WELCOME
   The Fourth Annual U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Conference on Statistics is sponsored by the Statistical Policy
Advisory Committee (SPAC) and funded by the Statistical Policy
Branch, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. The Conference is
held solely for the benefit and participation of EPA personnel.
Programming and arrangements for the Conference have been
provided by the SPAC Conference Planning Committee, chaired by
John Warren. Listed below are the members of the Conference
Planning Committee for the 1988 EPA Conference on Statistics:

Gerald Akland, EMSL-RTP       Mark Goldstein, Region III
R. Clifton Bailey, OW            William Hunt, OAQPS-RTP
Joseph Carra, OSWER          Henry Kahn, OW
Jim Craig, OSWER              Kathleen Knox, OPTS
John Creason, HERL-RTP       Mel Kollander, OPPE
Jim Daley,  OPPE               Elizabeth Margosches, OPTS
Dennis Ann Daniel, WIC          Barry Nussbaum, OAR
George Flatman, EMSL-LV      John Warren, OPPE

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                            TABLE OF CONTENTS


                                                                      Page

CONFERENCE  AGENDA                                                    1

CONFERENCE  ATTENDEES                                                 1°

ABSTRACTS

   Communications Panel — Movln'  On:  "Was it more  fun as a
      manager or statistician"  — William Hunt and Barry  Nussbaum       19

   The  "Cheap" Statistician: Where Is  S/He?  — Henry Kahn              21

   Data Quality Objectives  (DQOs): New OMB  Requirements —
      John Warren                                                       22
      "Federal Register.  OMB Guidelines for Federal Statistical
      Activities, Notice"                                                 22a

   Biological/Human  Sampling
   "Pharmacokinetic  Modeling Using  SAAM — A Tool for
      Simulation and Model Fitting" — Bernard Most                     23
   "Considerations in Measuring Biologicals in Human Populations" --
      Cheryl Siegel  Scott                                                24
   "Biomarkers:  Promise and Practice"  -- John  Fowle  III                 25

   Graphics
   "Expert Systems  to Assist in Decisions Concerning Land
      Disposal of Hazardous Wastes" —  Daniel G.  Greathouse             26

   Bioassay and Toxicity Measurements
   "Sources of Variability  in Laboratory  Animal
      Carcinogenicity Studies"  — Joseph K.  Baseman                      27

   The  Group Depth (Focus Group) Interview
   "The Group Depth Interview:  An Unstructured  Approach
      for Collecting In-Depth Information on Attitudes
      and Motivations" --  Alfred E. Goldman                             28

   Human Exposure  Monitoring
   "New Directions of Exposure Monitoring" — John D. Spengler           29

   Guide  to EPA Information Center Services for Statisticians
   "Guide to EPA Information Center Services for Statisticians" —
      Denny Daniel                                                       30
   "In-House  Graphics" — Nancy Sneath                                 31

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   Spatial  Statistics
   "Geostatistical Software:  Practical  Applications" --
      Evan J. Englund  and George T. Flatman                             32

   Poster Session
   "Forest  Effects of Acid Deposition:  An Epidemiological
      Approach  to Data Representation Graphics and Exploratory
      Data  Integration  of  Ecological  Information" -- Ruth H. Allen.
      J.  Jacob Wind,  and Ronald W. Matheny                              33
   "Appropriate LC50 Statistics for Effluent Toxicity Analysis" --
      M. Bastian, P. Koska, T. Vinson,  and C. Young (Presenter:
      James E. Stiebing)                                                  34
   "Regional Surface Water Quality Characteristics  of Nebraska" —
      Norman H.  Crisp  (Presenter:  Thomas T. Holloway)                   36
   "Guide to EPA Information Center Services for Statisticians" --
      Denny Daniel                                                       37
   "Chlorinated  Paraffins:   A Report  on the Findings from
      Two  Field  Studies at Sugar Creek,  Ohio, and Tinkers
      Creek, Ohio" —  Susan Dillman                                      38
   "Geostatistical Software Demonstration" -- Evan J. Englund            40
   "Household Solvent Products:  A National Usage Survey"  --
      Mary  Frankenberry,  Patrick Kennedy.  Cindy  Stroup,
      Donna Eisenhower, Paul  Flyer,  and  John Rogers                     41
   "Tools for  Presenting Spacial  and Temporal Patterns
      of Environmental Monitoring  and Effects Data" --
      L.  Thomas  Heiderscheit,  Wilson B. Riggan,  and John  Creason         42
   "Orientation to Quality Assurance Management"  -- Kevin Hull and
      Susan A. Santo                                                     43
   "Sampling Strategy for  Network  Design" -- Jerry Jaikanen,
      Donald  E. Myers,  and George T.  Flatman                             44
   "Statistical Evaluation  of Water Quality Trends"  — Reta Roe           45
   "In-House  Graphics" -- Nancy Sneath                                  48
   "Control  Chart Strategy" — Thomas H. Starks and George T. Flatman   49

   Practical Considerations for Agency Surveys
   "National Survey of  Pesticides in  Drinking Water Wells" —
      James Boland                                                       50
   "Hazardous Waste Surveys:  Problems in Development  and
      Implementation" —  Jim  Craig                                       51

   Guest Presentation
   "Statistics versus  Statistics"  -- Leo Breiman                           52

Royce Hotel Map                                                          53

Williamsburg Dining                                                       54

NOTES
                                      11

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            AGENDA
             FOR THE
        FOURTH ANNUAL

EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
          March 15-18, 1988
            Royce Hotel
         Willlamsburg, Virginia

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                                   AGENDA

               FOURTH ANNUAL  EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS

                              March 15-18,  1988
                             TUESDAY. MARCH .15

3:30 - 5:30pm       Registration and  Check-in
                    (Westminster Ballroom. Foyer)


6:00 - 7:00pm       OPENING SESSION
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section  B)

          Introduction:  N. Phillip Ross, Chief, Statistical  Policy Branch.  Office
          of Policy, Planning, and  Evaluation

          Welcoming Remarks:  Robert H. Wayland, III,  Deputy Assistant
          Administrator, Office  of  Policy,  Planning, and Evaluation

          Overview of Conference:  John Warren, Chair, Conference  Planning
          Committee, Office of Policy, Planning,  and Evaluation

          Conference Information:  Marcla Gardner,  SRA Technologies,  Inc.


7:00 - 8:00pm       Opening Reception
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section  A)
                            WEDNESDAY. MARCH H

8:00 - 8:30am       Continental  Coffee
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section A)
•  Please  Note:  Sessions  will begin and end PROMPTLY at the specified time.

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                                              AGENDA FOR THE FOURTH  ANNUAL
                                               EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                             March  15-18.  1988


8:30 - 9:45am       COMMUNICATIONS PANEL — MOVIN1  ON:
                    "Was it more fun as a manager or statistician?"
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section B)

          Session Co-chairs:
          William Hunt,  Chief, Monitoring and Reports Branch, Office of Air
          Quality Planning  and Standards,  Research Triangle Park, and
          Barry Nussbaum.  Chief, Operations and Compliance Policy Branch,
          Office  of Air and Radiation

          Panel:
          Gerald Akland, Director, Monitoring and Assessment Division,  Environ-
          mental Monitoring Systems Division, Research Triangle Park,
          Joseph Carra,  Director, Waste Management Division.  Office  of  Solid
          Waste,
          William Hunt,  Chief. Monitoring and Reports Branch, Office of Air
          Quality Planning  and Standards,  Research Triangle Park,
          Henry  Kahn, Chief,  Statistics  Section, Office of Water Regulations and
          Standards,  and
          Barry Nussbaum,  Chief, Operations and Compliance Policy Branch.
          Office  of Air and Radiation
9:45 - 10:00am      Break
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section A)
10:00 - ll:30am     COMMUNICATIONS PANEL DISCUSSION SESSION
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section B)
ll:30am -  l:15pm   Lunch Break
12:30 - l:15pm      Poster Session  -  Participant Meeting
                    (Warwick Room)
1:15  - 2:45pm       THE  "CHEAP" STATISTICIAN:  Where Is S/He?
                    (Westminster  Ballroom, Section B)

          Session  Chair:  Henry Kahn.  Chief. Statistics Section, Office  of Water
          Regulations and Standards

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                                              AGENDA FOR THE FOURTH  ANNUAL
                                               EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                             March  15-18,  1988


                    THE "CHEAP" STATISTICIAN (continued)

          Panel:
          Thomas Curran,  Statistician, Office  of Air Quality Planning and
          Standards,  Research Triangle  Park,
          Barnes Johnson, Statistician,  Statistical Policy Branch,  Office of
          Policy, Planning, and Evaluation,
          Thomas Kelly, Director, Office of Standards  and Regulations, Office of
          Policy, Planning, and Evaluation,  and
          Thomas O'Farrell,  Acting  Director, Industrial Technology Division,
          Office  of Water  Regulations and Standards,  Office of Water


2:45 - 3:00pm       Break
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section A)


3:00 - 4:15pm       DATA QUALITY OBJECTIVES (DQO's): NEW OMB
                    REQUIREMENTS
                    (Westminster Ballroom, Section B)

          Session Chair:   John Warren,  Statistical Policy Branch,  Office of
          Policy, Planning, and Evaluation

          Panel:
          Oscar Morales, Information Policy  Branch,  Office  of Policy, Planning,
          and Evaluation,
          Dean Neptune, Office of Acid Deposition, Environmental  Monitoring,
          and Quality Assurance, Office of Research  and Development, and
          John Warren,  Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy,  Planning,  and
          Evaluation
4:30 - 6:30pm       Walking Tour  of Williamsburg (Optional  - Reservations
                    required & limited number of places available)
                             THURSDAY.  MARCH 17
8:00 - 8:30am       Continental Coffee
                    (Berkley Room)

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                                              AGENDA FOR THE FOURTH  ANNUAL
                                               EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                             March  15-18.  1988
8:30 - 9:45am       MINISESSION SERIES I
               BIOLOGICAL/HUMAN SAMPLING
               (Williamsburg Parlor)

          Session Co-chairs:
          John Creason, Health Effects  Research Laboratory. Research Triangle
          Park,  Office of Research and  Development,  and
          Kathleen Knox. Benefits and Use Division,  Office of Pesticide Programs

          Pharmacoklnetic Modeling Using SAAM - A  Tool for Simulation and
          Model Fitting
          Presenter:  Bernard Most, Northrup Services.  Inc.

          Considerations  in Measuring Blologicals In  Human Populations
          Presenter:  Cheryl Siegel Scott, Exposure Evaluation Division,  Office
          of Toxic Substances

          Blomarkers:  Promise and Practice
          Presenter:  John R. Fowle III, Office  of Health  Research, Office of
          Research and Development
               GRAPHICS
               (Jamestown Parlor)

          Session  Chair:  Mark Goldstein, Information Resources  Branch, Region
          III

          Expert Systems to Assist In  Decisions Concerning Land Disposal of
          Hazardous Waste
          Presenter:  Dan Greathouse,  Hazardous Waste Engineering Research
          Laboratory, Cincinnati, Office of Research and Development
               BIOASSAY AND  TOXICITY MEASUREMENTS
               (Yorktown Parlor)

          Session  Chair:  Elizabeth  Margosches,  Exposure Evaluation Division,
          Office of Toxic Substances

          Sources  of Variability In Laboratory Animal Carcinogenlcity Studies
          Presenter:  Joseph Haseman, National  Institute for  Environmental and
          Health Sciences

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                                             AGENDA  FOR THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                               EPA  CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                             March 15-18, 1988
9:45 - 10:00am      Break
                    (Berkley  Room)
10:00 - ll:15am     MINISESSION SERIES II
               THE  GROUP DEPTH (FOCUS GROUP) INTERVIEW
               (Yorktown Parlor)

          Session  Chair:  Mel Hollander, Statistical Policy Branch. Office of
          Policy, Planning, and  Evaluation

          The Group Depth  Interview:  An Unstructured Approach for Collecting
          In-Depth  Survey Information on Attitudes and Motivations
          Presenter:  Alfred Goldman, Booz Allen and Hamilton
               HUMAN EXPOSURE MONITORING
               (Williamsburg Parlor)

          Session  Chair:  Gerald Akland, Director,  Monitoring and Assessment
          Division, Environmental Monitoring  Systems Laboratory,  Research
          Triangle  Park, Office  of Research and  Development

          New Directions  of Exposure  Monitoring
          Presenter:  John D. Spengler,  Harvard  School  of Public Health
               GUIDE TO EPA INFORMATION CENTER SERVICES FOR
               STATISTICIANS
               (Empire  Ballroom, Parlor B)

          Session Co-chairs:
          Denny Daniel, Director,  Washington Information Center, and
          Mark Goldstein, Information  Resources  Branch, Region  III

          Guide to  EPA Information Center Services for Statisticians
          Presenter:  Denny  Daniel. Director, Washington Information  Center

          In-House Graphics
          Presenter:  Nancy  Sneath, Washington  Information Center


ll:30am - l:30pm    Group Luncheon (For information check the  Registration
                    Table)

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                                             AGENDA FOR THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                               EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                             March 15-18, 1988
1:30  - 2:45pm       MINISESSION SERIES III
               BIOLOGICAL/HUMAN SAMPLING
               (Williamsburg Parlor)

          Session  Co-chairs:
          John Creason, Health Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle
          Park,  Office of Research and Development, and
          Kathleen Knox, Benefits  and Use Division, Office of  Pesticide  Programs

          Pharmacokinetic Modeling Using SAAM - A Tool  for Simulation and
          Model Fitting
          Presenter:  Bernard Most, Northrup Services,  Inc.

          Considerations  in Measuring Biologicals in Human Populations
          Presenter:  Cheryl Slegel Scott, Exposure Evaluation Division, Office
          of Toxic  Substances

          Biomarkers:  Promise and Practice
          Presenter:  John R. Fowle III, Office  of Health Research, Office of
          Research and Development
               SPATIAL STATISTICS
               (Jamestown Parlor)

          Session Co-chairs:
          George Flatman,  Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory,  Las
          Vegas, Office of Research and Development,  and
          Mark Goldstein, Information Resources Branch, Region III

          Geostatistlcal Software:  Practical Applications
          Presenter:  Evan  Englund,  Environmental Monitoring Systems
          Laboratory, Las Vegas, Office of  Research and Development

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                                             AGENDA  FOR THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                               EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                             March 15-18, 1988
               THE  GROUP DEPTH (FOCUS GROUP) INTERVIEW
               (Yorktown Parlor)

          Session Chair:  Mel Hollander,  Statistical Policy Branch, Office  of
          Policy, Planning, and  Evaluation

          The Group Depth  Interview:  An Unstructured Approach for  Collecting
          In-Depth  Survey Information on Attitudes and Motivations
          Presenter:  Alfred Goldman. Booz Allen and Hamilton
2:45 - 3:00pm       'Break
                    (Williamsburg Ballroom, Lobby Area)
3:00 - 4:15pm       MINISESSION SERIES IV
               GUIDE TO EPA INFORMATION CENTER SERVICES FOR
               STATISTICIANS
               (Empire  Ballroom, Parlor B)

          Session  Co-chairs:  Denny  Daniel, Director, Washington Information
          Center,  and Mark Goldstein, Information  Resources  Branch, Region III

          Guide to EPA Information Center Services for Statisticians
          Presenter:  Denny Daniel, Director, Washington Information  Center

          In-House Graphics
          Presenter:  Nancy Sneath, Washington  Information Center
               SPATIAL STATISTICS
               (Jamestown Parlor)

          Session Co-chairs:  George Flatman, Environmental Monitoring Systems
          Laboratory, Las Vegas. Office  of Research and  Development,  and Mark
          Goldstein, Information Resources Branch, Region III
          Refreshments will also  be available in the lobby area of the Empire
          Ballroom.

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                                             AGENDA FOR THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                               EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                             March 15-18, 1988
               SPATIAL STATISTICS (continued)

          Geostatistical Software:  Practical Applications
          Presenter:  Evan Englund, Environmental Monitoring Systems
          Laboratory, Las Vegas,  Office of Research and Development


4:30 - 6:30pm       POSTER SESSION
                    (Warwick Room and Empire Ballroom, Parlor C)

          Session Chair:  R. Clifton Bailey, Statistics Section,  Office of Water
          Regulations and Standards


6:30 - 7:30pm       Guest Speaker Reception
                    (Empire Ballroom, Lobby Area)
                              FRIDAY. MARCH .18


8:00 - 8:30am       Continental  Coffee
                    (Empire Ballroom, Parlor A)


8:30 - 10:15am      PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR AGENCY  SURVEYS
                    (Empire Ballroom, Parlors A & B)

          Session  Co-chairs:
          Jim Daley,  Information and  Regulation Systems Division, Office of
          Policy, Planning,  and Evaluation,  and
          Jim Craig, Waste  Management Division,  Office of Solid Waste

          National Survey of Pesticides  in  Drinking Water  Wells
          Presenters:  James  Boland, Hazard  Evaluation Division, Office of
          Pesticide Programs

          Hazardous Waste  Surveys:  Problems in Development  and
          Implementation
          Presenter:  Jim Craig,  Waste Management  Division, Office of Solid
          Waste
10:15 - 10:45am     Break

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                                             AGENDA FOR  THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                               EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                             March 15-18, 1988
10:45am -  12:45pm  GUEST PRESENTATION, CONFERENCE SUMMARY, AND
                    ADJOURNMENT
                    (Westminster Ballroom)

          Introduction:  John Warren, Chair, Conference  Planning  Committee,
          Office of Policy, Planning,  and Evaluation

          Statistics  versus Statistics
          Guest Speaker:  Leo Breiman.  Professor of Statistics, University of
          California, Berkeley

          Presentation of Awards:  Leo  Breiman. Professor of Statistics, Univer-
          sity of California, Berkeley

          Conference Wrap-up:  N. Phillip Ross. Chief. Statistical  Policy Branch,
          Office of Policy, Planning,  and Evaluation,  and Marcia Gardner.  SRA
          Technologies, Inc.


l:00pm              BUSES  LEAVE

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ATTENDEE LIST

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                            ATTENDEES

          FOURTH ANNUAL EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
Gerald Akland. Director, Monitoring and  Assessment Division, Environmental
Monitoring Systems Laboratory (MD-56).  Research Triangle Park, NC  27711,
(919) 541-2346. (FTS) 629-2346.

