&EPA
EPA's Environmental
Progress Report:
May 1992

                      Draft
                   for Discussion

             Strategies, Goals,
            and Environmental
                   Results
            STRATEGIC PUNNING & MANAGEMENT
              ENVIRONMENTAL
            GOAL

-------
                                                                            EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive  Summary

Introduction

Purpose of the Report
From the time of EPA's creation in 1972 until 1989, information on environmental conditions was either
not available, or not well enough organized, to measure the progress of most EPA programs. In re-
sponse to a challenge from the EPA Administrator in March of 1989, the Agency embarked on a new
approach of risk-based strategic planning. This new approach requires that strategic choices be made
to give priority attention to problems posing the greatest risks, and that efforts are made to set goals in
terms of the environmental accomplishments we hope to achieve, with progress being evaluated in
terms of environmental indicators that correspond to those goals. Establishing measurable environmen-
tal goals and adequate and reliable environmental indicators is vital to this new approach.
To meet this challenge the EPA has, with increased effort since 1989, endeavored to establish adequate
and reliable environmental indicators, identify environmental trends, measure program success, define
the nature of the challenges that lie ahead, and modify our approach to meet those challenges. This
report is a first effort to assess and present those environmental indicator results Agency-wide, and
where possible to relate the results to the goals and strategies the Agency has set forth.

Report Preparation
This report was coordinated and prepared by OPPE's Office of Strategic Planning and Environmental
Data (OPPE/OSPED). OSPED provided technical assistance to programs in obtaining and analyzing
indicator data, drafted summaries of program strategies and goals (based primarily on program strate-
gic plans), and drafted comparisons of indicator results to goals and strategies for program review. Indi-
cator data for this report were provided by headquarters programs and regional offices with lead for
geographic initiatives, as well as by external organizations, particularly other federal agencies.  Staff of
these programs and offices worked with OPPE to finalize the sections on strategies, goals, and  compari-
sons of indicator results to strategies.

Organization of the Report and Indicator Reliability

The report is organized by environmental problem area.  Within each area, each environmental  problem
addressed by an EPA program is discussed in terms of the current program goals and strategies, and
what data are available on the status or trends of environmental indicators. However, for reasons further
discussed in the Introduction of this report, adequate data have not yet been collected to establish
trends in all problem areas; therefore the depth of indicator analysis varies in this report as follows:
   1) For environmental problems where there are enough data to determine trends, indicator results are
     evaluated and compared to program goals and strategies.

   2) In cases where data provide a reliable indicator of current status, but is not adequate to indicate trends,
     the current data are provided to serve as a baseline for future evaluation of progress.

   3) In problem areas where data are not adequate to serve  as an indicator of current status, plans to
     obtain better data for future reporting and evaluation are discussed.

Even in problem areas for which indicators are reported here, for many programs improvements in data
quality and a longer reporting period will be needed before we can derive a truly satisfactory measure of
program results; in some cases the technical quality of the data from which indicators were derived was
far from ideal; other reporting offices noted incomplete or missing data. For those reasons, data quality
and relevance to program goals are discussed for each indicator provided, as well as program plans to
improve many existing indicators.

-------
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Highlights:   Overview of Available Environmental

Indicator Data

1. Environmental Problems for Which Indicator Trends are Reported
Inland Waters. Overall, indicators for inland waters reflect program success in reducing conventional
pollutants, with the exception of nitrates. The reduction of phosphorus levels is the most positive finding
in this area. Positive trends are also seen in fecal coliform and oxygen deficit reductions. For nitrates,
more locations reported deterioration than improvement in the early to mid-1980s. Sources of these in-
creased levels include nitrogen fertilizers, sewage and deposition of air nitogen from power plants and
cars. Indicator data show that average nitrate concentrations may now be levelling off, but are not yet
improving. Water quality trend data were inadequate to identify trends or status for toxics levels; how-
ever, available information on toxics indicates that there are hot spots in many areas.
Coastal Waters. In spite of increasing coastal populations, we have maintained levels of conventional
pollutants in most areas. The exception is the Gulf of Mexico, where increased efforts to control sewage
and runoff are needed. Data on toxic impacts are inadequate to assess status or trends.
Chesapeake Bay.  Indicators show that the Bay is responding to programs to reduce  nutrient levels, es-
pecially phosphorous. One fish species, the striped  bass, shows signs of recovery.  However, we also
conclude from data that further control of nitrogen inputs (air deposition, agriculture and sewage) are
needed to continue the positive trends. Physical habitat changes that interfere with fish migration also
need to be addressed.
Great Lakes. Remarkable progress has been made through successful point source  phosphorous con-
trols; however local problems remain. Though fish tissues show reduced levels of PCBs,  DDT, chlor-
dane and dieldrin (due to nationwide bans on production and use) widespread toxic contamination
problems persist. The program is now focusing on areas of high toxic levels and habitat destruction.
The problem of habitat destruction is at such an early stage of assessment that it has  yet to be well-char-
acterized.
Criteria Air Pollutants.  Decreases in lead levels are a major success story. Trends in  particulates are-
down, but they continue to pose health risks in some areas. Areas of high ozone concentration are a
top-priority problem; in many spots concentrations have stabilized rather than decreased. This is attrib-
uted to increased vehicle and energy use.
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion. While the U.S. has made a great deal of progress in reducing produc-
tion and emissions of CFCs, the most recent scientific evidence indicates that we and other nations still
must plan to do more if we are to prevent increases in skin cancer and other serious impacts of ozone
depletion.
Pesticides. In preparing information for this report, the Office of Pesticides Programs  staff analyzed us-
age data of some of the major pesticides to provide a baseline from which future patterns in substitution
of less toxic pesticides on major U.S. crops can be determined.  Usage data are already available from
Resources for the Future research efforts suggesting that for certain major crops, some substitution of
pesticides which are less toxic to human beings has  occurred in the past 10 years. However, it is impor-
tant to note that some of the newer pesticides have very high toxicity to wildlife, such as birds and
aquatic life, so that there may be a need for extra caution in tracking possible increases in adverse eco-
logical impacts from pesticide substitutions. In the near future we hope to combine these toxicity values
with exposure data in order to create both human and ecological risk indices. This emphasizes the need
to pay special attention to the trade-offs between potential ecological and human health effects when
one pesticide is replaced by another as a result of EPA's regulatory activities.
Lead. Indicators show large drops in lead throughout the environment. These improvements appear to
be primarily an outcome of the phaseout of leaded gasolines, which demonstrates the interconnections

ii

-------
                                                                           EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

between the air, land, water and living organisms. Nevertheless, residual lead in the environment, par-
ticularly deteriorative lead paint and in dust and soil, is responsible for high blood lead levels in very
large numbers of children.

2. Environmental Problems for Which Baselines are Being Established for
   the First Time
Hazardous Waste. This report presents for the first time an almost complete national status report of
indicators for waste minimization, safe management, and corrective action. Nationally complete data will
be available later this year.  In future years trends will be assessed based on OSW reports for the same
indicators.
Toxic Substances: 33/50 Program and Pollution Prevention.  A baseline of data is now being established
to allow future evaluation of this program's success.  Based on OTS reports, a good start has been
made, although for the program to meet the goal of successfully reducing toxics through voluntary in-
dustry efforts, higher participation and greater reduction commitments will be needed.
Superfund. Several indicators document numbers of sites at which specific types of progress were
made in the cumulative time period 1980 to 1989, plus the additional numbers of sites at which progress
was made in 1990.  Future data will be reported annually, so that year-by-year trends will be available.

3. Environmental Problems for Which Adequate Data are Not Yet Available
Air Toxics.  Data are inadequate to characterize the extent of the problem at present. OAR plans to be-
gin drawing upon data from EPA's Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) for an indicator of progress toward re-
ducing air toxics emissions. Though TRI data are neither considered complete nor very precise, quality
control efforts will increase their reliability as an indicator over the next several reporting years.  OAR
also plans to develop more complete data on emissions from mobile sources and fixed sources not re-
porting to TRI.

Ground Water. The Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water (OGWDW) is now pilot testing environ-
mental indicators at the state level.  There are exceptional difficulties in extrapolating ground water moni-
toring data beyond site-specific situations due to the expense of monitoring, and the inherent heteroge-
neity of the natural resource. It is not possible given reasonable expenditures to obtain a thorough snap-
shot of the quality of all the nation's ground water. Instead, OGWDW plans to draw on existing  informa-
tion from EPA programs, such as waste and pesticides programs, and other federal and state agencies,
to develop a composite picture of natural ground water status as it relates to human activities.
Toxic Substances: Existing Chemicals. A new index of toxic chemical releases, based on the Toxic
Release Inventory, is being developed this year. Based on results of peer review, results would be re-
portable in late 1992.
                                                                                         ill

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
INLAND SURFACE
WATER
Designated use support
in rivers and steams
Percent of river miles
affected by sources of
pollution
Designated use support
in lakes
Percent of lakes acres
affected by sources of
pollution
Conventional pollutant
trends

Data
Source


EPA/States


EPA/States

EPA/States

EPA/States


USGS


Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure















Emission/
Waste Amount















Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation


Lo/Hi

Lo/Hi


Lo/Hi

Lo/Hi


Hi/Mod


Body
Burden















Ultimate
Effects















Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only


X


X

X

X





Time Series
Trend
Improv.












X
(PO4 /sediment
/coliforms)
Frend Getting
Worse















No Sig.
Trend












X
(NO3)

* Based on indicator profile questionnaires prepared by data base managers for this report. "High" quality means no major known problems with accuracy, bias,
representativeness of named indicator variable, and other factors.  "Moderate" quality means some problems with such factors (as noted in indicator figures), but still
probably provides quantitatively accurate information. "Low" quality means useful, but only for qualitative comparisons. "Program applicability" refers to applicability
as an environmental indicator relevant to EPA's program.  High applicability means indicator is an environmental rather than activity-type measure, and is closely
related to EPA's programs.  NR means not rated.

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
COASTAL WATER
Designated use support
in estuaries
Sources of pollution-
estuaries
Total U.S. oyster harvest
Trends in classified
shellfish waters
Sources of pollution
affecting shellfish areas
EM AP Near Coastal
Demonstration Project
(Virginian Province)
• Rsh pathology
• Sediment toxicity
• Sediment metals
• Dissolved oxygen
• Marine Debris
Data
Source

EPA/States
EPA/States
NOAA
NOAA

NOAA
EPA



Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure











Emission/
Waste Amount











Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation

Lo/Hi
Lo/Hi

Lo/Mod





Hi/Mod
Hi/Mod
Body
Burden











Ultimate
Effects



Mod/Lo





Hi/Mod
Hi/Mod
Hi/Mod

Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only

X
X



X


X
X
X
X
X
Time Series
Trend
Improv.











Trend Getting
Worse



X







No Sig.
Trend





X





See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
WETLANDS
Recent status and
historical trends
Acres of wetland lost by
state -1970's to 1980's
DRINKING WATER
Water systems with MCL
violations (number of
systems, duration of
violations, and
population served)
GROUND WATER



Data
Source

USFWS
Dahl. 91
USFWS


EPA




No data
(indicators)
under
development
Type of Indicator and I Baseline or Time
Data Quality/Program Applicability* | Series = What is Trend?
Activity
Measure















Emission/
Waste Amount















Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation

Mod/Hi

Mod/Hi


Lo/Mod








Body
Burden















Ultimate
Effects

Mod/Hi

Mod/Hi











Baseline or
Snapshot
Only






X








Time Series
Trend
Improv.















Frend Getting
Worse

X


X










No Sig.
Trend















* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
SUPERFUND
Actions to reduce
immediate threats at
Superfund sites
NPL sites with progress
toward permanent
clean-up goals.
Increasing use of
treatment at NPL sites
Waste volumes managed
at Superfund sites
SOLID WASTE
Trends in municipal
solid waste generation
Data
Source

EPA


EPA


EPA

EPA


EPA

Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure







Hi/Lo






Emission/
Waste Amount









NR


Mod/Mod

Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation

Mod/Mod


Mod/Mod









Body
Burden














Ultimate
Effects

X


X









Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only









X




Time Series
Trend
Improv.

X"


X"


X






Trend Getting
Worse












Xgen.
increasing
No Sig.
Trend














* See page iv
** See executive summary text for explanation

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
SOLID WASTE Conf
Waste recovery for
recycling
Management trends
HAZARDOUS
WASTE
Hazardous Waste
generation
Hazardous
management
Status of facilities in
corrective action
UNDERGROUND
STORAGE TANKS
Tank closures
Data
Source
EPA
EPA


EPA

EPA

EPA



EPA
Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure












NR
Emission/
Waste Amount
Mod/Mod
Mod/Mod


NR"

NR"

Lo/Mod




Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradatbn













Body
Burden













Ultimate
Effects













Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only




X

X

X




Time Series
Trend
Improv.
X recycling
increasing











X
Trend Getting
Worse













No Sig.
Trend

X











* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
UNDERGROUND
STORAGE TANKS
Conf
Tank protected against
corrosion
Corrective action activity
PESTICIDES
Pesticide in Ground
Water Database
Food Safety
• Pest usage data
1988-1989
• Pest usage trend
analysis
1966-1989
Ecological Effects
• Ecotoxic'rty Indices

Data
Source



EPA

EPA

OPP


Doane
Marketing, Inc.
RFF&USEWt


OPP


Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure



NR














Emission/
Waste Amount





NR





Mod/Mod
Mod/Mod





Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation







NR










Body
Burden


















Ultimate
Effects















Lo/Hi
(Ecotox
mod)
Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only



X



X



X




X

Time Series
Trend
Improv.





X







X




Trend Getting
Worse


















No Sig.
Trend








X


X




X

* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
PESTICIDES Cont'
Worker Exposure
Poison control center
analysis
Parathfon poisoning
EXISTING
CHEMICALS


LEAD
Lead in air
Lead in fish tissue
Lead intakes in food
Data
Source
Poison Control
Center Data
State of Calif.

No data
(indicators
under
development)

EPA
USFWS
HHS/FDA
Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure
Mod/Lo










Emission/
Waste Amount











Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation








Hi/Mod

Mod/Hi
Body
Burden









Hi/Hi

Ultimate
Effects


Mod/Hi








Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only
X










Time Series
Trend
Improv.








X
X
X
Trend Getting
Worse


X








No Sig.
Trend
X










* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
LEAD Cent-
Average human blood
lead levels
Elevated blood lead in
children.
STRAT. OZONE
CFC production
Ozone levels
Human cancers
GLOBAL WARMING
CO2 emissions
Methane emissions
Atmosphere C02

Data
Source


HHS/CDC
HHS/ATSDR


EPA
Academia
PMS/CDC

EPA
EPA
Academia
NOAA
Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure














Emission/
Waste Amoun






Hi/Hi



NR/Hi
NR/Hi


Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation







NR/Hi




NR/Hi

Body
Burden

Mod/Hi

Mod/Hi










Ultimate
Effects








NR/Hi





Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only














Time Series
Trend
Improv.


X
X



X






Trend Getting
Worse






X

X

X
X
X

No Sig.
Trend














* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
CRITERIA AIR
POLLUTANTS
Ozone ambient
Ozone non-attainment
Ozone emissions
CO ambient
CO emissions
Particulates ambient
Particulates emissions
SO2 - ambient
SOX emissions
N02 ambient
NOX emissions
Data
Source


EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
Type of Indicator and 1 Baseline or Time
Data Quality/Program Applicability* | Series = What is Trend?
Activity
Measure













Emission/
Waste Amount




Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi
Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation


Hi/Hi
Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi

Body
Burden













Ultimate
Effects













Baseline or
Snapshot
Only













Time Series
Trend
Improv.





X
X


X
X
X
X
Trend Getting
Worse













No Sig.
Trend


X
X
X


X
X




* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
CRITERIA AIR
POLLUTANTS Conf
Lead ambient
Lead emissions
AIR TOXICS
TRI emissions
ACID DEPOSITION
Sulfate deposition
Surface water acidity
Visibility
Inferred terrestrial
impacts
RADON
Radon in homes
Data
Source


EPA
EPA

EPA

NAPAP
NAPAP
NAPAP
NAPAP


EPA
Type of Indicator and 1 Baseline or Time
Data Quality/Program Applicability* | Series = What is Trend?
Activity
Measure














Emission/
Waste Amount



Hi/Hi

NR








Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation


Hi/Hi




Mod/Hi
Hi/Hi

Lo/Mod


NR
Body
Burden














Ultimate
Effects









Mod/Hi




Baseline or
Snapshot
Only





X

X
X
X
X



Time Series
Trend
Improv.


X
X









X
Trend Getting
Worse














No Sig.
Trend














* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
GREAT LAKES
Phosphorus
concentrations
Oxygen depletion in
Lake En'e
Phosphorus loads to
Lake Erie
Toxics in fish tissue

Areas of concern
Zebra mussel infestation
Wetlands acreage
Data
Source

EPA

EPA

EPA

EPA

EPA
EPA
USFWS
Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure









NR


Emission/
Waste Amount





Hi/Hi






Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation

Hi/Hi

Hi/Hi






NR
NR
Body
Burden







Hi/Hi




Ultimate
Effects












Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only









X


Time Series
Trend
Improv.

1970-1991



1970-1989

most lakes
most chem.



Frend Getting
Worse










X
X
No Sig.
Trend

1980s

X

1980s






* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
CHESAPEAKE BAY
Phosphorus in Bay
Nitrogen in Bay
P toads/pt. sources
N toads/pt. sources
Ptoads/NPS
N toads/NPS
1985 N&P sources
Dissolved oxygen in
Chesapeake Bay
Submerged aquatic
vegetation in Bay
Data
Source

EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
Type of Indicator and I Baseline or Time
Data Quality/Program Applicability* | Series = What is Trend?
Activity
Measure










Emission/
Waste Amoun



Mod/Mod
Mod/Mod
Lo/Mod
Lo/Mod
NR


Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation

Hi/Hi
Hi/Hi





Mod/Hi
Mod/Hi
Body
Burden










Ultimate
Effects










Baseline or
Snapshot
Only







X


Time Series
Trend
Improv.

X

X

X
X


X
Trend Getting
Worse










No Sig.
Trend


X

X



X

* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
CHESAPEAKE BAY
Cent'
Rsh populations
(harvests)
Striped bass juvenile
index

Stream miles opened to
migratory fish
GULF of MEXICO
Classified Shellfish
Waters
Paper Industry TRI
Petrochemical industry
TRI releases
Data
Source


EPA

EPA


EPA







Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure















Emission/
Waste Amount















Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation







Hi/Lo


Lo/NR

Mod/NR
Mod/NR

Body
Burden















Ultimate
Effects


Mod/Hi

Mod/Hi










Baseline or Time
Series = What is Trend?
Baseline or
Snapshot
Only















Time Series
Trend
Improv.


mostly

long-term
decline,
recent improv
X







rrend Getting
Worse















No Sig.
Trend















* See page iv

-------
PROBLEM AREA/
Indicator
HABITAT
ALTERATION
Freshwater fish decline

Neotropical songbirds
Ducks
Forests (New England)
Coral
Data
Source


Amer. Fisherie
Society
USFWS
USFWS
EMAP
Academia
Type of Indicator and
Data Quality/Program Applicability*
Activity
Measure








Emission/
Waste Amoun








Amb. Pollution
or Habitat
Degradation








Body
Burden








Ultimate
Effects


Lo/Hi

Mod/Mod
Mod/Mod
NR
NR
Baseline or Time
Series - What is Trend?
Baseline o
Snapshot
Only






X
X
Time Series
Trend
Improv.








Trend Getting
Worse


X

X
X


No Sig.
Trend








     * See page iv
I

-------
                                                                                    PREFACE
Development of this Report
This past fall OPPE was asked by the Deputy Administrator to assemble a report on the progress of
Agency programs at developing environmental indicators and assessing the links between that informa-
tion and EPA's environmental goals and strategies. The following progress report is the product of this
relatively short, intensive effort to document and assemble available indicator information. The report
should serve primarily as the basis for "taking stock" of EPA's efforts and renewing the Agency's commit-
ment to using environmental indicators to assess progress towards measurable environmental goals. It
is intended mainly as an internal working document, not as a source of public information.
The report provides a variety of insights regarding the direction of EPA's programs. In some cases, indi-
cators of the status and trends of environmental problems support the present emphasis of national pro-
grams. In other cases, the data suggest a need to reevaluate our actions. Furthermore, the very pro-
cess of developing this report has been beneficial. Many of the staff and managers throughout the
Agency who participated in assembling the report have gained a sense of enthusiasm toward docu-
menting the progress of their programs.  It is hoped that EPA managers and staff will continue to meet
with the same enthusiasm future challenges to improve and use environmental indicators as a central
management tool.

Follow Up to this Report

The ultimate success of this report depends on the Agency's commitment to using indicators to inform
management decisions. OPPE believes the report itself can facilitate a transition from the largely devel-
opmental efforts of the past to a more active use of indicators by our programs.  In the short term, pro-
grams are encouraged to use the insights from this report to support their Fiscal Year 1994 Action Plans
and budget proposals. In the longer term, however, the Agency must respond to the documented need
for taking better aim at the environmental problems we manage through improvements in environmental
goals and strategies.
To take full advantage of the opportunity presented by this report, the Deputy Administrator will convene
a management advisory group on environmental goals and indicators, composed of senior representa-
tives of program, support and regional offices. The advisory group will:
  •  Review the content of this report to assess strengths, weaknesses and opportunities for improving
     environmental indicators as a management tool;
  •  Evaluate the Agency's present institutional capacity for developing measurable environmental
     goals, and indicators to evaluate progress towards those goals; and
  •  Based on the information that is available, begin to make recommendations on environmental
     trends that need to be addressed, and on opportunities to focus resources for continued develop-
     ment of our environmental data bases.
This report represents an important milestone in our continuing efforts to improve the Agency's manage-
ment systems. OPPE welcomes your thoughts on all aspects of this progress report and looks forward to
working with you in the next year to improve the Agency's use of environmental indicators.
                                                                                       xvfjf

-------
                         Table of Contents
I.   Introduction

II.  Off ice of Water

Inland Surface Water[[[If-1
Problem Definition	11-2
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	H-3
Environmental Indicator Results	11-3
   Rivers and Streams	11-3
   Lakes and Reservoirs	11-12
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	11-14
Estuaries and Coastal Waters[[[IM6
Problem Definition	H-16
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	11-16-11-17
Environmental Indicator Results	H-17
   Estuaries and Coastal Waters	H-17
   Shellfish Conditions and Trends	11-19
   The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program: Near Coastal Pilot	II-24
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	II-29
Wetlands	....	.	11-31
Problem Definition	11-31
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	11-31
Environmental Indicator Results	II-32
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	II-33
Drinking Water...	...	„	.	..	.	..	.	11-36
Problem Definition	11-36
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	11-36-11-37
Environmental Indicator Results	11-37
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	11-41
Ground Water....................	..	„	....	....................11-42
Problem Definition	11-42
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	11-42
Proposed Environmental Indicators	11-43
III. Office of Solid Waste and Emergency
     Response
Superfund/Abandoned Sifcs«

-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Environmental Indicator Results	111-2
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	111-8
Municipal Waste	111-9
Problem Definition	111-9
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	111-9
Environmental Indicator Results	111-10
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	111-14
Hazardous Waste	111-15
Problem Definition	111-15
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	111-15
Environmental indicator Results	111-16
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	III-23
Underground Storage Tanks....................................	 If1-24
Problem Definition	111-24
Strategies	111-24
Environmental Indicator Results	111-25
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	111-27


IV, Office  of Pesticides and Toxic Substances

Problem Definition	IV-1
Background Data Relevant to Multiple Strategies:  Pesticides in
Ground Water Database	IV-2
Pesticides:  Food Safety[[[IV-7
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	IV-7
Environmental Indicator Results:
   Pesticide Usage Tracking, 1988 and 1989	IV-8
   Pesticide Usage Trends Analysis,  1966 to 1989	IV-13
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	IV-19
Pesticides:  Ecological Effects[[[ IV-20
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	IV-20
Environmental Indicator Results	IV-20
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	IV-27
Pesticides:  Worker Protection[[[ IV-28
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	IV-28
Environmental Indicator Results:  Pesticide Poisoning Case Study	IV-28
Environmental Indicator Results:  Poison Control Center Data	,	IV-31
Conclusion: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	IV-34

-------
                                                                    TABLE OF CONTENTS

Toxic Substances:  Lead
Environmental Trends	IV-41
EPA's Lead Strategy	IV-44
Evaluation of Progress	IV-44

V.  Office of Air and Radiation

Stratospheric Ozone[[[ V-1
Problem Definition	V-1
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	V-1
Environmental Indicator Results	V-2
Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	V-8
Climate Change..-.	V-9
Problem Definition	V-9
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	V-9
Environmental Indicator Results	V-10
Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	V-10
Criteria Air Pollutants and Acid Deposition	................. V-13
Problem Definition	V-13-V-14
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	V-13-V-14
Environmental Indicator Results	V-15
   Population Estimates for Counties Not Meeting NAAQS, 1990	V-16
   Trends in Ozone	V-17
   Areas Designated Nonattainment for Ozone	V-17
   Other NAAQS Attainment	V-20-V-27
   Acid Deposition Monitoring	V-28
   Surface Water Acidification	V-29
   Visibility Impacts of Sulfate Emissions	V-30
   Terrestrial Impacts of Acid Deposition	V-31
Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	V-32
Air Toxics.......................„....„...„„„„„„„„„„.„„„„„„„.„„„„„„„„„„„„.„. V-33
Problem Definition	V-33
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	V-33
Environmental Indicator Results	!!.'."]]!!!]!!.'."!!!!!].".'!!!!!!!".!..]!...!.!...."!	V-34
Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies and Objectives	V-34
Indoor Radon ................„.„„.„„„„„„„„„„„.„„„„„,„.„.„...,..„..„„„„„.„„.. V-36
Problem Definition	,	"	V-36
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	.'.'.'."!!".'."!."]!!].'.'.".'!!!!"].'.'."!	V-36
Environmental Indicator Results	V-37

-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS

 VI. Geographic Initiatives

Great Lakes[[[ W-f
Environmental Trends	VI-1
Strategy	VI-5
Progress Evaluation	VI-8
Chesapeake Bay[[[ VI-10
Environmental Trends	VI-10
Strategy	VI-10
Progress Evaluation	VI-16
Guff of Mexico.....	.	.	.	VI-17
Introduction	VI-17
Goals, Objectives, and Strategy	VI-17
Environmental Indicators	VI-17

VII. Cross Program Initiative

Biodiversity and Habitat Alteration .—..............—.............—..—.....	VII-1
Problem Definition	VII-1
Goals, Objectives, and Strategies	:	VII-1
Environmental Indicator Results	VII-2
   Declines in North American Duck Populations	VII-2
   Declines in North American Migrant Bird Species	VII-7
   North American Fish Extinctions and Declines	VII-11
   Conditions in Coral Reef Communities Worldwide	VII-17

-------
                     Acknowledgments

The successful completion of this progress report is owed to the contributions of many
individuals and offices. While it is not possible to acknowledge each individual
contribution, acknowledgment is due to staff of the EPA Offices of Water; Air and
Radiation Programs; Solid Waste and Emergency Response; Prevention, Pesticides and
Toxic Substances; and Policy, Planning and Evaluation; EPA Region III; EPA Region IV;
EPA Region V; the EPA Great Lakes National Program Office; the USGS Water Resources
Division; the NOAA Office of Oceanography and Marine Assessments; and the U.S. Fish
and Wildlife Service Office of Migratory Bird Management. Special recognition is due to
the support contractor, VfGYAN Incorporated, for persevering within a tight schedule to
produce a quality report.

-------
                                                                                INTRODUCTION

Introduction

Indicators and EPA's Strategic Vision
Efforts of the past year have added valuable clarity to EPA's strategic vision. The Agency developed a
Strategic Direction Statement, which establishes systematic environmental risk reduction as the principal
measure of EPA's success. Ten strategic themes now provide a common language for discussing ways
of energizing the Agency's statutory programs. The strategic planning efforts of media, support and
regional offices are forging environmental goals as the basis for a partnership between career managers
and staff. The Agency-wide Strategic Plan is reaching out to Congress and other key constituencies.
Finally, the strategic vision has made quality the embodiment of EPA's core values.
A quality organization strives to manage based on factual information. Nowhere is the importance of
managing based on factual information more evident than in our continuing efforts to develop and use
environmental indicators. Few people would dispute the value of EPA's strategic vision as a catalyst for
institutional progress. But for all of us the questions remain:
  •  Has innovation resulted in demonstrable risk reduction?
  •  How well does institutional progress translate into environmental progress?
  •  Is environmental progress mainly subjective, or can EPA measure and communicate it to the public?
Environmental indicators can provide answers to these questions. Indicators, moreover,  represent the
factual basis upon which EPA must continually question its motives and successes. Such a process of
self-examination is vitally important to EPA's long-term institutional growth and awareness.
Administrator Reilly spoke of the practical need for environmental indicators when, shortly after his arrival
at EPA, he said: "I believe EPA has made tremendous progress cleaning up the environment, but I can't
prove it." The importance of being able to show proof of EPA's effective stewardship of the environment
will only grow in the future. It is safe to say that the environment will continue to be a central domestic
issue for the American public. But the federal budget deficit demands that all government agencies
clearly identify the taxpayer's return on investment.  By meeting this agency need, environmental indica-
tors can play a key role in building the political support and understanding that will sustain EPA's strate-
gic vision in the years ahead.

Purpose of this Report

This progress report on environmental indicators was developed to achieve the following purposes:
  1. To report the status of our continuing efforts throughout EPA to develop indicators of program
     progress toward environmental improvement.
  2. To place the indicators presently being developed and used by programs into a context of related
     strategic planning goals and strategies for environmental improvement.
  3. To report, within the limits of available indicator data quality, the status and trends of environmental
     problems we manage.
  4. To kick off a high-level process of review and advice involving senior managers to identify opportu-
     nities for improved indicator development, interpretation and use.

A Framework for Environmental Indicators
The word "indicator" refers to a wide range of information collected to support the efforts of environmen-
tal programs implemented by EPA, states and other federal agencies. There are four main kinds of indi-
cators as shown in Figure 1. The first and most common kind records activities undertaken by the pro-
grams themselves. Examples of such activity measures include the number and type of  permitting, in-
spection and enforcement actions taken. A second kind of indicator records releases, or loadings, of

                                                                                        f-f

-------
 INTRODUCTION

 pollutants into the environment. Examples include the Toxics Release Inventory and NPDES discharge
 limits. A third kind of indicator, ambient pollutant levels, records conditions in the environment that may
 be caused by pollutant releases and that may contribute to adverse environmental effects.  Examples
 include air and water quality information. The fourth kind of indicator, environmental effects information,
 records human health effects and ecological damage. Examples of environmental effects information
 include: cases of respiratory illnesses associated with air pollution; population estimates for a threatened
 or endangered species; and estimates of the rate of species extinctions as a surrogate for overall eco-
 system health.
 While only environmental effects represent true environmental indicators, the latter three of the four types
 of measures described above are included in this report as environmental indicators. However, all four
 kinds of measures, including activity measures, play important roles in our efforts to measure progress
 toward achieving environmental improvement. Indicators of human activities - whether they be the ac-
 tions of a polluter or those of EPA to control the polluter - record the believed causes of environmental
 impairment and our response to them. When carefully chosen, indicators of human activity can provide
 practical targets for environmental programs and visible evidence of progress. Indicators of environ-
 mental conditions - whether ambient pollutant levels or environmental damages - record the environ-
 mental values we are trying to protect and impacts we are trying to prevent or reverse.
 The challenge of environmental indicators is to combine indicators of human activities and indicators of
 environmental conditions into a system that links measures of institutional progress as closely as pos-
 sible with measures of environmental progress.

 Environmental Problems, Goals, Strategies and Indicators

 This progress report is organized to emphasize the important relationships among the following:
   •  environmental problems and natural resources, as the targets of EPA's programs;

   •  strategic planning goals and objectives, as statements of the environmental improvement we strive
     through our programs to achieve;
   •  strategies detailing how programs are intended to reach their stated goals and objectives; and
   •  indicators of progress.
 Environmental Problems and Natural Resources. This progress report is organized, at its most general
 level, into discussions relating to environmental problems or natural resources. The environmental prob-
 lems are defined in terms generally consistent with those used to report the results of comparative risk
 studies conducted for national programs (Unfinished Business and Reducing Risk), as well as the com-
 parative risk studies conducted by each of EPA's ten regional offices.
 The data on natural resources in the Chesapeake Bay and Great Lakes offer two examples of how strate-
 gic planning is being used to coordinate EPA's efforts to protect specific geographic areas.  These ex-
 amples were chosen because they are among well-known efforts at geographic targeting. They also
were chosen because some indicator information was available for them. Other important geographic
targeting initiatives undertaken by EPA's regions will be included in future such progress reports.
 Environmental Problem Profile.  Information is presented in a box at the beginning of each problem area
 section on the results relevant to that problem area from several comparative risk studies. Unfinished
 Business: A Comparative Assessment of Environmental Problems was prepared by EPA in 1987 and
 compares the relative risks of environmental problems in terms of human health, ecological, and welfare
 risks.  Reducing Risk: Setting Priorities and Strategies for Environmental Protection (1990) presents the
 results of an independent review that EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) conducted of the "Unfinished
 Business" results,  together with  the SAB's own recommendations for reducing risk.  Regional compara-
tive risk studies were undertaken by EPA's regional offices between 1989 and 1991 and rank the relative
 risks of environmental problems in each region.
l-ll

-------
      Figure 1. CONTINUUM OF MEASURES OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS
    Activity Measures

^.j^jSSSSS*******^^
                                                              Environmental Indicators
                                     ^^S^SSSSSSSSSSW^^

                                                 \v*f\\*f±r\t t*\f4tf\f*tf+.*t\                         f*\!M.M* lM.«Ji.M.*«*«*.t««    ^
                                                Indirect Indicators
                                                                                         Direct Indicators
y//////////////f
1
I
1
Y/////////
\


Actions by

i
examples:
revise SIP,
issue permit,
issue grant


Actions by
"^ Sources
t
i
examples:
install control
equipment, change
feedstock

II
v5s
11'
1
A
* Quantified
Pollution
Prevention
Measures
f
Emission/
Discharge
Quantities
i
i
Risk Estimates
Based on
Emissions Data
^sxsisssms^^
                                   ^^S*SS*««!S}5$«*^^


Ambient
Concentrations

i


Risk Estimates
Based on
Ambient Data

















Uptake/
Body Burden

i
i

Risk Estimates
Based on
Body BurdenData
* 	 ^ 1
-r ^> Health Fffeotf; ^





, 	 J
      Managing for Environmental Results. Data to the right are closer to the "adverse ultimate impacts of pollution" that
      the States and EPA are charged with preventing or mitigating. All else being equal, data further to the right
      are better indicators of environmental result than data further to the left.
      Emphasizing Pollution Prevention. Pollution prevention should result in the same kinds of environmental
      improvements as all Agency programs, so all these indicator types may reflect pollution prevention successes.
      However, to demonstrate that the results are due to pollution prevention, data would be needed on the box
      marked with a *.

-------
                                                                                 INTRODUCTION

Also presented in the box beginning each problem area section is a summary of the findings of the 1988
and 1990 Roper polls of public perceptions of environmental risk facing Americans. Finally, there is a
brief listing of some of the recent agency initiatives related to the problem area.
Strategic Planning Goals. Objectives and Strategies. Descriptions of strategic planning goals and strat-
egies are presented for most of the environmental problems and natural resources included in the re-
port. The descriptions are taken from the strategic plans developed by program and regional offices,
and special geographic programs. For some environmental problems, however, goals and strategies
were not presented in the strategic plans. If goals and strategies were not presented, but significant
activities were under way, program staff were asked to supply additional goal and strategy descriptions
for the report. Nevertheless, a few environmental problems - most notably global climate change and
habitat destruction - do not as yet have clearly stated goals and strategies. Activity measures are in-
cluded only where a program reported them as surrogates for environmental indicators.  This was usu-
ally in cases where a program had no environmental indicators to report or had none in development for
reporting in the near term.
Activity measures are included only where a program reported them as surrogates for environmental
indicators. This was usually in cases where a program had no environmental indicators to report or had
none in development for reporting in the near term.
Environmental Indicators.  Indicators of progress presented are, to the extent possible, those the pro-
grams have chosen to  develop and use.  In most cases, the programs themselves were the source of
indicator data and interpretation. In  a few cases, however, the report includes indicators beyond those
being developed by programs, because the information enhances our understanding of program
progress.  Activity measures are included only where a program reported them as surrogates for envi-
ronmental indicators. This was usually in cases where a program had no environmental indicators to
report or had none in development for reporting in the near term.

Indicator Data Completeness and Quality

A primary goal of this report is to encourage a process of indicator review, discussion and improvement.
The report should help to determine  what available indicators can tell us about program progress and,
as importantly, what they cannot tell  us. The report, therefore, intentionally includes information of widely
varied completeness and quality.  An effort  has been made to the extent possible, given time con-
straints, to evaluate and document the strengths and weaknesses in indicator data.
Assessments of data completeness and quality are reported using a simple pilot classification system.
The classification of indicator data was based on detailed data profiles developed for each indicator
used in this report (see AppendixA for indicator profile questions).  There is an inevitable trade-off, how-
ever, between the simplicity of a classification system and its comprehensiveness in conveying the many
important attributes of data quality. OPPE will use the comments received on this report to revise the
pilot classification system to find the proper balance to meet the needs of indicator users.

Discussion Issues

This progress report places environmental indicators into their intended context of environmental prob-
lems, goals and strategies. This presentation of information highlights the opportunities for strengthen-
ing the linkages between indicators and the other elements of strategic plans. Efforts to improve those
linkages should be guided by following questions:
  •  How can our strategic planning goals be expressed more closely in terms of improvement in  envi-
     ronmental problems?
  • Are the key activities and results clear from the descriptions of program strategies?
  •  Do indicators measure progress toward completing key activities, achieving environmental goals,
     or other important results?

                                                                                       I-IV

-------
II. Office of Water
                 Inland Surface Waters:  Point Sources

  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                    Human Health      Ecological      Welfare
      Unfinished Business Report         Low, cancer       High           High
                                    Low, non-cancer

      SAB Reducing Risk Report          NR              Medium        Medium

      Regional Comparative Risk          -               -             -

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                    1988             1990
      From Industrial Waste              High             High
      From Sewage Plants               Medium          Medium

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

       33/50 Project             • Pollution Prevention          • Caribbean
       Chesapeake Bay          • Great Lakes                • Gulf of Mexico
       Mexican Border           • Multimedia Enforcement      • Indian Programs
       Federal Facilities          • Ground Water              • Paper & Pulp Cluster
       Clean Water Act
               Inland Surface Waters:  Nonpoint Sources

  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                    Human Health     Ecological      Welfare
      Unfinished Business Report         Low, cancer      High          High
                                    Medium, non-cancer

      SAB Reducing Risk Report          NR             High-Low       High-Low

      Regional Comparative Risk          Med-High-Med   High

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                    1988            1990
      From Urban Runoff               Med-Low         Med-Low
      From Agricultural Runoff            Med-High        Medium

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

      • Agricultural Sector         • Pollution Prevention Leg.      • Ground Water
      • Geographic Initiatives (all)   • Clean Water Act
                                                                              II- 1

-------
INLAND SURFACE WATERS

Problem Definition

Threats to lakes, rivers and streams are characterized as point or nonpoint in origin. Point source dis-
charges include industrial and municipal effluent; pollutants of concern include total suspended solids;
BOD; toxic organics and inorganics and thermal pollutants. Nonpoint sources include runoff from agri-
cultural, urban, industrial, and silvicultural lands; surface discharge of septic tanks; contaminated sedi-
ments; acid deposition; solid waste disposal; hazardous waste sites; and pesticide runoff.

Inland Surface Waters -  Lakes, Rivers and Streams

Goals/Objectives
In the Office of Water's FY1993 -1996 Strategic Plan, it is the goal to restore, protect, and enhance the
natural values and functions of the nation's lakes, rivers and streams as sustainable ecological systems,
recreational resources, and sources of drinking water and food supply.
Specific objectives in the OW Strategic Plan include:  1) through the Watershed Initiative, protect critical
habitat and ensure a healthy community structure of indigenous species in targeted lakes, rivers and
streams;  2) reduce the number of lake and reservoir acres threatened or impaired by harmful pollutants
from point and nonpoint sources in targeted lakes; 3) eliminate sediment contamination for point and
nonpoint sources; 4) reduce by 50% the releases of selected toxic pollutants from industries on the
Great Lakes; 5) eliminate the discharge of selected, highly persistent bioaccumulative pollutants cur-
rently in use; 6) eliminate all known impairments to river/stream sediments due to point source dis-
charges of toxic pollutants, ammonia, chlorine, and whole effluent toxicity; 7) reduce the threats or im-
pairments to targeted watersheds as a result of agricultural nonpoint source runoff, or by flow contribu-
tors from contaminated ground water; and 8) protect existing aquatic ecosystems and drinking water
supply sources by minimizing demand for new sources of water.

Strategies
Strategies to achieve the goal and objectives emphasize the strategic use of statutory authority com-
bined with the development of more comprehensive approaches to ecological resource management,
the institutionalization of pollution prevention and multi-media management approaches, and assistance
to state and local level officials in achieving greater resource protection.
Key directions necessary to achieve the eight strategic planning objectives are identified in the OW Stra-
tegic Plan. Selected highlights, corresponding to the objectives above, include: 1) Coordinate surface
water programs to engage the appropriate mix of tools (regulatory, non-regulatory, enforcement, techni-
cal assistance, etc.) to solve the unique problems of individual ecosystems. 2) Reduce risk from con-
taminated stormwater runoff by combining the point source permitting and enforcement and nonpoint
source management techniques; implement NPDES stormwater permitting requirements and permitting
strategy for municipalities and industrial activity; promote nonpoint source techniques to prepare local
governments for compliance with new regulations to establish stormwater management plans in the
large and medium-sized municipal areas; target other stormwater nonpoint source (NPS) prevention
measures to high priority lakes based on problems identified in NPS and Clean Lakes assessments. 3)
Improve scientific and managerial knowledge of contaminated in-place sediments; develop sediment
quality criteria for metals, PCBs, PAHs and biological toxicity.  Develop low-cost methodologies to re-
store impaired lakes; work with state and regional authorities to put in place sediment quality-based per-
mit limits for point sources and sediment quality-based loading targets for nonpoint sources. 4) Imple-
ment pollution prevention through a combination of regulatory approaches, economic incentives, and
public education strategies. 5) Identify a core list of highly persistent, bioaccumulative pollutants tar-
geted for zero discharge, working in concert with the pollution prevention strategy and utilizing sources
such as the Pollutant Ranking System. 6) Promulgate new technology-based standards for industries

11-2

-------
                                                                       INLAND SURFACE WATERS

that significantly threaten water quality.  7) Implement conservation measures and improve water man-
agement techniques to ensure sustainability and renewability of water resources.

Environmental Indicator Results

There are two categories of water quality indicators. The first type are measures of actual physical,
chemical, and biological conditions, such as measures of individual water quality constituents. The sec-
ond type are more aggregate or summary measures of water quality conditions, such as the degree to
which waters meet the uses assigned by states. It may be based on a combination of physical, chemi-
cal, and biological data. This section contains data on both types of measures, and the Office of Water's
strategic plan includes goals to improve both types of measures.

Rivers and Streams

Degree of Designated Use Support
Designated use support is the standard measure of water quality reported by states.  It refers to the de-
gree to which waters support the uses for which states designate them, such as high-quality cold water
fishery, contact recreation, or drinking water supply. This information is reported by states in their Sec-
tion 305(b) reports.
In their 1990 State Section 305(b) reports, 51 states, territories, jurisdictions, and interstate commerce
commissions (hereafter referred to as states) provided use support information for rivers and streams.
These states assessed a total of approximately 630,000 river miles, 121,000 more than were assessed in
1988. These miles represent 36% of the nation's estimated 1.8 million stream miles.
Of those assessed waters, approximately 400,000 miles (63%) were found to be fully supporting their
designated uses (Figure 1). An additional 40,000 miles (6%) were identified as threatened waters that
currently support their designated uses but could soon become impaired if pollution control actions were
not taken. Twenty-one percent of assessed waters, or about 130,000 miles, were reported as partially
supporting uses, and 60,000 stream miles were reported as not supporting uses.
Despite the increase in number of waters assessed, the Section 305(b) assessment and reporting pro-
cess has its limitations. First of all, differences among states preclude comparisons.  States have
adopted different water quality criteria, water quality standards, and assessment methodologies, and
state capabilities to monitor water quality, fish tissue, and biological integrity also vary. Furthermore,
assessment methods and criteria may change within a given state over time, and states may assess
different waterbodies from year to year. Thus the information is only a "snapshot" of water quality condi-
tions and cannot be compared with previous years.
Causes and Sources of Impairment

In their 1990 State Section 305(b) reports, 47 states provided information on the causes of impairment in
waters not fully supporting uses, while 42 states provided information on the various sources of pollution
contributing to use impairment. As any given stream mile can be affected by many different causes, a
single river mile affected by multiple causes is counted under several categories.  Likewise, river miles
affected by multiple sources are counted under several source categories.
Siltation, the smothering of stream beds by sediments (usually from accelerated soil erosion), is the most
commonly reported  cause of nonsupport in the nation's rivers and streams, affecting 36% of impaired
river miles.  Nutrients affect 28% of impaired river miles and most often consist of phosphorus and nitro-
gen compounds such as those used in agricultural fertilizers. Both siltation and nutrients are predomi-
nantly from diffuse nonpoint sources. Organic enrichment/low dissolved oxygen, affecting 26% of im-
paired waters, may be linked to sewage treatment plants and feedlots. Pathogen contamination, affect-
ing 19% of impaired waters, may impair drinking water and contact recreation uses and may come,


                                                                                      11-3

-------
INLAND SURFACE WATERS
Figure  1.   Designated Use Support in the Nation's Assessed Rivers

                         130,000   60,000
                  40,000
                                                            J Fully Supporting


                                                          |^] Threatened


                                                            | Partially Supporting


                                                          01 Not Supporting


                                                          • Unassessed
                                                         * Estimate of total river miles (1.8 million miles)
                                                          based on State-Reported Information in America's
                                                          Clean Water, the States' Nonpoint Source
                                                          Assessment, ASIWPCA,  1985.
                           River Miles
          (Values rounded to nearest 10,000 or 100,000 miles)
                  Data quality; Useful to describe relative proportions; not at
                  all precise, due to state sampling differences.

                  Relevance to EPA program;  Very relevant to CWA goals.
Source:  National Water Quality Inventory, 1990 Report to Congress.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991


among other things, from inadequately treated sewage or runoff from pastures, feedlots, and urban ar-
eas. Other causes of impairment are metals (such as lead, copper, and mercury), salinity, habitat modi-
fication, pesticides, suspended solids, and flow alteration.

The most extensive source of pollution reported by states for the nation's rivers is agricultural runoff,
which affects 60% (103,439 miles) of the impaired river miles (Figure 2). Other extensive sources in-
clude municipal dischargers, affecting 16%; hydrologic/habitat modification, affecting 15%; resource
extraction, affecting 14%; storm sewers, affecting 11%; and industrial dischargers and silviculture, each
affecting about 9% of impaired river miles.
II -4

-------
                                                                       INLAND SURFACE WATERS
Figure 2.  Percent of Impaired River Miles Affected by Sources of
             Pollution

Agriculture is the most extensive source of pollution states report for the nation's rivers.

             Pollution Sources

                  Agriculture

                  Municipal
                 Hydrotogic/
            Habitat Modification

            Resource Extraction


           Storm Sewers/Runoff


                   Industrial


                 Silviculture


                Construction
Source: National Water Quality Inventory, 1990 Report to Congress.
Data quality! Useful to
describe relative propor-
tions; not at all precise,
due to state sampling
differences.

Rejevanee to EPA pro-
gram! Very relevant to
CWA goals.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

Water Quality Trends at  National  USGS Stations

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has been collecting water quality data from the nation's
rivers and streams for decades. A number of national sampling networks have been established to better
understand natural changes in hydrological characteristics, anthropogenic influences in the aquatic environ-
ment, and water quality trends and their relationship to upstream land and water use. Every two years
USGS publishes a document entitled The National Water Summary which examines different aspects of
the nation's hydrology.
Information presented in Rgure 3a- e is a compilation of data from a number of USGS networks, indi-
vidual USGS/state projects, and other special projects (USGS Open-Hie Report 92-70). The data repre-
sent over 400 sampling stations located at the downstream end of watersheds (hydrologic accounting
units) across the nation. Statistical analyses have been conducted by USGS to ensure the sampling
stations are nationally representative of waters at the downstream end of watersheds.
A broad range of parameters are collected at USGS water monitoring stations including: suspended
sediments, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, toxic substances, metals, bacteria, and physical characteristics
such as stream flow, basin characteristics, and land use. The data presented here are limited to con-
ventional pollutants during the time period 1980 to 1989. Note also that these trends were accompanied
by a nationwide increase in population of almost 10% between 1980 and 1990.
Figure 3a. Suspended Sediments (SS):  There is a slight downward trend in the fraction of stations ex-
          ceeding SS concentrations of 10Omg/L, especially in the latter part of the decade. High con-
          centrations of SS are usually due to soil erosion from agriculture and forestry practices and
          runoff from urban development.  High concentrations of SS can cause degraded municipal
          and industrial water supplies, harmful effects on fish and invertebrate species, reduced pri-
          mary productivity in aquatic vegetation, habitat loss, and additional substrate for pathogenic
          organisms and toxic substances.       u-s- EpA Headquarters Lirv. »
                                                     Mail code 3201
                                                S/Pe^nsylvania Avenue NW              II - S
                                                Washington DC 20460

-------
INLAND SURFACE WATERS

 Figure 3b. Fecal Coliform (FC): There is a slight downward trend in the fraction of stations exceeding
          FC concentrations of 200#/100ml throughout the decade.  High concentrations of FC are
          usually a result of inadequate sewage treatment or agricultural livestock waste runoff. The
          presence of fecal coliform is an indicator of fecal contamination and signifies the possible
          existence of further contamination by pathogenic organisms.
 Figure 3c. Nitrate (N03-): There has been no observable trend in the fraction of stations exceeding N03"
          concentrations of 1.0 mg/l. The fraction of stations exceeding this value has remained just
          above 0.2 throughout the sampling period. Some of the many sources of N03- include mu-
          nicipal and industrial waste water, septic systems, feed lot discharges, misapplication of
          agricultural and lawn fertilizer, animal wastes, leachate from waste disposal, and air deposi-
          tion from automobiles and other combustion sources. Concentrations of N03- that would ex-
          hibit toxic effects to humans or wildlife rarely occur in nature.  However, high concentrations
          of N03- are a major contributor to the eutrophication of waterbodies, reducing water quality
          and aquatic life support.
 Figure 3d. Total Phosphorous as P (P): There is a slight downward trend in the fraction of stations ex-
          ceeding P concentrations of 0.1 mg/l throughout the decade. Some of the many sources of
          P include municipal and industrial waste water, feed lot discharges, misapplication of agri-
          cultural and lawn fertilizer, animal wastes, leachate from waste disposal, and air deposition.
          High concentrations of P can contribute to the eutrophication of waterbodies, reducing water
          quality and aquatic life support. The downward trend nationwide presumably results from a
          combination of reduced uses of phosphorus fertilizer, phosphate detergent bans, and ad-
          vanced wastewater treatment.
 Figure 3e. Dissolved Oxygen (DO): There has been no observable trend in the fraction of stations ex-
          ceeding DO concentrations of 6.5 mg/l. National criteria for DO are based on the physical
          characteristics of the waterbody and species of fish present. There are many factors that
          influence the concentration of dissolved oxygen in aquatic systems. Low DO concentrations
          are often caused by high water temperatures,  excessive decay of biological matter (large
          algal blooms decaying in eutrophic waters), high concentrations of pollutants with high bio-
          logical or chemical oxygen demand (BOD/COD).
Proportions of USGS Stations Showing
Improvement  Versus  Deterioration

Direction of Change, Rather than Absolute Level
Figure 4 shows a somewhat different way of analyzing USGS water quality data, reported by
Lettenmaier, et al. of the University of Washington. Included here are stations in the USGS National
Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN), which make up the bulk of, but not all of, the stations in
the National Water Summary (NWS) data shown in Figure 3. (The NASQAN analysis was done for 1978
to 1987; the NWS is for 1980 to 1989). Figure 4 shows the proportion of stations reporting statistically
significant improvement versus deterioration.  If stations did not exceed the EPA water quality criterion or
other guideline for a given pollutant, but the concentration was nevertheless increasing, or if they ex-
ceeded the criterion, and the exceedance was getting worse, they are reflected in the right side of the
bar graph in Figure 4, but would not make a difference in Figure 3. On the other hand, Figure 4 does not
show how often pollutants did or did not exceed criteria.

