REVIEW OF  U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

       ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES RESEARCH LABORATORY

       COMPLEX TERRAIN MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
            Lawrence E. Niemeyer, Chairman
                     Sumner Barr
                   Donald Shearer
                     Brian Lamb
                    Jeffrey Weil
                November 19-21, 1985
                     Prepared  by
Research and Evaluation Associates, Inc
       1030 15th Street, N.W., Suite 750
           Washington, D.C. 20005
               (202) 842-2200
        727 Eastowne Drive, Suite 200A
            Chapel Hill, N.C. 27514
               (919)493-1661

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                          TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter                                                       Page

INTRODUCTION 	  1

COMPLEX TERRAIN MODEL DEVELOPMENT (CTMD) PROGRAM 	  2

  Theoretical Considerations 	 	  3
  Laboratory Flow Simulations	 .  6
  Model Design and Development 	  8
  Field Experiments	14
  Model Testing	18

WAKE EFFECTS ON PLUME DISPERSION  	 20

ARCTIC NORTH SLOPE DISPERSION STUDY  	 22

CONCLUDING REMARKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS  	 24

  Complex Terrain Model Development Program  	 24
  Wake Effects Program	26
  Arctic North Slope Dispersion Study   	 26
  Recommendations   	 27

REFERENCES	30

APPENDIX A  - Agenda	32

APPENDIX B - Peer Review Panel	35

APPENDIX C  - Process  Evaluation Report  	 37

APPENDIX D - ASRL Responses to Reviews' Comments 	 40

APPENDIX E  - Review of the  Panel  Report and	46
             Responses of the Laboratory Director

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                            INTRODUCTION

     A peer review was held at Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

on November  19-21,  1985  to evaluate the EPA  Complex  Terrain Program

including three projects:

          •  Complex Terrain Model Development (CTMD)  Program,

          •  Wake Effects on Plume Dispersion, and

          •  Arctic North Slope Dispersion Study.

In order  to effectively review  the work,  a  number of  reports  were

provided  in  advance for preview  and  a series of  presentations  were

made during 1 1/2 days by  several  of  the investigators.   The preview

reports included:

     EPA  Complex Terrain Model Development,

     	, First  Milestone  Report - 1981, Lavery et al., 1982, EPA
             - 600/3-82-036, April  1982;
            , Second Milestone Report - 1982, Strimaitis et al., 1983,
           " EPA  - 600/3-83-015, April 1983;
            ,  Third  Milestone  Report  - 1983, Lavery et al., 1983, EPA
              - 600/3-83-101,  November 1983;
            , Fourth Milestone Report - 1984, Strimaitis et al., 1985,
             EPA  - 600/3-84-110, February 1985.
      EPA  Complex Terrain Model Development, Description of a Computer
      Data Base from  Small  Hill  Impaction  Study No.  1,  Cinder Cone
      Butte,  Idaho, L. E. Truppi and G.C. Holzworth,  1985.
     Scientific  Assessment  Document  on  Status  of  Complex  Terrain
     Dispersion Models  for  EPA Regulatory Applications, Schiermeier,
     F. A.  1984, EPA - 600/3-84-103,  November 1984.
     Evaluation  of  Method  for  Estimating  Pollution Concentrations
     Downwind  of  Influencing  Building, Huber,  A.   H., Atmospheric
     Environment,  18, 2313-2338, 1984.

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     Presentations  were  given  by  F.   Schiermeier,  A.  Huber,  P.
Finkelstein,  G.   Holzworth,  B.  Greene,  L.  Truppi,  W.  Snyder,  T.
Lavery, and D. Strimaitis.

          COMPLEX TERRAIN MODEL DEVELOPMENT (CTMD) PROGRAM
     The CTMD program has been directed  toward  developing a model for
predicting  concentrations of  plumes  impinging  on elevated  terrain
during  stable atmospheric  conditions.    The  selected  scenarios  are
known to produce high concentrations on  elevated terrain and are also
the  ones  for which existing  regulatory models —  VALLEY,  COMPLEX I
and  II  —  have been highly criticized; the latter models  have also
been  shown  to perform poorly under stable  conditions  (White,  1985).
Thus,  a program  designed  to  deliver  a  theoretically  improved  and
better  performing model  to  estimate   impingement  concentrations  is
clearly a worthwhile objective.
      With the above  objective in mind,  the model development program
began  with  a theoretically-based, conceptual  picture  of the ambient
flow field.   The  conceptual  picture  was verified   by   laboratory
simulations,  which  provided much additional detail  on  the  nature of
the  flow.   In particular, they illustrated the dependence of the flow
field  on  stratification  and  hill  geometry.   These simulations were
conducted  about  impinging  plumes  and  their  diffusion at isolated
three-dimensional  hills.     Based  upon  a  theoretical  foundation,
information  from  the simulations, and  an  analytical  approach  to the
diffusion problem (Hunt et al.,  1979),  a field  program was designed
to  verify  the conceptual picture and the laboratory simulations for

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full-scale  terrain  features.   The  field  program was  designed  to
provide  quantitative  data  for  testing  the  flow  model   and   for
developing/verifying a complex  terrain  diffusion  model.   We  commend
EPA for their foresight in conducting a  planning  workshop in  1979 to
aid  in the  establishment of  the CTMD  program.    In  addition,  we
believe  that  a  good  balance  has  been  maintained  in  the  program
between  theory,  mathematical  modeling,  laboratory simulation,  and
field  experiments.
     In  the following section,  we  will  discuss  the  key aspects  of
this  program:   theory,  laboratory  simulations,  model  design  and
development, field experiments, and model testing.

                     Theoretical Considerations
     There  are  two  major theoretical components  that form  the basis
of the CTMD program:   the flow field about  a hill, especially under
strongly  stable  stratification,  and  the diffusion of  a plume in that
flow.   The first theoretical  prediction of  the  flow was  by Drazin
(1961)  who  characterized   strongly  stable  stratification  by  the
condition F < <  1, where  F is the Froude  number defined as:
                 F *  -
                     Nh  '
Here,  u  is  the mean  wind   speed   upwind  of  the hill,   N  is  the
Brunt-Vaisala frequency,  and h  is the hill height.  Drazin found that
the  primary flow  was irrotational  (i.e.,  potential) in  horizontal
planes about  the hill, except  for  a small  vertical  region  of order
u/N near the hill top.

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     In  a  systematic set of  experiments,  Hunt,  Snyder and  Lawson,
(1978) confirmed  this theory  and  found that  one could  essentially
divide the flow into  a lower  region, which was  horizontally layered,
and an upper  region  in which fluid passed both over and  around  the
hill.  The surface dividing  these  two regions  has  been  termed  the
"dividing  streamline  height"  (Hc),   and  was  found  to  be  given
approximately  by  Hc  =  h (1-F).    Hc  is a  key  variable  describing
the  flow  field  and,  consequently,  an  essential parameter  of  the
developed Complex Terrain Dispersion Model  (CTDM).
     The theoretical basis of the dispersion  component of CTDM is the
diffusion  equation  analysis  introduced by  Hunt  and  Mulhearn  (1973),
and  later extended  by  Hunt  et  al.   (1979).    The   latter  analysis
considered diffusion  in  a deformed flow about  an axisymmetric  hill,
where the  flow was  described by potential  theory.   In  the analysis,
diffusion  occurred  across  streamlines  which  may  be  converging  or
diverging.     Two  stratification  limits   were  investigated,  and
analytical  results  for  the  concentration  field  were   provided  for
each:  1)   F  < <  1  with diffusion taking place in  the horizontally
flowing  layer (below Hc; two-dimensional  potential   theory);  and  2)
F  >  > 1  with  diffusion  taking place  in the fully three-dimensional
flow  about the hill  (three-dimensional potential theory).
      Under the CTMD  program,  the above analysis has  been generalized
to  potential   flow  about ellipsoidal  obstacles.   Thus,  the  model,
CTDM,  can accommodate a variety of  hill  aspect  ratios - width  to
height.

