EPA -600/5-75-002
JANUARY 1975
Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
iecondary Impacts of Transportation
And Wastewater Investments:
Review And Bibliography
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into five series. These five broad
categories were established to facilitate further development and appli-
cation of environmental technology. Elimination of traditional grouping
was consciously planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum inter-
face in related fields. The five series are:
1. Environmental Health Effects Research
2. Environmental Protection Technology
3. Ecological Research
4. Environmental Monitoring
5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
This report has been assigned to the SOCIOECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
series. This series includes research on environmental management,
economic analysis, ecological impacts, comprehensive planning and fore-
casting and analysis methodologies. Included are tools for determiniag
varying impacts of alternative policies, analyses of environmental plan-
ning techniques at the regional, state and local levels, and approaches
to measuring environmental quality perceptions, as well as analysis of
ecological and economic impacts of environmental protection measures.
Such topics as urban form, industrial mix, growth policies, control and
organizational structure are discussed in terms of optimal environmental
performance. These interdisciplinary studies and systems analyses are
presented in forms varying from quantitative relational analyses to
management and policy-oriented reports.
REVIEW NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the sponsoring agencies - The
Council on Environmental Quality, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - and approved
for publication.
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EPA 600/5-75-002
January 1975
SECONDARY IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION AND WASTEWATER
INVESTMENTS: REVIEW AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
by
S. E. Bascom
K. G. Cooper
M. P. Howell
A. C. Makrides
F. ?'. Rabe
INTER-AGENCY AGREEMENT NO. EPA-IAG-148(D)
PROGRAM ELEMENT NO. 1HA095
ROAP 21ART, Task 11
Project Officers
Edwin H. Clark, Council on Environmental Quality
James Hoben, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Office of Policy Development
and Research Staff
D. Robert Scherer, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ecological Impact Analysis Staff
Washington Environmental Research Center
Prepared for
Executive Office of the President
COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
Washington, D.C. 20006
Office of Policy Development and Research
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT
Washington, D.C. 20413
Office of Research and Development
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Washington, D.C. 20460
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Foreword
The widespread use of environmental impact analysis as a means
of achieving Federal agency decision-making responsive to environmental
concerns was initiated by the passage of the National Environmental
Policy Act of 1969. The Act requires that Federal agencies prepare
statements assessing the environmental impact of their major actions
significantly affecting the quality of the human environment and
indicates a broad range of aspects of the environment to be surveyed.
The Council on Environmental Quality in guidelines for the preparation
of environmental impact statements, dated August 1, 1973, states that
many major Federal actions, in particular those that involve the
construction or licensing of infrastructure investments such as high-
ways and sewer systems "... stimulate or induce secondary effects
in the form of associated investments and changed patterns of social
and economic activities." Such secondary effects may in turn produce
secondary environmental impacts even more substantial than the primary
environmental impacts of the original action itself. The influence
of highways on development decisions has been extensively researched.
It appears that new sewer facilities are becoming increasingly more
predominant in determining where development will occur, and this
relationship has been much less investigated.
During the last eighteen months, the Council on Environmental
Quality, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development have sponsored a study of
the secondary effects of these two important types of public invest-
ments which stimulate land development - land transportation systems
and wastewater collection and treatment systems.
The first part of the study, reported in this publication,
involved a comprehensive review of previous research and literature
dealing with the impacts of highways, mass transit, and sewers on
residential, commercial and industrial development. The second.part
of the study involves the development of the tools which may be -
utilized by a variety of professionals, technicians, and laypersons
in estimating land use development which may be expected to be stimu-
lated by new land transportation and sewerage facilities. The resul^"
of this latter effort are expected to be published by the Council on /'
Environmental Quality.
ii
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The project is being conducted by the Environmental Impact
Center, 55 Chapel Street, Newton, Massachusetts, 02158 under the
directorship of Dr. A. C. Makrides. The work was co-sponsored by
the Ecological Impact Analysis Staff, Washington Environmental
Research Center, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency; the Office
of Policy Development and Research, U. S. Department of Housing
and Urban Development; the Council on Environmental Quality. EPA is
publishing this document in an effort to make the study results more
widely available in order to improve the analysis of secondary effects,
and to stimulate further research on this most important issue.
tTyf-
f>'
Edwin B. Royce
Director, Ecological Impact Analysis Staff
Washington Environmental Research Center
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
iii
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Abstract
The Bibliography contains a review of over fifty major studies
and three hundred relevant reports related to secondary environmental
impacts on various forms of public investments, e.g. land based trans-
portation and wastewater treatment and collection systems. The
Bibliography is organized into four sections:
Section I is subdivided into: (a) a review of secondary impacts
classified according to type of investment (highways, mass transit,
and wastewater treatment systems): (b) where possible, according
to type of secondary effect (economic, social and land use); and
(c) a brief summary of modeling techniques which may be utilized to
analyze and project likely secondary environmental impacts.
Section II condenses the findings of about fifty major studies re-
lated to land transportation and wastewater treatment systems.
Section III is an annotated bibliography of about three hundred
relevant studies.
Section IV classifies these literature studies by: (a) impact; (b)
investment type; (c) geographic area examined; (d) type of study;
and (e) type of analytic techniques used in assessing secondary
effects.
iv
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Preface
In the autumn of 1912, the Office of Public Roads summarized the
findings of a definitive study, the full text of which was never
released, on the advantages to farmers of better roads (1). The
publication helped overcome rural opposition to a national road
building program and hasten federal aid for roads under Congressional
Acts in 1913 and 1916. The preface to the summary is worth quoting:
So intimately are the public highways connected with every
aspect of community life that almost any method devised to
measure the benefits of good roads is incomplete. It is
apparent, however, to anyone who has studied road matters
for a period of years that the advantages of improved roads
have been repeatedly proved beyond all argument. There is
no case on record where any community has ever regretted
the improvement of its roads .... When the various ways
in which good roads benefit a community are examined, a com-
plex situation is found in which many actions and reactions
take place. When good roads reduce the cost of hauling,
adjacent land becomes more valuable; there is a corresponding
tendency of population to increase; and, in its turn, this
tendency strengthens the demand for more good roads; social
conditions improve; and the life of the community is
influenced in numerous ways.
The summary gave a long list of potential benefits. As Reinsberg
(1) points out, few of these were realized in any form resembling
original expectations. However, notwithstanding these and other
disappointments, it would be unjust not to acknowledge the long term
highway benefits which were not illusory. "The expectation that
farmers 'with the labor-saving devices and good roads could make a
living on the farm without drudgery . . . and that they could enjoy
some of the fruits of life besides making money on the farm1 was
amply fulfilled. Suburbanization was in some measure a realization
of the hope, expressed in 1903, that 'good roads would carry the town
to the country and the country to the town, preserving the blessings
of both'" (1).
The impact of roads, and of other major public investments, has
remained controversial since the pioneering study of 1912. Our under-
standing of the issues has undoubtedly improved, but basic problems
remain unresolved (2)(5). This state of .affairs is in part testimony
to the difficulty of assessing accurately social and economic effects
of major public projects. It is also a reflection of special
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circumstances surrounding research in this field. Traditionally,
economists and social scientists have considered transfer of benefits
in broad terms; accordingly, little research was done on localized
impacts. Agency planners were concerned primarily with fulfilling
public needs perceived in engineering terms. Studies carried out
over the intervening years reflect these attitudes. The majority
of impact studies were commissioned by agencies responsible for
development; some of these studies come dangerously close to special
pleading.
Despite such shortcomings, the results of impact studies carried
out over the last few decades, particularly in the 50"s and 60's, are
still useful today. The main findings of previous work are summarized
in the pages to follow. The contents of over fifty publications are
also presented in condensed form. These studies were particularly
helpful to us during the course of a project aimed at quantifying,
to the extent possible, social and economic impacts of major facilities.
vi
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Table of Contents
Page
FOREWORD ii
ABSTRACT iv
PREFACE v
TABLE OF CONTENTS vii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS x
SECTION 1; SECONDARY IMPACTS OF HIGHWAY^ MASS
TRANSIT, AND INTERCEPTOR SEWERS -
A REVIEW 1
Introduction 2
I. Highways 3
A. Economic Impacts 3
1. Geographic Distribution 3
2. Business Location in Relation
to Highways 4
3. Highway Impacts on Cities 6
B. Social Impacts 8
C. Land Use and Values 10
1. Land Use 10
2. Land Values 11
II. Mass Transit 12
1. Economic Impacts 13
2. Land Use and Values 14
III. Wastewater Facilities 15
A. Business Location in Relation to Sewers 15
1. Industry 15
2. Commerce 16
B. Residential Location in Relation
to Sewers 17
1. Residential Growth in Relation to
Sewer Investments 17
2. Single-Family Housing 20
3. Multi-Family Housing 21
C. General Land Use Effects 22
vii
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Table of Contents (Continued
Page
IV. Modeling Techniques 24
1. Protective Equations 24
2. Partial Models 25
3. Holistic Models 31
4. General Discussion 35
References 36
SECTION 2: SELECTED STUDIES 39
I. Highways 40
A. Economic Activity and Industrial Location 40
B. Social and Demographic Impacts 97
C. Land Use and Land Value 103
II. Mass Transit 123
III. Wastewater Facilities 132
IV. Modeling Techniques 139
SECTION 3: ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 166
"I. Highways 167
A. Economic 167
B. Social and Demographic 183
C. Land Use and Land Value 193
D. Political and Legal 205
II. Mass Transit 210
III. Wastewater Facilities 221
IV. Models 224
viii
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Table of Contents (Continued)
Page
SECTION 4; CLASSIFIED BIBLIOGRAPHY 235
I. Highways 236
A. Economic 236
B. Social and Demographic 246
C. Land Use and Land Value 252
D. Political and Legal 259
II. Mass Transit 262
III. Wastewater Facilities 269
IV. Models 271
ix
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Acknowledgments
The authors wish to acknowledge the support and cooperation
received from the many Council on Environmental Quality, U.S.
Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency staffs and those local/state public officials/staffs who
were so genero.us with their time and provided so much of the
information during the performance of this study.
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SECTION 1
SECONDARY IMPACTS OF HIGHWAYS, MASS TRANSIT, AND
INTERCEPTOR SEWERS - A REVIEW
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Introduction
Three broad categories are commonly used in analyzing secondary
effects: economic change, social and demographic change, and land use
change. Within each category, many variables or indicators may be
used to measure specific environmental impacts.
Economic secondary effects have received by far the most
attention, primarily as a result of concern over economic benefits on
economic dislocations caused by investments. A more general reason is
the desire of sponsoring agencies to identify financial benefits as a
justification for their projects. Variables used to measure economic
impacts include changes in employment, sales, number of businesses,
capdtal investment, and land or property values. Economic impacts
associated with businesses are usually subdivided by type of firm
manufacturing, trade or commerce, services, and other, more detailed
categories.
Social and demographic effects include changes in population size
and characteristics, and other, more subtle, changes in social inter-
actions among individuals and groups. Population, characteristics that
may change include age structure, income and skill levels, and racial or
ethnic mix. A substantial amount of research has been done on relatively
abstract social impacts, such as, community cohesion and stabilityj
neighbor linkage, and community values. So far, most of the effort has
been aimed at developing quantitative measures for social impacts; less
has been done in applying these measures to specific investments.
Land use changes are derivative to economic and demographic impacts,
both of which imply some conversion in the use of land. Almost every
economic or demographic change of consequence involves a land use change
as well. Transportation and waste water investments affect people and
businesses primarily by influencing their location decisions. Changes in
locational decisions are reflected, in turn, in altered land use patterns.
Changes in the amount of residential, industrial, commercial, agricultural,
and vacant land are general measures of land use impacts.
Secondary impacts can be evaluated at a variety of geographic scales,
ranging from the Nation as a whole to a small parcel of land at a highway
interchange. Effects on land use, however, are usually considered in terms
of relatively small areas.
The review of the literature given here is organized according to
type of investment (highways, mass transit, waste water), and where possible,
according to type of secondary effect (economic, social, land use). This
classification reflects the nature of the literature. A brief summary of
general modeling techniques which can be used to project and analyze likely
secondary effects of major public investments is also given.
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I. Highways
A. Economic Impacts
1. Geographic Distribution.
Economic impacts of improved highways include effects on the
national economy, influences on regional rates of growth, and relatively
localized effects within a single metropolitan area.
On a national level, improved transportation aids general
economic development, since it improves the necessary transfer of goods
and people between and within production and consumption centers.
Transportation is also a. consumption good in itself. In the particular
case of the United States, the manufacture, operation, and servicing of
automobiles and trucks is a fundamental part of the national economy.
In assessing the overall impact of an improved highway system (e.g.
the Interstate System) on the economy of the nation, it must be borne in
mind that in an already developed country, new transportation investments
of essentially standard technology, alter mobility and relative costs
only marginally. Accordingly, such investments do not have a profound
influence on the growth or distribution of national economic activity
(I-A-24). On a national scale, the main indirect economic impact of the
improved highway was probably the added impetus it gave motor vehicle
travel. Better highways were one more reason why the shipment of goods
shifted from rail to highways.
On a regional basis, the impact of highways on economic growth
appears to be minimal. The economy of the United States, which may be
regarded as comprised of complementary regional economies, has been
mobile and adaptable to competitive economic factors. The most signifi-
cant trends in manufacturing locations over the last several decades
were rapid growth in the South and West and comparative loss in the
Northeast (6). Important factors in this change were climate, labor,
and the availability of raw materials. Climate, to be sure, did not
change over this period. However, climate was important in the growth
of aircraft manufacturing and subsidiary industries in the West and in
the Southwest, in the locations of military establishments, and in
migration, especially of older people.
Improved highways did not play a significant role in the migra-
tion of industry out of the Northeast, nor in the more even geographic
distribution of manufacturing employment throughout the country.
Generally, location of manufacturing plants bears some relation to
availability of raw materials, labor, transportation, and power.
However, as noted above, new transportation investments in a developed
country alter relative costs only marginally. Accordingly, highway
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improvements had a marginal influence on regional differential economic
growth.
In a few specific instances, highway improvements appear to have
been significant for particular locational changes. For example, the
rise of motor trucking helped put the South in closer relation to popu-
lation centers in the North and made possible the relocation of certain
aspects of apparel manufacturing to the South. Similarly, some shifts
of manufacturing from New York City to nearby areas of lower labor
costs were facilitated by highways (6).
A generalized impact of highways on manufacturing growth of
relatively small cities (10,000 to 50,000 population) may be inferred
from a statistical analysis of about 100 "city pairs" consisting of
cities matched in most aspects (geographic location, population,
economic base), but differing in location with respect to the Inter-
state Highway System. Nationwide, there was no significant difference
in growth rates for the two types of cities. In areas with dense
population and uneven terrain, e.g., Northeast, Southeast, Pacific
Northwest, cities on the freeway system grew faster (I-A-67).
Regional impacts of improved highways have been analyzed in
connection with the public policy issue of using investments in trans-
portation as a means for aiding economically distressed areas (I-A-27,
36,43,71). A strategy of highway development was followed in a number
of instances (I-A-43,71); however, the preponderance of evidence
suggests that regional development brought about by highways is slight
(I-A-36,71) or moderate at best (I-A-43); other factors carry much
greater weight in determining economic well-being of a region (I-A-27,
36,43,71).
Smaller areas, e.g., satellite cities, can sometimes be helped by
new highways. There is evidence that economically distressed cities,
if they are near a major metropolitan center, benefit from increased
accessibility through "spillover" of industry, suburban residents, and
service industries (I-A-27). The effect appears to be highly localized;
it has occurred when the distressed city is within easy commuting dis-
tance of a metropolitan center (I-A-27), but not for somewhat more
distant cities (I-A-27).
Local effects of highways are more substantial than regional
effects. The bulk of detailed studies summarized below deals with the
impact of highways on intraregional locational decisions of various
types of industrial and commercial enterprises.
2. Business Location in Relation to Highways.
a) Manufacturing.
A series of studies, based mostly on interviews and question-
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naires, assessed the importance of highways in site selection by
industry (I-A-04,06,33,34,50,59). In general, industrial location
decisions occur at three separable and sequential levels: (1) primary -
selection of a broad region; (2) secondary - a narrowing of the decision
to one or a few communities within the region; and (3) tertiary - actual
site selection. Three main types of selection factors are involved:
cost, market access, and non-economic considerations. Highway trans-
portation is typically a cost factor at the tertiary level (I-A-34).
Accessibility to highways is one of a number of factors generally
considered in site selection by most industries (I-A-06,33,34,50,59).
The network of existing roads, rather than any one highway, appears to
be important (I-A-34). Manufacturing industry will not, in general,
pay a premium or sacrifice other elements of desirability in order to
gain a highway site.
b) Wholesale and Retail Trade.
Distribution firms and wholesalers are generally more sensitive
to highways than manufacturing establishments. Typically, these firms
are concerned with proximity to a highway network adequate for serving
their markets; they do not, as a rule, require direct access or direct
exposure to a highway (I-A-59).
Warehousing, wholesaling, and some service industries have
historically occupied locations within the CBD "frame," that is, in an
area surrounding the CBD and characterized primarily by linkages to the
broader metropolitan area (I-A-29). The development of extensive
highway networks around and through metropolitan regions appears to
have encouraged migration of such firms to more suburban locations.
Retail establishments are generally highly sensitive to highway
location. Certain categories of retail businesses have a direct and
intimate relation to roads and are described as "highway-oriented."
These include service stations, motels, restaurants, and drive-in
establishments of diverse kinds.
Retail business in cities appears to be spatially ordered with
respect to the road network (I-A-26). Two basic conformations are
evident: string street development and clusters. The latter are
hierarchically structured from central business districts to neighbor-
hood facilities. Additionally, retail establishments tend to be
spatially associated with each other. In particular, a group of
business types which tend to co-locate on "automobile rows" can be
identified (I-A-26); another group of highway-oriented businesses are
successful only when located on urban arterials or on highway strips
(I-A-26).
The relative competitive position of the CBD against suburban
shopping centers appears to have been weakened by improvements in the
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highway network of most metropolitan centers (I-A-70). Indirect
effects of highways on the CBD are considered in greater detail
below.
c) Services.
Finance, insurance, real estate, government and other services
(e.g.; medical services) have been traditionally concentrated in the
central core of metropolitan areas and have been the most intensive
users of commercial office space. The location of services is not,
in general, sensitive to highways. However, some decentralization- of
services occurred as the population shifted to the suburbs.
Banking is primarily a "downtown" activity. In any given metro-
politan area, total deposits in distance bands from the CBD core are
inversely related to distance from the CBD (I-A-29). Most banks located
in outlying areas of urban centers are found on or near state or Inter-
state highways. This is probably a coincidence and is indicative of
an attachment of banks to commercial districts on these routes rather
than to highways (I-A-29).
The insurance industry has decentralized significantly from the
CBD core and frame. Insurance offices in suburban locations are
generally in areas of comparatively dense residential settlement rather
than in less built-up, unincorporated areas. Generally, suburban insur-
ance offices are adjacent to major arterials or within a mile of a major
arterial (I-A-29).
3. Highway Impacts on Cities.
Metropolitan areas generally consist of one or more central
cities, secondary industrial and commercial centers, older suburbs of
increasing population density, and peripheral suburbs mainly of single-
family detached homes. About 40 percent of the national population
lives in large metropolitan centers, each with population of one million
or more.
Metropolitan population and employment have been decentralizing
rapidly. In spite of continuing efforts to strengthen central cities,
many have lost population, even after repeated annexations. According
to the Census of 1970, employment outside the central city in SMSA's
with population of 250,000 or more was slightly over 50 percent of the
metropolitan total (7).
Decentralization of population and employment followed different
historical patterns. Population moved to the suburbs first; employment
followed. In recent times (1960-1970), rising rates of suburban
employment and slowed population growth in the suburbs have brought the
two into balance.
The role of the automobile (and of highways) in the exodus to
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the suburbs was probably that of a catalyst rather than of a causative
factor. Almost universal dependence on automobiles characterizes
peripheral suburban areas where heaviest growth is taking place. The
trends observed in employment dispersion suggest that automobiles and
motor trucks had a specific impact on relocation of certain types of
business.
a) Manufacturing.
Central cities lost and suburbs gained employment in manufactur-
ing over the last twenty years. In the period 1948-1963, there was a
loss of 600,000 jobs in the 24 largest central cities and a gain of
about 1,000,000 jobs in the suburbs (I-B-20). In terms of percentages,
manufacturing employment in the central cities decreased from 67% of
the SMSA total in 1948 to 53% in 1963. It dropped below 50% by the
1970 census.
The findings of specific local studies, e.g., Route 128 in the
Boston Metropolitan Area (I-A-05), suggest that the move from city to
suburb was generally helped by new circumferential and radial highways.
Most "new" industries in the suburbs are industries relocating from
the central city (I-A-04,05).
b) Wholesale and Retail Trade.
Wholesale trade, typically a CBD frame activity, migrated
steadily and significantly to suburban locations. Wholesale employment
in the suburbs was negligible in the immediate postwar years (1948);
by 1963, it accounted for about 40% of suburban jobs. In overall
percentages, central cities dropped from about 90% of the SMSA total
in 1948 to 72% in 1963 (I-B-20). Dependence on over-the-road trucking
increased steadily over this period.
There is little doubt that the Interstate highway network,
including circumferential belts, played an important part in the decen-
tralization of wholesale trade activity (I-A-29). Specific locational
studies of wholesale establishments support this conclusion (I-A-59).
Retail trade in central cities dropped consistently and sharply
from 1948 to 1970, roughly from three quarters of the SMSA total to
less than half (I-B-20). Case studies (I-A-59,70), locational studies
(I-A-26,29), and theoretical analyses (I-A-32,70) all suggest that
highways played a significant role in migration of retail trade to the
suburbs.
c) Services.
General service employment, specialized services and government
employment have remained strong in the central cities. The gain in
service industries in central cities over the last 15 years was
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numerically not too different from that in the suburbs; in terms of
respective percentages it was, of course, much less. Highways do not
appear to have played a major role in the relative distribution of
service industries (I-A-29). Mass transit appears to be more signifi-
cant in this respect.
The steady and continuing decline of central cities relative to
the suburbs over the last twenty-five years was not caused by the auto-
mobile. However, automobiles and highways facilitated the process,
determined to some extent its components, and played a large role in
determining the geographic distribution of urban activities.
B. Social Impacts
Direct social effects of highways on a community can be assessed
in terms of dislocation of households and business within the right of
way, taking of public lands, removal of recreational areas, etc.
However, there is evidence that there are secondary impacts on the
stability of existing communities brought about by changes associated
with the highway. Much of the work on "social" impacts involves
specification and testing of indices or other indicators of social
conditions and change, and deals largely with abstract concepts that
are controversial even to social scientists. Recent work in this
field deals primarily with definition and measurement of composite
indices of secondary social impacts, since it is generally agreed that
a single variable cannot be used to quantify the often controversial
effects of highways on communities (I-B-11,26,50).
One such composite indicator is the "mobility index" (I-B-50).
Changes in the index reflect impacts of highways on community stability
and cohesion. Variables used include percent of persons five years or
older who occupied the same residences for five or more years; percent
of housing units 20 years or older occupied by the same household
continuously; percent of single-family residence units; and percent
owner-occupied units. These quantities were combined linearly to yield
a mobility index.
The index was successfully applied to a test area in Beverly
Hills, California (I-B-50). Data problems were encountered elsewhere.
Although a simplified index was designed, it is doubtful that the
mobility index can be used generally to evaluate community impacts of
highway construction.
An.empirical method for measuring residential linkages and
linkage patterns has been suggested as a basis for estimating community
consequences of transportation projects (I-B-11). Linkage definition
involved analysis of activity patterns and important destination points
for households.
Activity patterns were described by assigning a vector to each
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destination point. Each vector originated at the homesite and contained
elements describing the characteristics-of the activity site (e.g.,
geographic location, type of activity), and characteristics of the
household's interaction with the site (e.g., trip rate, mode, travel
time). Activity categories included full-time work; school; religious;
part-time work; shopping; recreation; informal socializing; restaurants;
community activities and formal socializing. Three principal modes of
travel were considered: car, public transportation, and walking.
Definition of a set of residential linkages was based on travel
surveys to identify a complete set of destination points for each
household (travel diaries); household interviews to identify the
activity sites considered important; and discriminant iterations analysis
to identify the criteria underlying the household's choice of important
destination points (linkages).
The analysis was applied successfully in a case study in Skokie,
Illinois (I-B-11). However, as- the authors admit, the procedures used
to define residential linkages represent the value set of the authors,
not necessarily those of the households. The small sample size and its
intense geographic concentration limit possible inferences on the
general applicability of the results. General use of the method is also
restricted by the high cost of the necessary surveys (I-B-11).
A simplified mobility index has been formulated based on easily
available information (city directories) (I-B-26). Neighborhoods were
operationally defined as combinations of city blocks with homogeneous
residential housing characteristics. The mobility index for a
neighborhood measured residential mobility at five-year intervals
simply through the proportion of residents in the same dwelling units,
base year compared with five years past.
In case studies of Austin, Houston, and Dallas, Texas, neighbor-
hoods were grouped by socioeconomic level and by their spatial relation
to freeways (I-B-26). Study neighborhoods included communities border-
ing a freeway and communities segmented by a freeway. Neighborhoods
with similar social and economic characteristics, but not in close
proximity to a freeway, were used as controls.
Statistical analysis showed that the segmented neighborhood
category was a significant variable. Residential mobility is likely
to increase significantly for a segmented neighborhood. Conversion of
single dwelling units to apartments or addition of new multiple
dwelling units is also likely to take place in segmented neighborhoods
(I-B-26).
Problems arising from perceived conflicts between established
community values and forces tending to alter the status quo have been
the subject of a number of normative studies dealing with the develop-
ment of an integrated highway planning process (I-D-1,5,8,11,12).
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Property values, housing stock, recreational facilities, and aesthetics
were identified as indicators of social and community disruption
(I-B-30,50; I-D-8).
C. Land Use and Values
1. Land Use.
a) Residential.
Residential use of land is not related to highways in any simple
way. Low density, single-family development is often independent of
highways, i.e., other factors (socioeconomic, zoning protection,
schools) have predominant influence (I-A-43; C-01,08,11,29; IV-07).
However, highways appear to promote conversion of vacant (farm) land
to low density residential use at the urban fringe (I-C-08,29,43;
IV-07). Generally, such development takes place some distance away
since various factors related to highways (induced commercial develop-
ment, noise and air pollution) inhibit residential uses (I-C-08)'.
High density residential development appears to be promoted by
highways, particularly at or near interchanges. Particularly notable
is development of multi-family apartments along circumferential high-
ways (I-A-12).
b) Industrial and Commercial.
Highways promote conversion of vacant and residential land to
commercial and industrial uses. Findings of case studies on land use
are consistent with general patterns of location of industry and
commerce (see section I.A.); in brief, case studies show that increased
accessibility provided by highways introduces pressures for commercial
development of land (I-A-12,43; C-01,08,11,29,32,43; IV-07).
Arterial streets and radial highways tend to promote string
development while circumferential highways tend to promote more compre-
hensive development and weld suburban communities into a cohesive
whole (I-A-12,63). Circumferential highways may lead to accelerated
commercial development along major arterials intersecting them (I-C-32).
Highways and other all-weather roads are significant factors
in geographic concentration of retail business in rural areas (I-A-65).
Land use changes are most rapid, and land uses most intensive,
at or near interchanges (I-A-12; C-29,32). Highway oriented businesses
are prominent components of development at rural interchanges (I-A-12,
25,40; C-29,32,50). Industry, commerce, and high-density residential
uses appear much more frequently than highway-related businesses in
development at interchanges along circumferential highways (I-C-50) .
10
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c) Vacant and Rural Land.
The amount of vacant or farm land is often a significant factor
in the rate of development of an impacted area. Generally, land
utilization progresses from agricultural to a combination of agricul-
tural, residential, commercial and vacant land, with subsequent changes
involving some conversion from low intensity uses (low density residen-
tial) to commercial or industrial. Highway impacts appear to be most
pronounced initially and are most evident in the rates of conversion
of farm or vacant land. Later changes depend on the rate of urbaniza-
tion of the area as a whole and are often independent of the highway
(I-C-08).
Land development at rural interchanges involves predominantly
highway oriented business service stations, motels, restaurants
(I-A-40; C-50). Topography and distance to nearest urban area are
significant variables in the rate of development (I-A-40). Quadrants
on the right-hand side of motorists approaching the interchange on the
main (Interstate) highway are more prone to development (I-C-50).
Directional and cloverleaf interchanges have roughly equivalent amounts
of development. Among cloverleaf interchanges, those with access pro-
vided by frontage roads have significantly more intensive development
than restricted access interchanges (I-C-50).
2. Land Values.
The value of land adjacent to new or improved highways increases
substantially, typically in the range of 100% to 400% over that of
control areas in a ten-year period. It should be noted that highways in
urban areas are located so as to minimize land costs. Therefore, land
values in a highway corridor are likely to be less than metropolitan
averages before highway construction.
Changes in land use are important in determining appreciation.
Land value increases are most substantial after conversion to a more
intensive use; particularly, when farm land is converted to commercial
use (I-A-63). The value of land used for single-family dwellings is,
on average, not affected significantly by highways (I-C-01).
The value of farm land seems to vary with its location with res-
pect to roads. When other major determinants of farm value are taken
into account (particularly, land productivity and type of agricultural
use), farm land values are least for locations on dirt roads; and are
progressively greater for locations on gravel roads, farm-to-market
roads, and state highways (l-C-02).
Appreciation of (urban) land depends on its location with respect
to the highway. In some instances, increases were at a maximum for land
abutting the highway and declined regularly thereafter (I-A-30; C-01);
more complicated relations were found in other cases (I-C-01,32).
11
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II. Mass Transit
Mass transit, bus and rail, affects urban activities through
the same mechanism accessibility as highways. However, the
differences between car and transit modes of travel have an important
bearing on their secondary effects. Mass transit is an inherently less
attractive means of transportation for most people because of fixed
routes, a combination of walking and waiting with riding, and the lack
of small comforts and privacy. It is often pointed out that mass
transportation, where available, is substantially less expensive than
auto travel. This is true when automobile ownership is avoided.
However, if an automobile is owned, the overhead costs of depreciation,
maintenance, interest, and insurance must be paid even if the vehicle
is not used. Therefore, transit must be used for all trips to provide
significant savings in cost; such a choice involves a substantial
sacrifice of personal mobility.
The majority of studies dealing with secondary impacts of mass
transit are evaluative and projective rather than retrospective. This
is hardly surprising, since comparatively little was invested in new
facilities until very recently. Mass transit in the United States
declined steadily from its 'abnormal' peak during the years of World
War II to the relatively minor position it has in transportation today.
Only in the 70's, after the congestion, pollution, and inordinate
energy consumption of the automobile became generally apparent, did mass
transit generate new interest and new support.
The decline of mass transit over the last twenty-five years was,
in a sense, a secondary impact of highways and of expanded mass produc-
tion of automobiles. While car ownership rose dramatically, mass tran-
sit ridership fell from about 17 million passengers in 1950 to only
6.5 million in 1972 (8). The decline of mass transit was equally
severe by any other yardstick (8). However, some bright spots in this
bleak picture have appeared recently: the BART system in San Francisco,
MARTA in Atlanta, METRO in Washington. Plans for new systems or
extensions have also been drawn for a number of other urban centers (8).
Mass transit typically serves highly urbanized areas; its
setting makes it difficult to isolate secondary impacts of mass transit
from the diverse influences shaping urban growth. The absence of hard
data, the episodic character of the impact literature, and the limited
number of available studies make generalizations about impacts of
mass transit tentative at best.
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1. Economic Impacts.
a) Manufacturing Employment.
There is no clear evidence that mass transit has a significant
impact on manufacturing employment. Increased employment through
improved accessibility to jobs has been cited as a. benefit of mass
transit, usually for inner city minority or disadvantaged groups
(11-07,10,22,35,50). Available data are limited, but on the whole,
they do not support this claim. For example, special bus routes
designed to improve access of inner city residents to suburban manu-
facturing locations have had little impact on employment (11-07,22).
b) Wholesale Trade.
Mass transit is not directly relevant to wholesaling. There is
no evidence that location of wholesale business bears any relation to
mass transit facilities.
c) Retail Trade.
Mass transit is generally viewed as having beneficial impact on
retail sales. The reference is to retail trade in the CBD and the
ability of the CBD to compete with suburban shopping centers. The
evidence, sketchy as it is, seems to support this view (11-19,41).
d) Services.
Mass transit has a significant impact on location of services
(insurance, real estate, banking, other specialized services). Analysis
of changes in land use associated with rapid transit facilities shows
considerable development of office space (11-14,19). It may be inferred
that services, the most intensive users of office space, tend to locate
near areas served by rapid transit.
e) Impacts on Inner Cities.
Mass transit, particularly rapid transit, is generally regarded
as a revitalizing force for urban centers. The available evidence is
ambiguous. Improved accessibility within the city is clearly a benefit
to the urban core; improved accessibility between the inner city and
outlying (suburban) locations may accelerate rather than reverse the
decentralization trend (11-14). High speed transit apparently helped
the downtown area in San Francisco (11-20,41). In Philadelphia, the
Lindenwold Speedline appears to have accelerated development of suburban
office space at the expense of downtown areas (Philadelphia and Camden
City) (11-14).
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2. Land Use and Values.
a) Land Use.
The relatively limited available evidence suggests that rapid
transit stimulates intensive land uses: high-rise apartments, office
buildings, urban retail centers. Primary evidence of impacts on land
use is provided in studies of Toronto (11-19), Philadelphia (11-14), and
San Francisco (11-41).
b) Land and Property Values.
Some of the earliest impact studies of rapid transit deal with
real estate values. For example, a study of the Flatbush Avenue Line
in Brooklyn, New York conducted in the early thirties combined before
and after with study/control area comparisons to derive quantitative
impacts (9). It was found that assessed valuations per square foot
increased near rapid transit stations by factors up to 10 or 12 from
1920 to 1930. Impacts on real estate values were confined within about
1,000 feet of the station (9). Similar results were obtained in a study
of the Cleveland Rapid Transit System (10). Other studies also suggest
substantial increases of real estate values following extension or
introduction of rapid transit (11-14,19,41).
Two recent impact studies illustrate effects of rapid transit on
land use and values. The 4.5 mile Yonge Street Subway in Toronto was
opened in 1954. In 1963, an eight mile crosstown extension was com-
pleted; additional extensions are planned to enlarge the system to a
total of 21 miles. An analysis of real estate changes in Toronto partially
suggests that the subway was responsible for two-thirds of the property
value appreciation over the period 1952-1962 (11-19). Tax assessment
increases in districts contiguous to the subway ranged from 45% to 107%,
while the remaining city areas averaged only a 25% increase.
About half of all high-rise apartment development in Toronto
occurred in four planning districts through which the subway passes.
Also, the bulk of major office construction during the same period
occurred in three planning districts serviced by the transit line.
About two-thirds of all real estate development was within five minutes
walking distance from the subway.
The Philadelphia-Lindenwold Speedline, a highly automated, dual
rail rapid transit facility was opened in 1969. It links the Philadel-
phia CBD with the City of Lindenwold in Camden County, and passes
through several low-density suburban communities in southern New Jersey.
The Speedline appears to have increased the rate of office space
development in Speedline communities. Associated with this increase
was a displacement of activities from Philadelphia and Camden City.
Thus, the facility appears to have accelerated the decentralization
trend rather than reversed it (11-14).
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III. Wastewater Facilities
The influence of public wastewater facilities primarily
treatment plants and trunk sewers on urban activities and land use
patterns has received limited attention. An extensive search of recent
literature identified only a few, largely qualitative, empirical studies.
Accordingly, the discussion of secondary effects of wastewater treatment
facilities given here is largely based on causal relationships between
wastewater service and location decisions. This analysis is consistent
with the limited findings or hypotheses- available, and has been
supported in a preliminary series of empirical case studies (11). It
suggests that under a set of limiting conditions not uncommon in metro-
politan areas today, sewer investments can be a principal determinant
for the location of development.
A. Business Location in Relation to Sewers *
The influence of public wastewater investments on the location
decisions of businesses depends largely on the extent to which industry
groups rely on sewer systems for the disposal of wastewater. Since the
1972 Water Pollution Control Act Amendments are almost certain to change
this reliance for many industry groups, it is not possible to identify
classes of businesses that have similar sensitivity to sewer service.
In this discussion we assume that all businesses have some requirement
for sewer service, whether sanitary sewage from offices or water wastes
from production processes. Business activities are divided into two
classes: industry, comprising manufacturing, wholesale trade, and
other firms with large labor or material needs; and commerce, including
those firms which primarily sell goods or services to households.
1. Industry.
Industrial location (see Ch. II) depends primarily on access
to labor and to external markets. So important are these factors that
the relative influence of public sewer service is usually small. The
absence of-sewer service in a particular location may nevertheless
effectively constrain development. While most industries are not
sensitive to marginal differences in land costs, the need to fund
their own private wastewater system may prove prohibitive in terms of
additional expense. An industrial firm, for example, may find it less
expensive to purchase developed land with adequate sewer service,
demolish existing structures, and build its own plant than to locate
where undeveloped land is cheap but no sewer service is available.
And since areas with existing sewer service usually have higher accessi-
bility, they are intrinsically more attractive than undeveloped, un-
sewered land in an inaccessible location. Only large-scale industrial
development, e.g., a single major plant or an industrial park, provides
economies of scale sufficient to make private wastewater facilities
* Not supported by references
15
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cost effective. Even in this instance, a potential site is more
attractive if public sewer service is available.
Construction of urban highways magnifies the importance of new
sewer investments by making suburban sites attractive for industrial
developers. Such sites combine lower land prices than central locations
with equivalent access to labor and improved access to external markets.
Under this combination of conditions, a new sewer investment in the area
will stimulate industrial development. The absence of sewer service
on the other hand, may limit such development to a relatively minor
amount. Stated differently, if two locations within a metropolitan
area have similar land availability, price, and access levels, but
one has public sewer service while the other does not, then the
location with sewer service will be favored for industrial development.
In practice, industries or industrial developers often do not
face this choice. Local planners typically have been eager to extend
sewer service to industrial developments because of the stimulus they
give to the area's economy. Often, the industry or developer pays
only a nominal fee for this service, with the balance of costs amounting
to a subsidy paid by local residents. In this case it is more appro-
priate to say that industrial development caused the sewer investment
rather than vice versa. But it is likely that failure to provide sewer
service would have prevented development from occurring.
2. Commerce.
The effects of sewer investments on commerce are quite similar
to those on industry. The principal relationship is a negative one, in
that the absence of public sewer service constrains commercial develop-
ment. Commercial location is sensitive to population distribution and
access to households; accordingly, the relative influence of sewer
service is probably small. Commercial firms, like industries, are
willing to pay any necessary premiums on rents or land prices in return
for high access.
Conditions under which a new sewer investment will have important
secondary effects are: availability of vacant, previously unsewered
land available at low cost, relative to average cost for comparable
commercial sites, and having high access to households. Individual
stores or small office structures of low density may not require
sewer service. Therefore, some low density commercial development is
possible without public sewers.
The secondary effects of sewers on residential development affect,
in turn, the location of commerce. New residential subdivisions of any
size are followed by supermarkets, drugstores, and the like. The
regional pattern of residential development coupled with transporta-
tion facilities determines the optimum location of shopping centers
and office buildings. Thus, at least theoretically, sewers have a
16
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lagged effect on commerce through residential location that may be
more profound than more immediate impacts.
Interactions between major commercial developers and local sewer
planners are generally extensive. In particular, developers of regional
shopping or commercial centers which often include dozens of retail
outlets as well as office space are often influential in the local
planning processes. Even though land may be unsewered when purchased by
the developer and available, therefore, at a lower price there are
often informal agreements with local officials that sewer service will
be provided. The developer probably recognizes in such instance that
if his agreement falls through, wastewater disposal expenses will
reduce, but not eliminate, his profits. While no data have been
gathered to check this hypothesis, such developments are probably
large enough to allow funding of private wastewater systems in the
absence of public service.
For both commercial and industrial development, one condition
necessary for significant secondary effects is lower land price than
average. The provision of public sewer service usually causes a rapid
increase in land prices, typically by a factor of two to four. However,
because developers often buy their parcels after sewers are planned but
before they are constructed, they collect the benefits of any subsequent
price increase. Advance information and slow price responses to altered
conditions make this form of speculative activity possible.
B. Residential Location in Relation to Sewers *
The principal link between housing location and sewer service is
density of residential development. Because developers typically
increase their profits (and offer reduced housing prices) through more
intensive use of land, the availability of sewer service is a stimulus
to build. This is particularly true in major metropolitan areas, where
generally inflated land prices discourage low densities even in out-
lying locations. In many regions, use of septic tanks in new homes has
virtually ceased because of the large lot sizes required for leaching
fields. The importance of sewer service, therefore, appears to be
growing.
1. Residential Growth in Relation to Sewer Investments.
In an empirical examination of rapid development in an urban
fringe area of about 17,000 acres located in the northeast section of
the City of Philadelphia (111-06), time series data were used to relate
land values and land development to accessibility, availability of
public facilities (including sewers), zoning, and ownership characteris-
tics. The study period extended from 1945, when post-war development
pressures were beginning, to 1962.
Parcels of land with access to trunk sewers averaged four times
* Not supported by references
17
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the value of land not accessible to sewers. Because the data were
aggregated over an 18-year study period, part of this difference can
be ascribed to higher average prices paid in later years when land
without sewerage was not available in the area. However, part of the
difference no doubt resulted from different prices at the time of
transaction. Interpretation of these results is ambiguous, since two
different mechanisms may have produced such a correlation. Sewers
might have directly led to increased market values or development
pressures could have led local authorities to sewer the most valuable
and attractive areas. It is probable that both mechanisms operated
during the study period.
Time series data also indicated that average annual percentage
increase in price of land not accessible to sewers was about double
that of sewered land. In explaining this result, it is noted that
unsewered land was transacted in meaningful amounts only during the
first half of the study period (111-06). Subsequently, all land in
the area was fully sewered. It appears that as sewers were extended,
the influence of other factors became predominant.
The main conclusion of the study was that lack of sewers acts
as a negative constraint on development. Their absence inhibits
functioning of operative builders, although it clearly does not pre-
vent all development. The existence of sewers, on the other hand,
cannot overcome other forces limiting development in subareas. The
study concluded that whether selective installation would channel
construction from one subarea to another was an open question.
A retrospective study of development in Fairfax County, Virginia
contains a largely qualitative description of the influence of sewer
investments on residential development (111-10). Although lacking in
rigorous empirical support, the study provides a scenario of rich
details of impacts and their causes, and makes a strong case for a
major role of sewers in sprawl development.
Fairfax County, a southern component of Metropolitan Washington,
experienced nearly a five-fold increase in population from 1950 to
1970. The immigrants were largely accommodated in single-family houses
in the $30,000 to $40,000 range. Because of the demand for low-density
development, the hilly watersheds of the area, and the large reserves
of undeveloped land in the county, sprawl was dominant in the tidal
wave of development. County officials, the study claims, exacerbated
this phenomenon by dutifully extending interceptor sewers into totally
undeveloped areas and granting zoning variances willingly. As a
result, large amounts of open space were needlessly taken, tax burdens
on existing residents grew, public services stagnated, and land specu-
lation increased.
To put these events in perspective, it is important to acknowledge
some purely local factors that encouraged this pattern of development.
18
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The county is under tremendous suburban growth pressure from
Washington, B.C. Soils are unsuitable for septic tanks; accordingly,
sewerage is almost a necessity for development. The county financed
sewers largely without federal assistance and consequently increased
its indebtedness. Finally, land use plans and controls in Fairfax
County were rendered ineffective partially because of court decisions
indicating that limitations on development were arbitrary and
capricious.
Relations between sewers and population growth in the Washington
area were statistically examined in the period 1960 to 1968 in another
study conducted by the Metropolitan Council of Governments (111-04).
The EMPIRIC model was the basic framework for the analysis;
EMPIRIC calibration data were a major part of the data base. In the
EMPIRIC model, the Washington Metropolitan Area is divided into 'policy
analysis districts' on the basis of transportation corridors. Changes
in households and employment levels (divided into various categories)
are allocated in 8-year intervals beginning in 1960. The model was
calibrated for 117 districts (defined on the basis of 1960 census
tracts) with data for 1960 and 1968.
The Washington Metropolitan Area was further subdivided in the
cited study by a grid consisting of 2,000 foot squares. A computer
program digitized and identified each grid square by the EMPIRIC
calibration district to which it belonged. The impact of trunk sewers
on development was analyzed in the first instance by considering
development and trunk service for each grid square.
Sewer data were collected for each grid square and aggregated
by watershed. Statistical analysis showed that growth in a watershed,
expressed as change in share of regional population, was related to
change in design capacity of trunk sewers. Changes in share of region-
al population in a watershed were also related to the amount of vacant
land in the area multiplied by the inverse of its average straight
line distance to trunk sewers. A good correlation was observed when
these three variables were combined into a "composite capacity and
location factor."
When the same data were aggregated by EMPIRIC policy district
rather than by watershed, no significant correlation of population
growth to the "composite capacity and location factor" was found.
A relatively poor correlation of growth with changes in sewer capacity
was observed; correlation with the amount of vacant land and its
average distance from sewer service was also relatively poor. In
general, analyses by watershed and by EMPIRIC district did not yield
consistent results.
A few other studies provide insights into the nature and causes
of secondary impacts of sewers. The most commonly recognized area of
19
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secondary impact is new development, including rates, magnitudes, and
densities (111-01,06,10). Most studies have focused on residential
development in urban fringe and outlying areas where the pressure for
development is often highest. Such urban expansion, whether stimulated
or simply allowed by sewerage, usually brings with it a set of induced
impacts on local governmental services, public indebtedness, and housing
characteristics (111-01,10).
Opponents of urban expansion are coming to view interceptors as
a primary growth stimulus. The limited empirical analysis available
suggest that sewerage systems cannot always be isolated as instrumental
causes of development (111-06). However, under a set of limiting con-
ditions not uncommon today, they may serve as a principal stimulus for
localized development.
2. Single-Family Housing.
Single-family housing, the least intense of all urban land uses,
is not totally constrained by lack of sewer service. Densities for
detached homes range, on the average, from one to five units per
acre. Depending on soil conditions and topography, septic tank systems
can effectively serve up to four units per acre. Conditions are seldom
optimal, however, so that in practice septic tank systems often can
work effectively only on half-acre or full-acre parcels. And where
the water table is high or soils are impermeable not unusual con-
ditions septic tanks are impractical. Thus even single-family
housing construction can be strongly influenced by sewer service.
Since it is not generally economically feasible to construct
single family homes by demolishing existing structures and redeveloping
the land, the impact of new sewers is directly related to the amount of
vacant land in their service areas. Where little or no vacant land
exists, as in the case of relief sewers to fully developed areas,
single-family construction will not be affected. However, relief sewers
to suburban areas often traverse undeveloped locations. While in this
instance there may be no significant effects on single-family construc-
tion in the intended service area, vacant sites along the sewer line
would be likely to undergo development. Similarly, when local waste-
water systems in a metropolitan area are integrated into a regional
system through construction of interceptor sewers linking local areas,
undeveloped sites along the interceptors become attractive for single-
family housing construction. Since regional wastewater systems are
encouraged by the Water Pollution Control Act Amendments (12), this
situation is becoming more common.
Statistical analyses confirm that the amount of single-family
housing construction in an area is positively correlated with the amount
of vacant, sewered land available (11). By inference, the sewer invest-
ments most likely to stimulate construction are those in suburban
locations with substantial tracts of undeveloped land. However, where
20
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vacant, sewered land is already available in some quantity, new sewer
investments will have only a marginal influence on development.
The same analyses, however, show that single-family construction
is more strongly correlated with newly sewered land than with vacant
land sewered previously. In fact, there is some evidence (11) that
the delay or lag between sewer construction and single-family develop-
ment is minimal or even nonexistent. This suggests, first, a rush
to build in newly sewered areas before prices adjust to higher levels
normally associated with sewered land. But it also implies that
developers have advance information concerning the location of new
sewers. In fact, residential developers often request that sewers be
extended to subdivisions they are planning. Where this situation pre-
sents problems, developers may construct their own sewer system on the
agreement that the local government or sewer authority will subsequently
purchase and operate the system. Here again the situation is too
ambiguous to ascribe a one-way causal relationship between the sewer
and the subdivision. However, only the largest subdivisions (e.g.,
several hundred dwelling units or more) can economically finance their
own wastewater system without assistance from local authorities.
Generally, significant increases in single-family housing
construction can be expected to follow new sewer investments in areas
where there is little vacant, sewered land, where vacant land prices
are low relative to the regional average, and where large tracts of
contiguous undeveloped land exist. Any variation from these condi-
tions reduces the likelihood of major secondary impacts on single-
family housing.
3. Multi-Family Housing.
Multi-family housing, as an inherently intensive land use,
requires sewer service. At the same time, apartment and condominium
developers do not usually require large tracts of vacant land, and
they can pay premium prices for land. Multi-family housing construc-
tion, therefore, responds differently to sewer investments than
single-family development.
The principal difference, of course, is the necessity of high
accessibility for multi-family development, whereas new single-family
housing requires much lower access to -be successful. Like industrial
and commercial development, multi-family residential construction can
take place only where both high accessibility and sewer service are
available. However, since apartments and condominia can be built in a
variety of densities, from two-unit structures to high rise complexes,
developers can trade off access for lower densities to some extent.
There is, therefore, not a single combination of conditions under
which sewer investments significantly affect multi-family construction,
but rather are several situations which create a potential for such
secondary effects.
21
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The most significant impact on multi-family development will
occur when sewer service is provided to areas with high access to
existing employment centers and with substantial amounts of vacant land.
This situation seldom occurs except in conjunction with, highway invest-
ments, where previously inaccessible, partially undeveloped areas are
made accessible. The combination of high accessibility and land availa-
bility is ideal for major, intensive residential development.
If, on the other hand, the amount of vacant land served by a new
sewer is small, the amount of multi-family residential development
likely is less, but what construction does occur will be intense, e.g.,
high rise apartments. This difference is largely a matter of land
prices, with more units per acre necessary to reduce per unit costs.
A relief sewer to a subdivision composed primarily of single-family
homes with septic tanks might create such a situation. The amount and
intensity of subsequent multi-family construction, however, would
depend on the accessibility of the subdivision.
If sewer service is expanded in an area where little vacant land
is available and accessibility is somewhat lower, then some apartments
or condominia will probably be developed, since the scarcity of land
may raise pric-es enough to prohibit new single-family homes. In this
case, however, the lower level of access would probably limit density.
Since sewer investments usually serve areas with several combina-
tions of these characteristics, a range of effects on residential
development are likely. Portions of the service area with isolated
parcels of vacant land and good access will be attractive for apart-
ments; more outlying portions with contiguous tracts of vacant land
may be subdivided for single-family homes. Local land use controls,
such as zoning, may moderate these secondary effects.
C. General Land Use Effects
General land use secondary effects of sewer investments identi-
fied in the literature are summarized below.
The increased attractiveness of sewered areas encourages land
speculation and increased real estate values (111-06). Although it is
difficult to isolate sewer-related increases, a doubling in value
seems common, while three-, four-, and five-fold increases in value
are not exceptional (13).
Sewer-inspired development is often of the dispersed sprawl
type with deleterious effects on available level of public services
to residents of the newly developed areas, on per capita public services
in the region as a whole, and/or on tax burdens to residents of other
areas in the region (111-10).
A potential physical effect of sewerage investments is
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decreased water quality through storm water runoff in newly developed
areas (14).
Specific mechanisms which provide strong encouragement for
development of newly sewered areas include:
Interceptor sewers servicing undeveloped or partially develop-
ed land areas subsidize developers by providing relatively low cost
sewer treatment (111-10). The subsidy encourages moderately-priced
housing, as opposed to higher priced housing in unsewered areas (15).
New sewers increase the density of possible development and
thus the potential economic "rent" (and development profit) per unit
of land to the owner or developer (111-09).
New sewerage is often partially financed by revenue bonds to
be repaid through tap-in and service charges. Local authorities tend
to encourage tap-ins through easy rezoning in order to stimulate
revenues while the market is strong (III-10). This provides another
stimulus for development at high densities.
Two other external factors help cause sewer impacts. The
availability of federal funds for capital costs makes over-capacity
sewers and regional sewerage systems more attractive to local decision-
makers. In the case of over-capacity, local planners again tend to
encourage tap-ins in order to quickly repay their share of capital
costs. And because regional systems with a central waste treatment
plant often require long interceptor lines through undeveloped areas,
they encourage development of open space (111-03).
An important qualification is that lack of public sewer invest-
ments does not necessarily stop further development. If developmental
pressures are intense, private sewerage systems are financially feasible,
not only in the form of individual septic tanks, but also as package
treatment plants. Thus development can continue unchecked without
public investment in sewer facilities. But the form, intensity, and
rate of development may be significantly altered.
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IV. Modeling Techniques
Attempts to quantify probable secondary impacts of infrastruc-
ture investments include protective techniques based on single equations
(generally calibrated empirically), partial models dealing with a
narrow range of specific impacts, and comprehensive models dealing with
major aspects of a regional system (16, 1V-31,36,37).
1. Projective Equations.
Single equation "models" have been used to describe or forecast
aspects of development (generally land use) given a set of independent
variables. The set generally includes variables related to availabil-
ity of sewers and transportation.
Kaiser (IV-29) analyzed the decision-making process by various
types of developers of residential (single family) subdivisions. The
anaJLysis combined a causal specification of independent variables with
empirical study of their importance to arrive at a simplified expres-
sion for predicting the probability of subdivision development. The
model consists of a linear combination of only four predictor variables
(socio-economic rank, distance to nearest elementary school, accessi-
bility to employment, and availability of public utilities and services).
Regression analyses using data on two medium-sized cities showed
that socio-economic rank was the single most important variable deter-
mining subdivision development. Level of zoning protection, distance
to nearest major street, and public utilities were next in order of
importance. Physical characteristics of the land were not important.
The model treats the spatial distribution (but not the amount)
of only one sector of the residential housing market (single family
subdivisions). It cannot be used for forecasts over long periods of
time. Furthermore, since contextual factors were found to be important,
the model must be calibrated separately for each urban area.
A similar approach was used by Kaiser and co-workers (IV-30)
in a study of land use conversion. Regression analysis was used to
determine whether landowners on the urban fringe would sell their
property for development. Six predictor variables were identified and
grouped into two categories, landowner and property characteristics.
Important landowner characteristics were: residence on or off the land;
employed or retired; single or joint ownership; and length of ownership
of the property. Property characteristics were: amount of contiguous
development and assessed value (per acre) of the land. Experience with
the model showed it to be more accurate when calibrated for each of a
series of concentric rings around an urban center.
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Another approach to single equation models is exemplified by
Schlager's work (IV-43) with linear programming in devising minimum
cost, land use plans. An objective function specifying costs of
development for different land uses is minimized subject to a series
of constraints (land requirements for forecasted urban activities) and
design requirements (e.g., exclusion of construction on flood plains,
restrictions on adjacent industrial and residential development, etc.)-
Required inputs in the analysis are costs, inventories and forecasts
of land development, and design requirements.
The use of linear programming assumes that objectives can be
represented in common terms, e.g., dollar costs. It also assumes that
a stable optimum can be attained in the time period under study; this
implies, in turn, that objective and constraint functions and their
coefficients are invariant.
Similar assumptions are necessary in regression analysis.
Calibration of the weight of independent factors generally implies that
these factors are invariant over the study period. A corollary assump-
tion is that "independent" factors are not significantly affected
during the projection period by the variables being predicted (i.e.,
by the dependent variables in the model).
2. Partial Models.
a) Land Use.
Early economic theories of land use generally postulated a free
land market in which different types and numbers of land consumers
compete for different parcels of land. Land owners rent (or sell) to
the highest bidder. The bid of each consumer or group of consumers
depends upon their needs and their income. Consumers minimize the sum
of expenditures for ground rent and transportation consistent with
their requirements and preferences (17). However, because each parcel
of land goes to the highest bidder, low income families must join in
bidding for small parcels of land, thus increasing density. Further-
more, density tolerance varies with household composition. "Thus a
certain natural selectivity takes place in which both income and
density tolerance are at work" (17).
Industrial and commercial consumers operate in the same fashion,
but their requirements are different. Rather than employment and
amenities, which guide residential choice, industrial necessities
include labor, markets, materials and services. These factors are
weighed differently by different types of businesses, and each industry
has its own density tolerance.
In spite of their simplicity, these early economic theories of
land markets and use introduced several important concepts that
strongly influenced later approaches to the problem. Most important
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were the role of accessibility in determining land use and the princi-
ple of minimization of land rent-transportation costs (or its equiva-
lent, maximization of disposable income).
Among recent land use models, the University of North Carolina
Model (IV-07) treats conversion of open land to residential use. In
the UNC model, an entire metropolitan area is divided into cells. Some
cells are exogenously specified to be unavailable for residential
development based on a forecast of non-residential land uses. The
probability of development of the remaining cells is proportional to
their "attractiveness" to population groups. Attractiveness is a
weighted combination (calibrated by regression) of initial assessed
value, accessibility to work areas, availability of public sewerage,
and accessibility to the nearest major street and nearest elementary
school. In each forecast interval, units of development are assigned
to cells probabilistically according to attractiveness scores. This
assignment continues until all forecasted demand is met.
The UNC model is applicable to areas of growth and new develop-
ment. Housing supply is assumed to be totally governed by demand.
Neither interaction of supply and demand, nor its result, housing
prices, are considered within the model.