Results
There is typically agreement between the pollutants fa which more stations were improving than deteriorating
at NASQAN stations in 1978 to 1987, and pollutants for which the numbers of National Water Summary

11-6

-------
                                                                             INLAND SURFACE WATERS
Figure 3. Water Quality Trends at USGS National Water Summary Stations

Figure 3a.
   0.5
   0.4
   0.3 —
   0.2 —
   0.1 —
Fraction of Stations Exceeding Suspended
Sediment Concentrations of 100 mg/l
   0.0
        1980
    1982
 I
1984
 I
1986
                            Figure 3b. Fraction of Stations Exceeding Fecal
                                       Coliform Concentrations of 200#/100ml
                            0.6 -
                                                  0.4 —
                                                  0.2 —
                                       o.o
1988
1990
1980
 I
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Figure 3c. Fraction of Stations Exceeding Nitrate
           Concentrations of 10 mg/l
   0.3 -
   0.2 —
   0.1 —
   0.0
        1980
    1982
                      1984
       T
       1986
                                     1988
                                 1990
Figure 3e. Fraction of Stations with Annual Rate of Viola-
           tion Exceeding 20% for 6.5 mg/l of Dissolved
           Oxygen
   0.3
   0.2  —
   0.1  —
   0.0
        1980
     I
    1982
1984
  I
1986
                                     1988
                                 1990
                                       Figure 3d.  Fraction of Stations Exceeding Total
                                                   Phosphorous Concentrations of 0.1 mg/l*
                                       0.6  -
                                                   0.4 —
                                                   0.2 —
                                                   0.0
                                                                       •based on annual mean cone.
                                 1980
                                 1982
                                                                      1984
                                        1986
                                        1988
                                     1990
                                            The exceedance values for Figures 3a - d were
                                            taken from the 1986 USEPA Water Quality Criteria
                                            guidelines. Criteria are the recommended levels of
                                            substances to ensure that designated uses for
                                            waters are achieved. The value for dissolved
                                            oxygen in Figure 3e is an  arbitrary value derived
                                            form various sources by USGS hydrologists.

                                            Note: These data are still under review In
                                            January 1992 and should not be copied or
                                            cited. For more Information about this
                                            data contact: Richard Smith, Water Re-
                                            sources Division, USGS.
                                 Data quality!  Good.
                                 Relevance to EPA programs: Moderate;
                                 selected stations are not a random
                                 sample, but are a close representation of
                                 the nation's waters.
                                                                                             11-7

-------
    Figure 4.   Proportion off River and Stream Stations Showing Improvement
                 or Deterioration, 1978 - 1987 for "Conventional" Pollutants
   Source Lettenmaier et al. 1991. based on USGS NASQAN data stations representing all U S Regions, and Smith, et al 1987
          Pollutants

      Dissolved Solids
    Number of Stations = 388
                             Percent of Stations Showing Improvement

                             Percent of stations showing deterioration
                              Percent of stations showing
                              no significant change
        "1
72
              Likely Sources

              Agriculture
              Land Development
              Industry
             Nitrogen
   Number of Stations = 390
              Chloride
    Number of Stations = 392
     Suspended Solids
    Number of Stations = 153
        Oxygen Deficit
    Number of Stations - 316
        Fecal Coliform
              Bacteria
    Number of Stations = 390
          Phosphorus
   Number of Stations = 389
                                             73
                                             75
80
74
79
                                             79
]
3
3
H
                          -I	1	1	1	\	1	1	1	1	1

                           10  20   30  40   50   60   70  80   90  100
                                            Percent
      Fertilizers
21    Air Deposition
      Sewage

      Road Salt
      Industry
      Sewage
      Irrigation
      Agriculture
      Land Development
      Logging
      Natural Runoff

      Sewage
      Industry
      Agriculture

      Sewage
      Natural Runoff
      Livestock

      Detergents
      Fertilizers
      Sewage
      Industry
      Data quality; Good.
      Relevance to program; Moderate; collectively NASQAN stations somewhat over-represent larger
      rivers and streams.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/September 1991

-------
                                                                      INLAND SURFACE WATERS

stations exceeding criteria decreased.  (Chloride and dissolved solids are not included in the National
Water Summary data shown here.) For phosphorus, fecal coliform bacteria and suspended solid (or
"sediment") concentrations, more NASQAN stations improved than declined in 1978 to 1987, and the
fraction of the National Water Summary stations exceeding EPA criteria declined slightly but significantly
for these same pollutants.
However, for oxygen deficit, while the fraction of National Water Summary stations exceeding the USGS
guideline did not change significantly, more NASQAN stations improved than declined. The difference
could reflect the slight differences in time periods and stations in the two analyses. For whatever reason,
it indicates that we were making progress more places than not from 1978 to 1987.

Another notable difference in these two analyses is in nitrogen. From 1980 to 1989, the proportion of
National Water Summary stations exceeding EPA's nitrate criterion did not change significantly. Yet,
from 1978 to 1987,21 % of NASQAN stations had significant increases in nitrogen, while only 6% showed
improvement. Again, it is possible that some of the difference is due to the time periods and stations.
Although the reasons are not clear, increases in nitrogen at NASQAN stations occurred much more often
than not in the 1978 to 1987 time period.

Geographic  Trends  in Water Quality

The USGS Open-File Report 92-70 provides national maps of trends in all the conventional pollutants
discussed above. Three have been selected for discussion here because there were marked differ-
ences in conditions and/or trends from region to region.

Geographic Comparisons for Phosphorus

Phosphorus either decreased or showed no significant trend at almost all stations throughout the country
(Figure 5a). There were, however, clusters of stations with increases throughout most of Georgia, and in
south Texas.

Geographic Comparisons for Nitrogen

Nitrate nitrogen showed few significant trends, or a mix of increases and decreases, in most regions
(Figure 5b). However, along the mid-Atlantic seaboard and the California coast, while many stations
showed no trends, there were several stations with increases and none with declines.

Geographic Comparisons for Dissolved Oxygen

The trend map (Figure 6a) shows that total dissolved oxygen (a desirable attribute, as opposed to the
oxygen deficit discussed in Figures 3 and 4) usually increased or was stable in the midwest and north-
west, was stable in the east, and generally stable or mixed in the remainder of the country. However, a
second map (Figure 6b) shows that, even though there are not large numbers of locations with changes
in oxygen from 1980 to 1989, there are very large differences in the actual concentrations throughout the
country. There is a marked geographic shift from high oxygen concentrations of 9.0 or even 10.0 milli-
grams per liter in the northwest, west and upper midwest, to concentrations of 8.0 milligrams per liter
and below in the southeast. These differences result in large measure from natural influences.
                                                                                    ff-9

-------
 Figure 5a. USGS National Water Quality Trend Data for Phosphorus, 1980-1989
A  Increasing

V  Decreasing

 •  No Trend

 *• Total change greater than 20%

 A Total change less than 20%

Source:  USGS, "A graphical summary of selected water-
quality constituents in streams of the coterminous United
Sates 198O-1989." USGS Open File Report 92-70.
                                            Data quality; Good.
                                            Relevance to program: Moderate; sampling Is near the lower
                                            end of accounting units; stations are not a random sample,
                                            but closely represent the nation's waters.
 Figure 5b.  USGS National Water Quality Trend Data for Nitrate Nitrogen,
              1980-1989
A  Increasing

T  Decreasing

 •  No Trend

A Total change greater than 20%

 A Total change less than 20%
 Source: USGS, "A graphical summary of selected water-
 quality constituents in streams of the coterminous United
 Sates 1980-1989." USGS Open Rle Report 92-70.
                                            Data quality: Good.
                                            Relevance to program; Moderate; sampling Is near the lower
                                           end of accounting units; stations are not a random sample,
                                           but closely represent the nation's waters.

-------
Figure 6a.  USGS National Water Quality Trend Data for Dissolved Oxygen,
             1980-1989
A  Increasing
    Decreasing
 •  No Trend

A Total change greater than 20%
A Total change less than 20%
Source:  USGS, "A graphical summary of selected water-
quality constituents in streams of the coterminous United
Sates 1980-1989.' USGS Open File Report 92-70.

Figure 6b. USGS National Water Quality Trend Data for Dissolved Oxygen Levels,
            198O-1989
 Data quality; Good.
 Relevance to program; Moderate; sampling Is near the lower
 end of accounting units; stations are not a random sample,
 but closely represent the nation's waters.
Concentrations (mg/liter)
 •  Less than 8.0
 •  8.0 to 9.0
 •  9.0 to 10.0

•  Greater than 10.0
Source: USGS. "A graphical summary of selected water-
quality constituents in streams of the coterminous United
Sates 1980-1989." USGS Open Rle Report 92-70.
Frequency of Occurences Below 6.5 mg/liter
•  = Less than 5% of the time
O  - 5% to 20% of the time
•  - Greater than 20% of the time
                                         Data quality; Good.
                                         Relevance to program; Moderate; sampling Is near the lower
 end of accounting units; stations are not a random sample,
 but closely represent the nation's waters.

-------
                                                                         INLAND SURFACE WATERS

 Lakes  and Reservoirs

 Degree of Designated Use Support

 In the 1990 305(b) reports, 46 states provided information on support of designated uses in their lakes
 and reservoirs.  A total of 18,500,000 acres were assessed, 2 million more than were assessed in 1988.
 These assessed acres represent 47% of the nation's total 39,400,000 lake acres. Great Lakes are not
 included in this assessment.

 Of those assessed lake acres, approximately 8,000,000 acres (44%) were found to be fully supporting
 their designated uses (Figure 7). An additional 3,000,000 acres (16%) are threatened (i.e., may not fully
 support uses in the future if action is not taken to control pollution sources). Nineteen percent of as-
 sessed lake acres, or about 3,500,000 acres, partially support uses, and 21%, or 4,000,000 acres, do
 not support uses.

 As described for rivers and streams, these data should be interpreted with caution and should not be
 compared to those of previous 305(b) reporting cycles. Assessment methods and criteria may vary both
 between states and within states over time. However, as with rivers and streams, the number of lake
 acres assessed has increased over previous years.


 Figure 7.  Designated Use Support in the  Nation's Assessed Lakes
                       3,500,000
              3,000,000
         8,000,000
Fully Supporting


Threatened


Partially Supporting


Not Supporting


Unassessed
                                                           * Estimate of total lake acres (39,400,000) based
                                                            on State-Reported Information in America's
                                                            Clean Water, the States' Nonpoint Source
                                                            Assessment, ASIWPCA, 1985.
                           Lake Acres

                (Values rounded to nearest 500,000 acres)
  Data quality;  Useful to describe relative proportions; not at all precise,
  due to state sampling differences.
  Relevance to EPA program! Very relevant to CWA goals.
Source: National Water Quality Inventory, 1990 Report to Congress.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
                                                       U.S. EPA Headquarters Lur,,.;
                                                              Mail code 3201
                                                       1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
                                                          Washington DC 20460
                                                                                      11-12

-------
INLAND SURFACE WATERS

Causes and Sources of Impairment

In 1990,35 states provided data on the causes of nonsupport in their lakes, as well as information on the
various sources of pollution. As described for rivers, any given acre of lake may be affected by many
causes and sources. Thus, a single lake acre may be counted under multiple categories if it is affected
by multiple causes and sources.
The most extensive causes of use impairment in lakes were metals (affecting 48% of impaired acres),
nutrients (affecting 32%), organic enrichment/low dissolved oxygen (affecting 19%), and suspended
solids (affecting 13%). However, it should be noted that this data was skewed by data from one state,
Minnesota, which changed its assessment approach in 1990 and reported a large number of lake acres
affected by mercury from atmospheric deposition.  When data from that state are excluded, metals rank
sixth and nutrients are by far the leading cause of use impairment.
As shown in Figure 8, states report the most extensive source of pollution in lakes to be agricultural run-
off, affecting 57% of lake acres.  Other leading sources in lakes  include hydrologic/habitat modification
(affecting 40% of impaired acres), storm sewers/runoff (affecting 28%), land disposal (affecting 24%),
and municipal dischargers (affecting 17%). It should be noted that, as with the causes of impairment,
certain states predominate in the number of lake acres reported in each category and  skew the
rankings. For example, Florida alone accounts for 66% of the total number of lake acres affected by
storm sewers/runoff and 70% of the lake acres affected by land  disposal.

Figure 8.   Percent of  Impaired Lake Acres Affected by  Sources of
              Pollution
            Pollution Sources

                 Agriculture

                 Hydrotogfc/
           Habitat Modification

          Storm Sewers/Runoff


               Land Disposal


                 Municipal


                 Unknown


                 Industrial

                 Resource
                 Extraction
             Data quality;  Useful to describe relative proportions; not at all precise,
             due to state sampling differences.
             Relevance to EPA programs Very relevant to CWA goals.
Source: National Water Quality Inventory, 1990 Report to Congress.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
11-13

-------
                                                                      INLAND SURFACE WATERS

Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to

Strategies and Objectives

Objectives with National Indicator Data: Some Positive Trends in
Conventional Pollutants
There are several positive implications of the water quality trend data. The most striking is the overall
reduction in phosphorus levels, which is presumably associated with the combination of detergent bans,
advanced wastewater treatment and fertilizer use reductions. In addition, the large number of stations
with fecal coliform and oxygen deficit reductions from 1978 to 1987, and the decreases in the numbers
of stations exceeding the coliform criterion and the (arbitrarily set) oxygen deficit guideline, may repre-
sent modest success for the sewage treatment plant construction grants program in improving conven-
tional water quality nationwide. This is especially notable given an increase in population nationwide
over the last decade, and given that USGS sampling locations are not intended to focus on urban im-
pacts, but rather to reflect overall conditions in watersheds, integrating impacts from non-traditional
sources with the more traditional point sources such as factories and sewage treatment plants which our
regulatory programs have most strongly addressed.
There are also indications from the trend data that some of our strategies are not yet succeeding and
may need re-evaluation. The most important finding may be that we have not yet succeeded in de-
creasing the extent of nitrogen pollution, and that nitrogen levels increased significantly far more often
than they decreased from 1978 to 1987. Given the information reported by states in their 305(b) reports
that nitrogen sources to inland waters are dominated by agricultural runoff, clearly we are unlikely to suc-
ceed in diminishing water quality impairment due to nitrogen without decreasing agricultural runoff of
nitrogen fertilizers. OW's strategic plan correctly identifies increased effectiveness in agricultural non-
point source controls to targeted watersheds as an important objective.

Incomplete Data: Airborne and Ground Water Sources of Nitrogen

One important potential conventional pollutant source is not well addressed by current national indica-
tors or strategies. Based on data on the Chesapeake Bay from another section of this report, while exist-
ing 305(b) report data do not attempt to quantify air deposition, this might be an important source of ni-
trogen problems in surface waters in general.  Airborne nitrogen comes primarily from combustion
sources such as power plants and automobiles, and is now recognized as an important part of the nitro-
gen problem in the Chesapeake Bay. The Chesapeake Bay watershed is not unique in the likelihood of
airborne nitrogen sources contributing to surface water problems. Given this, evaluation of the nitrogen
air deposition problem at the national level should be given serious attention. In addition, EPA's nitrate
strategy should be expanded to include detailed examination of relative costs and benefits of controlling
all major sources for areas with nitrogen impacts.  For example, airborne sources may be large and ex-
pected to increase in some target areas (i.e. areas with increasing populations, increasing automobile
use, large impacts from power plants) where it is not deemed economically and practically feasible to
adequately control the associated increases in air deposition of nitrogen to surface waters. Those areas
may be appropriate candidates for stronger controls from other sources, such as nitrogen removal at
sewage treatment plants, or more ambitious agricultural control programs.
A final source of nitrogen (and other pollutants) that is not well understood and not accounted for  by cur-
rently available national indicators is ground water discharge to surface waters. Again, intensive studies
for water bodies such as the Chesapeake Bay and the Great Lakes  reveal that ground water transport of
nutrients can be a substantial portion of the total loadings. This is a factor that needs to be taken into
account in developing strategies for cleaning up individual water bodies, although typically there is little
possibility of addressing the problem once the pollutants have entered the ground water. It simply
means that target load reductions may require greater reductions in controllable sources than might be
realized if ground water contributions were not taken into account.

                                                                                   11-14

-------
INLAND SURFACE WATERS

Conclusions from Geographic Analysis
A few geographic situations of possible concern are revealed by recent USGS data. Not surprisingly, in
the heavily populated areas of the mid-Atlantic and California coasts, nitrates tend to be increasing, even
though nationally there is not a significant trend. This indicates a possible need to consider increasing
nitrogen controls on sources associated with population centers, which include automobile and power
plant emissions (airborne sources of nitrogen deposition to surface waters) and sewage treatment
plants, few of which remove nitrogen in large amounts. Nitrogen fertilizers are also important sources in
parts of the Mid-Atlantic regions.
The second situation of concern is the increase in phosphorus in the southeast which may be contribut-
ing to some of the region's low dissolved oxygen concentrations. The causes are not easily determined,
as the region is a mix of agriculture, suburban and urban development, and slow-moving, naturally low
oxygenated waters. A regional assessment of phosphorus loading and possible impacts in the south-
east, and Georgia and Florida in particular, might be an appropriate screening project for EPA to con-
sider undertaking.

Future Indicator Being Developed:  Point Source Loadings

At present, loading data are not available on a national basis. OW is, however, working with Region 5 to
develop a capability to estimate point source loadings from Permit Compliance System data, and hopes
to generalize this to the nation as a whole within several years. The  data will at first be most complete for
conventional pollutants. As more NPDES permits with limits for more toxic pollutants are written, data on
toxics will become increasingly meaningful on a national basis.

Objectives Lacking indicator Data: Reduction of Toxic Impacts in
Sediments and Water

For two of OW's major objectives, relating to reducing toxic contamination in sediments and water, no
national indicators are available on status or trends. OW has data sources that could be used to derive
some indicator data, although it is not known at this time whether they would support national status and
trend analysis.  The STORET and ODES databases have substantial information on toxic pollutant con-
centrations in fish tissue, sediment, and water. Special analyses could be run on these data to evaluate
trends.
EPA's National Bioaccumulation Study was specifically designed to  evaluate the occurrence and preva-
lence of fish contamination throughout the country.  The final report on this major study will be available
to the public this year.
In 1987, OW prepared a preliminary national inventory of contaminated sediment sites. As part of the
agency-wide contaminated sediment management strategy, EPA is  committed to developing a much
more comprehensive national inventory over the next few years. Regional contaminated sediment inven-
tories are already underway in Regions 4,5, and 6.
11-15

-------
                                                              ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS
                        Estuaries and Coastal Waters


  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                      Human Health     Ecological      Welfare
       Unfinished Business Report         NR, cancer        High          High
                                      Medium, non-cancer

       SAB Reducing Risk Report          NR              Med          Med

       Regional Comparative Risk          NR              NR            NR

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                      1988             1990
                                      Medium          Med-High

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

       • Agricultural Sector               • Pollution Prevention Legislation
       • Chesapeake Bay                • Gulf of Mexico
       • Core Research                 • Multimedia Enforcement
       • Estuary Program                • Clean Water Act
Problem

Threats to estuaries and coastal waters (collectively called "near coastal waters") are similar to those
affecting inland waters, that is, there are point source threats and nonpoint sources of pollutants (see
page 11-1). Problems of particular concern in coastal waters include contaminated shellfish waters, and
impacts on unique estuarine and marine ecosystems such as sea grasses, shrimp nurseries, and habitat
for anadromous (migratory) fisheries, such as shad and salmon.

Estuaries  and Coastal Waters

Goals/Objectives
According to the FY1993-1996 Strategic Plan, the Office of Water's (OW) goal is to protect, restore,
and maintain the nation's coastal waters to sustain living resources, protect human health and the food
supply, and recover full recreational uses of shores, beaches and waters.
Specific objectives in OW's strategic plan are to: 1) decrease the temporal and spatial extent of hypoxic
and anoxic "dead zones" in coastal waters; 2) maintain the biotic integrity of benthic invertebrate and
pelagic fish communities in coastal waters; 3) maintain (and increase where feasible) the extent and
productivity of critical marine and coastal habitats, especially coastal wetlands; 4) remove all impair-
ments and minimize threats from point sources, reduce threats and impairments from nonpoint sources
in targeted watersheds, reduce (and eliminate where feasible) sediment contamination from point and
nonpoint sources; 5) increase the number of shellfish harvest areas open for harvest; 6) improve the
quality and consistency of fishing bans and advisories and beach closures in the short-term (including a
short-term rise in the number issued) and over the long-term, thus decreasing the need for fishing bans/

                                                                                 11-16

-------
ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

advisories and beach closures; 7) eliminate the discharge of highly persistent, bioaccumulative pollut-
ants currently in use; 8) reduce the amount of debris in the marine environment; 9) eliminate all dumping
of municipal sewage at the 106 mile site; and 10) minimize the impact of dredged material dumping at
other ocean sites.
Strategies
OW has identified a series of strategies and key directions to achieve their strategic goals and objec-
tives. The following identifies the major strategies and highlights some of the key directions discussed in
the OW Strategic Plan.
Promote Integrated Water Quality Management and Targets Based on Risk

OW intends to eliminate ongoing discharges of selected toxic, highly persistent pollutants, and reduce
the risk from in-place contaminated sediments. OW will identify a core list of highly persistent, bioaccu-
mulative pollutants targeted for zero discharge. This effort is being conducted in concert with the
Agency's pollution prevention strategy.
Educate and Empower Others

OW will work with others at the local, state, and regional levels as well as expand partnerships with other
federal agencies and other nations. Highlights include: pressing state and local governments to imple-
ment effective land use policies and controls to assure that growth and development proceed in an envi-
ronmentally sound direction; issuing and enforcing NPDES stormwater permits in large municipalities in
all coastal counties; and using nonpoint source techniques to prepare local governments for compliance
with new regulations. To improve knowledge of coastal waters, and protection of special high-value areas,
OW will work with other EPA offices/NOAA/other federal agencies/states to develop and implement credible
coastal waters monitoring programs, and to support an increase in the number of estuarine/marine sanc-
tuaries, protected refuges, reserves and parks. OW will also continue development and implementation of
Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plans developed under the National Estuary Program.
Strategic Implementation of Statutory Mandates

A key direction for OW is developing and implementing strategies to meet the new provisions  of the
Coastal Zone Act Reauthorization Amendments of 1990. To this end OW will develop a guidance speci-
fying management measures for nonpoint sources of pollution in coastal waters. OW will also  coordinate
with NOAA to assist states in developing coastal nonpoint pollution management programs which inte-
grate measures to address the Coastal Zone Management land use provisions with those addressing
Clean Water Act (CWA) water quality concerns, and which implement enforceable management measures
based on EPA's guidance. OW will also develop a risk-based guidance for issuance of CWA 403 permits.


Environmental  Indicator  Results

Degree of Designated Use Support

Twenty-two states provided use support information on their estuarine waters in their 1990 State Section
305(b) reports. A total of approximately 26,500 square miles were assessed, representing 75% of the
estuarine waters in these states.

Of these assessed waters, approximately 15,000 square miles, or 56%, were found to fully support desig-
nated uses (Figure 9). An additional 11% (3,000 estuarine square miles) currently support uses but
could become impaired if control actions are not taken. Twenty-five percent of assessed estuarine wa-
ters (6,500 square miles) partially support uses, and 8% (2,000 square miles) do not support their desig-
nated uses.
II-*7

-------
                                                                     ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

Figure 9.   Designated Use Support in the Nation's Assessed Estuaries
            3,000
                  6,500   ^
                        Estuary Square Miles

                 (Values rounded to nearest 500 square miles)
Q Fully Supporting


 ll Threatened


 H Partially Sup porting


 § Not Supporting


 I Unassessed
                                                             * Total U.S. estuary square miles (35,624 square
                                                              miles) based on 1990 State-reported Section
                                                              305(b) data and excluding Alaska, New
                                                              Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Island Territories.
  Data quality; Useful to describe relative proportions; not at all precise,
  due to state sampling differences.
  Relevance to EPA program; Very relevant to CWA goals.
Source: National Water Quality Inventory, 1990 Report to Congress.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
Causes and Sources of Impairment

For their estuarine waters, 16 states provided information in 1990 on the causes of non-support, while 15
states provided information on the sources of pollution. As with rivers and lakes, any given square mile
may be counted under several categories of causes and sources if it is affected by more than one.
Nutrients are reported by the states as the leading cause of nonsupport in estuaries, affecting 55% of
total impaired square miles. Organic enrichment/low dissolved oxygen was found to affect 31% of im-
paired waters, while pathogens were reported to affect 30% of assessed areas. These findings indicate
that eutrophication (caused by excessive nutrients) and high concentrations of bacteria- which can lead
to restrictions in shellfishing waters (see section on shellfish conditions and trends) - are the leading
threats to the Nation's estuaries. Other causes identified by the states were priority organics, affecting
15% of impaired waters; suspended solids, affecting 8%; metals, affecting 7%; and siltation, affecting 5%.
The sources of pollution in estuaries are somewhat different than those in inland waters. As shown in
Figure 10, the most extensive source of pollution cited  by the states in estuarine waters is municipal dis-
charges (affecting 35% of impaired square miles), following by storm sewers/runoff (affecting 30%), land
disposal (affecting 19%), agriculture (affecting 18%), construction (affecting 11%), and industrial dis-
charges (affecting 10%).

These figures should be interpreted with care, as almost half of the states with estuarine waters did not
provide information on the causes of impairment. Also, the significance of causes affecting large estuar-
ies  such as the Chesapeake Bay may overshadow problems affecting smaller estuaries. For example,
Maryland alone accounts for 67% of the estuarine waters affected by nutrients and for 66% of the waters

-------
ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

impacted by organic enrichment.  Likewise, in the case of sources, the state reporting the most square
miles of impaired estuarine waters (Louisiana) did not report the sources of impairments. As a result,
sources affecting large estuarine tracts, such as resource extraction in Louisiana, are not adequately
reflected in the rankings.

Figure 10.  Percent of Impaired Estuarine Square Miles Affected by
              Sources of Pollution
Municipal discharges are the most extensive source of pollution reported in estuaries.

           Pollution Sources

                   Municipal

            Storm Sewers/Runoff
               Combine Sewere

                   Hydrotogfc/
              Habitat Modification
                                 10
                                       20
        30
      Percent
40
                                                            50
                            60
             Data quality: Useful to describe relative proportions; not at all precise,
             due to state sampling differences.
             Relevance to EPA program: Very relevant to CWA goals.
Source: National Water Quality Inventory, 1990 Report to Congress.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
Shellfish
and  Trends
The quantity of shellfish harvested and the water quality of shellfish growing waters are important envi-
ronmental indicators for near coastal waters. According to NOAA's 1990 National Shellfish Register of Clas-
sified Estuarine Waters these indicators show a steady nationwide decline over the past three decades.

Steady Decline in Harvest

Despite restoration efforts such as oyster reef replenishment, hatchery operations, and selective breed-
ing, commercial-stocks of wild estuarine shellfish have steadily declined over the past 30 years. The rate
of decline is highest in  the most productive estuaries such as Chesapeake Bay, the Mississippi Delta
region, and Puget Sound.  In the Chesapeake Bay, for example, oyster harvest dropped from 32 million
pounds in 1959 to 3.7 million pounds in 1990.  Decline in oyster harvest in Chesapeake Bay has been
caused by a combination of hypoxia, over fishing, sedimentation, and a parasitic disease known as MSX.

The most significant declines in commercial shellfish landings were in the Gulf of Mexico, which has tra-
ditionally lead the nation in oyster harvesting. Between 1985 and 1990 oyster landings declined 50% in the
Gulf of Mexico (Rgure 11). The Gulf is now the second largest oyster-producing region, following Washington
11-19

-------
                                                                    ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS
Figure 11.  Total U.S. Oyster Harvest
Total U.S. oyster harvest declined (mostly in the Gulf of Mexico) between 1985 and 1989 due to disease,
habitat loss, and declines in approved waters.
   30,000 -r-
   25.000  - -
   20,000  - -
   15,000  - -
   10,000
    5,000  --
Data quality! Moderate;
includes estimates and
self-reporting by commer-
cial fisherman.

Relevance to EPA pro-
grams: Some relevance,
but many other factors
also Involved.

	 n 	 	 	
	 	 1 	
- n 	
I 	 1 	
	 Q
	 1
                                                                          Gulf of Mexico


                                                                          Pacific
                                                                      *   Northeast
                                                                          Southeast
         1985            1986            1987            1988

Source: NOAA, The 1990 National Shellfish Register of Classified Estuarine Waters, 1990.
 1989
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch

State.  In terms of oyster harvest, Willapa Bay is now the most productive estuary in the country account-
ing for half of Washington's oyster production and 20% of the national total. However, increased oyster
production in Willapa Bay is due to aquaculture rather than the harvest of wild oyster stock.

According to NOAA,  declines in estuarine quality, primarily due to expanding coastal development, is a
major factor in harvest declines. Without increases in aquaculture it is considered likely by NOAA that
shellfish harvests will continue to decline. Although trends in any given year are not especially dramatic,
NOAA projects that a long term continued decline in the water quality of productive estuaries in combi-
nation with over-harvesting and disease, would severely threaten all natural harvesting of U.S. shellfish.

Decline in  Approved Shellfish-Growing Waters

Between 1985 and 1990 there was a 6% decline (736,000 acres) in approved shellfish-growing waters
and a 1.2 million acre increase in prohibited waters.

Of the 17.2 million acres of classified estuarine waters in 1990,63% were approved for harvest. The
remaining harvest-limited waters includes 25% prohibited, 9% conditional, and 3% restricted due to poor
water quality. Figure 12 shows classifications broken down by region.

The increase in the number of prohibited acres is mostly due to management decisions based on in-
creased monitoring into areas not previously assessed. That is to say, it is possible that water quality
was equally  bad in early years, but monitoring did not extend into as many areas with poor water quality,
so they were not identified as needing to be closed to fishing. It is also possible that conditions in gen-
eral are actually getting worse. Current data cannot distinguish between these two possibilities.  It is
hoped that future data will be more consistent from year to year, so that good data on trends in water
quality will be available from the Shellfish Register.
                                                                                        if -20

-------
Figure 12. Trends in Classified Shellfish Waters 1971  - 1990
While there has been a decrease in the amount of shellfish waters not approved for harvesting in the South Atlantic, all other regions have shown ei-
ther little change or a marked increase in the amount of waters not approved. The region with the largest total acreage, the Gulf of Mexico, has shown
a dramatic increase in non-approved ("harvest limited") waters but this is mostly due to management decisions based on monitoring in previously
unmonitored waters. According to NOAA, urban runoff, septic systems, and sewage treatment plants are the main sources of pollution that require
areas to be classified as prohibited.
                         Approved

                         Conditional/Restricted

                         Prohibited
    Acres

 7,000,000



 6,000.000



 5,000,000




 4,000,000



 3,000,000




 2,000,000




 1,000,000
                                  Data quality!  Useful for relative status Information; temporal Incon-
                                  sistencies prevent trend analysis at present.

                                  Relevance to EPA program;  Moderately relevant; states and locals
                                  responsible for management.
                                                                                                • 2,000,000
                                                                                                 1,000,000
          Norlii  M*Je  South Guild  Wat
          Alante Atlantic  Atlantic M«doo  Coast

                  1971
North  Mdde South  Gull of  West
Alante  Altaic Atlantic  Mexico  Coast

         1974
North  Mdde South  Golf of  Wral
Alante  Atlantic Atlantic  Mexico  Coast

        1980
North  Mdde South  Gulf of  West
Alanfc  Atlantic Atlantic  Mexico  Coast

        1985
North  Middle South  GUI of  West
Alante  Atlantic ASantc  Mexico  Coast

        1990
                                                                                                              3>
                                                                                                              3
                                                                                                              BE
                                                                                                              T
                                                                                                              c
                                                                                                              §
                                                                                                              I
                                                                                     I
                                                                                     -
                                                                                     3D
                                                                                     .'
 Source:  NOAA, The 1990 National Shellfish Register of Classified Estuarine Waters, 1990.
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
                                                                    ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

Classification of Commercial Shellfish-Growing Waters
The quality of shellfish growing waters is affected by changes in livestock abundance, coastal develop-
ment, sewage treatment practices, dredging activities, the ability of states to conduct sanitary surveys,
economic importance of the available shellfish resources, and the ability of states to manage classified
waters.  If shellfishing in an area is not sufficiently profitable, a state may not spend the money to monitor
that area. (This biases the classification data, as unmonitored waters are supposed to be classified as
prohibited to fishing according to federal guidelines.)
Approved Areas are waters determined by sanitary surveys to be free of hazardous concentrations of
pathogenic organisms, or pollution, or both. Shellfish may be harvested from these areas at any time.
Prohibited Areas are closed due to hazardous levels of contamination, which is usually fecal coliform
bacteria. Prohibited areas may be upgraded when sources of contamination are eliminated, such as
through improved sewage treatment facilities.
Conditionally Approved Areas ore closed intermittently during periods when they do not meet the criteria
for approved waters.  For example, conditionally approved areas may be closed during rainy seasons when
fecal coliform levels are elevated. The areas can be reopened when fecal coliform levels return to normal.
Restricted Areas are not approved for direct marketing of shellfish because of the presence of fecal col-
iform bacteria or toxic chemicals.  However, shellfish taken from restricted areas may be sold following
purification in a depuration facility or after being "relayed" to approved waters.
Harvest Limited \s a general term referring to areas that are either prohibited, conditionally approved, or
restricted.
Sources Affecting  Shellfish Growing Waters

As population grows in coastal areas, NOAA estimates that estuarine water quality will continue to decline from
increasing urban runoff, faulty septic systems, marina development, and sewage treatment plant discharges.
For instance, there was a 50% increase since 1985 in harvest-limited waters affected by boating. In 1990,
pollution from boating and marinas affected more than 25% of harvest-limited waters (Figure 13).
North Atlantic: Pollution sources reflect the region's high coastal population density. Sewage Treatment
Plants are the major source, (affecting 67% of harvest-limited areas) followed by septic systems, industry, and
urban runoff. In 1988,  highly productive shellfish-growing waters (approximately $315,000 annual harvest)
were closed in Boston Bay because of major malfunctions in  overloaded sewage treatment plants.
Middle Atlantic: Both sewage treatment plants and urban runoff affected 57% of the harvest-limited ar-
eas. Increasing demand for coastal recreation has resulted in increased marina construction since
1985. Boating activities now affect 31 % of the harvest-limited areas.
South Atlantic: Sewage treatment plants affect 44% of the harvest-limit^J waters.  Because of intense
population growth, more than half of the region's sewage treatment plants are located along Florida's
Atlantic coast. The natural harvest in these areas has  been decimated. The South Atlantic ranks first
among regions in the percentage of harvest-limited waters affected by wildlife (36%) and livestock
(28%). Although human pathogens are not usually associated with coliform bacteria from wildlife and
livestock, the nutrients from wildlife sources, and pesticides and nutrients from agriculture (livestock) do
impair water quality and shellfish habitat.
Gulf of Mexico: NOAA estimates that about 80% of the fecal  coliform loads to the Gulf are from nonpoint
sources.  Among  nonpoint sources, septic systems affect 48% of harvest-limited shellfish growing wa-
ters, which is indicative of the many small communities in the region. Sewage treatment plants are a
significant source only in the most developed estuaries such as Tampa Bay, Mobile Bay, the Mississippi
Delta region, and Galveston Bay.

Pacific: The Pacific region has the highest percentage (42%) of harvest limited shellfish-growing waters
affected by industry.  Three-quarters of the industrial dischargers are located in Puget Sound, Columbia

                                                                                       11-22

-------
&     Figure 13.  Shellfish Harvest Areas Affected  by Pollution Sources - 1990
                                                                                                                                 m
                                                                                                                                 -
Total Harvest-Limited Area Includes Conditional, Restricted, and Prohibited Waters
Conditional: waters do not meet criteria at all times, but shellfish may be harvested
            when criteria are not met
Restricted: shellfish may be harvested if subjected to a suitable purification process
Prohibited: harvest for human consumption cannot occur at any time
Multiple pollution sources are often identified for a single Harvest-Limited Area, therefore the sum of the
area affected by sources in an estuary is usually greater than the amount of the Harvest-Limited Area

The West Coast
644,000 total areas are classified for shellfish harvest (48% are Harvest-Limited)
The West Coast, due to geomorphic differences, has far less esluarine and shallow coastal
habitat than either the East Coast or the Gulf of Mexico. The major sources of pollution are
urban runoff and industry.
    Area (thousand acres)0
 Total Harvest-Limited Area
          Urban Runoff
              Industry
  Sewage Treatment Plant
         Septic Systems
               Boating
       Agricultural Runoff
               Wildlife
        Direct Discharge
       Combined Sewers
        The Gulf of Mexico
        7,095,000 total areas are classified lor shellfish harvest (52% are Harvest-Limited)
        The Gulf of Mexico is the fastest growing coastal region in the U.S. and Urban Runoff,
        Septic Systems, and STPs are the three major sources of shellfish harvest area restrictions.
           Area (thousand acres) 0   500  1000  1500  2000 2500  3000  3500  4000
       Total Harvest-Limited Area
        Sewage Treatment Plants
                 Urban Runoff
               Septic Systems
                      Wildlife
               Direct Discharge
                                                                                             The Northeast Region (Maine to New York)
                                                                                             2,410,000 total areas are classified for shellfish harvest (16% are Harvest-Limited)
                                                                                             The Northeast Region is highly developed and is affected by a combination of sources associated with urban areas -
                                                                                             Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs). Septic Systems, and Urban Runoff.
                                                                                                                Area (thousand acres) 0
                                                                                                             Total Harvest-Limited Area
                                                                                                             Sewage Treatment Plants
                                                                                                                     Septic Systems
                                                                                                                      Urban Runoff
                                                                                                                           Boating
                                                                                                                   Combined Sewers
                                                                                                                          Industry
                                                                                                                           Wildlife
                                                                                                                   Agricultural Runoff
                                                                                                                    Direct Discharge
                                                                                                                                     50   100   150   ZOO  250   300
                                                                                                                                                                          401
                                                                                                                                63
                                                                                                                                >
                                                                                                                                c
                                                                                                                                 :
                                                                                                                                 I
                                                                                                                           The Mid-Atlantic Region (New Jersey to Virginia)
                                                                                                                           5,608,000 total areas are classified for shellfish harvest (21% are Harvest-Limited)
                                                                                                                           The Mid-Atlantic Region includes the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S.
                                                                                                                           STPs, Urban Runoff, and Recreational Boating are the largest pollution sources.
             Agricultural Runoff
                     Industry
                     Boating
             Combined Sewers
                                                         Area (thousand acres)0
                                                     Total Harvest-Limited Area
                                                      Sewage Treatment Plants
                                                               Urban Runoff
                                                                   Boating
                                                           Combined Sewers
                                                                   Industry
                                                                   Wildlife
                                                           Agricultural Runoff
                                                             Septic Systems
                                                            Direct Discharge
                                                                                                                                                                             :•
                                                                                                                                                                                    tooo
                                                                                                                                                                                           1200
        Source: NOAA, The 1990 National Shellfish Register of
        Classified Estuarine Waters. 1990.
        Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
The Southeast Region (North Carolina to Florida)
2,940,000 total areas are classified for shellfish harvest (29% are Harvest-Limited)
The Southeast Region is the most rural region on the east coast and it is dependent on agriculture and silviculture.  In the past few
years, the Southeast has been experiencing rapid population growth and Urban Runoff, Septic Systems, and STPs are all increasing
as pollution sources.
                 Area (thousand acres) 0   100  200  300  400  500   600  700   600  900
              Total Harvest-Limited Area I«. » t » A «. J » »'» t. V - J " ~'~  "^
               Sewage Treatment Plants
                            Wildlife
                        Urban Runoff
                      Septic Systems
                    Agricultural Runoff
                            Industry
                            Boating
                     Direct Discharge
                    Combined Sewers
                                                                                                                                      Data quality;  Useful relative status
                                                                                                                                      information; not precise.
                                                                                                                                      Relevance to EPA programs;  High.

-------
                                                              ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

River, San Francisco Bay, and San Pedro Bay, but only Puget Sound currently has commercial harvest.

Decline in Management Resources
As coastal development has grown, shellfish management resources were reduced in half of the shell-
fish-producing states between 1985 and 1990. Continued declines in the resources necessary for states
to monitor and manage waters could reduce once again the proportions of waters states can afford to
classify and thus to open for shellfish harvesting.
Sources of Information
NOAA,  The 1990 National Shellfish Register of Classified Estuarine Waters, 1990.


The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Program:   Near  Coastal Demonstration Project

Preliminary results of the first demonstration project of the near coastal component of EPA's Environmen-
tal Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) are presented here. The EMAP-Near Coastal demon-
stration project was a coordinated activity led by EPA's Office of Research and Development, with par-
ticipation by the Office of Water, EPA Regions 1,2, and 3, and NOAA, with relevant state agencies in-
volved and advising on planning and execution. Data included here represent preliminary findings.
Please note that the data have not been peer reviewed. Additionally, these data are from
the first year of monitoring out of a four-year rotating cycle.

Background

The Virginian Province Demonstration Project was conducted during the summer of 1990 to evaluate
indicators, logistics, assessments, and the EMAP design.  Five hundred sampling visits were completed
at 217 stations distributed throughout the Province from Cape Cod to the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
EMAP applied the probabilistic sampling design to stratify on 3 classes of estuaries in the Province: (1)
open waters of large estuaries (e.g., Chesapeake Bay), (2) large tidal rivers (e.g., Potomac River), and
(3) small estuarine systems (e.g., Baltimore Harbor).

The unique feature of the EMAP design is that it is statistically driven using a population sampling ap-
proach.  This means that the information is truly representative in reflecting the overall proportion of the
sampling area in which given conditions are occurring. A relatively small number of samples can be
used to extrapolate the entire area.  However, the data are not intended to determine whether specific
locations have environmental problems. Thus EMAP data have been desjpned to provide broad-scale
depictions of environmental conditions, and can be viewed as a screeningfend scoping tool on smaller
scales.  Therefore, EMAP data are not to be used for site-specific purposes.
The indicators selected for this demonstration project were focused on two concerns of estuarine scien-
tists, environmental managers, and the public. These two features were:
  1. Biotic Integrity -the existence of healthy, diverse, and sustainable biological communities
     (e.g., fish and bottom-dwelling (benthic) invertebrates).
  2. Human Use - values relating to the public's use of estuarine resources and aesthetics (e.g.,
     trash and water clarity).

Some of the indicators are still being validated and analyzed so data presented are only a fraction of the
entire data set collected, representing examples of the types of data summaries that EMAP-Near Coastal
could provide once the full indicator data set has been established. Of the indicators related to biotic
integrity, results presented are: fish pathology, sediment toxicity, sediment metals, and bottom-water dis-
solved oxygen.  Of the indicators related to human use, only the marine debris data are presented here.


                                                                                11-24

-------
ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

Additional indicators still being analyzed include benthic biological diversity, fish species diversity, fish
tissue contaminants, sediment organic contaminants, and water clarity.

Fish Pathology

EMAP uses response indicators, characteristics of plant and animal communities, as the primary mea-
sure of ecosystem condition. One of the response indicators measured in EMAP Near Coastal is visible
signs of pathology on fish.  The occurrence of pathological problems in fish provides a measure of eco-
logical condition at the level of the individual. Evaluation of the use of pathological disorders in fish as a
measure of biological condition suggested fish pathology may be better used to make statements con-
cerning condition when expressed in terms of prevalence. For the entire Virginian Province, less than
1% (6 fish per 1000 collected) of the fish collected during the Demonstration Project had visible patho-
logical disorders (Figure 14). Pathological disorders are more prevalent in fish that feed on or are asso-
ciated with sediments (bottom-feeding fish). The prevalence of pathological disorders in bottom-feeding
fish is almost 2% (18 fish out of 1000).  For commercial and recreational fish, the prevalence of patho-
logical disorders is low (1 fish out of 1000). In 1990, over 12,000 individual fish were visually examined.
Figure 14. Visible Fish Pathology
              1990 Virginian Province
                    20
                    15
                    10
                                             (1.8%)
                                All
                                Fish
 Bottom
Dwelling
              Data quality! Very good for single
              year of sampling. One-year pilot
              doesnt represent year-to-year vari-
              ability.
              Relevance to EPA programs; Mod-
              erate; statistical design not In-
              tended to give site-specific infor-
              mation, but provides regional ex-
              pectations of conditions.
Commercial/
Recreational
  Species
Sediment Toxicity
Sediment toxicity tests, using indigenous organisms in studying acute bioassays, are the most direct
measure available for estimating the potential for contaminant-induced effects in benthic communities.
Based upon the preliminary results of these tests, 10% of the estuarine area in the Virginian Province has
sediments that are toxic to estuarine organisms (Figure 15). Within the Virginian Province, toxic sedi-
ments are more prevalent in small estuarine systems than in tidal rivers or large estuaries.  Forty-two
11-25

-------
                                                             ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS
percent of the area in the small estuarine systems of the Virginian Province has toxic sediments. In com-
parison, 2% of the sediments in large estuaries and only 1% of the sediments in tidal rivers are toxic.
Differences were also found in sediment toxicity among major estuarine systems in the Province (Chesa-
peake Bay 5%, Delaware Estuary 8%, and Long Island Sound 1%).
Figure 15. Sediment Toxicity
            1990 Virginian Province
         Data quality! Very good for single year of
         sampling. One-year pilot doesnt represent
         year-to-year variability.

         Relevance to EPA programs; Moderate;
         statistical design not Intended to give site-
         specific information.
                                       100
                                     CD

                                     I
                                        80
                                        60
                   Toxic
                   Sediments (10%)
         CD
        Nontoxic Sediments (90%)
§ 40
 20

  0




100


 80
                                                                (42%)
        (2%)
       ^Mi
        Large
       Estuaries
(1%)

Tidal
Rivers
 Small
Estuaries
                                      CD
                                     2 60
                                     o

                                     § 40
                                              (5%)
                  (8%)
                                                                 (1%)
                                           Chesapeake  Delaware   Long Island
                                              Bay     Estuary     Sound
Sediment Metals

Five percent of the estuarine area in the Virginian Province has sediments with elevated concentrations
of metals that could be attributed to human activities. Metals examined included chromium, copper, iron
mercury, manganese, nickel, lead, and iron.  Elevated concentrations were mainly due to the metals:
chromium, mercury, and zinc, and to a smaller extent to lead. Sediments having elevated concentra-
tions of metals are not equally distributed throughout the Province (Figure 16). Twenty-two percent of
the sediment area in small estuarine systems has elevated concentrations of metals. In comparison, 7%
of the area in tidal rivers has elevated concentrations of metals. None of the area in large estuaries
showed elevated concentrations of metals. Elevated sediment metals were found in 5% of the Chesa-
peake Bay area, 21% of the Delaware estuary area, and 2% of the Long Island Sound area.
                                                                               11-26

-------
ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS
Figure 16.  Sediment Metals
              1990 Virginian Province
                     Enriched
                     Concentration (5%)
       Natural Concentration (95%)
     Data quality! Vary good for single year
     of sampling. One-year pilot doesn't
     represent year-to-year variability.
     Relevance to EPA programs! Moder-
     ate; statistical design not intended to
     give site-specific Information.
  100 r-

                                                    80

                                                <  60
40


20


 0
<  60
•5
S
8  40
I
   20
                             (22%)
                                                          (0%)
                                                         Large
                                                        Estuaries
                                                                    (7%)
                   Tidal
                   Rivers
                          Small
                         Systems
                                                   1001-
                                                    80
          (5%)
                                                       Chesapeake   Delaware
                                                          Bay      Estuary
                            (2%)
                            Long Island
                              Sound
Dissolved Oxygen
Dissolved oxygen is a fundamental requirement for all estuarine organisms.  A concentration of approxi-
mately 2 ppm is generally used as a threshold for low dissolved oxygen concentrations thought to be
harmful to a variety of estuarine biota, although a marine dissolved oxygen criterion has not yet been
established. Results from the EMAP Demonstration Project indicate that on average and .at any one
time, bottom water oxygen concentrations below this threshold are found in 9% of the estuarine area in
the Virginian Province (Rgure 17). A threshold concentration of 5 ppm is used by some states as a crite-
rion to set water quality standards in some locations.  Using this threshold concentration, 26% of the
estuarine area in the Virginian Province has low dissolved oxygen concentrations.
All of the 1990 sites in the Virginian Province at which concentrations of dissolved oxygen below 2 ppm
were found were located in the Chesapeake Bay. Twenty percent of the Chesapeake Bay had dissolved
oxygen concentrations below 2 ppm. Sixty-one percent of the estuarine area in Long Island Sound had
dissolved oxygen concentrations below the 5 ppm threshold, supporting previous findings of hypoxia in
the western basin of this estuary, whereas only 10% of Delaware Bay exhibited dissolved oxygen condi-
tions below 5 ppm.

Marine Debris

Observations concerning marine litter are important because litter has multiple deleterious effects on
animals (entanglement and ingestion), interferes with fisheries (decreasing market potential for fish and
damaging vessels and gear), can economically affect tourist areas (loss of tourists, beach clean-up
costs), and contributes to the public's perception of the general environmental condition of estuaries.
Marine debris, as shown in Figure 18, is one of the indicators used to assess impaired human usage in
estuaries. It is important to note that unlike most EMAP indicators, this one does not lend itself to uniform
11-27

-------
                                                                  ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

measurement methods because litter and other debris or concerns are so diverse in size and type. All
observable litter, floatables, and human discards, (e.g., large abandoned items) were counted equally,
with the constant unit simply being the size of the areas observed and whether litter or debris of any kind
were present.

It is estimated that trash or debris was present in 15% of the estuarine area in the Virginian Province in
1990. Paper and plastic wastes were found most frequently, followed by cans and glassware. Trash
that could be specifically identified as  medical or hospital waste was not found. Long Island Sound had
the worst debris problem.  Of the area sampled in the Sound, almost 25% had debris present. In con-
trast, both the Chesapeake Bay and the Delaware Bay had a lower percentage (11 %) of debris.
Figure  17. Dissolved Oxygen
             1990 Virginian Province
                                                                               > 5 mg/l
                                                                              2 - 5 mg/l
                                                                               < 2 mg/l
              Province
Chesapeake
   Bay
Delaware
  Bay
Long Island
  Sound
Figure 18. Marine Debris
             1990 Virginian Province
                                         Long Island Sound (23%)
                                   Data quality!  Very good
                                   for single year of
                                   sampling. One-year pilot
                                   doesn't represent year-
                                   to-year variability.

                                   Relevance to EPA
                                   programs; Moderate;
                                   statistical design not
                                   intended to give site-
                                   specific information.
                                 Delaware River Estuary (11%)
                               Chesapeake Bay (11%)
                                                                                     11-28

-------
ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

Conclusion:   Comparison of  Indicator Results to

Strategies and  Objectives

Objective for Which National Status is Reported: Amount of Shellfishing
Areas Open to Harvesting
For one specific objective in OW's FY1993 -1996 Strategic Plan, increasing the amount of coastal wa-
ters open for shellfish harvesting, one national status indicator is reported here. Although data go back
over 20 years, they can be misleading at this time if used to assess trends because of major changes in
the amounts of waters monitored over time, and because shellfish beds may sometimes be closed sim-
ply if they are not monitored.  (It is hoped that in future years the year-to-year consistency problem will
be diminished.) However, the information on the types of sources contributing the most to water quality
impairments in different regions provides useful information on strategies needed to achieve OW's ob-
jective. And the information on which states or larger geographic areas have large amounts of impaired
shellfish harvest waters can be useful for geographic targeting. For example, for a large proportion (over
50%) of waters in the Gulf of Mexico, shellfish harvesting must be prohibited or restricted. This confirms
that OW's strategy of targeting areas most in need should be applied to increase controls of the principal
pollutant sources to the Gulf, as has been proposed in the Gulf of Mexico geographic initiative. The an-
thropogenic sources of greatest concern for this region are identified by NOAA as sewage treatment
plans, urban runoff and septic systems. (More specific information  is available from the NOAA data set
about sources of concern for particular Shellfishing areas within each region.)

Objectives  with Indicators Reported on Regional or Pilot Basis: EMAP's
Near Coastal Demonstration Project

For other coastal objectives in OW's FY 1993 -1996 strategic plan, national indicators are not yet avail-
able. However, the EMAP near coastal demonstration for Mid-Atlantic estuaries (which was coordinated
with National Estuary Program and other special studies) provides an example of one year's indicators
for four of OW's other objectives: reducing hypoxia, protecting critical habitats, reducing sediment con-
tamination, and reducing marine debris. The statistically designed  and highly quality controlled EMAP
data indicate that dissolved oxygen below 5mg/l occurs on average in a significant portion (26%) of the
Mid-Atlantic estuaries. Sediment contamination by toxics is limited  in extent, posing a significant prob-
lem primarily in  "hot spots" in small embayments (sub-estuaries). Marine debris is observed in about
15% of the total area.  In future years, it will be possible to establish how much year to year variability
there is in the EMAP parameters. Eventually, trends in these indicators will be available.
The remaining coastal objectives involve reducing discharges. Nationally consistent data are not yet
available for NPDES loadings, but OW has worked with Region 5 to pilot the development of a procedure
for calculating pollutant loadings from Permit Compliance System emissions data, and plans to expand
this to the country as a whole over the next several years.

Objective for Which Indicator is Available but Not Reported Here
Data on the continuing decreases in sludge dumping at the 106 mile site off New York/New Jersey are
available from OW, but not included in this report due to space considerations.

