THE FIFTH ANNUAL

EPA CONFERENCE ON
      STATISTICS
          March 6-9, 1989
          Boar's Head Inn
        Charlottesville, Virginia

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                 WELCOME
The Fifth Annual U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Conference
on Statistics is sponsored by the Statistical Policy Advisory Committee
(SPAC) and funded  by  the Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy,
Planning, and Evaluation. The Conference is held solely for the benefit and
participation of EPA personnel.  Programming  and arrangements for the
Conference  have  been  provided  by the  SPAC Conference  Planning
Committee, chaired by John Warren. Listed below are the members of the
Conference Planning Committee for the 1989 EPA Conference on Statistics:
Ruth Allen, ORD                       Mel Kollander, OPPE
John Creason, HERL-RTP               Herbert Lacayo, OPPE
Thomas Curran, OAQPS-RTP            Richard Levy, OPP
Jim Daley, OPPE                       William Nelson, AREAL
Dennis Ann Daniel, WIC                Barry Nussbaum,  OAR
George Flatman, EMSL-LV              Wayne Ott, ORD
Barnes Johnson, OPPE                  Judy Stober, HERL-CI
Henry Kahn, OW                       John Warren, OPPE
Kathleen Knox, OPP

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                           Table of Contents

                                                                        Page

Conference Agenda                                                          1

Conference Attendees                                                        9

Abstracts

  Communications  Session
  "Are We Communicating Properly? A View from Two Upper Managers" —
     Barry Nussbaum                                                      18

  The Cost-Effective  Statistician
  "The Cost-Effective Statistician" - Kathleen Knox                             19

  Hazard Evaluation and Risk Assessment
  "Risk Assessment in the Office of Pesticide Programs" -C. J. Nelson             21
  "Hazard Evaluation and Risk Assessment in the Office of Research and
     Development" ~ John Creason                                           22

  Graphics/Spatial Statistics: Statistics for Hydrological  Monitoring
     and Modeling
  "Spatial Hypothesis Testing" - Leon Borgman                                23
  "Conditional Simulation of Hydrological Parameters" ~ Dale Easley               24
  "Parameter Estimation for Ground-Water Monitoring Systems" ~ Dennis Weber     25

  Some Ideas "New" to EPA
  "Bootstrapping" - Herbert Lacayo                                          26
  "James-Stein Estimation: An Overview" - Bimal K. Sinha                      27
  "Measurement Error Models" -- Neerchal Nagaraj                              28

  New  Data Analysis Tools
  "Geographical Information Systems" ~ Larry Svoboda                          29
  "Air Quality Mapping System-Graphical Support for AIRS" ~ Warren Freas       30
  "Expert Systems--A Case Study" ~ Neil H. Frank                              31
  Principles  and Issues Concerning  the  Design and Testing of
     Questionnaires
  "Principles and Issues Concerning the Design and Testing of Questionnaires" -
     Mel Kollander                                                        32

  Human Exposure Assessment:  A  Review of the Field
  "Human Exposure to Environmental Pollution:  An Overview of Current Status,
    Research  Needs, and Future Directions" - Wayne Ott                        33

  Environmental  Surveys
  "Design of the National Sewage Sludge Survey and Some Preliminary Results" ~
    Henry D. Kahn                                                        34
  "Pollution Prevention Data Requirements Versus Available Agency Data
    Sources"  - Jim Craig                                                  35
                                     11

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"Measurement of Soil Digestion by Children in a Randomly Selected Population
   in Washington State" -- Paul White                                        36

SIMS  Overview
"SIMS Overview" -- Donald L. Thomsen, Jr., John Petkau, and James H. Ware     37

SIMS  In-Depth Presentation I
"Identifying Structure in Wet Deposition Data" - John Petkau                     38

NCC and the Statistician
"NCC and the Statistician" ~ Robert Lewis and John Staley                      39

Using  the  EPA Surveys  File
"Using the EPA Surveys File" - Jim Daley                                    40

SIMS  In-Depth Presentation II
"Measurement Error Models in Environmental Health Research" —
   James H. Ware                                                         41

PC Support Services for  Statisticians
"An Overview of 1C Services and Technology Assessment and a Background
   on the Statistician and Computer Support" ~ Denny Daniel and Mark Tolton      42

STATOX:   A PC-Based System for the Analysis of Tumor
   Incidence Data
"STATOX:  A PC-Based System for the Analysis of Tumor Incidence Data" --
   Richard Levy and Brion Cook                                            43

Poster Session
"Acidic Deposition, Health Effects, and Statistics: What Are the Links" --
   Ruth Allen                                                            44
"An Automated Data Collection System for the AMES Bioassay" -- W. Judgel,
   J.R. Meier, J.A. Stober, and K.M. Schenck (Presenter: Judy Stober)            45
"ANOVA in a Correlated Field" - Liliana Gonzalez (Presenter: George Flatman)     46
"EPA Personal Locator" -- William Smith                                     47
"Estimates from Composite Samples" -- J. Schwemberger, P. Robinson,
   G. Mack, B. Leczynski, T. Bemer, and J.  Orban                            48
"Forest Response to  Ozone: A Regression Analysis of the Southeastern
   United States"-- Bruce Madariaga and Leland Deck                           49
"Guidelines for Conducting the AHERA Clearance Test to Determine
   Compliance of an Asbestos Abatement Project" -- Bradley D. Schultz,
   Mary Frankenberry, and Jean Chesson                                     50
"Multistage Procedure Performance" - Karen Hogan                            51
"PC Demonstrations for PC S AS, Systat, and Statgraphics" -
   Bob Faoro, Brian Morton, David Svendsgaard, and Mark Tolton               52
"Power of Nonparametric Tests for Spatial Variables" ~ Be-Ling Lee (Presenter:
   George Flatman)                                                        53
"A Program for Testing Homogeneity of Some Repeated Measures" ~
   Clayton L. Stunkard                                                     54
"Statistical Analysis of Ground-Water Monitoring Data at RCRA Facilities" -
   James Brown                                                          55
                                   111

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  "STATOX: A PC-Based System for the Analysis of Tumor Incidence Data" -
     Richard Levy and Brion T. Cook                                         57
  "Summertime and the Living is Easy: The Summer of '88, Ambient Ozone,
     and Public Health" - Brian J. Morton and Leland Deck                       58
  "Textile Drug Room Monitoring Study" - Margaret G. Conomos and
     Bradley D. Schultz                                                     59
  "Using Computer-Based Training (CBT) to Meet S AS Training Needs" --
     Kelly Flynn                                                           60
  "The Use of Fractals for Spatial Simulation" -- Angelo Yfantis (Presenter:
     George Flatman)                                                      61

  Technology Transfer
  'Technology Transfer" -- David Berg and Ruth Allen                           62

  OIRM/NCC and  the Statistician
  "OIRM/NCC and the Statistician" -- Robert Lewis and John Staley               63

NOTES
                                     IV

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AGENDA

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                                                  AGENDA FOR THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                  EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                                MARCH 6-9, 1989
                           MONDAY. MARCH 6
 3:30pm   -   5:30pm    Registration and Check-in
                       Lower Lobby
5:30pm   -   6:30pm    OPENING  SESSION
                       Ballroom

           Introduction - N. Phillip Ross, Chief, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE

           SPAC Annual Report - N.  Phillip Ross, Chair, Statistical Policy Advisory
             Committee, Chief, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE

           Welcoming Remarks:   The Hidden Power of Statistics -- Timothy
             Titus, Director, Chemicals and Statistical Policy Division, OPPE

           Overview of Conference -- John Warren, Chair, Conference Planning
             Committee, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE

           Conference Information --  Marcia Gardner and Lori  Hidinger, SRA
             Technologies, Inc.
6:30pm   -   7:30pm    Opening Reception
                       Lower Lobby
                           TUESDAY. MARCH 7
8:15am   -   8:45am    Continental Coffee
                       Lower Lobby
8:45am   -  10:00am    ARE WE COMMUNICATING PROPERLY?:  A
                       VIEW FROM TWO UPPER MANAGERS
                       Ballroom

            Session Chair: Barry Nussbaum, Chief, Field Operations and Compliance
            Policy Branch, Office of Mobile Sources, OAR

            Panel:
            Don R. Clay, Acting Assistant Administrator, Office of Air and Radiation
            Bob H. Robinson, Associate Administrator, Economic Research Service, U.S.
            Department of Agriculture
            Discussant:  Barry Nussbaum, Chief, Field Operations and Compliance Policy
            Branch, Office of Mobile Sources, OAR

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                                                  AGENDA FOR THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                 EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                               MARCH 6-9, 1989
10:00am  - 10:15am
          Break
          Lower Lobby
10:15am  - ll:30am
          THE COST-EFFECTIVE  STATISTICIAN
          Ballroom
            Session Chair: Kathleen Knox, Deputy Director, Biological Evaluation and
            Analysis Division, OPP

            Panel:
            Tom Harris, Biological Analysis Branch, Biological Evaluation and Analysis
            Al Jennings, Director, Biological Evaluation and Analysis Division, OPP
            Kathleen Knox, Deputy Director, Biological Evaluation and Analysis Division,
            Mel Kollander, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE
ll:30am
l:15pm    Lunch Break
12:45pm  -  l:15pm   POSTER SESSION Meeting and Set-up
                       EdnamHall
 l:15pm  -  2:30pm   HAZARD EVALUATION AND  RISK
                       ASSESSMENT
                       Albemarle Room

            Session Co-Chairs:
            Rich Levy, Hazard Evaluation Division, OPP, and
            John Creason, Health Effects Research Laboratory, RTP

