Final Report
MODEL INPUTS AND
AREA SOURCE EMISSION ESTIMATES
FOR PHOENIX AND TUCSON
EPA Contract No. 68-02-1378 - Task Order No. 4
September 1975
fttific Environmental Services, INC
1930 14th Street Santa Monica, California 90404
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169G6
MODEL INPUTS AND
AREA SOURCE EMISSION ESTIMATES
FOR PHOENIX AND TUCSON
by
George E. Umlauf
Allan Kokin
PACIFIC ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES, INC.
1930 - 14th Street
Santa Monica, California 90404
CONTRACT NO. 68-02-1378
TASK ORDER NO. 4
Prepared for:
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
EPA Project Officer:
Dave Collins
Region IX
100 California Street
San Francisco, California 94111
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) would like to
thank the EPA Project Officer, Dave Collins, for his assistance
and cooperation during this project. PES would also like to
express its appreciation to Thomas R. Buick and Michael C.
Connors of the Maricopa Association of Governments - Trans-
portation and Planning Office, and to Adelbert J. Beesley of
the Pima Association of Governments - Transportation
Planning Program.
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ABSTRACT
Transportation data were collected from various Federal, state and local
transportation areas relating to the metropolitan areas of Phoenix and
Tucson, Arizona. These data were utilized to project motor vehicle
traffic levels for future time periods, and for generating inputs for
the APRAC-1A model and the Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM).
The projections were performed by analyzing over 3,000 primary traffic
links containing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for numerous roadways and
by developing traffic modification factors for each year between the
base period (1970) and fiscal year 1975. This task was further
complicated by the necessity to account for the effects of the energy
crisis.
The technique utilized included forming an automated data base of the
3,000 traffic links and coding computer programs to heuristically
test sample growth factors by comparing projected traffic counts with
recent actual data.
APRAC-1A inputs were also prepared with the aid of computer programs.
Input data consisting principally of primary traffic link data were
converted directly into the required APRAC-1A format. In addition,
another routine was developed to automatically allocate secondary
traffic to the study area in the proper format. Among the factors
considered as other model inputs were the following:
• Vehicle age distribution
• Diurnal traffic distribution
• Monthly traffic distribution
• Gasoline consumption
• Vehicle speeds
The CDM inputs were produced with the aid of data processing techniques.
Programs were coded to accumulate transportation, other area source and
point source data by grid zone and output this information in CDM format.
This technique proved to be efficient and cost-effective.
The final task in this project required the preparation of an area source
emission inventory for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons in each region.
ii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
1. INTRODUCTION 1.1
I. SCOPE OF THE PROJECT 1.1
II. TECHNICAL APPROACH 1-2
2. SOURCES OF DATA 2.1
3. DATA PREPARATION 3.1
I. PHOENIX DATA ANALYSIS 3.1
A. GROWTH FACTOR DEVELOPMENT 3.4
B. APRAC-1A DATA SET 3.8
1. GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF PROGRAM GRID 3.12
2. COMPLETION OF APRAC-1A INPUT CARDS C THROUGH M 3.13
C. COM DATA SET 3.26
1. GATHERING OF POINT SOURCE DATA 3.26
2. PROCESSING OF POINT SOURCE DATA 3.26
II. TUCSON DATA ANALYSIS 3.28
A. APRAC-1A DATA SET 3.31
B. COM DATA SET 3.35
4. PREPARATION OF NEDS AREA SOURCE FORMS 4.1
5. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1
iii
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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE PAGE
3.1 SAMPLE CODING SHEET FOR MAGTPP TRAFFIC DATA 3.2
3.2 MAGTPP COORDINATE SYSTEM AND 1972 DAILY AVERAGE TRAFFIC
COUNTS FOR PHOENIX AREA 3.3
3.3 GRAPH USED IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW DOWNTOWN GROWTH REGION . 3.6
3.4 BOUNDARIES OF SLOW DOWNTOWN GROWTH AREA 3.7
3.5 BOUNDARIES OF 1200 PRIMARY LINK AREA 3.11
3.6 LOCATION OF PHOENIX CITY CENTER 3.14
3.7 DETERMINATION OF a AND /3 FOR CO AND Y AND V FOR
HYDROCARBONS 3.16
3.8 CALCULATION OF a FOR PHOENIX STUDY AREA 3.17
3.9 SPEED CORRECTION FACTORS FROM AP-42 3.18
3.10 FAA LTO DATA FOR PHOENIX AIRPORT 3.29
3.11 EMISSION FACTORS FOR AIRCRAFT FROM AP-42 3.30
3.12 COORDINATE SYSTEM AND 1973 TRAFFIC COUNTS FOR TUCSON AREA. 3.32
3.13 CALCULATION OF
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Air quality models are computational programs by which expected concen-
trations of contaminants in the atmosphere can be calculated. In order
to utilize these models for any selected region, sufficient information
regarding pollution emissions and weather conditions must be available.
Often the appropriate classes of information are sufficient to operate
models effectively, rather than exact pollutant and meteorological
readings. Naturally, the better the quality of available data for input,
the more useful generated results are likely to be. The reliable data
processing adage of "garbage in, garbage out," is certainly relevant to
modeling applications.
I. SCOPE OF THE PROJECT
The prinicpal objective of this project was to develop area source
emission estimates for Metropolitan Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona,
with regard to carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. The emission
estimates were derived from both stationary and mobile source
information, with the latter being based primarily upon motor
vehicle traffic data.
The emission estimates were needed for two principal reasons;
firstly, to obtain an area source emissions inventory in the
National Emissions Data Systems (NEDS) format, and secondly,
to provide inputs for two air quality simulation models in order
to predict future levels of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. The
models utilized were the APRAC-1A Urban Diffusion Model and the
Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM).
The emission inventory was conducted in accordance with the basic
procedures outlined in EPA publication APTD-1135, Guide for Com-
piling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory. Emission factors were
obtained from AP-42, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors.
1.1
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Fiscal year 1975 emission estimates were developed for one square
mile grid zones covering both metropolitan regions. This infor-
mation was generated from transportation data collected from State
and local agencies.
All model inputs were coded in the appropriate format, keypunched,
manipulated as necessary to create monthly data sets, and stored
on a magnetic computer tape. This tape was delivered to the pro-
ject officer in lieu of computer cards because of the volume of
data involved.
II. TECHNICAL APPROACH
In carrying out the scope of work for this project, PES selected
an approach that was cost-effective, flexible and produced a re-
usable by-product. The approach centered on employing data pro-
cessing techniques to the greatest extent possible, given that
large amounts of data were involved, and that PES was supplied
with a magnetic tape containing primary traffic link data by the
Maricopa Association of Governments Transportation Planning
Program (MAGTPP).
This approach using data processing techniques was cost-effective
and flexible in that it generated feedback quickly and encouraged
changes to be made to traffic growth factors. The reusable by-product
is the system of computer programs that was utilized to develop
traffic levels for a future time period and produce model inputs
in the desirable formats. These routines can be employed at any
time in the future to generate model inputs from a completely
new set of traffic data. These results could be accomplished at
a fraction of the cost that would normally be expected without
using Che existing routines.
The use of these computer programs is not limited to the Phoenix
and Tuscon areas. These routines can be employed to convert data
from virtually any region into APRAC-1A and CDM inputs, provided
that the raw data is converted into a compatible format or new
data input programs are coded.