Objective for Which Future Indicators will be Available:  Reducing Fishing
Bans Due to Toxic Contamination

Data on the number and locations of fishing bans and advisories due to toxic contamination are avail-
able from an electronic bulletin board maintained by EPA's Office of Science and Technology. The data-
base is updated annually. Currently, standards and monitoring programs vary across the states.  The
Office of Science and Technology is developing uniform guidelines for the sampling and analysis of fish/
shellfish  tissues. If the states adopt these guidelines as expected, the number of fishing bans and

11-29

-------
                                                                  ESTUARIES AND COASTAL WATERS

guidelines may prove to be a suitable measure of progress in the future.
Another indicator relevant to the objective of reducing fishing bans due to toxics will eventually be
NOAA's National Status and Trends data base, which is currently establishing a baseline of toxic con-
tamination of coastal fish, shellfish and sediments nationwide. NOAA Status and Trends toxics data are
not presented in this report because, with the exception of a few cases of outright bans on chemical
uses (e.g. lead in gasoline), they have not been tracked for a time period sufficiently long to reveal
trends in pollution. The NOAA monitoring design, with 250 to 300 stations nationwide, is not intended to
be used to compare locations to one another at a given time. It will, in the long run, establish whether
long-term trends are occurring at given stations or in broad regions of the country.

Objective for Which Indicator Not Proposed at This Time

No indicator of impacts of dredged material disposal has been reported at this time.

Summary:  Lack of Good Environmental Indicators of Coastal Status or
Trends Inhibits Geographic Targeting and Evaluation of Progress in
Coastal Protection

In summary, there are at present no high quality indicator data to evaluate national status or trends in
U.S. coastal conditions. NOAA is working to establish baselines for toxic fish contamination, and shell-
fish closure data will hopefully be consistent enough in the future to permit evaluation of improvements
and deteriorations in pollutant levels affecting shellfishing (primarily coliform bacteria). The lack of con-
sistent information on other types of degradation, including eutrophication and the resulting hypoxic
"dead zones," is serious; reduction of hypoxic "dead zones" is highlighted as a high priority objective in
OW's strategic plan. Eventually, if EMAP were fully implemented for near coastal waters, very reliable,
broad-based data on coastal status and trends would become available on a national level, although the
spatial scale will not support detailed assessments.

The absence of status and trend information at present makes it virtually impossible to evaluate the  suc-
cess of the nation's efforts at coastal protection.  It is also impossible at present for OW to obtain consis-
tent environmental data to compare coastal areas so that they can target their efforts to areas most  in
need. (It should be noted that good indicator data are expected to become available in the next several
years to evaluate progress for some individual estuaries for which EPA's National Estuary Program is estab-
lishing Comprehensive Management Plans. This information will however be site-specific, and will not, accord-
ing to present plans, support general evaluation of estuarine conditions or trends for the nation as a whole.)
                                                                                     II -30

-------
WETLANDS
  RELATIVE RISK RANKING

       Unfinished Business Report



       SAB Reducing Risk Report

       Regional Comparative Risk

  PUBLIC CONCERN (CoC)

       Wetlands
                                      Wetlands
 Human Health
 NR, cancer
 Low, non-cancer

 NR

 NR
 1988
 Med-Low
Ecological
High



High

High
 1990
 Med-Low
Welfare
Medium
High

NR
   AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION
       • Agricultural Sector
       • Geographical Initiatives (all)
        Core Research
• Pollution Prevention Legislation
« Multimedia Enforcement
• Clean Water Act
Problem Definition

A rarity of activities and physical alterations frequently result in damage to wetlands and habitat.
Channelization, dam construction and operation, surface and ground water withdrawals, construction
and flood control, irrigation distribution works, urban development, and the disposal and runoff of
dredge and fill materials are among the disturbances which can alter the quantity and flow patterns of
ground water and surface water, and thus damage wetlands. Chemical contamination which results
from physical changes of water flow and aquatic habitats (e.g., dredging of contaminated sediments) is
also included in this problem area.

Wetlands

Goals/Objectives

The.goal for wetlands, as stated in the Office of Water's (OW) FY 93 - 96 Strategic Plan, is to prevent
further net loss of the nation's wetlands, as measured by acreage and function, and, over time, to in-
crease the quality and quantity of wetlands. Three specific objectives were established for the 1993 to
1996 time period: 1) Reduce the net rate of wetland loss in the U.S. to one-half of the 1985 rate (as mea-
sured by the physical inventory in acres). 2) See the first states move into the net gain column, with the
acreage of wetlands gained exceeding that lost. 3) Develop by 1996: a) a framework for identifying
high-risk threats to the functional integrity ("health") of wetlands; and b) a strategy for reducing those
risks by fully applying the tools under the Clean Water Act to wetlands as waters of the U.S.

Strategies

OW's principal strategies to achieve the wetlands goal and objectives include empowering others to
protect wetland areas, developing a more comprehensive approach to ecological resource management,
11-31

-------
                                                                                    WETLANDS

and using existing statutory authority more effectively. Activities to empower others at the local, state,
and tribal level to better protect their wetlands include providing guidance, assistance, training, better
scientific tools, and creating opportunities for information sharing. OW is also working to greatly expand
its outreach program to help the public understand EPA's goals for wetlands protection and the rationale
for the Agency's actions. This is hoped to foster a better dialogue with those whose objectives may be
affected by wetlands programs. A component of this strategy is to develop enabling and flexible guid-
ance for State Wetlands Conservation Planning that facilitates increased state, local and private leader-
ship.  Activities include providing examples of how states have made progress: state wetlands forums;
statewide coordinating bodies; executive orders; consistency provisions; inventories, mapping and plan-
ning; public and private joint ventures; regulatory and non-regulatory approaches.
Another strategy to enable others is to enlarge partnerships with other federal agencies and other na-
tions.  OW is working with the  Corps of Engineers and other agencies to develop a program for restora-
tion of wetlands and other aquatic ecosystems in order to provide flood and erosion protection and in-
crease the nation's inventory of wetlands and associated habitat. EPA will also exert leadership for wet-
lands protection within the Executive Branch by:  1) serving as a model agency incorporating wetlands
protection throughout EPA programs, and 2) working cooperatively with the USDA, the land manage-
ment agencies, and water resource agencies. Finally, the OW Strategic Plan identifies the need to de-
velop and implement international agreements to protect wetlands, and provide information transfer and
assistance to other countries.
OW will provide technical assistance and incentives for those involved in the restoration and creation of
wetlands to remove pollutants in a manner that provides  other ecosystem functions (habitat, food chain
support, etc.).  This serves the goal of developing a more comprehensive approach to ecological re-
source management.  Statutory authority will be used to ensure environmentally appropriate protection of
all waters from discharges of dredged or fill material. OW will strive to streamline §404 decisions, with
more pro-active approaches (in advance of permit applications) to better protect particularly valuable
and vulnerable sites.  They will develop regulations and/or guidance for more effective and efficient ad-
ministration of the §404 program, and improve §404 program management systems for training, compli-
ance monitoring, data tracking, and consultant certification.

Environmental Indicator Results

The  Importance of Wetlands
Wetlands are critical habitats for fish and wildlife. They provide important habitat for about one third of
plant and animal  species federally listed as threatened or endangered, and essential nesting, migratory,
and wintering habitat for more than 50% of the nation's migratory bird species.
Wetlands also help regulate and maintain the hydrology  of rivers, lakes and streams by storing and
slowly releasing flood waters.  They help maintain water quality by storing nutrients, reducing sediment
loads, and reducing erosion.

Historical Trends in Wetland Losses

Although the recognition of the importance of wetlands is relatively recent, the trend toward their de-
struction is not a product of recent times. Since Colonial times, wetlands have been regarded as a hin-
drance to productive land use. Swamps, bogs, sloughs, and other wetland areas were considered
wastelands to be drained, filled, or manipulated.

In Colonial times, the area that now constitutes the 50 United States contained an estimated 391 million
acres of wetlands.  Of this total, about a third occurred in Alaska. Today the 50 states contain an esti-
mated 274 million acres.
                                                                                      11-32

-------
WETLANDS

Summary of Findings
The lower 48 states lost an estimated 53% of their original wetlands since the 1780s.  On average over
60 acres of wetlands per hour have been lost in the lower 48 states between the 1780s and 1980s. Fig-
ure 19 shows losses by state. California has lost the largest percentage of original wetlands (91%).
Florida has lost the most acreage (9.3 million acres).  One in two states has lost over a million acres of
wetlands.
Wetland loss data are presented as percentages of the estimated original wetland of each state. The histo-
gram in Figure 20 provides a state by state absolute loss of wetland acreage and 1780s acreage estimates.
A follow-up study conducted by the USFWS in 1991 investigated wetland status and trends from the
1970s to the 1980s. The results document a continuing loss of wetland acreage. An estimated 1.1% of
estuarine wetlands and 2.5% of inland wetlands were lost from the lower 48 states during the nine-year
study period. Agricultural land uses accounted for 54% of the conversions from wetland to upland. Urban
expansion accounts for 5% of the conversion, with other land uses making up the balance of the losses.
Trends in the estuarine system indicate that estuarine wetlands declined at about 6,600 acres/year.
Most of these losses were along the Gulf Coast.

Methods for Estimating Wetland Coverages
Land use, soils and drainage statistics were used to augment and validate historical records to derive
the 1780s wetland acreage estimates. Estimates for the 1980s were derived from the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service's (USFWS) National Wetlands Inventory (NWI). Coverage gaps in the NWI were filled in
by the USFWS by using the best available data.

Estimates were based on the definition of wetlands in use prior to 1991, by the U.S. Department of Interior.

Source of this Indicator Data
This map and text explanation are derived from reports and data compiled by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service.  The results of this work have been published in the report Wetland Losses in the United States
1780s to 1980s, by Thomas E. Dahl, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Wetlands Inventory, 1990.

Conclusion:  Comparison  of Indicator Results to

Strategies and Objectives

Objectives for Which Indicator is Reported:  Reducing Loss of Wetlands
For the objectives of reducing the net rate of national  wetland loss to half the 1985 rate by 1995, and
moving some states to achieving net gains of wetlands, good indicators will be available based on the
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service wetland loss data presented here. Using data in this report, it is too early
to tell whether the rate of wetland loss has changed since 1985.

Objective for Which Indicator is Not Available:  Preventing Threats to the
Functional Integrity ("Quality") of Wetlands

No indicator data are yet available nationally to determine whether the functional integrity of wetlands is
being maintained. All current indicator data refer to the quantity, but not the quality, of wetlands. EPA's
ORD and other agencies are currently developing procedures for classifying the integrity of wetlands.
EMAP's planned wetlands component will incorporate these methods as they become available.
11-33

-------
Figure 19.  U.S. Wetlands:  Recent Status and Historical Trends
                                                                                                   54
                                                                                              Background Shading
                                                                                              Shading expresses percent
                                                                                              of state's total land mass
                                                                                              which was wetlands during
                                                                                              the 1980s.

                                                                                               B  > 20%

                                                                                               11  11%-20%
                            Data quality; Moderate; historical paleontology data cross-checked as
                            possible, some estimates Involved.

                            Relevance to EPA programs; Very relevant to "no net loss" goal.
 n  
-------
WETLANDS
Figure 20. Wetland Acreage Lost in the Lower 48 States:  1780s to 1980s
          Florida
        Louisiana
           Texas
       Minnesota
        Michigan
   North Carolina
       Mississippi
        Arkansas
       Wisconsin
           Illinois
        Alabama
         Georgia
          Maine
   South Carolina
          Indiana
            Ohio
        California
     North Dakota
         Missouri
            Iowa
        Nebraska
       Oklahoma
     South Dakota
        New York
          Oregon
        Colorado
        Wyoming
       Tennessee
          Virginia
        Maryland
        Kentucky
      New Jersey
      Washington
         Montana
     Pennsylvania
          Arizona
            Idaho
          Kansas
   Massachusetts
            Utah
      New Mexico
      Connecticut
          Nevada
        Delaware
         Vermont
   New Hampshire
     West Virginia
     Rhode Island
Black-filled area
represents 1980s
wetlands acreage
estimate     I
                              End line represents
                              1780s acreage
                              estimate
             White-filled area represents
             acreage wetlands lost 1780s
             to 1980s
                        T
                            5,000,000
10,000,000     15,000,000    20,000,000    25,000,000
                                                   Acres
 Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Wetland Losses in the United States: 1780s to 1980s, Dahl, 1991.
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1992
 11-35

-------
                                                                             DRINKING WATER
                                   Drinking Water



  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                       Human Health      Ecological       Welfare
       Unfinished Business Report          Med-High, cancer  NR             Low
                                       High, non-cancer

       SAB Reducing Risk Report           High             NR             NR

       Regional Comparative Risk           Med-High         NR

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                       1988             1990
                                       Med-High         Med-Low

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

       • Agricultural Sector          •  Pollution Prevention           • Indian Programs
       • Ground Water Cluster       •  Small Community Project       • State Capacity
       • Watershed Initiative
Problem Definition

As drinking water arrives at the tap, it may contain a wide variety of contaminants from both natural and
man-made sources, and point and non-point sources. Since many of the contaminants can be traced to
other problem areas, drinking water risk evaluation will involve much double-counting with those other
problem areas (Industrial Wastewater Discharges, POTW Discharges, Nonpoint Source Discharges,
Storage Tanks, and non-hazardous waste problem areas, etc.). Drinking water is included as a problem
area because remediation treatment options can occur either at the source of contamination (the other
problem areas) or at the delivery system of the drinking water (treatment or switch to alternative sup-
plies). The drinking water program's principal focus is on systems that serve 25  or more people and are
therefore covered by the Safe Drinking Water Act.  A secondary non-regulatory emphasis of the program
is on those systems which serve fewer than 25 people. Pollutants of concern include microbial contami-
nants, disinfection by-products, lead, other inorganics (such as heavy metals), radionuclides, toxic or-
ganics, and fluoride from natural sources.

Drinking Water

Goals/Objectives

The goal for drinking water, according to the Office of Water FY1993 -1996 Strategic Plan, is to ensure
that all Americans receive high quality drinking water sufficient to protect their health.  By 1996, three
objectives should be achieved:  1) reduce the number of people exposed to drinking water from public
water systems that violate national primary drinking water regulations through compliance with the new
drinking water regulations for: pathogen  bacteria, viruses, protozoan cysts, etc.; lead; radionuclides -
radon; by-products of disinfection; organic chemicals; and other inorganics - nitrates; 2) report monitor-
ing information on contaminants in drinking water provided by all but the smallest public water systems
to the public and regulatory agencies for the 83 contaminants listed in the 1986 SDWA amendments;
and 3) build stronger state drinking water regulatory programs with EPA primacy to provide increased

                                                                                    11-36

-------
DRINKING WATER

public health protection through expanded programs, including adoption and implementation of new
federal regulations.

Strategies
Two strategies are identified to support the goal and objectives: education and empowerment of states
and individuals, and strategic implementation of statutory mandates. OW intends to work closely with
states to adopt and adequately implement new regulations, and therefore enable states to maintain pri-
macy. OW has also developed a "mobilization strategy" to build state capacity, address the problems of
small  systems, and provide public education.
Strategic implementation of statutory mandates will be achieved through three key directions: 1) publish
regulations that set standards that are protective of public health, yet implementable, for a total of 108
contaminants, including new requirements for filtration and disinfection and expanded requirements for
control of disinfection by-products; 2) collect monitoring information to determine compliance status with
the 108 new standards that will be in place by 1996; and 3) increase the enforcement program at the
state and federal levels to return significant non-compliers of federal standards to compliance, and to
maintain an overall high compliance rate.

Environmental  Indicator Results

The principal risk reduction objective identified in the Drinking Water Strategic Plan FY1992- 1996\s to
reduce the population exposed to drinking water from community water systems that violate national
primary drinking water standards (NPDWR).  Exceedances of maximum contaminant levels (MCLs)
which violate NPDWRs pose a direct risk to public health because the population is exposed directly to
harmful contaminants in the water they drink. EPA requires that all violations of NPDWRs be reported
quarterly; this information is directly retrievable though the Federal Data Reporting System (FRDS).

Results for FY 1991 Showing Population Exposed
OW prepared a report that showed population exposed to contaminants in drinking water during
FY 1991, using FRDS information as the data source. Information on a national basis showed that over
18 million people (or about 8% of the population) were provided water from community water systems
that violated one or more MCLs at least once during FY 1991.
The bar charts presented below display the FY 1991 exposure data in several ways.  Figure 21 shows
the population served by community water systems in violation one or more times in FY 1991, broken out
by major contaminant group and by type of violation (MCL, monitoring or reporting). Of the 46 million
people served by water systems in violation, approximately 12 million were exposed to water with micro-
biological MCL violations. This is by far the greatest exposure risk and with the related turbidity viola-
tions, represent population exposed to contaminants posing an acute risk to public health. The other MCL
violations represent chemical or radiological contaminants, which generally represent a health risk to the pub-
lic from long-term, chronic exposure. The population exposed to systems with monitoring and reporting
violations is much greater than MCL violations and indicates where drinking water quality is either un-
known or not properly communicated to the public at least part of the year.
Figure 22 shows the duration of exposure (in months) to the violations reported in FY 1990.  Although
FY 1991 data on duration of the violations was not available, the program believes this holds true for
FY 1991 as well. This provides strong evidence that most of the exposure to water in violation of the
drinking water standards is of short duration and that most of the population is at risk for a short period.
Figure 23 shows a comparison by EPA region of the size and percent of the population exposed  to MCL
violations during FY 1991.  Based on this information, the population exposed to contaminants from
drinking water ranged from about 4% in Region 3, to 15% in Regions 10 and 2. Note that data quality by
region varied considerably in FY 1991  and that this comparison may be partly due to the data quality
considerations rather than actual differences.

II -37

-------
                                                                                DRINKING WATER
Figure 21.  Population Served by Community Water Systems in Violation of
              Drinking Water Standards, FY 1991
              23.1
                                       Monitoring/ Reporting Violations

                                  I   I  Maximum Contaminant Level Violations
                                   ' Total population served by CWS is 233 million.
                                    Total population served by CWS in violation is 46 million.
                                   Data quality:  Useful.
                                   Relevance to program: There are known problems with data
                                   quality due to inconsistencies in self-reporting of regulated
                                   facilities, state enforcement and reporting capabilities, and
                                   laboratory practices.
            Microbiological    Turbidity
Inorganics     Organics
                                   0.5
                                   ••i

                                   Radiological
Source: EPA.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1992

Figure 22.  Population Served by Community Water Systems - Duration of
              Violations, FY 1990
        12  T
     If)
     o
        10
         8
    -a
     CD

     CD
    oo
         4
     Q.
Source: EPA.
      Monitoring/ Reporting Violations

      Maximum Contaminant Level Violations
Questionable coding of monitored/reported data by
Florida resulted in a large number of these violations.
Although data not available for 1991, pattern
expected to be similar to that in 1990.
               Data quality; Useful.
                                                Relevance to program; There
               are known problems with data
               quality due to inconsistencies in
               self-reporting of regulated facili-
               ties, state enforcement and re-
               porting capabilities, and labora-
               tory practices.
                                 45678

                                   Violation Duration (in months)
                                    10     11
                                        12
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1992
                                                                                       11-38

-------
%   Figure 23.  Percentage of Population Exposed to Community Water Systems (CWS) with MCL
'                Violations, FY 1991
to
                  16 T
                                 4,374,000
Total Population Exposed
to MCL Violations = 18,000,000
Total Population served by community water
systems = 233,000,000
Approximately 9% of the total population
is exposed to microbial violations
                                                                                                       1,120,000
                   0
                                                                       o
                                                                       gj
                                                                                                                          O
Source: EPA.
1 2
Data qualify: Useful.
Relevance to program:
regulated facilities, sta

3
4
5 6
EPA Region
7
There are known problems with data quality due to
te enforcement and reporting capabilities, and laboi




8
Inconsistencies
•atory practices.

9 10
In self-reporting of


     Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1992

-------
                                                                               DRINKING WATER

Usefulness of Indicator as Surrogate for Exposure

The indicator provides only a very rough surrogate for actual exposure and is not a surrogate for actual
public health risk. The degree of risk from drinking water with contaminant levels above the MCL varies
for several reasons (contaminant, whether the risk is acute or chronic, and the duration and degree of
exceedance).  Information through FRDS shows only that the water system was in violation, not what
proportion of the population served by the water system consumed the contaminated water.
Finding adequate and comparable data for analysis of trends over time is also extremely difficult.  Use of
this information to compare progress from one period to the next must start from the same regulatory
baseline. We are currently developing new and revised standards at a very fast pace. At the end of FY
1990, regulations for 30 contaminants were in effect. At the end of FY 1992, regulations will be in effect
for 62 contaminants and much of the initial 30 will have been revised, some with new MCL levels.
Finally, using exceedance of an MGL as the indicator for exposure ignores contaminants detected in the
drinking water  but not as high as the MCL. More complete drinking water quality information could be
reported from a parametric database, similar to what is reported in STORET for an ambient water quality
data.  No national drinking water quality database currently exists.

The Issue of Data Quality
The quality, timeliness, and completeness of violation data and related system information is only as
good as the public water system self-monitoring, the capacity and capability of certified laboratories,
and the state primacy agency data management and reporting to EPA. At present, the data quality of
the information in FRDS is questionable in many states.  GAO concluded in a recent report that the-com-
pliance rate is considerably overstated, raising questions about the integrity of the compliance monitor-
ing system and overall data quality control.
Data quality will also depend on the ability of the states to implement future compliance  monitoring and report-
ing requirements from the many new regulations. State oversight of future monitoring and reporting is more
complex, and in some cases requires greater expertise than is now available to meet current requirements.

Current and Future Activities  to Improve Environmental Indicators
Improving Data Quality.  Improvement in the quality of the drinking water environmental indicators
is based on the near-term and long-term improvements to the FRDS system. Several major initiatives are
underway to improve state data management systems.  The initial round of a mission needs assessment
to develop the  next generation of the Federal Reporting Data System (FRDS) has been completed. We
expect substantial improvements in data quality in the near term based on state data management im-
provements, but the ability to sustain this  progress depends on improving the overall system integrity.
Currently, the activity is a very high priority but is extremely budget-limited. No alternative source of in-
formation to report exposure is available without major new expenditures.
Better Surrogates for Exposure.  Using FRDS, we can report population exposed to contaminants in
drinking water broken down by water source (surface and ground), by contaminant group, by new and old
standards, by state by urban vs. rural, etc. We could also report based on severity and duration of the viola-
tion (e.g., SNCs). Alternatively, reporting  could be based on percentage of violations returned to compli-
ance in a certain time period. We are looking at various cuts from the same database for FY 1992 and later.
Integration with Ground Water Program.  Exposure to contaminants from drinking water is an
excellent indicator for progress in source control programs as well as a good surrogate for ambient ground
water and surface water quality. We are working closely with the ground water program to use the drinking
water indicator  to describe and track changes in ground water quality.  Limits to use of FRDS to show
progress in other programs are: (1) drinking water monitoring data in FRDS is on finished water only; (2)
geographic comparisons are limited because no latitude/longitude information is available; and (3) data
quality may vary as information is disaggregated.
                                                                                      11-40

-------
DRINKING WATER
                      Comparison of Environmental
 Indicator Results to Strategies and
Objective for Which Status Indicators Is Available:  Reducing the
Populations Exposed to Conventional Contaminants

The indicator presented is a status measure only at this time, so it is not yet possible to evaluate
progress in diminishing public exposure to the conventional contaminants. OW plans to use these data
as a baseline for program evaluation in the future. And as standards (Maximum Contaminant Levels) are
set for increasing numbers of toxic chemicals, OW will report on the percentages of the population
whose drinking water does and does not comply with those standards.
This is a step forward from previous data reported by OW, as it estimates the numbers of people ex-
posed to water not meeting standards.  Previous indicator progress reports have typically provided the
numbers of public water systems in non-compliance, rather than the numbers of people exposed, so this
is a more risk-related indicator.

Making Information Available to the Public
Making information on public water system compliance with standards readily available to the public is
an objective in OW's strategic plan. As acknowledged by OW in the description of this indicator, there
are important problems with data accuracy and quality control that they would like to address in coming
years. Meeting this objective is not presently assured, however, because OW is not sure they will have
the resources necessary to implement the compliance monitoring, quality control and system improve-
ments found necessary by their needs survey and a recent GAO report.
11-41

-------
                                                                             GROUND WATER
  RELATIVE RISK RANKING

      Unfinished Business Report



      SAB Reducing Risk Report

      Regional Comparative Risk



  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                   Ground Water
Human Health
Low, cancer
NR, non-cancer

NR

Med-High-Med
1988
NR
Ecological
Medium
Low

Low
1990
NR
Welfare
Minor
Low
  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION
       • Agricultural Sector
       • Chesapeake Bay
       • Mexican Border
       • Caribbean
       • Clean Water Act
• Pollution Prevention Legislation
• Gulf of Mexico
• Ground Water
• RCRA
Problem  Definition

All forms of ground water pollution, including sources not counted in other problem areas, compose this
problem area. These pollution sources include fertilizer and pesticide leaching, septic systems, road
salt, all injection wells, waste treatment, storage and disposal sites, Superfund sites, nonwaste material
stockpiles, pipelines, and irrigation practices.  The list of possible contaminants is extensive, including
nutrients, toxic inorganics and organics, oil and petroleum products, and microbes.

Ground Water

Goals/Objectives

In the Office of Water's (OW) FY1993 -1996 Strategic Plan, the goal for ground water is to prevent ad-
verse effects to human health and the environment and to protect the environmental integrity of the
nation's ground water resources. Four strategic planning objectives have been identified to support the
achievement of this goal: 1) ensure that currently used and reasonably expected drinking water sup-
plies, both public and private, do not present health  risks and are preserved for future generations; 2)
ensure that ground water that is closely hydrologically connected to surface waters does not interfere
with the attainment of surface water quality standards; 3) establish indicators for assessing and tracking
reduction in risks to ground water by 1993; and 4) eliminate 100% of identified hazardous waste shallow
injection wells and other known endangering shallow wells and ensure continued compliance of all other wells.

Strategies

Strategies to achieve the goal and objectives include: educating and empowering others; institutional-
izing pollution prevention and multi-media management approaches, and; developing more comprehensive
                                                                                   11-42

-------
GROUND WATER

approaches to ground water management through improved understanding of the resource and target-
ing activities based on risk. The following highlights the key direction pursued by OW to implement
these strategies.
Efforts to educate and empower states and individuals include support for the development and imple-
mentation of State Comprehensive Ground Water Protection Programs, and support for State Wellhead
Protection Programs, as key components of Comprehensive Programs. OW is also working to provide
the scientific/technical, institutional, and financial tools necessary for state and local decision makers to
understand the risks and protect their ground water supplies from those sources not regulated by the
federal government.  In addition, this strategy includes enlarging partnerships with other federal agen-
cies. The aim is to, in particular, further integrate other EPA/federal programs such as the agency's pes-
ticides in ground water strategy, SDWA, RCRA, Superfund, CWA, through the ground water policy activi-
ties including the ground water regulatory cluster and regional coordination initiative.
OW is working to institutionalize pollution prevention and multi-media management approaches. Priority
is being given to preventing pollution from runoff from transportation facilities, landfills, construction sites,
etc. through implementing NPDES storm water permitting requirements for discharges associated with
industrial activities impacting ground water.
The strategy to develop a more comprehensive approach to ecological resource management is sup-
ported  by efforts to increase the understanding of the ground water interrelationships. An approach is
being developed to focus on areas with multiple impacts, e.g. ground water, surface water, drinking wa-
ter contamination.  This strategy is further supported by efforts to target activities based on  risk.  OW is
working to set national goals for collecting and analyzing ground water quality data by: 1) testing, refin-
ing, and expanding EPA's existing set of ground water indicators; 2) providing a national baseline of
ground water quality data for reporting under §305(b); and 3) developing a uniform and accessible ap-
proach to ground water data collection and management.
OW is also developing tools to define the inherent sensitivity of ground water systems to contamination.
On-going risk-based targeting focuses on shallow Class IV/V wells that endanger drinking water sources
in geographically sensitive areas such as wellhead protection areas.


Proposed Environmental  Indicators  (Current/

Future  Activities)

The Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water (OGWDW) has developed environmental indicators for.
both the ground water and drinking water programs. Currently available data for the surface and ground
water public water supplies indicator, which is MCL violations in relationship to population served, is
presented in the drinking water section. Future indicator refinement for both programs is now underway.

Ground  Water Environmental Indicators
The Ground Water Protection Division has been actively working on identifying, developing  and testing a
group of environmental indicators which cross-cut ground water related programs.
Background

Between 1986 and 1990, the Office of Ground Water Protection, now the OGWDW Ground Water Protec-
tion Division:

 • Conducted a workshop with EPA program offices, other federal agencies, state governments,
    public interest groups, and technical organizations and identified five cross cutting ground water
    environmental indicators:
    - Maximum Contaminant  Level (MCL) violations by public drinking water supplies;


11-43

-------
                                                                                GROUND WATER

    - On-site and off-site contamination at hazardous waste sites;
    - Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) concentrations in ground water (as an indicator or waste site
      and industrial site activity);
    - Nitrate concentrations in ground water (as an indicator of area-wide sources of contamination);
      and
    - Extent of pesticide use (as an indicator of area- wide pesticide contamination).
  • Requested voluntary state reporting of one or more of the indicators in the 1990 Clean Water Act,
    Section 305(b) biennial National Water Quality Inventory Report to Congress (34 states provided
    some information).
  • Conducted three state ground water indicator pilot projects (ID, MM, NJ) during 1990 to test the five
    indicators. The three pilot studies showed that there are enough sources of data available to begin
    some indicator reporting right now. There is sufficient data available to partially meet the objectives
    of the MCL and nitrate indicators. Waste site data was available but difficult to compile because it
    was primarily located in paper files.
  • Participated in the USGS National Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) Federal/State Workgroup
    to select ground water chemical, physical, biological parameters for 60 ground water/surface water
    study areas (data available for first 20 areas in 1996). This information will be used in future ground
    water indicator reporting.

Current and Future Activities

In May 1991 EPA released the report, Protecting the Nation's Ground Water: EPA's Strategy for the
1990s. This is the result of an EPA Ground Water Task Force which, with state participation, developed
concrete principles and objectives to ensure effective and consistent decision-making in agency pro-
grams which affect ground water. The strategy also endorsed Comprehensive State Ground Water Pro-
tection Programs to promote complete protection at the state and local level. Collecting and reporting
ground water indicator data will help the agency and states track trends in ground water quality and
support better decision-making and priority-setting for their ground water protection efforts. Current and
future OGWDW activities to further refine and implement ground water indicators are:

  • Development of a technical assistance document (TAD), due early 1992, for states to use in future
    305(b) reporting based on the results of the indicator pilot project findings with review by EPA
    headquarter programs, regions and states.
  • Regional Ground Water Round Tables with states to develop adequacy criteria for a State Compre-
    hensive Ground Water Program which includes criteria for measures of success, and monitoring
    and information management.
  • Coordinate with the other EPA headquarters, regional program offices,  and states to develop and
    implement a meaningful and practical strategy to further refine/develop, collect and report data on
    cross-cutting ground water indicators of ground water quality. This plan will be coordinated through
    the EPA State Programs and EPA Ground Water Regulatory Cluster Workgroup.
  » Development of consistent data collection protocols to improve the accessibility, quality, and use-
    fulness of ground water indicator data. To begin moving toward data consistency, EPA along with
    the states and other federal agency work group participants developed a set of the most critical
    data elements for ground water quality information. The Ground Water Minimum Set of Data Ele-
    ments for Ground Water Quality will be finalized in the 2nd  quarter of FY92, and the EPA Order re-
    quiring their use for EPA and contractors will be amended.
                                                                                       11-44

-------
III.  Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response
                       Superfund/Abandoned Sites



  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                    Human Health      Ecological       Welfare
      Unfinished Business Report          Med-High, cancer   Medium        Medium
                                    Low, non-cancer

      SAB Reducing Risk Report          Low             NR            NR

      Regional Comparative Risk          Med-Low         Medium

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                    1988             1990
                                    High             High

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

      • Federal Facilities          • Ground Water
      • RCRA                  • Contaminated Media
Problem  Definition

This category includes hazardous waste sites not covered by RCRA, but by Superfund. Most are inac-
tive and abandoned. Sites can be placed on the National Priority List (NPL), deleted from the NPL, can-
didates for the NPL, or simply be noted by the federal government or states as unmanaged locations
containing hazardous waste.  Sites may contaminate ground or surface water, pollute the air, or directly
expose humans and wildlife. There are many toxic pollutants and mixtures of pollutants. Radiation from
hazardous "mixed waste" in Superfund sites is also included in this problem area.


Superfund/Abandoned Sites

Goafs/Objectives

Superfund has several objectives identified under the strategic plan, including: 1) improve the identifica-
tion and remediation of hazardous and petroleum waste sites; 2) ensure the long term effectiveness of
response actions under Superfund; 3) make greater use of innovative technology for site remediation;
4) better integrate OSWER's cleanup programs; and 5) enhance state capabilities to clean up hazard-
ous and petroleum waste sites.

Strategies

To improve identification and remediation of hazardous and petroleum waste sites, the strategy includes
developing a risk-based approach that uses comparable standards and criteria to identify and focus
cleanup resources on the most environmentally significant sites; accelerating cleanups by increased use
of CERCLA enforcement authority and by rapid remedial response capability in redesigned emergency
response contracts; and reducing cleanup costs through streamlined processes and fasten more effec-
tive cleanup techniques. The enforcement strategy to reduce the use of public funds for cleanup includes

                                                                             111-1

-------
SUPERFUND /ABANDONED SITES

improved searches for PRPs, issuance of model orders for all response actions, and increased use of
unilateral administrative orders as necessary.
To ensure the long-term effectiveness of response actions, the strategy is to encourage the use of per-
manent remedies which use treatment technologies reducing the volume, toxicity, or mobility of signifi-
cant contaminants. OSWER plans to establish a data collection and analysis protocol to evaluate the
effectiveness and reliability of remedies used.
To help achieve environmentally sound waste management, OSWER will make greater use of innovative
technology for site remediation.  This includes improving the awareness of such technologies among
private and other public sector entities; identifying impediments to the use of these technologies and
implementing an action agenda to reduce or eliminate these; and increasing state and industry capabili-
ties through focused, multi-party technical assistance projects.
To prepare for and respond to hazardous releases, the strategy includes better integrating the policies
and procedures of CERCLA with those of other cleanup programs authorized under the Oil Pollution Act,
RCRA's hazardous and petroleum waste subtitles, and the Clean Water Act. By FY1994, OSWER plans
to develop a joint CERCLA/RCRA strategy and policy on lead in soil cleanups; a joint policy on cleanups
of ground water contaminated with DNAPLs; and a better integrated technical training program. More-
over, OSWER plans to establish EPA's position on the state role under CERCLA and to encourage the
use of Superfund Memoranda of Agreement to ensure mutually satisfactory region-state working relation-
ships. To bolster state capabilities, OSWER plans to identify and help address resource, staff and tech-
nical expertise constraints to increased involvement. States will be assisted through core program coop-
erative agreements, training, and pilot projects.

Additional Comments

OSWER defined many measures of success for Superfund, including demonstrable annual progress to-
ward achieving faster time frames in both cleanup and enforcement, PRP activity levels, and state activity.


Environmental Indicator Results

Superfund is the federal program for protecting human health and the environment from abandoned or
uncontrolled hazardous waste sites throughout the United States. Sites placed on the NPL pose the
most significant threats to human health and the environment. They are addressed through long-term
cleanup and monitoring. The Agency also addresses immediate health threats at hazardous waste sites,
including both NPL and non-NPL sites.

Reducing Immediate Threats

When an uncontrolled hazardous waste site is identified, Superfund's first responsibility is to respond to
immediate threats to human health and the environment.  Such activities include treating, removing or
containing wastes; installing site security; providing alternative water supplies; or relocating populations.
In reporting progress toward the goal of reducing immediate threats, Superfund counts those sites
where acute threats have been addressed (both NPL and non-NPL sites) and where progress toward the
achievement of long-term health  and environmental goals has been made (NPL sites only Figure 1).
These are the sites where progress is measured by the indicator "Reducing Immediate Threats: Control-
ling Threats to People and the Environment."

Since 1980, Superfund activities have resulted in making 1,760 sites safer by reducing acute threats
(Figure 2). Of the 1,760 sites, 507 are NPL sites, and 1,253 are non-NPL sites. For the NPL sites, the
data reported reflects sites where acute threats have been addressed or where progress toward the
achievement of long-term cleanup goals has been accomplished. Of the 507 NPL sites, 85 sites have
been made safer in the period between October 1989 and December 1990. Since 1980, alternative wa-
ter supplies have been provided to 411,000 people at 92 sites, and 4,000 people have been temporarily

III -2

-------
                 Figure  1. NPL Sites At Which Progress Was Reported In 1991
               Sites with  Sites where clean up
               progress   has not yet been started
Alaska             3
Puerto Rico          1
Hawaii             0
Pacific Trust Territories  3
3
8
7
1
Progress was reported in cleaning up 507 sites.

Each blue square represents a site at which
progress was reported.

Each red square represents  a site at which
clean up has yet to be initiated.

-------
831
          Figure 2.  Actions to Reduce Immediate Threats at Superfund Sites

          Since  1980, Superfund activities have resulted in making 1,760 sites safer by reducing acute threats. Of the 1,760 sites, 507 are NPL sites,
          and 1,253 are non-NPL sites.
"il
  J> ro ••+
          NPL Sltes:Nature of Actions Taken to Protect
             Human Health and the Environment

Reducing Immediate Threats: Total NPL Sites


                            85  | |  =507 NPL Sites


Removal, Treatment, or Containment


          ^^^^^ 74  | | =403 Sites


Site Security

          •Ffl
                    = 264 Sites
             LI/

Alternative Water


           : 92 Sites
                                                Data quality! Moderate;
                                                data retrievals may differ
                                                across sites.
                                                Relevance as Indicator!
                                                Moderate; a cross
                                                between activity measure
                                                and environmental
                                                Indicator.
  411,000 people provided with an
  alternative water supply.
Population Relocation


         = 26 Sites
4,000 people either temporarily or
permanently relocated.
                    11980-September30,1989 Q October 1,1989-December31,1990

                     Note 1) Number of actions add up to more than total number of sites.
                           Any site may have more than one kind of cleanup action.

                     Note 2) Total number of NPL Sites is 1236 as of December 31,1990.
                                                                                                        Non-NPL Sites
                                                                                         Nature of Actions Taken to Protect Human Health and the
                                                                                                           Environment
                                                                                   Reducing Immediate Threats: Non-NPL Sites
                                                                                                                                 = 1,253 Sites
                                                                                   Removal, Treatment, or Containment
                                                              = 267 Sites
                                                                       Data quality! Moderate; data
     retrievals may differ across
     sites.
     Relevance as indicator:
                                                                       Moderate; a cross between
                                                                       activity measure and
                                                                       environmental indicator.
            = 73 Sites


Population Relocation


          = 67 Sites
More than 37,000 people provided with
an alternative water supply.
More than 25,000 people either temporarily
or permanently relocated.
                                                1980 - September 30,1989  Q October 1,1989- December 31,1990

                                                Note 1) Number of actions add up to more than total number of sites.
                                                      Any site may have more than one kind of cleanup action.

                                                Note 2) Number of sites with these actions is based on a study
                                                      universe of 578 sites.
          Source: Superfund: Reporting on Cleanup Activities through Environmental Indicators. FY1991 Update. USEPA.
                                          TJ
                                          m
                                          33
                                          Tl
                                          1
                                                                                                             o
                                                                                                             GO
          Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
SUPERFUND / ABANDONED SITES

or permanently relocated away from 26 sites.

The net result of Superfund cleanup work at NPL sites has been to reduce the potential risks from expo-
sure to hazardous waste for more than 23.5 million people who live within four miles of these sites. This
work includes the elimination of threats posed by direct contact with hazardous waste to more than
950,000 people, 580,000 of whom were threatened by contact with land contamination and 411,000 of
whom have had alternative water supplied.

Activities to reduce immediate threats at non-NPL sites includes emergency, short-term cleanup work.
At the overwhelming majority of these sites, the actions taken either treated, contained, or removed the
hazardous wastes.  Of the 1,253 non-NPL sites currently being addressed, 222 have been made safer in
the period between October 1989 and December 1990.

Progress Toward Permanent Cleanup Goals

When an uncontrolled hazardous waste site is identified as posing a severe and persistent threat to hu-
man health and the environment, Superfund places the site on the NPL.  It then studies the site, and in
coordination with other governmental agencies, sets long-term goals for site cleanup. These goals are
defined in terms of the contaminant levels necessary to be protective of human health and the environ-
ment in each of the environmental media.  Progress in achieving these goals for each of three media -
land, surface water, and ground water - is measured with the indicator "Progress toward Permanent
Cleanup Goals."
Since 1980, Superfund has made progress toward achieving permanent cleanup goals at 373 NPL sites
(Rgure 3). This is an increase of 55 sites since September 1989.  At 97 of the 373 sites, Superfund has
fully achieved the goals for cleaning one or more of the affected media; at the other 276 sites, it has
made measurable progress toward cleanup goals. Cleanup activities have reduced or eliminated land
contamination at 333 sites, surface water contamination at 64 sites, and ground water contamination at
97 sites.  This represents increases of 59 sites with progress in the cleanup of land contamination, 21
sites with surface water contamination, and 5 sites with ground water contamination.  In addition, these
activities have eliminated the threat of direct contact with hazardous waste at 196 of the 333 sites with
land contamination, thereby protecting more than 580,000 people who live within a 1-mile radius of these sites.

Bringing  Technology to  Bear

Superfund uses a variety of technologies to reduce immediate threats and achieve permanent cleanup
goals. This variety reflects the diversity of contaminants that must be dealt with and the media in which
they occur.  Increasingly, Superfund relies on treatment technologies designed to reduce the volume
and toxicity of the hazardous wastes.  For example, of sites where remedies were selected to control the
source of contamination (source control), the use of treatment-based remedies has been increasing
since 1982, with 79% of source control remedies using treatment in 1990 (Figure 4).  In addition, treat-
ment technologies were utilized at 203 of the 373 NPL sites where progress toward long-term cleanup
has been documented, an increase of 52 since September 1989 (Figure 5).

The volumes of waste that Superfund has managed are another measure of the application of technologies
and the achievement of cleanup goals. Although not a direct measure of risk reduction, the volumes
addressed indicate the magnitude of the Superfund program and help explain its duration and cost.
Ill -5

-------
                                                                       SUPERFUND /ABANDONED SITES
Figure 3.  NPL Sites with Progress Toward Permanent Cleanup Goals

Since 1980, Superfund has made progress toward achieving permanent cleanup goals at 373 NPL sites.
                      Sites with Cleanup Progress
                      Land
                      Surface Water
                                   = 64 Sites
                       Ground Water
                                                               = 373 Sites
                                                            = 333 Sites
                                        = 97 Sites
                     11980-September30.1989 Q Octoberl, 1989-December31,1990

                     Note 1) Any site may have more than one medium contaminated.
                     Note 2) Total number of NPL Sites is 1236 as of December 31,1990.
                Data quality; Moderate; data retrievals may differ across sKes.
                Relevance as indicator;  Moderate; a cross between activity
                measure and environmental Indicator.
 Source: Superfund: Reporting on Cleanup Activities through Environmental Indicators. FY1991 Update. USEPA.
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
                                                                                           III -6

-------
SUPERRJND / ABANDONED SITES


     Figure 4. Bringing Technology to Bean  The Increasing Use of Treatment at
                 NPL Sites
     Superlund is increasingly relying on treatment technologies to reduce the volume and toxicity of the hazardous
     wastes.
                    80 ••
       Percent of
       Source
       Control
       Remedies
       Using
       Treatment
                    60 ••
                   40 ••
                   20 - • 16%    16%    16%
                         1982    1983    1984   1965   1966   1987   1988   1989   1990
                                  Number of NPL Stes with Tr**»n*nt R*m*
-------
                                                               SUPERFUND /ABANDONED SITES
Figure 5.   Bringing Technology to Bear: Volumes Managed at Super-fund
             Sites
While not a measure of actual risk reduction, the sheer volumes of waste managed at Superfund sites
indicate the magnitude of the Superfund program.
Pathway
Land Surface:
Soil
Solid Waste
Liquid Waste
Ground Water:
Surface Water:
Sediments
Cumulative Volumes
Managed
Cumulative Volume
1980 - December 31, 1990
5,930,000 cubic yards
7,000,000 cubic yards
1 ,055,000,000 gallons
6,350,000,000 gallons
31 6,000,000 gallons
1 5,000 cubic yards
 Source: Superfund: Reporting on Cleanup Activities through Environmental Indicators. FY1991 Update. USEPA.	
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991


Conclusion:  Comparison off Indicator Results to
Strategies and Objectives

Objectives for Which Indicator Data is Reported
As described earlier, the Superfund program has taken a number of actions to address emergencies
and reduce acute threats, such as providing site security, providing alternate water supplies, relocation
of people near the site, and removal, treatment, and containment of wastes. These actions are consis-
tent with the broad objective to improve identification and remediation of hazardous and petroleum
waste sites. In particular, they are consistent with the strategy to identify and address the worst sites first
and continue removal assessments to identify emergencies.
Data is also reported to demonstrate progress toward the objective of ensuring the long-term effectiveness of
response actons. Within this objective, the strategy is to encourage the use of permanent remedies to reduce
the volume, toxfcity, or mobility of contaminants.  Data shown earlier inoScate that the use of treatment tech-
nologies has been increasing at sites where remedies are required to control the source of contamination.
Finally, data are reported to show progress in achieving long-term clean-up goals at NPL sites. While
this indicates progress toward the the broad objective to improve identification and remediation of
sites, the strategy does not contain a more specific or quantitative objective related to this indicator.
such as increasing within a certain timeframe the number of sites achieving long-term goals.

Objectives for Which Indicator Data is Not Yet Reported

OSWER's strategy includes a plan to establish a data collection and analysis system to evaluate the ef-
fectiveness and reliability of remedies being used. This will require more direct environmental indicators
than those currently reported by Superfund.
                                                                                Ill -8

-------
MUNICIPAL WASTE
                                 Municipal Waste


  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                       Human Health      Ecological      Welfare
      Unfinished Business Report          Med-Low, cancer    High-Med      Med-Low
                                       Med-Low, non-cancer

      SAB Reducing Risk Report           NR               NR            NR

      Regional Comparative Risk           Low              Low

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                       1988              1990
      Non-Hazardous waste               Med-Low          Low
      Litter & Trash                      -                Medium

   AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

      • Environmental Labeling        • Great Lakes             • Mexican Border
      • Multimedia Enforcement        • Clean Water Act          • Indian Programs
      • Federal Facilities
Problem  Definition

Municipal waste sites include open and closed municipal landfills, municipal sludge and refuse incinera-
tors, and municipal surface impoundments.  These sources can contaminate ground and surface water
and pollute the air with particulates, toxics, BOD, microbes, and nutrients. Contamination may occur
through routine releases, soil migration or runoff. Most sites, except for operating municipal landfills and
surface impoundments, are regulated under Subtitle D. This category excludes active and inactive haz-
ardous waste sites.


                  Waste

Goals/Objectives

OSWER has developed a strategy to address municipal solid waste which focuses on 1) waste minimiza-
tion, and 2) environmentally sound management of waste. Under waste minimization there are three
objectives: 1) significantly increase source reduction activities by municipalities to prevent the genera-
tion of municipal solid wastes; 2) increase significantly the number of markets for secondary materials for
solid wastes; and 3) foster the development of state programs for municipal solid waste source reduction
and recycling. Under environmentally sound management there is one objective: ensure the proper
management of municipal solid wastes in all states.

Strategies

Waste Minimization: The strategy includes a strong public outreach and technical assistance program
to reduce generation of wastes and help all  sectors understand the benefits of source reduction. A sec-
ond part of the strategy is to create economically viable markets for secondary materials such that recy-
cling does not raise false expectations. A third part of this strategy is to provide technical assistance to

III -9

-------
                                                                            MUNICIPAL WASTE

states including targeting opportunities, developing technical and administrative guidance on how states
should develop and manage a waste minimization program, developing staff expertise in designing and
developing clearinghouses, and developing guidance and outreach materials.
Environmentally Sound Waste Management: This strategy is to build full state capability for proper man-
agement of municipal solid wastes by 1995.  To do this would mean assuring states have primary re-
sponsibility for implementing this program. Also, it means developing and maintaining an expert techni-
cal workforce in regions and headquarters to provide technical assistance to states, working with states
to enhance their technical capabilities to promote timely and high quality applications for permit program
approval processing and approving adequate programs in a timely manner, and using federal enforce-
ment where state programs are inadequate.

Additional Comments

The program to address municipal solid waste is in its infancy. Much of the effort to reduce municipal
solid wastes may need to focus on education to change the behavior of individuals at the household
level.  Since municipalities are strapped for money to carry out new programs or costly technical solu-
tions, such waste minimization outreach efforts may have a big impact.


Environmental Indicator Results

The overall goal of the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) program is to foster an Integrated Waste Manage-
ment (IWM) approach to safely and effectively handle the MSW stream. An IWM system will contain
some or all of the following components: source reduction (including reuse of products), recycling of
materials (including composting), waste combustion (with energy recovery) and landfilling. EPA is en-
couraging source reduction and recycling as preferred waste management approaches. In addition,
EPA has issued the Subtitle D Revised Criteria (October  1991) which set standards for MSW landfills,
and includes a corrective action component.

EPA's role is to promote IWM, set minimum national criteria for the safe management of MSW, review
and approve state MSW permit programs, and provide education and technical assistance to states,
Indian Tribes and others. States have primary responsibility for overseeing the management of MSW
and collecting and managing MSW data. Although EPA has conducted many studies of MSW genera-
tion and management, there is no nationwide reporting system from which to draw annual data. OSW is
beginning work to establish uniform standards for the characterization of MSW and measurement of re-
cycling at the state and local levels. It is  hoped that during the next several years, states and communi-
ties will voluntarily adopt these standards to report accurate and comparable data.
For the RCRA Environmental Indicators project, the overall goal has been broken into three goals (similar
to those for hazardous waste):

  •  Waste reduction: Reduce the quantity and toxicity  of wastes generated and disposed, through
     source reduction and recycling;

  •  Safe management Ensure that wastes are managed in an environmentally safe manner; and

  •  Corrective action: Clean up environmental contamination from past and future waste management
     activities.

OSW is developing short-term, medium-term, and long-term indicators for the MSW program (reflecting
the availability of data for reporting). This report presents short-term indicators for waste reduction and
recycling and safe management.  EPA's  recently-promulgated corrective action requirements for MSW
landfills will not become effective until October 9,1993.  EPA will not report environmental indicators for
corrective action until after 1994.
                                                                                    111-10

-------
MUNICIPAL WASTE
Environmental  Indicator Results:  Municipal
Waste Source Reduction and Recycling

The first goal of the MSW program is to reduce the amount of waste generated and disposed, thus re-
ducing waste management costs and potential threats to human health and the environment during manage-
ment and disposal. This report contains two relevant short-term indicators: (1) trends in MSW generation rate
and (2) trends in the amount of MSW recycled.
Per Capita Generation of MSW Continues to Increase
Figures 6 and 7 show trends in the quantity of MSW generated from 1960 to 1988. The nation currently
generates over 180 million tons of waste, up from 90 million tons in 1960. Increases in waste generation
rates are attributable to population growth and increases in per-capita waste generation.  By encourag-
ing a variety of source reduction methods (e.g., unit-based pricing, use of less packaging), EPA hopes
to reduce the amount of waste that people generate over time.
Waste Recovery (Recycling, Composting) is Increasing
EPA studies show that the amount of waste recovered (primarily through recycling but also through yard
waste composting to a limited extent) has increased steadily over time (see Figure 8). Less than 7% of
our nation's waste was recovered in 1960, compared to over 13% today. This success is due largely to
the states' strong efforts implementing recycling programs. EPA's current recycling goal is 25%. The
National Solid Waste Management Association reports that 33 states have comprehensive recycling laws.
Figure 6.  Trends in Municipal Solid Waste Generation
            Total Solid Waste Generation
    s
                                                                      tlltv:
                                     Moderate; Involves
                                     assumptions,
                                     accuracy and
                                     precision not
                                     quantified.

                                     Relevance to
                                     program! Moderate;
                                     EPA does not
                                     directly regulate
                                     waste generation.
          1960
1970
1980
1988
 Source: EPA, Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States, 1960-2010,1990 Update, June 1990.