Neglect of supply-demand interactions is a characteristic of
many land use models. Supply of land for specific uses is often
formulated as dependent upon demand. For this reason, research has
centered on techniques to derive supply from demand. Two techniques
used extensively are regression analysis and optimization via linear
programming.
b) Economic Activity Location.
Intraregional economic location models address, at least implic-
itly, relative advantages of regional sub-areas. Such advantages can
usually be translated in the end in terms of either lower costs of
doing business or in larger and more attractive markets. These two
categories provide a convenient means for disaggregating industries
in economic location models. The primary determinant of location of
market-oriented industries is, almost by definition, market attractive-
ness. Oh the other hand, location of non-market oriented industries
is influenced by a variety of factors which make up the overall cost
of doing business.
A so-called "gravity formulation" was the basis of the retail
market potential model developed for Baltimore by Lakshmanan and Hansen
(IV-32). The gravity model asserts that the extent of interaction
between two areas is proportional to the mass (or size) of the two
entities, and inversely proportional to a power of the distance between
them. Measures of mass may be income, car registrations, school enroll-
ment, etc., depending upon the topics addressed by the model. For
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example, the gravity model has been used in transportation studies to
generate traffic volumes between a number of points by using population
as the indicator of mass and by expressing "distance" in miles, time,
or travel costs.
The actual model developed by Lakshmanan and Hansen for Baltimore
was a variant of the gravity formulation generally known as the inter-
vening-opportunities model. This version assumes that distance per se
is not a determinant of interaction but rather, as Stouffer (18)
suggests, "the number of persons going a given distance is directly
proportional to the opportunities at that distance and inversely
proportional to the number of intervening opportunities."
The Lowry model (IV-35) incorporates economies of scale by
imposing a minimum facility size constraint on the location of retail
activity. It is a static model that iteratively solves for equilibrium
between employment and residential location. Lowry models not only
the home-to-shop trips, but the work-to-shop trips as well, so that
retail location is dependent upon all employment and residential
location. This is done by assigning to each zone a score reflecting
accessibility to consumers (from home and work). Total retail employ-
ment (generated by a conversion factor from total households) is
distributed among zones in proportion to the accessibility scores.
The EMPIRIC model (IV-50) employs, as do a number of other models
(19,20,IV-51), regression analysis to calibrate the extent to which
various independent factors determine employment location. These
factors are exogenously specified to provide the bases for future
allocation of employment. In EMPIRIC, different combinations of the
following "locator variables" are used for projection and allocation:
intensities of land use; zoning practices; automobile accessibilities;
transit accessibilities; quality of water service; and quality of sewer
service. Changes in the following variables were allocated to different
zones in a study of the Boston area: white- and blue-collar population;
retail and wholesale employment; manufacturing employment; and all
other employment.
c) Residential Location.
As with economic activity, accessibility figures prominently in
many formulations of residential location. In fact, it is convenient
to group residential location models according to whether accessibility
is the prime determinant or merely one of a broader set of locational
criteria. Models in the former group include the original Kain formu-
lation, Alonso's work, and Lowry's metropolitan model. The latter
group includes De Leeuw's housing model, the NBER urban simulation,
the San Francisco model, and Ellickson's formulation.
All these models, whether accessibility-dependent or not,
include, generally explicitly, utility functions representing
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locational criteria of households and the households' attempts to
satisfy these criteria, that is, maximize the utility functions through
locational decisions.
Kain (IV-27) postulated that households minimize overall costs
consisting of transportation expenses and location rents. Location
rents per unit of residential space of a stated quality and amenity
are assumed to decrease monotonically with distance from workplaces.
At any given distance from an employment center, the total location
rent increases with consumed space.
Kain considers transportation costs to have three components,
each of which includes both dollar and time costs. However, only the
cost of the journey between residence and workplace is included in
the model. The cost of obtaining services in the residential area
was omitted because it was assumed to be the same for all areas.
Costs which vary with the residence's distance to other areas were
assumed to be trivial.
In an application of the model' to the City of Detroit, inputs
were the location rent function, travel costs, and household groups'
incomes and preferences for residential space. In Detroit, households
were allocated to one of six concentric rings through a cost-minimiza-
tion procedure in a linear programming format. The minimum-cost
location (residence ring) of any given type of household is defined
by its preference for housing space and by distance from the employment
center at which the sum of the (increasing) transportation costs and
the (decreasing) total location rent for the preferred type is at a
minimum.
Lowry's model of a metropolis (IV-35) is another static equilib-
rium formulation in which the journey to work is the prime determinant
of residential location. Households are allocated iteratively to zones
in the area in proportion to each zone's score, which is based on the
zone's accessibility to employment. The first distribution of house-
holds determines an approximation to the retail employment distribution.
This approximation, together with base employment locations, redefines
the household distribution. The new household distribution is used to
revise the retail distribution, and the sequence continues, converging
to an equilibrium. Lowry's model is based on the same assumptions as
Kain's formulation.
De Leeuw's housing model (IV-10) provides the first example of
a conceptual extension of accessibility-oriented residential location
models. This equilibrium model provides a one-step projection of the
distribution of families and single persons among concentric zones
of a hypothetical metropolitan area. Three behavioral entities are
included in the model: households, landlords, and builders.
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Households attempt to maximize (in a linear programming format)
a utility function which consists of the following elements: housing
services (measured in dollars) provided by the dwelling unit; the
income remaining after renting a unit (i.e., after purchasing services);
time available after traveling; and zonal average income.
Landlords attempt to maximize profits by adjusting the services
provided and housing prices. Builders meet any demand at a price equal
to the exogenously specified capital and operating costs.
An iterative sequence is followed in which households choose
dwelling units according to their utility-maximizing criteria. A few
dozen households and units represent the entire market. Some units are
selected by more than one household, and some not at all. In these
situations, the housing price is raised or lowered, respectively, by
an exogenously specified amount, and the amount of services provided
modified accordingly. Minimum limits are set for the rent levels.
The next iteration of household location is performed with the new
distribution of prices and services available to households. This
process continues as long as housing units either are selected by more
than one household or are vacant with a price above the minimum allow-
able level.
De Leeuw assumes that, contrary to Kain's journey-to-work theory,
housing quality and neighborhood (income) effects are, in fact, deter-
minants of residential location. In addition, a more explicit repre-
sentation of supply-demand interactions yields price adjustments in
working toward a market-clearing solution.
Market-clearing interactions are placed in a more dynamic frame-
work in the NBER model (IV-28). Rather than solve for equilibrium,
this formulation documents the effects of housing submarket disequilib-
ria from one time period to another in a time-stepping simulation.
Housing "bundles" replace De Leeuw's concept of housing services.
These bundles include attributes of the dwelling unit as well as
exogenously specified attributes of the neighborhood, such as density,
quality of public services, and socio-economic characteristics.
Each household has a preference for a specific bundle and
attempts to minimize (by linear programming) its travel costs accord-
ing to the location of available supplies of housing. To compute
these, interzonal matrices of travel costs and times are specified
for different travel modes. The result is that each moving household
(not all move in every time period) chooses the housing bundle it
desires at the location nearest its workplace.
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The total supplies of housing change gradually. Filtering occurs
when is it not economic to maintain a unit, given the market price the
unit is drawing. Construction of new units also depends on market
prices and associated economic factors.
A formulation similar to the NBER model, but without explicit
consideration of accessibility, is the San Francisco Housing Simulation
Model (21). Households with specified desires for housing types are
matched with available supply .of each type. Excesses of supply or
demand in submarkets generate price changes that affect the economic
feasibility of changing the level of stock of each housing type.
Households are broken down by size, income, race, and age of
head. Housing is disaggregated along two lines: dwelling unit char-
acteristics (cost, size, and condition) and what are essentially
"neighborhood" attributes (socio-economic status of residents, density
of development, topography, and historic status).
Each household type (114 in all) is assigned a preference list
of housing types. To the extent that dwelling unit and neighborhood
characteristics do not match the characteristics preferred by the
population (all have the potential for relocating in each time period),
price and stock (construction and conversion) changes are examined for
economic feasibility.
The mechanisms by which market interactions produce subsequent
changes are similar to those in the NBER model, but the San Francisco
simulation is notable for its assumption that accessibility plays a
minor role in determining location, and for its extremely disaggre-
gated representation of supply and demand.
Sociological surveys provide a number of factors for possible
inclusion in locational decision functions. Stegman (I-B-37) reports,
from a national survey of reasons for household relocation, that the
most frequently cited cause was a desire for more space. Other causes,
in order of frequency were: desire to own a home; forced moves; desire
for a lower-cost alternative; improved housing quality; and improved
neighborhood quality. A move to a location more accessible to a job
was ranked seventh.
Hinshaw and Allott (I-B-17) report the outcome of a housing and
neighborhood preference survey of urban youths, with the results dis-
aggregated according to race/ethnicity, family income level, and type
of housing presently occupied. Housing preferences, throughout almost
all groups, were for single-family suburban homes, with little desire
for proximity to relatives. Neighborhood preferences, ranked accord-
ing to importance, were "...overall, safety and proximity to good
schools are considered to be critically important. Attractiveness,
proximity to transit stops, friendliness of neighbors, and access to
parks are considered important or very important as decisional factors,
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while proximity to shops, entertainment, and place of work are consid-
ered relatively unimportant."
3. Holistic Models
Holistic models incorporate theories of land use, housing, and
residential and employment location to project population, levels of
employment, and their geographic distribution.
The Lowry model (IV-35), discussed above in connection with
household and industrial location, has provided the basic structure
for many subsequent holistic modeling efforts. The iterative solution
sequence of the Lowry model can be summarized as follows:
/Base Employment Location »~ Industrial Land Use
I jfHousehold Location » Residential Land Use
\L ^
^Retail Location *-Retail Land Use
The Pittsburgh Urban Renewal Simulation Model (IV-46) incor-
porated a revised Lowry formulation named Time Oriented Metropolitan
Model or TOMM (IV-09), an input-output interindustry model, and an
intraurban industrial location model called INIMP (IV-41).
The input-output model generates basic employment projections
for several employment categories for the region, county, and city.
INIMP distributes projected base employment increases and decreases
among tracts in the city. Employment decreases are either: (a)
allocated to tracts in proportion to the amount of industry in that
tract; or (b) if the decrease exceeds externally specified "shutdown
percentages," a Monte Carlo procedure deletes facilities until the
projected decrease is less than shutdown levels, allocating the
remaining decrease according to (a). Increases are allocated in a
three-stage process. Some industry types require certain location
attributes (e.g., near a river or airport), which are specified for
the model. Tracts with suitable attributes may accept corresponding
industry types. Allocation among these tracts is in proportion to
scores assigned to them according to four factors: assessed value,
available land, structural density, and industrial clustering.
Finally, new facilities are generated by any tract industry increase
which exceeds a capacity constraint.
This base industry location provides the inputs for TOMM. The
Lowry-type iterative process locates population and retail industry
in the city. There are three changes in this formulation from that
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of Lowry's. First, it is assumed that reduction of the study's bound-
aries to that of a city does not conflict with the location model's
structure, i.e., exurban or inter-county commuting is insignificant.
Second, households are disaggregated by income. Income and households
determine, through a conversion factor, retail activity distribution.
Third, only a fraction of households and retail activity can relocate
within one time period, thereby abandoning the equilibrium solution
for a dynamic simulation.
The Bay Area Simulation Study or BASS (IV-06) modeled a much
larger area that of nine and thirteen counties, in two different
versions of the model. Historical employment and population trends
were extrapolated to obtain totals for the area, with the assumption
that the forces behind this development in the past would continue in
effect in the future.
Different types of employment are located according to a variety
of formulations. Primary (agriculture, mining, etc.) employment is
allocated by trend extrapolation. Construction employment is allocated
in proportion to new housing and new employment. Retail employment is
allocated in proportion to relative attractiveness indices, which
combine market potentials (generated by a gravity model) with a measure
of commercial site suitability. This suitability was calculated using
regression analysis based upon employment in certain other industries,
employment and population accessibilities (from matrices of inter-zonal
travel times), and density of development.
The allocation of manufacturing industries (IV-17) uses a formu-
lation similar to INIMP. For projected increases, a two-step process
is employed. Tracts are first examined for "essential factors" for
each industry. Attractiveness scores are assigned to tracts possessing
such factors according to regression-calibrated weightings of forty
characteristics. These include levels of employment, accessibilities,
and land availability. The area with the highest score receives an
employment increase equal to the average size of that industry's
facility. This process continues until the entire regional increase
has been allocated. Industrial declines are allocated among tracts
according to the percentage of the industry in each tract.
Household location is computed in terms of housing demand,
disaggregated by single- and multi-family housing of high, medium, and
low value. Households are allocated to subareas in proportion to each
subarea's accessibility to employment. Housing demolition is forecast
exogenously. Constant proportions are specified for the value classes
of housing, and construction and filtering are formulated to attempt
to maintain these proportions.
The entire Northeast Corridor of the U.S. was the subject of
the Northeast Corridor Transportation Project (IV-08). This analysis
was originally designed to include a hierarchy of three models: ECON,
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an econometric model for projecting industrial sectors' labor demands
and the demands for sectoral output; IRIO, an interregional input-
output model; and INTRA-1, an intraregional allocation model. IRIO
has since been deleted. The INTRA-1 formulation (22) has been changed
substantially, and the current version is known as INTRA-II (23).
The latter formulation is examined here, and referred to simply as
"INTRA."
INTRA was developed as a set of highly interrelated components.
Extensive feedback processes in the model produce a time-stepping
simulation of the system. INTRA uses the output of ECON to produce
forecasts, by county, of employment in industrial sectors, population,
income levels, and land use. Incremental changes are computed by
econometrically derived equations in order to provide a dynamic
formulation.
Changes in employment distribution are based upon counties
relative advantages in procurement, processing, and distribution. Pro-
curement advantage is highly dependent upon accessibility to required
inputs. Processing advantage reflects the relative costs of production
factors, particularly land and labor. Distributional advantage is
dependent upon accessibility to markets and the market potential (for
an intermediate good or a final consumable).
Births, deaths, and migration determine county population levels.
Births and deaths are formulated as being dependent upon income levels
and population densities. Migration is generated by feedback from
unemployment, accessibility to employment, and wage differentials.
Wage and property incomes are the primary components (though others
are also computed) of personal income. Land value is dependent upon
the density of the land's use (by population and industry). Further-
more, land consumption by all users is dependent upon the cost of that
land.
A similar system of models was proposed by Engle et al. (IV-12).
Modifications included a more disaggregated population (by age, race,
and skill level), inclusion of the effect of local taxes on locational
decisions, and consideration of structural semi-permanence of housing
on the housing market and on land use.
Forrester's Urban Dynamics (IV-14) effort modeled a complex
feedback system intended to represent major forces causing development
or decline within a city. The primary variables in the model are three
skill levels of population, land, three stages of industry, taxes, and
three qualities of housing. The model assumes that all workers live
within the city.
Attractiveness of location in the city by population groups is
dependent upon unemployment, housing quality, availability, public
expenditures per capita, and density of development. As there is no
33
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geographic disaggregation, accessibility and its effects are not treated.
A specified "normal" growth rate of industry is modified by land avail-
ability, labor force, taxes, and past growth. This assumes that all
industry types respond to the same locational factors.
Hester (IV-22) has revised the Urban Dynamics formulation to
include city-suburbs interaction in the labor market.
The regional dynamics of the Susquehanna River Basin were modeled
by Hamilton, et al. (IV-20,21). The basin was divided into nine con-
tiguous regions relatively independent of each other, except for river
water (quantity and quality) interdependencies. For each region, a
formulation was provided for interdependencies among employment and
demographic variables.
Population was disaggregated into age groups, each of which
displays relatively homogeneous behavior with respect to migration,
birth and death rates, and labor force participation. Statistically
validated relationships were established between unemployment and
birth rates and between unemployment and migration by age groups.
Unemployment was also a determinant, over time, of labor force partic-
ipation (the "discouraged worker" effect). A cumulative measure of
skills (affecting labor productivity) was maintained for each region.
Employment was disaggregated into export industries and local
serving (market-oriented) industries. The latter group was broken
down into household- and business-serving components. Export employ-
ment was further divided into four component categories, depending
upon economic sensitivity of 3-digit SIC industries to labor costs,
transportation costs of products to market, and transportation costs
of raw materials to processors.
Household-serving employment was calibrated to depend solely on
population. Business-serving employment was determined by the level
of all other employment. Regional costs in terms of the three export
industry factors cited above, and the importance of these factors to
each industry, determine the attractiveness of the region to each
export industry. Transportation costs were represented as the
measured ratio between regional and national transportation costs in
an industry. Labor costs (wages) are dependent upon the mix of
industries in the region and unemployment.
Swanson and Waldmann (IV-47) later adapted the same basic
formulation of economic and demographic sectors for application to
Kent County, Michigan. Population was further disaggregated into five
occupation groups. The "water sector" of the Susquehanna model has
since been revised as R1VERZ in an application to the Grand
River Basin (IV-03).
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4. General Discussion.
Partial models have a number of weaknesses. External forecasts
of key variables (such as employment or population) often required as
inputs are actually highly dependent upon factors endogenous to the
models. Similarly, so-called "independent factors," for example,
accessibilities and availabilities, are often greatly affected by the
variables being projected. There is, additionally, no allowance for
shifts in the relative importance of independent factors over time.
Many formulations are of a static equilibrium nature. Therefore,
there is no treatment or documentation of the dynamic process by which
equilibrium is reached, such as time-lagged interactions of supply and
demand in land, housing, and labor markets. It is, in fact, question-
able whether equilibrium can be attained by a complex socio-economic
system.
Perfect knowledge of and immediate response to regional condi-
tions (e.g. , land or housing markets) is assumed in many models. This
is a direct consequence of using non-dynamic approaches. In addition,
market operation is often assumed to be free of any government influ-
ences or constraints such as zoning regulations.
Finally, the wide range of locational decision criteria postu-
lated indicates substantial differences of opinion on the causal forces
at work. Particularly notable is the debate over the prominence of
accessibility in determining household location. It is clear that
significant additional research is needed on the nature of the location
process.
Some of these shortcomings are carried over into holistic models.
In particular, the use of exogenous forecasts of major variables is
widespread. In determining regional levels of population and employ-
ment, the questionable assumption of constant forces continuing to
shape the future underlies most formulations.
Models treating urban centers in isolation have a serious weak-
ness. These formulations ignore important interactions with outlying
areas and their subsequent locational implications.
The location of discrete industrial facilities is currently
treated in an awkward fashion. Common units are "average facility
sizes" and "shutdown percentages" and much of the mathematics has only
a tenuous relationship to real-world phenomena.
Finally, while many models address immediate effects of changes
in transportation facilities, there is a notable lack of treatment of
the longer-term ways in which regional socio-economic changes feed
back to affect the transportation system (e.g., the phenomenon of
supply-induced demand).
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References
Each publication has been assigned a reference number, used
consistently throughout the report. The reference number includes a
Roman numeral, indicating a major classification in one of four
categories, followed in the case of Highways by a letter indicating
a major impact area.
I. Highways
A. Economic
B. Social and Demographic
C. Land Use and Land Value
D. Political/Legal
II. Mass Transit
III. Wastewater Facilities
IV. Models
An Arabic number gives the order of the publication within each
listing. Thus, reference number I-B-23 refers to: a highway-related
publication (I); the social and demographic impact area (B); and the
twenty-third publication within the category. Reference number IV-15
indicates the fifteenth publication in the model section (IV).
References in Section 1 not listed in the Bibliography are
assigned a single Arabic numeral and are given on the following pages.
36
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1. Reinsberg, M. , "The Heyday of Highway Benefits," I.C.C. Practition-
ers' Journal, Vol. XXX, No. 9, pp. 1143-1168, 1963.
2. Office of Research and Development, Bureau of Public Roads,
Highways and Economic and Social Changes, U.S. Department of
Commerce, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C.,
November 1964.
3. Horwood, E. M., C. A. Zellner, and R. L. Ludwig, "Community Conse-
quences of Highway Improvement," National Cooperative Highway
Research Program Report 18, Highway Research Board, National
Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, 1965.
4. Highway Research Board, "Urban Development Models," Special Report
97, Washington, D.C., 1968.
5. Federal Highway Administration, Economic and Social Effects of
Highways, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C.,
1972; Federal Highway Administration, Social and Economic
Effects of Highways, U.S. Department of Transportation,
Washington, D.C., 1974.
6. Fuchs, Victor R., Changes in the Location of Manufacturing in the
United States Since 1929, Yale University Press, 1962.
7. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Patterns of Commuting in Large Metro-
politan Areas: 1970, June 1973.
8. Transit Fact Book, Annual Summary of Basic Data and Trends in the
Transit Industry of the United States, 1972-73 Edition.
9. Law, E. M., "Real Estate and Population Growth Along Rapid Transit
Lines in the City of New York," The Municipal Engineers Journal,
Vol. 21, 1935.
10. Stanford Research Institute, Benefit/Cost Analysis of the Five
Corridor Transit System for Los Angeles, California, 1968.
11. Environmental Impact Center, Inc., "Secondary Impacts of Major
Investments," Unpublished.
12. Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, PL 92-500.
13. Hard data to support this contention are rare. Some appear in
Milgram's The City Expands, but are subject to alternative
interpretations. Personal discussions with local policy-makers
and citizens, however, support the general statement.
37
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14. Kneese, A. V., and B. T. Bower, Managing Water Quality: Economics,
Technology, Institutions, Resources for the Future, Inc., The
Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1968.
15. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, "Water and Sewer
Service Needs of Low and Moderate Income Households in Metro-
politan Washington," Housing Information Report No. 2, Washing-
ton, D.C., December 1972.
16. Harris, B. , "Quantitative Models of Urban Development: Their Role
in Metropolitan Policy-Making," Issues in Urban Economics, ed.
by H. Perloff and L. Wingo, The Johns Hopkins Press, pp. 363-
412, 1968.
17. Row, A., and E. Jurkat, "The Economic Forces Shaping Land Use
Patterns," Journal of the American Institute of Planners,
Vol. XXV, No. 2, p. 78, 1959.
18. Stouffer, S., "Intervening Opportunities: A Theory Relating
Mobility and Distance," American Sociological Review, Vol. 5,
December 1940.
19. Seidman, D., "A Decision-Oriented Model of Urban Growth," prepared
for Fourth Annual Conference of the International Federation of
Operations Research Societies, Boston, Massachusetts, August 1966.
20. Seidman, D., "The Construction of an Urban Growth Model," Report
Number 1, Vol. A, Philadelphia: Delaware Valley Regional
Planning Commission, 1966.
21. Little, Arthur D., Inc., San Francisco Community Renewal Program
(CRP): Purpose, Scope and Methodology, Report to Department
of City Planning, August 1963.
22. CONSAD Research Corporation, Impact Studies: NECTP, NECTP-218,
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, December 1969.
23. CONSAD Research Corporation, Impact Studies: INTRA II, NECTP-243,
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, February 1970.
38
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SECTION 2
SELECTED STUDIES
39
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic Activity and Industrial Location
40
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I-A-03.
Bardwell, George E. and P. R. Merry, "Measuring the Economic Impact of
a Limited-Access Highway on Communities, Land Use, and Land Value,"
Highway Research Board, Bulletin.268, pp. 37-73, 1960.
Summary
Impacts of bypass, limited-access highways (U.S. 85 and 87) on
business activity and land use and value in bypassed communities are
assessed. Rates of economic change and highway economic impacts are
estimated from annual sales tax data (1946 to 1957) for five industry
groupings. Land value and land use are examined using property sales
records in the "before" and "after" time periods. Three locations are
analyzed: land along new highways; old highways; and improved old
highways.
Study Area and Investment
U.S. 87, a north-south, limited-access highway through Denver,
was constructed from 1949-1956. The road bypasses seven small towns
outside Denver; economic activity in one of these towns (Brighton) is
examined to evaluate highway impact. Land sales data were examined over
the entire length of the new and old routes. Portions of U.S. 85 (the old
route) merge with 87, while other segments have been improved or remain
unimproved.
Methodology
Sales tax collections were used to measure business activity in
Brighton and in the state as a whole from 1946 to 1957. Five industry
groups believed to be highway associated were defined: (1) apparel;
(2) automotive; (3) food; (4) furniture; and (5) general merchandise.
Graphic representations for each group were constructed and rates of
change for the town and state were compared.
Land value was determined by sales price per acre during the before
and after periods, defined by the date of approval of the highway project
by federal and state authorities. Land types considered in analyzing sales
prices included: improved or unimproved land; use (grazing,-dry farm,
irrigated, or "rurban"-suburban, as determined by assessed valuation); and
location with respect to the new highway, the improved highway, or the old
highway.
Sales price per acre was related to distance (in miles) of parcel
from an urban community; size of parcel in acres; and land type.
41
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Impacts
Sales tax data indicated that the bypass did not significantly
affect the general level of business activity in Brighton. Of the five
industry groups studied, only the automotive group showed an immediate
decline in gross sales (about 13 percent per quarter for one year). There
was subsequent improvement in this activity and it was expected to reach
the level existing before the bypass. Rates of change in other industry
groups were comparable to state rates, and appeared to be independent of
highway construction.
The sales price per acre of nearly all types of rural land (whether
improved or unimproved) increased in the "after" period. There were greater
value increases among parcels located along new highways than along old
improved highways, and also greater increases for unimproved vs. improved
land. The number of transactions alongside new highways was substantially
larger than along improved old highways.
The average parcel size decreased during the "after" period, and the
average distance from a metropolitan community was greater for land sold
during this time period. Examination of land type in relation to these
two variables showed that for grazing land and "rurban"-suburban land
parcels there was no discernible pattern during the "before" period while
in the "after" period there was an inverse relationship between sales price
per acre and parcel size and distance from nearest urban area. This is
interpreted by postulating that growth of a community occurs in areas made
accessible by improved highways, and that as land becomes scarce, parcels
available for purchase are farther from the community. Examination of
similar relationships among dry farm land and irrigated land parcels were
obscured by proximity of portions of the new and old highways.
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I-A-04.
Bleile, George W. , and L. Moses, "Transportation and the Spatial Distribution
of Economic Activity," Highway Research Board, Bulletin 311, pp. 27-30,
1962.
Summary
Industrial relocation, expansion, and new location, in the Chicago
Metropolitan Area from 1950-1960 are classified by radial distance from
the central business district (inner city, city fringe, suburban rings).
Forces affecting relocation decisions are discussed and hypotheses of
locational change are tested.
Study Area and Investment
A trend toward dispersion of manufacturing activity away from the
inner city was evident in the Chicago Metropolitan Area during 1950 to 1960.
Transportation is assumed to have influenced this trend, although no specific
highway investments are cited.
Impacts
Examination of industry relocations from 1950 to 1960 by distance
from city core led to four major conclusions: (1) Distance from the central
business district (CBD) does not play a role in the decision to relocate.
Relocation of firms out of the CBD is numerically large, but in terms of
percentage, no different from other metropolitan areas. (2) Firms located
closer to the CBD are less likely to expand facilities there. (3) Industry
movement from the CBD is generally to the city fringe (not to suburbs).
(4) The "seed-bed" hypothesis that the inner city acts as a spawning
ground for new small firms is empirically supported. Small firms are
attracted to the city because of the ready availability of leased space;
loans provided by a competitive banking environment; auxiliary business
services; and a large pool of low-wage, unskilled labor.
Conclusions
The relocation decision is influenced by two conflicting sets of
forces: those favoring relocation (e.g., lower-priced land and improved
transportation); and those opposing relocation (e.g., established labor
supply and ties with firms providing services). Friction of these forces
tends to minimize the relocation distance, and may account for the small
(5 mile) median relocation distance found for this area. This friction is
also reflected in the trend to move to the urban fringe (within the political
boundaries of the city) rather than into the suburbs.
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I-A-05.
Bone, A. J. and Martin Wohl, "Massachusetts Route 128 Impact Study," Highway
Research Board, Bulletin 227, Washington, 1959.
Summary
The study examines land use changes (industrial and residential) along
a circumferential highway, Route 128, in the Boston Metropolitan area and
evaluates the impact of these changes on the metropolitan area as a whole.
Route 128 encouraged Boston area companies to relocate in newly accessible
suburban locations; it also attracted some new industries. Although the
metropolitan area as a whole experienced economic growth, the central city
lost employment. The study also found that land use and values near the
highway were influenced by its construction.
Study Area and Investment
Route 128 extends for 60 miles in a semicircle on the western side of
Boston, approximately 10 miles from the central business district. The highway,
constructed in stages from 1933-51, originally cut across large sectors of
undeveloped land between older radial highways.
Exogenous Factors
Timing was a major factor in Route 128's economic impact. The highway
made suburban land accessible at a time when many of Boston's businesses were
expanding to a point where they could no longer operate efficiently in
expensive yet obsolete buildings in the cramped central business district.
Some topographic features and zoning regulations may have reduced the highway's
effect on residential development.
Impacts
Industrial firms within one mile of the highway were classified into
four types - production, distribution, service, and research and development.
Their origin was examined to establish whether they were new to the area or
had relocated from other parts of the metropolitan region. Production and
distribution firms accounted for about 80 percent of total development in
terms of capital investment, employment, and number of firms. Over 78 percent
of all Route 128 firms had relocated from the greater Boston area (primarily
the central city). In examining net changes in industrial development, it
was estimated that the Boston area gained about $80 million in capital invest-
ment and 12,000 new jobs. The central city, however, suffered a net loss of
approximately 1,500 jobs.
Changes in residential development and land values in two towns through
which Route 128 passed were also evaluated. Residential development (number
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of units, density of units, and value of land) in town areas near the highway
or near interchanges were compared to control areas. Land values and density
of units were significantly higher for the highway zones than for control
zones; access to interchanges was more important than general proximity to
the route. The number of new units constructed and the rate of construction
depended upon the existing amount of development. In the more, developed
of the two towns, the highway had a smaller impact on residential develop-
ment, although land value increases were equivalent or greater than those in
the lesser-developed town.
A survey of Route 128 firms to establish factors that influenced their
site selection showed that'of 15 commonly cited factors, the most important
were: (1) land for expansion; (2) labor market; (3) employee access; and
(4) commercial access.
Methodology
Data for the study were collected through mailed questionnaires and
direct interviews. Residential and land price data were acquired from tax
assessors' records, and building and occupancy permits.
Conclusions
Route 128 stimulated outward relocation of existing industry. Thus,
suburban expansion occurred partly at the expense of the central city. Since,
however, the highway also attracted some new industry, the metropolitan area
as a whole experienced a net increase in industrial activity.
The highway stimulated residential development in the towns through
which it passed. Industrial and residential development can be ascribed, in
a general way, to an increase in congestion-free "regional access" resulting
from the construction of Route 128.
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I-A-06.
Bowersox, D. J., "Influence of Highways on Selection of Six Industrial
Locations," Highway Research Board, Bulletin 268, pp. 13-26, 1960.
Summary
Plant location procedures used by six Michigan industrial firms in
1957-58 are described. Surveyed firms considered highway facilities important,
but not critical in their decision making. General trends in the use of
highways by industry, and specific considerations in plant location (e.g.,
access to markets and space availability) are discussed. Several examples
of significant industrial development after highway construction are summarized
(e.g. Route 128 and the New York Thruway).
Study Area and Investment
The six plants in the study were located adjacent to free-access roads
in Michigan. They had all relocated after 1950 but they varied significantly
in size.
Impacts
All firms recognized a need for proximity to highway transportation,
but in only one case was proximity considered critical. Similarly, the type
of highway was not considered significant, except in one case. Potential
advertising or public relations benefits of location near a highway were
considered unimportant.
Methodology
Field interviews were conducted with the one or two members of each
firm who were most instrumental in the location decision. It is noted that
responses contain biases of these individuals, and that elapsed time since
relocation may have distorted perceptions of important factors in the loca-
tion decision. Interview results were checked against records of the Michigan
Economic Development Department.
Conclusions
The author concludes that "the typical firm does not fully appreciate
the total economic impact of highways on business operations." Realization
of highway impacts on cost factors is also limited. However, it is suggested
that the national trend toward increasing reliance by industry on trucking
transportation and the decreasing availability of industrial space in the
central business district will increase general recognition of the importance
of highways.
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I-A-12.
Connally, Julia A., The Sodo-Economic Impact of the Capital Beltway on
Northern Virginia, Bureau of Population and Economic Research, University
of Virginia, Charlottesville, Va., 1968.
Summary
Changes in demographic, industrial, and land use characteristics in
Northern Virginia near-the Capital Beltway (Washington, D. C.) during 1950-
1965 are identified and related to the Beltway. The Beltway increased
suburban industrial and high-density residential development and associated
land values. Low-density residential development was not influenced signi-
ficantly, nor were the values of single-family homes. The Beltway appears
to have reinforced, rather than altered, existing trends toward suburbaniza-
tion. The Beltway interchange areas have emerged as focal points for new
and intensive development in Northern Virginia.
Study Area and Investment
The area under study, located south and southwest of Washington, D. C.,
included Fairfax County and parts of the City of Alexandria in Northern
Virginia. The area has experienced rapid growth since 1950. Population
grew from 91,000 to 363,000 between 1950 and 1965. Development prior to
1950 was primarily along radial arteries to Washington.
The Capital Beltway was constructed in the early 1950's as a by-pass
around Washington, D. C. and as a link to the growing Virginia and Maryland
suburbs. Sixty-six miles long, it lies approximately 10 miles from the
central city and encircles the most densely populated portions of the
metropolitan area.
Methodology
Land use data were gathered from aerial photographs and compared to
tax assessment records for consistency. Assessment records were also used
to determine property values, with estimated values of building improvements
subtracted to reflect true land value appreciation. Three groups were
surveyed to determine use of the Beltway: shoppers; residents of apartments
near the highway; and industries located near the Beltway.
Impacts
General analysis indicates that the pre-beltway radial development
trend persisted, but a circumferential pattern was added following Beltway
construction.
47
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A. narrow band along both sides of the Beltway captured the largest
share of growth. Development in this area was attributed to the highway.
Parts of the study area further away from the highway and the central city
experienced low-density, primarily residential, development with no
apparent effects from the Beltway.
Land close to the highway and zoned industrial, commercial, or
high-density residential increased most in value. Single-family residential
land appreciated in value independently of distance to the Beltway.
The Beltway interchange areas have emerged as the focal points for
new and intensive development in Northern Virginia. The interchanges contain
several multi-family developments, a shopping area, and one of the region's
largest employers. Current construction and rezoning indicate intensive
uses are continuing.
The major burden of controlling the impact of the Beltway on land
development was placed on traditional zoning policy. Zoning boards were
not able to withstand consistently the intense development pressure generated
by the Beltway.
The influence of the Beltway on industrial growth was reflected in
responses to the industrial survey. Some 80 percent of the managers
questioned stated that either the Beltway route or access to the route was
a significant factor in site selection. Beltway sites apparently were
preferred in spite of limited access to blue collar workers. However, a
survey of workers in Beltway apartments revealed that labor market boundaries
were expanded by construction of the highway. More than 50 percent of those
interviewed commuted to work via the Beltway. Most respondents viewed the
Beltway as a connector to arterial roads into and out of the city.
Suburban retail sales in Northern Virginia showed no consistent
change as a result of the Beltway. Shopper interviews revealed only a
small percentage of Beltway users. Thus the Beltway does not appear to have
expanded suburban market areas in any dramatic fashion.
Conclusions
The Capital Beltway was an important factor in the development of
Northern Virginia. Local conditions (saturation of land east of the Beltway
and rapid growth of the Washington, D. C. area as a whole) made the impact
of the highway greater than what it might have been otherwise. The Beltway
apparently did not cause new growth, but rather helped determine its
location. Economic and residential decentralization, a dominant trend prior
to construction of the highway, continued subsequent to construction. The
Beltway allowed more diffuse, rather than strictly radial, suburbanization.
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I-A-24.
Froiran, Gary, ed., Transport Investment and Economic Development, The Brookings
Institute, Transport Research Program, Washington, D. C., 1965.
Summary
The role of transportation investments in stimulating economic
development and the normative design of national transportation policies to
achieve social and economic goals of undeveloped countries are discussed in
a series of articles. The discussions cover policy strategies for maximizing
national output and for optimizing interregional economic and demographic
distributions. The treatment ranges from purely theoretical to largely
empirical, with the majority of articles concentrating on theoretical aspects
of economic development.
The first essay (Chapter II) focuses on objectives of transportation
given both economic and noneconomic goals and effects. The economic character-
istics of alternative transport modes economies of scale, capital intensity,
flexibility, and so forth are examined in Chapter III. The next chapter
discusses technological change in transportation and describes some future
possibilities for lowering costs and increasing mobility.
Chapter V discusses problems in design of the transport sector of an
economic development plan. The next essay outlines a comprehensive, dynamic
planning model and discusses its implications for wage, pricing, regional,
and transportation policies. A review of the role of transportation in
Soviet development follows. The next article suggests that application of
regional linear programming techniques should enable countries to plan and
manage the development process with greater efficiency.
Chapter IX describes cost-benefit evaluation as a tool in establishing
priorities for transport projects. Chapter X explores the implications of
different pricing schemes and proposes a multi-part charging scheme for
obtaining full cost recovery. Inadequate consideration of financing require-
ments can have grave consequences on the availability of public investment
funds and may create inflationary pressures, discussed in Chapter XI. The
final essay examines a decision to construct railroads in Chile.
Conclusions
On a national level, transportation plays a multi-faceted role in
achieving developmental objectives. Not only does it permit the necessary
transfer of goods and people between and within production and consumption
centers, but it also shifts production possibilities by altering relative
cost factors through decreased transport costs. Transportation is also a
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consumption good in itself. The selection of a specific mix of transport
modes can heighten any of these roles and their subsequent impacts on
development.
The derivation of a comprehensive transportation plan for a developing
country involves the recognition of practical constraints in maximizing long-
term national productivity and welfare. The setting of goals should include
minimum acceptable gains as well as desired gains for a full range of social
and economic objectives.
Finally, it is pointed out that in an already developed country with
an existing, effective transport network, new transportation investments
if they are of standard technology alter mobility and relative costs only
marginally and therefore do not have a profound influence on the growth or
distribution of economic activities.
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I-A-25.
Gamble, H. B., D. L. Raphael, and 0. H. Sauerlender, "Direct and
Indirect Economic Impacts of Highway Interchange Development,"
Highway Research Record, Number 149, pp. 42-55, 1966.
Summary
An analysis of expected economic impacts of the Keystone Shortway
(1-80) on Clinton County, Pennsylvania was conducted using a static
Leontief input-output model. The basic model consisted of 54 economic
sectors, each representing a type of economic activity within the county.
The flow of funds from each sector to the others was represented by
coefficients derived from a transactions matrix^ Previous research
results on predicting interchange development provided a basis for evaluating
future interchange development in the study area. Direct and indirect econo-
mic impacts were derived under two assumptions local ownership of the new
enterprises or chain (non-local) management.
Study Area and Investment
The Keystone Shortway is a four-lane, limited access, toll-free
highway crossing Pennsylvania from Youngstown, Ohio in the west to
Stroudsburg, Pa. in the east. The Clinton County portion of the highway
was scheduled to be constructed last; four interchanges were planned within
the county.
Methodology
Primary 1964 data sources were used to construct the basic economic
model, using interview, questionnaires, and sampling techniques. Fifty-four
economic activity sectors were identified. A transactions matrix was con-
structed showing total value in dollars of purchases of one sector from
every other sector, and total amounts of money flowing into or out of each
sector from the outside world. A set of technical coefficients representing
the proportionate distribution of income, as expenditures, to other sectors
of the region and to the outside world was constructed from the transactions
matrix. Given a set of external incomes to the various sectors of the
region and the set of coefficients, the economy of the region could be
simulated. The model could be altered by: (1) changing the level of
outside sales or export demand; (2) changing the technical coefficients of
any economic sector; or (3) adding new sectors to represent new businesses.
Previous research on interchange development identified significant
exogenous factors (e.g., topography, distance from key cities, age of
interchange) and important endogenous factors (e.g., population at inter-
51
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change, public utilities at interchange, existing development at or near
site) governing the rate of development. Although quantitative relations
between these factors and development were not available, the authors
evaluated these factors in conjunction with specific data on the four
proposed interchange sites, and forecasted four types of development
a trucking terminal, a 100-unit motel, four service stations, and two new
restaurants. Three new sectors were added to the model to represent these
establishments. (The trucking terminal was considered a relocation, and
a new model sector was not necessary.)
Impacts
Impact analysis was carried out assuming: (a) increase in non-local
retail purchasing plus impact of the three new activity sectors when
restaurants and motel are under non-local ownership; and (b) the same as
(a) except that restaurants and motel are locally owned.
Total economic activity in the county under local ownership of new
facilities increases by about $5 million per year; of this, about $2.2
million is new money from outside the county. These external sales
generate an additional $2.8 million of economic activity internally,
yielding a multiplier of 2.27. Non-local ownership leads to a smaller total
increase ($4.7 million) because the multiplier, 2.17, is smaller.
Much of the gain in total economic activity involves counting the
same dollar as it passes from one business to another. The net residual
benefit or income to households, local governments and nonprofit organiza-
tions is a more accurate measure of economic benefits. About 40% of external
sales (or 18% of total economic activity generated) accrues as net residual
income under local ownership, with the bulk (34%) to households, 4% to local
government and 2% to nonprofit organizations.
Gains in the total economic activity generated indirectly are
primarily in retail, wholesale, government and industry.
Results are also computed by impact response functions constructed
for each one of thirteen aggregated sectors formed from the original
54 sector model. The functions are linear combinations of increases in
external income according to service (new restaurants, motels, service
stations, and new retail external income) multiplied by coefficients
derived from the direct and indirect response of each sector to one dollar
of external income from the various new income sources. Calculations using
response functions are in good agreement with results obtained from the
input-output model.
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I-A-26.
Garrison, William L., B. J. L. Berry, D. F. Marble, J. D. Nystuen and
R. L. Merrill, Studies of Highway Development and Geographic Change,
University of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington, 1959.
Summary
The impact of highways and highway improvements on retail business
and residential land use are discussed theoretically and through analysis
of a series of case studies. Impacts of highways on customer movement
(in connection with retail business location) and on delivery of services
are also discussed. Geographical structure is the central theme of these
related analyses.
Highways and Retail Business
A review of empirical and theoretical work on the spatial ordering
of urban land use suggests that the retail business structure of a city
has two basic conformations: string street development and clusters
(hierarchically structured from central business districts (CBD) to
neighborhood facilities). Analyses of business location in Spokane,
Wash., Phoenix, Ariz., and Cincinnati, Ohio and along U.S. 99 in the
State of Washington show consistent patterns in terms of these two con-
formations for different types of spatially associated business. In
particular, a group of business types which tend to co-locate on "automobile
rows" are identified; another group of highway-oriented businesses are
successful only when located on urban arterials or on highway strips.
Impact of highway changes on business establishments is discussed
with particular reference to Marysville, a small city in Washington bypassed
in 1954. A variety of sensitivity indices are used to characterize the
short-run sales records of business establishments in Marysville before and
after highway re-orientation.
The conclusion drawn from the empirical studies is that almost
without exception, retail business location patterns are determined by the
network of highways. They generally conform to efficient arrangements of
specialization dependent on transportation availability.
Highways and Urban Residential Land Use
The relation of residential spatial structure to the urban road
network is discussed in terms of general models of urban growth and struc-
ture and in terms of factors determining residential site selection by
individual households. A number of case studies are reviewed, particularly
a study based on travel diaries in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The relatively
brief discussion of the many factors involved in residential site develop-
ments concludes that it is difficult to measure the effect of highway
improvements on residential land use within a city.
53 .
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Customer Movement and Retail Business Location
The same primary data on Cedar Rapids are used to define how people
move to obtain services of retail business. The spatial relation of
businesses to their customers' home locations, and the association of a
business with other businesses as established by customers' habits of
shopping for more than one item on a single trip, are examined in detail.
Empirically, it is found that customer travel resembles the expected
pattern but with some important exceptions. The average distance traveled
for low order goods is much greater than expected. Persons travel through
low level centers to high level centers to purchase items available at
low level centers. A combination of purposes often motivates longer trips.
Analysis of shopping stops on multipurpose trips shows a wide range of
association only generally resembling the spatial arrangement of business
establishments.
Highways and Services
Introductory discussions and review of pertinent literature on the
relationship of highways, service areas, and the movement of persons with
particular reference to demand for physician care are followed by an account
of empirical observations of movement of persons to physicians in Western
Pennsylvania and Seattle, Washington. These studies suggest that producers
of services gain most from highway construction in areas where trade and
consumption may increase. Consumers pay more, but receive more, and possibly
better, care. Where trade and consumption are relatively inelastic, con-
sumers gain most- through transport cost savings (primarily vehicular
benefits). New highways help central cities to retain expenditures of
wealthy suburban residents but also serve to aggravate the relative disparity
between rural-small town and large urban center; at the same time, they help
rural-small towns to consume more easily the more specialized services.
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I-A-27.
Grossman, David A. and M. R. Levin, "Area Development and Highway
Transportation," Highway Research Record, Number 16, pp. 24-31,
1963.
Summary
Highway effects are examined for three major types of economically
distressed areas: manufacturing-based regions (the textile cities of
New England); mining regions (areas in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and
Kentucky); and agricultural regions (Appalachia). Stimulation of economic
growth by highways is slight in mining or agricultural regions. However,
case studies show that manufacturing areas can be stimulated when a highway
provides access to a nearby metropolitan area with a more diversified
economy.
Study Area and Investment
The New England textile industry has experienced continuing
employment declines since the 1920's due to automation, relocation, and
international competition. Four former textile cities in Massachusetts
were examined: Lowell and Lawrence (approximately 25 miles from Boston)
and Fall River and New Bedford (40-50 miles from Boston). These cities
were connected by radial expressways to Route 128, a circumferential high-
way 10-15 miles from Boston.
Distressed mining areas generally suffer from resource depletion,
competition from other raw materials, and from effects of increased mechani-
zation. Some areas also have mountainous topography (e.g., eastern Kentucky
and West Virginia) and are relatively inaccessible.
Mechanization and surplus agricultural production may produce dis-
tressed agricultural areas. In some instances, e.g., southern Appalachia,
whole regions fail to remain competitive in the national agricultural
economy.
Other distressed areas include areas formerly dependent on the
railroad industry, on discontinued government or military installations,
and some resort or recreation centers.
Impacts
Highway improvements in Lowell and Lawrence increased significantly
the radius of easy commuting for workers living in these areas and enabled
them to hold jobs in the growing electronics and research industries along
Route 128. These improvements also increased the attractiveness to manu-
facturers of industrial sites in these areas by making accessible a large
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labor force in close physical proximity to Boston.
The cities of Fall River and New Bedford were also linked to the
Boston area by radial highways. However, their greater distance (approxi-
mately twice that of Lowell and Lawrence) has diminished the spillover of
industry, suburban residents, and other favorable economic effects from
metropolitan Boston.
Mining areas are often small and lack urban facilities and services
which attract manufacturing industries; improvement of their economic base
is difficult. Areas within reasonable distance of metropolitan development
can sometimes be helped by highways (e.g., eastern Pennsylvania). However,
improved highways generally have slight economic impact.
Only a small role can be played by highways in meeting the enormous
needs of distressed agricultural areas. Agricultural areas are often low-
density regions, with small urban areas and top'ographical obstacles to
accessibility. Expressways in such areas have low benefit-cost ratios.
Improved secondary roads may be worthwhile undertakings in such areas.
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I-A-28.
Harrison, J. W., "Methods Used to Study Effects of Lexington City,
Virginia Bypass on Business Volumes and Composition," Highway Research
Board, Bulletin 189, pp. 96-110, 1958.
Summary
A case study of a rural county in Virginia is used to describe and
assess methodologies for determining economic effects of a bypass highway.
Three study areas comprising a town of 6,500 people bypassed in 1955 are
contrasted with four control areas elsewhere in the county. Business
volumes of three selected retail trades were examined using the "before
and after" methodology and the "study area-control area" approach. The
author concludes that the latter provides a more complete analysis of
economic highway impacts.
Study Area and Investment
The study area (Rockbridge County, Va.) is a broad valley region
with agriculture and manufacturing the main income sources. The investment
studied was a bypass highway opened in 1955.
Impacts
Business volumes in the downtown area generally declined, due to
a locational shift toward fringe areas. The three retail trades examined
showed the following trends:
Service stations in the principal (downtown) study area suffered
a loss of sales; those near the fringe area recorded increases greater than
for any of the control areas.
Automotive dealers showed increased volumes and income in all study
areas. Control area comparisons were limited due to differences in the
nature of individual businesses.
Restaurants appeared to be influenced by non-highway factors not
readily identifiable from data collected in the "before and after" study.
It is suggested that this business may be insensitive to highway changes.
Methodology
Data used were: business license applications; county files providing
details of business type, location, ownership, date begun, gross income,
number of employees, and rental value; and annual gasoline sales. The trades
chosen for analysis were believed to be those most likely to reflect impacts
of the highway.
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Linear equations and regression analysis techniques were used for
data analysis. A price index was developed to account for general economic
trends. The author points out that it is difficult to isolate highway
impacts; the data collected in this study were not sufficient to elucidate
many causal factors. Additional data sources and a longer study period
are recommended for future analyses.
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I-A-29.
Horwood, Edgar M., R. R. Boyce, L. L. Randolph, and D. F. Rieg, Studies
of the Central Business District and Urban Freeway Development,
University of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington, 1959.
Summary
Changes in the Central Business Districts (CBD) of a broad cross
section of U.S. cities are examined from 1946 to 1958. Relative economic
activity in the CBD, as measured by retail sales and office space, declined
during this period. The probable impact on the CBD of the urban freeway
system (under construction in 1958) is'assessed from freeway physical
characteristics, geographical patterns, and general relations of highways
to CBD economic activity.
Methodology
The CBD core and the CBD frame are defined and differentiated in terms
of land and site utilization, building types, vertical and horizontal components
of growth, business linkages, parking space, transportation modes and foci,
and type of boundary determinants. Changes in retail and office space in
the CBD were analyzed for a broad section of American cities utilizing
U.S. Census of Business statistics and standard correlation techniques.
Similar analyses were conducted for electrical utility offices and banking.
Additionally, a questionnaire survey of the 150 largest insurance companies
yielded about 70 usable replies on locational decisions.
Interactions between changes in CBD characteristics and urban freeway
systems were explored by analyzing the physical characteristics of the highway
networks (radials, circumferentials, and inner-distributors), their geographical
pattern, and their probable impact on CBD activities. The analysis is
generally qualitative.
I. Changes of Commercial Characteristics of the CBD (1946-1958)
a. Retail Business
Considering the vast geographical and economic differences between
regions of the country, there is comparatively little difference in CBD retail
sales per capita for different cities. The percentage of CBD to total city
sales decreases as city size increases, but only slightly in cities above
150,000 population. The greatest change in the shift of sales from the CBD
to outlying areas occurs as cities approach about 150,000. From 1948 to 1954
there was a general decline, in terms of constant 1948 dollars, of CBD retail
sales ranging from 1 to 2% in urban areas of 100,000 people to 14% in those
of 1 million. During this period there was also a substantial decrease in
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CBD sales per capita ranging from 14% in areas of 100,000 to 28% in areas
of 3 million people.
b. Office Space
There was a general increase in central office space between 1946 and
1956, amounting to 1 or 2% in a city of about 200,000 and about 12% in a city
of 3 million. However, per capita office space downtown decreased by approxi-
mately the same amount. In 1956, an urbanized area of 1 million people
added office space at the rate of 3 square feet per capita; a city of
2 million added just under 5 square feet per capita.
Cities high in central place importance (e.g., regional capitals such
as Denver, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Seattle) which are not generally part
of large conurbations (i.e., grouped cities like those along the Atlantic
seaboard) had considerably more office space than average.
Cities with considerable less office space than average were either
located in areas with a declining economic base (e.g., Scranton and Reading),
or located within the area of economic dominance of a much larger city
(e.g., Providence), or were predominately manufacturing cities (e.g., Detroit).
c. Insurance Companies
Of the 69 companies reporting, 63 moved headquarters or regional offices
from the CBD core and 6 from the CBD frame between 1946 and 1958. No company
moved from an outlying location to the CBD. In fact, 60% of all moves were
to outlying areas.
Fifteen of the companies moved their headquarters office during the
period from 1946 to 1958. Of these, 4 moved to the suburbs of a city, 2 to
incorporated areas over five miles from the central city, and 9 to an incor-
porated area adjacent to a central city. Areas of comparatively dense
residential settlement were considered more favorable for new offices than
less built-up unincorporated areas.
Little relationship exists between city size and the degree of
suburbanization of insurance company offices. In the case of large cities,
the extreme concentration of many insurance headquarters offices in the CBD
core of the eastern seaboard insurance centers tends to offset, statistically,
suburban movements in other cities of the country.
On the basis of the companies responding to the survey, the insurance
industry has decentralized approximately 40% from the CBD core and 30% from
combined central locations (CBD core plus CBD frame) between 1946 and 1958.
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d. Banking
As a city increases in population, both banking outlets and deposits
show a definite increase in all location zones, but at differing rates.
Larger cities have a smaller percentage of total city deposits in the CBD
core, but even the largest cities have over 75% of total city deposits in
downtown locations. Banks with smaller deposits are most often found in
suburban locations, whereas banks with very large deposits are almost
always located in the CBD core. In any given metropolitan area, total
deposits in distance bands from the CBD core appear to be inversely related
to distance from the CBD.
II. Urban Freeway Systems and Their Impacts
a. General Impacts
Developing (1958) freeway systems are composed of three distinguishable
elements: radials to serve intercity travel and the centrally, oriented
intraurban trip; circumferentials to serve as bypass routes and meet trip
desires between outlying centers; and inner-distributors to collect and dis-
tribute traffic to and from radials and to serve as inner city bypasses.
The CBD frame, in contrast to the CBD core, is primarily dependent on
external linkages, and its development will be substantially affected by
.-freeway routes and interchanges. These will alter establishment linkages,
remove large quantities of central land from the market, and sever homo-
geneous business clusters. At the same time the inner-distributor freeways
cutting through the CBD frame will increase transportatibn centrality for
warehousing, wholesaling, and service industries characteristically occupying
frame locations. The CBD frame will probably show greater highway impacts
than the CBD core.
b. Specific Impacts
No correlation was found between level of sales in the CBD and degree
of urban freeway development in 1956. This may change as the freeway system
is completed.
Among insurance companies responding to the questionnaire, all companies
establishing new offices chose locations adjacent to major arterials or within
a mile of a major arterial. Seven of fifteen new offices were located with
frontages on arterials.
Most banks located in outlying areas of an urban center are found on
or near state or interstate highways. This coincidence is probably more
indicative of an attachment of banks to commercial districts on these routes
than to the highway itself.
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I-A-30.
Horwood, E. M., C. A. Zellner, and R. L. Ludwig, "Community Consequences
of Highway Improvement," National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Report 18. 1965.
Summary
Economic impact studies published prior to 1965 on non-user or
community consequences of highway improvements were reviewed according to
type of investment (bypass, circumferential, urban radial freeways).
Studies within each investment category were analyzed in terms of methodology,
indicator variables, impact areas addressed, and findings. A computer-based
impact classification system was developed to assist in comparative analysis.
A mail questionnaire survey and field interviews of highway planners in
selected states'were used to assess the utility of such studies in highway
planning.
Study Area and Investment
Twenty four studies of bypasses affecting 72 communities of varying
sizes were reviewed. Six studies of urban circumferential highways in
metropolitan areas (Lexington, Ky. ; Louisville, Ky.; Minneapolis-St. Paul,
Minn.; Washington, D. C.; Baltimore, Md.; and Boston, Mass.) were summarized.
Urban radial freeway studies included highways in four major metropolitan
areas Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Atlanta.
Impacts
Analysis of results of bypass studies showed that communities with
population of 5,000 or more were better able to adjust to economic changes
induced by a bypass than were smaller communities. Highway-oriented businesses
(food, fuel, and lodging) were most strongly affected; service stations and
restaurants appeared to adjust more easily than motels or hotels. Sales of
non-highway-oriented retail businesses (e.g., apparel and furniture) in bypassed
communities generally increased after construction of the new highway. Apparent-
ly, loss of sales to transients was compensated by the extended trade area
provided by the new road. General economic indicators (land use, property
values, employment, industrial development) were also briefly summarized.
The general conclusion drawn from bypass studies (though substantiated
in only one case) was that bypassed towns within 15 to 25 miles of larger areas
along the same highway suffer substantially; conversely, the larger or more
centrally located communities along the transportation system are probably
substantial beneficiaries of highway improvement, even though bypassed, at the
expense of their smaller sister cities.
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Impacts of urban circumferential roads included a significant
reduction in agricultural acreage, and rapid and intensive development
along belt routes, with commercial land showing the greatest increase in
value. Land use, land value, motor vehicle registrations, average daily
traffic, and gasoline sales were used as impact indicators.
An analysis of urban radial freeway studies showed that land value
increases were largest for vacant or unimproved land; that land value com-
puted with improvement value deducted increased in value two to three times
more than that of land inclusive of improvements; and that in the majority
of cases, the value of land abutting the highway exceeded that of land further
removed as well as land in control areas.
Methodology
The authors identified, several important factors in comparing bypass
studies. These included: time span studied; comparability of facilities;
selection of geographic boundaries; and scope of economic change considered.
The lack of standardization in treating these and other factors in impact
analysis makes comparison of studies difficult. In all studies a major
problem was isolating highway impacts from other influences.
Radial corridor studies (as of 1965) had three general shortcomings
use of assessed valuation as a criterion, bias of the sample of land values,
and nature of control areas.
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I-A-33.
Kiley, E. Y. , "Highways as a Factor in Industrial Location." Highway Research
Record, Number 75, pp. 48-52, 1965.
