United States
         Environmental Protection
         Agency
Region 5
77 W. Jackson Blvd.
Chicago, II 60604-3507
Illinois, Indiana
Michigan, Ohio
  , \M3ccnsri
         Environmental Sciences
                       7 November 1992
         905-R-92-002
AEPA   Project LEAP— Phase 1
        Spatial And Numerical
        Dimensions of Young
        Minority Children Exposed
        to Low-Level Environmental
        Sources of Lead
        Summary Report

-------
SPATIAL AND NUMERICAL DIMENSIONS OF
YOUNG MINORiTY CHILDREN EXPOSED TO LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL SOURCES OF LEAD
Summary Report— Phase 1
BY
WILLIAM H. SANDERS ifi
Director, Environmental Sciences Division
U.S EPA Region 5
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Region 5, Chicago
Environmental Sciences Division
Project LEAP (Lead Education and Abatement Program)
77 West Jackson Blvd, Chicago, illinois 60604-3507

-------
Lf
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This research considers the known environmental sources of lead in 83 cities in the Midwest,
estimates the probability distribution of lead in African-American and Hispanic children (as well as the
total childhood population) under seven years of age in each of the cities, and compares the numbers of
children at risk. The approach thus developed is a population comparative risk screening methodology
for ranking geographic areas as to potential lead toxicity. This data analysis report is the first phase of
a three phase effort. Phase 2 will be to conduct sampling in a small number of communities, as well as
to begin public outreach and education on the dangers of environmental exposure to lead. Phase 3 will
be to conduct remediation of environmental sources of lead (e.g., soil and dust) in one or two
communities.
The objective of Phase 1 is to estimate relative blood-lead levels in childhood populations and to
compare geographic areas to ascertain the severity. For each metropolitan statistical central city area,
environmental data were obtained for the major sources of exposure. This included stationary source air
facilities, municipal waste combusters, ambient air quality measurements, drinking water supplies, and
operating as well as abandoned hazanlous waste sites. Where available, actual concentrations were used.
Default values were established for each environmental medium where actual measurements had not been
taken. Major air emission sources were modeled to calculate associated air concentrations. The results
were used in a qualitative assessment of environmental exposure.
Demographic data were obtained from a geographic information systems application (provided by
the Geographic Information Systems Management Office, Region 5, U.S. EPA). That office provided data
at the census tract and community area (aggregation of census tracts) levels for each city. In general, a
census tract has a population of about 4,000 people. Environmental data (air, drinking water, soil and dust
concentrations) associated with each tract were obtained in order to calculate blood-lead level distributions
in affected populations.
Based upon these environmental concentrations for each census tract/community area, the Uptake
Biokinetic Model was run to calculate an expected percent exceedance for each area. The percentage,
applied against the population data for the tract, provided an estimate of the number of children under
seven years of age at risk of lead exposure. Further aggregations allowed for a city total, as well as a
numerical ranking of cities.
Data from a single geographical area, Minneapolis/St. Paul,Minnesota, was selected to test the
methodology. That area had available measured blood-lead levels, along with pertinent demographic
information. Two statistical procedures were performed. A simple correlation analysis was conducted
to ascertain whether modeled blood-lead levels, based primarily upon the environmental data for the area,
were associated with actual measured blood-lead levels. An association would indicate the viability of
the approach in comparing cities. The correlation analysis indicates a correlation coefficient of 0.3. It
is only statistically significant, however, at the 0.10 level.
The second statistical procedure was conducted to further analyze the contribution of
environmental pathways of exposure to elevations in blood-lead levels and, in particular, to ascertain
whether mobile sources (i.e., proximity to a major transportation corridor) could account for a portion of
the elevation in blood-lead levels. No association was found.
An analysis of environmental data indicates that a tremendous quantity of lead Is still being
released into the environment, and that quite typically a small (relative) number of sources contribute most
of the contaminanL For the six Midwest states, industry released nearly 450,000 pounds of lead and lead
compounds Into the air in 1988. Seventeen sources out of nearly 350 reporting facilities accounted for
almost one-half of the total emissions. Nevertheless, air quality, based upon measurements of the ambient
air, was excellent, with few exceedances of the primary air quality standard for lead. Point sources of
emissions, although many in number, generally do not cause concerns (a measurable Increase in the
1