 Ill- 11

-------
                                                                           MUNICIPAL WASTE
 Figure 7.   Trends in Municipal Solid Waste Generation
              Per Capita Solid Waste Generation
T3
a

O.
I
                                                                  Moderate; Involves
                                                                  assumptions,
                                                                  accuracy and
                                                                  precision not
                                                                  quantified.
                                                                  Relevance to
                                                                  program; Moderate;
                                                                  EPA does not
                                                                  directly regulate
                                                                  waste generation.
          1960             1970             1980             1988

Source: EPA. Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States. 1960 to 2070. (June1990 Update).
Figure 8.   Trends in the Recovery of Municipal Solid Waste for
             Recycling
                 1960
                           1970
                                          1980
                                                    1988
                                    Year
                                                                  Pata Quality?
                                                                  Moderate; involves
                                                                  assumptions,
                                                                  accuracy and
                                                                  precision not
                                                                  quantified.
                                                                  Relevance to
                                                                  program! Moderate;
                                                                  EPA does not
                                                                  directly regulate
                                                                  waste generation.
Source: EPA. Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States. 1960 to 2010. (June 1990 Update).
                                                                                111-12

-------
MUNICIPAL WASTE
Environmental Indicator Results:  Municipal  Solid
Waste Safe Management

A second goal of the MSW program is to ensure that wastes are managed in a manner protective of hu-
man health and the environment. The short-term indicator for safe management is the amounts of waste
managed by various methods. However, this is only half of the safe management story.  In the future,
OSW will study the feasibility of reporting additional indicators regarding facility compliance and the
number of facilities with no releases of concern to ground water, surface water, air and soil.
Incineration and Recycling are Increasing Over Time
Figure 9 shows national trends in MSW management methods. While total generation rates of municipal
solid waste have been increasing over time, trends in percent managed by different methods have var-
ied over the past 30 years. An estimated 30% of MSW was combusted in 1960, mostly in incinerators
with no air pollution controls and no energy recovery. As old incinerators were closed, combustion
dropped steadily over the next 20 years, to reach a low of 10% of generation in 1980. Over the past
decade, however, combustion of MSW has been increasing again; almost all of the newer facilities have
energy recovery and meet air pollution standards.
The amount and percentage of MSW that was landfilled increased in the 1960s and 1970s, reflecting the
declining use of incineration and  the low rates for recycling and composting. By 1980, the percentage
of MSW landfilled had increased to 81% of generation, from 72% in 1970 and 62% in 1960. In the
1980s, increased recycling and combustion caused the percentage remaining to be landfilled to de-
cline. By 1988, only 72% of MSW was landfilled.

Environmental Indicator Results:  Corrective Action

The third aspect of the MSW program is to prevent future threat to human health and the environment
from facilities which have past releases  or  may develop releases in the future.  OSW is not presenting
any corrective action indicators for MSW at this time. While Subtitle D criteria including corrective action
standards were passed in September 1991, corrective action criteria will not be in effect until 1993.

Figure 9.   Municipal Solid Waste Management Trends, 1960 - 1988
         200
         150
     '
     0
     B
     o

Recovery for
recycling


Combustion
                                                     Landfill
          Data quality: Mod-
          erate; involves as-
          sumptions, accu-
          racy and precision
          not quantified.

          Relevance to pro-
          gram; Moderate;
          EPA does not di-
          rectly regulate
          waste generation.
           1960          1970          1980          1988

Source: EPA, Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States, 1960 to 2010, (June 1990 Update).

Ill- 13

-------
                                                                     MUNICIPAL WASTE

Conclusions  Comparison of Indicator Results to
Strategies and Objectives

Waste Reduction

The types of indicator data presented here, concerning the amounts of municipal waste generated and
recycled, will be suitable measures of the success of OSW's strategy to increase source reduction and
recycling. Even though many years of data are presented, because much of the federal program for
municipal solid waste is in the early stages of implementation, it is too soon to fully evaluate the effects of
EPA's current strategies on these indicators.

Safe Management

The indicator data concerning municipal waste managed by various methods will provide complete
measures of the success of OSW's safe management strategy only when OSW completes their plan
(noted above) to add data collection on the numbers of facilities with no releases of concern. Since the
revised Subtitle D rules have only been recently promulgated, the collection of this data will not be fea-
sible for a few years, at a minimum. Current data do not distinguish waste combusted or landfilled at
facilities operated in the most environmentally sound ways from waste treated at facilities that do not use
the most effective procedures to prevent emissions to air or water.
                                                                           111-14

-------
HAZARDOUS WASTE
                                Hazardous Waste



  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                      Human Health      Ecological      Welfare
      Unfinished Business Report          Med-High, cancer   Low           Medium
                                      Low, non-cancer

      SAB Reducing Risk Report           NR               NR            NR

      Regional Comparative Risk           Medium-Low       Medium

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                      1988             1990
                                      High             High

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

      • 33/50 Project               • Pollution Prevention Leg.      • Environmental Labeling
      • Geographic Initiatives (all)     • Multimedia Enforcement      • RCRA
      • Indian Programs            • Federal Facilities            • Ground Water
      • Contaminated Media         • Economic Incentives
Problem Definition

This category generally includes the risks posed by active and inactive hazardous waste sites regulated
under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). These sites include RCRA operating and
closed landfills and surface impoundments, hazardous waste storage containers and tanks, hazardous
waste burned in boilers and furnaces, hazardous waste incinerators, and associated solid waste man-
agement units. Seepage and routine releases from these sources contaminate soil, surface water,
ground water, and pollute the air. Contamination resulting from waste transportation and current illegal
disposal are also included. Radiation from hazardous "mixed waste" from RCRA facilities  is included in
this problem area.


Hazardous Waste

Goals/Objectives

OSWER has developed a multi-year strategy to address hazardous wastes under all four major goals of:
1) waste minimization; 2) environmentally sound waste management; 3) preventing harmful releases;
and 4) preparing for and responding to hazardous releases.

Strategies

Waste Minimization: The strategy includes a strong industry and public outreach and technical assis-
tance program to reduce the generation of wastes and help all sectors understand the benefits of source
reduction, creating economically viable markets for secondary materials such that recycling does not
raise false expectations, and encourage pollution  prevention through permitting and enforcement.


111-15

-------
                                                                           HAZARDOUS WASTE

Environmentally Sound Waste Management: The strategy is to implement the recent RCRA Implementa-
tion Study recommendations for a "more rational RCRA Subtitle C (hazardous waste) program," discour-
age non-compliance through a strong enforcement program, and implement a strong outreach and tech-
nical assistance program to ensure the continued availability of safe disposal and treatment capacity.
combined with waste minimization programs.
Preventing Harmful Releases: The strategy focuses on high risk-volume locations, identifying and using
financial incentives for industries to prevent releases, and identify media-specific pollution problems and
develop a strategy for addressing these situations.
Prepare For and Respond to Hazardous Releases: The strategy includes better integration of RCRA and
Superfund cleanup programs to ensure we use our resources effectively, reducing costs at sites so that
more sites can be addressed each year, reducing the time from site identification of contamination to
effective response, and focus on the highest risk sites first, and authorize more state corrective action
programs under HSWA, use Memoranda of Agreements for a working framework for increased state
involvement, and assisting states in building capacity through grants, training, staff exchanges, and
technical assistance.

Additional Comments
There are few measures of qualitative progress for any of the four strategies, such as the reduced time to
reissue a permit, or reduced time or cost of site cleanups. The development of success measures for
RCRA has just become a program area of focus with the environmental indicators initiative.


Environmental  Indicator Results

The overall goal of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C program is to assure
comprehensive hazardous waste management that is protective of human health and the environment.
For strategic planning, EPA's Office of Solid Waste (OSW) has divided the overall goal into three por-
tions:
  • Waste minimization:  Reduce the quantity and toxicity of wastes generated and disposed;

  • Safe management Ensure that wastes that are generated are managed in an environmentally safe
    manner; and
  • Corrective action:  Clean up environmental contamination from past and future waste management
    activities.
OSW is developing short-term, medium-term, and long-term environmental indicators for each of these
program goals (with time frames reflecting the availability of data for reporting). This report presents
initial work to explore short-term indicators.
RCRA hazardous waste indicators will be reported using two data systems - the Resource Conservation
and Recovery Information System (RCRIS) and the Biennial Reporting System (BRS). The BRS database
is updated every two years, while RCRIS is updated on a continuous basis. Data presented here were
derived from the  1989 BRS database and the current RCRIS database (current as of January 1992). The data
presented here for BRS should be considered IncompJM* and are not nationally representative. The
RCRIS database is complete and includes data for 54 states and territories. The 1989 BRS database
covers 43 of 54 states and territories (Rgure 10).  Data Submissions for the remaining states and territo-
ries will be complete in the spring of 1992.
                                                                                   111-16

-------
HAZARDOUS WASTE
Figure 10. States and Territories in 1992 Resource Conservation Act
            Information System (RCRIS) and in 1989 Biennial Reporting
            System  (BRS) as of January 1992
                      States both
                      in RCRIS
                      and BRS
                      (American
                      Samoa, Trust
                      Territories)
States in
RCRIS not in
BRS (AL.CT.
FL. IN, KY,
MA, ME, MN.
NJ, Rl, TN, VT,
WA)
Hazardous Waste Minimization

Goal
The goal of this component of the RCRA program is to reduce the quantity and toxicity of wastes gener-
ated and disposed, thereby reducing potential threats to human health and the environment. The short-
term environmental indicator presented is the quantity of hazardous waste generated by industry type
(i.e., Standard Industrial Classification [SIC] code).  OSW intends to develop a baseline of consistently
reported data, which will allow analysis of trends in generation rates over time.
111-17

-------
                                                                         HAZARDOUS WASTE
Current Indicator for Waste Minimization: Baseline Hazardous Waste
Generations by Industry Group
A majority of most hazardous waste is generated by a few industry groups.
Figure 11 shows RCRA hazardous wastes generated  from various industries. This includes only waste
defined in the 1989 Biennial Reporting System (43 of 54 states and territories) as primary waste: hazard-
ous wastes generated on-site from production processes, service activities, or management of non-hazardous
waste. The analysis does not include wastes resulting from "secondary" generation, meaning hazardous
waste residuals resulting from treatment or recycling of previously existing hazardous waste. Example of "sec-
ondary" generation waste are landfill leachate or a solid resulting from a stabilization process.
Figure 11 shows that the dominant industry in waste generation is "Manufacturing of Chemicals and Al-
lied Products" (SIC 28), representing 85% of total primary waste generated, more than seventeen times
the quantity of waste by the next largest known generator, "Manufacturing of Fabricated Metal Products"
(SIC 34) accounts for 5% of total generation, "Electric and Other Electric Equipment" (SIC 36) accounts
for 3%, and "Petroleum and Coal Products" (SIC 29) accounts for 2%. The remaining SIC codes are 5%
of total primary hazardous wastes generated, and have been collapsed into the category "All Others."

Indicators Planned for Future Waste Minimization Goal
OSW is studying the feasibility of reporting additional  indicators, such as the amount of waste minimiza-
tion reported, as well as changes in types, composition, and toxicity of wastes generated over time.
OSW will also consider options for normalizing data to account for economic or other factors having an
impact on waste generation, and to identify reduction in wastes resulting from minimization programs
versus outside factors.


Safe Management  of Hazardous Waste

Goal
The goal of the "safe management' component of the RCRA program is to ensure that hazardous wastes
are managed in a manner that protects human health and the environment.
This report presents one short-term indicator for this component of the RCRA program: the distribution
of waste across various waste management practices. By tracking waste  management practices over
time OSW will show trends in shifts of waste management (i.e., reduced land disposal, increased treat-
ment prior to disposal). The objective will be for changes in management  practices to result in reduced
potential for significant releases.
Safe Management Indicator (1):  Amounts of Waste Managed Through Each
Management Practice
Most hazardous waste is managed through treatment.
Fiqure 12 shows the management methods used for the 145 million tons of hazardous waste managed
in 43 of 54 states and territories in 1989. Unlike the waste minimization chart, this chart includes primary
and secondary waste. The 1989 Biennial Reporting System shows that approximately 81% of all hazard-
ous wastes were treated,  using such processes as biological treatment, chemical precipitation and in-
cineration. Of waste undergoing treatment. 10% was treated through incineration, mostly liquid waste
reused as fuel.  Materials  recovery and reuse (predominantly metals recovery) accounted for 1 ^of the
waste managed Eighteen percent of the waste was ultimately land disposed.  Of the waste land dis-
posed, 93% was placed in underground injection wefls and Ihe remainder was disposed in surface im-
poundments, land application units, and landfills.


                                                                                111-18

-------
HAZARDOUS WASTE

Figure  11. Total Hazardous Waste Generation at RCRA Regulated
             Facilities in 1989 by Industry Type


                               43 of 54 States and Territories
                                     (13O million tons)
                                   Primary* Waste Only
                            SIC 34 - Manufacturing
                             of Fabricated Metal
                                  Products
                                    5%
                              (7.1 million tons)
      SIC 29 - Petroleum and
         Coal Products
              2%
        (2.5 million tons)
   All Others
     5%
(6.2 million tons)
  SIC 36 - Electronic and
      Other Electric
        Equipment
           3%
     (3.5 million tons)
                                                                   SIC 28 - Manufacturing of
                                                                         Chemicals &
                                                                       Allied Products
                                                                            85%
                                                                      (110.7 million tons)
          Data quality; Useful, relative information, but data not complete. All numbers
          •re partial national numbers, as only 43 of 54 states and territories are
          currently in the BRS database. Data are considered draft. Nationally
          complete data will be available later in 1992.

          Relevance to program;  Moderate; EPA does not directly regulate waste
          generation.
          "Primary waste is hazardous waste generated from on-site production processes,
           service activity, or the management of non-hazardous waste.
 Source: 1989 Biennial Reporting System (BRS)

 III - 19

-------
  Figure 12. Most Hazardous Waste is Managed Through Treatment.  Amounts of Hazardous Waste
               Managed by Each Treatment Practice by 43 of the 54 States and Territories in 1989
                      Incineration
                         8%   —
                   (12.1 million tons)
 Recovery / Recycling
        1%
  (1.9 million tons)
    Waste Water
      67%
 (96.4 million tons)
 Land Disposal
     18%
(26.0 million tons)
   Landfills
     2%
(0.6 million tons)
                                        Land Application Units
                                         ,—   2%
                                          (0.6 million tons)
                           Surface Impoundments
                           	   3%
                                                    (0.7 million tons)
                                                                                                       Underground Injection
                                                                                                             Wells
                                                                                                             93%
                                                                                                        (24.2 million tons)
                                                   Other Treatment
                                                        6%
                                                   (8.2 million tons)
                                                                          Land Disposal (26.0 million tons)
Source: 1989 Biennial Reporting System (BRS)
                                                     Data quality; Useful, relative Information, but data not complete. All
                                                     numbers are partial national numbers, as only 43 of 54 states and territories
                                                     are currently In the BRS database. Data are considered draft. Nationally
                                                     complete data will be available later in 1992.

                                                     Relevance to program; Not a direct environmental measure, but relevant to
                                                     safe management goal.


-------
HAZARDOUS WASTE

OSW will track this indicator over time to observe how waste management practices change in response
to regulations, economic conditions, waste minimization efforts, and other factors.  In the future, increased
treatment of wastes prior to land disposal, and increased use of recovery and recycling, are expected.

Indicators Planned for Future for the Safe Management Goal
OSW, in conjuction with OWPE, is considering using facility compliance status as a short-term surrogate
measure for safe management.  In the future, OSW will study the feasibility of reporting more direct indi-
cators of environmental impact, such as the number of operating facilities with releases (i.e., based on
ground water monitoring data) or other environmentally significant problems. In addition, OSW will track
the number of facilities moving from interim status to permitted status, and will attempt to relate environ-
mental indicators to the effects of changes in enforcement and more stringent regulations.


Corrective Action

Goal
The goal of the corrective action (CA) program is to prevent harm to human health and the environment
from releases that have occurred at RCRA facilities by maximizing the number of cleanup actions at these
facilities. EPA identifies environmentally threatening sites, prioritizes the sites according to risk, and ad-
dresses the most threatening sites and areas of sites first.  While all sites with releases of concern will eventu-
ally be addressed, the process can often take a long time, depending on the complexity of the action, the
immediacy of the threat, the facility's priority for CA, and the financial viability of the owner/operator.
This report presents one short-term CA indicator:  status of facilities in the CA program. This is more of
an activity measure than an environmental indicator. Work is underway to develop measures of actual
releases and cleanup accomplishments. Three steps in the CA process are presented here. The first
step, the RCRA Facility Assessment (RFA), is a general assessment of the site and important step in
identifying potential problems. The second step, the RCRA Facility Investigation (RFI), is a more detailed
study of sites which may be of concern. The third  step, Corrective Measures Study (CMS), Corrective
Measures Implementation (CMI) and stabilization measures (which are near term risk reduction actions)
- are activities that address the environmental release. (To control  releases and reduce risk in the early
phases of the CA process, EPA has implemented  a Stabilization Strategy so that whatever action neces-
sary is taken  to  reduce risk and control the further spread of contamination.)
Status  of Facilities in Corrective Action Program
Facilities with releases are being systematically addressed to protect human health and the environment.
Figure 13 presents activities being conducted at hazardous waste management facilities for the 54
states and territories whose data were presently retrievable from RCRIS.  The data show that EPA, along
with states and territories, has systematically initiated the CA program and is working to control contami-
nant releases.  EPA has completed RFAs (i.e., has assessed problems) at 2,264 of 4,541 facilities.  OSW
estimates that 15 to 20% of these facilities have no need for further action at this time. Conversely,  an
estimated 80 to 85% of facilities will need further actions.  EPA has already imposed RFIs on 37% of fa-
cilities with RFAs. In addition, 8% of facilities with RFAs are controlling contaminant releases.
These data will  constitute a baseline that OSW will use to track future trends.  In the future, EPA expects
to see increases in the number of risk reduction actions taken to control contaminant releases.
 Indicator Planned for Corrective Action Goal
While data on the number of facilities that have either on-site or off-site releases are not currently retriev-
able from RCRIS, OSW is studying the feasibility of having this information reported. This past summer,
through a separate data collection effort, information regarding on-site and off-site releases was com-
piled. These data indicate that 370 facilities have known on-site releases to ground water; 120 facilities
have off-site releases to ground water.

Ill - 21

-------
   Figure 13.  Status of Hazardous Waste Management Facilities in the Corrective Action Program
                (54 States and Territories)
                 Assessments
                                           Investigations
Controlling Contaminant Releases
              2,264 Facilities Have
                 Been Assessed
                                           37% of Facilities
                                       Assessed Have Begun or
                                       Completed Investigation
                                            (835 Facilities)
   8% of Facilities Assessed Are
 Controlling Contaminant Releases
          (184 Facilities)
                   Data quality! Useful, relative information, but data quality and accuracy are unknown. Data are from
                   the Resource Conservation and Recovery Information System (RCRIS) and are nationally complete.

                   Relevance to program; Not a direct environmental Indicator, but relevant to the corrective action goal.

IS
Source: Resource Conservation and Recovery Informatbn System (RCRIS), 1992.


-------
HAZARDOUS WASTE

Conclusion:   Comparison  of Indicator Results to
Strategies  and Objectives

Waste Minimization
Because these data are a baseline, evaluation of progress towards program goals will not be possible
until future years. The waste minimization indicator is directly relevant for evaluating the success of the
strategy of reducing the generation of wastes. It will only indirectly capture information on the success of
the strategy of creating economically viable markets for secondary materials.

One area in the strategy not addressed by current or planned OSW environmental indicators (based on
the OSW environmental indicator implementation plan) is to develop environmental indicators for mea-
suring pollution prevention resulting from coordinated permitting and enforcement authorities.

Safe Management
Because these data are a baseline, evaluation of progress towards program goals will not be possible
until future years. Over time, OSW will be able to use this indicator to track trends in waste management
practices which will hopefully demonstrate success of the strategy to increase use of management prac-
tices with reduced potential for significant releases. In FY92, data for hazardous waste managed by
method will  be broken out by type of waste, which will make the data even more useful for evaluating
whether the most effective specific practices are being used.
The plan to  review ground water monitoring data for land disposal facilities, and develop a proposal for
incorporating some subset of these data into the indicator reporting process, would move the waste
management program towards having a more "direct" type of environmental indicator, which would be in
keeping with the ultimate safe management goal of managing wastes in a manner which protects human
health and the environment.

Corrective Action
Because these data are a baseline, they cannot be used until future years to determine the rate at which
the program is moving towards its goal of eventually addressing all sites with releases of concern. While
these data do demonstrate the frequency with which cleanups are occurring, and give a sense of other
aspects of program activity, it is not yet possible to quantify the direct environmental  significance of the
actions tracked.
The RCRA corrective action program is only now beginning to be implemented in the regions and the
states. The Resource Conservation and Recovery Information System (RCRIS) tracks, on a national
level, the administrative actions completed for facilities in corrective action. The challenge is measuring
the actual environmental impacts these actions have on sites needing corrective action. As with the Su-
perfund program, a great deal of contaminant data is available at the facility level. In the future OSW
hopes to track on-site or off-site contamination of ground water at land disposal facilities, and number of
sites prioritized for corrective action. Such data would also be useful to document the extent to which
the strategy of addressing  highest risk sites first was being implemented. As yet there is no nationally
organized, consistent database on actual environmental impacts as sites.
 Iff - 23

-------
                                                                UNDERGROUND STORAGE TANKS
                          Underground Storage Tanks



   RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                       Human Health      Ecological      Welfare
        Unfinished Business Report          Low, cancer       Low           Low
                                       Low, non-cancer

        SAB Reducing Risk Report           NR              Low           Low

        Regional Comparative Risk           NR              NR

   PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                       1988             1990
                                       Med-High         Med-High

   AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

        • Ground Water
        • RCRA
 Problem Definition

 This problem includes routine or chronic releases of petroleum products or other chemicals from under-
 ground storage tanks. Stored products include motor fuels, solvents and lubricants that can contami-
 nate soil and ground water with such toxics as benzene, toluene, and xylene. This category excludes
 hazardous waste tanks.


 Underground  Storage  Tanks

 Strategies
 In fulfilling its mission of cleaning up and protecting ground water from leaking underground storage
 tanks (USTs), EPA faces some enormous challenges. An estimated 1.8 million regulated USTs are scat-
 tered across the country at about 750,000 facilities. Fifteen percent, or almost 300,000, of these tanks
 may currently be leaking or may have already leaked various petroleum and other products into the sur-
 rounding soil and ground water.
 The Office of Underground Storage Tanks (OUST) recognized that it would need the cooperation and
 support of state and local governments nationwide to implement a program of such magnitude. Under
 the OUST approach EPA provides funding, a flexible base of regulations, and technical support to state
 and local governments that implement the program. Fifty states, six territories and hundreds of local
governments have responded and have developed programs to find and clean up existing leaks and
prevent new releases.
OUST is working with numerous state and local tank programs to help improve their effectiveness and
efficiency. The objective is to enable state and local programs to meet environmental challenges in spite
of shrinking budgets.

                                                                              Ill -24

-------
 UNDERGROUND STORAGE TANKS

 Specifically, OUST is working with many states and local programs to "streamline" site assessment and
 cleanup processes by helping them use total quality management techniques. Early results are encour-
 aging, and OUST is expanding its streamlining project to additional states. OUST is encouraging the
 use of innovative technologies that can improve cleanup quality and reduce cost. In addition, OUST is
 concentrating on improving compliance with leak detection requirements. By cleaning up old releases
 and quickly identifying and addressing new ones OUST strives to achieve the greatest possible reduc-
 tion of human health and environmental risks during the next few years.

 Environmental Indicator Results

 Tank Closures and Protection Against Corrosion

 EPA's underground storage tank regulations as well as most of the regulations promulgated by state and
 local governments are designed to prevent the major cause of releases - corrosion of tanks and piping.
 The bare steel components of most existing tank systems must be replaced or upgraded so that they
 cannot rust. Because this is very costly for many small businesses owning tanks, EPA's regulations al-
 lowed them ten years to replace or upgrade their systems and several options for protecting their tanks.
 The regulated community is making significant progress in removing or safely closing their old bare steel
 tanks (Figure 14). Over 300,000 old tanks, or about one sixth of the universe have now been closed or
 removed.  In addition, over 30% of all tanks in use are protected from corrosion (Figure15). By 1998,
 every tank must meet all of EPA's technical standards which guard against leaks. The regulations re-
 quire leak detection, overfill protection and other prevention measures on a much faster schedule.

 Corrective Action

 State and local tank programs are rapidly finding new releases (Rgure 16). Since many tank owners
 only recently began required testing for leaks, the growing backlog of sites requiring cleanups is no sur-
 prise. The total number of releases found by the end of the century may reach 300,000, making the UST
 cleanup program both challenging and costly. Catching up with this backlog is a top priority.
Figure 14. Underground Storage Tank Closures
                 350
   Cumulative
     Total
  (Thousands)
                    4th
                  Quarter
                    1989
  4th
Quarter
 1990
                          Data nualtty not rated;
                          This Is a good activity
                          measure from which to
                          Infer environmental
                          results, but doosnt
                          involve environmental
                          measurements.
  4th
Quarter
 1991
Source: Office of Underground Storage Tanks.

Ill -25

-------
                                                              UNDERGROUND STORAGE TANKS
Figure 15.  Underground Storage Tanks Protected Against Corrosion
             Spring 1991
               Tanks protected
              against corrosion
               (461,428 tanks)
   Data quality not rated;
   This Is a good activity
   measure from which to
   Infer environmental
   results, but doesnt
   Involve environmental
   measurements.
                                      Tanks
                                  unprotected or
                                    unknown
                                 (1,029,856 tanks)
Source: Office of Underground Storage Tanks.
Figure 16. Corrective Action Activity Through September 30,1991
          120
            1st
           Quarter
            1989

   Confirmed Releases
  4th
Quarter
 1989
  4th
Quarter
 1990
                                                                Data quality net rated;
                                                                Information not avail-
                                                                able when report went
                                                                to press.
  Cleanups Initiated
      4th
    Quarter
     1991

Cleanups Completed
Source: Office of Underground Storage Tanks.
                                                                               111-26

-------
UNDERGROUND STORAGE TANKS

Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to
Strategies and Objectives

As illustrated in Figure 16, a graph of LIST corrective action activity, the gap between the number of re-
leases detected and cleanups completed is increasing. According to the OUST strategy, OUST will ad-
dress this growing backlog by improving the efficiency of state and local cleanup programs and by en-
couraging the use of innovative technologies.  It will be a number of years before we can adequately
assess the effectiveness of this approach.
OUSTs strategy also includes improving compliance with leak detection requirements. According to the
data shown here, the regulated community is making progress replacing old tanks with newer protected
tanks.  In addition, since the program began, the proportion of tanks protected against corrosion has
increased, although consistent data was not available for this report. OUST is evaluating additional indi-
cators to assess progress in preventing future leaks.
111-27

-------
IV. Office  of Pesticides and Toxic Substances
  RELATIVE RISK RANKING

      Unfinished Business Report
      in Foods

      Other Exposures
      (Applicator)

      SAB Reducing Risk Report

      Regional Comparative Risk

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)

      In Foods
      Farm Worker
                                    Pesticides
      Human Health
      High, cancer
      High, non-cancer

      Med-High, cancer
      High, non-cancer

      High (applicator)

      High
      1988
      Med-High
      Med-High
  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION
Ecological
High


High
Welfare
Minor
Medium
Medium         Medium

High-Med-High
1990
Med-Low
Medium
        Agricultural Sector
        Caribbean
        Gulf of Mexico
        Multimedia Enforcement
        Food Safety &FIFRA-88
• Pollution Prevention Leg.
• Chesapeake Bay
• Estuary Program
• Indian Programs
• Economic Incentives Analysis
    • Environmental Labeling
    • Great Lakes
    • Wetlands
    • Ground Water
Problem Definition

This problem area addresses risks arising from the application, runoff, and residues of pesticides to hu-
mans and the environment. It includes risks to people applying agricultural pesticides, including farm
workers who mix, load, and apply them. Also included are risks to the public and non-target plants and
wildlife as a result of short range drift, overspray, and misuse. Some of the more dangerous substances
include ethyl parathion, paraquat, dinoseb, EPN, aldicarb, and diazinon. Disposal of mixed pesticide
wastes has resulted in the generation of highly toxic, largely unknown by-products that have entered the
air and caused serious health problems. Suburban spraying of property, often done with high pressure
systems, can result in contamination of neighboring property, residents, pets, and livestock. Aside from
direct exposure, additional pesticide risks stem from exposure through ingestion of residues on foods
eaten by humans and wildlife.  Bioaccumulation and food chain effects are also included in this category.
                                                                                 IV- 1

-------
PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER

Background  Data Relevant to Multiple Strategies:
Pesticides in Ground Water Database

Introduction

The Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) is responsible for protecting human and environmental health
from unreasonable risks due to pesticide exposure. Monitoring during the last decade has shown that
the nation's ground water is vulnerable to contamination by pesticides particularly in areas with vulner-
able aquifers and high pesticide use.  Therefore, OPP has taken a preventive approach to the protection
of this valuable resource.  Regulatory activities have evolved to include, as a condition of registration or
reregistration, a more rigorous evaluation of a pesticide's potential to reach ground water.

Background
The Pesticides in Ground Water Database (PGWDB) was created to provide a more complete picture of
ground water monitoring for pesticides in the U.S. Ground water data in the PGWDB have been as-
sembled from numerous sources including state and federal agencies, chemical companies, consulting
firms, and private institutions that are investigating the potential for ground water contamination by pesti-
cides. The Office of Pesticide Programs began collecting ground water studies for the Pesticides in
Ground Water Database in the early 1980s. In 1988, an effort was made to review and catalog this data.
Summary results of this effort were computerized and then published in the Pesticides in Ground Water
Database:  1988 Interim Report.
OPP uses the information provided in the PGWDB to indicate the effectiveness of regulatory policies and
to redirect the focus of regulatory activities when necessary. The data collected has been used to sup-
port label advisories, requirements for increased monitoring, reregistration, and special review. Combin-
ing the information  in the PGWDB with usage data will assist OPP in refining criteria used to identify pes-
ticides, at an early stage, that tend to leach to ground water. Additional uses for the data in the PGWDB
include identification of areas in need of further study, identification of the intensity of monitoring for par-
ticular pesticides, and graphic display of ground water monitoring and/or contamination by pesticides.
On a state or local level, the PGWDB can be used as a reference so that states will have access to data
from neighboring states. Evidence that pesticide residues occur in ground water can be used to target
a state's resources for future monitoring and to reassess pesticide management practices to prevent
future degradation  of ground water quality. The information presented in this database will also be use-
ful to state and regional agencies when implementing the two percent pollution-prevention measures; the
Restricted Use Rule and the State Management Plans for the Pesticides and Ground Water Strategy.

Results Summary
The following data summary is taken from the DRAFT version of the 1991 Pesticides in Ground Water
DataBase Report.  Data in all of the tables and figures are ESTIMATES because several states with large
datasets have recently sent OPP updated information.  This information will be included in the final ver-
sion of the PGWDB Report that will be completed in early 1992.  These summary data reflect sampling
from 1979 to 1990.
Table 1 is a summary of well sampling information for the nation. Rgure 1  is a summary of well sampling
data, by state, for the 20 states with the most frequent pesticide detections. Figure 2a and 2b are well
sampling data for the 20 most frequently detected pesticides nation-wide. These graphs are presented
for summary purposes only.  Close examination of data used to generate them reveals that certain large
datasets have biased the ranking of states and pesticides. An example of this is the Suffolk County, NY
data which is printed near the applicable bars on the graphs. The disproportionate sample intensity in
this small area of New York has altered the ranking of that state and several pesticides. This illustrates
that, although these data can be used to place pesticides and states in general ranking groups, the ab-
solute position of one pesticide or state in relation to another is meaningless because monitoring has not
been performed in  a uniform manner throughout the U.S. or even within each  state.

IV-2

-------
                                                   PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER
Table 1.   Pesticides in Ground Water Database
            Accumulated Sampling from 1979 - 1991
WELLS1
Total Wells Sampled
Total Wells Positive
Total Drinking Water Wells Sampled
Total Drinking Water Wells Positive
SOURCE OF CONTAMINATION1
Normal Reid of Use
Point Source2
Unknown
PESTICIDES3
Total Analyzed
Detected in 1 or more Wells
Detected in 100 or more Wells
Detected in 1000 or more Wells
STATES
States Submitting Data
States with Pesticide Detections
States with Pesticide Detections from NFU4

48,000
13,000
46,000
12,000

11,000
400
1,000

222
98
16
4

42
40
30
1 Values rounded to the nearest 1,000
2 Value rounded to nearest 100
3 Parent or metabolite
4 Known or suspected normal field use
Note: Summary results expressed as rounded estimates.
                                                                   IV -3

-------
PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER

Figure 1a.  Ten States with Highest Number off Positive Wells

                                                 Well Status by State
                                           Listed by Number of Positive Wells
                             NY
                             CA
 Data quality not rated:
 Data base made up of
 individual data sets
 with differing charac-
 teristics.
                                         200
                                                                       800
                                                   400        600
                                                     Well Counts
                                I Wells > Maximum Contaminant Level  | Total Wells Sampled I I Wells Positive
Figure 1b.  Ten States with Next Highest Number of Positive Wells
                                                 Well Status by State
                                           Listed by Number of Positive Wells
                                                                                 1000
                             WA
                                         200
                                                   400        600
                                                     Well Counts
                                                                       800
                                                                                 1000
                                i Wells _> Maximum Contaminant Level  • Total Wells Sampled LJ Wells Positive
IV-4

-------
                                                                     PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER
Figure 2a. Ten Most Frequently Detected Pesticides
                                        Pesticide Detections Listed
                                        By Number Of Positive Wells
ALDICARB
PARROFl IRANI
DBCP
ATRAZINE
EDB
OXAMYL
ALACHLOR
SIMAZINE
METRIBUZIN
BROMACIL


7-5 (Suffolk MY = 7?* 1
888383 lOSe!
! i7fft
^J
33



3 (Sultelk. NY = 31
~H 899 (Suffolk NY . 89
107 I
~l m I

^^^^l
r^^^^i 47£°
J206 I I










(SuKOlk. NY
(Suffolk, NY

.20955)
= 20955)
(Suffolk. NY 20955)
I


                                0    2000  4000   6000  8000   10000  12000  14000

                                                Well Counts

                            I Wells > Maximum Contaminant Level • Total Wells Sampled  D Wells Positive
Figure 2b.  Next Ten Most Frequently Detected Pesticides
                                        Pesticide Detections Listed
                                        By Number Of Positive Wells
              1,2-DICHLOROPROPANE (1,2-D)
                                  0    1000   2000    3000    4000    5000   6000

                                                 Well Counts

                             i Welts > Maximum Contaminant Level I Total Welte Sampled D Wells Positive
                                                                                       IV- 5

-------
PESTICIDES IN GROUND WATER

Data Interpretation
The PGWDB provides a relatively comprehensive overview of the pesticides that are being found in the
nation's ground water and what areas of the country appear to be the most vulnerable to contamination.
Despite their apparent usefulness, these data do have limitations and must be used and interpreted
carefully. Differences in study design, laboratory procedures or equipment and sampling practices can
produce anomalies which make interpretation difficult when data are combined. This is not because the
individual datasets are poor, on the contrary, the vast majority of the studies were carefully planned and
well executed. Rather, it is because the datasets were not necessarily meant to be combined. Some of
the limitations governing the interpretation of these data are discussed below.
   1. The PGWDB is not a complete data set of all ground water monitoring for pesticides in the United
States. While we have attempted to include as many sources as possible, there are other data to which
we do not yet have access or that we have chosen to omit for the present.
   2. Monitoring for pesticides in ground water has not been  performed in a uniform manner throughout
the United States or within each state. Some states have comprehensive monitoring programs for pesti-
cide residues, while others have more limited monitoring programs. In general, more extensive ground
water monitoring programs tend to be found in the states where pesticide use is heavy. This can create
an unrepresentative picture of pesticide detections across the nation.
   3. Differences in ground water monitoring study design can radically affect the results. Many moni-
toring efforts were initiated in response to suspected  problems and, therefore, yield a disproportionately
high number of positive samples.  These results cannot be extrapolated to represent a larger region or
state. Other efforts sampled a small number of wells or sampled under conditions in which contamina-
tion was unlikely. Still others were statistically designed studies, intended to be extrapolated to a spe-
cific population of wells.  Each of these scenarios presents a vastly different view of the condition of sur-
rounding ground water.
   4. Analytical methods and limits of detection have changed over time, and also vary from laboratory
to laboratory.  Therefore, comparisons between results of different studies and across years must be
performed carefully to avoid errors in interpretation.
These limitations apply to the database as it stands now.  In the future some of these concerns will be
lessened. Over the past several years technology has advanced, our understanding of ground water
has improved and the quality and quantity of ground water monitoring data has increased.  Establish-
ment of minimum reporting elements for ground water monitoring is encouraging uniformity and good
laboratory practices are ensuring the accuracy and precision of analytical results.  The result of these
improvements will be a future dataset with fewer problems and greater utility.
iv-e

-------
                                                                             FOOD SAFETY


Food  Safety

Goals/Objectives
OPP's objective is to continue to ensure the safety of the food supply with special attention to pesticide
residues in the human diet.

Strategy
The focus of the food safety strategy is to prevent or reduce risk due to pesticide residues on food and
feed. Actions will be undertaken to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment by developing better surro-
gates of food consumption for subgroups of the population and by placing added emphasis on measur-
ing residues closer to the point of consumption.  Implementation activities of the strategy include statu-
tory mandated re-registration and registration activities, tolerance petition reviews, and emergency ac-
tions. Internationally, EPA is entering into MOUs with foreign governments which will result in collection of
higher quality of data by foreign governments during audits/inspections and increased government inter-
change of environmental data. Additionally, EPA will expand its environmental education program to
increase public awareness and knowledge and monitor trends in bioaccumulation of pesticide residues
in human food chains.

Additional Comments
There is growing public concern over the safety of food which  has been treated with pesticides. Several
congressional hearings have been held on the issue of food safety and the need to respond to the ero-
sion of public confidence in the regulatory process. The result has been mounting pressure on the
Agency to take major steps  to accelerate its review of existing chemicals to determine the degree of
hazard they may pose to public health. While new pesticides may not be marketed until they have been
approved by the Agency, there are several hundred pesticide chemicals, some of which are used on
food, first registered prior to the adoption of contemporary scientific study requirements in 1984, which
have not been comprehensively reviewed to assess their potential to cause unreasonable adverse ef-
fects. Until the required studies have been conducted, reviewed and appropriate regulatory action
taken, these chemicals pose an unknown degree of risk to human health and the environment. OPP
projects that by 1997,85% of these chemicals including the food  use chemicals will have been re-
viewed.  As regulatory action is taken, a strong enforcement program is essential to assure compliance
with statutory mandates.

Environmental Indicator Results:  Pesticide

Usage  Tracking,  1988 and 1989

Introduction
The OPP Environmental Indicators Workgroup tracked pesticide usage on seven crops for the purpose
of assessing changes in risk to humans and the ecosystem from pesticide usage over time.  This section
summarizes the results of pesticide usage tracking for FY 91 conducted by Biological and Economic
Effects Division (BEAD). Once the usage data was obtained by BEAD, it was forwarded to Health and
Effects Division (HED) and Environmental Fate and Effects Division (EFED) for an analysis of changes in
human and ecological toxicity.  A preliminary version of such an ecological  toxicity analysis based on
those data is presented later in this chapter.  HED is investigating the possibility of developing a similar
rough index of potential health risk based on the usage data as well. (There are, however, important
issues concerning inadequate exposure data at present which are discussed further below, in the sec-
tion "Conclusions: Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategies.")

Methodology
BEAD analyzed pesticide usage data for seven major crops: citrus, corn, cotton, potatoes, soybeans,

                                                                                  IV-7

-------
FOOD SAFETY

tomatoes and wheat.  These crops were chosen because (1) they represent a large portion of the U.S.
diet, (2) they are grown in several regions of the country, (3) they constitute a large number of acres and
(4) an annual in-house usage data source for these crops was available.
The usage data was obtained from Pesticide Profile, a database developed by Doane Marketing Re-
search1 from a survey of a sample of agricultural producers in the U.S.  The data are presently reported
as pounds of active ingredient for each pesticide applied and as the number of acre treatments2 for
each pesticide applied. In addition to pesticide usage data, data on the number of acres planted for
each crop was obtained from the USDA's Agricultural Statistics. Using 1988 usage data, BEAD estab-
lished a baseline of number of acre-treatments for the seven crops studies, and then analyzed 1989 data
for those crops for comparison purposes.

Because of the lack of a computerized database for 1988 data, pounds of active ingredient was not cal-
culated until 1989. Variables calculated from those data are: (1) the average pounds of active ingredi-
ent applied per acre treatment, (2) the average pounds of active ingredient applied per acre of crop
planted, (3) the total pounds of all active ingredients applied per crop, (4) the average pounds of active
ingredient per acre treatment, (5) the percentage of crop acres treated with each pesticide and (6) the
average number of all acre treatments per crop acre. These variables are in turn used to calculate the
indicator variables shown in Figures 3 to 6 and discussed below.

Results - Pesticide Usage for 1988 vs. 1989

Both overall and on a per acre basis, pesticide usage increased from 1988 to 1989 for the seven crops
studied. As shown in Rgure 3, the total number of pesticide treatments for the seven crops combined
increased from 449,906,000 acre treatments in 1988 to 489,712,000 acre treatments in 1989. Acre treat-
ments increased on each crop except for cotton. As shown in Figure 4 the average number of pesticide
treatments per acre also increased for each crop except for corn and soybeans.  Significant increases in
treatments per acre were seen for tomatoes (8.5 in 1988 to 14.5 in 1989) and citrus (7.4 in 1988 to 11.8
in 1989).3
Since data for pounds of active ingredient applied was not collected for 1988, the 1989 data creates a
base year for this variable. A total  of 483,000,000 pounds of active ingredient was applied in 1989 for
the seven crops studied. Figure 5 shows that a majority of pounds of active ingredient applied to the
seven indicator crops in 1989 (52.3% or 252,000,000 pounds) was applied to corn. Soybeans were sec-
ond with 90,000,000 pounds or 18.6%. The remaining five crops each accounted for less than 10% of
the total pounds of active ingredient applied.  On a per acre basis, tomatoes were first with an average
of 56 pounds of active ingredient per acre in 1989 as set forth in Figure 6.  Citrus was second with an
average of 32.3 pounds of active ingredient, followed by potatoes with 15.7 pounds of active ingredient. The
remaining four crops had aggregate usage rates of less than 5 pounds of active ingredient per acre.4
   1 Please note that individual pesticide data contained in this database are proprietary data and should not be released
    to the public without the prior consent of Doane Marketing Research, Inc.
   2 "Acre treatment" means the sum of all treatments of an acre of a crop with a particular pesticide. Since many acres
    are treated more than once a year, the number of acre treatments cannot be used to calculate the percentage of
    crop treated unless there is an adjustment for the average number of applications. The number of acres treated at
    least once are referred to as "base acres treated."  Base acres treated would be a more useful variable to calculate
    the percentage of crop treated but it does not reflect the intensity of pesticide use (i.e. multiple treatments). How-
    ever, since Pesticide Profile contains data on base acres treated only for crops in the aggregate and not for indi-
    vidual chemicals, use of acre treatments is the best alternative available with respect to individual chemical analysis.
   3 Data for acre treatments for specific pesticides was also developed by BEAD but is not included in this report due to
    space considerations. It will be made available to interested parties within the EPA promptly upon request
   4 Data for pounds of active ingredient for specific pesticides was also developed by BEAD but is not included in this
    report due to space considerations. It will be made available to interested parties within the EPA promptly upon
    request
IV-8

-------
                                                                                  FOOD SAFETY

Pesticide Usage Tracking
Based on only two years of data, it is difficult to draw reliable conclusions as to the reasons for the
changes in pesticide usage from 1988 to 1989. For instance, it has been stated by some that 1988 was
an aberration for pesticide usage because it was a severe drought year for large parts of the country.
However, it is very difficult to determine whether 1988 was an aberration without more data for compari-
son. BEAD intends to continue assessing these indicators in future years so that in time trends can be
evaluated.
Starting with 1990 data, BEAD will expand the existing database of seven crops to include apples. Fur-
ther, the OPP Environmental Indicators Workgroup is currently assessing (1) additional expansions to the
database either to add additional crops to the database or to expand the database to non-agricultural
usage of pesticides such as golf courses or commercial turf farms and (2) further refinements to the ex-
isting  database by either obtaining another source of the same data for comparison to determine the
confidence in the database or by obtaining additional information such as base acres treated. BEAD will
support the expansions and refinements approved by the workgroup by providing pesticide usage data
consistent with available funding for this project.
                                                                                      IV- 9

-------
 FOOD SAFETY

 Figure 3.   Number of Acre Treatments on Indicator Crops
                180,000 -i-
                160,000 --
                140,000 - -
                120,000 --

   Acre
   Treatments     100,000
   in Thousands
                 80,000 - -
                 60,000 - -
                 40,000 - -
                 20,000 --
                                                          Data quality: Moderate; data collec-
                                                          tion involves self-reporting, preci-
                                                          sion and accuracy not well defined.

                                                          Relevance to program; Moderate;
                                                          relevant to risk-reduction goals but
                                                          not a direct measure.
                           Wheat  Tomatoes Soybeans  Potatoes  Cotton     Corn     Citrus
Source: Doane Marketing, Inc. Pesticide Profile, 1989.
IV- 1O

-------
                                                                                FOOD SAFETY
Figure 4.   Average Number of Pesticide Treatments Per Acre
             18 -r
             16 --
             14 - -
             12 --
   Number of
   Pesticide   10
   Treatments
              6 - -
              4 - -
              2 --
                                                        Data quality; Moderate; data collec-
                                                        tion involves self-reporting, preci-
                                                        sion and accuracy not well defined.

                                                        Relevance to program: Moderate;
                                                        relevant to risk-reduction goals but
                                                        not a direct measure.
                    Wheat  Tomatoes Soybeans Potatoes  Cotton    Corn    Citrus
Source: Doane Marketing, Inc. Pesticide Profile, 1989.
                                                                                    IV-11

-------
FOOD SAFETY
Figure 5.   Percentage of Total Pounds of Active Ingredient Applied to
             Indicator Crops in 1989

A total of 483,195,000 pounds of active ingredient were applied in 1989 to the crops in the graph below.

                                                               Soybeans
                                                               18.60%
 Data quality!  Moderate;
 data collection involves
 self-reporting, precision
 and accuracy not well
 defined.

 Relevance to program:
 Moderate; relevant to
 risk-reduction goals but
 not a direct measure.
         Corn
         52.26%
 Wheat
 5.83%


 Tomatoes
 4.59%

Citrus
5.58%
                                                                    Potatoes
                                                                    4.27%
                                                            Cotton
                                                            8.87%
Source: Doane Marketing, Inc. Pesticide Profile, 1989.
Figure 6.  Average Pounds of Active Ingredient Applied to
             Indicator Crops in 1989
    Average Pounds
    of Active
    Ingredient Per
    Acre
                   60 -r-
                   50 --
40  - -
                   30 - -
                   20 - -
                   10 - -
                                     Data quality: Moderate; data collec-
                                     tion involves self-reporting, preci-
                                     sion and accuracy not well defined.

                                     Relevance to program; Moderate;
                                     relevant to risk-reduction goals but
                                     not a direct measure.
                        Wheat  Tomatoes Soybeans Potatoes  Cotton    Corn    Citrus
Source: Doane Marketing, Inc. Pesticide Profile, 1989.
 IV- 12

-------
                                                                                FOOD SAFETY

Environmental Indicator  Results:  Pesticide Use
Trends Analysis,  1966  to 1989

Comprehensive pesticide use data is fundamental to environmental indicators for food safety, ecological
effects and worker exposure. It is intuitive that if usage patterns of more toxic pesticides decline or pes-
ticide usage overall declines, all three of the above pesticide strategic initiatives will be served.  (This
must be qualified by noting that in some cases a reduction in pounds applied does not always indicate
improvement in relative risk, just as in some cases high application rates are not necessarily indicative of
increased risk. Relative toxicity and exposure factors must be included for a true risk assessment.) Re-
strictions imposed by US EPA have been a fundamental force (as well as market factors) in changing the
national use pattern for many active ingredients during the past 20 years. The following graphs describe
national pesticide use and pesticide replacement analysis of selected large acreage crop pesticides
done by Resources for the Future. To this usage analysis, we have applied human and ecological toxic-
ity values as a preliminary assessment of pesticide usage pattern alterations. The human and ecological
toxicity data were provided by the Office of Pesticide Programs.
Figure 7 displays the aggregate national usage estimates for the four pesticide use categories (herbi-
cides, insecticides, fungicides and other) for the time period 1966 to 1989. In the aggregate, pesticide
use on US crops doubled between 1966 and 1976 in terms of the volume of active ingredients applied.
Much of this increase was due to herbicides for weed control in major field crops such as corn and soy-
beans. This increase continued until 1982 due to a steady increase in the proportion of field crop acres
treated with herbicides.  Herbicide use has declined in volume since 1982 due to the introduction of
lower use per acre compounds and reductions in per acre use amounts of older chemicals (i.e., atr-
azine). Figure 7 also indicates that agricultural use of insecticides rose in volume from 1966 to 1971 and
then began a decline in usage which has continued to 1989. The increase in insecticide use between
1966 and 1971 was due to an increase in cotton acreage, a rise in insecticide use on sorghum acreage
and a large increase in the volume of oil to control insects in citrus and fruit and nut orchards. The de-
creases in insecticide use between 1971 and 1982 were due almost entirely to changes in cotton.  Lower
use volume synthetic pyrethroids (i.e., fenvalerate and permethrin) replaced toxaphene (EPA ban in
1982) and methyl parathion. The decrease in agricultural insecticide use between 1982 and 1989 is due
in part to a decline of the use of oil used to control insects.
Figure 8 illustrates the results of the 1986 EPA emergency suspension of the herbicide dinoseb - sus-
pended due to teratogenicity, reproductive and acute effects. One of the major uses of dinoseb was to
control weeds in peanut fields in the Southeast. Full registration of paraquat for peanuts was approved
by EPA in 1988 and has now replaced dinoseb for this use.  Paraquat does not appear to exhibit the
chronic human health effects inherent to dinoseb but is very acutely toxic and controversial. Paraquat is
not highly toxic to birds and aquatic species.

Figure 9 shows the national use of five herbicides used primarily for grass weed control in corn acreage.
Propachlor was the dominate herbicide for grass in corn in 1971 but has declined since then largely due
to the substitution of alachlor which is less of an irritant to eyes and noses then propachlor. The decline
in alachlor use since 1982 islargely due to the substitution of metolachlor.  Alachlor is a "B-2" oncogen,
white metolachlor is a less potent C-non-quantifiable oncogen.  EPTC has in recent years displaced
much of butylates' use with the introduction of a safener (a pesticide additive to prevent plant injury) and
reductions in EPTC's price.
Figure 10 shows the use trend for five herbicides that are used primarily in corn for broadleaf weed con-
trol. Atrazine was introduced in 1959 and soon replaced 2,4-D as it provided better corn tolerance and
less risk of drift injury to other plants than 2,4-D. The decline of atrazine from 1976 to 1989 can be attrib-
uted to both the growth in the use of cyanazine and the reduction of atrazine's application rate per
treated acre. Both atrazine and cyanazine are listed by EPA as human oncogens.  None of these broad-
leaf weed herbicides are highly toxic to wildlife species.
                                                     U.S. EPA Headquarters LiLru."
                                                            Mail code 3201       '    IV-13
                                                     1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
                                                        Washington DC 20460

-------
FOOD SAFETY

Figure 7. National Agricultural Pesticide Use Trend, 1966-1989
   600'


   500-


g 400-


£ 300-


   200-


   100-


     0
o
                                           Herbicides
                                            ^»
                                           ——^---

                                           Insecticides
                                           —*--
                                           Fungicides
                                           --Q--
                                           Other
           1966
1971
                                 1976
1982
1989
Source: Resources for the Future, U.S. Pesticide Use Trends: 1966- 1989.1992.
Data quality; Moder-
ate; data collection
Involves self-reporting,
precision and accu-
racy not well defined.

Relevance to program!
Moderate; relevant to
risk-reduction goals
but not a direct mea-
sure.
Figure 8- Herbicide Use In Peanuts: Georgia, 1966-1989
/uu-
600-


•0500-
o5
co
£• 400-
»^
CO
fl5
£••
5 300-
^^
o
8 .
- 200-


100-


o-"

/t
xx <
x' 1
1 • •
\ r
^x *. /
X 1 /
\ /
. 	 ^-' \ /
^* — ' /
' » /
' > /
» /
*'' y
/ A
/ A
/\
/ / \
/ / *
/ / >
/
* / \
/ \


m
Paraquat
— •+— -
Dinoseb




















1969 1973 1975 1977 1980 1984 1987 1988
Source: Resources for the Future. U.S. Pesticide Use Trends: 1966- 1989,1992.
IV-14

-------
                                                                        FOOD SAFETY
 Figure 9. Herbicide Use In Corn For Grass Weed Control:
            National Use Trend, 1966-1989
          1966      1971       1976      1982
 Source: Resources for the Future, U.S. Pesticide Use Trends: 7966-7989,1992.
                     1989
                                                              Propachlor
                                                              • »^k..-.
                                                              • »^p»

                                                              EPTC
                                                              —*--
                                                              Butylate
                                                              --Q--
                                                              Alachlor


                                                              Metolachlor
                    Data quality; Moder-
                    ate; data collection
                    Involves self-reporting,
                    precision and accu-
                    racy not well defined.
                    Relevance to program;
                    Moderate; relevant to
                    risk-reduction goals
                    but not a direct mea-
 Figure 10. Herbicide Use In Corn For Broadleaf Control:
             National Use Trend, 1966-1989
   8O

   70

   6O

   5O
I401
5 30i

                               2,4-D

                               Dicamba

                               Atrazine

                               Cyanazine

                               Bramoxynil
                    1971
1976
1982
1989
 Source: Resources for the Future, as. Pesticide Use Trends: 1966-1989.1992.
                                                                           IV-15

-------
FOOD SAFETY

Figure 11 shows the use trend for herbicides that are used primarily in soy beans for grass weed control.
Trifluralin grew dramatically after 1973 because it could be tank mixed with broadleaf weed control pesti-
cides for one spray application. In recent years trifluraline use has declined due to substitution of
pendimethalin. Trifluralin is listed as a human oncogen, and is also highly toxic to fish.
Figure 12 shows the use trend for herbicides that are used primarily in soy beans for broadleaf weed
control. Chloramben was replaced in the 1970s by metribuzin, linuron and bentazon as these were less
expensive for broadcast spraying. Metribuzin and linuron use have declined in recent years due to the
introduction of new herbicides such as chomazone, chlorimufron, imazaguin and imazethapyr. None of
these four appear to present ecotoxicity concerns. The decreased use of metribuzin is due partially to
concerns regarding crop injury. Linuron is listed as a human oncogen.
Figure 13 illustrates pesticide substitution patterns as a result of the EPA ban on toxaphene in 1982.
Toxaphene was cancelled due to concerns of oncogenicity, population reduction in nontarget species,
toxicity to aquatic organisms and chronic effects to wildlife. Toxaphene use declined from 1976 to 1982
due to both a decline in the effectiveness in controlling insects as well as the introduction of fenvalerate
and permethrin. (Methyl parathion shows a parallel decline with toxaphene as the two pesticides were
usually applied in tank mixtures.) Since 1982 the effectiveness of both permethrin and fenvalerate in
controlling cotton insects has declined (as insects developed resistance) which led to an increase in the
use of cyfluthrin, cypermethrin, lambdacyholothrin and thiodicarb. These compounds are effective at a
much lower application rate and are extremely toxic to aquatic species. Some of these new insecticides
are toxic at levels that are undetectable with current technology making field monitoring very difficult if
not impossible.
Figure 14 shows a significant rise in the use of 1,3 dichloropropene (1,3-D) following EPA's ban of EDB
due to concerns including oncogenicity, muta genicity and reproductive effects. Acres of tomatoes
treated with 1,3-D fumigant has increased in the 1980s as it has proven to be a good nematodicide.
IV-16

-------
Figure 11. Herbicide Use In Soybean For Grass Weed
            Control: National Use Trend, 1966-1989
            1966      1971      1976       1982

Source: Resources lor the Future, U.S. Pesticide Use Trends: 1966- 1989.1992.
                                                     1989
Figure 12. Herbicide Use In Soybeans For Broadleaf
            Control: National Use Trend, 1966-1989
                                                  FOOD SAFETY


                                               Trifluralin
                                               ...4....