Summary^
A nationwide questionnaire survey of newly located business establish-
ments between 1955 and 1959 sought to determine the most important factor in
plant location decisions for a variety of industries. The single most
frequently mentioned -factor was proximity to good highways, but market, labor,
and land availability were also rated important. Responses indicate that the
relative importance of locational factors varies sharply from industry to
industry. The results also reflect a pronounced outward movement of industry
from central city to suburban and rural locations.
Study Approach
A questionnaire was mailed to some 4,150 establishments which had:
(1) begun business for the first time; (2) opened a new branch plant; (3)
moved to a new'location; or (4) expanded at an old location. The sample
covered 22 SIC groups, including a cross-section of manufacturing, wholesaling,
distribution, and research and development firms. Slightly over 36 percent
of the questionnaires were returned; 1,363 were considered responsive and
were utilized in the statistical analyses of the study.
Each questionnaire contained the following 13 factors commonly con-
sidered in business location decisions: availability of suitable land,
proximity to markets, availability of raw materials, abundant water supply,
proximity to good highways, availability of rail service, proximity to
related industry, abundant labor supply, favorable tax structure, existence
of building at site, favorable leasing or financing, nearby vocational train-
ing facilities, and community cultural-recreational assets. Recipients were
asked to select the five most important factors in the selection of their sites.
The survey included several other questions on employment and transportation,
as well as three essay-type questions.
Findings
The four factors mentioned most frequently were, in order: proximity
to good highways, abundant labor supply, availability of suitable land, and
proximity to markets. Essay responses showed that highway proximity reflected
a desire for effective transportation of goods, employees, and customers, as
well as advertising provided by highway exposure.
Rail service, raw materials, favorable tax structures, favorable
financing, abundant water supply, and proximity of related industry were
considered important by some industry groups, but their relative importance
varied sharply among industries.
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Survey results show a pronounced trend toward decentralization of
industry. More than 48 percent of the respondents were located in small
towns or rural areas, 26 percent in suburbs, while only 24 percent were
in cities. However, large, market-oriented businesses, such as the whole-
sale trade group, were concentrated (78 percent) in or near large cities.
About half of the respondents had moved from a different location.
Of these, 23 percent moved from city to rural areas, and 24 percent moved
from city to suburbs, while only 22 percent moved from one city location
to another. Almost no firms moved from outside cities to city locations.
Conclusions
The survey suggests that a small number of factors dominate the
location decisions of most business enterprises, and that highway proximity
is one of them. Increased accessibility provided by highways combined with
available markets and labor helps make specific locations attractive to
businesses.
The outward trend in industrial location coupled with the importance
attached to availability of suitable land, suggest that suburban and rural
areas are attractive to industry because they contain relatively large and
inexpensive parcels of land. Highways, perhaps, catalyze the movement by
making outlying areas more accessible.
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I-A-34.
Kirmard, William N. and Z. S. Malinowski, Highways as a Factor in Small
Manufacturing Plant Location Decisions, University of Connecticut, 1961.
Summary
A conceptual framework for analyzing location decisions of industrial
firms, a review of the findings of previous studies in this area, and a
case study of manufacturing firms in the Hartford economic area are presented.
Executives of seventy-six manufacturing firms located in the Hartford area
between January 1953 and June 1959 were interviewed. An additional 124
manufacturing firms were queried by mail about their new plants. The two
sets of data were combined to develop a statistical picture of the pattern
of highway proximity and access actually achieved by firms with different
plant or location characteristics.
Study Area and Investment
Hartford and twenty surrounding communities in north-central Connecticut
comprise a prosperous, medium- to high-density urban center of one-half million
people, heavily industrialized and rapidly growing at the time of the study
(1960). Industry was concentrated in small (less than 50 employees) metals
and aircraft parts firms with a continuing trend in that direction. The
existing network of urban highways in and near Hartford was studied as a
factor influencing locational decisions. Other factors affecting location
decisions, but considered exogenous in the study, were zoning and sewers in
the 21 towns and several bridges.
Methodology
Newly located (320 firms) or relocated (135 firms) in the Hartford
area from 1953 through 1959 were canvassed by mail. Two hundred firms res-
ponded; 76 were interviewed about their locational choice. These included
primarily the larger responding firms, those which had relocated (vs. newly
formed firms), and metals manufacturing firms outside the Hartford area.
The interviewer did not stress highway factors, but sought the respondents'
freely expressed opinions of important factors. Interview results were
correlated with distance of the plant from the highway and price paid for
land and/or building (whether purchase or rental price).
The authors define three levels on which the location decision takes
place: (1) primary - factors which delineate a broad region; (2) secondary -
factors narrowing the decision to one or a few communities within the region;
and (3) tertiary - actual site selection. Also, three types of selection
factors are identified: market access; cost; and "non-economic." Highway
transportation is typically a cost factor at the tertiary level.
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Impacts
In general, the network of existing roads, rather than any one highway
or road, seemed to influence the locational decision process. Firms tended
to take the highway system for granted. What a firm maintained that it did
in selecting a plant site and what field inspection indicated was often at
variance: metals manufacturers generally claimed to consider highways as
an important factor in location, but non-metals firms were actually more
likely to locate closer to a highway.
Many firms did not need particularly good access, and found avoidance
of congestion associated with highway locations more significant in plant
site selection. However, if all other factors were essentially equal, manu-
facturing firms tended to choose a location offering best highway access, or
to reject a location offering poor access or high congestion.
Highway access did not rank high among reasons given for selection
of plant site; nor were highway access and/or reduced congestion"significant
reasons for leaving a previous manufacturing plant location. Manufacturers
will rarely pay a premium for an on-highway site.
Access is measured quite differently by firms with varied operational
requirements (e.g., "good access" may mean direct entry onto a high-speed
dual highway or a site over two miles from the nearest state or federal
highway).
Larger firms are more sensitive to highway access as a location factor;
they are most likely to place great weight on highways or to ignore them
completely. They are also most likely to locate closest to or farthest
away from a highway.
Manufacturers purchasing space tend to weigh highway access more heavily
than firms renting space.
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I-A-36.
Kuehn, John A. and Jerry West, "The Ozarks: Highways and Regional Development,"
Growth and Change: A Journal of Regional Development, Vol. 2, No. 3,
pp. 23-28, July 1971.
Summary
The role of highway development in regional planning for depressed areas
is discussed based on relations between highway type and type and amount of
industrial employment. Data on the Ozark region from 1954 to 1963 show highways
not to be a crucial factor in explaining income variations or labor force
characteristics. Access and local roads have a somewhat higher correlation
to income. The study challenges the hypothesis that highways generate economic
growth. It suggests that economic development depends on many regional char-
acteristics and that highways should not be the focus of regional planning for
depressed areas.
Study Area and Investment
The Ozark region includes parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma.
The area is characterized by low per capita income, dependence on agriculture,
high out-migration, chronic unemployment, lack of economic opportunity, inferior
education, and inadequate community services. Federal decision making exog-
enously effects the area through the allocation of development money and
programs. The highway types looked at are classified by type: multilane,
federal, state, local, unpaved, access, and feeder roads.
Impacts
Impacts are per capita income, labor force characteristics and type of
industry for entire region. Changes in these factors over the period 1954-1963
were correlated with number of miles of each type of multilane, federal, state,
local, unpaved, access, and feeder roads. Highway data were collected from
maps and state highway departments. Rank correlation was used to relate
mileage by type in each county to per capita income and labor force character-
istics. Five year time lags were used in calculating highway effects.
Highways were only moderately related to per capita income. Access
and local roads showed a somewhat higher correlation. Highway types showed
almost no correlation to labor force characteristics. Access highways
(primarily federal) were slightly related to chemical, transportation equip-
ment and metal aircraft industry levels. Local unpaved roads were slightly
correlated with the level of the food processing industry.
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I-A-40.
Maiolo, John R. , ed., Highways and Communities, Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, Pennsylvania, June 1966.
Summary
Three articles summarize and consolidate findings of projects
conducted under the Pennsylvania State University research program.
The discussions cover prediction of growth at interchange locations;
design of land use plans for highway protection at interchange locations;
and identification of social conditions and community structures conducive
to regulation of roadside growth. The focus of the studies is the Inter-
state Highway System, planned to include 1,574 miles of limited access
highway in the state, along with 217 interchanges.
Methodologies, Investments, and Impacts
Monroeville Case Study
An historical case analysis was conducted in Monroeville, Pennsylvania
from 1949 to 1957 when three major highway developments were completed: the
Greater Pittsburgh Interchange of the Pennsylvania Turnpike (opened in 1951);
a four-lane highway connecting the town to Pittsburgh (opened in 1953); and
a route through Monroeville, widened to four lanes in 1957.
Before and after and control area methodologies were used to assess
social and economic impacts. Sources for the study were local, county,
state, and federal government data; interviews with householders and business-
men; and field observations.
Government expenditures and school expenditures showed large increases
in Monroeville from 1950-1957 988% and 588% respectively. The value of
real property rose 336%, as compared to a control area increase of 74%.
Population increased in the study area by 119% as opposed to 25% in control
areas (1950-1958). All other variables showed significantly larger increases
in the study area, and these included: number of real estate transfers
(212% vs. 3%); power connections (104% vs. 45%); taxes levied for all
purposes (306% vs. 76%); and taxes for real estate (311% vs. 73%). A
comparison of change in communities with and without highways in this area
of the state also indicated significantly larger increases in areas with
highways.
Economic Development at Interchanges
Economic development at. 36 non-urban interchanges of the Interstate
Highway System in Pennsylvania located beyond the urbanized area peripheries
was assessed. Data were obtained on the following variables: type of
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interchange; average daily traffic (ADT); distance to nearest urbanized
area; age of interchange; topography; population; and market value
characteristics.
An average of 1.9 units of development per interchange were recorded.
The total for the 36 interchanges included 20 service stations, 15 restaurants,
11 motels, 10 industries (all located at one interchange), and 12 'other'
new establishments. Average daily traffic (ADT) on Interstate routes was
a poor indicator of development. However, ADT on the cross-route was
the best single indicator of total highway-oriented development. Twelve
intersections having above average ADT on cross-routes accounted for 62%
of all development.
Topography and distance to the nearest urban area were also signifi-
cant variables. In general, development tended to be at interchanges
nearest to an urban area. Of 19 interchanges within 14 miles of an urban
area, all but 2 had some development. In contrast, only 5 of 17 inter-
changes located more than -14 miles from an urban area experienced some
development.
Topography appeared to be a significant factor. Excessive slopes
(over six percent average slope) tend to minimize development. Thus,
average development was only 0.5 units at interchanges with excessive slopes,
but was 3.0 units at interchanges with 2-3 percent slope.
Substantial economic development occurred during the first year after
an interchange was opened. Development occurred at a slower rate in subse-
quent years. Gasoline stations showed decreasing development rates after
the first five years following interchange opening.
Community Impacts
A third study addressed unplanned development along highway rights-
of-way and at interchange sites and its relation to community structure.
Case studies were conducted in Monroeville (14 miles east of downtown
Pittsburgh); Blairsville (45 miles east of Pittsburgh); and in four sub-
urban interchange communities near York, Pennsylvania.
The research was incomplete at time of reporting; however, certain
findings on community organization, social stratification, and population
are presented and interpreted.
A community complexity index was defined as the weighted sum of a
series of factors considered necessary for the development of a master plan
(e.g., land subdivision control, sewer authority, planning commission, etc.).
Communities on arterial highways in Pennsylvania averaged higher scores of
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the index than non-highway communities. In the case study areas, there
were significant increases in the complexity index during the study period,
except for some areas of York County.
Population changes during the study period were analyzed in terms
of socioeconomic level of those migrating into the community after highway
improvement. Statistically significant differences in social class ratings
between migrants and non-migrants were found; the influx of new residents
tended to raise the overall social class of the communities.
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I-A-43.
McKain, Walter C., The Connecticut Turnpike - A Ribbon of Hope, University
of Connecticut, Storrs Agricultural Experiment Station, 1965.
Summary
A comprehensive analysis was conducted of the impact of the Connecticut
Turnpike using before and after and control area techniques. Impacts
examined include economic changes (employment, wages, industry diversification,
number and type of manufacturing industries, labor market availability, retail
and tourist trades), demographic changes (skill levels, local government and
community services, attitudes toward change), and land use and land values.
The study covers the period 1956-1962 for most parameters; the highway was
opened in 1958.
The turnpike was planned and constructed to stimulate an economically
depressed area. The economic impact of the highway, although significant,
was not as substantial as anticipated. An attempt is made to analyze factors
which inhibited expected economic growth.
Study Area and Investment
The Connecticut Turnpike is a 129-mile, four lane, limited access
Interstate highway, extending in an east-west direction from Greenwich,
Connecticut at the New York State line to Killingly, Connecticut at the
Rhode Island State line. The 53-mile easternmost portion of the turnpike
was selected for study; it included 21 interchanges and 8 toll stations.
Study and control towns in eastern Connecticut were generally small,
with a median socio-economic level. As the textile industry, a main employer,
declined in the area over the past several decades, unemployment increased.
Methodology
Study areas included "turnpike towns" (all towns, any portion of
which lay within five miles of the turnpike), and the areas immediately
surrounding the interchanges. The remaining towns in eastern Connecticut
were designated as control areas.
Data were collected from federal, state, and local sources, as well
as by field surveys. Industrial diversification was judged by comparing
local distribution of employment by industry group with national data. Real
estate values were obtained from data on properties sold during a base
period (1950-1955) and resold in 1956-1961.
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Labor market areas were identified by dividing turnpike and control
towns into regional composite labor market areas. Geographic labor markets
were obtained for selected firms by constructing an 'equiprobable ellipse'
representing the residence locations of 95% of commuting workers. Changes
in the size of ellipse or its degree of inclination of the major axis
indicated orientation toward or away from the highway.
Impacts
The Connecticut Turnpike was planned to stimulate manufacturing
activity and increase employment. Turnpike towns showed the greatest
increase in manufacturing employment (27%) in Connecticut, while state
levels remained the same, and control towns showed a slight decline.
These changes were most substantial in the year immediately following turn-
pike construction. 41 new manufacturing firms located in eastern Connecticut
between 1954 and 1959 27 in turnpike towns, 14 in control towns. However,
the turnpike was not rated as the single most important factor in the location
decision by firms locating in the study area.
Wage increases were greater in the turnpike towns (44% increase) than
in control towns (24% increase). The change is attributed to the increase
in number of employed persons, the shift from textile to non-textile industry,
and the general rise of wages from 1954 to 1962. Turnpike towns showed a
greater turnover of industry types than control towns, but industrial diver-
sification remained at the same level. Labor market areas expanded geographi-
cally (commuting distance increased) in two-thirds of turnpike towns, while
control towns showed no significant change.
Retail sales, measured by tax records and number of establishments,
increased slightly in the turnpike towns (mainly at interchange areas) and
declined in control towns. The number of tourist lodging establishments in
both areas remained the same, but in the turnpike towns a conversion from
cabins to larger motels occurred.
Population growth rates in eastern Conn, were less than state rates from
1930 to 1950; from 1950 to 1960, the turnpike towns equalled the state rate,
while control towns lagged behind. Growth was greatest in turnpike towns
from 1958 to 1964, immediately after turnpike opening. All towns showed
increases in planning commission activity, town revenues, and spending for
community services.
A survey of summer residents in eastern Connecticut from 1957 to 1962
showed that the turnpike made the area accessible to a broader population of
summer residents. The number and value of summer residences increased in
both turnpike and control towns.
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Residential property showed a higher average annual appreciation
in turnpike towns; however, the proportion of higher priced homes was
larger in the control towns. This may reflect a tendency for blue collar
workers to live in turnpike towns, while management employees prefer to
reside farther away.
Examination of real estate values at four interchange areas in
1958 and 1964 showed increases of from 24% to 388%, the higher increases
being associated with changes in land use.
Conclusions
The author concludes that the turnpike had important economic,
demographic, land use, and social impacts, but was only one of many inter-
related factors influencing economic growth. An inhibiting factor was a
labor force shaped by the textile industry, and slow to respond to new
economic opportunities.
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I-A-45.
Michigan State University, Economic and Social Effects of Highway
Improvements: A Summary, Summarized by E. Clark Rowley, Highway
Traffic Center, East Lansing, Michigan, 1961.
Summary
A summary and evaluation of the findings of seven previous studies
of highway impacts are presented. The studies, carried out in the late
1950's, examine the economic impacts and induced community changes of
three separate kinds of highway investments: relocations, bypasses, and
improved regional highway networks. All were performed in small to medium
sized towns in Michigan, and together cover a range of highway-related
impacts, including changes in land values, retail trade, population growth,
and land use patterns. The consensus of the studies is that highway reloca-
tions and bypasses have not significantly decreased business activity along
their previous routes, but have affected both property values and land usage
along the old and new routes.
Impacts and Methodologies
Major objectives of this book are to determine, through examination
of previous empirical studies, whether highway relocations and bypasses
adversely affect the communities through which the routes previously passed,
whether highway impacts accumulate over time, and whether a highway network
influences the land use patterns of a region. Of the seven studies summarized,
six concern highway relocations and bypasses.
Two relocation and bypass case studies are examined, involving three
highways: U.S.-16, a major commercial and industrial route through a rural
part of Oakland County, Michigan; U.S.-23, which bypasses a number of small
towns in southeastern Genesee County, Michigan; and U.S.-127, which bypasses
rapidly-growing satellite communities of Detroit. Sales tax data from
1953-1958 were used to estimate retail business receipts in each of the
bypassed communities, and trends were compared to general state and county
economic trends for the period 1950-1958. Retail businesses (including
traffic-oriented businesses, such as service stations) in the bypassed towns
di'd not suffer serious losses in receipts. Their business activities were
roughly equivalent to state and county trends.
The influence of natural barriers and bypasses on growth patterns in
small communities is examined in another study. U.S. Geological Survey maps
were used to identify natural barriers resulting from topographical features
and developmental patterns for twenty southern Michigan towns ranging in
population from 150 to 3,500. Comparisons for different communities revealed
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that natural barriers impede growth in their direction for towns of less
than 400 people, but are not significant obstacles to expansion in slightly
larger towns (400-3,500 people). However, if highway bypasses were located
along natural barriers, the combination effectively blocked growth for all
sizes of towns. Where highway bypasses were located away from natural
barriers, they tended to draw growth, creating traffic congestion at
interchanges.
The bypass effects on retail trade in six communities of less than
25,000 population are summarized in a third study. Sales tax records were
used to estimate business volumes for bypassed communities and the State of
Michigan. All of the study towns were located outside large metropolitan
areas and had been bypassed several years prior to the analysis. Data
revealed that in five of the six communities, retailers made greater gains
than the state average. However, traffic-oriented businesses, such as
service stations and restaurants, lost trade. Attitude surveys of local
merchants indicated that they viewed the removal of through-traffic,
particularly trucks, as beneficial.
The final chapter on bypass effects describes the impact of the
Dort Highway bypass of Flint, Michigan on land values. The 10-mile bypass
was selected because it had been in operation since the 1930's and therefore
its full effect on the city of'Flint would be evident. In the past century,
Flint has grown from a lumbering town to a manufacturing center and finally
to an automobile industrial complex. The study evaluated land use and
value changes in relation to highway improvements using property sales
data from 1920 through 1957. Land adjacent to the highway, land within
one-half mile of the highway, and all other property east of the highway
(as a control) was examined.
Data on property sales showed that unimproved parcels abutting the
highway experienced a consistent three-fold increase in value from 1920 to
1950. Property in the other two zones showed no consistent trend, with some
parcels increasing and some decreasing in value. On improved property,
value was related to intensity of use .rather than to proximity to the highway.
These results indicate that although a relationship exists between highway
proximity and property values, other influences can override highway-induced
value changes.
Conclusions
Findings of these studies suggest that highway bypasses do not affect
adversely retail trade in towns located on the previous routes. Results
showed that bypasses stimulate downtown retail business, with the exception
of traffic-oriented businesses such as service stations and restaurants.
It is suggested that growth may occur because relocations make downtown
stores more attractive to local shoppers by decreasing congestion along the
old route.
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Highways influence land use patterns and property values. Near
very small towns, they may alter the overall pattern of development; in
larger cities, their effects are primarily on the value of adjacent land.
Thus, the impact of highway relocations and bypasses depends on the character
and size of nearby towns.
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I-A-50.
Mueller, E., A. Wieken, and M. Wood. Location Decisions and Industrial
Mobility in Michigan, University of Michigan, Institute for Social
Research, 1961.
Summary
The study explores the interaction of industrial attitudes and loca-
tion decisions (new locations, plant expansion, and relocation) among Michigan
manufacturers in 1961. The objective was to assess Michigan's attractiveness
for industry as measured by satisfaction or dissatisfaction with specific
area characteristics. Transportation was a significant, but not a dominant,
determinant of plant location.
Study Area
From 1950 to I960, Michigan had a relatively high unemployment rate
and the state government experienced fiscal problems, particularly as a result
of decentralization of the automotive industry then taking place. The
subject study was an effort to determine whether Michigan's attractiveness
for industrial location had deteriorated relative to other states.
Results
The two most frequently cited minimum requirements for plant location
were adequate water supply and skilled labor availability.
When asked to select five locational factors from a list of 21 possible
responses, manufacturers representing at least half of all employment in the
industries covered chose in order: labor costs (wages and productivity);
proximity to markets (including transportation costs); availability of labor
(skills and supply); industrial climate (attitude of state and community
toward industry); taxes; and proximity to materials (including transportation
costs). "Traffic access and parking" as an explicit locational factor received
a much lower rating (3 to 6%) from industry representatives.
"Transportation facilities" was one of four advantages more frequently
mentioned for existing industrial plant locations in Michigan, (cited even
more frequently in the Detroit area).
There was no wide variation in the relative importance of locational
factors by industrial group type, size of firm (by number of plants) or extent
of market (local or national).
Methodology
The study was based on personal interviews with top executives in
239 Michigan and 57 Ohio manufacturing plants in 1961. The sampling was
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designed to be representative of all manufacturing plants in Michigan. Ohio
sampling was limited to three metropolitan areas (Toledo, Cleveland, and
Columbus). The study was comparable to an industrial survey completed in
1950.
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I-A-55.
Pennsylvania State University, Blairsville; A Bypass Study - The
Economic and Social Impact of a Highway, University Park,
Pennsylvania, 1962.
Summary
Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of socio-economic
change in the community of Blairsville, Pa. are related where possible
to the relocation of U. S. Route 22, an open-access highway bypassing
the Blairsville Business District. During the study period (1949-1959),
changes in land use, economic activity, size and characteristics of the
population, and local taxes and expenditures are examined.
Study Area and Investment
An unlimited-access bypass highway was constructed in 1953 around
Blairsville, a rural town 35 miles east of Pittsburgh, as part of improve-
ments to U. S. Route 22. The old road was retained as an alternate route
through town. The population of Blairsville was 5,000 at the beginning
of the study period. Bypass effects were somewhat obscured by the simulta-
neous completion of a major flood control project in 1953, requiring the
relocation of four small nearby communities and a small part of Blairsville.
Part of the land adjacent to the new road is topographically unsuitable for
development.
Methodology
Data were collected through interviews with a sample of town leaders
and citizens. Questionnaires were also mailed to holders of non-residential
telephone connections. The area covered by the greater Blairsville telephone
directory was defined as the "community of interest" for study purposes.
Businesses were surveyed directly through interviews and also by counting
the number of non-residential electrical power connections. Overall business
volume was measured by average power consumption and employment totals.
Whenever possible, the surrounding small communities and the entire region
were used as control areas.
Impacts
Analysis of land use changes in Blairsville by acres showed that the
greatest increase was in schools and public use (551% from 1950-1959).
Vacant land showed a net loss. Commercial and light industrial uses in-
creased a total of 56%, primarily near the new bypass. Residential land use
increased by 0.6% along the old route, despite a slightly decreased population
over the study period.
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The value of taxable real property in Blairsville increased steadily,
but this increase was not significantly different from those of surrounding
communities. Property values increased at a faster rate along the new
bypass route than along the old route or in other sections of the borough.
Along the new route of the bypass, the value of buildings per 1,000 square
feet of land rose 175% in one segment and 40%. in another in the 1950-59
period. For the more densely built, older area there was an average
increase of about 25%.
The cost of local government increased steadily in all areas, with
the greatest single increase in Blairsville being expenditures for protection
of persons and property. However, since the average increases in surrounding
communities were generally larger than those in Blairsville, there is little
evidence of a relationship between the highway and increased governmental
expenditures.
The town's total tax levy, real estate tax, occupations tax, per
capita tax, and tax rate in mills all increased more rapidly than for
neighboring communities. The real estate tax, the primary source of local
taxes, increased by 68% in Blairsville, but only an average of 27% in
surrounding communities. The occupations tax increased by 16% over the
decade, while in surrounding communities this tax decreased by 67%. The
only exception was in assessed valuation, which increased more slowly in
Blairsville (45%) than in surrounding communities (52%). While differences
in taxation and assessment between Blairsville and the surrounding communities
^were not statistically significant, it was evident that Blairsville met its
increasing expenditures by increasing levies more than its neighboring towns.
The total number of businesses in Blairsville declined during the
study period (4%) and losses were mainly in manufacturing, construction,
and retail business. Service and miscellaneous business increased, and
wholesale and transportation business remained the same. Development of
business near the bypass was slow, with only 10 establishments by the end
of the decade (8 of these were highway-oriented).
The bypass alleviated part of the congestion along the old route,
causing a 5% decrease in Average Daily Traffic in 1954 along the most heavily
traveled segment of the road. However, by 1959 traffic volume on the old
route was above the pre-bypass volumes.
Population decreased by 1.4% (from 5,000 to 4,930) over the study
period, but this was not apparently related to the bypass. Out-migration
was mainly among teen-age and young adult age groups, while in-migrants con-
sisted largely of professional people (2.5%) with higher education and higher
median income levels.
Conclusions
The authors conclude that the negative bypass impacts anticipated
before construction did not occur and that highway development is not in-
herently either good or bad for a community.
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I-A-59.
Real Estate Research Corporation, Highway Networks as a Factor in the
Selection of Commercial and Industrial Locations, prepared for the
U. S. Bureau of Public Roads, 1958.
Summary
An attempt was made to determine the importance of highways in
corporate location decisions through a survey of 134 newly located
businesses in the Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Hartford Metropolitan Areas
during the 1950's. Responses indicated that highway-related factors were
seldom dominant in location decisions. The importance of highway factors
varies widely for different types of industry.
Study Area and Investment
The three cities selected for study vary in size, age, and topography.
Chicago has approximately 4,000,000 residents within the city limits; is
relatively flat topographically; and its highways are mainly in regular
east-west or north-south patterns, often on city section lines. Hartford
has a city population of approximately 175,000 in a valley bordered by the
Connecticut River. Major highway thoroughfares are meandering routes due
to the hilly terrain, and bridges are numerous. Pittsburgh has a city
population of slightly less than 700,000, and the area is largely shaped
by the steel industry. Highway routes axe irregular due to steep grades;
tunnels are common.
The economic activities of each area also vary, but this seems to have
had little bearing on highway development: all areas have extensive highway
networks.
Methodology
In each metropolitan area, a sample of newly located firms was
selected, and a top official in each was interviewed personally. Each of
the individuals interviewed was either responsible for the ultimate location
decision or well-informed of the procedure followed and governing factors
resulting in the decision. Industry types included retail goods and services,
wholesale and distribution, manufacturing and processing, and other service
industries. The questions were designed to provide information not only on
the importance of exposure and access to specific highways, but also-on the
importance of the available highway network as a whole.
Classification of location criteria included: (1) factors related
to a specific highway (highway access, highway exposure); (2) factors related
to highway networks (transportation of materials by automotive vehicle, relation
of highway network to market and to labor force); and (3) factors not directly
related to highways (e.g., non-automotive transportation of materials).
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Impacts
Survey results show that highway access and highway exposure are
significant in the selection of locations for retail facilities, but not
in the selection of new locations for manufacturing. Highway access was
indicated as a dominant criterion by 18 of 41 retail establishments;
however, only three of 79 manufacturing and distribution firms interviewed
considered highway factors critical.
The firms where highway access was the dominant factor were all
located in Pittsburgh, perhaps because the rugged terrain and frequent
use of center dividing strips on highways make access a more critical
problem in Pittsburgh than elsewhere.
Transportation and labor force were cited as dominant criteria by
19 of 79 manufacturing and distribution firms. Labor force accessibility
was not a significant factor in location of retail establishments.
Establishments seeking rental quarters were influenced more often
by site availability than firms purchasing space. Thirty percent of enter-
prises renting space listed availability as the dominant factor in their
location decision compared to only eleven percent for businesses owning
their new premises.
Conclusions
New locations by commercial and industrial enterprises are governed
by functional considerations. The primary function of each business
determines optimum location, subject to cost limitations. For most commercial
and industrial functions, a site near a major highway is more desirable than
an equivalent site not so located. However, businesses will not pay a pre-
mium or sacrifice other elements of desirability in order to gain a highway
site. More than half of the enterprises surveyed were "indifferent" to
highway frontage, meaning that they would not sacrifice other considerations
to obtain such frontage.
Most firms are dependent to some degree on the existing network of
highways. This dependence, however, frequently was not perceived by res-
pondents, who took the existing network for granted.
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I-D-15.
Real Estate Research Corporation, A Study of the Itdpact of Major Highways
on Local Tax Bases, prepared for the U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Public Roads, 1960.
Summary
The effect of multi-lane, limited access highways on assessment,
zoning and taxing practices in Cook County, 111. and Frederick County, Md.
were examined from approximately 1950 to 1960. These data, together with
information provided from a questionnaire survey of assessing officials
across the country, suggest that highways enlarge the tax base of larger
metropolitan areas (provided undeveloped land is available) to a greater
extent than for small cities; that taxing jurisdictions in the western
and southern regions of the country benefit more by highways; and that
special purpose highways have limited impact on the local tax base of
jurisdictions they traverse.
Study Area and Investment
Cook County, 111., an area of about 1,000 square miles, had a 1950
population of about 4.5 million, located mainly in the Chicago metropolitan
area. The area has a highly diversified economic base, partly due to its
advantageous location for all forms of domestic transport. The area is
served by a variety of limited-access highways (both free and toll). The
study site consisted of 16.54 square miles adjacent to the Edens Expressway;
a 14.65 square mile area in the northwest suburban area was used as control.
Frederick County, Md., an area of about 650 square miles 45 miles
northwest of Washington, D. C., is predominately rural and had a 1950
population of 62,000. Two interurban highways serve the area: U.S. 40,
east of Frederick, the principal city in the county; and U.S. 240 (Inter-
state 70-A), extending from a bypass to arterial connections in Bethesda,
Md. and Washington, D. C. suburbs. U.S. 40 has roadside access while
U.S. 240 is a limited access highway. The specific study site consisted
of 26 "election districts" in Frederick County.
Methodology
1959 assessment data was available for the Cook County study area.
Population and housing data were obtained from 1950-1959, and zoning
ordinances reviewed from 1940-1958.
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Data on geography, economy, population and employment, housing,
zoning and assessment practices, and traffic counts on major roads were
examined for the 26 districts comprising the Frederick County study area.
About 100 questionnaires were mailed to assessing officials in
all regions of the U.S.; about 50 usable responses were received. Informa-
tion was obtained on taxable property removed from assessment by highway
construction, and amount and extent of increases in assessed valuation
due to highway improvements.
Impact s
Cook County
From 1947 to 1958, the total valuation of real property under the
jurisdiction of the Cook County Assessor increased by about 34%. Land rose
only 7%, while assessed valuation of buildings rose 49%. About two-thirds
of the increase occurred in towns outside the City of Chicago. For the
county outside of the City of Chicago, assessed valuations increased by
105%, mostly due to new construction.
The study area showed increases in assessed valuation of about 150%
from 1947 to 1959; the rise in the control area was 170%. Land valuation
increased 22% in the study area and 18% in the control area; assessed
valuation of buildings increased 230% and 250%, respectively. The principal
factor underlying these increases, conversion of land to urban uses, was
greater in the control area. This is attributed to better access by rail
commuter service and greater availability of land suitable for urban develop-
ment in the control area. Also the proximity of the control area to O'Hare
Field and the location of a southwestern portion of the control area within
the Chicago Base Rate Area (offering lower rail and truck rates) tended to
favor development in the control area over the study area.
Frederick County
Prior to 1950, Frederick County was experiencing net out-migration
and was considered economically depressed. However, by 1953 Fort Detrick
was in operation, U.S. 240 was completed, and U.S. 40 was extended into
the County from Baltimore. Commercial facilities and new housing were
developed along U.S. 40. U.S. 240 had little effect on economic growth
because of its widely separated access points.
The taking of private property for highway purposes removed an amount
of taxable land, but this was offset by general economic improvement, in
part due to the highway improvements. The limited access highway did not
enhance tax value of rural land, except near interchanges (if local zoning
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permitted). Highway improvements primarily serve urban terminal points
and their greatest economic effect is through enhancement of the economy
of primary urban concentrations linked by the highway.
Other Regions (U.S.)
The results of the survey of assessing officials in other regions
of the U.S., combined with the data from the above studies, indicated that:
(1) highway effects on the tax base are directly related to the size of
the city larger cities benefit more than smaller communities, provided
adequate undeveloped land is available; (2) taxing jurisdictions in the
western and southern regions of the U.S. benefit more than in north central
or northeastern areas, primarily because smaller population densities lead
to greater dependence on automobile transportation; (3) special purpose
highways are of limited value to a local tax jurisdiction unless they
serve important terminal points within the jurisdiction.
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I-A-63.
Smith, Wilbur & Associates, Maryland Capital Beltway Impact Study; Final
Report, Washington SMSA and Maryland Counties for Maryland State Roads
Commission, June 1968.
Summary
The study analyzes the impact of the Capital Beltway on the Washington
SMSA in the areas of: economic base; industry; recreation; institutional
development; work trips; business centers; residential property values;
population allocation; employment; retail sales; labor force, housing units
and automobiles; traffic noise; and traffic. While the study area includes
the entire Washington SMSA, main emphasis is given to the Maryland Counties
of Montgomery and Prince Georges. A variety of methodologies is used to
trace the impacts from the opening of the beltway in 1964 to the completion
of the study in 1968. Historical trends are analyzed from 1950 to provide a
base for assessing impacts.
Study Area and Investment
Four types of study areas are chosen for analysis, two of which are
regional in nature and two are detailed. The primary regional area includes
.the Maryland Counties of Montgomery and Prince Georges. In addition, the
entire SMSA region is included for comparative purposes. The two types of
detailed study areas are route segments and interchange areas.
Impacts
The study found that, largely as the result of early planning, the
beltway fit well into the community. The beltway contributed to the faster
growth of the Maryland suburbs in terms of population, private and public
employment, and retail trade (at the expense of other regions). The beltway
facilitated the relocation of distributional industries to the suburbs as
the economy of the SMSA expanded. Use of recreational facilities increased
chiefly because of the beltway bridges which provided Potomac crossings
convenient for Virginia users. The beltway contributed to expansion of
federal installations in Maryland and the attraction of Virginia workers to
Maryland. The impact of the beltway on business center is dependent on the
size of the center, its proximity to the beltway, the length of trips to
the center and the degree of dispersion of the center's trade area. Projec-
tions to 1976 indicate little impact on population allocation except in
a few specific locations where apartment construction will increase relative
to the rest of the region. The two principal impacts of the beltway on
traffic have been in the welding of suburban communities of the Washington
SMSA into a more cohesive whole and in the provision of a bypass for through
traffic.
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Methodology
Time series data on population, employment, land use, accessibility,
income, utilities and other variables were tabulated by traffic zone. For
population, 89 districts, comprising the Washington SMSA, were delineated
along the boundaries of 264 traffic zones. The traffic zones followed
census tracts, .where feasible and were linked through centroids to a coded
network of major streets and highways. Other data were custom collected
by interview and field assists.
Conclusion
The impact of a highway on land use is conditioned by the degree
of "uniqueness" of the highway in the network. The accessibility index is
an excellent measure of uniqueness. The impact of highways on land use
depends on factors such as the availability of land, the location of the
highway with respect to urban expansion, the nature of the local economy,
and the characteristics of local communities. Evidence is presented to
indicate that the net effect of highways on the tax base will be enlarge-
ment of the tax base and improvement in the revenue position of taxing
jurisdictions..
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I-A-65.
Stroup, Robert H. and L. A. Vargha, "Economic Impact of Secondary Road
Improvements," Highway Research Record, Number 16, pp. 1-13, 1963.
Summary
The economic impact of rural road improvements in a six-county area
of Kentucky is described and analyzed. The study suggests that construction
of all-weather, hard surface roads leads to market adjustments, specializa-
tion of enterprise, and concentration of business.
Study Area and Investment
A six-county area in northeastern Kentucky with hill and bottom
farming, much of it the subsistence type, was selected for study. Topography
was a major determinant of settlement patterns, transportation, and community
association. The area was losing population but had an increasing per capita
income over the study period (1950-1960). Retail market boundaries in the
area were fluid; dominant and subordinate trade centers were in the process
of being determined.
Improvements in rural road networks rather than single isolated changes
were studied. These consisted of surfacing of intercounty connector and
feeder roads. About 400 miles of hard-surfaced roads existed in 1950; mileage
increased 120% by 1960.
Methodology
Interviews covering all business operating in the six counties in 1960
were conducted to determine succession of business, changes in merchandise
lines, and changes in open-country business location. All business that had
failed in the 11-year period (1950-1960 inclusive) was also interviewed.
The relation of changes in retail business dispersion to proportion of
farms on all-weather roads was tested by multiple regression analysis. Census
of agriculture, of population, and county income estimates were used.
Interviews were also conducted with about 10% of farm operators. The
sample was stratified by location with regard to major trade centers, county
of residence, and physiographic (four types) locations.
Impacts
Larger trade centers increased during the decade in number of businesses;
small (under 20 businesses) trade centers remained static; open-country loca-
tions decreased in number. The greatest increases in larger centers and
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greatest decline in open-country businesses occurred during the period
(1955-1960) of greatest activity in road improvement; however, a causal
connection between these events was not established.
Of the ten types of businesses increasing most in number, three
were highway oriented (restaurants, gasoline stations, motels). Fastest
growth was shown by specialty shops.
Multiple regression analysis showed that geographic dispersion of
retail business was related to population density, per capita income, and
proportion of farms on all-weather roads; the last variable was the most
important. This result lends support to the hypothesis that road improve-
ments can have significant effects on market relationships and lead to
specialization of enterprises and concentration of business.
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I-A-67.
Wheat, L. F., "Effect of Modern Highways on Urban Manufacturing Growth."
Highway Research Record, Number 277, pp. 9-24, 1969.
Summary
Manufacturing growth rates from 1958 to 1963 are compared for two
groups of cities, an experimental group located on Interstate System free-
ways and a control group located elsewhere. The two groups were comparable
in all major aspectspopulation, location, air service, economic activity,
etc.except highways. Nationwide, there was no significant difference
in the growth performance of the two groups. In areas with dense population
and uneven terrainthe Northeast, Southeast, East Midwest, and Far West
freeway cities grew much faster.
Study Area, Investment, and Methodology
The study areas included 106 city pairs (212 cities), mostly between
10,000 and 50,000 in population and located in 40 states. They were selected
by screening out suburbs, satellites and other cities over 5,000 in popula-
tion whose proximity to nearby urban areas might influence their own industrial
"pull." The remaining cities were matched, based on factors such as geographic
location, population, and economic base, so that each pair had highly similar
characteristics.
A pair consisted of a city within eight miles of Interstate System
exists (designated a "freeway" city), and another at least fifteen miles
from a freeway (designated a control city). A city's growth was defined as
its per capita manufacturing employment increase between 1958 and 1963.
Growth data for all 212 cities were collected from the Census of Manufacturers.
Impacts
Superior highway facilities can be an important stimulus to manufactur-
ing growth under a certain set of conditions. Although there was no significant
difference in growth rates for the two types of cities nationwide, freeway
cities did grow faster in regions with dense populations and uneven terrain.
In the Southeast, East Midwest, and Pacific Northwest, for example, freeway
cities outgrew the non-freeway cities by a 43 to 23 margin, significant at
the 0.04 level statistically. In the same regions and including the Northeast,
freeway cities above 16,000 in population outgrew their twins 27 out of 31
times. Among pairs with air service in the same group, freeway cities had
a 27 to 2 advantage.
On the other hand, non-freeway cities between 16 and 25 miles from the
nearest freeway exit did not grow faster relative to their mates than more
distant non-freeway cities. The growth-distance relationship was found to
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approximate a bell-shaped curve with a standard deviation of 5 miles and
a peak at zero miles.
Although the two groups were roughly equal in manufacturing, correla-
tions between industry variables and growth was 0.93 for freeway cities
but only 0.33 for non-freeway cities. This suggests that freeways affect
growth indirectly, as a catalyst in stimulating manufacturing.
Conclusion
Freeways are unimportant in stimulating manufacturing growth unless
the region is densely populated with uneven terrain. In such regions, free-
ways offer relatively substantial time/cost savings. Growth impacts are
limited primarily to cities above 16,000 in population, where the industrial
base is self-sustaining and capable of expansion. Freeways affect signifi-
cantly cities through which they pass, their influence on a city diminishing
to nearly zero at a distance of about 10 miles.
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I-A-70.
Witheford, David K. , "Highway Impacts on Downtown and Suburban Shopping,"
Highway Research Record, Number 187, pp. 15-20, 1967.
Summary
The characteristics of market areas within a fixed travel time from
a hypothetical central business district (CBD) and a shopping center are
compared before and after highway improvements. For values of travel time
coincident with a typical market area boundary for a suburban shopping
center, family incomes total more for a suburban shopping center than for
the CBD. Highway improvements, increasing uniformly travel speeds in the
whole urban area, enhance the relative advantage of the shopping center
even though the incremental speed gain is proportionally larger for down-
town areas. These relations are examined in Buffalo, New York, using
socioeconomic and highway network data from the Niagara Frontier Transpor-
tation Study.
Study Area and Investment
The theoretical analysis assumes that residential densities decline
regularly with distance from the CBD and that highway travel speeds increase
correspondingly. Shopping center trip generation at residential origin zones
is assumed to be more sensitive to time than distance, as empirically found.
The area enclosed by a fixed travel time radius centered on a suburban shopping
center is generally larger than the equivalent area for the CBD. Within the
larger suburban area surrounding the shopping center, the resident population
not only has greater income per capita, but because of higher levels of
car ownership, it also has greater mobility. Thus, even though the population
density is lower, the purchasing power within reach of the suburban center(s)
may equal or exceed that of the area surrounding the CBD.
Geographic characteristics may also affect adversely the CBD, parti-
cularly where the CBD is non-centrally located in the metropolitan area
(Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Memphis, etc.). The actual case examined,
Buffalo, New York falls in this category since the CBD is located virtually
on a waterfront with development encompassing an angle of only about 200°.
Zone households and income data for Buffalo were arrayed by minutes
of travel time from downtown Buffalo and from a suburban shopping center
located less than one mile from an interchange of the New York Thruway
(toll free for local trips). A 14 minute unrestricted travel time derived
from computer-built "trees" of the 1961 highway network (accounting for
about 75% of tripmaking to the center and equivalent to at least 20 minutes
normal over-the-road and terminal time) was used to define both the shopping
center and downtown market areas.
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Impac t s
Highway improvements reduce travel times and add to the market areas
of suburban and CBD centers. However, the increment added to the suburban
shopping center is generally much larger than for the CBD. Furthermore,
market overlap within the travel time previously defining abutting market
areas generally favors the suburban shopping center. The proportion of
the original CBD market area now within reach of the shopping center is
greater than the proportion of the original market area of the shopping
center which becomes accessible to the CBD.
Results from Buffalo, New York illustrate these relations. A
14 minute travel time places most of the downtown area within the market
reach of the suburban center but only about 30% of the suburban market area
is within the CBD travel radius. Total family income within the 14 minute
band is about 25% more for the shopping center than for the CBD. Cumulative
number of households with over $5,000 income is 23% higher for the shopping
center; for over $8,000 income, it is 77% greater. There are 29% more
cars within 14 minutes of the shopping center.
A uniform increase of speed by 4 mph adds a 1-mile wide band to each
market area. This addition increases the non-overlapping area income by
$68 million for the shopping center and $42 million by the CBD. The
added income in the new overlap area is $221 for'the shopping center and
$206 million for the CBD. The total effect is a relative strengthening
of the suburban shopping center.
Conclusions
Highway improvements currently strengthen suburban shopping centers
as against the CBD. The tendency for the gap between suburban center and
downtown purchasing potentials to widen with highway improvement cannot
continue indefinitely; the outer boundaries of urban development are reached
by the shopping center before they are reached by the CBD.
The CBD has the benefit of other transport modes (transit) and of
shopping by office workers and non-resident visitors. Long term strengthening
of the CBD depends on combining measures to improve its relative attractive-
ness with better access (improved transit).
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I-A-71.
Wright, Arthur L. and Melvin G. Blase, "A Depressed Region and Three Myths,"
Growth and Change: A Journal of Regional Development, Vol. 2, No. 3,
pp. 14-22, July 1971.
Summary
Three widely-accepted assumptions underlying planning for economic
improvement of depressed regions are challenged. The "myths" discussed are:
(1) income is homogeneously distributed in a depressed region; (2) economic
improvement will result from linking the region to others with highways; and
(3) out-migration is an effective means for improving per capita income.
A 44-county area in Missouri (part of the Ozarks Region) provides a case
study area for discussing the above assumptions.
Study Area and Investment
The study area is characterized by chronic underemployment, lack of
economic opportunity, and low income levels. Agriculture is the largest
single employment source, but much land is unsuitable for cultivation. Low
farm incomes and lack of employment opportunities in the manufacturing sector
have contributed to a high out-migration rate, leaving a population largely
"old, poorly education, unskilled, and not receptive to change.
A major, four-lane highway artery (Highway 66) has served the area for
many years. It was recently improved and changed to an Interstate route (1-44).
Impacts
In 1950, 34 of the 44 Missouri counties had average per capita incomes
from $600 to $1,000. In 1960, per capita income ranged from $637 to $1,279.
The data indicate that the region is becoming more heterogeneous with respect
to income.
The possible impact of Highway 66 was studied by examining per capita
income in the eight counties through which it passed with the remaining
counties. The 1950 average income was higher in these eight counties. However,
it increased less ($803 vs. $997) than in the other counties in the 1950 to
1965 period. No significant change occurred when the highway was transformed
to an Interstate route. Discriminant analysis indicates that the main highway
had an impact on income originally, but this diminished over time. Intracounty
local roads showed a higher and longer lasting correlation with income, indicating
that secondary roads may have a more significant impact on the regional economy.
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Correlation of income with migration showed that per capita incomes
were higher in counties where in-migration occurred, rather than in areas
where out-migration took place.
Methodology
The general analytic framework of the study includesr (1) multiple
cross-sectional regression analyses for 1955, 1960, and 1965; (2) first-
difference regression analyses for 1950 to 1965; and (3) discriminant analysis
of data from 1950 to 1965. Regression analyses included twenty-five variables,
in addition to per capita income.
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I. HIGHWAYS
B. Social and Demographic Impacts
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I-B-11.
Ellis, Raymond H. and R. D. Worrall, "Toward Measurement of Community Impact:
The Utilization of Longitudinal Travel Data to Define Residential Linkages,"
Highway Research Record, Number 277, pp. 25-35, 1969.
Summary
An empirical method for measuring residential linkages and linkage
patterns is suggested as a basis for quantitatively estimating community
consequences of transportation projects. Linkage definition involves
analysis of two data sets: the activity patterns of the household, and
the set of destination points which the household defines 'as important.
In a case study of 35 households in Skokie, Illinois, travel data over a
26-day period were collected. Destination points defined as important
by households were examined by discriminant iterations-analysis to insure
that the set of linkage definition criteria are uniformly applied for each
activity pattern. Results are classified by activity type and principal
mode of travel.
Study Area-
A longitudinal travel survey of 35 households in Skokie, Illinois
included a complete travel diary during a four-week period (in 1965 or 1966)
by each household resident.
Methodology
Activity patterns were described by assigning a vector to each destina-
tion point. Each vector originated at the homesite and contained elements
describing the characteristics of the activity site (e.g. geographic location,
type of activity), and characteristics of the household's interaction with the
site (e.g. trip rate, mode,, travel time). Eight activity categories were used:
full-time work; school; religious, part-time work; shopping; recreation;
informal socializing; restaurants; community activities and formal socializing.
The three principal modes of travel considered were car, public transportation,
and walking.
The definition of a set of residential linkages associated with a
household is based on a four-step approach: (1) a longitudinal travel survey
to identify a complete set of destination points for each household (travel
diaries); (2) a household interview to identify the activity sites considered
important; (3) a discriminant iterations analysis to identify the criteria
underlying the household's choice of important destination points (linkages);
and (4) application of discriminant procedures developed in the previous step
to the defined activity patterns of other households, thus providing a
systematic analytical base.
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Discriminant iterations analysis used to define the criteria of
households (by removing irrational and random choices) and to generate
procedures for defining linkages solely from activity patterns, involved
24 variables including eight dummy variables for the eight activity
categories and three for the travel modes, and a set of variables involving
frequency, time of occurrence, distance and average speed of trips.
Results and Conclusions
As the authors admit, the discriminant procedures developed to define
residential linkages represent the value set of the authors and not the
value set of the households. Only 7.5 out of 36.2 destination points
visited by the average household during the study period were chosen as
linkages. An average of 0.33 trips per day are made to each linkage as
compared to only 0.14 daily trips to each destination point. The ratio
of linkages to destination points is essentially unity for work, school,
and religious, part-time work; about 0.2 for informal socializing; and
about 0.1 for all other activity categories.- In terms of principal mode
of travel, it is unity for walking, 0.55 for public transportation and
only 0.11 for automobile.
The success of the analysis must be qualified by the small sample
size and its intense geographic concentration. Further tests with larger
more spatially diffuse samples of households are desirable. However, the
cost of obtaining and coding longitudinal data is prohibitively high (about
$5 per household per day). The authors suggest that linkage patterns could
be developed from cross-sectional travel data, provided information is
available on walking trips.
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I-B-50.
Hill, Stuart L., and Bamford Frankland, "Mobility as a Measure of
Neighborhood," Highway Research Record. Number 187, pp. 33-42, 1967.
Summary
A "mobility index" is developed and used as a quantitative measure of
the impact of highways on community stability and cohesion. Several variables
related to housing characteristics of a neighborhood are combined in a
single "mobility index" intended to indicate neighborhood socio-cultural
stability or cohesion. An index was successfully developed for Beverly Hills,
but was less successful elsewhere, primarily because necessary data were
difficult to collect. The index is not a normative measure, since high values
may reflect adverse rather than beneficial community qualities.
Methodology
No single variable can be used to quantify the often controversial
highway impacts on community structure.and stability. Accordingly, several
variables were aggregated into an index, the mobility index, intended as a
measure of community stability. Changes of the mobility index may be used
to assess highway impacts on community cohesion.
Selected stability indicators include percent of persons five years
or older who occupied the same residences for five or more years; percent of
housing units 20 years or older occupied by the same household continuously;
percent of single family residence units; and percent owner-occupied units.
These quantities are combined linearly to yield the mobility index. High
values indicate significant cultural continuity or stability, while low
values imply little such stability.
A mobility index was successfully constructed for a test area in
Beverly Hills, California. Data problems were encountered elsewhere. Census
tract data from which the index was designed to be constructed are available
only for communities and neighborhoods within SMSA's. If the index is to be
applied to a small urban area outside of an SMSA, data collection costs
become prohibitive. Furthermore, census tract boundaries may vary over time.
Accordingly, changes of the mobility index cannot be used in a consistent
fashion to evaluate highway impacts. Although a simplified index was designed,
similar data problems were encountered.
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I-B-26.
McLean, Edward L. and William G. Adkins, "Freeway Effects on Residential
Mobility in Metropolitan Neighborhoods," Highway Research Record,
Number 356, pp. 95-104, 1971.
Summary
The study attempts to delineate metropolitan neighborhoods, investigate
the effect of a freeway on residential mobility, analyze freeway-neighborhood
relationships, and interpret these findings in a causal and predictive frame-
work. Data were collected for 152 study and 47 control neighborhoods in
Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. A "neighborhood" index was formulated
to aid in neighborhood delineation and to measure socio-economic level; and
a "mobility" index was developed to measure residential mobility. These
indexes are reliable measures of the effects of the introduction of a freeway
in metropolitan neighborhoods.
Study Area and Investment
Investments are freeways, defined as limited-access highways having
four or more lanes and a permanent median divider. The study included four
areas in Dallas, one large area in Austin, and five areas in Houston. Sig-
nificant dates in the analysis were when rights-of-way were authorized, when
construction began, and when the freeway was completed. In six study areas
these dates were between 1950 and 1960; in four areas they were between 1960
and 1965.
Methodology
Neighborhoods are operationally defined as metropolitan spatial areas
that exhibit homogeneous residential housing characteristics based on combina-
tions of city blocks. Neighborhood delineation involved calculating and
mapping socioeconomic characteristics for each block (Census of Housing data).
The census data were supplemented by field observations to determine basic
housing, and economic, transportation and geographic area characteristics,
and consultations with individuals and agencies in the communities.
A neighborhood index was developed for 1950 using: (1) proportion of
owner-occupied dwelling units; (2) proportion of units in good condition; and
(3) proportion of units not crowded. The 1960 neighborhood index included an
additional variable (number of rooms per dwelling unit). The formula for the
index was an arithmetic summation of these proportions and had a numerical
range of 0 to 300.
The mobility index measures residential mobility at five-year intervals
(1950-55, 1955-60, 1960-65), and was initially based on city directory informa-
tion. The index is simply 200-2X where X is the proportion of residents in the
same dwelling units, base year compared with five years past.
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Neighborhoods, with similar social and economic characteristics to
those of the study neighborhoods, not in close proximity to a freeway were
used as controls. Neighborhoods were grouped by index level categories
and by their spatial relation to freeways. Freeway categories included
neighborhoods not bordering the freeway, bordering the freeway, segmented
by the freeway, and control neighborhoods. Product-moment and rank-difference
correlation coefficients were calculated for each study area and for study
and control neighborhoods. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to
provide causal and predictive inferences.
Impacts
Neighborhood indexes were generally low, indicating low to intermediate
socio-economic levels of housing in most study and control neighborhoods.
This distribution may reflect the economics of freeway right-of-way decision,
since it usually costs less if a freeway is located in a lower socio-economic
residential area. Neighborhoods with low 1950 indexes tended to show increases
from 1950 to 1960; those with intermediate or high 1950 indexes showed general
declines from 1950 to 1960; and neighborhoods segmented by a freeway were
more likely to show a decline.
The general pattern of the mobility index was one of a decline in
mobility, except for freeway-segmented neighborhoods where residential mobility
was more likely to increase.
Statistical analyses supported the neighborhood delineation methodology.
Multiple regression analyses indicated that bordered and not bordered neigh-
borhood categories were not significant independent variables (with a prob-
ability of greater than 50 percent). The segmented neighborhood category
is a significant independent variable. Residential mobility is likely to
increase significantly for a segmented neighborhood. Conversion of single
dwelling units to apartments or addition of new multiple-dwelling units is
also likely to take place in segmented neighborhoods.
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. Land Use and Land Value
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I-C-01.
Adkins, William G., "Land Value Impacts of Expressways in Dallas, Houston,
and San Antonio, Texas," Highway Research Board, Bulletin 227,
pp. 50-65, 1959.
Summary
A review of the findings and methodologies of three economic impact
studies dealing with land values as influenced by expressways from 1945 to
1957 in Houston (Gulf Freeway), Dallas (North Central Expressway) and San
Antonio (Expressway). The analyses are based on real estate sales and
utilize before/after and control area comparisons. Each case study is
summarized and data requirements and measurement techniques are specified.
It is suggested that land values are the best single indicator of economic
impact since nearly all effects of highways are eventually reflected in
land values.
Study Area and Investment
Each city studied had a growing population during 1950-1957. Houston
and Dallas have an industrial base while San Antonio is mostly dependent on
agriculture, military, medical services and tourism. Each expressway studied
was the first limited-access facility in the city and was a radial highway
routed through older areas of low-cost, middle-class dwellings, retail and
commercial establishments and manufacturing. The Houston and Dallas express-
ways had continuous frontage roads; the San Antonio expressway did not.
Methodology
Each case study analyzed land value using real estate sales data
obtained from local sources and differentiated sale price of land and improve-
ments from assessed value. The author points out the incomplete nature of
before/after methodology; the difficulty of choosing a truly comparative
control area; the difficulty of separating land value from land use; and
the need for more precise measurement tools.
The Houston and Dallas studies classified land by location only.
The San Antonio study was based on land sales data and classified land
by use, zoning, and street location. Generally, the study areas were bands
averaging about a half-mile in width on either side of each expressway and
about 3 to 6 miles in length.
Data sources were County records. In some instances, these were
supplemented by interviews. The general approach was a "before" and "after"
comparison combined with comparisons with control areas.
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Impacts
Land adjacent to the expressways in Houston and Dallas experienced
significantly greater increases in value than land in control areas.
However, the smallest increases in value occurred for land near, but not
adjacent to, the expressway. For example, the Dallas study showed that
unimproved land abutting the expressway increased in constant dollars
by 270% from 1946-1951 (the "before" period) to 1952-1960 (the "after"
period); nonabutting, unimproved land increased in value by only 17%.
Open land traversed by the Dallas highway was developed in the
"after" period, but at a relatively slow rate; residential subdivisions
accounted for 13% and industrial development for 7% (the remaining land
being in agricultural use or idle) in 1959, i.e., seven years after com-
pletion of the expressway. Land development in control areas was negligible
over the same period.