-------
ambient air-lead concentration). The notable exceptions are a few high emitting industries. For those
industries, the increased ambient air-lead concentration, as modeled, is expected to occur near the source.
Although there is a large amount of lead emitted into the air, only a few sources emit lead and lead
compounds in sufficient amount to exceed the ambient air quality standard for air. Only two of 17
modeled stationary sources of air-lead emissions had calculated maximum point downwind air-lead
concentration values projected to exceed the air quality standard of 1.5 .Lg/m 3 . Drinldng water supplies
are also typically safe, although exposure does continue in some communities. Violations of the drinking
water standard are rare.
Exposure to lead through soil and dust, associated with operating and abandoned hazardous waste
sites, may occur in a few cities. The majority of sites, however, are located beyond the boundaries of the
central cities assessed and, consequently, do not generally pose a threat.
The research placed special emphasis on the risk posed by low-level environmental sources of lead
to African-American and Hispanic children. These populations are thought to be at particular risk. For
children residing in central cities of one million population or more, and annual family income less than
$6,000, 68 percent of African-American children are projected to have blood-lead levels exceeding 15
g/dL For white children in the same socioeconomic strata, the percent projected to exceed that value
is much smaller, at 36 percent.
Seven cities in Region 5 are in the top 10 of the 83 cities assessed in the Midwest by virtue of
having both the highest percentages of children as well as the greatest numbers of children that may
exceed 10 pg/dL blood-lead concentration. Those cities are Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Detroit, Michigan;
Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota; and Cincinnati, Akron, and Cleveland, Ohio.
The analysis indicates that the States of Illinois and Michigan had the largest numbers of African-
American and Hispanic children under seven years of age calculated to exceed 10 .tg/dL blood-lead level.
This includes 28,000 and 16,000 minority children, in the respective states, due to environmental sources
of lead. Every Region 5 state has community areas where elevated blood-lead levels are of concern.
For the six Region 5 states, all cities combined, the total childhood population under seven years
of age was 1,359,000 in 1988. The findings indicate that 154,000 children, or 11 percent of the total,
would have blood-lead levels exceeding 10 tg/dL The predominant environmental sources are lead
contaminated soil and dust. This includes 55,000 African-American and 12,000 Hispanic children.
The cities with the highest potential for sizable numbers of African-American and Hispanic
children with blood-lead levels calculated as above 10 p .gIdL are Chicago, Illinois, 27,000; Detroit,
Michigan, 13,000; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 5,000; Cleveland, Ohio, 4,000; Cincinnati, Ohio, 2,000; and
Indianapolis, Indiana, 2,000.
It is important to note that this methodology is for population screening purposes. It expands upon
the use of an Uptake Biokinetic Model for derivation of blood-lead levels. Such use of the model has not
been attempted before. The Uptake Biokinetic Model was developed specifically for application at
abandoned hazardous waste sites for which measured environmental lead concentrations are knows. The
Uptake Biokinctic Model has only been validated at that spatial scale. This methodology applies it as a
much larger spatial scale. It includes both estimated and measured environmental concentrations, and uses
the model as part of a population risk screening approach. Consequently, the results may have no
practical value as a prediction of the actual number of children expected to have elevated blood-lead
levels. Nor was that the intent of the methodology. The value of the approach is in the comparison
between cities. It is specifically to locate areas within a city that may be expected to have higher rates
of lead exposed children than other areas. The intent of the population screening methodology is to use
the relative number to set priorities for intervention efforts within a city or region. The reader is
particularly cautioned that the numbers of children cited in this research are as derived by the
computerized methodology. The methodology Lc a screening tool. It is not a methodology to predict
actual number of children at ,isk.
PrqJect LEAP— Phi.. 1 Summary R.port i i

-------
The Spatial and Numerical Dimensions of
Young Minority Children Exposed to
Environmental Sources of Lead
Introduction
In 1987 the U.S. EPA (EPA) published a document entitled “Unfinished Business”. The report
provided a best professional judgment review of agency programs and environmental problems from the
perspective of comparative risk. Since that time, all individual medium program offices at EPA
headquarters, as well as each of the 10 regional offices, have developed a comparative risk analysis
pertinent to the program or geographic region of concern. The intent of the approach was to discern and
prioritize environmental problems affecting human health and the environment; to determine whether
Agency programs were adequately addressing the existing and emerging environmental concerns; and to
assess whether resource shifts (at the margin) could impact priority environmental problems that otherwise
would not be addressed. The Region 5 office completed its comparative risk study in the summer of
1990. The analysis identified several cross-cutting concerns. Several program areas identified lead as one
of the multi-program pollutants of concern. The region thus selected lead as a priority area, and charged
the program managers, and a project director, with development of a comprehensive strategy and
implementation plan to address and rernediate lead contamination in the six state region.
The group recognized that many in the public health community consider lead poisoning in
children to be a national epidemic. Lead exposure from exterior and interior residential paint, in
particular— as well as exposure from contaminated soil and dust in and around structures present in most
urban areas, drinking water, air emissions, food, occupational settings, and hobby activities— result in
multiple pathways of exposure. These exposures are responsible for several adverse health effects in
humans, especially in children. Qtildren are at greater risk than adults when exposed to the same amount
of lead. This is due to increased inhalation, increased absorption, mouthing and behavior patterns, and
other factors. Consequently, a targeted population has been chosen to be children under seven years of
PrqJ.et LEAP— Phaps 1 Summary Report 1