1.2
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CHAPTER 2
SOURCES OF DATA
Data necessary for successful execution of this project was princi-
pally obtained from State and County agencies in Arizona, EPA, the
Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) and a private firm, R.L. Polk and Co.
Listed below are the sources and type of all information utilized in
this project.
Data Source
Maricopa Association of Governments,
Transportation and Planning Office
City of Phoenix, Traffic Planning
Department
State of Arizona, Highway Department
City of Phoenix, Planning Department
Pima Association of Governments
Transportation Planning Program
Data Description
1) Computer tape of traffic
link for a 1970 based
network.
2) Monthly factors for traffic
distribution.
3) Daily factors for traffic
distribution.
4) Traffic volume map for 1972.
5) Records of continuous
traffic stations in the
Phoenix area.
6) Estimates of total daily
area traffic for 1972
and 1973.
1) Traffic volume map for 1972.
2) Other traffic distribution
data.
Traffic count data for State
and Federal assisted roads.
Planning and population data
for Phoenix
1) Traffic volume map for 1972.
2) Traffic distribution data
3) Population and other plan-
ning information.
2.1
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Data Source
City of Tuscon, Department of
Transportation
Federal Aviation Agency
Environmental Protection Agency
R.L. Folk and Co.
State of Arizona, Division of
Motor Vehicles
Pima County Air Pollution Control
District
Data Description
1) Traffic volume map for 1972-
73.
2) Traffic count data.
Aircraft landing and take-off
data.
Point Source Data for plants in
the Metropolitan Phoenix
and Tuscon areas.
Yearly vehicle registration
data.
Gasoline consumption data for
1972 and 1973.
Aircraft landing and take-off
data.
2.2
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CHAPTER 3
DATA PREPARATION
In order to produce a complete set of model inputs for the APRAC-1A
and COM models, it was necessary to reformat and update much of the
information gathered in the data collection phase of the project.
Prior to the use of computer programs for generation of model inputs,
certain information had to be determined. For example, traffic data
had to be analyzed to compute growth factors to be used in updating
traffic counts to FY '75. Since a slightly different technique was
used to analyze the Phoenix traffic data from that used for Tucson,
the analyses will be treated separately in this report.
I. PHOENIX DATA ANALYSIS
.The computer tape received from MAGTPP contained a set of
approximately 2400 traffic link records. The contents of a
typical record are shown in Figure 3.1. After considering
the alternatives, it was concluded that it would be cost-
effective to code the data sets for the models based on the
coordinate system which was developed and utilized by MAGTPP
rather than develop a new coordinate system. This choice
facilitated the use of the magnetic tape data and eliminated
the need for preparing coordinate conversion algorithms^
Figure 3.2 illustrates the location of the coordinate system
in the Maricopa County area.
When the traffic data tape was transmitted to PES, it was noted
that the data on the tape represented CY 1970 information. In
order to project this data to FY '75, a yearly growth factor
had to be developed to simulate traffic increases over this
period.
3.1
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Figure 3.1: SAMPLE CODING SHEET FOR MAGTPP TRAFFIC DATA
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PAGE NOT
AVAILABLE
DIGITALLY
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A. Growth Factor Development
The goal of this task was to develop one or more factors
that would accurately reflect traffic growth during the
four and one-half year period from calendar year 1970 to
fiscal year 1975. It was desired to represent the traffic
increase during this period by a simple factor as opposed to
a compound factor. The former refers to a percentage increase
value that could be applied to the 1970 data. The latter can
be applied to data for consecutive years. The distinction is
similar to the one drawn between simple and compound interest.
PES assumed that a normal growth pattern existed for the
period 1970-1973 and that a sharp reduction in the increase
in traffic occurred during the next year and one-half due to
the energy crisis. By analyzing the traffic data on hand
and comparing year to year levels in the normal period, it
appeared quite reasonable to assume a growth rate of between
8% and 10% per year. Although only minimal information was
available for the post energy crisis period, this growth rate
was hypothesized at one-quarter to one-half the normal rate.
The procedure used to determine the simple factor for the
entire period began with calculating compound factors, multi-
plying them, and converting the result to a simple factor.
The conpound factors were calculated with the aid of the
compound interest formula A = P (1 + i)n, where
A = amount or fiscal 1975 traffic
P = principal or 1970 data
i = interest rate or growth factor
n = number of years (4.5)
The formula was actually applied in stages. For the 1970-
1973 period, i was given the value 9%. Applying the com-
pound interest formula to this case yields (1.09) or 1.295,
which shows a total growth on a simple basis of 29.5%.
3.4
-------
For second period of 1.5 years, a growth rate of 3% per year
was selected. Once again, applying the formula yields (1.03)
or 1.045, which yields a total growth on a simple basis of
4.5%. Multiplying these two values together gives a 35.3%
traffic increase for the four and one-half year period. This
value converts to approximately 8% per year on a simple basis
and 7% per year on a compound basis.
To test and justify this simple growth factor of 8% per year
a set of traffic counts for calendar year 1972 was generated
by multiplying the 1970 values by 16%. The projected 1972
data was then compared to reported 1972 traffic values shown
in Figure 3.2. it was anticipated that on an overall basis
the projected results would be slightly low to account for
the higher growth rate in this period.
From a detailed inspection of the projected vs. actual data
it was noticed that traffic growth in the downtown Phoenix
area was progressing at a slower rate than that exhibited in
the surrounding areas. Accordingly, it was decided to develop
separate growth rates for the downtown and circumjacent
areas in order to more accurately reflect the actual situa-
tion. Graphs such as the one shown in Figure 3.3 were used
to study differences between projected and reported traffic
counts on individual links. Inspections of sets of these
graphs resulted in the project staff fixing a boundary around
the "slow growth" downtown region. This boundary is illus-
trated in Figure 3.4.
Given this concept of two distinct traffic regions, traffic
growth factors had to be determined for each of these two
areas. Again employing the 1970 data as a basis, detailed
analysis was conducted for the two distinct areas producing
simple factors of 3.6% and 9% per year for the downtown and
suburban areas, respectively. The combination of these two
3.5
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IY-COORDS
NOTE: A + VALUE INDICATES PROJECTED TRAFFIC GREATER THAN 1972 REPORTED
A - VALUE INDICATES PROJECTED TRAFFIC LESS THAN 1972 REPORTED
U)
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26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Figure 3.3: GRAPH USED IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW DOWNTOWN GROWTH REGION
X-COORDS
-------
AVERAGE
WEEKDAY TRAFFIC
Figure 3.4: BOUNDARIES OF SLOW DOWNTOWN GROWTH AREA
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values still resulted in the 8% per year figure for the
entire region.
B. APRAC-1A Data Set
Once the growth rates had been determined, it was possible to em-
ploy data processing techniques to produce APRAC-1A primary
traffic inputs for FY '75 from the available data. A com-
puter program entitled PHX75 was coded to accomplish this
task. Documentation for this program can be found in
Appendix A. Basically, this program accepts a set of traffic
link records as input and produces an APRAC-1A primary link
record set in Card N format as output. Necessary information
which must be provided on the input records includes:
1) Node number or (x,y) coordinates of starting point
2) Node number or (x,y) coordinates of end point
3) Distance between nodes or end points of links
4) Vehicle count for some known time period
5) Average speed or road type
In this particular application of the program, records from
the 1970 data base were examined and processed individually.