The Dallas study also included a small town (Richardson, Texas) whose
accessibility to the Central Business District (CBD) of Dallas was greatly
improved by the expressway. Richardson experienced an upsurge of popula-
tion growth coincident with completion of the expressway. However, the
rate of population growth of one control town (Mesquite) was equally great,
though the rates of three other control towns were much smaller.
The value of unimproved land in Richardson was about half that of
comparable land in Dallas in the "before" period. In the "after" period,
unimproved land in Richardson and Dallas had about equal value.
The San Antonio study, which classified land by use, zoning, and
street location, yielded somewhat more detailed results. The overall net
influence of the two expressway sections in San Antonio was estimated at
about 130% increase over land prices in 1941-1945, the "before" period.
Net influence is the excess in price increases over control areas and is
for land only (i.e., after adjustment to remove value of improvements).
Land abutting frontage roads and access ramps was enhanced about
400%. Properties otherwise abutting the expressway right of way had net
benefits of 300%. Properties on main thoroughfares within three blocks
of the expressway, but not abutting it, gained 115%. Land on minor streets,
the most frequent type of location, increased 30%.
Land use and zoning were important in determining the net increases
given above. Properties used for single family dwellings showed, on average,
an insignificant change (over control areas). One-family dwellings were,
in fact, the only class of properties showing some evidence of expressway
damages. Land for apartments increased 110%. Land for non-residential
uses increased 330%; vacant land 310%.
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I-C-02.
Adkins, William G., James E. Frierson, and Russell H. Thompson, Farm Land
Values and Rural Road Service in Ellis County, Texas 1955-58, Texas
Transportation Institute, A. & M. College of Texas, College Station,
Texas, June 1960.
Summary
Relations between farm land values and quality of road service in
Ellis County, Texas are analyzed from data on 214 farms sold during 1955-
1958. Buyers' estimates of road effects on land values were also obtained.
Analyses were conducted on land price, value of road type location, correlation
of land use and road type, and buyer characteristics. It was found that land
on paved roads was likely to be valued at a premium over land on gravel
roads; locations on gravel roads were in turn more valuable than locations
on dirt roads. The only strong relation between quality of road service and
land use was in terms of the value of buildings on the land. On average,
land on gravel and paved roads had buildings valued more than five times
those on land serviced by dirt roads.
Study Area and Investment
Ellis County is a predominantly agricultural area of about 1,000 square
miles, bordered on the north by the Dallas and Fort Worth metropolitan area.
The 1950 population was. 45,645; 58.3% was rural (compared to a statewide
rural population of 37.3%). In 1960 cotton was the county's most important
agricultural commodity; grain, sorghum, corn, and beef cattle were growing
in importance. About 73% of farms in Ellis County were in cropland in 1954,
compared to 25% for the state.
In 1950, 27% of Ellis County farms were located on paved roads; 44%
on gravel roads; and 29% on dirt roads.
Methodology
During the study period (1955-1958), more than 500 transfers of
acreage tracts occurred in Ellis County. Price information and legal
descriptors were obtained for 394 of these; complete sales and farm size
data were obtained for 214. Road service characteristics were defined by
road type: dirt; gravel; farm-to-market (state built roads with 20 feet
of treated surface); and other state highways. Distance of farms to paved
roads was also determined.
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Many factors influence market price of farm land. Cross classifi-
cation and multiple regression analyses were attempted, the latter technique
proving the most efficient. More than 30 variables were considered in
attempts to isolate road service effects on land values. The two most
significant factors (besides roads) influencing value of land were land
use (expressed in terms of value of buildings on the land) and productivity
(expressed in terms of percent cropland, yield, and land and soil classifi-
cations). In comparative analyses, these two variables, in addition to
road type location, were taken into account.
Data sources included warranty deed records, interviews with buyers,
and maps of the area.
Impacts
Initial analysis of land prices and road type location showed that
average price per acre was $97 for farms on dirt roads; $138 on gravel roads;
$150 on farm-to-market roads; and $168 on other state highways. The. average
for all farms was $136 per acre. When relations to land use and productivity
were included, similar consistent differences were found. For example, there
was a 74% increase between location on dirt roads and location on state
highways, essentially the same as the difference noted above.
The prices of land located on dirt and gravel roads were not greatly
affected by distance from pavement. With other important variables held
constant, most of the discount in price for location on dirt roads occurred
within the first mile (from a paved road); larger distances had a relatively
slight additional effect.
Several buyer characteristics were correlated with road type. In
1959, only 14% of buyers of farms on dirt roads lived on the land purchased;
about two-thirds of these buyers indicated that their purpose in buying the
land was to add to adjacent holdings. Thirty percent of buyers of farms
on gravel roads and thirty-six percent for farms on paved roads lived on
the purchased land.
The only significant correlation between quality of road service and
land use was in regard to value of farm buildings: land on gravel and paved
roads had buildings valued more than five times those on land serviced by
dirt roads. Only one-third of farms on dirt roads had dwellings. Apparently,
farms on dirt roads are accorded little value for residential purposes.
Generally, the better the road type, the greater the building value per
acre.
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I-C-08.
Carroll, Donald D. , J. R. Borchert, J. Schwinder, and P. M. Raup. The
Economic Impact of Highway Development Upon Land Use and Value^
Development of Methodology and Analysis of Selected Highway Segments
in Minnesota, University of Minnesota, September 1958.
Summary
The study examines the process and causes of change in land use and
value, and methods for analyzing growth patterns spatially and over time.
The study focuses on three highway segments in the Minneapolis area from
1950 to 1958, including a bypass highway, a feeder into the city, and a
limited-access divided highway. Emphasis is on methodology, with implica-
tions for further use in impact analysis.
Study Area and Investment
The three highway segments were chosen to represent different road
types and to reflect various levels of rural, urban, and suburban development.
Their locations reflect differing growth patterns of the Twin Cities area.
Impacts
Land use patterns for 1950-58 established through aerial maps indicate
that commercial-industrial use on highway frontage doubled over five to six
years and that roads introduce a strong tendency towards commercial-industrial
strips in suburban areas, regardless of zoning. The pressure for commercial
development caused by a highway in a residential area soon arrests residential
growth. In urban-fringe areas, commercial-industrial land use is related to
the density of local and commuter traffic. Furthermore, commercial-industrial
development is attracted to interchanges, rather than interior locations, by
a three to one ratio.
Land values increased progressively as land use, stimulated by highway
construction, changed from agricultural to a combination of agricultural,
residential, commercial and vacant land. Later changes were dependent upon
the area's rate of urbanization, and were largely independent of the highway.
Methodology
Time series mapping and land use profiles of selected land strips were
used to determine urban growth trends since 1900. Land values were derived
from annual assessors' data and property sales statistics through regression
analyses and frequency distributions. Areas were divided into grids in order
to make land use and value data comparable.
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Conclusions
A major theme of the report is that economic development stimulated
by highways in turn affects further highway development. Land use and land
values are not related simply to highways; often, they are independent of
highways. Accordingly, isolation of independent urban growth trends over
time is essential in assessing land use impacts of highways. The time
sequence of land use and value changes is of major importance in identifying
causal links in land development.
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I-C-11.
Cribbins, P. D., W. T. Hill and H. 0. Seagiraves, "Economic Impact of Selected
Sections of Interstate Routes on Land Value and Use," Highway Research
Record, Number 75, pp. 1-31, 1965.
Summary
The economic effects of controlled-access facilities in North Carolina
on surrounding property values and development are assessed using a before
and after method and multiple regression analysis techniques for each study
period. Three sections of Interstate Routes 1-95, 1-40, and 1-85 in three
counties are examined. These roads are radial-interurban highway segments
in rural-urban fringe areas. Land values were examined as a function of:
parcel size; year of sale; vacant/non-vacant land use; rural-urban land use;
subdivision; roadside location (with respect to test facility); alternate
roadway location (with respect to other major routes); and three location
variables (straight-line distance to the central business district; to the
right-of-way; and to the nearest interchange).
Study Area and Investment
In 1960, 200 miles of controlled-access Interstate highways had been
completed in North Carolina. The three segments chosen for analysis (radial
highways in rural-urban fringe areas) satisfied the condition that public
notice of highway construction had been given at least three years prior to
1960, and offered the following advantages for study: clear separation of
highway impact from city influence since distance from radial facility and
the CBD were independently variable; easy tracing of land use changes since
these rural-urban fringe areas were mostly undeveloped.
Impacts
A controlled-access roadway does not appear to disrupt overall property
values in the general area in which the roadway is constructed. The average
price of all land was significantly higher in the after period as compared to
the before period, with one exception. The magnitudes and percentages of
increases varied greatly between sites and between land uses. The largest
increases were observed for farm land (198.2%) and rural residential land
(197.2%) in one of the subject counties.
The most important single factor influencing land value for all land-
use types was size of parcel. For all sites and uses, smaller parcels were
sold in the after period. Decreased parcel size may not be a direct highway
effect but rather a result of demands of an increasing population on a fixed
land supply. The causation chain was not clear, since the magnitude of change
in parcel size was erratic.
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Statistical analysis indicated that the investigated highways had
no measurable effect on development within the study area. The absence
of clearly discernible patterns between land use or land values and
highway variables suggests that general increases in land value are
determined largely by conditions within the localities, and are influenced
only indirectly by highway facilities.
Methodology
Before and after analysis was conducted in an overall study period
from January 1, 1947 to June 30, 1961. Data bases included: tax maps and
records, warranty deeds, airphotos, and field checks to determine land use.
Multiple regression analysis was performed to relate land values to ten
variables (parcel size, year of sale, vacant/non-vacant, rural-urban, sub-
division, roadside, other roadway, distance to right-of-way, distance to
CBD, distance to interchange). Results of preliminary analyses indicated
that the land use variables (vacant/non-vacant, rural-urban) were highly
significant factors in sales price. Accordingly, a second analysis was
performed using seven land classifications: vacant, farm land, residential,
public, commercial, industrial, and rural-residential.
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I-C-29.
Kentucky, University of^ The Effect of the Louisville Watterson Expressway
on Land Use and Land Values, Lexington, Kentucky, 1960.
Summary
The effects of the Louisville Watterson Expressway on land use and
land value were assessed, using three time periods (pre-construction, during
construction, and post-construction) and control area comparisons where
possible. The expressway, a four-lane, limited access facility bordering
Louisville on the south, was opened in 1956.
Study Area and Investment
Louisville's main employment base is manufacturing, totaling 35.7% of
the labor force. The area is served by railroads, bus lines, and two major
airports; low cost water transportation has been a significant factor in
determining industrial location. The Ohio River, bordering Louisville on
the north, limits the city's expansion in north and west directions. The
population of-Jefferson County increased 20% from 1950 to 1958; Louisville
has also experienced growth, but at a slower rate.
In 1959, the Watterson Expressway was a 12.7 mile, four-lane facility
passing through unimproved land on the eastern and western extremities, and
through residential land along the middle portion of the road. Commercial
developments were located near several intersections with radial streets.
An eight-mile portion of the expressway was studied.
Methodology
A land use inventory was conducted using 19A7 as the base year, and
study areas were defined north (3,695 acres) and south (4,950 acres) of the
expressway. A smaller area was also studied within approximately 1,000 feet
of the road. Land use classifications included: residential-vacant (land
subdivided for residential use, but not yet developed); idle; farm; residen-
tial; commercial; industrial; and institutional. Residential building permit
data were examined, and interviews were conducted with local real estate
agents, commercial developers, and individual business establishments.
Four study areas were selected for analysis of land values, each
representing four different property types (commercial, old residential,
new residential, and farm land). Control areas were located for commercial
and old residential areas, and correlation techniques were used to estimate
highway impact for the remaining areas. Three time periods were used:
(1) pre-construction (1940-1946); (2) construction (ending in 1950 for new
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residential and farm land area, in 1952 for the commercial area; and in 1955
for old residential areas); and (3) post-construction (extending through 1958).
Impacts
Examination of land use in 1947, 1954, and 1959 showed that by 1954,
the amount of farm land had decreased significantly south of the expressway
(from 82% to 57% of total land area). Residential land use increased from
5% to 16% of total land. Residential-vacant land increased (from 4.7% to
9.7%), as did idle (6.3% to 11.2%), industrial (0.9% to 3.1%), and institutional
(0.1% to 0.9%). Commercial land showed a slight decline (from 1.9% to 1.6%).
Similar, though smaller changes were observed in the area north of the
expressway.
From 1954 to 1959 there was a continuing decrease in farm land on
both sides of the expressway. Residential land increased, largely through
conversion of land from the residential-vacant and idle categories. The
initial increase of land in these categories shows- that as .land moves toward
its ultimate use, it is held out (perhaps for speculative reasons) temporarily.
Residential property closer to the expressway tended to be less
expensive, while property 1/2 to 1 mile from the road showed value increases
because of increased accessibility without highway annoyances. It is hypothe-
sized that builders, anticipating adverse highway impacts, chose to build less
expensive housing near the expressway.
Land at interchanges developed more rapidly than did land between
interchanges. However the growth pattern was inconsistent, with some inter-
changes exhibiting no growth. Some adverse expressway effects on local
business establishments were observed, but these appeared to be diminishing
over time.
The effect of the expressway on the value of old and new nearby
residential development was insignificant. Land value increases were most
substantial when accompanied by a conversion to a higher land use; especially
when farm land was converted to commercial uses. In these cases, value
increases directly attributable to the expressway ranged from approximately
100% to 300%. Unconverted farm land showed a slight positive increase (15%).
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I-C-32.
Lemly., J. H. , "Changes in Land Use and Value Along Atlanta's Expressways,"
Highway Research Board, Bulletin 227, pp. 1-20, 1959.
Summary
An analysis of changes in land use and value from 1941 to 1956
along a 7.5 mile segment of Atlanta's Northeast Expressway was conducted,
using before and after and control area techniques. Changes were evaluated
in relation to: distance from the central business district (CBD); distance
from the expressway; and accessibility to the expressway. Control areas were
located in the southern Atlanta area. Property sales and prices provided the
basis for identifying changes during the study period.
Study Area and Investment
The Northeast Expressway feeds traffic into the northern portion of
Atlanta's CBD. The expressway studied is the oldest completed section, has.
eight intersections, two street grade separations, and serves a broad cross-
section of commercial and industrial properties as well as suburban residential
sectors. The expressway had been under development for eleven years at the time
of the study.
Methodology
A fifteen-year study period was divided into three segments: 1941-1946,
prior to construction; 1947-1951, planning and initial construction; and 1952-
1956, partial expressway completion. It is recognized that an additional post-
construction period analysis would provide more conclusive insights. Land
value and use were derived from property sales statistics. Three location
designations (distance from CBD, distance from expressway, and accessibility
to expressway) were used to organize and examine changes during the study
period.
Impacts
The relation of land values to distance from the CBD was influenced by
a geographical factor. All property on the east side of the study area was
closer to the CBD and values were consistently higher than for property on the
west side. In Period I (1941-1946) , land values did not vary uniformly with
distance to the CBD; neighborhood characteristics were important in determining
land value. New development showed a tendency to leap-frog over older regions
with declining desirability, causing irregular value patterns. In Period III,
only two major variations due to neighborhood characteristics were noted. The
introduction of the expressway seems to have resulted in a more uniform distri-
bution of values with distance to the CBD.
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In Period I, land closest to the expressway had lower value than
land farther removed. This was largely a reflection of the fact that the
expressway was routed through vacant or underdeveloped land wherever possible.
In Period III, this trend still existed, but the discrepancy in values had
decreased substantially. The expressway led to an increase in value of
adjacent land, and the study suggests that such appreciation will continue.
Significant changes in land values occurred along major streets
crossing the expressway. The rate of commercial development along these
major traffic arteries (all constructed prior to the expressway) accelerated
markedly after expressway construction. The increase is attributed to
accessibility to the expressway.
Other expressway impacts included: a rapid change from residential to
commercial and light industrial activity in the downtown sector of the study
area; and a large conversion of land to industrial zoning or use near the
expressway; and new residential development beyond the study area.
Conclusions
The expressway had a major influence on land use and land value.
These impacts are likely to be found generally in other metropolitan areas.
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I-C-43.
Philbrick, Allen K., Analyses of the Geographical Patterns of Gross
Land Uses and Changes in Numbers of Structures in Relation to Major
Highways in the Lower Half of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan,
Michigan State University, 1961.
Summary
The expansion of urban land uses and structures was related to the
pattern of highway development in the Lower Peninsula area of Michigan
by comparative mapping techniques. Gross land use changes over time were
evaluated, and urban land uses correlated with distance from highways and
distance from urban centers. Farm and non-farm dwelling units were also
examined by mapping techniques. Ten dispersed city regions were identified
and spatially related to a "web of highway impact" area.
Study Area and Investment
Gross land use was examined in 47 counties with a total land area
of about 29,000 square miles and a 1950 population of 5.8 million; structures
(farm and non-farm units) were examined in 28 of these counties. State and
federal highways totaled 5,457 miles in the entire study area. The invest-
ments studied were mainly grid or radial highways.
Methodology
The land use study included: classification of land uses (agriculture,
forest, non-farm residential, and other non-farm uses); mapping (based on
observations by traversing the area by automobile and from previous records);
map analysis; and interpretation. Structures on the land were classified
as: (1) farm residences; (2) non-farm dwellings; and (3) stores or small
business establishments. Land was classified by "quarter sections," i.e.,
unit areas of 1/4 square mile.
Data, from regional planning commissions and the state highway depart-
ment, were compared from the late 1930's to the 1950's to evaluate structure
development.
The overall study area was divided into "cells" bounded by intersecting
state and federal highways.. There were 254 such cells in the entire area.
Each cell was divided in turn into "strips" parallel to each highway; strips
had a depth of 1 mile (composed of two rows of quarter sections) and lengths
varying from 3 to 9 miles (average length for all strips was 6 miles).
Mapping by strips was used to examine the variation in non-farm land use
with distance from highway frontage and distance outward from urban centers.
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Each cell was characterized by the average percentage of its quarter
sections exhibiting some land use other than agricultural or forest. Each
strip in a cell was similarly characterized by its percentage of quarter
sections having some non-farm use. Strips having percentages higher than
the average for their cell were considered to show impact by highways. All
impacted strips which formed a compact group contiguous to one of the highway
frontages were shaded on a map to display the "web of highway impact."
Impacts
About 93% (5,100 miles out of a total of 5,460 miles) of state and
federal highways in the study area showed impact to a depth of at least
one mile. The percentage of impacted areas contiguous to highway frontage
was somewhat lower. About 82% (8,960 miles out of a total frontage of
10,900 miles) showed impact to a depth of at least one mile.
The proportion of miles of highway (both sides) exhibiting impact
two or more miles in depth (significant because it describes more than the
usual roadside clutter of houses and highway-oriented businesses) was 76%;
and for three or more miles the percentage was 38%.
Analysis of the composite results showed that the "web of highway
impact1.1 area (i.e., the area occupied by contiguous strips having greater
than average non-farm land use) was 43%. At the same time, 74% of all
quarter sections having non-farm residences or businesses within them were
within the "web of highway impact" area. This result suggests that the
"web of highway impact" is a measure of the geographic distribution of a
dispersed urban area whose connecting links are state and federal highways.
Ten "dispersed city" regions were identified within the study area
using the "web of highway impact" as a measure and visual analysis. The
ten dispersed city regions occupied about 26% of the total study area in
1950 and were geographically grouped in three major complexes (Detroit-Saginaw,
Western Michigan, Capitol Complex). About 82% of the population of the overall
area lived within these dispersed cities in 1950. The percentage of population
living within nucleated settlements (incorporated or unincorporated) in each
dispersed city region varied from 22 to 53%. Almost 90% of the total popula-
tion increase of the study area from 1940 to 1950 was within the dispersed
city regions.
Structures (farm and non-farm) were examined in relation to highways
for 28 counties within the study area. Their total population in 1950 was
5.1 million of which 1.16 million was rural. The proportion of rural popula-
tion living in non-farm dwellings increased from 3.6% in 1940 to 14.6% in
1950. About 74% of units constructed during the decade were within the
"web of highway impact" area. The high increase of non-farm dwellings,
substantially highway-oriented, underscores the dispersion of urban land
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uses and urban population after World War II.
Conclusions
The observed patterns of urban facilities illustrate the growth of
dispersed city regions of much larger area than previously supposed. Dis-
persed city regions are inter-connected by highways into what is called
the "dispersed city realm."
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I-C-45.
Rogers, Andrei, The Time Lag of Factors Influencing Land Development,
(in collaboration with F. S. Chapin, Jr., T. G. Donnelly, and
S. F. Weiss), Institute for Research in Social Science, University
of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C., October 1963.
Summary
Time lag of primary factors as they act together to structure spatial
distribution of urban activities is analyzed. The City of Greensboro, N.C.
was the study area. Six key independent variables influencing land develop-
ment are examined over a 12-year study period (1948-1960). The two most
statistically significant independent variables ("accessibility ro work
areas" and "distance to nearest elementary school") had lag times between
3 and 6 years.
Theories and Assumptions
The land development pattern of a city is the cumulative result of
public and private decisions over time. "Primary" decisions consist of
preconditioning actions (e.g., location decision for a new highway; extension
of water and sewer facilities into an area); "secondary" decisions are
triggered by primary decisions. Together, they produce the aggregate land
development pattern of an urban area.
Time lag is a continuous phenomenon rather than a discrete time
period. However, for purposes of the study, time lag is defined by the
elapsed time for a change in a primary factor to achieve its maximum influence
in land development. Maximum influence-is defined by the maximum of its con-
tribution to the statistical explanation of total variance or by the maximum
of its relative influence with respect to predictive ability within the total
mix of independent variables.
Methodology
The study area (Greensboro, N.C.) was gridded into 3,980 square cells,
1,000 feet on a side. Six key independent variables were sufficient to
represent adequately fundamental factors influencing land development:
(1) marginal land not in urban use; (2) assessed value; (3) accessibility
to work areas; (4) availability of public sewerage; (5) distance to nearest
major street; and (6) distance to nearest elementary school.
A linear regression model was used to relate total land in urban use
to the six independent variables. Factors (1) and (2) were held constant
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at their 1948 level, since data were available only at one point in time.
Regression analyses were conducted for the remaining four factors at 3-year
intervals.
Results and Conclusions
Regression results indicated that 'accessibility to work areas'
reached its peak influence with respect to-I960 land use around 1957;
'distance to major street' and 'distance to nearest available elementary
school' reached their peaks around 1954. 'Availability of public sewerage'
showed a uniform distribution of influence.
'Accessibility to work areas' and 'distance to nearest elementary
school' were the most statistically significant variables the former
seemed to exhibit an influence after a 3-year time lag, while the latter
showed a slightly longer time lag (between 3 and 6 years).
The time lag in newly developing areas was examined by using only'
cells totally undeveloped in 1948 (2,554 cells). The peak influence point
of 'accessibility to work areas' shifted from 1957 to 1948, indicating that
the time lag of this factor in outlying newly developed areas is considerably
longer than that for the urbanized area as a whole. The other factor,
'distance to nearest available elementary school', still exhibited a 3 to
6 year time lag in newly developing areas.
Examination of residentially developed cells (2,003 cells) increased
the time lag of 'accessibility to work areas' from 3 to 6 years, and
'distance to nearest available elementary school' was reduced to less than
3 years.
The significance of these results must be qualified by the relatively
narrow range of changes in the independent variables over the 12-year span
examined.
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I-C-50.
Stein, Martin M., "Highway Interchange Area Development Some Recent
Findings," Public Roads, Vol 35, No. 11, pp. 241-250, December 1969.
Summary
Data on 332 interchanges, predominantly rural, in sixteen states
show that interchange land development is affected both by type of inter-
secting highway and by the relative accessibility of interchange quadrants.
A large part of development consists of highway-oriented businesses (motels,
service stations, restaurants). In contrast, interchange development on a
circumferential, suburban highway shows rapid growth in numbers of apartment
houses, churches, schools, shopping centers and industrial parks.
Previous studies on the relation of interchange development to traffic
volumes, distance to urban centers, and population of nearest urban center
are summarized. Models and statistical approaches to forecasting of inter-
change development are also reviewed.
Study Area and Investment
Interchanges in predominantly rural areas are examined from 1960 to
L967. Development is statistically correlated to the kinds of intersecting
facilities and the interchange quadrant. Interstate highway interchanges
with local roads, state-numbered highways, and U.S.-numbered highways are
addressed. Some data are also presented for Interstate-Interstate crossings
and for interchanges of two non-Interstate highways.
In the case of an Interstate facility, two quadrant groups are defined.
The first quadrant on the motorist's right as he approaches the interchange
(on the Interstate highway) from either direction is the 'right' quadrant;
the remaining two quadrants comprise the 'other1 group. Interchange design
is also evaluated, based on accessibility provided by free access or frontage
roads.
Interchange development at circumferential highways is discussed, with
specific reference to the Capital Beltway in Washington, D. C., Route 495 in
Massachusetts, and the Baltimore Beltway in Maryland.
Impacts
For all types of interchanges, agricultural use accounted for 36%
and residential use for 23% of all interchange-related land, while 11% was
vacant. Highway-related uses accounted for 17% and institutional, industrial,
and commercial uses took up the remaining 13% of the land.
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A division by type of intersection resulted in significant differences
from the average percentages. Interstate highway interchanges with local
roads, for example, showed 43% agricultural and/or vacant land, while inter-
sections of two Interstate highways had 55% of land in these categories.
The difference is attributed in part to the fact that Interstate-Interstate
intersections were the latest to be constructed and have not yet developed
fully.
Directional and cloverleaf interchanges were found to have roughly
equivalent amounts of commercial, industrial, and institutional land.
However, among cloverleaf interchanges, those with access provided by
frontage roads or crossroads had significantly more intensive development
than restricted access interchanges.
An evaluation of development along suburban circumferential highways
revealed a much different developmental pattern. In such cases, industry,
commerce, and high-density residential uses appeared much more frequently
than highway-related businesses. For example, surveys of Capital Beltway
interchanges near Washington, D. C. between 1964 and 1968 showed a continuing
increase of institutional uses such as churches and schools, with apartment
buildings the second most frequent use of interchange land.
Methodology
Seven land use development categories were used to correlate data on
332 interchanges. These included: highway-related development; commercial;
residential; agricultural; vacant; institutional; and industrial. Data was
obtained from recently completed interchange studies. Predictive techniques
developed in other research efforts are discussed, and include: using ratios
to compare different land use development types; multilinear regression
analysis; and simultaneous equation modeling. Examination of land develop-
ment over time indicates that certain land uses attract other uses; dynamic
modeling is suggested for analyzing and predicting these relationships.
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II. MASS TRANSIT
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11-14.
Gannon, Colin A. and Michael J. Dear, The Impact of Rail Rapid Transit
Systems on Commercial Office Development. The Case of the Philadelphia-
Lindenwold Speedline, University of Pennsylvania, Transportation Studies
Center, June 1972.
Summary
A preliminary analysis was made of the effects of the Philadelphia-
Lindenwold Speedline on commercial office development in the Philadelphia
metropolitan region and'the "Speedline Communities" in Camden County within
this region. Trends in growth and spatial distribution of population, total
employment (disaggregated into manufacturing; finance, insurance, and real
estate; wholesale and retail trade; and small services and amusements), and
commercial office development (available space, new construction, rent levels)
are analyzed in relation to the mass transit facility.
Study Area and Investment
The Speedline is an electric, highly automated, dual rail rapid transit
facility, opened in 1969. It links the Philadelphia central business district
(CBD) with the city of Lindenwold in Camden County, and passes through several
low-density suburban communities in southern New Jersey. The Speedline route
is 14.5 miles long; parking facilities are available at six suburban stations
for approximately 8,760 cars.
Methodology
Data were collected at the metropolitan (Philadelphia SMSA), county
(eight counties within the SMSA), and local (municipalities near the Speedline)
levels. The economic and demographic spatial structure was analyzed from
population census data and employment by two-digit SIC codes for counties and
minor civil divisions. Additional data were building permits and business
telephone activity, and interviews with recently located office occupants
and local commercial office realtors and developers.
Impacts
Population, economic growth, and commercial office development patterns
from 1960-1970 were examined for the Philadelphia SMSA, Camden County, and
"Speedline Communities."
The city population of Philadelphia declined at a mean annual rate of
0.3% from 1960-1970, while suburbs in both Pa. and N.J. gained steadily
(2.1% and 2.7% per annum respectively). Philadelphia experienced only a
small relative expansion in total employment during this period, while the
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surrounding counties exhibited strong growth.
Camden County showed a similar decentralization trend. Caraden City
(the largest municipality) declined while the "Speedline Communities" increased
both in population and employment. The largest of these communities (excluding
Camden City) is Cherry Hill, N.J., accounting for 40.8% of the communities'
population in 1970.
Finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE), services and government
expanded most rapidly during this period. These groups have traditionally
been heavily concentrated in the central core and are the most intensive users
of commercial office space. From 1960-1970, two-thirds of the total growth in
the SMSA was in suburban areas.
Employment in Camden City fell from 64.6% of the county total to 36.1%,
while the suburban municipalities rose correspondingly. Losses in the city
were mainly in manufacturing industries. The "Speedline Communities" as a
whole experienced growth in all examined sectors and also grew more rapidly
than the county as a whole in all sectors except small services.
Philadelphia dominates the current stock of office space, but a rapidly
growing amount is being supplied in suburban communities. From 1960-1970,
two-thirds of the new suburban space was in Montgomery and Camden Counties,
concentrated in a few communities, especially those which exhibit agglomera-
tion economies (region-wide accessibility, for example).
The Speedline is expected to have an impact on the Philadelphia CBD as
well as on suburban areas (especially Camden County). Office construction
activity along the Speedline corridor, and especially in the vicinity of
Haddonfield Station, is presently (1972) flourishing. Although vacancy rates
are high and rental levels comparable with other suburban locations, there is
a steady net absorption of office floorspace in Speedline locations. This is
not the case in other suburban locations.
The Speedline has provided an impetus for small, but significant changes
in suburban office development. Interviews of post-1968 office space users
within Haddonfield Station proximity (43 industries) indicated that 68% of these
companies had relocated from Camden City. The relative importance of the Speed-
line among the factors mentioned in the location decision (dissatisfaction
with Camden, desire to expand, access to clients and employee residences, the
Speedline) is difficult to assess. However, present trends indicate that the
Speedline may be causing spatial displacement of activity, rather than generating
new activity. Thus, rather than rejuvenating Camden City, the Speedline has
provided an opportunity for firms to leave the city.
The Speedline has reduced significantly automobile traffic congestion
between south Jersey and downtown Philadelphia. Ridership on the Speedline
doubled from 1969 to 1972 to 32,000 person trips per day. The success of the
line in serving low-density areas indicates that residential high-density is
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not a prerequisite for transit use, as suggested by other research.
A review of transit experiences in Toronto and San Francisco suggest
that the precise effects of transit on real estate development are difficult
to assess. Residential development (especially construction of high-density
apartment buildings along the transportation corridor) tends to be most
immediate, followed by construction of office buildings. Generally, the
response of real estate developers to transit investment tends to await
completion of the facility.
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11-19.
Heenan, G. Warren, "The Economic Effect of Rapid Transit on Real Estate
Development," The Appraisal Journal, Vol 36, No. 2, pp. 212-224,
April 1968.
Summary
The economic effects of public transit are discussed, with specific
reference to the Yonge Street Subway in Toronto, opened in 1954. Additional
planned and operating mass transit facilities in the Toronto Metropolitan
Area, and the planning aspects of the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) System
in San Francisco are also discussed. Substantial impacts of transit on
land use are suggested, especially those arising from housing, manufacturing,
and commerce. The author, advocates integrated transportation and develop-
ment planning, and views mass transit as an essential part of a balanced
urban transportation system.
Study Area and Investment
In 1954, thirteen municipalities united to form the Municipality of
Metropolitan Toronto, and assume responsibility for major regional services,
including transportation. The municipality includes an area of 720 square
miles, and had a 1968 population of 2,250,000 persons.
The 4 1/2 mile Yonge Street Subway, along Toronto's most heavily
traveled route, was opened in 1954. In 1963 an eight mile crosstown
extension to this subway was completed (the Bloor-Danforth-University
Subway). Additional extensions are planned to enlarge the system to a
total of 21 miles.
Impacts
The author suggests that the 4 1/2 mile Yonge Street Subway System
is responsible for $10 billion of development near the subway line. Over
a decade, property value appreciation has totaled $15 billion; two-thirds
of this is attributed to the subway route. From 1952 to 1962, tax assess-
ment increases in districts contiguous to the subway ranged from 45% to 107%,
while the remaining city areas averaged a 25% increase.
From 1959 to 1963, 48.5% of all high-rise apartment development
occurred in four planning districts through which the subway passes. Also,
the bulk of major office construction during the same period occurred in
three planning districts serviced by the transit line. Two-thirds of all
development was within five minutes walking distance from the subway.
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Zoning policies were redefined by Toronto's planning staff to
structure and accommodate growth. Apartment zoning includes four
locational sectors (central, inner, intermediate, outer). The inner
and intermediate sectors are zoned according to three density ranges,
based on proximity to the subway.
A 52-mile subway system and rail commuter line operating along the
north shore of Lake Ontario was subsidized by the Ontario Government. The
capital cost ($15 million) and yearly operating cost ($2 million) are less
than the costs of an expressway system ($20 million per mile). The success
in acceptance of this system (opened in 1967) suggests that a long-term plan
for regional growth should include a system of commuter train lines,
channeling development of satellite cities to key points on the system.
The planning for the BART System in San Francisco is cited as
reflecting many of the zoning and development policies proven successful
in-Toronto's experience.
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11-41.
Sheldon, Nancy W.,-and R. Brandwein, The Economic and Social Impact of
Investments in Public Transit, Harbridge House, Inc., published by
Lexington Books, Lexington, Massachusetts, 1973.
Summary
An overview of user, operator, and community benefits derived from
improvements or extensions of public transportation, and summaries and
analyses of case studies on rapid rail transit, bus transit, and commuter
rail systems in U.S. metropolitan areas are presented. The authors suggest
that frequently, though not always, public transit is a good alternative to
highways in urban areas, providing broad social benefits (e.g., equality
of access, increased economic vitality). It is suggested that for defined
transportation objectives, rail rapid transit, as an alternative to auto-
mobile and bus transportation, ranks first in terms of total benefits.
It is further suggested that use of Highway Trust Fund revenues to support
public transit would be an equitable, socially responsible, and efficient
policy decision.
Study Area and Investment
Case study summaries of rapid rail systems and of their impacts
include the BART System, San Francisco; Broad Street Subway, Philadelphia;
the Cleveland Transit System; the Washington, D. C. Metropolitan Area
Transit Authority; the Chicago Area Transit Authority Subway Expansion
Program; and the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, Boston.
Aspects of bus transit service addressed include use of exclusive
bus lanes (Shirley Highway, Washington, D. C.; Lincoln Tunnel, New York City);
Dial-a-Ride service (Mansfield, Ohio; Peoria, Illinois - Flint, Michigan;
Los Angeles, California); express bus service (Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Balti-
more City, Maryland); new equipment; and quality of service.
Two operating commuter rail systems are also examined (Philadelphia-
Lindenwold and the Skokie Swift Lines).
Methodology
The findings of previous studies relating to economic and social
impacts of public transit are ordered in terms of goal-achievement analysis.
The analysis includes the identification of community goals, translation of
goals into achievable objectives, and the ultimate weighting of benefits.
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Urban transportation objectives are defined, with respect to bus, rapid
rail, and commuter rail transit, and expressed in terms of economic
efficiency and equity. Individual programs, by geographic area, are
then analyzed for evidence of specific impact on the transportation
objectives.
Transportation objectives are categorized according to type of
impacted group (i.e., user, operator, community). User benefits of public
transit include: (1) equality of access to urban opportunities for the
poor, elderly, young, and handicapped (comprising in aggregate 25% of the
U.S. population); (2) time savings afforded by public transit (vs. auto-
mobile transportation); (3) cost savings; and (4) increased safety.
Operator benefits from mass transit improvements include cost savings
(operation and maintenance) and a decrease in vandalism and crime.
Community benefits include benefits to nontransit travelers, for example,
through decreased automobile congestion; increased employment; and real
estate development. Other impacts are environmental (noise and air pollu-
tion) and impacts on land use planning.
Impacts
Rail Rapid Transit
The BART System in San Francisco has stimulated real estate develop-
ment in the Market Street vicinity, where $1 billion in new construction
has occurred in the past five years; in Oakland, where 4.3 million square
feet of office space demand is anticipated over the next twenty years; and
in Walnut Creek where suburban development is taking place. Residential
property values have also increased approximately $1,500 for every ten
minutes saving in travel time to major employment centers. It is anticipated
that BART will carry 40% of all rush-hour traffic, reducing automobile
congestion.
The subway station renovation program along the Broad Street Subway
in Philadelphia is expected to attract ridership from other modes, and
increase adjacent property values, reduce street congestion, and generally
uplift the quality of life in the area.
The Cleveland Transit System, initially 14.9 miles in length and
opened in 1955, now provides access to the downtown loop and to the Hopkins
Airport. Extensions to this system have improved access to commercial and
cultural facilities.
The Washington, D. C. Metropolitan Area Transit System is expected
to improve greatly access to employment opportunities throughout the region,
primarily through "reverse haul" service which is presently nonexistent.
Nondiverted peak-period motorists (e.g., tourists) will benefit from
reduced automobile congestion; the trucking industry will benefit through
more efficient operation.
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The Chicago Transit Authority's proposed subway expansion program
(to be completed in 1978) is expected to generate real property value
increases totaling $1.8 billion in 15 years, and 22,000 jobs (a 29%
increase in the employment growth rate).
The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority recently completed
a 15-mile South Shore extension. The benefits of this improvement include:
elimination of a $1 million a year subsidy to the New Haven Railroad
previously providing commuter service; new real estate development in
Quincy, Mass., including a $100 million State Street Bank complex covering
80 acres; a reduction of commuter automobile traffic by at least 15%.
Bus Transit
The designation of an exclusive bus lane on an existing highway
to maximize the movement of multiple-rider vehicles during periods of
rush hour congestion has been implemented on Shirley Highway in Washington,
D. C. and the Lincoln Tunnel, New York City, among other places. A survey
of Shirley Highway bus riders indicated that 2 out of 3 persons were "choice"
riders (had access to a car). The main user benefits are time savings,
safety, and cost.
Express bus projects, supplying through-service along highways
(e.g., for commuters and shoppers) have also been established experimentally.
New, improved bus equipment and increased quality of service (e.g. , more
"route selection) are cited as areas which could result in increased attrac-
tiveness of bus transit to potential riders.
Commuter Rail
The Skokie Swift, a rail rapid transit commuter service that shuttles
from Skokie to Chicago, Illinois (5 miles), was originally opened in 1964
as a two-year public transit demonstration project. Anticipated ridership
was 1,600 passengers daily, but actual ridership exceeded this estimate by
three to four times. The system provided a transportation choice that
equaled or exceeded the speed and convenience of available modes (automobile
and bus) at a reasonable cost; opened job opportunities for central city
residents; and provided feasible transportation to about 30% of the riders
(2,400 persons) who formerly did not travel between Skokie and Chicago by
any mode. Community benefits included increased employee stability for the
firms near the line; an improved apartment rental market; and an opportunity
for suburban expansion.
The Philadelphia-Lindenwold Line, a 14.5 mile commuter rail service
opened in January 1969, now serves almost 40,000 riders per day, and has
generated diverse real estate development in the suburban areas, and signi-
ficantly reduced automobile congestion.
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III. WASTEWATER FACILITIES
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111-04.
Metropolitan Council of Governments (Washington Metropolitan Area),
Department of Health and Environmental Protection, Analysis of the
Joint Interactions of Water Supply, Public Policy, and Land Development
Patterns in an Expanding Metropolitan Area, Final Report to the Office
of Water Resources Research, U.S. Department of the Interior, September
1973.
Summary
Possible relations between sewer extensions and population growth
in the Washington Metropolitan Area are statistically examined in the
period 1960 to 1968. Simple statistical analysis by watershed suggests
a relation between population growth and sewer capacity. A relation with
higher statistical significance was obtained when the amount of vacant
land divided by an average, straight line distance to trunk sewer service
was also included. Analysis of the same data by EMPIRIC model districts
does not yield results consistent with those found for watersheds.
Study Area and Investment
The Washington Metropolitan Area grew rapidly in population during
the 1960-1970 decade. About 800,000 people were added (to a 1960 population
of two million) and 50,000 acres of vacant land were converted to urban
uses. Substantial sewer extensions were installed during the same period.
For example, sewers in service in Montgomery County increased from 790 to
1,390 thousand miles while the population rose from 340 to 550 thousand;
in Prince Georges County, sewer miles increased from 700 to 1,400 thousand
while the population rose from 360 to 680 thousand.
Methodology
The EMPIRIC model was the basic framework for the analysis; EMPIRIC
calibration data were a major part of the data base. In the EMPIRIC model,
the Washington Metropolitan Area is divided into 'policy analysis districts'
on the basis of transportation corridors. Changes in households and employ-
ment levels (divided into various categories) are allocated in 8-year
intervals beginning in 1960. The model was calibrated for 117 districts
(defined on the basis of 1960 census tracts) with data for 1960 and 1968.
The Washington Metropolitan Area was further subdivided in this study
by a grid consisting of 2,000 foot squares. A computer program digitized and
identified each grid square by the EMPIRIC calibration district to which it
belonged. The impact of trunk sewers on development was analyzed in the first
instance by considering development and trunk service for each grid square.
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The impact of trunk sewer lines was quantified in terms of
"gravity spheres" and hydraulic design capacity. A "gravity sphere" is
the area potentially serviceable by a trunk sewer; it is defined by
geographic drainage patterns (watersheds and subsheds), location of
treatment plants, and location of forced mains and pumping stations.
Statistical analysis consisted of simple correlations between
population and various measures of sewer service.
Impacts
The EMPIRIC model formulation for the Washington Metropolitan Area
includes three relations involving water and sewer variables: (1) the
change in share of lower-middle income households from 1960 to 1968 is
linearly related to the base year (1960) share of sewered land multiplied
by percent vacant land; (2) che change in share of upper income households
is related to share of percent watered land in each district; and (3) the
change in share of employment is related to the base year share of watered
land divided by used land area.
Sewer data were collected in the present study for each grid square
and were aggregated by watershed. Correlations were found between growth
in a watershed, expressed as change in share of regional population, and
change in design capacity; and between change in share of regional popula-
tion in a watershed and a "composite capacity and location factor" including,
besides change in hydraulic design capacity of trunk sewers, the amount of
vacant land in the area during the base year multiplied by the inverse of
its average straight line distance to trunk sewers.
When the same data were aggregated by EMPIRIC policy district rather
than by watershed, no significant correlations of population growth (in terms
of changes in regional share) to the "composite capacity and location factor"
were found. A relatively poor correlation with change in design capacity
was observed. A correlation with the reciprocal of the average distance of
vacant land to sewer service was also observed. In general, however, analyses
by watershed and by EMPIRIC district do not yield consistent results.
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111-06.
Milgram, Grace, The City Expands, Institute for Environmental Studies,
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, prepared for
the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, March 1967.
Summary
The City Expands presents results of an empirical study of the
rise in price of vacant land and its relationship to local factors. Time-
distance to the central business district, proximity to public transportation,
and availability of sewers were correlated with real estate values over an
18-year period (1945-1962) in a section of Philadelphia. Other factors,
such as degree of development of the vacant land, its potential uses, and
the type of buyer and seller also influenced prices.
Study Area and Investment
The area under study was the northeast sector of Philadelphia. It
contains 25,000 acres, 17,000 of which were vacant in 1945, the base year
of the study. By 1966, vacant land was essentially unavailable. Minor
improvements in transportation and major sewer extensions were made in the
study ar.ea during 1945-1962.
Exogenous Factors
The study cites several external forces at work that probably influenced
development patterns and land prices. Most important, perhaps, was the strong
growth pressure exerted on the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area following
World War II. Much of the development that resulted from this pressure was
channeled into the study area. Other potential external influences were large
institutional land owners that withheld sizeable parcels from developers, and
crucial zoning changes from low to high density residential use during the
study period.
Impacts
The empirical evaluation of the impacts of infrastructure investments
is limit'ed to changes in land prices. Travel times to the CBD were used to
reflect transportation improvements and access to trunk sewers to indicate
sewer investments. Travel times were inversely related to land price per
acre, with a 20 minute increase in travel time (25 to 45 minutes) showing
an average four-fold decrease in land values. Land with access to trunk
sewers was more than four times more costly, on the average, than land
without such access.
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The study showed that other factors, besides transportation and
sewers, were important in determining land prices. The potential use of
the land, as reflected in the size of the parcel transacted and its zoning,
was strongly related to price. In addition, the existing degree of develop-
ment of parcels, the type of owner and the type of buyer influenced land
prices.
All these factors were combined in multiple regression equations to
account for changes in land prices. The most accurate of these expressions
explained 68 percent of the variation in price for residential land and
78 percent for commercial and industrial land. Access to trunk sewers and
zoning for high intensity use were found to be the most important variables
in the equations for residential land.
Methodology
The study was based on price data estimated from tax assessor
records in time series from 1945-1962. The transactional history of each
parcel was traced until the parcel was developed. Simple correlations of
variables were established through standard statistical techniques, while
elementary linkage analysis was used to determine factors which were most
strongly related. Multiple regression equations were used to combine factors
in explaining land price variations.
Conclusions
The study concludes that while infrastructure investments influence
land prices and development, they cannot be used to control development.
Zoning, on the other hand, can be used to restrain and direct development,
but will encourage inflated prices if not adjusted to meet local market
conditions.
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III-10.
Stansbury, Jeffrey, "Suburban GrowthA Case Study," Population Bulletin,
Population Reference Bureau, April 1972.
Summary
This article analyzes the influence of interceptor sewers on develop-
ment in Fairfax County, Virginia, a southern suburb of Washington, B.C.
Several major extensions of sewers into undeveloped portions of the county
were followed by rapid, sprawl-type development. This in turn created
intense pressure on public services in the region and helped increase tax
burdens on existing residents. The study attributes these effects primarily
to the sewer extensions, but also notes that ineffectual land use controls
and growth-oriented county sewer authorities intensified the problems.
Although not empirically rigorous, the study strongly suggests a relation-
ship between sewers and development.
Study Area and Investment
Fairfax County, a southern component of Metropolitan Washington,
experienced nearly a five-fold increase in population (from less than 100,000
to nearly half a million) between 1950 and 1970. The immigrants were largely
accommodated in single-family houses priced between $30,000 to $40,000.
Because of demand for low-density development, the hilly nature of the area,
and the large reserves of undeveloped land, sprawl was dominant in the tidal
wave of development.
County officials welcomed growth. In particular, the county sewer
authorities took inflated population projections at face value and tried to
anticipate growth by extending interceptor sewers into completely undeveloped
portions of the county. The results, according to the study, were self-
fulfilling population prophecies, with the sewer extensions stimulating
enough residential development to achieve projected population levels. Land
use plans were never seriously considered as restraints or even guidelines in
locating new development.
Impacts
The study cites three specific secondary effects of interceptor sewers.
First is the location of new development, which, the study claims, almost
always occurred in new sewer service areas. Second is the intensity of develop-
ment. The study describes how developers built at densities determined by the
capacities of the new sewer lines. This had the additional effect of over-
loading treatment plants where the sewer capacities exceeded treatment plant
capacities. Finally, sewer extensions created intense pressures on public
services in the counties by stimulating sprawl development of new subdivisions.
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This pressure caused either a decrease in per capita services or an
increase of the tax rate.
The study suggests that sewer investments stimulate development
by "subsidizing" developers (free wastewater collection facilities) and
by generating financial pressures for further expansion. Sewer extensions
are major capital investments, paid by bond issues, which must be repaid
from hook-up, and service charge revenues of the sewer line. In order to
maintain an acceptable financial position, local authorities encourage
new, intense development in service areas through zoning variances and
informal agreements with developers. "Subsidy" and additional revenue
reinforce each other, according to the study, so that development is
almost inevitable.
In analyzing these events, the study acknowledges some purely
local factors that encouraged the pattern of development. The county
was under tremendous growth pressures from Washington, D. C., over which
it had no control. The soils of the county are unsuitable for septic
tanks; sewerage is a necessity for development. The county was financing
sewers largely without federal assistance, which increased its indebtedness
substantially. Finally, land use plans and controls in Fairfax County were
ineffectual, partially because of unfavorable court decisions.
Conclusions
The major conclusion of the study is that "once trunk sewers have
been laid down, subdivisions follow as mindlessly as mice after the Pied
Piper." The particular complex of local conditions, including growth
pressure from Washington, D. C., soil characteristics, and investment
policies carried out during the study period, combined to make interceptor
sewers a primary determinant of the location and intensity of new develop-
ment. The study suggests that at the most basic level, developmental
problems derive from the "growth is good" outlook of local government which
considers all growth even unstructured sprawl as beneficial.
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IV. MODELING TECHNIQUES
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IV-06.
Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, Jobs, People and Land: Bay Area
Simulation Study (BASS), Special Report No. 6, Institute of Urban and
Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley, 1968.
Summary
BASS is designed to measure the impact of a range of assumptions on
land utilization in the multi-county San Francisco Bay Area. Residential
and industrial location submodels allocate to regional subdivisions popula-
tion and employment totals generated by regional growth submodels. Residential
location is assumed to be entirely dependent upon accessibility to employment.
Allocations of industrial changes, however, employ a variety of location
criteria. Notable among the industrial allocation functions is the allocation
of discrete facilities of manufacturing. Geographic subareas must first meet
"essential" conditions for a given industry before they are evaluated relative
to other candidate subareas.
Model Structure
BASS is composed of four submodels, two of which project employment
and population totals for the region. Two others distribute these activities
throughout the region.
Future regional employment of twenty-one classes of industry is forecasted
in two ways. Past trends are extrapolated in one forecast; another set of
projections is based upon various regional, state, and national variables.
Either set of results can be used, or the two reconciled.
Birth and death rates are projected to obtain a first pass at future
population. Externally forecasted labor force participation rates are then
applied and the resultant labor force compared to the employment projection.
Migration is then inferred from the difference, and the population adjusted
accordingly.
The two remaining submodels distribute employment and population by
regional subdivision. Employment in primary industries (e.g., agriculture,
mining) is allocated using trend extrapolation. Construction employment is
allocated in proportion to new housing and new employment in each zone.
Relative attractiveness indices are computed for locating retail employment,.
These indices combine market potentials (generated by a gravity model) with
measures of commercial site suitability. Suitability is calculated using
regression analysis to calibrate weightings of factors such as density of
development, accessibilities to employment and population (from matrices
of inter-zonal travel times), and employment in certain other industries.
Allocation of manufacturing employment increases is a two-step process.
Regional subdivisions are first examined for "essential factors" for each
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industry. Zones that pass this initial screening, are assigned attractive-
ness scores according to weightings of a variety of characteristics, includ-
ing levels of employment, accessibilities, and land availability. The zone
with the highest score receives an employment increase equal to the average
size of the relevant manufacturing facility. This process continues until
the entire regional increase has been allocated. Manufacturing declines,
on the other hand, are allocated among zones according to the percentage of
the relevant industry in the zone.
Population is allocated in proportion to each zone's accessibility to
employment. Residential distribution is defined in terms of location of
housing demand, with demand disaggregated into six classes. Each of two
types of housing units (single- and multiple-family dwellings) is further
subdivided into three value classes (high-, medium-, and low-income). Housing
demolitions are forecasted exogenously. Constant proportions among value
classes of housing are specified, and construction and filtering are formulated
to maintain specified proportions.
Theories and Assumptions
In forecasting regional totals, it is assumed that migration is solely
dependent upon the difference in natural population increase and "required"
labor force. There is, therefore, no interplay between migration and employ-
ment. It is assumed, instead, that largely undefined regional forces that
have operated in the past will continue to operate in determining future
employment.
There is no competition among industry for sites in allocating manu-
facturing. "Clumps" of employment are allocated sequentially. It is assumed
that manufacturing increases occur primarily in the form of discrete facilities.
The allocation of housing demands to zones assumes no effect of the
supply of housing on those demands. BASS assumes accessibility to employment
to be the primary location criterion for households.
Purpose and Applicability
The BASS model was designed to measure the impact [on land absorption
or land use] of changing assumptions with respect to employment, incomes,
household travel and spending behavior; public and private investments; and
other variables affecting land absorption and utilization. A number of ver-
sions of the BASS model have been applied to the San Francisco Bay Area.
PLUM (Projective Land Use Model) is a direct spin-off of the BASS modeling
effort.
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IV-07.
Chapin, F. Jr., "A Model for Simulating Residential Development," Journal
of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, May 1965,
pp. 120-125.
Summary
This formulation, commonly known as the University of North Carolina
(TJNC) model, addresses land conversion from open space to residential use.
The model operates recursively over time, probabilistically allocating
households to sub-areas according to measures of relative attractiveness,
includingaccessibility.
Model Structure
The study area is divided into a grid with each cell first classified
according to its availability for residential development. A cell may be
unavailable because of previous development, plans for non-residential use,
or plans to preserve open space. The remaining cells are assigned attractive-
ness scores by a linear combination (calibrated by regression analysis) of
initial assessed value, accessibility to work areas, availability of public
sewers, and accessibility to schools and major streets. The probability of
residential development is taken to be proportional to the attractiveness
of each cell.
As the model operates over time, components of each attractiveness
score are revalued for each time period. Units of development are allocated
sequentially to cells within each time period.
Theories and Assumptions
The formulation assumes that development is constrained by demand for
residences, that is, there is no speculative housing construction. Develop-
ment is represented as a sequential process without competition for sites and,
consequently, no effect of supply on demand through a pricing mechanism.
A subsequent version of the model disaggregates population, but main-
tains the assumption that all population groups have the same locational
criteria. The location of each group, however, is limited to a specific
subset of cells.
Purpose and Applicability
The UNC model addresses land use succession, but is applicable only to
new residential development. Within that context, land use regulations and
alternative development plans can be tested for their effect on residential
development.
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IV-08.
CONSAD Research Corporation, Impact Studies; Northeast Corridor Transportation
Project, Volumes I, II, III, IV, Prepared for Northeast Corridor Transporta-
tion Project, Office of High-Speed Ground Transportation, U.S. Department
of Transportation, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970.
Summary
The Northeast Corridor Transportation Project (NECTP) model was designed
to forecast the impact of various transportation systems in the Northeast
Corridor of the United States on population, economic activity, income, and
land use. The model emphasizes the concept of "comparative advantage" of
alternative locations in determining geographic distribution of activities.
A non-spatial model of economic activity (ECON) provides inputs to an intra-
regional location model (INTRA). Regression analysis is used to calibrate
econometric equations in both models.
Model Structure
At the highest level of geographic aggregation is an econometric model
(ECON) that projects demand for industrial output and labor for nine industrial
sectors in the Corridor. The intraregional location model (INTRA) allocates
employment (by sector), population, income, and land use (residential, commercial,
industrial) by geographic location. An interregional input-output model (IRIO),
part of the original NECTP formulation, was subsequently deleted.
INTRA, a set of highly interrelated components, produces a time-stepping
simulation. Changes in employment distribution are based upon counties'
relative advantages in procurement, processing, and distribution. Procurement
advantages are dependent upon accessibility to inputs required by each industry.
Processing advantages are determined by relative costs of production factors,
particularly land and labor. Distributional advantages depend on the market
potential (for final products or intermediate goods) of an area and on
accessibility to the area market.
Births, deaths, and migration determine county population levels.
Births and deaths are formulated as dependent upon population densities and
income levels. Migration is generated by feedback from county unemployment,
accessibility to employment, and wages. Wage and property incomes, the primary
components of personal income, depend on factors such as unemployment and
density of land use, which represent supply-demand interactions in the markets
for labor and land, respectively.
In forecasting land use, a simple relation to accessibility and density
was used after attempts to calibrate more complex equations failed.
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Theories and Assumptions
Two major concepts shaped the NECTP work. The first is the use of a
comparative advantage framework. Location decisions are based not only upon
absolute values of determinant factors, but also upon the relative advantages
offered by different locations.
The second principle is the large amount of interdependence between
the components of the system. Evolution of the original INTRA Model to the
stage reported here was based on an explicit recognition of feedback between
population, employment and personal income.
Purpose and Applicability
The NECTP modeling effort was designed to provide forecasts of impacts
of various transportation systems in the Northeast Corridor on geographically-
disaggregated levels of population, industry, personal income, and land use.
As of the last cited reference (1970), the model was not considered
directly usable as a practical tool for forecasting.
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IV-12.
Engle, Robert F. Ill, Franklin M. Fisher, John R. Harris, and Jerome Rotheriberg,
"An Econometric Simulation Model of Intra-Metropolitan Housing Location:
Housing, Business, Transportation, and Local Government," American Economic
Review, Volume LXII, Number 2, May 1972, pp. 87-97.
Summary
The system of models proposed by the authors is intended ±o permit the
evaluation of policy alternatives at different governmental levels with respect
to the development of Boston. A set of models is outlined that would provide
regional forecasts of activities and of their distribution within the region.
The intraregional location model addresses dynamic market processes involving
durable housing structures. The colocation of housing with other zonal
attributes is an important consideration in location decisions. Two other
modelsthe macroeconomic and long-term adjustment modelsprovide population,
employment, and income as inputs to the allocation model.
Model Structure
A three-model system is proposed: a macroeconomic model (non-spatial)
of output, employment, and income; a model of long-term adjustments in popula-
tion and .capital stocks; and a model of spatial allocation of social and economic
activities. The models are structured in a feedback system, as illustrated below.
