United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Air Support Branch
Region I
Boston, Massachusetts 02203  November 1978
Air
Cost Analysis for a
Decentralized Emissions
Inspection/Maintenance
Program for
Massachusetts

Technical Report

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Prepared for
U.S. ENVIRONNENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Region .1
Boston, Massachusetts
Contract No. 68-02-2544
Task Or.der Number 4
EPA Project Officer
Carl Ripaldi
November 1978
COST ANALYSIS
FOR A DECENTRALIZED EMISSIONS
INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE PROGRAM
FOR MASSACHUSETTS
Final Report
I

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ABSTRACT
This report presents a cost analysis of a decentralized
vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance (I/M) program
for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The analysis was
performed on a life-cycle cost basis and considered the
effects of inflation, growth in the vehicle fleet and labor
rate escalation on the costs of the program. Elements
which are specifically addressed include:
Necessary modifications to the current
Massachusetts inspection program to
accommodate I/M.
• Incremental capital and operating costs which
would be incurred by the State and private
garages with the addition of I/M to the current
safety inspection.
• Impacts of I/M on the vehicle inspection fee.
• Changes required to upgrade the current safety
inspection to meet Federal VIU standards, and
the impact of these changes on the inspection
fee.
Although certain assumptions made in the course of
the analysis may change when the details of the program
design are complete, the results presented here reflect
a reasonable estimate of the costs of a certified garage
I/M program.
1].

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CONTENTS
Page
Abstract ii
Tables V
Figures Vii
Introduction I-i
1 Study Objectives 1-1
2 Study Scope 1-2
3 Evaluation Methodology 1-3
II Combining Safety and Emissions Testing in 11-1
Massachusetts
1 Massachusett’s Existing Safety 1 1—1
Inspection Program
2 Modifications Necessary to Supplement 11-3
the Safety Inspection with an Emis-
sions Test
III Analysis of the Incremental Costs of 11 1-1
Adding an Emissions Test to Massachu-
setts’ Existing Safety Program
1 Overview of Approach 111-1
2 Investment Cost Analysis 111-3
3 Start-up Cost Analysis 111-5
4 Program Administration Cost Analysis 111-7
5 Emission Testing Cost Analysis 111—8
6 Utilities and Supplies Cost Analysis 111-11
7 Maintenance and Repair Cost Analysis 111-12
8 Annual Licensing Fee 111—14
9 Summary of Cost Analysis Results 111—14
IV Analysis of the Impact on the Inspection
Fee of Changes to Massachusetts Existing
Safety Program
1 Calculation of Incremental Inspection IV-1
Fee Associated With Emissions
Inspection
2 Combined Annual Emissions and IV-4
Existing Safety Inspection Program
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3 Combined Annual Emissions and Safety IV-7
Inspection Program Upgraded to NHTSA
VIU Guidelines
4 Comparison of Annual Inspection Costs IV-16
Per Motor Vehicle for Self-Sustaining
Emissions and Safety I/M Programs
V Sensitivity Analysis Results V-i
1 Interest Rate V-i
2 Inflation Rate V-i
3 Program Life Cycle V-3
4 Number of Certified Garages V-5
5 Manual Data Handling and Analysis V ’lO
Appendices
A Summary of Building and Land Cost Data
B Capital Investments Summary
C Summary of Start-up Costs
D Summary of Operating Costs
E Massachusetts Vehicle Registration
F Summary of Total Life’ Cycle Costs
Inflation Assumptions, and Inspection
Fee Calculation
G Sensitivity Analysis Calculations
H Glossary
iv

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LIST OF TABLES
Page
No. Number
111-1 Summary of Initial and Life—Cycle Investment 111-5
Costs
111-2 Summary of Initial and Life-Cycle Start-up 111-6
Costs
111-3 Summary of Personnel Requirements and Costs 111—9
111-4 Summary of Garage Service Rates by Type of 1 1 1-10
Facility and Geographic Location
111-5 Summary of Utilities and Supplies Costs 111—12
to the State
111-6 Summary of Maintenance and Repair Costs 111-13
111-7 Summary of Capital Investment, Start—up and 111—15
Operating Costs for Both State and Private
Garages for an Inflation Rate of 5 Percent
IV-l Summary of Light-Duty Vehicle Less Than
15 Years Old by Vehicle Class IV-2
IV-2 Summary of Fee Calculation IV—3
IV-3 Inspection Cost Per Vehicle of a Combined IV-6
Annual Emissions and Existing Safety
Inspection Program
IV-4 Comparison of NHTSA and Massachusetts Vehicle IV-9
System/Component Inspection Requirements
IV-5 Summary of Inspection Programs in Northeastern IV-12
and Mid-Atlantic States
IV-6 Summary of Inspection Fees for Inspection IV—14
Programs Similar to Massachusetts
V

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IV—7 Inspection Cost Per Vehicle of a Combined IV-16
Annual Emissions and Upgraded Safety
Inspection Program
IV-8 A Comparison of the Worst Case Annual IV-17
Inspection Cost Per Motor Vehicle for Self—
Sustaining Emissions and/or Safety Inspection
and Maintenance Programs (1982-1986 Time Frame
at a 5 Percent Inflation Rate)
IV-9 A Comparison of the Expected Annual Inspection IV-19
Cost Per Motor Vehicle for Self—Sustaining
Emissions and/or Safety Inspection and
Maintenance Programs (1982-1986 Time Frame,
for a 5 Percent Inflation Rate)
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page
I-i Overview of Evaluation Methodology 1-4
111-1 Overview of Approach for Estimating 111-2
Incremental Inspection Fee
111—2 Comparison of Program Expenditures over 111-16
the Life Cycle
111-3 Comparison of Actual Program Costs over 111-16
the Life Cycle
iv-i Comparison of Incremental Cost per Iv-4
LDV Over the Life Cycle
V—i Cost Comparison — Interest Rate V-2
V-2 Cost Comparison - Inflation Rate V-3
V-3 Cost Comparison - Program Life Cycle V-4
V-4 Cost Comparison - Number of Certified V-5
Garages
V-5 Illustration of Method for Estimating Mini- V-8
mum Number of Inspection Stations Within
1—495
vii

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I. INTRODUCTION

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I. INTRODUCTION
Inspection/maintenance (I/M) is a term used to denote
the periodic inspection of motor vehicles for emissions.
The purpose of an I/M program is to identify vehicles which
need remedial maintenance or adjustment to signifIcant1 ’
reduce their emissions and to require repair of these
vehicles. The reported benefits of an I/M proqran include
reduced emissions, improved fuel economy, and improved vehiàle
performance. On the other hand, the implementation of an
I/M program has significant cost implications as well.
These include the construction of buildings, the purchase
of new equipment and the addition of new staff to handle
increased program administration, data analysis, and pro-
r raj i surveillance rec uirements.
With the passage of the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1977, the States are now required to achieve certain ambient
air quality standards by December 31, 1982. While there
are a number of ways to accomplish this, if a State cannot
demonstrate attainment of the standards by that date, the
State must include in its State Implementation Plan (SIP)
revisions of January 1, 1979, a specific schedule for the
implementation of rIM. To assist the Commonwealth of
Massachusetts in se lectinci the most suitable alternative
for achieving these standards, this report presents an
evaluation of the incremental costs of adding an emissions
test to the existinq safety inspection program in Massachusetts.
The following sections contain a discussion of the
objectives and scope of this evaluation, and explain the
evaluation methodology.
1. STUDY OBJECTIVES
The primary objective of this study was to provide the
Commonwealth of Massachusetts with an in-depth economic
analysis of the costs of implementing a decentralized cer-
tified garage I/M program. Specific objectives of the study
were:
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• To determine the incremental capital and operating
costs of adding an emissions inspection test to
the existing safety inspection program.
• To determine the incremental fee to be charged
the consumer of adding an emissions inspection
test to the existing safety inspection program.
To determine the combined safety and emissions
inspection fee to be charged the consumer, antici-
pating that changes would be made to the existing
safety program, both to accommodate the added
emissions inspection, as well as to improve the
existing safety program.
2. STUDY SCOPE
In accordance with the contract scope of work, the
analysis was based on implementation of a statewide I/M
program superimposed on the existing safety program. The
assumed characteristics of the I/M program were:
Vehicle testing by certified private garages for
excessive hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emis-
sions.
Mandatory inspection of all light duty vehicles
(LDV’s)* less than 15 years old as of the start
date of the program.
• Use of an idle mode test to check vehicle emissions
with an initial insoection failure rate of 20 per-
cent.
• Annual inspection, evenly distributed over the
year with a free reinspection for failed vehicles
at the same station.
Use of a State-run quality audit and enforcement
program (one State inspector for every 100 private
inspection stations).
* For the purpose of this report, light duty vehicles are defined
as vehicles with a gross vehicle weight of 10,000 pounds or less.
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Use of State-owned and ooerated challenge garages
to handle consumer complaints and to check the
quality of garage insoections.
Use of mobile vans as auxiliary inspection facili-
ties in outlying areas and for spot-checking
vehicles on the highway.
Inclusion of a four—week training course for in-
spectors to be run by the 3tate, and a State—operated
mechanic training course with costs borne by the
students.
Expansion of the current inspection administra-
tion staff to handle increased program admini-
stration, data analysis and program surveillance
requirements.
The assumed start-”uo date for the program was January
1, 1982.
3. EVALUATION METHODOLOGY
The methodology employed in carrying ou the above
study objectives is shown in Figure I-i. As shown in the
figure, the methodology consisted of four tasks, as follows:
Task 1: Determination of Emissions Test Program
Requirements . This task involved analysis of the
existing safety inspection program with respect
to the modifications necessary to expand this
program to include an emissions test. The task
involved discussions with key personnel at the
Vehicle Inspection Section, Registry of Motor
Vehicles, discussions with key personnel at the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency involved
in providing States with direction on I/M pro-
gram implementation, and a review of supporting
data (e.g., State inspection manual) on Massa-
chusetts safety inspection orocedures.
Task 2: Analysis of the incremental Costs of
Adding an Emissions Test to Massachusetts’
Existing Safety Program . This task involved
analysis of the incremental capital and operating
costs which would be incurred by both the State
and private garages with the addition of an
emissions test to the existing safety inspection
program. This analysis involved evaluation of
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DETERMINATION OF
EMISSIONS TEST
PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS
(TASK 1)
ANALYSIS OF INCREMENTAL
COSTS OF ADDING AN
EMISSIONS TEST
(TASK 2)
ANALYSIS OF IMPACT
VEHICLE ON INSPECTION FEE OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES
REGISTRATIONS CHANGES TO SAFETY PROGRAM * TO EXISTING SAFETY
(TASK 3) PROGRAM
—
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
OF
EVALUATION RESULTS
(TASK 4)
FIGURE I-i
Overview of Evaluation Methodology
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the life cycle costs associated with the develop-
ment, implementation and operation of the proposed
I/ program.
Task 3: Analysis of the Impact on the Inspection
Fee of Changes to the Safety rOgraIT1 . This task
involved calculation of the incremental fee to be
charged the motorist as a result of (1) conaucting
an emissions test, (2) combining an emissions test
with the existing safety inspection and (3) up-
grading the safety inspection to meet Federal
standards and combining the modified safety inspec-
tion with an emissions test.
Task 4: Sensitivity Analysis of the Incremental
Costs and Fee . This task involved analysis of
the sensitivity of the results of Task 2 and 3
to changes in the major assumptions used in carry-
ing out those analyses. The assumptions which
were tested include the interest rate, inflation
rate, program life, number of certified garaqes,
and use of a manual data processing system in
lieu of an automated system.
The results of each of these analyses are presented in
detail in Chapters II through V. Data and supporting cal—
culations for each analysis are provided in separate ap-
pendices.
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II. COMBINING SAFETY AND ENISSIONS
TESTING IN MASSACHUSETTS