First, the node numbers of the end points of each link were
located in a computer file and the (x,y) coordinates of the
end points were extracted from this file. Since these coor-
dinates were listed in miles, they were multiplied by a
factor of 100 to change their units to hundredths of miles
as required by APRAC-1A. Based on these coordinates, it was
determined whether the link lay in the "slow-growth" down-
town area, or in the suburban area of the region. The two
fields containing one-way directional count figures were
added together and multiplied by a growth factor according
to the area in which the link res.ided.
Next, the field containing the speed category code was ex-
amined. The program assigned an APRAC-1A traffic code number
according to the scheme shown in Table 3.1.
3.8
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Table 3.1: SPEED CATEGORY CODES UNSED IN PHOENIX STUDY AREA
Phoenix Speed Type of Road Average Speed APRAC-1A Traffic
Category Code on Link (mi/hr.) Code Number
A Freeway 45 1
B Urban Expressway 37 2
C Urban Major Street 27 3
D Urban Minor Street 22 4
E Grand Avenue 22 5
F Rural Major Street 27 3
G Urban Connector 20 6
H Rural Connector 20 6
J CBD* Major Street 22 7
K Rural Minor Street 27 8
*Central Business District
3.9
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Finally, the length of the link was extracted from the
"distance" field. This figure also had to be multiplied by
100 to give units of hundredths of miles as required by
APRAC-1A format. Using this newly generated information, a
series of properly formatted APRAC-1A primary links was
created and output.
The only problem left to be resolved was that approximately
2400 links were generated from the 1970 data, and only 1200
could be utilized for the APRAC-1A input data set. It was
determined that a central area of the study region would be
defined, as illustrated in Figure 3.5, which contained about 1200
links. Other links outside of this central area would be
allocated to secondary traffic grids. The main advantage of
this plan was that traffic emissions could be concentrated
in a central area, rather than scattered throughout the area.
A number of alternatives were considered for the generation
of secondary traffic data. Since in normal usage of the APRAC-
1A program, secondary traffic accounts for only 5-10% of the
total traffic occurring in a region, the method of allocation
need not be extremely precise. Methods of allocation based
on population, estimated gasoline consumption, or eyeballing
of street density from local maps may be used. In the Phoenix/
Tucson study regions, however, it was found that secondary
traffic occurred in higher percentages. One reason for this
situation was the 1200 extra primary links which were added
to the secondary traffic grids. Consequently, a more precise
allocation method was desired.
The method employed was based on the assumption that dense
secondary traffic occurs in given areas in the same percentages
that dense primary traffic occurs. Secondary traffic densities
were computed by a program entitled GRID.
3.10
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AVERAGE
WEEKDAY TRAFFIC
VAIOK slums
Figure 3.5: BOUNDARIES OF 1200 PRIMARY LINK AREA
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1. General Description of Program GRID
This program takes the primary link data prepared in
APRAC-1A format, and allocates the daily vehicle miles
travelled (VMT) on these links to a grid system overlaying
the region of interest. The method used by the program
to allocate link traffic begins by determining the end point
of each primary traffic link that has a location furthest
to the west. This point is designated as occupying position
"A". This process reduces the number of possible link
orientations which must be considered by the program. Next,
the grid zone in which this "A" end point lies is determined
and the coordinates of the center point of this grid are re-
tained. The mathematical slope of the link is then calcu-
lated and examined. If the link is vertically oriented
(i.e., has a north-south direction), its slope is infinite,
and program control is passed to a separate routine for
processing.
Basically, the processing of all links consists of moving
along the link path until a grid line is encountered. At
this point, the link is divided into two segments - one
inside the original grid and the remainder of the link out-
side. VMT are then allocated to the first grid area by
multiplying the vehicle count for the link by the length
of the segment inside the grid. A new "A" end point is then
taken to be the intersection of the link with the grid line,
and once again, the link path is traced from the new "A" end
point until a grid line is intersected, or the other end
point of the link is reached. This process continues, with
new "A" end points being created as necessary, until the
entire length of the link has been apportioned.
In addition, the program has the capability of determining
if a link coincides with a grid line, and allocating half
of the VMT to each grid immediately on either side of the link.
3.12
-------
When all the links In the APRAC-1A primary traffic data
set have been allocated in the described manner, the total
primary traffic is calculated by accumulating the VMT by
grid zone. The percentage of secondary traffic occurring
in each grid is then computed by dividing the individual
zone VMT value by the total traffic link VMT for the
region. In order to represent that some amount of second-
ary traffic occurs throughout the area, a minimum value
of total secondary traffic volume is allocated to each grid.
The percentages are integerized and multiplied by a factor
of 100 to ensure that the lowest percentage shown is
greater than zero. The output of this part of the program
consists of the (x,y) coordinates of the center point of
each grid zone and the associated percentage of the total
secondary traffic. For further documentation of GRID, see
Appendix A.
2. Completion of APRAC-1A Input Cards C Through M
To complete the APRAC-1A data set, the basic input infor-
mation to be shown on cards C-M had to be determined.
Each of these input cards is discussed individually below.
a. Card C
SLAT - City latitude =33.0 degrees North Latitude
from Arizona map
POP - City population = 1.174 million
1970 Census figure for Phoenix Urban Area
= 863,357
Growth figure to July, 1974 =1 + (-08 x 4.5) = x 1.36
1975 projected figure = 1,174,000
(XXT,YYT) = City Center location = (33.80, 30.20)
(See Figure 3.6)
3.13
-------
•fe/M^^h.
CITY OF PHOENIX. ARIZONA. PLANNING DEPARTMENT - 251 WEST WASHINGTON
''- ~J "•"•'—ii Mi nil
CENTER OF
PHOENIX
POPULATION
I LJ * ! I - B B S
pro1 i I 8 i i i l
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Figure 3.6: LOCATION OF PHOENIX CITY CENTER
3.14
-------
CLE = City's total amount of secondary traffic
equal to CLE percent of primary = 89.06
total secondary VMT = 8,018,304
total primary VMT = 9,004,488
CLE = 8.018,304 „ _ R Ofi
9,004,488 X 10° ' 89-°6
PF1 = value fora = 667.0 ,_ _,. _ ., * •> 0\
(See Figures 3.7 and 3.8)
PF2 = value f or p = -0.85
b. Calculation of Q and ft
The APRAC-lA program calculates carbon monoxide
emissions from mobile traffic sources using the for-
mula,
E =ffSP (1)
where S is the average speed on the roadway in miles
per hour, E is the emission factor in grams of CO per
mile, and a and p are constants determined from the
f
vehicle mix of the study area. In order to calculate
a value for p, a correction factor,.vis defined, such
that
v- SP (2)
Values for v are plotted in EPA documents AP-42,
"Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors." This
plot is shown in Figure 3.9. From the note in Figure 3.9,
it is assumed that these values for v are valid for a
current vehicle mix. Equation (2) can be manipulated
to the form
In v =0(ln S) (2a)
A plot of In vversus In S yields a straight line of the
form
y = mx + b (2b)
3.15
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>
1
kl
0
1C
D
=
-
i
i
"1
1 !
'. '•
.
t- '
-H
i
_j-
i
1
|
1 1
•
'
!