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     In summary, we  believe a rational  and fundamental  theoretical
foundation exists for CTDM and has provided the  proper  framework  for
developing this model.
     Insofar as  theoretical  extensions  are concerned,  we believe  a
logical one  is an adequate  flow field description  for moderate  to
weak stratification,  F >^ 1.  This is  necessary  not  only when  F _>  1
but  also  is required to  properly describe  the flow  above Hc  when
the "cut-off" hill  approximation  is  used.   At  present,  potential  flow
is used in both of the above circumstances, and  it  underestimates the
streamline deformation that  occurs;  i.e., the  stable  stratification
enhances  the deformation.   Use  of  potential   flow  could  possibly
explain the CTDM underprediction  of concentrations  during neutral and
weakly  stable  conditions  at Cinder Cone  Butte   (Strimaitis, et  al.,
1984; Table 8 page 76).
     Linearized  theories  of  stratified  flow about  hills  have  been
developed,  and  one   by  Smith   (1980)  was  examined   in  the  Fifth
Milestone  Report (1985).   Smith's theory is  a linearization  with
respect to hill slope (i.e., the slope must be small).  D. Cristofaro
et  al.,  (1985)  found  that  Smith's  model  did reasonably well  in
predicting vertical streamline displacement over a hill at F ~  2, but
underestimated  the  lateral  streamline  displacement.    One  possible
cause  for  this is the  separated  flow downstream  of the  hill;  this
should  be  examined.   We  believe  Drazin's  (1961)  linearization  with
respect  to  stratification  should  also  be  applied to this  Froude
number regime because it can accommodate any hill slope.

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                     Laboratory Flow Simulations
     The laboratory simulations conducted  at  the EPA Fluid  Modeling
Facility represent  innovative  and  insightful contributions  to  the
stable plume impingement program.   This work  is  one  leg  of the  triad
of fundamentals that support the model  development,  along with theory
and field  experiments.   Stratified flow  experiments  in  the  Fluid
Modeling Facility  stratified  towing tank  served to demonstrate  the
validity of  the dividing  streamline concept  described by  Sheppard
(1956)  and  Drazin  (1961),  and  to  form  the basis for  the model  and
field effort.
     The  laboratory work  also identified  some  limitations  of  the
theory  and  prompted  expansion of  the  theoretical  concepts.    For
example, the existence  of  an  upwind  recirculation  zone was  first
identified in  the  laboratory.  Also, the  dependence of the  dividing
streamline formulation  on  the angle of attack between  the mean wind
and a ridge of moderate  length  was  reported  by Snyder  et al. (1982).
The work  guided  the design  of the  field  experiments  as a  stepwise
progression  in scale  from  the smaller, more  readily  simulated  field
prototypes such as  Cinder Cone Butte to  larger,  more complex domains
such as the Tracy power plant site.
     In addition  to their  role in  the design phase,  the laboratory
experiments  have  entered   into the  post-analysis  of  field  data.
Cinder  Cone  Butte was  simulated in  the  towing tank,  and demonstrated
a strong sensitivity of  the path  of the material below the  critical
dividing streamline that went around the hill to small  changes in the
oncoming wind direction.  In view of this, hourly mean concentrations
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of  tracer were  simulated  by six  tows  with  the  hill  rotated  to
correspond with a particular  10-minute average wind direction.   This
technique  yielded   good   agreement  with  the  field  results.    The
documentation  of  the  lee  side  separation  point  as  a function  of
stability  offers  guidance  to extending  the  validity  of  the  CTDM
beyond the ridge in some cases.
     In addition to specific  results, the laboratory  flow visualiza-
tion capabilities and close control  of flow  quantities for parametric
studies promotes the  development of  insight  into  the  mechanisms  of
terrain flows.  This has been  well applied  in  the main thrust of the
CTMD  program to  date and  should  continue to  be  a  focus  of  the
laboratory work.
     We suggest that future laboratory  simulation  activities  include
investigating  internal   wave  effects   for   lee   side  separation,
providing  guidance  on partitioning wave  and  turbulence  energies  in
field data,  and studying  vertical motion  structure  over more  complex
geometries   such  as  valleys.    We  also  suggest  the  utility  of
laboratory   experiments   in   the  domain   of  weak   to   moderate
stratification  (Froude numbers  of  1 to  2)  for different  obstacle
geometries.   A  general   recommendation  is to continue  to  use  the
laboratory  facility  to  document  as many flow properties  as  are
appropriate  to  simulate  and,  through this  step, help  set priorities
for  future program activities.   There have  been  several  points  of
interaction  between the  laboratory  simulation and the other  program
elements  and  we believe  this  interaction  is very important.   In the
interest  of continuing this relationship,  more cooperative laboratory
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experiments  should  be  designed  and conducted  jointly  with  fluid
modeling facility and other program personnel.