Ri Clifton Bailey. Statistics Section, Office of Water Regulations and
Standards (WH-586), 401 M Street. S.W.,  Washington,  DC  20460, (202)  382-
5411, (FTS) 382-5411.

Jerome Blondell. Exposure  Assessment Branch, Office of Pesticide Programs
(TS-769C), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (703)  557-0336,
(FTS) 557-0336.

James Boland. Hazard Evaluation Division, Office  of Pesticide Programs (TS-
769C),  401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC  20460, (703) 557-1636,  (FTS)
557-1636.

Leo Breiman. Professor of Statistics. University  of California, Berkeley, CA
94720.

Paul Britton. Environmental Monitoring and Support Laboratory,  26  West
Martin Luther King Drive,  Cincinnati, OH  45268,  (513) 569-7325,  (FTS)
684-7325.

Martin W^ Brossman. Quality Assurance Officer,  Monitoring and  Data
Support Division, Office of Water Regulations  and Standards  (WH-553),  401
M Street,  S.W.,  Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-7040, (FTS) 382-7040.

James Brown. Office of Solid Waste (WH-565E), 401 M  Street, S.W.,
Washington, DC  20460. (202)  475-7240.  (FTS) 475-7240.

Byron Bunger. Office of Radiation  Programs (ANR-461), 401 M Street. S.W.,
Washington, DC  20460. (202)  475-9644,  (FTS) 475-9644.

Sharon Campfield. Health Effects Research  Laboratory  (MD-55A). Research
Triangle  Park, NC   27711.  (919) 541-3508, (FTS)  629-3508.

Joseph Carra. Waste Management Division, Office of Solid Waste  (WH-565)
401 M Street, S.W..  Washington.  DC  20460. (202)  475-7276,  (FTS)  475-7276.
                                10

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                                      ATTENDEES OF THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA  CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18, 1988


James  E.. Casey. Office of Standards and Regulations,  Office of Policy,
Planning,  and Evaluation (PM-223). 401 M Street,  S.W., Washington, DC
20460, (202) 475-8664, (FTS) 475-8664.

Jim Cogliano.  Cancer  Assessment Group. Office of Health  and Environmental
Assessment  (RD-689). 401  M Street, S.W., Washington. DC   20460, (202) 382-
2575. (FTS) 382-2575.

Margaret G^ Conomos. Exposure Evaluation Division. Office of Toxic
Substances (TS-798). 401 M  Street,  S.W., Washington,  DC   20460, (202) 382-
3958, (FTS) 382-3958.

Jim Craig. Waste  Management Division,  Office of Solid Waste (WH-565), 401
M Street,  S.W., Washington, DC  20460,  (202) 382-3410,  (FTS)  382-3410.

John Creason. Health Effects  Research  Laboratory  (MD-55), Research
Triangle Park, NC  27711,  (919) 541-2598,  (FTS) 629-2598.

Thomas Curran. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-14).
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711,  (919) 541-5467.  (FTS) 629-5467.

James  ML Daley. Information  and  Regulations Systems  Division,  Office  of
Standards and Regulations (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington,  DC
20460, (202) 382-2743, (FTS) 382-2743.

Dennis Ann  Daniel. Manager, Technical  Center, Washington Information
Center. 401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460. (202)  488-5955, (FTS)
488-5955.

John Davidson. Office of Policy  Analysis, Office  of Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M  Street,  S.W., Washington,  DC   20460, (202) 382-
5484, (FTS)  382-5484.

Linda DeLuise. Registrations  Division, Office of Pesticide Programs
(TS-757C). 401 M  Street, S.W., Washington. DC   20460, (703) 557-1900,
(FTS) 557-1900.

Susan  Dillman. Exposure  Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances
(TS-798),  401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC   20460,  (202) 382-5375, (FTS)
382-5375.

Richard G± Eilers.  Drinking Water Research Division. Water Engineering
Research  Laboratory. 26 West Martin Luther King Drive.  Cincinnati,  OH
45268, (513)  569-7809.  (FTS) 684-7809.

Evan .T Englund.  Environmental  Monitoring Systems Laboratory,  P.O. Box
93478. Las Vegas. NV  89193-3478,  (702) 798-2248,  (FTS) 545-2248.

                                11

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                                      ATTENDEES OF  THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18, 1988
 Gary F\ Evans.  Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory (MD-56),
 Research Triangle Park,  NC  27711, (919)  541-3124, (FTS) 629-3124.

 Robert B.  Faoro. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-14),
 Research Triangle Park,  NC  27711. (919)  541-5459, (FTS) 629-5459.

 Jerzy A_. Filar. Statistical Policy Branch,  Office of Policy, Planning,  and
 Evaluation (PM-223), 401  M Street, S.W., Washington,  DC  20460, (202) 382-
 2680, (FTS) 382-2680.

 George T\ Flatman. Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, P.O. Box
 93478. Las Vegas, NV  89193-3478, (702)  798-2628, (FTS) 545-2628.

 John R^ Fowle III, Office  of Health Research, Office of Research  and
 Development  (RD-683), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202)
 382-5895,  (FTS) 382-5895.

 Neil Frank. Office of Air Quality Planning and  Standards  (MD-14), Research
 Triangle  Park, NC   27711, (919) 541-5560. (FTS)  629-5560.

 Mary Frankenberry. Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substan-
 ces .(TS-798), 401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC   20460,  (202) 382-3890,
 (FTS) 382-3890.

 George Garland.  Chief, State Programs Branch, Office of Solid Waste
 (WH-563), 401 M Street,  S.W., Washington,  DC  20460, (202) 382-2210, (FTS)
 382-2210.

 Alfred EL Goldman. Booz  Allen and  Hamilton, 400  Market Street,  Phila-
 delphia, PA   19106,  (215)  627-8110.

 Mark tL Goldstein. Information  Resources Branch,  Region III  (3PM50). 841
 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA   19107.  (215) 597-3604, (FTS) 597-3604.

 Daniel G^ Greathouse. Hazardous Waste  Engineering Research Laboratory,  26
 West Martin Luther King  Drive, Cincinnati, OH  45268, (513) 569-7859,
 (FTS) 684-7859.

 Gary Forrest  Grindstaff.  Office of  Toxic Substances (TS-798). 401 M Street,
S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202)  382-3952, (FTS) 382-3952.

Thomas C.. Harris.  Benefits and Use Division,  Office of Pesticide  Programs
 (TS-768C),  401 M  Street,  S.W., Washington, DC  20460. (703) 557-1616,
 (FTS) 557-1616.
                                 12

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                                      ATTENDEES OF THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18. 1988
Joseph Haseman. National Institute for Environmental and  Health Sciences,
P.O. Box 12233, Research Triangle Park, NC   27709.  (919)  541-4996,  (FTS)
629-4996.

Lu Thomas  Heiderscheit.  Health Effects Research Laboratory (MD-55).
Research Triangle Park,  NC   27711,  (919) 541-2590,  (FTS)  629-2590.

Richard C^ Hertzberg. Environmental Criteria  and  Assessment Office. 26
West Martin Luther King Drive. Cincinnati. OH  45268, (513) 569-7582,
(FTS) 684-7582.

Matthew  V.. Hnatov.  Statistics Section.  Office of Water Regulations and
Standards (WH-586), 401 M  Street,  S.  W., Washington, DC   20460, (202) 382-
5412, (FTS) 382-5412.

Karen Hogan. Exposure  Evaluation Division,  Office of Toxic Substances (TS-
798),  401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460,  (202) 382-3895.  (FTS) 382-
3895.

John W. Holley.  Office of Mobile Sources (EN-397F),  401  M Street, S.W.,
Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-2635, (FTS) 382-2635.

Thomas  T..  Holloway. Chief.  Water Monitoring  Section,  Environmental
Support Division, Region VII, 25 Funston Road,  Kansas City, KS  66115,
(913) 236-3884, (FTS) 757-3884.

Howard Howell. Administrative Systems Division, Office of Information
Resources Management (PM-218),  401 M Street,  S.W.,  Washington, DC
20460, (202) 475-8287, (FTS) 475-8287.

Kimberly A^ Hummel. Environmental Services  Division, Region III (3ES11).
841 Chestnut Building, Philadelphia, PA 19107, (215) 597-3362.  (FTS) 597-
3362.

William F\ Hunt. Jr.. Chief,  Monitoring and Reports Branch.  Office of Air
Quality Planning  and Standards  (MD-14), Research Triangle Park, NC
27711, (919) 541-5559. (FTS) 629-5559.

Barnes Johnson. Statistical  Policy Branch, Office of Policy,  Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington.  DC  20460,  (202) 382-
2684, (FTS)  382-2684.

Henry D. Kahn. Chief. Statistics Section, Office  of Water  Regulations and
Standards (WH-586), 401 M  Street. S.W., Washington,  DC  20460, (202)  382-
5406, (FTS)  382-5406.
                                 13

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                                      ATTENDEES OF THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA  CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18. 1988
Thomas E^ Kelly.  Director,  Office of Standards and Regulations. Office of
Policy, Planning,  and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street,  S.W., Washington.
DC  20460. (202)  382-4001. (FTS) 382-4001.

Kathleen Knox. Benefits  and Use Division, Office of Pesticide  Programs
(TS-768C), 401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC  20460, (703) 557-1753,
(FTS) 557-1753.

Mel Kollander. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy,  Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street,  S.W., Washington,  DC  20460, (202) 382-
2734, (FTS)  382-2734.

Stephen Kroner.  Office of Water Regulations and Standards  (WH-553),  401 M
Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460. (202) 382-7051,  (FTS)  382-7501.

Herbert Lacayo. Jr..  Statistical Policy  Branch, Office of Policy. Planning,
and Evaluation (PM-223), 401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460,  (202)
382-2714, (FTS)  382-2714.

Richard Levy. Hazard Evaluation Division, Office of Pesticide  Programs (TS-
769C), 401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington,  DC  20460,  (703)  557-3715, (FTS)
557-3715.

Lloyd Lininger. Statistical  Policy Branch. Office of Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street,  S.W., Washington,  DC  20460, (202) 382-
2680, (FTS)  382-2680.

Arthur Lubin. Region V,  536 South Clark Street, Chicago.  IL  60605,  (312)
886-6226, (FTS)  886-6226.

Bruce Madariaga.  Office  of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-12),
Research Triangle Park.  NC  27711,  (919)  541-5290, (FTS) 629-5290.

Elizabeth  Margosches.  Exposure Evaluation Division. Office  of Toxic
Substances (TS-798), 401 M Street.  S.W., Washington.  DC  20460. (202) 382-
3511. (FTS)  382-3511.

Ronald W^ Matheny,  Office  of Research Program Management, Office of
Research and Development  (RD-674), 401 M Street,  S.W.,  Washington,  DC
20460, (202) 382-7466,  (FTS) 382-7466.

Craig JL. McCormack.  Office of Policy Analysis, Office  of Policy. Planning,
and  Evaluation (PM-220),  401  M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC   20460, (202)
382-5873, (FTS)  382-5873.
                                 14

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                                      ATTENDEES OF THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18, 1988


Robert E^ McGaughy. Office of  Health and Environmental Assessment, Office
of Research and Development (RD-689),  401 M Street, S.W..  Washington, DC
20460, (202) 382-5898, (FTS) 382-5898.

Karen  Milne. Exposure Evaluation Division. Office  of Toxic Substances (TS-
798), 401 M Street. S.W.,  Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-2263,  (FTS) 382-
2263.

Lisa E_. Moore.  Office of Research and Development (MD-235),  26 West
Martin Luther King Drive.  Cincinnati. OH  45268, (513)  569-7671. (FTS)
684-7671.

Oscar  Morales.  Information Policy Branch,  Office of Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M  Street,  S.W., Washington,  DC  20460, (202) 382-
2738,  (FTS) 382-2738.

Phillip R^ Morgan.  Pennsylvania Department of Environmental  Resources,
Fulton Bank Building, 3rd &  Locust  Streets. Harrisburg.  PA  17100, (717)
787-9641.

Bernard Most.  Northrup Services, Inc., P.O. Box 12313, Research Triangle
Park, NC  27709, Health Effects  Research  Laboratory (MD-55),  Research
Triangle  Park.  NC   27711.  (919)  541-2390, (FTS) 629-2390.

Donald E.. Myers. Department of Mathematics,  University of Arizona,
Tucson. AZ  85721. (602) 621-6859.

Cornelius J. Nelson.  Hazard Evaluation  Division. Office of Pesticide
Programs (TS-769C), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington. DC  20460, (703) 557-
7398. (FTS) 557-7398.

William Nelson. Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory (MD-56).
Research Triangle  Park, NC   27711,  (919)  541-3184. (FTS)  629-3184.

Dean Neptune.  Office of Acid Deposition,  Environmental  Monitoring, and
Quality Assurance, Office of Research and Development (RD-680), 401  M
Street, S.W.. Washington, DC  20460, (202) 475-9464, (FTS) 475-9464.

Barry Nussbaum. Field Operations and Support Division.  Office  of Mobile
Sources (EN-397F), 401 M Street. S.W.,  Washington, DC  20460, (202)  382-
2637, (FTS) 382-2637.

Robert O'Brien. Statistical Policy Branch,  Office of Policy. Planning, and
Evaluation  (PM-223),  401 M  Street,  S.W..  Washington. DC   20460, (202) 475-
9659. (FTS) 475-9659.
                                 15

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                                      ATTENDEES OF  THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18. 1988


Thomas O'Farrell.  Acting  Director, Industrial Technology Division,  Office of
Water  Regulations and Standards (WH-552), 401 M Street. S.W., Washington.
DC  20460,  (202)  382-7120,  (FTS) 382-7120.

Susan  Perlin.  Office of Policy Analysis. Office of Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-220). 401 M  Street,  S.W.,  Washington, DC  20460, (202)  382-
5867,  (FTS) 382-5867.

Dan Reinhardt. Exposure  Evaluation Division, Office of  Toxic  Substances
(TS-798), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington,  DC  20460. (202)  382-3585, (FTS)
382-3585.

Raymond C  (Rocky)  Rhodes.  Health Effects Research Laboratory (MD-55),
Research Triangle  Park, NC  27711.

Lorenz Rhomberg.  Office of Health and Environmental Assessment.  Office of
Research and  Development (RD-689).  401  M Street,  S.W., Washington,  DC
20460. (202) 382-5723, (FTS) 382-5723.

Wilson  Riggan. Health Effects Research Laboratory (MD-55),  Research
Triangle Park. NC   27711, (919) 541-7540, (FTS) 629-7540.

Reta Roe, Office of Emergency Planning and Response, Region  VII,  25
Funston  Road. Kansas  City, KS  66115, (913)  236-3881. ext. 215,  (FTS) 757-
3881, ext. 215.

Melinda Ronca-Battista. Radon Division,  Office  of Radiation  Programs (ANR-
464), 401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC   20460, (202)  475-9605,  (FTS) 475-
9605.

IiL Phillip Ross. Chief,  Statistical Policy Branch. Office of Policy, Planning.
and  Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington. DC   20460, (202)
382-2680. (FTS) 382-2680.

John G^ Schwemberger. Exposure Evaluation Division. Office  of Toxic
Substances (TS-798), 401  M  Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202)  382-
7195, (FTS)  382-7195.

Ronald W^ Schafer. Office  of  Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of
Air and Radiation  (EN-341),  401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460,
(202) 382-2810. (FTS) 382-2810.

Cheryl  Siegel Scott. Exposure and  Evaluation  Division,  Office  of Toxic
Substances (TS-798). 401  M  Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202)  382-
2282. (FTS)  382-2282.
                                 16

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                                       ATTENDEES OF THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA CONFERENCE  ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18, 1988


Bimal Sinha. Statistical Policy Branch,  Office of Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation  (PM-223). 401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-
2680, (FTS) 382-2680.

William P^ Smith. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning,  and
Evaluation  (PM-223), 401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-
2697, (FTS) 382-2697.

Nancy Sneath.  Washington Information  Center, 401 M Street. S.W.,  Washing-
ton, DC   20460, (202) 488-5921. (FTS) 488-5921.