:
ii
. :
:
"i i
,
S (mi/hr)
59.9
45.1
30.0
19.6
15.1
Correction Factors
CO HC
Vl
0.39
0.50
0.68
1.00
1.26
V2
0.48
0.59
0.78
1.00
1.19
In S
4.09268
3.80888
3.40120
2.97553
2.71469
In V
-0.94161
-0.69315
-0.38566
0.0
0.2311
lnV2
-0.73397
-0.52763
-0.24846
0.0
0.17395
Calculation of a and
for CO
Calculation of Y and A
for HC
-.94161- .23111
4.09268-2.71469
- -0.85 -
a x (19.6)"0'85 - E
-0.85 (In 19.6) - In (E/a)
0.080 - E/a
a - E
0.080
-.73397- .17395 __ A
"2 " 4.09268-2.71469 * <)'6(
Y x (19.6)'0-66 - E
-0.66 (In 19.6) - In (E/V)
0.141 - E/
Y - E
0.141
Figure 3.7: DETERMINATION OF a AND @ FOR CO AND X AND A FOR HYDROCARBONS
3.16
-------
Light-Duty Vehicles
pre 1968
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973-74
1975
Heavy Duty Gas
pre 1970
1970-75
Heavy Duty Diesel
All
Cars
238,
44,
51,
48,
46,
56,
102,
50,
,680
,662
,023
,041
,368
,277
,943
,338
Trucks Total %
64,
7,
10,
10,
10,
15,
26,
12,
367
650
243
589
455
634
730
056
Vehicles %
19,
19,
,830
,368
2
2
Vehicles %
15:
,358
1
303,
52,
61,
58,
56,
71,
129,
62,
of Total
.33126
.27694
of Total
.80552
047
312
266
630
823
911
673
394
35.
6.
7.
62693
14992
20257
6.89268
6.
8.
15.
7.
68024
45403
24467
33518
EF
87
46
39
36
34
19
19
12.5
EF
140
130
EF
20.4
Emission
30.
2.
2.
2.
2.
1.
2.
•
995429
8289632
8090023
4813648
2712816
6062657
8964873
9168975
Emission
3.
2.
263764
960022
Emission
.
370366
From Figure 3.7,
Total Emission = 53.39984
o =
0.08
667
53.39984
0.08
Figure 3.8: CALCULATION OF a FOR PHOENIX STUDY AREA
3.17
-------
20
AVERAGE ROUTE SPEED, km/hr
40 60 80
100
120
1.5
ce
o
o
LU
K
DC
O
U
1 0
*•"
0.5
T
T
- NOTE: CURVES DEVELOPED FROM TESTS OF PRE 1968 (UNCONTROLLED) VEHICLES. RECENT -
TESTS INDICATE THEIR APPROXIMATE APPLICABILITY TO CONTROLLED VEHICLES INCLUDING
THOSE EQUIPPED WITH CATALYTIC DEVICES. UPDATED CURVES ARE PLANNED IN FUTURE
- ADDITIONS TO THIS DOCUMENT.
I
I
I
I I
I
15 30 45
AVERAGE ROUTE SPEED, m^r
Figure 3.9: SPEED CORRECTION FACTORS FROM AP-42
60
3.18
-------
where y = In v
x = In S
b = o
m = P
The slope of this line as plotted in Figure 3.7 can
be taken as the value of p.
Equation (1) can now be rewritten in the form
E =ov (3)
It is now desirable to determine a value for or such
that the value for E obtained from equation (3) is
reflective of the vehicle mix of the study area.
Vehicle registration counts by year for passenger cars
and trucks were obtained for Maricopa County from the
Motor Statistical Division of R.L. Polk & Co. These
counts contained registration statistics up to July
1, 1973, so that the first problem encountered was to
project these figures to reflect an FY '75 vehicle
mix. This projection was based upon two assumptions:
1) The number of vehicles added to the mix by the
latest model year is equal to about 10% of the
total number of vehicles in the mix for the previous
year.
2) Each model year except the current year loses about
1% of its previous year's figure.
For example:
73 5,000 74 1,940
72 4,900 73 4,950
71 4,800 72 4,851
70 4.700 71 4,752
19 400 7° *'653
iy> UU 21,146
Given '73 Projected '74
vehicle mix vehicle mix
3.19
-------
When these assumptions were used on the available
data in Phoenix and Tucson, an approximate growth
of about 9% per year was observed in the total number
of vehicles in the mix. One other assumption was
made when dealing with truck registration statistics.
It was assumed that the truck population could be di-
vided into three categories as follows:
Light-duty gas powered (pickup trucks) 74%
Heavy-duty gas powered 19%
Heavy-duty diesel powered 7%
These figures are based on nationwide statistics found
in 1973 American Trucking Trends. Employing these
three assumptions, PES was able to project a complete
vehicle mix for FY '75. Then utilizing emission fac-
tors found in the EPA emission factors document AP-42,
(See Table 3.2), an average emission factor, E, was calcu-
lated for the particular mix. Substituting this value
in equation (3) yields a value for a. This process
is illustrated in Figure 3.8.
c. Card D
The question of the determination of gasoline consump-
tion rates by sectors was discussed in a telephone
conversation with Dr. F.L. Ludwig of the Stanford
Research Institute. Dr. Ludwig indicated that this
sector data was necessary to calculate the extra-urban
contribution to the CO concentrations in the study
region. However, he related that this contribution is
on the order of a tenth of a part per million, and that
this does not justify the effort required to obtain the
necessary gasoline consumption data. Therefore, he
recommended that values of 0.0 be assigned to these
variables.
3.20
-------
NJ
Table 3.2: AVERAGE EMISSION FACTORS FOR HIGHWAY VEHICLES BASED ON NATIONWIDE STATISTICS3
Year
1965
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1990
S^nrUtnn
Carbon
monoxide
g/mi
89
78
74
68
62
56
50
42
36
31
26
22
14
g/km
55
48
46
42
39
35
31
26
22
19
16
14
8.7
Hydrocarbons
Exhaust
g/mi
9.2
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.1
5.5
4.9
4.2
3:6
3.1
2.7
2.4
1.6
g/km
57
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.8
3.4
3.0
2.6
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.5
0.99
Crankcase and
evaporation
g/mi
5.8
3.9
3.5
2.9
2.4
2.0
1.5
1.3
1 0
083
0.67
0.53
0.38
g/km
3.6
2.4
2.2
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.93
0.81
0.62
0.52
0.42
0.33
0.24
Nitrogen
oxides
(NOX as N02)
g/mi
4.8
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.2
3.7
3.4
3.1
2.2
g/km
3.0
33
34
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.4
Participates
Exhaust
g/mi
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
Q.38
g/km
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
Tire wear
g/mi 1
0.20
020
0.20
020
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
g/km
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
d.lfur
auiTur
oxides (S02>
g/mi
020
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
g/nm
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
aMotor Vehicle Emission Factors From AP-42
NOTE: This table does not reflect ,nt.nm standards promulgated by the EPA Adm.nistrator on April 11, 1973. These standards w.ll be
incorporated in the next revision to this section.
