Volume III-A
Special Study Report
Labor Demand Impact
and Labor Market Feasibility
of Energy Conversion Facilities
in the Ohio River Basin
Robert C. Dauffenbach and Thomas P. Milke
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
May 15, 1977
PHASE
OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY STUDY
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021725
OHIO RIVER BASIN ENERGY STUDY
Volume III-A
SPECIAL STUDY REPORT
LABOR DEMAND IMPACT
AND LABOR MARKET FEASIBILITY
OF ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITIES
IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIS
Robert C. Dauffenbach
Thomas P. Milke
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
May 15, 1977
Prepared for
Office of Energy, Minerals,
and Industry
Office of Research and
Development
U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency
Washington, D.C.
Grant Number R804821-01
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PREFACE
I wish to thank Dr. William Schriver and Jason Kim of
the Federal Intera’jency Construction Task Force: Energy
Sector for the use of their data on construction manpower
requirements and for their assistance in preparinq tne
construction requirements projections.
In particular, I wish to thank Tom Milke and Eric
Hoishouser for their assistance on several facets of this
project. Tom Milke was especially resourceful on the supply
side of this study. Without his knowledge of the subject
and experience in the area, the supply analysis, which
proved to be essential to ascertainxr ent of the feasibility
of the scenarios, would have been murh more difficult to
perform. Eric liolshouser assisted with data gatherinq
throughout the project and modeled the coal manpower
projections. Ron Knecht is thanked for gathering data on
training capacity in the four—state region.
Hattie Price deserves special credit for her extra
efforts expended in the completion of the study. Hattie not
only typed the final report, but also assisted we on several
occasions in data calculations. Sandy McGhee is also
thanked for her contributions.
Responsibility for the contents of this report belongs
solely to the principal investigator. Opinions expressed
herein do not necessary reflect those of the University of
Illinois or the Environmental Protection Agency.
Robert C. Dauffenbach
hI—A—ui
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C ON TENTS
PREFACE. . I l l—A—ui
1. INTRODUCTION Ill—A—i
1. 1 RESEARCH PURPOSE . Ill—A— i
1.2 RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER ORBES ELEMENTS III—A—2
1.3 PROBLEM STATEMENT III—A—3
1.4 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES III—A—5
1.5 PRINCIPAL FINDINGS III—A—5
1.5.1 MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS Ill—A—S
1.5.2 LABOR SUPPLY III—A—7
1.5.3 BALANCE OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY 11 1-A - -S
2. SCENARIO LABOR REQUiREMENTS I l l—A— il
2.1 INTRODUCTION Il l—A—il
2.2 CONSTRUCTION TIME—PHASING Ill—A—il
2.3 DIRECT CONSTRUCTION MANPOWER REQUUIREMENTS. . ...... III—A—13
2.3.1 INTRODUCTION III—A— 13
2.3.2 DIRECT CONTRUCTION BY STATE PORTION III—A—17
2.3.3 OCCUPATION DETAIL BY SCENARIO III—A—20
2.3.4 MULTIPLIER EFFECTS III—A—25
2.4 OPERATIONS t. MAINTENANCE PERSONNEL III—A—28
2.4.1 DIRECT OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE REQUIREMENTS III—A—28
2.4.2 MULTIPLIER EFFECTS III—A—28
2.5 COAL MINING MANPOWER III—A-34
2.5.1 INTRODUCTION III—A—34
2.5.2 METHODOLOGY III—A—35
2.5.3 PROJECTION RESULTS III—A—3
2.5.4 MULTIPLIER EFFECTS III—A—41
2.6 COMPONENT AGGREGATES . III—A—4 1
Ill—A—v
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LABOR SUPPLY IN ¶IHE BASIN . III—A-
3.1 INTRODUCTION. III—A-4
3.2 POPULATION Ill—A — s
3.3 PROJECTIONS OF THE LABOR FORCE Ill_A_ c
3.3.1 INTRODUCTION III—A—
3.3.2 METHODOLOGY III—A—
3.4 CAPACITY FOR TRAINING 111—A —!
BALANCE OF 5UPPL AND DEMAND I l l—A— i
4.1 INThCEUCTIUN Ill—A— i
4.2 ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK.............. 1 1 1H
4.3 EVALUATION OF PROJECTION SHORTFALLS Il l—A— i
4.3.1 STAGE1ANALYSIS III—A--
4.3.2 STAGE2ANALYSIS III—A—
4.3.3 STAGE 3 ANALYSIS III—A—
4.3.4 STAGE 4 ANALYSIS 1 11—A—
4.4 POTENTIAL FORSHORTAGES Ill—A—
II I—A—vi
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1 1 1—A— F l COAL MINING LABOR REQUIREMENTS, DIRECT AND TOTAL. ..III-A—42
III—A—18 SCENARIO DIRECT REQUIREMENTS. III—A—43
III—A—19 SCENARIO TOTAL REQUIREMENTS III—A—44
III—A—20 OHIO RIVER BASIN LABOR FORCE—1980 III—A—54
11I—i —2 1 (rn10 1V k EASI&’ LAi Oh i CbCE—1’,85 III—A55
III—A—22 C. E 1C }-ivLk E/ II Le .Ui hGI CL—199 III—A—56
III—A—23 OHIO RIVER BASIN LABOR FORCE—2 ø III—i --57
III—A—24 VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS, CONSTRUCTION AND
MAINTENANCE OCCUPATIONS, 1974—1976, ILLINOIS II1—A—60
III—A—25 VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS, CONSTRUCTION AND
MAINTENANCE OCCUPATIONS, 1974—1976, INDIANA III—A—61
III-A—26 VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS, CONSTRUCTION AND
MAINTENANCE OCCUPATIONS, 1974—1976, KENTUCKY.......III—A—62
III-A—27 VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ENROLLMENTS CONSTRUCTION AND
MAINTENANCE OCCUPATIONS, 1974—1976, OHIO III—A—63
III—A—28 APPRENTICESHIPS PROGRAM LEVELS GENERAL CONTRACTORS
AND SPECIALIZED CONSTRUCTION CRAFTS, ILLINOIS,
INDIANA, KENTUCKY, AND OHIO III—A—64
III-A—29 OHIO RIVER BASIN, CHANGES IN PROJECTED LABOR FORCE
SELECTED YEARS III—A—70
III—A—30 STAGE 1 RATIO, CHANGE IN TOTAL REQUIREMENTS TO
CHANGE IN TOTAL LABOR FORCE, SELECTED YEARS III—A-72
III—A—31 STAGE 2 RATIO, CHANGE IN DIRECT REQUIREMENTS TO
CHANGE IN MALE LABOR FORCE, SELECTED YEARS III—A—73
III—A—32 STAGE 3 RATIO, CHANGE IN TOTAL REQUIREMENTS TO
CHANGE IN NEW ENTRANTS LABOR FORCE, SELECTED
YEARS III—A—75
III-A—33 STAGE 4 RATIO, CHANGE IN DIRECT REQUIREMENTS TO
CHANGE IN NEW ENTRANT—MALE LABOR FORCE, SELECTED
YEARS...... . . III—A—77
III—A—viii
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FIGURES
I l l—A — i DIRECT CONSTRUCTION MANPO1 EI ,
OHIO IcIVER BASIN, 19762000 1 1 1A16
III-A-2 ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED POPULATION, OtilO RIVER
BASIN, 1950—2010 1 1 1A49
III—A—ix
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APPENDICES
A. POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE OHIO RIVER BASIN: 1970 TO 20
B. APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING LEVELS, BY STATE: 1973 TO 1976
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1. INTROCUCTIC2
1.1 RESEARCH PURPOSE
Researchers performing the various tasks of the Ohio
River Basin Energy Study (ORBES) have based their analysis
on four scenarios for electric power generation:
1. Sureau of Mines, 80% Coal/20% Nuclear
2. Bureau of Mines, 50% Coal/50% Nuclear
3. Ford Technical Fix, Coal
4. Ford Technical Fix, huclear
These alternative scenarios were developed in Task 1 of the
project. Readers are referred to the Task 1 report for a
complete discussion of the development and specification of
these scenarios.
Each scenario presents its own distinct set of labor
market implications. The BOM scenarios, based as they are
on a high rate of economic growth and consequent growth in
the demand for energy, require the construction of a large
number of energy facilities. The mix of coal and nuclear
plants presented in the two BOM scenarios are likely to
impact the labor market differentially by both level and
type of manpower requirements. The regional economic impact
of the BOM 80/20 scenario is, furthermore, likely to surpass
its counterpart in coal—miner manpower requirements,
provided, of course, that the new coal requirements are met
by production in the region. Scenarios based on the FTF
model are likely to present appreciably lower manpower
requirements. In fact, plants currently in planning and
scheduled to be on—line by l S5 will satisfy the projected
FTF demand until the mid l S s. But here again there are
likely to be differentials between FTF scenarios because of
the all coal or all nuclear specifications for new plants
needed after the mid—1990s.
The primary purpose of this s ecia1 study project is to
estimate the labor demand impacts of these alternative
scenarios. Questions we attempt to answer include:
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1. How do the scenarios differ in terms of direct
construction employment impact and the time—phasing
of the impact?
2. What components of the occupational distribution of
construction manpower requirements are particularly
impacted by the scenarios?
3. What is the level and time—phasing of operations
and maintenance personnel requirements?
4. What are the “derived demand” levels of coal
manpower associated with each scenario?
5. What are the probable secondary employment gains
attributable to each scenario?
We attempt to go beyond mere observance of ]emand
aspects of the new facility construction by examining
various facets of labor supply. Although we are severely
limited by the state—of—the—art of supply analysis and the
availability of regional data on labor supply, we analyze
several predominate features of labor supply by projecting
population and labor force participation for the basin to
the year 2000. Sce also examine data on the capacity for
training manpower of particular types. Combining demand and
supply facets, we are able to develop crude measures of
labor market balance under the alternative scenarios.
Concisely stated, our research purpose is to attach
manpower estimates to the alternative energy conversion
scenarios and to appraise the overall balance of the labor
market relative to the projected increase in the labor
supply.
1.2 RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER ORBES ELEMENTS
This study has relied to a considerable extent on
research in other areas of the ORBES project for provision
of the basic data needed for manpower projection. These
primary data inputs are: (1) number, size, and location of
new facilities; and (2) time—phasing of plant construction
(on—line dates). Of course, we were required to use the
projected new plant construction in estimating manpower
requirements. However, considerable latitude was available
for setting the time—phasing. We could have developed our
own, but for purposes of comparability, we chose to use
construction schedule3 ceveloped by the University of
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Illinois and Ohio State Task 2 teams. Our understandina is
that several ORBES projects have used these construction
schedules. Thus, a considerable basis for comparison of
results and alianrnent of findings to form a comprehensive
appraisal of socio—economic and environmental impacts is
possible.
There is one notable exception to our use of the data
and results from other phases of the UREES project:
population projections. We undertook the task of performing
our own population projection study for three reasons.
First, we found the population estimates of the Task 1
report to be exceptionally high given current fertility and
migration data. Second, we needed a time—phasing of
population growth in order to otoject arowth of the labor
force. Third, we needed projections based on data
disaggregated by age, race, and sex because there is
considerable variation among demographic groups in labor
force participation rates. We believe that our population
projections, because they are based on more recent data,
provide a more reliable basis for labor force projection.
As a special study project, we have attempted to stay
as close as possible to the basic data of the Task 1 report
and subsequent reports specifying the time—phasing of
construction. Operating in this manner, we hope to ensure a
high degree of interproject comparability.
1.3 PROBLEM STATEMENT
In assessing the labor market impacts of the
alternative energy conversion scenarios, there are several
categories of labor demands that are potentially important.
We can categorize these demand impacts as follows:
A. Direct construction, and operations and maintenance
employment.
B. Secondary employment effects.
C. Indirect supplier industry employment.
D. Facilitory industry emp1o ment effects.
Category A is the most obvious. It represents employment
generated by building, operating, and maintaining the new
power stations. Category B represents the increase in
service sector employment resulting from the additional
employment in primary sectors. Category C is the employment
generated by supplying the new energy facilities with raw
materials for construction and operation. By facilitory
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industry employment, Category D, we mean induced industry
employment made possible by the presence of additional
power—generation capacity. Facilitory employment recognizes
that the power generation capacity of a region is a type of
resource base that can attract new industry to an area and
lead to an expansion of old industry.
Our ability to measure demand impacts varies
considerably across the categories. Direct employment
effects are the easiest to measure; facilitory impacts, the
most difficult. Direct impacts can be measured on a
sampling basis by developing construction—manpower profiles
for energy facilities of various types and sizes. The
manpower profiles would also vary by construction phase.
Generally, manpower requirements begin with low values, peak
in the middle of the building phase, and taper off as the
project nears completion. Projecting manpower requirements
for any given month, then, involves the simple addition of
the manpower profiles of plants under construction in that
time period respective to the phase of construction of each
plant.
Facilitory impacts are very difficult to measure
because there is a lack of empirical research on how energy
availability and cost affects industry location. Given the
existence of a profusion of transmission networks for
electricity transportation, it is not clear that the
presence of increased capacity in the ORB region would have
significant induced—industry employment impacts. Capacity
increases could be used to sujport industry in other
regions. Thus, the facilitory effects may be small for
electricity generation. Certainly, the state of regional
science prevents measurement of facilitory impacts with any
degree of sophistication.
The theoretical and applied basis for analyzing
secondary and indirect employment effects is somewhat more
advanced. Local area multipliers have been developed to
estimate secondary employment. Indirect employment is more
difficult to calculate on a regional basis because of the
lack of regional input—output models. However, there is one
category of indirect employment, potentially of considerable
size, that has a significant induced response with respect
to electricity generation: coal—mining manpower. This
category of indirect employment can be readily measured
given conversion efficiencies and capacity utilized. Coal
deposits represent an important natural resource of the ORB
region. The various scenarios, of course, present
substantially different patterns of coal use for energy
conversion. The derived demand patterns for coal—mining
III—A—4
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manpower that result from these scenarios should prove
interesting.
1.4 RESEARC}f OBJECTIVES
All categories of manpower impacts cannot be examined
in a study of this scope. Data bases on a regional level
simply are not available to measure some of the more
nebulous types of labor market impacts, particularly the
indirect and facilitory impacts. Nevertheless, we believe
that the categories of demand impacts we are able to study
represent the predominant elements of total impacts. There
are four major components:
1. Construction;
2. Operations and maintenance;
3. Coal mining manpower;
4. Regional multiplier effects.
The principle objective of this research is to provide
manpower projections for the first three categories on the
basis of the alternative scenarios for energy conversion.
Regional multipliers effects accompany each type of
manpower. The second objective is to present projections of
labor supply for the ORB region to the year 2000. The third
is to analyze the demand and supply data for possible
indications of labor market imbalance. The feasibility of
the scenarios is in question, feasibility with respect to
the ability of the labor market to provide the necessary
manpower supplies.
1.5 PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
The principal findings of this study are discussed
below in three sections.
1.5.1 MANPOWER REQUIi’ EMENTS
Four separate types of nwripower requirements were
analyzed: direct construction; operations and maintenance;
coal—mining manpower; and induced service sector employment.
These are not all of the expected employment impacts; thus,
the total impact is underestimated by their sum.
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1.5.1.1 DIRECT CONSTRUCTION
Direct construction requirements vary substantially,
even between alternate specifications of the same scenario.
Peak requirements are, of course, higher for the BOM
scenario. In 1989, 31 thousand are required for the BOM
80/20; 36 thousand, for the BOM 50/50. The BOM requirements
show substantial year—to—year variation. Of particular
significance is the initial shock of increased construction
activity. BOM 80/20 requirements nearly double between 1982
and 1983 (10,745 to 20,226) ; BOM 50/50 requirements rise by
over 300 percent between 1983 and 1984 (6,818 to 27,566).
Substantial shocks such as these are very difficult for the
labor market to adjust to.
The FTF coal scenario shows relatively slow adjustment
to reasonably low requirements. In addition, requirements
are almost constant from 1986 to 1997, at 7000. FTF nuclear
reaches maximum requirements of 11,000, a level not
substantially higher than esti’nated energy construction
employment levels in the basin in recent years. Indeed,
under the FTF scenarios, direct construction employment will
drop to approximately one—half its present level before it
then begins to build up again. Once employment begins to
increase, the year—to—year change is reasonably small.
1.5.1.2 OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE
Operations and maintenance requirements reach a level
of 25.5 thousand under the BOM sc:narios; 12.2 thousand
under the FTFs. The pattern of growth to these higher
levels is slow and stable.
1.5.1.3 COAL—MINING MANPOWER
Assuming that all coal needed to fire the new plants is
mined in the ORB region, we project that year 2000
requirements will be: 57.6 thousand, BOM 80/20; 37.6
thousand, BOM 50/50; 15.1 thousand, FTF coal; 8.9 thousand,
FTF nuclear.
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1.5.1.4 TOTAL REQUIRENE S
Cirect reQuirements consist of the year—to—year sum of
direct construction, operations and maintenance, and coal—
mining requirements. Peak levels under the scenario are:
99.2 thousand, EON 80/20 (1999); 87.1 thousand, BOM 50/50
(1998); 30.2 thousand, FTF coal (1996); and, 26.6 thousand,
FTF nuclear (1993) . tjsinq regional multipliers to estimate
induced service sector responses, we project peak levels of
243 thousand, EON 80/20 (1998) ; 213 thousand, BOM 50/50
(1998) ; 74 thousand, F’lF coal (1998) ; and 6 thousand, FTF
nuclear (1993)
1.5.2 LABOR SUPPL’
Population and labor force participation projections
are the basic inqredients for projectinq labor supply. e
have performed this analysis for the ORE region.
1.5.2.1 POPULATION
Cur population orojections indicate a year 2000
estimate of 21.1 million people, a 15 percent increase over
1975 levels. consider this estimate to be conservative
in terms of the differential between our projected values
and those of orevious studies. Current fertility levels are
substantially below the 2.19 averace fertility we used in
the projections. Our estimate is 8.2 percent below the 23
million projected population presented in the Task 1 report.
e used the component approach to population projection
which projects the population of demoqraphic qroups
disagqreaated into age/sex/race categories. The
disaggregated projections were useful for projecting the
labor force, since labor torce participation varies
substantially among groups.
1.5.2.2 LABOR FORCE
e project a labor torce of 9.4 million by 2000, a 14.2
percent increase over the 1980 projected value. The male
labor force is Projected to be only 12 nercent hiqher,
however. rihus, our results reflect risina participation of
females. The problem is that few females are employed in
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tre occutations most useful to meetino the direct
requirements of the scenarios.
Our projections also show considerable flattening of
the age structure of participation. The under 30 work force
is projected to account for 39.4 percent of the 1980 ORB
labor pool. By 2000, we expect this percentage to drop to
29.9. This is a very significant decrease. The decline
occurs where we need it least, among the malleable component
of the work force that is more responsive to changing demand
for labor patterns.
1.5.2.3 TRAINING CAPACITY
Examination of vocational and apprenticeship
enrollments for the ORB states reveals some very disturbing
signs. Program completions for construction crafts are low,
particularly when one considers that only a small portion of
construction manpower is used to build power plants.
Apprenticeship levels in the construction crafts have
actually decreased in recent years. Since we have only
three years of data, it is not possible to project trends.
But, certainly careful planning will be necessary in order
to insure an adequate supply of construction manpower, even
under the FTF scenarios.
1.5.3 BALANCE OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY
We have formed ratios of the change in labor
requirements to the change in the labor force over selected
time intervals to estimate the impact of a scenario on the
labor market. This analysis is done at several levels, each
higher level reflecting a more constrained supply viewpoint.
The third level provides us with the most insightful view of
labor market impacts. This level considers only the
increase in the relatively young components of the work
force, under 40 years, for measuring the per period increase
in the labor force. This group has shown greater propensity
for movement to expanding industries and occupations.
Several of its members are not as yet settled in a career,
or are willing to change careers given proper incentive.
The under 40 breakpoint, of course, presents an optimistic
count of the malleable work force. Many of these people are
settled in careers and, thus, have low propensities of
movements.
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The analysis leads us to the conclusion that the BOM
scenarios are unfeasible in relation to the probable growth
of the labor force. The labor force is growing the least
when the scenario requirements are the highest. In fact,
between 1990 and 2000 when requirements peak, we project a
decline in the under 40 labor forqe of over 350 thousand.
The BOM scenarios are rendered unfeasible by this analysis.
The FTF scenarios are even called into question because
requirements also increase substantially when the young
labor force is contracting.
We consider the impact tests to be weak tests of labor
market balance. No assumptions are made about the entrance
paths to the labor market, that is, the percent of the labor
force that will seek employment in areas that satisfy
scenario requirements. Everyone does not want to build
power plants, operate or maintain them, or work in a coal
mine. Our weak tests assume that a large proportion of the
increase in labor supply will be available to these types of
employment. Actually, competition for new supplies of labor
will be keen. The number of workers available to industries
and occupations that satisfy scenario requirements will be
lower than we have estimated.
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2. SCENARIO LABOR REQUIREMENTS
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Under the BOM energy scenarios, a large number of new
electricity generating facilities will rieea to be
constructed and on—line between 1985 and 2000. For the tour
state portions, the total number of new plants exceeds 160.
This large volume of new plant construction has the
potential to send shockwaves through the labor market of the
ORB region, particularly when there will be substantial
impact on construction occupations. These occupations tend
to have low “elasticities of supply,” that is, the volume of
labor services offered tends in the short—run not to be very
responsive to changes in the demand for labor. Under such
conditions, increases in demand for labor result primarily
in an increase in wage levels relative to the increase in
labor supply. However, smooth transitions to nigher
employment levels allow time for supply to respond to the
increased demand.
