United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of
Environmental Processes
and Effects Research
Washington DC 20460
EPA600JS- 79-010
September 1979
Research and Development
Resources and
Pollution Control
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EPA 600/5-79-010
September 1979
RESOURCES AND POLLUTION CONTROL
Demonstration
of a
Comprehensive Assessment
Contracts 68-01-2816
68-01-2825
68-01-2826
68-01-2828
Project Officer
Roger D. Shull
Office of Environmental Processes and Effects Research
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C. 20460
OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES AND EFFECTS RESEARCH
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20*60
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Research and
Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, • and
approved for publication. Approval does not signify that
the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention
of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement
or recommendation for use.
ii
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FOREWORD
The purpose of this project was to develop and demonstrate a
methodology for simultaneously projecting future pollution
control costs for all economic activities subject to Federal
regulations, which utilized consistent assumptions relating
to official Federal projections of the state of the Nation's
economy. To assure valid simulation of the impacts of the
regulations, the projection model was developed with a scale
of sectoral detail that aliowed analysis of each industry-
specific effluent or emission regulation in effect at the
time (nearly 400 sectors). Further, the secondary effects
of pollution control expenditures on the economy were
simulated.
The body of this report demonstrates the utility of the
methodology for the intended analyses. However, eVen though
computerized, the system and associated editorial resources
were not capable (within reasonable cost and manpower
constraints) of producing a comprehensive report that, at
any point, was current with all regulations. During the
analysis, text drafting, and review periods, a continuous
stream of administrative, judicial and legislative actions
occurred, which significantly affected the original
underlying regulatory and control options which were used to
structure the study. In addition, as time progressed, more
detailed economic studies of particular industries in many
instances led to more precise estimates than there were
available during the original data collection phase of the
report.
Repeated attempts to update various sections in order to
accommodate new data and legislative action resulted in
publication postponements, and the flow of regulatory
changes has not subsided. Consequently, it became necessary
to impose a cutoff date on the incorporation of new data, in
order to release the report so that its significant
contribution to analytical methodology could be made public.
Therefore, the reader is put on notice that in many
instances the cost estimates in this report do not reflect
the most current data available. The report makes available
to the public the state-of-the-art methodology for producing
such estimates and gives an indication of the best cost
estimates as they were made at one point in time.
iii
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ABSTRACT
The purpose of this project was to develop and demonstrate a methodology for
simultaneously projecting future pollution control costs for ail economic activities
subject to Federal regulations, which utilized consistent assumptions relating to official
Federal projections of the state of the Nation's economy. To assure valid simulation
of the impacts of the regulations, the projection model was developed with a scale
of sectoral detail that allowed analysis of each industry-specific effluent or
emission regulation in effect at the time (nearly ^00 sectors). Further, the
secondary effects of pollution control expenditures on the economy were simulated.
This report demonstrates the utility of the methodology for the intended analyses.
IV
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UNCERTAINTIES
Whenever a new estimate of national pollution control costs
is produced, there is a natural tendency to compare it with
related estimates developed by other parties. Such efforts
frequently show considerable discrepencies between estimates
for ostensibly the same cost categories. Such discrepencies
are, in fact, to be expected, due to the vast number of
conditions which must be specified to assure that even the
category of cost analysis is identical between two different
estimates.
Probably the most difficult problem in preparing a
comprehensive assessment of this nature, in this particular
period of the national environmental programs, is keeping
the cost estimates current with respect to the rapidly
changing regulation situation. Keeping the economic data
base current in the face of the frequent changes in
regulations due to legislative, administrative, and judicial
decisions is both expensive and time-consuming. Because of
resource constraints, the data in this report are consistent
with regulations existing in early 1976. Thus, any economic
studies of the impact of regulations proposed, promulgated,
remanded, or suspended after early 1976 may be at variance
with values presented herein, with the exception of
automotive emission control costs which have been revised to
reflect the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977. Changes in
regulatory emission or effluent requirements frequently
result in little or no change in cost estimates, however,
since the changes usually relate to expected performance of
accepted categories of technology rather than changes in the
technology itself.
For each industrial category, assumptions must be made as to
what types of technology will be generally applied to
achieve the effluent or emission requirements. Estimates
must then be made for the variation of capital and operation
and maintenance costs with respect to age, size, and
location of the many plants within the industrial category.
This area is probably the greatest source of disagreement in
the field of pollution control cost estimating.
Economic variables are another cause of discrepancies;
dollar value deflators, interest rates, equipment lifetimes,
wage rates, energy and material costs, economic growth
rates, capital availability, and other factors must all be
estimated and projected into the future to produce an
estimate of pollution control costs over a period of years.
V
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The level of detail of data and calculations may also cause
variability in estimates for the same category. Agency
resources do not permit exhaustive investigations of all
plants in any particular industrial category. Hence,
estimates must be made by extrapolating from a small set of
data obtained from "typical" facilities. For example, most
estimates of industrial control expenditures in this report
are based on only two to four plant size categories. For a
few important industrial categories where this general
estimation procedure was considered insufficient,
significant resources were expended on special detailed
environmental cost analyses. Results of these studies were
sometimes at variance with the more approximate estimates,
as discussed in Sections Two and Three.
In addition, the particular purpose of the estimates may not
be exactly the same. The estimates in this report represent
the expenditures which would probably be incurred if all
parties met the regulations on schedule by installing an
assumed particular type of equipment. The resulting
forecasts are thus unrealistic to the extent that polluting
activities fail to meet all requirements on schedule.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of
Commerce conducts periodic surveys of industries to estimate
actual pollution control expenditures. These BEA estimates
are nearly twice as high as those reported herein in some
industrial categories and less than one-fifth these
estimates in others. These differences can be attributed to
variations in industry category definition, slower or faster
equipment installation schedules, different judgements of
the amount of industrial expenditures for process
modification which can be properly attributed to pollution
reduction, and the probable statistical errors in BEA's
industrial questionnaire sampling process. Chapter 3 in
Section 1 discusses the impact that process modifications
can have on pollution reduction and the difficulties
involved in apportioning costs between pollution control and
production cost accounts.
The closest parallel to the estimates in this report are the
estimates for the cost of water pollution control recently
prepared by the National Commission on Water Quality. The
Commission's estimates involve the same effluent
limitations, and many of the same economic assumptions and
industrial category definitions. Some of the industrial
category cost estimates compare very closely, but there are
still categories which differ significantly. These
differences are attributed primarily to (1) uncertainties in
plant inventories in those industries characterized by large
numbers of small plants, (2) differences in professional
VI
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judgement on what process would most likely be applied to
achieve the required effluent quality, (3) differences in
industrial growth rates and plant size trends over the
decade, and (4) different assumptions about the current
status of pollution control in the industries (capital-in-
pi ace,).
To summarize, variations in estimates of national activities
of this level of complexity are to be expected, but detailed
examination of the data and calculation procedures can
usually explain the reasons for the variations. The general
economic assumptions used in this report are explicitly
stated in Sections One and Four of the report, and industry
descriptions and pollution control process descriptions are
described in considerable detail in Sections Two and Three.
VII
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section
FOREWORD
ABSTRACT
UNCERTAINTIES
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
SECTION I—OVERVIEW
Chapter 1—Introduction 1-1
Problem Overview 1-2
Assumptions 1-4
Economic Assumptions 1-4
Energy Assumptions 1-4
Air Compliance Assumptions 1-6
Water Compliance Assumptions 1-7
Pollution Control Costs: Definitions and
Calculation Methods 1-10
Direct Costs 1-10
Investment Costs 1-10
Operation and Maintenance Costs 1-iO
Total Annual Costs 1-11
Costing Methodology 1-11
Government Program Expenditure 1-13
Air Program Costs 1-14
Water Program Costs 1-14
Indirect Costs 1-15
Comprehensive Assessment 1-15
Alternative Futures 1-16
Chapter 2—The Benefits of Pollution control
Programs 1-19
Definition of Benefits 1-19
Physical and Economic Damage Functions 1-21
Population at Risk 1-26
Problems of Measurement 1-34
Chapter 3—Pollution Control Cost Reduction
Through Process Change 1-37
Introduction 1-^37
Impact of Process Change Upon the Cost of a
Clean Environment 1-37
Effect of Environmental Standards on the
Rate of Process Change 1-38
Types of Process Change 1-41
vni
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Section
Materials Changes
Process Modifications
Costing Methodology
Costing at the Unit Level
End-of-Pipe Costs
Allocation of Reference costs
Waste Reduction and Revised Abatement Costs
Economic and Environmental Motivations for
Process Change and the Allocation of Cost Effects
Costing at the Industry Level
industry Survey
Representative industry Evaluations
Copper
Process Changes
Industry Effects
Aluminum
Process Changes
Industry-wide Cost Reduciton
Pulp and Paper Industry
Process Changes
Industry-wide Cost Reduction
Petroleum Refining
Process Changes
Industry-wide Cost Effects
Inorganic Chemicals
Sodium Chloride
Sodium Carbonate
Titanium Dioxide
Chlorine
Industry-wide Cost Reduction
Generalizations
Range of Pollution Control Savings
Variations Within Process Change Types
Materials Changes
Process Modifications
Process Substitutions
Summary
J-X
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Section Page
II SECTION II—THE ECONOMICS OF AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
Chapter 1—Summary 2-1
Government Expenditures 2-5
Transportation Expenditures 2-7
Industrial Expenditures 2-8
Comparison of Cost Estimates to the Last
Cost of Clean Air Report 2-11
Chapter 1—Benefits of Controlling Air Pollution 2-16
Health Damages 2-16
Nature and Effects of Air Pollution
Damage to Health 2-16
Survey of Source Studies 2-17
Aesthetic Damages 2-22
Nature and Effects of Air Pollution
Damage to Aesthetics ' 2-22
Survey of Source Studies 2-23
vegetation Damages 2-25
Nature and Effects of Air Pollution
Damage to vegetation 2-25
Survey of Source Studies 2-26
Materials Damages 2-30
Nature and Effects of Air Pollution
Damage to Materials 2-30
Survey of Source Studies 2-30
More Elusive Damages 2-33
Chapter 3—The Costs of Controlling Air pollution 2-40
Introduction 2-40
Government Expenditures for Air Pollution Control 2-41
Program Costs 2-41
Federal Program Costs 2-43
Expenditures by Other Federal Agencies 2-46
Control of Emissions from Stationary Sources 2-46
Classifications of Industrial Sources 2-47
Costs Related to Required Reduction in Air
Emissions 2-51
Reductions in Emissions Prior to the Clean
Air Act 2-52
Reductions in Air Emissions Required by the
Clean Air Act 2-52
Coal Cleaning Industry 2-62
Coal Gasification Industry 2-68
Natural Gas industry 2-73
Feed Mills Industry 2-76
Kraft Pulp Industry 2-79
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Section Page
Neutral Sulfite Semichemical Paper industry 2-86
Printing Industry 2-89
Chlor-Alkalai Mercury Cells Industry 2-92
Nitric Acid industry 2-96
Paint Manufacturing industry 2-99
Phosphate Fertilizer Industry 2-102
Non-Fertilizer Phosphorus Industry 2-107
Sulfuric Acid Industry 2-111
Petrochemicals Industry 2-114
Petroleum Industry 2-120
Ferroalloy Industry 2-130
iron and Steel Industries 2-133
iron Foundries Industry 2-143
Steel Foundries industry 2-145
Primary Aluminum Industry 2-148
Secondary Aluminum Industry 2-152
Primary Copper Industry 2-155
Secondary Brass and Bronze industry 2-160
Primary Lead Industry 2-163
Secondary Lead Industry 2-166
Primary Zinc Industry 2-169
Secondary Zinc Industry 2-173
Asbestos Industry 2-177
Asphalt Concrete Processing Industry 2-180
Cement Industry 2-184
Lime industry 2-188
Structural Clay Products Industry 2-191
Surface Coatings Industry 2-194
Steam Electric Power Plants 2-199
Solid Waste Disposal 2-211
Municipal Incinerators 2-211
On-Site Incinerators (Commercial and
industrial) 2-212
Open Burning and Dumps 2-213
Sewage Sludge Industry 2-217
Grain Handling Industry 2-220
Dry Cleaning Industry 2-224
Industrial and Commercial Heating 2-227
Chapter 4—Mobile Source Pollution Control
Mobile Source Emission Controls 2-233
Introduction 2-233
Review of Recent Factors Affecting, Mobile Sources 2-233
Light-Duty Vehicle Controls 2-234
Emission Standards 2-234
Passenger Cars 2-238
Fuel Consumption Penalties 2-243
Light-Duty Trucks 2-246
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Section
Fuel Cost Increases 2-246
Aggregate National costs for Light-Duty
vehicle Emissions Controls 2-247
Heavy-Duty vehicle Controls 2-254
Emission Standards 2-254
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engine Controls 2-255
Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Controls 2-258
Aircraft Emission Controls 2-258
Di-scussion of Unregulated Mobile Source Emission 2-261
Transportation Control Plans 2-266
Summary 2-266
Introduction 2-267
Overall Strategies. 2-270
Measures that Reduce Emissions Per Vehicle Miles 2-270
inspection and Maintenance Programs 2-270
Retrofit Control Programs 2-274
Service Station Vapor Controls 2-276
Measures that Reduce Total Vehicle Miles
Travelled 2-279
The Need for VMT Reductions 2-279
Strategies to Reduce VMT 2-282
Transportation Control Measures to Reduce VMT 2-286
Additional VMT Reduction Measures 2-289
Costs -of Transportation Control Plans 2-289
inspection and Maintenance Programs 2-292
Retrofit Programs 2-296
Service Station Vapor Controls 2-298
Summary Costs 2-299
Cdst of implementing Measures tht Reduce VMT 2-303
III SECTION III-—THE ECONOMICS OF WATER POLLUTION CONTROL
Chapter 1—Summary 3-1
Chapter 2—The Benefits of Controlling Water
Pollution 3-11
Health Damages 3-13
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damage to Health 3-13
Survey of Source Studies 3-13
Outdoor Recreation Damages 3-13
Nature and Effects of Water-pollution
Damages to Recreation 3-13
Survey of Source Studies 3-14
Aesthetic' and Ecological Damages 3-16
Xll
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Section Page
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution Damages
on Aesthetic and Ecological values 3-16
Survey of Source Studies 3-16
Production Damages 3-17
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damage to Production 3-17
Survey fo Source Studies 3-18
Property value Damages 3-20
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution Damages
as Reflected in Property Values 3-20
Survey of Source Studies 3-20
Chapter 3—The Costs of Controlling Water Pollution
Introduction 3-27
Scope 3-27
Assumptions 3-28
Federal Compliance Assumptions 3-28
Wastewater Treatment Systems 3-33
Stages of Treatment • 3-37
Nonpoint Source water Pollution Control 3-38
Government Expenditures for Water Pollution Control 3-39
Program Costs 3-39
Federal Program Costs 3-41
Assistance Programs 3-41
Regulatory Programs 3-42
State Program Costs 3-45
State Role 3-45
Aggregate State Program Expenditures 3-46
Expenditures by Other Federal Agencies 3-46
Municipal control Costs 3-47
Introduction 3-47
Defining and Measuring Need 3-47
Defining Cost 3-48
Status of Public Sewerage 3-49
Needs Survey Summary 3-54
Categories of Need 3-54
Results of the Survey 3-55
Projected National Survey 3-57
Time Phasing and Annualization of Costs 3-62
Industrial Con.trol Costs 3-63
Introduction 3-63
Methodology 3-63
Cost Concepts 3-63
Modeling an Industry 3-64
Industry Cost Summaries 3-65
Feedlots Industry 3-68
Beet Sugar industry 3-75
Cane Sugar Refining Industry 3-81
X1J.1
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Section
Dairy Processing industry 3-86
Fruits and vegetables Industry 3-92
Grain Milling Industry 3-98
Meat Processing Industry 3-105
Seafood Processing Industry 3-112
Leather Tanning and Finishing Industry 3-120
Textiles Industry . 3-126
Builders Paper and Roofing Felt Industry 3-133
Pulp~, Paper, and Paperboard Industry 3-140
Plywood, Hardboard.and Wood Preserving Industry 3-150
inorganic Chemicals Industry 3-156
Fertilizer Chemicals Industry 3-172
Organic Chemicals Industry 3-180
Phosphate Manufacturing Industry 3-191
Plastics and Synthetics Industry 3-199
Petroleum Refining Industry 3-205
Rubber Processing industry 3-213
Ferroalloy Industry 3-223
Iron and Steel Industry 3-228
Bauxite-Refining Industry 3-239
Primary Aluminum Smelting industry 3-244
Secondary Aluminum Smelting industry 3-251
Primary Copper Industry 3-254
Primary Lead Industry 3-264
Primary Zinc Industry 3-269
Asbestos Manufacturing Industry 3-274
Cement -Industry 3-281
Insulation Fiberglass Industry 3-286
Flat Glass industry 3-291
Pressed and Blown Glass Industry 3-297
Electroplating 3-303
Steam Electric Power Industry 3-310
Soap and Detergent Industry 3-317
IV SECTION IV—A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF POLLUTION
CONTROL: IMPACT MEASUREMENT UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
Chapter 1—impact Estimation Using the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) 4-2
Chapter 2—Scenario Assumptions 4-4
Chapter 3—Macro-Analysis Results 4-8
The Reference Scenario 4-10
Comparison of the Reference and Reference Abatement
Scenarios 4-20
xiv
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Section
Comparative Analysis for the Low Productivity
Scenarios 4-32
Comparative Analysis for the Energy Conservation
Scenarios 4-49
Chapter 4—Sectoral Analyses Results 4-66
Estimating the Reduction in Air Residual Generation 4-66
Estimating the -Reduciton in Water Residual Generation 4-78
Estimating the Cost of Pollution Control 4-86
Industry Investment 4-90
Chapter 5-Estimating Pollution Control Costs 4-100
Comparison of SEAS Investment Estimates for
Air Pollution with Estimates of BEA 4-100
Estimating Significant Environmental Control Costs 4-101
Estimating Air and Water Costs for
industrial Sectors 4-102
Estimating Air Costs for Mobil Sources 4-102
Estimating Water Costs for Municipal Treatment 4-103
Estimating Air and Water Abatement Costs to
Government 4-104
Estimating Pollution Control Cost Impacts 4-105
Capital and O&M Impacts 4-106
Employment impacts 4-109
Energy Impacts 4-112
Ranking of Sectors by Degree of Economic Change 4-113
The Dynamic Nature of Total Pollution Control
Expenditures 4-120
Appendix A THE SEAS SYSTEM
A-l
The Interindustry Economic Forecasting Mode (iNFORDM) A-4
The Sector Disaggregation Model (INSIDE) A-7
The Abatement Cost and Feedback Model-(ABATE) A-8
The Relative Commodity Price Mode (PRICES) A-12
The Industrial Environmental Residuals Model
(RESGEN) A-13
The Transportation Models (PTRANS and FTRANS) A-15
The Energy Use Model (ENERGY) A-16
The Stocks Reserves and Prices Model (STOCKS) A-16
The Solid Waste and Recycling Model (SOLRECYC) A-16
The Summary Report Generators (POSTCOMP,
INFRPT, and CLEANSUM) A-17
Appendix B SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
B-l
XV
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Section Page
Reference Scenario B-l
Reference Abatement Scenario B-5
Low Productivity Scenarios B-7
Energy Conservation Scenarios B-8
Appendix C IMPACT OF INCREASED FEDERAL GRANTS FOR MUNICIPAL
WASTEWATER TREATMENT C-l
Appendix D ESTIMATING THE COST FOR INDUSTRIES TO CONTROL POLLUTION
Cost Estimation Methodology D-l
Industrial Segments: Model Plants, Unit Costs and
Growth D-2
xvi
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Section Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Preparation of this combined air and water pollution control
cost analysis was an extensive effort made possible only
through coordination of the hard work of many different
dedicated individuals. The final product is the result of
expert analysts in EPA and the private sector. EPA
personnel and contractor personnel responsible for various
aspects of the report are listed below:
OVERALL REPORT MANAGEMENT,
INTEGRATION, AND REVIEW
EPA: Peter House, Roger Don Shull
Control Data Corporation: Rafael Ubico, Michael Kranias,
Cheryl Herrin, Thomas Germack, Bradford Wing
Consultants: Matthew Barrett (Analytic Products Inc.),
Lyman Clark (CONSAD Corporation), Jeffrey Krischer
(Johns Hopkins University)
WATER POLLUTION CONTROL
COST ANALYSIS
EPA: Donald H. Lewis, Richard K. Schaefer
CONSAD Corporation: Donald McCartney, Samuel Hadeed,
Forrest Arnold, William Carlson
Consultants: Richard Ralph Luken (Private Consultant)
vanderbilt University: Andrew Edwards
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
COST ANALYSIS
EPA: Philip D. Patterson, Willard Smith, Tom Alexander
Battelle Columbus Laboratories: Philip R. Beltz, Gabor
Kovacs, Ted Thomas
COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
EPA: Peter House, Edward Williams, Philip Patterson,
Samuel Ratick, Richard K. Schaefer, Richard H. Ball
Control Data Corporation: Rafael Ubico, Cheryl Herrin,
Kenneth Thompson, B. Scott Miller, Bradford Wing
International Research and Technology Corporation: Marc
Narkus-Kramer, Richard Meyer
xvn
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Section
CONSAD Corporation: Ronald Adonolfi
PROCESS CHAHGE ANALYSIS
EPA: Michael Hay
International Research and Technology Corporation; James
Saxton, Richard Meyer, Thomas Jones, Robert Cape 11
POLLUTION CONTROL BENEFIT
ANALYSIS
EPA: Fred Abel, Thomas Waddell, Dennis P. Tihansky
Enviro-Control, Incorporated: Alex Hershaft, Theodore
Heintz, Jr., Gerald Horak
POPULATION-AT-RISK STUDY
EPA: Fred Abel, Thomas Waddell
Enviro-Control, incorporated: Steve Takacs, G. Bradford
Shea
PRODOCTIOH COMPOSITIOS
Control Data Corporation: Cathy Blank, Donna Cloutier,
Linda Luehrs, Donna Selby, Dav Davisson
XVlil
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Section One
OVERVIEW
Chapter 1
This report begins with an overview section which presents a
discussion of those issues common to the study of both air
and water pollution control. The next two sections present
the costs of pollution control for air and water,
respectively, together with estimates of the reduction in
environmental pollution effected by the controls. The
fourth and final section presents an analysis of the
economic impacts and tradeoffs associated with these costs.
Particular emphasis is placed on illustrating how these
impacts and tradeoffs might change under alternative sets of
assumptions about future economic activity and energy
conservation policies.
Included in the overview (Section one) is a presentation of
the basic assumptions and general approach taken in the
development of control costs and in the analysis of the
consequent impacts of these costs. This is followed by a
discussion of the concept of benefits as applied to the
economic analysis of pollution control. Finallyf the
economic advantages of controlling pollution through process
changes are presented. Five major industries are used as
examples in this analysis: Copper, Aluminum, Pulp and
Paper, Petroleum Refining, and Inorganic Chemicals.
Both Sections Two and Three begin with a brief summary
followed by a discussion of the estimated types of damages
resulting from pollution. In Section Two, the cost of
controlling air pollution is presented in terms of
government program expenditures, industry and utility
control costs, and transportation control costs. Section
Three, on the cost of controlling water pollution, also
includes a presentation of government program expenditures,
followed by municipal and industrial cost estimates.
A comparative analysis approach is taken in Section Four to
examine the relative impact of pollution control under
alternative futures or scenarios. included in this
presentation is an examination of the gains and losses
experienced by consumers and by individual industries which
spend and/or receive funds for pollution abatement.
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Wherever possible, the national pollution abatement costs,
the economic impacts and tradeoffs, and the associated
environmental.changes that have been estimated and presented
in this report are those that would not have occurred
without Federal legislation. Specifically, it is assumed
that,, in the absence of the two laws, the amount of
pollution discharged per unit of production (or per person
for sewage, or per mile for vehicles) would have remained
the same as in 1971. A pre-legislation baseline, defined in
terms of 1971 pollution control technology levels, is thus
established, and all costs; impacts, tradeoffs, and
environmental changes are measured as.differences from that
baseline.
Problem Overview
Both the comprehensive assessment of pollution control and
also the industry-by-industry estimates of pollution control
expenditures and pollution reduction are presented at the
national level. Although more detailed information is
provided in some instances, this .information is presented
primarily to enhance an understanding of the basis
established for the national aggregated estimates.
Estimating the control costs and the quantities of
pollutants produced on a national basis is a complicated
process. Not only are there a large number of pollution
sources, but each source could emit a number -of pollutants
that can be controlled separately or Jointly by several
alternative control technologies. Conversely, each specific
pollutant can be traced to a considerable number of
different sources. The costs of control are most
conveniently estimated by source, even though they will
usually cover more than one pollutant for each source. On
the other hand, levels of pollution are more easily examined
by pollutant; these levels are estimated by aggregating
emissions by pollutant across all sources of that pollutant.
A general overview of the relationships among sample
sources, pollutants, effects, and control technologies is
presented in Table 1. Discussions of these, relationships
are found for each industry affected by Federal pollution
control legislation in Sections Two and Three of this
report.
1-2
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Table 1.
Overview of Sample Pollution Control Relationships
Medium
A1r
i
u>
Source
Automobi1es
Industry
Sulfuric Acid
Petroleum
Pollutant
NOx, HC, CO
Electric Uti1ities SOx
Particulates
SOx
HC
Effects
Control Technology
Smog, Lung Damage Engine Modification,
Catalysts
Respiratory Problems Scrubbers, Fuel
Swi tching
Soiling, Reduced Electrostatic
Visibility Precipitators, Filters
Respiratory Problems Absorption
Smog Floating Roof Tanks
Water Municipal Sewers
Indus try
BOD
Suspended Sol Ids
Pathogens
BOD
Suspended Sol Ids
Dissolved Solids
Acids
Toxics
Dissolved Oxygen Oxidation, Adsorption
Materials, F1sh Damage Sedimentation, Filtration
Infection Disinfection
Dissolved Oxygen Oxidation, Adsorption
Materials, Fish Damage Sedimentation, Filtration
Materials Damage Ion Exchange
Materials Damage Neutralization
Poisoning Adsorption
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Assumptions
The Federal pollution control legislation ultimately
requires industries, consumers (transportation vehicles),
and municipalities to lessen or completely eliminate their
discharges of pollutants into the nation's atmosphere and
waterways. Hence, these pollution contributors must spend a
portion of their money resources for pollution abatement
regardless of the state of the economy. However, pollution
control expenditures are not independent of the state of the
economy because the level of economic activity affects the
level of production, which in turn affects the amount of
pollution generated by industries, consumers, and
municipalities. Consequently, the forecasts of pollution
control expenditures are based on corresponding forecasts of
national economic activity.
Forecasts of pollution control expenditures must also be
based upon explicit assumptions about the rate of compliance
with pollution control legislation. The assumed timetables
for installing pollution abatement equipment are given iater
In this Introduction as part of the compliance assumptions
for' this report. All cost estimates presented in this
report are expressed in 1975 dollars unless otherwise noted.
In addition, annual costs apply to calendar years unless
specified differently.
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
A consistent set of economic assumptions is the basis for
the cost estimates presented in this report. These
assumptions were used to produce a "Reference Case" forecast
of the U.S. economy and are summarized in Table 2. An
alternative set of economic assumptions is presented in
Section Four; the pollution control cost and pollutant
discharge estimates corresponding to this alternative
scenario enable us to evaluate possible variations from the
Reference Case estimates introduced by different economic
assumptions.
ENERGY ASSUMPTIONS
The energy assumptions for Reference Case pollution control
forecasts are taken from the Federal Energy Administration's
"Business as Usual" scenario in the November 1974 Project
Independence Report where the import price for oil is $7 per
barrel; they are summarized in Table 3.
1-4
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Table 2.
Reference Case Economic Assumptions
Economic
Assumption
Population-Series £
Projections
(Millions of People)
Labor Force
(Millions of People)
Labor Productivity
Gross National Product
(Trillions of
1975 Dollars)
Forecast Time Period
Unemployment Rate in
1985 (Full Employment
Economy)
Nominal Interest Rates
Federal Expenditures in
1980 and 1985 Excluding
Transfers and Pollution
Control Programs.
(Millions of 1975
Dollars)
Federal Expenditures
for Pollution control
Government
Agency
Bureau of the
Census
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Council of
Economic Advisors
(1975-1980) .Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(1980^-1985)
EPA
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Office of Manage-
ment and Budget
Department of
Commerce, Bureau
of Economic
Analysis
EPA
Values
1975-213.9
1980-224.1
1985-235.7
1975- 93.8
1980-101.8
1985-107.7
Varies by
industry
1975-1.47
1976-1.57
1977-1.69
1978-1.81
1979-1.85
1980-1.99
1985-2.40
1/1/76 -
12/31/85
4.5%
Public-10%
Private-10%
1980-1156,400
1985-1173,400
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Table 3.
United States Total Gross consumption of
Energy Resources (in Trillions of Btu's/Year)
(Business-as-Usual Without Conservation^7/Bbl Oil)
Fuel 1972 1977 1980 1985
Coal 12,495 16,854 18,074 19,888
Petroleum 32,966 37,813 41,595 47,918
Natural Gas 23,125 21,558 22,934 23,947
Nuclear Power 576 2,830 4,842 12,509
Other 2,946 3,543 4,014 4,797
TOTALS 72,108 82,598 91,459 109,059
Source: Project Independence Report. Federal
Energy Administration, Appendix Al, p.37,
November 1974.
AIR COMPLIANCE ASSUMPTIONS
EPA regulations and Federal legislation related to the Clean
Air Act of 1970 apply different levels and modes of air
pollution controls to these specific pollution source
categories: mobile sources (transportation vehicles),
existing stationary sources of air pollution, new stationary
sources of air pollution, and sources of hazardous
pollutants. The Clean Air Act and the cost estimates
presented in this report are based on the principle that
pollutant emissions will be brought under whatever level of
control is necessary to achieve national primary ambient air
quality standards. However, for many different reasons,
many industries have not met the July 1, 1975, compliance
date originally set for existing stationary sources.
Similarly, the original dates and standards established for
transportation vehicles have been changed. The specific
assumptions for each source category are described below:
1. Mobile Sources (Transportation Vehicles). The
emissions standards .and the compliance, schedule which must
be met by mobile sources are presented in Section Two of
this report (see Mobile Sources and State Transportation
Control Flans). The assumed compliance dates reflect the
delayed implementation of standards for reduced
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions
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from light-duty vehicles as proposed in 1977 amendments to
the Clean Air Act passed by both houses of Congress.
2. Stationary Sources (Existing). Stationary sources of
air pollution (industrial plants, electric utilities) which
existed at the time of passage of the Clean Air Act are
regulated by approved State implementation Plans (SIP's).
The standards assumed for each industry and for utilities
are given in the industry summaries in Section Two of the
report. Most SIP'S require compliance by July 1, 1975, but
achievement of this goal would imply a peaking of investment
which did not occur in 1974 and 1975. -Hence, except for
sulfur dioxide control by electric utilities, all existing
stationary sources are assumed to be moving toward full
compliance at an extended expenditure rate, as given in the
Summary for Section Two. A compliance date of January 1,
1981, i-s assumed for sulfur dioxide from utilities.
3. Stationary Sources (HewK New sources of air pollution
include new industrial plants built since the passage of the
Clean Air Act and also existing plants which have made
certain modifications in their facilities. These sources
are assumed to comply with EPA New source Performance
Standards (NSPS) except where such standards have not yet
been developed or where SIP standards are more stringent.
In these latter two cases, SIP standards are assumed. New
pollution sources are assumed to be in compliance with these
standards when they go into operation. The exact standards
being assumed are given in the appropriate sections in
Section Two.
WATER "COMPLIANCE ASSUMPTIONS
Unlike the Clean Air Act, the 1972 Amendments to the Federal
Water Pollution Control Act prescribe full Federal
regulation of water pollutant sources, except as redelegated
to specified states, in addition to setting ambient water
quality standards to be met by 1983, the Act specifies the
levels of control technology to be utilized by industrial
and municipal pollution sources by July 1, 1977 and by July
1,' 1983. EPA has defined these technologies for most major
industrial pollution sources in effluent guidelines
documents. it enforces the act through permit programs in
40 states, the remaining 10 having been delegated authority
for state enforcement. The provisions of the act and the
compliance assumptions for this report are enumerated below.
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1. Industrial Sources.
a. industries discharging pollutants into the Nation's
waters in 1972 will adopt the best practicable
pollution control technology (BPT) by January 1,
1978, and the best available technology {BAT) by
January 1, 1984. These dates have been pushed back
six months from those specified in the act to allow
the analysis for this report to be done on a
calendar year basis.
b. Industries for which BFT and BAT are not defined in
EPA guidelines are assumed to adopt control
technologies similar to those of related industries
covered by the guidelines. Specific control
technology assumptions for water polluting
industries investigated by this report are provided
in Section Three.
c. Industries discharging their wastewater into
municipal treatment plants must (and it is assumed
they do) pretreat their effluents so that industrial
pollutants do not interfere with plant operation and
do not pass through the treatment process without
adequate treatment. Pretreatment technology must«be
operating by January 1, 1978. Pretreatment is
assumed to be unnecessary for those industries for
which pretreatment guidelines have not been
prepared.
d. All new sources of water pollution (usually plants
constructed since 1974) are assumed to comply with
EPA NSPS guidelines.
2. Municipal Sources.
Compliance with the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
by all publicly owned sewage treatment plants in
existence on July I, 1977, would require them to
achieve a secondary treatment level for all effluents
or more stringent treatment where required by water
quality standards. Because of the difficulty facing
the municipalities in raising capital and limitations
in Federal construction grants, treatment plants cannot
be built at a fast enough rate to assure compliance
with the Act. instead, it is assumed in this report
that new plants will- only be built as rapidly as
permitted by Federal appropriations and state and local
matching funds, which are proposed as shown in Table 4.
These capital outlays represent actual expenditures,
which lag behind the schedule of construction grant
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awards to municipalities. Section Three discusses the
relationship between these appropriated funds and the
expenditures which would be necessary to comply with
the act.
These economic, energy, and compliance assumptions and
other less quantifiable policy variables are further
discussed in Section Four.
Table 4.
Direct Capital outlays for Construction of
Publicly Owned Sewage Treatment Plants
(Federal, State, & Local)
(In Millions of Appropriated Dollars)
Fiscal Year Calendar Year
1975 2,773 3,201
1976 3,628 4,499
Transition* 1,280
1977 5,623 5,927
1978 6,837 6,517
1979 5,558 4,877
1980 2,833 2,377
1981 1,010 907
1982 598 511
1983 251 251
1984 251 251
1985 251 251
* This "transition period" represents the months of
July through September 1976; all subsequent Fiscal
Years will run from October 1 through September 30
of the following year.
3'. Elimination of Discharge.
Although Elimination Of Discharge (EOD) is specified as
the goal of the Water Pollution Control Act, it is not
currently required by regulations except for those
industries where BAT is the same as EOD. consequently,
EOD is not assumed for the pollution control cost
estimates appearing in this report.
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POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS:
DEFINITIONS AND CALCULATION METHODS
The various costs presented in this report are described
below, and the general approach used to estimate costs in
each of three major categories is discussed. The three
categories are direct costs, government program
expenditures, and indirect costs.
Direct Costs
The expenditures associated with acquiring, owning, and
operating the buildings and equipment needed to control
pollution are direct costs. These costs are directly
incurred by industries and municipalities to reduce
pollutant levels; they include investment costs, operation
and maintenance costs, and the costs incurred to borrow the
necessary capital funds.
INVESTMENT COSTS
These costs include all expenditures for pollution control
equipment and associated modifications or additions to
buildings. They are the actual cash outlays used to
purchase and install the equipment and to construct the
buildings or building changes. In the case of municipal
treatment plants, the cost of building the whole plant is an
investment cost for pollution control. These costs do not
include those charges made by a lending institution for
borrowing the money, nor do they take into account the
income tax writeoff benefits which accrue to an industry due
to depreciation.
OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE
(O&M) COSTS
The annual costs of operating and maintaining the pollution
control equipment and plant include expenditures for:
1. Materials used by the equipment (e.g., chemicals)
2. Labor for maintenance and repairs
3. Energy
4. Materials for repairs
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5. Overhead
6. Monitoring (labor)
7, Byproduct credits.
TOTAL ANNUAL COSTS
Total annual costs are those costs incurred each year by
industry or government (municipalities) in owning and
operating pollution control equipment and plants. They are
the sum of the O&M costs for the year and the annualized
capital costs for the year. Note that annualized capital
costs are not the same as the investment costs discussed
above. Annualized capital costs are derived by amortizing
the initial investment over the life -of the facility, and
can be thought of as the annual amount needed to repay the
IQSUJ with interest over a specific time period.
COSTING METHODOLOGY
The direct costs of air and water pollution control are
reported separately for each source and source category.
For air , pollution, the major source categories are:
(4.) stationary.; sources, comprising industries, power
utilities, and space heating; and (2) mobile sources,
najD^Jy, automobiles, trucks, and aircraft. The major source
categories for water pollution are: (1) point sources, which
include municipalities, industries, power utilities, and
runoff- from, urban areas; and (2) nonpoint sources, which
include runoff from mining and drilling operations, and
agricultual crop production activities. Because urban
runoff and nonpoint-source pollution control is a far more
complex problem and an established regulatory procedure such
as effluent permits is not yet developed, control costs for
these sources could-not be reliably estimated, and hence,
are not reported in this document.
The details of .calculating costs differ among the major
source categories. in general, the procedure for each
source is:
1. Examine the regulations to determine the emission or
effluent standards, to be met.
2. Select from the alternative technologies those
pollution control methods that are likely to be
employed.
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3. Estimate the cost of using .these methods for
representative units (plants, vehicles, etc.).
4. Multiply these unit estimates by the total number of
such sources in the nation that are anticipated to
require control in the appropriate year. Thus, for
automobile emission controls, the cost of an individual
control system is multiplied by the total number of
automobiles estimated to be sold in the appropriate
year with that system.
This . procedure, which is more complicated for industrial
sources, is outlined below and is discussed more thoroughly
in Section Four of this report:
1.-Total industry production capacity is inventoried or
estimated.
2. unique production processes within the industry which
emit differing levels of pollutants and/or require
different control techniques are identified.
3. For each production process, the applicable abatement
control technologies are identified and the percentage
of plants using each technology is specified.
4. For each control technology associated with a given
production process, the percentages of plants covered
by different state implementation plans are estimated
(for air control cost calculations only).
5. usually from one to three typical plant sizes for each
given implementation plan, control technology, and
production process combination within the industry are
defined. (This combination is hereafter referred to as
an industry segment.)
6. The -capacity for the industry segment is allocated
among the plant sizes, and capital and O&M costs are
developed for a typical plant of each size in -the
segment, depending on the standard it must meet. 'tThis
depends in • part on whether it is a new or existing
plant.)
7. The-costs are.applied to all plants of the same size
within the segment; then costs for the different size
classes are summed to obtain total capital and O&M
costs for the segment. This is done for each segment
of each production process within the industry.
Control costs for the industry are obtained by
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totalling all the capital and O&M costs computed for
the industry's segments.
The costs associated with building and operating municipal
wastewater treatment plants for this report are directly
related to the Federal appropriations and state matching
funds available to build new plants rather than costs for
fully meeting regulations as in the industrial case. These
full costs have, however, been estimated in six "Needs"
categories. These categories relate to the Municipal Needs
Survey (Final Report to the Congress, "Cost Estimates for
Construction of Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment
Facilities", February 1977}, which was conducted by EPA to
determine the physical facilities needed by municipalities
to adequately handle their sewage treatment problems; the
categories are:
• Category I - Secondary treatment required.
*. Category II - More stringent treatment required
by water quality.
• Category IIIA - Correction of sewer
infiltration/inflow.
IIIB - Major sewer rehabilitation.
• Category IVA - Collector sewers.
IVB - Interceptor sewers.
P Category V - correction of combined sewer
overflows.
• Category VI - Treatment and/or control of
stormwaters.
Government Program Expenditure
Program costs which are incurred by governmental agencies in
carrying out pollution control legislation include
expenditures for planning, administration, enforcement, and
research grants. These costs are incurred at all three
1-evels of government: Federal, state, and local. The costs
of constructing, operating, and maintaining control
equipment owned by these governments are direct costs, and,
as such, are included in the air and water program costs
discussions in .Sections Two and Three, respectively.
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AIR PROGRAM COSTS
Government program costs for air pollution control have been
estimated separately for Federal and non-Federal programs.
Federal programs involve two types of funds: grant funds,
which are passed on to state and local governments; and in-
house funds, which are expended by a Federal agency or by
its contractors. Estimates of projected grant expenditures
are obtained from the relevant agencies, primarily from EPA,
which accounts for the vast majority of grant funds, and
from the Appalachian Regional Commission and the Department
of Transportation, which account for most of the remainder.
Estimates of projected in-house expenditures are based upon
Fiscal Year 1976 outlays.
The basic procedure used for estimating program expenditures
by state and local governments makes use of available data
for 15 representative states. The estimated ratios of
expenditures for various functional areas, such as
enforcement and engineering, are first derived for these
states and are then applied to all other states based on the
similarity of industrialization, geography, population, arid
general air pollution control policies.
In general, sources of data for projecting government
program costs for air pollution abatement beyond 1979 were
not available. instead, extrapolations were made from
baseline data on the basis of several reports that provided
forecasts of future government expenditures for specific
program components.
WATER PROGRAM COSTS
The major assumptions underlying the 10-year water program
projections are:
1. Future year estimates are a continuation of the
estimated Fiscal Year 1978 program level.
2. NO new major legislative amendments will be made to the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act.
As with the air program expenditures, Federal water program
expenditures are divided into two general categories:
Assistance Programs, which administer Federal grants; and
Regulatory Programs, which include all other Federal
administration and enforcement expenditures.
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The 10-year state program expenditure projections are
derived from the requirements under the 1972 Amendments of
the states to issue permits, review construction grants, and
monitor compliance. Permit costs are developed for each
major category of activity. State agencies perform a
variety of additional activities over and above those needed
to comply with Federal requirements; the expenditures for
these activities are not included here. In addition, there
is no provision for program expenditures for nonpoint-source
control activities.
indirect Costs
indirect costs are those experienced by government,
business, or consumers as a result of having to bear the
direct costs of pollution control. The added industrial
costs for pollution control must either be passed on to the
consumer in the form of increased prices or be absorbed by
industry in reduced profits. Where investment requirements
are high and profits are already low, some marginal plants
might find it impossible to continue operation in the face
of pollution control requirements. The resulting plant
closures may thus result in local unemployment problems.
This report examines some of the indirect macroeconomic
effects of pollution control at the national level. Thus,
Section Four presents an analysis of the impact of control
costs on aggregate production, investment, employment and
other national accounts.
EPA's Office of Planning and Evaluation conducts detailed
economic impact analyses for some major industries: e.g.,
Steel, Electric Utilities, Nonferrous Metals, Petroleum
Refining, Chemicals, and Pulp-and-Paper. These studies
cover the effects of current and proposed emission and
effluent standards on prices, profits, production,
productivity, plant closures, and employment for each
industry, at both national and regional levels.
COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT
The primary reason for assessing the costs, benefits, and
impacts of air and water pollution control resulting from
Federal legislation and regulations in the same report is to
make possible analysis of total impacts on the economy,
including changes in the interrelationships among the
various elements and sectors of the economy. Another
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consequence of the combined report is the capability of
estimating the total pollution control costs for a single
industry and their likely impact on that industry. For this
report, a comprehensive, impact estimation and analysis
system has been used to examine the comprehensive impacts of
"pollution control, at both national and industry levels.
This system, the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS), is summarized in'Section Four.
Alternative scenarios are run with SEAS to study the
relative consequences of meeting Federally legislated
controls under alternative assumptions about the future. A
comparative analysis procedure, which builds upon the
Reference Case forecasts described previously, is then used
to assess the results. Sdenario assumptions, scenario run
results, and comparisons among scenarios are presented in
Section Four.
As noted earlier, pollution control expenditures are not
independent of the state of the economy-. Similarly, the
impact of these expenditures on the economy, the
environment, and energy consumption depend on the initial
assumptions made about the future in each of these areas.
Hence, the objective in this report is not to predict
exactly what the impacts of pollution control will be over
the next 10 years, but rather to conditionally forecast
their relative magnitude and interrelationships. The
analysis focuses on how impacts vary as basic assumptions
about future economic 'activity and energy policy are
differentially changed.
The comparative analysis scheme used to assess the economic
and environmental impacts of pollution control in this
report takes into account that various experts may hold
differing views about future U.S. economic growth, economic
composition, and energy consumption. By exploring the
impacts of a range of reasonable assumptions about the
future, one is able, by this approach, to determine how
sensitive the economy, the environment, and energy budgets
are to alternative actions.
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
Assumptions for several alternative futures or scenarios are
defined in Section Four of this report. These scenarios
provide the basis for the comprehensive assessment of
pollution control impacts on the economy and the environment
also presented in Section Four. Although one forecast has
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been termed the Reference Case, it should not necessarily be
interpreted as a prediction of the most realistic future.
Rather, it is the benchmark or reference against which the
comparative analysis was conducted. Assumptions for the
Reference case are essentially those enumerated earlier in
this introduction. They describe a high productivity/high
growth-oriented economy where full employment is reached in
the early 1980's.
Other alternative scenarios considered in Section Four are
briefly described below.
1. The LOW Productivity Scenarios. These scenarios are
based on time series projections of labor productivity from
1952 to 1971 made by the developers of the INFORUM input-
output model of the economy used in SEAS. They reflect a
slowing down of productivity because of shifts toward
service industries in the pattern of final demand, and
because of a slowing down of the productivity increase rates
in other industries. GNP estimates which correspond to
these assumptions are shown in Table 5 compared with those
for the Reference Case.
Table 5.
Comparison of GNP Estimates for Low Productivity
and Reference Case Scenarios
(In Trillions of 1975 Dollars)
LOW Productivity Reference Case
GNP GNP
1975 1.53 1.47
1977 1.65 1.69
1980 1.84 1.99
1983 1.99 2.23
1985 2.08 2.40
2. The Energy conservation Scenarios. These scenarios
comprise a variation of the Reference Case in which energy
consumption is reduced through selected conservation
measures. It is based on the Federal Energy
Administration's "Business-as-Usual with Conservation"
scenario where the import price of oil is $11 per barrel.
(See Appendix Al, page 46 of the November 1974 Project
Independence Report.) The energy usage composition projected
by Project Independence is not exactly matched because of
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differences in energy demand resulting from the
redistribution of monetary savings to consumers.
Two scenarios are run and analyzed for each set of economic
and energy-related assumptions. The first scenario in each
case is used to develop a set of forecasts on the economy,
industry output, environmental residuals, and energy budgets
given no increase in pollution control beyond that present
in 1971. The same parameters are then forecast in a second
scenario, with pollution controls, costs, and equipment
punchases superimposed on the original economic assumptions
as necessary to comply with Federal legislation. This
procedure results in six major scenarios:
Without With
Abatement Costs Abatement Costs
Reference Case Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Low Productivity Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Energy Conservation Scenario 5 Scenario 6
The scenarios are then paired for a comparative analysis of
relative impacts and tradeoffs in the following manner:
(1,2) (1,3) (1,5) (2,4) (2,6) (3,4) (5,6). A subset of
Scenario 2, which assumes a continuing appropriation of $7
billion a year for municipal sewage treatment facilities, is
also compared with Scenarios 1 and 2. In addition to these
analyses, which are presented in Section Four, Section One
includes a study of the cost savings resulting from process
change as compared with Scenario 2 control costs.
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Chapter 2
The Benefits of
Pollution Control Programs
Pollution control legislation has traditionally favored
rigid standards, either to control the discharge of
pollutants into air and water or to maintain ambient quality
levels. While it was not possible to base such legislation
on an analytical estimation of the full benefits that would
result, its enactment reflected the judgement that the
overall benefits to society were great enough to justify the
necessary costs. Federal legislation also recognized the
need for more elaborate and more accurate assessment of the
costs and benefits of such programs, both for their
implementation and for future consideration of additional
legislation.
The purposes of such an assessment transcend the emphasis
often given to the techniques for quantifying benefits and
their numerical results, important though they may be. The
purpose of cost-benefit analysis is to provide the type of
information on the value of public investments that the
market system provides on the value of private investments.
However, public investments usually have many objectives in
addition to those easily measured in dollars and cents.
Still, the process of logical and systematic scrutiny that
is inherent in the accepted methods of cost-benefit analysis
can contribute greatly to society's ability to improve its
well-being by allocating more efficiently its limited
resources.
Thus, a major purpose of this discussion of the national
benefits of air and water pollution control is the
achievement of a more precise understanding of the nature,
sources, and approximate magnitude of such benefits. Such
an understanding, when shared by legislators, program
managers, and the public, may well be of greater value than
the numerical results themselves.
DEFINITION OF BENEFITS
Benefits of controlling air and water pollution derive from
the reduction of damages caused by air and water pollution.
The measurement of benefits is performed in terms of the
damages that would otherwise be incurred. A basic concept
in benefit evaluation is willingness to pay, which can be
defined as the highest price that individuals would be
1-19
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willing to pay to obtain the improvement in air or water
quality resulting from a given pollution control program.
Benefits are evaluated whenever possible in monetary terms
because it provides a common measure of all the types of
benefits and costs. The corresponding economic damages
result in o ut-o f-pocXet losses caused by increasing the
costs of using air and water, by decreasing the level of use
of the resource, and by increasing costs of avoiding or
repairing the effects of pollution.
Many types of benefits are not amenable to quantification in
monetary terms because of their nature and the state of the
art of available measurement methods. This is the case with
"psychic" damages, so labeled because they relate to the
pleasure or displeasure associated with the use of the air
and water in our environment. Psychic damages include
decrease or loss of pleasure from the use of air or water
that has become polluted, and the increased experience of
displeasure/ pain, and anxiety, as well as the so-called
option, preservation, and vicarious values experienced by
non-users.
Option values arise because people are willing to pay to
ensure the availability of clean air and water, even if they
are uncertain when or how they would actually use it.
Preservation values arise in a similar fashion, when people
are willing to pay for the preservation of a resource, even
when they are certain that they will never use it directly.
Both preservation and option values are frequently
associated with a unique environmental resource, for which
no substitute exists. Preservation value can also be
associated with risk aversion, in which a value is placed on
the reduction in the probability of the loss of an
environmental resource through extinction of a species or
collapse of an ecological system.
Finally, the term vicarious satisfaction has been used to
describe the motivation of people who are willing to pay to
provide benefits for their fellow citizens rather than for
themselves, and bequest value describes the similar benefit
derived by individuals preserving an environmental resource
for future generations. Although all these psychic values
and the corresponding damages caused by pollution are
currently not easily measured, they apparently account for a
significant portion of the total value of pollution control
to society.
In general, estimation of benefits resulting from
alternative pollution control programs calls for four steps:
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• Estimate the amounts of pollutants produced by
projected economic activity.
•• Estimate the remaining discharge of pollutants to the
environment after imposition of specified control
measures.
• Estimate the ambient air or water quality that results
from the diffusion and assimilation of pollutants by
the environment.
• Estimate the nature and magnitude of resultant reduced
damages and the corresponding benefits.
The first two steps involve the projection of a suitable
economic scenario and evaluation of the cost-effectiveness
of various administrative and technological pollution
controls. The third step requires the use of complex models
of the diffusion and assimilation of specific pollutants.
The last step relies on the development and interpretation
of dose-effect factors or damage functions, which are
discussed in the next section.
Finally to the extent that they were developed for specific
cases, estimates must eventually be aggregated over the
pollutant/effect combinations, geographic regions, and time
periods of interest.
PHYSICAL AND ECONOMIC
DAMAGE FUNCTIONS
A damage function is the quantitative expression of a
relationship between exposure to specific pollutants and the
type and extent of the associated effect on a target
population. Exposure is typically measured in terms of
ambient concentration levels and their duration, and it may
be expressed as "dosage" or "dose". The former is the
integral of the function defining the relationship between
time and ambient level to which the subject has been
exposed. Dose, on the other hand, represents that portion
of the dosage that has been instrumental in producing the
observed effect (e.g., the amount of pollutants actually
inhaled in the case of health effects of air pollution') .-
The effect can become manifest in a number of ways and can
be expressed in either physical and biological or economic
terms. If the effect is physical or biological, the
resultant relationship is known as a physical or biological
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damage function, or a dose-effect function. On the other
hand, an economic damage function is expressed in monetary
terms. Economic damage functions can be developed by
assigning dollar values to the effects of a physical or
biological damage function, or by direct correlation of
economic damages with ambient pollutant levels. A
representative economic damage function, showing the
benefits corresponding to a given improvement in
environmental quality, is presented in Figure 1.
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Figure 1.
Damage Function
O
o
LU
O
I
DAMAGE FUNCTION
THRESHOLD
WITH
CONTROL
PROGRAM
WITHOUT
CONTROL
PROGRAM
CONCENTRATION OF
POLLUTANT IN THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT
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The S-shaped damage function is rather characteristic of the
relationships between pollutant exposure and resultant
effect. The lower portion of the curve suggests that, up to
certain pollutant ambient values, known as threshold levels,
there,'are no measurable damages, while the upper portion
indicates that there is a saturation level (e.g., death of
the target population), beyond which increased pollutant
levels do not produce additional damages. Between these
segments is a range where damages are roughly proportional
to the concentration of pollutants.
in reporting a damage function, one must specify the
pollutant, the dose rate, the effect, and the target
population, or the population at risk. Dose rate, or the
rate at which ambient concentration varies with time, has a
major influence on the nature and severity of the resultant
effect. Long-term exposure to relatively low concentrations
of air pollutants may result in manifestations of chronic
disease, characterized by extended duration of development,
delayed detection, and long prevalence. On the other hand,
short-term exposure to high concentration levels may produce
acute symptoms characterized by quick response and ready
detection. Characterization of the population at risk is
considered in more detail in subsequent paragraphs of this
discussion.
The two principal techniques for analyzing the relationship
between exposure and effect indices necessary to construct a
damage function are known as multivariate regression and
nonparametric or distribution-free estimation. Multivariate
regression is b,y far the favored technique because it
provides a rapid indication of the degree of association
between a large number of independent and dependent
variables and is readily programmable for computer
operation. However, its validity is heavily contingent on a
fairly precise a priori definition of the relationship
between each independent and dependent variable, and on
precise measurement of the independent variables. Thus,
this technique is especially vulnerable to the poor
precision in measurement and reporting of air pollution
levels for a given segment of population. Nonparametric
estimating is free of these assumptions, but it calls for
laborious data reduction for each of the many pairs of
independent and dependent variables, and expert judgement to
guide each step of the process. Moreover, this technique
requires sufficient data for each independent variable to
isolate and remove the influence of likely interfering
factors.
1-24
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The data required to construct damage functions can be
obtained by the following approaches:
• Epidemiological or field studies and observations
• lexicological or laboratory investigations
• Market studies
• Delphi method
» Public opinion surveys
* Legislative decisions
• Litigation surveys.
The first two approaches are attuned to physical damage
functions, while the remaining ones are directed toward
derivation of economic relationships.
The first approach involves the comparative examination of
the effects of pollutants on large segments of population
exposed to different levels of pollution in order to deduce
the nature and magnitude of the likely effect. Field
studies and observations represent the same approach to
assessment of effects on animals, vegetation, and materials,
and they are characterized by similar analytical techniques
and concerns. lexicological studies involve deliberate
administration of controlled doses of pollutants to animal
subjects, followed by observation of the resulting effects.
Laboratory studies represent essentially the same approach
for determining effects of pollutants on plants and
materials.
Two considerations need to be noted about epidemiological
and field studies. First, it is very important to remove or
control the influence of factors other than pollution that
may be responsible for the different effects observed. In
the case of health effects, for example, these include
physiological, genetic, and other characteristics of the
population under observation, such as age, sex, race, family
medical history, occupational exposure, medical care, state
of health, and nutrition. When these characteristics cannot
be factored out, it is frequently assumed that -their
distribution is sufficiently uniform in the populations
under observation that the basic results are not affected
significantly. Secondly, epidemiological and field studies
and observations can only indicate an association between
exposure to pollution and the observed effect, though the
impact of an association can be strengthened'considerably
through evidence of consistency and specificity of the
relationship. A causal relationship can be demonstrated, or
made plausible by toxicological and laboratory studies, or
by the construction of a plausible connective mechanism.
1-25
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Market studies, such as those investigating differences in
property value or income, employ prices or wages as an
indication of the values affected by pollution, and their
usefulness has been demonstrated in a number of cases. This
approach is heavily dependent on the investigator's ability
to identify and isolate the many other factors that affect
the value of property, or other indicators used, in the
Delphi method, the knowledge of a diverse group of experts
is pooled for the task of quantifying variables that are
either intangible or shrouded in uncertainty. This method
provides an efficient way to obtain subjective, but
informed, judgements. Thus, in a recent project, the
California Air Resources Board under EPA sponsorship
constructed a number of dose-response functions based on
expert opinions submitted by a group of clinicians and other
health effects researchers.
Surveys of public opinion focus on estimating indivudal
preferences and demands. such surveys have been
particularly helpful in understanding how attitudes about
pollution are formed and affected by changes in
environmental quality. They can also provide an indication
of what people may be willing to pay for enhancement of
environmental quality, or perhaps, what their preference
might be for the reduced risk of experiencing certain
adverse effects. Surveys of legislative decisions or
litigation awards can also provide some insight into the
perceived value of pollution abatement.
POPULATION AT RISK
in the past, it was customary to assess the severity of air
pollution in terms of point-source emissions, and later, in
terms of ambient concentrations. These indicators reflected
the progression in the state of the art from visual
assessment of smoke plumes to increasing availability of air
quality monitoring stations and associated data processing
capabilities. However, the real significance of air
pollution lies in its physical, economic, and social impact
on the affected population.
Beyond this, characterization of the population at risk in
terms of its potential susceptibility to various levels of
air pollution can provide useful indications for allocation
of resources and setting of priorities in air pollution
abatement. For example, a higher clean-up priority could be
assigned to an area containing a large population of older
people or those exposed to high occupational pollution than
1-26
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to another area with a smaller population of relatively
healthy people not otherwise exposed to harmful pollutants.
This procedure can be refined further through control of
specific pollutants.
Since the importance of characterizing the population at
risk to various levels of air pollutants became recognized,
there have been several attempts to obtain such a
characterization through crude regional estimates. The
first comprehensive, national assessment was only recently
completed. The major assumptions and findings of this study
are summarized here.
The specific objective of the population at risk study was
to calculate the number of people in selected demographic
and socioeconomic classes who are exposed to various levels
of several air pollutants. This was accomplished in six
steps:
Select air quality indices
Select population indices
Select air quality and population coverage units
Obtain and process air quality data
Obtain and process census data
Calculate population at risk.
The pollutants selected were total suspended particulates,
sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and
photochemical oxidants. The air quality indices were
expressed in terms of the relationships of pollutant ambient
levels to their corresponding short-and long-term primary
standards. They were divided into four classes: 0-75
percent, 75-100 percent, 100-125 percent, and above 125
percent of the corresponding primary standard, in the case
of short-term standards, the 90th and 99th percent!les of
the observed values were found to be more useful indicators
than the maximum values.
Human susceptibility and resultant response to toxicological
and physical stress produced by air pollutants is determined
somewhat by certain intrinsic traits, such as age, race,
sex, and general health, as well as by such extrinsic
characteristics as employment, income, educational level,
and general environmental conditions. The population
classes selected for the study are listed below:
1-27
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• Age: * Employment:
- Under 19 years - Manufacturing
- 20-64 years - Other
- 65 years and over
• Race: • Family income:
- White - Under $5,000
- Black - $5,000-$24,999
- Other - $25,000 and
over
Although population information from the U.S. Bureau of the
Census is available for the entire country, air quality
data, stored in EPA's Rational Aerometric Data Bank, are
not. The gaps occur in the form of specific pollutants, the
short-term or long-term values, or missing stations.
Consequently, this study dealt with 241 standard
metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs), which cover 68.6
percent of the population and 11.0 percent of the land area
of the United States. Pollutant ambient levels in these
areas were derived by plotting isopleths (equal
concentration contours) between air quality monitoring
stations and by superimposing this display over maps of the
SMSAs. The year of coverage for air quality data was 1973,
though the population information was based on the 1970 U.S.
census.
Finally, the population at risk was computed within each
pollutant and population class, and aggregated to state,
regional, and national levels. The results are displayed in
tables of population versus air quality classes for
different combinations of pollutants and geographic
locations. The national aggregations for all five
pollutants are presented in Tables 1 through 5.
The study concluded that the exposure of the U.S. population
surveyed to short-term particulate, short and long-term
sulfur dioxide, and short-term carbon monoxide levels was
within the respective permissible primary air quality
standards. On the other hand, significant portions of the
population surveyed were exposed to excessive long-term
particulate (31 percent), long-term nitrogen dioxide (24
percent), and short-term oxidant (58 percent) levels.
1-28
-------
to
Arm United State*
AUPeUutofc Tottl8u.pendedP.rtloul.te*
Bbort Term - 80th poroonUU of 24 boar 461
106
188
18
114
47
2
U
52
1
18.1%
168
Long Term
<60
U,668
28,414
4,442
47,54*
4,817
664
i,m
10,644
864
26.2%
61,766
61-76
10,611
16,664
8.874
26,108
4.661
127
Mtt
6.017
4N
25.1%
80,188
78-86
7.064
8,186
l.WO
11,761
t,806
286
iU
1.116
186
87.8%
17.0S4
81-120
4,646
6,661
1,186
16,866
1,882
266
tat
1.187
141
26.8%
18,687
>1«
1,768
4,606
676
6,441
608
1H
JM
1.644
111
M.«%
7.486
I
c
1-1
Si
ft
!->•
§
r» (u
a n
£ N
—- o ft- Oi
- S)
o *-* or
O •< H
on PJ
c w er
M » H-
0) D O I-
O O> <9 •
•^ y
^ 0
n
0)
I
0)
o
rt-
W
-------
3
•o
Area: United States
Air Pollutant! Sulfur Dfoxlda
Air Quality ladexi Short Term - 90th paroeoUla of 24 hour daU
Long Term - Annual arlthmotlo mean
§
u>
o
Population
CfaaraoterUttce
A. General
A(Bi 0-1*
20-6*
85 and over
BMWI White
Negro
All other
B. Ecooomlo
Annual family Inoomei
(thousand* of familial)
SO-S4.999
$8,000-«24.99»
$26, 000 and ever
C. Labor Force
Percentage la
fYftttpfrfa^^iy^My
D. Total Population
Air Quality L*v«l Cluieo - flg/n*
Short To rm
< 280
49,289
70,412
12,174
113,073
18.032
1,768
6,4(7
26,648
1,932
26.4%
131,880
281-366
62
93
19
161
IS
1
«
97
a
43,0%
174
aee-420
a
s
i
a
3
0
1
1
0
14.5%
>420
Long Term
<«0
37,403
63,634
8.887
83.921
13,133
1,760
4.067
16,394
1.664
28.2%
99,884
61-80
399
6M
118
828
146
10
43
206
14
23.7%
1,083
81-100
W7
Sl«
28
383
15
t
13
80
t
M.»
410
>100
1
I
6
3
C
0
0
0
•
28.9%
2
W rt
X (D
0) N
**•* O fD
H^ O* Qj
O "< H
0)
to w tr
c o *~*
•-• o n
01 c
g
to
A)
3
CX
5?
a
O
R
01
-------
Area: United States
Air Pollutant: Carbon Moacslifa
Air Quality Index: Start Term - 99th porcentlle o£ raM hour data
I
t-J
at
rf
H-
o
o
Population
6baracterUtic3
A» Ceaaral'
Ago: 0-18
20-64
85 and over
B»ce: White
Negro
All other
8. Economic
AnousI family tacoma:
(thousands ol families)
$0-§4,8PS
$5,000-^24,999
$25,000 and over
C. Lsbor Forco
S££
D. Total Popohmo*
Air Quality Level Clasaes - jjg/ms
<30
S7.35«
54,304
9,217
86,844
12,457
1,766
4,&36
19,788
1,610
24.7%
iW.SOT
41-46
246
420
88
606
127
21
33
149
IS
13.8%
41-SO
242
467
88
509
163
46
42
137
6
26.0%
748
>61
m
S&2
60
4BS
4T
44
IS
«4
S
«.n
KS
W n-
X (0
18 N
— .
-------
I
(->
01
Are»: United Kate*
AIT Pollutant: OMdaata
Air Quality ladext Short Tons - 99th peroeoUlo al ooo hoar data
PopuJntlaQ
ChtnctertiUoa
A, OenainU
' Af«: 0-19
20-44
68 nod over
B»o»! White
Negro
Alt ether
B. Eeotiomlc
Aamul family Incomes
(thooModa.of famiUea)
JO-W.998
$5, 000-134, M9
M5.000 «ad onr
C. Labor Foroa
Percentaga la
wflmtff ^*JM rime
ft Total Fopulattoo
Air XM
10,726
14,306
2,424
25.008
2.88i
MO
1,073
8,818
421
31.3%
M.4S5
§
n
I
s>
W O
OJ H-
m N
a, m
o o er
o *< »-3
O SB 0)
H- w tr
W rt O >-•
1 O H-
CO vQ O *•
o o ^ *
330
(JO Q
X H-
Cu
Cb
s
I
>1
I
o
0)
-------
6)
Area; United State*
Air Mutants Nitrogen Dltuddo
Air QualitT Indezi Ixng Tirm - Annuml arithmetic mean
I
to
H-
O
D
O
B)
n
a>
o
Populattoe
CbanotoriaUoa
A. Generri
Age: 0-19
20-64
65 and over
Raoei White
Negro
Ail other
B. Economic
Annual family income:
(thousands of famlltea)
|0-»4,999
J5, 000-424. 899
$2S, 000 and over
C. Labor Force
Percentage in
nuufacturlnf
D. ToUl Populaden
Air Quality Level Claw* - pe/m3
<80
«,»68
9,034.
1,421
15,024
1,195
604
*SS
1.303
M6
13.1%
16,723
81-100
1,687
3,'4TO
472
3,948
666
24
193
905
63
30.1%
4,«3»
101-126
2,223
3,374
5S4
5,364
577
310
243
1,100
104
26.9%
«,151
>1»
220
4«0
90
536
US
52
35
139
21
27.0%
no
W
x
.»a
o
a
o
5
1
ft)
•§-
o
tn
-------
PROBLEMS OF MEASUREMENT
Assessment of benefits of pollution control is beset by a
number of major difficulties that have a profound effect on
the accuracy and reliability of the benefit estimates. Some
of these difficulties can be largely overcome with the aid
of available ancillary information, while others require the
expenditure of much additional effort. Still others must be
dealt with by indirect estimation and other imprecise
techniques. The more important problem areas may be listed
as follows:
• Collection of reliable ambient quality data
• Selection of exposure indices and identification of
synergistic effects
• Selection of representative populations
• Measurement of effects
* Establishment of causal relationships
* Presentation of non-quantifiable information
* Regional, demography and temporal extrapolation
• Consistent classification of damages
• Double-counting and omission of damages
• Assessment of damage reductions.
Collection of sufficient air and water ambient quality data
requires a very large number of measuring stations and a
commitment to measurement and data handling well in excess
of the present level, because the problem concerns numerous
point and nonpoint sources of pollutants discharging at
irregular intervals into air and water. Consequently, the
available data seldom reflect hourly, or even diurnal
variations that may be important.
Collection of useful data on damages and their proper
attribution to exposure to specific levels of various
pollutants suffers from several handicaps* One is the
problem of selecting the proper exposure index for each
pollutant in terms of level, duration, and presence of other
pollutants, or influence of meteorological and hydrological
factors. Another is the need to select sample populations
that are representative of the population at large in terms
of susceptibility to detectable levels of damage. In the
case of health effects, this involves segregation based on
demographic and socioeconomic makeup of the population at
risk.
A third difficulty lies in measuring the resultant effects.
This is especially problematic in the case of psychic
damages, such as those associated with health, recreation,
aesthetics, option, and preservation values. Such damages
1-34
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are not adequately assigned costs by the market system
because they are aspects of environmental use that are not
owned privately or exchanged. Thus, estimation of the
corresponding benefits requires development of proxy or
surrogate measures.
The fourth and most formidable problem involves identifying
and documenting a causal relationship between exposure to a
given dose and production of a specific effect and deriving
the corresponding damage function. The existing literature
contains estimates for only a few discrete points on the
many damage functions of interest. In order to produce
national benefit estimates, it is frequently necessary to
make major assumptions about the shape of the damage curve
on the basis of these few points.
Most studies leading to the evaluation of damages resulting
from exposure to various pollutants address a specific
geographic area, population, and time frame. Extension to
the national level and a more recent time frame requires
extrapolations of ambient levels, population at risk,
personal income, and increases in costs of resultant damages
due to inflation. The classification of damages, for which
the data are collected, is often dictated by availability of
sources and analytical expediency, rather than a uniform and
self-consistent framework. Consequently, different studies
evaluate damages that are not necessarily additive or even
comparable, and any effort to reconcile or aggregate the
results of such studies must apply careful interpretive
techniques to prevent gross overlaps or omissions of damage
estimates. Moreover, in aggregating such fractional
results, it i's not currently possible to reflect the
potential impacts of changes in one pollutant or one region
on the damages caused by other pollutants or in other
regions, nor has it been possible to reflect the impact of
the general adjustments the economy would make to pollution
control programs and the resulting reduction in damages.
Finally, with effective abatement, the estimate of benefits
associated with a given level of pollution control can be
expressed in terms of the corresponding reduction of
damages. This step, in turn, requires the definition of a
quantitative relationship between reduced emissions and
resultant ambient levels, as well as between these improved
ambient levels and reduced damages. Development of
pollutant transport and dispersion models describing the
first set of relationships has been only partly successful
because of the many ill-defined variables involved. Thus,
it is commonly assumed that the fractional decrease in
ambient levels is essentially proportional to the fractional
reduction of emissions. The second set of relationships is
1-35
-------
defined by the damage functions discussed earlier. The unit
damages obtained from a damage curve are converted to total
damages through multiplication by the number of units at
risk and the cost-per-unit damage, as appropriate.
Thus, assessment of benefits associated with a given level
of pollution control is still most assuredly an art, which
permits divergent interpretation of available data that may
lead to widely differing results. For this reason, although
certain studies on air and water pollution damages are cited
in Sections Two and Three, national aggregate damage
estimates are not presented in this report.
1-36
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Chapter 3
Pollution control Cost Reduction
Through Process Change
.INTRODUCTION
Opportunities for air and water abatement cost reduction
through process change were identified for 40 industries.
Five industries were examined in detail: copper, Aluminum,
Pulp and Paper, Petroleum, and Inorganic Chemicals, using
Reference case abatement costs developed in sections Two and
Three as a baseline, the extent of reduction achievable
through specific process change candidates in each industry
was determined. The relative savings in accumulated capital
expenditures through 1985 in the five industries are: 14.5
percent, 9.6 percent, 10.1 percent, 12.0 percent, and 2.5
percent. The analogous savings in annualized costs for 1985
are: 35.0 percent, 11.0 percent, 28.5 percent, 24.0 percent,
and 25.0 percent, when these savings are assessed in terms
of their applicability to opportunities in the other 35
industries, the total capital and annualized cost reductions
for all 40 industries relative to Reference Case abatement
costs are estimated to be (in percentage reductions): 1.2
percent and 9.9 percent.