            Risk Assessment  in the Office of Pesticide Programs
            Presenter:  C.J. Nelson,  Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment
            Laboratory, RTP (formerly of the Office of Pesticide Programs)

            Hazard Evaluation and Risk Assessment in the Office  of Research
            and Development
            Presenter:  John Creason, Health Effects Research Laboratory, RTP
                       GRAPHICS/SPATIAL  STATISTICS:  SPATIAL
                       STATISTICS FOR HYDROLOGICAL
                       MONITORING AND MODELING
                       Commonwealth Room

            Session Chair: George Flatman, Environmental Monitoring Systems
            Laboratory, LV

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                                                     AGENDA FOR THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                     EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                                    MARCH 6-9, 1989


            Spatial Hypothesis  Testing
            Presenter:  Leon E. Borgman, Professor of Geology and Statistics, University
            of Wyoming

            Conditional Simulation  of Hydrological  Parameters
            Presenter:  Dale A. Easly, Graduate Student, University of Wyoming

            Parameter Estimation for Ground water  Monitoring Systems
            Presenter:  Dennis D. Weber, Environmental Research Center, University of
            Nevada, Las Vegas


                         SOME IDEAS  "NEW" TO EPA
                         Blue Ridge Room

            Session Chair:  Herbert Lacayo, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE

            The Bootstrap Method
            Presenter:  Herbert Lacayo, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE

            James-Stein Estimation:   An  Overview
            Presenter:  Bimal Sinha, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE, University of Maryland,
            Baltimore County

            Measurement  Error Models
            Presenter:  Neerchal Nagaraj, Statistics Department, University of Maryland,
            Baltimore County


2:30pm    -   2:45pm    Break
                        Upper Lobby


2:45pm    -   4:00pm    NEW  DATA ANALYSIS TOOLS
                        Albemarle Room

            Session Chair: Tom Curran, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, RTP

            Geographical  Information Systems
            Presenter:  Larry Svoboda, Chief,  Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
            Section, Region VIII

            Air Quality Mapping System  ~ Graphical Support  for AIRS
            Presenter: Warren Freas, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, RTP

            Expert Systems  - A Case Study
            Presenter: Neil  Frank, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, RTP

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                                                 AGENDA FOR THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                              MARCH 6-9, 1989
                       PRINCIPLES AND ISSUES CONCERNING THE
                       DESIGN AND TESTING  OF
                       QUESTIONNAIRES
                       Commonwealth Room

           Session Chair: Mel Kollander, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE

           Presenter: Mel Kollander, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE


                       HUMAN EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT:  A
                       REVIEW OF THE FIELD
                       Blue Ridge Room

           Session Chair: Wayne Ott, Office of Acid Deposition, Environmental
           Monitoring, and Quality Assurance, ORD

           Human Exposure to Environmental Pollution:  An Overview  of
           Current  Status, Research Needs, and Future Directions
           Presenter: Wayne Ott, Office of Acid Deposition, Environmental Monitoring, and
           Quality Assurance, ORD
                         WEDNESDAY. MARCH 8
 8:15am  -  8:45am    Continental Coffee
                       Lower Lobby
  8:45am  - 10:00am
ENVIRONMENTAL  SURVEYS
Ballroom
           Session Chair Henry Kahn, Office of Water Regulations and Standards, OW

           Design of the  National Sewage Sludge Survey and Some Preliminary
           Presenter: Henry Kahn,Office of Water Regulations and Standards, OW

           Pollution Prevention  Data Requirements  Versus  Available Agency
           Presenter: Jim Craig, Office of Pollution Prevention, OPPE

           Measurement of Soil Ingestion  by Children in a Randomly Selected
           Population  in  Washington State
           Presenter: Paul White, Office of Health and Environmental Assessment, ORD
10:00am   -  10:15am
Break
Lower Lobby

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                                                     AGENDA FOR THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                    EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                                   MARCH 6-9, 1989


10:15am   -  ll:30am     SIMS  OVERVIEW
                         Ballroom

            Session Co-Chairs: Bill Nelson, Atmospheric Research Exposure and
            Assessment Laboratory, RTF, and Ruth Allen, Office of Environmental
            Processes and Effects Research, ORD

            Presenters:
            Donald Thomsen, President, Societal Institute of the Mathematical Studies
            (SIMS), John Petkau, Statistics Department, University of British Columbia, and
            James H. Ware, Biostatistics Department, Harvard School of Public Health


ll:30am   -   l:15pm     Lunch Break


  l:15pm   -   2:30pm     SIMS  IN-DEPTH  PRESENTATION I
                         Commonwealth Room

            Session Co-Chairs: Ruth Allen, Office of Environmental Processes and Effects
            Research, ORD and Bill Nelson, Atmospheric Research Exposure and
            Assessment Laboratory, RTP

            Identifying Structure in Wet Deposition Data
            Presenter: John Petkau, Statistics Department, University of British Columbia


                         NCC  AND THE STATISTICIAN
                         Blue Ridge Room

            Session Chair: Judy Stober, Health Effects Research Laboratory, Cincinnati

            Presenters:
            Robert Lewis, Technical Manager of User Support, National Computer Center
            John Staley, Chief, User Support Service Division, NCC, UNISYS, Inc.


                        USING THE EPA SURVEYS FILE
                        Albemarle Room

            Session Chair: Jim Daley, Information Services Branch, OPPE

            Presenter: Jim Daley, Information Services Branch, OPPE


 2:30pm    -   2:45pm    Break
                        Upper Lobby

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                                                  AGENDA FOR THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                  EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                                MARCH 6-9, 1989


2:45pm   -   4:00pm   SIMS IN-DEPTH PRESENTATION  II
                       Commonwealth Room

           Session Co-Chairs: Bill Nelson, Atmospheric Research Exposure and
           Assessment Laboratory, RTF, and Ruth Allen, Office of Environmental
           Processes and Effects Research, ORD

           Measurement Error Models  in Environmental Health Research
           Presenter: James H. Ware, Biostatistics Department, Harvard School of Public


                       PC SUPPORT SERVICES FOR STATISTICIANS
                       Blue Ridge Room

           Session Chair: Denny Daniel, Manager, Technical Services Division,
           Washington Information Center

           Presenters:
           Denny Daniel, Manager, Technical Services Division, Washington Information
           Center, and
           Mark Tolton, Manager, RTP Information Centers

           Panel:
           Robert Faoro, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, RTP,
           Brian Morton, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, RTP, and
           David Svendsgaard, Health Effects Reserch Laboratory


                       STATOX:  A PC-BASED SYSTEM FOR  THE
                       ANALYSIS OF  TUMOR INCIDENCE DATA
                       Albemarle Room

           Session Chair: Rich Levy, Hazard Evaluation Division, OPP

           Presenters:
           Rich Levy, Hazard Evaluation Division, OPP, and
           Brion T. Cook, DYNAMAC Corporation


4:15pm   -   6:15pm   POSTER SESSION
                       Ednam Hall and Lobby

           Session Chair: Barnes Johnson, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE


6:15pm   -   7:00pm   Guest Speaker Reception
                       Albemarle and Blue Ridge Rooms

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                                                    AGENDA FOR THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                    EPA CONFERENCE ON STATISTICS
                                                                  MARCH 6-9, 1989


                            THURSDAY. MARCH 9


  8:1.5am   -   8:45am    Continental Coffee
                         Lower Lobby

  8:45am   -   9:45am    TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
                         Ballroom

            Session Chair: Ruth Allen, Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research,
            ORD

            Presenters:
            Ruth Allen, Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research, ORD, and
            David Berg, Office of Cooperative Environmental Management


 9:45am  - 10:00am     OIRM/NCC AND  THE STATISTICIAN
                         Ballroom

            Session Chair: Judy Stober, Health Effects Research Laboratory, Cincinnati

            Presenters:
            Robert Lewis, Technical Manager of User Support, National Computer Center
            John Staley, Chief, User Support Service Division, NCC, UNISYS, Inc.


10:00am   - 10:30am     Break and Check-out


10:30am   - ll:45am     GUEST SPEAKER PRESENTATION
                         Ballroom

            Session Chair: John Warren, Chair, Conference Planning Committee, Statistical
            Policy Branch, OPPE

            Guest Speaker: Lincoln Moses, Department of Statistics, Stanford University


ll:50am   - 12:45pm     AWARDS AND CONCLUDING  REMARKS
                         Tavern  (Refreshments available)

            Awards Presentation -  Lincoln Moses, Statistics Department, Stanford
            University, and John Warren, Chair, Conference Planning Committee, Statistical
            Policy Branch, OPPE

            Conference  Summary  and Adjournment -- N. Phillip Ross, Chair,
            Statistical Policy Advisory Committee, Chief, Statistical Policy Branch, OPPE


 l:00pm                 Buses Leave


                                    8

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ATTENDEES

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                                                             ATTENDEES OF THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                              EPA CONFERENCE OF STATISTICS
                                                                               MARCH 6-9, 1989
                                      Attendees
      Gerald G. Akland. Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment Laboratory (MD-56), Research Triangle
      Park, NC 27711, (919) 541-2346, (FTS) 629-2346.

**    Ruth H. Allen. National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program, 722 Jackson Place, N.W., Washington, DC
      20503, (202) 395-5771, (FTS) 395-5771.

*     David Berg. Office of Cooperative Environmental Management, (A-101 F6) 401 M Street, S.W. Washington,
      DC 20460, (202) 475-9741.