Economic Activity
Population,Investment
\ ADJUSTMENT
Housing and
Land Prices,
Tax Rates
^Population, Employment, Stocks, Income/
Tax Rates,
I Housing Costs
- { SPATIAL ALLOCATION \
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The macroeconomic model sets forth a series of relationships, which
are identified below.
income = f (value added in eight groups of industries)
industry's value added = f (other industries, commodity
prices, income)
manufacturing employment demand = f (value added in manufactur-
ing, capital investment,
productivity)
other industries' employment demand = f (value added, wages,
productivity)
labor force participation = f (population, age, sex, race,
wages, prices)
wages = f (unemployment, prices, technology)
prices = f (housing costs, costs of services, commodity prices)
housing costs = f (land and structure prices)
costs of services = f (wages)
commodity prices = f (unemployment, national commodity prices)
The output provided by this model is in terms of value added and employ-
ment (by industry), income, and income distribution.
The long-term adjustments model provides changes in population (through
migration and natural increase) and capital investments. Both migration and
investments are affected by wages, prices, and unemployment relative to the
U.S. as a whole. In addition, investments are affected by regional manufactur-
ing value added and interest rates.
In the spatial allocation model, the Boston region is divided into zones
of geopolitical units (e.g., towns or counties). Industrial land users are
broken down according to the disaggregation employed in the macroeconomic
model (eight types). Households choose between three levels of quality for
housing. Given land use and zonal preferences, each industrial and household
group evaluates zones for characteristics such as housing, taxes, public
expenditures, and accessibility. Housing supply is governed by decisions
based upon the profitability of construction or conversion.
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Theories and Assumptions
A geographical hierarchy is established in the model in which people
and industry make location and investment decisions first at the regional
level, and then make intraregional location decisions on separate grounds.
The focal point of this model system is spatial allocation.
The allocation model is based on location of zonal attributes. This
approach recognizes the fact that different attributes of a zone, such as
public services and accessibility, must be evaluated by potential residents
as an indivisible "bundle."
Housing is treated as a durable, with the major portion of the stock
resulting not from (instantaneous) new construction, but from previously
standing stock. The interaction of supply and demand in housing submarkets
is the primary determinant of adjustments to the standing stock.
The dynamic structure of the model allows explicit treatment of market
processes involving land, housing, and labor.
Purpose and Applicability
The stated purpose of the full model is to permit systematic evaluation
of a very wide range of policy alternatives considered at national, state,
metropolitan, or local jurisdictional levels.
As this model has yet to be completed, it is difficult to determine the
ease with which the final product will be applicable. Some equations have
been estimated, but most of the formulation is still at the conceptual stage.
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IV-14.
Forrester, Jay W., Urban Dynamics, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
1969.
Summary
A dynamic simulation model is presented for potential application to
analysis of the effects of public policies on the development of cities.
The model emphasizes interdependence among components of the system and
feedback. Particularly notable is the formulation of changes in relative
"attractiveness" of an area as the result of decisions based upon past
attractiveness.
Major components of the system are population, industry, land availa-
bility, housing, and taxing policies. The overall behavior of a hypothetical
city is characterized by stages of growth, stagnation, and eventual decay.
Governmental policies, including job training and slum demolition, are
tested with the model.
Model Structure
The most distinctive features of the Urban Dynamics Model are the
predominance of feedback loops and the causal relationships between major
variables. Industries are divided into three groups by age, housing into
three classes by value, and population into three skill levels. There is
no geographic disaggregation.
The city's population is determined by birth, death, and migration
rates. Migration is a function of the attractiveness of the city relative
to all other areas. The city's attractiveness depends on job and housing
availability, public expenditures, and taxes.
The relative attractiveness principle is also applied to industrial
growth. Industrial attractiveness depends upon labor and land availability,
tax rates, and recent industrial growth.
The housing stock is generated by construction, changed by filtering,
and severed by demolition. Construction depends on demand for each class of
housing, land availability, speculation, and tax rates. Filtering of housing
to a lower value class occurs in times of adequate supply in a higher class.
Demolition occurs as land is needed.
Theories and Assumptions
Two major theories permeate the formulation: the attractiveness
principle and feedback relations. The attractiveness principle assumes that
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the relative advantages and disadvantages of areas tend to become equalized
as people and industries respond to a previous disparity in conditions.
For example, migration from one area to another affects both areas by
increasing the lower attractiveness of the former and decreasing the higher
attractiveness of the latter.
The second theory that shapes the model is that feedback among the
variables governs system behavior (growth of the city).
An explicit assumption of the model is that the city is a "closed"
system; that is, its behavior is primarily determined by causal forces internal
to the system. Thus, it is assumed that people who work within the city also
live there; and that public services are supported uniformly throughout the
area by taxation of residents. External factors may affect specific values
of variables, but the basic modes of behavior (growth, stagnation, and decay)
remain unchanged. Much of the criticism of the model has been aimed at this
point. The relatively narrow geographic boundaries of the model preclude
any explicit interaction between the city and surrounding areas. Forrester's
assumption of a self-enclosed urban system of jobs and people is questionable
given the accessibility afforded by modern transportation technology.
Purpose and Applicability
The model is presented as an example of a methodology which could
eventually provide the capability for comprehensive analysis of the effects
of various public policies. Such policies include taxation, housing programs,
and job training. The model in its present form treats only in a gross manner
the effects of transportation investments and zoning policies, since there
is no areal breakdown.
The formulation, essentially unchanged in scope and content, is
currently being tested for validity and projective capability in an applica-
tion to Lowell, Massachusetts. Research into varying postulated relations,
expanding the geographic boundaries, and changing the component variables of
the model has been conducted by many, among them Hester, Kadanoff, and Garn.
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IV-21.
Hamilton, H. R., S. E. Goldstone, J. W. Milliman, A. L. Pugh III,
E. B. Roberts, A. Zellner, Systems Simulation for Regional Analysis:
An Application to River-Basin Planning, The M.I.T. .Press, Cambridge,
Massachusetts, 1969.
Summary
A regional simulation model designed to analyze the economy of
the Susquehanna River Basin treats dynamically a number of interrelated
regional factors. The model is composed of a series of "subregional"
models, each of which consists of highly interdependent economic and
demographic sectors. A sector of upstream-downstream water quality
and quantity provides the only link among subregional models.
Model Structure
Each subregion includes several counties. The subregional models'
were formulated, therefore, as essentially independent of each other with
respect to labor force/employment interactions. Only the effects of water
quality and quantity in different sections of the river basin are regional.
Population is disaggregated into age groups homogeneous with respect
to migration, labor force participation, birth, and death rates. Industries
are divided into export and local industries. Local industries are further
broken down into household- and business-serving. Export industries are
disaggregated into groups according to the significance of the following
costs in the operations of each: labor; transportation of products to
markets; and transportation of raw materials to processors.
Population growth in each age class depends on births, aging, deaths,
and migration. Birth and migration rates are affected by subregional
unemployment. Labor force participation also depends on unemployment (the
discouraged-worker effect). A cumulative measure of skills is computed.for
each subregion, reflecting a greater tendency to migrate among more highly-
skilled people.
Transportation costs are specified exogenously for the model. Labor
costs (wages) depend on unemployment (as an indicator of the labor market)
and the mix of industries. Required transportation and labor expenditures
constitute the subregional attractiveness measure for export industry groups.
The level of household-serving industries is derived from subregional popula-
tion, while business-serving employment depends on the levels of all other
industries.
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Theories and Assumptions
The formulation was based on the theory that many dynamic inter-
dependencies exist between a large number of economic and demographic
components of a regional system. Emphasis was placed on developing
classes of population and industry which react similarly to the same set
of conditions.
Purpose and Applicability
The model was constructed in order to analyze the economy of the
Susquehanna River Basin and to define the role of water resources in its
future development.
Potential applications include the analysis of the effects of various
types of public investments, such as in transportation or education. Many
other applications are suggested by the authors, each of which would require
some refinement or expansion of an appropriate portion of the model. Examples
include: expansion of the labor market formulation to analyze manpower
programs; consideration of resource problems other than water, such as
forests, land, minerals; and inclusion of a government sector to study state
and local taxation and fiscal policies.
The Susquehanna work has, in fact, spawned further modeling efforts.
The water sector was reformulated in RIVERZ, an application to the Grand
River Basin; was directly adapted to an analysis of the St. Louis area;
and a similar model, with population further disaggregated by occupation,
was used in an analysis of Kent County, Michigan.
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IV-23.
Hill, Donald M., "A Growth Allocation Model for the Boston "Region,"
Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Special Issue,
Volume XXXI, Number 2, pp. 111-120, May 1965.
Summary
The EMPIRIC Land Use Model for the Greater Boston Region is
described and initial calibration results are summarized. The model
allocat'es growth of white- and blue-collar population groups, retail
and wholesale, manufacturing, and other employment by subzone within
the region. "Locator variables" are intensity of land use, zoning
practices, automobile and transit accessibilities, and quality of water
service and sewer service.
Future growth in each subregion is projected in short steps, with
each step depending upon the results of previous steps. The development of
each activity in each subregion influences future development by way of
competition for land and changed accessibilities. The initial analysis
used for establishing the parameters for the model is based on multiple
correlation, and shows extremely close correspondence between estimates
generated by the model and historical events. When the model is used as
a projection device, current trends do not continue, but are changed by
later events.
Model Structure
The model assumes that location of population, employment, and other
activities are interrelated in a systematic fashion. Interrelationships of
activities are assumed to be additive and are incorporated in the model in a
linear form.
Population and employment 'activities ("located variables") are fore-
casted for each subregion at the end of a given forecast period; the location
and intensity of these variables are determined by the presence, absence, or
ease of access to other influencing activities ("locator variables"). The
change in the subregional share of each located variable in a subregion is
taken to be proportional, to: (1) the change in the subregional share of all
other located variables in the subregion; (2) the change in the subregional
share of a number of locator variables in the subregion; and (3) the value
of the subregional shares of other locator variables. The proportionality
constants are determined by simultaneous regression analysis of data taken
at two past points in time. Each located variable is thus calculable from
a linear equation with fixed coefficients.
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Future subregional values of each located variable are calculated
by substituting in each equation the pertinent values of the locator
variables for the subregion and solving the equations simultaneously for
the subregional located variables. To obtain forecasts in absolute values,
subregional shares at the end of the forecast interval are multiplied by
externally forecast figures for the total change in the located variable
for the whole region.
Study Area and Methodology
The Greater Boston Region, consisting of 152 cities and towns, an
area of 2,300 square miles, and a population of 3,400,000, was divided into
subregions for model validation testing. Initially, 29 subregions were
used and three sets of locator variables were tested over the period 1950
to 1960. The first test used 1950 data on location and density of population
and employment, and 1950-60 data on changes in land use density, zoning
practices, and highway and mass transportation systems. The second test
deleted transit accessibility as an input variable; the third test added
water supply and sewer service as input variables, and retained transit
accessibility.
Each of these sets was then tested for varying time periods (5 or
10 years). The third set of input variables was tested for varying forecast
periods (10, 20, or 40 years); the second set of input variables was tested
by varying the number of subregions.
Three indices were used to measure aggregate correspondence between
observed and predicted values: the Root Mean Square Error (RMS); the RMS
Error Ratio; and the Coefficient of Determination (R^).
Results and Conclusions
Model calibrations, using 29 subregions and forecasting historical
growth from 1950 to 1960, showed a close correspondence with actual growth
figures. The first formulation (including zoning, land use, automobile and
transit accessibilities as locator variables) predicted both growth and
decline in the region, including a loss of approximately 100,000 people and
30,000 jobs in the City of Boston. The RMS error measure was 3,439 people
(total population) and 1,512 jobs (total employment). RMS error ratios
were .03 for both totals.
The second model formulation (transit accessibilities not included
as locator variables) resulted in RMS error ratios of .07 for population
and .08 for employment. The third formulation (including water supply and
sewer service) resulted in RMS error ratios of .01 for population, and .03
for employment.
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Each of the above formulations was tested over shorter historical
time periods (1950-1955). The first and third set formulations showed
decreased accuracy for the five vs. ten year periods; the second formula-
tion (not including transit or water supply and sewer services) increased
in accuracy (the RMS error ratio for population decreased from .07 to .03).
This latter calibration was then used recursively and non-recursively for
forecasts over a series of time periods (1960-70, 1960-80, 1960-2000).
Single projections tended to show curvilinear trends, while recursive
projections diverged from this trend. Generally, recursive techniques are
assumed to be more sensitive to policy changes, and thus, more accurate.
The third formulation (including all locator variables) was tested
using 123 and 134 subregions. Accuracy was less than with the original
29 subregions.
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IV-27.
Kain, John F., "The Journey-To-Work as a Determinant of Residential Location,"
Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Volume 9,
pp. 137-160, 1962.
Summary
The model is an attempt to explain residential distribution by a
theory of household location based on journey-to-work travel. Households are
assumed to minimize total costs, consisting primarily of the cost of transpor-
tation, which is assumed to increase with the distance to the workplace, and
the unit cost of residential space, which is assumed to decrease with distance
to the workplace. The expected static equilibrium solution is in good agree-
ment with data on the distribution of households across a series of concentric
zones in Detroit, Michigan.
Model Structure
The equilibrium model proposed by Kain provides a distribution of
households over concentric zones in a metropolitan area. The basis of the
model is an algorithm that minimizes total household costs, composed of
journey-to-work costs and location rents. The quantity of land desired by
households is determined from household characteristics, such as income, race,
and family size. The minimum cost location of the corresponding amount and
type of land is defined by cost functions represented in the following diagram.
Dollars
minimum total
cost
total costs
cost of transportation
(direct plus time
value)
cost of space
desired
optimum location
for household
Distance from Employment Center
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The distance from the CBD at which total costs are at a minimum
determines the concentric ring in which the household locates.
Theories and Assumptions
Transportation costs are derived from a series of assumptions.
Transportation expenditures are assumed to be composed of three components,
each consisting of direct travel costs and dollar valuations of time. The
three primary components are: (1) costs which vary according to distance to
the workplace; (2) expenditures for services obtainable in the residential
area; and (3) costs which vary with the residence's distance to points outside
the residential area. Of these, (2) is assumed to be invariant over all
residential zones in the region, and (3) is assumed to be trivial. The
remaining factor, the journey-to-work, defines, therefore, transportation
costs for most households.
In treating the market for residential space it is assumed that the
price per unit of a given quality of land decreases with distance to workplace.
Workplaces are assumed fixed and predetermined for each household. Given a
density preference, households are assumed to maximize utility by minimizing
costs.
Finally, it is assumed that other variables such as the quality of
housing and of local government services are derived from demand, and are
not determinants of residential location.
Purpose and Applicability
The model, as presented in Kain's paper, advances a theory of locational
criteria to explain existing residential distribution. Data on Detroit
households were examined and found to be consistent with the theory. The
theory can be incorporated in a projective model, as was done in the NBER
Simulation, which included other locational criteria, relaxed the monocentric
assumption, and provided a dynamic formulation.
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IV-28.
Kain, John F. and Gregory K. Ingram, The NBER Urban Simulation Model
as a Theory of Urban Spatial Structure, Preliminary Draft, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., October 1972.
Summary
Urban area housing markets are modeled by simulating the interaction
of housing supply and demand. Kain's journey-to-work theory is incorporated
in the dynamic simulation model. Housing and neighborhood characteristics
are additional location criteria. A linear program minimizes total travel
costs to obtain the distribution of residential demand. Supplies of
housing are governed by the profitability to landowners and developers
of construction, filtering, and transformation.
Model Structure
The NBER model is a dynamic simulation of urban housing markets.
Exogenous employment changes generate households, some of which move in a
given time period. Each household type has a preference for a housing
"bundle" consisting of attributes of the structure and the neighborhood.
Bundle prices are composed of housing prices, travel time and its valuation,
and direct travel costs. Travel costs are based upon the distance to work
and the available travel modes. A linear program minimizes total travel
costs to obtain residential distribution given bundle preferences and bundle
prices throughout a region.
Supplies of different types of housing in different locations depend
upon construction, filtering, and transformation. For each housing bundle,
the profitability of building new units and of maintaining or transforming
existing units is evaluated. The costs of each such operation are exter-
nally specified. Expected income from properties is determined by prices
in the appropriate housing submarkets. Subsequent supplies of housing
bundles are determined, therefore, by the economic feasibility of construc-
tion, maintenance, and transformation. The difference between supply and
demand in each housing submarket determines housing bundle price changes.
Theories and Assumptions
Kain's original journey-to-work theory is reflected in the NBER model.
The original assumptions of a monocentric city and an equilibrium solution
are abandoned in favor of multiple workplaces and a dynamic interplay of
supply and demand in housing submarkets. In addition, housing and neighbor-
hood characteristics are explicitly represented as determinants of location.
The household's preference for "bundles" is a function of the social and
economic characteristics of the household.
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Purpose and Applicability
The model is presently designed to simulate urban area housing
markets, but extensions to the model are planned. These include endogenous
formulations of non-residential land use, population-serving employment,
and neighborhood attributes.
The impacts of housing programs can be addressed by the model as
presently reported. The effects of discrimination, varying local public
services, and land use policies can be addressed more extensively after
the planned expansion of the model.
Experience with the Detroit prototype model pointed out serious
calibration problems. Using Pittsburgh data, there was some improvement,
but difficulties remained in specifying the crucial equations for housing
bundle demands, particularly with respect to the effect of the quality of
local public services on bundle preferences.
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IV-29.
Kaiser, Edward J. , A Producer Model for Residential Growth, Center for
Urban and Regional Studies, Institute for Research in Social Science,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C., November 1968.
Summary
A producer oriented model based on discriminant functions is
formulated from empirical results obtained for two North Carolina cities.
A linear combination of four predictor variables (socio-economic rank,
distance to nearest elementary school, index of accessibility to employment
areas, and availability of public utilities and services) was used to
calculate probabilities .of single family, subdivision development. The
equation, calibrated from historical data, predicts development with an
accuracy of only 52% for small-developer subdivisions, but with 92% accuracy
for large-developer subdivisions (random choice is 50%).
I. Empirical Studies
Study Area and Investment
Single family subdivision development is examined in Greensboro and
Winston-Salem, two medium-sized cities (approximately 120,000 population),
during 1958-1963.
Methodology
A circular area, about seven miles in radius and centered on the
high value corner of the Central Business District (CBD), was divided in
about 4,000 cells by a square grid 1,000 feet on each side (each cell was
about 23 acres). Subsamples of about 500 cells were selected from each set.
In the case of Greensboro, subsamples over two periods (1958-61 and 1961-63)
were used; data for Winston-Salem covered 1961-63. Ten independent variables
(proportion of marginal land, poor soil, socio-economic rank, distance to
nearest major street, distance to nearest elementary school, accessibility
to employment areas, distance to the CBD, contiguous residential development,
availability of public utilities and services, and zoning protection) were
examined using Kendall's tau(c) as a univariate index of order-association
between site characteristics and subdivision type. A stepwise discriminant
computer program was used in multivariate analysis.
Intervening variables included market type (subdivision in low or
high price range), developer type (small or large developer), and contextual
factors (macro-environmental setting of each city).
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Discriminant analysis was used to classify each observation into
subdivided or unsubdivided groups; comparison to actual observations
yielded percent of correct classification. Probabilities of subdivision
were calculated from values of predictor variables in a given period and
calibration data obtained for an immediately preceding period. Comparison
to actual occurrence of subdivision yielded percent of correctly classified
(predicted) outcomes.
Results
Univariate analyses show that socio-economic rank is the single most
important variable determining subdivision development. Distance to nearest
major street, amount of contiguous residential development, availability of
public utilities, and zoning protection were also statistically significant.
Statistical analysis also showed that the locational decisions
of large developers are different from those of small developers: the former
are more strongly related to site characteristics, particularly to socio-
economic rank, availability of public utilities and zoning protection.
Multivariate analyses generally support the results of univariate
tests.
II. A Producer Oriented Model
Model Structure
Probabilities of residential (single family) development for cells
about 23 acres in area are obtained from discriminant functions consisting
of a linear combination of four predictor variables (socio-economic rank,
distance to nearest elementary school, accessibility to employment areas,
and availability of public utilities and services). The equations are
calibrated for one 3-year period and used to predict development during a
subsequent 3-year period.
Theories and Assumptions
The model is based on empirical findings showing that locational and
institutional (but not physical) site characteristics are statistically
significant at the .01 level or better for single family subdivision develop-
ment. Developer type (size) and price are also significant.
Applications
The model can be used to forecast locational tendencies of residential
subdivision development given alternative public policies on spatial distri-
bution of water and sewerage systems, schools, segments of the transportation
network, and zoning districts.
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Limitations
Since the model was derived from empirical findings in only two
geographic areas, it is somewhat inconsistent with expected associations
and with some results in the literature.
The model is a partial one, biased to the developer's point of view,
and treats only spatial distribution (and not amount) of only one sector
of the residential market (new, single family subdivision development).
It is not an all nation model and it cannot be used recursively over time.
It cannot forecast over a substantial length of time. Finally, since
contextual factors are significant, the model must be calibrated separately
for each urban area.
161
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IV-32.
Lakshmanan, T. R. and W. G. Hansen, "A Retail Market Potential Model,"
Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Volume XXXI, Number 2,
pp. 134-143, May 1965.
Summary
A gravity model was developed to examine economic feasibility
of large commercial centers in Baltimore by determining potential markets
in the metropolitan region. Possible sites, selected on general planning
grounds, are tested by volume of business attracted in relation to center
size. It is shown that a balanced distribution exists which depends on the
distribution of purchasing power predicted for the region and the available
transportation facilities. The balanced distribution minimizes costs for
trip-makers.
Model Structure
The sales potential of a retail center is taken to be directly
related to its size, to its proximity to consumers, and to the income
levels of potential consumers. The sales potential is also related to the
center's location vis a vis other competing facilities. Mathematically,
these relations are expressed as direct proportionalities of sales to size
and consumer expenditures and inverse proportionalities to distance to
consumers and to size and location of competition.
A key variable of the model is the consumer-retailer interactive
space, defined operationally by the driving time between the consumer's
zone and the retailer's zone on the highway network.
Theories and Assumptions
The gravity or "intervening opportunities" formulation was selected
to represent the theory that the market area for a retail center is not an
"arbitrary spatial slice of the region," but extends throughout the entire
region. The greater the distance to the consumer and the larger the
competition, the less business a given retail center will receive from
the corresponding portions of the market area.
Projections with the model assume that implicit factors, such as
public policies and consumers' locational and spending patterns, will
remain the same.
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Purpose and Applicability
While it is not specifically intended as a protective tool, the
model can be calibrated to incorporate external projections affecting
future market potentials. Such a formulation may be incorporated in a
more comprehensive regional model, or stand alone and employ judgementally
derived projections.
163
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IV-35.
Lowry, Ira A., A Model of Metropolis, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica,
California, 1964.
Summary
The Lowry model, widely known for its simple and logical causal
structure, was, in its original formulation, an attempt to determine the
equilibrium distribution of households and retail activity. An iterative
computational sequence is used which converges to a balance between places
of employment and residences.
Model Structure
The iterative sequence employed in the Lowry model is illustrated
below.
Base Employment
Location
» Household Location
f 4
^ Retail Location
Industrial Land
Use
Residential Land Use
Retail Land Use
The location of base industry is specified exogenously. Households
are allocated to zones in proportion to each zone's accessibility to employ-
ment locations (only base employment in the first iteration). Retail activity
(employment) location is then dependent upon accessibility to industry and
households, subject only to the constraint of a minimum amount of retail
employment which must be generated for a zone before retail industry can
locate in that zone (reflecting economies of scale). Retail industry adds
to employment opportunities; residential distribution (according to employ-
ment accessibility) is redefined accordingly, which further alters retail
location, etc.
A conversion factor for each activity determines land use in each zone.
Base industry has first priority in land use, followed by retail industry and
then households. A maximum density constraint is imposed upon residential
land use.
Three types of retail activity, differentiated by size of the market
each serves (neighborhood, local, metropolitan) are located with the model.
Base industry and households are not disaggregated.
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Theories and Assumptions
A basic/retail division is adopted for differentiating industries in
terms of land requirements and dependence upon residential distribution. In
expressing the interdependence of activities' locations according to
accessibility, straight-line distance from zone center to zone center is
used as the accessibility measure.
A number of assumptions govern land use specifically. Higher-intensity
uses (base and retail industry) have priority in each zone. Residential
density may not exceed a maximum for any given zone, while retail industry
may use up all available land and continue to increase (presumably by more
intense use of existing facilities or by multi-story facilities).
Purpose and Applicability
The Lowry model provides an equilibrium distribution of land-using
activities, thereby ignoring issues of land use succession. The effects
of different assumptions regarding base industry location and zoning may be
tested with the formulation. Effects of transportation investments cannot
be examined as such, since interzonal air distances are used in measuring
accessibility.
In its initial form, the model had relatively few data requirements.
It was applied widely and generally successfully. Revisions of the model
have added to the original conceptual formulation. The Time-Oriented
Metropolitan Model (TOMM) disaggregates population by income and changes
the model to a dynamic simulation. Other efforts inspired by the Lowry
model are the Bay Area Simulation Study (BASS) and the Protective Land
Use Model (PLUM) .
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SECTION 3
ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY
166
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-01. Allen, J. K., and R. McElvea, Impact of Improved Highways on the Economy of
the United States, Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California,
September 1958.
A comprehensive analysis of the impact of improved highways on the general
economy of the United States. Economic groups benefiting directly and in-
directly from improvements are described; and indirect benefits are examined
in terms of land use,' land value, site preferences, business and industrial
opportunities, employment, national defense needs, and governmental services.
A-02. Arkansas Highway Department, U.S. 70 Bypass - Glenwood: An Economic Impact Study.
prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, 1967.
A before-and-after study of impacts of a bypass highway on the town of
Glenwood, Arkansas. The study concludes that overall effects are beneficial
as evidenced by increases in retail trade; improved industrial transportation
services; reduced traffic congestion; and increased land use and value.
A-03. Bardwell, G. E., and Merry, P. R., "Measuring the Economic Impact of a Limited
Access Highway on Communities, Land Use and Land Value," Highway Research Board,
Bulletin 268, pp. 37-73, 1960.
An analysis of the economic impact, based on sales tax data by type of
business from 1946 to 1957, of highway bypasses around seven small Colorado
towns. Also included is a discussion of the effects of highway improvements
on rural land use and' land value along U.S. 87, based on the sale of land
parcels during the same period. Land sales are classified by use, location,
size of parcel and price.
A-04. Bleile, G. W., and Moses, L., "Transportation and the Spatial Distribution of
Economic Activity," Highway Research Board, Bulletin 311, pp. 27-30, 1962.
An examination of the overall pattern of locational change of manufacturing
firms in the Chicago metropolitan area. Industrial relocation, expansion,
and new location in this area from 1950 to 1960 are treated in terms of
distance from the central business district (inner city, city fringe, and
suburban areas). Forces affecting relocation decisions of firms are dis-
cussed and hypotheses of locational change are tested.
A-05. Bone, Alexander J., Economic Impact of Massachusetts Route 128, M.I.T. Transportation
Engineering Division, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1958.
An investigation of land use changes (industrial and residential) along the
circumferential highway built during 1933-1951 and an evaluation of the
impact of these changes on the Boston metropolitan area as a whole.
167
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A-05. (Continued)
Route 128 encouraged Boston area companies to relocate in newly accessible
suburban locations. About three-quarters of Route 128 companies relocated
from the Boston metropolitan area. Thus, in examining net changes in
industrial development, it is estimated that the area gained as a whole,
but the central city suffered a net loss. Residential development (number
of units, density, and land values) in two towns near the highway was
significantly higher than in control areas.
A-06. Bowersox, D. J. , "Influence of Highways on Selection of Six Industrial Locations,"
Highway Research Board. Bulletin 268, pp. 13-28, 1960.
An examination of the influence of highways on industrial location. Plant
location procedures used by six Michigan industrial firms in 1957 and 1958
are studied and general trends in the use of highways by industry, as well as
specific considerations in plant location (e.g., access to markets and space
availability) are discussed. The surveyed firms considered highway facilities
Important but not critical in their decision-making. Several examples of
significant industrial development after highway construction are noted
(e.g., Route 128 and the New York Thruway) and their empirical case studies
presented.
A-07. Britt, Robert D. , "Promises and Accomplishments: The Appalachian Regional
Development Program," Growth and Change: A Journal of Regional Development,
Vol. 2, pp. 3-13, July 1971.
An fix*'"'lri3ttf>n of the goals of tki 1965 Appalachian Regional Dsvolopniar.t Act
and progress through 1970. The role of highways in the program is discussed
in relation to the area's problems of economic depression, out-migration, low
education levels, health and child development, housing, and resource and
environmental projects. Highway expenditures accounted for 76% of initial
authorized funds; 12% of the highway system was completed in 1970.
A-08. Buffington, J. L. , A Study of Economic Impact of Interstate 45 on Huntsville,
Texas, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas Highway Department, August 1966.
A study conducted in 1959 on effects of a bypass on Huntsville, Texas.
Overall growth of Huntsville was not impaired although highway-oriented
business on the old highway (U.S. 75) was adversely affected.
A-09. Buffington, J. L., A Study of the Economic Impact of Interstate Highway 45 on
Conroe, Texas, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas Highway Department, August 1966.
Economic effects of a bypass of Conroe, Texas as illustrated by changes
in land use and value, business, travel, and general community behavior.
Impacts were generally significant and positive.
A-10. Buhl, W. F., "Intercity Highway Transport Share Trends to Vary Inversely with
Size of Plant," Highway Research Record, Number 175, pp. 9-14, 1967.
Analysis of about one million shipments drawn from files of about 10,000 firms
shows a significant inverse relation between size of manufacturing plants
and relative use of highway transport for outbound shipments.
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A-ll. Christensen, A. H., and B. C. Hartronft, Economic Impact of Interstate
Highway 35 on Blackwell, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State Highway Department,
1965. NTIS (PB-172-912).
A study of the effects of 1-35 on Blackwell, Oklahoma, using a control
city comparison. Indicators include data on population, land use,
employment and wages, sales tax, educational levels, postal receipts,
and building permits.
A-12. Connally, Julia A., The Socio-Economic Impact of the Capital Beltway on
Northern Virginia, Bureau of Population and Economic Research, University
of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, 1968.
A description of the types and intensities of development that occurred
near Washington, D. C.'s Capital Beltway in Northern Virginia during 1950-
1965. Changes in demographic, industrial, and land use characteristics are
identified and related to the beltway. Findings indicate that the beltway
increased suburban industrial and high-density residential development and
associated land values... Low-density residential development was not
influenced significantly, nor were the value of single-family homes.
The author points out that the beltway reinforced, rather than altered, the
existing trend toward suburbanization.
A-13. Connally, J. A., and C. 0. Meiburg, "The Washington Capital Beltway and Its
Impact on Industrial and Multi-Family Expansion in Virginia," Highway Research
Record, Number 217, pp. 9-27, 1968.
An examination of industrial and multi-family development in Northern
Virginia resulting from the Washington Capital Beltway. Findings include:
(1) that industrial employment increased by 71%, primarily because of new
industry locations in the area; (2) that the beltway has altered commuting
patterns; (3) that the beltway has enlarged the labor market; and (4) that
3,000 new apartment units were constructed between 1964 and 1966 due to the
beltway. The pressure of increased traffic on interchange development is
discussed, and land use controls are suggested.
A-14. Cort, C. J., "The Evaluation of Travelling Time," Journal of Transport Economics
and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 279-286, September 1969.
A summary of theoretical problems and of data problems in treating reduction
of travel times brought about by investment in transportation.
A-15. Dansereau, H, Kirk, "Highway Development: Attitudes and Economic Climate,"
Highway Research Record. Number 187, pp. 12-32, 1967.
Four attitude surveys and four economic analyses pertaining to highway inter-
changes in various small communities in Pennsylvania. The economic analyses
(land use and value within two miles of interchanges) indicate that highways
generally stimulate economic growth; expected economic growth generates in
turn favorable attitudes toward highway construction. A correlation between
education level and recognition of the economic benefits of highways is
suggested.
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A-16. Deen, R. C., Impact of 1-75 on the Local Economy between Walton and Georgetown,
Kentucky Department of Highways, 1966.
Measurement of changes in business-oriented activity after the opening of
an Interstate highway. Business activity along the old roads has decreased,
but results indicate that the area's economy as a whole appears to have
increased.
A-17. Dodge, W. H. , Influence of a Major Highway Improvement upon an Agricultural-
Based Economy, Wisconsin Department of Transportation, Division-of Highways,
and Wisconsin University, 1966.
A study of the impacts on the agricultural and trade economy resulting from
a major highway improvement (1-94) in Dunn and St. Croix Counties, Wisconsin.
The relief of congestion benefited long-haul traffic, local residents making
longer trips, and use of parallel Route 12. It also spurred land reclassi-
fication, especially near larger communities. Lowered operating costs did
not raise farm real estate values; however, as land reclassification affects
productive land use, income and gross product are expected to increase.
A-18. Erion, G. L., and G. L. Mitchell, Effects of Highway Bypasses on Five Montana
Communities, Montana University, 1966. NTIS (PB-170-871).
A study to determine the effects of bypasses on five small communities
(population less than 5,000), and to test data availability for measuring
these effects. The strength of local industry is viewed as an important
determinant of bypass effects.
A-19. Fantus Company, Inc., "Industrial Location Research Studies: Summary and
Recommendations," Appalachian Research Report, Number 4, December 1966.
An examination of why industry makes investments at particular locations
with the objective of identifying types of infrastructure investments
Important in regional development. Selected measures of economic impact
are discussed, and a ranking and evaluation of location factors considered
Important by firms in 25 industries are presented.
A-20. Faucett, Jack and Associates, Inc., Methodology for Relating Highway Investment
to Regional Economic Activity, Maryland State Roads Commission, Federal
Highway Administration, 1971.
An examination of input-output models to assess impact of highway investments
on regional economic activity. Multiregional I/O models can be used to
estimate stimulation of final demand and changes in trade patterns but not
for assessing changes in costs of goods and services.
A-21. Faucett, Jack and Associates, Inc., Regional Economic Effects of Highway Invest-
ment - A Case Study of the Interstate System. Federal Highway Administration,
July 1971.
An estimate of economic activity generated by Interstate highway construction
In each of ten census regions. Benefits are based on estimated savings from
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A-21. (Continued)
1957-1979 (separate congressional report) and are allocated to stares by
origin and destination of freight and passengers. A multi-regional
input/output table is developed based on inter-industry transactions for
each region considering interregional commodity flows.
A-22. Fidler, J., "Commercial Activity Location Model," Highway Research Record,
Number 207, pp. 68-84, 1967.
A model to predict the most likely locations of future commercial activity
in an urban area, designed to be a useful tool in transportation planning.
A consumer demand is defined for commercial goods, and the movement of
people to satisfy this demand is simulated. Model variables include:
travel-time exponent; land use type; and family income.
A-23. Fowler, R, D., J. Sanders, and A. H. Stocks, A Pilot Study of Highway-Oriented
Business Development at Interstate Interchange Areas, West Virginia University,
February 1965. NTIS (PB-173-268).
An analysis of development of highway-oriented business at 79 interchanges
in nine states in eastern U.S. No clear relation with a number of independent
variables (years since opening of interchange, distance to nearest city,
population of nearest city) could be established.
A-24. Fromm, G., ed., Transport Investment and Economic Developmerit, Brookings
Institution, Washington, D. C., 1965.
A series of twelve articles concerned with the role of transportation
investments in stimulating economic development. Its focus is on normative
design of national transportation policies to achieve pre-specified social
and economic goals in undeveloped countries. The discussions cover policy
strategies both for maximizing national outputs and for optimizing inter-
regional distribution of economic and demographic activities. The articles
range from purely theoretical to largely empirical, with the majority
concentrating on theoretical aspects of economic development.
A-25. Gamble, H. B., D. L. Raphael, and 0. H. Sauerlender, "Direct and Indirect
Economic Impacts of Highway Interchange Development," Highway Research Record,
Number 149, pp. 42-55, 1966.
A 54 sector input/output model of Clinton County, Pennsylvania to predict
indirect economic effects of 1-80 on this rural county. Primary economic
impacts are estimated from a review of physical conditions at interchanges
and from data for other Pennsylvania locations. An estimate is then
generated for new facilities, relocation of existing facilities, and shifts
in shopping patterns.
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A-26. Garrison, William L., B. J. L. Berry, D. F. Marble, J. D. Nystuen, and
R. L. Morrill, Studies of Highway Development and Geographic Change,
University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 1959.
A treatise on the role of highways in the geographical organization of
economic life and of the influence of highway change. A general discussion
of the role of transportation is followed by an analysis of the benefits of
highway improvements. The spatial arrangement of retail business with
respect to highways is then examined in detail. The influence of highways
on residential site selection is treated both theoretically and empirically.
The impact of highways on retail business is then re-examined using data on
travel from residential sites. A final section treats in detail the relation
of medical services to transportation.
A-27. Grossman, D. A., and M. R. Levin, "Area Development and Highway Transportation,"
Highway Research Record. Number 16, pp. 24-31, 1963.
A discussion of the general implications of new highways for three types of
economically distressed areas (manufacturing, mining, or agriculture based
economies) with particular emphasis on the Interstate Highway System.
Highway impacts on mining and agriculture based regions appear to be small
(e.g., the Appalachian Region). Manufacturing-based areas, however, may
be aided by industry relocation induced by improved accessibility and
labor mobility (e.g., effect of Route 128 on Lowell and Lawrence, Massachu-
setts).
A-28. Harrison, J. W., "Methods Used to Study Effects of Lexington. City, Virginia
Bypass
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A-30. Horwood, Edgar M., C. A. Zellner, and R. L. Ludwig, "Coniinunity Consequences
of Highway Improvement," National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Report, 18, 1965.
An appraisal of the state-of-the-art of studies conducted prior to 1965 on
economic impacts of highways. The largest volume of literature deals with
effects of bypasses. No generalizations are possible on beneficial effects
on bypassed communities; there is, however, conclusive evidence that bypasses
affect communities differentially (substantially depreciate economic activity
in one community and appreciate it in another). Urban radial freeway studies
have shown that land values are materially enhanced by proximity to a radial
corridor; however, most studies suffer from the bias of translating informa-
tion about parcels sold into general conclusions for all land in their
vicinity. There are few studies of circumferential roads; the most famous
is the Route 128 study which imputed a significant movement of industry to
the vicinity of this highway.
A-31. Hooker, R. W., and K. R. Potter, The Impact of a New Interstate Highway on a
Corridor; An Input-Output Analysis, Wyoming University, Federal Highway
Administration, January 1971.
An input-output analysis technique to estimate the economic impact of Inter-
state Highway 80 on southwestern Wyoming. Measurement variables are sales
by local businesses; household income, and employment generated. Local
coefficients are developed for a base year (1967); impacts are measured
during construction (1955-1975), and forecasted for the period following
highway completion (1976-1990).
A-32. Iowa State Highway Commission, Newton Economic Study, Interstate 80 Bypass,
1966. NTIS (PB-173-169).
A study of economic, land use, traffic, and highway safety effects of a
bypass (1-80) in Newton, Iowa. It is concluded that the bypass has not
deterred commercial growth, nor adversely affected the economy of the
community as a whole.
A-33. Kiley, E. Y., "Highways as a Factor in Industrial Location," Highway Research
Record, Number 75, 1965.
A report on the results of a nationwide survey of newly located business
establishments between 1955 and 1959. The questionnaire survey sought to
determine what factors were most important in plant location decisions for
a variety of industrial classifications. The single most frequently mentioned
factor was proximity to good highways, but market, labor, and land availability
were also rated important. The relative importance of locational factors
varies sharply from industry to industry. The results also reflect a
pronounced outward movement of industry from central city to suburban and
rural locations.
*
A-34. Kinnard, William N., and 2. S. Mallnowski, Highways as a Factor in Small Manu-
facturing Plant Location Decisions, University of Connecticut, August 1961.
. An assessment of the relative importance of highway access to industrial
firms through mailed questionnaires and in depth interviews. Firms were
173
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A-34. (Continued)
grouped according to size (number of employees); type of decision (new firm
or relocation); location (in or outside city); tenancy (owner or renter);
and industry type (metal or non-metal). Highway access was most important
to large firms relocating outside the city area.
A-35. Kraft, Gerald, et al., The Role of Transportation in Regional Economic Development,
D. C. Heath & Company,. Lexington, Massachusetts, 1971.
The authors examine the use of location theory and regional science to
determine general highway transportation impacts on regional economic
development.
A-36. Kuehn, John A., and J. G. West, "The Ozarks: Highways and Regional Development,"
Growth and Change: A Journal of Regional Development, Vol. 2, pp. 23-28.,
July 1971.
An overview of highway development in depressed areas and a contribution to
the debate over whether highways should be the major focus in regional
planning. Highway type is related to type and amount of industrial
employment in the Ozark region. Major highways were not a crucial factor
in explaining income variations or labor force characteristics; access and
local roads showed a higher correlation with income.
A-37. Lane, S. R., Freeway Traffic Noise: An InformationJBase for Urban Development
Decision. 1971. NT1S (PB-204-434).
A profile of Los Angeles traffic volumes and residential densities is
developed and general impacts of noise are described. Comparative British
data is used to identify noise "Zones of Intrusion" surrounding urban
freeways. General connections between noise and urban economics and
property values' are made.
A-38. Leone, R. A., "Role of Data Availability in Intrametropolitan Workplace Location
Studies," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 171-182,
April 1972.
A review of data base deficiencies in previous research on intrametropolitan
location patterns, and presentation of a set of criteria for a new data
base. Inter- and intra-city transportation requirements of each area
establishment is proposed as one measure of location factors.
A-39. Leven, Charles L., "A Framework for the Evaluation of Secondary Impacts of Public
Investments," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 52, pp. 723-730,
December 1970.
A discussion of approaches to secondary impact analysis. The "multi-
dimensionality" of impacts is examined (e.g., some impacts can be quantified
while others are qualitative, some impacts are positive while others are
negative). The author questions the "stock-adjustment" response which he
defines as meeting of a public service demand by increasing capacity
(e.g., building a new highway) and advocates examination of reallocating
174
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A-39. (Continued)
existing capacity (e.g., examine other modes of transportation for possible
use).
A-40. Maiolo, John R., ed., Highways and Communities, Pennsylvania State University,
Institute for Research on Land and Water Resources, University Park, Pa., 1966.
A review of five studies relating to Pennsylvania highway interchanges.
Emphasis is on (1) predicting economic growth generated by interchanges;
(2) land use plans to prevent future congestion of bypass intersections;
and (3) social and community conditions conducive to (2). Two studies
examine highway impacts in the towns of Blairsville and Monroeville, Pa.
Other studies address: non-urban interchange development; dynamic
simulation of land use at interchanges; and small community organization
and its influence on land use planning.
A-41. Maryland State Roads Commission, Economic Impact Studies on a Portion of the
Baltimore Beltway, July 1960.
A three-part coordinated land economic study to determine the overall
effects of expressway construction on abutting residential subdivisions of
the Towson section, north of the city of Baltimore. An examination of
residential property sales data and the subjective responses of subdivision
residents showed no significant beltway impacts.
A-=-42. Ma?on 7. B. 2nd C. T. Moo^e llr'c!E£i£rci.:il Si*"s Sslect^or 3t Interstate Inter-
changes," Traffic Quarterly. Eno Foundation for Transportation, Vol. 27, No. 1,
pp. 19-23, January 1973.
Summary of past research identifying the potential attractiveness of inter-
change areas to highway-oriented business. The authors conclude that
development is most likely to occur at a diamond interchange which intersects
either a U.S. or beltline highway, near an urban area of 25,000 or more
population, with minimum average daily traffic of 7,500 vehicles. Additional
criteria (e.g., water and sewerage system availability) are discussed, and
additional research areas suggested.
A-43. McKain, Walter C., The Connecticut Turnpike - A Ribbon of Hope, University of
Connecticut, Storrs Agricultural Experiment Station, 1965.
A before and after (1956-1962) study of the impacts of the eastern portion
(53 miles) of the Connecticut Turnpike. Comparison of "turnpike" towns
against "control" towns showed a relative increase of population, manufacturing,
retail sales, and tourist trade. A higher annual appreciation of residential
property was also found. Although the highway had a significant impact on
economic growth, its effect was not as substantial as anticipated, primarily
because of local opposition to change.
A-44. Meyer, J. R., J. F. Kain, and M. Wohl, The Urban Transportation Problem, Harvard
University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1965.
An examination of urban transportation systems including highways and mass
transit. The focus is on the effect of transportation on the overall
metropolitan environment.
175
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A-45. Michigan State University, Economic and Social Effects of Highway Improvements:
A Summary, summarized by E. Clark Rowley, East Lansing, Michigan, 1961.
A summary and evaluations of the findings of seven studies of highway impacts
carried out in the late 1950's on small to medium sized towns in Michigan.
Economic impacts and induced community changes are examined for three separate
kinds of highway investments: relocations, bypasses, and improved regional
highway networks. Highway-related impacts include changes in land values,
retail trade, population growth, and land use patterns. Highway relocations
and bypasses did not significantly decrease business activities along the
old routes. However, both property values and land usage along the old
and new routes were affected.
A-46. Mills, E. S., Studies in the Structure of the Urban Economy, Resources for the
Future, Inc., 151 pp., 1972.
An empirical study of the patterns and causes of suburbanization from the
1880's to the 1960's. Theoretical models are constructed to analyze the
relation between location of employment and residence in urban areas.
Congestion as a cause and effect of suburbanization is examined, as well
as ways in which investment and pricing in urban transportation can affect
urban residential density.
A-47. Missouri State Highway Commission, Boonville Economic Study, 1958-1963, 1965.
BT1S (PB-172-983).
Analysis of the economic effects of a bypass highway (opened in 1960) on
Boonville, Missouri. Three new interchange areas are also examined. Retail
sales of gasoline, motel and hotel, restaurants, and general merchandise
are examined from 1958 to 1963.
A-48. Montana State College, Benefits from Highway Development: User and Non-User,
Agricultural Experiment Station, Bozeman, Montana, 1956.
User and non-user benefits in two areas along secondary roads in Montana
are examined. Highway beneficiaries include highway (motor vehicle) users;
property owners; the general public; and the automotive industry.
A-49. Moore, C. T., A Study of the Expected Economic and Social Impact of Interstate
Highways in the Industrial and Commercial Trading Area of Birmingham, Alabama,
Alabama Highway Department, Final Report, September 1965.
An examination of possible impacts resulting from completion of the Inter-
state Highway System in Birmingham, Alabama. Portions of the system completed
by 1965 in outlying rural areas encouraged movement of people and goods away
from the CBD. Impact areas addressed include: manufacturing; retail trade
and service industries; transient-oriented businesses; land use; and social
impacts. Ways in which the CBD might remain competitive with outlying areas
are suggested (e.g., development of service industries, cultural activities,
etc.).
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A-50. Mueller, Eva, A. Wieken, and M. Wood, Location Decisions and Industrial Mobility
in Michigan, University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research, 1961.
An exploration of industrial attitudes toward location decisions (including
new locations, plant expansion, and relocation) among Michigan manufacturers
in 1961. The authors' objective was to assess Michigan's attractiveness for
industry as measured by satisfaction or dissatisfaction with specific area
characteristics. Among factors considered important in plant location
decisions were access to markets and access to materials (including
transportation costs). Traffic access and parking as such did not rate
high in a list of twenty-one possible responses.
A-51. North Carolina State Highway Commission, Remainder and Economic Study at Inter-
changes on 1-95, North Carolina State Highway Commission Research Project,
Raleigh, N. C., 1966.
An examination of 36 interchanges on 1-95, extending in a general north-south
direction through North Carolina. A field investigation of each interchange
was conducted to determine sales and leases and amount and type of develop-
ment. Interchange classifications included: full (ramps leading to four
quadrants); partial (ramps leading to 1, 2, or 3 quadrants); and terminal
(the termination points of the Interstate highway). The dependence of
development on interchange and type quadrant was examined: no clear
patterns were evident.
A-52. North Star Research and Development Institute, The Economic Impact of the Freeways
on the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 1971.
An examination of six impacts (land use, retail trade, residential property
values, tax patterns, commercial and industrial freight, and community
changes) of three Interstate segments of the Twin Cities' Freeway System.
The highways examined include radial and circumferential freeways; were
constructed from 1960 to 1968; and traverse both urban and suburban areas.
A-53. Ohio Department of Highways, A Bypass Economic Impact Study of Circleville, Piqua,
and St. Clairsville, Ohio, May 1966.
An examination of the economic effects of bypass highways in three cities
with population levels of approximately 19,000, 11,000 and 4,000. Industry
was disaggregated into eleven groups for study. Gasoline sales decreased in
all cities and most stations compensated by increasing repair and service
functions. The smallest city (St. Clairsville) showed the greatest decrease,
and the least ability to recover. Motels in all cities were adversely
affected by bypass construction.
A-54. Oklahoma Department of Highways, Economic Impact of Interstate Highway 35 on
Tonkawa, Oklahoma, U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, 1968.
An interim report describing impacts of Interstate Highway 35 on Kay County
based on before and after comparison, and comparison to a control county
(Woodward County). Variables examined include: land use, population,
employment, wages, education, income, sales tax, and agricultural production.
Interstate 35 was completed in January 1963. In the following two years, sales
taxes increased by 11.3% in the study area (approximately twice that of the
control area); gasoline station sales declined 5.8%; and sales of commercial
land doubled.
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A-55. Pennsylvania State University, Highway Impact Research Staff, Blairsville:
A Bypass Study - The Economic and Social Impact of a Highway, 1962.
Effects on business activity and land use caused by the construction of an
uncontrolled access highway bypass of a rural Pennsylvania town during
the 1950's. Data was collected through interviews and mailed questionnaires.
Changes were measured in the CBD, along the new highway, and along the old
road. Impact analysis includes: business type and level, land use, and
land value. The study concludes that diversion of through traffic allowed
more extensive use of the CBD for local trade.
A-56. Pipkin, L. S., F. L. Hendrix, and G. L. Banner, Economic Impact of Interstate 40
on Existing Development Along State Route 1 Between Knoxville and Kingston,
Tennessee, and Adjacent Areas, Tennessee University, 1966.
Examination of business activity, land use, and land value along Route 1
after the construction of 1-40 in Tennessee. A sharp decline in business
was observed the first year following road opening. Other non-highway
change factors are noted,- such as: service facility availability; age and
location of business. In land use, topography, drainage, lack of accessibility,
and reluctance of people to move from family holdings were significant- factors.
A-57. Rae, J.'B., "The Mythology of Urban Transportation," Traffic Quarterly, Eno
Foundation for Transportation, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 85-98, January 1972.
A discussion of the historical and functional bases for the development of
urban centers, and increasing suburbanization trends. The author contends
th>": urban transportation planning should stress int2rsuburban travel,
rather than focus solely on peak-hour commuter travel between suburb and
city center.
A-58. RapP, John, Economic Impact Study of U.S. 81 through Yankton, South Dakota,
prepared for South Dakota Dept. of Highways, Research and Planning Division,
November 1966.
An examination of economic and social effects of highway improvements along
a 3.1 mile section of U.S. 81 in Yankton, S. D, from 1956-1966. Changes in
land use, assessed valuations, land values and property tax payments, sales
and employment, and sociological benefits were estimated using before and
after and control area comparisons. Substantial increases in land value,
land use conversion to commercial uses, number of businesses, and employment
and sales were found. Benefit-cost analysis showed a 6:1 ratio.
A-59. Real Estate Research Corporation, Highway Networks as a factor in the Selection of
Commercial and Industrial Locations, prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Public
Roads, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1958.
Results of a survey (134 newly-located businesses in the Chicago, Pittsburgh,
and Hartford areas during the 1950*s) designed to determine the importance
of highway networks in corporate location decisions. Businesses consider
a number of factors in their location decisions; highway-related factors
seldom dominate. The importance of. highway factors varies widely for dif-
ferent types of industry.
178
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A-60. Reinsburg, Mark, Growth and Change in Metropolitan Aieas and Their Relation to
Metropolitan Transportation, Northwestern University, Transportation Center,
Evanston, Illinois, 1961.
A discussion of the roles of mass transit and automobile transportation in
the decline of the central business district (CBD). Congestion of the inner
city because of increased automobile use, Migration of higher income families
to the suburbs, migration of industry from the CBD, and a reduced tax base in
the inner city are noted. The declining use of mass transit, the possibility
of subsidy for mass transit, and the role of the CBD as a "seed bed" for
new small firms are discussed. It is suggested that survival of urban mass
transit in its present form is unlikely.
A-61. Richards, H. A., J. P. Miller, and W. H. Allio, A Study of Interstate Highways,
Frontage Roads, and Industry Location, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas
A & M University, 1968. NTIS (PB-180-351).
A review of studies dealing with industrial plant location, in relation to
the Interstate Highway System (with and without frontage roads) in Texas.
Findings included: (1) firms locating after highway completion consider
frontage roads more important than those located prior to completion;
(2) that firms near metropolitan areas valued frontage more than in smaller
communities; and (3) that leased plants tend to be oriented toward frontage
road areas.
A-62. Shurbert, M., and F. J. Devaney, "Maryland Capital Beltway Study," Highway Research
Record. Number 277, p. 41, 1969.
A summary of the design of an impact study of Interstate 495 (Capital Beltway)
on Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties.
A-63. Smith, Wilbur & Associates, Inc., Maryland Capital Beltway Impact Study: Final
Report, Washington SMSA and Maryland Counties, prepared for the Maryland State
Roads Commission, June 1968.
An analysis of the impact of the Capital Beltway on the Washington SMSA in
the areas of: economic base; industry; recreation; institutional development;
work trips; business centers; residential property values; population allocation;
employment; retail sales; labor force, housing units and automobiles; traffic
noise; and traffic. While the study area includes the entire Washington SMSA,
main emphasis is given to the Maryland Counties of Montgomery and Prince Georges.
A variety of methodologies is used to trace the impacts from the opening of
the beltway in 1964 to the completion of the study in 1968. Historical trends
are analyzed from 1950 to provide a base for assessing impacts.
A-64. Straszheim, Mahlon R., "Transportation Policy as an Instrument for Altering Regional
Development Patterns Misdirected Emphasis?," Discussion Paper Number 52,
Harvard University Program on Regional and Urban Economics, Cambridge, Mass.,
August 1969.
An analysis of the historical role of transportation in regional development.
The growing service industry, metropolitan decentralize.!"! n, and the decreasing
dependence on proximity to raw materials have contributed to a decline in the
importance of regional transportation systems. In addition, more homogeneous
179
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A-64. (Continued)
transportation throughout the country has lessened the significance of new
investments. The evolution of study techniques from classical location
theory to large scale simulation models is summarized.
A-65. Stroup, R. H., and L. A. Vargha, "Economic Impact of Secondary Road Improvements,"
Highway Research Record, Number 16, 1963.
An analysis of the changes in retail trade (location and markets) resulting
from improvements to secondary roads in a rural town in Kentucky. Businesses
which closed or opened from 1938-1950 and 1955-1960 were examined. Data
indicated that paving of secondary roads stimulates concentration of retail
business in areas made accessible by these roads.
A-66. Wells, D. R., An Economic Impact Study of the Effects of Interstate 55 on the
Highway-Related Businesses in Five Northern Mississippi Towns, Mississippi
University, Mississippi State Highway Department, June 1967.
Effects of a bypass on total sales of eating and lodging places and sales of
gasoline by service stations. Although aggregate figures show little impact,
some firms were adversely affected.
A-67. Wheat, L. F., "Effect of Modern Highways on Urban Manufacturing Growth," Highway
Research Record, Number 277, 1969.
An attempt to determine whether cities with superior intercity highway
connections enjoy more rapid manufacturing industry growth. Manufacturing
growth rates from 1958 to 1963 are compared for two groups of cities, an
experimental group located on Interstate System freeways, and a control
group located elsewhere. The two groups were comparable in all major aspects
population, location, air service, economic activity, etc. except highways.
Nationwide, there was no significant difference in the growth performance of the
two groups. But in areas with dense populations and uneven terrain the North-
east, Southeast, East Midwest, and Far West freeway cities grew much faster.
A-68. Whitehurst, C. H., The Road Around: A Study of the Economic Impact of Highway
Bypasses on Rural South Carolina Cities and Towns, Clemson University, 1965.
NTIS (PB-172-938).
A case study to evaluate bypass highway impact on five small cities and towns
(under 10,000 population) in South Carolina. Field interviews and analysis
and comparison of land value data indicated that: (1) highway-oriented
business sales may decrease in a high-growth town, but overall community
growth will offset these losses; (2) low-growth towns will experience more
adverse effects on highway-oriented growth; and (3) businesses tend to cluster
around bypass intersections with main highways, while residential land use
will locate between main artery intersections.
180
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A-69. Williams, R. L. , and R. K. Koshal, Highways and Economic Development in Ohio,
Volume 1, Ohio University, Ohio Department of Public Works, Athens, Ohio, 1970.
The impact of highways on economic growth in all 88 counties of Ohio
measured empirically from growth of per capita income (as deduced from sales
taxes). It is concluded that highways induced growth although the relation
between highway capacity and income level varied widely from county to
county.
A-70. Witheford, David K., "Highway Impacts on Downtown and Suburban Shopping," Highway
Research Record, Number 187, pp. 15-20, 1967.
An assessment of the highway role in the growth of suburban shopping retail
sales centers and the relative decline of trade in the central business
district. Market areas within equal travel times of each shopping area are
compared and reassessed after a metropolitan transportation improvement
program increases the equal travel time radii by a constant amount. Buffalo,
New York is used as a test case. The analysis shows that highway improvements
favor suburban shopping areas.