Impact of Process Change Upon
the Cost of A Clean Environment
Pollution control legislation and associated effluent
guidelines require that industry attain specific levels of
pollutant control. The mechanism for achieving these levels
is left to the discretion of each industry. The simple
approach is to add treatment steps to the process at the
points of waste emission, which are termed end-of-pipe
control. The costs associated with these end-of-pipe (EOP)
steps furnish an economic motive for waste-reduction process
changes. If a net abatement cost reduction can be achieved
through process change relative to that process or a
competing process employing end-of-pipe treatment, an
incentive for process change exists. This concept is
evidenced in the generic types of process change in the more
advanced standards (BAT, BPT, NSPS). For example, process
changes designed to reduce water requirements, permit
greater water reuse, and minimize leaks and spills are
included in the compliance strategies recommended in the EPA
effluent guideline development documents; considerable
evidence exists to indicate such potential. Exemplary
1-37
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plants in many industries do operate at much higher
efficiencies than the corresponding typical plants, and
plant modernizations have been able to substantially improve
abatement efficiency at a reasonable cost. In this
discussion, emphasis is placed upon assessing the cost
reductions achievable through process changes other than
those included in the Reference Case of Section Four.
A number of important distinctions must be made. There are
important differences between what can be achieved in a new
plant as compared with the upgrading of an existing
facility. In some instances, it is less costly to abandon
an existing facility and build a new one than it is to
convert the older facility. in such a case, nearly all
capital associated with the abandoned plant must be
forfeited. When conversion of the existing facility is
reasonable, the capability to do so may be unevenly spread
across the industry. The larger firms have both greater
technological capability and financial reserves than the
smaller firms. Thus, even a technologically-feasible
retrofit process change may have considerable economic
impact.
Such economic considerations are well Known. They are
restated here to emphasize their importance in assessing
process change as a method of reducing end-of-pipe treatment
requirements. A final general comment of this type pertains
to tax considerations. If a tax benefit is granted EOF-type
investment and not those related to process change, there is
an incentive to pursue the former course.
This discussion identifies the type of savings that may be
achieved through process change. The estimates made are
intended to be indicative rather than exact; i.e., the
analysis objective is to establish reasonable bounds between
which the impact of process change can be evaluated. The
reference cases for comparison are the industry costs
established in Sections Two and Three of this report. The
measure of the economic benefit from the process change is
the extent to which the pollution control savings relative
to the Reference Case exceed the costs incurred in the
process change. The industry-wide savings are derived by
identifying the extent of industry acceptance of the
designated process change.
Effect of Environmental Standards
on the Rate of Process Change
in considering the effect of environmental regulations on
industry's acceptance of process change, it must be
1-38
-------
remembered that this relationship takes place within the
framework of industry's overall investment decisions. Most
industries have a tacitly expressed, minimum acceptable rate
of return. Below this level, investment is not believed to
enhance a company's financial position, and other
considerations, such as liquidity, may predominate. Whether
or not sufficiently lucrative opportunities exist often
depends on the investment climate, which in turn may be
heavily influenced by interest rates, current market
behavior, etc. Even under favorable investment conditions,
corporations have limited capital resources. Consequently,
they must select among investment options, seeking the
opportunity most likely to bring a high, reliable return on
venture capital.
Comparison of investment opportunities is conducted on the
basis of comparative profitability. A piece of equipment,
like a furnace, will process a given product throughput over
a specified lifetime. The value of this production, based
on projected prices, is compared against the capital outlays
required to build and operate the unit; ancillary costs and
benefits must be included in this comparison. An existing
furnace has an established set of operating specifications:
energy requirements, recovery efficiency, etc. If the
challenging process can reduce energy needs, the operating
savings that result are included in the profitability
comparison.
In addition, an attempt should be made to assess the
"venture risk" involved in the investment; an example is a
shoe manufacturer's investment in a line of ski boots. The
investor understands that an unseasonally warm winter might
cut his sales prospects in half. This estimate of risk is
taken into account in determining the desirable rate of
return. Venture risk similarly applies to the introduction
of new processes, where the firm takes a risk that the
process will not live up to expectations.
In a highly competitive market, the costs associated with
end-of-pipe control may be so high that firms cannot pass
them on as higher prices without losing competitiveness.
These plants must either develop alternative control
strategies that can be implemented at an acceptable level of
cost, or close their doors. In these cases, in-plant
controls can truly be said to be environmentally inspired.
However, environmental regulations can also indirectly
affect investment decisions by altering the profitability of
certain options. Existing facilities will have additional
capital and operating costs associated with end-of-pipe
treatment of its wastes, assuming compliance with
1-39
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environmental standards. in-plant changes that reduce
treatment costs will be treated like any other benefit in
profitability calculations.
Abatement costs can affect the process trends that would
have developed in the absence of environmental
considerations in a variety of ways. The additional cost
can tip the scales in favor of a project that was formerly
less profitable. Alternatively, it can further improve the
profitability of an already preferred investment
opportunity, thereby accelerating its rate of acceptance by
the industry. It is important to realize that in both these
events the environmental regulations are only one of several
motivating factors; the abatement savings are not usually
sufficient to justify investment unless other advantages are
gained as well. This fact becomes relevant when allocating
the portion of cost savings attributed to the environmental
regulations.
On the other hand, environmental investments do involve one
special circumstance that vitally increases their
importance. Traditional decisions on an investment, such as
capacity expansion, offer a firm three choices: expansion
using proven technology, expansion using a challenging
process, or no expansion. By law, abatement decisions do
not permit the third path of inaction to be taken; either an
alternative abatement strategy must be found, or the present
plant abated through end-of-pipe methods. Furthermore,
expenditures on equipment with the sole function of control
yield no direct economic return to the corporations.
Consequently, firms may be receptive to strategies that can
attain abatement objectives while in some way improving the
processing efficiency of the plant.
Before proceeding, two cases should be noted in which
environmental regulations do not affect general process
trends. The first case is where little difference exists
between the abatement costs for the two processes. If a
relatively new process is only marginally 'more profitable
after 'subtracting venture risk than the established
technology, most companies' will retain the proven profit-
maker. This is important in the present discussion because
the'time frame in which alternatives to EOF treatment can be
undertaken is very short. In the second case, a process
that has to pay much higher abatement costs may remain more
profitable than its competitor, 'in this case, the "dirtier"
process will continue to be substituted for the "cleaner"
process. This process change will have the effect of
increasing total industry abatement'costs.
1-40
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Types of Process Change
A survey was conducted within 29 polluting industries to
identify those process changes that have significant
pollution treatment implications. Three major categories of
process change were found: material changes, process
modification, and process substitutions . An additional and
important type of change exists that, while not associated
with a specific process, affects the control costs for each
process. These are plant-wide changes, such as
housekeeping, coordinated water usage by a set of processes
to achieve a net reduction in water usage, etc. in the
following discussion, plant-wide changes are addressed in
terms of their effect on individual processes.
MATERIAL CHANGES
Material changes include modifying the nature or quality of
raw materials employed or adjusting the specifications of
the product produced. For example, use of natural Trona as
a source of sodium carbonate obviates the large quantities
of waste generated by Solvay process synthesis of sodium
carbonate from salt and limestone. Likewise, use of rutile
rather than ilmenite in the production of titanium dioxide
significantly reduces waste quantities. Alternatively,
synthetic rutile can be generated by pretreatment of
ilmenite. Recycled or secondary material inputs are also
important. For example, increased aluminum recycling
circumvents the waste produced during bauxite processing.
An example of a product specification change is the
incorporation of a portion of process waste sludge in paper
products not requiring high brightness.
Often, material changes are made on the basis of economic
considerations .related to materials availability. For
example, domestic bauxite is of lower quality than bauxite
imported from Jamaica, Surinam, or Australia; hence, the
majority of bauxite consumed in the United States each year
is imported. However, if the countries of origin are able
to establish a higher bauxite price, the domestic
alternative will appear more desirable. Such a change in
material input will affect the nature and increase the
quantity of wastes generated. Another example relates to
the use of rutile in titanium dioxide production, as already
discussed. Rutile, possessing a higher titania content, is
predominantly, imported from Australia, while large
quantities of ilmenitejore exist in the United States. An
adjustment could be made in the event rutile became either
hard to obtain or highly priced. Again, the nature of the
waste stream would change.
1-41
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Crude oil quality also varies with its point of geographic
origin. For example, Middle Eastern crudes have a higher
sulfur content than domestic crudes, and the percentage
usage of the former is increasing. Meanwhile, restrictions
on the sulfur content of fuel oil for consumer use require
that the refinery, which is now dealing with additional
sulfur in its primary raw materials, reduce the sulfur
content in its final product. This change in product
specifications directly affects the amount of processing
required, and, hence, the pollution-control related costs.
Environmental considerations are only one of the factors
impinging upon the selection of raw material type.
Nevertheless, the nature of the raw material utilized can
have a direct effect upon the costs of pollution abatement.
PROCESS MODIFICATIONS
Three types of process modification were identified: revised
process operation, byproduct recovery, and process-specific
waste treatment.
1. Revised Process Operation. This category includes
those process modifications made in an effort to
improve process economics. The principal attribute is
that in some way the efficency of the central reaction
is improved, i.e., greater quantities of the desired
products and lower quantities of pollution are
generated per unit of input material. This may be
accomplished by changing the temperature or pressure of
the reaction, extending or shortening the residence
time, improving reactant mixing, introducing a more
stable catalyst, increasing recycle quantities,
reducing water use, or invoking real-time computer
control. In some cases, optimal process operation when
pollution control is required will differ from that
when such control is not required. Usually, a complex
linear programming scheme is required to balance the
many factors involved in identifying the optimal
performance, and this determination is strongly
affected by the character of the input materials, as
previously discussed. ,
2. Byproduct Recovery. The recovery of a salable material
from the process waste stream is an obvious and often
mentioned method of simultaneously reducing the waste
load and at least partially compensating for the costs
.involved. However, the opportunity to profitably sell
such recovered materials is sometimes elusive. An
extreme example is the recovery of sulfur and its
1-42
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various compounds as pollution control. The
marketplace may be unable to accommodate the quantities
of sulfur to be made available. Hence, extraction of
sulfur from the air and water waste stream could merely
serve to transform the sulfur into a more readily-
controlled solid waste. Attempts are underway to
expand the market for sulfur compounds by identifying
new applications, but there may be limits to the amount
of market expansion possible.
In many cases, recovered material can be put to
profitable use. Frequently, the application is an in-
plant use of the recovered material to perform a
function that previously required a purchased input/
(e.g., heat and fiber reuse in the paper industry). In
addition, industrial complexes are beginning to
cooperate in using each other's waste streams when a
desired attribute is present.
3. Process-Specific Treatment. This process modification
is the treatment of process waste prior to merging it
with the waste streams of other processes for end-of-
pipe treatment. In general, the process waste must
have some specific attribute that necessitates a unique
treatment step; otherwise, the economies of scale
associated with end-of-pipe treatment prevail.
Process Substitution. Process substitution is differentiated
from process modification in that a fundamental change is
made to the central reaction step. For example, going from
the mercury cell to the diaphragm cell in chlorine
production and from the open-hearth to the basic-oxygen
furnace in - steel production are process substitutions. For
comparison, changing the reaction conditions, enlarging the
reactor, or adding ancillary process equipment are process
modifications.
Process substitutions are an extremely important process
change category in terms of their effect upon pollution
control requirements. A recent study of solid waste
generation^ showed that for 17 of the 34 largest producers
of process solid waste among industrial chemicals, a process
substitution was underway or had already taken place. in
each case, the amount of solid waste generated was reduced.
As process efficiencies are improved, the yield of the main
product goes up and the quantity of waste generated
correspondingly goes down. In addition, the remaining
wastes tended to be easier to treat. Usually, wastes
associated with the raw materials can be segregated with
comparative ease. The ones produced during the principal
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reaction, however, are generally closely associated with the
main product, and hence, are more difficult to separate.
COSTING METHODOLOGY
The industry Survey analysis, which appears later in this
discussion, disclosed a number of promising process change
opportunities. These opportunities were evaluated to
determine the extent to which such process changes can be
expected to reduce pollution control costs relative to the
Reference Case, primarily an end-of-pipe approach. To do
this, five representative industries were selected that
together illustrate the various modes of process change.
Specific process change candidates, ranging from the
modification of a single processing step to replacement of
an entire process, were examined. "For each challenging and
defending process,- total unit costs (process + end-of-pipe)
were calculated. The capital requirements and annualized
costs of the changed operation were compared with costs
developed for the Reference case discussed in Section Four.
Costing at the Unit Level
A new process may be related to existing operations in one
of three ways:
1. It can be basically interchangeable with part of the
existing plant, with potential for both retrofit and
new plant applications. (Examples: Continuous and
batch digesters, oxygen paper processes, flash and
reverberatory furnaces.>
2. It can be basically incompatible with in-place
facilities and represent an alternative for new
capacity only. (Examples: Hydrometallurgy, dry forming
of paper.)
3. It can be basically additive in nature, with no unit
serving a comparable function in the present process
scheme. (Examples! Byproduct recovery units, spill
containment systems.)
Each of these relationships calls for a different type of
comparison of basic process costs. Table 1 diagrammatically
represents the basis for comparison in each of these
situations.
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Table 1.
Nature of Process Cost Comparisons
Relevant Cost Parameters
Old vs. New
Process Process
Retrofit O&M Capital,
Application O&M
1. inter-
changeable New plant Capital, Capital,
Processes Application O&M O&M
2. Alternative Capital, Capital,
Processes O&M O&M
3. Additive None Capital,
Processes O&M
Values for capital, operation and maintenance (O&M) and
annualized costs were obtained from available engineering
cost estimates. Capital costs represent the installed costs
of process equipment; this figure includes actual component
costs plus expenditures for engineering plans, site
preparation, and construction of necessary auxiliary
facilities. Startup costs and penalties for plant shut-down
time have not been included, because these values tend to be
very plant specific. The operation and maintenance category
includes: materials, taxes and insurance, direct and
indirect labor, and maintenance. "Annualized costs are
defined as O&M costs plus depreciation on capital investment
(calculated at 10 percent of the unpaid principal per year
and 'normalized over the capital lifetime). All costs are
developed for specific plant configurations, or model
plants. Where competing units exhibit different economies
of scale, more than one model size was used.
Sources of process cost estimates included technical
journals> EPA economic impact studies, and other government
publications, such as Bureau of Mines Information Circulars.
The available materials frequently had to be converted to a
form applicable to cost comparison at the unit level. In
some eases, simplifying assumptions were employed. • For
example:
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Operation and maintenance figures are frequently
available only at the plant level. In these instances,
allocations between processes were constructed on the
basis of information contained in the source
literature. In the copper industry, for example,
operating costs were provided for a typical smelter.2
For some of the operating expense items, such as
electric power, chemicals, etc., the significant in-
plant users were delineated; costs could therefore be
attributed to those specific sources. For materials
where detailed information was not available, and for
general expenditures (labor costs, maintenance), costs
were distributed according to the fraction of total
capital investment represented by each unit process.
For some units, estimates of capital and O&M
requirements are simply not available. This is
particularly true for old defending process
technologies, like the open-hearth steel furnace, where
the last new unit of its type was built many years ago.
Cost estimates for these processes were related
directly to estimates obtained for challenging
processes. The comparison between hydrotreating and
drying and sweetening, included in the representative
industry evaluation of petroleum refining, is a case in
point. Operating costs for drying and sweetening can
be expected to be lower than those attributed to a
hydrotreating unit, due to the large hydrogen
requirements of the latter process. Where operational
differences could be clearly indicated in this manner,
costs were estimated in accordance with these
deviations; otherwise, costs were presumed to be
roughly comparable.
End-of-Pipe Costs
The Reference Case for abatement costs is the set of costs
provided for each industrial sector in Sections Two and
Three of this report. These estimates were developed for
current and projected plant inventories using treatment cost
curves which are contained in Reference 3. This material
was supplemented by information obtained from EPA
development documents, technical and trade journals, and
other recent studies on the costs of pollution control. To
make this data base responsive to the specific needs of the
process change investigation, methods had to be devised for
the allocation of Reference Case costs between specific unit
processes, and the translation of waste load reductions
possible through process change into a revised estimate of
end-of-pipe costs.
1-46
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ALLOCATION OF REFERENCE CASE COSTS
Much of the information concerning abatement costs has been
developed only at the plant level, while process changes
frequently affect a single phase of the production process.
Where this dichotomy exists, some technique for apportioning
treatment costs among the processes within a plant is
necessary. The demands on this allocation method increase
with the complexity of the control problem.
In the simplest case, each piece of pollution control
equipment in the treatment scheme can be associated with the
abatement of a particular pollutant generated at a single
source within the plant; e.g., a baghouse for control of
particulates from process A, and a wet scrubber for control
of sulfur oxide from process B. In this instance, the only
information required for cost allocation is the breakdown of
total abatement costs into the expenditures required for
each control component.
More often, however, a pollutant is generated at a number of
sources within a plant, in the case of copper smelting,
sulfur oxide off-gases, are produced in various proportions
during each of the major processing steps (roasting,
furnacing, or conversion}. Some, or all, of these streams
may be combined and sent to the same treatment sequence. If
a control device handles wastes from several plant sources,
some portion of the related costs of control should be
assigned to each of these process sources on the basis of
the fraction of total pollutant loading each contributes.
To calculate these fractions, emissions factors that
establish a general ratio between pollution and output must
be obtained for each relevant process. These factors, when
multiplied by the model plant unit capacity, provide an
estimate of plant waste loads. If roasting is found to
contribute 55 percent of plant sulfur oxides, it is presumed
that it can be assigned 55 percent of the reference case
costs incurred in controlling that waste stream by means of
a scrubber, acid plant, etc. This assumed one-to-one
correspondence is not entirely accurate, due to the fact
that wastes classified in the same general pollutant
category (TSS, particulates) can have widely-divergent
strengths and treatabilities. Nonetheless, the relationship
is a generally accepted rule of thumb which has been
employed in other recent abatement cost studies.*
In a single plant, many different types of pollutants are
generated, and must be controlled by the same abatement
facilities, ideally, some portion of the total costs should
be allocated to each of the pollutants removed by the
treatment system. Formulas of this type have been developed
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for the inorganic and organic, .chemicals industry.s There
were serious limitations, however, in the application, of
this type of analysis to the representative industry
examples.. Detailed breakdowns of model plant waste loads to
the subprocess level are only available-for a limited number
of pollutants. Similarly,, .references., on waste reductions
resulting from process changes often confined their
discussion to one or two major parameters. Consequently, it
was frequently necessary to designate one pollutant as the
dominant concern of industry abatement standards. In the
petroleum industry, for example, BOD removal was concluded
to be the compelling force behind BPT standards; costs for
installation of the required biological- treatment -systems
were therefore .allocated between the various in-plant
sources of that pollutant.
WASTE REDUCTIONS AND REVISED
ABATEMENT .COSTS
The relationship between the reduction .in vaste load and the
reduction in treatment costs is not. proportional. A 10
percent diminution of plant wastes might result in a 5, 8,
or even 12 percent savings on control expenditures,
.depending on factors like the economies of scale involved,
the degree to which control systems are modular,, etc. Two
approaches were utilized to determine the cost reduction
associated with a given level of waste reduction. Where
information estimating this relationship was provided in the
literature, this material was employed. An example of<.this
type of information is .the , study by McGovern*. on waste
reduction in the petroleum industry. In the absence of
specific analysis, end-of-pipe cost savings were measured by
moving down the treatment cost curves7 to a facility size
consistent with the waste load reduction achieved. The
difference between this revised value and Reference case
costs represents the savings. After the revised level of
end-of-rpipe expenditures is determined, allocation of these
costs among unit processes is again undertaken in the manner
outlined above.
The .example of substituting hydrotreating for drying.and
sweetening can be used as an illustration, of these two
procedures. A model plant configuration was chosen" which
included drying and sweetening, using BOD a% a,, surrogate
indicator, the contribution of. this process to the tptal
.refinery waste burden was 45 percent. This, fraction was
, then applied to the estimated total for planet end-qf,-pipe
expenditures, to determine, the costs attributable to.r dry,in9
and sweetening. For the. same planjt,. waste .loads, were
recalculated, utilizing , lower polluting . hydro.tre.ating
1-48
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processes in place of drying and sweetening. The resulting
reduction in waste (42 percent) was converted into its
equivalent effect on end-of-pipe costs (23 percent), using
materials generated by the McGovern study. The percentage
of new total BOD coining from hydrotreating was calculated,
with this fraction applied to the revised cost estimate.
Economic and Environmental
Motivations for Process Change
and the Allocation of Cost Effects
In addition to indicating the substitution potential of new
processing concepts and the pollution control cost savings
resulting from their implementation, the unit cost
comparisons can serve as a basis for speculation about the
motivating force behind a process change decision. In some
cases, e.g., spill containment in the paper industry,
process changes are adopted that provide no economic return
on investment, the only benefit being a reduction in end-of-
pipe costs. changes of this type can truly be said to be
environmentally inspired. Therefore, the costs for
installing and operating the containment system should be
charged to pollution control. conversely, some concepts,
liKe the Bayer-Alcoa aluminum process, have processing
advantages that are sufficient to insure their adoption
before end-of-pipe savings are taken into account. An
approximate line of demarcation beyond which process changes
are economically motivated is an industry's minimum
acceptable rate of return. Since pollution control savings
are incidental to the decision maker in cases providing
greater rates of return, it is inappropriate to attribute
these costs to pollution control.
In between these two clear cases lies a substantial gray
area. Recovery and sale of byproduct H2S and NH3 in a large
petroleum refinery* results in a return of about 3.6 percent
a year; this profit margin would not in itself be sufficient
to justify the investment. However, when environmental
savings are included and the revised treatment system is
contrasted with a pure end-of-pipe approach, the process
becomes very desirable, it would be logical to charge only
part of the process change costs to pollution control.
This concept, although important to recognize, can not be
accurately implemented given the present data base. Minimum
acceptable rates of return vary by several percentage points
among companies in the same industry. A more detailed
analysis of industry is required to delineate these
variances. Similarly, there is a degree of inaccuracy in
the estimations of process cost effects. Even a slight
1-49
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error can negate the accuracy of a carefully-constructed
allocation algorithm. Since only a few of the changes
examined in the representative industry studies lay in this
gray area, none of the savings in basic process costs
stemming from process change were included in the estimates
of control cost reductions. It should be emphasized,
however, that the resulting estimates represent the lower
boundary of possible savings.
Costing at the Industry Level
Even though a particular process change may be shown to be
economically profitable on the basis of the unit level
comparison, the opportunities for its application may not be
fully exploited. It is necessary to establish the industry
context into which process change variables are introduced
because certain characteristics of the industry environment
will constrain or encourage adoption of new process ideas.
Table 2 presents a partial representative list of elements
in the contextual picture that were examined for their
possible influence on the rate of penetration. These
limiting factors can be physical or financial, and not all
of these factors are applicable to each industry considered
in the representative evaluations.
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Table 2.
Some Factors' Affecting Process.Change Potential
Factor Considered
1.- Industry-growth rate
2. Rate of plant obsolescence/
replacement
3. Availability of Input materials
(Ex.- - higher grade ores, low
sulfur fuels, rutlle)
4, Availability of markets for
recovered byproducts.
5. Industry attitude toward process
change
S1re distribution of plants
7. In-place end-of-pipe
abatement facilities
8. Availability of capital
Reason for Consideration
Taken together, these estimations measure the amount of
new capacity being built. If the process change being
considered is an option for new plants only, the
possibilities for penetration are highly control fed by
these variables.
External (outside-tfie Industry) market conditions
frequently constrain -the ability of the industry to
employ particular options. This 1s especially true
of raw material changes'and byproduct recovery-,
and sale.
The historical receptiveness of the Industry to new
process Ideas 1s a general Indicator of the time
frame required for the Industry to'implement new
methods on a large scale.
The profitability of process change is frequently
linked to economies'of scale,
For a plant with an already Installed treatment sys-tem
capable of meeting environmental standards, the utility
of instalMng process change measures designed :to,, reduce
waste load is greatly diminished.
If a particular process change 'requ'lres a large initial
capital investment, its applleation may be restricted to
those firms with higher profit margins and favorable
liquidity position.
-------
Because the possibilities for process substitution in a
given industry are dependent on the complex interactions of
several variables, a scenario approach was utilized to
indicate the range of possible results. Two basic scenarios
were defined: a maximum, and a best-guess estimate of
process change penetration. In the aluminum industry/ for
example, the best-guess market share for the Alcoa smelting
process in 1985 is 8 percent of primary aluminum capacity;
if maximum penetration is assumed, the share increases to 12
percent. The difference between these scenarios is the
assumption of price or other constraints on the availability
of bauxite and energy inputs. In some cases, the maximum
and best-guess penetrations are equivalent.
For each alternative, pollution control costs as modified by
process change were calculated and compared against the
Reference Case estimates. To aggregate costs to the
industry level, a size distribution of existing and future
plants was estimated. The cost studies in Sections Two and
Three of this report assign existing facilities in the plant
inventory to various size classes. For future growth, plant
capacities were developed from information on known
expansion plans and extrapolation of recent size trends.
INDUSTRY SURVEY
This section summarizes the results of an industry survey to
identify those process change opportunities having
implications for pollution control costs. Each industry
considered in the cost studies of Sections Two and Three in
this report were assessed to determine the answers to two
questions: Is the industry a significant contributor to air
and water pollution, and are there opportunities for process
change that can reduce the total cost of abatement? By
comparing estimates of current industry effluent levels with
corresponding national totals, a general measure of
significance was developed. If an industry contributed more
than 1 percent of the national total for any major pollutant
parameter, it was considered to be a significant polluter.
In the case of air emissions, this analysis was supplemented
by comparing industry abatement costs to total abatement
expenditures. Additionally, sectors were judged significant
if they were responsible for highly toxic emissions
(mercury, asbestos, etc.) that pose special abatement
problems.
If the answer to the first questions was affirmative, the
industry was further investigated for process change
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potential. Trade journals and other magazines,. EPA
development documents, previous Cost of Clean Air and water
reports, and other reports on the subject of industrial
pollution control formed the base from which the survey
results were developed. A process change was considered a
viable,alternative only if it had at least been tested at
the pilot plant level.
The results of the industry survey are summarized in
Table 3, with additional information provided in the
industry profiles.10 All process changes discussed in these
profiles have been classified according to the . type of
process change involved, the media affected, and whether or
not the change was included as part of the Reference Case
abatement strategy.
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Table 3.
Summary of Survey Results
Pollution Reduction
Significant Potential Through
Industry Category Polluter?* Process Change?
Fossil Fuels Group
Coal Cleaning 3
Natural Gas
Processing
Petroleum Refining A,W W
Steam Electric
Power A,w A
Foods Group
Feedlots W W
Meat Products
Processing W W
Dairy Products
Processing W W
Seafood Processing W No
Canned & Frozen
Fruits and
vegetables W W
Feed Mills A No
Grain Handling A No
Beet Sugar W No
Cane Sugar W No
Fertilizer/
Phosphates
Construction Materials
Group
Cement A No
Lime
Asphalt A No
Asbestos A,WZ No
Insulation
Fiberglass
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Table 3. (continued)
Summary of Survey Results
Industry Category
Significant
Polluter?*
Pollution Reduction
Potential Through
Process Change?
Metals Group
Aluminum
Copper
Iron and Steel
Lead
Zinc
Other Non-
Ferrous Metals
Electroplating
Chemicals Group
Inorganic
Chemicals
Organic
Chemicals
Miscellaneous
Chemicals
Plastics &
Synthetics
consumer Product
Inputs Group
Timber Products
Processing
Pulp & Paper
Mills
Builders Paper
and Board
Mills
Textiles
Soaps and
Detergents
Leather Tanning
A,W
A
A,W
A*
W
W
W
A,W
W
A,W
A/W
NO
NO
W
NO
NO
W
W
NO
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Table 3. (Continued)
Summary of Survey Results
Pollution Reduction
Significant Potential Through
Industry Category Polluter?* Process Change?
Consumer Product
Inputs Group (con't)
Glass
Rubber
Consumer and
Government Services
Group
Dry Cleaning A A
Municipal
Solid Waste
Disposal A A
Sewage Systems
Key: A-Air; W-Water.
^Sectors are listed if they either pay more than 1% of total
national abatement expenditures11, or generate more than 1%
of the national total of particulates, hydrocarbons, S02,
NOX, BOD, COD, TSS, or oils and greases.12
^Sectors generating highly toxic emissions.
'Sectors found to be nonsignificant polluters were not
investigated further.
For several reasons, process ideas now being considered will
not exert the same degree of influence over an industry's
future planning. Some processes, though promising in
theory, may encounter operational difficulties that
substantially reduce currently anticipated economic
benefits; other changes may be restricted in application to
plants of a certain type, size, or age. Therefore, twenty-
two "candidates" for further study were selected from the
initial list of opportunities as best prospects for
implementation within the time frame and at a level where
they could seriously influence the abatement cost outlook
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for an industry. These changes are categories by type of
process change and by industrial sector in Table 4.
1-57
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r
Wl
oo
Table 4, Sheet 1 of 3.
Process Change Opportunities by Industry and Type Change
A. Materials Changes
Industry
Municipal
Refuse
Disposal
Paper
IndustM'al'
Chemicals
Raw Materials
Old Process New Process
Salt/Lime
Ilmenlte
Trona
Rut lie
Pretreatment Product Specification
Old Process New Process Old Process New Process
High Bright- Lower
ness Brightness
Ilmenlte
Synthetic
Rutlle
Paints
Solvent Base
Powder Base
Petroleum
Refining
Iron and
Steel
Copper
Alum)num
Electric
Ut1litles
Dry Cleaning
Paper
Sulflde Ores Oxide Ores
Bauxite
High Grade
Bauxite
Recycled
Aluminum
Low Grade
Bauxite
Re-l eased
Fines
Disposal
Stack Gas
Scrubb1ng
Sawdust for Pulping
Fiber/Chen/Heat
Downstream Low Sulfur
Control Fuel Oil
Pellet
Agglomeration
Fuel Desulfur-
Izatlon
Batch Digesting Continuous Digesting
-------
I
Ul
vo
Table 4. Sheet 2 of 3.
Process Change Opportunities by Industry and Type Change
B. Process Modifications
Indus-try
Municipal Refuse
Disposal
Industrial
Chemicals
Paints
Petroleum
Refining
Iron and
Steel
Copper
Aluminum
Electroplating
Electric
Utilities
Dry Cleaning
Textiles
Fruits &
Vegetables
Byproduct Recovery
Old Process New Process
0 Isposa1
Disposal
Disposal
Disposal
Sulfur/NH3
SulfuMc Add
Chem1cals Recyci1ng
Recovery of grease
from wool scour1ng/PVA
Rec1amat1 on/Latex
Recovery
Solids Recovery
Revised Process Operations
Old Process New Process
Barometric Con- Surface Condensers
densers In Vac.
Distillation
Reverberatory Flash/Electric
Furnace Furnace/Hydrometal-
lurgy
Counterflow Washing
Once Through Water Recycle
-------
Table 4, Sheet 3 of 3.
Process Change Opportunities by Industry and Type Change
C. Process Substitutions
I
C\
O
Industry
Municipal Refuse
Disposal
Paper
Industrial
Chemicals
Paints
Petroleum Refining
Iron and
Steel
Copper
A1um1num
Electroplating
Electric
UtllItles
Dry Cleaning
Textlles
Fruits & Vegetables
Old Process
Incineration
Kraft Process
Wet Forming
C1!2: Mercury Gel 1
Na2CQ3: Solvay Process
T102: Sulfate Process
Solvent Suspension
Catalytic Cracking
Open-Hearth/E1ectr1c-Arc
Blast Furnace
Hal 1 Process
Bayer-Hal 1 Process
Petroleum Solvents
Mechanical Peeling
New Process
Landf11ls/M1nef11 Is
Dry Forming
Diaphragm Cell Trona Process,
Chloride Process
Electrostatic Suspension
Hydrotreat1ng
Hydrocracklng
Basic-Oxygen Furnace,
Direct Reduction
Alcoa Process,
Monochlorlde Process
Synthetic Solvents
Dry Caustic Peeling
-------
At this point, five industries were selected for in-depth
study: Copper, Aluminum, Pulp and paper, Petroleum Refining,
and inorganic Chemicals. These industries were chosen
because they were industries in which two or more process
changes are concurrently being considered, and collectively,
they contained examples of all the major types of process
change. Additionally, it was felt that the data base of
process change information in these areas was rich enough to
permit detailed analysis. Short summaries of these
representative evaluations are provided below.
REPRESENTATIVE INDUSTRY EVALUATIONS
Copper
The main environmental problem facing the copper industry is
the control of sulfur dioxide contained in the off-gases
from reverberatory furnaces used in primary smelting
operations. Because of the very weak concentration of these
gases {usually less than 1 percent sulfur dioxide by
volume), they cannot be treated effectively through
conversion into sulfuric acid. The costs of abatement are
consequently very substantial; expenditures on control
measures in a recent" year, for example, represented 22
percent of total capital investment,53 As a result, U.S.
producers have greatly increased their interest in
processing innovations that have the potential to reduce the
•industry's control burden. Research efforts have been
directed in support of three main process alternatives:
flash furnaces, electric furnaces, and hydrometallurgical
smelting. The first American commercial scale example of
each technology has either been installed within the past 5
years or is currently under construction.
PROCESS CHANGES
Flash smelting is a commercially proven technology that has
been employed extensively in Europe and Japan for over a
decade.; Off-gases from the furnace attain sulfur dioxide
concentrations of 10-14.percent and can be easily handled by
an acid plant. * By combining treatment of all plant
emissions in a single facility, a 1,500-ton of concentrates
per day smelter can achieve an estimated 11 percent
reduction in capital requirements, and a 27.2 percent
reduction in the annualized costs of pollution control.
Although process costs for the flash furnace are somewhat
higher due to additional slag processing requirements,
overall unit costs figure to be 10-20 percent less than
1-61
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those estimated for a reverberatory furnace of comparable
size. On this basis, it is projected that up to 50 percent
of new pyrometallurgical capacity requirements in 1975-80,
and 75 percent in 1981-85, will be supplied by flash
smelters. if recently proposed new source performance
standards** are promulgated which would specify more
stringent and much more costly controls on reverberatory
furnaces, the rate of penetration by the challenging
technology will be further accelerated.
Electric furnaces claim a dual advantage over their
reverberatory counterparts; they increase the sulfur dioxide
concentration of off-gases by eliminating combustion gases
within the furnace, and they exhibit a higher thermal
efficiency. Two existing U.S. smelters have already made
the switch to this technology as part of their abatement
strategy. The smelting site must be close to a source of
cheap electric power if the process is to be economically
competitive. This fact alone will seriously restrict
application of this technology in some of the remote and
arid Western mining areas, in addition, industry spokesmen
have frequently expressed doubts19 abopt the operating
reliability of electric furnaces, consequently, the option
is viewed as a less preferred alternative, with its
substitution possibilities limited to areas where the cost
of power is low enough to override other concerns.
Two hydrometallurgical smelting techniques, the Arbiter and
Cy-Met processes, are in advanced stages of development.
Major questions affecting evaluation of the substitution
potential of these concepts concern the time frame in which
successful scale-up can occur, and the extent to which
current process cost estimates will accurately represent
commercial scale results. If the operating economics
achieved during pilot plant operations can be maintained,
hydrometallurgy can reduce annual process costs by up to 25
percent; in addition, pollution control costs are
practically zero, requiring only some form of storage or
disposal for the sulfate solid waste which is produced.
Even after successful scale-up, substitution will proceed
slowly, hydrometallurgy will constitute no more than 4
percent total primary capacity by 1980, and 12 percent by
1985.
in addition to these basic process changes, it is necessary
to assess the market opportunities for sale of the byproduct
sulfuric acid generated during the control process. If
there are profitable opportunities present, some of the
estimated costs of pollution control can be defrayed;
contrarily, if no opportunities exist, the costs of
neutralization and disposal of the byproduct should be
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counted as an additional abatement expense. Competition for
markets will be very strong, and smelter acids face one
major disadvantage by being far from their primary users.
However, smelters can take advantage of opportunities within
the industry- to use H2SO4 as a leaching agent to extract
copper from oxide ores and mine tailings•»« they can also
Increase their marketability by selling acid at a price well
below the going market rate. Based on these parameters,
four possible price/market opportunity scenarios were
examined. In the combination of circumstances deemed most
likely to occur, it was assumed that 12 of the primary
smelters with acid plants will be able to sell their acid at
an average price well below market rate, resulting in
revenue of over $30 million per year.
INDUSTRY EFFECTS
The percentage reduction in pollution control costs
resulting from implementation of the process changes
discussed above is summarized in Table 5. The bulk of the
savings attained through 1980 is the result of byproduct
acid sales- the major increase in savings estimated for 1985
is attributable to greater application of flash and
hydrometallurgical smelting technologies.
Table 5.
Copper industry Abatement Cost
Reduction Through Process Change
Percentage Change from Reference
Case Abatement Costs (with
Process Change)*
1980 1985
Cumulative Investment -8.0% -18.1%
(from 1972)
Annual Costs -15.6% -26.5%
* From Scenario 2 - air control costs only.
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Aluminum
The two pollutants of primary concern to the aluminum
industry are red mud from the refining of bauxite, and
fluorides from the reduction of alumina to aluminum. Red
mud is usually impounded in an evaporation pond,.and it is
thus possible to achieve zero discharge.*7 Fluoride is
associated with the Hall reduction process and is about 70
percent controlled to date. Existing facilities may have to
install expensive secondary, roof scrubbers to achieve the
proposed standards of 90 percent capture.
A new source performance standard of 95.5 percent removal is
achievable by the Alcoa Dry Scrubbing Process.1* Other types
of cells will require expensive secondary scrubbers. Thus,
pollution control factors are prompting consideration of
alternative technologies.
PROCESS CHANGES
Three process substitutions may have an effect on pollution
control costs in the aluminum industry. The most direct
factor would be an increase in the capacity to recycle scrap
aluminum. Substitution of the Bayer-Alcoa»» process for the
Bayer-Hall would decrease the unit pollution control costs
from primary smelting by 73 percent. Non-electrolytic
processes, like the Monochloride20 process would probably
increase the unit cost of pollution control by 13 percent.
Such-a technology might be considered in the future because
of energy and bauxite constraints.
INDUSTRY-WOE COST REDUCTION
The penetration of new technologies is related to the growth
rate of the industry, which in turn is related to the
industry's pollution control cost. The absence of
constraints on raw material availability or pollution1, output
tends to preserve the present technology. Moderately-
constrained growth, tends to encourage the search for less-
costly alternatives. However, for purposes of comparison, a
7 percent growth scenario with moderate' penetration-of
recycling and the Bayer-Alcoa process is .presented here.
She costs resulting from a Bayer-JHall/Bayerr-ALcoa/recycling
mix of 77 percent/1 percent/22 percent '.-in 1980 and-68
percent/ 8 percent/24 percent mix in ;i985*.are-shown .iir-Table
6; note the lover capital and'annuallzed operating figures
for the process change case. The-large Increase'in savings
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is due to the increased coverage of recycling and the Bayer-
Alcoa orocess.
Alcoa process
Table 6.
Aluminum Industry Abatement Cost Reduction Through
Process Change
Percentage Change from Reference
Case Abatement costs (vith
Process Change)*
1980 1985
Cumulative Investment (-1.8%) (-9.6%)
(from 1972)
Annual Costs (-9.0%) (-9.0%)
» From Scenario 2 - air and water control costs.
Pulp and Paper industry
The paper industry discharged 2.47 billion gallons of water
in 1972, even though it was recycled over three times during
processing." About 60 percent of that water was used in
direct process contact, higher than any other industrial
activity. This leads to a discharge of about 2.2 million
tons per year each of BOD and of suspended solids.2* The
industry spent 30 percent of its capital investment, the
largest percentage of any manufacturing industry, in an
effort to meet pollution control standards.2'
PROCESS CHANGES
The pulp and paper industry has several short-term and
several long-term water pollution control savings
opportunities through process change. In the short-term
(1975-1980), process modifications and product
specifications changes can have a significant effect.
process modifications designed to contain, spills, recover
fiber, process chemical and energy have some savings
involved. They range from a 20 percent savings per ton to a
65 percent savings per ton where applicable.** The increased
use of lower brightness papers can result in a 67 percent
saving in pollution control costs where applicable.25
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Unfortunately, the applicability of these changes is limited
to moderately old plants and the industrial tissue market,
so that the overall savings potential is decreased.
The long-term (1980-1985) process substitutions of oxygen
processes and dry forming, appear to have a substantial
effect on the cost of pollution control.2*, 27 xhe use of
oxygen for bleachingt waste treatment, and process liquor
recovery result in a 53 percent savings in water pollution
control costs. Dry forming of paper eliminates water
pollution control costs where applicable. These process
substitutions appear to have a wide range of applicability,
but are limited to new capacity implementation.
INDUSTRY-WIDE COST REDUCTION
If it is assumed that 30 percent existing capacity and all
of the new capacity before 1980 will take advantage of the
near-term savings, and that 50 percent of new capacity after
1980 will take advantage of the long-term savings, the paper
industry can achieve water pollution control costs savings
as shown in Table 7.
Table 7.
Abatement Cost Reduction Through Process Change
Pulp and Paper Industry, Water Pollution Costs
Percentage Change from Reference
Case Abatement Costs (with
Process Change)1
1980 1985
Cumulative Investment (-7.4%) (-14.4%)
(from 1972)
Annualized Cost (-17.6%) (-27.4%)
>• From Scenario 2 - water control costs only.
Petroleum Refining
The petroleum industry has made a number of in-plant
improvements in the past designed to improve water effluent
1-66
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characteristics and increase water reuse and recycle rates.
These efforts have been fruitful, with the water reuse ratio
in the industry almost doubling in 'the last 20 years;
nonetheless, refineries face substantial future outlays for
pollution control systems. in-plant process changes
designed to minimize end-of-pipe treatment requirements are
likely to be a major part of the overall abatement strategy
selected.
PROCESS CHANGES
Many proposed changes affect operations at the subprocess
level, and can achieve substantial reductions in plant waste
loadings for a fairly small initial capital outlay. An
example of this type of process modification is the recovery
of phenols produced during catalytic cracking. Removal of
•this pollutant can reduce total plant BOD by 7 percent and
end of pipe costs by 5 percent. Additionally, there are
economic advantages arising from the recovery of free oils
entrained in the wastewaters; from the cracker. Analysis of
the effects of installing such a unit in three model
refinery configurations*», z» indicates that this change
could be profitable for a group of refineries comprising 65
percent of current total capacity.
Recovery of byproduct sulphur and ammonia from refinery sour
waters has been a widely practiced technique in recent
years, and is recommended in the EPA Development Document3*
as part of BPT abatement strategy. Analysis in this section
Of the study focused on estimation of the cost-offsetting
benefits achievable through sales of recovered materials.
Available process cost data on typical stripping and
recovery facilities3* demonstrates a potential for returns
on investment of up to 20 percent per year, provided that
alj byproduct can be sold. For both sulphur and ammonia, a
detailed analysis** was made of market conditions; and an
assessment given of the competitive opportunities available
to refinery producers. Results of this investigation
indicated that sales of the ammonia and sulphur generated at
current production levels could translate into revenues of
$62 and $50 million, respectively, provided that maximum
sour water recovery was practiced using dual stage stripping
techniques. in addition, maximum processing resulted in 45
percent reductions in typical refinery BOD loadings, with a
corresponding pollution control savings of 25 percent.
Greater use of hydrocracking has often been suggested as a
way to reduce air and water pollution problems resulting
from catalytic cracking operations. Although hydrocracking
units offer greater operational flexibility and increased
1-67
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product yields in addition to reducing pollution problems,
industry adoption of the process since its development in
the 1960's has been very cautious. The major obstacle to
implementation has been the higher costs associated with the
challenging processes- this gap has recently widened due to
sharp increases in hydrocracking input prices. As a result,
a great deal of effort has been funneled into modification
and improvement of the defending process. Major
developments include use of new catalysts requiring less
frequent regeneration, and the installation of carbon
monoxide waste heat boilers. These recent events indicate a
resurgence of expansion to catalytic cracking, with a
resulting increase in end-of-pipe requirements and costs.
The use of hydroprocessing techniques has been rapidly
increasing over the past decade, growing at an average of 8
percent per year. The addition of hydro-desulfurization
steps to refinery operations reduces the waste burden of
sulphur, nitrogen, and metals requiring end-of-pipe
treatment, and concentrates these constitutents in sour
water streams which can be readily processed for byproduct
recovery. In other areas of refinery, hydrotreating
processing can replace older, dirtier processes like acid
treating, or drying and sweetening. Although the impetus
for greater use of the processes is still strong, there are
definite limitations on further extension of these processes
in. refineries which have already exhausted their in-plant
hydrogen surplus, since hydrogen production facilities are
an expensive capital cost item.33 Further penetration by
this process is likely to occur at a slower rate.
INDUSTRY-WIDE COST EFFECTS
It was very difficult to quantify the pollution cost savings
possible in the petroleum refining sector. If all process
changes discussed in this chapter were implemented in a
specific refinery, waste load reductions of up to 60 percent
could be achieved. There are many limitations restricting
the substitution possibilities which exist; and, given the
diverse structure of the industry, it was hard to determine
the number of plants that were actually constrained.
Nonetheless, it is believed that these various concepts
could be introduced at a level sufficient to reduce average-
waste loadings of BOD by 20 percent. This corresponds to
about 12 percent reduction in end-of-pipe capital and O&M
costs. Additional revenue is added from byproduct recovery.
Percentage estimates are summarized in Table 8.
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Table 8.
Petroleum Refining Abatement Cost Reduction Through
Process Change
Percentage Change from Reference Case
Abatement Costs (with Process
Change)*
1980 1985
Cumulative Investment (-12.0%) (-12.0%) (from
1972)
Annual Costs (37.3%) (-33.4%)
1 From Scenario 2 - water control costs only.
Inorganic Chemicals
Chemical and allied products rank first in industrial water
consumption, with inorganics accounting for over one-fifth
of this use.3* The vast majority (72.3 percent) of water
intake by inorganic chemicals is for cooling, with only 11.1
percent used as process water. The principal wastes are
inorganic salts including chlorides, sulfates, carbonates,
etc; other significant wastes include ore tailings and
metals, such as chromium, mercury, lead and iron. In EPA's
evaluation of water-borne pollution from 25 major
inorganics, over 99 percent of the waste load was attributed
to five products: sodium chloride (38.3 percent), sodium
carbonate (35.6 percent), titanium dioxide (17.1 percent),
and the coproducts chlorine/ sodium hydroxide (8.5
percent).3s Each of these large waste products was evaluated
for process change potential.
SODIUM CHLORIDE
Sodium chloride waste is usually deep-welled or stored, and
does not pose a difficult water pollution problem.
SODIUM CARBONATE
There are two manufacturing processes for sodium carbonate
(or soda ash). The older solvay process synthesizes sodium
1-69
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carbonate from salt and limestone, with ammonia serving as a
chemical intermediary. Approximately 1.5 kilograms of
dissolved solid wastes are generated per kilogram of
product.5* The dissolved solids are about two-thirds calcium
chloride, with the remainder mainly unreacted salt. The
solids have slight market value and are usually discharged
into surrounding water bodies. In contrast, the newer
process utilizes natural ore, called Trona, or lake brines
containing burkeite. Neither of these alternatives
generates a troublesome waste, since ore tailings and brine
wastes can be returned to the mine or lake.
The Solvay process has been steadily losing ground. No
Solvay plants have been built since 1935. From 1960 to 1972
Solvay plan participation in soda ash production declined
from 85 percent to 58 percent. The one advantage still held
by the Solvay plants is geographic location. The Trona and
lake brine deposits are concetrated in Wyoming and
California, whereas market concentrations lie in the East.
As a result, the natural ores have only gradually displaced
the Solvay plants; pollution control requirements promise to
speed this displacement. Partially due to such
considerations, two Solvay plants closed between 1972 and
1974, further reducing process participation to 46 percent.
The extent of Solvay process participation is the principal
factor determining the aggregate water pollution control
cost for sodium carbonate production. The anticipated
closing of two of the smaller plants by 1977 will cut Solvay
capacity by one-quarter, and reduce abatement capital and
annualized costs by 28 percent (BPT and BAT costs are the
same for this product).
Another important consideration is whether to recover a
portion of the waste calcium chloride for byproduct sale.
Assuming there is a sufficient market, recovery and sale of
20 percent of the calcium chloride would lead to an 81
percent reduction in annualized costs, but would necessitate
a 206 percent increase in capital requirements.
TITANIUM DIOXIDE
There is competition both among processes and raw materials
for the production of titanium dioxide. The older, sulfate
process utilizes a more abundant, less pure ore, called
ilmenite. Until recently, the newer chloride process has
been restricted to the use of the purer rutile ore. Since
the reserve of the latter is quite limited, 20 to 25 years
at present consumption rates, raw material costs have played
a large role in process selection. In spite of the rutile
constraint, process efficiencies achieved with the chloride
1-70
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process have enabled it to increase its production share to
46 percent since its introduction in the mid-1950's. No new
sulfate plants have been built since 1956.
Recent sharp increases in rutile and chlorine prices have
tended to slow the encroachment of the chloride process.
However, environmental considerations are lending a new
competitive edge to the chloride process. The sulfate
process generates 4 to 5 times the amount of waste per
kilogram as compared with only 1.2 times for the chloride
process.", =»* A significant aspect of the difference in
waste load is the use of a purer raw material by the
chloride process. The sulfate waste is mainly spent
sulfuric acid and ferrous sulfate (copperas). The waste
from the chloride process is primarily ferric chloride.
Abatement capital requirements for the chloride process are
only 56 percent of those for the sulfate process for BPT,
and 65 percent for BAT. Similarly, annualized costs for the
chloride process are 40 percent of those for the sulfate
process for BPT, and 59 percent for BAT.3*
Byproduct recovery is an important aspect of the pollution
control opportunities for titanium dioxide. Ferric chloride
from the chloride process is already being recovered and
sold for water treatment by some companies, and can
alternatively be converted to chlorine for recycling and to
iron oxide for sale, sulfate process waste acid can either
be recovered and recycled or converted to gypsum, and then
sold. Acid recovery and recycle in the sulfate process
alone enables a 22.4 percent reduction in the total titanium
dioxide accumulated capital expenditures for abatement
through 1985, and a 23.2 percent reduction in annualized
abatement costs in 1985.
CHLORINE
Environmental considerations have acted to reverse an
ongoing shift among process alternatives for chlorine
production. worldwide usage of the mercury cell
electrolysis process for chlorine substantially exceeds that
of the competing diaphragm cell; in the United States, the
latter has always been predominant. Nevertheless, mercury
cell participation in U.S. chlorine manufacture had been on
the rise, increasing from 4.3 percent of production in 1946
to 28.6 percent in 1968. At that point, concern regarding
mercury emissions to the environment surfaced. Since then,
some existing plants have converted from mercury cells to
diaphragm cells, and little new mercury cell capacity is
being added. By 1973, mercury cell participation had
declined to 24.6.*o
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The wastes from the mercury and diaphragm cells are similar:
brine impurities, unreacted salt, weak caustic, waste
sulfuric acid, sodium hydrochlorate and sodium bicarbonate.
However, the mercury cell waste also contains a limited
quantity of mercury. The need for strict control of the
mercury content causes significant abatement cost
differences between the two cell-types. The diaphragm cell
abatement capital requirements for BPT and BAT are only 13
percent and 36.4 percent, respectively, of those for the
mercury cell. Likewise, the annualized capital cost
comparison is 25.7 percent and 44.9 percent for BPT and
BAT.41 As a result, the ongoing shift from the mercury cell,
if no new mercury cell plants are built, will reduce the
accumulated capital expenditures through 1985 by 16.4
percent, relative to the Reference Case, and 1985 annualized
costs for pollution control by 12.8 percent. It should be
noted that a great deal of developmental work is underway to
bring mercury cell control costs into line with those of the
diaphragm cell.
INDUSTRY-WIDE COST REDUCTION
The industry-wide implications of the process change
opportunities for the four chemicals, sodium carbonate,
titanium dioxide, and chlorine/caustic, are presented in
Table 9. The four chemicals account for more than half the
abatement capital and annualized cost requirements for the
entire industry. Presuming other chemicals have similar
process change opportunities, a 38.1 percent reduction in
abatement annualized costs in 1980 can be achieved and a
25.0 percent reduction in 1985. A slight (2.5 percent)
reduction can be made in cumulative capital expenditures.
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Table 9.
inorganic Chemicals Abatement Cost Reduction
Through Process Change
Percentage Change from Reference
Case Abatement costs (with
Process Change)1
1980 1985
Cumulative investment (0%) ! (-2.5%)
(from 1972)
Annual Costs (-38.1%) (-25.0%)
* From Scenario 2 - water control costs only.
GENERALIZATIONS
Range of Pollution
Control Savings
The range of pollution control savings through process
modifications varies among industry and category types of
process change. This variation is to be expected if one
considers the specific implementation limits on any given
process change. Financial, technical, and physical
constraints to process change vary considerably between
industries and within each industry. The highly-specific
nature of process changes and the varied nature of the
industrial climate in vhich they are imbedded inhibits
generalization.
Substantial savings have been demonstrated in the
representative industry studies. These savings vary
considerably from industry to industry as shown in Table 10.
On the capital side, they range from a savings of 2.5
percent in inorganics to 14.5 percent in copper. The
annualized savings are somewhat larger than capital savings,
ranging from 11 percent in the aluminum industry to 30
percent in the petroleum industry. The advantages, accrued
through process change within the representative industry
studies may serve as an indication of the range of potential
savings in a similar situation in another industry. it is
worthwhile to emphasize the approximative nature of the
following generalizations- they are made to facilitate
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estimation of the overall effects of process change, and
they do not represent precise assessments of the situation
in a given industry.
1-74
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Table 1O.
Abatement Cost Impact of Process Change - 1985
(% Change from Reference Case: Cumulative Capital/Annualized Cost)
Process Industry
Change (Media)
* Materials Change
Raw Materials
Product Specification
• Process
Modification
Revised Operations
Byproduct
Recovery
« Process Substi-
tution
Copper Aluminum
(Air) (Air/Water)
-3.2/-3,3
Recycl 1ng
__
0/-21.8
_
Sulfurlc
Add
-14.5/-13.1 -6.3/-J.7
Hydro- Alcoa
metal lurgy/
flash
furnace/
electric
furnace
Monochlo-
rlde
Pulp & Paper
(Water)
-0.1/-O.3
__
Reduced
brightness
-5.0/-21 .5
Spill
Containment
Fiber/Chem/Heat
-5.O/-7.O
Oxygen
processing
Dry Forming
Petroleum Inorganics
(Water) (Water)
-2.2/-2.1
Trona (Na2C03)
Rut lie (T1O2)
__
-7.0/-25.0 -M3.9/-9.9
Phenol
Recycle
Sulfur/Ammon Calcium chloride
(Na2C03)
Sulfurlc add (T102)
-5.O/-5.0 -14.2/-13.O
Hydrotreatlng Chloride process
(T102)
Hydrocrack 1 ng Diaphragm Cell (<
Industry Totals'
-14.5/-34.9 -9.5/-11.0 -10.1/-28.8
-12.0/-30.O -2.5/-25.0
Mean 9.72/25,9
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Section Two
THE ECONOMICS OF AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
Chapter 1
Summary
The purpose of setting the ambient and emission standards
associated with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970
(henceforth referred to as the Clean Air Act) is to protect
human health and reduce or prevent the other damages
associated with polluted air. To accomplish these goals,
the emissions released to the environment must be reduced
far below their 1971 levels.
The estimated net emissions of the five criteria air
pollutants in 1971, 1975, and 1985 are shown in Table 1.
Also shown in the table are the control efficiencies by
pollutant for the three years. Note that particulates were
controlled to a large extent even in 1971; quite often these
controls existed for economic reasons. That is, plants
recovered economically-valuable metals and materials from
the particulate wastes.
2-1
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Table 1.
National Trend In Emission Levels
Sources and Pollutants
Net Emissions'
(Millions MT)
1971
Al 1 Sources
Participates 31.6
Sulfur Oxides 3O.O
Nitrogen Oxides 16.3
Hydrocarbons 14.3
Carbon Monoxide 71.2
Industrial & Electrical
Generation
Partlculates 31.0
Sulfur Oxides 29.3
Nitrogen Oxides 7.8
Hydrocarbons 5.2
Carbon Monoxide 1O.4
1975
16.8
22.8
17.6
10.5
55. 1
16. 1
22.3
9.3
4.2
7.O
19BS
5.9
18.6
29.5
7.O
28.7
4.8
17.7
14.2
3.5
6.5
Control'
Efficiency (%)
1971 1975 1985
64.9 85.0 95.6
25.4 51.9 71.2
O 1.4 3.O
55.0
9.9 16.8 20.0
65.5 85.7 96.2
25.8 59.4 72.O
0.2 3.6 5.7
36.3 53.5 70.9
43.O 66.1 76.2
Emissions after control devices have been Installed.
Percent of unabated emissions that are eliminated by the control devices.
-------
In order to bring about these reductions in air emissions,
businesses and consumers must make expenditures to install
pollution control devices, institute process changes switch
fuels, and operate and maintain these devices. Governments
must allocate expenditures to regulate and monitor pollution
sources, control their own emissions, and perform research.
Table 2 shows the estimated total expenditures for air
pollution control brought about by the Clean Air Act during
the 1971-85 period. Detailed information on standards and
compliance schedule assumptions are presented throughout the
remainder of this section of the report.
Table 2.
Accumulated Estimated Air pollution Expenditures
(In Billions of 1975 Dollars)
1971-1985 1976-1985
Total Total
Costs Costs
industries 143.1 134.3
Transportation* 93.1 75.7
Government 5.1 5.1
Totals 236.6 215.1
Note: Government costs for the period 1971-1975 were
not estimates.
» Mainly the costs for automobile emission controls that
are paid for directly by the car owners.
The pattern that expenditures will take during the 1971-85
period depends not only on regulations, but also on the
pattern of compliance by businesses, automobile users, and
local governments. If compliance with present Federal
regulations is assumed, the time path of expenditures during
the 1971-85 period is shown by the Legislated Timing line in
Figure 1- note the peaking of investment expenditures in
1975.
2-3
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Figure 1.
Air Pollution Abatement investment Costs by Industrial
Sources other than Electric Utilities
2-4
-------
Surveys by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Department
of Commerce do not indicate such high past' and planned
investment on the part of businesses during the 1971-75
period. Therefore, some more extended pattern of
expenditures will probably occur. The timing of air
pollution expenditures made by EPA and CEQ in the 1975
report entitled The Economic Impact ojE Pollution Control;
Macroeconomic and Industry Report's March 1975, prepared by
Chase Econometric Associates, Inc., is assumed for this
report. The dark lines on Figure 1 show the more probable
expenditure pattern.
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
The air pollution abatement expenditures related to P. L.
91-604 made by governments at all levels are shown in Table
3. Federal expenditures include those for state and local
program assistance, research, abatement control, manpower
development, and control of pollution from Federal
facilities. The future estimates for expenditures by state
and local governments include the functional .areas of
enforcement, engineering services, technical services, and
management.
2-5
-------
Table 3.
Government Spending for Air Pollution Control,
1976-85.
(In Billions of 1975 Dollars)
year EPA Other Federal State Local Total
1976 112 186 120 418
1976T 28 46 30 104
1977 147 209 140 496
1978 152 209 140 501
1979 152 209 150 510
1980 152 209 150 510
1981 152 209 150 510
1982 152 209 150 510
1983 152 209 150 510
1984 152 209 150 510
1985 152 209 150 510
5,089
2-6
-------
TRANSPORTATION EXPENDITURES
Two major types of transportation control costs were
estimated:
• Costs needed to meet Federal emissions standards for
autos, trucks, and aircraft.
• Costs that residents of certain cities must pay to
finance programs that will reduce transportation-
generated emissions to achieve Federal ambient
standards.
In this report, the former costs are mobile source costs arid
the latter are treated as Transportation Control Plan (TCPV
costs. Table 4 shows these costs in summary fashion for the
appropriate years. As is evident from the table, the TCP
costs are very small in comparison with the total mobile
source controls. The interrelationship between the two
control strategies is complex; as emissions from individual
vehicles are reduced, the relative impact of the
transportation controls is also reduced.
2-7
-------
fable 4.
Transportation Control Costs1
(In Billions of 1975 Dollars)
Mobile Source Costs TCP
Year investment O&M Total Costs
1968-85
Totals 51.77
1976-85
Totals 45.42
37.55
89.32
3.76
Total Yearly
Costs
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
0.09
0.09
0.49
0.58
0.55
1.48
1.08
1.99
2.68
2.81
2.50
2.71
4.19
6.12
6.07
6.12
6.22
6.00
0.48
0.80
0.86
1.20
1.51
1.98
2.42
1.78
1.19
1.53
1.81
2.04
2.50
2.77
3.15
3.44
3.79
4.30
0.57
0.89
1.35
1.78
2.06
3.46
3.50
3.77
3,87
4.34
4.31
4.75
6.69
8.89
9.22
9.56
10.01
10.30
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.34
0.44
0.32
0.34
0.35
0.37
0.40
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.57
0.89
1.35
1.78
2,06
3.46
3.50
3.77
4.21
4.78
4.63
5.09
7.04
9.26
9.62
9.95
10.41
10.71
93.08
26.52 71.94 3.76 75.7
Interest was not applied to investment.
INDUSTRIAL EXPENDITURES
Costs for industries to comply with Federal emission
standards (for new plants or facilities in specially-
designated industries) and State Implementation Plans (SIP)
required to meet Federal ambient air standards were
estimated for over 40 separate industries, such as Iron and
Steel manufacture, Petroleum Refining, and Kraft Paper
production. Table 5 shows the estimated expenditures for
aggregations of these industrial sectors.
2-8
-------
Table 5.
Industrial Air Pollution Control Expenditures
(In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
vo
Industry
Coal Cleaning
Coal Gasification
Natural Gas Processing
Feed Mills
Kraft Pulp Mil Is
NSSC Mills
Printing
Chlor-Alkali Mercury Cell
Nitric Acid
Paint Manufacture
Phosphate Fertilizer
Nonferti1izer Phosphate
SulfuMc Acid
Petrochemicals
Petroleum1
Ferroalloy
Iron & Steel'
Iron Foundaries
Steel Foundaries
Primary Aluminum
Secondary Aluminum
Primary Copper
Secondary Brass & Bronze
Primary Lead
Secondary Lead
Primary Zinc
Secondary Z1nc
Asbestos
Asphalt Concrete
Investment
27.84
12O.32
149.12
2.O27.08
2,342.13
313.44
44. O3
23.21
8O.23
34.47
175. 14
1O. 6O
721.9O
48.51
339.28
509.66
269.23
2.504.64
35.64
1.21O.84
21 .67
47. 5O
6.33
64.49
2.52
768.42
664. 19
1971-85
Accumulated Expenditures
Annual ized
Capital
2,
3,
1,
3,
2,
1 ,
1 ,
33
68
2O9
737
542
431
€8
48
119
59
212
16
2OO
55
598
867
538
110
48
1O3
29
80
8
145
3
669
181
.82
. 19
.73
. 18
.82
.00
.71
.60
.79
.99
.04
.22
.52
.33
.49
. 16
.46
.06
.23
. 1 1
.70
.05
.77
.36
.15
.03
.97
O&M
15
53
279
1,058
4,253
581
57
56
180
77
358
6
718
472
154
1,732
45
4, 185
55
1.3O9
48
45
.15
124
7
48
2.O29
.90
.05
.06
.76.
.08
. 12
,67
.38
.31
.95
.47
.07
.77
.84
.22
.07
.33
.23
. 16
. 19
.33
. 19
. 16
. 13
.30
.85
. 12
Investment
13
12O
51
941
1 ,313
13O
21
12
37
11
97
5.
247.
25
1 ,33O.
117.
3.30O,
188.
18.
699
11 .
378.
6.
13.
4.
42.
1 .
3.
161 ,
.56
.32
.38
.70
.41
. 1O
.51
.09
. 16
.88
.40
.66
.89
.90
.00
. 14
.OO
.48
.72
.06
83
.67
.29
.56
.57
SO
.32
.35
.49
1976-85
Annua 1
ized
Capi tal
3O.
68.
18O.
2,411.
3,117.
367.
6O.
42.
1O5.
51.
188.
14.
1.O36.
48.
3.O25.
519.
13,250.
749.
428.
2,734.
49.
1 ,817.
25.
68.
8.
137.
2.
1,287.
1.O11 .
13
19
1O
26
88
73
14
38
54
73
31
47
32
93
OO
O2
00
OS
26
7O
26
81
58
78
29
7O
78
7O
30
O&M
14. 07
53.05
242.84
936.91
3.8O1 .29
517.44
51 .22
49^.85
162. 15
67.64
323 . 69
5.42
636.97
422. 8O
3.250.0O
135.25
3.870.0O
1.5O9.O1
4O.34
3.552.O3
49.26
1 . 136.63
41 .94
38.48
13.33
1O7.62
6.41
39. 18
1 ,771 .61
-------
Table 5.
Industrial A1r Pollution Control Expenditures
(In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
I Industry Investment
1-1
O
Cement 940.18
Lime Manufacture 330.01
Clay Construction Products 80.85
Surface Coatings 514.40
Steam Electric Power Plants'
Solid Waste Disposal 1,948.38
Sewage Sludge Incineration 185.30
Gram Handling 2,978.52
Dry Cleaning 242.65
Commercial Heating 3,756.23
Industrial Heating 11,012.19
Totals
1971-85
Accumulated Expenditures
Annual ized
Capital
1 ,
3.
3,
4.
14.
287
474
148,
870,
046,
228.
269.
346.
148.
924.
.97
.83
.65
. 16
.92
6O
14
39
98
53
1
3
4
7
5
O&M
,363
111
194
,228
,658
153
397
,556
,446
.63
.59
.49
.31
.43
.42
.49
O
.87
.88
Investment
328.
110.
. 17.
217.
18, 16O.
634.
111,
1 , 205 .
8O.
1,737,
5.0O6,
94
27
63
72
00
68
4O
35
44
49
32
36.917.OO
1976-85
Annual Ized
Capital
1
24
2
2
3
13
,130
405
126
742
,65O
,602
204.
,962,
3O2.
,637.
, 124.
.48
,24
.73
.17
.00
. 15
.30
.16
.74
.61
39
1
2
18
4
6
4
O&M
,2O5
98
157
.890,
,700
,098,
141 ,
354.
,647.
. 85O.
.45
.S3
.57
.89
.OO
.26
.86
58
O
.87
12
82,725.00 61.9OO.OO
1 Figures based upon detailed independent studies of tnese industries which were recently completed for EPA by various
consultants, as described In the Industry summaries.
-------
COMPARISON OF COST ESTIMATES TO
THE LAST COST OF CLEAN AIR REPORT
For those industries analyzed in both reports, Table 6
presents a comparison of cost estimates, in as nearly
comparable terms as possible. The last Cost of Clean Air
Report (COCA) stated costs in fiscal years, whereas, this
report deals with years on a calendar basis. The estimates
from COCA were inflated to 1975 dollars in this listing.
Several more industries have been included in this study,
and are therefore not listed in Table 6.
2-11
-------
Table 6.
Cost of Air Pollution Abatement
(Millions of 1975 Dollars)
COCA (FY71-FY79) SEAS (1972-1979)
Investment O&M Investment O&M
Aluminum
Primary
Secondary
Asbestos
Coal Cleaning
Copper-Primary
Dry Cleaning
Feed Mills
Grain Handling
Lead
Primary
Secondary
Lime Manufacture
Natural Gas
Processing
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizer
Portland Cement
Pulp & Paper
Kraft
NSSC
Sewage Sludge
Incineration
Sulfuric Acid
zinc
Primary
Secondary
278.9
256.6
22.3
13.6
18.9
589.2
172.8
652.4
182.0
45.8
32.8
13.0
73.2
108.0
42.5
23.2
532.8
312.8
280.8
32.0
75.2
488.6
41.4
38.9
2.5
280.5
276.6
3.9
2.8
1.8
75.6
-
38.8
24.0
4.2
2.9
1.3
7.0
20.0
10.4
8.2
95.8
69.2
58.8
10.4
8.7
51.5
4.0
3.5
0.5
2,070.3
2,040.2
30.1
15.0
27.3
1,177.5
130.3
1,804.4
2,134.6
46.7
42.1
4.6
320.0
135.1
66.4
8.8
883.8
2,800.4
2,540.5
259.9
212.8
686.9
56.4
54.2
2.2
1,063.8
1,052.8
11.0
11.6
3.5
278.2
-
222.5
85.7
12.5
9.4
3.1
24.1
62.2
34.9
1.2
293.6
988.9
869.9
118.9
25.9
150.3
29.2
27.7
1.5
2-12
-------
As can be noted, many of the cost figures are higher in this
report, as compared to the last cost of Glean Air Report.
Several factors account for this fact. The costing
parameters for investment and 0&M were inflated from a base
year to 1975 using factors on an industry-by-industry basis.
when these were used in the SEAS model, resultant figures
were often higher than would have been the case using a data
base similar to the one used for the COCA report. The
growth factors generated by the SEAS model were often
different than that assumed by COCA, and the time phasing
pattern of investments was adjusted in SEAS to be uniform
across the air abatement industries.
Another factor accounting for differences in the estimates
is due to the inclusion of feedback effects of abatement-
related purchases to the sectors that produce and sell those
goods in the national economic forecasting model of SEAS.
These feedbacks include direct impacts on the demand for
abatement equipment and materials from supplying industries,
as well as on abatement-related employment for operation and
maintenance activities in the industries making the
expenditures. A discussion of this methodology is included
in Section 4.
Aluminum figures are higher because of revised judgments of
industry capacity and control technology requirements,
combined with the SEAS generated growth forecasts. Asbestos
investment figures are within the +30 percent assumed on the
cost functions. Model plant definition and industry
forecasts played an important role in the Coal cleaning
differences in coal figures. The O&M figures assume a rapid
increase in power requirements with size. Copper estimates
are different due to the fact that previous coot figures
were developed on a plant-by-plant basis, while SEAS uses
model plants. This combined with the fact that SEAS assumes
all growth in the industry has associated pollution control
costs yielded higher results. There was also a re-
definition in the parts of the industry studied.
Dry Cleaning forecasts from SEAS assumed 55 percent using
synthetic solvents and the rest utilizing petroleum solvents
for existing plants. New plants use only synthetic solvents
with adsorption units. Several other costing assumptions
affected the forecast. Feed Mills figures are different
largely due to growth assumptions of SEAS, as well as plant
size distribution parameters. Cost curves were developed on
an industry-wide basis.
Grain Handling costs were based upon several assumptions,
since precise estimates of investment and operating costs
2-13
-------
cannot.-yet be- made;, due to lack of data. Capital cost
carves were-derived from estimated-throughputs of 1 million
and 15->million bushe-ls. per*-year. The total capital cost is
the sum o-f • the- weighted capital costs-for the existing
fabric filters, replacement of the cyclones, and
installation on the plants with no controlsi
The overall "Lead investment costs are very close for both
studies. Howevery the breakout of primary and secondary
lead costs is different. This is largely due to different
assumptions on growth patterns.
Lime
-------
Cost data for Sewage Sludge Incineration forecasts was
updated from the last COCA report, and, as such,
substantially revised. Assumptions concerning growth
patterns of the industry also affected forecasts.
pollution control expenditures for the Sulfuric Acid
industry are higher in this study, due to the growth pattern
of demand for sulfuric acid, fhis may not actually increase
the size of the industry, as SEAS would assume, because of
byproduct recovery from other industries. The future growth
pattern of this industry is uncertain.
The zinc industry forecasts for the two reports are based
upon different segments of the industry, as well as the fact
that SEAS includes expansion costs in its estimate.