      Jerome Blondell. Office of Pesticide Programs (TS-769C), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460,
      (703) 557-0336, (FTS) 557-0336.

*     Leon Borgman.  Professor of Geology and Statistics, University of Wyoming, P.O. Box 3006, Laramie, WY
      82071, (307) 766-6148.

      Cecil Brenner. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street,
      S.W.. Washington, DC 20460, (202) 245-3728.

*     James Brown. Office of Solid Waste (OS-321), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 475-
      7240, (FTS) 475-7240.

      Bvron Bunper. Office of Air  and Radiation (ANR-461) 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202)
      475-9644, (FTS) 475-9644.

      James Casey. Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC
      20460, (202) 475-8664, (FTS) 475-8664.

*     Don R. Clav.  Acting Assistant Administrator, Office of Air and Radiation (ANR-443), 401 M Street, S.W.,
      Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-7400.

      Jim Cogliano. Office of Health and Environmental  Assessment (RD-689), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington,
      DC 20460, (202) 382-2575, (FTS) 382-2575.

*     Margaret G. Conomos. DDB, Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401 M
      Street, S.W., Washington. DC 20460, (202) 382-3958, (FTS) 382-3958.

*     Brion T. Cook. DYNAMAC Corporation, 11140 Rockville Pike, Rockville, MD  20852, (301) 230-6149.

      Christopher J. Cnrhett Region III (3HW01), 841 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA  19107, (215) 597-1166,
      (FTS) 597-1166.

      Patricia M. Corbett. Region HI, Office of Program Support (3HW01), 841 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA
      19107, (215) 597-2393, (FTS) 597-2393.

*     Jim Craig. Office of Pollution Prevention  (PM-219), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202)
      382-7922, (FTS) 382-7922.

      Lee Crawford. National Data Processing Division (MD-35), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, (919) 541-
      0568, (FTS) 629-0568.
                                           10

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                                                               ATTENDEES OF THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                                EPA CONFERENCE OF STATISTICS
                                                                                 MARCH 6-9, 1989
 **   John P. Creason. Biostalislics  Branch, EEBD, Health Effects Research Laboratory (MD-55), Research
      Triangle Park, NC  27711, (919) 541-2598, (FTS) 629-2598.

 **   Thomas C. Curran. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-14), Research Triangle Park, NC
      27711, (919) 541-5467, (FTS) 629-5467.

 **   Jim Dalev. Information Services Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street,
      S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2743, (FTS) 382-2743.

 **   Penny  Daniel. Manager, Technical Services Division, Washington Information Center (WIC), 401 M Street,
      S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-7788, (FTS) 382-7788.

      Linda A. DeLuise. Office of Pesticide Programs (TS-767C), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington. DC  20460,
      (703) 557-8541, (FTS) 557-8541.

      Roper Devin. Planning and Analysis Branch (3PM60), Region III, 841 Chestnut Building, Philadelphia, PA
      19107,  (215) 597-9864, (FTS) 597-9864.

      Susan Dillman. Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401 M Street, S.W.,
      Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-5375, (FTS) 382-5375.

      Maria Dombroski. Office of Water Regulations and Standards (WH-586), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington
      DC 20460, (202) 475-8639, (FTS) 475-8639.

      Frederick Dreisch. Central Regional Laboratory, 839 Bestgate Road, Annapolis, MD 21401, (301) 266-9180.

      Robert  Over. Office of Air and Radiation (ANR-461), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202)
      475-9630, (FTS) 475-9630.

 *     Dale H. Easlev. University of Wyoming, P.O. Box 3803, Laramie, WY 82071, (307) 766-6148.

      Richard G. Eilers. RREL, Drinking Water Research Division, Office of Research and Development, 25 W.
      Martin Luther King Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268, (513) 569-7809, (FTS) 684-7809.

      Evan J. Enplund. EAD, Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, P.O. Box 93478, Las Vegas, NV,
      89193-3478, (702) 798-2248, (FTS) 545-2248.

      Gary Evans. EARD, Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment Laboratory (MD-56), Research Triangle
      Park, NC 27711, (919) 541-3124, (FTS) 629-3124.

 *     Robert Faoro. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-14), Research Triangle Park. NC  27711,
      (919) 541-5459. (FTS) 629-5459.

      Jerzv A. Filar. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street,
      S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2680, (301) 455-2410.

      Terence Fitz-Simons. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-14), Research Triangle Park, NC
      27711, (919) 541-0889, (FTS) 629-0889.

**    George  Flatman. EAD, Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, P.O. Box  93478, Las Vegas, NV,
      89193-3478, (702) 798-2628. (FTS) 545-2628.

*     Kellv Flvnn. National Computer Center, 79 Alexander Drive, Bldg. 4501, (34B), Research Triangle Park, NC
      27709, (919) 541-3734, (FTS) 629-3734.
                                            11

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                                                        ATTENDEES OF THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                         EPA CONFERENCE OF STATISTICS
                                                                           MARCH 6-9, 1989
Neil Frank. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-14), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711,
(919) 541-5560, (FTS) 629-5560.

Mary Frankenberrv. Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401 M Street,
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20460, (202) 382-3890, (FTS) 382-3890.

Warren P. Freas. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-14), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711,
(919) 541-5469, (FTS) 629-5469.

Michael A. Gansecki. Region VIII. (8HWM-RI), 999 18th Street, Denver, CO  80202. (303) 293-1510,
(FTS) 564-1510.

Stephen Goranson. Information Management Branch, Region V (MD-5MI-16), 230  S. Dearborn St.,
Chicago, IL 60604, (312) 886-3445, (FTS) 886-3445.

Thomas Hale. CRAB, CSPD, Office of Standards  and Regulations,  Office of Policy. Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington. DC  20460, (202) 475-8661, (FTS) 475-8661.

John D. Harris.  CRAB, CSPD, Office of Standards and Regulations, Office of Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W.. Washington, DC  20460, (202) 475-8661, (FTS) 475-8661.

Thomas C. Harris. BAB, Biological Evaluation and Assessment Division, Office of Pesticide Programs (TS-
768C). 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460. (703) 557-1616, (FTS) 557-1616.

Matthew Hnatov. Office of Water Regulations and Standards (WH-586). 401 M Street, S.W., Washington,
DC 20460, (202) 382-5412.

David Hoadlev. Information Services Branch, Information Management and Services Division.  Office of
Information Resources Management (PM-211D), 401  M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 475-
8672, (FTS) 475-8672.

Karen Hogan. DDB. Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401  M Street,
S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-3895. (FTS) 382-3895.

David Holland. Atmospheric Research  Exposure and Assessment Laboratory, Office of Research and
Development (MD-56), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711. (919) 541-3126, (FTS) 629-3126.

John W. Hollev. Office of Mobile Sources (EN-397F), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460 (202)
382-2635. (FTS) 382-2635.

Bill Houck. Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Program Management Operations (ANR-443), 401 M
Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460. (202) 382-7754. (FTS)  382-7754.

Howard Howell. ASSB/ASD, Office of Information Resources Management, 401  M Street,  S.W..
Washington. DC  20460. (202) 382-5139, (FTS) 382-5139.

Julia A. James. Eastern Environmental Radiation Facilities, Office of Air and Radiation, 1890 Federal Drive,
Montgomery. AL 36109. (205) 272-3402, (FTS) 534-7615.

Allen L. Jennings. Director, Biological Evaluation and Analysis Division, Office of Pesticide Programs (TS-
768Q, 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (703) 557-0500, (FTS) 557-0500.

Robert Jemigan.  Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, The American University, Washington, DC 20016,
(202)885-3120.
                                      12

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                                                              ATTENDEES OF THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                               EPA CONFERENCE OF STATISTICS
                                                                                 MARCH 6-9, 1989
**    Barnes Johnson. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M
      Street, S.W.. Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2684. (FTS) 382-2684.

**    Henry D. Kahn. Office of Water Regulations and Standards (WH-586), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC
      20460, (202) 382-5406, (FTS) 382-5406.

      Thomas Kelly. Director, Office of Standards and Regulations, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation
      (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-4001, (FTS) 382-4001.

      Jimmie L. Kingery. Robert S. Kerr Environmental Research Laboratory. P.O. Box 1198, Ada, OK 74820,
      (405) 332-8800, (FTS) 743-2226.

**    Kathleen D. Knox. Biological Evaluation and Analysis Division, Office of Pesticide Programs (TS-768C)
      401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (703) 557-0500, (FTS) 557-0500.

**    Mel Kollander. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy. Planning, and Evaluation, (PM-223), 401 M
      Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2734, (FTS) 382-2734.

**    Herbert Lacavo. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223). 401 M
      Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2714, (FTS) 382-2714.

      Sharon LeDuc. Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment Laboratory, (MD-80), Research Triangle
      Park, NC 27711, (919) 541-1335, (FTS) 629-1335.

**    Richard Levy. Hazard Evaluation Division, Office of Pesticide Programs (TS-769C), 401 M Street, S.W.,
      Washington, DC 20460. (703) 557-3715, (FTS) 557-3715.

*     Robert D. Lewis. Technical Manager for User Support, National Computer Center,  NDPD (MD-34),
      Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, (919) 541-4013, (FTS) 629-4013.

      Denise Link. Environmental Services Division, Region VIII (8ES-AS), P.O. Box 25366, Denver Federal
      Center, Denver, CO 80225, (303) 236-7093, (FTS) 776-7093.

*     Bruce Madariaga. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-19) Kevarrh Triangl* Parlr NIP 27711,
      (919) 541-5290, (FTS) 629-5290.

      Elizabeth Margosches. Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401  M Street,
      S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-3511, (FTS) 382-3511.

