United States
Environmental Protection
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Public Affairs
Washington DC 20460
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The Greenhouse Effect:
How It Can Change
Our Lives
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The Greenhouse Effect:
How It Can Change Our Lives
Wiih the Greenhouse
Effect, the human race
enters a new phase dealing
with major adjustments in
lift; on the planet because of
changes in the environment
brought about by human
activities. This issue of h'PA
Journal explores the
phenomenon known as the
Greenhouse Effect and
explains its projected
impacts.
EPA Administrator Lee
Thomas leads the issue with
a statement about this
planetary problem which we
face and what it means to
him.
Next is an article by a I !.S.
scientist who is an expert on
tbi! Greenhouse Effect. I le
defines the phenomenon and
explains for (he reader what
causes it. Then seven articles
follow, projecting
Greenhouse impacts on U.S.
agriculture, forests, sea level.
electricity demand, water
resources, animal species,
and air pollution. The
articles on impacts are
introduced in a piece jointly
authored by two EPA
officials who explain how the
projections have been made.
Following these articles is
a piece by the Electric Power
Research Institute describing
the challenges and
uncertainties the Greenhouse
Effect poses lo the electric
utility industry, one of the
industries involved in this
environmental concern.
Articles from three foreign
countries then describe what
the Greenhouse Kffect may
mean to them and what they
are doing to prepare for it.
The countries are the
Netherlands, Ganada. and
Japan. A global perspective
on changes the Greenhouse
Effect may portend is
presented by William 11.
Mansfield ll'l. Deputy
Executive Director of the
U.N. Environment
Programme. The strategic
implications inherent in
global shifts in farming and
other factors in human life
are explored by William
Nitze, U.S. Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State for
Environment, 1 lealth, and
Natural Resources.
An explanation of how the
wheels are beginning to turn
nationally and internationally
to understand and face the
Greenhouse Effect is
provided by Linda Fisher.
EPA Assistant Administrator
for Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation [OPPE).
Next is an article
explaining how the cutting of
forests in parts of the world
can contribute; to the
Greenhouse Effect and how
forest replanting globally
could help alleviate the
Greenhouse problem. The
piece is adapted from an
article by Sandra Postel of
the World Watch Institute.
In conclusion, an article by
Gus Speth. President of the
World Resources Institute in
Washington. D.G.. addresses
a thought-provoking
question—Gan the human
race be saved?
This issue of KPA Journal
concludes with two regular
features—Appointments and
Update. -
This corn in Baldwin County, Georgia, grew to normal height last summer, but due to the
drought it shriveled and formed very few ears. Scientists agree last summer's drought was not
from the Greenhouse Effect, but drought could be experienced in some areas in the future
because of the Greenhouse warming.
-------
United Stales
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of
Public Affairs (A-107)
Washington DC 20460
Volume 15
Number 1
January February 1989
&EPA JOURNAL
Lee M. Thomas, Administrator
Jennifer Joy Wilson, Assistant Administrator for External Affairs
R.A. Edwards, Acting Director. Office of Public Affairs
John Heritage, Editor
Karen Flagstad, Assistant Editor
Jack Lewis, Assistant Editor
Ruth Barker, Assistant Editor
EPA is charged by Congress In
protect the nation's land. air. and
water systems. Under a mandate 2
As this issue went to the; printer, it
was learned that President-elect
Bush will nominate William K.
Reilly to lie the new Administrator
til Kl'A. Ki-illy is now President ol
World Wildlife Fund and The
Conservation Foundation. Among
his previous jobs. Reilly was
executive director ol the Task
Force on Land Use and Urban
Growth and was on the senior stall
of (lie President's Council on
Environmental Quality.
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-------
How I See It
by Lee M. Thomas
Ctaig Autness photo Wooddn Camp
The way we live is profoundly
affected by our climate. When and
where we farm, how much we heat and
cool our homes, how we obtain our
water—all depend on the climate we
experience. Climate determines whether
we have a bumper crop or a shortage. It
affects the severity of our pollution
problems. H determines where the sea
meets the shore and the makeup of our
forests and our wetlands.
Mankind's activities are altering the
composition of the atmosphere to such
an extent that the climate of future
generations may be substantially
changed. These activities include the
use of electricity from fossil fuel-fired
power plants, the consumption of
gasoline from driving cars, the clearing
of forests, the growing of rice—in short,
a number of activities that are merely
taken for granted in modern societies.
Everyone contributes to greenhouse
gas concentrations, and everyone would
experience the effects of a global
warming. The activities leading to rising
concentrations of greenhouse gases
occur in every country in the world. In
some it may be the burning of wood for
heating and cooking. In others, it may be
automobile use. But both the source of
the problem and its impacts are global
in scope. No one country dominates in
the emission of greenhouse gases, and
any country that takes action to control
emissions will achieve only limited
success if other countries do not follow
suit. It is thus necessary that, if action
needs to be taken, it should be taken on
a global scale with the participation of
as many countries as possible for a
sustained period of tim«.
EPA JOURNAL
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While we know that much is at stake
if the climate changes, there is
uncertainty concerning the rate and
magnitude of climate change. This poses
a major dilemma since the longer we
wait before taking action, the larger the
amount of warming we will have to live
with. Already, we have seen an increase
in greenhouse gas concentrations which
means that some climate change may be
inevitable. Since there is a great deal of
year-to-year variation in climate from
purely natural causes, it will also be
difficult to detect the early signs of a
global warming. If we wait until we can
actually measure warming before we
take action, then we may have to live
with warming for many generations,
since it takes many years before
emission reductions could have an
impact on atmospheric concentrations
and the climate system.
In short, global climate change is an
issue with potentially profound
consequences for mankind and nature.
Limiting climate change would require
sustained concerted action by many
nations for a long period of time.
Given these facts, a number of actions
must urgently be undertaken. We must
continue to build our scientific research
capabilities and to develop an
international scientific consensus on the
nature of the climate change
problem—the kind of consensus that
can endure changes in governments and
incorporate a wide number of nations.
This international understanding of the
problem is necessary before effective
policy responses can be developed.
Yet, we do not have the luxury of
sitting on our hands while a scientific
consensus emerges. Rather, the United
States and other countries should begin
to think of ways to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, in the event that it
ultimately proves necessary to do so.
The source of these reductions would be
different for every country. For one, it
may be changing land-use patterns to
reduce tropical deforestation. For
another, it may be improving energy
efficiency. In many cases, actions that
may be found to be effective in reducing
greenhouse gas concentrations may
make sense on their own, for totally
independent reasons. For example,
reducing production of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) will slow
the depletion of the stratospheric ozone
layer and have the ancillary benefit of
potentially limiting global warming.
Finally, we must improve our
understanding of the effects of warming
in case we find that we need to adapt to
climate change. Since greenhouse gas
emissions have already increased, some
amount of adaptation may be necessary
even if we limited emissions today.
Moreover, if concerted action on an
international level is to be undertaken,
then a consensus must emerge on the
seriousness of the climate change
problem. Only through internationally
coordinated research on the impacts of
climate change can this be
accomplished.
Fortunately, several steps are already
underway. The major nations of the
world have already taken the
precedent-setting action of agreeing to
reduce CFCs under the Montreal Protocol
signed in September of 1987. This treaty
will have the positive benefit of slowing
the rate of global warming in addition to
protecting the ozone layer. The treaty is
by far the most significant international
environmental agreement ever reached,
and it came about as a result of a
concerted scientific and diplomatic
initiative by the U.S. government. As
this issue of the magazine went to press,
enough ratifications had been received
for the treaty to go into effect on January
1, 1989. Even further reductions are
being contemplated by many
governments.
In addition, the consensus-building
process on the greenhouse issue and
what to do about it has begun. In
November 1988, the United Nations
Environment Programme and the World
Meteorological Organization organized
the first meeting of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (1PCC). This was the first
meeting of countries from all over the
world to discuss global climate change.
It was agreed by all in attendance that
countries should work together to assess
the scientific information concerning
greenhouse warming, its potential
effects, and options for responding to it.
While much work needs to be done, the
IPCC provides a process for developing
the international consensus that must
precede taking action on an issue with
the potentially enormous consequences
of global climate change.
It is ironic that the very technologies
that have raised the standard of living of
millions of people over the last hundred
years, and which are so sought after by
all countries of the world, may also be
responsible for global warming in the
future. We must begin now to build the
international understanding of the
greenhouse gas issue, its likelihood, its
effects, and its sources, in order to
develop an appropriate policy response
to it. Only through international
cooperation can we ensure that the
world of the future will be as conducive
to prosperity as the world of the
present, a
(Thomas is Administrator of EPA.)
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
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A Character Sketch
of Greenhouse
by Dr. David Rind
The Greenhouse Effect has caught the
imagination of the general populace
in the last decade. What's more, the
respected, generally conservative
scientific establishment has become
associated with relatively dire
predictions of future climate changes
the Greenhouse Effect may cause.
But how much do we actually know
about the Greenhouse Effect? Can we
really establish how much the climate
will change, and when? Perhaps by
separating the "hard" science—that
which can be verified and is considered
well-understood—from scientific theory
or estimates, we can investigate the
likelihood of near-term climate changes
that have been projected. The series of
questions which follow will help us
explore what we currently know, or
think we know, about the Greenhouse
Effect.
Question: Do we really understand the
"Greenhouse Effect"?
The "Greenhouse Effect" is the name for
the physical process whereby energy
from the sun passes through the
atmosphere relatively freely, while heat
radiating from the earth is partially
blocked or absorbed by particular gases
in the atmosphere. Because the sun is
warmer than the earth, its energy is
radiated at a higher frequency which is
not absorbed well by gases such as
carbon dioxide (CO2) or water vapor. In
contrast, these triatomic gases (gases
with three atoms per molecule) are
effective absorbers of the
lower-frequency energy radiated by the
earth. Since the gases responsible for
this selective absorption make up only
about one percent of the atmosphere,
they are known as "trace" gases. In
general, we can calculate very
accurately the energy absorbed by
different gases, although there are some
uncertainties, and when the
concentration of a gas changes, we
know how much more energy is being
absorbed. This additional absorption by
itself warms the planet: for example,
doubling the concentration of C02 in
the atmosphere would eventually lead
to a global air temperature increase of
1.2° Centigrade (C)—about 2.2°
Fahrenheit (F)—if there were no other
changes in the climate system.
However, what we do not know is
exactly how the rest of the system will
react. The current numerical computer
models of the earth's climate predict
that the warming due to the increase in
CO2 will lead to more evaporation of
water vapor from the ocean. Water
vapor itself is a "greenhouse" gas, so as
its concentration increases in the
atmosphere, the planet will warm even
further. With rising temperatures there
will be less snow and ice to reflect energy
from the sun back to space (snow and
ice are very good reflectors). This
promotes further warming because more
of the sun's heat is retained in the earth.
These are examples of "positive
feedbacks" in which the system
responds to a warming climate with
changes which amplify the warming
even further. Both of these system
responses are very likely to occur,
although we cannot be sure of the
magnitude of the changes. The models
also predict cloud cover changes that
will provide even more warming, but
clouds are not modeled in a very
sophisticated way because they are not
well understood. Thus, the likely
impact of cloud cover changes is quite
uncertain.
The net result of these different
processes in the various models is the
tripling of the warming caused by the
doubled CO2 levels alone, producing a
total warming of about 4° C (or 7° F) for
the global, annual average. Yet it is only
the initial Greenhouse Effect due to
increased CO2 or increases in other trace
gases, which we know with great
confidence.
Question: Can we use the temperatures
on other planets to determine what the
climate system feedback will be on
earth?
The atmospheres of nearby planets
validate the general concept of the
greenhouse theory, especially in a
qualitative sense, but they cannot tell us
what the magnitude of the changes on
earth will be. Venus, with its massive
atmosphere composed essentially of
CQ2, has a surface air temperature close
to 500° warmer than would be expected
without a Greenhouse Effect. Mars, with
a very thin atmosphere and thus little
atmospheric capacity to absorb
radiation, has an observed temperature
close to the expected. The earth, with
intermediate amounts of greenhouse
gases in its atmosphere, is about 30° C
(54° F) warmer than it would be
otherwise. The differences among the
planets are very large, and cannot really
be used to estimate sensitivity to
relatively small changes in greenhouse
gas levels. Furthermore, as noted above,
the big uncertainty lies in the
magnitude of the climate system
response (or feedbacks). The most
important feedbacks involve the
reaction or processes related to water,
and the other planets have no
free-standing water.
Are greenhouse gases increasing?
Since the establishment of an
atmospheric monitoring system in 1958,
we have observed the concentration of
CO2 growing systematically. During the
past 28 years, C02 values in our
atmosphere have increased from 315
parts per million (ppm) to 350 ppm.
These values are especially significant
since air bubbles trapped within the ice
in Greenland and Antarctica have been
used to measure what CO2
EPA JOURNAL
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Carbon dioxide and other gases absorb infrared
radiation in the troposphere and warm the earth.
concentrations were like over the past
several hundred thousand years. During
that time, up to just prior to the
industrial revolution. C0;> levels had not
exceeded 280 ppm (and thus were well
below current values). The rising CO;.
concentrations are believed to be
associated with the widespread use of
fossil fuels such as gas and oil and by
the denuding of the world's tropical and
other forests, a process which lowers
the earth's ability to use trees as a CO2
absorbent.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), better
known for their impact on atmospheric
ozone levels, are artificially generated
gases that also have the capacity to
contribute to the Greenhouse Effect, and
which are known to be increasing. They
have no natural sources and probably
did not exist in the atmosphere prior to
the last few decades. Recent
measurements indicate that other
contributing greenhouse gases, such as
methane and nitrous oxide, are also
increasing; however, since we are not
sure of the reason for their increase, we
have less confidence in their long-term
trends.
Question: Is the temperature record of
the past century consistent with the
increase of gases which contribute to
the Greenhouse Effect?
It is estimated that the average surface
air temperature has increased globally
by about 0.6" C (or I" F) in the past
century, but there is some uncertainty
as to how accurately the change can be
estimated because there were far fewer
temperature recording stations 100 years
ago. Large portions of the globe were
poorly sampled, especially in the
Southern Hemisphere. Even today, full
global coverage is not available;.
The record, such as it is, does not
indicate a continuous worldwide
-------
warming. There was apparently a
cooling period in the Northern
Hemisphere from the 1940s into the
early 1970s. This is inconsistent with
the concept of greenhouse warming,
but it may be due to other climate
disturbances such as variations in the
solar energy constant, or a change in the
amount of volcanic discharge into the
atmosphere, or it may simply represent
internal variability within the system.
The overall warming for the past
century is the right order of magnitude
for the expected Greenhouse Effect.
However, given the uncertainties about
the actual temperature change, the
climate feedback factor, the actual
amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in
1880, and the rate at which oceans
absorb heat (which slows down the
atmospheric warming), we cannot be
more precise in determining what the
expected warming would have been.
Similarly, we cannot use the record to
establish what the climate-feedback
factor really is.
Despite these qualifications, one
aspect of the temperature record clearly
stands out: during the past century, the
four warmest years, globally, were all
during the 1980s; this does not include
1988, which appears as if it will be the
warmest year of all. This has occurred
despite the eruption of the El Chicon
volcano, putting additional dust into the
air, and a decrease in the sun's energy
output, both of which should have had
a cooling effect. While modern
temperature records may be
contaminated to some extent by heat
island effects which create warm areas
in cities, the rapid rise of temperature
during the 1980s is consistent with
computer model projections. This
suggests that the anticipated Greenhouse
Effect changes may actually be
appearing at this time.
Question: Are current computer models
adequate to allow us to forecast climate
change?
Numerical models (called general
circulation models) which simulate the
known workings of the earth's climate
system are used to calculate its response
to increases in trace gases. The four
models in current use all estimate that
the doubled CO2 climate will have a
global average temperature some 4° C
(7° F) warmer than today. They are thus
all calculating similar climate feedback
factors. However, even though many
climate processes are handled similarly
in the different models, their unanimity
does not guarantee accuracy. For
example, the treatment of cloud cover in
all the models represents a major
uncertainty. The models also differ to
some extent as to the seasonal and
latitudinal distributions of the
calculated warming. It is thought
unlikely that the models could be wrong
by more than a factor of two, but this
cannot be proven.
In addition, a climate change forecast
should indicate when the warming
would be expected to be evident, but
only one model, the Goddard Institute
of Space Studies (GISS) model, has been
used to calculate the temperature
increase over the next 50 years in
response to a gradual change in
greenhouse gas concentrations. Its
results indicate substantial warming in
the next decade. This calculation is
affected to some extent by uncertainties
in how much heat the oceans will
absorb and the true climate feedback
factor. Nonetheless, by providing an
estimate of how much warming should
be observed in the relatively near future,
the model does give us a chance to test
the accuracy of its projections.
Question: How "dire" is the forecast of
coming climate change?
It is estimated that the ice age climate
was some 4° C colder than today's. At
that time (some 18,000 years ago), ice
covered the area now occupied by New
York City. Considering that the doubled
CO2 climate is estimated to be warmer
to the same degree that the ice ages
were cooler, large changes in the
climate system may well be expected if
this comes to pass. The GISS model's
forecast for the next 50 years gives
changes of 2° C (3.6" F) by the year 2020,
which would make the earth warmer
than it is thought to have been at any
point in historical time. Estimates for
summer temperatures in the doubled
C02 climate indicate that Washington,
DC, which currently experiences 36
days of temperature above 90° F would
routinely have 87 such days; Dallas
would go from 19 days with
temperatures above 100° F to 78 days.
Sea-level rise due to thermal
expansion of the oceans would cause
severe problems in many coastal cities,
and this effect would be exacerbated if
additional glacial melting occurred.
Rainfall patterns would likely be
substantially altered, posing the threat
of large-scale disruptions of agricultural
and economic productivity, and water
shortages in some areas.
We may start experiencing the effects
of a changing climate fairly soon. If we
define a "hot" summer as the warmest
one-third of the summers during the
period 1950-1980, then, if the models
are correct, during the 1990s we will
experience "hot" summers twice as
often, or two-thirds of the time. The
summer of 1988 may be an
all-too-tangible indication of how dire
such changes in summertime climate
can be.
EPA JOURNAL
-------
Manmade Contributions to the
Greenhouse Effect
Nitrous Oxide—6%
Question: Is there any way to prevent
these changes from occurring?
The climate is being altered by the
release of greenhouse gases due to fossil
fuel consumption and industrial
processes, and by deforestation. These
factors are inherent in our current
civilization, ll may be possible to limit
specific trace gas increases (such as the
CFCs) and slow down rates of increase
of CO2 through increased energy
conservation. Our ability to manipulate
the climate system deliberately, so as to
offset the warming by some other
process, is nonexistent. It is likely that
the additional greenhouse gases which
have been added to the atmosphere
during the past 50 years have already
built considerable warming into the
system, which we have not yet
experienced because of the slow
warming response of the ocean.
The climate of the next century will
very likely be substantially different
from that to which we have become
accustomed. Uncertainties in our
knowledge of the true climate
sensitivity prevent us from knowing
exactly how different it will be. The
consequences of the climate change that
is currently being estimated would be
enormous. With that in mind, it is
worthwhile for us to factor climatic
change into decision-making processes
related to our future, even though there
are many uncertainties that still exist in
our understanding of what may actually
happen, u
(Dr. Hind is an atmospheric scientist at
the Institute /or Space Studies, Goddard
Space Flight Center. National
Aeronautics and Space Administration,
and an adjunct associate professor at
Columbia University. He is a leading
researcher on aspects of the greenhouse
theory of atmospheric warming from
certain gases.j
Regional Contributions to the
Greenhouse Effect
India—4%
Brazil—4%
China—7°0
European
Economic
Community
USA—21% m USSR—14%
(The top chart represents the estimated increase in the Greenhouse
Effect due to manmade emissions of Greenhouse gases in the 1980s.
The chart is adapted from work by Dr. James Hansen and his associates
at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The bottom chart is based
on EPA estimates of each region's contribution to manmade emissions
of Greenhouse gases.)
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Projecting the Impacts of
Greenhouse Warming
by Richard D. Morgenstern
and Dennis Tirpak
The past several years have seen the
emergence of a new interest in the
issue of global climate change within
the scientific community. Until quite
recently,, a century-year old theory about
man's emission of carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere, the role of water vapor,
and global warming has remained
largely unexplored. With increasing
evidence on growth in greenhouse gas
emissions, and with the advent of
computer mode'^to simulate global
climate, the scientific community has
been examining in greater detail the
complex issues involved. As more and
more scientists studied the Greenhouse
Effect and became convinced that there
was indeed a potential for a significant
global warming, Congress requested a
report from the Environmental
Protection Agency that would:
...examine the health and
environmental effects of climate
change. This study should include,
but not be limited to, the potential
impacts on agriculture, forest,
wetlands, human health, rivers,
lakes and estuaries as well as other
ecosystems and societal impacts.
EPA's efforts to respond to this
request began with workshops
composed of atmospheric scientists and
specialists in such fields as ecology,
hydrology, forestry, and agriculture.
With the help of these scientists, EPA
began the process of responding to
Congress, selecting climate scenarios,
and identifying topics for impact
analyses.
The first step involved selecting
future climate "scenarios." We could
have used historical climate patterns, a
panel of experts, or other methods.
Consistent with the approach adopted
by the National Academy of Science
and other scientific experts, we chose to
use Global Circulation Models (GCMs).
