MTR-6362
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT SYSTEM:
INITIAL ANALYSIS
OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESIDUALS
FEBRUARY 1973 THE MITRE CORPORATION
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_
UNITED STATES^ENVIRONMEN-|',.L PROTECTION AGEN<§YP-/: '
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460 j^ f jjj L? A|j
May 2, 1973
OFFICE CF
RESEARCH AND MONITORING
SUBJECT: Research Report: SEAS Initial Analysis
of Environmental Residuals
FROM: Director, Environmental Studies Division, OR&M
TO: SEE DISTRIBUTION
Enclosed for your information is a copy of a. report, "Strategic
Environmental Assessment System: Initial Analysis of Environmental
Residuals." This is a product of a seminal study by MITRE Corporation
to identify, with the cooperation and assistance of experts within
EPA and other Federal Agencies, the important residuals within the
six categorical areas of EPA concern - air, water, solid waste,
pesticides, radiation and noise.
We recognize the difficult3.es in reaching consensus in a
judgmental sense on "important" residuals, both currently and
projected into the future. Nonetheless SEAS, as a prototype
system, will attempt to concentrate on a limited number of residuals
as a minimum set.
I also want to highlight for your information Section III
and Appendix C, "Selected Abstracts of Analysis and Research Efforts."
You nay also find this useful to your activities as a survey of
potentially useful techniques and models.
We welcome your comments at any tpne on both the taxonomies
and appendices embodied in this
Peter W. House
Enclosure
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DISTRIBUTION:
Assistant Administrator for Research and Monitoring
Regional Administrator, Region I
Regional Administrator, Region II
Regional Administrator, Region III
Regional Administrator, Region IV
Regional Administrator, Region V
Regional Administrator, Region VI
Regional Administrator, Region VII
Regional Administrator, Region VIII
Regional Administrator, Region
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MTR-6362
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT SYSTEM:
INITIAL ANALYSIS
OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESIDUALS
C. A. BISSELLE
S. A. HAUS
S. H. LUBORE
M. M. SCHOIL
S. L. WILCOX
Contract No.: 68-01-0784
Contract Sponsor: Environmental Studies Division
Office of Research and Monitoring
Environmental Protection Agency
Project No.: 2300
FEBRUARY 1973
THEE
MITRE
msma
This document was prepared for authorized distribution.
It has not been approved for public release.
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Approved for Project Distribution:
\ K.
S. H, Lubore
:."> -/ .
Approved for MITRE Distribution:
R. P. Ouellette
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ABSTRACT
The Environmental Studies Division of the Environmental
Protection Agency has undertaken the development of the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) aimed at providing EPA's
regulatory, legislative planning and research functions with fore-
casts of the long-range environmental impact of trends in popula-
tion growth and distribution, economic development, public policy
and technological change.
A prototype of this assessment system is scheduled for com-
pletion by November 1973. It is the goal of this prototype develop-
ment to prove the feasibility of the SEAS concept by concentrating
on a small number of environmental residuals which are classified
as important by the six categorical areas of EPA concern air,
water, solid waste, pesticides, radiation and noise. Thus, the
identification of these important residuals is a necessary first step
in developing prototype projections of future environmental trends
and their effects.
MITRE has completed an initial study to identify these impor-
tant residuals. The study consisted of three tasks: (1) the
development of preliminary taxonomies of residuals, (2) the reduc-
tion of the preliminary lists of residuals to the most important
residuals for each area of EPA concern based on interview of EPA
personnel, published literature and MITRE in-house expertise, and
(3) the identification of existing models and forecasting techniques
which may be of use in the SEAS development.
Criteria for selection of important residuals varied depending
upon the categorical area and the specialization of the individual
interviewed. Generally, however, the criteria related to human
health and welfare and effects upon other biota (e.g., toxicity, per-
sistence, bioaccumulation, prevalence and difficulty to control).
iii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I
SECTION II
SECTION III
SECTION IV
APPENDIX A
APPENDIX B
APPENDIX C
INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
STUDY OBJECTIVE
STUDY APPROACH
TAXONOMY OF RESIDUALS
INTRODUCTION
AIR POLLUTION
WATER POLLUTION
SOLID WASTES
PESTICIDES
RADIONUCLIDES
NOISE
SOURCES OF IMPORTANT RESIDUALS
SYNOPSIS OF POTENTIALLY USEFUL MODELS
ORGANIZATION
CLASSIFICATION OF MODEL SUBJECT AREAS
SUGGESTED METHODOLOGY FOR COMBINING RESIDUALS
TO DETERMINE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
BASIC APPROACH
COMBINING RESIDUALS
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
PRELIMINARY DRAFT TAXONOMIES OF RESIDUALS
INTERVIEW REPORTS
SELECTED ABSTRACTS OF ANALYSIS AND
RESEARCH EFFORTS
APPENDIX D BIBLIOGRAPHY
DISTRIBUTION LIST
VI
vi
1
1
3
4
7
7
8
10
10
16
16
20
20
29
29
30
43
43
44
46
49
69
143
233
241
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure Number
1
2
GENERALIZED SEAS CONCEPT
RETENTION OF PARTICULATE MATTER IN
LUNG IN RELATION TO PARTICLE SIZE
Page
2
11
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
XIII
XIV
XV
A-I
A-II
A-III
A-IV
A-V
A-VI
B-l
AIR POLLUTION RESIDUALS
WATER POLLUTION RESIDUALS
WATER POLLUTION CATEGORIES
SOLID WASTE RESIDUALS
PESTICIDE RESIDUALS
RADIONUCLIDE RESIDUALS
NOISE RESIDUALS
SOURCES OF SELECTED RESIDUALS
AIR MODELS
WATER MODELS
SOLID WASTE MODELS
PESTICIDE MODELS
RADIATION MODELS
NOISE MODELS
GENERAL MODELS
TAXONOMY OF AIR RESIDUALS
TAXONOMY OF WATER RESIDUALS
TAXONOMY OF SOLID WASTE RESIDUALS
TAXONOMY OF PESTICIDES
TAXONOMY OF RADIONUCLIDES
TAXONOMY OF NOISE RESIDUALS
LIST OF INTERVIEWEES
9
12
13
14
17
18
21
22
32
35
38
39
40
41
42
50
52
55
56
62
65
70
vi
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SECTION I
INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
A determination of present and future states of environmental
quality along with an assessment of the impact of industrial and man-
made pollution provide important input to the Environmental Protection
Agency's (EPA) Program planning, legislative, and regulatory options.
The Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA has initiated the
development of a systematic approach toward the assessment of the
long-range (10 to 20 year) environmental impact of human activities,
environmental control and regulatory actions. This structured approach,
called the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS), has as
its objective the determination of estimates of the long range environ-
mental impacts of various trends in population growth and distribution,
economic growth, public policy and technological developments. The
outputs from SEAS will help identify new areas of research needs and
pollution control and regulation requirements.
Realizing that available data impose limitations on a strictly
analytical approach to this assessment system, ESD has based the SEAS
concept upon an effective marriage of analytical modeling and expert
judgement. Various mixes of these two general types of assessment
methodology will permeate the six major components of SEAS which are
shown in Figure 1. These components are:
Change Agents - projections of future demands for goods and
services, forecasts of technology, regulatory
policies, population and business activity
projections, etc.
Processes - activities, either controlled by man or by nature,
which utilize resources to produce additional
altered resources or residuals.
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PROCESSES
R
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S
0
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. S J
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S
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ENVI
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POL
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OUTPUTS
FIGURE 1
GENERALIZED SEAS CONCEPT
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Resources
Residuals
Effects
Reactions
materials either man-made or found in nature
and which, are acted upon by processes to
produce additional resources or residuals.
Resources include partially finished goods
and consumer products. Additionally, land
may be considered a resource and land use a
process resulting in productive land and
spoiled land.
the potentially polluting byproducts of a
process. For the purpose of initial SEAS
development, residuals are classified according
to the six primary areas of EPA interest -
air, water, solid waste, pesticides, radiation
and noise.
alteration to the quantities or levels of
residuals may cause changes in the health,
environmental, socio-political and economic
state of the nation. When these changes are
the direct consequence of residuals without
intervention of human choice they are considered
effects.
ed J
- man's response to effects constitute the reactions
part of the overall SEAS concept. These
responses may take the form of social protest,
legislation, regulatory policy, increased
research emphasis and direction, and alteration
of consumer trends. The development of reactions
will be strongly dependent upon experts* judge-
ment of national response to altered environ-
mental quality.
It is intended that SEAS will provide an early warning system
whereby EPA, at both the national and regional levels may examine
alternative futures and more effectively develop long range plans.
STUDY OBJECTIVE
The development of a system with the potential magnitude and
complexity of SEAS is an incremental and somewhat iterative process.
An initial step in formulating the SEAS concept is to identify the
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types of residuals of most significant environmental concern. Upon
completion of this effort, the next step is to develop relationships
between future residual levels, change agents and processes. It is
also necessary to develop techniques for relating residual levels to
effects and subsequently to reactions.
Within this context, MITRE has been tasked by the Environmental
Studies Division to identify the most important residuals or groups
of residuals in each area of EPA concern: air, water, solid waste,
pesticides, radiation and noise. The development of taxonomies of
important residuals constitutes the principle objective of this study.
Secondary objectives include a preliminary assessment of the
availability of data to support analytical forecasting and effects
prediction, and identification of forecasting or modeling techniques
currently being utilized by various EPA groups. The approach taken
in fulfilling these objectives is briefly described below.
STUDY APPROACH
Three steps have comprised this MITRE effort: 1) the development
of preliminary taxonomies of residuals, 2) reduction of these prelim-
inary lists to the most important residuals in each area of concern,
and 3) the identification of existing models and forecasting techniques
of interest to EPA. The following briefly summarizes the approach
taken in each step.
MITRE's first task consisted of developing first-cut preliminary
taxonomies of residual factors designed to serve as a guide for further
discussion among MITRE, EPA, and other environmental experts. This
effort relied basically on in-house MITRE expertise gained from earlier
participation in generating taxonomies and indicators for EPA and other
Federal agencies together with a brief literature survey in each area.
Literature surveyed included standards and regulations where they exist,
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hearings on proposed legislation, reports on prevelance and toxicity
and other technical publications. The preliminary taxonomies consider
six categories of pollutants: air, water, solid wastes, pesticides,
radiation and noise. The initial taxonomies may be found in Appendix A.
A bibliography of literature used in this task is presented in
Appendix D.
The resulting draft taxonomies assume various forms and levels of
aggregation depending upon the depth of scientific research which had
been performed previously and the availability of information in the
specific area of interest. For example, the preliminary list of
pesticide residuals contained over 215 potential pollutants in 28
categories whereas the preliminary list for solid waste residuals
contained only 18 aggregations. To a large extent the level of aggre-
gation in these lists is indicative of the data available with regard
to the prevelance and deleterious effects of these residuals.
These taxonomies contain too many residuals for inclusion in the
preliminary SEAS effort. Reduction of the number of residuals to a
smaller group based on similarity of physical, chemical or other
characteristics was accomplished primarily through direct interviews
with some 44 experts in EPA, the Department of Agriculture, the
Atomic Energy Commission, the Department of Interior and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the Department of Commerce.
A list of persons interviewed along with detailed reports on each
interview is contained in Appendix B of this report.
Six problem areas were addressed during these interviews:
What are the 10 to 20 most important residuals or groups of
residuals in the interviewee's area of expertise and how would
these be rank ordered?
What criteria or reasoning is behind the interviewee's selection
of important residuals or groups of residuals?
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a What data are available regarding quantity, toxicity, distri-
bution, sources, transport mechanisms and ecological effects
of the identified important residuals?
What is the interviewee's assessment of future major problem
residuals not covered in his first-cut reduction of the taxonomy?
What models or forecasting techniques currently exist which
could be utilized in the development of SEAS?
If SEAS were available now would it be of use to the interviewee
in performing his technical function, and would geographic
.aggregation at a regional or national level be adequate for
this purpose?
The degree of completeness of answers to these questions was
varied and a function of research results available and interviewee's
mission. Within a given category of pollution not all of the experts
agreed as to which of the residuals were the several most important.
For instance, an aquatic biologist would include thermal loading as
a significant pollutant, whereas a specialist in public drinking water
supplies would not necessarily consider this an important factor.
Interview results were analyzed and two groups of residuals were
identified in each of the six areas of EPA interest. The first group
contains those residuals which seemed to be most important based on a
general consensus of the experts interviewed in each area. The second
group contains additional residuals which were identified as important
by these experts but which did not command a general agreement from all.
Within a given group, the residuals are listed alphabetically (except
in the case of radionuclides where atomic weight was used). These
lists of residuals along with criteria used by the intervoewees to
select then are presented in the following section of this paper.
Interviewee identification of useful pollution forecasting tech-
niques or models and of data sources proved to be less fruitful, and
so, the study was extended to include a brief review of technical
literature abstracts. The results of this review are presented in
Section III. Selected abstracts are included in Appendix C.
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SECTION II
TAXONOMY OF RESIDUALS
INTRODUCTION
As part of the SEAS effort MITRE personnel have developed prelim-
inary taxonomies of environmentally important residuals. This set of
residual factors constitute a significant input to the model formulation
process. An important residual is one which can strongly affect human
health or welfare or have an adverse effect upon the environment in
general-.
Residuals are defined as the undesirable output, effect, or out-
come of a process (major activity of a socideconomic system). There
are, of course, time delays involved since the initial output of a
process may consist primarily of a useful product which is non-injurious
to the environment; at some later date what was once beneficial can
become a nuisance or health hazard.
As an example, one can consider the manufacture of an automobile.
The conventional primary residuals in this case would be air and water
pollutants released during the production (assembly) and preproduction
(extraction, refining, smelting, forging, rolling, and shipping types of
operations for steel, aluminum, glass, plastics, rubber components) stages,
Secondary residuals occur during the vehicle's use in the form of exhaust
emissions, and noise. Eventually the automobile becomes useless and is
junked, thus, providing a tertiary residual, a bulky solid waste.
There is also the question of location. The result of a given
process may be beneficial in one place whereas the same product in
another location may present serious problems. A typical example
involves radioisotopes. Used in a hospital, they may serve therapeutic
purposes, but an accidental uncontrolled release of these same chemicals
into a sewer system might contaminate a downstream drinking water
supply.
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Generally the following criteria related to human health and welfare
or the health of other biota were employed in selecting the most impor-
tant residuals: a) toxicity, b) persistence, c) bioaccumulation,
d) prevalence (amount), and e) difficulty of control (either technolog-
ical or economic). The listings for the six different categories of
important residuals identified in this study are presented in the
following sections along with the rationale for their selection.
AIR POLLUTION
The list of air pollution residuals is found in Table I. The
pollutants listed in the first group are believed to be the leading
offenders in terms of human health effects. Three of them - CO,
and SOX - have been discussed in criteria documents and ambient air
quality standards have been issued by EPA. Carbon monoxide and nitrogen
oxides have been included on the list of pollutants for which auto
exhaust standards have been set, while SO and NO are covered by the
3C X
stationary source performance standards (emissions from selected types
of processes) . Ambient air quality standards are in the process of
being formulated for asbestos, beryllium, fluorides, and mercury.
Arsenic, cadmium and lead appear in the first group because of their
high toxicity and their widespread use in a variety of compounds and
applications.
Items in the second grouping are not considered to be quite as
harmful or the effects are not as well understood. Ambient air quality
standards have been issued for hydrocarbons and photochemical oxidants
(principally ozone) but the variety of the former and the complexity
of the photochemical reaction make it difficult to arrive at strong
conclusions as to health effects regarding these two categories of
pollutants. Ambient air quality standards for odors are in the process
of being formulated but this area is more concerned at the present time
with inconvenience rather than health effects.
In both groups several residuals are considered especially hazardous
in the form of very fine particulates (<2 microns) . The ambient air
8
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TABLE I
AIR POLLUTION RESIDUALS
FIRST GROUP
*
Arsenic
Asbestos
*
Beryllium
Cadmium
Carbon Monoxide
Fluorides
*
Lead
Mercury
Nitrogen Oxides
Sulfur Oxides
SECOND GROUP
*
Antimony
Chromium
Hydro carb ons (e.g., BAP )
Iron
Nickel
Odors
Photochemical Oxidants (e.g., Ozone)
Selenium
*
Vanadium
Zinc*
Especially in the fine particulate (respirable) form.
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quality standards for particulates are presented in a general manner
(total mass per unit volume) without regard to particular chemical com-
position or size distribution. Recent findings indicate that certain
substances are much more hazardous as particulates when they are in a
very fine particulate state. Figure 2 depicts degree of human lung
retention of fine particulates as a function of particle size.
WATER POLLUTION
The list of water pollution residuals is found in Table II. There
was a fairly good consensus among the water experts as to which pollu-
tants belonged in the first group. Most of those selected are very toxic
and have well defined adverse health effects for both human beings and
other biota. Those substances in the second group were chosen for several
reasons: a) a potential future problem selenium, viruses; b) an
environmental problem--zinc, thermal loading; c) difficulties in moni-
toring - bacteria, viruses; d) number of spills and cost to clean up
oil and its derivatives; and e) inclusion in EPA's draft version of
"candidates for a Toxic Substances List."
A suggested classification scheme for categorizing water pollutants
is shown in Table III. This list is presented to suggest a possible
means of aggregating various water pollutants should the list of resi-
duals themselves prove to be too long. The categories shown each
contain pollutants with similar control technologies.
SOLID WASTES
The list of solid waste residuals is presented in Table IV. Those
items appearing in the first group are generally considered to be the
most important solid wastes from an environmental health point of view.
They represent chemically complex substances which are produced in
large quantities, have reasonably high toxicities, and are difficult
to dispose of since there are generally no natural means to decompose
them or reduce their harmful effects.
10
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RETENTION (%)
80
1.0
2.0 3.0 4.0
PARTICLE SIZE (MICRONS)
REFERENCE: "Lung Deposition of Fine Dust Particles,"
Dautrebande, L., Beckman, H., and Walkenhorst.W.,
AMA Arch. Ind. Hyg., 16^, 179 (1957).
FIGURE 2
RETENTION OF PARTICULATE MATTER IN
LUNG IN RELATION TO PARTICLE SIZE
11
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TABLE II
WATER POLLUTION RESIDUALS
FIRST GROUP
Arsenic
Boron
BOD
Cadmium
Chromium
Cyanide
Lead
Mercury
Nitrates*
SECOND GROUP
Ammonium Hydroxide
Bacteria*
*
Chloramine
*
Chlorine
Ferric Chloride
Vt
Ferric Sulfate
Methyl Hercaptan
Oil and its derivatives
*
Phenols
Phosphates
Selenium
Thermal Loading
Viruses
Zinc*
Toxicity <10ppm, Survival time <48hr; data taken from draft version
of EPA "Candidates for Toxic Substances list".
*Appears on 1972 revised list of EPA Drinking Water Standards.
12
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TABLE III
WATER POLLUTION CATEGORIES
I. SUSPENDED SOLIDS
A. ORGANIC
B. INORGANIC
C. MIXED
II. DISSOLVED ORGANICS
A. BOD
B. REFRACTORY
C. TOXIC
III. DISSOLVED INORGANICS
A. NUTRIENTS
B. TOXIC ANIONS
C. TOXIC CATIONS
D. SALTS
IV. PATHOGENIC MICRO-ORGANISMS
A. BACTERIA
B. VIRUSES
V. ENERGY
A. THERMAL
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TABLE IV
SOLID WASTE RESIDUALS
FIRST GROUP
Industrial Sludge
Inorganic Chemicals
Mine Tailings
Municipal Sludge
Organic Chemicals
Slag and Ash
SECOND GROUP
Bulky Wastes
Feed Lot Wastes
Paper
Plastics
Putrescible Substances
Rubber
14
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Industrial and municipal sludges represent the filterable materials
from the liquid waste streams of a variety of industrial operations
and city sewage systems respectively. Inorganic chemicals can be in
a solid form or in the liquid state if the latter are packaged. Mine
tailings derive from the mining of fuels, construction materials, metalic
ores, and other minerals. The tailings from coal and phosphate mining
(acid drainage) and uranium mining (radioactivity) present especially
severe problems. Organic chemicals include natural substances such as
oil as well as synthetic organics such as pesticides and explosives.
Plastics are treated separately and are included in the second group.
Slag and ash are the byproducts of molten metal operations and incinera-
tion (municipal, power plant, and industrial) respectively.
The second group contains items which present more of an economics-
of-disposal problem than a health hazard. Bulky wastes include autos,
refrigerators, and stoves; these create eyesores and public nuissances
and are expensive to dispose of or recycle. Although feed lot wastes
constitute a problem of tremendous volumes of nutrients and BOD loading,
they do not present an ultimate disposal problem. Unlike persistent
pesticides and long-lived radionuclides, feed lot wastes in scattered
small quantities will decompose naturally and quickly into harmless
substances. Because of accumulation factors, the dilution approach is
only a short-term expedient for "disposing" of most persistent, toxic
substances. Paper and plastics are a problem in that they consitute
such a large percentage of the volume of municipal trash. This problem
will continue as packaging methods become more elaborate and as more and
more items are individually wrapped. When burned, some plastics emit
noxious gases harmful to human health and/or the incinerators. Rubber
in the form of old tires presents problems of large bulk, difficulty
in land fill areas due to a tendency to "float" to the surface after
burial, and noxious, unaesthetic smoke when incinerated. One of the
major expenses in a dry trash recycling plant is the cleaning of
putrescible materials (foods and other decayable substances) from
bottles and tin cans.
15
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PESTICIDES
The list of pesticide residuals is shown in Table V. All of the
compounds listed in the first group have a greater than one year persis-
tence. All but DDT which has a medium (100-1000 mg/kg) toxicity in terms
of a LD-50 oral dose to rats and picloram which has a greater than
1000 mg/kg LD-50 to rats have a high toxicity (<100 mg/kg) measured as
an LD-50 oral dose to rats. All but picloram have a high (>5 million
pounds) annual use by farmers. Although DDT sales have been declining
in recent years and a partial ban has been placed on its domestic use,
it has been retained in the first group because of its past tremendous
widespread domestic use, its continued use overseas, and its long per-
sistence (several years). Dioxin is an extremely toxic impurity occuring
principally in the widely used 2, 4, 5-T. The toxicity of Dioxin is
measured in fig/kg. Although picloram has a relatively low direct toxicity,
its herbicial properties are great enough to cause relatively thorough
defoliation wherever applied thus depriving wildlife of food and habitat.
Moreover, it is one of the faster growing pesticides in terms of percent
increase in sales volume.
Some of the pesticides in the second group are just as toxic, if
not more so, as those in the first group and in many cases they have a
high persistence. However, the combination of toxicity, persistence,
bioaccumulation and prevalence was generally not considered to be as
severe. A trend to be watched is the gradual phasing out of the toxic,
persistent organochlorine pesticides and their replacement by highly
toxic, but less persistent organophosphorus pesticides.
RADIONUCLIDES
The list of radionuclide residuals is shown in Table VI. Of the
more than 200 fission and activation products generated during the fission
process, only relatively few are significantly dangerous to man. The
danger is a function of the amount produced, the half-life, the critical
pathway, type and energy of radiation emitted, and the biological
affinity for a particular isotope. Except for Co-60 which is primarily
16
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TABLE V
PESTICIDE RESIDUALS
FIRST GROUP
Organochlorines
DDT
Dieldrin
Heptachlor
Heptachlor Epoxide
Toxaphene
Organophosphorus
Parathion/Paraoxon
Herbicides
Dioxin (an impurity in phenoxy group)
Picloram
SECOND GROUP
Organochlorines Fungicides
Aldrin Organic Mercury Compounds
BHC Rodenticides
Bulan Sodium Fluoroacetate
Chlordane Thallium Sulfate
Dilan Zinc Phosphide
Endosulfon
Endrin
Isodrin
Lindane
Mirex
Nonachlor
PCB
ProIan
Strobane
TDE
Organopho sphorus
Disulfotan
EPN
Guthion
Methyl Parathion
Phorate
Herbicides
Arsan
Disodium Methyl Arsenate
Paris Green
Arsenic Acid
Arsenic Trioxide
Paraquat
Sodium Arsenite
17
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TABLE VI
RADIONUCLIDE RESIDUALS
FIRST GROUP
Cobalt - 60
Krypton - 85 (1.5%)*
Strontium - 90 (5.8%)
Iodine - 129 (1.0%)
Iodine - 131 (2.9%)
Cesium - 137 (5.9%)
SECOND GROUP
Hydrogen - 3 (Tritium)
Ruthenium - 106
Cesium - 134
Barium - 140
Lanthanum - 140
Cerium - 144
Radon - 222
Radium - 226
Numbers in parentheses represent effective percent fission yield;
Nuclear Chemical Engineering, M. Benedict and T. H. Pigford, McGraw-Hill,
New York, N.Y. (1957).
18
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due to neutron activation of trace amounts of cobalt deposited in the
primary coolant from the reactor vessel, the isotopes listed in the
first group are reactor fission products. They all have high effective
percent fission yields (after the very short-lived precursors of the
same atomic mass have decayed). Except for the 8-day half life of 1-131,
they all have half lives of more than 5 years. This particular isotope
has been retained in the first group despite its short life since it is
highly volatile and it is the prime contributor to thyroid dose. The
much longer lived 1-129 is primarily a problem at fuel reprocessing plants
(by this time most of the 1-131 would have decayed). Strontium-90 is
of particular significance because of its chemical similarity to calcium
and its tendency to damage the blood forming processes in bone marrow.
Strontium-90 is also the most widely monitored radionuclide. Gaseous
Kr-85 is one of the biggest airborne releases (in terms of curies) from
fuel reprocessing plants. Cesium-137 is a major airborne and water-
borne release from power plants as well as one of the principle water
effluents from fuel reprocessing plants.
In the second group all but tritium, radon-222, and radium-226
are fission products which constitute major releases from either nuclear
power plants or fuel reprocessing plants. Some tritium is produced by
the activation of trace amounts of deuterium in the cooling water. Most
of the tritium released during the nuclear fuel cycle comes from neutron
activation of chemical additives in pressurized water reactor operations.
Lithium is added as a pH control while boron is present as a reactivity
shim. The two neutron reactions producing tritium are: Li-6 (n,a )
and B-10 (n, 2 a). Although tritium is produced in relatively great
quantities and has a half-life slightly over 12 years, it is not believed
to have a long biological half-life since tritiated water passes rather
quickly through the body. The radon and radium isotopes are principle
radioactive emissions from uranium mining and milling operations. The
other isotopes in the second group are major releases from either
nuclear power plants or fuel reprocessing operations.
19
-------
NOISE
The list of noise residuals is given in Table VII. The items listed
are not residuals in the sense implied with the other listings. Here are
presented a number of sources of noise. The criteria for selecting a
first or second group source are somewhat more subjective than for the
other residuals. The criteria were related to the number of people involved,
the intensity of the noise and its damage to the individual, and one's
option of escaping or avoiding a particular source. Amplified enter-
tainment noise was mentioned by several experts as a potentially serious
problem. Unmuffled farm machinery is the cause of hearing loss to many
farmers. The other sources are the topics of published studies by EPA.
SOURCES OF IMPORTANT RESIDUALS
The important residuals identified as the First Group in each of
the taxonomies included in this section are generated as the result
of diverse natural and production processes. The SEAS methodology
most likely will relate each of these residuals to some process/resource
interaction. Table VIII enumerates the principal sources of residual
formation for the air and water pollutants. The First Group pesticide
residuals are all synthetic organics generated by production
processes which are conducted soley for this purpose. The First Group
radiation residuals are all produced in the generation of electric
power by nuclear fission. The solid waste and noise residuals are
source oriented in their respective taxonomies.
For several of the air pollutants classified as hazardous, MITRE
is currently compiling source information which includes quantitative
emissions data. The results of this study are published in "A Survey
of Emissions and Controls for 'Hazardous* and Other Pollutants,"
MITRE Working Paper Number 10113, Revision I, January 20, 1973.
20
-------
TABLE VII
NOISE RESIDUALS
FIRST GROUP
Airport Noise
Amplified Entertainment
Construction Equipment
Industrial Noise
SECOND GROUP
Farm Equipment
Household Appliances
Recreational Vehicles
Urban Transportation
21
-------
TABLE VIII
SOURCES OF SELECTED RESIDUALS
Residual Sources
Arsenic Natural Sources:
Sea water
Bio-accumulated in some acquatic creatures, e.g.,
shrimp
Production Sources:
By-product of smelting of lead, copper and gold
ores and to a lesser extent nickel, cadmium and
zinc
Lesser Sources:
Metal pickling and Gray Iron Foundries
Soldering
Glass Manufacturing and Etching
Metal plating
Arsenical pigments
Coal burning
Detergents
Insecticides:
Lead Arsenate
Recommended for: current, gooseberry, apple,
grape, pear, plum and prune
Calcium Arsenate
Recommended for: strawberry and asparagus
Paris Green
Recommended for: nonagricultural land
Herbicides
Sodium, calcium and zinc arsenites, and organic
arsenicals used primarily on cotton crops
Desiccants
Arsenic acid used primarily on cotton
Asbestos Natural Sources:
Asbestos deposits
Soils near asbestos mines
Production Sources:
Asbestos mining
Asbestos products
Cement, floor tile, asbestos paper, insulating
materials, friction materials, textiles, paints,
roof coating, caulks, asbestos board, plastics
Pulp Mills
22
-------
Residual
Beryllium
TABLE VIII (Continued)
Source
Natural Sources:
Found in relatively small quantities which are
primarily compounds of beryllium oxide
Production Sources:
_ Beryllium mining, refining and machining create
beryllium dust and soluble oxides
Beryllium-copper alloys and Gray Iron Foundries
Fluorescent tubes (use discontinued in 1949)
Rocket fuel additive
Coal (1.5 to 2.5 ppm)
Boron
BOD
Natural Sources:
Borax (sodium borate)
Colemanite (calcium borate)
Production Sources:
Neutron absorber in nuclear installations
Wood weatherproofing
Fabric fireproofing
Glass and porcelain manufacture
Leather tanning
Carpet manufacture
Photographic chemicals
Artificial gems
Bactericide - Fungicide
Soap and Detergents
High energy fuel additive
Coal combustion
Natural Sources:
Utilization of oxygen in water by the natural meta-
bolic processes of organisms in the presence of
nutrients, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus
Production Sources:
Major contributing industries:
Paper and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products
Food and kindred products
Textile mill products
23
-------
TABLE VIII (Continued)
Residual
Cadmium
Carbon
Monoxide
(principle
source is
incomplete
combustion)
Source
Natural Sources:
Found primarily in zinc deposits
In soil at .55 to 2.45 ppm
Water: Sea water (.075 - .32 ppb)
Soft water
Natural (600 - 14,600 mg/1)
Municipal (0 - 77,000 mg/1)
Private Dwellings (1,100 - 140,000 mg/1)
Production Sources:
Dusts, fumes and mists from zinc, copper and lead
refinery processes
Electroplating processes
Cadmium-nickel alloys
Cadmium-silver-copper alloys
Several solders
Pigment for paints, ceramics and textiles
Super phosphate fertilizers (50 to 170 ppm)
Pesticides - fungicides and insecticides
Nickel-cadmium batteries
Nuclear reactor control
Cadmium soup - stabilizer for polyvinyl chloride (PCV)
Diethyl cadmium used in production of tetraethyl lead
Semiconductors
Blast Furnaces - Iron, Steel
Natural Sources:
Forest fires
Volcanos
Marine sources:
Kelps
Hydrozoan jellyfish
Photochemical degradation of various reactive organic
compounds in the atmosphere
Production Sources:
Combustion for power and heat or fuel combustion in
transportation - mobile sources
Industrial processes
Foundries
Petroleum refineries
Kraft paper mills
Carbon black production
Steel mills
Formaldehyde production
24
-------
TABLE VIII (Continued)
Residual Source
Carbon Production Sources (continued)
Monoxide Solid waste combustion
(continued) Incineration
Open burning
Metal conical burners
Miscellaneous combustion
Building fires
Coal refuse bank fires
Agricultural burning
Chromium Production Sources:
Metal pickling
Plating
Aluminum anodizing
Tanning
Pigments for paints, dyes, ceramics
Paper
Photographic chemicals
Explosives
Corrosion inhibitors
Sewage and sludge treatment
Asbestos Mining
Coal combustion
Cyanides Production Sources:
Gas works
Coke ovens
Scrubbing of gases from steel plants
Metal cleaning
Electroplating
Chemical industry
Pesticides
Hydrogen cyanide used as an insecticide and
rodenticide
Fluorides Natural Sources:
Consitiuent of igneous and sedimentary rock
Extracted from fluorspar, cyrolite, and fluorapatite
Earth's crust in concentrations of from 20 to 1,620
ppm and in a few areas as high as 8,300 ppm
Natural waters especially in areas with high soil
fluorides
Volcanic emissions in gaseous and solid form
Foods in relatively low concentrations
25
-------
TABLE VIII (Continued)
Residual Source
Fluorides Production Sources:
(continued) Grinding, drying and calcining fluoride-containing
minerals
Dusts from manufacture of phosphate fertilizers and
waste liquors and slurries from wet-process
phosphoric acid
Gases from manufacture of phosphorus and phosphate
feed supplements
By-product of Aluminum, Zinc, Copper and Lead Refining
Fluorspar used as flux in steelmaking
Emission from firing of clay brick, tile, pottery
and cement
Manufacture of glass, enamel and fiberglass
Combustion of coal (.001 - .048%)
Hydrogen fluoride and boron trifluoride used in
production of high-octane gasoline
Coating of sand molds in metal-casting operations
Coating of welding electrodes
Manufacture of uranium fuels
Rocket fuels
Etching - Hydrofluoric Acid Production
Metal pickling
Electropla ting
Tanning
Insecticides - sodium fluoride, sodium fluorosilicate,
barium fluorosilicate - on fruit trees
Herbicide - trifluoralin
Rodenticide - organic fluoride compounds
Water treatment
Fluorinated toothpastes, mouth washes, etc.
Lead Natural Sources:
Lead ore deposits
Soils at 2 - 200 ppm
Airborne lead containing dusts (10 - 15 ppm)
Contained in gases diffusing from the earth's crust
(7.1 x 10~3 dpm*/kg)
Production Sources:
Storage batteries
Gasoline antiknock additives
Pigments - paint, dyes, etc.
* Disintegrations per minute.
26
-------
TABLE VIII (Continued)
Residual
Lead
(Continued)
;ercurv
Source
Production Sources (Continued):
Ammunition
Solders
Cable coverings
Caulking lead
Type metal and sheet lead
Copper, Zinc, Nickel and Lead refining
Pipes, traps and bends
Brass and bronze
Weights and ballast
Bearing metals
Plating
Insecticides
Bearing metals and Gray Iron Foundries
Coal combustion
Natural Sources:
Ores (cinnabar)
Production Sources:
Ifine dusts
Hercurie ore refining
By-product of zinc, copper and gold smelting
Dental amalgams
Mercury batteries
Electrolytic preparation of chlorine and caustic
soda
Paints (pigments)
Pharmaceuticals (antiseptics, antibiotics, diuretics)
Agricultural (fungicides, herbicides, insecticides)
Mercury-arc and fluorescent lamps and neon signs
Electric controls(mercury switches)
Thermometers, barometers, manometers, pyrometers,
and hydrometers
Precision casting in jewelry manufacturing
Explosive and fireworks
Embalming preparations
Spermicidal jellies
Catalysts in preparing organic compounds
Mercury boilers
Felt manufacture
Leather tanning
Incinerators
Coal combustion
27
-------
TABLE VIII (Concluded)
Residuals
Nitrates
Sources
Natural Sources:
End product of the aerobic stabilization of organic
nitrogen
Production Sources:
Fertilizers
Fertilizer manufacture by-products
Cesspool leaching
Nitrogen Natural Sources:
Oxides Biological reactions (bacterial action)
Nitrogen/oxygen reactions in upper atmosphere
Forest fires
Silage gas
Production Sources:
Combustion for power and heat
Fuel combustion in transportation - mobile sources
Refuse incineration
Smoldering coal refuse banks
Nitric acid manufacturing
Electroplating
Photoengraving
Welding (oxyacetylene and electric arc)
Metal cleaning
Explosive detonation
Rocket fule production
Nitration of cellulose (film production)
TNT production
Miscellaneous
Building fires
Agricultural burning
Sulfur
Oxides
Production Sources:
Combustion of fossil fuels for power and heat
Smelting of ores (copper, nickel, etc.)
Petroleum refineries
Refuse incineration
Paper making (pulp mills)
Smoldering coal refuse banks
Sulfuric acid manufacturing
Iron and steel mills (coke processing)
Refrigeration plants
Fruit processing (raisins)
28
-------
SECTION III
SYNOPSIS OF POTENTIALLY USEFUL MODELS
A review of abstracts was conducted to identify research and
analysis efforts potentially useful in the development of SEAS.
Attention was primarily focused on compiling a list of models which
may be of value in the formulation of the SEAS design. Other pertinent
information, such as data sources, forecasting techniques, indices, '
and emission rates, located during the review has been included.
This review was performed in order to present a comprehensive,
organized list of research and analysis efforts which pertain
to the areas with which SEAS is concerned. A future effort will be
required to assess the full utility of the identified research results
to SEAS. Some of the models identified were in the process of being
developed according to their abstracts and may or may not exist in a
completed form at the present time. However, using this review as
a base, it will be possible to identify those areas in which existing
techniques are available and those areas in which new techniques will
have to be developed.
ORGANIZATION
For ease of reference, the models have been grouped into seven
categories. These categories are air, water, solid waste, pesticides,
radiation, noise, and general.
The first six categories refer to the six types of residuals
discussed in this paper. Models which deal primarily with one of these
areas have been placed in the appropriate category. The seventh
category, general, includes models which overlap several of the residual
types and models which do not fit into any of the residual categories,
such as a predator-prey model.
29
-------
Each category has been further broken down according to the
primary subject of the model. For example, water models are grouped
as water demand models, dispersion models, water quality models, etc.
Within each category all models have been numbered consecutively.
The numbers are preceded by a letter identifier, i.e., A for air,
W for water, S for solid wastes, P for pesticide, R for radiation,
N for noise, and G for general.
Since few models fall precisely into one subcategory, a matrix
has been constructed to identify the major subjects with which each
model deals. One matrix has been generated for each category and
describes all models included in that category. The matrices appear
at the end of this section. The synopsis of the models appears in
Appendix C.
CLASSIFICATION OF MODEL SUBJECT AREAS
Each matrix is divided into seven subject areas. These areas
are the model, demand, generation of residual, transport, result,
effect and reaction, and miscellaneous. The content of each subject
area is discussed below.
The model contains a model identification number and a concise
model name. The model identification number references the model
number listed in the synopsis.
Demand refers to those models which determine future requirements
and supplies of various resources, such as water and land. In addition
these models estimate transportation requirements and economic growth
factors, such as technological change, alternative industrial develop-
ment, population growth, etc.
Generation of residuals refers to models which describe the
processes which lead to the production of residuals and the kind of
residual produced. This includes types and amounts of auto emissions
30
-------
as a function of trip length, solid waste generated by a community,
emissions by industry, etc. In general, it deals with processes
such as extraction, production, distribution, consumption, and disposal.
Where possible the generation of residuals has been divided into
business, community, and transportation sources. Models which are
vague about the source are listed as general.
Transport refers to models which describe the mechanism by which
the residuals are dispersed in the environment. Urban diffusion models,
water dispersion models, and food chain models belong in this category.
Result refers to those models which predict the amount, concen-
tration, and location of residuals in the environment. Models which
describe the quality of the water, the air, and the land are also
included here.
Effects refers to non-controllable actions based on some level
of environmental quality. For example, the impact of a given level
of water quality on aquatic life is an effect. Reaction refers to
changes brought about in response to environmental quality. For
example, a political decision to tax polluters to improve water quality
is a reaction. Effect models and reaction models have been classified
together because the available literature was not of sufficient detail
to allow their separation.
*
Miscellaneous is used to identify information about data sources ,
model validation tests, pollution indices, and government control
requirements. In addition, it includes a column to indicate those
items which are not models. The matrices are presented in Tables IX
through XV.
Data sources do not include environmental data bases listed in
Environmental Information Systems Directory, Volume 1, No. 1, July-
December 1972, EPA.
31
-------
OJ
ro
TABLE IX
AIR MODELS
DEMAND
GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
, , 7 ;
RESULT
EFF
RE
ACTIONS
-
A-l RAPS
A-2 Regional Air Quality Model
A-3 Time Concentrations of Various
Pollutants
A-4 Connecticut Air Pollution
A-5 Economic Model for Abatement
A-6 OAF Regional Economic Model
A-7 Evaluation of Cost of Alternative
Strategies
A-8 Air Pollution Control Model
A-9 Cost Effectiveness Model
A-10 Mesoscale Mode of Atmospheric
A-ll Urban Air Pollution Dynamics
A-12 APRAC-IA Urban Diffusion Model
A-13 Climatological Dispersion Model
A-14 Urban Atmospheric Dispersion Model
A-15 Urban Air Pollution Model
A-16 Multi-Source System
A-17 Computer Control System
A-18 Chicago Air Pollution
A- 19 Urban Atmosphere
A-20 Depth of Mixing Layer
A-21 Mathematic Models
A-22 Urban Model for CO
A-23 S02 Model
A-24 Urban Diffusion Process
A-25 Urban Circulation
*
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TABLE IX
AIR MODELS (Continued)
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DEMAND
GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
RESULT
EFFECTS AND
REACTIONS
MISCELLANEOUS
MODEL
A-26 Aspects of Current Models
A-27 Cllmatological Model
A-28 Multiple Sources
A-29 Dispersion of Atmospheric
Contaminants
A- 30 Dispersion from Urban Area Sources
A-31 Diffusion of Aerosols
A-32 Sensitivity of Air Quality
Prediction
A-33 LA Air Pollution Model
A-34 San Francisco Model
A-35 Urban Diffusion Model
A-36 General Atmospheric Model
A-37 Atmospheric Diffusion Model
A-38 Urban Air Pollution Model
A-39 Urban Boundary Layer
A-40 Urban Pollution
A-41 Power Plants
A-42 Multiple-Source Models
A-43 Continuous Area Source
A-44 Grid Model
A-45 Urban Diffusion Model
A-46 Ankara, Turkey
A-47 Photochemical Pollutants
A-48 Photochemical Smog
A-49 AQUIP Model
A-50 Air Resource Management
/
-------
TABLE IX
AIR MODELS (Concluded)
MODEL
A-51 Selective Controls
A-52 Emissions and Air Quality
A-53 Transportation Study
A-54 Urban Planning to Reduce Pollution
A-55 Optimal Urban Forms
A-56 Land Use Activity Allocation Model
A-57 Air Pollution Land Use
A-58 Free Transit
A-59 HIWAY Model
A-60 Hypothetical Simulation
A-61 Land Use Planning
A-62 Emission Inventory
A-63 Nationwide Inventory of Air
Pollutant Emissions
A-64 Atmospheric Dispersion Estimates
A-65 NAPCA File
A-66 Nationwide Emissions from Gasoline
Fuel Additives
A-67 Forecasting Emissions
A-68 Forecasting Transportation
Emissions
A-69 Tests of Air Pollution Models
A-70 Aspects of Current Air Pollution
Models
A -71 National Environmental Index
DEMAND
GENERATION
Of RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
RESULT
EFFECTS AND
REACTIONS
MISCELLANEOUS
f
-------
TABLE X
WATER MODELS
OJ
Ol
DEMAND
GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
RESULT
EFFECTS AND
REACTIONS
MISCELLANEOUS
MODEL
W-l River Basin Model
W-2 Susquehanna River
W-3 Yakima River
W-4 Regional Trade
W-5 Colorado River
W-6 Mississippi River Basin
W-7 Water Quality in River Basin
W-8 Water Quality in Estuary
W-9 Water Quality in Streams and Canals
W-10 Water Quality Control
W-ll Regional Water Quality
W-12 Stream Quality
W-13 Water Quality in Coastal Waters
W-14 River Basin Quality
W-15 Water Quality Interbasin System
W-16 Marine Waste
W-17 Salinity in Upper Colorado Basin
W-18 Water Quality Modelling
W-19 Water Quality in Delaware River
Estuary
W-20 Hydrologic Modelling of Ashley
Valley
W-21 Evolutionary River Model
W-22 Modelling and Control of Water
Pollution
W-23 Thermal Effects on River Systems
W-24 Stream Processes
W-25 Connecticut River Pollution
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TABLE X
WATER MODELS (Continued)
DEMAND
..-,-,- , ,
GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
. , ,
RESULT
. . ,
EFFECTS AND
REACTIONS
MISCELLANEOUS
MODEL
W-26 Economics of Water Quality Control
W-27 Water Quality Management
W-28 Public Decisions Model
W-29 River Basin Management
W-30 Waste Treatment
W-31 Large Watershed
W-32 Water Resources Management
W-33 Hydrologic-Economic Flow
W-34 Water Reservoir System
W-35 Polluted River System
W-36 Pollution Control
W-37 Water Resource Planning
W-38 Pollutant Transport in Tidal Waters
W-39 Dispersion in the Ocean
W-40 Dispersion in Well-Mixed Estuaries
W-41 Regional Water Quality
W-42 Dispersion Model for a Stream
W-43 Lake System
W-44 Time-Varying Dissolved Oxygen
W-45 Dissolved Oxygen Model
W-46 Future Water Demands
W-47 Water Requirements Forecasting
W-48 Urban Water Demand
W-49 Urban Water Consumption
W-50 Municipal Water Requirements
W-51 Municipal Water Conservation
W-52 Water Resources Planning
W-53 Great Lakes
W-54 Technological Advance Impacts
W-55 Agricultural Demand
-------
TABLE X
WATER MODELS (Concluded)
OJ
1 DEMAND
MODEL
W-56 Outlook for Water
W-57 Water Resources Management
W-58 Water Resources Planning
W-59 Forecasting Water Demands
W-60 Water Resource Projects
W-61 California Water Requirements
W-62 U.S. Water Use
W-63 Water Base Recreation Demand
W-64 Water Oriented Recreation Demand
W-65 Social Benefit of Outdoor
Recreation
W-66 Response to Visual Recreation
Environment
W-67 Municipal Water Treatment System
W-68 Waste Treatment Expansion
W-69 Water Supply and Pollution Control
W-70 Dispersion and Waste Treatment
W-71 Treatment and Dilution
W-72 Water Quality Management -
Survey and Abstracts
W-73 Aquatic Pollution Bibliography
W-7A Testing of Water Pollution
Forecasting Models
W-75 Estuary Model Validity
W-76 PDI Index
W-77 National Planning Priority Index
W-78 Interindustry Water Analysis in
California
W-79 Industrial Water Use
W-80 Water Use in Manufacturing
////I/////
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GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
VA////
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RESULT
EFFECTS AND
REACTIONS
MISCELLANEOUS
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TABLE XI
SOLID WASTE MODELS
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DEMAND
GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
RESULT
EFFECTS AND I MISCELLANEOUS
REACTIONS | I"KK-E1-1-«I:UU!»