      Ronald W. Mathenv. Office of Research Program Management (RD-674), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington,
      DC  20460, (202) 382-7466, (FTS) 382-7466.

      Tom McCurdy. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-12), Research Triangle Park, NC  27711,
      (919) 541-5658, (FTS) 629-5658.

      Karen Milne. Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401 M Street, S.W.,
      Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2263, (FTS) 382-2263.

      William Monson. Region VIII, P.O. Box 25366, Denver Federal Center. Lakewood, CO 80225, (303) 236-
      5108, (FTS) 236-5102.

      Lisa Moore. RREL (MS-223), 26 W.  Martin Luther King Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268. (513) 569-7671,
      (FTS) 684-7671.
                                            13

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                                                              ATTENDEES OF THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                               EPA CONFERENCE OF STATISTICS
                                                                                 MARCH 6-9, 1989


*     Brian J. Morton. ASB, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (MD-12), Research Triangle Park, NC
      27711, (919) 541-5295, (FTS) 629-5295.

*     Lincoln Moses. Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Sequoia Hall, Stanford, CA  94305, (415)
      723-1886.

*     Neerchal K. Nagaraj. Department of Mathematics and Statistics (MP437), University of Maryland, Baltimore
      County, 5401 Wilkens Avenue. Baltimore. MD  21228. (301) 455-2437.

*     C. J. Nelson. Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment Laboratory (MD-56) Research Triangle Park,
      NC 27711, (919) 541-2792, (FTS) 629-2792.

**    William C. Nelson. EARD, Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment Laboratory  (MD-56), Research
      Triangle Park. NC 27711. (919) 541-3184. (FTS) 629-3184.

      Thomas L. Nessmith. OPM, Policy, Planning,  and Evaluation Branch. Region IV. 345 Courtland Street.
      NE, Atlanta, GA 30365. (404) 347-7109. (FTS) 257-7109.

      Brand Niemann. Office of Air and Radiation,  (ANR-445), 401 M Street. S.W., Washington, DC  20460,
      (202) 382-7423, (FTS) 382-7423.

**    Barrv Nussbaum. Office of Mobile Sources, Office of Air and Radiation (EN-397F). 401 M Street. S.W..
      Washington. DC 20460. (202) 382-2637. (FTS) 382-2637.

      Gregory G. Oberley. Water Management Division. Drinking Water Branch. Region VIII (8WM-DW), 999
      18th Street, Suite 500, Denver, CO 80202-2405, (303) 293-1486, (FTS) 564-1486.

      Robert O'Brien. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223). 401 M
      Street. S.W.. Washington. DC  20460. (202) 475-9659. (FTS) 475-9659.

**    Wavne On. Office of Acid Deposition, Environmental Monitoring, and Quality Assurance, Office of Research
      and Development (RD-680), 401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC  20460.  (202) 382-5793. (FTS) 382-
      5793.

      Rudolph Parrish. Environmental Services Division, U.S. EPA, College Station Road, Athens, GA  30613-
      7799. (404) 546-3123.

      G.P. Patil. Department of Statistics. Pennsylvania State University. 318 Pond Lab, University Park, PA
      16802, (814) 865-9442.

      Susan Perlin. Office of Health Research (RD-683), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-
      5893, (FTS) 382-5893.

*     John  Petkau. Statistics  Department, University of British  Columbia, Vancouver,  British Columbia
      CANADA V6T 1W5, (604) 228-4673.

      Daniel Reinhart. Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401 M Street, S.W.. Washington, DC 20460, (202)
      382-3585, (FTS) 382-3585.

      Esperanza P. Renard  RREL, RCB Branch  (MS-104), Woodbridge Avenue, Edison, NJ 08837, (201) 321-
      4355, (FTS) 342-4355.

      Raymond C. Rhodes. Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment Laboratory (MD-56), Research
      Triangle Park, NC  27711, (919) 541-2574, (FTS) 629-2574.
                                           14

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                                                               ATTENDEES OF THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                                EPA CONFERENCE OF STATISTICS
                                                                                  MARCH 6-9, 1989


      Wilson B. Riggan. Health Effects Research Laboratory fMD-55V Research Triangle Park, NC  27711. (919)
      541-7540. (FTS) 629-7540.

      Bob H. Robinson. Associate Administrator, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture,
      (202) 786-3302.

*     N. Phillip Ross. Chair, Statistical Policy Advisory Committee, Chief, Statistical Policy Branch, Office of
      Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2680,
      (FTS) 382-2680.

*     Bradley D. Schultz. Office  of Toxic Substances, (TS-798) 401  M Street, S.W.,  Washington, DC 20460,
      (202) 382-3896, (FTS) 382-3896.

      Ingrid Schulze.  Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy,  Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M
      Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-3007, (FTS) 382-3007.

*     John Schwemberger. Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798), 401  M Street,  S.W., Washington, DC  20460,
      (202) 382-7195, (FTS) 382-7195.

      Ronald W. Shafer. Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Office of Air and Radiation, (EN-341) 401
      M Street, S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-2810, (FTS) 382-2810.

      Diann Sims. Central Regional Laboratory, 839 Bestgate Road. Annapolis, MD 21401, (301) 266-9180.

*     Bimal K. Sinha. Statistical  Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M
      Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-2680, (FTS) 382-2680.

*     William P. Smith. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy. Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M
      Street. S.W., Washington, DC  20460. (202) 382-2697. (FTS) 382-2697.

      Gary Snodgrass. Office of  Air and Radiation (ANR-461). 401 M Street, S.W., Washington. DC  20460,
      (202)475-9630.

      Charlene E. Spells. Air Management Division, Region III, 841 Chestnut Building, Philadelphia, PA 19107,
      (215) 597-6555, (FTS) 597-6555.

*     John A. Stalev. Chief, User Support Service Division, National Computer Center, NDPD (MD-34B),
      Research Triangle Park. NC  27711, (919) 541-3704, (FTS) 629-3704.

**    Judv A. Stober.  Health Effects Research Laboratory, Office of  Health Research. Office  of Research and
      Development, 26 W. Martin  Luther King Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268, (513) 569-7379. (FTS) 684-7379.

      Cindy Stroup. DDB, Exposure Evaluation Division, Office of Toxic Substances (TS-798). 401 M Street.
      S.W., Washington, DC 20460, (202) 382-3886, (FTS) 382-3886.

*     Clavton L. Stunkard. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy. Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M
      Street, S.W.. Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-2680, (FTS) 382-2680.

*     David J. Svendsgaard. Biostatistics Branch (MD-55), RRSD, Health Effects Research Laboratory, Research
      Triangle Park, NC 27711, (919) 541-2468, (FTS) 629-2468.

*     Larrv Svoboda. Chief, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Section, Region  VIII,  P.O. Box 25366,
      Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO 80225. (303) 236-5102, (FTS) 776-5102.
                                            15

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                                                              ATTENDEES OF THE FIFTH ANNUAL
                                                                EPA CONFERENCE OF STATISTICS
                                                                                 MARCH 6-9, 1989


*     Donald L. Thomsen. President, The Societal Institute of the Mathematical Studies, 97 Parish Road South,
      New Canaan, CT 06840, (203) 966-1008.

*     Timothy Titus. Director, Chemical and Statistical Policy Division, Office of Standards and Regulations,
      Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223). 401 M Street. S.W.. Washington DC 20460, (202)
      382-4005, (FTS) 382-4005.

*     Mark Tolton. RTP Information Center II (MD-35). Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, (919) 541-0092,
      (FTS) 629-0092.

*     James H. Ware. Biostatistics Department, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston,
      MA 02115, (617) 732-1056.

**    John Warren. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M Street,
      S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202) 382-2683, (FTS) 382-2683.

*     Dennis Weber. Environmental Research Center, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway,
      Las Vegas, NV  89154, (702) 739-0835.

      Dorothy Wellington. Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401 M
      Street, S.W., Washington, DC  20460, (202) 475-8204, (FTS) 475-8204.

      Charles E. White. Office of Water Regulations and Standards (WH-586), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington,
      DC 20460, (202) 382-5411, (FTS) 382-5411.

*     Paul White. Office of Health and Exposure Assessment, ORD, (RD-689), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington,
      DC 20460. (202) 382-2589. (FTS) 382-2589.

      Brvan C. Wood-Thomas  Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation (PM-223), 401  M Street, S.W.,
      Washington, DC 20460, (202) 475-8791. (FTS) 475-8791.

      Kellev A. Yost. Air Management Division, Region III, 841 Chestnut Building, Philadelphia, PA 19107,
      (215) 597-2746, (FTS) 597-2746.
*     Conference Participant
**    Conference Planning Committee Member
                                            16

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ABSTRACTS

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Session:     Communications Session
Title:       Are We Communicating Properly?:  A View from Two Upper
             Managers
Author:     Barry D. Nussbaum, Chief, Field Operations and
             Compliance Policy Branch, Office of Mobile Sources
Prior communications sessions at this conference have led to lively discussions between
statisticians and managers. This year, a forum is presented to discuss how managers use
statistical information in EPA compared with another major government agency.

Both the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture
must make many operating and policy decisions. Frequently these involve the collection
and analysis of data.  At EPA analyses are generally performed by the program staffs,
while at USDA, the Economic Research Service provides statistical analysis independent of
the regulatory function.

A panel of two high government management officials representing each of these agencies
will discuss their use of statistical information for decision-making. These two radically
different approaches  to data analysis and its use for decisions provide an opportunity to
explore the  advantages and disadvantages of each.  After comments by both officials, a
discussant will probe the differences for ways to improve  EPA communications. The
audience will then have an opportunity to question the panel.