-------
d. Card E
S(I) = Car speeds for up to eight road types derived
from the Maricopa County Traffic Network Coding
Manual;
= 45.0 Freeway
= 37.0 Urban expressway
= 27.0 Urban, rural major street
= 22.0 Urban minor street
= 22.0 Grand Avenue
- 20.0 Urban, rural connector
=22.0 CBD major street
= 27.0 Rural minor street
e. CardsF-K - Description of hourly traffic characteristics
Card F KT(I) = Whether hour of day is peak (=1) or
off-peak (=2)
Card G PT12(I) = Fraction of daily traffic in each
hour for weekdays, and for Road
Types 1 and 2
Card H PT34(I)= Fraction of daily traffic in each
hour for weekdays, and for Road
Types 3, 4, and 5
Card I PT6(I) = Fraction of daily traffic in each
hour for weekdays, and for the
street model
Card J PTSAT(I) = Fraction of daily traffic in each
hour for Saturdays, and for all
Road Types
Card K PTSUN(I) = Fraction of daily traffic in each
hour for Sundays, and for all
Road Types.
3.22
-------
The derivation of these factors was based on data
provided by the City of Phoenix Traffic Engineering
Department and MAGTPP. Table 3.3 shows a typical
hourly traffic breakdown for an average weekday.
Data was not available which differentiated daily
traffic by road type, so the same hourly factors were
used for PT12(I) and PT34(I). In conversations with
Dr. F.L. Ludwig of Stanford Research Institute, it
was indicated that about four hours during the day
should be designated as "peak" hours. He also re-
lated that 7% would be a reasonable cut-off point be-
tween "peak" and "off-peak" hours. These criteria
were followed in the assignment of values to KT(I).
Daily factors and hourly factors were developed from
statistical analyses of county station count data.
The hourly factors assigned to PTSAT(I) and PTSUN(I)
reflect a drop in traffic for Saturdays and Sundays
based on the developed daily factors. (See Table 3.4)
f. Cards L, M
Preparation of these cards is straight forward. The
following holidays were coded for FY '75.
July 4, 1974
September 2, 1974 (Labor Day)
November 28, 1974 (Thanksgiving)
December 25, 1974 (Christmas)
January 1, 1975
February 12, 1975 (Lincoln's Birthday)
February 17, 1975 (Washington's Birthday)
March 30, 1975 (Easter)
May 26, 1975 (Memorial Day)
3.23
-------
OJ
Figure 3.12: COORDINATE SYSTEM AND 1973 TRAFFIC COUNTS FOR TUCSON AREA
-------
Table 3.3: HOURLY TRAFFIC BREAKDOWN FOR PHEONIX AREA
December U, 1973
PHOENIX TRAFFIC ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
HOURLY PER CEIIT OF TWEftTT-FOUR-HOUR VOLUME
Monday-thru-Friday averages
12 - 1AM
1-2
2-3
3-4
4- 5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10 - 11
11 - 12
12 - 1PM
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11 - 12
0
. at four master stations in
| 1.1 March, April, and May 1973.
1 0.7
] 0.3
-j 0.3
,10
| 4.2
17.1
| 5.8
|4.9
1 5.1
| 5.4
|5.7
1 5.4
|6.2
1 7.1
| 8.1
1 7.8
(5.9
| 5.0
|4.0
|3.4
|2.7
•
| 2.0
£CB
2 4 ' 6 ' 8 ' 10
PERCENT
3.24
-------
Table 3.A: VALUES FOR APRAC-1A INPUT CARDS F-K
IT(I)
PT12(I)
PT34(I)
PT6(I)
PTSAT(I)
PTSUN(I)
I
KT(I)
PT12(I)
PT34(I)
PT6(I)
PTSAT(I)
PTSUN(I)
I
KT(I)
PT12(I)
PT34(I)
PT6(I)
PTSAT(I)
PTSUN(I)
2
.011
.011
.011
.0219
.0215
9
2
.058
.058
.058
.0381
.0190
17
1
.081
.081
.081
.0588
.0494
2
.007
.007
.007
.0152
.0169
10
2
.049
.049
.049
.0468
.0331
18
1
.078
.078
.078
.0551
.0472
2
.003
.003
.003
.0080
.0080
11
2
.051
.051
.051
.0527
.0385
19
2
.059
.059
.059
.0529
.0447
2
.003
.003
.003
.0047
.0048
12
2
.054
.054
.054
.0563
.0438
20
2
.050
.050
.050
.0476
.0405
2
.004
.004
.004
.0038
.0033
13
2
.057
.057
.057
.0607
.0575
21
2
.040
.040
.040
.0381
.0347
2
.015
.015
.015
.0087
.0048
14
2
.054
.054
.054
.0572
.0495
22
2
.034
.034
.034
.0313
.0292
2
.042
.042
.042
.0185
.0090
15
2
.062
.062
.062
.0561
.0482
23
2
.027
.027
.027
.0298
.0230
1
.071
.071
.071
.0298
.0131
16
1
.071
.071
.071
.0562
.0493
24
2
.020
.020
.020
.0274
.0170
3.25
-------
C. COM Data Set
The presentation of the COM set differed from the APRAC-
1A in that point source emissions were included as well as
area source emissions. In addition, this data was prepared
for reactive hydrocarbons as well as carbon monoxide.
1. Gathering of Point Source Data
The required data for the development of the point source
input cards for the CDM was obtained from the EPA Regional
Office in San Francisco. The EPA files containing National
Emissions Data System (NEDS) data forms for Maricopa and
Pima Counties were searched for information prepared for
each point source. From the NEDS forms, data pertaining
to CO and hydrocarbon emission estimates, stack data, and
UTM coordinates of point locations were obtained. Data
was extracted for all point sources emitting one ton per
year or more of CO or hydrocarbons. For the most part,
the major sources consisted of petroleum product storage
tanks, power plants, and users of organic solvents for
the manufacture of electronic components.
2. Processing of Point Source Data
In order to prepare acceptable input data for the CDM, the
NEDS information had to be manipulated into the specified
set of units and formats. To accomplish this task a com-
puter program called POINT was coded to read in the data
extracted from EPA files, convert each item to metric units
and print a record in CDM input format. Documentation for
this program can be found in Appendix A. For a larger
scale project, this program could be modified to examine
any NEDS data base, extract sources which emit the pollu-
tants being studied, and produce a set of point source in-
puts in correct CDM format.
3.26
-------
The preparation of the area source data for CDM included
the allocation of mobile source emissions to the same
grid system that was used for APRAC-1A secondary traffic.
The program GRID was set up to produce this area source
data. Grid uses the same procedure to allocate
traffic emissions as was used to allocate secondary
traffic. The CDM input data, however, is given in terms
of actual emissions instead of vehicle miles traveled
(VMT). Therefore, as each link is allocated to a grid
the emission rate is calculated according to the following
formula:
E = (Q-SP) x VMT
86400
where
E^ = emission rate in grams CO/second
0 = emission constant for CO based on vehicle mix
P = emission constant for CO based on vehicle mix
S = speed in miles per hour
VMT = vehicle miles traveled as calculated by program
A set of emission factor constants is also input for hydro-
carbon emissions and another emission rate is calculated
according to
E = (VSV) x VMT
86400
where
EZ = emission rate in grams HC/second
Y = emission constant for HC based on vehicle mix
V = emission constant for HC based on vehicle mix
This process is followed for each primary link in the
area to give an emission rate for each grid based on pri
mary traffic. The data generated for percent of total
secondary traffic is used to calculate secondary traffic
contributions to emissions in each grid. For this calcu-
lation an average speed of 19.6 miles per hour is used.
3.27
-------
These two emissions are added together to give total
emissions due to traffic for each grid.