MODEL
S-2 Facility Planning
S-3 Facility Timing
S-4 Optimization of Facility
S-5 Solid Waste Collection
S-6 Refuse Collection
S-7 Math Analysis of Collection
S-8 Math Modeling of Collection
S-9 Municipal Refuse Collection
S-10 Satellite Vehicle Collection
S-ll Wichita Falls
S-12 Regional Industrial Waste
S-13 Cannery Waste
S-14 Sewer Surcharges
S-15 Regional Handling
S-16 Proceedings
S-17 Regional Solid Waste
S-18 Regional Projection
S-19 Solid Waste
S-20 Commercial Waste
S-21 Jobs and Land
S-22 Incineration Requirements
S-23 Waste Characteristics
S-2 A Domestic Refuse
S-25 Role of Packaging
S-26 Plastics
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TABLE XII
PESTICIDE MODELS
MODEL
P-l Pesticide Biodegradability
P-2 Controlling Contamination
CM
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TABLE XIII
RADIATION MODELS
DEMAND
GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
RESULT
, , , -.» .
EFFECTS AND
REACTIONS
MISCELLANEOUS
MODEL
R-l Radioactivity Transport
R-2 Decaying Effluent
R-3 Radioactive Ion Flow
R-4 Atmospheric Nuclear Detonations
R-5 Hydrologlc Transport
R-6 Systems Ecology
R-7 Radionuclide Cycling
R-8 Year 2000 Model
R-9 Oak Ridge Model
R-10 Meteorological Study
R-ll Data and Information
-------
TABLE XIV
NOISE MODELS
MODEL
N-l Noise Survey
N-2 Community Noise
N-3 Scales for Measuring Noise
N-4 Methods of Measurement
N-5 Urban Noise Model
N-6 Urban Noise Theory
N-7 Airport Noise Annoyance
N-8 Noise Forecast at Airport
N-9 Noise Forecast at Airport
N-10 Road Noise
N-ll Highway Design
N-12 Urban Traffic Noise
N-13 Freely Flowing Traffic
N-14 Connecticut Highways
N-15 Statistical Study
_*.
N-16 Traffic Noise
N-17 Prediction of Effects
N-18 Adjustment
N-19 Outside Noise
N-20 Estimate Plant Noises
-------
TABtE XV
GENERAL MODELS
""
DEMAND
GENERATION
OF RESOURCES
TRANSPORT
RESULT
EFFECTS AND
REACTIONS
MISCELLANEOUS
MODEL
Protection
G-2 Ecological Models
G-3 Coastal Zones
G-4 Economic-Ecological Analysis
G-5 Economic Analysis of Pollution
G-6 Environmental Planning
G-7 Urban Planning
G-8 Pollution Prices
G-9 Waste Generation
G-10 Terrestrial Ecosystem
G-ll Population Dynamics
G-12 Econometric Models
G-13 Iron Industry
G-14 Aluminum Industry
G-15 Copper Industry
G-16 Lead Industry
G-17 Zinc Industry
G-18 Fruit and Vegetable Industry
G-19 Leather Industry
G-20 Cement Industry
G-21 Paper Industry
G-22 Bakery Industry
G-23 Industrial Response
G-24 Resource Allocation
G-25 Residential Mobility
G-26 Environmental Data
G-27 Information and Planning System
C-28 Predator-Prey Model
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SECTION IV
SUGGESTED METHODOLOGY FOR COMBINING RESIDUALS
TO DETERMINE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
BASIC APPROACH
An identification of the most important residuals in the six cate-
gories of air, water, solid waste, pesticides, radiation and noise
together with the priority ranking of these residuals in terms of their,
economic, ecologic, health and other environmental impacts is necessary
to the successful implementation of SEAS. Such an analysis will allow
these residuals to be combined into overall indicators of environmental
impact.
A methodology is suggested that would first enable the relative
importance between residuals in a given category to be measured on
a common value scale, and second, to then enable these scales to be
normalized across all categories of residuals.
In an analysis of production processes for long-term energy
supply, MITRE has developed an index methodology for evaluating the
environmental impact of alternative fuel sources. Values of environ-
mental impact were calculated as explained below for air and water
residuals for each stage in the fuel cycle, i.e., extraction, trans-
portation, combustion, etc. The category values were aggregated using
weighting factors across processes and categories of residuals which
reflect the relative importance of each category to the overall environ-
ment. A normalizing weight was then applied to adjust the diverse
category values. The underlying concept in developing these normalizing
weights is that each category value should have the same overall effect
on the final index number if the relative importance of the categories
are equal.
43
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A similar methodology could be applied to future SEAS residual
impact analysis and could be expanded to include solid waste, pesti-
cides, radiation, land use, and noise (if possible). The goal of the
ranking procedure is to derive an environmental index across categories
of residuals
COMBINING RESIDUALS
The above mentioned air pollution index is based on the Federal
primary ambient air quality standards as well as derived standards
and pollutant emissions in terms of pounds per million BTU. The
following standard values were employed.
N02 100 jig/m3
3
SO- 80 (JLg/m f annual value
\ -V TSP 75
. A**-1" 3
o1^ CO 1000 ug/m annual extrapolation from
7 10,000 pg/m3/8 hr.
1 3
HC 160 ug/m 1 hr. standard used
as annual
3
Be 0.01 ug/m Pennsylvania 30 day
standard used as annual
3
Hg 0.3 ug/m USSR 24 hr. standard
used as annual
3
Pb 5.0 ug/m Pennsylvania 30 day stan-
dard used as annual
Above values were referenced to the NO- value. The resulting
weighting factors are:
Pollutant Factor
NO- 1 (reference)
TSP
co 122-
1000
HC 100
160
44
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Pollutant Factor
Be 100 1ft4
767 = 10
Hg = 333
20
3
Thus, the assumption is made that an increase of 1 |j.g/m of SO-
3 3
is as detrimental as 1.25 (J.g/m of N0» and an increase of 1 jig/m
3 ^
of CO is as undesirable as 0.1 |j.g/m of NO-, etc.
The "standards" for the trace metals and other pollutants included
in the final SEAS taxonomy for which EPA standards have not been set
must be derived from an analysis of available documentation and expert
opinion. Such factors as health effects (in terms of morbidity and
mortality), economic effects and ecologic effects can be used as a basis
to set these levels.
Once the relative weights have been established among pollutants,
individual pollutant amounts can be normalized to an equivalent amount
of a single air pollutant, in this case NO-. For example, suppose a
particular SEAS analysis indicated that the following quantities of
air pollutants were generated as emissions after control in a particular
region of the U.S.
Pollutant Tons
N02 5,000
S02 8,000
TSP 6,000
CO 19,000
HC 8,000
Be 10
Hg 60
Pb 1,000
45
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Converting these amounts to "equivalent" tons of air pollution
is accomplished as follows:
5000(1) + 8000(1.25) + 6000(1.33) + 19000(.l) + 8000(.63) +
10(104) + 60(333) + 1000(20) = 169,900 equivalent tons.
Note that the actual quantity of air pollutants was only 47,070
tons.
In a similar fashion, tons of water, radiation, pesticide and solid
waste pollutants can be equated to equivalent tons within each category.
Relative weights between categories can than be established through
expert opinion (possibly using a Delphi approach) and can be used to
combine the equivalent tonnages from each category into an overall
equivalent tonnage for the system under analysis.
Noise presents somewhat of a different problem since it is an energy
pollutant. One approach is to derive an equivalent amount of noise
energy across the categories of noise, say in terms of kilowatts
generated or perceived. A relative weight can be established for
noise to combine the equivalent noise power with the equivalent tonnages.
Differential weights can be used for different regions or for different
processes. A different weight may be required for pollutant tonnages
or power generated in mineral extraction in remote areas than the weight
used in pollutant generation in congested urban areas.
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
In suggesting the above methodology, MITRE realizes that it is
but one possible approach. Other more sophisticated approaches have
been considered but it was felt that the data required to support them
may not be available for many years.
One such approach would combine factors in the four broad areas
of health effects, economic damages, ecological impacts and social
(aesthetic) reactions. For example, the health effects of a given
46
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pollutant could be assessed based on such factors as the degree to
which the pollutant was a teratogen, mutogen, carcenogen, hepatotoxin,
irritant, led to chronic morbidity, etc. For the specific pollutant,
the possible effect of the pollutant with respect to each of these
categories would be scored on a high, medium, and low basis and
appropriate weights derived for each health factor level. Weights
relating factors by media in which the pollutant occurred would also
be derived and a combined health effects score established. This
score would be combined with similar scores for the economic, ecologic
and social categories and a total weighted score would be used instead
of the standard referred to in the suggested methodology.
The above suggested methodology does not consider synergisms among
pollutants such as that which occurs between SO-, partlculates and
humidity. Such interactions can be taken into account by defining
combined standards such as an SO.-particulate ambient air quality standard.
It is assumed in the suggested methodology that the direct economic
impacts of pollution control costs or taxes will be separately considered
in the oEAS approach, most likely in the process/resource interaction
portion of the system. The specific degree of control of residual
production and emission is not a portion of the suggested methodology
and must be taken into account prior to the residual output portion
of SEAS.
The reader should appreciate that the effort described in this
study together with the suggested methodology are only the first
steps in the structuring of ESD's Strategic Environmental Assessment
System. The scope of this initial effort has identified important
residuals together with their principal sources of entry into the
environment. Subsequent efforts must develop environmental indices
based on quantitative weightings and related to specific deleterious
effects upon man and his environment. These indices will be the basis
of comparison of alternative futures and EPA control and regulatory
actions.
47
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APPENDIX A
PRELIMINARY DRAFT TAXONOMIES OF RESIDUALS
This appendix contains the preliminary draft taxonomies of envi-
ronmental residuals utilized as a starting point in the interview
procedure outlined in Section I of this paper. These taxonomies appear
in Tables A-I through A-VI.
-------
PARTICULATES
TABLE A-I
TAXONOMY OF AIR RESIDUALS
Algae
Antimony
Arsenic
Asbestos
Bacteria
Barium
Benzene-soluble organics
Beryllium
Bismuth
Boron
Cadmium
Chromium
Cobalt
Copper
Fluorides
Fungi
Iron
Lead
Manganese
Mercury
Molds
Molybdenum
Nickel
Nitrates
Phosphorus
Pollen
Rusts
Selenium
Smuts
Spores
Sulfates
50
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PARTICULATES (Continued)
GASES
TABLE A-I (Concluded)
Tin
Titanium
Vanadium
Viruses
Yeast
Zinc
Acetaldehyde
Ammonia
Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Chlorine
Fluorine
Fo rmal d ehy de
Hydrocarbons
Hydrogen Fluoride
Hydrogen Sulfide
Ketones
Nitric Oxide
Nitrogen Dioxide
Nitrous Oxide
Odors
Ozone
Sulfur Dioxide
51
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TABLE A-II
TAXONOMY OF WATER RESIDUALS
Physical Acidity
Alkalinity
Color
Chemical Oxygen Demand
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
Dissolved Oxygen
Dissolved Solids
Floating Materials
Hardness
Odor
Passage Zones
Settleable Solids
Silt
Suspended Solids
Taste
Temperature
Turbidity
Inorganics Aluminum (mostly as Aluminum salts)
Ammonia (Ammonium ion)
Arsenic
Barium
Beryllium
Bicarbonates (generally not considered harmful)
Boron
Cadmium
Calcium
Carbonates
Chlorides
Chromium
52
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Inorganics
(Continued)
TABLE A-II (Continued)
Cobalt
Copper
Cyanides
Florides
Hydrogen Sulfide
Iron
Lead
Lithium
Magnesium
Mercury
Molybdenum
Nickel
Nitrates
Nitrites
Phosphates
Potassium
Selenium
Silica and Silicates
Silver
Sodium
Sulfur, Sulfates, Sulfites
Tin
Tungsten
Uranium
Vanadium
Zinc
Organics ABS (Alkyl Benzene Sulfonate)
Algae
Animal and Vegetable Oils
Bacteria - Total
53
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TABLE A-II (Concluded)
Organics Carbon Tetrachloride
(Continued)
Coliform Bacteria
Cresels
Fecal Coliform
Growth Stimulants
LAS (Linear Alkyl Sulfonate)
Methylene Blue Active Substances
NTA (Nitrilotriacetic Acid)
Nutrients
Oil and Petroleum
Organics - Dissolved
Parasites
Phenols
Sewage
Tar
Vitamins
Xylenols
54
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TABLE A-III
TAXONOMY OF SOLID WASTE RESIDUALS
Ash (slag)
Ceramics
Feed lot wastes
Food wastes (garbage)
Glass
Leather
Leaves and clippings
Metals
Ferrous
Non-ferrous
Paper
Plastics
Rubber
Petro-chemical
Sludge
Sand, stone and soil
Textile
Wood
Miscellaneous chemical
Organic
Inorganic
Mixed
55
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TABLE A-IV
TAXONOMY OF PESTICIDES
Insecticide Organochlorines
Aldrin
BHC
Bulan
Chlorobenzilate
Chlordane
DDT and isomers, metabolites
Dieldrin
Dilan
Dinocap
Endosulfan
Endrin
Genite 923
Heptachlor
Heptachlor epoxide
Isobenzan
Isodrin
Kepone
Lindane
Methoxychlor
Mirex
Ovex
Nonachlor
PCNB
Perthane
Prolan
Strobane
TDE and isomers, metabolites
Tetradifon
Toxaphene
Organophosphorus
Azinphosethyl
Azinphosmethyl
Bidrin
Carbophenothion
Chlorothion
Ciodrin
Co-Ral
Coumaphos
Crufornate
DEF
Demeton
56
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TABLE A-IV (Continued)
Insecticide Organophosphorus (Continued)
(Continued) Diazinon
Dicapthon
Dichlorros
Dimethoate
Dioaxthon
Disulfoton
EPN
Ethion
Fenthion
Fensulfothion
HEDT
Malathion
Merphos
Metasystox
Methyl Carbophenothion
Methyl Parathion
Methyl Trithion
Naled
NPD
Paraoxon
Parathion
Phorate
Phosdrin
Phosphamidon
Prolate
Ronnel
Ruelene
Schradan
Sulfotep
TEPP
Trichlorofon
Carbamates
Buxten
Carbaryl
Isolan
Zectran
Other Synthetic Organics
Cresol
PCB
Petroleum
Xylene
57
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TABLE A-IV (Continued)
Insecticide Plant Derivatives
(Continued) Nicotine Sulfate
Pyrethrin
Rotenone
Inorganic
Calcium Arsenate
Lead Arsenate
Herbicides Organic
Arsenicals
Arsan
Disodium Methyl Arsenate
Paris Green
Phenoxy Group
2, 4-D
2, 4, 5-T
MCPA
Silvex
Phenyl Urea
CMU
Diuron
Fenuron
Linuron
Amides
Diphenamide
NPA
Propachlor
Propanil
Carbamates
CDAA
CDEC
CIPC
IPC
Dinitro Group
Binapacryl
DNBP
DNCHP
DNOC
Dinitrocarbazol
Triazines
Atrazine
Dyrene
Prometryne
Propazine
Simazine
58
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Herbicides
(Continued)
TABLE A-IV (Continued)
Organic (Continued)
Benzoic Group
Amiben
Bensulfids
Dicamba
TEA
Other Organic
Amitrol
Barban
Dalapon
DCPA
Diesel Oil
Erbon
Fenac
Kerosene
Nitralin
Picloram
Trifluralin
Inorganic
Arsenic Acid
Arsenic Trioxide
Magnesium Chlorate
Sodium Arsenite
Sodium Chlorate
Fungicides
Dithiocarbamates
Ferbam
Maneb
Nab am
Oxythioquinox
Zineb
Ziram
Pthalimides
Captan
Folpet
Others
Sodium Ortho-phenylphenate
Copper Carbonate
Dichlone
Diphenylamine
Diphenyl
Ethoxyquin
PCP
Organic Mercury Compounds
59
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Miticides
TABLE A-IV (Continued)
Aramite
Dicofel
Tetradifon
Rodentlcides
Coumachlor
Coumafuryl
Phosphorus
Findone
Sodium Fluoroacetate
Thallium Sulfate
Warfarin
Zinc Phosphide
Algicides
RADA
RADS
Nematoeides and
Fumigants
D-D Mixture
Nemagon
Sulfur Dioxide
Unclassified
Insecticides
Abate
Azodrin
Baygon
Bay t ex
Cryolite
Cyclethrin
Dibromochloropropane
Dimethrin
Dursban
EPH
Ehtyl Guthion
Metacide
P arad ichlorobenzene
Thanite
Herbicides, Fungicides, Miticides, Algicides,
Defoliants
Acrolein
Atnetryne
Bromacil
Copper Chloride
Copper Sulfate
60
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TABLE A-IV (Concluded)
Unclassified Herbicides, Fungicides, Miticides, Algicides,
(Continued) Defoliants (Continued)
Dead-X
Delrad
Dexon
Dichlobenll
Difolitan
Diquat
Du-ter
Endothal (copper)
Endothal (dimethylamine)
Folex
Hydram
Hydorthol 191
Lanstan
LFN
Paraquat
PMA
Potassium Azide
Sesone
Sodium Azide
TCA
Thiram
Vernam
Others
Amazine
Ammonium Sulfamate
Delnab
DCNA
Fluometuron
Kuron
Methyl Bromide
Mitox
Ovotran
Vapam
61
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TABLE A-V
TAXONOMY OF RADIONUCLIDES
Tritium (H-3)
Sodium - 24
Argon - 41
Potassium - 40
Chromium - 51
Manganese - 54
Iron - 55
Cobalt - 57
Cobalt - 58
Cobalt - 60
Copper - 64
Zinc - 65
Krypton - 80
Krypton - 85m
Krypton - 87
Krypton - 88
Krypton - 89
Strontium - 89
Strontium - 90
Strontium - 91
Yttrium - 91
Yttrium - 93
Zirconium - 95
Zirconium - 97
Niobium - 95
Molybdenum - 99
Technetium - 99m
Ruthenium - 103
Ruthenium - 106
Rhodium - 105
62
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TABLE A-V (Continued)
Silver - 110m
Antimony - 125
Tellurium - 132
Iodine - 129
Iodine - 131
Iodine - 133
Iodine - 135
Xenon - 131m
Xenon - 133
Xenon - 133m
Xenon - 135
Xenon - 135m
Xenon - 138
Cesium - 134
Cesium - 136
Cesium - 137
Barium - 140
Lanthanum - 140
Cerium - 141
Cerium - 143
Cerium - 144
Neodymium - 147
Promethium - 147
Europium - 154
Europium - 155
Tantalum - 182
Lead - 212
Lead - 214
Bismuth - 214
Polonium - 214
Polonium - 216
63
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TABLE A-V (Concluded)
Polonium - 218
Radon - 220
Radon - 222
Radium - 226
Radium - 228
Uranium - 232
Uranium - 234
Uranium - 238
Neptunium - 239
Plutonium - 238
Plutonium - 239
Plutonium - 241
Americium - 241
Curium - 242
Curium - 244
Gross a
Gross
64
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Transportation
TABLE A-VI
TAXONOMY OF NOISE RESIDUALS
Rail
Train track noise
Breaking
Squeak of wheels on curves
Whistles
Air brakes
Trucks
Exhaust noise
Engines
Transmission and differential noise
Chain drive noise
Chassis noise
Brakes
Air compressors
Sheet metal parts
Tire whine
Automobiles
High speed tire squeal
Tire tread noise
Rattles
Engine noise
Exhaust
Horns
"Cutouts"
Aircraft
Piston engines
Jet aircraft noise
Helicopter blade noise
Recreation vehicles
Snow mobiles
Trail bikes
Power boats
Industrial Noise
Out-of-doors Processing
Air intake
Discharge ducts
Compressors
Engine intakes and exhausts
Pump and engine radiation
Steam discharge
65
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Industrial Noise
(Continued)
TABLE A-VI (Continued)
Enclosed Industrial Plant
All of above
With open windows
Fans and blowers
Punch presses
Machine tools
Forging equipment
Printing presses
Out-of-doors Operations
Warehousing of steel and lumber
Scrap yards
Truck and rail freight handling
Transportation and loading
Freight cars
Local yard movements
Plant auto traffic
Shift employees
Leaving and arriving at early or late hours
Agricultural Equipment
Combines
Tractors
Construction Noise
Diesel engines
Generators
Compressors
Trucks
Shovels
Bulldozers
Frontloaders
Scrapers
Power shovels
Rock drills
Electric Motors
Whining and groaning sounds
Air Compressors
Intake and discharge
Blasting
Pile driving
Engine
Hammer driven caissons
66
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Construction Noise
(Continued)
TABLE A-VI (Continued)
Riveting
Hammer
Electric or pneumatic nut-setter
Materials handling equipment
Demolition
Scrap material handling
Elevators
Cement mixers
Special equipment
Generators
Rock drills
Interior finishing
Residential construction
Hammers
Power saws
Electric drills
Heating, Venti-
lating and Air-
Conditioning
Air Conditioning
Cooling tower
Fans
Water spray
Window units
Compressor
Fan
Rattles
Intakes and discharges
Draft fans
Oil burners
Combustion
Pumps
Attic ventilating fans
Non-Environmental
Interaction Noise
Leisure activities
Radios
Stereos
TV
Musical instruments
Workshop and home improvement tools
Outdoor activities
Power mowers
Hedge trimmers
Chain saws
Auto repairs
Engine run-up
67
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TABLE A-VI (Concluded)
Non-Environmental Talking
Interaction Noise On street
(Continued) Arguments
Parties
Vehicles
Ice cream trucks
Delivery trucks
Ambulances
Fire vehicles
Motorcycles
Refuse collection
Trash cans
Engine exhaust
Loaders and compactors
Meeting noises
Street meetings
Religious meetings
Concerts
Church bells
Children at play
School yard
Playground
Street
Yards
Dwelling
Animals
Barking dogs
Sound Trucks
Household Appliances
Dishwashers
Vacuum Cleaners
Blenders
Disposals
Inaudible Noise Infra-sonic
Ultra-sonic
68
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APPENDIX B
INTERVIEW REPORTS
This appendix contains detailed interview reports for each of
the persons contacted during the course of this effort. Reports are
grouped according to primary topic of discussion. Table B-I lists
the names and organizational affiliations of interviewees grouped by
principal subject matter.
It must be emphasized that in many cases detailed data regarding
toxicity, prevelance, persistence, and long term ecological effect,
are not available to the experts interviewed. Several indicated that
further, extensive research should be performed prior to selection
of the most important residuals. Therefore, these interviews and
the resulting taxonomies in Section II should be viewed as a first-cut
with the full intention of updating the specification of important
residuals as more and better data become available.
69
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TABLE B-l
LIST OF INTERVIEWEES
Air
Mr. George Morgan (Director)
Mr. Ed Schuck
Dr. Robert Papetti
Mr. John Dekany (Director)
Mr. Charles Gray
Mr. John O'Connor (Chief)
Dr. Wilson Riggan
Dr. Anthony Colucci
Dr. Victor Hasselblad
Water
Dr. Lawrence Plumlee
Dr. Hend Gorchev
Mr. William J. Lacy (Chief)
Mr. Ralph Palange (Director)
Mr. Kenneth E. Biglane (Chief)
Mr. Frank Bell
Mr. Roger Lee
Mr. Harold G. Keeler
Mr. George Rey
Dr. James Gallup
Dr. Gilbert Jackson
Office of Quality Assurance
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
Transport Processes Branch
Division of Processes and Effects
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
Emission Control Technology Division,
EPA
Cost Analysis Branch
Strategies and Air Standards Division
Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, EPA
Division of Health Effects Research
NERC/RTP, EPA
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
Processes and Effects Division
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
Applied Science and Technology Branch
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
Division of Municipal Waste Water
Programs
Office of Water Programs, EPA
Oil and Hazardous Materials Division
Office of Water Programs, EPA
Water Supply Division
Office of Water Programs, EPA
Applied Science and Technology
Branch
Technology Division,
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
70
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TABLE B-l (Continued)
LIST OF INTERVIEWEES
Solid Waste
Mr. David Graham (Chief)
Mr. Patrick Tobin
Mr. Valentine Grev
Mr. Ralph J. Black
Mr. John Lehman
Mr. Paul Sullivan (Director)
Mr. Roger De Cesare
Mr. Ken Ivey
Mr. Martin Stanczyk
Solid Waste Control Branch
Technology Division
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
Office of Solid Waste Management
Programs, EPA
Office of Solid Waste Management
Programs, EPA
Experimental Solid Waste Recycling
Facility
Bureau of Mines
U. S. Department of the Interior
Pesticides
Dr. John Buckley
Dr. Warren Shaw
Dr. Phil Kearney
Dr. Allen Isensee
Dr. George Fries
Dr. Charles Helling
Dr. William Upholt
Radionuclides
Mr. Hal Peterson
Mr. Jack Nelson
Dr. Gordon Burley
Deputy Assistant to the Deputy
Assistant Administrator for Research
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
Agricultural Research Center
U. S. Department of Agriculture
Agricultural Research Center
U. S. Department of Agriculture
Chief Scientific Advisor
Office of Categorical Programs, EPA
Technology Assessment Division
Office of Radiation Programs, EPA
Field Operations Division
Office of Radiation Programs, EPA
Criteria and Standards Division
Office of Radiation Programs, EPA
71
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TABLE B-l (Concluded)
LIST OF INTERVIEWEES
Radionuclides (Continued)
Dr. Charles Pelletier
Mr. Leo Higginbotham
Noise
Dr. Alvin Meyer (Director)
General
Mr. Ellison Burton (Chief)
Mr. Floyd Childress
Dr. Ronald Venezia (Chief)
Mr. John Robson
Mr. David Sanchez
Mr. James Hibbs
Environmental Inspection Branch
U. S. Atomic Energy Commission
Office of Noise Abatement and
Control, EPA
Standards and Regulations Division
Office of Planning and Evaluation, EPA
Marine Ecological System Assessment
Program
Office of Marine Resources, NOAA
Land Use Planning Branch
Office of Air Quality Planning
And Standards, EPA
Assistant to the Chief
Implementation Research Division
Office of Research and Monitoring, EPA
72
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. GEORGE MORGAN, EPA - DECEMBER 21, 1972
MITRE representatives Dr. C. A. Bisselle and Mr. John Nicholls
met with Mr. George Morgan, Director of Quality Assurance, Office of
Research and Monitoring, EPA, on Thursday, 21 December 1972. The
purpose of the meeting was to discuss the taxonomy of air pollution
residuals in connection with the Strategic Environmental Assessment
System (SEAS) proposed by the Environmental Studies Division of EPA.
As a basis for the discussion, MITRE has prepared a preliminary
list of air pollution residuals, divided into particulates and gases.
Referring to the Clean Air Act, Mr. Morgan affirmed that 1) Health
and 2) Welfare were the primary considerations in any classification
of air pollutants, and that the criteria for determining these effects
were:
1) Prevalence
2) Population Affected
3) Toxicity
4) Measurability
5) Controlability
He recommended, therefore, that MITRE's list of residuals be re-
defined according to these criteria. In so doing a category of
"respirable particulates11 was introduced and placed at the top of the
list of the fifteen most significant air pollution residuals. Being
of a size less than eight microns, this category includes many, of the
individual residuals listed in Attachment 1. There are a few exceptions
such as aeroallergins (pollen) and odors.
Mr. Morgan's re-defined list is:
1. Respirable particulates
2. Carbon monoxide
3. Sulfur dioxide (including sulfates)
4. Nitrogen dioxide
5. Ozone
6. Mercury
7. Asbestos
8. Lead
9. Cadmium
10. Fluorides
11. Arsenic
12. Selenium
13. Berillium
14. Zinc
15. Vanadium.
73
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It will be seen in this tabulation that particulates and gases are
not separated out. It will also be noticed that hydrocarbons, normally
considered a significant pollutant, are not included. This is because
there are no direct health effects; rather, the significance of hydro-
carbons is with regard to the formation of oxidants. At the same time,
fluorides, which cause much economic damage and therefore have an impact
on welfare, are listed as Number 10.
After the respirable particulates category, the significance of the
numbered sequence of residuals is not critical. That is, the effects
of nitrogen dioxide (Number 4) are not significantly more critical to
health and welfare than ozone (Number 5). At the same time, carbon
monoxide (Number 2) does have a greater significance than, say,
cadmium (Number 9).
Mr. Morgan also pointed out that the ambient air quality standards
are set for outdoor conditions. However, the majority of the population
spend a high proportion of their time in an indoors environment, either
in the home, office, factory, store or other enclosed area. There are
no ambient standards set for these conditions, except for some occu-
pational standards established by the Occupational Safety and Health
Administration. He recommended, therefore, that the SEAS includes
at least one set of parameters to model such an environment. By way of
example, Mr. Morgan gave the existence of a large office building with false
asbestos ceilings and a recirculating air system. The offices accoraodate
people, a high proportion of whom smoke. The levels of carbon monoxide
and asbestos in the air inside that building may be significantly higher
than those allowed by air quality standards.
By way of references to obtain more detailed information on specific
air pollutant residuals, Mr. Morgan offered the following:
Dr. Dale Jenkins (Smithsonian Institution) - effects on plants of
heavy metals
Bob Chaquon (Illinois State) - weather modification,
and SLAPS Study (EPA) condensation of Aiken
nuclei, and heat islands
Dr. Carl Shy (EPA) - models of health effects
Kay Jones - models for NATO
Jack Thompson (NERC) - research and development.
74
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. ED SCHUCK, EPA - DECEMBER 26, 1972
On Tuesday morning, December 26, 1972, Dr. Charles Bisselle of
The MITRE Corporation visited with Mr. Ed Schuck (telephone number
522-1653) and Dr. Robert Papetti (telephone number 522-0681) of the
Transport Processes Branch, Division of Processes and Effects, ORM
in EPA. We discussed the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) proposed by the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) in EPA.
The discussion was primarily concerned with the state-of-the-art
of modelling. Mr. Schuck pointed out that air pollution modelling is
further advanced than that for water pollution; however, even the
former is not too well understood. Currently there are dozens of
models for determining space and time dependent ambient air concentra-
tions of pollutants given the sources of emissions, dispersion character-
istics, and atmospheric reactions.
The best one can say for these models is that within about 50% of
the time the calculated value may differ from the measured value by
up to a factor of 2. Within 99% of the time the error will be off by
a factor of 10 or less. These are generalized evaluations of air pollu-
tion models; at present there is no accepted method for evaluating,
testing and comparing the various models. The Transport Processes
Branch is studying this problem but a good assessment scheme may take
several years to develop.
For a hypothetical simplified region the task would of course be
easier, but this could involve so much conjecture at this point in time
that one may as well use proportional modelling. Roughly this technique
says that if the emissions are, say, tripled, then the ambient concen-
trations will be tripled. The formula below reveals a more precise
definition of proportional modelling (to be used for a particular region
and pollutant):
S. - S C. - C
1 o _ 1 o
S C - b
o o
where S = Source term (e.g., tons/day)
C = Measured peak concentration (e.g., ppm)
b = Background concentration (e.g., ppm)
The subscripts 0 and 1 refer to a base time and some other time respec-
tively. The background, b, is assumed constant; the background concept,
however, is not well understood and there are several interpretations.
One interpretation, used in conjunction with the Air Quality Display
75
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Model*, involves plotting measured concentrations (ordinate) against
computed concentrations (abscissa). The y-axis intercept of the straight
line fit to these points is sometimes referred to as background.
Mr. Schuck also noted that one may wish to use emperical relation-
ships rather than complex models. He mentioned one relationship
involving hydrocarbon concentration (without methane) and oxidant
levels (as ozone) as shown in the figure below.
Ozone
Concentration
Hydrocarbon (HC) Concentration
At any HC level there will be several observed oxidant levels (depending
upon mixing height, sunlight, etc.) and the curve is defined by the
maximum limit of observed ozone levels.
With regard to studying health effects there are basically two
approaches successive doses to animals and epidemiological studies.
The former approach (Bob McGraw's field) involves subjecting lower
order animals (rats are widely used) to different doses, observing
the results, and attempting to extrapolate the information to human
beings. It is this last procedure which is somewhat tenuous. With
epidemiological studies, it is often difficult to draw valid conclusions
in view of the many possible correlations of different factors which
have to be examined, such as smokers vs. non-smokers, rural vs. urban
living, type of kitchen stove used, and type of occupation. EPA is
currently involved in the development of exposure forecasting models.
It was also mentioned that personnel at Oak Ridge National Laboratory
were studying models concerning the materials balance of certain
hazardous substances such as cadmium and mercury.
"Air Quality Implementation Planning Program," Volume I, Operators
Manual, TRW Systems Group, Washington Operations (November 1970).
76
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH MSSRS. JOHN DEKANY
AND CHARLES GRAY, EPA - JANUARY 5, 1973
On Friday afternoon, January 5, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Dr. Stephen Lubore and Mr. Martin Scholl, visited with Mr. John P.
DeKany (Director) and Mr. Charles Gray (telephone number (313)761-5230)
of the Emission Control Technology Division, EPA, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
We discussed the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS)
proposed by the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of EPA.
Mssrs. DeKany and Gray indicated that much is still unknown con-
cerning the detailed composition of mobile source emissions. In
addition, the hydrocarbons are numerous and their influence on health
and photochemical oxidant formations is not well defined. They pointed
out that hydrocarbons emanating from plasticizers used in automobile
interiors may be carcenogenic. Mr. DeKany suggested that hydrocarbon
emissions be classified into three broad categories (not necessarily
mutually exclusive):
Polycyclic Organic Matter (POM)
primarily Benzo-a-pyrene (BAP)
Reactive hydrocarbons
aldehydes
ketones
Carcenogenic agents
Another current area of concern are fine particulates resulting
from engine wear and the combustion process. These particles in the
range of 0.1 to 2 microns can be deleterious to human health. A sug-
gested breakdown of the particulates is:
Fine heavy metal particles
lead
chromium
nickel
iron
Fine carbonaceous particles
Mr. DeKany indicated that asbestos from brake lining wear does not
appear to be a problem since the heat generated in the braking process
changes their form. Rubber particles from tire wear may be a problem
but little is known of its effects or transport. Rubber tire disposal
is of course a problem.
Several mobile sources are still not regulated and generate air
and water pollutants. Many of these may be a future problem if regu-
lations and standards are not set. These include:
77
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Aircraft (emission standards are proposed)
Motor cycles
Industrial engines and agricultural applications
Heavy construction equipment (off-the-road vehicles)
Locomotives
Recreational vehicles (marine, snow mobiles, trail bikes, etc.)
Large marine applications (ships)
Small engines (lawn mowers, chain saws, etc.)
Mr. DeKany suggested that we contact John Moran at EPA/RTP con-
cerning studies and data on the effects upon human-health of additives
to gasoline and lubricating oils.
78
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. JOHN O'CONNOR, EPA - JANUARY 17, 1973
On Wednesday morning, January 17, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Stephen Lubore, accompanied by Mr. Sam Ratick
of the Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA, visited with
Mr. John O'Connor (telephone number 919 688-8146, extension 355) Chief,
Cost Analysis Branch, Strategies and Air Standards Division, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA in Durham, N.C. We discussed
the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by BSD.
Mr. O'Connor's branch is primarily concerned with the economic impact
of setting air emission standards. The analytic methodology to date
has been an industryby-industry analysis performed by contract through
the Industrial Gas Cleaning Institute (IGCI) in Stamford, Connecticut.
These studies present the basic cost data by control technique and
industry. Nine industry studies have recently been completed: Rendering,
Petroleum Refining, Asphalt Batching, Iron and Steel, Coal Cleaning,
Brick and Tile Kilns, Copper Smelting, Kraft Paper, and Ferroalloys.
These studies are contained in "Air Pollution Control Technology and
costs in Nine Selected Areas", IGCI, PB-198,137. Several previous
studies contain similar data and analysis for a number of other indus-
tries. These data are referred to in the EPA Economics of Clean Air
series of documents.
Mr. O'Connor reviewed the taxonomy of air residuals prepared by
MITRE and selected the following residuals as those which he considers
the most important.
o Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
o Sulfur Dioxide (S02>
o Carbon Monoxide (CO)
o Hydrocarbons (HC)
o Fluorine and Fluorides
o Asbestos
o Beryllium
o Mercury
o Odors
The last five items were placed on the list since standards are in the
process of being formulated. Mr. O'Connor suggested that we might wish
to contact the Pollutant Strategies Branch for further information on
what pollutants are most important.
With regard to models, Mr. O'Connor mentioned the Consad Regional
Econometric Model which investigated the relationship between air pollu-
tants and industries in 90 Air Quality Control Regions. He also referred
us to Dr. James Hibbs of OR&M for information on the EQUIPS/MABET model
79
-------
which uses a Leontief type input-output analysis approach to pollution
and its industrial sources. Some modeling of this type is also being
performed by Leontief and his people at Harvard University. We were
referred to the EPA National Emissions Data System (NEDS) data base
for industry emissions data. This data base is not as yet operational
but much data is currently available for air emissions.
80
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH DRS. WILSON RIGGAN,
ANTHONY COLUCCI AND VICTOR HASSELBLAD, EPA - JANUARY 17, 1973
On Wednesday afternoon, January 17, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Dr. Stephen Lubore and Mr. Martin Scholl, accompanied by Mr. Sam Ratick
of the Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA, visited with
Drs. Wilson Riggan, Anthony Colucci and Victor Hasselblad (telephone
number 919 549-8411) of the Division of Health Effects Research,
NERC/RTP, EPA in Research Triangle Park, N.C. The purpose of the
visit was to discuss the effects upon human health of atmospheric
pollutants and how these effects could be included in the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by BSD.
Dr. Riggan indicated that much is still to be learned regarding
the effects of most atmospheric pollutants upon human health and
well-being. In particular, only first-cut best estimates are available
for the dose-response functions of atmospheric pollutants. A monograph
will be published shortly which has some dose-response effects of
SO2 in the presence of particulate matter and suspended sulfates. In
this work, suspended sulfates are related to irritation symptoms and
physiological effects. According to Dr. Hasselblad, these effects
(based on studies in Utah) appear to have statistical validity (i.e.,
levels of S02 and sulfates seem correlated with chronic disease) but
the data does not really show a statistically significant difference
between S0£ and suspended sulfates. Dr. Hasselblad feels that the
results of the previous studies of the health effects of N0£ based on
data collected in Chattanooga near a TNT plant may be real but statis-
tical significance is marginal. A recent study by Dr. Douglas Hammer
appears to correlate upper respiratory effects with NOx and eye irri-
tation with ozone. The ozone "hockey-stick" function appears to break
at a level of .12-.15ppm (current primary standard is set at a maximum
one hour concentration at .OSppm).
Dr. Riggan suggested that the following individuals be contacted
for further dose-response effects:
Dr. John Knelson - effects of low levels of CO on heart function
(relationship to angina pectoris)
Dr. Piscator - effects of cadmium on humans
Dr. Douglas Hammer - overall health effects of trace metals
John Conner - effects of radiation and toxic substances using
animal models to extrapolate to man.
81
-------
Dr. Colucci next proceeded to describe his research in multi-media
insult of pollution to humans and what factors effect the dose-response,
i.e., synergisms among pollutants. Dr. Colucci indicated that most
published results have probably been fortuitous and not true indicators
of frank morbidity or mortality. A national tissue bank is being
established to determine how body and tissue burdens of trace metals
and synthetic organlcs fluctuate due to introduction of these substances
into the body through air, water and food.
Dr. Colucci suggested the following taxonomy with some examples
to relate pollutant effects upon the human organism.
o Teratogens (Dioxin)
o Mutagens (POM)
o Carcinogens
o Hepatotoxins (Cadmium, Dioxin)
o Renotoxins
o Pulmonary Toxins
o Hematopoietic Agents (Lead)
o Behavior Response Modifiers
o Physycomotor Response Modifiers (Mercury)
o Non-specific Agents (Arsenic, Antimony, Selenium)
Dr. Colucci suggested the following list of pollutants as most
harmful to man.
o Lead
o Cadmium
o Mercury
o Arsenic
o Antimony (will be used in catalytic converters on autos)
o Dioxin (single most important organic, levels of fig/kg are
highly toxic)
Other pollutants which may be harmful in normal environmental
concentrations are beryllium, nickel, and selenium. Manganese may
become a problem as it replaces lead in gasoline as an additive. POM
may be a problem but there are too many compounds to investigate or
monitor. Benzo-a-pyrene and 3MC can be used as surrogates for all POM.
Dr. Colucci did not feel that nitrates, barium, iron, zinc, cobalt,
copper, PCB's or phtalate esters present a hazard to man although
they may affect aquatic biota and wildlife.
82
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
DRS. LAWRENCE PLUMLEE AND HEND GORCHEV, EPA - DECEMBER 15, 1972
On Friday afternoon, December 15, 1972, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, accompanied by Mr. John
Gerber of the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of EPA, visited
with Dr. Lawrence Plumlee (telephone number 755-0103) of the Office of
Research and Monitoring and Dr. Hend Gorchev of the Processes and Effects
Division, ORM. The discussion regarded the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by ESD.
Drs. Plumlee and Gorchev reviewed our list of water residuals and
with a consideration of human health effects narrowed the list to the
following residuals:
Dissolved Oxygen Cyanides
pH Lead
Arsenic Mercury
Boron Nitrates
Cadmium Organic Chemicals (CCE)
Chromium Pathogenic Micro-organisms
Dr. Gorchev suggested that a more expanded list would cover those
constituents or characteristics as identified by the "Surface Water
Criteria for Public Water Supplies (1962)," reproduced below:
Physical
* Color Temperature
* Odor * Turbidity
Microbiological
* Coliform Organisms Fecal Coliform
Inorganic Chemicals
Alkalinity * Iron (filterable)
Ammonia * Lead
* Arsenic * Manganese (filterable)
* Barium * Nitrates plus Nitrites
Boron pH (range)
* Cadmium Phosphorus
* Chloride * Selenium
* Chromium (hexavalent) * Silver
* Copper * Sulfate
Dissolved Oxygen Total Dissolved Solids
* Fluoride Uranyl Ion
Hardness * Zinc
83
-------
Organic Chemicals
* Carbon Chloroform Extract (CCE)
* Cyanide
* Methylene Blue Active Substances
Oil and Grease
Pesticides
* Aldrin * Heptachlor
* Chlordane * Heptachlor Epoxide
* DDT * Lindane
* Dieldrin * Methoxychlor
* Endrin * Toxaphene
* Organic Phosphates plus Carbamates
Herbicides
* 2, 4-D * 2, 4, 5-T * 2, 4, 5-TP (Silvex)
Phenols
Radioactivity
* Gross p Ra-226 Sr-90
The starred items also appear on the 1972 revised list of EPA
Drinking Water Standards. In addition, this latter listing includes:
General Bacterial Population
Mercury
Sodium
Gross or radioactivity
Organics - Carbon Absorbable (0-CA)
This last term, 0-CA, includes Carbon Chloroform Extract (CCE) as well
as Carbon Alcohol Extract (CAE).
With regard to some important pollutants Drs. Plumlee and Gorchev
had the following remarks:
Color, odor, turbidity have an ecological impact and are
important aesthetic considerations but do not present serious
health problems per se.