2-15
-------
Chapter 2
Benefits of Controlling Air Pollution
Contemporary damage estimates are based on the
interpretation of the results of numerous studies of varying
scope, methodology, and data quality. Dose-response data
are most available for effects of sulfur oxides, oxidants,
and particulates in the damage categories of human health
and vegetation. Because of the high cost of obtaining
statistically valid data on actual environmental damages,
much of current pollution effects information is based upon
extrapolation of data from controlled laboratory
experiments.
In combining estimates from different classes of damages,
care must be taken to minimize duplicate counts. For
example, studies of the differences in residential property
values associated with differences in air pollution reflect
primarily the aesthetic and soiling effects rather than
health, materials, and vegetation effects. This approach is
based on the argument that the aesthetic effects are
experienced directly in everyday life, whereas health
effects are mostly long-term, and are not distinguishable by
the general population from other causes of illness.
HEALTH DAMAGES
Nature and Effects of Air
Pollution Damage to Health
The major air pollutants that have been linked to health
damages are suspended particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, oxidants, and carbon monoxide. The effects of these
pollutants are increased morbidity (incidence and prevalence
of disease) and mortality. The specific diseases that have
been associated with air pollution are bronchitis,
emphysema, asthma, respiratory infections, heart disease,
cancer of the respiratory and digestive tracts, and chronic
nephritis. The quantitative relationships between these
diseases and air pollutants have been explored in a variety
of studies; other studies have examined the link between air
pollution and measures of illness or discomfort, such as
absenteeism, emergency ward visits, and automobile
accidents.
The most widely-cited studies of the health effects from air
pollution were performed by Lave and Seskin (1970, 1973) and
by EPA's Community Health and Environmental Surveillance
2-16
-------
System (CHESS). Lave and Seslcin analyzed the relationship
between mortality (in total and in 14 disease categories), a
variety of socioeconomic variables, and several indices of
suspended particulates and sulfates in the air. Their
findings indicate that at least '9 percent of the 1960 death
rate was attributable to particulates and sul fates.' The
strongest effects were on bronchitis and lung cancer.
The CHESS studies (1974) gathered data on a number of
communities chosen to control socio-economic variables
related to disease. A variety of indicators of illnesses
were examined for their relationship to the pollution
composite of sulfur dioxide, suspended sulfates, and total
suspended particulates. The morbidity measures chosen as
most significant were: asthma attacks, restricted activity
days, and physician visits resulting from acute lower
respiratory disease- prevalence of chronic bronchitis; and
aggravation of cardiopulmonary symptoms in the elderly.
In a recent study, Sprey and Takacs (1974) indicated the
likelihood that the health effects of air pollution may turn
out to be greater than expected from previous studies. In
this study, a greater range of specific pollutants and
health effects was examined. Strong correlations were found
between nitrogen dioxide and mortality from arteribsclerotic
and hypertensive heart disease, cancer of the lung, larynx,
and esophagus, and nephritis. In addition, sulfates were
found to be associated with arteriosclerotic heart disease
and cancer of the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts.
These results suggest that the fraction of the death rate
associated with air pollution may be as high as 15 percent.
Survey of Source Studies
The majority of health studies center around damages from
particulates and sulfur oxides. Recently, oxidants and
carbon monoxide have been receiving increasing attention,
but the data base is still very small for- most important
effects. Very little work has been done on nitrogen dioxide
because of the difficulties in isolating the pollutant in
ambient situations and problems in defining valid
measurement" techniques. The more important studies are
listed in Table 1.
2-17
-------
Table 1.
Summary of Health Effects Studies
Study
CHESS
Lave and Seskln
'J0 Buechley
00 Finklea et al .
Bates
Gardner
Hazucha
Zelac et al .
Shoettlln & Landau
CARB
Aronow and IsbelT
Horwath et al ,
Beard and Wertheiro
Hexter & Goldsmith
Shy et al .
Publ Icat 1on
Date
1974
1973
1975
1973
1971
1973
1971
1961
1975
1973
1971
1967
1971
197O
Location
5 Areas
117 SMSAs
New York-N.J.
Based on
various
studies
Laboratory
Laboratory
Laboratory
Laboratory
Los Angeles
Laboratory
Laboratory
Laboratory
Los Angeles
Chattanooga
Pol lutants
Measured
Sulfur dioxide.
sul fates
Partlculates,
su! fates
Sulfur dioxide
Sul fates
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Oxidants
Oxldants
Carbon monoxide
Carbon monoxide
Carbon monoxide
Carbon monoxide
Nitrogen d1ox1d<
Effects
Increased incidence of chronic
and acute respiratory disease
Mortality
Mortality
Mortality and various morbidity
measures
Changes in lung function
Stability changes in alveolar
macrophages
Chromosomal changes
Aggravation of asthma
Changes 1n respiratory
function and susceptibility
Earlier onset of angina pain
Time discrimination
deterioration
Mortality
Increased Incidence of
respiratory disease
-------
A recent survey of health damage studies was accomplished by
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering (1974) in their report, Air Quality and
Automobile Emission Control (1974), which concentrates
largely on effects of carbon monoxide, with other pollutants
treated in slightly less detail. Neuberger and Radford
(1974) cite more than 100 references on both human and
animal experiments for seven pollutants, including
formaldehyde and benzo-pyrene, in the context of identifying
threshold levels for health effects. Source descriptions of
the older literature may be found in the NATO reports (1971,
1972, 1973), which detail both toxicological and
epidemiological effects grouped by specific pollutants.
Waddell (1974) has reviewed a number of primary source
studies in the process of deriving one chapter to economic
costs of diseases based on statistics from the U.S. Public
Health Service, and various reports and studies. Selected
source studies on health effects are summarized below as an
indication of the large resource literature that exists.
The effects of sulfur oxides and particulates are often
difficult to separate due to collinearity of their
concentrations. The basic work on a national scale has been
provided by the CHESS program. Recently published results
(EPA, May 1974) provide data from five study areas selected
across the United States; they were: the Salt Lake Basin,
Rocky Mountains, Chicago-Northwest Indiana, New York, and
Cincinnati. The basic study concentration was on acute and
chronic respiratory disease including asthma aggravation,
but some correlations with cardiopulmonary symptoms were
found in New York.
The published CHESS studies were carried out between 1967
and 1971. in some cases, data from as early as 1940 on
population exposure of pollutant measurement were
extrapolated. Current monitoring data were obtained from
pollutant-specific air quality sensors placed in each
community. Each study involved comparisons of several
communities within a geographic area. The major conclusions
supported the correlation of suspended sulfate
concentrations with both increased incidence of asthma ana
aggravation of cardiopulmonary disease. However, recent
reviews of statistical validity of CHESS experimental data
indicate that these results are highly speculative. (House
Subcommittee on the Environment and the Atmosphere, 1976)
A recent study by Finklea et. al_. (1975) has formulated "best
Judgment" dose-effect functions for suspended sulfates.
Damage functions were derived from various studies on
mortality, aggravation of heart and lung disease in the
elderly, aggravation of asthma, excess acute lower
2-19
-------
respiratory disease in children, and excess chronic
respiratory disease. All except mortality showed positive
responses below 15 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3) of
sulfate concentration; the threshold for mortality effects
determined by the study is approximately 25 ug/m3. The
suspended sulfate concentrations are related to sulfur
dioxide concentrations by a linear equation , such that in
the case of morbidity, 320 ug/m3 of sulfur dioxide
corresponds to a 25 ug/m3 sulfate level. Thus, effects are
shown to occur here even below the primary 24-hour sulfur
dioxide standard of 365
Another investigation of air pollution effects in a large
number of areafe has been performed by Lave and Seskin
(1973). The relationship between mortality rates and
pollutant concentrations was investigated for 117 standard
metropolitan statistical areas. Correlations with various
socioeconomic indices were investigated by multivariate
regression analysis, and sulfate levels were isolated as
having a significant association with mortality rates. It
was determined that a 10 percent reduction in the level of
suspended particulates and swl fates would reduce the
mortality rate by 0.9 percent.
Buechley (1973) has investigated relationships between
sulfur dioxide and mortality in the New York-New Jersey
Metropolitan area. The study utilizes statistical
techniques and regression analysis to investigate residual
mortality after elimination of meteorological and other
covariates. Records over the period from 1960 to 1964 were
correlated with 11 levels of sulfur dioxide concentration,
indicating that a change in 24-hour levels between 140 and
500 ug/m3 corresponds to a change in residual mortality in
excess of 3 percent.
Results of a study on outpatient medical costs in the
Portland, Oregon, standard metropolitan statistical area
(SMSA) have been presented by Jaksch and Stoevener (1974).
The study utilized records and surveys developed by the
Kaiser-Permanente Medical Care Program to investigate the
impact of suspended particulate concentration from 60 to 80
ug/m3 would result in only a 3.5 cent increase in expense
per medical visit for respiratory diseases. Recommendations
for future study include the determination of impact of
pollutants on the number of medical contacts.
The National Academy of Sciences report summarizes
investigations of acute and chronic respiratory illness in
high oxidant atmospheres, mostly in California, or in
laboratory experiments. The report lists aggravation of
asthma, decreased cardiopulmonary reserve, increased
2-20
-------
susceptibility to acute respiratory disease, decrease in
pulmonary function, as well as changes in cell physiology,
as being prime documented effects of oxidants.
lexicological studies with rabbits (Gardner, 1972) have
shown that the stability of cells that prevent lung
infection (alveolar macrophages) is reduced at
concentrations of 196 ug/m3 (0.10 parts per million-ppm) for
2.5 hours. Experiments with hamsters (Zelac et al., 1971)
have shown mutagenic changes (chromosome breaks in white
blood cells) when exposed to 392 ug/m* (0.20 ppm) for 5
hours. Studies with humans (Bates e_t al. 1973, Hazucha e_t
al. 1973) have shown significant changes in pulmonary
function upon exposure to 1,470 ug/m3 (0.75 ppm) and 725
ug/m3 (0.37 ppm) for 2 hours. Asthma attack rate in
asthmatics has been found to increase significantly at daily
peak oxidant concentrations of 490 ug/m3 (0.25 ppm)
(Shoettlin and Landau 1961). These studies and others are
listed as being on indicative, but incomplete, data base for
photochemical oxidant effects on health. The need for
further investigation in both the formulation of dose-
response relationships and the validity of the present
standards in the light of new evidence was strongly
recommended by the panel.
Current studies in health damages are being pursued under
the auspices of EPA's Office of Research and Development to
estimate the health costs associated with air pollution.
One of these studies recently completed by the California
Air Resources Board (1975) has estimated "rough order" dose-
effect functions compiled by an expert panel using a Delphi
approach. The panel generally agreed that patients
suffering from viral or bacterial illness would have
enhanced susceptibility to oxidant-induced abnormalities.
It was deduced that 90 percent of the infected individuals
would experience increased dyspnea at 1,560 ug/m* (0.80 ppm)
and increased cough at 1,176 ug/m3 (0.60 ppm). Ten percent
of this population would be incapacitated by superimposed
bacterial pneumonia (influenza) or acute respiratory failure
(viral bronchitis) following exposure to 1,176 ug/m3 (0.60
ppm) of oxidant.
Carbon monoxide is the principal pollutant reviewed in the
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report. Effects on
symptoms of cardiovascular disease, behavioral vigilance
effects, and effects during pregnancy are presented . as the
major categories. In an experiment in the Los Angeles area
(Aronow and Isbell 1973), a reduction in the time before
onset of pain from patients with angina pectoris was
observed after breathing carbon monoxide at 56 ug/m3 (50
ppm) for 2 hours. In psychological experiments testing
response to environmental stimuli, some indications show
2-2J
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that reduction in vigilance and response can occur after
exposures of 56 ug/ms (50 ppm) for 1.5 hours (Beard and
Weftheisn 1967). The. investigations into effects of carbon
monoxide exposure on the developing fetus in women during
pregnancy have been primarily carried out on animals, and
the results are not clearly extrapolatable- to humans.
Hexter and Goldsmith (1971) have carried out a regression
analysis of daily mortality data in Los Angeles County for
the period 1962-65; they considered temperature variations
and other cyclic factors as covariates to carbon monoxide
concentration. The study indicates a significant
correlation of carbon monoxide with mortality, and concludes
that the estimated contribution of carbon monoxide between
concentrations of 23 ug/m3 (20.2 ppm) and 8 ug/m* (7.3 ppm)
is 11 deaths per day, other factors being equal.
Nitrogen dioxide has been primarily associated with chronic
and acute respiratory disease. The NAS study cites the work
of Shy et al. (1970) in Chattanooga which tied acute
bronchitis rates in infants with differential nitrogen
dioxide exposure. Relative incidence of bronchitis was
observed to vary as much as 58 percent between low and high
exposures. Questions about the validity of nitrogen dioxide
measurement methods and the presence of an influenza
epidemic have thrown some doubt on the validity of the
conclusions; the NAS panel recommends further investigations
in this area.
AESTHETIC DAMAGES
Nature and Effects of Air
Pollution Damage to Aesthetics
Air pollution reduces the pleasantness of peoples' daily
experiences and it can also cause unpleasant experiences
that lead to psychic damages. Opinion surveys have shown
that the most noted aesthetic effects of air pollution are
material soiling and deterioration, irritation of eyes,
nose, and throat, malodors, and reduced visibility. These
effects are primarily related to the aesthetic aspects of
experience rather than to direct physical, health, or
economic damages. There is an area of overlap, howevert
between aesthetic damages and materials damages because of
the aesthetic losses from soiling and deterioration.
The primary pollutant responsible for soiling is
particulates. Irritation of eyes, nose, and throat is
caused primarily by photochemical oxidants. Hydrogen
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sulfide, produced by anaerobic decomposition of wastes, is a
frequent cause of malodor. Reduced visibility is caused
primarily by particulates and nitrogen dioxide.
Survey of Source Studies
A summary of the property value studies of primary interest
in . developing national estimates of the aesthetic benefits
of air pollution control is shown in Table 2. These studies
employed multiple regression techniques using a variety of
pollution level measures, other variables influencing
property values, and property values. All study results
confirmed the hypothesis that pollution and property values
are inversely related, and they found statistically
significant coefficients expressing the relationships.
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Table 2.
Summary of Property Value Studies
Investigator Date
Ridker-Henning 1967
zerbe 1969
Anderson-Crocker 1970
Crocker
Peckham
Spore
NAS and NAE
Kelson
1971
1970
1972
1974
Location
St. Louis
Toronto
Hamilton
St. Louis
Kansas City
Washington,
D.C.
Chicago
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Boston and
Los;Angeles
1975 Washington,
D.C.
» A measure of SO3 deposition, probably
particulate levels.
Pollution Measure
Sulfationi
Sulfation
Sulfation
Sulfation and
suspended particulate
Sulfation and
suspended particulate
Sulfation and
suspended particulate
Sulfur dioxide and
suspended particulate
Sulfation and
suspended particulate
Sulfation and
dustfall
Nitrogen oxides and
particulates
Oxidants
also indicative of
The study of air quality and automobile emission control by
the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering provides
a more recent estimate of the air- pollution damages related
to automobiles. This study employed a general equilibrium
model of the property market for business, residential, and
agricultural land use. Using data on Los Angeles and
Boston, the study estimated the
automobile emissions to be in . the
billion, annually.
national damages from
range of $1.5 to $5
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The bidding game study of pollutioh control benefits at the
Four Corners power plant added a new dimension to the
estimation of aesthetic benefits. A questionnaire was
administered to local residents and tourists after showing
them three sets of photographs, each set showing the
aesthetic aspects of different levels of pollution. Bidding
games, using realistic payment mechanisms, were designed to
determine the maximum amounts that households would be
willing to pay for improvements shown in the photographs.
The payment mechanisms included sales taxes, electricity
bills, monthly payments, user fees/ and compensation for
environmental damages (Randall 1974).
VEGETATION DAMAGES
The Nature and Effects of Air
pollution Damage to Vegetation
Until recently, studies of the effects of air pollution on
vegetation were limited primarily to leaf damage caused by
acute exposures in areas adjoining urban centers. However,
recent work has begun to change this picture, indicating
that vegetation damage is likely to be far more extensive
than had been expected.
Measurements of air pollution in rural areas in many states
have shown the presence of hazardous concentrations of
oxidants over large areas; this condition appears to be the
result of the processes of transport and chemical reaction
within plumes carried from urban areas. Fluorides, nitrogen
dioxide, and sulfur dioxide, with its resultant acid rain,
have also been found to have impacts on rural vegetation.
In addition, a number of experimental techniques have been
developed to determine the impact of specific pollutants on
plant growth. Studies using these techniques have shown
that chronic exposure to ozone affects the yield of many
crops to a far greater extend than that indicated by leaf
damage from acute exposures. Experimental work still in the
exploratory stage suggests that oxidants, such as ozone, may
destroy chlorophyll and cause reductions in plant growth,
which are not manifested by visible injury, conversely, it
appears that acute exposure can cause leaf damage1 without
having a substantial effect on long-term plant growth.
A series of Swedish studies have indicated that the
potential effects of sulfur dioxide on vegetation extend far
beyond the emission sources and the affected vegetation in
the immediate area that is exposed to contact with sulfur
2-25
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dioxide laden air. It appears that sulfur dioxide that is
not washed out of the air by rainfall can be transported for
distances up to 600 miles and it is exposed to chemical
reactions that produce sulfuric acid mist or acid rain.
Although acid rain is known to affect vegetation directly,
greater damage results in areas where the soils lack
sufficient alkalinity to provide a buffer against the acid.
The leaching of nutrients by such acids reduces plant
growth.
Survey of Source Studies
Damage studies have been performed on a wide variety of
agronomic crops, citrus trees, lumber trees, and
ornamentals. The largest segment of these studies relates
to damage from oxidants and sulfur dioxide, although
nitrogen oxides and fluorides have also been implicated; the
more important studies are listed in Table 3.
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Table 3,
Summary of Vegetation Damage Studies
Study
Benedict et al .
Heck et al .
Jj Heck and Brandt
Botkin et al .
Costonis and Sinclair
Mi 1 ler
Thompson et al .
Davis
H11 1 et al .
Temple
McCune
Date
1973
1966
1974
1971
1969
1973
1972
1972
1974
1972
1969
Locat ion
Laboratory
Laboratory
Laboratory
New York
Cal ifornia
Riverside
Her ford, Arizona
Utah and
New Mexico
Laboratory
Various studies
Pollutants Mea
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Ozone
Sulfur dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
nitrogen dioxii
Sulfur dioxide
Fluorides
Effects
Increased damage
index
5% injury and
threshold levels
Reduction of
photosynthes1s
Induced needle
blight
Yield reduction in
ci trus
Yield reduction in
soybeans
Foliar injury
FolIar injury
Foliar injury and
yield reduction in
various species
-------
Quantitative relationships between air pollution and
vegetation damage, have been developed in only a few studies.
The NATO criteria .documents (November 1971, February 1973,
and 1974) for these pollutants contain overall reviews of
the literature, as does the chapter by HecX and Brandt
(1974) in Stern's air pollution volumes. Jacobson and Hill
(1974) contains several hundred primary source references,
although damage functions are not specifically addressed.
The National Academy of Sciences (1974) publication is the
most complete source on fluorides. A recent study for the
Environmental Protection Agency (Benedict 1973) has
attempted to circumvent physical damage functions by
relating source emissions directly to economic losses; this
method is suspect, especially for oxidants, as indicated by
the recently discovered, high rural oxidant levels shown in
the 1973 EPA Trends Report.
Heck and co-workers (1966) have provided a number of studies
quantifying ozone damages to various species. in an
investigation of damages to one variety each of tobacco and
pinto beans, dose-effect functions of a sigmoidal nature
were derived. For pinto beans, the injury index for 1 hour
of exposure to ozone rose from zero to 90 percent at 0.60
ppm concentration. Chronic effects of ozone are also
documented by the data as changing by approximately 15
percent between exposure times of I hour and 4 hours. This
percentage held true at both high ozone levels and levels
near the primary standard of 0.08 ppm. The chronic effects
on tobacco showed more than a 20 percent variation in injury
between 1 hour and 4 hours of exposure. Heck developed a
number of useful visual display techniques for damage
functions, illustrating both synergistic effects of
pollutants and acute versus chronic effects. He used three-
dimensional graphs to simultaneously demonstrate variations
in pollutant concentration, exposure time> and resulting
damage.
Heck and Brandt (NATO 1974) have shown oxidant damage at the
5 percent level for over 100 plant species on a scatter
diagram. Damage envelopes are drawn at the 5 percent and
threshold levels for concentrations ranging from 0-2,160
ug/m3 (0-1.1 ppm) and with time exposures from zero to 8
hours. This ef;fort is useful in providing ranges of damages
for a large number of unrelated higher plant- species.
A number ,of studies are available on damages to species of
pine trees. Botkin, et al. (1971), Costonis and Sinclair,
(1969), and Miller. (1973) have, investigated pine tree
damages. The study by Miller is perhaps the most impressive
due to the high damage and death .rates' found for Ponderosa
Pine over a. 2-year study period. All of the trees were
2-28
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found to be injured to some degree, and 8.1 percent died
during the study. Ambient oxidant readings in the area
exceeded 196 ug/ma {0.10 ppm) for more than an average of 8
hours per day.
Thompson and co-workers (1972) have performed several
studies of oxidant effects on citrus tree yields- both ozone
and peroxyacyl nitrates have been investigated. Thompson e£
al. (1972) quantified differences in leaf drop, fruit set
and drops, and fruit weight per tree on navel oranges.
Variance analysis was then performed on the data, and
confidence levels given for each value. Addition of ambient
ozone to carbon-filtered air was observed to reduce fruit
yield by 35 percent.
Sulfur dioxide effects on soybeans have been investigated by
Davis (1972). A three-year study was conducted on 485
soybean plots. Sulfur dioxide fumigations were carried out
at two growth stages the first two years and at seven stages
during the last year. Good correlations were found between
leaf area destroyed and reduction of yield. while sulfur
oxide exposure is not directly related to yield loss, the
•study is important in indicating a possible general link
between leaf loss and yield loss resulting from 'sulfur oxide
exposures.
Hill ej: al. (1974)' have carried out one of the most massive
studies based on the number of species involved. About 80
native desert species in Utah and New Mexico were examined
for sulfur and nitrogen dioxide effects under field
conditions. Fumigation levels ranged from 1,430 ug/mj
(O.Sppni) to 25,600 ug/rn* (10 ppm) sulfur dioxide
concentration; most species ' for which data was complete
showed a marked injury increase at either 6 or 10 ppm
concentration. While these are much higher than normal
ambient levels, the study was intended to simulate effects
in a power plant plume.
Four ornamental species, Chinese elm, Norway maple, ginkgo,
and pin oak, were fumigated with sulfur dioxide in
controlled environmental chambers by Temple (1972). Three
dimensional' dose-response curves similar to those of Heck
were constructed for each species. Damages to foliage of up
to 95 percent were found at concentrations of1 11 ug/m* (4
ppm) after 6 hours of exposure. This study fails to provide
data near ambient urban levels of 365 ug/m* (0.14 ppm) or
less, but a•small amount of damage was observed at 715 ug/m'
(Oi25 ppm) over time periods of 30 days.
The effects of other pollutants are not well documented.
Mccune (1969) has done research on fluorides, but this
2-29
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pollutant is not widespread in ambient air. Participates
have been found to show slight effects due to limitation of
photosynthesis. Nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide have
shown no appreciable effects in the few studies that have
been performed.
MATERIALS DAMAGES
The Nature and Effects of Air
Pollution Damage to Materials
A wide variety of air pollutants cause damages to materials.
Sulfur dioxide corrodes metals, particulary galvanized
steel; it also attacks cotton textiles, finishes and
coatings, paints, building stone, electrical and electronic
equipment, paper, and leather. -Ozone has been shown to
shorten the life of rubber products, dyes, and paints.
Nitrogen oxides also cause fading of dyes and paints.
Particulates cause deterioration and soiling of stone, clay,
and glass structures and products. These damaging effects
are experienced by society in a number of ways. In many
cases, avoidance costs are additional because research and
development has been needed to develop new materials more
resistant to attack by air pollution. These new materials
are sometimes more expensive than those more susceptible to
damage. Society also bears the costs of cleaning and
repairs, including the replacement of failed or deteriorated
components and structures. In some cases, the failure of a
material can cause damages.
Survey of Source Studies
Best documentation for damage to materials covers the
effects of sulfur dioxide, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide.
Particulates have been shown to have effects on soiling of
paints and building materials. Surveys of physical damage
functions may be found in Yocom and McCaldin (1968} and the
NATO criteria documents for particu-lates (1971), sulfur
dioxide (1971), and photochemical oxidants (1974). Much of
the recent work in both ambient air and controlled chamber
studies has been pursued at EPAs National Environmental
Research Center in Triangle Park, N.C. Economic estimates
based on physical damage studies have been made by Salmon
(1970), Gillette (1974), Haynie (1974), and Waddell (1974).
The major damage studies are summarized in Table 4.
2-30
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Table 4.
Summary of Materials Damage Studies
Study
Upham
Haynie and
Upham
Date
1965
1970
Pollutants Measured
Sulfur dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
Beloin and 1973
Haynie
Booz Allen . 1970
and Hamilton
Michelson and 1967
Tourin
Upham 1974
et al.
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
Nitrogen dioxide
Effects
Metal corrosion
zinc corrosion
due to sulfur
dioxide and
humidity
Soiling
Soiling
Paint Soiling
Textile dye
fading
The most comprehensive survey of economic losses incurred
from air pollution damage to materials is the work of Salmon
(1970). Thirty-two categories of materials were the basis
for calculating a total economic loss of $3.8 billion due to
air pollution. The pollutants, in decreasing order of
economic importance, were found to be sulfur oxides, ozone,
nitrogen oxides, carbon dioxide and particulates. Waddell
has used parts of this study, combined with in-depth studies
on specific categories, to arrive at an estimate for the
cost of materials losses in 1970,
Haynie (1974) has assessed economic damages to metals,
paints, elastomers, electrical contacts and electronic
components at $2.7. billion per year. The percentages of
total economic loss and available reference material are
given for • metals, paints, textiles, elastomers, and
plastics. Each area is also rated as to whether there is
strong or weak evidence of damage or only a suspected
relationship, i This approach clearly defines areas requiring
further investigation.
Economic damage due to sulfur dioxide has been estimated by
Gillette (1974), both on a national and regional basis; the
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estimate shows significant reductions in sulfur dioxide
levels nationwide between 1968 and 1972. These calculations
were carried out for various SMSAs using the air quality at
the center of the city as representative of the entire SMSA.
Reductions of damages due to sulfur dioxide were calculated
to decrease from $900 million to $75 million over the 5-year
period. This loss was determined to occur mostly from
corrosion of painted or unpainted surfaces.
Physical damage studies pertaining to materials are not
available on a comprehensive basis, but studies that have
been done on specific materials are usually better
quantified than studies on health or vegetation damage due
to the lack of biological complications. The studies
presented below are representative of the backup data which
support the economic damage functions.
Metal corrosion is the most economically significant
category. A number of studies have been completed on metal
corrosion caused by sulfur dioxide. One ' of the most
illustrative for widespread geographic interpretation was a
study by Upham (1965) on metal corrosion in eight major
cities, values of corrosional weight loss between levels of
0.02 and 0.14 ppm annual sulfur dioxide concentration vary
from 4 to 12 grams, respectively. Except for one city, the
data very nearly fits a straight line dose-response
function. Corrosion of zinc has been investigated by Haynie
and Upham (1970); sulfur dioxide and relative humidity were
determined to act synergistically in the corrosion process.
Significant reductions in useful lifespan were predicted
even at sulfur dioxide concentrations as low as 130 ug/m'.
Good correlation of soiling of painted and unpainted
surfaces with particulate concentration has been found by
Beloin and Haynie (1973) for a variety of substances. Dose-
effect functions were developed by regression analysis and
particulates were found to account for up to 92 percent of
the variability of reflectance for certain substances.
Whether or not this physical change can be linked to changes
in maintenance frequency is not yet clear. Studies by Booz
Allen and Hamilton (1970) in the Philadelphia area
demonstrated no correlation with particulate concentration
between 50 and 150 ug/ms, vhile a study by Michelson and
Tourin (1967) showed more than four times as much repainting
was done in areas with 250 ug/m^ concentration than in areas
with 50 ug/ms concentration. However, the transgeographic
nature of the study leaves these results open to question.
Nitrogen dioxide has been only tentatively linked to
significant materials damage. A recent study by Upham e_t
al. (for EPA) has indicated that certain cellulosic fibers
2-32
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may be affected by nitrogen dioxide. Controlled test
chambers were employed to investigate both nitrogen dioxide
and relative humidity effects. correlation of nitrogen
dioxide concentration with dye fading was found, as well as
evidence of a synergism with relative -humidity. This
correlation is supported somewhat by the cost study of
Salvin, which linked sulfur and nitrogen oxides and acids to
changes in textile fibers and dyes.
MORE ELUSIVE DAMAGES
As pointed out on repeated occasions, the current state-of-
the-art in benefit assessment does not permit full
estimation of all the damages associated with air pollution.
For example, in assessing the damages to human health, the
costs of lost leisure time and psychic costs are not
adequately reflected in estimates of the economic cost of
illness. In other cases, the effects themselves have not
yet been adequately defined, as in the case with the risk of
large-scale ecological disruptions. With some types of
damage, both the effects and the damage values elude
adequate definition. Additional damage categories that have
been excluded from the discussion presented above include:
• unquantified health effects
• Animal health
• Natural environment.
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Ridker, R. G., Economic costs of Air Pollutionf Frederick A.
Praeger, New York, 1967.
Ridker, R. G. and Kenning, J., "The Determinants of
Residential Property values with Special Reference to Air
Pollution," Review of Economics and Statistics. 49: pp.
246-257, 1967.
Rice, Dorothy P., "Estimating the Cost of Illness," U.S.
Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, May 1966.
Salmon, R. L., "Systems Analysis of the Effects of Air
Pollution on Materials," U.S. Department of Health,
Education, and Welfare, 1970.
Salvin, V. S., "Survey and Economic Assessment of the
Effects of Air Pollution on Textile Fibers and Dyes," U.S.
Department of Health, Education and Welfare, June 1970.
Schloettlin, C. E. and Landau, E., "Air Pollution and
Asthmatic Attacks in the Los Angeles Area," Public Health
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Shy, C., e_t al., "The Chattanooga School Study: Effects of
Community Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide. Methods,
Description of Pollutant Exposure, and Results of
ventilatory Function Testing," Journal Air Pollution
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Shy, C., et. al., "The Chattanooga School Study: Effects of
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2-38
-------
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Trends in National Air Pollution and Related Effects",
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Temple, Patrick J. "Dose Response of Urban Trees to Sulfur
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Thompson, C. R., e_t al., "Effects of Ambient Levels of Ozone
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6: pp. 1013-1016, November 1972.
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Upham, J. B., Journal Air Pollution Control Aesoc.. 15: p.
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Zelac, R. E., et al./ "Ozone as a Mutagen", Environmental
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Zerbe, R. 0., "The Economics of Air Pollution: A Cost-
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1969.
2-39
-------
Chapter 3
The Costs of Controlling Air Pollution
1. INTRODUCTION
This 1975 estimation of the total incremental costs that
will be required to meet the provisions set forth by the
Clean Air Act is significantly different from the estimates
presented in the 1974 Cost g_f Clean Air Report for the
following reasons:
1. Costs for more industries have been included, providing
a broader base than previous reports.
2. Compliance dates for some standards are different.
3. More detailed analysis has been performed on the
Transportation Control Plans costs.
All major industrial pollutant sources which were included
in the 1974 report are reevaluated in this report. In
addition, costs have been estimated for the following
industrial sources which have been added to make this report
more comprehensive:
1. Clay construction products
2. Coal gasification plants
3. Paint manufacturers
4. Printing establishments
5. Surface coatings facilities
6. Petrochemical industry
7. Honfertilizer phosphate reduction products
8. Building and industrial incinerators.
This report assumes that the compliance date for some
scrubber installations in the electric utility plant's will
be extended to as late as July 1, 1980. This assumption
will postpone some of the investment cost for as much as
five years, and it will also reduce the annual cost of
operating pollution control equipment and the cash
requirements of the electric utilities sector to some extent
during the period 1975-80.
Air pollution control costs passed on to the purchasers of
light-duty motor vehicles have been calculated based upon
statutory emission control requirements and related
regulations. The reduction in new car sales during the 1975
model year, and futur-e estimates of reduced car sales
2-40
-------
resulted in lower control costs than were previously
estimated because control costs are calculated on the basis
of new car sales.
Estimates of the costs associated with State Transportation
Control Plans were made on a more detailed basis in this
report and exceed the $2 billion estimate reported in the
1974 cost report.
2. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES FOR
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
The Clean Air Amendments of 1970 (P.L. 91-604) impose
somewhat different requirements on governmental agencies
than on others affected by the legislation. Although there
will be some expenditures for abatement of pollution from
government owned facilities, the principal purposes of
expenditures in the government sector are for research,
monitoring, administration, and enforcement. Research is
mainly supported by Federal funds, while state and local
funds, supplemented by Federal grants, are used primarily to
implement, operate, and maintain monitoring and enforcement
programs.
Detailed analyses are not presented here, since the main
purpose of this effort is to determine the magnitude of this
category of expenditures relative to other expenditures
estimated in the report. The discussion concentrates on two
basic categories: program costs and costs for controlling
pollution at Federal facilities.
Program Costs
Table 2-1 shows projected governmental expenditures broken
down by EPA and subfederal categories. A stable rate of
expenditure after FY 1978 is anticipated due to governmental
revenue constraints and competing social needs.
2-41
-------
Table 2-1
Projected Local, State and Federal A1r Quality Program Costs
(By Fiscal Years in Millions of Dollars)
to
1
EPA1
State & Local
Total
Tran-
1976 sition'
78
156
224
19
39
58
1977
9O
193
283
1978
94
21O
3O4
1979
94
21O
3O4
1980
94
210
3O4
1981
94
21O
3O4
1982
94
21O
3O4
1983
94
21O
304
1984
94
21O
3O4
1985
94
210
3O4
Total
939
2O68
3007
1 Excluding grants to state, interstate, and local governments which are included in that category.
' July 1. 1976 through September 3O, 1976 for converting Federal fiscal year to October i-September 3O,
-------
Federal Program Costs
The Clean Air Act authorizes a national program of air
pollution research, regulation, and enforcement activities.
Under the Act, primary responsibility for the prevention and
control of air pollution rests with State and local
governments, with the program directed at the Federal level
by EPA. EPA's role is to conduct research and development
programs, set national environmental goals, ensure that
adequate standards and regulations are established to meet
these goals, provide assistance to the States, and ensure
that the standards and regulations are effectively enforced.
The environmental standards are the National Ambient Air
Quality Standards (NAAQS). These standards set forth the
allowable concentration in air of pollutants which affect
human health and public welfare. The health and other
effects of pollutants are delineated in criteria documents
which are the basis for the standards. National Ambient Air
Quality Standards have been set for total suspended
particulates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon
monoxide, photochemical oxidants, and hydrocarbons. Two
types of standards are set: primary standards to protect
human health and secondary standards to protect the public
welfare (prevention of damage to property, animals,
vegetation, crops, visibility, etc.). Controlling emissions
to meet standards is handled through two major types of
activities: (1) States carry out State implementation plans
(SIPs> which control pollution primarily by preceiving
specific emission limitations or control actions for types
of polluters and (2) EPA controls emissions from new motor
vehicles and selected stationary sources.
Program emphasis will continue to be on the attainment and
maintenance of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
Because the implementation of control actions is basically
the responsibility of the State and local governments, it
will be required that they take on increased
responsibilities for air pollution control if the standards
are to be attained, particularly if automotive-related
pollutants are to be controlled. The State control plans
incorporate controls for automotive related pollutants since
reductions achieved as a result of the Federal motor vehicle
control program are not sufficient to attain the standards
for such pollutants in many areas. The Federal program
places primary emphasis on increasing State and local
control agencies' ability to control air pollution.
In order to attain the standards, efforts are to concentrate
on the implementation of State implementation plans, their
reassessment, and revision if indicated. For maintenance of
2-43
-------
the standards/ many SIPS will have to be revised to include
the controls required to assure that the ambient air quality
'standards are not violated in the future. The governors of
45 States have been formally notified by EPA Regional
Administrators that the SlPs for their states must be
revised in order to attain and maintain the NAAQS. Plan
revisions are necessary in 31 States for particulate matter;
12 States for sulfur dioxide; 22 States for carbon monoxide;
29 States for photochemical oxidants; and 3 States for
nitrogen dioxide.
The nature and magnitude of the problems associated with
attainment and maintenance of the NAAQS varies with the
specific pollutant involved. Federal programs will be aimed
at the formulation of methodologies for developing control
strategies and the development of control systems as well as
to the support of State and local programs. Maintenance of
the standards in the long term will also be facilitated by
Federal programs that lead to the minimization of emissions
from new sources (i.e., new motor vehicle emission standards
and standards of performance for new stationary sources) and
the assurance of continued low emissions performance for
these sources during their useful lives.
Program expenditures by the Agency are expected to remain
level for the next several years, with the states gradually
assuming greater responsibility for implementation of the
various provisions of the Act. Table 2-2 shows projections
for the three major appropriations categories.
2-44
-------
Table 2-2.
Projection of Federal Program Expenditures by Category
to
(By Fiscal Years In Millions of Dollars)
Abatement and
Control '
Enforcement
Research and
Development
Total
1 Includes grants to state, Interstate, and local government.
4 duly 1, 1976 through September 3O, 1976, for converting Federal fiscal year to October 1, through September 3O.
Trans-
1976 ition'
63
13
36
1 12
16
3
9
28
1977
89
14
44
147
1978
94
18
40
152
1979 198O
a4 94
18 18
4O 4O
152 152
1981
94
18
40
152
1982
94
18
4O
152
1983
94
18
4O
152
1984
94
18
4O
152
1985
94
18
4O
152
Total
92O
174
4O9
1 ,5O3
-------
Expenditures by Other Federal Agencies
The following information is excerpted and adapted from:
Office of Management and Budget, "Special Analyses: Budget
of the United States Government", USGPO 1976.
Although covering a wide range of activities, Federal
environmental programs are classified in three broad
categories: pollution control and abatement; understanding,
describing and predicting the environment, and environmental
protection and enhancement activities. It is difficult to
attribute non-EPA Federal expenditures to specific pollution
control legislation in many cases, but an approximation of
P.L. 91-604 related expenditures is given by the air quality
expenditures in the Pollution Control and Abatement
category. Principal activities in this category include
actions necessary to reduce pollution from Federal
facilities; the establishment and enforcement of standards;
research and development; and the identification of
pollutants, their sources, and their impact on health. Non-
EPA air quality expenditures by the Federal government in
FY1976, the transition quarter and FY1977 are 186, 46 and
209 million dollars, respectively.
Since Federal spending is strongly influenced by policy and
competing social needs, forecasting is always problematical.
The best estimate currently is that such expenditures will
remain stable over the next several years, with only minor
growth or decline. If non-EPA Federal outlays in this
category were to be held constant at the FY1977 level, total
decade expenditures would be about 2.1 billion dollars.
While this is a large amount on an absolute basis, it is
relatively small compared to total expenses in the nation
for P.L. 91-604.
3. CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY SOURCES
For the purposes of this report, stationary sources are
considered to include industrial sources, utilities, and
industrial/commercial heating and incineration which are
treated as industries. Dry cleaning establishments, paint
shops, and other small scale activities are also considered
as industries.
Service stations are considered under the Mobile source
section because they are controlled for vapor emissions
under Transportation Control Plans.
2-46
-------
Classification of Industrial Sources
In order to calculate air pollution control costs,
industries are represented by- "segments" and "model plants".
A "segment" is all or a portion of an industry that has: (1)
the same production process, (2) the same air pollution
control technology, and (3) the same pollution control
standard. For example, the Kraft Paper Industry is dealt
with for purposes of air pollution control costs in terms of
10 different segments. These segments are defined in Table
3-1.
2-47
-------
Table 3-1.
Kraft Paper Industry Segment Definitions
Process
1. Power Boiler
2. Boiler
3. Recovery
Furnace
4. Recovery
Furnace
5. Recovery
Furnace
6. Recovery
Furnace
7. Smelting Tank
8. Lime Kiln
9. Stock Washer
10. Evaporator
Control
Technology
Electrostatic
precipitators
Double Alkali
Scrubber
Electrostatic
Precipitators
Venturi Scrubber
Recovery
Furnace Replace-
ment
BLO
Orifice Scrubber
Venturi Scrubber
Incinerate in
Recovery Furnace
Incinerate in
Lime Kiln
Pollution
Standard
Federal
Particulates
Federal Sulfur
Dioxide
Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates
Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates
Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur
Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur
Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates
Washington/
Oregon Parti-
culates
Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur
Washington/
Oregon Total
Reduced Sulfur
2-48
-------
"Model plants" are the building blocks of a segment; that
is, a segment capacity for production is comprised of a
number of model plants that are classified as either
"existing" or "new" (new facilities are those constructed
after the date when the New Source Performance Standards are
in effect for that industry). For example, Segment 7 for
Kraft Paper (Smelting Tanks) has three model plant sizes
(454, 907, and 1,361 units of production per day). There
are existing facilities in all three sizes, but during the
1975-85 period, new facilities are -expected to be built in
only the middle size class. Table 3-2 lists the industries
for which air costs are calculated, the number of segments
for those industries, and the Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) industry code as defined by the Office
of Management and Budget (OMB).
2-49
-------
Table 3-2.
Segments for Industrial Cost Analysis
Name
Steelmaking
Steel Foundries
Ferroalloy
Steel-Coke
Steel-Scintering
Solid Waste Disposal
Sludge Incineration
NSSC Paper
Primary Zinc
Primary Lead
Secondary Zinc
Secondary Aluminum
industrial Heating
Commercial Heating
Crude Oil Storage
Gasoline Storage
Jet Fuel Storage
Refining
Petroleum Cost Cracking
Primary Aluminum
Natural Gas
Coal Cleaning
iron Foundries
Dry Cleaning
Grain Handling
Feed Mills
Asphalt
Cement
Sulfuric Acid
Nitric Acid
Phosphate Fertilizer
Kraft Paper
Lime
Primary Copper
Secondary Lead
Secondary Brass
Asbestos
Clay Construction Products
Coal Gasification
Petrochemicals
Existing
Segments
22
1
5
3
7
6
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
2
1
5
3
1
1
2
4
2
1
4
10
3
3
1
2
6
3
2
7
SIC (1972
Definition)
331 (pt)
3324.5
3313
331 (pt)
331 (pt)
4953
4953
2611272
33331
33321
33414
33417.8
N/A
N/A
29 IX
29 IX
291X
29 IX
291X
33347
1321
1211 (pt), 12136
3321.2
7215.6
5153
2047.8
29510
3241
28193
2873
2874
2611231.35.39.43
3274
33311
33412
3362
3292
1452.3.4.5.6.7.8.9;
3295
N/A
2869
2-50
-------
Table 3.2. (Continued)
Segments for Industrial Cost Analysis
Name
Existing
Segments
SJC (1972
Definition)
Nonfertilizer Phosphate 3
Mercury Cell Chlor Alkali 2
Commercial and Industrial 2
Building Incineration
Surface Coatings 4
Paint Manufacture 2
Painting 1
2819
2812
N/A
3711.12.13.14.15;
3631.32.33.34.3479.
7531.35
2851
2751.52.53.54;
2711.21.31
The cost of controlling air pollution from industrial
sources is estimated for model plants. All existing and new
capacity is expressed in terms of the model plants. For
example, the smallest model plant in Segment 7 for Kraft
Paper has to spend $54,000 for capital equipment to control
particulates. In summary, this model plant is defined by:
• Industry - Kraft
• Production process - Smelt Tank
• Control technology - Orifice Scrubber
• Pollution standard - Washington-Oregon Particulates
• Model plant capacity - 454 Units
• Type of facility - Existing.
Costs Related to Required
Reduction in Air Emissions
The control costs that industries incur are directly, but
usually not linearly, related to the amount of reduction in
the emissions required. Since the purpose of this section
is to estimate the control costs resulting from provisions
of the Clean Air Act, it is necessary to factor out the
levels of control that existed in industries prior to the
Clean Air Act. Controls could have existed prior to 1971
because it was economically worthwhile to recover byproducts
or because there were prior emission regulations (either
self-imposed or government-generated).
2-51
-------
REDUCTIONS IN EMISSIONS PRIOR
tO THE CLEAN AIR ACT
Byproduct Recovery. In some industries, it is common to
control particulate or sulfur oxides emissions in order to
recover materials in these gases that have economic value.
Where this was common practice prior to 1971, the associated
control costs are not calculated in this report, some
byproduct recovery values are, however, calculated in this
report. such values are calculated when the controls were
prompted by State Implementation Plans (SIP) that responded
to requirements of the Clean Air Act. For example,
petroleum storage tanks are controlled by SIP'S to reduce
the hydrocarbon emissions, in most cases, the value of the
fuel recovered by the control devices placed on these
storage tanXs is greater than the cost of the control
devices. Thus, the control saves industry money rather than
causing a net cost to the industry.
Average Industrial Controls Prior to the Clean Air Act. An
attempt has been made to estimate the average level of
control in each industry prior to the date that each
industry was impacted by the provisions of the Clean Air
Act. For new facilities in a specific industry built during
the late 1970's and early 1980's, it is assumed that they
will have installed pollution equipment equal to the average
practice that existed prior to the Clean Air Act.
Therefore, costs are estimated for the incremental amount of
pollution equipment needed to meet the current emission
standards.
REDUCTIONS IS AIR EMISSIONS REQUIRED
BY THE CLEAN AIR ACT
The Clean Air Act affects pollution control through: (1)
ambient standards for six pollutants tparticulates, sulfur
oxides (SOX), nitrogen oxides (tlOx), hydrocarbons
-------
meteorology, terrain, etc. State Implementation Plans
control pollution from industrial sources based upon local
conditions. For example, Oregon and Washington place
stringent controls on existing Kraft pulp mills, whereas
many states have no existing Kraft pulp mills, and therefore
no present controls. For some industries, such as
Steelmaking, some states have more stringent emission
controls than others, in fact, in this report, steel mills
are classified into four categories based upon the
stringency of various state air emission controls.
Effectively, the SIP'S translate the Federal ambient air
standards into sets of emission standards for particulates,
sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbon, and carbon
monoxide.
Some of these types of state differences in controlling
existing facilities are taken into account in this report.
with regard to new plants, there is much less state
differentiation because there is a set of Federal controls
for new facilities called New Source Performance Standards
(NSPS).
Hew Source Performance Standards. New Source Performance
Standards have been promulgated for only a portion of the
industries that will eventually be covered; Table 3-3 shows
the industries that are presently covered under NSPS and the
associated emission factors. The sources for the data in
this table are references 1 through 7 which are contained in
the listing at the end of Table 3-3. Industries for which
NSPS are not yet promulgated are assumed to have the same
cost functions as these subject to SIP regulations.
2-53
-------
Table 3-3.
New Source Performance Standards Regulations
Source
1 .
Steam Electric
Generators
7 .
Municipal
Incinerators
Portland Cement
Plants
Nitric Acid
Plants
Sulfuric Acid
Plants
Asphalt Concrete
Plants
Petroleum
Ref ineries
(FCC Catalyst
Regenerat ion)
(Process Gas
Burning)
Pollutant
Part iculates
S02 (1iquid fossi1
fuel )
S02 (sol id fossi1
fuel )
NOx (gaseous fuel)
NOx (1iquid fuel)
NOx (solid fuel)
Particulates
(kiIns)
Particulates
(clinker coolers)
NOx
S02
Acid Mist
Part iculates
Part iculates
CO
H2S
Emission Standard1
O.2 lb/10' Btu heat Input (O.36 g/1Os cal)
O,8 lb/10" Btu heat input (1.* g/1Os cal)
1.2 lb/10* Btu heat input (2.1 g/1O8 cal)
0.2 lb/10' Btu heat input (0.36 g/1O' cal)
0.3 lb/10' Btu heat input (0.54 g/1O« cal)
O.7 lb/108 Btu heat Input (1.26 g/1O8 cal)
0,10 grain/SCF dry flue gas (chngd to 12% C02)
1.9 Ib/T (O.95 Kg/MT)
O.30 Ib/T of dry feed (O.15 Kg/MT
O.1O Ib/T of dry feed (O.O5 Kg/MT
3.O Ib/T of acid, avg over 2 hrs. (1.5 Kg/MT)
4.0 Ib/T of acid (1OO%) (2 Kg/MT)
O.15 Ib/T (O.O75 Kg/MT)
7O mg/Nm3
5O mg/Nm3
O.05O volume %
230 mg/Nm' of fuel gas
Suitable
Control Technology
Electrostatic Precipitator
Scrubber (lime slurry) or
low-sulfur fuel switch
Scrubber (llrae slurry) or
low-sulfur fuel switch
Combustion Modifications
Combustion Modifications
Combustion Modifications
Electrostatic Precipitator
or Venturi Scrubber
Baghouse
Baghouse
Catalytic NOx Decomposition
Systems
Dual Absorption Plant or
Sodium Sufite/Bi-sulfite
Scrubber
Fabric Filter or
Venturi Scrubber
Electrostatic Precipitator
Electrostatic Precipitator
Electrostatic Precipitator
-------
Table 3-3. (Continued)
New Source Performance Standards Regulations
to
I
ut
u*
8. Hydrocarbon
Vessels
(Storage Tank)
9. Secondary Lead
(Reverberatory
Furnace)
10, Brass and
Bronze Ingot
(Furnace)
11. Iron and Steel
(BOF)
12. Sewage Sludge
Incineration
13. FerroalToy
(Electric
Submerged
Arc Furnace)
14. Iron and Steel
(Electric Arc
Furnace)
15. Primary
Primary
Potroom
Hydrocarbons
Participates
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
CO
Particulates
Inorganic Fluorides
Visible Emissions
(part iculates,
fluor ides)
Require Floating Roof Tank
50 mg/Nm3
50 mg/Nm3
50 mg/Nm3
7O mg/Nm1
O.99 Ib/MW-hr (O.45 kg/«W-hr)z
O.51 Ib/MW-hr (0.23 kg/MW-hr)3
2O% CO by volume
O.OO52 gr/dry scf (12 mg/dry scm)
5% opacity (but there are many exceptions)
2 ib/ton (1 kg/MT) of aluminum produced
from both Potroom and Bake Plant
Floating Roof Tank
Fabric Filter or Scrubber
Fabric Filter
Open-Hood Scrubber or
Electrostatic Precipi-
tator or Closed-Hood
Scrubber
Venturi Scrubber
Baghouse
Electrostatic Precipitators
Scrubber
Afterburner
Direct shell evacuation
(DSE) with either building
evacuation or canopy
hoods. Or, DSE with
canopy hoods and natural
ventilation through the
open roof.
Wet gas scrubber in series
with an electrostatic
precipitator or fabric
filters using alumina
absorbant
-------
Table 3-3. (Continued)
New Source Performance Standards Regulations
Anode Bake
Plant
Inorganic Fluorides
Vlsjble Emissions
(partIculates.
f)uor i des)
Wet scrubber in conjunction
with a wet electrostatic
precipltator or clean
residua) fluoride-bearing
cryolite from anode
remnants before recyclIng
w
o\
16. Phosphate
Fertilizer
Plants
Vet Pro-
cess Phos-
phoric Acid
Plants
Supei—
phosphoric
Acid Plants
Diammoni um
Phosphate
Plants
Triple
Superphos-
phate
Granular
Triple
Supei—
phosphate
Storage
Inorganic Fluorides
Inorganic Fluorides
Inorganic Fluorides
Visible Emissions
(particulates,
fluorides)
Inorganic Fluorides
Visible Emissions
Inorganic Fluorides
Visible Emissions
O.O2O Ib/ton (1O g/MT) of equivalent P205 feed
O.O1O Ib/.ton (5.O g/MT) of eqvlnt P205 feed
O.OSO Ib/to.n (30 g/MT) of equivalent P2.05 feed
2O% opacity
O.2O Ib/ton (1OO g/MT) of eqvlnt P205 feed
20% opacity
5.OX1O-" 1b/hr/tn (O.25 g/hr/MT) of equivalent
P205
2O% opacity
Cross-flow spray packed
scrubber
Cross-flow spray packed
scrubber
'Cross-flow spray packed
scrubber
Cross-flow spray packed
scrubber
Cross-flow spray packed
Scrubber
17. Coal Cleaning
Fad 1 ities
Wet Clean-
ing Systems
Dry Clean-
ing Systems
PartIculates
Particulates
O.O31 grain/dry scf (O.06 mg/dry SCM)
O.O18 grain/dry scf (O.O29 mg/dry SCM)
High efficiency, venturi
type wet scrubbers
Fabric filters
Not to exceed the amount given.
When producing silicon metal, ferrosi1 icon, calcium silicon, or silico-manganese zirconium.
When producing high carbon ferrochrome, charge chrome, standard ferromanganese, silico manganese, calcium
carbide, ferrochrome silicone, ferromanganese silicon, or silvery iron.
-------
References for fable 3-3.
1. Background Information for Proposed 'New Source
Performance Standards: Steam Generators/ Incinerators,
Portland Cement Plants, Nitric Acid Plants:, Sulfuric
Acid Plants. U.S. -Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, North Caroline. APTD-0711, 50
p., August 1971.
2. Background Information for Proposed New Source
Performance Standards: Asphalt Concrete Plants,
Petroleum Refineries, Storage vessels, Secondary Lead
Smelters and Refineries, Brass or Bronze Ingot
Production Plants, Iron and Steel Plants, Sewage
Treatment Plants. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park,(North Carolina. APTD-
1352a. 61 p., June 1973.
3. Background information for Standards of Performance:
Primary Aluminum industry volume 1: Proposed Standards.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina. 450/2-r74-020a. 99 p., October
1974.
4. Background Information for Standards of Performance:
Electric Arc Furnaces in the Steel Industry volume 1:
Proposed Standards. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. : 450/2-
74-017a. 155p., October 1974.
5. Background Information for Standards of Performance:
Electric Submerged Arc Furnaces for Production of
Ferroalloys volume 1: Proposed Standards. -.U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina. 450/2-74-018a. 147 p., October
1974.
6. Background Information for Standards of Performance:
Phosphate Fertilizer Industry volume 1: Proposed
Standards. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. 450/2-74-019a.
119 p., October 1974.
7, Background Information for Standards of Performance:
Coal Preparation Plants volume 1: Proposed Standards.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina. 450/2-74-021a. 40 p.', October
1974.
2-57
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Hazardous Air Substances. The costs of control (as measured
by either the cumulative investment over a ten-year period
or the annual costs) are relatively small for those
industries controlling hazardous substances in comparison to
the control costs for other industries. The industries
affected by hazardous substances regulations to date are:
• Chlor-Alkali and Primary Mercury for mercury emissions
• The Asbestos industry and construction and demolition
operations for asbestos emissions
• Primary Beryllium for beryllium emissions.
Methods for Controlling Air Emissions from Stationary
Sources. The most common pollutants that industrial sources
have to control are particulates and sulfur oxides. Of the
thirty-nine industries evaluated in this report, twenty-two
must control for particulates and nine must control for
sulfur oxides.
1. Particulate Control Devices. In simplest terms,
particulates are controlled by using electrostatic
precipitators (ESP), scrubbers, or filters. The scrubbers
are usually a wet process that generates a water effluent
problem in the water medium. ESP and filters are usually
dry processes insofar as the extraction of particulates from
the air is concerned, but plants often choose to dispose of
the extracted particulates via a water stream, when this is
done, a water problem is also created. Several of these
intermedia impacts are dealt with in this report.
Plants often put several control devices in series or use
various types of control devices within the category of
scrubber. For example, a segment of the Primary Aluminum
industry employs a primary collector (hoods and ducts), a
wet ESP, and spray tower (scrubber) in series. Different
segments of the Kraft pulp mill industry employ cyclonic
scrubbers, Venturi scrubbers, and orifice scrubbers. The
individual industry descriptions will explain the control
techniques assumed in each case. These examples are
provided here to highlight the intermedia problem and to
place the control devices into some common categories that
are easy to understand.
Electrostatic precipitators are employed for particulates
that can be ionized and separated from a gas stream by
electrical means. Scrubbers usually employ water to "wash"
particles out of a gas stream. Filters are used to remove
particles that can be trapped as the gas stream moves
through a fabric media. Filters are gaining in application
2-58
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because the new fiberglass filters can be employed at very
high temperatures (up to 550°F).
There are a group of miscellaneous control devices that also
can be used for particulate reductions. These include
afterburners, hoods, and building evacuation (where the
building is sealed tight and workspace emissions are
collected at vented locations).
2. Sulfur Oxide Control Devices. The most common control
devices for sulfur oxides are scrubbers, absorbers, and acid
plants. The scrubbers are of the amine, lime, limestone, or
lime/limestone type. Often an acid plant (a control
technique that recovers sulfuric acid from the sulfur gas)
such as a Claus plant is used in conjunction with a scrubber
to obtain a valuable byproduct that can be sold. Claus
recovery plants must themselves be controlled with a tail-
gas treatment facility.
3. Nitrogen Oxide Control Devices. The only industry for
which nitrogen oxide controls are explicitly considered in
this report is the Nitric Acid industry. Nitric acid plants
reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by employing catalytic
reduction devices. In this method of control, the gas is
treated with a catalytic reduction technique that uses
natural gas, ammonia, or hydrogen. Use of natural gas
dominates because of its lower costs and proven ability.
However, the increasing shortages of natural gas could alter
its use in the future.
4. Hydrocarbon Control Devices. Petroleum, Dry Cleaning,
Paint Manufacture, Surface coatings, and Printing are
industries that must control hydrocarbon emissions.
Petroleum storage controls tend to be handled by installing
floating roofs on the storage tanks; this is almost always a
profitable byproduct recovery process. Dry cleaning
emissions will be reduced by switching material reports,
Printing emissions are reduced by using thermal
incinerators.
5. Carbon Monoxide control Devices. Carbon monoxide
emission controls are considered only for the Petroleum
Industry. Carbon monoxide is burned along with hydrocarbons
to form less noxious gases. This burning takes place in
waste-heat boilers, and the energy generated in this burning
is often used to economic advantage by the industry. In
some existing refineries, the additional steam generated by
these boilers cannot be used, but new plants can be designed
to take advantage of this means of reducing their total
energy requirement.
2-59
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6. Pretreatment Options. Quite often, it is very efficient
to reduce.the emissions from a plant by changing fuels or
making some.kind of process change. Two cases where this is
often practiced are the Steam Electric Power Plants and Dry
Cleaning. As the summaries for these two industries show,
assumptions are made about the amount of fuel switching and
solvent fluid used, respectively.
Industrial Descriptions and Assumptions. The industry
summaries and assumptions are presented in the sequence
listed in Table 3-4, and they describe each source in terms
of the industry characteristics, emissions, control
technology, and costs of control.
2-60
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Table 3-4.
industrial Sector Coverage for Air Pollution
Control Analysis of Stationary Sources
Sequence industry
1 Coal Cleaning
1 Coal Gassification
3 Natural Gas Processing
4 Feed Mills
5 Kraft Pulp Mills
6 NSSC Pulp Mills
7 Printing
B Mercury Cell Chlor-Alkali
9 Nitric Acid
10 .Paint Manufacture
11 Phosphate Fertilizer
12 Nonfertilizer Phosphate
13 SuIfuric Acid
14 Petrochemicals
15 Petroleum
16 Ferroalloy
17 iron and Steel
18 Iron Foundries
19 Steel Foundries
20 Primary Aluminum
21 Secondary Aluminum
22 Primary Copper
23 Secondary Brass and Bronze
24 Primary Lead
25 Secondary Lead
26 Primary Zinc
27 Secondary Zinc
28 Asbestos
29 Asphalt Concrete
30 Cement
31 Lime Manufacture
32 Clay Construction Products
33 Surface Coatings
34 Steam Electric Power Plants
35 Solid Waste Disposal
36 Sewage Sludge Incineration
37 Grain Milling
38 Dry Cleaning
39 industrial and Commercial Heating
2-61
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COAL CLEANING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities, in 1972, which is
the last year that Bureau of Mines data was available, the
total production of bituminous and lignite coal in the
United States vas about 540 million metric tons. The annual
production rate has gone both up and down in recent years,
but the net change from 1968 to 1972 was an increase of
about 9 percent. The 1972 production came from 4,879 mines.
About 51 percent of the production came from underground
mines, 46 percent from strip mines, and 3 percent from auger
mines. The trend over recent years has been toward fewer
mines and toward & greater dependence on strip mining. The
number of underground mines has been decreasing, largely
because of the strict regulations of the 1969 Coal Mine
Health and Safety Act.
In the mining of coal, various inert materials and other
impurities, such as pyritic sulfur, are recovered along with
the coal. If these materials are present in sufficient
quantity, they must be removed by coal cleaning. This
cleaning process increases the heating value of the coal and
reduces the amount of pollutants emitted when the coal is
burned.
In strip mining where the coal seams are uncovered, the
amount of impurities in the coal is relatively low, and only
about 32 percent of the coal mined in this manner requires
cleaning. In underground mining, the cutting and loading
methods used lead to somewhat greater amounts of impurities,
and about 67 percent of the coal mined in this manner
requires cleaning. Overall, about 49 percent of the coal
mined in this country is mechanically cleaned. In 1972,
about 355 million metric tons of raw coal were cleaned,
yielding about 266 million metric tons of cleaned coal. The
amount of coal cleaning showed a net decrease of about 20
percent from 1968 to 1972; this decrease resulted from the
increased use of strip mining (which requires less
cleaning), and the increased shipments to electric
utilities, who usually do not require cleaning. However,
the amount of coal cleaning increased by about 8 percent
between 1971 and 1972.
Mechanical coal cleaning involves methods similar to those
used in the ore-dressing industries. About 96 percent of
coal cleaning is done by wet-processing methods, with
pneumatic or air cleaning methods being used for the other 4
percent. The dust abatement regulations of the Occupational
Health and Safety Act will eventually cause a phasing out of
pneumatic cleaning over the next few years.
2-62
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About 18 percent of the coal which is cleaned by wet-
processing methods is thermally-dried before being loaded.
Drying is done to avoid freezing problems, to facilitate
handling, to improve quality, or to decrease transportation
costs. In 1972, there were 112 thermal drying plants in
this country which processed about 48 million metric tons of
coal. This represents an increase of about 11 percent from
the previous year. During the same year the total number of
coal cleaning plants decreased from 411 to 408, but the
number of coal cleaning plants with_ driers increased from
103 to 112. In such drying plants, a significant source of
pollution is the particulate emissions from the driers. To
meet the new regulations on particulate emissions, venturi
scrubbers (or the equivalent) must be installed.
The present turmoil in the related areas of energy supply
and environmental protection makes the prediction of future
growth trendfe in the coal industry rather uncertain. The
basic factor inhibiting the rapid growth of coal production
is the high sulfur content of most readily-available Eastern
coals. The Western portion of the nation has large reserves
of low sulfur coal but the high cost of transporting this
coal to the Midwestern and Eastern markets has, at least
until recently, precluded large scale use of this source.
The alternative to the use of low sulfur coal is flue gas
desulfurization technology, and an intensive effort is
currently being directed in this area. If the regulations
on sulfur dioxide emissions from electrical power plants are
adhered to and flue gas desulfurization technology lags, a
slowing in the growth rate of coal could result. On the
other hand, restrictions on imports of petroleum could
accelerate the demand for coal.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The emissions of primary
concern from coal cleaning plants are the particulates
resulting from drying operations. The available data
indicate that in 1971, only 1 percent of the coal drying
capacity was equipped with devices capable of removing at
least 99 percent of the particulate matter in the effluent
gas. Another 87 percent of the capacity was equipped with
low-energy cyclones which remove only about 90 percent of
the particulate matter. in order to meet the new
regulations, these cyclones will have to be replaced with
the high-energy venturi scrubbers.
The uncontrolled emission levels were calculated from the
emission factors for coal driers. The emission factors
given by the EPA are 5.9 kilograms of particulates per
metric ton of coal dried''for fluidized bed driers and 2.3
kilogram per metric ton for flash driers. Since the Bureau
of Mines data 'indicate that 64 percent of the coal driers
2-63
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are fluidized bed units and the rest are various designs
which should have emissions similar to flash driers, a
weighted average emission factor of 4.6 kilogram of
particulates per metric ton of dried coal was calculated.
The emissions at the 1972 control level are based on 90
percent particulate removal for 87 percent of the
throughput, and 99.5 percent particulate removal for 1
percent of the throughput, in the state-by-state breakdown,
this value has little meaning for the states with a small
number of plants because in these cases, the extent of
control may vary considerably from the national average
values used in the calculations.
The "allowable" emissions are the values that apply if all
throughput existing before January 1, 1974, just meets the
appropriate State Implementation Plan level, and all
throughput added after that date just meets the Federal New
Source standard. The calculation of the allowable emissions
for the plants existing in 1972 is detailed in Table 3-1-1.
These emissions were adjusted to 1974 by adding 4 percent
per year, which is equivalent to assuming that the growth in
throughput over these two years occurred through new plants
having the same size distribution as the existing plants.
Again, this could be considerably in error for some states
but should be quite good for the national total.
2-64
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Table 3-1-1.
Coal Cleaning industry Allowable Particulate Emissions
1972 Data
State
No.
of
Plants
Average Drying
Rate
Allowable Particulate
Emission
1,000
metric
ton/yr
kkg/hr
kg/hr/
plant
Alabama
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Totals
1
1
9
1
15
2
4
13
2
10
54
112
,137
294
722
,213
256
.74
289
388
327
408
448
129.8
33.6
82.6
138.5
29.1
8.6
33.1
44.5
37.2
46.8
51.3
16.4
13.4
23.2
23.2
18.2
8.7
18.2
-
-
21.0
21.03
Total
metric
ton/yr
158
130
2,018
224
2,628
168
701
675*
5802
2,028
10,951
20,261
0.2 grains/,03 cubic meter gas
85% control
Assumed, since no general regulation was included in SIP.
Control Technology and Costs. In most cases, the technology
used for removing this particulate matter will be venturi
scrubbers. if other technology is used for some of the
driers, its cost should be comparable to the cost of venturi
scrubbers, so that a cost analysis based on venturi
scrubbers should be valid.
A report by the Industrial Gas Cleaning institute (IGCI)
gives some cost information on venturi scrubbers for coal
driers. This information and some- calculations based on it
are summarized in Table 3-1-2. Annualized control costs and
industry operating data are detailed in Table 3-1-3.
2-65
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Table 3-1-2.
Coal Cleaning Industry Unit Cost Data
on Wet Scrubbers
(In 1973 Dollars)
NJ
Coal Drying Capacity (MT/Hr)
Gas Flow Rate (mVroln)'
Participate Removal (%)
Typical
Plant 1
227
5,378
99.64
Typical
Plant 2
68O
16,134
99.64
Operating Cost Components:
Opera 11ng 1abor
Maintenance materials
Power
Process water
Total O&M Costs
No. Units
ias hr/yr
2.45x10'
kwh/yr
Cost (1,OOO $/yr)
Low
Med i urn
High
No. Units
Cost ( LOCO $/yr)
Low
Medium
Basis: Industrial Gas Cleaning Institute report on Contract No. 68-O2-O3O1 for EPA, 9/3O/72.
Values for two units given were averaged.
1 At 19O*F and 14.16 psla.
' Escalated from 1971 to 1973 using CE Plant Cost Index (= 132.2 in 1971; 144.1 in June 1973)
High
O.63
2.39
12.26
2.55
17.83
O.88
2.66'
26.93
4.24
34.71
1 .25
2.93
49.OO
5.94
59. 12
125 hr/yr
8. 13x1O'
kwh/yr
193x10' 1/yr
O.63
6.47
4O.65
7.64
55.39
O.88
7. 19'
89. 5O
12.73
1 10.3O
1 .25
7.91
162.7
17.83
189.69
-------
0\
-j
Table 3-1-3.
Coal Cleaning Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (1.OOO MT/Hr) 5,650.6 7,218.5
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 « 2.77%
1985
7,399.9
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 1 (new plants)
Model 2
Model 3
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Hr)
31 .94
54 .51
1O1.22
31 .94
54.51
1O1.22
EMISSIONS (1.0OOMT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
Part iculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
56. 4O
24.93
4.71
2.52
1 .68
O.84
Pollutants Controlled
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
1980
70.21
1 .67
O. 12
4 .69
3.22
1 .47
1985
73.34
1 .75
0.26
4.78
3.27
1 .51
Control Technology
Venturi
Venturi
Venturi
Venturi
Venturi
Venturi
1971-85
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber
1976-85
27.84
49.72
33.82
15.9O
13.56
44.2O
3O. 13
14.07
-------
COAL GASIFICATION INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. One of the most
pressing aspects of the current national energy problem is
the present and projected shortage of natural gas. As a
result of this shortage, a considerable number of projects
are underway involving the manufacture of synthetic natural
gas (SNG) from the heavier, more plentiful energy sources.
Although SNG could be made from several energy sources,
including coal, coXe, and petroleum residuum, all of the
present commercial plans are based on coal.
For some industrial applications, fuel gases that have a
heating value which is considerably less than that of
natural gas or SNG can be used. Whereas the primary
constituent of natural gas is methane, the primary
combustible components of the "low Btu" gases are hydrogen
and carbon monoxide (see Figure 3-2-1). Coal gasification
processes involve the reaction of coal with steam and oxygen
to produce synthetic natural gas. Low Btu gases can be
produced by substituting air for oxygen as a reactant.
2-68
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Figure 3-2-1.
Simplified Flow Diagram of Coal Gasification
COAL
ASH.4-
GASIFICAT10N
RAW
GAS
SULFUR
REMOVAL
CO
SHIFT
CO
REMOVAL
METHANATION
T
STEAM
AIR OR 02
SULFUR-
SULFUR-*.
OXIDIZES -
CLAUS
PLANT
TAIL
GAS
TAIL
GAS
TREATMENT
AIR
LOW BTU GAS
SNG CLEAN TAIL GAS
NOTE: IN SOME VERSIONS, HjS AND C02 ARE REMOVED TOGETHER AFTER THE CO SHIFT.
2-69
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Production of both .SNG and low Btu gas are expected to be.
rather extensive, by 1985, even though commercial scale,
operations do not currently exist. However, projections of,
the amounts of synthetic-:-.fuel gases which.-will be produced.
at a given time in the future are subject to considerable,.
uncertainty because of the general turjnoil in the energy.
situation. .Most plants that are expected to be in
commercial operation by 1985 are already in the planning
stages, and initial plants are expected to be in operation
during the period 1977-78.
A total of 23 plants are expected to be producing SNG by
1985; plant capacities will range from 2.4 to 9.12 million
SCM/d. About 46 low Btu production plants are expected to
be in operation by 1985f with the average plant size
equivalent to approximately 5.47 million SCM/d.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Coal contains varying
amounts of sulfur (from less than 1 to 7 percent).
Essentially all sulfur contained in coal is converted into
gaseous species (i.e. H2S) during the gasification process.
These gases can be removed by a two-step process which
involves (1) the concentration of H2S through an amine
scrubbing process and (2) the conversion of the H2S to
elemental sulfur via a Claus sulfur recovery plant. The
Glaus sulfur recovery process is currently widely practiced
by petroleum refiners and natural gas processers.
Approximately 95 percent of the sulfur in coal is removable
by Claus plants. However, the remaining 5 percent escapes
from the Claus unit (tail gas) in the form of various sulfur
oxides (mostly sulfur dioxide) and must be controlled with
tail gas scrubbing to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions to
acceptable levels.
The emissions of sulfur oxides from the Claus plants were
calculated by assuming that all the sulfur in coal goes into
the gas and 95 percent of this sulfur is recovered by the
Claus plant. The emission factors without tail gas
treatment, in metric tons of sulfur dioxide per billion
standard cubic meters of gas, are 88.41 for synthetic
natural gas and 6.60 for low-Btu gas. The installation of
tail gas treatment facilities is assumed to reduce sulfur
dioxide emissions by 90 percent.