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II. COMBINING SAFETY AND EMISSIONS
TESTING IN MASSACHUSETTS
Given the well established periodic safety inspection
in Massachusetts, a logical way to meet EPA’S requirements
for a transportation pollution control program is to super-
impose an emissions test onto the existing safety inspection.
To make such a combined program work effectively, however,
certain provisions must be made to meet EPA’s requirements
for I/M and to protect Massachusetts consumers from im-
proper or fraudulent testing. This chapter describes the
existing Massachusetts safety inspection program and some
of the modifications necessary to expand this inspection
to include an emission test.
1. MASSACHUSETTS EXISTING SAFETY INSPECTION PROGRAM
In Massachusetts, automobile safety inspections are
administered semi-annually by the Vehicle Inspection Sec-
tion of the Registry of Motor Vehicles, during two 6-week
periods. During these time periods, inspections of more
than 3 million vehicles are performed. A fee of $2.00 is
charged for each safety inspection, all of which is retained
by the garage. Since no portion of the inspection fee is
returned to the State, the program as presently structured
is not self-supporting. The program has an annual budget
of $950,000, and employs a staff of approximately 57, in-
cluding 50 inspectors, a program director and six persons in
in clerical and secretarial positions. All expenses in-
curred in the program are paid for from the State general
fund, including the printing and distribution of stickers,
forms and other materials to the approximately 4,200 certi-
fied garages.
During the inspection, the following vehicle components
and systems are inspected:
Brakes - Inspector operates the vehicle to test
the parking and service brakes.
Lights - Inspector conducts a visual inspection of
front headlamp aim, rear lamps and marker lights
for proper operation.
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• Muffler and Exhaust — Inspector conducts a visual
and audio check for excessive smoke, unnecessary
noise, and exhaust leaks.
• Steering — Inspector checks for excessive wear
and play and for free steering. Inspector also
conducts a visual check of the front end while
the vehicle is lifted.
• Horn - Inspector conducts a check for adequate
signal and secure fastening to the vehicle.
• Glazing - Inspector checks that the windshields
are free of cracks or stone bruises in the area
of the wiper blade, and that the rear windows
are clear.
Tires - Inspector conducts a check for adequate
tread depth, condition and wear.
• Body, Fenders and other External Parts - Inspector
conducts a check for holes, corrosion or broken
mouldings with sharp edges. Inspector also checks
that front and rear fenders are in place.
A verification check is also made of the registration certi-
ficate against the registration plates and vehicle identi-
fication number.
If the vehicle passes the inspection, the inspector
completes a station report form, fills out the sticker and
attaches the sticker to the windshield. If the vehicle
fails the inspection, the inspector notifies the vehicle
owner, completes a rejected report form, fills out a
“rejected” sticker and attaches it to the windshield. A
motorist may obtain a free reinspection from the station
which rejected his vehicle. If the motorist chooses to
go to another station after being rejected, however, he is
required to pay another fee. Inspection retort sheets are
required to be kept by the garage owner and are subject to
examination by Registry Inspectors for at least two years
following the date of the inspection.
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2. MODIFICATIONS NECESSARY TO SUPPLEMENT THE SAFETY IN-
SPECTION WITH AN EMISSION TEST
Existing Massachusetts legislation does not provide
for a self-supporting vehicle inspection program, nor are
there provisions for penalties for infractions of the ve-
hicle inspection laws by garage owners and operators. In
addition, the current semi-annual safety inspection schedule
is not compatible with the change to an annual emissions I/M
program. Changes in the legislation and in administration
of the safety program will be necessary to incorporate these
requirements as part of a combined safety/emissions inspec-
tion Other anticipated changes include:
• Developing additional requirements for inspection
facility licensing
• Developing a system for monitoring the effective-
ness of the emissions I/M program (i.e., record
maintenance system)
Developing a quality audit and enforcement program
for monitoring the quality of inspections performed
by garages
• Developing a program which trains mechanics in the
inspection, diagnosis and repair of emissions re-
lated vehicle problems
• Developing a program which informs the public of
the new inspection requirements and of licensed
garage operating hours, the inspection fee and the
purpose of the challenge garages on a continuing
basis
• Constructing state referee stations (i.e., challenge
garages) for the purpose of handling consumer com-
plaints about the program
• Purchasing mobile inspection units to act as
auxiliary inspection stations in outlying areas
or for spot-checking vehicles on the highway.
A discussion of each of these changes is presented
below.
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(1) Inspection Facility Licensing
A fundamental requirement f or adding an emissions
test to the existing safety inspectiort is to institute
new inspection facility licensing requirements. Garages
which are presently licensed to perform safety inspec-
tions will have to purchase an approved emissions analy-
zer and employ an inspector with demonstrated proficiency
in conducting emissions tests. In addition, a garage
applying for certification should also be required to:
• Maintain inspection records
• Submit the facility to periodic inspections
and audits by the State.
All official inspection facilities should meet these
requirements, and the appropriate Massachusetts agency
should have provisions for penalizing facilities which
fail to uphold the licensing regulations.
(2) Records Maintenance System
The collection of detailed information on the re-
sults of emissions testing will be indispensable in
adjusting the emission standards and stringency levels
to the Massachusetts vehicle population. A second im-
portant program modification, therefore, is ensuring
that on each vehicle inspected there is a record indi-
cating the emissions test result, and the frequency
with which the garage’s analyzer has been calibrated.
Such information will be useful in (1) monitorinq the
overall effectiveness of the program and (2) evaluating
the accuracy of vehicle test results.
The development of a records maintenance system,
however, will require:
• Providing the garages with standard data
collection forms
Checking the records oeriodically to ascertain
their accuracy and completeness
• Purchasing appropriate data handling and
processing equipment.
(3) Quality Audit and Enforcement Program
Because of the necessity of accurate emissions
testing and proper maintenance for reducing air pol-
lution levels, the emissions testing and equipment
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calibration procedures in the garages must be care-
fully monitored. With as many as 4,200 garages per-
forming inspections in Massachusetts, extensive diver-
gence in these procedures may result unless the
facilities are regularly visited and their procedures
checked by representatives of the monitoring agency.
Currently, garage inspections are performed randomly
or in response to specific consumer complaints. With
the addition of emissions testing to the safety in-
spection, the frequency of garage checks should be
increased to approximately once every 30 days for each
garage, and should include a check of the calibration
of the emission analyzer as well as a review of the
testing procedures. Unscheduled/unannounced garage
inspections are effective as a routine surveillance
measure and as a complaint investigation procedure.
The correlation of instrument readings among inspec-
tion facilities can also be checked at this time.
(4) Mechanic Training Program
Adjustment of pollution control devices and the
reduction of vehicle emissions are comparatively re-
cent concerns of the automobile service industry. Con-
sequently many mechanics have had no instruction in
the downward adjustment of emission levels or the cor-
rection of pollution control defects. Since emissions
repairs and maintenance are the actual sources of motor
vehicle emission reductions, even the most elaborate
testing program would be ineffective in Massachusetts
without capable and informed auto mechanics to correct
the emissions problems. A mechanic training program
therefore needs to be made available and the mechanics
should be encouraged to attend well in advance of the
program implementation. Some training courses for
emissions repairing and adjustment have already been
developed. In the future, if necessary, EPA may issue
guidelines for determining the adequacy of a mechanic
training program. For the present, Massachusetts may
adopt training packages from other states or develop
its own program.
(5) Public Information Program
The citizens of Massachusetts have been subject
to vehicle inspection for nearly fifty years (the pro—
grain began in 1930), and by now they are adjusted
to the concept of periodic inspection. The addition
of an emissions test to this long-standing safety in-
spection, however, should be accompanied by a public
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awareness campaign adequate to instill an understanding
of the test, its expected benefits for Massachusetts,
and any additional program components designed to en-
sure the protection of Massachusetts consumers (challenge
garages, waivers, etc.) This is critical to the success
of the program. The elements of this program should
include as a minimum:
• Organization of a consumer affairs office
Establishment of information seminars for
repair establishment management
• Development of a media campaign to inform
the public about the program, including the
names and locations of garages licensed to
perform the inspections, their hours and the
inspection fee.
(6) • Referee Inspection Stations (Challenge Garages )
Providing a referee station will give Massachusetts
motorists an opportunity for an objective inspection,
independent of any special interests of the repair in-
dustry. The referee station may also be a center for
handling consumer complaints relating to the diagnosis
and repair of vehicle malfunctions relating to emissions.
Six such garages will be required in Massachusetts as
follows:
Boston (3)
Springfield (1)
• Worcester (1)
Southeastern Massachusetts (1)
(7) Mobile Van Units
Many I/M programs use vans as auxiliary
inspection stations or for spot-checking vehicles
on the highway. Highway spot-checks are useful in:
• Determining the effectiveness of inspection
and maintenance emissions levels, particularly
during the initial phases of an I/M program
Deterring vehicles from operating on public
roads if they do not comply with applicable
emissions standards
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Assisting in the garage inspection and sur-
veillance effort by conducting reinspections
of vehicles which were recently inspected by
a State certified garage.
Although it is presently illegal for Massachusetts
police to stop a motor vehicle without probable cause
of violation, a legislative change could be made to
permit highway spot-checks in the future. Such vans
could also be used as auxiliary inspection stations
to serve outlying areas such as:
Marthas Vineyard
Nantucket
Berkshires.
* * * * * * * *
The costs associated with the above changes and their
impact on the inspection fee are described in the following
chapters.
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III . ANALYSIS OF THE INCREMENTAL COSTS OF ADDING
AU EMISSIONS TEST TO ?IASSACHUSETTS
EXISTING SAFETY PROGIWI

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III. ANALYSIS OF THE INCREMENTAL COSTS OF ADDING
AN EMISSIONS TEST TO MASSACHUSETTS’
EXISTING SAFETY PROGRAM -
The approach employed in determining the incremental
capital and operating costs as well as incremental fee of
adding an emissions inspection test to the existing safety
inspection program is shown in Figure 111—i. As shown in
the figure, the basic approach employed was based on the
concept of life cycle costs . This means that all expendi-
tures associated with the development, implementation, and
operation of the proposed I/M program were considered in
determining the incremental inspection fee. This chapter
describes the life cycle cost analysis conducted in deter-
mining the State and private garage costs. Chapter IV
which follows describes the life cycle vehicle registration
and inspection fee analysis.
1. OVERVIEW OF APPROACH
Life cycle costs are normally determined by adding the
maintenance and operating costs each year to the yearly invest-
ment cost (interest plus amortization payment of the initial
cost) and then totaling these for the life of the program.
In lieu of this procedure, however, it is convenient to first
calculate the individual life cycle cost for each component
of total cost, and then to total these in order to determine
the total life cycle cost. It is this latter procedure which
was employed in carrying out the analysis. The basic life
cycle cost equation employed was as follows:
Life Cycle Costs = ICC + SUC + PAC + ETC +
USC + MRC - SVC
where:
ICC = Life cycle investment costs
SUC = Life cycle start-up costs
PAC = Life cycle program administration costs
ETC = Life cycle emissions testing costs
USC = Life cycle utilities and supplies costs
MRC = Life cycle maintenance and repair costs
SVC = Salvage value of building and land at end of life cycle.
hI—i

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DETERMINATION OF
MODIFICATIONS TO
EXISTING SAFETY PROGRAM
TO INCORPORATE EMISSIONS
LIFE CYCLE COST
ANALYSIS OF
MODIFICATIONS
CALCULATION OF
INSPECTION
COST PER VEHICLE
FIGURE Ill-i
Overview of Approach for Estimating
Incremental Inspection Fee
EXISTING SAFETY
INSPECTION PROGRAM
COMPARISON OF EXISTING
SAFETY PROGRAM WITH
I/M PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS
I/M PROGRAM
REQUIREMENTS
4
4
LIFE CYCLE
VEHICLE
REGISTRATIONS
111—2

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The variables PAC, ETC , USC, and MRC are all components
of annual operating costs. Variables ICC, SOC and SVC re-
present costs that are incurred only once during the life
cycle. All costs were based on a program life of five years
starting with calendar year 1982 as the year of program ini-
tiation and ending in December, l986.* Costs were originally
estimated in 1978 dollars and were then inflated to reflect
actual costs during the life cycle (1982—1986). A common
annual inflation factor of 5 percent was assumed for all
costs.
The following sections describe the specific methods
used in calculating each of the components of life cycle
costs.
2. INVESTMENT COSTS ANALYSIS
Life cycle investment costs are the initial outlay of capi-
tal costs associated with an I/M program plus the interest paid
on the money borrowed to finance these costs. Initial investment
costs usually include the construction of buildings and the pur-
chase of land and equipment. They can also include those “one
time” costs associated with start-up of the I/M program, such as
mechanic/inspector training costs and public relations costs.
However, because of the different possibilities for potentially
funding capital and start-up costs, the calculation of life cycle
start-up costs were handled separately in this analysis.
Life cycle investment costs were determined by multiplying
the initial investment costs (I) by the product of program life
(n) and a factor which amortizes the initial costs over the life
of the program (Y). The factor Y was derived by assuming that
the required capital was borrowed at the beginning of the first
year of the program’s life, and repaid in equal yearly principal
and interest payments throughout the life of the program. The
formula used to compute life cycle investment costs was as follows:
Life Cycle Investment Costs = I x n x Y
where:
I = Total initial investment costs
n = Life of the program
Y = Yearly principal and interest
cost on one dollar, equal to:
i(1+i)
(l÷i)rl_l
where i equals the annual interest rate.
* It was asswned that capital investment and start-up costs would be
incurred in 1981.
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Initial investment costs for the proposed I/M program
included:
• The construction of six challenge garages
(building and land costs) for the metropolitan
areas of Boston (3), Springfield (1), Worcester
(1), and Southeastern Massachusetts (1) for the
purpose of handling consumer complaints about
the program.
• The purchase of up to five mobile inspection units
operated by State Inspectors as auxiliary inspec-
tion stations, for example, in areas such as the
Berkshires, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket, or
for spot checking vehicles on the highway.
• The purchase of exhaust emission analyzers by the
State (four for each of the six challenge garages
plus one for each of the five mobile vans for a
total of 29) and by the private garages (4,200,
the existing number of garages certified to per-
form safety inspection).
• The purchase of computer equipment by the State
(four data entry devices) for the purpose of ana-
lyzing the collected vehicle emissions test data.
Estimates of these costs are summarized in Table 111-1.
The land cost data shown in the table was obtained
through conversations with real estate brokers in Massachu-
setts, while building cost data was estimated using conven-
tional engineering cost estimating procedures. Details of
the procedures for estimating building and land costs are
described in Appendix A. Equipment cost data (emissions
analyzers, computer equipment and mobile vans) were obtained
from conversations with the major equipment manufacturers
and vendors.
The life cycle investment costs shown in the table
are based on an interest rate of 10 percent for the State
and 12 percent for the private garages. The TOTAL life—
cycle cost shown reflects the worth (salvage value) of the
land and buildings at the end of the 5 years. That is, the
remaining value of the land and buildings at the end of
5 years was estimated and subtracted from the total life-
cycle investment. Details on this analysis are presented
in Appendix B.
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TABLE 111-1
Summary of Initial and Life Cycle Investment Costs
Item
Cost Per
Facility**
(1981 Dollars)
Number
Required
Total
Initial Cost
(1981 Dollars)
Life Cycle
Cost
(1982 — 1986)
Challenge Garage
Building
Land
Emissions Analyzers
State
Private Garages
Computer Equipment
Mobile Units*
Salvage Value Credit
$ 108,000
21,000
2,550
2,550
1,740
12,000
6
6
29
4,200
4
5
$ 648,000
126,000
74,000
10,710,000
7,000
60,000
$ 855,000
166,000
98,000
14,887,000
9,000
83,000
(730,000)
TOTAL
$ 11,625,000
$ 15,368,000
* Includes hand—held tools needed for safety inspection plus one
generator per van.
** Based on 1978 estimates escalated to 1981 dollars at an annual rate of 5%.
3. START-tiP COST ANALYSIS
Life cycle start-up costs are those costs other than
the initial investment costs, described above, necessary to
establish the program, plus (as with initial investment costs)
the interest paid on the money borrowed to finance these
costs. The start-up costs considered in developing the
prcposed I/M program included:
Initial State Labor Charges—Cost for a small group
of State employees to lay the foundation for the
program during the year prior to start—up.
Program Design Costs—Technical support to the
State for actual design of the program.
Public Information Costs—Costs of the initial
stages of a public information program, i.e.
media campaign to inform the public about the
program, informational seminars for repair estab-
lishment management, and organization of consumer
affairs office.*
* Because of the importance of public information to the success of the
I/M program, it was assumed that the public information program would
commence two years prior to program start-up.
111—5

