WATER POLLUTION CONTROL RESEARCH SERIES • 16110 FRU 12/71-13
The River Basin Model:
The Social Science Laboratory
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
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WATER POLLUTION CONTROL RESEARCH SERIES
The Water Pollution Control Research Series describes the results and
progress in the control and abatement of pollution in our Nation's
waters. They provide a central source of information on the research,
development, and demonstration activities in the water research program
of the Environmental Protection Agency, through in-house research and
grants and contracts with Federal, state, and local agencies, research
institutions, and industrial organizations.
Inquiries pertaining to Water Pollution Control Research Reports should
be directed to the Chief, Publications Branch (Water), Research Information
Division, R&M, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D. C. 20460
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THE RIVER BASIN MODEL:
The Social Science Laboratory
by
Envirometrics, Inc.
1100 17th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
for the
Office of Research and Monitoring
Environmental Protection Agency
Project #16110 FRU
Contract 114-12-959
December, 1971
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402 - Price S2
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EPA Review Notice
This report has been reviewed by the Environmental Protection
Agency and approved for publication. Approval does not sig-
nify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and
policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does
mention of trade names of commercial products constitute en-
dorsement or recommendation for use.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapters* Page
I Findings and Recommendations -*-
II Introduction 3
III Objectives of the Study 8
IV The City Model 9
V The ^'eetings 28
VI "BLUE CITY on a Green Landscape: A Gaming-
Simulation at Dartmouth" -
John Sommer, Dartmouth College -*3
VII "CITY MODEL Usage for Courses in Real Estate
and Urban Development Planning" -
Maury Seldin, American University
VIII "CITY MODEL at Georgetown" -
Philip Patterson, Georgetown University
IX "CITY MODEL Usage in the Urban Studies
Institute of Mankato State College" -
Robert Barrett, Mankato State College 22°
X "CITY MODEL: The Memphis State Experience" -
Robert Dean, Memphis State University 252
XI Conclusion
269
*Chapters VI through X contain tables of contents of their
own at the beginning of each chapter.
111
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Chapter I
Findings and Recommendations
Following is a summary of the findings and recommen-
dations of this study:
1. It is possible to use one model to teach a variety of
social science subjects. This fact does not appear to
vary regardless of class size or whether the partici-
pants are graduates or undergraduates.
2. The presence of a social science laboratory in an on-
going curriculum requires substantial changes in course
context or the addition of a new course.
3. The inclusion of a laboratory cannot be done without
some help from a colleague or a graduate student. Fur-
ther, the decision to use the tool will require a con-
siderable time and effort expenditure on the part of the
professors using it.
4. Unanimously, the tool was considered a valuable addition
to the conventional discipline courses. This finding was
affirmed by both the professors and the students.
5. The model must be installed on the campus for really
effective use. This would mean that the model could be
more fully utilized and that the faculty and students
could experiment with it.
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6. There were no books available to the contributing pro-
fessors to help them in teaching the model as the re-
lation of this discipline to a total system.
In summary, the experiment indicated that the social
sciences are now ready to use a computer assisted laboratory
to teach their subjects. However, this laboratory must be
packaged better and made available to local universities
and colleges so that they may carry on individual experimen-
tation as part of their normal educational programs. The
results of the study showed the success of the use of the
model as a pedagogical device but also showed the almost
utter futility of trying to service its use from a single
centralized location.
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Chapter II
Introduction
Today, social science education is in the midst of a
severe cultural lag. Its students, responding to the needs
of our society, are interested in becoming active partici-
pants in the solutions of our social ills. They appear to
prefer this activist role to the more traditional one of the
passive scientist who studies the system from afar. Unfor-
tunately, although our educational institutions will at least
begin to prepare students for the latter, they usually do not
possess techniques for preparing them for constructive partici-
pation in day to day affairs.
Possibly a partial explanation of this failing can be
found in the evolved structure of the educational institu-
tions themselves. Unfortunately, there is little for the
historian and anthropologist to use to re-create the path of
evolution through the ages. Consequently, we shall be forced
to hypothesize the growth of this institution in Western
Civilization.
When the number of people gathered together in a group
or clan is small, and when the technology they have at their
disposal is primitive, the society (depending on the niggard-
liness of nature) is usually forced to spend large amounts
of its energy in matters of survival per se and therefore
spends little in speculative or educational activities. The
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young men or women, when time comes for them to participate
actively in the group's survival, are apprenticed to older
members of their own sex (normally in their own kinship group)
to learn by mimic the techniques they will use throughout
life. It is not until the technology improves and the group's
number increases, that specialization in education is able to
come about.
For our convenience, let us picture this evolving ru-
dimentary formal educational system as being divided into
two distinct categories. The first, a manual-technical clas-
sification which includes a teaching of all of the skills re-
quired to support the culture in its day to day existence. In
the case of teaching these skills it would appear that the more
routinized the skills required and the greater the number
needed to perform the operations, the more likely it is for the
task to be turned over to some form of formal educational in-
stitution rather than to be apprenticed to single individuals.
Subsumed under this category could be such training operations
as manual trade schools, guilds, military academies, and so
forth.
A second category can be broadly classified as philosophy.
This group of studies was instituted to cater to the needs of
the ruling and wealthy classes. Since there was little chance
that the young of these groups would ever need to perform
manual labor, they were taught how to govern and how to address
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themselves to the more abstract problems of life. Often
these schools specialized in religious training or in the arts
such as music and painting.
Classes in both schools were likely to-be small, and the
amount of accumulated tribal knowledge to be passed on to the
young-was relatively light. The seminar and laboratory
(shop) could be widely used, resulting in a great deal of
personal attention for the student. Further, secondary sources
such as book's were scarce so that the student could not be
totally separated from everyday experience; his laboratory
had to be his world — as interpreted by his teacher, of
course.
As educational institutions became more crowded and as
the accumulated knowledge of a society increased, the schools
had to search for methods of educating its students in a more
streamlined fashion. For example, many of the frescoes on the
walls and ceilings of the 13th and 14th century buildings
in Europe were painted by a master and his students. Such a
practice is possible only if the number of students is small
and the master can see to each in an apprentice fashion. For
many decades we attempted to maintain this concept of master-
student by separating the vast number of students seeking
knowledge into undergraduate and graduate levels. The lower
level catered to its clientel through mass-produced learning
situations. Only the best from this level were allowed to be
taught in a tutorial sense.
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Ancillary with the overcrowding of the educational sphere
has been the evolution of the researcher. As more and more
students demanded the benefits of an education, the demands
placed on the teacher increased to provide unique tutorial dis-
cussions of the day to day environment. Further, more and more
teachers discovered a continuing demand for a few of their
seminars (based on their own experience and observations) to the
end that there was both a desire and a demand for widespread
distribution of their teaching. Soon, the dual phenomena of
an expanding day to day environment and the teacher's capability
of explaining it led to the creation of a middleman, the re-
searcher. The researcher attempted to antiseptically describe
and relate a number of different environments and facets there-
of to be used by the teacher and his students in place of first
hand experience. In short, we evolved a body of men whose
specialty is the distribution of observations of the real en-
vironment in such a fashion as to provide an artificial, but
rich situation for the teacher and the student as they go
about the study of philosophy.
It appears that this trend, although seemingly logically
arrived at from a historical point of view, has worked to the
disadvantage of the modern student. In truth, today's graduate
student is the victim of both overcrowding of our educational
facilities and the loss of a tutorial teacher. His teachers
have taken the road of the researcher as the most rewarding
and have abandoned him to read their musing rather
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than join in the study. Although his predecessors had the
distinct advantage of practical studies under a master, he
finds himself relegated to the role of the former undergraduate
as his numbers have grown to a point where it is impossible
for modern educational facilities to handle him as a unique in-
dividual. Since, as noted earlier, our educational institu-
tions led the student to expect some degree of private atten-
tion and activistically oriented research as he progresses in
his education, the lack of these ingredients leads to a great
deal of frustration. The solution at first blush appears quite
simple. All that is required is to reverse the evolutionary
tendency so that the modern student can participate in real
life problems under the tutelage of a guiding teacher.
Unfortunately, however, self-evident as such a solution
might be, we are constrained by the fact that it is impossible
for all of the vast number of students of social science (part
of modern day philosophy) to be unleashed upon the day to day
world. What is needed is an educational technique which will
revert to a more personalized education and at the same time
allow society to remain undisturbed by the learning process.
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Chapter III
Objectives of the Study
When developed/ the proposed operational simulation
education program would make an important contribution to
college-level social science teaching. Financial support
was needed so that the program could:
1. demonstrate that operational simulations by com-
pressing both time and space can make complicated patterns
of interrelationships understandable to students and researchers
in the field of urban development.
2. refine comprehensive operational simulations for
teaching. These simulations, by holistically revealing
economic, social, and political variables in a metropolitan
area, make courses meaningful to a student than have more
traditional methods.
3. adapt the CITY Model to extensive classroom use in
interdisciplinary or other social science courses in urban
affairs and analysis so that it could be used:
(a) as the basic teaching device in a course, or
(b) as a means of illustrating specific principles
or relationships.
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Chapter IV
The City Model
How the City Model Operates
In the model, participants (usually from twenty to one
hundred) are decision-makers in one of three sectors: economic,
social or government. The metropolitan size, geographical con-
figuration, and political jurisdiction boundaries are chosen
before play from several alternatives.
Cu-rently available are ten starting cities, ranging in
population from 10,000 to 1.6 million. The simulated metro-
politan area comprises 625 parcels, each representing one
square mile (or one-ninth of a square mile), many of which
are unowned at the beginning of play. (See Figure 1)
A starting scenario may be used which briefly describes
the current status of the area in terms of problems, issues,
characteristics of growth, stability or decline, status of
services, housing, schools, traffic, tensions, conflicts or
plans. When the model is underway, the characteristics of the
city will reflect the actions and interactions of the par-
ticipants.
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The computer records participant decisions for each round.
It indicates the effects of decisions on one another and on the
metropolitan area itself. Regularly provided computer print-
outs show the interaction of decisions and their influence
during the run.
The CITY t-DDEL will respond to, and the play can be enhanced
by, an almost infinite variety of palyer actions generated by
curiosity, imagination, innovation or planning, programming, and
budgeting. A general description of decision-making power of each
sector follows:
Economic Sector Action
Economic decision-makers have many choices of action. They
are managers of their existing resources and have opportunities
to expand their holdings. They may purchase and develop un-
owned land parcels or buy owned parcels from other economic
decision-makers during a simulation run.
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CITY OPTIONS
FIGURE 1
BASIC CHARACTERISTICS
CITY NAME
POPULATION
POPULATION SCALE
TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF
PRIVATE DEVELOPMENTS
(in millions of $)
PUBLIC DEBT
(in millions of $)
NUMBER OF DEVELOPED PARCELS
CPU TIME
PAGES OF OUTPUT
FIXED MODULES
JURISDICTION
STARTING ECONOMIC TEAMS
MAXIMUM ECONOMIC TEAMS
SOCIAL TEAMS
USABLE MODULES (Starting)
RAIL
BUS
PREEMPT LAND
PUBLIC INSTITUTIONAL LAND
LOCAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
ASSESSMENT
METROPOLITAN
1,548,500
PI = 500
9,286
336
245
17 minutes
260
2
10
10
10
Yes
Yes
Yes
NO
Yes
Yes
TRICITY
601,000
PI = 500
2,504
355
136
5 minutes
280
3
10
10
10
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
D UN BE AT H
275,500
PI = 500
90
39
59
3 minutes
220
1
7
7
7
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
LOTHIAN
50,000
PI = 50
14
13
173
6 minutes
240
1
10
10
10
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
MORAY COUNTY
11,500
PI = 500
9
8
19
2 minutes
160
1*
4
10
10
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
*The director has control over
parcels (square miles).
two additional jurisdictions, each of which is composed of four
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As managers of economic enterprises, they are faced with
many decisions. Besides setting wage, price and production
capacity structures for their properties, decision-makers also
may decide to earn income from funds invested on cash sub-
sidies, borrow and lend money, and, of course, have to budget
for taxes.
Economic decision-makers can operate individually or in
concert with other economic interests to create economic
development plans, industrial parks, revitalization of a down-
town area, among other things. They may also cooperate with
city programs or actively oppose them.
There are four major types of economic activity in the
Model:
Basic Industry - Heavy Industry (steel plants, for
example), Light Industry (electronics firms) and National Ser-
vice Industries (local outlets or plants of national concerns).
These activities spend money for business goods,.business
services, utilities, maintenance services and transportation,
to produce output that is sold in national markets at prices
determined by the national business climate.
»
Commercial Establishments - Business Goods (suppliers
of hardware and raw material, for example), Business Services
(insurance), Personal Goods (consumer hardware) and Personal
Services (supermarkets).
12
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Figure 2
INTERRELATIONSHIPS IN THE CITY MODEL
o
CO
I—•
O
UJ
Q
CO
•»
Q
O
o:
X
UJ
o
UJ
UJ
^
o
Q
UJ
01
u_
Q.
I-
13
O
COMPREHEND THE
STATUS OF
BOTH THE CITY
AND PARTICULAR
AREAS OF CONTROL
MAKE DECISIONS TO
CHANGE STATUS
DEVELOP
STRATEGIES
ECONOMIC SECTOR
•PURCHASE LAND
•DEVELOP LAND
•OPERATE BUSINESSES
•TRANSFER MONEY
OR PROPERTY
•INVEST
•BOYCOTT
SOCIAL SECTOR
• VOTE
• ALLOCATE
•BOYCOTT
TIME
•SET TIME-DOLLAR
VALUE
GOVERNMENT SECTOR
•TAX
•APPROPRIATE BUDGETS
•OPERATE DEPARTMENTS
•RESPOND TO SOCIAL
AND ECONOMIC
SECTORS
.COMBINE THE ACTIONS/ DECISIONS/ AND INTERRELATIONSHIPS
TO CREATE A SIMULATED METROPOLITAN SYSTEM,
• BOOKKEEPING
FUNCTIONS
• OUTSIDE SYSTEM
INFLUENCES
9 ASSIGNMENT
PROCESSES
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Construction Industry - Negotiates contracts with
economic and governmental decision-makers/ builds or upgrades
developments with the requisite labor and material.
Residences - Single family dwellings, garden apart-
ments (or multiple dwellings) and highrise structures. They
may be developed to various densities and for three socio-
economic classes. Decision-makers here are landlords, who
spend money for maintenance, utilities, and taxes and earn
income based on the rent charges and the number of occupants
residing in the buildings.
Social Sector Actions
Social sector participants make decisions for population
units (people) who inhabit the metropolitan area. These de-
cision-makers allocate time for their groups (that is, to spend
extra time at work, in education, politics, or recreation),
boycott or strike (not to shop or work at certain businesses,
or not to use certain modes of travel), and to vote (for elected
officials or referenda).
Participants review their social status for the socio-
economic groups they represent. They make decisions as to how
they will vote, use their time and perhaps boycott so that they
can improve their position. Raising the educational level,
for instance, increases job opportunities and income potential.
An important part of the model's social action is the ad-
hoc or special issue pressure and agitation exerted by the
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social sector decision-makers. Often, low socio-economic
groups take concerted action to get the economic sector to
create more jobs or to get the government sector to improve
their schools or municipal services, or to encourage the devel-
opment of education parks, for instance.
Government Sector Actions
Government sector positions are: Chairman or Mayor; Coun-
cilman; Assessment; School Department; Municipal Services;
Highway Department; Planning and Zoning; Utility Department;
Bus and Rapid Rail.
These decision-makers are elected by the social decision-
makers or appointed by the already-elected officials to assume
the duties of the governmental functions, which are performed
simultaneously with the economic and social functions. The
elected officials must satisfy voters in order to stay in
office each round. The chief elected official in each juris- .
diction appoints others to execute the functions of the school,
municipal services, highway, planning and zoning, and assess-
ment departments.
The government departments build schools, provide muni-
cipal services, build and upgrade roads and terminals, maintain
roads, buy and develop parkland, zone land, and estimate rev-
enues. The players decide whether or not utilities, bus and
rapid rail functions may be operated publicly or privately.
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Other Roles
Other roles which may be interjected into a run of the CITY
MODEL include: Mass Media, Citizens Advisory Group, Federal-
State-Aid Officer; and Deputy Mayor and many others.
The City Model in Action
A sector by sector description of the CITY MODEL cannot
fully portray the dynamic interactions of the participants which
occur during the simulation, nor can it show the increased
awareness of urban system interrelationships which is a major
outcome of participation.
However, a brief description of a hypothetical round may
illustrate some of the excitement and realism of the inter-
actions.
A Sample Round
Early in the Round participants are reviewing their com-
puter output and trying to order their possible actions into
priorities..
Economic decision-makers will probably bid on unowned
land or acquire desirable land from other participants, attempt
to secure loans from local or outside bankers, apply for zoning
changes, request utility expansions, and pressure for expanding
highway access.
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Simultaneously, social decision-makers may be bargaining
for higher wages, requesting improvements in local schools and
municipal services, and trying to promote the politicians who
offer a favorable platform for upcoming elections.
The government officials are receiving the requests from
economic and social decision-makers to lower taxes, improve
the schools, provide better municipal services, expand high-
ways in several different directions, to build additional
utility facilities, enlarge the park system, and, possibly,
to lower bus and rapid rail fares while improving services.
Naturally, the budget officials are faced with the dif-
ficult task of finding sufficient revenue to meet the expanding
public needs and dividing the local appropriations pie among
the many departments — all of which have attempted to justify
expanded budgets.
Midway in the Round a majority of the decision-makers
realize that all their desires will not be fulfilled. They
will have to make trade-offs and bargains.
The elected officials begin to worry about staying in
office. The departments attempt to make do with sub-optimal
appropriation levels. The assessment office tries to minimize
the public resistance to changing assessments.
The low-income representatives endeavor to marshall some
political clout. The high-income representatives attempt to
maintain their status.
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Businessmen look for shortcut methods of reducing their
losses and increasing their activity in profit-making ventures,
Toward the end of the Round the participants seal the
bargains they have struck; continue to make decisions for
the computer to act on; finish negotiations on construction
contracts, new wage levels, new prices, and new rents; spend
current and capital appropriations; allocate leisure time to
various activities; carry out boycotts; and complete any of
the other possible actions.
At the Round's end, the participants may campaign and
carry out new elections, hold town meetings, debrief their
actions, and/or take a rest break while the computer is pre-
paring a new printout showing how the metropolitan area re-
sponded to their decisions.
The Director
The director of a play of the City Model may select the
starting city configuration used by the participants, change
a number of conditions in the city before the start of play,
and have a continual effect on the play through the use of the
many director options. These options are described briefly
in Figure 3.
The game director may select one of several initial
starting configurations representing rural and urban areas of
varying sizes. In determining what city to use, the director
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DIRECTOR OPTIONS
FIGURE 3
H
vo
Decision Type and/or
Director Option for
Pre-Round 1 Adjustments
Sector
Directly
Affected
Basic Results of Action
Vary number of in-migrantsi/ Social
Population by class Increased or stabilized
Choose construction facility Economic,
Local Construction Industry Government
Round lag for completion of construction projects
(each takes one year to build). Player operation
of CI including: negotiation of contracts; local
employment, etc. Local CI is .jiioice unless
director specifies otherwise.
Construction, Demolition^/
Cash Transfer
Cash Transfer
Economic,
Government
Developed area of city is changed.
Economic
Round 1 cash balance can be altered.
usually leads to more developments.
More cas
Government Operating subsidies provided or great budgetary
pressure applied to departments.
Public Land (Preempt)
Decisions normally under
player control
Economic
Land made either undevelopable or open for develop-
ments if land was previously undevelopable.
Social, Alter use indices (change employment); wage and/or
Economic, price structure changed; improve or hamper public-
Government services, etc.
Since the migration routine is first operated at the beginning of round 2, this director
option may first be exercised during LDIT before round 2.
-Decision-maker for v.-hor.i construction and/or demolition is boinq cent r.ve tu.i ;-'.;r;t Lave- .-:;.'.: K- 1<,-!, *„
funds in .iiK ac'JC'jr:t . ,-oto that in none of tiic- F;tart i no I-IM* ;" i •-...}-.: •_ i v .•.:-• .;•".;. .II.Y .•..;.. • : .." :.
i J iLius tr v ha v<_' on t s "cai;u i :.•; cun trac L.s i i i iC 1 LK; i ;K; t; // O_ t..- i v,c.') . : ... , .•.:;.•.'. : : •'...• . .: , i.
(l--'>ui!u J i.[>i\ > , ].:• con.--, t ruction ir.dust-ry v/i ; ' recc/i-.'L. inc ;••.;• , - v v. i ". . •• • : : : " • I • ;• : •
ii.i'-u.u i: i rv.i]Ri J ii. I;,L case of VLSC L or in i;;ounci 1 :i; t: • .- i.'. •:" .. -. \ .
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considers the factors summarized in Figure 3, which describe
the varying sizes and scales of optional cities.
Decisions in the City Model
The model's vastness may be illustrated by the type of
decisions available to its users. While it is not the pur-
pose to fully discuss the model here, the description below
gives an idea of the model's comprehensiveness.
Economic decision-makers may make any or all of the fol-
lowing decisions during any round of action:
Bid on and Possibly Purchase Land Owned by Real Estate
Interests That are Simulated by the Computer. Each round,
several parcels of this outside-owned land is put up for auction
and sold to the local decision-makers (economic or government)
who bid the largest amount over the asking price. Other out-
side owned parcels of land are sold to the local decision-
makers (economic or government) who bid the largest amount over
the asking price. Other outside owned parcels of land are sold
to participants who bid on them and purchase them on a prob-
ability basis that is affected by the location of the land and
the amount of the bid.
Purchase Land from Other Local Decision-Makers. Land may
be transferred between local decision-makers under mutually
agreeable conditions.
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Borrow Money from Outside Lenders, or Borrow or Lend
Money. The interest rate on outside loans is influenced by
national business conditions, whereas the interest rate on
local loans in mutually determined by lender and borrower.
Transfer Cash to the Account of Any Other Economic or
Governmental Decision-Maker. A cash transfer has no strings
attached as far as the computer is concerned. Participants must
themselves enforce any conditions attached to cash transfers.
Build (or Demolish) One of the Eleven Economic Business
Land Uses on an Unowned Portion of a Parcel of Land. Each of
the businesses has specific land requirements, utility service
requirements, and zoning qualifications that must be satisfied
before development can take place. Construction can be carried
out by a local construction industry (CI) through negotiations
with an economic decision-maker that owns a CI or by an outside
CI at 30 percent above normal development costs.
Change the Maintenance Level of Economic Activities.
The maintenance level measures the amount of upkeep and main-
tenance that is performed on plant and equipment. A low main-
tenance level means that the owner is not willing to spend
much money to keep the business in a state of hich maintenance.
The economic effectiveness of a business increases with a high
maintenance level.
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Change Salary to Employees. Owners of basic industry
(HI, LI, and NS) and commercial establishments (BG, BS, PG,
and PS) and the construction industry (CI) hire labor force.
The number and type of workers hired may be affected by the
salary level offered.
Change Rent Charged to Residents of Housing Units. Owners
of residences (RA, RB, and RC) set rent levels for potential
residents. The rent level affects the number and type of
residents living in a housing unit during any given round.
Change Prices at Commercial Establishments. Owners
of BG, BS, PG, and PS establishments set a price for a unit
of goods or services sold. The amount of sales is a function
of the price as well as the amount of potential customers and
competitive suppliers. Owners of CI establishments negotiate
the costs of construction with interested developers.
Boycott Shopping at BG and BS Establishments. The owners
of economic activities that purchase goods and services from
BG and BS establishments may refuse for any reason they wish
to buy from particular establishments.
Social Sector Actions
Social decision-makers receive computer output at the be-
ginning of each round of play. The social output lists by
population class the place of residence, educational level,
voter registration, dissatisfaction index, income, expenditures,
and time allocation for the population units controlled by each
social decision-maker.
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Participants review their social status and make deci-
sions for the coining round as to how they will vote, allocate
time, and boycott so that they can change their elected officials,
income/ education level, dissatisfaction index, or any other
set of objectives they wish to achieve.
Vote for Elected Officials and Local Referenda. Social
decision-makers have voting power that is dependent upon the
number of population units they control by income class, the
voter registration levels of their population units (based on
the amount of time spent in political activity), and the amount
of campaign donations.
Allocate Leisure Time Among Four Types of Activity.
Social decision-makers allocate 100 units of time for each
population class to a combination of four activities: extra
work, adult education (free or pay), politics, or recreation.
Any time spent in transportation to work is automatically
deducted from the 100 units of time. Time units allocated
to extra work or education which is not actually spent in one
of the uses (either because extra work was not available or
because public adult education was not available) then becomes
involuntary time and causes the dissatisfaction index to rise.
Evaluate a Unit of Time in Terms of Money. Social
decision-makers place a dollar value on a unit of time for each
of the population classes. The computer then uses this dollar
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value of time and adds it to the dollar cost of travel by mode
to achieve an overall minimum cost when assigning modes of
transportation to population units going to work locations.
Boycott Jobs, Stores/ or Modes of Travel. Social de-
cision-makers have an option to refuse to have any of their
population units work at any employment location, shop at any
personal goods or services establishments, or use the bus or
rapid rail systems to travel to work.
One of the most important indicators of social welfare is
the dissatisfaction index. This index for a population unit
increases if there is a decrease in the quality of the unit's
housing, if the unit is not served by local schools or muni-
cipal services, if its local taxes are excessively high, if
rents are above normal, if the population unit is unemployed
or under-paid, and if the unit has involuntary uses of time.
High dissatisfaction leads to migration either to another part
of the metropolitan area where dissatisfaction will decline or
to the outside system.
Government Sector Functions. Government decision-makers
are either elected (chairman and councilmen) or appointed
(assessment, school, municipal services, highways, and planning
and zoning departments). Governmental decision-makers may also
be in charge of the utility, bus and/or rapid rail departments
if they are publicly operated. Each of the governmental de-
cision-makers (designated by CH for chairman, CO for councilman,
AS for assessment, SC for schools/ MS for municipal services,
24
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HY for highways, PZ for planning and zoning, UT for utilities,
BU for bus, and RR for rapid rail, respectively) receives
computer output at the beginning of a round. Participants
review this output for the current round and future rounds.
The following decisions may be made by the indicated decision-
makers .
Allocate Capital and Current Funds, Subsidies, and/or
Cash to Each Department. - Chairman and Council. Each depart-
ment has expenses that must be paid for with funds appropriated
through the budget process.
Change Tax Rates on Land/ Developments, Resident Income,
Employee Income, Resident Auto Expenses, Employee Auto Ex-
penses, Sale of Goods and Sale of Services. - Chairman and
Council. Local tax revenue comes from taxes levied on a com-
bination of the eight tax bases.
Set the Level of Welfare Payments - chairman and council.
Unemployed population units receive unemployment compensation
at the rate designated by the local elected officials.
Change Assessments - assessment department. Assessments
can be changed for special assessment zones, the rate of assess-
ment increase, and the assessment ratio on land and develop-
ments.
Purchase or Bid on Land - school, municipal services,
highways, planning and zoning, utility, bus and rapid rail
departments. Land is required for public buildings, rights-
of-way, and parkland.
25
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Condemn Land - school and highway departments. Owners of
land that has been condemned may appeal the condemnation.
Final settlement is made by the chairman and council.
Change Employment Level - school and municipal services
departments. The number of population units hired as teachers
and government workers may be changed in response to the needs
of the community.
Change the Maintenance Level of Buildings or Equipment -
school, municipal services, highways, bus and rapid rail de-
partments. The maintenance level affects the effectiveness
of government facilities.
Make Contracts for BG and BS Purchases - school, municipal
services, highways and rapid rail departments. These depart-
ments may specify the establishments from which they wish to
purchase goods and services.
Request Federal-State Aid for Capital Expenditures -
school, highways, and planning and zoning departmenrs. Federal-
state aid for current expenditures is allocated on the basis
of population for the school and municipal services depart-
ments .
Change Boundaries - school and municipal services depart-
ments. Students and population units are served by the facili-
ties provided for their district. The district boundaries
may be changed to take into account population dynamics.
26
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Change Zoning - planning and zoning department. A master
plan may be implemented using the zoning powers of the local
government.
Change Mass Transit Routes - bus and rapid rail depart-
ments. The location, direction and amount of bus and rapid
rail service may be changed by the appropriate authorities.
Set Mass Transit Fares - bus and rapid rail departments.
Fares may be established on a per passenger, per zone, or per
mile travelled basis.
Construct or Demolish Buildings or Transportation Linkages
school, municipal services, highways, utilities, and rapid rail
departments. Construction may be performed by local con-
struction industries at negotiated prices or by outside con-
struction industries at fixed prices.
Add or Change the Level of Utility Service - utility
department. The amount of utility services (power, water,
sewerage, etc.) that can be supplied to a parcel of land is
dependent on the level of utility service provided.
27
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Chapter V
The Meetings
For the first and second meetings with the participants
we met to discuss problems with the study and to try to dis-
cover methods of improving the runs. The third meeting was
summarial and merely focused on the task itself.
The discussions were carried out very informally with a
representative of NSF present. Following are some of the
topics discussed.
A. There did not appear to be any easy method of intro-
ducing the material contained in the model. We loaned
the participants two film documentaries of the games
produced by NBC. Further, we made available
a number of slides and tried to teach the participants
how to introduce the model.
As a result, the first few months of the run were a
tribute to the tenacity and integrity of the profes-
sors as they stumbled and fought their way through the
model with the students. The second time around was
considerably easier as the professors devised their own
teaching formats and personalized the introductory
lectures. One professor devised his own visuals of the
City and his students produced a video tape designed
to teach the model.
28
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B. All of the participants had to change the reading lists
assigned to their courses. They found that the syllabus
used previously was no longer adequate to incorporate
the breadth of subject matter covered with the laboratory.
C. They all found that the model ran best when the political
leader was dynamic and aggressive. Also, unless the pro-
fessor began to make active use of the model to demon-
strate theories or to allow innovative decision-making,
the students became bored because they hud learned many
of the mechanics of the model by the fourth or fifth
round.
D. The students tended to take over the lab as a source
of self-study. One theme became clear: there should
be a central laboratory which would allow students and
professors continuous access to the model, regardless
of course.
E. The users felt that there was a need for more information
which was not provided by the model. Consequently, every-
one used a form of mass media, including one or more news-
papers and a video tape.
F. The model was too much for the professors to run them-
selves; consequently, each professor had to obtain help
from the participating students or faculty or assign one
of their graduate students to the project.
29
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G. All of the users found that the model ran better the
second time if a general goal or strategy for the
students was pre-assigned.
H. . There were a number of difficulties with misunderstood
or mispunched input cards on one hand and poor turn-
around on the other.
I. There was a general need for a visual of some sort to be
used by the players so that they could see the
importance of their decisions.
J. At the end of the first meeting, the users discovered
that they had only played the game from one of an in-
finite number of possible starting positions. They all
opted to continue with the same starting position rather
than a new one, however, as they did not feel confident
enough to tackle a quantum jump in complexity so early
in the game. One professor did continue his city devel-
opment rather than begin again.
K. The professors all ended with a feeling that use of the
model would be a part of the next year's courses and that
it would not be difficult to run. The amount of time that
they were required to expend to learn the model was
considerable. In fact, one or two said they might not
have taken part in the project had they known that it
30
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would have taken so much time. However, at the end of
the project, they felt that the time expenditure was
well worthwhile.
L. A social science laboratory is to remain at least at
three of the schools and is to be used not only to teach
students but is being spread to the local community for
use in action programs and local education.
In summary, the problems with the program were all tech-
nical rather than substantive. The professors chosen did
not all have prior experience with games; indeed most had never
used a model. They came from a variety of disciplines and
faced graduate and undergraduate students, in small as well
as large numbers.
In the sections to follow are their own reports, unedited,
although they were all asked to follow a similar format. In
spite of the fact that the professors all started with the same
introductory City and were asked to loosely follow a single
format, the individualism which grew out of the study is most
striking. This finding, like the others, is highly pleasing
and helps to attest to the success of the idea of a single
laboratory, which obviously can be used by different professors
without placing them in a situation of artificial constraint.
31
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The reports range in emphasis from how the professor
used the laboratory, to additions which students made, and
finally, to the validity and usefulness of the tool. Again,
these reports stressed the richness of this technique.
32
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CHAPTER VI
BLUE CITY ON A GREEN LANDSCAPE:
A (AKEN G-SIMULATION AT DARTMOUTH
A Report to Envirometrics, Inc.
Washington, D. C.
John W. Sommer
Department of Geography
Urban Studies and City Planning Program
Dartmouth College
Hanover, New Hampshire
33
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BLUE CITY ON A (KEEN LANDSCAPE
A GAMING-SIMULATION AT DARTMDUTH
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PART I
INTRODUCTION 35
PART II
Course Descriptions 37
Geography 10 37
Geography 52 39
Summary 41
PART III
THE DYNAMICS OF THE MDDEL'S USE: 42
INTRODUCTION 42
Trend of Play 46
Economic Sector 47
Government Sector 55
General Trends of Play 63
PART IV
CONCLUSIONS 64
Appendix 2
Geography 10 68
Appendix 3
Urban Geography 72
Appendix 4
Geography 52 75
Appendix 5
Student Projects 93
Appendix 6
The Munificent Hexagon 94
Appendix 7
Blue City Videotape 102
Appendix 8 103
Appendix 9 111
Appendix 10 120
Appendix 11 122
34
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PART I
INTRODUCTION:
During the past five years there have been few teaching members
of Academia who have discovered themselves to be immune to the urgent
press for new, exciting, teaching innovations. This past demi-decade
has thrust an entertainment-jaded student generation into the university
classroom where many of them believe they have paid to be amused,as well
as educated. The response of the teacher to this set of expectations
has fallen somewhere between a national tragedy and a national scandal:
that is, many university faculty have sought "relevance" through "podium
rhetoric" or the studied adoption of the stuttering phrases of the youth
culture, rather than through presentation of their philosophical justi-
fications for the kinds of knowledge they purvey. The extensive "know-
ledge-shaming" and "instant-erudition" that infuses so many campuses
today is unfortunate, and dangerous to the reputation of Academia as a
haven for unfettered learning.