Control Technology and Costs. It is assumed that the cost of
bulk sulfur removal from a coal gasification plant is not a
cost associated with the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970
2-70
-------
but is a standard practice partially induced by the
byproduct value of elemental sulfur. In other words, even
before the 1970 Amendments were passed, coal gasification
would have had a Claus plant for bulK sulfur removal. The
additional facility which is attributable to the Clean Air
Act is the tail gas treatment plant. Since this situation
is analogous to that for natural gas plants, the investment
and operating costs for tail gas treatment plants were
developed based upon the analyses for petroleum refining and
natural gas processing.
Since a Claus plant normally recovers about 95 percent of
the sulfur fed to it and the tail gas treatment facility
recovers about 90 percent, the combined recovery for both
units operating together is about 99.5 percent. The credit
for the additional sulfur recovered by the tail gas
treatment plant is calculated by assuming a price of $10-$15
per ton of sulfur. Recent market analyses indicate that
this may be an optimistic assumption.
investment and annual operating and maintenance costs for
selected model-sized coal gasification plants, and total
industry costs for controlling sulfur dioxide from plants
expected to come on stream between 1977 and 1985 are given
in Table 3-2-1.
2-71
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Table 3-2-1.
Coal Gasification Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (MT/Day) 0 604.4
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 22,6%
1985
1 ,386.3
1971-85
1976-85
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
SNG
Low BTU Gas Plants
Model Plant Sizes
(1O- SCM/Day)
70,210,247
11.2
EMISSIONS (I.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Sulfur Oxides
Legislated Controls:
Sulfur Oxides
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
Pollutants Controlled
Sulfur Oxides
Sulfur Oxides
1980
1 ,49B
1 .542
14.84
8.40
3.58
4.82
1985
4.315
4.456
11 .22
26.26
15.82
10.44
Control Technology
Claus Plant; Tail Gas
Treatment
Claus Plant; Tall Gas
Treaxment
1971-85
1976-85
120.32
121.24
68. 19
53. OS
12O.32
121.24
68. 19
53.05
-------
NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY
Introduction Characteristics and Capacities. The natural gas
industry may be viewed as having two major sectors:
production and transmission/distribution. The production
sector is dominated by large firms, but a large number of
smaller firms do contribute a sizable share of the total
output. The transportation/distribution sector is primarily
organized as public utility companies which operate under
Federal and/or state regulations. Although many gas utility
companies are now integrating back into production, the
basic structure of the industry remains as described here.
As of January 1, 1974, the 763 natural gas processing plants
in the United States had a total capacity of 2.11 billion
cubic meters per day. The actual production rate of these
plants in 1973 was 1.57 billion cubic meters per day. For
each of the last two years, the natural gas production rate
has decreased slightly. The rate of change in production
rate since 1967 has been at an increase of only about 4
percent per year. Most projections of natural gas supply
assume little or no increase over the next several years.
The production of petroleum (crude oil) is almost always
associated vith the production of substantial quantities of
natural gas. The distinction between "oil wells" and "gas
wells" is an arbitrary one based on the ratio of oil-to-gas
produced. Natural gas is primarily methane, but the raw gas
contains varying amounts of heavier hydrocarbons and other
gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen, helium, and
hydrogen sulfide. In order to obtain a natural gas of
pipeline quality, much of these undesired components must be
removed. The heavier hydrocarbons, which can be
conveniently condensed, are combined with the liquid (oil)
production and sent to refineries for further processing;
the remaining gas is normally purified at the well site.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Hydrogen sulfide is the
impurity of concern from an air pollution standpoint.
Because of the corrosive, poisonous, and odorous nature of
hydrogen sulfide, only very low concentrations of it are
permitted in the natural gas product. Approximately 5
percent of the natural gas produced in the United States
requires some form of treatment to remove hydrogen sulfide.
The hydrogen sulfide content of natural raw gas varies from
trace quantities to over 50 percent by volume.
Although removal of the hydrogen sulfide from natural gas is
universally practiced, recovery of the corresponding sulfur
in elemental form to avoid air pollution is not universally
practiced. In many of the larger operations, Glaus plants
2-73
-------
have been installed for this purpose, but in many plants the
hydrogen sulfide is merely incinerated and flared, resulting
in emissions of sulfur oxides.
For the natural gas plants which have Claus plants, the
source of the sulfur oxides emitted is the Claus plant tail
gas. The amount of this emission corresponds to about 6
percent of the sulfur fed to the Claus plant, as estimated
from the capacities of the Claus plants associated with
natural gas plants. For the natural gas plants which do not
have Claus plants, the sources of the sulfur oxides emitted
are the flares in which the hydrogen sulfide removed from
the gas is burned. The only available estimate of the
emission from such plants which was made by EPA in 1972, was
852,000 metric tons of sulfur dioxide per year.
Control Technology and Costs. Because of the severe
limitations on the hydrogen sulfide content of pipeline gas,
all natural gas processing plants that handle the sour gas
already have the amine scrubbing facilities or equivalent to
remove it from the raw gas. The technology needed to
prevent hydrogen sulfide from causing air pollution consists
of:
• A Claus sulfur plant in which the hydrogen sulfide is
converted to elemental sulfur.
• Treatment facilities to remove sulfur dioxide from the
Claus plant tail gas.
The investment and operating costs for these processes were
discussed in the section on refinery fuel gas burning; the
credit for the byproduct sulfur obtained with these
processes was also discussed in that section.
In 1973/ there were 84 Claus plants in the natural gas
processing industry. These plants had a total sulfur
capacity of 6,249 metric tons per day, and an actual
production rate of 2,443 metric tons per day. The gas
throughput associated with this- sulfur recovery was 36
million cubic meters per day, or only about 2 percent of the
total natural gas production.
Annualized control costs and industry quality data are
detailed in Table 3-3-1.
2-74
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^J
Ul
Table 3-3-1.
Natural Gas Processing Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (1.OOO MT/Yr) 2,606.8 2,736.3
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 1.72%
1985
2,949.3
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Model 5
Model 6
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
5.88
34.31
272.81
5.88
34.31
272.81
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Sulfur Oxides
Legislated Controls:
Sulfur Oxides
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
1.348.37
414.83
27.03
29. 16
12.86
16. 3O
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Sulfur Dioxide
Sulfur Dioxide
Sulfur Dioxide
Sulfur Dioxide
Sulfur Dioxide
Sulfur Dioxide
198O
1 ,468.41
6.47
4.53
43.09
18.35
24.74
1985
1.536.OO
6.92
2.21
46.59
19.61
26.98
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber and Claus-Unit
Scrubber and Claus Unit
Scrubber and Claus Unit
1971-85
1976-85
149.67
488.79
209.73
279.O6
51 .38
422.94
180.1O
242.84
-------
FEED MILLS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Feed manufacture
is the process of converting the grain and other
constituents into the form, size, and consistency desired in
the finished feed. Feed milling involves the receiving,
conditioning
-------
Mill 'Participates
Operations Generated(%)
Rail unloading 25
Collectors for product recovery dust control 21
Truck unloading 15
Truck loading (bulk loadout) 11
Bucket elevator leg vents 5
Bin vents 5
Scale vents 3
Grinding system (feeder, spills) 4
incinerator (Waste paper) 2
Small boiler (oil) 1
Rail car loading (bulk loadout) 1
Miscellaneous (conveying spouts, pellet
mills, feeder lines') 7
Total Feed Mill Dust Emission 100
Unloading of bulk incredients is generally acknowledged to
be one of the most troublesome dust sources in feed mills.
Centrifugal collectors used for product recovery and dust
control represent the second largest emission source.
Factors affecting emission rates from the ingredient
receiving area of a feed mill include the type of grain and
other ingredients handled, the methods used to unload the
ingredient, and the configuration of the receiving pits.
Control Technology and Costs. It is estimated that 88.1
percent of the volume handled in pellet-cooler operations
and 56 percent of the volume handled in griding operations
have some type of emission control, largely the use of
cyclones. In receiving, transfer, and storage operations,
roughly one-third of the total volume is controlled by
either cyclones or fabric filters, while shipping has only a
few installations that have installed controls.
Table 3-4-2 shows the estimated sales, capacity, and
emissions for the feed mills industry up to the year 1985.
The table also shows the costs of controls on an annualized,
investment and cash requirements basis.
2-77
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-»J
00
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 3-4-2.
Feed Mills Industry Data Summary
1975
198O
Capacity (Million MT/Yr) 143.99 166.14
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 3,5O%
1985
193.1O
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Feed Mills
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Partlculates
Legislated Controls:
Partlculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
4O.90.14O
1975
1.O24.48
423.55
395.54
2O4.O4
149.34
54.71
Pollutants Generated
P~art1culates
198O
1,192.54
24.54
81 .76
342.73
247.99
94.74
1985
1,353.32
27.87
38. 13
382.88
273.15
109.73
Control Technology
Fabric Filter
1971-85
1976-85
2,077.58
3,795.93
2,737. 18
1,058.76
941.70
3,348.18
2.411.26
936.91
-------
KRAFT PULP INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The Kraft pulp
industry process mill size distributions are shown in Table
3-5-1. Control cost estimates are based on the "model
plant" range size of 454, 907, and 1,361 ADMT/day.
Table 3-5-1
Kraft Pulp Mill Size Distributions
Range of Mill
Capacities
(ADMT/day)
0.770
771-1088
1089-2359
K umber
of
Mills
Total
Cap. of
Mills in
Size Range
SADMT/day)
Average
Mill
Capacity
(ADMT/day)
Model
Mill
Capacity
(ADMT/day)
71
29
25
31,809
24,675
33,736
448.0
850.9
1349.4
454
907
1361
Sources: Publishing Co., Inc. "Lockwood's Directory of the
Paper and Allied Trades", 97th Edition, New York, 1973;
Paper Processing, August, 1974, p.36; Pulp and Paper,
"Profiles of the North American Pulp and Paper industry",
June 30, 1974, p.27.
Conventional kraft pulping processes are highly alkaline in
nature and utilize sodium hydroxide and sodium sulfide as
cooking chemicals. One modification used for the
preparation of highly purified, or high-alpha cellulose,
pulp utilizes an acid hydrolysis of the wood chips prior to
the alkaline cook; this is the prehydrolysis kraft process.
Kraft processes enjoy the advantages of being applicable for
nearly all species of wood and of having an effective means
of recovery of spent cooking chemicals for reuse in the
process.
Kraft pulping, in simplified terms, consists of seven
separate processes, as shown in Figure 3-5-1. The digesting
liquor in this process flow is a solution of sodium
hydroxide and sodium sulfide. The spent liquor (black
liquor) is concentrated, then sodium sulfate is added to
make up for chemical losses, and the liquor is burned in a
recovery furnace, producing a smelt of sodium carbonate and
sodium sulfide. The smelt is dissolved in water to form
2-79
-------
green liquor, to which is added quicklime to convert the
sodium carbonate back to sodium hydroxide/ thus
reconstituting the cooking liquor. The spent lime cake
(calcium carbonate) is recalcined in a rotary lime kiln to
produce quicklime (calcium oxide) for recausticizing the
green liquor.
2-80,
-------
Figure.3-5-1.
Kraft Pulp Mills Production Processes
POLLUTANTS
2-81
-------
Included in the uses of kraft pulp are the production of
linerboard, solid-fiber board, high-strength bags, wrapping
paper, high-grade white paper, and food-packaging materials.
Emission sources and Pollutants. Main emission .sources in
the kraft process are the recovery furnace, lime kiln,
smelting dissolving tank, and the power boilers. The Kraft
pulping economics depend upon reclamation of chemicals from
the recovery furnace and lime kiln. Hence, emissions from
these processes are controlled to minimize losses of
chemicals.
Participates and gases are emitted from the various sources
of kraft process. Numerous variables affect the quality and
quantity of emission from each source of the kraft pulping
process. There are several sources of emissions in the
process and the applicable control technology and attainable
efficiencies of the control methods depend on the quantity
and quality of emissions. The gaseous emissions occur in
varying mixtures, and are mainly hydrogen sulfide, methyl
mercaptan, dimethyl sulfide, dimethyl disulfide, and some
sulfur dioxide. The sulfur compounds are generally referred
to as reduced sulfur compounds. These compounds are very
odorous, being detectable at a concentration of a few parts
per billion. The particulate emissions are largely sodium
sulfate, calcium compounds, and fly ash.
The rates of uncontrolled and controlled emissions of
particulate, total reduced sulfur (TRS), and sulfur dioxide
from various sources of kraft pulping processing in 1974
were as shown in Table 3-5-2.
2-82
-------
Table 3-5-2.
Rates of Emissions from Kraft Process
Uncontrolled
Process
Digester
washer
Multiple Effect
Evaporator
Recovery Furnace
Smelt Tank
Lime Kiln
Power Boiler*
Participates
{kg/ADMT)
0.0
0.0
0.0
60.0
7.8
34.0
35.3
TRS
(kg/ADMT)
0.72
0.05
0.18
2.95
0.05
0.22
0.0
Sulfur Dioxide
(Kg/ADMT)
Trace
Trace
Trace
1.2
Trace
Trace
19.7
Totals
137.1
4.17
20.9
Controlled
Digester 0.0
washer 0.0
Multiple Effect
Evaporator 0.0
Recovery Furnace 2.00
Smelt Tank 0.25
Lime Kiln 0.50
Power Boiler 2.47
Trace
Trace
Trace
0.25
Trace
Trace
0.0
Trace
Trace
Trace
1.2
Trace
Trace
10.5
Totals
5.22
0.25
11.7
» Fuel requirement - 3.09 x 10T Btu/ADMT. Coal provides
35%, oil 27%, gas 26%, and bark/wood 12% of the energy.
Heating values * coal 13,000 Btu/lb, oil 150,000 Btu/ft*,
and bark/wood 4,500 Btu/f3. Sulfur content * coal 1.9% and
oil 1.8%. Ash content » coal 8.1% and bark/wood 2.9%.
2-83
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The process weight-emission limitation concept is considered
unapplicable to chemical pulping because the nature and size
range of particulates, as well as the characteristics of the
processes, are vastly different. Provisions of the
Washington and Oregon Regulations applicable to pulp mills
are used in "this report. The regulations include the
following control provisions:
1. Total reduced sulfur (TRS) compounds from the recovery
furnace: No more than 1 kg/ADMT (1972} reduced to no
more than 0.25 kg/ADMT by 1975.
2. Noncondensible gases from the digesters and multiple
effect evaporators: Collected and burned in the lime
kiln or proven equivalent.
3. Particulates from the recovery furnace: Ho more than 2
kg/ADMT.
4. Particulates from the lime kiln: Mo more than 0.5
kg/ADMT.
5. Particulates from smelt tank: No more than 0.25
kg/ADMT.
6. Emissions from power boiler will meet the Federal
emission standard.
Control Technology and Costs. The cost estimates for kraft
pulping take into account the costs associated with each
constituent process. The mill size categories, emissions,
and control technologies that have been assumed for each
process are shown in Table 3-5-3. This table also presents
the total annual emissions and costs estimated for the kraft
pulping industry in 1975, 1980, and 1985. The estimated
costs of air pollution control are significantly higher than
previous estimates because the costs to control TRS and
sulfur dioxide were not estimated earlier.
2-84
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to
to
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 3-5-3.
Kraft Pulp Industry Data Summary
1975
198O
Capacity (1.0OO ADMT/Yr) 84,920 108,87O
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = S.O6%
1985
128,67O
(These are sequential processes; that Is, a unit of pulp must go through each of these processes
to be manufactured.)
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Digester
Stock Washer
Evaporator
Recovery Furnace
Smelt Tank
Lime K1ln
Power Boiler
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Model Plant Sizes
(ADMT/day)
454;9O7;1,361
1975
Pollutant Controlled
TRS
TRS
TRS
TRS, Particulates
Particulates
Partlculates
Particulates, Sulfur
Dioxide
198O
1985
Control Technology
Incinerate in Lime Kiln
Incinerate in Recovery
Furnace
Incinerate in Lime K1ln
ESP & Venturi Scrubber
Orifice Scrubber
Venturi Scrubber
ESP & Double Alkal1
Scrubber
1971-85
1976-85
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Legislated Controls:
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
518
35
263
35.
420.
394,
187.
2O6.
.53
.43
.23
,8O
.12
.36
.47
89
715
48
122
48
85
718
328
39O.
. 19
.87
.01
.84
.72
.72
.66
.06
842.
57.
143.
57.
48.
821 .
361 .
459.
.62
.58
.74
54
62
18
37
81
2,842.13 1,313.41
7,795.90 6,919.16
3,542.82 3,117.88
4, 253. OS 3, SO 1.29
-------
NEUTRAL SULFITE SEMICHEMICAL PAPER INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The size
distribution of neutral sulfite semichemical (NSSCi pulp
mills is classified into three size ranges; 0-181, 182-363,
and 364-635 air-dried metric tons (ADMT) of air-dried pulp
per day. The number of plants in each size r«ange and their
capacities are:
Capacity Average Model Mill
Range NO. Capacity Mill Capacity Capacity
(ADMT/day) Mills (ADMT/day) (ADMT/day) .(ADMT/day)
0 - 181 23 2,488 108 113
182 - 363 24 5,455 227 277
364 - 635 8 3,376 422 454
Source's: Paper Processing, August 1974- p.36; Hendrickson,
E.R., Roberson, J.E., and Koogler, J.E., "Control
of Atmospheric Emissions in the Wood Pulping
Industry", PB-190352, Environmental Engineering,
Inc. and J.E. Sirrine Company, March 15, 1970.
Semichemical pulps are produced by digesting with reduced
amounts of chemicals, followed by mechanical treatment to
complete the fiber separation, The most prevalent
semichemical pulping process is the neutral sulfite
semichemical process. In this process, sodium sulfite in
combination with sodium bicarbonate, or ammonium sulfite
buffered with ammonium hydroxide, are used as cooking
chemicals. These cooks are slightly alkaline in contrast to
the highly alkaline kraft, and highly or moderately acidic
sulfite cooks. The semichemical pulping processes are used
for production of high yield pulps ranging from 60 to 85
percent of dry wood weight charged to the digestion vessel,
and can include kraft and sulfite processes suitably
modified to reduce pulping action in order to produce
higher-than-normal yield pulps.
Semichemical pulps are used in the preparation of
corrugating medium, coarse wrapping paper, linerboard,
hardboard, and roofing felt, as well as fine grades of paper
and other products.
2-86
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Emission Sources and Pollutants. Discussions and
calculations of air emissions from the NSSC process are
limited to participate and sulfur dioxide. The used cooking
liquors are discharged to sewers or in some cases they are
evaporated and cross-recovered with an adjacent Xraft mill
or treated in a fluidized-bed system. In this study, the
fluidized-bed combustion was assumed for the liquor
treatment.
Control Technology and Costs. This report assumed that
particulate emissions from the recovery furnace and power
boilers burning coal and bark/wood, and sulfur dioxide
emission from power boilers burning high sulfur coal and oil
were subject to control. To meet the particulate emissions
standard from recovery furnaces, a control efficiency of at
least 90 percent is required for the control system. A
sodium-based, double alkali system was assumed for the
control of sulfur dioxide from coal and oil burning power
boilers.
Control methods for new plants were selected as follows:
Process Pollutant Control Methods
Recovery Furnace Particulate Electrostatic
Precipitator
Power Boiler Particulate Electrostatic
Sulfur Dioxide Precipitator
Double alkali
All new plants were assumed to be in the 364 to 635 ADMT/day
capacity range.
Table 3-6-1 shows the estimated future capacity and process
'characteristics of NSSC pulp mills. The emissions
statistics are also shown, along with annual investment and
cost estimates.
The costs estimated in this report are nearly ten times
those reported earlier since previous estimates did not
include the cost of controlling sulfur oxides.
2-87
-------
I
00
00
Table 3-6-1.
Neutral Sulflte Sem1chemlca1 Paper Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (Million ADMT/Yr) 4.O6 5.19
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 4.93%
1985
6.O9
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Boiler
Model Plant Size
(10OO ADMT/year)
38, SO, 150
Pollutants Controlled
Particulates, Sulfur
Dioxide
Control Technology
ESP, Double Alkal1
Recovery Furnaces 38, 8O, 150
i
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr) 1975
1971 Controls:
Part iculates
Sulfur Oxides
Legislated Controls:
Part Iculates
Sulfur Oxides
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
21 ,
2.
9.
2.
8.
54 .
24.
29.
6O
12
17
15
45
33
57
76
Particulates ESP
198O 1985 1971-85
29
2
0.
2.
14.
91 .
37.
53.
.77
.93
.98
.94
78
42
94
48
34
3
1.
3.
8.
105.
44.
6O.
.86
.43
, 14
.43
88 313.49
53 1 ,O12. 11
57 431.OO
96 581 . 12
1976-!
13O. 10
885. 17
367.73
517.44
-------
PRINTING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Six major types
of printing establishments were considered in this report:
book printing and publishing; commercial printing by
letterpress,- commercial printing by lithography; and
commercial printing by gravure. Newspapers were excluded
because inks containing little, if any, volatile solvents
are employed. Nearly 27,000 establishments comprise the six
groups,- 80 percent of these are small, employing fewer than
20 people.
Estimates of air pollution abatement costs were based on the
application of controls (thermal incinerators! by the 50
largest establishments in each of the first five categories.
Perodical and book plants accounted for about 70 percent of
the annual volume of ink consumed, which amounted to about
18 million kilograms per year or 181.6 kilo-kilograms per
plant annually.
Both commercial letterpress and lithography represent a
large number of smaller establishments, about 13,000 and
8,000 facilities, respectively. While the 50 largest
establishments in each of the categories comprise only 40
percent and 25 percent of the annual volume of ink consumed,
respectively, they tend to use web-processing techniques
exclusively, which are a primary contributer to hydrocarbon
emissions, virtually all volatile components (approximately
40 percent by weight) of the ink are driven off during the
drying or curing stage of the web printing process.
All commercial gravure printers also use the web printing
methods. There were 127 establishments in 1972 representing
about 114 million kilograms of ink usage.
In summary, cost estimates were derived on the basis of
applying controls to 327 establishments corresponding to an
average plant size of 499 metric tons of ink consumed per
year.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric hydrocarbon
emissions associated with printing are attributable to the
volatile organic components of the various types of inks
employed. The volatile content ranges from about 40 percent
(heat-set letterpress, lithographic, and screen process
inks) to more than 60 percent for flexographic and gravure.
The percentage of the volatile content released to the
atmosphere can vary widely in the absence of controls. For
purposes of this report, full volatilization is assumed
without control. On this basis, an average-sized
establishment that consumes approximately 499 metric tons of
2-89
-------
ink annually will generate about 204 metric tons of
hydrocarbon emissions per year.
Control Technology and Costs. Suitable controls (thermal
incinerators) provide about 95 percent removal efficiency.
Thermal incineration with heat exchange units could be
employed to achieve desired levels of hydrocarbon emission
control. Although carbon absorption techniques present
advantages because of the possibility of solvent
regeneration, they are difficult to apply to printing
because inks often consist of a mixture of volatile
solvents, making subsequent separation steps necessary.
Capital and annual operating and maintenance costs were
estimated on the basis of applying a control unit designed
to handle approximately 109 kilograms of hydrocarbon
emissions per hour (or about 227 metric tons per year).
Installation and equipment, including heat exchanger, are
approximately $70,000 for such a unit, operating costs are
about $16,000 per year. Annualized control costs and
industry operating statistics are detailed in Table 3-7-1.
2-90
-------
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 3-7-1.
Printing Industry Data Summary
1975
198O
Capacity (1,OOO MT/Yr) 177.42 223.39
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 5.12%
1985
264.15
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Commercial Printing -
Letterpress and
L i thography
Model Plant Sizes
(Metric Tons)
550
EMISSIONS d.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Hydrocarbons
Legislated Controls:
Hydrocarbons
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
99.36
1OO.11
5. 15
6.60
3.67
2.94
Pollutants Controlled
Hydrocarbons
1980
137.23
136.30
2.72
11 .74
6.4O
5.34
1985
161.91
8.08
O.94
13.47
7.17
6.31
Control Technology
Thermal Incinerators
1971-85
1976-85
44. O3
126.39
G8.71
57.67
21.51
111.36
6O. 14
51 .22
-------
CHLOR-ALKALI MERCURY CELLS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. High-purity
caustic soda and chlorine are coproducts in the electrolytic
process which uses flowing mercury metals as a moving
cathode. The caustic soda product finds major markets in
those chemical manufacturing operations where high-purity
and freedom from sodium chloride and metal impurities are in
demand. Of the two basic processes, e.g., mercury cell and
diaphragm cell for producing chlorine, only the one
employing the mercury cell 'results in mercury emissions.
Chlorine is produced almost entirely by the electrolysis of
fused chlorides for aqueous solutions of alkali-metal
chlorides. Chlorine is produced at the anode, while
hydrogen and potassium hydroxide or sodium hydroxide derive
from processes taking place at the cathode. Anode and
cathode products must be separated, such as in a cell which
employs liquid mercury metal as an intermediate cathode.
The use of the mercury cell in the United States has grown
from 5 percent of the total installed chlorine capacity in
1946 toward a maximum of 28 percent of the installed
chlorine capacity through 1968. The 1974 capacity was
estimated at 7,863 metric tons of chlorine per day at 31
plants. However, since then, the number of operating plants
has been decreasing. The size distribution of these plants
is given below:
Number of
Plants
5
10
8
5
3
31
Capacity Range
(Chlorine Production)
Metric Tons/Day
0
90.8
182
273
455
90.7
181
272
454
580
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The major sources of direct
emissions of mercury to the atmosphere are the hydrogen by-
product stream, end-box ventilation system, and cell-room
ventilation air. The minimum .known treatment of the
byproduct hydrogen gas that leaves the decomposer consists
of cooling the stream to 110°F followed by partial removal
of the resulting mercury mist. For hydrogen saturated with
2-92
-------
mercury vapor at this temperature/ the daily vapor loss is
estimated to be 3,4 kg of mercury vapor per 100 metric tons
of chlorine produced. The entrainment of condensed mercury
in the hydrogen stream vill result in additional emissions.
The estimated uncontrolled emission of mercury vapor and
mercury mist, after minimum treatment has occurred, is
estimated to be up to 25 kg per 100 metric tons of chlorine
produced.
Mercury vapor and mercury compounds are collected from the
end-boxes, the mercury pumps, and the end-box ventilation
system. Preliminary results of source testing by EPA
indicate that the mercury emissions from an untreated or
inadequately treated end-box ventilation system range from 1
to 8 kg per 100 metric tons of chlorine produced.
In addition to cooling the cell room, the cell-room
ventilation system provides a means of reducing the cell-
room mercury-vapor concentration to vithin the recommended
Threshold Limit value (TLV) for human exposure to mercury
vapor. On the basis of data obtained from operating plants,
it has been estimated that mercury emissions from the cell-
room ventilation system vary from 0.2 to 2.5 kg per day per
100 metric tons of daily chlorine capacity, assuming a
concentration equal to the TLV of 50 micrograms per cubic
meter of ventilation air.
The Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that
uncontrolled emissions from the production of chlorine in
mercury cells averages approximately 20 kg of mercury per
100 metric tons of chlorine produced.
Control Technology and Costs. Control technologies and cost
estimates are based on the consideration that the maximum
daily mercury emission from any single site shall not exceed
2,300 grams; this assumption is in compliance with the
National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants
promulgated by EPA. Control techniques applicable to the
hydrogen gas stream include: cooling, condensation, and
demisting; depleted brine scrubbing- hypochlorite scrubbing-
absorption on molecular sieve; and adsorption on treated
activated carbon.
With appropriate modification, the control techniques
applicable to the end-box ventilation stream include
cooling, condensing, and demisting; depleted brine
scrubbing; and hypochlorite scrubbing. It is judged that
the molecular-sieve adsorption system will become applicable
in the near future to the end-box ventilation-gas stream.
This control technique will permit compliance with the
hazardous emission standard.
2-93
-------
Mercury vapor from the cell-room ventilation air can be
minimized by strict adherence to recommended good
housekeeping and operating procedures. No other control
technique is commercially tested at this time. All mercury
emissions could be eliminated by the conversion of mercury-
cell plants to the use of diaphragm cells plus a special
caustic soda purification system. Such conversion is
presently judged to be an unacceptable alternative due to
the very high estimated cost. Control costs were estimated
on a plant-by-plant basis. Investment per plant ranges from
$123,000 to just over $1.3 million, depending on capacity
and operating characteristics. Annualized control costs and
industry statistics are detailed in Table 3-8-1.
2-94
-------
Table 3-8-1
Chlor-Alkali Mercury Cell Industry Data Summary
to
\0
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (MT/Day) 7,447 7,986
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 1.59%
1985
7,489
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Mercury Cell Electrolysis 232
EMISSIONS (MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Mercury Gases 8> Mists
Legislated Controls:
Mercury Gases 8> Mists
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1.975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
1975
1O.58
5.30
4.79
5.52
2.63
2.89
Gases & Mists
1980
12.7O
1 .74
O.42
1O.OS
4.57
5.48
introl led
i
I985
1 .85
1 .63
O
9.75
4.6O
5. 15
Control Technology
Scrubbing
1971-85 1976-i
28.26 12.O9
1O4.98 92.23
48. 6O 42.38
56.38 49.85
-------
NITRIC ACID INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. Nitric acid is
used in the manufacture of ammonium nitrate and in numerous
other chemical processes. Ammonium nitrate, which is used
as both a fertilizer and in explosives, accounts for about
80 percent of the nitric acid consumption. Nitric acid is
produced by oxidation of ammonia, followed by absorption of
the reaction products in dilute acid solution. Most nitric
acid plants in the United States are designed to manufacture
acid with a concentration of 55 to 65 percent, which may
subsequently be dehydrated to produce 99 percent acid.
At the beginning of 1974, 46 privately-owned companies
operated 76 nitric acid plants in the contiguous 48 states,
in addition to seven plants operated for the U.S. Government
by five companies. These government-owned plants are
included in cost estimates as part of the nitric acid
industry by inflating the private costs by 10 percent.
Nearly all nitric acid produced in the United States is for
domestic consumption.
Emissions sources and Pollutants. Nitrogen oxides, the
primary pollutants of concern in the production of nitric
acid, are emitted in the tail gas from the absorption tower.
Numerous variations on the basic nitric acid production
process affect both the emissions and the difficulty of
control. Two of the more important variables are the amount
of excess oxygen present in the absorption tower and the
pressure under which the absorption tower operates. Many
plants practice partial pollution abatement (decolorization^
in accordance with local regulatory agencies. Under this
practice, the highly visible reddish-brown nitrogen dioxide
is reduced to colorless nitric oxide. Although visible
emissions are reduced, the practice does nothing to prevent
emission of nitrogen oxides to the atmosphere.
Emissions from nitric acid plants consist of the oxides of
nitrogen in concentrations of about 3,000 ppm nitrogen
dioxide and nitric oxide, and minute amounts of nitric acid
mist. Emissions from nitric acid plants are typically in
the order of 22 kg nitrogen oxides per metric ton of 100
percent acid produced.
Control Technology and Costs. Catalytic reduction with
natural gas is a feasible and proven control technology used
in nitric acid plants both here and abroad. The absorber
tail gas is mixed with 38 percent excess natural gas and
passed over a platinum or palladium catalyst. Catalytic
reduction with ammonia or hydrogen has the advantage of
being selective in the sense that only the nitrogen oxides
2-96
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are reduced, in addition to higher costs, reduction with
ammonia requires close temperature control to prevent the
reformation of nitrogen oxides at higher temperatures or the
formation of explosive ammonium nitrate at lower
.temperatures.
Table 3-9-1 shows the estimated future sales, capacities,
and outputs for the nitric acid industry. Also shown in the
table are the reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions for the
selected years, and the three major cost categories;
annualized, investment, and cost requirements.
2-97
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Table 3-9-1.
Nitric Add Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
to
vo
00
Capacity (1,OOO MT/Oay) 25.17 34.09
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 5.11%
1985
4O.79
1971-85
1976-85
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Ammonia Oxidation
Model Plant Sizes
(LOCO MT/Day)
141 .2;361. 1;571.7;
940.0
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Nitrogen Oxides
Legislated Controls:
Nitrogen Oxides
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
143.17
65.04
16.OO
15. 15
6.64
8.51
Pollutants Controlled
Nitrogen Oxides
198O
193.02
15.04
4.53
27.59
10.92
16.67
1985
232.18
18/12
2.33
32.48
12.37
2O. 11
Control Technology
Catalytic Reduction
1971-85
8O.28
3OO.1O
119.79
180.31
1976-85
37.76
27O.61
107.OO
163.61
-------
PAINT MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The manufacturing
of paints involves the mixing or dispersion of pigments in
oil, resin, resin solution or latex at room temperature.
Mixing is then followed by the addition of specified
proportions of organic solvents or water to obtain the
desired viscosity.
In 1972, there were 1,556 plants manufacturing paint
products in the United States. Production is not divided
evenly, with approximately 30 percent of the plants
accounting for nearly 90 percent of production.
The average-sized plant accounts for about 6.06 million
liters per year or roughly 22,740 liters per day. The
balance of the plants were omitted from control cost
considerations because they collectively account for only
about 379 million liters per year, or about 7 percent of the
daily production of the average plant in the larger
category.
Current trends in the industry should decrease the future
hydrocarbon emission levels associated with paint
manufacturing. These include the use of water-based paints
and new application techniques such as powder coating.
These developments will continue to have a negative impact
on the demand for organic solvent-based paints- it is
estimated that water-based paints currently represent about
25 percent of total production volume.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Air pollutants from paint
manufacturing are hydrocarbons originating from organic
solvents and particulates from paint pigments. About 908
grams of particulates are emitted per metric ton of pigment
dispersed. Hydrocarbon emission estimates assume that 75
percent of the 1975 volume of paint was solvent based.
Control Technology and Costs. Control of hydrocarbon
emissions from paint production can be accomplished by these
methods: flame combustion, thermal combustion, catalytic
combustion, and absorption. Thermal combustion (with heat
exchange) is considered the most feasible method of control;
equipment incorporating heat exchange devices was chosen
because of current anticipated future fuel shortages and
assumed removal efficiences of 95 percent. Catalytic
combustion units, while highly promising from the standpoint
of lower fuel requirements (but higher initial investment
costs), still present technical operating problems.
Baghouses (fabric filters) are suitable for control of
2-99
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particulate emissions from pigments; particulate removal
efficiences of more than 95 percent are readily achieved.
Estimates for air pollution control for the total industry
were based on assumed compliance by plants averaging about
7.58 million liters of paint production per year, fewer than
500 plants of this capacity were assumed to be in operation.
Future cost predictions are complicated by the emergence of
technological trends away from the use of solvent-based
paints. Annualized control costs and production statistics
are detailed in Table 3-10-1.
2-100
-------
to
(-•
o
Table 3-1O-1.
Paint Manufacturing Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (Million Liters/Day) 11.05 11.32
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 1 . 3O%
1985
1 1 .56
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Paint Production
Paint Production
Model Plant Sizes
(Liters/Day)
22,740
22,740
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Hydrocarbons
Legislated Controls:
Hydrocarbons
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capi tal
O&M
1975
9O8.48
931 .94
6.81
8. 29
3.68
4.61
Pollutants Controlled
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons
1980
1 . 1O4.O6
1 , 1 13.98
1 .35
12.33
5.33
6.99
1985
1 , 150.33
1 ,152.62
12.75
5.60
7. 14
Control Technology
Thermal Incinerator
Scrubber
1971-85
1976-85
34. 4O
137.94
59.99
77.95
1 1 .78
119.36
51 .73
67.64
-------
PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The major end
products of the phosphate fertilizer industry are ammonium
phosphates, triple superphosphate, normal superphosphate,
and granular mixed fertilizers. Phosphoric acid and
superphosphoric acid are intermediate products.
All phosphate fertilizers are processed from ground
phosphate rock treated with sulfuric acid to produce either
normal superphosphate or wet-process phosphoric acid. A
phosphoric acid intermediate may then be reacted with
ammonia to produce diammononium phosphate and other ammonium
phosphates, or reacted with ground phosphate rock to
manufacture triple superphosphate. Superphosphoric acid,
produced by dehydration of wet-process phosphoric acid, is
used in preparing some mixed fertilizers. Granular mixed
fertilizers are made from either normal superphosphate or
triple superphosphate, with ammonia and potash. Bulk-
blended mixed fertilizers are manufactured by physically
mixing particles of other fertilizer components and liquid
mixed fertilizers. Bulk blends and liquids are not major
sources of air pollution and are not considered in
estimating the industry abatement cost.
The phosphate fertilizer industry is characterized by a
number of large, modern efficient plants located near the
source of raw materials. in general, these plants
manufacture the more concentrated forms of fertilizer,
diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP}.
These industries are particularly concentrated in Florida.
Smaller plants, located near the retail markets, manufacture
the less concentrated forms: granulated mixed fertilizer
(NPK) and normal superphosphate (NSP). The smaller NSP,
NPK, and bulk-blend plants are located in the farming
states. At the beginning of 1973, there were 33 DAP plants,
13 TSP plants, 45 NSP plants, and 344 ammoniation-
granulation (NPK) plants. in addition, about 5,000 bulk-
blending plants were operating in 1973.
Due to the seasonal demand for fertilizer, many plants
manufacturing NSP and NPK operate only a portion of the
year, in contrast, those plants manufacturing DPA and TSP
generally operate year-round.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from phosphate
fertilizer processing plants are mainly fluorides (in the
form of hydrogen fluoride and silicon tetrafluoride) and
particulates. Fluorides are generated in the processes of
2-102
-------
acidulation of phosphate rock which contains calcium
fluoride.
In the phosphate fertilizer industry, participate emissions
of significance originate from: phosphate rock grinding.
calcination, drying, and transfer processes, triple
superphosphate manufacture/ ammonium phosphate production/
normal superphosphate manufacture; and NPK bulk-blending and
granulation plants.
In phosphate rock processing, particulate emissions are
issued from the calcination, drying, grinding, and transfer
processes. The emission factors for these processes are
7.5, 10, and 1 kg per metric ton of rock., respectively.
In granular triple superphosphate production, particulate
emissions may originate from a number of points in the
process. Most of the particulates are given off in the
drying and product-classification processes. The off-gas
from the reactor (in which phosphate rock is acidulated with
phosphoric acid) and the blunger (in which the reactor
effluent is mixed with recycled product fines to produce a
paste) may account for a considerable percentage of the
total particulates emitted.
Particulate emissions from diammonium phosphate manufacture
originate mainly from the granulator and the dryer, it has
been estimated that the total emissions amount to
approximately 20 kg per metric ton of product from both
sources.
Emissions from the manufacture of run-of-pile normal super-
phosphate originate from both the acidulation and "denning"
processes. Although the emission factors for particulates
are not known, they are estimated to be in the order of 5 kg
per metric ton.
The NPK or granulation plants manufacture a variety of
products. Many different emission factors probably will
apply for this class of fertilizer plant. In fixing the
emission factors, these plants are assumed to employ an
ammoniation-granulation process similar to that used in the
DAP process, or approximately 20 kg of particulates per
metric ton of product.
The emission factors for particulates are high in the triple
superphosphate, diammonium phosphate, and NPK plants. The
bulk of these emissions in all three processes originates
from the granulation process. There is a strong economic
incentive to reduce these emissions since they contain
valuable products and in many cases are associated with
2-103
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ammonia vapors (from the ammoniation process), whose
recovery is an economic necessity.
Control Technology and Costs. Most of the phosphate rock of
higher available phosphorus pentoxide content is ground and
beneficiated to enhance its reactivity and to eliminate some
of the impurities. The particulate emissions from the
grinding and screening operations may be effectively
controlled by employing baghouses in which the dust is
deposited on mechanically-cleaned fabric filters. The dust-
laden gas from the rock-drying (and perhaps defluorination)
operations may first pass through a cyclone and then through
a wet scrubber (such as a venturi). The efficiency of this
combination should be better than 99 percent.
Particulate and fluoride emissions from phosphate fertilizer
plants traditionally have been removed from waste gaseous
streams by wet scrubbing, while efforts have been directed
at removing fluorides, up to 99 percent of the particulates
are simultaneously removed. wet scrubbers of varying
efficiencies have been used for this double purpose. The
fluoride and particulate-laden scrubber water is usually
disposed of in a gypsum pond.
For control of particulate emissions from granular TSP
plants, various wet scrubbers will be provided for a number
of gaseous waste streams. The effluent from the reactor-
granulator will be scrubbed in two stages. The first stage
will be a cyclone and the second a cross-flow packed
scrubber. The gases from the drier and cooler will be
scrubbed in venturi-type packed scrubbers. Waste gases from
storage of the granular product are usually scrubbed in a
cyclone scrubber, although some plants use packed scrubbers.
The scrubbing liquid used in all scrubbers will be recycled
pond water except for the first-stage scrubbing of gases
from the reactor granulator, where weak phosphoric acid will
be used and recycled to the reactor.
In DAP plants, control of particulates will be achieved for
gaseous streams originating from the reactor granulator, the
drier, and the cooler, together with combined gaseous
streams ventilating such solids-processing equipment as
elevators, screens, and loading and unloading. Two-stage
scrubbing will be employed for each of the streams listed.
The first stage will consist of a cyclone scrubber; the
scrubbing medium will be diluted (30 percent) phosphoric
acid for purposes of recovering ammonia and the product.
Most of the particulate matter will be removed in the first
stage, and the balance will be removed in the second stage
consisting of a cross-flow packed scrubber in which recycled
pond water is used as the scrubbing medium.
2-104
-------
It is assumed that only run-of-pile normal superphosphate is
produced in NSP plants. A cyclone scrubber will be employed
in removing particulates in gaseous streams originating from
the reactor-pugmill, den, and curing operations.
An ammoniation-granulation process is assumed for NPK
plants. Cyclones will be installed ahead of primary
scrubbers. The primary scrubber (typically employing dilute
phosphoric acid as a scrubbing medium) i,s considered an
integral part of the process in which valuable reactants
(ammonia) and the product are recovered.
Cross-flow scrubbers have been used in estimating costs of
controlling emissions of both particulates and fluorides.
Most of the control technologies described above have been
applied for more than a decade. Wet scrubbers of varying
efficiencies have been integral parts of many phosphate
fertilizer processes. The collection of waste gaseous
streams and the removal of fluorine compounds from these
streams has long been practiced to protect the health and
safety of process operating personnel. Collection of
particulate materials from those waste gaseous streams is
dictated by economic necessity because valuable products are
involved.
Table 3-11-1 shows the estimated future sales and capacities
for phosphate fertilizers. The table also shows the number
of model plant sizes used to calculate costs for the four
fertilizer types. The emissions are reduced dramatically
below levels that would have been achieved for purely
economic recovery purposes. The control costs are shown for
investment and cash requirements, as well as for annualized
expenditures over the next decade.
2-105
-------
o
o\
Table 3-11-1,
Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (1.OOO MT/Yr) 37.23 46-17
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 4,66%
1985
55.83
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Type of Phosphate:
NSP
NPK
TSP
DAP
Model Plant Size
(MT/Yr)
62.7;99.O;132.O;165.0;
198.O;231.5
45
7O;12O;297.5;46O;67O;
93O
54; 155;248;378;513;
7OO;900
Pollutants Controlled
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
PartIculates
EMISSIONS (1.00O MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
Particulates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capi tal
O&M
1975
1,1O4.67
630.79
23.51
25.56
1O.22
15.34
198O
1.428.56
2.O3
12.23
51.86
19.12
32.74
1985
1,773.89
3.49
6.67
65.38
23.04
42.34
Control Technology
Wet Scrubber
Wet Scrubber
Wet Scrubber
Wet Scrubber
1971-85
1976-85
175.14
57O.50
212.O4
358.47
97.4O
512.OO
188.31
323.69
-------
NON-FERTILIZER PHOSPHORUS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. In 1973, there
were 21 plants engaged in the production of elemental
phosphorus, defluorinated phosphates (DFP), and calcium
phosphates (Dical), The combined capacity of these plants
is approximately 4,808 metric tons per day or 1.6 million
metric tons per year (P205 equivalent) in 1973. Ten plants
produce elemental phosphorus and account for over 60 percent
of the total capacity involved in the production of non-
fertilizer phosphates. A summary of model plant size
distributions and capacities for the three products, is
provided in Table 3-12-1.
Table 3-12-1.
Non-Fertilizer Phosphates Industry
Plant Capacity Distribution
Phosphate
reduction
Plant
Capacity
(P205, No.
MT/day) Plants
Defluorinated
phosphate
54
217
649
31
93
125
386
3
4
3
10
1
1
1
1
Total
Capacity
(P205,
MT/day)
162
867
1,948
2,977
31
93
125
386
Percent
Group Industry
5
29
66
100
5
15
20
60
3
18
41
62
nil
2
3
8
635
100
Calcium
phosphate
54
200
580
4
2
1
216
400
580
18
33
48
5
8
12
1,196
100
25
Totals
21
4,808
100
2-107
-------
The production of industrial phosphorus and phosphate
containing animal feeds begins with thermal and/or chemical
processing of phosphate rock. Phosphates that are suitable
as additives to feeds may result from the direct
defluorination of phosphate rock, clefluorination of
phosphoric acid from wet process acid, or defluorination of
furnace acid, e.g., acid made from elemental phosphorus
produced by thermal reduction of phosphate rock. The
production of feed-grade phosphates by conversion of
elemental phosphorus is expected to decline because of the
energy requirements of the thermal reduction of phosphate
rock. Decreased production by this process will be
compensated for by increased production from wet process
acids, so the overall production of feed-grade phosphates
will increase at an annual rate of approximately 4 percent.
Current production is estimated to be about 90 percent of
capacity.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions from
the manufacture of defluorinated phosphates are primarily
fluorides and particulates. Currently, only Florida has
established controls for fluoride emissions; it is
anticipated that Federal and state regulations for control
of fluoride emissions will be promulgated shortly, and so
control costs for this pollutant are included in the
analysis for this industry.
Gaseous fluorides are released during the thermal and/or
chemical reduction of phosphate rock with the major point of
emissions in feed preparation. Emission factors may be as
high as 33 kilograms fluorine per metric ton of phosphorus
processed.
A summary of estimated fluoride emissions from the
production of defluorinated phosphates is presented below;
control efficiencies of 95 percent are assumed.
2-108
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Present Controls Further Controls
(metric tons/yr) (metric tons/yr)
1975
Phosphate reduction 430 25
Defluorinated
phosphate 2,560 158
Calcium phosphate 40 2
1985
Phosphate reduction 260 15
Defluorinated
phosphate 3,910 242
Calcium phosphate 50 3
Control Technology and Costs. Control of fluorides can be
accomplished by the use of wet scrubbers. These devices,
which could include liquid ejector venturi scrubbers, liquid
impingement control systems, and spray towers, also serve to
control particulate emissions to levels of 95 percent or
more.
For DFP and Dical plants, control costs are comparable for
similar sized plants but almost four times as high as for
phosphate reduction plants of similar size. The lower
control costs associated with animal feed production from
furnace acid is due to the relatively lower percentage of
fluorides contained in the phosphoric acid obtained from
thermal reduction of rock. Annualized control costs and
industry operating statistics are detailed in Table 3-12-2.
2-109
-------
I-1
a
Table 3-12-2.
Non-Fertilizer Phosphorus Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (MT/Oay) 5.980.O 6,529.0
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 3.50%
1985
8,023.0
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Deflourinated Phosphate
Phosphate Reduction
Calcium Phosphate
EMISSIONS (MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
PartIculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
See Table 3-12-1.
1975
34.54
28.07
1.68
t . 1O
O.80
O.30
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Part iculates
Particulates
Particulates
1980
1985
47.84
32.45
O.58
2.O7
1.52
O.55
58.69
39 .91
0.28
2.39
1.73
0-66
Wet Scrubber
Wet Scrubber
Wet Scrubber
1971-85
1O. SO
22.29
16.22
G.O7
1976-85
5.66
19.88
14.47
5.42
-------
SULFUR1C ACID INDUSTRY
production Characteristics and Capacities. About half of the
sulfuric acid produced in the United States is used in the
manufacture of phosphate fertilizers; the rest is used in
myriad industrial applications ranging from steel pickling
to detergent manufacturing.
Sulfuric acid is manufactured by chemical companies and by
companies primarily engaged in smelting nonferrous metals;
both sources compete for the same buyers. Nevertheless, the
manufacturing of sulfuric acid by the smelter industry is
primarily a byproduct resulting from the control efforts to
reduce sulfur dioxide emissions to the atmosphere, and
secondarily, as an attempt to generate additional revenue.
For the purposes of this report, smelter acid is considered
to be part of the smelter industry rather than the sulfuric
acid industry.
The major products of the sulfuric acid industry are
concentrated sulfuric acid (93 to 99 percent) and oleum. A
few sulfuric acid plants associated with the fertilizer
industry produce less-concentrated grades of acid.
Essentially, all sulfuric acid in the United States is
currently produced by the contact process, less than 0.4
percent is being produced by the older chamber process.
In sulfur-burning plants, sulfuric acid is produced by
burning elemental sulfur with dry air in a furnace to
produce sulfur dioxide. The latter is catalytically
converted to sulfur trioxide. The hot converter effluent is
cooled and introduced to an absorption tower where the
sulfur trioxide is absorbed in a sulfuric acid solution to
form more sulfuric acid by its reaction with water.
Some plants (including spent-acid plants and smelter-jas
plants) operate on the same principle as sulfur-burring
plants, except that the sulfur dioxide is obtained from the
combustion of spent acid and hydrogen sulfide or from
smelter off-gas. In these plants, the sulfur-bearing gas is
dried with sulfuric acid and cleaned (subjected to
particulate and mist removal process) before introduction to
the acid plant.
Of the known 183 sulfuric acid plants operating in 1973, 167
were contact process plants and 16 were chamber process
plants. Of the 25.5 million metric tons of new sulfuric
acid produced, 25.3 million metric tons were made in contact
process plants. This volume production included sulfuric
acid produced by the sulfuric acid industry (as defined in
this report) and by the smelter industry. In 1974, 58
2-111
-------
companies operated sulfur-burning or wet-process contact
acid plants in 134 locations, and 16 companies operated
smelter acid plants in 23 locations. In addition, five
companies operated small chamber-acid plants in five
locations.
Emissions Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from sulfuric
acid plants consist of sulfur dioxide gases and sulfuric
acid mist. These pollutants evolve from incomplete
conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfur trioxide in the
converter, and from the formation of a stable mist
consisting of minute particles of sulfuric acid that resist
absorption in the acid absorber.
Controlled Technolocy and Costs. The controlled emission
factors for existing facilities for FY 1976 are as specified
by the SIP'S; new source values were assumed to apply to
both existing and new facilities in FY 1980.
In sulfuric acid plants using the two-stage or dual
absorption control process, the gas from the first acid
absorber is initially heated (sometimes removing the mist)
and then sent through a single-stage converter where the
sulfur dioxide is converted to sulfur trioxide. The gas
from the converter is then sent to an absorber and a
demister before release to the atmosphere*
Dual adsorption has reliably met EPA standards of
performance for new and modified sources in applications of
two types of sulfuric acid plants (sulfur-burning and wet
gas) of all sizes. In addition to controlling sulfur
dioxide emissions, the dual absorption method offers the
added advantage of not requiring new operational skills on
the part of acid plant operators. This control technology
has been used in computing the sulfur dioxide control costs
for all new and existing sulfuric acid plants.
Table 3-13-1 shows that capacity is increasing, at a
substantial rate for this industry, with associated costs
reflecting this trend. This may cause the costs to be
overstated due to the rapid increase in sulfuric acid
recovered in the control of sulfur oxides from smelters and
utility plants. The control costs are also shown for total
annualized expenditures, investment and cash requirements.
2-112
-------
I
I—"
I-4
OJ
Table 3-13-1.
Sulfur1c Acid Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (1,OOO MT/Day) 94.2 127.1
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-8S = 5.4O%
1985
152.8
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Sulfur Burning
Wet Gas
EMISSIONS (1.0OO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Sulfur Oxides
Other Gases & Mists
Legislated Controls:
Sulfur Oxides
Other Gases & Mists
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
297:665;1.814
1975
Pollutants Controlled
Sulfur Oxide & Add
Mist
Sulfur Oxide & Add
Mist
Control Technology
Dual Absorption
Dual Absorption
1980
1985
1971-85
1976-85
711 ,
22.
337,
1 1 ,
148
1O9.
72.
36.
.36
.92
58
,35
,94
93
,98
,95
982
31
99
4
12
175
1O7
67
.04
.65
.03
.27
. 17
.51
.62
.88
1 , 18O.
38.
119.
5.
5.
181 .
111.
7O.
74
O5
44
14
76 721. 9O
SO 1.919.29
18 1.2O0.52
32 718.77
247.89
1 .673.29
1 . 036 . 32
636.97
-------
PETROCHEMICALS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. In estimating air
emission control costs associated with the petrochemical
industry, the production of the following major large volume
petrochemicals was considered:
• Formaldehyde
• Acrylonitrile
• Ethylene dichloride
• Ethylene oxide
» phthalic anhydride.
A major air pollution problem in the petrochemical industry
is the emission of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide via off-
gases produced in oxidation processes. The petrochemicals
involved in this problem include not only oxygen-containing
compounds, such as oxides, aldehydes, and anhydrides, but
also compounds in which oxygen serves an intermediate role
in the synthesis, such as acrylonitrile and ethylene
dichloride. In a typical process of this type, the raw
material, air (sometimes oxygen}, and sometimes a third
reactant are fed into a vapor-phase catalytic oxidation
reactor. The reactor effluent gases go to an absorber in
which the desired product is scrubbed out. The off-gas from
this absorber, which is vented to the atmosphere, contains
mostly nitrogen and carbon dioxide, but smaller amounts of
carbon monoxide and unconverted hydrocarbons are also
present.
Formaldehyde. Formaldehyde is synthesized by oxidation of
methanol with air and sold as an aqueous solution (37
percent by weight). Two different processes are used, one
based on a metal oxide catalyst and one based on a silver
catalyst; about 77 percent of the domestic formaldehyde
production uses the silver process and the other 23 percent
uses the metal oxide process.
Production in 1974, as estimated from data for the first 8
months of the year, was about 2.8 billion kilograms of 37
percent formaldehyde. Growth is due primarily to increased
demand for urea-formaldehyde and phenolformaldehyde resins,
which consume about half of all the formaldehyde produced.
Acrylonitrile. Ammoxidation of propylene, the most widely
practiced method for producing acrylonitrile, consists of
the catalytic oxidation of ammonia with air. Typically, the
gaseous products from the oxidation chamber are passed to an
absorber where the acrylonitrile is collected. The off-gas
from the absorber is normally vented to the atmosphere, a
process which is largely uncontrolled at present.
2-114
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Production in 1974, as estimated from data for the first
eight months of the year, was about 681 million Kilograms.
Growth is due primarily to increased demand for acrylic
fibers, which consume about half of all the acrylonitrile
produced, and for plastics, which consume another 15 percent
of total production.
Ethylene Bichloride (EDO. Ethylene dichloride can be
produced by two alternative processes, direct chlorination
or oxychlorination. While half of the U.S. production of
EDC is by direct chlorination, the process results in only
10 percent of the volume of atmospheric emissions that
result from the oxychlorination process and, hence, only
oxychlorination is considered here.
Production in 1974, as estimated from data for the first
eight months of the year, was about 3.5 billion kilograms.
The use of the oxychlorination process should continue to
account for about 48 percent of the total production, or
about 2.8 billion kilograms in 1985.
Ethylene Oxide. In recent years, the dominant process for
manufacturing ethylene oxide has become the direct oxidation
of ethylene. There are four processes used for ethylene
oxide manufacture by direct oxidation and all use a silver
catalyst. Only two of the plants oxidize with dioxide, the
others use air. The plants which oxidize with dioxide are
similar except that usually only a primary reactor and
absorber are used. Compared to the plants which use air,
the plants which use dioxide produce much less absorber gas
but much more carbon dioxide rich purge gas.
Phthalic Anhydride. Phthalic anhydride is produced by the
oxidation of either o-xylene or naphthalene; about 55
percent of the phthalic anhydride is produced from o-xylene.
This process is expected to gain an increasing share of
industrial production because oxylene is less expensive than
naphthalene.
A number of processes are available for producing phthaiir
anhydride. Most of the naphthalene-based processes ;;• -.
fluidized-bed reactors, whereas all xylene-based procc-t-.t-cs
use tubular fixed-bed reactors. Except for the reactorb and
the catalyst handling facilities required for the fluidized-
bed units, the processes based on the two raw materials a^e
quite similar. In both cases, the reactor effluent gas-s
are used to generate steam in a waste heat boiler and thon
go to a seperation system in which the phthalic anhydride is
condensed out as solid crystals. The condenser effluent
gases are ultimately vented to the atmosphere, although in
most plants they are first water-scrubbed or incinerated.
2-115
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Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions
arising from petrochemical production result from the
venting of off-gases from the absorber. The chief air
pollutants are hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide.
Corresponding emission factors for these pollutants as a
function of production volume are given in Table 3-14-1.
2-116
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to
I
Table 3-14-1.
Petrochemicals Industry
Calculated Emission Factors
(No Controls)
Petrochemical
Formaldehyde (37%)
Acryloni tr1le
Ethlene dlchlorlde
Ethylene oxide
Pthallc anhydride
Waste Gas Streams
Absorber vent
Absorber vent
Absorber vent
Absorber vent + C02^ purge
Absorber vent
Kilograms Emitted Per 1O* Kilograms of Product
CO Hydrocarbons SOx {as SO2)
3.33
74,19
3.31
O.
73.76
5.28
83.52
12 .94
50. 15
19.50
2.29
-------
Control Technology and Costs. The control technology judged
to be most feasible for control of hydrocarbon and carbon
monoxide emissions from the manufacture of petrochemicals is
thermal incineration (often referred to as afterburners).
Thermal incinerators were considered in place of catalytic
incinerators because of the latter's higher initial
investment costs and requirement for catalyst replacement
costs. The investment for thermal incinerators was based on
a compilation of costs by the Midwest Research institute
(MRI), which considered the purchased cost of a thermal
incinerator plus the heat exchanger in which the effluent
gases heat up the influent gases. These costs were inflated
to mid-1973 using the Chemical Engineering Plant Cost index
and were found to compare closely with investment data
provided in a recent report by Houdry on acrylonitrile.
Annual costs were calculated from utility (fuel and power)
requirements, annual maintenance, and operating labor.
The distribution of plant size categories, number of plants,
capacity and percent of industry capacity represented by
model size, and the unit investment and annual operating and
maintenance costs are given in Table 3-14-3 for each
petrochemical production process covered. Annualized
industry costs for air pollution abatement in the period
1976-85 are also provided in Table 3-14-2.
2-118
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Table 3-14-2.
Petrochemicals Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (Million Kg/Yr) 4,111,700 5.361.1OO
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 5.83%
1985
6.S98.9OO
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Formaldehyde-Si Ix/er
Process
Formaldehyde-Metal
Oxide Process
Phthalic Anhydride
Aery1 on1tr1le
Ethylene Oxide - O2_
Ethylene Oxide - Air
Ethylene O1chloride
EMISSIONS (1,000 MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Legislated Controls:
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(1/2 MT/Yr)
34.2;89.2;149.6;
492.2
43.5;9O,O;123.8
38.6;87.9;128.8
178:270
21O.3
71.2;3O3.8;733.3
177,5:425;695
1975
Pollutants Controlled
Hydrocarbon; Carbon
Monoxide
Hydrocarbon; Carbon
Monox1de
Hydrocarbon: Carbon
Monox1de
Hydrocarbon; Carbon
Monox ide
Hydrocarbon
Hydrocarbon
Hydrocarbon; Carbon
Monox1de
Control Technology
Afterburners
Afterburners
Afterburners
Afterburners
Afterburners
Afterburners
Afterburners
198O
1985
1971-85
1976-85
410.
171
182.
79
3
25.
2,
22
.83
,28
.25
. 11
.85
,58
.67
.90
621 .
273.
31
14.
2.
49.
5.
44.
, 17
,58
.24
,83
,OO
.85
.29
56
713.
316,
37.
17,
1 .
57.
5,
51 .
,65
, 9O
.27
, 14
, O4 48.51
2O 528.17
89 55.33
31 472.84
25. 9O
471 .73
48.93
422.81
-------
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The petroleum
industry can be divided into the following four operating
areas:
Exploration and production, which includes the search for
new oil supplies, the drilling of oil fields, removal of oil
from the ground, and pretreatment at the well site.
Refining, which includes the operations necessary to
convert the crude oil into salable products such as
gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, distillate and residual fuel
oils, lubricants, asphalt, specialty products, and chemical
raw materials such as ethylene and benzene.
Transportation, which involves the movement of crude oil
to the refinery and refined products to market areas.
Marketing, which involves the distrubution and sale of the
finished products.
Integration and diversification prevail within the industry*
Most of the firms involved in refining are also involved in
production and/or marketing. All the large and medium sized
firms are involved in the manufacture of petrochemicals.
Some firms are involved in the production aspects of energy
sources other than crude oil, i.e., coal or Canadian tar
sands.
As of January 1, 1974, the 247 refineries in the United
States had a total crude oil capacity of 14.2 million
barrels per day. A distribution of these refineries by size
and percent of total capacity is as follows:
2-120
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Capacity
Range
(1,000 bbl No.
Cal day) Refineries
Up to 5
5 to 10
10 to 15
15 to 25
25 to 50
50 to 75
75 to 100
100 to 200
Over 200
46
30
21
21
45
23
20
26
15
Totals
247
Total
Capacity
(1,000 bbl
Cal day)
144
236
274
437
1,645
1,444
1,831
3,657
4,550
14,216
Total
Industry
Capacity(%)
1.
1.
1.
3.
.01
.66
.92
.07
11.57
10.15
12.88
25.72
32.02
100.00
Average
Capacity
(1,000 bbl
Cal day)
3
8
13
21
37
63
92
141
303
During the period from 1970 to 1974, total crude processing
capacity increased by 2.1 million barrels per day, despite a
drop in the number of refineries from 262 to 247, indicating
a gradual trend toward larger plants. Although there are
about 130 firms which operate refineries, over 80 percent of
the total capacity is controlled by 17 major firms; each
firm controls crude processing capacity in excess of 200,000
barrels per day. A breakdown of capacity and number of
plants operated by these firms is as follows:
2-121
-------
Company
Exxon
Shell
Texaco
Amoco
Standard (CA)
Mobil
Gulf
ARCO
Union Oil
Sun Oil
Phillips
Sohio/BP
Ashland
Continental
Marathon
Cities
Amer. Petrofina
No.
Refineries
5
8
12
10
12
3
8
6
4
5
6
4
7
7
3
1
4
Subtotal 110
Remaining Firms 137
247
Crude Capacity
(1000 bbl/cal day)
1,252
1,109
1,083
1,065
984
932
861
790
487
484
404
384
358
349
314
268
200
11,324
2,892
14,216
Crude
Capacity (%)
8.8
6.9
6.6
6.1
5.6
3.4
3.4
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.4
79.7
20.3
100.0
The intensity of the energy shortage resulted in the largest
absolute capacity increase since 1967, and the largest
percentage increase in at least a decade. The increase was
6.2 percent, compared with 2.3 - 4.3 percent for the
preceding 3 years.
Very few new refineries have been built in the last 5 years,-
the growth has occurred primarily through the expansion of
existing facilities. This is in part due to difficulty in
securing approval for new sites. A survey of refinery
construction plans in August of 1973 showed "definite
projects" for 1974-77 totaling 1.13 million barrels per day
(all expansions) and projects "under study" totaling about
0.9 million barrels per day (mostly new refineries).
Turning now to the aspects of the petroleum industry which
are of particular importance in air pollution abatement, the
capacity of fluid bed catalytic cracking is expected to grow
at the same rate as total refinery capacity, i.e., 4.2
percent per year.
2-122
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it is estimated that the 247 domestic refineries produce
about 70 million cubic meters per day of refinery gases.
The present Claus plant capacity for recovering sulfur from
these gases is about 8,300 metric tons per day.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The three major sources of
air pollution in the petroleum industry covered in this
report are regeneration of catalysts used in catalytic
cracking, burning of fuel gases from various refinery
process operations in order to recover the fuel values, and
handling and storage of volatile petroleum products and
crude oils. A consolidated view of the type and extent of
the emissions from refining and related operations, is
presented below.
Catalytic Cracking. Catalyst regeneration during the
operation of catalytic cracking units has been identified as
a major source of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons
and, in the case of the fluid bed units which dominate this
process, particulate emissions. The coXe deposited on the
catalyst during the cracking operation must be continually
removed to permit the catalyst to maintain high activity.
In a fluid bed catalytic cracker, the catalyst bed is
continuously circulated between the reactor, where the coke
is deposited on the catalyst, and the regenerator, where it
is burned off with air. The amount of coke deposited on the
catalyst per unit of feedstock is a function of the
feedstock and operating conditions.
Fuel Gas Burning. Currently, amine scrubbing units are
widely used to remove hydrogen sulfide from the fuel gas
generated within refineries. The hydrogen sulfide is
thermally stripped from the scrubbing liquor and then is
either sent to a sulfur recovery plant (usually a. Claus
plant) or is burned to sulfur dioxide, which is emitted to
the atmosphere through a flare. In 1973, about 70 percent
of the sulfur which went into fuel gas was recovered as
elemental sulfur, the other 30 percent was emitted as sulfur
dioxide.
Petroleum Storage. The most significant contribution to
total hydrocarbon losses in the petroleum industry is
associated with the necessary use of vast storage
facilities. The National Petroleum Council has shown that
the entire industry maintains a total storage capacity of at
least two barrels for each barrel of actual inventory. This
is the minimum amount necessary to insure continuous
refinery operations and to provide for seasonal variations
in product demands. The magnitude of hydrocarbon emissions
from storage tanks depends on many factors including the
physical properties of the material being stored, climatic
2-123
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.and meteorological conditions, and the size, color, and
condition of the tank.
control Technology and Costs. Control technology and costs
for the three major emission sources in the petroleum
industry are outlined in the following paragraphs.
Catalytic Cracking. , The removal of participate matter
(catalyst fines) from the regenerator gas can be
accomplished with high-efficiency electrostatic
precipitators. Although some reduction in carbon monoxide
and unburned hydrocarbons can be achieved by increasing the
regeneration temperature, essentially complete removal of
these species will require carbon monoxide boilers. The
additional combustion which occurs in the carbon monoxide
boiler generates substantial quantities of heat, which the
boiler recovers as steam; the value of this steam helps
offset the cost of the equipment. Equipment for controlling
emission of particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and
hydrocarbons is commercially available and is already in use
in some catalytic cracking units.
In 1971, about 29 percent of the fluid catalytic cracking
capacity was equipped with electrostatic precipitators and
about 69 percent was equipped with carbon monoxide boilers.
These boilers are often economically justified by the steam
which they generate, especially for large catalytic cracking
units. increasing energy costs are making carbon monoxide
boilers more attractive for this reason, in some existing
refineries, the additional steam generated by the addition
of a carbon monoxide boiler cannot be used, but new
refineries can be designed to take advantage of this means
of reducing their total energy requirement.
The catalyst fines collected by the electrostatic
precipitator must be disposed of as solid waste. Costs for
this phase of disposal were calculated using the average
particulate emission factor for fluid cat crackers (110
kg/1000 bbl fresh feed), a precipitator efficiency of 93
percent, and an operating factor of 0.913 {8,000 hr/yr).
Annualized control costs and control data are detailed in
Table 3-15-1.
Fuel Gas Burning. The control technology involves
installing additional amine scrubbing facilities where
required, installing Claus plants on the 30 percent of
capacity now without them, and installing tail-gas treatment
facilities on all the Claus plants. The tail-gas treatment
facilities increase the overall sulfur recovery from about
95 to 99.8 percent.
2-124
-------
The amine solution used in the scrubbing operation cannot be
regenerated and reused indefinitely. Complex sulfur salts
are formed which must be purged from the system, and fresh
solution must be' added to replace the amine thus lost. TWO
methods 'are used commercially: one involves continuously
withdrawing a purge stream, and the other involves using the
solution for a period of time and then completely replacing
it. For analyzing salt disposal costs, an equivalent daily
purge rate relationship of 1.74 pounds per day amine purge
per long ton per day sulfur recovery was used.
The credit for the sulfur recovered in these processes is an
important economic consideration and is also difficult to
define. In the coming years, the reduction of allowable
sulfur emissions from refineries, power plants, etc., plus
the increasing sulfur content of the crude oil processed
will combine to cause a very large increase in the
production of sulfur. This will probably depress the price
of sulfur, but the extent of depression is open to
considerable speculation. The price level used in this
study was: $15 per metric ton.
Annualized control costs and control data are detailed in
Table 3-15-1.
Hydrocarbon Storage. The EPA new source pollution
regulations require that petroleum products having vapor
pressures of 78 to 570 milliliters of mercury be stored in
floating roof tanks or their equivalent. There is also a
requirement for products with vapor pressure greater than
570 milliliters of mercury, but this will cause no
additional expense since the control methods are presently
used for these products. Thus, this report is concerned
only with the storage of crude oil, jet fuel, and gasoline.
The typical industry practice (1968) involved a distribution
of 75 percent floating-roof and 25 percent fixed-roof tanks-
this distribution is felt to be applicable for crude oil and
jet fuel. For gasoline, the economics of evaporation
control have led to a distribution more liKe 90 percent
floating-roof and 10 percent fixed-roof. Thus, the cost of
meeting the new regulations is the difference between the
cost of using 100 percent floating-roof tanks for these
products and the cost of using the above distributions.
The tank costs were based on quotations obtained in October
of 1974 from representative vendors. These quotations were
for a typical Midwestern location. The following items were
added to the basic tank cost:
2-125
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Item Tank Cost (%'
Excavation and dike 25
Foundation 6
Electrical grounding 3
Piping, etc. 10
Painting 3
Total 47
These percentages vere taken from a report by the MSA
Research Corporation; no land cost was included. Quotations
were obtained for both fixed-roof and floating-roof tanks.
The difference between these two is then the differential
cost applicable to new tanks. Since the desired time basis
for this study is mid-1973, these costs were adjusted back
to that time using the Nelson refinery cost index.
Quotations were also obtained for converting existing fixed-
roof tanks to floating-roof by retrofitting an internal
floating cover. This is the conversion method which will
evidently be used, since it costs only about half as much as
removing the fixed roof and replacing it with a floating
roof.
2-126
-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Environmental Protection Agency by SobotKa &
Co., Inc. (S&C)1. This analysis was conducted in somewhat
greater depth than, and subsequent to the general data
gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The S&C estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental Investment (1975-1983) 1,280
(1974-1977) 740
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. . SEAS forecasts an investment costs of $783
million for 1975-1983. This assumes that 46 percent of the
required pollution control equipment was installed by 1975.
The total cost of meeting the standard over 1972-1979 is
$1,223 million. Thus, the assumed time pattern of capital
expenditures of the . two studies greatly affects the cost
comparisons for a particular span of years.
The S&C study developed its cost data for two main
categories—large and small plants. The data for both
groups was based upon a representative sample, and then
extrapolated for the whole group. SEAS used the model plant
concept, with several different model plants for three main
categories: catalytic cracking, fuel gas burning, and
petroleum storage. These assumptions are listed in Table 3-
15-1 and process characteristics.
"Economic Impact of EPA's Regulations on the Petroleum
Refining industry", Sobotka & Co., Inc., April, 1976.
2-127
-------
Table 3-15-1.