Temperature is not a problem of human health but has serious
implications with regard to aquatic life, especially so during
periods of shutdown. As a river heats up near an operating
power plant, indigenous fish may be able to adapt and/or "foreign"
species may appear. However, if during the winter the fish have
grown accustomed to warm water and the reactor is shutdown for
several weeks, the fish may be seriously affected.
Zinc more of a problem for aquatic life than for human beings.
84
-------
Lead a major source is storm sewers. Rainwater washes
gasoline residues (with additives) into the rivers.
Mercury major source is evaporation of elemental mercury from
soil after plowing. Many mercury compounds in pesticides and
paints (containing fungicides) have been discontinued.
Silver major source is cloud seeding. Currently the Bureau
of Reclamation (primarily western states) has a large program
involving silver iodide seeding. Silver is not particularly
toxic but can cause skin discolorations.
Sodium although not particularly toxic, sodium can have other
health effects and may be a cause of hypertension. Major source
is the salting of streets to melt snow.
Pesticides the ones on the PHS list are of generally longer
persistence.
Coliform ~ not generally patheogenic, total bacteria count is a
better indicator.
Dr. Plumlee also mentioned some future; problem areas:
Viruses almost impossible to monitor at present; EPA is
developing a program to rectify the problem.
Industrial effluents some of the organic compounds are
extremely difficult to monitor.
Lead arsenate principle insecticide for fruit crops since
the banning of DDT.
Selenium
Nitrosamines
Concern was also expressed about the indoor environment. Dr. Plumlee
pointed out that oftentimes the N0£ levels from gas stoves in a kitchen
exceed the outdoor ambient air quality standards. Another problem is
asbestos inhalation. Many offices have asbestos false ceilings and the
airspace above is used in the circulation system. Particles of asbestos
(in the form of fibers) can then be transported to the office environment.
Apparently the biological half-life of asbestos in man is very long,
as opposed to, say, lead which can be metabolized and/or excreted.
Dr. Plumlee mentioned several other experts whom we might be
interested in talking to:
Dr. Anne Yobbs (404 633-5261) pesticides in air
85
-------
Mr. George Morgan OBM/EPA
Mr. Roger Shull EPA, Xerox Building
Dr. Alphonse Forziati sources of phosphates, detergents
Dr. Robert Horton (919 549-8411), extension 2525) Selenium
Paul Tomkins Uranyl ion, ORM, Research Triangle
Leland McCabe (513 684-8301) Human health aspects
Dr. Robert Tardiff (513 684-8319) Cincinnati Toxicology Program
Dr. William Upholt ORM/EPA, pesticides
Arnold Joseph EPA, Xerox Building, transport processes
Allen Carlin EPA, Waterside Mall, Risk/Benefit analyses.
86
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. WILLIAM J. LACY, DECEMBER 20, 1972
On the afternoon of December 20, 1972, Dr. Stephen Lubore,
Mr. Marty Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, of the MITRE Corporation,
visited with Mr. William J. Lacy (Telephone Number 522-0363), Director
of the Applied Science and Technology Branch of EPA's Office of
Research and Monitoring. The purpose of this meeting was to discuss
MITRE'S draft taxonomy of water residuals developed in conjunction
with our effort on the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) proposed by the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of EPA.
Mr. Lacy was able to reduce the list of water residuals in the
draft taxonomy to the five that he considered most important. This
was done through a process of aggregation as opposed to elimination.
The resulting list is as follows:
Total Dissolved Solids Difficult to control in a
closed-loop industrial process
Biological Oxygen Demand & Long term environmental impact
Chemical Oxygen Demand through alterations of balance
of aquatic life
Total Suspended Solids
Nutrients Nitrates and phosphates
Toxic Substances For example: chlorinated
hydrocarbons, heavy metals
and pesticides
Regarding major physical sources of these residuals, Mr. Lacy
referred us to a series of state-of-the-art reports on waste treatment
processing for various industries. These reports are part of EPA's
Water Pollution Control Research Series. Mr. Lacy indicated that
these reports could be obtained from Mrs. Helen Stainback of the
Reports Division.
Mr. Lacy and his staff have also compiled a list of sources of
pollution ranked according to their relative national priorities.
This list is attached to these meeting notes. Factors used in
generating this list include: the volume of pollutants produced by
the industry, the availability of technology to control these pollu-
tants and a subjective assessment of the relative environmental
hazard attributable to the pollutants produced by the industry.
Specific details regarding the methodology used to produce this ranked
list were not available at the time of this interview. However,
Mr. Lacy referred us to Mr. George Ray and Mr. Harold G. Keeler,
both members of his staff, for further details of the analysis process.
87
-------
Concerning the availability of models which may be of use in
the SEAS effort Mr. Lacy suggested a review of the bibliography of
water quality research reports, also available from Mrs, Stainback.
In addition, he suggested that we speak with Dr. Allen Canlin
regarding his water basin modeling efforts.
88
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SOURCES OF POLLUTION RELATIVE NATIONAL PRIORITIES*
Mb. Source
1 Organic petrochemical industry
2' Municipal sewered waste
3 Ferrous metal products industry
4 Agriculture run-off
5 Storm & combined sewers
6 Pulp & Paper industry
7 Irrigation return flow
8 Petroleum refining industry
9 Agricultural chemicals
10 Feed lots
11 -Power production including (thermal)
12 Heavy metals
13 Oil pollution & production
14 Acid Mine drainage
15 Dredging
16 Non ferrous metals industry
17 Oil & hazardous materials spills
18 Textile industry
19 Strip mining (coal; sand & gravel)
20 Pharmaceutical manufacture
21 Sea Foods Processing.
22 Inorganic chemical industry
23 Fertilizer manufacture
24 . Construction activities .
25 Canning industry
26 Unscwered urban run-off
27 Meat packing
28 Impoundments
29 Phosphate mining
30 Logging
31 Milk and dairy products
32 Commercial vessels
Priority
1
2
3
4
5
6
6
7 <^
8
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
13
13
14
14
15
16
16
17
18
18
19
20
20
21
22
PPB Category
1202
1101
1201
1302
1102
AS . 1204
X ;*' 1303
V -o^ /IZOS
^ ^1304
^ 1203
1202
1402
1401
1507
1201
1508
1209
1404
1202
1206
1202
1202
1503
1206
1104
1206
1504
1404
1301
1206
1502
**
89
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No. Source Priority
33 Transportation Inuustry 22
34 Lumbering 23
35 Saltwater Intrusion 24
36 Nuclear installations 24
37 Natural pollution 25
38 Potato processing 26-
39 Tanning & leather Industry 27
40 Coal processing 28
41 Uranium mining 29
42 Water purification 30
43 Stone, glass and clay products 31
44 Brines 32
45 Copper mining 33
46 Log storage 34
47 Rubber industry 36
48 Brewery wastes 35
49 Recreation boats 37
50 Sugar beet industry 38
PPB Category
1207
1210
1505
1203
1506
1206
1212
1205
1403
1212
1208
1212
1404
1210
1211
1206
1501
1206
*reevaluated by W. tacy, Chief, Applied Science and Technology, EPA 1972, with
the aid of the Regional Research Representatives from the ten Regional Offices,
and key research staff members at the EPA Laboratories of Athens, Ada, Corvallis,
Grosse lie, and Cincinnati.
*PPB, Program, Planning and Budget Category of EPA
90
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. RALPH PALANGE, EPA - JANUARY 3, 1973
On Wednesday morning, January 3, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, visited with Mr. Ralph
C. Palange (Telephone Number 557-J777), Director, Division of Municipal
Waste Water Programs, EPA. We discussed the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by the Environmental Studies Division
(BSD) in EPA.
With regard to the development of a list of very important water
residuals, Mr. Palange pointed out that the selection of such substances
should conform to provisions in Section 306 of the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972. This section lists some 27
categories of sources for which effluent standards are to be established
within about a year. These different source types represent a variety
of pollutants and a list of toxic substances is currently being
developed by EPA and should be ready within a month. Attached is a first-
cut draft of candidates for a toxic substances list.
He referred us to several experts who might be able to assist in
paring down MITRE's taxonomy of water pollutants:
Charles Swanson; municipal wastes 557-8497
Allen Cywin; industrial wastes 557-1601
Dr. Don Mount; aquatic biologist Dwluth Lab
Ken Mackenthun; aquatic biologist 755-0640
Bill Rozenkrantz; municipal research 522-0249
Darwin Wright; municipal demonstration 522-0250
program
Lowell Keup; agricultural wastes 557-7743
Mr. Palange hoped that SEAS would be useful to people other than
top EPA decision makers. He stressed that the basic responsibility
(and actual work) for improving the environment rests with the states
and local governments. This being the case, the model should be kept
relatively straightforward and simple since many state and local
agencies do not have the manpower or expertise to perform sophisticated
analyses. He suggested that, if the model were to be tested first at
the regional level, EPA's region five probably has the best water program
in terms of completeness of good data. As far as states are concerned,
Michigan and California would be good candidates for evaluating SEAS.
Concerning future problem areas, he felt that these would be very
difficult to predict (if at all); the best one can do is point out
that there will be beneficial and/or adverse side effects associated
with technological advances and one should be prepared to assess these
as early as possible.
91
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CANDIDATES FOR TOXIC SUBSTANCES LIST
All entries are backed by a bioassay of 100 ppm or lass
and a TLm of 96 hours or less.
PART C(I)
DRAFT
I. Inorganic Compounds
A. Metals
Aluminum nitrate
Antimony trichloride
Beryllium chloride
Cadmium chloride
Copper arsenite
Cupric nitrate
Cupric sulfate
Chromic acid
Chroroium chloride
Ferric chloride
Ferric sulfate
Lead nitrate
Lead sulfate
Mercuric acetate
B. Non-metals
Ammonia
Ammonium hydroxide
Ammonium, carbonate
Ammonium sulfate
Arsenic
Arsenic trioxide
Barium cloride .
Bromine
Calcium- chloride
Calcium hyperchlorite
chloride
sulfat
e
Mercuric
Mercuric
Nickel chloride
Nickel sulfate
Phosphorus
Silver nitrate
Sodium arsenate
Sodium arsenite
Sodium fluoride
Sodium
Sodium
sulficla
selenite
Sodium cyanid
Zinc sulfate
Sodium sulfite
Chlorine
Hydrogen chloride
Hydrogen sulfide
Hydrogen sulfate
Hy d ro f lu o r i c a c ^ -'\
Potassium chromatc
Fotdasiuni cyanide
Potassium permanganate
Potassium xanthate
Tartaric acid
92
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DRAFT
-2- PART C(i)
II. Organic Compounds
Acetic acid
Acrolciii
Acrylonitrile
Aldrin
Allyl alcohol
/vtrazine
Carbon clisulfide
Carbon tetrachloride
Chi or of
Chi or onli
Cresol
Crcsylic acid
Carbaryl
Cygon
Dinitrophenol
DDT
2,4-D
2,4,5-T
Diuron (Karme>:)
Endosulfan (Thiodan)
Endrin
Epichlorhydrin
Formaldehyde
Ilcptachlor
Hydrazine
Guthion
Malathion
Parathion
Ethyl parathion
Lindane
Methyl nicrcaptan
Naphthalene
Phenol
Paraquat
Polychlorinated biphenyls
Simazine
Tannic acid
Tctraethyl lead
Toxaphcne
Xyleno
III. Other - Absolutely banned by law
Any radiolog^aical, chemical, or-biological warfare agent
Any high-level radioactive waste
93
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DRAFT
-3-
PART C(I)
From: Ellis, Bulletin of the Bureau of Fisheries/ 48.: 365-
437, 1937; "Detection arid Measurement of Stream
Pollution," in Xeup, Ingran, and Mackenthun,
"Biology of Vfater Pollution", U.S. Dept. of the Interior,
FtfPCA, 1967.
I. Fresh water only; all test animals are goldfish.
Substance Toxicity, Water Survival Tins
Condition
Chromic acid
Hydrochloric acid
Sulfuric acid
it
n
it
n
n
it
ii
Tannic acid
Tartaric acid
Cupric sulfats
Ferric chloride
Hydrogen sulfida
Sodium selenite
Aiarnoniura carbonate
Drcnino
Bromine
Chlorine
Chlorine
Chlorine
Cresylic acid
Cresylic acid
Phenol'
Potassiura xanthate
100
166
59
134
134
133
143
169
100
100
10
100
100
100
100
100
20
100
10
2
100
10
100
30
10
0,1
Very sott
?
Very soft
Soft
Soft
Soft
Hard
Hard
Hard
Very soft
?
Very soft
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
Hard
30 min.
6h hrs. (nax.j
1 hr. (max.)
6-96 hrs.
6-96 hrs.
5~6 lilTS o
2 hrs.
1 hr.
9-20 hrs,
3 hrs.
11-72 hrs.
1 hr.
3-£ hrs.
8-20 hrs.
4-in hrs,
a."^ J ill. o *
15-96 hrs.
1 hr.
5-43 hrs.
17-48 hrs.
5-31 hrs.
46-9G hrs.
60-72 hrs.
12-36 hrs.
48-96 hrs.
OC )-.*,-
94
-------
PART C(I)
DRAFT
II. Fresh water, varying test aniuals.
v£>
Ui
Substance
Toxicity, ppn
Acetic acid
hydroxide
Aiomoniuin sulfate
Bromine
Chloraioine
Chlorauine
Chlorine
Orthocresol
Cupric sulfate
Cupric' sulfate
Ferric chloride
Ferric sulfate
Lead nitrate
Lead sulfate .
Methyl niercaptan
Phenol
Phenol
Potassium cyanide
Potassium cyanide
Godium sulfite
Tannic acid
Zinc sulfate
100
20
6
7
66
1.0
0.4
0.4
1
55
1
2
9
0.7
10
25
70
0.4
0.3
0.5
100
100
100
Test animal
goldfish
carp
trout
sunfish
bluagills
goldfish
trout
trout fry
goldfish
sunfish
perch
goldfish
goldfish
carp
trout
goldfish
bass
sunfish
trout
trout
trout
goldfish
goldfish
goldfish
Comments
LD-50 (in 24-72 hrs.).
10 OS mort in 15 rain.
1002
100%
100%
1005
100%
100%
100%
100%
24 hrs.
1 hr.
3 hrs.
15- 9 G hrs.
43 hrs.
raort. ir.iri-.adiato.ly
mort in 96 hrs.
raort in 1 hr.
mort.
raort.
rr.ort.
raort.
iaort.
n
in
in
in
in
"Partial kill" in 1-30 hrs,
24-9 G hrs.
20 hrs,
12-24 hrs.
2
96 hrs.
less than
100% mort. in
1005 nort. in
100% mort, in
100% nort. in
100% iaort. in
100% mort. in
2 hrs.
100% mort. in 1 hr.
"Partial Kill1* in 0 hrs.
"Partial kill"- in 2 hrs.
"Partial kill" in 15 min.
100% nort. in 95 hrs.
10 3 3 nort. in 9-20 hrs.
100% mort. in 96 hrs.
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. KENNETH BIGLANE, EPA - JANUARY 3, 1973
On Wednesday afternoon, January 3, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle visited with Mr. Kenneth
E. Biglane (telephone number 557-7660), Chief of the Oil and Hazardous
Materials Division, Office of Water Programs, EPA. We discussed the
Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by the
Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of EPA.
Mr. Biglane identified three major categories of water pollution
sources: a) general population (human wastes), b) the manufacture
and production of goods, and c) transportation and storage accidents
(spills). It is this last category with which his division is primarily
involved. The control philosophy for spills is much different from that
of stationary source effluents. In the latter case, one would treat
the effluents or try to recycle the waste products; the major thrust
in the transportation accident program philosophy is prevention through
such factors as better design of containers, careful planning of routes,
and development of "fool-proof" handling and storage procedures.
Mr. Biglane pointed out that there are no real standards (such
as effluent standards for stationary sources) with which to assess
the relative severity of a spill of one type to that of another type.
Within the transportation industry one often sees statistics pertaining
to the relative safety (in terms of accidents or deaths per passenger
mile) of various modes of travel. A similar parameter for accidental
spills (in terms of pounds released per ton-miles transported) could
be very misleading since such a statistic says nothing about the effects
of a spill.
There are several criteria which would be useful for determining
the most deleterious spill substances. The most important overall
criterion would involve those substances which are not easily removable
from an ecosystem by natural means. Other factors are extreme toxicity,
high bioaccumulation, corrosivity, radioactivity, and teratogenicity.
Although he could not supply us with a detailed breakdown of the
types and amounts of accidental spills, Mr. Biglane did lend us a
set of summary spill reports published daily by his office. MITRE
personnel have reviewed these reports and an analysis of their findings
is attached to these notes.
With regard to the annual listing of fish kills and reported causes,
Mr. Biglane referred us to either Al Erikson or Lowell Keup of EPA.
96
-------
SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT SPILLS IN 1972J
SUBSTANCE
FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTS
Oil
Oil, Crude
Oil, #2
Oil, #5
Oil, #6
Gasoline & Kerosene
Diesel Fuel
Aviation Fuel
Asphalt
Naptha & Derivatives
Miscellaneous
Sub-Total (Fossil Fuels)
ACIDS
Hydrochloric
Chromic
Sulfuric
Nitric 4
Miscellaneous
Sub-Total (Acids)
PESTICIDES
MISCELLANEOUS5
TOTAL6
FOOTNOTES:
NUMBER
OF SPILLS
48
74
44
6
23
54
23
10
7
3
53
268
2
3
7
1
6
19
5
102
394
AMOUNT (GALLONS)'
8,705,778'
3,688,748
2,884,234
27,986
266,006
1,247,058
1,166,106
140,540
354,600
1,974,000
713,182
21,168,238
9,000
13,800
25,750
10,000
5,500,000
5,558,550
680
6,391,111
33,118,579
1. Data taken from "Spill Report Summaries" published daily by the
Division of Oil and Hazardous Materials, Office of Water Programs,
EPA. Includes spills on inland and coastal waters as well as on land.
2. Conversion factors used: 1 barrel =42 gallons; 1 drum = 55 gallons;
1 tank car = 30,000 gallons.
3. The number of significant digits are not meant to imply a high degree
of precision; in many cases small numbers (< 100) were simply added
to large estimates. Moreover, there were some spills for which no
amount was reported.
4. Includes three very large spills of acid water unspecified as to type.
5. Includes substances such as arsenic, caustic soda, cyanide, chlorine,
ethylene glycol, hydrogen sulfide, sodium hypochlorite, turpentine
and many others. One radioactive spill was reported but most spills
of this type are generally handled by the Atomic Energy Commission.
6. This total represents the so-called significant spills. The total
number of spills of all sizes and severity reported to the division
in 1972 was 3,407. Even this value may not reflect the total number
of spills. In 1971 the Coast Guard reported 8,496 spills of which
7,446 were related to fossil fuel products. (See 1972 Annual Report
of the Council on Environmental Quality).
97
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH MESSRS. FRANK BELL
AND ROGER LEE, EPA - JANUARY 3, 1973
On Wednesday afternoon, January 3, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, visited with Mr. Frank Bell
and Mr. Roger Lee (telephone number 557-7610), both of the Water Supply
Division in the Office of Water Programs of EPA. We discussed the
Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by the
Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA.
Messrs. Bell and Lee pointed out that their interest in water
quality was from the point of view of water supply which involves a
different approach from that of stream pollution. They suggested
that the three most important problem areas might be:
Viruses
Organics
Bacteria
They noted that viruses have been found in the effluents of sewage
treatment plants even though all of the bacteria have been removed.
The virus problem is particularly troublesome not only because of
their pathogenic nature but because adequate means for measuring their
presence are only now being developed.
There are three basic sources of organics natural processes
(e.g., lignins), industrial (e.g., pesticides), and sewage (e.g., human
wastes). Many of these are highly toxic, persistent, and difficult
to identify, particularly the large number of pesticides being produced
today. When monitoring for organics in water supplies, there are two
major problems: a) low yields and b) the inability to extract many
organics without changing their chemical nature. EPA labs are currently
studying solutions to both problems.
While most bacteria are considered beneficial there are some which
are inimical to man's health and welfare. Messrs. Bell and Lee were
particularly concerned with those which are enteric pathogens affecting
the intestinal tract. Since the search for a specific pathogen in water
may prove to be too expensive, slow, or unwieldy for routine control
purposes, water is often examined for the presence of fecal coliform.
Such coliform per se may not be necessarily harmful but its presence
is assumed to serve as an indicator of other potentially dangerous
organisms.
Other problem areas include high concentrations of nitrates. This
is generally a minor problem in most localities, but in some areas (with
high fertilizer runoff) there is a concern for the potential danger which
nitrates in water hold for infants, especially those between 6 and 8
months. The effect in question is commonly referred to as "blue babies".
98
-------
The presence of metallic ions (Na, Ca, Fe, Hg, Se, etc.) in water
supplies is largely due to inefficient treatment processes. While such
trace metals do not pose much of a threat at present, they could be a
considerable problem in the future if industrial wastes continue to
grow.
Water softness was also mentioned as a potential future problem
but this topic was not elaborated upon.
It was suggested that Leland McCabe of the Taft Engineering Center
in Cincinnati would be a good contact regarding epidemiological studies.
Another source of information would be the Morbidity and Mortality
Reports published by DREW in Atlanta, Georgia.
99
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH MR. HAROLD G. KEELER,
MR. GEORGE REY AND DR. JAMES GALLUP, EPA DECEMBER 29, 1972
In the morning of Friday, December 29, 1972, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles A. Bisselle visited the Applied Science
and Technology Branch, Technology Division, Office of Research and
Monitoring, EPA. We met with Mr. Harold G. Keeler (telephone number
522-0028), Mr. George Rey, and Dr. James Gallup to discuss the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by the Environmental
Studies Division (ESD) of EPA.
The Applied Science and Technology Branch is interested in water
pollution from the point of view of industrial effluents. Criteria for
the selection of most important residuals are based on the following
factors: a) load amount, b) economics of control (related to the state-
of-the-art and the complexity of the pollutants), and c) the toxicity
to humans and other biota. Most industrial pollutants can be categorized
according to the following classification scheme:
Industrial Pollutants
_L
Suspended
Solids
Dissolved
Organics
>0rganics
>Inorganics
Mixed
_L
Dissolved
Inorganics
BOD
Refractory
Toxic
Salts
Toxic Cations
Toxic Anions
Nutrients
The following table was generated by Dr. Gilbert Jackson and the
above mentioned gentlemen at our request. Within the above classification
scheme various pollutants were grossly ranked according to several
criteria.
100
-------
RANKING OF INDUSTRIAL WASTES
POLLUTANT
VOLUME
AMOUNT
TOXICITY
(BASED ON
CURRENT
STANDARDS)
ECONOMICS
OF CURRENT
CONTROL OR
REUSE
TECHNOLOGY
A=Small A=Large ppm A=Cheap
B=Moderate B=Moderate ppm B=Moderate
C=Large C=Few ppm
SUSPENDED SOLIDS
Organic C
Inorganic B
Mixed B
DISSOLVED ORGANICS
BOD Contributors
Amino Acids A
Solid Hydrocarbons C
Refractory B
Toxic
Viruses B(?)
Pathogenic Bacteria B
DISSOLVED INORGANICS
Salts
Brine (NaCl) B
Toxic Cations
Cyanides B
Chlorides C
Toxic Anions
Mercury B
Chromium B
Nutrients
Nitrates A
Phosphates B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
A
B
A
A
B
B
C=Costly
B
C
C
C
B
C
B
B
B
B
B
B
A
CONTROL
TECHNOLOGY
AVAILABILITY
A= Available
B=Promising
Developments
C=None Foreseen
A
B
B
A
B-C
B
B
B
A-B
B
B
B
B
A
101
U>'
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. DAVID GRAHAM, ORM/EPA - DECEMBER 19, 1972
On December 19, 1972, Dr. Anthony Bisselle and Mr. Marty Scholl of
the MITRE Corporation and Mr. Sam Ratick of the Environmental Studies
Division (BSD) of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), visited
with Mr. David Graham and Mr. Patrick Tobin of EPA's Office of Research
and Monitoring, Technology Division, Solid Waste Control Branch (Tele-
phone Number 755-2570). The purpose of this meeting was to discuss
MITRE's draft taxonomy of solid waste residuals in conjunction with
the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) currently under
development by ESD.
Mr. Graham's primary concerns deal with solid waste whose sources
are of a municipal nature. As such our discussion excluded consideration
of both agriculturally and industrially generated solid wastes.
Unlike the water and pesticide draft taxonomies which have large
numbers of specific chemical substances, the draft solid waste taxonomy
categorizes the many specific substances into 18 groups. Messers Graham
and Tobin's initial impression of this taxonomy was that it constituted
as reasonable a categorization of solid wastes as any other.
In selecting areas of research in solid waste handling and storage
(disposal) funded by his office, Mr. Graham indicated that there are
several priority problem areas which are considered. These include:
collection and transportation, disposal, resource recovery, and hazardous
wastes. Problem areas such as land use, aesthetics and safety in
handling were considered of secondary importance. The draft taxonomy
of solid waste residuals was reviewed in terms of the magnitude of
the problem in each primary area. The resulting list of "most important"
solid waste residuals selected using these criteria were:
Residual
Municipal sludge
(sewage & industrial)
Miscellaneous chemicals
(including pesticides)
Paper
Plastic
Reason for Selection
High cost of handling and disposal,
Social & political problem
Large quantity
Hazardous
High cost of disposal & potential
latent environmental effects
Resource recovery potential
Large volume
Major litter problems
Mostly non-biodegradable (This was
not considered a major feature by
Mr. Graham as once plastic is in
a landfill it is not clear that
being inert & non-biodegradable
are problems.)
102
-------
Residual Reason for Selection
Plastic (Continued) Hazardous and corrosive gases when
burned in conventional incinerators.
Metals Resource recovery
Some hazardous
Even though Mr. Graham's area doesn't deal directly with agricultural
wastes, he felt that the largest single contributor to solid waste is
in this area. Specifically, he felt that feed-lot wastes should be
near the top of our list of important solid waste residuals.
Mr. Graham also emphasized that the remaining items on the draft
taxonomy were "important" although those mentioned above were the top
five.
When asked if data currently exists characterizing the composition
and amount of municipal solid wastes according to the categories of the
draft taxonomy, Mr. Graham indicated that many such studies have been
done in various cities. However, the resulting data do not correlate
well from city to city due to the distribution of light industry within
the area of analysis and to the different means of disposal available
to the residence (e.g., use of garbage disposals) or the time of year
at which the sample was taken.
Regarding residuals which may become major future problems Mr. Graham
specified essentially non-biodegradable containers which may hold
hazardous materials (e.g., pathogenic bacteria in plastic-lined diapers and
mercury in batteries) and disposal of toxic chemicals (nerve gas, etc.).
New technology is currently under development to improve solid waste
separation and thus improve the economics of recycling. The Bureau of
Mines Facility at College Park, Maryland was mentioned as a good example
of such processing (reference Chuck Kenahan, U.S. Bureau of Mines,
Telephone Number 343-4743).
In regard to the existence of models of solid waste generation,
transport, processing and disposal, Mr. Graham indicated that many such
models have been developed. The majority of these deal with optimizing
of trash pick-up routing, however, other aspects of the solid waste
area have also been modeled. Mr. Graham suggested that we review
"Solid Waste Management: A List of Available Literature",
Report SU-58-15, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, July, 1972,
to determine the applicability to the SEAS effort of other existing
models.
103
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH VALENTINE GREY
AND RALPH J. BLACK - JANUARY 4, 1973
On the morning of January 4, 1973 three representatives of The
MITRE Corporation, Dr. Charles Bisselle, Mr. Martin Scholl and
Dr. Stephen Lubore visited with Mr. Valentine Grey (telephone num-
ber 254-7820) and Mr. Ralph Black (telephone number 254-7444) of
EPA's Office of Solid Waste Management Programs. The purpose of
this visit was to identify solid waste residuals which should be
incorporated into the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
currently under development by EPA's Environmental Studies Division.
After briefly reviewing the draft taxonomy of solid waste resi-
duals, Mr. Grey suggested that the best approach for identification
of important residuals would be to interview industry to determine
the long-range character of consumer products. It was agreed, however,
that such a task would be far beyond the resources of this effort.
In order to help narrow the draft list, Mr. Grey did indicate
that the Office of Solid Waste Management's primary concern was in
the area of hazardous materials, and he referred us to Mr. John P.
Lehman (telephone number 254-7811) who has been involved in the
identification of these materials.
Mr. Grey also indicated that what will appear in solid waste
in the future depends to a large extent on pollution control technology
in both this and other categorical areas. Two rather germaine points
were made. First, according to Mr. Grey, recycling of solid wastes
has been an economic failure. Although this may not be totally true
across the board, this statement does seem to be the case for items
such as packaging materials (e.g., glass bottles, metal cans) for
which the cost of collection and separation seems to offset the value
of the reclaimed material. Secondly, new technology for pollution
control in air and water generate large quantities of solid wastes
as end products. Typical p-vAinp1p.fi are flyash from incinerators and
filter sludges from water effluents. These factors serve to point
out the need for cross-media analysis for prediction of future pollution,
Mining wastes from oil shale operations was mentioned as another
possible future solid waste problem.
In attempting to close in on particularly important residuals
Mr. Black identified two major categories of solid wastes those
which exist in nature and for which natural environmental disposal
processes (biodegradation, oxidation, photodecomposition) exist;
and those which are manmade and for which nature has no disposal
or reduction mechanisms. Man-made organics comprise the major part
of this latter category, including many pesticides and other toxic
substances, plastics, explosives, etc. It is this category of non-
natural substances which Mr. Black considered the most important
104
-------
from an environmental point of view. Conversely, he felt that such
solid wastes as garbage, food processing wastes and feedlot wastes,
although large in volume and perhaps a problem in an economic or
political sense, are not really environmental problems.
Along this line of reasoning Mr. Black rank-ordered our list of
solid waste residuals in the following manner:
1. Organic Chemicals
2. Mixed Chemicals
3. Petro-chemicals
4. Industrial Sludge
5. Municipal Sludge
6. Slae and Ash
Group A - most important
in an environ-
mental sense
7. Rubber
8. Plastic
9. Bulky Wastes (autos,
refrigerators, etc.)
10 Construction and Demolition Wastes
Group B - problems in
an economic
or control sense
11. Other Municipal Wastes
Both Messrs. Black and Grey agreed that there is a real lack
of good baseline data from which forecasts of future solid waste
could be made. Regarding the existence of currently available fore-
casting methodologies, they referred us to two studies:
"A Systems Study of Solid Waste Management in the Fresno Area",
EPA Report SW-5d, 1969.
"Comprehensive Studies of Solid Waste Management", EPA Report
SW-3rg, 1970.
They also suggested that we contact Albert Klee at EPA's
Cincinnati NERC regarding his modeling experience.
105
-------
NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. JOHN LEHMAN, EPA - JANUARY 5, 1973
On Friday morning, January 5, 1973, Dr. Stephen Lubore and
Mr. Martin Scholl of The MITRE Corporation visited with Mr. John Lehman
(telephone number 254-7811) of the Office of Solid Waste Management
in EPA. We discussed the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) proposed by the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) in EPA.
Mr. Lehman indicated that he is currently heading an EPA task
force which is studying hazardous and toxic solid wastes. This study
is called for by Section 212 of the Resource Recovery Act. Mr. Lehman
stated that these wastes are the number one priority class of solid
waste. He indicated that there are various lists of hazardous pollu-
tants within EPA and other Federal agencies such as DOT, HEW, Labor,
FDA, etc.
EPA has contracted Battelle (Pacific Northwest) to develop lists
of hazardous and toxic pollutants found in solid waste streams. These
substances have been placed in three broad categories. The Category
One pollutants are deemed to be the most harmful and are listed in
the attachment.*
Mr. Lehman suggested the following five aggregated categories of
hazardous solid wastes:
Toxic
Biological/pathogenic
Radioactive
Flamable
Explosive
In making the above categorization, Mr. Lehman pointed out that
the categories are not mutually exclusive since a substance such as
TNT is both toxic and an explosive. It was also pointed out that
many of these "solid wastes" are in reality in liquid or gaseous form
within a solid container when they were disposed.
Mr. Lehman indicated that he did not know of any existing models
for forecasting or prediction purposes in the areas of interest to
ESD. Some data is available on hazardous solid wastes from the OR & M
lab in Cincinnati. Mr. Lehman indicated that he saw the utility of
a system such as SEAS and could envision using such a capability in
his activities.
These lists are considered to be sensitive material within EPA at
this time and should not be disseminated any further.
106
-------
HAZARDOUS WASTES PROPOSED FOR
NATIONAL DISPOSAL SITES
METALS & METAL COMPOUNDS
AMI-IONIUM CHROMATE
AMMONIUM DICHROMATE
ANTIMONY PENTAFLUORIDE
ANTIMONY TRIFLUCRIDE
ARSENIC TRICHLORIDE
ARSENIC TRIOXIDE
CADMIUM (ALLOYS)
CADMIUM CHLORIDE
CADMIUM CYANIDE
CADMIUM NITRATE
CADMIUM OXIDE
CADMIUM PHOSPHATE
CADMIUM POTASSIUM
CYANIDE
CADMIUM POWDERED-
CADMIUM SULFATE
CALCIUM ARSENATE
CALCIUM ARSENITE
CALCIUM CYANIDES
CHROMIC ACID
COPPER ARSENATE
COPPER CYANIDES
CUPROUS CYANIDE
CYANIDE (ION)
ISOTOPES 24
LEAD ARSENATE
METALS & METAL COMPOUNDS
LEAD ARSENITE
LEAD CYANIDE
MANGANESE ARSENATE
MERCURIC CHLORIDE
MERCURIC CYANIDE
MERCURIC DIAMMONIUM
CHLORIDE
MERCURIC NITRATE
MERCURIC SULFATE
MERCURY
NICKEL CARBONYL
NICKEL CYANIDE
ORGANIC MERCURY
PHOSGENE
POTASSIUM ARSENITE
POTASSIUM CHROMATE
POTASSIUM CYANIDE
POTASSIUM DICHROMATE
SILVER CYANIDE
SODIUM ARSENATE
SODIUM ARSENITE
SODIUM BICHROMATE
SODIUM CHROMATE
SODIUM CYANIDE
ZINC ARSENATE
ZINC ARSENITE
ZINC CYANIDE
HALOGENS & INTERHALOGEN
BROMINE PENTAFLUORIDE
CHLORINE
CHLORINE PENTAFLUORIDE
CHLORINE TRIFLUORIDE
FLUORINE
PERCHLORYL FLUORIDE
MISCELLANEOUS ORGANICS
ACROLEIN
DINITRO CRESOLS
DINITROTOLUENE
NITROGLYCERIN
107
-------
ORGANIC HALOGEN COMPOUNDS
MILITARY OPERATIONS WASTE
ALDRIN
CHLORINATED AROMATICS
CHLORODANE
COPPER ACETOARSENITE
DDD
DDT
DEMETON
DIELDREN
ENDRIN
ETHYLENE BROMIDE
FLUORIDES
GUTHION
HEPTACHLOR
LINDANE
METHYL BROMIDE
METHYL CHLORIDE
METHYL PARATHION
PARATHION
POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYLS
PLASTICIZERS
2, 4-D
CHLOROACETOPHENONE
COPPER ACETYLIDE (3)
CYANl/RIC TRIAZIDE (5)
DI AZODINITROPHENO L ( DDNP )
DIMETHYL SULFATE
DIPENTAERYTHRITOL-HEXA
NITRATE (DPEHN) (6)
GB
GELATINIZED NITROCELLULOSE
(PNC) (1J)
GLYCOL DINITRATE
LEAD AZIDE (4)
LEAD STYPHNATE (M)
MANNITOL HEXANITRATE
NITROGEN MUSTARDS
PICRIC ACID (1)
POTASSIUM DINITROBENZ-
FUROXAN (KDNBF) (2)
PRIMERS 4 DETONATORS
SILVER ACETYLIDE (5)
SILVER AZIDE (5)
TEAR GAS (CN)
TEAR GAS (CS) (7)
TETRAZENE
INORGANIC ELEMENTS AND COMPOUNDS VX
DECABORANE
DIBORANE
HEXABORANE
PENTABORANE-9
PENTABORANK-11
TETRABORANE
BMI ADDITIONS
ALKYL LEADS
CARCINOGENS (IN GENERAL)
(1) MILITARY ONLY
(2) MILITARY EXPERIMENTAL
(3) COMMERCIAL
(4) MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL
(5) DIMINISHING USE OR NONE
AT ALL
(6) MANUFACTURING WASTE
(7) MILITARY AND POLICE
(IN GiiiiEKAL)
CHLOROPICRIN
SELENIUM
SODIUM MONOFLUOROACETATE
THALLIUM COMPOUNDS
108
-------
WASTE STREAMS IDENTIFIED FOR DESIGN OF
NATIONAL DISPOSAL SITES
Legend
4- indicates information needed
0 indicates information obtained
Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
A. Metal Finishing
1. Aluminum Anodizing + 0
2. Brass Plating Wastes 4- 0
3. Cadmium Plating Wastes 4- 0
4. Chrome Plating Wastes 4- 0
5. Cold Finishing Wastes 4- 0
6. Cyanide Copper Plating Wastes 4- 0
7. Finishing Effluents 4- 4-
8. Metal Cleaning Wastes 4- +
9. Metal Finishing-Chromic Acid 4- 0
10. Plating Preparation Wastes 4- 0
11. Silver Plating Wastes + 0
12. Zinc Plating Wastes 4- 0
B. Primary Metals
1. Brass Mill Wastes 0 0
2. Cadmium Ore Extraction Wastes 4- 4-
3. Coke Plant Raw Waste 0 0
*». Consolidated Steel Plant Wastes 0 0
5. Iron Manufacturing Wastes 0 0
6. Mercury Ore Extraction Wastes 4- 4-
7. Recovered Arsenic from Refinery 0 0
Flues (Stored)
8. Selenium Ore Extraction Wastes 4- +
9. Stainless Steel Pickling + +
Liquor
C. Smelting and Refining
1. Arsenic Trioxide from Smelting 4- 0
Wastes
2. Copper and Lead Bearing Waste 4- 4-
3. Refinery Sludge 4- 4-
109
-------
Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
D. Heavy Manufacturing
1. Battery ,Manufacturing Wastes. + 0
(Liquid)
2. Battery Manufacturing Wastes + 0
(Sludges)
3« Refrigeration Equipment Manu- + 0
facturing Wastes
E. Printing;
1. Duplicating and Photo Equipment + -f
Manufacturing Wastes
2. Graphic Arts Photography Wastes 0 0
3. Rotogravure Printing Plate + 0
Wastes
F. Light Manufacturing
1. Mirror Production Wastes 0 0
0, Transportation Equipment
1. Aircraft Plating Wastes + 0
2. Arsenic Wastes from Transpor- + +
tation Industry
3. Railroad Engine Cleaning + +
H. Pulp and Paper Manufacturing
1. Pulp and Paper Wastes 0 0
I. Electrical Manufacturing
1. Computer Manufacturing Wastes + 0
2. Electric Circuitry Manufacturing + 0
Wastes
3. Electrical Blasting Fuses Manu- + 0
facturing Wastes
4. Electronic Tube Production + +
Wastes
5. Magnetic Tape Production Wastes + +
110
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Environmental
Protect;-.--; Aj-sncy
Region 9
JUls
LIBRARY
Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
J. Petroleum and Coal
1. Gasoline Blending Wastes + 0
2. Petroleum Refinery Still Bottoms 0 0
3. Reclaimers Residues + +
4. Waste Brine Sludge 0 0
K. Utilities
1. Arsenic Trichloride Stack Gas 0 0
Scrubber Waste
2. Utilities and Electrical Station + +
Arochlor Wastes
L. Pesticides
1. Agricultural Pesticide Arsenical 0 +
Wastes
2. Arsenate Pesticide Wastes + +
3. Carbonate Pesticide Manufac- 0 0
turing Wastes
4. Miscellaneous Organic Pesticide 0 0
Manufacturing Wastes
5. Nitrile Pesticide Wastes + +
6. Old Contaminated Thallium, + +
Thallium Sulfate and Thallium
Rodenticide
7. Organophosphorous Pesticide 0 0
Manufacturing Wastes
8. Pesticide Arsenic Wastes (Solid) + +
9. Polychlorinated Hydrocarbon 0 '0
Pesticide Wastes
10. Torpedo Process Wastes (Trade + +
Name)
11. Wastes from 1080 Production + +
M. Contaminated Containers
1. Benzole Herbicides 0 0
2. Calcium Arsenate 0 0
3. Carbamate Herbicides 0 0
1|. Chlorinated Aliphatic Herbicides 0 0
111
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Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
M. Contaminated Containers
5. Dlnitro Herbicides 0 0
6. Lead Arsenate 0 0
7. Mercury Fungicides 0 0
8. Miscellaneous Organic Herbicides 0 0
9. Miscellaneous Organic Insecticides 0 0
10. ' Organic Arsenical Herbicides 0 0
11. Organic Fungicides 0 0
12. Organophosphorous Pesticides 0 0
13. Phenoxy Herbicides 0 0
14. Phenyl-Urea Herbicides 0 0
15. Polychlorinated Hydrocarbon 0 0
Insecticides
16. Triazine Herbicides 0 0
N. Herbicides
1. Arsenite Pesticide - Herbicide + +
2.^ Benzole Herbicide Production 0 0
Wastes
3. Chlorinated Aliphatic Herbicide 0 0
4. Organic Arsenical Herbicide or -f +
Defoliating Agents from Manu-
facturing Cacodylates
5. Phenyl-Urea Herbicide Production 0 0
Wastes
6. Production Wastes and Residues 0 0
from Phenoxy Herbicides
0. Insecticides, Fungicide, Fumigants
1. Halogenated Aliphatic Hydrocarbon 0 0
Fumigant Manufacturing Wastes
2. Mercuric Insecticide and Fungi- + +
clde Manufacturing Wastes
P. Paint, Dye, Soap, Glass Etching
1. Chromate Wastes from Pigments + +
and Dyes
2. Dye Manufacturing Wastes + +
3. Wastes from the Paint Industry 4- 0
112
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Q. Pharmaceutical
1. Arsenical Wastes
2. Chlorine Containing Wastes
3. General Organic Wastes
*». Mercurial V/astes
R. Explosives
1. Contaminated or Waste Picric
Acid
2. Dynamite Manufacturing Wastes
3. Ignition Caps and Explosive
Bolt Manufacturing Wastes
4. Mercury Fulminate Production
Wastes
5. Nitrocellulose Propellant and
Smokeless Powder Manufacturing
Wastes
6. Nitroglycerin Production Wastes
?. Old Primers and Detonators -
Solid Waste Primary
8. Primary Explosives Contaminated
Wastes
9. Primer Materials
10. RDX
11. Solid Propellant Manufacturing
Wastes, Propellant Contaminated
Waste and Industrial propellant
explosive wastes
12. TNT Wastes
13. Waste High Explosives
14. Waste Nitrocellulose and Smokeless
Powder
15. Waste Nitroglycerin
S. Food and Kindred Products
1. Contaminated Orchard Soil
2. Wastes from Seed Industry
Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
113
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Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
T. Military
1. Arsenic Contaminated Soil 0 0
(Stored)
2. Arsenic Wastes from Military + +
(Solid)
3- Contaminated or Outdated Tear 4 +
Gas
4. Explosives from Military 4 +
Ordinance
5. Military Cadmium Wastes from + '+
Plating
6. Military Waste Spent Filter 4 +
Media
7. Off-Spec "Agent Orange" Defoliant 4 +
8; Paint Stripping Wastes, Vance 4 0
Air Force Base, OK
9. Stored Military Mercuric 0 0
Compounds
V. Textile Mill Production
1. Chrome Tanning Liquor 0 0
2. Nitrobenzene from Rubber Industry 4 +
Wastes
3. Rubber Heat Exchanger Wastes 4 +
V. Synthetic Fibers
1. Liquid and Slurry Wastes + 0
2. Nitrile Production Wastes + +
W. Organic' Chemicals
1. Acetaldehyde via Ethylene 0 *
Oxidation Production Wastes
2. Cellulose Ester Production Wastes 0 0
3. Chloropicrin Production Wastes + +
k. Contaminated Polychlorinated + +
Biphenyls
5. Co-synthesis Methanol Production 0 0
Wastes
6. Dimethyl Sulfate Production Wastes 4 +
114
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Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
W. Organic Chemicals
7. Formaldehyde Production Wastes 0 0
8. N-Butane Dehydrogenation Buta- 0 0
dlene Production Wastes
9. Petroleum Refinery Spent Caustics 0 0
10. Petroleum Refining Sour Wastes 0 0
11. Phosgene V/aste from Polymer + +
Production
12. Residues from Manufacture of 0 +
Ethylene Dichloride/Vinyl Chloride
13. Urethane Manufacturing Wastes + +
1H. Wood Preservative Wastes + +
X. Inorganic Chemicals
1. Agricultural Chemical Manufacturing + +
Wastes
2. Arsenic Wastes from Purification + +
of Phosphoric Acid
3. Beryllium Production Wastes + f
J). Borane Production Wastes and + 0
Contaminated Lots
5. Chlorine Production Brine Sludges 0 0
6. Contaminated Antimony Pentafluoride + +
7. Contaminated Antimony Trifluoride + +
8. Contaminated Fluorine + f
9. Contaminated Nickel Carbonyl + +
10. Cyanide Production Wastes + +
11. -Fluorine Production Wastes + +
12. Hydrazine Production Wastes + +.
13. Nitric Acid Wastes from Agricul- 0 +
tural" Chemical Production
I*!. Potassium Chromate Production 0 0
Wastes
15. Production Wastes from Ammonium + 0
Sulfate
16. Selenium Production Wastes + +
17. Sodium Dichromate Production Wastes 0 0
18. Tetraethyl - and Tetramethyl Lead + +
Production Wastes
19. Urea Production Wastes 0 0
115
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Production Geographic
Quantity Distribution
X. Inorganic Chemicals
20. Waste Bromine Pentafluoride + +
21. Waste Chlorine Pentafluoride + +
22. Waste Chlorine Trlfluoride + +
23. Waste from Manufacture of Barium » +
Compounds
24. Waste from Manufacture of Mercuric + +
Cyanide
116
-------
ADDITIONS TO THE HAZARDOUS CONSTITUENT LISTING
Lewisite
Magnesium Arsenite
Pentachlorophenol
Perchloric Acid (to 72%)
Copper Chlorotetrazole
Gold Fulminate
Hydrazine Azide/Kydrazine
Lead 2,4-Dinitroresorcinate (LDNR)
Nitrocellulose
Silver Tetrazene
Smokeless Gunpov/der
Tritium
NOTE: Plasticizers have been removed from Table
1-1 of the first monthly report until
further research clarifies the question
of harmful genetic effects.