In recognition of the problem of exciting this generation of students
with the quest for knowledge, and doing this without sacrificing some
heavily paid-for scholarly traditions, I sought to introduce some changes
in the Urban Studies and City Planning Program at Dartmouth College
(Appendix I). As the new head of the Program in 1969 I had been made
aware of the CITY I gaming-simulation developed by the individuals who
later founded ENVIROMETRICS INC. I then participated in a round of CITY I
in Washington and decided that the gaming-simulation had enormous merit
as an effective teaching device. For us at Dartmouth, the prospect of
35
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utilizing a gaming-semulation model to complement our urban field
programs (in Boston and Montreal) seemed ideal. From this initial contact
my participation in the project unfolded. I had no previous experience
with modeling.
Our Urban Studies Program has more than one-hundred "concentrators"
(they major in a discipline) but we have the capability of placing only
about fifteen a year into an actual city environment. Some students
chafed at the difficulty of "doing urban studies" in a rural area and
raised some valid objections to our normal curriculum. Most of the
students (largely majors in geography, political science, or sociology)
take at least six courses from our program, but among these we had few
offerings other than the survey and seminar type. The CITY MODEL offered
us some new, valuable opportunities, and we seized them. This was done by
inserting the gaming-simulation into our regular curriculum.
This report describes the experience we have had with the BLUE CITY
sequence of the CITY II model during this academic year 1970-1971, where
I employed the gaming-siraulation in two distinct courses. Part II of
this report describes the courses in which it was employed, including
their structures and educational goals. Part III presents some tenative
analysis of the dynamics of our play during both courses, and Part IV
hazards some conclusions about the use of the CITY MODEL in undergraduate
education from our experience at Dartmouth College. An extensive set of
appendices accompany this text.
36
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PART II
Course Descriptions
Mode st flexibility in our curriculum and course content allowed us
to employ the CITY MODEL immediately in two courses, however some serious
constraints were introduced by our short term (10 weeks), the schedule
of class hours which are difficult to rupture, and the responsibility
to cover certain materials in our courses which are not within the context
of the CITY MODEL. These constraints, as well as the manifold possibilities,
operated differently in the two courses in which the model was employed.
This portion of the report treats with Geography 10, The City of
The Future (a freshman seminar, during the Fall), and Geography 52,
Urban Geography (an advanced lecture course during the Spring). Students
from two other courses, as well as some non-course individuals took part
In the gaming simulations: during the Geography 10 rounds sixteen of
Professor Frank Smallwood's students from Government 31, Urban Govern-
ment and Politics, took part in the play. During the Winter two experi-
mental rounds were run (and later regretted) with Geography 42, a course
in theoretical geography.
Geography 10 (See Appendix 2 for Bourse outline).
This freshman seminar was the first I had taught and also the first :
college course for the sixteen men in the class. The aim of the course
was to' introduce these students to a seminar style of schooling as well
as to the general content of urban studies. A disciplined structure was
played down rather than emphasized. Some provocative readings were
selected for discussion and the City Model was employed to help students
37
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act out ideas they were beginning to acquire, or had previously acquired
about the city.
The course met twice a week for two hours, thereby allowing us the
minimum time needed to complete a play of the model. In fact, I bargained
with the students to have all of our other classes last 100 minutes if they
would set aside 200 minutes whenever we ran the model. Generally, this
/
time trade-off was successful with the freshman, but it was somewhat less
successful with the students from Government 31 who were, in effect,
being excused from three, ten page book review assignments for this parti-
cipation in the model. A few of these students believed the time trade-
off was weighted against them despite their interest in the gaming-simu-
lation.
i
The model was run six times during the term, or roughly every fourth
class period. This allowed for about ten days between runs, which was
good from the point of view of physical turn-around time from Envirometrics,
but it was judged poor by the students, whose interest flagged while
waiting for the return of the computer output. Two formal discussions of
the model were scheduled during the term, not including the introduction
of th<» model but these discussions focused more on the dynamics of the
play than on the driving mechanisms of the Model. The fact that these
mechanisms were not wholly accessable to us was not important during the
Fall when we even failed to make full use of the information provided in
the City Manual, but during the Spring this circumstance became more of
a problem with the advanced students who wanted to test some hypotheses.
38
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Students were told at the beginning of the term that their parti-
cipation in the Model would count for one-quarter of their final grade.
This proved to be a greatly subjective element of the grading process
because it was difficult to follow what each person was doing to arrive
at his interactions and decisions. This was not troubling intellectually
but it did raise a question about mixing the nature of the course -
particularly for the larger Geography 52 course in the Spring Term.
Geography 52 (See Appendix 3 for Course outline)
Urban Geography is a lecture course which accomodates 40-50 students.
Because it is a "core curriculum" course in our Urban Studies Program
almost all of the students have had at least one urban studies course before
taking Geography 52. Unfortunately, only about half of the students have
had a course in geography. These circumstances sometimes make for a slow
"lift-off" for the course because "in-filling" is required for the non-
geographers.
The course meets three times a week 9:05 a.m. to 10:20 a.m. but again
I was successful in trading-off the Saturday meeting of the class for a
Tuesday evening meeting from 6:30 - 8:00 in order to run the model; in
fact we never finished a Tuesday session before 9:30 p.m., a situation that
created some problems in the latter part of the term.
I have given this course a half-dozen times and the aims of the course
have been to introduce urban studies students to the spatial aspects of
urban phenomena, and to provide geography students an intellectual arena
in which to test ideas of the spatial organization of human activities.
39
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There is some responsibility to cover certain materials in the course
for the sake of both the Urban Studies Program, and the Geography
Department, therefore there is less room for experimentation than in a
Freshman Seminar.
Required readings for the course were not extensive, but each
student was provided with supplementary reading lists and asked to con-
sult them regularly (See Appendix 4 for reading lists). Both the re-
quired and suggested readings were designed to support discrete lectures
and general topics respectively. There was no assigned reading on games,
simulation, or modeling, although some of the students sought references
on these subjects by the end of the term, even to the point of creating
some of their term projects along gaming lines. (See Appendix 5 for
list of student projects dealing with games, simulations and modeling).
The readings, then, were not specifically designed to support the use of
the CITY MODEL, but it was believed that ideas from the reading would come
into play if they were perceived as useful.
THE CITY MODEL was used as a supportive, "imploding" element in the
Geography 52 course. My participation in the Model was greater during these
rounds than those run during the Fall, but in general I remained in the
role as a technical assistant, organizer, and manager. This was planned,
but it would have been forced on me anyway simply by the pressure of
handling the details of the Model.
Our scheduled discussions about the CITY MODEL during the Spring
were more analytical and comparative than those in the Fall for the obvious
reason of experience with the model as well as a more advanced group of
40
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students. These discussions were often speculative with respect to the
nature of the model but frustrating because we knew that J:he model would
remain an "opaque substance" until we could truly subject it to experi-
ments.
Grading participation in the Model was no less easy for Geography 52
than for Geography 10, especially since three of the forty-one students
could not meet at the newly scheduled hour, but this situation was solved,
In part, by introducing a new, and very exciting gaming-examination called,
THE MUNIFICENT HEXAGON (See Appendix 6 for the Introduction and Rules).
Along with employment of the Model itself this examination provoked more
favorable reaction among students than anything I have experienced during
my teaching career.
Summary:
The City Model was employed as an integral part of two distinct
courses during the academic year 1970/1971. No course could be specifi-
cally designed to focus solely on the Model. Insecurity over my own
abilities to direct a full model-based course, and insecurity introduced
by having to rely on an outside source (ENVIROMETRICS) for the conduct of
the course were too great to allow for unrestrained investment. It is my
conclusion from considering the course structures of both Geography 10
and Geography 52 (in light of the goals of these courses, within the
context of the Geography Department, and Urban Studies Program,) that a
new course needs to be designed to employ fully the potentialities of the
City Model, and other urban garaing-simulations. Such a course was designed
41
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for our summer school 1971 and successfully operated. It is hoped that
this success will carry over into our regular curriculum- on an experi-
mental basis during 1971/1972, and regularly after that. Part III that
follows examines the dynamics of the use of the Blue City sequence at
Dartmouth, and although there will be many points of comparison between
Geography 10 and Geography 52 rounds, much of the commentary is melded
observation.
PART III
THE DYNAMICS OF THE MODEL'S USE: INTRODUCTION AND TRENDS
INTRODUCTION:
The introduction of the City Model is undoubtedly the most difficult
aspect of its use because this is the point of ultimate ignorance of the
players, most of whom have not gamed before. There is a real tension
between the need to introduce the model, despite its massive and complex
characteristics, and the need to allow play to proceed without the game-
master introducing his own biases into the group of players. It is
significant that players and professor alike perceived this to be the
crucial point of the model's use and strived together to make it more
readily understandable to later players by creating a videotape intro-
duction (See Appendix 7). It is worthwhile discussing some aspects of
the introduction of the model before proceeding to an analysis of play.
It is obvious that the gaming experience of most college students
is limited, so the starting point for this kind of education is assumed
to be zero. Unfortunately, after reading the City Manual (version of
42
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August, 1970) the student's knowledge about the model, gaming, and his
role in the gaming-simulation, did not increase greatly. Two reasons
account for this: first, that version of the manual was not very clear
and the errata were numerous; second, it was difficult for the student
to believe that he was required "to learn" the Manual for the purpose
of a game. Specifically, that version of the Manual desperately needed
cross-referencing to speed up the student's ability to finr* out what he
needed in discrete situations. In a few cases where errata existed (and
were soon thereafter corrected by Envirometries, Inc.) the most serious
players became confused. Probably as important a factor was the failure
of many players to familiarize themselves fully with the Manual before
convening for the first play. They did their homework later, after they
discovered the gaming-simulation to be a serious matter.
It was very important to employ the scenario walk-throughs provided
1
by Envirometrics prior to our first run; now the more recently developed
"Thumbnails" may give added support for the initiates. There was a great
.deal of fumbling in the beginning of play and some guidance and suggestion
was necessary simply to inform players of what they could do.
A serious question must be raised about the "inflection state" of
the model because it was discovered that the original board layout and
the brief scenario provided go a long way toward determing later play
and later configurations. For this reason I believe that the gamemaster
should be especially careful when deriving a scenario, in order not to
predicate the play. Normally the raison d'etre of the original scenario
is expunged by the end of three rounds of play but there are certainly
43
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locational decisions and human interactions produced by the original
scenario that linger much longer. It was discovered too that in a simu-
lated decade of play the land use did not shift markedly, so one can
assert that the original board layout had much to do with later play.
This phenomenon of conservation, or pattern maintenance, was generally
unruptared until "end-game phenomena" took over and players became more
speculative.
The actual preparation for play at Dartmouth involved the following
steps: a) an introductory lecture on the game, preceded by a reading
assignment, b) display of materials, c) assigning of teams and roles.
The introductory lecture involved a discussion of gaming, a description
of the three sectors and their output, and a demonstration of interrelated-
ness in the model, using the processes of migration, employment and
commerce as examples. It was explained to the players that the gamemaster
could not possibly answer all of their questions and that it was incumbent
upon them to work out most of their problems alon e Most of the students
had read the manual (but not carefully), before the lecture and many
elementary questions were asked at this session.
Following the lecture the class was made to walk around the game room
(which later acquired the name, URBAN/REGION SIMULATION LABORATORY), to
examine the "public information" from the first round of the game, stopping
at each set of data sheets (e.g. Personal Goods materials) and discussing
some kinds of interactions that were revealed in the data. This excerise
never was as successful as I had hoped it would be because the players
seemed to ignore cuch of the data that were provided them, yet persisted
in asking questions for which data were available.
44
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Teams were then assigned, largely on the basis of preference. In
some cases a flip of a coin was used to assign persons whose preferences
were in conflict. During th« Fall Term I put an older student with a
•^
younger student, and during the Spring Term I put experienced players
with inexperienced players irrespective of age or class. This strategy
worked well, as evidenced by the close cooperation and friendship that
developed among players. In all cases players were assured that sometime
they would play a different role. This assurance was not possible to
honor in all cases but a real attempt was made without any feelings being
ruffled.
It was extraordinarily fortunate that we had the use of a set of
rooms, particularly one large game room, for the duration of the model's
use. Two walls of our main room were cork board and one was chalk board,
thereby facilitating information flow. The game information could be left
on the walls during the inter-play periods and the team data sheets could
be kept nearby for ready consultation. A 75" x 75" game board was mounted
on one wall and it proved to be the focus of attention in much of the play.
This board, and another developed by one of the students (shown in the
videotape), were used for large scale planning by each sector. During
the second set of runs a new position was created — that of Boardmaster,
whose main job was to provide immediate and accurate representation of
changes in the configuration of the patterns displayed on the board.
This player also did a landuse summary at the end of play.
Aside from the large room with movable tables and chairs, three
other rooms were available most of the time and these proved useful for
45
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private meetings of the different sectors, indeed, during the second set
of runs each sector was assigned a different room. One central room
had two teletype terminals tied into our computer system; these were
used by players to leave messages for one another after we developed a
safeguarded Message Center system.
Such were the conditions of introduction to the play and to the
•physical surroundings of the gaming area. Considering the lack of a true
gaming center we did well to find and use these kinds of facilities which
aided the introduction of the Model, as well as they facilitated play.
The need for better introductory procedures was still felt early in the
second set of plays, and a group of six students took on a special project
of developing a videotape introduction to the model. The tape developed
was technically sound and highly informative. The tape was played for
more than 120 delegates vho came from all over the United States to attend
a Conference on Computers in Undergraduate Curricula, held at Dartmouth
during late June. The tape was accompanied by a talk on urban gaming
models, especially the City Model. The tape and talk were warmly received
and should generate many inquiries to Envirometrics. The tape was also
used to introduce a Summer School class to the model, and although it seemed
to help launch the play it is too soon to assess the results.
Trend of Play:
The trend of play differed radically from the Fall run of the model
to the Spring run; the difference may be characterized as a shift from
idealism to realism, from cooperation to competition, from "getting it
46
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together", to just plain "getting it". Certainly there are many reasons
for this shift but I have been able to identify only three with surety.
•
One, the model, with its pre-digested scenario became the object toward
which competition was directed and students pulled together to beat the
"given" system. Two, an unusually charismatic student leader was the Fall
term chairman., and he chose to try to pull all elements of the city to-
gether. Three, during the Spring term we began play with the three sectors
In different rooms rather than together (as was done during the Fall), and
the result was heightened suspicion between sectors. In addition, by Spring
Term the experienced players gravitated toward the roles of the economic
sector, leaving the social sector relatively poorly staffed.
Due to some special circumstances of play the evaluation that follows
Is comparative, that is, over the period of four rounds the play from the
Fall Term and! the Spring Term were parallel rather than sequential. Due
to a lost tape, at the beginning of the Spring Term it was necessary to
play rounds 4 through 7 over again. At first this was perceived as a
problem but later it was considered an asset because it afforded the
possibility of reasonable comparison of play in a way that might not
otherwise have been achieved. The economic and the government sectors
are formally compared here but the social sector activities are better
treated in a mon-formal sense because the most interesting activities
of the social sector were outside the model.
*
Economic Sector:
Through these two comparable runs, one can discern the differences
and similarities in behavior of economic sector players for each run and
*
5 .
Much of the economic sector evaluation was prepared by two student
assistants. Bill Price and Richard Schwager.
47
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the underlying constant factors involved in the CITY game itself. Blue
City, in all respects, is a small urban area, even as of Round 7: there
is only one construction company, one business goods establishment and one
business services outlet. There are only two developments of each type
of national industry. Even in the two personal services businesses and
three personal goods outlets, these industries were plagued with recurrent
overcapacity problems in the face of slack social sector demand. The
housing shortage also contributed to producing a demand for personal goods
and personal services that was less than it could have been. Blue City
would probably have been just as well off with smaller and healthier PS
and PG.
Data collection was accomplished by separating each firm into its
individual business establishment components. A complicating factor was
the floating of a negative 6 billion dollar loan from E to B during the
Fallj.970 Round 7. Unscrambling the resulting maze of interest payments
and debt payments for each firm was quite difficult. The data was then
summed on two bases - firm-wide and industry wide, giving, for example,
summed results for Economic A and also for all RA. The data collected
was chosen in an attempt to measure growth and profitability. For an
individual business, these two factors were respectively measured by
total sales/rent and net income data. For an industry of businesses,
these were summed for all of a particular business over all firms. For
a firm of businesses, growth and profitability were measured respectively
by net worth and cash balance. The resulting data was used to calculate
percentage changes to facilitate the detection of trends. The basic data
48
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was also used to compute a measure of liquidity, (total cash balance -
•
net worth). This was used to indicate the extent of ready funds on hand,
*
an indicator of growth potential for Blue City each round. Growth, profit-
ability, liquidity were finally compared with population by calculation
of correlation coefficients between the various measures, indicating how
closely related some of the phenomena were in the underlying model, and
perhaps in an actual city.
A) Data & Graphs
The actual data accumulation involved a sector-by-sector account of
economic decision-makers A,B,C,E,F,G, (D is missing due to the absence of
Old Round data.) An account was made of the sales and net income of these
6 sectors for rounds 4 through 7 of both the original fall '70 runs (by
Geography 10 and Government 31 students) and the most recent spring'71
-runs (by Geography 52 students). This is data included as Appendix 8,
(in which all values omit a (000) place.)
An unscientific grasp of the economic progress of Blue City over
these four rounds can be obtained from this data. The "flow" or total
economy shows a steady rise in "net income", or the value for "net
worth". Among the steady improvers over time seem to be the 30 RA
units, the 10 RB units, and the 6 RC units, thus increasing gains from
residential ownership. The business and industrial operations tend to
be more sporadic in their earnings, reflecting their crucial necessity
of frequently varying sales, susceptibility to utility-tax-extra costs
changes, over-capacity, and dependence upon the mercurial social sector
activities.
49
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These four factors are intuitively observed in those firms which
had sporadic gains - the one BG unit, the one Cl firm, and^ the two HI
industries. They can also be seen in those which had slowly increasing
sales and incomes, were the two Li and two NS establishments; and
especially in those which suffered enough to lose money regularly - the
one BS firm, the two pathetic PS units, and the three PG firms. To
single out a few glaring examples,... CI: the CI firm's sporadic gains
resulted from a periodocity of
demand and occasional utilization
of the outside system for con-
struction.
PS & PG: These units combined $108 million
deficit for New round 7 (vs.-$51
million for old) come from a dis-
tinct over-capacity, that is an
ingrained underdemand for Blue
City's needs, and harsh treatment
by the Social Sector on whom they
rely completely.
Other results derive from this data and the graphs drawn for sectors
E,F,G, included as "Appendix 9". The Old round data and graphed income
lines show a greater increase than the New round data, narrowly but
visibly. Despite the fact that the two Rounds 4 were supposedly generated
equally, small discrepancies due to the random generators, and delayed
decisions created slightly different Round 4 base data. However, this
50
-------
result is clear in the following comparison of the higher values or
ties between the two runs at two different periods.
Round 4 Round 7
Old New Ties Old New Ties
16 12 5 21 10 2
A visual check shows a greater improvement for the Old run between
rounds, a suspicion confirmed later by more careful analysis.
B) Charts & Correlations
(1) Venturing into this more precise analysis, it was necessary to
invent some parameters to check the two Rounds' results over time. Three
parameters were devised:
Profitability as: (net income) - (sales)
Growth as: percent changes of values over time
Liquidity as: (cash balance) - (net worth)
•
Using these parameters, included as Appendix 10^clear changes and advances
become noticeable.
In profitability, the ratios ranged from -.454 to +.357; advances
and declines mirror earlier guesses. Oddly enough, the highest profits
came for RA, RE, RC for both Rounds' values; the unprofitable units were
for'PS, PG, and BS (Old only), an indication of their ponderous natures.
Low return units were the HI, LI, NS, and CI - about .1 to .2 for profit-
ability. Comparing the Rounds' totals, 11 declines occurred for the
Old, to 9 for the New; so to compare,
Round 4 Round 7
Old New Old New
5 § 65 higher profit ratios
51
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Thus, the two Rounds show generally equal profitability.
In growth, different results fall out of the data. The net worth
change, cash balance change, and Blue City population change were analyzed
for round-to-round growth. Over the three rounds, the relative growth
of Old population was greater than the growth of net worth, while the
net worth in the New rounds was relatively greater than the growth of
population. For the Old runs, because the growth of net worth was
relatively less than the population growth, production failed to keep
pace with the population by 28 1/2% to 32%; conversely, for the New runs
production exceeded population narrowly, 33 1/2% to 33%. But the inter-
esting growth pattern belongs to the cash balance change, important be-
cause it represents the firm's capacity to expand, improve, or build
(i.e., if you have a negative cash balance, no money-requiring venture
can be achieved, and economic decline is signalled). Both Rounds/Runs
showed weighty declines from round 4 to 5, but Old runs1 rallied to
salvage an overall 13% increase; New runs were plagued with failings
in the PS + PG units, which yielded an overall - 5 2/3% growth, or a
net decline in cash balance. This single fact conveys the relative
unproductivity in the New runs, and a cause for malaise in Blue City
for spring '71.
In liquidity, the 3rd parameter, the resulting ratios represent
the amount of funds in the net worth available for future expansion or
investment. The values roughly parallel the growth and cash balance findings,
such that the New runs failed to reverse the progressive decrease in
liquidity over time. Both Runs' fell from round 4 highs of .374 and
52
-------
and .411 to a low at round 5, but Old grew as New fell further to .29
This "pr°gressivity" is illustrated below.
Despite the short period for examination, this drop in New's liquidity,
added to its troubles with cash balances, give the nod for general
economic health to the Old runs' productive capacity.
(C) To augment these results, and to help clarify the confusing
array of previous findings, it was necessary to try some correlation
coefficients. These coefficients range from -1 to +1, with -1 represent-
ing perfect negative correlation (movement in opposite directions) and
+1 representing perfect positive correlation (movement in same directions
and at same degree). The results are included in the Appendix 11.
The correlations of the three parameters previously discussed. The
profitability correlations for the Old vs. New Runs of rounds 4-7 re-
vealed high correlations for: the 3 residences, the NS, U, BS, the PG
53
-------
and CI firms; low correlations for: the HI and BG and PS firms. These
results follow from earlier thoughts, representing similar management
(i.e. decision-makers') decisions for those eight high1 firms, or steady
rates of increase; the 'low* firms' came from industry's sporadic move-
ment (HI and BG) plus the Social Sectors' actions (PS). In general,
the 6 firms' coefficients were greater than +.9, thereby displaying a
remarkable similarity in decision-making operations with respect to
profitability.
The growth correlations reveal much more on Blue City's progression
through the twin sets of rounds. "Net worth's" +.425 value stems from
New's upturn from round 6-7 when Old hit a downturn, "Cash balance's"
high +.907 stems from a similar movement in values (despite Old's con-
sistantly higher values); "Population's" near-perfect +.99 is to be ex-
pected if the twin Runs were equal, because population increased similarly
for both Runs. The "liquidity correlations" substantiate the earlier
finding that the differing Runs possessed similar decreases in liquidity
through round 6 (the +.99 result), but had a divergence in round 7 (thus
the +.80 result).
The cross correlations represent an attempt to analyze general
trends. It is with these that interesting coefficients appear. The
extremely high old "net worth" to Old "population" correlation of
+.998 represents a remarkable similarity in movement and growth, while the
New value of +.234 shows the dissimilar trends articulated earlier. The
high negative value of -.952 for New "net worth" to New "cash balance"
further shows the negative trend of the cash balance movement, while
54
-------
the -.53 for Old shows a mediocre relation in opposite ways. In total,
these figures lead to several conclusions.
D) Conclusions
(1) x a relative increase in the Old run liquidity and growth in
cash balance points to its superior advantage in investment,
building, and growth over the New run.
(2) high profitability correlations for almost every branch of
the economy point to a general similarity of decisions and
cognizance of the play of Blue City.
- (3) over all 4 rounds then, the Old runs enjoyed a better advantage
for growth but both Runs exhibited similar decision-results,
with the New runs exhibiting difficulties in its PS & PG units
being the major difference; thus the New fared well with
what it had, and despite a negative growth in its cash balance
(which, of course restricted activity.)
Government Sector:
It was agreed by almost all of the government players who had ex-
perienced roles in other sectors that the Government sector was the most
demanding of their time and energy: more people to deal with (often
aggregated at the end of the game period), more general responsibility
in decision-making that was taken seriously, constant pressure to bal-
ance diverse interests and to project a leadership image of its own all
contributed to the difficulty of play. Although this sector has the
potential to be the most unstable of the three in "terms of personnel
it proved,to be remarkably stable. In fact, once a player learned
55
-------
the mechanics and mores of a government role he was reluctant to re-
linquish it, even when the Chairman changed. Moreover, the electorate
and the new Chairman were always anxious to retain most of the non-elected
government officials from the previous regime.. All of this suggests that
politics was relatively less important to the players than technocratic
management, and this attitude induced a great deal of conservancy in the
play. In fact, over a cumulative total of fifteen rounds of play the
government changed hands only twice, and it is doubtful that it would
have changed a single time without artificial outside pressure from the
game director. In the elective process there was almost no trading of
votes for specific policies, and, in general there was very little in-
terest in politics. At some elections the incumbent had to be reminded
to file for re-election, and in a half-dozen cases he ran unopposed and
was elected unanimously.
Neither the Social Sector nor the Economic Sector put much pressure
on the Government, but on the whole the Government was more responsive
to the requests of the Economic Sector. There was virtually no bribery in
the play. The Social Sector players were generally too lost and dis-
organized to pressure either sector.
In a brief student analysis of selected departments of the govern-
\
ment where the student compared the Fall and Spring terms of play he
discovered that aside from their obvious correlations with population,
the rates of growth of demand for both Utilities and Municipal Services
are both greater and steadier in the new play than in the old. The
*
The analysis was carried out by William White.
56
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graphs (Figures 1 & 2) show these rates of growth and compare them to
population growth.
Figure 3 shows the tax structure in Blue City. It does not include
such things as bus fares, utility billing, and bribes, which cannot be
counted as part of the total picture. In both graphs, the Resident
Income Tax and Property Improvement Tax share a little over 75% of the
load. The general structure is, in itself, no cause for discontent,
and thus has remained stable through the life of the model.
Figure 4 is perhaps the most interesting of all, for it provides
some insight into the inner workings and intricacies of the model. A
high use-index in the school system implies that the quality of public
schooling is somewhat low. Therefore it is logical that the parents of
the children will put them where the quality of education is best. In
the case of a high use-index, the number of children in public school
will be lower. The printout numbers have been translated into per-
centages, where the number of children in public school is a percentage
of the total number of school-age children. When the school system's
use-index is high, a smaller percentage of children attend public
school. The actual correlation is about -0.9.
The fluctuations of use-index in the old play and its relative
calmness in the new play is directly attributable, again, to the longevity
of the "superintendents of schools." A short period of "breaking in" is
necessary, as shown by the new play, where conditions have been improving
steadily since Round Five.
57
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500,000
406,000 -
300,000
7000
fcOOO
MS
5OOO
6
Round
6500
5:500
4-500
FIGURE ORE
58
-------
MEW PLAY
500,000
5000
4-500
FIGURE TWO
59
-------
PROPERTY IMPROVEMENT TA*
5^.56%
RESIDENT
TAX
Z.3.61%
-------
TO
FIGURE POUR
61
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In a department by department break down for "services" for the
two runs it is possible to compare the differential development of the
two plays.
Rounds
Highway
Road Mantenance
($ Millions)
Fall Spring
•~-LJ~~" ' (
.987 1.09
Average Depletion
before Maintenance
Road Type
1
2
3
School
Hi Use Index
Lo Use Index
% Private Ed.
Unmet Adult
Education Demand
Municipal
Services
1.7
1.4
0.9
91
62
.164
2795
1.3
1.4
1.1
91
64
.129
2775
Hi MS Index 121
Lo MS Index 64
Welfare Payment $ 1200
Total Welfare $ 0
Fall Spring
1.11 1.19
Fall Spring
1.62 1.52
2.0
1.3
1.0
200
68
.440
4705
1.4
1.6
1.1
200(?)
71
.409
4835
2.4
1.4
1.5.
91
73
.234
705
Fall Spring
1.66 1.73
1.8
1.2
1.7
94
72
.287
0
2.1
1.2
1.6
92
64
.161
0
1.8
1.2
1.7
99
74
.280
1317
109
59
1200
0
101
89
1200
0
101
89
1200
0
128
90
1200
0 '
127
96
1200
0
128
93
1200
0
200
200
1200
0
Utilities
Hi Cost/Unit
Plant
Lo Cost/Unit
Plant
Charge ($1000)
8249 7323
7559
10.2
7197
9.7
7589 7357 7456 7433 7998 7568
7354 6762 . 6736 7399 7048 7503
10.2 9.7 10.2 9.7 10.2 9.7
62
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One may conclude from a cursory examination of the data that over
the comparable four rounds there was considerable similarity in the
data for government "services" of Highways, Schools, Municipal Services
and Utilities. No trend emerges that cannot be explained from population
increase in the Model. This suggests that the continuity of government
decision making from the Fall term to the Spring term was maintained,
or that the Model is not very sensitive to the decisions from this
sector.
General Trends of Play:
Observations of the extended play that was carried out by the Dart-
mouth group allows the following categorization of the trend of play:
Characteristic Rounds
Confusion 1 and 2
Competence 3 and 4
Complacency. 4 and 5
Cognition 6 and beyond
As noted above, there was general confusion for two rounds of play
as the participants frantically explored the Model. This period was
characterized by great frustration at the seemingly overwhelming amount
of information to process and interactions to strive for. Students often
pleaded for guidance and help and became angry if satisfactory advice was
not forthcoming.
This period of confusion was followed by a period of relative com-
petence in the game techniques and relative stability of play. Questions
to the Director dropped off sharply and some innovations and unusual
combinations began to be formulated by a few players. This situation
63
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lasted for two rounds of play and was followed by one or two rounds of
bored complacency. During this period the economic sector made money,
the social sector remained disorganized, and the government was not
pressed from any side. There was a definite threat around rounds 4 and
5 that students would lose interest in play if no external pressures
were introduced. In the Fall the social sector did induce a crisis by
threat of boycotts and physical damage, but even here this suggestion
came from a non-player. In the Spring Term the Director induced a crisis
by asking the Envirometrics Staff for an increase in the dissatisfaction
index and for an economic depression. The social crisis did occur but
the economic crisis did not. It was the general lack of economic shortage
in the model relative to the perception of possibilities by the students
that contributed to complacency. Some students did not grow in their
sophistication beyond the complacent stage although most of them tried
to mask their lack of interest. Other students, more than half of the
players, became cognizant of a wider erena for action, a greater number of
possibilities, and a deeper meaning in the play of the game, all of which
gave them a "second wind" that carried beyond the termination of play.
PART IV
CONCLUSIONS
Some of my conclusions are implicit in the foregoing remarks, how-
ever it is worthwhile to restate them explicity.
1. The experience of using the City Model has thoroughly convinced
me that it is a superior learning device when used effectively:
64
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a greater percentage of a class is intellectually engaged in
the gaming-simulation than is engaged in normal curricular
offerings. Obviously novelty has something to do with this
but it goes deeper than that in the context of contemporary,
conventional academic offerings.
II. The use of a complex model like Blue City requires the build-
ing of a course around it rather than leaving it on the
periphery of a course. From a teaching standpoint I am no
longer troubled by the prospect of making gaming-simulation the
core technique in a course. I would not, however, risk the
building of a regular curricular offering along these lines
until I had secure access to the model on our own computer —
indeed such a course would probably not pass through the
curriculum committee (a necessary procedure for regular
offerings at Dartmouth and most other Universitites) without
assurances of the Model's immediate availability.
III. The instructor should build the class up to the use of the
City Model by using some simpler games so that the gaming
concept becomes more clearly fixed in the student's mind be-
fore play begins. This should be part of a general orientation
to the Model and should be punctuated with lectures and dis-
cussions.
IV, It is absolutely imperative that one or more assistants be
engaged to help run the play and take care of the detailed work
thereby allowing the teacher to be free to discuss ideas with
the students.
65
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V. To be fully effective as a teaching device the students
should be able to experiment with the model in some controlled
fashion so that it passes from the realm of an engaging
teaching tool into a true social science laboratory.
VI. The physical environment of the gaming area is very important
to play. Access to several rooms which do not conflict with
other classes, and the flexibility of the rooms themselves
are crucial. There should be effective display space to show
the public information of the model. A large,up-to-date land
use map is especially important.
VII. There must be a critical mass of players (which occurs at about
twenty), to have effective play; my preference is for twice that
number. There must also be an extended enough period of play
(number of rounds) to allow for responsible actions to evolve.
The final round should not be divulged ahead of time so that
"end-game phenomena" may be avoided.
VIII. The more different kinds of people (age, race, education level)
the more interesting and fruitful the learning experience of
the play.
IX. Bugs in the model should be corrected as soon as possible be-
cause their peristence has a deleterious effect on the play.
X. The Manual should be re-evaluated and revised as ways to clarify
instructions are discovered.
66
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XI. Serious evaluation should be made of the influence of the
starting conditions of the model on the end result of play.
This seems to be an important area for social science research,
XII. Continued experimental play such as that carried out by the
six universitites would be useful to those responsible for
the development of the model - better still would be the
release of the model to universities with the capability to
experiment with it and to elaborate further its powerful
teaching potential.