Petroleum Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
1985
N>
00
Capaci ty
Storage - Million Bbl/Day 783,02O 931.73O 1.140.4OO
Catalytic Cracking 101
Bbl/Day) 2,778,313 3,325.4OO 3.97S.9OO
Refining - MT/Yr Revised 4,282 5,126 6,128
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 Storage 4.18%
Catalytic Cracking 3.99%
Refining 3.99%
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Gasoline Storage
Crude Oil Storage
Jet Fuel Storage
Catalytic Cracking
Refining (1.OOO Bbl/Day)
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Model Plant Sizes
(Mil 1 ion Bbl/Day)
56
80
56
1.6, 9.6, 30
5, 10, 31, 67,
93. 211
1975
98.32
2,542.34
933.45
2.7O2.98
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons
Part iculates.
Carbon Monoxide
Hydrocarbons
Sulfur Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Floating
Floating
Floating
ESP
Roof
Roof
Roof
Tail Gas Treatment
1980
124.78
3,226.72
1,178. 14
3,430.61
1985
147.38
3,811 . 17
1.424.74
4.O51.98
1971-85
1976-85
-------
Table 3-15-1. (Continued)
Petroleum Industry Data Summary
Legislated Controls:
Partlculates 42.64 18.12 2.15
Sulfur Oxides 1,328.85 472.02 560.93
Hydrocarbons 576,OG 353.69 421.85
Carbon Monoxide 1,217.28 142.94 52.27
Table 3-15-1. (Continued)
Petroleum Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) 1975 198O 1985 1971-85 1976-85
Catalytic Cracking:
Investment 55.66 20.38 13.39 581.9O 275.42
Total Annual 49.42 83.37 94.32 934.7O 815.66
Capital 4O.30 68.24 76.54 763.41 664.77
O&M 9.12 15.13 17.77 171.29 150,89
Fuel Gas Burning:
Investment 49,36 18,41 8,86 515,03 223.50
Total Annual 90.35 143.46 158.10 1,619.70 1,407.23
Capital 37.54 61.01 67.71 686.16 593.32
O&M 52.81 82.45 9O.38 933.53 813.91
Storage:
Investment 46.60 19.00 11.88 361.O9 186.86
Total Annual 18.48 31.60 38.31 357.28 314.93
Capital 18.48 31.60 38.31 357.28 314.93
O&M 0000 O
-------
FERROALLOY INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. In 1972, there
were 26 companies operating an estimated 44 ferroalloy
plants. The industry is composed of steel companies,
chemical and mineral companies having access to particular
alloying elements, and specialist producers of ferroalloys.
Five companies use the metallothermic process to make
specialty ferroalloys containing molybdenum, tungsten,
vanadium, columbium or titanium. Six companies are involved
in making ferrophosphorus. The remaining companies use the
submerged-arc electric furnace to produce about one-half of
the ferromanganese and virtually all of the silicon- and
chromium-containing ferroalloys used in steelmaking.
Alloying elements required for making different steels are
often added in the form of ferroalloys which contain iron
and at least one other element. The ferroalloys are named
according to the major alloying element: ferromanganese
contains manganese as the additive,- ferrochromesilicon
contains both chromium and silicon. Some additives in which
the iron content is very small (such as silicomanganese and
silicon-chrome-manganese} are also considered as
ferroalloys.
Ferroalloys are made by three methods with submerged-arc
electric furnaces producing most of the output. Three types
of furnaces are adapted to the three production methods:
open furnaces, semicovered furnaces, and sealed furnaces.
Metalothermic reduction furnace production has been included
with electric furnace production in the absence of
sufficient information on number, location, emissions, and
air-pollution-control methods. Two domestic producers use
blast furnaces for making ferromanganese and occasionally
ferrosilicon.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Particulate emissions are
generated during the handling of the ores, fluxes, and
reductants used in the production of ferroalloys.
Particulate and gaseous emissions are continuously evolved
during smelting operations. Fuming occurs when the
ferroalloy is poured, the amount varying with the particular
ferroalloy. Submerged-arc electric furnaces of the open or
open-hood type are required because of the formation of
crusts with certain ferroalloys- these crusts must be broken
mechanically. With semicovered or low-hood type submerged-
arc furnaces, the charge is fed to the furnace through
openings around the electrodes, in open-hood furnaces, the
collection hood is raised sufficiently to provide room for
charging between the hood and the charging floor; in
semicovered furnaces, the hood is lower and water-cooled.
2-130
-------
Open and semicovered furnaces produce greater emissions than
sealed furnaces, which are used to prevent the escape of
emissions and to minimize the influx of air.
Metallic silicon and aluminum are very strong deoxidizers
which are used under high-temperature conditions to reduce
the mineral oxides of molybdenum, titanium, zirconium, and
similar metals in metalothermic reduction furnaces.
In blast furnace smelting operations, particulates and
gaseous emissions are carried out of the furnace in the same
off-gas stream.
Control Technology and Costs. Baghouses, electrostatic
precipitators (ESP), and high-energy scrubbers are all used
to control emissions from submerged-arc electric furnaces.
Fumes evolving from the casting of ferromanganese in blast
furnace operations must also be controlled by baghouses.
A total of 155 ferroalloy furnaces were used in developing
the model furnaces used to produce cost estimates/ however,
only 56 furnaces could be identified as to specific
ferroalloy produced and the furnace electric power rating.
The distribution for these 56 furnaces was assumed to
represent the size distribution for all the existing
furnaces. Emissions from ferroalloy furnaces are related to
the furnace electric power input.
A relationship between furnace power input and production
was used to estimate furnace capacity. Capacities of open-
hood and low-hood electric furnaces were related to the
capacities of baghouse, scrubber, and electrostatic
precipitator control devices required to satisfy the
requirements.
To estimate these air pollution control expenditures, the
existing ferroalloy industry was divided into three
segments. These segments are shown in Table 3-16-1 under
the Process Characteristics heading. Annualized production
and cost control data is presented in Table 3-16-1.
2-131
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to
I-1
w
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 3-16-1.
Ferroalloy Industry Data Summary
1975
1980
Capacity (1.OOO MT/Yr-KVA) 3,,168,0 3,992.0
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 » 4.07%
1985
4,368.0
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Open and Low Hoods
Open and Low Hoods
Low Hoods
Model plant Sizes
(1,000 MT/Yr)
14.6-37:41
33
32
EMISSIONS (1.000 MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
PartIculates
Legislated Controls:
PartIculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
162.01
74.28
71 .OS
44.96
36.24
8.73
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
PartIculates
Partlculates
Partlculates
198O
1985
226.45
8.24
1 .23
68.82
54.42
14.40
255.97
8.97
O. 13
68.27
55. 3O
12.97
Baghouse
Scrubber
ESP
1971-8S
339,73
752.71
598.49
154.22
1976-85
117. 14
654.27
519.02
135.25
-------
IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRIES
Production characteristics and Capacities. The iron and
steel industry production operation includes the following
major sequential processes: recycling (sintering), coke
production, and steelmaking. There are three types of
steelmaking: open-hearth (OH), basic-oxygen furnace
-------
to coke having the desired properties. During the coking
cycle, volatile constituents and noncondensible gases are
distilled and transferred via collecting mains to the
byproducts plant for the recovery of.the gas and various
chemicals. When the coking cycle is completed, the doors on.
the ends of the oven are removed and -. a ram pushes the
incandescent coke from the oven into a quench car. The hot
coke is transported to a quench tower where it is cooled
under a direct water spray. The coke is then crushed and
screened for use in the blast furnace or for other purposes.
The fines from the crushing operation are used as a fuel in
sintering operations, or are sold commercially.
Open-Hearth SteelmaKing. This method is the oldest of the
three steelmaking processes presently being used to produce
raw steel. Open-hearth steel production has declined from a
peak of 89 million metric tons in 1964 to about 36 million
metric tons in 1973. In 1973t there were an estimated 18
operating open-hearth shops in the integrated iron and steel
industry. it is doubtful that any new plants will be
constructed. Furnace capacities range from 50 to 300 net
metric tons of steel. For this report, the open-hearth
plants have been grouped into five model sizes as follows:
Average Size Capacity
(1,000 metric No. (million metric Total
tons/year) Plants tons/year) Capacity (%)
283.4 2 0.57 2.0
982.6 3 2.95 10.4
1360.5 6 8.16 28.9
1814.0 4 7.26 25.7
3099.0 3 9.30 32.9
The open-hearth furnace is a shallow-hearth furnace that can
be alternately fired from either end. The process consists
of charging scrap, fluxes, and molten pig iron into the
furnace where the required melting and refining operations
are performed to produce the desired analysis of steel.
Firing of an open hearth can be done with a variety of
fuels, depending on availability, cost, and sulfur content
in the fuel.
Basic-Oxygen Furnace Steelmaking. BOF was . first used to
produce steel in the United States in 1955. By 1965,
economic replacement of the open-hearth furnace by the BOF
had been well established. BOF steelmaking expanded rapidly
2-134
-------
to about 76 million metric tons in 1973. Recently, a newer
process called Q-BOF has been used for commercial production
of steel. This new process has been included with the EOF
process for the purposes of this report. In 1973, there
were 19 companies operating 38 BOF plants, ranging in size
from 450,000 metric tons to 4.3 million metric tons of
annual capacity. For the purposes of this report, these
plants have been grouped into four model sizes as follows:
Average Size
(net metric
tons/year)
68-127
136-172
181-240
263-295
Capacity
No. (million metric Total
Plants tons/year) Capacity
10 11.2 14.7
5 8.1 10.7
20 46.0 60.7
3 10.5 13.9
In BOF steelmaking, the pear-shaped, open-top vessel is
positioned at a 45-degree angle and charged with the
required amount of steel scrap, molten pig iron, and other
materials. The vessel is vertically positioned and high-
purity oxygen is blown into the molten bath through a water-
cooled oxygen lance positioned above the bath. Products of
the oxygen reaction with the carbon, the silicon, and the
manganese in the charge pass off as carbon monoxide and
carbon dioxide gases, and manganese and silicon oxides in
the slag. When the required content of carbon, silicon, and
manganese is. obtained in the melt, oxygen blowing is
stopped, and ferroalloys are added as needed to attain the
desired final chemical composition of the steel. The molten
steel is then poured into a ladle for transfer to subsequent
operations.
Electric-Arc Furnace Steelmaking. This process has long
been the established unit for the production of alloy and
stainless steels. More recently, it has been widely used in
mini-steel plants to make plain carbon steels for local
markets. In 1972, electric-arc furnace production amounted
to 1.5 million metric tons of stainless steel. In 1973
there were almost 100 companies operating electric-arc
furnace plants ranging in size from 9 thousand metric tons
to 1.2 million metric tons annual capacity. The total
electric-arc furnace production in 1973 was about 25 million
metric tons. For the purposes of this report, electric-arc
furnaces have been grouped into six model sizes as follows:
2-135
-------
Average Size capacity
{1,000 metric No. (million metric Total
tons/year) Plants tons/year) Capacity (%)
45-77 11 1.0 -4.0
82-127 26 2.5 10.1
136-204 21 3.4 13.4
218-340 11 3.1 12.3
363-544 21 9.1 36.1
907-1197 6 6.1 24.2
The electric-arc furnace is a short, cylindrical-shaped
furnace having a rather shallow hearth. Three carbon
electrodes project through the fixed or moveable roof into
the furnace. Charge materials consist of prepared scrap,
although one or two electric furnace shops make use of
molten pig iron as part of the charge. After charging, the
melting operation is started by turning on the electric
power to the electrodes which are in contact with the scrap.
Electrical resistance of the scrap produces heating and
eventual melting of the scrap. Additional scrap is added,
and refining is accomplished by blowing high-purity oxygen
into the molten scrap to remove carbon and silicon.
Ferroalloys are added as needed .to attain the desired final
chemical composition of the steel. Power is shut off and
the molten metal is tapped into a ladle.
Emission sources and Pollutants. The processes employed in
producing steel are shown in Figure 3-17-1. Five of these
processes are important generators of air emissions, and
therefore they must be controlled to meet State
implementation Plans and Federal New Source Performance
Standards. Fugitive emissions are not considered in this
study. However, in the case of certain steel plants control
of fugitive emissions may be necessary in order to meet air
quality standards.
Sintering Plants. The emissions associated with sinter
plant operations are particulates that (1) become entrained
in the combustion air as it is drawn through the sinter
mixture into the windbox, (2) are generated during the
cooling operation, and (3) are generated during the crushing
and screening operations. Sulfur contained in the fuel is
not considered to be a major problem, although any sulfur
present in the sinter mix or in combustion fuel will be
emitted as sulfur oxides.
2-136
-------
Figure 3-17-1.
iron and steel Production PrOcesses
POLLUTANTS
SHUT
SINTER
CUNKER
r"
lOPEN-HEAl
1
ERING OR RECYCLING
COKE PRODUCTION
METAL UJRGICAL~COKE]
i
r
BASIC-
*™ OXYGEN
» -T!CL „
RECLAIMED
MATERIALS
t
ELECTRIC-
ARC -~
_J
PARTICULATES
».
HYDROGEN
SULF10E
2-137
-------
Coke Plants. Emissions from the production of coke occur
as participates, hydrogen sulfide, sulfur oxides, carbon
monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides. Particulate
emissions occur from the following sources: coal receiving
and stockpiling,- coal grinding and handling, charging of
coke ovens, pushing the coke from the ovens, and coke
quenching. Gaseous emissions occur during the following
operations: charging the coke ovens, the coking cycle, and
subsequent combustion of coke-oven gases.
Open-Hearth Furnace Steelmaking. Particulates are the
primary emissions from open-hearth-furnace operations.
Emissions of iron oxide occur during the time the scrap is
melted and large quantities of iron, silicon, and manganese
oxides are formed and carried into the exhaust system of the
furnace where high-purity oxygen is blown into the steel
bath to remove the carbon. Gaseous emissions are largely
carbon dioxide, but sulfur .oxides may result through use of
sulfur-containing fuels. If the scrap used in the charge
contains combustibles, greater volumes of gaseous
contaminants will be produced.
Basic-Oxygen Furnace Steelmaking. Particulates and carbon
monoxide are major emissions in EOF steelmaking.
Particulate emissions occur at the hot-metal transfer
stations, the flux and alloy material-handling and transfer
points, and the BOF vessel. Carbon monoxide and carbon
dioxide are emitted at the EOF vessel.
Electric-Arc Furnace Steelmaking. Particulates are the
primary emissions released by electric-arc furnace
steelmaking. Charging, scrap melting, oxygen blowing, and
tapping are major sources of particulate emissions. Blowing
the molten steel with high-purity oxygen produces the
highest emission rates. Emissions from the scrap charge and
other operations are similar to those from other steelmaking
processes and constitute the larges portion of the total
emissions.
Control Technology and Costs. The following paragraphs
contain a brief analysis of pollution control methods used
in each process of the iron and steel industry.
Sintering Plants. Electrostatic precipitators, high-energy
scrubbers, and baghouses are used to control the
particulates originating from the sinter strand. Dry
cyclones and baghouses are used to control particulates from
other emission sources. Developments in blast-furnace
technology which require additions of limestone and dolomite
to the sinter mix make continued use of electrostatic
precipitators problematical because of the difference in
2-138
-------
electrical properties between limestone dusts and iron-
containing dusts, installation of high-energy wet scrubbers
may be required as replacements for some existing
electrostatic precipitator installations.
Coke Plants. The technology for controlling emissions from
coke ovens is still in the developmental stage; definitive
control measures have not been established. Scrubbers are
being used as the principal control technique for
particulates in the control systems now under development.
In addition to air-pollution-control devices, improved coke
oven design and improved operating practices {such as
sequence charging) are factors offering significant means of
control.
Open-Hearth-Furnace Steelmaking. Electrostatic
precipitators and high-energy scrubbers are used in
controlling emissions from open-hearth furnaces.
Basic-Oxygen Furnace Steelmaking. Electrostatic
precipitators and high-energy scrubbers are the principal
control systems applied to the BOF. Baghouses have been
suggested for use in the United States and have been tried
in Europe. Baghouses are used for collecting particulates
at the hot-metal stations, and the flux and ferroalloy
handling locations.
Table 3-17-1 shows the estimated growth of the steel
industry in terms of sales, production, and capacity in
SEAS. it is estimated that the open-hearth process of
making steel will decline in importance as the basic oxygen
and electric-arc processes increase in importance.
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Agency by Temple, Barker & Sloane,
inc.,(TBS)1. This analysis was conducted in somewhat
greater depth than, and subsequent to the general data
gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The TBS estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
75-77 75-83
incremental Investment 2,100 3,300
incremental O&M 200 2,300
2-139
-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these'costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are that TBS
estimates are based on 1983 capacity while SEAS is based on
1972 production levels. There are also substantial
differences in industry definition between the two studies.
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculations are presented
in Table 3-17-1. The TBS study includes costs associated
with fugitive emissions and "other air." SEAS confines its
analysis to stack emissions. Fugitive emissions account for
40 percent of capital expenditures in 1975-1983 for the TBS
study. TBS credits the 1974 Cost of Clean Air Report as
being a basis for the stack emission control costs of $1.65
billion over 1975-1983. SEAS forecasts a total figure of
$3.33 billion for meeting the standards by 1979. In many
instances, control of fugitive emissions may be necessary
for plants to meet air quality standards. To the extent
that such control is necessary, the SEAS forecasts tend to
underestimate total control costs. The assumed phasing of
expenditures has almost half of this occuring before 1975,
with a resultant estimate of $1.80 billion in 1975-1979.
This includes costs associated with expansion. Allowing for
expansion costs to 1983 gives a figure of $2.27 billion.
SEAS also bases its calculations upon research done for the
1974 Cost of Clean Air Report with revisions and
modifications to assumptions by the same group that did the
original Clean Air Report computations. Thus, much of the
differences between the SEAS figures and those of TBS can be
attributed to differences in assumed growth patterns and
phasing of capital expenditures.
» "Economic Analysis of Proposed and Interim Final Effluent
Guidelines, Integrated Iron and Steel Industry",
Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc., March, 1976.
2-140
-------
to
I
Table 3-17-1.
Iron and Steel Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL 1975 198O
Capacity (1.0OO MT/Yr) 131,879 14O,159
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = O.94%
1985
136.358
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
1. Sintering
(alternatives)
(alternat ives)
2. Coking
(sequential )
3. Open Hearth
4. Basic Oxygen
Model Plant Sizes
Segment
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
6
( 1 ,OQO MT/Yr)
508: 1 . 1OO;2,7OO;
5.25O
5OO
575
50O
422; 1, 100:2.375;
3, SCO; 5. 200
550
1 ,30O
2,OOO;3,375
125; 150
1 ,25O
500:750; 1.50O;
2,OOO:3,50O
1 ,250; 2, BOO
1. 125;2,333
875; 2.325
1 ,44O
965
1 ,633; 1.500:2.265:
3.50O
3,OOO;2,575;4,O5O
Control Technology
ESP
Flooded Disc Scrubber
ESP
Flooded Disc Scrubber
ESP
Flooded Disc Scrubber
Baghouses
CO gas desul fur izat ion
Charging Car Collector
Collection Hood
ESP
ESP
ESP
ESP
Scrubber
ESP
Scrubber
ESP
ESP
ESP
Scrubber
Standard
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
1 1 1 i no i s
1 1 1 i no i s
Federal
Federal
Federal
H2S Federal
Federal
Federal
Pennsylvania
Cal ifornia
11 1 1nois
Federal
Federal
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Cal ifornia
11 1 inois
Federal
Federal
-------
Table 3-17-1. (Continued)
Iron and Steel Industry Data Summary
5. Electric Arc 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 1
EMISSIONS (1,000 MT/Yr)
Particulates
1971 Controls:
Open Hearth
BOF
Electr ic-Arc
Legislated Controls:
Open Hearth
BOF
Electric Arc
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
64;120;185:272;
40O,8OO
200;350;488
1 ,000
8O;1O2;160
1O8;575
187;35O;GOO;725
1 ,OOO
69;108;175;338:463
7SO:1.177
100;35O
300;477;1,200
450
Baghouse
Building Evacuation
Scrubber
Baghouse
Building Evacuation
Baghouse
Scrubber
Baghouse
Building Evacuation
Scrubbers
ESP
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
California
Cali fornla
111 1 no i s
11 Hno i s
Federal
Federal
Federal
Federal
1975
633.58
156.64
444,62
32.32
186.52
45. 18
132.OO
9.34
1,091.86
429.O1
345.32
83.69
1980
84O.86
136.07
653.58
51.21
19.67
3.06
15.41
1 .20
36. OO
626.81
492.62
134.18
1985
889.34
56.38
764,04
68,92
18.20
1 . 1O
15.69
1 .41
4.52
652.53
517.95
134.58
1971-85
1976-85
3,551.84
6,961.31
5,467.79
1,493.52
1 . 193. 19
6.O87.11
4,789.28
1 ,297.83
-------
IRON FOUNDRIES INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics ana Capacities. Iron foundries
may be found in almost all urban areas. The economies of
scale for the industry do not prohibit the continued
existence of relatively small foundries. Because many of
the foundries are operated in conjunction with steel making
facilities, iron foundries tend to be concentrated in the
major steel producing states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan,
Illinois, and Alabama.
Iron foundries range from primitive, unmechanized hand
operations to modern, highly-mechanized operations. Captive
plants (owned or controlled by other businesses) are more
likely to be mechanized and better equipped with emission-
control equipment than are noncaptive plants.
In 1973, about 6 percent of the 1,432 plants were classified
as large (over 500 employees), 29 percent as medium (100 to
500 employees), and 65 percent as small (less than 100
employees).
The major markets for iron castings include motor vehicles,
farm machinery, and industries that build equipment for the
construction, mining, oil, metalworking, and railroad
industries. Captive plants have the capability of
economical production of large lots of closely related
castings. Most of the largest plants are captive and do not
generally produce for the highly competitive open market.
Castings for machine parts, automotive partst and soil pipe
are produced from both pig iron and scrap. Cupola,
electric-arc, electric-induction, and reverberatory furnaces
are used. In 1973, 79 percent of the production was by
cupolas, 12 percent by electric-arc furnaces, and the
remainder by induction and reverberatory furnaces. The
latter two types emit relatively small quantities of
pollutants and require little or no emissions-control
equipment.
The cupola furnace is a vertical, cylindrical furnace in
which the heat for melting the iron is provided by injecting
air to burn coke which is in direct contact with the charge.
An electric-arc furnace is an enclosed, cup-shaped
refractory shell that contains the charge. Three graphite
or carbon electrodes extend downward from the roof. An
electric arc between the electrodes and the charge generates
the required heat. The cupola melts the charge
continuously, while the arc furnace operates in a batch
mode.
2-143
-------
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from cupolas are
carbon monoxide, participates, and oil vapors. Particulate
emissions arise from dirt on the metal charge and from fines
in the coke and limestone charge. Hydrocarbon emissions
arise primarily from partial combustion and distillation of
oil from greasy scrap charged to the furnace, but their
control is not costed in this report because the emissions
are small. Arc furnaces produce the same Kind of emissions
to a lesser degree because of the absence of coke and
limestone in the charge.
The particulate emission factor for uncontrolled cupola
operation is taken to be 8.5 Kg per metric ton. The best
available estimate of the particulate emission factor for
uncontrolled arc furnaces is taken to be 5 kg per metric
ton.
An uncontrolled cupola generates approximately 150 kg carbon
monoxide per metric ton of charge. Half of this carbon
monoxide burns in the stack. On this basis, the estimated
emission factor for carbon monoxide discharged from an
uncontrolled cupola is approximately 75 kg per metric ton of
charge. Uncontrolled arc furnaces produce negligible
quantities of carbon monoxide.
Control Technology and Costs, in industrial practice, large
cupolas use high-energy scrubbers to control the emission of
particulates to acceptable levels. Medium sized cupolas can
use either a high-energy scrubber or a baghouse. For small
cupolas and arc furnaces, baghouses are preferred.
High-energy scrubbers usually are operated at a particulate
collection efficiency of 95 percent. This efficiency can be
increased to 99 percent by increasing the pressure drop.
Fabric filters (baghouses) have an efficiency of 98 percent.
Electrostatic precipitators also have a high efficiency rate
of 96 percent.
Afterburners are used to control carbon monoxide emissions
from cupolas. The efficiency of afterburners to control
carbon monoxide emission is generally taken to be 94
percent.
Table 3-18-1 presents annualized production and cost control
data for the industry; iron castings are made using either
the cupola or electric-arc process. To estimate the costs
of controlling air pollution from this industry, the five
processes were listed individually for cost-comparison
evaluation.
2-144
-------
Table 3-18-1.
Iron Foundries Industry Data Summary
I
I—
>f»
Ul
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity (Million MT/Yr)
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Process 1 ~ Cupola
Process 2 - Cupola
Process 3 - Cupola
Process 4 - Arc Furnace
Process 5 - Arc Furnace
EMISSIONS d.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
PartIculates
Carbon Monoxide
Legislated Controls:
Partlculates
Carbon Monoxide
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
198O
1985
i Period
36.25
1976-85 = 3.
41
16%
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Yr)
87.OOO;
87.OOO
13,060;
13.O6O;
13,060;
1
\
> )
13.060:2,180
2,180
2, 180
2,180
1975
9O.93
,171.81 1,
47.93
637. OO
86.85
154. OO
52.27
101 .73
.98
44.58
Pollutants Control
Carbon Monoxide
Part ieulates
Partlculates
Carbon Monoxide
Partlculates
198O
119,
539
21
313
16.
241,
79,
162,
.48
.83 1
. 12
.74
.66
.25
.22
.03
1985
129. 8O
.672.83
2.61
100.75
2.9.4
232. €2
82.95
149.67
led Control
Technology
Afterburners
Scrubber
Baghouse
Afterburners
Baghouse
1971-85
5O9.66
2,599.24
867. 16
1,732.07
1976-85
188 .-48
2,258.09
749.08
1,509.01
-------
STEEL FOUNDRIES INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. Two types of
steel are produced from steel foundries: carbon steel
castings and alloy-stainless steel castings, carbon steel
representing 90 percent of the productive capacity. The
electric-arc furnace is the established equipment for the
melting of steels that are subsequently poured into molds to
make castings. Castings may be in a semi-finished form that
requires considerable machining before it can be used in
other components, or it may be a high quality product that
requires a minimum of additional worX before subsequent use.
Production of steel castings closely parallels the
production of steel.
in determining control costs, the foundries producing large
castings were grouped with the foundries producing carbon-
steel castings on a one-shift basis.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Particulates comprise
almost 100 percent of the emissions occurring during the
production of steel for castings. Minor amounts of carbon
monoxidet nitrogen oxides, and hydrocarbons may be emitted.
Most of the particulate emissions, which occur during the
charging operation, are carried upward by the thermal gas
currents created by the hot furnace; these emissions are
generated during the charging operation and are the most
difficult to control.
Control Technology and costs. The allowable emissions of
particulates per unit of process weight per hour under state
Implementation Plans (Pennsylvania standards used as
typical) and Federal New Source Performance Standards for
electric arc steelmaking were used as guidelines in
establishing the level of control likely to be required for
electric-arc furnace steel foundries, and the subsequent
costs.
Baghouses are the only reported means for the control of
einissions from steel foundry electric-arc furnaces. One of
the probable reasons for not using scrubbers or
electrostatic precipitators is the lack of space for
installing the required water treatment facilities in the
case of scrubbers, and a reluctance on the part of the
smaller foundry operators to get involved with electrostatic
precipitators
The inventory of electric-arc furnace steel foundries used
in the report is based on information in two foundry
directories and information in the published literature. A
2-146
-------
few steel foundries still use open hearth furnaces but these
are rapidly being phased out of use.
Development of control costs for steel foundries is
complicated by several factors: foundries do not operate the
same number of hours during the year, different furnaces
sizes are used in a single plant, some foundries specialize
in plain-carbon steel castings, and some foundries produce
only those castings that can be produced in large production
runs, while a small number produce large, complicated
castings on a one-or two-shift basis. Table 3-19-1 shows
the annualized summary information for steel foundries.
2-147
-------
Table 3-19-1.
Steel Foundries Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
it*
CO
Capacity 1M111ion MT/Yr) 1,724.0 1.998.O
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 2.78%
1985
1,981 .O
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Carbon/Alloy 5,583
EMISSIONS (1,000 MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
PartIculates
Legislated Controls;
PartIculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(1.OOO MT/Yr)
1975
27.39
15.57
3.39
43.28
40.77
2.51
Pollutants Controlled
PartIculates
1980
36.82
8.76
3.03
47.5O
43.21
4.29
1985
37.68
O.82
48.06
43.82
4.24
Control Technology
Baghouse
1971-85
1976-85
269.23
58O.66
535.33
45.33
18.72
468.60
428.26.
4O.34
-------
PRIMARY ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The domestic
primary aluminum industry is presently comprised of 12
companies operating 31 reduction facilities in 16 states.
Three companies, Alcoa, Reynolds, and Kaiser, operate about
two-thirds of the total capacity. Plants tend to be located
in areas where cheap electrical power is available. The
plant-size distribution for the industry is as follows:
Size Range No.
(1,000 Metric Tons/Year) Plants capacity(%)
0-90.7 6 8.8
90.8-136 11 28.1
136.1-190 8 30.8
191-254 6 32.3
31 100.0
Aluminum is one of the most abundant of the elements and
when measured either in quantity or value, its use exceeds
that of any other primary metal except steel, it is used to
some extent in virtually all segments of the economy, but
its principal uses have been in transportation, building and
construction, electrical industry, containers and packaging,
consumer durables, and machinery and equipment. Growth rate
of aluminum industry in the United States has averaged 7
percent in recent years.
Bauxite ore (typically containing 50-55 percent alumina) is
the principal source of aluminum. Alumina is extracted from
bauxite by any one of a number of variations of the Bayer
process. In turn, alumina is dissolved in molten cryolite
and reduced to aluminum by electrolysis in the universally-
used Hall-Heroult aluminum reduction cells, which are
connected in series to form a potline.
The aluminum reduction plant may be classified according to
the type of anodes used in the cells; there are two major
types based on how they are replaced. Prebaked anodes are
replaced intermittently, and Soderberg anodes are replaced
continuously. In the Soderberg continuous system, an anode
paste is continuously supplied to a rectangular metal shell
suspended above the cell. As the anode shell descends, it
is baked by the heat of the cell. The two types of
Soderberg anodes use different support methods: a Vertical
2-149
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Stud System supported on vertical current-carrying pins
(studs), and & Horizontal Stud System supported by pins
which are inclined slightly from the horizontal.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. All three alternative
processes currently used to produce aluminum release
particulates which must be controlled.
Of the three anode systems in use, prebaked, horizontal
Soderberg, and vertical Soderberg, the vertical Soderberg
system emits the lowest quantity of particulates, and the
prebaKed and horizontal Soderberg systems are higher in
pollutant emissions. On the other hand, the prebaKed system
is easiest to control, the vertical Soderberg somewhat more
difficult, and the horizontal Soderberg the most difficult
to control, leading to a gradual phasing out of the latter
two processes.
Control Technology and Costs, in this analysis, it was
assumed that 98 percent control of particulates would be
sufficient to comply with ambient standards in all cases.
New sources are assumed to be of the prebaked process only,
and it is further assumed that the New source Performance
Standards for fluorides will be met by the same control
processes applied for particulate control at no additional
cost. Assumed control processes for the three production
processes are shown below:
Cell. Type
Prebaked
Horizontal
Soderberg
vertical
Soderberg
Primary Control
Secondary control
Primary Collection None Needed
(Hoods and Ducting),
Plus Fluidized-Bed
Dry Scrubber
Primary Collection, Spray Screen and
Wet Electrostatic Water Treatment
Precipitator, Spray
Tower, or Fluidized-
Bed Dry Scrubber
(experimental)
Primary collection,
Wet-Electrostatic
Precipitator or
Spray Tower
Spray Screen and
Water Treatment
2-150
-------
Table 3-20-1 shows the estimated growth of primary aluminum
production. Note that the prebaked anode process is the
dominant one in existence now, and that all new plants are
assumed to employ this process. Two new production
processes, the Alcoa and the Toth, which are claimed to be
essentially non-polluting, are now being investigated. if
successful, costs for new sources beyond 1980 might be
substantially lower than indicated.
2-151
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ui
to
Table 3-20-1.
Primary Aluminum Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (1,000 MT/Yr) 4,243 4,940
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 1.69%
1985
4,653
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Prebaked Anode
Horizontal Soderberg
Vertical Soderberg
EMISSIONS (1,000 MT/Yr)
Participates:
1971 Controls:
Model Plant Sizes
(1.OOO MT/Yr)
144
137
32
1975
49,22
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Particulates
PartIculates
Particulates
Hoods and Ducting;
Scrubber
Hoods and Ducting;
Wet ESP; Scrubber
Hoods and Ducting;
Wet ESP
1980
65 .49
1985
63.90
1971-85
1976-85
Prebaked Anode
Horizontal Soderberg
Vertical Soderberg
Legislated Controls:
Prebaked Anode
Horizontal Soderberg
Vertical Soderberg
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
33.
12.
3.
24
16.
6
1
629
473
19O
282
41
,€7
14
.48
.62
.04
.82
.46
.02
.84
. 18
50.
1 1 .
2.
15,
11 .
2
1
6
669
288
381
61
97
91
,39
,90
.44
.OS
.64
.66
. 13
.51
53.
8.
1 .
3.
3.
O
0
0
59O
289
301
76
17
97
,64
07
.40
. 17
.25 2.O54.64
.56 7,295.29
.22 3,110.06
.34 4,185.23
699. O6
6,286.73
2,734.70
3,552.03
-------
SECONDARY ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. Aluminum has
become one of the most important metals in industry- only
iron surpasses it in tonnages used. Major uses of the metal
are in the construction industry, aircraft/ motor vehicles,
electrical equipment and supplies, beverage cans, and
fabricated metal products which include a wide variety of
home consumer products. The automotive industry is a large
user of secondary aluminum ingot.
Secondary aluminum ingot is produced to specification;
melting to specification is achieved mainly by segrating the
incoming scrap into alloy types. The magnesium content can
be removed with a chlorine gas treatment in a reverberatory
furnace.
For the purpose of this report, the secondary aluminum
industry is defined as that industry which produces
secondary aluminum ingot to chemical specifications from
aluminum scrap and sweated pig. The industry is viewed as
consisting of secondary aluminum' smelters excluding primary
aluminum companies, non-integrated fabricators, and scrap
dealers.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The most serious emission
sources during secondary aluminum smelting are: the drying
of oil borings and turnings, the sweating furnace, and the
reverberatory furnace. Emissions from the drying process
are vaporized oils, paints, vinyls, etc; the sweating
furnace produces vaporized fluxes, fluorides, etc- and the
reverberatory furnace emissions are similar to the other two
plus hydrogen chloride, aluminum chloride, and magnesium
chloride from the chlorine gas treatment used to remove
magnesium. As of 1970, an estimated 25 percent of
chlorination station emissions were controlled, and it is
estimated that by 1980, 80 percent will be controlled.
The several processes that cause emissions during the
operation of a reverberatory furnace must be understood to
calculate control costs properly; they are:
• Emissions at the forewell. Secondary smelters charge
scrap directly into the foreweli of the reverberatory
furnace, and any oil, paint, vinyl, grease, etc., on
the scrap vaporizes. The emissions from the charging
process vary greatly with the material charged.
Quantitative data on forewell emissions or the need for
control are not available and costs or possible costs
cannot be estimated.
2-153
-------
• Emissions from the bath. During the time the aluminum
bath is molten, it is covered with a flux to protect it
from oxidation.
• Emissions caused by chlorination. The magnesium
content of aluminum can be reduced by chlorination, but
chlorination produces chloride emissions. Particulate
emissions from the chlorination process are 500
kilograms per metric ton of chlorine used. Maximum
magnesium removal requires about 18 kilograms of
chlorine per metric ton of aluminum which has an
emission rate of 9 kilograms of particulates per metric
ton of aluminum. Magnesium removal is practiced by
plants representing 92 percent of the estimated
industry capacity. A small portion of these plants use
aluminum fluoride fluxing for magnesium removal rather
than chlorine. This report assumes that control costs
for these few plants are similar to those that use
chlorination. Wet scrubbing is the usual means of
controlling chlorination station emissions,- recent
innovations on a dry control process are being tested.
Control Technology and Costs. Dryer emissions are known to
exist and in many cases are treated with afterburners;
however, there is insufficient data relating to the drying
operations to permit evaluations of possible costs that
might be expended to meetvair-quality specifications.
Sweating furnace emissions, fluoride from fluxes, organic
materials, oils, etc., can be controlled by using
afterburners, followed by a wet scrubber or baghouse, for
which control costs have been reported. However, no data is
available on the number, capacity, or location of sweating
furnaces. Thus, realistic estimate of control costs cannot
be made, industry costs and operating data are included in
Table 3-21-1.
2-154
-------
Table 3-21-1.
Secondary Aluminum Industry Data Summary
NJ
I
ui
Ul
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity ( 1 , OOO MT/Yr)
Annual Growth Rate Over
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Model 1
Model 2
Mode 1 3
Mode 1 4
1975
1.O22 1,
the Period 1976-8S =
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Yr)
5,261 ; 17, 12O;
43,536
198O 1985
361 1,635
5 . 80%
Pollutants Controlled
Particulates
Part iculates
Particulates
Particulates
Control Technology
Wet
Wet
Wet
Wet
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber
Scrubber
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
Particulates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capi tal
O&M
1975
8.67
4.79
12.74
5.98
3.11
2.87
1980
13.88
4.41
1 .49
9.48
4.36
5. 12
1985
17. 2O
3.65
O.72
10.92
5.04
5.88
1971-85
1976-85
35.69
103.39
48.23
55. 16
11 .83
91 .85
42.59
49.26
-------
PRIMARY COPPER INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Copper is one of
the most important of the nonferrous metals, surpassed only
by iron in ore tonnage produced in the United States. Its
extensive use depends chiefly upon its electrical and heat
conductivity, corrosion resistance, ductility, and the
toughness of its alloys. Mechanical properties (and
sometimes special properties) are enhanced by alloying with
zinc to form brass, with tin to form bronze, with aluminum
or silicon to form the higher strength bronzes, with
beryllium to form high strength-high conductivity bronzes,
with nickel to form corrosion resistant alloys, and with
lead to form bearing metals.
Principal users of copper include the 'electrical,
electronic, and allied industries for manufacturing power
transmission lines, other electrical conductors, and
machinery. The automobile industry (radiators, wiring, and
bearings) and building-construction industry (tubing,
plumbing) are the second- and third-largest consumers of
copper in the United States.
Copper ore is either surface or underground mined,
concentrated by ore-beneficiation techniques, then sent to
the smelter. Processing of copper concentrates at a smelter
involves the following operations. Roasting is normally
used to dry the finely ground concentrates and to remove
some sulfur, arsenic, antimony and selenium impurities.
Roasting is frequently bypassed in modern smelters because
better concentration methods remove free pyrite and permit
the substitution of simple dryers for roasters at some
smelters. The roasted concentrate is treated in a
reverberatory furnace to produce an intermediate material
called matte, which nominally contains copper, iron, and
sulfur. The matte is converted to impure blister copper by
blowing with air of an air-oxygen mixture in a vessel called
a converter to remove the sulfur and the iron. Removal of
the impurities from blister copper is sometimes limited to
fire refining, in which the impurities are removed in a
furnace by volatilization and oxidation. More often, it
entails a two-step procedure: fire refining to produce
electrodes for further refining by electrolytic methods.
The principal sectors of the primary copper industry
(mining, smelting, refining, fabricating and marketing) are
dominated in varying degrees by three large, vertically-
integrated companies. The plant size distribution for 15
active smelter operations, based on equivalent roaster
charge, is shown in the tabulation below:
2-156
-------
Capacity Range
(1,000 metric No.
tons/year 1 Plants
0-181 1
182-363 4
364-544 4
545-816 3
817-907 3
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from coppper
smelters are primarily particulates and sulfur oxides from
the roaster, reverberatory, and converter furnaces. The
density and continuity of'emissions vary with the furnace
type. Particulates can contain considerable byproduct
credits, particularly noble metals and selenium.
Accordingly, part of the traditional production process is
to recycle particulates up to the limit of economic
viability, between 90 to 99.5 percent control, leaving the
rest to be discharged as uncontrolled emission.
The three processes that produce significant sulfur dioxide
and particulate emissions in the production of primary
copper are shown in Figure 3-2.2-1. The roasting process may
be bypassed by modern smelters that have better
concentration methods to remove free pyrite. Half of the
plants operating in 1971 were able to bypass the roaster
process.
2-157
-------
Figure 3-Z2-1.
Primary Copper Production Processes
POLLUTANTS
M1NIN
SMELT
RO/
f
G
cr (OR)
^STING
1 1 i
*EVERBERATORY
FURNACE
i
MATTE
t
CONVERTER
*
TSP
™
«.
SULFUR
DIOXIDE
2-158
-------
Sulfur dioxide is emitted from all.three smelter operations;
however, the concentration of sulfur.dioxide in the gases
varies considerably among the three. Sulfur dioxide
concentrations for fluid-solid roasters, reverberatory, and
converter furnaces are 6-10 percent, 0.50-2 percent, and 2-5
percent by volume, respectively.
Control Technology and Costs. In 1971, approximately 95
percent of the particulate emissions were being controlled
from copper smelters because of the economic advantage of
recovering precious metals. Further removal of particulates
is required to allow the sulfur dioxide control devices to
operate effectively.
It is assumed that most smelters will manufacture sulfuric
acid by the contact process from the sulfur dioxide in the
roaster and'the converter gases. Two major conditions must
be met; (1) the concentration of sulfur dioxide in the gas
stream should be at least 4 percent by volume, and (2) the
gas must be practically free of particulate matter to avoid
poisoning the catalyst in the acid plant. Eleven smelters
already have acid plants. The one plant in Michigan does
not require an acid plant beause of the low sulfur content
of the ore, and therefore it is not costed out in this
report.
Several methods have been proposed and have been considered
here for the purpose of removing the sulfur dioxide from the
reverberatory gas stream. These include:
• Absorption of sulfur dioxide in dimethylaniline,
followed by desorption and recovery.
•• cominco absorption process in which sulfur dioxide is
absorbed into an ammonium sulfite solution, which
yields concentrated sulfur dioxide and an ammonium
sulfate by-product.
• Wet lime scrubbing, whereby the reverberatory furnace
gases are scrubbed in a slurry of lime and water.
• wet limestone scrubbing, essentially similar to wet
lime scrubbing except a slurry of limestone, is used as
the scrubbing medium.
Annualized control costs and industry operating statistics
are detailed in Table 3-22-1.
2-159
-------
I
t->
o
Table 3-22-1.
Primary Copper Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (Million MT/Yr) 9.06 1O.SS
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 2.62%
1985
1O. 26
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Yr)
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Roaster
Reverberatoy Furnace or
Converter
EMISSIONS (1.0OO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Sulfur Dioxide.
Part icul ates
Legislated Controls:
Sulfur Dioxide
Part Iculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
7O4 , OOO
40O,OOO;501
, 4OO
1975
2.O32
56
1 , 1O5
26
$)
267
21O
135
75
.58
.73
.54
.41
.78
.75
.44
,31
502 &
S02 &
S02 &
198O
2,966
82
475
3
25
319
195
123
.87
.81
.71
.79
. 13
. 18
.72
.46
TSP
TSP
TSP
Acid Plant
Limestone Scrubber
Acid Plant
1985
3.O1 1 ,
84.
98
2
318
196
121
.89
06
.42
.72
O
.57
.97
.60
1971-85
1 ,210.89
3 , 4O7 . 3O
2, 1O3. 11
1 ,3O4. 19
1976-85
378.67
2,954.45
1 ,817 .81
1 , 135.63
-------
SECONDARY BRASS AND BRONZE INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The secondary
brass and bronze industry may be divided into two segments:
ingot manufacturers and brass mills. Both segments of the
industry charge scrap into a furnace where it is melted and
alloyed to meet design specifications for chemical
composition. Ingot manufacturers use either a stationary
reverberatory furnace or a rotary furnace for most of their
production. Small quantities of special alloys are
processed in crucible or electric induction furnaces. A few
cupolas exist in which highly oxidized metalt such as
skimmings and slag, is reduced by heating the charge in
contact with coXe. Ingot manufacturing invariably requires
injection of air to refine the scrap. Brass mills use scrap
that does not require such extensive refining; the channel
induction furnace is the most common type used in these
mills.
The number of ingot manufacturing furnaces in existence in
1972 was calculated to be 122. Of these furnaces, 13 were
large, 29 were medium, and 80 were small. The large
furnaces produced 50 percent of the total annual ingots,
while the medium furnaces produced 30 percent, and tlie small
furnaces produced 20 percent.
The capacity of channel induction furnaces for brass mills
ranges from 0.5 to 5 metric tons, with smaller furnaces
being the most common. It was estimated that there were 35
plants in existence in 1973 with an average of 3.7 furnaces
per plant, or a total of 130 furnaces.
Emission sources and Pollutants. Metallurgical fumes
containing chiefly zinc oxide and lead oxide are the major
emissions from the reverberatory and rotary furnaces that
are used by ingot manufacturers and from the induction
furnaces that are used by the brass mills. Fly ash, carbon,
and mechanically-produced dust are often present in the
exhaust gases, particularly from the furnaces used by the
ingot manufacturers. Zinc oxide and lead oxide condense to
form a very fine fume which is difficult to collect.
Control Technology and Costs. Ingot manufacturers use
fabric-filter baghouses, high-energy wet scrubbers, and
electrostatic precipitators because of their high efficiency
in collecting the fine zinc oxide fumes; 67 percent use a
baghouse, 28 percent use a scrubber, and 5 percent use an
electrostatic precipitator.
2-161
-------
The collected dust was assumed to have a value of 10 cents
per kilogram, and an average collector efficiency of 97.5
percent. This value of collected dusts was applied as a
credit to control costs.
Fabric filter baghouses are used on the brass induction
furnaces to collect the particulates. Investment and annual
costs were obtained from three plants that use furnaces with
capacities ranging from 22 to 32 metric tons per day. The
average value for the three plants was used for the model
furnace of 25 metric tons per day. NO credit for collected
dust is assumed for brass mills.
Annualized control costs and industry operating statistics
are detailed in Table 3-23-1.
2-162
-------
Table 3-23-1 .
Secondary Brass and Bronze Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL ' . 1975 1980 1985
Capacity, (Mi 1 1 ion MT/Yr) O.959 1.152 1.196
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 3.68%
N>
,L Model Plant Sizes
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS (MT/Yr) Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
0*3
Model 1 716 Particualtes Fabric Filter
Model 2 2,966 Particulates Fabric Filter
Model 3 6,105 Particulates Fabric Filter
Model 4 11.O20 Particulates Fabric Filter
EMISSIONS (1.0OO MT/Yr) 1975 1980 1985 1971-85 1976-85
1971 Controls:
Particulates 5.21 7.94 8.58
Legislated Controls:
Particulates 2.57 0.51 0.54
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment 5.16 O.54 O.O7 21.17 6.29
Total Annual 4.94 7.28 7.O8 78.03 67.53
Capital 1.96 2.78 2.78 29 . 7O 25.58
O&M 2.99 4.5O 4.30 48.33 41.94
-------
PRIMARY LEAD INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Lead production
in the. united States involves three major steps: mining,
crushing, and grinding of sulfide ores,-and benefication to
produce lead concentrates; smelting of the concentrates by
pyrometallurgical methods to produce impure lead bullion,-
and refining the bullion to separate other metal values and
impurities.
The U.S. primary lead industry has some 80 small mining
companies in 14 states who mine and mill their own
concentrates; some of the smaller mines utilize custom
mills. Smelting and refining of lead in the United States
is done by four companies (Asarco, St. Joe, Amax, and Bunker
Hill) that operate six smelters and five refineries. St.
Joe is the only company not involved in custom smelting
(outright purchase of concentrates) or toll smelting
(smelting of concentrates for a fee).
Battery components accounted for 46 percent of the 1.40
million metric tons of lead consumed in 1973. Gasoline
antiknock additives accounted for 16 percent, pigments 7
percent, ammunition 5 percent, solder 4 percent, cable
covering 3 percent and miscellaneous metal products, such as
castings, weights, and ballast, the remainder.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from lead
smelters are primarily particulates and sulfur dioxide from
two sources: sintering machines and blast furnaces. Most of
the sulfur dioxide is removed in the sintering machine; the
density of emissions varies with the source.
Flue-gas particulates include the following metals: as high
as 30 percent lead, and traces of zinc, antimony, cadmium,
and copper. in Western smelters, often significant
byproduct credits of noble metals are also emitted; in one
case, over 30 ounces of silver per ton and 0.14 ounce of
gold was recovered. Thus, there is an economic reason to
recover particulates in addition to fume control. The
emissions from the slag furnaces used in the Western
smelters to recover zinc also include particulates
containing zinc oxide and zinc dust.
Control Technology and Costs. Sulfur oxides and particulates
in sintering machine off-gases are being controlled by the
use of sulfuric acid plants in three of the six U.S.
smelters. in these smelters, particulate control is
required for effective operation of the acid-plant system.
in the three U.S. smelters without acid plants, most of the
particulates in the processing off-gases are removed from
Z-164
-------
the cooled off-gases in a baghouse prior to the stack;
sulfur oxide in the off-gases is not controlled. One of
these smelters has an acid plant which is used only on the
off-gases from a copper converter in an adjoining plant.
Each of the six U.S. plants was examined in terms of
equipment required to bring the plant within Federal ambient
standards. Acid plants were assumed for those plants which
do not now control sulfur oxide emissions. Methods of
metallurgical operation at all six plants are similar, the
differences stem from the type of ore handled by the three
Missouri smelters and by the three Western smelters. In the
West, lead ore concentrates are leaner with much higher
amounts of gold, silver, zinc, cadmium, copper, antimony,
and arsenic present. Except for a slagfuming furnace
operation in the Western smelters to remove the higher
amounts of zinc in the concentrates, there are no major
differences in the basic smelter operations. There is a
difference in degree in the refining operations, but off-
gases are not a problem in the refineries. Refining
involves kettle operations at low temperatures just above
the melting point of lead; no fumes are produced.
To determine control costs, the following sequences were
assumed. The feed has a sulfur content of 15 percent, of
which 85 percent is removed as sulfur dioxide in the sinter
step. Particulate emissions are 54.5 kg/ton of feed In the
sinterer, and 13.6 Kg/ton of feed in the blast furnace.
Sulfur dioxide from the sinter step is available for
conversion into acid. The acid plant is assumed to convert
90 percent of the sulfur dioxide it receives, emitting the
rest. With an acid plant on the sinter, the additional gas
cleaning scrubber is assumed to remove 90 percent of
particulates. The results of these calculations are
presented in Table 3-24-1 along with anticipated emission
levels.
2-165
-------
!-•
-------
SECONDARY LEAD INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The secondary
lead industry is defined as the industry that recovers lead
or lead alloys by smelting and/or refining lead scrap; this
does not include the activities of scrap dealers who may
sweat lead. A total of 22 companies in the secondary lead
industry operate 45 plants. The two leading producers are
estimated to account for about 64 percent of lead
production.
Approximately
526,000
metric tor>s of secondary lead were
recovered from scrap in 1970. In 1971, production rose to
528,000 metric tons. By 1973, the production of secondary
lead rose to approximately 577,000 metric tons.
The assumption of an average emission factor for cupolas and
reverberatory furnaces allows the breakdown of the secondary
lead industry on the basis of capacity alone. Available
capacity data indicate three model plant sizes. The
estimated industry capacity and model plant data are given
in the following tabulation:
Plant Model I
Plant Model II
Plant Model ill
Capacity
Range
{metric
tons/day)
83-181
27-82
12-26
Total
Capacity
No. (metric
Plants tons/day
23
6
16
2,482
327
253
Model Plant
Capacity
(metric
tons/day
109
54
15.8
Totals
12-181
45
3,062
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emission of particulates
occurs from lead-processing furnaces. Generally, about 67
percent or more of the output of the secondary lead industry
is processed in blast furnaces or cupolas that are used to
reduce lead oxide in the form of battery plates or dross, to
lead. If oxide reduction is not needed, then lead scrap can
be processed in reverberatory furnaces. Kettle or pot
furnaces may be used to produce small batches of alloys for
holding or refining lead. These lead processing furnaces
represent obvious particulate emission sources; the primary
emissions being lead oxide. Another particulate emission
source is the slag tap and feeding ports on the cupolas and
reverberatory furnaces. Although lead is occasionally
2-167
-------
sweated in a reverberator/ furnace, reclamation of secondary
lead by this means is a very small portion of the total lead
production. Emissions from slag operations are not known.
The industry estimate of 90 percent net control in 1970
indicates that nearly all plants had emission controls of
some sort. A control increase to 98 percent estimated by
1980 is based on implementation of the proposed new source
performance standards.
Control Technology and Costs. Either a baghouse or a wet
scrubber can be utilized to achieve emission control. The
baghouse is chosen for this cost analysis because it is
generally cheaper- it is assumed baghouse life averages 15
years.
Annual costs include capital charges, operating and
maintenance, and credits for byproduct recovery value.
Since the lead oxide collected in the control equipment is
recycled into the smelting furnace, it has value as a
byproduct; therefore, the recovery of this lead oxide lowers
estimated operating and maintenance costs.
The calculated costs for Model I, II, and III plants
presented in this model plant cost tabulation included in
Table 3-25-1 were based on the following key points:
• Model I plants are assumed to require two separate
baghouse installations, while Model II and Model III
were assumed to need only one baghouse for control.
* Baghouse airflow needs were estimated at 11.2 cubic
sneters per ton of daily capacity.
• The value of lead oxide recovered from baghouse
operations was estimated to be 5 cents per kilogram,
plus 50 percent. It was further assumed that only the
lead oxide recovered by going from 90 percent net
control in 1970 to an estimated 98 percent net control
in 1980 should be credited against control costs. This
amounts to 6.17 kilograms per ton of lead processed.
In addition, production at full capacity was assumed.
2-168
-------
O\
Table 3-25-1.
Secondary Lead Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (MT/Day) 3.2O6.2 3,598.6
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 3.44%
1985
3.929.O
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Secondary Lead
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
Particulates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
15.8;54;109
1975
3.73
2.35
0.71
1 . 1O
0.26
0.83
Pollutants Controlled
Particulates
Control Technology
Fabric Filter
1980
5.68
1.14
O.62
2.29
0.88
1 .40
1985
6.23
1.52
O. 19
2.77
1 .21
1 .55
1971-85
1976-85
6.33
23.94
8.77
15.16
4.57
21 .62
8.29
13.33
-------
PRIMARY ZINC INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Zinc ranks after
aluminum, copper, and lead in tonnage of nonferrous metals
produced in the United States. Major uses in 1973 were
zinc-base alloys, particulary die-cast alloys used in
automotive and electrical equipment (41 percent), galvanized
steel used in construction and electrical transmission
equipment (36 percent), brass and bronze used for plumbing,
heating, and industrial equipment (14 percent), zinc
chemicals, particularly zinc oxide, used in the rubber,
paint, and ceramic industries (4 percent), and rolled zinc
used in dry cells and lithographic plates (2 percent).
The principal ore minerals are sulfides, which may be
predominantly zinc ores or lead-zinc ores. Also, some zinc
is obtained from lead-base and copper-base ores. Zinc
sulfide concentrates produced from these ores are converted
to the oxide state (calcine) by roasting, and then reduced
to metallic zinc by either electrolytic deposition or by
distillation in retorts or furnaces. in plants using
distillation methods, the calcine is given an additional
sintering step to provide a more compact feed as well as to
remove impurities. Some zinc producing companies also
produce zinc oxide. in pyrolytic plants, both zinc metal
and zinc oxide are produced from zinc vapor; in the first
case, the vapor is condensed to zinc metal; in the second,
it is oxidized in a chamber.
Over three-quarters of the domestic mine production comes
from these six statest Tennessee, Colorado, Missouri, New
York, Idaho, and New Jersey. Numerous small companies
participate in only the mining and beneficiation sector of
the zinc industry; these companies sell their concentrates
to custom smelters.
in 1973, six companies (St. Joe, Asarco, Amax, Bunker Hill,
New jersey zinc, and National Zinc) operated eight primary
zinc plants, all of which operate as custom smelters to some
extent. information on the locations, acid plant
installations, annual capacities, and types of roasting
processes used is also included. The three remaining
horizontal-retort plants totaling 161,000 metric tons of
capacity are in various stages of being phased out of
operation. New electrolytic capacity totaling 354,000
metric tons of zinc will replace these horizontal retort
plants; plant size distribution of the three new U.S.
electrolytic plants is tabulated below.
2-170
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% of U.S. Capacity
After closing
Capacity Feed Capacity/ Slab Zinc Horizontal
(metric tons/yr) (metric tons/yr) Retort plants
296,000 163,000 29
264,000 145,000 26
82,000 45,000 8
The main product of zinc reduction plants is slab zinc. Ore
concentrate capacity in 1973 was 1,337,000 metric tons per
year, equivalent to 763,000 metric tons slab zinc.
Approximately 24 percent of this capacity utilizes
horizontal retort plants; all of which are scheduled for
phasing out in the near future.
In 1973, the three types of pyrothermic plants
(electrothermic, vertical retort, and horizontal retort)
accounted for almost two-thirds of the primary zinc
capacity. This will change in the near future because three
new electrolytic plants are in the early stages of
construction,- they are: the Asarco plant at stephensport,
Kentucky with a planned capacity of 163,000 metric tons of
zinc annually, the New Jersey zinc Company plant at
Clarksville, Tennessee with a planned 145,000 metric tons
capacity, and the Hew National Zinc plant at Blackwell,
Oklahoma with a planned capacity of 45,000 metric tons.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Emissions from zinc
reduction plants are primarily particulates and sulfur
dioxide from the roasters in the electrolytic plants, and
from the roasters and traveling-grate sintering machines in
the pyrothermic plants. In the electrolytic plants, the
calcine from the roaster is substantially sulfur-free so
that there is a heavy concentration of sulfur dioxide in the
off-gases. In the case of the pyrothermic plants, roaster
off-gases are also heavy, but there are only light
concentrations of sulfur dioxide in the sintering machine
off-gases. Particulates are relatively heavy in both
streams.
Control Technology and Costs. Sulfur oxide and particulates
in roaster off-gases are now being controlled by the use of
sulfuric acid plants in six of the present eight plants, in
these cases, particulate control necessary for the effective
operation of the acid plant system is achieved with
associated gas cleaning equipment. With the closing of the
three horizontal retort plants, all the roasters in the
2-171
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primary zinc plants are controlled with acid plants. In the
two remaining pyrothermic plants, the sintering machine
participates are controlled in one case by settling flues,
electrostatic precipitators, and a baghouse, in the other,
by a venturi scrubber.
in general, the control scheme for the primary zinc industry
is to use acid plants on the roaster off-gases where most of
the sulfur dioxide is given off. All other operations, with
the exception of three plants using a horizontal retort,
have particulate control devices. In the case of these
plants with horizontal retorts, conversion to vertical
retort equipment is the practical control scheme; however,
costs for this conversion were not obtained, as this
involves a major plant renovation.
with the closing of the three horizontal retort plants, the
only new control equipment required for the industry is the
acid plants and associated gas cleaning equipment necessary
to control sulfur dioxide and particulates in the three new
electrolytic plants under construction; these controls come
under New source Performance Standards.
Annualized control costs are detailed in Table 3-26-2.
2-172
-------
to
Table 3-26-2.
Primary Zinc Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
Capacity (1.0OO MT/Yr) 1.O24.O
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85
198O
1,2OO.O
= 3.46%
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Roaster and Sinter;
Electrolytic
EMISSIONS (LOGO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Model Plant Sizes
(1,OOO MT/Yr)
42-226
45-163
1975 1980
1985
1 ,283.O
Pollutants Controlled
Particulates (Zinc)
Sulfur Dioxide
Control Technology
Acid Plant
1985
1971-85
1976-85
Particulates (Zinc)
Sul fur Oxides
Legislated Controls:
Particulates (Zinc)
Sulfur Oxides
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
29
212
12,
98
8.
1 1 .
4 .
6,
.59
.98
.46
. 17
.07
O2
.03
,99
42
302
3.
34.
4,
25.
14.
1 1 .
. 14
.32
,32
.54
,61
70
47
23
46
331
3
3O
1 ,
31.
20.
1 1 .
. 18
.27
,26
.39
,52 64 . 49
,92 269.49
.49 145.36
.43 124. 13
42.80
245.32
137.70
107.62
-------
SECONDARY ZINC INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. Zinc ranks after
aluminum, copper, and lead in tonnage of nonferrous metals
produced in the United States. Major uses in 1973 were
zinc-base alloys, particularly die-cast alloys used in
automotive and electrical equipment (41 percent), galvanized
steel used in construction and electrical transmission
equipment (36 percent), brass and bronze used for plumbing,
heating, and industrial equipment (14 percent), zinc
chemicals, particularly zinc oxide, used in the rubber,
paint, and ceramic industries (4 percent), and rolled zinc
used in dry cells and lithographic plates (2 percent).
Secondary zinc comes from two major sources: the zinc-base
alloys and the copper-base alloys. Most of the secondary
zinc that is recovered comes from reconstituted copper-base
alloys,- slab zinc is next, then chemical products, and zinc
dust. For purposes of this report, the 14 operating plants
that comprise the secondary zinc industry use sweating
and/or distilling operations to produce zinc slab, dust, and
oxide solely from scrap. The secondary zinc industry is not
considered to include the activities of:
• Primary zinc producers that may manufacture zinc from
scrap and ore
• Secondary brass and bronze plants that recover zinc in
copper alloys
• Chemical manufacturers that produce zinc compounds by
chemical treatment of zinc scrap
• Scrap dealers that may sweat zinc.
The total secondary industry zinc slab capacity stood at
18,100 metric tons at the end of 1972. Redistilled
secondary zinc slab production in 1971 was 73,400 metric
tons, of that total 11,200 metric tons were produced by the
secondary zinc industry and the remainder was produced by
the primary zinc industry. Other zinc materials produced by
the secondary zinc companies included zinc dust and zinc
oxide, in 1971, slightly over 24,500 metric tons of zinc in
the form of zinc oxide was produced from zinc scrap. It is
assumed that nearly all of this oxide is produced by the
secondary zinc companies and that this production is
indicative of a secondary capacity of 31,700 metric tons per
year of contained zinc. Statistics are not available for
total secondary zinc dust and zinc oxide capacity; estimates
were derived from the available data. To further complicate
2-174
-------
capacity estimation, some production set-ups permit
production of either oxide or slab.
The production of zinc dust from zinc-base scrap in 1970
totaled 26,300 metric tons. It is assumed that much of this
production came from the secondary industry and that
secondary capacity is 31,700 metric tons per year.
No data is available for sweating capacity; which can be
performed in various types of furnaces, it is assumed that
much of the feed material for production of refined
secondary zinc is sweated; sweating capacity is therefore
placed at 63,500 metric tons per year.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. There are at least four
operations which generate emissions in the secondary zinc
industry: materials handling, mechanical pretreatment,
sweating, and distilling. This analysis considers only
control costs for emissions from the sweating and distilling
operations, as insufficient data is available for
calculating the possible costs of controlling emissions from
the other sources.
in the sweating operation, various types of zinc containing
scrap are treated in either kettle or reverberatory
furnaces. The emissions vary with the feed material used
and the feed material varies from time-to-time and from
plant-to-plant. Emissions may vary from almost 0 to 15 Kg
of particulates per metric ton of zinc reclaimed. For
purposes of this report, it is assumed that the maximum
emission rate applies.
In the case of the various types of zinc distilling
furnaces, the accepted emission rate is 23 Kilograms per
metric ton of zinc processed. Some distillation units
produce zinc oxide, and normally utilize a baghouse for
collection of the product. This report assumes that these
baghouses are sufficient to meet national ambient standards.
However, for the purpose of calculating control costs, it
was assumed that essentially all of the estimated zinc oxide
capacity could be switched to slab zinc or dust production,
and emission controls would be required.
Controlled and uncontrolled emissions from secondary zinc
sweating operations cannot be estimated with an acceptable
degree of probable accuracy because reliable data are not
available.
The estimated emissions from secondary zinc distillation
based on available production estimates and an average
emission factor of 23 kg per metric ton are tabulated below.
2-175
-------
it is estimated that 57 percent of the emissions were
controlled in 1971 and that 90 percent will be controlled in
1980.
Control Technology and Costs. The major emission of concern
is participates, consisting mainly of zinc oxide. Baghouses
have been shown to be effective in controlling both
distillation and sweating-furnace emissions except when the
charge contains organic materials such as oils.
A complete accounting of secondary zinc plants by type of
furnaces used and the product or products produced is not
available. Based on the limited information, it is assumed
that the industry's 14 plants can be represented by two
models: two Model I plants, each consisting of 7,260 metric
tons per year sweating capacity and 10,900 metric tons per
year distilling capacity; and twelve Model II plants, each
consisting of 4,080 metric tons per year of sweating
capacity and 4,990 metric tons per year of distilling
capacity.
Estimated annualized control costs for the secondary zinc
industry are detailed in Table 3-27-1.
2-176
-------
Table 3-27-1.
Secondary Zinc Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL 1975 1980 1985
Capacity (1,OOO MT/Yr) 85.83 1OO.63 107.56
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 3.46%
N>
i Model Plant Sizes
!~J PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS (MT/Yr) Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
~-j
Sweating and Distilling 12.8OO; 5.50O Particulates Baghouse
EMISSIONS (MT/Yr) 1975 1980 1985 1971-85 1976-85
1971 Controls:
Partlculates 332.O 471.0 516.0
Legislated Controls:
PartlculateS 261.5 325.4 1O2.6
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment 0.28 0.14 0.03 2.52 1.32
Total Annual 0.56 0.98. 1.06 1O.45 9.19
Capital 0.16 0.31 0.33 3.15 2.78
O&M O.40 O.67 0.73 7.30 6.41
-------
ASBESTOS INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capabilities. The asbestos
industry consists of the following major activities: mining
of ore, milling of ore, and the manufacture of asbestos
products, all of which are used in thousands of products and
applications, over 40 percent of annual consumption, which
was estimated to be nearly 750,000 metric tons in 1972, is
used for construction materials, primarily cement products;
other important users include floor tiles, paper, asphalt
felts, friction products, and packing and gaskets. Domestic
consumption has been growing at an annual rate of about 5
percent.
Asbestos is normally handled by air conveyance during
processing. The air conveying system must be tightly
controlled because of the adverse health effects of airborne
fibers, which are Kept airborne for significant distances as
a result of their fine structure and low density. The
finishing processes that involve breaking, grinding or
polishing, which are required in making asbestos products,
account for most of the air emissions.
A total of nine milling plants were in operation during
1970. Over 98 percent of milling capacity (about 149,000
metric tons) was represented by five large, vertically-
integrated firms, imports represented nearly 85 percent of
the asbestos used in various manufacturing processes during
1973.
Manufacturing plants can be grouped into facilities
producing the following types of general product categories:
construction materials, floor tiles, felts and papers,
friction products, textiles, and miscellaneous.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Principal emission sources
of asbestos are from the air conveying systems used in the
processing and finishing stages required in making asbestos
products. Asbestos emissions can be divided into two
categories: either asbestos remains essentially a free fiber
throughout the process and in the final product or the
asbestos is wetted or bound into a matrix at an early stage
of processing.
Production of asbestos textiles is the major manufacturing
process in the first category, in this process, the long
asbestos fibers are fluffed and then blended with a
cellulosic fiber. The subsequent processing, which involves
carding, lapping, roving, spinning, and weaving or braiding,
is performed on equipment similar to the standard textile
2-178
-------
machining processes requiring frequent access when
operating.
virtually all other processes fall in the second category.
Significant emissions may occur in finishing operations for
cement pipe and building products, felts and papers, and
friction products. Asbestos emissions from floor-tile
manufacture are essentially nil after the fibers are mixed
with the hot vinyl or asphalt. In friction products, the
processes of molding and curing are usually pollution free,
while the finishing processes involving shaping, cutting,
and sawing may give rise to some emissions. In sprayed
insulation, asbestos emissions occur from handling the dry
asbestos and cement mixture, the escape of non-wetted fiber,
overspray and splash, and the disposal of wastes.
control Technology and Costs. The only acceptable control
technique for asbestos milling and manufacturing is the
fabric filter, or baghouse. Efficiencies of 95 percent or
higher are relatively easily obtained. This process was
assumed to be applied at all plants. Annualized control
costs and industry statistics are detailed in Table 3-28-1.
2-179
-------
Table 3-28-1.
Asbestos Industry Data Summary
to
h-«
00
o
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (1,OOOMT/Yr) 924.28 1,227.84
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 3.75%
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Textile
Mlscellaneous
Felt Friction
Tiles
Construction
M1111ng
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Yr)
608
189
2,721
6.893
3.592
29,024
EMISSIONS (LOOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Partlculates
Legislated Controls:
Partlculates
CONTROL COSTS (Mil 1 ion 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
53.09
25.04
4.6O
2.99
2.38
O.61
1980
71 .41
2.95
1 ..50
8. 18
3.85
4.33
1985
1.274.57
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Partlculates
Partlculates
Partlculates
Partlculates
Partlculates
Partlculates
1985
79.42
1.59
0. 1
8.91
4.03
4.88
1971-85
24.76
74.89
41.37
33.52
Baghouse
Baghouse
Baghouse
Baghouse
Baghouse
Baghouse
1976-85
1O. 17
67.84
35.95
31 .89
-------
ASPHALT CONCRETE PROCESSING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Asphalt concrete
includes a mixture of aggregates and an asphalt cement
binder. Aggregates usually consist of different
combinations of crushed stone, crushed slag, sand, and
gravel. Asphalt concrete plant processing equipment
includes raw-material apportioning equipment, raw-material
conveyors, a rotary dryer, hot-aggregate elevators, mixing
equipment, asphalt-binder storage, heating and transfer
equipment, and mineral-filler storage and transfer
equipment.
There are approximately 1,320 companies employing
approximately 300,000 to operate 4,800 asphalt concrete
plants in the United States. Plant size distribution is
listed below; 60 percent of the capacity is located in
plants having an average size of 182 metric tons per hour.
Based on a 1972 survey conducted by the National Asphalt
Pavement Association (NAPA) covering 1,081 plants, 76
percent were stationary plants and 24 percent were portable.
Continuous mixers comprised 24 percent of the portable
plants, compared with only 2 percent for stationary plants.
2-181
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Size Range Average Size No.
(metric tons/hr) (metric tonsAr) Plants Capacity(%)
82-100 91 694 6.6
101-263 182 3,122 59.5
264-282 273 520 14.9
283-499 391 464 19.0
Totals 4.800 100.0
Asphalt concrete production is essentially a batch-type
operation; continuous-mix represents only 10 percent of the
industry.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. The predominant emissions
are dust particulates from the aggregates used in making
asphalt concrete. The largest sources of particulate
emissions are the rotary dryer and screening, weighing, and
mixing equipment. Additional sources that may be
significant particulate emitters, if they are not properly
controlled, are the mineral-filler loading, transfer, and
storage equipment, and the loading, transfer, and storage
equipment that handles the dust collected by the emission
control system. Generally, the uncontrolled emissions from
asphalt batching plants amount to 23 kg of dust per metric
ton of product.
Control Technology and Costs. Practically all plants use
primary dust collection equipment, such as cyclones or
settling chambers. These chambers are often used as
classifiers with the collected aggregate being returned to
the hot-aggregate elevator to combine with the dryer
aggregate load.
The gases from the primary collector must be further cleaned
before venting to the atmosphere. The most common secondary
collector is expected to be the baghouse, although venturi
scrubbers are used in some plants. The baghouse allows dry
collection of dust which can be returned to the process or
dropped in a landfill. The venturi scrubber makes dust
hauling expensive due to the wetting of the dust. Also, the
use of large settling ponds and the possible need for water
treatment discourage the use of venturi scrubbers.