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Inspector/Mechanic Training Costs—Costs associated
with organization of the training program, of sup-
plies (i.e., books) and the initial training of
inspectors/mechanics and the State enforcement staff.
Life cycle start—up costs were computed in the same
manner as investment costs. Namely, as follows:
Life Cycle Start-up Costs = S x n x Y
where:
S = Total start-up costs
n = Life of the program
Y = Yearly principal and interest costs
on one dollar, equal to:
j( 1 j)fl
where i equals the interest rate.
Initial labor, program design, public information and
inspector/mechanic training costs were estimated based on
extrapolations of start-up data obtained from contacts with
existing I/M programs in Arizona and Rhode Island. A sununary
of this data is presented in Table 111—2.
TABLE 111-2
Summary of Initial and Life-Cycle
Start-up Costs
Start-up Cost
Component
Initial Cost**
(1981 Dollars)
Life—Cycle Cost
(1982-1986)
Labor
Program Design
Public Information*
Training
State
Private Garage
$ 198,000
116,000
1,346,000
51,000
768,000
$ 261,000
153,000
1,777,000
67,000
1,068,000
TOTAL
$ 2,479,000
$ 3,326,000
* Costs incurred during 2 years prior to program start-up
** Based on 1978 estimates escalated to 1981 dollars at an annual rate of 5%.
111—6

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The life cycle costs shown in the table are based on an
interest rate of ten percent for the State and 12 percent for
the garage. The start-up training áosts shown for the private
garages are based on a “baseline’ case of 4,200 garages cer-
tif led to conduct inspections. The start-up cost per garage
is estimated to be approximately $180. Details and supporting
data on the start-up cost analysis conducted are presented in
Appendix C.
4. PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION COSTS ANALYSIS
Program administration costs are those costs incurred
by the State in administering the I/M program. They include
the salaries of personnel involved in program enforcement,
consumer protection, program evaluation, mechanic/inspector
training, clerical support, garage licensing, data processing,
program surveillance, and program management. They can also
include utilities and supplies costs; however, these costs
were considered separately in the methodology.
A potential organization plan for the program staff is
shown in Appendix D. Calculation of the life cycle program
administration costs were determined as follows:
Life Cycle Program n-l
Administration Costs = Z LL(1 )J + P1 (l+e) 3
j=0
where: -
P1 = Annual public information costs, equal to the
number of vehicles times ten cents per vehicle
(1978 costs) escalated to 1982 costs at a rate
of five percent per year
L = Base year (i.e., year of program initiation) labor
costs of personnel associated with the I/M program,
equal to:
F + NPk X Wk
k
where NPk equals the number of personnel in
personnel category k (e.g., secretary, engineer,
inspector, supervisor, etc.), wk equals the
average annual salary of a person in category k,
and F equals fringe benefits
111—7

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w = Composite annual wage escalation factor
e Annual inflation factor
n = Life of the program
j = Year of the program, where j=0 represents the
first year, j=l represents the second year, and
so on.
Personnel requirements (NPk) were determined based on
analysis of data obtained from the existing I/M programs of
Arizona and Rhode Island, and inputs obtained from discussions
with key personnel at the Registry of Motor Vehicles. Public
information costs were based on data received from the Arizona
I/M program and have been estimated at a high rate to ensure
strong support for the program. Average annual salaries by
category (wk) and the wage escalation factor were determined
based on analysis of the State of Massachusetts salary
schedules for the past five years. A summary of this data
is presented in Table 111—3.
The wage escalation rate used in computing the life
cycle cost figures shown in the table was 5 percent.
The public information costs which were calculated separately
were estimated to average $614,000 annually and to total
$3,070,000 over the life of the program. Background infor-
mation on the table is contained in Appendix D. -
5. EMISSIONS TESTING COSTS ANALYSIS
In a private garage I/M program, the labor and over-
head costs associated with performing the inspections are
not borne by the State but rather by the private garage and
are passed directly to the motorist as part of the inspec-
tion fee. This part of the fee is determined by the length
of time required to conduct the inspection, the garage’s
service rate, and the number of inspections performed (life
cycle emissions testing costs). Calculation of these costs
were determined as follows:
Life Cycle Emissions n-i
Testing Costs = NI x IC x (1+W)
1=0
111—8

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TABLE 111-3
Summary of Personnel Requirements and Costs
Labor
Cateogry
Number
Required
Annual
Salary**
(1982 Dollars)
Annual
Costs**
(1982 Dollars)
Life-Cycle
Costs
(1982—1986)
Director
1
$29,000
$ 29,000
$ 160,000
Field Manager
1
25,400
25,400
140,000
Statistician
1
18,800
18,800
104,000
Public Information
Officer*
1
—
—
—
Computer
Progranuner
1
20,000
20,000
110,000
Training Officer
1
20,000
20,000
110,000
Field Supervisors
5
19,400
97,000
535,000
Maintenance
Technician
1
16,900
16,900
93,000
Field Officers
70
16,300
1,141,000
6,298,000
Data Entry Clerks
3
11,300
33,900
187,000
Secretary
1
11,100
11,100
61,000
Data Clerks
3
10,300
30,900
171,000
Fringe Benefits
(30 percent)
433,000
2,391,000
TOTAL
84
$1,877,000
$10,360,000
* Costed separately as part of public information costs.
** Based on 1978 estimates escalated to 1982 dollars at an annual
rate of 5 percent.
111—9

-------
where:
NI = Number of inspections performed over the life
of the program
IC = Labor cost per inspection, equal to:
IT x LR
where IT is the time per inspection, and LR is
the average garage service rate
W = Composite wage escalation factor
n = Life of the program
j = Year of the program, where j=0 represents the
first year, j=1 represents the second year, and
so on
The average garage service rate was determined based on
analysis of garage service rates gathered in a random survey
of repair facilities in different parts of Massachusetts,
while the wage escalation factor was based on analysis of
the State of Massachusetts salary rate schedule for mechanics
for the past 5 years. A summary of the 1978 service rates
gathered from the survey by facility type, together with the
average service rate computed is presented in Table 111-4.
The average service rate computed for 1982 based on a
5 percent annual wage escalation rate from 1978 was $18.15.
TABLE 111-4
Summary of Garage Service Rates
By Type of Facility By Geographic Location
(1978 Dollars)
Garage Type
Boston
Springfield
Worcester
Average
Independent
Garage
New Car
Dealer
$14.00
16.00
$15.00
15.00
$10.00
18.00
$13.00
16.00
Average
$15.00
$15.00
$14.00
$15.00
III—lJ

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6. UTILITIES AND SUPPLIES COST ANALYSIS
These costs are associated with the purchase of office
supplies, computer charges and the operation of State challenge
garages (heating oil and electricity) and mobile vans (gasoline
and oil). The life cycle cost equation for computing life
cycle utilities and supplies costs is as follows:
Life Cycle Utilities n—l
and Supplies Costs = (U + N + S) x (1 + e)J
j=o
where:
U = Total average annual utilities cost (heating oil
and electricity) associated with operation of the
State challenge garages in the base year
M = Total average annual utilities cost (gasoline and
oil) associated with the operation of the mobile
vans in the base year
S = Total average annual supplies cost in the base year
e .= Annual inflation factor
n = Life of the program
j = Year of the program, where j=O represents the first
year, j=l represents the second year, and so on
Average annual utility costs were estimated based on
conventional engineering cost estimating procedures (see
Appendix D). Average annual supplies costs were based on
data supplied by the Vehicle Inspection Section of the
Registry of Motor Vehicles and include costs for printing
and computer charges. Fuel and oil costs for the mobile
vans were estimated at an average cost of $.14 per mile from
analysis of “Hertz Estimates of Vehicle Operating Costs,
October, 1977” and U.S. Department of Commerce Publication
“Personal Consumption Expenditures for Transportation: 1976”
Figures from these documents were escalated to 1982 dollars.
A summary of the utilities and supplies costs estimated is
presented in Table 111—5.
“I—il

-------
TABLE 111-5
Summary of Utilities and
Supplies Costs to the State
Utilities and Supplies
Cost Components
Annual Costs
(1982 Dollars)**
Life Cycle Costs
(1982 — 1986)
Utilities*
Heating Oil
Electricity
Gasoline and Oil
(Mobile Vans)
Supplies
Printing
Computer
$ 8,000
6,000
2,000
42,000
12,000
$ 44,000
33,000
11,000
232,000
66,000
TOTAL
$ 70,000
$ 386,000
* Represents total for the six challenge garages.
* * Based on 1978 estimates escalated to 1982 dollars at an annual rate
of 5 percent.
7. MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR COST ANALYSIS
These are costs assoicated with the upkeep of the State
challenge garages and mobile vans, and private garage emis-
sions analyzers. Like utilities and supplies costs, calcula-
tion of maintenance and repair life—cycle costs is as follows:
Life Cycle Maintenance n-l
and Repair Costs = E (CG+MV+EA) (1+e)
j=0
where:
CG = Total average annual maintenance and repair
costs associated with challenge garages in
the base year
MV = Total average annual maintenance and repair
costs associated with mobile vans in the base
year
111—12

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EA = Total average annual maintenance and repair
costs associated with emissions analyzers in
the base year
e = Annual inflation factor
n Life of the program
j = Year of the program, where j=0 represents the
first year, j=l represents the second year,
and so on.
Estimates of maintenance and repair costs for exhaust
emissions analyzers were based on data received from the
major manufacturers of this equipment including the cost of
calibration gases. A summary of these costs both per analyzer
and total, as well as annual versus life cycle, is presented
in Table 111-6. Details are presented in Appendix D. Annual
maintenance and repair costs for the State challenge garages
including analyzers, were found to be slightly less than
$10,000. Maintenance costs for mobile vans include parts
and labor for vehicle repairs as well as emission analyzer
maintenance costs.
TABLE 111-6
Suitunary of Maintenance
and Repair Costs
Maintenance and Repair
Cost Components
Annual Costs
(1982 Dollars)*
Life Cycle Costs
(1982—1986)
Private Garages
Emission Analyzer Per Garage
For 4,200 Garages
State Facilities
Challenge Garages
Mobile Vans 5 @ $600
$ 61
$256,000
•$ 10,000
$ 3,000
$ 337
$1,414,000
$ 55,000
$ 17,000
Total
$269,000
$1,486,000
* Based on 1978 estimates escalated to 1982 dollars at an annual
rate of 5 percent.
111—13

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8. ANNUAL LICENSING FEE
Having repair facilities licensed to perform inspec-
tions is an aid to the consumer whose vehicle requires
emissions related inspection and/or maintenance. For the
proposed I/M program it was assumed that the criteria for
a repair establishment to obtain certification was having
a certified mechanic on the staff and purchasing a State
approved emissions analyzer. The costs of satisfying
these two requirements were considered elsewhere in the
methodology. In addition to these requirements, however,
it was also assumed that the garage would be required to
pay to the State an annual license renewal fee.
Based on data from the States of New York, Rhode
Island, and New Hampshire, which presently have a periodic
safety and/or emissions inspection program and conversa-
tions with key personnel at the Registry of Motor Vehicles,
it was assumed that an annual licensing fee of $25 would
be charged the garages. These costs, however, were not
included in the inspection fee calculation discussed in
Chapter IV, since the program cost is not affected by this
fee. While these costs were not included in the inspection
fee calculation, the State will receive approximately
$105,000 per year from this fee.
9. SUMMARY OF COST ANALYSIS RESULTS
The cost analysis results described in the previous
sections are presented in Table 111-7. As shown in the
table, the private garages bear the major economic bur-
den. The analysis indicates that the average garage
would have an initial capital investment of approximately
$2,550 and a start-up cost of approximately $182 (primarily
for training). The average annual operating cost per garage
would be approximately $2,264.
As also shown in the table, capital investment and
start-up costs for the I/M program taken together exceed
average annual operating costs. This results in a high
initial program expenditure rate as shown in Figure 111-2.
When funds to cover this initially high investment are
borrowed (at 10 percent for Massachusetts and at 12 percent
for private garages) then actual program costs are as shown
in Figure 111-3. Included in these costs are interest and
principal costs, salvage values and annual operating costs.
The sum of these annual costs is the life-cycle cost.
111—14

-------
TABLE 111-7
Summary of Capital Investment, Start-up and Operating
Costs for Both State and Private Garages for an
Inflation Rate of 5 Percent
PRIVATE
GARAGES
PRIVATE
GARAGES
COST ELEMENT
STATE
(TOTAL)
(Individually)
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Initial Costs (1981 Dollars) $ 915,000 $10,710,000 $ 2,550
Life—Cycle Costs (1982—1986) 481,000* 14,887,000 3,545
START-UP
Initial Costs (1981 Dollars) 1,711,000 768,000 182
H Life—Cycle Costs (1982—1986) 2,258,000 1,068,000 254
H
H
OPERATING
1I
Average Annual Costs (1982—1986) 2,778,000 9,510,000 2,264
Life—Cycle Costs (1982—1986) 13,888,000 47,548,000 11,321
TOTAL PROGRAM
Initial Costs (1981 Dollars) 2,626,000 11,478,000 2,732
Life—Cycle Costs (1982—1986) $16,627,000 $63,503,000 $15,120
* Includes salvage value credit of $730,000.