These atmospheric models are complex
mathematical representations of the
ocean-atmospheric relationships that
determine our global and regional
climate. With hundreds or even
thousands of equations, variables like
evaporation, precipitation, cloud
coverage, wind direction, and
temperature are simulated. To get a
range of possible scenarios, we used
three different models, differing in their
detailed assumptions, to see how
atmospheric variables such as
precipitation and temperature could
change in the future.
But for all the sophistication of these
models, the scenarios they generate are
not consistent in regional detail and
therefore cannot be considered
predictions of future climate. We simply
Our analyses suggest that
climate change could ...
result in a world that is
significantly different from the
one that exists today.
do not know enough about all the
atmospheric and oceanic processes to
get a truly accurate scenario of how
climate will react on a local and
regional scale. GCMs also cannot predict
how climate variability will change, so
we don't know how the frequency of
extreme events will differ. If heat waves,
storms, droughts, or hurricanes occur
more or less often, the effects of climate
change could be worse or better than
expected.
The next step was to see how those
scenarios affected various systems (for
example, water management systems,
ecosystems, etc.), both natural and
manmade. To capture the possible
wide-ranging implications of climate
change for the United States, we
divided the impact analyses into
regional and national studies. Regional
studies were deemed important because
they provide insights into the sensitivity
of systems in different regions of the
country. With this in mind, we selected
the regions of California, the Great
Plains, the Great Lakes, and the
Southeast. Systems chosen for national
study were picked because they broadly
affect our quality of life. In particular,
the potential impacts of climate change
on water resources, agriculture, forests,
biodiversity, health, air pollution, and
electricity demand were analyzed, as
were the implications of accelerated
sea-level rise.
Like the GCMs, the methods for
studying impacts have limitations. We
have no experience with the rapid
warming of 1.5° to 4.5° C projected to
occur during the next century and
cannot simulate in a laboratory what
will happen over the entire North
American continent. We don't know if a
forest will be able to migrate, whether
fish will be able to find new habitats,
how agricultural pests will spread, or
how impacts will combine to create or
reduce stress. Nor can we know how
changing technology, new scientific
advances, urban growth, and changing
demographics will affect the world of
the next century. These changes and
many others may singularly or in
combination exacerbate or ameliorate
the impacts of global climate change on
society. With the large number of
unknowns, our analyses of the varieties
of impacts can at best provide an
indication of the direction of changes,
but not the magnitudes.
With these caveats in mind, what
follows in the next several articles are
summaries based on the current
scientific literature and our draft
Congressional report. Our analyses
suggest that climate change could
change the landscape of the globe and
result in a world that is significantly
different from the one that exists today.
The ultimate effects could be felt for
centuries, and most will be difficult to
reverse. We hope that our analysis
challenges other to examine this issue
and to amplify and improve our
understanding of the potential
implications. We view EPA's effort as
but a first step to improve the
information on climate that will be
needed by many decision-makers in the
future, a
(Morgenstern is Director of the Office of
Policy Analysis in EPA's Office of
Policy, Planning and Evaluation
(OPPBj. Tirpak is Director of the
Strategic Studies Branch in OPPE and
co-editor of the draft EPA Report to
Congress on the Potential Effects of
Global Warming on the United States.)
EPA JOURNAL
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How It Might Be:
Agriculture
by Cynthia Rosenzweig
Climate and agriculture tire
inextricably linked. Witness tin; Dust
Bowl years of the 1930s, when crop
yields declined by up to 50 percent.
And just last year, in 1988, drought in
the Midwest caused corn yields to drop
by almost 40 percent.
Now, with the advent of the
Greenhouse Effect, scientists are
projecting that temperatures will rise to
higher levels in the coming decades
than at any time in the last 100,000
years. In addition, certain regions are
predicted either to become substantially
drier, or to become wetter. Climate
changes such as these are likely to have
large impacts on U.S. agriculture.
The exact nature of the agricultural
consequences of climate change is
difficult to predict, however. Scientists
are uncertain about the rate and
magnitude of the changes in
temperature and precipitation. Also
there are many potentially mitigating
factors in agriculture, such as
substitution of better acclimated crop
varieties or species, that may counteract
the harshest climate effects.
Some agricultural scientists have
predicted a boom in agricultural crop
yields because of the beneficial effects
of increasing levels of carbon dioxide
(CO;,) on crop growth. In experimental
environments, elevated concentrations
of CO2 increase photosynthesis in crops,
resulting in increased size and often in
increased yield. Increased CO;, also
improves the efficiency of the water
regimes of crop plants in the same
settings.
Other scientists have studied the
impacts of the predicted climate change,
excluding the physiological effects. How
these two factors—climate change and
the direct effects of CO2 on crop
yields—will combine in the luture is a
critical research question.
In order to begin to foresee what
effects these two factors (and others)
may have on U.S. agriculture, EPA
sponsored studies in the following
areas: crop growth and yield, regional
and national agricultural economics.
demand for water for irrigation, water
quality, pest-plant interactions, direct
effects of CO:» on crop growth and yield.
impacts of extreme climatic events.
potential farm-level adjustments,
livestock diseases, and agricultural
policy. It is the most integrated and
comprehensive set of studies yet done
on the subject.
In sponsoring these studies, EPA was
primarily concerned with the future
adequacy of food supplies. Results from
studies using crop yield and economic:
models imply that projected declines in
crop yields do not threaten domestic,
food supplies. These results are for a
range of climate-change scenarios
predicted by atmospheric scientists. In
general, consumers may have to pay a
small to moderate amount more for their
food, while food producers either gain
or lose depending on the severity of the
climate change scenario, (liven the
potential for continued improvement in
agricultural technology and other
beneficial effects, the overall
agricultural outlook for climate change
is not catastrophic.
However, agriculture as currently
practiced in many regions may change.
In rural areas, agricultural activity may
decline in the South and may grow in
, v
4
Studies done for EPA suggest that wheat
and corn production may shift away from
the Great Plains, especially if severe climate
change occurs.
JANAURY/FEBRUARY
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the North. In northern states such as
Minnesota, where crops are currently
limited by cold temperatures, climate
change is predicted to create more
favorable conditions for agriculture:
namely, warmer and longer growing
seasons. This will tend to enhance
productivity in northern regions
relatively more than in the southern
parts of the country. At more southerly
latitudes, crops are grown closer to their
high temperature tolerances and may
experience excessively high
temperatures with Greenhouse
Effect-induced warming.
Farmers will not be the only ones in
rural areas to bear the brunt of climate
change. Equipment dealers, seed
suppliers, and rural credit managers,
among others, all participate in the ebb
and flow of rural economies. If climate
change is severe, people in these
businesses will also be vulnerable.
As agricultural regions shift
northward, extensions of crop pest
ranges are predicted as well. Thus grain
and specialty crop farmers may have to
deal with increased insect pest survival
in the winter, increases in pest species
with more than one generation per year,
and pest establishment earlier in the
growing season.
Livestock producers may also
experience changes in pest regimes.
Increased temperatures may cause a
northern shift in the distribution of
some existing livestock diseases and
may enable tropical diseases to extend
their ranges into the southern regions of
the United States. Cold stress on
livestock may be mitigated in the
winter, but heat stress is likely to
increase in summer, possibly decreasing
reproductive capabilities.
In the Great Lakes states, agricultural
production in the northern part of the
region could expand as production
declines elsewhere in the country. This
might mean an opportunity for growth
in related agricultural businesses, such
as transportation and marketing
networks. However, agricultural
expansion might also put pressure on
forests and other natural areas to be
converted to cropland. Wider
cultivation could increase erosion and
run-off and degrade surface- and
ground-water quality. However, the
presence of thin, glaciated soils in the
North could limit this expansion.
According to computer model studies,
farmers may see yield increases of 50 to
100 percent in Minnesota, while yields
may decline in the rest of the region by
up to 60 percent. If photosynthesis and
crop water use are improved, crop
yields may increase even more in the
North and in the rest of the region,
except in cases where climate change is
severe.
One study examined potential actions
by Illinois corn producers in the face of
climate change. Not surprisingly, the
degree of adjustment depends on how
much the climate changes. For example,
farmers could relatively easily plant
their crops earlier in the spring to avoid
Climate change could
exacerbate many of the
current trends in
environmental pollution and
resource use from
agriculture—and could initiate
new ones.
low soil moisture in the summer, switch
to long-season corn varieties for longer
growing seasons, and use lower planting
densities to better conserve soil
moisture.
However, if climate change occurs
according to the warmest and driest
scenario, corn production might no
longer be feasible in Illinois.
Consequently, farmers there would be
likely to switch to a better-adapted crop
such as grain sorghum.
In the southeastern states, soybeans
and corn are the crops most widely
cultivated. In recent years, summer
droughts and heat waves have caused
failures of these crops in many parts of
the region. On the other hand, several
recent freezes in the winter have
destroyed a significant portion of the
citrus harvest. Thus, predicted warmer
temperatures caused by the Greenhouse
Effect are likely to be detrimental to
grain crop production in the area, while
favoring citrus production and
expansion of other tropical crops,
particularly in Florida.
The Great Plains is one of the most
marginal agricultural regions in the
United States. Some observers feel that
the southern Plains are so sensitive to
climatic swings that intensive dryland
farming should be abandoned. Yet in a
wet year, the Plains produce bumper
crops of small grains that add
significantly to the nation's export trade
balance.
Studies done for the EPA Report to
Congress imply that wheat and corn
production may indeed shift away from
the Great Plains, especially if severe
climate change occurs. Yields of these
crops may decrease significantly, and
the agricultural economy may no longer
be able to sustain the rural population.
For many communities in the region,
this may further weaken an economic
base already under pressure from
long-term structural changes in U.S.
agriculture.
As cropland area decreases in the
southern latitudes of the country,
demand for irrigation is likely to grow
on the remaining acreage, because of
improved reliability of irrigated yields
and higher crop prices. This could
increase the ground-water overdrafts
already occurring in the dry regions,
such as the area fed by the Ogallala
Aquifer in Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma,
and the High Plains of Texas.
It is important to note that the
regional shifts in agriculture described
above are potentially harmful to the
environment. Expanded irrigation and
shifts in regional production patterns
could result in competition for water
resources, increased potential for
ground- and surface-water pollution,
loss of wildlife habitat, and increased
soil erosion. A northward migration of
agriculture would increase the use of
irrigation and fertilizers on sandy soils,
thus endangering ground-water quality.
Farmers may rely on chemical
pesticides to deal with changes in both
crop and livestock pests. The above
examples show that climate change
could exacerbate many of the current
trends in environmental pollution and
resource use from agriculture—and
could initiate new ones.
In conclusion, EPA's studies found
that climate change could cause
significant shifts in regional agriculture,
even with the beneficial effects of
increasing C02. Agricultural researchers
and policymakers should begin now to
build awareness of these potential
changes into their programs, in order to
minimize any adverse impacts and
facilitate adjustments to those shifts.
Finally, it should not be forgotten that
the impact of climate change will
reverberate throughout the global food
economy, potentially altering the
international food trade and the location
of food-deficit regions. Changes in U.S.
agriculture will thus take place in a
global context, o
(Rosenziveig is an agronomist in the
Department of Geography a! Columbia
University. She is currently based a!
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space
Studies.)
10
hKA JUUKNAL
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How It Might Be:
Forests
by Jack K. Winjum
and Ronald P. Neilson
Maple sugaring in New England: under climate
change scenarios, the sugar maple area would shift
northward, with die-back along its southern
If average annual temperatures in tin:
United States increase, as predicted,
from 2.7" to 8.1" F (1.5" to 4.5" C)
during the next half century, forest
effects resulting from such climatic
changes could be apparent within the
next 30 to 80 years. For example, the
ranges of tree species in eastern \ortli
America are likely to shift northward,
with dieback along their southern
boundaries. During this period, and
subsequent decades of adjustment, the
health and productivity of many U.S.
forest areas may be reduced.
Although many factors influence the
condition of forests, climate is the
dominant one. Mean annual
temperature and rainfall strongly
influence the distribution and
composition of all biological systems of
the world, and forests are no exception.
Other important influences are sunlight.
soil nutrients, atmospheric chemistry,
and natural disturbances. Changes in
atmospheric chemistry and natural
disturbances are part of the scenario
projected for the Greenhouse Effect.
Oddly, carbon dioxide (COL,) and
certain other atmospheric chemicals at
elevated, human-caused concentrations
are not only associated with the
Greenhouse Effect, but also have direct
effects on plants, including forest trees.
For example, CO2 at higher than present
natural concentrations (all else
remaining the same) is known to
enhance photosynthesis, while elevated
levels of other chemicals resulting from
air pollution, such as ozone (O:j). are
detrimental. The effects of such
atmospheric chemicals in combination
with climatic change are complex and
not fully understood at present.
Forests experience natural
disturbances almost continually.
Examples are insect infestations and
disease outbreaks, plant competition.
wildfire, drought, cold extremes, and
windstorms. These produce stresses on
forests, and in general, forests stressed
by one factor (e.g., weather extremes
resulting from accelerated climatic
change) are more susceptible to natural
disturbances (i.e.. secondary stresses).
Thus more wildfires and insect damage
are likely if the nation's forests are
stressed by rapid climatic change. This
is consistent with the concept of
multiple stresses causing reduced forest
health, which is becoming more widely
recognized by forest scientists.
ision photo
From studies of fossils, pollen in peat
bogs, and tree rings, among oilier things,
it is clear to scientists that vegetation
has been constantly adjusting to climate
change over past centuries and
millennia. For example, in response to
the most recent glacial advance (ending
about 10,000 years ago), treeless tundra
JANAURY'FEBRUARY
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existed in the Great Lakes states, while
"northerly" species of spruce shifted
south into Georgia and east Texas.
Subsequently, during a warming period
(6,000 to 9,000 years ago), which
averaged 1.5° C (2.7° F) above present
temperatures, many plants in North
America were found one to two
hundred miles north of today's
distributions.
Forests occupy 33 percent of U.S.
land area and exist in some areas of all
50 states. In total, they occupy
approximately 737 million acres, which
constitute 10 percent of the world's
forest lands. Eight major forest regions
of the conterminous 48 slates contain 84
percent of the forested ecosystems of the
United States; the forested areas of
Alaska and Hawaii represent the
remaining 16 percent. U.S. forests are
rich in essential resources such as
wood, water, and wildlife, and offer
many opportunities for outdoor
recreation.
Most people in the United States live
and work close to or within a forested
region. A widespread rural population
is dispersed throughout the nation's
forest regions, but even many urban
centers have a forest backdrop. For
instance, the Boston-Washington
corridor is located within the eastern
hardwood region of maple/beech/birch
forests. Atlanta and other Southeast
population centers are interspersed
among the southern forests of loblolly,
shortleaf, and slash pine. Chicago and
nearby Great Lakes communities are
surrounded by the mixed
conifer-hardwood forests of that region,
and the Los Angeles to San Francisco
populations parallel the forests of the
Sierra Nevadas to the east. Forests, in
short, are part of the living environment
of U.S. citizens, and clearly the
continued health and productivity of
the nation's forests are of critical
importance.
In 1987, EPA commissioned five new
studies to enhance the present
understanding of the effects of global
warming on U.S. forests. These studies
used several methods to estimate how
forests would respond to the warmer
Time is short considering the
magnitude of forest change
possible under predicted
global warming.
conditions predicted by global climate
models for the next century as a result
of the Greenhouse Effect. In two studies,
fossil records of the pollen of plant
species (including trees) deposited
during past geologic periods found to
have climatic conditions similar to
greenhouse conditions were used to
estimate forest composition in the
future. In two other studies, existing
models that simulate forest tree growth
and productivity over time were used to
predict forest conditions under future
climate scenarios. A fifth study
correlated present temperature and
precipitation patterns with existing tree
distributions. Then, looking at predicted
temperatures and precipitation (and
assuming the correlations would
continue to hold), estimates were made
on how the tree distributions would
look in the future.
Results from the five studies vary
because different assumptions were
used in different studies. In addition,
there were a number of uncertainties in
all of these studies. For instance, the
global climate models may not give
precise climate predictions. The rates of
predicted climatic change are more
rapid than in recent geological history.
The influence of all factors influencing
forest health cannot be incorporated in
estimates (e.g., natural disturbances
resulting from weather extremes
accompanying rapid climatic change).
And possible rates of species migrations
to adjust to new climates were coarsely
estimated. Collectively, however, the
studies have strength in that they
suggest roughly the same kinds of forest
effects under the climatic scenarios
developed, based on a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 over pre-industrial
levels.
Several important conclusions from
the studies serve to advance knowledge
and justify concern regarding the future
of U.S. forests. All the studies suggest a
northward expansion of most eastern
tree species. Potentially, the range of
spruce, northern pine, and northern
hardwood species could shift northward
by about 350 to 450 miles into the
Hudson Bay region of the Canadian
boreal forest. Actual northern migration
may be limited to about 60 miles over
the next 100 years. Eventually, however,
New England coniferous forests could
be replaced by more hardwood forests
and especially by the oak species from
the eastern mid-United States.
12
EPA JOURNAL
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Additionally, southern pine species
could shift into the present hardwood
forest lands of eastern Pennsylvania and
New Jersey.
Ultimately, forest decline and
mortality could reduce southern
distributions of many northern
hardwood tree species by as much as
600 miles latitudinally, or by less than
100 miles for southern pines and
hardwoods. Under the driest scenario,
projections for the Great Lakes region
and New England are that species like
eastern hemlock and sugar maple could
disappear. Mature natural forests in the
region could be reduced from one
quarter to one half their present
volumes per land unit, with many poor
sites for tree growth also giving way to
grassland or scrub conditions.
Projections for the West are mixed.
Because of the mountainous conditions,
upslope shifts are possible for Douglas
fir, ponderosa, and western hemlock in
the northern Rocky Mountains. In the
coastal mountains of California and
Oregon, Douglas fir could be replaced
by western pine species in the
lowlands. Overall, the western forest
lands are predicted to favor more
drought-tolerant pines, at the expense of
fir, hemlock, larch, and spruce species.
Overall, these estimated forest effects
have many implications for the nation.
Consider the potential ecological and
socioeconomic impacts.
Ecologically, in addition to trees,
there are other important components of
forests to consider, such as other plants,
animals, soils, water, and atmosphere.
All of these components are affected by
interacting processes. For example, for
animals such as rodents, birds, or large
mammals, a change in the size and
relative homogeneity of forests could
mean changes in their regions of habitat.
In cases where receding forests leave
wide stretches of unfavorable habitat,
migrations could be hindered and some
species may be lost.
Soil development is many times
slower than plant migrations, and
favorable nutrient conditions for trees in
more northerly locations could be
delayed by centuries. Warmer climates
leading to drier conditions may bring
droughts that reduce timber and water
yields from present forest areas.
These prospects raise socioeconomic
issues. As forests shift to new areas and
In the coastal mountains of
California and Oregon,
Douglas fir could be replaced
by western pine species in the
lowlands.
existing forests lose vigor, there will
probably be disruptions and/or
reductions in the availability of major
forest resources—wood, water, wildlife,
recreation opportunities—and in many
cases forest aesthetics as well. It is not
hard to imagine very significant
economic impacts of such developments
in terrns of unemployment, community
instability, industrial dislocation, and
international trade impacts. These
far-reaching impacts would call for a
comprehensive review of U.S. forest
policy. Fundamental questions that will
surely need review involve the amount
of U.S. lands that should be maintained
in forests, how they are managed, by
whom, and for what priority uses.
A growing consensus among scientists
is that global warming from the
Greenhouse Effect is almost inevitable.
The timing and magnitude are
somewhat uncertain, but stopping or
turning back in less than a century or
two is likely not possible now. Forestry
research could lessen the impact by
developing methods, first, to detect the
extent and magnitude of forest response,
and second, to offset some of the
adverse effects through forest
technology.
Time is short considering the
magnitude of forest change possible
under predicted global warming. It is
urgent, therefore, to begin the research
as well as the national planning and
policy review very soon, d
(Dr. Win/urn is Sen/or Forest Ecologtst
on the acid rain research (earn at EPA's
Environmental Research Laboratory a(
CorvaJlis, Oregon. Dr. N'eilson is
Technical Director of the project at the
same laboratory, studying the ecological
effects of global climate change, and is
an assistant professor of environmental
science at Oregon State University in
Corvallis.)
JANAURY/FEBRUARY
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How It Might Be:
Sea Levels
by James G. Titus
Construction in many coastal cities, like
Miami Beach, is already very close to the
ocean. If the sea level rises, building
foundations couid be greatly weakened by
wave action.
In the last five years, coastal
communities have begun to prepare for
the possibility of a rise in sea level dun
to the Greenhouse Effect. In the United
States, Maim; has enacted a policy
declaring tliiit shurefront buildings will
have to be moved as sea level rises to
enable beaches and wetlands to migrate
inland. Maryland has shifted its
shore-protection strategy from a
technology that cannot accommodate
sea-level rise to one; that can. Seven
coastal states have held large public
meetings on how to prepare? for a rising
sea. Australia ami the Netherlands are
beginning to undergo a similar process.
The president of the Republic of
Maldives lias told the U.N. General
Assembly that the global warming could
completelv inundate his island nation.
A global warming could raise
worldwide sea level by melting
mountain glaciers and causing the ice
sheets of Greenland and Antarctica to
melt or slide into the oceans. It is
generally recogm/ed that a complete
disintegration of West Antarctica, which
would raise sea level 20 feet, would
take 200 to 500 years. However, the
other factors could make significant
contributions in the next 50 to 100
years.