John  D.. Spengler.  Professor of Environmental Health, Harvard  School of
Public Health,  Harvard  University,  665 Huntington Road, Boston, MA  02115,
(617) 732-1255.

Thomas H.. Starks. Environmental Research  Center, University  of Nevada,
Las Vegas,  NV   89154,  (702)  739-0826.

James E,.  Stiebing. Chief,  Surveillance Branch, Region VI (6E-S). 1445  Ross
Avenue, Suite  1200. Dallas. TX  75202, (214) 655-2284, (255-2284).

Judy  A^ Stober. Health  Effects Research Laboratory,  26 West Martin Luther
King Drive,  Cincinnati.  OH  45268. (513) 569-7379. (FTS) 684-7379.

Cindy Stroup.  Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-
798),  401  M Street, S.W..  Washington, DC  20460, (202)  382-3886.  (FTS) 382-
2886.

Clayton L^ Stunkard.  Statistical Policy  Branch.  Office of Policy. Planning.
and Evaluation (PM-223),  401  M Street. S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202)
382-3006, (FTS) 382-3006.

Jack Suggs.  Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory (MD-77B).
Research Triangle  Park, NC  27711.  (919) 541-2791,  (FTS) 629-2791.

David Svendsgaard. Health Effects Research Laboratory  (MD-55). Research
Triangle Park, NC  27711,  (919) 541-2468,  (FTS) 629-2468.

Donald Thomsen. President, SIMS. 91  Parrish Road South, New  Canaan,  CT
06840.

Timothy Titus.  Director, Chemical and Statistical Policy Division,  Office of
Policy, Planning, and  Evaluation (PM-223),  401 M Street, S.W., Washington,
DC  20460,  (202) 382-4005. (FTS) 382-4005.
                                 17

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                                      ATTENDEES OF THE FOURTH ANNUAL
                                          EPA  CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                        March 15-18, 1988


John Warren. Statistical  Policy Branch. Office of Policy, Planning,  and
Evaluation (PM-223). 401 M  Street,  S.W., Washington. DC  20460. (202) 382-
2683. (FTS) 382-2683.

Robert H.. Wayland. Deputy Assistant Administrator, Office  of Policy.
Planning,  and Evaluation (PM-219),  401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC
20460, (202) 382-4335. (FTS) 382-4335.

Dorothy Wellington. Statistical  Policy Branch. Office  of Policy, Planning,
and Evaluation (PM-223). 401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202)
475-8204,  (FTS) 475-8204.

•L. Jacob  Wind. American  Management Systems, Inc..  1777  North  Kent Street,
Arlington,  VA  22209, (703)  841-6974.
Conference Participant
Conference Planning Committee Member
                                18

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ABSTRACTS

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SESSION:  Communications Panel

TITLE:    Movin' On:   "Was It more  fun as a manager or statistician?"

AUTHORS: William Hunt, Chief, Monitoring and Reports Branch,  Office of Air
          Quality Planning and  Standards,  Research Triangle Park, and Barry
          Nussbaum, Chief, Operations  and Compliance Policy Branch, Office  of
          Air and Radiation
     One of  the  highlights of the 1987 EPA Conference on Statistics was  a lively

panel discussion  concerning communications between statisticians and high level

Agency  managers.  Several problem areas were identified  for further exploration.
Among these were:

  1.  Few statisticians  in  EPA management positions.

  2.  Lack of growth  in the  number of statisticians within  the Agency.

  3.  Lack of direct inquiry  as  to statistical validity  of  data  — lack of feeling
      that a statistician's  views might be useful,  not  to  mention essential.

  4.  Need for statisticians to join the "Tower of Babel," along with the other
      professionals, so their  concerns/views can be expressed  to management.  Is
      management  listening?

     This year's  communications panel will  extend this discussion by  centering  on

EPA's statisticians who  have attained  various levels of management.  They now

have both statistical and  non-statistical responsibilities.  While discussing the

above areas,  they will address  the following specific questions:

  1.  As  you have progressed as a manager,  have you  been  forced  to put
      statistical  rigor in a lesser light?

  2.  Was it  more  fun as  a manager or statistician?

  3.  How do you balance your statistical and programmatic  responsibilities?
      What do you tell your  statistician subordinate when she or he insists  on
      more sampling and you can't get the  answer to your boss on  time?

  4.  How do you utilize your statistical background in your managerial  role?

  5.  Now what do you  think is the most effective role of a statistician?

  6.  How would  you recommend that other statisticians pursue supervisory or
      managerial  positions?

                                      19

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  7.   Has anything changed in the past year since three DAAs discussed their
      perception of statistics?

  8.   Have you noticed  a new quest for statistical validity?

     The panel  will  include:

     •   Gerald Akland, Director, Monitoring and  Assessment Division,  Environ-
        mental  Monitoring Systems Laboratory, Research  Triangle Park

     •   Joseph  Carra, Director, Waste Management  Division. Office  of Solid
        Waste

     •   William Hunt, Chief, Monitoring and Reports Branch, Office of Air
        Quality Planning and  Standards, Research  Triangle Park

     •   Henry  Kahn,  Chief, Statistics Section, Office of Water Regulations and
        Standards

     •   Barry Nussbaum, Chief, Operations and  Compliance Policy  Branch, Office
        of Air and Radiation

Each panelist will have  an opportunity to make  opening remarks and  then to
rebut remarks made  by other panelists.  This will  be  followed  by  discussion from
the audience.
                                      20

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SESSION:   The "Cheap" Statistician
TITLE:     The "Cheap" Statistician:  Where is S/He?
AUTHOR:   Henry Kahn, Chief, Statistics Section.  Office of Water Regulations and
           Standards
     The cost  of  statistical work is usually the  focal point of the interaction
between managers and statisticians.   This  panel  discussion  between managers and
statisticians will  deal with  the  costs  of doing  statistical work, the responsibilities
of statisticians and managers to see that appropriate cost and technical con-
siderations  are incorporated into planning and  design,  the  willingness of manage-
ment  to pay for statistical  work, doing statistical  work cheaply,  cost  savings
through  effective  use of statistical  design  and analysis,  and getting  what you  pay
for.  The panel will include two managers and  two statisticians.  Each panel
member will make a presentation followed  by panel discussion and open discus-
sion from the floor.

     The panel will include:
     •   Thomas Curran. Statistician, Office of  Air Quality Planning and Stan-
        dards.  Research Triangle Park
     •   Barnes  Johnson,  Statistician, Statistical Policy Branch, Office  of Policy,
        Planning,  and Evaluation
     •   Thomas Kelly, Director,  Office of Standards and Regulations, Office of
        Policy,  Planning, and Evaluation
     •   Thomas O'Farrell, Acting Director, Industrial  Technology Division,  Office
        of Water  Regulations and Standards, Office of Water
                                      21

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SESSION:   Data Quality Objectives

TITLE:     Data Quality Objectives  (DQOs):  New OMB Requirements

AUTHORS:  Oscar Morales, Information Policy Branch, Office  of Policy,  Planning,
           and Evaluation,  Dean Neptune, Office of Acid Deposition. Environ-
           mental Monitoring, and Quality Assurance, Office  of Research  and
           Development, and John Warren, Statistical Policy  Branch, Office of
           Policy, Planning, and  Evaluation
     The Office of Management and Budget (OMB)  published  in  the  Federal

Register.  January 20, 1988,  notice  of Guidelines for Federal Statistical Activities:

           "The Office of Management and Budget (OMB)  is soliciting public
     comment on a draft OMB circular that would  revise government-wide
     guidance  for planning and conducting statistical  surveys,  publishing
     statistical data, documenting  statistical methods  and procedures, and
     using standard  statistical classifications, definitions, and  data sources.
     The guidance, which applies  to all Federal agencies subject to the
     Paper Reduction Act of  1980,  is intended to  assure that the results of
     statistical surveys and  studies sponsored  by the Federal government
     are  as reliable  and useful as  possible and  that statistical  activities are
     conducted as  efficiently  as possible."

     These guidelines will affect all statisticians  in the Agency because:

           "The circular would for the first time establish guidelines  for
     documenting all methods, procedures, and models  used to produce
     statistical estimates and would revise and  strengthen existing guidance
     on  planning of  statistical surveys, treatment of respondents, publica-
     tion of  statistical  data, and  use  of standard statistical classifications,
     definitions, and data sources."

     Fortunately, the Agency  has  several mechanisms  that will enable  us to meet

(and in many cases exceed)  the requirements outlined in the OMB guidelines.

Oscar Morales will  explain the Information Clearance Request process as it

affects statisticians;  and Dean Neptune  will outline  the  Data Quality Objectives

program  and  where statisticians will be  called upon to make their contribution.

There will be a discussion period at the end  of  the presentation and comments

received  will be  forwarded to  OMB  as part of the  Agency's Official  Comment.


     Attached  is a copy of the Federal  Register containing OMB's "Guidelines  for

Federal Statistical  Activities."
                                      22

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    Wednesday
    January 20, 1988
    Part ir

    Office of
    Management and
    Budget	
    Guidelines for Federal Statistical
    Activities; Notice
22a

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1542
Federal  Register / Vol. 53, No. 12 / Wednesday, January 20, 1988  / Notices
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND
BUDGET

Guidelines for Federal Statistical
Activities

AGENCY: Office of Management and
Budget.
ACTION: Notice of a draft circular
establishing guidelines for Federal
statistical activities.

SUMMARY: The Office of Management
and Budget (OMB] is soliciting public
comment on a draft OMB Circular that
would revise government-wide guidance
for planning and conducting statistical
surveys, publishing statistical data,
documenting statistical methods and
procedures, and using standard
statistical classifications, definitions.
and data sources. The guidance, which
applies to all Federal agencies subject to
the Paperwork Reduction Act of I960, is
intended to assure that the results of
statistical surveys and studies
sponsored by the Federal government
are as reliable and useful as possible
and that statistical activities are
conducted as  efficiently as possible.
DATE: Comments must be received on or
before April 19.1988.
ADDRESS: Comments are invited on any
aspect of the Circular. They should be
made in writing and sent to Dorothy  M.
Telia. Office of Management and
Budget. Room 3001, New Executive
Office Building. Washington. DC 20503.
The comments will be available for
public examination at this address.
FOR FURTHER  INFORMATION CONTACT:
Dorothy M. Telia, (202) 395-3093.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Statistics
collected and published by the Federal
government constitute a large part of the
available information about the  United
States economy, population, natural
resources, environment, and public and
private institutions. These data are used
by the Federal government and others
as the basis for actions that affect
people's lives and well-being. It  is
essential that they be collected,
processed, and published in a manner
that guarantees and inspires confidence
in their reliability. The statistical
programs of the Federal government  are
decentralized among seventy or more
agencies or separate departmental units.
It is therefore also essential that, to the
extent permitted by  law, there be
sufficient government-wide uniformity
in statistical methods and practices to
ensure the maximum usefulness of the
statistics produced.
  The Paperwork Reduction Act of 1980,
as amended (44 U.S.C. 3504). gives the
Director of OMB broad responsibility for
                      improving the usefulness of information
                      collected, maintained, and disseminated
                      by the Federal government and for
                      reducing the Federal government's
                      reporting burden on the public. Among
                      the Director's functions under the Act
                      are statistical policy and coordination
                      functions, which include the
                      development and implementation of
                      policies, principles, standards, and
                      guidelines concerning statistical
                      collection procedures and methods,
                      statistical data classification, statistical
                      information presentation and
                      dissemination, and such statistical data
                      sources as may be required for the
                      administration of Federal programs.
                        This Circular provides revised
                      guidance for designing, conducting, and
                      publishing statistical surveys and
                      studies sponsored by Federal agencies.
                      The guidelines are intended to ensure
                      that such surveys and studies are
                      designed to produce reliable  data as
                      efficiently as possible and that methods
                      are documented and results presented  in
                      a manner that makes the data as
                      accessible and useful as possible. The
                      Circular would also establish guidelines
                      for the use of standard classifications,
                      definitions, and data sources. The
                      Circular would rescind and replace
                      guidance on the conduct of Federal
                      statistical activities currently contained
                      in 19 statistical policy directives.
                      (Section 2 of the Circular lists the
                      rescinded directives.) The Circular
                      would, however, leave in place Directive
                      No. 19. "Reports of the Department of
                      Commerce on International
                      Transactions" (43 FR 19272, May 4.
                      19781.
                        The Circular would  for the first time
                      establish guidelines for documenting all
                      methods, procedures, and models used
                      to produce statistical estimates and
                      would revise and strengthen existing
                      guidance on planning of statistical
                      surveys, treatment of respondents,
                      publication of statistical data, and use of
                      standard statistical  classifications.
                      definitions, and data sources. The
                      Circular would discontinue certain
                      classifications and definitions as
                      government-wide statistical standards,
                      as indicated below.
                        The attachments to  the Circular
                      address the following  subjects:
                        Planning Statistical Surveys. The
                      OMB paperwork regulation (5 CFR Part
                      1320) requires that when agencies seek
                      OMB approval to collect information.
                      they demonstrate that they have taken
                      reasonable steps to ensure that the
                      information is useful and that the cost
                      and burden of collecting it have been
                      minimized. Attachment A of the Circular
                      specifies the documentation  that the
                      sponsoring agency shall include in its
request for OMB approval of a
statistical survey to demonstrate that
the survey is designed efficiently and
will produce reliable, useful results.
  Treatment of Respondents The
guidelines m Attachment B are intended
to reassure respondents to statistical
surveys that the Federal government is
dealing with them honestly and
forthnghtly and that their interests are
being protected. For this purpose.
agencies that sponsor statistical surveys
should provide certain information to
potential respondents about the purpose
of each survey and the planned use of
the survey data, including any matching
or combination of individual respondent
data with data from administrative
sources. Any such match or combination
should meet the conditions specified m
section 3.c. of the attachment. Matches
for statistical purposes, to which the
guidance in Attachment B applies, are
not covered by the OMB Guidelines for
conducting computerized matching
programs (47 FR 21656, May 19.1982].
Agencies should take the specific steps
outlined in Attachment B to ensure the
protection from public disclosure of
information collected under a pledge of
confidentiality. Attachment B would
also establish certain design guidelines
for statistical surveys conducted under
mandatory reporting authority, in order
to minimize the burden of such surveys
on individual respondents.
  Statistical Publications. Attachment C
contains guidelines for the presentation
and documentation of the results of
statistical surveys and studies. To
ensure that other agencies and the
public have an opportunity to verify and
use the results of all Federally-
sponsored statistical surveys and
studies, the sponsoring agency should
either publish the results or maintain
them in an accessible data base such
that requests for summary data or
tabulations can be met within 90 days.
This guidance is based on the
presumption that data collected for
statistical purposes have practical
utility, as defined in 5 CFR Part 1320,
only to the extent that they are
accessible to potential users within and
outside the Federal government. In
deciding whether to publish the results
or else to maintain them in an accessible
data base, agencies will be expected to
conform to the policies on the
dissemination of government
information products and services
established in section 8.a.(9) of OMB
Circular A-130, Management of Federal
Information Resources (50 FR 52730.
December24.1985).
  Documentation of Methods and
Procedures. Attachment D contains

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                  Federal Register / Vol. 53. No.  12 / Wednesday. January  20. 1988 / Notices
                                                                         1543
guidelines under which agencies would
maintain publicly available
documentation of all statistical methods,
procedures, and models used to produce
statistical data and estimates, thereby
enabling users to make informed.
independent judgments about the
quality of data and estimates and to
verify that they have been produced by
sound, replicable methods.
  Compilation. Release, and Evaluation
of Principal Federal Economic
Indicators.  Attachment E contains
guidelines for the compilation, release,
and evaluation of data series that have
been designated  as principal economic
indicators by the Director of OMB. The
provisions in this attachment are the
same as those  in Statistical Policy
Directive No. 3 (50 FR 38932. September
25.1985), except  for the addition, in
Section 8, of the provision that agencies
inform the public of the uncertainty or
probable range of error in preliminary
estimates of economic indicators.
  Use of Standard Classifications. Data
Sources, and Definitions.  Attachment F
establishes, and prescribes the uses  of.
certain standard statistical
classifications, data sources, and
definitions, which have all been
previously established in  OMB
Statistical Policy Directives. Five
classifications or definitions would be
discontinued as government-wide
statistical standards either because the
current standards have not proven
useful for the statistical purposes
intended (standard Federal
administrative regions, the standard
industrial classification of enterprises.
and the standard reference base period
for Federal government general-purpose
index numbers) or because they are
used by only one or two agencies to
collect and publish statistics (the
standard classification of fields  of
science and engineering and the
standard gas pressure base). In the
latter case, OMB believes it is more
practical for the principal user agencies
to maintain the standards. The Circular
makes it clear  that the definitions of
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
the Standard Industrial Classification
(SIC), and the Standard Occupational
Classification (SOC) are established and
maintained by OMB solely for statistical
purposes and that agencies that use
these statistical standards in
nonstatistical programs bear the
responsibility for assunng that the
standard definitions or classifications
are appropriate for those uses;
  Provision of'Statistical'Data to
International Organizations.
Attachment G  provides guidance on the
implementation of Executive Order
10033.
  In several cases, statistical activities
covered by this Circular are also
covered by other OMB Circulars. In such
cases, this Circular supplements or
clarifies the guidance in the other
Circulars as it relates to statistical
collections and publications. The
specific instances of each are noted in
the appropriate portions of the Circular.
Wendy L Gramm.
Administrator for Information and Regulatory
Affairs.