A-71. Wright, A. L., and M. G. Blase, "A Depressed Region and Three Myths," Growth and
Change; A Journal of Regional Development, Vol. 2, pp. 14-22, July 1971.
An overview of highway development in depressed areas and a contribution to
the debate on the role of highways in regional planning. Multiple, cross-
sectional regression analysis is used to relate a major arterial highway
serving the Missouri Ozark region to per capita income growth and tvpes of
employment during 1950-1965. The study challenges the assertion that
opening up of depressed areas through Interstate highways leads to increased
participation in national growth.
A-72. Wullweber, L. D., South Dakota Interstate Highway 29, Economic Impact Study,
South Dakota Department of Highways, June 1967.
Analysis of the effect of a bypass on four towns as measured by changes
in taxable retail sales. Although the area as a whole benefited by the new
highway (Interstate 29), certain areas and business located on the old
road (U.S. 77) were adversely affected.
A-73. Wullweber, L. D., Long Term Economic Effects of Highway SD 50 Bypass on Tyndall,
South Dakota, South Dakota Department of Highways, 1967.
An examination of changes in business sales, traffic volume, and highway
safety in a small town (Tyndall, South Dakota) resulting from a bypass
highway. Sales for the town as a whole were not affected by the bypass
route.
A-74. Zickefoose, P. W., Raton Bypass Study - After Phase, New Mexico State University,
November 1967.
A study of the impact of a bypass on the Raton community, six years after
highway completion. Examination of tourism, transient-oriented business
sales, an'd land use changes lead to the author's conclusion that the bypass
181
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A-74. (Continued)
has not produced the economic boost anticipated by bypass proponents, nor
the disasterous business decline predicted by bypass opponents.
A-75. Zwlck, Charles J., "The Demand for Transportation Services in a Growing Economy,"
Highway Research Record, Number 2, pp. 3-5, 1965.
Causal relations between transportation and economic growth and how they have
changed over time. It is suggested that transportation shaped economic growth
in the past, but that today forces exogenous to the transportation system
determine economic development. Mobility of labor and capital and increasing
dominance of these two factors over raw material inputs in industry allow
industry to locate near its markets rather than near raw materials. Rising
personal income has led to willingness to pay for quality in transportation
service. Future transportation systems will be determined by economic forces
and demands for quality service.
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I. HIGHWAYS
B. Social-Demographic
B-01. Ashford, N. and F. W. Halloway, The Effect of Age on Urban Travel Behavior (Report
No. 1), Florida State University Transportation Center, June 1970. NTIS (PB-196-843),
A quantitative analysis of the effect of age on urban travel, using six
cities of varying geographic location and population size for case study.
Travel parameters (3 modes of transportation; 5 trip purposes) were
correlated with socio-economic variables by regression models. Large
variations in travel behavior and demand among age levels are indicated.
B-02. Balkus, K., "Transportation Implications of Alternative Sketch Plans." Highway
Research Record. Number 180, pp. 52-70, 1967.
An analysis of three patterns of possible regional growth (decentralized,
new-town, and megalopolis), and a discussion of how a transportation network
can be designed to influence these population distribution patterns. Two
travel characteristics propensity for making trips, and relative utiliza-
tion of transport modes are correlated with population distribution patterns.
B-03. Buffington, J. L., D. Burke, W. Adkins and H. Meuth, Experience and Opinions of
Residents Along Elevated, Depressed, and On-Grade Freeway Sections in Houston,
Texas - Economic & Environmental Effects as Factors in Highway Decision Making.
Texas Transportation Institute, Texas Highway Department, Federal Highway
Administration, Report No. 2-1-71-148.
A survey of residents near the Katy Freeway in Houston, Texas (opened in
1968) to determine impacts and reactions to highway location and design.
Respondents (primarily white males, approximately 48 years old, 9 years
formal education, middle income, single-family dwelling units) indicated
satisfaction with improved accessibility. Noise was the most frequent
annoyance factor mentioned (less significant in depressed freeway design
areas).
B-04. Burkhardt, J. E., "Impact of Highways on Urban Neighborhoods: A Model of Social
Change," Highway Research Record. Number 356, pp. 85-94, 1971.
A model to estimate changes in social interaction in urban neighborhoods
caused by highway improvements. Residents' behavioral and perceptual
patterns provide the basis for a "neighborhood social interaction index."
The influence of highways on this index is measured by: amount of land
taken; and placement of the highway with respect to the spatial dispersion
of social factors. Number of crossovers per mile and roadway elevation
are used in addition to measure intra-neighborhood accessibility changes.
183
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B-05. Christensen, A. G. and A. N. Jackson, "Problems of Relocation in a Major City:
Activities and Achievements in Baltimore, Maryland," Highway Research Record.
Number 277, pp. 1-8, 1969.
A discussion of the problems with relocation assistance for those displaced
by highways and a description of relocation activities in Baltimore.
B-06-. Clawson, Marion, "Implications of Recreational Needs for Highway Improvement,"
Highway Research Board. Bulletin 311, pp. 31-37, 1962.
A discussion of the possible effects of highways providing access to three
types of recreation areas: user-oriented (close availability to user group);
resource-based (abundant natural resources); and intermediate areas (within
one-hour travel time and the best natural areas available). Outdoor recrea-
tion growth is assumed to be the result of increases in population, per
capita income, leisure time, and accessibility. An index of national outdoor
recreation for 1956-2000 is presented, based on these four factors.
B-07, Cooper, E., Methods of Improving Transportation Facilities for Inner-City Dwellers,
Howard University, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-095).
An examination of methods for providing transportation services to inner-city
residents and equality of access to employment, recreational, and other urban
opportunities. Proposed case studies in Washington, Nashville, and New York
will test the results of a previous study of New York City low-income residents
on origin-destination; car ownership; and access to opportunities. The author
contends that integrated planning of transportation and urban development is
necessary; end that the government should assist inner-city ^wallers in odiiev-
ing nobility (e.g., subsidization of private personal vehicles).
B-08. Dansereau, 'H. Kirk, "Five Years of Highway Research: A sociological Perspective,"
Highway Research Record. Number 75, pp. 76-82, 1965.
A summary of some social impacts (income, employment, migration, community
outlook, and organization) identified by Pennsylvania State University
. researchers in impact studies conducted on various types of interstate
highways.
B-09. Dansereau, H. Kirk, "Highway Development: Community Attitudes and Organization,"
Highway Research Record, Number 16, pp. 44-59, 1963.
An analysis of social characteristics, attitudes, and community complexity in
three communities within the Pittsburgh SMSA affected by the introduction of
infrequent access radial highways and/or circumferential highways. Attitude
toward highway improvements were obtained from primary field surveys.
Generally, there was satisfaction with social and economic changes resulting
from the highway. An 11-variable "Index of Community Complexity" was
developed to record how communities respond to a highway investment (e.g.,
land subdivision controls, establishment of a sewer authority, zoning
commission activities).
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B-10. Ehrlich, T. , Specialized Trip Distribution Study: Metropolitan Recreation. Consortium
of University, Urban Transportation Center, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-096).
Model development to estimate demand for recreational facilities. Demographic
and land use data from the regional council of governments was combined with
results of a license plate survey of a recreation area (residential origins
determined from motor vehicle registration data) to compute park visitation
in terms of: (1) user's residential area; and (2) travel time.
B-ll. Ellis, R- H. and R. D. Worrall, "Toward Measurement of Community Impact: The Utiliza-
tion of Longitudinal Travel Data to Define Residential Linkages," Highway Research
Record, Number 277, pp. 25-39, 1969.
A method for empirically defining existing residential linkages involving the
analysis of activities of households and of the important set of destination
points as perceived by households. Data and analysis are presented for Skokie,
Illinois. The approach can be used to estimate the community impact of trans-
portation projects.
B-12. Falcocchio, J., Modal Choices and Travel Attributes of the Inner-City Poor, Polytechnic
Institute Brooklyn, September 1971. NTIS (PB-206-149).
A profile of inner city residents and their travel habits. Residents are
disaggregated by race, age, household size, median income, occupation,
automobile ownership, trips per household, trip purpose, and modal split.
Data show that most inner city residents travel less, have less modal choice,
less mobility and reduced opportunities for all trip purposes.
B-13. George, Stephen, Jr., "Transportation System Development and Evaluation as Practiced
in Seattle," Highway Research Record, Number 238, pp. 116-122, 1968.
Evaluation of the Puget Sound (Seattle, Washington) transportation system,
using population distribution and employment distribution models. It is
suggested that residential characteristics (e.g., quality of homes) are
becoming more Important than access to employment; that added transportation
capacity may be needed in the suburbs rather than the central business
district; and that with a given mileage of committed major facilities and
an established travel pattern, land use planning should conform and
strengthen major travel corridors.
B-14. Goodwin, A., "Attitudes and Shopper Mobility in a Small City," Highway Research
Record, Number 233, pp. 16-26, 1968.
A comparison of shopper attitudes in small (less than 50,000 population) and
large cities, to analyze the decentralization of retail trade from the CBD
to suburban areas. Inadequate parking was cited as the major disadvantage
of the CBD in both large and small cities. Small city CBD shoppers tended
to be older, persons of modest means, or in the upper income levels.
Suburban shoppers were generally in the middle groups in terms of age, educa-
tion, income, and family composition characteristics. A group of shoppers
indicating high mobility was composed of younger, higher income, and white
collar employed persons.
185
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B-15. Greytak, D., Residential Segregation, Metropolitan Decentralization and the Journey
to Work - Occasional Paper No. 3. Syracuse University, Urban Transporation
Institute, July 1970. NT1S (PB-196-904).
An examination of the spatial redistribution of trade and manufacturing
activities in urban areas. The concentration of professional jobs in the
CUD and the migration of the skilled labor force to suburban residences;
and the concentration of non-white residences in the central cities wh'ile
unskilled manufacturing and trade job opportunities move away from the
central city are discussed, and housing segregation is viewed as- a
significant factor in shaping these trends.
B-16. Grler, George W., "Social Impact Analysis of an Urban Freeway System," Highway Research
Record. Number 305, pp. 63-74, 1970.
A social impact analysis of a proposed highway network in Baltimore, Maryland,
consisting of four radial highways (three of them part of the Interstate
Highway System). Social characteristics of Baltimore are discussed (large
outmigration of whites in the 25 to 64 age levels; an increasing percentage
of blacks in the city population). As a result of the social impact analyses,
the plans were altered to minimize or avoid predicted social problems.
B-17. Hinshaw, M. and K. Allott, "Environmental Preferences of Future Housing Consumers,"
Journal of the American Institute of Planners. Vol. 38, No. 2, March 1972, pp. 102-107.
A housing and neighborhood preference survey of urban youths, with the results
disaggregated according to race/ethnicity, family income level, and type of
housing proscr.tly occupied. Housing preferences, throughout alaoot all groups,
were for single-family suburban homes, with little desire for proximity to
relatives. Neighborhood preferences were ranked according to importance:
"... overall, safety and proximity to good schools are considered to be
critically important. Attractiveness, proximity to transit stops, friendliness
of neighbors, and access to parks are considered important or very important
as decisional factors, while proximity to shops, entertainment, and place of
work are considered relatively unimportant."
B-18. Hyman, G. M., "Trip Distribution and Modal Split by Categories of Households," Trans-
portation Research, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 71-76, April 1970.
An analysis of the dependence of trip generation on the distribution of
household variables (e.g., income, car ownership). Modal splits depend
on household categories.
B-19. Kalachek, E. D. and J. M. Goering, Transportation and Central City Unemployment.
Washington University, St. Louis, March 1970. NTIS (PB-192-493).
A refutation of the theory that lack of adequate transportation deprives
Inner city residents of the mobility required to obtain jobs. The study
includes data for St. Louis on location of employment and residences in
1960; job hunting patterns; Job tenure; and a survey of suburban manufactur-
ing plants.
186
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B-20. Kanwit, Edmond L. and A. F. Eckartt, "Transportation Implications of Employment Trends
in Central Cities and Suburbs," Highway Research Record. No. 187, pp. 1-14, 1967.
Describes employment trends in 24 largest SMSA's of U.S. during 1948-63 and
analyzes the volume and proportion of employment in the central cities and
suburbs. Shows rapid growth in suburbs and progressive relative decline
in central cities.
B-21. Koike, H., Planning Urban Transportation Systems; A Model for Generating Socially
Desirable Transportation Network Configurations - Research Report No. 2, Washington
University, Seattle Urban Planning and Civil Engr. Departments. NTIS (PB-199-290).
A model for designing transportation networks to increase the "satisfaction
level" - an index depending on transportation accessibility, employment
accessibility and socio-economic status. A weighing function favors least
satisfied residents in an urban area.
B-22. Kurkhardt, J. E. and M. T. Shaffer, "Social and Psychological Impacts of Transporta-
tion Improvements." Transportation (NETH), Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 207-26, August 1972.
A discussion of the social impacts of transportation improvements in urban
neighborhoods. The identification of social impacts, suggested measurement
techniques, and the need for transportation planners to consider these impacts
in the planning process are presented.
B-23. Lisco, T. E., "Value of Commuters Travel Time' - A Study in Urban Transportation,"
D-f oV,!.i-.- T>p<-oo-K TjQ,-<-..-1 XTi.mKav I/S n "If, 1 OHO
--T3^ -*c " -**-~*- > ..»._*... _*_;, fi. -J*Jt ..ww.
A modal choice study based on household interview data collected as part of
the Chicago Skokie Swift Mass.Transportation Demonstration Project. Analysis
of times and costs for alternative trip modes inferred by choices of commuters,
and the effects of commuter characteristics (e.g., income) on modal choice
was conducted. Results showed that: (1) typical commuters value time-at
4 or 5 cents per minute, and value comfort at $2.00 per day; (2) that commuters
will choose between transit and automobile travel based on time and cost
benefits; and (3) the discomfort of walking time is significant (an indication
that placement of transit stations may be important in determining use).
B-24. Manarolla, J. A., The Trip to Work - A Submodule of a General Metropolitan-Regional
Area Man-Machine Simulation. Consortium of University, Urban Transportation Center,
1970. NTIS (PB-194-099).
A general operational simulation of a metropolitan or regional area. Variables
include spatial relations, private economic activities, local government
functions, and federal/state aid, and personal functions (job seeking, demand
for public facilities, leisure time activities, voting behavior). A gaming
situation is used to assess travel time, convenience, and costs in determining
modal choice for journeys to work.
B-25. McKain, W. C., "Community Response to Highway Improvements," Highway Research Record.
Number 96, pp. 19-23, 1965.
An examination of community capacity for change as an important factor in
highway impact, with specific reference to the Connecticut Turnpike's influence
187
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B-25. (Continued)
on Eastern Connecticut. The area is rural with many small towns; its labor
force is characterized by little education, narrow skills (making retraining
difficult), and little propensity to migrate. The author contends that local
governments were unable to respond to opportunities presented by the turnpike
because their constituencies opposed change.
B-26. McLean, E. L. and W. G. Adkins, "Freeway Effects on Residential Mobility in
Metropolitan Neighborhoods," Highway Research Record, Number 356, pp. 95-104, 1971.
A summary of research to: delineate metropolitan neighborhoods, assess
freeway impact on residential mobility, and create a causal and predictive
analysis framework. Study of 152 neighborhoods (bordering or segmented by
a freeway) and 47 control neighborhoods (not bordering a freeway) are
examined in Austin, Dallas, and Houston; a "neighborhood" index (to
measure neighborhood delineation and residential socio-economic level)
and a "mobility" index (to measure residential mobility) are developed
and tested.
B-27. Meyburg, A. H., "Analysis of Relationships Between Intercity Passenger Transportation
and the Socio-economic Characteristics of Metropolitan Areas," Transportation
Research Forum. Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 271-84, 1972.
Development of measures of socio-economic characteristics of metropolitan areas,
with specific reference to intercity transportation system characteristics.
Forty metropolitan areas in the Northeast Corridor are analyzed over a. 30-
year period, and the significance and stability of statistical relajiicmsliips
are examined.
B-28. Mouchahoir, G. E., The Relationship of Work Trips to Employment Connected Social
and Economic Factors. 1970. NTIS (PB-197-816).
An analysis of socio-economic and travel variables as exhibited by the employees
of 20 large Atlanta work centers making trips to work. Trip variables were
correlated with square footage of work centers; average occupational level;
and distance of employee travel. A model is developed having causal and
functional characteristics which permit analysis of existing conditions, and
calibration of forecasting techniques.
B-29. Mouchahoir, G. E. and P. H. Wright, "Use of Socioeconomic Indicators in Trip Attrac-
tion of Large Work Centers," Highway Research Record, Number 392, 139-42, 1972.
Design of a trip-attraction model for large work centers, based on a mail
survey of 25,000 employees in 25 Atlanta work centers. Indicators were
obtained for employers (floor space, distance from Atlanta CBD, assessed
value of work center, and number of work trips attracted); and employees
(including occupation, education, incomes, age, years at work, travel
time and distance, home value, number of cars, number of children).
B-30. Nash, W. and J. Voss, "Analyzing the Socio-Economic Impact of Urban Highways,"
Highway Research Board. Bulletin 268, pp. 80-94, 1960.
A study of physical impacts (e.g., displacement of families) and "functional"
impacts (e.g., population, employment) of the metropolitan highway system on
188
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B-30. (Continued)
Boston, Massachusetts and outlying communities. A methodology is suggested
for assessing functional impacts of highway development places. Impacts are
discussed in terms of income, employment, journey to work, population growth
and distribution, land densities and development, recreation, and taxes.
B-31. Redding, M. J. and G. L. Peterson, "Adequacy of the Spatial Organization of
Residential Neighborhoods: The Residents' Point of View," Highway Research
Record, Number 410, pp. 64-65, 1972.
A model is developed to determine resident preferences for accessibility
to selected neighborhood services. The desire for access is weighed
against aversion to proximity to determine residential preference.
B-32. Ryan, C. R., et al., "An Evaluation of the Feasibility of Social Diagnostic Tech-
niques in the Transportation Planning Process," Highway Research Record, Number 410,
pp. 8-23, 1972.
A social diagnostic survey of residents near Milwaukee and Wauwatosa, Wisconsin
who would be affected by a highway extension. Demographic characteristics
(race, age, income, education levels, home ownership, and organization affilia-
tions) developed from a questionnaire survey were correlated with attitudes
toward existing and proposed transportation services. Respondents were equally
divided (pro and con) concerning the proposed project. Age was the most
significant variable, since those 60 years or older tended to oppose the
project, while those in the 20 to 40 year age group indicated approval of the
B-33. Sawhill, Roy, Freeways and Residential Neighborhoods. Automotive Safety Foundation,
Washington, D.C., 1965.
An examination of a freeway crossing the North Broadway area of Seattle,
dividing it into three parts, and demolishing existing urban structures
(e.g., churches and schools). Impact analysis includes: land use (residen-
tial and commercial development and rezoning); and household characteristics
(school commuting, traffic congestion, use of highway for shopping and
personal business, property values, dislocations).
B-34. Sinha, K. C., "Reliability Analysis in Land Use-Transportation Planning," Highway
Research Record. Number 392, pp. 157-158, 1972.
Development of a method for estimating future design-year population levels
for use in the land use-transportation planning process (e.g., for predicting
ridership demand on transit systems, or traffic volume on a planned highway
network). Seven counties in southwestern Wisconsin are studied and future
design-year populations estimated.
B-35. Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Center City Transportation Project: Urban Design
Guideline. September 1970. NTIS (PB-198-600).
Case studies of five cities (Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Seattle)
Including evaluation of urban design work programs, and a field survey of
189
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B-35. (Continued)
communities in each area. Three levels of urban design are addressed:
(1) city form; (2) transportation architecture; and (3) human factors.
B-36. Smith, Wilbur & Associates, Inc., The Impact of Highways on Selected Public Services.
Prepared for the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Public Roads, New Haven,
Connecticut, 1960.
An attempt to identify the beneficial effects of highways on seven selected
public services by examining national trends and several state and city areas
from the early 1900's through 1958. Impacts and measurement variables included:
public education (number of students, daily attendance, number of school dis-
tricts, student commuting distance); health (accessibility to rural areas,
mobile clinics, patient travel distance, emergency services); postal service
(number of postal districts, transport and delivery routes and cost); library
services (circulation, bookmobiles, branch libraries); police protection
(additional demands for traffic services, manpower, state and local police
forces); fire protection (number of fires, accessibility); and location of
public facilities for the above services. It is suggested that increased
accessibility provided by highways has been a major contributing factor to
the revolutionary changes observed in all these areas in the last fifty years.
B-37. Stegman, Michael, "Accessibility Models and Residential Location," Journal of the
American Institute of Planners. Vol. 37, No. 2, March 1971, pp. 100-110.
A national survey of reasons for household location indicating that the most
frequently cited cause is a desire for more space. Other causes, in order
of frequency, are: desire to own a home; forced moves; desire for a lower-
cost alternative; improved housing quality; improved neighborhood quality;
move to a location more accessible to a job.
B-38. Thiel, Floyd, Allocating Social Costs of Highway Transportation, Prepared for Use
at the Sixth U.S.-Japan Transportation Research Panel Meeting in Tokyo,
May 15-16, 1973.
A discussion of the social costs (monetary and other) of highways experienced
by individuals relocated from highway right-of-way; individuals abutting
highways; and neighborhoods. Other social costs examined include land or
space used, poor mobility of those without cars, billboards or junkyards
along highways, and accident and control expenses. .The author suggests
methods to minimize such costs (e.g., increased land acquisition near highways,
increased community planning and participation).
B-39. Thiel, Floyd, "Indirect Effects of Highway Improvement," Highway Research Record.
Number 327, 1962.
A summary and overview of social and economic impacts of new highways and
highway improvements, primarily in metropolitan areas. Ten impact areas
are addressed generally: suburbanization, population mobility, residents'
attitudes, employment, public services, church activities, rural areas,
recreation, relocation, and transient services.
190
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B-40. Thomas, T. C., G. I. Thompson, T. E. Lisco and P. R. Stopher, "The Value of Time
for Commuting Motorists as a Function of Their Income Level and Amount of Time
Saved," Highway Research Record, Number 314, pp. 1-19, 1970.
An analysis of data collected by Stanford Research Institute to estimate the
value of travel time saved for commuting motorists as a function of their
income level and the amount of time- saved.
B-41. Thomas, T. C., G. I. Thompson, and S. Reichman, "Value of Time Saved by Trip
Purpose with Discussion and Closure," Highway Research Record, Number 369,
pp. 104-117, 1971.
A model to determine route and motorist characteristic variables having an
effect on the valuation of travel-time savings by motorists. Several trip
types are examined (personal, socio-recreational, vacation, school, and
work trips). Data included more than 4,000 responses in nine states from
motorists choosing between a toll route or a free route. Time saved and
Income were the most important variables, though these differ in importance -
for each trip purpose studied.
B-42. Ueberschaer, M. H., "Choice of Routes on Urban Networks for the Journey to Work,"
Highway Research Record. Number 369, pp. 228-238, 1971.
Description of a trip diversion model based on four factors (travel time,
distance, number of possible stops, and maximum lane volume). Factors
were derived from 13,000 driver interviews to determine daily route choice.
B-43. Wachs, Martin, "Basic Approaches to the Measurement of Community Values," Highway
Research Record, Number 305, 1970.
A discussion of measurements of community values in urban transportation.
Four basic techniques are suggested: 1) monitor individual behavior toward
the existing transportation systems, and infer a value structure from this
behavior; 2) monitor individual behavior in a gaming situation; 3) conduct
opinion surveys on existing transportation systems; and 4) survey opinions
and preferences toward a hypothetical transportation system.
B-44. Watson, P. L., "Problems Associated with the Time and Cost Data Used in Travel Choice
Modeling and Valuation of Time," Highway Research Record, Number 369, pp. 148-158,
1971.
Two hypotheses regarding model calibration are evaluated: 1) that choice
of travel mode relates to times and costs of the journey as perceived by
the traveler; and 2) that choice relates to expected times and costs of
the journey, for which measured data appears to be the best approximation
of expected values.
B45. Wheeler,.J. 0., "Transport Inputs and Residential Rent Theory: An Empirical Analysis,
Geographical Analysis. Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 43-54, January 1970.
An examination of the postulate that residence is selected to minimize work
trip costs using Tulsa, Oklahoma as a case study. Work trips in Tulsa
cannot be.explained by this postulate. The tendency to minimize work trips
191
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B-45. (Continued)
by residential selection varies directly with socioeconomic status as
suggested by residential rent theory.
B-46. Wildermuth, Bruno, The Effect of Transportation on Residential Location, Graduate
Report, Institute of Transportation and Traffic Engineering, University of
California, April 1964.
An examination of the relationships between transportation and decisions
for residential locations. The author addresses residential transportation
demands; cost measurement for various travel patterns; and the balance of
time and money costs of person movements.
B-47. Wilson, A. G., "The Use of Entropy Maximizing Models in the Theory of Trip Distribu-
tion, Mode Split -and Route Split," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy,
Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 108-126, January 1969.
A theoretical analysis and model of the relations of trip distribution to
modal split, modal split to route split, and of directly observed to perceived
costs. Empirical tests of the theory are suggested as a first step in develop-
ing a more accurate forecasting model.
B-48. Yapa, L., M. Polese and J. Wolpert, "Interdependencies of Commuting, Migration,
and Job Site Relocation," Economic Geography. Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 59-72,
January 1971.
An examination of the relation between commuting and migration behavior and
of the basis of this relation. A simple, four-region model is developed
to specify expected relations.
B-49. Zupan, J. M., "Model Choice: Implications for Planning," Highway Research Record.
Number 251, pp. 6-25, 1968.
A relation is developed between work trips and residential density (at both
ends of trip), rail service availability, relative automobile and rail trip
times, and toll and parking costs. The equation is a reasonable forecasting
tool for each of three income groups in New York City.
B-50. Hill, Stuart L., and B. Frankland, "Mobility as a Measure of Neighborhood," Highway
Research Record, Number 187, pp. 33-42, 1967.
An attempt to develop a quantitative measure of the. impact of highways on
community stability and cohesion. Neighborhood stability is assumed to be a
function of population turnover, home ownership and single family residences.
An index may be constructed from mobility characteristics (percent occupying
same residence for five or more years and percent of older buildings occupied
by same household throughout twenty years) and propensity to change (percent
single family dwellings and percent owner-occupied units) ; a simplified index
neglects occupancy characteristics of older buildings. The index presents some
data problems since neighborhood boundaries may shift over time. The index is
descriptive, not normative.
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. -Land Use and Land Value
C-01. Adkins, W. G., "Land Value Impacts of Expressways in Dallas, Houston, and
San Antonio, Texas," Highway Research Board. Bulletin 227, pp. 50-65, 1959.
A review of the findings and methodologies of three economic impact
studies dealing with land values as influenced by expressways from
1945 to 1957 in Houston (Gulf Freeway), Dallas (North Central Expressway),
and San Antonio (Expressway). The analyses are based on real estate sales
and utilize before/after and control area comparisons. Each case study is
summarized and data requirements and measurement techniques are specified.
It is suggested that land values are the best single indicator of economic
impact since nearly all effects of highways are eventually reflected in
land values.
C-02. Adkins, William G., J. E. Frierson, and R. H. Thompson, Farm Land Values and
Rural Road Service in Ellis County, Texas 1955-58. Texas Transportation
Institute, Texas A & M College, College Station, Texas, June 1960.
Relations between farm land values and quality of road service in Ellis
County, Texas are analyzed from data on 214 farms sold during 1955-58.
Analyses were conducted on land price, value of road type location,
correlation of land use and road type, and buyer characteristics. It
was found that land on paved roads was likely to be valued at a premium
over land on gravel roads; locations on gravel roads were in turn more
valuable than locations on dirt roads.
C-03. Ashley, R. H., and Berard, W. F., "Interchange Development Along 180 Miles of
1-94," Highway Research Record, Number 96, pp. 46-58, 1965.
A description of land development and value increases at 66 interchanges
along 180 miles of 1-94 in Michigan. The study found that commercial uses,
led by gas stations, predominated, with land values on the whole doubling,
but for filling stations, rising five-fold. However, no control areas were
used (except that gas stations further from interchanges were compared to
those nearer for daily pumpage) and no causal mechanisms were advanced.
C-04. Bahl, R. W., Jr., A Bluegrass Leapfrog, Bureau of Business Research, College of
Commerce, University of Kentucky, 1963.
A case study of "leapfrog" development in the suburbs of Lexington, Kentucky
based on analysis of differential costs of development (travel, utilities,
sewage, social services).
C-05. Barden, R., and J. H. Thompson, The Urban Frontier - Occasional Paper No. 4,
Syracuse University, Urban Transportation Institute, 1971. NTIS (PB-204-056).
Residential real estate values are examined as they reflect urban sprawl,
and reach a threshold at the "urban frontier." A model, applied to six
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C-05. (Continued)
areas in New York (Syracuse, Utica-Rome, Albany-Schenectady-Troy,
Rochester, Buffalo, and Binghampton) indicate three major factors in
urban growth: (1) highway accessibility; (2) pregrowth population
distribution; and (3) physical environmental characteristics.
C-06. Borchert, John R. , Beltline Commercial-Industrial Development - A. Case Study
in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, November 1960.
A comparative study of the physical development of land use with respect
to the existing and proposed beltline routes around the Twin Cities to
the west. The author analyzes the location of commercial and industrial
land development along the west segment of the old route, evaluates the
demand for similar land use along the new route, and discusses the study
findings in terms of planning implications and highway land acquisition
in urbanizing areas.
C-07. Brand, D., B. Barber, and M. Jacobs, "Technique for Relating Transportation
Improvements and Urban Development Patterns," Highway Research Record,
Number 207, pp. 53-67, 1967.
A description of the EMPIRIC land use forecasting model, with emphasis
on: (1) information on the relative and absolute effect of transportation
and community facility improvements on land use; and (2) results of EMPIRIC
model use for two urban regions using three data sets. The model formula-
tion, estimation of coefficients, and generalized equations reflecting
urban development patterns are discussed.
C-08. Carroll, Donald D., J. R. Borchert, J. Schwinder, and P. M. Raup, The Economic
Impact of Highway Development Upon Land Use and Value: Development of
Methodology and Analysis of Selected Highway Segments in Minnesota, University
of Minnesota, September 1958.
An examination of the process and causes of change in land use and value,
and of methods for analyzing growth patterns spatially and over time.
The study focuses on three highway segments in the Minneapolis area,
including a bypass highway, a feeder into the city, and a limited access
divided highway. Extensive use is made of aerial time series mapping.
The study emphasis is on methodology, with implications for further use
in impact analysis.
C-09. Cherner, M. , "Property Values as Affected by Highway Landscape Developments,"
Highway Research Record. Number 53, pp. 4-7, 1964.
An examination of land values and community attitudes toward radial express-
ways, primarily in the suburban areas of Chicago. Selected areas were of
mixed development densities, medium to high socio-economic levels, and
were located near radial expressways. An attitude survey of residents
showed a general willingness to purchase another home near an expressway
(64Z), and favorable views toward highway landscaping. These attitudes were
correlated with increased land value (100-500%), and increased apartment
rent levels.
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C-10. Cockfield, R. W. , "Proposed Logic Sequence for Designing Preliminary Urban
Land Use Plans," Highway Research Record, Number 399, pp. 62-70, 1972.
Formulation of a design concept which aggregates a system of required land
use activity into subsets subject to design restraints. Its potential
role in the evaluation of alternative preliminary land use plans is
described.
C-ll. Cribbins, P. D., W. T. Hill, and H. 0. Seagraves, "Economic Impact of Selected
Sections of Interstate Routes on Land Value and Use," Highway Research Record,
Number 75, pp. 1-31, 1965.
The economic effects of controlled-access facilities in North Carolina
on surrounding property values and development are assessed using a before
and after method and multiple regression analysis techniques for each study
period. Three sections of Interstate Routes 1-95, 1-40, and 1-85 in three
counties are examined. These roads are radial-interurban highway segments
in rural-urban fringe areas. Land values were examined as a function of:
parcel size; year of sale; vacant/non-vacant land use; rural-urban land use;
subdivision; roadside location (with respect to test facility); alternate
roadway location (with respect to other major routes); and three location
variables (straight-line distance to the central business district; to the
right-of-way; and to the nearest interchange).
C-12. Davis, J. Tait, "Parkways, Values and Development in the Washington Metropolitan
Region," Highway Researfch Record, Number 16, pp. 32-43, 1963.
Two parkways and one bypass highway in the Washington, B.C. metropolitan area
are examined from 1950 to 1961. Because of their dual function as commuter
and tourist roads, and because of extensive aesthetic emphasis in their
d^pign, land value and use patterns nro pr-bably unique. The purhways ohowcd
greater development and differing land uses than the highway. A factorial
model was developed to analyze reasons for these variations, using measures
of lot size, family income, size and condition of structure; results were
largely inconclusive.
C-13. Eighmy, T. H., and J. J. Coyle, Toward a Simulation of Land Use for Highway
Interchange Communities, Pennsylvania State University, 1965.
A proposed simulation model for predicting growth and development at
interchanges. An assumption is that interchange development exhibits a
pattern which is repetitive through time. Hypothetical examples of model
use are presented.
C-14. Evans, E. E., Impact of Kokomo By-Pass, 1950 to 1964, Purdue University, August
1965.
An analysis of the long-range effects of an urban bypass, with specific
reference to land use, land value, traffic volumes, travel times, and
accidents.
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C-15. Eyerly, R. W., Property Formation, Real Estate Value, and Land Use in Four
York County Interchange Communities: An Interim Report, Pennsylvania State
University, 1965.
An examination of land use and values within a two-mile radius of four
interchanges near York, Pennsylvania. Using tax record data, analysis
indicated that: (1) Interchange area land values increased less than in
surrounding areas; (2) interchanges nearest York showed the greatest land
value increase; and (3) land use changes were slight.
C-16. Flaherty, M. C. , "Commercial Highway Service Districts and the Interstate,"
Highway Research Record. Number 96, Washington, D. C., 1965.
A methodology for guiding land use development at highway interchanges
by relating traffic volume, interchange design, and user costs. It attempts
to specify how much land should be allocated for commercial use at inter-
changes .
C-17. Fleischman, E. R., The Impact After Seven Years of a Highway Improvement in a
Small City. Purdue University, 1968.
Examination of changes in land use, land value, travel time, traffic volume,
and accident rates after bridge construction. No control areas were used
for comparison.
C-18. Garrison, William L., and M. E. Marts, Influence of Highway Improvements on
Urban Land - A Graphic Summary, University of Washington, May 1958.
A survey of highway impact studies conducted befora 1958, and a graphic
O"erviw of sajor findings. Twelve studiss ^phasizing changas in land
values (New York, Texas, California, Illinois) and studies of bypass or
relocated highway impacts on business activity in fourteen towns in
California are summarized. Two analyses of traffic impact on land values
and business are also presented.
C-19. Goldberg, M., "Transportation, Urban Land Values, and Rents: A Synthesis,"
Land Economics, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 153-162, May 1970.
An investigation of the relation between transportation values, rents and
price elasticities of demand. It is suggested that a general improvement
In transportation will result in a decline in economic rents in the
aggregate, but not, necessarily, in real property and site rents.
C-20. Goldberg, M., "Economics of Transportation Corridors: Further Empirical Analysis,"
Highway Research Record, Number 410, pp. 37-51, 1972.
An examination of the economics of transportation corridors, particularly
of early and substantial land acquisition for highway construction, with
specific reference to the Vancouver, B. C. metropolitan area. A deflated
price index for 325 randomly selected properties during a 19-year period
shoved that the rate of appreciation of property was less than the 8%
opportunity cost of purchasing and holding. A rough estimate showed that
196
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C-20. (Continued)
rental of acquired property is balanced by lost taxes and operating and
maintenance expenses. However, a similar analysis for properties falling
within 0.1 mile of an existing freeway (Trans-Canada Highway) showed an
appreciation rate of 112 for land and 42 for land plus improvements.
C-21. Goldberg, M., "An Evaluation of the Interaction Between Urban Transport and
Land Use Systems," Land Economics, Vol. 48, pp. 338-346, 1972.
A discussion of the indirect effects of urban transportation systems on land
use and the spatial organization of the urban environment. A systems view
of the urban region is presented based on the assumptions that (1) land
values are determined by accessibility; (2) labor and capital are relatively
constant in an urban area; (3) density is a determinant of regional attrac-
tiveness; and (4) impacts are exhibited through changes in site rents.
C-22. Golden, J. S., "Land Values in Chicago: Before and After Expressway Construction,"
Chicago Area Transportation Study, 65 pp., October 1968.
An empirical investigation of the secondary benefits of expressway construc-
tion in Chicago using statistical techniques. Land values were higher in
test than in control areas with one exception. Land next to the expressways
did not always appreciate most in value.
C-23. Hamburg, J. R., G. J. Brown, and M. Schneider, "Impact of Transportation
Facilities on Land Development," Highway Research Record, Number 305, pp. 172-178,
1970.
A series of experiments with a model to explore the impact of centrality,
magnitude of growth, network speed, network density, and network geometry
on land development.
C-24. Hammel, L. V., K. C. Maffitt, and R. R. Roberts, "Transportation Considerations
of Regional Shopping Centers," Traffic Engineering, Inst. Traffic Engineering,
Vol. 42, No. 11, pp. 14-21, August 1972.
A study of the transportation considerations of regional shopping centers,
with specific focus on land development and traffic operations.
C-25. Harvey, Robert 0., and W. A. V. Clark, "The Nature and Economics of Urban Sprawl,"
Land Economics, Vol. 71, pp. 1-9, February 1965.
Urban sprawl is described as an economic phenomenon resulting from uncoor-
dinated investment decisions of developers in the free market. Common land
regulation practices, which leave outlying areas uncontrolled, and trans-
portation improvements contribute to sprawl. The authors contend that
sprawl is not necessarily an adverse phenomenon, that it is dynamic in
character, and that it places an economic burden on the population only
if accompanied by poor public planning.
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C-26. Huhtanen, Robert J., et al., A Study of the Effects of Freeways on Central
Business Districts, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts, February 1961.
An analysts of the effects of expressways on central business districts
In terms of changes in land use, land value, access, and travel patterns.
Three case study areas are examined (Richmond, Virginia, and Long Beach
and Oakland, California), and the author uses land use mapping techniques
for impact analysis.
C-27. Isard, W., and P. Liossatos, "On Location Analysis for Urban and Regional
Growth Situations," Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-27,
June 1972.
A model addressing the dynamics of changing spatial patterns and processes
over time. Analysis is based on the location of major facilities, new
industrial districts, new shopping centers, new towns, new parks, and open
spaces.
C-28. Isibor, E. I., Modeling the Impact of Highway Improvements on the Value of
Adjacent Land Parcels, Purdue University, Indiana State Highway Commission,
1970.
A step wise, multiple linear regression procedure to account for land value
increases following highway construction. Important variables are type of
highway, type of land use, and location of parcel.
C-29. Kentucky, University of, The Effect of the Louisville Watterson Expressway on
Land Use and Lard Values. Lexington, Kentucky, 1960.
An analysis of the effects of the Louisville Watterson Expressway on land
use and land value, using three time periods (pre-construction, during
construction, and post-construction) and control area comparisons where
possible. The expressway, a four-lane, limited access facility bordering
Louisville on the south, was opened in 1956.
C-30. Kentucky, University of, Bureau of Business Research, College of Commerce,
Certain Economic Effects of the Lexington Northern Beltline, Lexington,
Kentucky, 1960.
An appraisal of the impact on land use and values of a 6-mile free-access
bypass, built primarily for the relief of traffic congestion in downtown
Lexington, Kentucky. The influence of the highway facility was derived by
comparing the actual land use in the area presumably affected by the highway
with the probable land use in the absence of the highway. Land value, land
use, and case studies and surveys of commercial and industrial establishments
on and off the beltline were studied. Changes in land use were considerable -
mainly changes to industrial and commercial use from other uses and were
accompanied by significant changes in land values.
C-31. Lehr, R. L. , Relationship of the Highway Interchange and the Use of Land in the
State of Oklahoma, Oklahoma Center of Urban and Regional Studies, June 1965.
NTIS (PB-172-988).
A two-part study including: a literature review on land use determinants,
urban land use patterns, and industrial location theory; and case studies of
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C-31. (Continued)
five intersections at grade, twenty-two interchanges, and four highway
segments. Findings include: (1) interchanges attract multi-family housing,
if the area is already suitable for residential construction; and (2) develop-
ment of highway-oriented establishments is generally related to distance to
the nearest urban area.
C-32. Lemly, J. H., "Changes in Land Values Along Atlanta's Expressway," Highway
Research Board, Bulletin 227, pp. 1-20, 1959.
Examines changes in land use and values from 1941 to 1956 along a 7.5-mile
segment of Atlanta's Northeast Expressway. Areas are characterized in terms
of distance from the central business district; distance from the expressway;
and accessibility to the expressway. Indicator variables are property sales
and prices. Comparisons are made to control areas located in southern
Atlanta.
C-33. Lemly, J. H., Expressway Influence on Land Use and Value, Atlanta 1941-1956,
Georgia State College, School of Business Administration, Bureau of Business
and Economic Research, 1958.
An evaluation of the impacts of Atlanta's Northeast Expressway (an infrequent
access, radial highway) on land use and value. The affected area has a
manufacturing-based economy and high density development. Comparisons are
made between study areas (near the expressway) and control areas (equidistant
from the central business district, but not near the expressway). Control
areas remained largely residential, while study areas shbwed large increases
in commercial and -industrial land use, and land values. Streets in the study
area, previously used for radial access, showed large decreases in overall
traffic leads, but i=rga increases ir. cocscrcial truffle.
C-34. Lewis, J. E. , "Transportation Theory of Urban Land Rent," Right of Way. Vol. 9,
No. 2, pp. 23-28, April 1972.
A discussion of the hypothesis that site rents of urban land are composed of,
and are equal to, the savings in transportation costs afforded by one location
over another. Transportation improvements and population density changes
are viewed as causes of rent level locational shifts. The author suggests
additional empirical research.
C-35. Long, G. A., G. D. Long, and R. W. Hooker, A Corridor Land .Use Study; The Impact
of an Interstate Highway on Land Use Values, Private Investment and Land Use
in Southwestern Wyoming, Wyoming University, FHWA, October 1972.
Land use surveys to assess economic impacts of an Interstate Highway (1-80)
on a transportation corridor in southwestern Wyoming (including both cities
and small towns). Redistribution of land values, land rents, and intensities
of land use from the CBD's to the city peripheries was the most significant
impact to date.
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C-36. Massachusetts Department of Commerce and Development, Future Development of
Eastern Massachusetts Route 495 and Fringe Area, 1963 and 1975-1990. Boston,
Massachusetts, 1967.
An examination of the impact of highway development in Eastern Massachusetts,
with specific reference to Route 495, a circumferential highway passing
through urban and rural areas and connecting with several radial highways
originating in Boston. The impact on 42 communities adjacent to Route 495
is examined using the EMPIRIC land use forecasting model. Impacts of two
alternative highway plans are examined based on two growth patterns: a
"composite" pattern which assumes that the City of Boston will remain
dominant and that development will occur near three main radial sectors
from the city; and a "controlled dispersal" pattern which assumes a more
or less uniform, low-density population distribution throughout the region.
C-37. Milgram,.Grace, The City Expands: A Study of the Conversion of Land from Rural
to Urban Use. Philadelphia 1945-1962. University of Pennsylvania, Institute for
Environmental Studies, March 1967.
An empirical study of the rise in price of vacant land and its relationship
to time-distance to the central business district, proximity to public
transportation, and availability of sewers over an 18-year period in a
section of Philadelphia. Other factors, such as degree of development of
vacant land, its potential uses, and the type of buyer and seller also
influenced price.
C-38. Neuzil, D. R., The Highway Interchange Problem: Land Use Development and Control,
University of California, Berkeley, Calif., 1963.
An analysis of problems created by land development in the vicinity of
highway 1nterch3rl£'1.<' -i.n suburban and semi-rural settirgs. Impact analysis
includes land use, land values, types of development, traffic congestion,
and hypothetical political/legal control mechanisms.
C-39. Northern Virginia Regional Planning and Economic Development Commission, Highway
Influence, Northern Virginia Region, Arlington, Virginia, July 1962.
A study of areas in Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William Counties affected
by planned Routes 66, 495, and 95 (all Interstate Highways) and by the
new highway providing access to Dulles Airport. This is a "before" study
which attempts to analyze current land use and estimate probable changes
resulting from the new highways.
C-AO. 0'Flaherty, C. A., "People, Transport Systems, and the Urban Scene: An Overview -
I," Intl. J. Environmental Studies. Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 265-285, July 1972.
A discussion of the relationship between quality of life in urban areas, and
long-term landuse and transport developments. Summaries of urban transport
to date with specific emphasis on automobile use, and future transportation
development in towns are presented.
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C-41. Oklahoma, University of, Research Institute, The Relationship of the Highway
Interchange and the Use of Land in the State of Oklahoma, Volumes I and II,
Oklahoma Center of Urban and Regional Studies, 1965.
Volume I includes a discussion of land use determinants and decision
making; the use of land and the urban pattern; and traffic generation and
congestion. Volume II is an investigation of changes in land use at inter-
change locations on 1-35 in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area, and on
1-44 in the Tulsa Metropolitan Area.
C-42. Pendleton, W. C., "Relation of Highway Accessibility to Urban Real Estate
Values," Highway Research Record. Number 16, pp. 14-23, 1963.
An examination of a radial, infrequent access highway in the Washington, DtC.
area. A main hypothesis is that short-run route choices of drivers, long-run
residential location decisions and highway building programs of public
agencies operate together to equalize the accessibility structure of the
city in terms of both direction and distance. Regression analysis is used
to examine correlations between job accessibility and distance to CBD;
driving time and distance to CBD; proportion of job trips and driving
distance to CBD; and housing prices and job accessibility and driving time
and distance to CBD. The analysis showed that sales prices set in the urban
real estate market reflect accessibility differences and that sales data
can be used to estimate accessibility values.
C-43. Philbrick, Allen, Analyses of the Geographical Patterns of Gross Land Uses and
Changes in Numbers of Structures in Relation to Major Highways in the Lower
Half of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Michigan State University, 1961.
The expansion of urban land uses and structures was related to the
pnffem of hA'hvay developEent in the Lower Peninsula area of Michigan
by comparative mapping techniques. Gross land use changes over time were
evaluated, and urban land uses correlated with distance from highways and
distance from urban centers. Farm and non-farm dwelling units were also
examined by mapping techniques. Ten dispersed city regions were identified
and spatially related to a "web of highway impact" area.
C-44. Rockey, Melvin B., and J. C. Frey, Farms and New Highways: Problems and Adjust-
ments, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, 1964.
Identification of impacts of a limited-access highway on farm operations,
based primarily on interviews with sixty York County, Pa. farmers whose
farms abutted a 38-mile segment of Interstate 83. Variables addressed
included: land use changes; compensation mechanisms for land and buildings
taken for the highway; adjustments by farmers after highway construction;
and general attitudes of farmers toward compensation, highway location, and
the negotiation process. Results showed that the most significant problem
was physical separation of farms by the highway.
C-45. Rogers, Andrei, The Time Lag of Factors Influencing Land Development, (in collabora-
tion with F. S. Chapin, Jr., T. G. Donnelly, and S. F. Weiss), Institute for
Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C.
October 1963.
Analysis of the time lag of primary factors as they act together to structure
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C-45. (Continued)
spatial distribution of urban activities. The City of Greensboro, N.C.
was the study area. Six key independent variables influencing land
development are examined over a 12-year study period (1948-1960). The
two most statistically significant independent variables ('accessibility to
work areas' and 'distance to nearest elementary school') had lag times
between 3 and 6 years.
C-46. Sauerlender, 0. H., and R. B. Donaldson, Predicting Development at Non-Urban
Interchange Sites on Pennsylvania Interstate Highways, Pennsylvania State
University, 1965.
A model for predicting growth in interchange areas in Pennsylvania
communities, based on thirteen selected variables (including average
daily traffic, topography, distance to urban area, and percent county
population change).
C-47. Schmidt, Elaine G., Delaware Highway Impact Study, Phase II Report (1959-1963),
Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Delaware, 1967.
A study of the impact of Interstate Highways on New Castle County, Delaware.
Land Use and land values are examined during pre-, in-, and post-construction
using comparisons to control areas. Impacts during the construction period
are initially negative; however, they are followed by upgrading of residences
and location of new commercial establishments. The author concludes that
the Interstate System will cause general economic activity enhancement within
the state, an appreciation of land values, intensification of land use, and
in the long run, an expanded tax base.
C-48. Schneider, M., "The Access and Development Prototype Project," Highway Research
Record. Number 293, pp. 147-154, 1969.
A summary of an attempt to develop quantitative relations among travel,
land development, and time and cost characteristics of transportation.
C-49. Spears, J. D., and C. G. Smith, A Study of the Land Development and Utilization
in Interchange Areas Adjacent to Interstate 40 in Tennessee, Tennessee
University, Tennessee Department of Highways, 1970.
An examination of land development (value and use) at 59 interchanges on
1-40 between Memphis and Knoxville, Tennessee. Land development depended
on local population density, demographic trends, land availability, secondary
road characteristics, and suburbanization-industrialization patterns.
C-50. Stein, Martin, "Highway Interchange Area Development - Some Recent Findings,"
Public Roads. Vol. 35, No. 11, pp. 241-251, December 1969.
An evaluation of the development of areas surrounding highway interchanges
and an attempt to relate types of land use to types of intersecting facilities.
Using data on 316 interchanges in 16 states from 1960 to 1967, the study shows
that development near interchanges depends on both the kind of intersecting
highway and on the quadrant of the interchange. Further, rural interchanges
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C-50. (Continued)
are developed almost exclusively by highway-oriented businesses (service
stations, motels, and restaurants) while suburban interchanges show rapid
growth of apartment buildings, churches, schools, shopping centers, and
industrial parks. The report also reviews a number of efforts to develop
models for predicting interchange development using several statistical
approaches.
C-51. Stern, M. 0., "A Planning Model for Transportation in Urban Activity Centers,"
Highway Research Record, Number 367, pp. 99-106, 1971.
A planning model for transportation- in dense, specialized urban activity
centers such as the central business district in central cities.. The
described model (a non-linear, statistical model) allows testing of new
policies, land uses, and technological alternatives, and is used for
predicting traffic patterns.
C-52. Swerdloff, C. N., and J. R. Stowers, "A Test of Some First Generation Residential
Land Use Models," Highway Research Record, Number 126, pp. 38-59, 1966.
A comparative evaluation of five operational residential land use fore-
casting techniques. Included are: (1) the density-saturation gradient
method; (2) accessibility model; (3) regression; (4) and (5) two inter-
vening opportunity models. All conditions were held constant except the
interrelationships between variables, and differences among results
are discussed.
C-53. Thiel, Floyd I., "Highway Interchange Area Development," Highway Research
Record, Number 96, pp. 24-45, 1965.
A discussion of congestion induced by intensive development at highway
interchange locations. Possible land use controls to ameliorate this
problem are suggested and local and state action to guide such develop-
ment is supported. A summary of additional needed research on this
subject is included.
C-54. Walsh, S. P., "Some Effects of Limited Access Highways on Adjacent Land Use,"
Highway Research Record, Number 229, 1968.
A proposal for various large scale residential, commercial, and public
land uses near freeways based on quick access to urban areas, labor supply,
larger market areas, central distribution of supplies, and advertising
value.
C-55. Wootan, C. V., and C. R. Haning, Changes in Land Value, Land Use, and Business
Activity Along a Section of the Interstate Highway System in Austin, Texas,
Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A & M College, College Station, Texas,
1960.
Examination of land use, land value, and business activity along a 5-mile
section of Interstate U.S.-81 (a four-lane, divided highway in Austin, Tx.)
during 1941-1948 (preconstruction), 1949-1953 (land purchase and construction),
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C-55. (Continued)
and 1954-1957 (post-construction). Substantially greater changes in land
value were observed in the study area than in control areas. Land values
in the study area were related to changes in land use and distance from
downtown area. Overall business volumes were unchanged from 1953 to 1957,
but individual businesses were affected to varying degrees by traffic
flows.
C-56. Worral, R. D., "Census Data, Land Use, and Transportation Modeling," Highway
Research Board Special Reports, No. 121, pp. 63-67, 1971.
Land use modeling, travel forecasting, impact analysis, and data maintenance
and updating are discussed.
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I. HIGHWAYS
D. Political-Legal
D-01. Bishop, A. Bruce, et al., Socio-Economic and Community Factors in Planning
Urban Freeways, 1969. NTIS (PB-190-544).
An examination of urban freeways and of the planning process as it involves
groups and individuals affected by freeways. Specific reference is made
to the California freeways, but the conclusions are generally applicable.
The report addresses four areas: 1) freeway planning as a process of social
change; 2) attitudes and interactions of interest groups; 3} identification
of social and economic factors in the planning process; and 4) definition
of a method for comparing and evaluating user benefits and community impacts.
A model for decision-making is also described.
D-02. Colcord, F. C. , Urban Transportation Decision Making: Houston, A Case Study,
1970. NTIS (PB-206-224).
A case study of urban transportation decision-making in Houston, Texas.
Major exogenous factors discussed include: absence of intergovernmental
disputes; limited opposition to highway construction because of high degree
of car ownership; good bus service; absence of downtown traffic congestion
and adequate downtown parking. A large amount of highway construction during
the 1960's channeled growth along the lines of transportation access and
minimized neighborhood displacement in subsequent highway development.
D-03. Courtney, J. F., T. D. Klastorin, and T. W. Ruefli, "Goal Programming Approach
to Urban-Suburban Location Preferences," Management Science, Vol. 18, No. 6,
pp. B-258 - B-268, February 1972.
An analytic model 'to examine population location in a metropolitan area,
designed for use in urban planning, real estate development, and transportation
system design.
D-04. Coyle, J. J., et al., "Interchange Protection and Community Structures," Highway
Research Record, Number 75, pp. 62-74, 1965.
A discussion of the relationship between community structure, land use policy,
trip generation, highway congestion, and highway protection.
D-05. Fielding, Gordon J., "Structuring Citizen Involvement in Freeway Planning," Highway
Research Record, Number 380, pp. 23-36, 1972.
A value analysis of social, aesthetic, economic, and design considerations in
urban highway planning, as an aid for structuring community evaluation of
alternative freeway corridors. A Los Angeles community case study is dis-
cussed, involving weighting of community goals (based on opinion surveys,
discussions with elected officials, etc.), and a community-planners program
of cooperation is described. Methods for evaluating and politically reconciling
differences among impacted groups are described.
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D-06. Hebert, ft., Highways to Nowhere; The Politics of City Transportation,
Bobbs-Merrill Company, Inc., New York, 1972.
An informal account of the effect of highways on urban centers, based on
five "case studies" (Flint, Michigan; Dayton, Ohio; Indianapolis, Indiana;
Atlanta, Georgia; and Washington, D. C.). It is suggested that while the
automobile may not be destroying the urban cores singlehandedly, it is
certainly dealing them a cruel.blow.
D-07. Hill, Morris, "A Method for the Evaluation of Transportation Plans," Highway
Research Record, Number 180, pp. 21-34, 1967.
A goals-achievement matrix for analyzing transportation objectives.
Community goals and alternatives for achieving these goals are identified,
based on: (1) goal statements in abstract terms (e.g. , increased economic
welfare); (2) stated objectives (e.g., increase resource utilization);
(3) policies (e.g., highway design standards); and (4) constraints (e.g., time).
These four categories form the dimensions of the proposed matrix. A set of
indicator variables (demographic, business, and land use) is suggested and
quantified where possible.
D-08. Hill, Stuart, "Watts-Century Freeway," Highway Research Board, Special Report,
No. 105, pp. 117-122, 1969.
A description of the planning process used in Los Angeles for the Watts-
Century Freeway. The relevant area is of high density and low socio-economic
level, consists mainly of single-f^nily dwellings, and has a. predcniir.sritly
black population. Emphasis is on the interaction "of highway planners and
the community; consideration of community values; and the potential of the
Freeway to provide positive economic opportunities to the area.
D-09. Journal Urban Transportation Corporation, Urban Transportation Planning - Sources of
Information on Urban Transportation. Report No. 4, June 1968. NTIS (PB-185-525).
A review of procedures followed in a comprehensive urban transportation
planning process, including a history of its development, trip generation,
trip distribution methods, traffic assignment techniques, modal split
determination, economic forecasting, and plan implementation problems.
D-10. Lupo, Alan, et al., Rites of Way: The Politics of Transportation in Boston and
the U.S. City. Little, Brown & Company, Boston, Massachusetts, 1971.
An account of expected social impacts and of public protest over planned
Interstate construction in the Boston area, and a discussion of general
trends in transportation planning and practices throughout the nation.
The social effects addressed are land taking and aesthetics. One appendix
contains a critique of the EMPIRIC land use forecasting model.
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D-ll. M.I.T. Urban Systems Laboratory, Community Values in Highway Location and Design,
(Report No. 71-5), December 1971.
An approach to incorporating social and environmental factors into the
highway planning process. Specific 'areas addressed include: the
democratic basis for decision-making; highway planning and design as
a socio-political process; the optimal process for choice when values
are in conflict; and the role of the highway professionals in the
planning process.
D-12. M.I.T. Urban Systems Laboratory, The Impact of Highways Upon Environmental Values.
(Report No. USL-69-1), March 1969.
This Phase I report of a National Cooperative Highway Research Program
describes an impact matrix for evaluating highway impacts on groups and
individuals, and outlines a proposed program for further research.
D-13. Petersilia, Michael P., Community and Environmental Factors in Highway Location:
A Case Study. M.S. Thesis (C.E.), 1972.