                    Model Design and Development
     From the initial stages of this program, the design of the model
was pursued with the dual objective of realistically simulating plume
transport  around  or over  a hill  while  realizing  a  model that  was
computationally efficient  for  regulatory purposes.   In the  view of
the panel,  this goal  has not  been compromised.  The  physical  basis
for  the initial  modeling  concepts  has  been  confirmed through  the
fluid modeling and field study programs.
     The  design  of  the  current  model  incorporates  the  dividing
streamline   concept  through  the  LIFT  and   WRAP   models   in  a
straightforward  and  reasonable  approach.    Terrain  obstacles  are
treated  as best-fit  ellipsoids and  plume  streamlines  are  obtained
from  potential  flow theory for  these  ellipsoids.    While  actual
terrain  shapes  are  not  modeled exactly,  the fitted ellipsoids are an
approximation to  the real  world  and plume streamlines  in the model
seem to  duplicate the results from lab and field tests.
     Diffusion rates  of plumes  transported  along the  streamlines are
initialized from  measured  turbulence intensities in a manner  that is
consistent  with current theory for near-field diffusion.   It  appears
from  the Tracy full-scale  study,  however,  that  vertical diffusion
rates,    based    upon   unfiltered   turbulent    intensities,    are
overestimated.     Model  concentrations,   therefore,   underestimate
observed concentrations.  This may be related to the contributions of
wave motions in the approach flow.   Further work is needed to examine
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the wave  effects and  a method  for  treating  this problem  must  be
developed before the model  can be applied  in  real  situations.
     The vertical dispersion  parameter, az, at  large  times (t)  is
assumed  to  have  a  t^/2   dependence   consistent  with  statistical
theory  and  diffusive   behavior.    However,  there  is  a  competing
theoretical  formulation (Pearson  et  a!.,  1983)  that  predicts   a
constant  QZ  at large  t.     The  latter  formulation  appears  to  be
equally consistent  with the  lidar  observations  at  large times  and
therefore, should merit further consideration.
     The  Lagrangian  time  scale,   x|_yť  for  the  lateral  turbulence
component is assumed to be  infinitely  large  based on  the analysis  of
some data  from  the  CTMD program, at relatively short range, (x <  5
km) and  from some other experiments;  however,  there are  field  data
from   some  other  sites that show  a  Oy    tl/2  at  large times  in
stable  conditions.   The  ay  vs  time dependence  becomes more of  an
issue at long range  (x  > 5 km),  i.e, for hills further distant  from
the source than  investigated  in  either of the  small  hill  studies  or
the Tracy  experiment.   The panel feels that the  parameterization  of
the Lagrangian time  scale  merits much  further  consideration  and  is a
variable that may benefit from local  measurements.
     The flow  field  modeling  presently  addresses a  single  isolated
hill.  However,  in  real  complex  terrain, there will  always  be  other
obstructions and some may be  "nearby".   Other hills become especially
important  in strongly  stable  conditions and for  flow below  Hc  where
two-dimensional  potential  flow is used.   The  latter flow field  is
especially sensitive to the assumed  lateral  boundary  conditions.   If
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other obstacles are present, they can lead to slight  changes  in  wind
direction and speed,  which can produce dramatic  concentration  changes
on an "isolated" hill.  Perhaps  the  effects  of other hills could  at
least be  explored  in sensitivity analyses,  during  the remainder  of
the CTMD program.
     Turbulent diffusion  of a plume  in the  distorted  flow  over  or
around  an   obstacle  is   simulated   through  the   development   of
terrain-averaged correction factors applied to  the  flat  terrain  wind
speed and diffusion  parameters.   These factors account  for  obstacle
shape,  atmospheric  stability,   and  the  plume  streamline  receptor
geometry.  The use of average factors  in  place  of  the line integrals
present in the original  plume theory was recognized by the panel  as a
necessary simplification  for  computational  efficiency.   However,  it
requires  further theoretical  justification  and demonstration as  to
its  equivalence  with the line integral approach.   It is recommended
that  the  sensitivity of the model output be  documented  with  respect
to the use of the average correction factors.
      It is a positive feature that  the model explicitly incorporates
wind  direction  variability.    As  the  source  -   receptor  distance
increases,  wind  direction  changes  become  the dominant  factor  in
determining  the  extent  to which  a  narrow plume  impinges  upon  a
particular  terrain  obstacle.    If  it  is  assumed  that  impingement
physics are  similar  for obstacles near or far  from the source,  then
the   model   can  be extended   to  larger   scales  through   simple
incorporation  of the correct wind  direction frequency distribution.
However,  greater uncertainty  in  predicted concentrations and  "misses"
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can be expected for hills at larger distances because  of  the  greater
sensitivity to wind direction.
     The model  design also  explicitly accounts  for  portions  of  a
plume transported  above  and below  Hc in  a  mass consistent  manner.
While the  approach is physically  plausible, the  results of  plumes
released very  near Hc should be carefully analyzed to confirm  this
approach.  In particular, the thickness of the transition  region  near
Hc has not yet been documented.
     The  number   of  adjustable  model   parameters  appears   to  be
relatively small,  which  is a positive  feature  of the model  design.
Values  of  these parameters  or  methods to determine  the parameters
require further work.   This is probably  best accomplished  through a
combination  of model  performance   vs.  field  data  tests and model
sensitivity analyses.
     The  model employs  the distance to  separation  of  streamlines
(xsep)  in tne  1ee °f  tne n1^ in tne  calculation of  the  terrain
correction  factors.    The  specification  of  xsep  is  based  upon
results  from  fluid  modeling  studies.    In  contrast  to  the  Hc
concept,  the  utility of  the  rules  governing  xsep  have  not  been
fully confirmed in the  atmosphere.   Following a sensitivity analysis
of  xsep, confirmation  is  still  important  and  should   be  obtained
through careful analysis of the available  field data.
     Based  upon the  presentations,  further use of  the  digitized
trajectories from  the fluid modeling  results for different  stability
conditions should  be  fully exploited  in  the  final development of the
model.  As the model  exists, flow over  the hill  is  traced as  neutral
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flow and  no  compression of  streamlines,  due  to  stratification,  is
provided.  The fluid modeling results  should  be used to  improve  the
model in this respect.
     A major  weakness  in the model appears to be in  the  treatment  of
low-level plumes  in  blocked flow,  upwind of  a ridge,   i.e,  Hogback
Ridge.  Unfortunately,  guidance from fluid modeling  is not  available
for this case so  improvements  must be  derived  from the  field  data.
However,  given   the   high  concentrations   associated   with   this
situation,  the  panel   strongly  believes  further   efforts   should
emphasize the blocked  flow case.
     Early   indications   from  new   users  of   CTDM   suggest   the
presentation  of the modeling concepts could be improved  and  the model
could  become more  user friendly through the  addition  of a  plume
trajectory processor.    This feature  will  be useful  for  trouble-
shooting in model comparisons with field data or with other, possibly
more  sophisticated  models.   Other  diagnostic tools  which  provide
vertical  and  horizontal   concentration   distributions   at  various
downwind distances would also be very useful.
     With respect to model  applications,  the panel  has  the  following
concerns:
     •    The   present   version   of   CTDM   contains   considerable
          mathematical  and numerical detail,  especially when compared
          to other applied  dispersion models.   We  feel  it was proper
          to  develop  the  model  in this way,  but  it   may  now  be
          necessary to   simplify  CTDM  somewhat.     There are  three
          reasons for this:  1)  to  highlight  the  essential  physics
          from the less  important  detail;  2) to make applications by
          the   user  community   easier;   and  3)  to    reduce   the
          computational   time.     Furthermore,  the  present   model
          algorithms  (e.g.,  the  COMPLEX  I   and   II   plume  path
          descriptions),  is  not  so  overwhelmingly  better  as  to
          justify  the  present  numerical  detail.    A  sensitivity
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          analysis  should  be conducted to  aid  in the simplification
          of  the model.


          Some  guidance will be necessary to aid  the user in specify-
          ing  the  input   data,   especially  in   determining  the
          parameters  (ellipsoid  axes - a and b)  describing the hill
          nf  mnrorn
of concern
          Guidance  will  also be necessary  in  determining what input
          data to use — especially to  calculate u, the temperature
          gradient,  Hc,  and  the  turbulence  parameters  --  in  the
          absence of  measurements  at  plume  elevation  or  near  the
          terrain elevation.
     •    Some guidance will  be  necessary to  assure  that the model  is
          not   misapplied    by    use    of   nonrepresentative   wind
          observations  in  a domain of mesoscale  variability common  in
          areas  of  terrain  complexity.    For   example,  a  serious
          challenge  made   to  the  Valley  model  in  the  late  70's
          centered not  on  the model  itself  but  on the  application
          wherein it was  driven  by wind observations from  a  tower
          mounted on sloping terrain on  one  side of a broad valley.
          The  plume  was assumed  to traverse the  valley under the
          stability  conditions associated with  drainage  flow in the
          valley  and  impact  the  high  terrain  directly  across the
          valley from the  source.   This was  an  unrealistic  scenario
          since  subsequent  data   on   the opposite  side showed   a
          downslope  there  as well.  The confluent  slope winds in fact
          turned  and  flowed  down  the  valley  axis.    The  fine
          additional  work  incorporated  in CTDM to  address  the physics
          of impaction can be invalidated in the  application step  if
          the   user   does   not   apply   reasonable  principles   of
          terrain-influenced mesoscale wind fields.

     Future  model  development  activities  could  benefit from the

exploration of  alternatives  to  the Gaussian plume.   Particle-based

dispersion  modules  offer  a  flexibility in  problems  of geometric

complexity that  can  stymie plume models.   The  panel  suggests  that,

while  it  is  probably  beyond the  scope  of  the  present  program  to

develop  such  techniques,  some attention be  given  to   alternative

dispersion  modules.     This  can  be  done   economically  through

coordination with scientists who are working  in  this area. Questions

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of computational requirements and other limitations may  preclude  the
incorporation of sophisticated particle dispersion modules, but they
may offer valuable complementary information.
     As this model development reaches completion,  the panel believes
it becomes even more important to interact with other  groups modeling
complex terrain.  Specifically, it appears that a separate task  could
be  created  with  the objective  of direct  interaction  of the CTMD
program with other similar programs.
     Participation by the model  user  community in  the development of
the CTDM is an important facet of the program.  It is  recognized that
there has been  close coordination  with  the  user community, including
the private sector as well  as  other  programs  within EPA, e.g.,  OAOPS
and the EPA Regional Offices.  In addition, we understand that as  the
model is nearing  completion  it will  be  tested by the  potential  users
in  the agency  and by  the Electric  Power  Research  Institute.    We
applaud this  kind of coordination, for it  is only through use that
the  final  model  product   can   be   tailored  to  meet   the   actual
requirements of the user community.
     We  also  recommend further  testing   of   the  model  to  include
careful  comparison with  other  possibly  more  sophisticated  models,
using  the  different  models'  data  archives.   This   could  best  be
implemented  through  a  modeling  workshop  with  invited  participants
required to exercise their models on specific data sets.