Thus we see that there are two elements of primary
concern on the demand side of the labor market: 1. The
level of labor demand impact of the alternative scenarios;
and 2. The time—phasing of that impact. When the demand
level impact is small and the time—phasing to the higher
levels does not indicate abrupt chanqes in labor demand, the
overall impact is low. The labor market under such
conditions would be more capable of supplying the demand
requirements without drastic impact on relative wages and,
consequently, the cost ot facility construction. With
abrupt demand changes, an otherwise teasible higher demand
level would not be practical from the viewpoint at the
supply side ot the labor market.
2.2 CONSTRUCTION TIME—PHASING
Projections are presented on the basis or four
scenarios for the aeneration of electricity from 19/6 to
2000. The scenarios are:
I l l—A— Il
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1. BOM 80 Coal/20 Nuclear
2. BOM 50 Coal/SO Nuclear
3. FTF Coal
4. FTF Nuclear
For the time—phasing of the new plant construction, the
construction phasing prepared by Steven Gordon of the Ohio
Task 2 team and by Ross Martin of the Illinois Task 2 team
were used. Gordon prepared the BOM construction phasing
while Martin prepared the FTF ones.
Scheduling of plants under the BOM scenarios through
1985 was easily accomplished since these plants are already
in planning stages. Gordon specified post—1985 construction
with the aid of a number of assumptions:
1. Each utility company operates independently.
2. Each company avoids building many plants at one
time.
3. Each utility will transfer electric power from one
portion of its own service area to another before
it buys from another company.
4. Each utility will distribute its construction
linearly with respect to time.
5. Each utility will distribute its construction
commitments randomly with respect to location.
For the BOM 80/20 scenario, Gordon’s time—phasing
specifies the construction of 224 plants. Seventy—five
percent of these plants are to be on—line between 1985 and
2000. Because these plants are generally larger than the
ones scheduled to be on—line by 1985, this bunching of
construction in the 1985 to 2000 period should represent a
considerable increase in manpower requirements.
Development of the FTP construction phasing presented
an entirely different problem. Plants currently in planning
and scheduled to be on—line by 1985 provide sufficient power
to satisfy FTP projected energy demands for the region until
the mid—1990s. Thus the problem ot FTF phasing was how to
stretch—out” planned construction over a twenty—year
period. Ross Martin of the Illinois team has constructed a
schedule that phases new plants so that the on—line capacity
corresponds with the FTF projected requirements. Martin
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specifies the construction o 93 plants for the FTF coal
scenario and slightly fewer for FTF nuclear because these
plants are specified at 1000 MWe as opposed to 600 M e for
coal. Martin’s plant phasing also specifies that 75 percent
of the new plants will be on—line between 1985 and 2000.
The Gordon and Martin schedules both indicate a lower
volume of construction activity for plants scheduled to come
on—line between 1980 and 1985. Only 11.6 and 6.4 percent of
capacity is installed between 1980 and 1985 in the BOM 80/20
and FTF coal scenarios. This compares with 21.9 and 20.4
percent between l9 5 ana 199 . Consecuently, we should have
a substantial increase in manpower recuirements beninninc
about 1983 under the various scenarios. The increase will
be less dramatic for the FTF scenarios because of the lower
volume of construction activity.
2.3 DIRECT CONSTRUCTICN MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS
2.3.1 INTF
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differential between coal and nuclear facilities of
comparable size.
Given the start date, type of facility, and the
construction profile, calculations of construction
requirements for any given month are determined through
summation of the individual plant requirements. The
requirements per plant will vary by the stage of
construction. Requirements generally peak in the middle
months of the construction period. No productivity changes
are projected in the labor profiles. Only a linear
extrapolation is used.
Table Ill—A—i and Figure Ill—A—i show direct
construction requirements under the alternative scenarios.
The largest construction requirements occur, not
surprisingly, under the BOM 50/50 scenario. In June, 1989,
35.5 thousand construction workers are projected for the ORB
region. The highest level of requirements under an FTF
scenario is 10.9 thousand, occurring under the FTF nuclear
scenario in 1993. Thus, there is a considerable
differential between BOM and FTF with respect to both level
and timing of construction reauirement peaks.
The differential between the BOM scenarios is
attributable to the mix of coal/nuclear plants. The average
differential over the 1985—2000 period is 4,053 workers.
This differential is, in all probability, grossly
underestimated. Nuclear plant construction periods are
increasing rapidly as certification requirements increase.
In a recent conversation with Dr. William Schriver, who
heads the energy sector modeling of construction
requirements for the Federal Interagency Construction Task
Force, he said that nuclear construction periods of ninety—
seven months, a 30 percent increase over the 1973—75 period,
are not uncommon in their new sample data. Coal facility
construction periods are also rising as higher smoke stacks
and scrubbers are more often required. Dr. Schriver does
not know, as yet, how much manpower requirements will rise.
They are now in the process of updating their model to
include the new estimates. Although he does not believe
that manpower requirements will grow in proportion to the
expanding construction periods, some increases are expected.
The changes will be more pronounced for nuclear scenarios
and, thus, differentials between coal and nuclear are
expected to widen.
III—A—l4
-------
Table 111—A—i
Ohio River Basin
Direct Construction Employment
Year BOM 80/20 BOM 50/50 FTF—Coal FTF Nuclear
1976 10611 10611 4358 4358
1977 11312 11312 2458 2458
1978 9595 9595 1136 1136
1979 8296 8296 1547 154
1980 7511 7511 1469 146
1981 8362 8144 1621 1621
1982 10745 7656 2009 2009
1983 20226 6818 3014 3014
1984 26761 27566 4768 4768
1985 21916 26150 6410 6410
1986 22978 25878 7145 7145
1987 27776 30199 6856 6856
1988 30655 33286 7034 7034
1989 31441 35538 6778 6996
1990 28653 34005 7137 8284
1991 24880 26858 7687 10316
1992 25290 27705 6773 10890
1993 24840 30892 6968 10904
1994 23517 28260 6719 9653
1995 21777 25552 7004 9026
1996 21252 27424 7180 8196
1997 21708 31266 7353 7237
1998 26305 31624 5847 5315
1999 24294 24826 3199 3251
2000 7475 10140 814 1461
111—A—iS
-------
FIGURE Ill—A-i
DIRECT CONSTRUCTION MANPOWER
OHIO RIVER BASIN
1976 — 2000
1
I
,z.._ •-
I
I
‘I
I
/
-S
e ,. • . —.# j_ • . . • • . • •
• 1 1• •N1 • •
‘1
0 ’
.
r
• —
• r,_
I.— ’
C’—
I—
.c.
N-
C
• p _.• • •
‘0 P- — t -,, ,‘ - u o r— o o — r , i -, .0 r 0’
r. v. r- ,-. u - u 0’ 0’ 0’ o 0 0’ 0’ 0’ 0’ 0’
0’ 0’ 0’ a’ a’ o a’ a’ a’ a’ a’ os 0’ 0’ 0’ 0’ (.1’ 0’ 0’ 0’ 0’ 0’ 0’ C U
,- I- t- e- e - y- I- 1- r r 1 e 1 - e e r e e r flJ
• S S S • S S S S S. S S. S I • S S S S S S S S
III—A—16
FrY — NUCLEAR — — —
FTP — COAL
BOM — 80/20 — • —
BOM — 50/50
/
/
/
‘I.,
-1
-a•
I
I
1?
I
I
I
I
•
I
-4
/
‘ 0
S
-------
2.3.2 DIbEC’! CONSTRUCTION BY STATE PORTION
what are the implications ot the scenarios for direct
construction by state portion? This is a very important
question because wide swings and oscillations in employment
in the various subregions are undesirable. Unemployment,
which is not without its costs to state governments as well
as their citizenry, would fluctuate wildly with substantial
employment oscillation. Tables III—A—2 and III—A—3 divide
direct—construction employment by state portion for the BOM
scenarios. These tables show that no state is without
considerable tluctuations in construction employment.
Fluctuations are, however, less pronounced for Illinois.
For Ohio, they are undesirably wide. Employment in the
l98 —9ø period is substantially above that of surroundina
years, essentially double. Indiana and Kentucky employment
shows less mronounced swinos at lower emmloyment levels.
These tables also show that employment in Ohio is the
principle factor behind the accelerated qrowth in employment
in the BUM scenarios.
The airect construction requirements are surprisingly
low. Upward revisions of about 15—20 percent are probable
once new plant construction periods are specified. (1) But
even with such revisions, the numbers are not as large as
one might expect, a priori. Given the type of manpower
involved, however, the BUM numbers could easily exceed
available supplies. Nevertheless, there are other
efficiencies that can come into play when actual plant
construction takes place. For example, interarea
cooperation in the timing of plant construction can make
more etficient use of available supplies. Furthermore,
plants being constructed within reasonable proximity can be
phased so as to keep point—in—time reouirements at a minimal
level. These types of efficiencies cannot be programmed
into the Projections until the extent of cooperation and
coordination of plans is known. The projections as they
stand are pure products of the specified construction time-
phasing developed by Gordon and Martin.
(1) Dr. Schriver has offered to re—run the construction
projections at no charoe once their modelinc effort is
complete. They expect to have the new data available during
the summer of 1977.
Ill—A— F ?
-------
Table III—A—2
Ohio River Basin
Employment by State Portion
Direct Construction Employment
BOM 80/20
Year Illinois Indiana Kentucky Ohio ORBS
1976 5239 1971 1040 2359 10610
1977 5784 2104 1235 2187 11312
1978 4489 2251 1240 1613 9595
1979 2832 2756 1579 1127 8295
1980 2182 3103 1436 788 7510
1981 2746 3371 1219 1023 8361
1982 2755 3744 2203 2041 10744
1983 5171 6478 4593 5342 20225
1984 4335 8012 5953 8235 26760
1985 4186 5190 4811 7795 21915
1986 3819 4144 4461 10554 22978
1987 2643 6746 2921 15465 27775
1988 4015 8068 3462 15109 30654
1989 4459 6972 6641 13368 31440
1990 3690 4930 8012 12020 28652
1991 4430 4261 5766 10423 24879
1992 6273 4588 4643 9786 25289
1993 6913 5496 5408 7023 24839
1994 6719 5577 5557 5664 23516
1995 5195 4087 4544 7951 21776
1996 4872 4306 2479 9595 21251
1997 3878 5233 3905 8692 21707
1998 5792 5850 7594 7069 26304
1999 6175 4664 8106 5349 24293
2000 1575 1604 2377 1919 7475
III—A—18
-------
Table Il1—A—3
Direct Construction En ployment
BOM 50/50
Year Illinois Indiana Kentucky Ohio ORBS
1976 5239 1971 1040 2359 10610
1977 5784 2104 1235 2187 11312
1978 4489 2251 1240 1613 9594
1979 2832 2756 1579 1127 8295
1980 2182 3103 1436 788 7510
1981 2746 3371 1219 1023 8143
1982 3011 3782 2061 2951 7655
1983 3937 6148 3364 6956 6818
1984 4567 7489 4666 10643 27566
1985 5110 5076 5503 10460 26150
1986 4658 3447 5757 12015 25877
1987 4350 4182 5207 16459 30198
1988 5081 5706 5544 16987 33285
1989 5450 6972 6988 16127 35537
1990 4703 7246 7500 14555 34004
1991 3915 6696 6434 9812 26857
1992 6054 6953 6520 8178 27705
1993 6355 7274 7884 9379 30892
1994 6609 6777 6998 7876 28260
1995 7031 5501 5194 7826 25552
1996 7569 6334 4717 8804 27424
1997 8278 7602 6647 8739 31266
1998 7732 7368 8728 7796 31624
1999 6182 5638 7280 5726 24826
2000 2578 1604 2721 3237 10140
III—A—19
-------
2.3.3 OCCUPATION DETAIL BY SCENARIO
Tables III—A—4 to III—A—7 present employment totals for
the ORB region for nine of the twenty—eight occupatons
specified in the direct construction employment projections.
The nine occupations are as follows:
1. Boilermakers
2. Boilermaker welders
3. Carpenters
4. Electricians
5. Iron workers—structure
6. Iron workers—reinforce
7. Laborers
8. Pipefitters
9. Pipefitter welders
These nine categories generally exhibit the highest manpower
requirements on each scenario. By studying these
requirements, we can pinpoint differences between scenarios
and make note of substantial variations over time. All
projected employment levels are for June of the respective
years.
The manpower trends for the nine high—impact categories
generally follow the trends for the totals. Requirements
for electricians are generally the highest, with pipefitters
running a close second. In fact, for several years of the
FTF nuclear scenario, pipefitter requirements are slightly
more than electricians. The two categories of welders
generally show low requirements and are essentially equal.
However, for FTF nuclear, the later years show pipefitter
welder requirements two to three times higher than
boilermaker welders. Marked shifts in the proportion of
manpower requirements accounted for by each category are
rare. Thus there is relative stability in the share of
manpower reauirements. Between years, however, there is
substantial variation. Manpower requirements more than
double for several of the categories under the BOM 80/20
scenarios between 1982 and 1983. For the BOM 50/50, such
dramatic crianges are less frequent, but sometimes more
pronounced. Boilermakers requirements, for example, rise by
357 percent between 1983 and 1984 and then drop to 53
percent of the 1984 level by 1986.
Ill—A— 20
-------
lable III—A—4
Year
1
Constuctiofl [ sOot Requirements
Selected Occuqations
SON 88/20
3 4
2
6
7
B
9
1976
753.5
378.2
1093.9
1529.9
1900.1
625.5
620.0
410.5
351.6
1434.1
1349.2
1482.6
1717.3
551.6
1977
829.6
415.7
958.6
482.5
245.6
1215.7
1544.6
480.4
1978
641.3
321.1
824.3
442.6
324.9
1110.0
1236.9
337.4
1979
501.9
251.9
830.0
488.4
309.9
1086.7
1041.5
330.4
1980
469.3
234.0
912.0
1034.2
338.9
4b4.1
1095.0
1269.5
387.1
1981
455.8
227.0
954.0
791.5
1150.6
25u2.8
1566.5
437.0
1982
653.0
311.7
2195.2
4811.1
1878.7
1989.8
5181.7
4140.0
1256.8
1983
2594.1
1281.1
4361.7
2257.9
1682.7
6654.5
3708.6
2530.1
1984
4393.7
2193.4
5169.1
831/.6
8951.5
2131.0
1757.7
6522.1
7908.5
2568.8
1985
3099.1
1534.6
4711.3
1824.8
1095.0
993.2
3128.0
3400.0
1089.0
1986
1768.0
878.0
2370.0
4786.0
1262.0
1857.0
3545.0
4293.0
1483.0
19b7
229b.0
1143.0
1342.0
1093.0
3674.8
4987.0
1608.0
1988
2564.0
1274.1)
2592.0
1308.0
1063.0
3673.0
5060.0
1663.0
1989
2772.0
1383.8
2588.0
5687.9
1215.0
914.8
3469.0
4471.0
1464.0
1998
2507.0
1251.0
2380.0
1131.0
909.0
2975.0
3725.0
1222.0
1991
2287.0
1097.0
2048.0
4630.0
1066.8
853.8
2900.0
3950.0
1293.0
1992
2388.0
1190.0
2012.0
4€07. )
1123.0
915.0
2941.8
3687.0
1209.0
1993
2385.0
1148.0
2086.0
1014.0
797.1)
2792.0
3476.0
1139.0
1994
2275.0
1135.0
1994.0
4166.8
976.0
888.8
2756.0
3074.0
1803.0
1995
1906.0
947.0
2044.8
982.0
700.8
2755.0
3176.0
1024.0
1996
1817.0
907.0
2050.0
931.0
875.0
3806.0
3275.0
1047.0
1997
1548.0
767.0
2176.8
1316.0
1820.0
2978.0
4176.8
1397.0
1998
2346.8
1165.0
2170.0
5050.8
813.0
271.0
2329.0
4688.0
1546.0
1999
2437.0
1229.8
1402.0
4637.0
99.0
944.0
1296.0
430.0
1. Boilermakers
2. Soilermaker 8elders
3. Carpenters
4. tlectricians
Iron Sorkers Construction
6. Iron rorkers Ocinto
7. laborerS
8. PipetitterS
9. Pipetitters 8eIders
-------
Table IiI—A—5
2. Boilermaker Welders
3. Carpenters
4. Llectricians
5. Iron Workers Construction
6. Iron Workers Reinto
7. Laborers
8. Pioefitters
9. PipeUtters Welders
Year
1
2
Co stuctjon Labor LeouirementS
ROW 50/50
3 4 5
6
8
9
‘ —I
1976
753.5
378.2
1093.9
1529.9
625.5
410.5
1434.1
1482.6
474.7
1977
829.6
415.7
958.6
1 00.1
620.0
351.6
1349.2
1717.3
551.6
1978
641.3
321.1
824.3
1575.9
482.5
245.8
1215.7
1544.6
460.4
1979
1980
501.9
469.3
251.9
234.0
830.0
912.0
1303.7
1034.2
442.6
480.4
324.9
309.9
1110.0
1086.7
1236.9
1041.5
337.4
336.4
1981
455.0
227.0
954.0
1309.7
330.9
484.1
1168.0
1269.5
387.1
1982
653.0
311.7
2195.2
1811.8
791.5
1158.6
2582.8
1566.8
437.0
1983
2594.1
1281.1
4361.7
4811.1
1878.7
1989.8
5181.7
4140.0
1258.0
1964
4393.7
2193.4
5169.7
8317.6
2257.9
1862.7
6694.5
3706.6
2530.1
1985
3099.1
1534.6
4711.3
8951.5
2131.0
1757.7
6522.1
7906.5
2568.8
1986
1063.0
531.0
2890.0
4168.0/
1168.0
996.0
3856.0
4721.0
1504.0
1967
1489.0
736.0
3350.0
4728.0
1468.0
1287.0
4482.0
5038.0
1653.0
1988
2095.0
1039.0
3184.0
5912.9
1474.0
1165.0
4393.0
5844.9
1903.0
1989
2274.0
1134.0
3346.0
6183.9
1595.0
1285.0
4602.0
6229.9
2048.0
1990
2168.0
1081.0
3268.0
5683.9
1489.0
1133.0
4562.0
5792.9
1903.0
1991
1401.0
698.0
2806.0
4599.0
1230.0
925.0
3879.0
4572.0
1470.0
1992
1501.0
742.0
2832.0
4747.0
1256.0
1121.0
3845.0
4761.0
1561.0
1993
2060.0
1025.0
2770.0
5554.9
1404.0
1032.0
3879.0
5505.0
1807.0
1994
1781.0
893.0
2688.0
4689.0
1180.0
888.0
3758.0
4993.0
1637.0
1995
1996
1176.8
1494.0
575.0/
746.i
3072.0
3406.0
3998.0
4186.0
1225.0
1378.0
1282.0
1117.0
3977.0
4287.0
3820.0
4425.0
1238.0
1388.0
1997
1504.0
748.0
3394.0
5153.0
1398.0
1144.0
4594.0
5470.9
1801.0
1998
1825.0
904.0
2290.0
6559.9
1407.0
796.0
3605.0
6337.9
2114.0
1999
1632.0
828.0
1360.0
4833.0
831.0
277.0
2449.0
5644.0
1889.0
2000
198.0
99.0
564.0
1845.0
423.0
141.0
1311.0
2094.0
705.0
1.
Boilermakers
-------
Table 11 l—A—6
2. Loi1 cniaker elders
3. Caroenters
4. blectricians
5. Icon workers
6. Icon i orKers
7. Laborers
8. Pipetitters
9. Pio titters i.elders
Year
1
Constuction Lomor hoqu i cements
Selected Uccuc3tl005
ET8coa l
3
2
4 5 6 7
6
9
( j
1976
482.6
202.4
281.3
745.3
242.3
83 .
437.1)
674.5
225.3
1977
189.6
96.2
154.0
502.1
101.5
60.1
212.8
376.3
120.8
1978
106.4
53.2
101.3
149.7
85.2
50.6
135.3
141.4
43.5
1979
138.1
69.4
120.8
248.5
96.0
5b.6
162.4
211.1
66.0
1980
132.2
66.4
113.5
231.9
92.3
50.7
136.9
21)2.7
64.3
1981
127.2
64.5
160.0
246.0
89.6
70.7
208.9
211.8
63.3
1982
112.6
56.4
298.1
242.2
126.2
101.2
335.3
233.8
68.1
1983
127.8
64.3
486.2
347.4
185.0
164.2
529.4
364.0
1.18.9
1984
232.5
116.9
646.8
646.0
307.3
242.7
735.2
629.3
lSo.9
1985
340.2
170.3
724.6
977.7
391.1)
242.7
885.9
955.7
306.2
1986
373.3
187.9
688.7
1177.9
385.3
234.6
934.3
1144.3
343.2
1987
386.9
193.6
654.7
1105.b
404.4
229.8
888.6
1054.1)
714 .
1988
461.2
230.7
647.5
1189.9
405.9
259.3
871.9
1884.5
321 .