67
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Appendix 2
GEOGRAPHY 10
THE CITY OF THE FUTURE
Professor John W. Soramer
306 McNutt Hall
Wednesday and Friday At 10:30 a.m.
68
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The City of the Future
This seminar is designed to do several things: to
inform you of contemporary urban life through the recent
writings of some social scientists; to engage you in the
actual simulation of an urban area through the use of the
City Model; to sharpen your writing ability through the
submission for criticism of several papers; to develop oral
expression by presentation of reports; and, to have some
fun while we do it. Although our approach to this subject
must be eclectic there will be a noticeable emphasis on
the spatial expression of urban dynamics - this is what
the geographer brings to any discussion of the city.
Below are the text requirements. These will be supple-
mented by readings at the Reserve Desk at Baker Library.
E. Banfield The Unheavenly City
H. Cox The Secular City
Daedalus The Conscience of the City
E. Hall The Hidden Dimension
G. Suttles Social Order of the Slum
Envirometrics The City Manual (See Professor Sommer)
Office: 301 McNutt. Telephone 646-3117
Office Hours: To be established early in the term.
69
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Schedule of Meetings: *
Friday, September^JlS-
Wednesday, September 30
Friday, October 2
Wednesday, October 7
Thursday, October 8
Friday, October 9
Wednesday, October 14
Friday, October 16
Tuesday, October 20
Wednesday, October 21
Friday, October 23
An Introduction to Urban Studies at
Dartmouth and to the seminar.
Lecture: The Growth and Spread of
Urbanization; An Introduction to
The City Model.
Read: The City Manual
Play I: Blue City at the first
generation. Submission of data must
be completed by 10:00 p.m.
Read: Blue City Scenario
Lecture: Hedonopolis, Fat City and
the Mobile Parasitopoli.
Report due on E.K. Hall's, The Hidden
Dimension.
Discussion: The Hidden Dimension;
Questions of Perception of Environment
Read: E.K. Hall, The Hidden
Dimension
Saarinen. Perception of
Environment.
Play II: Blue City at the second
generation. Data submission due by
6:00 p.m.
No Class
Review due on H. Cox's^ The Secular
City
Discussion: The Secular City:
Questions of Human Response to Urban
Life.
Read: H. Cox. The Secular City
Rose. Social Processes in
the City.
College Holiday.
* This schedule may be further developed, especially in
relation to the playing of Blue City.
70
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Wednesday, October 28
Friday, October 30
Wednesday, November 4
Friday, November 6
Wednesday, November 11
Friday, November 13
Wednesday, November 18
Friday, November 20
Tuesday, November 24
Wednesday, November 25
Friday, November 27
Wednesday, December 2 )
Friday, December 4 )
Wednesday, December 9 )
Friday, December 11
Play III: Blue City at third
generation. This session to be
videotaped. Submission of data
due at 5:00 p.m.
Discussion: Review of videotape and
discussion on the progress of Blue
City.
Discussion: The Conscience of the City.
Each student will present a precis of
a chapter in the Daedalus piece.
Specific assignments will be made in
class.
Read: Daedalus. The Conscience
of 'The City.
Discussion: Continuation of the
presentations begun during the previous
session.
Play IV: Fourth generation of Blue
City.
Discussion: Social Order of a Slum.
Questions of territoriality in urban
space.
Read: G. Suttles. Social Order of
The Slim.
Discussion: The Unheavenly City: Is
there an "urban problem?"
Read: E. Banfield. The Unheavenly
City.
Lecture: Urban Geography and Planning;
Scholarship and Social Responsibility.
Outline for a research paper on the
city of the future is due.
Reflective essay on The Individual in
an Urban Environment is due.
Play V: Final generation of Blue City.
College Holiday
Discussion: Oral presentation of re-
flective essays on the Individual in
an Urban Environment.
Research paper due.
Final conference with the instructor
to discuss the research paper will
occur during the final examination
period.
71
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Appendix 3
URBAN GEOGRAPHY
Geography 52
Spring 1971 Professor John Sommer
T & Th 9:15 a.m.
Tuesday 6:30-8:00
This course is designed to introduce you to the study of urbanization
with the tools of the geographer. One must realize that not all aspects
of urban geography can be examined in one term so have limited the scope
of the course, hopefully without sacrifice of any major portion of the
field. Our intent is to review some theoretical notions during the first
part of the course and to relate them to specific cases. During the second
part of the course we shall engage in practical work in the field which
will be analyzed and presented during the last two weeks of the term. One
day each week will be devoted to the play of Blue City, an urban simulation
game. These plays will run parallel to the lectures and reading but it is
hoped that both aspects of the course will influence the other. Blue City
must be run at a time other than the class period so I propose we utilize
Tuesday 6:30 - 8:30 p.m.
In addition to the normal class period the instructor will be available
as a resource person on selected X-Hours for student organized discussions
or seminars. Please keep in mind that at least one weekend (probably
the weekend of May 22 and 23) will be engaged for field research. Do not
plan to do anything but Geography 52 at that time.
The reading for the course is ample without being too burdensome; it
is, however, concentrated in the first six weeks of the term so do not let
yourself get too far behind. There will be one three hour examination in
mid May. This examination will count 50% of the final grade. The term
project resulting from the field research will count 30%. A variety of
other exercises, make up the remaining 20%; these include participation in,
and critique Blue City, a set of five one or two page written precis of
articles which support your field research, and the completion of several
assigned exercises. You will be responsible for all assigned reading, whether
covered in the lectures or not, and you will also be responsible for ideas
developed in lecture and discussion sessions.
Office hours for Geography 52 for Mr. Sommer are: Mon. 1:30 - 3:00
Others to be set-up later.
TEXTS: B.J.L. Berry. The Geography of Market Centers and Retail
Distribution
G. Breese, Urbanization in Newly Developing Countries
G. Suttles, The Social Order of the Slum
Recommended:
B.J.L. Berry and F. Horton, Geographic Perspectives on
Urban Systems
L.S. Bourne, Internal Structures of The City: Readings on
Space and Environment
72
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CLASS MEETINGS
April 1 Scale Components in Urban Geography
April 3 Historical Urbanization
April 5 Re-Discovering Iran's Most Ancient
Civilization: Tepe Yahya 8:30 p.m.
28 Silsby Hall.
April 6 Tepe Yahya
(Coffee in the Lounge after, 10:20)
April 6 Introduction to Blue City 6:30 p.m.
April 8 Urban Typologies: The Case of the
Pre-Industrial City of Fez
April 9 X-HOUR Blue City Round 7
Decision Making 8:00 a.m.-9:30
April 13 Urbanization in Middle America in
Antiquity
April 13 Blue City Discussion and Planning
April 15 Cities as Points: The Economic Base
of Cities
April 20 Blue City Round 8 6:30 p.m.
(No lecture scheduled)
April 22 Cities as Points: The Canadian Urban
System
April 27 Cities as Areas: The Surface of
London, Ontario
April 27 Blue City, Round 9 6:30 p.m.
April 29 Cities as Areas: Land Rent Curves
and Core Deterioration: Tacoraa
May 4 They Influence of Transportation on
Spatial Change & Social Stress in
the Capitalist City
May 4 Blue City, Round 10 6:30 p.m.
May 6 Cities as Volumes: Boston South End
May 11 Cities as Volumes: Black City:
Patterns of Urban Demography in the
United States
May 11 Blue City, Round 11
May 13 Wholesale and Retail Trade in
New England
May 18 Blue City, Round 12
73
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May 20 Hour Examination: 9:15-10:20
May 22-23-24 FIELD RESEARCH
May 25 Blue City, Round 13 6:30 p.m.
(No Class scheduled)
May 27 Moscow: A City of Socialist Man
June 1 Blue City, Round 14 6:30 p.m.
(No Class scheduled)
June 3 An Integrated View of Dakara Post-
Colonial Capital
74
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Appenuj.x i
GEOGRAPHY 52
BIBLIOGRAPHY: URBANIZATION
ANDERSON, Nels (ed.) Urbanism and Urbanization, (London: J.H.Brill, 1964).
BERRY, Brian J.L. "Some Relations of Urbanization and Basic Concepts of
Economic Development", in Pitts (ed.) Urban Systems and Economic
Development, (University of Oregon, 1962).
BERRY, Brian J.L. Metropolitan Area Definition; Re-Evaluation of Concept
and Statistical Practice, Working Paper No. 28, (Washington: U.S.
Bureau of the Census, 1968).
BERRY, Brian J.L. and NEILS, Elaine "The Urban Environment Went Large",
Harvey S. Perloff (ed.) The Quality of the Urban Environment, (Wash-
ington: Resources for the Future, 1969).
BOGUE, Donald J. The Structure of the Metropolitan Community, (Ann Arbor:
University of Michigan Press, 1949).
BORCHERT, John "American Metropolitan Evolution", Geographical Review, LVII,
(July, 1967), pp. 301-32.
BORCHERT, John The Urbanization of the Upper Midwest 1930-60, Urban Report
#2, (Minneapolis: UMES, 1963).
BREESE, G.E. Urbanization in Newly Developing Countries, (New York: Prentice-
Hall, 1966).
BREESE, G.E. The City in Newly Developing Countries, (Englewood Cliffs:
Prentice-Hall, 1969).
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GEOGRAPHY 52
BIBLIOGRAPHY: LOCATION
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THOMPSON, Wilber R., "Internal and External Factors in the Development of Urban
Economics".
THOMPSON, Wilber, R., and MATTILA, John M. "Towards an Econometric Model of
Urban Economic Development," in Harvey S. Perloff and LowdenWingo,
Issues in Urban Economics (Baltimore: John Hopkins, 1968).
SMOLENSK?, Eugene, and RATAJCZAK, D., "The Conception of Cities," Exploration
in Entrepreneurial History, II (Winter, 1965), pp. 90-131.
WILLIAMSON, Jeffery G. and SWANSON, Joseph A., "The Growth of Cities in the
American Northeast, 1820-1870," Explorations in Entrepreneurial
History. IV, I (Supplement), 1966.
88
-------
GEOGRAPHY 52
BIBLIOGRAPHY: STUDIES OF THE CANADIAN URBAN SYSTEM
AMBROSE, Peter J., "Some Technique for Measuring Change in Employment Structure",
Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, LVIII (March-April,
1967) pp. 76-81.
AMBROSE, Peter, "Patterns of Growth in the Canadian Labour Force 1951-1961,"
Canadian Geographer XIV (Summer, 1970) pp. 139-157.
ARMSTRONG, F.H. "Metropolitanism and Toronto Re-examined, 1825-1850", Canadian
Historical Association, (1966), pp. 29-40.
ARMSTRONG, Frederick H. "Urban History in Canada," Urban History Group Newsletter,
No. 28, (December, 1969).
BURGHARDT, Andrew F., "The Origin and Development of the Niagara Peninsula,
Ontario, 1770-1851, Annals of the A.A.G.. LIX (September, 1969),
pp. 417-440.
CAMU, Pierre, "Les Ports de la Province de Quebec," Cahiers de Geographie de
Quebec. Ill, 6 (Avril-Septembre, 1959), pp. 393-402.
CANADIAN COUNCIL ON URBAN AND REGIONAL RESEARCH„ Urban and Regional References
1945-1966 (Ottawa: 1960).
CARELESS, J.M.S., "Frontierism, Metropolitanism, and Canadian History",
Canadian Historical Review XXXV (March, 1954), pp. 1-21.
CARELESS, J.M.S., "Metropolitanism and Nationalism," in P. Russell (ed.)
Nationalism in Canada, (Toronto: McGraw-Hill, 1966).
CAZELIS, Pierre, "Sherbrooke: sa place dans la vie de Relations des Cantons de
1'Est," Cahiers de Geographie de Quebec VIII (Avril-Septembre, 1969),
pp. 165-194.
CROSS, Kevin J., Urban Development in Canada, (unpublished Ph.D., Cornell, 1958).
DUBE, Yves et al., Housing and Social Capital Royal Commission on Canada's
Economic Prospects, vol. XXIII (Ottawa, 1957), Chapter II,
"Urbanization".
GOHEEN, Peter C. "The Central Places of Southern Ontario: A Geographic Study
of their External Relations", Unpubl. M.A. Clark Univ. 1964.
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tive Systems in Southern Ontario," Geografiska Annaler, LIIB (1969)
2 pp. 86-94.
GREER-WOOTTEN, Bryn The jpatial Structure of the Urban Field (Unpublished Ph.D.
McGill, 1968)~I
89
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HABITAT, "The Centennial Issue", X, No. 3-6 (1967)
HODGE, Gerald, "The Identification of 'Growth Poles' in Eastern Ontario"
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1966)
HODGE, Gerald, "The Prediction of Trade Center Viability in the Great Plains",
Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, XV
(1965) pp. 87-115.
HODGE, G., "Do Villages", Rural Sociology, XXXI (June, 1966).
KASAHARA, Yoshiko, "Profile of Canada's Metropolitan Areas," Queen's Quarterly,
LXX (Autumn, 1963) pp. 303-13.
KERR, Donald P., "Some Aspects of the Geography of Finance in Canada," Canadian
Geographer. IX (1965), pp. 175-192.
KERR, Donald P., "Metropolitan Dominance in Canada," in John Warkentin (ed.)
Canada, A^Geographical Interpretation (Methuen: Toronto, 1968).
KERR, Donald P. and SPELT, Jacob, "Some Aspects of Industrial Location in
Southern Ontario", Canadian Geographer 1960, pp. 12-25.
KING, Leslie, J., "Discriminant Analysis of Urban Growth Patterns in Ontario
and Quebec, 1951-1961." Annals of the A.A.G. LVII (1967) pp.566-578.
KING, Leslie, J. "Cross-Sectional Analyses of Canadian Urban Dimensions, 1951
and 1961," Canadian Geographer, X, 4 (1966), pp. 205-24.
KIRK, Donald W., "Southwestern Ontario; The Areal Pattern of Urban Settlement
in 1850" unpublished Ph.D. Northwestern, 1949.
KISSLING, C.C., "Linkage Importance in a Regional Highway Network", Canadian
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(Toronto: Methuen, 1968): Particularly Lithwick and Paquet "Urban
Growth and Regional Contagion"; and Pine "Social Consequences of
Urbanization".
MARSHALL, John V., The Location of Service Towns (University of Toronto,
Department of Geography, Research Publication No. 3, 1970).
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Hegemony, 1680-1875," Canadian Historical Review, XXII (June, 1941)
pp. 133-146.
MAXWELL, James W., "The Functional Structure of Canadian Cities: A Classi-
fication," Geographical Bulletin, VII, 2 (1965), pp. 79-104.
MURDIE, Robert, "Cultural Differences in Consumer Travel," Economic Geography,
XLI (July, 1965), pp. 211-233.
90
-------
PARKER, W.H. "The Towns of Lower Canada in the 1830's," in R.P. Beckinsale and
J.M. Houston (eds.) Urbanization and Its Problems (Oxford: Basil
Blackwell, 1963).
PEARSON, Norman A., "Conurbation Canada," Canadian Geographer, IV, 4 (1961)
pp. 101-107.
PEARSON, Norman, "From Villages to Cities", N.M.S. Careless and R.C. Brown (eds.)
The Canadians, 1867-1967 (Toronto, 1967).
RACINE, Jean-Bernard, "La Croissance de Grand-Montreal au Sud du Saint Larent:
Le Cas de Saint Bruno de Montarville" Revue de Geographic de Montreal
(1967) XXI, 1, pp. 111-148.
RACINE, Jean-Bernard, "Exurbanization et raetamorphisim.e peri-urbain" Revue de
Geographic de Montreal, XXI, 2 (1967), pp. 313-342.
RASHLEIGH, Edward T., "Observations on Canadian Cities, 1960-61," Plan Canada.
Ill (September, 1962), pp. 60-77.
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Chicago, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 101, 1965).
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A Factorial Ecology of Canada," Papers and Proceedings pf_the Regional
Science Association, XXIII (1969). pp. 7-24.
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Canadian Cities," (Waterloo, University of Waterloo, Department of
Geography, 1968) - .
ROBINSON, Ira, M., New Industrial Towns on Canada's Research Frontier (Chicago:
University of Chicago, Department of Geography, Research Paper No. 73,
1962).
RDSSWURM, Lome, H., "Expanding Urbanization and Selected Agricultural Elements;
Case Study Southwestern Ontario, 1941-1961", Land Economics XLIII
(February, 1967), pp. 101-107.
RUSSWURM, Lome R. The Development of an Urban Corridor System, Toronto-
Stratford. 1941-1966, Report to the Regional Development Branch,
Ontario Department of Economics and Development, 1969.
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Report No. 12 (Regina: Queen's Printers, 1957).
SCHNORE, Leo F. and PETERSEN, Gene B., "Urban and Metropolitan Development in
the United States and Canada," Annals of the American Association of
Political and Social Science CCCXVI (1958) pp. 60-68.
SEMPLE, R.K., Regional Types of Variability within a System of Urban Places,
Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Ohio State University (Columbus,
Ohio: 1969).
91
-------
SEMPLE, R.K. "An Oblique 'Simple Structure1 Factor Analysis of Viability
Measures for Southern Ontario Towns," University of Toronto,
Department of Geography Discussion Paper No. 2 (October, 1969).
SEMPLE, R.K. and WANG, L.H., "A Geographical Analysis of Redundancy in the
Interurban Transportation Links," University of Toronto, Department
of Geography, Discussion Paper No. 5 (1970).
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1969). Chapters II, III and IV.
SLATER, David W., "Political Economy of Urban Changes in Canada," Queen's
Quarterly LXVII (Winter, 1960-61), pp.
SEMPLE, R. Keith, CASETTI, Emilio, and KING, Leslie, J., "The Determination of
the Optimal Number of Groupings in Classification Problems,"
Discussion Paper No. 10, Department of Geography, Ohio State University
(Columbus, Ohio, 1969).
SLATER, David W., "Decentralization of Urban People and Manufacturing Activity
in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science
XXVII (February, 1961), pp. 72-84.
SPELT, Jacobj Urban Development of South-Central Ontario (Assen, Netherlands:
Van Gorcuni, 1955).
STONE, Leroy 0. Urban Development in Canada (Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of
Statistics, 1967).
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(Ottawa: Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1969).
TROTIER, Louis, Some Function Characteristics of the Main Service Centers of
the Province of Quebec Melange geographiges Canadiens affect a Raoul
Blanchard Quebec Les Presses Universitaires Laval, 1959, pp. 243-59.
also Cahiers de Geographic de Quebec HI, (Apr-Sept. 1959) 6, pp.
243-59.
WATSON, J. Wrefred, "Urban Development in the Niagara Peninsula," Canadian
Journal of Economics and Political Science, IX (Nov. 1943)
pp. 463-486.
WHEBRLL, C. "Corridors: A Theory of Urban Systems," Annals of the Association
of American Geographers, LIX (March, 1969), pp. 1-26.
92
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APPENDIX 5
Student Projects
1. A Gaming Model of the Pre-Industrial City
2. Socialist City Gaue
3. Interstate
93
-------
Appendix 6
THE MUNIFICENT HEXAGON
Geography 52
Final Examination
Professor John Sorcmer
94
-------
THE MUNIFICENT HEXAGON
Introduction:
The Munificent Hexagon is a gaming examination for students of
urban geography. The student is the Player and the professor is the
Guide in a game that takes the form of an oral examination. The questions
asked are determined, in part by chance, and in part by the play of the
student. The game encompasses the whole course and is designed to be as
fair as possible to all players. The aim of the game is to accumulate as
many points as possible up to 1000 in forty minutes by traversing the. game
board answering questions (where possible) on each space where the Player's
piece lands.
The game is flexible in that the Player may chose (within some
constraints) from what parts of the course he or she will answer questions,
may choose between general or specific types of questions, and may (in certain
circumstances) quiz the professor and grade his answer.
The game is played on an hexagonal playing board that is made up of
nodes, arcs and links, each of which is labeled so that the player may direct
his piece to the portion of the board where he chooses to answer questions.
On the next page an example of the board is presented, and on the following
pages are the rules of play and a description of the different parts of the
game.
95
-------
96
-------
RULES
Procedure:
1. Play begins when the player rolls two dice and moves his
piece from the Golden Pot as many segments as are shown on
the upper faces of the dice.
2. Upon reaching a node the piece may be moved either to the
right or left along an arc.
3. No link may be retraced toward the Golden Pot without first
landing on an arc segment. A link may be retraced toward a node.
4. No arc may be retraced without first landing on another arc's
segment or on a link segment.
5. Landing On (a segment or node) means the termination point of any
roll of the dice where this point may be arrived at from only one
direction—in other words, the player may not roll a "six" and
advance four and then retreat two so that only two "real space"
segments would have been traversed.
6. When an arc or link question has been landed on the player must
either answer or refuse to answer it, but in either case that
segment is neutral thereafter.
7. If a player lands on a neutralized segment (shown by some marker)
he or she may choose to move to the next "live" segment or roll again.
8. The game ends when forty minutes have elapsed, or when there are
no more arc segments, link segments, question cards, dissertation
cards, or free dissertation possibilities remaining.
Points:
Points are almost always awarded by the Guide. Below is a table of
point totals with a column showing the suggested number of minutes for answering
a question. Keep in mind that a minute is worth about twenty-five points.
97
-------
Type of Award Tot?.! ?cjntc POP; I".IF
Free Dissertation 200 5 minutes
Dissertation 200 7
Arc Questions 100 4
Link Questions 20 1
Question (available after 500) 50 2
Query Cards (redeemable) 15 0
Golden Pot 10 (each landing) 0
Links'
Six links are the spokes of the Hexagon, tying the nodes to the Golden
Pot. Each link is divided into seven segments and each segment bears a question
related to the two arc topics connected to the node; thus, Link 1 is connected
to the Query node and bears questions related to Berry's book and to Other
Readings. These questions are the most specific in the game, are worth twenty
points and are awarded at the discretion of the director.
Arcs:
There are six arcs on the Hexagon, each divided into eight segments, and
bounded by a node at each terminus. Seven of the arc-segments are questions
and one arc-segment is a Chance (see Chance Cards). Each arc deals with a
different part of the reading for the Geography 52 course and thay are clearly
labelled as such, thus:
Arc 1: Berry's book
Arc 2: Other Reading
Arc 3: Cities as Areas and Surfaces
Arc 4: Breese's book
Arc 5: City Model
Arc 6: Cities as Points and Lines
The questions on the arcs tend to be general in nature relative to link
questions, but not as general as Dissertation questions (see Dissertation Cards).
A maximum of 100 points may be received for an answer to an arc question and points
9 8
are awarded at the discretion of the Guide.
-------
Nodes:
There are seven nodes on the Munificent Hexagon, one at the renter
called the Golden Pot, and six which define the joins between two arcs and a
link. These nodes have different requirements and possibilities:
1. Query: a player receives a Query Card when he lands on this
node (see Query Card).
2. Dissertation: a player receives a Dissertation Card when he or
she lands on this noue (see Dissertation Card)
3. Free Dissertation: A player who lands on either of the two Free
Dissertation nodes must immediately present a dissertation
of at least five minutes duration. This dissertation may
be on any topic in urban geography, and may receive up to
200 points at the discretion of the Guide. Once landed
upon, the node is neutralized and is, thereafter, like any
arc or link segment that has been covered.
4. Free Passage: Allows the player to advance immediately to any arc
or link segment, but not to any node or to the Golden Pot.
5. Question: If a player who has accumulated at least 500 points lands
on this node he or she may formulate a question for the Guide
to answer. The Guide has two minutes to complete his ansver.
The Player then decides how many points (0 to 50) to assign
for the answer and subtracts this from the total possible
(50), and adds the residual to his or her score.
6. The Golden Pot: is the origin of play, and can, if chosen, also
be the end of play (see Benevolent Chance Cards). This
central place is nearest to all other places in the game and,
when passed through, allows the player to choose what link
to follow. In other words, if a player is headed potward,
(said to be "going to pot"), on a link and rolls a number
99
-------
that carries hla further than the Golden Pot, he may
choose any of the other five links for exit to an arc.
Should the player roll a number that allows him to land
directly on the Golden Pot he or she receives ten points
:v.d the option to traverse any of the six links in exit
to an arc.
Query Cards:
There are nineteen Query Cards, three for each arc of the Hexagon, plus
one Unencumbered Query. Query cards are acquired during the course of play when
the player lands on the Query node, and nay be retained until they are needed.
When a player reaches an impass while attempting to answer a question
he or she may play a Query card (if one has been obtained that corresponds to the
arc from which the question is drawn) and the Guide will provide a clue to the
answer. The Uniarumbeired Quary may be used at any time for any arc or link.
No points are awarded for t'ue cards as such, but any unplayed cards in
<;he plsyer's possession at the end of the game cay be redeemed for fifteen points
earn.
Chance Cards:
There are a total of nineteen Chance Cards, divided into three kinds:
advance and retreat cards which direct the player to go forward or backward •
certain number of spaces; relocation cards which direct the player to go to a
certain arc location, and point challenge cards which allow a player (after 500
points have been attained) to challenge the Guide's decision to allocate a certain
number of points for an answer.
Advance and retreat cards require the player to move even though the new
location has* already been exhausted. The player must simply roll again. Re-
location cards may send a player to a particular segment only if that segment is
unused. If it has been neutralized the player rolls again.
Point challenges are discussed after the play at an agreed upon time.
100
-------
Dissertation Cards:
When a player lands on Dissertation he or she receives a card with
a topic on It. The player nay play this card at any tine by potting it on
the board and speaking to the topic, however* a player nay accumulate only
one dissertation card, thus, if a dissertation card is held and the dissertation
node is landed upon again, the player must make his dissertation immediately.
He then mist draw another dissertation card to hold until he chooses, or is
forced, to use it.
The dissertation topics tend toward generality and synthesis and
result in the award of 200 points for a totally successful dissertation. The
Guide awards the points.
Benevolent Chances:
A Pile of Benevolent Chances await the player who terminates his game
at the Golden Pot. The player who terminates his game in this manner draws a
card from the pile and receives a material reward.
101
-------
APPENDIX 7
BLUE CITY VIDEOTAPE
This videotape is available through the
Office of Instructional Services, Fairbanks Hall,
Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755.
102
-------
APPENDIX 8
R Type //
flow —
flow —
flow —
Fa.ll
Sales
Economic A
Net Income
88 779.217
245 612.725
75 119.9
237 216.357
46 642.691
255 757.842
Sales
109 634.53
-34 454.534
7 RA
RB
RC
NS
PQ
4
2
1
1
i
7 360
20 298
24 926
106 589.05
«;/• oon
2 744
7 535
9 088
14 357.065
_on 7fift ^ft9
7 360
25 885
25 066
112 199
50 969.636
Net Income
4 RA
RB
RC
NS
PS
flow
5 RA
RB
RC
NS
PS
4
2
1
1
1
R3
—
4
2
1
1
1
5 821
9 433
25 066
105 544.05
27 302
122 793.743
98 591.779
5 495
9 316
25 066
102 409.05
43 240
1 818
2 328
8 917
9 380.295
-12 036.334
226 818.341
230 967.670
1 938
3 183
9 238
12 561.524
-21 846.184
5 772
9 329
25 066
105 544.05
26 367
108 990.74
5 446
9 329
25 066
102 409.05
36 020
1 786
2 214
8 975
10 970.049
-12 471.57
235 906.631
1 936
3 244
9 296
12 580.296
-12 157.12
261 008.038
6 RA
RB
RC
NS
PS
4
2
1
1
1
6 580
11 615
24 926
104 500
49 830
2 464
4 277
9 009
13 594.453
-19 832.314
6 066
9 473
25 066
104 500
40 726.5
2 181
3 413
9 155
12 998.238
-37 580.2
225 366.523
2 833
10 110
9 237
14 621.324
295 100.39
103
-------
Economic B
R Type It
flow —
flow —
flow —
Sales
Net Income
62 960.797
120 433.067
56 516.886
116 452.045
69 546.428
128 997.721
Sales
66 481.736
34 730.673
7 RA
RB
BS
PS
PG
5
3
1
1
1
4 755
12 750
179 800
59 726.5
133 362
1 528
3 959
-4 051.17
1 745.732
4 138.494
4 249
14 168
202 180
114 710
65 977
-45 181.293
Net Income
4 RA
RB
BS
PS
flow
5 RA
RB
BS
PS
PG
4
2
1
1
R3
—
4
3
1
1
1
3 841
7 560
103 400
64 733
138 350.714
83 210.526
-4 253
12 041
170 100
56 857.5
240
854
2 510
6 678.312
3 043.54
127 066.687
75 502.211
1 236
1 559
-7 976.19
2 346.335
-12 799.8
4 421
7 560
118 580
65 198.5
78 923.08
4 249
12 041
171 200
63 536
240
1 194
2 536
9 078.846
3 235.06
76 874.765
1 243
1 624
-3 462.33
3 160.834
-10 350.3
129 614.006
6 RA
RB
•BS
PS
PG
5
3
1
1
1
4 253
11 994
174 300
61 313
100 197
1 277
2 935
-6 275.37
2 194.902
-894.5
4 249
11 994
182 700
61 173
65 866.5
1 297
3 012
1 179.351
1 238.64
-4 621.738
114 689.832
1 311
4 259
7 915.229
-52 096.52 PS2
-5 396.338
77 101.265
104
-------
Economic C
R Type //
Sales
Net Income
Sales
Net Income
J I
4 RA
RB
RC
LI
BG
HI
flow
5 RA
RB
RC
LI
BG
HI
6 •
1
1
1
1
1
R3
—
6
1
1
1
1
1
3 775
5 670
9 858
17 135
421 520
143 895.735
64 525.758
83 357.879
3 853
5 805
9 858
50 977.893
412 280
140 122.307
875
406
2 590
-29 649.32
30 890.992
14 627.029
258 405.668
360 551.439
1 329
1 857
3 336
-4 699.091
29 138.097
11 914.031
3 775
5 805
9 972
57 155
414 260
159 884.15
108 543.961
3 800
5 805
9 972
50 977.893
413 930
150 194.15
815
492
2 676
-2 361,82
29 404.714
19 423.48
385 747.521
1 334
1 876
3 421
-4 631,591
29 341.453
14 854.735
flow —
109 824.775
390 271.899
139 044.083
419 491.207
6 RA
RB
RC
LI
BG
HI
6
1
1
1
1
1
4
9
9
73
423
153
913
988
858
592.
500
424.
447
15
1
1
3
3
30
16
715
836
256
553.
332.
351.
226
599
061
4
9
9
102
427
148
863
941
972
556.09
020
189.679
1
- 1
3
14
31
12
723
878
352
063.641
723.368
948.28
flow —
53 477.448
455 313.789
199 398.202
470 104.543
7 RA
RB
RC
LI
BG
.HI
T>r
6
1
i
1
1
1
i
5 108
11 414
9 858
75 775.154
462 660
137 180
1 819
3 932
3 297
3 9^2.006
34 566.333
10 549.451
4 863
9 987
9 972
105.569.1
455 840
161 500
0
1 732
3 296
3 420
!/• 582.739
34 608.51
18 864.212
-22 502.3
flow —
89 008.79
505 423.387
181 698.028
567 476.626
105
-------
TOTALS A. B. C.
R Type #
Sales
Net Income
Sales
Net Income
4 RA
RB
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
flow
5 RA
RB
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
PG
14
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
R3
—
14
6
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
13
22
34
143
17
105
103
421
92
325
265
13
27
34
140
50
102
170
412
100
437
663
924
895.735
135
544.05
400
520
035
670.215
160.184
601
162
924
122.307
977.893
409.05
100
280
097.5
240
3
5
11
14
-29
9
6
30
-8
612
667
4
6
12
11
-4
12
-7
29
-18
-12
547
244
507
627.
649.
380.
678.
890.
992.
290.
021.
503
599
574
914.
699.
561.
976.
138.
499.
799.
029
32
295
312
992
794
696
32
031
091
524
19
097
849
8
13
22
35
159
57
105
118
414
91
296
13
27
35
150
50
102
171
413
99
968
694
038
884.
155
544.
580
260
565.
457.
495
175
038
194.
977.
409.
200
930
556
240
15
05
5
781
15
893
05
3
5
11
19
-2
10
9
29
-9
698
4
6
12
14
-4
12
_o
29
-8
-10
795
242
651
423.48
361.82
970.049
078.846
404.714
236.51
528.917
513
744
717
854.735
631.591
580.296
462.33
341.453
996.286
350.3
flow —
261 564.789
756 317.691
6
RA
RB
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
PG
15
6
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
15
33
34
153
73
104
174
423
111
100
746
597
784
424.15
592.441
500
300
500
143
197
5
9
12
16
3
13
-6
30
-17
456
048
265
351.
553,
594.
275.
332.
637.
-894.
061
226
453
37
599
412
5
flow—
7 RA 15
RB 6
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
PG
flow
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
185114.234
17 223
44 462
34 784
137 180
75 775.154
106 589.05
179 800
462 660
113 946.5
133 362
205 197.909
808982.191
6 091
15 426
12 385
10 549.451
3 942.006
14 357.065
-4 051.17
34 566.333
-18 960.77
4 138.494
890 178.95
315 160.349
15 178
31 408
35 038
148 189.679
102 556.09
104 500
182 700
427 020
101 899.5
65 866.5
199674.341
16 472
50 040
35 038
161 500
105 569.1
112 199
202 180
455 840
114.710
65 977
187 486.371
810 113.251
5 201
8 303
12 507
12 948.28
14 063.641
12 998.238
1 179.351
31 723.368
-36 341.56
-4 621.738
810160.898
5 876
17 665
12 657
18 864.212
14 582.739
14 621.324
7 915.229
34 608.51
-52 096.52
-27 898.638
939 678.281
PG 2
106
-------
Examination by sector, E-E, E-F, E-G
abs. Sales: growth
net income: profitability
Sector's profits in
balance net worth
Old
Type #
RA 5
RB 1
RC 2
HI 1
PG 2
flow —
(cash bal
RA 5
RB 1
RC 2
HI 1
PG 2
flow
RA 5
RB 1
RC 2
HI 1
PG 2
flow —
RA 5
RB 1
RC 2
HI 1
PG 2
flow --
RA 5
RB 2
RC 1
Cl 1
flow —
RA 5
RB 2
RC 1
Cl 1
flow --
Sales ('OOOs
9057
2240
10425
169289.1
216628
.) 116556.636
8947"
2240
11562
135174.735"
20766
78243.112"
8947
2240
14829 ,.