Efforts eif Rising Se:a Level
A rise: in sea level would inundate
wetlands and lowlands, accelerate
coastal erosion, exacerbate coastal
Hooding, threaten coastal structures,
raise water tables, and increase the
salinity of rivers, bays, and aquifers.
Goastal wetlands are generally found
between the highest tide ol the year and
mean sea level. Wetlands have been
able to keep pace with the past rate of
sea-level rise, because they collect
sediment and produce peat upon which
they can build. Thus, the area of
wetlands today is generally far greater
than the area that would be available for
new wetlands if sea level rises a few
feet. The potential loss would be the
greatest in Louisiana, which is already
In the last five years, coastal
communities have begun to
prepare for the possibility of a
rise in sea level due to the
Greenhouse Effect.
losing 50 square miles of wetlands per
year to the Gulf of Mexico. Moreover, in
many areas people have built bulkheads
just above the marsh; as sea level rises.
the wetlands will be squeezed between
the estuary and the bulkhead.
EPA estimates that if today's densely
developed areas are protected, the
United States could lose 30 to 70
percent of its coastal wetland with a
one-meter rise in sea level and 33 to HO
percent with a two-meter rise. Ninety
percent of those losses would occur in
the Southeast. Moreover, if undeveloped
areas become developed and if those
areas are protected as well, the losses
could be increased to 50 to 80 and (Hi to
90 percent. Even a 50 can. rise in sea
level could drown about one third of
our coastal wetlands.
The dry land within the two meters ol
high tide includes forests, farms, low
parts of some port cities, the bay sides
of barrier islands, and cities that sank
after they were built and are now
protected with levees. The low forests
and farms are generally in the
mid-Atlantic and Southeast, and would
provide potential areas for new wetland
formation. Major port cities with low
areas include Boston, New York,
Charleston, Miami, and New Orleans;
the latter is generally 8 feet below sea
level. A one-meter rise in sea level
would inundate 7,000 to 8,000 square
miles of dry land, an area the si/.e of
Massachusetts. Most of these losses
would also be concentrated in the
Southeast, particularly Louisiana and
Florida,
Among the lands most vulnerable to
inundation are the 100 to 150 square
miles of recreational barrier islands of
the Atlantic and Gulf Goasts. Goastal
barriers are generally long narrow
islands and spits (peninsulas) with the
ocean on one side and the bay on the
other. Typically, the ocean-front block
of an island ranges from 5 to 10 feet
above high tide, while the bay side is
two to three feet above high water.
Thus, even a one-meteor rise in sea level
would threaten much of this valuable
land with inundation. With a 50 by 100
foot lot often selling for $50,000 or more
even without a waterfront view, the
land alone can be worth about $250
million per square mile.
Erosion, moreover, threatens the high
part of these islands, and is generally
viewed as a more immediate problem
than the inundation of the bay sides. A
rise in sea level can cause an ocean
beach to retreat by considerably more
than the retreat due to inundation alone.
The shape of a beach profile is
determined by the pattern of waves
striking the shore; generally, the visible;
part of the beach is much steeper than
the underwater portion which
comprises most of the active "surf
zone." Goustal geologists estimate that a
one-foot rise in sea level would
14
EPA JOURNAL
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Stephen P Leathetman photo
generally erode beaches 50 to 100 feet
from the Northeast to Maryland, 200
feet in the Carolinas, 100 to 1000 feet
along the Florida coast, 200 to 400 feet
in California, and several miles in
Louisiana. Because most U.S.
recreational beaches are less than 100
feet wide at high tide, even a one-foot
rise in sea level would create problems.
Flooding would also increase along
the coast if sea level rises. A higher sea
level provides a higher base for storm
surges to build upon; a one-meter rise in
sea level would generally enable a
15-year storm to flood many areas that
today are only flooded by a 100-year
storm. Moreover, erosion would leave;
ocean-front properties more vulnerable
to storm waves. Higher water levels
would increase flooding due to
rainstorms by reducing coastal drainage.
Flooding from rainfall and storm surges
would be further exacerbated if global
warming increases the frequency and
severity of hurricanes; because these
tropical storms require u water
temperature of 79" F to form, many
meteorologists believe that such an
increase is likely.
A less obvious impact of .sea-level rise
would be the inland penetration of
saltwater into rivers, bays, wetlands and
aquifers, which would be harmful to
some aquatic plants and animals, and
would also threaten human uses of
water. Increased salinity has already
been cited as a contributing factor to
reduced oyster harvests in Delaware and
Chesapeake Bays, and for converting
cypress swamps in Louisiana to open
lakes. Moreover, New York,
Philadelphia, and much of California's
Central Valley get their water from areas
that are just upstream of the point to
which saltwater currently penetrates
during droughts. Farmers in central
New Jersey as well as the city of
Camden rely on the;
Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer,
which could become salty if the sea level
rises. The South Florida Water
Management District already spends
millions of dollars per year to prevent
Miami's Biscayne aquifer from being
contaminated with seawutor. These
impacts could be compounded if global
warming increases the frequency of
droughts.
Adaptive Responses
The possible responses to inundation,
erosion, and flooding fail broadly into
three categories: erecting walls to hold
back tin; sea, allowing the sea to
advance; and adapting to it, and raising
the; land. For over five centurii's. (lie
Dutch and others have used dikes and
windmills to prevent inundation from
the North Sea. By contrast, many cities
have been rebuilt landward as structures
eroded. For example, the tenvn of
Dunwich, Kngland, has had to rebuild
its church seven times in the last seven
centuries. More recently, lill has been
used to counteract beach erosion and
raise the surfaces of rapidly subsiding
communities such as Calveston. Tex,is.
Venice uses a hybrid of all three;
responses, allowing the sea to advance
into the canals, while raising some low
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
15
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lands and erecting storm-protection
barriers.
EPA estimates that even with a
two-meter rise, low-lying coastal cities
could be protected with bulkheads,
levees, and pumping systems, at a cost
of $30 to 100 billion. Although these
estimates are probably conservative,
they are such a small fraction of the
value of the nation's coastal cities that
one can reasonably conclude that these
cities are clearly worth protecting and
hence will not be inundated.
Studies of the possible responses of
barrier island and moderately developed
mainland communities show less
agreement on the likely response, but
generally suggest that environmental
factors would be as important as
economics. Although levees and
seawalls would hold back the sea, they
would generally result in the loss of the
beach as well as waterfront views.
Recent EPA studies suggest that the
most reasonable approach for many
islands would be to hold back the sea
by extending the current practice of
pumping sand onto beaches to raising
entire islands in place. Nevertheless,
urbanized islands such as Galveston and
Absecon (Atlantic City) may find levees
more appropriate. Undeveloped and
lightly developed islands may be
allowed to erode and retreat naturally.
EPA estimates that the cost of raising
the nation's developed barrier islands in
place would be $50 to 100 billion for a
one-meter rise, and $135 to 215 billion
for a two-meter rise. On an annualized
basis, barrier island communities would
have to approximately double their
property taxes. Although property
owners are unlikely to welcome this
prospect, it would generally be
preferable to losing one's property.
Hence, it seems reasonable to conclude
that sea-level rise will not necessitate
the abandonment of the nation's coastal
barrier islands.
Although the impacts of sea-level rise
on the open coast could be important,
environmental policy-makers should
probably focus on sheltered waters.
Because the beach generally is a barrier
island's most important asset,
economics would tend to encourage
Among the lands most
vulnerable to inundation are
the 100 to 150 square miles of
recreational barrier islands of
the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.
these communities to preserve their
natural shorelines. By contrast, along
sheltered shorelines, economic
self-interest would encourage property
owners to erect bulkheads that would
prevent new wetland formation from
offsetting the loss of inundated
wetlands.
State and local governments are
beginning to seriously contemplate how
to plan an orderly retreat from the
shore. Maine's Dune Regulations
stipulate that houses along the shore are
presumed to be movable in the event
that sea level rises. For high-rises, the
regulations require that the builder
submit an abandonment plan for any
building that would block the migration
of wetlands or dunes resulting from a
rise in sea level up to three feet. Other
states, such as South Carolina, have
recently moved toward explicitly
discouraging the construction of
additional bulkheads. In the case of
Louisiana, it will be necessary to change
the ways by which we manage the flow
of water for navigation and flood
control.
A number of measures for
counteracting saltwater intrusion due to
sea-level rise have been employed to
address current salinity problems. The
Delaware River Basin Commission, for
example, protects Philadelphia's
freshwater intake on the river—as well
as New Jersey aquifers recharged "by the
river—from excessive salinity by storing
water in reservoirs during the wet
season and releasing it during droughts,
forcing the saltwater back toward the
sea. Other communities have protected
coastal aquifers by erecting underground
barriers and by maintaining freshwater
pressure through the use of
impoundments and injection wells.
Looking Ahead
A rise in sea level caused by the
Greenhouse Effect would have
significant economic impacts on the
coastal zone of the United States, but
the cost of protecting cities and
recreational beach resorts from a rising
sea would generally be affordable. The
environmental problems, however,
could be more serious. To maintain our
coastal wetlands, we will probably have
to gradually remove coastal structures
from much of our coastal lowlands.
Although this will probably not be
necessary for several decades, we need
to lay the groundwork today, while the
impacts are far enough in the future for
people to agree on objectively fair
solutions without being compromised
by the desire to avoid their share of the
eventual costs. Q
(Titus, EPA's Project Manager for
Sea-Level Rise, works in the Office of
Policy Analysis, part of the Office of
Policy, Planning, and Evaluation.)
16
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How It Might Be:
Electricity Demand
by Ken Under
If the world experiences significant
temperature increases due to the
Greenhouse Effect, both people and
nature will have to adapt. One way
people will need to adapt is in tin; way
they use energy.
For example, everyone uses energy in
ways that are affected directly by
weather conditions. Heating, cooking,
refrigeration, and water heating are
important uses of energy affected
directly by temperature, humidity, and
other weather conditions. One
consequence of higher temperatures
caused by global warming would be
lowered demand for energy used for
heating in the winter and increased
demand for energy used for cooling in
the summer. Under the Greenhouse
Effect, the changing seasonal patterns in
energy use—less energy needed in
winter and more consumed in
summer—and the overall impacts on
total energy demand could have
important implications for energy
planning and ultimately on the cost of
energy for individuals and businesses.
Impacts on Electricity Demand
While climate change could affect a
wide range of energy sources and uses.
the implications for the demand for
electricity are particularly significant.
This is because the primary
weather-sensitive energy uses—space
heating and cooling, water heating, and
refrigeration—make up a significant
portion of total electricity sales for
public utilities. These "end-uses" can
account for as much as one third of a
power company's total sales, and an
even higher percentage during daily and
seasonal peak-usage periods.
Also, because of the large investments
by utilities in long-lived.
capital-intensive power plants, the
Changes in electricity demand by 2055 due to the
Greenhouse Effect could increase the need for new power
plants in the United States by 14 to 23 percent.
'
Mike Bnsson pholo-
17
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One consequence of higher
temperatures . . . would be
lowered demand for energy
used for heating in the winter
and increased demand for
energy used for cooling in the
summer.
industry must focus on long-term
planning. In other words, utilities must
begin planning their investments now to
meet their power generation needs into
the next century.
To address these issues, EPA and ICF
Incorporated, an environmental and
energy consulting firm, have assessed
the potential impacts of the Greenhouse
Effect on the demand for electricity and
the consequences of these impacts for
utility planning. Based on this study,
preliminary regional and natural
estimates were developed for a period
from the present to the middle of the
next century (2055).
Certain key assumptions were
factored into the analysis, including
estimated temperature changes due to
the Greenhouse Effect that would occur
over this period. Temperature change
estimates for regions across the United
States were derived from computer
modeling experiments conducted by the
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(GISS). In these modeling experiments,
alternative emissions rates for
"greenhouse" gases and other
atmospheric conditions were assumed,
so that ranges of estimates were
produced.
The GISS estimates of average annual
temperature change increase over time,
and by the 2050s, the estimates of
cumulative temperature increases range
from 3.1° to 5.3° C (5.6° to 9.5° F).
Based on these temperature change
estimates, considered together with
relationships between temperatures and
electricity demand, and a utility
planning model, we were able to
estimate how the Greenhouse Effect
could impact future electricity demands,
utility requirements for fuel and power
plants to meet the demands, and the
costs of producing electricity.
Study Results
By the year 2055, the Greenhouse Effect
could measurably change regional
demands for electricity in the United
States.
A principal factor in utility-generating
capacity requirements is the peak
(highest hourly) demand the utility
must meet. For most utilities in the
United States, this occurs on a day
during summer hot spells. Peak
electricity demands are driven largely
by peak use of air conditioning. Because
the Greenhouse Effect is expected to
have a significant influence on air
conditioning and other summertime
uses of electricity, higher temperatures
in the future could lead to significant
increases in the capacity needed to
satisfy those uses.
In fact, in several states in the
Southwest, Southeast, and Southern
Plains regions, requirements for new
generating capacity could increase by 20
to 30 percent, as compared with a
scenario in which global warming does
not occur.
Capacity requirements would not
increase in all states, however. Because
of greater demands for heating than
cooling in colder regions, some utilities
experience peak demands in the winter.
In these cases, warmer winter
temperatures caused by the Greenhouse
Effect could reduce the amount of
generating capacity required. Such
reductions in new capacity
requirements induced by the
Greenhouse Effect are restricted to a few
states in the Northeast (Maine, New
Hampshire, and Vermont) and in the
Northwest (Washington, Oregon,
Montana, and Wyoming).
On a national basis, changes in
electricity demand by 2055 due to the
Greenhouse Effect could increase needs
for new power plants by 14 to 23
percent. Another way to look at this
result is that eight to 16 larae
(500-megawatt) power plants would
have to be built on average in each state
by 2055 to meet the additional
requirements induced by increasing
temperatures.
Implications for Utility Planning
The EPA-ICF study estimated that the
investment in new power plants
necessitated by the Greenhouse Effect
could total several hundred billion
dollars (not including any increase in
costs due to inflation) over the next 70
years. In addition, increased fuel and
operating and maintenance costs to
generate electricity with these plants
could reach several billion dollars per
year by 2055. Much of these costs
would undoubtedly be reflected in
higher electric bills for consumers.
It is, of course, difficult if not
impossible to predict the future. The
extent and rate of climate change that
will occur are very uncertain.
Nonetheless, the picture painted by the
study results is a very real possibility.
The findings suggest that a substantial
amount of our resources could be
devoted to planning for and adapting to
the Greenhouse Effect in this one sector
alone. There are a number of other ways
the Greenhouse Effect could impact
electric utilities (for example, reductions
in the availability of water in rivers
used to generate hydropower), and there
are many other sectors of the world
economy and environment that will feel
the effects of climate change.
Designing and implementing
strategies that will help to mitigate the
Greenhouse Effect and to adapt to
climate changes in the future that do
occur are the challenges facing
policy-makers and planners today, o
(Linder is a Vice President of ICF
Incorporated.)
18
EPA JOURNAL
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How It Might Be:
Water Resources
by Joel E. Smith
Water resources in many, parts of the country are likely to
be affected by climate change. Some reservoirs and dams
might not be able to handle the new water flows.
Last summer, widespread drought led
to restrictions in water use in many
parts ot the United States. Law rainfall
levels caused the Mississippi River to
drop to record lows, tying up barge
traffic for miles. The drought also
caused a major decline in crop
production. Was this just a once in a
lifetime event or a warning oi future
change?
Analysis of the '1988 drought is
complicated by a long-term issue now
emerging on the horizon; of global
climate changes that will raise
temperatures around the work! and
change rainfall patterns. This could
cause major changes in the reliability oi
freshwater supplies and the way we Li.se
water.
Congress asked EPA to study the
potential impacts of the Greenhouse
Effect on natural resources such as
freshwater. In responding to that
request, EPA examined, among other
things, how the availability and use ot
water may change in the United States,
with special focus on California, the
Great Lakes, the Southeast, and the
Great Plains. The results of this
study, released in December 19HH.
form the basis of the water-resources
analysis presented here.
Before proceeding, a short discussion
on what is known and not known about
the Greenhouse Effect and water
resources is in order. The supply of
water is influenced by a number of
factors, including rainfall and
temperature. We know that increased
atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide will eventually raise global
temperatures. We also know there will
be more global rainfall, but wo arc not
sure where and when it will tall. Some
areas could get more rainfall, others
less; some could see changes in when
rnintall occurs.
Global warming will likely change the
availability and use of fresh water in
most regions of the country. California
is a good example. The problem there is
that rainfall is limited ami lends to tall
where people do not live and when they
do not need it. Two-thirds of the
precipitation in California falls in the
northern mountains, while HO percent of
the water is used in central and
southern California. In addition, much
of the precipitation tails as snow in the
JANAURY FEBRUARY
-------
winter, while the greatest need for water
is in the summer.
To store the water and deliver it to
user in the south, the largest reservoir
and water distribution system in the
world was constructed. The system was
designed to capture run-off at a certain
time of the year, and it is that very
precision that makes the system
vulnerable to climate change. Warmer
temperatures will melt the snow in the
Sierras earlier. Flood control is
currently the major wintertime water
management problem in northern
California, and earlier Greenhouse
Effect-induced snowmelt could make
the problem worse. To protect areas
such as Sacramento from flooding,
reservoir levels will have to be kept
lower and more winter run-off released.
Letting more water go in the winter will
result in inadequate supplies for
consumption in the summer.
While supplies in California could
become less reliable, there may be a
need for even more water. The state's
farmers, who already use about 85
percent of the state's water supplies for
irrigation, may need more water. Higher
temperatures will increase electricity
demand, which may mean more power
plants and greater need for cooling
water. Sea-level rise could increase
salinity near the freshwater pumping
stations in the Sacramento-San joaquin
Delta, requiring the use of more fresh
water to repel saline waters.
Furthermore, with higher temperatures,
residential use of water for drinking and
watering lawns could increase. Faced
with a system that may not be able to
deliver adequate supplies, Californians
may have to choose between building
more storage capacity or using water
more efficiently.
In contrast to California, rainfall in
the Southeast is well distributed
geographically. In recent years the
problem in the Southeast has been
drought. In 1986 and 1988, low rainfall
reduced crop production. This year low
river flow restricted commerce on the
Mississippi and led Atlanta to restrict
residential water use.
We are not sure whether climate
change will raise or lower river flow
and lake levels, but a change in either
direction could have significant
implications for the Southeast. If river
flow and lake levels become higher, the
likelihood of flooding may rise. If levels
drop, the problem becomes one of
allocating scarce supplies.
As in California, the need for water
will rise in the Southeast. Many farmers
in the region may install irrigation in
order to increase crop yields. Also, the
increase in electricity demand may be
greatest in the Southeast, and that could
mean greater need for water both for
cooling and for hydroelectric power
production. The problem that may face
water managers in the Southeast,
especially if river flows and lake levels
Some areas could get more
rainfall, others less; some
could see changes in when
rainfall occurs.
decline, is deciding which uses of water
to protect. Should water be set aside for
irrigation or for municipal and
industrial use? Should hydropower be
favored? What about recreation and
protecting fish and wildlife?
In the Great Lakes, the concern in
recent years has been with changes in
lake levels. Three years ago, record high
levels caused millions of dollars of
damage to shoreline properties, while
lower levels this year reduced shipping
tonnage and hydroelectric power
production. The EPA studies indicate
that average lake levels may fall
one-half to as much as two and one-half
meters, dropping average levels beiow
the lowest levels on record.
Lower levels may create more
beaches, but could cause problems for
shipping and hydropower. Shipping
channels either would have to be
dredged or the cargo tonnage on ships
reduced. (Warmer temperatures,
however, will reduce ice cover, which
will allow shipping to continue almost
year round.) Lower lake levels will also
reduce hydropower production, which
currently supplies one-fourth of New
York State's electricity.
How people outside of the Great
Lakes region respond to climate change
could also affect the Lakes. During the
drought this summer, there were calls to
increase the diversion of water out of
the Great Lakes to raise flow in the
Mississippi. This could be an indication
of things to come. The report concludes
that the demand for irrigation will
increase in most regions of the country.
The demand for water for other uses,
such as power plant cooling, may also
rise across the country. With the
availability of water in areas such as the
West possibly becoming less reliable,
water users may look outside of their
regions for supplies. One possible
source may well be the Great Lakes,
which, despite lower levels, will still
constitute the largest source of surface
fresh water in the United States.
Climate change will not only affect
the supply of fresh water in many
regions, but also the quality. Where
river flow and lake levels are lower,
there would be less dilution of pollution
and water quality could decline.
Conversely, where they are higher, there
could be more dilution and an
improvement in water quality. We
found that in lakes such as Lake Erie,
higher temperatures would increase the
growth of aquatic species such as algae
and would change lake circulation
patterns. These changes would reduce
dissolved oxygen levels in other lakes as
well, thereby harming fish and other
creatures.
In general, water resources in many
parts of the country are likely to be
affected by climate change. The
availability of water—how much there
is and when it is available—will change
and the need for water will probably
increase. Many reservoir and dam
systems may not be able to handle the
change. These systems were built based
on historic flows and, as is the case in
California, a shift in availability could
impair the system's ability to provide
adequate supplies or flood protection.
Thus, some change in the structure of
many of these systems or in the use of
water may weJ) be necessary.
There are two basic ways to make
these changes. One is to wait until
climate change occurs before acting.
This could lead to expensive
engineering solutions and, perhaps,
bitter battles over the allocation of
water. Another approach is to take steps
now that might minimize future impacts
and also make sense for other reasons.