In addition, the program is set up to accept input data
for airport emissions. At the present time, data can be
input for two airports in the study region. The program
can be easily modified to accept more airport data if
necessary. It is assumed that up to ten grids for e'ach
airport can be designated for an equal portion of the
total emissions from the airport. To calculate the air-
port emissions which should be added to the appropriate
grids, data for landing and take-off cycles (LTOs) was
obtained from Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) tower
information. An example of this type of information is
shown in Figure 3.10. After contacting FAA personnel and
other supplementory data sources, it was possible to cate-
gorize these LTOs into the 12 classes shown in Figure 3.11
from EPA publication AP-42. Using EPA emission factors
and FAA overall growth projections, total emissions due to
aircraft LTOs were calculated for each airport. These
total emissions were then allocated equally to the selected
grids and added to the previously calculated automobile
traffic emissions. The program's final function was to
output a source record in CDM card 100 format for each
grid in the study area.
II. TUCSON DATA ANALYSIS
For the most part, the same procedures used for Phoenix to prepare
the APRAC-1A and CDM data sets were utilized in Tucson. The pur-
pose of this section, then, is to point out and discuss any changes
in the methodology employed in Tucson from that summarized in the
Phoenix discussion above.
3.28
-------
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334P/6I* 03.61
8V^14l» CS.6I
4245341* O4.fi|
120614)* 09.0)
34 IKO! I » 0~>.4|
4 141 || I 14.7)
4347221* C7.3I
1264241* 11.11
3469J5I* 07.31
"H1Z<,|» 20.11
445LJ5I* 09.91
13249?|* 20.61
312595|» 15.31
1161511* 44.31
4894511* 20.81
159fllbl* 45.5)
379KU* 17.4
1Z3704)» 51.1
5011971* 23.7
1674891* 52.4
331/6. (• C2.6|
7642'jl- Ot.5l
402U44I- 00.4)
1179641* 07. 3)
3407^21*05.4)
713HII- 12. 1]
4COB3PI- OC.-5I
1Z6693I* f>.3l
OU.3)
66670)- IP. 51
39t8?6|- 01. 4|
1360611* 23. 8|
3593(81* 11.21
f>227j(- 23. tt|
396t>32l- 01.9)
146137)* 33.0)
3<>
-------
(Ib/engine and kg/engine)
EMISSION FACTOR RATING: B
u>
o
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Aircarft
Jumbo jet
Long range jet
Medium range jet
Air carrier
turboprop
Business jet
General aviation
turboprop
General aviation
piston
Piston transport
Helicopter
Military transport
Military jut
Military piston'
Solid
participates3
Ib
1.30
1.21
0.41
1.1
0.11
0.20
0.02
0.56
0.25
1.1
0.31
028
kg
059
0.55
0.19
0.49
0.05
0.09
0.01
0.25
0.11
0.49
014
0.13
Sulfur
oxidesd
Ib
1.82
1.56
1.01
0.40
0.37
0.18
0.014
0.28
0.18
0.41
0.76
0.14
kg
083
0.71
0.46
0.18
0.17
0.08
0.006
0.13
0.08
0.19
0.35
0.04
Carbon
monoxide6
Ib
46.8
47.4
17.0
6.6
15.8
3.1
12.2
304.0
5.7
5.7
15.1
152.0
kg
21.2
21.5
7.71
3.0
7.17
1.4
5.5
138.0
2.6
2.6
6.85
69.0
Hydrocarbons6
Ib
12.2
41.2
4.9
2.9
3.6
1.1
0.40
40.7
0.52
2.7
9.93
20.4
kg
5.5
18.7
2.2
1.3
1.6
0.5
0.18
18.5
0.24
1.2
4.5
9.3
Nitrogen
oxidesd (NOX as N02)
Ib
31.4
79
10.2
2.5
1 6
1.2
0047
0.40
057
22
3.29
0.20
kg
14.2
3.6
4.6
1.1
0.73
0.54
0021
0.18
0.26
1.0
1.49
0.09
Figure 3.11: EMISSION FACTORS FOR AIRCRAFT FROM AP-42
-------
A. APRAC - 1A Data Set
Unlike the Phoenix data, no traffic counts for Tucson were
available in machine readable format. Therefore, the method
for preparing the APRAC-lA primary link data for Phoenix was
not applicable in Tucson. A map was provided by the City of
Tucson Traffic Department which contained link count data for
the major traffic arteries in the Tucson area. A date was
given for each link showing when that particular count had
been taken. After examining the data available for Tucson,
it appeared to be reasonable to use the same simple growth
factor of 8% per year that had been derived previously for
Phoenix. All of the counts were updated to give projected
figures for FY '75. A coordinate system was devised whic'i
was similar to that used for Phoenix as shown in Figure 3.12.
At this point, it was possible to code by hand all of the
primary links in the study area in APRAC-1A format. With
additional link information obtained from the Pima Associa-
tion of Governments Transportation Planning Program (PAGTPP)
a total of 455 primary links were coded for the study area.
The input information needed for cards C-M is discussed below.
1. Card C
SLAT - City latitude = 32.0 degrees
POP - City population = 396,000
1970 census figure for the Tucson urban area
= 290,661
Growth figure to July, 1974 = 1 + (.08 x 4.5) = 1.36
1975 projected figure = 396,000
(XXT.YYT) = City center location = (53.20, 52.65)
CLE = City's total amount of secondary traffic
equal to CLE per cent of primary = 51.80
total secondary VMT = 2,670,095
total primary VMT = 5,154,486
CLE = 2670095
5154486
3.31
x 100 = 51.80
-------
OJ
•
OJ
Central Uunlnem, District iCIiD) ln»e
TUCSON AHEA
1973
TRAFFIC VOLUMES
S5555555556666
123456789012345&78901234
Figure 3.12: COORDINATE SYSTEM AND 1973 TRAFFIC COUNTS FOR TUCSON AREA
-------
PF1 = value fora- 670.0j(See Figures 3 ? and
PF2 = value forp= -0.85|
2. Card E
S(I) = Car speeds for up to eight road types
= 15.0 Urban minor street
= 30.0 Urban major street
= 40.0 Rural major street
= 55.0 Freeway
3. Card L-M
The following holidays were coded for FY '75
July 4, 1974
September 2, 1974(Labor Day)
November 11, 1974 (Rodeo Day)
November 28, 1974 (Thanksgiving)
December 25, 1974 (Christmas)
January 1, 1975
February 14, 1975 (Valentine's Day)
February 17, 1975 (Washington's Birthday)
March 30, 1975 (Easter)
May 26, 1975 (Memorial Day)
3.33
-------
Light Duty Vehicles
pre 1968
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973-74
1975
Heavy Duty Gas
pre 1970
1970-75
Heavy Duty Diesel
All
Cars
90,874
15,515
17,718
16,376
15,879
18,974
38,655
18,313
Vehicles
6,929
6,394
Vehicles
5,229
Trucks
21,203
2,425
3,449
3,475
3,495
5,450
8,389
4,102
% of Total
2.2875
2.11085
% of Total
1.72627
Total
112,077
17,940
21,230
19,851
18,374
24,424
47,044
22,415
% EF
37.00046 87
5.9226 46
7.00875 39
6,55349 36
6.39602 34
8.0632 19
15.53083 19
7.39996 12.5
EF
140
130
El
20.4
Emission
32.1904
2.724396
2.7334125
2.3592564
2.1746468
1.532008
2.9508577
.924995
Emission
3.2025
2.7441
Emission
.0352144
Total Emission = 53.571784
From Figure 3.7
a = E
0.08
°= 670
53.571784
0.08
Figure 3.13: CALCULATION OF a FOR TUCSON STUDY AREA
3.34
-------
B. COM Data Set
Preparation of the COM data set for Tucson was very similar
to that for the Phoenix area. Point source data was obtained
from the Pima County NEDS file at the EPA regional offices
and was processed by the POINT computer routine. Point
source records in CDM format were combined with area source
records produced by the GRID computer routine. The area
source emissions were given for one square mile zonesand
included contributions from primary traffic links, secondary
traffic, Tucson International Airport and Davis-Monthan Air
Force Base. Emission factor constants or, p , V andY were
developed from project vehicle mix information in an identi-
cal manner as the development for Phoenix.