-------
age. Within this population group, African-American and Hispanic children are particularly targeted, in
recognition of the greater risk of these populations to the uptake and effects of lead exposure.
Project LEAP is a multi-media and multi-program approach having four basic components: data
analysis and targeting; pollution prevention; education and intervention activities; and abatement activities,
Region 5 is implementing the project over a three year period. It is both a regional initiative and a
component of the Agency Lead Strategy. This report is a summary of the initial efforts of Project LEAP,
which focused upon data analysis, air modeling of major sources, prioritization of sources and areas for
targeting purposes, and selection of geographic areas for attention during the second and third years of
the Project.
The study area includes 83 cities located in 60 metropolitan statistical areas in the Midwest. These
cities represent the central cities in all of the metropolitan statistical areas in the States of Illinois, Indiana,
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.
Back mund
The effects of lead toxicity on human health has been extensively researched and recognized for
decades. Indeed, scientific research extends as far back as 1892. High exposure, in particular, can cause
encephalopathy, colic, anemia, nephropathy, electrocardiographic abnormalities and, in extreme cases,
death. Reports of spontaneous abortion, decreased fertility in men, still births among pregnant women,
and sundry other health effects, are replete in the scientific literature.
The insidious effects that lead causes on the health of children have received increased attention
in recent yeais. Due to mouthing behavior, increased uptake of lead compared to adults, nutrition and
other factors, children under seven years of age present a subpopulation at increased risk to the adverse
effects of lead exposure. Within this population subgroup, it has been well demonstra J that African-
Americans, particularly in lower socio-economic situations, are a subpopulation group at even greater risic.
Hispanic children may also be at higher risk. The reasons for a dissimilarity between white and African-
Pndect LEAP— Pbs.e 1 Summary Repcrt 2

-------
American children are unclear. It is clear, however, that the difference is seen at all socioeconomic levels.
Measurements and projections of blood-lead levels for African-American children consistently reflect
elevated blood-lead levels.
Reports from the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, based upon data from
1976 to 1980, illustrates the substantial difference in blood-lead prevalence levels based upon ethnicity.
Among African-American children six months to five years of age, only 2.5percent of African-American
children, compared to 14.5 percent of white children, had blood-lead levels less than 10 .tg/dL 1 . For
families with an annual family income < $6,000, 18.5 percent of African-American children, contrasted
to only 5.9 percent of white children, exceeded 30 g/dL (children aged six months to five years). The
percentage was 10.9 percent exceeding 30 p.g/dL for all races. For that same age group, the geometric
mean blood-lead level was 19.6 p.g/dL for African-American children, 14 .tg/dL for white children, and
14.9 g/dL for all races. Although complete data are not available for children of Hispanic origin, the
Agency for Toxic Substances Disease Registry postulates that it is reasonable to assume that the
association between high blood-lead levels and lower socioeconomic income status would hold true for
this population as well. Hispanic children, accordingly, may also be at elevated risk.
As research continues, the level of blood-lead concentration of concern continues to be lowered.
More and more studies add to the weight of evidence for health effects in children at levels previously
thought to be safe. The fact that lead is a transplacental contaminant is even more alarming because
internal exposure can begin in the fetus. The exposure can continue to contribute to body tissue burden
of the young child if the child is subsequently brought into a lead-contaminated environment. A
significant evolving concern is that many of the effects of low-level lead exposure are not readily
observable in the individual child, unlike physical manifestations caused by acute lead poisoning. Acute
(observable) effects are usually associated with lead-based paint Health effects are generally ascertained
‘The reader is referred to the complete report for referenora.
PrqJeet LE P— Pbae 1 Summary Report 3

-------
not through clinical diagnosis of the individual patient, but rather through epidemiologic study of large
groups of children already suffering from the chronic effects of lead exposure. These chronic effects are
generally not observed in the individual child. Effects may include lower intelligence and other
neuropsychologic deficits, hearing impairment, stunted growth, reduction in attention span, and other
reported health impacts. Some studies suggest the lack of a threshold. This is extremely problematic.
Even though acute poisoning and exposure have been recognized, generally associated with lead-based
paint contamination, chronic exposure and effects caused by low-level lead exposure in the environment
are difficult to recognize.
This nation has experienced a tremendous reduction in lead emitted into the environment by the
phase down of lead in gasoline. The reduction has been paralleled by a significant concomitant reduction
of the average blood-lead levels in this country. Lead, however, remains pervasive in our environment.
It is in the homes of lens of millions of families and serves as a continuous source of contamination and
exposure via lead paint. Lead remains in some sources of drinking water in the home. It remains in soil
and dust, caused potentially by both exterior and interior lead-based paint, as well as historical or ongoing
deposition from mobile sources of nearby industry. Even the nation’s food supply still contains some lead,
albeit in small quantity. The aggregate effect from multiple sources, in a specific geographic area, may
be sufficient to cause concern.
The major objective of this research is to examine environmental sources of lead that may be
linked to chronic health effects in young children. In particular, such effects may be exacerbated by an
aggregation of low-level environmental exposures so lead and lead compounds that result from multiple
pathways of exposure. The research effort does not account for the direct effects of lead-based paint
consumption. The methodology does lake into account the indirect contribution to exposure from lead-
based paint via lead-contaminated soil and dust It is recognized, nevertheless, that lead-based paint
provides the largest contribution to elevated blood-lead levels. This is particularly the case for acute lead-
PrqJ.ct LEAP— Phase I Summary Report 4