162449.1"
148040
57615.557"
8877
2240
17735
17100
108729
48238.278"
4441
12301
10087
106100
114426.338
4824*
20287*
48000"
31368.986"
Economic E
Net Income
3053
569
1111
23823.254
21788.877
Sprmfl
New '
Sales
9517
2133
9495
157815.061
223640
Net Income
3300
545
270
19242.372
24250.222
(nw) 463086.263
3077*
767+
2441
9406.026_
-984.156
485000.508*
3037"
753;
4081
20389.803^
-18364.953"
502580.336*
3023"
759+
5499
23529.124"*"
37017.736"
454378.691"
Economic F
140117.566
9517
2133
11355
145776.675"
203426"
103496.274"
9517
2133
11355
138081^735*"
176970
104704,272^
10237
2133_
11295
159410
166532"
91074.764"
1454
4179
3333
20181.732
242135.231
1607*
5178
6731
6178.974"
4441
12301
10087
171100
10894.582
4876*
14681*
20175
48000
285202.696
2692.761
469107.193
3383*
719+
2322
13754.679"
-4790.257"
492713.670*
3173"
706
2374
10776.012
-10886.014
508379.0514
3229
719*
2371 '
19911.809
-29069.256"
515309. 577H
1457
4200
3282
34422.321
237603.475
1653*
5183
6913
6178.974"
280796.471^
107
-------
Old
New
Round Type//
flow —
RA
RB
RC
Cl
5
2
1
1
Sales
RA
RB
RC
Cl
5
2
1
1
5064"
15936;;
2U80
26400"
flow -- -
161462.778
5064
15936
21480"
159600
6106476.866"
180000
Net Income
1717
5694"
7400
1593.805"
319791.237"*
1892*
6485];
8339
26054.795
-6731053.004"
6138
Sales
4876
14681
20288
33500"
127559.36+
4876
14681
20061"
109000
158928.531*
Net Income
1639"
5106"
6809"
2603.163"
293283.022"*
1656*
5183];
6836
19496.555
327355.585"*
593 354 100
RA
RB
RC
LI
NS
6
2
1
1
1
7532
7083
10385
230000
97544.922
flow
flow —
RA
RB
RC
LI
NS
6
2
1
1
1
flow —
RA
RB
RC
LI
NS
6
2
1
1
1
170601.160
RA
RB
RC
LI
NS
6
2
1
1
1
7532
7083
10385
223098"
102409.050
flow —
201243.528
8682
7083
20886];
225398^
104500
258557.483"*
9710*
8107];
25064*
234598
106589.050
320654.016"*
Economic G
2553
1778
3452
33426.912
10799.071
408560.065
2371"
2447
2482"
34582.655];
11678.278
433263.482+
2981+
1840"
6997
35718.855];
13989.136
517847.718+
3361*
2369];
9141
41034.611];
14822.555"1"
590381.576"*"
7584
7083
10268
109250
83213.151
158449.120
7584
6972"
10385
217409.001
102409.050
179155.6344
8634*
9212];
20768];
225398];
104500
241689.041"*
8682*
9212
20302"
234598
106589.050
227446.425"
2609
1810
3424
15764.344
7116.908
311106.025
2421~
1850
2513"
32097.637^
11697.050
419794.788"*
2980*
3120];
7015
35949.923^
13387.148
509261.208"*
3037*
3163
6867"
39710.622^
13912.311
509157.185"
108
-------
Round Type //
Totals
Sales
Old
('OOOs)
Sectors E, F, G
Net Income
Sales
New
Net Income
RA
RB
RC
HI
PG
Cl
LI
NS
16
5
4
1
2
1
1
1
21030
21624
30897
169289.1
216628
106100
230000
97544.922
flow —
RA 16
flow —
RA 16
RB
RC
HI
PG
Cl
LI
NS
5
4
1
2
1
1
1
flow —
RA 16
RB
RC
HI
PG
Cl
LI
NS
5
4
1
2
1
1
1
401584.134
21303+
RB
RC
HI
PG
Cl
LI
NS
5
4
1
2
1
1
1
24124"
42234
135174. 735~
207766~
48000~
223098'
102409.050
flow --
310855.626
22693*
25259^
57195
162449.1
148040"
26400"
225398*
104500
477635.818H
23651*
26283*
64279^
171000
108729"
159600^
234598
106589.050
548892+
7060
6526
7896
23823.254
21788.877
20181.732
33426.912
10799.071
1113781.559
7055~
8392];
11656
9406.026"
-984.156"
6178.974"
34582.655^
11678.278
1593.805
35718.855^
13989.136
1340219.291"1
8276^
9613];
22979
23529.124
037017.736"
26054.795^
41034.6ir
14822.555
1398861+
21582
21517
29850
157815.061
223640
171100
109250
83213.151
408461.268
21979^
23786^;
41915
145776.675"
203426"
48000
217409.001
102409.050
1203466.686
7735+
8287" .
18478
20389.803
-18364.953"
309614.669
23027*
26026]]
52411
138081.735
176970"
33500
2253987
104500
473952.676H
23795+
26026
51658"
159410
166532"
109000];
234598
106589.050
7366
6555
6976
19242.372
24250.222
34422.321
15764.344
7116.908
1017817.493
6886"
7752*
11748
13754.679"
-4790.257"
6178.974"
32097.637^
11697.050
1191304.929"*
7792*
8932];
16197
10776.012"
-10886.014"
2603.163"
35949.923^
13387.148
1310923.281*
7922*
9065
16074"
19911.809
-29069.256"
19496.555^
39710.622^
13912.311
109
-------
R Type i?
4 RA
RL
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
GB
PS
PG
Cl
flow
R RA
5 RB
RC
HI
LI
N5
BS
BG
PS
PG
Cl
flow
R RA
6 RB
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
PG
Cl
30
10
6
2
2
o
1
1
2
2
1
—
30
11
6
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
1
—
31
11
6
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
1
traii
r 1* 11
Old
Sales
34 467
44 287
65 821
313 184.835
24? 135
203 088.972
103 400
421 520
92 035
216 628
106 100
666 744
34 904
51 286
77 158
275 297~
274 076
204 818
17C 10°
412 280
100 098
208 006~
48 000~
572 421"
38 439
58 856
91 979
315 873
298 990
209 000
174 300
423 500
111 143
248 237
26 400"
lUiALi A, n, L,
Net Income
10 614
11 770
19 403
38 450.283
3 777.592
20 179.366
6 678
30 891
-8 993
21 788
20 182
1780 802
11 558
14 991
24 230
21 320
29 884
24 240
-7 976
29 138"
-18 500
-13 784
6 179
1959 783
13 191
17 335
30 743
36 741
39 272
27 583
-6 275
30 333
-17 637
-19 260
1 594
z, r , (j f •
New
Sales
35 550
44 211
64 488
317 699.211
166 405
188 757.201
li.8 530
41 A 260
91 566
223 640
171 100
704 919
35 474"
50 961
76 953
295 971
268 387
204 818
171 200
413 930
99 556
203 666~
48 000
624 774~
38 973
57 434
87 449
286 271
327 954
209 000
182 700
427 020
101 899
242 837
33 500~
A A
^9
Net Income
11 161
11 797
18 627
38 665.852
13 402.524
18 086.957
9 079
29 405
-9 237
24 250
34 422
1716 346
11 399
14 496
24 465
28 610
27 466
24 277
-3 462"
29 341"
-8 996
-15 140"
6 179"
2001 417
13 123
17 235
28 704
23 724"
50 013
26 385
1 179
31 723
-36 342
-15 508~
2 603
flow —
662 750
2149 201
7 RA
RB
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
PG
Cl
31
11
6
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
1
40
70
99
308
310
213
179
462
113
242
159
874
745
063
180
3/3
178
800
660
946
091
600
14
25
35
34
44
29
-4
34
-18
-32
26
367
039
364
078
976
180
051
566
961
879'
055
flow —
754 090
2289 040
673 627
40 267
76 066
86 696"
320 910
340 167
218 788
202 180
455 840
114 710
232 509"
109 000
664 936"
2121 083
13 798
26 730
28 731
38 776
54 294
28 533
7 915
34 609
-52 097"
-56 968"
19 497
2291 500
110
-------
a
_ A
* A
0-
cs !••»••• r),<
(D
3
a
H-
-------
\ \
c-a
- 1C CCC
\
(\
\\
\\
\ \
\v
\
\
\
\
\
\
\
c, H-t
: ?G
7
-------
\
) co,ceo
Z5.CCC
o-
f
7
0» Is
V* A^t v-J
-------
r T
/.A" «.<'<•
„ c
—i>
--a
__ .— a^i
ci
c RTi,
01 M
S RC /C
Rev
-------
Oi
Ci Ci
%-*,U<
-------
-------
a Krt
c KB
d R£,
0 RC
-------
./Vv\ 1. ......
ICC
00
ioc .ceo
o
4
—- o ,p
7
n\ LJ cicx
O —
5*
7
-Rr^ntC
-------
iI.'*'.,i
-------
APPENDIX 10
City - wide Data A B'C E F 6
Profitability » (net income) - (sales)
Round Type #
4 RA 30
RB 10
RC 6
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
PG
Cl
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
RA 31
RB 11
RC
HI
LI
NS
BS
BG
PS
PG
Cl
6
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
1
OLD
.308
.266
.295
.123
.015
.099
.065
.073
-.098
.101
.190
.343*
.294];
.334*
.116*
.131]]
.132*
.036^
• 0721
.159
.078"
.060"
NEW
.314
.267
.287
.122
.081
.096
.077
.071
-.101
.108
.201
•337t
.300*
.328
.083"
.152*
.128*
.006*
.074
-.357"
-.064
.078"
Round
30
11
6
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
1
31
11
6
2
2
2
1
1
2
3
1
OLD
.331^
.292^
.314
.077"
.109
.351^
.354^
.357
.111"
.145}
.137^
-.023?
.075
-.166"
-.136"
.163
NEW
.32lJ
.284^
.318
.097"
.102
.118
.047"
.071"
.185"
.066"
.129"
,119T
-.020"
.071
-.090
-.074"
.129"
.343"
.351.
.331
.160
.130^
.039
.076
-.454"
-.245"
.179"*
120
-------
Results (part 2)
Growth (percent)
Period
Rounds
4 -
5 -
6 -
4 -
5
6
7
7
Net Worth
OLD
10.05
9.67
6.51
28.54
Cash Balance
NEW
16.61
5.98
8.03
33.51
OLD
-14.15
15.78
13.78
13.10
NEW
-11.37
7.82
- 1.29
- 5.67
City Popul;
OLD 1
11.39 :
11.20 ]
6.42
31.83 :
Liquidity « (cash balance) ~ (net worth)
Round OLD
4
5
6
7
NEW
.374
.292
.308
.329
.411
.312
.318
.290
121
-------
Appendix 11 ' '-": y<"U".\>.
900 bflf ' __________ ...... _. . .._
910 LPTA .308* .31 ** .C
-------
1C LAI A .099, .096, • 1 lb, . 1 19, . 13f;, . U:8, . 137, • 13
UN
u thhEL 29 MAY 71 15:23
THE CfcKKELAIlfcN COEFFICIENT = 0.983
0.112 SEC. 15 I/O
KEAUY
910 L/A1A .065, . 077 , - . 0*7 , - . 02, - . 036, .00f,-.023, .039
hbN
t feKHEL 29 MAY 71 lb:24
THE CfchhtLAlleN CBEFUCIENI = 0.913 B^
0. 1 14 bE.C. 1 b 1 /fc
HEADY
910 L-ATA .073, .07 1, .07 1, .07 1, .072, .07^., .075, .076
KLN
CfchhE-L 29 MAY 71 lb:28
THE CfeJhhtLAU^ C0EFFIUEN1 = 0.717
0. 108 SEC. Ib I /i,
KEALY
910 UA1A -.OVb,-. 101,-. 18b,-.09*-» 159*--357,-.166*--454
KUN
CfchhEL 29 MAY 71 lb:3C
THE CfchFvE.LA1ieN COEFFICIENT = 0.308
0.109 SEC. 15 I /fc
fvEALY
910 LA7A. . 101, - 108, -.066*- .07 *, - . 078, -.064,-. 136, -.2^5
hbN
C0HKEL 29 MAY 71 15:31
THE CehhELAIIBN CBEFFICIEN1 = 0.9^9
0.112 SEC. 151/0
KEADY
910 LA7A . 19, .201, . 129, • 129*. 06, .078,. 163, • 179
hUN
CfchhEL 29 MAY 71 15:3?
THE C6hhELATI0N COEFFICIENT = 0.99 C\
0.117 SEC. 15 1/0
hEALY
123
-------
c -:• t k ^ r •'<. U-vl i : ' • i •>
900 DATA 3
910 DATA 10.05, 16.61, 9.67*5.98, 6.51, 8. 03
KUN
C£hhEL 29 MAY 71 15:35
THE CBKKELAIIfcN C0EFFICIEN1 = 0.425 A
0*112 SEC. 151/0
h£AI>Y
910 L'ATA -14. 15*-11. 37* 15.78*7.82, 13.78*-!. 29
hUN
29 MPY 71 15:36
THE C0hhELA1I£N CEEFFIC1ENT « 0.907 A Cr.iK
0.107 SEC. 15 1/0
KEADY
910 UA1A 11.39*10.75*11.2*11.11*6.42*7.97
hUN
CfchhEL 29 MAY 71 15; 37
THE CehhELAllBN C0EFFICIEN1 = 0«99 A ^c
0.110 SEC. 15 1/0
KEADY
900 DATA 4 1_ . r. ~. AHu
910 DATA .374, .41 1* .292, .312* .308, .318*.329* .29' •
KUN . k ,
CfcKKEL 29 MAY 7 1 15:39
THE C0KKELA1IfcN C0EFFICIEN1 = 0.805 r M,-V,C ,7
0.104 SEC. 15 1/0
KEADY
900 DATA 3
910 DATA .374* .41 1* .292* .312, .308, >318
KbN
CfchfcEL 29 MAY 71 15:40
THE CBfcKELATieN C0EFF1CIEN1 = 0-991 rounds ^^^
0.109 SEC. 15 1/0
KEADY
124
-------
900 DATA 3 <~ 'VM *•«*-'-'<.>. r. r. . -.;.
910 DATA 10.05*11.39*9.67*11.2*6.51*6.42
hUN
CfchhEL 29 MAY 71 15:43
THE CfchhELATIBN C0EFFICIENT = 0.998 A AXT tvcv-v. Ci A "rr ..^'K-, .'-•
0.117 SEC. 15 I/O
hEADY
910 DATA 16.61*10.75*5.98*11.11*8.03*7.97
hUN
CfchhEL £9 MAY 71
THE CehfcELATI0N CKEFFICIENl = 0.234
0.117 SEC. 15 1/0
hEAUY
1*910 DATA 10. 05»-14. 15*9.67* 15.78*6.51* 13.78
C0RhEL 29 MAY 71 15:^9
THE CBhhELAIIBN C0EFFICIEN7 = -0.533 ^
0.115 SEC. 15 1/0
hEADY
910 DATA 16.61,-! 1.37*5. 98*7. 82*8.03*-!. 29
Ft UN
CEhhEL 29 MAY 71 15: 51
THE C0hhELATI0N C0EFFICIENT = -0.952 &
0.107 SEC. 15 I/B
hEADY
125
-------
Chapter VII
CITY MODEL USAGE FOR COURSES IN
REAL ESTATE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
by
Maury Seldin
Professor and Director
Urban Development Studies
The American University
126
-------
CITY MODEL USAGE FOR COURSES IN
REAL ESTATE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT 12S
Instructor 128
Use of Model 128
Use of Model in Research 131
Professional Background 133
Course Development
THE COURSE I42
Course Objectives 14 2
Course Structure 147
DYNAMICS 150
Familiarization with the Model 150
Trend of Play 151
Economic Base 154
Business Cycle 154
Demographic Analysis 155
Housing Market Analysis 156
Appraisal 157
Land Use Studies 159
Interaction of Students
CONCLUSIONS I62
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CITY MODEL USAGE FOR COURSES IN
REAL ESTATE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
by
Maury Seldin
Professor and Director
Urban Development Studies
The American University*
BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT
Instructor
Use of model. The instructor's first experience with
gaming was with CLUG in the fall of 1967, when he taught
a capstone course for real estate majors in the School of
Business Administration of The American University, entitled
"Seminar in Real Estate Administration. " The purpose of
this integrating seminar was to provide the student with an
opportunity to bring to bear the substantive knowledge from
various courses' in the solution of problems the student would
be expected to face as a decision-maker.
CLUG, a manually operated Game, was comparatively
simple in contrast with the computerized models such as
City I and City II. Initially, the emphasis was upon
* The author wishes to acknowledge the assistance of
Robert P. Jones in the preparation of the last section of
this paper.
128
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analyses useful in investment decisions, for example, market
analyses, valuations, and forecasts of city growth and struc-
ture.
The course next used the game "Region" which was in-
vented during the 1967-1968 school year. "Region" handled
more variables and permitted greater emphasis on analyses
of local economic structure and the administration of economic
environment.
One of the doctoral students playing the Game was able
to clearly identify a complex set of relationships structured
in the Model and tie them to the existing literature. In
general, the students were able to see how the principles
they had been taught were applied to real world situations, or
at least to a simulation of those situations.
The students in that graduate class found the urban
environment mismanaged and impeding the achievement of
their objectives. To meet the problem, they applied to the pub-
lic sector entrepreneurial talents previously used in the private
sector. The result was a more favorable environment for their
private interests and better performance by the public sector.
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Based on favorable experience in graduate classes, the
Game "Region" was introducted into a capstone undergrad-
uate course. The level of undergraduate student sophistica-
tion -was substantially different. These students had a high
interest in the Game but their lack of professional competence,
as compared to the graduate students, was evident. The
knowledge they had supposedly acquired did not come into play
when they had opportunities to apply it. The undergraduates
needed close instruction on the application of principles as
demonstrated by the Game. The approach taken was to as-
sign individual projects to each student which called for the
analyses necessary to solve a Game problem. Thus, the
student had more than an academic reason for learning or
relearning a facet of the body of knowledge or the analytical
technique.
The following year (1968) the graduate course used the
City I Model. The next year (19&9) a graduate course used
the City II Model. (City I was used for an undergraduate
class in the Spring of 1970.) The substance of this Chapter
will be a description of the use of the City Model, with
emphasis on the experience of the graduate class in the fall
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of 1970 and the undergraduate class in the spring of 1971.
Use of model in research. One of the great side bene-
fits of teaching is that the instructor learns as he teaches.
The old adage "If you want to learn a course, teach it, "
proved to be true.
At first, the approach to instruction was to let the
student get the joy of discovery as he played the model. The
student would learn principles from the Game only to dis-
cover that he had previously learned them in a different form.
The process taught well but slowly. In order to speed up the
process, the instructor explained the model and principles
early in the semester. While the mass of explanation was
readily
more than could be /digested, it did permit the students to
push deeper than they other-wise could have. As a result,
questions were asked on matters not previously covered in
the course. These questions turned out to be of the same
nature as those the instructor was concerned with in his
research. Indeed, the instructor first intended to use the
Game in connection with an approach to a research problem.
Many students attempted to conceptualize the relation-
ships brought to light by the events in the Game. They
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could then use their understanding of these relationships in
their decision-making processes. The real world decision-
maker is in the same position, except that he frequently
operates under the handicap of a lack of familiarity with the
body of knowledge.
The major thrust of the instructor's research effort was
to improve real estate and urban development decision-making
on the part of real world decision-makers as well as aspir-
ing students.
In this case the model served as a useful tool in handling
complex abstractions with which the instructor had to deal.
The models helped because they became progressively closer
to reality, adding subsystems and providing greater detail in
simulating the urban system. Thus, the instructor was able
to conceptualize a process of managing the urban development
system by conceptualizing the management of the subsystems
and their coordination. A view of the problem of managing
any subsystem had to be related to the total system. By suc-
cessively working more complex models, the instructor-
researcher was able to handle the more complex abstractions
on an incremental basis. This provided the basis for con-
ceptualization of a major research and demonstration project
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which is now under way.
That major research effort involves an approach to urban de-
velopment planning which applies planning, programming, and budget-
ing principles to the urban development process. Of special importance
are the criteria for balance in the system and methods of administration
where the power to control the process is strong but fractionalized. This
approach is further described in a paper entitled "Location of Residential
1
Development. "
A major output of this approach is information in a form usable to
decision-makers. The approach relies substantially on the power of
information as it may be used to influence decision-makers and on the
•
use of information in the political process.
The research on which the instructor is currently engaged is in
the design of this system on a pilot basis for Fairfax County, Virginia.
An operational system in the Game or in the real world, or both, would
provide a useful teaching device not only for university students but for
those who are making the decisions in the public and private sector.
Professional background. A set of value judgments or biases
may have been visible in the previous discussion. The value
system is one which holds that the use of a market
1 Maury Seldin, "Location of Residential Development, " Papers
Submitted to Subcommittee on Housing Panels on Housing Production,
Housing Demands, and Developing a Suitable Living Environment, Part I.
Committee on Banking and Currency, 92nd Congress, First Session. U.S.
Government Printing Office, June, 1971, pp. 243-262.
133
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mechanism is desirable at a. basic approach to economic
problems. While not the sole approach, it utilizes the pur-
suit of self-interest to achieve community objectives. (It
recognizes the important role of government in providing an
environment in which a private sector can operate. It fur-
ther recognizes the role of government in supplementing such
activities where the results are found wanting. In addition,
it recognizes the use of alternative means where the market
is not workable for various reasons. ) While this is no place
to expound various philosophical views, the aforementioned
information will be helpful to the reader in understanding the
assumptions which underlie the normative economic analysis
and hence the approach to business and government decision-
making.
The instructor received his formal education in business
administration. He has Bachelor of Science and Master of
Business Administration degrees from the University of Cali-
fornia, Los Angeles, with majors in real estate and urban
land economics. His doctoral degree is from Indiana Univer-
sity, School of Business Administration, in the fields of real
estate administration, business-government relations, finance,
money and banking, and applied economic analysis. His
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dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Business Administra-
tion was entitled "An Analysis of the Impact of the Firm on
Urban Plant Problems. " That dissertation, completed in
I960, explored the thesis that business firms in pursuing
their objectives may incidentally lessen community problems
through solving their own problems.
The professional mission of improving the quality of
real estate and urban development decisions has led to a
heavy emphasis on research concerned with improving insti-
tutional arrangements for the functioning of a free society.
The particular institutional arrangements under scrutiny are
those directed toward guiding market forces so that individuals
pursuing their own objectives will tend to contribute toward
the community's achievement of its objectives.
Specific research by the author in the public sector
areas includes the urban development information system now
being developed in Fairfax County, Virginia; a recently
completed demonstration project on a uniform building permit
system for the Washington metropolitan area, which system
would provide a data base for the aforementioned systemic
approach to urban development management; also a recently
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completed study of the impact of the construction moratorium
on the Washington metropolitan area. Other current or
recent consulting includes services rendered to the Subcommittee
on Housing of the- House Banking and Currency Committee, and
to the Office of Management and Budget, Executive Office of the
President, as well as to local planning and government authorities.
In the private sector, his work includes consulting for developers
and coauthorship of a recent book entitled Real Estate Investment
Strategy.
Professional association activities dealing with these problems
include service as Vice President and 1970 Program Chairman for
the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (the
theme for the program having been: "Meeting Housing Needs. ")
Other community services such as being President of the George
Washington Chapter of Lambda Alpha membership on the Urban
and Regional Affairs Committee of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce,
indicate a sustained effort to bridge the gap between academia and
real world decision-makers. The concern is to keep in touch with
what is happening and to assist in educating those who are or will
be decision-makers, especially by aiding them to understand how
the system operates and how it may be improved.
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The general objective includes increasing the effectiveness
with which we use our resources, especially land. The
improved management of our land resources is viewed as a
significant aid to the improvement of the management of the
other resources.
Course Development
The real estate curriculum at The American University
came into existence some twenty years ago. It started with
a Real Estate Law course transferred from the Sociology
Department at a time when there did not seem to be much
interest in real estate and urban development. Over the next
fifteen years a series of courses were developed which em-
phasized private sector decision-making. The sixteen real
estate and urban development courses offered in 1965 for
graduates and undergraduates revealed this emphasis. The
capstone course, an integrating Seminar in Real Estate
Administration, was added in 1965. It used case material
in order to give the students an opportunity to integrate
the substantive knowledge acquired in their various courses
and apply this knowledge to decision-making situations.
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The thrust of that course was the use of analysis in the ad-
ministrative process, focussing on typical real estate de-
i '• ' ' •
cisions of valuation, market analysis, location studies,
particularly in the context of an administrative problem.
When CLUG was introduced in the Seminar in 1967, it
was possible to use the simplified model as a basis for
conducting market analyses. In the Game, the data were
readily available and so the student could concentrate on
methodology rather than on the time-consuming and difficult
problems of gathering data. This was of significant assistance
in teaching because data are not generally available for all
the various kinds of analyses useful to demonstrate an under-
standing of the body of knowledge. "Region" provided a more
realistic model and the City models were substantial improvements
in the stimulation of the environment in which the decisions were
being made.
As the Games were being developed, so too was the
course. The emphasis changed from market analysis, valua-
tion, location studies and the like, to analyses relating to
the management of the real estate resource.
One of the great merits inherent in the study of real
138
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estate is that the resource has such distinguishing charac-
teristics that the analysis brings into focus principles which
might otherwise be clouded. Thus, the application of plan-
ning, programming and budgeting techniques to the admin-
istration of real estate development enterprise illustrates the
principles of balance necessary to get from here to there.
These same principles apply for the urban development
process. The Game is a useful device for explaining these
relationships as rthey apply to both business management and
land use management. Once the principles of land use
management are understood, the management of the urban
development process may be more readily grasped.
The Seminar integrates not only the real estate decision-
making from the firm-investor point of view, but also urban
land decision-making knowledge from, a community point of
view. The relationship between the two is also subject
matter for the course. While the title "Seminar in Real
Estate Administration" thus has become a misnomer, the
course continues to emphasize the real estate resources,
albeit in a context of urban problems as well as business
problems. Considerable attention is also given to the
139
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relationship between the two. While management of the
urban system is considered mainly in terms of an environ-
ment in which to do business, public administrators would
also find it useful in their work.
The undergraduate course entitled "Real Estate Admin-
istration" in which the Game has been used is likewise a
capstone course for the undergraduate real estate major.
Initially, the Game did not work as well in this course be-
cause the students did not have sufficient substantive knowl-
edge to integrate at the level of sophistication intended for
the course. Attempts to shore up this deficiency have been
made first by directing the student to conduct specific kinds
of analyses with specific references to the literature. This
has worked'reasonably well in that the students who have a
reason for wanting to understand a particular type of
analysis do a good job in pursuing the knowledge. However,
it has been necessary to transform the procedure into one
in which more readings are programmed into the course as
the Game progresses. The literature has not been designed
for this purpose, and so the progress, while adequate,
still leaves much room for further development.
140
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Because of curriculum changes at the undergraduate
level, a new course in urban development is to be offered
in the fall of 1971 ir, which the Game will be utilized as a
way of introducing the student to the body of knowledge. The
old capstone course -will go by the wayside and a new course
focussing on investment decisions will take its place. The
elementary course which is intended for undergraduate
students of various majors in business administration focusses
on the urban development process. It is anticipated that it
will include the set of readings closely tied to the Game
which is used as a stimulus to the student pursuing the
knowledge necessary to improve his decision-making.
The differences in approach are related to the dif-
ferences in student profile. On the one hand the graduate
students are expected to be able to run a city efficiently
and to do a good job of administering the resources which
they control in the private and public sectors. "At the
undergraduate level, on the other hand, students are exposed
to a body of knowledge whose purpose is to give them a
liberal education rather than professional competency.
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THE COURSE
Course Objectives
The purpose of the course is to improve the quality of
real estate and urban development decision-making through
i .
the use of a body of knowledge. This objective is sought
through the education of students who are or may become the
decision-makers. The course is designed to give them an
opportunity to conduct the analysis which leads to the decisions
and to see the consequences of those decisions and subsequent
actions. This gaming approach is different from the term pro-
ject approach in that in the Game they make the decisions and
have the opportunity to implement them. They receive a feed-
back from their actions. In addition, other forces are
constantly at work which alter the effectiveness of their pro-
grams for achieving the objective they set forth. They therefore
have a learning experience in how to deal with a changing
environment. The round-by-round play gives them the feed-
back so they get significant experience in selecting the type
of analysis which is necessary to move them toward their
objectives. The allocation of their time as well as of their
Game resources is a critical determinant of the success
they hope to achieve.
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The course is designed to enable them to improve their
analytical ability. It starts out geared to the developer-
investor and others who are primarily concerned with individual
parcels of real estate. But as the course develops, it is
obvious that these decisions must be looked at in terms of
what the rest of society is doing.
The resultant administrative process integrates decision-
making through the various disciplines. As the Game pro-
gresses the students see that they are at sufferance of the
environment in which business needs to perform its functions.
They increase their involvement in the management of that
environment. They apply the same administrative processes
to the management of that environment. They then learn more
about the relationship between business and society.
The types of analyses at the micro-level include market
analysis for shopping centers which are simulated by
"personal goods" and "personal service" industries. Other
market analyses are used for various types of property to be
i
developed. Appraisals need to be made for various purposes.
Business and property analyses are made in order to improve
profitability of the enterprises. Investment portfolio analyses
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are conducted. In a sense, the economic teams manage a
variety of business enterprises and a portfolio of real estate
resources. Unfortunately the income to business and the
income to the real estate are not separated. But, the stu-
dent is able to explore the application of principles which he
has learned in his real estate and business administration
courses. He also finds that human relations and leadership
qualities become important determinants of his success.
At the macro-level the objective is to improve the
student's understanding of how the system works. He does
this by assuming a public role in which he does the planning
and zoning or provides the transportation facilities or utili-
ties, or he may be mayor and coordinate public sector efforts.
The Game is so devised as to provide the feedback which can
be used as a measure of the quality of performance of these
various public sector functions. The student then sees how
the proper (effective? ) functioning of government influences the
proper (effective? ) functioning of business, or perhaps more
correctly how the improper (ineffective? ) functioning of
government adversely influences the proper (effective? )
functioning of business.
Since the public and private interests become interwoven,
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the Game provides a good way of demonstrating decision-
making in a society in which there is some community of
interest between the public and the private. The class
determines its own standards of morality. A system of
ethics and law develops in a way that enables the society to
function. The set of values varies with the student group,
but whatever the values, they show through in the operation
of the Game.
The operation of the public sector provides significant
opportunities to apply analytical techniques for public de-
cisions in much the same way analytical techniques can be
used for profit-oriented decisions.
For example, a school location decision is not so
different from a shopping center location decison. Ex-
perience in the Game shows that the private sector decision-
makers do use that knowledge of analytical techniques for
public sector decisions.
The public sector demonstrates a need for balance in
the system. The balance is not only in the provision of
public facilities but also in the private development of the
appropriate mix of land uses.
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One of the great lessons of the Game and of the course
is that the urban development process may be managed by
providing an environment in which the private decision-makers
pursuing their own objectives respond to public sector objectives.
They build where the facilities are available and at the best
place to serve the markets. Since the public sector can con-
trol the locations where the facilities become available, there
is an opportunity to be socially and politically, as well as
economically responsive. An efficient system can be developed
by developing balance.
The inefficiencies become expensive not only to the
developers but to the community as a whole, so it becomes
evident that it pays to have an improved analysis of the problems
of managing the environment in order to achieve public objectives,
whatever they may be.
In City II the public objective decision-making is compli-
cated by the presence of a separate social sector which is generally
muted in the classes under discussion. Some development may take
place in activating this sector. But the social sector receives
little attention because of the small size of the class and the
entrepreneurial tendencies of the students generally, as well as
because of the selection of students.
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Course Structure
One view of how best to educate a student is to let him
work with a professor for several years on a one-to-one
basis. This will permit guidance of his activities in read-
ing, writing, and solving problems, real or simulated. The
feedback permits close attention to individual needs. The
platitudes offered at commencement time have some merit.
Formal education has really just begun. Education before
the degree should provide experience, knowledge and under-
standing that will continue to grow after graduation.
The reason for not operating a university on a one-to-
one basis is that it is far too expensive. The alternative
is to put students in groups and perhaps into classes and
organized c\irricula so that a body of knowledge may be
transmitted. Universities today may be "so well organized"
that the student-teacher relationship has gone by the wayside
in the sense of the student going to study under- someone.
This is less true at the graduate level than at the under-
graduate level, but the problem is the same.
The Game provides an opportunity for the professor
to work with each and every student on the individual
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students' unique problems. And while the students are
grouped together in a class and live in this simulated
society which, for them, is very real, they are also able
to pursue their educational experience on an individual
basis. Many students are uncertain about why they want
to acquire;the body of knowledge. Some of them will simply
proceed on faith that it is really advantageous to study the
discipline. The Gaming decision puts them in a situation
where they know why they need to know. They are then
receptive to the opportunity to seek out that understanding.
And while the courses are taught with lectures explaining
parts of a body of knowledge and reading material that is
helpful, there is a high degree of contact in class between
students and faculty and indeed among students who go on to
learn from each other.