For example, reducing water use may
lessen the impacts of any future
reductions in supply. Such steps may
also reduce pollution and costs in the
near term. Furthermore, deciding on
water allocation schemes for droughts
before they occur may be much easier
than deciding when supplies are short.
Incorporating climate change in the
management and planning of our water
management systems may make it easier
for our children to meet future
challenges, Q
(Smith is a Policy Analyst in EPA's
Office of Policy Analysis and co-editor
of the draft EPA Report to Congress on
the Potential Effects of Global Warming
on the United States.)
20
EPA JOURNAL
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How It Might Be:
Species
by Sandra Henderson
Wide-range species such as the grizzly bear need vast
areas of relatively undisturbed land. If climate change
makes their current habitat unsuitable, alternative areas
might not be available.
Grizzly bears, elk, peregrine falcons,
California condors, rainbow trout,
monarch butterflies: the inventory of
species that provide beauty and
function in our ecosystems seems
endless. Yet scientists are warning of a
possible loss of 20 percent of the earth's
species before the end of the century—a
rate of species destruction greater than
any since the mass extinctions of the
dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
A majpr factor in this modern species
extinction may be our alteration of the
earth's climate: global warming due to
increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases. As a result of the
Greenhouse Effect, animal life is likely
to be affected by several processes:
shifting climatic zones, changes in
vegetation zones, rising sea level, and
increased frequency of natural
catastrophic events.
Plants and animals adapt to particular
geographic regions where the climatic
conditions favor their continued
survival and reproduction. Although
animals are generally much more
mobile than plants, they are still highly
dependent on plants for sources of food,
cover, and nesting or den sites. Even
predatory species are ultimately
dependent on plants to .support their
prey. Consider the fate of timber wolves
if the abundance of deer, rabbits, and
rodents changes dramatically.
Climate-induced shifts in vegetation
will significantly affect future animal
distribution and survival.
When climatic zones shift, adaptable
species can modify their range and
distribution to accommodate shifts in
vegetation. Many species have moved
hundreds of miles in these historic:
redistributions. However, those not able
to disperse easily, or those whose
"escape routes" were blocked by
mountains or oceans, suffered
reductions in numbers or became
extinct. Modern species must also
contend with man made barriers such as
roads, cities, and agricultural lands. The
rapid change in climate together with a
human-altered earth will make; it more
difficult for species, especially the slow
movers, to redistribute; their location
successfully. It is likely that species
currently threatened and endangered
will face the greatest risk of extinction
due to their already precarious
situation.
William S Keller photo Mir^i •
As we continue to alter the earth,
there are fewer suitable places for
species to use as refuge. Wide-range
species such as the grizzly bear need vast
areas of relatively undisturbed hind.
Yellowstone National Park and adjacent
public hinds are unique in the lower
United States in providing grizzly bear
habitat—a vast area protected by public
JANUARY FEBRUARY
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Migratory birds would be
affected by global warming.
Increased temperatures and
rainfall changes might dry up
prairie potholes, and rising sea
levels could inundate coastal
wetlands that are vital bird
habitats.
ownership. If climate change makes the
Yellowstone area unsuitable for
gri/./lies, alternative habitat may not be
available in the conterminous United
States, thus reducing this threatened
species' chances for survival in our
country.
With global warming, migratory
waterfowl that breed in the continental
interior are likely to experience negative
impacts. Over one-half of all waterfowl
production in North America occurs in
the prairie pothole region, a vast
agricultural area riddled with
permanent and seasonal wetlands.
Increased temperatures and changes in
seasonal rainfall are likely to reduce the
number of potholes in the area and
significantly affect the productivity of
breeding waterfowl.
Species associated with coastal
wetlands are likely to fare no better. A
rise in sea level is an almost certain
impact o) climatic change. Rising sea
level will drown many coastal wetlands.
directly impacting inhabitants of these
ecosystems such as fish, mollusks,
shellfish, waterfowl, and (hose species
that use wetlands as "nurseries." In
addition, upland species that depend on
wetlands as a source of food and nesting
areas will be forced elsewhere, probably
to Joss than ideal areas, for their basic
life requirements. Another impact of sea
level rise will be the intrusion of
saltwater in estuaries. Species that
cannot survive in higher saltwater
conditions will perish.
Rising sea level, in particular, will
further complicate the survival and
management needs of the threatened
vice Department o1 the Inteiior
and endangered species of the southeast
United States. The Florida panther, Key
deer, manatee, Mississippi sandhill
crane, and Everglades kite are all
species whose future may depend upon
the security of their remaining habitat.
Rapid climatic changes are also
predicted to bring an increase in
catastrophic events such as fires, insect
plagues, and floods in some parts of the
world and droughts in others.
Catastrophic: events have always had a
major impact on living organisms.
It is likely that species
currently threatened and
endangered will face the
greatest risk of extinction due
to their already precarious
situation.
Under the conditions of rapid climatic;
change, however, there will be little
time for recovery between such
catastrophes. Many species could be lost
forever as a result of such events.
The spotted owl is a rare species
dependent for its survival upon
old-growth Douglas-fir in the Pacific
Northwest. Currently, logging is tin;
major threat to this species and its
habitat, prompting the U.S. Forest
Service to set aside large areas of this
forest type. Under a warmer and drier
climate, increases in fires, catastrophic
windstorms, and shifts to a different
type of forest will threaten the
permanence of these preserves and
thwart attempts to manage this resource.
Climate change will not have the
same effect on all species. Some animals
will be able to adapt quite readily to
changes in temperature and
precipitation, and to shifts in climatic
zones. Many animals are "generalists":
English sparrows, deer, coyotes,
raccoons, opossums, and many rodents
have characteristics that allow them
to do well under a wide range of
conditions. They reproduce quickly, are
quite mobile, and can exploit a variety
of food sources and habitat types. The
presence of these species in urban areas
is an example of their adaptability.
Other species such as grizzly bears.
panthers, and bald eagles have much
more specialized habitat requirements.
Panthers, for example, need very large
areas of wilderness and do not do well
in close contact with humans. They are
unlikely to find suitable new areas to
exploit if their current ranges are
significantly altered by changing
climate.
Generalist species will likely fill the
gaps created by the species lost due to
climatic change. The aesthetic and
ecological characteristics of the natural
world after climatic change will likely
differ from the present. The form and
magnitude of these differences cannot
currently be predicted with confidence.
However, EPA is currently developing a
research program to improve predictive
capability and to identify possible
methods to minimi/.e adverse impacts of
climatic: change on wildlife, u
[Henderson is u biogeographer
at EPA's Environmental Reseun.li
Laboratory in CorvaJIis, Oregon.)
EPA JOURNAL
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How It Might Be:
Air Pollution
by Eugene C. Durman
Smog in Los Angeies, 1981. Temperature rises under the
Greenhouse Effect could present additional problems to
areas trying to meet the national clean air standards.
Global warming caused by the
Greenhouse Effect could aggravate
our nation's smog and acid rain
problems and make Clean Air Act ozone
standard attainment even more difficult
than it already is for many American
cities. This prospect is being raised as
environmental scientists begin to realize
that the projected time frames for
attaining prescribed safe levels of
ground-level ozone and reducing the
causes of acid rain may overlap with the
onset of global atmospheric warming.
The problem of ground-level
ozone—better known as urban smog—is
potentially linked to climate change
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
partly because of the way in which
ozone is formed. Ozone, unlike must
other air pollutants, is not emitted
directly into the air by factories or
automobiles. Instead, it is formed by the
interaction of volatile organic:
compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides
[NOx) in the presence of sunlight. The
severity of a smog problem in a given
locale is directly related to the
temperature and ultra-violet radiation
intensity in that area.
The "chemical soup" nature of the
ozone problem suggests the potential
links between two aspects of
human-caused global climate change:
depletion of the stratospheric ozone
layer, and the warming trend clue to
Jim Anderson photo. Woodtin Camp
increased emissions of greenhouse
gases. If the upper ozone layer is
thinned out by chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) and halons, more ultraviolet
radiation could reach the earth to speed
up the mixing of low-level chemicals in
the "chemical soup" that produces
ozone/smog. Smog chamber studies have
shown that a rise in temperature will be
matched by a rise in ozone formation;
this was confirmed by computer
modeling of ozone episodes in New
York.
Paradoxically, to the extent that
temperature rises lead to increased
cloud cover, the lessened sunlight
23
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As for acid rain, there are a
number of possible links
between this serious air
pollution problem and global
warming.
reaching the earth might actually slow
down ozone formation. However, most
of the indirect effects of rising
temperature would tend to increase the
amount of ozone. Increased amounts of
water vapor from global warming would
bring an ozone increase, as would more
frequent or longer episodes of air
stagnation. Higher temperatures would
also produce higher rates of VOC and
NOX emissions (for instance, gasoline, a
major source of VOC emissions,
becomes more volatile as the
temperature rises, and NOX emissions
from power plants could rise with
increasing demand for energy to run
air-conditioning units in a hotter
climate.) Computer simulations in
California suggested that a 4-percent
increase in temperature could produce
anywhere from a 2- to 20-percent
increase in ozone concentration.
From an economic and policy point of
view, these studies are potentially
significant because:
• Ozone levels in many areas are just
below the present national standard.
Any increase in ozone formation could
push them into violation. In the period
1983 to 1985, 68 metropolitan areas
exceeded the ozone air standards. A
10-percent rise in ozone levels could
double the number of nonattainment
areas and bring a number of mid-sized
and smaller cities in the South, East,
and Midwest into non-compliance.
• Many relatively inexpensive controls
for ozone are already in place in
nonattainment areas. If the ozone levels
rose, much more expensive controls
would be required. If, for example,
higher temperatures resulted in a
10-percent increase in emissions in
nonattainment areas, this could increase
control costs as much as $3 billion
annually.
• Any rise in temperature could present
additional problems for areas trying to
meet the national standard. Ozone
levels and ozone precursors are closely
related to economic expansion and
population growth. Consumer
solvents—paints, sprays, and even
deodorants—are a major source of ozone
precursors. These are difficult to control
and will undoubtedly increase over time
in all areas, including many already
attaining the standard. If auto emissions
also rise, any temperature rise will
exacerbate efforts to stay in compliance.
One possible saving grace is that,
because the full effect of global warming
will not be felt until well into the next
century, various national measures to
reduce ozone precursors, such as a
reduction in the volatility in gasoline or
changes in manufacturing processes or
transportation patterns, might provide
offsetting cushions in marginal areas.
But, unfortunately, economic
considerations and population growth
may make this unlikely.
As for acid rain, there are a number of
possible links between this serious air
pollution problem and global warming.
• Emissions from fossil fuel power
plants contribute to both acid rain and
global warming. If more electricity is
needed for air conditioners in northern
areas, emissions would go up, although
there could be offsetting regional shifts
in emissions growth.
• As climate change influences
atmospheric reaction rates and the
quantities and form of acid deposition,
areas of high deposit may shift or more
acid rain may fall away from the North
American continent. In any event,
strategies that seek to control power
plants in regions near sensitive areas
may or may not be as effective if there is
global climate change.
• Global climate changes may alter the
impact of acid rain on the ecology and
other systems. Changes in rainfall
amounts could dilute the effect of acid
rain on sensitive lakes. Cloud changes
could alter fertilization of high-elevation
forests. Changes in humidity and
rainfall patterns may change
degradation rates for organic materials.
Increased aridity in the mid-continent
could alter the calcium and magnesium
levels in dust, thereby neutralizing the
acid rain impact on soils. More frostless
days would reduce frost-related forest
damage, and snowpack changes and
rainfall patterns could change acid
levels in streams and the timing of
major spring run-offs.
With all of the foregoing in mind, air
pollution control agencies such as EPA
need to review the impact of global
climate change on their policies to
determine the interrelationships
between those policies and global
warming. Such impacts as the cost of
added controls resulting from climate
changes should be considered when
regulations are proposed or reevaluated.
Future regulatory decisions should take
into account their impact on energy use
and greenhouse gases, especially since
EPA regulations often serve as models
for other countries. Also, future reports
to Congress and major assessments of
ecological effects like the 1990 Acid
Deposition Assessment should include
sensitivity analyses of alternative
climates because these relationships
could have an important bearing on the
future of air pollution controls. D
(Durman is Chief, Air Economics
Branch, in EPA's Office of Policy,
Planning, and Evaluation.)
24
EPA JOURNAL
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From an
Industry View
by Stephen C. Peck and
Richard G. Richels
The possibility of climate change
presents a unique challenge to
American electric: utilities. If there is
indeed a significant warming of the
earth's climate due to rising
concentrations of greenhouse gases.
utilities may be affected at three distinct
levels. First, they will inevitably pluy an
important role in any broad societal
response to climate change and have an
opportunity to forge a new relationship
with their customers to achieve
common goals. Second, utilities
recognize that their industry will bo
among those whose operations are most
deeply affected by a changing climate.
perhaps within the time-frame of
current planning for construction of
new facilities. Finally, electric utilities
are concerned that costly and
potentially counterproductive
regulations may be promulgated before a
rational basis for policy-making is
achieved.
An overriding consideration in each
of these three areas is the number of
uncertainties that remain in the
scientific understanding of the
Baltimore Gas ant/ tiecinc Company photo
,
iw yj,
^WfV^^r-^
One of the issues in the debate about how to deal with the Greenhouse Effect is the
role nuclear power should play as an alternative to fossil fuel. Shown is the Baltimore
Gas and Electric Company's Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant on the Chesapeake Bay
in Maryland.
Greenhouse Effect and in tin; likely
effectiveness of various
countermeasures. In particular, the
apparent 0.6" C {!" Fl rise in average
global temperature over the last century
lies within the long-term range of
natural variability, although the recent
rate of increases seems rapid. Current
models suggest that a warming trend of
tliis magnitude could result solely troin
the increases in atmospheric CO... and
other greenhouse gases (e.g.. nitrous
oxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons.
and ozone). However, the observed rise
in temperature over the last century has
not been steady and has been marked by
unexplained periods of cooling. More
research is needed before the time-scale
of present climate change and the
contribution of human activity to this
change arc well understood,
Even more uncertain are future
trends. The earth has numerous.
complex feedback mechanisms that
could enhance or counteract the
Greenhouse Effect in still unpredictable
ways. Rising temperatures, for example.
could increase evaporation of surface
moisture, leading to a greater cloud
cover that could influence the wanning
by both reflecting more sunlight away
from the earth and trapping more
outgoing radiation. No one knows
which of the opposing feedbacks would
dominate.
Perspective on Regulation
In spite of these uncertainties,
legislation has been proposed that
would reduce U.S. CO:> emissions 20
percent from current levels by the yoar
2000 and 50 percent by 2015. Achieving
these goals—which many
knowledgeable observers doubt is
possible—woidd involve tremendous
costs for electric utility customers and
for the economy as a whole.
Unfortunately, it is impossible to say,
given the current state ol knowledge,
JANAURY FEBRUARY
-------
The reliability of electricity delivery systems could bt:
affected by weather changes caused by the Greenhouse
Effect.
whether such measures would
significantly affect any global wanning
that might occur.
At issue is whether we can afford to
wait for greater scientific certainty about
the Greenhouse Kffecl and its likely
impacts. The answer requires weighing
the possible costs of delay against those
of premature action, .such as the
imposition of tremendous costs on the
U.S. economy unnecessarily it the
warming trend turns out to be more
modest than some current projections.
Calculations by Irving Mint/.er at the
World Resources Institute indicate that
if no action is taken for 30 years to alter
current trends, we would probably have
to deal with an additional average
warming of between .25" to .8" C.
Clearly, a significantly higher degree of
certainty on a wide range of critical
scientific issues could be gainful in a far
shorter period of time. The first order of
business for the research community,
therefore, is to develop a better
understanding of both the consequences
and likelihood of an additional
commitment to global warming within
the range calculated by Vlint/.er. Such
an understanding would tell us what is
at stake by waiting.
Research is not only needed to tell us
when to act but also how to act.
Although the toe,us of recent debates has
been primarily on strategies to reduce
emissions, it is not at all clear that the
point of emissions is the best place for
intervention. There is, in fact, a wide
variety of options potentially available
for countering the Greenhouse Klfect.
The lour main options:
• Reducing greenhouse gas production:
Kxarnples are reducing energy use, fuel
switching from coal to natural gas,
increasing the use of nonfossil sources.
and reducing tin: rate ol deforestation.
• Removing greenhouse gases from
effluents or the atmosphere: Examples
are removing CO-, from power plant
emissions as well as starting forestation
programs.
• Making countervailing modifications
in climate ami weather: One example is
cloud seeding; another more speculative
example is changing the atmosphere's
reflectivity by releasing particles in the
stratosphere.
• Adapting to changing climate:
Examples are heating and cooling of
buildings, compensation of
disadvantaged regions, and changing of
agricultural practices.
Thus, another important research
direction is to conduct analyses of the
feasibility and cost-effectiveness of such
options so that an informed judgment
can be made on the appropriate
combination of options, when action is
required.
Regardless of when action may be
taken, however, it is clear that unilateral
emissions reductions by the United
States or its utilities would do verv little
There is, in fact, a wide
variety of options potentially
available for countering the
Greenhouse Effect.
to slow global trends. While worldwide
emissions of manmade CO- more than
tripled between 1950 and 1980. the U.S.
share of the total steadily decreased,
from about 42 percent to a current level
of about 22 percent. By contrast, the
portion attributable to developing
countries grew during the same period 7
percent to more than 20 percent, and
these countries may produce two-thirds
of CO2 emissions by the middle of the
next century.
American utilities, on the other hand.
now produce about 35 percent of U.S.
and 8 percent ot global emissions—an
amount which, even if it were reduced
significantly, would delay the date of a
doubling of atmospheric COv from
pre-industrial levels by a fraction of a
decade at most. Paradoxically,
premature restrictions on /American
utilities could actually increase CO2
emissions by driving up the domestic
price of electricity and forcing more
industries to move offshore, where the
efficiency of energy use is frequently
lower. Clearly, any regulatory attempts
to counteract global warming must be
international in character.
Effects on Utility Operations
Because of the large amounts of capital
and time required to build generation
and transmission facilities, electric:
utilities must plan for decades ahead.
Recent studies indicate that if
significant climate change occurs, some
effects may be felt within the current
planning horizon for utilities. The need
for more air conditioning during longer.
hotter summers, for example, would not
only raise the annual demand for
electric: energy but increase demand
peaks as well. Utility planners must
therefore consider both the likelihood of
having to build new power plants to
meet higher peak demand and the
probable need to purchase more fuel for
increased generation.
Planners will also need to consider
potential changes in energy supply
resulting from climate change. Stream
flows that affect the availability of
hydroelectric energy, for example,
depend on both the amount and timing
of precipitation, which could be altered
in some regions by even small changes
in the average global temperature. In
addition, the reliability of electricity
delivery systems could be affected by
shifts in the frequency and intensity of
weather extremes, such as tornadoes,
hurricanes, and severe storms. Power
plant operations in some coastal regions
could also be hampered by even a
moderate rise in the sea level resulting
from thermal expansion of the oceans
and possibly increased melting ot
glaciers and Antarctic ice.
To meet these challenges, utilities
will need to adopt more sophisticated
strategies of risk management. Although
many of the effects of climate; change
remain unpredictable, the cost of
adapting will be much less if some
prudent contingency plans are made
well in advance. Recogni/ing this need,
the utility industry is sponsoring a
program of research to provide a better
understanding of the linkages between
climate change and electric power
operations, and to develop strategies for
considering climate-related uncertainties
in capacity planning, long-term fuel
commitments, and transmission
investment.
Helping Society Respond to Climate
Change
Beyond facing immediate regulatory and
operational challenges, electric utilities
will play an important role in the broad
societal response to any climate change
that does occur. Several of these
initiatives, which are quite diverse:,
represent extensions of ongoing
26
EPA JOURNAL
-------
Richard G Richels
cooperative; efforts between utilities and
their customers and an; being taken to
use our natural resources more
effectively:
• Knergy conservation: Many utilities
have longstanding, customer-focused
conservation programs in place,
involving such actions as helping
finance home insulation or the purchase
of efficient electrical appliances. Such
efforts, on a global scale, probably
represent tin; most cost-effective means
of slowing the accumulation of
greenhouse; gases.
• Knd-use; efficiency: The; utility
industry, largely through the activities
of the Electric Power Research Institute
(KPRl), is co-sponsoring research on
increasing the efficiency of electricity
use in the residential, commercial, and
industrial sectors. Such efficiency
improvements are contributing to a
longstanding trend of electrification of
the world economy, which will also aid
adaptation to climate change.
• Electric vehicles: Electric vehicles,
charged overnight using off-peak power
from the most efficient baseload power
plants, could significantly reduce urban
pollution and—depending on the use of
nonfossil power plants—could
potentially reduce overall emissions of
greenhouse ga;;es as well..
• Generation technology: The efficiency
of existing plants is being improved,
one of the many benefits of the clean
coai program. In addition, new
technologies are being developed that.
over the long term, can help reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases from
More research is needed
before the time-scale of
present climate change and
the contribution of human
activity to this change are well
understood.
power plant operations. These include
more efficient ways of burning coal,
development of renewable sources such
as wind and solar energy, and design ol
smaller, advanced nuclear plants with
improved safety features.