-------
poisoning events. This effort, however, is to assess the extent to which low-level environmental sources
of lead may also contribute to elevated blood-lead levels. It constitutes the first phase of Project LEAP:
analysis of existing ŕnvironmental data pursuant to a comparative risk analysis of childhood exposure to
lead for the study cities. The goal is to discern a logical direction for future lead reduction efforts. Phases
2 and 3 will follow, to address lead testing and remediation, respectively.
This report documents the development of a management tool to identify and prioritize geographic
areas having children with elevated environmental exposures to lead which may constitute a health risk
to young children. The methodology explores the application of an Uptake Biokinetic Model, developed
by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for site specific application, on a much larger scale than
its original design and intent.
Methodolo2y
The ultimate objective was to estimate the probability distribution of blood-lead in childhood
populations, and then to compare geographic areas to judge the relative severity of the problem. For each
metropolitan statistical central city area, environmental data was obtained for the major sources/routes of
exposure, including point source air facilities, municipal waste combusters as a special case categorical
air source, ambient air quality measurements, drinking water supplies, and operating as well as abandoned
hazardous waste sites. Where available, the study used actual concentrations. Default values were
established for each environmental medium where actual measurements had not been taken. Sensitivity
analyses were conducted to assess the impact of assumed (default) values on the blood-lead uptake
estimate. Air concentrations associated with major air sources were derived from modeling source
emissions. This modeled data, however, was not used in the calculations, but rather was addressed in a
qualitative analysis.
Demographic information was obtained from a geographic information systems application
(derived and provided by the Geographic Information Systems Management Office, Region 5, U.S. EPA).
Pri j.ct LEAP— ?h 1 Summax7 Report

-------
That office provided information at the census tract or community area (aggregation of census tract) levels
for each city. In general, a census tract has a population of about 4,000 people. Environmental data (i.e.,
media concentrations) associated with each tract were provided in order to calculate blood-lead level
distributions in affected populations.
Based upon environmental concentrations (ambient air, drinking water, soil, and dust) for each
census tract/community area, the Uptake Biokinetic Model was run to calculate an expected percent
exceedance for the pertinent area. The percentage, applied against the population data for the tract,
provided an estimate of the relative number of children under seven years of age, potentially at risk.
Further aggregations allowed for a community area total, from which a numerical ranking was derived.
The project selected data from a single geographical area, Minneapolis/St. Paul,Minnesota, to test
the validity of the approach. That area had measured blood-lead levels available, along with pertinent
demographic information. Two statistical procedures were performed. A simple correlation analysis was
conducted to see whether there was a relationship between modeled blood-lead levels— based primarily
upon the environmental data developed using the approach— and actual blood-lead levels. An association
would indicate the viability of the approach in comparing cities.
Results
An analysis of environmental data indicates that we are still releasing a tremendous quantity of
lead into the environment. Typically, a small (relative) number of sources contribute an overwhelming
amount of the contaminant. Nevertheless, air quality, based upon measurements of the ambient air, is
excellent. There are few exceedauces of the primary air quality standard for lead. Point sources of
emissions, although many in number, generally do not cause concerns (a measurable increase in the
ambient air quality), except for a few high emitting industries. For those industries, increased ambient
air concentration, as modeled, is expected close to the source. Drinking water supplies are also typically
safe, although exposure does continue in some communities. Violations of the drinking water standard,
Prqj.ct LEAP— Pbs .. 1 Summary Report 6

-------
in study area communities, are rare.
Exposure through soil and dust, associated with operating and abandoned hazardous waste sites,
potentially occurs in a few cities. The majority of sites, however, are located beyond the boundaries of
the central cities assessed and, consequently, do not generally pose a threat.
Environmental Data Qualitative Summary Results
Table I presents a qualitative summary of potential routes of exposure to lead from environmental
sources, for the 83 MSA cities. A positive indication for a categorical source for a particular city does
not imply violations of an environmental standard, or there is necessarily an urgent public health concern
caused by sources via the indicated medium. It does mean that, based upon current information, the
potential for a problem exists. One can only reach more definitive conclusions, in most instances, after
on-site measurements are done.
PruJ.ct LEAP— Pha.e I Swnaary Riport 7

-------
TABLE I
Qualitative Summary of Environmental Exposures 2
to Lead for MSA Cities in 1988
.
TOLaI No
No ol
:.‘ :
No of
No of
No of
Superfund
Sites
Ambient
Air
0.2 g/m
Dnnking
Water>
4 g/1
of Ai
concerns
Aw
Sources
: RQ A•
ca lhf
Undfill
PacIIities
Island
._______
—
1
1
1
If
.
Louis 1
1
7
11.4’
1’
1
1
10
1
4
2
+1
a
1
1
1
‘ s
3
1
,,
. ,
Elkhiirt
2 Air point source (in or proximate to city), RCRA facility, Landfill Facility, and Superfund facility numbers
indicate facilities with potential to use exposure to humans. Ambient air and drinking water exceeclances pertain
to the UBK model default values.
PrqJect LEAP— Pb .. 1 Summary Report 8

-------
City Total No.
of Ai
Concerns
No.01
Air Point
Sources
No. of
RCRA
Facilities
No. of
L u dflU
Fa thties
No. of
Superfund
‘,iu.s
Ambient