1989
485.0
243.0
638.0
1079.8
404.2
264.7
884.9
1017.3
380.0
1990
543.4
270.4
973.7
1188.7
494.3
410.0
1160.7
1043.6
323.9
1991
689.2
340.3
706.3
3180.1
442.9
300.9
915.4
1132.3
405.7
1992
519.0
260.9
537.2
1110.5
422.6
196.9
771.7
982.3
317.1
1993
527.1
265.0
549.9
1198.3
400.5
252.6
746.5
1009.5
316.0
1994
239.8
279.1)
542.7
997.7
431.8
557.4
784.0
963.1
279.2
1995
613.8
308.4
556.2
1116.0
436.8
265.2
745.6
945.0
294.6
1996
644.4
323.4
577.2
1107.0
465.0
274.8
779.4
963.0
301.2
1957
675.0
335.0
577.2
1196.4
451.8
270.0
756.0
1026.6
324.0
1998
545.4
274.0
393.0
1008.6
338.6
159.6
572.4
677.2
266.2
1999
275.4
139.2
180.6
633.0
140.4
48.6
281.4
519.0
172.8
2000
61.2
31.2
39.6
186.0
24.0
8.4
61.2
13b.0
45.6
1. boilorcakers
Const ructlon
kke cnto
-------
‘Isbie iII—A—7
1. boilermakerS
2. boilermaker t e1der3
3. Carpentero
4. blectriciamme
5. Iron workers
6. Iron orkers
7. Laborers
8. Pipetitters
Construction Labor becuirementS
Selected Occupations
FTbnuclear
Year 1 2
3 4 5
6
7
8
9
1976
402.6
202.4
281.3
745.3
242.3
83.6
437.0
674.5
225.3
1977
189.6
96.2
354.6
502.1
1 o1.5
60.1
212.8
376.3
128.0
1978
106.4
53.2
101.3
149.7
85.2
6
135.3
141.4
43.5
1979
138.1
69.4
120.8
248.5
96.0
58.6
162.4
211.1
66.6
1980
132.2
66.4
113.5
231.9
92.3
50.7
156.9
202.7
64.3
1981
127.2
64.5
160.0
246. b
89.6
70.7
208.9
211.0
63.3
1982
112.6
56.4
298.1
242.2
126.2
101.2
339.3
233.8
68.1
1983
127.8
64.3
486.2
347.4
185 .u
164.2
529.4
364.0
108.9
1984
232.5
116.9
646.8
646.0
387.3
242.7
735.2
629.3
190.9
1985
340.2
170.3
724.6
977.7
391.0
242.7
889.9
955.7
306.2
1986
373.3
187.9
686.7
1177.9
385.3
234.6
934.3
1144.3
343.2
1987
386.9
193.6
654.7
1185.8
404.4
229.8
888.6
1054.0
314.8
1988
461.2
230.7
647.5
1109.9
405.9
259.3
871.9
1684.5
321.8
1989
485.0
243.0
638.0
1079.8
404.2
264.7
884.9
1017.3
380.0
1990
543.4
270.4
973.7
1188.7
494.3
416.0
1160.7
1043.6
323.9
1991
689.2
340.3
1270.5
1382.9
602.5
511.9
1518.4
1384.5
405.7
1992
615.8
307.3
1269.2
1646.7
610.8
455.1
1596.5
1593.7
515.5
1993
443.9
221.4
1166.9
1930.5
502.7
360.8
1542.3
1919.3
621.6
1994
271.4
225.0
1065.9
1594.5
423.6
330.0
1415.6
1900.7
596.0
1995
222.0
109.0
1004.0
1480.0
413.0
330.o
1373.0
1760.8
576.8
1996
209.0
105.0
894.0
1351.0
379.0
251.0
1237.0
1675.0
543.0
197
178.0
89.0
678.0
1276.0
312.0
186.0
1013.0
1559.0
521.0
1998
125.6
62.0
324.0
1127.0
69.0
.
687.0
1316.0
439.0
725.0
1999
69.0
36.0
170.0
615.0
114.0
38.0
347.0
872.0
292.0
2000
18.0
9.0
84.0
216.0
63.0
21.0
192.0
336.0
114.0
Construct ion
be into
9. Pipetitters e1der3
-------
2.3.4 T UL.TI LIF EFFECTS
Tables I l l—A—S and III—A— show the total emoloym.ent
impacts tor state cortions under the EU 8 /2 and EC 5 /5S
scenarios. Service sector emcloyirent induced by the
increased construction activity is added to direct
construction reauirements to mroduce the projected values.
The mu1ti liers for e ch state portion are the arithmetic
means of the county multipliers where construction is to
take place. 8GM multipliers per state portion are as
follows:
EO 1 ulti liers
Illino Is 2.45
Indiana 2.31
Kentucky 2.17
Ohio 2.f’5
8 GM ES/2( reauirei.ent totals reach a oeak level of
77,000 in 1SE:9; for EOI 50/50 the ceak level is 87,00 1, also
in 1989.
III—i\—25
-------
1a D1e 1 11—A—b
uhio Fdver basin
Employment by State Portion
Construction Employment and Cor p1ex I iu1tip1ier
bOi i 80/26
Year
Illinois Indiana Kentucky Ohio
0 E b S
1976
12835
4554
2258
6251
25899
1977
14172
4866
2680
5797
27511
178
16999
5206
2692
4275
23167
1979
6939
6366
3426
2987
19721
1986
5347
7168
3116
2096
17722
1981
6728
7768
2646
27 13
19877
1962
6751
6648
4781
5408
25591
1983
12671
14964
9967
14157
51766
1984
10622
18567
12918
21822
63871
1985
10255
11996
10439
2 o658
53345
1986
9356
9572
9680
27968
56577
1967
6475
15563
6338
40984
69381
1988
9836
18637
7512
40 i41
76 27
1989
10924
16165
14416
35427
76868
190
9046
11388
17386
3155
69676
1991
10653
9842
12512
27626
60829
1992
15368
Li598
10075
25932
61999
1993
16936
12695
11735
1610
59978
19 4
16461
12882
12058
15009
56412
1 ’ 5
12/2/
9440
9860
21670
53099
1996
11936
9946
5379
25426
52689
1997
9501
12 ib8
8473
23 ’33
53 E
J9 c
141
13513
16478
15
1 9
15 2k
1 ñ3
17S
‘1ie
i6f7
2000
3858
3705
5156
5085
17867
III—A—26
-------
Table III—A—9
c hio Piver Easin
Employment by State Portion
Construction E.niployment and Complex Multiplier
EOM 50/50
i ea r
Ill inois
inc iana
Kentucky
(jhio
1976
12837
4554
2256
6251
25901
1977
14172
4860
2688
5797
2 /511
1978
10999
5200
2692
4275
23167
1979
6939
6368
3426
2967
19721
1980
5347
7168
3116
2068
17720
1981
6728
7788
2646
2713
19877
1982
7379
8736
4473
7820
28409
1983
9646
14201
7300
18434
49582
1984
11191
17299
10125
28733
67350
1985
12519
11727
11941
27721
63909
1986
11412
7962
12492
31842
63709
1987
1 1 (1657
9660
11299
43618
75235
1988
12448
13180
12030
45017
82677
1989
13352
16105
15163
42738
87360
1990
11522
16738
16275
38573
83108
1991
9591
15467
13961
26004
1992
14832
16061
14148
21671
66713
1993
15569
168k;2
17108
24854
74335
1994
16192
15654
15185
20871
1995
17225
12707
11270
20738
61943
196
18544
14631
10235
23330
66742
1997
20281
17560
14423
23158
75424
1998
1b943
17020
18939
20659
75562
1999
15145
13023
15797
15173
24503
2i. ø6
6316
37 5
59 4
8578
III — A —27
-------
2.4 OPERATiONS AND MAINTENANCE PERSONNEL
2.4.1 DIRECT OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE REQUIREMENTS
Through a telephone survey of industry representatives,
we arrived at an average of 117 people in operations and
maintenance employment per megawatt of installed capacity.
This figure was used for all plants and was riot adjusted for
productivity changes. Productivity of production workers in
gas and electric utilities has expanded by 3 percent
annually from 1969to l974.(2) The later years of this
period, however, showed very little change. Because the 117
figure is conservative relative to some published estimates
and because other types of manpower may be required for
nuclear facilities in the future (guards and watchmen), we
are somewhat confident in usina a constant level. We also
did not adjust for plant removals in the projections. Very
few plants are taken off—line in the scenarios and, in
general, these plants are very small. S’ e believe that such
an adjustment would result in only slightly lower
projections, probably less than 2 percent.
Tables III—A—lø and Ill—A—li show the projected trends
for the BOM and FTF scenarios. (3) By 2000, BOM operations
and maintenance requirements rise to 25.5 thousand, slightly
more than double the FTF level. The gradient of employment
increase for this type of manpower is generally smooth.
Lacking in the severe changes that accompany construction
requirements, these requirement increases should be easier
to satisfy, provided sufficient manpower supplies exist.
2.4.2 MULTIPLIER EFFECTS
For the state portions, the same multipliers that
apolied to the construction requirements are used. FTF
multipliers are as follows:
(2) U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Productivity Indexes for Selected Inaustries,
1975, Bulletin 1890, Washington, D.C., 1976.
(3) Because the 117 0 & M level is based on installed
MWe capacity, separate projections are not necessary for
different coal and nuclear mixes.
I II—A—28
-------
FTF Multipliers
Illinois 2.58
Indiana 2.20
Kentucky 2.35
Ohio 2.54
Tables III—A—12 and III—A—13 show total requirements
generated by ooeratioris and maintenance employment. The
total ORE level rises to 62 thousand under the BOM scenarios
and 29 thousand under the FTF scenarios.
III—A—29
-------
Table III—A—l0
Ohio River Basin
Employment by State Portion
Operations and Maintenance Employment
Bureau of Mines Scenario
Year Illinois Indiana Kentucky Ohio ORES
1976 117 234 117 117 585
1977 585 351 351 351 1638
1978 1170 468 351 585 2574
1979 1521 819 585 702 3627
1980 1521 819 702 819 3861
1981 1989 1053 819 936 479 ’
1982 1989 1287 936 936 5148
1983 2223 1404 936 1053 5616
1984 2574 1638 1287 1170 6669
1985 2691 2223 1638 1638 8190
1986 2925 2457 1755 1872 9009
1987 3159 2574 1989 2106 9828
1988 3159 2808 2223 2691 10881
1989 3276 3159 2223 3510 12168
1990 3627 3627 2457 4095 13806
1991 3744 3744 2925 4797 15210
1992 3861 3861 3159 5148 16029
1993 4212 4095 3393 5733 17433
1994 4446 4329 3627 6084 18486
1995 4914 4680 3861 6201 19656
1996 5031 4797 4212 6435 20475
1997 5382 4914 4212 6903 21411
1998 5499 5031 4563 7371 22230
1999 5616 5265 4680 7488 22815
2000 6201 5733 5499 8073 25506
III—A—30
-------
lable 111—A—il
Ohio River Basin
Employirient by State Portion
Operations and Maintenance Employment
Ford Technical Fix
ear
Illinois Indiana Kentucky Ohio OPBS
1976
234
234
234
117
819
1977
468
351
468
351
1638
1978
468
351
468
351
1638
1979
585
351
585
351
1872
1980
585
351
585
468
1989
1981
585
468
585
468
2106
1982
585
468
702
468
2223
1983
702
468
702
585
2457
1984
702
585
702
585
2574
1985
702
702
702
585
2691
1986
936
819
819
585
3159
1987
1053
819
936
819
3627
1988
1404
936
936
936
4212
1989
1521
1053
1170
936
4680
1990
1638
1521
1404
936
5499
1991
1872
1521
1404
1170
5967
1992
1872
1638
1521
1287
6318
1993
2340
1755
1755
1287
7137
1994
2574
1989
1872
1287
7722
1995
2574
2223
2106
1638
8541
1996
2574
2340
2223
1989
9126
1997
2691
2574
2340
2457
10062
1998
2691
2691
2457
3042
10881
1999
2691
2808
2574
3510
11583
2000
2691
2925
2808
3744
12168
III—A—31
-------
Table III—A—12
Operations and Maintenance
Total Employment with Complex Multiplier
BOM Scenarios
Year Illinois Indiana Kentucky Ohio ORBS
1976 286 540 253 310 1391
1977 1433 810 761 930 3935
1978 2866 1081 761 1550 6259
1979 3726 1891 1269 1860 8748
1980 3726 1891 1523 2170 9312
1981 4873 2432 1777 2480 11563
1982 4873 2972 2031 2480 12357
1983 5446 3243 2031 2790 13511
1984 6306 3783 2792 3100 15983
1985 6592 5135 3554 4340 19623
1986 7166 5675 3808 4960 21611
1987 7739 5945 4316 5580 23582
1988 7739 6486 4823 7131 26181
1989 8026 7297 4823 9301 29448
1990 8886 8378 5331 10851 33447
1991 9172 8648 6347 12712 36880
1992 9459 8918 6855 13642 38875
1993 10319 9459 7362 15192 42334
1994 10892 9999 7870 16122 44885
1995 12039 10810 8378 16432 47661
1996 12325 11081 9140 17052 49599
1997 13185 11351 9140 18292 51970
1998 13472 11621 9901 19533 54529
1999 13759 12162 10155 19843 55920
2000 15192 13243 11932 21393 61761
111—A— 32
-------
Table III—A—13
Operations and Maintenance
Total Employment with Complex Multiplier
FTF Scenarios
Year
Illinois Indiana Kentucky Ohio
OF BS
1976
573
540
507
310
1931
1977
1146
810
1015
930
3903
1978
1146
810
1015
930
3903
1979
1433
810
1269
930
4443
1980
1433
810
1269
1240
4733
1981
1433
1081
1269
1240
5023
1982
1433
lc 8l
1523
1240
5277
1983
1719
1081
1523
1550
5874
1984
1719
1351
1523
1550
6144
1985
1719
1621
1523
1550
6415
1986
2293
1891
1777
1550
7512
1987
2579
1891
2031
2170
8673
1988
3439
2162
2031
2480
10113
1989
3726
2432
2538
2480
11178
1990
4013
3513
3046
2480
13053
1991
4586
3513
3046
3100
14247
1992
4586
3783
3300
3410
15081
1993
5733
4054
3808
3410
17005
1994
6306
4594
4062
3410
18373
1995
6306
5135
4570
4340
20352
1996
6306
5405
4823
5270
21806
1997
6592
5945
5077
6511
24127
1998
6592
6216
5331
8061
26202
1999
6592
6486
5585
9301
27966
2000
6592
6756
6093
9921
29364
II I—A—33
-------
2.5 COAL—MINING MANPOWER
2.5.1 INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this task is to estimate the additional
number of coal workers needed under three ORE scenarios, the
BOM 80—20, the BOM 50—50, and the FTF coal scenario. In
order to estimate additional coal employment demand from
electrical energy capacity projections, it is necessary to
make several assumptions. The first major assumption is
that electrical energy generation in the ORE is a constant
percentage of capacity equal to the national rate in
1975. (4) This assumption is rather tenuous for two reasons.
First, there are some reajonal differences in the
generation—to—capacity ratio. In 1975, generation of
conventional steam facilities was 45 percent of capacity in
the East North Central region (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois,
?lichigan, and Wisconsin) while only 42 percent
nationally. (5) National figures are used for the ORE on the
assumption that regional differences will tend to disappear.
Second, percentage utilization has decreased considerably
over the last two decades. Even since 1970 the ratio has
declined by 10 percentaqe points from 52 percent. (6) e do
not attempt to adjust for trends in capacity utilization
since such projections, yield patently ridiculous estimates
when projected to 2000. We assume instead that the ratio
will stabilize at approximately current levels.
The second major assumption is that all additional coal
needed in the ORB will come from the ORE. Net imports for
coal will remain at present levels. This could be a source
of error due to the fact that the ORB contains less
desirable high—sulfur coal. If desulfurization remains
(4) This percentage is for conventional steam plants,
most of which are coal fired. This is the smallest
breakdown available in the Edison Electric Institute,
Statistical Yearbook of the Electric Utility Industry for
1975, No. 43, Publication No. 76—51, October, 1976.
Ibid. Nuirbers are calculated from data in Tables
45 and 155.
(6) Ibid. Also Edison Electric Institute, Statistical
Yearbook ot the Electric Uti1i y Indust y for 1971, 1973.
ab1es 45, 155. —— —
III—A—34
-------
costly, low—sulfur western coal may be imported to the ORB.
If so, our coal employment demand estimates for the ORB will
be overstated.
Another basic assumption is that labor productivity for
coal in the ORB will remain at 1975—76 levels. Although
coal labor productivity rose dramatically from 1940—60, it
recently has begun to decrease somewhat.
Since productivity in coal mining differs dramatically
by type of mine, it is also assumed that the mix of surface
and underground mining output, currently 60 and 40 percent,
in the ORB will remain constant. In the following
discussion on methodology, the two types of xrininq are
separated so that it is possible to change the constant mix
assumption. One set of estimates is made assurnina all
additional coal comes from surface mines; another assuming
that all coal above present demand comes from underground
mines. By weighting these two sets of estimates
oroportionately, one set of estimates can be made for any
surface—to—underground mine ratio.
Another assumption is that coal—fired generating plant
efficiency will remain tne same. Presently coal—fired
facilities transfer 38 percent of the energy in the coal to
electric energy.
2.5.2 METHOCOLOGY
The first step in the coal labor estimation procedure
is to sum up the additional coal—fired aeneratinq plant
capacity on line by 1985 and on line between 1985 to 2000
for each of the eneroy conversion scenarios. (7) These
capacity figures are also broken down by state so that labor
impacts can be separated by state portion.
The second step in the procedure is to estimate the
amount of energy these plants will generate per annum. This
is done by taking 42 percent of the megawatt—per—hour
capacity times the number of hours per year. (8) This is done
(7) BOM, FTF t emoranda.
( 3) The 42 percent is calculated from tables 45, 155
EEl, Stat. Yearbook for EUI 1975 , No. 43, Publication No.
70—11. October, l9 6. See footnote 3.
I II—A—35
-------
for each state oortion.
From the amount of additional electrical energy
produced per year, the number of tons of coal annually
needed to produce that energy can be calculated. This is
done by calculating a megawatt—hours per ton of coal
constant and multiplying it by the number of megawatt hours
per year calculated in the second step. The megawatt—hours
per ton of coal constant is calculated by multiplying the
energy content of coal by .38, the energy conversion
efficiency factor. (9)
The next step is to estimate coal labor requirements
from coal production for each state portion. In order to do
this, data on annual coal output and employment for both
surface and underground mines was obtained from the four ORB
states for 1975—76. (10) From these data, labor requirements
per ton—of—coal per year are calculated for both surface and
underground mines. (11) Future coal labor demand generated by
each state is then calculated by multiplying the additonal
per year tonnage needed in each state portion under each
energy conversion scenario by either the surface or
underground manpower per ton—of—coal per year ratio. This
yields two sets of estimates, one based on the assumption
that all coal is surface mined and one assuming additional
(9) The energy content of bituminous coal (the type
located in the ORB) is 26,200,000 Btu/ton. (Center for
Advanced Computation, Technical Memo No. 39). The number of
Btu’s per MW hour is 3,412,000. This gives coal a potential
for 7.68 MW hr./ton. Given a 38 percent efficiency of
coal—fired plants, the MW hr./ton of coal is .38 x 7.68, or
2.92. See Footnote 6.
These data were obtained from the Illinois
Department of Mines and Minerals, Annual Coal, Oil, Gas
Report—1976; the Bureau of Mines and Mining—State of
Indiana, Annual Report; the Kentucky Department of Mines and
Minerals; and the Department of Industrial Relations,
Division of Mines, State of Ohio, 1975 Ohio Division of
Mines Report . Indiana did not have data on employment in
surf c mines. Therefore, Indiana s data was omitted in the
calculations of the employment per ton for surface mines in
the ORB.
(11) Surface mining requires 230 workers per million
ton of coal per year in the ORB, while the same figure for
underground mining is 419.
III—A—36
-------
coal is only from underground mines. These two sets of
estimates for each scenario can then be weighted according
to any desired combination of surface and underground mines
to produce one set of coal labor demand estimates.
2.5.3 PROJECTION IESULTS
Tables III—A—14, III—A—l5, and III—A—16 detail the coal
manpower requirements qenerated through increased electrical
capacity for three scenarios: BOM 80/20, BOM 50/50, ana the
FTF coal scenario. Additional coal—mining manpower is, of
course, largest for the BO 80/20 scenario. By Table III—
A—l4, we see that by year 2000, 43,400 new workers would be
needed if all the coal came from surface mines; 79,000, if
from underaround; and 57,600, if a 60/40 ratio is assumed.
In 1975, an estimated 87,000 workers were employed in coal
mining in the four—state region. Thus, assuming that the
60/40 ratio prevails, mining employment would have to grow
by 66 percent. New labor requirements drop considerably
under the alternate scenarios. with FTF coal, for example,
15,000 new workers would be required, again assuming the
60/40 ratio of strip to underoround mining.
The analysis has assumed that coal—miner productivity
will remain at current levels, rather than continuing its
downward slide. Futhermore, we have assumed that the
employment impact will occur in the ORE region. Actually,
it may be quite difficult for the ORB to produce all the new
coal needed. e note also that the increase in coal—miner
manpower requirements exceeds peak construction requirements
for most scenarios. The exception is FTF nuclear, where
projected employment reaches a peak level of 8,900. Careful
planning will be required to assure that the manpower
necessary to produce the new coal needed for energy
facilities will he vailabl .