OMB Circular No. A-	
To the Heads of Executive Departments
    and Establishments.
Subject: Guidelines for Federal
    Statistical Activities.
  1. Purpose. This Circular revises
government-wide guidance for planning
and conducting statistical surveys,
publishing statistical data, and
documenting statistical methods and
procedures. These guidelines are
intended to assure that all statistical
surveys and studies sponsored by the
Federal government produce as accurate
and useful information as possible.
serve their purposes as efficiently as
possible, and impose no unnecessary
burden on respondents. The Circular
also prescribes four standards—a
standard data source for population
estimates, a standard data  source for
labor force and unemployment
estimates, standard categories for
reporting race and ethnic background.
and a standard definition of poverty—to
be used in the administration of Federal
programs, consistent with statutory
requirements. It also clarifies the
responsibilities of agencies that use the
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC),
the Standard Occupational
Classification (SOC). and the standard
definitions of Metropolitan Statistical
Areas (MSAs) for nonstatistical
purposes.
  2. Rescissions This Circular rescinds
and replaces Statistical Policy
Directives Nos. 1-2 and 5-18 (43 FR
19260. May 4.1978); Statistical Policy
Directive No. 3 (48 FR 3253, January 14.
1981). as revised (50 FR 38932.
September 25.1985); and the directive
entitled "Comparability of Statistics on
Business Size" (47 FR 2136Z. May 18.
1982).
  3. Authority. The Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1980. as amended (44
U.S.C. 3504); the Budget and Accounting
Procedures Act of 1950, as amended (31
U.S.C. 1104): Executive Order 10253 of
June 11.1951. as amended  (see 31 USCA
1104): and Executive Order 10033 of
February 8.1949. as amended (see 22
USCA 286F).
  4. Background The Paperwork
Reduction Act grants the Director of the
Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) broad authority to develop and
implement government-wide policies.
principles, standards, and guidelines
concerning statistical collection
procedures and methods, statistical data
classifications, statistical information
presentation and dissemination, and
statistical data sources required for the
administration of Federal programs. Tne
Act also reassigns to the Director the
authority in the Budget and Accounting
Procedures Act to develop programs and
issue regulations and orders for the
improved gathering, compiling,
analyzing, publishing, and  disseminating
of statistical information fur any
purpose by the various agencies of the
executive  branch of the Federal
government. Since the Paperwork
Reduction Act took effect in 1981. OMB
has provided government-wide guidance
on collecting and publishing statistical
data in 19 statistical policy directives-
Directives Nos. 1-2 and 5-19 (43 FR
19260. May 4.1978): Directive No. 3 (46
FR 3253. January 14,1981). as revised (50
FR 38932, September 25,1985); and a
directive establishing standard business
size categories for statistical purposes.
"Comparability of Statistics on Business
Size" (47 FR 21382. May 18,1982). This
Circular rescinds and replaces all of
these directives except Directive No. 19.
"Reports of the Department of
Commerce on International
Transactions" (43 FR 19272. May 4.
1978).
  OMB information collection reviews
and other evaluations of statistical
activities and publications have pointed
to a need for more explicit  guidance to
agencies on (1) planning statistical
surveys so that they meet the
requirements set forth in 5  CFR Part 1320
for OMB approval under the Paperwork
Reduction Act: (2) treating respondents
to statistical surveys in a manner that
ensures the public's continued
willingness to provide accurate, timely
information to the Federal  government
for statistical purposes: and (3)
documenting statistical surveys and
studies in  such a way as to make their
results as useful as possible, minimize
the risk that statistics may be
misinterpreted, and ensure the public
that estimates have been produced by
sound, replicable methods. The Circular
establishes guidelines on these aspects
of statistical work, as well as on the use
of standard classifications, data sources.
and definitions for statistical and
administrative purposes: on the

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 1544
Federal  Register / Vol. 53. No.  12 / Wednesday. January 20. 1988 /  Notices
 compilation, release, and evaluation of
 principal Federal economic indicators:
 and on the provision of statistical data
 to international organizations.
 consistent with the requirements of
 Executive Order 10033.
   5. Coverage. The provisions of the
 Circular apply to all Federal agencies
 subject to the Paperwork Reduction Act
 of 1980 (see 5 CFR 1320.7(a)). to all
 statistical surveys and studies
 sponsored by those agencies, and to all
 publications resulting from such surveys
 and studies.
   6. Agency Implementation. This
 Circular provides policy guidance on
 statistical issues. This guidance should
 be applied to the extent permitted by the
 laws governing the agency's actions.
   7. Definitions. For the purposes of this
 Circular
   a. "Benchmarking"  is the
 reconciliation of one estimate with
 another that is thought to be more
 accurate.
   b. "Data" is used interchangeably
• with "information", as defined in 5 CFR
 1320.7(k), when referring to information
 collected in or resulting from statistical
 surveys and studies.
   c. An "estimate" is  a numerical value
 or relationship that is derived from a
 survey, model, other statistical or
 mathematical procedures, or
 professional judgment.
   d. "Imputation" means assigning
 estimated values to fill in missing data
 on individual statistical records or to
• replace data supplied by respondents
 that an agency believes to be in error.
 Changes to correct obvious coding or
 recording errors made by the_agency are
 not imputations. Filling in missing data
 with data that the same respondent has
 supplied on another statistical or
 administrative record is not defined as
 imputation if the data were supplied in
 response to the same question for the
 same time period.
   e. "Publication" means any release of
 statistical data or results of a statistical
 study for distribution or sale to the
 public on paper, computer tape, disk, or
 any other semipermanent medium, or by
 means of electronic data bases.
   f. A Federal agency is the "sponsor"
 of a statistical survey or study if:
   (1) That agency conducts the survey
 or study using funds appropriated to it
 or available for discretionary use
 through other means;
   (2] That agency provides funds
 appropriated  to it to another Federal
 agency, other government organization.
 or a private contractor to conduct the
 survey or study; or
   (3) The survey or study is conducted
 under a grant from or cooperative
 agreement with that agency and:
                        (A) The grantee or cooperating party
                      is conducting the survey or study at the
                      specific request of the agency for the
                      planning, operation, or evaluation of its
                      programs: or
                        (B) The terms and conditions of the
                      grant or agreement provide for prior or
                      ongoing agency approval of the
                      collection of information or the
                      procedures to be used in the survey or
                      study.
                        g. "Statistics are the quantitative
                      results of a survey or study. Statistics
                      include both aggregate estimates and
                      the elements of individual data records.
                        h. Information collected for
                      "statistical purposes" is information
                      collected for the purpose of reporting
                      population characteristics, developing
                      statistical procedures, or constructing
                      sampling frames. Information collected
                      for any other purpose is for
                      "nonstatistical purposes".
                        i. "Statistical study" means any study
                      that makes use of a survey, model, or
                      statistical or mathematical procedure or
                      of estimates derived by these means.
                        j. "Statistical survey" means a
                      collection of data from or about any
                      population or group for the purpose of
                      studying characteristics of the
                      population or group. Both collections of
                      data gathered directly from respondents
                      in a census or sample of the study
                      population and compilations of data
                      from administrative records for
                      statistical purposes are defined as
                      statistical surveys.
                        8. Contents. The guidance provided by
                      this Circular is set forth in the
                      attachments:
                      Attachment A—Planning of statistical
                        surveys
                      Attachment B—Treatment of
                        respondents
                      Attachment C—Statistical publications
                      Attachment D—Documentation of
                        methods and procedures
                      Attachment E—Compilation, release.
                        and evaluation of principal Federal
                        economic indicators
                      Attachment F—Use of standard
                        classifications,  data sources, and
                        definitions
                      Attachment G—Provision of  statistical
                        information to international
                        organizations
                        9. Submission of Agency Plan. Within
                      120 days of the publication of this
                      Circular, the* head of each agency shall
                      submit to the Director a plan, including
                      completion dates, for bringing all the
                      agency's programs into compliance with
                      the guidelines in the Circular. Where
                      appropriate, these plans shall be
                      coordinated with the anticipated
                      schedule for paperwork clearance
                      reviews.
  10. Judicial Review  This Circular is
not intended to create any right or
benefit, substantive or procedural.
enforceable at law by a party against
the United States, its agencies, its
officers, or any person.
  11. Information Contact Chief.
Statistical Policy Office. Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs.
Telephone: (202) 395-3093.
ATTACHMENT A—Circular No. A-	

Planning of Statistical Surveys
  1. This attachment outlines the
documentation that is to accompany
statistical surveys when they are
submitted to OMB for approval under
the Paperwork Reduction Act. in order to
demonstrate that the surveys meet the
relevant requirements of the Act and
its implementing regulation. 5 CFR Part
1320. It replaces guidance on the
planning of statistical surveys
previously contained in Statistical
Policy Directive No. 1. "Standards for
Statistical Surveys." which is rescinded
by this Circular.
  2. With every request for OMB
approval of a statistical  survey under
the Paperwork Reduction Act.  the
sponsoring agency shall submit
supporting documentation to
demonstrate that the survey has a useful
purpose and is designed to accomplish
that purpose as efficiently as possible.
That documentation shall include the
following information:
  a. The analytical purpose of the
survey. The documentation shall state
specifically the analytical problem or
research question the survey is expected
to solve or answer and shall explain the
role the survey is expected to play in the
analysis. If the analysis calls for any
individual match or combination of data
collected directly from respondents in
the survey with data from
administrative sources, the
documentation shall fully describe the
purpose of and plans for the match or
combination. Any such match or
combination should comply with the
provisions in Attachment B. Section 3.c.
When requesting OMB approval of a
pretest, the sponsoring agency shall
specify the aspect of the survey that is
to be pretested, the design features of
the actual survey that will be
determined by the results of the pretest.
and the agency's plans and timetable for
evaluating the pretest results.
  b. The statistical objectives of the
survey. The documentation shall specify
the population to be investigated, the
variables for which data are to be
gathered, the parameters to be
estimated on the basis of survey data.

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                  Federal  Register / Vol. 53. No.  12 / Wednesday, January 20,  1988 / Notices
                                                                         1545
 and the accuracy requirements for these
 estimates. If the survey is to investigate
 relationships among variables,
 differences among populations, or
 changes over time, the documentation
 shall indicate the necessary accuracy of
 the estimates of these relationships,
 differences, or changes.
  c. The need for a sjurvey. For any
 survey that involves a new collection of
 data from the public, the sponsoring
 agency shall describe its efforts to
 obtain suitable data from other sources.
 including existing surveys,
 administrative records, and model-
 based estimates, and explain why such
 alternatives were rejected.
  d. The feasibility of the survey. The
 sponsoring agency shall submit
 documentation to demonstrate that the
 desired information exists and that it
 can be obtained through a survey in a
 sufficiently timely manner and at a
 sufficient level of accuracy and detail to
 serve the analytical purposes of the
 survey.
  e. Justification of the proposed
frequency of the survey. If the survey is
 to be recurring, the sponsoring agency
 shall submit documentation to
 demonstrate that:
  (1) Measurable changes in the
 phenomena being studied are expected
 to occur in the proposed interval
 between data collections and that such
 changes need to be estimated to fulfill
 the analytical purpose of the survey;
  (2) Without a survey at the proposed
 frequency, changes during this interval
 could not be estimated with an
 acceptable degree of accuracy; and
  (3) The sponsoring agency is able and
 intends to collect, process, and publish
 data promptly if collection is at the
 frequency proposed.
  f. The survey design. The sponsoring
 agency shall submit documentation to
 demonstrate that:
  (1) The survey will collect all data not
 available from other, sources that are
 necessary for the analyses the survey ia
 intended to support.
  (2) The survey is designed to satisfy
 the accuracy requirements of the
 analyses it is intended to support. The
 documentation shall include estimates
of the variance of key parameters.
including composites and projections, to
demonstrate that they are likely to be
within acceptable limits.-If the survey is
intended to measure relationships
among variables, differences among
populations, or changes over time, the
documentation shall also include
calculations to demonstrate  that the
relationships, differences, or changes of
interest can probably be measured with
the precision required. If the sample
design calls for nonprobability sampling.
 the documentation shall explain the
 basis for statements about the accuracy
 of the estimates.
   (3] The survey design is operationally
 feasible. The sponsoring agency shall
 demonstrate that it is able to carry out
 the survey as designed.
   (4) Adequate steps have been taken to
 minimize the impact of nonsamphng
 error on the estimates to be derived
 from survey data. The documentation
 shall identify the potential sources of
 error and give the sponsoring agency's
 projection of the size of such errors and
 their impact, individually and in the
 aggregate, on the estimates. All potential
 sources of nonsampling error shall be
 analyzed, including:
   (A) Any differences between the
 target population (the universe of study)
 and the sampling frame;
   (B) Any conceptual differences
 between the parameters to be estimated
 on the basis of survey data and the
 parameters desired for the planned
 analyses;
   (C) In statistical studies that involve
 control groups, dissimilarities between •
 the study group and the control group:
 and
   (O) The expected extent and impact of
 overall and item nonresponse. The
 documentation shall include estimates
 of response rates based on the
 sponsoring agency's prior experience (or
 the experience of the organization
 conducting the survey) with the same
 survey or similar surveys. If the agency
 anticipates significantly different rates
* of nonresponse for different subgroups
 of the sampled population or for
 different questions in the survey, it shall
 provide  separate estimates for all such
 subgroups and questions. If timeliness of
 response is important (for example, if
 the sponsoring agency has specified cut-
 off dates for publishing or using data), it
 shall indicate the expected response
 rates by the relevant cut-off dates.
   Under S CFR 1320.8(8). statistical
 surveys  must be designed to produce
 results that can be generalized to the
 universe of study. Accordingly, the
 sponsoring agency shall submit
 documentation to demonstrate either
 that nonsampling error is sufficiently
 small that it is unlikely Urbias estimates
 derived from survey data, or that
 effective methods have been developed
 to adjust for such error. All
 benchmarking, imputation, and other
 adjustment methods shall be described
 in the documentation.
   (5) The proposed design satisfies the
 survey objectives In a way that
 minimizes the burden on respondents.
 consistent with sound administrative
 practices and reasonable cost to the
 government.  In estimating the burden on
 respondents, agencies shall take into
 account the amount of time it will take
 to provide proper responses and the cost
 of the time of the particular individuals
 who will be asked to respond, including
 any time that will be required by agency
 follow-up. Before submitting a survey to
 OMB for approval, (he sponsoring
 agency shall analyze the benefits and
 costs of a range of possible design
 options, including alternative sample
 sizes and data collection techniques.
 The documentation supporting the
 request for approval shall summarize
 the results of this analysis.
  (6) The survey meets the conditions
 set forth in Attachment B. Section 4.
 whenever response to the survey is
 mandatory. The documentation  for
 surveys that use mandatory reporting
 authority shall also provide a
 justification of the  use of such authority
 in terms of its effectiveness in meeting
 the survey's objectives. The
 documentation  shall include the
 sponsoring agency's plans for enforcing
 the penalties for nonresponse.
  g. Performance and Quality Measures.
 The documentation'shall specify what
 measures the sponsoring agency will use
 to evaluate the  performance of the
 survey and the  quality of the data
 collected. It shall list the performance
 indicators that will be calculated and
 available after completion of the survey,
 such as:
  (1) Nonresponse  rates;
  (2) Rates of edit failure:
  (3) Percentage of cases requiring
 follow-up or reinterview; and
  (4) Timeliness measures, such as the
 number of days required to collect data
 from respondents and the number of
 days between the reference date of the
 survey and the date survey results are
 published.
  The documentation shall also include
 a description of the information
 validation techniques and quality
 control procedures that will be used to
 verify that data in publications or in
 final data bases are equivalent to the
 data actually collected.
  h. Disclosure  control techniques. The
 documentation shall state what
 disclosure control techniques are to be
 used in each kind of release of survey
 data (e.g., summary tabulations and
 microdata products). If variables or
 table cells are to be suppressed,  the
 documentation shall indicate what
 variables will be suppressed and what
cross classifications are likely to be lost.
The description of disclosure control
techniques shall be general enough so
that it cannot be used to breach the
protection against disclosure. The
documentation shall report the

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 1546
Federal  Register / Vol. 53. No.  12 / Wednesday. January 20.  1988 / Notices
 sponsoring agency's efforts to minimize
 the impact of its disclosure control
 techniques on the usefulness of the
 survey data.
   i. Quality standards for publishing
 data  The documentation shall specify
 what quality standards the sponsoring
 agency will use to determine whether
 data from the survey are publishable or
 should be suppressed.
 .  j. Processing and reporting of survey
 data. The documentation shall describe:
   (1) The editing and imputation
 procedures to be used in processing the
 survey data;
   (2) The procedures to be used in
 preparing estimates based on survey
 data, including benchmarking and
 seasonal adjustment methods and
 methods for creating composite
 variables; and
   (3) The contents of all planned
 products of the survey, including  .
 tabulations to be published, analytical
 reports to be prepared by the sponsoring
 agency, and public use data products,
 with the dates that the sponsoring
 agency intends to release these
 products. If the data to be gathered in
 the survey are likely to be of substantial
 interest for research purposes, the
 sponsoring agency should plan to
 produce a public-use data file. The data
 Gle should be offered on a cost-recovery
 basis, i.e., with the fees for purchase or
 use of the file set so as to recover the
 agency's incremental cost of preparing,
 maintaining, and distributing the file, as
 provided in OMB Circular A-25. The
 agency's documentation shall indicate
 whether the agency plans to release a
 public-use data file in conformity with
 the provisions in Attachment C. Section
 2.d. The documentation shall also
 provide a schedule for such release.
  k. The basis for any pledge of
 confidentiality. If the sponsoring agency
 intends to make a pledge of
 confidentiality covering information
 collected in the survey, the
 documentation shall include the
 statement required by Attachment B.
 Section 3.b.(l) of this Circular, and shall
 indicate whether'the agency has
 complied with all the other provisions of
 Attachment B.. Section 3.a. and 3.b.