02 g/m
Drinking
Water>
4 g1i
Goshen
Ft. Wayne
LaFayette
Kokomo
Anderson
Muncie
Indianapolis
3
j ’
,,
Terre Haute
Bloomington
Evansville
New Albany
TotalState
at india
8
.
3
.:: :• : .
z
.: .“:
3
.: : ::.:.‘:
-
•.:.:::.:...::.. ..:...:..:.:.....
. ::::.:.::... -
Saginaw
Bay City
Midland
Muskegon
Grand Rapids
Lansing
1
1
East Lansing
Flint
Detroit
1
S
Ann Mbor
Battle Creek
Jackson
Kalamazoo
Benton Harbor
Ibt 1S w
of
2
‘ -
- -: -: -:-. -
i
- >
-
i
‘
-
ELLILLL
•
Prqj.ct LFAP— Phase 1 Swumary Report 9

-------
. Total No
Of A a
Concerns
.
No. of:
A k Point
Sources
.L. ? o.of
RCA
Facliuties,
.
.. No of

; 1 acfflUes
No. of

: SIteS
Ambient
.. :. >
0.2 .tg/m’
Drinking
Water>
41 .Lgfl
1
1
1
/
Z
a
,
1
,‘
1
.
‘I
1
/
2
/
1
1
/
.

.
3

6
2
1
:
• ..:
Prqj.ct LEAP— Phe 1 Summary Report 10

-------
C u 1 Total No
of Ares
Concerns
No of
Air Point
Sources
No of
RCRA
facilities
No of
Undf ifl
aciliUes
No of
Superf’w d
:.:. Sites
Auib1C t
Mr
E) 2 ig/m
Drinking
Waler>
4 tgf1
Wausau
1
f
Green Bay
Oshkosh
Neenah
1
Milwaukee
1
Racine
Kenosha
Madison
1
j
Janesvillc
1
/
Beloit
Lacrosse
Shcboygan
1
1
Appleton
TotalSt4te
o Wh X,flsjn
‘
1
..
•
:
4
:• :
IbtalSix
States
33
. .
10

4
:: :: ::
5
.. .:. .
2
:
5
. . . .:
7
.
Uptake Biokinetic (UBK) Model City Results
Based upon all of the environmental data collected and the demographic information provided, the study
derived the numbers of children expected to exceed 10 tg/dL by census tract or community area for each MSA city.
The exceedance percentages were applied to the demographic information to estimate the numbers of children at risk
In the census area. The project estimates the number of newborns based upon the birth rate for the city and the total
population in the census area. Table II shows the results.
Project LEAP— Pha.. 1 Summary Report 11

-------
TABLE II
Numbers of Children Under 7 Years of Age in the Midwest
Expected to Exceed 10 .tg/dL Blood-Lead Level in 1988
aty ChUdhood
Total No
Afnc n-
Hspao2c
Population

Exceeth
. .
Mnencan
Ex xcdtng
Exceeding
::
Rock Island
4,910
461
103
17
Moline
4,379
434
—
5
—
37
Cbi go
321,585
40,370
18,712
7,888
Kankakec
3,461
289
87
3
Peoria
13,368
1,306
354
24
Bloomington
4,362
330
21
5
Normal
2,430
26
2
0
Champaign
3,979
168
34
2
Urbana
2,359
154
10
3
Rantoul
N/A 3
Springfield
9,716
554
76
4
E. St. Louis
8,127
798
768
8
Granite CIty
3,726
273
4
5
Rockford
14,406
965
198
38
Ibtal Stifle
fflhInois
396,809
20 , 375
8,034
Gary
20,855
831
652
69
Hammond
10,522
1,059
92
100
E. Qd go
5,073
660
189
275
South Bcnd
11,441
1,084
207
26
Mishawaka
4,149
225
2
2
Elkhnrt
4,616
464
97
7
‘N/A not available. Data was not available for these dti .
4 Perccntagc of total population. Numbers are based upon ambient air, drinking water, and derived soil and dust
lead concentrations used in the Uptake Bickinctic Model.
PrQJ.ct LEAP— Phase 1 Summai7 Report 12

-------
City Childhood
Population
Total No
Excccdtng
African
Ainencan
Exceeding
Thsptmic
Exceeding
Goshen
Ft. Wayne
18,910
1,780
414
55
LaFayette
4,146
243
5
3
Kokomo
5,437
401
27
6
Anderson
6,707
502
110
3
Muncie
6,822
522
56
4
napolis
73,868
5,223
1,740
52
Terre Haute
5,250
797
71
6
Bloomington
2,775
141
7
2
Evansville
12,444
1,248
135
7
NewAlbany
3,598
258
13
2
Total Sute
afindlana
Saginaw
196,612
15,439
(8%)
935
811
619
9,943
- 348
92
Bay City
4,358
564
10
27
Midland
3,834
45
1
1
Muskegon
4,741
603
135
18
Grand Rapids
2o,o64
1,942
Lansing
15,251
955
128
75
East LansIng
2,531
115
7
2
Flint
19,923
1,446
581
38
Detroit
134,680
19,142
12,409
555
Ann Arbor
7,819
381
38
9
Battle Creek
4,150
569
129
12
Jackson
4,588
748
119
15
Kalamazoo
7,323
777
181
17
Benton Harbor
N/A
.::: :r :.::
Tht*1 State
orMlcthgan
239,205
28225
(12 %)
:: .
14 ,57
,
961
Prqj.ct LEAP-- Phase 1 Summary Report 13