II I—P—3
-------
Table III—A—14
Changes in Coal Mining Manpower Recuirements
for the Ohio River Basin egion (ORBR)
1985 and 2000
(in Man Years)
BOM 80 Coal/20 Nuclear Scenario
State 2 Surface Underground
Portion 1985 2000 1985 2000
Illinois
1159
8404
2112
15310
Indiana
1668
9493
3038
17291
Kentucky
1191
10175
2169
18534
Ohio
1111
15311
2023
27890
ORBF. Total 5129 43383 9342 79025
Total Requirements Assuniing 60/40 O tput
Mix of Strip/Underground Mining
State Surface Underground Total
Portion 1985 2000 1985 2000 1985 2000
Illinois
695
5042
845
6124
1540
11166
Indiana
1001
5696
1215
6916
2216
1261
KentucKy
715
6105
868
7414
1583
13519
Ohio
667
9187
809
11156
1476
20343
ORBR Total 3078 2603 J 3737 31610 6815 57640
‘Calculations based on plants generating at 42 percent of
capacity tnrouqh the year and based on averages of 230
workers per million tons of coal per year for surface
mining and 419 for underground. 1975 is the base year.
LData by state is not an estimate of manpower recuirements
generated within the state; rather these data are estimated
of indirect coal manpower needed to qenerate electricity
rot eacn state.
The 60/40 ratio is based on 1975 production rates.
I I I — A— 38
-------
Table 111—A—iS
Chanqes in Coal Mining Manpower Requirements
for the Ohio River Basin egion (ORBR)
1985 and 2000
(in Man Years)
BOM 50 Coal/SO Nuclear Scenario
State 2 Surface Underground
Portion 1985 2000 1985 2000
Illinois
1159
5796
2112
10559
Indiana
1668
6595
3038
12012
Kentucky
1191
6118
2169
11143
Ohio
1111
98 5
2023
17860
ORBFr Total 5129 28314 9342 51574
Total Requirements Assuming 60/40 Oytput
Mix of Strip/Underground Mining
State Stripmining Underground riotal
Portion 1985 2000 1985 2000 1985 2000
Illinois
695
3477
845
4224
1540
7701
Indiana
1001
3957
1215
4805
2216
8762
Kentuc cy
715
3671
868
4458
1583
8129
Ohio
667
5883
809
7144
1476
13027
ORBR Total 3078 16988 3737 20631 6815 37619
‘Calculations based on plants generating at 42 percent of
capacity through the year on averages of 230 workers per
million tons of coal per year for surface mining and 419
for underground. 1975 is the base year.
2 Eata by state is not an estimate of manpower requirements
generated within the state. Rather, these data are
estimates of indirect coal manpower needed to generate the
electricity for each state.
The 60/40 ratio is based on 1975 production rates.
111—A—BY
-------
Table III—A—16
Changes in Coal Mining Manpower Requirements
for the Ohio River Basin egion (ORBR)
1985 and 2000
(in Man Years)
Ford Technical Fix Scenario
State Surface Underground
Portion 2 1985 2000 1985 2000
Illinois
507
1692
929
3083
Indiana
904
2724
1647
4962
Kentucky
429
3552
782
6472
Ohio
538
3403
981
6200
ORER Total 2378 11371 4334 20717
Total Pequirements Assuming 60/40 O tput
Mix of Strip/Underground Mining
State Surface Underground Total
Portion 1985 2 )00 1985 2000 1985 2000
Illinois
304
1015
372
1236
676
2251
Indiana
542
1634
659
1985
1201
3619
Kentucky
257
2131
313
2589
570
4720
Ohio
323
2042
392
2480
715
4522
ORBR Total 1426 6822 1734 8290 3160 15112
1 Calculations based on plants generating at 42 Percent ot
capacity throuqh the year and based on averages of 230
workers per million tons ot coal per year for surface
minina and 419 for underground. 1975 is the base year.
1 Data bY state is not an estimate of manpower reauirements
generatea within the state. Rather, these data are
estimates of indirect coal manpower needed to generate the
electricity for each state.
60/40 ratio is based on 1975 production rates.
III—A—40
-------
2.5.4 MULTIPLIE.R EFFEC’IS
Induced service sector employment that will accompany
expanding coal production greatly increases the manpower
impacts. It is difficult to attach regional multipliers to
coal production. Just as we are not able to attribute coal
production to the state portion, we are unable to identify a
single multiplier to use per state portion. Assuming that
coal—producing counties are somewhat homogeneous in service
sector demands, we have constructed a sinqle multiplier
based on the average of the county multipliers of localities
where coal production takes place. The average multiplier
is 2.5. Table III—A—17 shows the time trend of coal—mining
manpower requirements and total reauirements inclusive of
induced service sector employment. Differences between
scenarios are now considerably rnaanified, varying from
144,000 (BOt 80/20) to 38,000 (FTF coal). Un—tabled
FTFnuclear projections are even lower. The time trend of
this scenario is identical to that of its coal counterpart
until 1993. At this point the projected value reaches 8900
and remains constant to the year 2000. The total
requirements projected value is 22,250, from 1993 to 2000,
once induced service sector employment is added. Thus total
requirements generated by the additional coal production
differ by 122,000 workers between the intensive and
extensive scenarios.
2.6 COMPONENT AGGREGATES
The employment impacts of the four types of manpower
considered in this study (construction, operations and
maintenance, coal mining, and induced service sector)
present a rather clear picture of the direction of labor
demands under the four scenarios. Tables III—A—18 and III—
A—19 are very important because they show the combined
impacts for the OF H region. Table Ill—A—iS shows direct
impacts under the alternative scenarios: construction plus
operations ano maintenance, plus coal—mining manpower.
Table III—A—19 adds the respective induced service sector
demands to the direct employment values.
III—A—4l
-------
Table III—A—17
Coal Mining Labor Requirements
Direct and Total
BOM 80/20 BOM 50/50 FTF coal
Year Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total
1976 732 1831 732 1831 848 2120
1977 1811 4526 1811 4526 1926 4815
1978 2667 6666 2667 6666 1926 4815
1979 3551 8877 3551 8877 2154 5384
1980 3798 9495 3798 9495 2343 5859
1981 4782 11955 4782 11955 2551 6377
1982 5244 13111 5244 13111 2741 6853
1983 5760 14401 5760 14401 2925 7312
1984 6816 17041 6816 17041 3001 7502
1985 11433 28582 9507 23769 3161 7902
1986 13743 34358 11433 28582 3765 9412
1987 15668 39171 12203 30507 4219 10549
1988 18749 46872 12973 32432 4764 11911
1989 22214 55536 15668 39171 5401 13503
1990 26065 65162 17594 43984 5856 14641
1991 30300 75751 21059 52648 6486 16216
1992 32611 81527 22599 56498 7435 18589
1993 36461 91153 23754 59386 8584 21461
1994 39542 98854 26k165 65162 9104 22761
1995 43392 108481 28760 71901 10259 25649
1996 46088 115219 29915 74788 11184 27959
1997 48013 120033 31456 78639 12339 30847
1998 50323 125808 32996 82490 13494 33735
1999 51864 129659 34151 85378 14649 36623
2000 57639 144099 37617 94041 15111 37778
III—A—42
-------
Table III—A—18
Scenario Direct Requirements
Year
1976
19,7
1978
19,9
1980
198 1
1982
1
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
B0t4 80/20
11928
14761
14836
15474
15170
17941
21137
31602
40 24 6
41532
45730
53272
60 28 5
€5823
68524
70390
73 30
787 34
81545
84825
87815
9 113 2
99092
99207
90620
B0t4 50/50
11928
14 76 1
14836
15474
15170
177 23
18048
18194
41051
43847
46320
52230
5? 140
63374
€5405
63127
€6333
72079
72811
73968
77814
84133
87084
82026
73263
FTF coal
6025
6022
4700
5573
5801
6278
6973
8396
10343
12262
14069
14702
16010
16859
18492
20140
20526
22689
23545
25804
27490
29754
30222
29431
28093
FTF nuclear
- 6025
6022
4700
5573
5801
€278
6973
8396
10343
12262
14069
14702
16010
17077
19639
22769
24643
26625
26248
26440
26195
26172
25069
23 707
22502
:t I I—A—43
-------
Table III—A—19
Scenario Total Requirements
BOM 50/50 FTF coal FTF nuclei
___ -------
29124 14568 14 568
35974 14649 14649
36093 11459 11459
37347 13561 13562
36527 14157 14156
43395 15312 15313
53878 16979 16978
77495 20459 20460
100375 25152 25153
107302 29784 29785
113903 34165 34166
129325 35766 35764
141291 38998 38997
155981 41036 41562
160541 44916 47683
154554 49012 55355
162087 50014 59946
176055 55281 64777
177952 57348 63849
181505 62902 64314
191130 67091 63766
206033 72718 63773
212582 74046 61210
200439 72309 57994
180307 69107 55073
III—A—44
-------
Direct employment under the OM 80/20 scenario
surpasses the BOf .! 50/50 in year 1987 and maintains levels
that are 8 to 10 thousand higher in the 1990s. Peak level
is reached in 1999 at 99,000 for the former arid in 1998 at
87,000 for the latter. The FTF coal scenario also surpasses
FTF nuclear, but at a later stage and at a lower
differential. The peak level for FTF coal is 30,000 in
1998; FTF nuclear has a relatively constant peak of 26,000
through the niid—1990s.
Adding induced employment greatly expands differentials
between scenarios. Peak employrr ent is 243,000 for BOM
80/20; 213,000 for BOM 50/50; 74,000 for FTF coal; and
65,000 for FTF nuclear. Therefore, almost a three—fold
differential separates the high and low peak employment
levels.
The feasibility of these scenarios has to be examined
in relation to the projected increase in labor supoly.
III—A—45
-------
3. LABOR SUPPLY IN THE BASIN
3.1 INTRODUCTION
There are several facets to the supply of labor.
Population and labor force participation are the primary
elements in supply analysis. Hours of work and reqional,
industrial, arid occupational distributions of suoply
represent topics in higher orders of supply analysis. S e
will concentrate on the population and labor force
participation aspects of supply. The projection literature
is more developed in this area. I esides, hours of work have
tended to stabilize in the last two decades while the supply
literature lacks general theoretical development on such
elements as migration and industrial/occupational mobility.
Labor mobility is the means by which supply adjusts to
changing demands for labor. Because the demand for labor is
seldom stable, the various forms of labor mobility are
volatile. Yesterdays out—migration is today s in—migration
(for example, the Appalachian coal region) . Projections of
mobility, conseauently, have very low reliability.
Patterns of fertility and labor force participation
tend to change gradually over time. These changes can,
nonetheless, be very dramatic. The 1970—75 average
fertility was 2.19 births per woman. In 1976, the rate was
1.76. Female labor force participation has risen from 34
percent in 1950 to 46 percent in 1974, an average of half a
percent per year. The relative stability of fertility and
age/sex/race group labor force oarticipation enables rather
straightforward application of projection technicues.
3.2 POPULATION
Our population projection work was completed in
February, 1977. It was distributed to other ORBES projects
in the form of a CAC document. (1) We performed this
(l) Thomas P. Milke, Robert C. Dauffenbach and Eric
Holshouser, p ation Proj ctions for the Ohio River Basin:
1970 to 2Ol , Center for Advanced Computation, CAC Document
No. 2 4, February, 1977.
III—A—47
-------
population study primarily because we needed age/sex/race
specific projections in order to perform projections of the
labor force. Also, we found that other ORBES population
work had relied on old fertility values that we considered
to be very unlikely to occur in the future. The population
study is attached as Appendix A. Only a brief suir nary of
the study is offered here.
We used the component approach to population
projecting. This approach disaagregates the population into
age, sex, and race groups; applies group specific birth,
death, and migration rates; and interactively generates
projections through use of a computer simulation program.
Because future fertility and miaration rates are unknown, we
provided several sensitivity tests for alternative values in
order to illustrate the relative importance of these
parameters. Assuming that recent levels of fertility,
mortality, and migration continue into the future, our
projections inoicated that the ORB region pooulation will be
21.1 million people in 2000. This estimate is 8.2 percent
below the sum of the county projections reported in Task 1.
In our sensitivity checks, we found that it was
necessary to use a very high fertility level (2.7) , not
experienced for the last ten years, to achieve the 23
million projection obtained from the sum of the state
forecasts. Our results indicate a growth from the 1970 base
population of about 15 percent by 2000 in contrast to the 26
percent qrowth implied by the four—state portion
project i on s.
% e used the average 19 0—75 fertility rate, specific to
the basin, wnich were 2.176 and 2.373 for whites and
nonwhites. It is important to note, however, that the
downward trend in fertility is continuing. The 1974 rate
for the U.S. population was 1.86 in 1974; 1.76 in 1976.
Therefore, we believe that the rates we use produce
population projections that are conservatively high.
Figure III—A—2 shows a graph of the various population
projections using alternative high, medium, and low
fertility levels. The interval we have the qreatest
confidence that the actual year 2000 population will fall
within lies between the low (Series III) and medium (Series
II) projected values. However, we are using the Series II
estimates to produce conservatively high projections of
labor force growth.
III—A—48
-------
i 55 0
1960
.I 970
1975
.L95 )
1985
1990
1995
2@C0
2805
2810
o ) 1 1 1
. 1 . i P• -
c . ( (:
(
-4 —4 -4
HI-4
C D
t 1
it :
14:5 15:5 16:6 17:6 18:7
Figure III—A-2
Actual and Estimated Population
Ohio River Basin 1950-2010
\
\
4
\
\
\
\
\
\4
\
\
\
\
3
\
.3
3
\
2
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4
19:7 28:8 21:8 22:9 23:9 24:8
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2
2
\
\
2
3
I 1I—1\—4 9
-------
3.3 PRuJECIIONS OF THE LABOR FORCE
3.3.1 INTRODUCTION
The composition of the labor—force in the Ohio River
Basin is a function of the population in different age, sex,
and race categories, as well as the propensity of the
members of these different groups to be in the labor force.
In order to project the labor force, we need population
projections for the various age/sex/race qroups and
projections of participation in the labor force for these
groups.
The projection of labor—force participation rates
presents quite a different problem from population
projection. Participation is not as natural as fertility
and mortality, but rather it is determined by social and
economic variables, such as the level of wages, the
availability of work, and the attitudes of the society
toward work and leisure. These relationships are complex
and their quantification is extremely difficult.
Consequently, projections of labor force are subject to
considerable volatility. A clear example of this can be
found in recent Bureau of Labor Statistics labor—force
projections. Changes in the participation rates of women
between 1913 and 1976 have led to an upward revision of
estimated national female labor force by nearly twelve
million for 1990 over earlier estimates. (2) This type of
variation can lead to wide swings in the supply of labor
over a fifteen year projection. The use of labor force
projections should be tempered with the realization that
there is considerable flux in the supply of labor, and that
it is somewhat responsive to the demand for labor,
regardless of historical participation trends.
3.3.2 METHODOLOGY
The approach we have taken here is to utilize the
labor—force projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Office of Manpower Structure and Trends, to compute the
historical difference between national and Ohio Basin
(2) P E’laim, P. Ryscava e, H. Fullerton, and K. Hoyle,
Bureau of Labor Statistics News, September 15, 1976.
Il l—A— S O
-------
experience. Since time series data on Ohio Basin
participation rates are not available for each age and sex
group, we have modified each disaqqregated national rate on
the basis of the experience of the total regional labor
force. That is to say, if the regions population has
participated in the labor market at a rate which is 90
percent of the nation’s rate, then the rate for each age and
sex group has been reduced by 10 percent. We realize that
this may in fact mask the variations within the separate
demographic groups, but the availability of data leaves us
with few alternatives. We do not feel that the assumption
that the basin rate will approach the national rate over
time is justified. Our approach will yield more accurate
totals, although some error will be introduced at the
disaggregated level.
Projected national rates from the BLS can be found in
“New Labor Force Projections to 1990” in the December, 1976,
Monthly Labor Review . These rates refer to civilian labor
T rce on an an ual average basis. For each state portion in
the Ohio River Basin, the rates have been adjusted as
follows:
Illinois 0.917
Indiana 0.978
Kentucky 0.847
Ohio 0.945
These numbers represent the 1970 ratio of the local to the
national rates and are assumed to hold constant through the
projection period. Since the rates in each age and sex
group reflect the national trend, the actual basin labor
force will consist of the difference in the actual
populations of each group as discussed in the population
portion of our work. An additional part of the multiplier
factor corrects for the way in which the regional rates were
calculated. The rates for the basin represent the ratio of
civilian labor force to total population, whereas the
national rates represent the ratio between civilian labor
force and the civilian population. Therefore, the
adjustment tactor contains two parts: (1) an adjustment
for interstate variation in rates of labor—force
participation; and (2) an adjustment for the military
component of the work force.
The allocation of rates on the basis of race presents
some difficulties that are not treated in the BLS projection
study. ¶Qhe BLS does not consider the differences in racial
participation rates since they do not use a racial breakdown
in the census population forecasts. Investigation of the
I II—A—51
-------
white and nonwhite trends in participation over time at the
national level reveal some interesting facts. For females,
nonwhite rates are slightly higher than white rates, but the
two are rapidly converging. Extrapolation of the trends
show that the two rates will intersect in 1982.
Consequently we have used the extrapolated rates for 1980,
and have assumed the two rates will be equal thereafter.
The labor—force participation rates of males shows
markedly different characteristics on the basis of race.
Whereas female rates have moved toward each other over time,
nonwhite rates are declining very rapidly while white rates
are decreasing slowly. For example, in 1960, overall white
male participation was at 84 percent of the population while
nonwhite participation was at 83 percent, a difference of
only 1 percent. By 1970 this difference had increased to 3
percent and by 1976 it had reached 6.4 percent.
Extrapolation of this trend indicates that the racial
difference in male participation rates will reach 11 percent
by 1990.
In order to understand this trend better, we have
estimated multiple regression equations between this
difference and the respective unemployment rates. The
predictive contribution of unemployment was found to be
insignificant. Examination of growth in gross national
product was also investigated using a dummy variable for
those years since 1960 in which GNP growth was flat or
negative. This also proved to explain little variance and
provide a nonsignificant coefficient. Our conversations
with the staff of the BLS Office of Nanpower Structure and
Trends indicate an awareness of this trend, but BLS provides
no projection of its future course of causal influences
behind this divergence. A review of other work on the
determinants of labor—force participation has given us
little theoretical foundation upon which to build. (3)
Consequently we have run these projections based on current
trends in the difference in the rates. This approach yields
differences of 7.3 percent in 1980, 9.2 percent in 1985,
and 11 percent in 1990 in the rates for white and nonwhite
males. We have taken this tactic mostly in the absence of
any theoretical or practical foundation for acting
differently. It seems unlikely for this trend to continue
much longer, and at the same time it appears unlikely that
the rates will reverse themselves and move quickly back to
(3) Sandmeyer and Warner, The Determinants of Local
Labor Force Par tici tion. ——
IlI—A—52
-------
essential eauality. We have chosen to rely on continuation
of trends in the population portion of the study, and feel
this approach here will be consistent with that choice. For
the purposes of this study, the possible error introduced
will not be critical.
The following tables (III—A—20, III—A—2l, III—A—22, and
III—A—23) are the labor—force size for each component aroup
arid the corresponding percentage breakdown by age in each
sex and race category for selected years.
III—A—53
-------
° ib1 1II—A—2i
Duo l’ iver 5 sin Labor Forc ——19
lot ala
8194159 7652 72
4593922 305 147
542o2b 297622 244465
ite
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15—19
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733632
676211
374949
3 12 4
57421
2959
2 7 3
2 —24
1299263
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8—44
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23154
19659
45—49
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589552
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233514
4U898
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19292
50—54
675951
634559
382o61
252877
41o32
22122
16911
55—59
594713
562386
341575
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32328
1E 163
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375556
356599
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Age Group Percentages ot Sex anci 6ace lotals
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-------
3.4 CAPACITY FOE ThAINING
Throughout this study we have expressed concern about
the potential for labor shortage in the construction trades.
In this section we shall examine some indicators of training
capacity for these specialized occupations. Data on
enrollments in vocational education programs that provide
training for the construction trades is presented. These
data cover the formal program enrollments in secondary and
post—secondary schools. They reflect statewide enrollments
for the four basin states. We were unable to obtain county
data. Secondary enrollments and completions data are
presented for Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky.
Unfortunately, a vast amount of the occupation detail is
subsumed under the “Other category. Three occupations that
are important to the construction of energy facilities are
listed: carpentry, electricity, and plumbers and
pipefitters. Several of the other important occupations are
included in the Other” category.
These data are important, primarily, as indicators of
potential new supply, that is, the propensity of individuals
to seek training in a specified area. There is no guarantee
that people who have undertaken trainina in construction
trade occupations will ever work in that trade, much less
work on an energy facility project. However, with an
increase in job opportunities for construction manpower,
there will be a tendency for the level of enrollments to
rise, the percent of people who complete the program to
increase, and the percent of those completing the program to
SeeK -jobs commensurate with their trainina.
Tables III—A—24 to III—A—27 show recent—year vocational
education enrollments data for construction and maintenance
crafts for the four states. There are three important
features to these tables. First, secondary enrollments
account for a large percentage of total enrollments. High
school students, even those seeking vocational training,
have very uncertain career destinations. Second,
completions are low relative to the stock. In Illinois,
completions represented only 1E percent of enrollments for
the construction trades group in 1976. The third important
feature is that for two occupations critical to energy
facility construction, enrollments and completions are low:
electricians and olumbers and pipefitters.
£nrollments in secondary education vocational programs
do not come close to telling the full story of soecific
occupational supDlies. On—the—job trainirtq, apprenticeship,
occupational mobility, and migration are additional sources
I II—A--58
-------
of manpower. For many of the construction crafts,
apprenticeship is synonymous with on—the—job training.
Also, apprenticeship is the likely avenue for entrance to
the labor market for individuals with hiah school training
in the construction crafts. % e include in Appendix B tables
from computer print—outs of SNAPS (State and National
Apprenticeship System) data listing apprenticeship levels
for general contractors and specialized construction crafts.