                          Field Experiments
     The field  experimental portion of the CTDM program stands out as
a very good  example  of  coordination  between the needs for evaluation
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and measurement design.   The  design of the  experiments is based  on
both  theoretical   considerations  and  the  findings   made   throuqh
laboratory   simulations.   Having   well-specified   the   measurement
requirements needed to generate data for model  development,  the field
experimental plan  followed with  well  defined and  narrow  specific
objectives, thus yielding a well  focused experimental  plan.
     The field  experimental design was finalized after the contractor
conducted preliminary  or  abbreviated field  measurements  at  each  of
the three field sites.  This  too  provided a mechanism  to  refine  the
experimental design based on specific field experience.
     The  actual   design,   which   incorporated  employment   of  two
atmospheric  tracers  as well  as  visual  smoke  tracer  and the  newer
remote  sensing  devices,  optimized the  amount  of  data  that  could  be
generated during the field  phase  of  work.   Additionally,  this use of
remote  sensors has  led  to valuable  insight   and  detail  about  the
spatial  and  temporal  variability of the physical processes  of plume
behavior.    Ultimately,  such   insight  serves  as  a visual  standard
against which one can compare the model.
     Quality assurance  included  audits of  the raw measurements  and
tracer  assay as well  as  audits  of  the meteorological  measurements.
Post  experimental   review  and cross  checks   among  the  data  were
conducted in an extensive and rigorous manner.  All   of  this should
result  in high  quality data and  increase  confidence in the resulting
developments.
     The distance  extent  of the  Cinder  Cone  Butte experiments was to
about 2  km  from the tracer source.   The extent of  the Hogback Ridge
                                 15

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experiment was to 1 or 2 km,  while  for  the Tracy experiments  it  was
to a maximum  of about 5 km.   While these  distances  are of  primary
concern,  the  regulatory application  will  surely  extend to  greater
distances.    Therefore,  the  most  logical   next  step  would  be  to
consider  greater distances  and  to conceive  ways  that limited  field
experiments or  laboratory  simulations can  be  employed  to  represent
plume behavior at longer distances.
     The  field  experiments were  designed  with  primary emphasis  on
documenting plume  impingement  on  the   front  face  of  the  terrain
feature.   While this  initial impingement  is of high  concern,  other
work  has   illustrated   that   lee-side  concentrations  can   exceed
impingement concentrations  observed on  the windward  side at  least
during  some conditions  (Smith,  T.   B.,  Diffusion  Study in  Complex
Mountainous Terrain, 1965).  Regulatory concern will surely extend to
include  lee-side impingement  concentrations  and  therefore  further
work in that area should be a high priority.
     The  field  experiments  conducted at the Hogback Ridge  and,  to a
lesser degree,  those  conducted  at Tracy, illustrated  that  emissions
made  below the critical  streamline  Hc  can   and  do  pool  in  the
upstream  area of the  terrain feature.   Further  investigation  of the
upstream  pooling should  be  conducted   because,  when  such  pooling
occurs,   the  plume   concentration   in   these  regimes  can   reach
comparatively high  values.    Regulatory  concern surely  will  include
such phenomena.
     At the current stage  of  the  program,  initial  data analyses have
been completed.  It is  fully realized that  further analyses  will  be
                                 16

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conducted.   Such  follow-on analyses should  include  a comparison  of
the ground  level  concentration "footprint"  from the  SF5 with  that
of the freon tracer.  Since  the emission points for the  two  tracers
were  located  with  a  small   distance  separation,   this  kind   of
comparison  should  give  some  detail   about  the  expected   spatial
variability  and in  turn could  be  employed  as  information about  the
inherent variability one should expect  within the field data.
     In the  Cinder Cone Butte  experiments and  those  conducted at  the
Hogback  Ridge,  non-buoyant   plumes  were  studied,  while  at  Tracy
limited plume buoyancy  was introduced  as the plant was  operated  at
reduced  loads  for  the  experimental  period  (typically  10  to  25%
capacity of  the 120 MW  unit).   Other work has  shown that plume rise
from  buoyant  plumes   is   reasonably  well   predicted   by   current
techniques during  stable  conditions.   However, these  techniques  do
not adequately represent buoyant plume rise  during  either neutral  or
unstable conditions and thus this limitation became a major source of
error  in  model  predictions   (EPRI PMV & D  Diagnostic  Model  Valida-
tion).   As  the  CTMD   program  progresses  to  include concentration
predictions  during neutral and  unstable conditions, additional effort
will  be needed to  develop  better plume rise algorithms for  those
conditions and  a  broader  range of  plume  buoyancy  will  need  to  be
represented  than has been done  to date.
     The panel looks forward  to the  results  of the planned effort in
complex terrain dispersion climatology.  As outlined in  a  briefing
during  the  review,  it  will  highlight  an  empirical  analysis  of  the
ground  level concentration patterns  and their  dependence on  release
                                 17

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configuration and meteorological conditions.   This type of  analysis
will be a valuable adjunct to the overall  interpretation of the field
experiments.
     The  data  sets  from  each  of the  field  experiments  are  being
archived on magnetic tape for distribution to independent requesters.
A  procedure has   been  established  for  this  dissemination  and  a
document  describing  the tapes  is  available to  accompany the  data.
This is  a valuable step  in  enhancing  the ultimate  use of  the  data
since well-designed  field  experiments  often benefit  from  innovative
analyses  by   independent   users  years   after   the   projects   are
completed.

                            Model Testing
     Model  testing  is  part  of the objective of  CTMD and  there  is  a
vigorous  task   underway  toward  this  end.    The program  uses  the
procedures  recommended  by  an  EPA-AMS   workshop as  well  as  some
procedures  developed by program  participants.   Model  testing  is  a
very active area  of  research at the present time with  new heuristic
and  statistical   perspectives  being  developed  continually.   Model
testing programs (EPRI) and workshops (DOE/Savannah River Lab) should
be  acknowledged  and some  of their  recommendations  adopted.   Model
skill  is  the acid test that will  determine the ultimate  enthusiasm
for compliance so  the testing  methods  should be  objective, rational,
simple to understand,  and  should point the  way  to model improvement
(e.g.,  sensitivity  of  skill   score to  various  inputs  and  model
properties).
                                 18

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     There appear  to be  certain sensitive  parameters for  which  a
small  error  in  input  quantities  yields  large  departures   from
observation.    One example  is wind  direction  in  the typical  field
experiment with a moderate to low density of point  samplers.   Often,
because plumes are narrow at short travel  distances, a small  error in
trajectory can  account  for  a  "hit"  or  "miss"  at  a point  sampler,
making it often  impossible  to distinguish between  a  good  prediction
that is mislocated by a few meters or a totally incorrect  model.  The
problem is compounded in stable  flow about obstacles  by the  observed
sensitivity of plume path to very small changes  in angle of attack of
the ambient wind.
     The panel urges the thoughtful design of sensitivity  analyses of
the  CTDM  in  order to wisely use the  limited  time available  on  the
project.  A careful selection could save  a lot  of work and time over
an exhaustive testing of the full matrix of model  parameters.
     Model  tests should  be  guided  by  insights  of  time and  space
continuity of the  tracer  plume  and  the mechanics of stable  plume
aerodynamics  (e.g.,  why  are the  bad  points bad?).   In  performing
these  analyses,  project personnel should remain  open to  the possi-
bilities of as yet un-modeled phenomena (e.g.,  density currents, non-
homogeneous   turbulence,  non-homogeneous  surface   energy  budgets,
etc.).
     Every  effort should  be made  to  seek  out  independent  tracer
experiment data  sets to use in testing CTDM.   The  planned (February
1986) workshop is a first step in this direction.
                                 19

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     Another  aspect  of  model  testing,  which  will  be  indirectly
addressed through the  workshop,  is quality  assurance  of the  actual
model code.  The probability for  either logic errors or typing  errors
increases as the length of the model  programs increases.  A OA  effort
is required to minimize errors in the model.
     At  some  point  in   the   evaluation  of  the  model,  the   model
performance  should   be discussed  in  the  context  of  the overall
uncertainty of the field data.