«**
%
117
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. PAUL SULLIVAN, USBM - JANUARY 10, 1973
On Wednesday morning, January 10, 1973, three MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl, Dr. Stephen Lubore, and Dr. Charles Bisselle, visited
with Mr. Paul Sullivan (telephone number 344-4025), Director of the
Bureau of Mines Experimental Solid Waste Recycling Facility at College
Park, Maryland. We discussed the Strategic Environmental Assessment
System (SEAS) proposed by the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of
EPA.
The Bureau of Mines is interested in several aspects of solid waste
management. A large effort is directed toward alleviating the problems
associated with mining wastes. In addition to the large quantities of
wastes produced by mining operations, some of the wastes (e.g., phosphate
or uranium tailings) can present a health problem. Another topic under
study is the combustion value of some solid wastes.
The Bureau of Mines (BOM) is also studying urban refuse as a possible
source of minerals. Metals comprise some 10% of urban refuse and the
program at College Park is largely devoted to ascertaining the technical
and economic feasibility of extracting the "urban ore". Besides the
extraction of metals BOM is studying means of separating paper, plastics,
and glass. A typical breakdown of urban refuse* is given below:
Material Mean Weight (%)
Glass 9.9
Metal 10.2
Paper 51.6
Plastics 1.4
Leather, rubber 1.9
Textiles 2.7
Wood 3.0
Food Wastes 19.3
100.0
Mr. Sullivan noted that one has to be careful when reviewing refuse
composition statistics since some of the breakdowns are for wastes
destined for municipal incinerators and do not reflect actual urban
wastes (e.g., old refrigerators would be missing). Niesseu's paper
also provides estimates of future solid waste production.
One of the main problems associated with refuse separation and
recycling is the removal of putrescible substances. In order to get tin
cans suitable for detinning or glass for reuse, a rather thorough cleaning
is necessary. Another problem concerns the removal of highly combustible
materials. Gasoline or paint thinner residues in cans or bottles can
damage recycling equipment. Aerosol cans also fall in this category.
*"The Nature of Refuse," W. R. Niesseu and S. H. Chansky, Arthur D. Little
Co., paper presented at ASME National Incinerator Conference, Cincinnati,
Ohio, May 17-20, 1970.
118
-------
At the present time there is no good information regarding which
materials are the hardest to separate on a dollar per pound basis.
Studies being conducted at BOM labs around the country include:
Salt Lake City mining tailings (especially uranium)
Pittsburgh conversion of waste products (wood, manure) to oil;
flyash from power plants
Tuscaloosa phosphate slimes
Mr. Sullivan mentioned that Prof. Wallace T. Garrett of the
Agricultural Department of the University of Maryland is working on
the disposal of hazardous agricultural wastes, including pesticides.
An analysis of wastes from the packaging of goods can be found in
the 1969 EPA report "The Role of Packaging in Solid Waste Management,
1966-1976" by Arsen Barney and William Franklin.
After talking with Mr. Sullivan, we visited the nearby BOM experi-
mental solid waste separation and recycling plants. At the first plant,
which processes incinerator wastes, Mr. Roger DeCesare described the
operations of the various techniques used to sort wastes crushing,
screening, specific gravity separation, panning, magnetic separation,
and froth flotation. Mr. DeCesare noted that an approximate composition
of the incinerator wastes is 30% ferrous, 2% non-ferrous, 20% ash and
slag, and 50% glass.
At the second laboratory, which processes raw wastes directly from
the trash pick-up truck, Messrs. Ken Ivey and Martin Stanczyk described
the operations involved shredding, screening, magnetic separation,
air classification, and high intensity electric field separation of
paper and lightweight plastics.
119
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
DR. JOHN BUCKLEY, DECEMBER 12, 1972
On Tuesday afternoon, December 12, 1972, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, visited with Dr. John Buckley
(Telephone Number 755-0473) who is the Deputy Assistant to the Deputy
Assistant Administrator for Research, EPA. The purpose of the visit
was to discuss the list of pesticide residuals in connection with the
Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by the
Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA.
Although Dr. Buckley did not feel that he was in a position to
help narrow down the list, he did offer some advice as to certain
factors which should be taken into account. The first is the tendency
for many pesticides, especially the organochlorines, to accumulate.
This bioaccumulation means that repeated low doses can have effects
which may not be apparent until after many exposures.
Another important characteristic of any pesticide is its persistence.
This is a parameter analogous to the half-life of a radionuclide,
however, persistence has no clearly stated definition. Some authors
consider it as the time to 50% depletion; others consider it as the
elapsed time at which only bare traces of the original compound are
present; still other persistence values are given in terms of a time
period and a remaining percentage (e.g., at 10 years 14% remains). Ii
addition to no clear analytical definition of persistence, there are
no good operational definitions. The latter tend to be couched in
such phraseology as: nonpersistent no detectable residues beyond
a few hours, days, or weeks; persistent detectable residues remain
after a few weeks, months, or years.
Another operational definition is based upon the growing season.
A nonpersistent pesticide is considered as one which when applied
during one growing season is essentially ineffective by the next one.
This concept obviously depends upon the definition of growing season
which in turn depends upon several variables such as climate, soil
conditions, and crop type.
The persistence problem is further complicated in that the mechanism
for disappearance is not well understood. In the case of a radionuclide
after one half-life, there remains only one half of the original substance.
The other half has decayed into a totally different nuclide and no longer
exists anywhere in its original form. On the other hand a pesticide's
disappearance may be attributed to several causes - vaporization, runnoff,
plant uptake, leaching into deeper soil, or chemical/biological degradation.
Except for the last mechanism, these causes involve some form of transfer,
not a transformation, and the pesticide may persist elsewhere. Since
the persistence is generally measured in the same soil where the chemical
120
-------
was applied, the results can be misleading with regards to the amount
actually remaining in the overall environment. With regard to the
chemical/biological degradation it is generally agreed that the daughter
products are less harmful than the parent pesticides. Of course, there
are notable exceptions - parathion is metabolized to paraoxide which
is much more dangerous than its parent.
Concerning Milton Schecter's (Department of Agriculture, Beltsville,
Maryland) list of primary and secondary pesticides, Dr. Buckley felt
that they were based more on measurability than on characteristics
such as toxicity or persistence. Dr. Schecter is an analytical chemist
and is concerned with devising and refining techniques for measuring
various pesticides; therefore, it is felt that his list is a pragmatic
one based upon which pesticides can be readily and accurately measured.
When asked about usage (pounds of pesticides) Dr. Buckley pointed
out that only about half of the pesticides produced are used by farmers.
The other half is used by industrial and commercial firms, governments
at different levels, and in households. Except for farm use there are
no good estimates as to the usage breakdowns.
Dr. Buckley did point out that we have already narrowed the list
of residuals considerably since there are over 900 separate chemical
compounds compared to our list of just over 200 pesticides.
He also referred us to some other experts who might be able to
help us in narrowing the list:
Mr. Bill Upholt, EPA 755-0886
Dr. Warren Shaw, U.S.D.A. 344-3301
Mr. Ed Schuck, EPA 522-1653.
121
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
DR. WARREN SHAW, USDA - DECEMBER 18, 1972
On Monday morning, December 18, 1972, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, accompanied "by Mr. Sam
Ratick of the Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA, visited
the Beltsville offices of the Agricultural Research Center. There
we talked with Dr. Warren Shaw (Telephone Number 344-3301) regarding
the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by BSD
in EPA. The purpose of the visit was to discuss the list of pesticide
residuals and USDA modeling efforts.
Dr. Shaw was very enthusiastic about the development of good
predictive models; without them there may be a tendency to overact
and be too restrictive with the use of pesticides due to politics
and public pressure.
Dr. Shaw discussed several criteria which one should investigate
in order to reduce the size of the pesticide residual list:
o Persistence
o Toxicity
o Bioaccumulation
He considers persistence perhaps the single most important factor
and a value greater than one year would indicate a potentially trouble-
some pesticide. By chosing a value of less than one year, one may
essentially disregard more, than 95% of all pesticides in terms of a
major widespread effect.
With regard to toxicity an LD-50 value of less than 50 mg/kg of
body weight implies a relatively hazardous pesticide; a value of more
than 100 mg/kg implies a pesticide which can be generally disregarded
when looking for highly toxic substances. Because oral dosage to rats
is so widely reported, it is often used as a figure of merit when comparing
toxicities. However, there are other species and means of exposure
which should be considered. These data are not generally available on
any widespread consistent basis. Moreover, chronic exposure data are
often not available.
Dr. Shaw also pointed out that toxicity criteria should not
necessarily be based on human beings since man is an extremely durable
and tough species. Rather, the environmental impact should be based
upon more sensitive species which would better serve as an early warning.
As an example, he cited the effects of ozone in the air. Plants are
more sensitive than man, in particular tobacco and bean plants. Futher-
more, the tempo bean is highly sensitive. Therefore, he feels that air
quality standards should be based on the effects of ozone on this
particular crop. Similar reasoning would apply in the establishing of
pesticide standards.
122
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Bioaccumulation is a measure of the buildup of concentrations of
toxic substances in a particular species above ambient conditions caused
by a slow or non-existent metabolizing or excreting process. This
effect becomes important when considering the various links in the
food chain. For instance, animal species, B, feeding primarily on
plant, A, containing 5 ppm of a given pesticide, may store most of the
pesticide in its body and reach a concentration level of 1,000 ppm.
This represents an accumulation of 200 and animal C, feeding on B,
would be subject to much higher environmental poisoning than some
other higher order (same level as C) species which fed upon plant A
directly. Moreover, if C had a bioaccumulation factor of 50, then
its predator might be subject to intake concentrations of 10,000 ppm.
This phenomenon varies with the animal species, organs sampled, and
the type of pesticide making the problem tremendously complex in terms
of the various possible combinations.
Dr. Shaw referred us to several people who could be of further
assistance in their areas of expertise:
Insecticides
Dr. Paul H. Schwartz 344-3381
Mr. Stan A. Hall 344-2142
Herbicides
Dr. Walter Getner 344-3537
Dr. William B. Innis 344-3274
Fungicides
Dr. Harry Kiel 344-3575
Plant Growth Regulators
Dr. George L. Steffens 344-3477
Persistence
Dr. Phil Kearney 344-3082
Pesticides in Air
Dr. Howard E. Heggestad 344-3035
Pesticides in Water, Soil
Dr. Jesse Lunin 344-3278
Dr. Shaw also pointed out that there is an "Annual List of Toxic
Substances", edited by H. E. Christensen of the National Institute of
Occupation Safety and Health, DREW, in Rockville, Maryland.
With regards to modelling efforts he referred us to a study
performed last year by the Stanford Research Institute for the Council
on Environmental Quality.
123
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEWS WITH DR. PHIL KEARNEY AND
DR. ALLEN ISENSEE, USDA - DECEMBER 18, 1972
On Monday afternoon, December 18, 1972, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, accompanied by Mr. Sam
Ratick of the Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA, visited
the Agricultural Research Center in Beltsville, Maryland. We talked
with Dr. Phil Kearney (telephone number 344-3082) and then Drs. Allen
Isensee (344-3076), George Fries, and Charles Helling regarding the
pesticide residuals for the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) proposed by ESD in EPA.
Dr. Kearney pointed out that numerical toxicity values can be
misleading for comparing pesticides since different species and times-
to-effect are involved. He suggested that ranges such as high, medium,
and low be used instead and referred us to Dr. Kimbreau of EPA in
Chamblee, Georgia for further information on how to establish these
ranges. He also noted that impurities or metabolites may be more
dangerous than the nominal pesticide. A case in point concerns the
highly toxic Dioxin impurities found in 2, 4, 5-T.
Dr. Kearney noted that while some pesticides appear to persist
in soil, they are not necessarily found in other phases of the environ-
ment; in other words, some pesticides do not have much mobility.
Persistence and mobility are closely related and depend upon a number
of different processes: physical - photodecomposition, evaporation,
leaching, runoff; biological - root uptake, metabolism; chemical -
oxidation, hydrolysis. Persistence also depends on several other
factors such as application rate (pounds per acre), temperature, soil
pH, and soil type.
Another important criterion when ranking pesticides is disposability.
Although not much detailed information is available on this subject,
perhaps some gross measures such as "feasible" or "not readily feasible"
could be used.
With regard to production rates, Dr. Kearney felt that pesticides
with production values of less than a million pounds a year are not
highly significant. Of course, one would have to watch trends since
certain well known pesticides are being replaced with lesser known
ones which may reach significant production levels within a few years.
He suggested the "Herbicide Handbook of the Weed Society of America"
as a good reference text on herbicides.
124
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We then met with Dr. Isensee and his colleagues and they suggested
several criteria to use in selecting pesticides which could present a
problem:
o Persistence - greater than one year
o Bioaccumulation - more than a factor of 5,000 - 10,000
o Projected Usage - tons produced and/or used
o Toxicity - especially to non-target species
o Mobility - depends upon volatility, water solubility, leaching,
binding to soil.
Although they did not feel ready at the time to narrow down the
list, they said they would do so within a few days. A subsequent
telephone call resulted in the following list:
Organo chlo rines
Aldrin Heptachlor Epoxide
BHC Isodrin
Bulan Lindane
Chlordane Mirex
DDT Nonachlor
Dieldrin Prolan
Dilan Strobane
Endosulfan IDE
Endrin Toxaphene
Heptachlor
Organpphosphorus
Disulfoton
Parathion
Phorate
Herbicides
Arsan
Disodium Methyl Arsenate
Paris Green
Picloram
Arsenic Acid
Arsenic Trioxide
Sodium Arsenite
Fungicides
Organic Mercury Compounds
Dr. Isensee stressed the fact that when used according to instructions,
the above pesticides should not present any real problems. Moreover,
appearance on this list does not imply that a given pesticide should
be removed from the market.
125
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
DR. WILLIAM UPHOLT, EPA - DECEMBER 19, 1972
On December 19, 1972, Dr. Anthony Bisselle and Mr. Marty Scholl
of the MITRE Corporation interviewed Dr. William Upholt, Chief Scien-
tific Advisor to the Office of Categorial Programs of the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA). The purpose of this interview was to discuss
MITRE's draft taxonomy of pesticide residuals in conjunction with our
effort on the EPA Environmental Studies Division's Strategic Environ-
mental Assessment System (SEAS). The meeting was concise and directed
toward reducing the draft list to approximately 20 of the "important"
pesticides.
Dr. Upholt suggested two general criteria for determining the
importance of a pesticide as a residual or pollutant causing a direct
human health problem or causing a long-term ecological effect. Sub-
sumed under these general criteria are the subjects of toxicity to
man, transport, toxicity to other than the target species, amount of
use, persistance and known bioaccumulation. '
Within the first category, health effects on man either through
occupational exposure or through the food chain, Dr. Upholt specified
the following pesticides within the indicated categories as important.
Organo chlo rines
DDT & isomers, metabolites
Dieldrin
Heptachlor & Heptachlor epoxide
Toxaphene
Organophosphorus
Guthion
EPN
Methyl Parathion
Parathion & Paraoxon
Herbicides
Phenoxy Group (due to the inherent impurity Dioxin)
2, 4-D
2, 4, 5-T
MCPA
Silvex
Pentachlorophenol
Picloram
Rodenticides
Sodium Fluoroacetate
Thallium Sulfate
Zinc Phosphide
126
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In addition to its acute toxic effects, each of these pesticides
must be further evaluated with respect to each of three potential effects
on humans carcenogenic, mutogenic or teratogenic. One additional
chemical, paraquat, was added to this list due to its tendency to
calcify the lungs.
Within the second category--long-term environmental effects
Dr. Upholt included the following pesticides due to some combination of:
its wide-spread use and associated potential for eradicating an entire
species, its potential to kill off other than its target species or
a very long bioaccumulation period.
Organochlorines
DDT & isomers, metabolites
Dieldrin
Heptachlor & Heptachlor epoxide
Toxaphene
Carbanates
Carbaryl (very wide-spread use)
Herbicides as a class, as it tends to remove ground cover causing
loss of habitat and allowing increased erosion, also very
wide-spread use.
Rodenticides
Sodium Fluoracetate
Thallium Sulfate
Zinc Phosphide
Dr. Upholt also indicated that one of the major sources of pesti-
cides, other than the amounts which are used in agricultural processes
(some 40 to 50% of the total pesticide production) are chemical wastes
from pesticide chemical plants. These consist of processing by-products
and low grade pesticides not fit for agricultural use. It was not
clear as to how these by-products are disposed of. Additionally, pesti-
cides are used in certain manufacturing processes (e.g., mothproofing
carpets) and the disposal of these liquid wastes presents a significant
potential problem.
Man's general exposure to these pesticides may be through air, food
and water or through occupational contact. However, the food and water
potential are highest from the direct health effects viewpoint and water
alone from the long-term environmental viewpoints (the latter due to
the potential hazard to large populations of organisms).
127
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In addition to pesticides, Dr. Upholt suggested several important
residuals for consideration in other areas of concern. Briefly these were;
Water
Sediment
(largest problem from
a volume viewpoint)
Pesticides
Nutrients
Phosphates
Nitrates
Microbial disease organisms
Mercury "j
Cadmium L high toxicity
PCB's J
Thermal Pollution
partially from
non-point sources and
therefore, difficult to
control
Radiation
Tritium - largest quantity (in curies) radioactive discharge
from nuclear energy plants.
Noise
Bock bands and similar man-made sound amplification for audio
stimulation
Transportation noise (a very complex tradeoff of proper balance
between air, water and land from an economic, hazard and
emergency services point-of-view)
Solid Waste (Major Problem Areas)
Disposal of hazardous substances (pesticides, weapons, heavy
metals, etc.)
Mine tailings and acid drainage
Sludge - sewage
Feedlot wastes (contributing more than 60% of the sewage to
various streams)
Food processing (cannery and slaughter house wastes)
Packaging materials (paper, plastics, glass and metals)
Lastly, Dr. Upholt provided us with two references for further con-
tacts for reduction of the draft noise taxonomy: Dr. Alvin Myers and
John Schettino, both of the new Office of Noise Programs.
128
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH MR. HAL PETERSON,
MR. JACK NELSON AND DR. GORDON BURLEY, ORP/EPA - DECEMBER 6, 1972
On the afternoon of Wednesday, December 6, 1972, representatives
of The MITRE Corporation, Dr. Stephen Lubore, Mr. Martin Scholl, and
Dr. Charles Bisselle, visited the Office of Radiation Programs (ORP)
in Rockville. We met with representatives of the three major ORP
divisions to discuss their potential input and reactions to the
Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) which is being
proposed by the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of the Office
of Research and Monitoring, EPA. The three ORP representatives were:
NAME DIVISION TELEPHONE NUMBER
Mr. Hal Peterson Technology Assessment 443-4560
Mr. Jack Nelson Field Operations 443-3414
Dr. Gordon Burley Criteria and Standards 443-3921
We began the meeting with a short briefing on the SEAS program.
The first questions asked by the ORP representatives were related to
the overall direction of data management within EPA. What kinds of
machines are going to be used? By whom and at what level in EPA?
Would SEAS supercede the modelling efforts of ORP? We felt that
it was not intended that SEAS obviate current activities in any areas
of EPA outside ESD. This intention was conveyed to the ORP representatives,
The field of radiation monitoring and modelling is generally
considered to be more advanced than for other categories of pollution.
Although ORP, as such, is relatively new, the Atomic Energy Commission
and the Bureau of Radiological Health have been studying the problems
for over 20 years and a great deal of information and expertise is
available, much of which has been transferred to ORP.
With regard to the SEAS effort ORP wondered whether the system
would pertain only to U.S. pollution or only to U.S. population.
Because of their expertise with radioactive fallout, radiation
modelling often has had to take into account global considerations.
We indicated that the U.S. was our primary concern.
Upon presentation of MITRE's list of some 80 radionuclide residuals
for their comments, ORP's initial reaction was that few, if any, of
the isotopes should be cut from the list; in fact, they may want to
add a few. ORP did stress that longer-lived isotopes would be of
more concern. The reluctance to pare the list is based upon the fact
that even with isotopes of the same element (e.g., Iodine) there is a
wide range in health effects due to differences in pathways, half-lives,
type and energy of radiation. In other words, there are unique problems
associated with each radionuclide and to eliminate a few here and there
could easily result in a model so grossly oversimplified as to be
misleading or even incorrect. Moreover, ORP strongly objects to using !
total curies, gross 3 or gross a as a meaningful parameter in a system
designed to ascertain health effects.
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Although ORP is reluctant to sanction a list of radionuclldes
small enough to be of manageable use to ESD, ORP feels a better
service would be rendered if OEP were asked to operate (or lend)
their own model in parallel with that of ESD. ORP's model considers
the wide variety of isotopes they feel are necessary. It can accept
inputs such as population growth, energy demand, nuclear power plant
mix and can provide outputs such as the average dose to the population
or certain types of health effects. ORP feels that the important
doses to consider are a) lung, b) bone, c) skin, d) thyroid, e) gonads,
and f) total.
It should be noted that ORP's model deals only with radioactive
releases and does not consider any of the other types of pollutants
which may be emitted from components of the nuclear fuel cycle (e.g.,
thermal discharges, non-radioactive particulates and gases, acid
wastes, etc.). These types of information would have to be considered
by SEAS.
In summary, in the case of radiation, it appears that obtaining
a small list of radioactive residuals is not really so important
as long as the expected dose values can be determined. Residuals,
as such, are "buried" in the ORP model and the desired pathways,
distributions, uptakes, dose-to-effacts conversions are built into
their program. Their model also considers direct dose which does
not necessarily result from a knowledge of residuals.
The ORP representatives indicated that their model is about
three years from full operational status. However, they were quite
optimistic that first cut values for the transfer functions relating
the above mentioned input parameters to dose and effect could be
provided in six to nine months.
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
DR. CHARLES PELLETIER, AEC - DECEMBER 18, 1972
On Monday afternoon, December 18, 1972, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Charles Bisselle, accompanied by Mr. Sam Ratick
of the Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA, visited the Bethesda
offices of the Atomic Energy Commission. There we talked with
Dr. Charles Pelletier (973-7413) and Mr. Leo Higginbotham of the
Environmental Inspection Branch regarding the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by ESD in EPA. The purpose of the
visit was to discuss the list of radionuclide residuals and AEC
modelling efforts.
Residuals
As a first cut at reducing the size of the list, they suggested
the following radioisotopes be kept on the list.
H-3 Sr-89 Xe-135
Cr-51 Sr-90 Xe-135m
Mn-54 Zr-95 Xe-138
Co-58 Nb-95 Cs-134
Co-60 Mo-99 Cs-137
Zn-65 1-129 Ba-140
Kr-85 1-131 La-140
Kr-85m 1-133 Ce-141
Kr-87 1-135 Gross a
Kr-88 Xe-133 Gross p
The AEC representatives then explained their selection process for
the above listing. First, they were only considering releases from
nuclear power plants and the fuel reprocessing facilities. Secondly,
their choices were based mainly on prevelance of measurable releases.
When asked to pick the top "five" most important isotopes, they narrowed
the list further:
Co-60 1-129
Kr-85 1-131
Sr-90 Cs-137
The same type of criteria, only stricter, was employed for this
selection. They did, however, point out that, given more time, one
should really consider several factors together:
Half-life
Prevalence (or quantity released)
Dose/Curie.
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All other factors being equal, a longer-lived isotope is more
hazardous because its toxicity persists and there is a greater chance
for bioaccumulation to occur. Prevalence depends upon the amount of a
particular radionuclide produced (i.e., fission yield) and the ability
to prevent or control releases (cladding, filters, ion-exchanges, hold-up
tanks, etc.). The dose per curie released is a complex factor which
takes into account various pathways (air, water, food chain), type and
energy of radiation emitted, and body chemistry.
A few miscellaneous items were mentioned: a) 1-131 is much more
important as an air pollutant than as a water effluent, b) Cu-64 and
Np-239 are not expected to be of any consequence in the future, and
c) "zero release" reactors are more propaganda than fact at this point.
Models
Several models were mentioned which may be of interest to the
SEAS effort:
a) "Year 2000" - model prepared for the AEC by Battelle Northwest
to study radionuclides in Mississippi River Basin. Andy Persesley's
group at Oak Ridge and personnel from TVA are studying the
feasibility of applying this model to the Tennessee River Basin.
b) Oak Ridge model on source terms with an emphasis on power plant
emissions - John Collins and Vic Benaroya of AEC are good contacts.
c) Nuclear Utilities. Services, Inc. (NUS) has a model involving
a micrometeorological analysis.
d) The American Nuclear Society (ANS) is developing a model. A
good contact is:
Paul Voilleque
Idaho Operations Office, AEC
(208) 526-2334
With regard to health effects a good article ("Risks of Radiation
Exposure") appeared in a 1967 issue of Journal of Health Physics. The
National Academy of Science has recently issued a study of health
effects (copies can be obtained through the Office of Radiation Programs,
EPA). The National Council on Radiation Protection has recently
published a set of recommended dose limits. The list of maximum
permissible concentrations in 10CFR20 is based primarily on health
effects while the listing in 10CFR50, Appendix I, also takes control-
lability into consideration.
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
DR. ALVIN MEYER, EPA - JANUARY 12, 1973
On the afternoon of January 12, 1973, Mr. Marty Scholl, Dr. Stephen
Lubore and Dr. Charles Bisselle met with Dr. Alvin Meyer, Director,
Office of Noise Abatement and Control of EPA. The purpose of this
meeting was to arrive at a preliminary assessment of how noise pollution
could best be factored into the development of the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System (SEAS) currently being formulated by the Environmental
Studies Division (ESD) of EPA.
Dr. Meyer indicated that noise is perhaps the only pollutant of
current wide-spread concern which is not a "residual" in the sense
of a useless or harmful by-product left in the environment after the
action of a process. When the process (or source) is no longer active,
the pollutant disappears. Thus measurement of the amount of noise is
very source related. On the other hand, noise is not transported to
receptors in the same sense as radiation, pesticides, heavy metals
and the like. Thus measurement of noise exposure is directly related
to the receptors proximity to noise sources and the presence of
intervening barriers. Therefore, it would seem to be more useful
from an effects-related point of view to measure noise level at the
receptor. To do this in an accurate manner would require individuals
to carry noise metering and recording equipment for a long enough
period of time to obtain an adequate sample. The results of such a
measurement effort would, however, be strongly dependent upon the style
of life of the individuals involved. In addition, measurement of noise
exposure at the receptor doesn't lend itself to identification of the
noise sources which may have caused detrimental effects.
The implication of this discussion are threefold:
Measurement of noise level at a source is inadequate to predict
exposure.
Measurement at specific mobile receptors may not be indicative
of exposure of the general population nor may general population
exposure be indicative of high level hazardous exposure.
Similarly, measurement at surrogate stationary receptor sites
may not be indicative of true individual exposure even with
well developed mixes of surrogate levels.
Continuing this line of discussion, Dr. Meyer indicated that there
are no agreed upon thresholds at which noise level becomes hazardous
or a nuisance. This is primarily due to the noise level vs. exposure
time interrelationships which affect hearing loss, as well as the less
understood relationship between noise levels and psychological and
psychophysical phenomenon.
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It would seem that both the source-exposure and the exposure-effects
relationships for noise pollution are less well understood than they
are for other categories of residuals. Perhaps the first need is to
develop a useful and acceptable set of surrogate indicators relating
noise effects to noise sources. Along these lines Dr. Meyer's office
is currently undertaking a joint effort with DOT, HUD, and DREW, aimed
at developing such relationships. It is estimated that this study
will take about five years to complete. The program definition phase
is funded at $0.5 million.
Dr. Meyer indicated that he has a pressing need to define a set
of surrogate indicators which he can use to measure effectiveness of
his program over a 5 to 10 year time frame and that he is very much
interested in the SEAS effort as a potential source of such a program
evaluation tool. He also referred us to the EPA Series on Noise
(EPA Document numbers NTID 300.1 through NTID 300.15) for further
analytical data.
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. ELLISON BURTON, EPA - JANUARY 15, 1973
On Monday morning, January 15, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Dr. Stephen Lubore and Mr. Martin Scholl, visited with Mr. Ellison
Burton (telephone number 755-2811), Chief of Standards and Regulations
Evaluation Division, Office of Planning and Evaluation, EPA. We dis-
cussed the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed
by the Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA.
Mr. Burton stressed that a system such as SEAS to be useful should
be structured as a threat model where future environmental threats
could be hypothesized through a scenario approach. These scenarios
would be analyzed to determine the resources (man power and dollars)
and federal authority required to deal with the threats. The analysis
would be parameterized over conceivable ranges of the possible threat
in order to determine sensitivity of the results of the analysis.
Mr. Burton further felt that the SEAS system should address the
social, economic, and political problems concommitant with providing
each of several degrees of control (and, therefore, levels of environ-
mental improvement) as well as the social, economic, and political
problems of taking no action at all.
He further suggested that the model should be used by other federal
agencies as well as EPA by taking into account the environmental impact
of each of the alternative courses of action possible in their policy
formulation. He felt that emphasis should be given to how the outputs
of SEAS should be used. He felt that the SEAS effort should be oriented
to enhance the NEPA act although it is not clear how NEPA is supposed
to work.
Mr. Burton's division has recently completed a contractual effort
with Development Sciences, Inc. which addressed the problem of intermedia
effects of setting standards. This study provides an analytic framework
for considering cross media interactions of residuals when controls are
implemented.
Mr. Burton expressed his concern with an index approach to deter-
mining overall environmental impact of a particular action. He felt
that indices are not a good proxy for real data. The existing laws
and regulations do not allow for flexible control by moving a pollutant
from one media to another. The laws set specific pollutant levels
which must not be exceeded and looking at multi-pollutant indices is
not a useful way of measuring standard attainment.
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Last Mr. Burton emphasized that a modeling effort in-and-of itself
will not be useful to program planners unless it is couched in an overall
functional decision making framework. The procedures involved in such
a process are not well defined at the present time and should be
addressed in the overall SEAS effort.
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MR. FLOYD CHILDRESS, NOAA - JANUARY 15, 1973
On Monday morning, January 15, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Stephen Lubore, visited with Mr. Floyd
Childress (telephone number 496-8391) of the Marine Ecological System
Assessment (MESA) Program, Office of Marine Resources, NOAA, We
discussed the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed
by the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of EPA.
The MESA Program is a comprehensive study of the New York Bight
and the effects of environmental contamination upon the ecology of the
Bight. This study is in its initial stages and no model development
or data base construction has as yet taken place. The Oceanic Division
of Westinghouse prepared a Program Development Plan for the MESA Program
in September of 1972. This plan mentions a model development effort
but only describes a very general approach in a two page discussion.
The MESA Program office is planning to hold a conference on
environmental modeling in the Spring or Summer of 1973 to discuss
models applicable to this type of study. The NOAA people have had
some contact with EPA through an Interagency Committee on Marine
Science and Engineering. Mr. Arnold Joseph of EPA serves on this
committee.
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
MSSRS. JOHN ROBSON AND DAVE SANCHEZ, EPA - JANUARY 17, 1973
On Wednesday morning, January 17, 1973, two MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl and Dr. Stephen Lubore accompanied by Mr. Sam Ratick
of the Environmental Studies Division (ESD) of EPA, visited with
Mr. John Robson and Mr. Dave Sanchez (telephone number 919 688-8146,
extension 270) of the Land Use Planning Branch, Office of Air Programs,
EPA in Durham, N.C. Dr. Ron Venezia, Chief of the Branch, was also
in attendance for a portion of the visit. The purpose of the visit
was to discuss how the effects upon environmental quality of various
land usage could be incorporated in the design of the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) proposed by ESD.
The primary activity of this Branch of the Office of Air Programs
is directed toward relating land use and its concommitant transportation
activities to ambient air quality. Mr. Robson indicated that, in the
short term, land use planning cannot be effective in achieving the
1976 ambient air quality standards. In the long term, however, land
use planning for growth and expansion can be effectively applied to
reduce emissions by considering the environmental capacity of the
area undergoing development.
It was pointed out that at the present time good relationships
between land use and air emissions of pollutants are not available.
Besides the direct emissions from transportation activities, an
important source of air pollution (primarily particulates) is the
construction and grading of roads and highways. This fugitive dust
is a particular problem in the Southwestern portion of the U.S.
Mssrs. Robson and Sanchez both felt that the SEAS definition of
residuals must be refined when applied to land use. They pointed
out that in the classic economic sense a residual is a non-beneficial
(of no economic value) result of an economic activity. In this
context, even the lands despoiled by strip mining are not residuals
since the use of the land in this manner has economic value. Their
approach to land use and development is based upon dominance and
succession relationships. In this context, the filling of Wetlands
for use at a higher level of economic activity are justifiable. They
recognize, however, that environmental diseconomies must be considered
in such an approach.
Proceeding along this line of reasoning, they suggested that the
basic rent theory of Ricardo might be used to define residuals relating
to land use and development activities. This theory ascribes two
values to land: a) productivity through mining or agricultural
activities, and (b) economic advantages due to location and space.
The primary residual of the location and space categorization are land
scarcity and undesirable population densities (urban congestion).
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Mssrs. Robson and Sanchez suggested that the NEPA Act and CEQ
Guidelines for Environmental Impact Statements could be the basis for
modeling the effects of land use in SEAS. Specifically, the considera-
tion of "irreversible and irretrievable commitments of resources"
(including land) might be included in the SEAS system design.
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NOTES ON SEAS INTERVIEW WITH
DR. JAMES HIBBS, EPA - JANUARY 23, 1973
On Tuesday afternoon, January 23, 1973, three MITRE representatives,
Mr. Martin Scholl, Dr. Stephen Lubore, and Dr. Charles Bisselle,
visited with Dr. James R. Hibbs (telephone number 755-0648), Assistant
to the Chief, Implementation Research Division, Office of Research,
EPA. We discussed the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS)
proposed by the Environmental Studies Division (BSD) of EPA.
Dr. Hibbs indicated that the SEAS program would serve to complement
the work performed by the Implementation Research Division. Theirs
is a more near-term effort and he explained their program in terms of
the four branches within the division:
Economic Analysis Branch - develop methodologies and data for
cost/benefit (health effects) analyses. At present both costs
and benefits are at best given by a few data points here and
there. It is hoped that in another two to four years functions
will be developed to provide a spectrum of cost and benefit
information.
Standards Research Branch - this group addresses such problems
as regional vs. national standards and cross-media effects.
The latter study involves the potential water pollution or
landfill problems caused by the implementation of, say, air
pollution legislation.
Systems Evaluation Branch - study the implications of standards,
not from a regulatory point of view, but with respect to
obtaining the desired environmental results through marketplace
mechanism (e.g., tax on S02 emissions). This group is also
evaluating the feasibility of solid waste recycling as well
as means of achieving water quality in municipal areas.
Ecological Studies and Technology Assessment Branch - one of
the functions of this group is to evaluate various abatement
technologies and the future problems created by different
approaches. Another study area is the feasibility of using
NEPA-required environmental impact statements as a mechanism
toward improving environmental quality.
Dr. Hibbs noted that the Implementation Research Division was trying
to establish an empirical data base upon which a later modelling effort
could be built. However, at present, this is proving to be extremely
difficult since a) there are no good baseline data, b) there are no
reliable projections of technological changes and their implications,
and c) there is very little information regarding cause and effect
relationships in the health area.
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With regard to modeling efforts Dr. Hibbs mentioned the work being
conducted in the State of Arizona by the Four Corners Regional Commission
(D.C. office telephone number 967-5534). Battelle (Columbus) is the
contractor for this project which is called the Arizona Trade-Off Model
(ATOM).
Another model is EQUIPS which is being developed by Dr. Jack
Cumberland of the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland.
The Office of Environmental Affairs, Atomic Energy Commission is also
interested in this model and has contracted with Battelle (Pacific
Northwest Lab) for the following report:
"Data for Preliminary Demonstration Phase of the Environmental
Quality Information and Planning System (EQUIPS)", BNWL-B-141 (December 1971)
Dr. Hibbs commented that Walter Isard has performed some regional
modelling using the Leonteif input/output approach. This work can be
found in:
"Ecologic-Economic Analysis for Regional Development," Free Press,
New York, N.Y. (1972).
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APPENDIX C
SELECTED ABSTRACTS OF ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH EFFORTS
This appendix contains selected abstracts and citations of analysis
and research efforts which may prove useful in the development of SEAS.
Section III of this paper presents a brief summary and categorization
of these efforts.
The abstracts presented are organized by major area of concern -
air, water, solid waste, pesticides, radiation and noise - together
with a general area in the same manner as in Section III.
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AIR
Regional Air Quality Control
A-l REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION STUDY (RAPS): A PROSPECTIVE.
Part I - Summary, Part II - Research Plan, Part III - Research
Facility, Part IV - Management Plan. Stanford Research Institute,
Menlo Park, California, prepared for EPA, National Environmental
Research Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, January
1972.
Part I - Summary
The initial purpose of the Regional Air Pollution Study is to
evaluate and demonstrate how well the effectiveness of air pollution
control strategies on all scales appropriate to air quality within
a region can be assessed and predicted. Its further purpose is
to serve as the basis for developing improved control strategies
that can be applied generally.
Both purposes require the development of a better understanding
of the chemical, physical, and biological processes that are
entailed in determining the concentration of pollutants and the
modification of air quality. They also require a better under-
standing of certain human, social, and economic factors that are
significant in formulating control strategies. Above all, however,
they require the testing, verification, evaluation, and improvement
of mathematical simulation models that are the basic tools of
scientific air quality management and a knowledge of how such
models can be used the most effectively.
It should be noted that the overall purpose of RAPS is to
provide the basis necessary for the formulation of control strat-
egies rather than to develop control and abatement procedures as
such.
Part II - Research Plan
A comprehensive overview is given of the three principal com-
ponents contained in the process of air pollution: meteorological
processes, atmospheric chemistry and transformation processes, and
the emission sources. The general state of the art of these com-
ponents is discussed. Also, specific research tasks to be carried
out during the study are defined and the major problem areas on
which to focus the study are identified. Existent models are
discussed.
Part III - Research Facility
Conceptual definition and detailed discussion of the permanent
instrument, data-handling, and processing facility planned for the
Regional Study as well as discussion of choice of facility.
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Part IV -^ Management Plan
Scheduling, management and staffing for the study, and the
estimated costs of the St. Louis facility, Research Plan and mixed
layer observational program.
A-2 A REGIONAL AIR QUALITY SIMULATION MODEL (A DESCRIPTION OF THE
CONNECTICUT AIR POLLUTION MODEL AS DEVELOPED BY THE TRAVELERS
RESEARCH CENTER). Bowne, Normal E., and Robinson, G. D., U.S. National
Technical Information Service. Government Reports Announcements,
72(8): 170-171, April 25, 1972. Also in: Research Corporation
of New England. Hartford, Conn. Publication No. APTD-0930,
81 pages, Sept. 1971.
An air quality model is described which assumes a form of
solution for a single source, inserts appropriate empirical para-
meters, and sums the solutions over all sources. Three source
categories are recognized in the model: major, intense, discon-
tinuous sources; numerous minor sources which are treated as
continuous area sources; and sources beyond the boundary of the
model. Special devices (submodels) which were needed to deal
with the proximity of very large sources, unknown in detail, in
the area of New York City are also described.
A-3 DEVELOPING TIME-CONCENTRATION MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR VARIOUS
POLLUTANTS. Unknown, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air
Pollution Control Office, Durham, North Carolina 27709.
Using frequency distribution and other mathematical concepts,
develop and up-date models describing air quality in representative
AQCR's.
A-4 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR AIR POLLUTION OVER
CONNECTICUT, Vol. 1, Hilst, G., Yocum, J., and Bowne, N.,
Report 7233-279a, The Travelers Research Center, Inc., Hartford,
Connecticut, 1967.
Air Pollution Abatement
A-5 AN ECONOMIC MODEL SYSTEM FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS OF AIR
POLLUTION ABATEMENT. By CONSAD Research Corp., May 15, 1971,
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Air Pollution abatement leads to changes in economic output,
labor markets, the availability of capital, as well as redistri-
bution within the entire economy. The economic model being dis-
cussed focused on the regional economies of the various Air Quality
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Control Regions. There has been an increased focus in the model
toward the assessment of interregional and national economic effects
in addition to regional effects. However, the model system is
still a regional economic system with capabilities to measure, in
a limited manner, the interregional and national effects.
A-6 THE OAP REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL: A REVISED VERSION, Volumes
1 and 2, CONSAD Research Corp., September 25, 1972, Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania.
A refinement of the model described in A-5, "An Economic Model
System for the Assessment of Effects of Air Pollution Abatement,"
by CONSAD
A-7 THE EVALUATION OF THE COST OF ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR AIR
POLLUTION CONTROL. Temple Univ., Philadelphia, Pa., Dept of
Economics. Azriel Teller, and 3. R. Norsworthy. In: Natural
Resource Systems Models in Decision Making, Water Resources
Research Center, Purdue Univ., p. 87-99, 1970.
Some current work in developing models to evaluate alternative
strategies for air resource management was outlined. The social
objective was the minimization of the total cost of air pollution
to society subject to varying institutional constraints. Two
basic models were developed. One, the linear programming model
used in conjunction with meteorological transport coefficients,
permitted the design of an economically efficient system of air
pollution control. In order to achieve higher air quality for a
given dollar outlay, or to lower the cost of achieving a given
air quality standard, selective, instead of uniform abatement and
intermittent abatement based on forecasting meteorological condi-
tions, rather than continuous abatement, were used. The more
general simulation program described not only optimized the model
but permitted consideration of non-linear functions as well as
limited management of the time-phased abatement investment deci-
sion problem facing industries. By adjusting parameters in the
simulation program, the sensitivity of the optimal abatement plan
design to uncertainty in cost, meteorological, and other data was
determined. A method for estimating the cost of satisfying a
sequence of quality standards over several years was discussed.
A-8 A MODEL FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL. R. E. Kohn, Southern Illinois .
University, Graduate School, Carbondale, Illinois
There is no single measurement of air quality as such. Air
pollution is an overall category including individual pollutants
such as aldehydes, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides,
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sulfur oxides, particulates, benzo(a)pyrene, etc. Since control
methods usually affect more than one pollutant and sometimes
increase some while decreasing others, a multi-pollutant model
is required to determine an efficient set of control methods.
Linear programming can be useful vehicle for the multipollutant
model.
Generally, linear programming models are static, optimizing
for a specific year. However, air pollution control requires
long-run considerations. The solution for any one year, if imple-
mented, restricts the choice of control alternatives for future
years. This project considers the implementation of a dynamic
model. Such a model can suggest optimal long-run strategies for
air pollution control, assess the significance of technological
advancement in abatement, and be useful in providing the pollution
parameters for solving the growing problem of solid waste disposal.
The site of this research is the St. Louis airshed, the most
thoroughly investigated area in the United States as far as air
pollution is concerned. Not only is a great amount of data from
past studies available, but the fact that air pollution regulations
have already been passed makes industry leaders much more communi-
cative on the subject of control technology.
A-9 A COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODEL FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL WITH A SINGLE
STOCHASTIC VARIABLE. R. E. Kohn, J. American Statistical Assoc.,
67, 19-22 (1972).
Urban Dispersion Models
A-10 A MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODEL OF ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT PHENOMENA
IN URBAN AREAS. Mahoney, J. R. and Egan, B. A., Harvard University,
School of Public Health, Boston, 1971.