• Technology transfer: Since; tin; major
contribution of greenhouse gases may
eventually come from developing
countries, utilities in industrialized
nations can play an important role in
making advanced technology more
widely available for both the generation
and use of electric; power. Such
technologies could help raise the
currently low efficiency of power
generation and hence reduce; CO;.
emissions in the Third U'orld.
• Planning for adaptability: As the-
effects of climate change become IIHIIV
apparent, utilities will need to work
closely with government agencies ami
the public to make plans for adapting.
These plans should include
multifaceted responses to population
shifts, economic dislocation, increased
irrigation needs in major agricultural
areas, and possibly the pumping of sea
water in extensive coastal dike systems.
U.S. electric Utilities represent a
relatively minor part e>f the problem of
global wanning, but potentially a major
part of the solution. They remain an
easy target for regulation, but national
resources would now be better spent on
contributing to the scientific basis for
policy-making and providing lulure
options to help the world manage
climate; change it it occurs. Siui:e both
utilities themselves and the
communities they serve1 will mevitublv
be; effected by climate; change;, now is
the time to forge; a new partnership lor
creatively addressing the' challenges that
lie; ahead. L:
(Peck is /director of the1
Environmental Hisk and lled/tii Science
Department tit the Electric Ponvr
Research Institute;. Hirlieis is
Manage;!- of the; Environmental Hisk
Analysis Program u( h'PHI.)
JANUARY FEBRUARY
27
-------
Three
Foreign
Perspectives
The United States is not the only
country that will have, to come to terms
with (he Greenhouse Effect. This global
phenomenon is concerning people the
world over. EPA Journal decided it
would be valuable to take a closer look
at what three other countries are doing
ri^ht now. The Netherlands, Canada,
and Japan—like the United
States—have advanced industrial
economies, but their own particular
circumstances can give them a different
view of the Greenhouse Effect.
The Netherlands
by Pier Vellinga
Netherlands Board ol Tourism photo
In the Netherlands, which is
particularly vulnerable to any rise in
sea level, there is a growing concern
about climatic change and its
consequences. The Dutch have 1,000
years' experience in fighting the sea and
reclaiming their land in the face of a
"natural" rise in sea level of about 0.15
meter every 100 years. By-comparison,
the latest projections of sea-level rise,
accelerated by global warming, range
from 0.5 meter up to 1.5 meters per 100
years. This yields a totally different
picture.
Nowadays about two-thirds ot the
country is protected from the sea by
dikes. In this area, which includes large
cities such as Amsterdam and
Rotterdam, about 10 million people live
below sea level. Preliminary
investigations indicate that the
Netherlands will be able to survive a
rising sea level in the relatively short
run. Technically and economically, it
will be feasible to protect the country
against a one-meter rise in sea level by
raising the dikes, strengthening the
coastal dunes, and adjusting the inland
water management system.
The estimated cost of such an
operation will be roughly 5 to 10 billion
U.S. dollars. When this amount is spent
over a period of 10 years, it will be less
than 1 percent of the Gross National
Income of the Netherlands. However, if
emissions of greenhouse gases continue,
the Netherlands will face a losing battle
in the long run. If all snow and ice on
earth were to melt, sea level would be
85 meters higher than today. In the long
run, continued greenhouse gas
emissions would cause the Dutch to flee
their own country.
Netherlands Boafd of Tourism photo
After a storm surge in 1953 that
killed 2,000 people, the
Netherlands began working on
more coastal protection. The
Deltaplan's major dikes have been
completed and a road built over
them. Local communities are paying
most of the maintenance costs.
EPA JOURNAL
-------
While the Netherlands may succeed,
at least in the short-term future, in
protecting the country against the rising
sea level, what about other countries
with much vaster unprotected coastal
areas? A protection strategy will be
virtually impossible for many
developing countries that do not have
the requisite experience, administrative
system, and economic means.
The only way to fight the greenhouse
gases is to limit their concentration by
reducing emissions. Presently the
Netherlands is investigating the
possibilities of a limitation strategy,
focussing on a reduction of energy
consumption, more ecologically sound
systems of land usage, and a total
phasing-out of chlorofluorocarbons. In
this way we will not only reduce the
emissions of greenhouse gases but also
help to solve a number of other
environmental problems.
International Initiatives
The Netherlands contributes about 1 or
2 percent of the global emissions of
greenhouse gases. This means that a
solo action on our part would be like
Don Quixote fighting his windmills.
Given this situation, the Government of
the Netherlands is stressing the need for
international action to augment national
measures. Two recent international
initiatives are:
• The Netherlands' minister responsible
for our coastal protection, Mrs. N.
Smit-Kroes, has initiated cooperation
between our government and the United
Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) to increase international
awareness of sea-level rise. This
cooperation covers a global inventory of
vulnerable areas, a framework to
describe the Impact of Sea-level rise On
Society (ISOS), and a number of
site-specific case studies. The aim is to
define the social, economic, and
environmental impact of sea-level rise
on a global scale. The investigations are
The manmade island at center
was the Deltaplan headquarters
during the major building
phase. In the foreground is a
museum that explains the 58
billion coastal defense system
being carried out by a worldwide
network of scientists and policymakers,
coordinated by Delft Hydraulics
Company. The results of the
investigations will be made available to
UNEP to serve as a basis for the
development of policy responses.
• The second international initiative has
come from our ministry with primary
responsibility for the environment. Mr.
Ed Nijpels, Minister of Housing,
Physical Planning, and Environment, has
taken the initiative to organize a
Ministerial Conference on Atmospheric
Pollution and Climatic Change, to be
held in the Netherlands in the fall of
1989. He intends to bring the discussion
of climatic change to a policy level,
with the aim of preparing policy options
for the protection of the atmosphere.
This conference will be organized in
close cooperation with UNEP and the
World Meteorological Organi/.ation to
ensure coordination with their activities
and to support world conferences on
this issue to be hold in 1990 and 1992.
It may be of interest to note that Lee
Thomas of EPA has pledged to support
the initiative of the Netherlands, and
EPA is assisting in the preparations.
Actions in the Netherlands Today
The first impact of the rising sea level
will be an increased risk of inundation.
The present coastal protection works an;
designed to resist a North Sea storm
surge that has a frequency of ou.unv.m.o
of 1 in 10,000 per year. Under such
storm conditions, the water of the North
Sea would surge against the coast of the
Netherlands up to a level of 5 meters
above mean sea level. With a rising sea
level, the level of the storm surges
would also rise. Moreover, the waves
reaching the shore would be higher and,
last but not least, the frequency, the
intensity, and the direction of storms
would be affected by climatic; change.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
29
-------
The community of Zaanse Schans
has houses and windmills that
have been built close to the water.
As a result, the safety of the population
would be uncertain. Climatic change
will bring surprises; therefore we are
investigating the range of surprises.
The first visible effect of sea-level rise
would be an increase in beach erosion.
The coastal defense system of the
Netherlands consists for the most part of
sandy beaches and dunes, which would
respond directly to a rising sea-level. So
far the effect of sea-level rise on sandy
beaches has been described as a
two-dimensional process: as the sea
level rises, the upper beach will be
eroded and the coastal profile will shift
in a landward direction. However, in
most cases the situation is much more
complicated because coastal dynamics
is a three-dimensional process. Along
the coast there are barrier islands,
shore-connected ridges, tidal basins,
river outlets, and inner and outer deltas.
These systems are continuously
changing, even in the present situation.
The long-term development of these
systems is closely related to the water
depth. A change of the mean sea level
will directly affect the entire coastal
system, and the actual changes in the
narrow visible rim of this system (which
we call the shoreline) are likely to be
completely different from the results of
the commonly applied two-dimensional
approach.
Our present-day coastal zone
management policies anticipate an
accelerated rise in sea level. In cases
where a coastal stretch is suffering from
beach erosion—beyond what is
considered acceptable from a safety or
land-use point of view—the erosion will
not be stopped anymore by the
construction of long-term rigid
structures like sea walls or groins.
Instead, more flexible solutions like
short-term beach nourishment (using
natural sand to "feed" the beach) are
applied.
The first major coastal structure that
will be built taking into account a
sea-level rise induced by greenhouse
gases is the storm surge barrier to be
constructed in the Rotterdam Waterway.
The structure will have to protect the
low-lying areas near Rotterdam against
the North Sea storm surges. The cost of
constructing the barrier will be almost
one billion U.S. dollars. This barrier
will be closed when the water level
exceeds a critical value. The present
inland protection is such that, to reduce
the risk of inundation, this new barrier
will have to be closed about once or
twice a year. The structure has been
designed so that it will still function
properly given a sea-level rise of 0.35
meter within the next 50 years.
Moreover, the structure can be adjusted
to deal with a greater sea-level rise.
Administration, Taxation, and Planning
Since the Netherlands has 1,000 years'
experience in land reclamation and
coastal protection, there is a
well-established system of
administration, taxation, and coastal
zone planning, with local governments
fully devoted to water management and
coastal protection. After the major storm
surge of 1953, with 2,000 people killed
and large areas inundated, a new coastal
protection plan, the Deltaplan, was
commenced. The coastal protection
works necessary to implement the
Deltaplan were begun in 1960 and will
be finished in 1995. The total cost of
this plan, paid by the central
government, will be about 8 billion U.S.
dollars. When the plan is finished, the
Netherlands Board of Tourism
local governments, and thus the local
communities, will have to pay for the
major part of the maintenance.
The responsibility for coastal defense
and protection measures will be
elaborated in a new act that is presently
in preparation. With a continuously
rising sea level, the coastal protection
works will need to be adjusted within a
few decades, and the maintenance will
probably be much more expensive than
originally anticipated. Under the new
coastal protection act, the local
communities will pay for the major part
of maintaining coastal protection works.
One reason for this is to create an
economic mechanism for planned
retreat if it ever becomes too expensive
to maintain certain areas against the
rising sea.
In Summary
The Netherlands is vulnerable to sea-
level rise. Knowing this, however,
actually makes us less vulnerable. We
want to raise our voice in the
international community, not just for
ourselves but for all people and
countries vulnerable to climatic change.
The real challenge to all of us is to
tackle the problem of climatic change at
the source, o
(Dr. VeJlinga is Coordinator o/fhe
National Climate Programme for (he
Netherlands Ministry of Housing,
Physical Planning, and Environment.)
30
EPA JOURNAL
-------
Canada
by Tom Agnew
A cursory look at global warming
scenarios might seem to suggest that
Canada, being a cold northern country,
would emerge as a net winner from the
Greenhouse Effect. Indeed, in many
respects Canada will benefit. However,
expected changes in global climate
involve more than a simple rise in
temperature. Global circulation models
indicate that temperature increases will
be accompanied by shifts in global wind
and rain .patterns. These changes could
have major detrimental effects on
Canadian agriculture and water
resources.
In southern Canada, for instance,
where most of the nation's fertile soils
and population are located, severe
droughts may well become more
frequent, while increased flooding may
occur in the north. And throughout the
country, natural vegetation and forest
stands are likely to become mismatched
with ambient climate, making them ripe
for stagnation and/or dieback.
Physical and Biological Impacts
Computer modeling studies of warming
due to the Greenhouse Effect suggest
that the future distribution of Canada's
water resources will be significantly
altered. If storm tracks and hence
rainfall patterns move northward, as
projected, water supplies in southern
Canada are expected to decline
significantly, due both to increased
evaporation caused by warmer
temperatures and to a possible decrease
in precipitation during the summer
months. Water levels in rivers, lakes,
and reservoirs would be reduced.
Studies concerning the future Great
Lakes water supply suggest that water
levels may be considerably lower, with
outflow through the St. Lawrence
Seaway possibly decreased as much as
21 percent. Shipping on the Great Lakes
would be adversely affected. Where
water supplies are already
contaminated, as in the Great Lakes,
lower water levels would concentrate
existing pollutants. Moreover, increased
dredging of toxic-laden sediments in
harbors and navigation channels would
pose environmental problems.
Decreased water supplies generally
mean increased competition for
available water resources. In the
populated regions of southern Canada,
heavy demands are already placed on
our water supply for industrial,
agricultural, and domestic needs. These
demands are likely to increase
substantially. In addition, lower water
levels would seriously affect the
generation of hydroelectric power. The
In southern Canada, where
most of the nation's fertile
soils and population are
located, severe droughts may
well become more frequent
shortfall would have to be made up
through increased use of nuclear or
thermal power generation, with its
attendant increases in acidifying sulfur
emissions.
Higher temperatures and longer
growing seasons could significantly
improve growing conditions for crops.
The limits of northern agriculture,
especially wheat production, are
expected to expand considerably into
areas such as the fertile river valleys of
the Peace and MacKenzie Rivers in the
Northwest Territories. However, in most
of the north, soils are unsuitable for
cultivation, and expansion of intensive
agriculture will be limited for that
reason.
Alterations in regional and seasonal
rainfall and evaporation are expected to
have major effects on agriculture,
particularly in the mid-latitudes, where
soils may become drier and severe
droughts more frequent. The
grain-producing areas in the southern
prairie provinces are especially
vulnerable. The increased severity and
frequency of drought, such as the ones
experienced during 1986-87 and
1987-88, will pose the largest threat to
Canadian agriculture.
Gradual changes in forest cover are
also expected as the climate warms. In
the Arctic, the tree line is expected to
move slowly northward at the rate of
approximately 100 kilometers per
degree Centigrade of warming. The
mixed temperate forests of the east are
expected to expand, replacing boreal
forests as far north as James Bay.
However, because of the slow process
of forest succession, many existing
stands of trees, including those now
being planted under the reforestation
program, will gradually be left outside
their optimum temperature range,
stunting their growth and inducing
major diebacks. This problem may
exacerbate the current dieback problems
associated with acid rain, ozone, and
other manmade pollutants.
Drier climates in southern Canada
could also reduce tree growth and
significantly increase the risk of forest
fires. Warmer winters may seriously
affect the stability of winter logging
roads.
Greenhouse warming is expected to
have a substantial and largely beneficial
effect on northern Canada. Higher
temperatures would greatly improve
shipping conditions in the far north by
reducing the amount of floating ice and
lengthening the short summer season.
Warmer temperatures would also be a
boon to'tourism and settlement.
Rainfall patterns are expected to shift
northward, bringing significantly
increased precipitation in some areas.
Despite warmer winters, snow depths
may be greater—bringing an increased
threat of extensive flooding with the
JANAURY/FE8RUARY
31
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spring run-off. Storms could be more
frequent and more severe.
There is also concern that slow but
widespread melting of the permafrost
will create an unstable foundation for
roads, buildings, pipelines, and other
structures. In addition, melting of the
permafrost is likely to release significant
amounts of the greenhouse gases
carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane to
the atmosphere. And while snow depths
may be greater, snow will cover less
area for shorter durations, resulting in
increased absorption of incoming solar
radiation. Considered together, these
two factors constitute a probable
"positive feedback" mechanism which
would reinforce the warming effect.
The anticipated warming would mean
less ice cover on navigable waters, and
this would substantially benefit
shipping and the offshore resource
industry in Arctic and coastal waters.
However, there is concern that icebergs
could increase as much as 300 percent,
posing a major threat to offshore
activities in the eastern Arctic and
Labrador.
In the Great Lakes, reduced winter ice
would extend the shipping season.
However, this advantage is expected to
be outweighed by the previously noted
problems associated with lower water
levels.
The Canadian Climate Program
Recognizing the potential impacts of
climatic fluctuations and climate change
on Canadian Society, Canada
established, over a decade ago, the
Canadian Climate Program (CCP) to
integrate the efforts of various federal
and provincial agencies as well as
universities and the private sector in the
field of climatology. The program is
steered by a Climate Program Board,
which provides guidance and
coordination on a wide spectrum of
international and national
climate-related activities. The lead
agency for this national program is the
Atmospheric Environment Service
(AES) of Environment Canada.
CCP climate impacts studies are being
carried out to assess the potential social
and economic repercussions of climate
warming expected under a scenario in
which atmospheric C02 levels are
In the Arctic, the tree line is
expected to move slowly
northward at the rate of
approximately 100 kilometers
per degree Centigrade of
warming.
doubled over pre-industrial levels.
Thirteen major studies have now been
completed, and others are in progress.
This work has identified specific areas
of sensitivity in agriculture, forestry,
navigation, power generation, fisheries,
recreation, and tourism.
One noteworthy study examined the
impact of climate change on agriculture
in Saskatchewan. This work was done
as part of a joint project with
IIASA/UNEP (International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis/United
Nations Environment Programme). The
study found that Saskatchewan could
expect occasional drought years like
that of 1961, with losses to the
agricultural economy exceeding $1.8
billion and 8,000 person years. A shift
to a warmer long-term climate would
cause reduced spring wheat yields with
losses of $160 million and 700 person
years.
As a possible premonition to the most
recent 1988 severe drought, the same
study also indicated that there would be
a major increase in the frequency and
severity of droughts. Warmer climates
would conceivably allow northward
expansion of prairie agriculture.
However, soils in this northern area are
suitable only for marginal crops such as
forage, and the potential economic
benefits of such expansion are
questionable.
Results of these studies are now being
disseminated to the Canadian public
through the Climate Change Digest, a
new publication series initiated in 1987.
Press releases announcing each issue
have attracted considerable media
attention.
The CCP also provides support for
impacts workshops such as the joint
U.S.-Canada Symposium on the Impacts
of Climate Change in the Great Lakes
Basin, held in Chicago in September
1988.
Canadian Research Activities
Numerous research projects are being
pursued at Canadian universities and
government agencies with resources
provided by funds from various federal
departments, from the Natural Sciences
and Engineering Research Council of
Canada (NSERC), which gives grants to
universities, and from the CCP for
research directed at improved climate
monitoring and prediction. Recently, a
climate research chair at McGill
University has been funded jointly by
the NSERC and the AES, and a chair
will also be funded at Dalhousie.
Some of the more notable research
activities are:
• Canada operates continuous air
sampling stations at Sable Island (Nova
Scotia), Cape St. James (British
Columbia), and Alert (Northwest
Territories) as part of the global
monitoring of background atmospheric
CC>2 concentrations being coordinated
by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO). Samples are also
collected at Mould Bay, Northwest
Territories, for analysis by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
32
EPA JOURNAL
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.
U S Coast Guard photo
Administration [NOAA] as part of its
program lor Geophysical Monitoring of
Climate Change. Tin: COv concentration
measurements obtained from the
analysis of the air samples are
quality-controlled and added to the
existing station data bases, with copies
forwarded to VVMO. These data bases
are used for trend analysis and studies
into regional and long-range .sources of
CO2.
• Central to Canadian research into
climate change is the ongoing
development of an atmospheric general
circulation model (GCM) at AES's
Canadian Climate Centre. By early 1989.
the first enhanced Greenhouse Effect
experiment with this model should be
complete.
• Scientists in Canada's Department of
Fisheries and Oceans (DFG) an; working
with Swedish scientists to study the
uptake of atmospheric COv in Arctic
waters and the uptake of freon gases in
the Labrador Sea. DFO is actively
involved in investigations of air-sea
climate interactions in cooperation with
various international programs.
• Research into past changes in the.
earth's climate is diverse and widely
distributed among universities and
government agencies across the country.
The National Museum of Sciences has
brought some of these study results
together in joint publications on climate
change in Canada since the last
glaciation.
International Activities
Canada has long been an active
participant in international activities
related to climate change, both through
its WMO and United Nations
Environment Programme memberships
and through major contributions to
international meetings. Perhaps
Canada's most notable role was hosting
and organizing the International
Conference on "The Changing
Atmosphere: Implications for Global
Security," held in Toronto June 27-30.
1988. This meeting attracted more than
340 participants from 4(> countries.
United Nations organizations, other
international bodies, and
non-government groups representing
diverse sectors of society.
The conference called on the United
Nations and its special agencies,
governments, industry, educational
institutions, non-government
organizations, and individuals to take
action to reduce the impending crisis
caused by pollution of the atmosphere.
It recommended an Action Plan for the
Protection of the Atmosphere, which
would be financed by a World
Atmosphere Fund generated in part by
taxes on fossil fuel consumption in
industrial countries. Specific
recommendations of the plan included:
• Ratifying of the Montreal Protocol on
substances that deplete the ozone layer.
Although the anticipated warming
would mean less ice cover on
navigable waters, there is concern
that the number of icebergs could
increase as a result of melting
polar ice caps. This could pose a
major threat to offshore activities
in the eastern Arctic and Labrador.
• Developing energy policies which
will reduce emissions of CO., and other
greenhouse gases.
« Collectively reducing CO.: emissions
by 20 percent of 1988 levels by 20115.
through energy-efficiency and
conservation measures and through use
of cleaner energy sources.
• Increasing research funding directed
to low-CO.: and non-COj emitting
energy options including advanced
biomass conversion technologies anil
revisiting the nuclear power option.
• Vigorously applying existing
technologies to reduce emissions ot
acidifying substances, of substances
which are precursors to tropospheric
ozone, and of other non-CC).. greenhouse
gases.
• Introducing product labelling that
will allow consumers to judge the
contamination of the atmosphere
resulting from the manufacture and use
of specific commodities,
Conclusion
Predicted changes to Canada's climate
due to global warming involve changes
in wind and precipitation patterns as
well as temperature. This complicates
any attempt to assess impacts and
reinforces existing doubts that Canada
would be a winner from such warming.
Although the exact details of these
climate changes are not fully known,
studies to date suggest that there will be
major impacts on Canada's natural,
economic, and social systems. In
anticipation of these impacts, Canada
has instituted a broad climate program
to evaluate potential impacts and
promote public awareness and
discussion in Canada and
internationally, a
(Agneiv is Acting Head, Canadian
Climate Program Office.)