                  WAKE  EFFECTS ON PLUME DISPERSION
     In  addition to  the  primary  work  on  Complex  Terrain   Model
Development,  two other  projects funded  under  the Complex Terrain
program were  reviewed.  The  first  of these,  Wake Effects  on  Plume
Dispersion, was  shown  to  be of significant interest to  the needs  of
the  Environmental Protection  Agency  in providing guidance in matters
pertaining  to Good  Engineering  Practice  in  the  placement, design,
height,  and  use of  chimneys  near  buildings.     Moreover,  it  was
demonstrated  that the plume  dispersion,  in the  wake of  surface
obstacles,  also  has  a  practical  objective  beyond  the  scientific
desire  to improve the equations  used  to estimate dispersion.   It
would be difficult to tabulate the many problems  found by responsible
authorities  in  urban   areas  that  require  the  information   being
developed  under  the  Wake  Effects  Project.    However,  caution  is
recommended.   While  there  are a great number of  problems  requiring
solution,  there  is  not  an overwhelming  requirement   to  study  the
problem at  length.   Engineering  or best  estimates  are  sufficient  to
meet the  requirements  of  decision  makers.   This is not  to  say that
                                 20

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all  facets  have  been  considered.   For  example,  the  influence  of
multiple  buildings  or  multiple  building  complexes   on   surface
dispersion appears to be an area  that has  received  little attention.
Judging from  the  literature  citations  in  the recent  publications,
there  is  a  reasonable  knowledge  of previous  work  in  this  field.
However, recent work on  the modification of the ISC model  by ERT may
have  been  overlooked  and  needs  to  be  reviewed  for  pertinent
information.
     Future work plans appeared to emphasize tests  of the effects of
building  scales vs.  boundary  layer scales.    However,  the  panel
believes this  type of work  has  received  considerable  attention  in
past studies.   We  suggest  that there are  other areas which deserve
greater emphasis.    Specifically,  most  building  diffusion  problems
involve   buoyant   plumes   and/or  momentum   jets.     The   recent
modifications to  ISC by  ERT have addressed the interaction  of plume
rise and building  downwash  in  a simple  but realistic fashion.   This
type of modeling should  be tested in the wind  tunnel.
     A  second  area in need of  experimental and theoretical  work is
the  effect  of  building  orientation upon  downwind diffusion.    The
desired end  product  is  a diffusion algorithm which incorporates the
incident flow angle.  A third area of concern  is the extension of the
existing algorithm to stable conditions.  Fluid modeling experiments,
possibly  using  the  water   tow  tank   and   coupled    with   field
measurements, may  address this question.
     The  video  imaging  technique  under  development in  this  task
appears to  have  the potential  to  become a  powerful  tool  and  it
                                 21

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deserves further attention.   It should continue to be  applied  to  the
areas mentioned above.  As part of  these  applications,  the technique
can be used to examine the nature of  concentration fluctuations  near
buildings.    In  cases  of   the  release  of  toxic  materials  from
buildings,  peak  concentrations  or the  probability  that  threshold
concentrations are exceeded  are the factors of most  concern.
     In summary, the work under the project  titled, Wake Effects  and
Plume  Dispersion,  is  of  interest  to  the  scientific  community,  has
applications  to  the  needs  of  EPA,  and  is  of   good  scientific
quality.

                 ARCTIC NORTH SLOPE DISPERSION STUDY*
     The  second  project  reviewed under  the Complex Terrain  Program
was  the  Arctic  North  Slope Dispersion Study.   The study,  which  was
initiated  in  August  of  1985,  is  expected  to  provide  valuable
information on  dispersion pertinent to the  important  oil  production
area  along the  North Slope  of  Alaska.    The primary  goal   of  the
research  study is  to develop  accurate  and  documented methods  for
modeling  pollutant  transport  and  diffusion from  local  sources  on the
North  Slope of Alaska.  The work  is  of  prime interest  because  the
climatological  conditions   are  considerably  different   from   the
climatological  conditions  under   which   the  dispersion  equations
currently  in use were developed.
*In  order  to avoid  conflict  of  interest,  Dr.  Lamb,   who  is  the
principal  investigator of  the Arctic  North  Slope Dispersion Project,
did not participate in the review of this project.
                                 22

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     The  different  conditions  include  fundamental   differences   in
boundary layer wind, temperature,  and  turbulence structure from  low
latitude sites due to different surface conditions (e.g.,  roughness,
sensible and latent  heat balances), and due to different combinations
of wind  and  stability  resulting from  altered  driving  forces  (e.g.,
more strong wind, stable  lapse  rate conditions).  Therefore,  unless
the study is performed,  calculations made with existing equations  and
dispersion  coefficients   may  lead   to  significantly   inaccurate
estimates of  the impact  of  sources of  air pollution  in this  area
important to  the development of  national oil  reserves.   The  study
appears to be well  designed  and careful attention has  been given to
the development of  a reasonable project that  can be  performed  within
the time and budget  allocations specified.
                                 23

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               CONCLUDING REMARKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
     The dispersion model  development for  predicting air  pollution
concentrations associated with plume impingement on  elevated  terrain
is  progressing  very well  under EPA  sponsorship.    The  model  being
developed employs applications of real  atmospheric  processes and thus
is dynamically pleasing.   The employment  of data from extensive field
measurement efforts and  from  laboratory  fluid modeling  simulations
appears to be a wise choice.  The latter  seems  to  provide much added
insight regarding the  physical processes  of plume behavior in complex
terrain features, and  thus provides  a valuable means of understanding
the processes that must be represented by the mathematical model.
     Furthermore, the  way the study  has progressed  from a theoretical
basis, through  design  and  testing  in the  FMF, through  preliminary
field tests, to complete field tests,  to  model  development and model
testing  with  feedback  at  each  step along  the way  is  an  excellent
example  of  a  sound  scientific  approach  to  a  problem,   an  approach
which often  is  not possible  because  of  budget or  time  constraints.
EPA is to be commended for  the excellent  manner in which the program
has been organized and managed.

              Complex  Terrain Model  Development Program
     The overall program is an excellent  combination of theory, fluid
modeling and field studies.  It reflects  well upon the efforts of the
managerial and technical  personnel.
     The  theory  is  a  reasonable   approximation  of  the  dominant
physical  factors.     Model  design   incorporates   the   theoretical
                                 24

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concepts into a useful  code for regulatory purposes.   It appears that
needed simplifications  in the model  do not compromise the theoretical
foundations.
     Theory and existing model algorithms have been largely confirmed
by fluid modeling.  Fluid modeling  was  used  extremely effectively to
design  the  experiments, provide  guidance to  the modelers,  and  to
understand field study results.
     The  field  studies were well-designed  and  executed  and  the
Quality Assurance  efforts  were  rigorous.    It  should be  noted that
field studies  and  fluid modeling tests have not  addressed transport
beyond  5  km  or  large  buoyant  plumes.    This  is  reflected  in
formulation  of the diffusion terms  for  longer  travel  times.    The
model  development requires   additional  attention to some  specific
portions:
     1) T-factor averages,
     2) values of  adjustable  constants  (such as
        Lagrangian time scales),
     3) flow blockage for 2-dimensional ridges,
     4) flow above Hc and moderately  stratified
        flow in general,
     5) confirmation of the treatment of the Hc
        transition region, and
     6) effects of upwind boundary  conditions.
     Similarly,  with  regard   to  model  applications,  the following
points  should  be made.
     1) The model may need to be further simplified
        for regulatory  use.
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     2)  Guidance will  be required  for  the user to
        specify input  data correctly.
     3)  Diagnostic tools such  as  plume trajectories
        should be provided.
     The model testing follows recommended procedures but more recent
developments in this area could be incorporated.
     The sensitivity  analyses  should  be  carefully developed  to  test
variations in model parameters and modules.
     A workshop  is  recommended for model  intercomparisons  on common
data sets.
                        Wake Effects Program
     This program  has provided valuable  input for treating  the  wide
variety  of   sources   which  involve building  downwash  and  enhanced
diffusion.   Future work should  emphasize buoyant  plumes,  building
orientation  effects,  stable  plume  cases, and,  in a general  sense,
multiple  building  effects.    Further  development  and application  of
the video processing  technique are recommended.
                 Arctic  North Slope Dispersion Study
     The  Arctic  North Slope Dispersion Study, which  began  in August
1985,  is expected to  provide  valuable  information on  dispersion
pertinent to the developing oil production area along the North Slope
of Alaska.   The study  plan is reasonable  and  well   designed.   Good
results  are  anticipated  with application to  important regions  in
Alaska as well as other  important arctic  regions of the world.
                                 26