The most striking and disturbing feature of this data
is the general decline in apprenticeship levels over the
1973—76 period. Table III—A—28 shows the trends in total
apprenticeship levels for the aeneral contractor and
specialized construction craft categories. Only Illinois
shows a 1976 level greater than 1973. Ohio totals have
declined by over 1000, or 15 percent. Note also that Ohio t s
specialized crafts represent 87 percent of apprenticeship
program enrollments, possibly reflecting craft union control
over supply.
These numbers provide very litle enlightenment on
future labor supplies, other than to show that selected
crafts such as pipefitters will have to grow considerably to
meet the needs of the ECN scenarios. Energy facility
construction is, of course, not the only type of
construction that will be goino on in future years. The
percent of total construction activity represented by energy
facilities now and in the future is not known for the basin.
In 1970, for the nation, only about 2.7 percent of the
construction labor force was employed in electric power
plant construction. If this ratio remains constant, future
construction labor supplies will have to increase several
fold in order to meet the increased demands of the EO i
scenarios.
III—A—E ¶
-------
iable III—A—24
Vocational E Jucation Enrollments
Construction and :aintenance Occupations
1974—76
Illinois
1974 Total Secondary Cor oletions
Carpentry 12,317 l ,43 2,373
Electricity 3,797 2,466 583
Nasonry 472 1 2 42
k 1u bing aria
Pioetittinq 1,593 9 ) 47
t ier t,,357 4,773 763
1975
Carpentry 15,476 14,254 2,880
Electricity 4,14k) 3,720 569
asonrv 392 159 49
lumbinq an i
t iPetittinq 412 114 1 4
Other 5,934 4,763 1,268
1976
Carpentry 17,356 16,183 3,3 ,3
Electricity 3,944 3,251 576
L asonrv 368 166 142
Plumbing and
Pipetittinq 44). 66 153
Other 6,3 )7 5, ø5 1,041
-------
lable III—A—25
Vocational Lc ucation nro11Tents
Construction anu •aintenance Occucations
1’, 7 4—76
Inc iana
1974 iotal econcarv Concletions
Caroentry 1,2F 7 5 3
Electricity 578 146 165
asonry 279 81 136
lu bin anci
I ipetittinc 771 171 233
( ther 1,733 484
1975
t r’)entrv 1,648 724 615
Llectricitv 865 125 615
asonry 258 76 181
lur binn ar
icet1ttinci 748 18 384
utner 1,278 1,827 772
1976
Caroentrv 1,363 519 332
Liectricity 714 145 47
asonry 454 177 49
I 1un bina anj
Pipetittina 1 , 27 17 26
Ct er 2,991 1,612 755
-------
aole III—A—26
Vocational Lducation Enrollments
Construction and t aintenance (jccuoations
1 74—76
Ken tuc y
1 i4 iotal econnarv Completions
Carpentry 2,443 1,714
Electricity 1,64E E7 i 36S
t asonry 249 157
1u binq ana
ipetittinq ii
utner 223 24
1975
Carpentry 2,7U1 1,91 681
6lectricity 2,642 729 296
i asonry 564 271 61
k 1umbing anu
8ioetittifli 363
Lter 1,112 13
1976
Carientry 3, ’i2 134
Electricity 1,674 681 171
i’ asonry 3 238 4
I ’1umbing anu
ipetittinq 348 76 13
ether 1,4 i2 5 71
11I—A--t.2
-------
ia3le 111—4—27
Vocational Education Enrollments
Construction ana aint nance Occupations
1974—76
uruio
1974 lotal
Carnentry 3,957
Electricity 5,lSb
t:asonry 313
£ .Lumhinq ana
picetitting l , 51
Other 1,r79
1975
CarrDentrv
1ectricity 5,261
asonry
Piur’bina ana
Picetitti no 1,4€3
uther 3, i79
1976
Carcentrv 5, 4
Electricity 5,4E 2
sonrv 1,137
1urnbinq anc
Pipetittinq 1,34 ’
Other 5,4E2
111—A—K 3
-------
Yea r
1973
1574
1975
1976
Year
1973
1974
1975
1976
Yea r
1573
1974
j575
1976
Yea r
1973
1974
1975
19Th
General
3 i5 i
4232
3975
4344
General
13 7
1481
1656
1 27 .
(enera I
1225
1212
11 74
I 711
56
829
723
8 7 .‘
Specialized
3346
4643
4 32
3786
oecia1 izeu
15 -/S
118 2
1629
1832
oecia1 izea
44/
427
423
oec Ia! izec
6 8 32
5573
5323
5c; 43
iota 1
7136
8875
8 i11
8 13
iota 1
3322
33 _ I J
3285
31 2
‘lot a 1
] 67 2
16 8
1 s ci 1
11497
Iota 1
68 88
6 4 2
684 6
5873
Table I1I—A—28
Anprenticeships Program levels
General Contractors and Ipecielized Contruction Cratts
Illinois
I noian
-------
4. bALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
4.1 INTRODUCTION
In this section we will cast a judgment on the
eotential for manpower shortages under the alternative
scenarios. The concept of a shortage is not amenable to a
sinqie detinition. In fact, seldom do you find any two
people ascribing the same meaning to this somewhat nebulous
concept. “Shortaqe” in all of its uses suggests that there
are not enough people from a particular point of view. In
the taxonomy of shortages, eight types have been
identified: (1)
1. Salary—rise;
2. Dynamics;
3. Controlled price;
4. Projected supply shortfall;
5. Policy goal;
6. Inelastic supply;
7. Limited pool of availability; and,
8. Misallocation.
Probably more types could be identified.
A salary—rise shortage is the classical economic
shortage in which at current wage levels, the quantity of
labor services offered is exceeded by the quantity demanded.
Competition among employers bids wages up. If labor supply
has a positive elasticity, then the system will adjust to a
new equilibrium in wflich there is some combination of higher
wages and employment. A dynamic shortage consists of a
cumulative growth of vacancies as a result of laqaing
salaries or recruiting efforts. Supply never quite catches
up with demand.
H. Folk, rihe Shortaqe of Scientists ana Enoineers,
Heath Lexinqton Books, Lexington, Mass., 1970.
II I—A—65
-------
A controlled price shortaoe occurs when firms are
unable to hire or retain sufficient workers because they are
unwillinq or unable to pay competitive wages. A projected
supoly shortaqe occurs when projectec recuirements exceed
projected supply. A policy goal shortaae occurs when there
is insufficient manpower to meet desired objectives.
Declines in labor ciuality that sometimes occur when firms
are forced to hire less qualifiea workers is known as a
limitea pool of availability shortage. An inelastic supply
shortage occurs when quantity supplied is not responsive to
chanqinq relative wages. A misallocation shortage occurs
when there exists a sufficient pool of manpower. However,
many are doing jobs that they are overcwalified to fill.
Incomplete specialization often can lead to a misallocation
shortage. A revamping ot work practices, for example, by
removing clerical functions from the tasks of specialized
manpower can lessen the maqnituae of this type of shortaqe.
The primary type of shortace that we will examine is
the projected supoly shortfall. Such analysis is performed
without reterence to potential market adjustments in
relative wages that can attract oeople from other pursuits.
It is not possible to address many of tne other types of
shortaces in a sophisticated manner. However, several of
the other types can be addressed in terms of what miaht
happen when a projected shortfall occurs.
4.2 At’4AL SIS FRAt E ORic
For investiqatinci the potential of a projected supply
shortage, we must have some analytic basis for comoaring the
various scenario demands. One possible basis for analyzino
labor market irroacts is the ratio of labor reauirements for
each scenario to the projectea basin labor force. It the
ratio is low, then one could say that the scenario impact is
low.
e wholly reject this approach for a number of reasons.
First, this approacn ignores the true nature of labor
requirements. A preaominant proportion of these
requirements represent an increase in basin requirements
over current requirements. Thus, a more approoriate measure
of impact is the ratio of the chanae in requirements to the
change in the labor force. Second, the ratio of
requirements to the labor force assumes complete
substitutability ano transferability of skills. It has no
relationship to patterns of employment by sex, for example.
Given historical patterns of occupational employment by sex,
a large increase in the labor force could still lead to
III—A—€’6
-------
considerable shortages in specialized occupations if that
increase is predominately an increase in the female labor
force. For example, in 1970, women represented only 1.7
oercent of employed construction craftsmen in the U.S.
Growth of the female labor force has very little effect on
the availability of construction workers.
Third, the simple ratio approach fails to consider the
process of vocational development, that is, the process by
which people settle in careers. Most people decide on
careers in their late teens and early twenties, seek
training, then employment commensurate with their training.
A certain amount of “flounderina” in the labor market occurs
in the initial years of job experience. A few occupational
and industrial changes occur as people seek to establish
their careers. By their mid to late twenties, most people
are generally established in their careers. Job mobility
decreases dramatically as career establishment occurs. The
vocational development process is reflected in national
statistics. Median years on current job in 1968 was .5
years for males 16 to 19; .8 years for males 20 to 24; 2.1
years for males 25 to 29; and, 10.2 years for males 45 to
49.(2) ith increasina job stability, it becomes more and
more difficult to attract new manpower to new careers.
The above discussion leads us to the conclusion that
not only is arowth of the labor force necessary to meet
rising manpower requirements, but also that growth, for
maximum effectiveness, should occur in the early age
brackets before people become firmly entrenched in careers
that are not beneficial to an energy facility cofltruction
effort.
I’ e will use what we call the “pyramid approach” to
evaluating projected shortfalls. The pyramid is divided
into successive stages, each stage examining the potential
for shortfall by adding an additional dimension to the
evaluation orocess. Thus, the evaluation process becomes
increasingly more refined as one proceeds through the
stages. A aualitative evaluation of the shortfall is made
on the basis of how many stages one is able to get through
before appreciable shortages are in evidence.
(2) E.J. O’Boyle, “Job Tenure,” Monthly Labor 1
-------
The stages, represented oy the following series of
guestions, are as follows:
Stage 1. Is the increase in requirements small
relative to growth of the labor force?
Stage 2. Is the increase in requirements small
relative to arowth of the labor force of the
sex group predominately impacted by growth in
requirements?
Stage 3. Is the increase in requirements small
relative to growth of the new—entrant labor
force?
Stage 4. Is the increase in requirements small
relative to growth of the new—entrant labor
force of the sex group predominately impacted
by growth in requirements?
Clearly, each stage ot this analysis represents a
refinement of the shortfall evaluation process. Achieving
Stage 4 is optimal from the standpoint that sufficient new
supplies of manpower would be made available for the sex—
type reuuireo. ihese new entrants could be attracted to the
expanding fields before they become established in
a1ternati ;e careers.
e must recoanize the limitations to this approach. In
some ways, it is too restrictive. Job mobility occurs even
at advanced career stages, for example. In some ways, it is
not restrictive enouqh. There are demands on new entrants
from a number of ouarters. e cannot aepena on all people
who represent new supplies to choose careers as coal miners
ana construction workers. Taken as a whole, we believe that
the pyramid approach represents a weak test of projection
shortfalls. That is, if we can show evidence of shortages
using this techniciue, we would be able to show additional
evidence of shortages if we actually took into account the
entrance paths to the labor market that people tend to
choose. An example might help to elucidate this point. If
30,000 construction workers are reauired and the labor force
is projected to qrow by 30,000, Stage 1 evaluation would
show balance. But, of course, not all of the 30,000
increase can be expected to become construction workers.
Thus, an actual shortage exists. The pyramid approach
provides sufficient hut not necessary conditions for
evaluation of projection shortages.
III—A—6b
-------
4.3 EVALUATION OF PROJECTION SHORTFALLS
We will examine in this section labor market balance
for each of the pyramid stages and under each scenario. The
ratios in the various stages of the analysis are calculated
by dividing the change in requirements over a selected time
interval by the change in the projected labor force. Thus
if scenario requirements expand by 50,000 and the labor
force by 150,000, the resulting ratio would be .33. Table
III—A—29 shows projected changes in the labor force for
selected time intervals.
III—A—€9
-------
Table III—A—29
Ohio Piver E asin
Chanaes in Projected Labor Force
Selectea Years
t aie and Female
Aqe Group 1980—85 1965—90 1990—2000
15—19 —113761 —900 81583
20—24 —51218 —196988 28781
25—29 101468 —56629 —227313
30—34 225934. 99878 —277667
35—39 174140 211256 8798
40—44 103442 170406 273092
45—49 22073 90996 330041
50—54 —59893 18977 229328
55—59 —18244 —57151 82765
60—64 12655 —20709 —26321
Totals 396616 256936 501087
t ale Univ
Aqe Grouo 1980—85 1985—90 1990—2000
15—19 —68825 —2077 43759
20—24 —51701 —119356 18245
25—29 53592 —46954 —135435
30—34 150864 54272 —169327
35—39 75713 148726 8378
40—44 55354 75846 196762
45—49 7432 51575 204584
50—54 —43187 8039 118550
55—59 —15300 —37962 50803
60—64 199€ —15024 —17496
lotals 165i3 8 117087 318643
III—A—70
-------
4.3.1 STAGE 1 ANALYSIS
Stage 1 asks it total scenario recuirements are low
relative to the change in total labor force. The ratios of
requirements to the change in labor force for the various
scenarios are listed in Table III—A-30. The proper base for
requirements for this test is total recuirements, direct and
indirect (Table III—A—19) . Induced service sector
employment is included in these calculations.
From Taole III—A—30 we see that the EO scenarios
require substantial proportions of the increase in the labor
supply, up to one—fourth. anis ratio droos somewhat as
construction demands decline; however, the ratio is
nonetheless riiah for all years. In comparison, the FTF
scenarios require 4 to percent of the increase in labor
supplies. Yet, even the FTF ratios are not small. when a
single sector activity requires 4 to percent of the
increase in the labor force to perform, we may easily find
labor shortages, especially when the nature of employment is
specialized arid particular to certain industries. But the
important point here is that we are already finding sizable
ratios before we have restricted the analysis to age—sex
groups.
4.3.2 STAGE 2 ANALYSIS
Stage 2 recognizes additional particularities of labor
demand as they impinge on supplies. Direct employment
impacts primarily strike the male labor force. Table III—
A—3l shows the resulting ratios. Therefore, it seems
appropriate to measure Stage 2 impacts of alternative
scenarios relative to the male labor force. The ideal base
is nonservice sector male labor force. But, because we do
not have any information on the trend ot the proportion of
males in the service sector of the basin, we will use the
projected male labor force.
The ratios are not strikingly different from Stage 1
levels. Some values are even lower. Nonetheless the ratios
are deceptively low. Less than 30 percent of the
nonagricultural work force is employed in nonservice sector
industries. Thus, if we were to consider the proportion of
the labor—force increase available to satisfy the direct
requirements, the ratios would increase at least two to
three times.
Il l—A— i l
-------
Table I1I—A—30
Staqe 1 Fatio
Change in Total Requiren,ents to
Chanae in Total Labor Force
Selected years
‘iear BOfri 80/20 EOM 50/50 ‘TF coal FTF nuclear
180—85 .160 .174 .038 .03
1985—90 .253 .202 .05? .068
1990—98 .153 .10 .059 .028
III—A— i2
-------
Table III—A—31
Stage 2 Ratio
Change in Direct Requirements to
Change in Male Labor Force
Selected Years
Yea r
1980—8 5
1985—90
1990—98
BOM 80/20
.162
.232
.098
BOM 50/50
.177
.186
• 070
FTF coal FTF nuclear
.040
.054 .064
.038 .017
III—A—7 3
-------
4.3.3 STAGE 3 ANALYSIS
Stage 3 restricts the analysis to the younger
components of the labor force. Our concern here is the
availability of new entrants and workers not settled in
careers who can be more easily attracted to expandinq
sectors. In this analysis we restrict the age groups to the
less—than—forty years old. This group represents the
malleable component of the work force, that is, this group
is more responsive to changing labor demand patterns.
Arguments can easily be maae that this is a very
conservative estimate of the malleable component. ost
people in their thirties have settled in their careers. Yet
occupation and industry mobility is sufficiently hiah in the
30 to 4 age group to include them in the analysis. e call
this less—than—forty age aroup the new entrant labor force.
Large increases in supplies of new entrants greatly
increase the feasibility of any alternation in historical
demand oatterns. The problem for the basin (and possibly
the nation) is that current population trends indicate that
these increases in supplies will not be forthconinq. On the
contrary, even our somewhat optimistic population
projections coupled with the participation rate projections
show rapidly declining stocks of younger workers. between
l9b and 1985, we project that the new entrant labor force
will grow by 346,000; between 1990 and 2000, a decline of
38€, 000 is projected. Thus, the oer—oerioa increase in
labor requirements dictated by the scenarios, must somehow
be satisfiec with a declinino new—entrant labor resource
base.
Staae 3 analysis, the ratios of which are oresentea in
Iable III—A—32, yields 1980—85 ratios that do not differ
greatly from Stage 1 results. but, between 1985 and 1990,
the increase in labor reauirements nearly ecuals or exceeds
the increase in the new entrant labor force. Even for the
FTF scenarios, the ratio is nigh: 2 to 32 percent. Eetween
1990 and 2000, the increase in recuirements would have to be
satisfied with declininc stocks ot younger workers. The
ratio is not calculable. Occupational mobility, a
substantial increase in migration to the ORB region, and a
chanairiq structure of inaustrial employment patterns would
have to be relied upon to meet these higher requirements.
II I—A—? 4
-------
Table III—A—32
Stage 3 Ratio
Change in Total Requirements to
Chanqe in New Entrant Labor Force
Selected Years
Year
1980—85
1985—90
1990—98
BO 80/20
188
1.183
N.C.
BOM 5 1/5O
• 205
.944
N.C.
FIF coal FTF nuclear
.045 .045
.268 .317
N.C. N.C.
N.C.: Not Computable
III—A—75
-------
The problem is that the age distribution of the labor
force will flatten considerably between 1980 and 2 0ø.
Fewer and fewer younger workers will be available to satisfy
requirements in exDandinq occupations and industries.
Competition for these contracting supplies will be keen
among economic sectors, even within sectors. %‘ e cannot
exoect eneray facility construction, operations and
maintenance, coal minina ana induced service sector
employment to dominate any additions to supply that occur.
Other sectors of the OE E regional economy will also grow and
compete for new supplies.
4.3.4 STAGE 4 P NAL’IS1S
Staqe 4 analysis is based on the male new entrant labor
force. The ratios are oresented in Table lII—A—33. It
examines direct recuirements and, in consequence, suffers
from the same drawbacks of Stage 2 analysis. The
denominator of the ratios should be the nonservice sector,
male new entrant labor force, to reflect the fact that a
larae proportion of the labor torce does not choose to work
in construction, manutacturino, rnininq, transportation, and
oublic utilities. Nevertheless, these ratios show that
beyond 1985, the service sectors will require a very large
oroportion ot the new labor supply. Beyond 1990, an
infinite proportion. If these ratios reflected the
rionservice sector male labor oool, they would probably be
two to three times as larae.
III—A—76
-------
Table IlI—A—33
Staqe 4 Ratio
Change in Direct Requiren ents to
Change in New Entrant——Male Labor Force
Selected Years
Year
19.80—85
1985—90
1990—98
aot.i ee,’20
.165
.780
BOM 50/50
.180
.623
N.C.
FTF coal FTF nuclear
.040 .04
.180 .213
N.C. N.C.
N.C.: Not Computable
III— —’7
-------
4.4 POTENTIAL FO1 ShORTAGES
Ihe Pyramid analysis strategy has shown that there is
considerable potential for labor shortages under the
alternative scenarios, particularly the EON scenarios. Even
in the early stages, this analysis has shown that the BO?
scenarios require a large percent of the increases in labor
supply, a percent that is considerably higher than historic
averages. hen taken in the context of other competition
for available labor arid the specializea types of manpower
involved in scenario requirements, the EON ratios seem
untenably high.
On the demand side, the EON scenarios imply a very
larqe growth in the percent of construction activity devoted
to power plant construction. Approximately 2. 7 percent of
contract construction employment is devoted to power plant
construction in the United States. Total construction
employment in the four states (not just the OPB region) was
493,000 in l9 4. If the U.S. ratio holds true for the OF E
states, then 13,300 people in the construction industry (not
all of whom are construction workers) were employed in oower
plant construction. Thus, even assumino in—state mobility
and no energy construction activity in the non—O! B portions
of the states, the BUN scenarios call for at least a 150
percent increase in direct construction requirements. 10
fire the coal plants under the BUM 80/20 scenario, a two—
thirds increase in coal—mining manpower would be required.
Operations and maintenance personnel also increase
dramatically under the EON scenarios.
It is on the supply side that the crucial proolems
develop. without a doubt, the work force is aqing. Fresh
injections of large volumes of new workers will not be
forthcoming. Much of the future labor force needed for
these scenarios has already been born. l :any are in school
today. Declining school enrollments are evidence of the
future trends, we can expect in labor force entry. These
trends, along with current fertility levels, leave us with
very little to be optimistic about on the supply side. This
holds true for the F LF scenarios also.
The FTF scenarios, however, yield projections which
have several advantaqes over the EOMs in relation to labor
market feasibility. Of course, manpower requirements are
considerably lower, from about one—half to two—thirds lower
in nearly all facets of demand analysis. But more than
that, the FTF scenario projections show a rather smooth
pattern of increase to peak values. They lack the quick
starts and extreme oscillations presented by the EON
I II—A—78
-------
employment trends. This greatly enhances their feasibility
in that the FIT scenarios would allow more time for supply
to adjust to demand, ameliorating potential shortages.
Yet, even the FTF scenarios must be labeled as
minimally teasible relative to what we consider to be
optimistic laoor supply projections.