3.35
-------
CHAPTER 4
PREPARATION OF NEDS AREA SOURCE FORMS
County Numbers
Pima -0620
Maricopa - 0440
Gasoline Fuel Usage and VMT
Maricopa County -
Total Gas and Diesel Consumed in Gallons (Ariz. Tax Dept., Motor
Vehicle Division, Monthly
Reports
January 73 50,704,568
February 73 51,579,841
March 73 54,171,386
April 73 51,605,642
May 73 49,043,520
June 73 51,011,797
July 73 50,416,697
August 73 50,810,139
September 73 48,391,382
October 73 51,013,109
November 73 53,468,065
December 73 49.537.450
611,753,450 gallons (gas and diesel)
consumed in 1973
From US DOT publication 1972 Highway Statistics, 10.2% of this is
diesel. 62,398,851 gallons diesel consumed in 1973.
This leaves 549,354,600 gallons of gas consumed in '73.
From APTD-1135, "Guide for Compiling an Emission Inventory", we
find that an average factor of 12.2 mpg can be used to determine
gas VMT.
This gives 6,702,126,100 VMT due to gas vehicles
4.1
-------
From APTD-1135
11% of this or 737,233,870 VMT is due to heavy duty gas vehicles
and 89% or 5,964,892,200 VMT is due to light duty gas vehicles
Also using APTD-1135 factors, we obtain
737,233,870 miles/year r 8.4 S=T = 87,765,936 gallons gas
consumed by heavy duty
vehicles
5,964,892,200 miles/year T 13.6 = 461,588,660 gallons gas
gallon consumed by light
duty vehicles
Total VMT = 6,702,126,100 + diesel VMT
= 6,702,126,100 + 62,398,851 - x 5.1
= 7,020,360,230 VMT
This can be divided into urban and rural VMT
VMT
Urban VMT = 15,521,882 VMT/day x 365 day/year = 5,665,486,900
Rural VMT = 7,020,360,230 - 5,665,486,900 = 1,354,873,300
Pima County
Using same factors and procedure as before we have,
Total gas and diesel fuel consumed in 1973 in gallons
January 73 17,235,306
February 73 20,222,716
March 73 19,433,835
April 73 18,222,534
May 73 17,803,397
June 73 18,682,090
July 73 17,304,510
August 73 18,667,729
September 73 16,551,274
October 73 19,112,466
November 73 18,692,095
December 73 17.178.068
219,106,040 gallons (gas and diesel)
consumed in '73.
4.2
year
VMT
year
-------
Diesel gallons consumed = 219,106,040 xlO.2 = 22,348,816 gallons
This leaves 196,757,220 gallons gas consumed in '73
This gives 196,757,220 gal/yr x 12.2 mile/gal = 2,400,437,800
VMT due to gas vehicles
of which
11% or 264,048,150 is heavy duty VMT
and 89% or 2,136,389,600 is light duty VMT
This then gives,
264,048,150 4 8.4 = 31,434,303 gallons gas consumed
by heavy duty vehicles
and 2,136,389,600 SSi T 13.6 |gn = 165,322,920 gallons gas con-
sumed by light duty
vehicles
Total VMT = 2,400,437,800 + Diesel VMT
= 2,400,437,800 + 22,348,816 B«llona x 5.1
year gallon
= 2,514,418,800 VMT/year
This can be divided into Urban and Rural VMT
Urban VMT = 6,709,839 ^E x 365 ^- = 2,449,091,400 VMT/year
Rural VMT = 2,514,418,800 - 2,449,091,400 = 65,327,400 VMT/year
Population
Maricopa - Pop = 967,552 Density Code = 9 ,„ ,_,. .
/From 1970 \
Pima - Pop = 351,667 Density Code = 8 \Census data/ .
Aircraft
Maricopa Operations
Military
4075
3847
63
76
8061
4031
Civil
200,603
66,373
43,568
119,118
429,662
214,831
Commercial
93457
0
7
0
93,464
46,732
Phoenix Itinerant
Phoenix Local
PHX-Litch Itinerant
PHX-Litch Local
Total Operations
Total LTOs
4.3
-------
Pima Operations
Military Civil Commercial
Tucson Itinerant
Tucson Local
Davis-Monthan
18,348 66,507 16,486 Total LTOs
4.4
-------
CHAPTER 5
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Performance of this project was facilitated by excellent data avail-
ability from numerous agencies, especially within the State of Arizona.
These organizations generously provided large amounts of data to PES
relating to motor vehicle transportation sources and other modes of
travel. These data pertained to the Phoenix and Tuscon metropolitan
areas in the vast majority.
PES staff was presented with a two-fold problem. In the first place,
these data had to be closely examined and organized before they could
be set up for model input. This function was complicated by the fact
that much of the data were found to overlap. Care had to be taken
to prevent extraneous or repeated information from being coded.
The second problem was unsolvable in the course of this contract since
it was beyond the scope of this effort. It concerns identifying the
sensitivity of various model input parameters. For example, grid size is
a case in point. For any given region in which APRAC-1A is to be utilized,
what is the optimum grid zone size? As grid size decreases, does the model
tend to be more accurate? Additionally, one might ask, how should traffic
data be divided among primary and secondary traffic? Which category has
a greater effect upon model predictability?
The main purpose behind raising these questions is to promote an
effort to determine the procedures that should be applied to achieve
the most effective model results on a cost-benefit basis. Accordingly,
it would be helpful to know which parameters affect output most sig-
nificantly so that those charged with the responsibility to prepare
model inputs be aware as to how to best apply their efforts. If such
information is not currently available, PES recommends that such a
study be undertaken.
5.1
-------
APPENDIX A
FLOWCHARTS AND INPUT VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS FOR:
GRID
POINT
PHX 75
A.I
-------
( START )
'INPUT BASIC
INFORMATION
(CARDS 1-5 >J
PROCESS POINT
SOURCE INFO.
FOR CDM
(see POINT)
<
] OUTPUT POINT/
SOURCE CARDS/
IN CDM FORMAT/
CALCULATE MAX.
NUMBER OF GRIDS
IN STUDY AREA.
«1800)
SET ALL MEM-
BERS OF OUTPUT
ARRAYS TO ZERO
FLOWCHART FOR PROGRAM GRID (PAGE 1 OF 5)
A.2
-------
G>
DETERMINE GRID
BOUNDARIES FOR
SELECTED COORD.