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                           Recommendations
1.   Lee recirculation and/or lee transport close to the surface can
cause  high   pollutant   concentrations  for   some   source   terrain
configurations.    The  nature  of  leeward  flow  patterns  should   be
investigated as a  primary part  of  the second phase  of the  complex
terrain program.   Results  from previous  fluid  modeling  and  field
tests should first be  analyzed  in greater depth  with  regard to lee
recirculation.
     Emphasis upon the leeward impact of sources located both upwind
and downwind  of an obstacle  should be  included  in this  work.   We
anticipate  that the  CTMD  progression  from  simple  to  full-scale
situations involving theoretical modeling, fluid modeling,  and  field
studies will be well-suited to the problem of leeward  recirculation.
2.   The  CTMD  project  has focused  to  date  on  small   scales  in  a
systematic  plan of building  on  a  documented knowledge  base.   One
logical extension  of the present  work  is to  extend  the scale  of
interest  to   include  settings  of  frequent   practical   interest,
typically up to  about  30  km.    Under  stable, horizontally  layered
conditions,  stack plumes may travel over these distances with limited
dilution before impacting elevated  topography.  Many of the concepts
developed for the CTDM will continue to be valid;  but,  the full  scale
demonstration  should  probably  include  this  range.     New  field
measurements need  not be  intensive campaigns as were carried out  at
the  first  three  sites,  but may  center  on   sampling  ground  level
concentration patterns from existing stacks as sources  of opportunity
using,  where   possible,   existing  monitoring  equipment.     Other
                                 27

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approaches  such as cooperative field efforts with other programs may
also be a viable way of collecting  specific  field  data.
3.   The program should incorporate aspects of circulation and  plume
behavior associated with topographic forms  other than  isolated  hills.
Valleys, for  example,  are common  settings  for both  industries  and
population across the United  States.  The circulations within valleys
and basins depend on a large  number of physical phenomena  and certain
combinations  of meteorological  mechanisms  can   produce   very  high
ground-level concentrations of pollutants.   The EPA need not  build  an
independent program for each  important terrain form,  but  should rely
on continued  collaboration with  other research  programs such  as  the
DOE/ASCOT program to meet its objectives.  Some mechanisms that would
influence the concentration field and be of interest to EPA include:
     a)   valley ventilation, especially as it affects plume
          dispersal when gradient level winds cause mechanical
          mixing from the ridgetops downward, and  the dependence
          of  this phenomena on stratification;
     b)   impingement of plumes, especially from large industrial
          sources within valleys, on adjacent ridgetops during
          conditions when gradient  level winds cross the valley
          axis  (There is evidence that the maximum concentrations
          for  large sources may indeed occur during stable
          conditions with cross-valley winds when the plume
          is  confined to the shear  layer between  the valley
          and the above valley flows; e.g., the Westvaco Pulp
          Mill  in Luke, Maryland.);
     c)   the diurnal cycle of the  valley circulation and
          ventilation as it affects plume behavior during
          conditions when the gradient level winds cross
          the  axis of the valley;
     d)   concentration patterns that result during locally
          driven valley flow conditions; and
     e)   concentration patterns and buildup during multi-day
          stagnation periods.
                                 28

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4.   Time steps smaller than 1-hour may be valuable to  understanding
physical processes  leading to  the observed  hourly  concentrations.
However  the panel  feels  that  the  basic 1-hour  time  step  is  an
integral part of the project  objective  and  should  be the main  focus
of the  modeling  and  data analysis.   Special  studies  at higher  time
resolution  may be  pursued to  the extent  that such  resolution  is
supported by the data.
                                 29

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                              REFERENCES

Dicristofaro, D.C., Strimaitis,  D.G.,  Greene, B.R., Yamartino,  R.J.,
     Venkatram, A.,  Godden,  D.A.,  (1985)  EPA  Complex Terrain  Model
     Development Fifth Milestone Report-1985.   EPA/600/3-85/069.   U.S.
     Environmental  Protection Agency,  Research Triangle Park,  NC.

Drazin, P.G. (1961) On the steady flow  of a fluid  of variable density
     past an obstacle.  Tellus 13:239-251.

Hunt,  J.C.R.  and  Mulhearn,  P.J.  (1973),  Turbulent  dispersion  from
     sources   near   two-dimensional   obstacles.     J.  Fluid   Mech.
     .61:245-274.

Hunt,  J.C.R.,  Puttock,  J.S.,  and  Snyder,   W.H.  (1979)  Turbulent
     diffusion  from  a point  source  in stratified  and neutral  flows
     around  a  three-dimensional  hill.   Part   I.   Diffusion  equation
     analysis.  Atmos. Environ. 13;1227-1239.

Hunt,  J.C.R.,  Snyder,  W.H.,  and  Lawson,   Jr.,   R.E.  (1978)   Flow
     structure  and  turbulent  diffusion  around  a  three-dimensional
     hill.   Fluid  modeling  study on effects  of  stratification.   Part
     I.    Flow structure.    EPA  600/4-78-041.    U.S.  Environmental
     Protection Agency Report, Research Triangle Park,  NC.

Pearson,  H.J.,  Puttock, J.S., and  Hunt,  J.C.R. (1983) A statistical
     model  of  fluid-element  motions   and  vertical  diffusion  in  a
     homogeneous   stratified  turbulent  flow.     J.   Fluid  Mech.,
     129:219-249.

Sheppard,  P.A. (1956)  Airflow  over  mountains.   Quart.  J.   R.  Met.
     Soc. 82:528-529.

Smith,  T.B. Diffusion  Study in  Complex  Mountainous  Terrian (April,
     1965),  2  Volumes.   Contract  DA-42-007-AMC-45 (R),  AD 484087.
     U.S. Army Chemical Corps, Dugway Proving Ground, Utah.

Smith, R.B.  (1980)  Linear theory of stratified  hydrostatic  flow past
     an isolated mountain.  Tellus 32:348-364.

Synder,  W.H.,  Thompson,  R.S.,  Eskridge,  R.E.,  Lawson,  R.E.,  Jr.,
     Castro,  I.P.,  Lee,  J.T.,  Hunt, J.C.R.,   and Ogawa, Y. (1982)  The
     structure  of   strongly  stratified  flow  over hills  -  dividing
     streamline  concept.    Appendix   A  to   EPA-600/3-83-015,   U.S.
     Environmental  Protection Agency,  Research  Triangle Park, NC,  pp.
     320-375.

Strimaitis,  D.G.,   Lavery,  T.F.,  Venkatram,   A. Dicristofaro,  D.C.,
     Greene,  B.R.,  and Egan,  B.A.  (1984) EPA Complex Terrain  Model
     Development;  Fourth Milestone Report-1984.    EPA/600/3-84/110.
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.
                                  30

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White, F., Ed.,  (1985)  Summary of complex terrain model  evaluation.
     Prepared under U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency Cooperative
     Agreement   810297   to  the   American  Meterological   Society.
     EPA/600/S3-85/060.      U.S.   Environmental  Protection   Agency,
     Research Triangle Park, NC.
                                 31

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               APPENDIX  A








       AGENDA - PEER REVIEW OF THE



COMPLEX TERRAIN MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
                   32

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                                        AGENDA
                                     Peer Review of the
                          Complex Terrain Dispersion Model Meeting
                                    November 19-21,1985
TIME
                           TOPIC
                                          SPEAKER
Tuesday,  November 19, 1985
  8:00 -  8:30 a.m.
  8:30 -  9:00 a.m.
  9:00 - 10:00 a.m.
 10:00
 10:15
 10:30
 11:30
  1:00
  2:00
  2:15
  2:30
  2:45
10:15 a.m.
10:30 a.m.
11:30 a.m.
 1:00 p.m.
 2:00 p.m.
 2:15 p.m.
 2:30 p.m.
 2:45 p.m.
 3:00 p.m.
  3:00 -  4:00 p.m.
  4:00 -  5:00 p.m.
EPA - Environmental Research Center
Classroom 2
Research Triangle Park, NC
Closed Session
Peer Review Program Orientation
Opening Session
Introduction and Discussion of
Complex Terrain Program Components
Plume Dispersion in the Wake of
Surface Obstacles
Break
Dispersion Modeling in the Arctic
Complex Terrain Field Studies
Lunch
Data Collection and Quality Assurance
Complex Terrain Data Dissemination
Complex Terrain Dispersion Climatology
Break
Introduction to Complex Terrain Model
Development Activities
Fluid Modeling Aspects of Complex
Terrain Model Development
Optional Tour of Fluid Modeling Faculty
                                                                   R. Patterson
                                                                   C. Coley
                                                                   F. Schiermeier

                                                                   A. Huber
P. Finkelstein
G. Holzworth

B. Greene
L. Truppi
G. Holzworth

P. Finkelstein

W. Snyder

W. Snyder

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                                            -2-
TIME
     TOPIC
SPEAKER
Wednesday, November 20, 1985
  8:00 -  8:15 a.m.
  8:15 -  9:15 a.m.
  9:15 - 10:00 a.m.
 10:00 - 10:15 a.m.
 10:15 - 10:45 a.m.
 10:45 - 11:15 a.m.
 11:15 - 11:45 a.m.