The panel will include:

             • Don R. Clay, Acting Assistant Administrator, Office of Air and
               Radiation; and
             • Bob H. Robinson, Associate Administrator, Economic Research
              Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
             • Barry Nussbaum (discussant)
                                     18

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 Session:     The Cost-Effective Statistician

 Title:        The Cost-Effective Statistician

 Author:     Kathleen Knox, Deputy Director, Biological Evaluation and
              Analysis Division, Office of Pesticide Programs


 A panel discussion of ways in which statisticians can expand their influence on EPA's
 regulatory decisions by participating in the development of testing standards and guidelines
 through voluntary standards organizations such as the American Society for Testing
 Materials (ASTM) and the Association of Official Analytical Chemists (AOAC) or through
 inter- and intra-Agency workgroups. The cost-effective statistician will get "more bang for
 the buck" through up-front input into the development of "standard" test methods, e.g.,
 disinfectant efficacy, auto emissions testing,  water quality sampling.  There are not as
 many statisticians  in EPA as there  are engineers, chemists, and other environmental
 scientists. If we, EPA's statisticians, can ensure that the scientific measurement and testing
 methods which the scientists employ are valid and can provide interpretable results, we will
 have a long-range impact on EPA's program decisions even though we are not personally
 involved.

 This panel discussion will provide a manager's point of view, including an approach to
 selling the value of a statistician's input to a manager, and will expand on the "cheap
 statistician" theme which was raised at a previous conference. It will also include examples
of EPA  statisticians' involvement in ASTM guidelines for indoor air quality studies and
investigations, in World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for human exposure
studies,  in the development of an AOAC test methodology for disinfectant efficacy, and in
inter-Agency guidelines for good  field practices (the field testing counterpart of good
laboratory practices).

      The panel will include:
             • Tom Harris, Biological Analysis Branch, Biological Evaluation and
               Analysis Division, Office of Pesticide Programs;
             • Al Jennings, Director, Biological Evaluation and Analysis, Office of
               Pesticide  Programs;
                                      19

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Kathleen Knox, Deputy Director, Biological Evaluation and Analysis
Division, Office of Pesticide Programs; and
Mel Kollander, Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy, Planning,
and Evaluation.
                         20

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Session:    Hazard Evaluation and Risk Assessment

Title:       Risk Assessment in the Office of Pesticide Programs

Author:    C. J. Nelson, Atmospheric Research Exposure and Assessment
            Laboratory, RTP (formerly of the Office of Pesticide
            Programs)


Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment as accomplished by statisticians in the Office of
Pesticide Programs (OPP) will be discussed.  Actual case studies will illustrate the process
of qualitative risk assessment in OPP.
                                    21

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Session:     Hazard Evaluation and Risk Assessment
Title:        Hazard Evaluation and Risk Assessment in the Office of
             Research and Devlopment
Author:     John Creason, Health Effects Research Laboratory, RTF
This presentation will discuss the process by which the  Office of Research and
Development (ORD) discovers the needs of the program offices, bases its research on these
needs, and transfers the results back to the program offices.  The different manners in
which this information ends up in guidelines, risk assessments, and hazard evaluations will
also be discussed.
                                    22

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Session:     Graphics/Spatial Statistics:  Spatial Statistics for Hydrological
             Monitoring and Modeling
Title:        Spatial Hypothesis Testing
Author:     Leon Borgman, Department of Geology and Statistics,
             University of Wyoming
The objective of hypothesis testing is to improve present methods of determining whether
contamination is present in a monitoring system. Statistical tests are being developed to
determine, within a certain confidence level, when action should be taken. The tests will
take into account the number of wells, their relative locations, and their locations with
respect to the source of contamination.  The overall program and how the three components
of conditional simulation, parameter estimation, and hypothesis testing merge into a unified
project for the improvement of ground-water monitoring also will be discussed.
                ><-cJ    
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Session:     Graphics/Spatial Statistics:  Spatial Statistics for Hydrological
             Monitoring and Modeling

Title:        Conditional Simulation of Hydrological Parameters

Author:     Dale Easley, Graduate Student, University of Wyoming


The topic of conditional simulation as applied to hydrological parameters will be presented.
The objective of this task is to simulate hydraulic head measurements for use in parameter
estimation procedures. The conditional simulation is used in this application, rather than
kriging, to preserve the total range of variability of the hydraulic head.  The principles of
conditional simulation, their application to a case study at Pittman, Nevada, and their use in
the parameter estimation program will be discussed.
                                      24

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Session:     Graphics/Spatial Statistics: Spatial Statistics for Hydrological
             Monitoring and Modeling
Title:        Parameter Estimation for Ground-Water Monitoring Systems
Author:     Dennis Weber, Environmental Research Center, University
             of Nevada, Las Vegas
The topic of parameter estimation as applied to the determination of aquifer parameters for
ground-water modeling will be discussed. The objective of this task is to improve
estimates of the aquifer parameters that are used in ground-water modeling such that the
model is representative of the actual aquifer. Ground-water models can be used as a tool in
the development of contaminant monitoring systems for the optimum placement of wells.
The principle of parameter estimation, how it will be used to improve the representativeness
of the models, and how the improved ground-water models  will be used as a design tool
for monitoring systems will be discussed.
                                     25

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Session:     Some Ideas "New" to EPA

Title:       The Bootstrap Method

Author:     Herbert Lacayo, Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy,
             Planning and Evaluation


This presentation provides a brief introduction to the bootstrap method.  Bootstrapping
gives the applied statistician a general method for estimating standard errors and confidence
intervals when traditional methods prove inadequate. This presentation will include a
discussion of some uses of the bootstrap method in analyzing EPA data and a discussion of
its advantages and disadvantages.
                                     26

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Session:    Some Ideas "New" to EPA

Title:       James-Stein Estimation: An Overview

Author:    Bimal Sinha, Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy,
            Planning and Evaluation, Statistics Department, University of
            Maryland, Baltimore County


The purpose of this talk is to present in simple terms the main idea behind the James-Stein
estimation of several parameters, to indicate when it works and when it does not, and how
it works. Many examples will be presented, and an application to an EPA problem will be
indicated.
                                    27

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Session:     Some Ideas "New" to EPA

Title:        Measurement Error Models

Author:     Neerchal Nagaraj, Statistics Department, University of
             Maryland, Baltimore County


Measurement Error Models are regression models in which the explanatory variables are
measured with error.  Difficulties arising due to the presence of measurement error will be
illustrated using the regression model with a single explanatory variable. Attenuation of the
ordinary least squares estimator and the identification problem caused by the presence of
measurement error will be illustrated.

Method of moments and  maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters will be
discussed. An example will be presented to illustrate the computations using EV CARP, a
PC software developed at the Statistical Laboratory of Iowa State University.
                                     28

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Session:     New Data Analysis Tools

Title:       Geographical Information Systems

Author:     Larry Svoboda, Chief, Environmental Monitoring and
            Assessment Section, Region VIE


This presentation will demonstrate how Region Vin has used Geograhical Information
Systems (CIS) as a tool in analyzing and presenting environmental data.
                                   29

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Session:     New Data Analysis Tools

Title:        Air Quality Mapping System - Graphical Support for AIRS

Author:     Warren Freas, Office Air Quality Planning and Standards

The Monitoring and Reports Branch has developed a computerized air quality mapping
system which uses data readily obtained from the Aerometric Information and Retrieval
System (AIRS). The user selects the map type, geographic area, and pollutant by
responding to a series of menu options. Typical map options include air quality site
location maps or maps of air quality status for states or groups of states.  The software has
been installed on the Agency's IBM System at the National Computer Center and is readily
accessible to all users.  An overview of the mapping capabilities for data screening and
analysis will be presented. On-line documentation is also available.
                                     30

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Session:     New Data Analysis Tools
Title:       Expert Systems ~ A Case Study
Author:     Neil H. Frank, Technical Support Division, Office of Air
             Quality Planning and Standards
An expert system is broadly defined as a system that mimics human decision-making or
knowledge processing capabilities to resolve problems or to formulate a response to an
issue or concern. One such expert system, called the PMio Advisory System, has been
developed to assist regional, state, and local air pollution analysts with the interpretation
and implementation of the new paniculate matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
The system was developed using the expert system shell EXSYS to explore the use of
expert systems as a technology transfer tool.
                                     31

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Session:     Principles and Issues Concerning the Design and Testing of
             Questionnaires
Title:        Principles and Issues Concerning the Design and Testing of
             Questionnaires
Author:     Mel Kollander, Statistical Policy Branch, Office of Policy,
             Planning, and Evaluation
The questionnaire is the most essential element of a statistical survey. It must be designed
carefully by a knowledgeable survey expert with the cooperation of the survey sponsor.
The  survey expert  brings  to the design process knowledge of the principles of
questionnaire design, while the sponsor provides a description of how the information is to
be collected and how it is to be used. After a questionnaire is drafted, it must be adequately
tested to identify and eliminate errors, inconsistencies, and unusable questions. During the
session, we will discuss the recommended process and principles for designing and testing
questionnaires from the point of view of the EPA survey statistician.
                                      32