JANAURY/FEBRUARY
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Japan
by Roy Popkin
(This article l>y Roy I'opkin of KI'A
Journal is Ixi.sfd on u report by a speckil
panel established by (he Japanese
Envirojnmenl Agency.)
Information and Culture Oruer phoro
EPA JOURNAL
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The government of Japan, a highly
industrialized and intensely farmed
island nation, is deeply concerned about
the potential impact of global wanning
and rising seas resulting from the
Greenhouse Effect. This concern is
reflected in a report published early last
November by a scientific Panel on
Global Warning established by (he
Japanese Environment Agency.
The report documents the Panel's
belief that the Greenhouse Effect is
already with us, saying: "Over the last
hundred years, atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide have
been steadily increasing as a result of
rapidly expanded industrialization and
other human activities." It notes that
during that period, the trapping of these
gases in the earth's atmosphere has
raised global temperatures an average of
O.(5"; that worldwide concentrations of
carbon dioxide (COZ) in the atmosphere
have been steadily increasing; that the
sea level has already risen from 100 to
200 millimeters (4 to 8 inches) during
the century because of what is believed
to be thermal expansion of sea water or
the melting of polar ice.
Further, as it points the way for
government action, international efforts,
and additional research activities, the
Panel report says, "The global warming
problem is one of the most important
problems facing the international
community,"
As in the United States, the Greenhouse
Effect could alter Japan's fishing patterns.
At present, tons of fish pour into Tokyo's
fish market every morning. Before noon,
the stands are empty.
The report then goes on to say,
"Global warming seriously affects the
whole world and is a complicated
process continuing gradually over time.
Once the impact of global warming
occurs, it will be extremely difficult to
reverse the trend and to take remedial
measures ... it may be too late to tackle
The report documents the
Panel's belief that the
Greenhouse Effect is already
with us .
the problem if we wait until actual
damages are shown to be caused by
global warming. It is now necessary
both to actively promote studies on the
topic and to take feasible actions as
soon as possible, based on scientific and
technological information already
available. Global warming is closely
related to other global environmental
problems such as desertification.
deforestation, and marine pollution.
New approaches should be developed to
deal with all of these problems within
one comprehensive system."
Predict the Japanese, "IF no measures
are taken to curtail present energy
usage, the combined concentration of
atmospheric greenhouse gases would by
2030 be double what it was in
pre-industrial times, and the doubling of
CO2 levels alone would cause a
sea-level rise of 2(5 to 165 centimeters
(10 to (55 inches) because of the thermal
expansion of seawater and the melting
of small glaciers." The scientific panel
also sees the potential for increased
winter precipitation in high latitudes
and in the tropics, and a summertime
decrease in precipitation and an
increase in evaporation in the middle
latitudes. The Panel foresees
wide-ranging changes in agricultural
productivity as a result of a northward
movement of farming areas, serious crop
damages and a drop in land
productivity—no small matter for ,1
nation where every inch of productive
farmland is of vital importance. In
addition, it projects extensive social
changes and economic impacts.
The Japanese government
Environment Agency first expressed its
concern over the problem of global
wanning in a 1981 environmental
quality report, and initiated intensive
examination of the problem by its
National Institute for Environmental
Studies iti 1994. This effort, abetted by
the country's Ad Hoc; Group on Global
Environmental Problems, began
formulating recommendations tin-
Japan's approach to global warming in
the spring of !(JHH. These
recommendations ultimately became
part of the Panel report issued in
November, in time for submission to the
United Nations/World Nh'teorolugic.ii
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change meetings which began that
month.
The Japanese urge the international
community and their own government
to develop policies to cope with global
warming that involve the concepts of
prevention, elimination, ami adaptation,
giving preventive technology the highest
priority. This includes energy
conservation through improving the
efficiency of energy systems and
changing life-styles, along with the use
of solar energy and other alternative
energy sources. The report emphasizes
that much of this effort needs to hi!
initiated and completed quickly, in one
to 10 years, to forestall global warming
impacts later in the early or
mid-twentieth century.
Noting that annual worldwide GO..
emissions from human activities total 18
billion tons—far more than emissions ot
JANUARY FEBRUARY
35
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Japan's peaceful Byodoin Temple
provides a respite from busy
streets. The main hall, built in
1053, was built to represent the
mythological bird, the phoenix.
other air pollutants—the report calls
creation of technology to eliminate CO2
from large-scale boilers and to
strengthen emission controls on
emissions of chlorofluorocarbons and
other artificial greenhouse gases.
Prevention of deforestation is also cited
as important to environmental
conservation, with reforestation on a
continental scale needed for effective
absorption of atmospheric COz- The
report also calls for development of
adaptive technologies,such as growing
crops that are resistant to changes in
climate, water supply, and irrigation,
and for the modification of social
systems if necessary to accommodate
changes work habits, farming methods
and areas, transportation patterns, and
perhaps, relocation of populations
because of such factors and the rising
seas.
The Japanese urge the
international community and
their own government to
develop policies to cope with
global warming that involve
the concepts of prevention,
elimination, and
adaptation ....
These efforts, plus a substantial
research program, should be conducted
on international and national levels,
with international groups establishing
guidelines for action based on currently
available and new-found scientific
knowledge. Each nation would be
responsible for taking appropriate
actions in line with the guidelines,
which should include policy and
technical measures related to emission
control of CO-., such as energy
Japan Information and Culture Center photo
conservation, fuel conversion, energy
substitution, improvement of energy
systems, removal of CO2 from
emissions, resource conservation.
development of new forests and other
global biomass, recycling, and other
measures to reduce the effect of other
greenhouse gases.
The report also calls for creation of a
permanent international mechanism to
develop guidelines for worldwide
actions and to continuously monitor
and evaluate their implementation.
Because greenhouse gas emissions are
expected to increase dramatically in
developing countries, where they are
expected to be especially damaging
because of such countries' lack of
resources, developed countries are
urged to share the responsibility for
offering technical and financial
assistance to developing countries to
help them implement appropriate global
warming countermeasures.
At the national level, the report calls
for the Japanese government to draft
national guidelines, participate actively
in international efforts to achieve an
international consensus on global
warming, tc; promote research projects,
to promote public awareness, and to
coordinate the nation's administrative
and scientific efforts to reduce their
nation's contribution to the atmospheric
pollution creating global warming, and
to prepare the nation for the impact of
global warming if and when it worsens.
This includes, says the report,
developing social and economic
measures against global warming, and
studying their cost and feasibility. It
also entails the development of national
and international energy scenarios that
go to the mid-21st Century, and the
development of risk management
methods that will help select the most
effective policy options. To this end, the
panel will continue its work to develop
further recommendations on specific
actions for the Japanese government and
various international bodies to take. J
(Popkin is (i ivn'tor-edifor in (he EPA
Office of Public Affairs.]
36
EPA JOURNAL
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With a Global Focus
by William H. Mansfield III
II /"* lobal warming may be the
vJ greatest challenge facing
humankind," according to Dr. Mostafa
K. Tolba, Executive Director of the
United Nations Environmental
Programme (UNEP) and Under Secretary
General of the United Nations. Indeed,
the mounting concern about climate
change impacts has sent storm warning
flags aloft in the United Nations, where
the President of the Maldives, Maumoon
Abdul Gayoom, gave a dramatic,
impassioned address to the 1987 U.N.
General Assembly on the severe
consequences of sea-level rise on his
low-lying island country. Malta put a
resolution on the same issue poignantly
before the 1988 General Assembly. The
resolution was adopted, and a meeting
of heads of U.N. organizations on
environmental matters in Paris in July
1988 featured climate change as a major
discussion item. It was also a major
topic at the Economic Summit in
Toronto last June.
Sea-level rise as a consequence of
global warming would immediately
threaten that large fraction of the globe
living at sea level. Nearly one-third of
all human beings live within 36 miles of
a coastline. Most of the world's great
seaport cities would be endangered:
New Orleans, Amsterdam, Shanghai,
Cairo. Some countries—the Maldives
Islands in the Indian Ocean, islands in
the Pacific—would be inundated.
Heavily populated coastal areas such as
in Bangladesh and Egypt, where large
populations occupy low-lying areas,
would suffer extreme dislocation.
Warmer oceans would spawn stronger
hurricanes and typhoons, resulting in
coastal flooding, possibly swamping
valuable agricultural lands around the
world. Reduced water quality may
result as coastal flooding forces salt
water into coastal irrigation and
drinking water supplies, and
irreplaceable, natural wetlands could be
flooded with ocean water, destroying
forever many of the unique plant and
animal species living there.
Food supplies and forests would be
adversely affected. Changes in rainfall
patterns would disrupt agriculture.
Warmer temperatures would shift
grain-growing regions palewards. The
warming would also increase and
change the pest plants, such as weeds,
and the insects attacking the crops.
The precedent established in
tackling the stratospheric
ozone issue may well be a
useful model for dealing with
climate change. But climate
change is an infinitely more
complex issue to deal with.
The effects on oceanic fisheries are
not known now, but warming could
result in changing ocean currents and
upwelling and thus fewer nutrients. It
could alter salinity, acidity, and
turbulence, bringing certain harm to the
existing food chain.
These potential disruptions in human
food supplies must be placed against
another stark backdrop: namely the
increase of the human population from
just over 5 billion today to an expected
8 billion in another 40 years, an
increase that will inevitably require
more food.
Human health would be affected.
Warming could enlarge tropical climate
bringing with it yellow fever, malaria,
and other diseases. Heat stress and heat
mortality could rise. The harmful effects
of localized urban air pollution would
very likely be more serious in warmer
conditions. There will be some benefits
from the warming. New sea lanes will
open in the Arctic, longer growing
seasons further north or south will
create new agricultural lands, and
warmer temperatures will make some of
today's colder regions more habitable.
But these benefits will be in individual
areas. The natural systems—both plant
and animal—will be less able than man
to cope and adapt. Any change of
temperature, rainfall, and sea level of
the magnitude now anticipated will be
destructive to natural systems and living
things and hence to man as well.
The list of possible consequences of
global warming suggests very clearly
that we must do everything we can now
to understand its causes and effects and
to take all measures possible to prevent
and adapt to potential and inevitable
disruptions triggered by global warming.
This will not be an easy matter for
two reasons. First we must take such
measures before we have convincing
evidence that warming will have
harmful impacts. Second, the human
activities that are causing the
temperature rise—such as burning of
coal, oil, and wood and the release of
other trace gases—are fundamental to
the world economy. So as with the 1987
Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone
layer, we will have to make a "leap of
faith" to save ourselves and future
generations.
As with the ozone layer, dealing with
climatic change will require (he
cooperation of all nations. Almost all
are contributing to the problem; almost
all will suffer its impacts.
The United Nations is Acting: The first
steps of the great international
collaboration are being taken now
within the U.N. system. To assess the
scientific aspects of the problem,
consider the potential effects of climate
JANAURY/FEBRUARY
37
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Warmer oceans could spawn
stronger hurricanes and typhoons.
This infrared nighttime picture
shows Typhoon Kit in the Pacific. It
was taken by Nimbus II, one of
NASA's weather satellites, from an i
altitude of 700 miles.
change, and identify policy options
available to deal with those effects, the
World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), UNEP. and the International
Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) are
conducting a number of studies and
assessments under the umbrella of the
World Climate Programme. The
International Ceosphere/Biosphere
Programme is studying the interactions
among land, the atmosphere, and the
oceans. A number of national programs
are being launched that will supplement
this work.
The mounting concern about
climate change impacts has
sent storm warning flags aloft
in the United Nations ....
The World Climate Programme is
coordinated by WMO, which handles
the data and applications of climate
knowledge components. ICSU, WMO.
and UNESCO focus on research; UNEP
coordinates climatic impact studies,
including the examination of food
production vulnerability in
climate-sensitive regions. This
information will help us cope with
climatic change.
We are collaborating with other
international organizations,
governments, and non-governmental
organizations to bring together in a
series of conferences and meetings the
world's most distinguished experts and
leading policy-makers to address the
global warming issue. In 1985 the
WMO-UNEP-ICSU Conference in
Villach, Austria, developed—for the first
time—a broad scientific consensus
about anticipated global warming.
The Villach conference established
the primary direction and guidelines for
UNEP's efforts. It identified issues and
provided recommendations for research
needed to quantify the unknowns.
Science and Policy are Early Steps: The
1985 Villach conference recommended
early dialogue between scientific and
political communities on climate
change. UNEP organized a
policy-response study on regional
vulnerabilities with the Beijer Institute
of Sweden at a second conference held
in Villach in 1987. Study results were
presented to policy-makers at a meeting
at Bellagio, Italy, later that year. These
findings and options were fed into the
June 1988 Canadian conference on "The
Changing Atmosphere: Implications for
Global Security." This conference was
supported by UNEP and WMO and set
forth findings and made proposals for
certain lines of policy response to
climate change.
The results of these meetings will
provide important inputs to the Second
World Climate Conference to be held at
Geneva in June 1990 under WMO
auspices, supported by other U.N.
agencies. The 1990 conference will
assess progress and outline further
actions needed.
The Villach conference pointed out
the need for greater understanding of
regional climate change and policy
considerations. UNEP is encouraging
regional studies around the world. Some
of these are being conducted by
governments, including Canada's Great
Lakes Study, a U.S. study, and a Dutch
study of sea-level rise impact on
society. UNEP supported the
Netherlands European Workshop on
interrelated bioclimatic and land-use
changes in October 1987, which
considered possible climate change
impacts in Europe.
In the developing world, we have
initiated regional studies in Southeast
Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Using a
variety of analytical methods, we are
seeking to identify the environmental
sectors susceptible to climate change,
then to quantify possible impacts and
develop an array of possible response
options.
Likewise, we have commissioned
studies on the climatic impacts
associated with the Eastern Pacific
Ocean's El Nino phenomenon and have
published a study by the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA) in Vienna on research needs in
agriculture, water resources, marine
fisheries, and forest management; we
have also commissioned studies on food
production in cool, temperate, cold, and
semi-arid zones.
Sea-Level Rise is Critical: Villach put
the finger on the problem of sea-level
rise. UNEP has commissioned a
vulnerability analysis of global, coastal,
delta, and estuarine regions susceptible
to sea-level rise. Our Ocean and Coastal
Areas Programme is conducting a
climate change and sea-level impact
study for each major global region.
Programme leaders convened a
conference at Split, Yugoslavia, from
October 3 to 8, 1988, and issued a report
on implications of climate changes in
the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the
South-East Pacific, the South Pacific,
the East Asian, and the South Asian
Seas.
Under UNEP's international
coordination role for information and
research, we are establishing a network
of the more active climate impact
programs and facilitating
communication and cooperation among
them. As more countries conduct
impact studies, the value of the network
will increase.
To disseminate knowledge on climate
change, we have published books and
pamphlets, prepared audio-visual
material ano! TV films, and sponsored
training courses.
38
EPA JOURNAL
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Putting International Institutions in
Place: Beyond gathering and
disseminating scientific information, it
is also imperative to organize the
institutions that can direct and
coordinate international efforts to deal
with climate change. In addition to the
World Climate Programme's scientific.
work, the WMO-UNEP-ICSU Advisory
Group on Greenhouse Gases has been
set up to advise their executive heads
on global warming issues. And because
ozone-depleting trace gases affect global
warming, the Coordinating Committee
on the Ozone Layer, set up to provide
scientific assessment on the ozone layer
problem, also provides assessments
related to warming—including the
climatic consequences of changing
quantities of CFCs and tropospheric
ozone.
The next major organizational step
(which parallels earlier action under the
ozone convention) is to bring together,
within a permanent framework, the
appropriate governmental experts to
consider climate change. In response to
decisions of their governing bodies.
UNEF and VVIvIO have formed the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), which held its first
meeting in Geneva November 9-11.
Together, we must prepare for
anticipated change, be ready
to take adaptive and
limitation measures . . . and
capitalize on whatever
benefits are possible.
1988. The IPCC] will be the major
intergovernmental body addressing
climate change. It is comprised of
governmental experts on climate
change, environment, and development
planning from all regions of the world.
It will regularly review scientific
evidence, assess social and economic
impacts, and evaluate national and
international policy options to address
the problem.
At the same time, U.N. agency heads
are considering possible steps that
would strengthen their own cooperation
on measures to address global wanning.
Continuing Action Needed: These
actions represent only a modest, indeed
humble, start in our effort to address the
world's largest and most far-reaching
environmental concern. Many
additional steps will be needed. The
precedent established in tackling the
stratospheric ozone issue may well be a
useful model for dealing with climate
change. But climate change is an
infinitely more complex issue to deal
with.
These early actions can help the
community of nations enter the 21st
century less a victim of disturbed nature
and more in a position to exert some
control over the climatic change
problem. Together, we must prepare for
anticipated change, be ready to take
adaptive and limitation measures such
as reforestation and coastal defense
construction, and capitalize on whatox -or
benefits are possible.
The task ahead will be long and hard.
It will involve each of us individually
and our entire society, and wo have
barely begun. Nonetheless, the wanning
is a warning. And if we are to leave
future generations a liveable world, wo
have little choice but to address climate
change with all the energy,
determination, and wisdom wo have.
UNEP and the I'.N. system will bo
active partners in facing that
challenge. LJ
(Mansfield is Deputy- Executive; Director
of the United Nations Environment
Programme. He was previously at EPA
as Deputy Associate Administrator for
International Activities (I9K3-86I and
Director of Bilateral International
Programs (1971-74).)
JANAURY.'FEBRUARY
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Strategic Implications
by William Nitze
APWide Wathl photo
Low-lying countries like Bangladesh already have flood problems.
In September 1988, monsoon flooding caused rivers to overflow;
about three-quarters of the country was inundated.
40
EPA JOURNAL
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It is already fashionable to
predict winners and losers
from global climate change
with statements such as "the
grain belt will move north" or
"the tropics will get more
rain."
Global climate change may present
mankind with its greatest
environmental challenge to date. It
appears more and more likely that
increasing concentrations of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere will cause average
global temperatures to rise by 1.5" to
4.5° Centigrade within the next half
century or so.
Existing global circulation models are
not capable of predicting the magnitude
and timing of this global warming with
any degree of precision. They are even
less capable of predicting the regional
distribution of temperature change and
its associated effects. The models appear
to agree, however, that temperature
changes will be greater in northern
latitudes than at the equator, that sea
levels will rise, and that some areas will
receive significantly less rainfall than
they do today—and some significantly
more.
If global warming occurs within the
time frame and temperature range
roughly predicted and if these general
predictions about its distribution and
effects hold true, there will be strategic
impacts on all nations and on every
sector of human activity.
To assess these strategic impacts, one
must look at the capacity of individual
societies and the international system as
a whole for "anticipatory response." By
capacity for anticipatory response 1
mean a nation's ability to defer current
consumption in order to strengthen its
ability to minimize future adverse
impacts, even when the nature and
timing of those impacts is uncertain.
This capacity depends more on the
political, economic, and social
characteristics of a nation than on its
physical characteristics.
It is already fashionable to predict
winners and losers from global climate
change with statements such as "the
grain belt will move north" or "the
tropics will get more rain." Not only are
these statements difficult to prove, given
the current state of scientific knowledge,
but they disregard relative capacities for
anticipatory response. For example, the
Netherlands and Bangladesh each face a
similar problem with sea-level rise, yet
there is little doubt that the former has a
far greater capacity for anticipatory
response than the latter.
From a purely physical perspective, a
small island nation such as Japan has
far less room to maneuver in responding
to global warming than a huge
continental nation such as the Soviet
Union. But japan would appear to have
the greater capacity for anticipatory
response if one takes other factors into
account. In general, one can say that
low population density, high per-capita
income, and technological
sophistication contribute to a nation's
capacity for early, preventive response
and that their opposites detract from it.
Another factor I see contributing to a
nation's capacity for anticipatory
response is the openness of its political
system. At first blush it might appear
that authoritarian states with
command-and-control economies would
have an easier time imposing changes in
energy use, agricultural practices, and
other resource uses to minimize and
adapt to climate change. Experience
indicates, however, that effective
responses to long-term changes of this
kind require a combination of market
signals, development of new
technologies, grass-root political
support, and participation by
non-governmental groups which is only
possible in democratic societies.
The United States is an interesting
case in point. As de Tocqueville pointed
out more than 150 years ago, American
democracy seems to have a short time
horizon and has not always been
successful in developing and carrying
out long-term policies. At times of
crisis, however, the American people
have been able to marshal their
creativity and other resources with great
success. One can only hope that a
growing public understanding of global
climate change, combined with strong
leadership at the national level, will
enable us to make political decisions in
the short term that will preserve our
options in the long term.
To assess the capacity for anticipatory
response of any one nation, however, is
to miss the crucial point. The
cumulative impacts of manmade
greenhouse gas emissions cannot be
restricted to any one nation or region,
but affect the atmosphere over the
whole globe. No matter how well any
one country does in minimizing
greenhouse gas emissions or adapting to
climate changes, it is at the mercy of its
neighbors. Therefore, we must look to
the international system as a whole and
in particular to organizations such as
the United Nations Environment
Programme to develop international
strategies to deal with climate change.
It is in the interest of all of us that our
joint capacity for participatory response
be developed and strengthened. In the
end, one of the greatest benefits that
may emerge from meeting the challenge
of global climate change is international
cooperation on an unprecedented
scale. D
(Nitze is Deputy Assistant Secretary of
State for Environment, Health, and
Natural Resources.]