                                               Pendimethalin
                                               —9K--
                                               Ethalfluralin
                                               --Q--
                                               Metolachlor
                                                                     Fluazifop
                                                                     Alachlor
                                            Date Quality!
                                            Moderate; data
                                            collection in-
                                            volves self-re-
                                            porting, precision
                                            and accuracy not
                                            well defined.
                                            Belevane* to
                                            Program: Moder-
                                            ate; relevant to
                                            risk-reduction
                                            goals but not  a
                                            direct measure.
                                                               Chloramben

                                                               Linuron
                                                               —*--
                                                               Bentazon
                                                               --Eh-
                                                               Metribuzin
                                                               Clomazone
                                                               -rA-
                                                               Imazaquin
           1966
1971
                                1976
1982
1989
     Resources for the Future, U.S. Pesticide Use Trends: 1966 - 1969,1992.
                                                                          IV- 17

-------
 FOOD SAFETY

 Figure 13. National Cotton Insecticide Use, 1966-1989

           7000-
                   1971       1976       1982       1989
 Source: Resources for the Future, U.S. Pesticide Use Trends: 1966- 1989,1992.
Toxaphene

Methyl Parathfon
                                                                Fen/Esfenvalerate
                                                                Cyfluthrin

                                                                Cypermethrin
                                                                Permethrin
Data quality; Moder-
ate; data collection
involves self •reporting,
precision and accu-
racy not well defined.

Relevance to program;
Moderate; relevant to
risk-reduction goals
but not a direct mea-
sure.
Figure 14. Fumigant Use on California Tomatoes, 1966 -1989



"S
&
1 	
r—
§
O
8










3£r
30-

25-

"ST
1 20-
3
I15"
ID-




S'




*..
/ \ /
/ ••:. /
/ V'
/
/
/'


•/
\
\
\ ^
\ >™\
* / \
\ / \
/^ \ ^
^^ \ \ ^X—.^
• \ \ 1 1
\ \ ^*r "X
tf 	 -^ 	 -fr 	 ^ 	 -n^r— ^ 	 •* |









,
EDB
"•+••-
1,3-D
iB«^|^W
Methyl Biomide
--B~
DBCP
Metam Sodium










                  1977   1982   1984   1985  1986   1987   1988
 Source: Resources for the Future, U.S. Pesticide Use Trends: 1966-1989,1992.
 IV-18

-------
                                                                              FOOD SAFETY

Conclusions   Comparison of Indicator  Results to

Strategies and Objectives

OPP's major strategy for food safety is to prevent or reduce risk due to pesticide residues on food. A
starting point in the effort to develop related indicators is to analyze usage data. With the 1988 and 1989
data shown here, OPP has begun to establish a baseline that will be useful in future years to show in-
creases or decreases in usage of pesticides on major crops. A next step will be to rank these pesticides
by human toxicity factors and track increases and/or decreases in usage.

The Resources for the Future 24-year trend data for pesticide usage are not known to be sufficiently
complete or precise to support a full risk assessment of all pesticides for a certain crop. However, the
data address all major pesticides used on each of the major U.S. crops discussed, and do demonstrate
a decline in use of pesticides very toxic to humans, which is the goal of the Office of Pesticides Pro-
grams safer pesticides strategy. In addition, the data remind us that some individual pesticide substitu-
tions are more toxic to test organisms than the chemicals they have replaced, so that increased efforts to
assess threats to wildlife species seem warranted. This analysis also supports OPP's plan to continue
collection of more precise usage data for improving pesticide assessment in the future. OPP's intention
to develop comprehensive usage data coupled with human and ecological pesticide risk indices will pro-
vide high quality environmental indicators to serve all the Office of Pesticide Programs strategic initiatives.
For OPP, risk ranking and tracking over time would require additional data. OPP plans to develop im-
proved food consumption  models for population subgroups to  better estimate exposure to pesticide
residues and reduce uncertainties in risk assessments. There  are no indicators in place for judging risk
over time because residue data currently available from other agencies such as Food and Drug Admin-
istration and U.S. Department of Agriculture are not of high enough quality for trend analysis. Collection
of more and better quality  residue data is extremely costly.  There are no indicators in place to monitor
trends in bioaccumulation of pesticide residues in human food chains.
                                                                                 IV-19

-------
ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS

Ecological Effects

Goals/Objectives
The goal is to reduce ecological exposure and risk from pesticides in the environment.

Strategy
Activities to reduce ecological effects from pesticides include registration and special reviews of cur-
rently used pesticides, and certification and training of applicators, dealers, and designers to reduce or
avoid ecological exposure. Nationally, the EPA is promoting agricultural practices that reduce or elimi-
nate reliance on chemical input such as Sustainable Agriculture and Integrated Pest Management
(IPM). To increase local and state capacity the agency is promoting regional, state, tribe, and territorial
initiatives to reduce ecological exposure. Additionally, to reduce the burden to the environment caused
by pesticides, EPA is promoting: protection programs for ground water and endangered species and
outreach and education activities; reduction of the presence of pesticides in sensitive ecosystems; state
support for uniform fish action levels; and update mapping of pesticide usage and location of habitats
with USDA and FWS for endangered species.  Numerous geographic initiatives such as the Chesapeake
Bay Program, The Great Lakes National Program, Wetlands Initiatives, and the Caribbean and Gulf of
Mexico programs are designed to reduce ecological exposure and burden.

Additional Comments
Pressure has been mounting on  EPA to take major steps to accelerate its review of existing chemicals to
determine the degree of hazard  they may present to the environment and public health.  In 1988, FIFRA
was amended to enable EPA to accelerate the re-registration review of existing chemicals and to assure
that their use does not pose unreasonable risks to humans or the environment. The majority of pesti-
cides used in the U.S. were registered prior to the establishment of contemporary scientific standards for
evaluating their potential to cause unreasonable adverse effects. These pesticides pose, and will con-
tinue to pose, an uncertain degree of hazard to the environment until required studies have been con-
ducted, reviewed and appropriate regulatory action has been taken. By 1997, OPP estimates that 85%
of these existing chemicals will have undergone re-registration review. In addition, EPA is actively pro-
moting changes in agricultural and urban pesticide practices to decrease the overall use.


Environmental Indicator Results:  Ecological
Hazard  Index of Status

This section presents an index that combines pesticide usage information and toxicity data for ecologi-
cal test organisms. The index has been developed as an environmental  indicator for the safer pesticides
and reduced  risk goals of OPP's strategic plan.
The usage information was developed by Biological and  Economic Analysis Division (BEAD) for seven
major crops.  This is the same usage data set reported in this report's section on Food Safety.  The Eco-
logical Effects Branch compiled the acute toxicity information for birds, fish, and aquatic invertebrates.

Methodology

Hazard Data
The top 15 pesticides (by poundage) for all seven crops were used to calculate the index.
  1. These 15 pesticides were grouped by toxicity category for each type of test organism (see below);
  2. The pounds of the pesticides within each group were added; and
  3. The total pounds for each "toxicity group" was graphed.


IV-20

-------
                                                                             ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS

Rgures 15 through 18 are graphs showing pounds per category for each of the test organism groups.
The goal for Safer Pesticides would be to have the column heights decrease for the highly toxic and very
highly toxic categories, while the pounds used column heights increase for the slightly toxic and practi-
cally non-toxic categories.
No trend analysis is possible yet. OPP intends to track this information over time to assess trends start-
ing with 1989 as a baseline.
1988-1989 Acre Treatment Index
The pesticides were categorized according to the following Toxicity Categories. These are the standard
categories used by EEB to characterize pesticides for risk assessment purposes. They refer strictly to
toxicity or hazard, and do not suggest risk since they do not take into account exposure.

       Rsh and Aquatic        Dietary               Acute
        Invertebrates          Avian                Avian                Toxicity
        LC5Q in PPM      LC5Q in PPM        LD5Q In mg/kg            Category
            <0.1              <50                <10             very highly toxic
           0.1-1           50-500              10-50              highly toxic
           >1-10         >500-1000           >50-500          moderately toxic
         >10-100        >1000-5000         >500-2000            slightly toxic
           >100             >5000               >2000           practically non-toxic
Note: Avian Dietary LC50 is the quantity of toxicant in the diet calculated to kill 50% of the test popula-
tion. Avian Acute LD50 is the quantity of toxicant calculated to kill 50% of the test population given in a
single oral dose.

The top 15 pesticides (by acre treatments) for all seven crops were used to calculate the index.
   1. These 15 pesticides were grouped by toxicity category for each type of test organism (see below);
   2. The acre treatments of the pesticides within each group were added; and
   3. The total acre treatment pounds for each "toxicity group" was graphed.
Figures 19 through 22 are graphs showing acre treatment per toxicity category for each of the test or-
ganism groups. The goal of the Safer Pesticides strategy would be to have the pounds used column
height decrease over the highly toxic and very highly toxic categories, while the pounds used column
height increases over the slightly toxic and practically non-toxic categories.

Discussion

The following caveats should be borne in mind when using and interpreting this index. Caveats on this
data as noted on the Food Safety section of this report apply here as well.
   • The usage information was used as presented by BEAD.  The toxicity information was taken either
     from the Branch Pesticide Files or from publications providing scientifically sound toxicity informa-
     tion. The toxicity values are from tests with the most sensitive representative test species for each
     group, not the same species.
   • Caution is advised in drawing any conclusions from the two years of acre treatment data. Pesticide
     use can be affected by factors other than pesticide regulation and EPA efforts to encourage use of
     safer pesticides. These include but are not limited to economics, efficacy and pest resistance, and
     weather conditions. (These factors are discussed further In the section  of this report on long term
     pesticide usage trends as estimated by Resources for the Future.)

   • Because of some questions about the average application rate information, the EEB is proceeding
     with a Hazard Index. Additional work with BEAD is needed before developing a Risk Index (that is,
     an index where ecological exposures estimates are taken into account). The additional work in-
     volves determining confidence limits on the usage information.


                                                                                       IV- 21

-------
ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS

   • This hazard index does not take into account the level of exposure. It is assumed generally that
     more of a hazardous pesticide is undesirable.  However, it is not assumed that more of a hazardous
     pesticide always equals greater risk. Conversely, less of a hazardous pesticide is not assumed to
     always equal less risk.

   • While the same toxicity values were used for each pesticide chosen, the pesticides chosen for the
     poundage index are not necessarily the same pesticides chosen for the acre treatment index.  For
     example, there are two pesticides in the acre treatment group that are practically nontoxic to
     aquatic invertebrates. There are no pesticides in the poundage group that are practically nontoxic
     to aquatic invertebrates.
IV-22

-------
                                                               ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
Figure 15. Pesticide Used on Seven Indicator Crops (Wheat, Tomatoes,
            Soybeans, Potatoes, Cotton, Corn, and Citrus) Grouped by
            Acute Toxicity to Birds Indexed by Pounds

140
CD
T3
£ 120 •
'55
^ 100 •
0
f 80'
.0
I 60'
.c
«" 40'
c
o 20-

'











;
:
'::::::::::::.::':::-:;.::::::;:-::':x^:>::o::
,
• •• • 4 : •'
Illllllllll
llllllllllli;
liiiiiililii:
Practically
Non-toxic










; ;. ;.-.-- ,;.-.-.-.; ..•:•.•.-.-.-.•.•:•..
.. : : :.:.
•A-:^x::>::$:>S:::::W::::>:::::::
: '
:
•X.-: :•:•: x x ;."y-:...:->x':y:;-x
;;.:||p||;;:;|;-t||
• •, . •:
Iliilllllll
:x^>:o:;x;>>xo:;>;:;:-:;::::;:::::;
Illlllll!
iiiiiii
Slightly Toxit













tlllilil
ijjiji
Moderately
Toxic















Highly Tc
Data Quality! Useful

relative information, not
intended to be considered
a precise measure of risk.
Relevance to program;
High.
II1 989

>xic Very Highly
Toxic
                                 Toxicity Categories

Source: Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs
Figure 16.  Pesticides Used on the Seven Indicator Crops, Grouped by
            Dietary Toxicity to Birds Indexed by Pounds
250
CD
S 200
CD
Q.
§ 150
I 100
.c
CO
c 50
1
-

!l!!!f||
'•:•:•:'•:':•: •:":::•:-:->;• ,:::::::::x ;: •.'•:".--•
Illlllli;;::
xllilx


llllllli!!!i

Practically Slightly Toxic Moderately
Non-toxic Toxic

Data quality; Useful
relative information, not
intended to be considered
a precise measure of risk.
Relevance to program;
High.
HJ 1989
:ii;::;:
Highly Toxic Very Highly
Toxic
                                 Toxicity Categories

Source: Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs
                                                                       IV -23

-------
ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
Figure 17.  Pesticides Used on the Seven Indicator Crops, Grouped by
            Acute Toxicity to Fish Indexed by Pounds

120 '
CD
P 100 -
CD
DL
o 80 '
1 60 '
1
;§ 40 '
1
1 20 -
DL
o •















Practically
Non-toxic
Data quality; Useful relative
























information, not intended to be
considered a precise measure of risk.
Relevance to program: High.
H1 1989
















Slightly Toxic Moderately Highly Toxic Very Highly
Toxic Toxic
                                Toxicity Categories

Source: Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs


Figure 18.  Pesticides Used on the Seven Indicator Crops, Grouped by
            Acute Toxicity to Invertebrate Indexed by Pounds
Data quality; Useful relative
information, not intended to be
considered a precise measure of risk.
200 '
•o 180 -
'o
"•£ 160 '
^ 140 '
H—
"el 12° "
J 100 -
1 80 -
^ 60 "
"1 40 -
° 20 -
0 •











Relevance to program; High.
• 1989







Practically Slightly Toxic Moderately Highly Toxic Very Highly
Non-toxic Toxic Toxic
                                Toxicity Categories

Source: Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs
IV-24

-------
                                                                       ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
 Figure 19. Pesticides Used on the Seven Indicator Crops, Grouped by
             Acute Toxicity to Birds Indexed by Acre Treatments
     i
     •
     C8
     £
     I
                        Data quality; Useful relative
                        information, not intended to be
                        considered a precise measure of risk.

                        Relevance to program; High.
                                                                              1988

                                                                              1989
                Practically
                 Non-toxic
 Slightly Toxic    Moderately     Highly Toxic
                 Toxic

            Toxicity Categories
Very Highly
  Toxic
Source: Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs.
Figure 20.  Pesticides Used on the Seven Crops, Grouped by Dietary
             Toxicity to Birds Indexed by Acre Treatments
       250
                                                     Data quality; Useful relative
                                                     information, not intended to be
                                                     considered a precise measure of risk.


                                                     Relevance to program: High.
                                                                              1988

                                                                              1989
             Practically
             Non-toxic
Slightly Toxic     Moderately       Highly Toxic     Very Highly
                 Toxic                          Toxic
                                         Toxicity Categories
Source: Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs.
                                                                                IV-25

-------
ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
Figure 21.  Pesticides Used on the Seven Indicator Crops, Grouped by
             Acute Toxicity to Fish Indexed by Acre Treatments
                                                    Data quality: Useful relative
                                                    information, not intended to be
                                                    considered a precise measure of risk.

                                                    Relevance to program; High.
            Practically
             Non-toxic
 Slightly Toxic
   Moderately
     Toxic

Toxicity Categories
Highly Toxic
Very Highly
  Toxic
Source:  Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs
Figure 22.  Pesticides Used on the Seven Indicator Crops, Grouped by
             Acute Toxicity to Invertebrates Indexed by Acre Treatments
     120
                             Data quality;  Useful relative
                             information, not intended to be
                             considered a precise measure of risk.

                             Relevance to program; High.
       0
            Practically
            Non-toxic
Slightly Toxic   Moderately    Highly Toxic
                Toxic

          Toxicity Categories
                          Very Highly
                             Toxic
Source: Ecological Effects Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs
IV -26

-------
                                                                        ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS


Conclusions   Comparison  of Indicator Results to

Strategies and Objectives

The focus of the ecological risk strategy is to reduce ecological exposure to pesticides. Several indica-
tors are presented in this report; others are being developed.
OPP has developed an ecological toxicity indicator. It employs the pesticide usage data presented ear-
lier in this report. The chemicals used on major crops were ranked according to toxicity factors for birds,
fish, and aquatic invertebrates. An indicator of ecological risk is under development and is dependent
upon development of reliable residue and exposure data.
With this report, OPP is presenting state data on pesticides in ground water compiled from many
sources. These data represent a variety of monitoring study designs, analytical methods, limits of detec-
tion, and other factors. As such, they cannot be used for trend analysis or to draw conclusions about the
overall state of ground water in the U.S. They are useful, however, in support of other activities in OPP
such as development of State Management Plans for the Pesticides in Ground Water Strategy and tar-
geting areas in need of further study. Over time, improved technology and more uniform sampling and
analysis practices are likely to increase the utility of these data.
As noted in the worker protection strategy, OPP is developing an incident data management system.
This will include ecological incidents (e.g., fish kills, bird kills, other biological effects) as well as human
impact incidents. Although reporting inconsistencies limit the utility of the data for trend analyses, track-
ing of  fish and wildlife mortality incident reports could become at least a qualitatively useful indicator for
the ecological effects strategy.
Future EMAP monitoring is considered a very promising source of data on pesticide contamination of
biota and environmental compartments, and is potentially useful in inferring ecological effects of such
contamination.  Effective cooperation between the Pesticides Program and EMAP could facilitate the
collection of appropriate data. This would provide a powerful indicator of strategy success as safer pes-
ticides and safer usage practices (such as low input  sustainable agriculture and integrated pest man-
agement) are substituted over time.
                                                                                 IV-27

-------
WORKER PROTECTION

Worker  Protection

Goals/Objectives

To safeguard farm workers' health from exposure to pesticides through a combination of regulatory, edu-
cational and research programs and to develop a multimedia strategy for worker protection programs by
coordinating with OSHA and state and federal labor authorities.

Strategy
EPA has proposed new Worker Protection standards which should be final in FY1992. Implementation
will require extensive outreach and training efforts. Additional activities of the strategy include: improv-
ing the collecting pesticide misuse and incident data and other violation data gathered from states and
regions; preparing and updating regulations that reduce exposure in transportation, mixing/loading, ap-
plication and disposal of pesticides; and implementing Post Exposure Application Monitoring. While
increasing state, tribe and territory capacity, EPA is working to raise the minimum standards for worker
protection training programs to teach pesticide exposure reduction at all steps in production, transporta-
tion, application, and disposal. Chemical specific risk reduction measures have also been undertaken
such as the recent settlement agreement on parathion.

Additional Comments
There are both real and perceived unreasonable environmental and health risks from the use of currently
registered pesticides. The introduction of new pesticides may also add to present risks unless careful
consideration is given to the introduction of safer pesticides. For both new and existing pesticides, meth-
ods must be devised to reduce pesticide exposure and the environmental burden that may result.
Effective program support and enforcement will require that regions provide technical assistance, out-
reach and education, track and analyze problem areas and oversee EPA's programs in the states,
tribes, and territories.

Environmental  Indicator Results;  Pesticide

Poisoning Case Study

The Parathion Problem
Early surveys of the nation's hospitals (1971 to 1982) consistently showed that parathion was the leading
cause of poisoning among workers handling pesticides, often far exceeding the other pesticides in
terms of the estimated number of workers hospitalized.  This led to two questions: is the parathion poi-
soning experience a function of widespread use or high toxicity; and what is the current situation with
poisoning?

Data Used for the Solution

California is the only state that collects comprehensive data on pesticide poisonings and pesticide us-
age on an ongoing basis. Examination of their data for the years 1982 through  1988 permitted a com-
parison between parathion and other pesticides in terms of numbers of poisonings and in terms of num-
ber of poisonings compared to number of applications reported (Figure 23). California law requires that
all applications of restricted pesticides, such as parathion, be reported. In addition, under workers com-
pensation, physicians are not reimbursed for treating worker poisonings unless they report cases as
required under state law. The analysis was based on over 2,000 cases of worker pesticide poisoning.

Results of the Indicator Analysis Prior to EPA Action

Parathion was the leading cause of agricultural poisoning in California in 1982 to 1988. Fifty other insec-
ticides likely to be used as alternatives to parathion were also considered. In each case the number of


IV-28

-------
                                                                         WORKER PROTECTION
Figure 23. Parathion Poisonings Compared to 50 Alternative Insecticides

             in California
                                                                       T  2
                       Data quality; Moderate; state

                       program encourages

                       appropriate reporting.
                       Relevance to program: High.
  c   100   -
  TS    80   ••
                            OT
                       1.5
                                                                              CQ
                                                                               en
                                                                       -•  1
                                                                       -•  0.5
              25th %tile    50th %tile     75th %tile    90th %tile


                          Insecticide Percentiles                  Parathion
Poisonings/Applications
                  Number of Poisonings



  Source: California data totaled for 1982-1988.
                                                                               o'
                                                                               CD
                                                                               o'
                                                                                  IV -29

-------
WORKER PROTECTION

poisonings was divided by the number of applications during the time period to calculate a poisoning
ratio.  With one exception (a pesticide responsible for a large cluster type poisoning), parathion had the
highest poisoning ratio of any pesticide examined. When the 50 pesticides were ranked by percentile,
parathion exceeded the 90th percentile for number of agricultural poisonings by more than twofold and u
exceeded the poisoning  ratio (per 1,000 applications) for the 90th percentile by 60%.  This demon-
strated that parathion poisoning in workers was severe (often resulting in hospitalization), frequent, and
not due to widespread use but rather due to the inherent extreme toxicity of the compound.
California has more restrictions than most states, such as closed mixing/loading system requirements,
medical monitoring, and longer re-entry intervals before workers can enter treated fields. Therefore, it was
likely that poisoning rates in other states would be as high if not higher than those found in California.

Resultant EPA Action
Through a negotiated settlement with the manufacturer, parathion use will be cancelled on 90 of the 99
crops where use was permitted by January 1992. Among the 90 crops eliminated were all fruit and veg-
etable crops where poisonings were most frequent and where worker exposure is known to be highest.
For the remaining 9 crops (principally small grains), closed mixing/loading, aerial application, and me-
chanical harvesting will be required. Even taking into account the poisonings that might occur from the
replacement insecticides, the overall number of worker poisonings due to pesticides is expected to de-
cline by over 10% with the removal of the more dangerous uses of parathion.

Future Planned Indicator Analysis and  Indicator Development

EPA will closely follow California's incident data to track the effects of the parathion cancellation, and
ensure it has been effective at preventing worker poisonings. Additional detailed analysis will be made of
other toxic pesticides used in California using the most current data to find out if other gains can be made in
terms of reduced worker poisoning. The goal is to identify those situations where safer alternative pesticides
can be used to achieve the same degree of pest protection.
OPP is sponsoring a conference in late April 1992 to help states other than California develop pesticide
poisoning reporting systems. EPA and states will exchange information on state-of-the-art surveillance
and investigation techniques. This will help states develop systems which enable EPA to assess pesti-
cide poisoning problems in key areas.  To the extent that EPA can fund states with mandatory pesticide
poisoning requirements to develop reporting systems, this will facilitate the establishment of baselines and
trends which EPA can use in the future to monitor adverse acute health effects of pesticide exposure.
 IV-3O

-------
                                                                         WORKER PROTECTION

Environmental  Indicator Results:  Poison Control
Center Data

Development of National Poison Control Center Data
Starting in 1984, the American Association of Poison Control Centers created a National Data Collection
System. To participate, each Poison Control Center had to use a computer readable standardized form
for collecting information and follow-up on each case to determine the outcome. Poison Centers, usually
associated with universities or hospitals, provide a service to the public and to other health profession-
als. About three-quarters of the calls to Centers come from the public, often parents concerned about
possible exposure in infants or young children. The remaining one-quarter of calls come from physi-
cians seeking advice on proper management of a poisoning case. The majority of exposures involve
young children who did not develop symptoms. Separate bars show the numbers of symptomatic poi-
sonings and cases treated in health care facilities.
Some parts of the country are not included in the current Poison Control Center data base. (Not in-
cluded are Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Illinois, and North Dakota, most
of Iowa, and Nevada, and parts of Texas and Tennessee.) Facilities reporting serve over 70%  of the U.S.
population. Since the majority (90%) of the exposures reported to Poison Control Centers occur in the
home, the data complement state data sources which predominantly focus on occupationally-related poison-
ings. Centers cannot participate unless they are certified for certain standards of staffing, training, and
implementation of uniform quality control procedures for handling and follow-up on each case. Records
show an increase in reported pesticide exposures that corresponds to the increased participation of
Poison  Centers from 1984 to 1989.
Pesticide Exposures and Poisonings as Environmental Indicators
Trends cannot be assessed based on absolute numbers of reports to the National Data Collection Sys-
tem because of the increased participation of Poison Centers over the years. However, trends can be
assessed using a proportionate analysis which shows how pesticide exposures (as a percentage) com-
pare with all other exposures to poisons, or by examining how exposures to specific pesticides (as a
percentage) compare to the total of all pesticide exposures in the numbers of people actually develop-
ing symptoms, and the numbers treated in healthcare facilities.
Figure 24 shows the percent of people reported as exposed to pesticides who actually displayed symp-
toms. In keeping with  the known high toxicity of parathion (discussed in the previous section), parathion
exposures were more  likely to result in symptoms than exposures to inseoSeides or organophosphates
as general classes. This indicates the potential usefulness of this kind of information in screening pesti-
cides as potentially needing particularly close regulatory review. Rgure 25a gives the percent pesticide
exposures treated in a health care facility as a proportion of the total pesticide exposures for different
classes of pesticides.  Treatment for herbicides and insecticides as a proportion of all exposures has
remained remarkably consistent over the 10 year period. Rodenticides and fungicides exposures, on
the other hand, appear to be receiving more treatment in later years.
Similarly, in Figure 25b, the proportion of exposures receiving treatment is depicted for groups of pesti-
cides:  2,4-D and 2,4,5-T, organophosphates alone, carbamates alone, and organophosphates in com-
bination with other pesticides.  OPP plans to conduct more specific analyses, especially for pesticides
currently under review by EPA. Human poisonings are preventable and these data may highlight oppor-
tunities for pollution prevention and risk reduction measures.  Eventually, the data may be able to serve
as indicators of any success of such measures in reducing hazardous accidental exposures, if all states
reported in the National Data Collection  System.
It should be noted that these data are independent of EPA; they are prepared by the private sector with-
out government funding. Reports on individual chemicals are available for purchase for chemicals in special
review. The figures presented here are based on the published annual summary data.

                                                                                   IV- 31

-------
WORKER PROTECTION
Figure 24a.  Percentage of Pesticide Exposure Resulting in Symptoms, by
              Pesticide Group 1985 - 1990
   80
 co  60

 • i
 Q
 |
CO

i  40

 c
 Q)
   20
           All Pesticides      Insecticides   Organophosphates    Parathion
                              Pesticide Group

Source: American Association of Poison Control Centers.

Figure 24b.  Percentage of Reported Pesticide Exposure
              Resulting in Symptoms, by Pesticide Group
              1985-1990
   100
           1985       1986      1987      1988
                                   Year
1989
            All Pesticides  Eg?] Insecticides     | Organophosphates
1990
          Parathion
                  Data quality; Mod-
                  erate; possible
                  differences across
                  locations and over
                  time.

                  Relevance; only
                  partially related to
                  EPA's programs.
 Source: American Association of Poison Control Centers.

 IV -32

-------
                                                                      WORKER PROTECTION
Figure 25a.  Human Pesticide Exposure Reported to Poison
               Control Centers, 1985 - 1990
     11
                1985      1986


•                Fungicides      | Insecticides


Source: Data from annual reports of the AAPCC
                                   1987      1988
                                        Year
                                                  1989
                                              Herbicides
          1990


       Rodenticides
Figure 25b.  Human Pesticide Exposure Reported to
               Poison Control Centers, 1985 - 1990
                                                              Data quality: Moderate;
                                                          possible differences
                                                          across locations and over
                                                          time.

                                                          Relevance; only partially
                                                              related to EPA's programs.
    0
    g
    o
ta
•:
I
Q
    t
         30
         20  --
         I0
                1985
                     1986
                                  1987      1988
                                        Year
1989
1990
              2,4-D or 2,4,5-T  gjCarbamates Alone  | 1} Organophosphates ppOPs in Combination

Source: Data from annual reports of the AAPCC
                                                                               IV-33

-------
WORKER PROTECTION

Conclusion:  Comparison of  Indicator Results to

Strategies and Objectives

As in the food safety strategy, the pesticide usage indicator will be well suited for monitoring the intro-
duction and use of safer pesticides as this relates to worker exposures, provided usage data are consis-
tently obtained for chemicals with significant worker exposures.
Progress is currently being made to improve worker exposure incident data collection. Improving inci-
dent data is an important component of the worker protection strategy. Although there are some prob-
lems with incident data collection for indicator purposes the very high incident data reported for para-
thion from California is consistent with the cancellation of all but nine uses of parathion. This is an ex-
ample of how incident data collection, if well and consistently organized, can be one of the most power-
ful indicators for the worker protection strategy.
 IV- 34

-------
                                                                         TOXIC SUBSTANCES
                                Toxic Substances


  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                      Human Health      Ecological       Welfare
      Unfinished Business Report          High to Medium,    Medium         Low
      (Hazardous Waste, Air Toxics        cancer
      Combined)                       High, non-cancer

      SAB Reducing Risk Report          High             Medium         Medium
      (Included Under Other Probtem Areas)

      Regional Comparative Risk          Medium to         law
                                      Med-High
  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                      1988             1990
      Air Toxics                        Medium           Med-High
      Biotechnology                    Med-Low          Low
      Worker Exposure                  High             High
      Hazardous Waste                 High             High

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

        33/50 Project           • Poll utfon Prevention Legislation     -Great Lakes
        Contaminated Media      • Gulf of Mexico                  • Estuary Programs
        Mexican Border         • Ground Water                  "Clean Air Act
        RCRA                 • Multimedia Enforcement          • Indoor Air
        Environmental Labelling
Problem  Definition

This problem area includes effects from identified toxic chemicals through all media and all exposure
routes. It does not include asbestos. There are overlaps with air toxics, inland waters, coastal waters,
and Superfund and waste problem areas. Worker exposure to toxics other than pesticides and biotech-
nology programs are also included in this category.

Existing Chemicals

Goals/Objectives
A key objective is the integration of risk screening, testing, assessment, and management into a coher-
ent, productive, and continuous process. Elements focus on managing identified risks as early as pos-
sible in the chemical review process by streamlining administrative review and decision making within
the process; examining pollution prevention opportunities to reduce processing and use of toxic chemi-
cals; involving interested parties through early notification of intended action; applying non-regulatory
alternatives and encouraging voluntary control actions; and considering a wide range of regulatory re-
sponses including the initiation of risk reduction actions early in the process.
Another important objective is to strengthen cooperation and coordination between headquarters media
offices, the regions, and other federal programs. Elements supporting this objective focus on team

                                                                                 IV-35

-------
EXISTING CHEMICALS

building and enhanced communications. They included facilitating chemical nominations from the re-
gions and other federal programs for screening and controlling risk; planning and coordinating head-
quarters , regional, and other federal partnerships to encourage voluntary actions aimed at reducing
risk; and seeking opportunities to enhance communications, utilize education, and provide technical
assistance between headquarters  and the regions and beyond the Agency to the general public and
the regulated community.

Strategy
The Existing Chemicals Program strategy relies on chemical specific risk assessments and regulation
when it is appropriate and necessary.  However, the focus of the strategy has shifted to include an em-
phasis on processing chemical clusters as an alternative to the chemical-by-chemical approach (this
includes both chemical use clusters and chemical class clusters) and on utilizing a much fuller range of
regulatory and non-regulatory options in risk management activities.

Additional Comments

Under the 1976 TSCA legislation, EPA ensures that chemicals in commerce do not present an "unrea-
sonable risk of injury to health or the environment." The Office of Toxic Substances Existing Chemicals
Program focuses on protecting human health and the environment from chemical risk by screening, test-
ing, assessing, and managing risks posed by chemicals currently in production. The traditional program
strategy involved chemical-by-chemical risk assessment and risk management with a distinct regulatory
emphasis.

Planned  Environmental  Indicator:   Existing
Chemicals

Development of New TRI Environmental Indicator Underway

OTS is leading an agency-wide workgroup to create a multi-media indicator, based on the Toxic Release
Inventory.  Current plans are to have a draft report on the proposed design of the index ready for wide-
spread review by early spring. Reporting on the indicator may begin this fiscal year, depending on the
results of the review.
The remainder of this section summarizes currently expected characteristics of the indicator. Figure 26
provides a schematic of the model under consideration for calculating the indicator for human health
impacts. A separate model is being developed for ecological impacts.

The TRI Environmental Indicator provides an annual measure of environmental well-being by weighting
reported emissions by toxicity and exposure characteristics, and will be utilized to examine trends on a
national basis. The index will be calculated by combining the individual scores of the TRI chemical-facil-
ity-media components. Each component's value is a measure of a chemical's risk level to either human
health or the environment based on some measure of the volume of release from a facility/the
chemical's toxicity, and potential exposed population for the media of release. Utilization of existing data
bases, models, and established procedures will enhance acceptability of the indicator and minimize
resource requirements.
The TRI Environmental Indicator will be used to: estimate human health  and ecological impacts of TRI
emissions; allow annual comparisons to assess progress; and communicate information to the  public on
progress in reducing risks from toxic releases.
IV-36

-------
     Figure 26. Methodology for Calculating TRI Indicator for Human Health
offsite transfers
POTW transfers


offsite
incineration
direct air
emissions
I
1 	 >
POTW sludge
ncineration

fugitive air
emissions
\
Air
<



1
onsite land disposal;
includes
underground injections
1
1
Volatilization 1
1
Ground
Water
offsi
dispose
undergroi
offsite transfers direct water
POTW transfers discharges
te land
1; includes
md injection
POTW sludge
land disposal
1
Surface Water

ef

POTW
transfers
OTW
fluent


i
CJ
                                       \
\

population
data

toxic it y
data



Exposure Evaluation

>„
>„
*

T
Exposure Weight
X
Population Weight
X
Toxicity Weight


                                Air
                                Index
                                     (aclllty,
                                     chemical
  Ground Water
  Index
        facility,
        chemical
                                                    Sum over all facilities and chemicals
   TRI Indicator
                                                                                               V
Surface Water
Index
      facility,
      chemical
                                                                                                                          O

                                                                                                                          O
                                                                                                                          I

-------
EXISTING CHEMICALS

The  33/50  Toxics Reduction Program

Strategy, Goal, and Objectives
The goal of EPA's 33/50 Program is to reduce toxic waste generation from industrial sources ambitiously,
quickly, and with a high degree of flexibility. The Program calls for voluntary industry reductions of the
generation of 17 high priority toxic chemicals, aimed at achieving an overall national reduction of 33% by
1992, and 50% by 1995. In 1988, over 6000 companies reported via the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI)
that 1.4 billion pounds of the 17 high priority chemicals were either released to the environment or trans-
ferred off-site to waste management facilities (Figure 27). The aim of the Program is to reduce this
amount by at least 50% (700 million pounds) and to make maximum use of pollution prevention in
achieving these reductions.  The interim objective is to reduce the amount by 33% (460 million pounds)
by 1992.
The 33/50 Program is an important model because industry participation is voluntary. A secondary goal
of the Program is to demonstrate whether voluntary reduction programs can augment the Agency's tradi-
tional regulatory approach by achieving targeted reductions more quickly than would regulations alone.

Environmental Indicator
The 33/50 Program was first announced in February 1991. As of February 1992, more than 700 compa-
nies had committed to an average reduction of 50% by 1995, for an overall reduction commitment of
more than 300 million pounds. The companies that have responded so far account for a disproportion-
ately large amount of total 1988 releases, 1 billion pounds out of the 1.4 billion pound total.  The second
33/50 Progress Report, summarizing the reduction commitments made so far by these companies will be
released in March 1992.

Data Quality Factors
Certain factors will need to be considered in evaluating the environmental results of the 33/50 Program.
OPPT acknowledges that emissions data from the early years of the Toxics Release Inventory, 1987 and
1988, have large sources of error. In addition to ordinary problems associated with management of any
large database, there were additional errors associated with reporters' misunderstandings of emissions
calculation or estimation procedures.  An important source of error in evaluating trends using early TRI
data was the provision that facilities could use estimates or actual monitored data, and that they might
use one in one year and another in another year, leading to apparent changes where real changes did
not occur. To evaluate the 33/50 Program results with a high degree of accuracy, corrections for such
sources of error will need to be applied by OPPT. For example, OPPT will need to document that facili-
ties in the 33/50 Program did not switch from estimated data to monitored data between 1988 and later
reporting years, or if they did, that industry-specific correction factors are applied to account for possible
overestimates in the base year.

Comparison of Indicator Results to Strategy
It is too early to evaluate the results of the 33/50 Program in terms of actual reductions of generation or
emissions of toxics. The reported information, on amounts of toxic reductions to which companies have
committed, is the best available data at present. While reduction commitments to date are a substantial
step toward the overall national goal, the 33/50 Program needs more participants, and aggressive re-
duction commitments in order to successfully reduce toxics through voluntary industry efforts.
IV- 38

-------
                                                                           EXISTING CHEMICALS
Figure 27. 33/50 Program Chemicals: Total TRI Releases and Transfers
             1988 vs. 1989
                                                       Data quality not rated;  33/5O Program
                                                       has not yet influenced these data.
                                                       Data quality may be different by 1992.
                Xylenes

         Trichloroethylene

          Trichloroethane

                Toluene

      Tetrachloroethylene

   Nickel and Compounds

       Methylene Chloride

    Methyl Isobutyl Ketone

      Methyl Ethyl Ketone

  Mercury and Compounds

    Lead and Compounds

               Cyanides

Chromium and Compounds

             Chloroform

     Carbon Tetrachloride

 Cadmium and Compounds

                Benzene
                                         i                i
                                       100             200

                                                  Millions of Pounds
300
400
Source: U.S. EPA Office of Toxic Substances, 33/50 Program Progress Report, July 1991.
                                                                                     IV-39

-------
EXISTING CHEMICALS


Figure 28. 33/50 Program:  Reduction Commitments as of February 1992
                1.4 Billion
                                    700 Million
            Total 33/50 Releases
            & Transfers in 1988
50% Reduction
 Goal By 1995
                                                                       ,304 Million by
                                                                        February 1992

                                                                       '201 Million by
                                                                        July 1991
 Reduction
Commitments
Source: U.S. EPA Office of Toxic Substances, 33/50 Program Progress Report, March 1992.
IV-40

-------
                                                                                        LEAD

Lead

     "The lead problem in the United States can be expressed in a simple statement: Lead is potentially
     toxic wherever it is found, and it is found everywhere."
       — ATSDR, The Nature and Extent of Lead Poisoning in Children in the United States, U.S. Dept. of
         Health and Human Services, 1988.

Environmental Trends
Although lead is found virtually everywhere, national data show sharply declining trends:
Air. EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards reports ambient air lead concentrations in urban
areas decreased 85% since 1981 (Figure 29) while emissions decreased by 87%. Lead emissions to
the air dropped 97% between 1970 and 1990, due mostly to the phaseout of leaded gasoline.
Fish. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program reports lead
concentrations in freshwater fish decreased by about 66% between 1976 and 1986 (Figure 29). USFWS
notes that the decline "has been attributed primarily to reductions in the lead content of motor fuels,"
which suggests that the air is an important pathway through which lead moves into the aquatic environ-
ment. (C.J. Schmitt, Persistent Organochlorine and Bemental Contaminants in Freshwater Fish of the
United States:  The National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program, in R.H. Gray, Ed. Environmental moni-
toring, restoration and assessment: What have we learned? U.S. Dept. of Energy, Twenty-eighth
Hanford Symposium on Health and the Environment. 1990.)
Food. Lead also has declined in food (Figure 29). As measured by the Food and Drug Administration's
Total Diet Study, mean lead intakes by young children declined 80% between 1982 and 1990. Intakes
by 25 to 30 year old women declined 75% during the same period. The voluntary phaseout of leaded
solder in food cans appears to be mostly responsible for the drop, although the decrease in atmospheric
lead which lands on crops may also be a contributing factor.
Drinking water.  There are no reliable data to determine trends in lead in drinking water.  However,
according to an OPPE analysis of lead in drinking water, 42  million people in the U.S. may receive drink-
ing water with lead  levels that exceed 20 ug/l. (USEPA, Reducing lead in drinking water: a benefit analy-
sis, OPPE, 1986.)
People. The Center for  Disease Control (CDC) estimates that average human blood lead levels in the
U.S. have declined from between 15 to 25 ug/dl in 1960 to between 4 to 6 ug/dl in 1990 (Figure 29).  The
second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES II) reported average blood lead lev-
els of 15 and 9 ug/di in 1976 and 1980 respectively.  There is a strong correlation between declining
blood lead levels and declining use of leaded gasoline in the U.S.
Blood lead levels in children, in particular, have declined sharply (Figure 30). This is an especially im-
portant indicator of  the lead problem since "the primary target organ for lead toxicity is the brain or cen-
tral nervous system, especially during early child development. In children and adults, very severe ex-
posure can cause coma, convulsions, and even death. Less severe exposure of children can produce
delayed cognitive development, reduced IQ scores, and impaired hearing - even at exposure levels
once thought to cause no harmful effects. Thus, despite some progress in reducing the average level of
'ead exposure in this country,  it is increasingly apparent that the scope of the childhood lead poisoning
problem has been,  and continues to be, much greater than was previously realized." (ATSDR, The Na-
ture and Extent of Lead Poisoning in Children in the U.S., 1988, p. 1.)
The ATSDR estimates that the population of children with blood lead levels above 15 ug/dl dropped from
50% in 1978 to about 17% in 1984, a trend attributed primarily to the drop in air lead as a  result of the
leaded gasoline phaseout. The population of children with blood lead levels above 25 ug/dl decreased
from 15% in 1978 to 1.5% in 1984. The 1984 numbers are estimates, not precise measurements.  EPA's
OTS estimated that the population  of children with blood lead levels above 10 ug/dl - CDC's recently

                                                                                     IV-41

-------
<   Figure 29. Lead is Declining in Air, Food, Fish and People
              Lead in Air (Ann. Max. Quarterly Average)
              There has been an 85 percent decrease since 1981 in
              maximum quarterly average lead concentrations at 202 urban
              sites.  The decrease has leveled off in recent years.
                	 NAAQS
               1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
           Source: USEPA, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report
            1990, November 1991.


           Mean Lead Intakes, FDA Total Diet Study
           FDA's Market Basket Survey shows declining levels of lead
           in people's diets.
        40 n
                                       25 to 30 year old females

                                       Children, 2 yrs. old
                                                                 Data quality; Air and fish - good; food and
                                                                 blood - moderate; Involves some non-statis-
                                                                 tical sampling (food) and models (blood).
                                                        Lead in Fish Tissue
                                                        U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reports steady declines in
                                                        lead in fish tissue, monitored at 113 stations in major rivers
                                                        and the Great Lakes.
             82     83    84    85    86    87     88   89-90

           Source: U.S. Food and Drug Administration Total Diet Study.
  76-77  78-79  80-81

Source: USFWS, National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program.
                                                     Trends in Average Human Blood Lead Levels in
                                                     the U.S.
                                                     Blood lead levels are declining in people.
                                                  30 T
TJ
CO
CD
^ 20 •

O CD ^
CD CD ^>
CD -"3-
O)
| 10-
<

r> .
H








CDC
Estimate

* • NHANESII

• NHANESII
J CDC
* Estimate
	 1 	 1 	 1 	 1 	
                                                         1960         1970         1980        1990
                                                     Source: Personal Communication with Dr. Susan Binder, CDC.

-------
     Figure 30, Although The Number Of Children With Elevated Blood Lead Has
                 Sharply Declined, Many Children Are Still Affected
•
>r>
*
§
£
•
(C
i
i
o
&
s
i
       Percentage of children under 6 with
       blood lead levels above 15 and 25 ug/dl
       50  -1
       40  -
       30  -
       20  -
       10  -
         15% above
         25 ug/dl
         (NHANES li;
                                15 ug/dl
                                (NHANES II)
                                        >15 ug/dl

                                        >25 ug/dl
                             1.5% above
                             25 ug/dl (CDC
                             estimate)
                    1978

                                                 EPA's estimated percentage
                                                 of children wrth blood lead
                                                 above 10 ug/dl - CDC's
                                                 revised Level of Concern
                                                    •


                                                    •
                                                        10

                                                               15%
                                                          1976-80  1990
                                                     17% above
                                                     15 ug/dl
                                                     (CDC estimate)
                                                    HHSGoal:
                                                    1 % above 15 ug/dl
                                                    0% above 25 ug/dl

ATSDR, The Nature and Extent of Lead Poisonina in Children in the U.S.. 1988
In 1984,17% of children under 6
(3-4 million) had blood lead levels
above 15 ug/dl.

Almost 70% of poor, urban black
children  had levels above 15 ug/dl.

About 1.5% (more than 230,000) had
levels above 25 ug/dl.

10% of poor, urban black children
had levels above 25 ug/dl.

           - ATSDR
                                                                        Data quality: Moderate, Involves some modeling.

                                                                        Relevance to Program: High
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/December 1991

-------
                                                                                        LEAD

revised Level of Concern - dropped from 91% in the late 1970s to about 15% in 1990 (USEPA Strategy
for Reducing Lead Exposures, 1991).
According to ATSDR, exposures to lead are higher for poor, urban black children because of deteriorat-
ing lead paint and the prevalence of lead-contaminated dust and soil in and around older city homes, as
well as other factors.  ATSDR estimates that in 1984, almost 70% of these children had blood lead levels
above 15 ug/dl, and 10% had levels above 25 ug/dl.

EPA's Lead Strategy
EPA's lead strategy was strongly influenced by the ATSDR data cited above, and it reflects the federal
government's recognition that damage to children from lead exposures is the most important risk from a
public policy standpoint.
The EPA strategy contains no quantitative targets for reducing lead risks. However, the Department of
Health and Human Services has established the following targets for year 2000 in their public health
plan, Healthy People 2000.
     Reduce the prevalence of blood lead levels exceeding 15 ug/dl and 25 ug/dl among children aged
     6 months through 5 years to no more than 500,000 and zero, respectively. (Baseline: An estimated
     3 million children had levels exceeding 15 ug/dl, and 234,000 had levels exceeding 25 ug/dl, in
     1984.)
     Among inner-city low-income black children,  reduce the prevalence of blood lead levels exceeding
     15 ug/dl and 25 ug/dl to no more than 75,000 and zero, respectively. (Baseline: An estimated
     234,900 had levels exceeding 15 ug/dl, and 36,700 had levels exceeding 25 ug/dl,  in 1984.)
The goal of EPA's lead strategy is to reduce lead exposures "to the fullest extent practicable," with par-
ticular emphasis on reducing the risk to children. One objective is to significantly  reduce the incidence
of blood lead levels above 10 ug/dl in children while taking into account the associated costs and ben-
efits.  Another, somewhat broader, objective is to significantly reduce unacceptable lead exposures that
are anticipated to pose risks to children, the general public, or the environment.
The strategy focuses on reducing exposures to deteriorating lead paint, lead in dust and soil, and lead in
drinking water, which are the three largest sources of elevated blood lead in children. Action elements
in the strategy include identifying geographic "hot spots," developing and transferring "in-place" lead
abatement technologies, implementing a lead pollution prevention prograrrj and encouraging recycling,
as well as other actions to increase regulation, enforcement, education and research. The research pro-
gram, with other federal agencies, is designed to locate and assess serious lead risks and develop solu-
tions for reducing them. The abatement program addresses risk from exposures to lead-based paint,
urban soil and dust, and lead at Superfund sites. A regulatory and pollution prevention program in-
cludes efforts by various EPA offices to examine ways to reduce lead exposures.

Evaluation of Progress
Clearly, there has been remarkable progress in reducing lead in people and elsewhere in the environ-
ment. Most of this progress is attributable to the phaseout of leaded gasoline and also, in the case of
human blood lead, to eliminating leaded solders in domestically-produced food cans.
Presently, there are no data to assist in examining trends in housing containing leaded paint, dust and
soil, and drinking water, which are the focus of  EPA's strategy and Healthy People 2000. EPA is now
requiring states to report lead in drinking water  data that will serve as a good environmental indicator to
evaluate future progress.  The data will show lead concentrations in the top 10% of samples taken for
each public water supply system. This is a new monitoring requirement that is being undertaken despite
resistance by water suppliers and states. The Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water will prepare a
report on the findings early next year (1993). Follow up reports every year or two  thereafter  will show
post-1992 trends in  "high-end" (i.e., top 10%) concentrations as well as the types of treatment installed
in systems requiring abatement. This information should enable EPA to determine how effective the pro-
gram is in reducing exposures to lead in drinking water.
                                                                                       IV -44

-------
 LEAD

 With regard to dust, soil and paint, EPA does not have adequate national data to assess the extent of the
 problems, to determine whether exposures are due to lead in soil or in paint, or to evaluate the success
 of remedial efforts.  It is therefore difficult to estimate the likelihood that federal strategies will reduce
 children's blood lead levels to the targets set in Healthy People 2000.  The Office of Pollution Prevention
 and Toxics recognizes this difficulty and is now preparing a workplan to develop environmental indica-
 tors to measure progress in lead in soil and lead paint abatement.
 Finally, various national blood monitoring efforts are underway, including NHANES III and CDCs lead
 paint screening study of young children in 17 states.
IV-45

-------
 V.  Office of Air and Radiation
   RELATIVE RISK RANKING

       Unfinished Business Report



       SAB Reducing Risk Report

       Regional Comparative Risk


   PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                              Stratospheric Ozone
 Human Health      Ecological
 Med-High, cancer   NR
 Medium, non-cancer
 NR

 High
                                       1988
                                       Medium
High

High
                  1990
                  High
               Welfare
               Minor
High

NR
   AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION
         Pollution Prevention Legislation
         Core Research
• Clean Air Act
• Economic Incentives
Problem  Definition

The stratospheric ozone layer shields the earth's surface from harmful ultraviolet (UV-B) radiation.
Releases of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrogen dioxide from industrial processes and solid waste
sites could significantly reduce the ozone layer.  Although this is clearly a national and international
problem, regional projects may wish to estimate their region's contribution to the problem, and analyze
the effect of ozone depletion on their region.

Stratospheric Ozone

Goals/Objectives
OAR's goal is to reduce cumulative chlorine concentrations in the stratosphere by 75% over the next 60
years. This would restore the earth's stratospheric ozone layer to its pre-Antarctic hole levels by the
middle of the 21st century.  If no action is taken, over 3.1 million skin cancer deaths and 17.6 million
cases of cataracts in the United States are predicted by the year 2075.