Initial results of a program to develop air pollution predic-
tion models (mesoscale meteorological models) which more accurately
reflect urban scale meteorological phenomena are described. The
use of any advection-diffusion equation as the basic model equation
is explained and finite difference approximation forms of the
analytic equation are developed. Initial results indicate the
important influence of wind speed and diffusion coefficient distri-
butions upon estimates of ground level concentrations.
A-ll MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF URBAN AIR POLLUTION DYNAMICS, Vol. II.
A MULTIPLE-SOURCE MODEL OF TURBULENT DIFFUSION AND DISPERSION IN
URBAN ATMOSPHERES. Shieh, Liau-Jang, New York University, School
of Engineering and Science. Research Division. Geophysical Sciences
Laboratory. Report No. TR-69-11, Dec. 1969.
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A source oriented three-dimensional model of diffusion and
transport based upon the statistical concept of turbulent diffu-
sion is constructed for an urban area. A simple mathematical
algorithm has been found for computing the concentration field
from time-dependent continuous area sources of different scales.
Point sources are treated separately in the usual manner. The
model has been specialized to take into account the specific
meterological conditions and the pollution source distribution
characteristic of the metropolitan New York area. With slight
modification this model can be applied to any urban region. The
validity of the model has been checked by comparing the computed
concentrations with observed values. The results are good over
spatial scales of the order of 0.2 miles.
A-12 USER1 S MANUAL FOR THE APRAC-1A URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL COMPUTER
PROGRAM. PB 213-091 from National Technical Information Service,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Springfiled, Virginia.
The SRI APRAC-1A diffusion model computes the concentrations
of pollutants at any point within a city. At present, it calculates
hourly averages of carbon monoxide as a function of extraurban
diffusion from automotive sources in upwind cities, intraurban
diffusion from roadway sources, and local diffusion from emissions
within a street canyon. The computer program can be operated in
any one of the following modes:
a) Synoptic; real time mode that generates hourly concentrations
as a function of time.
b) Climatological; statistical prediction of frequency of
occurrence of levels for planning purposes.
c) Grid-point; calculates levels at various locations in a
geographical grid providing detailed horizontal patterns.
A-13 CLIMATOLOGICAL DISPERSION MODEL, EPA, National Environmental
Research Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
The Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM) determines long
term (seasonal or annual) quasi-stable pollutant concentrations
at any ground level receptor using average emission rates from
point and area sources and a joint frequency distribution of wind
direction, wind speed, and stability for the same period.
This model differs from the Air Quality Display Model (AQDM,
see A-48) primarily in the way in which concentrations are deter-
mined from area sources, the use of Briggs' plume rise, and the use
of an exponential increase in wind speed with height dependent upon
stability.
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Technical details of the computer programming are discussed,
complete descriptions of input, output, and a test case are given.
Included are flow diagrams and a source program listing.
A-14 AN URBAN ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION MODEL. Roberts, John J., Edward
S. Croke, and Allen S. Kennedy. Public Health Service, National
Air Pollution Control Administration and North Carolina Consortium
on Air Pollution, Proc: Symp. Multiple-Source Urban Diffusion
Models, Chapel Hill, N.C., 1969, p. 6-1 to 6-72. APTIC No. 41657.
A computerized, multi-source, atmospheric dispersion model
designed for operational use in air resource management has been
formulated and programmed for the IBM 360-75 system. This inte-
grated puff model provides a more realistic physical simulation
of the processes of smoke plume dispersion than has hitherto been
employed, since it provides for simulation of near-zero wind speed
conditions, models three dimensional wind vector variation and
atmospheric diffusion, including up-wind-downwind diffusion, and
permits variation of stability and mixing layer depth with time.
The model consists of a series of algorithms assembled around a
kernal that represents the transport and diffusion of pollutant
species from point and area sources according to a Gaussian
distribution in three dimensions. At present, the model is in
the early stages of validation and has been tested against 1 month
of hourly-average sulfur dioxide data from five Chicago air quality
monitoring stations. The ratio of standard deviation to mean
values for all hourly S02 predictions is 0.93; for 6-hour predic-
tions it is 0.64; and.for 24-hour predictions is 0.43. Over 66%
of the 24-hour values are within 0.05 ppm of observed values and
90% are within 0.1 ppm of the actual.
A-15 URBAN AIR POLLUTION MODELING, Gifford, F. A. Jr and Hanna, S. R.,
Proc. 2nd International Clean Air Congress, Academic Press, New
York and London, 1971, pp. 1146-1151.
A simple area-source model of urban air pollution is presented.
Isolated point sources such as tall stacks are considered separately
and the contribution of lesser sources of all types is lumped into
a spatially variable area-source concentration. Test results shows
that the model produces ground level concentration values comparable
to those from other, more complex models.
A-16 APPLICATION OF A MULTI-SOURCE SYSTEM TO AN URBAN STUDY. Smith,
M. E. and Singer, I. A., Proc. 2nd International Clean Air Congress,
Academic Press, New York and London, 1971, pp. 1143-1146.
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A sophisticated model of atmospheric dispersion from a point
source has been used with considerable success in treating a number
of single-source diffusion problems. It has also been adapted
for use with multiple point sources, such as a group of stacks,
or a combination of stacks and ground-level release points. The
important attributes of the model are reviewed and its application
to the prediction of S02 concentrations in the city of New Haven,
Conn., is summarized.
A-17 COMPUTER CONTROL SYSTEM FOR PREVENTING AIR POLLUTION. Preprint,
International Union of Air Pollution Prevention Associations,
52p., 1970, 15 refs. (Presented at the International Clean Air
Congress, 2nd, Washington, D.C., Dec. 6-11, 1970, Paper ME-32B).
T. Takamatsu, M. Naito, M. Hiraoka, Y. Ikeda, and K. Kawata.
The authority of Osaka Prefecture in Japan has installed an
on-line aerometric system for the rapid assessment of the current
air quality and meteorological conditions throughout the area.
The feed-forward control has become possible by using the network
system. The mathematical background for the control system in
Osaka is developed. The final control system consists of three
major aspects: the development of an appropriate mathematical
model for an urban air quality prediction; parameter estimation
contained in the mathematical model; and establishment of a control
policy. The pollution level in urban areas is produced by many
sources distributed at random over the area, and moreover, regional
characteristics are so complex that a new dispersion model is
established combining a steady-state horizontal transfer equation
of pollutant and an unsteady linear differential equation. These
equations include several parameters which are governed by meteoro-
logical variables. The rationality of the mathematical model has
been proved by analyzing the behavior of the parameters due to the
meteorological condition by some off-line simulations. It will
not be adequate to estimate parameters deterministically, because
some meteorological variables are unmeasurable and even the
measurable variables still contain great uncertainty. Therefore,
two mathematical methodologies which may be effective for predict-
ing future pollution level are employed; one is the principle of
adaptive control by parameter modification on an assumption that
present relations between atmospheric conditions and parameters
will continue in future, and the other is the Kalman's filtering
technique which is inferred from the knowledge previously observed
in regard to the value of present signal and which can be effec-
tively applied to a prediction problem.
A-18 CHICAGO AIR POLLUTION SYSTEMS MODEL. Carson, J.E., Argonne National
Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois.
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A numerical model to simulate and forecast S02 pollutant con-
centrations in Chicago from source emission and meteorological data
and forecasts is being developed under a joint contract with the
Department of Environmental Control, City of Chicago, and the
National Air Pollution Control Administration. A secondary objec-
tive of the study is to develop and test effective and economic
pollution abatement techniques, using the SC>2 diffusion model
as a component. The Meteorology Group has participated in the
program by supplying meteorological data and advice, identifying
and analyzing meteorological conditions causing high pollution levels,
operating experimental programs to measure diffusion parameters
and dispersion rates, and developing a receptor-oriented urban
pollution model.
This summer, an extensive series of diffusion experiments
will be made in Chicago, using SFg as the tracer. The analyti-
cal studies will be continued.
Results: The numerical prediction model has been developed
and is being verified. Three pollution abatement exercises, the
fuel-switch tests, have been conducted in the City of Chicago.
Chemical analysis procedures for SFg have been developed; a
sensitivity of 0.5 parts per trillion parts of air has been
ahcieved. The Tabulation Prediction Scheme, a receptor-oriented
urban model, has been completed. Numerous helicopter surveys
have been made. Several published reports and papers presented
at scientific meetings have been generated by the Meteorology
Group.
A-19 NUMERICAL MODEL OF THE URBAN ATMOSPHERE. Myrup, L.O., University
of California, School of Agriculture, Davis, California.
We intend to formulate a working numerical model of the
processes by which pollution, heat and moisture change above a
city. These processes include the emission, transport, turbulent
diffusion, and removal of air pollution; radiational, advective and
turbulent transfer of heat: evaporation, condensation and advec-
tive and turbulent transfer of water vapor. The initial effort
will be directed towards to clear-skies, summertime situation.
The model will be tested against measurements to be made,
as part of the project, in the Sacramento Valley of California.
In particular, verification data will be obtained for a volume of
air above the city of Sacramento and a representative upwind rural
site.
We shall investigate the feasibility of operational use of the
model in routine meso-scale meteorological and air pollution
forecasting. We intend to work in close cooperation with the
Sacramento office of the U.S. Weather Bureau for this purpose,
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A-20 A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER OVER AN URBAN
HEAT ISLAND WITH APPLICATIONS TO NEW YORK CITY. Leahey, D.M. and
Friend, J.P., J. Appl. Meteorol., 10(6):1162-1173, Dec. 1971,
APTIC No. 38214.
Within the mixing layer over a city, pollutants tend to be
homogeneously distributed in the vertical, and a means of pre-
dicting the depth of the mising layer is therefore important for
air pollution predictions. A simple advective thermodynamic model
was used to predict to depth of this layer over the New York
urban area for five early morning periods which were characterized
by synoptic-scale inversions. In the model, the wind was assumed
constant in time and space and the lapse rate within the mixing
layer assumed to be adiabatic. The addition of two heat-sink
terms to the model reduce the artificial heat available to the
air and allow one to consider the effects of cooling downwind of
an urban area. Their magnitude in this study was about 30% of
the magnitude of the artificial heat release in New York City region.
Correlation coefficients between observed and predicted mixing
depths for the five non-summer mornings were about 0.86. The in-
tensity of inversions upwind of a city greatly influence the depth
of the mixing layer.
A-21 ON SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS USED IN AIR POLLUTION STUDIES.
Francesco Pisani, Text in Italian. Termotecnica (Milan),
25(12):634-642, Dec. 1971. 28 refs. (Presented at the National
ATI Congress, 25th, Trieste, Sept. 1970), APTIC No. 38530.
Knowledge of air pollution dynamics may provide means for its
abatement at various levels including simple forecasting of
specific air pollution conditions up to planning of urban develop-
ment. The main features of mathematical modeling applied in
mathematical aspects, their application to empirical data, and
the use of computers in the processing of mathematical data is given
Discrepancies between theory and practice and specific diffusion
models for large areas, derived from the generalized Gaussian
diffusion equation are discussed. Included are critical analyses
of the Miller-Holzworth, Clarke, Jacksonville, Washington Boston,
and simplified Johnston models. Best results can be obtained
with models generated by association of theoretical assumptions
with their adaptation to experimental data.
A-22 A PRACTICAL MULTIPURPOSE URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL FOR CARBON MONOXIDE,
FINAL REPORT. Ludwig, F.L., et.al., Coordinating Research Council
Contract CAPA-3-68, National Air Pollution Control Administration
Contract CPA 22-69-64, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park,
California, 184 pp., National Technical Information Service No.
PB 196003, 1970.
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This paper reports our progress in the development of essen-
tially two different types of diffusion models for carbon monoxide
(CO): (1) a "synoptic" model, which calculates hour-to-hour
concentrations, for vertification studies and possible operational
use, and (2) a "climatological" model, which calculates arithmetic
mean concentrations and frequencies of extreme concentrations, for
planning use. The design of these two models, as well as the results
of limited evaluation trials of an early version of the synoptic
model are described.
A-23 TIME-SPACE MODEL FOR 803. Fortak, H. G., Proceedings of Symposium
of Multiple-Source Urban Diffusion Models, Publication No. AP-86,
1970, pp. 9-1 through 9-34.
A multiple-source diffusion model for the simulation and
prediction of long-term (climatological) ground-level sulfur
dioxide concentrations in urban areas is described. The computer
input consists of data from an emission source inventory together
with statistics on relevant diffusion parameters.
A-24 PHYSICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL BASIS FOR MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF URBAN
DIFFUSION PROCESSES, Lettan, H.H., Proceedings of Symposium on
Multiple-Source Urban Diffusion Models, Publication AP-86, 1970,
pp. 2-1 through 2-26.
Diffusion processes in the volume of air above a geographical
area can be described in spatial detail with two- and three-dimen-
sional vector models drawn from boundary layer and fluid dynamics
concepts. A simpler scalar model, in particular, can directly
account for temporal trends in average pollutant levels due to
simultaneous diffusion of mass, energy, and momentum from multiple
sources.
By an application of climatonomy, the qualitative box model
of scalar diffusion is expanded quantitatively with fluid dynamic
equations. The theoretical model has been applied to prediction
of both long- and short-range, thermal and particulate pollutant
trends in large and small cities. The use of the box model to
evaluate aerodynamic momentum drain over the built-up area of a
city is also described. City types are specified in terms of
their micrometeorological experiments. Knowing only the horizontal
pressure gradient in the lower troposphere the model makes it
possible to estimate the characteristic wind speed for a specific
city type.
A-25 AN URBAN CIRCULATION MODEL. Bach, W., Arch. Met. Geoph. Biokl.,
Series B. 18:155-168, 1970.
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A-26 SOME MISCELLANEOUS ASPECTS OF CURRENT URBAN POLLUTION MODELS,
Calder, Kenneth L., Proceedings of Symposium on Multiple-Source
Urban Diffusion Models, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Air
Pollution Control Office, Pub. No. AP-86, 1970.
A-27 A CLIMATOLOGICAL MODEL FOR MULTIPLE SOURCE URBAN AIR POLLUTION,
Calder, Kenneth L., Proceedings 2nd Meeting of the Expert Panel
on Air Pollution Modeling, NATO Committee on the Challenges of
Modern Society, Paris, France, July 1971.
A-28 A SIMPLE DIFFUSION MODEL FOR CALCULATING POINT CONCENTRATIONS
FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES, Clarke, J. F., J. Air Pollution Control
Assn., Vol. 14, 1964, 347-352.
A-29 A PRACTICAL METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE DISPERSAL OF ATMOSPHERIC
CONTAMINANTS, Cramer, H. E., Proceedings of 1st National Conference
on Applied Meteorology, American Meteorological Society, Hartford,
Connecticut, 1957, pp. C33-C55.
A-30 A SIMPLE METHOD OF CALCULATING DISPERSION FROM URBAN AREA SOURCES.
Hanna, Steven R., 1971, J. Air Pollution Contr. Assoc,, 21, 12,
774-777.
A-31 A STUDY OF THE DIFFUSION OF AEROSOLS RELEASED FROM AERIAL LINE
SOURCES UPWIND OF AN URBAN COMPLEX, Hilst, G.R., and Bowne, N.E.,
Final Report, IV 025001A 128, Travelers Research Center, Inc.
Hartford, Connecticut (1966).
A-32 SENSITIVITIES OF AIR QUALITY PREDICTION TO INPUT ERRORS AND
UNCERTAINTIES, Hilst, Glenn R., Proceedings on Multiple-Source
Urban Diffusion Models, Editor: Arthur C. Stern, U.S.-Environmental
Protection Agency, Air Pollution Control, Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina, 1970, pp. 8-1 to 8-40.
A-33 AN AIR POLLUTION MODEL OF LOS ANGELES. Lamb, R., Master's thesis,
UCLA, 1968, 104 pp.
A-34 DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTIBOX AIR POLLUTION MODEL AND INITIAL VERIFI-
CATION FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. MacCracken, M.C., et.al.,
presented to 52nd Annual Meeting of American Meteorological
Society, January 10-13, New Orleans, Louisiana, 1970.
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A-35 AN URBAN DIFFUSION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING LONG TERM AVERAGE VALUES
OF AIR QUALITY, Martin, D. 0., J. Air Pollution Control Assn.,
21, 1, 16-19, 1971.
A-36 A GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC DIFFUSION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS
OF AIR QUALITY OF ONE OR MORE SOURCES, Martin, Delance 0., APCA
Paper 68-148, Presented at 61st Annual APCA Meeting, St. Paul,
Minn., June 1968.
A-37 AN ATMOSPHERIC DIFFUSION MODEL FOR METROPOLITAN AREAS, Miller,
M. E. and Holzworth, G. C., J. Air Pollution Control Assn.,
Vol. 17, 1967, 46-50.
A-38 MATHEMATICAL URBAN AIR POLLUTION MODELS, Moses, H., ANL/ES-RPY-001,
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, 1969.
A-39 PREDICTION BY NUMERICAL MODELS OF TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION IN AN
URBAN BOUNDARY LAYER, FINAL REPORT. Pandolfo, J.P., et.al.,
Contract CPA 70-62, Environmental Protection Agency, by The Center
for the Environment and Man, Inc., Hartford, Connecticut, 1971.
A-40 A PREDICTION MODEL OF MEAN URBAN POLLUTION FOR USE WITH STANDARD
WIND ROSES, Pooler, F., Int. J. Air and Water Pollution, Vol. 4,
1961, 199-211.
A-41 POTENTIAL DISPERSION OF PLUMES FROM LARGE POWER PLANTS. Pooler, F.,
Environmental Health Series, U.S.P.H.S. No. 999-AP-16, 1965 .
A-42 PROCEEDINGS OF THE SYMPOSIUM ON MULTIPLE-SOURCE URBAN DIFFUSION
MODELS. Sponsored by National Air Pollution Control Administra-
tion and the North Carolina Consortium on Air Pollution, October
27-30, 1969, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 1970.
A-43 NUMERICAL COMPARISON OF VARIOUS MODEL REPRESENTATIONS FOR A
CONTINUOUS AREA SOURCE. Shieh, L. J., and Halpern, P. K.,
G320-3293, IBM Scientific Center, Palo Alto, California, 1971.
A-44 A NEW APPROACH: THE GRID MODEL OF URBAN AIR POLLUTION. Sklarew,
R. C., APCA Paper 70-79, Systems, Science and Software, La Jolla,
California, 1970.
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A-45 A DIFFUSION MODEL FOR AN URBAN AREA. Turner, D. B., J. Applied Met.,
Vol. 3, 1964 , 83-91.
A-46 SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF MODELING FROM THE AIR POLLUTION STUDY
OF ANKARA, TURKEY, Zimmerman, J. R., Proceedings 2nd Meeting of
the Expert Panel on Air Pollution Modeling, NATO Committee on
the Challenges of Modern Society, Paris, France, July 1971.
Photochemical Pollutants
A-47 DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING GROUND LEVEL
CONCENTRATIONS OF PHOTOCHEMICAL POLLUTANTS. Roth, P. M.,
Reynolds, S. D., Roberts, P. J. W., Seinfeld, J. H., U. S. National
Technical Information Service. Government Reports Announcements,
72(7): 137, April 10, 1972.
The development and validation of a simulation model for
estimating ground level concentrations of photochemical pollutants
is described. This model is based on the finite difference solution
of the equations of conservation of mass, using the method of
fractional steps. The bulk of the effort is developmental, involving
the compilation of a comprehensive source emissions inventory, the
development and validation of a kinetic mechanism for photochemical
reactions, the adaptation of the method of fractional steps for use
in the solution of the governing equations and the preparation of
maps displaying spatial and temporal variations in wind speed and
direction aitd in the height of the inversion base. Validation efforts
have thus far been restricted to carbon monoxide. Provisional
validation results for the Los Angeles Basin are presented.
A-48 MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF PHOTOCHEMICAL SMOG, Eschenroeder, A. Q.
and Martinex, J. R., General Research Corp., Santa Barbara,
California, IMR 1210, 1969.
Air Quality
A-49 AQUIP - AIR QUALITY EVALUATION SYSTEM FOR THE PLANNING COMMUNITY.
Willis, B. H., Gaut, N. E., and Newman, E. Preprint, Air Pollution
Control Assoc., Pittsburgh, Pa. 1971. (Presented at the Air Pollution
Control Association, Annual Meeting, 64th, Atlantic City, N.J., June
27 - July 2, 1971, Paper 71-142). APTIC NO. 31597.
A system of computer model and methodologies being developed to
provide members of the planning community with a capability to eval-
uate the impact of alternative land-use plans on ambient quality
levels was described. The computer models and methodologies are now
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being applied to the New Jersey Hackensack Meadowlands District
comprehensive land use plans as a case-in-point study. The system,
called AQUIP, consists of computer models and methodologies for
converting input planning parameters directly into emission, computing
seasonal and annual average air quality data, generating overlay
maps to display air quality data, and computing plan evaluation
parameters to assist planners in the interpretation of air quality
data. New methodologies for projecting and calculating emissions data
based on planning data are described, and modifications which were
incorporated into the Martin-Tikvart advection-diffusion model to
permit greater accuracy and flexibility in the use of the model were
discussed.
A-50 LONG RANGE PLANNING IN AIR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT. Cohen, A.S., Croke,
E.J. Hurter, A., Norco, J.E. and Roberts, J.J., Argonne National Lab.,
111., Center for Environmental Studies; Chicago Dept. of Air Pollution
Control, 111.; Argonne National Lab., 111., Applied Programming
Group; Argonne National Lab., 111., Meteorology Group, Jan. 1971.
APTIC NO. 30056. NTIS: ANL/ES-CC-008
The Chicago Air Pollution Systems Analysis Program first went
through a long-range planning phase. Air resource management was
an integral part of the land-use planning; emission-density regulations
defined a maximum emission rate per land area unit for each land-use
classification, that is Ib/sq m-hr. Also, the land- use plans were
reflected in local zoning ordinances. A systematic statistical
procedure for conducting a zoning survey is presented, as well as the
results of a zoning survey conducted for the Chicago Metropolitan
Air Quality Control Region. A model for projecting and displaying
future air-pollution levels was formulated. This computerized package
included projection, climatology, and dispersion models. Annual and
seasonal projections of sulfur dioxide levels in Chicago were made
for the year 1980, assuming a 1.5% limit of sulfur is imposed for all
fuels used in Chicago. A computerized methodology for 12-to-24 hr
advance predictions of ambient S02 concentrations was developed for
coal and oil combustion in residential, commercial, and industrial
sources and power plants. Social, economic, and administrative factors
in the development of pollution control programs are discussed.
(Author abstract modified)
A-51 A CASE FOR SELECTIVE CONTROLS TO ACHIEVE AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
Krajeski, E.P. and Yeager, K.E., Nov. 1972, The MITRE Corporation,
M72-184.
This paper provides the idea that the projected imbalance between
the means needed to fulfill regulations which are designed to achieve
the national ambient air quality standard for sulfur oxide in 1975
and the availability to provide these means might be largely reduced
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by the use of selective controls. Data are provided which show that
emitters can be controlled at differing levels depending on their
characteristics and locations.
A-52 A STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLLUTANT EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY
SOURCES AND GROUND LEVEL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY. Krajeski, E.P.,
Keitz, E., and Bobo, D., May 1972, The MITRE Corporation, MTR-6158.
This report discusses an analysis of sulfur oxide and particulate
emission from stationary sources and ground level ambient air quality
contributions attributed to those sources. The data were those
generated by the Air Quality Display Model for the Metropolitan
New York, Metropolitan Philadelphia and Niagra Frontier Air Quality
Control Regions.
Land Use
A-53 A TRANSPORTATION STUDY FOR MONTGOMERY AND PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTIES
MARYLAND. Vorhees, A.M. and Associates, Inc. The Maryland National
Capital Park and Planning Commission, June 1970.
The effect of alternative land use plans, transportation net-
works, and operational characteristics in reducing air pollution
were also evaluated for Montgomery and Prince George's Counties in
Maryland. In order to quantify the effect of alternative land use
plans and highway networks on air pollution, a measure of the amount
of air pollutants generated by automobile travel associated with
each land use plan was required. Relationships were developed between
vehicle miles of travel, emissions of pollutants, and speed. On
the basis of curves relating emissions to auto speeds, air pollution
produced by the alternative plans was calculated based on congested
and average operating speeds.
A-54 A GUIDE FOR REDUCING AIR POLLUTION THROUGH URBAN PLANNING. Vorhees,
A.M. and Associates, Inc. and Ryckman, Edgerley, Tomlinson, and
Associates, prepared for the Office of Air Programs, EPA, Contract
No. CPA 70-100, December 1971.
Research activity in land use and transportation policies, as
they relate to air quality, is expanding. This guide summarizes
existing knowledge.
A-55 AIR POLLUTION AND OPTIMAL URBAN FORMS. Rydell, C.P. and Collins,. D.
National Center for Air Pollution Control, June 1967.
The potential impact which population density variations have
upon automobile pollution concentrations has been demonstrated in
a simulation study.
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A-56 PLANNING STANDARDS FOR APPLICATION WITH THE LAND USE ACTIVITY
ALLOCATION MODEL (LUAAH). Unknown, East West Gateway Coord. Coun.,
East Saint Louis, Illinois 62201.
In this analysis, the residential densities from the living
patterns study were translated into holding capacities for use in
the land use activity allocation model. The holding capacities
for the activity allocation model are the suggested minimum and
maximum number of people or employees which could be accommodated
in each zone. The development of the maximum and minimum holding
capacities and any necessary adjustments that were deemed desirable
were based upon local agency studies and knowledge of a particular
zonal area and its growth factors. Growth impact factors are concerned
with the effects on the physical environment such as existing parks,
vacant land, and developed areas. In an attempt to understand the
effects of growth on a zone, the analysis was concerned with the
general findings for the following items: (1) the good quality homes
and businesses that would be displaced by growth, (2) the land area
that would be required for new transportation facilities, (3) the
effects of heavy traffic on existing buisness districts (4) by-
products of growth such as pollution and noise, (5) the maintenance
of basic neighborhood integrity within a zone. The results of the
previously mentioned studies were the maximum acreage, density,
number of employees, and population for each zone.
A-57 AIR POLLUTION-LAND USE PLANNING PROJECT PHASE I (FINAL REPORT).
Kennedy, A.S., Cohen, A.S., Croke, E.J., Croke, K.G., Stork, J.,
and Hurter, A.P. Argonne National Lab., 111., Center for Environ-
mental Studies, and Northwestern Univ., Evanston, 111., Dept. of
Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Office of Air
Programs Contract, 153p., Nov. 1971, APTIC No. 40226.
Methods and procedures used to assess the air pollution poten-
tial of land-use plans are examined with respect to a land-use
computer submodule of the Air Quality Display Model System. The
submodule was tested using data from the Chicago Air Quality Control
Region and a procedure for evaluating land-use-based emission density
regulations was provided based on zoning land use ot economic activity.
Tables correlating zoning class, i.e., heavy or light industrial,
residential, or commercial areas, with sulfur dioxide emissions are
presented. Total emissions also included calculations of particulate,
nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbon, and carbon monoxide measurements.
Techniques for projecting land-use-based emission inventories with
the dispersion model are examined. The development of land-use-based
air pollution control policies, through point source controls,
emission density regulations, zoning, or governmental inducement, and
the administrative mechanisms of locational air pollution control
policies, including taxations, subsidization, public investment, or
direct control are discussed. Computer programs, mapping details,
and techniques for applying the plan to actual conditions are included.
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Transportation Pollution
A-58 FREE TRANSIT. Domencich, R.A., and Kraft, G. D.C. Heath and
Co., Lexington, Mass., 1970.
The effect that transit operating policies have on the demand for
auto trips is fundamental in any effort to reduce auto travel through
transit improvement. One of the most ambitious efforts to identify
the relationship between transit and auto demand was a study performed
for the U.S. Department of Transportation, using data from the Boston
Metropolitan area. Based on origin-destination data collected in
1963-1964, an econometric model of urban passenger travel demands
was developed using constrained multiple regression techniques. The
model measured the relationship between the number of trips by
purpose and mode and the socio-economic and land use variables
that give rise to travel demand. The major quantitative outputs
of the study were demand elasticities and cross-elasticities by
mode and trip purpose.
A-59 HIWAY, EPA. National Environmental Research Center, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina.
In the HIWAY program, air pollution from highway traffic is
considered to be represented by a series of line sources (one line
source for each lane of traffic)..
Downwind relative concentration (concentration normalized for
emission rate) is determined integrating the relative concentration
from point sources spaced at equal intervals between the line end
points. It is assumed that the concentration from these point sources
is binomial (Gaussian) in a plane perpendicular to the wind direction.
This model cannot consider complex terrain, but is applicable
to situations where uniform wind conditions pervail. Thus it is
best suited for computing air concentrations downwind of at-grade
highways on level terrain. An estimate of concentration downwind of
a depressed highway (cut section) can also be obtained.
A-60 HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATION. Voorhees, A.M. and Associates, Inc., and
Ryckman, Edgerley, Tomlinson & Associates, based upon research
findings from: Bellomo, S.J., Dial, R.B., and Voorhees, A.M.
Factors, Trends and Guidelines Related to Trip Length, National
Cooperative Highway Research Program Report 89, 1970.
The simulation was conducted to investigate the metropolitan
significance of transportation mode choice and urban development for
pollution reduction. Travel patterns were simulated for a hypothetical
625 square mile metropolitan area of two and one-half million people
under varying assumptions about urban patterns, highway networks, and
transit networks.
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A-61 THE EFFECT OF LAND USE PLANNING AND TRANSPORT PRICING POLICIES
IN EXPRESS TRANSIT PLANNING. Golenberg, M. , and Keith, R., Highway
Research Record No. 305, 1970.
In Canberra, Australia, a theoretical simulation study showed
that increased parking costs would reduce vehicular travel by
increasing car occupancy and transit usage.
A-62 PROCESS EVALUATION SYSTEM DEVELOPED FOR THE EMISSION INVENTORY.
Loquercio, P., Dammkoehler, A.R., and Goldberg, R., J^ Air Poll.
Control Assoc., 17, (March 1967), 168-171.
A-63 NATIONWIDE INVENTORY OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS, 1968. DHEW, U.S,
Public Health Service, NAPCA Publication AP-73, August 1970.
A-64 1967: WORKBOOK ON ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION ESTIMATES. Turner, D.B.,
National Air Pollution Control Administration, Cincinnati, Ohio,
PHS Pub. No. 999-AP-26, 84p.
A-65 UPDATE NAPCA DATA FILE OF NATION-WIDE EMISSIONS. Hoffman, A., U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Air Pollution Control Office,
Durham, North Carolina.
Objective: to provide current information on nation-wide
emissions of the major air pollutants.
Approach: compile statistics on motor vehicle travel, fuel
consumption, refuse disposal, industrial activity, and other indica-
tors of pollutant emissions such as degree of control. Using
average emission factors, calculate emissions of SOX, particulates,
CO, HC, NOx, Pb, F, asbestos, cadmium, and nickel.
Goal: Re-issue "NAPCA Data File of Nation-wide Emissions"
publication for 1969.
A-66 DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN AN INFORMATION SYSTEM ON NATION-WIDE EMISSIONS
FROM GASOLINE FUEL ADDITIVES. Smith, J., U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Air Pollution Control Office, Durham, North
Carolina.
Objective: to provide information on nation-wide emissions
from gasoline fuel additives.
Approach: through contract with gasoline manufacturers, and
various taxation agencies, collect information on gasoline sales,
and combine this data with additive concentrations which are supplied
to DA under the registration program, to yield information on nation-
wide emissions of the various chemicals. This activity also entails
development of computer procedures for systematic data handling,
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Goal: produce first report on estimated quantities of pollu-
tants released as a result of using gasoline fuel additives.
A-67 ENGINEERING COMPUTATION AND FORECASTING. Hemphill, M.W., U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Air Pollution Control Office,
Durham, North Carolina.
Objective: Initiate and continue and/or complete task orders
in support of the Division's R&D program.
Description: This in-house service provides consultation in
the fields of statistics, mathematics, computer technology and
emissions forecasting. Principal applications of statistics include
the design of experiments and anlaysis of data. Mathematical
applications include the solution of differential equations and the
development/evaluation of mathematical representations of process
phenomena. Applications of computer technology provide support
to mathematical and statistical computation as well as the storage
and retrieval of data to facilitate forecasting.
The prediction of the quantity of pollutants, the degree of
control and the cost of this control comes under forecasting. To
form the basic forecasts and reconcile differences between reference
data and other forecasts, it is necessary to construct and access
inventories of emissions, sources of emissions, fuel consumption,
control of emissions and related cost data.
A-68 A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING AND GRAPHICALLY COMPARING THE AMOUNTS OF
AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS, ATTRIBUTABLE TO AUTOMOBILES, BUSES, COMMUTER
TRAINS, AND RAIL TRANSIT. Scheel, J.W., Preprint, Society of
Automotive Engineers, Inc., New York. 12p., 1972 (Presented at the
Automotive Engineering Congress, Detroit, Mich., Jan. 10-14, 1972.
Paper 720166).
An analytical method is described for estimating and graphically
comparing the amounts of mass emissions from automobiles, buses,
commuter trains, and rail transit given the emission characteristics
of each type of vehicle. Emissions considered include carbon mon-
oxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide. These
mass emissions are expressed in grams per person mile as well as
grams per vehicle mile in order to consider their quantity based on
the movement of people as well as on the movement of vehicles. The
relative effects of these pollutants are also presented. Informa-
tion from this method can be used to estimate the quantity of
emissions produced in a specific area given the travel characteristics
of that area. Changes in the amount of emissions resulting from
persons who change their mode of travel can also be estimated.
Application of this method for a given region can help local
officials estimate the effects of various transportation policies
on the regional transportation related pollution.
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Model Validity
A-69 TESTS OF WIND TUNNEL AND MATHEMATICAL AIR POLLUTION MODELS IN A
ROUGH TERRAIN SITUATION. Lukey, M.E., Preprint, Air Pollution
Control Assoc., Pittsburgh, Pa. 91p., 1969. 27 refs. (Presented
at the Air Pollution Control Association Annual Meeting, 63rd, St.
Louis, Mo., June 14-18, 1970, Paper 70-17).
The validity of present diffusion models for predicting sulfur
dioxide concentrations near a large emission source (power station)
in rough terrain was determined based on plant operating character-
istics, S02 concentration, and meteorological factors. The New
York University wind tunnel model to predict the dispersion of
effluents from two stacks of the proposed plant was examined.
Wind speed and direction, sampling distance, stack height, plant
load, gas exit velocity and temperature, turbulence index, solar
radiation, cloud formations, altitudes, and plume behavior were
important factors for correlation with S02 diffusion and topographic
interactions. The Gifford and Gifford Turner mathematical models
did not provide suitable predictions in the higher concentrations;
50% of the 1969 data was within 0.10 ppm of the mathematical
predictions. The wind tunnel study predicted zero concentrations
at speeds below 7.4 miles/hour; however, several high readings at
such wind speeds with the same wind direction were obtained. The
data determined significant S02 even higher than 0.20 ppm from the
power plant in the summer. The models were therefore proven
unsuitable for narrow predictions of S02 concentrations in the area.
A-70 SOME MISCELLANEOUS ASPECTS OF CURRENT URBAN POLLUTION MODELS.
Calder, K.L., Proceedings of Symposium on Multiple Source Urban
Diffusion Models, Air Pollution Control Office Publication AP-86,
1970, pp. 4-1 - 4-13.
The basic structure of many current urban pollution models is
examined from the point of view of underlying assumptions and
physical basis. Initial attempts to extend steady-state models to
variable conditions and long-term predictions are indicated, with
a brief discussion of stochastic simulation of the concentration
patterns and average seasonal and annual distributions. In view
of the complexity of most computer-oriented models, a sensitivity
analysis is recommended to identify the input parameters that most
critically affect the concentration predictions.
Indices
A-71 NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES: AIR QUALITY AND OUTDOOR RECREATION,
Bisselle, C.A., Lubore, S.H., Pikul, R.P., April 1972, The MITRE
Corporation, MTR-6159.
Separate indices of Air Pollution and Outdoor Recreation have
been formulated and computed for a number of cities in the United
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States. Guidelines for implementation of an operational data collec-
tion and reporting system to allow routine computation of these
indices are also contained in this report. The results have been
prepared by The MITRE Corporation for selected use by the Council
on Environmental Quality in preparing its third Annual Report on
Environmental Quality.
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WATER
Regional Planning for River Basins
W-l THE RIVER BASIN MODEL: AN OVERVIEW. Environmentrics, Inc.,
Environmental Protection Agency, Water Pollution Control Research
Series, Washington, D. C., December 1971.
The River Basin Model is a man-machine simulation model, used
primarily to replicate the interactions taking place, within a real
or hypothetical area, between the local water system and the full
range of economic, social, and governmental activities of that
area. It is a water resource model representing supply of, demand
for, and quality of water, but it is also a labor market model,
a land use and assessment model, and several more; it is a model
of an entire regional system with water a subsystem realistically
interacting with all the other major subsystems; the output from
the operating programs of the computer package illustrate the
impact that the water system has on such phenomena as housing
selection, employment, and government budgetary activity. Model
users are given control over all the resources of the local area
being represented. Most of the local, business and population use
municipally supplied water which must be drawn from the local
water system and treated if necessary. The model users may make
a wide range of private and public policy decisions which affect
the simulations for each of the above phenomena, and which impact
the environmental quality of the represented area.
W-2 PROGRESS REPORT ON A DYNAMIC MODEL OF THE ECONOMY OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN, Hamilton, H. R., Goldston, S. E.,
Sweet, D. C., Kamrany, N. M., and Schultz, R. D. Susquehanna
River Basin Utility Group, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus,
Ohio, November 1964.
The report outlined the progress made in the Phase II of the
overall research effort toward the development of a dynamic,
mathematical model of the economy of the Susquehanna River Basin.
Phase I had investigated the feasibility of building a dynamic
model. Phase II was directed primarily toward analyzing and tying
together factors judged to have significant impact on the growth
of the economy of the Basin. The dynamic model was adopted for
computer simulation used to make projections of the economy of
the Study Area until the year 2010. To estimate the economic
impact of constructing alternative sets of river works in the
Basin, a "Moderate" and an "Elaborate" set of works were hypo-
thesized and the economic consequences simulated by the model. It
was concluded that water was not a constraint upon the growth of
the economy of the Susquehanna River Basin.
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W-3 MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF THE YAKIMA RIVER BASIN.
Washington State Research Center, Pullman, Progress Report, 1970.
Various new and previously existing models were adapted to the
Yakima River Basin. A dynamic flow model was designed for the IBM
system 360-67 computer to generate streamflow rate, and compute
associated flow depth, velocity and stream surface area. A water
quality model of the Snohomish River was adapted to simulate water
quality, responses to several parametric changes including economic
growth rate, treatment plant policies, stream waste water discharge
locations, temperature and salinity. Basic descriptive information
on present irrigations in the Yakima Valley was collected and a model
was employed to estimate diversions, return flows and consumptive
use on the Kittitas Valley. A stream survey was undertaken and a
model for estimating required low flows to support fishery was
developed to determine first round estimates of minimum flows at
key points. To generate in-flows for the 5 major reservoirs and
the major ungaged streams of the basin, a hydrologic model was
completed. A descriptive, economic input-output model was developed
for the Basin economy and was extended to form a functional,
predictive model. The various computer models were compared and
integrated by a central computer "service."
W-4 REGIONAL TRADE AND STRUCTURE MODEL FOR POLLUTION ABATEMENT STUDY,
Stillson, R. T. Columbus Dept. of Economics, Ohio State Univer-
sity. In: Systems Analysis for Great Lakes Water Resources,
October 1969, p. 75-89.
Outlines of a regional trade model useful in determining
the likely economic impact of various proposed pollution abate-
ment programs for the Western Basin of Lake Erie were presented.
The model was designed to analyze the likely economic impact of
implementation of "The Lake Erie Report: A Plan for Water Pollu-
tion Control" which proposed several abatement programs including
construction for sewers, secondary and tertiary treatment facilities
of municipal waste and enforcement of a high standard of industrial
treatment facilities. Interregional activity analysis was broken
down for each region into: (1) Production of final products,
(2) Production of intermediate products, and (3) Shipment of
every commodity from each region. A sample input-output matrix
of such activities was shown. This activity analysis was used
to formulate a programming model to allocate given resources
among activities. The variable maximized was the gross return
to regional resources and to shipping. The four constraints on
the activity levels were: (1) Material balances, (2) Final resource
constraints, (3) Capacity constraints, and (4) Non-negativity
constraints. The model was used to simulate short run impact of
abatement programs with four major effects on a regional economy:
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X**
(1) Taxation effect, (2) Water input effect, (3) Industrial
Control Effect, and (4) Abatement as a user of resources. The
model was to be simulated for the Detroit-Toledo area using input-
output coefficients for 1963.
W-5 AN INTERINDUSTRY FORECASTING MODEL WITH WATER QUANTITY AND QUALITY
CONSTRAINTS, Miernyk, W. West Virginia University, Morgantown,
Department of Economics. In: Systems Analysis for Great Lakes
Water Research, October 1969, p. 49-58.
A method used to make long-range projections of economic
activity in the Colorado River Basin with water quantity and
quality constraints was described. Six sets of projections were
made, one for each sub-basin of the Colorado River Basin, with
1980 and 2010 as the target years. The forecasting model was
the conventional open Leontief input-output model with changing
input coefficients. Separate transaction tables were constructed
for each of the six sub-basins, with 1960 as the base year.
Non-agricultural and agricultural data were collected and linked
together by balancing import rows and export columns, the result
being a "pure" interregional interindustry model. A flow diagram
of the computational procedures, which involved eleven steps for
input-output projections, was shown. Two sets of projections were
completed, one for water quality only and the other involving
both quantity and quality constraints. Three general illustrative
cases, for agricultural sectors, commercial and industrial users,
and municipal users, were sketched, in order to measure damages
due to water quality degradation, total gross output as given by
the quantity constrained projections, minus total gross output
in the quality-constrained projections was used.
W-6 UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER COMPREHENSIVE BASIN STUDY, APPENDIX P,
VOLUME VIII, ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND PROJECTIONS, 1970. Corps
of Engineers, North Central Division, Chicago, Illinois.
As one of the nine appendices to a comprehensive study of
the Upper Mississippi River Basin, this report develops the
necessary information regarding future economic and demographic
changes in the Basin to serve as a guide in projecting future
water requirements and developing a water resource plan. Trends
and projections of these changes are developed for the Nation,
Multistate Region, the Basin, Economic Subregions and Plan Areas,
accompanied by an analysis of their interrelationships. Four
economic parameters serve as the basis for these projections:
population (farm versus non-farm), employment (for major industry
groups), production (in agriculture, minerals, forestry and
electric power), and personal income. Based on these criteria,
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it was concluded that the Upper Mississippi River Basin is expected
to continue to grow at a more rapid pace than its multistate area,
but slightly less than the national pace. The final section of
the report summarizes the approaches used in applying this informa-
tion to water resource planning by the study's many participants.
Water Quality
W-7 MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER QUALITY CHANGES IN A RIVER BASIN,
Novotny, Vladimir. Hydraulic Research Institute, Brno, Czechoslova-
kia, Fifth International Water Pollution Research Conference, San
Francisco, July 26-August 1, 1970, p. I-5/1-I-5/7.
Problems and design are discussed of a suitable mathematical
model which would apply for small and medium streams. Water
quality as related to non-conservative pollutants in steady state
and dynamic state were discussed and modeled. A river network was
divided into sections connected by junction and it was assumed
that self-purification processes took place in the sections while
waste effluent and tributaries were situated at junctions. The
input parameters included water temperature, length of section,
approximate function of dependence of detention time in section
on discharge, the dependence of average depth on discharge,
parameters of limiting concentrations of BOD, COD, etc. The
dynamic water quality model is. more time consuming and needs
greater computer storage capacity than the steady state model.
Observed data are in good agreement with the models.
W-8 MODELING OF WATER QUALITY BEHAVIOR IN AN ESTUARIAL ENVIRONMENT,
Corlob, G. T., Selleck, R., Shubinski, R. P., Walsh, F., Mann, E.
Selected Water Resource Abstracts, P70-04424, 1970.
Development and appraisal of alternative water quality
.management programs for complex estuarial environments can
be greatly facilitated by the use of mathematical models.
Simulation of estuarial behavior on high-speed digital com-
puters requires the correct functional representation in such
models of a host of environmental factors. Some of them are of
natural occurrence, such as runoff from tributary drainages, the
motion of tides, and utilization of the estuary by myriad forms
of life. Other influences are attributable to man's control over
his environment, his uses of water for agriculture and for muni-
cipal and industrial purposes, and his deliberate return of waste
products of his activities to the natural water resource. Research
and development efforts extending over more than five years of
the complex estuary of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers
have resulted in several specialized, mathematical models for
characterization of quality changes in such systems. The
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development of these models, which will be employed as essential
tools of the San Francisco Bay-Delta Water Quality Control
Study, is described in this paper and examples of their application
to specific problems are given.