The case study approach is a halfway measure in this
process. It provides a student with the opportunity to
simulate situations and to discuss them. They get involved
in someone else's problem. They really don't get the feed-
back. In the Game they are involved in their own problem.
They get the feedback.
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Typically, at the beginning of the semester the student
writes a one-page paper outlining his goals and objectives.
He then programs his activities in order to achieve his ob-
jectives. The Game provides a situation in which he may
be measured against the standards he sets.
Over the past few years the instructor has experimented
with various mixes of Games and other techniques. These
range from building the entire course around the Game to
programming the Game for one half of the course and projects
for the other half. When the course was in essence all Game,
the students would write many papers demonstrating how they
conducted their analyses, showing detailed plans of what they
were going to do, and the like. The middle ground includes
a ceavy lecture schedule and the use of the Game to illus-
trate specific points. The minimal use of the Game occurred
when term papers were assigned separately from the Game.
This meant there were very few of the short papers in the
Game, but a heavy assignment on the project. The discus-
sion made use of the Game for the Model.
The instructor's preference depends on the objectives
in view. When the purpose is to teach analytical techniques,
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many short papers work out bcrt. When the goal is to
develop a professional competence in some particular
dimension, the term paper works well when the Game is
used as a frame of reference. When the idea is to convey
a general understanding of the urban system and decision-
making within it, the best combination consists of the Game
plus the reading and some modest papers.
DYNAMICS
Familiar iz..tion with the Model
The student is introduced to the Model through the use
of a film, lectures, and the City Manual. The film shows
the excerpts of a previous play of the Game and gives a
brief narration of what to expect. This film is supplemented
by lectures which emphasize acquiring knowledge and apply-
ing various tools of analysis in order to improve decision-
making. Also, the students are requested to read the
City Manual to familiarize themselves with its extensive
technical contents.
The technical nature of City II makes an understanding
of the urban system depend upon a working knowledge of
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this particular Model. After the completion of one or two
rounds, supplemented with staff assistance as to the opera-
tion and certain basic relationships, the majority of the
students are questioned (and invited to ask questions) on how
the urban system operates. The purpose of this session is to
give each individual player a broader conception of his role
and the roles of other players in the system. The subsequent
sessions provide repeat opportunities to increase familiarity
with the operation of the Model and the real urban system.
Trend _of Play
Armed with the technical knowledge and a simplistic
view of the urban environment, ths student is encouraged to
develop an administrative approach utilizing the framework
implicit in the planning-programming-budgeting systems
approach. The student is expected to:
1. Define his general GOAL which is OUTPUT ORIENTED,
2. Identify OBJECTIVES which indicate conditions or
levels which must be obtained or maintained to
successfully reach the designated GOAL,
3. Draft PROGRAMS which are designed to achieve the
standards set by the various OBJECTIVES.
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4. EVALUATE THE PROGRAMS to determine their
effectiveness (in cost/benefit terms) as compared
to alternative programs.
As an example, one student's interpretation of his politi-
cal role in the urban system is abstracted as follows:
POLITICAL GOAL School Department
Develop a school system comparable to the best
in the nation, which will provide high quality,
accessible and meaningful educational experience
to the people of Blue City.
OBJECTIVE #1
Maintain the pupil/teacher ratio at less than 15/1.
Program §1
Using population growth projections, determine
future student levels. Hire middle and high
income teachers, at the optimum mix, to meet
this demand.
Program #2
Redistrict school boundaries to better utilize
existing resources.
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Program #3
Construct new schools or add to existing
facilities as projected. (Specific round-
by-round projections are used. )
OBJECTIVE #2
Keep unmet demand for adult education at less
than 10% of the total demand.
Program #1
Similar to those for OBJECTIVE #U
It can be seen from this example that the School
Department has:
1. A definite goal (to be the best)
2. Identified meaningful standards of performance
(student/teacher ratio of 15/1 and unmet demand
for adults at 10% or less)
3. Determined approaches to achieve these standards
(population projections, new construction, redis-
tricting, etc.)
Some of the various types of analyses which were employ
by a number of the decision-makers as described in the discus
which follows indicate that most analyses performed
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fall under the Program category.
Economic base. Fundamental to many papers which
analyzed Blue City for various reasons was the determination
of why the city is growing. The recommended readings in
Wilbur Thompson's Preface to Urban Economics had drawn
attention to "export base" theory and the students were able
to identify the following components of the economic base of
Blue City.
SALES TO THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
(in millions)
INDUSTRY
LI
HI
NS
1
$203
$470
$208 .
$881
YEAR
3
$233
$528
$215 .
$976
5
$223,
$530
$323
$1, 076
7
$234
$503
$526
$1, 263
, This is a useful exercise but its impact on decision-
making is minimal unless it is used in conjunction with
the other data.
Business cycle. Export base analysis, since it is
dependent upon sales of goods and services outside the
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local economy, must be supplemented by an analysis of the
condition of the national economy. This provides a useful
yardstick for measuring economic performance. By chart-
ing the prices paid for basic industry output, the return on
investments and the interest rate on loans and bonds, the
students were able to determine which phase of the business
cycle they were in. Most correctly identified the downtrend
of the recession. This may have been one reason for the
general hesitation of investors to make large capital invest-
ments in Blue City.
Demographic analysis. Other basic studies, important to
public and private decision-makers, concerned the tracing of
population growth and projecting future levels. Other trends
that were investigated included: employment (total), employ-
ment distribution by industry, unemployment rates and income
distribution. All these data were readily available and in a us-
able form but it was concealed among mountains of other figures.
Here again the PPBS format guided the student to assemble
only the pertinent facts and disregard peripheral information.
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Housing market analysis. Another basic tool of the
decision-makers of Blue City, important in any geographic
area where dwelling units are in competition with one another
as alternatives for the users of housing, was the housing
market analysis. It incorporates many of the previously
mentioned types of analyses: economic base, employment
trends, income distribution and population analysis. An
additional component of a housing market analysis is the
housing stock or inventory. The magnitude of the total
housing stock in terms of dwelling units, reflecting changes
over time, is one of the most significant items of the re-
ported data. In the example cited below the student goes
one step further by identifying the change in distribution
of the inventory by structural type.
HOUSING INVENTORY
(level of development)
TYPE OF DWELLING YEAR
1 47 (current)
Single Family (RA) 101 115 123
Garden Apt. (RB) 24 31 37
Hi-Rise Apt. (RC) 668
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Equipped with this knowledge, plus awareness of va-
cancy rates, rents, property values, and financial market
conditions, the private developer could make a rational de-
cision as to the advisability of a housing investment.
Appraisal. Appraisal theory was also utilized on a
number of occasions to aid prospective purchasers and sellers
as to the market value of particular parcels of land. The
data needed for the three approaches to "alue were available
to the student appraiser.
In the application of the cost approach:
1. An indication of the value of the land was avail-
able on the "market value of privately owned
land" sheet.
2. Costs to reproduce the structure new could
be obtained from the local construction industry
and the outside economy.
3. The amount of physical depreciation was indi-
cated on the individual economic output sheets.
In applying the income approach, the appraiser has:
1. Estimated the gross income by tracing the
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economic history of the property and analyz-
ing anticipated changes in the environment.
2. Estimated the operating expenses in the same
manner.
3. By subtraction, computed the net income before
recapture (depreciation).
4. Developed or selected an acceptable method and
rate for capitalizing the net income.
In applying the market data approach, the appraiser has:
1. Found similar properties in the area for which
pertainent sales, rental and operating data
are available.
2. Qualified the price as to terms and bona fide
nature.
3. Compared the important characteristics of
the subject with the corresponding characteris-
tics of each of the comparables, by time,
location, and physical factors.
The student would then select the approach which is most
applicable to the subject property and determine a final valuation.
158
-------
Land use studies. One final group of analyses began
to emerge in the later rounds of the development of Blue
City. Urban land studies including surveys of the intensity
of land and residential development, vacant land studies,
structural and environmental quality indexes, land value studies,
availability of park land and general livability studies, showed
that unstructured growth of the city caused numerous urban
problems. In this example, intensive residential development
occurred along the main western and southern arteries,
causing disproportionate traffic congestion, school overcrowd-
ing, poor municipal services and general social dissatisfac-
tion. Observing this degeneration, the zoning department
initiated a comprehensive master plan for the staged growth
i
of Blue City. This plan, coupled with the support and corres-
ponding plans of the other departments, has insured the future
life of Blue City. By proper management of the urban en-
vironment the inefficiencies due to imbalance can be minimized.
No longer would the public sector blindly respond to the
actions of the private sector; now the public sector would
stimulate or channel growth where it deemed it most bene-
ficial for the city as a whole.
159
-------
Interaction of Students
The dynamics of the Game consist of the series of
analyses and decisions of the types just described and of
development of interpersonal relationships leading to group
action through a political and social process.
The students play the Game generally through the eco-
nomic role. Thus often results in a minimum of student
interaction early in the course because of the nature of
many economic decisions. That is to say that economic
decisions are viewed as beneficial only to the team making
the decision. Unnecessary interrelations are thus avoided
for the sake of secrecy. Most players use the guise of
ignorance when talking with their peers early in the course
and their limited contacts are usually attempts to acquire
knowledge.
However, as the player s1 comma nd over the technical
content increases, so does their awareness of the necessity
of a properly functioning system. The player realizes that
his economic aspirations will not be achieved unless his
public counterpart can create a suitable "service-rich"
160
-------
environment in which he can operate. One or two students
generally emerge quickly with an extensive grasp of the
system and its technical content and assume the role of
educator. In the course last spring one student had had
previous exposure with the model and was quite familiar with
its operation. In a fashion similar to the old ward politicians
this student would dispense favors, in this case the patronage
was in the form of technical explanations, to gain the initial
respect of his constituents. Needless to say, it was a simple
matter for him to insure his election to the mayoralty of the
City.
As time passed, and the other players came to under-
stand their role and the roles of others, they began to realize
that the mayor, although helping the city to function, was
insuring his own economic prominence at their expense. The
coup d'etat was swift. The era of the ward politician had
passed and with this passing came the emergence of the
city-manager. The political cooperation which grew from
this new regime eventually led to full appreciation of the
efforts of others and opened up higher levels of discussion
concerning city-wide urban problems.
161
-------
CONCLUSIONS
As is taught in the Game, the conclusions drawn would
be relative to objectives. If the objective is to stimulate the
student to "dig," i.e., search out the knowledge he needs, then
our experience indicates great success. If the objective is to
convey a body of knowledge, then our experience indicates that
more developmental work is needed in order to program
instruction necessary to communicate the body of knowledge.
In the politics of progress, university style, any curri-
culum without quantitative methods, human type studies, com-
puter usage and gaming is simply not with it. It is as much
a case of fashion and politics as it is of curriculum and
pedagogy. The process, even in this cynical view, does
however improve the effectiveness of what universities are
presumably doing.
If, as in the view expressed earlier, the best way to
teach and learn is on a one-to-one basis, then 'the Game is
a great innovation. This is so not only because there is
more time on a one-to-one ratio of teacher student where
the teacher is the professor, but there is a vast increase
in the amount of the one-to-one teacher student time where
162
-------
the students teach each other.
Much depends on the philosophy or assumptions, if
you wish. For those that hold, what some believe to be
an archaic view, that the professor knows all, the student
nothing, and let the students come listen, these conclusions
on Game experience will be way off base. But, for those who
really believe that commencement is the beginning of some-
thing, not the end, and that the educational preparation
involves more of a student's learning than a professor
teaching, then the conclusion is that the Game is a great
contribution in the form of providing the attractively
packaged opportunity for the student to do what we believe
he ought to do (attractively packaged or not).
If the waves of change in university education are
following the pattern of the waves of change in other
areas of human activity, be it the increase in the speed with
which man travels, or his abilities to produce, control and
use sound and light, or even his abilities to solve social
science problems, then university education will take dif-
ferent forms. There is much to be done with the Game as
an instructional device but there is much that has already
been done with it as a learning device.
163
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Chapter VIII
THE USE OF THE
CITY MODEL AT GEORGETOWN*
Philip Patterson
Envirometries
1100 17th Street, N.W.
Washington, B.C. 20036
and
Department of Economics
Georgetown University
Washington, D.C. 2007
*Support for this project was provided under a grant
from the National Science Foundation — Grant Number
Y008433
164
-------
CITY MODEL AT GEORGETOWN
Table of Contents
Page
I. Introduction
167
A. Personal Background -,._
lo /
B. Course Description and Class Composition 168
II. The Course
A. Purpose of the Course 17Q
B. Course Structure 171
1. Influence of Previous Experience 171
2. The Schedule 172
3. Summary of Experience in Following the Schedule 175
III. The Play of the Model 177
A. Overview 177
B. General and Departmental Indicators 180
C. Frequency of Decisions 185
D. The Economic Sector 187
E. The Social Sector 188
F. The Government 190
G. Summary 191
IV. Conclusions, Recommendations and Suggestions 192
A. Conclusions 192
B. Recommendations 19 4
1. Classroom Use — General 194
2. In an Economics Course 196
3. In an Urban Seminar-Laboratory Course 197
C. Suggestions 197
165
-------
Page
APPENDICES
A. Rules for CLUG 199
B. Research Papers 203
C. Reading Reports and Reading List 212
166
-------
I. Introduction
A. Personal Background
I began an active involvement in urban economics
in 1964 when I was graduate fellow to the single graduate
urban course in the Economics Department at Georgetown
University. Five years later, in the Spring of 1969, I
began teaching the second graduate urban course to be offered
in economics — The Simulation of Urban System: Econ. 484.
I have continued to teach a Spring course under that
title ever since. I have however, never been a fulltime
teacher at the university. The class in 1969 was held at the
simulation facilities of the Washington Center for Metropolitan
Studies and used the CITY I* model as a laboratory device.
This first course was subsidized in part by the WCMS through
the provision of free computer time, computing services and
space. During the course of the semester, the Urban Systems
Simulation staff (of which I was a member) at WCMS spun off
and formed an independent company called Envirometries.
The 1970 course was held at the simulation facilities
of Envirometrics, and again, CITY I was used as an integral
part of the laboratory seminar format. This time it was
Envirometrics that subsidized the overhead costs associated
with the use of the computerize model.
When the grant from the National Science Foundation
was given to Envirometrics to test the use of the CITY MODEL
in several different disciplines at several universities, I
was very happy to participate on the part of Georgetown
University. There was probably no way that I could have con-
tinued to use a computerized urban decision-making model in
my course without institutional support. This was because
none of the desired models could be run at the university
computer center with no out-of-pocket cost.
Prior to the beginning of the 1970 course, I had
been involved in designing and using urban decision-making
models for about four years — first as a member of the
Urban Systems Simulation staff (developers of CITY I) and
then as a member of the Envirometrics staff (developers of
CITY II, CITY III, and CITY MODEL). As one of the designers
of the CITY MODEL and as one of the staff that had run the
model on many occasions, I had many ideas about how I would
like to use it. The NSF project gave me a chance to try one
of the several alternatives I thought would be very beneficial
to a group of students.
*CITY I was funded in large part by a contract from the Office
of Construction Services of the U.S. Office of Education
167
-------
B. Course Description and Class Composition
Figure 1 shows the course syllabus. Note that no
prerequisites were required and that students form other
disciplines were courted. The assignments and term paper
associated with course, were meant to discourage any student
not willing to work on a continual basis during the entire
semester.
Since the course uses a combination seminar (dis-
cussion) - laboratory (decision-making and policy-testing)
approach, it was desirable to keep a small class size.
After the first two classes, seven students dropped the
course leaving eleven persons for the rest of the semester.
Undergraduates were allowed to take the course if they
received permission. Several did, and the following make-up
of students by rank resulted: six graduates, three under-
graduates and two graduate auditors. All were economists
but two: a planner with eighteen years of experience and a
philosophy professor working on a master's degree in economics.
Several of the students held fulltime jobs: one as
a banker, another for the U.S. Treasury Department, one
student, Bob Ried, was assigned to the class as the university's
fellow, which meant he was to aid in the course in any way
designated by the instructor.
168
-------
Figure 1
SYLLABUS
Economics 484.: Simulation of Urban Systems
Phil Patterson
Department of Economics, Georgetown University
Prerequisites: None. Students from other disciplines are
welcome .
Objectives of the course:
This seminar-laboratory course will focus on decision-
making in an urban environment through the use of a com-
puter-based gaming model. The course will deal explicitly
with the major subsystems of the urban system, such as
employment, transportation, migration, housing, activity
systems , the provision of government services and their
financing, and others.
Methods of Instruction^
The CITY MODEL, an operational simulation model will
be used as the laboratory device for studying the urban
system. Students will become decision-makers in a hypo-
thetical metropolitan area. They will be able to pursue
whatever objectives they wish and use whatever discipline
tools they find helpful.
Assignment and Term Paper
There will be three reading reports and several other
assignments of a research nature assigned during the
semester. A research paper will be required that deals
with a specific urban issue.
Required Texts ;
1. Thompson, Wilber R. A Preface to Urban Economics.
Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, for Resources
for the Future, Inc., 1965. ($2.95 softback copy)
2. Perloff, Harvey S. and Lowdon, Wingo Jr. editors.
Baltimore-. The Johns
_-___
Hopkins "Press", " for Resources for the Future, Inc.,
1968. ($5.00 softback copy)
Location
The course will be conducted at the simulation
facilities of Envirometrics , Inc., on the fourth floor
of 1100 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C, 20036..
The class will meet at 6:30 each Wednesday.
169
-------
II. The Course
The operation of the course was strongly influenced by
my previous two uses of the CITY I model in similar circum-
stances. There were, however, fewer changes to the purposes
of the course than to the structure of the course.
A. Purpose of the Course
The single overriding purpose of the course was to
provide the students with an opportunity to learn by being
placed in a position of decision-making authority. Some of
the general things to be learned were:
1. The use and applicability of the box of theo-
retical tools they had acquired in other classes,
2. The workings of a complex systems model that was
designed to be a simplified reflection of the
real world urban system,
3. The importance of goals and norms in policy-
making and in the life of any urban area,
4. The competitive and cooperative nature of deci-
sions in the economic, social and governmental
sectors of any. metropolitan area.
Several more specific goals of the course were to:
1. Acquaint the students to some of the basic
literature in urban economics.
2. Provide through reading lists and class reading
reports some insight into the literature in sys-
tems theory, model building, and educational
games.
3. Encourage original thought through the writing
of a research paper in a topic of the students'
choosing.
4. Use the CITY'MODEL as ;the integrating element
for all the activity that took place in the
course.
The last goal was of particular importance since past
experience had shown that a holistic model of this type could
be helpful in relating the theoretical literature to every-
day urban issues and problems. In fact, my own understanding
and interpretation of the literature had changed dramatically
once I had become involved in designing and operating complex
urban decision-making models.
170
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B. Course Structure
!
1. Influence of Previous Experience
Even though the CITY MODEL is a much more powerful
tool than the CITY I model that I had used in my previous two
courses, I did not depart radically from the format I would
have used had I still been using CITY I. My previous two
semesters convinced me to use a few strategies that I would
have used regardless of the model employed.
First, start playing the game as early as possible
but preceed it by the more simple manual game of CLUG (Communi-
ty Land Use Game).!/ The reason for starting play early is that
almost any urban issue that comes up in the course can be re-
lated to the model (either to a factor contained in the model
or as a factor that could be added to the "game" or to the
•model" ).2/ The reason for starting with CLUG instead of CITY
MODEL is that a few students tend to make serious mistakes
based upon a misunderstanding of the model in the first or
second round of play that plague them for the rest of the
semester. By playing CLUG first, these students have the
chance to make the mistakes, and learn from them (e.g., over-
building personal goods because they do not realize that all
sales must be made locally, or purchasing land at inflated
prices miles away from roads or terminals) .
Second, maintain a seminar atmosphere by having
periodic discussion in which all students were encouraged to
participate. This was to assure that each student took a stand
on whatever topic the discussion dealt with.
Third, allow the momentum and interests of the
class to alter any pre-planned schedule for an individual class
meeting. When a lively class discussion developed and i-c
appeared to be constructive, it was allowed to run its course.
i/ Developed by Allan Feldt, now at the Universir.y of Michigan
£/ A useful distinction can be made between the "model" and
"game" components of a run of the CITY MODEL. Strictly speaking
the type of inputs, the operating programs, and the computer out-
put comprise the model. These do not change from one run r.o
another. The starting city configuration, the allocation of
assets to teams, the allocation of players to teams, the norms
of the players, the institutions they create, and the win crite-
ria they establish comprise the "game." Together /they tend
to be unique for each group of users of the CITY MODEL. ,
171
-------
A major difference between CITY I and CITY MODEL from
the player viewpoint is the number of sectors. CITY I has an
economic and government sector. CITY MODEL has those two plus
a social sector. With CITY I I had always had one or two per-
son teams that played the economic and government sectors simul-
taneously. I decided to play CITY MODEL with one or two person
teams that would play all three sectors simultaneously. But
because each sector is quite complex, I opted for introducing
the sectors one at a time; economic in round 1, social in
round 2, and government in round 3. More will be said about
this later.
2. , The Schedule
A rough class by class schedule was prepared
before the start of the semester, but no schedule was pre-
sented to the student until the fourth class meeting. The
following is a short description of what happened during the
first four meetings. Deviations from the semi-formal
schedule will follow after that. The fourteen class meetings2/
are identified by small Roman numerals.
i. The first class meeting started with the
students filling out a questionnaire. The next
step was to discuss games of sport in terms of the character-
istics in Figure 2. Each student first chose a sport and
then we went down the list and talked about how each sport
dealt with each characteristic. It did not take long to see
that even the limited subset of games of sport showed tremen-
dous variation in game characteristics. The students differed
on what they considered chance factors in sports, spatial
boundaries, and overall purpose.
The second part of the meeting was spent play-
ing CLUG. I had modified the game slightly and compressed the
rules into a few pages (Appendix A) and play took place on xeroxed
maps of the game board. Game money from two sets of Monopoly
supplied the only other needed materials Two separate games
were conducted simultaneously because there were 14 students
and I wanted each student to be a separate team. Play was
quite lively.
±7Class began at 6:30 and was scheduled to end at 8:15, but
we seldom broke up before 9:30.
172
-------
Figure 2
CHARACTERISTICS OF GAMES
Players
Number
Objectives
Skill
Preparation
Energy or Strength
Overall Purpose
Chance Factor
Physical Apparatus
Equipment
Player Clothing
Space (boundaries)
Weather Conditions
Game Structure
Rules
Pay-offs
Resources
Calculations
Referee
Time
Starting and Stopping
Cycle
Real Time and Game Time
Zero or Non-Zero Sum
173
-------
ii. The second meeting was spent continuing the play of CLUG,
Two new students came and they were both assigned to the
same city. Since they came in during a middle of a round,
they had no land and therefore they had to purchase from
other players. I gave these two new teams the option about
an hour .after the start of class to invest in the other city
: if they wished. They did not choose to do so, but this
would be an interesting idea to test with regard to CLUG or
the CITY MODEL. Have several different plays going simul-
taneously, and allow a few teams to represent national
businesses that can choose to invest in one of several dif-
ferent local systems.
iii. Play of CLUG stopped and I asked for ideas on how the
students might build a model starting from the CLUG frame-
work. . The discussion did not prove as useful as it had in
a previous course when the same technique was tried. Maybe
the reason was that I did not request that a one page written
description of a CLUG modification be handed in as I had
before./
I discussed the process that the staff at Envirometrics
took to evolve from CLUG to Region to City I and then to CITY
MODEL. I passed out some materials that compared the four
models.
I then distributed copies of the players' manual and
first,round output for the economic sector only. I told
the class to prepare for playing the economic sector at
the next meeting.
iv. The fourth meeting saw the start of the economic
decision-making. The confusion level was high during Round
2, .but the small number of students and the liberal amount
of time .made my job easier, even if it may not have helped
them. I passed out the schedule for the remainder of the
course and spent about twenty minutes explaining the social
sector.
The plan for the remaining ten class meetings is now
presented, and comments on how close reality followed the
plan will follow in a summary section.
v. Discuss the major social sector operating programs
(migration, housing, employment, time allocation, school
allocation, transportation, and boycott). Play Round 3.
Elect government.
vi. Hold a town meeting (discuss public sector). Start
government decision-making. Play Round 4. Read Chapters 7
and 9 in Thompson.
vii. Systems reading reports due. Each student will discuss
his report and class will comment. Play Round 5.
174
-------
viii. Final determination of research paper assignments.
Play Round 6. Read Chapter 5 in Thompson.
ix. _ Model reading reports due. Discuss. Read Britton
Harris's article in Issues in Urban Economics. Presentation
of Urban Dynamics Model.'
x. Play Round 7. Read Dick Netzer's article in Issues
in Urban Economics. —
xi. Game reading reports due. Discuss. Play Round 8.
xii. Discuss decision-making in the previous rounds. Talk
about Zero Population Growth Policy, Master Planning, New
Town Development, etc. Read Werner Hirsch's article in
Issues in Urban Economics.
xiii. Play final Round. Read Julius Margolis's article in
Issues in Urban Economics.
xiv. Research reports due. Debriefing of entire course.
Complete critique questionnaires.
3. Summary of Experience in Following the Schedule
Class v. went according to plan. The election was not a
very realistic or dynamic exercise. One person sought the
Chairman position and got it. He appointed a bureaucracy
on the basis of assigning government jobs to the first
students that asked for them.
Class vi. followed the plan, but the town meeting was not
an exciting event. This is probably due to the small class
size and the lack of strong competing objectives among the
teams. Each team had an economic function, a social func-
tion, and a government function, so the teams were more similar
than different.
175
-------
Class vii was devoted almost entirely to the systems reports.
Computer output was passed out but decisions were not made.
The first part of Class viii was spent discussing final re-
search paper assignments. Round 5 was played.
Class ix was spent discussing the students' reports on other
urban models. There was not enough time for a round of play
because Harris1 article was discussed in some detail.
Class x had a presentation of the Urban Dynamics model by
Bob Reid and myself. Netzer's article was not discussed.
Round 6 was played.
Class xi saw the students make their reports on other gaming
models. Mo round was played.
Class xii saw the play of round 7 but discussion of Zero
Population Growth, the other topics, and Kirsche's article
was minimal.
Class xiii saw the final round of play. In a sense some
end game strategy was allowed because no one made any con-
struction decisions (since they would not appear on the next
output). Margoli^s article was not discussed.
Class xiv was spent debriefing the course and filling out a
final questionnaire. Only two research papers were received
at this time. The remainder came in within a month after the
last class.
In sum, the class was not able to discuss as many of
the readings as had been planned, the game play took the greater
part of any class in which a round was played, and the student
reading reports were more time consuming than planned. Better
use could have been made of fully analyzing the Bluecity
status, with less time spend summarizing the student reports.
176
-------
III. The Play of the Model
A. Overview
The model was run seven times after the receipt of
Round 1 output which means that play ended with a Round 8
output. Since the model was run with teams operating Con-
struction Industries, there was a round delay for all con-
struction. Therefore, in the final round no construction
decisions were made. In Round 1*, only economic decisions
were made. In Round 2, economic decisions and social de-
cisions were made. The first full round of play in which
the students assumed full decision-making power was Round 3.
Thus, the full range of the model was available to the stu-
dents for four rounds of play (Rounds 3, 4, 5, and 6).
Teams were comprised of one or two members and were
matched alphabetically in the economic and social sectors
(i.e., Economic Team A was also Social Team AA, etc.). Govern-
ment positions were changed once (at the end of round 5) , thus
allowing each team to exercise two government functions.
Figure _3_ shows the population growth for George-
town** over the seven rounds of decision-making. The total
population growth of 68 percent was quite large in terms of
real life cities. This total growth over seven rounds con-
verts to an annual rate of growth of 7.7 percent and places
Georgetown up in the fast growing class of cities such as
Phoenix, San Jose, For Lauderdale, Las Vegas, and several
other cities during the decade of the sixties.
• Figure 4_ shows several indicators for Georgetown
over the eight simulated years.
*For convention, "In Round 1" or "Round 1 decisions" will
refer to decisions that were made to create a Round 2 output.
**The Georgetown University play of Blue City will be
referred to as "Georgetown" to distinguish it from the other
plays.
177
-------
FIGURE 3
POPULATION GROWTH IN THE CITY OF GEORGETOWN
(log scale)
ro
'i-
Q
.!
£ Zoo
o
i i
>
• - -I ;
I
_L_
i.:
i P i i
.i
i
; j
^..i
'
• •I
•;.
. i
—1__
_._:j
-;'
ROUMp
.J_
7
1..J
8
-------
FIGURE 4
GEORGETOWN INDICATORS
% Change
in Population
Round
1 2 345678
0
10 19 13
Population Per
Residential
Square Mile
1940 1942 1972 2127 2326 2546 2430
Average Housing
Dissatisfaction
NA
112 109 107 108 90 93
Average Educational
Level 60
57 57 57 54 59 58
Vacancy Rate
3 -9 -3
Employed Workers
(thousands)
81.6 81.4 88.7 95.9 107.9 126.0 136.0
Percent of
Workers Earning
Under $5000
38
38
37 33 36 31 34
179
-------
B. General and Departmental Indicators
Several useful city indicators that are not contained
in the summary Demographic and Economic Statistics are shown
in Figure 5_. The indicators appear in the Figure in the
same sequence as they appear in the output. For example,
the first information after Edits is the details on migration.
The key indicator in the Georgetown City is the in-migration,
because jobs were always available in all three classes for
Rounds 4, 5, and 6. It appears very erratic, but this is
primarily due to the amount and type of newly constructed
housing. For example, in Round 5 mostly, PL's moved in, and
the only new housing constructed was completely occupied
by Pi's. In Round 6, mostly PH's moved in, and this was be-
cause the new RC2 at 10826 was filled to over capacity by
one PM and 59 PH's. Likewise, the new level of RB at 9236
was filled with 7 PH's. In other words, if housing had not
been in short supply, the in-migration by round would have
been even for the three classes.
A very useful indicator can be derived from the Em-
ployment Details. Pi's by class employed by SC, MS, or BUS
pay a systemwide calculated average transportation cost and take
an average amount of time to go to work, since the actual cost
and time cannot be derived due to the fact that there is no
specified location for SC, MS, or BUS jobs.* Therefore, the
transportation cost and time for employees of these government
jobs give a useful measure of changing costs by class and
over time. Since the calculated average figure takes into
account other Pi's that use cars, or buses (and/or rapid rail
if one exists) , or walk to work. Thus, a declining dollar
cost over time such as existed for PL's from Round 1 to Round
5, would represent such things as more bus ridership, more
walking to work (Pi's working at adjacent parcels), or reduced
highway congestion. In general, lower values would be bene-
ficial to the social sector.
The average transportation costs (which are based on
last round's data) reached their lowest point in Round 5, the year
after bus ridership reached its maximum value. The change
between Round 2 and 8 was detrimental to all but the PL class.
The average PH in Round 8 was spending 32 percent more and
the average PM 47 percent more to get to work than in Round 2.
The transportation sector of the local system certainly did
not serve these citizens welll The average travel time to
work was stable at 5 units for all the rounds except the last
when it jumped to 6. Thus, the average worker was spending 20
*The SC and MS departments hire Pi's and then assign
them to individual SC and MS units. Pi's are not hired by
the individual SC and MS units.
180
-------
Figure 5
G. U. Indicators
Round
Migration (Pi's)
In - PL
PM
PH
Out - PL
PM
PH
Employment
Average Cost PL
of Trans. PM
PH
Average Trans, time
PL unemployed
PM underemployed
PH underemployed
Highway
Road Maintenance
($ million)
Road Type
Average Dep. 1
before mainten. 2
3
Bus
- . Fares ($ million)
Current Expenditures
Fare Schedule
2
7
9
10
0
5
14
260
190
280
5
35
14
3
.824
1.1
1.0
.9
.466
2.57
15*
+ 2*
3
7
10
10
10
12
7
240
200
300
5
3
0
0
.774
.9
1.3
.6
.969
10.0
0
+ 5<
4
7
17
19
3
2
1
220
170
280
5
0
(82)
0
(63)
0
(89)
.682
1.1
1.0
.8
1.25
7.78
0
r +5*
5
46
26
3
12
2
2
190
150
270
5
0
(61)
0
(69)
0
(110)
: t
2.18
1.8
1.2
2.0
1.34
6.86
10*
+ 5*
6
9
44
87
12
2
1
220
260
330
5
0
(70)
0
(33)
0
(41)
1.36
1.9
1.3
2.0
1.33
5.68
10*
+ 5*
7
36
18
57
6
3
3
230
260
260
5
0
(42)
0
(11)
0
(0)
1.64
2.2
1.5
2.3
1.88
5.22
10*
+ 5*
8
17
26
16
17
1
4
240
280
370
6
0
(54)
0
(0)
0
(33)
1.92
2.0
1.4
2.2
.68
2.95
10*
+ 5*
Passengers (in thous.)
4.9 19.8 29.1 13.6 13.3 18.4 6.6
181
-------
School
High Use Index
Low Use Index
Ratio of Private/Public
Unmet Adult Education
Demand
Municipal Services
High MS Index
Low MS Index
Welfare Payment
Utilities
High Cost/Unit Plant
Low Cost/Unit Plant
Charge ($1000)
Revenue/Expenses
Parks
Population/Sq. Mile
(in thousands)
Chairman
Ratio of Appropriations
to Taxes
Auto Tax ($1 m)
Round
2
197
59
205
3
185
62
.186
4
85
47
.244
5
47
0
3.341
6
96
68
.243
7
88
62
.303
8
95
60
.352
5085 4670 3414 8433 291 3716 4853
150 151 152 143 149 168 175
143 143 135 121 114 114 113
$1500 $1500 $1500 $1500 $1500 $1500 $1500
$9704 8783 8607 8056 8271 8268 11,718
$6926 7658 7777 7517 7106 6816 6,816
$10 $10 $10 $9.7 $9.7 $9.7 $9.9
1.317 .879 1.258 .915 1.211 .755 1.230
35.4 35.8 34.3 34.2 34.2 33.3 33.0
1.29 1.21 .83 .74 .86 .93 .93
.204 .194 .962 1.48 1.84 2.06 2.07
182
-------
percent more time getting to work in Round 8 than in Round 2.