-------
.
Childhood
Popu1at on
: .•:. .. . ..
.
Total No
Lxccedmg

Afr ican
Amcncan
1Ii parnc
Bxccedrng
.
2,401
61
0
1
8,299
1,284
9
5
3,577
206
1
1
29,884
4,611
379
59
25,357
3,333
194
97
5,774
237
1
2
75292
9,1 2
(i3 %)
584
165
38,143
4,515
1,157
182
61,289
9,396
4,022
360
23,644
3,161
694
20
8,962
465
53
70
9,739
1,342
264
18
2,002
160
25
1
N/A
N/A
.
11,968
1,884
673
64
5,742
437
69
3
7,180
688
90
7
5,972
550
116
6
22,426
2,206
688
17
7,745
914
175
7
2,968
432
110
5
7,217
728
77
6
4,467
281
31
1
38 829
5,415
1,939
3l3,139
35,797
t l,165
8 7
Y’
(11%)
4,250
247
— 1
1
Prqject LEAP— Phase 1 Summary Report 14

-------
City Total N
•
African-
: .: : .. A1TLC iCan
Hispanic
.:: ...:.: .E*ceediog:
Wausau
3,017
284
0
1
Green Bay
9,058
483
1
4
Oshkosh
3,992
388
2
2
Neenab
N/A
Milwaukee
67,871
13,878
4,22.5
781
Racine
9,626
819
130
56
Kenosha
7,927
494
19
22
Madison
12,294
759
21
11
Jancsvil le
5,655
263
0
1
Beloit
3,982
421
63
5
LaCrosse
3,341
404
1
2
Sheboygan
4,810
443
1
8
Appleton
6,251
286
0
2
Total State
at W1s otsln
138,77
18,767

4)465
894
‘Ebtal Six
S tate

1,35 9,8
tS4,( 9
(113%)
55,247

. . ..... . • . .: .... . . .•• .: .•:
1 1,S13
. ..•
.
•:.:
The highest percentages of children exceeding 10 .tg/dL Pb-B in Illinois were derived for Chicago,
where the majority of census areas were in double digit percentages, with many in the 15 to 19 percent
range. The maximum value was 19 percent. A majority of the total number of children exceeding 10
.tg/dL in many of the communities were African-American and Hispanic, reflecting the racial makeup of
the neighborhoods. This factor also gives rise to the large number of children under seven years of age
at risk of exposure to lead. The high exposure potential reflects primarily soil and dust concentrations
(based upon housing stock age). Drinking water and air concentration values in the city were low.
Two areas in East St. Louis also had high numbers of African-American children with expected
PniJect L J’— Phaie 1 Summary Report 15

-------
exceedances, although the percentages were not high at 11 and 12 percent (597 and 100 African-American
children, respectively). Granite City, an area with widespread soil and dust contamination resulting from
industrial operations in the city, had an average of 7 percent exceedances using the methodology. The
relative small numbers for African-American and Hispanic children reflect the low population
concentrations of these two ethnic groups in Granite City. It is clear that the study approach
underestimates the risk in Granite City, however, by not using the higher actual soil and dust
concentrations that are currently being determined. One area in Peoria is notable, with a 15 percent
exceedance estimate corresponding to 224 African-American and 13 Hispanic children. No other Illinois
city was notable for large numbers of African-American or Hispanic children under seven years of age,
expected to exceed 10 tg/dL Pb-B.
Compared to other states in the Midwest, the community areas of most cities in Indiana have low
percentile values for expected exceedances, and low numbers of potentially exposed African-American and
Hispanic childhood populations. This is due to not only generally low derived-exceedance-percentages,
but also to smaller city populations and relatively low population density for both minority ethnic groups.
Five cities, East Chicago, Evansville, Ft. Wayne, Indianapolis,. and Terre Haute, had community areas in
the 15 to 19 percent range. The largest numbers of African-American and Hispanic children with expected
exceedances of 10 p g/dL Pb-B were in Indianapolis, with 1,740 and 52 children, respectively, followed
in quantitative rank by Gary, with 652 and 69 children, respectively. This ranking is generally indicative
of the relatively large population size of these two cities. It is noted, in particular, that the community
area percentages for the Qty of Gary were all less than 10 percent.
Detroit closely resembles Chicago in having a number of areas with expected percentages ranging
from 15 to 20 percent, with corresponding high numbers of African-American and Hispanic children
reflecting the ethnic makeup of the communities. A total of 19,142 children, including 12,409 African-
American and 556 Hispanic children, are the expected exceedance numbers. For other State of Michigan
Project LEAP— Phase 1 Summary Report 16