III—A—79
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APPENDICES
-------
APPENDIX A
-------
CAC Document No. 224
POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE OHIO
RIVER EASIN: 19 0 to 2000
Thomas P. Milke
Robert C. Cauffenbach
Eric Hoisnouser
Center for Advanced Computation
University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign
Urbana, Illinois 61801
February ie, 1917
-------
CON’1EN2
Section Page
ABS’IRACT .2
IN’IEODUClION 4
l E1tiCDOLOG1. 6
1 ODELIMPLE 4EN2AIICN
A. Eirths 8
B. Mortality 11
C. Migration 12
P OJECTIGNhESUL S 14
INPLICATICNS OF hJ PJ &JECHONb 22
GRAPHS AND IAELLS
Graphs Pace
1. U.S. Total Fertility 1940—73 10
2. Age Distribution of the U.S. Migrant PoDulation 13
3. Sensitivity of ‘lotal Poculation to Two Levels of
Net r’iigration 17
4. Actual and Estimated Population ORB 1950—2010 19
‘1 able S
1. Population Projections and Computation of
Chance with a 1 Percent Decrease in Net Miqration
by State, Series II Fertility 2U
2. Population ?rojections and Components of Chance with a
100 Percent Increase in Net Migration by State,
Series IlFertilit y 21
3. ORBES Series I, Il, III, Population Projection,
andCorrputationotChange 24
Bibliography 25
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A S ST ACT
Pooulation orojectons serve a variety of needs in
socioeconomic impact and energy deTrano analysis. For research on
the labor market impacts of alternative scenarios of energy
production in the Ohio i iver Basin, pooulation projections are
indistensable. The size of the basjns future labor force
depends, in part, on the population base. however, available
projections do not provide disaqgreqated projections by ace, sex,
and race necessary for labor supply analysis. In addition, the
available projections are ouestionable for a number of reasons.
They are based on dated fertility rates and other oarameters that
do not necessarily conform to the basins. Also, inconsistent
assumptions and varyina methodolocies are used in the state
projections. Consecuently, we have conducted our own independent
study. e hope that this study will provide a useful input to
other facets of the ORBES project.
e use the component approach to population projections
wnich involves disagoreqating the population into aae, sex, and
race groups, apolying birth, death, ana rniqration rates to each
component of the population, and interactively qeneratinq the
projections through use of a computer simulation program.
Because future fertility and migration rates are unknown, we
provide several sensitivity tests for alternative values in order
to illustrate the relative importance of these parameters and, in
addition, to provide a range of potential future population
levels.
Assuming that recent levels of fertility, mortality, and
migration continue into the future, our projections indicate that
the population of the ORBES region will be 21.1 million people in
the year 2 thc . This estimate is 6.2 percent below the sum of
county projections reported in Task 1. It is necessary to use a
very high fertility level, not experienced for the last ten
years, to achieve the 23 million projecton obtained from the
individual State forecasts. Our results indicte a growth from
19Th base population of about 15 percent, in contrast to the 26
percent growth implied by the four—state region projections.
Chanaes in birth, death, and migration rates, however, could
result in substantial variations from our estimated year 2 iø i
population. e show, for example, that reasonable swings in
migration rates can lead to a .5 to 6 percent change in the
population. Nevertheless, it would require a significant shift
toward regional in—migration and substantially higher fertility
levels to produce a 23 million basin population by 2000. Because
we have somewhat understated the basins death rates by assuming
that they will approach the lower national rates and have used a
2
-------
fertility level that is above the most recent experience of less
than replacement rates, we believe that the 21.1 million
projections is optimistically hiqh. Current trends actually
Point to a lower Projected value.
The population ot the basin will c@ntinua to grow throughout
the Projected period. But, the rate of arowth will decrease
dramatically in the next generation. Given current fertility
trends, the population may indeed reach a peak level by 2 tiø and
then begin to decline. The implications of a stabilizing
population for energy policy and planning are obvious. Growth in
household demand for electricity and other fuels in the reqion
will depend more on increasinq average household consumption as
ooposea to an increasino number of households.
3
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INTROL UCT ION
This document describes the methods and results of a
oopulation orojection study, Ohio biver Basin reqion,
19,6—2000. This work forms the basis for the study of the
labor force of the basin, as well as providing an
independent input into projections of the demand for
electrical generating capacity to serve personal needs.
Each of the states within the basin ( illinois, Indiana,
Ohio, and Kentucky) have published their projections q the
states’ total population by county for the year 2000. ‘ it
would a ear at first qiance that the needs of the OBEE,S
project have been satisfied. ihere are several reasons,
however, for conducting a new opulation study. First, such
a study can be uniquely tailored to the population
composition (age, sex, and race) and projection parameters
(births, deaths, and migration) of the defined OkcSES reaion.
Second, it provides an independent check on previous
projection studies. Thira, the study ot basin population as
a unit allows the aoplication of the same projection
methoaoloqy and the use of a uniform assumption base.
Fourth, it allows sensitivity checks on the various
parameters of the population projection model. Fifth,
properly conducted, it provides a basis for projecting the
basin’s lamor force. Sixth, it opens up the orojection
methodoloay to public view and scrutiny.
we avoid several sources of potential inaccuracy and,
in addition, provide essential information for analyzing the
future labor force of the basin by conducting a orojection
study which conforms to basin oarameters. For example, a
common format for conductiriq state projections is to first
project the pooulation of the entire state and then to
allocate the projected population to the counties. Since
the state projections sometimes include large metropolitan
areas which are not included in the defined OI EES region,
the resulting projections are biased toward the population
composition and other parameters of the heavily populated
reaions. There is very little reason to expect, for
example, the sum of allocate projected values for downstate
Illinois counties to equal the projected population of
downstate Illinois, examined as a unit. Furthermore, for
labor supply analysis the projected value of total
‘Ihese data have been collected in Pooulation
Estimates and ProjectionS for Counties in the ORBES Stu
ne qy r 6u ces renter, Univer ity of Illinois at
Chicago Circle, Sept. 27, 197€.
4
-------
population is a relatively useless statistic. This is
because of the substantial variation in labor force
participation rates of the various ace, sex, and race
groups. (2) projections of the population of the various
age, sex, and race qroups are needed since it is possible
for two populations of identical size to produce significant
differentials in the size of their respective labor force.
To these major reasons for conducting a disaaqreqatea
population study, we add the value of sensitivity tests and
rnethodolocy documentation. Projections of population always
involve the use of a number of assumea future values for
birtn, death, and migration rates. Generally population
studies use the most recent experience in settina the levels
of these rates since there is a very limitea methocological
and data basis for rate projection. Plthouah the future
levels of these rates are unknown, it is possible to test
the effect of rate variation on the projected population
values. e perform these tests for birth and miqration
rates but not tar death rates because of their lonq—term
stability.
Ey providinc’ cocur”entation of the metnodoloqy, we hope
to toster a deqree of “openness” that is seldom available in
population projectionS. e seek critical review of our
findincs and welcome succestions for im rovinq the
methodoloqy. (3)
The remainder of this report is divided into four
sections. First, a general discussion of the component
approach to oooulation projection is aiven. Second, we
discuss the imolementation of the model, state the
or exarnole, in 1974 the total labor—torce
participation rate of the U.S. working age population was
about 61 percent. ut within the total oopulation, males
nad a 78 percent rate whereas females had a 45 percent rate.
I? hite women narticiratea less than black women (45 versuS 49
percent) while wnite men participated more tnan black men
(79 versus 72 percent). Age croup differentials are also
substantial. All participation rates are from Statistical
Abstract of the United States—1975 , 1ab1e No. 539, “Labor
force an ParticiPation Pates, lS6 to 1974, and Projections
to l99 , by Pace, Sex, ana Ace”.
(3) The projection program is more fully explained in
CAC Tech :emo No. 87, “A Component ethod Population
Projection Program for Unix,” Thomas P. Milke and Eric
Hoishouser, February 18, 1977.
5
-------
assumptions, and list data sources. rihird, we present
projection results. In the final section, we discuss some
implications of the findinos.
r ’ ETHO EULOGY
have been many aifferent attempts to accurately
predict the size of future copulations, beginnina with the
geometric progression approach of I althus in the sixteenth
century. any of these are based on an attemPt to fit the
historical trend in population to some mathematical curve,
which usually works well only for short periods of ticre.
Others have attempted to oroject population on the basis of
future employment trends, land—use patterns, or other
variables. The most widely used method, currently in use by
the Bureau of the Census, is a variant of the “component”
method first outlined by Pascal Wheipton in 1928. This
method states that the future of a regions population can
be completely determined by the components of population
change, specifically births, deaths, and miqration. There
are, in tact, many different component approaches, the
differences coming basically from the different methods used
to determine birth or fertility rates. For a thg 9 uah
review of various component approaches, see Redwood.
The component aoproach involves the collection of a
base period oopulation properly disagqregated by the desired
age, race, and sex components. e divide the pooulation
into five—year age groups. Each age group is further
diviced into four sex/race croups. For each forecast
period, the population is aged by applying assumed mortality
rates for each age, race, and sex grouP. These rates vary
widely between groups, although they are relatively constant
over time and among different areas of the country.
Estimated mortality is then subtracted from the base period
population. Survivors are moved ahead one ace group and
projectea births durinc the forecast oeriod are aeded to the
youngest ace group. Births are determined on a
disagqreqated basis by age anu race in a given five—year
period. Consequently the sum of the specific births by ace
and race provides the projected number of total births.
Current 197€ crude birth rates in the U.S. are approximately
fifteen births per thousand per year for whites and about
twenty—two births per thousand for nonwhites.
(4) } edwood, Anthony Leo, Pooulation P jections for
Ma wer Plannina PhD. Dissertation, Universitv of Tlflnois,
I stitute of Labor and industrial Felations, Urbana, 19?3.
6
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Projected births minus deaths is referred to as the
natural increase. All other chanaes in population can be
attributed to in— and out—miqration. Data on these two
migration levels are not generally available. Consecuently
we have been forced to use net mioration, that is the
difference between the in— and out—migration, as a parameter
of the model. This forces the researcher to make some
assumptions a to what the size and direction of this change
will be. c iven that we have correctly specified the birth,
death, and migration levels of the population through the
forecast period, the output of the model will be exactly
correct. e note, however, that total micration within a
population miaht in tact be Quite high, whereas this effect
will be undetectable if the in— and out— levels are rouahly
equal. This may cause significant changes, especially in
the age and race distribution of the PoPulation( which
cannot be taken into consideration in this model. (5)
The projection process of aqino the oopulation, addina
projected births, and correcting for net migration continues
until the forecast year is reached. In this case,
projections to the year 2øø recuire six iterations of the
five—year intervals from the l97 ) base data. Errors are
introcuced into the model by our inability to exactly
predict the levels of births, deaths, and future migration.
Consequently our predictions will become more error orone
over time since our ability to correctly Dredict the
comoonénts of change oecreases in the more oistant future.
f GDEL It PLE ENTATIct
The tollowing section describes projections of the
pooulatjon of the Onio I iver basin trorr the base year of
19,ø. Pooulation data was collected by sinale years of ace
and aqcreaated to fit trie five—year ace groups in published
mortality tables.
ror a discussion of this etfect see J. Cnernick,
B. Inoik, an U. ternlieb, Newark, New Jersey, Pooulation
ana Labor Force, Institute of Manacement ann Labor
F elations, f ut aers tniversity. Sprino, l ’(i.
/
-------
The computer program used to run the crojections is an
adaptation of earlier work by Jane Altes for the State of
Illinois, Department of Business and Economic Develooment.
(6) Separate projections were run for those portions of
Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio which are in the basin and for
the entire state of Kentucky. These four separate
projections were then aaqreqated to obtain basin totals.
A. Births
In keepint with the practice of the Bureau of the
Census and most other demographers, we have presented three
separate projections based on three different fertility
levels. Fertility levels of 1.7 and 2.7 births per lifetime
for each woman were used to estimate low arid high oouncs,
respectively. These are eaual to the Census series I and
III fertility series. Series I Presents a level
siqniticantly below replacement which could not be
maintained in the loria run, without siqnificant reductions
in the population. Series Ill presents a high level which
has not occurred since 1967. c e do not anticipate that
either of these two levels will in fact come to pass, but
present the separate orojections as boundaries for
illustrative purposes. The Census Series II fertility
represents a birth level of 2.1 lifetime births per woman,
which would provide a reolacement level of reproduction.
}ather than use this forecast, we have chosen to use the
level of fertility actually observed in the nation between
the years 197w and 1975. These rates are calculated torn
cumulative births by_ aqe of mother found in Bureau of the
Census publicatons. ( ) The 197 —75 fertility rate for the
population was found to be 2.19 births er woman. This is
close to the Census Series II rate which is effectively the
replacement rate. Race specific rates are 2.176 and 2.373
for whites and nonwhites, resDectively. Althouqh these
rates reflect the l97 )—75 averaae, inspection of the
accompanying table on total cohort fertility show that the
trend during this period is downward, with the total
fertility rate for 1974 being 1.857 ana the rate for whites
being 1.768. Ihese rates are, of course, below the
replacement rate. Eventually the population of the United
States will decline if these low fertility rates continue.
(6) Altes, Jane, with Edward De young, Pooulation
Projections for the State of Illinois and component !9!2
to 2010., Deparment of Business and Economic Development:
Eat ot Illinois, 1987.
U.S. Bureau of the Census Series p—20, Reoort No.
288, iaole 5, Ferti1ity History and Prospects of American
% omen,” June, 1975.
8
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In order to eliminate estimation error in the projection to
the year 1975, we adjusted the fertility rates for each
state portion based on the difference between our original
projectea number of births in each state and the actual
number of births recorded. For projections beyond 1975, we
return to the 2.19 rate for our Series II projections.
The aggregate fertility rates (i.e., 1.7, 2.19, and
2.7) are not used in the projecton program as overall rates,
but are broken down for e ach a e an race cohort oroup based
on the distribution of observed fertility rates. (8) The
overall rates can be calculated by summinc the age cohort
rates and weiahtinq those rates by the appropriate race mix
in the fertile female population. The accompanyinc qraph
illustrates trends in total cohort fertility for th United
States since l94 . Pdthouah these fioures are below the
oasin ficures, it is clear that the trend in fertility is
downward. The total fertility rate for the U.S. dropoed
below the reolacement level in 1972 to 2.022 births. For
the white oooulation, the l.7 fiaure in 173 is close to
the low Series I projections.
.e recognize that the actual number ot births in the
region may well be different from the 2.15 level we use. e
also realize that there are methods of preaictinq the level
of fertility based on social, ecor ?1ic, and other data which
miaht provide better estimates. ‘ ‘ Further studies along
this line would certainly improve the reliability of the
projectons. In the absence of such additional reseaach, we
have chosen the recent rate as aiving a reasonable
approximation.
(8) ibid.
(9) l’edwooO, oo.cit.
9
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1940.0 3 2 4
\ U.S. Total Fertility 1940—73
• \ Source: Statistical A1 stract 1975
•.\ \
\ Table 69.
.••“
1945.C
I ;
1950.0 3 2 4
1955 0
/
196J.0 3
•• “ /
19b .0 .3 ,2
•1 966.0 •
1967.0
• ., 7
196 .C 4
1969.0 3 4
•
1970.0 3 /7
..,
• .•,
1971.0 .3
.. /
1972.0 .3,?”
1973 O 3 1 4”
2:1 2.4 2:7 3.11 3:3 3:6 3:9 4:2 4.5 4:7
10
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E. Mortality
Overall, chancies in mortality in the U.S. over time are
relatively sliqht. Foe Eureau of the Census, tne Social
Security Administration, ano the insurance industry have
expended considerable effort in calculatina mortality rates
so these data are well known. Since there have been no
dramatic c’nanaes in the causes of death, and since there are
no sianificant chanqes anticipated, these data remain
relatively constant. Differences in mortality levels
between acie, sex, ana race orouns are substantial. These
between—group differences are far creater than chanqes over
time within groups. For Illinois, for example, Altes has
found differences in mortality between reoions to be
insianificant. (1w) ‘this mortality appears to be the least
likely source of error in the projections. Since variations
witnin the nation are slight, we have chosen to use national
mortality rates for the nation as t e test estimate of
mortality through the forecast period. (1 As a test of the
hypothesis that this woulo yield reasonable projections, we
have calculated the projected deaths from 19?&) to 1975 nc
national figures and corr pared them to the actual data.
Pesults are as follows:
Actual ano Estimated Deaths l9 ,k; to 1975
State k’ortion Actual Lstimated Error
Illinois l82 f 6 1Th893 —1.57 %.
Indiana 191242 184277 —3.64 %
Kentucky 168575 154199 —8.52
Ohio 342959 32735 1 —4.55
e consicer the maqnituae of tnese errors to be
relatively slicnt. In the long run, we ore ict that the
(la) Altes, OP cit, D. 6
(11) ‘vital Statistics of the United States, 1971,
ortaiity, ‘volume 11 Part A. U.S. Dent, of Health,
Education, anc r elfare, National Center for health Services,
1
a
(12) •s i ureau of toe Census, Current k oDulation
k eports, Series P—26, os. 75—13, 75—14, 75—1 ), 75—35, Table
1.
11
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basin rates will more closely resemble the national rate and
therefore will use the national rate as our estimator. If,
in the lonc run, the basin death rate continues to be hioher
than the national rate, this will provide a slight upward
bias in the projections. e prefer to err on the hiqh side.
Since the base year for the projections must be l9 in
order to obtain an accurate ane, race, and sex distribution,
we nave substituted the actual deaths for the oroqram ’s
estimated deaths in order to avoid estimation error in the
first period.
C. t iaration
Net rniqration is defined as that part of population
change wr ich is not the result of natural increas?. ihe
Ohio basin has generally been characterized by low levels of
net mioration. Durina the 197ø— 5 period, the basin lost a
net 146,750 persons, with Illinois, Indiana, anu Ohio
showing a loss and Kentucky showinc a aain. ‘ibis represents
a total net rate of about —. percent. :e have assumed for
this orojection period that this rate will remain about the
same.
Ihe net migration cornoonent is the one facet of
population chanqe that is most subject to impact by eneroy
policy. ;‘iqration is heavily influenced by the location of
jobs, which is, of course, a result of the number of
companies located in the region. If energy shortaqes such
as we nave seen this winter continue, we can anticipate
relocations of firms ana location ot new firms will occur
outside tne Ohio basin, thereby takina jobs and population
out of the region. On the other hanu, the basin has the
potential tor ceneral self—sufficiency in energy production,
particularly in electricity qeneratiori, which distinguishes
it from several other regions of the United States. The
present effort has not attempted to study these effects
because of the size of the undertakino, but we emohasize the
importance of such work and the notential impact of energy
policy on this asPect of nooulation change. or this
relatively simple study, we have been torcea to rely on past
rates for our projections.
Net migration rates by Live—year age group, race, and
sex groups are estimated in the following manner. First,
net migration totals for each state are aogregateci from
county net micration data prepared by the U.S. bureau ot the
12
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AGE DISTflIBUTION
OF THE U.S. MIGRANT POPULATION
o 0 U U 0 3 3 U U 3 0 0 U
4 I I I
‘4 .4 .4 ‘4 ‘4 4 ‘ S .4
— A l A - .4 4 W . .0
age group
I
I
3—4
males
females — — —
C)
N
\
—13—
-------
Census. 1 ) ‘the net miaration totals are then diviaed into
five—year ace ccc sex qroucs as determinea by the ace mix of
the national migrant population and the aqe and sex soecitic
ratios ot the national population. (14) These figures are
tneri diviced by the population in each age, race, and sex
cohort to estimate the cohort specific net miaration rates.
PROJECTION RESULTS
The accompanyinu qraph and tables summarize the results
of the Projections to the year 2000. e have concentrated
on this year because it is the end date of the ORES study
period, although we have included some data to 20lL . The
graph shows a conmarison of the results of projections for
each of the previously discussed fertility series. Series I
and II are presented to orovide sensitivity checks, arm
therefore our discussion will concentrate on Series II.
The total population that results trom these
projections indicates that the population of the Oriio River
Basin in 2 ’00 will consist of 21,134,433 ersons. e note
immediately that this number represents a sianiticantly
smaller population than the “official” forecasts presentea
by the states. The combined states forecast yields a value
of 23,025,164, which is 1,b90,731, or approximately 9
percent above our fiaure. As a turther check, we have drawn
tne best fit straight line throuah the historic aata for
1950, l96 i, 1970, and 1975. Calculating the value of this
line at the year 20k0 yields a straight line projection of
23,317,000, which is also below the “official” forecast and
still ap roxirnately 1,182,567, or 5.6 percent above our
projected value. Our lower value is based on the most
recent fertility levels. The rate of increase of population
is slowirm down with the declinino levels of fertility and
the somewhat stable death rate. Consequently the orojected
values should be below the straight line orojection of 1950
to l 75 data. ¶Lo illustrate the tiatteninc of the growth
curve, we have calculated the increment in each time period
(13) U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population
Reports, Series o—26, Nos. 75—13, 75—14, 75—17 and 75—35,
Table 1.
(14) rihe five—year age breakdown used in these
orojections is from U.S. bureau ot the Census,
Characteristics of the Pooulation, Vol.1, Part 1, Sec. 2,
Table 19€, “Residence in 165 of the Population 5 years Old
and Over by Race, Sex, ana Ace 1970.” Sex ratios are taken
from the same source Table 189, “Nativity by Ace, Race, and
Sex 1970 and 1960.”