As city size grows, one would expect average travel costs and
time to increase if offsetting improvements are not made in
the transportation system, and this in exactly what happened.
Road maintenance costs increased significantly over
time, and this was due primarily to more people using the
same old roads. It is true that some new roads were built
but as shown in Figure 5a the number of congested roads in-
creased from 3 to 13 between Rounds 2 and 8.
The bus operation was a frustrating task for all three
persons who tried a crack at it. Passengers peaked in Round
4, but the relative cash loss to the company was in Round 8
when expenditures exceeded fares by only 177 percent 1 A re-
search paper by one of the hapless bus operators (Appendix
B) presents a technique that might make the bus have a chance
of turning a profit and still serve a large numer of people.
The School Department started with a bad situation, in
terms of disparity between the best and worst school units,
and managed to make things better over time. The percentage
of students going to private schools, however, increased
over time and was very large in Round 5 when the local School
Department experienced a wholesale exodus on the part of its
teachers because of the low wages offered. The adult educa-
tion program nearly met all the demand in only one year.
The Municipal Services Department started out with a
system that was overcrowded and ended up with a slightly
less overcrowded situation, but one that had more inequities
than before. That is the worst served area was 17 percent worse
and the best served area was 21 percent better off at the end
of the seven rounds of decision-making. The cost to the eco-
nomic sector via increased maintenance charges as the result
of poor MS service must have been ignored by the entrepre-
neurs of the local system.
The Utility Department was improving the cost per unit
at the high cost plant very nicely until the last round, when
the cost per unit jumped 42 percent. The low cost plant
showed a small improvement over the seven rounds. The revenue/
expenditure figure is deceiving because part of the expendi-
tures were accounted for by cash transfers to other govern-
ment departments.
The population per square mile of parkland showed a
small decline, which means a relative increase in the green
space per capita.
183
-------
Route
9526
9528
9530
9532
10126
9631
10231
9732
9231
9431
9831
10031
10431
9623
10930
9427
Number
of Con-
gested
Roads
58
62
144
87
67
40
0
6
86
118
38
40
0
45
0
98
2
Roads
with
over 150 0
Conges-
tion
44
84
172
84
61
41
0
15
110
142
34
41
0
18
0
55
Figure 5a
Highway Congestion (% »
in
Georgetown City
Round
87
161
211
91
30
27
0
18
94
110
7
20
0
107
0
47
87
92
174
42
24
44
11
37
84
120
21
32
11
117
36
83
81
94
186
96
92
101
117
75
115
150
98
98
101
115
91
45
90
102
208
114
156
115
114
79
134
156
88
86
84
83
91
61
8
116
93
156
132
147
142
147
83
152
155
114
133
108
116
128
108
14
8
70
116
220**
133**
141
150*
115*
113
155*
185*
100*
100*
83*
141
111
18
13
*Road is at maximum size
**Land not available for larger capacity road
184
-------
C. Frequency of Decisions
Figure 6 shows some of the major decision categories
and the number of successful and unsuccessful decisions made
each round. Two conclusions are readily apparent. First,
a large number of attempted decisions were flunked because
of procedural or substantive errors. In face, the percent
of decisions rejected did not decline much over time. Also,
in some cases such as housing builds in Round 6, the rejected
decisions were not even submitted in the following round.
Second, the economic decisions far outweighed the
government decisions, and both types far outweighed social
decisions. Purchase decisions declined after peaking Round
3. Rent changes were fairly numerous, and most were increases
levied by landlords in response to a seller's market. Price
changes were not numerous, as one would expect given the
monopoly position of most of the commercial establishments.
Salary changes peaked during the rounds when labor was most
scarce. The activity in maintenance decisions peaked in
Rounds 2 (the first chance the teams had to improve the
quality of housing) and 5 (for an unknown reason). Teams
quickly realized the alternative uses of their money in out-
side investments. Disinvestment did occur more toward the
later rounds as the national cycle declined and as local
investment money became scarce. Tremendous building of
businesses took place in Round 2, and much of the rest of
the play centered around adjusting to meet this growth
available in jobs. The housing shortage was never sufficiently
solved, but the gap opened up in Round 4 was narrowed.
In the social sector, many time allocations were
made when the first opportunity in Round 3 presented itself.
After change took place in the dollar values of time. More
lowering of dollar values would have assisted the Bus Company
in its efforts to gain maximum ridership.
All the government decisions in Rounds 2 and 3 were
director inputs, made in response to needs expressed by the
economic or social sectors. Appropriations were altered
from year to year (unchanged appropriation levels require
an annual input). Tax policy was exercised in Rounds 4, 6,
and 7. Wide spread assessment changes were made in Round 4
and were coordinated with the tax policy in an attempt to
intice more residential development. More residential de-
velopment did take place in the following round, but the
cause-effect relationship might be tenuous. Most of the
other departmental activity showed little pattern other than
fewer decisions over time. The one exception to this is the
Planning and Zoning Department which carried out a master
zoning plan in Rounds 7 and 8.
185
-------
Figure'6
FREQUENCY OF DECISIONS BY ROUND - GEORGETOWN*
ROUND
SCONOMIC
Purchases
Rents
Prices
Salaries
Maintenance
Inves t
Disinvest
Build-Business Levels
Build-Housing Units
50CIAL
Time
Value
30VERNMENT
Appropriations
Taxes
Assessment
Schools
Municipal Services
Highways
Bus
Planning-Zoning
Utilities
6 /207
15
0
0
15
7
0
37 /37
6
0
1
4
5
1
24
11
1
9
2
2
0
25
12
1
12 (T?
11
4
2
2
8
1
13 /J7
4
1
1
12
6
1
4
6
3
2
29
0
15
2
7 /IT/
0
5
-
-
-
-
-
4
6
8
3
4
12 /27
15
6
17
—
26
0
3
0
—
5 /
6 7
21
11
3 '
6
3 /10
£7
9 /T27
0
6
0
1
0
3
0
0
0
3
3
9
4
5 /T
6
13
2
4
2
4
1
7 5
106 7517
6 217
1 /_v
0
0
0
-
2
58
8 /I/
* Figures in boxes are the number of decisions rejected for procedural
or substantive errors. Procedural errors are coding mistakes and sub-
stantive errors are those that reflect system factors that prevent a
decision from being made (e.g., lack of cash, improper zoning, lack of
utilities, etc.)
186
-------
D. The Economic Sector
Midway through the play, the students were re-
quired to calculate the rate of return on all of their prop-
erties and to trace back the rate of return for the two most
profitable and the two least profitable investments. This
assignment proved to be a revelation to a number of the stu-
dents who were unaware of the declining profit rate that was
brought about by a rash of speculative overbuilding in Round 3,
The economic sector tended to build intensively
as opposed to extensively. Not many new parcels of land were
developed; rather, the original undeveloped land within the
initial development area was built upon. In fact, only one
new parcel was used for housing, even though the population
increased by 68 percent.
187
-------
E. The Social Sector
Although the students were not active in the social
sector, two major social indicators (per capita personal in-
come and dissatisfaction index) both improved over time.
The dissatisfaction level, however, did not decline as much
as in most of the other NSF cities. On the other hand, PCPI
was -higher in Georgetown by a large margin than in the other
NSF cities.
Figure 7 shows the number and distribution of Pi's
by class at the beginning (top of each parcel) and at the end
(bottom of each parcel) of play. Note that there is much
more income integration at the end of round 8 than there was
at beginning of play.
188
-------
Figure 7
GEORGETOWN CITY
Numbers of Population Units by Class and Parcel,
Rounds 1 and 8*
93 ICQ j Q £ lcs 106 1QS
t
t
.
t
t
.
•
•
»
•
•
•
*
£2
• •
t
•
•
•
*
*
,
•
»
« • « t
• • • «
»
• • • «
• « t t
• • • •
. 4-M „ 4fl .
' ZM • ... '
' * IH • •
. 3H , £M . ZM H
* IM I 5M • 4, H
• 3H . I I H . n H
2H . 2H i 1?^ , 4fMH
l"H ^HH
SH IM 40M * 43 M H
' J 'Sart • 3l H H
22a5s!ii|*i?22222jS2i-s2i?
fcH . £>» h [M . |JH .
• H • I/JM •
fH . IM H IH . iVn.
. SH . 4H H ^M •
• 2.M ' H »
• 8H « 3H H ffi .
« • 4M t h
. iM . IM H
. IH .
• • • •
* t • •
, 2.M H 2L . 3>L . TL ,^c y
' -, H Zt ' * I3U '
* ZL H 9M «*L * IM '*"" ~°.
' 'I- H ,ffl • 3iL * l»i- l ,, '
• liA ^ !X^ji^jigj!S2?i
-------
F. The Government Sector
Government activity in the Georgetown City in most
of the functional areas appeared to serve the demands of the
economic sector. For example, roads and utilities were placed
in the places and in the amounts necessary for the planned
economic development. Both of these departments showed in-
dications of operating less efficiently over time.
The Highway Department was spending 30 cents per
capita for highway maintenance in Round 1 and 42 cents per
capita for imaintenance in Round 8. With regard to the Utility
Department, the least efficient plant had a production cost
per unit of output that was 21 percent higher at the end of
the eight rounds. The production costs of the. most efficient
plant, on the other hand, declined 2 percent.
The School Department reduced the level of inequality
(ratio of use index at the most crowded school to the use index
at the least crowded school) over the eight years from 3.3
to 1.6. Inequality increased with regard for municipal ser-
vices, in that the inequality index went from 1.05 in Round 1
to 1.55 in Round 8. The population per square mile of parkland
declined slightly from 35.4 to 33.0 over the eight rounds.
190
-------
G. Summary
Student activity in the three sectors was very
uneven. Economic decisions dominated all others, and social
decisions were made sparingly. This did not, however, gen-
erate an improvement in economic indicators at the expense
of indicators in the other two sectors. In fact, the average
rate of return on investments in the system declined pver
the eight rounds. This was largely due to the overbuilding
that occurred midway in the play. This suggests that the
students may have observed and learned more about the inter-
action of economic decisions in the local system than of
either government or social decisions. A personal observation
is that the students learn more from the model in the sections
of the model that are most experimented with in a laboratory
sense.
191
-------
IV. Conclusions, Recommendations and Suggestions
A. Conclusions
1. The CITY MODEL provides an excellent tool
around which to develop an urban economics course, an urban
laboratory, or an economic decision-making seminar. A pro-
fessor can focus attention on (1) tying the urban and regional
economics literature to the model play, (2) allowing the stu-
dents to experiment with decision-making (current policy al-
ternatives or ones of their own design), and (3) providing the
students with a chance to demonstrate their ability to use
the box of economic tools that they have assembled in previous
courses.
2. The disadvantagages of having a student play
all three sectors simultaneously outweighs the advantages.
The main disadvantage is that the social sector receives very
little attention when a student has an option to make decisions
in the other sectors. Perhaps, because of the nature of the
social sector, students should never have any other responsi-
bilities when they are playing the social sector.
Other disadvantages of playing the three
sectors simultaneously are the handling of three sets of out-
put, making decisions that cover the full scope of the model,
establishing objectives in three diverse areas.
The advantages of playing all three sectors
simultaneously are the educational feature of having con-
flicting interests, seeing the model and the city from three
points of view at the same time, and playing the model with
a minimum number of students.
3. The CITY MODEL is a rich enough laboratory
device that caution should be used as to how many comple-
mentary exercises are undertaken during the course of a single
semester. I used parts of nine of the fourteen classes with
game plays (two for CLUG and seven for CITY MODEL) and the
remainder of the class time was devoted to discussion of
readings, research papers, Urban Dynamics, and the play.
Taken together, I feel that I attempted to cover too much
ground. A number of readings were never discussed, and insuf-
ficient time was given to an analysis of the play.
192
-------
4. The play of a round of the model is complex
and engrossing enough so that it is usually necessary to de-
vote a full class period to play. A class session that is
split between game play and any topic other than discussion
of the play has a high chance of being unsatisfactory for
either the play or the other exercise. On a number of oc-
casions a class session began with a discussion of assigned
readings and finished with a round of play. In each case,
as student questionnaires confirmed, the discussion was given
secondary effort as students looked ahead to the play. At
the same time, the play of the round did not receive the time
it needed.
5. The mechancis of the model are so formidable
during the first two or three rounds, that once the students
learn these, there is a chance of a let-down on the part of
some of them. There is the danger that some of the students
will feel that the purpose of playing CITY MODEL is to learn
how to play it, rather than to learn by making decisions and
receiving continual feedback in a hypothetical urban environ-
ment.
193
-------
B. Recommendations
The recommendations will be listed under three
categories of use of the CITY MODEL; those that apply to any
user of the model in a classroom situation, those that apply
specifically to the use of the model in an economics course,
and those that apply to the type of seminar-laboratory course
that I offered. These recommendations will be followed by
some general suggestions concerning the use of the model.
1. Classroom Use of City Model
a. Assign the social, economic, and govern-
ment teams in the model (AA, A, and SC, etc.) in such a way
that the students perform tasks in only one sector at a time.
If there are a small number of students (less than 22) make all
the gameroom teams (as opposed to the computer output or model
teams) composed of one player. For example, if there are only
twelve students, they would each comprise a team (numbered 1
through 12) and the gameroom team } might be assigned the model
teams of AA and DD, team 2 might be the sum of model economic
teams B and C, and team 12 might be the sum of SC and MS.
If there are more than 25 students but
less than 50, it would be necessary to make some two student
gameroom teams.*
b. The CITY MODEL functions performed by a
gameroom team should change several times during the course of
the play; The ideal way to have teams assume government positions
is to be elected or appointed to them. This may not be possible
at the start of play or the political dynamics may never evolve,
so the director must be ready to change team assignments when-
ever he sees the need or the benefit of doing so. Students
benefit from playing several widely different functions during
the course of the play.
*A11 of these recommendations are made assuming that the
user starts with the Blue City configuration which has seven
model economic teams, seven social teams, and from eight to
eleven government teams. If one of the other starting con-
figurations were used the number of students constituting cut
off points would be different. In fact, the director who
favors one man teams and has a large class might want to use
the Big City configuration which has 36 distinct model teams
or TriCity which has 44 distinct teams. On the other hand,
a very small class might get more use out of playing Moray
County which has a starting population of only 11,500 at the
start of play and only about ten model teams.
194
-------
c. Have access to a graduate assistant who
can handle the editing of player input forms, punch the in-
put cards, handle the running of the output, and provide over-
all assistance during the run of the model. This student could
very well be a member of the class. In either case, he should
be well versed in the operation of the model and in the rules
of the game.
This student will spend on the average
about an hour editing decisions, a little bit more punching
them, and whatever time is needed to input the decisions and
receive output for each round of play.
d. Do not attempt to cover too much ground
during the course, and thereby take away time from valuable
discussions of the "model" and the "game" that was played by
the class. The assumptions of the model can usefully be
questioned and alternative ones proposed. The goals, norms,
and results generated by the game play should be fully ex-
plored and the relation between individual and collective ob-
jectives analyzed. Attempts to define the "goodness" of the
final status of the city should be made.
e. Do not split a class meeting between play
of the model and some assignment not directly related to the
play. Do not expect to get the full attention of the students
during a class once output has been handed out.
f. Devise several strategies for handling
situations when a student or the class become let down as a
result of learning the mechanics of the play or finding their
function too easy to perform. If the whole class is in trouble,
an outside influence such as a new state regulation setting
school quality levels, utility rates, bonding, etc., might be
made. Or natural disaster might strike in the form of cash .
drains from all economic teams or buildings being destroyed
(director inputs). Or a new federal program to assist new
town development might be made, creative federal aid programs
might be introduced, or a federally imposed population level
might be promulgated.
In the case where an individual finds the
game too easy, he might be given an assignment to calculate
his actual rate of return of cost-effectiveness. Or he might
be given a tougher assignment. The tough assignments are Bus
Company operator (have the service pay for itself through
fares), Highway Department (eliminate all congestion), and
Assessment Department (assess according to the best use of
the land).
195
-------
2. Use of CITY MODEL in an Economics Course
a. Tie the urban economics literature to the
model when possible, and show where the model does not explicitly
deal with elements of economic theory. In the latter case,
there is a challenge to the student to devise a way for including
the missing element. For example, the issue of water pollution
is absent from the version of the CITY MODEL used in the NSF
program. The student who is interested in this omission could
devise a way for adding the water subsystem to the present
urban system contained in the CITY MODEL.
b. Encourage participation in the course by
students from other disciplines. The model is an interdis-
ciplinary device through which the student of economics may
learn to appreciate the usefulness and limitations of his
particular field of study. This learning will be aided if
other students in the course have some formal background in the
complementary disciplines of geography, political science,
urban affairs, and sociology. Likewise, the student from the
other disciplines may gain a better appreciation for the use-
fullness of economics.
c. Assign a research paper that is closely
related to the use, content, or outcome of the CITY MODEL.
Student papers over a number of semesters will build up a help-
ful library of source material and ideas for future classes.
In this way, the output from the students may be able to evolve
to a larger research product than any single semester would be
able to.
d. Assign specific economic projects and
reserve adequate time for the discussion of economic topics.
The first might be accomplished with assignments to calculate
the economic base of the simulated area, perform a PPBS analysis
of the government, calculate rates of return for various invest-
ments , or estimate benefit/cost ratios for specific govern-
ment projects. The discussions could deal with these topics
in addition to such other as the place of macro and micro
theory in the model, the economics of space, zero population
growth policies, new town developments, model cities programs,
revenue sharing, conventional intergovernmental fiscal rela-
tions, and others.
196
-------
3. Use of CITY MODEL in an Urban Seminar-Laboratory
Course
a. Have the class scheduled at such a time
that the students do not have any limitations on the length
of time they can stay at any one meeting. The seminar dis-
cussions that evolve or are planned should be ended by the
students on a voluntary basis and not by a ring of a bell. But
allow students to individually drift away at any point after
the first several hours.
b. Keep the class size to under 20 students
so that they can easily get to know one another on a first
name basis, and so that seminar-type discussions in which
everyone participates are possible.
c. Place strong emphasis on starting the
research paper early so that discussion of the rough drafts
can take place in the seminar when useful. Encourage the stu-
dents to perform all of their assignments in such a way that
it instructs the rest of the class and furthers the class
learning experience.
C. Suggestions
1. Make the city decision-making a long run
project by having the second semester begin play where the
first semester class left off. This would accomplish the
dual purposes of providing the first class with an added in-
centive for looking at the city and their own functions in a
serious way (and avoiding any end game strategies) and of
giving the second class a detailed city history from which
to learn the model more easily and see the reasons for the
present status of the city.
2. Attempt to load data into the model for a city
chosen by you or your class. This could well be a class pro-
ject that wpuld not yield a usable configuration until the
following semester. Making decisions for what looks like a
real city may be of some benefit and the process one must go
through to load a city teaches you a great deal about data
availability, parameter fitting, and the model itself.
197
-------
3. With a very large class or with several clas-
ses, play a number of CITY MODEL configurations simultaneously
and allow a few players to act as national businessmen who
may invest a specified amount of money in any of the cities,
in whatever desired mix each year.
4. Alter the assets of economic teams before the
start of play by making some teams have only industries, other
only commercial establishments, and others only residences.
Team cash balances can be reduced or increased to make growth
more difficult or easier.
198
-------
APPENDIX A
Rules for CLUG (Community Land Use Game)
1. Playing Board
CLUG is played on a board consisting of a 10 x 10 matrix
of squares. Each square (parcel) represents a square mile of
land. Any square can be referred to by its even numbered
coordinates appearing at the edge of the board. Major highways
and utility service can be located along any lines on the board
with appropriate odd numbers used to indicate a line. Any
grid line not otherwise designated, is assumed to be a
secondary road. Secondary roads cost three times as much to
travel along as major highways.
2. Development
Each parcel may be developed by the team owning it in one
of the nine uses shown in Figure I. Only one land use per
parcel is allowed. An HI1 may be upgraded to an HI2 by paying
the difference in their construction costs. Likewise, an Rl
may be upgraded to higher density levels.
A parcel may not be developed unless it is served by
utilities on at least one side. The extension of utilities
is a public decision made by the majority of teams. All
utilities must be connected in a continuous line to the
utility plant.
3. Steps of Play
After receiving the $100,000 initial capital, teams
(that are identified by letters A,B) perform a number of
operations during each round of play in the order specified.
1) Assess real property (Land and buildings are assessed
at purchase prices).
2) Receive income for Basic Industries (HI1 receives
$22,000 and HI2 receives $48,000 per round if they
have all required employees).
3) Pay employed Rl's. (Each employed Rl receives $6,000)
4) Pay PG, PS, and BG (These establishments receive
income based upon the number of customers they serve).
5) Pay transportation costs. (This money is paid to
outside business interests).
6) Pay taxes. (Taxes are the product of the established
tax rate of the previous round and the assessed value
of land and buildings).
7) Set tax rate. (Majority decision of teams).
8) Buy and sell land. (3 bids per team per round are
accepted with land ownership going to the highest
bidder. Minimum bid is $1000 per parcel)
9) Provide utilities. (Majority decision by teams.
(2000 for construction and $1000 for annual oper-
ation of each line).
199
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10) Construct or demolish buildings.(Demolition costs are
1/4th of construction costs).
11) Designate place of employment. (Employer and employee
make ageements).
12) Set prices in PG, PS, and BG establishments.
13) Sign trade agreements. (Buyers and sellers make agreements)
14) Receive interest (5% of cash on hand).
Steps 1-7 are not applicable in round fl. Initial play begins,
therefore, on step 8.
4. Employment and Shopping Agreements
Pi's will normally agree to work at employment locations
that minimize their transportation costs since salaries are
not variable.
Customers will normally agree to shop at establishments that
minimize the total cost of buying (the purchase price plus
transportation to the establishment). Customers will purchase
from outside establishments if no local establishment offers
an attractive enough price. An establishment may set only
one price per type of customer.
200
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Table I.- Unit Characteristics (in thousands)
CHARACTERISTIC TYPE OF UNIT
Basic Construction
Costs a ,
Income per round**
#of employees working
in
#of employees living
in
Approx. population
represented
Payroll expenses
Max. shopping cost
at PG
Max. shopping cost
at PS
Max. BG costs 4 2 1 1
a)See Table II.for reduced construction costs due to
specialization
b) Incomes for BG, PG, and PS are based upon an estimated
break-even market area; i.e., 6 residential units for
an PG, 12 residential units for a PS, or 3 industries for
an BG.
Table II. - Reduced Construction Costs due to Specialization
HI2
96
48
4
HI1
48
22
2
BG
36
12
1
PG
24
12
1
PS
24
12
1
R4
72
24
4
16
R3
48
18
3
12
R2
30
12
2
8
Rl
12
6
1
4
24
12
8
4
6
3
4
2
2
1
Unit to
be Built
1 st
2nd
3 rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
HI2
$96
90
85
80
80
80
75
75
75
75
(in thousands)
HI1 BG PS PG
$48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
$36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
$24
24
20
18
18
16
16
15
15
15
$24
20
18
18
18
16
16
15
15
15
R4
$72
72
72
67
67
67
62
62
60
56
R3
$48
48
48
45
45
45
42
42
40
38
R2
$30
30
30
28
28
28
26
26
25
23
Rl =
$12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
Table III. - Transportation Costs Between Units
(per mile of travel along best road type)
Type of Unit Traveling Type of Unit as Destination
" HI2 HI1 BG PS PG Terminal
HI2 $400 $4000
Hil 200 2000
PS
PG
Rl(for shopping)
Rl(for working)
$400
200
100
100
$100 $200
$300 $300 300 300 300
201
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PLAYING
s. UTILITY
2 4
8 10 12 14 16 18 20
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
48
8 10 12 14 16 18 20
202
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APPENDIX B
RESEARCH PAPERS
The students were obliged to write a research paper of
their own choosing. To give the students some food for
thought, the following research topics to think about:
List of Suggested Term Paper Topics
1. Build starting points for selected cities.
2. Scrapbook of newspaper articles on the city and
describe how these relate or do not relate to the
model and the course.
3. Flow chart the model in layman's terms
4. Develop a set of- urban indicators from the statistics
available in the model.
5. Act as the city historian or newspaper and catalog
the rounds of play.
6. Design manual modules to add to the model (air
pollution, water pollution, solid waste, crime,
race, legal system, political system, etc.)
7. Prepare 10 years of decisions to b ing the -I960
D.C. metropolitan model up to its 1970 status.
8. Examine the parameters of the model in light of
statistical studies and other models of urban
areas.
!
9. Examine the theory implied by the model (micro-
macro, production, finance, etc.)
10. Make a thorough review of a major book on the
urban system.
11. Develop a set of economic indices that reflect
growth, development, financing, urban prices and
other factors.
Several of these topics merited special comment, since
they had proved successful in my previous two courses in the
simulation of urban systems.
203
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The assignment to choose a real city, find data for it
and arrange the data to represent a new load configuration
for the model had been a most worthwhile exercise for the
students of earlier courses. There is probably no better
way for a student interested in the problems of data
availability and model parameter fitting to gain some
first hand experience in these two fields. The CITY MODEL
is broad enough in scope so that it allows the student a
wide range of data sources to be explored. However, the
student may choose any number of levels of sophistication
and thereby make the task one that takes a period of time
ranging from a week up to several weeks.
Becoming the city historian is a research paper assign-
ment that has benefit not only for the student doing it, but
also for the class as a whole. This particularly is true if
the student starts his assignment early in the play of the
model and summarizes the state-of-the-city at the start of
each round.
Another assignment which forces a student to under-
stand the urban environment in systems terms is that of
designing and, possibly, implementing a manual component to
add on to the CITY MODEL. For example, the addition of a
manual air pollution component would force the student to
relate the causes of pollution to activities in the model
(utilities, factories, transportation, etc.) and simulate
the effects of air pollution on the system (health, cleaning
costs, weather changes, etc.).
The following is a list of the research papers actually
chosen by students in the class:
1. Blue City; Georgetown (An Analysis of the Run of
the Model) by Bob Reid.
2. Bus Company Optimization Procedure by Patrick
Mulvanny
3.. Critique of Forrester's "Urban Dynamics" by "Wilfried
Ver ECcke
4. Economic Assumptions of the CITY MODEL by Janice
Decker
5. Madison, Wisconsin by Mark Meiners
6. Chicago, Illinois by Patrick Quinn
204
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7. Analysis of Factors Affecting Urban Transportation
Modal Split; With Application to a Model for
Washington, D. C. by Daniel Heckef
8. An Approach to Optimize the Size and Location of
Planned Communities by Ted Hume
9. A Review of the 14th Street Urban Renewal Project
by Michael Finnegan
205
-------
A brief description of the first five of these
research papers will be given now to provide some
flavor for the type of research performed .and how it
related to the CITY MODEL.
Bob Reid was elected Chairman in Round 4 in an
uncontested election. Simply put, he sought power
whereas no one else did. From this pivital position
Bob took advantage of his power over the budget and
departmental appointments to exercise a strong influ-
ence over the play. He described the play in some
detail. The following are some of the highlights.
On the play of the Social Sector:
"...a social act is whenever-the society acts
separately from its spokesman, the government.
In this context, I believe the record must show
that there were no social decisions made by our
community."
In response to his State of the City Report:
"Although this tendency to ignore the Chairman's
State of the City Reppirt was quite evident during
Rounds 3.,and 4, .the. opposite was the case^for the,
second Report ... -it had itsi.desired effect."
On the economic dynamics:
"Construction and land speculation began at a
furious pace — a pace only matched by the follow-
ing rate of return on capital, an event that could
have easily been predicted from the marginal
efficiency of capital schedule."
Bob calculated what he called the "Urban Business
Cycle" which was derived from the comparison of the
federal corporate profit tax paid (on the Summary Econom-
ic and Demographic Statistics output) to the dollar value
of private capital invested in the local system (the sum
of assessed value of development times the reciprocal of
the assessed valuation rate). Bob then compared this
cycle for Georgetown with the same cycle calculated for
several other NSF cities (Mankato State 70 and 71,
Memphis State and American) and with the cycle for HI and
LI. The results are in Figure C-l. Note that each local
cycle tends to be more severe than the national .cycles.
206
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FIGURE C-l
BUSINESS CYCLE INDICES FOR THE LOCAL AND NATIONAL ECONOMIES
(Rounds 1-7)
§" 1.60
,70
.80
ffscfct s/ry C: /
207
-------
Bob used his access to computer output from the other
NSF cities to make several other comparisons that helped
spur the Georgetown city decision-makers to look at them-
selves as being in competition with other cities within
a national system.
The high per capita personal incomes for Georgetown
(shown in Figure C-2) are more a reflection of the acute
labor shortage that existed in that city than a reflec-
tion of a humanitarian group of employers. In fact, Bob
developed another index that measured the extent of labor
shortage and showed how this was compared with the per
capita income changes.
A final comparison was made among the dissatisfaction
levels of the cities (Figure C-3).
208
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2-600
Vl
7
J
*
J
Q
10
o
DARTMOUTH
ti
M
i I
I !
! 1
H3 G
W g
jo n
en
o o
25 I
:. •;
8
7
s
-------
FIGURE C-3
AVERAGE HOUSING DISSATISFACTIONS FOR FIVE CITIES
(Rounds -1-?)
! • • :
! -
R
no
2
v
fc
VI
5
VO
tl
•a
-o
UJ
Vs
I
10*
f'
'S.
//
/
-------
Patrick Mulvanny performed what is to my knowledge
the most intensive bit of research with regard to the
CITY MODEL. After spending several frustrating rounds
as the director of the Georgetown city bus company, Pat
set out to develop an optimizing procedure for operating
(setting routes and fares) the buses for the local sys-
tem. The key to his analysis is the clever way he used
the Employment Selection Information (the employment
details) to see who the potential bus riders along each
potential one mile route would be.
Starting with the employment details that show the
route and mode by each Pi employed at a job other than
for schools, MS or bus, and with the dollar value of
times as set by the social sector, Pat calculated a
"switch point" (the maximum fare per year that could be
charged and still allow the worker to choose to take a
bus) for each employment grouping on a parcel (see
Figure C-4). Following this procedure, a maximum revenue
for each mile segment of bus service can be calculated
and associated with a given fare. Then one mile segments
that do not pay can be dropped in a sequential fashion
and a final uniform fare established. Although the
procedure would require a computer to assist in its oper-
ation, the concept is clear and the reader learns a great
deal about the strengths and weaknesses of transportation
in the CITY MODEL by studying the paper.
211
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APPENDIX C
READING REPORTS
(Spring 1971)
Three reading reports are due during the semester.
On one single-spaced typewritten page, describe one
reading from each of three major se.ctors: Systems, Models,
and Games. 'As a conclusion to each report, list at least
one thing you liked about the reading and at least one thing
you disliked about the reading.
All reports will be xeroxed on the date they are due
and hafcded out to all other people in the seminar. Type
your name at the end of the report and indicate with the
following code your recommendation of the reading to your
fellow seminar members.
1. Definitely should be read
2. Is of interest
3. Don't bother
•>
The readings are listed within the three major sectors
under two categories: A and B. The B readings are longer
and more difficult to complete. Don't chose a difficult
reading unless you have the time to. devote to it. Although
the reading reports will be graded, keep in mind that the
major purpose of this exercise is to expose ourselves to a
portion of the literature in these fields. If you have any
readings you think should be added to the list, please
suggest them.
The due dates are:
1. Systems Report - March 3
2. Model Report - March 17
3. Gaming Report - March 31
Reports may be handed in anytime prior to these dates.
212
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SYSTEMS READINGS
Class A (Short)
1. Brian J. L. Berry, "Cities as Systems Within Systems
of Cities," 22 pages
2. Kenneth E. Boulding, "The Economics of the Coming
Space Ship Earth," 11 pages.~~~'
3. "Notes on Complex Systems," from Jay Forrester, Urban
Dynamics, MIT.
4. Anthony James Catanese and Alan Walter Steiss, "The
Search for a Systems Approach to the Planning of Complex
Urban Systems," Plan, April, 1969, 13 pages.
5. Bertran M. Gross, "The City of Man; A Social Systems
Reckoning," 21 pages.
6. William F. Hamilton II and Dana K. Nance, "Systems
Analysis of Urban Transportation," Scientific American,
July, 1969, Vol. 221, No. 1, 9 pages
7. Kenneth E. Boulding, "General Systems Theory - The
Skeleton of Science," from Walter Buckley, Modern
Systems Research for the Behavioral Scientist, Aldine,
8 pages.
8. John H. Rubel, "An Urban American Report on Business in Urban
Development," 20 pages
213
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SYSTEMS READINGS
Class B (Long)
1. Garrett Hardin, "The Cybernetics of Competition; A
Biologist's View of Society , "21 pages
2. J. Brian McLoughlin, "Urban and Regional Planning,"
Frederick A. Praeger Publishers, 310 pages.
3. F. Kenneth Berrien, "General and Social Systems,"
Rutgers University Press, 204 pages.
4. Locational Analysis in Human- Geography , Peter Raggett,
London : Edward Arnold Publishers Ltd., 27 pages
5. Walter Buckley (editor) , Modern Systems Research for
the Behavioral Scientist, Aldine Publishing Co.,
Chicago, 30 pages (select**
6. Donald F. Blumberg, "The City as a System," Decision
Sciences Corporation, 50 pages
214
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MODEL READINGS
Class A (Short)
1. Locational Analysis in Human Geography, Chapter 1
"Assumptions."Peter Hagget, 27 pages.