-------
* BASED ON FIVE PERCENT INFLATION RATE
CAPITAL INVESTMENT COSTS
START-UP COSTS
] ANNUALOPERATINGCOSTS
FIGURE 111—2
Comparison of Program Expenditures Over
the Life Cycle
YEAR
* BASED ON FIVE PERCENT INFLATION RATE
FIGURE 111-3
Comparison of Actual Program Costs
Over the Life Cycle
$24
20
16
12
$14.1
*
U)
w
1-
0
x2
UJJ
5:’
(2
I —
O 8
$11.5
$12.6
4
0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
YEAR
S
U)
I-
U)
0
U
5
4—
(Z
00
0—
w 2
I-
0
5
4
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
111—16

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IV. ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT ON THE INSPECTION FEE OF
CHANGES TO MASSACHUSETTS EXISTING SAFETY PROGRAM

-------
IV. ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT ON THE INSPECTION FEE OF
CHANGES •TO MASSACHUSETTS EXISTING SAFETY PROGRAM
Calculation of the inspection fee to be charged per
vehicle for emissions inspection is determined by dividing
the State and private garage life-cycle costs by the total
number of vehicles inspected over the life of the program.
The previous chapter summarized the life-cycle costs which
would be incurred by both the State and the private garages
by inclusion of an emissions inspection test as part of the
annual safety inspection. This chapter describes the impact
on the inspection fee of adding an emissions test to the
existing safety inspection. The chapter also describes the
impact on the following program types:
Combined annual emissions and existing safety
inspection program
Combined annual emissions and upgraded safety
inspection program.
1. CALCULATION OF INCREMENTAL INSPECTION FEE ASSOCIATED
WITH EMISSIONS INSPECTION
As was shown in Figure Il l—i, life cycle vehicle
registrations are a major input to the calculation of the
per vehicle inspection fee. Life cycle vehicle registra-
tions are defined as annual vehicle registrations summed
over the life of the program. They are calculated by
multiplying the number of vehicles registered in the base
year (1982) by a factor which accounts for the growth in the
vehicle population over the life of the program. Expressed
mathematically, life cycle vehicle registrations are cal-
culated as follows:
Life Cycle Vehicle Registrations = VR x VG
where:
yR = Total number of registered vehicles in the base
year (e.g.,1982)
VG = Life cycle vehicle growth rate factor, equal to:
n=l
Z (1+AVG)
j=o
‘V-i

-------
where AVG equals the annual vehicle growth rate,
n equals the life of the program, and j equals
the year of the program; where j=0 represents
the first year, j=l represents the second year,
and so on.
In carrying out this analysis for the proposed I/M
program, the following was perforrted:
Vehicle registration data was obtained from the
Registry of Motor Vehicles for the 10 year period,
1969-1978. Based on analysis of this data, an
annual vehicle growth rate factor of 4.3 percent
was computed.
Data was obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Census
on the distribution of truck weights and the Motor
Vehicle Manufacturers Association on the distribu-
tion of vehicles by age. Based on analysis of
this national data, the number of light duty
vehicles less than 15 years old was computed for
the State of Massachusetts.
The results of the above analyses broken down by vehicle
class for 1982, together with an estimate of the number of
vehicles estimated to be inspected over the life of the
program (1982-1986) are presented in Table IV-l. The life
cycle vehicle registration data shown in the table is based
on a linear extrapolation of the vehicle registration data
from 1978 to 1986 at an annual rate of 4.3 percent. Support-
ing documentation is presented in Appendix E.
TABLE IV-l
Summary of Light Duty Vehicles
Less Than 15 Years Old By Vehicle Class
Vehicle Class
Vehicle
Registrations
(1982)
Life Cycle
Vehicle Registrations
(1982—1986)
Passenger Vehicle
Motorcycles
Coxumercial Vehicles
State and Municipal
Vehicle
3,742,000
103,000
289,000
38,000
20,500,000
600,000
1,600,000
200,000
TOTAL
4,172,000
22,900,000
IV-2

-------
Using the data presented in Table IV-l, the incremental
fee to be charged the consumers as a result of adding an
emissions inspection test to the existing safety inspection
program can now be calculated. This is determined by divid-
ing the total program life cycle costs (State and private
garage) from Table 111-7 by the total number of vehicles
estimated to be inspected over the life of the program
from Table IV-l. To summarize,
Total Program Life Cycle Costs
Incremental Inspection Fee = Life Cycle Vehicle Registratd. ons
A summary of this fee calculation is presented in Table IV-2.
TABLE IV-2
Summary of Fee Calculation
Total Program
Life Cycle Costs
Life Cycle
Vehicle
Registration
Average Ann .ial
Inspection Fee
Percent of
total Fee
State
Private
Garage
$16,627,000
63,503,000
22,900,000
22,900,000
$0.73
2.77
21%
79%
TOTAL
$80,130,000
22,900,000
$3.50
100%
As shown in the table, the incremental fee to be charged
the consumer by adding an emissions test to the existing
safety inspection progr rn would h $3 .50; $0.7 of which
would go to the State to cover amortization and other annual
operating costs, and $2.7 7 of which would cr0 to the private
garage to cover the garage owner’s equipment amortization
and operating costs. As also shown, the bulk of the fee
(79 percent) goes to cover the costs of private garages.
These costs are primarily labor costs. For this reason, the
required fee would probably have to be increased in 1987
because of increased mechanic labor ratpq &f the program
continued. Figure IV-l displays the rate af.which the
required break-even fee for the emissions I/M program increases
over the 5 year program period.
IV-3

-------
$3.70
YEAR
* BASED ON FIVE PERCENT INFLATION RATE
FIGURE IV-l
— AVERAGE
Comparison of Incremental Cost
Per LDV Over the Life Cycle
2. COMBINED ANNUAL EMISSIONS AND EXISTING SAFETY INSPEC-
TION PROGRAM
The preceeding analysis of emissions inspection costs
was based on the assumption that all costs incurred by
either the State or private garage in development, imple-
mentation and operation of the I/M program would be passed
on to the consumer through the inspection fee. In order to
determine the fee for a combined emissions and safety in-
spection program, the safety program must also assume a
self-supporting posture. This is primarily true for the
following reasons:
The $2.00 fee for the existing safety program
goes entirely to the private garage, with no
funds collected to support government administra-
tion of the program.
*
w
-J
U
I
w
>.
0
I-
I
0
w
0
C.)
$3.60
$3.50
$3.40
$3.30
$3.20-
IV-4

-------
Analysis of the emissions inspection fee covered
the entire cost incurred by the garage in perform-
ing the inspection (i.e., 5 minutes times the
average garage service rate). This is not the
case for the present safety program where the
garage is only allowed to charge $2.00 for an
inspection estimated to take 10 minutes.
In addition to the above, the existing fee of $2.00
for the safety inspection has not changed since 1930. As
was illustrated in Figure IV-1, and as will be discussed in
greater detail in Chapter V, the inspection fee is sensitive
to program life, primarily due to inflation. Thus an argu-
ment can be made that the $2.00 fee which was established
back in 1930 is obviously outdated. According to people
at the Vehicle Inspection Section of the Registry of Motor
Vehicles, this in fact has been the major argument of the
auto repair industry for some time.
To determine the combined annual emissions/safety in-
spection fee, a life cycle cost analysis was requred where
both segments of the inspection were self-supporting and
projected garage service rates over the 1982-1986 timeframe
were included. To accomplish this, the following analyses
were conducted:
The existing annual safety inspection budget
of $950,000 was inflated to 1982 dollars and
the life—cycle operating costs over the 1982-
1986 time period calculated.
The lifecycle costs which would be incurred
by the private garages in conducting safety
inspections on all eligible vehicles over the
timeframe 1982 — 1986 were calculated. This
was accomplished assuming a ten minute safety
inspection and a $15.00 per hour (1978 costs)
average garage service rate inflated over the
1982 — 1986 time period.
The above costs were divided by the anitcipated
number of vehicles to be inspected (from Table IV-1)
over the five-year life of the program (i.e.,
22,900,000) to determine the average annual safety
inspection fee. This figure was added to the
computed emissions inspection fee for the same
time period to arrive at a combined annual emis-
sions/safety inspection program fee.
The results of this analysis are presented in Table IV-3.
IV-5

-------
TABLE IV-3
Inspection Cost Per Vehicle of a Combined
Annual Emissions and Existing Safety Inspection Program
COST ELEMENT
Life
Cycle
Costs
(1982-
1986)
Life
Cycle
Vehicle
Regis-
tration
(1982—1986)
Average
Annual Safety
Inspection
Cost Per
Vehicle
Average Annual
Emission
Inspection Fee
Cost Per
Vehicle
Average
Combined
Safety!
Emissions
Cost Per
Vehicle
State Safety Inspec-
tion Operating Cost
Private Garage Safety
Inspection Labor Cost
$ 6,345,000
92,124,000
$22,900,000
22,900,000
$0.28
4.02
$0.73
2.77
$1.01
6.79
TOTAL
$98,469,000
$22,900,000
$4.30
$3.50
$7.80

-------
As shown in the table, the average annual cost per
vehicle for a self—supporting safety inspection was cal-
culated to be $4.30. By adding this fee to the annual
costs per vehicle for a self-supporting emissions test, the
total fee for a self-supporting combined emissions/existing
safety inspection was calculated to be $7.80.
3. COMBINED ANNUAL EMISSIONS AND SAFETY INSPECTION
PROGRAM UPGRADED TO NHTSA VIU GUIDELINES
In addition to implementing emissions testing, the
State of Massachusetts is contemplating changes in the
existing safety program. These changes include:
• The inclusion of a wheel pull to inspect
brakes.
• The inclusion of other tests which are either
recommended now or will be required by the
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA) to improve the safety of vehicles-in-
use (VIU)
As a result of these changes, an increase in the
vehicle inspection fee can be anticipated. Thus, one
of the objectives of the study was to estimate the po-
tential impact of such changes to the existing safety
program on the inspection fee. Prior to estimating the
adjustment in fee, the exact changes which are needed to
upgrade the safety inspection were identified through the
following steps:
NHTSA VIU standards were reviewed and compared
with the Massachusetts inspection procedures
and standards.
NHTSA planning documents and recent testimony
on inspection were reviewed to identify future
inspection requirements.
With the information gained from these analyses,
the potential impact of the changes on the inspection
fee was calculated. First, the fees and procedures of
13 states in the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions were
analyzed to gain information on normal fees ip other -
states. Second, cost estimates for the extra inspection
tests were developed.
IV-7

-------
(1) Comparison of NHTSA VIU Standards and Procedures
With Massachusetts Inspection Standards and
Procedures
A comparison of the NHTSA VIU and Massachusetts
inspection standards is presented in Table IV-4. As
shown in the table, NHTSA VIU standards prescribe
tests only for those systems which have been shown to
be major causal or contributing factors to accidents,
i.e., brakes, steering, alignment, suspension, tires
and wheel assembly. In contrast, Massachusetts stand-
ards prescribe inspection of three of the systems
recommended by NHTSA (brakes, steering and tires) plus
five others which are safety-related, but not included
in the NHTSA standards (headlights, muffler and ex-
haust, horn, glazing and body). Massachusetts
inspection regulations do not presently require:
Visual inspection of:
- Brake failure indicators
- Brake pedal reserve
- Brake hoses and assemblies
- Brake power unit
- Power steering system
- Suspension and shock absorber condition
Tread type
- Wheel mounting and integrity.
Mechanical inspection of wheel alignment
using a bar-type, scuff gauge or other toe-
in measuring device.
The removal of one front wheel and one
rear wheel to inspect disc and drum con-
dition, friction materials, structural
and mechanical parts.
Thus, to upgrade Massachusetts safety inspection
to the NHTSA VIU guidelines, it was found that the
above inspection tests would have to be added to the
safety inspection program.
(2) Review of NHTSA Planning Documents for Future
Vehicle Inspection Standards
Recent NHTSA planning documents were reviewed
to identify any potential future vehicle-in-use
IV-8

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TABLE IV-4
Comparison of NHTSA and Massachusetts
Vehicle System/Component Inspection Requirements
Vehicle System/Component NHTSA Massachusetts
Service Brake System X X
Failure Indicator X
Brake System Integrity X X
Brake Pedal Reserve X
Service Brake Performance X X
Brake Hoses and Assemblies X
Disc and Drum Condition X
Friction Materials X
Structural and Mechanical Parts X
Parking Brake X
Brake Power Unit X
Steering X X
System Play X X
Linkage Play X X
Free Turning X X
Alignment X
Power Steering System X
Suspension X
Suspension Condition X
Shock Absorber Condition X
Tires X X
Tread Depth X X
Tread Type X
General Condition x x
Damage X X
Wheel Assembly X
Wheel Integrity X
Deformation X
Mounting X
Lights X
Headlamp Aim X
Rear Lamps X
Marker Lights X
Exhaust System X
Horn X
Glazing X
Windshield X
Rear Windows x
Bumpers, Fenders and Body X I
IV-9