W-9 SIMULATION OF WATER QUALITY IN STREAMS AND CANALS. Masch and
Associates, Austin Texas; for Texas Water Development, Austin.
Texas Water Development Board Report 128, Austin, May 1971.
The QUAL-1 mathematical modeling system presented is
designed to simulate water-quality parameters, and is one of
several simulation systems being developed by the Texas Water
Development Board to assist in more refined water planning and
management. The set of interrelated quality routing models
(QUAL-1) is useful for the prediction of the temporal and
spatial distribution of temperature, biochemical oxygen demand
and dissolved oxygen, and conservation minerals within a
segment of a river basin. The governing differential equation
is solved by an implicit-finite-difference technique under the
assumption that advection along the primary axis of flow (longi-
tudinal axis of the stream channel) is the primary mode of
transport. Comparison of the predictions of this modeling system
and field data from a segment of a river basin containing multiple
headwater sources, waste loadings, and branching streams produced
good agreement between predicted and observed quality profiles.
W-10 USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN WATER QUALITY CONTROL STUDIES,
Goodman, A. S. and Tucker, R. J. Northeastern University,
Boston, Massachusetts, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PB-189 293.
Mathematical models were utilized to study water pollution
control programs in a river basin. Sensitivity analyses, with
a steady state model, showed substantial variation of cost for
sewage treatment, depending upon stream purification parameter
selections. An unsteady state model was developed to trace a
time profile at any specified station in terms of flow and
quality as BOD, dissolved oxygen, coliforms, and chlorides while
upstream discharge, water temperature, and solar radiation vary.
A new empirical procedure was developed to route unsteady stream
flow. The time varying model was used to investigate the effective-
ness of treatment when the stream's assimilative capacity varies
with distance and time.
W-ll MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING FOR REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT,
Graves, G. W., Hatfield, G. B. and Whinston, A. B. Water
Resources Research, Vol. 8, No. 2, p. 273-290, April 1972.
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An application of mathematical programming to the problem of
optimal water quality control in an estuary is detailed. The
mathematical models allow for the possibilities of at-source
treatment, regions treatment plants, and by-pass piping. Actual
data from the Delaware Estuary are used to solve a large-scale
problem and the solution is given.
W-12 STREAM WATER QUALITY STANDARDS VOLUMES I AND II, Dougal, M. D. ,
Baumann, E. R., and Timmons, J. F. Iowa State University, Ames
Engineering Research Institute. Available from the Clearinghouse
as PB-191167 and from NTIS as PB-194551.
A comprehensive study is reported of water pollution control
and stream water quality as they relate to the establishment of
stream and effluent standards. The ability of Iowa streams to
assimilate organic wastes was determined on a state-wide basis,
with three hydrologic^water quality regions being identified:
ideal, good and poor. Quantitative values were assigned for low
flow discharges in each region. Preliminary results indicate that
the BOD loading in the streams must be limited to 10 - 15 mg/1
to maintain the established dissolved oxygen standard of 4 mg/1.
The physical characteristics of effluents from typical waste treat-
ment processes were determined and related to mathematical models
for BOD progression. A more refined BOD model was developed. A
case study of the Skunk River at Ames revealed the nature of the
response of an Iowa stream to discharge of effluents from a water
pollution control plant. A digital computer model was developed
for simulating, verifying and forecasting stream water quality.
The results indicate three major factors influence stream quality:
oxidation of the carnonaceous organic wastes contained in effluents,
nitrification of nitrogenous compounds, and the effect of nutrient
levels in causing a substantial algal response. The economic
value of water pollution control was evaluated for the City of
Ames. Present annual expenditures will double or triple in the
future depending on the desired level of stream water quality.
₯-13 NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF WATER QUALITY IN COASTAL WATERS AND
ESTUARIES, Leendertse, J. J. Rand Corporation, Santa Monica,
California. 1970 IEEE International Conference on Engineering
in the Ocean Environment, Panama City. Florida, September 21-
24, 1970, Digest of Technical Papers, p. 253-255.
Water quality management in coastal waters and estuaries
must assess the effects of fluid wastes entering these waters.
A model which computes the tidal flow and time-varying water levels
in well mixed estuaries and coastal waters where salinity
distributions at any point are uniform over the vertical was
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developed. The various composition of the fluid wastes can react
with each other or with substances in the water so a reaction model
was included. These reaction rates are influenced by water
temperature and solar radiation. Wind and waves affect the
exchange of gases at the water surface. Adjustment of the model
using field measurements was necessary to establish the functional
relationships.
W-14 RIVER BASIN QUALITY SIMULATION, White, W. A. and Tischler, L. F.
In: Proceedings of the 16th Annual Conference on Water for
Texas, "Urban Water Resources Planning and Management," San
Antonio, Texas, September 9-10, 1971, Texas Water Resources
Institute, p. 155-175.
The capability of routing a given water quality parameter
through a stream or canal system and estimating with reasonable
accuracy the waste-assimilative capacity of the system is
essential to any comprehensive water resources plan. The degree
of resolution required to determine the response of a stream or
canal system to any water quality management concept is a very
difficult problem. A stream is a conglomerate of complex bio-
logical, chemical, physical, and hydraulic factors. To determine
the combined effect of these various factors, mathematical models
capable of representing some of the more important interrelation-
ships between the variables have been developed. A mathematical
model of stream or canal system consists of a series of elements,
each corresponding to a discrete stream or canal segment, arranged
so that the output from one element becomes the input of the next.
The transfer function is determined by performing a mass balance
of a given water quality parameter over a time interval, on a
stream or canal segment of a cross sectional area and of given
lengths along the axis. The primary objective of this modeling
effort was to develop a set of inter-related water quality models
capable of routing the following water quality parameters through
a stream subsystem: (1) temperature, (2) biochemical oxygen
demand and dissolved oxygen, and (3) conservative minerals.
W-15 WATER QUALITY PREDICTION WITHIN AN INTERBASIN TRANSFER SYSTEM,
White, W. A., Tischler, L. F. and Austin, T. A. Water Resources
Bulletin, Vol. 8, No. 3, p. 483-494, June 1972.
A methodology for predicting the spatial and temporal
levels of conservative water quality constituents within a
multibasin water resource system is presented. Dissolved
solids, sulfates, and chlorides are the constituents used during
this investigation; however, any other conservative ion or
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mineral can be incorporated into the simulation model. The
methodology is tested on the proposed Texas Water System. The water
quality model, QNET-1, utilizes monthly canal and river flows and
reservoir storage levels calculated by the Texas Water Development
Board's systems simulation model. Discharge-concentration relation-
ships are developed for each source of water in the system, includ-
ing significant waste-water discharges. Reservoirs in the system
are assumed to be completely mixed with respect to conservative
constituents. A mass balance analysis is performed for each node
and each month during the simulation period. The output from the
water quality simulation is a table of the concentrations of
these conservative water quality constituents at each demand point
in the system and in each reservoir and canal for every month the
system is in operation. The desired quality of the water at the
demand locations is used to determine the economic utility of
transporting and mixing water from various sources.
W-16 A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR MARINE WASTE DISPOSAL, Aitsam, A.,
Tallin Polytechnik Institute, Scientific Research Laboratory
of Sanitary Technique, Estonian, SSR.
Usually engineering calculations relating to water quality
of a water resource receiving sewage discharges are based on
the deterministic mathematical model in which water quality is
discussed as a determined quantity. Actually it is well known
that water quality depends on a large number of simultaneously
acting factors (water flow, discharge of sewage, quantity of
pollutants in sewage, rate of turbulence in the water resource,
etc.) each of which in its turn depends on several causes.
Hence it would be more correct to discuss the water quality as
a stochastic varying quantity and to make use of stochastic
processes as a mathematical basis for the engineering calcula-
tions of the water quality. In this paper an attempt is made
to present the general scheme and basis for a stochastic model
for predicting water quality where sewage is discharged into
the marine environment.
W-17 MODELING SALINITY IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN, Hyatt, M. L.
EPA, National Field Investigations Center, Denver, Colorado.
The degradation of water quality in the Upper Colorado
River Basin by irrigation and industrial use is discussed, and
a computer simulation model describing salinity in the basin
is presented. Quality changes that might result from contemplated
development at a particular location within the river system are
included in the model.
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W-18 WATER QUALITY MODELING AND PREDICTION, Lee, E. S., Erickson, L. E.,
and Fan, L. T. Kansas Water Resources Research Institute,
Manhattan, Contribution No. 52, January 1971.
The recently developed modeling and forecasting techniques
such as quasilinearization and invariant imbedding are applied
to the modeling of water quality systems. Due to the fast conver-
gence rate and the sequential nature of the estimation scheme,
a large amount of computer time and computer memory can be saved.
Furthermore, these approaches form an effective forecasting
technique for the prediction of pollutant concentration. The
dispersion model with the consideration of axial mixing is used.
By properly adjusting the axial diffusion coefficient, the
dispersion model can represent streams with any degree of
mixing. A water stream with intermediate reservoirs, and with
waste discharges and water intakes along the stream, is repre-
sented by a system of second order differential equations. These
equations are obtained bv dividing the stream into different
segments. An analytical solution is obtained for this system
of equations to predict the BOD and DO concentrations. Based
on this model, simulation study is also carried out to investi-
gate the influence of the various parameters on the BOD and DO
profiles.
W-19 FORECASTING OF WATER QUALITY DATA IN THE DELAWARE RIVER ESTUARY,
MacEwen, P. K. and Tortorietto, R. C. Data and Instrumentation
for Water Quality Management, National Symposium Proceedings,
Kerrigan, J. E. (Editor). Held in Madison, Wisconsin, 21-23
July 1970.
Water quality data were collected for use with a mathema-
tical model of the Delaware Estuary for prediction of dissolved
oxygen levels in response to discharged waste loads. The
collected data were used to establish base water quality
conditions, to show changes in water quality and also to
determine with the model the assimilative capacity of the
Estuary and then establish carbonaceous removals in discharges.
The model also was used to evaluate effects of regionalization
in the Estuary and the extent of salt water intrusion. The
results show reliable predictions for dissolved oxygen levels
and that the model is responsive to changes in the magnitude
and location of waste loads.
W-20 HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF ASHLEY VALLEY, Wilson, R. F. Bureau of
Reclamation, Engineering and Research Center, Denver, Colorado,
1972.
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Protection of water quality by use of hycirologic modeling
is discussed, and a mathematical model for predicting the
mineral quality of irrigation, return flow water in the Ashley
Valley (Utah) is presented. The model incorporates the use of
deterministic and/or probabilistic inputs and demands and measures
the systems responses or yields for variable systems, operation
criteria and design features. A data analysis submodel designed
to measure the information content of all input is discussed,
along with a simulation model that allows many configurations
in the simulation of the whole water resource system by using
a nodal scheme.
W-21 AN EVOLUTIONARY RIVER MODEL VIA CONTINUOUS ON-LINE SYSTEM IDENTI-
FICATION, Mumme, K. I. In: A River as a Chemical Reactor,
Volume 3, Maine University Research Project Final Report, July
1971.
A river can be considered to be a chemical reactor. The
dissolved oxygen content of the water can be considered to be
either the reactor product (as a representation of water quality)
or as an excess reactant to be maximized. In order to control
such a reactor, a mathematical model was developed to predict
the dissolved oxygen "response" to a given biological oxygen
demand loading or "input." The model adapts itself to changing
conditions, thereby assuring that the model, at any point in
time, provides an acceptably accurate representation of the
actual BOD:DO relationship. The modelling system is not peculiar
to the river studied, the Penobscot estuary in Maine. It can
easily be transferred to other rivers. Actual tests indicate
that the model can predict the BOD:DO relationship to within
ten percent of the true relationship.
W-22 MODELING AND CONTROL OF THE POLLUTION OF WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS
VIA MULTILEVEL APPROACH, Haimes, Y. Y. Case Western Reserve
University, Cleveland, Ohio, Department of Systems Engineering.
Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 7, No. 1, p. 93-101, February 1971.
The problem of modeling and control of water pollution is
considered. A general mathematical model, where the pollution
effluent is discharged directly into the lake, or into a bypass
pipe leading to an advanced Waste Water Treatment plant is
developed. The Water resource system under consideration is
decomposed into N subsystems. The pollution effluent input
vector to each subsystem includes the water quantity and
different water characteristics such as BOD, DO, pH, conduc-
tivity, temperature, algae, phosphates, nitrates, etc. Treat-
ment cost functions and quality transition functions as well as
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system model constraints are introduced, where all functions
can be nonlinear. A system Lagrangian is formed to incorporate
the system constraints and coupling.
W-23 SIMULATION MODELING OF THERMAL EFFECTS ON SELECTED RIVER SYSTEMS,
Jaske, R. T. Battelle Memorial Institute, Richland, Washington.
This program consists of the application of digital simu-
lation program originally developed for the investigation and
prediction of Columbia River water quality, primarily temperature,
both above and below the. Hanford plant, to perform water quality
predictions associated with the erection or planning for nuclear
electrical generating facilities in critical major river basin
areas. These critical areas, or marketing regions would be
selected by the Division of RD&T in response to current licensing
needs and other predictions.
W-24 SIMULATION OF STREAM PROCESSES IN A MODEL RIVER, Padden, T. J.
and Floyna, E. F. Texas University, Austin, Center for Research
in Water Resources. Available from NTIS as PB-202-159. Texas
University Center for Research in Water Resources Technical
Report No. 2 (EHE-70-23, CRWR-72), May 1971.
Various stream processes which contribute to reoxygenation
or deoxygenation were studied separately under controlled
conditions in aquaria and in a research flume. Stream processes
were simulated as a model river consisting of benthos and photo-
synthetic organisms. In another channel, an identical ecosystem
was established and stressed with an organic pollutant. The
conditions established in these model rivers were those assumed
in the development of various sag equations. The stressed eco-
system behaved in accordance with sag equations proving the
validity of the classical predictive formulas and validity of
simulation of stream processes in the model river. A formula-
tion for atmospheric reaeration constants for flowing systems
as a function of velocity and depth was developed from data
obtained in the model river.
W-25 COMPUTER MODEL OF CONNECTICUT RIVER POLLUTION, Hoover, T. E.
and Arnoldi, R. A. Bibliograph Map, Journal of the Water
Pollution Control Federation, Vol. 42, p. 67-75, Part 2,
February 1970.
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W-26 PROGRAMMING APPLICATIONS TO THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF WATER
QUALITY CONTROL, Pingry, D. E. Ph.D. Thesis, Purdue University,
August 1971.
A critical review of mathematical programming models used
to select a least-cost pollution abatement program is presented
in part one of this four-part thesis. Using a general model as
a guide, the basin models are classified according to objective
functions, quality constraints, solution technique and treatment
alternatives. Proposals are made for future research priorities
after considering model limitations. A large-scale nonlinear
programming model in the second part improved on earlier models
by considering more treatment alternatives, e.g., regional
treatment plants, by-pass piping and flow augmentation, and by
using a nonlinear quality model. The details of the nonlinear
algorithm used are discussed. The model was applied to
Indiana's West Fork White River basin. The third paper presented
a new cost allocation scheme based on the incremental contribu-
tion of the individual polluter to the total basin cost and
applied the scheme both to the basin model in the second paper
and the West Fork White River. Heat pollution and its effect on
the dissolved oxygen level in a river was considered in the
final section. By using a temperature decay equation, the
Streeter-Phelps equations were modified and applied to the basin
planning model.
W-27 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF OPTIMAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT, Whinston, A.
Purdue University, Graduate School, Lafayette, Indiana.
The overall objective of the research proposal is the
further development of the methodology and techniques of economic
analysis as applied to water pollution. In particular, a
substantial part of the work will attempt to apply these tech-
niques to the White River.
The specific parts of the project may be listed as follows:
(1) The Development of steady state transfer functions for
parts of the White River, (2) The formulation of water quality
management models, (3) The development of mathematical tech-
niques to solve the water management problems, (4) A study of
the economics of a regional treatment system, and (5) An
extension of the model to the time variable case.
W-28 A MODEL OF PUBLIC DECISIONS ILLUSTRATED BY A WATER POLLUTION
POLICY PROBLEM, Dorfman, R. and Jacoby, H. D. In: The Analysis
and Evaluation of Public Expenditures; The PPB System, Sub-
committee on Economy in Government, Joint Economic Committee,
91st Congress, Washington, D. C., May 1969, p. 226-274.
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A mathematical model of a water pollution problem was
constructed to aid in the political decision-making process.
A hypothetical river basin was modelled to illustrate how a
problem of governmental decision making coule be expressed in
a formal model and analyzed fruitfully. There were a variety of
hydrologic technical, social, political, and economic issues
involved including conflicts of interest among the users of
the basin's water resources. The model provided a useful way
to manage the diverse kinds of data that were pertinent to
the problem. The solution of the model defined both aggregate
and individual user costs and benefits. It also provided a
way to coordinate fragmented data and to analyze the effects
of different assumptions that might reasonably be adopted.
W-29 SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION FOR RIVER BASIN WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT,
Shih, C. S. Weston, R. F., Inc., West Chester, Pennsylvania.
Journal of the Water Pollution Control Federation, Vol. 42,
No. 10, p. 1792-1804, October 1970.
A dynamic programming model was presented that minimized
the total costs to water users and waste discharges in a basin.
The model could also identify direct benefits in terms of
reduced treatment costs. The optimization criterion was to
minimize total water supply and waste treatment costs and to
maximize the direct benefits for the basin subject to regulatory
agency constraints. The river basin model included both con-
servative and nonconservative pollutants in its optimization
scheme yet nonconservative pollutant effects were emphasized.
The optimization procedure was illustrated by a simplified
example. The hypothetical cost functions used in the examples
were compiled from past experience and various literature sources;
the basic data were generalized for inclusion in the example.
In formulating the model a hypothetical river system was
developed. The most salient features associated with the
application of the model presented were discussed.
W-30 THE WASTE TREATMENT MODEL, Mukherjee, S. K. California Univer-
sity, Berkeley, Sanitary Engineering Research Lab. In: SERL
Report No. 69-2, Chapter VI, P. 62-67, January 1969.
A linear programming waste treatment model was used to
determine optimal treatment levels for all waste producing
agencies in the region. The objective of the model was to
minimize the regional treatment costs subject to stream quality
standards. The quality of the water in the stream was character-
ized by the amount of chemical components, such as phenols,
biochemical oxygen demand, phosphate and nitrogen, present.
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The quality standards specified the maximum amount of each compo-
nent that could be discharged at each plant. The decision
variables were the amount of untreated effluent from each
sector to be treated by each treatment method. The inequalities
of a minimum regional cost approach were discussed and the
use of effluent charges indicated by the shadow costs in the
linear programming solution to encourage near-optimal treatment
was suggested.
Water Resources Planning
W-31 MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION OF A LARGE WATERSHED USING THE SYSTEMS
APPROACH TO QUANTITY AND QUALITY ANALYSIS, Song, C. C. Univer-
sity of Minnesota, School of Engineering, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
It is proposed that a comprehensive mathematical model be
constructed, simulating the engineering aspect of a typical
large water resources system. Starting from suitable mathema-
tical models for each component of the system, such as surface
flow, ground water flow, mass transport, movement and change of
pollutant, and snow melt, a comprehensive response function of
a system will be constructed. The validity of the model will
be tested by applying the model to the Minnesota River Watershed
using the available field data on physical parameter of the
watershed, pollution, and use, precipitation, runoff and the
quality of water. Sensitivity analysis of the model will also
be carried out.
Depending on the progress made on the initial stage of the
investigation, one or more of the following items may also be
performed: (1) Stochastic analysis of the input and output of
the system and the response of the system to stochastic input,
(2) Prediction of the quantity and quality of water in Minnesota
river watersheds and comparison with the additional field data,
(3) Systems analysis for the purpose of optimum design and
management of the watershed.
W-32 STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, Loucks, D. P.
Cornell University, School of Engineering, Ithaca, New York.
Analytical methods are to be developed which incorporate
the complex stochastic nature of streamflow and runoff into
models for defining alternative policies for managing both the
quantity and quality of water within a developed river system-
The solutions of these stochastic programming models will
indicate the daily reservoir releases and the quantities of
water that should be allocated to each water use, so as to
best achieve some physical or economic management objective
and at the same time, satisfy all the requirements that are imposed
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upon the system. The study began in Fiscal Year 1968 and
span a two-year period.
W-33 SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC-ECONOMIC FLOW SYSTEM, Packer, M. R.;
Riley, J. P.; and Israelsen, E. K. UNESCO, The Use of Analog
and Digital Computers in Hydrology, Vol. 2, p. 386-391, 1969.
Detailed optimum use considerations in terms of economic
efficiency in water resource planning and management using the
simulation technique was presented. The Cache Valley, Utah
was chosen for simulation in the study. Simulation of an
actual hydrologic-economic system synthesized fundamental
hydrologic and economic processes into a working model. Water
values were investigated by directing water to various alterna-
tive uses from a particular phase of agriculture. The resulting
changes in net benefits both to the system as a whole and to
individual sectors of the economy were observed. The analog
computer was used to develop a model of the system and to
examine the related parameters and the effect of management
changes.
W-34 A NONLINEAR MODEL OF A WATER RESERVOIR SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE USES
AND ITS OPTIMIZATION BY COMBINED USE OF DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING AND
PATTERN SEARCH TECHNIQUES, Erickson, L. E.; Fan, L. T.; Lee,
E. S.; and Meyer, D. L. Kansas State University, Manhattan
Institute for Systems Design and Optimization. Water Resources
Bulletin, Vol. 5, No. 3, p. 18-36, September 1969.
A fairly realistic nonlinear model of a water reservoir
system with multiple uses was developed based on available
data, and the optimum of the system based on the developed
model was determined by the combined use of dynamic programming
and pattern search techniques. Both the simplex search and the
Hooke and Jeeves pattern search were used. Modeling and optimi-
zation can treat complex inequality constraints. The benefits
or losses resulting from urban water supply, hydroelectric power
generation, irrigation, and recreation are taken into account
in the profit function. Other uses such as flood control,
navigation, and fish and wildlife enhancement are considered
indirectly by the use of inequality constraints. It is con-
cluded that the optimization-research approach can treat a
water resource allocation problem involving complex inequality
constraints.
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W-35 AN ECONOMIC MODEL FOR A POLLUTED RIVER SYSTEM, Collinge, V. K.;
Newsome, D. H.; Downing, A. L.; and Renold, J. Fifth Inter-
national Water Pollution Research Conference, San Francisco,
26 July to 1 August 1970. Preprint Paper 1-6.
The River Trent in England is undergoing an extensive systems
analysis, in order to derive technical and economic solutions
to its severe pollution problems. The Trent River authority
needs to develop additional water supplies from the river. The
economic modelling requires quantitative relationships between
cost, quality, quantity, use and benefit. A key concept is
"quality state," meaning an ordered set of concentrations of
water quality constituents. (This appears similar to term
"objective sets" used by Delaware River Basin Commission.)
Substances such as chlorides and suspended solids are found to
act conservatively but BOD, dissolved oxygen and ammonia were
analyzed using the Streeter-Phelps relationships. Dynamic
programming has been chosen for the mathematical modelling,
considering the river to consist of a number of reaches or
stages. Methods of evaluating benefits of various quality
states are being worked out.
W-36 APPLICATION OF A LARGE SCALE NONLINEAR PROGRAMMING ALGORITHM
TO POLLUTION CONTROL, Graves, G.; Pngry, D.; and Whinston, A.
Available from NTIS as AD-721-296, February 1971.
During the past decade several models have been constructed
which use the techniques of mathematical programming to select
the least-cost solution to the problem of river and estuary
pollution. The development of these models has been based on
the explicit consideration of a river as an interrelated system
with regard to water quality". The recognization of the nature
of this system has allowed,-in a theoretical context, large
reductions in the total treatment costs in a river basin. A
model is presented which adequately considers all important
treatment alternatives available and describes their effects
on water quality.
W-37 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SIMULATION FOR WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM PLANNING,
Reynolds, P. J. and Biswas, A. K. Report, Resources Research
Center, Policy and Planning Branch, Department of Energy, Mines
and Resources, Ottawa, Canada, 1969.
The current status of socio-economic simulation in water
resource planning was distinquished: the physical-technologic
subsystem and the socio-economic subsystem. By selecting the
significant variables in a given economy, and analyzing the
interaction between them, it was possible to develop
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economic models which would be of great value in interpreting,
if not predicting, economic behavior of the real world. Regional
economic models provided a better structural understanding of the
complex processes of economic and behavioral interactions within
a system, as well as making possible regional forecasts. These
in turn, provided guidelines for better policy planning and
decision making. Three problem-oriented models were discussed:
the Lehigh, Ohio, and Susquehanna basitts. Efficient allocation
of limited national resources among competing government pro-
grams was achieved by the measurement of their relative cost
effectiveness. This could be done by the evaluation of social,
political and economic effects on human beings, using national
and regional socio-economic models.
Transport of Pollutants
W-38 A METHOD FOR PREDICTING POLLUTANT TRANSPORT IN TIDAL WATERS,
Fischer, H. B. California University, Berkeley, Hydraulic
Laboratory. University of California Water Resources Center
Contribution No. 132, March 1970.
A model for predicting pollutant distribution in estuaries
is presented. The numerical model is entirely predictive, in
that it models both the hydraulics and pollutant transport
without requiring field measurement of artificial coefficients.
It can be used to study in advance of construction the effect
of dredging, dike-building, or channel realignment, or the
effect on an existing estuary of a new source of pollutant.
An example of the use of the programs has been described. Only
the one-dimensional pollutant transport program has received field
verification; the two-dimensional pollutant program has not
been verified at all.
W-39 DISPERSION OF NON-CONSERVATIVE WASTES DISCHARGED INTO THE OCEAN,
Foxworthy, J. E. Loyola University, Los Angeles, California.
Background Papers on Coastal Wastes Management, prepared for
National Academy of Sciences Committee on Oceanography and the
National Academy of Engineering Committee on Ocean Engineering,
Washington, D. C., Vol. 1, 1969, p. VII 1 - VII 21.
In the design of waste disposal facilities it is necessary
to provide more efficient outfall systems and better waste
treatment. In answer to these needs dispersion of non-conser-
vative material has been investigated and the findings and recommen-
dations for further study are presented. Mathematical models
used to quantify the dispersion characteristics and estimation
of the magnitude of the diffusion parameters and initial plume
size, in order to apply these model equations, are discussed.
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Both horizontal and vertical diffusion in the ocean are included.
Empirical relationships in estimating dilution of oceanic waste
plumes are demonstrated and the significance of source size on
the predicted rates of dilution is pointed out. Physical dilution
and soliform mortality is demonstrated by the results of a field
experiment.
W-40 MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE-
DISPERSION IN WELL-MIXED ESTUARIES, Masch, F. D. and Shankar,
N. J. Texas University, Austin, Department of Civil Engineering.
In: Proceedings of the 13th Congress of the International
Associates for Hydraulic Research, Kyoto, Japan, 31 August to
5 September 1969, Vol. 3 (Subject C), Science
Council of Japan, Kyoto, p. 293-301, 1969.
A finite difference transport model was developed for
solving the convective-dispersion equation in two-dimensional
well-mixed estuaries. The transport model is structured in
such a way that it accepts as basin input net velocities and
depths from a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model
describes transport by convection and dispersion over long
periods of time for constant hydrologic inputs. The adaptability
of the finite difference model to real estuarine systems is
demonstrated by its application to the Galveston Bay complex,
an estuary typical of the bays along the Gulf Coast of the
United States. The transport model was also used to evaluate
the effect of enlarging an existing pass in the bay on the
salinity of the system.
W-41 THE USE OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS MODELING IN THE EVALUATION OF
REGIONAL WATER QUALITY INVOLVING SINGLE OR MULTIPLE RELEASES.
R. T. Jaske, Battelle-Northwest, Richland, Washington, Pacific
Northwest Laboratory, Battelle Memorial Institute, BNWL-SA-1372,
August 1967.
In 1963, a digital simulation model was started with the
objective of modeling various streams. The major emphasis on
the improved transport model was for it to be general enough for
application to any turbulent stream. As a result, the develop-
ment of a digital simulation system based on theoretical channel
flow has been successfully accomplished and used in a variety
of cases involving widely divergent input variables. For
example, river temperatures in existing systems have been
successfully modeled to within 0.25C over a six month period.
Moreover, the resulting transport model is suitable for preliminary
studies of effluent dispersion for emergency planning or in cases
where little or no actual field data exist. Even the Bowen ratio
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can be continuously varied and the results compared with field
data as a means of determining the validity of related concepts.
Comparison can readily be made among comparative mathematical
models governing varying interfacial mass exchange expressions
as a means of determining the relative error introduced or
the degree of accuracy required for individual parametric measure-
ments. A hypothetical example is shown for the Illinois River.
W-42 DISPERSION MODEL FOR A STREAM WITH SEVERAL WASTE INPUTS AND WATER
INTAKES. Fan, T. T., Nadkarni, R. S., and Erickson, L. E., Kansas
State University, Manhattan. Department of Chemical Engineering.
Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 7, No. 6, p. 1210-1220, December
1971
A useful mathematical model for prediction, management and
control of water quality was proposed. An analytical solution
was developed to predict the BOD and DO profiles in a stream having
several outfalls of waste and intakes of water. The model also
incorporated continuous addition and removal of BOD and DO along
the stream. A steady state one dimensional dispersion model des-
cribed the transport of BOD and DO in a stream. Changes in
stream properties along the length were considered by dividing
the stream into several segments and changing the parameters of
the BOD and DO equations as needed in each segment. By applying
continuity equations at the boundaries of these segments and
equilibrium conditions at either ends of the infinitely long
stream, the arbitrary constants in the solutions to the differ-
ential equations for BOD and DO were determined. Some applica-
tions of the results in studying water pollution problems were
illustrated and various uses of the model were discussed.
W-43 A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF A LAKE SYSTEM. Verhoff, F. H. (speaker)
and Cordeiro, C. F., University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana
A model for the surface waters of a quiescent lake has been
developed. It has as its variables algal, bacterial, carbonate,
phosphate, and organic concentrations and takes into consideration
the cycling of carbon, oxygen and phosphorus between the various
components. Parametric studies have been made on the effect of
light and temperature as well as on the transport and kinetic
rate coefficients.
W-44 THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A TIME-VARYING DISSOLVED OXYGEN
MODEL. Pence, G. D., Jeglic, J. M., and Thomann, R. V., presented
at National Estuarine Conference, Stanford University, August,
1967.
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W-45 MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR DISSOLVED OXYGEN. Thomann, R. V. ,
San. Engr. Div. Jour., Proc. ASCE, October 1963.
Forecasting Water Demand
W-46 FUTURE WATER DEMANDS - THE IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE,
PUBLIC POLICIES, AND CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS ON THE WATER
USE PATTERNS OF SELECTED SECTORS OF THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY:
1970-1990. Howe, C. W., Russell, C. S., Young, R. A., and
Vaughan, W. J., Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington,
D. C. Available from NTIS as PB-197 877, Report National Water
Commission NWC-EES-71-001, March 1971.
This report summarizes the findings of 3 studies on water
demands: (1) urban, (2) industrial, and (3) agricultural; it
analyzes the effects of likely market trends, public policies,
and technological change on water use and water pollution. The
3 studies concentrate on representative establishments, but fre-
quently generalize results. (1) The urban study focuses on
residential demands, and gives aggregate extrapolations from
1970 to 1990; trends in commercial demands are also discussed.
Economically feasible ways to reduce losses from municipal water
systems are analyzed thoroughly. (2) Three industries were
analyzed in detail; thermal electric power, beet sugar refining,
and petroleum refining. In each industry the withdrawal, con-
sumption, and wasteload patterns of a representative plant are
studies as functions of water price, water quality standards or
effluent charges, input qualities, and output mix; aggregate
projections are given. (3) The agricultural study characterizes
typical farms in 3 major irrigation areas: the Lower Colorado
Basin, Central Arizona, and the hard soils section of the Texas
High Plains. The responses of water use patterns to water pricing,
farm programs, and technology are traced.
W-47 A MULTISTRUCTURAL DEMAND MODEL FOR WATER REQUIREMENT FORECASTING
(FINAL REPORT). Reid, G. E., Oklahoma Univ., Norman. Bureau of
Water Resources Research. Available from the Clearinghouse as
PB-190 813. Oklahoma University Research Institute Project 1626,
Final report to Office of Water Resources Research, January 1970.
A 'people needs' mathematical model, multistaged, multi-
variant, or multistructured and fully computerized was developed
to forecast future water requirements. The economic model.for
projecting municipal sector requirements will provide public,
private, and service sector needs under various life style goals
for either possible or probable worlds articulated over time and
adjustable to revised goals. The model has a national base using
resource concepts. The basic model uses both demographic and
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economic inputs and provides, through shift analyses, adjudicated
sector outputs. The economic model is adaptable to a variety
of technical models or procedures to produce municipal and
industrial water requirements. The model has been used on a
major city, it is completely computerized, and can be easily
used for other essential services such as sewage, storm water,
transportation, housing, etc. On regional or basin bases, irri-
gation, municipal, power, and other uses of water can be balanced.
This flexible demand model can be used as a tool on a wide variety
of supply-demand studies.
W-48 FORECASTING DEMAND FOR URBAN WATER SUPPLY. Whitford, P. W.,
Stanford Univ., Calif. Program in Engineering Economic Planning.
Available from NTIS as PB-195 664. Project on Engineering-
Economic Planning. Report EEP-36, September 1970.
Conventional methods of forecasting future demand for muni-
cipal water supply were found to give undue emphasis to historical
rates of use, to ignore many relevant factors, and to fail to
distinguish between compoents of use. This study is concerned
with only the residential part of urban water use, the components
of which, such as lawn sprinkling, toilet flushing, washing
machines or air conditioning, are discussed in turn with considera-
tion given to price sensitivity and possible future trends. A
forecasing model or framework for analysis is proposed. Six
factors influencing future water use are: regulations on the
water use of appliances; the type of pricing policy that is adopted;
policy on public education; the housing patterns of the future;
the cost of supply; changes in the technolgoy of use. Two or
three outcomes are considered for each of these factors and com-
binations of these outcomes form alternative descriptions of the
future. Four case studies are used (Baltimore, Kansas City,
Phoenix and Seattle) and, for each case, a 'baseline' estimate
is made which reflects past trends. Then the effect on water use
of each alternative future is estimated. Probabilities are sub-
jectively assigned to each outcome, allowing a probability dis-
tribution of future water demand to be drawn.
W-49 URBAN AREA WATER CONSUMPTION: ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS. Saunders,
R. J., West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, Quarterly Review of
Economics and Business. Vol. 9, No. 2; p. 5-20, Summer 1969.
This article deals with the recent increasing concern that
water may become a relatively scarce resource in the foreseeable
future due to current inefficiencies in water usage. One possible
solution is a definite set of priorities for water usage, especially
in urban areas where higher productivity uses abound. This article
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tries to identify factors which, on an aggregate basis, are closely
associated with, or which determine, the level of water usage in
urban areas and, on the basis of these factors, construct a fore-
cast of water usage for a number of alternative urban areas in
the U.S. in 1975. Variations in urban water usage, economic,
demographic and water data form the basis for the identification
of the various factors. This data was analyzed by principal
component analysis and least-squares regression analysis. The
factors arrived at related urban size with population and studied
income variations, housing differences, and available plumbing,
as well as rent and per capita production of water. City size
was most important, followed by area income level and per capita
water usage. Using this information, water usage projections
were made for 1975.
W-50 FORECASTING MUNICIPAL WATER REQUIREMENTS, SYSTEM TAPE. Hittman
Associates, Inc., Columbia, Md. Available from the Clearinghouse
as PB-192 421. Documented in Hittman Associates report HIT-413,
September 1969, Vol. III.
Methods for estimating municipal water requirements and for
forecasting the values of municipal water use parameters have been
combined to form a comprehensive forecasting method, called the
MAIN II System. This tape contains the computer program developed
to implement the MAIN II System. Complete documentation is con-
tained in a User's Manual, PB-190 276, titled, 'Forecasting Muni-
cipal Water Requirements: Volume II. The MAIN II System User's
Manual.'
W-51 MAIN C: COMPUTERIZED METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATION OF MUNICIPAL WATER
CONSERVATION RESEARCH PROGRAMS, SYSTEM TAPE. Hittman Associates,
Inc., Columbia, Md. Available from the Clearinghouse as PB-192 422.
Documented in Hittman Associates report HIT-409, August 1969,
Vol II.
A computer model has been developed which estimates the influ-
ence of proposed water conservation devices, processes, or practices
on the water requirements of an urban area, including the economic
impact on the water supply utility. This tape contains the com-
puter program developed to implement this model. Complete docu-
mentation is contained in a User's Manual, PB-190 278, titled
'MIAN C: Computerized Methodology for Evaluation of Municipal
Water Conservation Research Programs, Volume II, User's Manual
and System Documentation.'
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W-52 EVALUATION OF THE DECISION PROCESS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING.
Linsley, R. K., Stanford Univ., Calif. Dept. of Civil Engineering.
Available from NTIS as PB-197 530. Engineering Economic Planning
Report EEP-38, December 1970.
A summary report of research reviewing a study of methods
of stochastic analysis in hydrology, application of the methods
of alternative futures for estimates of urban residential water
requirements and the use of statistical methods for estimating
costs of dams and reservoirs. The results are a probabilistic
estimate of water demand.
W-53 MATHEMATICAL MODELS: PLANNING TOOLS FOR THE GREAT LAKES. Upchurch,
S. B., and Robb, D. C. N., Water Resources Bulleting 8(2), 338-348,
April 1972.
Present and projected water and related land-resource problems
and demands in the Great Lakes, Basin are assessed by mathematical
modeling. A two-phase program, comprising a feasibility and design
study followed by contracted and in-house modeling, data assembly
and plan development, has been initiated. Models will be used
to identify sensitivities of the lakes to planning and management
alternatives, insufficiencies in the data base and inadequately
understood ecosystem interactions. The long-term effects of plan-
ning alternatives and their impacts on neighboring lakes and states
can also be evaluated, along with the consequences of environmental
accidents and increased pollution levels.
W-54 POTENTIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES AND THEIR IMPACT ON ANTICIPATED
WATER REQUIREMENTS. National Academy of Sciences, Washington,
D. C. Committee on Technologies and Water. National Water Com-
mission Report No. NWC-EES-71-015, June 1971, Available from
National Technical Information Service as PB-204 053.
Potential technological advances and their effect on water
supply and demand in the future are evaluated. These advances
are considered in terms of possibilities, rather than as predic-
tions of events most likely to happen. It presents a directory
of concepts to increase or decrease future water demand, to in-
crease usable supplies, and to extend usefulness of impure water.
A chronological estimation of the likelihood and operational
utility of new technologies is included. Consideration is given
to 6 non-technical concepts which may have an impact on the direc-
tion of future technological effort. In four scenarios of possible
futures, technological concepts are applied to food production,
electric power generation, urban water supply and municipal waste
disposal, with identification of political, social and economic
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factors. The report indicates research priorities and ways in
which technological change should be given greater emphasis in
water planning. A bibliography of related works is included.
W-55 AN ALLOCATION MODEL TO DETERMINE AGRICULTURE'S ABILITY TO
COMPETE FOR WATER. Reynolds, J. E., and Connor, J. R., Florida
Agricultural Experiment Station Journal, Series No. 4245, 1971.
The distribution of existing or potential supplies of water
among competing uses may involve many important decisions affecting
the development and use of water resources. Presented is an
economic allocation model which provides criteria for allocating
water among alternative uses. The model assumes the prevailing
goal of society is economic and that production functions for all
products can be estimated, assumptions which may not always relate
to real world situations. Some problems of empirical application
of the model are discussed such as the need to develop accurate
production functions; more research is needed in terms of esti-
mating marginal value productivities of water at levels of use
other than those which are optimal for the firm or production
unit. Extensions of the model are explored to handle other problems
such as water quality, varying demands for water at different
times of the year, and physical and institutional constraints
upon economically efficient water allocation. These model exten-
sions help to illustrate problems specific to agricultural uses
and identify needed research. Despite data limitations, the general
nature of the production response to water can be approximated
from available data, providing useful guidelines for making water
decisions.
W-56 THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER. Wollman, N., New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque,
The Johns Hopkins Press for Resources for the Future, Inc.,
Baltimore, 1971.
The study seeks to develop a systematic economic model that
(1) recognizes the regional aspects of the water problem yet yields
a national perspective, (2) permits aggregation of demand and
supply into usefully parallel concepts, (3) takes into account
the fugitive and probabilistic characteristics of supply as well
as the interdependence between supply and demand, and (4) identifies
important choices to be made and tensions to expect within and
among water resource regions. Another important aspect of this
study is the concern for the incorporation of aesthetic judgements
within the body of an economic analysis of water resources. The
authors maintain that there is an urgent need for well-developed
techniques of comprehensive projection for future water supplies
and requirements, so that wise planning of water resources will
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become a reality. The book is divided into two major parts.
The first part describes the study briefly in terms of the concep-
tualization of the problem and the approach to it, the basic model
and variations upon it, a summary of findings, and discussion of
policy issues and research priorities. The second part presents
more detail in the form of proj ections for population and economic
activity to the year 2020, coefficients of water use and withdrawal
uses, water quality, water supply and the costs of flow, short-
term tertiary treatment, and variations in selected parameters of
the basic model.
W-57 USE OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT PLANS FOR NEW YORK STATE, ADDENDUM. Liu, C. S., Brennan,
L., and Tedrow, A. C. New York State Dept. of Environmental
Conservation, Albany, Bureau of Water Resources Planning. Available
from the National Technical Information Service as PB-205 281.
This report extended an earlier report whose objective was
to develop tools of systems analysis for use in New York State's
water resources planning. A systems analysis approach to allocate
flood control storages from the lakes and reservoirs of the Oswego
River System was investigated. The linear programming technique
used generated a flood control utility measuring function to the
monthly operations model which indicated the available storage
for conservation purposes. A new simulation program was developed
which considered alternative systems, operating rules and other
system configurations. A simulation analysis studied the Oswego
system's ability to meet projected water demands. A systems func-
tional evaluation included actual water deliveries and shortages
and stage frequency distributions. A single reservoir operations
analysis provided a tool in assisting project analysis of small-
scale development in the Oswego Basin study. Uncertainty in
reservoir operations was assessed and the size of the reservoir
storage capacity estimated using synthetic hydrology. Frequency
analysis based on fixed period of observation was emphasized.
Applications to the Oswego River Basin were presented. An essential
element in this study was the system continuity equationan
important relation which accurately and quantitatively described
how various system variables interact.
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W-58 WATER RESOURCES PLANNING IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT. Wapora, Inc.,
Washington, D.C., B. Baratz, and B. J. Wachter. Available from
NTIS, as PB-200 085.
The study covered a detailed investigation of water resource
planning in the Southwest Urban Renewal Project of Washington,
D.C. This entailed consideration of institutional, financial,
and recreational aspects of water resources as well as engineering
details. A recent systems methodology available for computing
water requirements in urban areas was utilized as a means of
testing its validity in the Southwest project. From a comprehensive
survey, additional cities with extensive urban renewal activity
were selected and visited. Data from these cities were compared
to the Washington, D.C. information. The results were incorporated
into a series of guidelines for both urban and utilities planners.
Some of the areas identified as needing further consideration
include: (1) Greater exposure of utility engineers to the systems
engineering studies for metropolitan water planning; (2) Greater
attention to recreational aspects of water resources planning;
(3) Reconciliation of the difference between urban renewal and
city planning personnel; (4) Examination of fire flow requirements
for urban renewal projects; (5) Consideration of alternative
methods of using non-potable water for such purposes as sprinkling,
toilet flushing, fire requirements, etc. Although urban renewal
does not represent an engineering challenge for water supply,
further attention is needed to ascertain what efficiencies and
economics might be effected by more detailed attention to planning
inner-city renewal.
W-59 FORECASTING WATER DEMANDS AND SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES. Illinois
State Water Survey, Urbana. Wyndham J. Roberts, Sandor C.
Csallany, and Neil G. Towery. ASCE Proceedings, Journal of the
Sanitary Engineering Division, Vol. 96, No. SA 6, Paper 7745,
p. 1349-1360, December 1970.
One feature of the 1968 Illinois Water Plan was concerned with
the condition and future capability of water systems in 1200
incorporated communities. It was necessary to determine the
condition of each water facility, such as its present pumpage,
the filter plant capacity, and the water source capacity.
Projections of water demands on each system to the year 1980,
and a county basis to 2020, were made by using population estimates.
W-60 WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS: TOWARDS A
CONCEPTUAL MODEL. Wisconsin Univ., Madison. Water Resources
Center. D. W. Bromley, N. L. Meyer, J. Stoltzenberg, and M. Warner,
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Available from NTIS as PB-210918, Wisconsin Water Resources
Center, Madison, Completion Report, February 1972.