2. "The Pittsburgh Urban Renewal Simulation Model."
William Steger, 6 pages
3. "A Short Course in Model Design," Ira Lowry, 8 pages,
AIP, May, 1965.
4. "Computer Simulations, Physio-economic Systems, and
Intra-regional Models," John Kain and John Meyer (AER
May 1968), 16 pages
5. "Computer Simulations in Urban Research," John Crecine,
PAR, 11 pages
6. "Regional Economics: A Survey," John Meyer, 41 pages,
AER
7. "The Uses of Theory in the Simulation of Urban Phenomena,
AIP, September, 1966, Britton Harris, 15 pages.
215
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MODEL READINGS
Class B (Long)
1. Bay Area Simulation Study (San Francisco), Center for
Real Estate and Urban Economics, 447 pages.
2. A Model of Metropolis (Pittsburgh), Ira Lowry, 136 pages,
3. A Probabilistic Model for Residential Growth (North
Carolina), Thomas Donnelly, et.al., 65 pages
4. Factors Influencing Land Development (North Carolina),
P. Stuart Chapin, Jr. and Shirley F. Weiss, 101 pages.
5. A Dynamic Model of the Economy of the Susquehanna River
Basin, Battelle Memorial Institute, 250 pages.
6. Urban Dynamics, Jay Forrester, 285 pages.
7. San Francisco Community Renewal Program, Arthur D.
Little,Inc.,(excerpts)45 pages
8. A Model of Residential Land Values, E. F. Brigham, 91
pages
9. Urban Performance Model, Planning Research Corporation,
51 pages
10. Design and Use of Computer Simulation Models, James R.
Emshoff and Roger L.Sisson, MacMillan Co.,1970,
302 pages.
11. Regional Development and Planning (entire issue of AIP,
May, 1964), 100 pages.
216
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GAMING READINGS
Class A (Short)
1. Allan G. Feldt, "Operational Gaming in Planning Education,"
American Institute of Planners. January, 1966, 7 pages.
2. Richard L. Meier and Richard D. Duke, "Gaming Simulation
for Urban Planning," American Institute of Planners,
January, 1966, 14 pages.
3. Herbert W. Fraser, Simulation and Game Approach to the
Teaching of Economic Principles, A Preliminary Report,
Washington University, 19 pages.
4. James S. Coleman, Games as Vehicles for Social Theory,
The American Behavioral Scientist, 5 pages.
5. Simulation Games for the Social Studies Classroom^ New
Dimensions, An FPA School Services Publication for
Teachers, 47 pages.
6. John L. Taylor and Kenneth R. Carter, Instructional
Simulation in Urban Development; A Preliminary Report,
20 pages.
7. Allan Feldt, Some Thoughts and Speculations on the
Development and Use of Games in Teaching and Research,
6 pages.
8. Harold Guetzkow, Simulation in Social Science Readings,
Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey,
36 pages.
9. Erwin Rausch, The Community, Science Research Associates,
Chicago, Illinois, 1968. 22 pages with worksheets.
10. Norton Long, The Local Community as an Ecology of Games,
November, 1958, 12 pages.
11. Peter House and Philip Patterson, "An Environmental
Gaming Simulation Laboratoryr|" AIP, November, 1969, 6
pages.
12. Ellen Berkeley, "The New Game'smanship," Architectural
Forum, December, 1968, 6 pages.
217
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GAMING READINGS
Class B (Long)
1. Kalman J. Cohen, William R. Dill, Alfred A. Kuehn, and
Peter R. Winters, The Carnegie Tech Management Game —
An Experiment in Business Education, Richard D. Irwin,
Inc., Homewood, Illinois, 1964, 55 pages.
2. Hans B. Thorelli and Robert L. Graves, International
Operations Simulation, The Free Press of Glencoe,
Collier-MacMillan Ltd, London, 391 pages.
3. William A. Gamson, SIMSOC — Simulated Society, The
Free Press, New YorFji 29 pages — Instructor's Manual.
4. William A. Gamson, SIMSQC — Simulated Society, The
Free Press, New York, 108 pages - Players' Manual
5. Annual Report to the Ford Foundation, December, 1968,
Computer Equipment for Urban Research and Training —
The M.E.T.R.O. Project. The University of Michigan,
School of Natural Resources, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
6. John R. Raser, Simulation and Society — An Exploration
of Scientific Gaming, Allyn and Bacon, Inc., Boston,
159 pages.
7. Roger Caillois, Man, Play and Games, (translated from the
French by Meyer Barash), The Free Press of Glencoe, Inc.
202 pages.
8. Selwyn Enzer, Theodore J. Gordon, Richard Rochberg and
Robert Buchele, A Simulation Game for the Study of State
Policies, The Institute for the Future, Middletown,
Connecticut (September, 1969), 69 pages
9. Barry Lawson, New Town - An Urban Land Use and Development
Game, Instruction Booklet,1969,49 pages with illustrations
0
10. Hans B. Thorelli, Robert L. Graves, and Lloyd T. Howells,
INTOP Players Manual, "International Operations Simulation,"
The University of Chi ago, The Free Press, 1963, 55 pages.
11. The Northeast Corridor Transportation Game, Vol I, Planning
Simulation and Administrator's Manual, AST Associates Inc.,
Cambridge, Massachusetts, July,1968. Prepared for the
Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards,
89 pages.
12. Venture, Business Simulation Exercise, The Proctor and
Gamble Co., Cincinnati, Ohio, 86 pages with illustrations.
218
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Gaming Readings - Class B (Long) - Continued
13. APEX; A Gaming Simulation for Air Pollution Experience
In a Simulated Metropolitan Environment/ Richard Duke,.
December, 1968, 100+ pages.
219
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Chapter IX
"CITY MODEL" USAGE IN THE
URBAN STUDIES INSTITUTE
Of
Mankato State College
by
Robert A. Barrett
220
-------
"CITY MODEL" USAGE IN THE
URBAN STUDIES INSTITUTE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
222
Introduction
224
The Course
* «-, 227
Organization of Players
229
GAME RESULTS
213
Concluding Observations
226
APPENDIX A
238
APPENDIX B
239
APPENDIX C
241
APPENDIX D
243-
APPENDIX E
245
APPENDIX F
221
-------
"City Model" Usage in the
Urban Studies Institute
Mankato State College
Robert A. Barrett*
The "City Model" was utilized in the interdisciplinary program in Urban
Studies at Mankato State College in two formal courses which I instructed and
one independent study course which the students organized. This utilization
during the 1970-1971 academic year was sponsored by the college and Envirc-
metrics as part of an NSF project to test the applicability of the "City
Model" in selected disciplines and academic institutions. The experimentation
reported upon in this chapter proved to be an absorbing and rewarding experi-
ence to both the students and the instructor.
Introduction
My first experience with urban simulation came when Dr. Royce Hanson,
director of the Washington Center for Metropolitan Studies, introduced me to
the urban simulation lab which the Center had established under the direction
of Dr. Peter House. I was afforded an opportunity to experience some "rounds"
*Dr. Robert A. Barrett is Director of the interdisciplinary Institute for
Urban Studies and Professor of Political Science. Mr. Frederick Sauer pro-
vided valuable assistance in the accomplishment of this experiment.
222
-------
of the game and met some of the lab staff members. I became quite intrigued
with the potential of the urban simulation lab to provide opportunities for
theory building and concept testing in the urban studies curriculum.
My own academic training had focused first upon the sciences and then
the social sciences leading to graduation from Hamline University in St. Paul
with a double major in Social Science and Mathematics. When I joined the
graduate program as a fellow in government and public administration at
American University I was strongly interested in Political Science. My
interests began to focus upon the city and its politics as I worked closely
with my major advisor, Royce Hanson. These interests grew when I entered
college teaching as a member of the faculty at Mankato State College, a
regional Institution in Southern Minnesota with an enrollment of 15,000
graduate and undergraduate students.
My early interests on the Mankato State.faculty were twofold: to intro-
duce significant opportunities within the Political Science curriculum for
the study of cities and to work with sister disciplines, particularly the
social sciences, to organize an interdisciplinary degree program in Urban
Studies. The first interest was realized through the adoption by the Polit-
ical Science Department of courses such as Urban Government, Urban Planning,
Urban Administration, Urban Seminar and field study and internship experiences
in the urban environment. The second interest matured into a healthy dialogue
and collective action by several disciplines whereby our disciplines were
married together into a B.S. and M.A. degree program for urban generalists
seeking urban planning and urban management careers. More than two dozen
faculty from over one dozen disciplines now cooperate on a refreshingly inter-
disciplinary scale to teach and research topics in Urban Studies in the Urban
Studies Institute. The students in this program, numbering about 150, are
-------
upper division and graduate students whose previous experience has largely
been in the social sciences. Furthermore, our students' background has
typically been textbook oriented without substantial experiences within an
urban environment. Consequently, our efforts to provide realistic urban
learning environments through intensive field study camps and internship
work experiences found a natural learning complement in the use of the urban
simulation lab.
i
The Course
The "City Model" was utilized within the framework of two of the core
courses of the Urban Studies curriculum. The first course was the Urban
Studies Seminar which is offered to senior and graduate majors after they
have completed a series of discipline based courses in the social sciences.
The course is taught from an interdisciplinary approach with small enroll-
ments (8 to 15 students) and with an emphasis upon analysis and discussion.
In the seminar the class alternated use of the game with seminar meetings
focused upon research and analysis of New Towns as an approach to the city
as a system. The second course was Urban Government which is offered to
junior/senior and graduate majors and non-majors who are interested in con-
temporary governmental and political problems of metropolitan areas. This
lecture course generally enrolls a moderate number of students (30 to 40) .
and is taught from the Political Science discipline. In this course the game
was alternated with conventional lectures which surveyed the standard topics
of contemporary urban government. Selection of these courses for use with
the "City Model" was largely a factor of the course schedule and the previous
course work backgrounds of students enrolled in these courses. Whereas these
courses had been partially redesigned at the outset, it became obvious during
224
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the conduct of these courses that not only the methods but also the objectives
required serious modification. Consequently, I discovered that the usage of
urban simulation required not only a rearrangement of the course syllabus but
a major adjustment of the course objectives of these courses which had origin-
ally been developed to be taught with more conventional instructional techniques.
The primary objectives for the use of "City Model" in these courses were
several. In the first instance, it was hoped that the model would afford a
more multi-dimensional understanding of the city as a system. It was hoped
that theory building and concept testing would be encouraged and would take
place within an experimental context. For instance, concepts of decision-
making and community power are capable of close observation and testing in the
game dynamics. It was anticipated that the dynamics of negotiation, represen-
tation, advocacy, and related "role" activities would be meaningful and in-
sightful experiences. A further objective was to sharpen the analytical capa-
bilities of the class participants. Finally, the use of the game was to be
tested as an effective learning experience within the established Urban Studies
curriculum.
The course described in this chapter is the Urban Government course with
an enrollment of 35 senior and graduate students majoring in Urban Studies or
Political Science. The course was scheduled to meet one afternoon a week for
three hours and the instructor received continuing assistance from a graduate
assistant. The game was played on alternate weeks with an analytical and
strategic discussion taking place during those alternate weeks when the game
was not played. The following table illustrates a typical two-week schedule:
225
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Table I
Schedule of Course Activities
A. Week I
Time
Activity
30 minutes
30 minutes
30 minutes
60 minutes
30 minutes
Course assignments, general discussion.
Distribute results from last game round, cite highlights
and trends, players record progress toward individual
objectives.
Players analyze progress, revise role objectives, formu-
late strategies.
Players negotiate with government, economic and social
sectors to maximize progress towards stated objectives.
Players complete decisions, write out decisions and
report to game director.
B. Week II
120 minutes
15 minutes
45 minutes
Course lecture and discussion.
Distribute "BLUECITY GAZETTE" and "PEOPLE'S ADVOCATE".
Hold "town meeting" to discuss and analyze progress in
game and relate game to course objectives. <,
The above schedule varied for purposes of the introductory session,
examination periods and other related coursework. In retrospect, it would have
been more advantageous to have the course meet twice weekly for two or two and
one-half hours each meeting so that the participants would have shorter
elapsed time intervals. In the intervals between the meetings described above
the graduate assistant edited the "newspaper", prepared computer input and
output, developed visual presentations and assisted the players. The players
held numerous informal meetings for strategy and analysis-and were generally
infected with a high level of interest and enthusiasm.
226
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Organization of_ Players
At the initial class meeting the students decided who should be mayor and
then self-selected their role in the social sector or economic sector. Hence,
each of the students became a player in one of the three sectors.
The government sector of Blue City were structured after a commission form
of local government whereby the government officials were both council members
and department commissioners. The structure was devised more for the purpose
of convenience relative to the limited number of players than for a desire to
structure some "desirable" form of local government. The government participants
were as follows: the Mayor, Transportation Commissioner, Planning and Zoning
Commissioner, Education Commissioner, and the Public Works Commissioner.
The Mayor was elected by a simple majority of the class participants.
Each candidate gave a platform speech indicating his or her respective objec-
tives for Blue City as well as the intended short and long-range plans. After
the election of a "liberal" mayor for the city, he then selected his staff of
commissioners. The Mayor's responsibility consisted of overviewing the general
administrative policies for the city as well as directing the publication of
the People's Advocate newspaper. The People's Advocate, as opposed to the Blue
City Gazette, was a government publication. It assumed the role of indicating
the "accomplishments" of Blue City to the public as well as future goals and
plans. It may be interesting to note that the opinions expressed in the People's
Advocate and the Blue City Gazette varied considerably. The Mayor, at numerous
meetings, characterized the Blue City Gazette in terms of "yellow journalism".
The responsibilities of each commissioner were as follows: the Transporta-
tion Commissioner assumed the role of overseeing the building, maintenance, and
administrative activities of roads, bus and rail. The Planning and Zoning Com-
missioner was responsible for assessment and zoning activity of Blue City. The
Education Commissioner was responsible for the building, maintenance and locatior
227
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of public, private and vocational schools. The Public Works Commissioner
directed the building and maintenance of municipal services and utilities.
The Economic teams, by virtue of their assigned responsibilities, had a
greater degree of influence than did the Social teams with respect to influ-
encing the growth of Blue City. The assigned responsibilities of the Economic
decision makers involved bidding on and/or purchasing land or developments;
changing rents, prices, salaries and maintenance levels; transferring cash;
lending, borrowing and investing capital; and building, upgrading or demolish-
ing developments. Ir was found preferable to have at least two participants
for each Economic team. With a limited number of participants, it was also
determined that Economic teams should consist of more participants than the
Social teams.
The assigned responsibilities of the Social teams involved voting, boy-
cotting, time allocation, and setting the dollar value of time. Apart from
the assigned responsibilities to the Social decision-makers from the manual, it
was determined that the Social teams should have a greater degree of political
influence. A simple majority of the Social decision-makers could recall the
mayor and provide for the election of a new mayor, and they were also given
a 'Veto" role through the referendum over certain bond and zoning decisions.
The Blue City Gazette reported statistical city data from one round to
the next as well as editorialized on the activity of the Mayor and his staff.
It was found that the Gazette afforded the class participants a vehicle for
assessing the development of Blue City. The People's Advocate offered a basis
of comparison between the statistical data as well as the Mayor's own interpre-
tation of the data. The use of "newspapers" was found to be an effective com-
munications link between the various sectors and also aided the student's com-
prehension as to "What is happening to our city?"
228
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GAME RESULTS
At the outset of the game each of the players was required to formulate
an explicit set of objectives for his sector and his role. Once during the
term he revised these objectives in light of experience and changed attitudes.
At the close of the term he analyzed his own rounds of play as to how well he
achieved his objectives and what factors contributed to his success and failure.
Likewise, he evaluated the performance of Blue City as a system and as a learn-
ing experience. A review of the results of the student's experiences is most
revealing.
In the government sector the Mayor and his Commissioners had wished to
first increase the supply of jobs in construction and manufacturing to lower
unemployment. One method used to accomplish the objective was to grant public
subsidies to private housing construction and manufacturing industries. This
objective was met in part during the last round when 80 new jobs were created.
Unemployment dropped from its highest level of 8,760 workers in round three to
zero unemployment in round six. This was largely attributed to new construc-
tion which offered new jobs of major impact for the unemployed.
The second objective of the government sector consisted of providing a
higher standard of living for the poor. The criteria for a higher standard of
living for the poor was to raise the welfare payments from $l,500/family/year
to $2,500/family/year. This was done by round six which was the last round
the first Mayor held office. Rounds seven, eight, and nine, however, reflect a
\
decreased welfare payment to $l,600/family/year which was a different policy by
the new Mayor in the second quarter of play.
A third objective of 'the Mayor was to increase the supply of housing for
low income families, particularly in the northeast section of Blue City. The
demographic map, however, indicated little or no increase in housing for the
229
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northeast section.
A fourth objective of the Mayor was to increase public participation by
holding town meetings on local issues and by the publication of a newspaper
called The People's Advocate. Town meetings were held during each class
session. The Mayor, however, seemed to find a great deal of opposition to
several issues, most of which are reported in the Blue City Gazette, copies
of which appear in the Appendix. One issue of considerable debate, particularly
from the Economic Sector, involved the Mayor's policy to increase welfare pay-
ments. The Economic Sector thought it more advisable to increase the quality
and quantity of public utilities which would assist in the development of new
construction which would provide the needed jobs. As was noter earlier, wel-
fare payments were increased. A recall election was then held as a result of
the wishes of the Economic Sector. The Mayor won reelection by three votes
and he termed his victory to be a "clear mandate".
The objectives of the Commissioners of the Mayor's departments were
numerous. The Transportation Commissioner wanted to increase the number of
bus routes. This objective was not realized because of bureaucratic red tape
and procedural errors. The Commissioner once unsuccessfully attempted to
establish a bus route through a farmer's corn field. The Planning Director's
objective was thwarted when agreement upon a comprehensive plan was not ob-
tained. The Education Commissioner wanted to improve the quality of education
but continually found populated areas without established school district
boundaries. It was also found that the average educational level decreased
from an index of 60 in round one to 57 in round six. At the same time, the
student-teacher ratio increased from 14 to 15. The Commissioner of Public
Works wanted to build a new utilities plant to provide for expanded construc-
tion but he forgot to transfer monies from the operating budget to the capital
construction budget.
230
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Many of the objectives of the Social and Economic Sectors are mutually
dependent upon one another as well as the policies of the Government. Social
decision makers attempted to increase the educational level, increase employ-
ment opportunities, increase voter registration, allocate time more effectively,
encourage convenient mass transportation, improve quality and construction of
housing, develop additional recreational areas, encourage effective government
spending, and develop a "collective spirit for decision making". With refer-
ence to the latter objective the Social decision makers were encouraged to meet-
collectively relative to their recently established power in having the decid-
ing vote on bond issues and major zoning changes.
The objectives of the Economic Sector were essentially self-interest
rather than public-interest oriented. The basic criteria for success was
economic profit. The primary means attempted to obtain a profit was through
land development and construction. The question of conflicting objectives
between the Economic Sector and the Social and Government Sectors did not
occur relative to the type of construction as originally thought. This could
possibly be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive development plan for
zoning regulation and development. The basic conflict of objectives that
arose between the Economic, Social and Government Sectors was concerned with -
the way in whiah tax dollars were being spent. A priority issue of the Mayor's
platform was to help the poverty groups in Blue City by increasing welfare pay-
ments. This policy took priority over providing additional utility service
and large government subsidies to the Economic Sector for utility construction
purposes. Without the required utility levels, additional construction was
impossible. The Economic Sector argued that building construction would pro-
vide jobs for the lower income groups. The Mayor felt that the welfare pay-
ments were too low and that the additional costs of raising welfare payments
231
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to $2,500 from $1,000 should be the first priority.
Since construction and land development was one immediate economic objec-
tive, it was generally felt by the Economic Sector that this objective was not
/
met to the degree that had been projected.
Another economic objective was to bid, buy and develop available land out-
side the city parameters. This effort was made in an attempt to establish a
"New Town" which failed since many of the bids were too low.
Perhaps the greatest value which the "City Model" game possessed for the
Economic Sector was the insight gained in the necessary procedures and conse-
quential problems of spending dollars to gain a profit. New construction re-
quired the proper zoning, capital investment, the type and availability of land,
utility service, road access, and convenient mass transportation. Each step
was confronted with either a conflicting or cooperative effort on the part of
the Social and Government Sectors.
The Government, Economic and Social Sectors were confronted with a number
of frustrations in attempting to meet their objectives. The challenge of the
game which coincides with the frustrations is, in itself, a valuable learning
experience. The city as a whole did improve considerably through eight years.
With a total increase in population of 51%, the total increase in employed
workers was 55%. There was a 65% increase in low income workers, 47% increase
in middle income workers, and a 56% increase in high income workers. Through
four of the eight years there was no unemployment and no welfare expenditures.
With public school enrollemnt increasing 17% and private school enrollment in-
creasing 68%, the average educational level declined 9%. The average number
of new jobs increased 60% which reflects an expanding community. Although the
city initially had an average increase of 120% for outstanding bond payments
in the first four years, there were no outstanding bond payments the last four
years. The increased development of Blue City was financed with a 28% increase
232
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in revenue from taxes, much of which is attributable to an increase in tax-paying
population rather than any substantial increase in tax rates.
Concluding Observations
A series of evaluations have been made of the utilization of the City
Model game in(our Urban Studies curriculum. In the first instance the partici-
pants conducted an evaluation of the game which is summarized in the following
table with references to advantages, disadvantages and recommendations for
modifications.
Table II
Participant Reactions
Advantages
Increased understanding of the role of government personnel and as-
sociated "red tape".
A better understanding of the conflicts between the government eco-
nomic and social sectors in an urban environment bying for a scarce
resource and the need for public service.
The City Model Game more closely assimilates a pragmatic urban problem-
solving approach than that of a "text book" approach.
Next best thing to job experience.
A situation in which one feels the general frustration involved in
attempting to promote change. This necessitates better communica-
tion between interests and increases one's understanding of vested
interest as well as the cause-effect relationships between govern-
ment, economic, and social participants.
Disadvantages
Problems in understanding the computer language as they apply to de-
sired decisions.
Lack oi formal prerogratives in the social sector in making decisions
that would have a greater consequence for the city as a whole. (This
was corrected somewhat in giving the social participants new powers.)
The government sector did not establish a clear system of priorities.
They reacted more toward the "outside system.
233
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Disadvantages (Continued)
The class was made up of a relatively homogeneous group of college
students rather than a representative heterogeneous group that gen-
erally live in an urban society.
The time limitation in carrying out long-range programs.
Recommendations
A need for a more graphic display of the city.
More available time should be given to play of the game with several
rounds played in one day.
Initiate field trips to local units of government in order to better
translate and compare the statistical data of Blue City with an actual
urban situation of a similar nature.
Hold town meetings at regular intervals where all class members can
participate.
Open up a means for communicating with other schools playing the City
Model Game.
Providing the social sector the power to determine the need for bond-
ing and zoning changes through a referendum. This may be a vehicle
for the social decision makers to better organize and participate to
a greater degree in "role playing". (This was changed for the next
game.)
Provide a'better understanding of how specific decisions affect the
"dissatisfaction index".
Concentrate on the importance of "role playing" prior to starting
play of the City Model Game.
The objectives which I had suggested at an earlier point in this chapter
were all capable of examination during the utilization of the game. My basic
evaluation is highly positive regarding the value of the game as a learning
tool. The participants demonstrated a far more sophisticated appreciation of
1 . . . .
the city at the close of the term. Many standard concepts were applied and
hence tested in the game. The existence of conflict and personality became
important to the players. Coalition and strategy building exercises were
realistic. The frustration and delay of the "real system" became more obvious.
234
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The analytical techniques of the students were tested and improved. The
existence of the city with many dimensions and a system was demonstrable.
The use of gaming improved the student/instructor relationship and provided an
absorbing learning experience for the students. Considerable student iniative
was demonstrated, including the continued play of the game on an independent
study basis.
From our use of the game it would appear more appropriate to use the
"City Model" in an "Urban Systems" or "Urban Simulation" course where it is
the primary course method and the course can be developed around the game. It
is very desirable to have the game mounted on a computer in close proximity
so as to minimize the "turn around" inconvenience. The help of a graduate
assistant or student assistant is imperative. I would suggest that the "intel-
lectual payoff" of the City Model is highest within an interdisciplinary course
because the game is an excellent interdisciplinary tool whereas for Students
from only one discipline much of the role-playing is beyond their experience.
It would appear that this tool would have greater advantage for advanced
students rather than beginning students.
Based upon this experience with gaming in the Urban Studies curriculum, I
have concluded that gaming can perform a valuable function within the curriculum,
It is an excellent experience for students to test and hypothesize about real
urban environment relationships. The dynamics of the game are very revealing.
This model permits the urban social scientist to enjoy many of the laboratory
experiences which prove to be of strong benefit to the Urban Studies student.
The appendices which follow contain examples of the "newspapers" developed
by the students to upgrade communication about the game and selected statistics
about the rounds of play of "Blue City".
235
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APPENDIX A
BLUECITY GAZETTE
Vol. 1 Tuesday, January 26, 1971 No. 1
SUPERMAYOR McCARTY ELECTED.'
PLEDGES A GOOD LIFE FOR ALL CITIZENS OF BLUECITY!
PLEDGES A GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVE TO THE PEOPLE!
PLEDGES A CHICKEN IN EVERY POT.'.
After one year under "Supermayor McCarty and his cronies, BLUE CITY is
in a super-mess.
UPI Report; The spotlight of national attention has recently been focused
on BLUE CITY, Minnesota. For the past three months, 6,800 welfare recipients
have been picketing the office of "Supermayor" McCarty. As reported by one
staff member (who would not give his name), "the steps of City Hall have been
so crowded the Mayor has not been able to get to his office for three months."
It has also been reported that as a consequence of this uprising the Mayor has
been, conducting his business from what he affectionately calls "Supercar" (the
car only uses premium gas).
The uprising from welfare recipients seems to have come about from when
the Mayor lowered welfare payments from $1,500 to $1,000 per year. As a con-
sequence, the "average dissatisfaction level index went from '0' to '112'."
The Mayor has been unavailable for comment.
EDITORIAL
by
"Star Reporter"
This is not the kind of national attention our city needs! After further
digging several unhealthy facts were uncovered about BLUE CITY. Total unemploy-
ment went from 4,200 people to 6,800 people - an increase of 38%I All the un-
employed were from low income families. This is not a government responsive to
all the people. On top of lowering welfare payments, the Mayor established a
new tax without letting the citizens know! The new tax is an Employee Automobile
Tax that places .01% on people working in the downtown area. One resident was
quoted as saying, "The Mayor has done nothing to upgrade the downtown business
area. Furthermore, he goes and raises taxes on my car. I think everyone is
going to move out of the downtown business district. We'll let the Mayor and
his staff work there all by themselves, and then we'll see if they continue the
Employee Automobile Tax."
Other facts have also been uncovered. The residents in Square 338 have no
school because the Public Works Commissioner, who is in (Continued on Page 2)
236
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Tuesday, January 26, 1971
(Continued from Page I)
charge of public education, forgot to draw the school boundary lines to include
this area. One irate mother said, "I would like to know how the Mayor expects
us to educate our children when it is the city's job. I think that we are going
to picket with the people on welfare!"
The Transportation Commissioner attempted to re-route the bus line, but
overlooked che fact that there weren't any streets over the new route. One
farmer, while pitching ;iay, noticed a bus ambling through his cornfield. He
said he couldn't believe his eyes, and wondered if the city gave discount rates
for chickens, hogs, cows and horses.
The housing situation is unbelieveable poor in the "Nord-East" section of
BLUE CITY. New construction and upgrading of housing is badly needed in this
section. The population of BLUE CITY has increased from 275,500 to 282,000.
There has been no proposal to develop a land use or zoning plan for the city.
With an increase in the city's population, no new jobs have been created.
Available new jobs went from zero to zero! The Mayor must establish a policy
that will make BLUE CITY a progressive city.
If anyone can find the "Supercar", please call the BLUE CITY GAZETTE. The
Mayor should respond to the people - and our problems!
237
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APPENDIX B
BLUE CITY GAZETTE
Vol. 1 Tuesday, February 15, 1971 No. 2
MAYOR MCCARTY WINS RECALL ELECTION:
APPOINTMENTS REMAIN THE SAME
The "goo-goos" of BLUE CITY, in their attempt to recall the Mayor and his
staff, * failed in their efforts. By the vote of twenty to seven, the Mayor was
retained. ; He was quoted as saying, "This is a clear mandate for my programs I"
The Mayor, however, was four votes from losing his Supercar.
,.Perhaps the most devastating decision the Mayor has made is advocating
additional bonding for city expenses. BLUE CITY is spending a total of $34.09
million this year for the interest on bonds. This represents almost a 50% in-
crease in interest payments. In fact, BLUE CITY is receiving almost half ofl
its operating capital from bonding - the other half in taxes. If the taxes
were raised as this newspaper advocated, we would not be spending the city's
tax money paying for the interest on bonds. It would not surprise this news-
paper if the Mayor advocated more bonding to pay for existing bonding!
Other statistics that might be of interest to the citizens of BLUE CITY
are: Total unemployment went up from 6,800 to 8,760 in proportion to an ap-
proximate increase in population (282,000 to 287,500). Furthermore, welfare
payments remained the samel No new jobs were created. This could be attributed
to a lack of new construction on the part of the Economic Decision Makers. Al-
though construction was attempted, the economic teams either did not have the
available resources needed, the level of municipal services was too low, or
the decision was written incorrectly. Please refer to the computer printout
(a blue X indicates the decisions that were rejected) .
The Public Works Commissioner has no available revenue in his Capital Ac-
count for utilities. This, in effect, precludes any new construction for
utility .service. Apparently, the Mayor has not seen fit to allocate his budget
accordingly.
The Transportation Commissioner failed in an attempt to build an additional
road for the Nord-East section of the city.
There are, however, several enlightening statistics for BLUE CITY. First,
the number of low income workers has dropped from 77,500 to 72,000. There has
been an increase of medium and high income groups in the city - an,increase of
6,000 and 5,000 people respectively. Also, the average dissatisfaction level
went, down from 112 to 108. Housing quality improved in grids 102-24, 25, and
26, owned by Economic Decision Makers "G", "A", "C" respectively. Good work!!
Also, Grid 100-32 improved, and is owned by Economic Team "A".
There is overcrowding in virtually the entire city. Economic Team "D" was
the only team that improved their overcrowding in Grid 100-30. Total welfare
payments went up to over $1.3 million. BLUE CITY is on the brink of financial
crisis. New construction is needed for new jobs which, in turn, brings in ad-
ditional tax revenue. Taxes must be raised in lieu of new bonding, and the
Mayor must establish a rapport with the business community.
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APPENDIX C
BLUE CITY GAZETTE
Vo1' x Tuesday, March 2, 1971 No. 3
MAYOR MCCARTY RECOMMENDS GOVERNMENT DOMINATION
OF BUSINESS COMMUNITY
EDITORIAL
In a town meeting last week, Mayor McCarty proposed "nationalized govern-
ment" for BLUE CITY. This would, in effect, bring the business community under
the auspices of the Mayor for the purpose of receiving greater financial aid
for city activities. Thus, it could also be assumed that business activity
and associated priorities would be relegated by the Mayer. The Mayor, when
questioned by business community members, commented that Welfare was the number
one priority.
The staff of the BLUE CITY GAZETTE stands unanimous in its opposition to
the Mayor's proposal. The staff feels the Mayor's proposal is arbitrary and
does not reflect a genuine interest for cooperative activity between business
and government. The social sector has not taken a firm stand and the GAZETTE
urges the social teams to reject the Mayor's proposal. '
BLUE CITY shows signs of great improvement from the depression of the last
three years. In its fourth year, total unemployment went down over 50%. With
8,760 people out of jobs last year, this year's unemployment is 3,400. The
following is a breakdown with respect to economic class:
Low Income - 8,400 to 3,400
Middle Income - remained the same
High Income - 360 to zero.
Much of the decrease in unemployment can be attributed to the increased building
activity of the business community. The number of new jobs increased from zero
to 360. Increased job activity is also reflected in the increased percentage
earnings for citizens of the low and high economic classes. Those that earned
zero to $5,000 increased from 35% to 38%. Those that earned $10,000 and over
increased in number from 17% to 19%. The percentage earnings of the middle
class decreased in number from 46% to 42%. The "percentage earning" statistic
seemingly defeats the Mayor's espoused philosophy of "the good life" for all
residents and an equalization of earnings between classes.
The middle class is by far the most numerous with 113,000 people. The low
class has 72,500 people, and there are 109,000 people in the upper economic
class with a total population of 294,5000. This is a total increase of 7,000
increased welfare payments and the rising taxes of BLUE CITY. Welfare payments
have increased from $1,000 per person to $2,500 per person. The number of per-
sons on welfare, however, has decreased from 8,760 to 3,400 people. The decrease
in the number of persons on welfare can be largely attributed to the increased
number of new jobs. The tax rate for property tax land improvement was in-
creased by the Mayor from 2% to 7% - an increase of 5%!!.'
239
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Tuesday, March 2, 1971
Granted, BLUE CITY has needed additional tax revenue. However, a tax in-
crease on "property land improvement" is not the kind of tax increase the
residents of BLUE CITY need for several reasons: First, a tax on land improve-
ment discourages residents from improving their quality of housing. The Mayor
has elected to increase your tax when you increase your housing maintenance
and improvement. Second, the Nord-East section of the city has poor housing
quality. The Mayor's policy of an increased tax on land improvement dis-
courages up-grading the housing in this area.
BLUE CITY'S total revenue has increased considerably because of three
reasons: an increase in taxes, an increase in the number of tax-paying resi-
dents, ;;.nd a decrease in bond payments. The Mayor should be congratulated on
deciding not to float new bonds. The city's bond payments decreased $18,020,000
from last year.