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inspection standards. A major document, the “Five
Year Plan for Motor Vehicle Safety and Fuel Economy
Rulemaking (March, 1978)” describes planned rule-
making activities intended for the regulation of
new motor vehicles but do not specify standards for
periodic inspection of vehicles-in-use. A more
recent publication, “Evaluation of Diagnostic
Analysis and Test Equipment for Small Automotive
Repair Establishments (July, 1978) t* contains a
discussion of current and future motor vehicle
inspection standards. This report points out that
no Federal standards or guidelines comparable to
new car standards for emissions and fuel economy are
planned for vehicles-in-use. However, in addition
to the emissions inspection requirements mandated
by EPA, the report identifies three areas where
states may be developing future inspection standards:
Noise . The Noise Control Act of 1972
authorizes the Administrator of the EPA
to develop, issue and enforce environmental
noise standards. The agency has completed
and issued regulations on some types of
construction equipment and on medium and
heavy duty trucks. Although no noise
standards have to date been issued for
passenger automobiles, light trucks or
motorcycles, the EPA has proposed (March,
1978) rules to reduce noise from new
motorcycles and replacement mufflers for
motorcycles.
Fuel Economy . There is an urgent national
need to conserve petroleum based fuels.
While the only fuel economy standards
that now exist are set for new cars, it
is expected that periodic inspections can
assist motorists to improve their fuel
economy by inspecting vehicle components
which significantly affect fuel consump-
tion, such as the ignitiion system, carbu-
retor, air filter, PCV valve, etc.
* U.S. Department of Transportation, “Evaluation of Diagnostic
Analysis and Test Equipment for Small Automotive Repair
Establishments, A Report to the Congress,” July, 1978.
IV—1O

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Crashworthiness . Recent developments in
passive restraints and improved bumpers
may eventually result in vehicle safety
inspection standards to maintain the
effectiveness of these improved safety
components and assure their ready-state
condition.
In summary, while no new inspection standards
are presently contemplated by NHTSA, the agency is
investigating vehicle noise, fuel economy and crash-
worthiness as potential areas for motor vehicle
standards.
(3) Analysis of the Fees and Procedures of 13 States
in the New England and Mid-Atlantic Regions
An examination of the inspection fees of
13 States in the New England and Mid-Atlantic Region
which have safety and/or emission inspection programs
provided information on the normal fees charged for
comparable inspections in other states. Through
the process of elimination, the 13 programs were
reduced to four which were most comparable to the
type of garage-based inspection program anticipated
for Massachusetts. A summary of the 13 State pro-
grams reviewed is presented in Table IV-5. Reasons
for elimination from analysis of 9 of the States are
given below.
Connecticut and Maryland . A fundamental
characteristic of the Massachusetts pro-
gram is that it requires periodic inspec-
tion. Two of the States reviewed,
Connecticut and Maryland, only require
vehicle inspection upon change of owner-
ship. A change of ownership inspection
program is considerably less of an admin-
istrative and operating burden to the repair
industry than an annual or semi-annual
program; thus, the fees in these States
were eliminated from further comparison
with Massachusetts.
Delaware and New Jersey . Delaware and
New Jersey require periodic vehicle in-
spections, but the inspections are per-
formed in State-operated central facilities.
‘v—il

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TABLE IV-5
I-1
t.J
Summary of Inspection Programs in
Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States
T TE
S A
FEE
TYPE OF FACILITY
FREQUENCY
TYPE OF INSPECTION
STATE
LANES
CERTIFIED
GARAGE
SEMI-
ANNUAL
ANNUAL
CHANGE OF
OWNERSHIP
SAFETY
ONLY
INCLUDES
WHEEL PULL
SAFETY &
EMISSIONS
Connecticut
$2.00
X
X
X
Delaware
Free
X
X
X
Maine
$2.00
X
X
X
Maryland
*
X
X
X
New Hampshire
*
X
X
X
New Jersey
$2.50
X
X
X
New York
$3.00
X
X
X
North Carolina
$3.10
Pennsylvania
*
X
X
x
Rhode Island
$4.00
X
—
X
X
X
Vermont
*
X
X
x
Virginia
$4.00
x
x
x
West Virginia
$4.62
X
X
X
* Inspection fee is variable depending upon the hourly service rate charged by the inspection station.

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State-operated inspection lanes may realize
economies in their operation which certified
garages do not, such as high volume through-
put and centralized training and data
collection. The fees for these programs
(Delaware, free and New Jersey, $2.50) were
therefore eliminated from comparison with
the fees for inspection programs which are
operated by commercial repair businesses.
Maine, North Carolina and Vermont . These
States were eliminated from comparison
with Massachusetts on the basis that they
do not require a wheel pull during the
inspection. The addition of a wheel pull
to the current safety inspection in
Massachusetts may increase the inspection
time by 9 to 11 minutes. States which
do not pull a wheel charge 20 percent less
for inspection than States which do.*
New Hampshire and Pennsylvania . These
States do not have a uniform fee; that
is, they allow each inspection garage to
determine the fee based on a posted hourly
service rate. As a result, the best avail-
able information on the inspection fees
of these States are estimates made by the
program administrators based on personal
and professional experience with the in-
spection program. These types of estimates
are insufficient for detailed comparison
with a program charging a uniform fee, such
as Massachusetts.
Of the 13 States surveyed, 4 (New York, Rhode
Island, Virginia, and West Virginia) were found to
have periodic inspection programs broadly similar
to the type of program contemplated for Massachusetts.
All 4 require a wheel pull as part of the brake test,
are operated by certified garages and have a stand-
ardized inspection fee. Only Rhode Island, however,
has an annual emissions inspection test. A summary
of the fees for these 4 programs is shown in Table
IV—6.
* The average fee for Maine, North Carolina and Vermont (no wheel
pull) is $3.00, while the average for New York, Virginia and
West Virginia (require wheel pull) is $3.83, excluding tax in
West Virginia.
Iv—13

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TABLE IV-6
Summary of Inspection Fees for
Inspection Programs Similar to Massachusetts
State
Inspection Fee
New York
$3.00
Rhode Island
$4.00
Virginia
$4.00
West Virginia
$4.62*
The average of the 4 fees is $3.90, and the most
frequent fee is $4.00. However, because these fees
do not contain all the inspection requirements con-
templated by Massachusetts, it was determined that
it would be inappropriate to extrapolate these fees
to the Massachusetts situation.
(4) Estimate of the Cost Per Vehicle of a Combined
Annual Emissions and Upgraded Safety Inspection
To determine the cost per vehicle of upgrading
the Massachusetts safety inspection program to NHTSA
VIU guidelines, two analyses were conducted:
• An estimate was made of the time required
to perform the additional safety inspec-
tion items required to meet NHTSA VIU
safety standards.
• The life—cycle costs which would be
incurred by the private garages in
conducting such an inspection were
calculated.
To obtain an estimate of the incremental time
required for the additional inspection items, Chilton’s
and Glenn’s automotive flat rate manuals, the Motor
Vehicle Manufacturer Association (MVMA) inspection
* In West Virginia, a 3 percent tax is levied on the garage
inspection fee of $4.00. In addition, the motorist pays a
$0.50 surcharge to the State. $4.00 + $0.12 + $0.50 = $4.62.
IV—14

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manual, and NHTSA reports on vehicle testing were
reviewed. Based on this review, it was found that
neither the Chilton and Glenn Flat Rate Manuals nor
the MVMA t S Vehicle Inspection Handbook provided
any estimates of the time required to perform inspec-
tions of individual vehicle components. Reports
published by NHTSA, however, did provide some infor-
mation on the incremental time required for the
additional testing procedures.
The following incremental testing times were
developed from the analysis:
Visual inspection of eight additional
components was estimated to require
5 minutes.
A test for alignment using a scuff
gauge or other toe-in measuring device
was estimated to require 2 minutes.
A wheel pull to inspect disc and drum
condition, friction materials, struc-
tural and mechanical parts was estimated
to require 10 minutes.
Using these test times, the life—cycle costs
which would be incurred in conducting an upgraded
safety inspection and the inspection cost per
vehcile were calculated. The results of the analy-
sis are shown in Table IV—7. As shown, the cost
per vehicle for modifications to the safety inspec-
tion to meet NHTSA VIU standards was calculated as
$6.73. When added to the cost for the combined
emissions/existing safety inspection which was
developed in Section 2 of this chapter, the total
upgraded fee was determined. Thus, the total cost
per vehicle for the combined and upgraded annual
safety/emissions inspection was found to be $14.64.
iv—15

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TABLE IV-7
Inspection Cost Per Vehicle of a Combined Annual
Emissions and Upgraded Safety Inspection Program
5 Percent
Infi ion
Life-Cycle Cost of NHTSA VIU
Modifications $156,612,000
Life—Cycle Vehicle Registrations 22,900,000
Cost Per Vehicle of NHTSA VIU
Modifications $6 .84
Cost Per Vehicle of Existing
Safety Inspection 4.30
Cost Per Vehicle of Annual
Emission Inspection 3.50
Combihed Annual Emissions!
Upgraded Safety Inspection
Program $14.64
4. COMPARISON OF ANNUAL INSPECTION COSTS PER MOTOR
VEHICLE FOR SELF-SUSTAINING EMISSIONS AND SAFETY
I/M PROGRAMS
Table IV—8 presents the results of life-cycle cost
calculations for three I/M programs for Massachusetts
as follows:
Emissions I/M Program Only . Table IV-8
displays the self-sustaining program cost of
emissions I/M, if it were totally separated
from safety inspection. The cost per vehicle
inspected is shown in the 1982—1986 time frame
for an inflation rate of 5 percent.
IV— 16

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TABLE IV-8
A Comparison of the Worst Case Annual Inspection
Cost Per Motor Vehicle for Self-Sustaining Emissions
And/Or Safety Inspection and Maintenance Programs
(1982-1986 Time Frame at a 5 Percent Inflation Rate)
REQUIRED FEE
PROGRAM VEHICLE/YEAR
DESCRIPTION (Self -Sustaning)
1. Emissions I/M Program Only $ 3.50
2. Emissions I/M and Safety
Inspection to Current
Standards (Annual) $ 7.80
3. Emissions I/M and Upgraded
Safety Inspection Standards
(Annual) $14.64
Emissions I/M and Annual Safety Inspection tQ
Current Massachusetts Standards . This self-
sustaining program combines emissions and safety
inspection as a single annual inspection. The
fee shown in Table IV-8 represents a worst case
in which:
- All costs, both public and private, are
accounted for in the fee.
— A 10 minute safety inspection to current
Massachusetts standards is assumed and all
garage costs are covered by the fee*
* The current fee of $2.00 per safety inspection was established
at a time when garage labor rates were considerably lower than
they are at present. For garages to be self-sustaining with the
current fee, inspections must be performed in 5 minutes or less.
IV— 17

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- No administrative economies are assumed
in the public sector in the combined
program administration.
Emissions I/M and Upgraded Annual Safety
Inspection Standards . This is also a self—
sustaining program. Again the result of
detailed calculations shown in Table IV-8
represents a worst case. The assumptions are
the same as those listed above with one addi-
tion. Upgrading current Massachusetts inspec-
tion standards to the level of those recommended
by the U.S. Department of Transportation, National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration is assumed
(see Table IV-4). This increases garage in-
spection time from about 10 minutes to 27 minutes.
The additional inspection tasks, which together
require the additional 17 minutes, include wheel
pulling to check brakes, front end alignment
and additional visibility items. This additional
inspection time is based on worst case assumptions.
Because of the worst case assumptions included in the
detailed calculations, and the projected inflation rate, the
projected self-sustaining inspection fee is high compared
to those of current programs. This is to be expected
It is a worst case fee and is inappropriate for consideration
except as an interim step in the calculation.
In reality, the combined emissions and safety inspection
takes advantage of two key economies as follows:
Public sector costs are reduced by combining
joint administrative functions related to both
safety and emissions inspections.
Private sector inspection charges are less than
those which are calculated on a strict time and
standard labor charge basis.
Overall costs as reflected in the required fee for
a self-sustaining program can be reduced only a few percent
by economies in the public sector. On the other hand,
private sector charges must include appropriate reductions
possible as a result of opportunities for other garage
business generated by the inspection process. As a worst
case, Table IV-8 assumes for cost analysis purposes a
situation where an individual garage is not permitted to
perform any repairs on automobiles it inspects. Table IV-8
iv—18

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results also assume that a garage serving as an inspection
station cannot perform any repairs on any automotive com-
ponents that failed inspection at another inspection
station. Such assumptions are inherent in any calculation
which assumes that each inspection must pay for itself
totally.
Table IV-9 presents the final results of the analysis
of required fee if public sector economies and current
private sector business practices relative to inspection
in Massachusetts* are taken into account.
TABLE IV-9
A Comparison of the Expected Annual Inspection Cost
Per Motor Vehicle for Self-Sustaining Emissions
And/Or Safety Inspection and Maintenance Programs
(1982—1986 Time Frame, for 5 Percent Inflation Rate)
Program Require Fee/
Description Vehicle/Year
1. Emissions I/M Program Only $2.00 to $ 2.75
2. Emissions I/M and Safety
Inspection to Current
Standards (Annual) $4.35 to $ 6.10
3. Emissions I/M and Upgraded
Safety Inspection Standards
(Annual) $7.76 to $11.13
Because the final combined program for emissions and
safety I/M is not precisely defined, the required fee
must be presented as a range. The fees shown in Table IV—9,
however, are based upon the fact that private garages will
be permitted to repair items which fail inspections. A
comparison of Tables IV—8 and IV-9 indicates that this
is a very important aspect of the program if costs to
the consumer are to be acceptable. Program costs as
* Fee estimates in Table IV—9 related to private sector costs assume
that garages continue to recover the same percentage of their
costs for each inspection as they do today at the lower number,
but capture 25 percent more of their costs than currently permitted
at the upper number.
IV—19

-------
reflected in the fees shown in Table IV-9 include adequate
public sector surveillance, facility inspection, and
challenge garage provisions to assure consumers that
they are receiving appropriate inspection results.
IV—20

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V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS

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V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS
Because of the uncertainties involved in estimatinq
certain cost components, the final task of the study was
to determine the sensitivity of the final cost analysis
results to changes in some of the major program assumptions.
As a result of this requirement, six of the major assump-
tions used in the cost analysis were varied and the analysis
redone. The assumptions which were varied were:
Interest rate
Inflation rate
Program life cycle
Number of certified qaraqes
Method used for data handlinq.
This chapter presents the results of these analyses.
Details of the analyses calculations are presented in
Appendix G.
1. INTEREST RATE
The standard interest rate for funds borrowed by a
State agency is 10 percent. This rate may vary, however,
depending on the prime interest rate which is a function
of many uncontrollable variables. To accomodate potential
changes in this rate, the costs of the program were analyzed
using alternative State borrowing interest rates of 8 per-
cent, 10 percent and 12 percent, respectively. The effect
of varying this rate on the average annual cost of in-
spection per vehicle is shown in Figure V—i. As apparent
in the figure, the effect is negligible. Using all three
rates, the fee to the motorist remains at approximately
$3.50.
2. INFLATION RATE
Due to fluctuations in economic, o1itica1 and other
variables, forecasts of annual inflation rates over an
eight year period are rarely accurate. Thus, the annual
inflation rate of 5 percent assumed for this study may or
may not be realistic. To study the effect of changes in
V-i

-------
$4.00’
w
1
C.,
I
w
>
$3.50 A A A
$3.00
uJ
w
w
>
I I
8% 10% 12%
STATE INTEREST RATE
FIGURE V-i
Cost Comparison: Interest Rate
this rate on the average annual cost of inspection per
vehicle, sensitivity analyses using annual .inflation rates
of 3 and 10 percent respectively were conducted. The
results of these analyses are dis layed in Figure V-2.
As is illustrated in the figure, the inspection cost
per vehicle is significantly sensitive to changes in the
inflation rate, i.e.,
A 40 percent decrease in the inflation rate from
5 to 3 percent causes a 6 percent decrease in
the inspection costs per vehicle ($3.50 to $3.28).
A 100 percent increase in the inflation rate from
5 to 10 percent causes a 29 percent increase in
the inspection cost per vehicle ($3.50 to $4.52).
V- 2

-------
$5. 00
LU
-J
U
$4.50
>
LU
a.
I-
U)
3 $4.00
-J
z
LU $3.50 £
U i
>
$3.00-
I I
3% 5% 10%
INFLATION RATE
FIGURE V-2
Cost Comparison: Inflation Rate
The reason for this sensitivity is the labor intensive na-
ture of the decentralized prograrl.
• 3. PROGRAM LIFE CYCLE
In carrying out the “baseline” cost analysis, it was
assumed that the life of the program would be 5 years. This
assumption was made based on the requirement that attainment
of air quality standards in “non—attainment” areas be achieved
by January 1, 1987. Based on a start-up date of January 1,
1982 for the proposed Massachusetts I/M program, and assum-
ing attainment will be achieved as required, the life of the
program at a minimum would be 5 years.
V-3

-------
However, because there is always the possibility that
Massachusetts legislators will rescind the program before
attainment of the standards or that the program will be
extended indefinitely, sensitivity analyses were conducted
varying the program life cycle. To accomplish this, anal-
yses of three and ten year life cycles were conducted for
comparison with the base case of a five year life cycle.
The results of these analyses are shown in Figure V-3.
$4.00
uJ
-j
C.,
$3.75.
A A
$3.50. A
z
z
$3.25
I I I
3 5 10
PROGRAM LIFE CYCLE (YEARS)
FIGURE V-3
Cost Comparison: Program Life Cycle
To sununarize:
When the program life cycle is changed from five
to three years, the cost increases by $0.13, from
$3.50 to $3.63. This is explained by the fact that
the program debt must be amortized in a shorter
timeframe.
V-4

-------
When the program life cycle is changed from five
to ten years, the cost increases by $0.07, from
$3.50 to $3.57. While a 10 year period for debt
repayment might intuitively seem to result in a
lower cost per vehicle over the life of the pro-
gram, costs are increased by inflation and the
necessary replacement of emissions analyzers.
Thus, variations in the life-cycle of the program are
expected to moderately impact the cost of the inspection pro-
grain to the individual motorist.
4. NUMBER OF CERTIFIED GARAGES
It is difficult to accurately predict the number of
garages whic i will seek certification as licensed emissions!
safety inspection facilities. The number of garages pre-
sently licensed for safety inspection is approxiamtely 4,200.
After implementation of emissions testing this number may
grow or it may decline. Thus, to determine the impact that
changes in the number of garaqes will have on the cost of
the program, sensitivity analyses were conducted assuming
3,000 and 5,000 certified garages, respectively. The re-
sults of these analyses are illustrated in Figure V—4.
U.’
-J
U
$3.75
>
w
A A
w $3.25
w
>
I I
0 1000 3000 5000
NUMBER OF CERTIFIED GARAGES
FIGURE V-4
Cost Comparison: Number of Certified Garages
V- 5

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As shown, assuming that the presently licensed 4,200
garages participate in the combined emissions/safety pro-
gram, the cost per vehicle would be $3.50. This result
was discussed earlier in Chapter IV. As for the impact
of reducing the number of garages from 4,200 to 3,000 or
increasing the number of garages to 5,000, the following
results are observed:
When the number of certified garages is decreased
to 3,000, the cost per vehicle decreases to $3.28.
This results from the need for less equipment and
reduced surveillance, administration and inspec-
tion labor requirements.
When the number of certified garages is increased
to 5,000, the cost ner vehicle increases to $3.64.
This results from the additional costs which will
be incurred to process the increased number of
licensing ap licatipns, to oeriodically check the
equipment in the increased number of garages and
to handle the anticipated increase in the number
of complaints.
Thus, based on the above, it can be expected that a change
in the number of garages will moderately affect the cost
of the program.
In addition to conducting a sensitivity analysis on
the total number of certified garages, part of the scope
of work also called for an analysis of the minimum number
of garages that would be necessary to meet certain proximity
criteria. These criteria were:
• Within 1-495, each garage would be located no
more than 5 miles apart
• Outside 1-495, each garage would be located
no more than ten miles apart.
To accomplish this, the followina formula was used:
Minimum Stations — Area Inside 1-495 Area Outside I- 95
Required x (2.5)2 x (5)2
V- 6

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The factors 2.5 and 5 in the forn’ula reoresent the radius
of a 5 mile circle and 10 mile circle, restectively, as
is shown graphically in Figure V-5 (i.e., the number of
garages reauired inside I— 95 is estimated by determininci
the number of circles with a 2.5 mile radius that will
fit inside the 1—495 beltway, while the number of garages
reauired outside 1—495 is estii!iated by determining the
number of circles with a 5 mile radius that will fit out-
side the 1-495 beltway). The results of this analysis are
as follows:
Minimum number of stations recruired inside I—4Q5
beltway: 92
• Minimum number of stations required outside 1-495
beltway: 77
• Total minimum number of stations required: 169
When compared with the total requirement for inspections
in Massachusetts, each of the 169 stations would have to
inspect 30,000 vehicles per year in order to satisfy the
demand. This is clearly unrealistic. Although the density
of garage locations inside or outside 1-495 and the typical
waiting time are factors which appear to impact the volume
of inspections per garage, closer analysis shows that these
factors principally affect the consumer convenience of the
program rather than dictating the minimum number of certified
garages needed. Factors which are critical to calculation
of the minimum number of garages include the following:
• The total volume of vehicles to be inspected each
year
• The number of minutes required to perform each
inspection
The number of inspections which a certified
garage can realistically be expected to perform
in one day
• The number of days per year which a certified
garage will be available for inspecting cars.
The assumptions and supporting calculations for each
of these factors are presented below:
v- 7

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FIGURE V-5
Illustration of Method for Estimating Minimum
Number of Inspection Stations Within 1-495
.e SM -ej
V-8

-------
• Number of Inspections . To accommodate future
growth in the vehicle population, the total in-
spection volume was calculated to be approximately
five million vehicles in 1986.
• Inspection Time . Ten minutes are presently re-
quired for conducting safety inspections. This
inspection time will be supplemented by an addi-
tional 5 minutes to conduct an emissions test.
The total time required to perform a combined
safety and emissions test was therefore assumed
to be 15 minutes.
Daily Inspections Per Garage . Given a 15 minute
inspection time, a certified garage could inspect
4 vehicles per hour or 32 vehicles per eight-hour
day, if no other work were performed. In fact,
the garage will be actively engaged in the auto
repair business. A rough estimate of the amount
of time which each garage may devote to the in-
spections is from 35 to 40 percent of the working
day. Therefore, each garage was assumed to be
capable of inspectir g an average of 12 vehicles
per day.
Total Inspection Days . The final assumption
necessary to calculate the minimum number of
stations was the number of inspection days oer
year. Each garage was assumed to be open for
business a minimum of 260 days per year, based
on typical labor calendars.
The minimum number of certified garages needed for the
program was calculated as follows:
Minimum Number of Garages = AM AG
Where:
AM = Annual number of vehicles subject to inspection
in Massachusetts in 1986 (i.e., 5,000,000)
AG = Annual number of vehicles inspected at each
garage, equal to:
VD x TD
where VD is the number of vehicles inspected
daily at each garage (i.e., 12) and TD is the
total number of garage operating days per year
(i.e., 260).
V-9

-------
As a minimum, 1603 private certified inspection garages
were found to be needed to provide combined safety and emis-
sions inspections in Massachusetts.
5. MANUAL DATA HANDLING AND ANALYSIS
The calculation of life cycle costs for the inspection
program base case assumed that program data would be col-
lected, stored and analyzed using electronic data orocessina
equipr!’ent. Costs for a computer programmer, several data
entry operators and charges for computer time were there-
fore included in the cost estimates. If instead of using
electronic data processing (EDP) equipment the data is
analyzed manually the EDP costs would be replaced by
manual data processing costs, principally additional data
clerks. This change in the program would not significantly
impact the cost per vehicle, however, since both methods
result in a cost of $3.50 per vehicle. It is expected that
there may be fewer errors and greater efficiency, however,
if electronic equipment is used.
* * * *
In sununary, this chapter oresented the results of
sensitivity analyses which were conducted to determine the
degree to which variations in major cost assumptions imract
the inspection cost per vehicle. To recap, the factor
which was found to most impact the cost per vehicle was
inflation rate. The factors which were found to moderately
impact the per vehicle inspection cost were the number of
licensed garages and the number of years the program con-
tinues in operation. Variations in the interest rate and
the method used for data processing (manual or automated)
were found to have no significant impact on the inspection
cost per vehicle.
V-b

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APPENDIX A
SUMMARY OF BUILDING AND LAND COST DATA

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1. SUMMARY OF BUILDING COST DATA
The estimation of building costs for the six
State challenge garages was conducted in two steps.
• Estimation of building requirements
• Estimation of building cost
The process for deriving these estimates is described
in the sections below.
(1) Estimation of Building Requirements
The use of challenge garages in inspection!
maintenance programs is a new concept. Only two
other I/M programs in the United States provide
this service. For this reason, there is very little
experience to guide us in designing such a facility.
The only type of centralized inspection facility
for which data is available is the high capacity types
used in New Jersey, Phoenix, Portland and Chicago.
These facilities are designed for performing up to
1500 inspections per day. Since a challenge garage
would only reinspectthose vehicles whose owners
suspect a faulty initial inspection, the facility
capacity requirements will not be as great. Challenge
garages may be much smaller than the high capacity
facilities. Experience in Rhode Island and Nevada,
the only states with a challenge garage, indicates
that the capacity requirements are not great.
In designing the challenge garage for estimating
the building requirements, the following criteria
were considered:
drive-through lanes
• one station per lane (inspection position)
two lanes per facility
• 14 x 5 meters per lane
office and storage space
good quality masonry construction
Figure A-i is a preliminary sketch of the proposed
challenge garage. The layout and size of the facility
closely resemble a service station.

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—t iF-- -
Office
E ___________
LaneA LaneB
Storage
-1
5m . .jt _ 5m 5m
FIGURE A-i
Challenge Garage Sketch
The high capacity inspection facilities require
a land area to building ratio in the range of 10:1
to 5:1. Since capacity is not a problem here, he
lo nd of the range was used in estimating land
requirements.
(2) Estimation of Building Cost
Building costs were estimated using conventional
engineering estimation techniques. Data for building
costs were obtained from a cost calculator developed
by Marshall Valuation Service. Multipliers were ap-
plied to convert the costs to reflect local conditions.
The calculations below describe how the building costs
were derived.
1. Base Cost :
Office and Two Bays $285 per square meter
(26.50 per square foot)

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2 Hoists (@ $2500 ea) $5000
Paving = 13 cm concrete $12 per square meter
(5 inches) ($1.10 per square foot)
Asphalt $4.30 per square meter
($.40 per square foot)
2. Composite Cost
Office and Two Bays $59,850
(14x15) x $285
Hoists 5,000
$64,850
Conversion to 1978 Dollars (1.05 2 x 64,850)
= $71,850
Conversion to Massachusetts costs (1.05 x
71,850) = $75,440
( 75,44o \
BUILDING COST PER SQUARE METER \ 210)
Paving (14xl5)x(5—1)x$16.30 = $13,700
Conversion to 1978 Dollars
(l.05 2 x $13,700) $15,100
Conversion to Massachusetts
cost (l.05x$15,100) = $15,800
( 15,80 \ — 19
PAVING COST PER SQUARE METER 840 / - $
2. SUMMARY. OF LAND COST DATA
In order to estimate what the approximate costs would
be to build auto einmission testing challenge facilities in
the four cities studied, current land costs were collected
for each metropolitan area according to general locational
criteria. The sources of information for each city are
shown in Table A-i. These sources were asked to represent
market conditions as of August 1978.