ATTACHMENT B—Circular No. A-	
 Treatment of Respondents
  1. This attachment sets forth
guidelines for the treatment of
respondents to statistical surveys, and "
replaces guidance on this subject
previously contained in section 8 of
Statistical Policy Directive No. 1. The
guidelines in this attachment are
independent of obligations imposed on
agencies by the Privacy Act and apply
                      regardless of whether the record
                      systems supporting an agency's
                      statistical programs are exempt from
                      certain provisions of that Act under 5
                      U.S.C. 552a(k). Moreover, these
                      guidelines are to be applied in addition
                      to all relevant provisions of 5 CFR Part
                      1320. The guidelines for matching or
                      combining statistical and administrative
                      information (Sections 2.d.(3) and 3.c.)
                      apply only to matches for statistical
                      purposes and therefore do not overlap
                      the OMB Guidelines for conducting
                      computerized matching programs (47 FR
                      21656. May 19.1982). which specifically
                      exclude from their coverage matches for
                      statistical purposes.
                       2. Informing respondents. Agencies
                      that sponsor statistical surveys should
                      ensure that potential respondents are
                      provided the following information at
                      the time they are asked to participate in
                      such surveys:
                       a. The names of all sponsors of the
                      survey, including organizations other
                      than Federal agencies that are providing
                      funding for the survey:
                       b. The subjects about which
                      respondents will be asked to supply
                      information, in sufficient detail to alert
                      respondents to any sensitive topics in
                      the survey;
                       c. For surveys in which information is
                      to be collected periodically from the
                      same respondents, the period during
                      which and the frequency with which the
                      respondent wilt be asked to supply
                      information;
                       d. The uses that are intended to be
                      made of information from the survey
                      (e.g.. to publish statistics on a stated
                      subject or to carry  out a particular
                      study). The sponsorir^ agency should
                     •explicitly state:
                       (1) Whether it intends to use the
                      information exclusively for statistical
                     purposes. In cases  for which that is the
                     intent, the sponsoring agency should
                     explicitly state the measures it has
                     taken and its legal  authority to prevent
                     nonstatistical uses:
                       (2) Whether a pledge of
                     confidentiality, made in accordance
                     with the requirements of Section 3.b. of
                     this attachment,  covers the information
                     collected and the fact of the
                     respondent's participation in the survey:
                     and
                       (3) Whether it plans to match or
                     combine survey data with information
                     about survey respondents from
                     administrative sources. If any individual
                     match or combination of survey data
                     and administrative information ia
                     intended, the sponsoring agency should
                     explain its nature and purpose to
                     potential respondents; and
                       e. If the survey uses mandatory
                     reporting authority, a full  quotation of
 the relevant text of the statute(s) and/or
 regulation(s) that establish the
 mandatory reporting authority and the
 penalties for nonresponse.
   3. Protection of confidentiality and
 privacy.
   a. A Federal agency that collects
 information for statistical purposes
 under a pledge of confidentiality should
 protect that information from public
 disclosure to the extent permitted by
 law. Measures to provide this protection
 should Include at a minimum:
   (1) Written policies that proscribe the
 use of such information for
 nonstatistical purposes;
   (2) Written policies and procedures
 for ensuring the physical security of the
 information while in the possession of
 the agency, its contractors, or its
 grantees. Where appropriate, these
 should include policies implementing the
 provisions of Appendix III of OMB
 Circular A-130 (50 FR 52730. December
 24.1985). on the Security of Automated
 Information Systems;
   (3) A program to ensure that the
 agency's employees, contractors, and
 grantees are fully aware of their
 responsibilities for the safeguarding of
 confidential information; and
   (4) Such other policies, programs, or
 agency rules as are available and
 necessary to protect from public
 disclosure respondent information that
 the agency believes qualifies for
 exemption from disclosure under the
 Freedom of Information Act (5 U.S.C
 552).
   Policies, programs, or rules
 estabk'shed for this purpose should
 eliminate any legal or administrative
 discretion otherwise retained by the
 agency to make public disclosures that
 are not consistent with the provisions  of
 this section. Before submitting to OMB
 for review any proposed information
 collection for statistical purposes that  is
 to be covered by a pledge of
 confidentiality, the sponsoring agency
 shall have resolved any legal questions
 affecting its ability to prevent public
 disclosure of the information.
  b. To ensure consistent and accurate
 public understanding of pledges of
 statistical confidentiality, no agency
 should make such a pledge of
 confidentiality unless:
  (1) It has provided a statement to
 OMB that it believes the information
•covered by the pledge Is exempt from
 disclosure under the Freedom of
 Information Act indicating upon what
 exemption it relies and, if the exemption
 is by statute, citing the relevant statute;
  (2) It has met the requirements of
 Section 3.a, of this attachment for
 protecting confidentiality, and

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                  Federal Register /  Vol. 53.  No. 12 / Wednesday. January 20. 19B8  / Notices	1547
  (3) It includes in the information
collection the following uniform pledge
of confidentiality:
  This information  collection conforms to
legal and administrative standards
established by the Federal government to
assure confidential  treatment of statistical
information. The information you provide will
be used only for statistical purposes and will
not be published or released in any form that
would reveal specific information reported by
any individually identifiable respondent. The
[name of sponsoring agency or department]
has determined that the information you
provide, as well as the fact that you have
participated in this survey, is exempt from
public disclosure under the Freedom of
information Act.
In any case where potential respondents
might misinterpret agency statements
concerning statistical use or" confidential
treatment, OMB may require the
sponsoring agency to display on
information collection forma, or
otherwise convey to potential
respondents,  an explicit statement of
noncompliance with the confidentiality
provisions of this  Circular.
  c. If information is collected for
statistical purposes, as stated to
respondents pursuant to Section 2.d.(l)
of this attachment, any individual match
or combination of that information with
information from administrative records
should meet the following conditions:
  (1) The match or combination is
exclusively for statistical purposes:
  (2) The sponsor of each statistical
survey involved in the match or
combination has informed all
respondents as required in Section
2.d.(3) of this  attachment; and
  (3) Any  match or combination
involving a statistical survey is
conducted as described in the
sponsoring agency's request for OMB
approval of the survey, submitted in
accordance with Attachment A, Section
2.a. of this Circular.
  4. Designing and conducting surveys
that use mandatory reporting authority.
  Unless there is a statutory
requirement that the survey be designed
otherwise, any statistical survey that
uses mandatory reporting authority
should meet the following conditions:
  a. The survey is designed so that all
units in the population of study, or
within each designated sampling
stratum of the population, have an equal
probability of being included in the
survey:
  b. If the  survey requires periodic
responses by  the same respondents, the
sample is redrawn at regular intervals
not to exceed 3 years; and
  c. The information that respondents
are required to provide includes only
factual information that  can be obtained
from and verified by respondents'
records.
ATTACHMENT C—Circular No. A-	

Statistical Publications
  1. This attachment sets forth
guidelines for publishing the results of
statistical surveys and studies. It
replaces guidance previously contained
in Statistical Policy Directive No. 2.
"Standards for the Publication of
Statistics," which is rescinded by this
Circular.
  2. Obligation to publish.
  a. Agencies that sponsor statistical
surveys and studies should either
publish the results or else make them
available upon request in a form that
does not reveal information about any
individually-identifiable respondent.
Nonpublished results should be
maintained in a data base that is
sufficiently accessible that requests by
other agencies or the public for
tabulations or summaries can be met
within 90 days.
  b. Except as provided in Attachment E
of this Circular for principal Federal
economic indicators, no data collected
in a statistical survey should be
suppressed or withheld from release
unless:
  (1) Suppression is necessary to protect
the confidentiality of information
provided by individual respondents, or
  (2) The data fail to meet the quality
standards for publication that the
sponsoring agency has specified in its
request for OMB approval of the data
collection, as required in Attachment A.
Section 2.L of this Circular. If it is
necessary to suppress data because they
fail to meet these standards, the
sponsoring agency shall report to OMB
die data items to be suppressed and the
basis, for suppression, as soon as the
agency has that information, and should:
  (A) Notify potential users that the
data will not  be published or otherwise
released; and
  (B) Make no use of the suppressed
data in any published reports or
estimates.
  c. Agencies should annually publish.
either in the Federal Register or in an
agency publication, a catalog of the
statistical data in their files, indicating
the form in which they are available to
the public (e.g.. hardcopy reports, public
use tapes, online, tabulations upon
request), the period of time for which
they will remain available in each form.
and the name, address, and telephone
number of the office within the issuing
agency to which inquiries may be
directed.
  d. Agencies should provide for the
prompt release of public-use data files
 that enable analysts outside the
 sponsoring agency to reproduce and
 verify the sponsoring agency's results.
 test alternative hypotheses, and develop
 alternative interpretations. If survey
 plans submitted to OMB included the
 preparation of public-use data files (see
 Attachment A, Section 2.j.(3]), the
 sponsoring agency should release these
 files no later than 90 days after the
 sponsoring agency's first  published
 reports (except for preliminary summary
 tabulations) based on survey data. If
 such files are not available when the
 first reports are issued, the reports
 should contain a notice regarding their
 forthcoming availability.
   3. Use of standard statistical
 classifications and definitions. Agencies
 should use the standard classifications
 and definitions aet forth in Attachment F
 when publishing statistics for which
 there are such standards. When
• reporting statistics for which there are
 no such standards, the classifications
 and definitions used should support the
 broadest possible range of analytical
 uses of the data. Publications should
 explain all standard classifications and
 definitions that are used and provide
 appropnate references.
   4. Presentation of statistics The
 following guidelines apply to the
 presentation of statistical data in
 publications.
   a. Data tables, charts, and graphs.
 Tables, charts, and graphs should be
 designed and labeled so that their
 meaning is clear and unambiguous. The
 publication should include an
 explanation of all technical terms and
 the definitions of all categorizations or
 appropriate references for them. Any
 term whose usage differs  from common
 usage or might otherwise  be .
 misconstrued should be clearly defined.
 Labels should be properly aligned-
 groups clearly separated,  and all group
 totals included. Labels for subgroups
 should be sufficiently indented to ensure
 that relationships among the categories
 are clear. If all subcategones are not
 displayed, there should be an
 explanation of what has been omitted. If
 tables contain percentages, the
 population totals that are needed to
 reproduce the numbers on which the
 percentages are based should be
 reported.
   b. Complete presentation.
   (1) Any publication that contains data
 tables based on sample surveys should
 also report estimates of standard
 deviations or variances. Variances and
 standard deviations should be directly
 measured from the sample whenever
 possible.  If generalized variances or
 other approximations to the variances

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Federal  Register /  Vol. 53. No. 12 / Wednesday.  January 20. 1988 / Notices
are used in the publication, the
publication should clearly inform users
that the variance estimates are
approximations and statistics that rely
on these variances may be inaccurate.
The publication should fully describe
the methods used to estimate variances.
  (2) To enable users to evaluate further
the reliability of estimates, the agency
issuing the publication should publish.
or offer and be prepared to provide upon
request, the actual number of
observations in each published table
cell.
  (3] To enable users to discern the
extent and impact of imputation,
agencies should identify imputed data
items with separate codes when they
publish unsummarized data (as in
public-use data files). When they
publish summarized data, agencies
should report the percentage of
observations that are imputed for each
variable included in the summary and
should indicate (by code or other
means] the percentage of data items that
are imputed in each published table cell.
  c. Discussion of findings. The
evidence to support conclusions and
statements about causes and effects
should be presented in full in the
publication. Inferences about
differences and changes should be
based upon generally accepted
statistical  techniques, which should be
identified and described in the
publication.
  d. Preliminary and revised estimates.
Any data or reports that are released
prior to final editing, compilation, or
correction should be clearly labeled as
preliminary. The release should explain
the limitations of the preliminary
estimates, describe (he nature of furore
corrections, and provide the scheduled
dates for the publication of revisions.
When revised data are published, the
quantitative difference between the
preliminary and revised data should be
shown, the revision process described,
and the effects of the revisions on the
interpretation of the data explained.
  5. Documentation. All publications of
results of a statistical surveyor study
should include documentation that
describes  the purpose of and the
procedures for conducting the survey or
study and the quality and limitations of
the results. For reports that are part of a
regular series, the required
documentation may be published
separately but should be kept
completely current and accurate. For
one-time surveys or studies and for the
first publication in a series, the
documentation should be available  at
the same time as the publication. Public*
use data files should provide the
documentation both in paper form and
                      as part of the file. The documentation
                      should cover:
                        a. The purpose of the study.
                        b. A description of the study design.
                      The documentation should explain the
                      rationale for the study design and how
                      the study was conducted. The
                      description should be sufficiently
                      detailed to serve most needs of the
                      pnncipal users of the publication and to
                      ensure that all users are alerted to
                      aspects of the study design that affect
                      the interpretation of results. It should
                      include a brief account of the outcome
                      of the quality control procedures used.
                      The publication should refer the user to
                      the complete documentation of methods
                      and procedures that the sponsoring
                      agency maintains in accordance with
                      Attachment D of this Circular.
                        c. The sources of all statistical data
                      used in the study. The documentation
                      should clearly identify data that were
                      collected through different surveys or
                      from different administrative record
                      systems and describe how such data
                      were changed through editing and
                      imputation. The documentation should
                      clearly identify constructed and
                      estimated variables and describe the
                      methods used to construct composite
                     • variables and the models or statistical
                      procedures used to develop estimates. If
                      data have been subjected to aggregate
                      adjustments, such as benchmarking or
                      seasonal adjustment this should be
                      clearly noted and the adjustment
                      methods described.
                        d. A discussion of the limitations of
                      the survey or study results. Sufficient
                      information should be presented to
                      enable the user to judge the accuracy of
                      the reported results of the study and the
                      extent to which the results can be
                      extrapolated or generalized to other
                      populations or circumstances.
                        6. Review of publications. Before
                      releasing any publication, the agency
                      should review it to ensure that it clearly
                      and correctly presents information and
                      that it complies with the standards in
                      this Circular. Agencies that regularly
                      issue statistical publications should
                      establish a formal review process with
                      written procedures and specific
                      assignments of responsibility. The
                      process should provide for independent
                      review of each publication by at least
                      one competent professional who was
                      not involved in the preparation of the
                      publication or the survey or study on
                      which it is based.
                        7. Assistance to users. All
                      publications should contain the name.
                      address, and telephone number of an
                      office within the agency issuing the
                      publication that may be contacted for
                      further information or assistance. The
                      documentation of public-use files should
indicate what user services are
available for the file and what period of
time such services will remain available.

ATTACHMENT D—Circular No. A-	

Documentation of Methods and
Procedures

  1. Agencies that regularly publish
statistics should maintain complete and
current documentation of all methods
and procedures used to produce these
estimates. This documentation should
be publicly available in its entirety and
therefore should not contain any
information that the agency considers to
be exempt from disclosure under the
Freedom of Information Act (5 U.S.C.
552). The documentation should include.
but is not limited to. the areas detailed
in this attachment.
  2. Surveys. Agencies that sponsor
statistical surveys should maintain for
each survey a file documenting the
survey design and the operations used
to collect process, and publish data
from the survey. The file should be
maintained until the survey is no longer
being conducted and demand for the
data no longer exists.
  The documentation  file should
Include:
  a. Descriptions of: the target
population: the sampling frame:  the
correspondence between the target
population and the sampling frame; the
sample design: collection methods.
locations, and dates; follow-up
procedures; the methods used to edit
and tabulate survey data; any
imputation and adjustment procedures
applied to survey data; and the
procedures used to control the quality of
survey operations.
  b. Copies of the forms used in the
survey, including the survey
questionnaire and the instructions to
both respondents and interviewers;
  c. The performance  statistics,  such as
those presented in Attachment A.
Section 2.g. of this Circular, that the
sponsoring agency, its contractors, or its
grantees have used for management and
evaluation of the survey: and
  d. The results of any evaluations of
survey operations and data, including
quality control audits.
  3. AH imputation procedures, coding
procedures, and procedures used to
adjust data acquired through surveys or
administrative records. The
documentation of such procedures.
Including benchmarking, revision, and
seasonal adjustment procedures, should
be complete enough to enable a
competent professional from outside the
agency to duplicate the procedures and
results.