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Session:     Human Exposure Assessment: A Review of the Field
Title:       Human Exposure to Environmental Pollution: An Overview of
             Current Status, Research Needs, and Future Directions
Author:     Wayne Ott, Office of Acid Deposition, Environmental
             Monitoring, and Quality Assurance, Office of Research and
             Development
In recent years, great strides have been made to measure the actual exposure — through air,
food, water, and skin - of the population to environmental pollutants.  The new science of
total human exposure assessment consists of five distinct research topic areas:  (1) human
exposure models; (2) measurement methods and instruments; (3) microenvironmental field
studies; (4) total exposure field studies; and (5) biomarkers. The new human exposure
models include both important microenvironments (automobiles, stores, homes, offices,
and various workplaces) and human  activity patterns (the visits people make to these
microenvironments and their activities in the microenvironments). Measurement methods
include instruments for monitoring  microenvironments  and personal  monitors.
Microenvironmental field studies are intense studies of certain physical settings (schools,
churches,  houses, factories,  buses,  subways).  Total exposure field  studies utilize
probability samples of the population to estimate the exposure frequency distribution of the
population of cities or regions. Of greatest prominence are the Total Exposure Assessment
Methodology  (TEAM) studies, which have been successfully  demonstrated for carbon
monoxide, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and pesticides.  Biomarkers research
seeks to develop methods for inferring the quantity of pollutants actually entering the body.
Using total human exposure methods, data have now become available that can accurately
characterize the exposures of the population to important environmental  pollutants, and
these data contain many surprises. This presentation covers the current status, research
needs, and future directions of this new field.
                                     33

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Session:     Environmental Surveys
Title:        Design of the National Sewage Sludge Survey and Some
             Preliminary Results
Author:     Henry D. Kahn, Office of Water Regulations and Standards
The Office of Water Regulations and Standards (OWRS) is currently conducting a sample
survey of municipal sewage treatment plants. This survey is a questionnaire and analytical
survey intended  to gather information on the generation, use and disposal of, and
contaminant levels in, sludge that results from the treatment of municipal wastewater. The
survey will be conducted over an eighteen-month period and the information obtained will
be used to support the development of regulations for the use and disposal of sludge as
required by the Clean Water Act. This presentation will briefly describe the survey and the
sample design and present some preliminary results based on data gathered to date. The
sample design is a nationwide probability sample stratified by plant size  and  sludge
disposal method.  The survey is designed in two phases with the analytical sample plants a
random subset of the questionnaire sample plants.
                                      34

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Session:     Environmental Surveys
Title:       Pollution Prevention Data Requirements Versus Available
             Agency Data Sources
Author:     Jim Craig, Office of Pollution Prevention
EPA's newly formed Pollution Prevention Office (PPO) is responsible for the overall
development and coordination of the Agency's pollution prevention program.  One of
PPO's more important tasks is to develop data to use to encourage pollution prevention and
assess progress of pollution prevention programs.  PPO is currently developing an
Agency-wide strategy for collecting information on pollution prevention.

Any strategy for data collection begins with development  and understanding of
requirements and assessment of available data. Nearly every program office in EPA
collects data on facilities it regulates.  Some information collections, most notably the
Hazardous Waste Generator Survey and Biennial Reports and the Toxic Release Inventory,
contain substantial information related to pollution prevention. However, many other data
bases on regulated facilities contain little pollution prevention information.  The level of
detail in Agency databases ranges from name and address only to extensive information on
processes or substances regulated.

PPO's data collection strategy needs to build on data collections that begin to meet the data
requirements while not interfering with other data collections. The data collection strategy
must also balance the Agency's data requirements with the concern about burden on the
regulated community. The strategy will ultimately incorporate some questions into existing
data collections and develop others as part of a pollution prevention survey or census.
                                      35

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Session:     Environmental Surveys
Title:       Measurement of Soil Ingestion by Children in a Randomly
             Selected Population in Washington State
Author:     Paul D. White, Exposure Assessment Group, Office of
             Research and Development
Knowledge of quantities of soils typically ingested by children is a critical component of
many EPA assessments of contaminated surface sites. The Exposure Assessment Group in
EPA's Office of Research and Development is conducting a series of field studies to
quantify soil ingestion rates. In the study presented here, approximately 100 children in
Richland, Washington were recruited using a random-digit-dialing solicitation of their
parents. The study protocol then required participants to provide data on the children's
activities and collect samples of the children's diets and excreta in a one-week study period.
Chemical analysis of samples was conducted, and a mass balance approach was used to
calculate soil ingestion using the difference between excreted and dietary fluxes of selected
trace elements. Good response rates and cooperation of study participants were obtained.
Average estimates of soil ingestion centered around 0.1 grams per day but with substantial
differences among the three trace elements used.  Approaches to combining the data from
multiple elements are discussed.  Research being conducted  to improve  measurement
accuracy for individual children is presented.
                                      36

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Session:     SIMS Overview

Title:       SIMS Overview

Authors:    Donald L. Thomsen, Jr., President, Societal Institute of the
             Mathematical Sciences, John Petkau, Department of Statistics,
             University of British Columbia, James H. Ware, Department
             of Biostatistics, Harvard University


The  Societal  Institute  of the Mathematical Sciences (SIMS),  through a cooperative
agreement with several  ORD offices (OMMSQA, OHR, OHEA), is developing statistical
techniques and methodologies useful in answering some of the Agency's most important
questions.

Currently the SIMS program includes  two major groups investigating applications to (1)
human health effects,  including developmental biology and teratology, and personal
exposure assessment and (2) acid deposition, quality assurance, total human exposure,
geostatistics, and global climate change. Results are provided to ORD in a technical report
format. Most reports are eventually published in peer-reviewed journals.  An objective of
the SIMS program is to expand the interaction between EPA statisticians and university
researchers through workshops, conferences, and visiting scientist exchange programs.

This session will survey recent findings from the two current projects and discuss on-going
statistical research and resulting environmental applications.
                                     37

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Session:     SIMS In-Depth Presentation I
Title:       Identifying Structure in Wet Deposition Data
Author:     John Petkau, Department of Statistics, University of British
             Columbia
Identifying the spatial and temporal structure in the chemistry of wet deposition using data
obtained from a fixed network of rainfall-monitoring sites over an extended period of time
is a challenging problem. This presentation will briefly describe the methodology used and
the results obtained in two different studies carried out by the SIMS group at the University
of British Columbia. In both studies, a primary objective was the assessment of temporal
trends.

The first study  was based on rainfall-event pH measurements  from the nine-station
MAP3S/PCN monitoring network for the period 1977-1982. The focus of the study was
an attempt to validate the model developed by Eynon and Switzer (1983)1 on an
independent data set.  The structure of the data was explored in detail, but no clear
indication concerning trends was apparent

Prompted in pan by these results, a study involving a more comprehensive network was
undertaken and is still in progress. This study is based on monthly data aggregates from
the NADP/NTN monitoring network for the period 1980-1986. Various exploratory and
nonparametric tools are being used in a  detailed examination of the data.  Preliminary
results with each of sulphates, nitrates, and hydrogen ions include a major surprise: while
levels diminished in the first part of the study period, this trend appears to have reversed
approximately midway through the study period
}The Canadian Journal of Statistics. 11, 11-24.

                                      38

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Session:    NCC and the Statistician

Title:       NCC and the Statistician

Authors:    Robert Lewis, Technical Manager of User Support, National
            Computer Center (NCC) and John Staley, Chief, User Support
            Service Division, NCC, UNISYS, Inc.


The National Computer Center (NCC) is an evolving organization. The restructuring of the
organization itself, along with the implementation of new computing technology has
dramatically impacted the NCC user community. Four areas that need to be understood by
the NCC user are: future directions of Agency computing, the different methods the NCC
uses to communicate with the user, the Central Problem Management System, and where to
get help when you need it.  These subjects will be covered so that each participant will have
an understanding of how and where to obtain assistance from the NCC and what the future
has in store for the Agency computer user.

A question and answer period will follow the formal presentation.
                                    39

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Session:    Using the EPA Surveys File

Title:       Using the EPA Surveys File

Author:    Jim Daley, Information Services Branch, Office of Policy,
            Planning, and Evaluation


This session will consist of a demonstration on the use of the EPA Surveys File for tapping
into prior Agency survey experience. The session chair will discuss the content the EPA
Surveys File and describe a few recent file searches.  Session attendees will be able to
design and implement various search strategies based upon subject area, data collection
method, or other survey characteristic data, on a PC and to compare the results.
                                     40

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Session:    SIMS In-Depth Presentation n

Title:      Measurement Error Models in Environmental Health Research

Author:    James H. Ware, Biostatistics Department, Harvard University


It is widely recognized that  the "exposures" used in exposure assessments and in
epidemiologic studies of environmental pollutants are approximations to the true exposures
of individuals. In air pollution research, for example, studies of personal exposure and
indoor concentrations have shown that individual exposures to air pollution are not well
described by measurements at an outdoor monitoring site. There is substantial statistical
literature on methods for modeling measurement error as part of a statistical analysis, but
these methods have rarely been used in environmental research. This talk discusses why
this might be so and discusses the potential for linking new methods of environmental
measurement with  new methods of statistical  analysis  to quantify the effects of
measurement error on individual studies and risk assessment.

The effects of measurement error in exposure-response studies are briefly reviewed and
two investigations of measurement error problems are described, one involving the effects
of measurement error in the data analysis.  The potential and limitations of measurement
error methods are described, and we briefly examine the additional  issues that arise in
multipollutant settings, such as exposure assessment in areas of chemical manufacturing or
around hazardous waste sites.
                                     41

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Session:    PC Support Services for Statisticians
Title:       An Overview of 1C Services and Technology Assessment and a
            Background on the Statistician and Computer Support
Authors:   Denny Daniel, Manager, Technical Services Division,
            Washington Information Center and Mark Tolton, Manager,
            RTF Information Centers
This presentation will be a brief overview of what the Information Centers have to offer in
support of the statistician, including a brief look at three of the most common statistical
software packages available on the personal computer. As part of the discussion about
Information Center Services there will also be a discussion about the new Technology
Assessment Program that could immediately benefit EPA statisticians.  Following this
initial discussion there will also be a panel of PC users to discuss the pros and cons of three
of the most commonly used software packages in the Agency. During the Poster Session,
there will be a demonstration of the three packages and a chance for anyone to "test drive"
the packages with an "expert" there to assist and answer questions.