 11:45 - 12:00 a.m.
 12:00 -  1:30 p.m.
  1:30 p.m.

Thursday, November 21.  1985
  8:30 - 10:00 a.m.
 10:00 - 10:15 a.m.
 10:15 a.m.
Reviewers' Meeting
Complex Terrain Data Analysis
Complex Terrain Model Theory
Break
Continuation of Model Theory
Complex Terrain Model Evaluation
Future Directions for ASRL Complex
Terrain Model Development
Summary Statements
Lunch
Report Preparation Executive
Session
Reviewer Debriefing With
Dr. Alfred H. Ellison, Director, ASRL
Break
Report Preparation Executive
Session
   Closed Session
   T. Lavery
   D. Strimaitis

   D. Strimaitis
   D. Strimaitis
   P. Finkelstein
   F. Schiermeier

   Closed Session
   Closed Session
   Closed Session

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        APPENDIX B
EPA-ASRL PEER REVIEW PANEL
            35

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                                  REVIEW PANEL
                        COMPLEX TERRAIN DISPERSION MODEL
                              November 19-21, 1985


Name:                          Mr. Lawrence E. Niemeyer, Chairman
                               Consulting Meterologist
Work Address:                  Route 1, Box 367
                               Boone, North Carolina  28607
                               (704) 264-9140

Name:                          Dr. Sumner Barr
Work Address:                  Mail Stop D 466
                               Los Alamos National Laboratory
                               Los Alamos, New Mexico  87545
                               (505) 667-2636

Name:                          Mr. Donald Shearer
Work Address:                  TRC Environmental Consultants, Inc. - Denver
                               7002 S. Revere Parkway, Suite 60
                               Englewood, Colorado  80112
                               (303) 792-5555

Name:                          Dr. Brian Lamb
Work Address:                  Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
                               Washington State University
                               Pullman, Washington  99164
                               (509) 335-1526

Name:                          Dr. Jeffrey Weil
Work Address:                  Martin Marietta
                               145 South Rolling Road
                               Baltimore, Maryland  21227
                               (301) 247-0700 (ext. 359)

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       APPENDIX C
PROCESS EVALUATION REPORT
           37

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              ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES RESEARCH LABORATORY
                             PEER REVIEW

                 Process Evaluation Results for the
              Complex Terrain Dispersion Model  Program
     The Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory  (ASRL) of the  U.S.
Environmental  Protection  Agency  convened  a  panel   of  scientific
experts  on  November  19-21,  1985,  to  review the  Complex  Terrain
Dispersion Model  Program.   The panel  consisted of five  scientists.
These  reviewers  were  asked  to  evaluate  the process  involved  in
preparing  and  implementing  this  review.   This  report  presents  their
opinions of the process for this specific meeting.
     The evaluation  instrument  was designed to assess  the following
aspects  of   the  process:  1)  Preview  Materials;   2)  Process   and
Logistical  Information;  and 3) the  Review Meeting.   A section  was
also   provided   for   reviewers    to    give    their   comments   and
recommendations.   The  reviewers  were  instructed  to  respond to  15
items  by circling numbers  from 1  to  5  (with 1  representing  poor;
2-fair; 3-good; 4-very good; and 5-excellent).
     Table  presents  a summary of  the  reviewers'  ratings  for  the  15
items.  Several  aspects  of  the  review  were rated  as being excellent.
Most  categories  were rated  either good  or  very good.    Specific
comments   and   recommendations  made  by  the  reviewers   are  also
presented.

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                               Table  1
                          PROCESS  EVALUATION
PREVIEW MATERIALS
Number of Raters

1. Written Quality
2. Technical Quality
3. Utility for Outside
Reviewer
4. Adequacy of Time
to Preview
PROCESS & LOGISTICAL
INFORMATION
5. Meeting Purpose
6. Scheduling: Agenda/
Format
7. Reviewer Responsibilities
8. Overall P.R. Process
9. Timeliness of Notice
10. Timeliness of Logistical
Information
Poor











REVIEW MEETING
11. Adequacy of Time for Dis-
cussion with EPA Staff
12. Adequacy of Time for
Executive Sessions
13. Quality & Utility of
Presentations
14. Quality & Utility of
Materials Disseminated
15. Support Services &
Activities
TOTAL NUMBER OF RATINGS


**__



0
Fair












1


1


2
Good



*
3


1






2
_***_
2
***-^
4
1
13
Very Good
4
4
3
2

1
1
4
2
4
2

4
1

1
1
2
36
Excellent
1
1
2


4
3
1
3
1
3


2
	 	 **


2
23
     *"A lot of material  to cover in a few weeks."
    **"0ne presentation was poor; others ranged  from good  to
excellent."
   ***"Variable, from fair to excellent."
  ****"Again, variable."

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            APPENDIX D
ASRL RESPONSES TO REVIEWS' COMMENTS
                40

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                  UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                          ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES RESEARCH LABORATORY
                                 RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK
                                  NORTH CAROLINA 27711
DATE:
March 11, 1986
SUBJECT:  Response to Peer Reviewers'  Comments on CTMD Program
FROM:


TO:


Reviewers' Comments
Francis A. Schiermeier, Program Manager
Complex Terrain Model  Development Program (MD-80)

Ronald K. Patterson
ASRL Peer Review Coordinator (MD-59)
                                                                          ,„•;.-/
We suggest that future laboratory
simulation activities include in-
ternal wave effects for lee side
separation, providing guidance on
partitioning wave and turbulence
energies in field data, and study-
ing vertical motion structure over
more complex geometries such as
valleys,  (et seq, P. 8)

Further work is needed to examine
the wave effects and a method for
treating this problem must be de-
veloped before the model can be
applied in real situations.  (P. 9)

Perhaps the effects of other hills
could at least be explored in
sensitivity analyses, during the
remainder of the CTMD program.
(P. 10)

The use of average factors in place of
the line integrals present in the orig-
inal plume theory was recognized by the
panel as a necessary simplification for
computational efficiency.  However, it
requires further theoretical justifica-
tion and demonstration as to its equiv-
alence with the line integral approach.
(P. ID

While the approach is physically plaus-
ible, the results of plumes released
very near Hc should be carefully ana-
lyzed to confirm this approach.  In
particular, the thickness of the tran-
sition region near Hc has not yet been
documented.  (P. 12)
                                 ASRL Response

                                 We are currently  pursuing  activities
                                 in each of these  areas,  and continue to
                                 encourage interactions with other program
                                 personnel (outside FMF).
                                 We agree.   Work is underway  on  this
                                 problem, both at ERT and inhouse.
                                 Sensitivity analyses  are going  to  be
                                 performed (see recommendations), but  it's
                                 not clear that we have the data to separate
                                 out the effect of other hills on the  flow.
                                 We agree.   The sensitivity of the model
                                 output will be investigated with  respect
                                 to the use of terrain-averaged correction
                                 factors.
                                 We agree.  The thickness of the transition
                                 region has been an area of ongoing  investi-
                                 gation.