An assessment, based on the Urban Systems Laboratory (M.I.T.) approach, of
Route 90, a 40-mile, 10-lane, radial highway in Los Angeles. The area has
a low to medium socio-economic level with a manufacturing-commercial base.
Impacts noted include: employment, induced infrastructure investment,
racial distribution, land development, community cohesion, aesthetics, and
taxes. A program for community/highway planner cooperation is presented.
D-14. Pikarsky, Milton, "Comprehensive Planning for the Chicago Crosstown Expressway,"
Highway Research Record, Number 180, pp. 35-51, 1967.
An examination of the planning process and of possible impacts for
Chicago's Crosstown Expressway, a circumferential highway connecting
the radial highway system. Impacts were addressed from three viewpoints:
engineering, community, and land use changes. Seven alternative routes
were considered on the basis of meeting criteria in each evaluation
category. The eventual route location would not have been selected if
the choice were based on engineering grounds alone.
D-15. Real Estate Research Corporation, A Study of the Impact of Major Highways on Local
Tax Bases, prepared for the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Public Roads,
1960.
Examination of the effect of multi-lane, limited access highways on assessment,
zoning, and taxing practices in Cook County, 111. and Frederick County, Md.
from approximately 1950 to 1960. These data, together with information
provided from a questionnaire survey of assessing officials across the country,
suggest that highways enlarge the tax base of larger metropolitan areas (pro-
vided undeveloped land is available) to a greater extent than for small cities;
that taxing jurisdictions in the western and southern regions of the country
benefit more by highways; and that special purpose highways have limited impact
on the local tax base of jurisdictions they traverse.
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D-16. Rogers, A. C., "The Urban Freeway: An Experiment in Team Design and Decision-
Making," Highway Research Record. Number 220, pp. 20-28, 1968.
Highway planning problems in relation to a comprehensive urban transportation
design policy. Cited deficiencies of highway planning include: highways are
designed to serve users without considering communities and non-users affected
by them; highways compete with, rather than complement, other transport modes.
The renewal of downtown Cincinnati in 1963, and the Interstate Freeway System
in Baltimore, Maryland, are cited as examples of comprehensive planning efforts.
A team approach to design and decision-making and a national design policy are
recommended.
D-17. Rothblatt, Donald H., Regional Planning: The Appalachian Experience, D. C. Heath
and Company, Lexington, Massachusetts, 1971.
An historical review of the formation of the Appalachian Regional Commission,
its program development and performance during its first three years (1965-1968),
and of highway development as a major program focus in the region.
D-18. Scheiber, W. A., The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, National
Academy of Engineering, October 1973.
A description of the national capital region, and characteristics of the
Council of Governments. Unique problems in urban transportation are
identified: (1) federal interest in decision-making; (2) conflict of
local needs and federal dollars available; (3) conflict of city center
and suburban goals; (4) diffusion of responsibility for transportation
plannics; an'd (3) the transportation impacts of land use decisions.
D-19. Tennessee State Planning Commission, Highway Access Areas in Tennessee; A Study
of Problems and a Suggested Program for Orderly Land Use Development, Publication
No. 321, Nashville, Tennessee, 1962.
Addresses different types of interchanges and common practices in land
development around them with specific reference to the planned Tennessee
Interstate System. Main concerns are planning alternatives and legal
mechanisms.
D-20. Teska, R. B., "Social, Economic, and Environmental Impacts of a System of High-
Accessibility Corridors," Highway Research Record, Number 356, pp. 119-129, 1971.
A definition of criteria to be met by transportation corridors in Chicago,
with specific reference to the objectives outlined in the 1966 comprehensive
city plan. Criteria include: incorporation of public and private transporta-
tion facilities; corridor land uses; functional and environmental relationships
between transportation and land use; and integration of all high-accessibility
corridors in a total system concept.
D-21. Tuzo, G. C., The Evolution of the D. C. Highway System, Consortium of University,
Urban Transportation Center, June 1971. NTIS (PB-204-935).
An historical review of transportation artery development in the Washington,
D. C. area and projected demands through the 1990's. Demands for streets
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D-21. (Continued)
and highways generated by the introduction of the automobile and mass
transit, and development growth patterns are traced. Four alternative
plans for growth considered in the early 1900's are presented (planned
sprawl, dispersed cities, peripheral communities, and radial corridor
development). Rail rapid transit scheduled for completion before 1980
is discussed, and its role in radial growth is examined.
D-22. Wade, Philip E., Highway Impact Analysis as a Basis for Project Implementation,
M.I.T., M.S. Thesis (C.E.), February 1971.
A framework for impact evaluation based on the M.I.T. (Urban Systems
Laboratory) "interactive" planning approach. The author summarizes the
evolution of highway planning since the 1950's, (highway needs approach;
network analysis or community development; and interactive planning
approach). Six categories of impacted community elements are defined:
the public as highway user; the public as resident; the community at
large; government agencies; business and industry; and rural interests.
D-23. Washington State University, Highway Research Section, A Study of the Social.
Economic and Environmental Impact of Highway Transportation Facilities on
Urban Communities, 1968. NTIS (PB-197-626).
Development of a set of procedures and a desirability rating system for use
in the location and design of freeways in urban settings. Major areas of
concern are design, sociological, and neighborhood economic considerations,
an
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II. MASS TRANSIT
01. Allen, W. B., Developing and Testing of a Behavioral Modal Split Model, 1971.
NTIS (PB-204-941).
An examination of mass transportation using a behavioral model to address:
1) the relationship between attractiveness of different transportation modes
and their attributes; 2) principal determinants of modal choice (experience
and habit); and 3) aspects of car ownership. A user profile includes
Income, age structure, racial distribution, and sex characteristics.
02. Ashford, N. and F. M. Halloway, The Effect pf Age on Urban Travel Behavior- (Report
No, 1). Florida State University Transportation Center, June 1970. NTIS (PB-196-843).
A quantitative analysis of the effect of age on urban travel, using six cities
of varying geographic location and population size for case study. Travel
parameters (3 modes of transportation; 5 trip purposes) were correlated with
socio-economic variables by regression models. Large variations in travel
behavior and demand among age levels are indicated.
03. Bailey, R. F. , The Travel Patterns of Persons Residing in High-Density Urban Areas.
Polytechnic Institute Brooklyn, J-.me 1972. NTIS (P2-207-179).
A model to project transportation requirements of high-density area residents.
Results of a survey of the Coney Island section of Brooklyn, of regression
analyses of the data, and of an expansion procedure for applying sample data
to larger areas are given.
04. Barnes, C. W., Who Rides the Bus? Passenger Characteristics and Riding Patterns of
the Sacramento Transit Authority. 1970. NTIS (PB-197-821).
A study to determine who rides Sacramento buses (6 to 9 A.M.) and why (on week-
days). Data examined includes: 1) sociological characteristics of passengers;
2) passenger origins and destinations; 3) riding patterns; 4) choice and
capatlve riders; and 5) association of household income with passenger char-
acteristics and riding patterns. A user profile is developed based on income,
employment, age, racial distribution, and sex characteristics.
05. Boyce, D. E., "Notes on the Methodology of Urban Transportation Impact Analysis,"
Highway Research Board Special Reports, No. Ill, pp. 41-44, 1970.
A critique of methodology used in urban transportation impact studies involving
before-and-after measurements and control areas. Suggestions are made for an
improved methodology. An example (Philadelphia-Lindenwold Rapid Transit Line)
of application of the new technique illustrates the suggested use of control
and replication concepts.
210
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06. Boyce, D. E. , B. Allen, R. R. Mudge, P. B. Slater, and A. M. Issennan, Impact of
Rapid Transit on Suburban Residential Property Values and Land Development.
Pennsylvania University, Regional Science Department, Wharton School, Nov. 1972.
A phase one summary report of impacts on residential property values caused
by the Lindenwold transit line (operating since February 1969 between
Philadelphia and New Jersey suburbs). Using real estate transaction and
property characteristics data, case studies of land development policies
and analysis of pub'lic finance, impact areas are identified. The authors'
conclusions support the theory that travel cost time savings stemming from
line use are reflected in the prices of residential housing.
07. California Business & Transportation Agency, Transportation-Employment Project ,
January 1970. NTIS (PB-208-119) .
A test of the assumption that increased public transportation service can
improve employment opportunities for residents of a disadvantaged area.
Bus service was provided between south central Los Angeles and a major
employment center outside that area. Findings showed that while improved
transit increases the chances of obtaining work, in general it does not
enable the poor to participate in the highly formalized and competitive
job market; jobs made available to residents of the study area were generally
low-paying and at great distance so that even bus transit costs were prohibitive.
08. Carlin, Alan and Wohl, Martin, An Economic Re-Evaluation of the Proposed Los Angeles
Rapid Transit System. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California, (Paper P-3918) , 1968.
o«,t-,.'-(.,i ~e = ~,-,.,~_-f ~ i..^*if i ....* ,.,._.. ,.i v.- o~. ,..»,,__ r-.-Mf---'- D=^JJ
«t«.**l»te ~M*. v *. >~U^..WMa.*- J Whrf *. -I. -».*.».& *.*..* f*. ww wl.*. s. t*j wfUbtibZ.! \*i.«.I.£ v*. »..^u *Uif* -fe«~
Transit District for rail rapid transit system for Los Angeles.
09. Colcord, F. C. , Urban Transportation Decision Making! Houston. A Case Study. 1970.
NTIS (PB-206-224) .
A case study of urban transportation decision-making in Houston, Texas. Major
exogenous factors discussed include: absence of intergovernmental disputes;
limited opposition to highway construction because of high degree of car
ownership; good bus service; absence of downtown traffic congestion and
adequate downtown parking. A large amount of highway construction during
the 1960's channeled growth along the lines of transportation access and
minimized neighborhood displacement in subsequent highway development.
10. Cooper, E., Methods of Improving Transportation Facilities for Inner-City Dwellers.
Howard University, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-095) .
An examination of methods for providing transportation services to inner-city
residents and equality of access to employment, recreational, and other urban
opportunities. Proposed case studies in Washington, Nashville, and New York
will test the results of a previous study of New York City low-income residents
on origin-destination; car ownership; and access to opportunities. The author
contends that integrated planning of transportation and urban development is
necessary; and that the government should assist inner-city dwellers in achiev-
ing mobility (e.g., subsidization of private personal vnh.cles).
211
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11. Cort, C. J., "The Evaluation of Travelling Time," Journal of Transport Economics
and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 279-286, September 1969.
A summary of theoretical problems and of data problems in treating reduction
of travel times brought about by investment in transportation.
12. Davis, Frederick W., "Proximity to a Rapid Transit Station as a Factor in Residential
Property Value," The Appraisal Journal. Vol. 38, pp. 554-572, October 1970.
A detailed study of a proposed Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) station site
in San Francisco to predict property value and land use changes. A comparative
analysis of four areas situated at varying distances from the site indicated
property values were greater nearer the subway site. Anticipated population
growth, increasing residential property values, and increasing demand for
commercial office space are discussed for the four areas.
13. Falcocchio, J., Modal Choices and Travel Attributes of the Inner-City Poor, Poly-
technic Institute Brooklyn, September 1971. OTIS (PB-206-149).
A profile of inner city residents and their travel habits. Residents are
disaggregated by race, age, household size, median income, occupation,
automobile ownership, trips per household, trip purpose, and modal split.
Data show that most inner city residents travel less, have less modal choice,
less mobility and reduced opportunities for all trip purposes.
14. Gannon, Colin A., et al., The Impact of Rail Rapid Transit Systems on Commercial
Office Development; The Case of the Philadelphia Lindenwold Speedline, University
of Pennsylvania, June 1972.
A preliminary analysis of the impact of the Philadelphia-Llndenwold Speedline
on commercial development and the real estate market for commercial office
space. The economic spatial structure and growth of the Philadelphia metro-
politan region, the nature of the commercial office real estate market, and
local development trends are described.
15. Oilman, W. C. & Company, The Radial Express and Suburban Crosstown Bus Rider - Final
Report, 1966. NTIS (PB-174-220).
Evaluation of a St. Louis bus demonstration project. Seven new radial express
bus routes were established and operated for one year between residential
suburban areas and the St. Louis central business district; and new, direct
cfoss county bus service connections were provided between two rapidly develop-
ing commercial centers.
16. Greytak, D., Residential Segregation, Metropolitan Decentralization of the Journey
to Work - Occasional Paper No. 3, Syracuse University, Urban Transportation
Institute, July 1970. NTIS (PB-196-904).
An examination of the spatial redistribution of trade and manufacturing
activities in urban areas. The concentration of professional jobs in the
CBD and the migration of the skilled labor force to suburban residences;
and the concentration of non-white residences in the central cities while
212
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16. (Continued)
unskilled manufacturing and trade job opportunities move away from the central
city are discussed, and housing segregation is viewed as a significant factor
in shaping these trends.
17. Gutowsky, A. R. , A Model for Predicting Transit Ridership (Interim Report No. 7),
April 1971. NTIS (PB-199-553).
A description of a model to predict ridership on an urban transit system.
Independent variables used to generate transit demand are household char-
acteristics and the characteristics of available transit modes (automobile
and bus transit). Three factors were found to affect ridership levels
household income, household size, and the travel time difference between
auto and public transit.
18. Hamburg, J. R,, G. J. Brown and M. Schneider, "Impact of Transportation Facilities
on Land Development," Highway Research Record. Number 305, pp. 172-178, 1970.
A series of experiments with a model to explore the impact of centrality,
magnitude of growth, network speed, network density, and network geometry
on land development.
19. Heenan, G. Warren, "The Economic Effect of Rapid Transit on Real Estate Development,"
The Appraisal Journal. Vol. 36, pp. 213-224, April 1968.
Analyses the relationship between mass transportation and metropolitan growth,
with specific reference to the Toronto area. Impacts discussed include:
employment, per capita construction expenditures, transportation choice, use
of public services, land use, aesthetics, and political/legal aspects. The
primary focus is on real estate values and land use indices for describing
impacts of the mass transit system.
20. Highway Research Board Special Reports. No. Ill, pp. 50-53, 1970, "General Discussion
of the Impact of the Bay Area Rapid Transit System on the San Francisco Metro-
politan Region."
A discussion by a number of observers on measuring and forecasting relations
between transportation, housing location decisions, and land value changes.
21. Journal Urban Transportation Corp., Urban Transportation Planning-Sources of
Information on Urban Transportation. Report No. 4. June 1968. NTIS (PB-185-525).
A review of procedures followed in a comprehensive urban transportation
planning process, including a history of its development, trip generation,
trip distribution methods, traffic assignment techniques, modal split
determination, economic forecasting, and plan implementation problems.
22. Kalachek, E. D. and M. M. Goering, Transportation and Central City Unemployment.
Washington University, St. Louis, March 1970. NTIS (PB-192-493).
A refutation of the theory that lack of adequate transportation deprives
inner city residents of the mobility required to obtain jobs. The study
213
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22. (Continued)
includes data for St. Louis on location of employment and residences in 1960;
Job hunting patterns; Job tenure; and a survey of suburban manufacturing
plants.
23. Kasoff, M. J. , Socioeconomlc Factors Underlying Public Transit Use in the Journey
to Work - Occasional Paper No. 1. Syracuse University, June 1970.. NTIS (PB-197-575).
An empirical model for evaluating socio-economic determinants of modal
choice for work trips in medium-sized cities. Transit usage is determined
by race; automobile ownership; marital status; family income; percentage
of females in the labor force; family size; and population and employment
density.
24. Koike, H., Planning Urban Transportation Systems; A Model for Generating Socially
Desirable Transportation Network Configurations - Research Report No. 2,
Washington University, Seattle Urban Planning and Civil Engr. Departments.
NTIS (PB-199-290).
A model for designing transportation networks to increase the "satisfaction
level" - an index depending on transportation accessibility, employment
accessibility and socio-economic status. A weighing function favors least
satisfied residents in an urban area.
25. Kurkhardt, J. E. and M. T. Shaffer, "Social and Psychological Impacts of Trans-
.-...«..,«-(_» "*-!-%- 3,-- » - " -p^««....~.«-2i..r /KrrTJ\ »'-,' 1 »irt 1 T- OA7_'x:
£.CC%.i*b-«.wt. ...lif.. ** v ciuw.i ».o , .... oitofr)^ .. CQI.J.WH \t> ***.!/, «o^.. .t. , i«O» A. , f f A.S// *-*j ,
August 1972.
A discussion of the social impacts of transportation improvements in urban
neighborhoods. The identification of social impacts, suggested measurement
techniques, and the need for transportation planners to consider these
impacts in the planning process are presented.
26. Langfield, S. C., The Balanced and Orderly Development of the Site in Close Proximity
to a Metro Station as a Contributor to a More Healthy and Economically Viable
Urban Environment in the Washington Metropolitan Area, Consortium of University,
Urban Transportation Center, June 1971. NTIS (PB-203-783).
The relationship between rapid mass transportation construction and surround-
ing land use and value. Zoning policies in San Francisco and Toronto are
examined to Illustrate the author's contention that increased accessibility
(provided by transit) causes activities to shift to the most accessible
locations, promoting intensive land use and greater land value. Potential
growth and development of a North Bethesda, Maryland transit site is examined
in view of existing land use, assessed valuation, and zoning.
27. Lee, J. W., "Framework for Using Social Indicators to Monitor, Evaluate and Improve
a Public Transportation System," Highway Research Record. Number 410, pp. 24-36, 1972.
An examination of social indicators (variables to measure social performance)
for public transportation systems. After a discussion of an overall framework
four indicators are selected: origins, destinations and number of female
214
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27. (Continued)
adult users (a large and particularly dependent group^f. users); ability to
pay (weekly transportation cost divided by weekly income); ,-nilmber and time
of daily work trips; and monthly vandalism cost. Measurement and collection
techniques are discussed and the use of vandalism indicators in Atlanta,
Georgia is illustrated.
28. Lewis, J. E., "Transportation Theory of Urban Land Rent," Right of Way, Vol. 9,
No. 2, pp. 23-28, April 1972.
A discussion of the hypothesis that site rents of urban land are composed of,
and are equal to, the savings in transportation costs afforded by one location
over another. Transportation improvements and population density changes
are viewed as causes of rent level locational shifts. The author suggests
additional empirical-research.
29. Lisco, T. E., "Value of Commuters Travel Time - A Study in Urban Transportation,"
Highway Research Record, Number 245, p. 36, 1968.
A modal choice study based on household interview data collected as part of
the Chicago Skokie Swift Mass Transportation Demonstration Project. Analysis
of times and costs for alternative trip modes inferred by choices of commuters,
and the effects of commuter characteristics (e.g., income) on modal choice
was conducted. Results showed that: (1) typical commuters value time at
4 or 5 cents per minute, and value comfort at $2.00 per day; (2) that commuters
will choose between transit and automobile travel based on time and cost
benefits; and (3) tha discomfort of walking ti.se is significant (an indication
that placement of transit stations may be important in determining use).
30. Arthur D. Little, Inc., Center City Transportation Project - Descriptive Summary,
September 1970. NTIS (PB-198-610).
A multidisciplinary approach to generate information about transportation
requirements in the core cities of Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Pittsburgh, and
Seattle. Project objective was to establish priorities for near-term
transportation improvements, and eventual accommodation of new technologies.
Institutional barriers to improvements in center city mobility (e.g., lack
of planning coordination, local financing of public transit) are discussed.
Disparities among studied cities are noted, and demonstration projects for
each area are proposed. (Note: separate reports are published for each city.)
31. Manarolla, J. A., Hie Trip to Work - A Submodule of a General Metropolitan-Regional
Area Man-Machine Simulation, Consortium of University, Urban Transportation Center,
1970. NTIS (PB-194-099).
A general operational simulation of a metropolitan or regional area. Variables
include spatial relations, private economic activities, local government
functions, and federal/state aid, and personal functions (job seeking, demand
for public facilities, leisure time activities, voting behavior). A gaming
situation is used to assess travel time, convenience, and costs in determining
modal choice for journeys to work.
215
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32. Meyburg, A. H., "Analysis of Relationships Between Intercity Passenger Transportation
and the Socio-economic Characteristics of Metropolitan Areas," Transportation
Research Forum, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 271-84, 1972.
Development of measures of socio-economic characteristics of metropolitan areas,
with specific reference to intercity transportation system characteristics.
Forty metropolitan areas in the Northeast Corridor are analyzed over a 30-year
period, and the significance and stability of statistical relationships are
examined.
33. Meyer, J. R., J. F. Kain and M. Wohl, The Urban Transportation Problem, Harvard
University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1965.
An examination of urban transportation systems including highways and mass
transit. The focus is on the effect of transportation on the overall
metropolitan environment.
34. Murin, W. J., The Evolution of Metro, Consortium of University, Urban Transportation
Center, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-100).
A summary of the evolution of the Washington, D.C. area subway system from
early legislation (1950's) through adoption (1969), with emphasis on the
decision-making process. This is part of a larger effort which will address
these issues more broadly, and analyze the needs and access opportunities of
the inner-city residents.
35. Sctass, C. 1., "Access to Jobs and Willingness to Travel." Highway Hesaarch Record,
Number 392, pp. 143-146, 1972.
Development of a model-based, aggregate measure of willingness to travel to
work. The author contends that data on the spatial distribution of jobs
for the occupational groups considered is necessary for an effective measure.
A summary of previous studies on bus transit experiments to improve access
to suburban jobs is also presented.
36. O'Flaherty, C. A., "People, Transport Systems, and the Urban Scene: An Overview - I,"
Intl. J. Environmental Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 265-85, July 1972.
A discussion of the relationship between quality of life in urban areas, and
long-term land use and transport developments. Summaries of urban transport
to date with specific emphasis on automobile use, and future transportation
development in towns are presented.
37. Official Proceedings, Fourth International Conference on Urban Transportation,
Pittsburgh, March 10-12, 1969.
Papers presented in this publication examine: transit progress in Europe,
legislation and federal highway policy, city transportation and growth,
urban transport and inter-governmental relations. Various economic, social,
and land use impacts are discussed.
216
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38. Reinsburg, Mark, Growth and Change in Metropolitan Areas and Their Relation to
Metropolitan Transportation, Northwestern University, Transportation Center,
Bvanston, Illinois, 1961.
A discussion of the roles of mass transit and automobile transportation in
the decline of the central business district (CBD). Congestion of the inner
city because of increased automobile use, migration of higher income families
to the suburbs, migration of industry from the CBD, and a reduced tax base in
the inner city are noted. The declining use of mass transit, the possibility
of subsidy for mass transit, and the role of the CBD as a "seed bed" for
new small firms are discussed. It is suggested that survival of urban mass
transit in its present form is unlikely.
39. Romanoh, Eliahu, Impact of Mass Transit Construction on the Massachusetts Economy,
Regional Science Research Center, Cambridge, Massachusetts (Paper No. 72-2), 1972.
A preliminary investigation of the effect of mass transit construction on
the economy of Massachusetts in terms of employment generated in the heavy
construction industry (SIC 1621), and estimates of resulting employment in
other industries. An input-output model of the Massachusetts economy is used
in deriving these preliminary figures.
40. Itoszner, E. S., The Impact of Rapid Transit: An Evaluation of the Proposed Allegheny
County Transit Expressway Revenue Line, Carnegie Mellon Univ., Transportation
Research Institute, July 1971.
A benefit-cost analysis of the proposed 11-mile transit expressway revenue
line to be located in tha south hills area of Pittsburgh. Measurable
economic benefits were projected for 1975-2010; non-measurable benefits for
the community included improved local bus services, diverted long-haul traffic,
reduced automobile congestion, promotion of orderly land use development,
mobility for low-income persons, improved access to civic activities and
facilities, and employment in construction and operation of the line.
41. Sheldon, Nancy W. and R. Brandwein, The Economic and Social Impact of Investments
in Public Transit, Harbridge House, Inc., Published by Lexington Books, Lexington,
Massachusetts, 1973.
An overview of user, operator, and community benefits derived from improvements
or extensions of public transportation, and summaries and analyses of case
studies on rapid rail transit, bus transit, and commuter rail systems in U.S.
metropolitan areas. The authors suggest that frequently, though not always,
public transit is a good alternative to highways in urban areas, providing
broad social benefits; that for defined transportation objectives, rail rapid
transit, as an alternative to auto and bus transportation, ranks first in terms
of total benefits; and that use of Highway Trust Fund revenues to support
public transit would be an equitable, socially responsible, and efficient
policy decision.
42, Simpson and Curtin, The Traffic Rider. 1968; Interim Report No. 1. 1966. NTIS
(PB-195-838).
A survey conducted in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area to develop a profile of
bus riders. Riders are classified according to age, sex, annual family
217
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42. (Continued)
income, automobile ownership and captive vs. choice riders. A profile of
trip patterns is also developed according to route patronage, travel to the
central business district, trip purpose, and travel means to and from buses.
43. Skidmore, Owinga & Merrill, Center City Transportation Project: Urban Design
Guideline. September 1970. NTIS (PB-198-600).
Case studies of five cities (Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Seattle)
including evaluation of urban design work programs, and a field survey of
communities in each area. Three levels of urban design are addressed:
(1) city form; . (2) transportation architecture; and (3) human factors.
44. Stanford Research Institute, Future Urban Transportation Systems: Impacts on
Urban Life and Form-Final Report II, Menlo Park, California, March 1968.
NTIS (PB-178-266).
Formation of a hypothetical future urban area (4 million Inhabitants; largely
free from present tax and government constraints; and consisting of multiple
centers within a central urban concentration) to test public transportation
flows and evaluate potential physical, economic, and social impacts of trans-
portation concepts. ' Analysis of the relationships between demography, transit
network characteristics, and design solutions was conducted.
45. Studholne, E. D., Metro Impact in Arlington County: A Case Study and Evaluation
of a Transit Growth Modal. Consortium of University, 'Jrbsr. Transportation Ccr.t;r,
June 1971. NTIS (PB-204-934).
A critical evaluation of two proposed models of growth in proximity to rapid
transit stations in Arlington County, Virginia. Four variables are addressed:
population size; population and building density; land use zoning; and circula-
tion and mobility. The author criticizes several planning assumptions (e.g.,
transportation accessibility and water and sewer capacities are not good
predictors of population growth); and contends that the models do not address
increased growth opportunities in all sectors of the surrounding community.
46. Sweek, J. E., Evaluating the Central City Access Opportunity Provided by a Public
Transportation System - Research Report No. 1, Washington University, Seattle,
1970. NTIS (PB-198-140).
A methodology to measure access opportunities provided to urban residents
by a public transportation system. Access opportunity is measured by travel
time and costs, and a "query-type" system is developed for assessing an
Individual's transit convenience. An alternative bus system and proposed
rail rapid transit route in the Seattle, Washington CBD were tested, and
the author concludes that the rail transit would offer only a marginal
increase in access opportunities because of high relative transfer time costs.
47. Teska, R. B., "Social, Economic, and Environmental Impacts of A System of High-
Accessibility Corridors." Highway Research Record. Number 356, pp. 119-129, 1971.
A definition of criteria to be met by transportation corridors in Chicago,
with specific reference to the objectives outlined in the 1966 comprehensive
218
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47. (Continued)
city plan. Criteria include: incorporation of public and private transporta-
tion facilities; corridor land uses; functional and environmental relationships
between transportation and land use; and integration of all high-accessibility
corridors in a total system concept.
48. Tuzo, G. C., The Evolution of the D.C. Highway System. Consortium of University,
Urban Transportation Center, June 1971. NTIS (PB-204-935).
An historical review of transportation artery development in the Washington,
D.C. area and projected demands through the 1990's. Demands for streets and
highways generated by the introduction of the automobile and mass transit, and
development growth patterns are traced. Four alternative plans for growth
considered in the early 1900's are presented (planned sprawl, dispersed cities,
peripheral communities, and radial corridor development). Rail rapid transit
scheduled for completion before 1980 is discussed, and its role in radial
growth is examined.
49. Voorhees, Alan M. & Associates, Inc., A Systems Analysis of Transit Routes and
Schedules, November 1969. NTIS (PB-189-269).
A series of computer programs to assist in formulating long-range plans for
public transit systems, and utilizing the Washington, D.C. transit system
for case study. Alternative systems were developed, analyzed, and compared
based on: (1) results of a passenger origin-destination survey in 1966; and
(2) operating characteristics of the current D.C. transit system (route
location, bus headways, bus spaads, operating costs, field-counted passenger
volumes).
50. Wachs, M. , "Employment, Mobility, and Public Transportation in Chicago: A Survey of
Attitudes and Behavior," Highway Research Record, Number 148, pp. 142-151, 1971.
An interview survey in Chicago to examine relationships between employment
status (employed vs. unemployed) and mobility. Differences in accessibility,
dependence on public transit, and quality of service are evaluated with the
objective of determining how to provide better linkages between the unemployed
and available jobs.
51. Wickstrom, G. V., "integrated Measurement Framework for Transportation Planning,"
Journal of Transportation Eng. . American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 98,
No. Te2, pp. 275-283, May 1972.
A measurement framework, expressed in terms of access to opportunities,
for transportation planning. Emphasis is on integration of planning with
social, economic, and physical considerations. The author suggests additional
research to determine the access of the various user groups.
52. Zwick, Charles J., "The Demand for Transportation Services in a Growing Economy,"
Highway Research Record, Number 2, pp. 3-5, 1965.
Causal relations between transportation and economic growth and how they have
changed over time. It is suggested that transportation shaped economic growth
219
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52. (Continued)
In the past, but that today forces exogenous to the transportation system
determine economic development. Mobility of labor and capital and increasing
dominance of these two factors over raw material inputs in industry allow
industry to locate near its markets rather than near raw materials. Rising
personal income has led to willingness to pay for quality in transportation
service. Future transportation systems will be determined by economic forces
and demands for quality service.
220
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III. WASTEWATER FACILITIES
01. Grava, Sigurd, Urban Planning Aspects of Water Pollution Control, Columbia
University Press, New York, 1969.
Examination of the implications of sewerage collection and treatment systems
for urban planning. The focus is on interactions of wastewater systems with
the general administrative and financial aspects of city management. The
assumption is made that sewer lines tend to attract development but no
empirical evidence is presented in support of such a relationship.
02. Greenberg, Michael R., "Issues in Waste Water Treatment Facility Location,"
Growth and Change: A Journal of Regional Development, Vol. 3, pp. 38-43,
January 1972.
An analysis of potential disadvantages of regional sewerage systems and of
the possible relative benefits of localized facilities. Secondary impacts
cited include employment, land development, and land values.
03. Li, C. Y., "Sewerage Plan Involves Open Space Preservation," Civil Engineering,
Vol. 43, pp. 85-86, January 1973.
Description of a regional sewerage plan for York, Pennsylvania, and discussion
ol possible design alternatives to control sprawl and minimize undesirable
development. Alternatives include the use of force mains to discourage
unwanted hook-ups and minimize traversal of open spaces by interceptor
sewers.
04. Metropolitan Council of Governments (Washington Metropolitan Area), Department of
Health and Environmental Protection, Analysis of the Joint Interactions of Water
Supply, Public Policy, and Land Development Patterns in an Expanding Metropolitan
Area, Final Report to the Office of Water Resources Research, U.S. Department of
the Interior, September 1973.
Possible relations between sewer extensions and population growth in the
Washington Metropolitan Area are statistically examined in the period 1960 to
1968. Simple statistical analysis by watershed suggests a relation between
population growth and sewer capacity. A relation with higher statistical
significance was obtained when the amount of vacant land divided by its
average straight line distance to trunk sewer service was also included.
Analysis of the same data by EMPIRIC model districts does not yield results
consistent with those found for watersheds.
05. Metropolitan Council of Governments (Washington Metropolitan Area), Water and
Sewerage Plan and Program 1971-1972. 1971.
Progress report on a project to identify the effects of water and sewerage
service on population growth and employment in the Washington, D. C. Metro-
221
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05. (Continued)
politan Area. Data are being collected to derive mathematical relations
to predict impacts of sewer and water service extensions on developmental
patterns.
06. Milgram, Grace, The City Expands, Institute for Environmental Studies, University
of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, prepared for the U.S. Department
of Housing and Urban Development, March 1967.
An empirical study of the rise in price of vacant land and its relationship
to time-distance to the central business district, proximity to public
transportation, and availability of sewers over an 18-year period in a
section of Philadelphia. Other factors, such as degree of development of
vacant land, its potential uses, and the type of buyer and seller also
influenced price.
07. Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Planning Authority, Regional Sewerage Plan,
November 1971.
A description of the sewerage plan for the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana planning
region. The proposed wastewater system was designed so that new interceptor
sewers serve a minimum of land set aside for conservation in the area's
comprehensive land use plan.
08. Rivkin/Carson. Inr... Population Growth in Relation to Watpr Resources Policy.
Washington, D. C., October 1971.
An examination at a high level of aggregation of trends in urban growth in
relation to water resource investments. Statistical analysis suggested that
water resources development by itself has no impact on regional growth rates.
09. San Diego Comprehensive Planning Organization, Water Distribution and Sanitary
Sewerage Systems: Background and Policy Study, 1972. NTIS (PB-214-261) .
An outline of goals and policies for sewerage planning in San Diego County,
California, including a brief discussion of developmental effects of sewerage
works. Sewer extensions must be timed -and located to support rather than
conflict with land use plans. A policy of locating and sizing sewers to
control the rate, density, and sites of new development in the county is
suggested.
10. Stansbury, Jeffrey, "Suburban Growth: A Case Study," Population Bulletin, Vol. 28,
April 1972.
A largely qualitative description of the influence of interceptor sewers on
development in Fairfax County, Virginia. Major extensions of the sewer
system into undeveloped portions of the study area were rapidly followed by
sprawl type residential development. It is suggested that the particular
complex set of local conditions (growth pressure, soil characteristics, zoning
222
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10. (Continued)
practices, wastewater investment policies) combined to make interceptor
sewers the primary determinant of location and intensity of new development.
New development created intense pressure on public services and caused
increased tax burdens. The study attributes these effects to poor land
use planning and control, the "subsidy" that public sewers provided to
developers and the desire for increased hook-up revenues on the part of
the local sewer authorities.
11. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency," Region II, Wastewater Treatment Facilities
Grants for Nassau and Suffolk Counties, New York, July 1972.
Twelve wastewater treatment projects in Nassau and Suffolk Counties, New York
are described. The projects include improvement of existing plants, construc-
tion of new plants, sewers, and outfalls. Concern is expressed on the effect
of development on groundwater supplies.
12. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III, Bethany Beach (Delaware) Regional
Wastewater Treatment Plant, Environmental Impact Statement, December 1972.
A proposed regional system including treatment plants and sewer lines to
serve Bethany Beach, Sussex County, Delaware. Potential impacts on land use,
density, and property values are discussed.
13- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IV, Cobb County .(Georgia) Sewerage
TirT)ro-''>"-'pn'- Projec*-, Environmental Inpact: Statement, July 1971.
A description of proposed construction of a centralized waste treatment
facility and interceptor sewer lines to serve Cobb County, Georgia. Small
public and private package plants now in operation will be phased out.
Potential impacts on recreational land use and development are discussed.
14. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region VI, Wastewater Facilities, Hot Springs,
Arkansas, Environmental Impact Statement, October 1972.
A proposed central treatment plant and interceptor sewer lines for the area
in and around Hot Springs, Arkansas. Population and land use trends and
projections are given and possible impacts of the proposed facilities are
discussed briefly.
15. Updegraff, Gail E., "The Economics of Sewage Disposal in a Coastal Urban Area:
A Case Study of the Monterey Peninsula, California," Natural Resources Journal,
Vol. 11, pp. 373-389, April 1971.
A description of the planning process in the Monterey, California region,
where new sewerage plans were necessitated by legal action to stop pollution
of coastal waters. The focus is on analysis of decision processes, possible
alternative plane, and of political controversies.
223
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IV. MODELS
01. Alonso, William, Location and Land Use: Toward a General Theory of Land Rent,
Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1965.
Agricultural rent theory is extended"to urban land values. A mathematical
analysis of the locational equilibrium of households and firms is generated
through bid price curves, and the effects of economic development on urban
land use and land values are evaluated.
02. Birch, David, R. Atkinson, S. Sandstrom, and L. Stack, "The New Haven Laboratory:
An Overview," Proceedings of the 1973 Summer Computer Simulation Conference,
Montreal, Canada, July 1973.
An effort to develop a highly flexible model of metropolitan area growth.
Regional totals and census tract locations of population, employment, and
land use are generated. Implicit feedback loops govern migration, job
growth, and housing construction.
03. Blackburn, James, RIVER2 - A River Basin Planning Model, Preliminary Report for
the National Sanitation Foundation and Center for Environmental Study,
December 1972.
The water sector of the Susquehanna River Basin Model is reformulated in
an application to the Grand River Basin.
04. Brigham, E. F., A Model of Residential Land Values. RAND Corporation, Santa
Monica, California, 1964.
An attempt to correlate a number of factors with land values in radial
segments of Los Angeles. The poor results obtained are partially attributed
to Improper selection of independent factors used in the analysis. Selected
factors were: distance to the central business district; average family
income in the census tract; percentage of nonwhite families in the tract;
a measure of crowding; building values; and topography.
05. Catanese, Anthony J., New Perspectives in Urban Transportation Research, Lexington
Books; Lexington, Massachusetts, 1972.
A compendium of transportation oriented models representing a range of
purposes and techniques. Included are theory, structure, and application
of formulations treating: land use; trip distribution; commuting; and gravity
model techniques.
224
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06. Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, Jobs, People and Land: Bay Area
Simulation Study (BASS), Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University
of California, Berkeley, California, Special Report No. 6, 1968.
BASS is designed to test the impact of a range of assumptions on land
utilization in the multi-county San Francisco Bay Area. Residential and
industrial submodels allocate to regional subdivisions population and
employment totals generated by regional growth submodels. Residential
location is assumed to be entirely dependent upon accessibility to employment.
Allocations of industrial changes, however, employ a wide range of location
criteria. Notable among these is the allocation of discrete manufacturing
facilities to geographic subareas according to "essential" conditions for a
given industry and to relative advantages over other candidate subareas.
07. Chapin, F., Jr., "A Model for Simulating Residential Development," Journal of the
American Institute of Planners. Vol. XXXI, No. 2, pp. 120-125, May 1965.
Commonly known as the University of North Carolina (UNC) model, this
formulation addresses the conversion of land from open space to residential
use. The model operates recursively over time, probabilistically allocating
households to sub-areas according to measures of relative attractiveness
(e.g., accessibility to work, schools, and major streets, and availability of
public sewers).
08. CONSAD Research Corporation, Impact Studies; Northeast Corridor Transportation
Project, Volumes I, II, III, IV, prepared for the NortheastCorridor Transpor-
tation Project, Office of High-Speed Grcur.d Transportation, U.S. Dcpart-.cr.t
of Transportation, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970.
A model for forecasting the impact of various transportation systems in the
Northeast Corridor of the United States on population, economic activity,
income, and land use. The model emphasizes the concept of "comparative
advantage" of alternative locations in determining geographic distribution
of activities. A non-spatial model (ECON) of economic activity in the
Corridor provides inputs to a dynamic intraregional location model (INTRA).
Regression analysis is used to calibrate the econometric equations in both
models.
09. Crecine, John P., "TOMM (Time Oriented Metropolitan Model)," Community Renewal
Program Technical Bulletin, No. 6, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, January 1964.
An adaptation of Lowry's "Model of Metropolis" for modeling household and
retail location of the city of Pittsburgh. Revisions are disaggregation of
population by income and a time-stepping simulation format. TOMM is one
of three models constituting the Pittsburgh Urban Renewal Simulation Model.
10. De Leeuw, Frank, The Distribution of Housing Services: A Mathematical Model,
Working Paper 208-1, The Urban Institute, Washington, D. C., 1971.
An equilibrium, one-step projection of the distribution of families and
ingle persons among concentric zones of a hypothetical metropolitan area.
225
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10. (Continued)
A utility function for households is based upon housing costs and quality,
travel times, and average zonal income. A linear program maximizes household
utility and the profit of landlords (who adjust housing prices and maintenance
levels in response to demand).
11. Ellickson, Bryan, "Jurisdictional Fragmentation and Residential Choice," American
Economic Review, Vol. 61, pp. 334-339, May 1971.
A theoretical exposition of household location based on the postulate that
an equilibrium solution exists only when households locate in a pattern that
stratifies population by wealth. Housing prices, tax rates, and the quality
of public services are assumed to be the only determinants of household
location.
12. Engle, Robert F., Ill, F. M. Fisher, J. R. Harris, and J. Rothenberg, "An Econometric
Simulation Model of Intra-Metropolitan Housing Location: Housing, Business,
Transportation, and Local Government," American Economic Review, Vol. LXII,
No. 2, pp. 87-97, May 1972.
A series of models iiltended to evaluate policy alternatives at different
governmental levels with respect to the development of Boston. A set of
models is proposed to provide regional forecasts of industry and population
and their distribution within the region. Two models the macroeconomic
and long-term adjustment models provide population, employment, and
incom". as inputs to the location nsodel. The intrarsgional Iccatior. racial
addresses dynamic market processes involving durable housing structures.
The colocation of housing with other zonal attributes (e.g., accessibility,
tax rates) determines location decisions.
13. Environmental Impact Center, Inc., A Methodology for Assessing Environmental Impact
of Water Resources Development, First and Second Quarterly Reports to the Office
of Water Resources Research, Department of the Interior, 1972, 1973.
This work expands the dynamic regional simulation formulation of the
Susquehanna River Basin Model. Employment and household location decisions
are simulated at a finer level of geographic detail by examining the
Interactions of supply and demand in the land market.
14. Forrester, Jay W., Urban Dynamics, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1969.
A dynamic simulation model is presented for potential application to the
analysis of the effects of public policies on the development of a city.
The formulation emphasizes (1) the interdependence of the components of the
system; and (2) the manner in which the relative "attractiveness" of an area
is subject to change as a result of decisions, based upon past attractiveness,
by population and industry.
The model simulates the interrelated behavior of taxes, land availability,
industries, population, and housing. The overall behavior generated is
226
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14. (Continued)
characterized by stages of growth, stagnation, and eventual decay of a
hypothetical city. A range of governmental policies including job training
and slum demolition programs are tested with the model.
15. Garn, Harvey A., and R. R. Wilson, A Critical Look at Urban Dynamics: The
Forrester Model and Public Policy. The Urban Institute, Washington, D. C.,
1970.
Forrester's Urban Dynamics model is reviewed and shortcomings of the
formulation are discussed. The selection of boundaries and major sectors
and the use of multiplicative relationships are examined. The authors
provide alternative formulations and compare the results of simulated
policies with those generated by Forrester.
16. Ginn, J. Royce, The NBER Prototype Urban Simulation Model, Preliminary Draft,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., March 1973.
A model of the Pittsburgh area housing markets simulating the interaction of
housing supply and demand and the effects of policies andprograms. Household
location criteria are1 accessibility to work, and housing and neighborhood
characteristics. A linear program generates distribution of residential
demand by minimizing total travel costs. Supplies of housing are governed
by the profitability (to landowners and developers) of construction,
filtering, and transformation.
17.. Goldberg, Michael A., "An Industrial Location Model for the San Francisco Bay
Area," Annals of Regional Science. Vol. 1, pp. 60-73, December 1967.
A component model treating location of industries for the Bay Area Simulation
Study (BASS). Its most notable feature is the assignment of discrete
manufacturing facilities to specific locations, as opposed to a continuous
allocation function. Further technical details are available in the precis
of Jobs, People, and Land.
18. Goldner, William, "The Lowry Model Heritage," Journal of the American Institute
Of Planners. Vol. XXXVII, Number 2, pp. 100-110, March 1971.
A discussion of the adaptations, conceptual revisions, and applications
of Lowry1s Model of Metropolis. Changes examined relate to the use of
dynamic formulations, the degree of disaggregation, developmental constraints,
geographic units, and calibration techniques.
19. Goldner, William, Projective Land Use Model, Bay Area Transportation Study Commission
Technical Report 219, September 1968.
PLUM, a derivative of Lowry's Model of Metropolis, allocates to geographic
subdivisions levels of population and population-serving employment.
227
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19. (Continued)
Residences are allocated on the basis of accessibility to employment.
Retail market potentials are generated as a function of household and
employment location. The model employs a comparative statics framework,
operating recursively over time.
20. Hamilton, H. R., S. E. Goldstone, F. J. Cessario, D. C. Sweet, D. E. Boyce, and
A. L. Pugh III, Final Report on a Dynamic Model of the Economy of the
gusquehanna River Basin. Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio, 1966.
Technical description and analysis of the results of a regional dynamic
simulation model. Economic, demographic, and water resources factors are
formulated in individual models of multi-county subregions. The primary
behavioral relationships are labor force/employment interactions.
21. Hamilton, H. R., S. E. Goldstone, J. W. Milliman, A. L. Pugh III, E. B. Roberts,
and A. Zellner, Systems Simulation for Regional Analysis: An Application to
River-Basin Planning. The M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1969.
A dynamic regional model of the economy of the Susquehanna River Basin.
The model simulates employment/labor force interactions in each of several
"subregions." The resultant behavior of unemployment and wages affects
migration of population and industries into and out of each subregion.
Geographic distribution of residents and employment within subregions is
not addressed.
22. Hester, James, Jr., Systems Models of Urban Growth and Development, M.I.T. Urban
Systems Laboratory, Cambridge, Massachusetts, November 1969.
A review of a number of models of urban development and a detailed analysis of
Forrester's Urban Dynamics Model. Forrester's formulation is substantially
revised in Hester's model, which treats only population and employment.
The model's geographic division of an urban area into core city and suburbs
remedies a commonly cited deficiency of the Forrester model.
23. Hill, Donald M., "A Growth Allocation Model for the Boston Region," Journal of the
American Institute of Planners, Volume XXXI, Number 2, pp. 111-120, May 1965.
The'EMPIRIC Model was designed to allocate blue- and white-collar population
and retail, manufacturing, and other employment to subregions in the Boston
Metropolitan Area. Residential and industrial land development is dependent
upon numerous exogenous factors: intensities of land use, zoning regulations,
accessibilities, quality of water service, and quality of sewerage service.
Equations were calibrated using multiple linear regression.
24. Hoover, Edgar M., The Location of Economic Activity, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc.,
New York, 1948.
An analytical examination of locational preferences of industry in terms
of procurement, processing, and distribution advantages. Political
228
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24. (Continued)
boundaries and public policies are analyzed for their effects on economic
location and stability, and trade movements.
25. Isard, Walter, Methods of Regional Analysis, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
1960.
A wide range of analytical techniques in regional science are described and
evaluated: alternative forms of population projection and migration
estimation; regional income estimation; interregional flow analysis;
regional cycle and multiplier analysis; industrial location analysis;
input-output techniques; interregional linear programming; and gravity and
potential models.
26. Kadanoff, Leo P., "An Examination of Forrester's 'Urban Dynamics'," Simulation,
pp. 261-268, June 1971.
A critical examination of the major variables, structure and policy conclusions
of Forrester's Urban Dynamics Model.
27. Kain, John F., "The Journey-To-Work as a Determinant of Residential Location,"
Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 9, pp. 137-160,
1962.
An attempt to explain observed residential distribution by assuming that
household location centers around the jcurtisy-to-wcrk. Households otUcEpu
to minimize total costs, that is, costs of transportation (assumed to increase
with distance from workplace), and costs of residential space (assumed to
decrease with distance from the workplace). The expected static equilibrium
solution is compared with Detroit data on the distribution of households
across a series of concentric zones. The model shows no major discrepancies
with the observed distribution.
28. Kain, John F., and G. K. Ingram, The NBER Urban Simulation Model as a Theory of
Urban Spatial Structure, Preliminary Draft, National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., October 1972.
A dynamic simulation of the interaction of housing supply and demand in
urban area housing markets based on Rain's journey-to-work theory. Price
and availability of housing and neighborhood characteristics are additional
location criteria. The distribution of residential demand is obtained from
a linear program which minimizes total travel costs. Supplies of housing
are governed by profitability (to landowners and developers) of construction,
filtering, and transformation.
29. Kaiser, Edward J., A Producer Model for Residential Growth, Center for Urban
and Regional Studies, Institute for Research in Social Science, University
of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C., November 1968.
A producer oriented model based on discriminant functions and formulated from
empirical results obtained for two North Carolina cities. A linear combination
229
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29. (Continued)
of four predictor variables (socio-economic rank, distance to nearest elementary
school, index of accessibility to employment areas, and availability of public
utilities and services) was used to calculate probabilities of single family,
subdivision development. The equation, calibrated from historical data,
predicts development with an accuracy of only 52% for small-developer
subdivisions, but with 92% accuracy for large-developer subdivisions (random
choice is 50%).
30. Kaiser, E. J., R. W. Massie, S. F. Weiss, and J. E. Smith, "Predicting the
Behavior of Predevelopment Landowners on the Urban Fringe," Journal of the
American Institute of Planners, September 1968.
Multivariate analysis is used to calibrate six predictor variables which
determine the probability of landowners selling undeveloped property.
Variables are: owner residence on the land; owner employment (vs. retirement);
length of ownership; assessed value; type of ownership (single or joint);
and amount of contiguous development. Forecasts are more accurate when
calibrated for each area of application and for each concentric ring within an
area.
31. Kilbridge, M., R. O'Block, and P. Teplity, A Conceptual Framework for Urban Planning
Models, Harvard University Graduate School of Business Administration, Boston,
Massachusetts, January 1968.
A scries of classifications are davaloped for aodels cf urba~ fc ar.d
activity: by subject (land use/population/transportation/economic activity);
by function (projection/allocation/derivation); by theory (behavioral/growth
forces); and by method (econometric/mathematical programming/simulation).
32. Lakshmanan, T. R., and W. G. Hansen, "A Retail Market Potential Model," Journal
of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 134-143,
May 1965.
An examination of the economic feasibility of large commercial centers in
Metropolitan Baltimore. Potential markets in the region are determined with
a gravity model. The model assumes unchanging consumer patterns and fixed
public policies.
33. Lathrop,. George T., and J. R. Hamburg, "An Opportunity-Accessibility Model for
Allocating Regional Growth," Journal of the American Institute of Planners,
Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 95-103, May 1965.
A model of distribution of growth among a region's subdivisions ranked
according to accessibility to the center. The algorithm employed evaluates
alternative opportunities for location: the greater the number of intervening
locational opportunities, the less the probability of growth in less accessible
areas.
230
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34. Little, Arthur D., Inc., Model of the San Francisco Housing Market, San Francisco
Community Renewal Program Technical Paper No. 8, January 1966.
A simulation over time of the behavior of factors that determine housing unit
quality, quantity, location, price, and type in the San Francisco area. The
interaction of supply and demand in submarkets is the central mechanism in
the formulation. Preference functions of population groups determine housing
demands. Supplies are governed by construction, conversion, and demolition.
The model is designed to evaluate effects of housing policies and programs
and makes no explicit reference to accessibility.
35. Lowry, Ira S., A Model of Metropolis. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California,
1964.
A model with a simple and logical causal structure, which attempts, in its
original form, to provide an equilibrium distribution of households and
retail activity. An iterative computational sequence yields a balance
between places of employment and residences.
36. Lowry, Ira S., "Seven Models of Urban Development: A Structural Comparison,"
Highway Research Board, Special Report No. 97, pp. 121-153, 1967.
Lowry's classification and interpretation of seven models: Chicago Area
Transportation Study (land use model); University of North Carolina Model
(land use succession); EMPIRIC (location model); POLIMETRIC (migration);
Lowry's Pittsburgh Model (a hybrid); Penn Jersey Model (market demand);
and San Francisco Housing Model (market supply).
37. Lowry, Ira S., "A Short Course in Model Design," Journal of the American Institute
of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 158-166, May 1965.
A discussion of alternative uses of models (description/prediction/planning)
and of the strategy of model design including level of aggregation ("micro"
vs. "macro"); the treatment of time (comparative statics/analytic dynamics/
recursive); the concept of change; alternative solution methods (analytic/
iteration/simulation/man-machine simulation); and calibration.
38. Markland, Robert E., and P. J. Grandstaff, "Analyzing Urban Economic Change Using
Computer Simulation," Proceedings of the 1973 Summer Computer Simulation
Conference, Montreal, Canada, July 1973.
The Susquehanna River Basin Model is applied to the St. Louis SMSA.
Regional economic-demographic interactions govern growth characteristics
in a dynamic simulation model.
39. Putman, Stephen H., "Developing and Testing an Intra-Regional Model," Regional
Studies, Vol. 4, pp. 473-490, December 1970.
A description of a model integrating portions of the concepts of economic
base, intersectoral input-output, and spatial accessibility to forecast
employment (by ten sectors), population, personal income (by six classes),
land value, and land use for 131 county-sized areas.
231
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40. Putman, Stephen H., "Intraurban Employment Forecasting Models: A Review and
A Suggested New Model Construct," Journal of the American Institute of Planners,
Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 216-230, July 1972.
A classification and review of a series of models according to whether they
treat location of market-sensitive or non-market-sensitive industries. A
new model structure is proposed which considers three basic costs of
industrial operation (procurement, processing, distribution) in describing
growth or decline of existing facilities and in locating new firms.
41. Putman, Stephen H., "Intraurban Industrial Location Model Design and Implementation,"
Papers of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 19, pp. 199-214, 1967.
A discussion of an element (INIMP) of the Pittsburgh Urban Renewal Simulation
Model. Projected industrial changes are distributed among city census tracts.
Decreases may yield facility shutdowns while increases may lead to more
intensive use of existing facilities, or, if capacity constraints are
exceeded, to new facilities. The model operates recursively in allocating
twenty-nine classes of employment.
42. Putman, Stephen H., Preliminary Results from an Integrated Transportation and
Land Use Models Package, Draft, University of Pennsylvania, August 1972
(Revised January 1973).
A two-model package linking a transportation model with the Projective
Land Use Model through accessibility and trip-generation. Preliminary results
demonstrate tazpcrai cycles of congestion, improved transportation facilities,
decongestion, metropolitan sprawl, and subsequent congestion.
43. Schlager, Kenneth J., "A Land Use Plan Design Model," Journal of the American Institute
of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 103-111, May 1965.
Linear programming to determine a minimum cost land use plan. Natural constraints
and costs of developing different land use types are basic inputs to the model.
Land use plans could be varied to identify optimum policies.
44. Schroeder, Walter W., and J. L. Sullivan, "New Tools for Urban Decision-Making,"
Proceedings of the 1973 Summer Computer Simulation Conference, Montreal, Canada,
July 1973.
Documentation of the basic theories of the Urban Dynamics Model and an
attempt to apply the model to Lowell, Massachusetts. The dynamic simulation
emphasizes the interdependence of urban problems and processes which result
in urban growth, stagnation, and decay.
45. Soberman, Richard M., "Approaches to Regional Transportation Models," Transportation
Research Forum, pp. 357-366, 1966.
A comparison of three alternative types of formulations, exemplified by gravity
mdels ("derived demand"), regression techniques ("direct demand"), and
simulation models, and an evaluation of their capabilities in addressing
issues in regional transportation.
232
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46. Steger, Wilbur A., "The Pittsburgh Urban Renewal Simulation Model," Journal of
the American Institute of Planners. Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 144-150, May 1965.
A formulation composed of three models. An input-output model generates
basic employment projections; they are geographically allocated by a second
model (INIMP). The Time Oriented Metropolitan Model (TOMM)., a Lowry-type
model, derives the location of households and retail industry from base
industry distribution. Site-oriented industries are located by INIMP while
market-oriented industries are located by TOMM. Household location is
presumed to be entirely dependent upon accessibility to employment.
47. Swansea, C. V., and R. J. Waldmann, "A Simulation Model of Economic Growth
Dynamics," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 36, pp. 314-322,
September 1970.
The Susquehanna River Basin Model is modified and applied to Kent County,
Michigan. Population is further disaggregated by occupation. Dynamic
labor force/employment interactions dominate the structure of the model.
48. Thompson, Wilbur R., A Preface to Urban Economics, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore,
Maryland, 1968.
Discussions on a broad range of urban and regional problems including:
economic growth and development (growth stages, regional stability,
labor); income (income distribution, worker mobility); economic instability
(cyclical, growth); and interactions among goals and among problems.
49. Tiebout, Charles, The Community Economic Base Study, Committee for Economic
Development, Supplementary Paper No. 16, New York, 1962.
A discussion ofthe rationale, purposes, forms, and problems of economic
base studies. Included are questions of disaggregation, measurement, and
treatment of time.
50. Traffic Research Corporation, Reliability Test Report: EMPIRIC Land Use Forecasting
Model, prepared for Boston Regional Planning Project, New York, 1964.
Efforts to calibrate the EMPIRIC Model are documented. Subregional shares
of blue- and white-collar population and manufacturing, retail, and other
employment in the Boston area are forecasted for the 1950-55 period using
1950-1960 calibration data. Three alternative sets of independent variables
are tested. The reliability of EMPIRIC is favorably compared with that of
other models.
51. Traffic Research Corporation, Review of Existing Land Use Forecasting Techniques,
prepared for Boston Regional Planning Project, New York, 1963.
A review of models in three stages of development (operational, research, and
conceptual) including the Perm-Jersey, Chicago Area Transportation Study and
University of North Carolina, and works by Voorhees (Hartford, Washington),
Lowry, Hansen, Wingo, and Alonso. General observations are made concerning
233
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50. (Continued)
the treatment of time, disaggregation, calibration, accessibility, and
causal structure.
51. Weber, Alfred, Theory of the Location of Industries, University of Chicago
Press, 1929.
A. theory of industrial location emphasizing the importance of two general
regional cost factors, transportation and labor. Transportation costs
are the prime location determinant, while relative labor costs determine
the degree to which actual location patterns deviate from the transportation-
oriented solution. Agglomerative and deglomerative forces are subsequently
analyzed.