Annualized control costs and industry capacities are
detailed in Table 3-29-1.
2-182
-------
M
00
Table 3-29-1.
Asphalt Concrete Processing Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (MT/Hr) 1.118.71 1.O72.71
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 2.2O%
1985
1,115.88
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Type 1
Type 2
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Hr)
EMISSIONS (LOOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Partieulates
Legislated Controls:
Part iculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1OO,20O.30O,4OO
1975
3, 186.32
1,371.11
199.81
2O1.06
81.81
119.24
Pollutants Controlled
PartIculates
198O
3.71O.72
113.54
24.42
289.O5
103.89
185.16
1985
3.836. 16
46.86
2.21
3CO.62
1O8.O3
192.59
Control Technology
VentuM Scrubbers
Baghouse
1971-85
1976-85
664.19
3,211.O9
1.181.97
2,029.12
161.49
2,782.9O
1,O11.30
1.771.61
-------
CEMENT INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Portland cementt
which accounts for approximately 96 percent of cement
production in the United States, is processed from a blend
of various calcareous, argillaceous, and siliceous materials
including limestone, shell, chalk, clay, and shale. As the
binder in concrete, portland cement is the most widely-used
construction material in the United States. The four major
steps in producing portland cement are: quarrying and
crushing; blending, grinding, and drying; heating the
materials in a rotary kiln to liberate carbon dioxide,
causing incipient fusion; and fine-grinding of the resultant
clinker, with the addition of 4 to 6 percent gypsum.
Finished cement is shipped either in bulk or in bags. All
portland cement is produced by either a wet or dry grinding
process, the distinguishing characteristic being whether the
raw materials are introduced into the kiln as a wet slurry
or as a dry mixture.
in 1971, 170 plants producing portland cement clinker plus
five plants operating grinding mills to produce finished
cement were controlled by 51 companies located in 41 states
and Puerto Rico. Fifty percent of this cement industry
capacity is owned by multiplant companies, and the eight
leading companies account for about 47 percent of the total.
Overcapacity has resulted in low profit margins, inhibiting
modernization and construction of new plants during the past
several years, and more stringent air-pollution regulations
have increased both capital and operating costs. Recent
trends are toward increased operations through installation
of larger kilns to replace older marginal kilns, permitting
more economic and efficient pollution control. Cement
manufacturing plant capacity and size distribution are show,n
below.
2-184
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Total Annual*
Size Range Capacity
(metric NO. NO. (million Total
tons/day) Plants Kilns metric tons) Capacity*'
Less than 513 6 10 08 10
514-1025 49 98 12*. 3 15 ".8
1026-1538 65 170 27.0 34 6
1539-2051 28 95 16.5 21.1
2052-2564 11 37 8.7 11.2
2565 and up 11 56 12.6 16.'s
Totals 170 466 77.9 100.0
» Based on 334-day operation.
Size distribution is expected to shift upwards as new plants
are constructed and existing plants modified or closed, so
the total number of plants is expected to remain about the
same. It is also assumed that there will be no major shift
in production capacity percentages between dry and wet
grinding processes, with the latter presently estimated at
59 percent. Production is typically 75 percent of capacity.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Primary emission sources
are the dry-process blending and grinding, kiln operation,
clinker cooler, and finish grinding, other sources include
the feed and materials-handling systems. The primary air
pollutant is dust particulates. Estimated dust-emission
factor for an uncontrolled dry-process kiln is 180 kg per
metric ton of cement, compared with 130 kg per metric ton
for the wet-process plant, giving an average emission factor
of 151 kg per metric ton of product. The corresponding
emission factors for the blending, grinding, and drying
processes are 48 and 16 kg per metric ton, respectively, for
an average of 29 kg per metric ton.
Control Technology and Costs. Emissions from the blending,
grinding, and drying processes are generally controlled with
fabric filters. where ambient ^gas temperatures are
encountered during grinding, conveying, and packaging
processes, fabric filters are used almost exclusively. The
greatest problems are encountered with high-temperature gas
streams which contain appreciable moisture.
Both fabric filters and electrostatic precipitators are used
in controlling dust emissions from tlie kilns. The
condensation problems from the high-moisture content in the
2-185
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wet-process plant may be overcome by insulating the ductwork
and preheating the systems on start-up. current state
regulations may be met with either fabric filters or
electrostatic precipitators; however, new source performance
standards will require the filters. At least one plant has
a wet scrubber, but its costs were estimated on the basis of
an electrostatic precipitator with little error in total
estimated costs.
The total cost of control for portland cement plants was
found by estimating the costs for control devices for
grinding, mixing and drying (drying not included in the wet
processes) and kilns, which are the major sources of
pollutant. Kilns may have either baghouses for dry-process
kilns or electrostatic precipitators for wet-process kilns;
baghouses were assumed to have been used in both cases for
the combined grinding, mixing, and drying processes. Other
sources, including clinker coolers, packaging, and crushing,
are not costed due to prevailing industry control prior to
the 1970 Clean Air Act and/or minimal costs.
The capital cost of baghouses is assumed to be proportional
to the 0.91 power of capacity, while the capital cost of
electrostatic precipitators is proportional to the 0.67
power of capacity; in each case, the operating cost is
linearly proportional to the capacity. The cost of
baghouses for the grinding, mixing, 'and drying operations
was scaled in the same manner. However, the required size
was scaled by 0.78 (dry) and 0.26 (wet) to account for the
smaller airflow rates of these processes, and the absence of
control required for the wet-process raw material grinding
mills.
Annualized control costs are detailed in Table 3-30-1.
2-186
-------
00
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 3-3O-1.
Cement Industry Data Summary
1975
198O
Capacity (1,000 MT/Yr) 154,992 186.O8O
Annual Growth Rate Over Period 1976-85 = 3.08%
1985
199,377
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Dry Process Kilns
Wet Process Kilns
Dry Gravel Mix
Wet Gravel Mix
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
Part iculates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
OSM
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
1 16.7;254,6;437.5; Particulates
612.5:77O.O;933.3
13O;254.5;433,3:606.7; Part icu1ates
817.1;924.4
116.7;254.6;437.5; Particulates
612.5;77O.O;933.3
13O;254.5;433.3;606.7; Particulates
817.1;924.4
1975
5.235.45
2.139.7O
289.47
152.98
80.36
72.62
1980
1985
7,012.04 7,897.26
19.88
25.08
244.62
119.49
125.14
22.42
13.73
258.26
123.86
134.40
Fabric Filter
ESP
Fabric Filter
Fabric Fi1ter
1971-85
1976-85
990.18
2,651 .60
1,287.97
1 ,363.63
328.94
2,335.92
1.13O.48
1,205.45
-------
LIME INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. There are
currently 186 lime producing plants in the United States.
These plants can be divided into four size ranges, based
upon output capacity of metric tons per year; the number of
plants in each size range and their estimated capacities are
shown in Table 3-31-1,-
The U.S. lime industry can be conventionally divided into
two product sectors. Approximately 35 percent of the output
•is consumed by the producers, while the remaining 65 percent
is sold in the open market. Plants are located in 41 states
and Puerto Rico, with over 22 percent of U.S. capacity in
Ohio and the other major capacities located in Pennsylvania,
Texas, and Michigan; plant size distribution is shown in
Table 3-31-1. Recent trends are toward closing of small,
old plants and replacing old kilns with larger units.
Table 3-31-1.
Lime Industry Capacity Distributions
Size Range
(1,000 metric No. Estimated 1972 Capacity, Total
tons/year) Plants (million metric tons/year) Capacity(%>
0-22.7 68 0.6 3.2
22.7-90.9 61 3.0 16.2
90.9-364 52 10.5 56.8
More than 364 5 4.4 23.8
186 18.5 100.0
In 1972, producers at 186 plants sold or used 18.5 million
metric tons. Should the use of lime in processes for the
removal of sulfur oxides from combustion gases become
standard practice, the demand for lime will be increased
substantially. The number of plants, meanwhile, has
declined from 195 in 1970 to 186 in 1972. Further
consolidation may be expected to economically justify the
increased cost of emissions controls.
Lime is formed by expelling carbon dioxide from limestone or
dolomitic limestone by -high tempertures. This calcination
process forms quicklime. Hydrated lime is made by the
addition of water to the quicklime. The calcination of
dolomite results in dead-burned, (refractory) dolomite.
2-188
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Major uses of lime are for basic oxygen steel furnaces,
alkalies, water purification, other chemical processes, and
refractory dolomite.
About 73 percent of lime is produced in two basic types of
rotary kilns: the long rotary kiln, and the short rotary
kiln with external preheater. Vertical kilns are used to
supply 27 percent of lime. Almost all new lime production
is accomplished using the rotary process.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions from
lime manufacture are primarily particulates released when
crushing the limestone to kiln size, calcining the limestone
in a rotary or vertical kiln, and crushing the lime to size;
also, fly ash is released if coal is used in calcination.
Other emissions, such as sulfur oxides, may be generated by
fuel combustion.
Uncontrolled emissions from rotary kilns are about 100 kg
per metric ton of lime processed, compared with 4 kg per
metric ton from vertical kilns. However, economics favor
use of the rotary kiln, and virtually all new and expanded
production is expected to be accomplished by this method.
Control Technology and Costs. Gases leaving a rotary kiln
are usually passed through a dust-settling chamber where the
coarser material settles out. In many installations, a
first-stage, primary dry cyclone collector is used. The
removal efficiency at this stage can vary from 25 to 85
percent by weight of the dust being discharged from the
kiln.
The selection of a second stage to meet the high efficiency
level of 0.03 grains per actual cubic foot may be either a
high-energy wet scrubber, fabric filter, or electrostatic
precipitator. The higher capital cost of the electrostatic
precipitator may be more than offset in specific
installations by lower operating and maintenance costs.
It is believed that vertical kilns can be effectively
controlled to allowable emission limits with baghouses,
scrubbers, or cyclone/scrubber combinations. In the latter
cases, efficiencies of 99 percent have been reported.
Capital costs for fabric filters in existing plants were
assumed to be twice their cost in new plants. Capital costs
for wet scrubbers and electrostatic precipitators in
existing plants were assumed to be 50 percent greater than
in new plants. Annualized production and cost control data
is presented in Table 3-31-2.
2-189
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vo
o
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 3-31-2.
Lfrae Industry Data Summary
1975
198O
Capacity (Ml 111on MT/Yr) 21.60 26.74
Annua-1 Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 3,74%
1985
29. 13
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Type 1
Type 2
Type 3
EMISSIONS (LOGO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
Particulates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Size
{1,OOO MT/Yr)
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
1O;54
1O;54
1O;54
)
; 232; 686
; 232; 686
; 232; 686
1975
1 .059.34
461 .53
55.25
34.93
23.89
6.O4
Particulates
Particulates
Particulates
198O 1985
1,413.85 1,561.67
27.33 29.92
3.34 1.80
52.83 54.13
42.51 43. 4O
1O. 32 10.73
Fabric Filter
Scrubber
ESP
1971-85
33O.O1
586.42
474.83
111 .59
1976-85
11O.27
503.77
4O5.24
98.53
-------
STRUCTURAL CLAY PRODUCTS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are
currently 466 plants in the United States manufacturing
structural clay products, including common brick, fireclay
or refractory brick, and sewer pipe. The latter' category
represents approximately 90 percent of the total production
of structural clay materials, with common brick being by far
the largest category, or approximately 75 percent of total
production. value of shipments in 1972 were $404 million,
$143 million and $13 million for common brick, clay sewer-
pipe, and fireclay brick, respectively. Plants are located
in 45 states with North Carolina, south Carolina, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and Texas accounting for about 45 percent of
production capacity.
For purposes of estimating air abatement costs, the industry
was divided into those plants using either continuous tunnel
kilns or periodic kilns; an average plant capacity was
selected for each process, as shown below.
Est. 1974
Av. Cap. Cap.
(1,000 NO. (million Total
Mt/Yr) Plants Mt/Yr) Cap. (%)
Periodic kilns 21 336 6.9 35
Continuous
tunnel kilns 100 130 12.9 65
Totals 466 19.8 100
Miscellaneous clays and shales are used to manufacture
common brick, sewer pipe, and refractory brick. Typically,
the plants are located in the proximity of the clay mines.
The clays are crushed and ground at the plant, after which
they are screened and mixed with water for the forming
operation. Common-brick, sewer pipe and some refractory
brick are formed by extrusion; most refractory brick is
formed by die pressing.
The formed materials are fire-treated by either continuous
tunnel or intermittent periodic kiln processes, in the
continuous tunnel kiln, the charge is first preheated by
airflow escaping from the bake oven, passed through the oven
at temperatures of approximately 1,900°F, and then passed
2-191
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through a cooling stage, in contrast, the periodic kiln
heats the charge at ambient temperature to a peak
temperature, after which the fuel is shut off, allowing the
charge to cool to ambient temperature again; this cycle
requires about 2 weeks, during which fuel is burned about 50
percent of the time. The remainder of the period is used
for cooling and physical discharging of the product, steps
which emit little if any air pollutants.
A process frequently practiced by manufacturers of common
brick is flashing. This process involves firing the brick
in a reducing atmosphere to achieve architecturally-
desirable surface colorations. The process is noted because
when it is used in conjunction with periodic kilns, carbon
monoxide and/or hydrocarbon emissions usually result.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Atmospheric emissions from
the manufacture of clay construction products are primarily
sulfur dioxides released during the firing process, and
originating from the sulfur contained in the clay.
Uncontrolled sulfur dioxide emissions are estimated to be
about 0.37 metric ton per 100 metric tons of clay processed.
The flashing process associated with the manufacture of
certain types of brick can also result in- hydrocarbon and
carbon monoxide emissions. Approximately 0.42 metric ton of
hydrocarbons and/or carbon monoxide are estimated to be
released per 100 metric tons of brick flashed.
Table 3-32-1 summarizes estimated uncontrolled and
controlled emissions from the production of clay
construction materials.
Control Technology and Costs, it is anticipated that wet
scrubbers will be used to control sulfur dioxide emissions
from the production of clay contruction materials.
Presently, only a few plants were found to be exercising
this or any other control option. control of hydrocarbon
and carbon monoxide emissions can be accomplished by the use
of afterburners. The requirement for afterburners will
depend on the duration of the flashing treatment at
different plants. Likewise, it is probable that certain
plants will have minimal requirement for scrubbers because
of the negligible sulfur content of some clays. About 10
percent of existing plants producing common brick, sewer
pipe, and refractory brick were assumed to be either
equipped with adequate controls or using new clay materials
sufficiently low in sulfur content to avoid the need for wet
scrubbers.
Annual costs and industry operating statistics are detailed
in Table 3-32-1.
2-192
-------
Table 3-32-1.
Structural Clay Products Industry Data Summary
vo
u>
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity (Thousand MT/Oay)
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS (MT/Oay)
Tunnel Kiln
Periodic Kiln
300
20O
Periodic Kiln 20O
EMISSIONS (LOGO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Hydrocarbons
Sulfur Oxides
Legislated Controls:
Hydrocarbons
Sulfur Oxides
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
135.19
1976-85 «
ant Sizes
1S8O
155.73
1 . 07%
1985
155.88
Pollutants Controlled
Sulfur Oxides
Sulfur Oxides.
Hydrocarbons
Sulfur Oxides,
Hydrocarbons
1975
18.55
80.02
8.84
48.77
23.74
26.38
1O. 3O
16. .08
198O
14.49
102.59
0.37
22.83
O. 13
29.62
13. 06
16.56
1985
9. 14
1O5. 13
0.23
23. 03
0.68
25.25
13. 18
12.08
Control Technology
Wet Scrubber
Wet Scrubber
Thermal Incinerator
1971-85 1976-85
SO. 89 17.63
343.14 284. 3O
148.65 126.73
194.49 157.57
-------
SURFACE COATINGS INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. Air emission
abatement costs associated with the use of organic-based
surface coatings in four industries were considered:
automotive, furniture, major appliances, and metal or coil
coatings. These industries are considered together because
of the general similarities between the coating processes
employed, the nature of the resulting emissions, and the
abatement technologies deemed applicable.
In 1971, approximately 606 million liters of coatings, i.e.,
paint, shellac, lacquer, and primers, were consumed by these
industries. Since over 75 percent of the coatings used
contained about 50 percent organic solvents, significant
hydrocarbon emissions resulted during the application and
curing stages of the process. Future estimates of the
volume of hydrocarbon emissions attributable to surface
coating processes must be considered in light of the
following factors:
« Increased use of non-hydrocarbon solvent materials,
i.e., water-thinnable solutions.
• Application techniques involving solvent-free systems,
i.e., powder coatings applied by electrostatic
spraying.
Where applicable, these process alternatives would provide
as much as a 90 percent reduction in hydrocarbon emissions.
Faced with the alternative of conventional emission control
techniques (i.e., incineration) industries are expected to
adopt the newer coating formulations and application
techniques at an accelerated pace. By 1985, as much as 50
percent of the coating processes may employ non-hydrocarbon-
based materials.
The coating process consists basically of two steps:
application and curing. Both stages produce hydrocarbon
emissions through evaporation. The coating is generally
applied by a spray gun in a paint spray booth, and the
surface is then cured or dried in a drying oven where the
solvent is evaporated. A summary of industry production is
presented in Table 3-33-1.
2-194
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Table 3-33-1.
Surface Coatings industry
Distribution (1971)
Automobile
Furniture
Metal Coil
Coating
Major Appliance
Totals
NO. of
Plants
100
7,000*
56
144
Coating
Consumption
(million
liters)
246
189.5
95
76
606.5
percent
of Coating
Consumption
41
31
16
12
100
ilO percent of furniture manufacturers account for 65
percent of sales ($).
Automotive Finishing, in 1971, there were 100 motor
vehicle (auto, truck, and bus) assembly plants located in 28
states throughout the United States. Included in this group
are: motor vehicles and car bodies, truck and bus bodies,
motor vehicle parts and accessories, truck trailers, and
travel trailers and campers. Approximately 246 million
liters of coatings were consumed in finishing operations,
which is about 41 percent of the total volume of coatings
used by the four industries under consideration.
Furniture Finishing. About 7,000 establishments are
engaged in manufacturing the following types of furniture in
the United States:
• Wood Household Furniture
• Wood Furniture - Upholstered
* Metal Household Furniture
• Wood Cabinetry
• Household Furniture - Unclassified
• Wood Office Furniture
• Metal Office Furniture
• Public Building Furniture
* Furniture and Fixtures - unclassified.
Approximately 10 percent of the establishments account for
65 percent of industry sales, with the 10 largest producers
representing nearly 20 percent of industry sales. Furniture
2-195
-------
is,manufactured in all but seven states, and North Carolina,
the principal producer, accounts for 22 percent of the total
shipment value.
About 190 million liters of organic solvent-based coatings
were consumed by the industry in 1971. Between 1967 and
1972 paint consumption has grown about 5 percent annually,
Unlike the metal surfaces coatings,, the use of water-based
paints and finishes for wood furniture is limited in
practice because of the tendency for the occurrence of
surface distortions in the wood. Virtually all coatings
used, therefore, are hydrocarbon-based and range from 30 to
70 percent by weight in organic content.
Coil Coating. The coil coating process consists primarily
of the pretreatment of sheet metal in the strip or coil
form, followed by the application of an organic coating and
subsequent curing (or baking) to obtain the desired surface
characteristics. It is estimated that 56 plants in the
United States are engaged in this coating process. Almost
60 percent of the plants are located in Pennsylvania, Ohio,
and Illinois, presumably near sources of steel production.
In 1971, approximately 95 million liters of coatings were
consumed by coil coating processes, representing an annual
increase of 14 percent since 1964 when about 38 million
liters were consumed.
Major Appliances. In 1971, there were 144 plants in the
United States engaged in the production of major appliances
including: cooking equipment, refrigerators and freezers,
and laundry equipment- about 76 million liters of coatings
were consumed in this production effort. Growth in industry
consumption of coatings averaged 4 percent annually between
1964 and 1971.
Emissions and Sources of Pollutants. While paint spray
booths are a source of hydrocarbon emission, the volume of
solvent released to the air through evaporation is dependent
on the degree of overspray, which can vary anywhere from 10
to 90 percent. Aerosols resulting from overspray are
usually removed by filters or water scrubbers, but these
devices have little impact on removal of emissions due to
solvent evaporation. The major source of emissions
attributable to coating processes are the drying ovens.
Control Technology and Costs. Incineration of the solvent
vapors in the exhaust gases from the spray booths and the
drying ovens is presently the most practicable technique for
limiting hydrocarbon emissions from surface coating
2-196
-------
operations. Control costs are primarily a function of the
exhaust gas volume.
Incineration essentially involves oxidation of hydrocarbons
in the exhaust gases to form carbon dioxide and water.
Several alternative techniques are available, including
flame combustion, thermal combustion, and catalytic
combustion. Presently, technical considerations favor the
use of thermal incinerators. However, as continuing fuel
shortages prevail and prices rise, catalytic units will
probably become more economical in the future. To offset
the impact of current fuel shortages/ thermal incinerators
with heat exchange units were considered to be most
applicable for all but the furniture category where little
curing is employed. The heat exchanger extracts waste heat
from the hot exhaust gases, enabling reuse and operating
economy.
A summary of estimated investment and annual operating costs
per model plant are provided in Table 3-33-2.
2-197
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to
I
V0
00
Table 3-33-2.
Surface Coating Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (Million Liters/Day) 1.32 2.17
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 6.38%
1985
2.42
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Application and Curing
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
Hydrocarbons
1971 Controls:
Auto
Major Appliance
Furni ture
Metal Coil
Legislated Controls:
Auto
Major Appliance
Furniture
Metal Coll
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(Liters/Day)
Pollutants Controlled
Control Technology
2,274;9,854
175,477
; Hydrocarbons
1975
147.
49
148
60.
13O.
43.
67.
58.
9.
193.
48.
145,
. 19
.53
,09
.09
.06
.98
69
.75
58
37
30
O7
198O
212
82
243
81
177
66
23
68
8
385
78
3O6
.09
.93
.73
.34
.23
.52
.37
.42
.57
.65
.85
.81
Vapor
1985 1971-85
246.
1O3.
273.
9O.
9.
3.
26.
3.
5.
425.
83.
342.
O4
78
OO
.83
.26
.87
33
43
48 514.46
76 4, 098,47
.71 87O.16
03 3,228.31
Inci nerat ior
1976-f
217.72
3,633 .OS
742. 17
2,890.89
-------
STEAM ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS
Operating Characteristics. Among the largest stationary
sources of air pollution are the coal, oil, and natural gas
burners. Of the three fuels, coal is the most polluting and
natural gas is the cleanest and most convenient to use. The
principal uses for these fuels include furnace operation in
steam electric power plants, steam generation and heating in
the industrial sector, and space heating in the commercial
and residential sectors. In 1976, 87 percent of the steam
coal (in contrast to coking coal) produced was used for
power generation. About 63 percent of all residual fuel oil
consumed and 18 percent of natural gas produced was used for
the same purpose. It is apparent from these estimates that
utility power burners are the major sources of emission for
the pollutants of concern, because they burn the most
polluting fuels in the largest quantities.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. In the near future, energy
resources that will be consumed in large amounts are the
nuclear fuels with their radioactive-waste-disposal
requirements, and the fossil fuels with their residue
disposal and gaseous emission-control requirements. Among
the fossil fuels, natural gas is the cleanest, but it is in
short supply. To demonstrate the cleanliness of gas
relative to coal and oil, the emissions resulting from the
use of each fuel in a typical uncontrolled 1,OOO megawatt
power plant are given below.
Emissions (kilograms per hour)
Fuel Particulates S02 NOsc
Coal 69,000 41,000 13,OOO
Oil 600 12,500 8,60O
Gas 170 7 6,80O
Natural gas is the preferred fuel from an emissions
standpoint. Gas-fired power plants provided 16 percent of
electricity produced in 1975, and gas provided about one-
fifth of all the heating energy derived from fossil fuels.
The production of gas in the near future is expected to
remain fairly constant, and the growing fossil fuel demand
will be supplied by coal and oil.
Despite current shortages in the United States, petroleum is
still an abundant fuel internationally. For mobile sources,
2-199
-------
its derivatives/ gasoline and diesel oil, are not expected
to be supplanted in the near future. For utility power
burners, despite the potential switch from oil to coal in
many power plants, distillate and residual fuel oil will
continue to supply a significant fraction of the energy
required in 1980. Fuel oils for utility burners contain
sulfur (typical sulfur contents average about 0.7 percent
for United States crude oils and about 2.2 percent for
imported crude oils), much of which is removed from the
final product. The ash from residual oil combustion is low,
about 0.5 percent.
The supply of crude oil and its derivatives in the United
States is becoming increasingly critical as a result of
limited reserves of domestic sources and increasing
international demand for this versatile fuel. Furthermore,
oil is in greater demand for producing electrical power in
areas where foreign oil was, and probably will continue to
be, more accessible.
The most abundant fossil fuel in this country is coal, in
1975, about 405 million tons of coal were burned to produce
about half of the electrical power. In 1975, 70 million
tons were used for heating, 83 million tons were used to
produce coke for use in industrial processes, and 64 million
tons were exported. The resources of coal are widespread
throughout the united States, but coal has not been used in
proportion to its availability in comparison with the other
fuels.
Coal typically has an ash content of 9 percent, of which
(under uncontrolled conditions) about 85 percent would be
emitted from a dry-bottom boiler, and 65 percent from a wet-
botton boiler. The resulting emissions would be orders of
magnitude higher than those from the other fossil fuels.
Particulate controls of varying efficiencies are found on
all but the smallest coal burners.
Sulfur dioxide emissions from coal burning are even more
serious and more difficult to control. In 1975, the sulfur
content of coal burned by utilities, averaged 2.2 percent;
this sulfur appears as sulfur dioxide and some sulfur
trioxide. To reduce the sulfur oxides, a coal of low-sulfur
content could be chosen. However, much of the Eastern low-
sulfur coal is reserved for use as coke by the metals
industries. In only a small percentage of current coal
production is the sulfur content low enough to meet New
Source Performance Standards. The major western low-sulfur
coals will be used primarily in the West and Central
Regions.
2-200
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Use of coal to supply most electric power in the near future
seems unavoidable. Therefore, more stringent emission
controls will be needed. In addition to switching to low-
sulfur coal, other strategies are possible, such as removal
of sulfur from flue gases, and removal of sulfur from high
sulfur fuels before burning.
The uncontrolled and controlled emissions from utility
fossil-fuel burners may be estimated from known (measured)
emission factors, for the first case, and from the
capability of the various control techniques in the second.
Control Technologies and Costs. The following paragraphs
analyze the different technologies presently employed to
control sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, particulates, and
the related costs.
Sulfur Oxides. The state-of-the-art of flue gas
desulfurization (FGD) is such that the so-called throwaway
scrubbing systems (lime and limestone) will predominate
through 1980. By 1980, roughly 45 percent of all capacity
with sulfur oxide controls will be using limestone
scrubbing, while 30 percent will use lime scrubbing. The
balance (about 25 percent) will be divided equally between
lime/limestone and "other" control methods, including the
use of regenerative systems. On this basis, the capital and
operating costs used for FGD through 1980 will be the
weighted average of lime and limestone costs. The capital,
operating, and annual costs of FGD systems are as follows:
New Plants Existing Plants
investment ($Aw) 51 72
O&M (millsAw hr) 1.2 2.0
Annual (millsAw hr) 3.0 4.0
For these plants, it was assumed that the cumulative
generating capacity controlled by this technique in 1971t
1972, 1975, and 1980 will be 0, 1,000, 7,000, and 33,000
megawatts, respectively. Recent . estimates show a more
accelerated application of flue gas desulfurization
technology. (See EPA Draft Report, "The Economic Impact of
EPA's Air and water Regulations on the Electric utility
Industry", November 1975.) Investment costs for each period
were simply computed by multiplying the dollars per kilowatt
by the net generating capacity for which FGD systems were
installed in that period.
2-201
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Operating and maintenance costs (and in general time-
dependent costs) for a given period were computed using an
operating rate of 55 percent and the cost in mils per
kilowatt hour. The time, in years, that a certain annual
increment controlled generating capacity contributes to the
time period under consideration as well as the magnitude of
the increment will determine its contribution to the total
cost in that period. The sum of the products of incremental
megawatt capacity and number of years contributed was used
to compute the O&M as well as annual and depreciation (10-
year) costs.
The same procedure was used to compute the costs of FGD for
existing plants. An operating rate of 70 percent was
assumed for these plants.
it is projected that a significant number of Central and
Eastern utilities, usually burning high-sulfur coal, will
switch to burning western and much less significantly,
Eastern low-sulfur coal. It is estimated that cumulative
generating capacities of 880 trillion, 1,540 trillion and
1,650 trillion Btu's per year will switch from high-to low-
sulfur coal in 1975, 1977, and 1980, respectively. western
low-sulfur coal will be transported over long distances, and
this will double or triple the cost of the coal. Some
modifications in converting the power plant to low-sulfur
coal are necessary; these changes are related to such items
as increased capacity of coal pulverization equipment
necessary to handle the higher tonnages and derating of the
power plant owing to the lower heating value of Western low-
sulfur coals.
In the period 1975-80, two other sulfur oxide methods of
abatement will be employed in coal burners. These will
involve the increased use of physically-cleaned coal and the
blending of low-sulfur coal with high-sulfur coal, in some
instances, low-sulfur coal will be burned exclusively during
episodes of adverse meteorological conditions.
The approach used here was to use FEA's base case scenario
for the total utilization of oil and gas. Thus, the
projected energy scenario outlined in Table 3-34-1, with a
modification to represent the expected switch of some
existing oil burning plants back to coal:
2-202
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Table 3-34-1.
Energy Consumption by Oil and Gas Burners
(In Trillion Btu/Year)
Fuel
1970
1975
198O
Distillate Oil
(0.3%S) 140
Fuel Oil <1%S) 1,100
Fuel Oil <1-2%S) 390
Fuel Oil (2+%S) 450
Natural Gas 4,000
Coal Switch 0
240 482 389 706
1,942 2,471 3,137 4,067
'682 412 1,098 676
785 285 1,304 470
3,274 3,274 2,948 2,948
113 113 985 985
The differential fuel costs resulting from the utilization
of Western and Eastern low-sulfur coal are given below.
0/Million Btu
Cost of high sulfur coal
Cost of low-sulfur coal as burned
Cost of boiler modifications (as
explained above)
Differential fuel cost due to CAA
western,
Chicago
47
60
3
16
Eastern,
Cleveland
37
73
3
39
It is not known at this time what percentage of the low-
sulfur coal usage will be western and what the price will be
to burn it. However, most of the coal usage will be
Western, and the differential price of 16 cents per trillion
Btu will be used as explained above. The unit costs of
physically cleaning and blending coal (transportation and
storage mainly) are $4.5 and $0.25 per ton, respectively.
Fuel oil burning utilities will in some cases be required to
switch to low-sulfur fuel oil. The costs of the various
grades with respect to sulfur content are given below.
2-203
-------
% Sulfur 0 per Million Btu
Distillate 0.3 90
Fuel Oil 1.0 82
Fuel Oil 1-2 71
Fuel Oil 2 65
For the conversion of Eastern utilities to low-sulfur coal,
only quantities involved between 1975 and 1980 were
considered. Taking 1975 as the baseline year (zero
conversion) the post-1975 conversion data was used. The
levels are 40 million and 77 million tons per year in the
periods 1976-77 and 1978-80, respectively. In the period
1975 to 1980, this will amount to a total of 272 million
tons. The cost at 16 cents per million Btu will come to a
total of $800 million in the period under consideration.
Physical coal cleaning and blending in the period 1975 to
1980 will involve 65 and 182.5 million tons in the
respective categories. The respective costs will be $292
million and $46 million.
In oil-burning utilities, the differential fuel costs
resulting from switching to low-sulfur fuel oils and
distillates has been estimated by integrating the
differentials between the baseline case and that projected
for the years 1975 through 1980 in Table 3-34-1.
Nitrogen oxides. These pollutants will be controlled by
applying staged combustion and off-stoichiometric firing.
The unit costs for a 500 megawatt plant burning coal, oil,
and gas were used in assessing the total cost of control.
It was assumed that emissions of nitrogen oxides will be
abated by the above technique starting in July 1975. while
it is recognized that this may not necessarily take place,
the costs obtained by this assumption will represent an
upper limit for the period 1975-80. Variances and
exemptions issued in Air Quality Control Regions (AQCR)
where the ambient levels of this pollutant are not critical
will of course lower the overall costs of control.
The above-mentioned control technique applies only to dry
bottom boilers; wet bottom boilers are not amenable to this
abatement technique. Consequently, if total control is
desired, massive conversion of the estimated 17 percent of
the coal steam-electric generating capacity with wet bottom
boilers will have to be converted to the dry bottom type.
2-204
-------
Berkau's unit cost data were used, wherein a 500 megawatt
model plant was assumed; the investment costs were as
follows:
Fuel $ per kw
New Existing*
Oil/Gas 0.56 0.75
Coal 2.75 3.04
*Costs for new plants multiplied by a retrofit difficulty
factor of 1.35. Operation and maintenance and total annual
costs were assumed to be 2 and 18 percent of investment per
year; depreciation was assumed to be 14 percent per year.
It appears that only AQCR's 24 and 67, whose boundaries
encompass the cities of Los Angeles and Chicago,
respectively, will restrict nitrogen.oxide emissions from
utility burners. In Los Angeles, the 1975 total oil and gas
fired capacity to be controlled amounts to 11,770 megawatts
of coal, oil, and gas burning facilities. An additional
2,000 megawatts of coal burning capacity is estimated to be
on-stream by 1978. Estimates of control costs in these two
AQCR's were made and added to the national estimates.
Control of Particulates in Coal Burners. It is estimated
that about 75 percent of all coal-burning power plants
existing in 1970 had particulate removal equipment of about
90 percent efficiency. However, it should be noted at this
point that it is difficult to substantiate this because of a
lack of data. Stringent local (city and state) regulations
initiated the expansion of serious efforts to control
particulates in the late 1960's and early 1970's. The
assumption has been made that a gradual upgrading of
particulate control devices to-99.9 percent efficiency or
better will taXe place.
All generating capacity in operation before 1975 is
considered to be controlled by electrostatic precipitators,
and existing capacity for which FGD systems will be
installed before and after 1975 will not require additional
particulate control capability. New generating capacity
coming into operation after 1975 and for which FGD will be
applied will require a particulate control level up to 95
percent using electrostatic precipitators; this is roughly
half the investment required for control up to 99.5 percent.
2-205
-------
Generating capacity existing in 1971 together with that
coming on line between 1971 and 1975 (after FGD capacity is
subtracted) will have capacity efficiency upgraded to 99.9
percent by electrostatic precipitators. Increments to the
1975 capacity {after taking out all FGD) will be controlled
to 99.9 percent efficiency by electrostatic precipitators
and wet venturi scrubbing; the breakdown will be 90 and 10
percent, respectively. The breakdown in capacity to be
controlled as explained above is shown in Table 3-34-2.
Table 3-34-2.
Control of Particulates 1971 to 1980
(Trillion Btu Coal Burning Capacity)
Year
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
FGDi FGD2
Existing New
Remaining Capacity3
99.9 Percent 99.9 Percent
ESP venturi Scrubbing
0
48.2
79.5
154
337
761
1,340
1,410
1,490 1
1,590 1
0
0
0
0
0
221
552
748
,060
,410
7,800*
8,350
9,000
9,700
10,500
10,680
10,760
11,460
12,080
12,670
No particulate controls necessary.
to time of installation of FGD.
0
0
0
0
0
20
10
100
100
100
variances granted up
2 Control to 95 percent before FGD system.
3 Calculated by difference assuming on operating rate of 55
and 70 percent of existing and new plants with FGD
installed. A heat rate of 0.01 trillion Btu per kw hr was
also assumed.
1971 capacity will require only half
upgrading from 95 to 99.9 percent.
the investment in
Unit Costs of Particulate Control. The following costs
were used for 99.5 percent particulate control units:
2-206
-------
ESP
Venturi Scrubbing
Investment ($ per kw) 20.0*
O&M ($ per kw-yr) 0.35
30.0*
2.6
:* Applying applicable inflation factors result in
investments of 43 and 46 in 1975$ for ESP and Venturi
Scrubbing, respectively.
Capacity existing in 1971 will be gradually (1971 to 1975)
upgraded from 90 to 99.9 percent. This implies that half
the investment will be required and time-dependent charges
(O&M and annual) will carry for only 2 years instead of 4
years.
The most recent anlaysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Agency by Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc.
(TBS)1. This analysis was conducted in somewhat greater
depth than, and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure, and is considered to be more precise. However,
time and resource constraints prevented incorporating these
costs into the scenario analyses using the SEAS model
procedure. The TBS estimates are as follows (in million
1975 dollars):
Incremental Investment
O&M in 1985
(1975-1985) 20,000
2,700
The TBS study results are listed below (in billion 1975
dollars):
1975-1980 1975-1985
Flue Gas Desulfurization
Eastern Medium Sulfur coal
Western Low Sulfur Coal
Equipment Modifications
Precipitators
Washing and Blending
Other Precipitators
TOTAL
9.3
0.9
0.6
2.0
0.2
0.6
13.6
12.8
0.9
1.3
4.2
0.2
0.6
20.0
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below with projected pollutant discharges associated with
2-207
-------
SEAS lists 5.8 billion associated with flue gas
desulfurization in 1975-1985, and 4.5 billion during the
period 1975-1980. As can be noted, this is approximately
half of the later, revised TBS calculations. The forecasts
for electrostatic precipitators capital expenditures in SEAS
are 3.0 billion for 1975-1985 and 2.5 billion for 1975-1980.
SEAS assumed all costs associated with fuel-switching were
O&M, as opposed to capital investment required by the
standard regulations. Much of the difference between the
two studies is due to assumptions about capacity covered by
the regulations and interpretation of costs associated with
the implementation of the standards.
"The Economic impact of EPA's Air and WAter Regulations
on the Electric Utilities Industries", Temple, Barker &
Sloane, Inc., November, 1975.
2-208
-------
Table 3-34-3.
Steam-Electric Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (Mega Megawatts) O.73
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85
1 . 12
11.89%
I
N>
§
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Coal
Oi 1
EMISSIONS (1.0OO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Part1culates
Ni trogen Oxides
Sulfur Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Other Gases & Mists
Pollutants Controlled
Partlculates
Nitrogen Oxides
Sulfur Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Other Gases & Mists
PartIculates
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Sulfur Oxide
1975
29.446.74
198O
38,565,97
1985
1 .26
Control Technology
Venturi Scrubbers;ESP
Burner Modification
Flue Gas Desulfurization
None Appl1 cable
None Applicable
None Applicable
None Applicable
Burner Modification
None Applicable
None Applicable
None Applicable
1985
41 .544 ..68
1971-85
1976-85
4,542.52
6,024.67
18,551 .79
79.46
248 . O8
0.22
6. 144.O4
7,963.90
24,018.66
1 1O. 92
328. 15
O.3O
6,673.94
8,905.93
25,474.75
126.62
363. 1 1
O.33
-------
Table 3-34-3.
Steam-Electric Industry Data Summary
to
to
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Legislated Controls:
PartIculates
Nitrogen Oxides
Sulfur Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Other Gases & Mists
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
1975
19
2
e
11
,819
, 14O
,244
,415
83
261
0
960
977
322
654
.85
.07
.42
.50
.62
.56
.23
.38
.OO
.50
.50
16
8
7
2
1
1
198O
,415,
5O9
,315
,O30
123
356
0
645
,691
, 121
,570
.40
.91
.29
.79
.81
.93
.32
.89
.36
.02
.34
19
9
7
2
1
1
1985
, 147 .
579.
,992.
,994
143.
424.
O.
187.
,7O2
,361
,34O
81
41
,42
.84
92
16
,35
.68
,66
.90
.76
1O.353. 11
26,630. 16
11 ,384.22
15,245.93
7,9O5.69
24.537.80
1O,730.12
13,807.68
-------
SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL
Solid waste disposal contributes to air pollution from
incineration and open burning methods. Air pollutants
emitted to the atmosphere from such practices include
particulates, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, fluorocarbons, hydrochoric acid, and odors. The
levels of pollutants emitted are primarily dependent on the
input or the material being burned; incinerator levels are
also dependent on the specific incinerator design and upon
the specific methods of operation. Particulate emissions
are the highest concentrations, making them the specific
pollutant subject to controls. There are no current Federal
regulations for odors, hydrochloric acid, and fluorocarbons.
The solid waste disposal methods that are discussed in the
following paragraphs were in use in 1971 in the proportions
shown below:
Disposal Method Solid waste Disposed (%)
Municipal incinerators 5.3
On-Site incinerators
(Commercial and Industrial) 8.3
Open Burning and Open Dumps 22.2
Other Methods 64.2
Total Disposed wastes 100.0
MUNICIPAL INCINERATORS
Operating Characteristics and capacities. Basically, there
are two types of municipal incinerators: the refractory-
lined furnace type, the most common in this country, and the
water-wall or waste-heat recovery type, more common in
Europe. The water-wall units offer the advantage of steair.
generation, and as a consequence of heat recovered during
steam generation, flue-gas temperatures are lower than the
refractory-lined units. incinerators with lower gas
temperatures have smaller volumes of flue gases to control,
and thus require smaller, less-costly air-pollution control
equipment. In addition, with the low temperatures from heat
recovery, incinerators can utilize control equipment that
could not survive the higher temperature flue gases from the
refractory-lined furnaces.
2-211
-------
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Municipal incinerators
contribute to air pollution by releasing a variety of
pollutants to the atmosphere that include particulates,
hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, fluorocarbons, nitrogen oxides
and carbon monoxides. The levels of these pollutant
emissions are directly related to the design and operation
of the incinerator, but more importantly to the input
charge. Of these pollutants, normally only the particulates
are considered to be emitted in concentrations that are high
enough to warrant controls.
Control Technology and Costs. Both high-efficiency wet
scrubbers and electrostatic precipitators are capable of
collection efficiencies to meet emission regulations of 91
grams per 45.4 Kilograms of refuse charged. Annualized
control costs and industry statistics are detailed in Table
3-35-1.
ON-SITE INCINERATORS (COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL)
operating Characteristics and Capabilities. In 1972, there
were approximately 100,000 on-site incinerators in use in
this country. These intermediate-sized units are usually
associated with office buildings, large retail stores and
apartment buildings. Of the over 23 million metric tons of
solid waste incinerated annually in the united States, more
than one-third is processed by on-site units that typically
process about 90 tons annually, or approximately 104
kilograms per hour. States bordering the Great Lakes
(Minnesota, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana,
New York, and Pennsylvania) account for about 60 percent of
the total number of on-site units in the United States.
There are two types of commercial building and industrial
incinerators: single-chamber and multiple-chamber. Single-
chamber incinerators are similar to residential or domestic
units and consist of a refractory-lined chamber with a grate
on which the refuse is burned. Combustion products are
formed by contact between under-fire air and waste on the
grate. Additional air (over-fire air) is admitted above the
burning waste to promote complete combustion. Multiple-
chamber incinerators employ a second chamber to which
combustion gases from the primary chamber are directed for
further oxidation of combustible gases. Auxiliary burners
are sometimes employed in the second chamber to increase the
combustion temperature.
it is estimated that the use of apartment incinerators,
which account for about 6 percent of installations for
refuse disposal, will become virtually extinct during the
2-212
-------
1976-85 period. The number of industrial and commercial
units should remain stable during that decade because new
installations will primarily be replacements of older units.
Approximatly 88 percent of all on-site incinerators are the
multiple-chamber type; emissions from multiple-chamber
incinerators are generally lower than the single-chamber
incinerators. The design capacity of the incinerator in
this report is from 23 kilograms per hour to 1,816 Kilograms
per hour, and the average incinerator operates between 3-5
hours a day.
Emission Sources and Pollutants, while on-site units emit
various products of combustion, only particulates (fly ash)
are released in sufficient quantities to warrant
installation of controls. Approximate emission factors for
single-chamber and multiple-chamber incinerators of
intermediate size are respectively 7.5 and 3.5 Kilograms per
metric ton of refuse charged.
Control Technology and Costs. Operating conditions (e.g.,
air supply to the combustion chamber), refuse composition,
and basic incinerator design have a pronounced effect on the
volume and composition of air emissions. Afterburners and
wet scrubbers can be installed to control particulate
emissions and some other combustion products. However, with
the shortage of natural gas and the expense of fuel oil, the
use of afterburners as retrofit controls on building
incinerators will probably be curtailed. Furthermore, the
newer multiple-chamber units already employ auxiliary firing
techniques which in effect fulfills the function of an
afterburner.
Wet scrubbers will achieve an approximate 80 percent
reduction in particulates emissions. This level of control
is sufficient to meet Federal particulate emission standards
of 2 Kilograms per metric ton of refuse charged.
Annualized control costs and performance statistics are
detailed in Table 3-35-1.
OPEN BURNING AND OPEN DUMPS
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Open burning refers to the
indiscriminate and unconfined burning of wastes, such'as
leaves, landscape refuse, and other rubbish. Open dump
burning refers to unconfined burning of refuse at municipal
dumps. Emissions from open dumps reflect the composition of
the refuse as well as the volume of such items as paper,
2-213
-------
plastics, garbage, etc. The primary emissions from open
burning are participates, smoke, and products of combustion.
Control Technology and Costs. There is no control technology
that can be applied to open burning, and the only suitable
alternatives for emissions control are the use of municipal
incinerators for disposal and the use of sanitary landfills.
It was assumed that all on-site open burning and the
resultant wastes would be diverted to sanitary landfills.
Annualized costs and process characteristics are detailed in
Table 3-35-1.
2-214
-------
N>
I
N>
Table 3-35-1.
Solid Waste Disposal Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL 1975
Capacity
Municipal Incln. (MT/Day) 44.49
Open Burning (MT/Day) 159.3O
On-Slte Incln. (MT/Yr) _ 793.86
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85:
Municipal Incineration = 2.16%
Open Burning = 3.66%
On-S1te Incineration - O.52%
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Municipal Incinerators
Open Burning
On-S1te Incineration
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Partlculates
Legislated Controls:
Partlculates
198O
52.00
2O6.62
856.57
1985
51.89
217.34
787.44
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
3OO
10O,300,50O,70O.
900.150O
10O,30O,50O,7OO,
90O.15OO
1975
148.78
88.43
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Partlculates
Partlculates
Partlculates
ESP and Wet Scrubber
Landfill (Close or Remote)
Landfill (Close) or Wet
Scrubber
198O
183.52
58.06
1985
183.44
57.6O
1971-85
1976-85
-------
Table 3-35-1. (Continued)
Solid Waste Disposal Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) 1975 1980 1985 1971-85 1976-85
I Investment 133.O9 42.72 3.29 1,948.33 634.68
N>
(-•
ox Municipal Incinerators 0 3.98 O 162.24 93.65
Open Burning 57.43 28.85 3.29 1,288.66 233.SO
On-Site Incineration 75.66 9.89 O 497.43 3O7.43
Total Annual 446.16 721.01 733.15 7,705.35 6,7OO.41
Capital 189.09 274.7O 279.18 3.O46.92 2,602.15
Municipal Incinerators 9.36 21.77 22.13 223.63 198.21
Open Burning 123.93 147.71 151.35 1,757.43 1.43O.53
On-Site Incineration 55.7O 105.22 1O5.7O 1.O65.86 9-73.35
O&M 257.O7 446.31 453.97 4,658.43 4.O98.26
Municipal Incinerators 24.88 41.4O 41.31 458.11 397.39
Open Burning 171.24 3O2.57 318.57 3,125.32 2,763.58
On-Site Incineration 6O.95 1O2.34 94.O9 1,075.OO 937.29
-------
SEWAGE SLUDGE INCINERATION INDUSTRY
Operating Characteristics and Capacities. Incineration is
one of several methods currently practiced for the disposal
of sludges accumulated by the municipal sewage treatment
plants. There are four types of sewage sludge incinerators:
• Multiple-hearth
• Fluidized bed
• Flash drying
• Cyclonic-type.
The majority of existing installations are the multiple-
hearth type. The capacity distribution of sewage sludge
incinerators in 1968 is shown below:
Number of
Installations
51
103
27
7
Capacity
Range,
Metric
TPDi (dry
solids)
0.27- 9.1
9.2 - 45.3
45.4 - 90.7
90.8 -272.0
Capacity
Metric
TPD (dry
solids)
270
2,132
1,705
1,214
Average
Cap.
Metric
Total TPD(dry
Capacity{%) solids)
27.13
54.79
14.36
3.72
5.3
20.7
63.4
173.4
188 5,321 100.00
TPD is the abbreviation for tons per day.
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Particulate emissions from
uncontrolled sewage-sludge incinerators range from.32 grains
per DSCM (dry standard cubic meter) for multiple-hearth
type, and 282 gr per DSCM for fluidized-bed type
incinerators. Particulate emissions from existing
facilities contrplled by wet scrubbers range from 0.35 to
2.12 gr per DSCM, with an average value of 1.45 gr per DSCM.
New source performance standards proposed by EPA limit the
particulate emissions at no more than 1.09 gr per DSCM.
Control Technology and Costs. All sewage sludge incinerators
in the United States are equipped with wet scrubbers that
have varying collection efficiency. The scrubbers range
from low-energy types, with pressure drops in the range of
2-217
-------
2.5 to 6 inches of water, to high-energy scrubbers with a
pressure drop of 18 inches of water.
Control estimates of particulate emissions from sewage
sludge incinerators were based on the following assumptions:
1. Incinerator operating schedules are 3,640 hours per
year for installations with capacities in the range of
0.3 to 45 metric tons per day, and 8,736 hours per year
for installations with capacities in the range of 45.1
to 272 metric tons per day.
2. The majority of the existing installations are
controlling particulate emissions to about 90 percent,
or 1.5 kg per metric ton.
3. To meet State implementation Plans, existing facilities
were to be upgraded by 1975 to control particulate
emissions to no more than 2 kg per metric ton. New
facilities will be controlled to an emission level of
no more than 0.8 kg per metric ton.
Table 3-36-1 details the investment, annual costs, and total
cash requirements for the industry along with operating
statistics.
2-218
-------
to
to
(-»
vo
Table 3-36-1.
Sewage Sludge Incineration Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (MT/Day) 14.26O 25,293
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 8.16%
1985
33,899
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Incineration
EMISSIONS (LOCO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
PartIculates
Legislated Controls:
Participates .
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Plant Sizes
(MT/Day)
Pollutants Controlled
5. 28; 21 ; 63;
178
1975
38
19
)i
13
15
1O
5
.58
.58
.22
.74
.09
.65
Part
198O
68
11
6
36.
21 .
14.
.94
.27
. 1O
.05
,54
51
iculates
1985
92.36
1O. 78
5.93
44.O2
24.68
19.34
Control Technology
Wet Scrubbers
1971-85
1976-85
186.3O
382.O2
228.60
153.42
111.40
346.16
2O4.3O
141.86
These costs are not Included In the municipal water pollution control cost estimates
m Section Three.
-------
GRAIN HANDLING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Traditionally,
grain handling is considered in terms of series of grain
storage facilities starting from the delivery by the farmer
and ending with the ultimate user. These grain storage
facilities or grain elevators, provide storage space and
serve as collection, transfer, drying, and cleaning points.
There are two main classifications of grain elevators—
country and terminal elevators. Country elevators receive
grains from nearby farms by truck for storage or shipment to
terminal elevators or processors. Terminal elevators (this
category is subdivided into inland and port terminals), are
generally larger than country elevators and are located at
significant transportation or trade centers. Inland
terminals receive, store, handle, and load these grains in
rail cars or barges for shipment to processors or port
locations. Port terminals receive grain and load ships for
export to foreign countries. It has been noted that
particulate emission is a function of both the amount of
grain handled and the operations involved in handling.. The
cost of equipment for emission control is a function of the
size of the facility and operations involved. Consequently,
model sizes for the types of operations and size of country
elevators, inland terminals and port terminals have be.en
selected, ranging from 0 to 70 thousand kiloliters (dry
measure), 70 to 700 thousand kiloliters, and 0.7 to 7
million kiloliters. it should be noted that very few
country elevators fall within the second range, while s.ome
inland terminal elevators may fall within the first capacity
range.
Using data for the number and storage capacities of the
country and terminal elevators by states as of September 30
1972, size ranges and number of facilities per size range
are estimated in Table 3-37-1.
2-220
-------
Table 3-37-1.
Grain Handling Industry
Facilities Production Capacities
Ranges
(thousand
kl/yr)
0-70
70-700
700-7,000
Total
volume
Handled
(million Total NO. of
kl/yr) volume(%) Facilities
217
70.9
103
55.5
18.1
26.4
7,147
413
64
Average
volume
(thousand
Kl/yr)
30.4
171.6
1.615
Totals
390.9 100.0
7,624
Emission Sources and Pollutants. Grain handling includes a
variety of operations which emit differing amounts of air
pollutants, primarily particulates. The particulates
consist of attrition of the grain kernels and dirt. Hence,
the amount of the dust (particulates) emitted during the
various grain handling operations depends on the type of
grain being handled, the quality or grade of the grain, the
moisture content of the grain, the speed of the belt
conveyors used to transport the grain, and the extent and
the efficiency of dust-collecting system being used, such as
hoods and sheds.
Control Technology and Costs. Systems used to control
particulate emissions from grain handling operations consist
of either extensive hooding and aspiration systems leading
to a dust collector or methods for eliminating emissions at
the source. Techniques which eliminate the sources of dust
emissions or which retain it in the process are enclosed
conveyors, covers on bins, tanks and hoppers, and
maintenance of the system's internal pressure below the
external pressure so that airflow is directed in rather than
out of the openings.
Control methods are also available to capture and collect
the dust entrained or suspended in the air. The dust
collection systems generally used are cyclones and fabric
filters.
in order to meet the emission standards, it is assumed that
(except for grain drying) fabric filters will be installed
2-221
-------
in all existing plants that do not have them or as
replacements for cyclones and other control devices.
Table 3-37-2 shows the future estimated sales of grains and
the volume of grain handled by the two types of elevators.
2-222
-------
to
to
Table 3-37-2.
Grain Handling Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
1980
Capacity (1OS Liters/Yr) 497.13 562.73
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 2.82%
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Grain Elevator
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Particulates
Legislated Controls:
Particulates
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capital
O&M
Model Faci1ity Size
(1O' Liters/Yr)
1985
641.79
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
35:21O; 1.75O
1975
1 .024.48
423.55
)
7O1 .06
187.42
167.39
20- O3
1980
1 , 192.54
24.53
87. OS
329.79
292 . 09
37. 7O
Part 1 culates
1985
1.353.32
27.89
51 .40
362.89
326.04
36.85
Baghouse
1971-85 1976-
2.978.52 1.205.35
3,666.63 3,316.75
3,269.14 2,962.16
397.49 354.58
-------
DRY CLEANING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are
basically two types of dry cleaning installations,- those
using synthetic solvents, such as perchlorethylene, and
those using petroleum solvents, such as Stoddard. The trend
in dry cleaning operations today is toward smaller-packaged
installations located in shopping centers and surburban
districts. These installations use synthetic solvents while
the older, larger commercial plants still use the petroleum
solvents. It is estimated that approximately 55 percent of
dry-cleaning is accomplished by synthetic solvents, with the
remaining 45 percent accomplished by petroleum solvents.
NOW that the small, older petroleum solvent plant is being
replaced by synthetic plants, it is estimated that 80
percent of the dry-cleaning in 1980 will be accomplished
using synthetic solvents. The larger, commercial plants
using petroleum solvents will comprise only 20 percent of
the market.
Emissions Sources and Pollutants. Older synthetic solvent
plants, which are using separate vessels for cleaning and
drying, emit about 105 kg of hydrocarbons per metric ton of
textiles. The modern synthetic solvent plants combine the
cleaning and drying operation utilizing one vessel, a
tumbler that is equipped with a condenser for vapor solvent
recovery. Emissions from the single-vessel unit average
about 47 kg per metric ton of textiles. Plants utilizing
activated-carbon absorption systems for further vapor
recovery can reduce the emissions to 38 kg per metric ton
for the older plants, and about 25 kg per metric ton for the
modern plants. These emissions can be reduced further (by
30 to 50 percent) by well-maintained equipment and good
operating procedures by personnel.
Emissions from petroleum-solvent plants can be as high as
154 kg of solvent per metric ton of textiles. Although
there are adsorption units commercially available for
petroleum-solvent machines, none have been installed to
date. However, it is estimated that these adsorption units
are capable of recovering as much as 95 percent of the
evaporated petroleum solvents.
Control Technology and Costs. The dry cleaning industry
contributes to air pollution by the release of organic-
solvent vapors to the atmosphere. The amount of solvent
emitted to the atmosphere from any one dry cleaning plant is
dependent upon the equipment design solvent used, the length
of certain operations in the cleaning process, the
precautions used by the operating personnel, and the
quantity of clothes cleaned. The most important of these
2-224
-------
items are the precautions used and the weight of the clothes
cleaned. Because of the higher capital investment required
for emission controls on petroleum-solvent plants, it is
believed that all new plants will use synthetic solvents,
and that 50 percent of the petroleum-naptha solvent plants
will shut down or convert to synthetic solvent operations by
1980, Futhermore, increasing solvent costs will provide an
incentive for better evaporative emission control.
Annualized control costs and industry operating statistics
are detailed in Table 3-38-1.
2-225
-------
to
M
N>
Table 3-38-1.
Dry Cleaning Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
Capacity (Million MT/Yr) 1.29 1.74
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = 4.94%
1985
2.05
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Synthetic Solvents
Petroleum Solvents
Switch from Petroleum to
Synthetic
Model Plant Size
(MT/Yr)
57
1O6
1O6
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Hydrocarbons
Legislated Controls:
Hydrocarbons
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Total Annual
Capi tal
O&M
1975
161.47
96.09
49.48
2O.32
2O. 32
O
Pollutants Controlled Control Technology
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons
198O 1985
187. 13
74.65
6.01
31 . 13
31 . 13
0
184.49
92.42
2.32
33.44
33.44
0
Carbon Absorber
Carbon Absorber
Process Switch
1971-85 1976-85
242.65
346.39
346.39
O
8O.44
3O2.74
3O2.74
O
-------
INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HEATING
Operating Characteristics and Capacities. The majority of
commerical and industrial heating is accomplished by hot
water and steam boilers. Although hot air furnaces are
utilized for space heating, these units are fired on gas or
distillate oil and they generally do not contribute
significantly regional air pollution.
Commercial equipment normally is defined as having a
capacity in the range of 0.05 to 2.11 million kg cal per
hour. Industrial equipment normally is defined as equipment
having a capacity in the range 2.11 to 169 million kg cal
per hour. These ranges are loosely defined and in practice
they often overlap,- the equipment size distribution by
location and fuel type is not available.
The estimated 1974 installed capacity of commercial and
industrial boilers is 10 x 1015 kg cal per year based upon a
1967 inventory and assumed growth rates of 4.5 percent per
year for commercial units and 4 percent per year for
industrial units.
Emission sources and Pollutants. Pollutants emitted by
fossil-fuel combustion are a function of fuel composition,
efficiency of combustion, and the specific combustion
equipment being used. Particulate levels are related to the
ash content of the fuel, and sulfur oxides levels are
related to the sulfur content of the fuel. Emissions of
nitrogen oxides result not only from the high-temperature
reaction of atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen in the
combustion zone, but also from partial combustion of the
nitrogenous compounds contained in the fuel; thus, levels
are dependent both on combustion equipment design and upon
fuel nitrogen. Carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, and
particulate levels are dependent on the efficiency of
combustion as it is affected by combustion equipment design
and operation. Accordingly, natural gas and distillate oil
are considered clean fuels because of their low ash and
sulfur contents, and also because they are relatively easy
to burn. In contrast, coal (and some residual oils) contain
significant amounts of sulfur and ash, require more
sophisticated combustion equipment, and are more difficult
to burn than the clean fuels.
The estimated uncontrolled emission factors and average
emission factors, as required by the State Implementation
Plans (SIP) for commercial and industrial boilers, are
listed below and they are based on the following assumptions
and conditions:
2-227
-------
e The sulfur contents of; coal/ residual oil, and
distillate oil are assumed to be 3, 2, and 0.2 percent
by weight, respectively.
» The ash content of coal is assumed to be 12 percent by
weight.
« The difference in particulate emissions factors between
commercial and industrial coal-burning installations
probably is related to differences in equipment design.
In the following tabulation of emissions factors, the
factors within parenthesis indicate those required or
allowed by SIP where applicable:
Emission Factors (kg per million kg cal)
Commercial Particulates Sulfur Oxides
Coal 1.8 8.6
(1.08) (5.8)
Residual Oil 0.29 4.0
(1.08) (2.0)
Distillate Oil 0.18 0.36
(1.08) (0.43)
Gas 0.032 0.0011
(1.08)
industrial
Coal 11.7 8.6
(0.63) (5.7)
Residual Oil 0.29 4.0
(0.63) (2.0)
Distillate Oil 0.18 0.36
(0.63) (0.43)
Gas 0.031 0.0011
(0.63)
Control Technology and Costs. It is apparent that equipment
fired with gas and distillate oil essentially meets all of
2-228
-------
the air pollution regulations. The most cost-effective
control technology has been switching from coal and high-
sulfur residual oil to the less-polluting fuels. The
current shortages and projected price rises for natural gas
and distillate oils, and the proposed ban on switching to
these fuels will require implementation of other control
technologies in many cases.
Estimates of control costs are based on the assumption that
for commercial boilers, fuel switching from coal and high-
sulfur residual oil to low-sulfur residual oil is
attainable, and that for industrial boilers, fuel switching
from high-sulfur residual oil to low-sulfur residual oil is
attainable. Alternative control technologies for coal-fired
industrial boilers include dual alkaline scrubbers for
sulfur oxides and particulates control. For the coal-fired
boilers, flue gas treatment appears plausible for the larger
units, while fuel switching appears realistic for the
smaller ones. However, because no boiler size distribution
was available at this time, all industrial coal-fired
boilers were assumed to be using flue gas treatment as a
control technology; this assumption will overstate the
control costs.
Because of the present instability and future uncertainty of
fuel prices, no attempt was made to account for the cost
differential among fuels. On a Btu or heating value basis,
there could be little difference in costs. Although it
appears that the cost of coal and high-sulfur residual oil
would be lower than the cost of the clean fuels prior to
firing in a boiler, the higher costs of handling the coal
and high-sulfur residual oil, as well as the higher
equipment maintenance costs, are judged to offset any price
differential. The net effect of these considerations would
produce virtually equivalent fuel costs on a consistent
basis.
The .estimated control costs for the model heating plants are
given in Table 3-39-1. Investments and annualized costs are
considerably lower for commercial than industrial
installations because of the relative ease of fuel switching
compared to the use of sophisticated flue-gas cleanup
systems.
2-229
-------
Table 3-39-1.
Industrial & Commercial Heating Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1975
198O
1985
Capacity (MT/Hr)
Industrial 301,637 386.962 455,758
Commercial 13O.471 141,737 171,532
AnnuaJ Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-85 = Industrial 5.O5%
Commercial 4.4O%
PROCESS CHARACTERISTICS
Industrial
Commercial
Model Plant Sizes
N/A
N>
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Combustion of Coal:
Part iculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Combustion of Oil:
Part i culates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Combustion of Natural Gas:
Part iculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
1975
Pollutants Generated
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
198O
1985
2
3
3
, 192
,644
7O9
44
113
3O2
.767
835
42
56
78.
3
858
21
94
. 12
.91
.71
.54
.78
.47
.63
. 15
.01
.07
.02
.39
.69
.78
.68
3.O2O
4,977
979
59
151
398
4,975
1 ,O97
55
73
1 17.
4 .
1 .01 1 .
27,
1 14 ,
.69
.24
.03
. 1O
.46
.56
.44
.84
. 17
.74
.77
.06
.36
.33
.27
3,753
5,898
1 , 158
71
18O
46O
5,8O8
1,276
64
85
129
4
1 ,099
31
126
.83
,31
-O8
.09
.32
. 1O
.50
. 14
.76
.75
.89
.47
.42
.06
.45
Control Technology
ESP & FGD
Fuel Switching
1971-85
1976-85
-------
Table 3-39-1. (Continued)
Industrial & Commercial Heating Industry Data Summary
to
EMISSIONS (1.OOO MT/Vr)
Combustion of Distilled Oil:
Partloulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Legislated Controls:
Combustion of Coal:
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Combustion of 011:
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Combustion of Natural Gas:
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Combustion of Distilled Oil:
Part iculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
1975
198O
1985
58. SO
117. OO
233.84
12.28
16.38
1,O2O. 85
2,837.62
736.38
45.72
116.38
314. 11
3,938.61
8O4 . 4O
43.48
58. 03
101 .21
3.51
893.65
22.44
98. 16
58. 9O
1 1 7 . SO
241.49
12.37
16.49
83. SO
167. O1
342.37
17.54
23.38
242.39
1 ,755.62
1.O15.52
61 .37
154.91
4O9 . 79
5, 184.42
91 1 .87
56. 5O
75.38
121 .06
4. 18
1,043.56
27.87
117.37
83. 2O
166. 4O
341. 13
17.47
23. 3O
1O2.7O
205 . 4 1
421. O9
21 .57
28.76
288. O6
1 ,972.63
1 . 186.65
72.29
182.97
477 . 92
6.O68. 11
1.055.23
64.99
86.78
132.55
4.57
1 , 125.72
31 .47
128.92
1O2.42
2O4 . 84
419.92
21 .51
28.67
-------
N>
N>
U>
to
Table 3-39-1. (Continued)
Industrial & Commercial Heating Industry Data Summary
EMISSIONS (1,000 MT/Yr)
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Industrial
Commercial
Total Annual
Capital
Industr ial
Commercial
O&M
Industr ial
Commercial
1975
198O
1985
1 ,737
722
1 ,71O,
1 ,O33,
796
237
S77
269
4O7
.97
.31
.83
.31
. 19
. 12
.52
.79
.73
2
1
1
1
153.
350,
,94O.
,768.
,39O.
378.
,172.
5O5.
666.
55
60
86
67
25
.42
. 19
29
9O
141 .
83.
3 , 269 .
1,896.
1,455.
441
1 ,372
565,
8O6,
,O4
.00
.45
.69
.48
.21
.76
.87
.89
1 1
3
32
19
14
4
13
5
7
,O12.
,756.
,O77.
,O73.
,924.
, 148
,OO3
.446
,556
19
.23
.26
.51
.53
.98
.75
.88
.87
6,
1 ,
28,
16,
13,
3,
1 1 ,
4,
6,
537 .22
737.49
259.99
762. OO
124 .39
637 .61
497.99
85O. 12
647 .87
-------
Chapter 4
Mobile Source Pollution Control
1. MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION CONTROLS
Introduction
Mobile sources are recognized as significant contributors to
national air-quality problems. In areas subject to
photochemical smog formation, over half the reactants can
generally be attributed to motor-vehicle emissions.
Similarly, motor-vehicle emissions frequently cause large
concentrations of carbon monoxide in high-traffic-density
urban areas during traffic peaks. In cities with large and
busy commercial airports, aircraft operations are often the
source of high levels of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons,
nitrogen oxides, and particulates in the vicinity of the
runways and terminals.
Passenger cars and light-duty trucks have been highly
significant and visible pollutant sources because of the
large numbers in service. Consequently, they have been
under Federal controls since the 1968 models. Federal
controls on heavy-duty motor vehicles engines have been in
effect since 1970, and controls on aircraft emissions went
into effect in 1974.
Other mobile sources, such as railroad locomotives, marine
engines, and farm, construction, and garden equipment, have
been under study by EPA, but to date, no regulations for
these sources have been promulgated or proposed. Motorcycle
emissions control regulations become effective in 1978, but
cost factors were not developed soon enough to be included
in this report.
Review of Recent Factors
Affecting Mobile Sources
The oil crisis of late 1973 and early 1974 resulted in a
trend toward smaller cars and increased gasoline prices. It
also resulted in increased emphasis on fuel economy, which
has affected the present and future emission control
strategies.
The recession of late 1974 resulted i* a drastic reduction
in new-car sales for the last half of 1974-, which continued
into 1975.
2-233
-------
The Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of
1974i/ passed by Congress on June 22, 1974, included a
provision which delayed the scheduled 1976 and 1977 emission
standards. With less stringent emission standards for these
2 years, the cost and fuel consumption penalties will be
less than estimated in the last cost of Clean Air Report.
The changes in light- and heavy-duty truck regulations call
for trucks in these two classes to meet more stringent
emissions standards. The light truck class has been
enlarged to include all trucks under 8,500 pounds gross
vehicle weight. (The prior definition applied to trucks
under 6,000 pounds.)
As provided for in the 1970 Clean Air Act and Amendments,
the auto companies filed requests for suspension of the 1977
emission standards early in January of 1975. The decision
was made to grant the request for suspension of the 1977
hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emission standards, and to
establish interim standards for the 1977 model year at the
level of the current 1975-76 hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
standards. The 1977 legislated nitrogen oxide standard of
2.0 grams per mile (g./mile) was not affected.
The 1977 amendments to the Clean Air Act call for
maintaining 1977 standards through the 1979 model year. The
CO standards are 7.0 in 1980 and 3.4 for 1981-85. NOx is
set at 1.0 for 1980-85, and HC at 0.41 for the same period.
Light-Duty vehicle Controls
EMISSION STANDARDS
Since 1968, the Federal Government has regulated the output
of air pollutants from the exhaust of new light-duty motor
vehicles. Emission standards are expressed in terms of
maximum levels of gaseous emissions per mile permitted from
the vehicle while operating on a prescribed duty cycle.
Sampling procedures and test equipment are also prescribed
by the regulations.
Both emission levels and test procedures have been revised
periodically in several steps of increasing stringency.
Changes in the Federal Test Procedure were implemented for
the 1972 and 1975 model years. Changes in emission levels
were prescribed by the Environmental Protection Agency (or
its predecessors) for 1970 and 1973 (nitrogen oxides), and
2-234
-------
were based largely on evolving technology for emission
control.
The 1970 Amendments to the Clean Air Act called for the
Administrator to prescribe Federal emission standards for
1975 and later year models effecting a 90 percent reduction
in the hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions from 1970
levels, and to prescribe the Federal standards for 1976 and
later year models effecting a 90 percent reduction in
nitrogen oxide emissions from 1971 levels. The 1970
Amendments further gave the Administrator the authority to
grant a 1-year suspension of the 1975 and 1976 standards
under specified conditions if it could be established that
effective control technology was not available for
compliance.
After extensive hearings in March 1973, the Administrator
found that, although the necessary technology existed to
meet the 1975 standards through the use of catalytic
converters, there was a high degree of uncertainty
concerning the industry's ability to certify and produce
catalyst-equipped cars in 1975 in large enough numbers to
meet production requirements for their full model line. in
addition, in-use reliability of the catalysts had not been
established. Because of this, it was found that the risk of
introducing catalysts on all vehicles in 1975 outweighed the
risk to human health if the standards were delayed. The
suspension was applied in two parts:
« National 1975 interim standards were established which
were more strict than standards previously in force,
but which were not anticipated to necessarily require
catalysts on the majority of vehicles sold.
• More stringent standards were allowed for vehicles sold
only in California, which would require catalysts on
cars sold in that state. Under the California waiver
provision in the Clean Air Act, the state was permitted
to establish its own hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide
standards. A Federal standard that is more stringent
than that applicable to cars sold elsewhere was
prescribed for carbon monoxide.
The 1975 statutory standards as originally established were
to be applicable to all cars sold in the United States in
1976.
Similarly, the Administrator suspended the statutory NOx
standards for 1976 and later models, on July 31, 1973. This
decision was based on the belief that technological success
in meeting the 1976 statutory standards could not be
2-235
-------
reasonably predicted. In applying this suspension, the
Administrator established an interim nitrogen oxide Federal
standard of 2.0 g./mile, which is attainable with existing
advanced emission-control technology.