-------
cities, aside from Detroit, community areas in Ann Arbor, Battle Creek, Flint, Jackson, and Kalamazoo
had percentile values in the 15 to 19 percent range. None of these areas, however, had very high numbers
of African-American or Hispanic children with expected exceedances of 10 p.g/dL Pb-B.
As expected, for the State of Minnesota, both the highest percentages and the greatest number of
African-American and Hispanic children with exceedances were derived for Minneapolis and St. Paul.
The Twin Cities expected numbers of African-American and Hispanic children with exceedances were,
respectively, 379 and 59 for Minneapolis, and 194 and 97 for St. Paul. For the State of Minnesota, only
Duluth, aside from the Twin Cities, had community areas with percentile ranges of 15 to 18 percent.
The community area in Ohio with the largest expected exceedance percentile was located in the
City of Toledo, with a value of 20 percent, corresponding to 431 African-American and 45 Hispanic
children expected to exceed 10 tg/dL Pb-B. For the city as a whole, 1,157 African-American and 182
Hispanic children are expected to exceed 10 ptg/dL Pb-B. Two cities in Ohio have higher numbers of
children with exceedances. aeveland’s numbers are 4,022 African-American children and 360 Hispanic
children, and Cincinnati’s numbers are 1934 and 41, respectively. Although several other cities had
community areas with percentage values in the 15 to 19 percent range, the only other city with more than
1,000 children potentially exceeding the criterion value was Columbus, with 1,094 African-American and
33 Hispanic children. For the State of Ohio, the highest percentile of 23 percent was derived for a low
population density community area in Youngstown.
Wisconsin is set apart somewhat from the other states and community areas by having several
communities with levels of lead in drinking water at measured levels, above the level of detection. This
factor, combined with soil and dust concentrations associated with older housing stock, resulted in the
higher estimates of exceedance for four Wisconsin cities.
On a community total basis, Milwaukee is high both in percentile (20 percent) and in numbers
(13,878 total, including 4,225 African-American and 781 Hispanic children). Several areas were in the
Pr J.ct LEAJ — Phase 1 Summary Report 17

-------
28 to 30 percent range, making the city the highest overall of all cities assessed, and resulting in large
estimated numbers of children with exceedances. Milwaukee’s drinking water concentration also measured
comparatively high, at 25 ppb for 1988. Aside from estimated percentages of 17 percent for areas in both
La Crosse and Racine, neither the percentiles nor the numbers of African-American and Hispanic children
exceedances were exceptional for all other communities in Wisconsin.
Seven cities are in the top 10 by virtue of both overall percent exceeding and number of children
exceeding 10 tg/dL Those cities are Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Detroit, Michigan; Minneapolis and St. Paul,
Minnesota; and Cincinnati, Akron, and Cleveland, Ohio. The top 10 cities, by percentile and total number
of children, are shown in TABLES III and IV, respectively.
TABLE III
Top Ranked Cities by Percentile
of Children Exceeding 10 tg/dL Pb-B
City Expected Total No
of rhikiren
Lxpe& tcd No ol
Afrkaa Amencan
Expected No or
Hspamc
1 Years
Children <7Yeat
Children <7 Years
1
Milwaukee, WI
20.4
13,878
4,225
781
2
Jackson,MI
16.3
748
118
15
3
Duluth, MN
15.5
1,284
9
5
4
Minneapolis, MN
15.5
4,611
379
59
5
Cleveland, OH
15.3
9,396
4,022
360
6
Terre Haute, IN
15.2
797
71
6
7
DetroIt, MI
14.2
19,142
12,409
556
8
Cindnnati, OH
13.9
5,415
1,934
41
9
1
Battle Creek, MI
AkrOn,OH
13.7
13.4
569
3,161
129
694
11
20
0
—
.
Prqject LEAP— Phase 1 Summary Report 18

-------
TABLE IV
Top Ranked Cities by Number of
Children Exceeding 10 tgJdL Pb-B
..
City %
Expected Thtal No.
of Children
.
.:.i. Expec*ed No. of
: MAnierk
mT
Expected No. of
H lspank
...
•7*
. Ctiik1ren<1Years
Child r en ?Ycars
1
Chk go, IL
13
40,370
18,712
7,888
2
Detroit, MI
14
19,142
12,409
555
3
Milwaukee, WI
20
13,878
4,225
781
4
Cleveland, OH
15
9,396
4,022
360
5
Cincinnati, OH
13
5,415
1,939
41
6
Indianapolis, IN
7
5,223
1,740
52
7
Minneapolis, MN
15
4,611
379
59
8
Toledo, OH
12
4,515
1,157
182
9
1
St. Paul, MN
Akron,OH
13
85
3,333
3,161
194
694
97
20
0
—
—__-
The six Midwest states ranged from 8 percent exceedance estimates in Indiana to 13 percent in
Minnesota, although it is noted that these percentages are not particularly meaningful at the state level.
The States of Illinois and Michigan had the largest numbers of African-American and Hispanic children
under seven years of age expected to exceed 10 tgfdL Pb-B, including 28,000 and 16,000 minority
children, in the respective states. Every state has community areas where elevated blood-lead levels are
of concern.
For the six states, all cities combined, the total childhood population (children under seven years
of age) was 1,359,000 in 1988. The analysis indicates that 154,000 children, or 11 percent of the total,
would have blood-lead levels exceeding 10 itWdL This includes 55,000 African-American and 12,000
Prqj.ct LEAP— Phais 1 Summary R p0it 19