The panel will include:
      • Robert Faoro, mathematical statistician, Office of Air Quality Planning and
        Standards, RTP (PC SAS);
      • David Svendsgaard, statistician, Health Effects Research Laboratory, RTP
        (Statgraphics); and
      • Brian Morton, economist, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, RTP
        (Systat).
                                     42

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Session:    STATOX: A PC-Based System for the Analysis of Tumor
           Incidence Data
Title:      STATOX: A PC-Based System for the Analysis of Tumor
           Incidence Data
Authors:   Richard Levy, Hazard Evaluation Division, OPP and Brion
           T. Cook, DYNAMAC Corporation
This session provides a demonstration of a personal computer data-base and statistics
system for use by the Toxicology Branch.  The data management portion of the system
provides an interactive, user-friendly environment for data entry, editing, and archival of
individual animal data submitted by registrants. The statistical portion of the system
provides state-of-the-art statistical routines for the analysis of animal survival and tumor
incidence data.
                                   43

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Session:     Poster Session
Title:       Acidic Deposition, Health Effects, and Statistics: What Are the
             Links?
Author:     Ruth H. Allen, National Acid Precipitation Assessment
             Program
The Acid Precipitation Act of 1980 (Title VH of the Energy Security Act of 1980, Public
Law 96-294) created the Interagency Task Force on Acid Precipitation to develop and
implement the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). The purpose of
NAPAP is to increase our understanding of the causes and effects of acid deposition. The
scientific information produced by this effort will be reported to Congress in a series of
reports and assessments to support decision-making regarding acidic deposition control and
abatement strategies. The purpose of this presentation is to highlight statistical issues in the
area of assessment of indirect human health effects of acid deposition. The  example of
bioaccumulation of metals in the human food chain and its relationship to acid deposition is
used to illustrate the role of statistics in an integrated understanding of indirect health effects
of acidic deposition.
                                      44

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 Session:     Poster Session

 Title:        An Automated Data Collection System for the AMES Bioassay

 Authors:     Judy A.  Stober,  J.R. Meier, K.M. Schenck, Health Effects
              Research Laboratory, Cincinnati, OH, and W. Judge,
              Computer Sciences Corporation

 The salmonella mutagenicity assay is used extensively throughout the world. Because
 large amounts of data can be generated relatively quickly, a systematic way of collecting,
 analyzing, and storing the data is desirable.  A computer program which operates on an
 IBM PC/AT interfaced to a Biotran n automated colony counter has been developed for this
 purpose. The program runs interactively and consists of a  series of data entry screen
 panels.  User-defined selection menus are accessed for entry of assay types, test strains,
 positive controls and solvent types.  Common information is retained from one data set to
 the next These fractures minimize entry errors and operator time.  Plate count data may be
 manually entered or automatically collected from the counter.  The program has the
 following data capacities per data collection session: 5 test strains, -/+ S9 (2 levels), -/+ b
 glucuronidase, negative/positive/solventTother"  control data, 50 treatment groups,  5
 replicates/treatments. These options make the program useful  for a variety of applications
 including dose-response assays, mutagen inactivation mixtures. A built-in editor simplifies
 data correction, and standardized file format facilitates the transmission of data to other
 computer systems.   The report format includes a graphical display of the data and
 preliminary analysis of the dose-response curves using linear regression procedures.  An
 iterative feature allows the exclusion of toxic doses and re-analysis. The data can then be
 transferred to other systems for inclusion in quality control data bases and for formal
 statistical analyses, which  include various modeling procedures developed specifically for
 the assay. The utility of this program  for rapid collection and preliminary quantitative
analysis of data has provided a valuable  tool for experimental planning. This abstract does
not necessarily reflect EPA policy.
                                      45

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Session:    Poster Session
Title:       ANOVA in Correlated Fields
Author:    Liliana Gonzalez, University of Wyoming (presented by
            George Flatman, Environmental Monitoring Systems
            Laboratory,  LV)
ANOVA  is one of the recommended "statistical methods" for the legally required
monitoring of a RCRA hazardous waste facility" under 40 CFR Part 264 "Statistical
Methods for Evaluating Ground-Water Monitoring from Hazardous Waste Facilities: Final
Rule."  Ground-water data usually are spatially correlated.  Such correlation degrades
random variable tests. This poster presentation describes an ANOVA test when the data are
from a correlated field.
                                   46

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Session:     Poster Session

Title:        EPA Personal Locator

Author:     William Smith, Office of Standards and Regulations


Finally, the EPA telephone directory is available on PC for instant access to Headquarters
and RTP employees.  No, this is not the out-of-date telephone book; it is based on
information updated daily by the EPA locator facility. A fast retrieval program, "The
Personal Locator" was created by William Smith (SPB/OPPE) to access this database. You
can search employees by name, room, building, mail-code, office, or any substring, then
press F2 to dial the number. The PC can be used as a one-speaker phone, or turned off for
normal conversation.
                                     47

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Session:   Poster Session

Title:      Estimates from Composite Samples

Authors:  J. Schwemberger and P. Robinson, Office of Toxic
           Substances;  G. Mack, B. Leczynski, T. Berner,  and J.
           Orban, Battelle


The National  Human Adipose  Tissue  Survey (NHATS),  conducted by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), analyzes samples of human adipose tissue for
levels of various chemicals.  The NHATS was begun in  1967 to monitor levels of
pesticides in human tissue. The survey protocol calls for collecting at least five grams of
adipose tissue (about the size of a rounded tablespoon) from cadavers and surgical patients.

Composite  samples were introduced in  the NHATS  in the 1980s.   Monitoring the
environment occasionally requires composite samples that combine two or more individual
samples.  Composites reduce costs, but information on individual samples is diminished.
The list of  chemicals monitored  in the 1980s was expanded to include, for example,
dioxins and  furans.  This expansion led to a change in the method of chemical analysis for
the NHATS.  The cost of the new method forced  the NHATS program to composite
samples before doing the chemical analysis.  Under the direction of the Design and
Development Branch in OTS, statisticians at Battelle designed a set of composite samples
for individual specimens sampled nationally. Subsequently, the composite samples were
physically created and analyzed for selected chemicals.

A  model, consistent with the design of composites, was  developed  to interpret the
measured concentrations of the composites. The parameters in the model were estimated
and tested for statistical significance. Estimates of mean concentration levels for the
population an certain subpopulations were computed from model parameter estimates. The
relative standard error of the mean concentration estimates was calculated through a Taylor
series expansion.
                                     48

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Session:    Poster Session
Title:       Forest Response to Ozone: A Regression Analysis of the
            Southeastern United States
Authors:   Bruce Madariaga and Leland Deck, Office of Air Quality
            Planning and Standards
Forest damage is among the suspected adverse effects from tropospheric ozone. To set
national standards, an immediate need exists to understand forest response to elevated
levels of ambient ozone. This study investigates the existence and extent of the relationship
between ambient ozone levels and forest health in the southeastern United States. A forest
growth model is developed and regression analysis techniques  are used to produce
estimates of the effect on pine stand growth from ambient ozone.
                                     49

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Session:     Poster Session
Title:        Guidelines for Conducting the AHERA Clearance Test to
             Determine Compliance of an Asbestos Abatement Project
Authors:    Bradley D.  Schultz and Mary Frankenberry, Office of
             Toxic Substances and Jean Chesson, Chesson Consulting
The Asbestos Hazard Emergency Response Act (AHERA) required EPA to specify when
an asbestos work site is sufficiently clean for removal of the containment barriers isolating
the work site  from the rest of the building.  In the absence of an airborne asbestos
standard, EPA developed a test based on a statistical comparison of airborne asbestos
concentrations inside the work site with concentrations outside the work site.  The test was
developed assuming a lognormal distribution for airborne asbestos concentrations and
sample sizes were specified to achieve acceptable false positive and negative error rates
while minimizing cost. An initial screening step, which allows a work site to pass without
analyzing all samples  under certain circumstances,  and a  check for  sources of
contamination were added to the basic comparison. The statistical performance of the entire
three-step decision process was evaluated under a variety of conditions using Monte Carlo
simulation. The results of this evaluation were taken into account prior to promulgation of
the final rule.
                                     50

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Session:     Poster Session

Title:        Multistage Procedure Performance

Author:     Karen Hogan, Office of Toxic Substances


 Performance of the linearized multistage procedure was examined, in light of recent
 criticism that it is not responsive to experimental carcinogenesis data, and that the resulting
 slope factors, or cancer potency measures, may be mostly reflections of the magnitude of
 the maximum tolerated dose. GLOBAL86 was applied to a wide range of dose response
 patterns, and the resulting slope factors compared. Slope factors can vary three orders of
 magnitude (when doses are expressed as a proportion of the highest dose in a study), and
 excluding carcinogenic responses at highly toxic doses from the estimation procedure can
 result in markedly increased slope factors (when there are carcinogenic responses at the
 remaining doses).
                                      51