Finally, the aforementioned Energy Supply and Environmental
Coordination Act of 1974 and the 1977 amendments to the
Clean Air Act further delayed the light duty passenger car
requirements, as shown in Table 1-1.
2-236
-------
Table 1-1.
Federal Exhaust Emission Standards and Control
Levels for Light-Duty Vehicles' by Model Year
Under 6,OOO-lb Gross Vehicle Weight
N>
to
w
Type of
Vehicle
Pre-19688 197O 1973/1974 1975/1976 1977/1979 198O/19853
HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx HC CO NOx
Light-duty
gasoline
passenger car 8.7 87 4.0 4.1 34
Light-duty
dlesel
passenger car
Light-duty
gasoll$e
truck
Light-duty
diesel
truck
Emissions expressed in grams per mile
3.O 28 3.1 1.5 15 3.1 1.5 15 2.O O.41 3.4' 1.O1
1.5 15 3.1 1.5 15 2.O O.41 3.4 1.O
3-O 28 3.1 2.0 2O 3.1 2.O 20 3.1 2.O" 2O* 3.1
2.O 2O 3.1 2.O 2O 3.1 2.O* 20 3.1
1 Emission levels as measured on the 1975 FTP.
' Estimated levels before controls.
1 1980 standards for CO are 7.O, and for NOx are 2.0
* Standards assumed are those used for determining cost of compliance in
this report. Actually promulgated standards for 1979 and later model
years are HC = 1.7, CO = 18, NOx = 2.3 grams per mile.
-------
PASSENGER CARS
Control Devices/ 1968-1974 Model Years. From 1968 to 1974,
compliance with Federal emission standards was achieved by
utilizing various combinations of the followings
• Purging of crankcase fumes through the engine
• Recalibration and tighter precision of carburetor fuel
metering
• Engine intake air preheat and temperature control
• Spark retard at idle and low speeds
• Reduced compression ratios and elimination of
combustion chamber pockets
• Air injection into the exhaust manifold
• Changes in valve timing and recirculation of exhaust
gases
• Capture of fuel evaporative emissions in charcoal
canisters or in the crankcase.
Table 1-2 summarizes the EPA and HAS estimates for
incremental cost increases per car due to emission control
requirement for the period 1968 to 1974. These data, taken
from the 1974 Cost of Clean Air Report f are expressed in
current dollars.
Estimates of the aggregate initial-equipment or engine
modification costs per car for emission control through 1974
(expressed in December 1974 dollars) are $100 (EPA) and $84
(NAS). industry estimates for that same period are $50-$120
(expressed in December 1974 dollars).
2-238
-------
Table 1-2.
Estimated Passenger Car Emission-
Control Equipment Cost, 1968-74
Model List Price1
Year item EPAZ
1968-69 Positive crankcase ventilation $ 0.40 $ 2.85
(PCV) valve
Inlet air temperature control 5.00 3.80
Cumulative cost through 1969 $ 5.40 $ 6.65
1970-72 Fuel evaporation control system 13.50 14.30
Idle control solenoid 11.10 4.75
Carburetor changes 3.00 0.95
Hardened valves and seats (for 2.00 1.90
unleaded gasoline)
Transmission control system — 3.80
ignition timing — 0.95
Choke heat bypass — 4.18
Compression ratio changes — 1.90
Cumulative costs through 1972 $35.00 $39.38
1973-74 Exhaust gas recirculation 26.00 9.50
(EGR), 11-14 percent
Speed controlled spark timing 26.00 0.95
Precision cams, bores, pistons — 3.80
Transmission changes — 0.95
Cumulative costs through 1974 $87.00 $54.53
i List price includes both dealer and manufacturers
profits, expressed in current dollars.
2 From Reference 7.
3 From Reference 8.
2-239
-------
Control Devices, 1975-1976 Model Years. When the 1975
Statutory Standards were suspended for 1 year* and replaced
with less stringent interim standards, it became apparent
that two types of emission-control systems could be used for
the 1975 model year. These were: (1) oxidation catalyst-
equipped systems, and 12) advanced engine modifications
systems. The oxidation catalyst systems have been preferred
by the industry, and approximately 85 percent of the 1975
model year sales included catalysts. Other changes and
additions for some 1975 model-year cars included:
• Quick-heat manifold
o High-energy ignition
• Advanced carburetors
• Air injection.
Since the 1976 emission standards*"* called for the same
hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide levels as
the 1975 interim standards, only minor changes in emission
control systems were made from 1975 models. Proportional
exhaust gas recirculation was introduced in some models.
Estimates of the initial equipment or engine modification
costs per car for emission control for the 1975 and 1976
model years are $200 (EPA estimate in 1975 dollars), $159
(NAS), and $100-$450 (Industry).
Control Devices, 1977 Model Year, with the suspension of
1977 emission standards on March 5, 1975, and the setting of
interim standards for hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide at the
1975-76 levels, and nitrogen oxide at a level of 2.0 g./mile
(which is 35 percent lower than the 1975-76 level), the
automobile companies met the 1977 standards with only minor
modifications to engines and control devices. These
modifications took the form of increased use of secondary
air for catalyst operation, improved exhaust gas recir-
culation, ignition timing modification, or modified
catalysts with decreased use of secondary air. EPA has
estimated the incremental cost to meet 1977 emission
standards at $15.
Control Devices, 1978 and 1979 Model Years. Since Congress
has passed Clean Air Act Amendments calling for maintenance
of 1977 emission levels through the 1979 model years,
cumulative control costs per vehicle are maintained at the
1977 level for their cost analyses. This results in
significant cost reduction over previous 1978 standards at
the expense of increased emissions to the environment.
2-240
-------
In addition to the modifications applied earlier, standards
would require application of a three-way (HC, CO, NOx)
catalyst, plus electronic control modules for the following
items: spark control, exhaust gas recirculation, air-to-
fuel ratio, and air injection. Costs for these
modifications would vary with size of vehicles, engine
design, engine calibration, etc. EPA's estimate of 1980
incremental costs for an "average" vehicle is $220 for 3.4
g/mi. CO or $163 for a 9 g/mi. CO standard (1974 dollars).
Summary of Estimated Emission Control Equipment Costs. Table
1-3 summaries the various estimates for incremental cost
increases per car due to emission control requirements for
the period 1968 to 1985; data in this table were obtained
primarily from Reference 11.
Table 1-3.
Estimated Passenger Car Emission-Control
Equipment Costs, 1968-1980 Model Years
List Price* (December 1974 Dollars}
Model Year EPA^ MAS* Industry*
Cumulative costs 100 84 50-120
through 1974«
1975/76 incremental 100 75 50-330
costs
1977 incremental 15
costs
1978 incremental 0 145 215-500
costs
1980 incremental
costs 220
Cumulative costs 435* 304 315-950
through 1985
i List price includes dealer and factory profits.
2 From data submitted by the domestic manufacturers.
s Data obtained primarily from Reference 11.
* Restated from Table 1-2 in 1974 dollars.
s $456 in 1975 dollars.
2-241
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Estimated Maintenance Costs Due to Emission Controls. The
additional per vehicle maintenance costs attributable to
emission-control devices has been estimated by EPA to be $16
per year from model years 1968 through 1974. For the 1975,
1976, and 1977 model years, there are certain benefits in
reduced maintenance cost derived from the use of high-energy
ignition systems, long-life exhaust systems, and unleaded
fuel. For the 1975-77 model years, the annual maintenance
cost benefits are estimated to be $23 per catalyst-equipped
car over 1974 cars; thus, the net maintenance cost over the
pre-controlled cars is a $7 benefit.
Additional maintenance costs are anticipated for the 1980
and later model years because of the greater complexity
expected in the emission control systems required to meet
the lower hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide standards. This
increase over 1975 cars is estimated to be $8 per car,
resulting in a net annual maintenance cost of $1 per car, or
about the same as pre-controlled cars.
Annual maintenance cost penalties for the various model
years are shown in Table 1-4. The estimated costs for 1975
through 1977 are based on assuming that 85 percent of
vehicles sold in the United States in 1975 were catalyst-
equipped, 80 percent in 1976, and 75 percent in 1977.
Recent data show that use of catalysts in 1976 and 1977
remained at the 85 per cent level.
2-242
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Table 1-4.
Estimated Incremental Maintenance Costs
for Passenger Car Emission Control Systems,
1968-1980 Model Years
Annual Incremental Maintenance Net
Model Year Cost increase (Decrease) per vehicle* costs
1968-74 $16 $16
1975-79 (23)2 (?)
1980-81 73 Q
1982-85 0 0
i Additional cost over normal maintenance due to emission
control. 1968-74, current dollars- 1975-80, December
1974 dollars.
2 Assuming oxidation catalysts used all five model years,
and based on 1975 interim standards (1.5 HC, 15 CO, 3.1
NOX).
3 Assuming dual catalysts (oxidation plus reduction)
to be used, and based on HC, CO, and
NOx levels of 0.41, 3.4, and 1.0. One catalyst change
in 10 years assumed.
FUEL-CONSUMPTION PENALTIES
The average fuel economy of motor vehicles decreased
gradually from the 1968 through the 1974 model cars. This
change can be attributed to variations in vehicle weight,
engine size, optional equipment, and the effects of
emission-control equipment. in particular, the specific
emission-control measures that adversely affect fu^l
consumption are retarded ignition timing, reduced
compression ratio, and exhaust-gas recirculation.
Fuel economy penalties for the 1968 to 1973 model years wece
obtained from an EPA study of passenger car fuel economy
involving tests of nearly 4,000 vehicles ranging from 1957
production models to 1975 prototypes. The fuel economy for
1973 model cars decreased over pre-1968 cars by about 10.1
percent. For 1974 models, fuel economy decreased 10.4
percent from the pre-1968 baseline, based upon estimates
2-243
-------
from 1974 certification data and" 1974 sales data for the
first 6 months. A shift toward, lighter cars was observed in
the first 6 months sales, but the trend was reversed for the
remainder of the year.
Various industry sources as well as the EPA have indicated
that catalytic systems on most 1975 vehicles resulted in
fuel economy superior to 1973 and 1974 model-year cars. The
EPA-measured fuel economy data for 1975 certification
vehicles, when weighted for the estimated vehicle sales,
resulted in a gain of 12.2 percent over 1974 models, or a
slight fuel economy benefit over pre-1968 baseline data of
approximately 1.0-2.0 percent.
An additional fuel economy improvement was shown in the 1976
model year, resulting in an estimated fuel economy gain of
about 12.8 percent over pre-1968 cars. No change in fuel
economy is anticipated for the 1977 model year (when the NOx
standard drops from 3.1 to 2.0 g./mile) due to the expected
extensive use of proportional exhaust gas recirculation
(PEGR) and other technological improvements.
It is assumed that by adopting optimal-fuel strategies for
the 1980 model year that a fuel economy improvement of about
two percent will occur due to improved combustion
conditions.
No additional fuel economy gains or penalties are estimated
for model years 1980 through 1985 due to emission controls.
in separate efforts to improve' fuel economy, the auto
companies are reducing the size and weight of vehicles in
their existing model line, improving engine efficiency,
changing axle ratios, and introducing new lighter, smaller
models. These projects will raise the average fuel economy
of all affected models, regardless of the potential effect
of pollution controls. The principal impetus for these
developments is the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (P.L.
94-163) passed and signed in December 1975 that required all
manufacturers to meet fuel economy standards (on the
average) of 18, 19 and 20 miles per gallon for their 1978,
1979, and 1980 models, respectively. The effect of emission
controls on passenger-car fuel economy for the period 1968
to 19S5 is summarized in Table 1-5. Fuel economy data were
obtained from References 12, 13, and 14,
2-244
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Table 1-5
Effect of Emission Controls on
Fuel Economy of the Average Passenger Car*
Change in MPG of the Model Year
Model Year Cars Due to Controls
1967 0.0
1968 -0.65
1969 -0.28
1970 0.34
1971 -0.35
1972 -0.22
1973 -0.43
1974 -0.04
1975 1.87
1976 1.89
1977 0.0
1978 0.0
1979 0.0
1980 0.0
1981 0.0
1982 0.0
1983 0.0
1984 0.0
1985 0.0
i Baseline fuel economy of 1967 model year car (combined
cycle city-highway) = 15.5 mpg. All percentages shown
are based on Urban Cycle Fuel Economy tested on the 1975
EPA Federal Test Procedures.
2-245
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LIGHT-DUTY TRUCKS
For this report, it is assumed that emission control
equipment costs for light-duty trucks are the same as for
passenger cars for 1973 and 1974. .Beginning with the 1975
model year, less stringent standards vere set for light-duty
trucks than for passenger cars. Consequently it is assumed
in this report that emission control costs for model years
1975-85 will be only moderately higher ($150 per car in
December 1974 dollars) than for the 1973-74 model years.
Annual maintenance costs for 1973 and 1974 model year light-
duty trucks are estimated to be $16 per vehicle. For the
1975 to 1985 model year period, it is estimated that there
will be a maintenance cost benefit of $5 per vehicle due to
the use of catalysts, low-maintenance emission-control
components, and unleaded fuel in a significant portion of
light-duty trucks sold in that period.
Fuel economy of light-duty trucks is expected to be the same
as for light-duty passenger cars for 1973 and 1974. A fuel
economy gain of 6 percent is estimated for the 1975 model
year, and no change for the 1976 to 1985 period.
The costs calculated in this report all assume that current
regulations for light-duty trucks will remain the same.
However, EPA recently made two significant changes to
existing regulations beginning with the 1979 model year,
which are not analyzed in this report. First, the size of
the light-duty truck class was increased from the present
class which includes all trucks with gross vehicle weight
ratings of 0 to 6,000 pounds to an expanded class to include
all trucks weighing between 0 and 8,500 pounds. Second,
emissions standards for light trucks were reduced slightly
from existing levels. These changes tend to increase the
cost estimates made in this report for the years 1978 to
1985. All 6,000- to 8,500-pound trucks that are currently
considered heavy-duty trucks and are controlled to less
stringent standards must be equiped with additional
pollution control devices, though the 0 to 6,000-pound
trucks should not require any additional equipment to meet
the lower standard. No change in fuel economy is expected
due to this action.
FUEL COST INCREASES
Two EPA regulations affecting fuel costs are discussed
belpw. One pertains to requiring gasoline marketers to make
available 91 research octane number lead-free gasoline by
2-246
-------
July 1, 1974, for use in oxidation catalyst-equipped
vehicles. The other EPA regulation required that the lead
content of leaded gasoline be reduced to an average of 0.5
grams per gallon (g./gal.) by October 1979. This latter
regulation, aimed at reducing lead in the atmosphere for
health purposes, was recently upheld by the courts as
discussed earlier in this chapter. Thus, for the purposes
of this report, it is assumed that lead phase-down will take
place as called for by EPA. The promulgated schedule
stretches the lead removal over a relatively long period of
time.
AGGREGATE NATIONAL COSTS FOR
LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE EMISSION CONTROLS
Costs to the nation for light-duty vehicle emission control
will be comprised of the aggregate of equipment,
maintenance, and fuel-consumption cost increments
attributable to the control devices. Since the various
costs attributable to emission controls are different for
each model year, total costs to the nation have been
estimated separately for each model year using vehicle-
population data for previous years and projections for
future years.
Vehicle Population Estimates. Registration data** are
available at this time for vehicle model years up to 1974
for each calendar year through 1974. Estimates of vehicle
populations for future years are based on the U.S.
passenger-vehicle sales projections17 shown in Table 1-6.
These projections reflect the major downturn in new-car
sales which began late in 1973. Using these projections and
typical scrappage-rate histories1»,*» for previous model
years, the vehicle population trends shown in Figure 1-1 are
estimated. As shown, uncontrolled passenger vehicles will
constitute only about 5 percent of the population by 1980,
and 92 percent of the vehicles will have been manufactured
under controls imposed by the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1970.
2-247
-------
Table 1-6.
Historical and Projected Sales
of Passenger vehicles
Sales
Model Year (Millions of Vehicles)
1968 9.40
1969 9.53
1970 8.46
1971 9.96
1972 10.61
1973 11.46
1974 8.9
1975 8.6
1976 10.7
1977 10.4
1978 9.1
1979 9.8
1980 11.8
1981 12.6
1982 12.5
1983 12.6
1984 12.8
1985 12.3
Notes:
1. 1968 to 1973 sales data based on data from Automotive
News 1974 Almanac Issue, April 24, 1974.
2. 1974 sales, Automotive News, March 3, 1975.
3. 1977-85 predicted sales from the Chase Econometric
Associates study for EPA/CEQ, June 1977.
2-248
-------
Figure 1-1.
Estimated Passenger-car Population
120
1968 1970
1972 1974 1976
CALENDAR YEAR
1978
1980
2-249
-------
in estimating light-duty truck population, it is assumed
that survival factors for presently registered light trucks
will be slightly higher than those for passenger carszo/ and
that new registrations of light trucks will follow the same
pattern as passenger cars for the interval 1974-85.
Estimated Total Costs, 1968-1985. A breakdown of annual
national cost estimates for passenger car emission control
is presented in Table 1-7. Equipment costs for each
calendar year are taken as the equipment cost attributable
to the new model-year vehicles. Maintenance and equipment
costs for each calendar year are attributable to all
controlled vehicles over 1-year old in the vehicle
population for that year. Costs attributable to fuel price
penalties are applied to all gasoline consumed by passenger
vehicles for the affected years (assuming continued
utilization of catalytic converters). Similarly, a
breakdown of annual national cost estimates for light-duty
truck emission control is presented in Table 1-8.
2-250
-------
Table 1-7,
Estimated National Costs Attributable
to Light-Duty Passenger Car Emission
Controls. 1968-1985
Annual Incremental Expenditures (Billions of Dollars')
Calendar
Year
1968
1969
197O
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
198O
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1968-85'
1976-85
Equipment
O.O9
O.O9
O.47
O.5S
0.53
1 .27
0.90
1 .73
2.35
2.45
2. 15
2.31
3.82
5.75
5.7O
5.74
5.84
5.61
47 .4
41 .72
Ma i ntenance
O.27
O.52
O.69
O.9O
1
1
1
1 .
. 12
,31
.42
.07
O.86
O.68
O.5O
O.31
O. 14
O.O3
(O.O4)
(O.15)
(O.17)
(0.17)
9.29
1 .99
Fuel
Consumpt ion
Penal ty3
O.21
O.28
0. 15
O.25
O.31
O.43
O.5O
(0. 14)
(0.94)
(0.81)
(0.72)
(0.67)
(0.69)
(0.65)
(0.64)
(0.60)
(0.55)
(0.35)
(4.63)
(6.62)
Fuel
Price
Penal ty
_-
__
--
--
--
--
--
O.07
O.24
O.36
O.51
O.67
O.88
1.10
1 .28
1 .37
1 .41
1 .43
9.32
9.25
Annual
Total
Cumulat1ve
Total
--
__
--
--
--
--
--
O.07
O.24
O.36
O.51
O.67
O.88
1.10
1 .28
1 .37
1 .41
1 .43
9.32
9.25
O.
O,
1 ,
1 .
1 .
3.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
4 .
6.
6.
6.
6.
6.
.57
.89
.31
.71
96
.01
.82
73
51
68
,44
62
O7
23
30
36
53
52
O
1
2
4
6,
9.
12.
15.
17.
2O.
22.
27.
31 .
38.
44 .
50.
57.
63.
.57
.46
.77
.48
,44
.45
.27
.OO
.51
19
.63
.87
94
17
47
83
36
88
-------
tv>
C"
Table 1-7,
Estimated National Costs Attributable
to Light-Duty Passenger Car Emission
Controls. 1968-1985
Annual Incremental Expenditures (Billions of Dollars')
1 Current dollars used for 1968-74; December 1975 dollars used for 1975-85.
Interest Is not applied to annual expenditures.
' Fuel prices assumed: 1968. 43.O cents/gal.; 1969. 44.0 cents/gal.; 197O, 45.0 cents/gal.;
1971. 45.O cents/gal.; 1972, 43.O cents/gal.; 1973, 43.O cents/gal.: 1974-75 55 cents/gal.;
1976, 60 cents/gal.; 1977. 6O cents/gal.; 1978, 61 cents/gal.; 1979, 62 cents/gal.; 198O.
63 cents/gal; 1981, 64 cents/gal.- 1932-83, 65 cents/gal.; 1984, 66 cents/gal.;
1985, 67 cents/gal.
3 Based on fuel cost increase due to lead-free and phasedown regulations of 1.0O cents/gal, for 1975-76,
1.5 cents/gal, for 1976-77, and 1.7 cents/gal, for 1978; 1.9 cents/gal, for 1979; 2.1 cents/gal, for 198O;
2.3 cents/gal, for 1981; 2.5 cents/gal, for 1982-85.
• Totals may not equal the sum of tabular entries due to rounding.
-------
N>
i
to
ui
Table 1-8.
Estimated National Costs Attributable
to Light-Duty Truck Emission Controls, 1973-1985
Annual Incremental Expenditures' (Billions of Dollars')
Calendar
Year
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1973-85
1976-85
Equipment Maintenance
0.
0.
O.
O.
O.
O.
O.
0.
0.
O.
0.
O.
0.
3.
2.
17
13
2O
26
28
26.
26
29
29
29
3O
3O
31
34
84
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
(0
(0
(0
(0
(0
O
(0
.03
.05
.05
.04
.03
.02
.01
O
.01)
.02)
.03)
.04)
.05)
.08
.05)
Fuel
Consumption
Penalty'
O.O7
0.21
O.28
O.38
O.48
O.57
O.66
O.76
O.87
O.98
1 , 10
1 .22
1 .35
8.43
8.37
Fuel
Price
Penalty'
—
--
O.O5
0.07
O. 11
O. 14
O. 16
O.22
O.25
O.28
O.31
O.35
O.39
2.33
2.28
Annua 1
Total
O.27
O.39
O.58
O.75
O.9O
O.99
1 .09
1.27
1 .40
1 .53
1 .68
1 .83
2.OO
14.68
13.44
Cumulat ive
Total
O.27
O.66
1 .24
99
2.89
3.88
4.97
6.24
7.64
3. 17
1O. 85
12.58
14.68
Trucks less than 6.OOO pounds gross vehicle weight.
Interest Is not applied to annual expenditures.
Current dollars used 1973-74; December 1974 dollars used 1975-8S.
Fuel prices assumed: 1973, 41.6 cents/gal.; 1974-75. 55 cents/gal.; 1976. 61 cents/gal.;
1977, 63 cents/gal.; 1978, 65 cents/gal.; 1979, 67 cents/gal.: 198O, 69 cents/gal.
Based on fuel cost increase due to lead-free and phasedown regulations of 1.O9 cents/gal, for 1975-76
1.3 cents/gal, for 1977-79, and 1.5 cents/gal, for 198O.
-------
Heavy-Duty Vehicle Controls
EMISSION STANDARDS
Separate emission-control regulations have been in effect
since 1970 for new heavy-duty gasoline and diesel truck
engines manufactured for use in over-the-highway trucks and
buses of over 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight. Trucks
under 6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight are currently
considered light-duty vehicles and have been dealt with in
the previous paragraphs of this section. (Newly proposed
regulations would increase the light-duty class to 8,500
pounds.) Heavy-duty truck engine emission test procedures
are performed on the engine itself and do not pertain to the
vehicle as in the case of light-duty truck and passenger car
regulations.
Federal regulations for emissions from heavy-duty gasoline
engines are shown in Table 1-10. For 1970 through 1973,
regulations covered hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emissions measured in terms of average concentrations in the
engine exhaust over a nine-mode, constant-speed, variable-
load dynamometer cycle. In 1974, new standards went into
effect which are based on the same test procedure, but in
which emissions are reported in terms of grams per
horsepower-hour (g./hp-hr). The sum of hydrocarbon and
nitrogen oxide emissions is limited to 16 g./hp-hr, while
the standard for carbon monoxide is 40 g./hp-hr for 1974 and
later model-year heavy-duty gasoline engines.
Heavy-duty diesel truck engine Federal standards are also
shown in Table 1-10. Through 1970-73, standards covered
smoke emissions only. In 1974, the standards were revised
to include hydrocarbon, nitrogen oxide, and carbon monoxide
emissions as well as more stringent smoke emissions. The
permissible gaseous-emission levels are the same as for
heavy-duty gasoline engines for 1974, but the test procedure
is different. For diesels, emissions are averaged over a
13-mode, variable-speed, variable-load dynamometer cycle.
EPA is making changes to the heavy-duty engine standards and
test procedures effective for model year 1979. Cost of
control estimates made in this report do not reflect the
implementation of these rules, nor do they reflect the
change in the light-duty truck class to include all trucks
with gross vehicle weights belov 8,500 pounds. This
regulation will reduce the size of the heavy-duty truck
class subject to the heavy-duty standards and would
therefore reduce the cost estimates for achieving heavy-duty
emissions standards.
2-254
-------
Table 1-9.
Federal Standards for Heavy-Duty
Gasoline and Diesel-Engine Emissions
Emission Standards*
Pollutant 1970-73 1974
Gasoline Engines
Hydrocarbons (HO 275 ppm 16 g./hp-hr
Oxides of nitrogen (N0>c)
Carbon monoxide (CO) 1.5 % 40 g./hp-hr
Diesel Engines
Smoke:
Opacity in acceler- 40% 20%
ating mode
Opacity in lugging 20% 15%
mode
PeaX opacity in — 50%
either mode
HC + NOx -- 16 g./hp-hr
CO — 40 g./hp-hr
* For use in vehicles of more than 6,000 pounds gross
vehicle weight.
HEAVY-DUTY GASOLINE ENGINE CONTROLS
The emission control technology used for heavy-duty gasoline
engines through 1973 is similar to that employed for light-
duty trucks and passenger cars through the 1972 model year.
In fact, many heavy-duty gasoline engines are derivatives of
passenger car engines. For 1974, the nitrogen oxide control
standards were generally attainable without the use of EGR,
although some EGH engines were certified in the previous
year to meet California standards for 1973 which were at the
same level as Federal standards for 1974.
No detailed equipment cost estimates have been made by EPA
for heavy-duty gasoline-truck engine emission controls. In
the absence of such estimates, it is assumed for purposes of
this report that the per-vehicle emission control equipment
cost increment of 1970-73 engines is equivalent to that for
1970 model-year passenger car engines minus the cost of fuel
evaporation controls, equalling $24 per vehicle. It is
2-255
-------
further assumed that the 1974 and following year control
equipment costs will be equivalent to that for a 1973
passenger car engine less the cost of EGR and evaporative
controls, or $50.00 per vehicle.
Incremental annual maintenance costs for heavy-duty gasoline
truck engine controls for all years are assumed to be the
same as passenger car costs for model years 1968 through
1974, or $16 per vehicle. Fuel consumption penalties are
estimated to be 3 percent for the 1970-1973 period, and 5
percent for 1974 and beyond. A baseline fuel economy of 8.5
mpg is assumed. Estimates of total per-vehicle costs
attributable to emission controls for this class of trucks
are summarized in Table 1-10.
2-256
-------
I
to
Calendar
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1973
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1970-85
1976-85
Table 1-1O.
Estimated National Costs Attributable
to Gasol1ne-Fueled Heavy-Outy Truck1
Emission Controls. 1,970-1985
Annual Incremental Expenditures* (Billions of Dollars')
Equipment Maintenance
O.O2
O.O2
O.O2
0.02
O.O4
O.O4
O.05
O.O5
O.O5
O.O5
0.05
O.O5
O.O5
O.O5
O.O5
O.O5
0.66
O.5C
O.
0.
O.01
O.O2
O.O3
O.05
O.O6
O.O8
O. 1O
1 1
13
O. 14
O. 16
O. 18
O.20
O.22
0.24
O.26
1 .99
1 .74
Fuel
Consumpt ion
Penal
O.
0.
0.
O.
O.
O.
O.
O.
O.
0,
O.
O.
O,
O.
O.
O.
5.
5.
ty
01
03
O4
O7
13
17
25
31
37
44
5O
55
60
65
70
75
57
12
Fuel
Price
Penal
--
--
--
-~
--
O.
O.
O.
o.
0.
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
o.
2.
2.
Annual
ty
09
1 1
16
18
19
24
28
32
36
4O
44
77
68
Total
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
O.
O.
0.
0.
0.
1 ,
1 .
1 .
1 .
1 .
1O.
04
07
O9
14
23
38
51
63
73
82
95
O6
17
28
39
5O
99
1O. O4
Cumulateve
Total
O.O4
O. 11
O.2O
0.-34
O.57
0.95
1 .46
2,09
2.82
.3.54
4 .59
5.65
S.82
8. 1O
9.49
1O.99
Trucks over 6.OOO pounds gross vehicle weight.
Current dollars used 1970-74: December 1974 dollars used 1975-1985.
Fuel prices assumed: 197O, 44.3 cents/gal.; 1971, 43.4 cents/gal.; 1972. 41.5 cents/gal.;
1973, 41.S cents/gal.; 1974-75, 55 cents/gal.; 1976, 51 cents/gal.: 1977, 63 cents/gal.;
1978, 65 cents/gal,; 1979. 67 cents/gal.; 198O, 69 cents/gal.
Based on fuel cost increase due to lead-free and phasedown regulations of 1.O9 cents/gal, for 1975-76,
1.3 cents/gal, for 1977-79. 1.5 cents/gal, for 198O.
Interest not applied to annual expenditures.
-------
It is estimated that the population of 1970-73 trucks of
this class will peak at about 4.5 million in 1973, and that
the total controlled population will have reached
approximately 9.0 million in 1980. Estimated costs for
heavy-duty gasoline truck Federal emission controls are
presented in Table 1-11.
Table 1-11.
Estimated Per-vehicle Cost Penalties for Heavy-Duty
Gasoline Engine Emission Control
Model Years
incremental 1970-73 1974-85
Cost Item (1974 Dollars)
Emission-control $24 $50
equipment cost
Annual maintenance 16 16
Fuel consumption 3% 5%
penalty1
>• Based on 8.5 mpg for pre-1970 trucks.
HEAVY-DUTY DIESEL ENGINE CONTROLS
Both smoke and gaseous emission standards, including those
for 1974, have been attained largely through fuel-injection
system modifications. Nitrogen oxide and smoke are the more
difficult emissions to control; even uncontrolled diesels
are usually well within carbon monoxide standards.
Equipment cost penalties are considered nominal; further, it
is estimated that no fuel consumption penalties have been
incurred. Accordingly, no national cost penalty is
attributed to diesel-truck engine emission controls.
Aircraft Emission Controls
Aircraft emissions have been identified as significant
contributors to the regional burden of pollution in
comparison to other sources which will have to be controlled
to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
2-258
-------
Airports are concentrated sources of pollutant emissions
which will in many cases reduce local air quality to
unsatisfactory levels even though emissions from automobiles
and stationary sources are within acceptable levels within
the general area. That is, unless aircraft emissions are
reduced, airports will still remain intense area emitters of
pollutants, even after emissions from other area sources
have been greatly reduced.
The Clean Air Act directs the Administrator of the EPA to
"establish standards applicable to emissions of any air
pollutant from any class or classes of aircraft or aircraft
engines which in his judgment cause or contribute to air
pollution which endangers the public health or welfare." In
July 1973, Federal emission standards and test procedures
were established for various classes of new and in-use
aircraft engines.21 These regulations are based on the need
to control emissions occurring under 3,000 feet to protect
ambient air quality in urban areas. However, the standards
are not quantitatively derived from the air quality
considerations in affected areas but, instead, reflect EPA's
judgment as to the emission levels that will be practicable
with present and projected technology. The requisite
technology is assumed to include advanced combustion-system
concepts for turbine engines and improved fuel systems for
piston engines. The standards cover (a) fuel venting
regulations beginning January 1, 1974, (b) smoke emission
regulations taking effect in 1974, 1976, and 1978 for
various engine classes, and (c) gaseous emission (carbon
monoxide, hydrocarbon, and nitrogen oxide) standards for
1979 and 1981. Gaseous emissions regulations are based on a
simulated landing-and-take off operating cycle which
includes: (1) taxi/idle (out), (2) take off, (3) climb out,
(4) approach, and (5) taxi/idle (in). Piston engines are
included in the standards beginning in 1979.
in general, the influence of the regulations will be to
contribute to the maintenance of the quality of the air in
and around major air terminals throughout the post-1979 era
in which air traffic is undergoing expansion. Present
aircraft emission standards21 and their estimated cost
impact"," are listed in Table 1-12. Costs of fuel-venting
and smoke emission controls through 1978, totaling $17
million, are minor in comparison to costs of controlling
other sources in that time period.
2-259
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Table 1-12.
Aircraft Emission Standards and Estimated Cost Impacts
to
Calendar
Year
1974
1974
1976
1981
Standards
JT8D smoke standards.
Fuel venting restrictions for
new and in-use engines
(1975 for business-aircraft
eng i nes).
Smoke standards, new turbine
engines except JT3D, JT8D,
and supersonic.
JT3D smoke standards.
Implementation
Technology
Combustor and fuel nozzle
retrofit.
Plumbing and/or operational
changes.
None, engines already
comply
Fuel nozzle retrofit.
Estimated Cost of
Implementation
Voluntarily completed.
Cost not estimated
$2 mi 11 ion.
None.
$37.5 mil 1 ion.
1979 Gaseous emission (HC. CO. and
NOx) standards for all
engines manufactured.
1980 Same as 1979.
1981-85 Gaseous emission standards
for newly certified engines.
Sources: EPA, References 12 and 24.
Modified engine hot section.
Same as 1979.
Advanced combustor and
engine concepts.
1985 Cumulative Total
$66 mi 11 ion' ,'
$5 mill ion*,3
$8 mi 11 ion
$93 mi 11 ion'
1 Principally development and recert1fication costs. Includes additional engine hardware costs which will
be incurred in 1979. Maximum additional engine cost estimate to be:
$1O,OOO per large turbine engine
6,000 per small turbine engine over 8.0OO Ib thrust
2.OOO per small turbine engine under S.OOO Ib thrust, and per turboprop or APO engine
52 per piston engine.
* Estimated $2.9 million In piston engine fuel savings per year for 1979 and 198O is included.
1 Estimated $3.5 million for hardware and $1.5 million for certification.
-------
The estimated cost of development and recertification
efforts for compliance with the 1979 gaseous-emission
standards is $66 million, and the additional engine-hardware
costs, which will be incurred in 1979, are estimated to be
$3.5 million. The costs incurred in 1980 for compliance
with the 1979 standards are estimated to be $3.5 million for
hardware and $1.5 million for certification for a total of
$5.0 million. The 1979 standards promulgated for piston-
type aircraft are expected to result in significant fuel
savings: $29 million over 10 years. Credit for these
savings has been assumed at a uniform rate of $2.9 million
per year in estimating the cost of aircraft emission
controls for 1979 and 1980. In total, cumulative national
costs through 1980 for aircraft emission control are
expected to total approximately $85 million (including $5.8
million for fuel savings).
Discussion of unregulated
Mobile Source Emission
As stated in the introduction, a number of mobile sources
are presently unregulated. These include: railroad
locomotives, marine engines, and offroad farm, construction,
and garden equipment.
Emission inventories have been performed on many of these
unregulated mobile sourceszs-aa.
As a general conclusion, most small-engined mobile sources
(such as garden equipment, outboard engines, and
snowmobiles) each contribute less than 1 percent of the
total hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide from mobile sources,
and less than 0.1 percent of the total nitrogen oxide (based
on 1970 data). While these percentages are increasing as
passenger cars and trucks come under more stringent control,
it would not appear to be cost-effective to regulate these
mobile sources until some future time.
In a publication by HEW2», it was estimated that the total
carbon monoxide emissions from railroad locomotives in 1968
constituted about 1.6 percent of the emissions from all
transportation sources. Percentages for hydrocarbon, total
particulates, and sulfur oxides were 1.8, 16.7, and 12.5,
respectively. At present, there are no proposed regulations
for railroad locomotive exhaust emissions.
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SUMMARY OF MOBILE SOURCE
CONTROL COSTS
The preceding costs estimates for light and heavy duty
trucks and aircraft source air pollution controls are
expressed
Table 1-13.
Estimated Total National Costs for Mobile Source
Emission Control, 1968-1985
Annual National Investment and O&M Expenditures
(Billions of 1975 Dollars)
Year
Light-Duty Passenger
Car Emission Control
Light Duty Truck
Emission Control
Heavy-Duty Vehicle
Emission Control
Aircraft Emission
Control
Total Annual
Cost
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1968-85
1976-85
O.57
O.89
1 .31
1 .71
1 .96
3.01
2.82
2.73
2.51
2.S8
2 .44
2.62
4.O7
6.23
6.3O
6.56
6.53
6.52
61 .46
46.46
0.29
O.42
O.63
O.81
0.97
1.O7
1 . 18
1 .37
1 .51
1 .65
1.81
1 .98
2. 16
15.85
14.51
O.05
O.O9
O. 11
0.17
O.41
O.79
0.55
0.68
0.79
0.89
O3
15
27
39
51
1 .63
11.97
1O.89
O.O2
O.O8
0.002
O.OO2
O.OO2
O.OO2
O. 1O8
O. 108
O.57
O.89
.1 .36
1 .80
2.07
3.47
3.49
3.77
3.87
4.33
4 .32
4.77
6.47
8.89
9.22
9.76
10.O2
10.31
89.38
71 .96
Interest not applied to annual investments.
-------
References
1. Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of
1974. Public Law 93-319, 93rd Congress, H.R. 14368,
June 22, 1974.
2. "Certification of New vehicles intended for Initial
Sale at High Altitude/1 Federal Register, vol. 39, No.
203, Friday, October 18, 1974.
3. "Decision of the Administrator on Applications for
Suspension of 1977 Motor vehicle Exhaust Emission
Standards," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, D.C., March 5, 1975.
4. opening Statement by Administrator Russell E. Train on
1977 Suspension Decision, March 5, 1975.
5. "Decision of the Administrator on Remand From the
United States Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia Circuit on Applications for Suspension of 1975
Motor vehicle Exhaust Emission Standards," U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.,
April 11, 1973.
6. "Decision of the Administrator on Applications for
Suspension of 1976 Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission
Standards/' U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, D.C., July 30, 1973.
7. The Economics of Clean Air. Annual Report to Congress,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, March 1972.
8. Report by_ the Committee on Motor vehicle Emission,
National Academy of Sciences, EPA Contract No. 68-01-
0402, February 12, 1973.
9. "Decision of the Administrator on Remand from the
United States Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia Circuit on Applications for Suspension of 1975
Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission Standards", U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.,
April 11, 1973.
10. "Decision of the Administrator on Applications for
Suspension of 1976 Motor vehicle Exhaust Emission
Standards," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, D.C., July 30, 1973.
11. Automobile Emission Control—The Technical Status and
outlook a_s o|_ December. 1974 r A Report to the
2-263
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Administrator, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by
Emission control Technology Division, January 1975.
12* A Report on Automotive Fuel Economy, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, October 1973.
13. Automobile Gasoline Mileage Test Results. 1974 Cars and
Light-Duty Trucks. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, September 18, 1973.
14. Potential for Motor Vehicle Fuel Economy Improvement.
Report to the Congress by U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, October 24, 1974.
15. EPA Analysis of FEQ Review qf_ Lead Phase-Down
Regulation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, April
9, 1974.
16. Automotive News 1973 Almanac^ April 30, 1973.
17. Long Term Forecast. Chase Econometric Associates, June
1977.
18. "Forecast of Motor Vehicle Distribution, Production,
and Scrappage, 1971-1990," U.S. Department of
Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, October
1971.
19. 1973/74 Automobile Facts and Figures. Published by
Motor vehicle Manufacturers Association, Detroit,
Michigan.
20. Tingley, D.S., and Johnson, J.H., "Emissions and Fuel
Usage by the U.S. Truck and Bus Population and
Strategies for Achieving Reduction," SAE Paper No.
740537, June 1974.
21. "control of Air Pollution From Aircraft and Aircraft
Engines, Emission Standards and Test Procedures for
Aircraft," Federal Register, Vol. 38, No. 136 Tuesday
July 17, 1973.
22• Aircraft Emissions; impact on Air Quality and
Feasibility of Control. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency.
23. cost estimates provided by R. Sampson, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
2-264
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24. EPA Memorandum: "Analysis of Estimated Maintenance
Costs for Emission Control Systems Meeting the 1975/76
Federal Standards."
25. Hare, C.T., Springer, K.J., Oliver, W.R., Houtman,
W.H., and Huls, T.A., "Motor Cycle Emissions, Their
impact, and Possible Control Techniques", SAE Paper No.
740627, Presented at SAE West Coast Meeting, August
1974.
26. Hare, C.T., Springer, K.J., Oliver, W.R., and Houtman,
W.H., "Small Engine Emissions and Their impact", SAE
Paper No. 730859, Presented at SAE National FCIM and FL
Meeting, September 1973.
27. Hare, C.T., Springer, K.3., and Huls, T.A., "Exhaust
Emissions From Two-Stroke Outboard Motors and Their
impact", SAE Paper No. 740737, Presented at SAE
National FCIM and FL Meeting, September 1974.
28. Hare, C.T., Springer, K.J., and Huls, T.A., "Snowmobile
Engine Emissions and Their impact", SAE Paper No.
740735, Presented at SAE National FCIM and FL Meeting,
September 1974.
29. Nationwide Inventory of_ Air Pollutant Emissions—1968,
U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare,
Public Health service, Environmental Health Service,
National Air Pollution Control Administration,
Publication No. AP-73, August 1970.
2-265
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2. TRANSPORTATION CONTROL PLANS
Summary
When new-vehicle emission standards and stationary-source
control are fully implemented, twenty-seven Air Quality
Control Regions (AQCR) are still expected to exceed the
oxidant and carbon monoxide air quality standards of 1975.
To meet the air quality standards, these AQCR's will be
required to implement Transportation Control Plans {TCP}.
The aim of the TCP's is to reduce total emissions of in-use
vehicles by implementing either or both of the following
strategies to control total emissions from in-use vehicles:
• Measures that reduce emissions per vehicle mile of
travel
• Measures that reduce total vehicle miles travelled
(VMT).
The first strategy includes the application of retrofit
control systems, inspection and maintenance of vehicles, and
service station vapor controls. The second strategy
contains mass transit improvements, carpool programs, and
other methods that will reduce the use of low-occupancy
automobiles.
A detailed discussion of measures contained in the TCP's is
given in the following paragraphs. Costs for implementing
the inspection and maintenance programs, installation of
retrofit devices, and service station vapor control systems
are estimated for each AQCR for the period 1976 to 1985
inclusive. The costs to the vehicle owners of implementing
these measures are estimated to be $344 million in 1976,
$441 million in 1977, and thereafter remaining relatively
constant through 1985. However, a net benefit results by
taking into account the fuel savings that are expected to
result from tune-ups 'required by the inspection and
maintenance strategies. Hence, the cumulative benefit for
the period 1976-85 is estimated to be about $540 million
(see Table 2-13). Approximately $664 million will be spent
for capital investment over the decade and a little over $3
billion will go to operation and maintenance of the program
(see Table 2-14). To maintain maximum clarity and
usability, it was decided not to convert the U.S. units of
measure contained in this section to metric equivalents.
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Introduction
The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (hereafter referred to
as the Act) directed EPA to set national primary and
secondary ambient air quality standards. The primary
standards must be established so that their attainment and
maintenance will protect the public health with an adequate
margin of safety. The secondary standards will protect the
public welfare from any known or anticipated adverse effects
associated with the presence of air pollutants. In 1971,
national ambient air quality standards were established for
six pollutants, including the four primary pollutants
associated with motor vehicles:. carbon monoxide, nitrogen
dioxide, photochemical oxidant, and hydrocarbons.
Hydrocarbons are reactants in the formation of oxidants, and
they have no known health effects at ambient concentrations.
The primary and secondary standards for these pollutants are
identical and are shown in Table 2-1.
Table 2-1.
National Primary and Secondary Ambient Air
Quality Standards
Air Quality
Pollutant Standard1 (ppm) Averaging Time
Hydrocarbons 0.24 3 hours
or or
9.00 8 hours
Carbon Monoxide 35.00 1 hour
Nitrogen Dioxide 0.05 Annual
Photochemical Oxidant 0.08 1 hour
» Primary and secondary standards for these pollutants are
identical. Standards are not to be exceeded more than
once a year.
Source: Reference 1.
The standards for the motor-vehicle-related pollutants have
been exceeded in a number of major urban areas. From the
State implementation Plans (SIP) submitted to EPA by the
states in February 1972, it was found that of the 247 AQCR's
2-267
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in the United States, 54 regions exceeded the air quality
standard for oxidants, 29 exceeded the carbon monoxide
standard, and 2 exceeded the nitrogen dioxide standard. In
total, sixty-six AQCR's, representing roughly 60 percent of
the nation's population/ exceeded one or more of these
standards.
The Act established three principal approaches to achieving
the air quality standards:
« Emissions standards for new automobiles
• Emissions standards for stationary sources (power
plants, industrial sources, and general area sources)
« In-use vehicle controls.
EPA is authorized to promulgate and enforce emissions
standards for new automobiles, trucks, and motorcycles. EPA
has used this authority to establish increasingly stringent
emissions standards for cars and initial standards for
trucks. More stringent truck standards as well as
motorcycle emissions standards are now under development.2
The Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974
extended the 1975 and 1976 deadlines of the Act for two
years.
Reductions in pollutant concentrations resulting from the
implementation of new-vehicle emissions standards and
stationary-source controls were projected to significantly
reduce the number of AQCR's exceeding the oxidant or carbon
monoxide air quality standards. These include approximately
40 percent of the nation's population. Table 2-2 presents a
list of these AQCR's together with the ambient
concentrations for carbon monoxide and photochemical
oxidants measured through 1972. Having controlled the
emissions from stationary sources and new vehicles to the
extent possible, those states containing the AQCR's that are
still projected to exceed the air quality standards will be
required to implement transportation control plans, i.e.,
control of in-use vehicles, to meet the requirements of the
Act. This section describes the TCP's to be implemented in
those states containing the AQCR's listed in Table 2-2, and
it includes the estimated costs to the nation.
2-268
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to
NJ
Table 2-2.
1971-1972 Air Quality Levels in Regions Projected to Exceed Primary Ambient Air
Quality Standards in 1975
10-15
Carbon Monoxide - 8 Hour Average (ppm)
16-2O 21-24
Indlanapolis
Minneapolis-St.
San Diego Sacramento
Paul San Francisco Baltimore
San doaquin Boston
District of Columbia Springfield
Seattle
Spokane
Chicago
Portland
Pi ttsburgh
Salt Lake City
Oxidant - 1 Hour Average (ppm)
O.1O-O.15
O.16-O.20
O.21-0.3O
Phoenix-Tucson
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Dallas-Ft. Worth
San Antonio
Indianapolis
Rochester
Cincinnat i
Port land
Seattle
Springfield
Denver Sacramento
District of Columbia San doaquin
New York City Baltimore
Boston
25-35
Fairbanks
Phoen i x-Tucson
Denver
Philadelphia
O.31-0.40
San Diego
San Francisco
Houston-Galveston
36-42
Los Angeles
New York City
Greater than
0.4O
Los Angeles
Source; Reference 2, p. 22.
-------
Overall Strategies
TCP's make use of either or both of the following strategies
to control total emissions from in-use vehicles:
• Measures that reduce emissions per vehicle mile of
travel
• Measures that reduce total vehicle miles travelled
(VMT).
The first strategy includes the inspection and maintenance
of vehicles in use and the application of retrofit control
systems. The second strategy includes mass transit
improvements, carpool programs, and other methods that will
reduce the total use of automobiles. TCP's mainly pursue
the above strategies with respect to automobile travel. The
goals are to reduce emissions per vehicle mile and/or to
reduce VMT for automobiles. Although motor vehicles are not
the only source of hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and
nitrogen oxide emissions, Table 2-3 clearly indicates the
significance of automotive emissions.
Table 2-3.
Mix of Emission Sources in Urban Areas - 1971
Percent of Total Emissions
Trucks,
Buses &
Motor- Stationary
Pollutants Automobiles cycles Sources
Carbon Monoxide 77-87 8-10 3-15
Hydrocarbons 50-65 5-10 25-45
Nitrogen Oxides 40-50 8-13 37-52
Source: Reference 3, p. m-23.
Measures that Reduce Emissions
Per Vehicle Miles
INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS
The term "inspection and maintenance" covers a variety of
strategies for reducing air pollutant emissions from light-
2-270
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duty motor vehicles that are currently in use by
establishing procedures that will ensure proper maintenance
.of vehicles. Emissions from most vehicles tend to increase
with use until the vehicle on the road is properly tuned.
Thus, most vehicles on the road are emitting more than they
were designed to emit or more than they would be emitting
after a tune-up. The inspection and maintenance programs
will systematically reduce the emissions from an automobile
population.
Most of the inspection and maintenance programs have two
distinct phases:
• An inspection phase, in which motorists are required to
periodically present their vehicles for examination
• A maintenance phase, in which vehicles that fail the
examination must be tuned up to bring them into
compliance.
Three classifications cover the major alternative approaches
in an inspection and maintenance program4.
• Exhaust emissions inspection
• Engine parameter inspection
• Mandatory maintenance.
The exhaust emissions inspection will be the only one
discussed because it is the only approach that is being used
at present in those states that have initiated the program.
Exhaust Emissions Inspection. This inspection technique
involves sampling the exhaust gases from the examined
vehicle and passing the samples through suitable analytical
instrumentation to measure the quantities of air polluting
compounds they contain. If the concentration of each
compound falls below the applicable emissions standards, the
venicle passes the examination. If the concentration of any
pollutant is above the standard, the vehicle fails. If a
vehicle fails the test, it must then be adjusted or repaired
to bring the emissions into compliance. Following the
maintenance, the vehicle would normally be resubmitted for
an emission test to ensure that it is in compliance.
There are two types of vehicle operating modes that can be
used in an emissions inspection test. In an idle mode test,
emissions from the vehicle are measured using a tail-pipe
concentration while the vehicle is running in neutral. In a
loaded mode test, the emissions are measured while the
vehicle is running in gear on a treadmill-like device called
a dynamometer. when operating in this test mode, the
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vehicle can be drive in several conditions, such as
acceleration, cruise, deceleration, and idle. A driving
cycle composed of a series of different driving modes can
more accurately represent actual driving conditions. Thus,
emissions measurements taken in a loaded mode test are
usually more representative of actual driving emissions than
the measurements taken in an idle tests. However, due to
its more sophisticated equipment, the need for larger
testing and facility areas, and a longer testing time per
vehicle, the cost of a loaded mode program is higher than
the cost of an idle mode program for a given vehicle
population.
The choice of which inspection and maintenance program to
implement is a function of several factors, including the
desired emissions reduction, ownership and operation of the
inspection stations {public or private), and the
relationship of the inspection and maintenance program with
existing vehicle safety inspection programs.
In general, it is desirable to incorporate the inspection
and maintenance program with a vehicle safety inspection
program when one exists. If this approach is taken, the
manner in which the safety program is operated will have an
effect on the type of inspection and maintenance program
that is chosen. Of the thirty-two states, including the
District of Columbia, which have safety programs, only three
states have publicly owned and operated stations. Safety
programs in the remaining states are operated through
private garages and service stations. Loaded mode
inspection and maintenance programs could be incorporated
into a state-owned safety program, but it would be difficult
to incorporate a loaded mode test program into a state-
licensed safety program because of the high cost of the test
equipment. Therefore, in most cases idle mode tests could
be incorporated with state-licensed stations and loaded mode
tests with state-owned safety inspection stations. If a
loaded mode test is required in a state with a state-
licensed safety inspection program, it is most likely that a
separate state-operated emission test program would have to
be started.
Twenty-four areas are required to have some form of
inspection and maintenance program within the next two years
under the TCP's which have been approved or promulgated.
There are mandatory safety inspections in 13 of these TCP
areas. The plans specifically call for 20 idle mode and 7
loaded mode programs. The number of plans do not add to 24
because some AQCR's will include both idle mode and a loaded
mode or privately and publicly owned inspection facilities
as shown in Table 2-7.
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The expected emission reductions from an inspection and
maintenance program are a function of the mode type, the
frequency of the inspection, and the percentage of the
vehicle population that fail the inspection. in general,
inspection programs will be conducted on an annual cycle.
Reductions in hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide emissions,
but not nitrogen oxide emissions, can be expected.
Table 2-4 provides expected emission reductions for the idle
and loaded mode programs for various failure rates.
Table 2-4.
Inspection and Maintenance Emission Reduction Effectiveness
Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions
(Percentage of Emissions from All Vehicles Inspected)
Failure Rate
(Percentage of Vehicles Tested)
Mode Type 10 20 30 40 50
Idle 6 8 10 11 11
Loaded 8 11 13 14 15
Carbon Monoxide Emission Reductions
(Percentage of Emissions from All vehicles Inspected)
Failure Rate
(Percentage of Vehicles Tested)
Mode Type 10 20 30 40 50
Idle 3 68 9 10
Loaded 4 7 9 11 12
The failure rate is only a convenient shorthand way of
referring to the stringency of the emission standards.
Actually, the state will adopt specific emission standards
which each vehicle will be required to meet. When the
emission standards are compared to the distribution of
emissions for the total vehicle population, the percentage
of vehicles that are above the emission standard can be
determined. The resultant percentage represents those
vehicles that will fail the inspection and is termed the
failure rate. Thus, the more stringent the standard, the
2-273
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higher the failure rate. Since the emissions distribution
for the vehicle population can change from year to year, the
failure rate would also vary accordingly.
Costs will vary positively with the failure rate. Vehicles
that fail the test must receive corrective maintenance and
be retested. Program capacity must therefore be based not
only on the projected failure rate, but also on the rate of
retesting. Increased vehicle capacity must be met by adding
additional testing facilities and/or increasing the hours of
operation.
RETROFIT CONTROL PROGRAMS
A retrofit approach can be defined as the addition of any
device or system and/or any modification or adjustment on a
motor vehicle after its initial manufacture to achieve a
reduction in emissions*. Retrofit programs go beyond the
attempt made by inspection and maintenance programs to Keep
in-use vehicles at minimum emission levels consistent with
their type and original design. The only way to reduce the
rate of emissions from vehicles in-use further than the
level attained through inspection and maintenance is to
require retrofits. The objective of a retrofit program is
to reduce the emission levels of an in-use vehicle below its
"well-maintained" levels through the addition of a device or
system and/or a modification or adjustment after its initial
manufacture.
Normally, a retrofit program will not be planned unless
additional stationary-source controls, inspection and
maintenance, and some modest VMT reduction measures are also
implemented because retrofit devices alone are not enough to
meet the national air quality standards. This is
principally because of the high cost of retrofit devices and
the relatively short life-span of their effectiveness, i.e.,
as older vehicles leave the population, so do the retrofit
devices, and the effect of the low emitting new vehicles
becomes more predominant. All retrofit programs must embody
several important factors to be effective. These factors
include:
1. Choosing retrofit system that is most closely matched
to the particular pollutant problem in the area, since
different retrofit systems provide different emission
reductions for the three pollutants-
2. Assuring that a sufficient number of devices and
trained installation personnel will be available;
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3. incorporating a testing requirement at the time of
installation; and
4. Providing for annual inspection and maintenance of
retrofitted vehicles to assure proper operation in
subsequent years.
The two retrofit programs currently under consideration for
wide-spread implementation are:
• vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSAD)
• Air Bleed to intake Manifold
In addition, a high altitude modification to the air bleed
retrofits has been under consideration for Denver and Salt
Lake City. This modification involves timing and carburetor
changes on the air bleed. Preliminary test runs in Denver
by EPA showed that the high altitude modification would not
significantly reduce emission levels. Instead, an air bleed
system with exhaust gas recirculation appears to be more
desirable.
The characteristics of the two main types of retrofit
systems, including a description of the system, its
applicability, the expected emission reductions from its
implementation, and other considerations are discussed
below.
Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSAD). Two basic engine
modifications employed by motor vehicle manufacturers in
meeting Federal exhaust emission standards have been the
leaning of air/fuel ratios and the modification of
ignition(spark) timing. The modification of these
parameters in precontrolled (pre-1968) vehicles will reduce
carbon monoxide emissions by 9 percent, hydrocarbon
emissions by 25 percent, and nitrogen oxide emissions by 23
percent, resulting in a fuel penalty of up to 2 percent7.
Durability data developed by General Motors over 25,000
miles without maintenance show no deterioration in the
reduction of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides over time, but
do show approximately a 20 percent deterioration for carbon
monoxide. Because the 1968 model and newer vehicles have
utilized these modifications to some extent to meet Federal
emission standards, this retrofit technique is considered to
be applicable primarily to precontrolled vehicles, but not
to approximately 10 percent of those precontrolled vehicles
which do not employ vacuum spark advance.
Air Bleed to intake Manifold. Many devices have been
designed to introduce excess air in the fuel mixture prior
2-275
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to combustion by one means or another. The effect reduces
hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide with possibly some small.
increase in nitrogen oxide emissions. The reductions
achieved vary directly with the amount of air allowed into
the intake system. This technique is applicable to some
extent to all light-duty vehicles through the 1971 model
year, but because of the relatively lean air/fuel ratios on
most controlled vehicles, the technique is primarily
applicable to precontrolled vehicles (pre-1968>.
Tests conducted on this system for EPA indicate an expected
reduction of 23 percent for hydrocarbons and 50 percent for
carbon monoxide emissions with a fuel benefit up to 4
percent*. No significant effect on nitrogen oxide emissions
has been observed. Durability data on the system are not
adequate for judging the performance of this control
technique over an extended time frame.
SERVICE STATION VAPOR CONTROLS
Although the hydrocarbon vapors emitted to the atmosphere
from service stations cannot be considered in-use vehicle
exhaust emissions, the relationship between these vapor
losses and vehicle use is so directly related that their
control can legitimately be thought of as a transportation
control.
Gasoline is a volatile liquid that tends to evaporate at
ordinary ambient temperatures. The vapors thus created
become a significant source of hydrocarbon emissions and,
consequently, of photochemical oxidants. In some
metropolitan areas these vapors contribute as much as 15
percent of the total hydrocarbon emissions". Gasoline may
evaporate at any of the points at which it is stored or
handled and enter the atmosphere either through "breathing"
from vents in the storage tanks (at the bulk terminal, in
tanker trucks, at the service station, or in the automobile
tank) or during the process of transferring from or
refilling of each of these tanks.
The California Air Resources Board estimates that 23 pounds
of hydrocarbons are emitted for each thousand gallons of
motor fuel sold at stations in an uncontrolled situation; 11
pounds from transferring fuel from transport to station
storage; 11 pounds in moving fuel from storage to a car
tank; and 1 pound in "breathing" losses from underground
storage. A study by the Standard Oil of California reports
similar results*. The average service station sells
approximately 25,000 gallons of gasoline per month which
results in hydrocarbon emissions of 575 pounds per month.
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EPA estimates such emissions to be around 400 pounds per
station per month2,i<>,»i. By 1975, uncontrolled vapor
losses of this magnitude will make the service station as
significant a source of hydrocarbon emissions as some of the
vehicles it serves. When translated into grams per mile,
the hydrocarbon emissions from service stations exceed the
1977 new car hydrocarbon standards2.
Vapor Control Stages and Techniques. Service station vapor
losses result primarily from tank truck unloading (Staoe I)
and vehicle fueling (Stage II). The basic measurei to
reduce either the evaporation or subsequent emif.s on of
vapors to the atmosphere in Stage I include the following:
1. Floating roofs on large storage tanks. These devices
reduce the airspace above the liquid where evaporation
may occur.
2. Submerged filling of tanks. This allows new gasoline
to flow into the liquid already in the tank,
eliminating splashing which would otherwise increase
the amount of vapor.
3. Restrictions on vent pipes on the stationary storage
tanks. This technique limits the amount of "breathing"
which occurs through the vents.
4. Use of vapor return lines. This method allows vapors
in the tank being filled to be transferred back into
the tank from which the gasoline is being taken.
5. Secondary recovery systems. Carbon absorption or
refrigeration-condensation systems are used to
neutralize or reprocess the vapors that otherwise might
be emitted.
Of these control techniques^ submerged tank fill is required
for any new station storage container (in most regions) with
a capacity greater than 250 gallons, and any existing
container over 2,000 gallons. In addition, displaced vapors
must be either transferred back to the delivery vessel
through a vapor-tight return line, or they must be processed
on the location by a refrigeration-condensation system or
other appropriate system designed to recover or eliminate at
least 90 percent (by weight) of the organic compounds in the
displaced vapors. If the vapors are transferred to the
delivery vessel, such as a tanker truck, the tanker must be
refilled at facilities equipped with processing systems
(such as refrigeration-condensation, carbon absorption,
etc.) which can recover at least 90 percent of the organic
compounds in the vapors.
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On February 8, 1974, sources were required to submit control
plans to EPA for Stage I vapor recovery by June 1, 1974*2.
EPA has been unable to approve many control plans submitted
because sources failed to include sufficient information or
technical justification. Guidelines for Stage 1 vapor
recovery are being prepared by EPA and will be made
available to sources in the very near future. Therefore,
EPA postponed the date for sources to enter and sign
contracts for control systems and the date for sources to
initiate on-site construction or installation of control
equipment.
Stage II controls (recovery of vapors displaced during
refueling of automobiles) could theoretically make use of
any of the Stage I control techniques described above.
However, submerged fill, collapsible bladders (the small
scale equivalent of a floating roof), and carbon canisters
to absorb all vapors during fueling would require redesign
of present automobiles and are not being considered by EPA
for Stage II controls. Restrictions on vent pipes (often
including small carbon canisters on the vehicles) were
introduced to comply with the Federal Motor Vehicle Control
Program in the 1970 model year, although pre-1970 vehicles
have vent pipes open to the atmosphere. The remaining
control technique is the collection of vapors displaced
during fueling, and the subsequent processing of the vapors
through a vapor return line to the service station storage
tank.
Essentially two techniques have been developed for the
collection of vapors displaced from automobile tanks through
vapor return lines: simple displacement or "balance" and
vacuum-assist. After the vapors are collected, they can be
recovered or reprocessed either at the service station or at
the bulk terminal. Thus, recovery systems, such as carbon
absorption, refrigeration-condensation, or incineration, can
be installed either at the service station or at the bulk
terminal. A substantial controversy has recently arisen
over the effectiveness of simple displacement systems and
the reliability of vacuum-assist systems. Comment period on
the regulations was reopened, and EPA has postponed the
requirement for submission of control plans from June 1,
1974, to December 1, 1976, with the final compliance to be
achieved no later than May 31, 1977.
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Measures that Reduce Total
vehicle Miles Travelled
THE NEED FOR VMT REDUCTIONS
In the previous section, three measures to reduce emissions
per vehicle mile (in-use controls) were described, in this
section, a brief description of measures which reduce VMT is
presented.
The potential air quality benefits of in-use vehicle
controls is shown in Table 2-5. The table shows that if in-
use vehicle and stationary-source controls are fully
implemented by 1977, at least eight regions in 1980 and five
regions in 1985 are expected to fail to comply with oxidant
and/or carbon monoxide standards. Therefore, if further
control of motor vehicle emissions is necessary, reductions
in automobile use are required to comply with the air
quality standards.
Table 2-5.
Number of AQCR's Failing to Comply with Oxidant and/or
Carbon Monoxide Standard in Indicated Year*
Calendar Year
Conditions 1977 1980 1985
Without In-use 21-24 12-14 9-10
Vehicle Controls2
With In-use 12-17 8-10 5-10
Vehicle Controls'
i Ranges reflect uncertainty in degree of stationary-source
control that will be achieved. Air quality projections
are based on linear rollback for carbon monoxide and
Reference 13 for oxidant. Analysis excludes New York,
Deliver, and Fairbanks.
2 Control strategy consists of stationary-source controls
and Federal Motor Vehicle Emission Control Plan (FMVECP).
3 Control strategy consists of stationary-source controls,
FMVECP, inspection and maintenance, retrofit (including
catalyst retrofit), and vapor controls.
Source: Reference 2.
2-279
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In any particular AQCR, the adequacy of transportation
emission control strategies for achieving the national
ambient air quality standards will depend on the severity of
the air pollution problem within the region, the relative
contribution of mobile and stationary emission sources, and
the relative growth rates of these sources.
Thus, the extent of automobile use reductions will vary
substantially among the AQCR's in which they are needed.
Table 2-6 displays the distribution of automobile use
reductions (measured as vehicle miles of travel) necessary
to achieve nationwide compliance with the ambient air
quality standards in 1977 and 1985; the projected VMT
reductions needed in 1985 and beyond are highly uncertain.
This is due to their extreme sensitivity to a number of
parameters used in the projection calculation- namely, the
relative contributions of different emission sources, the
growth rates of these sources, and the extent of stationary-
source control achievable. Accordingly, a broad range of
the number of cities in each of two categories is shown; one
category shows the number of cities needing between zero and
25 percent VMT reductions, the other shows the number of
cities requiring VMT reductions greater than 25 percent.
The actual reductions needed by the cities in this latter
category will depend' primarily upon the degree of
stationary-source control that can be achieved in 1985.
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Table 2-6.
Number of AQCR's Requiring Automobile use Reduction to
Achieve Compliance with Qxidant and/or
Carbon Monoxide Standards*
Automobile Use Reduction
Calendar
Year Less than 10% 10%-30% 30%-50% 50% or more
1977 8 544
19852 0-25% 25% or more
6-8 4-6
* The VMT reductions estimated for each AQCR are based on
the additional control of motor vehicle emissions
required, assuming the regional I/M and retrofit programs
for in-use vehicles are fully implemented by 1977. Air
quality projections are based on linear rollback for
carbon monoxide and Reference 13 for oxidant. The number
of AQCR's whose current transportation control plans
include auto use reductions exceeds the number used here
because some plans have substituted VMT reduction for,
retrofit. Auto use reductions are expressed as percent
reductions in VMT.
z Ranges reflect uncertainty in the degree of stationary-
source control that will be achieved and the future growth
in automobile use. Source: Reference 2.
The automobile use projections, upon which the analyses
presented in Table 2-6 are based, reflect trends as of 1973.
Thus, nationwide automobile use (VMT) is projected to be
about 55 percent greater in 1985 than in 1972. This
projection assumes an increasing number of vehicles per
person and an increasing annual mileage per vehicle. If the
recent downward trend in automobile sales per person
continues for a number of years so that the number of
vehicles per person and the annual mileage per vehicle
remains constant through 1985, automobile use would be only
about 18 percent above current levels. This -represents a
VMT reduction of 25 percent from the projected baseline
assumed for Table 2-6 which reduces significantly the number
of AQCR's requiring VMT reductions to achieve compliance
with the standards.
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STRATEGIES TO REDUCE VMT
There are generally two strategies to achieve VMT
reductions:
• improvements in transit systems to encourage automobile
drivers to reduce trips.
• Incentives to increase the number of passengers per
automobile.
Transit Improvements. To attract significant numbers of
automobile drivers out of their cars, a transit system must
at least satisfy three conditions:
• It must have enough vehicles to carry the new riders.
• It must provide service whose quality is comparable or
superior to that of the automobile. The most important
component of service quality is travel time.
• Its cost to the rider must be attractive relative to
the cost of operating an automobile.
An example of the relationship between travel time, cost,
and transit ridership for work trips is illustrated in
Figure 2-1, which is based upon the results of a study of
travel behavior in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania**. The
variables included in the figure are the time required to
walk to and from the transit stop, the difference between
automobile and transit travel times, the difference between
automobile and transit costs, and the percentage of work
trips taking place by transit. The importance of the time
and cost variables in determining transit ridership can be
illustrated by considering the case where transit and
automobile travel times and costs are equal (Point A of
Figure 2-1). The figures indicate that 66 percent of work
trips would take place by transit, in constrast, average
work-trip transit ridership in the United States is
currently less than 15 percent.
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Figure 2-1.
Dependence of work-Trip Transit Ridership on Service Quality
160
140
120
100
B
« 80
I
60
40
20
WALK TIME =5MW.
WALK TIME =10MIN.
WALK TIME = 0
WALK TIME = 5MIN.
WALK TIME =10MIN,
-10 -50 5 10 15
TRANSIT TIME - AUTOMOBILE (MINUTES)
20
LEGEND:
AUTO COST = TRANSIT FARE
AUTO COST "TRANSIT FARE + $2.00
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In practice, it is unlikely that a transit system can offer
widespread service which is as fast as that of the
automobile. A more realistic example of a high-quality
transit system is illustrated by' Point B of Figure 2-1.
Here t the walk time is five minutes, transit travel time
exceeds automobile travel time by 10 minutes, and the
transit fare and automobile cost are equal; transit
ridership is 21 per'cent. If the walk and travel times
remain unchanged and the automobile costs $2.00 per work
trip more than transit owing to free transit, parking
charges, or other'reasons, transit ridership for work trips
increases to about 90 percent (Point C).
The reductions in the combined emissions of automobiles and
transit vehicles thus achieved depend on the kinds of
transit vehicles used, and the design and operation of the
transit system. For example, if diesel buses meeting the
California 1975 heavy-duty diesel emission standards are
used and these buses carry an average load of 20 passengers,
the reductions in combined bus'and automobile emissions are
roughly 30 percent for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons and
15 percent for nitrogen oxides in 1977. In 1985, when
automobile emissions will be less than in 1977, the carbon
monoxide and hydrocarbon reductions are 20 percent and 25
percent, respectively. However, nitrogen oxide emissions
increase by about 20 percent; this increase would be
eliminated if an average bus occupancy of 30 passengers were
achieved.
These quantitative results are approximate because of their
reliance on a single behavioral study and rather crude
Measures of trip characteristics. However, the conclusion
that a high-quality transit system can attract high levels
of ridership is also supported by the experience of existing
high-quality transit operations, such as the Shirley Highway
Express in the Washington, D.C. area»s.
Most transit systems in the United States do not provide the
high-quality service needed to attract high ridership. For
example, nearly 50 percent of urban area residences are
located three or more blocks from the nearest transit stop.
Transit routes are heavily downtown-oriented, but only about
1O percent of the trips go downtown. Transit trips take
nearly 'twice as long as automobile trips. Moreover,
subsidized free or reduced rate parking confers a cost
advantage, on the automobile. Transit service of this
quality is illustrated by Point D of Figure 2>-l, indicating
a ridership of 4 percent.
Carpools. Average automobile occupancy in the United States
is about two persons per car. Average occupancy for work
2-284
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trips is about 1.4 persons per car16. Since most cars are
capable of carrying at least four persons, there is
considerable room for reducing automobile use and emissions
through carpooling. The principal obstacle to carpooling is
that carpools are highly restrictive in terms of the service
offered. Carpoolers must have trip origins and destinations
that are close to one another, must travel at the same time,
and, to minimize the problems of locating carpool partners',
must make trips that are repetitive from day-to-day. As a
result, the greatest potential for increased carpool use is
in connection with peak-period work trips. These trips are
responsible for about 25 percent of urban area automobile
emissions*7.
The present automobile low occupancy rates for work trips
indicate that substantial cajrpooling will not take place
unless certain measures are implemented to encourage it.
The limited experience to date with carpool programs has
provided indications of the effectiveness of two possible
approaches to encouraging carpools:
• Preferential treatment for carpools on streets and
freeways.
• Parking restrictions combined with locator systems.
Preferential treatment for carpools has been observed to
increase peak-period automobile occupancies by 10 to 30
percent18. Locator systems combined with parking
restrictions appear capable of doubling occupancies for
downtown peak-period work trips to suburban locations1'. If
these preliminary indications are confirmed by future
experience, programs to encourage carpooling should be
capable of reducing total urban area automobile emissions by
5 to 10 percent.
Carpooling and transit systems appear to be competitive, not
complementary, approaches to reducing automobile use. Both
approaches operate most easily in connection with peak-
period work trips to high density areas, and transit system
improvements tend to attract passengers from their carpools.