Generally speaking, the conditions in BLUE CITY improved. The question
before the constituency, however, is the way in which the Mayor elects to im-
prove the conditions of BLUE CITY. The average dissatisfaction level went
down from 108 to 104. The number of new jobs has increased, and the number
of workers receiving welfare has-gone down.
LET's ALL KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!
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APPENDIX D
PEOPLE'S ADVOCATE Vol. I
1/26/71
SCHOOLS SHOULD PROGRESS UNDER NEW DECENTRALIZED ADMINIATRATION
In keeping with this administration's campaign pledges, we are proud to
announce the appointment of Ronald Bellfield as new BLUE CITY Commissioner of
Education. Mr. Bellfield finds his new job challenging, and will bring to the
office a high degree of competency, having served previously as Commissioner
of Schools in New York City.
We have in this decentralization of administrative responsibility new
specialized expertise for this critical field.
The policy of this journal will be to keep the public abreast of the
activities which government is taking in their behalf and with/theirparticipa-
tion.
The public officials of your city took the following actions in recent
weeks:
The Mayor: 1. Welfare payments were increased by $1,000 per year for
each unemployed worker. This begins to give even our
unemployed citizens the ability to participate in our
growth and standard of living.
2. A small employee's auto tax of 1% was added to pay for
welfare, transportation and utilities expansion.
Department of Transportation: (Commissioner G. Roadrummer)
1. A new bus line was established in the N.E. section to
enable the mobility needed for that area's residents to
take advantage of employment opportunities throughout
the city. Also, this will create new opportunities for -
the residents of the whole city to participate in the
civic affairs of the whole city.
Department of Planning, Zoning and Assessment: (Commissioner D. Snoopy)
1. Rezoned parcel 102/22 in the N.E. section of town to
recreational use for the establishment of a park. This
section was completely without parks and playgrounds be-
fore this action.
Additional tax burden for this action is not anticipated
due to pending federal funding to the extent of $50,000,
nearly the total cost of development.
241
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Department of Public Utilities and Schools: (Commissioner B. House)
1. Increased utilities in the R3 areas of the city to prevent
rent increases for those with fixed incomes. A bond issue
was floated to raise the output of the utility plant from
level 2 to level 3. This should supply adequate utilities
to the areas previously under-served.
2. Applied for a federal grant to provide additional teachers
and renewal of the school in the N.E. section.
FUTURE PLANS:
1. A town meeting will be held January 26, at 7:30 p.m. to
develop an honest assessment by citizens and government of
the problems we have and possible solutions.
The Suggested Agenda:
1. Need for new City Vocational School
(A committee of citizens have suggested the N.E.
section)
2. Incentives needed to get overall favorable business
climate established.
3. Highway improvements needed
4. Parks and recreational needs
5. General public school adequacy in BLUE CITY
6. Unemployment
242
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APPENDIX E
2nd Round
Administra-
tion's
Motto
THE PEOPLE'S ADVOCATE
Vol. II
February 9, 1971
At the first town meeting held on January 26, 1971, the
mayor denounced the BLUE CITY GAZETTE as being totally biased
and a good example of "yellow journalism". In addition, he
announced that the "paper" is controlled by outside interests
much to the disadvantage of his beloved citizens.
Those "dirty birds" from the business community who
attacked the mayor and administration because of their selfish
vested interests will not be tolerated.
BLUE CITY'S administration is for ALL PEOPLE.1!!.'
MAYOR: The mayor again showed his big heart for the people when he
took the following actions:
1. Set welfare payments at $2,500 per year. This indicates
a raise of $1,500 per year for each family without re-
sorting to additional taxes.
2. Subsidized Economic Decision Makers Mr. C. and Mr. E. to
give them the opportunity to construct low-cost housing.
3. Subsidized business to develop a manufacturing facility
to create new jobs for the unemployed.
PUBLIC WORKS
DEPARTMT;"1:
Mr. B. Mouse, brother of the revolution very modestly announced
the following "cool" moves on his part:
1. Contracted for a new $29 million public service facility
to improve municipal services to the ENTIRE city.
2. Redistricted municipal services areas to decrease the
overload existing upon the former 3 plants.
3. Provided increased utility services to those areas which
requested such action.
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£ PLANNING Mr* D* Sno°Py witn tne better interests of the city ever at
° j ^r-r^r, heart and the city's recreational needs as first priority
and ZONING: ^ , ^i_ £•,•>• • ^j
took the following progressive actions:
1. Using available department funds, bid on two large, at-
tractive park parcels.
2. Also, ever attentive to community needs, he rezoned two
areas crucial to the improvement of the N.E. sector (one
for low-cost housing; the other for heavy industry).
DEPARTMENT Miss G. Road Runner with her usual dedication for the better-
OF TRANS- ment of the city, made the following decisions in close con-
PORTATION: sultation with the city's constituents:
1. Rerouted a bus route to serve the increasing needs pre-
velant in the N.E. sector.
2. Added a new Type 2 road to service those citizens who
will live in the new low-cost housing complex constructed
by the progressive economic sector.
DEPARTMENT The Commissioner of Education, knowing full well how concerned
OF BLUE CITY is with the education of its youth has decided to
EDUCATION: discuss his recent fantastic actions with the citizens at
today's meeting.
BLUE CITY: A fair city with honest government working overtime to keep its
citizens1 ••«»«•
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APPENDIX F
URBAN STUDIES INSTITUTE
MANKATO STATE COLLEGE
June 22, 1971
BLUE CITY: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
OF
DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC STATISTICS
245
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INPUTS
ROUNDS
cr»
Total
Population
Low
Middle
iiigU
Population
per Resi-
dential
Sq - W ,
Developed
Land
(Sq.Mi.)
Total
Assessed
Value of
Lar.<:
Average
Dissatis-
faction
Level
Average
Educa-
tional
Level
Student-
Teacher
Ratio
1
275,500
?3,500
93,000
10 J, 000
41
166
0
60
14
2
282,000
77,500
102,000
102,500
.1,985
41
166
122
58
14
2.3
5.4
3.0
.5
2.3
0
0
112,0
-3.4
0
3
287,500
72,000
108,000
107,500
2,024
41
.169
108
58
14
I *
.9
-7.6
5.9
4.9
.9
0
1.8
-3.7
0
0
294,500
72,500
113,000
L09.000
2,073
42
169
104
58
14
^ ,
2.4
.6
4.6
1,4
2.4
0
0
-3.7
0
0
5
303,000
74,000
115,500
1.13,500
2,089
43
183
115
57
14
2.9
2.0
2.2
4.1
.8
2.4
8.2
10.5
-1.7
0
-------
6
348,500
82,000
132,000
J.34, 500
2.233
44
191
127
57
15
14
10.8
14.5
Lr>.6
6. .4
2.2
4.3
10.4
0
7.1
7
366,500
86,000
137,000
143,500
2.276
46
192
130
57
15
5.1
4.9
3.8
6.7
1,9
|
.A
*
.5
2.3
0
0
8
418,000
1 .11 ,000
14$, 500
161,500
2,383
•':?
!.94
164
55
16
14
29
6.2
42.3
4.9
o
i
1. . 0
26
0
0
Total %
51
51
47
56.7
23
.14
16.8
•
'
1
-9
-14
I
247
-------
INPUTS
ROUNDS OF PLAY
00
CITY
IHCOME
TAX
Prop. Tax
Land
Prop. Tax
Imp.
Res . Inc .
Tax
liap . Inc
Tax
Res. Auto
Tax
Erap.Auto
Tax
Goods
Sales
Tax
Service
bales
1
6,641,600
8,997,000
25,954,117
0
203,134
0
2,547,168
,
Tax 2,6.10,01?.
Out-
standing
Bend
Pa-'nueni:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
TOTAL
2
6,641,600
8,841,000
26,048,716
0
203,477
20,318
2,715,592
0
-1.7
.4
0
.2
6.6
t
1
3,: 121 ,.127 19.5
i
\
3
6,768,000
8,937,600
25,870,296
0
190,926
19,059
.9
9.9
-0.7
0
-6.5
-6.6
2,788, 821J 2.7
31,864,479
1
J i
7,240,000 i 7, 240 r 000
7,240,000
10, 78u,OQG
18,020,00
i
0
148.8
7,240,000
iOj.760,000
16,070,000
0
34.090,000
i
I
1
19.9
4
6,741,600
31,431,400
28,159,123
0
217,972
21,768
7,636.393
3,761,513
0 16,070,000
oi o
0
0
89.1
i
0
0
16,070,000
1
-0.4
251,7
8.6
0
14,2
14.2
173.8
-747.1
5
7,322,000
37,757,300
31,099,698
0
280,765
28,045
8,299,162
3,723,568
'i
120.0
0
0
0
-112.1
0
0
o
0
8.7
20.1
10.4
0
29.3
28.8
8.7
-1.0
i
!
0
0
r
/"•" •
0
1
-------
26
"T
7,615,600
40,208,000
36,152,357
3.8 i 7»630,400 8.5
6.4 i 43,500,800 7,,4
8.1 I 39,125,076 j S.I
i I
o i o! o
7,756,000
46,698,400
i", 719,610
334,961 J19.3 1 31^894.! -5.0
33,453
19,2
31,648
-5.0
33n227
T
11
0
7.9 J.0,4'5,170
18
: 4,346,725
11
, 476,607 I 3
0 0
Oj 0
o I o
116
249
-------
IMPUTS
B0URDS OF PLAY
ro
ui
o
School En-
rollment
Public
Private
iiumber of
Employed
Uorbsrs
LC--J
IvfJ jj,,;! n.
"
i^Urjii*
1
57,250
11>950
81,600
25,200
31.680
2
59,210
11,500
81,440
24,200
32,640
24,720 24 t 600
i
WoilvOKa ) 4 , 200
Low i 4,2CO
aid-lie | 0
V| € 1, A
3.4
-2,9
-0.2
-4.1
3.0
-9,5
j
6,800
6,300
0
o
3
57,620
14,970
80,400
20,400
36,560
-2.7
30.1
-1.3
-18.6
5.9
24,440 ( 3,4
i
60.9 3,760
60.9 8,400
0 0
0
% Earnings
Undiv: 3,000
5-10,000
Over 5.0,000
itambtr of
.28
A3
17
Naw Jobs 80
Low
Middle
High
Total
Workers
on
Welfare
Welfare
Payment/
Worker
G
0
0
4,200
1,500
36 -18.0
46 i 43.0
17
0
0
0
0
6,800
1,000
0
0
0
0
0
60.9
-50.0
360
35
46
17
0
0
0
0
8,760
1,000
25.8
22.5
4
58,100
16,380
87,920
2.5,600
36,160
26,160
3,400
3,400
0 0
360.0
0
.8
9 = 4
9.3
25.5
4.6
2.3
.
-157.6
-.157,6
C
0
-0.3 33 x2.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28.8
0
5
58,150
18,500
93,800
29,600
36,960
27,240
0
0
0
.09
13.0
6.7
15.6
2.2
4.1
0
0
0
Oj 0 !
i
•
34 -8.0
42 -16.0 ! 40! -20.0
19
130
34
49
47
3,400
2,500
1.9
130.0
-157.6
150.0
24
37
11
li
15
0
2,500
1
3.0
-251.3
-209.0
-345.0
-213.0
0
0
-------
25
6
62,510
25,820
107,320
32,800
42,240
32,280
0
0
0
0
38
27
80
33
24
23
, 0
2,500
7
39
14
10.8
14
18
0'
0
0
0
1 1
il
12
49
33
49
32
1
0
0
7
63,580
29,290
112,630
34,400
43,840
34,440
u
0
0
0
•
"5ri
~o
28
43
*"? *?
13
8
i
0
1,600
1.7
13.4
j
5
4.8
•t i
.>. i
6,6
-
-
0
o
0
f'\
'J
-- R
3.7
-4 f--
• •_•...'
4-
-65
i
i
i
0
i
-36
8
67,350
37,580
126,920
41,600
46,560
38,760
2,600
2?GOG
G
^\
tj
3C
28
66
^
22
12
0
1,600
:
6
28.3
12.6
21
6.2
12.5
t>
r.
V.'
U
c
2.8
0
60
* r-
69
50
0
0
otaj %
17
68
55
65
47.
56
33
T;"*
0
0
-3.2
64
0
6,2
251
-------
Chapter X
CITY MODEL:
THE MEMPHIS STATE EXPERIENCE
by
Robert Dean
Memphis State University
252
-------
CITY MODEL:
THE MEMPHIS STATE EXPERIENCE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Introduction 25 A
The Course 256
Dynamics 258
CONCLUSIONS 264
253
-------
CITY MODEL:
THE MEMPHIS STATE EXPERIENCE*
Introduction
During the spring semester of the 1970-1971 school year, a group of 16
graduate students from the Departments of Economics and Geography had both the
privilege and pleasure of "playing" the City Model. With the exception of this
writer, none of the students had ever participated in a simulation-gaming exer-
cise, nor had they ever been given much exposure to the input-output media of
computers (i.e., code sheets, punched cards, and computer printouts)! Despite
these obstacles, the students found the interaction with the City Model a most
rewarding experience and were eager to participate again in such a venture.
Indeed, it was the opinion of most of the students that additional sessions with
> ' . .
the City Model would be required if maximum benefits from the use of the Model
I
were to be achieved. Simply put, their argument was that the more innovative
uses of the Model can only occur after prolonged and extended play.
The decision to utilize the City Model as one of the principal teaching
' . ! .
tools in the joint seminar with the Geography Department on urban problems
i • . • . •
was by no means accidental. Having used Alan Feldt's Community Land Use Game
(CLUG) and Richard Duke's METROPOLIS in courses dealing with urban planning,
I was well aware of the student interest and excitement in playing the roles
of public and private decision makers in the urban arena. In the past, however,
my experience with the use of simulation-gaming as a teaching device had been
limited to undergraduate students. Moreover, I had never attempted a modeling
exercise with the complexity and level of sophistication associated with the
The modeling exercises could not have been carried out at Memphis State
without the support of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research. In particu-
lar, a great debt of gratitude is owed to Mr. David Gilles, a Research Assistant
in the Bureau, for his untiring efforts in overseeing the modeling exercises.
Without his contributions, the gaming sessions would not'have been possible.
254
-------
City Model. Therefore, I treated the use of the City Model as an experiment
for the instructor as well as the students!
Because of my own limited experience in handling a modeling effort with
the degree of complexity of the City Model, I decided to use a graduate seminar
as the testing ground for the gaming experiment. I assumed (perhaps errone-
ously) that graduate students would more readily grasp the technical aspects
of inter-acting with the City Model, and that they would be better able to
make more meaningful decisions within the time span of one semester. Graduate
students from both the Geography Department (the Geography Department offers a
heavy concentration of courses in urban geography and planning) and the Economics
•if
Department were invited to participate in the seminar. Because both the
Geography and Economics Departments had a number of graduate students with
full time jobs during the day, it was decided to hold the urban problems
seminar at night. In retrospect, the decision to make the seminar available
to the older, more mature graduate students was a good one. This particular
group of students (roughly half the class were in this category) brought first-
hand knowledge of the problems confronting the Memphis Metropolitan region.
Equally important, they had had some experience in dealing with these problems
locally and fortunately were able to transfer their work experiences in a
useful and meaningful manner to those students who had had little work experience
in the "real" world.
The course was officially designated as a Seminar in Current Economic
Problems (Economics 7190) and was offered one night a week. Traditionally,
the instructor or teacher of this seminar is given a great deal of freedom
*Insofar as I can determine, this was the first experience at Memphis
State in holding a joint course by departments in two different colleges.
(The Economics Department is in the College of Business Administration, and,
the Geography Department is in the College of Arts and Sciences.)
255
-------
and latitude in course structure, therefore it seemed to be the course best
suited for experimentation with the City Model. The students agreed to meet
from 6:30 to 10:30 p.m. on Wednesday evenings, even though the required number
of hours of class meetings would only have called for sessions from 6:30 to
9:30 p.m. It is also worth noting that the sessions were not held in the
traditional classroom setting. Instead, a group of rooms and offices adjoining
the University's Regional Economics Library and the Library itself were used
for the gaming sessions. The more spacious conditions were instrumental in
achieving a more realistic environment for role playing in the City Model.
The Course
The seminar in urban problems had three major objectives. The primary
objective of the course was to improve the student's understanding of the
nature and scope of such urban problems as chronic unemployment, poverty,
housing shortages, crime and violence, inadequate health delivery systems,
and so forth. Another important objective was to get the student to visualize
the City's problems in "hollistic" or "systemic" terms. In other words, the
aim was to encourage students to view the activities of the City as being
closely related and interdependent (e.g., an unemployment problem will exacer-
bate a health problem, the loss of industry and jobs in the private sector will
reduce the number and quality of services offered in the public sector through
reduced tax revenues, etc.). A third objective was to encourage the student to
use an interdisciplinary perspective when dealing with urban problems, that
si
is, to look at the problem not only from the viewpoint of an economist, but
also from the perspective of a geographer, planner, political scientist, etc.
The City Model was essentially used to help achieve all of these objec-
tives. Based on my previous experiences with CLUG and METROPOLIS, I found
256
-------
that the actual experience of dealing with a land-use problem (e.g., zoning)
makes the student more sensitive to the broader concept of land use planning.
Thus, it was felt that the problems of housing, unemployment, education,
health, etc., would be more readily understood by the students if they were
able to work on these problems at the same time they were dealing with them
within the traditional classroom and academic framework.. It was also felt
that a simulation-game of the City Model type would enhance the student's
ability to view the City as a system of interconnected activities and insti-
tutions. Indeed, many of the outputs of this particular gaming model (e.g.,
land use maps, economic indicator tables, etc.) are designed in such a fashion
that the City can be viewed more easily as a single entity than as several
separate and disparate parts.
Through proper role-placement of students with different discipline
backgrounds, it was also hoped that the modeling effort would help the students
to broaden their perspective to include the thoughts and ideas of other dis-
ciplines when dealing with a particular problem. In this case, the advantage
of the City Model is that it encourages interaction between the various role
players, thus making it possible for a certain amount of "knowledge transfer"
to take place between disciplines.
The seminar in urban problems was essentially developed along three lines,
First, the students were asked to read a number of books dealing with urban
issues and problems. These materials were then discussed throughout the
semester and in conjunction with the modeling effort. Second, the students
were assigned roles in the City Model and were expected to devote a major
portion of their weekly class meetings to the gaming experiment. Third, each
student was asked to prepare a research paper dealing with a particular local
257
-------
urban problem. Each student was also asked to present his paper at one of the
class meetings so that all of the students would develop a certain sensitivity
towards local issues and problems at the same time they were grappling with
similar types of problems in the City Model.
Dynamics
Insofar as the utilization of the City Model is concerned, certain
steps were taken to minimize the students' problems in mastering the mechanics
of making decisions. One full classroom session was devoted to the discussion
of the major decision-roles in the City Model as well as the many printouts and
reports that result from each role player's decision inputs. During the first
session, each student was assigned a particular role (i.e., social decision maker,
economic decision maker, mayor, etc.) and asked to read that portion of the
City Model manual dealing with his role. Using the manual as a guide, each
<•
student was also asked to fill out a decision sheet for the next class meeting
and be prepared to answer questions concerning each type of decision that he(she)
could make. Each student was also asked to maintain a diary on his particular
decisions as well as keep a listing of any problems or criticisms he had of the
gaming experiment. The diary proved to be quite useful, since both the student
and instructor could review the decisions and the reasoning behind them over a
number of gaming sessions. The diaries clearly revealed that as the students
became more knowledgeable about their roles, they were able to make a greater
number of decisions within a shorter period of time. The decisions in later
rounds also appeared to be based on more information and a better understanding
of their possible effects on the economic parameters of the model.
Concerning the play itself, the economic decision makers can best be
described as rather conservative, cautious players. The aversion to risk-taking
was especially noticeable in the early rounds when the students were quite
258
-------
uncertain as to the outcome of particular decisions. Insofar as I can deter-
mine, none of the economic decision makers had a "game plan." Most of the
decisions in the early rounds were not made in a systematic fashion or developed
in a coordinated manner. In later rounds, however, many decisions were made as
a result of actions taken in earlier rounds. For example, an economic decision
maker would build some housing units for rental purposes and then find they
were underutilized. He (she) would then consider building commercial or manu-
facturing establishments close by in order to induce more people to live in the
underutilized housing units and build up a good supply of labor. Just as
likely, the procedure would be reversed, and the emphasis would be on building
housing units near a previously built manufacturing plant in order to maintain
an adequate supply of labor close to the plant.
Most of the economic decision makers made good profits on their business
operations, although losses on particular investments were not uncommon. It was
i ••
also evident that profit maximization was the primary motive for making decisions,
subject, of course, to the twin constraints of risk-taking and uncertainty.
The social decision makers did not have an opportunity to exercise their
voting power, therefore they spent much of their time trying to improve social
conditions in the City. A few boycotts on retail establishments were attempted,
but for the most part, their approach was to use "moral persuasion" on public
officials and economic decision makers to change their attitudes toward
problems such as poverty, poor housing, job discrimination, etc. The social
decision makers did succeed in getting the mayor to establish a housing task
force to investigate the poor housing conditions in the City. As we shall see
shortly, this particular task force was quite instrumental in getting "slum"
landlords to improve and upgrade their properties.
The public decision makers made a concerted effort to improve the welfare
of the City, although the indicators used to measure economic progress do not
259
-------
clearly reflect the intensity of this effort. During the early rounds, the
"game plan" was to obtain additional revenue to upgrade the school system and
municipal services, while at the same time bring about a redistribution of the
tax burden so that it would fall more heavily on the business community and
to a lesser extent on the work force. Lower income residents also received
a tax break through the reduction of sales taxes on goods and services while
the tax on auto owners was raised in the hopes that the use of public trans-
portation would increase.
A substantial public deficit in the early rounds, however, caused the
public decision makers to modify their target objectives until the deficit
was significantly reduced. By the sixth round, the deficit was under control,
and the earlier effort to improve the quality of municipal services and the
school system was renewed. During this round, a serious review was also made
of the City's more pressing problems. As a result of this review, it was
decided that more park and recreational land was needed for the City, and
money was appropriated to the planning and zoning department for this purpose.
Rising complaints from the social decision makers about the high tax rates on
lower income residents and their deplorable housing conditions prompted the
mayor to lower the residential income tax rate and the employee income tax
rate. In addition, the mayor appointed a committee to review the housing
conditions in the City and provide him with recommendations concerning the
proper resolution of this problem.
In the last round, an election was held, and the incumbent mayor lost
to one of the economic decision makers who was dissatisfied with the higher
taxes on business properties and the move towards a "socialist" form of
government. Unfortunately, the new mayor did not have time to carry out his
conservative policies since the gaming sessions had to be halted due to the
end of the school semester!
260
-------
A review of some of the economic and demographic growth trends reveals
a fairly successful performance for the City's economy. Figure 1 below
illustrates some of these trends. Chart 1-A and 1-B indicate that the popula-
tion increased 52 percent and employment 46 percent over the eight rounds of
play. Thus, the City appears to have grown at a fairly steady rate with popu-
lation at a little over 6 percent per annum and employment slightly less at
5 percent annually. The unemployment chart shows little or no unemployment
from round 3 through round 7 of play, thereby indicating a full employment
economy over most of the gaming sessions. Although unemployment was quite low
(except for round 8), Chart 1-C indicates that the proportion of workers earning
*.
less than $5,000 actually increased from 38 percent to 40 percent of the total
work force during the gaming sessions. This is somewhat alarming, since this
group of wage earners are largely unskilled and semi-skilled and are not capable
of being absorbed into more capital-intensive industries (with higher wage
rates) without considerable retraining and additional education.
Despite this apparent weakness in the structure of the work force, it
is evident that the social welfare of the community improved considerably
during the period of play. As Chart 1-E indicates, per capita income has risen
steadily during the gaming session. As of the end of the seventh round, per
capita income had reached $2,000, a 17 percent increase over the base year
figure. This improvement was extremely encouraging to the students, especially
those that played the role of social decision maker.
With regard to certain key economic indicators, then, the City appeared
to be better off at the end of the gaming sessions than at the start. It is
extremely difficult, however, to single out one particular factor that contribu-
''•» -
ted most to this improvement in economic well-being. Perhaps it was due to the
rather conservative manner in which the public and private decision makers made
decisions. Possibly it was due to the fact that the national economy was fairly
261
-------
Figure 1
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Persons
(000)
Chart 1-A
Population Growth
Round
Persons
(000)
Chart 1-B
Employment Growth
I 2. 5
Round
Percent
Unemployed
Chart 1-C
Unemployment Trend
Round
Chart 1-D
Percent
Total Work
Force
ID
Round
Chart 1-E
Per Capita
Income 2tt*
~1 ^Round
262
-------
strong during the gaming sessions and therefore gave added strength to the
local export sector. Regardless of the causes, the students were most
delighted to achieve the twin objectives of full employment and rising per
capita income—a most unlikely occurrence in the real world!
263
-------
CONCLUSIONS
It should be made perfectly clear to the reader that no attempt was made
to measure with precision the importance of the City Model as a learning tool.
Because others have traveled this road before and have not really had much
success in isolating the contributions of simulation gaming to the learning
process, I find it expedient to withhold any comments on the degree of use-
fulness of the City Model except to say that the modeling effort was an
extremely worthwhile experience in group interaction and certainly the high-
light of the seminar.
In reviewing the course in more realistic terms, it is fair to say
that we were moderately successful in meeting the three course objectives.
Based on the results of the research papers and the class discussions that
took place before and after the gaming sessions, it was clear that most of
the students had a better understanding of some of the gut issues facing our
cities at the end of the course than they did at the beginning. Although
I cannot support this contention with empirical evidence, it seemed to me that
the background readings, modeling exercises, and research papers are comple-
mentary learning activities, i.e., one reinforces the others. In this par-
ticular case, the background readings provided a basic frame of reference for
the role players in the modeling effort, while the modeling effort increased
the students' sensitivity and awareness towards certain urban concepts and
problems. In turn, a heightened awareness of a particular problem made it
easier to construct and implement a research design related to that problem.
The students also became more cognizant of the fact that the City is
a system of interdependent activities, although not with the degree of sensi-
tivity and understanding that I had hoped for. The lack of real success
here, however, cannot be blamed on any inherent weakness in the City Model,
264
-------
but rather on the failure of the instructor to create opportunities for the
students to use the Model's structural relationships to better advantage.
The problem boils down to this: most of the students were so involved
in their o\
-------
the fact that certain groups or economic classes (e.g., slum landlords) would
not benefit personally from these decisions. Because of the conflicts that
result when one vested interest group stands to lose at the expense of
another, most of the students gained a better appreciation for the problems
of developing a citywide policy on housing standards as well as the delicate
relationship between housing conditions and economic profit.
The attempt to create an interdisciplinary perspective in urban problem
solving , did not meet with much success. Unfortunately, the structure of the
City Model does not promote this type of learning process nor does it mitigate
against it. Once again, if the instructor is innovative, a number of ad hoc
task forces which are multi-disciplinary in makeup can be established to con-
sider urban problems within an interdisciplinary framework (e.g., a task force
on transportation policy would include a sociologist, political scientist,
geographer, planner, engineer, and an economist). However, most students—even
graduate students—have not progressed to the point where they can develop on
their.own comprehensive solutions to a problem as complex as urban transportation;
therefore, the task forces would need faculty support. In turn, this would
require a team teaching effort, which was logistically not possible for this
particular seminar.
. Summing up, even though the objectives of the course were not completely
achieved,, it would be unfair to say that the City Model was mainly responsible
for this lack of achievement. It should be kept in mind that this was an experiment
for both the instructor and the students, and that in subsequent sessions, more
effective and innovative uses of the ,City Model would result in higher achievement
levels. As I see it, however, the main problem with the use of City Model is the
inability to manipulate the key parameters of the Model (e.g., economic growth
rates, social conditions, production capacities, etc.), thereby making it more
flexible and susceptible to innovative approaches to urban problem-solving.
266
-------
In order to create this type of learning environment, the students" and'the
instructor must know more about the inner workings of the Model itself. In
turn, this calls for the computer programs that form the basis of the' City
Model to be housed at the college or university carrying out the modeling- •
experiment. The location of the City Model at each participating university
would also increase the frequency of interaction with the City Model.,; More-
over, the laborious process of mailing; decisions to Washington, D1. C., and
then waiting a week or more for the results of these decisions tends to have
a dampening effect on the students' interest and attitude7towards the modeling
exercise. Inde'ed, the most common complaint heard during the, modeling experi-
ment was Why Can't We Get the Results of Our Decisions Tomorrow?1 Although
this is probably a universal complaint and not easily solved without terminal
devices and "real time" or "shared time" computer processing capabilities,
the problem of "output" delay would bfe less severe if handled locally.
There is also a need to feed local demographic and economic statistics
into the City Model so that students" can actually work on problems--that 'are
both important and extremely familiar to them. This can best be done' by
transferring the City Model to the local university or college carrying out
'k
the modeling experiment. ' ;•
The other criticisms that we have of the City Model are minor- in nature
and mostly have to do with the mechanics of "playing the game1. "•• -The majority*
of the students felt that the player's manual was overly complex, and that the
sections dealing with individual roles should also include decision input
formats, the procedure for making decisions, and those computer printouts most
important to a particular role (decision maker). Another frequently heard
*At Memphis State, we would like to load 1970 Memphis block and tract
data on population and housing into the City Model, develop local -population
and land use growth patterns, and in general operate the Model as a replicate
of the local development process. ' ' ',>
267
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complaint was the inability to go to one source or computer printout sheet
for needed data. Although this is not possible to achieve under the present
reporting system, some additional consideration should be given to the data
needs of each role player and whether or not more realistic data combinations
can be developed. For example, it would be extremely useful for the player
operating the bus company to have the geographical locations of the labor
force and the work sites combined one one printout sheet. There was also a
strong feeling among the students that the social decision makers were quite
limited in the number and types of decisions they could make, and that this
particular role should be either expanded greatly or dropped completely in
favor of new roles that emphasize the activities of agencies dealing with
health and welfare problems.
As indicated above, however, these criticisms do not materially detract
from the basic strengths of the City Model. Indeed, our interest in City Model
is very high, and we are anxiously looking forward to continued interaction
with the Model during the next school year.
268
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Chapter XI
CONCLUSION
City Model was designed to be a non-scoring game. This
conceptualization of the purpose of the model meant that a com-
parison of the outputs of the model was not really possible,
except in a superficial fashion because each of the users was
expected to decide his own optimal strategy for the "best" city.
However, to partially satisfy the very natural urge to
compare the model runs anyway, Figure 5 was prepared. The
reader is invited to do his own analysis in terms of the most
s
desirable city.
From the terms Q£ the model structure, it is interesting
to note not the differences, but the tendency to converge —
the similarities in the macro-statistics despite minor al-
ternatives in individual strategies. tost notable are the
population and income distribution figures.
269
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I Population
Low Income
Middle Income
High Income
Total Population
II Land Use
Developed Land
(sq mi)
Density Per Sq Mi
Total Assessed
Value Land
Total Assessed
Value Develop.
Residential Vacancy
Rate
III Income
N)
Figure 5
Round 8 Data
Start
73^500
9,9'>Qt>0
103,000
2.75,500
American
117,5-00.
145,51)0;
165,000
428,000
Dartmouth
116,500
166,000
166,000
448,500
Georgetown
116,500
173,000
173,000
462,500
(Round 7)
Mankato Memphis
111,000
145,500
161,500
418,000
105,000
127,000
142,500
374,500
41
4.40
166,000,000
51
684
273,000,000
450,000,000 852,000,000
6%
6%
Sales to National
Economy
J Heavy Industry
Light Industry
National Services
Balance of Trade
Total Employed
% Unemployed
Welfare Recipients
Income Distribution
(Under $5000/$5-
10,000/Over $10,000)
IV Finance
Taxes Per Capita
Bond Payment Per
Capita
Total Annual Bond
Payment
469,908,000
203,032,500
207,900,000
532,950,000
473,800,000
572,000,00:0
(17,081,250) 478,629,825
81,600
4.90
4,200
38/43/17
184.34
46.20
133,160
0
0
36/34/28
230.09
127.59
12,727,656 54,610,000
50
717
279,000,000
52
47
46
740 668 599
259,000,000 194,000,000 177,000,000
950,000,000 1,149,000,000 667,000,000 527,000,000
_2% 0 -4% -5%
501,748,200
539,302,850
223,080,000
175,544,446
139,560
0
0
37/35/28
203.15
16.68
7,480,000
723,455,400
565,835,650
457,600,000
647,811,623
131,480
0
0
35/32/31
258.95
6.90
620,160,000
438,265,000
205,920,000
356,791,589
126,920
2.16
2,800
36/35/28
494,000,000
304,980,000
298,900,800
268,117,932
116,840
0
0
35/37/26
271.37
107.61
372.89
10.49
3,190,000 44,980,000 3,930,000
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Acknowledgments
The concept of a social science laboratory was another
of those "buzz" words which appear to mean everything and at
the same time nothing. When the group of us at Envirometrics be-
gan to advocate such an idea for universities and colleges/ it
was immediately accepted in a fuzzy sort of way.
For two years we worked on a computer-based model which
could be used both for research and.training purposes. When
we thought we had accomplished this end we approached the
National Science Foundation for a research grant.
Upon approval, the grant was used to test the concept of
a general social science lab by having several disciplines use
the same model to teach their extant courses.
This report is the result of that experiment. The story and
results are told directly by each professor, except for some
overall comments I made myself.
The usefulness of this lab is for each reader to decide.
Our thanks go to those professorsx-wiTD~~te^ted the laboratory
concept and who are now able to lielp guidjS the way for others.
?eter House
President
Envirometrics, Inc. 1971
aU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1972 434-485/212 1-3
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