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
41
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The Wheels
Are Beginning to Turn
by Linda Fisher
A cjlobal perspective: the sun fades in eclipse behind
the lil;ii:k nth its tlu; Apollo 12 astronauts
hi.Mtl tin ihc second Urnm lamfiruj mission, ',
nit is ii worldwide problem that will require
unprecedented ^oopei.ttion .mumo ;iii countries.
NASA photo
Global warming is an international
problem that will require extensive
and unprecedented cooperation among
both developed and lesser developed
countries. No single country, acting
alone, will be able decisively to affect
the global warming problem .
Moreover, within any one country, no
single sector is entirely responsible for
the problem. The transportation,
industrial, commercial, and residential
sectors all contribute to greenhouse
gas emissions—just as many sectors of
the economy may be affected by global
warming. Thus no single policy
initiative can effectively mitigate
mantnade climate change.
EPA is actively involved in both
domestic and international activities
related to global climate change. The
Global Climate Protection Act of 1987
requires that the U.S. President, through
EPA, "shall be responsible for
developing and proposing to Congress a
coordinated national policy on global
climate change." The Act also requires
the Secretary of State to pursue
international cooperation on limiting
global climate change. It requires the
Secretary of State and the EPA
Administrator jointly to submit, by the
end of 1989, a report that will:
• Analyze current international
scientific understanding of the
Greenhouse Effect.
• Assess U.S. efforts to gain
international cooperation in limiting
global climate change.
• Describe a U.S. strategy for seeking
further international cooperation to
limit global climate change.
This is a very broad mandate that will
require close cooperation with other
federal agencies (including the
Departments of Energy, Agriculture, and
Interior, NASA, the Army Corps of
Engineers, the National Climate Program
Office, and the Domestic Policy Council.
The Act encourages coordination of
domestic and international climate
activities with research and impact
analyses that are consistent with policy
goals.
EPA JOURNAL
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EPA and other federal agencies are
attempting to develop a process for
designing a national policy that will
respond to the global warming problem.
Such a national policy must include
options for adapting to climate change,
and options for stabilizing the
atmosphere and limiting emissions of
greenhouse gases. It must reflect
assessments of the feasibility of
alternative technologies for stabilization
and mitigation, and assessments of the
costs of these technologies. EPA has
already identified, for example, improve-
ments in "end-use" efficiencies —
cost-effecttve ways of reducing
emissions of greenhouse gases. Such
end-use efficiency options include
making appliances, buildings, and
transportation more energy-efficient,
enhancing industrial competitiveness
with energy-efficiency research,
promoting least-cost utility services, and
promoting international cooperation to
encourage energy efficiency on a global
basis. All of these considerations should
be included in a national policy
framework.
At the international level, several
organizations have recognized the need
for multilateral cooperation and have
become involved with the global climate
change issue. The United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) is
responsible for conducting climate
impact assessments. The World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) is
supporting research and monitoring of
atmospheric and physical sciences. The
International Council of Scientific
Unions (ICSU) is developing an
international geosphere-biosphere
program.
EPA is actively involved in many of
these efforts. On the multilateral level,
the Agency is working with the
Department of State and other federal
agencies to support UNEP and WMO in
establishing an Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC). The panel is
developing a vigorous international
process to address global climate change
issues. It is channeling efforts into three
tracks: first, to assess the state of
scientific knowledge on climate change;
second, to assess the potential social
and economic effects from a warming,
and third, to assess potential response
strategies.
Such a national policy must
include options for adapting to
climate change, and options
for stabilizing the atmosphere
and limiting emissions of
greenhouse gases.
The first meeting of the IPCC was
held in Geneva in November 1988. At
this initial meeting, the IPCC
established three working groups. The
first work group, chaired by the United
Kingdom, is responsible for the timely
production of reports on the assessment
of available scientific knowledge on
climate change. Brazil and Senegal are
vice chairs of this group. The second
group, chaired by the U.S.S.R., will
assess the environmental and
socio-economic impacts of climate
change. Australia and Japan are vice
chairs of this second group. The third
working group will formulate response
strategies. This group is chaired by the
United States, with Canada, China,
Malta, the Netherlands, and Zimbabwe
serving as vice chairs. Each working
group is expected to deliver its final
report to the IPCC by late 1990.
EPA also has bilateral relationships
with the Soviet Union and China. Since
1972 the United States and the U.S.S.R.
have been actively cooperating in the
field of environmental protection and
have conducted joint research on a wide
variety of environmental issues. In 1987,
EPA also signed a biJateral agreement
with the Peoples' Republic of China,
which included specific provisions on
climate change. In general, these
bilateral agreements provide an
excellent opportunity to facilitate
international cooperation and mutual
understanding of the climate change
issue.
The Agency has studied the effects of
global warming for several years, and by
Congressional request is currently
producing two reports. The first report
examines the policy options that, if
implemented, would stabilize current
levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations. The second report
studies the health and environmental
effects of climate change in the United
States, including such issues as
agriculture, forests, water resources, as
well as other ecosystems and societal
impacts.
EPA, along with other federal
agencies, will continue to be an active
participant in the formulation of a
policy-oriented federal research agenda
and in future debates over strategies to
adapt to climate change or to limit
emissions. The evolution of national
policy in this area will be complex, and
the formulation of a coordinated
international response may take many
years. Much work remains to be done
by the research community to
understand emissions, the interactions
of emissions with the biosphere, and the
ultimate effect on man and the
environment of increasing greenhouse
gas emission into the atmosphere. Q
(Fisher is Assistant Administrator/or
EPA's Office of Policy, Planning, and
Evaluation.)
JANAURY/FEBRUARY
43
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Part of the Problem
and Part of the Answer
by Sandra Postel
Over the last century—a mere instant
of geologic time—the activities of
the human species have caused
unprecedented changes in the
atmosphere. A continuing buildup of
certain chemical compounds—most
Importantly, carbon dioxide (CO;.)—is
propelling the environment towards [a|
potentially catastrophic shift .... Fossil
fuel combustion has spewed 150 to 190
billion tons of carbon into the air. and
forest clearing for cropland and
fuelwood has contributed an additional
90 to 180 billion tons ....
While some climatic change is
inevitable, societies can gain precious
time to adapt if action is taken now to
dampen its ultimate magnitude and
slow its pace. The first step requires
curbing the use of fossil fuels, now the
leading cause; of the C()^ buildup.
Hut there is another step crucial to
restoring atmospheric: balance:
protecting our remaining forests and
planting more trees. Forests and
woodlands are vast storehouses of
carbon, so clearing and burning
them—as is now happening on a large
scale in the tropics—contributes to
COv-induced climate change. Because
trees remove CO2 from the air through
photosynthesis, planting more of them
can be part of the remedy. Therein lies
an opportunity to capitalize on the
enduring link between earthly life and
the atmosphere—by reforesting the
earth ....
The earth's trees, shrubs, and soils
hold about two trillion tons of carbon,
roughly triple the amount stored in the
atmosphere. When vegetation is cleared
and burned, or just left to decay, the
carbon it contains, along with some of
that in the underlying soil, is oxidi/.ed
and released to join the atmospheric
pool of (XV
Today the bulk of the CO2 emitted
from the land in this way comes from
developing countries in the tropics.
Each year, 28 million acres of tropical
forest are destroyed through the
combined action of land clearing for
crop production, fuelwood gathering,
and cattle ranching. Commercial timber
There is another step crucial
to restoring atmospheric
balance: protecting our
remaining forests and planting
more trees.
harvesting degrades an additional 11
million acres. All told, an area of trees
slightly larger than New York and
Vermont combined is lost or logged
each year.
Scientists have spent many years
trying to pinpoint how much carbon is
added to the atmosphere through forest
clearing In a January 1988 Science
magazine article, R. P. Detweiler and
Charles Hall placed the amount of
carbon released by tropical deforestation
in 1980 somewhere between 0.4 and 1.6
billion tons. Another authoritative
study, led by Richard Houghton,
associate scientist at the Woods Hole
Research Institute in Massachusetts,
figured it to be between 0.9 and 2.5
billion tons. Since about 5 billion tons
are emitted each year by fossil fuel
burning, the midpoint of Houghton's
estimate would attribute one-quarter of
the total annual carbon buildup to
deforestation.
Houghton and his colleagues . . .
estimate 40 percent [of these emissions]
comes from tropical America, 37
percent from tropical Asia, and 23
percent from tropical Africa. Just five
countries account for half of all carbon
emissions: Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia.
the Ivory Coast, and Thailand.
Brazil alone already contributes a fifth
of the total, a figure likely to rise if
deforestation in the Amazon continues.
A recent study of satellite data by
Braxil's Institute of Space Research
suggests that 20 million acres of forest
were cleared and burned in the
Brazilian Amazon in 1987, some three
times the annual rate of clearing that
had been estimated for the early 1980s.
A worrisome twist to the
forest/climate change link is- how the
world's remaining forests will behave in
a warmer climate and an atmosphere
richer in CO2 ....
Higher CO2 levels usually have a
fertilizing effect on plants, spurring
them to grow faster .... If trees did
indeed grow faster as atmospheric: CO:.
levels increased, they would remove
carbon from the atmosphere more
rapidly. This "negative feedback" would
help slow the global warming. So far,
unfortunately, no convincing evidence
suggests that trees in their natural
environments would respond this way
Another possibility results in positive
feedback, a worsening of the warming
trend. George Woodwell, director of the
Woods Hole Research Institute, points
out that as temperatures rise, trees and
microorganisms in the soil substantially
increase their rates of respiration ....
The danger is that an increase! in
respiration because of rising
temperatures could release more CO2 to
the atmosphere, reinforcing the very
buildup that initiated the warming.
if respiration exceeded photosynthesis
for an extended period of time, trees
would stop growing altogether and
Forests and woodlands are vast
storehouses of carbon; thus, the
practice of clearing and burning
them contributes to carbon
dioxide-induced climate change.
Here, a Panamanian forest has
been cleared in preparation for
crop planting. Photo is from the
exhibit, "Tropical Rainforests: A
Disappearing Treasure," organized
and circulated by the Smithsonian
Institution's Traveling Exhibition
Service in cooperation with the
World Wildlife Fund. The exhibit
will travel to 14 U.S. cities through
1994.
•14
EPA JOURNAL
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ultimately die .... VVoodwell
maintains that a widespread forest
die-off could release enormous amounts
of carbon to the atmosphere—perhaps
hundreds of billions of tons—depending
on the speed of the wanning. He warns
that "the sudden destruction of forests
by air pollution, now being experienced
in northern and central Europe... is but
a sample of the destruction that appears
to be in store."
Woodwell's scenario might never
come to pass. Ecologists do not yet
agree on how forests will respond to a
warmer climate, or even on whether
that response will add COv to the
atmosphere or remove it. Some point
out, for example, that higher
temperatures would increase rates of
organic decomposition, which in turn
would release nutrients to the soil and
thus potentially boost the productivity
of trees. This could cause a helpful
negative feedback: .since trees would be
growing faster, they would remove more
CO2 from the atmosphere, helping slow
the warming.
How forests will actually respond
looms large in the climate change
picture, since the potential for a strong
feedback—positive or negative—clearly
exists.
Protecting forests and planting trees
need to be high on the international
agenda for several compelling reasons
other than stabilizing the global carbon
cycle. The growing wave of
deforestation has left in its wake a
severe energy crisis in the Third World
(wood provides the primary source of
energy for more than two-thirds of the
people in developing countries), an
accelerating loss of the earth's biological
diversity, and large areas of degraded
land ....
Countries are unlikely to invest
substantial resources in tree planting
solely to ward off global warming. But,
in much of the Third World, satisfying
fuelwood needs and restoring
productivity to degraded ecosystems
provide a sound — even
urgent — rationale. Expanding forest
cover for these purposes would yield
the added bonus of slowing the buildup
of CO-... which gives industrial countries
ample reason to step up support for t ivo
planting in the Third World.
An analysis by the Worldwatch
Institute suggests than an additional 320
million acres' of trees — an area nearly
twice the size of Texas — will be needed
by the year 2000 to meet developing
countries' growing demands for fuel and
industrial wood products and to
rehabilitate deteriorating ecosystems.
What contribution could that much tree
planting make to slowing the COj
buildup? Too many uncertainties exist
to answer this question precisely, but
some back-of-the-envelope calculations
suggest . . . that |an effort of this sort]
would cut net carbon releases from
tropical forests by nearly half.
Cdfl Hanson photo Sfnithsonian institution
JANAURY/FEBRUARY
45
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A worrisome twist to the
forest/climate change link is
how the world's remaining
forests will behave in a
warmer climate and an
atmosphere richer in CO2 • •
Of course, slowing the destruction of
existing forests is also crucial. Halving
the C;C)v contribution from deforestation
in Brazil, Indonesia, Colombia, and the
Ivory Coast would reduce net carbon
emissions from tropical forests by more
than 20 percent. Together, that
achievement and the carbon-storage
benefits of 300 million acres of trees
would cut releases from tropical forests
by two-thirds. The total amount of
carbon added to the atmosphere from all
human activities—deforestation and
fossil fuel combustion—would be cut by
17 percent.
According to Houghton and his
colleagues, natural systems in Europe
and possibly Japan and South Korea are
already accumulating more carbon than
they are releasing. Many European
countries have in recent decades
abandoned substantial areas of cropland
and allowed forests to regrow ....
Japan and South Korea have purposely
planted large areas in trees. Japan now
has the fourth largest area of
commercial tree plantations in the
world, nearly 24 million acres ....
[South] Koreans planted an area in
pines roughly equivalent to two-thirds
of the area cultivated in rice, their
staple food.
As a result of the Food Security Act of
1985, the United States could also turn
some of its land into a carbon bank. The
Act created the Conservation Reserve,
under which farmers will take at least
40 million acres of highly erodible
cropland out of production by 1990 and
plant it in trees or grass. Each acre of
recovered grassland or woodland will
store roughly 16 more tons of carbon
than when it was cultivated. Assuming
the carbon accumulates at an average
Ken Andrssko photo.
This village girl in Nepal is tending
seedlings. These tiny trees include 20
species to replant in deforested areas in
the Himalaya Mountains. Tests are being
conducted to see which types grow best
in Nepal's high altitudes.
yearly rate of half a ton per acre as the
land undergoes conversion, the reserve
would absorb a total of 20 million tons
of carbon annually for the next three
decades, assuming the land remains in
the reserve ....
Can the community of nations plant
trees on the scale required to improve
prospects in the Third World and
simultaneously help balance the global
carbon cycle? There are reasons for
optimism.
International development agencies
now recognize that rural people form
the only labor force large enough to
plant trees on the vast scale that is
needed. More than ever before, this
labor force is being mobilized into
action ....
International relief agencies, such as
CARE in the United States and Oxfam
in the United Kingdom, have
orchestrated some of the most
successful reforestation projects to date.
Worldwide, thousands of women's
groups, peasant collectives, churches
and other small, local organizations
have taken up the cause of tree planting
.... Kenya's Greenbelt Movement . . .
has enlisted . . . more than 15,000 farmers
and a half-million schoolchildren in
setting up 670 community nurseries and
planting more than two million trees
Chinese officials have set a goal of
getting 20 percent of their country's
territory in trees by the year 2000 ....
Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Chandi
tripled funding for forestry in his
development agenda for 1985-90, gave
forestry new prominence within his
ministries, and created a National
Wastelands Development Board to
spearhead a "people's movement" for
reforestation ....
Reforestation's potential to help avert
climate change barely gets mentioned in
reports or plans that sketch out
forestry's future. But as the
consequences of global warming
becoming clearer, and their magnitude
and cost hit home, tree planting solely
for the purpose of stabilizing climate
could appear on the international agenda.
Environmental philosopher Rene'
Dubos pleaded for people to "think
globally, act locally." Perhaps no
activity harmonizes global interests and
local needs better than does
reforestation. Reforesting an area equal
to twice the size of Texas by the year
2000 entails successfully establishing
some 18.4 billion trees annually. That
target sounds staggering, but it would
only require each person now living in
the Third World to plant and care for
five seedlings a year.
A strategy of forest protection and tree
planting cannot by itself ward off
climatic change .... But curbing
deforestation and planting trees will
help our generation ensure that
succeeding ones inherit a habitable
earth. D
fPostel is rice president for research at
Worldvvatch Institute. This article, is cm
excerpt adapted from her article
entitled "A Green Fix to the Global
Warm-up," published in World Watch
magazine (Vol. 1. No. 5:
September-October 19S8J.)
46
EPA JOURNAL
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Can the Human Race
Be Saved?
by Gus Speth
Today, in the last years of the
20th Century, pollution is
occurring on a vast and
unprecedented scale around
the globe.
In an amusing scene in a recent
popular movie, the intrepid Captain
Kirk awakes from the sleep of the time
traveller and, gazing out, sees that his
starship is. as hoped, orbiting Karth.
"Earth!" he says, "but when?" To which
the genetically unflappable Spock,
checking his instrument panel, replies,
"Judging from the pollution content of
the atmosphere, 1 believe we have
arrived at the latter half of the 20th
Century." And indeed they had. And so
have we. And there is plenty of
pollution hen; to measure.
Today, in the last years of the 20th
Century, pollution is occurring on a vast
and unprecedented scale around the
globe. Trends since World War II have
been in two directions: first, toward
large releases of certain chemicals,
principally from using fossil fuels that
are now significantly altering natural
systems on a global scale and, second,
toward steady increases in the release of
innumerable biocidal products and toxic
substances. These shifts from the
"sewage and soot" concerns of the
pre-war period to vastly more serious
concerns pose formidable challenges tor
societies—challenges that today's
pollution control laws just begin to
address.
The dramatic changes in pollution in
this century are best described in terms
of four long-term trends.
First is the trend from modest
quantities to huge quantities. The 20th
Century has witnessed unprecedented
growth in human population and
economic activity. World population
has increased more than threefold; gross
world product by perhaps twentyfold;
and fossil fuel use by more than tenfold.
Second is the trend from gross insults
to microtoxicity, from natural products
to synthetic ones. Paralleling the
dramatic growth in the volume of older
polInfants, such as sulfur dioxide, has
been the introduction in the post-World
n
-
fe
111111 til* i »u < •]
, iV . •••--''•
i Frey photo Time magazine
Facing naturu. elevens of giant gates, shaped like empty
steel boxes, will be installed in the three shipping canals
that connect the Venice Lagoon with the Adriatic Sea.
When no storms threaten, the boxes will be filled with
water and hinged to a concrete foundation buried in the
iagoon bed so shipping can proceed. Here, the first gate of
the "Moses Project" is towed out to sea.
War 11 period of new synthetic
chemicals and radioactive substances,
many of which are highly toxic even in
minute quantities and some of which
persist and accumulate in biological
systems or in the atmosphere.
Third is the trend from First World to
Third World. A myth easily exploded
by a visit to many developing countries
is that pollution is predominantly a
problem of the highly industrialized
countries. While it is true that the
industrial countries account tor the bulk
of the pollutants produced today,
pollution is a grave problem in
developing countries, and many of the
most alarming examples of its
consequences can be found there.
These first three trends combine, with
others, to produce the fourth, the trend
from local effects to global effects. When
the volumes of pollution were much
smaller and the pollutants similar to
natural substances, impacts tended to be
confined to limited geographic areas
near sources. Today, the scale and
intensity of pollution make its
consequences truly global.
Nothing better illustrates this
broadening of the concern about
pollution from a local altair to a global
one than air pollution. Local air
pollution is improving in some cities in
industrial countries, but it is worsening
in others, principally in developing
countries, and is hardly solved
anywhere, Meanwhile, global use of
fossil fuels, and emissions of traditional
pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen
oxides that result from it. continue to
climb. Acid rain, o/.one, and other
consequences of these pollutants an;
affecting plant and animal life killing
forests and fish, damaging crops.
changing the species composition of
ecosystems—over vast areas of the
globe. Depletion of the stratosphere's
ozone layer is a matter of such concern
that an international treaty has been
negotiated to reduce emissions of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), but the
latest measurements indicate the current
protocol is already inadequate. And,
probably most serious of all, the
buildup of infra-red trapping
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
JANUARY'FEBRUARY
47
-------
continues. This buildup is largely a
consequence of the use of fossil fuels
and CFCs, deforestation, and various
agricultural activities, and it now
threatens societies with far-reaching
climate change.
These interrelated atmospheric issues
probably constitute the most serious
pollution threat in history. I say
"interrelated" because these
atmospheric issues are linked in ways
that scientists are still discovering, and
the scientists are far ahead of our
policymakers. First, they are linked in
time. The view is still common today
When we take all these
challenges together, we see
that we are witnessing nothing
less than the emergence of a
new environmental agenda.
that, initially, we should address local
air pollution, then we should turn
attention to regional issues like acid
rain, and then, at some point in the
future, we should address the global
issue of greenhouse gases. But the
failures of our clean air efforts make
urban air quality an issue for today,
forcing a 1970s issue from the past into
the present. Simultaneously, the
realizations that greenhouse gases other
than carbon dioxide (CO2) double the
urgency of the problem, and that
societies may have already committed
the planet to a 1° to 2.5° C global
average warming—these realizations are
forcing what was thought to be a
"21st-century issue" into the present.
These atmospheric issues are also
linked in the vast chemical reactor that
is the atmosphere, where pollutants
react with each other, other substances,
and solar energy in a fiendishly
complex set of circular interactions.
Touch one problem, you may touch
them all.