'SYSTEM
INPUT
PRIMARY LINK
IN APRAC
FORMAT
SET INDICATORS
IJX = 0
IJY = 0
IT = 0
COMPUTE
EMISSION FACTORS
FOR
CQAffll HC
NTIRE LINK
IE IN STUD
ORIENT LINK
SO THAT LEFT-
MOST END-POINT
IS IN "A" POSITION
DETERMINE
X-COORDINATE OF
GRID CONTAINING
"A" END-POINT
DETERMINE
Y-COORDINATE OF
GRID CONTAINING
END-POINT
FLOWCHART FOR PROGRAM GRID
iPAGE 2 of 5)
CHANGE LINK END-
POINTS TO LIE
ENTIRELY WITHIN
STUDY AREA
IS
-POINT ON A
VERTICLE GRID
LINE?
SET IJX
INDICATOR
EQUAL TO 1
A.3
-------
FLOWCHART FOU I'HOC!RAM O
(PAGE 3 OF 5)
SET IJY
INDICATOR
EQUAL TO 1
ND-POINT ON
ORIZONTAL GRID
LINE ?
S
-POINT
CORNER ?
SET IT
INDICATOR
EQUAL TO 1
COMPUTE
SLOPE
OF LINK
COMPUTE LENGTH
OF LINK LYING
IN GRID.
MULTIPLY LENGTH
BY VEHICLE COUNT
TO GIVE VMT
DIVIDE COMPUTED
VMT IN HALF
OES
LINK LIE ON
GRID LINE
ADD VMT TO
GRID NEXT TO
CURRENT GRID
MULTIPLY VMT
BY E.F. AND
ADD EMISSION
TO GRID
-------
ADD VMT TO
CURRENT GRID
MULTIPLY VMT BY
EMISSION FACTOR
AND ADD EMISSION T
-------
COMPUTE EMISSION
FACTOR FOR
SECONDARY TRAFFIC
ADD EMISSIONS DUE
TO SECONDARY
TRAFFIC FOR EACH
GRID.
ADD EMISSIONS DUE
TO AIRPORTS FOR
SELECTED GRIDS
A OUTPUT COM
REA SOURCE
CARDS
STOP
'ODEPUT APRAC
'SECONDARY
TRAFFIC
CARDS
f STOP J
FLOWCHART FOR PROGRAM GRID (PAGE 5 OF 5)
A.6
-------
NOTE: Units of variables and coordinates will vary from usage to
usage. As long as all units are consistent, the program should
accept any unit system with a few minor changes.
INPUT VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS FOR GRID
Card
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
•Column
1-10
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
1-10
11-20
1-10
11-20
21-30
1-10
11-20
21-30
Format
110
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
110
110
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
F10.2
110
Name
ITYP
VTMXMN
VTMYMN
GRDFAC
IXGRID
IYGRID
EXTRA
TOTAL
ALPHA 1
BETA )
SPEED (1)
SPEED (2)
SPEED (3)
GAMMA )
DELTA )
NUMPT
Description
Run type indicator:
1 = APRAC only
2 = COM only
3 = Both
Minimum X coordinate
Minimum Y coordinate
Length of a grid side
Number of grids in X direction
Number of grids in y direction
Extra Traffic to be addid
secondary
Total daily VMT
Emission constants for CO
E = a S
Up to 8 speeds (as shown
APRAC-lA card E)
Emission constants for HC
TT ^ V C^^^
Number of point sources
for min
in
A.7
-------
INPUT VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS FOR GRID (continued)
Card Column
6(1)
I=1,NUMPT* 1-6
7-13
21-28
29-36
37-43
44-49
50-56
57-63
7(1)
1=1,1200 11-15
16-20
21-25
26-30
31-36
37-41
42-46
Format
F6.1
F7.1
F8.0
F8.0
F7.0
F6.1
F7.0
F7.0
F5.2
F5.2
F5.2
F5.2
16
15
F5.2
Name
PX
PY
PCO
PHC
PH
PD
PS
PT
PAX
PAY
PBX
PBY
ICOUN
ISFAC
PDIST
Description
Point Source Data Cards
X coordinate in VTM1 s
Y coordinate in VTM's
CO emission rate in TPY
HC emission rate in TPY
Stack height in feet
Stack diameter in feet
Exit gas flow rate (cfm)
Exit gas temperature in °F
Primary Link Cards (APRAC-1A Format)
X and Y coordinates of one end of link
X and Y coordinates of other end of link
Number of vehicles per day on link
Traffic code number
Length of link
*Point source data from NEDS forms. Necessary for CDM only
A.8
-------
( START \
INPUT FILE
OF NODE
NUMBERS AND
COORDINATES
INPUT A LINK
RECORD IN
TRAFFIC
SURVEY FOR1IA1
DETERMINE
COORDINATES OF
LINK bND-POINTS
SET T-12
INDICATOR = 1
DETERMINE
SPEED-CODE
OF LINK
TS
7 INK IN
^LOW-GROWTH'1
EA?
DETERMINE PRO-
JECTED VEHICLE
COUNT BASED ON
SLOW-GROWTH FACTOI
DETERMINE PROJECT-
ED VEHICLE COUNT
BASED ON "FULL-
R017TH" FACTOR
OUTPUT A LINK
RECORD IN APRAC
PRIMARY LINK
FORMAT
YES
FLOWCHART FOR PROGRAM PHX75
A.9
-------
INPUT VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS FOR PHX75
Card 1-Link cards
Column
2-6
8-12
14-17
32-36
55-59
66
Format
F5.0
F5.0
F4.2
F5.0
F5.0
Fl.O
Name
A-COORD
B-COORD
DIST
D-COUN1
D-COUN2
S-CDE
Description
Node number of "A" end-point.
Node number of "B" end-point.
Link length in miles.
One-way directional vehicle count.
Other-way directional vehicle count.
Code for average speed on link.
Card 2-Node Cards
Column
7-10
16-20
26-30
Format
F4.0
F5.3
F5.3
Name
CORD
X-CO
Y-CO
Description
Node number.
X-coordinate of node
Y-coordinate of node
A. 10
-------
FLOWCHART FOR POINT:
( START J
READ A
DATA CARD
CONVERT X VMT
TO MILES
CONVERT Y VMT
TO MILES
CONVERT CO
EMISSION TO
gm/sec
CONVERT HC
EMISSION TO
go/ sec
CONVERT STACK
HEIGHT TO
METERS
CONVERT STACK
DIAMETER TO
•1ETERS
OUTPUT A
COM CARD
(CARD 100
FORMAT)
CONVERT STACK
CAS TEMP
TO°C
CONVERT STACK
GAS EXIT SPEED
TO m/sec
HOVE 0 TO
STACK OPENING
AREA
A. 11
-------
INPUT VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS FOR POINT
(all information available on NEDS form)
Column
1-6
7-13
21-28
29-36
37-43
44-49
50-56
57-63
Format
F6.1
F7.1
F8.0
F8.0
F7.0
F6.1
F7.0
F7.0
Name
X-COORD
Y-COORD
CO
HC
HEIGHT
DIAM
SPEED
TEMP
Description
X VMT coordinate in Kilometers
Y VMT coordinate in Kilometers
Carbon Monoxide emission in TPY
Hydrocarbon emission in TPY
Stack height in feet
Stack diameter in feet
Stack gas exit velocity in CFM
Stack gas exit temperature in °:
NOTE: In the flow chart, those operations that are not
necessary can be by-passed.
A. 12
------- |