As multiobjective evaluation of water resource investments
becomes more common, it is important to develop conceptual bases
for including monetary as well as nonmonetary impacts in the
evaluation process. This is currently hampered by the lack of
a comprehensive and systematic model which permits the identification
and display of the many project impacts. And, more importantly,
there is little information on the linkage between economic
activity and many environmental impacts. A start is made by
depicting natural resource use by sector of economic activity,
with concentration on land use. A simulation model is developed
which will determine acres in certain land use categories in
Southern Idaho over time without any water development. By
being able to predict land use changes with and without a project,
the first step in linking economic activity to certain environmental
impacts has been taken.
W-61 ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF WATER PART IV: AN INPUT-OUTPUT AND LINEAR
PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS OF CALIFORNIA WATER REQUIREMENTS. Lofting,
E. M., University of California Water Resources Center (Forthcoming)
W-62 ESTIMATED USE OF WATER IN THE UNITED STATES, 1960. MacKichan,
K. A. and J. C. Kammerer, Geological Survey Circular No. 456,
Washington, U.S. Dept. of the Interior (1961).
Water-Based Recreation Demand
W-63 SPATIAL ALLOCATION MODEL FOR PROJECTED WATER BASED RECREATION
DEMAND. Cornell Univ., Ithaca, N.Y. Dept. of Agricultural
Economics. M. E. Tadros, and R. J. Kalter. Water Resources
Research, Vol. 7, No. 4, p 798-811, August 1971.
An allocation model designed to distribute spatially
projected recreation use estimates forthcoming from 'structural
demand* equations of the recreation market for specified water
based activities was presented. A linear programming model that
handles simultaneously projected demand by occasion type,
capacities of potentially visited recreation zones, time, distance
and cost considerations was utilized. Application of the model
to 22 counties in central upstate New York provided empirical
results. Swimming, boating, fishing and camping were the four
recreational activities for which the model was solved. Model
solutions were obtained through use of the Fortran IV computer
program and the IBM 360 Mathematical Programming System on the
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IBM 360/65 digital computer. Compatibility between results
and the recreation demand projections used were ensured by model
constraints and an objective function was postulated that
permitted quality considerations to be incorporated into the
model solution. Also, the model's simulation of policy actions
through iteration techniques provide an important tool for
decision makers and, although data requirements for empirical
implementation are high, the model mechanism permits integration
of various types of information and supplies a previously
unavailable result.
W-64 AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR PREDICTING WATER-ORIENTED OUTDOOR
RECREATION DEMAND. Economic Research Service, Washington, D.C.
Natural Resource Economics Div.; and Missouri Agricultural
Experiment Station, Columbia. Gleen A. Gillespie, and Durward
Brewer. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service,
ERS-402, p. 1-15, Mar 1969.
Land-use planners and investors can now make better estimates
of the demand for water-oriented recreation facilities in specific
areas. The estimates are made by using an econometric model
developed in cooperative USDA-State research. The model, one
of the first of its kind, analyzes socioeconomic characteristics
associated with water-oriented outdoor recreation activities of
people: annual family income, education, sex, race, age, and
occupation. The model, applied to a 1,000-family sample of
people in the St. Louis, Mo., area indicated that they would
have averaged 27.3 days of water-oriented recreation a year.
Interviews revealed that the families spent 27.0 days showing
how closely the estimate followed the known data. Future demand
can be estimated, with acceptable accuracy, through use of the
model with data from census reports, much in the same way as the
test was done. If certain socioeconomic characteristics of the
population are expected to change over time, allowances can be
made to estimate resulting changes in recreation demand. As a
family moves up the income scale, a corresponding increase in
recreation activity is expected. As education levels increase,
recreation demand will increase. Because the methodology is
based on a sample survey of only one metropolitan population
in one time period, the appropriateness of using the model in
other metropolitan areas must be carefully assessed. Other
areas may have radically different characteristics, especially
the available supply of outdoor recreation facilities. The
coefficients (socioeconomic characteristics) should also be
reassessed for changes which may occur over time.
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W-65 ESTIMATION OF NET SOCIAL BENEFITS FROM OUTDOOR RECREATION.
Oscar R. Hurt and Durward Brewer. Econometrica, Vol. 39, No. 5.
An economic framework is presented for measurement of the
net social benefits that can be attributed to development of a
new outdoor recreation site, taking into consideration the
influence that existing recreation developments have on the
demand for services from the newly developed site. Methods are
given for statistically estimating the empirical measures needed
to apply the model, and an application is made to water-oriented
outdoor recreation in Missouri. Results of the application
suggest that investments in outdoor recreation can be evaluated
under an objective economic decision criterion.
W-66 MODELING AND PREDICTING HUMAN RESPONSE TO THE VISUAL RECREATION
ENVIRONMENT. Northwestern Univ., Evanston, 111., and Corps of
Engineers, Washington, D.C. George L. Peterson, and Edward S.
Neumann. Journal of Leisure Research, Vol 1, No 3, p 219-237,
Summer 1969.
The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a conceptual
and methodological approach for analyzing subjective response to
the appearance of the recreation environment. The conceptual
framework employs a mathematical preference model to hypothesize
and quantify a man-environment relationship. To obtain data for
the model, recreation environments were simulated by photos and
responses classified by techniques of psychological measurement.
The preference functions should be sensitive to differences in
characteristics of alternative environments as well as to differences
in people's responses to the same environmental conditions. It
is hypothesized that such responses are influences by measurable
factors such as life style, social rank, culture rank, culture,
and personality. The model is demonstrated using Lake Michigan
beaches. Results show that two groups with different preferences
are identifiable. The larger group prefers scenic natural beaches
and the smaller prefers city swimming beaches. The study shows
conflicting user preferences for the characteristics of beaches.
Studies of this nature would be helpful to the water planner in
determining the types of recreation facilities that should be
provided.
Water Treatment Systems
W-67 DYNAMIC PROGRAMING OF CAPACITY EXPANSION OF MUNICIPAL WATER
TREATMENT SYSTEM. Hirohide Hinomoto, Department of Business
Adminsitration, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801.
The multistage capacity expansion of a municipal water
treatment system is investigated to determine the sizes of new
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treatment plants and the times at which these new plants are
added to the system. The capital and operating costs of these
plants are given by concave functions reflecting economies of
scale available with an increase in capacity. To determine the
optimum sizes and installation times of the new plants, this
expansion problem is formulated as a dynamic programing model.
W-68 TIME CAPACITY EXPANSION OF WASTE TREATMENT SYSTEMS. Pennsylvania
State Univ., University Park; and Stanford Univ., Calif. Thomas
M. Rachford, Russell F. Scarato, and George Tchobanoglous.
J. Sanit Eng Div., ASCE, Vol 95, No SA6, p. 1063-1077, Dec 1969.
A minimum-cost method was developed for quantifying the
opposing cost factors of economies-of-scale and the time cost
of money as they jointly affect optimal capital investment decisions
for the expansion of wastewater treatment systems. For a linear
demand growth rate, optimal facility expansion, with regard to
both timing and capacity requirements, was determined using a
mathematical model. The economic implications of different
expansion policies were graphed for various interest rates and
scales cost affects, using cost data mathematically formulated
as a function of system capacity. The model was used to demonstrate
that the optimal timing of facility expansion was a function
of the time and cost of money and the economy-of-scale characteristics
of that facility and was independent of the absolute capacity of
the facility. Further additional economies inherent in individually
expanding separable components of wastewater treatment system
were quantified by the model.
W-69 SYSTEMS ANALYSIS FOR WATER SUPPLY AND POLLUTION CONTROL. Michigan
Univ., Ann Arbor. School of Public Health. Rolf A. Deininger.
In: Natural Resources Systems Models in Decision Making, Water
Resources Research Center, Purdue Univ., p. 45-65, 1970.
The purpose of this paper was to review the role of systems
analysis in the planning of water supply systems and pollution
control works. Six examples were briefly outlined which showed
the use of new techniques on practically every level of pollution
control and water supply engineering. First, the standard steps
in a systems analysis study were shown as well as the techniques
and tools available for use. These included linear and dynamic
programming, digital computer, simulation techniques, etc. The
specific examples used to illustrate the use of these techniques
were entitled; (a) design of a sewer system; (b) design of sewage
treatment plants; (c) design of intercommunity waste water
collection and treatment systems; (d) river basin-wide planning;
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(e) conversational design of treatment plants and automatic
plotting of plans and (f) a water supply problem pertaining
to the city of Ankara, Turkey.
W-70 SYNTHESIS OF THE DISPERSION AND WASTE TREATMENT MODELS. California
Univ., Berkeley. Sanitary Engineering Research Lab. Shishir K.
Mukherjee. In: SERI Report No 69-2. Chapter VII. p. 68-77.
January 1969.
A complete model of estuarine water quality management was
obtained by a synthesis of the dispersion and waste treatment
models. The multicomponent water quality model simultaneously
provided optimal plans of treatment and discharge along the
estuary. The economics of alternative methods of quality
improvement and cost reduction schemes like transportation of
waste from one section of the estuary to another or process
changes were studied. Economic growth projections and other
modifications like inclusion of social costs were also incorporated
in this model. Dual prices could be used as a basis for a
system of charges aimed at equitable distribution of operating
costs among discharges, motivating them to reduce waste discharge
by improving production and waste treatment processes. The main
advantages of the model were its multicomponent nature, availability
of standard computer codes for fast solution, direct output of
optimum treatment plans, and flexibility regarding various
objectives.
W-71 MODEL OF OPTIMAL COMBINATION OF TREATMENT AND DILLUTION. Oklahoma
Univ., Norman, Dept. of Civil Engineering and Sanitary Science.
George W. Reid, Leale E. Streebin, Robert Y. Nelson and 0. Tom Love,
Proc 3rd Annu Amer Water Resources Conf, Nov 8-10, 1967,
San Francisco, p 339-350, 1967.
Models were developed to depict waste dilution flows used
with projections of reservoir and treatment costs to provide
optimal combinations of low flow augmentation and waste treatment.
Projection of municipal and industrial loadings were developed
on a nationwide data base using standard statistical methods.
The study revealed mean and variances of strength and discharges.
A similar study developed treatment efficiency matrices and
corresponding treatment costs. These costs reflected scale
effects, and were presented in terms of capital, operation, and
maintenance costs. A novel technique employing micro and macro
models and 'tunneling* procedure was used to disaggregate national
values and to provide basin loading level forecasts. Stream
input-output models were developed in terms of responses to
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impressed loads, characterized as biodegradable, nutritional,
persistent chemical, and thermal. The models were developed
as a function of stream parameters. The loads and stream
resources were treated on a basin level in these macro level
models. The model provides optimal or least cost combination
of waste treatment and dilution.
Model Bibliography
W-72 SYSTEMS ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT-SURVEY AND ABSTRACTS.
Enviro Control, Inc., Washington, B.C. Environmental Protection
Agency, Water Quality Office, September, 1971.
Due to the increasing scale of national efforts to clean
up our streams, rivers and lakes, a survey of the current state-
of-the-art in systems analysis for water quality management has
been conducted. The survey is geared primarily towards helping
to acquaint non-specialists with the prevailing methods, capabilities,
and limitations of the analytical approach, in light of continuous
rapid growth of systems analysis techniques in water quality
management; physical, chemical and biological considerations in
water quality modeling; and legal, social demographic, and
economic aspects of water quality. Part II presents a group of
relatively detailed abstracts of a representative sampling of
papers in relevant analytical input areas and in the major water
quality modeling areas. It is concluded that systems analysis
should be simply a practical, rational and quantitative approach
to illuminating, but not necessarily solving, decision issues that
involve costs and benefits.
W-73 METHODS, MODELS AND INSTRUMENTS FOR STUDIES OF AQUATIC POLLUTION.
AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY. Ocean Engineering Information Service,
La Jolla, Calif. E. Sinha. Ocean Engineering Information Series
Vol 5, 1971.
This bibliography contains 204 abstracts of literature providing
substantial scientific and technical information on methods, models
and instruments used in studies of aquatic pollution and means of
abatement. These deal with the detection, identification and
measurement of the parameters of pollution, biotic constituents,
detergents and nutrients, pesticides, oil, metals, and non-metallic
toxicants. Various aspects of water quality management are
encompassed. Pertinent patents, a bibliography of bibliographies,
a subject outline, a keyterm index, and an index citing all authors
and co-authors are included.
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Model Validity
W-74 A PROPOSAL TO DEVELOP A PLAN FOR THE CONSTRUCTION AND TESTING
OF WATER POLLUTION FORECASTING MODELS. Missouri Univ., Columbia.
Dept. of Industrial Engineering. G. S. Staats, L. G. David,
0. W. Miller, H. A. Knappenberger, and K. C. Cooper. Missouri
Water Resources Research Center, Completion Report, October 1, 1971.
The problem of water pollution control requires that a
study be made to determine the extent of efforts being presently
expended to measure water quality and to evaluate the effectiveness
of existing data as a predictor of the level of stream pollution.
Data pertaining to water quality in the river basins in Missouri
are being obtained by a state and a federal agency. This study
summarizes the data being obtained and presents the results of
an initial investigation of the correlations among four variables:
rate of stream flow, dissolved oxygen, total phosphate and total
coliform bacteria. Total coliform bacteria correlated very
highly with the rate of steam flow. A step-by-step procedure
is proposed for developing and evaluating a comprehensive forecasting
model to determine the significant variables that would be
effective in forecasting the degree of pollutant concentration
in streams.
W-75 ACCURACY OF DISCRETE MODELS USED TO PREDICT ESTUARY POLLUTION.
Leeds, J. V., Water Resources Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, (1967).
Indices
W-76 THE PDI INDEX. By A. C. Johnson, S. S. Poh. The MITRE Corporation,
WP-7963,for Office of Water Programs, Sept. 1971.
An index of water pollution based on the Prevalence,
Duration and Intensity of pollution has been developed. Field
personnel of EPA have reported (in the summer of 1971) index
values for 1055 Basic Data Units (BDU's) covering the geographic
area of the entire nation. In this paper, the reported PDI
index values are ranked, and the median national ranks are
reported for the BDU's within each of four types of BDU, within
EPA regions, within states, and within Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas. Some preliminary analysis is performed, and
conclusions and recommendations are presented.
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W-77 NATIONAL PLANNING PRIORITY INDEX. By S. S. Poh, R. C. Landis,
J. B. Truett. Sept. 1971, The MITRE Corporation, WP-7944.
This paper describes how a planning priority index is
determined from relevant parameters, presents the results of
the updated and improved calculation of index values, and
documents the computer program used in the recomputation of
indices. Included are values of a planning priority index for
more than 1000 areas which together cover virtually all land
area of the U.S. Index values are ranked in four tabular
arrangements: 1) for all planning areas of the nation;
2) for all planning areas within each EPA region; 3) for all
planning areas within each state; and 4) for the planning areas
of each type (i.e., metropolitan, basin lacking regional or
metropolitan, etc.).
Industrial Water Use
W-78 AN INTERINDUSTRY ANALYSIS OF THE CALIFORNIA WATER ECONOMY.
Lofting, E. M. and P. H. McGauhey. Water Resources Center,
University of California, Berkeley (1963).
W-79 INDUSTRIAL WATER USE. U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census
of Manufactures: 1958, Bull, MC58 (l)-ll, Washington (1961).
W-80 WATER USE IN MANUFACTURING. U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Census of Manufactures: 1963, Bull. MC63 (1)-10, Washington
(1966).
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SOLID "WASTE
Solid Waste Facility Planning
S-l SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL PROBLEMS. Wolfe, H. B.
and Zinn, R. E., Public Works, September 1967
Growing population density and concurrent changes in employ-
ment, land use, and levels of income, are creating new patterns of
solid waste generation. As disposal problems become more complex,
it is mandatory that all methods used be integrated with respect
to each other and to the disposal of gaseous and liquid wastes.
To predict the outcomes of alternative courses and make the choice
that promises the most favorable return, a rational base for
organized decision is required. By combining in a single model,
the technical and social costs and benefits, the ideal integration
of cost/benefit is obtained. The model ("linear programming")
contains equations and inequalities representing the processes
and the capacity constraints in the facilities.
The model can be used to evaluate existing facilities, and
also to indicate the configuration of facilities that would meet
future needs of the area. Therefore it can be used to determine
the optimal balance between various waste management processes as
a function of their costs and capacity, and of the imposed limita-
tions. Analysis of waste-management procedures would require basic
data on the current methods of handling, including: sources and
quantities of solid waste generation, waste collection systems, and
waste disposal methods. This should also include any benefits that
are generated in the system. These should be estimated. A "sensi-
tivity analysis" is required because projections of future population
and economic activity and solid waste generation will not be precise.
The estimates of future solid waste if varied, should determine the
impact of alternative levels of solid waste. Technological possi-
bilities for handling and disposing of waste materials should be
reviewed and classified. The major objective in developing a list
of all possible alternatives would be to identify and estimate the
values of those parameters (such as capital costs, costs of opera-
tion, and impact on the environment) necessary for analysis in the
mathematical model. With the information thus far developed, the
effects of statutory and administrative problems that could inhibit
the implementation of an optimum system can be identified and fed
into the model as additional constraints. The paper has a manage-
ment flow diagram and an example of a linear program model.
S-2 BASIC COST FUNCTIONS AND PARAMETER ESTIMATES. Schultz, G. P.,
jLn Managerial Decision Making in Local Government: Facility
Planning for Solid Waste Collection, Ph.D. Thesis, Cornell
University, Ithaca, N. Y., January 1968, p. 73-90.
The decision problems involved in facility planning require
carefully stated models describing physical and cost relationships
among variables. The critical variables should be quantifiable,
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and their relationships clear enough that mathematical models can
be used to describe them. The variables involved in a system may
be categorized into environmental, system, and mixed parameters.
Each of these variables is explained in detail. The overall decision
model developed here begins by establishing a facility capacity-
location and a service area size-form which are typical for the
city as a whole for some point in time. Next, typical facilities
and service areas are distributed over the city and modified to form
an efficient set. Then in response to demand, facilities are ex-
panded in a manner which minimizes cost over a long planning period.
The steps which make up this model are grouped into three indepen-
dent submodels: the typical facility and service area submodel;
the facility location submodel; and the facility timing submodel.
The purpose of each submodel is to minimize direct cost per house-
hold. A sensitivity analysis is used to determine the extent to
which costs change if the values of parameters or decision variables
differ from expected values. The decision model is a device for
organizing available information; the network of assumptions have
to be adjusted to each specific problem.
S-2 BASIC COST FUNCTIONS AND PARAMETER ESTIMATES. Schultz, G. P.,
(Con't.) ±a Managerial Decision Making in Local Government: Facility
Planning for Solid Waste Collection, Ph.D. Thesis, Cornell
University, Ithaca, N. Y., January 1968, p. 91-117.
The derivation of basic cost functions for facility construc-
tion, processing activities, and collection activities to be used
in the submodels are noted. The facility cost is determined by
non-quantifiable attributes of the facility (facility quality) which
are assumed constant for all facilities at all points in time, and
by initial facility costs which may be determined through use of
functions given. The function for determining annual facility cost
is also given. The functions necessary for determining processing
costs are detailed with definitions and assumptions implicit in its
derivation. Collection activities include travel from the transfer
station. Costs associated with these activities are rental equiva-
lents for collection vehicles and wages for vehicle crews. Further
simplifying assumptions used are: each household receives the same
number of pickups per week; travel time is proportional to distance
and collection vehicle capacity is constant; crew size is constant;
and each crew works an 8 hr. day. The variables to be used are de-
fined, and functions for determining collection costs are given.
The parameters of the cost functions would ordinarily be estimated
from data in the city; the values here are derived from existing
systems or assigned plausible values. Processing, collection, and
household parameters are defined.
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S-3 THE FACILITY TIMING STRATEGY. Schultz, G. P., in Managerial
Decision Making in Local Government; Facility Planning for Solid
Waste Collection, Ph.D. Thesis, Cornell University, Ithaca, N. Y.,
January 1968, p. 181-226.
A facility timing strategy is a set of decisions concerning
the initial size of each facility, the size of increments to these
facilities, and the times at which they would be built. The optimal
timing strategy results in the lowest cost per household over a
relatively long planning period. Proposed models on facility timing
are considered, and the effects of long-run and short-run strategies
on the urban planning level examined. When the household distribution
is largely fixed early in the planning period, the facility location
pattern should be based on the distribution for a time early in the
period. Functions considering the expansion in demand and costs are
given. Models developed include forecasts of demand as a function
of time and measure the costs of excess capacity and excess demand.
A product inventory model is designed to determine the optional
number of items to produce per production run and the optimal in-
terval between runs, as developed for manufacturing situations. A
facility inventory model is proposed which can be applied to the
timing of construction of increments when the demand is increasing
at a constant rate. Another model, which requires the assumption
that facility locations and service areas are fixed but could allow
the introduction of changes in a number of parameters, is also
proposed.
S-4 A JOINT OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR OPERATING AND CAPITAL ALLOCATIONS.
Clark, R. M.,(Cincinnati), U.S. Department of Health, Education,
and Welfare, 1969.
The model which is presented can be used in selecting the most
efficient type of treatment facility, as well as in minimizing the
total cost of operation for that facility.
Collection
S-5 AN INVESTIGATION OF SOLID WASTE COLLECTION POLICIES. Truitt, M. M.,
Liebman, J. C., and Kruse, C. W., Department of Environmental
Health, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, Volumes
1 and 2, Terminal Report, August 1968
In Volume 1 are discussed in detail three simulation models
prepared in FORTRAN IV language on an IBM 7094 computer for use on
digital computers. It includes data from observations of urban
collection activity. It presents the results of model usage in
predicting results of proposed system changes in the existing
Baltimore system.
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A User's Guide for future operation of the final model and
the program coding of the model is given in Volume 2.
Model 1 simulates many trucks collecting in an urban neighbor-
hood which has household densities per acre defined within certain
limits. Model response of major interest is the number of household
units which can be serviced by a collection truck in an 8-hour day.
Runs were made for different combinations of haul distances, neighbor-
hood densities, collection frequencies, and seasons.
Model 2 is similar to Model 1, with one major policy difference,
namely, a definite number of households is assigned to each truck as
the day's task, rather than working an 8-hour day. Response of major
interest keeps unit cost of the operation for combinations of different
collection frequencies, neighborhood types, and haul distances.
Sensitivity of response is noted for changes in size of daily task
assignment.
A more complex and realistic system is simulated in Model 3.
It involves an assigned task policy in a large urban area of many
residential subareas, each definable in one of four classifications.
The number of daily routes in each subarea is calculated as a function
of subarea neighborhood type, collection frequency, and haul distance.
Trucks are then assigned by number to subareas by days of the week.
Collection for a 6-day week in the entire area is then simulated
and a resume of the weeks activities is printed. The model is
structured for semi or triweekly collection frequencies, and can
simulate a system with or without a transfer station. Different
locations for final disposal sites or transfer stations can be cost
investigated and so compared. Many runs were made in the study with
the northwest quadrant of Baltimore as the area for which the collec-
tion activity was simulated. The response of major interest always
was unit cost in dollars per ton for the many combination of policies
and affecting variables.
S-6 SIMULATION AND ANALYSES OF A REFUSE COLLECTION SYSTEM. Quon, J. E.,
Charnes, A., and Wersan, S. J., Journal, Sanitary Engineering
Division, American Society of Civil Engineers, 91:17, 1965.
The article contains a detailed, computerized analysis of a
municipal refuse collection system. The main objective of the
computations with the simulation program developed by the researchers
was to point out the relationships of the several significant vari-
ables involved in the functioning of a refuse collection system.
The simulation method of analysis allows an economical means of
investigating changes in the operations of a refuse collection system
without resorting to actual field trials. The parameters to be
considered in the simulation of the daily route of refuse collection
are:
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1. number of hours needed to complete assigned task;
2. frequency of trips to the disposal site;
3. overall collection, pickup, and haul efficiencies;
4. truck capacity;
5. service density;
6. average and variability in the quantities of refuse
produced daily;
7. haul distance;
8. frequency of service;
9. number of unloading docks at the disposal site.
The report used charts, graphs, equations, diagrams and a
flow sheet to explain the process which was used.
S-7 MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLID WASTE COLLECTION. Marks,'D. H. ,
and Liebman, J. C., Public Health Service Publication No. 2104,
Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970.
S-8 MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF SOLID WASTE COLLECTION POLICIES.
Truitt, M. M., Liebman, J. C., and Kruse, C. W., v. 1 and 2,
Public Health Service Publication No. 2030. Washington, U.S.
Government Printing Office, 1970.
S-9 MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND COMPUTER SIMULATION FOR DESIGNING
MUNICIPAL REFUSE COLLECTION AND HAUL SERVICES. Wersan, S.,
Quon, J., and Charnes, A., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
1971. (Distributed by National Technical Information Service,
as PB-208 154.)
S-10 SATELLITE VEHICLE WASTE COLLECTION MODEL APPLICATION. Perkins,
R. A., j-n Satellite Vehicle Systems for Solid Waste Collection;
Evaluation and Application. Cincinnati, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, 1971. (Distributed by National Technical
Information Service, as PB-197 931.)
With a knowledge of the collection frequency, the housing
density, and the average dwelling unit lot size, the model can
be used to accurately estimate the collection time necessary to
Service any given number of dwelling units in any given community.
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S-ll SOLID WASTE COLLECTION SYSTEM DESIGN AND OPERATIONTHE WICHITA
FALLS DEMONSTRATION. Roark, J. J., APWA Reporter, 36(12):20-21,
December 1969.
The data collection system developed by the City of Wichita
Falls, Texas, the results obtained and anticipated in the develop-
ment of analytical techniques through generation correlations,
optimization methodology, and a mathematical management model for
simulation of the total operation are described.
Industrial Waste Management
S-12 AN ECONOMIC APPROACH TO REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL WASTE MANAGEMENT.
Dysart, Benjamin C. Ill, Clemson University, S. C. Department of
Environmental Systems Engineering. Paper presented at 24th Purdue
Ind. Waste Conf., Purdue University, May 6-8, 1969. Purdue
University Engineering Extension Series No. 135, pp. 880-895.
An economic approach to regional industrial waste management
was presented. Two problem levels were considered; a resource
allocation problem for which waste assimilative capacity was
allocated among competing users and the objective was economic
efficiency with dissolved oxygen standards (DO) as constraints.
The second problem level consisted of investigating the response on
sensitivity of the minimum total system cost and the optimal manage-
ment policy to system variation. A hypothetical river basin system
consisting of three stream reaches or stayes in series with an indus-
trial waste outfall located at the upstream end of each stage was
used to illustrate the two problem levels. A dynamic programming
technique was found to be useful in determining the minimum-cost
management systems that met all constraints for a fixed system
configuration.
S-13 ECONOMICS OF CANNERY WASTE TREATMENT. Evenson, D. E., and Orlob,
G. T., Water and Sewage Works, 117(3):17, 19, 21, March-April 1970.
The use of a dynamic programming algorithm to investigate the
economics of cannery waste treatment was demonstrated.
S-14 AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF MUNICIPAL SEWER SURCHARGES ON
INDUSTRIAL WASTES. Ethridge, Don E., North Carolina Water Resources
Research Inst., Raleigh. (Available from NTIS as PB-195 981.)
Water Resources Research Institute, Report No. 41, November 1970.
This study analyzes the industrial response to sewer surcharges
(1) in a theoretical framework and (2) using two empirical estimation
procedures. The purpose is to develop and appraise alternative
methods of studying the response of specific industries. A synthetic
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or budgeting approach was used to estimate firm's responses for the
beet processing and poultry processing industries. It was estimated
that a typical beet processing plant would reduce its wasteload
discharged by 75 percent if faced with a surcharge of 2 cents per
pound of BOD (from 31,600 pounds of BOD (Biochemical Oxygen Demand)
per day with no surcharge to 7,770 pounds of BOD per day with a
surcharge of 2 cents per pound of BCD). The corresponding estimate
for a poultry processing plant was a reduction of 32 percent. It
was estimated that the elasticity of total pounds of BOD discharged
by beet processing plants with respect to the surcharge on BOD is
-.7 at a 'typical* surcharge of approximately 2 cents per pound
of BOD. The corresponding elasticity estimate for poultry pro-
cessing plants was estimated to be -.15. Regression analysis was
also used to estimate firms' responses for the poultry processing
industry. The resulting estimate of the elasticity of total pounds
of BOD discharged with respect to the surcharge was -.23.
S-15 SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL SOLID WASTE HANDLING. Morse, Norman,
and Roth, Edwin, Cornell Aeronautic Laboratory, Inc., U.S. Depart-
ment of HEW, Public Health Service Publication No. 2104, 1970.
This study develops a system analysis methodology for regional
solid waste management. Computer listings are included.
Regional Solid Waste Management
S-16 PROCEEDINGS NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT.
University of California, Davis Campus, 4-5 April 1966
Table of Contents:
1. The problem in perspective.
2. The problem in detail.
3. System analysis - a generalized approach to technology.
4. Understanding this new approach.
5. Application of the approach, the California Waste Management
Study.
6. Managing solid wastes for a better environment.
7. Legal facets of the solid wastes problem that must be integrated
into a management-science approach.
8. Planning facets of the solid wastes problem that must be inte-
grated into a management-science approach.
9. Political facets of the solid wastes problem that must be inte-
grated into a management-science approach.
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10. Business facets of the solid wastes problem that must be
integrated into a management-science approach.
11. Refuse industry facets of the solid wastes problem that must
be integrated into a management-science approach.
12. Government facets of the solid wastes problem that must be
integrated into a management-science approach.
13. One community's success.
14. Los Angeles county activities in refuse disposal.
15. Coordinating management science with other solid wastes
research.
16. The future.
S-17 REGIONAL SOLID WASTES MANAGEMENT - AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH. Rao,
S. Ananda, Presented at the 7th Annual meeting of the Western
Regional Science Association, San Diego, California (Accepted
for publication in the Annals of Regional Science) 2-4 February
1968.
The paper begins with a discussion of the general background,
and description of the factors which complicate solid wastes manage-
ment problems, and establishes the need for the study of the many
aspects of wastes management. The main factors complicating the
solid wastes management problem are the presently retarded state
of the technology of disposal and fragmented jurisdictional
approach to wastes management. The Regional Model is formulated
with reference to the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area as an
illustration. The framework, scope, and objectives of the model
are clearly specified with their due implications for empirical
work.
The long term objectives of the study were to formulate mathe-
matical models, to develop consistent and comparable information
on solid wastes generation and other economic variables, to deter-
mine the implications of wastes generation on land use planning, to
review the technology of transfer and disposal, and finally to
expand the concept of the regional approach and its ramifications
on private and public expenditure, jurisdictional conflicts, and
public interest.
The actual planning and design of the model and its data needs
have been finalized and are reported. The innovation of the concept
of the "Disposal Service Area" or "Functional Boundary" is made.
The empirical portion of the model currently is being investigated.
The portion of the study program relating to model formulation is
nearing completion.
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Solid Waste Projections
S-18 MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOP. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND WASTE LOAD PRO-
JECTION. Smith, E. T., and Blaster, R. E., EPA Region II Data
Systems Branch, New York, New York, 1972.
A series of mathematical models which combine quantitative
variables that are functions of time and space are used to predict
waste load volumes and treatment costs, by the ratio method of
forecasting, for the metropolitan area of the Delaware estuary,
including the cities of Trenton, New Jersey; Philadelphia, Pennsyl-
vania; and Wilmington, Delaware. Waste loads, costs, and benefits
resulting from pollution control are determined for 1975 and 2010.
S-19 SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS. (Preliminary Draft) Pre-
pared by FMC Machinery/Systems Group, Engineering Systems Division,
FMC Corporation (Santa Clara, California) for the City of San Jose
and County of Santa Clara (California), Document R-2697, 16 April
1968.
This is an excellent report on a survey made of solid wastes
sources and quantities in Santa Clara County. Important qualities
of the report from the standpoint of planners and individuals con-
cerned with operations research are:
1. The data given in the report are useable.
2. Seasonal waste factors are given.
3. Alternative site location patterns in Santa Clara County are
listed. (The patterns are based on the assumption that land-
fills would be used. The use of a different type of disposal
might result in different linages.)
4. The industrial waste factors are according to the Standard
Industrial code by two digits.
The report includes projections of the annual solid wastes
quantities expected in the years 1970, 1980, and 1990 by source and
geographic location. The work described is best summed by quoting
from the report:
"Potential incineration facility sites were selected for
system cost and environmental evaluation. Service areas
were defined for these selected facility sites when com-
bined in various numbers and ways to handle the solid
wastes of the county. Estimated refuse hauling costs
were computed for these various multi-site configurations."
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S-20 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF COMMERCIAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION.
DeGeare, T. U., Jr., and Ongerth, J. E., Journal of the
Sanitary Engineering Division Proceedings of the American
Society of Civil Engineers, December 1971, pp. 843-850.
The study was conducted to determine the variables that best
describe the quantities of solid wastes operated by selected types
of commercial enterprises. The study indicated that, for estima-
tive purposes, solid wastes generated from commercial establishments
can be mathematically related to characteristics of the establish-
ments under consideration.
S-21 JOBS, PEOPLE, AND LAND - BAY AREA SIMULATION STUDY. Center for
Real Estate and Urban Economics, Institute of Urban and Regional
Development, University of California, Berkeley, Special Report
No. 6, 1968.
The publication is concerned with the development of Bay Area
Simulation Study (BASS) Model No. Ill to serve as an extension and
modification of BASS Model No. II. The models were designed for
the purpose of forecasting land utilization and related waste disposal
in 13 counties of Northern California for the period 1965-2020.
The BASS model required the following major modifications of BASS II,
a prototype model: 1) An extension of the time horizon for employ-
ment and land-use estimates to the year 2020. 2) An extension of
the geographical area from nine counties to 13 counties. 3) Sub-
stantial additional data with respect to present employment and
land utilization. 4) Further analysis and experimentation with
the employment techniques used in BASS Model II. 5) Addition of
an industrial algorithm. 6) Revision of the BASS Residential Sub-
model to take into consideration the filtering process in the housing
inventory. 7) Refinements in the computer program to accommodate
the increases in data and in the time period covered by BASS Model
III. 8) More sophisticated methods of estimating changing land-use
coefficients over time.
The publication is a valuable source of information in the
development of the multipliers needed in estimating waste generation.
S-22 USE OF MATHEMATICAL PLANNING MODELS TO PREDICT INCINERATION REQUIRE-
MENTS. Bacher, J. H., and Ranard, E. D., in Proceedings; 1968
National Incinerator Conference, New York, May 5-8, 1968. American
Society of Mechanical Engineers, p. 1-11.
A series of models was developed for the State of Connecticut
and could form the basis for similar planning models in other states.
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S-23 METHODS OF PREDICTING SOLID WASTE CHARACTERISTICS. Boyd, G. B.,
and Hawkins, M. B., URS Research Company, San Mateo, California,
under Contract No. PH-86-68-98, EPA. (SW-23C.) (Washington,
U.S. Government Printing Office, 1971.)
The project summarized by this report involved a preliminary
design of a model for estimating and predicting the quantity and
composition of solid waste and a determination of the feasibility
of the model. The model estimates and predicts on the basis of
knowledge of materials and quantities before they become a part of
the solid waste stream, together with an understanding of the pro-
cess by which materials become solid waste. The model is especially
attractive for estimating and predicting the quantity and composi-
tion of commercial solid waste on a community-wide basis.
S-24 THE ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC REFUSE. Higginson, A. E. The Institute
of Public Cleansing, 1956.
The topics covered are: methods of testing; suggested mechanical
equipment for analysis of refuse; comparative costs in conducting
refuse analyses; results of conducted analyses; salvage potential
of domestic refuse; density tests; factors influencing output and
density figures; the need for further research into domestic refuse;
and long-range forecasting.
S-25 THE ROLE OF PACKAGING IN SOLID WASTE 1966 - 1976. Darnay, A. J.,
and Franklin, W. E., Public Health Service Publication No. 1855.
S-26 CURRENT AND FUTURE ROLE OF PLASTICS IN SOLID WASTE. Fulmer, M. E.,
and Testin, R. F., in Report of the role of plastics in solid
waste. New York, Society of the Plastics Industry, 1968,
p. 3-7.
As an aid to evaluating the present and future roles of plas-
tics in solid waste, forecasts of plastics-packaging usage were
made at three levels to represent 'low', 'high', and 'best' esti-
mates. A large spread between the 'high* and 'best1 (or most
realistic) estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty concerning
the future use of plasticsparticularly plastic bottles. The
probable major constituents of plastic are: polyethylene (38%),
polyvinyl chloride (32%), and polystyrene (21%). The total amount
of plastic waste disposed of in refuse currently is 3-1/4 billion
Ib. per year or about 1.5 percent of the total amount of refuse
generated. It has been predicted that the total volume of pack-
aging will increase by 50 percent in the next 10 years, and that
the plastics portion will double from 1 to 2 percent in that period.
The best estimate of plastic-milk-bottle penetration by 1976 is
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50 percent of the gallon and half-gallon containers. This repre-
sents a total potential volume increase of 0.37 billion cu ft per
year. This potential volume increase does not appear to be signi-
ficant since some compaction of plastic bottles will occur. A
recent FDA regulation regarding use of a PVC-PE copolymer for food-
contact applications indicates that the fraction of PVC in packaging
will probably increase.
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PESTICIDES
P-l MODEL ECOSYSTEM FOR THE EVALUATION OF PESTICIDE BIODEGRADABILITY
AND ECOLOGICAL MAGNIFICATION, Metcalf, R. L., Sangha, G. K., and
Kapoor, I. P. Environmental Science and Technology. Vol. 5, No. 8,
p. 709-713, August 1971.
A small laboratory model ecosystem was developed to study the
biodegradability of pesticides, and evaluated with radiolabeled
DDT, DDE, ODD and methoxychlor. The model ecosystem has a ter-
restrial-aquatic interface and a seven-element food chain. It
simulates the application of pesticides to crop plants and the
eventual contamination of the aquatic environment. Radiolabeled
DDT was accumulated in mosquito larvae, snails and fish as DDE,
ODD and DDT, and concentrated from 10,000 to 100,000 fold. C-14
DDE was concentrated 30,000- to 50,000-fold and stored with little
metabolism, while H-3 methoxychlor was readily metabolized to
mono- and di-OH derivatives and was stored at comparatively low
levels. The model ecosystem approach has considerable value for
studying the biodegradability and ecological fate not only of
new candidate pesticides, but also of industrial chemicals.
P-2 SYSTEMS APPROACH TO CONTROLLING PESTICIDE CONTAMINATION OF SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, Kilgore, W. W. University of California, School
of Agriculture, Davis, California.
The long-term objective of the San Joaquin Valley Project is
to develop a body of knowledge to help minimize the environmental
contamination attendant upon continued large-scale use of pesti-
cides in this heavily cultivated valley.
The San Joaquin Valley, the southern part of the central
valley of California, is ringed on three sides by mountains and is
drained by the San Joaquin River and its tributaries to the north,
then westward into San Francisco Bay. Within this partially en-
closed system lies one-third of California's farmland, including
the most extensive area of irrigated land in the U. S. About a
fifth of America's food table is grown here, but a part of this high
productivity of vegetables and other crops is achieved through
the annual application of one-seventh of the pesticides used in
the U. S.
This grant is for a one-year planning project that will (1)
establish a computerized data bank with the detailed information
on past and current pesticide use, (2) plan for investigations
of the incorporation of these toxic compounds into the biota, and
the degradation of these compounds left in the inorganic environ-
ment, and (3) begin the simulation modeling of the dispersal and
fate of the pesticides.
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RADIATION
Radiation in Water
R-l RADIOACTIVITY TRANSPORT IN WATER-MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION, White, A.
and Gloyna, E. F. Texas University, Austin, NTIS. ORO-19, 1970.
A mathematical model has been developed for routing a radio-
nuclide through a model river system. The capabilities include
the following characteristics: (1) it distributes radionuclide
activity by advective and dispersional mechanisms along the longi-
tudinal axis of the system; (2) it may be discretized into any
number of segments (vertical planes normal to the longtudinal
axis) as may be appropriate to describe spatial variations in
radionuclide activity; (3) it is capable of treating instantaneous,
continuous, or time-varying releases of radionuclide activity;
(4) it provides for a temporal description of radionuclide
activity through the system; and (5) it provides for sorp-
tion and desorption by both plants and bottom sediments.
R-2 THE DISPERSION OF A DECAYING EFFLUENT DISCHARGED CONTINUOUSLY
INTO A UNIFORMLY FLOWING STREAM, Ruthven, D. M. Water Research,
Vol. 5, No. 6, p. 343-352, June 1971.
The distribution of a decaying effluent, discharged continuously
from a point source into a uniformly flowing stream, is discussed in
terms of the diffusion equation which is reduced, by suitable
approximations to a two-dimensional partial differential equation.
The solution of this equation is presented and used to assess the
effect of transverse mixing on the B.O.D. profile for such a system.
An expression is derived for the mixing length (the downstream
distance which is required to ensure an approximately uniform
concentration of effluent across the river section). Equations
are developed to express the conditions under which the effects
of both longitudinal and transverse mixing are negligible and the
simple plug flow model is an acceptable approximation.
R-3 A METHOD TO DESCRIBE THE FLOW OF RADIOACTIVE IONS IN GROUND WATER,
Grove, D. B. Available from NTIS., Springfield, Va.
An equation based on instantaneous ion exchange and on a
linear adsorption isotherm predicts radioactive ionic concentra-
tions in groundwater systems as a function of time and position.
This equation accounts for radioactive decay, ion exchange, and
longitudinal hydraulic dispersion. Data necessary for solution
include groundwater velocity, ion-exchange distribution coefficient,
exchange ratioT and dispersion coefficient. The need for simplicity
dictates the use of an equilibrium concept rather than a rate
process to describe the ion-exchange reaction.
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Radiation in Air
R-4 AN EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING WORLD-WIDE DEPOSITION FROM
ATMOSPHERIC NUCLEAR DETONATIONS, Peterson, K. R. Health Physics
Journal, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 357-378, April 1970.
An empirical model is presented for estimating the surface
deposition of "world-wide" radioactivity from atmospheric nuclear
detonations given the yield, latitude, season and type of each
burst. The procedure is readily adaptable to computer calcu-
lation. The model is based primarily on injection-deposition
experience gained from the U.S. and U.S.S.R. nuclear tests in
1958. Use of the technique to estimate 90Sr deposition from
the 1961-62 tests shows the predictions are usually within a
factor of two of the observed deposition.
Radiation from Air to Water
R-5 A NUMERICAL MODEL FOR THE HYDROLOGIC TRANSPORT OF RADIOACTIVE
AEROSOLS FROM PRECIPITATION TO WATER SUPPLIES, Huff, D. D. and
Kruger, P. Stanford University, California, Department of Civil
Engineering. In: Isotope Techniques in the Hydrologic Cycle,
Geophysical Monograph Series, No. 11, American Geophysical Union,
p. 85-96, 1967.
Preparation is underway of a numerical model of the transport
of nuclear debris from the atmosphere by precipitation through
the surface-water portion of the hydrologic cycle. The model
collates the significant parameters involved, such as the physical
and chemical properties of biologically important radionuclides in
aerosols, their deposition by precipitation under Pacific coast
cyclonic conditions, and their movement through the catchment basin
during precipitation and runoff. The model is based upon the quan-
titative estimation of these parameters under conditions given by
an existing computer model which traces the movement of water
through the basin to predict the runoff hydrograph. The numerical
model should serve as an index of predictability for radionuclide
concentration in water supplies originating from atmospheric
sources and as a means to locate areas where additional numerical
knowledge of hydrologic processes is needed.
Radiation in Food and Water
R-6 SYSTEMS ECOLOGY, Goldstein, R. A. U. S. Atomic Energy Commission,
Ecological Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Systems ecology research is developing methods to further
man's understanding of the dynamic interrelations of organisms
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and the environments in which they live. Most of the research in-
volves simulating natural processes in either stochastic or deter-
ministic ways, so that useful predictions may be derived about en-
vironmental interactions. Systems ecology is attempting to per-
form environmental assessments that will help evaluate anti-pollu-
tion practices and devices. Systems engineering and operations
research continue to influence some of the basic approaches
suggested by ecologists. An immediate objective is to amass the
mathematical tools ecologists will need to attack environmental
problems at a level of sophistication that reflects the state of the
art in other disciplines. Current uses of systems techniques are
currently limited to studying small parts of ecosystems; however,
as more work is completed, the subsystems will become the starting
point for models of whole ecosystems.
Results: A computer program was written to simulate the
dynamic behavior of radionuclides in the environment in order to
predict the internal doses resulting from intakes of food and
water contaminated by power reactor waste releases. A Monte Carlo
simulation approach was used to demonstrate energy budgets for
predator-prey relationships in food chain dynamics. Parameter
quantification techniques, based on random search methods, were
used to quantify a process model based on transient behavior data.
Terrestrial Radiation
R-7 RADIONUCLIDE CYCLING IN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM, Reichle, D. E.