Third, they are linked in their effects
on people and on the biota. What are
the consequences of multiple stresses—a
variety of pollutants, heat waves and
climate changes, increased ultraviolet
radiation—when realized together? Who
knows? We are still learning.
And these atmospheric issues are
linked through the sources of the
pollutants involved. CFCs, for example,
contribute both to greenhouse warming
and ozone layer destruction, but the
dominant source of these problems is
the use of fossil fuels.
In short, the time to address all these
atmosphere problems—local, regional,
global—is now. The way to address all
these problems is together. And, in the
long run, the key to these problems is
energy.
What can we say about the U.S. role
in causing these atmospheric problems?
We should take pride in what has been
accomplished to date under the Clean
Air Act and various U.S. energy laws.
But let's not overdo it. The United
States still produces about 15 percent of
the world's sulfur dioxide emissions,
about 25 percent of NOx, 25 percent of
the CO2, and we manufacture about 30
percent of the CFCs. While emissions of
criteria air pollutants other than NOx
have fallen over the last 15 years, a
period during which real GNP grew
about 50 percent, emissions today still
exceed two-thirds of 1970 amounts,
particulates excepted. In other words,
the bulk of the pollution that gave rise
to the Clean Air Act in 1970 continues.
Similarly, real strides have been made
in increasing U.S. energy efficiency:
between 1973 and 1985, per capita
energy use in the United States fell 12
percent while per capita gross domestic
product rose 17 percent. Still, the
United States today remains a gas
guzzler of a nation, consuming a fourth
of the world's energy annually and
producing only half the GNP per unit of
energy input as countries such as West
Germany, Brazil, France, Japan, and
Sweden.
Beyond these atmospheric issues are
other pollution concerns, and beyond
them the challenge of the planet's
biological degradation—deforestation,
desertification, the loss of
biodiversity—in short, the steady
process of biological impoverishment.
When we take all these challenges
together, we see that we are witnessing
nothing less than the emergence of a
new environmental agenda. This new
agenda encompasses the great
life-support systems of the planet's
biosphere. It is global in scope and
international in implication. It is rapidly
forcing itself on the attention of
policymakers and the public at large.
In the early 1970s the CBS Evening
News with Walter Cronkite ran a series
of environmental stories entitled "Can
The World Be Saved?" I remember the
globe behind this title was firmly
grasped by a hand which seemed to
People everywhere are
offended by pollution. They
sense intuitively that we have
pressed beyond limits we
should not have exceeded.
come from nowhere. I was never sure
whether this hand was crushing our
small planet or saving it, but I was sure
at least that Cronkite was out to save it.
He dramatically presented the much
simpler environmental problems of that
period to a huge audience, and helped
build the powerful environmental
consciousness of the day. Today, the
question "Can The World Be Saved?" is
a much more serious and legitimate
question than it was then.
Societies near and far have set two
long-term goals for themselves:
improving environmental quality, in
part by reducing current pollution
levels, and achieving a virtual order of
magnitude increase in economic
activity. Let us not deceive ourselves, or
accept blithely the assurances of
political leaders who say casually that
we can have both. We know from sad
experience that we can have economic
growth without having environmental
protection. But the stakes on the
environmental side are much higher
now, and they will be one of the
dominant challenges facing leaders on
all continents in the 1990s and beyond.
48
EPA JOURNAL
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AP/Wnte World photo
It will need constant attention at the
highest levels of government. It will
require strong, effective, smart
government.
Environmentalism began on the
outside, on the periphery of the
economy, saving a bit of landscape here,
bottling up some pollution there. It will
inevitably spread as creed and code to
permeate to the core of the economies of
the world. We will all be
environmentalists soon.
If these are the challenges before us,
what should be done? Let's rephrase
Cronkite's question into a somewhat
more answerable one: how can the
world be saved? Certainly, we must
strengthen the efforts already begun.
The regulatory programs of the
industrial countries have yielded
definite results over the last two
decades, and continuing challenges will
require that these programs be
enhanced. Monitoring and enforcement
capabilities must be strengthened; new
types and sources of pollution must be
tackled; inter-media effects must be
attended to; regional and global
approaches to pollution control must
become increasingly common; and the
overall regulatory process must become
more cost-effective, efficient, and
streamlined. And much, much more
attention needs to be paid to the
pollution problems of the developing
countries. They can learn from our
successes and failures, and pioneer new
development paths rather than repeat
old ones.
One might say that only technology
can save us. That is a hard thing for a
congenital Luddite like myself to say. In
a small victory of nurture over nature, I
do now believe it. 1 do not diminish the
importance of life-style changes—some
go hand-in-hand with technological
change—and I await the spread of more
voluntary simplicity in our rich society.
But growth has its imperatives; for
much of the world it is the imperative
of meeting basic human needs. And, we
must not forget it is sustainable
economic development—growth that
takes the pressure of mass poverty off
an eroding resource base—that is an
essential component of environmental
progress worldwide.
Santa Barbara's 1969 oil spill
helped raise the public's
consciousness about pollution
problems. Concern for a safe,
decent environment is now global.
To guide and speed the application of
solution-oriented technologies will
require policy action in the form of both
economic incentives and direct
regulation. It will require institutional
innovation and concerted action at the
national and international level. Today,
the problems are coming faster than the
solutions. We will need a new
international law to reflect the
environmental concerns in our trade
and other international economic
relations.
If we and other countries are to meet
our economic and environmental
Politicians around the globe
are increasingly hearing the
demand that things be set
right. And that is very good
news indeed.
challenges, what energy paths should
we take? The coming energy
transformation, I would argue, must
have rapid energy efficiency
improvements as its dominant feature,
supplemented by increased reliance on
renewable energy sources. The potential
for energy efficiency gains through
technological change is simply
enormous. If the efficiency in energy
use current in Japan today could be
matched in the United States and
around the world, total economic output
could be doubled globally, and virtually
doubled in the United States, without
increasing energy use.
Auto efficiency provides a good
example of what is possible. Miles per
gallon achieved by new cars sold in the
United States doubled from 13 mpg to
25 mpg between 1973 and 1985. Ford,
Honda, and Suzuki all have cars in
production that could double this again
to 50 mpg, and Toyota has a prototype
family car that could double efficiency
again to almost 100 mpg. I am reminded
here that there is a huge role for the
private sector in the coming
technological transformation. Those
companies that see the future can profit
from it.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
49
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In such a low-energy, high-efficiency
future, the great energy supply debates,
such as coal vs. nuclear, which
preoccupy us so, lose much of their
significance, and pollution problems are
knocked down to more manageable
proportions.
Large energy efficiency gains, and the
consequent reductions in C02
emissions, will be essential in
addressing what is probably the most
serious environmental challenge of all:
the global warming, which seems
already to have begun. I recognize the
uncertainties remaining in
characterizing the Greenhouse Effect,
but given the risks, I would advocate
consideration now of a series of
international conventions responsive to
the various aspects of the problem.
First, we need to secure swift
international approval for the ozone
layer protection protocol signed in
Montreal last year. We need this for its
own sake and to continue the momentum
that can get the nations of the world
back to the table so that a complete,
swift phase-out of CFCs can be
negotiated. The phase-out is fully
justified on ozone layer grounds alone,
but the fact is that a CFC phase-out is
the fastest and cheapest way societies
can do something major to contain the
Greenhouse Effect.
Second, we need an overall global
climate protection convention, the
prime goal of which should be to
stabilize atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases at safe levels. This
convention should focus particularly on
steps needed to secure reductions in
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use. Two
facts stand out in this regard: the United
States and the Soviet Union together
account for almost half of global CO2
emissions today, and the United States,
the Soviet Union, and China together
account for about 90 percent of the
estimated coal reserves.
Third, the time is ripe for an
international agreement to protect the
world's tropical forests and to reforest
the spreading wasteland areas in many
developing countries. The industrial
nations have a double stake in halting
50
the now rapid clearing of the tropical
forests. Not only are these forests
repositories for about half of the wildlife
and genetic wealth of the planet, but
CO2 emissions from biotic sources such
as deforestation are estimated to be
about a fifth of CO2 emissions from
fossil fuels. Our stake in the salvation of
these forests is sufficiently large that we
should be more than willing to help
provide financial incentives—incentives
that will be necessary if countries of the
To guide and speed the
application of
solution-oriented technologies
will require policy action in
the form of both economic
incentives and direct
regulation.
tropics are to turn their attention to what
often appears to be a low priority or
even a threat to development and
sovereignty. I suggest that we go far
beyond the debt-for-nature swaps under
way today and consider a global bargain
as part of this international convention.
This bargain would involve the easing
and forgiving of international debts in
exchange for forest conservation. Of the
top 17 most heavily indebted countries,
12 are destroying their tropical forests at
extraordinarily rapid rates, contributing
to the world's annual loss of 27 million
acres.
And fourth, we need international
agreement on the protocol now being
developed to limit NOX emissions.
Unless capped, increasing NOX
emissions will lead to increasing ozone
concentrations, and ozone is a
greenhouse gas as well as a source of
urban and rural air pollution.
My concern about nuclear power, as
things stand today, is that it probably
will not, in the end, provide a major
part of the answer to global warming. Its
public acceptability is too low and its
price is too high. If we try to solve the
greenhouse problem by cramming
nuclear power down the throats of an
unwilling public and unwilling
investors, we will be setting the stage
for prolonged confrontation and
stalemate. Moreover, I believe there are
safer and cheaper alternatives for the
short run, including the vast potential
for efficiency gains in how we generate
and use electricity.
In all these areas, in seeking these
treaties and in setting an international
example by acting on our own, U.S.
leadership and EPA leadership could
not be more important. The world is not
exactly waiting on our leadership, but
neither will it get very far without us.
Let rne conclude with a word about
why I am optimistic that the world can
indeed be saved. This address, you have
doubtless noted, reflects a deep
appreciation of the importance of
economic and technological forces in
the modern world. One reason for
optimism is that science and technology
are presenting us with answers. We are
in the midst of a revolution in earth
science and a revolution in industrial
and agricultural technology, both with
huge potentials in the areas we have
been reviewing.
But if solutions are found, they will
come from another realm as well, from
the hopes and fears of people, from
their aspirations for their children and
their wonder at the natural world, from
their own self-respect and their dogged
insistence that some things that seem
very wrong are just that. People
everywhere are offended by pollution.
They sense intuitively that we have
pressed beyond limits we should not
have exceeded. They want to clean up
the world, make it a better place, be
good trustees of the Earth for future
generations. With Thoreau, they know
that heaven is under our feet as well as
over our heads. Politicians around the
globe are increasingly hearing the
demand that things be set right. And
that is very good news indeed, a
fSpeth is President of the WorJd
Resources Institute. This article is an
excerpt from a speech Speth gave at
EPA in June 1988.)
EPA JOURNAL
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Appointments
Erich W. Bretthaunr Louise P. Wisp
Glenn I,, t'nterberser Craig B. Annear
Michael M. Stdhl
Erich W. Bretthauer has
been appointed Acting
Assistant Administrator for
Research and Development,
succeeding Vaun A. Newill.
Bretthauer had been Acting
Deputy Assistant
Administrator since
September 1987.
A commissioned officer in
the U.S. Public Health
Service, Bretthauer began his
government career in the
Southwestern Radiological
Health Service Laboratory,
then a U.S. Public Health
Service laboratory in Las
Vegas, Nevada, in 1962, after
obtaining his Master of
Science degree in Chemistry
from the University of
Nevada-Reno.
He held progressively
senior positions at the
Laboratory, primarily in the
areas of analytical chemistry
and environmental
monitoring. In 1979, he
directed the EPA's emergency
radiological monitoring
program after the accident at
Three Mile Island. After
completing a Congressional
Fellowship to the U.S. Senate
Committee on Environment
and Public Works in 1982, he
was named Director of the
Office of Environmental
Processes and Effects
Research in Washington. In
1985, he returned to Las
Vegas as Director of the
Environmental Monitoring
Systems Laboratory.
Louise P. Wise has been
appointed Deputy Director in
the Office of Marine and
Estuarine Protection. Prior to
joining the Office of Water in
October 1988, she was a
special assistant to the
Administrator for RCRA and
Superfund issues.
JANUARY/FEBRUARY
Wise joined the EPA in
1984. Before coming to the
Agency she was a law clerk
in the office of Federal
District Court Judge John H.
Pratt and practiced law for
several years with the law
firm of McKenna, Conner and
Cuneo.
At EPA, Wise has been
RCRA attorney advisor in the
Office of General Counsel, a
program analyst in the Office
of the Assistant
Administrator for Solid
Waste and Emergency
Response, Director of the
Policy and Standards
Division in the Office of
Underground Storage Tanks,
as well as holding her most
recent post in the
Administrator's office.
She is the author of
numerous environmental
publications and a frequent
lecturer, and has earned two
EPA Gold Medals for
Exceptional Service. She
earned her Doctor of
Jurisprudence from the
Georgetown University Law
Center and a bachelor's
degree from Vanderbilt
University.
Glenn L. Unterberger is the
new Associate Enforcement
Counsel for Waste in the
Office of Enforcement and
Compliance Monitoring. The
11-year EPA veteran joined
the Agency as a law clerk for
the Assistant Administrator
for Enforcement after earning
his Doctorate in
Jurisprudence at the
Georgetown University Law
Center in 1977.
Unterberger advanced to
general attorney the
following year. Subsequently,
he held supervisory attorney
and advisory attorney
positions in the Office of the
AA for Enforcement, the
Mobile Source Enforcement
Division, and as branch chief
and then director of the
Office of Legal Enforcement
Policy before becoming
Associate Enforcement
Counsel in November 1984.
In the fall of 1988 he
advanced to his present
position.
He earned his Bachelor of
Arts degree at the University
of Pennsylvania and is the
recipient of EPA Gold and
Bronze Medals for
Exceptional Service.
Craig B. Annear has been
named Associate General
Counsel for Grants, Contracts,
and General Law in the Office
of General Counsel (OGC).
A veteran federal attorney,
Annear joined the
government in 1973 as a
lawyer with the Federal
Trade Commission. In
mid-1975 he became an
Attorney-Advisor in the
Department of Housing and
Urban Development. He
moved to the Federal
Emergency Management
Agency four years later as an
Associate General Counsel
serving there until October
1983. For two months in
1983 he was detailed to EPA
as a Special Assistant to the
Acting Deputy Administrator
and the Acting Assistant
Administrator for Solid
Waste and Emergency
Response.
Upon joining EPA
permanently later that year,
Annear became Associate
General Counsel in the
Inspector General Division of
OGC]. He graduated from
Cornell University with a
bachelor's degree in
Government, and earned his
law degree from the
University of Michigan Law
School.
Michael M. Stahl has been
named Director of the TSCA
Assistance Office (TAO) in
the Office of Toxic
Substances (OTS). He had
been Acting Director since
February 1988. TAO is
responsible for public liaison
and technical assistance
efforts for EPA's toxic
substances programs.
Stahl joined the federal
government in mid-1980 as a
Presidential Management
Intern, after serving as a
Research Assistant in the
Office of the Missouri State
Senate Majority Floor Leader.
He began his federal career at
the Consumer Product Safety
Commission, where he
served as a Special Assistant
to the Executive Director. In
1983 he moved to EPA's
Office of Administration and
then to EPA's Office of
Human Resources
Management.
Stahl has worked in EPA's
Asbestos in Schools program
since 1984. He was
responsible for
implementation of the
Asbestos School Ha/ard
Abatement Act of 1984 and
the Asbestos Hazard
Emergency Response Act of
1986. He was appointed
Acting Director of tin:
Asbestos Action Program in
November 1986, and was
named Chief of the Hazard
Abatement Assistance Branch
when the asbestos program
was moved to OTS in May of
1987. He has received EPA
Bronze and Gold Medals for
his work in the asbestos
program.
Stahl is a graduate of the
University of Missouri where
he earned a Master of Public
Administration degree in
May 1980. n
51
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Update
A review of recent major Kl'A activities and developments in the pollution control program areas
AIR
EPA, CSPC Publish Indoor
Air Quality Guide
HP A. in conjunction with the
Consumer Product Safety
Commission, has issued The
Inside Sfory, (J Guide to
Indoor Air Quality. Intended
for homeowners and renters,
the guide is filled with the
latest scientific information
about sources of indoor air
pollution, the health risks it
poses, and what steps the
homeowner or apartment
dweller can take to minimize
or eliminate pollution
sources.
The Agency has also
published a Directory of
State Indoor Air Contacts.
Copies of the publications an:
available from Kl'A Regional
Offices or the Public
Information Center, EPA,
Washington. DC 20460.
New CFC, Halon Production
Limits
New EPA Clean Air Act
regulations limiting domestic
production and use of
ozone-depleting
chlorofluorocarbons (CF'Cs)
and halons fulfill the U.S.
commitment under the
Montreal Protocol which
went into effect January 1,
1989. The rule allocates
quotas to firms that produced
or consumed CFCs and
halons in 1980, freezing
manufacturing and
consumption at 1986 levels.
with further reductions to
come in 1993 and 199H.
Halon levels are also limited.
U.S. Agrees To International
Nitrogen Oxide Protocol
EPA Administrator Lee M.
Thomas, representing the
I Inited States, signed the
Nitrogen Oxides Protocol in
Sophia, Bulgaria. The
Protocol provides for a freeze
on NO emissions,
technology-based standards
for new sources, and research
on a long-term strategy that
may establish future control
levels.
National Radon
Advisory
U.S. Public Health Service
Assistant Surgeon General
Vernon J. Houk and EPA
Administrator Lee M.
Thomas have issued a
national advisory urging the
testing of most American
homes for the presence of
radon. EPA estimates that
over 3 million houses in 17
states tested so far have
radon levels above Agency
guidance levels, and
recommends that families
living in detached houses,
mobile homes with
permanent foundations, or in
basement or first-floor
apartments or townhouses or
row houses should have the
radon testing done.
EMERGENCY""
R E_SPO NSE
National Incident
Coordination Team
The Office of Solid
Waste has established a
high-level intra-Agency
National Incident
Coordination Team (NICT) to
coordinate Agency-wide
involvement in major
environmental disaster
situations. The team is
composed of representatives
of all Assistant, Associate,
and Regional Administrators.
Its primary goal is to
enhance EPA's capability to
deal with issues and
situations which historically
go beyond existing
emergency response
mechanisms. Incidents which
would activate the team will
require the awareness and
cooperation of Agency staff at
all levels. Anyone with
needed expertise can be
called upon to support the
activities involved, with NICT
providing coordination and
support and assisting the
Agency as it works with
other federal and state
agencies to deal with
extraordinary situations.
WATER
Underground Storage Tanks
EPA has issued
comprehensive and stringent
requirements for nearly two
million underground storage
tanks, half of which are used
for gasoline at service
stations. The new rules
require owners and operators
of such tanks containing
petroleum products or certain
hazardous chemicals to
notify authorities when a
leak occurs and to clean up
the contamination. Financial
standards will be announced
requiring maintenance of an
ability to handle a cleanup
and compensate third parties
for damages. Proper
installation certification is
also required.
RECENT FEDERAL
LEGISLATION
Federal Insecticide,
Fungicide, and Rodenticide
Act (FIFRAj Amendments of
1988 strengthen EPA's
authority in several major
areas. The amendments
require a substantial
acceleration of the pesticide
reregistration process and
authorize collection of fees to
support reregistration
activities. They also change
EPA's responsibilities and
funding requirements for the
storage and disposal of
suspended and cancelled
pesticides and the
indemnification of holders of
remaining stocks of such
pesticides. Criminal penalties
are increased for registrants,
applicants for registration, or
other pesticide producers
who knowingly violate the
pesticide law; submission of
false test data, violating
suspension or cancellation
orders, and failure to submit
required records or allow
inspection are unlawful.
Lead Contamination
Control Act of 1988 amends
the Safe Drinking Water Act
to deal with the recall of
lead-lined drinking water
coolers. EPA is required to
publish a list of all brands
and models which are not
lead-free or which have
lead-lined tanks. Manufacture
and sale of such products in
interstate commerce is
forbidden, and the Consumer
Product Safety Commission
is required to order
manufacturers and importers
of such coolers to repair,
replace, or recall them and to
provide a refund for the
coolers within one year after
enactment.
Asbestos Information Act
of 1988 requires asbestos
product manufacturers to
submit to EPA information
on the types or classes of
products, the years of
manufacture, and other
information identifying the
characteristics of their
asbestos-containing products.
EPA must publish the
information. The law is
intended to facilitate early
identification of
manufacturers or processors
of particular types of asbestos
or asbestos-containing
products to help reduce the
time and costs involved in
naming parties as defendants
in asbestos-related litigation.
Ocean Dumping Ban Act of
1988 prohibits all municipal
sewage sludge and industrial
waste dumping into the
ocean after December 31,
1991. The law also requires
permits for dumping and a
plan for terminating
dumping, beginning 270 days
after enactment. Other
provisions include a ban on
disposal of potentially
infectious medical waste into
ocean waters by a "public
vessel"; listing of
Massachusetts Bay,
Barataria-Terrebone Estuary
Complex, Louisiana, Indian
River Lagoon, Florida, and
Peconic Bay, New York, for
priority consideration for
inclusion in the National
Estuary Program; and, under
the Shore Protection Act of
1988, a prohibition against
transportation of municipal
or commercial waste within
coastal waters by a vessel
without a permit and
adequate identification, a
52
EPA JOURNAL
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The Kansas City Star. Friday, March t5, 1988
i MS? THE: ozotc LAYER...."
®1988, Los Angeles Times Syndicate.
Reprinted with permission.
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