Strategies
The principal strategy for this goal is to reduce chlorine concentrations in the stratosphere to less than
two parts per billion by securing broad international participation in phasing out ozone-depleting chemi-
cals. OAR will expand parties to the Montreal Protocol, use the multi-lateral  fund established in June
1990 to increase the participation of developing countries, implement domestic responsibilities under the
protocol and Clean Air Act Amendments, develop regulations on recycling, labeling, and safe substitutes,
and ensure and promote effective, environmentally-sound substitutes and technologies, domestically and
                                                                                  V-1

-------
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE

overseas. OAR will also be attempting to improve EPA's science and data base by studying the role the
chlorine plays in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer to clarify policy options for stabilizing
and reducing ozone loss. Activities attached to this strategy include ensuring that federal procurement
policy specifies energy efficient, CFC-free technology that is cost-effective, promoting technology trans-
fer among developing and developed countries, identifying forgotten technologies that will maximize
reductions in ozone depleting emissions, removing institutional/regulatory roadblocks to allow full imple-
mentation of CFC alternatives by reforming standards and codes that currently restrict the use of promis-
ing potential alternative refrigerants, foam blowing agents, solvents, and halons. OAR will conduct an
extensive outreach program to the regulated community to successfully implement the programs for safe
alternatives and national recycling.

Environmental Indicator  Results

"Holes" in the stratospheric ozone layer (areas where ozone levels are low enough to allow far more dan-
gerous levels of UV radiation to pass through than previously) are growing in several portions of the
stratosphere. Figure 1 displays the extent of the hole over the Antarctic. In addition to the widely reported
ozone hole over the Antarctic, which is the most serious global stratospheric ozone impact, there have
been important ozone declines in northern hemisphere stratosphere as well.  Figure 2 shows the declines
in concentrations of stratospheric ozone at three latitudes in the northern hemisphere since 1978.
The most precise currently available indicator concerning the United States' contribution to this problem
is the U.S. production of CFCs, which are believed to be the primary cause of stratospheric ozone deple-
tion. Our production of CFC-11 and CFC-12 (Figure 3) peaked in the mid-1970s, and declined steadily
 since. And, if Clean Air Act requirements are met we can project that our total CFC production will de-
 cline to zero by the year 2000 (Figure 4). However, many nations' CFC production has not yet declined
 to the same degree.  Figure 5 shows the CFC emissions of the top ten countries in the world which col-
 lectively emit 70% of the world total. Globally, we would need to achieve significant further reductions in
 total emissions from all countries to meet the goal of restoring the ozone layer to its pre-Antarctic hole
 levels by the mid-21 st century.

 The projected health effects of stratospheric ozone depletion are severe. Estimates of the increases in
 skin cancer projected by models of expected future depletion of stratospheric ozone are shown
 in Figure 6.  Up to 12 million additional skin cancers and 210,000 associated fatalities would be ex-
 pected if the ozone depletion continues unabated. Other significant impacts the Office of Air and Radia-
 tion projects may occur include increases in crop damage, damage to aquatic organisms, increases in
 cataracts, and decreased effectiveness of human immune responses.
  V-2

-------
 Figure 1.  NIMBUS - 7 Satellite Image of Stratospheric "Ozone Hole" Over the Southern Hemisphere
LJ


O
N
O

-------
                                                                         STRATOSPHERIC OZONE


 Figure 2.   Stratospheric Ozone Trends in the Northern Hemisphere
      New Orleans
          Houston
                                                     I	r  —i	1
                                                     Slope - -3.9% / decade
                                                     '•	n  •—i	1	1
                                                     Slope- -4.6% /decade
                                                         ;   ~(I     i
                                                     Slope . -4.7% / decade
       Vancouver


        Winnipeg


          Calgary
                            79   80   81   82  83  84  85  86  87  88  89
Source: Richard Stolarski, Goddard Space Flight Center, 1990.
  Data quality! High.

  Relevance to program: High.
                                                                                     V-4

-------
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
Figure 3.   Historical Production of CFCs in the U.S.
        250
        200
      I 150
     .1 100
         50
          0
                                                       .CFC-11  _^_CFC-12
                    Data quality! High.
                    Relevancato Program: High.
             1960       1965
Source: International Trade Commission, 1986.
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Figure 4.   U.S. Production of CFCs*
             Calculated Based on Clean Air Act Requirements
                     . Actual
                                      CM
                                           CM
                            Data Quality; These are
                            projections, not data; qual-
                            ity not rated here.

                            Relevance to program.; Very
                            relevant.
       O
                 1986 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
                       -90

   •Total CFC production is shown here. Values differ from Figure 3 because additional classes of CFC are included.
Source: EPA Office of Air and Radiation.
V-5

-------
                                                                              STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
Figure 5.   CFC Emissions by Top Ten Countries in 1987

                                            United States (38.8%)
    U.S.S.R. (19.9%)
           Brazil (1.8%)
            China (3.5%)
               India (0.1%)
                   Japan (11.1%)
                                                                  Data quality; Not rated; infor-
                                                                  mation incomplete when re-
                                                                  port went to press.

                                                                  Relevance to program; High.
                                                               France (7.6%)
Indonesia (1.1%)
                                                       United Kingdom (7.9%)
                                            Germany, Fed. Rep. (8.3%)
                         Other countries combined contribute 30%.
Source:  World Resources Institute, 1990.
                                                                                            V-6

-------
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
Figure 6.  Projected Skin Cancer Impacts of Future Depletion
           CO
           CO
           o3
           o
           i
          o
           c
                           Additional Skin Cancers and Fatalities
                               Persons born before 2030
                        Skin Cancers      '        Fatalities

                          Projected U.S. Annual Average = 5,200
                                                               -r 0.5
                                                               -. 0.4
                                                                     21
                                                                     05
CD
CO
O
CO
 Data quality; Projections, not
 data. Quality not rated here.
 Relevance to EPA Program;
 High.
Source: EPA Office of Air and Radiation
                  Other Significant  Impacts

                  UV Levels will exceed natural range
                        • Increase in crop damage
                        • Damage to aquatic organisms
                        • Increase in cataracts
                        • Suppression of human immune response
Source: EPA Office of Air and Radiation
V-7

-------
                                                                    STRATOSPHERIC OZONE

Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator  Results to
Strategies and Objectives

Major CFG Reductions Have Been Accomplished
OAR's strategies generally seem to be appropriate.  Domestically, major CFC reductions have been ac-
complished. An important component of OAR's strategic plan is influencing other nations, particularly
developing nations, to reduce emissions. These nations are currently the source of large CFC emis-
sions, and their emissions are declining less quickly than those of developed nations.  When projections
of future population growth and industrialization are taken into account, CFC emissions from developing
nations will become the overwhelming source of ozone depletion.
In addition to assistance and influence abroad, OAR's strategies include working to reduce U.S. emis-
sions through a combination of regulation and research into safe substitutes.

Issue of Setting Measurable Targets
There is, however, an important problem with the goaf statement of the OAR strategic plan. The current
goal statement does not specify an actual target rate for U.S. CFC reductions.  Therefore, it is not pos-
sible to use available indicator data to determine whether progress is rapid enough to achieve the U.S.
share of reductions necessary to restore the ozone layer by the mid-21 st century. Nor does OAR's stra-
tegic plan specify the rate of global emission reductions that would be expected to achieve the ultimate
goal. The objective of restoring stratospheric ozone to target levels is stated in measurable terms, but
we will not be able to evaluate our progress in terms of this indicator for years to come. Measurable in-
terim indicator targets are needed to evaluate whether we are succeeding (based on our current scien-
tific modeling abilities) in reducing  CFC emissions as fast as necessary.
                                                                                V-8

-------
CLIMATE CHANGE
                                 Climate Change


  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                       Hainan Health      Ecological       Welfare
       Unfinished Business Report          NR, cancer        High            High
       (CO2 and Climate Change)           NR, non-cancer

       SAB Reducing Risk Report           NR               High            High

       Regional Comparative Risk           High-Low          High            NR

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                       1988             1990
                                       Low              Med-Low

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

       • Energy Green Lights        • Clean Air Act
       • Global Climate Change     • Tech. Innov./Trade & Environment
       • Core Research            • Economic Incentive Analysis
Problem  Definition

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (C02) and other greenhouse gases are projected to in-
crease over the next century due to an increase in fossil fuel combustion and a decrease in tropical rain
forests and other C02 sinks. Higher levels of greenhouse gases may raise climatic temperatures glo-
bally, raising the sea level and disrupting weather patterns.

Climate Change

Goals/Objectives

EPA's primary goal is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas (ghg) concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level which would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate. A secondary goal is
to achieve reductions in global net ghg emissions resulting from human activities to levels consistent
with stabilization of atmospheric concentrations.

Strategies

EPA is seeking to achieve these goals by: 1) improving and communicating the understanding of the
environmental and socio-economic consequences of climate change; 2) identifying and demonstrating
low cost technologies and approaches for reducing ghg emissions; 3) identifying and evaluating cost-
effective policies, particularly involving market mechanisms, for reducing ghg emissions and increasing
sinks (e.g., forests): 4) working with other federal agencies, countries, and multilateral organizations to
facilitate the transfer and financing of necessary technologies and approaches to other countries; and 5)
working through a number of domestic and international processes to resolve key scientific and policy
issues and achieve a global climate change convention. Because some anthropologically induced cli-
mate change is likely. EPA is also assessing measures to adapt to climate change.

V-9

-------
                                                                           CLIMATE CHANGE

 Environmental  Indicator  Results

 In the past century, global temperature anomalies from the long-term average temperature have been
 more likely to be above the average than below (Figure 7). Some scientists believe this is associated
 with the last century's increases in gases that lead to so-called "greenhouse warming" of the atmo-
 sphere. Concentrations of one "greenhouse gas," carbon dioxide (CO2), have increased by 15 to 20%
 over the same time period (Figure 8). Concentrations of methane have also increased significantly (Fig-
 ure 9). The increases in C02 are due primarily to man's increased burning of fossil fuels,  and the de-
 struction of forests that would otherwise be removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Increased methane
 emissions are related to a variety of additional activities, particularly agriculture. Chlorofluorocarbons
 (CFCs), already discussed in the stratospheric ozone depletion section of this chapter, also function as
 greenhouse gases.
 However, it is important to note that many scientists feel that current global climate data do not demon-
 strate that significant changes have occurred.  Finally, most scientists agree that even if we were sure
 changes had occurred, we are not yet able to determine whether they were due primarily to man's activi-
 ties, or whether they were part of a longer-term natural fluctuation.

 Conclusion:   Comparison of Indicator Results to
 Strategies and Objectives

 Scientific Controversy

 This problem area is perhaps the single most controversial one being addressed by EPA. There is a
 great deal of scientific dispute over whether significant global climate change is being or will be caused
 by man's activities, let alone about the likely practical implications of such change for ecosystems, agri-
 culture and other factors affecting human quality of life. Given a certain amount of uncertainty in what
 strategies are prudent to pursue, the main driving factor is the balance struck between being conserva-
 tive in avoiding any climate change, and avoiding burdensome and expensive control measures that
 may not be necessary.

 Present Strategy Protective of Economic Productivity
 It is beyond this report to present or interpret the full scope of the scientific debate on the likelihood of
 increases in average global temperature, or on whether increased variability (for example, temperature
fluctuations and severe weather events) is already occurring and is a precursor of global warming. Our
strategies avoid risking possible decreases in economic productivity to prevent environmental impacts
that we do not even know will occur, or if they do occur, will not necessarily be harmful. And we empha-
size strategies that enhance economic productivity while simultaneously limiting greenhouse gas emis-
sions. Nevertheless, EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB), in its Reducing Risk report warned that EPA
 may need to take stronger action to mitigate against the possibility of man-induced global climate
change. The SAB reasoned that, if global warming does occur, the effects could be very injurious, and if
we wait until we know for sure it is occurring, the amount of mitigation possible will be considerably less
than if we start now.  Also, the SAB noted that if global climate change does occur, that could itself cre-
ate serious long-term decreases in economic productivity.

The reason for many scientists' concern is best displayed by the indicator of global CO2 concentrations.
No one knows for certain the implications for weather patterns and global temperatures. The one thing
we do know for sure is that man's burning of fossil fuels and deforestation (among other activities) have
increased the concentration of C02 throughout the global atmosphere so that in 30 years it has in-
creased by about 10%, and the rate of increase has itself increased. To the SAB and many others, the
appropriate balance to strike in the face of uncertainty about the impact of a worldwide change of such
magnitude would be to err on the side of caution.


                                                                                  V-10

-------
  CLIMATE CHANGE
  Figure 7.   Global Temperature Anomalies

     0.6
     0.4  -
     0.2  -
 ir.
•§     o
u
D

eb
U
-a
  -0.2  -
   -0.4  -
   -0.6  -
   -0.8
                                          Hansen & Lebedeff
         1861       1881       1901

 Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1990.
                                        1921       1941       1961



Figure 8.   Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Concentrations
       0
1981
                    Global emissions


                    Mauna Loa concentrations
                                                                               370
                                                                              360
                                                                             -  350
                                                                                   J3

                                                                                    5
                                                                                    c

                                                                               340 I
                                                                               330  I
                                                                                    VI
                                                                             -  320
                                                                             -  310
                                                                                    a
                                                                                    o.
                                                                                    o
                                                                                    c
         1860      1880      1900      1920      1940      1960       1980

              1870      1890      1910      1930      1950      1970      1990
                                                                               300
 Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1990.
 V-11

-------
                                                                               CLIMATE CHANGE
 Figure 9.  Methane Concentrations
           1.7
           1.6
           1.5
   1.6
   1.4

   1.2
   1.0
   0.8
-  0.6
                              Last 2 Centuries
                       1750 1800  1850  1900  1950
                    1978
           1980
1982
1984
                                                          1986
                                                  1988
                                       1990
  Data Quality; Based on graphic, presumed at least moderately good; (data evalua-
  tion materials incomplete when report went to press).

  Relevance to EPA program! High.
 Source:  EPA Office of Air and Radiation Programs.
Desirability of More Programs Such as "Green Lights"

To evaluate EPA's strategies fully, one would need more information than presented here on the potential
costs of reducing fossil fuel combustion by all alternative management scenarios (conventional technolo-
gies, potential alternative technologies, conservation, etc.). Clearly the most desirable scenario would
be one that led to a decrease in C0? and other greenhouse gas emissions without an associated de-
crease in national or global economic productivity. The "Green Lights" program, in which commercial
and other facilities voluntarily adopt energy efficient, cost-effective lighting, is one step in this direction.
But many more changes in energy use would be needed and can be undertaken to make a significant
impact on CO2 emissions.

Value of Long-Range Option Development

Given the unavoidable increases in world population, and  the likelihood of increased economic develop-
ment and energy use per capita in developing countries, just maintaining greenhouse gas emissions at
the status quo would take a lot of energy efficiency programs and/or reforestation programs throughout
the world. Decreasing emissions would require significant restructuring of energy use in many countries.
At a minimum, given that we know the atmosphere's chemistry is already changed significantly, it would
seem appropriate for EPA and other agencies to be formulating coordinated, detailed, long-range strate-
gic options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions at various rates. That way, if the policy decision
were eventually made that such reductions needed to be aggressively pursued, we would lose much
less time studying and developing options, and would be prepared to select and implement appropriate
strategies much more quickly.
                                                                                     V-12

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
                Criteria Air Pollutants & Acid Deposition
  RELATIVE RISK RANKING

      Unfinished Business Report
      (Excludes direct effects of
      VOC emissions)

      SAB Reducing Risk Report
      (Defined as criteria air pollutants)

      Regional Comparative Risk

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)

      From Vehicles
      From Factories
      From Acid rain
Human Health
Low, cancer
High, non-cancer
High

Med-High-High



1988

Medium
Med-Low
Ecological
Low
Welfare
High
Medium
Medium
1990
Medium
Med-High
Med-Low
Medium
  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION
        Energy/Green Lights
        Pollution Prevention Leg.
  Core Research
  Mexican Border
      Economic Incentives Analysis
      Clean Air Act
Problem Definition:  Ozone,  CO and Particulate
Matter

Ozone and carbon monoxide are major air pollutants in many areas, arising from both mobile and sta-
tionary sources. Damage to forests, crops, and human health can be severe.  Note that volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) are critical precursors to ozone formation, but the direct effects of VOCs are in-
cluded in the Air Toxics problem area. Nitrogen oxides (NOX) also contribute to ozone formation. NOX
are also discussed in the following section. To the extent that VOCs result in ozone, those ozone effects
are captured by this problem area.  Both total suspended particulates and fine particulates/PM-10 are
included in this problem area. Major sources include motor vehicles, residential fuel burning, industrial
and commercial processes, and in some cases strip or open pit mining.

Goal/Objectives
OAR will reduce numerous types of human health risks for the millions of Americans in areas where lev-
els of ozone, carbon  monoxide,  paniculate matter (PM-10), sulfur dioxide, lead, or nitrogen dioxide vio-
late the national standards. This will reduce damage to crops and forests as well. OAR wants to
achieve and maintain the National Ambient Air Quality Standards in all nonattainment areas within 20
years.

Strategies

OAR has developed a comprehensive strategy to reduce the emissions from stationary and mobile
sources which contribute to the NAAQS problems. For mobile sources, the strategy incorporates the
reformulated/oxygenated gasoline program that achieves significant reductions in vehicle emissions in
the most severe ozone nonattainment areas and facilitates changes in vehicle technology and fuels.
V-13

-------
                                                        CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

This will include inspection and maintenance programs as well as stage II vapor controls to reduce in-
use vehicle emissions; and the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program which will contribute toward this
effort by including new tighter standards, to achieve reductions in emissions of VOCs, carbon monoxide,
and nitrogen oxides. OAR will implement other planning and control efforts to address both stationary
and mobile sources of ozone precursors, carbon monoxide, PM-1Q, and other criteria pollutants. OAR
will help states develop and implement control measures to reduce emissions from important stationary
source categories and other categories with significant emissions. To enhance capabilities to measure
progress, OAR intends to work with states to replace 40% of the air monitoring networks in the 60 most
serious ozone and carbon monoxide nonattainment areas and augment the monitoring networks in the
30 most serious PM-10 nonattainment areas. OAR will work with states to establish effective and well-
targeted compliance programs.

Additional Comments
OAR will design a reformulated gasoline program by November, 1992, provide guidance for reducing
vehicle emissions in nonattainment areas and reduce the VOC emissions from consumer and commer-
cial products in ozone nonattainment areas.

Problem Definition: SO2 and  NO2

Sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides cause a wide variety of primary and secondary effects.  Primary ef-
fects include health, and welfare impacts. Major secondary effects are acid deposition and visibility
which result from chemical transformation of oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, producing acid rain,  snow,
and fog, as well as dry deposition. Acid deposition alters the chemistry of affected aquatic and terres-
trial ecosystems,  damaging plant and animal life.  Sources are a wide variety of industrial, commercial,
and residential fuel and related combustion sources. This problem area also includes visibility effects
resulting from the long range transport of sulfates.

Strategy
OAR intends to augment current location-specific efforts to reduce S02 emissions within their national
strategy to reduce SO2 and NOX emissions under the acid rain program.  Through the acid rain program,
OAR will minimize or prevent damage to lakes,  streams, trees, and soils in most sensitive areas as well
as visibility and structural materials due to acid deposition through a permanent 10 million ton per year
reduction in SO2 emissions and a 2 million ton per year reduction in NOX emissions. For SO2, market
mechanisms will drive the strategy. OAR will develop a program to distribute emissions allowances to
utilities and to facilitate active trading of these allowances to keep the program's cost to a minimum.
OAR will also promote use of energy efficient technologies as part of compliance plans for utilities.

Problem Definition:  Lead

Air emissions of lead result from many industrial and commercial processes. This problem area includes
both direct exposure to airborne lead and exposure to deposited lead from airborne sources. It does not
include exposure to lead from drinking water delivery systems, or lead found in and around homes and
buildings from leaded paint and other sources.

Strategy
OAR intends to revise and implement the lead NAAQS consistent with the agency lead strategy, al-
though this is a second-level priority in OAR's strategic plan.  The agency lead strategy states that "en-
forcing the current NAAQS would provide a greater incremental public health benefit than any of the
completed NAAQS revisions." The focus of OAR's attention is therefore on expanded monitoring and
enforcement at all of the 29 large lead stationary sources, designation of non-attainment areas,  and STP
revisions in order to achieve attainment by mid-1997.

                                                                                    V-14

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

Environmental Indicator Results

Introduction

Data for the Criteria Air Pollutants section come from OAR's 1990 National Air Quality and Emissions
Trends Report. The air quality trends are based on direct measurements at sites throughout the United
States. The National Air Monitoring Station (NAMS) sites were established through monitoring regula-
tions promulgated in May 1979 to provide data from a national air monitoring network. The NAMS are
located in areas with higher pollutant concentrations and high population exposure. These stations meet
uniform criteria for scale of representativeness, quality assurance, equivalent analytical methodology,
sampling intervals, and instrument selection to assure consistent data reporting among the states. Other
sites operated by the state and local air pollution control agencies, such as the State and Local Air Moni-
toring Stations and Special Purpose Monitors, in general, also meet the same rigid criteria, except that in
addition to being located in the area of highest concentration and high population exposure, they are
located in other areas as well.
Trends are also presented for annual nationwide emissions.  These are estimates of the amount and
kinds of pollution from stationary and mobile sources based upon the best available engineering calcula-
tions for a given time period.
The ambient air quality and emission data were obtained from EPA's Aerometric Information and Re-
trieval System (AIRS). Air quality and emission data are submitted to AIRS by state and local agencies
as well as federal agencies. At present, there are about 500 million air pollution measurements on AIRS.
The vast majority represent the more heavily populated  urban areas of the nation.


Population Estimates for Counties Not Meeting
NAAQS,  1990

Figure 10 provides an estimate of the number of people living in counties in which the primary health
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were not met by measured air quality in 1990. These
estimates use a single-year interpretation of the NAAQS to indicate the current extent of the problem for
each pollutant. The figure demonstrates that ozone was the most pervasive air pollution problem in 1990
for the United States, with an estimated 62.9 million people living in counties which did not meet the
ozone standard. This is slightly lower than the 1989 estimate of 66.7 million people. However, the popu-
lation estimates for the past two years are substantially lower than the 112 million people  living in areas
which did not meet the ozone NAAQS in 1988. This large decrease is likely due in part to meteorological
conditions in 1988, which were more conducive to ozone formation than in recent years (for example, the
hot, dry summer in the eastern U.S.), and to new and ongoing emission control programs.

Carbon monoxide follows in number of  people living in areas with NAAQS exceedance, with 21.7 million
people. Particulate matter (PM-10) exceedances were in areas with 18.8 million people; NO2 ex-
ceedances in areas with 8.5 million people; lead in areas with 5.3 million people and S02 in areas with
1.4 million people. A total of 74 million people lived in counties that did not meet at least  one air quality
standard during 1990 (out of a total 1987 population of 243 million).

These population estimates are intended to provide a relative measure of the extent of the problem for
each pollutant. The limitations of this indicator should be recognized. An individual living in a county
that violates an air quality standard may not actually be  exposed to unhealthy air. For example, if CO
violations were confined to a traffic-congested center city location during evening rush hours in the win-
ter, it is possible that an individual may never be in that area, or may be there only at other times of
the day or during other seasons. However, it is worth noting that ozone, which appears to be
the most pervasive pollution problem  by this measure, is also the pollutant most likely to have


V-1S

-------
Figure 10. People in Counties with 1990 Air Quality Above Primary National Ambient
            Air Quality Standards
I

0)
         S02  • 1.4
         Lead
        PM-10
   o
   O.
       Ozone
   Any NAAQS
             0
  Note: Based on 1987 county population.
Source: EPA/OAR.
                                        20
     40

Millions of People
60
                                                                                                   74.4
80
                                                                                                                  o
s
1
1
                                                                                                                  o
                                                                                                                  D
                                                                                                                  m
                                                                                                                  TO
                                                                                                                  8
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch, 1992

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

fairly uniform concentrations throughout an area. The estimate of 63 million people only considers
data from the single year, 1990, and only considers counties with ozone monitoring data. In contrast,
ozone nonattainment areas are typically based upon three years of data to ensure a broader representa-
tion of possible meteorological conditions.  There were only 812 ozone monitors reporting in 1990.
These monitors were located in 467 counties, which clearly falls far short of the 3,186 counties in the U.S.
(We monitor in 27% of the counties for at least one pollutant; these counties contain 75% of the population.)

TVends in Ozone

The O3 NAAQS is defined in terms of the daily maximum, that is, the highest hourly average for the day,
and it specifies that the expected number of days per year with values greater than 0.12 ppm should not
be greater than one.
The ten-year trend in ozone (Figure 11) is displayed using boxplots which show the inter-site variability of
the annual second highest daily maximum concentrations for the 471 site database. The 1990 compos-
ite average  is 10% lower than the 1981 average. These 1990 values are the lowest composite averages
of the past ten years. The 1990 composite average is significantly less than the 1988 composite mean,
which is the second highest average (1983 was the highest) during this period.  The distribution of sec-
ond daily maximum 1-hour concentrations in 1990 is similar to that recorded in 1989 and 1986. The rela-
tively high ozone concentrations in both 1983 and 1988 are likely attributed in part to hot, dry, stagnant
conditions in some areas of the country that were more conducive to ozone formation than other years.
Peak ozone concentrations typically occur during hot, dry, stagnant summertime conditions (high tem-
perature and strong solar insolation).
The interpretation of recent ozone trends is difficult due to the confounding factors of meteorology and
emission changes. Just as the increase in 1988 is attributed in part to  meteorological conditions, the
1989 decrease is likely due, in part, to meteorological conditions being less favorable for ozone forma-
tion in 1989 than in 1988. This pattern was followed by summer 1990 which nationally was warmer and
drier than the long-term climatological means. Also, precursor emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile
organic compound emissions from highway vehicles have decreased in urban areas.  The volatility of
gasoline was reduced by new regulations which lowered national average summertime Reid Vapor Pres-
sure (RVP) in regular unleaded  gasoline.

Areas Designated Nonattainment for Ozone
The ozone nonattainment designation  is the result of a formal administrative process but, for indicator
purposes, may be viewed as simply indicating areas that do not meet the ozone air quality standard.
The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 further classify ozone nonattainment areas based upon
the magnitude of the problem.  Depending on the particular nonattainment classification, the area must
adopt, at a minimum, certain air pollution reduction measures. The classification of an area also deter-
mines when the area must reach attainment.
Rgure 12 depicts the nonattainment areas for ozone and also indicates the CAAA classifications which
are based upon the design value, a concentration indicating the magnitude of the problem. There are
98 areas designated nonattainment for ozone. Unclassified areas and transitional ozone areas are not
included in  this total and are not displayed on the map.  States containing nonattainment areas are high-
lighted in yellow.
V-17

-------
                                                     CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
Figure 11 a.  Ozone Trend, 1981 - 1990 (Annual 2nd Daily Max Hour)
            CONCENTRATION, PPM
      0.30
      0.25 -

      0.20

      0.15

      0.10

      0.05 -
      0.00
                                                         471 SITES
                                                 NAAQS
                1981 1982  1983 1984 1985  1986 1987  1988  1989 1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1990.
Figure lib. VOC Emissions,  106Tons/Year
                                  Data quality; Good.
                                  Relevance to program; Good.
        30

        25 -

        20 -
SOURCE CATEGORY
m TRANSPORTATION
•I FUEL COMBUSTION
888 INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
• SOLID WASTE & MISC
          1981   1982   1983   1984  1985   1986   1987   1988   1989   1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1990.
                                                       Data quality; Moderate, involves
                                                       estimates.
                                                       Relevance to proarai  : Good.
                                                                               V-1B

-------
                   Figure 12.  Areas Designated In Nonattainment For Ozone
Note:  Unclassified and transitional areas are  not shown.
                                                           Extreme fc Severe
                                                           Serious
                                                           Moderate
                                                           Marginal & SuBmarginai

-------
                                                     CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

 NAAQS Attainment:  Carbon Monoxide (CO)

 Ambient Concentrations
   1981 - 90:  Twenty-nine percent decrease (8-hour second high at 301 sites). 87% decrease (8-
               hour exceedances at 301 sites).
   1989 - 90:  Eight percent decrease (8-hou r secon d high at 359 sites).

 Emissions
   1981-90:  Twenty-two percent  decrease.
   1989 - 90:  Less than 1 % decrease.

 Trends
 Carbon monoxide emissions (Figure 13) decreased 41% since 1970. Progress continued through the
 1980s with 29% improvement in the air quality levels and a 22% reduction in total emissions. This
 progress occurred despite continued growth in miles of travel in the United States. Transportation
 sources account for approximately two-thirds of the nation's CO emissions. Emissions from highway
 vehicles decreased 37% during the 1981 to 1990 period, despite a 37% increase in vehicle miles of
 travel. Estimated nationwide CO emissions decreased less than 1 % between 1989 and 1990, with forest
 fire activity in 1990 offsetting the 7% decrease in CO emissions from highway vehicles.
 Status

 In November 1991, EPA designated 42 areas as nonattainment for CO.


 NAAQS Attainment:  Particulate  Matter

 Ambient  Concentrations

 Total Suspended Particulates (TSP) and PM-10.
  1982 - 90*: Three percent decrease in TSP concentrations (based on geometric mean at 1265
              sites). "1981 data affected by a change in filters.
  1989 - 90:  Three percent decrease in TSP concentrations (based on geometric mean at 734
              sites). Eight percent decrease in TSP concentrations (based dSri arithmetic mean at
              339 sites).

 Emissions: Total Particulates (TP) and PM-10
  1981 - 90:  Six percent decrease in TP. (Note: Nine-year 1982 to 1990 change was 6% increase.)
  1989 - 90:  Four percent increase in TP and 5%  increase in PM-10.

 Trends
TP emissions (Figure 14) from historically inventoried sources have been reduced 59% since 1970. Dur-
ing the 1980s, TSP air quality levels improved 3%.  In 1987, EPA replaced the earlier TSP standard with
a PM-1 o standard. PM-10 focuses on the smaller particles likely to be responsible for adverse health
effects because of their ability to reach the lower regions of the respiratory tract.) Ambient monitoring
networks have recently been revised to measure PM-10 rather than TSP. Although PM-10 trends data
are limited, ambient levels decreased 11% between 1988 and 1990. The PM-10 portion of TP emissions
is estimated to have increased seven percent since 1985 due to  increases from transportation sources
and forest fires. Nationally, fugitive sources provide six to eight times more tonnage of PM-10 emissions
than do historically inventoried sources.


                                               US. EPA  Headquarters Litr^y       y  „
                                                     Mail code 3201
                                               1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
                                                 Wnohinntnn DC 20460

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
Figure 13a.  Carbon Monoxide Trend, 1981 - 1990 (Annual 2nd Max 8-hour
              Non-overlapping Mean)
   20
       CONCENTRATION, PPM
   15 -
   10 -
    5 -
                                                  301 SITES
                                      Data quality: Good.
                                      Relevance to EPA Program: Good.
I.  T   I   I
          1981 1982  1983 1984  1985  1986 1987  1988 1989 1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1990.
Figure 13b.  Carbon Monoxide Emissions, 106 Metric Tons/Year
      120
      100 -

       80 -

       60 -

       40 -
          SOURCE CATEGORY
            TRANSPORTATION
          • FUEL
            COMBUSTION
$8 INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
• SOLID WASTE & MISC
         1981   1982   1983  1984   1985   1986   1987   1988  1989   1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1990.
                                                     Data quality; Moderate, involves
                                                     estimates.
                                                     Relevance to proarar i Good.
V-21

-------
                                                  CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
Figure 14a.  Total Suspended Particulate Trend, 1981 - 1990 (Annual
              Geometric Mean)
              CONCENTRATION, UG/M3
1U
100 •
90 -
80 -
70 -
60 -
50 -
40 •
30 •
20 -
10 -









I
X,

F





x




1265 SITES

•

V
f











I

I


1981 1982 1983








-* 	 L
11





J J
M rn



il

f \




Former NAAQS
n

r f














1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1990.
Data qualify;
Relevance to
Good.
EPApn

tgxajQi Good.
Figure 14b.  Total Suspended Particulate Emissions, 10* Metric Tons/Year
         15
         10 -
                        SOURCE CATEGORY

                          TRANSPORTATION

                        •I FUEL
                          COMBUSTION
88S INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

• SOLID WASTE & MISC
           1981   1982   1983  1984   1985  1986   1987   1988  1989   1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report. 1990.
                                                    Data quality! Moderate, Involves
                                                    estimates.
                                                    Relevance to oroarai \: Good.
                                                                           V-22

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

Status
in October 1991, EPA designated 70 areas as nonattainment for PM-10. National average TSP levels in
1990 were the lowest of the past decade. Comparing 1989 and 1990, most of the country experienced
an increase in precipitation and a decrease in TSP and PM-10.


NAAQS  Attainment:  Sulfur  Dioxide (SO2)

Ambient Concentrations
  1981 - 90:   Twenty-four percent decrease (arithmetic mean at 457 sites). Thirty percent decrease
               (24-hour second high at 452 sites). Eighty-seven percent decrease (24-hour ex-
               ceedances at 452 sites).
  1989 - 90:   Seven percent decrease (arithmetic mean at 552 sites).

Emissions:   SOX

  1981 - 90:   Six percent decrease.
  1989 - 90:   Two percent decrease.

Trends
SOX emissions (Figure 15) decreased 25% since 1970. During the 1980s, emissions improved six per-
cent while average air quality improved by 24%. This difference occurs because of historical ambient
monitoring networks were population-oriented while the major emission sources tend to be in less popu-
lated areas.  The exceedance trend is dominated by source-oriented sites.  The 1981 to 1990 decrease
in emissions reflects reductions at coal-fired power plants. The 1989 to 1990 emissions increase is due
to increases from fuel combustion.

Status
Almost all monitors in U.S. urban areas meet EPA's ambient S02 standards. Dispersion models are com-
monly used to assess ambient SO2 problems around point sources because it is frequently impractical
to operate enough monitors to provide a complete air quality assessment. Currently, there are 50 areas
designated nonattainment for S02. Current concerns focus on major emitters, total atmospheric load-
ings and the possible need for shorter-term (i.e., 1-hour) standards. Seventy percent of all national SOX
emissions are generated by electrical utilities (92% of which come from coal fired power plants).
 V-23

-------
                                                       CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
 Figure 15a.  Sulfur Dioxide Trend, 1981 - 1990 (Annual Arithmetic Mean)
             CONCENTRATION, PPM
      0.040
      0.035 -


      0.030


      0.025 -


      0.020 -


      0.015 -


      0.010 -


      0.005 -
      0.000
                                                          457 SITES
• NAAQS —
                1981  1982  1983 1984  1985 1986 1987  1988 1989  1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report. 1990.
                                                       Data quality! Good.

                                                       Relevance to EPA program; Good.
Figure 15b.  Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 106 Metric Tons/Year
        30
                SOURCE CATEGORY

                 TRANSPORTATION        H FUEL COMBUSTION
                                                         INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
        20
        10
          1981   1982   1983   1984   1985   1986   1987   1988   1989  1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report. 1990.
                                                        Data quality! Moderate; involves
                                                        estimates.

                                                        Relevance to program! Good.
                                                                                V- 24

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

NAAQS Attainments  Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)

Ambient Concentrations
  1981  - 90:   Eight percent decrease (annual mean at 166 sites).
  1989 - 90:   Six percent decrease (annual mean at 211 sites).

Emissions:   NOX
  1981  - 90:   Six percent decrease.
  1989 - 90:   One percent decrease.

Trends
Nitrogen oxide emissions (Figure 16) increased six percent since 1970 but both emissions (decreased
six percent) and nitrogen dioxide air quality (decreased eight percent) showed improvement during the
1980s. The national trend in annual mean N02 concentrations was flat for most of the 1980s, however,
annual mean NO2 levels have declined during the past two years.  The two primary source categories of
nitrogen oxide emissions, and their contribution in 1990, are fuel combustion (57%) and transportation
(38%). The transportation category has decreased 24% while fuel combustion emissions are estimated
to have increased by 12%.

Status
In November 1991, EPA designated only one area as nonattainment for NO2.  Los Angeles, CA, which
reported an annual mean of 0.056 ppm in 1990, is the only urban area that has recorded violations of the
annual NO2 NAAQS of 0.053 ppm during the past 10 years.

NAAQS Attainment:  Lead

Ambient Concentrations
  1981  - 90:   Eighty-five percent decrease (maximum quarterly average at 202 sites).
  1989 - 90:   Twelve percent decrease (maximum quarterly average at 229 sites).
Emissions
  1981  - 90:   Eighty-seven percent decrease in total lead emissions (95% decrease in lead emis-
               sions from transportation sources).
  1989 - 90:   One percent decrease in total lead emissions source.
Trends

Total lead emissions (Figure 17) have dropped 97% since 1970 due principally to reductions in ambient
lead levels from automotive sources. Ambient lead (Pb) concentrations in urban areas throughout the
country have decreased 85% since 1981 while emissions decreased by 87%. The drop in Pb consumption
and subsequent Pb emissions was brought about by the increased use of unleaded gasoline in catalyst-
equipped cars (89% of the total gasoline market in 1990) and the reduced Pb content in leaded gasoline.

Status

In 1990, the reduction of exposure to lead became a top priority objective for the agency. Among other
things, EPA identified 29 stationary sources with potential problems. An assessment of the sources'
compliance status, ambient monitoring availability and state implementation plan (SIP) adequacy was
completed. The CAA Amendments, for the first time, authorize EPA to designate areas attainment,
nonattainment or unclassifiable for the lead NAAQS.  As such, EPA has designated as nonattainment 12
areas which have recently recorded violations of the lead NAAQS.

V-25

-------
                           CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
Figure 16a. Nitrogen Dioxide Trend, 1981 - 1990 (Annual Arithmetic
       Mean)
      CONCENTRATION. PPM
   0.07
   0.06 -


   0.05

   0.04


   0.03 -

   0.02


   0.01 -
   0.00
                              166 SITES
nnnnrr
 X-
            -H-
 I If  M  M  U ₯
        1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1990.
                   Data quality; Good.
                            Relevance to EPA program; Good.
Figure 16b. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, 106 Metric Tons/Year
    30
    25 -


    20 -
    SOURCE CATEGORY

     TRANSPORTATION

    •I FUEL COMBUSTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

SOLID WASTE & MISC.
     1981  1982 1983  1984 1985  1986 1987  1988 1989  1989
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report. 1990.
                            Data quality! Moderate; involves
                            estimates.
                            Relevance to program; Good.
                                         V-26

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION


Figure 17a.   Lead Trend, 1981 - 1990 (Max Quarterly Mean)


        CONCENTRATION, UG/M3
    .5
    1  -
                                                    202 SITES
                                         NAAQS —
                                  Data quality: Good.

                                  Relevance to EPA Program: Good.
                  ₯   ₯
           1981 1982  1983 1984  1985 1986  1987  1988 1989  1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report. 1990.
Figure 17b.  Lead Emissions, 103 Metric Tons/Year
    80
    60 i
    40 -
    20 -
SOURCE CATEGORY

  TRANSPORTATION

• FUEL
  COMBUSTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

SOLID WASTE
                            Data quality: Moderate, involves estimates.
                            Relevance to Program: Good.
      1981   1982   1983   1984   1985  1986   1987   1988   1989   1990
Source: OAR, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1990.


V-27

-------
                                                        CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

Acid Deposition  Monitoring

Sulfur compounds are deposited to the earth's surface either in wet, dry, or droplet (clouds and fog)
form.  Available monitoring and modeling allows estimates of annual total deposition that indicate that of
all anthropogenic sulfur emissions in the U.S. and Canada, 30% is deposited on the contiguous states
and provinces as wet deposition, 27% is deposited as dry deposition, and four percent as droplet depo-
sition. The remaining 39% is exported to the Atlantic Ocean.
As shown in Figure 18 the highest sulfate wet deposition levels, although they vary, are typically in most
of southern Ontario and southern Michigan, most of Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey,
and West Virginia; and portions of Maryland, Delaware, and Connecticut. In this area (about 1/5 of the
landmass in eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada), monitored annual values of wet sulfate deposition
from 1985 to 1987 range from 25 kilograms/hectare (kg/ha) to a maximum of 43 kg/ha.
The number of dry measurement stations is still limited; therefore, much less is known about spatial  vari-
ability in dry deposition of sulfur species than is known about wet. So far, data indicate that from 1984
through  1987 annual dry deposition ranged from a high of 14 kg/ha of total sulfur (at a station in Illinois)
to 0.6  kg/ha (station in Colorado).


Figure 18. The  1985 - 1987 Spatial Patterns of Annual Sulfate Wet
             Deposition
                                                                      Win » 1
 Data Quality; Moderate; sampling design may not
 support high precision in gradient mapping.

 Relevance to program! High; effects of concern are
 ambient and ecological.
Source: NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment Report.
                                                                                   V-28

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
Surface Water Acidification
The National Surface Water Survey (NSWS) provided estimates of the number of acidified surface waters
(Figure 19). On a national level, 4% of lakes and 8% of streams were found to be chronically acidic (ANC
< 0).  It was further determined that in 75% of acidic lakes and 50% of acidic streams acidification can be
attributed to acid deposition.
The percent of acidic systems in selected NSWS regions is:
  Adirondacks Lakes- 14%
  Mid-Atlantic Highland Streams - 8%
  Mid-Atlantic Highland Lakes - 6%
  New England - 4%
These numbers are expected to decrease with the emissions reduction required in the acid rain provi-
sions of the CAA to:
  Adirondacks Lakes - 3%
  Mid-Atlantic Highland Streams - 0%
  Mid-Atlantic Highland Lakes - 0%
  New England - 0%
Note that the sampled lake population is comprised of lakes with surface areas  > 4 hectares (ha) (10
acres) in the East, or > 1 ha in the West, and < 2,000 ha. There are probably from one to four times as
many small lakes (1 to 4 ha) as there are lakes with surface areas > than 4 ha. Small tributaries were also
not  sampled in this survey.
Figure 19. Percentage of Acidic Surface Waters in NSWS Regions
                                                                                  England
                                                                               Mid-Atlantic
                                                                              Coastal Plain
  Percent ANC i, 0 »aq/l
  EH
     5%-10%
     >20%
Note: ANC is the ability of a body of water to neutralize acid. Surface waters with
     an ANC £ 0 are defined as acidic, while those with ANC < 50 are extremely
     sensitive to acidification.
Source: NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment Report.
Data quality! Good.
Relevance to program; High.
V-29

-------
                                                        CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

Visibility Impacts of Sulfate Emissions

Average visual range (Figure 20) in eastern rural areas is about 20 - 35 km. Visual range in rural moun-
tain/desert areas of the Southwest averages 130-190 km. Sulfates in aerosols are the dominant source
of light extinction in the East although differences in humidity also factor in. Observed differences be-
tween natural background visibility in the Eastern U.S. and current levels are easily perceivable.
The emissions reduction required in the acid rain provisions of the CAA is expected to significantly im-
prove visibility. An annual average 40% decrease in sulfates is projected to cause a 30% increase in
annual average visual range.


Figure 20.  Estimated  Standard Median Visual Range (km) for Rural Areas
              of the United States
                                                                      I!)
 Data quality;  Moderate (In-
 volves estimates).

 Relevance to program; High.
Note:  Data are reported in kilometers for suburban/nonurban areas. Values are based on airport median visual ranges
      factored by 13 to account for differences in detection thresholds in estimating standard visual range. Data in-
      cluded for all days (all weather conditions).
      Data are for 1974 to 1976, but recent studies indicate that current conditions are approximately the same (or per-
      haps slightly improved) compared with those shown here.

Source: NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment Report.
                                                                                    V-3O

-------
CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION
Terrestrial  Impacts of Acid Deposition

Acidic cloudwater at high elevations, combined with natural stresses on Northeastern mountains, in-
creases susceptibility of red spruce to winter injury. To date, forest data is still insufficient to further
quantify forest effects attributable to acid rain.
Surface soil acidification and cation depletion have occurred in some forest soils. Effects of these
changes in soil chemistry and the relationship to acidic deposition on forest productivity are still undeter-
mined.
With the emissions reductions required in the acid rain provisions of the CAA, the occurrence of winter in-
jury is likely to be reduced and the condition of foliage improved for high elevation red spruce (Figure 21).

Figure 21.  Types and Frequency of Response of Plant Tissues to
              Increasing Acidity
   100
    75 --
    50 --
    25 --
                  Events within pH Range (percent)
                     = Rain
                     = Cloudwater
                  ±  = Direction of Effect
                               Mean pH of Precipitation Events
4.7-4.3
Inputs of S.N.
nutrients.














4.3-4.0
Increased
cation leaching
from foliage,
soils; increased
S.N. nutrient
inputs.










4.0-3.8
increased
cation leaching
from foliage;
soils; increased
S.N. nutrient
inputs.










3.8 - 3.4
Some visible
injury possible;
increased
cation leaching
from foliage,
soils.










3.4 - 3.0
visible injury
likely; loss of
photosynthetic
tissue; effects
on pollen
germination;
increased
leaching of
cations from
foliage, soils;
cuticle damage;
winter injury.




<3.0
Death of
sensitive
tissues and
visible injury
prevalent; loss
of photo-
synthetic
tissue; effects
on pollen
germination;
increased
leaching of
cations from
foliage, soils;
cuticle damage;
winter injury.
 Data quality; Useful only for general
 Inferences of possible effects.

 Relevance to program: Moderate.
Source: NAPAP 1990 Integrated Assessment Report.
Note: Some crop species may be relatively more sensitive then indi-
     cated, whereas some forest species may be more tolerant of
     acidity than suggested by these general guidelines. The rela-
     tive frequency of event distributions for both rain and cloud
     events is intended not to represent any particular site, but rather
     a more generalized distribution of rain or cloud events across
     the eastern United States.
V-31

-------
                                                       CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS & ACID DEPOSITION

 Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to
 Strategies and Objectives

 Ozone, CO and Particulate Matter

 OAR's strategies for ozone, carbon monoxide and particulates are well matched to the status and trends
 in these problems as revealed by the environmental indicators. The OAR strategic plans clearly identify
 the current failure of many urban areas to attain the ozone standard as a top priority problem, and fail-
 ures to meet carbon monoxide (CO) and paniculate standards as very high priorities as well. A coordi-
 nated set of strategies to bring ozone, CO and particulate levels down includes multiple ways to deal
 with mobile sources, and increases stringency in controlling fixed sources. Finally, OAR plans to im-
 prove the precision and accuracy of available environmental indicators by augmenting monitoring net-
 works in the most serious nonattainment areas.
 OAR has not selected any indicators of ultimate health effects of criteria pollutants for national indicator
 reporting purposes. This seems reasonable, given the uncertainties of extrapolating from epidemiologi-
 cal  data to assess the contributions of various environmental stresses on disease incidence. However,
 the NAAQS program does use such data for regulatory impact analyses, and incorporated it in planning
 for the new legislation in 1991. NAAQS is perhaps farther along in quantifying the health benefits of their
 past and current strategies than any other program.

 SO2 and NO2: NAAQS and Acid Deposition Strategies

 OAR's strategies for SO2 and N02 combine measures intended to protect human health by decreasing
 ambient concentrations in urban areas and moving toward the new goals for reducing acid deposition
 and its associated risk to ecosystems. For the urban air component, good  attainment levels for reduc-
 tion of SOX and NOX emissions reflect the success of NAAQS's strategies of the past 15 years.  To com-
 bat the continuing acid deposition problem, OAR has set measurable emissions reduction goals for
 these pollutants, and developed a clearly planned strategy to achieve the reductions using market
 mechanisms.

 OAR, together with ORD, has an appropriate set of environmental indicators for these problems, com-
 prising the urban NAAQS monitoring, together with the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program
 monitoring of acidity in surface water and precipitation/deposition. Ultimate effects indicators (ecologi-
 cal impacts) are not yet available, but EMAP intends to focus on acid depositiottjmpacts, so that na-
 tional indicators of trends in acid deposition effects will become available in timelf EMAP is fully imple-
 mented.
 Lead

The NAAQS strategy for lead has been a major environmental success story, since the removal of
 leaded gasoline from most uses has resulted in tremendous decreases in lead emissions and ambient
air concentrations.  Major declines in the ultimate effects indicator for lead - blood lead levels in people -
reflect the success of controlling this source of lead.  Blood lead level data, and strategies being
planned to address the continuing serious problems of lead contamination and human effects, are pre-
sented in the section of this report on EPA's cross-media lead strategy.
                                                                                  V-32

-------
AIR TOXICS
                                      Air Toxics

  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                        Human. Health      Ecological       Welfare
       Unfinished Business Report           High, cancer       Medium         Low
                                        High, non-cancer

       SAB Reducing Risk Report           High              Medium         Medium
       (ambient air pollutants)

       Regional Comparative Risk           Med-High - Medium Low            NR

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                        1988              1990
       From Vehicles                                       Medium         Medium
       From Factories                     Medium           Med-High
       From Acid Rain                     Med-Low          Med-Low

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

       • 33/50 Project              • Multimedia Enforcement       • Clean Air Act
       • Indian Programs           • Lead Strategy               • Core Research
       • Refinery Cluster            • Economic Incentives
Problem Definition

This problem area covers outdoor exposure to airborne hazardous air pollutants from routine or continu-
ous emissions from point and non-point sources. Pollutants include asbestos, various toxic metals (e.g.,
chromium, beryllium,), organic gases (benzene, chlorinated solvents), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
(PAHs, such as benzo (a)pyrene, primarily in particulate form), gasoline vapors, incomplete combustion
products, airborne pathogens, cooling towers, and a variety of other volatile organic chemicals and
toxics. The problem area covers exposure through both inhalation and air deposition of these pollutants
to land areas. Runoff of deposited pollutants to surface waters is addressed in Non-point Sources.  Ma-
jor sources include large industrial facilities, motor vehicles, chemical plants, commercial solvent users,
and combustion sources. This category excludes, to the extent possible, risks from pesticides, airborne
lead, radioactive substances, chlorofluorocarbons, emissions from waste treatment, storage and dis-
posal facilities, storage tanks and indoor air toxicants.

Air Toxics

Goal/Objectives

Reduce the estimated 1,700 to 2,700 excess annual cancer deaths attributed to non-occupational expo-
sure to air toxics and reduce other non-cancer effects such as birth defects, sterility, central nervous
systems damage, mutations, organ toxicity, and irritation of eyes, nose, throat, and skin.

Strategies
By 1997, OAR will develop and implement technology-based emission controls, through maximum
achievable control technology (MACT) standards, to regulate at least the first 50% of major categories of
stationary sources of air toxics. OAR will promote early voluntary reductions from stationary sources of

V-33

-------
                                                                               AIR TOXICS

air toxics by implementing the 90% reduction authorities.  OAR will also reduce toxics from mobile
sources through regulation and the clean fuels program. The strategy also includes work with the Office
of Research and Development and other Agency offices to improve knowledge of the sources and risks
associated with air toxics. Identify significant sources of air toxics and effective way to measure emis-
sions. OAR will also coordinate with the Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response to implement
the Agency strategy for prevention of accidental releases of air toxics. Sample activities to carry out this
strategy include:  regulating additional categories of sources of radionuclide emissions, focusing
Agency compliance efforts on national emission standards for hazardous air pollutants (NESHAPS) for
benzene, asbestos, and radionuclides, and securing prescribed emission reductions. OAR will continue
assessment of deposition of air toxics in the Great Lakes and evaluate the impact on humans and the
environment, and pursue a variety of other market mechanisms, education and outreach strategies, en-
forcement, pollution prevention, and international cooperation strategies.


Environmental Indicator  Results

CAA Title III Emissions
Data for Figure 22 come from the Toxic Chemical Release Inventory (TRI) system, reporting years 1988
and 1989.  Special retrievals were made for OAR (to be used in its Section 105 Allocation Report) and
include only air releases and unique facilities subject to Clean Air Act Title III requirements.
TRI data are not considered very precise, as they are self-reported and include estimated data. Data
audits are being conducted now, and it is expected that the quality control on the data, and conse-
quently the precision and accuracy, will increase over the next several reporting years.

Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results  to
Strategies and Objectives

OAR will use data from EPA's Toxic Release Inventory (TRi) as an indicator of progress reducing air tox-
ics emissions. These data reflect monitored emissions, or estimates of emissions developed according
to guidelines developed by the Society of Chemical Manufacturers, from all manufacturing facilities in a
broad set of Standard Industrial Classifications ("SIC" categories.) However, the data do not reflect
emissions from a number of categories of small fixed sources and other non-manufacturing facilities.
They also do not include various public facilities such as sewage treatment plants, nor federal facilities,
except those operated by private contractors.  And they do not include mobile source emissions.
TRI data are not considered very precise, as they are self-reported and include estimated data. Data
audits are being conducted now, and it is expected that the quality control on the data, and conse-
quently the precision and accuracy, will increase over the next several reporting years.
                                                                                 V-34

-------
AIR TOXICS
Figure 22. Clean Air Act Title III (Toxic Release Inventory)
            Emissions - 1988 and 1989
       600  T
4567

    EPA Region

 11988          11989
                                                                             10
Source: Office of Air and Radiation, Final Results of FY 1992 Section 105 Allocation, 1991.
V-35

-------
                                                                           INDOOR RADON
                                  Indoor Radon



  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                      Human Health      Ecological      Welfare
      Unfinished Business Report          High, cancer       NR            Minor
                                      High, non-cancer

      SAB Reducing Risk Report           High              NR            NR

      Regional Comparative Risk           High              Low           NR

  PUBLIC CONCERN (ROPER)
                                      1988             1S9Q
                                      Low              Low



  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

      • Indoor Air
Problem Definition

Radon is a radioactive gas produced by the natural decay of uranium found in nearly all soil types. Ra-
don typically migrates into buildings (including homes, schools and other large buildings) through
cracks or other openings in the foundation. In some cases, radon can also enter the home through well
water. Radon is trapped inside buildings, which causes the buildup of elevated levels. When inhaled,
radon decay products can cause lung cancer.  After smoking, radon is the second leading cause of
lung cancer in the United States.