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Session:    Poster Session

Title:      PC Demonstrations for PC SAS, Systat, and  Statgraphics

Authors:   Robert Faoro and Brian  Morton, Office of Air Quality
           Planning and Standards, David Svendsgaard, Health Effects
           Research Laboratory, RTP, and  Mark Tolton, RTP
           Information Centers
PC SAS, Systat, and Statgraphics software will be available on PCs.  Poster session
attendees will have the opportunity to test, compare, and ask questions regarding these PC-
based statistical software packages.
                                   52

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Session:     Poster Session
Title:        Power of Nonparametric Tests for Spatial Variables
Author:     Be-Ling Lee, University of Wyoming (presented by George
             Flatman, Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, LV)
40 CFR Part 264, "Statistical Methods for Evaluating Ground-Water Monitoring from
Hazardous Waste Facilities," emphasizes the responsibility of the owner/operator of a
RCRA hazardous waste facility to know the beta, or probability of a false negative, in his
statistical method. The rule also states the value of using non-parametric tests. This poster
presentation extends the random variable Wilcoxan Test to a correlated field such as
spatially correlated ground-water samples.
                                    53

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Session:     Poster Session
Title:        A Program for Testing Homogeneity of Some Repeated
             Measures
Author:     Clayton Stunkard, Office of Standards and Regulations  and
             University of Maryland
A FORTRAN program is presented to enable the researcher to analyze data from a variety
of situations involving what is commonly known as the single-dimension repeated
measures design.  The test used is essentially the Pitman-Welch permutation test for the
randomized  blocks design.  Special  cases for which  programs already  exist are
demonstrated and include the following: Friedman's Analysis of Variance of ranked data,
and McNemar's  and Cochran's  tests  for dichotomized  data.  Stuart's extension of
McNemar's two dependent-samples test to multichotomous data, and Madansky's test of
interchangeability are also performed. Madansky's test generalizes the Cochran "Q" test
for marginal homogeneity of k correlated dichotomous  variables to  k correlated
multichotomous variables. Measured or ranked data are input casewise, but categorical
data may be input either casewise or in  summary form for  groups of cases with identical
patterns for the k variable or occasions.
                                     54

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Session:     Poster Session
Title:        Statistical Analysis of Ground-Water Monitoring Data at RCRA
             Facilities
Authors:    James Brown, Office of Solid Waste and Jeff Mocker,
             Midwest Research Institute
In 1982, EPA promulgated  regulations  for ground-water monitoring and  response
standards for permitted facilities in Subpart F of Part 264, for detecting releases of
hazardous wastes into ground water from storage, treatment, and disposal facilities (47 FR
32274: July 26, 1982). The Subpart F regulations required the ground-water monitoring
data to be examined by Cochran's Approximation to the Behrens Fischer Student's t-test
(CABF) to determine whether there was a significant exceedance of background levels, or
other allowable levels, of specified chemical parameters and hazardous waste constituents.
Concerns were raised that this procedure could result in a high rate of "false positives"
(Type I errors), thus requiring an owner or operator to advance into a more comprehensive
and expensive phase of ground-water monitoring.  More importantly, another concern was
that the procedure could result in a high rate of "false negatives" (Type II errors), i.e.,
instances where actual contamination would go undetected.

As a result of these concerns, EPA replaced the CABF procedure with  five different
statistical procedures that are more appropriate for ground-water monitoring (53  FR 39720:
October 11,1988). These amendments also outline sampling procedures and performance
standards that are designed to help minimize the occurrence of Type I and Type II errors.
The five different statistical methods that may be used to evaluate ground-water monitoring
data are:
              1) Parametric Analysis of Variance (ANOVA);
              2) Nonparametric ANOVA;
              3) Tolerance Intervals;
              4) Prediction Intervals; and
              5) Control Charts.
 Additionally, an alternative statistical procedure may be used, provided that it meets the
 performance standards specified in the revised amendments (53 FR 39720: October 11,
 1988).
                                       55

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In order to help regional and state personnel implement this regulation, EPA prepared a
guidance document entitled, "Statistical Analysis of Ground-Water Monitoring Data at
RCRA Facilities."  The guidance document provides a detailed analysis of the five
statistical methods and describes situations and examples under which each method would
be appropriately used.  As a supplement to the guidance,  software on some of these
statistical procedures has been developed.  This software  provides the user with the
capability of analyzing ground-water monitoring  data  with the parametric and
nonparametric ANOVA, tolerance intervals, and confidence intervals. Additionally, when
less than 50% of the data are not quantifiable, the system performs a test of proportions to
help determine whether a release from a regulated unit has occurred.
                                       56

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Session:    Poster Session
Title:       STATOX: A PC-Based System for the Analysis of Tumor
            Incidence Data
Author:    Richard Levy, Hazard Evaluation Division, OPP and Brion
            T. Cook, DYNAMAC Corporation
This poster provides a demonstration of a personal computer data-base and statistics system
for use by the Toxicology Branch. The data management portion of the system provides an
interactive, user-friendly environment for data entry, editing, and archival of individual
animal data submitted by registrants. The statistical portion of the system provides state-of-
the-art statistical routines for the analysis of animal survival and tumor incidence data.
                                     57

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Session:     Poster Session

Title:       Summertime and the Living is Easy: The Summer of 88,
             Ambient Ozone, and Public Health
Authors:    Brian Morton and Leland Deck, Office of Air Quality
             Planning and Standards
Across the United States, millions suffered through the past summer. Not only were the
streets hotter than a match  head; air quality was noticeably poor.  Ambient ozone
concentrations were remarkably high—even historically pristine Acadia National Park in
Maine violated the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for the first time.

Using a model developed by the Ambient Standards Branch in the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, we can estimate the effect of ambient or tropospheric ozone on
public health.   The model  operates using monitored ozone concentrations  and
concentration-response functions for a variety of acute health endpoints (symptoms)
induced by short-term exposure to ozone. By comparing the estimate of health effects for
the Summer of 1988 to the estimate of health effects for a better summer, we estimate the
number of excess symptoms attributable  to the poorer air quality observed during the
Summer of 1988.
                                    58

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Session:     Poster Session

Title:        Textile Drug Room Monitoring Study

Authors:    Margaret G. Conomos and Bradley  D. Schultz,  Office
             and Toxic Substances

Dye weighers in textile dyeing and printing plants are involved in the weighing and transfer
of relatively small quantities of numerous powder dyes and other chemicals.  This results in
a potential exposure to a diverse range of chemicals which exhibit a broad spectrum of
lexicological properties. To gain more detailed information about workplace exposure to
powder dyes, a study has been conducted to measure concentrations of dyes in the
workplace air and to characterize worker activities and industrial hygiene practices.  This
study was unique in that both government (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) and
industry (American Textile  Manufacturers Institute and Ecological and  Toxicological
Association of Dyestuffs Manufacturing Industry) collaborated on an impartial basis and
the dyehouses studied participated on a strictly voluntary basis.

The study included  a survey of 24 randomly selected textile dyeing or printing sites which
used powder dyes.  At each site, one worker was observed for an eight-hour shift; personal
monitoring and area sampling data were taken. Certified industrial hygienists recorded
worker activities, duration of potential exposure, personal engineering controls in use and
quantities and frequency of use of each dye that was handled during the monitoring period.
Bulk samples of each dye were taken.  The particulates collected on the  air monitoring
filters  were analyzed for commercial dye content using a  spectrophotometric method
developed for the study.

This study provides the most comprehensive review ever undertaken of textile worker
exposure to powder dyestuffs. This poster provides a summary of the results.
                                      59

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Session:     Poster Session
Title:       Using Computer-Based Training (CBT) to Meet SAS Training
            Needs
Authors:    Kelly Flynn, EPA National Computer Center—Educational
            Services
"Getting Started with the SAS System" is a tutorial that helps users learn the SAS System
for personal computers. It shows the essentials of running a simple job using the SAS
Display Manager System.  Students can select lessons from the tutorial menu or use the
tutorial index to branch directly to topics of interest.  The tutorial is appropriate for both
beginning and experienced users.
                                    60

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Session:     Poster Session

Title:        The Use of Fractals for Spatial Simulation

Author:     Angelo Yfantis, Environmental Monitoring Systems
             Laboratory, LV (presented by George Flatman,
             Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory, LV)


The Theory of Chaos with its affine transformations, such as fractals, has received a lot of
publicity as computer generated art of environmental subjects.  More than computer art,
fractals can be conditioned by known data values at sample locations and a semivariogram
to give a site specific kriging type simulation. This would be a statistically justifiable study
tool for ground-water plume estimation. Fractals seem much more economical of computer
time than alternative algorithms for spatial simulation.
                                    61

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Session:     Technology Transfer

Title:       Technology Transfer

Authors:    David Berg, Director, Technology Innovation and Economic
            Committee, Office of Cooperative Environmental Management
            and Ruth Allen, National Acid Precipitation Assessment
            Program (formerly Project Director for the ORD Superfund
            outreach initiative on RI/FS)
Using the Superfund RI/FS (remedial investigation/feasibility study) processes as a case
study, panelists will discuss the nature of technology transfer needs and opportunities
within EPA today.  Applications of statistical survey methods are mentioned, as are
international technology transfer needs.
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Session:     OIRM/NCC and the Statistician

Title:       OIRM/NCC and the Statistician

Author:     Robert Lewis, Technical Manager of User Support, National
            Computer Center (NCC) and John Staley, Chief, User Support
            Service Division, NCC, UNISYS, Inc.


This session will provide statisticians with  information on how and where to find
assistance for their computing needs within the National Computer Center.  Future
directions for Agency computing will also be highlighted.
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