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                  Federal Register / Vol. 53. No. 12  / Wednesday.  January  20,  1988 / Notices	1549
  t. Models The documentation of
 models used to generate estimates
 should be complete enough to enable a
 competent professional from outside the
 agency to use the model and duplicate
 the sponsoring agency's results. Model
 documentation should include the
 following: a model specification; a
 summary of the purpose of the model.
 including its principles, structure, and
 assumptions: a complete mathematical
 statement of the model; a description of
 any data base used with the model; a
 descnption of the validation.
 verification, and audit record associated
 with the model; and the results of using
 the model, including both the raw
 outputs and analysis based on those'
 outputs.
  If the documentation is for a computer
 model, it should also include a user's
 guide explaining how to run the model.
  5. The procedures used to generate
 statistical estimates that are required
 by statute or by this Circular to be used
 by Federal agencies in making
 determinations about the benefits,
 obligations, privileges, or rights of
specific individuals or entities.
 Complete, current documentation of all
 procedures, including specific
assumptions and decision rules, should
be available in published form at the
 time such estimates are released. All
 statistical estimates used in making such
 determinations should themselves be
 published.

 ATTACHMENT E—Circular No. A-	

 Compilation. Release, and Evaluation of
Principal Federal Economic Indicators
  1. This attachment replaces Statistical
 Policy Directive No. 3. "Compilation.
Release and Evaluabon of Principal
Federal Economic Indicators." which '
this Circular rescinds.
  2. Agencies that publish statistical
estimates that have been designated by
 the Director of OMB as principal Federal
economic indicators should follow the
procedures prescribed in this
attachment for the compilation, release,
and evaluation of these estimates.
  3. Designation of Principal Indicators.
The Director of OMB shall determine,
after consultation with the affected
Federal agencies, the statistics and
estimates to be designated as principal
Federal economic indicators and
covered by this attachment to the
Circular. At the beginning of each
calendar year, OMB will publish the list
of indicators covered and the scheduled
dates  for  release of each indicator
during the year.
  4. Prompt Release. The interval
between the end of the period to which
the statistics refer and the date when
 the data or estimates are released to the
 public should be as short as practicable.
 Agencies should compile and release
 series that are issued quarterly or more
 frequently within 22 working days of the
 end of the reference period.
  5. Release Schedule. The releasing
 agency is responsible for ensuring that
 the interested public is aware of the
 release time and date. The last report of
 each calendar year should contain the
 time and date of all reports in the
 upcoming  year. In addition, each release
 should include an announcement of the
 time and date of the next release. The
 releasing agency shall provide a
 schedule of releases for the upcoming
 calendar year to the Statistical Policy
 Office. Office of Information and
 Regulatory Affairs, OMB, by November
 30th of each year. Changes in the release
 schedule may occur only if special.
 unforeseen circumstances arise. The
 releasing agency should  announce and
 fully explain any schedule changes as
 soon as it has determined they are
 unavoidable.
  There should be one office in the
 agency that can provide  the release
 schedule of all the agency's principal
 economic indicators. The name, address,
 and telephone number of this office
 should be  readily available to the
 public. Agencies should establish and
 maintain no more than two specific
 times of day for the release of their
 principal economic indicators and
 should only release indicators at such
 designated times.
  ft. Announcement of Changes.
 Agencies should announce any planned
 change in data collection, analysis, or
 estimation methods that  may affect the
 interpretation of a principal economic
 indicator as far in advance of the change
 as possible. The agency should include
the  announcement in a regular report of
 the  economic indicator. When possible,
 a period for public comment should be
 provided between the announcement of
 an intended change and its
implementation. At a minimum, for
 quarterly and monthly series, the agency
should announce the change at least
 three reports before the first report
affected by the change. For weekly  and
annual series, the announcement should
precede the first report affected by the
change by at least three months, tn  the
first report affected by the change, the
agency should include a complete
description of the change and its impact.
  Agencies should fully explain
unforeseeable changes due to special
circumstances «s soon as they are
known and in the first report affected by
the  change.
  7. Release Procedure. The statistical
agency that produces each principal
 economic indicator should issue it in a
 press release or other printed report.
 The agency should issue a press release
 where this will significantly speed up
 the dissemination of data to the public.
  Each statistical agency 19 responsible
 for establishing procedures to ensure
 that there is no premature release of
 information or data estimates during the
 time required for preparation of the
 public report. This includes the
 protection of public-use data banks.
 which should not receive any data or
 estimates until they are officially
 released. As soon as copies of materials
 for public release have been prepared.
 the agency should physically secure
 them.
  Except for the authorized distribution
 described in this section, agencies
 should ensure that no information or
 data estimates are released before the
 official release time.
  The agency shall provide prerelease
 information to the President,  through the
 Chairman of the Council of Economic
 Advisers, as soon as it is available. The
 agency should grant prerelease access
 to others only under the following
 conditions:
  a. The agency head has established
 whatever security arrangements,  and
 imposed whatever conditions on the
 granting of access, that are necessary  to
 prevent unauthorized dissemination or
 use.
  b. The agency head will ensure that
 any person granted access has been
 fully informed of, and has agreed to.
 these conditions.
  c. Any prerelease of information
 under an embargo will not precede the
 official release time by more than 30
 minutes.
  d. In ail cases, prerelease access will
 precede the official release time only to
 the extent necessary for an orderly
 review of the data.
  All employees of the Executive
 Branch who receive prerelease
 distribution of information and data
 estimates  as authorized above are
 responsible for ensuring that no release
 occurs prior to the official release time.
 Except for members of the staff of the
 agency issuing the principal economic
 indicator who have been designated by
 the agency head to provide technical
explanations of the data, employees of
 the Executive Branch should not
comment publicly on the data until at
least one hour after the official release
 time.
  8. Preliminary Estimates and
Revisions. Deciding when to release a
principal economic indicator requires
the balancing of accuracy and
timeliness. Agencies should not

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Federal  Register / Vol. 53. No. 12 / Wednesday, [anuary 20. 1988 / Notices
withhold information needed to evaluate
current economic conditions by
imposing unnecessarily stringent
accuracy requirements on preliminary
estimates. They should, however, fully
inform the public of the degree of
inaccuracy that is accepted to
accommodate timely release.
  In the case of estimates based on
probability samples, agencies should
publish measures of uncertainty based
on the sampling variance and
consideration of nonsampling errors,
e.g., a root-mean-square error estimate
or its equivalent. In cases where the
confidence interval about any single
point estimate cannot be estimated.
results should be presented only in the
form of an interval estimate. Methods
used to estimate upper and lower bound
values that define the interval estimate
should be designed to meet three
objectives: (1) Preliminary  interval
estimates should include the final point
estimate with high probability; (2) the
width of the interval should be
consistent with the error history of the
indicator being estimated: and (3) the
bound values should be consistent with.
any confidence intervals that can be
estimated for components of the
indicator.
  For either point or interval  estimates,
agencies shall apply the following
guidelines when issuing and evaluating
preliminary data and revisions:
  a. Agencies should clearly identify
estimates as preliminary or revised;
  b. If the difference between
preliminary and final aggregate
estimates, or the width of a preliminary
interval estimate, is large relative to
average pehod-to-period differences, the
agency should either take steps to
improve the accuracy of preliminary
estimates or delay the release of
estimates until a reliable estimate can
be made:
  c. If preliminary estimates show signs
of a consistent bias (for example, if
revisions are consistently in the same
direction), the agency should take steps
to eliminate this bias;
  d. Revisions occurring for routine
reasons, such as benchmarking and
updating of seasonality factors, should
be consolidated and released
simultaneously;
  e. Agencies should release routine
revisions of a principal economic
indicator only as part of the regular
reporting schedule; and
  f. Revisions occurring for other than
routine reasons should be fully
explained and should be released as
soon as adjustments can be completed.
  9. Granting of Exceptions. Prior to
taking any action that may be contrary
to the provisions of Attachment E, the
                      head of a releasing agency shall consult
                      with the Director of OMB. If the Director
                      determines that the action is contrary to
                      the provisions of this attachment, the
                      head of the agency may apply for an
                      exception. Any agency requesting an
                      exception shall demonstrate that the
                      proposed exception is necessary and
                      consistent with the purposes of the
                      Circular.
                        10. Performance Evaluation.  Each
                      agency that issues a principal Federal
                      economic indicator shall submit a
                      performance evaluation of that indicator
                      to the Statistical Policy Office.  Office of
                      Information and Regulatory Affairs,
                      OMB. every three years. A schedule for
                      the performance evaluation of  data
                      series or estimates designated  as
                      principal Federal economic indicators
                      will be prepared by the Statistical Policy
                      Office. The evaluation shall address the
                      following issues:
                        a. The accuracy and reliability of the
                      series, e.g., the magnitude and  direction
                      of all revisions, the performance of the
                      series relative to established
                      benchmarks, and the proportion and
                      effect of nonresponses or responses
                      received after the publication of
                      preliminary estimates;
                        b. The accuracy, completeness, and
                      accessibility of documentation
                      describing the methods used in
                      compiling and revising the indicator.
                        c. The agency's performance in
                      meeting the designated release schedule
                      and the prompt release objective of this
                      Circular;
                        d The agency's ability to avoid
                      disclosure prior to the scheduled release
                      time; and
                        e. Any additional issues that the
                      Director may specify in writing to the
                      agency at least 6 months in advance of
                      the scheduled submission date.
                        The Director will review the
                      evaluation  to determine whether the
                      indicator is prepared and published in
                      conformity with all OMB statistical
                      policies, standards, and guidelines. OMB
                      will include a summary of the year's
                      evaluations and their reviews in the
                      annual report to Congress required by 44
                      U.S.C. 3514.

                      ATTACHMENT F—Circular No. A-	

                      Use of Standard Classifications, Data
                      Sources, and Definitions
                        1. This attachment replaces guidance
                      on the use of standard classifications,
                     ' data sources, and definitions previously
                      contained in Statistical Policy Directives
                      5-17 and in the directive on
                      "Comparability of Statistics on Business
                      Size" (47 FR 21382, May 18.1982). all of
                      which this Circular rescinds. Nine of the
                      standards established in  these directives
are retained in the Circular. Five others
have been discontinued as government-
wide statistical standards, either
because they have not proven useful for
the statistical purposes intended or
because they are used by only one or
two agencies in collecting and
publishing statistics and can effectively
be maintained by these agencies. The
discontinued standards are a standard
reference base period for Federal
government general-purpose index
numbers; standard Federal
administrative regions; the standard
industrial classification of enterprises;
the standard classification of fields of
science and engineering; and the
standard gas pressure base.
  2. Agencies should use standard
statistical classifications, data sources.
and definitions for the purposes and in
the manner specified in this section.
  a. Metropolitan Statistical Areas
  All agencies that conduct statistical
programs to collect and publish data for
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)
should use the most recent definitions of
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
established by the Office of
Management and Budget.
  OMB establishes and maintains the
definitions of Metropolitan Statistical
Areas solely for statistical purposes. In
periodically reviewing and revising the
MSA definitions, OMB does not take
into account or attempt to anticipate any
nonstatistical uses that may be made of
the definitions, nor will OMB modify the
definitions to meet the requirements of
any nonstatistical program.
  Therefore, if an agency uses the MSA
definitions in a nonstatistical program, it
is that agency's responsibility to ensure
that the definitions are appropriate for
such use. In cases where an agency is
publishing for comment a proposed
regulation that would use the MSA
definitions for a nonstatistical purpose,
the agency should seek public comment
on the proposed use of the MSA
definitions. Agencies that use the MSA
definitions in a nonstatistical program
may modify the MSA definitions,
exclusively for  the purposes of that
program. However, in order to avoid
confusion with the standard statistical
definitions, all such  modifications
should be clearly identified as
deviations from the OMB standard
definitions of Metropolitan Statistical
Areas.
  b. Standard Industrial Classification
  All agencies that conduct statistical
programs to collect and publish
establishment data by industry type
should use the Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC), as published in the

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                  Federal Register / Vol. 53. No. 12 / Wednesday. January  20. 1988 / Notices
                                                                         1551
most recent edition of the Standard
Industrial Classification Manual
  OMB establishes and maintains the
Standard Industrial Classification solely
for statistical purposes. In periodically
reviewing and revising the SIC. OMB
does not take into account or attempt to
anticipate any nonstatistical uses that
may be made of the classification, nor
will OMB modify the classification to
meet the requirements of any
nonstatistical program.
  Therefore, if an agency uses the SIC in
a nonstatistical program, it is that
agency's responsibility to ensure that
the classification is appropriate for such
use. In cases where an agency is
publishing for comment a proposed
regulation that would use the SIC for a
nonstatistical purpose, the agency
should seek public comment on the
proposed  use of the SIC. Agencies that
use the SIC in a nonstatistical program
may modify the SIC, exclusively for the
purposes of that program. However,  in
order to avoid confusion with the
standard statistical classification, all'
such modifications should be clearly
identified as deviations from the
Standard  Industrial Classification.
  Any agency requesting or requiring an
establishment to provide its  SIC code as
part of an information collection shall
clearly identify within the information
collection instrument or its directions
•the name, address, and telephone
number of a unit within that agency that
will assist respondents in determining
their appropriate SIC code. When
submitting any such information
collection request to OMB for clearance,
the agency shall disclose any
modifications it has made in the SIC for
the purposes of any nonstatistical
program of which the information
collection is a part and shall
demonstrate that it has sufficient and  .
appropriately-trained personnel to assist
its respondents in determining their SIC
codes.
   c. Standard Occupational
Classification
   All agencies that conduct  statistical
programs to collect and  publish data by
occupation should use the Standard
Occupational Classification (SOC), as
published in the most recent edition of
the Standard Occupational
Classification Manual.
   OMB establishes and  maintains the
Standard Occupational Classification
solely for statistical purposes. In
periodically reviewing and revising the
SOC. OMB does not take into account or
attempt to anticipate any nonstatistical
uses that may be made of the
classification, nor will OMB modify the
classification to meet the requirements
of any nonstatistical program.
  Therefore, if an agency uses the SOC
in a nonstatisticai program, it is that
agency's responsibility to ensure that
the classification is appropriate for such
use. In cases where an agency is
publishing for comment a proposed
regulation that would use the SOC for a
nonstatistical purpose, the agency
should seek public comment on the
proposed use of the SOC. Agencies that
use the SOC in a nonstatislical program
may modify the SOC. exclusively for the
purposes of that program. However, in
order to avoid confusion with the
standard statistical classification, all
such modifications should be clearly
identified as deviations from the
Standard Occupational Classification.
  Any agency requesting or requiring
respondents to provide SOC codes as
part of an information collection shall
clearly identify within the information
collection instrument or its directions
the name, address, and telephone
number of a unit within that agency that
will assist respondents in determining
their appropriate SOC codes. When
submitting any such information
collection request to  OMB for clearance.
the agency shall disclose any
modifications it  has made in the SOC for
the purposes of any nonstatistical
program of which the information
collection is a part and shall
demonstrate that it has sufficient and
appropriately-trained personnel to assist
its respondents in determining their SOC
codes.
  d. Standard Business Size Categories
  When publishing statistics, agencies
should use the size categories in the
table below to classify reporting
businesses by number of employees,
revenues, or assets. Tabulations based
on these categories should  be
accompanied by precise definitions of
the variables used to measure size and
of the type of reporting unit tabulated.