U. S. Atomic Energy Commission, Ecological Sciences Division,
Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Knowledge of the cycling of essential and nonessential
elements whose radionuclides are potential terrestrial contami-
nants is needed for the assessment of impact of nuclear tech-
nology on the landscape. These studies are providing data on
pathways and flows of radionuclides which complements efforts
whereby radionuclide tracer techniques are being used to deter-
mine fundamental ecological processes occurring in the environ-
ment. Research on processes and components of terrestrial eco-
systems emphasizes basic ecosystem processes as well as compara-
tive interpretation of the "unique" and "common" attributes of the
various aspects of the terrestrial landscape. Studies are under-
way in forest mesic ("Liriodendron tulipifera") and pasture
("Festuca Andropogon" grasslands) ecosystems. Emphasis has been
on the behavior of Csl37 but other tracers utilized include
N15, Ma22, Ca 45, Ca47, K42, P32 and P33 as well as research on
micronutrients such as Mn 54, Co60, Fe59 1131 and Cel44. The
tracers are used to identify and quantify ecosystem processes
such as productivity, soil-plant relations, animal food chains, and
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microbial decomposition. Analysis at the subsystem and system
level is permitting the development of ecosystem models that
will have predictive capability for the long-term movement of
nutrient elements and fission products in the environment.
Results: Litterfall, standing crop and decomposition data
were subjected to analysis and a compartment model developed
to describe the mass and mineral element dynamics of the
"Liriodendron" forest floor system. Subsystem models were
developed for grass foliage productivity, insect grazing and
Csl37 cycling in the forest cryptogams. Similar compartment
models were applied to energy flow, Ca, K and Na fluxes through
vegetation and arthropod components of the grassland ecosystem.
Hickory and black gum trees are accumulators of Cel44 and Co60,
respectively, but turnover of these radionuclides is slow
because of strong chemical bonds in the xylem.
Nuclear Power Plants
R-8 YEAR 2000 MODEL, Requested information about the model has not
been supplied.
R-9 OAK RIDGE MODEL, Binford, F., Oak Ridge, Presented at the 12th
Air Cleaning Conference. Requested information about the model
has not been supplied.
R-10 A METEOROLOGICAL STUDY OF POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC CONTAMINATION FROM
MULTIPLE NUCLEAR SITES, Pack, D. H. and Hosier, C. R., Proceedings
2nd UN Conference on Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, Vol. 18 (1958).
Data Source
R-ll BIOENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL DATA AND INFORMATION CENTER IN
SUPPORT OF BIOENVIRONMENTAL AND RADIOLOGICAL SAFETY FEASIBILITY
STUDIES, Davidson, R. S., Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus,
Ohio.
The Bioenviromnental and Ecological Information and Data
Center (BEDIC) was occasioned by the extensive background infor-
mation requirements needed for planning and management of Bio-
environmental and Radiological-Safety Feasibility Field Data
Collection and Evaluation Studies relating to the nuclear excava-
tion considerations of the Interoceanic Sea Level Canal Study (SLC),
The criteria for data collection and evaluation as well as the
selection of competent personnel and institutions required the
study of the ecological literature and data pertinent to the
Central American humid tropics.
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BEDIC consists of an information and data storage and
retrieval system with computer programs capable of coping with
ecological, radioecological, and bioenvironmental research require-
ments. The capabilities of BEDIC serve the SLC program including
a study of the possible ecological impact of interoceanic mixing,
a study of the Bioenvironmental and Radiological Safety requirements
for the AEC-Supplementary Test Site nuclear testing program, the
development of a comprehensive review of the biological implications
of tritium and various field survey and feasibility studies of
AEC-Plowshare Programs. The cycling and transport of radionuclides
in complex ecosystems have received major emphasis. The Center
currently consists of approximately 7,000 documents and biblio-
graphic citations. BEDIC screens over 150 ecological and bioenviron-
mental periodicals and approximately 50 secondary publications
on a regular basis.
In addition to continuation of the effects listed, the future
activities of BEDIC will provide an ecological information and
data base for remote inquiry by AEC. Because of extremely limited
funding on this program, service to outside research investigators
without compensation has not been possible.
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NOISE
Urban Noise
N-l A COMMUNITY NOISE SURVEY OF MEDFORD, MASSACHUSETTS, Technical
Report No. DOT-TSC-OST-72-1, 1961.
N-2 THE MECHANICS OF FORECASTING THE COMMUNITY NOISE IMPACT OF A
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM, German, J. R. Rand Corporation, Santa
Monica, California, p. 20, November 1971, AD-737-684.
N-3 SCALES FOR ASSESSING THE NOISE ENVIRONMENT, Gordon, C. G.,
Engineering Materials and Design, Vol. 14, No. 11, p. 1107,
1971.
N-4 A CRITICAL, HISTORIC SURVEY OF METHODS'OF MEASUREMENT AND
ASSESSMENT OF ANNOYANCE CAUSED BY NOISE, Transcript of the
South African Institute of Electrical Engineering, Vol. 62,
No. 9, p. 149-201, 1971. Ann. Telecommunications. Vol. 244912,
1972.
N-5 THEORETICAL MODEL FOR STEADY-STATE URBAN NOISE, Shaw, E. A. G.
and Olson, N. 77th Meeting of the Acoustical Society of America,
April 1969, Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, Vol. 46
NO. 99(A), 1969.
N-6 THEORY OF STEADY-STATE URBAN NOISE FOR IDEAL HOMOGENEOUS CITY,
Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, Vol. 51, p. 1781-
1793, 1972.
Airport Noise Forecasting
N-7 FORECASTING NOISE ANNOYANCE AROUND AIRPORTS AND PERSPECTIVE
REMEDIES, Alexandra, A. April 1970, N71-13548.
N-8 NOISE EXPOSURE FORECAST CONTOURS FOR EXPECTED 1985 and 1990
OPERATIONS AT SEVEN U.S. AIRPORTS. Bolt, Beranek and Newman,
Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts, January 1971, AD-722365.
N-9 NOISE EXPOSURE FORECAST CONTOURS FOR 1967, 1970 AND 1975 OPERATIONS
AT SELECTED AIRPORTS, Bishop, D. E. and Simpson, M. A. Bolt,
Beranek and Newman, Inc. Van Nuys, California, September 1970,
AD-712646.
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Traffic Noise
N-10 PHYSICAL SIMULATION OF ROAD NOISE, Peterson, R. G. General
Electric Company, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
A study of the environmental impact of traffic noise from a
new highway may be required before construction is authorized. An
analytical evaluation of traffic noise can be made in relatively
open areas, but such calculations can become impractical when the
effects of traffic noise are to be evaluated within buildings or
around obstacles in the landscape. A physical simulation of the
traffic noise from the proposed road can be performed by playing
back, at the site of the new road, a recording of traffic noise
that has been made at an existing highway. A mathematical model
has been developed to design and evaluate the simulation of a line
source of sound (the proposed road) by one or more point sources
of sound (the loudspeakers broadcasting the recorded highway
noise). Factors considered in this model are (1) fall-off in
intensity due to beam spreading from point and line sources,
(2) frequency-dependent exponential attenuation with distance,
and (3) geometries of recording site and of play-back site. The
computerized model compares intensities expected from the proposed
road with intensities from the speakers in terms of speaker place-
ment. The model will be described, and its use in a particular
field situation will be discussed.
N-ll INVESTIGATION OF HIGHWAY DESIGN FOR MINIMIZATION OF NOISE BY
APPLICATION OF MODELS, Soffel, A. R. and Van Houten, J. J.
Advanced Technology Center, Inc., Dallas, Texas.
Preliminary experimentation which indicates the feasibility
of examining noise propagation from various highway geometries
by use of models is discussed. The rationale of his modeling
technique is described. Noise propagation from various highway
configurations is being compared on a full scale, and model
scale basis. Studies include an examination of the effect of
sound absorption by landscape on the results obtained from models.
In addition, the representation of the speed, volume and density
of highway traffic is being investigated for modeling purposes.
A number of geometries have been selected for these investigations.
One configuration includes a freeway interchange.
N-12 URBAN TRAFFIC NOISE: STRATEGY FOR AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT.
Report of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and
Development. Consultative Group on Transportation Research,
Paris, France, August 1970.
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Sources and characteristics of urban traffic noises are given
and their effects on humans are listed. Control of urban traffic
noise is discussed with reference to modifications in vehicular
design, traffic operations and urban architecture. Current
administrative and legislative practices and directives in various
member countries are reviewed. The Consultative Group on Trans-
portation Research of Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and
Development makes several recommendations for the role of govern-
ment relative to vehicle noise, traffic noise and urban environ-
ment, economics of noise abatement research and development, and
international cooperation.
N-13 EVALUATION OF NOISE FROM FREELY FLOWING TRAFFIC, Johnson, D. R.
and Saunders E. G. Journal of Sound Vibration, Vol. 6, p. 287-
309, 1968.
N-14 MEASUREMENT OF TRAFFIC NOISE ON CONNECTICUT HIGHWAYS. Final Report,
CBS Laboratories, CBS Project 6058, December 1969.
N-15 STATISTICAL STUDY OF TRAFFIC NOISE. APS-476, Division of
Phys., Natural Resources Council of Canada, 1970.
N-16 TRAFFIC NOISE, Stephenson, R. J. and Vulkan, G. H. Journal of
Sound Vibration, Vol. 7, p. 247-262, 1968.
Effects of Noise on Man
N-17 PREDICTION OF EFFECTS OF NOISE ON MAN, Myer, K. D. Stanford
Research Institute, California, 1968.
The major basic deleterious effects of noise on man are
(1) masking of speech, (2) damage to hearing, and (3) perceived
noisiness or unwantedness. Present knowledge permits accurate
quantitative prediction from spectral measures of a noise and
the effects of the noise on the understandability of speech and
on temporary and permanent deafness. Methods for the quantitative
prediction from spectral measures of noise and the basic effects of
noise on perceived noisiness and behavior of people have been
developed to the point that standardization of these methods is
perhaps possible.
N-18 PHYSIOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ADJUSTMENT TO NOISE, Kryter, K. D.
Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California.
The mjijor objective of the study is to determine to what
extent persons, of somewhat different personality "types"
219
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physiologically and psychologically adapt over several months to
near daily exposures to various steady-state and intermittent
background noise. The effect of the noises upon learning and
performance of certain mental tasks will also be studied. The
results of the studies should contribute valuable information
for the estimation of the present or potential detrimental effect,
if any, of environmental noise upon the mental health and general
well-being of people.
Industrial Noise Leve_ls_
N-19 STUDY OF OUTSIDE NOISE GENERATED BY INDUSTRIAL PLANTS, Senko, A.
Goodfriend Ostergaard, Cedar Knolls, New Jersey.
As many industrial plants as possible will be surveyed and
their current noise levels defined. As many sources of noise
as possible will be identified and their current noise levels
defined. In reporting the noise levels measured, the following
information will be included: (1) Actual geometry of microphone
placement (including directionality effects), (2) Sound pressure
levels in 1/3-octave bands (if available) or octave bands. Reduc-
tion of spectral data to dB(A) and where possible data indicating
attenuation of sound level with distance.
The human related problems associated with the subject noise
sources will be identified. The coverage will be in the form of
indicating the typical effects of noise. Where possible, the
groups or organizations responsible for initiation of the noise
abatement programs, i.e., government, industry, labor organiza-
tion, consumer, etc. will be identified.
The state-of-the-art of the application of noise abatement
technology to the subject sources of noise will be assessed and
trends will be identified. Existing noise standards and/or
specifications relating to sources will be compiled. This
reported information will include: (1) Reduction levels being
achieved or anticipated in present programs, (2) Methods of
approach, (3) Program pay-offs, (4) Plans for further reduction
of noise, (5) Determination of what noise reduction can be
demonstrated on equipment for which minimal or no noise reduc-
tion technology is presently being applied.
N-20 HOW TO ESTIMATE PLANT NOISES, Heitner, Irving, Hydrocarbon
Processing: 8 pages, December 1968.
Methods designed to help obtain an estimate of expected noise
levels in industry are discussed. A number of specific types of
noises are reported, with formulas for deriving the amount of
noise generated by each.
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GENERAL
General Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling
G-l THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAND USE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION,
Croke, E. J., Croke, K. G., Kennedy, A. S., and Hoover, L.J.,
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, March 1972.
A comprehensive land-use-oriented environmental data system, com-
bined with regional development and environmental quality planning
models, is not yet available.
Although no comprehensive planning tool has yet been developed,
considerable work has been done on many of its major component
parts. Among the more critical subassemblies which would be
integrated within a comprehensive environmental planning model are:
1) An econometric model which includes such elements as export and
local demand for goods and services; demand for the factors of pro-
duction; investment in manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors;
and governmental fiscal activities. The Bell (1967) model of Mass-
achusetts and L'Esperance (1969) model of Ohio are typical. A
dynamic input/output submodel would provide the required disaggre-
gation by producing sectors, and estimate transactions among sectors.
2) A multisectoral demographic model which describes births, deaths,
migration and total population in terms of the observed inter- and
intraregional behavior of these parameters. Models of this kind are
described by Keyfitz (1968) and Rogers (1968).
3) A labor force supply model which reflects the size and structure
of the regional labor force in terms of its origin, growth, and parti-
cipation rates disaggregated by sector, occupation, skill, age and
sex. Elements of such a model have been discussed by Mincer (1966) and
and Bowen and Finegan (1965).
4) A land use and spatial allocation model which describes or simu-
lates the distribution of industrial, commercial and residential
activities. Lowry (1964), Garin (1966), and Cripps and Foot (1969)
have developed versions of direct allocation models, while Alonso
(1960), Muth (1969) and others have proposed models which emphasize
economic competition for land and markets. Forrester's (1969) model
is a notable example of a simulation designed to reflect the dynamical
aspects of the urban development process.
5) Resource distribution models, such as the water resource manage-
ment models described by the Harvard Water Resources Group (1963), the
HYDRO water resource management code (Bugliarello, 1962) and Cohen's
(1970) power demand allocation model.
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6) Multimodal transportation demand models which simulate trip
generation and distribution, modal choice and traffic assignment processes,
The Baumol-Quant "abstract mode" model (1962) is an example of a statis-
tical, multimodal origin-destination, trip generation model which reflects
short-run economic influences.
7) Waste product generation and distribution models such as the
multisectoral, PLANTSIM model and the "integrated puff" atmospheric dis-
persion model (Roberts, Croke, jjit al. , 1970). Pyatt's (1970) Water
Quality Model is typical of equivalent computational tools for water
resource management planning.
In a few cases, some of the more critical components of the compre-
hensive regional model have been integrated to create major "subassem-
blies." A prime example of the latter is Czamanski's (1968) econometric-
demographic model of Nova Scotia, which combines a recursive, multi-
sectoral econometric model with an age and sex specific cohort survival
model. Another example is the Susquehanna river basin regional model
(Hamilton et al., 1969), tahich combines a crude but comprehensive
planning and forecasting tool.
G-2 ECOLOGICAL MODELS AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, D. S. P. Puccini, Water
Resources Bulletin. Vol. 7, No. 6, p 1144-1152, December 1971.
The state-of-the-art of ecological modelling was assessed with a
view towards developing a frame work for the investigation and
analysis of environmental systems. The theoretical background of
ecological systems analysis, types of ecological models, a recom-
mended approach for environmental studies and a conceptual outline
for the analysis of polluted environmental systems were discussed.
Examples of ecological models included the Stanford Watershed Model
and Custer and Krutchkoff's stochastic estuarine model. Analytical
models can best design and implement potential solutions to resource
management problems. The conceptual framework presented as an
approach to environmental studies and the analysis of polluted
environmental systems utilized Norbert Weiner's classical cybernetic
feedback loop.
G-3 PHYSICAL MODELING APPLIED TO COASTAL ZONE POLLUTION PROBLEMS, H. B.
Simmons, J. Harrison, R. A. Boland, and D. B. Mathis, Army Engineer
Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, Mississippi, Miscellaneous
Paper Y-72-2, March 1972.
Pollution problems are more serious in coastal zones than in most
other areas because they are desirable locations for residential,
commercial, and industrial development; they provide natural
locations for man's leisure and nature-related activities; and they
appear as an inexhaustible sink for domestic and industrial sewage.
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It is necessary to determine effects of pollution before pollution
takes place. This requires a predictive capability. One tool used
to make this predictive capability more meaningful is physical scale
modeling - problem-solving technique that entails development, con-
struction, verification, and testing of a scale model of a particular
prototype. Different types of physical models are discussed with
emphasis on determining extent and duration of pollution within an
area. Specific examples include a sedimen-trapping plan in Savannah
Harbor, effect of an inlet across Sandy Hook in New York Harbor, and
pollutant dispersion from two sources in Brunswick Harbor. Laboratory
ecosystem modeling is described as a planning tool specifically designed
to predict chemical, biological, and ecological phenomena.
G-4 ECONOMIC ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS IN THE CHARLESTON METROPOLITAN REGION: AN
INPUT - OUTPUT STUDY, Eugene Laurent and James C. Kite, Water Resources
Research Institute, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, April 1971.
A general model based on input - output analysis was developed to
incorporate environmental as well as pecuniary values into manage-
ment systems for natural resources. The completed model was used
to quantify economic - ecological linkages in the Charleston, South
Carolina area. Further, resource or environmental - income multi-
pliers were generated and used to indicate the direct and indirect
impacts, both on the economic and ecologic systems of various types
of economic growth, as well as alternative management strategies.
G-5 BACKGROUND FOR THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION,
Allen V. Kneese, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C., Swedish
Journal of Economics, Vol.73, No 1, Mar 1971, p 1-24.
The scientific and technological aspects of environmental problems
are discussed in order to complement and complete the economic
approach to these difficulties. Global and regional effects of
environmental pollution are presented individually, then tied
together in a 'materials balance* approach. In the discussion of
the global effects of pollution, meteorological, hydrological and
atmospheric difficulties are analyzed, including changes in carbon
dioxide, waste energy rejection into the atmosphere, and toxic
agents in coastal waters and oceans. A separate section on water-
borne residuals deals with degradable residuals and persistent
pollutants while the discussion on airborne residuals encompasses
types and sources of such residuals, atmospheric assimilative
capacity, and property damages. Technological external diseconomies
are accepted as a fact, with residuals generation as an inherent
part of production and consumption. Various alternatives are pre-
sented for both air and water pollution, incorporating a discussion
of economic analysis to choose the optimal method for coping with
such environmental difficulties.
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G-6 THE ECONOMICS OF POLLUTION AND THE INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO
ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING, Gerhard Kade, Technische Hochschule,
Darmstadt (West Germany), International Social Science Journal, Vol
XXII, No 4, p 565-575, 1970.
Present methods of dealing with pollution and proposals of alter-
native strategy to environmental planning are considered. The
author discussed traditional planning models and points out their
inadequacies and implementation problems. The use of social costs
and externalities in order to make an assessment of social loss
attributable to air and water pollution is discussed. The author
concludes the economist's use of taxes and subsidies as a solution
to pollution is overly technological and neglects the social and
political aspects of the problem. An interdisciplinary planning
approach is presented to deal with environmental pollutants with
the first step involving problem identification and the recognition
of the interrelationship among pollutants. The second phase deals
with the organization of the planning process and finally the
solution to the problem and means of implementation are considered.
This planning approach is designed to bridge the gap between program
formulation and implementators through the continual involvements of
environmental planners in all phases of analysis.
G-7 MODELS OF INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION CONTROL IN URBAN PLANNING, Tinansky,
Dennis P., Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. Publication No. P-4758,
48 pages, Jan 1972.
A formulation of air and water quality control models for a hypo-
thetical regional economy and an evaluation of the possible results
of different policies of pollution control enforcement are presented.
Emphasis is on a cost-benefit analysis of the treatment of industrial
waste emissions. The environmental quality standards define maximally
allowed pollution loads at particular points in the atmosphere and
streams. Implications of these standards in the model focus upon two
related goals: A policy objective, which estimates optimal degrees
of waste abatement; and an efficiency objective, which determines
the optimal allocation of scarce resources in the economy. The
development of models to identify and measure relevant economic
impacts is necessary to improve comprehension and to devise meaning-
ful policies on protecting the environment.
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G-8 POLLUTION PRICES IN A GENEEAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL. California Univ.,
San Diego, La Jolla, Dept. of Economics. Ruff, L.E. Available
from the National Technical Information Service as COM-721 10118,
Institute of Marine Resources Ref. No. 7203, Sea Grant Publication
No. 12, May 1970.
Many pressing pollution problems can be solved efficiently
using traditional economic analysis. It is argued that benefit-
cost analysis and direct regulation are totally inadequate tools for
the more complex pollution problems. A political-economic process
is proposed and outlined. Ultimately, institutions must be designed
which will allow explicit political decisions where required, allow
economic calculation where possible, and provide sufficient feed-
back between the economic and political mechanisms so that the
system is responsive, stable, and efficient. A simple extension
of standard general equilibrium models is used to analyze general
equilibrium with pollution prices. A price system may be able to
reduce pollution efficiently with a minimum of information and
interference, and provide estimates of costs of further reduction,
allowing political decisions about desired pollution levels to be
made simply and rationally.
G-9 WASTE GENERATION: PRESENT AND FUTURE. Bower, B.T., Larson, G.P.,
Michaels, A., et al. In Waste Management; generation and disposal
of solid, liquid and gaseous wastes in the New York region; a
report of the second regional plan. New York, Regional Plan
Association, Inc., Mar. 1968. p. 37-44.
The economic data for this study consisted of the Regional
Plan Association's population and employment projections to the
year 2000. These projections were made for sub-areas of the region
according to Standard Industrial Classification categories. Two kinds
of wastes are given special attention; the abandoned or junked
vehicle, and radioactive wastes. In developing the analysis four
major factors were considered: (1) the technology of production
processes; (2) product mix; (3) the type of raw material inputs;
and (4) the controls on waste discharge. The costs of waste
management include such items as annual charges on the investment
in on-site and collective waste reduction facilities, operation and
maintenance costs for these facilities, cost of land for landfill,
effluent charges, paid capital, and O&M costs of quality monitoring
networks, and costs of performance checking. The impact of waste
discharges must be assessed. This requires the development of
mathematical models which interrelate the variables. The effluent
control policies adopted by the relevant governmental agencies are
part of the waste management system.
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G-10 TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM RESEARCH PLANNING: A SYSTEM APPROACH.
Coulman, G.A., Stephenson, S., and Murphy, L., Michigan State
University, East Lansing, Michigan, Paper No. 82a.
Several component system abstractions of a terrestrial eco-
system are presented. The philosophical foundations are discussed
suggesting the implicit assumptions. An introduction to free body
systems decomposition is presented. A time table for free body
component research and program methodology is presented.
G-ll A NUMERICAL MODEL OF HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS INFLUENCED BY A
POLLUTED ENVIRONMENT. Parton, W. J., and Eddy, A., Preprint,
American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass., p. 248-252, 1970.
(presented at the National Conference on Weather Modification,
2nd, Santa Barbara, Calif., April 6-9, 1970), APTIC No. 40512.
A numerical model of the urban-rural ecosystem has been for-
mulated with the objective of simulating interactions between the
various segments of the total ecosystem. A decision making
executive routines coordinates the interactions between five
submodels, comprising an atmospheric model, hydrology model, city
model, zoology model, and botany model. The atmospheric model must
predict variations in the weather for periods of time up to 30 years.
The parameters predicted include: wind speed and direction, rainfall,
relative humidity, cloud cover, temperature, radiation, and air
pollution. Air pollution is determined at any point in the field
by considering dispersion from multiple point sources. The model
suggested by Pasquill and modified by Gifford is used to estimate
pollution concentrations as a function of distance from the point
sources. This model uses the wind direction and speed, stability,
and solar angle to predict the pollution dispersion. The atmos-
pheric model has provisions for modifying the rainfall frequency and
intensity as a function of air pollution and heat island effect.
There are also provisions to simulate the effect of artificial
weather modifications on the whole ecosystem. The parameters
predicted by the hydrology model include: evaporation of water from
soil and lake surface, storm runoff, soil moisture, lake level, water
pollution, and river hydrograph. The urban model is primarily
concerned with population dynamics of the city. The zoology model
consists of man and dairy and beef cattle as consumers. The growth
of grass, alfalfa, and wheat are included in the botany model.
Future work on this model will be directed toward increasing the
realism in the ecosystem components.
G-12 FORECASTING WITH ECONOMETRIC MODELS: AN EVALUATION. Stekler, H.O.,
Econometrica, Vol. 36, No. 3-4, p. 437-463, July-Oct. 1968.
226
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This paper attempts to determine the ability of existing econo-
metric models to generate quantitative forecasts of aggregate econ-
omic activity. The models evaluated are the Klein Quarterly Model,
the QBE Model, the Fromm Model, the Lice Model, the Friend and Jones
Models, and the Friend and Taubman Model. The main characteristics
of each model are reviewed and the variety of methods that may be
utilized to evaluate these models are discussed. The combination
of all the results suggests that econometric models have not been
entirely successful in forecasting economic activity. The results
could be more meaningful if all the models had been tested on data
for the same period or if those predictions had been compared with
projections which had been generated by other techniques. The
growing role of econometric models in water resource planning makes
this article relevant to the water area.
Pollution Control Impact
G-13 STUDY OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL ON THE IRON FOUNDRY
INDUSTRY. Part 1, Executive Summary. A. T. Kearney and Co.
U. S. National Technical Information Service, Government Reports
Announcements, 72(8): 40, April 25, 1972.
The economic impact of pollution control measures in the iron
foundry industry is examined. Topics discussed include: industry
structure, supply, demand, and various aspects of the economic impact
such as price increases, factor dislocations within the industry,
effects on related industries, industry dislocations, locations of
dislocations, compensatory factors, net employment impact, and the
impact on local economies.
G-14 THE EFFECTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL ON THE NONFERROUS METALS INDUSTIRES,
ALUMINUM. Part 1, Introduction and executive Summary, Charles River
Assoc., Inc., U.S. National Technical Information Serivce. Govern-
ment Reports Announcements, 72(8): 42, April 25, 1972.
A report on the economic impact of pollution controls on the
aluminum industry summarizes a study on the broad profile of the
aluminum industry and the economic effects of pollution controls.
G-15 THE EFFECTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL ON THE NONFERROUS METALS INDUSTRIES,
COPPER. Part 1, Introduction and Executive Summary, Charles River
Assoc., Inc., U.S. National Technical Information Service, Government
Reports Announcements, 72(8): 41, April 25, 1972.
A report on the economic impact of pollution controls on the
copper industry summarizes a study providing a broad profile of the
copper industry and outlining the economic effects of pollution
controls.
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G-16 THE EFFECTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL ON THE NONFERROUS METALS INDUSTRIES,
LEAD. Part 1, Introduction and Executive Summary, Charles River
Assoc., Inc., U.S. National Technical Information Service, Govern-
ment Reports Announcements, 72(8): 41, April 25, 1972.
A report on the economic impact of pollution controls on the lead
industry summarizes a broader study, provides a broad profile of the
lead industry and outlines the economic effects of controls.
G-17 THE EFFECTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL ON THE NONFERROUS METALS INDUSTRIES,
ZINC. Part 1, Introduction and Executive Summary, Charles River
Assoc, Inc., U.S. National Technical Inforamtion Service, Government
Reports Announcements, 72(8): 41, April 25, 1972.
A report on the economic impact of pollution controls on the
zinc industry summarizes a larger study providing a broad profile
of the zinc industry and outlining the economic effects of pollution
controls.
G-18 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ON THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLE
CANNING AND FREEZING INDUSTRIES. Part 1, Executive Summary, Dunlap
and Assoc., Inc., Agricultural Div., U.S. National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Government Reports Announcements, 72(8): 39, April
25, 1972.
Necessary adjustments in the fruit and vegetable processing
industries due to the implementation of environmental controls are
summarized in terms of costs, capital, requirements, profits,
industry structure and location, employment, product prices, and
regional and national economic impacts. The supply, demand, price
and operating requirements of these industries are described and
analyzed and then the microeconomic relationships among representative
firms are evaluated. Based on the microeconomic analysis, a prognosis
of the microeconomic impact at the industry level is made.
G-19 THE LEATHER INDUSTRY: A STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF POLLUTION CONTROL
COSTS. Volume 1, Executive Summary, Urban Systems Research and
Engineering, Inc., U.S. National Technical Information Service,
Government Reports Announcements, 72(8): 40, April 25, 1972.
A summary of the impact of pollution control costs on the leather
tanning and finishing industries in the US is presented. Recent
trends in production, employment, and product acceptability are
reviewed along with current and planned pollution control expendi-
tures. Industry trends and the relative importance of abatement
costs to the future of the industry are also discussed.
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G-20 THE CEMENT INDUSTRY: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS.
Volume 1, Executive Summary, Boston Counsulting Group, Inc., U.S.
National Technical Information Service, Government Reports Announce-
ments, 72(8): 40, April 25, 1972.
The economic impact of pollution control on the cement industry
is summarized. The structure of the industry and the areas that
will bear the major impact of abatement, such as prices, employment,
and plant shutdowns, are discussed.
G-21 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ANTICIPATED PAPER INDUSTRY POLLUTION, ABATEMENT
COSTS. Part 1, Executive Summary, Arthur D. Little, Inc., U.S.
National Technical Information Service, Government Reports Announce-
ments, 72(8): 39, April 25, 1972.
The economic impact of the implementation of air and water
pollution control measures in the paper and related industries is
examined. The intent is to provide information that can be used in
the formulation of federal policy for pollution abatement in those
industries through 1976. Industry structure, profitability trend,
price impact, mill shutdowns, employment and other aspects are
discussed.
G-22 ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS ON THE
BAKERY INDUSTRY, Part 1, Ernst and Ernst, U.S. National Technical
Information Service, Government Reports Announcements, 72(8): 42,
April 25, 1972.
Pertinent industry structure and trends and the results of
quantitative and qualitative examination of the economic impact
of pollution control expenditures in the bakery industry are
summarized.
G-23 MODELS FOR INVESTIGATION OF INDUSTRIAL RESPONSE TO RESIDUALS MANAGE-
MENT ACTIONS. Russell, C.S., The Swedish Journal of Economics,
Vol. 73, No. 1, March 1971, p. 134-156.
It is argued that, for purposes of residuals management
decisions, it is necessary to go beyond models that stress end-of-
pipe treatment and a single receiving medium. Doubts are presented
concerning the cost-of-discharge-reduction approach because it
ignores the laws of conservation of energy and mass. The model used
to investigate industrial response to residuals management policies
reflects both the interconnections between residual forms and dis-
charge media implied by the conservation of mass and energy and the
opportunities available for the reduction of residuals generation
in production. A description of the firm's decision-making process
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concerning residuals discharges is given and then modified to a form
solvable by linear programming algorithms. An example is presented
of the application of the linear residuals response model to the
petroleum industry. The use of models of industrial response to
residual management action for regional residuals management is
considered.
G-24 TECHNOLOGICAL EXTERNALITIES AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION. Washington
Univ., Seattle, Schall, L.D., Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 79,
No. 5, p. 983-1001, September-October 1971.
The effects on resource allocation of technological externali-
ties wihtin a given industry are examined within the framework of a
two-good, two-factor, static model. The technological externality
enters in the form of an 'unpriced factor' such as air pollutants,
fish in a communal lake, or unpatented innovations. This analysis
differs from the standard theoretical approach in that it (1) abandons
the assumption that competitive production is necessarily on society's
production frontier, and thus (2) explicitly recognizes the difference
between competitive and Pareto-optimal product transformation sche-
dules. These transformation schedules will differ, with the one
exception occurring when all firms impose reciprocal externalities
that are equal at the margin for all firms. Consequently, the
standard generalizations regarding relative resource use may not
hold. For example, air pollution may be greater under conditions of
competition. Furthermore, the traditional results in comparing the
efficiency of monopoly and competition in an industry with technolo-
gical externalities may be incorrect if the competitive and optimal
transformation schedules differ. The orthodox approach is seen to
be more misleading under conditions of external diseconomies than
under conditions of external economies.
Ecological Data
G-25 INTRAMETROPOLITAN RESIDENTAIL MOBILITY. Vanarsdol, M.D., Univ. of
Southern California, Graduate School, Los Angeles, California.
The objectives of this research on intrametropolitan residential
mobility are: to determine the effects of past and present residences
upon subsequent mobility plans, choices and behaviors; to specify
the social and psychological factors which interact with residence
histories to generate mobility attitudes and behaviors; to specify
how changes in urban environments influence mobility patterns. The
data for this research includes interviews obtained in 1961 and 1962,
census information, and information on environmental hazards in the
Los Angeles-Long Beach, and the Anaheim-Garden Grove-Santa Ana
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Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area. The interview data includes
residence history, information on the family life cycle and famil-
ism, social mobility and aspirations, perceptions of the residential
environment and residence needs and aspirations, social and locality
participation. Neighborhood characteristics of population and
housing are available from census tapes. Environmental hazards data
include information on brush fires, floods and slides, air pollution,
air traffic noise, and juvenile delinquency. Thus, the researchers
will be able to integrate demographic, ecological and social psy-
chological perspectives in the study of metropolitan residential
mobility.
G-26 NEW ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SERVICES AND PUBLICATIONS FROM NOAA.
The U.S. Dept. of Commerce's Environmental Data Service (EDS)
has initiated a new, single-contact, multidisciplinary environmental
data and documentation answering service. Under the EDS "lead
center" concept, a user need contact only a single EDS center for
a comprehensive answer to his query whether or not the question
concerns the discipline for which the center has responsibility or
requires multidiscipline input. ,
EDS archives and disseminates global environmental science
data, information, and literature for all disciplines of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) responsibility. It
also provides referral information concerning data and literature
collections and information services of other agencies and activities.
EDS services and products are provided by four data and information
centers: National Climatic Center (NCC) Federal Building, Asheville,
NC 28801; National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC), Rockville, MD
20852; Environmental Science and Information Center (ESIC), Rockville,
MD 20852; and the National Geophysical and Solar Terrestrial Data
Center (NG&ST), Boulder, CO 80302. (On July 1, 1972, the National
Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the Aeronomy and Space Data Center
(ASDC) were combined to form the National Geophysical and Solar
Terrestrial Data Center.)
Southern Water Resources Information Center. Established in
1972 as one of three regional centers in the U.S. which comprise
The Water Resources Information Network, the Southern Water Resources
Scientific Information Center (SWRSIC) is a joint project of The
Water Resources Research Institute of The University of North Carolina
and the D.H. Hill Library of North Carolina State University. The
network is sponsored by the Water Resources Scientific Information
Center (WRSIC), an agency of the U.S. Department of the Interior.
In 1966, the Secretary of the Interior established a Water Resources
Scientific Information Center (WRSIC) within the Office of Water
Resources Research (OWRR). The Federal Council for Science and
Technology was designated WRSIC as the federal-wide water resources
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scientific information center. Its mission is to ensure the prompt
flow of scientific and technical information from both partici-
pating agency systems and WRSIC to interested agencies and indivi-
duals .
G-27 MODEL DESCRIPTION AND WORKSHEET INSTRUCTIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY INFORMATION AND PLANNING SYSTEM - MATERIAL BALANCE EXTERNALITY
TRACE (EQUIPS-MAGET). Cumberland, J.H., Serhardt, P., Sibson, C.S.,
Hibbs, J.R., Korback, R.J., and Siran, B.N., September 23, 1970.
EQUIPS is an inter-agency effort under the aegis of the Council
on Environmental Quality to develop data sources and information
for policy formulation. The first step will be to try to estimate
the gross residuals generated by the economy as it was structured
in 1967. Estimates will be made for 1970. Relationships estab-
lished, together with additional information, will provide a basis
for calculating alternative future gross residuals and disposal
requirements and possibilities.
Predator-Prey Model
G-28 MULTIPLE PREDATOR-PREY MODEL WITH AGE STRUCTURE. Saidel, G.M.,
(Speaker), and Teraguchi, Mitsuo, Case Western Reserve University,
Cleveland, Ohio.
A population-balance model has been developed to describe the
predator-prey dynamics of a food-chain in an aquatic ecosystem.
The number density and age structure of large-mouth bass, bluegills,
insect larvae, and zooplankton, which interact in a complex manner,
are included in the model. Simulations will be presented based on
preliminary field data.
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AIR
APPENDIX D
BIBLIOGRAPHY
"Lead, Airborne Lead in Perspective," Committee on Biological
Effects of Atmospheric Pollutants, National Research Council,
Printing and Publishing Office, National Academy of Sciences,
Washington, B.C. (1972).
"Fluorides," Committee on Biological Effects of Atmospheric
Pollutants, National Research Council, Printing and Publishing
Office, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. (1971).
"Air Quality Criteria for Carbon Monoxide," National Air
Pollution Control Administration Publication No. AP-62, U.S.
Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Washington, D.C.
(March 1970).
"Air Quality Criteria for Nitrogen Oxides," Air Pollution Control
Office Publication AP-84, Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, D.C. (January 1971).
"Air Quality Criteria for Sulfur Oxides," National Air Pollution
Control Administration Publication No, AP-50, U.S. Department
of Health, Education and Welfare, Washington, D.C. (January 1969).
"Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Beryllium and its Compounds,"
National Air Pollution Control Administration Publication
APTD69-29, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
Raleigh, N.C. (October 1969).
"Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Cadmium and its Compounds,"
National Air Pollution Control Administration Publication No.
APTD69-32, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
Raleigh, N.C. (October 1969).
"Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Mercury and its Compounds,"
National Air Pollution Control Administration Publication
APTD69-40, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
Raleigh, N.C. (October 1969).
"Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Arsenic and its Compounds,"
National Air Pollution Control Administration Publication
APTD69-26, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
Raleigh, N.C. (October 1969).
"Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Asbestos," National Air
Pollution Control Administration Publication APTD69-27, U.S.
Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Raleigh, N.C.
(October 1969).
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WATER
"Water Quality Criteria," Second Edition, McKee, J.E. and Wolf, H.W.,
State of California, State Water Quality Control Board, Sacramento,
California, Publication #3-A (1963).
"Report of the Committee on Water Quality Criteria," Federal Water
Pollution Control Administration, U.S. Department of Interior,
Washington, B.C. (April 1, 1968).
"Water Pollution Analyzers: A Changing Market," Porterfield, H.W.,
Oceanology International (October 1970), pp. 22-24.
"An Index-Number System for Rating Water Quality," Horton, Robert
K., Journal of the Water Pollution Control Foundation (March 1965),
pp. 300-306.
"A Water Quality Index - Do We Dare?." Brown, R.N., McClelland, N.I.,
and Deiniger, R.A., Proceedings of the National Symposium on Data
and Instrumentation for Water Quality Management, University of
Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin (July 1970).
"The Cost of Clean Water," Vol. II, Detailed Analysis, Federal
Water Pollution Control Administration, U.S. Department of the
Interior (January 10, 1968).
"The Economics of Clean Water," Vol. Ill, Industry Expenditures
for Water Pollution Abatement, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(January 1972).
"Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972," 92nd
Congress, 2nd Session, House of Representatives Conference Report
No. 92-1465 (September 28, 1972).
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SOLID WASTE
"Let DARE Make Your Solid Waste Decisions," Klee, A.J., The
American City (February 1970).
"The Role of Packaging in Solid Waste Management, 1966 to 1976,"
Darnay, A.and Franklin, W.E., Public Health Service Publication
No. 1855, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (1969).
"The Nature of Refuse," Niesseu, W.R., and Chansky, S.H., Arthur
D. Little Co., paper presented at ASME National Incinerator
Conference, Cincinnati, Ohio, May 17-20, 1970.
"A Systems Study of Solid Waste Management in the Fresno Area;
Final Report on a Solid Waste Management Demonstration," Public
Health Service Publication No. 1959, U.S. Department of Health,
Education, and Welfare (1969).
"Comprehensive Studies of Solid Waste Management," Public Health
Service Publication No. 2039, U.S. Department of Health, Education,
and Welfare (1970).
"Solid Waste Management: A List of Available Literature," U.S.
Environmental Protection Agnecy Report SW-58.16 (October 1962).
"Solid Waste Management Act of 1972," Hearings before the Sub-
committee on the Environment of the Committee on Commerce, U.S.
Senate, 92nd Congress, 2nd Session, Serial No. 92-60, March 6, 10,
and 13, 1972.
"Solid Waste Management Glossary," U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Publication SW-108ts (1972).
"Methods of Predicting Solid Waste Characteristics," U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Publication SW-23c (1971).
"Solid Waste/Disease Relationships; a Literature Survey," U.S. Public
Health Service Publication No. 999-UIH-6 (1967).
"Systems Analysis of Regional Solid Waste Handling," U.S. Public
Health Service Publication No. 2065 (1970).
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PESTICIDES
"Ecological Effects of Pesticides on Non-target Species," Office
of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President
(June 1971).
"The Pesticide Manufacturing Industry - Current Waste Treatment
and Disposal Practices," Environmental Protection Agnecy, 12020
FYE 01/72 (January 1972).
"Effects of 2, 4, 5-T on Man and the Environment," Hearings before
the Subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and the Environ-
ment of the Committee on Commerce, U.S. Senate, 91st Session,
April 7 and 15, 1970 (1970).
"Catalogue of Federal Pesticide Monitoring Activities in Effect
July 1967," Federal Committee on Pest Control, Arlington, Va.
(December 1968).
"Environmental Indicators for Pesticides," Stanford Research
Institute, prepared for Council on Environmental Quality (April
1972).
"Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Pesticides," National Air
Pollution Control Administration Publication APTD 69-44, U.S.
Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Raleigh, N.C.
(October 1969).
"Revised Chemicals Monitoring Guide for the National Pesticide
Monitoring Program," Schechter, M.S., Pesticides Monitoring
Journal, _5, 1, pp. 68-71 (June 1971).
"Water Quality Criteria," Federal Water Pollution Control
Administration, U.S. Department of the Interior (April 1968),
"Clinical Handbook on Economic Poisons," Hayes, W.J., Jr.,
Communicable Disease Center, U.S. Department of Health,
Education, and Welfare, Atlanta, Ga. (1963).
"Freshwater Biology and Pollution Ecology," Training Course Manual,
Federal Water Pollution Control Administration, Department of
the Interior (September 1968).
"Quantities of Pesticides Used by Farmers in 1966," Agricultural
Economic Report 179, U.S. Department of Agriculture (April 1970).
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PESTICIDES (CONT'D)
"National Pesticide Monitoring Program (revised)," special issue
of Pesticides Monitoring Journal, _5, 1 (June 1971).
"The Pesticide Review - 1971," Agricultural Stabilization and
Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (March 1972).
"United States Production and Sales of Pesticides and Related
Products 1969," U.S. Tariff Commission (July, 1970).
237
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RADIATION
"Population Dose from X-Rays - U.S., 1964," U.S. Public Health
Service, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare
(October 1969).
"Estimates of Ionizing Radiation Doses in the United States, 1960-
2000," Office of Radiation Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (August 1972).
Air Pollution, Stern, A.C., Vol. I, Academic Press (1968).
"The Cost of Clean Water," Vol. II, Federal Water Pollution Control
Administration, U.S. Department of the Interior (January 10, 1969).
"Radioactive Waste Discharges to the Environment from Nuclear
Power Facilities," Logsdon, J.E., and Chissler, R.I., Bureau of
Radiological Health, U.S. Department of Health Education and Welfare,
BRH/DER 70-2.(March 1970).
"An Investigation of Airborne Radioactive Effluents from an
Operating Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Plant," Cochran, J.A., et.al.,
NERHL, Bureau of Radiological Health, DHEW (June 1970).
"Liquid Waste Effluents from a Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Plant,"
Magno, P. et.al., NERHL, Bureau of Radiological Health, DHEW,
BRH/NERHL 70-2 (November 1970).
"Radiation Surveillance Networks," U.S. Atomic Energy Commission,
WASH-HAS (November 1969).
"Preliminary Air Pollution Survey of Radioactive Substances,"
National Air Pollution Control Administration Publication,
APTD 69-46, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
Raleigh, N.C. (October 1969).
"Environmental Survey of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle," U.S. Atomic
Energy Commission (November 1972).
Nuclear Chemical Engineering, Benedict, M. and Pigford,T.H,,
McGraw-Hill, New York, New York (1957).
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NOISE
"Noise from Construction Equipment and Operations, Building
Equipment, and Home Appliances," U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, NTID 300.1 (December 31, 1971).
"Noise from Industrial Plants," U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, NTID 300.2 (December 31, 1971).
"Community Noise," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NTID
300.3 (December 31, 1971).
"Effects of Noise on Wildlife and Other Animals," U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency, NTID 300.5 (December 31, 1971).
"Effects of Noise on People," U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, NTID 300.7 (December 31, 1971).
"Transportation Noise and Noise from Equipment Powered by
Internal Combustion Engines," U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, NTID 300.13 (December 31, 1971).
"Economic Impact of Noise," U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, NTID 300.14 (December 31, 1971).
"Fundamentals of Noise: Measurement, Rating Schemes, and
Standards," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NTID 300.15
(December 31, 1971).
"Vol. V, Agricultural and Recreational Use Noise," Public
Hearings on Noise Abatement and Control, Denver, Colorado,
September 30 - October 1, 1971, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (1972).
"Noise Pollution," Hearings before the Subcommittee on Air and
Water Pollution of the Committee on Public Works, U. S. Senate,
92nd Congress, 2nd Session, Serial No. 92-H35, March 24, 1972
and April 12 and 13, 1972.
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