Indoor Radon

Goals/Objectives
Reduce public health risks by preventing exposure in new structures and by reducing exposure to el-
evated radon levels in homes, schools, and other large buildings.

Strategies
Under authority of the Indoor Radon Abatement Act of 1988 (IRAA) the Office of Air and Radiation's
(OAR) radon program is implementing a non-regulatory approach to risk reduction. In brief, the program
supports its risk reduction goal by:
1 -  targeting the whole population and also by identifying and targeting the highest risk geographic ar-
   eas and populations and establishing cost-effective risk reduction approaches;
2.  developing cooperative efforts with nationally recognized organizations and state and local partners
   to mobilize communities and individuals at risk from radon;
3.  enhancing efforts to target resources on high risk geographic areas and populations; sustaining ac-
   tivities to encourage comprehensive national radon testing and action; and
                                                                                 V-36

-------
INDOOR RADON

4.  evaluating the radon measurement and mitigation industries to maintain consumer confidence in
    testing and mitigating.
This general strategy is developed more fully in the following program elements:
Problem Assessment:  Continue to support health research to refine radon risk estimates.  Identify
areas of greatest potential risk from radon through: geographic mapping, state surveys, and national
radon residential, school and workplace surveys. Develop and evaluate techniques for pinpointing ar-
eas with homes at highest potential risk. Data from these sources will be made available to states, coun-
ties and Radon Program partners through a national database (Figure 23).
Partnership and Capability Development: Empower states, through IBM grants, and other na-
tional organizations, through cooperative agreements, to inform the public about the risks of radon and
the need for public action, and to provide assistance for assessing and reducing those risks.
Work with organizations that share mutual goals with EPA, such as protecting the public health and
stimulating public action through media and grass roots efforts. Priority is given to working with the most
prominent, influential recognized leaders in each of the key areas of: public health protection, media
outreach, consumer protection, and state and local government action. These organizations have cred-
ibility with certain target audiences, including health care professionals, public health  officials, media
public service directors, journalists, and state and local governments.  As a result they can conduct lo-
calized outreach and capability development efforts, promote radon activities, and empower outside
spokespersons and community leaders to stimulate public action on radon (Figure 24). EPA is focusing
its partnership efforts on the nation's highest risk areas. Partners will continue to pursue diverse strate-
gies for radon risk reduction tailored to the needs and experience of these areas.
Risk-Based Targeting and Creating Opportunities: Capitalize on opportunities for risk reduc-
tion through the construction of radon resistant new buildings and by influencing real estate transactions,
especially in those geographic areas with the greatest radon potential. Target other information and
capability development aspects of program to areas and populations, such as smokers, at greatest risk.
Maintain a national campaign while supporting a targeted action approach as well.
Consumer Protection, Mitigation and Prevention: Protect consumers by evaluating the mea-
surement and mitigation industries. Continue to improve effectiveness and lower cost of mitigation tech-
nologies for homes, schools, and other large buildings. Develop and provide model standards and
techniques for radon resistant new construction. Encourage adoption of building codes, especially in
high risk areas.

Environmental Indicator Results

Since 1986,40 states have participated in the State/EPA Residential Radon Survey program (Figure 25).
Two additional states will participate in the last round of surveys in FY 1992. These surveys indicate that
approximately one in five homes nationwide have screening levels over ERA'S 4 pd/L action level. The
percentage of houses with screening measurements above 4 pCi/L varies widely from one state to an-
other, ranging from less than one percent in Louisiana and Hawaii to more than 70% in Iowa. The State/
EPA Radon Survey has provided individual states with a sound base of knowledge concerning the extent
of their radon problem. This information is being refined through EPA's mapping efforts so that states
can more effectively prioritized their finite resources in building and maintaining their radon programs.
The recently completed National Residential Radon Survey showed that about 6%  of U.S. homes have
annual average radon levels above 4 pCi/L Those homes with levels above 4 pCi/L represent one-third
of residential radon risk. Approximately 0.06% of the homes are estimated to have levels above 20 pd/
L, which represents one percent of the total residential radon risk.
Data is also collected to assess the extent of public awareness, testing, and mitigation. Polls conducted
V-37

-------
                                                                             INDOOR RADON
Figure 23. Estimated Exposure

                           National Residential Radon Distribution
        35
              U.S. Household Average = 1.27 pCi/L
                                               6.2 % U.S. Homes > 4 pCi/L
                                      4            6

                                  Radon Concentration (pCi/L)


Figure 24. Radon Program Cooperative Partners
   Medical & Public
   Health Organizations
                        American Public Health Assn.

                       American Cdl, of
                   American Medfcar
                     Association
            Community &
            Grass-roots Groups
                                    Environmental
                                      Protection
                                       Agency
       State Radon
                                                        NARELLO(Reaf
                                                              e)
   Media & News
   Organizations
Assn-ofState^err.
 Health Officials
                                               National Association
                                                  of Counties
                                             Intf.CityMa
State & Local
Governments
                                                                                  V-38

-------
Figure 25.  State/EPA Radon Survey Statewide Distributions


* VA and MT are conducting State/EPA Residential Radon Surveys in 1991 to 1992.

 DE, FL, NH, NJ, NY, and UT have conducted their own surveys.
                                                 -
                                                 :
                                                 :
                                                 x
                            Estimated Percent of Houses with Screening Levels Greater than 4 pCi/l
                                      *Dd Not  o%

                                    Participate in

                                       Suivey
20% >
Note: These results represent 2-7

day screening measurements and

should not be used to estimate annual

averages or health risks.

-------
                                                                            INDOOR RADON

to evaluate the radon awareness campaign indicate that 80% of the population has heard of radon, and
70% understand that radon poses a health risk. Approximately 6% of homes nationwide have been
tested for radon and about one-fourth of those with elevated levels have been mitigated.

Conclusions   Comparison of  Indicator Results  to

Strategies and Objectives

The Radon Program has assessed the public and institutional response to the radon problem. These
results show high levels of awareness and lower levels of testing and mitigation. Radon Program results
compare favorably with other similar public health programs like anti-smoking, drunk driving, seat belt,
and crime prevention efforts. These comparable programs required many years to build a sufficient
base of awareness and institutional networks before they could effectively generate individual and col-
lective action to reduce exposures to those risks.  The Radon Program will attempt to achieve a similar
trend towards increased public awareness and action over time, with increased emphasis in those areas
of the nation facing the greatest potential radon risk.
Data reported here reflect what is known about the status of the problem and current testing and mitiga-
tion rates. Ongoing data collection efforts will include indicators such as degrees of public awareness,
as well as frequencies and results of testing and mitigation, both nationally and in targeted areas. Addi-
tional indicator data to be collected will include the number of structures built with radon resistant fea-
tures, the number of tests and mitigations performed at the time of real  estate transactions, the number
of state and local jurisdictions with various legal requirements on radon, and more information on the
demographic characteristics of populations which are aware  of and acting on radon.  In most cases,
these data will be available in the fall of 1992 and collected annually thereafter. Data on structures built
with radon resistant features will be available on a biennial basis beginning in the fall of 1992. Future
data will continue to be used to evaluate the success of the Radon Program's strategies at reducing
health risks  nationwide.
                                                                                   V-40

-------
 VI.   Geographic  Initiatives


 Great  Lakes

 Environmental Trends

 Nutrients. In the Great Lakes, phosphorus is the limiting nutrient that, when present in elevated
 amounts, leads to accelerated eutrophication, excess algal growth, taste and odor problems, dissolved
 oxygen depletion, and changes in the composition of aquatic communities. The U.S. and Canada es-
 tablished phosphorus concentration targets for each of the Great Lakes as the basis for calculating ac-
 ceptable loadings.  Figure 1 shows that for Lakes Michigan and Huron, phosphorus concentrations have
 historically been near or below (e.g. within) the targets. Canadian data (not included here) demonstrate
 the same for Lake Superior. In Lakes Erie and Ontario, phosphorus concentrations were more than twice
 the target values in the early 1970s, but they have been reduced to levels near or below the targets
 since the late 1980s. Estimated loadings of phosphorus to Lake Erie have declined from approximately
 20,000 metric tons/year in the early 1970s to less than 9,000 tons/year today. Since the mid-1980s, load-
 ings to Lake Erie have been close to or less than the target level of 11,000 tons/year (Figure 2). How-
 ever, the bottom waters of the Central Basin still experience anoxia nearly every summer.
 Year-to-year differences in the thickness and temperature of the bottom water layer in the Central Basin
 of Lake Erie requires an oxygen depletion indicator that can be normalized to standard conditions, which
 is useful for comparing relative differences between years. The corrected rate of dissolved oxygen
 depletion is therefore reported rather than minimum dissolved oxygen concentration. Oxygen depletion
 rates in the Lake Erie Central Basin are highly variable from year to year (Figure 2) and are dependent
 on weather conditions and sediment resuspension as well as phosphorus loads. Lake morphometry,
 circulation patterns, sediment resuspension, and anoxic resolubilization of phosphorus contribute to in-
 ternal recycling of phosphorus that has continued to support algal growth leading to anoxia in the bottom
 waters. However, over the long term, oxygen depletion rates have declined, and in recent years the
 rates of depletion have been the lowest reported for at least 20 years. Apparent increases in phospho-
 rus in Lakes Erie and Ontario in 1991 are not yet cause for concern, pending further analysis, but they
 demonstrate the need for continued monitoring and load reductions.
 Toxic contaminants. Concentrations of contaminants in fish tissue over tirne (Figure 3) provide the
 best data from which to assess environmental or human health risks from chlorinated organic com-
 pounds that accumulate in the biota and become magnified through the food chain. In the Great Lakes,
 identified organic toxics problems include PCBs, DDT, chlordane, dieldrin, dioxins, and furans. In one or
 more lakes, additional concerns have been identified for the organic contaminants toxaphene,
 polyaromatic hydrocarbons (especially benzo-a-pyrene), mirex, hexachlorobenzene, and
 octachlorostyrene. Data comparable among the five lakes all demonstrate similar trends of decreasing
 concentrations in fish tissue from the 1970s until the early 1980s following a simple exponential rate of
 decline. Declines during the 1980s have been less dramatic. Some minor year-to-year fluctuations are
 seen, but they may be related to sampling variance, diet of the fish, or other variables.
 Organic contamination in fish is generally least severe in Lake Superior and Lake Erie, and most severe
 in Lake Ontario. Considerable data exist relating toxic organics to impacts on birds, mammals and fish
 populations in the Great Lakes. While concentrations of organics in the organisms are generally declin-
 ing, severe reproductive and developmental problems continue to be reported.
The heavy metals lead and mercury are also of concern because they can accumulate in fish.  Compre-
 hensive data for mercury in fish are lacking for the Great Lakes; however, evidence exists for increasing
concentrations  in fish throughout the Midwest. Lead also poses a problem to the Great Lakes ecosys-
tem in some locations, e.g., St. Clair River and St. Lawrence River.
                                                      U.S.  EPA Headquarters Li.ru.y
                                                             Mail code 3201
                                                      1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
                                                         Washington DC 20460        VI-1

-------
Figure 1.   Great Lakes Phosphorus Concentrations
Phosphorus targets have been maintained or achieved in all lakes except Erie. Improved sewage treatment is largely responsible. No U.S.
data for Lake Superior (see text).
                                                                                                                          ID
8
.1 7
1f> 6,
^ 5
1 4
c 3
8 2
8 1
0
'(
6
i6-
S. 4
1 I
1 1
0 0
'8
35
.£ 30
§> 25'
^20
jo 15
S 10
1 5
0 0
'8
Sources Great L

•— — — — — — — Non-Degradation Target— —
.
• • i • i • i
33 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '£
Lake Huron
[— • — — — — — — -Non-Degradation Target —
3 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '9
Lake Erie Western
A"
/
,.wow. *».«.. .».»«„. _ — — ~- r —
i • i • • • i
3 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 'Q
akes National Prooram Office. November 1991.

I
o
1
0)
0
o
0
1
Concentration (ug/Iiter)
1
IT
1
o
1
£3
0)
o
o
O
1


12
10
n
6
4
2
'8
Of)
15
10
o
'8
10
10
8
6
4
2
'8

••anc biic ««cii»iai
---.^•\.x\


3 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '9
Lake Erie Eastern
f m^^^^^~ '^^^ i
— Restoration Target — ••=^~~ — — — ~s~
• i ii ill
3 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '9
Lake Ontario
J
M
-1 1 1 1 1 1 I
3 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '9
Data quality! Good. Relevance to program




1
i
1



1
i High.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
     Figure 2.   Lake Erie:  Phosphorus and Oxygen Problems Persist
          Low oxygen depletion levels persist despite reductions in phos-
          phorous loadings and concentrations.  The normalized oxygen
          depletion rate is improving slowly.
                                                                           Phosphorous loadings (and concentrations) were below
                                                                           target levels during the late 1980s.
      o

      C?:
Q
T3
5
D9
I
C

I
"T
             Oxygen Depletion Trends in Lake Erie Central Basin
                                                                           12000-r
                                                                            10000
                                                                       8000
                                                                          ~
                                                             Approximate  «2
                                                                Target     £ 6000
                                                                          o
                                                                            4000' •
                                                                            2000-•
            70   72   7
                                                                                 Phosphorus Loadings to Lake Erie
                                                                                           ______ Target
                                                                                                               Load
                                                                                                                 Connecting
                                                                                                                 Channel
                                                                                                                 Tributary

                                                                                                                 Direct Municipal
                                                                                                                 Discharge
                                                                                                                 Direct Industrial
                                                                                                                 Discharge

                                                                                                                 Atmospheric
                                                                                                                 "Includes adjustment for
                                                                                                                  unmonitored area
                                                88   90
                                                                                         4-
                                                                                           4-
                                                                              1986    1987   1988    1989
S
i
CJ
Source: Great Lakes National Program Office, November 1991.
                                                                                  Data quality; Good.   Relevance to program;  High.
                                                                                                                                      [
                                                                                                                                      t
                                                                                                                                 m
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
s
I
Figure 3.  Great Lakes Toxics
Fish tissue monitoring indicates declining trends for DDT, RGBs, chlordane and dieldrin.  However, the trends have levelled off since the mid-
1980s. Lake-wide trends in other toxics - dioxins, furans, toxaphene, lead and mercury - are unknown.
                                 o
                                 33
                                                                                                                                               7;
                                                                                                                                               m
                                                                                                                                               w
      I
                            DDT in Coho Salmon Tissue
                            Average 48% decrease. Relatively high in
                            Ontario, low in Erie.
            1980
                     1981
                              1982
                                       1983
                                                1984
                                                         1986
                                                                 1988
                                                                                          Chlordane in Coho Salmon Tissue
                                                                                          Average 57% decrease. Relatively high in
                                                                                          Ontario, low in Erie.
                                                                                        Trace amounts In Lake Superior
                                                                                  1980
                                                                                           1981
                                                                                                    1982
                                                                                                            1983
                                                                                                                     1984
                                                                                                                             1986
                                                                                                                                       ME
                                                                                                                                      1983
      1
                                                       S - Lake Superior
                                                       M - Lake Michigan
                                                       H - Lake Huron
                                                                       E - Lake Erie
                                                                       O - Lake Ontario
                            PCBs in Coho Salmon Tissue
                            Average 64% decrease. Relatively high in
                            Ontario, low in Erie.
               Trace amounts In Lake Superior
                                                                               0.06
Data quality:  Good.
Relevance to program; High.
                                                                                          Dieldrin in Coho Salmon Tissue
                                                                                          Average 70% decrease. Relatively high in
                                                                                          Michigan, low in Ontario.

                                                                                                       Trace amounts in Lake Superior
                                                                                                       H	1	1	1
            1980
                     1981
                              1982
                                       1983
                                                1984
                                                         1986
                                                                  1988
                                                                                  1980
                                                                                           1981
                                                                                                   1982
                                                                                                            1983
                                                                                                                    1984
                                                                                                                             1986
                                                                                                                                      1988
      Source: Great Lakes National Program Office, November 1991.
      Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
                                                                                   GREAT LAKES

Toxics-contaminated sediments are found at many harbors and river mouths throughout the Great
Lakes. Data on the extent and distribution of the sediments are inadequate to fully characterize the
problems and select remedies. Information at each site is needed on the distribution and surface area
of contaminated sediments, their depth and volume, chemicals present, toxicity of the chemicals, poten-
tial for sediment transport and redistribution, and the movement of the chemicals from the sediments to
the water and aquatic communities. U.S. demonstrations of alternative treatment technologies are un-
derway, but intensive, focused actions will be required at each site to bring about beneficial changes
(see Areas of Concern, below).
Sources of toxic contaminants are many, but few are well quantified. Data are fragmented.  Loadings
information is inherently more difficult to quantify than concentration data. More effort is needed to de-
fine pollutant contributions from source categories to each lake.
Areas of Concern. The U.S. and Canada have designated 43 severely degraded locations in the
Great Lakes as Areas of Concern (Figure 4). Twenty-six Areas of Concern (AoCs) are in the U.S., 12 are
Canadian, and 5 are shared.  For each location, state or provincial authorities are preparing and will
implement a comprehensive Remedial Action Plan (RAP) to restore beneficial uses that have been  im-
paired. Cleanup actions are proceeding at most of the AoCs at the same time the RAPs are being  de-
veloped. Of the U.S. and shared sites with recognized water quality problems (eutrophication, undesir-
able algae or impacted plankton populations) or bacterial contamination, over 90% have received some
sort of positive action to alleviate the problem.  Of those sites with contaminated sediments or identified
losses of fish and wildlife habitat, only 20% have received positive actions to date. Many of the AoCs
contain designated or proposed Superfund sites which are presumed to contribute to the use impair-
ments at the AoCs. Tangible clean-up actions have been initiated at 86% of these sites.
Exotic species. Zebra mussels (Figure 5) are but the latest in a long series of invading species to
become established in the Great Lakes. They have generated considerable concern because of their
interference with underwater structures such as power plant intakes, and because of the expected costs
of preventing or controlling their impacts. They have already spread out of the Great Lakes basin and
into the Mississippi River, Hudson River, Illinois River and Kentucky Lake, which is navigable by barges
from the Ohio River.  Another closely related species, the "quagga mussel," with different habitat require-
ments, has now been found in Lake Ontario and the Erie Canal. These and other invaders (e.g., lamprey
eel, river  ruffe, tube-nosed goby, spiny water flea) destabilize the Great Lakes aquatic community struc-
ture and place considerable stress on displaced native species. Re-establishing and maintaining domi-
nance of native species will require actions in addition to reducing toxic contaminants. Additional strin-
gent measures, such as enforced compliance  with ballast water exchange procedures, are needed to
prevent new invaders from being introduced.
Habitat losses. The acreage of wetlands in the Great Lakes watershed is greatly reduced from their
estimated pre-settlement extent (Figure 5).  Over the past 200 years, the percentage of wetlands lost
within the drainage basin, by state, ranges from 42% in Minnesota (Lake Superior watershed) to over
90% in Ohio (Lake Erie watershed).  Data defining the recent rates of loss are not available, although
changes  in legislation and removal of economic incentives for wetlands destruction should have slowed
the rate of loss. However, anecdotal information confirms that wetlands destruction continues.
Other types of habitat destruction include siltation or other removal of fish spawning  beds, obstructions
to fish migration in the tributaries, and changes in water temperatures. Comprehensive data on the type,
location and extent of habitat damage are not readily available.  Literature review, data collection, and
field surveys are now beginning in some lake basins.

Great Lakes Strategy

Historical approaches. Addressing environmental problems in the Great Lakes has been an evolu-
tionary process. The first Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between the U.S. and Canada, in 1972, was
clearly oriented toward controlling excess nutrient loadings. Revision of the Water Quality Agreement in


                                                                                        VI-5

-------
Figure 4.  Great Lakes Areas of Concern

Areas of Concern are tributary waters and harbors that
are priority places for remedial action.
          Problem Identified
          Actions Taken to Remedy Problem
  Water Pollution: Many rivers and bays are still eutrophic or
  toxics-contaminated.  Actions now underway will bhng improvements
  virtually everywhere.
  Contaminated Sediments: Contaminated sediments are at
  every Area of Concern; cleanup is underway at 6 sites.
   Source: Oreat Lakes Natonal Program Office, Nov. 1991
   Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/November 1991
Superfund Sites: Removal and/or remedial work has begun at 19 of
the 22 Superfund sites located within watersheds of Areas of Concern.
Note: Dots show locators of AOCs receiving drainage from Superfund sites, not
the actial locations of the sites.
                                                                                 Bacterial Contamination: Contamination is from sewage
                                                                                 overflows, septic seepage and livestock wastes. BMPs and CSO
                                                                                 remediation are improving conditions.
                                                                                Habitat Losses:  Natural habitat has been lost throughout the
                                                                                system. Among Areas of Concern, losses are mostly in the connecting
                                                                                channels and rivers draining to Lake Erie. Progress is limited.

-------
Figure 5. Habitat Losses And Exotic Species
           Are Altering The Great Lakes
           Ecosystem, but Indicator Data Are Scattered
  The Zebra Mussel has spread throughout shallow areas of the
  lower lakes and their tributaries. They have moved into the upper
  lakes, and are now spreading beyond the Great Lakes Basin.
Wetland losses are not well documented. USFWS estimates that
54% of wetland acres in Great Lakes states have been lost since
the 1780's, which is equivalent to the national rate of loss.
             Spread of the Zebra Mussel: 1988-1991
                                     CANADA
    Spawning beds have been destroyed, but
    there are few data on rates and locations.

    Fish passage has been obstructed in tributaries
    and the connecting channels, but data are not
    available

  Source: Great Lakes National Program Office, 1991
   Estimated Wetlands Losses in the Great Lakes Basin
                                                                                    12000000T


                                                                                     0000000
                                                                                         •

                                                                                     2000000
  Source: Adapted from T.E. Dahl, Wetland Losses in The United States
  1780's 101980*5 USFWS, 1990
  Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch, December, 1991

-------
                                                                                  GREAT LAKES

1978 and 1987 placed heavy emphasis on eliminating toxic contaminants from the ecosystem. State
and federal agencies, coordinated largely by the International Joint Commission, developed plans for
addressing the most pressing and easily identifiable problems. One result of that effort was the Areas of
Concern program discussed above. The development and implementation of Remedial Action Plans for
AoCs has fostered cooperation among federal, state and local government agencies, academic institu-
tions, environmental interest groups, industry and the public.  Lakewide Management Plans also are also
being developed to guide programs to reduce and prevent loadings of critical contaminants to each
lake.

As the problems of toxic contaminants became more defined, and actions leading to reductions of con-
taminant loadings and concentrations were established, issues of habitat began to be recognized.  Even
if ail toxic contaminants were removed from the Great Lakes basin, the ecosystem would not be re-
stored.  Many native species have become extinct, and some important fish species no longer repro-
duce nor are self-sustaining. Exotic species have replaced many others. Reductions in wetlands and
upland habitats have reduced the populations of wildlife dependent upon the Great Lakes natural re-
sources.
The New Great Lakes Strategy. The Five-Year Strategy for the Great Lakes was developed by
state, federal, and tribal agencies, acting through the U.S. Great Lakes Policy Committee, to institutional-
ize the long-term commitment of the  USEPA to restoring and maintaining the ecological integrity of the
Great Lakes.  Beginning in FY 1992,  the Strategy will be the guiding force behind not only EPA's Great
Lakes planning process, but also for related work plans of our state and federal partners.
The Strategy encompasses all three  cornerstones of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement goal of
restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the waters of the Great Lakes
Basin ecosystem.  This is being accomplished through the following commitments:

To restore the chemical integrity of the Great Lakes, we will reduce the level of toxic substances in the
Great Lakes and the surrounding habitat, with an emphasis on persistent toxic substances, so that all
organisms are adequately protected and, over time,  these substances will be virtually eliminated from
the Great Lakes ecosystem.

To restore the physical integrity of the Great Lakes Basin, we will protect and restore habitats vital for the
support of healthy and diverse communities of plants, fish, and wildlife, with an emphasis on those habi-
tats needed by endangered and threatened species.

To protect biological integrity, we will protect human health, and restore and maintain stable, diverse and
self-sustaining populations of fish, other aquatic life,  wildlife and plants, within the Great Lakes Basin
ecosystem.
The fundamental approach of the Great Lakes Strategy is to consider the ecosystem as a whole - the
"ecosystem approach." The focus of attention has shifted from nutrients to toxic contaminants. Efforts to
address issues of habitat are now just beginning.  The Strategy further recognizes and takes advantage
of the need to create partnerships among the many agencies and entities in which technical expertise
and legislative authorities reside. The success of this Strategy in forcing desirable environmental
changes, directed toward defined ecosystem objectives, will be evaluated by continued monitoring and
reporting of the environmental indicators included here, plus additional ones that will be selected as tox-
ics and  habitat problems become better characterized.

Progress Evaluation
The nutrient control programs growing out of the 1972 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement are a
"world class" success story, but some parts of the Great Lakes still suffer from eutrophication related to
excess phosphorus. Included are Lake Erie (Western and Central Basins), Green Bay (Lake Michigan),
and Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron). Continued efforts to maintain or further reduce phosphorus loading and
to monitor for results are required in these areas.


                                                                                       VI -8

-------
GREAT LAKES

Progress has been made in reducing levels of many high-risk toxics in fish tissues, primarily due to na-
tionwide bans on their production and use. These banned chemicals include PCBs, DDT, chlordane
and dieldrin. However, widespread toxics contamination problems remain, as evidenced by fish con-
sumption advisories. Fish and wildlife reproductive failures and other abnormalities may also be associ-
ated with toxics contamination. Programs for further toxics reduction and cleanup are being designed.
In many cases, remedial actions are already underway, but results in terms of measurable toxics reduc-
tions may not be apparent for several more years.
With regard to contaminated sediments, environmental actions have begun at some AoCs; however, the
most difficult contaminated sediments problems are far from being resolved.
Considerable work still needs to be done before Great Lakes toxics and habitat problems are even fully
characterized and their economic and ecological impacts defined. In the absence of this information,
plans with measurable risk-reduction goals and objectives have not yet been developed.
 VI-9

-------
                                                                              CHESAPEAKE BAY


Chesapeake  Bay

Environmental Trends
The Chesapeake Bay Program has an active water quality monitoring program that has provided de-
tailed environmental data since 1984.  This data collection is backed by an analytic program that has
assessed Bay conditions and trends using a series of indicators. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentra-
tions have been the focus of the analytic efforts.
Water Quality and Nutrient Loadings. Figure 6 shows nutrient concentration trends in the
Chesapeake Bay. Phosphorus concentrations are going down -19% since 1984. Bay-wide, nitrogen
concentrations are essentially unchanged. However, nitrogen concentrations have increased in some
portions of the Bay, such as the upper Bay where water quality is dominated by the Susquehanna River.
Phosphorus loadings from  both point and nonpoint sources have dropped rapidly (Figure 7). Nitrogen
loadings from nonpoint sources also are declining, and there have been reductions in industrial and mu-
nicipal  point source loads since 1988. Estimated 1985 source contributions of both nutrients have been
revised with a new Chesapeake Bay "watershed  model" (Figure 8).
Dissolved oxygen has not yet increased (Figure 9), and examination of the pattern of certain historical
data suggests that there has been little change over the last 40 years. The reduction in phosphorus
alone is insufficient to reduce oxygen-demanding algae growth, so dissolved oxygen remains depleted.
Furthermore, warm winters have contributed to warmer Chesapeake Bay waters, which makes it more
difficult to hold dissolved oxygen.
Habitat.  Submerged aquatic vegetation suffered dramatic declines in the early 1970s, but it  has be-
gun to return in some tributary areas where advanced pollution controls have been in place the longest
(Figure 9). Steady progress has been made in reopening blocked tributaries to anadromous fish migra-
tions (Figure 10).
Living Resources. Fish and oyster stocks continue to decline (Rgure 10). Striped bass reproductive
success (as measured by the juvenile index) increased during a five-year moratorium on fishing. In
1990, the striped bass fishing ban was partially lifted.

Chesapeake Bay Strategy

The strategy to restore and protect the Chesapeake  Bay is designed to more carefully manage its living
resources and reduce pollutants flowing from the population centers and other land areas tributary to the
Bay - especially agricultural lands. The strategy, outlined  in the Chesapeake Bay Agreement,  contains
many sub-elements that support these two basic thrusts.
The decline in the harvests of most Bay fish species  has been a major concern of the Chesapeake Bay
Program which has reacted with advanced pollution  prevention and controls directed especially toward
nutrient reductions, with aggressive  fisheries management plans and studies to better understand the
ecological systems and control harvests, and with efforts to restore and protect important habitats.
Nutrients.  Research conducted by EPA between 1977 and 1983 suggested that prevention and con-
trol of pollution from nutrients should be an early  program priority. In response, a nonpoint source con-
trol program was instituted beginning in 1984, and stronger controls of nutrients from both point and
nonpoint sources were initiated in 1988 to meet a goal of 40% nutrient reduction by the year 2000.
These programs focus on agriculture, municipal wastewater, stormwater from urban areas, and on fed-
eral facilities.  A similar reduction program, far less advanced, covers the discharge of toxics into the Bay.

Fish and Habitat.  Bay-wide fisheries management plans have been adopted for ten species of com-
mercially and recreationally important  Bay fish and shellfish, most of which now suffer depleted stocks.
In parallel with this, efforts are underway to restore and protect habitats important to the survival of these
and other ecologically important species. Emphasis has been given to removing impediments to fish

                                                                                    VI-10

-------
s
I
Figure 6.   Nutrients in the Chesapeake Bay
                                                        o
                                                        IE
                                                        m
                                                                                                                              m
            Phosphorus is Going Down
            Success is due to phosphate detergent ban, improved
            sewage treatment, and soil erosion controls.
                                                                    Nitrogen is Essentially Unchanged
                                                                    Reasons are: uncontrolled discharges from sewage
                                                                    plants, fertilizer and animal waste, and air deposition.
       0.06
                                       Phosphorus
                                       Down 19%
         Oct84    Oct85   Oct86   Oct87    Oct 88   Oct89
                                                      Oct 90
Oct 84   Oct 85   Oct 86   Oct 87   Oct 88   Oct 89   OctQO
     Source: EPA Chesapeake Bay Program. January 1992.
                                                                                               Data quality; Good.
                                                                                               Relevance to program; High.
     Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
     Figure 7.   Trends in Total Nutrient Loadings to the Chesapeake Bay
            Industrial and Municipal Point Source Loading
            Trends
            Phosphorus loads are diminishing and nitrogen loads
            have begun to decline.  Sewage flows have grown about
            6% since 1985.
                                                           Nonpoint Source Loading Trends*
                                                           Estimated reductions in both phosphorus and nitrogen
                                                           are exceeding expectations. Estimates are based on soil
                                                           erosion and animal waste management data.  Nitrogen
                                                           fertilizer use is down 25% since 1980.
     TJ
     CD
     O

     to
     00
     en
     o
     
                                                                       80 -
                                                                    c
                                                                    CD
                                                                    CD
                                                                    Q.
                                                                    8> 70
                                                                       60 --
                                               Reported
                                               NandP-
                                              reductions
                                                                                  Target
                                                                        :n__
1985
1990
1995
2000
5
      Data quality; Point Sources: Moderate; self-reporting, not
      statistically representative of all sources. Nonpoint Sources: Useful
      for relative trend, Imprecise due to estimates.
      Relevance to program; High.
     Source: Progress Report of tiie Baywide Nutrient Reduction Evaluation (Draft 2.2) January 1992.
                                                           Reported "load" reductions are actually amounts "re-
                                                           leased" from farm fields rather than amounts delivered
                                                           to the Bay. The lag time between release and delivery
                                                           is longer for nitrogen than phosphorus because much
                                                           of the nitrogen is carried slowly to the Bay in ground
                                                           water. Therefore, the water quality response to re-
                                                           duced nutrient releases is slower for nitrogen than for
                                                           phosphorus.
                                                                                                o
                                                                                                I
                                                                                                                 m
                                                                                                                 ro
     Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
    Figure 8. Sources of Chesapeake Bay Nutrient Loads
   Estimates of "base year" (1985) contributions have been revised with a new watershed model. Sewage and
   fertilizers were dominant sources of both nitrogen and phosphorus. Air deposition is the largest source of
   nitrogen.
   Nitrogen Sources
   EPA estimates about 1/3 of the total toad comes from
   air nitrogen (motor vehicles and power plants) deposited
   directly on water (11%) or on land and then carried to the
   Bay in runoff and groundwater.
                                                       Farmland

                                                       Livestock

                                                       Forest

                                                       Urban Runoff

                                                       Point Source

                                                       Atmosphere-
                                                       direct deposition
                                                       on water
                           Phosphorus Sources
                           The phosphate detergent ban and improved
                           phosphorus removal have since reduced point
                           source contributions.
                                                      37%
                                                   11%
Source: EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office, November 1991
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/November 1991
Data quality: Varied; involves estimates & models.

Relevance to Program: High.
                                                                                             3%

-------
Figure 9.  Chesapeake Bay Oxygen and Grasses
         Dissolved Oxygen Has Not Yet Responded
         There is still too much nitrogen and phosphorus to allow
         for increases in oxygen.
                                                                        Submerged grasses are Recovering Baywide
                                                                        But current acreage is only 1/10 of potential coverage.
1600000-
1200000-
"5)
'o
^ 800000-
Q
0
Q
400000-
0 -



U.^J. l_



cm


^ii































1 I 1 I 1
                                                               50000       Submerged Aquatic Vegetation coverage
                                                               40000 -
                                                               30000 -
                                                            OT
                                                            0)
                                                              20000 _
                                                               10000 -
             1985    1986    1987    1988     1989     1990
                                                                            1978    1984    1985    1986    1987    1989    1990
I
-*.
&
 Data quality; Moderate; precise and accurate
 sampling difficult due to estuarine complexity.
 Relevance to program! High.
                                                                              Data quality: Aerial photography is moderately
                                                                              but not highly precise and accurate.
                                                                              Relevance to program: High.
Source: EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office, November 1991.
o
                                                                                                                           DO
                                                                                                                           >
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
S    Figure 10. Chesapeake Bay Fish
i
j*    Striped bass have responded to protection, but shad, oysters and others continue steep declines.
     Ban on Striped Bass Fishing Pro-
     duced Dramatic Results
     Declines in shad, perch, weakfish and
     oysters are caused by over-fishing, habi-
     tat losses and obstructions to migration.
      Data quality; Moderate; fish
      sampling presents spatial/
      temporal Inconsistencies.
      Relevance to program;  High.
                                                1954   1960  1966  1972   1978   1984  1990
                                            Barriers to Fish that Migrate
                                            Upriver to Spawn are Being
                                            Removed
                                            From 1989 to 1991, more than 173
                                            miles of habitat have become ac-
                                            cessible by removing dams and
                                            constructing fish ladders. 85 addi-
                                            tional miles will become accessible
                                            in 1992.
                                                                                                300
                                                                                              DO
                                                                                              0)
                                           250 -
                                         CO
                                         CD
                                         = 200
                                                                                                150 -
                                                                                              :-



                                                                                              tt




                                                                                              '
                                                                                              E
                                                                                              O 100
                                                                                                 50 -
                                                                                                  0 -I
                                                                                                        Stream miles opened
                                                                                                         to migratory fishes
                                                           1992
rr
:
T
5
-
m
;-
         1928  1938  1948  1958  1968  1978  1988
1928  1938   1948  1958  1968  1978  1988
     Source:  EPA Chesapeake Program, November 1991.
     Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
                                                                                CHESAPEAKE BAY

migrations necessary for the reproductive success of many anadromous species; to the protection of the
wetlands; and to the restoration of the Bay's submerged aquatic vegetation now shaded out by nutrient-
driven algae growth.
The strategy for accomplishing these goals also involves public education, improved opportunities for
public access to the Bay, and programs to counter the degrading impacts of the watershed's growing
population and land development.
The Chesapeake Bay Program has published 29 separate plans that implement this strategy. The Pro-
gram recently adopted an Action Agenda to stress the accelerated reduction of nutrients, new efforts to
preserve important habitats, and new efforts to involve groups that have not been well represented in
public discussions of the restoration effort. It has also noted the need to extend the successful pollution
prevention programs so that they play an important role in the future.

Progress Evaluation
The indicators of the Chesapeake Bay's condition in all three areas (nutrients, habitat, fish) reveal that
the Bay is responding, for the most part, as expected. The drop in phosphorus concentrations closely
parallels reduced loadings from both point sources and nonpoint sources. Point source controls have
dropped phosphorus loadings to below the level set as a goal for the year 2000, due  largely to the ban
on phosphate detergents, but also due  to new advanced treatment systems in a number of plants. The
lack of improvement in nitrogen concentrations appears to be a result of increases through 1988 in load-
ings from sewage plants, which have accompanied population growth in the watershed. Some treat-
ment plants now remove nitrogen, but this technology is still in the planning stages for many other plants.
The post-1988 reductions in nitrogen from point sources have come primarily from a sizeable drop in
industrial discharges.
Nonpoint source controls on nitrogen and phosphorus are being successfully implemented. However,
they will take many years to have an effect in terms of reduced nitrogen concentrations because of the
length of time it takes nitrogen to travel through soil and ground water to the Bay.  Much of the nitrogen
now entering the Bay was placed on cropland many years ago.
Air deposition is an important contributor to Chesapeake Bay nutrient problems (particularly nitrogen),
but little has been done so far to reduce it. EPA and Environmental Defense Fund studies indicate that a
large part of the nitrogen entering the Chesapeake (25 to 40%) is deposited from the air. Nearly all the
nitrogen loading from the air comes from motor vehicles and electric power plants, which together ap-
pear to contribute more nitrogen to the Bay than any other source. This information was not available to
the signers of the 1987 Chesapeake Bay Agreement, so the resultant nutrient reduction strategy does
not yet address sources of nitrogen in the air.  If air deposition is not curtailed,  reductions in total nitro-
gen loadings to the Bay brought through current efforts may be less than originally expected.
While plans have been made for the restoration of fisheries stocks, many factors essential  to their resto-
ration, such as natural cycles and diseases that influence their abundance, have yet to be fully understood.
In several cases, the stocks have dropped below sustainable minimum  levels thus retarding their ability to
rebound.  For these reasons, the return  of fisheries stocks may not happen for many more years.
                                                                                      VI-16

-------
GULF OF MEXICO

Gulf of  Mexico

Introduction
Information in this section is different from that for the other two geographic initiatives highlighted in this
report because this is a relatively newer and smaller program. There has been no specific budget or
monitoring program to develop a new environmental data base for the Gulf coast as a whole, while there
have been multi-million dollar federal monitoring programs for the Great Lakes and the Chesapeake Bay
for over a decade. EPA's Gulf of Mexico Program is using its more modest resources to gather and or-
ganize existing data into reports characterizing what is known about the extent and distribution of the
principal environmental problems of the Gulf, but these environmental characterization reports are not
yet completed. Therefore, for this report, OPPE has simply drawn upon national data bases for some of
the problems identified by the Gulf of Mexico Program as high priority. The three topics highlighted here
are wetland loss, closure of shellfish waters due to water quality problems, and toxic emissions.
According to scoping documents prepared by the EPA Gulf of Mexico Program, the Gulf has shown
signs of deteriorating environmental quality during the past few decades (EPA, America's  Sea at Risk:
First Progress Report on the Gulf of Mexico Program, 1990). Continuing rapid loss of wetland and
seagrass habitats threatens the productivity of commercial fishery stocks. Runoff from farms and devel-
oped areas carries pesticides and nutrients into the Gulf. Excess nutrients have caused several inci-
dents of hypoxia. Up to 3,000 square miles of bottom waters known as the "dead zone" have recently
been documented off the Louisiana and Texas coast.  Overfishing, toxic pollution from industry, and ma-
rine debris are also growing problems.
Many of the Gulf's environmental problems are the result of rapid population growth, which is expected
to continue.  Florida, for example, is projected to grow by another three million people during the 1990s.

Gulf of Mexico Strategy
EPA's Gulf of Mexico Program was established in 1988 to develop and implement a strategy to protect,
restore, and maintain the health and productivity of the Gulf.
The Gulf program is improving coordination among federal, state, and local programs that focus  on the
Gulf to identify and address environmental issues before irreversible damage or high cost prevents their
repair. The Gulf program is also providing a regional perspective to address research needs for the Gulf,
intended to result in improved information and methods for supporting effective management decisions.
The main goal of the program is to develop a "framework for action" in the Gulf composed of individual
action plans for marine debris, habitat loss, freshwater inflow, nutrient enrichment, toxics and pesticides
contamination, public health, and coastal erosion. The action plans are being developed by nine
interagency technical subcommittees.  Each action plan will attempt to define specific environmental
issues, characterize these issues, assess potential corrective actions, establish predictive indicators,
and result in implementation and monitoring of the most effective and practical corrective actions.

Environmental Indicators

Loss of Coastal Wetlands
According to NOAA, the Gulf of Mexico region accounts for 51% of all coastal wetlands in the U.S
(NOAA,  Coastal Wetlands of the United States, 1991). It contains 61% of the Nation's freshwater marsh,
58% of salt marshes, 47% of forested wetlands, and 42% of tidal flats.  Florida has the most coastal wet-
lands with nearly 10 million acres, 72%  of which are along the Gulf coast. When combined with the 3.3
million acres in Louisiana, these two states account for 49% of the Gulf's coastal wetlands.

The most severe wetlands loss in the country is in Louisiana, which is currently losing about 40 square
miles or 25,000 acres of wetlands per year. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reports that main causes
of Louisiana's coastal wetlands loss include the construction of levees to control flooding,  (as levees

VI-17

-------
                                                                                GULF OF MEXICO

 prevent flood-borne sediments from counteracting natural erosion),the activities of the oil and gas indus-
 try, and sea level rise (USFWS, 1984). Coastal Louisiana has been subsiding over the past 30 years as
 ground water, and oil and gas have been extracted, resulting in the inundation and erosion of marshes.
 The cutting of channels to provide access to oil and gas wells has allowed salt water to intrude into
 freshwater marshes, killing vegetation and converting them to more brackish wetlands or open water.

 Shellfish Conditions and Trends
 The Gulf ranks first in the Nation in both total acres of classified shellfish growing waters and total acres
 of prohibited shellfish-growing waters. The quantity of shellfish harvested and the water quality of shell-
 fish growing waters are important environmental indicators for near coastal waters. According to NOAA,
 these indicators show a steady decline in the Gulf over the past three decades (although there are diffi-
 culties assessing the actual changes in water quality from regional summary reports because the areas
 monitored have changed greatly during the past 30 years) (NOAA, The 1990 National Shellfish Register
 of Classified Estuarine Waters, 1990).
 Steady Decline lit Harvest. Between 1985 and 1990 oyster landings declined 50% in the Gulf of
 Mexico.  The Gulf is now the second largest oyster-producing region, following Washington State.
 Decline In Approved Shellfish-Growing Waters. Approved shellfishing areas in the region de-
 clined from 54% of classified waters in 1985 to 48% in 1990. Over 3.7 million acres now are classified as
 harvest-limited with shellfishing restricted in some way, or prohibited, due to poor water quality. De-
 clines in approved acreage occurred in Florida and Texas, while Mississippi and Louisiana gained ap-
 proved acreage.
 The increase in the number of prohibited acres is mostly due to management decisions based on in-
 creased monitoring (Figure 11). That is to say, it is possible that water quality was equally bad in early
 years, but monitoring did not extend into as many areas with poor water quality, so they were not identi-
 fied as needing to be closed to fishing.  It is equally possible that conditions in  general are actually get-
 ting worse. Current data cannot distinguish between these two possibilities. Between 1985 and 1989,14
 of the 32 estuaries in the Gulf had net downgrades in classification, 8 had upgrades, and 10 had no net
 change.  Regardless of whether there has truly been an increase in the amount of areas with poor water
 quality, there is a much greater percentage of Gulf coastal waters with prohibited or restricted
 shellfishing due to water quality problems than any other region of the country (see national data, Figure 12 in
 Coastal Water section of this report).

 Sources of Pollution.  NOAA has concluded that the large proportion of waters restricted or prohib-
 ited for shellfishing, and the continuing declines in shellfish harvests, are primarily the result of coastal
 development (NOAA, The 1990 National Shellfish Register of Classified Estuarine Waters, 1990).  NOAA
 estimates that about 80% of the fecal conform loads to the Gulf are from nonpoint sources. Among non-
 point sources, septic systems affect 48% of harvest-limited shellfish growing waters, which is  indicative
 of the many small communities in the region. Sewage treatment plants are a significant source in the most
 developed estuaries such as Tampa Bay, Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Delta region, and Galveston Bay.
 As population grows in coastal areas, NOAA estimates that estuarine water quality will continue to decline.

 Toxic Chemical Releases from the Petroleum Refining Industry

 Petroleum refining is one of the major industrial sources of toxic chemical releases to the Gulf. Refineries
 are mostly located near large cities close to the major oil fields in Texas and Louisiana, especially
 around Galveston and New Orleans.  Petroleum refining is one of the industries required to report the
 release of some 320 toxic chemicals to the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI), which is the most compre-
 hensive source of information on toxic chemical releases to the air, water, and  land.  Rgures  12a - g
show total releases to all media of the seven most hazardous chemicals  reported to TRI, based on the
toxicity and carcinogenicity information in the TRI Risk Screening Guide.

 More benzene was released by petroleum refineries than any of the other seven most hazardous chemi-
cals. Prolonged low-level exposure to benzene, a suspected carcinogen, can damage the nervous sys-

                                                                                     VI-18

-------
GULF OF MEXICO

Figure 11.  Trends in Classified Shellfish Waters in the Gulf of Mexico

The increase in number of prohibited acres is mostly due to management decisions based on increased
monitoring. Between 1985 and 1989, 14 of the 32 estuaries in the Gulf had net downgrades in classifica-
tion, 8 had upgrades, and 10 had no net change.
                 Approved

                 Cond itional/Restricted

                 Prohibited
                                                                    '  4,000,000
                                                                    '  3,000,000
                                                                    •• 2,000,000
                                                                      1,000,000
                   1971
1974
1980
1985
1990
 Data quality; Useful for relative
 Information, has important temporal
 Inconsistencies.
Source: NOAA. The 1990 National Shellfish Register of Classified Estuarine, 1990.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
VI- 19

-------
                                                                            GULF OF MEXICO

Figures 12a. - 12g.  Toxic Chemical Releases from the Petroleum Refining
                        Industry to the Gulf of Mexico

These figures show total releases to all media of the seven most hazardous chemicals reported to TRI,
based on the toxicity and carcinogenicity information in the TRI Risk Screening Guide. These data are
aggregated for the counties that are all or in part within the estuarine and coastal drainage areas, as
defined in NOAA's National Estuarine Inventory Data Atlas.
Source: These maps were compiled from data downloaded from the Toxics Releases Inventory Database by the Environmental Results
     and Forecasting Branch
Figure 12a.
                                            Naphthalene
                                        991,030 Total Pounds Released
                                             1 to 219,682
                                             219,683 to 439,364
                                             439,365 to 659,047
                                             659,048 to 878,729
                                                                                 VI-20

-------
GULF OF MEXICO
Figure 12b.
                                            Benzene
                                      2,532,977 Total Pounds Released
                                           1 to 218,066
                                           218,067 to 436,132
                                           436,133 to 654,198
                                           654,199 to 872,264
Figure 12c.
                                          Chromium
                                       220,389 Total Pounds Released
                                           1 to 47,720
                                           47,721 to 95,439
                                           95,440 to 143,159
                                           143,160 to 190,878
 VI-21

-------
                                                                      GULF OF MEXICO
Figure 12d.
                                         Nickel Compounds
                                      114,799 Total Pounds Released
                                             1 to 6,989
                                             6,990 to 13,978
                                             13,979 to 20,967
                                             20,968 to 27,956
Figure 12e.
                                          Zinc Compounds
                                       121,289 Total Pounds Released
                                             1 to 8,638
                                          il 8.639 to 17,276
                                             17,277 to 25,914
                                             25,915 to 34,552
                                                                           VI-22

-------
GULF OF MEXICO

 Figure 12f.
                                         Chromium Compounds
                                          180,590 Total Pounds Released
                                               1 to 22,470
                                            El 22,471 to 44,940
                                               44,941 to 67,410
                                               67,411 to 89,880
   Figure 12g.
                                          Manganese Compounds
                                            114,215 Total Pounds Released
                                                 1 to 27,587
                                                 27,588 to 55,175
                                                 55,176 to 82,762
                                                 82,763 to 110,350
   VI-23

-------
                                                                                GULF OF MEXICO

tern. Benzene is highly toxic to plants and animals, particularly aquatic life. Benzene in the atmosphere,
however, is broken down in a few days (EPA, The 1989 Toxics Release Inventory National Report, 1991).
Benzene is primarily used in the manufacture of other chemicals, such as the production of gasoline.
Nationwide, the petroleum industry ranks third in the release of benzene after the primary metals and
chemicals industries.

Toxic Chemical Releases From Pulp and Paper Mills

In addition to the petroleum industry, the pulp and paper industry is a major source of toxic pollution to the
Gulf. Rather than being concentrated near large cities as petroleum and chemical industries are, pulp
and paper mills are dispersed throughout Gulf region. In 1989, the year of the most recent available data,
78 pulp and paper mills in the Gulf states reported total releases of 71,791,432 pounds of 35 chemicals.

The 11  Chemicals of Concern, Eleven of the 35 TRI chemicals released were selected for analy-
sis because they are the most hazardous, based on the toxicity and carcinogenicity information in the
TRI Risk Screening Guide.  A total 19,221,722 pounds were released from 64 facilities to all media, in-
cluding fugitive (unplanned) and stack air emissions, direct surface water discharges, underground in-
jections,  land disposal, transfers to POTWs, and off-site transfers to other treatment facilities. Air re-
leases accounted for about half of the total.  Direct releases to surface water were only two percent of
the total. Figures 13 a and b show the location of the nine facilities that released the largest amount of
these 11  chemicals to air and water.
Most concern about toxics pollution from pulp and paper mills has been focused on dioxin produced
during the bleaching of wood pulp. The term "dioxin"  refers to a set of 210 chlorinated chemicals. Fa-
cilities are not currently required to report releases of the two most potent forms of dioxin  known as
TCDD and TCDF to TRI. (If facilities have NPDES water discharge permit limits for TCDD and  TCDF,
data on releases will be reported to the EPA Permit Compliance System.)
Chloroform, Chloroform was one of the most notable releases. More chloroform (about 6 million
pounds) was released to the air than any other chemical. In addition  to being a suspected carcinogen,
chronic overexposure has been shown to cause liver and kidney damage.  Since chloroform evaporates
rapidly from water and soil, almost all chloroform released into the environment ends up in the atmo-
sphere.  It degrades relatively slowly, with a half-life ranging from a few months to a year, and may con-
tribute to photochemical smog. Exposure to chloroform may cause chromosomal damage to certain
plants, and chloroform is moderately toxic to aquatic life.

Nationwide, pulp and paper mills are the largest source of chloroform, accounting for 75% of releases,
followed by the chemical and plastics industries. Chloroform is released as a by-product of the paper
bleaching process. A recent Public Health  Service report estimates the actual quantity of overall re-
leases of chloroform  is close to the values reported in TRI (which are  a combination of measured values
and estimate at various facilities.)

Sources of Information
EPA, America's Sea at Risk: First Progress  Report on  the Gulf of Mexico Program, 1990.
EPA. The 1989 Toxics Release Inventory National Report, 1991.
NOAA, Coastal Wetlands of the United States, 1991.
NOAA, 7776 1990 National Shellfish Register of Classified Estuarine Waters, 1990.
USFWS, Wetlands of the United States: Current Status and Recent Trends, 1984.
                                                                                     VI- 24

-------
   Figure  13a. The Pulp And Paper  Industry's Major Sources Of Toxic  Air
                      Pollution In The Gulf Of Mexico
   According to the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI), 9 mills in 1989 accounted for 46 percent of the pulp and paper industry's  air releases in
   the Gulf states of the 11 toxic chemicals graphed at the bottom of the page. These 11 chemicals are the moat hazardous of the 35 total
   chemicals released by the pulp and paper industry in the Gulf states, based on the toxicity and caroinogenioity information in the TRI Risk
   Screening Guide These figures include fugitive emissions and permitted  stack releases  A total of 19,221,722 pounds of these 11
   chemicals were released to all media by the pulp and paper  industry in the Gulf of Mexico states
         The Top 9 Big  Hitters
         Total releases to tie air of 11 to»c chemicals from fie 9 largest pulp and paper mill louices equals 8,276,381 pound*.