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TABLE A-i
Sources of Cost Information by City
3oston-Netropolitan Boston Economic Development & Industrial
rea Commission 617—725—3342
Leggat, cCall & Werner, Inc.
617—423—7272
Boston Redevelopment Authority
617—722—4300
Springfield MacMillan & Son, Inc. 413—736—8338
orcester John Maher Real Estate Associates
617—832—5831
Worcester Chamber of Commerce
617—753—2924
New Bedford* New Bedford Industrial Development
Commission 617—997—6501
New Bedford Chamber of Commerce
617—999—5231
An effort was made to obtain cost data based on actual
sites and buildings for sale in downtown, in—city and
surburban locations. General criteria included:
• One—quarter to one acre of land
• Industrial or commercial zoning
• Access to major arterial roads
• Normal utility service at site
Each city is summarized as to findings in Table A—2
and described according to current market conditions in the
following paragraphs. When reviewing the cost data, several
factors should be understood:
While it is likely that the test facilities
could be built in either commercial or industrial
zoned areas, commercial zoned sites are invariably
higher in cost by $ll—54 per square meter ($1-4
per square foot).
* New Bedford was selected as being representative of land costs
in Southeastern Massachusetts.

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TABLE A-2
Summary of Locational Cost Data by City
Location
Land Cost Per
Square_Meter
General Comments
(1) Springfield $11.00 — $21.00 . North Side primarily industrial/commercial
Better residential to the South and East
Majority of the population east of the
Connecticut River
Land acquisition costs fairly consistent
throughout area
(2) Worcester $5.00 — $16.00 . Major routes routes 290 and 9 provide easy
access and circulation to metropolitan
area
• Primary suburban residential communities
lie to the northwest, commercial/indus-
trial concentrations to the east
(Shrewsbury) and south (Auburn)
• Several vacant service stations available
in area
(3) Boston $9.00 — $43.00 . Land costs vary substantially within metro-
politan area due to strict growth con-
trols adopted by selected communities
- Wide variety of sites ranging from strip
commercial, industrial parks and free-
standing industrial sites
• Convenience to major interstates and 128
intersections increases and equalizes
cost differentials among communities
(4) New Bedford $2.00 - $4.50 - Considerable industrial land available for
reasonable rates from the Greater New
Bedford Industrial Foundation
• Land costs vary according to readiness for
building and the extent of available
utilities

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While Boston has industrial or commercial sites
that have been made available through urban
renewal, community development or EDA* projects,
the land projects are frequently competitive with
private sector offerings.
Existing warehouse space varies tremendously
from city to city in terms of cost, availability,
location and suitability. Thus lease terms and
costs were not explored in any detail.
Land costs do not include fees, financing or
other charges.
(1) Cost for Boston Metropolitan Area
The City of Boston forms the center of the fan—
shaped metropolitan area which contains a population
of approximately three million people. About 700,000
people live within the Boston city limits. Major
transportation corridors feed into downtown Boston
from the north, west and south urban municipalities
located within the state highway, Route 128, which
circles the high urbanized Boston area. The section
of Route 128 between Dedham and Waltham has attracted
major industrial and corporate development which has
in turn drawn major regional commercial retail and
office support facilities. Lower density and primari—
ly residential communities have developed beyond
Route 128. Many of these communities have adopted
strong growth management policies which severely
limit industrial or commercial development.
The City of Boston has several redevelopment
projects underway, some of which could accommodate
a challenge garage facility. However, the inner city
locations might not necessarily provide the greatest
convenience to the entire metropolitan area.
Given the physical configuration of the Boston
metropolitan area briefly described above, land costs
for industrial and commercial sites can vary signifi-
cantly depending upon:
Local community development controls
* Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce

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• Proximity to major transportation corridors
and particularly interchanges with Route 128
• Industrial or commercial office complexes
versus strip and spot development sites
• Applicable building and design codes.
Land costs could range from $9.00 to $43.00
per square meter ($.80 to $4.00 per square foot)
for areas within or adjacent to Route 128. The
in—city sites which have been made available by
public programs range from $9.00 to $21.00 per
square meter ($.80 to $2.00 per square foot).
Site costs within other areas outside of Boston
reflect the general range accordingly:
$11.00 per square meter ($1.00 per square
foot) in the Dorchester area
• $21.00 per square meter ($2.00 per square
foot) in the Brighton—Aiston area
$16.00 — $21.00 per square meter ($1.50
- $2.00 per square foot) in the Newton!
Waltham area
• $25.00 — $32.00 per square meter ($2.30 —
3.00 per square foot) in the Dedham area
$38.00 — $43.00 per square meter (3.50
- $4.00 per square foot) for commercial-
retail areas in the vicinity of Route 128.
(2) Cost for Springfield
The City of Springfield contains approximately
175,000 people and functions as the center of a
metropolitan area comprising 600,000 population.
Springfield is separated from West Springfield
by the Connecticut River with the population distri-
bution roughly 70 percent and 30 percent, east and
west of the River, respectively. The Chicopee—
Holyoke corridor which runs north of Springfield
and is traversed by the Massachusetts Turnpike
and Route 91, has a substantial amount of industrial
and commercial development. The better residential
areas tend to be to the south, east and west of the
city.

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Industrial zoned sites range in cost from
$11 to $21 per square meter ($1.00 to $2.00 per
square foot) with land on the north side frequently
falling into the lower end of the range ($11.00 to
$16.00 per square meter). A commercially zoned site
will cost at least $21.00 to $38.00 per square meter.
Springfield enjoys good access and circulation systems;
therefore, several locations on the east and north
sides, particularly, could be considered convenient
within the metropolitan area.
(3) Cost for Worcester
The Worcester metropolitan area contains
approximately 365,000 people and is located midway
between Boston and Springfield. About 175,000 people
live within the Worcester city limits. Several
major transportation routes serve Worcester; Route 9
connects Worcester and Boston, while Route 290
bisects, the City of Worcester and intersects with
the Massachusetts Turnpike just south of Worcester
at Auburn.
While downtown prime commercial Jrand commands
$108 - $129 per square meter ($10 — $12 per square
foot) other in-city land zoned for industrial use
is available for about $8100 per hectare--$5.00
per square meter ($20,000 per acre or $.46 per square
foot). Suburban industrial zoned acreage,,, well-
located with respect to the majdr transportation
routes ranges in price from $10,000 to $18,000 per
hectare or $6.00 to $11.00 per square meter ($25,000
to $45,000 per acre or $.57 to $1.03 per square foot).
(4) Cost For New Bedford
The New Bedford metropolitan area contains approxi-
mately 191,000 people and includes the neighboring towns
of Dartmouth, Rochester, Westport, Acushnet, Fairhaven,
Freetown, Marion, Mattapoisett and Wareham. New Bed-
ford is in the southeast section of Massachusetts,
just East of Newport, Rhode Island and West of Cape
Cod. The city of New Bedford has a population of
100,000.
The major transportation route through New Bedford
is 1-195. Traffic from Boston into New Bedford is on
Route 140, while Routes 18 and 105 provide truck and

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freight connections from Brockton, a major warehousing
district to the North. Route 6 connects Wareham and
the New Bedford area with Cape Cod.
Considerable industrial land in the New Bedford
area is owned by a private non-profit foundation, the
Greater New Bedford Industrial Foundation. This
foundation sells land at competitive rates in order
to attract iñdhstryt6 the area. Most of the land is
organized into industrial parks ranging in size from
1,000 to 300,000 acres. Land may be obtained from
this foundation for as low as $5,000 per acre.
Generally the costs of land in New Bedford depend
on its readiness for building and the extent of avail-
able utilities. Industrial/commercial land with full
utilities and leveled for construction may cost as
much as $19,600 per acre. Property which is partially
served by utilities ranges in costs from $10,000 to
12,000 per acre or $.23 to $.27 per square foot. Some
conunercial/industrial property on the waterfront which
is part of a harbor development project is available
for lease at $6,000 per acre or $.14 per square foot.

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APPENDIX B
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS SUMMARY

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TABLE B-i
Salvage Values
At the end of the life cycle (5 years),
Building value* = $595,000
Land value* = $135,000
Equipment value = 0
* Factors used to compute building decay and land appreciation were
obtained from Comparative Cost Analysis for Decisions to Lease
or Purchase General Purpose Real Property , 0MB circular A-].04.

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TABLE B-2
Summary of Capital Investments
(1978 Dollars)
STATE
PRIVATE GARAGE
Challenge Garage
— Lanes
- Offices
- Paving
- Program Storage and
Laboratory Facility
2 per facility at
meters each
1 per facility at
meters
780 square meters er facility at
$19 per square meter
130 square meters at one challenge
garage at $359 per square meter
5:1 ratio of land to building area:
5 x 195 = 975 square meters at $26 in
Boston, $16 in Springfield and $11 in
Worcester and $3 in New Bedford ($ per
square meter)
650 square meters additional land for
program storage and laboratory facility
at $11 per square meter
Equipment
— Analyzer
- Computer
- Mobile Units
4 per challenge garage at $2,200 each
4 data entry devices at $1,000 each
5 at $14,200 including analyzer ($2,200)
generator ($2,000), hand tools ( OO)
and custom van ($9,500).
‘square meter
Land
1 per garage
at $2,000 ea.

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APPENDIX C
SU!4MARY OF START-UP COSTS

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TABLE C-i
Estimated Start-up Labor Costs For
Massachusetts Private Garage-Operated Inspection Program
(1978 Dollars)
Position Salary Number Cost
Director $24,000 1 $ 24,000
Field Enforcement 21,000 1 21,000
Manager
Statistician 15,500 1 15,500
Public Information - - -
Officer *
Training Of ficer* -
Garage Licensing 13,900 1 13,900
Supervisor
Maintenance Techni— 14,000 1 14,000
cian
Computer Programmer 16,500 1 16,500
Secretary 9,200 1 9,200
Data Clerks 8,500 2 17,000
Fringe Benefits (30%) 39,300
TOTAL $170,400
* Costs are included in public information and training
startup costs.

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TABLE C-2
Start-up Training Costs
(1978 Dollars)
State Inspectors (paid by State of Massachusetts)
2—week course for State inspectors:
1 Training Officer Salary
(6 months preparation) Benefits
48 Inspectors (2-weeks Salary
pay during course) Benefits
5 Supervisors ( 2-weeks Salary
pay during course) Benefits
Course Materials and
Other Expenses
1 Training Officer
(6 months preparation)
4200 Mechanics (4 days
pay during course)
Course Materials and
Other Expenses
$ 7,300
2,190
$21,600
6,480
$ 2,560
770
$ 3,000
$43,900
TOTAL
Garage Mechanics (paid by mechanics/garage)
32 hour course (similar to Colorado State University
course)
Salary $ 7,300
Benefits 2,200
Salary $649,800
$ 3,000
TOTAL $662,300

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TABLE C-3
Summary of Start-Up Costs
(1978 Dollars)
STATE PRIVATE GARAGE
Labor (See Table C-i)
Training $43,900 for two week $662,300 for 4
course for 53 inspectors day course for
and supervisors 4200 mechanics
(one per garage)
Public Informa- 29 per vehicle for 4.0*
tion million light duty vehicles
in 1981
Program Design $100,000
* Based on information received from rizona I/M program

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APPENDIX D
SUMMARY OF OPERATING COSTS

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TABLE D-1
Estimated Operating Labor Costs For
Massachusetts Private Garage Inspection Program
(1978 Dollars)
Position Salary Number Cost
Director $24,000 1 $ 24,000
Field Inspection! 21,000 1 21,000
Enforcement Mgr.
Statistician 15,500 1 15,500
Public Information 1
Off icer*
Training Officer 16,500 1 16,500
Field Enforcement 16,500 5 80,000
Supervisors
Maintenance Techni— 14,000 1 14,000
cian
Computer Programmer 16,500 1 16,500
Field Enforcement 13,500 70 910,000
Off icers**
Data Entry Clerks 9,300 3 27,900
Secretary 9,200 1 9,200
Data Clerks*** 8,500 3 25,500
Fringe Benefits (30%) 221,348
TOTAL 84 $1,508,000
* Costs are included in public infonnation operating costs.
** Officers who will inspeci- garages which have dppli for
certification, perform routine checks for certified garages,
respond to complaints about individuals stations, provide
insoections at the challencre qaraqes and perform other
routine surveillance activities.
Will also support garage licensing and data analysis activities.