234
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SECTION 4
CLASSIFIED BIBLIOGRAPHY
235
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-01. Allen,'J. K., and R. McElvea, Impact of Improved Highways on
the Economy of the United States, Stanford Research Institute,
Menlo Park, California, September 1958.
A-02. Arkansas Highway Department, U.S. 70 Bypass - Glenwood: An
Economic Impact Study, prepared in cooperation with the
w U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, 1967.
A-03. Bardwell, G. E., and Merry, P. R., "Measuring the Economic
Impact of a Limited Access Highway on Communities, Land,Use,
and Land Value," Highway Research Board, Bulletin 268, p;j. 37-
73, 1960.
A-OA. Bleile, G. W., and Moses, L., "Transportation and the Spatial
Distribution of Economic Activity," Highway Research Board,
Bulletin 311, pp. 27-30, 1962.
A-05. Bone, Alexander J., Economic Impact of Massachusetts Route 128,
M.I.T. Transportation Engineering Division, Cambridge,
Massachusetts, 1958.
A-06. Bowersox, D. J., "Influence of Highways on Selection of Six
Industrial Locations," Highway Research Board, Bulletin ?68,
pp. 13-28, 1960.
A-07. Britt, Robert D., "Promises and Accomplishments: The Appalachian
Regional Development Program," Growth and Change: A Journal
of Regional Development, Vol. 2, pp. 3-13, July 1971.
A-08. Buffington, J. L., A Study of the Economic Impact of Interstate A5
on Huntsville, Texas, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas
Highway Department, August 1966.
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-09. Buffington, J. L., A Study of the Economic Impact of Interstate
Highway A5 on Conroe, Texas, Texas Transportation Institute,
Texas Highway Department, August 1966.
A-10. Buhl, W. F., "Intercity Highway Transport Share Trends to Vary
Inversely with Size of Plant," Highway Research Record,
Number 175, pp. 9-14, 1967.
A-ll. Christensen, A. H., and B. C. Hartronft, Economic Impact of
Interstate Highway 35 on Blackvell, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Highway Department, 1965. NTIS (PB-172-912) .
A-12. Connally, Julia A., The Socio-Economic Impact of the Capit.-al
Beltway on Northern Virginia, Bureau of Population and Economic
Research, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia,
1968.
A-13. Connally, J. A., and C. 0. Meiburg, "The Washington Capital
Beltway and Its Impact on Industrial and Multi-Family Expansion
in Virginia," Highway Research Record, Number 217, pp. 9-27,
1968.
A-14. Cort, C. J., "The Evaluation of Travelling Time," Journal of
Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 279-2!',6,
September 1969.
A-15. Dansereau, H. Kirk, "Highway Development: Attitudes and Economic
Climate," Highway Research Record, Number 187, pp. 12-32. 1967.
A-16. Deen, R. C., Impact of 1-75 on the Local Economy between Wsilton
and Georgetown, Kentucky Department of Highways, 1966.
IMPACTS
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A. Economic
A-17. Dodge, W. H., Influence of a Major Highway Improvement upon an
Agricultural-Based Economy, Wisconsin Department of Transporta-
tion, Division of Highways, and Wisconsin University, 1966.
A-18. Erion, G. L., and G. L. Mitchell, Effects of Highway Bypas.ses on
Five Montana Communities, Montana University, 1966.
NTIS (PB-170-871).
A-19. Fantus Company, Inc., "Industrial Location Research Studied:
Summary and Recommendations," Appalachian Research Report,
Number 4, December 1966.
A-20. Faucett, Jack and Associates, Inc., Methodology for Relating
Highway Investment to Regional Economic Activity, Maryland
State Roads Commission, FHWA, 1971.
A-21. Faucett, Jack and Associates, Inc., Regional Economic Effects
of Highway Investment - A Case Study of the Interstate System,
FHWA, July 1971.
A-22. Fidler, J., "Commercial Activity Location Model," Highway
Research Record. Number 207, pp. 68-84, 1967.
A-23. Fowler, R. D., J. Sanders, and A. H. Stocks, A Pilot Study of
Highway-Oriented Business Development at Interstate Interchange
Areas, West Virginia University, February 1965. NTIS (PB-173-
268).
A-24. Fromm, G., ed., Transport Investment and Economic Development,
Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C., 1965.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-25. Gamble, H. B., D. L. Raphael, and 0. H. Sauerlender, "Direct and
Indirect Economic Impacts of Highway Interchange Development,"
Highway Research Record, Number 149, pp. 42-55, 1966.
A-26. Garrison, William L., B. J. L. Berry, D. F. Marble, J. D. Mystuen,
and R. L. Morrill, Studies of Highway Development and Gee.graphic
Change, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 1959.
A-27. Grossman, D. A., and M. R. Levin, "Area Development and Hig.hway
Transportation," Highway Research Record, Number 16, pp. 24-31,
1963.
A-28. Harrison, J. W., "Methods Used to Study Effects of Lexington
City, Virginia Bypass on Business Volumes and Composition,"
Highway Research Board, Bulletin 189, pp. 96-110, 1958.
A-29. Horwood, Edgar M., and Ronald R. Boyce, Studies of the Central
Business District and Urban Freeway Development, University
of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington, 1959.
A-30. Horwood, Edgar M., C. A. Zellner, and R. L. Ludwig, "Community
Consequences of Highway Improvement," National Cooperative
Highway Research Program Report, 18, 1965.
A-31. Hooker, R. W., and K. R. Potter, The Impact of a.New Interstate
Highway on a Corridor: An Input-Output Analysis, Wyoming
University, FHWA, January 1971.
A-32. Iowa State Highway Commission, Newton Economic Study, Interstate
80 Bypass. 1966. NTIS (PB-173-169).
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS.
A. Economic
A.-33. Kiley, E, Y., "Highways as a Factor in Industrial Location,"
Highway Research Record, Number 75, 1965.
A-34. Kinnard, William N., and Z. S. Mallnowski, Highways as a Factor
in Small Manufacturing Plant Location Decisions, University of
Connecticut, August 1961.
A-35. Kraft, Gerald, et al., The Role of Transportation in Regional
Economic Development, D. C. Heath & Co., Lexington,
Massachusetts, 1971.
A-36. Kuehn, John A., and J. G. West, "The Ozarks: Highways and
Regional Development," Growth and Change; A Journal of Regional
Development, Vol. 2, pp. 23-28, July 1971.
A-37. Lane, S. R., Freeway Traffic Noise: An Information Base for
Urban Development Decision. 1971. NTIS (PB-204-434).
A-38. Leone, R. A., "Role of Data Availability in Intrametropolitan
Workplace Location Studies," Annals of Economic and Social
Measurement, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 171-182, April 1972.
A-39. Leven, Charles L., "A Framework for the Evaluation of Secondary
Impacts of Public Investments," American Journal of Agricultural
Economics, Vol. 52, pp. 723-730, December 1970.
A-AO. Maiolo, John R., ed., Highways and Communities, Pennsylvania
State University, Institute for Research on Land and Water
Resources, University Park, Pennsylvania, 1966.
A-A1. Maryland State Roads Commission, Economic Impact Studies on a
Portion of the Baltimore Beltway, July 1960.
IMPACTS
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Land Use & L.
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X
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X
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-42. Mason, J. B., and C. T. Moore, "Commercial Site Selection at
Interstate Interchanges, Traffic Quarterly, Eno Foundation for
Transportation, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 19-23, January 1973.
A-43. McKain, Walter C., The Connecticut Turnpike - A Ribbon of Hope.
University of Connecticut, Storrs Agricultural Experiment
Station, 1965.
A-44. Meyer, J. R., J. F. Kain, and M. Wohl, The Urban Transportation
Problem, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
1965.
A-45. Michigan State University, Economic and Social Effects of Highway
Improvements; A Summary, summarized by E. Clark Rowley,
East Lansing, Michigan, 1961.
A-46. Mills, E. S., Studies in the Structure of the Urban Economy,
Resources for the Future, Inc., 151 pp., 1972.
A-47. Missouri State Highway Commission, Boonville Economic Study,
1958-1963. 1965. NTIS (PB-172-983).
A-48. Montana State College, Benefits from Highway Development: User
and Non-User, Agricultural Experiment Station, Bozeman,
Montana, 1956.
A-49. Moore, C. T., A Study of the Expected Economic and Social Impact
of Interstate Highways in the Industrial and Commercial Trading
Area of Birmingham, Alabama. Alabama Highway Department, Final
Report, September 1965.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-50. Mueller, Eva, A. Wieken, and M. Wood, Location Decisions and
Industrial Mobility in Michigan, University of Michigan,
Institute for Social Research, 1961.
A-51. North Carolina State Highway Commission, Remainder and Economic
Study at Interchanges on 1-95. North Carolina State Highway
Commission Research Project, Raleigh, N.C., 1966.
A-52. North Star Research and Development Institute, The Economic
Impact of the Freeways on the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, 1971.
A-53. Ohio Department of Highways, A Bypass Economic Impact Study of
Circleville, Piqua, and St. Clairsville, Ohio. May 1966.
A-54. Oklahoma Department of Highways, Economic Impact of Interstate
Highway 35 on Tonkawa, Oklahoma, U.S. Bureau of Public Roads,
1968.
A-55. Pennsylvania State University, Highway Impact Research Sta):f,
Blairsville; A Bypass Study - The Economic and Social Impact
of a Highway, 1962.
A-56. Pipkin, L. S., F. L. Hendrix, and G. L. Banner, Economic Impact
of Interstate 40 on Existing Development Along State Rout:e 1
Between Knoxville and Kingston, Tennessee, and Adjacent Areas,
Tennessee University, 1966.
A-57. Rae, J. B., "The Mythology of Urban Transportation," Traffic
Quarterly. Eno Foundation for Transportation, Vol. 26, Nc. 1,
pp. 85-98, January 1972.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-58. Rapp, John, Economic Impact Study of U.S.. 81 through Yankton,
South Dakota, prepared for South Dakota Department of Highways,
Research and Planning Division, November 1966.
A-59. Real Estate Research Corporation, Highway Networks as a Factor
in the Selection of Commercial and Industrial Locations,
prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, U.S. Department
of Commerce, 1958.
A-60. Reinsburg, Mark, Growth and Change in Metropolitan Areas and Their
Relation to Metropolitan Transportation, Northwestern University,
Transportation Center, Evanston, Illinois, 1961.
A-61. Richards, H. A., J. P. Miller, and W. H. Allio, A Study of Inter-
state Highways, Frontage Roads, and Industry Location, Te-.xas
Transportation Institute, Texas ASM University, 1968.
NTIS (PB-180-351).
A-62. Shurbert, M , and F. J. Devaney, "Maryland Capital Beltway Study,"
Highway Research Record, Number 277, p. 41, 1969.
A-63. Smith, Wilbur & Associates, Inc., Maryland Capital Beltway Impact
Study: Final Report, Washington SMSA and Maryland CountJes,
prepared for the Maryland State Roads Commission, June 1968.
A-64. Straszhelm, Mahlon R., "Transportation Policy as an Instrument
for Altering Regional Development Patterns Misdirected
Emphasis?," Discussion Paper Number 52, Harvard University
Program on Regional and Urban Economics, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
August 1969.
IMPACTS
41
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-65. Stroup, R. H., and L. A. Vargha, "Economic Impact of Secondary
Road Improvements," Highway Research Record, Number 16, 1963.
A-66. Wells, D. R., An Economic Impact Study of the Effects of
Interstate 55 on the Highway-Related Businesses in Five
Northern Mississippi Towns, Mississippi University, Mississippi
State Highway Department, June 1967.
ivo A-67. Wheat, L. F., "Effect of Modern Highways on Urban Manufacturing
*; Growth," Highway Research Record, Number 277, 1969.
A-68. Whitehurst, C. H., The Road Around: A Study of the Economic
Impact of Highway Bypasses on Rural South Carolina Cities and
Towns. Clemson University, 1965. NTIS (PB-172-938).
A-69. Williams, R. L., and R. K. Koshal, Highways and Economic Develop-
ment in Ohio, Volume 1, Ohio University, Ohio Department of
Public Works, Athens, Ohio, 1970.
A-70. Witheford, David K., "Highway Impacts on Downtown and Suburban
Shopping," Highway Research Record, Number 187, pp. 15-20,
1967.
A-71. Wright, A. L., and M. G. Blase, "A Depressed Region and Three
Myths," Growth and Change; A Journal of Regional Development,
Vol. 2, pp. 14-22, July 1971.
A-72. Wullweber, L. D., South Dakota Interstate Highway 29, Economic
Impact Study, South Dakota Department of Highways, June 1967.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
A. Economic
A-73. Wullweber, L. D., Long Term Economic Effects of Highway SD 50
Bypass on Tyndall, South Dakota, South Dakota Department of
Highways, 1967.
A-74. Zickefoose, P. W., Raton Bypass Study - After Phase. New Mexico
State University, November 1967.
A-75. Zwick, Charles J., "The Demand for Transportation Services in a
Growing Economy," Highway Research Record, Number 2, pp. 3-5,
1965.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
B. Social and Demographic
B-01. Ashford, N., and F. W. Halloway, The Effect of Age on Urban Travel
Behavior (Report No. 1), Florida State University Transportation
Center, June 1970. NTIS (PB-196-8A3).
B-02. Balkus, K., "Transportation Implications of Alternative Sketch
Plans," Highway Research Record, Number 180, pp. 52-70, 1967.
B-03. Buffington, J. L., D. Burke, W. Adkins, and H. Meuth, Experience
and Opinions of Residents Along Elevated, Depressed, and On-
Grade Freeway Sections in Houston, Texas - Economic & Environ-
mental Effects as Factors in Highway Decision Making, Texas
Transportation Institute, Texas Highway Department, Federal
Highway Administration, Report No. 2-1-71-148.
B-04. Burkhardt, J. E., "Impact of Highways on Urban Neighborhoods:
A Model of Social Change," Highway Research Record, Number 356,
pp. 85-94, 1971.
B-05. Chrlstensen, A. G., and A. N. Jackson, "Problems of Relocation-in a
Major City: Activities and Achievements in Baltimore, Maryland,"
Highway Research Record, Number 277, pp. 1-8, 1969.
B-06. Clawson, Marion, "Implications of Recreational Needs for Highway
Improvement," Highway Research Board, Bulletin 311, pp. 31-37,
1962.
B-07. Cooper, E., Methods of Improving Transportation Facilities for
Inner-City Dwellers, Howard University, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-095).
B-08. Dansereau, H. Kirk, "Five Years of Highway Research: A Sociological
Perspective," Highway Research Record, Number 75, pp. 76-81'.,
1965.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
B. Social and Demographic
B-09. Dansereau, H. Kirk, "Highway Development: Conmunity Attitudes
and Organization," Highway Research Record, Number 16,
pp. 44-59, 1963.
B-10. Ehrlich, T., Specialized Trip Distribution Study; Metropolitan
Recreation, Consortium of University, Urban Transportation
Center, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-096).
B-ll. Ellis, R. H., and R. D. Worrall, "Toward Measurement of Community
Impact: The Utilization of Longitudinal Travel Data to Define
Residential Linkages," Highway Research Record, Number 277,
pp. 25-39, 1969.
B-12. Falcocchio, J., Modal Choices and Travel Attributes of the Inner-
City Poor, Polytechnic Institute Brooklyn, September 1971.
NTIS (PB-206-149).
B-13. George, Stephen, Jr., "Transportation System Development and
Evaluation as Practiced in Seattle," Highway Research Record,
Number 238, pp. 116-122, 1968.
B-14. Goodwin, A., "Attitudes and Shopper Mobility in a Small City,"
Highway Research Record, Number 233, pp. 16-26, 1968.
B-15, Greytak, D., Residential Segregation, Metropolitan Decentralization
and the Journey to Work - Occasional Paper No. 3, Syracuse
University, Urban Transportation Institute, July 1970.
NTIS (PB-196-904).
B-16. Grier, George W., "Social Impact Analysis of an Urban Freeway
System," Highway Research Record. Number 305, pp. 63-74, 1970.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
B. Social and Demographic
B-17. Hinshaw, M., and K. Allott, "Environmental Preferences of Future
Housing Consumers," Journal of the American Institute of
Planners, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 102-107, March 1972.
B-18. Hyman, G. M., "Trip Distribution and Modal Split by Categories of
Households," Transportation Research, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 71-76,
April 1970.
s> B-19. Kalachek, E. D. and J. M. Goering, Transportation and Central City
oo Unemployment, Washington University, St. Louis, March 1970.
NTIS (PB-192-493).
B-20. Kanuit, Edraond L., andA. F. Eckartt, "Transportation Implications
of Employment Trends in Central Cities and Suburbs," Highway
Research Record, Number 187, pp. 1-14, 1967.
B-21. Koike, H., Planning Urban Transportation Systems; A Model for
Generating Socially Desirable Transportation Network Configura-
tions - Research Report No. 2, Washington University, Seattle
Urban Planning and Civil Engineering Departments. NTIS (P3-199-
290).
B-22. Kurkhardt, J. E., and M. T. Shaffer, "Social and Psychological
Impacts of Transportation Improvements," Transportation (NFTH),
Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 207-226, August 1972.
B-23. Lisco, T. E., "Value of Commuters Travel Time - A Study in Urban
Transportation," Highway Research Record, Number 245, p. 36,
1968.
B-24. Manarolla, J. A., The Trip to Work - A Submodule of a General
Metropolitan-Regional Area Man-Machine Simulation, Consortr'.um of
University, Urban Transportation Center, 1970. NTI5 (PB-ll;4-099),
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS.
B. Social and Demographic
B-25. McKain, W. C., "Community Response to Highway Improvements,"
Highway Research Record, Number 96, pp. 19-23, 1965.
B-26. McLean, E. L., and W. G. Adkins, "Freeway Effects on Residential
Mobility in Metropolitan Neighborhoods," Highway Research Record,
Number 356, pp. 95-104, 1971.
B-27. Meyburg, A. H., "Analysis of Relationships Between Intercity
Passenger Transportation and the Socio-economic Characteristics
of Metropolitan Areas," Transportation Research Forum-, Vol. 13,
No. 1, pp. 271-284, 1972.
B-28. Mouchahoir, G. E., The Relationship of Work Trips to Employment
Connected Social and Economic Factors., 1970. NTIS (PB-197-816).
B-29. Mouchahoir, G. E., and P. H. Wright, "Use of Socioeconomic
Indicators in Trip Attraction of Large Work Centers," Highway
Research Record, Number 392, pp. 139-142, 1972.
B-30. Nash, W., and J. Voss, "Analyzing the Socio-Economic Impact of
Urban Highways," Highway Research Board, Bulletin 268, pp. 80-
94, 1960.
B-31. Redding, M. J., and G. L. Peterson, "Adequacy of the Spatial
Organization of Residential Neighborhoods: The Residents' Point
of View," Highway Research Record, Number 410, pp. 64-65, 1972.
B-32. Ryan, C. R., et al., "An Evaluation of the Feasibility of Social
Diagnostic Techniques in the Transportation Planning Process,"
Highway Research Record, Number 410, pp. 8-23, 1972.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
B. Social and Demographic
B-33. Sawhill, Roy, Freeways and Residential Neighborhoods, Automotive
Safety Foundation, Washington, D. C., 1965.
B-34. Sinha, K. C., "Reliability Analysis in Land Use-Transportation
Planning," Highway Research Record. Number 392, pp. 157-158,
1972.
B-35. Skidmore, Owings 6. Merrill, Center City Transportation Project;
Urban Design Guideline. September 1970. NTIS (PB-198-600).
B-36. Smith, Wilbur & Associates, Inc., The Impact of Highways on
Selected Public Services, prepared for the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Public Roads, New Haven, Connecticut, 1960.
B-37. Stegman, Michael, "Accessibility Models and Residential Location,"
Jburnal of the American Institute of Planner!?, Vol. 37, No. 2,
pp. 100-110, March 1971.
B-38. Thiel, Floyd, Allocating Social Costs of Highway Transportation,
prepared for use at the Sixth U.S.-Japan Transportation Research
Panel Meeting in Tokyo, May 15-16, 1973.
B-39. Thiel, Floyd, "Indirect Effects of Highway Improvement," Highway
Research Record, Number 327, 1962.
B-AO. 'Thomas, T. C., G. I. Thompson, T. E. Lisco, and P. R. Stopher,
"The Value of Time for Commuting Motorists as a Function of Their
Income Level and Amount of Time Saved," Highway Research Ritcord,
Number 314, pp. 1-19, 1970.
B-41. Thomas, T. C., G. I. Thompson, and S. Reichman, "Value of Time Saved
by Trip Purpose with Discussion and Closure." Highway Research
Record. Number 369, pp. 104-117, 1971.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
B. Social and Demographic
B-42. Ueberschaer, M. H., "Choice of Routes on Urban Networks for the
Journey to Work," Highway Research Record, Number 369,
pp. 228-238, 1971.
B-43. Wachs, Martin, "Basic Approaches to the Measurement of Community
Values," Highway Research Record. Number 305, 1970.
B-AA. Watson, P. L., "Problems Associated with the Time and Cost Data
Used in Travel Choice Modeling and Valuation of Time,"
Highway Research Record, Number 369, pp. 1A8-158, 1971.
B-A5. Wheeler, J. 0., "Transport Inputs and Residential Rent Theory:
An Empirical Analysis," Geographical Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 1,
pp. A3-5A, January 1970.
B-A6. Wildermuth, Bruno, The Effect of Transportation on Residential
Location, Graduate Report, Institute of Transportation and
Traffic Engineering, University of California, April 196A.
B-A7. Wilson, A. G., "The Use of Entropy Maximizing Models in the Theory
of Trip Distribution, Mode Split and Route Split," Journal of
Transport Economics and Policy. Vol. 3, No. 1., pp. 108-126,
January 1969.
B-A8. Yapa, L., M. Polese, and J. Wolpert, "Interdependences of Commuting,
Migration, and Job Site Relocation," Economic Geography, Vil. A7,
No. 1, pp. 59-72, January 1971.
B-A9. Zupan, J. M., "Mode Choice: Implications for Planning," Highway
Research Record, Number 251, pp. 6-25, 1968.
B-50. Hill, Stuart L., and B. Frankland, "Mobility as a Measure of Neigh-
borhood," Highway Research Record. Number 187, pp. 33-A2, 7.967.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. Land Use and Land Value
C-01. Adkins, W. G., "Land Value Impacts of Expressways in Dallas,
Houston, and San Antonio, Texas," Highway Research Board,
Bulletin 227, pp. 50-65, 1959.
C-02. Adkins, William G., J. E. Frierson, and R. H. Thompson, Farm
Land Values and Rural Road Service in Ellis County, Texas
1955-58, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A & M College,
College Station, Texas, June 1960.
C-03. Ashley, R. H., and Berard, W. F., "Interchange Development Along
180 Miles of 1-94," Highway Research Record. Number 96,
pp. 46-58, 1965.
C-04. Bahl, R. W., Jr., A Bluegrass Leapfrog. Bureau of Business
Research, College of Commerce, University of Kentucky, 1963.
C-05. Barden, R., and J. H. Thompson, The Urban Frontier - Occasional
Paper No. A, Syracuse University, Urban Transportation Institute,
1971. NTIS (PB-204-056).
C-06.. Borchert, John R. , Beltline Commercial-Industrial Development -
A Case Study in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, November 1960.
C-07. Brand, D. , B. Barber, and M. Jacobs, "Technique for Relating
Transportation Improvements and Urban Development Patterns,"
Highway Research Record, Number 207, pp. 53-67, 1967.
C-08. Carroll, Donald D., J. R. Borchert, J. Schwinder, and P. M. Raup,
The Economic Impact, of Highway Development Upon Land Use and
Value: Development of Methodology and Analysis of Selected High-
way Segments in Minnesota, University of Minnesota, Sept. 1958.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. Land Use and Land Value
C-09. Cherner, M., "Property Values as Affected by Highway Landscape
Developments," Highway Research Record. NumbSr 53, pp. 4-7, 1964.
G-10. Cockfield, R. W., "Proposed Logic Sequence for Designing Prelimi-
nary Urban Land Use Plans," Highway Research Record, Number 399,
pp. 62-70, 1972.
C-ll. Cribbins, P. D., W. T. Hill, and H. 0. Seagraves, "Economic Impact
of Selected Sections of Interstate Routes on Land Value and Use,"
Highway Research Record. Number 75, pp. 1-31, 1965.
C-12. Davis, J. Tait, "Parkways, Values and Development in the Washington
Metropolitan Region," Highway Research Record, Number 16,
pp. 32-43, 1963.
C-13. Eighray, T. H., and J. J. Coyle, Toward a Simulation of Land Use
for Highway Interchange Communities, Pennsylvania State
University, 1965.
C-14. Evans, E. E., Impact of Kokomo By-Pass. 1950 to 1964, Purdue
University, August 1965.
C-15. Eyerly, R. W., Property Formation, Real Estate Value, and Land Use
in Four York County Interchange Communities: An Interim ReportT
Pennsylvania State University, 1965.
C-16. Flaherty, M. C., "Commercial Highway Service Districts and the
Interstate," Highway Research Record, Number 96, Washington,
D.C., 1965.
C-17. Fleischman, E. R., The Impact After Seven Years of a Highway
Improvement in a Small City, Purdue University, 1968.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. Land Use and Land Value
C-18. Garrison, William L., and M. E. Marts, Influence of Highway
Improvements on Urban Land - A Graphic Summary. University
of Washington, May 1958.
C-19. Goldberg, M., "Transportation, Urban Land Values, and Rento:
A Synthesis," Land Economics. Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 153-162,
May 1970.
C-20. Goldberg, M., "Economics of Transportation Corridors: Further
Empirical Analysis," Highway Research Record, Number 410,
pp. 37-51, 1972.
C-21. Goldberg, M., "An Evaluation of the Interaction Between Urban
Transport and Land Use Systems," Land Economics. Vol. 48,
pp. 338-346, 1972.
C-22. Golden, J. S., "Land Values in Chicago: Before and After
Expressway Construction," Chicago Area Transportation Study,
65 pp., October 1968.
C-23. Hamburg, J. R., G. J. Brown, and M. Schneider, "Impact of
Transportation Facilities on Land Development," Highway
Research Record. Number 305, pp. 172-178, 1970.
C-24. Hammel, L. V., K. C. Maffitt, and R. R. Roberts, "Transportation
Considerations of Regional Shopping Centers," Traffic Engineer-
ing, Inst. Traffic Engineering. Vol. 42, No. 11, pp. 14-5:1,
August 1972.
C-25. Harvey, Robert 0., and W. A. V. Clark, "The Nature and Economics
of Urban Sprawl," Land Economics. Vol. 71, pp. 1-9, February 1965.
IMPACTS
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X
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. Land Use and Land Value
C-26. Huhtanen, Robert J., et al., A Study of the Effects of Freeways
on Central Business Districts, Clark University, Worcester,
Massachusetts, February 1961.
C-27. Isard, W., and P. Liossatos, "On Location Analysis for Urban
and Regional Growth Situations," Annals of Regional Science,
Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-27, June 1972.
C-28. Isibor, E. I., Modeling the Impact of Highway Improvements on
the Value of Adjacent Land Parcels, Purdue University,
Indiana State Highway Commission, 1970.
C-29. Kentucky, University of, The Effect of the Louisville Watterson
Expressway on Land Use and Land Values, Lexington, Kentucky, 1960.
C-30. Kentucky, University of, Bureau of Business Research, College of
Commerce, Certain Economic Effects of the Lexington Northern
Beltline, Lexington, Kentucky, 1960.
C-31. Lehr, R. L., Relationship of the Highway Interchange and the Use
of Land in the State of Oklahoma, Oklahoma Center of Urban
and Regional Studies, June 1965. NTIS (PB-172-988).
C-32. Lemly, J. H., "Changes in Land Values Along Atlanta's Expressway,"
Highway Research Board, Bulletin 227. pp. 1-20, 1959.
C-33. Lemly, J. H., Expressway Influence on Land Use and Value, Atlanta
1941-1956. Georgia State College, School of Business Administra-
tion, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1958.
C-3A. Lewis, J. E., "Transportation Theory of Urban Land Rent," Right
of. Way. Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 23-28, April 1972.
IMPACTS
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X
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X
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X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. Land Use and Land Value
C-35.
C-36.
Long, G.
Study:
A., G. D. Long, and R. W. Hooker, A Corridor Land Use
The Impact of an Interstate Highway on Land Use Values,
Private Investment and Land Use in Southwestern Wyoming, Wyoming
University, FHWA, October 1972.
Massachusetts Department of Commerce and Development, Future
Development of Eastern Massachusetts Route 495 and Fringe Area,
1963 and 1975-1990, Boston, Massachusetts, 1967.
C-37. Milgram, Grace, The City Expands: A Study of the Conversion of
Land from Rural to Urban Use, Philadelphia 1945-1962. University
of Pennsylvania, Institute for Environmental Studies, March 1967.
C-38. Neuzil, D. R., The Highway Interchange Problem: Land Use Develop-
ment and Control, University of California, Berkeley, Calif.,
1963.
C-39. Northern Virginia Regional Planning and Economic Development^
Commission, Highway Influence, Northern Virginia Region,
Arlington, Virginia, July 1962.
C-40. O'Flaherty, C. A., "People, Transport Systems, and the Urban Scene:
An Overview - I," Intl. J. Environmental Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3,
pp. 265-285, July 1972.
C-41. Oklahoma, University of, Research Institute, The Relationship of
the Highway Interchange and the Use of Land in the State of
Oklahoma. Volumes I and II, Oklahoma Center of Urban and
Regional Studies, 1965.
IMPACTS
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C. Land Use and Land Value
C-42. Pendleton, W. C., "Relation of Highway Accessibility to Urban
Real Estate Values," Highway Research Record, Number 16,
pp. 14-23, 1963.
C-43. Philbrick, Allen, Analyses of the Geographical Patterns of Grosa
Land Uses and Changes in Numbers of Structures in Relation, to
Major Highways in the Lower Half of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan, Michigan State University, 1961.
C-44. Rockey, Melvin B., and J. C. Frey, Farms and New Highways;
Problems and Adjustments, Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, Pennsylvania, 1964.
C-45. Rogers, Andrei, The Time Lag of Factors Influencing Land Develop-
ment, (in collaboration with F. S. Chapin, Jr., T, G. Donnelly,
and S. F. Weiss), Institute for Research in Social Science,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C., October 1963.
C-46. Sauerlender, 0. H., and R. B. Donaldson, Predicting Development
at Non-Urban Interchange Sites on Pennsylvania Interstate
Highways, Pennsylvania State University, 1965.
C-47. Schmidt, Blaine G., Delaware Highway Impact Study, Phase II Report
(1959-1963), Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University
of Delaware, 1967.
C-48. Schneider, M., "The Access and Development Prototype Project,"
Highway Research Record, Number 293, pp. 147-154, 1969.
IMPACTS
3
r-1
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X
X
X
X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
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I. HIGHWAYS
C. Land Use and Land Value
C-49. Spears, J. D., and C. G. Smith, A Study of the Land Development
and Utilization in Interchange Areas Adjacent to Interstate 40
in Tennessee, Tennessee University, Tennessee Department of
Highways, 1970.
C-50. Stein, Martin, "Highway Interchange Area Development - Some Recent
Findings," Public Roads, Vol. 35, No. 11, pp. 241-251,
December 1969.
C-51. Stern, M. 0., "A Planning Model for Transportation in Urban
Activity Centers." Highway Research Record, Number 367,
pp. 99-106, 1971.
C-52. Swerdloff, C. N., and J. R. Stowers, "A Test of Some First Genera-
tion Residential Land Use Models," Highway Research Record.
Number 126, pp. 38-59, 1966.
C-53. Thiel, Floyd I., "Highway Interchange Area Development," Highway
Research Record, Number 96, pp. 24-45, 1965.
C-54. Walsh, S. P., "Some Effects of Limited Access Highways on Adjacent
Land Use," Highway Research Record. Number 229, 1968.
C-55. Wootan, C. V., and C. R. Haning, Changes in Land Value, Land Use,
and Business Activity Along a Section of the Interstate Highway
System in Austin, Texas, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas
A & M College, College Station, Texas, 1960.
C-56. Worral, R. D., "Census Data, Land Use, and Transportation Modeling,"
Highway Research Board Special Reports, No. 121, pp. 63-67, 1971.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
D. Political-Legal
D-01. Bishop, A. Bruce, et al., Socio-Economic and Community Factors
in Planning Urban Freeways. 1969. NTIS (PB-190-5A4).
D-02. Colcord, F. C., Urban Transportation Decision Making: Houston.
A Case Study. 1970. NTIS (PB-206-224).
D-03. Courtney, J. F., T. D. Klastorin, and'T. W. Ruefli, "Goal
Programming Approach to Urban-Suburban Location Preferences,"
Management Science, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. B-258 - B-268,
February 1972.
D-04. Coyle, J. J., et al., "Interchange Protection and Community
Structures." Highway Research Record, Number 75, pp. 62-7A,
1965.
D-05. Fielding, Gordon J., "Structuring Citizen Involvement in
Freeway Planning," Highway Research Record. Number 380,
pp. 23-36, 1972.
D-06. Hebert, R., riighways to Nowhere; The Politics of City Transpor-
tation, B.jbs-Merrill Company, Inc., New York, 1972.
D-07. Hill, Morris, "A Method for the Evaluation of Transportation
Plans," Highway Research Record, Number 180, pp. 21-34,
1967.
D-08. Hill, Stuart, "Watts-Century Freeway," Highway Research Board.
Special Report No. 105, pp. 117-122, 1969.
IMPACTS
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I. HIGHWAYS
D. Political-Legal
D-09. Journal Drban Transportation Corporation, Urban Transportation
Planning - Sources of Information on Urban Transportation,
Report No. 4, June 1968. NTIS (PB-185-525).
D-10. Lupo, Alan, et al., Rites of Way: The Politics of Transportation
in Boston and the U.S. City, Little, Brown & Company,
Boston, Massachusetts, 1971.
D-ll. M.I.T. Urban Systems Laboratory, Community Values in Highway
Location and Design. (Report No. 71-5), December 1971.
D-12. M.I.T. Urban Systems Laboratory, The Impact of Highways Upon
Environmental Values. (Report No. USL-69-1), March 1969.
D-13. Petersilia, Michael P., Community and Environmental Factors in
Highway Location: A Case Study. M.S. Thesis (C.E.), 1972.
D-14. Pikarsky, Milton, "Comprehensive Planning for the Chicago
Crosstown Expressway," Highway Research Record, Number 130-,
pp. 35-51, 1967.
D-15. Real Estate Research Corporation, A Study of the Impact of
Major Highways on Local Tax Bases, prepared for the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Public Roads, 1960.
D-16. Rogers, A. C., "The Urban Freeway: An Experiment in Team
Design and Decision-Making," Highway Research Record,
Number 220, pp. 20-28, 1968.
IMPACTS
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ON
I. HIGHWAYS
D. Political-Legal.
D-17. Rothblatt, Donald H., Regional Planning; The Appalachian
Experience, D. C. Heath and Company, Lexington, Massachusetts,
1971.
D-18. Scheiber, W. A., The Metropolitan Washington Council of
Governments, National Academy of Engineering, October 1973.
D-19. Tennessee State Planning Commission, Highway Access Areas in
Tennessee: A Study of Problems and a Suggested Program for
Orderly Land Use Development, Publication No. 321, Nashville,
Tennessee, 1962.
D-20. Teska, R. B., "Social, Economic, and Environmental Impact; of
a System of High-Accessibility Corridors," Highway Research
Record, Number 356, pp. 119-129, 1971.
D-21. Tuzo, G. C., The Evolution of the D. C. Highway System,
Consortium of University, Urban Transportation Center,
June 1971. NTIS (PB-204-935).
D-22. Wade, Philip E., Highway Impact Analysis as a Basis for Project
Implementation, M.I.T., M.S. Thesis (C.E.), February 1971.
D-23. Washington State University, Highway Research Section, A Study
of the Social, Economic and Environmental Impact of Highway
Transportation Facilities on Urban Communities. 1968.
NTIS (PB-197-626).
D-2A. Wickstrom, G. V., "Integrated Measurement Framework for Tianspor-
tation Planning," Journal of Transportation Engineering,
American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 98, No. Te2,
pp. 275-283, May 1972.
IMPACTS
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01. Allen, W. B., Developing and Testing of a Behavioral Modal Split
Model. 1971. NTIS (PB-20A-941).
02. Ashford, N. and F. M. Halloway, The Effect of Age on Urban Travel
Behavior (Report No. 1), Florida State University Transportation
Center, June 1970. NTIS (PB-196-843).
03. Bailey, R. F., The Travel Patterns of Persons Residing in High-
Density Urban Areas, Polytechnic Institute Brooklyn, June 1972.
NTIS (PB-207-179).
04. Barnes, C. W., Who Rides the Bus? Passenger Charactt-ristics and
Riding Patterns of the Sacramento Transit Authority. 1970.
NTIS (PB-197-821).
05. Boyce, D. E., "Notes on the Methodology of Urban Transportation
Impact Analysis," Highway Research Board Special Reports,
No. Ill, pp. 41-44, 1970.
06. Boyce, D. E., B. Allen, R. R. Mudge, P. B. Slater, and
A. M. Isserman, Impact of Rapid Transit on Suburban Residential
Property Values and Land Development, Pennsylvania University,
Regional Science Department, Wharton School, Nov. 1972.
07. California Business & Transportation Agency, Transp01;tation-
Employment Project, January 1970. NTIS (PB-208-119).
08. Carlin, Alan and Wohl, Martin, An Economic Re-Evaluation of the
Proposed Los Angeles Rapid Transit System, RAND Corporation,
Santa Monica, California, (Paper P-3918), 1968.
IMPACTS
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II. MASS TRANSIT
09. Colcord, F. C., Urban Transportation Decision Making; Houaton.
A Case Study. 1970. NTIS (PB-206-22A).
10. Cooper, E., Methods of Improving Transportation Faci?..itie3 for
Inner-City Dwellers. Howard University, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-095).
11. Cort, C. J., "The Evaluation of Travelling Time," Journal of
Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 279-286,
September 1969.
12. Davis, Frederick W., "Proximity to a Rapid Transit System as a
Factor in Residential Property Value," The Appraisal Journal,
Vol. 38, pp. 554-572, October 1970.
13. Falcocchio, J., Modal Choices and Travel Attributes of the Inner-
City Poor. Polytechnic Institute Brooklyn, September 1971.
NTIS (PB-206-149).
14. Gannon, Colin A., et al., The Impact of Rail Rapid Transit Systems
on Commercial Office Development; The Case of the Philadelphia
Lindenwold Speedline. University of Pennsylvania, June 1972.
15. Gilman, W. C. & Company, The Radial Express and Suburban Crosstown
Bus Rider - Final Report. 1966. NTIS (PB-174-220).
16. Greytak, D., Residential Segregation. Metropolitan Decentralization
of the Journey to Work - Occasional Paper No. 3, Syracuse
University, Urban Transportation Institute, July 1970.
NTIS (PB-196-904).
IMPACTS
41
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17. Gutowsky, A. R., A Model for Predicting Transit Riderahip
(Interim Report No. 7), April 1971. NTIS (PB-199-.S53).
18. Hamburg, J. R., G. J. Brown and M. Schneider, "Impact: of Trans-
portation Facilities on Land Development," Highway Research
Record, Number 305, pp. 172-178, 1970.
19. Heenan, G. Warren, "The Economic Effect of Rapid Transit on
Real Estate Development," The Appraisal Journal, Vol. 36,
pp. 213-224, April 1968.
20. Highway Research Board Special Reports. No. Ill, pp. 50-53, 1970,
"General Discussion of the Impact of the Bay Area Rapid Transit
System on the San Francisco Metropolitan Region."
21. Journal Urban Transportation Corp., Urban Transportation Planning-
Sources of Information on Urban Transportation, Report No. A.
June 1968. NTIS (PB-185-525).
22. Kalachek, E. D. and M. M. Goering, Transportation and Central City
Unemployment, Washington University, St. Louis, March 1970.
NTIS (PB-192-493).
23. Kasoff, M. J., Socioeconomic Factors Underlying Public Transit Use
in the Journey to Work - Occasional Paper No. 1, Syracuse
University, June 1970. NTIS (PB-197-575).
24. Koike, H., Planning Urban Transportation Systems; A Model for
Generating Socially Desirable Transportation Network Configurations
- Research Report No. 2, Washington University, Sejtrie Urban
Planning and Civil Engr. Departments. NTIS (PB-199-290).
IMPACTS
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II. MASS TRANSIT
25. Kurkhardt, J. E. and M. T. Shaffer, "Social and Psychological
Impacts of Transportation Improvements," Transportation (NETH),
Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 207-26, August 1972.
26. Langfield, S. C., The Balanced and Orderly Development of the Site
in Close Proximity to a Metro Station as a Contributor to a More
Healthy and Economically Viable Urban Environment In the Washington
Metropolitan Area, Consortium of University, Urban Transportation
Center, June 1971. NTIS (PB-203-783).
27. Lee, J. W., "Framework for Using Social Indicators to Monitor,
Evaluate and Improve a Public Transportation System," Highway
Research Record, Number A10, pp. 24-36, 1972.
28. Lewis, J. E., "Transportation Theory of Urban Land Rent," Right
of Way. Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 23-28, April 1972.
29. Lisco, T. E., "Value of Commuters Travel Time - A Study in Urban
Transportation," Highway Research Record. Number 2'i5, p. 36, 1968.
30. Arthur D. Little, Inc., Center City Transportation Project -
Descriptive Summary. September 1970. NTIS (PB-198--610).
31. Manarolla, J. A., The Trip to Work - A Submodule of u General
Metropolitan-Regional Area Man-Machine Simulation, Consortium
of University, Urban Transportation Center, 1970. NTIS (PB-19A-099)
32. Meyburg, A. H., "Analysis of Relationships Between Intercity
Passenger Transportation and the Socio-economic Characteristics
of Metropolitan Areas," Transportation Research Foi:um, Vol. 13,
No, 1, pp. 271-84, 1972.
IMPACTS
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42. Simpson and Curtin, The Traffic Rider. 1968; Interim Report No. 1.
1966. NTIS (PB-195-838).
43. Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Center City Transportation Project;
Urban Design Guideline. September 1970. NTIS (PB-198-600).
44. Stanford Research Institute, Future Urban Transportat:ion Systems;
Impacts on Urban Life and Form-Final Report II, Merle Park,
California, March 1968. NTIS (PB-178-266).
45. Studholme, E. D., Metro Impact in Arlington County: A Case Study
and Evaluation of a Transit Growth Model, Consortium of University
Urban Transportation Center, June 1971. NTIS (PB-204-934).
46. Sweek, J. E., Evaluating the Centr.al City Access Opportunity
Provided by a Public Transportation System - Research Report No. 1,
Washington University, Seattle, 1970. NTIS (PB-196-140).
47. Teska, R. B., "Social, Economic, and Environmental In.pscts of A
System of High-Accessibility Corridors," Highway Research Record,
Number 356, pp. 119-129, 1971.
48. Tuzo, G. C., The Evolution of the D.C. Highway System, Consortium
of University, Urban Transportation Center, June 1971.
NTIS (PB-204-935).
49. Voorhees, Alan M, & Associates, Inc., A Systems Analysis of Transit
Routes and Schedules, November 1969. NTIS (PB-189-269).
IMPACTS
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33. Meyer, J. R., J. F. Kain and M. Wohl, The Urban Transportation
Problem. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1965.
34. Murin, W. J., The Evolution of Metro. Consortium of University,
Urban Transportation Center, 1970. NTIS (PB-194-1CO).
35. Notess, C. B., "Access to Jobs and Willingness to Travel,"
Highway Research Record. Number 392,.pp. 143-146, 3972.
36.. O'Flaherty, C. A., "People, Transport Systems, and the Urban
Scene: An Overview - I," Intl. J. Environmental Studies,
Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 265-85, July 1972.
37. Official Proceedings, Fourth International Conference on Urban
Transportation, Pittsburgh, March 10-12, 1969.
38. Reinsburg, Mark, Growth and Change in Metropolitan Areas and
Their Relation to Metropolitan Transportation, Northwestern
University, Transportation Center, Evanston, Illinois, 1961.
39. Romanoh, Eliahu, Impact of Mass Transit Construction on the
Massachusetts Economy. Regional Science Research Center,
Cambridge, Massachusetts (Paper No. 72-2), 1972.
40. Roszner, E. S., The Impact of Rapid Transit: An Evaluation of
the Proposed Allegheny County Transit Expressway Revenue Line.
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Transportation Research Institute, July 1971.
41. Sheldon, Nancy W. and R. Brandwein, The Economic and Social Impact
of Investments in Public Transit, Harbridge House, Inc. Published
by Lexington Books, Lexington, Massachusetts, 1973.
IMPACTS
01
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50. Wachs, M., "Employment, Mobility, and Public Transportation in
Chicago: A Survey of Attitudes and Behavior," Highway Research
Record, Number 148, pp. 142-151, 1971.
51. Wickstrom, G. V., "Integrated Measurement Framework for Transporta-
tion Planning," Journal of Transportation Eng., American Society
of Civil Engineers, Vol. 98, No. Te2, pp. 275-283, May 1972.
52. Zwick, Charles J., "The Demand for Transportation Services in a
Growing Economy," Highway Research Record, Number 2, pp. 3-5, 1965.
IMPACTS
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III. WASTEWATER FACILITIES
01. Grava, Sigurd, Urban Planning Aspects of Water Pollution Control,
Columbia University Press, New York, 1969.
02. Greenberg, Michael R., "Issues in Waste Water Treatment Facility Location,"
Growth and Change: A Journal of Regional Development, Vol. 3, pp. 38-43,
January 1972.
03. Li, C. Y., "Sewerage Plan Involves Open Space Preservation," Civil
Engineering. Vol. A3, pp. 85-86, January 1973.
04. Metropolitan Council of Governments (Washington Metropolitan Area),
Department of Health and Environmental Protection, Analysis of the Joint
Interactions of Water Supply, Public Policy, and Land Development
Patterns in an Expanding Metropolitan Area, Final Report to the Office
of Water Resources Research, U:S. Department of the Interior, September,
1973.
05. Metropolitan Council of Governments (Washington Metropolitan Area),
Water and Sewerage Plan and Program 1971-1972. 1971.
06. Milgrara, Grace, The City Expands, Institute for Environmental Studies,
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, prepared for the
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, March 1967.
07. Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Planning Authority, Regional SeweragePlan,
November 1971.
08. Rivkin/Carson, Inc., Population Growth in Relation to Water Resources
Policy, Washington, D. C., October 1971.
IMPACTS
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III. WASTEWATER FACILITIES
09. Sdn Diego Comprehensive Planning Organization, Water Distribution and
Sanitary Sewerage Systems: Background and Policy Study, 1972.
10. Stansbury, Jeffrey, "Suburban Growth: A Case Study," Population Bulletin,
Vol. 28, April 1972.
11. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region II, Wastewater Treatment
Facilities Grants for Nassau and Suffolk Counties. New York, July 1972.
12. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III, Bethany J'.each (Delaware)
Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant. Environmental Impact: Statement,
December 1972.
13. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IV, Cobb County (Georgia)
Sewerage Improvement Project, Environmental Impact Statenient, July 1971.
1A. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region VI, Wastewatei Facilities,
Hot Springs, Arkansas, Environmental Impact Statement, October 1972.
15. Updegraff, Gail E., "The Economics of Sewage Disposal in a Coastal Urban
Area: A Case Study of the Monterey Peninsula, California," Natural
Resources Journal, Vol. 11, pp. 373-389, April 1971.
IMPACTS
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IV. MODELS
01. Alonso, William, Location and Land Use; Toward a General Theory of
Land Rent. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1965.
02. Birch, David, R. Atkinson, S. Sandstrom, and L. Stack, "The New Haven
Laboratory: An Overview," Proceedings of the 1973 Summer Computer
Simulation Conference, Montreal, Canada, July 1973.
03. Blackburn, James, RIVERZ - A River Basin Planning Model, Preliminary Report
for the National Sanitation Foundation and Center for Environmental Study,
December 1972.
04. Brigham, E. F., A Model of Residential Land Values. RAND Corporation,
Santa Monica, California, 1964.
05. Catanese, Anthony J., New Perspectives in Urban Transportation Research.
Lexington Books, Lexington, Massachusetts, 1972.
06. Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, Jobs, People and Land; Bay Area
Simulation Study (BASS), Institute of Urban and Regional Development,
University'of California, Berkeley, California, Special Report No. 6, 1968.
07. Chapin, F., Jr., "A Model for Simulating Residential Development," Journal
of the American Institute of Planners. Vol. XXXI, No. 2, pp. 120-125,
May 1965.
08. CONSAD. Research Corporation, Impact Studies: Northeast Corridor Transportation
Project, Volumes I, II, III, IV, prepared for the Northeast Corridor Transpor-
tation Project, Office of High-Speed Ground Transportation, U.S. Department
of Transportation, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970.
IMPACTS
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IV. MODELS
09. Crecine, John P., "TOMM (Time Oriented Metropolitan Model)," Community
Renewal Program Technical Bulletin. No. 6, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,
January 1964.
10. De Leeuw, Frank, The Distribution of Housing Services: A Mathematical
Model. Working Paper 208-1, The Urban Institute, Washington, D. C., 1971.
11. Ellickson, Bryan, "Jurisdictional Fragmentation and P.esidential Choice,"
American Economic Review, Vol. 61, pp. 334-339, May 1971.
12. Engle, Robert F., Ill, F. M. Fisher, J. R. -Harris, and J. Rothenberg,
"An Econometric Simulation Model of Intra-Metropolitan Housing Location:
Housing, Business,. Transportation, and Local Government," American Economic
Review. Vol. LXII, No. 2, pp. 87-97, May 1972.
13. Environmental Impact Center, Inc., A Methodology for Assessing Environmental
Impact of Water Resources Development, First and Second Quarterly Reports
to the Office of Water Resources Research, Department of the Interior,
1972, 1973.
14. Forrester, Jay W., Urban Dynamics, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
1969.
15. Garn, Harvey A., and R. H. Wilson, A Critical Look at Urban Dynamics: The
Forrester Model and Public Policy, The Urban Institute, Washington, D. C.,
1970.
16. Ginn, J. Royce, The NBER Prototype Urban Simulation Model, Preliminary Draft,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., March 1973.
IMPACTS
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IV. MODELS
17. Goldberg, Michael A., "An Industrial Location Model for the San Francisco
Bay Area," Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 1, pp. 60-73, December 1967.
18. Goldner, William, "The Lowry Model Heritage," Journal of the American Institute
of Planners, Vol. XXXVII, Number 2, pp. 100-110, March 1971.
19. Goldner, William, Projective Land Use Model, Bay Area Transportation Study
Commission Technical Report 219, September 1968.
20. Hamilton, H. R., S. E. Goldstone, F. J. Cessario, D. C. Sweet, D. E. Boyce,
and A. L. Pugh III, Final Report on a Dynamic Model of Che Economy of the
Susquehanna River Basin, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio, 1966.
21. Hamilton, H. R., S. E. Goldstone, J. W. Milliman, A. L. Pugh III, E. B. Roberts,
A. Zellner, Systems Simulation for Regional Analysr.s: An Application to
River-Basin Planning. The M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1969.
22. Hester, James, Jr., Systems Models of Urban Growth and Development, M.I.T.
Urban Systems Laboratory, Cambridge, Massachusetts, November 1969.
23. Hill, Donald M., "A Growth Allocation Model for the Iloston Region," Journal
of the American Institute of Planners, Volume XXXI, Number 2, pp. 111-120,
May 1965.
24. Hoover, Edgar M., The Location of Economic Activity, McGraw-Hill Book
Company, Inc., New York, 1948.
25. Isard, Walter, Methods of Regional Analysis, M.I.T. Iress, Cambridge,
Massachusetts, 1960.
26. Kadanoff, Leo P., "An Examination of Forrester's "Urban Dynamics',"
Simulation, pp. 261-268, June 1971.
IMPACTS
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IV. MODELS
27. Kain, John F., "The Journey-To-Work as a Determinant of Residential Location,"
Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 9,
pp. 137-160, 1962.
28. Kain, John F., and G. K. Ingram, The NBER Urban Simu.lation Model as a Theory
of Urban Spatial Structure, Preliminary Draft, Nat:\onal Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., October 1972.
29. Kaiser, Edward J., A Producer Model for Residential Growth, Center for Urban
and Regional Studies, Institute for Research in Social Science, University
of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N. C., November 19(18.
30. Kaiser, E. J., R. W. Massie, S. F. Weiss, and J. E. Smith, "Predicting the
Behavior of Predevelopment Landowners on the Urban Fringe," Journal of the
American Institute of Planners, September 1968.
31. Kilbridge, M., R. O'Block, and P. Teplity, A Conceptual Framework for Urban
Planning Models, Harvard University Graduate School of Business Administra-
tion, Boston, Massachusetts, January 1968.
32. Lakshmanan, T. R., and W. G. Hansen, "A Retail Market Potential Model,"
Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 134-143,
May 1965.
33. Lathrop, George T., and J. R. Hamburg, "An Opportunity-Accessibility Model
for Allocating Regional Growth," Journal of the American Institute of
Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 95-103, May 1965.
34. Little, Arthur D., Inc., Model of the San Francisco Housing Market, San
Francisco Community Renewal Program Technical Paper No. 8, January 1966.
IMPACTS
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IV. MODELS
35. Lowry, Ira S., A Model of Metropolis, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica,
California, 1964.
36. Lowry, Ira S., "Seven Models of Urban Development: A Structural Comparison,"
Highway Research Board, Special Report No. 97, pp. 121-153, 1967.
37. Lowry, Ira S., "A Short Course in Model Design," Journal of the American
Institute of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 158-166, May 1965.
38. Markland, Robert E., and P. J. Grandstaff, "Analyzing Urban Economic Change
Using Computer Simulation," Proceedings of the 1973 Summer Computer
Simulation Conference, Montreal, Canada, July 1973.
39. Putman, S. H., "Developing and Testing an Intra-Regional Model," Regional
Studies, Vol. 4, pp. 473-490, December 1970.
40. Putman, S. H., "Intraurban Employment Forecasting Models: A Review and A
Suggested New Model Construct," Journal of the American Institute of
Planners. Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 216-230, July 1972.
41. Putman, S. H., "Intraurban Industrial Location Model Design and Implementation,"
Papers of the Regional Science Association, Vol. 19, pp. 199-214, 1967.
42. Putman, Stephen H., Preliminary Results from an Integrated Transportation and
Land Use Models Package, Draft, University of Pennsylvania, August 1972
(Revised January 1973).
43. Schlager, Kenneth J., "A Land Use Plan Design Model," Journal of the American
Institute of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 103-111, May 1965.
IMPACTS
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IV. MODELS
44. Schroeder, Walter W., and J. L. Sullivan, "New Tools for Urban Decision-
Making," Proceedings of the 1973 Summer Computer Simulation Conference.
Montreal, Canada, July 1973.
45. Soberman, Richard M., "Approaches to Regional Transportation Models,"
Transportation Research Forum, pp. 357-366, 1966.
46. Steger, Wilbur A., "The Pittsburgh Urban Renewal Simulation Model,"
Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 144-150,
May 1965.
47. Swanson, C. V., and R. J. Waldmann, "A Simulation Model of Economic Growth
Dynamics," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, Vol. 36,
pp, 314-322, September 1970.
48. Thompson, Wilbur R., A Preface to Urban Economics. Johns Hopkins Press,
Baltimore, Maryland, 1968.
49. Tiebout, Charles, The Community Economic Base Study, Committee for Economic
Development, Supplementary Paper No. 16, New York, 1962.
50. Traffic Research Corporation, Reliability Test Report: EMPIRIC Land Use
Forecasting Model, prepared for Boston Regional Planning Project, New
York, 1964.
51. Traffic Research Corporation, Review of Existing Land Use Forecasting
Techniques, prepared for Boston Regional Planning Project, New York, 1963'.
52. Weber, Alfred, Theory of the Location of Industries, University of Chicago
Press, 1929.
IMPACTS
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SELECTED WATER
RESOURCES ABSTRACTS
/TNPUT TRANSACTION FORM
W
SECONDARY IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION AND WASTEWATER
INVESTMENTS: REVIEW AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bascom, S.E., Cooper, K.G., Howell, M.P., Makrides,
A.C., and Rabe, F.T.
Environmental Impact Center
55 Chapel Street
Newton, Massachusetts 02158
Environmental Protection Agency
1HA095 21 ART 11
EQC 317
Final
Environmental Protection Agency Report No. EPA-600/5-75-002,
dated January, 1975
The Bibliography contains a review of over fifty major studies and three
hundred relevant reports related to secondary environmental impacts on various
forms of public investments, e.g. land based transportation and wastewater collect-
ion systems. The Bibliography is organized into four sections:
Section I is subdivided into: (a) a review of secondary impacts classified
according to type of investment (highways, mass transit, and wastewater collect-
ion systems); (b) where possible, according to type of secondary effects (eco-
nomic, social and land use); and (c) a brief summary of modeling techniques
which may be utilized to analyze and project likely secondary environmental
impacts.
Section II condenses the findings of about fifty major studies related to
land transportation and wastewater treatment systems.
Section III is an annotated bibliography of about three hundred relevant
studies.
Section IV classifies these literature studies by: (a) impact; (b) investment;
(c) geographic area examined;(d) type of study; and (e) type of analytic
techniques used in assessing secondary effects.
Bibliography; Publications: Analytic techniques; Regional/Community development;
Land Use; Water Resources Planning; Data Collection; Environment; Investments;
Local government; Wastewater treatment
Wastewater Treatment; Highways; Investments; Data Retrieval
10B
D. Robert Scherer
Send To:
WATER RESOURCES SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION CENTER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20240
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
-------
RD-674
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Washington. D.C. 2O46O
Official Business
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Book
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