       BUSINESS SIZE CATEGORIES
          [Revenues or asset* (dollars)]
$25.000 	
$50.000 	
$100.000 	
$250000 	
$500.000 	
$1 million 	
$2.5 million 	
$5 million 	
$10 million ..._ 	
$25 million 	
$50 million 	
$100 million 	
$250 million .:.. . .
$500 million 	
$1 billion 	
$2.5 billion 	
$5 billion 	
under ....
under..
under . ..
under . ..
under . ..
under . ..
under ..
under...
under ...
under 	
under ....
under ....
under ...
under ..
under ...
under ..
under .
or more
. $25.000.
. $50.000.
. $100.000
. $250.000.
$500,000.
$1 million.
$2.5 million
$5 million.
$10 million
$25 million.
$50 million.
$100 million
. $250 million
. S500 million
. $1 billion.
$2.5 billion.
$5 billion
      BUSINESS SIZE CATEGORIES
       (Employment (number 
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Federal  Register / Vol. 53. No. 12 / Wednesday, January 20. 1988 / Notices
  g. Standard Source of Labor Force and
Unemployment Estimates for Use in the
Administration of Federal Programs
  Agencies that are required by law to
allocate Federal funds or determine
eligibility for participation in a Federal
program on the basis of the employment.
unemployment, or labor force
participation levels or rates in the
population or any subgroups of the
population of Stale, county, or local
units of government, should use—to the
extent permitted by law—the most
current estimates published by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics that are
available for all units of the relevant
levels of government.
  h. Definition of Poverty
  Agencies that are required by law to
use the definition of poverty established
by the Office of Management and
Budget,  and agencies that publish
statistical estimates of the number or
persons, families, or households in
poverty, should continue to use as the
definition of poverty the annual income
thresholds that for 1986 and prior years
have been published by the Bureau of
the Census in its Current Population
Reports, P-60 series. For 1987 and
subsequent years, the definition of
poverty shall be the 1986 thresholds
                      adjusted annually by the year-over-year
                      change in the Consumer Price Index for
                      all urban consumers.
                        i. Racial and Ethnic Categories
                        To the extent permitted by law.
                      agencies should use the following
                      categories for all purposes that require
                      classifying people by racial and/or
                      ethnic background. A person's racial
                      and/or ethnic background is determined
                      by the way in which the person chooses
                      to be identified in his/her community.
                      Racial Categories:
                        American Indian or Alaska Native
                        Asian or Pacific Islander
                        Black
                        White
                        In establishing reporting systems and
                      collecting data, agencies should permit
                      individuals to identify themselves as
                      "other" if they believe they do not fall
                      into any of the categories listed above.
                        Ethnic Categories:
                        Hispanic
                        Not of Hispanic origin
                        Agencies may use other, more
                      detailed categories as long as such
                      categories can be aggregated into the
                      basic categories listed in this  section.
ATTACHMENT G—Circular No. A-	

Provision of Statistical Information to
International Organizations
  1. This attachment replaces Statistical
Policy Directive No. 18. "Providing of
Statistical Information to International
Organizations." which this Circular
rescinds.
  2. In accordance with Section 1 of
Executive Order 10033 of February 8.
1949. as amended (see 22 USCA 286f).
the Director of OMB will determine.
with the concurrence of the Secretary of
State, what statistical information shall
be provided in response to official
requests received by the United States
Government from any international
organization of which the United  States
is a member,  and will determine which
agency or agencies shall prepare  the
statistical information to be provided.
Agencies that have not been previously
designated by the Director to prepare
such information shall notify the
Director and  receive his concurrence
before compiling or providing any
statistical information for publication or
use by any international organization of
which (he 'Jnited States is a member.
[FR Doc. B8-fl96 Filed 1-19-88, 8.45 am]
BILLING CODE 1110-01-M

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SESSION:  Biological/Human Sampling
TITLE:    Pharmacokinetic Modeling Using SAAM — A Tool for Simulation and
          Model Fitting
AUTHOR:  Bernard Most, Northrup Services,  Inc.
     Directly from  its definition, pharmacokinetics  (PK), is  of interest to  the
researcher studying health  effects  related  to environmental exposures.  Compart-
mental modeling is  a means of studying approximate PK by considering a  finite
number of macroscopic sub-systems deemed relevant to elucidate the health
effect  under study.  SAAM is a computer tool for:
        analyzing compartmental models given  the  model  parameters and
        estimating  model parameters given experimental data.
The session will introduce SAAM and present an  illustrative example, from
practice, of each use:
        simulation  of a  proposed model  for the effect  of  transient CO exposure
        on blood COHb  levels and
        modeling absorption  of nickel in drinking water.
                                      23

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SESSION:  Biological/Human Sampling
TITLE:    Considerations In  Measuring Blologicals In  Human Populations
AUTHOR:  Cheryl Slegel  Scott. Exposure Evaluation Division,  Office of Toxic
          Substances
     Abstract not available.
                                      24

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SESSION:  Biological/Human Sampling
TITLE:    Blomarkers:  Promise and Practice
AUTHOR:  John Fowle III,  Office of Health Research. Office of Research and
          Development
     Biomarkers offer great promise for linking exposure  to dose, and  dose  to
disease due to their capabilities  for specificity, sensitivity,  rapid analysis, and
low cost.   This  promise  has only been met  for  a  few markers, such as those for
lead,  carbon monoxide, and  organophosphate pesticides.   In these cases,  extensive
characterization work was required to  validate  the markers with  respect to
specificity,  sensitivity, population variation, etc., before  they could be applied
with confidence for regulatory purposes.  To avoid the possibility that data from
poorly characterized  markers may  be applied to Agency decision-making, with
adverse consequences such as those which  occurred  at Love Canal, ORD  has
initiated a Biomarker Program to  define issues  surrounding the use of biomarkers.
to coordinate  efforts across the  Agency and between EPA and other Agencies,
and to develop science policies for their  application at EPA.   The current and
future efforts of this program will  be  discussed.
                                      25

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SESSION   Graphics
TITLE:    Expert Systems  to  Assist In Decisions Concerning Land  Disposal of
          Hazardous  Wastes
AUTHOR:  Daniel G. Greathouse, Hazardous Waste Engineering  Research
          Laboratory, Cincinnati, Office  of Research  and Development
     In FY 1984, the Hazardous  Waste Engineering Research Laboratory success-
fully developed  a small  proof-of-concept expert system to assist  in interpretation
of chemical immersion test (EPA Method  9090)  data for  PVC liner  materials.
This was  the  beginning  of an  orderly progression of efforts to assess  the
feasibility of  using expert systems  to assist in permit reviews for hazardous
waste land disposal sites.  Permit review decision areas amenable  to expert
system applications have been identified  and several systems are in various
stages  of development and testing.   The  rationale for this approach to provide
decision  support aids for permit review include the complexity of the  required
engineering evaluations; availability of extensive relevant research results  and
known  subject-specific  specialists (experts); concern that permit reviewers do not
have all the  required expertise  and that they have  little, if  any,  access  to
subject-specific regulatory policy and research  information; and concern that
decisions  may not be consistent among  reviewers or  with  EPA regulations and
policies.   The decision  areas  selected for expert system development and  the
progress on the ongoing development efforts will be  presented.
                                      26

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SESSION:  Bioassay and Toxlclty Measurements
TITLE:    Sources of Variability in Laboratory Animal Carclnogeniclty Studies
AUTHOR:  Joseph K. Haseman, National Institute for Environmental  and Health
          Sciences
     In the absence of adequate  epidemiological data, laboratory animal car-
cinogenicity studies,  such as those carried out by the National  Toxicology
Program (NTP), remain the most definitive means  of  assessing  the carcinogenic
potential  of chemicals for humans.   The NTP studies also  provide a  large data
base of similarly-designed experiments,  which can be examined retrospectively to
evaluate  possible sources of variability  in tumor incidence,  and the impact that
these factors  may have  on the interpretation of study results.  Various sources
of variability are examined, including factors related to intra-study variability
(e.g., animal room environment, littermates,  gross tissue examination and
preparation of slides,  histopathology diagnosis, food consumption/weight gain) as
well as those associated with inter-study variability (e.g., lab-to-lab  variability,
time-related trends, animal  supplies, dietary effects, genetic drift).  Recommenda-
tions are  given regarding how  the possible confounding effects of certain of
these sources of variability can  be  reduced or  eliminated.
                                       27

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SESSION:  The  Group Depth (Focus Group) Interview
TITLE:    The  Group Depth Interview:  An Unstructured  Approach for Collecting
          In-Depth Survey Information on Attitudes and Motivations
AUTHOR:  Alfred E. Goldman, National Analysts Division, Booz  Allen  &
          Hamilton Inc.
     This introduction to the Group Depth,  or  Focus Group, Interview  will center
on its appropriate use in the armamentarium of the survey research specialist.
Topics covered will be when and  why it is  used, its assets and liabilities,  its
theoretical rationale, and selected moderating  techniques.
                                      28

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SESSION:  Human Exposure Monitoring

TITLE:    New Directions of  Exposure Monitoring

AUTHOR:  John D. Spengler,  Professor of Environmental Health, Harvard  School
          of Public Health
     Abstract not available.
                                      29

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SESSION:  Guide to EPA Information  Center Services  for Statisticians
TITLE:    Guide to EPA Information  Center Services  for Statisticians
AUTHOR:  Denny Daniel, Manager,  Technical Center,  Washington Information
          Center
     This session will provide an  explanation  of the  Washington Information
Center Services using a video presentation.  There will also be a discussion  of
the Information Center Services  available in the regional offices and some of  the
labs and the contact points there.
                                       30

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SESSION:  Guide to EPA Information  Center Services  for Statisticians
TITLE:    In-House Graphics
AUTHOR:  Nancy Sneath, Washington Information Center Consultant
     Graphics are playing an increasingly important role  in EPA's  assimilation  of
statistical data.   Organizing facts and  figures in an easy to understand manner  is
not an easy  task.  The  Washington Information Center (WIC). however,  is
available to  help  statisticians understand and select graphics  hardware and
software to create their own charts  or  presentation materials.

     The focus of this session will be  "In-House Graphics"; what graphics can
"YOU" generate sitting at  your desk.  Topics will include:  tips for selecting
software programs, output devices,  speed considerations,  color, costs,  and
services  available from  WIC.
                                       31

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SESSION:  Spatial Statistics
TITLE:    Geostatlstlcal Software:  Practical Applications
AUTHORS: Evan J. Englund and  George Flatman. Environmental Monitoring
          Systems Laboratory, Las  Vegas
     The  "practical application of geostatistics to environmental problems" often
boils  down to "making a  better contour map."  A step-by-step  geostatistical
analysis of a sample data set illustrates  the use of recently  developed geostatis-
tical  software for variogram computation  and modeling,  kriging,  and contouring.

     The  sample data set used in the example was drawn  from  a  completely
known 2-D data set, which allows us to  compare the kriged  estimates  to  the true
values.   We can also look at estimators other  then kriging (e.g., a simple
unweighted moving average) and  ask  whether kriging is in fact the better
estimator  it is claimed  to be.  This leads us to  the  question  of what  criteria  to
use to measure  the quality of a spatial estimator.  Several criteria proposed for
ongoing comparison studies will be presented and discussed.
                                    NOTICE
     Although the research described in this  article has been supported  by the
United States Environmental Protection  Agency.  It  has not been subjected to
Agency  review and,  therefore,  does not  necessarily  reflect the  views of the
Agency  and no official endorsement should  be inferred.
                                      32

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Forest Effects of Acid Deposition:  An Epidemlological Approach to
          Data Representation  Graphics  and Exploratory Data Integration  of
          Ecological Information
AUTHORS: Ruth H.  Allen, Office of  Acid  Deposition, Environmental Monitoring,
          and Quality  Assurance, Office of Research and Development, J.  Jacob
          Wind, American Management Systems, and Ronald  W. Matheny, Office
          of Research Program  Managment. Office of Research and Development
     This poster illustrates innovative data representation graphics we used to
explore and analyze data  collected under the Acid Deposition and Atmospheric
Research Division program on Forest Responses to Anthrogenic Stress (FORAST)
(Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1985).  Text slides cover  a retrospective view of
the history of  the  project,  the  original structure of the data, and the  final
structure  of the  data  base.  Graphs illustrate  innovative  uses of the  data.
Lessons drawn  from peer reviews,  case studies,  and hindsight form the basis for
conclusions about the  role  of statistics and  a  systems approach  in the explor-
atory data integration of ecological information.
                                      33

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Appropriate LC50 Statistics for  Effluent Toxlclty Analysis
AUTHORS: M. Bastlan, P. Koska.  T.  Vinson, and C. Young. Surveillance Branch.
          Region VI  (Presenter:   Jim Stiebing, Chief, Surveillance Branch. Region
          VI)
     Whole  effluent toxicity testing is a  primary monitoring  tool for water
quality-based permit compliance.  Compliance test methodologies must be  clear
and  specific so  that- evaluation  of permit compliance is not clouded by issues of
data interpretation.  In this light,  the number of statistical procedures (six)
discussed in Methods for Measuring the Acute  Toxicity of Freshwater and Marine
Organisms is a  problem  because  it requires choice among  statistical procedures
which may or may  not  be  comparable.

     The purpose of this study  was to evaluate the practical utility of some  of
the common LC50 statistics recommended  in the  acute toxicity  testing manual.
We chose the Moving Average  Angle (MAA), Probit.  and Binomial procedures
because  programs for these statistics are available on floppy disk  from  the
Environmental Monitoring and  Support Laboratory in Cincinnati  (MOVING.BAS.
LCVALUES.BAS, TOXDAT).  The specific study objectives were to:

  (1)  describe  the data characteristics  of the effluent toxicity tests conducted
       in the Regional  laboratory,

  (2)  determine if the data  requirements of the statistical  programs were well
       matched  with the data  characteristics of  the tests, and

  (3)  determine if LC50s calculated by  the different methods  varied  by a
       significant amount.

     Results of  this study reaffirmed previous observations that effluent  toxicity
is frequently an "all or nothing" response.  The  data requirements for  the MAA
method were often  met  while  those  for Probit analysis were not, although this
issue is  confounded by  some differences  in  the data requirements among the
                                      34

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statistical  programs.  The LCSOs calculated for  a single data  set by  the  three
statistics were similar; in 20 tests the maximum difference  was 11%  effluent and
in 10 of those tests the  LC50 varied by less that 4%.  Based on the results of
this  study,  it is  recommended that the MAA method with  one  set of  data
requirements be identified as the  preferred LC50 statistic for permits compliance
evaluation.   This  recommendation  is limited  to consideration of statistics
discussed in the  acute  manual and those  that can be calculated by readily
available personal computer programs.
                                      35

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 SESSION:   Poster  Session
 TITLE:     Regional  Surface Water  Quality  Characteristics of Nebraska
 AUTHOR:   Norman H. Crisp.  Environmental Services Division.  Region  VII
           (Presenter:  Thomas T.  Holloway.  Chief, Water  Monitoring Section.
           Environmental Services  Division, Region VII)
     The ability to identify regional differences in water quality characteristics
 provides resource managers with an important tool.   This information can  be
 used to  develop  cost-effective monitoring networks, set regional water  quality
 standards, and identify areas of .non-conformity where remedial actions  may be
 needed.

     Water quality data from  69 ambient monitoring stations in Nebraska were
 evaluated  for regional  patterns  using  the multivariate  procedures of principal
 component analysis  and cluster  analysis.

     Principal component analysis reduced the data set of nine parameters to
 three components:  ionic strength, runoff, and nitrogen.  These three principal
 components explained 80 percent of  the variation  in  the original data set.
 Clustering  of the median values of the principal components resulted in good
 spacial  correspondence between  water  quality characteristics, as measured  by  the
 principal components and the  Soil Conservation Service Land Resource Areas.

     Management implications  of these  defined regional characteristics are
 significant.  The results of the  principal component analysis suggest that
parameter  coverage, and hence cost, can  be  reduced without loss of the  informa-
tion content at  the  monitoring locations.  Based on cluster analysis, decisions on
the extent of the monitoring  network which  is needed and the  direction  of water
pollution control activities  toward areas  with a typical water quality character-
istics can  be logically made.
                                      36

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Guide to EPA Information Center  Services for Statisticians
AUTHOR:  Denny Daniel, Manager,  Technical Center, Washington  Information
          Center
     With the influx of  Personal Computers (PCs)  in  the  Agency, there is  an
increased need for assistance  and  support on this equipment.  Most regional
offices and  many  labs have  set up Information Centers to assist the PC user
with installation,  training, and support.   This exhibit will illustrate these support
services  available from  local Information  Centers.  There  will be people available
to answer your  specific  questions  about  the computer hardware and software or
general questions  about automating your  office.
                                       37

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Chlorinated Paraffins:  A  Report  on the Findings from Two Field
          Studies at Sugar Creek, Ohio,  and Tinkers,  Creek Ohio
AUTHOR:  Susan Oillman, Exposure Evaluation Division. Office of Toxic
          Substances
     This poster presents the results of two field  studies conducted  in  1986  by
the Environmental  Protection Agency to measure chlorinated  paraffins (CPs) in
segments of two  watersheds:  Sugar  Creek, Ohio and Tinkers  Creek, Ohio.  The
objective of these  field  studies was  to collect  environmental  information that
would help EPA determine if  chlorinated  paraffins  exist in these watersheds and
at what concentrations.   These watersheds were selected for  study because of
their  association with the known CP manufacturer  (Sugar Creek) and  a user of
lubricating oils which commonly  contain CPs  (Tinkers  Creek).

Sugar Creek.  Ohio
     Analysis of the first of three sets of environmental  samples  collected from
this study  site shows that chlorinated paraffins represented  in this study by
three  technical mixtures  [short-Chain Cio-i2 (50-60% CD, medium-chain Cu-i?
(50-60%  CD,  and long-chain  Czo-ao (40-50% CD CPsJ, are generally present at
quantifiable concentrations in the parts-per-billion to parts-per-million range  in
both the discharge  from  the CP manufacturing plant and in Sugar  Creek down-
stream from the discharge.

     The highest CP  concentrations were found in  the  surface impoundment
lagoon which sequesters  the manufacturing plant effluent  before allowing it to
discharge to Sugar  Creek.   Here, quantifiable concentrations  as high  as  170,000
ug/kg  were found in the lagoon sediments.   Measurements  made in the ditch
which carries  the lagoon  drainage  to Sugar Creek  showed concentrations as high
as 3,600  ug/kg in the sediments.   Concentrations were also recorded  in Sugar
Creek  downstream from the drainage  ditch confluence  ranging from trace levels
to 21  ug/kg.
                                      38

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Tinkers Creek. Ohio
     Analysis of the first of three sets of environmental samples  collected from
this study site  failed to detect  CPs in any of the samples  collected near the
outfall of the lubricating oil user or in the drainage network  carrying its
discharge to Tinkers Creek.   Most of the samples analyzed  from this site,
especially the sediment samples, contained a variety of organic constituents
which would have masked the presence of any CPs.   Chlorinated paraffins,
however, were measured  in the  low parts-per-billion range in one  sample
collected from the process waste stream of the lubricating  oil  user located  at
this site.
                                       39

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Geostatlstical Software Demonstration
AUTHOR:  Evan J.  Englund,  Environmental Monitoring Systems  Laboratory, Las
          Vegas, Office of Research and Development
     A  PC-based geostatistical software package recently developed at EMSL-LV
will  be  demonstrated with several environmental data sets, including  atmospheric
NOx  from  the  Los Angeles area, cadmium concentrations in soils from  the
Palmerton, Pennsylvania smelter site, and  lead  in soils  from Dallas. Texas.