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CHALLENGE
1 GARAGE
STAFF (9)
FIGURE D-1
Example of Organization Plan
for j 4assachusetts Motor Vehicle Inspection Program
I I
REGION I REGION
I II
SUPERVISOR L SUPERVISOR
STATE
GARAGE
INSPECTORS

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TABLE D-2
Garage Life-Cycle Operating Cost
For Emissions Inspection
Assumptions :
Labor Rate - $15 per hour (includes overhead)
Emissions Inspection Time - 5 minutes
Inspections and Reinspection - 27.5 million
Life Cycle Inflation Rate - 34%
Life Cycle Operating Cost :
$15 x x 27.5 million x 1.34 = 46,062,000

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TABLE D-3
Calculation of Fuel Oil Requirements and Cost
For a Massachusetts Challenge Garage
Average Hours at Heat Load Heat Loss Annual Night Energy Fuel
Outdoor Outdoor T Heat Loss Set Rack System Requirements Oil Use
Temperature Temperature ( 65°F) ( l0 Stu’s) ( l0 Bt&s) ( 106 Bttfs) Factor Efficiency ( 106 Btu•s) ( gallons )
62 804 3 6.1 6.1. 4.9 .82 .62 6.4 46 $ 23
57 781 8 16.2 10.1 7.9 .82 .64 72 36
52 766 13 26.3 20.2 15.5 .84 .68 19.1 136 68
47 757 18 36.4 30.2 22.9 .85 .68 28.6 204 102
42 828 23 46.5 40.3 33.4 .86 .69 41.6 297 148
37 848 28 56.6 50.4 42.7 .87 .69 53.8 384 192
32 674 33 66.7 60.5 40.8 .88 .70 51.3 366 183
27 429 38 76.9 70.6 30.3 .89 .70 38.5 275 138
22 256 43 86.9 80.7 20.7 .90 .71 26.2 187 93
17 151 48 97.1 90.9 13.7 .91 .71 17.6 126 63
12 74 53 107.2 101.0 7.5 .92 .72 9.6 69 35
7 35 58 117.3 111.1 3.9 .93 .72 5.0 36 18
2 4 63 127.4 121.2 .5 .94 .72 0.7 5 2
—3 9 68 137.5 131.3 1.3 .95 .72 1.7 __. ._
2214 $1107
Asswnptions :
Building Configuration = 45’O” x 450” x 12 0” high
Door Area = 200 ft 2
Window Area = 50
Heating valve of Fuel = 140,000 BTU/gallon
Boston Fuel Oil Price = $.50/ga l

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TABLE D-4
Calculation of Electricity Requirements and Cost
for a Massachusetts Challenge Garage
Lighting : Assuming 32 watts per square meter, the annual
electricity usage is:
32 watts per square meter x 195 square meters x 2600 hours per year
= 16,224 KWH per year
Compressor : 920 watts x 2 hours per day x 260 days per year
= 478 KWH per year
TOTAL ELECTRICAL CONStJMPT ION PER YEAR PER GARAGE
16,224 + 478 = 16,702 KWH
TOTAL COST PER YEAR PER GARAGE
16,702 x $0.05 per KWH = $835.

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Labor
Public Information
TABLE D-5
Summary of Operating Costs
(1978 Dollars)
STATE
(See Table D—l)
l0 per vehicle per*
year
PRIVATE GARAGE
(See Table D-1)
Other Operating Costs
Utilities & Supplies
Maintenance & Repair
$58,000 per year for
printing, computer
charges, mobile units,
and challenge garage
utilities**
$13,000 per year for
maintenance and repairs
on mobile vans, challenge
garages, and all emission
analyzers
$61 per year per
garage for calibra-
tion gas and analyzer
maintenance ’
* Based on Arizona I/M program
** Based on expenditures in existing Massachusetts inspection program and results derived
from conventional engineering estimating procedures
*** Based on industry sources.

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APPENDIX E
MASSACHUSETTS VEHICLE REGISTRATION

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TABLE E-1
Calculation of 1977 Massachusetts
Light Duty Vehicle Registration
Assume 74% of all commercial vehicles are less
than 10,000 lbs and that all buses are over
10,000 lbs.* Based on data supplied by the
Massachusetts Registry of Motor Vehicles, 1977
light duty vehicles (L.D.V.) registration is:
Passenger Vehicles 3,110,612
Motorcycles 86,233
Commercial Vehicles 241,191
State & Municipal Vehicles 32,000
TOTAL L.D.V.’s 3,470,036
Assume that 2.5% of all vehicles are older than
15 years**
TOTAL L.D.V.’s .975 x 3,470,036 =
(0—15 years old) 3.4 million
* Assumption based on national average of trucks owned, U.S. Bureau
of the Census, Census of Transportation, 1972 Truck Inventory and
Use Survey.
** Based on data supplied in MVMA Facts and Figures 1977.

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TABLE E-2
Calculation of Massachusetts Registration Growth,
1968—1977
Total Vehicles
Year Registered
1968 2,365,517
1969 2,456,692
1970 2,616,751
1971 2,748,298
1972 2,899,450
1973 3,067,550
1974 3,211,790
1975 3,317,770
1976 3,448,885
1977 3,599,688
1977 vehicles — 3,599,688 — 1 52
1968 vehicles — 2,365,517 —
1
Average Annual Growth: (1.52)10 = 1.043
or
4.3% per year.

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TABLE E-3
Summary of Vehicle Population
1977 Registered Light Duty Vehicle
(Less than 15 years old) (LDV’S)* 3.4 million
Average Annual Growth (1968 - 1977)* 4.3 Percent
Projected 1961 LDV’s ** 4.0 million
Projected Life Cycle Vehicles
(1982 — 1986) *** 22.9 million
Projected Life Cycle Inspection **** 27.5 million
* Source: Conmtonwealth of Massachusetts, Registry of Motor
Vehicles
** (l.O43) x 3.4 million
9
(1.0431 x 3.4 million)
i=5
Assumes a retest rate of 20 percent

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APPENDIX F
SUMMARY OF TOTAL LIFE CYCLE COSTS,
INFLATION ASSUMPTIONS, AND INSPECTION FEE CALCULATION

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TABLE F-i
Five Year Life Cycle Cost Element Summary
(1982 — 1986 Dollars)
COST ELEMENTS
Building
$ 855,000
Land
166,000
U
Equipment — State
— Private Garages
190,000
14,887,000
Labor — State
261,000
Program Design
153,000
p4
Public Information
1,777,000
Ei
Training - State
- Private Garages
67,000’
1,068,000
Labor — State
10,353,000
— Private Garages
46,062,000
z
Public Information
3,070,000
rz

Other Operating Costs - State
— Garages
458,000
1,486,000

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TABLE F-2
Assumed Inflation Index
Year Index
1978 1.00
1979 1.05
1980 1.10
1981 1.16
1982 1.21
1983 1.28
1984 1.34
1985 1.41
1986’ 1.48
Assumptions Pertaining to Inflation
All capital investments and start—up costs
will be incurred in 1981.
All operating costs are subject to a common
inflation rate throughout the life cycle.
The average index applied to operating costs
is:
1.21 + 1.28 + 1.34 + 1.41 + 1.48 —
5 — 1.34

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TABLE F-3
Inspection Fee Calculation
Life
Cycle Investment Cost = ICC =
(Building + Land + Equipment)
i(l-i .i) 5 r
x 5 x J — L
(l+i) — i
x 1.16
Building and
Salvage Value
Land
[
Life Cycle Start-up Cost = SUC =
(Labor + Training + Public Information + Program
Design)
i (l+i)
x 1.16 x 5 x
(1+i) - 1
Life Cycle Operating Cost = CCC =
(Labor + Public Information + Other Operating Costs)
x 1.34
AVERAGE ANNUAL COST (INSPECTION FEE ) =
ICC + SUC + 0CC
22.9 million vehicles

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APPENDIX G
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS CALCULATIONS

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1. INTEREST RATE
If the State interest rate is 8% (instead of 10%),
then:
Life Cycle Investment Cost - State $ 441,000
— Garage $ 14,887,000
Life Cycle Start—up Cost — State $ 2,190,000
— Garage $ 1,068,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost — State $ 13,88a,000
— Garage $ 47,548,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State $ 16,519,000
— Garage $ 63,503,000
Average Annual Cost per vehicle
— State $ .72
— Garage $ 2.77
- TOTAL $ 3.49

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If the State interest rate is 12% (instead of 10%),
then:
Life Cycle Investn ent Cost - State $ 542,000
— Garage $ 14,887,000
Life Cycle Start-up Cost - State $ 2,378,000
— Garage $ 1,068,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost - State $ 13,888,000
— Garage $ 47,548,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State $ 16,808,000
— Garage $ 63,503,000
Average Annual Cost per Vehicle
- State $ .73
- Garage $ 2.77
- TOTAL $ 3.50

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2. INFLATION RATE
If the inflation rate is 10% per year (instead of
5%), then
Life Cycle Investment Cost - State $ 656,000
— Garage l7,l05,’ 00
Life Cycle Start-up Cost - State 2,590,000
— Garage 1,163,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost — State 18,521,000
— Garage 63,507,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State 21,767,000
— Garage 81,775,000
Average Annual Cost per Vehicle
— State $ .95
- Garage $ 3.57
— TOTAL $ 4.52

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If the inflation rate is 3% per year (instead of
5%), then:
Life Cycle Investment Cost - State $ 405,000
— Garage $ 13,989,000
Life Cycle Start-up Cost - State $ 2,122,000
— Garage $ 1,003.000
Life Cycle Operating Cost - State $ 12,474,00Q
— Garage $ 42,714,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State $ 15,001,000
— Garage $ 57,706,000
Average Annual Cost per Vehicle
- State $ .66
— Garage $ 2.52 .
- TOTAL $ 3.28

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3. PROGRAM LIFE CYCLE
If life cycle is three years (instead of 5 years),
then:
Life Cycle Investment Cost - State $ 377,000
— Garage $ 13,495,000
Life Cycle Start—up Cost - State $ 2,070,000
— Garage $ 968,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost - State $ 7,235,000
— Garage $ 24,774,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State $ 9,682,000
— Garage $ 39,237,000
Average Annual Cost per Vehicle
— State $ .74
- Garage $ 2.99
- TOTAL $ 3.63

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If life cycle is 10 years (instead of 5 years),
then:
Life Cycle Investment Cost - State $ 905,000
— Garage $ 37,971,000
Life Cycle Start—up Cost - State $ 2,784,000
— Garage $ 1,359,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost — State $ 31,494,000
— Garage $107,875,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State $ 35,183,000
— Garage $147,205,000
Average Annual Cost per Vehicle
— State $ .69
- Garage $ 2.88
- TOTAL $ 3.57

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4. NUMBER OF CERTIFIED GARAGES
If 3000 garages are certified (instead of 4200),
then:
Life Cycle Investment Cost - State $ 481,000
— Garage $ 10,634,000
Life Cycle Start—up Cost - State $ 2,258,000
— Garage $ 769,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost — State $ 13,888,000
— Garage $ 47,072,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State $ 16,627,000
— Garage $ 58,475,000
Annual Average Cost per Vehicle
— State $ .73
— Garage $ 2.55
- TOTAL $ 3.28

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If 5000 garages are certified (instead of 4200),
then:
Life Cycle Investment Cost — State $ 481,000
— Garage $ 17,723,000
Life Cycle Start—up Cost - State $ 2,258,UUU
— Garage $ 1,267,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost - State $ 13,888,000
— Garage $ 47,746,000
Total Life Cycle Cost — State $ 16,627,000
— Garage $ 66,736,000
Average Annual Cost per Vehicle
— State $ .73
— Garage $ 2.91
- TOTAL $ 3.64

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5. MANUAL DATA HANDLING AND ANALYSIS
If state labor requirements are increased by 6
data clerks and the computer progranuner, 3 data
entry clerks, computer equipment and charges are
deleted, then:
Life Cycle Investment Cost - State $ 472,000
— Garage $ 14,887,000
Life Cycle Start—up Cost — State $ 2,288,000
— Garage $ 1,068,000
Life Cycle Operating Cost — State $ 13,867,000
— Garage $ 47,548,000
Total Life Cycle Cost - State $ 16,627,000
— Garage $ 63,504,000
Average Annual Cost per Vehicle
— State $ 73
- Garage $ 2.77
- TOTAL $ 3.50

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APPENDIX H
GLOSSARY

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GLOSSARY
AMBIENT AIR : The surrounding or outside air.
CALIBRATION GASES : A blend of HC and CO gases using nitro-
gen as a carrier gas.
CAPITAL INVESTMENT : Initial expenditures for goods neces-
sary for the operation of a program (e.g., building, land
and equipment).
CERTIFIED MECHANIC : An individual licensed by the State
to inspect motor vehicle engine emissions related components
and pollution control devices for compliance with specified
emissions standards.
CERTIFIED STATION : A private facility licensed by the State
to inspect motor vehicle engine emissions related comoonents
and pollution control devices for compliance with specified
emissions standards.
EMISSION INSP CTION/MAINTENANCE PROGRAM : An inspection and
maintenance program in which each vehicle is subjected at
specified intervals to a test of its emissions under speci-
fied conditions. The emission levels are compared with a
standard established for the vehicle class. If the emissions
are higher than the standards, the vehicle is failed and
must be adjusted or repaired to bring its emissions into
compliance with the standards.
EXHAUST GAS ANALYZER : An instrument for sensing the amount
of air contaminants in the exhaust emissions of a motor
vehicle.
EXHAUST EMISSIONS : The products of combustion emitted
into the ambient air from any opening downstream of the
exhaust ports of a motor vehicle engine.
HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE : Any motor vehicle designed for highway
use which has a gross vehicle weight of more than 10,000
pounds.
IDLE TEST : An emission inspection program which measures
the exhaust emission from a motor vehicle operating at
idle (no motion of the rear wheels.) A vehicle with an

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automatic transmission may be in drive gear with brakes
applied or in neutral gear.
INSPECTION FEE : Annual payment for inspecting a vehicle.
INSPECTOR : An individual who inspects motor vehicles and
pollution control devices for compliance with applicable
regulations.
LIFE CYCLE COSTS : Total of all costs incurred by a program
during a predetermined period (life cycle).
LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE : A motor vehicle designed for highway
use of less than 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight. Further
distinctions are sometimes made between light—duty auto-
mobiles and light-duty trucks such as pickup trucks.
MODEL YEAR OF ENGINE : The production period of new vehicle
or new vehicle engines designated by the calendar year in
which such period ends.
OPERATING COSTS : Annual costs incurred during the operation
of a program.
START-UP COSTS : Initial expenditures for services neces-
sary for laying the foundation of a program (e.g., initial
labor costs, initial training, initial public information
and program design).
VEHICLE EMISSIONS STANDARD : A specific emission limit
allowed for the class of vehicles. The standard is nor-
mally expressed in terms of maximum allowable concentra—
tions of pollutants (e.g., parts per million) - However, a
standard could also be expressed in terms of mass emissions
per unit of time or distance traveled (e.g., grams per
mile).

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