14
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for Series 11 along with the slope of the line segment
joining each point. Results are as follows:
lear Population Increment Slope
1950 14483800
1960 16478700 1994870 199487
1970 17793000 1314350 131435
1975 18328700 5357440 107149
1980 19026500 6977600 139552
1985 19649200 6227340 124547
1990 20248400 5991520 119830
1995 20746500 4981160 99623
2000 21134400 3879260 77585
2005 21460900 3265120 65302
2010 21769800 3088400 61768
As can be seen from a comoarison of the slope of the
line segment over time, the rate of increase is decreasing
dramatically. The accompanying table summarizes the changes
in population by component of change for each of the three
fertility series. Note that under the Series I assumption,
population actually begins to decline after the year 2000
(see graph). Series II population is flattening out at the
end of the projection period and will probably will begin to
decline around 2020.
Analysis of the components of change yields results
which are consistent with the assumptions of the
projections. Deaths and migrants remain relatively constant
during the projection period since the rates in this
implementation are assumed to remain constant throughout the
period. Both deaths and migrants are slightly hiqher in
Series III only to the extent that they are affected by the
higher number of cohorts born during the projection period.
Ceaths flatten somewhat around 2000 as the smaller
depression—era cohort reaches the nigh mortality aae groups,
but will pick up early in the twenty—first century as the
postwar cohort ages.
The most interesting feature about births in the last
quarter of this century is that regardless of the level of
fertility chosen, the nuirber of births will begin to decline
between 190 and 1995. This is caused by the smaller size of
the fertile agea population at that time, that is, those
women born 1965 and the present. Conseauently the empty
schools of the 1970s become the empty maternity wards of the
199 Os
In order to test the sensitivity of total population to
chanes in migration, we have presentd separate sets of
population projections for two different sets of migration
15
-------
assunipations interacting with the Series II fertility
projections. As has been irentionea above, Illinois,
Indiana, and Ohio have recently been experiencinc a net
out—rriqratjori, while Kentucky tias been receiving net in—
migrants. This combines to provide a net migration rate of
— .8 percent of the entire basins population. As our first
variation, we assume a general increase in out—micration
from the reciion. e increase net out—mioration ny l ø
percent in each state portion, thereby doublino tne negative
states an reducing Kentuckys net rate to zero. ‘Ibis has
been labeled high migraton in the accorn anyino orach. It
provides for a lower total oopulation over time. Our second
variation crovides for a lU percent decrease in the level
of outirigration. These results are plotted as low rricration
in the grach because the total number of migrants is thereby
reducea. inc l95 to l 5 total oopulation trend ha. also
been plotted as a reference point.
The use of the high iaration assumption increasos the
number ot cersons who leave the basin and consec uent1y
reauces the total population in 2ø ø. Projected figures for
this assuontion show a decrease of l,58l,3u in total
copulation, or a decrease of .5 Dercent below the normal
Series II fertility projection. Use of the low rniaration
assumption increases the projected population by l, 9e,€ jø
persons, or about 8 percent above the normal Series II
population. Aside from the obvious direct effects of
micration on copulation, there are differentials incurred as
a result of the age distrioution of migrants since the
younger and more fertile population are more mobile. Thus,
a chanqe in net migration affects the total number of births
in the region not only through changing the population size
but also throuqh chanoinc the population comoosition.
Results of these two projectons are presented in the
followin tables, with data summarized for each component of
chance. The high migration figures represent a total Ohio
basin mioration rate of about —2.12 percent of total
population. The corresponding figure for the low miqraton
assumption is about .€ percent. The impact of migration on
births is evident in the table.
It is difficult to project net micration. In general,
we know that the North Central region is losina poculation
(including Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) while the South
(including Kentucky) and best are gaining. In each of the
study states, the rates are increasing, that is, the 197 to
1975 rates have been more negative in comparison to l96 i to
l9 rates for the three northern states, while Kentucky ’s
in—migration has increased. Should this trend continue, net
migration will increase in the negative direction and total
population will be lower. The northern states (total state,
not basin portion) channe from 295,000 out—migrants from
16
-------
.
.
.
.
.
1960
.
1970
.
S
S
S
1975
19 ’O
19S5 ‘4
1990
S
X
• 0 ‘I
C 4
• .
• x
p.
1995 P4
P4 4,
• 4,
n p.
• 0
0 0
•
•
20 0 3 4
. S S . S •
14.5 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.2
Sensitivity of Total Population t
Two Levels of Net Migration.
.4
4
4
1950 4
.4
4
• •
I
• .
ii
-------
1960 to i c Derioa. (15) Luring triese same periods, }(entucky
reversed tro t l75, 0C out—miarants to 57,ø ø in—migrants.
This is probably due in Part to the resurgence of the coal
mining, a fact wnicri illustrates the effect that energy
policy can have on a reqion s poculation. If coal energy
becomes more widespread, tr en the reqions out—miqratiori may
be reversed, but it high—priced energy puts the region at a
disadvantage relative to the warmer South and west, tPe
out—miqratiori may continue ana possibly accelerate. It
appears that wide swings in these trends are oossible and
deserve turther investigation.
(15) Statistical Abstract of the United States—l9 ,
Table No. 12.
18
-------
.1.
1960
1970
1975
1980
1985
0
hi t
. 1990
‘ .4
1995
2000
2005
2
2
ii:
ii:
2
2
4
3
\4
\
I - ’
UI
0
.3
\
\
\
\
S
\
\
3
.4
‘
3
\
2010 2 4
14:5 .15.5 16:6 17:6 18:7 19:7 20 :8 21:8 22:9 23:9 24:8
\
‘
3
19
-------
Table 1
Population Projections and Components of Change with a
100 Percent Decrease in Net Migration by State, Series II
Fertility
Biths
Net Migrants
Population
Indiana
Ken tucky
Ohio
ORB
342,463
288,357
635,973
1,543,999
360,033
314,364
671,112
1,635,866
360,723
323,689
670,854
1,641,401
344,911
316,840
638,006
1,568,380
325,969
307,397
601,358
1,486,571
Deaths
md iana
Kentucky
5 Year
Per iod
Ending
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Ohio
ORB
Illinois
277,206
290,357
286,135
268,623
251,847
Ill inois
180,572
186,227
190,668
193,473
194,436
Illinois
—100,441
—101,272
—101,396
— 99,537
— 96,889
Illinois
3,424,870
3,427,728
3,421,800
3,397,412
3,357,933
197,656
168,686
359,271
911,840
207,917
180,534
382,206
961,325
216,827
190,615
403,126
1,004,641
224,251
199,363
421,237
1,039,287
md iana
Kentucky
Ohio
ORB
—109,360
—0-
—189,718
—399,519
—111,477
—0—
—193,450
—406,199
—112,209
—0—
—195,451
—409,056
—111,011
—0—
—193,600
—404,148
—109,241
—0—
—190,104
—396,234
Indiana
4,152,628
4,203,529
4 ,244, 127
4,261,197
4,253, 675
Kentucky
3,520,641
3,666,320
3,809,476
3,935,702
4,043,736
Ohio
7,654 ,881
7,773,271
7,866,469
7,907,750
7,897,767
ORB
18,753,020
19,070,848
19, 341,872
19,502,061
19, 553,111
20
-------
Table 2
Population Projections and Components of Change with a
100 Percent Increase in Net Migration by State, Series II
Fertility
Births
Net Migrants
Population
Indiana Kentucky Ohio
ORB
350,064
296,135
382,485
338,041
649,159
1,579,545
396,683
363,004
710,155
1,741,609
391,328
369,351
733,287
1,811,777
379,349
718,218
1,789,238
Deaths
I nd ian a
186,885
200,762
215,043
228,494
241,174
5 Year
Period
Ending
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Kentucky Ohio ORB
Illinois
284,187
310,928
318,803
310,341
299,572
Illinois
180,572
189 080
197,139
203,936
209,444
Illinois
—0--
—0--
—0—
—0—
—0-•
Illinois
3, 532 , 292
3,654 ,142
3,775,807
3,882,212
3,972,338
155,350
171,864
187,995
203,126
217,967
334,897
364,658
394,628
423,579
451,011
857,704
926,364
994,805
1,059,135
1,119,596
md iana
Kentucky Ohio ORB
—0—
—0—
—0—
111,910
—0—
—0—
122,786
—0—
141,339
—0—
132,658
—0—
—0—
141,339
Indiana
4,269,589
4,451,314
4,632,954
4,795,787
4,933,962
Kentucky
3,640,330
3,929,292
4,236,961
4,544,526
4,845,896
Ohio
7,857,784
8,203,281
8,541,940
8,836,580
9, 078 , 836
ORB
19,299,995
20,238,029
21, 187 , 662
22,059,105
22,831,032
21
-------
IMPLICA’IIONS OF THE PF OJEC1IONS
This study was unaertaken as the foundation for
estimating the size and composition of the labor force in
the OhEES region. The size of the potential labor pool
dictates what level of activity the economy can sustain in a
region without incurring severe labor shortages. The
composition of that labor force is also important due to the
different oehavior of aqe, sex, and race groups in the labor
market. These projections meet that informational need, but
population is a tunoamental parameter of many aspects of the
social structure, and consecuently population crojections
are useful in many areas.
The acceptance of the states’ “official” population
projections which are based on different methodologies and
assumPtions leads to a projected population that is nicher
than a str.aiant line extrapolation of the 1950 throuc 1975
oopulation of the reoion. The projections Dresentea here,
based on recent chances in the components which determine
population change, show that these levels will probably not
be achieved. Consecuently plannino for the provision of
long—term services, such as electrical eneray, should take
into consideration recent trends in the components of
population change in the Ohio Easin which sinnal the
tlattenina of growth and the possibility of a declining
copulation before the end of the century. Given the
population increases projected under the Series II fertility
pattern, the demand for electricity will increase durina the
study period qiven the same propensity to consume
electricity. At the same time, the rate of growth of total
electrical demand would slow cown from the excerience of the
recent past. These population orojections suqoest that a
thorough investigation of future enerqy aemand is in order.
The most sianificant cr anqe in the Ok EES region in 2000
may not be the number of person, but rather the tact that
the persons living in the region will demonstrate an older
age pattern than the current population. This is of course
caused by the acing ot the Dostwar cohort followed by the
much smaller cohorts now being born. Ihis may nave a
significant effect on the labor market, as well as on the
consumption of electricity. Little is known about age
differentials in electrical consumPtion at this time but the
impact of an acing population on cer capita consumption
could be signiticant.
-------
lhe final important implication of the study is
contained in the analysis of the sensitivity of the
population to migration. It appears that this component is
relatively volatile and can significantly alter the size and
age distribution of the porulation. The aeographic mobility
of workers, just as the occupational mobility of workers, is
determined mainly by economic factors such as the
availability of jobs and the levels of pay of those
positions. Currently the OE EES region has some advantages
relative to other regions of the country which make it a
desirable location for business. These include proximity of
suppliers, low transportation costs to markets, and abundant
supplies of coal and water. The more recent trend, however,
has been for business to show an increasing tendency to
locate and relocate in other areas where labor costs and tax
considerations are more advantageous. To the extent that
the OkBES region can maintain its advantages, the business
population will remain stable or growing, workers will not
migrate out of the region, and the dernana for goods and
services (includinq electricity) will remain strong. The
opposite situation, however, can provide for rather rapid
out—migration of persons, usually at the age of family
formation, with the conseouent drop in demand.
The basic purpose of this study has been to present
population projections to the year 2000. In the course of
this effort, the relationship between the size and
composition of the population to other characteristics of
the region have become apparent. An in—depth consideration
of these factors has not been possible in this work. But
the importance of reliable population projections for the
OI bES recion should not be underestimated when planning for
regional resources in the year 2000.
23
-------
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Five Year
Period Ending
1980
1985
1950
1995
2000
1212972
1311269
1339821
1297492
1214548
B i r th s
1561771
1688 348
1725136
1675897
1609999
857704
911813
969364
1021767
1067443
E eaths
857704
919100
977972
1931264
1078701
—143808
—146514
—144051
—139745
—134095
Net f iigrants
—143808
—146514
—148016
—146517
—143375
1867770€
18930647
15157 035
19293012
19306024
oou1 tjon
1902e504
19649238
20248391
2074650€
21134433
Series Iii Popu1a ion Prolections and Cornoonents of Change
OBIO FcIVEk BASIN SNEPG S UD
ies I Poou Ia tion Pro ctions and cornoonents 2.!
Five year
Period Ending Births Ceaths Net iqrants Pooulation
! 22 I! !12 2 !2a c22 2 2!
Period Ending
1980
1965
1990
1995
20 0
Births
1924 129
20b 086
2125418
2071461
2042597
Five Year
Ceaths
857704
926673
986893
1041132
1090454
Net t’ iqrants Pooulation
—143808
—146514
—152131
—153545
—153010
19388861
20395762
21382156
22258937
23058073
24
-------
BIB OGRAPHY
Altes, Jane, Population Projections for the State of Illinois,
State of Illinois Department of Business and Economic
Development, 1967.
Greenwood, Michael J., Research on Internal Migration in the
United States: A Survey, Journal of Economic Literature.
Illinois Department of Public Health, Vital Statistics
Illinois 1975, Springfield, 1976.
Indiana State Board of Helath, “Estimated Population, and
Residence: Live Births, Deaths, Stillbirths and Rates,
for Each County and Each City over 5,000 in 1970,’
“Indiana, 1970” and “Indiana, 1975”, Table 3.
Johnston, Denis F., The United States Economy in 1985:
Population and Labor Force Projections, Monthly Labor
Review, December 1973.
Kleiner, Morris M., An Analysis of Interreqional Mi ration
for Manpower Plannino, Center for Advanced Computation,
Document No. 133, Urbana, Ii, 1974.
Milke, Thomas P., and Hugh Folk, Economic and Demographic
Forecasting for Chicago, Center for Advanced Computation,
Document No. 201, Urbana, May 1976.
Ohio Department of Health Division of Vital Statistics,
Vital Statistics 1975 Annual Report, Columbus, Ohio, 1973.
Reawood, T nthony Leo, “Population Projections for t anpower
Planning,” POD. Dissertation, Universtiy of Illinois
Institute of Labor ano Industrial Relations, Urbana, 1973.
U.S. Dept. of Cowmerce, Social and Economic Statistics
Administration, Bureau of the Census, “Population
Projections for Manpower Planning,” U.S. Government
Printing Office, ashinqton, D.C.
Stenebjem, Erik J., Forecastinq the Local Economic Impacts
of Eneray Resource Development: A Methodological Approach,
Argonne National Laboratory, December 1975.
-------
Stenehjem, Lrik 3., and James E. Metzqer, A Framework tor
Projecting Employment and Population Chances Accomcanyinc
Eneray Development, Arqonne National Laboratory, August
1976.
U.S. Eureau of the Census, obility for States and the Nation,
1970 Census of Population, Subject Reports, 3une 1973.
U.S. Ceot. of Commerce, Eureau ot the Census, 1970 U.S.
Census of Population General Social and Economic
Characteristics, Report pc(1)—clS,l€,19,37.
26
-------
APPENEJX E
-------
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING DATA
GENERAL CONTRACTORS
ILLINOIS
f. Et’ CHA’ 1CS
sPIL Y S ST TIL’- SETTERS 78
CioI-T xe .S C wJ u MACHII jST I
C PE T ” 151b
—
ET ICI S 1110
L4T( S
—
Mu’ ; IGHrs
- .11’; ; L :E S 32
I 3 wfl9K S
,7:,ç
1L
111
2 (2 _
SH . T T I. W ..- R RS 3
1..
T T, L 37iO
BLDG CDNSTRU—GENL CUNTR
1975
AUTO C RELATED BODY REPAIRERS 0
8 ICF.LAY RS STC 4E TILE SETTERS *04
CABINETMAKERS C WOOD MACHINiSTS 0
CARPENTERS 1411
CEMENT MASONS 155
DRAFIERS I
ELECTRICIANS - 1339
FLOUR COVERERS _________ _____ 0
GLAZIERS 0
LATHERS 4
MILLWKIGHTS 0
OPERATiNG ENGINEERS 80
OitNAMENIAL IRONWORKERS 93
PAI TLRS ____________________ 36
— PIPEFITTERS 154
PLASEERERS 8
PLUMI3LRS 140
ROOFERS 182
SIIEETMEIAL WORKERS 96
SIRULIURAL STEEL WORKERS 116
TOTAL 3979
JLcG i STJ— I L Cü’ TR
1974
AJh, . Rt- 4IEL) iiL-LIIA’ilCS
t. tL 1 LL 8UUY REPAtiEP. _________ 0
ii.- 1L. YL -’S Tj. E c . TILL
LAbIiI’, cb,5 C MACHi-dST j U
LIiML.’41 4AS’J’ 5
‘J. .\I- I — ... . I
LLL LLLA; I S
FLi t (iV tt< —________
2
- ...-. 9 -
t41 LL ’vs 1 .. .HTS . U
Jr t:’(AII , €‘ GI t:L S
uK? U :tu.rAL ARU URKERS________________
t). I I
I I’F.4i1IL S - - 173
— 19
lt,0
- -- 217
“lEcI LIML WUr(t(iRS IU?
214 -—
Iu l L . - 423
- 8LOG CONSTRU-GENL CONTR 1976
BOILERMAKERS ____ ______
BaICKLAYERS STONE & TILE SETTERS 116
CAl LNtIMA ERS C WOOD MACHINISTS 0
CARPENTERS 1604
.ENT MASONS 111
DRAFTERS I
L€CTR ICIANS _1.362_
FLOUR COVEREP.S 6
GLAZIERS 0
LAIHERS 4
tI LLWkIG 4TS ____ o
OPE, A11NG ENGINEERS 112
OI AME JTAL IRONWORKERS__________________ 93
PAINTERS 32
‘IPEFIT1E .S 151
PLASIEKERS 8
PLUMBEr(S ____________ 146
ROOFERS - 177
— . S i€ET CTAL WORKERS - ____________
SIRUC1URAL STEEL WORKERS 210..
TOTAL 4344
-------
t vc s
BcICKLAY .S S1C E C TILE SETT RS 33
___________________________
EM N1 M C .j S 35
EL CTI IA 4S 267
L IU. S 2
____L.1 .±a: rnsS._LLJ L.2QE j 1 L.
PA tIC £NGIt%FFRS 6c2
PIPCFITT .S
PLU4 RS 199
SI 4KLE F 1TTE S 243
___ .L Sfl L ____ _
TUt L - 3346
CONSTRUC—SPEC TRADE CONTa -
1 97 5
AIR COND C REFRIGERATION MECH 9
AUIO C RELATED MECHANICS_______________ 0
BOILERMAKERS - 21
BRICKLAYERS STONE C TILE SETTERS 156
CAbINETMAKERS & WOOD MACHINISTS I
CARPENTERS 564
CEMENT MASONS .-...-..---.
DRAFTERS 6
LLECTh4ICAL WORKERS. NEC 0
CTRIC1ANS 509
FLOUR COVERERS 3
GLAZIEKS 13
LAIHERS 2
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT C POWER 94
MILLWRIGHTS I
OPERATING ENGINEERS S 539
PAINTERS 416
PIPEFITTERS - . 223
PLASTLKERS 13
PLUMBERS ____________________ 687
SH€ETt1 TAL WORKERS 39F
SPRINKLER FITTERS - . 169
SI4WCTU AL STEEL WORKERS 131
MISCELLANEOUS TRADES, NEC 24
CONSTRUC—SPEC TRADE COMT*
1974
AIR COtlD & REFRIGERATION MECH - 9
BOILERMAKERS 21
BRICKLAYERS STONUCTIL SETTERS 146
CABINETMAKERS & WOOD MACIUNIST5 2
CARPENTERS S. — 60,
CEMENT MASONS 52
ORAFIERS 6
ELECTRICAL WORKERS, NEC. _____ ______ 1
ELECIItICIANS 548
FLOOR COVERERS 2
GLAZIEKS 24
LATII ERS 2
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT C POWER 132
MILLWRIGHTS I
- — OPERATING
PAINTERS 365
PIPEFITTERS 388
PLASTERERS 13
I .UMUE kS — — 5--
SrIEEIMETAL WORKERS _______________ 552
SPRINKLER FITTERS 217 -
STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS 125
MISCELLANEOUS TRADES, NEC — 19
TOTAL 4643
CUNSIRUC—SpEc TRADE CONIR 1976
AIR COND C REFRIGERATION MECH 9
AUTO 1. RELATED MECHANiCS
t O1LE14M4K€ RS 24
BRICKLAYERS STONE C TILE SETTERS 119
CABINETMAKERS C Wt UD MACHINISIS - 2
CARpENTERS 501
CEMENT MASQ$ 5 _____ __________ 52
DRAFTERS 4
ELECTRICAL WORKERS, NEC 0
ELECTRICIANS 512
FLOOR COVERERS 3
GLAZIERS . 7
LAIHERS ______ 2
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT & POWER 1o0
MILLWRIGHTS I.
UPERAILi ENGINEERS 4B9
PAINTERS 40 1
PIPLFI TTEKS 212
PLA i1LRERS _________
PLUMBERS 606
SHEEIMtT4L WORKERS . . 444
SPRINKLER FITTERS . 143
T * .rrr.