     The  software package provides the investigator with  the capabilities
required for a complete  2-D spatial data analysis, from simple statistics through
variogram computation and modeling,  to kriging and contouring.   The  programs
all use  screen menus and  a standard command structure for ease  of use.  While a
'black box1 approach is strictly avoided, the software uses  default options
wherever  appropriate.   Thus, in addition to providing a practical  set  of tools for
the site investigator, the  package is  expected to  be  very useful for introductory
geostatistical  training and tutorials.

     The  software is written in Fortran 77, and is in the  public domain.  It
requires a relatively powerful PC configuration  with  640 kilobytes  of  memory —
ideally  an AT with a hard disk drive, math co-processor, and EGA graphics.
                                      40

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Household  Solvent Products:  A National Usage  Survey
AUTHORS: Mary Frankenberry.  Patrick Kennedy, and Cindy Stroup. Exposure
          Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances, and Donna
          Elsenhower, Paul Flyer,  and John Rogers, Westat.  Inc.
     This study was  conducted to provide usage information on 32 categories of
common household and  automotive products which were thought to contain
methylene chloride or its potential  substitutes.   Respondents were selected using
a random digit dialing  procedure, were contacted by  telephone  to obtain consent
and address, and were  then  sent a  mail  questionnaire which included  product
pictures.  Nonrespondents  were followed  up with a telephone interview.  The
objective was to acquire usage statistics  for each product that could be used to
calculate exposure  assessments.   These usage statistics included frequency of use,
duration and amount  of use, location  of  use, brand used, and protective measures
undertaken  while using the product.  In  general, respondents used an average of
seven of the thirty-two products in their lifetime and five  during the  last year.
Contact cements, superglues, and spray adhesives were used most frequently,
while  particular automotive products were used  least frequently.  Duration of use
was longest for painting proucts  (e.g., paint removers/strippers, adhesive
removers, and wood stains),  varnishes, and finishes.   Most respondents reported
having  a window or door  open but did not have the  fan  on while using products,
and most reported that they read directions  on  the  product labels before use.
Finally, usage of the products tended to  decrease with increasing age.
                                      41

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Tools for Presenting  Spaclal and Temporal Patterns  of Environmental
          Monitoring and Effects Data
AUTHORS: L. Thomas Heiderscheit, Wilson  B. Riggan. and John  Creason.  Health
          Effects   Research Laboratory, Research  Triangle Park, Office  of
          Research  and Development
     The  Health  Effects Research Laboratory had developed  this data presenta-
tion tool  for use with a variety of types of data  which may contain spacial and
temporal patterns of interest.

     The  technology links mainframe computing  power to the new generation of
"desk-top publishing" hardware and software to produce publication-quality  maps
and tables.

     The  Data  Management System documentation,  along with the cancer
mortality  data  used  from  U.S. Cancer Mortality  Rates and Trends 1950-1979:
Volume  IV Maps,  will be available  soon  on tape from NTIS.

     Plans are  now  being made for future work, including  the publication of an
update to U.S.  Cancer Mortality Rates and Trends  1950-1970:  Volumes  I-IV.
which will include data from 1980-85.   Potential analysis  of this data is being
explored.  Suggestions are welcome.
                                     42

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Orientation  to  Quality Assurance  Management
AUTHORS: Kevin Hull.  Office of Acid Deposition, Environmental Monitoring,  and
          Quality Assurance, Office of Research and  Development,  and Susan A.
          Santo, JWK International  Corporation
     This poster will outline the Quality Assurance  Management Staff's  six-hour
workshop  covering basic management issues  associated with EPA's quality
assurance (QA) program.  Through lecture, discussion,  videotape, and  class
exercises, participants learn how a  QA program ensures that environmental data
collected can support EPA's decision-making needs.  Topics include  how QA
differs from QC  (quality control), how to develop QA program and project plans,
the purpose of data  quality objectives, and  why management systems  reviews are
crucial to the success of a QA program.  For more information,  call the QA
Management Staff at (202) 382-5780.
                                     43

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    Sampling Strategy for Network Design
AUTHORS: Jerry Jalkanen and Donald E. Myers, Department  of Math, University
          of Arizona; and George T. Flatman, Environmental Monitoring Systems
          Laboratory, Las Vegas, Office  of Research  and Development
     A  sampling  strategy is presented to attack the problem of expanding a field
data collection network  for spatially  correlated random  processes that are known
to occur in hydrology.

     The  expansion of the  collection  network is formulated as an unconstrained
nonlinear minimization problem  with the decision variables being the spatial
locations  of the  additional  sample locations.  Previous attempts have  formulated
it as a  combinatorial problem with new locations restricted to  a  pre-determined
grid.

     The  estimation error is a  function  of the additional  sample locations
through the usage  of a geostatistical  model that assumes  the functional forms of
both the mean function  and the variogram function are known.   It is  assumed
that the first stage of sampling has allowed estimation  of parameters  associated
with the variogram model.

     Examples are  given  to illustrate the major factors that influence the
selection of the new  sample locations.  A hypothetical case study is presented
that consists  of  expanding  a  water well network in the Wolfcamp aquifer of the
Palo Duro Basin,  Texas.

                                   NOTICE
     Although  the  research described  has been  supported  by the United States
Environmental  Protection Agency  through Cooperative Agreement  CR811938 to
the University of Arizona, it  has not  been subjected to Agency review and,
therefore, does not necessarily  reflect the views of the Agency and no official
endorsement should be inferred.
                                      44

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 SESSION:  Poster Session
 TITLE:     Statistical Evaluation  of Water  Quality Trends
 AUTHOR:  Reta Roe,  Environmental Services  Division, Region VII
      Trend evaluation determines whether water quality is improving or
 degrading, and the rate of change.  Because the parameters used to determine
 water quality frequently depend  on  the  season, flow, and  or sediment, it may be
 necessary to adjust data for these constituents.

      Region 7 has compiled  an extensive Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) and
 software  for conducting trend evaluations.  This poster describes the capabilities
 and options of that SOP.

      Extrapolation of the statistical trends in historical data can  aid in deter-
 mining if and when beneficial uses of the water may change.

      Step trend analysis can help determine if a  change such as a new treatment
 facility has had an impact on water quality.

      The SOP and  associated computer programs have been designed for ease of
 usage and include  simplified  discussions  of the statistics  generated.  Featured  are
 discussions of general procedures followed in  the  programs  and  an  explanation  of
 the naming scheme.  Each program includes detailed  editing instructions,  output
 descriptions, and input and  output examples.   Necessary tables  are also contained
 in the package.   A full  length version of each program  is  included  with
 comments and echo print for  debugging purposes, as  well as an  edited version.

     Computer programs retrieve parameter data from the  STORET data base and
 place it  into a SAS data set.  The data  set retrieval programs can  retrieve a
single parameter along with  flow  or  sediment, or can retrieve grouped parameters
 (such as metals) along with  flow  or  sediment.  Various SAS procedures are  then
used for analysis.
                                      45

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     PLOT.STATS uses fourteen different relationships between the  chosen para-
meter as the dependent  variable and  flow or sediment as the  independent
variable to  establish and plot a graphical representation.   Models used are linear,
log-linear, log-log,  inverse, quadratic, log-quadratic, and eight different  hyper-
bolics.  Discussions  in this section focus on mean and standard deviation, curve
modeling, normal distributions, t and  F  distributions and hypothesis testing.  SAS
procedures used are MEANS, PLOT, and SYSREG.

     FLOW.STATS performs additional  statistical analyses, including residual
analysis on  the model chosen in PLOT.STATS.  Included  are sections on univari-
ate analysis, first through  fourth moments, and  nonparametric testing.  Nonpara-
metric tests used are the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and  the Shapiro-Wilk  statistic.
Univariate plots used are stemleaf,  box,  and  normal probability.  SAS procedures
used are MEANS, REG, PLOT, and UNIVARIATE.

     TIME.STATS again  uses the chosen model and  examines the data for  trends.
Plots  are generated  for flow,  concentration of the parameter,  and flow-adjusted
concentrations  of the parameter against time (or sediment against  time).
Discussions  include  autocorrelation and  the Durbin-Watson.

     Frequently, flow and  sediment  will have  a  linear relationship.   However,
they may not, and adjusting for both  flow and sediment may  be desirable.  With
MATRIX.STATS, flow  and sediment can be entered as the independent variables,
and the influences of both  are examined.  Using SASGRAPH, a three-dimensional
plot can be  generated.   Explanations  in this  section focus on  the Pearson
product-moment correlation,  limitations of regression  analysis, covariance,
correlation matrix, colinearity, model specification testing, parameter  estimate
statistics, and  influence.  SAS procedures used are MEANS, CORR, and  REG.

     Flow-adjusted  (or  sediment-adjusted) data  from  the previous  programs can
be further adjusted  by seasonality, and non-parametric  measures of correlation
used to analyze the data.

     SEASON.STATS  does seasonal adjustment on the data and recomputes
parameter estimates  and residuals to reflect this adjustment.   Discussions include
                                      46

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the nonparametric measures of correlation, Spearman-Rho. Kendall's Tau, and
Hoeffding's D statistic.   SAS procedures  used are MEANS,  REG,  and CORR.

     STEP.STATS adjusts data seasonally, analyzes the data when a change has
been made, and  determines  whether  the  change has had a positive or negative
impact.   The  nonparametric  analyses of  variance used include the Wilcoxon, the
Median, The Van der  Waerden, and the Savage.  Also  used is the  Kruskal-Wallis
Chi-square approximation.   SAS procedures used are  MEANS, REG,  CORR,  and
NPAR1WAY.

     Another section  gives  directions, explanations, and  keys  to  use SASGRAPH
with all  of the programs for enhanced output and plots.   Printing enhancement
options  include titles, fonts and  colors.  Plotting enhancement  options
additionally include patterns and  symbols.

     A special feature is a  three-dimensional  plot for the MATRIX.STATS
program.   Additional SAS procedures used with the enhanced  program  are
G3GRID and G3D.
                                     47

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SESSION:  Poster Session
TITLE:    In-House Graphics
AUTHOR:  Nancy Sneath, Washington  Information Center  Consultant
     Graphics are playing an increasingly important role  in EPA's  assimilation  of
statistical data.   Organizing facts and  figures in an easy to understand manner is
not an easy  task.  The  Washington Information Center (WIC), however,  is
available to  help  statisticians understand and select graphics  hardware and
software to create their own  charts  or  presentation  materials.

     The focus of this session  will be  "In-House Graphics"; what graphics  can
"YOU" generate sitting at  your  desk.  Topics  will include:  tips for selecting
software programs, output devices, speed considerations, color, costs, and
services  available from WIC.  The most  popular graphics packages will  be
demonstrated.
                                      48

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SESSION:   Poster Session
TITLE:     Control Chart Strategy
AUTHORS:  Thomas H. Starks,  Environmental Research Center, University of
           Nevada,  Las Vegas, and George  T. Flatman, Environmental Monitoring
           Systems  Laboratory, Las Vegas
     Monitoring the groundwater  around a waste impoundment site presents a
statistical problem in testing compliance  or leaking.   Two  type  of errors are
present in statistical  tests,  and both are undesirable.  If  the test is  designed  for
early detection, there may be too many false positives.  This means an out-of-
control state is declared when  it does  not exist and  unnecessary increased
sampling is started.  In contrast, if the test  is designed for conservative
detections  there may be too many false negatives.  That means an  in-control
state is declared when an out-of-control state exists and pollution takes  place
undetected.

     One commonly used statistical procedure that suggests an  answer for  this
type of problem is  control chart methodology.  This poster explains  control  chart
decision logic and applies two of the more promising  types of actual data.   The
Shewart chart is  designed to detect  a  large, binary leak from seasonal or random
fluctuations.  The Cusum chart is designed  to detect  a growing  leak.  The
optimum monitoring strategy uses a combination of these two  to  minimize false
positives and negatives.

                                    NOTICE
     Although the research described in this  article  has been supported  by the
United States Environmental Protection  Agency, it  has not  been subjected to
Agency review and, therefore, does not necessarily reflect  the views of the
Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.
                                      49

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SESSION:   Practical Considerations for  Agency Surveys
TITLE:     National Survey of Pesticides In Drinking Water Wells
AUTHOR:   James Boland, Hazard Evaluation  Division, Office of Pesticide Programs
     The National Pesticide Survey  (NPS)  is a  stratified random survey of both
community water  system (CWS) and  rural domestic drinking water  wells (DWS).
The  domestic  well portion of the Survey is a three-stage design with stratifi-
cation at the first two  stages.  The CWS component is a two-stage design with
stratification  at the  first stage.   The Survey objectives  include:

  (1)  to develop accurate  estimates  of pesticide contamination of drinking water
       wells,  both nationally  and within domains  of interest (e.g., subcountry
       areas  of high ground-water  vulnerability and/or pesticide  usage);  and

  (2)  to begin to explore potential associations  between specific pesticide
       occurrence in wells and factors such as high  vulnerability, specific crop
       types,  co-occurrence of nitrate contamination,  and pesticide use.

     This presentation  will  focus  on several  communication/outreach issues which
have proven both critically  important to the success of the project, but also
very resource intensive.  Specific issues to be discussed will  include:  needs for
outreach; need to keep  Regional,  State,  and local  units  of government well
informed; need for involving statisticians  early in the  project planning to
properly  articulate project objectives (i.e.,  do not "oversell" the Survey);  and the
need to  translate statistical details (a.k.a., "mumbo-jumbo") to the  nonstatis-
ticians.  The  successful role of a pilot  study,  conducted in  three  States,  will also
be discussed.   Other issues, such as sample frame problems  (differing needs for
accuracy for the program  vs. a statistical survey) and multifaceted statistical
support needs for a major survey, will also be  discussed, if time permits.
                                       50

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SESSION:   Practical  Considerations for Agency Surveys
TITLE:     Hazardous Waste Surveys:  Problems In Development  and
           Implementation
AUTHOR:   Jim  Craig, Water Management Division, Office  of Solid Waste
     The Office of Solid Waste  (OSW) is undertaking  a  major  effort to  improve
the quality of information used in regulatory development.  Two  major hazardous
waste surveys — the Treatment, Storage,  Disposal, and Recycling Facility (TSDR)
Survey  and the Hazardous Waste Generator Survey --  are the cornerstone of this
effort.  The surveys  cover hazardous waste generation  and management of
facilities regulated under the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976.
Together  they  will provide comprehensive information for use in regulatory
development.

     Many problems complicated the  development and implementation of these
surveys.  The major problems were developing the sample frame before con-
ducting the survey and communications throughout the  survey process.  Commun-
ications  problems  included determining and describing OSW's  data  needs, develop-
ing questions  to  meet these  needs, ensuring  that  respondents interpret the
questions as intended, and ensuring  that analysts using data do  not misinterpret
or misrepresent the data.  This presentation covers some of these problems and a
strategy for overcoming them.                   j i
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                                      51

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SESSION:  Guest Presentation
TITLE:    Statistics versus Statistics
AUTHOR:  Leo  Brelman,  Professor of Statistics, University of California.  Berkeley
     There  are  today two cultures in  statistics.  The first emanates from the
universities and is  concerned with models, techniques, asymptotics,  etc.  The
second is the domain of the  working statistician concerned with problem
formulation, data gathering designs, implementation  of the  design, assessment  and
understanding of the  data, and  analysis of the  data.

     The first culture often  has a pernicious  influence  on  the second,  tending to
substitute inapplicable models and techniques  for the exercise of intelligence  and
skepticism.  Some of the aspects of these  two cultures and their relationship  will
be outlined  and illustrated.
                                      52

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             Williamsburg  Dining
   COLLEGE OF
  VWUJAM & MARY
   Royce  Hotel
   The Colony Room
   Sir Francis  Drake's
   415 Richmond  Road

   Paul's  Deli and Pizza
   761 Scotland Street
   229-8976
2  Greenleaf Cafe
   Scotland Street

3  College Deli
   Richmond Road

4  Sukura (Japanese)
   Scotland Street

5  Trellis
   Duke of Gloucester Street
   229-8610

6  Berret's  Seafood
   199 S. Boundary Street
   253-1847
   7  Short Stop Cafe
      Jamestown Road

   8  Chounings  Tavern
      Duke of Gloucester Street

   9  Kings Arms Tavern
      Duke of Gloucester Street

  10  Christina  Campbell's Tavern
      Duke of Gloucester Street

  11  Tusks Restaurant & Lounge
      Ramada  Inn
      York Street

 *12  Nick's Seafood Pavilion
      Yorktown
      887-5269

 "13  Captain George's Seafood
      Richmond  Road

Not within walking  distance.
                                   54

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