               • Shaded circles indicate facilities located in tie Mtuarme drainage areas (EDA) of Vie Gulf, as defined by NOAA.
                  Discharge* m EDA« wi* be mostdirecty transported to the Gulf. Discharges outside of EDAs may have less
                  direct effect on the Quit due to settling or chemical change of pollutants in transit through watersheds.
MANVILLE FOREST
            *SCOTT PAPER CO
                                                                           PULP 4 NEWS
                                                                       INTERNATIONAL PAPER
                                                                  O
                                                                   JAMES RIVER CORP ,__
                                                                                   ROCTEH & GAMBLE
         JAMES RIVER CORP NAHEOLAMILL
         PENNNGTON. AL
         INTERNATIONAL PAPER SELMA. AL

         TEMPLE-NLAND INC. PULPa
         PAPERBOAROOPERATIONS EVADALE. TX
         PROCTER & GAMBLE CELLULOSE
         PERRY. FL
         MANVILLE FOREST PRODUCTS
         CORP. PLANT 70 WEST MONROE.LA
         US PULP I, NEWSPRINT
         COOSA PINES. AL
         INTERNATIONAL PAPER
         TEXARKANA.TX
         SCOTT PAPER MOBILE. AL
         INTERNATIONAL PAPER
         MOBILE.  AL
                                                          1.880.X4


                                                                      1,000.000
                                                                                    1.400.000
                                                                                                 t.800,000   Pounds
                   CHLOROFORM
                       CHLORWE
                       ACETONE
               CHLORINE DIOXOE
                        TOLUENE
           METHYL ETHYL KETONE
          XYLENE (MIXED rSOMERS)
               DICHLOROME THANE
                  FORMALDEHYDE
         METHYL ISOBUTYL KETONE
                      CHROMIUM
     Total a* releases of tiese 11 chemicals from tie pulp and paper industry
     in tie Guff of Mexico states equals 18,019.764 pounds






                                      1.000.000   2.000.000   3.000.000    4.000.000    5.000.000   8000.000  Pound*
US EPA 1991 Tmo« R»l»a»« Invtrtefy. 1989
     vmal Rttutf md Fwecad-ng Branch/Oaobtr 1901

-------
 Figure 13b. The Pulp And Paper Industry's  Major Sources Of Toxic
                   Water Pollution  In The Gulf Of  Mexico

 According to the Toxic* Release Inventory (TRI), 9 mills in 1989 accounted for 48 percent of the pulp and paper industry's direct surface
 water releases of the 11 toxic chemicals graphed at the bottom of the page.  This group of 11 chemicals are the most hazardous of the 35
 total chemicals released by the pulp and paper industry in the Gulf states, baaed on the toxicity and carcinogenicity information in the TRI
 Risk Screening Guide A  total of 19,221,722 pounds of these 11 chemicals were released to all media by the pulp and paper industry in the
 Gulf of Mexico states. Direct releases to surface water accounted for only 2 percent of the total release of these chemicals   As shown in
 figure -- air releases accounted for 94 percent of the total (18,019,766 pounds).
             The Top 9 Big Hitters
             Total direct discharges to surface water of 11 tone chemicals from the 0 largest pulp and paper mill sources equals
             226,770 pound*.

             • Shaded circles indicate facilities located in the estuarme drainage areas (EDA) of the Gulf, as defined by NOAA.
                Discharges in EDAs will be most directly transported to the Gulf.  Discharges outside of EDAs may have less
                direct effect on the Gulf due to settling or chemical change of pollutants in transit through watersheds.
                                      INTERNATIONAL PAPER
                                                       ^	•	S JAMbt> MtVtM
                                                MANVILLE FOREST O  \CORP    Q
       MEAD COATED BOARD


ALABAMA RIVER PULP
                 MANVILLE FOREST PRODUCTS
                 CORP OUACHrTA, LA
                                               INTERNATIONAL PAPEI

                                            BOISE SOUTHERN ~  JAMES RIVER
                 SCOTT PAPER CO. MOBILE. AL

                 JAMES RIVER CORP NAHEOLA MILL
                 CHOCTAW, AL
                 MEAD COATED BOARD INC
                 RUSSELL. AL
                 BOISE SOUTHERN. DERIDDER MILL
                 BEAU REGARD. LA
                 NTERNATONAL PAPER. NATCHEZ
                 MILL. ADAMS. MS
                 INTERNATIONAL PAPER.
                 TEXARKANA  MILL. CASS. TX
                 ALABAMA RIVER PULP CO. INC
                 MONROE. AL
                 JAMES RIVER II KC . WEST. LA
                                              S.OOO  10,000   15.000 20,000  25.000  30,000 35.000  40.000 45,000 Pourtdt
                             ACETONE
                          CHLOROFORM
                        FORMALDEHYDE
                      DICHLOROMETHANE
                  XYLENE (MIXED ISOMER9
                             TOLUENE
                   METHYL ETHYL KETONE
                            CHROMIUM
                             CHLORINE
                      CHLORINE DIOXIDE
                 METHYL I9OBUTYL KETONE


• MOO
• 8.400
• 6.328
1 3.150
980
0

0

••54.400


Total direct releases to surface water of tiese 1 1



chemicals
from tie pulp and paper indusfry m the Gulf of Mexico states
equals 473.231 pounds



50.0OO 100.000 150.000 200,000




240.000
                                                                                                   Pounds
purer U.S. EPA 1888 Tgcct R
-------
VII. Cross Program Initiative
                       Biodiversity & Habitat Alteration

  RELATIVE RISK RANKING
                                       Human Health      Ecological       Welfare
       Unfinished Business Report          NR, cancer        High           Medium
                                       Low, non-cancer

       SAB Reducing Risk Report           NR              High           High

       Regional Comparative Risk           NR              High           NR

  PUBLIC CONCERN (CoC)
                                       1988             1990
       Wetlands                         Med-Low          Med-Low

  AGENCY INITIATIVES WITH STRONG CONNECTION

       • Agricultural Sector                • Pollution Prevention Legislation
       • Geographical Initiatives (all)        • Multimedia Enforcement
       • Core Research                   • Clean Water Act
Problem Definition

Causes of impairment to natural habitats include chemical and non-chemical stress agents. Non-chemi-
cal stress agents include physical modifications (such as mining, highway construction, channelization
and dams) and other sources of degradation (such as dumping of plastics and other litter). Effects on
undisturbed lands/habitats that result from nearby degradation (habitat fragmentation, migration path
blockage) are included in this problem area. EPA often has no regulatory authority over sources of
physical process while in other cases it may be able to influence them through the NEPA/EIS process.

Strategies

The agency addresses habitat issues through a variety of legislative authorities and program areas, how-
ever, mandates for habitat conservation lie principally with other federal agencies (particularly those with
land management responsibilities), or with state and local agencies.  EPA, therefore, must clearly define
its role in habitat issues and identify opportunities to incorporate habitat considerations into the larger
decision-making framework.

In response to the Science Advisory Board's finding that habitat alteration and loss is one of the nation's
highest risk problems, the agency has formed a Habitat Cluster with a primary goal of developing a se-
ries of short-, medium-, and long-term habitat-related strategic options for consideration by the agency.
These proposed options will initially focus on and support EPA's mission, however, ultimately these op-
tions will include ways in which the agency could better coordinate with other federal agencies to most
effectively address habitat issues.

The Cluster will identify critical issues, evaluate  ongoing efforts, define habitat protection in the context of
EPA's legislated mission, and identify opportunities for habitat conservation. These issues and habitat-

                                                    U.S. EPA Headquarters U r_ y
                                                           Mail code 3201      '     VII-1
                                                    1200 Pennsylvania Avenue MW
                                                       Washington  DC 20460

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

EPA's legislated mission, and identify opportunities for habitat conservation. These issues and habitat-
related strategic options will incorporate risk-based approaches whenever possible.
One of the first tasks of the Cluster will be identifying the scope of habitat problems and assessing au-
thorities (EPA and other agencies) available to address them. The Cluster assess the baseline risk and
sources of risk and identify the available "levers" for each of a series of topics.  Issue papers will identify
the resource base and sources of stress, determine trends in habitat loss (including socio-economic
factors), describe the ecological and economic values of habitat, and outline applications to programs
and policies. Opportunities for habitat conservation that are being examined include risk-based geo-
graphic targeting, restoration, education/outreach, public/private partnerships, incentives, acquisition/
easements, and regulatory and non-regulatory programs.

In the Spring of 1992 a series of draft strategic options will be prepared. During the Summer 1992, a
workshop will be convened at which these draft options will be critiqued and redrafted with input from a
broad spectrum of scientists  and decision makers. A set of habitat-related strategic options will then be
presented to the Administrator and Deputy Administrator in Fall 1992.
 Environmental Indicator  Results


 Declines in  North American  Duck Populations

 The number of breeding ducks in North America has dropped 34%, from 39 million in 1955 to 26 million
 in 1991. The 1991 spring breeding population of ducks was 19% below the long-term average from
 1955 to 1991.  Long term increases and decreases in duck populations are tied to the cycle of drought
 in the prairie pothole region of the U.S. and Canadian plains. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service expects
 some rebound in duck populations as rainfall returns to normal after the drought of the 1980s. But in-
 creased agricultural conversion in the prairie pothole region during the drought may have caused per-
 manent habitat loss. Several species of North American ducks have suffered serious population de-
 clines during the 1970s and 1980s, such as mallard, American widgeon, blue-winged teal, northern pin-
 tail, and redhead.

 Declining Habitats
 Researchers believe that the declines are due mostly to the loss of wetland breeding  habitat, particularly
 in the northern U.S. and Canada. Wetlands loss is primarily due to a combination of drought and agri-
 cultural practices. Losses of wintering and flyway habitats have occurred as well.
 Prairie Pothole Region:  About one half of North American duck populations breed in the wetlands of the
 prairie potholes of the northern high plains of the United States and Canada. However, wetlands in
 much of this region have been drained for farming, including 95% of the wetlands in Iowa, 60% of the
 wetlands in North Dakota, 53% of wetlands in Minnesota, and 35% of wetlands in South Dakota. Recent
 drought caused the loss of natural water sources and led to the diversion and use of the remaining water
 for farming. During the drought of the 1980s, wetlands decreased by 40% in the prairie pothole region.
 Atlantic Flyway: 50% of the coastal wetlands on the Atlantic Flyway have been lost since the 1953.
 Lower Mississippi Valley: 200,000 to 300,000 acres of bottomland hardwood wetlands have been
 cleared each year since the late  1930s.
 Southwest Oil Producing Areas:  The Fish and Wildlife Service estimated that pits and ponds used for
 storing oil  industry wastes were responsible for killing 500,000 migratory ducks in 1989. Flying birds are
 attracted to uncovered oil pits, mistaking them for fresh water.
  VII-2

-------
                                                                  BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

California's Central Valley: Half of the ducks that migrate along the Pacific flyway overwinter in the Cen-
tral Valley which originally contained 4 million acres of wetlands.  Because of urban and agricultural de-
velopment, only 280,000 acres of wetlands remain. Less than half are protected in state and federal
wildlife refuges. Moreover, wetlands have decreased throughout the Central Valley during the drought of
the past five years as water has been diverted for irrigation. Due to irrigation, naturally occurring selenium
is leaching from the soil, causing severe reproductive affects in areas such as the Kesterson Wildlife Refuge.
Additional stresses, such as acid rain and pollution, may degrade remaining habitats and further reduce
the reproductive success of ducks.  Overcrowding from habitat loss increases the spread of disease. Out-
breaks of avian botulism in western North America have killed tens of thousands of ducks in a few months.

Sources of Information

Information on trends in duck populations comes from ongoing studies by the U.S. and Wildlife Service
in cooperation with the Canadian Wildlife Service.  The Status of Waterfowl and Fall Flight Forecast and
Trends In Duck Breeding Populations reports are compiled from multiple sources and have been pro-
duced annually since 1955.
                                                                                        VII-3

-------
a
i
*
 Figure 1.    Declining Ducks in North America
 The number of breeding ducks in North America has dropped 34%, from 39 million in 1955, to 31 million in 1991. The 1991 spring breeding population of ducks was
 10% below the long-term average from 1955 to 1991. Researchers believe that the declines are due mostly to the loss of wetlands in the northern U.S. and Canada
 caused by drought and agricultural practices. Several species of North American ducks have suffered significant population declines in recent years, such as mal-
 lard, American widgeon, blue-winged teal, northern pintail and redhead.  Acid rain has also harmed ducks by releasing naturally occurring metals into streams and
 lakes that can bioaccumulate in aquatic food chains.  Overcrowding from habitat loss increases the spread of disease. Outbreaks of avian botulism in western North
 America have killed tens of thousands of ducks and other waterfowl in a few months.
                                                                           Prairie Potholes (Approximate Area)
                                                                           Agricultural filling and drought caused the loss of 40% of the
                                                                           prairie potholes during the 1980s, resulting in extreme crowding
                                                                           and increased disease. Waterfowl breeding habitat has
                                                                           decreased by 90% in Iowa and 50% in North Dakota.
                                                                                                                                Atlantic Flyway
                                                                                                                                About 50% of the
                                                                                                                                coastal wetlands
                                                                                                                                have been destroyed
                                                                                                                                since the early 1950s
                  Southwest OH Producing Areas (Approximate Area)
                  Pits and ponds used for storing oil industry wastes were
                  responsible for killing an estimated 500,000 migratory
                  waterfowl in 1989 atone. Flying birds are attracted to
                  uncovered oil pits, mistaking them for fresh water.
                                                                                                 Lower Mississippi Valley
                                                                                            200,000 to 300,000 acres of bottomland
                                                                                            hardwood wetlands have been cleared each
                                                                                            year since the late 1930s.
           California's Central Valley
           Half of the ducks that migrate
           along the Pacific flyway winter
           over in the Central Valley which
           originally contained 4 million
           acres of wetlands. Because of
           urban and agricultural
           development, only 280,000
           acres of wetlands remain.
           Wetlands have decreased
           throughout the Central Valley
           during the drought of the past
           five years as water has been
           diverted for irrigation.  Due to
           irrigation, naturally occurring
           selenium is leaching from the
           soil, causing severe
           reproductive affects in areas
           such as the Kesterton Wildlife
           Refuge.
Source: Multiple sources compiled by the Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch and published in Identification of Biological
       Indicators of Environmental Quality, 1991.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
      Figure 2.   The 1991 Spring Duck Breeding Population was 19% Below the Long-Term Average from
                    1955-1990
      This graph shows aggregate population estimates for the 18 duck species surveyed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). The area surveyed encompasses
      the prairie pothole region of the U.S. and Canada. Seabirds. such as eiders, that nest in northern arctic areas are not included in the survey. The 18 duck species
      surveyed represent about two-thirds of the total number of ducks in the survey area. USFWS experts conclude that the marked decrease in abundance in the early
      1960s and at present are due to decreases in the wetland habitat the ducks require for breeding. Wetland areas particularly in the prairie pothole region, have been
      diminished by a combination of drought and agricultural practices. The USFWS Office of Migratory Bird Management is concerned that the high degree of physical
      destruction of wetlands will prevent full recovery of the duck populations when the current drought is over.
           45 -r
           40 --
           15 --
           10 --
            5 --
                                                                                                      Data quality; Moderate;
                                                                                                      survey techniques well
                                                                                                      standardized but some
                                                                                                      Inconsistencies may remain.

                                                                                                      Relevance to EPA program;
                                                                                                      Moderate.
                                                                 Approximate years of drought
                                                                                                                                        CD
                                                                                                                                        O
                                                                                                                                        g

                                                                                                                                        i
                                                                                                                                        w
                                                                                                                                              fio
             1955             1960             1965             1970            1975

      Source: U.S. Rsh and Wildlife Service, Office of Migratory Bird Management, 1991 Revised Estimates.
                                                                                          1980
1985
1991
                                                                                                                                        5
Ol
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Figure 3.   The Number of Ponds in the Canadian and U.S. Prairie Potholes
              Region Continues to Decline

Canada, which provides the majority of wetlands used by breeding waterfowl in North America, has re-
cently had a 29% loss in prairie  ponds compared with the average over the past 30 years. The prairie
potholes region in the U.S., with a smaller portion of waterfowl breeding habitat, has recently had a 41 %
loss compared with the past 16  years. The causes of pond loss are a combination of drought, which
leads to ponds drying out, and agricultural practices in which shallow dry ponds are plowed over,  result-
ing in a net loss of ponds when  rainfall returns to normal.
                          -41
                                                              Total Northern U.S.
                                                              Prairie
                                                              South Dakota
                                                                         North Dakota

                                                                       1 Montana
                                                                         Total Southern
                                                                         Canadian Prairie

                                                                         Southern Manitoba

                                                                         Southern Saskatchewan

                                                                         Southern Alberta
 -70
-60
 % Change from the Long-Term Average in the Number of Ponds Counted in May 1990, and May 1991
               Long-term trend for Canadian prairie is measured from 1961 to 1990

               Long-term trend for U.S. prairie is measured from 1974 to 1990
 Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1991.  Trends in Duck Breeding Populations, 1955- 1991.
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
  VII -6

-------
                                                                BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Declines in  North  American Migrant Bird Species

According to the National Breeding Bird Survey, conducted annually since 1966 by the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service, there was a 71% decline in neotropical migrant birds during the 1980s. The term
neotropical refers to new world species that nest in temperate areas of North America and winter in tropi-
cal and subtropical areas of the Caribbean and Central and South America.

Reasons for Declines
There is increasing evidence that forest fragmentation, caused by the steady encroachment of suburban
development in the U.S., is responsible for reducing the breeding success of migrant songbirds that
nest in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation creates edge conditions that favor predators, like raccoons,
squirrels, and domestic cats, and nest parasite bird species, such as cowbirds and cuckoos.
Parasitic bird species are probably the strongest threat.  Many neotropical migrant bird populations are
being reduced by black-headed cowbird parasitism. In some areas virtually all nests of a neotropical
migrant species have been  parasitized. Cowbirds lay their eggs in the nests of neotropical migrant spe-
cies, such as warblers. The cowbird fledglings are larger and more aggressive than the warbler chicks
and thus able to take more of the food brought by adult warblers. A recent study in Illinois, for example,
showed that wood thrushes in one  area are almost entirely raising cowbird chicks. Brown-headed cow-
birds have increased sharply in numbers and geographic range in the U.S. since the turn of the century.
The percent of Audubon Christmas Bird Count records that include the cowbirds has risen from less
than 1 % in 1900 to over 80% by 1980.
Researchers disagree on the extent to which tropical deforestation of winter habitat may be contributing
to declining neotropical migrant bird  populations.  Nevertheless, North American forest fragmentation,
combined with continuing tropical deforestation, is likely to cause continued declines in neotropical mi-
grant bird populations.

Table 1.  44 Species of  Neotropical Migrant Birds Declined During the 1980s
A total of 62 species of neotropical migrant birds are included in the Breeding Bird Survey. 44 species
declined  in abundance between 1978 and 1987:
                       Cape May warbler                Broad-winged hawk
                       Black-throated green warbler       Black-billed cuckoo
                       Blackburnian warbler              Yellow-billed cuckoo
                       Yellow-throated warbler           Chuck-will's-widow
                       Prairie warbler                   Whip-poor-will
                       Bay-breasted warbler             Olive-sided flycatcher
                       Blackpoll warbler                Eastern wood-pewee
                       Cerulean warbler                 Acadian flycatcher
                       American redstart                Great crested flycatcher
                       Worm-eating warbler              Veery
                       Ovenbird                       Swainson's thrush
                       Louisiana waterthrush             Wood thrush
                       Kentucky warbler                Gray catbird
                       Morning warbler                 White-eyed vireo
                       Common yellowthroat             Solitary vireo
                       Wi Ison's warbler                 Yellow-throated vireo
                       Canada warbler                  Blue-winged warbler
                       Summer tanager                 Golden-winged warbler
                       Rose-breasted grosbeak           Northern parula
                       Indigo bunting                   Chestnut-sided warbler
                       Northern oriole
Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. North American Breading Bird Survey. 1990.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

                                                                                     VII-7

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION
Figure 4.    Migration of Neotropical Songbirds

Neotropical migrant songbirds leave their breeding grounds in the United States and Canada to winter in
subtropical and tropical areas of Central and South America.
  Source: Greenberg, R. 1989. Wandering Warblers: The Future of Many of Our Migratory Birds Depends on Conservation Action South of
  	the Border. Zoogoer 1989: 8-11.	
  Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
  VII-8

-------
     Figure 5.   Neotropical Migrant Songbirds Have Recently Declined in Abundance After a Period of

                    Stable or Increasing Populations
     These graphs show trends for the 62 eastern populations of neotropical migrant bird species assessed in the National Breeding Bird Survey, which has been con-
     ducted annually since 1966 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The term neotropical refers to new world species that nest in temperate areas of North America and
     winter in tropical and subtropical areas of the Caribbean and Central and South America.
                    Annual Perctnt Chang* from KM to 1878
                                                                                                   Annual Percent Chang* from 1978 to 1987
•••••I Black-billed Cuckoo
(^•••H
••••
—
"J
I
I

































-5
Percent Decreas
Chuck-wil'a-wfdow
Black-throated Blue Warbler
American Redstart
Solitary Vlreo
Northern Oriole
Swainson'a Thrush
Least Flycatcher
Golden-winged Warbler
SwalnWs Warbler
Bay-breasted Warbler
Yellow-breasted Chat
Blue-winged Warbler
Common Yetowthroat
Scarlet Tanager
Oven bird
Orchard Oriole
Slue Grosbeak
Tennessee Warbler
Louisiana Waterthnnh
Great Crested Flycatcher
Yellow-throated Warbler
Yellow-throated Vlreo
Prairie Warbler
Magnolia Warbler
V«lta*uLH«lliA/4 f*iu»k(v%
YeiiovrDeiiieo UUCKOO
Acadian Flycatcher
While-eyed Vireo
Red-eyed Vireo
Rose-breasted Grosbeak
Prothonotary Warbler
Blue-grey Qnatcatcher
Philadelphia Vireo
HoodedWaifcter
Nashvlle Warbler
Canada Warbler
Eastern Wood Pewee
Yellow Warbler
Black-and-white Warbler
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher
Wocnveating Warbler
Ruby-throated Hummingbird
Grey Catbird
WIson's Warbler
Warbling Vireo
Blaokbumlan Warbler
Kentucky Warbler
Broad-winged Hawk
Indigo Bunting
Black-throated Green Warbler











i
i
[
t
t
i
•

• Data quality; Mod
• techniques standi
™ make highly precl
p^Bf
HZ Relevance to proa
™ to low.
••1
•^•1
•VH
s-
•^•••g
•^•^•BJ
•MHM
••••••
•••WH
•••••••I
•••^••••M
Wood Thrush LBHHBBBBB
BlackpoU Warbler imm^^mim
Cerulean Warbler I»»BB»B»BB»B»™
Chestnut-sided Warbler IBBBBBBB^H
Olive-sided Flycatcher
Northern Panila
Whip-poor-will
Summer Tanager
Northern Waterthrush
Cape May Warbler
Mourning Warbler
)
e

) 5 10 15 20
Percent increase













i
1
i
i
i

erate; survey •
irdized, but hard to !
se. *
•^
irams; Moderate Z
55
1BJ
••
••1
S
•mi
•^BBI
••mi
MBj^l
•••••
••••1
••••••1
BHHB^Bl
•••^•^•1
BB^^^^^H
•••••^H
Northern Waterthrush
Yellow-belled Flycatcher
Nashville Warbler
Blue Grosbeak
Ruby-throated Hummingbird
Black-throated Blue Warbler
Yellow Warbler
Blue-grey Qnatcatcher
Black-and-White Warbler
Yellow-breasted Chat
Prothonotary WarWer
Orchard Oriole
Hooded Warbler
Warbling Vireo
Philadelphia Vlreo
Red-eyed Vireo
Common VeDowthroat
Magnolia Warbler
Swalrraon's WarWer
Solitary Vlreo
Least Flycatcher
Swalnson's Thrush
Great Crested Flycatcher
Louisiana Waterthrush
Yellow-throated Warbler
Prairie Warbler
Eastern Wood Pewee
Indigo Bunting
Whip-poor-wi
Summer Tanager
Broad-winged Hawk
Yellow-throated Vlreo
Cerulean Warbler
Ovenbird
Blue-winged Warbler
Blackbumian Warbler
White-eyed Vireo
American Redstart
Scarlet Tanager
Acadian Flycatcher
Grey Catbird
Kentucky WarMer
Mourning Warbler
Golden-winged Warbler
Worm-eating Warbler
Chuck-will's-wldow
Northern Parula
Cape May Warbler
Veery
Canada Warbler
Northern Oriole
Black-throated Green Warbler
Chestnut-sided Warbler
Wood Thrush
Rose-breasted Grosbeak
••^•••M Yeltow^led Cuckoo
•••••••••••I Olive-sided Ftycatcher
••MM^BiMH Black-bJled Cuckoo
•••••^••H BlackpoU WarWer
mmt^ammmmmi Wilson's Warbler
-15 -10 -5 0 (
Percent Decrease
=— —
•••••1
ST*
™
E?
•V
i
i
































i i
5 10
Percent Increase
                                                                                                                                               go

                                                                                                                                               O
                                                                                                                                               g
                                                                                                                                               X
                                                                                                                                               CD

                                                                                                                                               I
                                                                                                                                               >

                                                                                                                                               m
(0
Source: Bobbins, C.S. J.R., and Greenberg, R.S. et al. 1989. Population Declines in North American Birds that Migrate to the Neotroplcs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,

	86: 7658-7662.	

Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Figure 6.   Cowbirds, the Principal Parasitic Bird Species in North
             America, Have Increased Sharply in Numbers and Geographic
             Range

Many neotropical migrant bird populations are being reduced by the brown-headed cowbird. Cowbirds
lay their eggs in the nests of other birds. They are primarily restricted to nests near the edges of forests
so their access to other birds' nests is greatly increased by fragmentation of forests due to development.
The cowbird fledglings are larger and more aggressive than the hosts' chicks and take more of the food,
causing high mortality of the other chicks. A recent study in Illinois, for example, showed that wood
thrushes in one area are almost entirely raising cowbird chicks.
                      80 -
                       60 - -
   Percent of Audubon
   Christmas Bird Count   40
   Reporting Cowbirds
                       20 - -
                        0 --
  Data quality! not
  evaluated.
                                1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
                         This graph shows an approximate trend line based on a scatter plot of the data.
  Source: Brittingham M.C.. and Temple. SA1983. Have Cowbirds Caused Forest Songbirds to Decline? BloSclence 33:31-35.
  Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
  VII -10

-------
                                                              BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

North American Fish  Extinctions and Declines

Freshwater fish extinctions in the U.S. have been increasing at steady rate since 1900. Moreover, 13 of
the 32 extinct taxa in the U.S. have disappeared since the enactment of the Endangered Species Act in
1966. According to the American Fisheries Society (AFS), 10% of the native species of freshwater fish in
North America are facing extinction.  Another 25% are either endangered or could easily become endan-
gered.  Of approximately 1,000 species and subspecies of freshwater fish in North America, the AFS
lists 103 as endangered (facing extinction in all or a significant portion of their range),  114 as threatened
(likely to become endangered in the near future), and 147 of,special concern (minor disturbances to
their habitat could place them in danger).
Several regions have lost a substantial proportion of their native fish fauna, including the Great Lakes
(three species and two subspecies),  the Great Basin of Nevada and Utah (one species and six subspe-
cies), and the Rio Grande (two species and two subspecies), and the southwest desert areas. The min-
now family (Cyprinidae) has lost more taxa (16) than any other family of fishes, and salmonids (trout) and
cyprinodontids (killifishes) have each lost 7 taxa.

Declining Trend in the Health Of Fish Populations
The AFS warns that the  health of North American freshwater fish species continues to decay. Since the
AFS began listing the status of fish species in 1979, ten have been removed because they have become
extinct.  In 1989 the AFS listed 113 new taxa and found that not a single fish warranted removal from the
original 1979 list. During the 1980s, 7 species improved in status, while 24 species declined.  The AFS
concludes that a major commitment to the conservation of entire ecosystems, rather than inconsistent
recovery efforts for individual species, is needed to reverse this trend.

Reasons for the Decline
Multiple factors are believed to be responsible for declining populations and extinctions of freshwater
fish in North America, including  habitat destruction, introduced  species (including game fish manage-
ment), hybridization, pollution, overfishing, acidification, and disease. However, the AFS considers habi-
tat destruction and modification, from channelization, dams, and diversions for agriculture, mining, in-
dustry, and urban development, to be the most pervasive threat.
                                                                                  VII-11

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Figure 7.   32 Species and Subspecies of Fish Have Become Extinct in the
             United States Since 1900

This graph shows the cumulative number of fish species and subspecies that have become extinct in the
U.S. since 1900. The minnow family, Cyprinidae, has lost the most members. The most common causes
of extinction are habitat loss, introduced species, pollution and overfishing.  Thirteen of the 32 extinct
taxa have disappeared since the enactment of the Endangered Species Act in 1966.  Of approximately
1,000 species and subspecies of freshwater fish in North America, the American Fisheries Society lists
103 as endangered (facing extinction in all or a significant portion of their range), 114 as threatened
(likely to become endangered in the near future), and 147 of special concern (minor disturbances to
their habitat could place them in danger).
               40T
               35--
               30--
 Cumulative
 Number of
 Species and
 Subspecies
25--



20--



15--



10--


 5--
                                                                       13 species have
                                                                       become extinct since
                                                                       the Endangered
                                                                       Species Act was
                                                                       passed in 1966
                  1890  1900  1910  1920  1930  1940  1950 1960 1970  1980  1990
 Source: Miller. R.R.. Williams. J.E. 1989. Extinctions of North American Fishes During tha Past Century, fisheries 14:22-38.
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
  VII -12

-------
       Figure 8.    32 Species and Subspecies off Fish  Have Become Extinct in the United States During the
                        Twentieth Century
       Habitat destruction, introduced species, pollution, and over fishing are the most common causes of extinction.  Several regions have lost a substantial propor-
       tion of their native fish fauna, including the Great Lakes (three species and two subspecies), the Great Basin (one species and six subspecies), and the Rio
       Grande (two species and two Subspecies).
       5.  Utah Lake Sculpin (1928)
          Utah Lake, UT

       7.  June Sucker (19351
          Utah Lake, UT

       8.  Alvord Cutthroat Trout (19401
          Trout Creek, OR & Virgin Creek, NY

       11. Lake Miller Lamprey (19531
          Klamath County, OR

       32. High Rocks Springs Tui Chub 11989)
          Honey Lake Basin, Lassen County, CA

       23. Clear Lake Splittall M9701
          Lake County, CA

       15. Thicktail Chub (19571
          Central Valley, CA

       25. TecopaPupfish(1971l
          Inyo County, CA
                                                                                  Snake River Sucker (19281
                                                                                  Jackson Lake, WY
                                                                                                                 GREAT LAKES
                                                                              27. Yellowfin Cutthroat Trout (19101
                                                                                 Lake County, CO
                                                                                              30. San Marcos Gambusia (19831
                                                                                                 Hayes County, TX
                                                                                              27. Amistad Gambusia f 1973J
                                                                                                 Val Verde County, TX
                                                                                              17. Maravillas Red Shiner M9601
                                                                                                 Big Band Area, TX
                                                                                              19. Rio Grande Bluntnose Shiner M9641
                                                                                                 Rio Grande. TX: NM
               10. Grass Valley Speckled Dace (195O1
                  Lander County, NY

               16. Pahrumo Ranch Poolfish (19581
                  Nye County, NV

               18. Ravcrafl Ranch Pooltish (19601
                  Pahrump Valley. NV

               9.  Pahranaqat Spinedace (19401
                  Pahranagat Valley, NV

               14. Las Vegas Dace (19551
                  Las Vegas, NV

               12. Ash Meadows Poolfish (19531
                  Ash Meadows, NV

               22. Independence Valley Tui Chub (19701
                  Elko County, NV

               26. Monkey Spring Pupfish (19711
                  Santa Cruz County, AR
                                                                                              28. Phantom Shiner (19751
                                                                                                 Rio Grande, TX; NM
13. Deeowater Cisco (19551
20. Lake Ontario Kiyi (19671
21. Blackfin Cisco (19691
24. Blue Rke (1970^
29. Lonoiaw Cisco (1Q7fll
                                                                                                                                 Silver Trout (193O1
                                                                                                                                 Dublin Pond, Christine Lake, NH
                                                                                                                              31. Maryland Darter (19891
                                                                                                                                 Chesapeake Tributaries
                                                                                                                         	   3.
                                                                                                                                 Harelip Sucker (19101
                                                                                                                                 GA; TN; OH, AL; VA; KY; IN
                                                                                                                                    1.  Whiteline Topminnow (19001
                                                                                                                                       Spring Creek at Huntsville, AL
i
•*
CO
Source:  Miller, R.R., Williams, J.D., and Williams, J.E. 1989.  Extinctions of North American Fishes During the Past Century.  Fisheries 14:22-38.
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
                               :

                               D
                               •

                               :
                               -
                               -,.

                               3

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION
Figure 9.   36% of the Freshwater Fish Taxa in North America are Either
              Endangered, Threatened, or of Special Concern
Of approximately 1,000 species and subspecies of freshwater fish in North America, the American Fish-
eries Society list 103 as endangered (facing extinction in all or a significant portion of their range), 114
as threatened (likely to become endangered in the near future), and 147 of special concern (minor dis-
turbances to their habitat could place them in danger).
 North
 American
 Freshwater
 Fish Families
       Minnow
         Perch
        Killifish
         Trout
        Sucker
Bullhead Catfish
       Sculpin
       Sunfish
      Sturgeon
     Livebearer
         Gobie
      Cavefish
         Smelt
      Lamprey
     Stickleback
      Silverside
    Mudminnow
     Paddlefish
      Surfperch
       Sleeper
                          Endangered = 103 Taxa
                          Threatened = 114 Taxa
                       D Special Concern = 147 Taxa
                                               Data quality;  Moderate; involves combining
                                               results of numerous independent studies.
                                               Relevance to EPA program: Moderate.
10       20      30       40       50       60
           Number of Species and Subspecies
                                                                                     70
                                                                                   i
                                                                                   80
 Source: Williams, J.E., Johnson. J.E., and Hendrickson. D.A.. et al. 1989.  Fisheries of North America, Endangered. Threatened, or of
 	Special Concern: 1989. Fisheries 14:2-20.	
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
 Vff - 14

-------
                                                                    BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION
Figure 10. Nevada, California, and Tennessee Have the Highest Number of
              Fish Species Endangered, Threatened, or of Special Concern
Freshwater fish species classified by the American Fisheries Society as endangered, threatened, or of
special concern in each state.
             Nevada
            California
           Tennessee
            Alabama
             Oregon
              Texas
             Arizona
        North Carolina
             Virginia
             Georgia
          New Mexico
            Arkansas
            Kentucky
           Mississippi
            Missouri
              Illinois
            Louisiana
               Utah
             Florida
             Indiana
            New York
           Oklahoma
            Colorado
             Kansas
         West Virginia
               Ohio
         Pennsylvania
        South Carolina
           Wisconsin
            Wyoming
               Iowa
            Michigan
           Minnesota
            Montana
            Nebraska
               Idaho
         North Dakota
         South Dakota
              Hawaii
            Maryland
          Washington
              Maine
          Connecticut
            Delaware
        Massachusetts
       New Hampshire
          New Jersey
         Rhode Island
            Vermont
             Alaska
            I    I Special Concern
                 Threatened

               I Endangered
  Data quality! Moderate; involves combining
  results of numerous independent studies.
  Relevance to EPA program: Moderate.
                                 10
20
30
                                                                 35
45
                                            Number of Species
Source: Williams, J.E., Johnson, J.E., and Hendrickson, D.A., et al. 1989. Fisheries of North America, Endangered, Threatened, or of
	Special Concern: 1989. Fisheries 14:2-20.	
Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
                                                                                        VII - 15

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Figure 11.  Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico Have the Highest Proportion
               Per River Mile of Fish Species Endangered, Threatened, or of
               Special Concern

Proportion of freshwater fish species per 1,000 river miles classified by the American Fisheries Society
as endangered, threatened, or of special concern.
        Hawaii
       Nevada
    New Mexico
      Delaware
   Rhode Island
     Tennessee
      Arkansas
      California
       Arizona
       Georgia
      Kentucky
          Utah
        Illinois
     Mississippi
  South Carolina
        Florida
      Louisiana
        Virginia
      Alabama
        Kansas
       Missouri
   North Carolina
      Oklahoma
   South Dakota
        Indiana
    North Dakota
      Wyoming
          Iowa
       Vermont
    West Virginia
     New Jersey
          Idaho
         Texas
       Colorado
        Oregon
   Massachusetts
      Nebraska
     Connecticut
       Maryland
       Michigan
      Wisconsin
          Ohio
    Pennsylvania
  New Hampshire
       New York
       Montana
     Washington
          Maine
      Minnesota
         Alaska
                                                                                              11.5
                       I   I Special Concern
                           Threatened
                           Endangered
                        Data quality; Moderate; involves combining
                        results of numerous independent studies.

                        Relevance to EPA program; Moderate.
                     t-
I
                    0.5      1      1.5     2      2.5     3

                        Number of species per 1,000 river miles
                                I.!
  Source: Williams, J.E., Johnson, J.E., and Hendrickson, D.A., et al. 1989. Fisheries of North America, Endangered, Threatened, or of
  	Special Concern: 1989.  Rsheries 14:2-20.	

  Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
  VII - 16

-------
                                                              BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION


Conditions in Coral  Reef Communities Worldwide

A number of coral reefs worldwide are dying through a process known as bleaching. Some researchers
believe that worldwide bleaching events are occurring in response to elevated water temperatures that
might be associated with a global warming trend.  Others feel that inadequate information is available on
the extent of coral bleaching in the past to know for sure that its frequency is increasing. The current
extent of coral bleaching is believed by many to be an appropriate baseline measure of marine ecosys-
tem health against which to compare future conditions.
Coral bleaching occurs when the corals lose or expel a majority of the zooxanthellae algae that live sym-
biotically in coral tissues. The coral provide shelter for the algae which in turn supply the coral with nutri-
ents. As photosymbiotic species, corals are adapted to a narrow range of temperature and light condi-
tions, which makes them particularly sensitive to disturbance.
Coral bleaching incidents are frequently associated with sea surface temperatures that are higher than
average. Such sea surface temperature anomalies occur worldwide as part of a natural fluctuation of
ocean/atmosphere conditions called the "El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)." (This name comes from
the South American term "El Nifto" for this event, which frequently reaches peak ocean temperature dis-
turbance there at Christmas time, the festival for "El Nino," the baby Jesus.) The concern of many scien-
tists is that the frequency or intensity of ENSO events and associated coral  bleaching may be increasing.
The number of areas with known coral bleaching in the ENSO events of 1979-80,1982-83,1986-87, and
1989-90 are shown in Figures 12-15. The incidence has increased. However, it is possible that fewer
researchers were looking out for or reporting bleaching events in the earlier time period. A more consis-
tent worldwide approach to monitor this potential global  warming indicator is strongly recommended by
marine biologists and may be accomplished through international coordination of research and monitoring.
                                                                                  VII-17

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Figure 12.  Areas of Coral  Reef Bleaching 1979 - 1980
 Florida Keys
 Caribbean
       Easter Island
I Ryukyu Islands
             •
       Enewetak Atoll


       Great Barrier Reef
 Source: Glynn, P.W. 1991.  Coral Reef Bleaching in the 1980s and Possible Connections with Global Warming. Trends in Ecological
 	Evolution. 6:175-17	
 Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
  VII - 18

-------
                                                                       BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

 Figure 13.  Areas of Coral Reef Bleaching 1982 - 1983
            Isla del Coco

      Galapagos Islands

gTokelau Islands

        B Society Islands
Great Earner Reef
  Source: Glynn, P.W. 1991.  Coral Reef Bleaching in the 1980s and Possible Connections with Global Warming. Trends in Ecological
  	Evolution. 6:175-17	
  Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
                                                                                            VII - 19

-------
  BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

  Figure 14.  Areas of Coral Reef Bleaching 1986 - 1987
ST  •*•
 f
Fp Islands
    BTonga
                Isla del Coco

          Galapagos Islands
           .Society Islands
                                                                                 Maldive Island
                                                                                    Andaman Island
   Source: Glynn, P.W. 1991.  Coral Reef Bleaching in the 1980s and Possible Connections with Global Warming. Trends in Ecological
   	Evolution. 6:175-17	
   Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
    VII - 20

-------
                                                                        BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

  Figure  15.  Areas of Coral Reef Bleaching 1989 - 1990
Hawaiian
 Islands
 Flower
Gaidens
••»
  Source:  Glynn, P.W. 1991.  Coral Reef Bleaching in the 1980s and Possible Connections with Global Warming. Trends in Ecological
  	Evolution. 6:175-17   	
  Environmental Results and Forecasting Branch/1991
                                                                                             VII - 21

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

EMAP  Forest Results:  New England Pilot

The New England Forest Health Monitoring (NEFHM) and demonstration projects were conducted in
1990. The project was implemented in 6 New England states with cooperative efforts of the EPA, U.S.
Department of Agriculture-Forest Service and the six state foresters. Monitoring was conducted at 204
sites as prescribed by the EMAP design. Growth efficiency and visual symptoms were the response
indicators selected for the project.  Individual measurements that comprise these indicators are believed
to be reliable indicators of forest health. In addition, these indicators can be associated with environ-
mental stresses such as air pollution. Specific objectives of the NEFHM project were:
     • characterization of forest conditions;
     • characterization of the major potential forest stressors;
     • quantification of condition changes;
     • analysis of relationship between changes in conditions and potential stresses.
Five indicator groups were measured: growth, foliage symptomology, soil chemistry, foliar chemistry,
and landscape characterization. Measurements will be made and indicators characterized on a periodic
basis; annually for those that change frequently (for example, foliar symptomology) and on a 4-year or
greater cycle for those that change less frequently (for example, soil chemistry).
Data were collected on the geographic and topographic position and physiographic description of the
location; diameter, crown position and condition, damage; other vegetation; and foliar symptoms.

Tree Crown Ratings
Each sampled tree (conifers and hardwood) was rated for crown characteristics: crown dieback, foliage
transparency and discoloration, and needle retention.  These ratings are only for trees with crowns di-
rectly exposed to the atmosphere.

Crown Dieback

Crown dieback is defined as branch mortality beginning at the outside tip of the branch and proceeding
inward toward the trunk. This pattern is an indicator of premature branch death. Ninety six percent of all up-
per canopy trees had none-to-light crown dieback, with hardwoods having greater dieback than conifers.
More than 13% of the American beech sampled had crown dieback greater than 20%. The cause cannot yet
be specified. A possible reason is the beech bark disease complex which is well established in New England.

 Foliage Transparency
 Foliage transparency serves as an estimator of  defoliation as a result of insect damage, pathogens, or
 environmental stress. It is the amount of skylight visible through the foliated portion of a tree crown. Ap-
 proximately 96% of all the exposed tree crowns had "normal" transparency levels. Severe foliage trans-
 parency were found only for the yellow birch, American beech and northern red oak.

 Foliage Discoloration and Needle  Retention
 Foliage is considered discolored when the overall appearance is noticeably yellow, red, or brown.  How-
 ever, to be tallied, more than 50% of the foliage part must be discolored.  Needle retention is the number
 of years needles are retained by a conifer and is used as an indication of tree vigor. The 1990 field
 study provided no indication of tree health concerns for foliage discoloration or needle retention.

 Signs and Symptoms

 Significant signs and symptoms indicative of previous injury, disease or insects were not found in the
 1990 study. Symptoms of ozone exposure were found in 10% of the area and symptoms of sulfur diox-
 ide exposure in 3% of the area.


  VII-22

-------
                                                              BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

20/20 Pilot Study

The 20/20 pilot study was an indicator evaluation project and had two main objectives: (1) to determine
whether full suites of indicators can be sampled on each site and (2) to determine the statistical variabil-
ity for each indicator. Data were collected on sites in the Southeast (the Virginia loblolly pines) and the
Northeast (New England hardwoods).

Rve Indicators of forest health selected for this project were:
  • growth efficiency
  • vertical vegetation structure (related to wildlife habitat)
  • foliar nutrients
  • visual symptoms of air pollution
  • soil productivity

EMAP-Forest Results - 1990 Summary
  • General conditions of forest in the New England Region was better than expected. Widespread
    forest damage was not detected. Less than 4% of trees sampled showed signs of dieback.
  • A major stressor on New England forests was insect attack.

  • The effects on the New England forest of acid rain, especially sulfur dioxide, are less severe and
    more localized than many predictions.  More data from forests and other ecosystems (for example,
    lakes) are needed to verify this conclusion.

  • The EMAP-Forest program appears to have the capability to provide crucial information on the effects of
    air pollutants on New England forests, as required to satisfy the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.
Table 2.  Distribution of Open Grown, Dominant, and Codominant Trees on
            FHM Plotsl, by Percent Foliage Transparency Class for Major
            Species
Species
Balsam Fir
Red Spruce
Eastern White Pine
Northern White -Cedar
Eastern Hemlock
Red Maple
Sugar Maple
Yellow Birch
Paper Birch
American Beech
White Ash
Northern Red Oak
Foliage Transparency Class
Normal
(0-30%)
Moderate Severe
(31-50%) (51+%)
Percent of Sampled Trees
99.7 0.3 0.0
99.8 0.2 0.0
95.5 4.5 0.0
91.9 7.6 0.5
97.9
95.6
98.9
96.2
92.8
86.8
94.9
90.4
2.1 0.0
3.5 0.9
0.8 0.3
1.9 1.9
6.5 0.7
6.9 6.3
5.1 0.0
4.8 4.8

Data quality not
rated; Information
not available when
report went to
press.






         'Data from 204 Forested FHM Plots
                                                                                 VII - 23

-------
BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Table 3.    Average Tree Ratings for New England and Virginia - 1990

Species
New England
Balsam Fir
Eastern Hemlock
Sugar Mapla
American Beech
Virginia
Loblolly Pine
Sweetgum
Red Maple

Total
Trees

92
126
180
105

641
185
111

Dieback

5.0
4.4
6.7
10.6

0.1
6.0
0.0

Transparency

8.8
6.1
9.5
12.7

19.9
26.0
13.3
Crown
Density

55.0
63.9
50.5
45.3

54.8
55.0
78.3
Trees
With
Symptoms

10.3
10.9
22.8
80.8

20.8
24.3
52.7
 Conclusion:  Comparison of Indicator Results to
 Strategies and
 Strategy in Early Development. Based on the finding of the Science Advisory Board that habitat
 destruction and degradation and the loss of biodiversity are urgent ecological problems, EPA has re-
 cently embarked on developing a more ambitious strategy to guide our efforts relevant to these prob-
 lems. Since we typically do not have the lead among federal agencies for regulatory programs affecting
 habitat and the protection of species, it will be a complex task for EPA to influence the cumulative public
 and private actions that affect habitat preservation, replacement, destruction, or mitigation.
 Implications of Indicators. To date, the only conclusion that can be drawn from available environ-
 mental indicators is that the United States as a whole has not done well enough at protecting critical
 habitat to maintain the abundance of native fish and wildlife at desirable levels. From the scientific
 perspective of attempting to maintain the nation's ecological integrity, the continued extinction of our
 freshwater fish species at a rate equivalent to that before the passage of the Endangered Species Act in
 1966, together with the assessment of fishery experts that conditions of one third of all other freshwater
 fishes are of concern, threatened or endangered, is a very negative indicator.
 Another indicator with important economic and recreational implications is the decline in abundance of
 wild ducks, which depend on prairie pothole wetlands and other habitats whose destruction has taken
 place at a rapid rate. Ducks  are one of the most important categories of wildlife from the perspective of
 U.S. sportsmen and outdoor enthusiasts, and the industries that support their hunting, hiking and camp-
 ing activities.
 Finally, there is the recent decline in abundance of neotropical migrant birds, which include most of the
 songbirds of the northeastern United States. Surely this should be taken as an important warning sign
 by an agency whose creation in 1970 was in part a result of the popular response to the publication of
 Rachel Carson's book, Silent Spring, warning that if we do not exercise responsible husbandry of our
 natural resources, we could lose our songbirds, as well as other living species.
  VII-24

-------
                                                                  BIODIVERSITY & HABITAT ALTERATION

Strategic Options. While EPA doesn't have a clear lead on many habitat issues, it will be part of the
mandate of the agency wide work-group and regulatory "cluster" to look into whether we are using our
available authorities as effectively as we might. Given the serious nature of the impacts we are seeing, it
seems warranted to evaluate whether we are using our NEPA authority as fully as we might to protect
against cumulative losses of critical habitats. It is also important that each media office consider
whether their authorities are being effectively used to guard against destruction of critical habitats. The
Office of Water has done exactly this in their strategic plan, identifying the protection of critical aquatic
habitats through geographic targeting as a top priority for all their regulatory and nonregulatory pro-
grams (NPDES, nonpoint sources, estuary programs, etc.). However, although some of these activities
have been underway for several years, it takes time for accomplishments to be achieved. To date there
are scant data to indicate improvements on a national scale in conditions of the critical aquatic habitats
of estuaries, lakes and wetlands, with the exceptions of the results of the long-term, well-funded national
programs for the Great Lakes and Chesapeake Bay (see those sections of this report).
Indicator Baselines Incomplete. An important difficulty is that we could actually be starting to
make progress in some areas and not be able to show it. We need better baselines of the extent and
current conditions of critical habitats. For example, there is no consistent national inventory of the condi-
tion of critical surface water habitats, except for the OW 305(b) report on status of estuarine waters,
lakes and inland waters (see OW chapter), which gives a useful national snapshot of the principal problems
of each type of water body, but is not consistent enough to analyze trends in habitat degradation or im-
provement over time. And surface waters may be the habitat for which we have the most complete infor-
mation, since for most others we lack even the kind of rough snapshot provided by the 305(b) report.
The Fish and Wildlife Service and NOAA have begun systematic national inventories of wetlands, but
there is a long way to go until these are complete, and freshwater wetlands in particular are in danger of
disappearing before they are even inventoried in many locations. And for forests, deserts and other ter-
restrial habitats, while the Department of the Interior agencies and the U.S. Forest Service have catalogued
those lands belonging to them, consistent surveys of the national habitat base as a whole do not exist.
EMAP will be an important step towards a national habitat inventory if fully implemented.  However, given
likely federal resources, it would take agreement by states, and perhaps some localities and large pri-
vate landholders, to help conduct inventories based on a design like that of EMAP, to piece together a
picture of the nation's habitat base at spatial scales adequate to truly figure out which living resources in
which locations are most at risk, and therefore most in need of protection through the combinations of
federal, state,  local and private actions that could be brought to bear to protect their habitats.
                                                                                       vn-as

-------
                                                                                APPENDIX A
Indicator Profile Used  to Develop  Data Quality
Name of Indicator:.
Date on which this profile was completed:
Completed by:	
Title:	
Organization:
Address:	
Telephone number/extension:,
f.  Description of Indicators
1. What data set is to be used?
2. What  analysis has been performed on the data set?
3. What is the presentation format? (i.e., bar chart, trend line, color-coded map, etc.). Please describe
  as precisely as possible.
4. What will the indicator represent (e.g. problem area)?
II. Indicator Quality Profile
  A. Institutional Context of the data collection effort and respective indicator development.
     1. Sponsor,  purpose, funding of data collection
       a.  Initiator, sponsor, ongoing mission of sponsor, funding (dollars and staff time)
       b.  Initial purpose and target audience or target users
       c.  Basic design and constraints
       d.  Identity and roles of participating institutions
     2. Sponsor,  purpose, funding of indicator effort
       a.  Initiator, sponsor, sponsor's ongoing mission, funding
       b.  Initial purpose and target audience or target users
       c.  Basic design and constraints
       d.  Identity and roles of participating institution
  B. The  Underlying Scientific Principles and Issues
     1. Describe what is known, unknown or assumed about the underlying chemistry, physics or
       biology considered in designing and operating the associated monitoring program.
       a.  What is known and unknown about these factors that is relevant to monitoring for them?
       b.  What implications are there for the measurement of these pollutants in this medium?
     2.  What is known about the measurement technology used?
       a.  What measurement technology(s) is/are being used?
       b.  What is known and unknown about this/these technology(s)?
       c.  What are the implications for the quality of the resultant monitoring data?
     3. Given these scientific principals and considerations, how appropriate are the data set, analysis
       and indicator in representing the environmental problem area described in section I (4)?
                                                                                    A-l

-------
APPENDIX A

  C. Quality of the Operational Elements
     1. Data collection and input
        a. Sampling plan (Statistical design)
        b. Sample collection
        c. Sample handling, transport and storage
        d. Sample preparation, cleanup and analysis
        e.  Recordkeeping
        f. Data transmittal, input and handling
     2. Data management and retrieval
        a. Data storage and maintenance
        b. Data review by and use by others
        c. Data retrieval
     3. Data editing and analysis
        a. Data cross-examination and editing.
          (1)  How extensive has the cross-examination been with regard to each of the following?
              What was found for each? What was done about each?
              (a) Missing values
              (b) Outliers
              (c) Departures from expected patterns
              (d) Discontinuities
              (e) Other anomalous values
           (2) What logic checks were used?
              (a) Data adjustment and transformation
                 What adjustments and transformations were used? Why was each used?
              (b) Data analysis
           (3) Product generation and dissemination
              (a) Graphic/cartographic presentation of the results of the data analysis
              (b) Review and revision of the results of the analysis in final presentation format
              (c) Publication of the results in final presentation format
              (d) Dissemination of the publications
    D. Overall Assessment of Quality
       1. What is the estimated total statistical bias in the data?
      2. What is the potential extent of all non-quantified bias in the data?
      3. What is the estimated total  precision of the data?
       4. How  representative are the reported indicator values of the population on which information is
         actually being sought?
       5. What caveats and cautions should the reader keep in mind in using this indicator?
       6. What caveats and cautions should the data user keep in mind in using  the underlying data and
         data sets?
  Iff.  Sources of Information for this Indicator Quality Profile
  A-n

-------