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Further use of the digitized tra-
jectories from the fluid modeling
results for different stability
conditions should be fully exploit-
ed in the final development of the
model,  (et seq, P. 12)

The present version of CTDM contains
considerable mathematical and numerical
detail, especially when compared to
other applied dispersion models.
A sensitivity analysis should be con-
ducted to aid in the simplification of
the model.  (P. 13-14)

It appears that a separate task could
be created with the objective of direct
interaction of the CTMD program with
other similar programs.  (P. 15)
We also recommend further testing of
the model include careful comparison
with other, possibly more sophisticated
models using the different models'
data archives.  (P. 16)

The most logical next step would be
to consider greater distances and
to conceive ways that limited field
experiments or laboratory simulations
can be employed to represent plume
behavior at larger distances.  (P. 17)

Such follow-on analyses should include
a comparison of the ground level  con-
centration "footprint" from the
with that of the freon tracer.
(P. 18)
The probability for either logic errors
or typing errors increases as the length
of the model programs increases.  A QA
effort is required to minimize errors in
the model.  (P. 21)
We agree.  We believe the treatment  of
the flow over the hill  as neutral  is a
shortcoming of the model.  We have en-
couraged use of the fluid modeling data
since they were collected.


See response to model sensitivity  topic
 on page 28.
During the entire CTMD program,  we  have
been interacting closely with the EPRI
Plume Model Validation and Development
(PMV&D) program and with the DOE Atmos-
pheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT)
program, even to the point of conducting
joint field programs with both.

This is precisely what was done  in  the
February 1986 workshop when invited
participants reported on exercising the
preliminary CTDM on their respective data
sets.

We agree and would appreciate any specific
suggestions as to which direction to proceed.
In this case, field experiments  would likely
be more useful than laboratory simulations.
We agree.  These analyses have not yet been
done because of problems with some of the
data and plume rise calculations, but they
will be, if possible.  Also, note that
frequently the releases of the two tracers
were above and below Hc and will  give very
different patterns.

We agree.  QA of completed model  code is a
standard procedure within ASRL.

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At some point in the evaluation
of the model, the model performance
should be discussed in the context
of the overall uncertainty of the
field data.  (P. 22)

While there are a great number of
problems requiring solution, there
is not an overwhelming requirement
to study the problem at length.
Engineering or best estimates are
sufficient to meet the requiremeants
of decision makers.  (P. 22)
Recent work on the modification
of the ISC model by ERT may have
been overlooked and needs to be
reviewed for pertinent information.
(P. 23)

Future work plans appeared to em-
phasize tests of the effects of build-
ing scales vs. boundary layer scales.
However, the panel believes the type
of work has received considerable
attention in past studies (P. 23)

Conclusions:  P 27-28

The model development requires addi-
tional attention to some specific
portions:

  1)  T-factor averages.
  2)  Values of adjustable constants
      (such as Lagrangian time scales),
  3)  Flow blockage for 2-dimensional
      ridges.

  4)  Flow above Hc and moderately
      stratified flow in general.
We agree.
goal.
A worthwhile and important
We believe it is very important to find
the proper balance between the depth of
the research investigation and the needs
of decision makers.  We have consulted
closely with the regulatory side of the
Agency and we will plan our research so
that both of these needs are adequately
met.

We have provided reviews of ERT modifi-
cations to the ISC model, have attended
meetings between ERT and OAQPS, and will
continue to seek further pertinent infor-
mation on ERT modifications.

Some study of building scales vs. boundary
layer scales is now ongoing.  The purpose
is to evaluate experimental arrangements
for our facility.  These tests provide a
necessary evaluation before we launch into
future studies with fixed scales.
We agree that all these need additional
attention and are either planned or are
in the midst of the effort.  Specifically •

New formulations for "T" factors are being
developed using other than potential flow
solutions.

Adjustable constants are being chosen
based upon an optimized parameter
adjustment scheme.  Use of the Lagrangian
time scale in very stable flow is being
reconsidered.

A new approach to flow blockage is being
developed inhouse.

Lateral displacement of the stream-
lines above and near Hc is a problem.

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  5)  Confirmation of the treatment
      of the Hc transition region.

  6)  Effects of upwind boundary
      conditions.
Similarly, with regard to model
applications, the following points
should be made:
1)
2)
3)
      The node! may need to be fur-
      ther simplified for regulatory
      use.
      Guidance will be required for
      the user to specify input data
      correctly.

      Diagnostic tools such as plume
      trajectories should be provided
The model testing follows recommended
procedures but more recent develop-
ments in this area could be incor-
porated.

The sensitivity analyses should be
carefully developed to test vari-
tions in model parameters and modules.
A workshop is recommended for model
intercomparisons on common data sets.
Future work should emphasize buoyant
plumes, building orientation effects,
stable plume cases; and in a general
sense, multiple building effects.
Further development and application
of the video processing technique is
recommended.
                                         New approaches using the Hunt-
                                         Mulhearn theory are being considered.

                                         Upwind boundary conditions are  very
                                         difficult to define in  complex  terrain,
                                         The data are being evaluated  to see
                                         if different approaches can be  taken
                                         to the problem.

                                         We agree with these points as well.
                                         Specifically -
The model  is being simplified,  and
a manual written to help the user
understand the underlying structure
of the model.

Both guidance and a front-end pre-
processor for input data are being
developed.

Better diagnostic tools will be
developed for use with the model.

We agree.   The most up-to-date pro-
cedures will be used in model testing
and validation.
                                         We agree.   We are planning  to  use  some
                                         innovative sensitivity  analyses, in-
                                         cluding the FAST (Fourier Amplitude
                                         Sensitivity Tests) to evaluate which
                                         inputs are most important.

                                         This would be a good idea,  but we  have
                                         no money in the budget  for  such a
                                         workshop.   We will try  to do so if
                                         funds are  available in  future  years.

                                         We agree with these needs.  We presently
                                         have plans for research into orientation
                                         effects and further development of the
                                         video processing techniques.   The  study
                                         of buoyant plumes, stable plume cases,
                                         and general multiple building  effects
                                         each present special difficulties. We
                                         are interested in these problems and will
                                         pursue them as time and budget permit.

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Recommendations:  (P. 29-31)               We take no issue with the long-range
                                           recommendations of the panel.   Pri-
                                           orities will have to reflect available
                                           funds and the needs of the regulatory
                                           side of EPA.  We had planned to start
                                           some of this work in FY-87, but recent
                                           budget cuts will put this research off
                                           at least one year.

Throughout the report were contained numerous recommendations regarding future
direction of efforts or expansion/redirection of present efforts.  Most of these
recommendations were addressed in the preceding ASRL response.  At the beginning
of the peer review, we asked that you provide such recommendations and appreciate
your diligence in providing them.  We will make our best effort to incorporate
as many as possible in both our present complex terrain program and in similar
follow-on programs.

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             APPENDIX E








   REVIEW OF THE PANEL REPORT AND



RESPONSES OF THE LABORATORY DIRECTOR
                 46

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     j           UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                        ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES RESEARCH LABORATORY
  ,tcf                           RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK
PRO                              NORTH CAROLINA 27711
DATE:     March 25, 1986

SUBJECT:  Peer Review Report on the Complex Terrain Modeling Program

FROM:     Jack H. Shreffler^J*-X.ff
          Deputy Director, AWL (MD-59)
TO:       Ronald K. Patterson
          TPRO, ASRL  (MD-59)

      I have  read the  draft peer-review report on the Complex Terrain
Model Development  (CTMD)  Program and the written response of the Program
Manager.  The  Reviewers seemed exceptionally well versed on the direction
and  results  of the research effort.

      The  Peer  Reviewers were uniformily laudatory concerning the CTMD
Program.  They recognized that the success of this research program was
due  in no small part  to effective long range planning and execution.  The
Program had  its origins in a planning workshop held in  1979 and attended
by a range of  EPA  and outside scientists.  According to the developed
scientific plan, a series of integrated laboratory, field, and theoretical
studies have been  carried out with almost unprecedented stability in
funding and  program direction.

      The  Program Manager, Frank Schiermeier, has responded fully to the
comments  and recommendations of the panel.  All significant comments
of the Reviewers centered on directions for future work in this area
of research.  Those comments along with the results of  a planning work-
shop held February 1986 will be folded together to determine the future
direction of the CTMD Program.

      Concerning the evaluation of the review process, Appendix C,
we should try  to make the preview material as useful and concise as
possible  so  that the  time that we allow seems adequate  to the reviewers.

cc:   F. Schiermeier
      C. Hosier

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