-------
Hispanic children. These numbers are presented for illustrative purposes, and are not a prediction of
numbers of children. It is noted, however, that these numbers are conservative compared to other
estimates.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Environmental Information
Soil and dust are the most important determinants of modeled Pb-B levels. There is minimal
information, however, about the extent of lead contamination caused by operating and abandoned
hazardous waste facilities that could cause such contamination. The EPA has not conducted off-site soil,
dust, and air sampling for lead at most sites. Nonetheless, there should be a relatively small number of
residents potentially exposed. Except for East St. Louis, Illinois, Granite City, Illinois, and Lansing,
Michigan, this category of sources does not appear to warrant significant concern for most areas.
Extensive sampling, however, around each site, would be required to make a definitive finding. Unless
there is strong indication of contamination, however, such sampling is not generally thought to be prudent
of cost effective.
Recommendation: Investigate further hazardous waste sites in Granite City, Illinois, East St.
Louis, Illinois, Lansing, Michigan, and any city where a site falls within an area with large numbers of
children expected to exceed 10 .tg/dL blood-lead. Complete the remedial design work for the
NLlTaracorp Corp. site in Granite City, Illinois, pursuant to on-site abatement and replacement of
contaminated soil in a 55 square block residential area.
Major air sources are of concern only for residences close to the emission source. Municipal
waste combusters do not constitute a serious concern, although more information is required for that
judgment. Modeling of the air sources did not add value to the analysis, aside from confirming the lack
of wide-spread impact.
Recommendation: Review major sources with (relatively) high modeled air values to ensure
Project LEAP— Phee. 1 Suinmuy Report 20

-------
nearby residents are not exposed to excessive air-lead concentrations.
The ambient air, drinking water supply, and toxic release inventory data were useful in
development of the approach and, for the former two data bases, for derivation of blood-lead values.
Statistical Analysis
One would expect to find a stronger relationship between distance and the actual blood-lead
measurements only if there were a strong association between soil concentration and distance from a major
highway. That association, although statistically significant, was weak. The conclusion is that, for the
population, the distance from a major highway does not relate to actual blood-lead levels (or soil
concentrations). Consequently, other factors (e.g., lead-based paint) appear to contribute more to the
elevated Pb-B found in the survey. It is noted, however, that the average distance from the census tracts
to an interstate is greater than one kilometer. The maximum distance exceeds five kilometers.
Accordingly, most of the children are probably too far away, luckily, to be exposed to mobile source route
lead emissions. We must note that this result is specific solely to the Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota
area, for which data were analyzed. Further, the analyzed data were not originally developed to assess
the impact of mobile sources. Consequently, caution is necessary in the interpretation of the finding.
UBK City Results
Central city residents are subject to low-level exposure of environmental sources of lead, and
exposure levels differ amongst the cities. The cities with the greatest number of children potentially at
risk include the largest Cities in the six-state area, including Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Qeveland.
Although soil and dust predominate as sources of lead contamination, drinking water quality contributes
in a handful of cities.
Recommendajion: Select areas within the top 10 cities with the highest numbers of children at
risk. Conduct on-site sampling and investigation to determine the actual extent of residential lead
contamination.
[ ZAP— Phi.. 1 SuJnmaL7 Report 21

-------
Recommendation: Develop and implement a public outreach and awareness strategy, pertinent to
African-American and Hispanic communities, in particular, but inclusive of any population at high risk
of exposure, in selected cities.
Recommendation: Determine the current drinking water lead concentrations for Wausau, Eau
Claire, Milwaukee, and Madison, Wisconsin, and Youngstown, Ohio. Evaluate the results to ensure
compliance with the current drinking water supply standard for lead.
Recommendation: Start preliminary investigations in East St. Louis, Illinois.
Recommendation: Work with public health departments to coordinate outreach and education
efforts to targeted communities.
Recommendation: Obtain results of stack test information, when available, for the Chicago,
Illinois, North Montgomery County, Ohio, and South Montgomery County, Ohio, municipal waste
incinerators. Evaluate the results to ensure that lead emissions do not pose an unacceptable risk to local
residents.
Recommendation: Begin coordination with the newly created Regional Lead Center.
UBK Model and Algorithm Validity
An inability to account for ethnicity and socioeconomic status resulted in an underestimate of the
at-risk population in lower socioeconomic minority communities. Nevertheless, the approach is considered
to be valid, even though there was only a weak correlation between Pb-B modeled and Pb-B measured.
A fundamental factor of the analysis is that the UBK model used to derive modeled blood-lead levels is
not, nor was it intended to be, applicable and appropriate for use to discern a blood-lead level for an
individual child. The model is appropriate for estimating the affects on populations of children. That is
the precise use for which the algorithm uses the UBK model. Consequently, although not useful as a
verification step of the approach using a correlation model, the model is useful in assessing population
risk. Consequently, its use in this population comparative risk analysis is appropriate. Accordingly, the
Prqfret LEAP— Phase 1 Summary Report 22

-------
approach should prove to be useful in identifying “hot spot” locations where numbers of children are at
higher relative risk.
Recommendation: Repeat the approach for other EPA regions and states, or in areas where
targeting is desired to rank, prioritize, and better characterize the numbers and extent of at risk minority
populations, due to exposure to lead. Account for abandoned and operating waste sites, municipal waste
combusters, and stationary sources of air emissions by location. Follow-up facilities located within a high
percentage exceedance area, as identified via the approach.
Recommendation: Include paint contribution (using procedures as derived for soil and dust based
upon age of housing stock) in the model to better estimate expected blood-lead values. This would base
derived values upon better knowledge of the association of lead-based paint contributions to daily intake,
with housing age.
PmJset LEAP— Phase 1 Summary Report

-------