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING DATA
SPECIALIZED TRADES
1111 IS
1973
I ’ . )
Yt T a
-------
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING DATA
GENERAL CONTRACTORS
INDIANA
8100 CW4STRU—GENL CONTR
1973
AIR CO l0 £ REFRIGERATION MECH 26
BRICKLAYERS STONE £ TILE S TTE*S 86
CAR REPAIRERS 11
CARPENTERS 301
CEMENT MASONS 24
ELECTRICIANS - 278
FLOUR COVEKERS - - 0
GLAZ IERS _____________________ 17
I SULATI0N WORKERS
LAT HE KS
MILL WkIGHJS
PA I NT ER S
PIPEF LITERS
P1 PEF1 TTERS—STEANFITTERS
PLA IU ERS
PLUM RS
SHEETMETAL WORKERS
STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS
TO AL 1347
t L)GC’i STRU—GFt 1 L CO TR
t 1 C ) ) C EF IG±PATIf N : H
43
t ICKLAY:1S STJ .E C TILE SLTT S
97
C’ ’T tc’
264
: : :r ‘ su’ s
i:CY. CL . S
19
295
F-LU , C V.’E 5
0
;L• z IH S
1:’ :ui \iI ) . C!cK S
59
I. ATFV:. S
MILL W. jOlTS
3
17
P. j T 5
1
Ii F! TTE (S
133
:6
PLU T - S
J
Sr1’ TSETAL URK RS
[ iS
36 —
i z
sr ucru t ST L V,URKFRS
53
TOT t_ 1
. L L 4 _.
BLDG COMSTRU—GENL CONTR
— - ._1975_
AIR CUND & REFRIGERATiON MECH 34
• AUTO i RELATED MECHANICS _______ 0
Bi4.ICKLAYER STONE £TLLET UERS t22
CAR REPAIRERS 13
CARPE TE1tS 319
CEMENT MASONS 25
- ELECTRICIANS
______ FLOUR CCJVERERS __________________ 0
GLALLE 1S 22
It ULA1I0N WORKERS 67
LATHER5
MILL Wr(IGIITS 15
PAINTERS 48
____ PIPEFITIEKS _____________ 15a
P1 tFITI ERS—STEAHFITTERS 34
PLASTERERS 16
PLUMOERS 180
ROJI -ERS 89
- - SHEEIMETAL WORKERS 144
____ STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS 63
TOTAL 1656
BLDG CONSIRU—GENL CONTR 1976
____ AIR CUND £ REFRiGERATION I’IECH ______ 23
BRICKLAYERS STONE TILE SETTERS 80
CARPENTERS 275
CEMENT MASONS — — 30
ELECTR ICIANS 249
FLOOR COVERERS 11
GLAZIERS _____ ____________ 18
INSULATION WORKERS 50
LAT 4ERS 7
MILL I R1CHTS 15
PAINTERS 19
PIPEFITTERS 107
P IPEFIUER5— STEAM F ITTER5 _____________ 30
PLASTERERS 13
PLUM8ERS -
ROOFERS 14
SFIEETMETAL WORKERS 128
STRUCTURAL STEEL wORKERS 56
TOTAL 1270
1974
1
15
26
137
______________ 29
14
154
13
130
56
-------
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING DATA
SPECIALIZED TRADES
INDIANA
COl45T&UC—SPEC TRADE CONTR
AIR CONO I REFRIGERATiON MECH 1
BOILERMAKERS ________ 73
BRZCKLAYERS StU E’ I1ILU5EUEAS
CARPENTERS 1.64
CEMENt MASONS 8
ELECTRICAl. WORKERS, NEC 9
ELELTRICIANS
ELICTRUMIC TECHNICIANS 1.
GLAZIEJ4S 15_
LATHtRS 7
LLNL ERECTORS, LIGHT I POWER 80
MECHANICS C REPAIREt(S, NEC 0
PAINIERS 43
PIPEFITTERS _________________ 0
PLASTEREMS
PLUMBERS 481
RJ OF ERS - 63
SHEETP4ETAL WORKERS 1.15
5PRL LER FITTERS 103
sTRucrullAl. STEEL WORKERS 301
MISCELLANEOUS IRAOES. NEC I —
TOTAL L975
1975
CON TRUC PECJ ACE .CONTR_________
Q_
A1 C.’lD C REF1 I&ERAT ION M CH
B0ILEr M4K RS
36
$Tç ! G_J1LE_. Eii &S
CA PC: T cS
<1?
161
E ThT SLS__ .
ELECT h4L WORKERS, NEC
10
E L C1 1 LLAI 1 S
3
GLALI .S
1
L T ____________________________
7
106
LIN. PFCT3 lS, LIGHT C PJw
- - 50 .
PIPFFITT °S
‘1
PtAST ip E S
1_
PLU1t : S
306
_ta
SI 1 Er T.’IE T41 P 3RK KS
146
_SpRIN L LEITT RS
ST L1CTU L STEFL CcKERS
I 2
CONSTRUC—SPEC TRADE CONTR
AIR COND & REFRIGERATION MECH 1
BOILERMAKERS _______ 73
14ICKLAY€RS ST NE 4tIcEET1EkS ar
CARPENTERS 107
CEIIENI MASONS 22
ELECTRICAL WORKERS, NEC 7
ELELT UCIANS 364
i rrun.utr 11r INtCJ4N
LALIERS I
LA THC (S 6
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT I POWER -LOB
PAINTE. S 55
PIP E l IIIE S 9
PLA 1ERE R3 -. 3
PLOMk3ERS 383
ROOFERS 20
SrIEETMETAI. WORKERS 160
RLN$L R FITTERS 132
SIRLJCIURAL SlEEL WORKERS 2 3
TOTAL 1882
CONSTRIJC—SPEC TRADE CONTR _____ 1976
_____AIR CONO C REFRIGERATION MECH___________
BOILERMAKERS 12
BRICKLAYERS STONE TILE SETTERS 114
CARPENTERS 172
CEMENT MASONS 20
ELECTRICAL WORKERS, NEC 9
____ ELECTRICIANS 317
ELECTRONIC TECHNICIANS 1
GLA1LERS ____ 15
LATHERS 7
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT 1 POWER ________ .52
HECHANICS C REPAIRERS, NEC 0
PAINTERS ____ 43
PIPEFITTERS 0
PLASTERERS . 2
PLUMBERS 4 8 B
ROOFERS 54
SHEEINETAL WORKERS 103
_.SPRIUKLER TIERS
STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS 272
MISCELLANEOUS TRAES,_.Ngc . . _ L
TOTAL
162 ) TOTAL
-------
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING DATA
GENERAL CONTRACTOR
KENTUCKY
U i
bL(’ C T U—CE L ( J TP 1973
AI _C. 4) 1. R FRIG ATIU . :4ECH
4tP. FT 4 CH UCS 3
RELATED :‘ECFAdCS
I(L .Y S STC ’ C TIEr: SETTERS 53
C I T KE?S C ‘ CL) : AX HI’ ISTS 33
c PE.T .S 231
F’4M•r r j’jS 16
4
: E T 1C14 211
E%.tJ . CJV E S 0
9
I \L TECH lC IA’iS
13
L. ThE S a
MTLLp IGHTs 50
- ‘.J L
1 T ’5 .
‘k L
S
.. L 12.
S,iTl T. L 38
..5 P _ftT .L ._._____ —_ 100
ST UC.T(J L STFt-L Wfl K. RS
C
- .. .-..
BLDG COt STRLbGENL CONTR
1975
AUTO C RELATED MECHANiCS 46
BRICKLAYERS STONE C TILE SETTERS_______ 57
CABINETMAKERS C WOOD MACHINISTS 28
CA PENTERS 104
CEMENt MASONS 20
DRAFIERS 2
ELECTRICIANS .. - — 213
GLALLLRS 11
INDUSTRIAL TECHNICIANS C)
INSULATION WORKERS 11
LAT ERS .. S
LINE ERECTORS. LIGHT C POWER 10
OPERATING ENGINEERS 0
PAI MTEkS _______ 39
PIPEFITTERS 100
PIPEFITTERS_STEAMFITTERS 0
PLASTERERS .
PLUMBERS . 85
SHEETHEIAL WORKERS 110
P )liKLE FilTERS 120
STRUCIU AL STEEL WORKERS 40
MLSCLLLAN OUS IRADESi NEC 4
bLOC CONSTRU—GENL CONTR
1974
AIR CUNO C REFRIGERATION MECH 0
AiRCRAFT MECHANICS ______________ 2
AUTO C RELATED MECHANICS
B ICKLAYE S STONE C TILL SETTERS 79
CABINE1MAKERS C WOOD MACHINISTS 10
CARPEHIERS 223
CEMENT MASONS 24.
ORAFTE S ________ 2
LLECfl(tCIANS .— 215
GLALIci S U
INDUSTRIAL TECHNICIANS --. .. I
L SULATION WU KERS . .
LATHtRS 4
LZNL Et4ECTORS, LIGHT C POWER 14
MILLWRliHTS 20
UPERAUNC ENGINEERS - 0
- 42
PIPEFLITERS .- 103
PIPL#1T I ERS—STEAMF ITTERS . .. 0
PLASTERERS ________________ 4
— PLUMBL S —,-—-— . 106
SHEETMETAL WORKERS 115
SPKIN’(LER FITTERS . . 113
STRUCIURAL STEEL WORKERS 41
MISCELLANEOUS TRADES, NEC 4
TOT AL
BLDG CUNSTRU—GENL (UNTIl
1212
1976
AUTO C RELATED MECHANICS ____ 46
BRICKLAYERS STONE C TILE SETTERS 51
CABINETMAKERS 1. WOOD MACHINISTS 28
CARPENTERS . 164
CEMENT MASONS 20
DRAFTERS - 2
ElECTRICIANS _________________ 213
GLA LLRS 11
INOUSThtIAL TECHNICIANS 0
INSULATION WORKERS . - 17
LATHEMS 5
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT £ POWER 10
OPERA1I G EMGINEERS _____ ____________ 0
PAP’ TERS 39
PIPEFITIERS 100
PIPt±F(TT€RS-STEAMFITTERS 0
PLASIIRERS . 3
PLUMBERS 85
SMEETMETAL WORKERS 110
SPRI REER FI1TE S 120
STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS 40
MISCELLANEOUS TRADES, NEC 4
TOTAL
1014
T( T .l
1074
-------
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING DATA
SPECIALIZED TRADES
KENT1JC KY
LU PEC TRADE C.O$TR
ic
AIR CUNO C REFRLGERATION MECH
AUTU C RELATED MECHANICS _______
BOILERMAKERS
ICKLAVEiLS STONE TIlE SETTERS a
CARPENIEKS
Ct 4tNI MASONS
COMP OSI T ERS
ELTRICAI. WORKERS, NEC
ELECTRICIANS - 12
FLOUR COVE RERS
&LAZIERS
LNsuLArLotd WORKERS
LA THE RS
L1N ERECTORS, LIGHT POWER______ 2
— MAC18 INE LET—UP & OPERATORS I
MACNINISTS -
MAINTENANCE MECHANICS 1$
MECHANICS & REPALRCRS, NEC -. 4
UPERATING ENGINEERS
PAINTERS II
P1PEFI1IERS
PLA, 1ERERS — I
PUMEERS
C
SIIEiTMETAL WORKERS
— STRUCTURAL STEEL. WORKERS ___________IS
- TAPERS C DRY—WALL INSTALLERS 0
- MISCELLANEOUS TAAOES , NEC - I
TOTA l. 39$
cONsrRuc—sPEc TRADE CONTR
_____AIR COND C REFRIGERATION MECH _______
AUTO C RELATED MECHANICS 1
BOILERMAKERS
BRICKLAYERS STONE C TILE SETTERS 2?
CARPEHIERS - $4
ELECTRICAl. WORKERS, NEC — 2
_____ ELECTRICIANS _______________________12$
FLOOR COVERERS 2
____ GLAZIERS _______________
ZNSULATII)i WORKERS S
_____ LATMERS ____________ 1
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT C POWER
_____MACHINE SEI—UP_C_ERMJIg,S
MACHINISTS 9
__MALNTENANCE MECHANICS ________-—_____ 7
MILLWRIGHTS 20
____ OPERATING ENGINEERS -
PREMIERS 20
___PIPEFLTTE*S I L.
PLASTERERS &
_____PLUMBERS________________________________
RO. FERS 2$
____SHEETMETM. WORKERS ____________ 4 .
STRUCTURAL. STEEL daRERS 0
TOTAL 423
45T: u — ?Ec. !P C 17
t.I CTh2_l iF21 kL1 -ELH I L
AUT F. ‘ATfl C44A’.ICS 2
—
:I KL’.YC rc’ (. u.:
C ’-Ki 4’ 1, S 0
1
LI C1IC L 4O K. S, N C 0
E’ T I r Jog
FL 2
—______________________
I .SR. TIC:. wGF RS 10
LIr. LIGHT C 2Ci
Mt. I4!ST 1
7.
‘4C i .P . I . F.P .I’C S, EC 0
! •S 7
1 I
i__
Pit. 7’:- 2
PLL . 66
5hT -Tt.4 12
C Y— :u. I SLi 1
s i
447-
CUNLTMUC-SPEC TRADE CONTR 1975
AIR COND & REFRIGERATION MECH 8
AUID C RELAIE*7 MLCHA,IICS 1
B O ILEKMAK EKS 11
B&ICRLAIEKS STONE & TILE SETTERS 27
4
EL.ECI4CAL WORKERS, NEC 2
LLLCTKU. TANS - 131
FL04 iR CUVE. ERS — 2
—— 6LA2Ic4 — B
1NSULATl( 4 WORKERS 4
I
LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT & POWER - - - 13
$ACMLt.E SET—UP & OPERATORS 0
EIACISI’ ISTS 9
— NA1,TEHANCE MECHANICS - 9
MILL IGHTS 20
OPLRAIU.G ENGINEERS 0
PAINTERS 19
PLPEFLTIERS - - 14
PLASTERERS 1
— P z4 s - or
2$
S$EETI4ETM. WORKERS -- - 4
STRUCIUNJI. STEft. yORKERS 0
- TOTAL
421
—6--
-------
APPRENTICESHIP TRAININ( DATA
GENERAL CONTRACTOR
OHIO
E ICKL8Y tS STONE C TILE SETTERS
i97
12
C WOO ) MACHINISTS
15
C PE iT S
O lS
379
1
ELEC! ICIQ’ IS
,1
o
MILL i IH’S
0
T I’•.r; 4uI r SS
PI FFIT S
1
0
s_________________________________________
C TV kEPAIRE S
S’i i TAL W0 K I S
14
IQ_
71
ST : TIJ’L Tr L r K s _____
-
C DIK S
•
0
TJTLi
8,6
BLDG CONSTRU—GEM.. CONTR _ ___i975
____ BRICKLAYERS STONE C TILE SETTERS 98
CABINETMAKERS C WOOD MACHINISTS 18
CARPENTERS ______ 323
DRAFTERS 8
ELECTRICIANS ________ 90
FLOUR COVERERS 1
_____INSULATION WORKERS ____________________ 8
MEC. ANICS C REPAIRERS. NEC I
PIPEFITTERS _________ 0
PLUMBERS 33
— ROOFERS _____ 70
SFIEETMETAL WORKERS 48
ST tUCTUdALSTEE%.. WORKE _______________ 25
TUULP AKERS & DIEMAKERS 0
TOTAL 723
BLDG CONSTRU—GENL CONTR
1974
BRICKLAYERS STONE C TiLE SETTERS -- - 99
CABINEIMAKERS C WOOD MACHINISTS________ 5
CARPENTERS 386
C N IIT MASONS 0
OKAFIERS 7
ELECTRICIANS 57
IN ULAT ION WORKERS 8
MEChANICS C REPAIRERS, NEC ________ I
OPERATING ENGINEERS 0
PIP FITIERS 0
PLUM3LRS 34
RADIO C TV REPAIRERS 58
ROOFERS 75
SHLEIMETAL WORKERS — 60
S1E’ UCTUKAL STEEL WORKERS 39
TOOLMAKERS C DIEMAKERS 0
TOTAL.
829
BLDG COUSTRU—GENL CUNTR
1976
BRICKLAYERS STONE C TILE SETTERS 135
CABINETMAKERS & WOOD MACHINISTS 9
CARPENTERS 407
CENENT tIASONS - I
DRAFTERS - - 12
ELECTIUCIANS 65
INSULATION WORKERS 8
MECHANICS C REPAIRERS. NEC _____ 1
MILL IRIGHTS 0
UPC.RA1IhG ENGINEERS 1
Pl L i LITERS U
PLUMOERS 52
KADLU . TV REPAIRERS 49
ROOFERS 39
S.IEEIMETAL WORKERS — 58
STRUCTURAL STEEL ORKERS - 32
TUOLM4K RS C OIEMAXERS 0
MISCELLANEOUS TRADES, NEC I
TOTAL
870
-------
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING DATA
SPECIALIZED TRADES
OHIO
-- COSTRUC—S EC cr cu’ . _192i_. -— — - CONSTEUC—SPEC TRADE CONTI
AI4A LPcr”JL RATPJN MECH 3Q AIR co. o A REFRIGERATION NECH at
AUTo t. iI.4TI CIiA i1 0 -- Auro C RELAIEO MECHANICS 8
AUTO C RELATED BOUT REPAIRERS 2
Bk1CKt.. YL°S St..E C T1L SFTTE S 232 BOILERMAKERS -
(As4 1,Sc . - 1. w C CHLNLSTS. .. 13 BRICKLAYERS STONE A TILE SETTERS 178
ob CABINETMAKERS C WOOD MACHINISTS 12
______ -_______________________ CARPENTERS 804
3 - -- CEMENT MASONS ________ 161
___ j cT Ic L w ’:’KS,_4EC_. .. I 0 PIERS — - 3
ELE(T”ICI S 947 ELECTRICAL WORKERS, NEC 1
______ _____________ 65 ELECTRICIANS 977
GLAfl 29 FLOUR CUVERERS 59
I’ISIL!’TIUN 94 GLAZIERS 20
26 INSULATION WORKERS _________ To
L CT .Y S, LIGHL WE&___ -__ _125 LATHERS — 28
sec ics . p. j oEpS, ; EC 0 LINE ERECTORS, LIGHT A POWER 143
____Mn.L 1GHrs - ._ __ - __ 9 MACHINISTS
UPE A1INC GI S 41 MECHANiCS A REPAIRERS. NEC ii
_____________ 1 9. NILL RiGHTS
PATrc MAKERc - I _ .OPERATING ENGINEERS 41
_________ 4b4 PAINTERS 203
P AST RE S 9 PATIEkMAKER$ 1
_________ ______— _____865 PIPEFITTERS —
RADIO C TV .I FS 5 PLASTERERS - 24
_______________ - .3J1 PLUMBERS - - - 434
SH€T’4 T L w’ ’S 557. _. RADIO ATV REPAIRERS ______
SPRI’ L _FI 1S___. 497- ROOFERS
STRuCTURAt 5T ’ 1 L ;‘OR S 4o1 SHEETMETAI. WORKERS 539
TAPL3L osy— aLL ,.iTAL’- - c _ _--_ 2O SPRINKLER FITTERS
MISCELLA’4E )US c 31 STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS 477
______________________________________________ TAPERS C DRY—WALL INSTALLERS - 20
TOTAL 6032 - - TOOLMAKERS C DILMAKERS _____ 12
- MISCELLANEOUS TRADES, NEC 21
TOTAI. - - 3573
1 7j
1 76
CONSTRUC-SPEC TRADE CONTE
A1R CONO A REFRIGERATION MECH - 22
____AUTO A RELATED BOUT REPAIRERS 1
O OILERMAK.ERS 92
BRICKLAYERS STONE A TILE SETTERS __212
CUINETMMERS C WOOD MACHINISTS 2
CaRPENTERS 759
NE$T MASONS - 203
DRAFTERS _________________ 2
- ELECTRICAL WORKERS. NEC - I
-, ELECTRICIANS .
- P4.004 CUVERERS - . -. 52
GLALIERS 12
INSULATION WORKERS 62
&.AI I4E*S _______ 26
LINE ERECTORS. LIGHT C POWER 106
NEC.NANICS A REPAIRERS. NEC 7
MILLWRIGHTS 105
OPERATING ENGINEERS 47
PAINTERS - - 184
PITT EMMAKERS ______ ____________ 1
PIP EFI IItI ’S ______— 411
PLASTERERS . .. 25
R.I PthE.(S 443
EAOIU A TV REPAIRERS 1
RUOFERS 116
SNEETNETAL WORKERS _____ 470
SPRINKLER FIlTERS 50 1
STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS 472
TAPERS A DRY—WALL INSTALLERS 13
*LSGE&&ANEUUS TRADES, NEC - Li
CONSTIIUC—SPEG TRADE CONTE _____
AIR CORD & REFRIGERATION RECH . IS _
AUTO C RELATED BODY REPAIRERS 0
BOILERMAKERS
BRICKLAYERS STONE & TILE SETTERS 192
CABINETMAKERS £ WOOD MACHINISTS 7
CARPENTERS TRY
____CE ME NT MASONS 1 6$ -
DRAFTERS 2
ELECTRICAL WORKERS, NEC _1_
ELECTRICIANS 98 1
- FLOOR COVERERS _______________________
GLAZIERS 17
_____tNSULATI I3 _W ERS 61_
LATHERS 23
-. __.&.INE ERECTORS. LIGHT A POWER________
MECHANICS C REPAIRERS, NEC 3
MILLWRIGHTS .. ______________95_
OPERATING ENGINEERS 37
_____PAINTERS - . 11Q_
PATTERMAKERS A
- _.PIPEFITTERS
PLASTERERS 25
___PLUH BERS ______ 474
RADIO C TV REPAIRERS 0
_.RUUFERS - IQZ_..
SHEETMETAL WORKERS 433
- . - SPRINKLER FITTERS ______ 481
STRUCTURAL STEEL WORKERS 370
-. TAPERS A DRY—WALL INSTALLERS 11
MISCELLANEOUS TRADES. NEC I
T OTAL . - S!Z3 TOTAL
5003
—8- .
------- |