It is therefore unlikely that the effects of high-quality
transit systems and carpooling on automobile use will be
additive. For example, if transit system improvements alone
can achieve a 15 percent reduction in automobile use and
carpooling alone can achieve a 10 percent reduction, the
automobile use reduction obtained from implementing both
approaches together is likely to be greater than 15 percent
but less than 25 percent.
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TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES
TO REDUCE VMT
In this section, specific VMT reduction measures considered
by the states, localities, and EPA in developing TCP's will
be briefly explained.
Bus and Carpool Priority Treatment. Priority treatment for
buses and carpools consists of allocating highway facilities
preferentially to these vehicles for the purpose of
increasing their average speeds. The usefulness of bus
priority treatment in attracting automobile drivers to use
the transit is dependent on the quality of the transit
system or subsystem that uses priority treatment. Hence, in
areas where bus priority treatment is included in a TCP, the
measure is a part of an integrated transit improvement
program. For example, in the Washington, D.C. area,
priority treatment is used in combination with bus fleet
expansion, the addition of new transit routes, and improved
bus scheduling.
Carpooling Programs. Many TCP's include measures that
provide computerized carpool matching programs and
preferential carpool treatment programs. The matching
programs provide for the formation of carpools, and the
preferential treatment programs provide incentives, such as
free parXing, to encourage carpools.
Computerized carpool locator programs have been established
in cities such as Washington, D.C., Boston, Massachusetts,
Knoxville, Tennesse, and Omaha, Nebraska.
Employer Transit Incentive Regulations. Employer incentive
regulations applicable in several metropolitan areas require
major employers to implement measures that encourage the use
of carpools and mass transit, while at the same time
discouraging the use of single-passenger automobiles for
work-related commuting. Under this approach, the employer
has the flexibility to develop his own plan to minimize the
impact of his facility on the area's VMT. The concept is
based on already existing programs that have been developed
by employers to discourage energy-inefficient commuting
habits. In addition, many employers have voluntarily
started such programs to avoid the acquisition of land for
additional parking facilities. Companies, such as Minnesota
Mining and Manufacturing and Aerospace Corporation of El
Segundo, California, have already illustrated the
effectiveness of this approach in reducing commuter
automobile usage.
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Parking Programs. Parking management programs are used in
several TCP's to complement the improvement of mass
transportation and carpooling alternatives. The
transportation plans include two general types of parking
regulations: on-street parking controls and parking
management programs. The on-street parking controls are
similar to common regulations in various cities to prevent
congestion and to discourage commuter parking on public
streets.
The States are encouraged to develop their own area-vide
parking facility plans. These plans should focus on the
interrelationship of transportation alternatives and new
parking facilities. The plans should set forth the manner
in which the location, operation, and increase in the number
of parking-related facilities would be kept consistent with
the air quality needs throughout the area. The plans could
also ensure that the new facilities complemented rather than
competed with existing and developing transit facilities.
Several areas, such as San Diego, Los Angeles, Portland, and
Seattle, have begun such plans for parking restrictions as a
traffic control approach.
Transit Expansion and Development. The improvement and
expansion of mass transit facilities is one of the key
elements for the success of transportation plans. Bus fleet
expansion will allow service to be upgraded in several major
respects:
• Existing routes can offer more frequent service.
• New routes can be established to allow more people the
opportunity of transit.
• Older, uncomfortable vehicles can be replaced with
smoother riding, air-conditioned vehicles.
Within the last two years, many areas have established
programs to improve and upgrade existing transit systems.
Therefore, in the near future many areas will begin to offer
the type of alternative transit that is required to help
achieve the required VMT reductions. An example of the type
of improvement which can effect a reduction in VMT is the
Seattle "Magic Carpet" program. City-wide fare reductions
along with free fares within the CBD were associated with a
fleet expansion and exclusive bus lanes. The increased
ridership will, help Seattle achieve the VMT reductions
necessary to meet the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards.
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Sufficient Federal funding is necessary if areas are to
expand transit systems to the level necessary to provide
assistance in achieving the VMT reduction goals contained in
the plans. EPA has been working with DOT to assure the
availability of such funding. in addition, states and
localities must be willing to increase their support for
mass transit. ideas such as using sales tax revenues for
capital and operating expenses and therefore stabilizing
fares have been successfully implemented in Atlanta,
Georgia. Other areas must continue to provide the necessary
local commitment if expanded mass transit is to become a
reality.
Parking Surcharge and Parking Fees. The use of surcharges on
commercial rates for parking both discourages non-carpool
commuting and provides a source of financing for transit
improvements. The measure can help bring about a
significant change in urban driving habits vith a minimum of
social disruption if the fees are properly formulated and
integrated with transit improvements. The program offers a
wide latitude of individual choice to the driver. Those
whose needs or preferences are strongly in favor of using
the single passenger automobile may continue to do so,
although at a somewhat higher cost; those who can easily
adapt to other modes of transit or a carpool will have the
incentive to take such action. The Energy Supply and
Environmental Control Coordination Act of June 1974 (P.L.
93-319) forbids the EPA from promulgating surcharges.
Gasoline Supply Limitations. Gasoline supply limitations
are, at least in theory, one of the most effective methods
of reducing VMT. At the time the TCP's were first proposed,
gasoline supply limitations were considered to be included
in several plans. Two types of regulations were proposed:
1. A gasoline supply lid would have become effective
during 1974 or 1975, which would have limited the
quantity of gasoline sold in an area to fiscal 1973
levels.
2. A regulation, which would be implemented on May 31,
1977, would reduce an area's gasoline supply and thus
VMT to the extent necessary to achieve the ambient air
quality standards.
The gasoline supply lid was dropped as a primary control
measure by EPA at the time the plans were finally
promulgated. The determination not to include gasoline
supply lids as a "reasonably attainable" alternative was
based upon the comments received during the public hearings
held on each plan and the Agency's evaluation of the
2-288
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feasibility of implementing and administering an effective
program. Moreover, possibilities of. evasion, the likelihood
of noncompliance, and the difficulty of. enforcement appeared
too great to make this measure praticable.
However, the gasoline supply reduction to be implemented on
May 31, 1977, has been retained in plans for severa-1 areas.
In these areas, this measure was included as a final resort
measure to fulfill the statutory requirement that a plan
must achieve the ambient air quality standards by 1977. In
each of these areas, even with additional stationary-source
controls, inspection and maintenance programs, reasonable
VMT control measures, and retrofit strategies, additional
•VMT reductions were necessary to demonstrate attainment' of
the standards. As the EPA Administrator has stated on
several occasions, this measure has been included in these
plans to meet, the technical requirements of the law, and the
EPA does not intend to implement this measure unless it is
leagally required to do so. EPA has submitted a proposed
amendment to the Clean Air Act which would allow additional
flexibility in these heavily impacted areas.
ADDITIONAL VMT REDUCTION MEASURES
Several other measures were considered and accepted or
rejected for use in TCP's. Measures used by the states or
EPA to a limited extent include bicycle lane programs,
vehicle-free zones, selective vehicle exclusion strategies,
and gasoline truck delivery bans. Of thesef the first two
measures are being implemented on a limited basis, such as
the bicycle lane program now underway in Denver, Colorado,
and the vehicle-free zones in Springfield, Massachusetts,
the Camden-Trenton area of New Jersey, and Salt Lake City,
Utah. The last two measures (selective vehicle exclusion
and gasoline truck delivery bans) were considered for
implementation but were rejected.
Costs of Transportation
Control Plans
This section estimates the aggregate- costs to the motor
vehicle owners of implementing TCP's. In order to estimate
aggregate costs for the: period 1976-85, costs of
implementing, various transportation control measures at each
AQCR have been computed. Table 2-7 presents the list of
AQCR's .which will implement specific measures that will
reduce emissions per VMT; the table also describes the
geographic and model year coverage of each measure.
2-289
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Table 2-7.
List of AQCR's which Will implement Measures to
Reduce Emissions Per vehicle Mile of Travel
AQCR
Boston
aprlnetield
NY-NJ-Coon.
Philadelphia
Southwest
Peon.
Baltimore
Hull. Capitol
Chicago
Indianapolis
CisoinB&ti
San Antonio
Houston -
GalVBCton
Denver
Pboenlz-
faoata
Wasatoh
Front
Los Angela*
San
Francisco
Sta Diego
f/M
Test
Idle
Idle
Idle
Loaded
Idle
Idle
Idle
Hie
Idle
Idle
Idle
SB»
Idle
Idle
Idls
Idle
Loadod
Idle
Lojd$i
Lotidec
T AfirfaH
Ownership
Private
Public
Public
Public
Private
Public
Private
Private
Public
Private
Public
Private
Public
Private
Private
•public
Public
Public
Public
Public
Public
Area
Covered
AQCR
Springfield
SMSA
N.J. part
of AQCR
N.Y. SMSA
Peon, part
of AQCR
N.J. part
of AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
Va. part of
AQCR
D.C. &MD
part of
AQCR
CookCty.
inc.
Chicago
Marion Co.
Hamilton
County
Hotel
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
Note 2
AQCR
AQCR
AQCH
Retrofit
V8AD
Vehicle
Year
Pre-68
Pre-«8
Pre-fl8
Pre-68
Prv-64
195S-65
195S-8
1955-6
Area
Covered
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
Air Bleed
Vehicle
Year
968-71
Pre-71
Pre-flS
Pre-71
1968-71
Marios
Co.
Pr»-«a
Pre-68
Pre-68
Area
Covered
AQCR
N.J. part of
AQCR
Pern, part
ofPhtla.
SMSA
N.J. part of
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
Phoenix 4
SMSA'e
AQCR
Tooele Co.
-ssvc
tages
i *n
i in
i in
i
i in
i an
i
IAD
ita
i tn
i in
Tin
tin
Area,
Covered
AQCR
N.J. part of
AQCR
N.J. part of
AQCR
Allegheny
County
AQCR
AQCR
Marion
County
San Antonio
County
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
AQCB
14OTE8: 1 San Antonio SMSA and Kendall, Medina, Wttson, Ataacoaa, Comal Counties.
S Ogdea, Salt Lake City, Provo- Orem SMSA's.
5 Boston and Houston - Galvestoo AQCR's have recently cancelled retrofit programs. Also, tha
EPA Is presently considering the promulgation of I/M measures for Dallas-Fort Worth.
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Table 2-7. (Continued)
List of AQCR's Which Will implement Measures to
Reduce Emissions Per vehicle Mile of Travel
AQCH
Sacrum ento
San Joaquln
Puget
Portland
East Wash-
ington,
Idaho
Northern
Alaska
Austtn-
Waco
Dallaa- Ft.
Worth
El Paso
I/M
Test
Type
Loaded
Loaded
Hie
Idle
Idle
Idle
Ownership
Public
Public
Private
Public
Private
Public
Area
Covered
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
Portland
SMSA
Spokane
SMSA
City of
Fairbanks
4 North
Star-
Borough
Retrofit
VSAD
Vehicle
Tear
1955-65
1858-65
Area
Covered
AQCH
AQCR
Air Bleed
Vehicle
Tear
Pre-68
Pre-68
Pre-68
Pre-68
Area
Covered
AQCR
Oregon part
of AQCR
Spokane
SMSA
AQCR
-ssvc
Stages
i in
its
I.
i&a
i&a
Area
Covered
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
AQCR
El Paso
SMSA &
Texas
Counties
of AQCR
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INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS
Analysis of the inspection and maintenance program costs has
been limited to the programs operating in Chicago and Hew
Jersey. In both instances, the programs make use of idle
mode tests, and the inspection stations are state owned and
operated. Reference 11 presents a. description of these
inspection programs as well as estimated fixed and operating
costs for a publicly owned and operated emissions inspection
program. A brief description of the assumptions used in
estimating costs of inspection and maintenance programs
follows. Cost elements have been computed by the EPA Office
of Land Use and Transportation Policy, based on data
provided by Northrop/01 sen Corporationzo, The City of
Chicago2*, and the State of Arizona", It is assumed that
the inspection facilities would be either publicly or
privately owned and operated with the needed maintenance of
rejected automobiles performed at privately owned garages or
repair facilities. The number of inspection lanes required
is computed from the projected light-duty vehicle population
for that area for the year of program implementation an
-------
• Test type (loaded versus idle)
• Geographic location which determines the total site
cost.
Table 2-9 presents the summary of costs assumed per two-lane
station. Reference 11 gives the detailed breakdown of the
cost estimate. The second cost area in the program is the
maintenance of failed vehicles. An average tune-up cost of
$30 per failed vehicle, of which $15 is assumed to be
attributable to the inspection and maintenance measure, is
considered. Vehicles that fail the emissions inspection and
subsequently are tuned are expected to incur fuel savings.
The extent of annual fuel savings from the program is
dependent on the failure rate among other things. EPA's
Office of Transportation and Land Use Policy estimates that
on the basis of recent data the following relationship
exists between the failure rate and annual fuel savings for
serviced vehicles.- Y = 31.5x~<>. s**, where x=percent failure
rate and Y^annual fuel savings, expressed in percents, for
serviced vehicles. Fleet-wide dollar savings are computed
for each AQCR by computing the fuel saving rate from the
above equation and assuming an annual vehicle use of 10,000
miles, a fuel consumption rate of 13.58 miles per gallon,
and a price of gasoline of $0.75 per gallon.
Based on the inspection cost estimates given in Table 2-8
and the maintenance cost and fuel savings assumptions
outlined above, the annual inspection and maintenance fixed
and operating costs for each AQCR have been computed for the
years 1976-85. The summary annual costs for the United
States are presented in Table 2-9. As shown in the table,
the fuel savings more than offset the costs of the
inspection and maintenance program, and in fact, result in
an overall net benefit, even after considering all TCP
costs.
2-293
-------
Table 2-8.
Fixed and Operating Cost of a Two-Lane Inspection Station
to
vo
Cost Category
Capital Costs
Equipment
• Instrumentation
« Automated System
• Dynamometer
Installation Costs
Site costs'
Construction Costs'
Administration and Miscellaneous1
. Contingencies'
Total Capital Costs
Annual Costs:
Annual Capital Costs"
Operating Costs
• Salaries*
• Supplies
» Administrative Support and Overhead
Total Annual Costs
Loaded
(In 1975 Dollars)
Publ 1.c Private
Idle Idle
$11,870
14,850
6.4OO
5,000
14,OOO-14O,OOO
35.0OO
3,000
4.50O-10.80O
$94,620-226,920
$17,064-30,974
64.OOO
2,940
33,060
$117,064-130,974
$11,87O $11,870
14.85O 0
O 0
3.QOO 6.OOO
14,OOO-140,OOO 6
35.0OO 0
3, OOO 3, OOO
4,O9O-7,OOO 1,040
$85,81O:214,720 21,910
$15,63O-28,9O7 $6,077
64,OOO 64.OOO
2,940 2,940
33.OGO 33,060
$1 15.63O-128.9O7 $106,077
1 Administrative and miscellaneous costs are assumed to be $3,OOO per station for the first year.
1 Unforeseen contingency costs are calculated as 5 percent of the total cost for equipment, instal
latlon, land, construction, and administration.
3 14.OOO Square feet at $1.OO to $1O.OO per square foot.
* 2.5OO Square feet at $14.OO per square foot. For private stations It is assumed that present
facilities will be adequate to house the small amount of equipment needed for inspection.
5 Assuming an economic life of 4O years for land and 1O years for other capital costs at 1O
percent annual Interest and with zero scrap value. The administrative and miscellaneous costs
which are incurred for the first year only are assumed to be non-depreciable.
• One supervisor at $16,OOO and 5 Inspectors at $9,6OO each per year.
-------
Table 2-9.
Aggregate Cost . (Benefit) of Inspection and Maintenance Programs, 1976-85
(In Millions of 1975 DoUars)
•s
en
Year
1976
1977
1978
1979
198O
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Totals
Capital Annual 1 zed
Investment Capital Stati<
(1)
141
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
171
Costs (2) Costs
.9
.4
.3
.7
.8
.6
.2
.O
.4
.O
.3
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
21
22
2O3
.4
.8
.2
.7
.2
.6
.0
.4
.8
.2
,3
1O4
1O3
1O6
1O9
111
114
116
118
121
123
1,129.
.4
.8
.4
. 1
.9
.0
.4
.6
. 1
.4
. 1
Operating & Maintenance (0/M)
Costs
Owners'
Station 0/M Maintenance Savings
> Cost (4)
186.0
19O.8
195.5
2OO.3
2O5.2
2O9.6
214,2
218.7
223.4
228.1
Fuel
Sav 1 ngs
(5)
385.9
395.7
405.5
415.5
425.6
434.7
444. 0
453.3
462.9
472.5
Net 0/M
(6)
(3+4-S)
(95.5)
(101.1)
(1O3.6)
(1O6.1)
(1O8.5)
(111.1)
(113.4)
(116. O)
(118.4)
(121.0)
Annual
Costs (7)
(2+6)
(77.1)
(82.3)
(84,4)
(86.4)
(88.3)
(90. S)
(92.4)
(94.6)
(96.6)
(98.8)
Cumu 1 a-t 1 ve
(8)
(77.1)
( 159.4)
(243.8)
(33O.2)
(418.5)
(5O9.0)
(6O1 .4)
(696.0)
( 792 . 6 )
(891.4)
2,071.8
4,295.6
(1,094.7)
(891.4)
-------
RETROFIT PROGRAMS
vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSADK VSAD retrofits are
mainly applicable to pre-1967 vehicles as shown in
Table 2-7. It is assumed that the installation cost of a
VSAD retrofit would be approximately $20.00 per vehicle, and
it is estimated that the annual maintenance cost would be
approximately $5.00 per vehicle. VSAD retrofits are
expected to increase fuel use from 0 to 2 percent, which
translates to a maximum annual fuel penalty of $11.2.5 per
vehicle, assuming a fuel consumption rate of 750 gallons at
$0.75 per gallon.
Air Bleed. The 11 AQCR's that will be implementing air-bleed
retrofit programs are listed in Table 2-7. Air bleed
devices are primarily applicable to pre-1968 vehicles
although some areas, such as Baltimore and Boston, extend
the applicability to 1971 model year vehicles. The
installation cost of an air bleed retrofit is assumed to be
$40 per vehicle for simple air bleed devices and $55 per
vehicle for air bleed devices with exhaust gas recirculation
(EGR). It is further assumed that the life of the devices
is 5 years, necessitating replacement of the equipment after
that period at the same cost. However, air bleed devices
are expected to increase the fuel economy by approximately 4
percent. This fuel economy benefit translates to $22.50 per
year per vehicle. Therefore, the net benefit over the 5
year life of the units would be $72.00 per vehicle with a
simple air bleed device and $57.50 per vehicle with an air
bleed/EGR device.
Summary Costs of Retrofits. The summary aggregate costs of
the retrofit programs for 1976 through 1985 are presented in
Table 2-10.
2-296
-------
Table 2-1O.
Summary Costs of Retrofit Programs, 1976-85
k
^
Retrofit Program
VSAD
Cumulative
Air Bleed
Cumulative
Totals
Cumulative
1976'
34.
34.
34
34
,5
.5
.5
.5
1977
27.
61.
69.
69.
96.
130.
O
.4
2
2
2
.7
1978
13
75
(46
22
(32
98
.9
.4
.4)'
.8
.5)
.2
(In
1979
10.
85.
(33.
(10,
(23
75
2
.6
.4)
.6)
.2)
.0
Mil 1 ions
198O
7.
93.
(23,
(34,
(15
59
8
.4
5)
.1)
.7)
.3
of 1975 Dol lars)
1981 1982
6
1OO
(16
(5O
(9
49
.6
.O
-1)
.2)
.5)
.8
6.
1O6.
12.
(38
18
68
3
3 •
, 1
.1)
.4
.2
1983
6.
112
(8.
(46
(1
66
.3
.6
.1)
.2)
.8)
.4
1984
6
118
(7
(53
(0
65
.3
.9
.1)
.3)
.8)
.6
1985
6.3
125.2
(6.5)
(59.8)
(0.2)
65.4
1 Only California AQCR's will implement VSAD in 1976.
' Numbers in parentheses indicate negative value, i.e., economies gained by implementation of
these retrofits.
-------
SERVICE STATION VAPOR CONTROLS
The recent controversy about the Stage II Vapor Control
Systems (simple balance and vacuum-assist) creates
uncertainty as to the type of system which will be
implemented. The installation cost of a vacuum-assist
system is significantly higher than the simple displacement
system. Using the simple balance method, costs per station
may run between $2,000 (for a new station) and $5,000 (for
existing stations) for the required equipment labor.
Vacuum-assist equipment costs anywhere from one and a half
to two times as much. For a 75,000 gallon per month service
station, the University of California, San Diego, estimates
the investment costs at $6,727 and $14,681 for simple
balance and vacuum-assist systems, respectively.23
In estimating the investment and operating cost of service
station vapor control systems, it is assumed that for Stage
II controls, one-third of the systems implemented will be
simple balance and two-thirds will be vacuum-assist. Based
on EPA's most recent data, the investment and operating
costs of the systems are assumed to be as follows:
Blower- Simple
Assist Displacement
Investment
Service station component
(Stage II) $12,000 $8,000
Support facilities component
(Stage I) 1,300 1,300
Total per station $13,300 $9,300
Operating costs per station
per year $ 556 $ 556
For Stage I systems, a fuel savings benefit of $594 would
result, assuming 90 percent efficiency in recovering 880
gallons per station at $0-75 per gallon. For Stage II, the
fuel savings benefit would be $495 for simple balance
systems, assuming 75 percent recovery, and $627 for vacuum-
assist systems, assuming 95 percent recovery. Table 2-11
presents the summary costs of service station vapor controls
for the 10-year period.
2-298
-------
Table 2-11.
Aggregate Costs of Service Station Vapor control
Programs, 1976-85
Annual Costs (In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
Year Fixed Operating Total Cumulative
1977 $46.4 $(14.2) $32.2 32.2
1978 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 64.4
1979 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 96.6
1980 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 128.8
1981 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 161.0
1982 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 193.2
1983 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 225.4
1984 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 257.6
1985 46.4 (14.2) 32.2 289.8
SUMMARY COSTS
Table 2-12 shows the summary costs associated with measures
that will reduce emissions per vehicle mile. Table 2-13
shows the breakdown between capital costs and operating and
maintenance costs for each control program for the period
from 1976 to 1985.
Approximately 90 percent of the total cost for reducing
emissions per vehicle mile is attributable to the inspection
and maintenance programs. Several factors account for the
large costs of inspection and maintenance relative to
retrofit and service station vapor controls. Perhaps the
most significant is the annual operating cost, which is
estimated to be $100,000 per station. Furthermore, because
of the random vehicle arrivals for inspection, it is assumed
that the stations will be idle 40 percent of the time and
therefore they will not operate at optimum capacity. This
idle factor obviously offers some potential for economy and
reduction of overall costs; however, the amount of idle time
that could be utilized is indeterminable at this time.
A second factor that contributes to the large cost of
inspection and maintenance programs is that essentially
every vehicle in the control area must submit to the
inspection, and those that fail will require maintenance and
reinspection, whereas retrofit systems usually apply only to
a small portion of the total number of vehicles. Finally,
retrofit and service station vapor control cost estimates
2-299
-------
include some partially compensatory economies, whereas no
fuel economies are considered for inspection and maintenance
programs.
2-300
-------
to
U!
O
Table 2-12.
Summary of Costs for Measures that Reduce Emissions Per Vehicle Mile
Annual Costs (In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
Measure
Inspect ion/
Maintenance (I/M)
I/M Fuel Savings
Net I/M Costs
Retrofit
Service Station
Vapor Control
Net TCP Costs
Cumuiat1ve
Note: Totals in this table differ somewhat from totals in other tables because of rounding.
Source: Tables, 2-9, 2-1O, and 2-11.
1976
309
(386)
(77)
35
--
(42)
(42)
1977
313
(396)
(83)
96
32
45
3
1978
321
(406)
(85)
(33)
32
(86)
(83)
1979
329
(416)
(87)
(23)
32
(78)
(161)
1980
337
(427)
(90)
(16)
32
(74)
(235)
1981
344
(435)
(91)
(10)
32
(69)
(304)
1982
352
(444)
(92)
18
32
(42)
(346)
1983
359
(453)
(95)
(2)
32
(65)
(411)
1984
366
(463)
(97)
(D
32
(66)
(477)
1985
374
(473)
(39)
O
32
(67)
(544)
-------
u»
o
Table 2-13,
Investment and Operating Maintenance Costs for Measures
Which Reduce Emissions Per Vehicle Mile Travelled 1976-85
(In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
Total Program
Costs
Retrofit
VSAD
Air Bleed
Subtotal
Inspection/
Maintenance
Service Station
Vapor Controls
Totals
$125.
(59.
$ 65.
($891.
289.
($536.
2
8)
4
4)
8
2)
Operating and
Investment Maintenance
Costs Costs
$ 22
153
$175
$2O3
285
$663
. 1
.4
.5
.3
. 1
.9
$1O3
(213
$(110
$3,2OO
4
$3,O95
. 1
.2)
.1)
.9
.7
.5
Fuel
Savings'
($4,295.6)
($4.295.6)
Because the fuel savings associated with the inspection and maintenance measure have such a
sizeable impact on overall TCP costs, they are broken out separately.
-------
COST OF IMPLEMENTING MEASURES
THAT REDUCE VMT
The implementation of measures to reduce automobile
emissions by reducing VMT will affect many aspects of urban
activity other than air quality. Some non-air quality
aspects are:
• Energy consumption. Transit systems are considerably
more energy efficient than the automobile. Bus transit
uses approximately 3,600 Btu's per passenger mile
compared to 8,000 Btu's in work trips by automobile.
Therefore, reduction in automobile use achieved by
diverting automobile travelers to transit buses will
reduce energy consumption. Reductions in automobile
use achieved through carpooling will also result in
energy savings that are approximately proportional to
VMT reductions.
• Transportation noise. The diversion of automobile
travelers to public transit appears to be capable of
reducing exposure to highway-generated noise. A study
of the 1-66 corridor near Washington, D.C., indicates
that the transit option decreases exposure to elevated
noise levels by 10 to 20 percent, depending on the
noise level, whereas the highway option increases
exposure to noise by as much as 47 percent.2*
• Traffic safety. Transit buses have roughly one
fatality per 100 million passenger miles25 compared to
about 1.6 fatalities per 100 million passenger miles
for automobiles in urban areas.2*^27 BUS accident costs
per passenger mile are roughly two-thirds those of
automobiles.2»,2»
• Traffic congestion and highway construction. Buses
require roadway space of less than 2 automobiles, but
carry up to 50 times as many passengers per vehicle as
automobiles. Thus, the diversion of automobile drivers
to public transit as well as to carpools will reduce
traffic volumes and congestion. Furthermore, reduced
congestion will result in reduced need for further
highway construction.
• Travel times. Transit buses require more time than the
automobile for access, collection, and distribution.
These transit time disadvantages can be offset by the
use of express bus routes and priority treatment for
transit vehicles, Carpools have also a time
disadvantage relative to the single-occupant
automobile. This diadvantage is incurred during
2-303
-------
collection and distribution and, as in the case of bus
transit, it can be offset to some extent by the
provision of priority treatment.
Many of the non-air quality effects listed above are
beneficial and would make the implementation of the control
measures desirable even if air quality were not a problem.
Indeed, the transportation measures that have been proposed
to improve air quality have also been proposed to alleviate
non-air quality related urban transportation problems.
There has been little direct experience with many
transportation control measures or with changes in
transportation system attributes of the magnitude
contemplated in some TCP's. Certain types of costs, i.e.,
those associated with the changes in urban land use due to
transportation control measures in this category, are
particularly difficult to estimate.30 Another source of
difficulty stems from the joint benefits derived from
transportation control measures. Although costs for a
transit improvement program could be estimated with
reasonable accuracy, it would be imappropriate to assign the
full cost to the cause of achieving air quality. Other non-
air quality benefits should share an appropriate portion of
the total cost. Another source of difficulty of estimating
costs of transportation control measures is that these costs
are highly dependent on the specific control measures
implemented and the manner and area in which they are
implemented. Finally, AQCR's have not yet specified the
specific VMT measures they will adopt. For these reasons,
the costs of transportation control measures related to
reductions in VMT are not estimated in this report.
2-304
-------
References
1. "National Primary and Secondary Ambient. Air Quality
Standards", Federal Register, Vol. 36, No. 84, Part II,
April 30, 1971.
2. "Transportation Controls to Reduce Automobile Use and
improve Air Quality in cities: The Needs, the Options,
and Effects on Urban Activity", Report by U.S.
Environmental protection Agency, to the U.S. Congress,
November 18, 1974.
3. "Final Report on the Cost of Clean Air", Battelle's
Columbus Laboratories, to U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Contract No. 68-01-1538, January 15, 1974.
4. "inspection and Maintenance of Light-Duty, Gasoline-
Powered Motor vehicles: A Guide for Implementation",
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, August 1974.
5. "Transportation Controls for Reducing Air Pollution",
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, February 21,
1974.
6. Federal Register, vol. 38, No. 110, June 8, 1973.
7. "Control Strategies for In-Use Vehicles", U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, November 1972.
8- Federal Register, Vol. 39, NO. 118, June 18, 1974.
9. "'Must Do1 Systems Will cost $1,000,000,000", National
Petroleum News, October 1974.
10. "The Clean Air Act and Transportation Controls: An EPA
White Paper", U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
August 19710.
11. Cronin, F. J., "An Economic Analysis of Transportation
Control Measures to Reduce Automotive Related
Pollutants", U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
September 1974.
12- Federal Register, vol. 39, February 8, 1974.
13. Schuck, E. A., and Papetti, R., "Examination of the
Photochemical Air Pollution Problem in Southern
California", In: "Technical Support Document for the
Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate Air Quality Control
2-305
-------
Plan", Appendix D, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, October 30, 1973.
14. "A Disaggregated Behavioral Model of Urban Travel
Demand", prepared by Charles River Associates, Inc.,
for the Federal Highway Administration under Contract
NO. FM-11-7566, March 1972.
15. "Additions and Revisions to the implementation Plan for
the Control of Carbon Monoxide, Nitrogen oxides,
Hydrocarbons, and Photochemical Oxidants for the
District of Columbia Portion of the National Capitol
interstate Air Quality control Region", prepared by the
Government of the District of Columbia and the National
Capitol interstate Air Quality Planning Committee,
April 1973.
16. Strate, H.E., "Automobile Occupancy", Nationwide
Personal Transportation Survey, U.S. Department of
Transportation, Report No. 1, April 1972.
17. Horowitz, J. I., and Pernela, L. M., "Comparison of
Automobile Emissions According to Trip Type in TWO
Metropolitan Areas", U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, May 1974.
18. "Freeway Lanes for High Occupancy Vehicles- Third
Annual Progress Report", State of California, Business
and Transportation Agency, December 1973.
19. Pratsch, L,, "Carpool and Buspool Matching Guide", U.S.
Department of Transportation, February 1973.
20. "Mandatory Vehicle Emissions Inspection and
Maintenance: Technical and Economic Feasibility
Analysis", Northrop/Olson corporation, Vol. Ill, Part
A, 1971.
21. "vehicle Emission Testing Program Final Report, Concept
and Criteria", Personal communication from the
Department of Public works, City of Chicago, to
Northrop/Olson, February 1973.
22. "Technical Report: The Motor Vehicle Emissions
inspection Program", The State of Arizona, January
1974.
23. "Technical Review and Evaluation of Vapor control
Systems", University of California at San Diego,
Department of Applied Mechanics and Engineering
Sciences, 1974.
2-306
-------
24. Howard, Needles, Tammen, and Bergendorff, "1-66
Corridor Transportation Alternatives Study-Draft
Environment Section 4(f) Statement", prepared for the
Virginia Department of Highways, November 1973.
25. Wells, J. D., ejt al., "Economic Characteristics of the
Urban Public Transportation industry", prepared for the
Department of Transportation by the Institute for
Defense Analysis, February 1972.
26. "1973/74 Automobile Facts and Figures", Motor vehicle
. Manufacturers Association, Detroit, Michigan.
27. Strate, H. E., "Automobile Occupancy", Nationwide
Personal Transportation Survey, Report No. lf
Department of Transportation, April 1972.
28. Frye, F. F., "Alternative Multi-Modal Passenger
Transportation Systems - Comparative Economic
Analysis", National Cooperative Highway Research
Program Report No. 146, Highway Research Board, 1973.
29. "Characteristics of Urban Transportation Systems",
Deleuw, Gather, and Company, prepared for the
Department of Transportation, May 1974.
30. Curry, D. A., and Anderson, D. G., "Procedures for
Estimating Highway User Costs, Air Pollution, and Noise
Effects", National Cooperative Highway Research Report
No. 133, Highway Research Board, 1972.
2-307
-------
Section Three
THE ECONOMICS OF WATER
POLLUTION CONTROL
Chapter 1
Summary
The economics of controlling water pollution encompasses
both the expected benefits and the probable costs of
control. The principal findings in the control cost area
are summarized below- benefits of water pollution control
are discussed in the next section of this chapter.
The benefits from controlling water pollution are the result
of reduced levels of pollutants in the nation's waterways.
Table 1 presents estimates of the amount of various
pollutants that are expected to be introduced into the
waters from 1971 to 1985.
3-1
-------
Table 1.
National Trend in Effluent Discharge Levels
Net Weight
(Metric Tons)
u>
i
Water Pollutants 1971 1975
Industrial and Electrical Energy:
BOD 2,067,693 1.966.OO1
Suspended sol Ids 6,744,996 6,235,049
Dissolved sol1dS 11,343.849 11,496,225
Nutrients 86.2O3 81,596
Acids 233,623 224,038
COD 3,353,814 3.312,273
1977'
1983*
1985
1,315,045687,652 573 ,'299
3.405.3OO771.352 444,866
11,488,0629,714,877 9,305,820
54,297 39,249 38,609
80,836 68 13
2,851,155988,144 1,675,683
Municipal Sewage':
BOD
Suspended sol Ids
Nutrients
1,693,273 1,586,899 1,437,3936,400 702,669
1,820,621 1,668,368 1.429,736983,516 822,O32
1,014,442 1,061,768 1.080,43JO85,340 1,084,620
1 A11 BPT Installed
' All BAT Installed
' Municipal sewage figures are based upon the following assumptions:
a. Percentage of population sewered: 1970(71.0), 1974(75.0), 1990(83.0)
b. Percentage of sewered population by type:
-Primary: 1971(21.3), 1974(21.0), 1977(2O.O), 1985(0.0)
-Secondary: 1971(62.3), 1974(62.6), 1977(67.5), 1985(81,2)
-Tertiary: 1971(1.4), 1974(4.4), 1977(6.5), 1985(18.8)
-No Treatment: 1971(15.0), 1975(12.0). 1977(6.0), 1985(0.0)
c. Removal efficiency of BOD, SS, Nitrates, Phosphates-~by type :
-Primary: 38, 60, 0, O
-Secondary: 85, 85, O, O
-Tertiary: 97, 98, 91, 9O
-------
The direct costs of water pollution control will be incurred
as expenditures to install and operate equipment, to control
the pollution from "point sources" (i.e., those with
channelized waste streams), and to prevent sediment and
other run-off from "nonpoint sources".
On the basis of the results of the 1976 Needs Survey (Final
Report to the Congress, February 1977 "Cost Estimates for
Construction of Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment
Facilities"), the largest single category of required
expenditures is that required for the collection and
treatment of municipal sewage and stormwater, $150 billion
(in 1976 dollars as reported in Needs Survey) by 1990.
These expenditure requirements have been divided into six
categories, depending on the required treatment levels,
and/or the type of construction as follows:
1. category I
2. Category II
3. category IIIA -
Category IIIB -
4; Category IVA -
Category IVB -
5. Category v
6. Category VI
Secondary Treatment.
More Stringent Treatment Required by
Water Quality (removal of phosphorus,
ammonia, nitrates, and organic
pollutants).
Correction of
infiltration/Inflow.
Major Sewer Rehabilitation.
Collector Sewers.
interceptor Sewers.
of Combined
Sewer
Correction
Overflows.
Treatment and/or
Stormwaters.
Control
Sewer
of
In Table 2, an aggregated summary of municipal costs is
presented for the two basic scenarios used in this report:
Federal outlays (and associated state and local
expenditures) resulting from current contract authority, and
Federal outlays resulting from a. recommended additional
contract authority of $4.5 billion per year beginning in
FY1978 and continuing for ten years. Comparing the total
investment under these two scenarios with the estimate $150
3-3
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billion (in 1973 dollars) from the Needs Survey indicates
that neither program will meet the estimates of actual
requirements, although the higher scenario will meet 84
percent of the "backlog" needs in Categories i through v.
Table 2.
Summary of Municipal Costs
(Millions of 1973 Dollars)
Federal Grant
Authority
Current
1976-85
investment
26.4
1985 1985
O&M Annualized
Capital
1.45
4.23
Additional
$4.5 Billion
per year
{Beginning in
1977)
63.3
3.48
10.1
Industrial water pollution control investment expenditures
over the same 1976-85 period will amount to approximately
$52 billion{1975$). These expenditures are only 35 percent
of the municipal costs reported in the 1976 Needs Survey but
are higher than the "current-authority" municipal
expenditures by 96 percent. The anticipated water pollution
control costs from 1976 to 1985 are presented for each major
water polluting industry in Table 3, and Figures 1 and 2.
3-4
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Table 3.
National Industrial investment costs
for Water Pollution Costs
(Millions of 1975 Dollars)*
industry 1974-1977 1978-1983 1976-1985
GROUP I
Feedlots 50 24 54
Beet Sugar 12 19 28
Cane Sugar 22 22 28
Dairy 54 1,035 1,096
Fruits & vegetables 35 429 479
Grain Milling NEC 144 145
Meat & Poultry Processing 117 1,134 1,210
Seafood 40 1,122 1,292
Leather 48 265 295
Textiles 134 453 558
Builders Paper 11 129 138
Pulp and Paper 1,963 2,503 6,654
Plywood, Hardboard
and Wood Preservation 71 43 425
inorganic Chemicals 632 333 516
Fertilizers 111 173 285
Organic Chemicals 678 4,457 5,403
Phosphates 69 77 131
Plastics & Synthetics 348 1,099 1,454
3-5
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Table 3. (Continued)
National industrial investment Costs
for Water Pollution Costs
(Millions of 1975 Dollars)!
industry
GROUP I (cont'd.)
Petroleum
Rubber
Ferroalloys
iron and Steel
Bauxite Refining
Primary Aluminum
Secondary Aluminum
Copper
primary Lead
Primary Zinc
Asbestos
cement
Fiberglass
Flat Glass
Pressed & Blown Glass
Electroplating
Steam Electric Power
Soaps & Detergents
1974-1977
1,562
85
15
1,760
63
29
3
14
3
8
1
37
15
2
16
1,995
600
6
1978-1983
524
84
50
1,800
61
24
52
11
2
15
2
18
18
4
174
2,793
3,900
69
1976-19£
1,770
148
95
3,120
111
45
55
15
3
18
3
39
29
6
229
3,837
4,800
75
3-6
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Table 3. (Continued)
National Industrial Investment Costs
for water Pollution Costs
(Millions of 1975 Dollars)1
Industry 1974-1977 1978-1983 1976-1985
GROUP II
Fabricated Metals 3,579 4,223 6,035
Machinery-Electrical 1,144 1,588 2,301
Machinery-Nonelectrical 3,165 4,068 5,318
Transportation Equipment 2,147 2,361 3,527
NATIONAL TOTALS 20,650 37,300 51,800
Detailed independent studies of several of these
industries were recently completed for EPA by various
consultants. The revised estimates are presented here,
with explanations of the differences from SEAS estimates
in the individual industry descriptions.
Group II industries were analyzed by Gianessi and PesXin
with different sub-categorizations. ("The Cost to
Industries of the Water Pollution Control Amendment
of 1972," National Bureau of Economic Research,
December 1975—Revised January 1976.) The total overall
industries in this group for their study was $9,870 million
for BPT. This compares very favorably with the SEAS total
of $10,340 million. For purposes of national impact
analysis, both estimates are within an acceptable range of
computational variance.
3-7
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Figure 1.
Total industrial Capital Investment
for Water Pollution Abatement
32
24
i
in
r-
S 16
u.
o
t/>
a
j
3
TOTAL
ANNUALIZED
O&M
ANNUALIZEO
CAPITAL
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
YEAR
3-8
-------
Figure 2.
Industrial Annual!zed Capital Investment
and operation and Maintenance Expenditures
for Water Pollution Abatement
80
60
CO
§
in
u.
o
in
§
40
20
CUMULATIVE
INVESTMENT
ANNUAL
INVESTMENT
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
YEAR
3-9
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Estimating the costs of nonpoint-source water pollution
control is much more difficult. Not only has little work
been done in this area, but both the amount of pollution to
be controlled and the appropriate methods of control depend
on such complex variables as annual rainfall characteristics-
and local soil conditions. Control' and implementation
strategies are not sufficiently well-defined to allow
estimation of agricultural nonpoint costrs.
in addition to the expenditures for pollution control
equipment, direct costs will also be incurred to operate the
government programs necessary to administer the pollution
control program. These costs, which will be experienced at
all levels of government - national, state, and local, are
summarized in Table 4 below.
Table 4.
Government Expenditures for water Pollution Federal
and State-Local, for Selected Years, 1975-85
(in Millions of 1975 Dollars)
1977 1983 1985
Federal 367.9 311.9 311.9
State-Local 130.0 130.0 130.0
Total 497.9 441.9 441.9
The direct costs discussed above are not the only costs of
the water pollution control program. The burden of meeting
these direct costs will have repercussions on society, and
industry must somehow pay for the costs of water pollution
control equipment. This payment may be manifested through
increased consumer prices, changes in production, or, in
extreme cases, plant closures.
3-10
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Chapter 2
The Benefits of Controlling
water Pollution
This section of the report presents a state-of-the-art
.assessment of the national benefits of controlling water
pollution. A broad spectrum of studies has been reviewed
for information on vater pollution control benefits. The
information is fragmentary and localized, requiring
questionable extrapolations to develop estimates at the
national level. Table 1 summarizes the availability and
reliability of the information contained in these studies.
3-11
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Table 1.
Availability and Reliability of Information on Water
Pollution Damages
Pollutant
Health
Aesthetic
and Outdoor Product. Prop.
Ecological Recreation Losses Values
Acidity
BOD
Col i form
Bacteria
Color
Floating
Solids
Hardness
Nutrients
Odor
Oil
Pesticides
Sediment
Temperature
IDS and
Salinity
TSS and
Turbidity
Toxic Metals
General
Pollution
U
U
SP
u
o
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
SP
u
SP
u
u
u
u
u
u
SP
u
IF
SP
D
U
U
SP
SF
IF
SF
U
IF
U
SP
U
SP
O
IF
IF
U
SF
SP
AF
SP
IF
SP
O
SP
IP
SP
u
SP
u
IF
SP
IF
SP
SP
IF
U
U
U
U
U
u
u
u
u
u
SP
u
u
u
u
SF
Availability:
A - ample
I - insufficient
S - scarce
U - unavailable
Reliability:
E - excellent
G - good
F - fair
p - poor
Future refinements in the data and techniques used for
estimation should lead to a better understanding of the
damage sources, as well as more precise estimates for
respective damages.
3-12
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HEALTH DAMAGES
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damage to Health
The negative effects of water pollution on health were the
earliest motivation for water pollution control. Even at
present levels of wastewater treatment and municipal water
supply treatment, harmful pollutants can be ingested and
cause disease. Bacteria and viruses are the primary
pollutants threatening human health, although recent
attention has also focused on carcinogens. Among the
diseases that have been investigated are gastroenteritis
(including nausea, stomach cramps and diarrhea), infectious
hepatitis, menengitis, congenital heart anomalies, and acute
myocarditis and pericarditis. The existing literature must
be. considered inadequate because of the number of pollutants
and diseases for which there is insufficient statistical
correlation.
Survey of Source Studies
A survey of health damage studies was accomplished by Neri,
Hewitt, and Schreiber (1974), who surveyed nearly 50
international epidemiological studies. Unger, Emerson, and
jqrdening (1973) present a graphic display of health impact,
effect transmission, and pollutant relationship in their
study. Nearly all health benefit studies rely on the Craun
and McCabe (1971) damage estimate of reported outbreaks of
waterborne illnesses. The Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) is currently studying the impact of water pollution on
human health by examining the relationship between water
quality and the absenteeism of elementary school children.
OUTDOOR RECREATION DAMAGES
Mature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damages to Recreation
Because of the strong dependence associated with water-
related recreation to water quality, recreation accounts for
a major part of the damages caused by water pollution,
Svimming, boating, and fishing are among the most popular
outdoor activities- the various pollutants discharged into
our waterways clearly interfere the enjoyment of these
activities.
3-13
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Swimming and other primary water-contact sports that provide
a likelihood of swallowing water are most strongly affected,
as is evident by the water quality criteria developed by the
Committee on Water Quality Criteria who set requirements of
fecal coliform, pH, clarity, and color. Howevert surveys
have made it clear that much more than these health
considerations influence the quality of water-based
recreation. For example, fishing clearly depends on the
capability of the water to support wildlife which is
affected by a number of water quality parameters, especially
dissolved oxygen, high temperatures, pH, phenols, turbidity,
ammonia, dissolved solids, nitrates, and phosphates.
The aesthetic experience of being in, on, or near water
strongly influences the pleasantness of all water
recreational activities. The measures of water quality that
are most highly-valued in people's perceptions of its
aesthetic attractiveness have been the major target of
studies done by survey researchers. They include floating
debris and oil, odor, clarity, and color; these conditions
can cause a reduction in the quality and value of the
recreation experience, making it less enjoyable. Secondly,
pollutants can increase the costs of obtaining a
satisfactory recreational experience. Such increased costs
arise primarily from increases in extended travel to gain
access to sufficiently clean water, but they can also result
from additional equipment or maintenance expenses. Both
decreased quality and increased cost ususally lead to a
reduction in the frequency or intensity of using available
recreation sites.
Water pollution also decreases the value of recreational
experiences. The study by Ditton and coodale (1972} also
estimated that 21 percent of the existing users would
experience higher value from recreation if pollution were
reduced by 1 percent. The extent of increased value was
estimated using Ericson's data on willingness to pay for
avoiding polluted- water. This estimate, which amounted to
$5.75 per recreation day, was developed for tourists in
Colorado.
Survey of Source Studies
An excellent survey of nearly 50 outdoor recreation damage
studies is provided by aordening (1974). The survey
presents tables containing over 30 water characteristics or
constituents that are detrimental to water-based
recreational activity, as well as reported damages and
established critical levels of specific pollutants.
3-14
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Major source studies employed in contemporary calculation of
damages and their respective subject areas are presented
below:
* Council on Environmental Quality (1972) - water quality
• Ericson (1975) - value of recreation experience
• Ditton and Goodale (1972) - recreationists' reaction to
water quality
• U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (1972) - recreation days
and travel mileage
• U.S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation (1972) - recreation
days
• Owens (1970) - travel mileage and average speed of
recreationists
• Burt and Brewer (1971) - travel cost of recreationists
• U.S. Federal Highway Administration (1974) - cost of
operating an automobile
• Walker and Gauger (1973) - value of household work.
Unger e_t al. (1974) presents two approximations of the
damages to outdoor recreation from water pollution. Two
regional studies, (Reiling e_t al.^ 1973 and Nemerow and
Faro, 1970)/ were synthesized to extrapolate national
damages through demand analysis. Total damages were
computed as a product of damages per acre, the percentage of
polluted water, water surface area, and a constant factor to
compensate for substitutions in the water-based recreations.
The expenditure method that equates benefits and
expenditures is an alternative method of estimating outdoor
recreational benefits. U.S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation
(1967 and 1972) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife (1972) studies
were the primary sources for this estimate, in a current
EPA study of the recreational benefits from water quality
improvement, empirically derived damage functions will be
formulated to approximate the impact of water quality
changes on recreation demand.
3-15
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AESTHETIC AND ECOLOGICAL DAMAGES
Nature and Effects of Water Pollution
Damages on Aesthetic and
Ecological Values
Aesthetic ana ecological values are damaged by water
pollution in a number of ways. Users of water in such
activities as recreation and to some extent, production,
also suffer damages because the quality of their experience
has been degraded by the presence of pollutants. Non-users
also suffer damages which they would be willing to pay to
avoid even though they do not intend to make direct use of
the waters involved. These aesthetic and ecological values
result from the knowledge that clean and natural waterways
exist and will be preserved and protected from the danger of
ecological loss. A part of such willingness to pay is the
vicarious satisfaction derived from the knowledge that the
preserved waterway will be used and enjoyed by others, even
the members of future generations to whom the natural
environment is bequeathed.
Damages to non-users result from those pollutants that have
the greatest impact on the readily-sensible aspects of water
quality; these include floating debris and oil, clarity,
color, and odor. Reduced ability to support wildlife would
certainly be considered damaging from the perspective of
those non-users who place high value on these ecological
aspects of water quality.
Survey of Source Studies
The primary source study used in estimating the national
aesthetic and ecological damages was the study performed in
British Columbia by Meyer (1974). This study focused on the
Fraser River, a major waterway in Canada, surveyed
residents' willingness to pay for fishing and preservation
of the salmon population. Households were sent a carefully
developed questionnaire that placed questions concerning the
value of the salmon resource in the context of public
service purchases made by the local municipal governments.
Respondents were asked to indicate the value they would
place on preservation of the river's resources, even though
they did not expect to use them. The results indicated an
average annual willingness to pay of $223 per household,
adding 54 percent to the value of fishing.
Colorado State University is conducting a study, Option
Value a_s a Benefit of_ Water Quality and Improvement - 1976.
3-16
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which will provide an empirical-based estimate of
individuals willing to pay to assure future access to clean
water resources.
PRODUCTION DAMAGES
Water pollution causes increased production costs and
decreased output because clean water is an important factor
in the production of many goods and services. For purposes
of this report, production uses of water have been grouped
into the following classes:
• Municipal
• Domestic (i.e., household)
• Industrial
• Agricultural
• Commercial fisheries
• Materials damage.
Nature and Effects of Water
Pollution Damage to Production
Water pollutants cause damages to municipal water supplies
increasing both the extent of water treatment required to
produce potable water, and the costs of maintaining water
treatment and supply equipment. The most damaging
pollutants are suspended and dissolved solids, bacterial and
viral pathogens, metal ions, (particularly iron and
manganese), inorganic and organic chemicals, and other
sources of bad odor and taste. The municipal water
treatment operations affected by additional pollutants are
decoagulation, filtration, clarification, demineralization
and softening, and control of taste and odor. Although
disinfection is a major part of municipal water treatment,
it now appears that this operation would not be
substantially reduced by controlling man-made effluents.
Although most household water is drawn from treated surface
waters or relatively clean groundwater sources, even these
supplies contain damaging pollutants; the remaining effects
cause damage to water pipes, water heaters, fixtures,
appliances, fabrics, swimming pools, shrubbery and lawns,
primarily from dissolved solids and acidity. A major
difficulty in the assessment of these damages arises from
the need to isolate the man-made effects from natural
pollution levels.
3-17
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The major industrial uses of water are for cooking, boiler
feed, and processing. About 25 percent of the 174 billion
liters per day drawn from surface water is treated before
use. Boiler feed water must be demineralized and given
tertiary treatment before use, but this process would be
necessary for natural pollutants only. Cooling water, which
accounts for more than .67 . percent of industrial water
intake, is not highly sensitive to pollution, although
fouling can cause reduced heat-transfer rates, and some
pollutants reduce equipment life. Although the most
troublesome pollutants vary substantially upon application
use, biological organisms, suspended and dissolved solids,
and acids are among those most widely treated. The
industries most sensitive to pollutants in their water
supply are those producing Pharmaceuticals, foods and
beverages, chemicals and textiles.
The pollutants most damaging to agriculture are suspended
and dissolved solids, and micro-organisms. Salinity can
reduce crop yields and the range of crop varieties that can
be economically raised under irrigation. Sediments can be
damaging to some clay soils, but have their greatest impact
on irrigation ditches, pumps, and nozzles. Bacteria and
viruses are of concern because of their potential damage by
crop contamination and the spread of disease to livestock.
Water pollution has seriously damaged commercial fisheries
by reducing the size of the catch, increasing its cost, and
lowering its quality. Fecal coliform and other bacteria,
reduced oxygen, and toxic metals, such as mercury, have
caused the closing of about 20 percent of marine
shellfishing areas. National shellfish catches have dropped
by more than half since the turn of the century. For
example, oyster production in Chesapeake Bay, has dropped
from 12 million to 1 million bushels per year.
The damage to materials by water pollution arises in a
number of the above categories and has been included
wherever appropriate. Materials damage also occurs in the
production activities associated with navigation. Damages
to navigation arise from the corrosive and abrasive effects
of water pollutants on bridges, wharfs, piers, navigation
aids, and vessels,- damages also result from sedimentation
and from floating debris, including pollution-induced growth
of algae and weeds.
Survey of Source Studies
Damage estimates for municipal water supplies are derived
from U.S. Census Bureau publications (1970 and 1974) which
3-18
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provided treatment costs and vater use data. Unger et al.
(1974), and Bregman and Lenormand (1966), have developed
•approximations of the damages to municipal water supplies
•using assumptions on the costs of removing man-made
pollution. Unit treatment costs resulting from pollution
followed Bregman and Lenormand's arbitrary assumptions of
costs per thousand gallons. Bregman and Lenormand estimated
that national damages to municipal water supplies were
between $118 million and $1.8 billion. Unger et al. revised
Bregman and Lenormand's costs per thousand gallons estimates
by the consumer price index and estimated 1974 benefits.
National damage estimates for industrial water uses also
were reported by Unger et al. This estimate utilized Bregman
and Lenormand's estimate of pollution-related treatment
costs per thousand gallons, and industrial water use data
for the year of the estimate. As previously noted, Unger et
al. applied the consumer price index to Bregman and
Lenormand's figures- additionally, Unger et al. extrapolated
their best estimate obtained from Bramer (1960).
Agricultural damage estimates have for the most part
followed the methodology presented by Unger et al. Using
variables relating water quality, cost, and land-use
parameters, Unger e_t al. calculated the direct salinity
impact on agriculture. The American Society of Agricultural
Engineers was the source of the agricultural damage estimate
attributed to sediments. A Dow Chemical Company (1972)
study developed regional sediment impact estimates on
agriculture.
An irrigation water loss estimate was first reported in
Holm, weldon, and Blackburn (1971). They used Timmons's
(1960) estimate of acre-feet of water loss and Wollman et
al's (1962.) value of an acre-foot of water.
The commercial fishery damage estimates and range are
reported by Tihansky (1973), Bale (1971), Weddig (1973),
Council on Environmental Quality (1970), and U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (1972).
Studies such as Black and veatch (1967), Hamner (1964),
American water Works Association (1961), Patterson and
Banker (1968), Leeds, Hill, Jewett, Inc. (1969), Metcalf and
Eddy (1972), and Williams (1968) were reviewed by Tihansky
to derive economic damage functions for household water use.
Unger et al. also reported damages from similar sources.
Black and veatch and Metcalf and Eddy were the primary
sources employed by Unger et al. Damages are estimated for
total dissolved solids and hardness, and the use of bottled
water.
3-19
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Bramer (1972) specifies the damages from acid corrosion
which can be attributed to navigation. Other studies which
have estimated damages to materials include Ohio River
Committee (1943), U.S. Army Crops of Engineers (1969), and
Dow Chemical Company.
PROPERTY VALUE DAMAGES
Nature and Effects of Pollution
Damages as Reflected
in Property Values
The effects of water pollution on the value of water uses
have been shown to be also reflected in the value of nearby
properties. The water use values that most strongly
influence property values are those directly related to
ownership of the land, namely recreation, aesthetic
enjoyment, and ecological enjoyment. Production activities
and health are less dependent on locations directly adjacent
to water, and damages in these categories are less strongly
reflected in property values. Residential and recreational
properties are similarly more affected by water pollution
than commercial and industrial properties, except for those
commercial activities directly related to water recreation.
A study by Dornbusch and Barrager (1973) included an
interview survey of property owners in seven areas where
pollution abatement had occurred. The responses indicated
that wildlife support capacity is more important to property
owners than aesthetics or recreation. The pollutants having
strongest damaging effect on fish and wildlife are included
in the National Sanitation Foundation's FAWL Index; these
are biological oxygen demand, heat, acidity, phenols,
turbidity, ammonia, dissolved solids, nitrate and phosphate.
The pollutants most strongly affecting aesthetics and
recreation as discussed in previous sections include
floating debris, oil, odor, clarity, color, and fecal
col i form.
SURVEY OF SOURCE STUDIES
The primary study on water pollution and property values was
performed under EPA sponsorship by Dornbusch and Barrager.
This study applied multiple-regression analysis to determine
the relationship between changes in property values as
determined by sale prices, and water quality as determined
by the EPA Pollution-Duration-lntensity Index. The results
3-20
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from seven case-study areas were extrapolated to provide a
national estimate by separately considering metropolitan
areas, towns, and rural areas. The estimated capital value
of $0.6 to $3.1 billion in 1972 was annualized at a 6
percent discount rate, giving $33 to $175 million per year
with a best-estimate of $76 million.
In an earlier study, Nemerow and Faro (1969) showed that
property along the shore of Qnondaga Lake near Syracuse,
N.Y., would increase in value by over $1 million per year if
the PDI index were lowered from 5 to 1. David and Lord
(1969) found that improvements in water quality on
artificial lakes in Wisconsin would increase adjacent
property values by 7 percent. In a study of Rocky Mountain
National Park, Ericson (1975) found that tourists in
Colorado were willing to pay 123 percent more for land that
was adjacent to unpolluted waterways. All of these studies
confirm the positive relationship between water quality and
property value, although the strength of the relationship
clearly varies from place-to-place.
3-21
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Report Series, No. PAC/N-74-1, 1974.
Nemerow, Nelson L., and Faro, Robert C., Measurement o_f the
Total Dollar Benefit of Water Pollution Control. Syracuse
University, January 1969.
Nemerow, Nelson L., and Faro, Robert C., "Total Dollar
Benefit of water Pollution control", Journal o_f the
Sanitary Engineering Division. 1970.
Neri, Luciano C., Hewitt, David, and Schreiber, George B.,
"Can Epidemiology Elucidate the Water Story?" American
Journal of_ Epidemiology. February 1974.
Ohio River Committee, "Report Upon Survey of the Ohio River
and Its Tributaries for Pollution Control," House Document
vol. 19, No. 1, 78th Congress, 1st Session, 1943.
Owens, Gerald P., Outdoor Recreation; Participation f
Characteristics of Users. Distances Traveled. and
Expenditures, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development
Center, Research Bulletin 1033, April 1970.
Patterson, W. L., and Banker, R. F., "Effects of Highly
Mineralized Water on Household Plumbing and Appliances",
journal of_ the American water works Association. September
1968.
Reiling, S. D., Gibbs, K. C., and Stoevener, H. H., Economic
Benefits From ari improvement in Water Quality, U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-R5-73-008, January
1973.
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Sonnen, Michael B., "Quality Related Costs of Regional Water
Users," paper presented at the ASCE National Meeting on
water Resources Engineering, January 29 - February 2,
1973.
Tihansky, Dennis P., "An Economic Assessment of Marine Water
Pollution Damages," Proceedings of the Third International
Conference on Pollution Control iji the Marine IndustriesF
June 5-7, 1973.
Timmons, F. L., U. S. Department of Agriculture, ARS-34-14,
1960.
Unger, Samuel G., Emerson, M, Jarvin, and Jordening, David
L., State-of-Art Review! Water Pollution Control
Benefits and Costs. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
EPA-600/5-73-008a, October 1973.
Unger, Samuel G., et_ al., National Estimates of Water
Quality Benefits, Development Planning & Research
Associates, Inc., November 1974.
Urban System & Engineering, Inc., Recreational Benefits from
water Quality improvement U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Washington Environmental Research Center, work in
progress.
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, A Study of the Need for and
Feasibility of a Program for the Removal and Disposal of
Drift and Other Debris, including Abandoned Vessels from
Public Harbors and Associated Channels Under the
Jurisdiction of the Department of_ the Army, Department of
Defense, August 1969.
U. S. Bureau of the Census, Census o_f Manufacturers. 7th
Subject Report Water- Use _Ln Manufacturingf U. S.
Government Printing Office, 1970.
U. S. Bureau of the Census, Goverjimental Finances ir\ 1972-
7.3, Series GS73, No. 5, JU. S. Government Printing Office,
1974.
U. S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract o_f_ the
United States; 1974, 95th ed., Washington, D. C., 1974.
U. S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, The 1965 Survey of_
Outdoor Recreation Activities, U. S. Department of
interior, 1967.
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U. S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, The 1970 Survey of
Outdoor Recreation Activities - Preliminary Reportt U. S.
Department of interior, February 1972.
U. S. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation, Outdoor Recreation - A
Legacy for America. U. S. Department of Interior, December
1973.
U. S. Department of Commerce, Survey of_ Current Businessf
July 1974.
U. S. Department of interior, westwide Study Report on the
Critical Water Problems Facing the Eleven Western States,
1974.
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Fish Kills Caused by
Pollution in 1971 - Twelfth Annual Report. 1972.
U. S. Federal Highway Administration, Cost o_f Operating an
Automobile, U. S. Department of Transportation, April
1974.
U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Survey of Fishing
and Hunting 1970, U. S. Department of Interior, 1972.
walker, Kathryn E., and Gauger, William H., The Dollar Value
of Household work. New York State College of Human
Ecology, Information Bulletin 60, 1973.
weddig, Lee J., National Fish Institute, Inc., Washington,
D. C., personal communication, January 1973.
Williams, J. W., "Effect of Water Conditioning on Waste
water Quality," Journal of_ the American Water works
Association. December 1968.
Wollman, Nathaniel, e_t al., The Value of. Water in
Alternative Uses With Special Application to water use iii
the San Juan and Rio Grande Basins of. New Mexico.
University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, 1962.
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Chapter 3
The Costs of Controlling Water Pollution
1. INTRODUCTION
Scope
This section of the report presents national level estimates
of the costs of meeting the provisions of the Federal Water
Pollution control Act amendments (P.I. 92-500), hereafter
referred to as the Act.
Costs reported include those attributable directly to
control measures (devices, process changes, etc.) and
program costs for research, administration, enforcement at
the Federal, state, and local levels. Sources of water
pollution are broken down into industrial, municipal, and
nonpoint categories, and direct control costs are estimated
for these categories.
industrial costs at the plant level are taken for the most
part from the Effluent Guidelines Development Documents,
which were prepared under Sections 304, 306, and 307 of
PL92-500. These documents define the levels of pollutant
removal that must be achieved by each industry category at
the interim level, best practicable technology (BPT) to be
achieved by July 1, 1977, and the final level, best
available technology (BAT) to be achieved by July 1, 1983.
Total industry costs are computed by developing plant-level
costs for one or more "model" plants of various sizes and
process configurations which are typical of those in the
industry. The total output of the industry is then
attributed to that number of model plants in each size
category which best approximates the actual size
distribution in the industry. The total cost is then simply
the number of model plants in each size category times the
plant level costs for that -category, summed over all size
categories.
Municipal costs are presented as total capital investment
achievable under the existing Federal contract authority,
(i.e., what will be spent rather than what is needed), as
distinguished from the industrial costs, which are estimates
of what will be required to achieve given control technology
levels. As an indicator of the total requirement for
municipal treatment plant construction, results from a 1976
survey of 'state estimates of construction requirements were
taken from "Cost estimates for Construction of Publicly-
Owned wastewater Treatment Facilities," Final Report to the
Congress, February 1977.
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Assumptions
The highlights of the assumptions made regarding compliance
with P.L. 92-500 are listed below. With the exception of
municipal treatment, these assumptions reflect full
compliance with the technology levels and deadlines included
in Federal legislation. in the municipal program, it is
recognized that the construction rate will be set by the
level of Federal expenditure, i.e., the cost of bringing all
plants to at least secondary level treatment by 1977 (or
possibly by 1983) is beyond anticipated expenditure levels.
The outlay schedule used in the Reference Case was projected
using current Federal contract authority- one other outlay
schedule is considered as an alternative.
FEDERAL COMPLIANCE ASSUMPTIONS
Industrial. Except for publicly-owned treatment works, BPT
must be applied to existing point sources of water pollution
by July 1, 1977, or compliance with pretreatment
requirements must be met if water is to be diverted to
publicly-owned treatment works.
Except for publicly-owned treatment works, the BAT which is
economically achievable for each pollutant category must be
applied to all point sources of pollution by July 1, 1983,
or compliance with pretreatment requirements must be met.
The Effluent Guideline Development Documents for
pretreatment, BPT, BAT, and New Source Performance Standards
(NSPS) are the source of regulations and costs relating to
industrial sources of water pollution.
In some industries, BAT is the same as elimination of
discharge (EOD), which is desired by 1985- in others,
extreme expense would be incurred to completely eliminate
discharge. Since no Federal regulations currently require
EOD, it was not considered in the estimation of pollution
abatement costs. The aspect of treatment requirements above
BPT in water-quality-limited stream segments, as per Section
301 of the Act, is not addressed in this analysis. This
could result in a very slight underestimate of costs in the
1976-85 period.
Municipal. According to the Act, publicly-owned treatment
works in existence in July 1, 1977, or approved under the
act, must meet secondary effluent limitations by July 1,
1977 (or ambient water quality standards, if they are more
stringent). However, the Reference Case assumption in this
report is that treatment plants will be built only at the
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rate allowed for by Federal appropriations and state
matching funds as shown in Table 1-1.
Table 1-1.
Projected Outlays Under Current Contract Authority
(In Millions of 1976 Dollars}
Direct Capital Direct Capital
Outlays (Fed., Outlays {Fed.,
FY State, Local) FY State, Local)
1975 2,773 1980 2,833
1976 3,628 1981 1,010
Transition 1,280 1982 598
1977 5,623 1983 251
1978 6,837 1984 251
1979 5,558 1985 251
The entries in Table 1-1 consist of Federal funds from P.L.
84-660, P.L. 92-500, P.L. 94-447, and P.L. 95-26. State and
local matching funds are 60 percent for P.L. 84-660 funds
and 25 percent for all other authorizations.
The Act requires that by July 1, 1977, all publicly owned
treatment plants should achieve effluent limitations based
on secondary treatment as defined by EPA, and that by July
1, 1985, all plants should achieve Best Practicable Waste
Treatment Technology (BPWTT) (or ambient water quality
standards, if they are more stringent). EPA's 'Water
Programs-Secondary Treatment information1 (40 CFR Part 133)
is the source of regulations which define the secondary
treatment effluent levels. For this analysis, BPWTT is
regarded as the same as meeting secondary treatment
standards.
Pollutants
A complete description of water quality has never been
accomplished, primarily because it would require chemical
analysis of a near-infinite number of •solid, liquid and
gaseous compounds, as well as the identification of numerous
biota also present in water. Thus, any practicable
description of water quality can only be conceived with a
very limited subset of all conceivable physical, chemical/
and biological aspects of actual waterbodies. Typical water
3-29
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quality measurements are, in fact, oriented toward a small
group of commonly-observed pollution problems.
The most common pollutants (or pollutant groups) are
discussed in the following paragraphs. There are some other
pollutants which are subject to effluent limitations, but
they are found in the waste streams of a very small number
of plants; these are covered in the industry summaries in
this chapter.
BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND
Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) is a measure of the oxygen-
consuming capabilities of organic matter- this matter is the
traditional organic wastes and ammonia contributed by
domestic sewage and industrial wastes of plant and animal
origin. Besides human sewage, such wastes result from food
processing, paper mill production, tanning, and other
manufacturing processes. The BOD does not, in itself, cause
direct harm to a water system, but it does exert an indirect
effect by depressing the oxygen content of the water.
Conditions are sometimes reached where all of the oxygen is
exhausted, and the continuing anaerobic decay process causes
production of noxious gases, such as hydrogen sulfide and
methane. In addition, since fish and plant life depend on
oxygen for life, failure to control the oxygen-demanding
wastes will kill the fish.
Chemical oxygen demand (COD) is another measure of oxygen-
consuming pollutants in water. COD differs from BOD,
however, in that COD is a measure of the total oxidizable
carbon in the waste, and related to the chemically-bound
sources of oxygen in the water (i.e., nitrate which is
chemically expressed as N03) as opposed to the dissolved
oxygen.
SUSPENDED SOLIDS
Suspended solids include both organic and inorganic
materials. The inorganic components include sand, silt, and
clay. The organic fraction includes such materials as
grease, oil, tar, animal and vegetable fats, various fibers,
sawdust, hair, and various materials from sewers. Some of
these solids may settle out rapidly and bottom deposits are
often a mixture of both organic and inorganic solids. They
adversely affect fisheries by covering the bottom of the
stream or lake with a blanket of material that destroys the
fish-food bottom fauna or the spawning ground.
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While in suspension, these solids increase the turbidity of
the water, reduce light penetration, and impair the
photosynthetic activity of aquatic plants.
DISSOLVED SOLIDS
Total dissolved salts represent the residue (exclusive of
total suspended solids} after evaporation, and they include
soluble salts, such as sulfates and chlorides, and possibly
nitrates of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium, with
traces of iron, manganese and other substances. Excessive
levels of dissolved salts can make water unfit for drinking
and irrigation purposes.
Total dissolved solids are particularly significant as a
pollutant in discharges from closed systems which involve
water recirculation and reuse. These systems tend to
concentrate dissolved solids as a result of evaporation and
require blowdown (continuous removal of a small amount of
the recirculating water) to maintain dissolved solids within
acceptable limits.
NUTRIENTS
Nutrients are substances that support and stimulate aquatic
plant life, such as algae and water weeds. Carbon,
nitrogen, and phosphous are the chief nutrients present in
natural water. Large amounts of these nutrients are
produced by sewage, certain industrial wastest and drainage
from fertilized lands. Biological waste treatment processes
do not remove the phosphorus and nitrogen to any substantial
extent. In fact, they convert the organic forms of these
substances into mineral form, making them more usable by
plant life. The problem starts when an excess of these
nutrients over-stimulates the growth of water plants,
causing unsightly conditions, interfering with treatment
processes, and causing unpleasant and disagreeable tastes
and odors in the water.
pH,ACIDITY, AND ALKALINITY
Acidity and alkalinity are reciprocal terms. Acidity is
produced by substances that yield hydrogen ions by
hydrolysis, and alkalinity is produced by substances that
yield hydroxyl ions,- pH is a logarithmic measure of the
number of hydrogen ions present. At a pH of 7, the hydrogen
and hydroxyl ion concentrations are essentially equal and
the water is neutral, waters with a pH above or below 7.0
3-31
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can be corrosive to waterworks structures, distribution
lines, etc.
Water Pollutant Controls
The control of water pollution involves a wide variety of
methods designed to reduce the flow of pollutants into the
nation's waterways. The methods employed differ
considerably from location-to-location, depending primarily
upon the types of pollutants present, the desired level of
treatment, the climate, and the quality and quantity of land
available.
THE TOTAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL SYSTEM
A well-designed water pollution control system minimizes the
volume and level of pollution of water that must be treated,
produces the desired degree of purity in the water
discharged, and properly disposes of the residual sludges.
The four general categories of control which comprise the
total water pollution control system are described below.
In-Process Controls. In-process controls are methods
designed to reduce water use and prevent the introduction of
pollutants into the water used. These methods are
particularly important in industry where changes in the
production processes, the use of raw materials, and the flow
of process waters can significantly reduce the volume and
degree of pollution of the wastewater streams.
Collection System. Before treatment, the wastewaters must
be collected and channeled to the treatment plant. The
collection systems of municipal treatment plants, the city
sewer systems, represent a considerable portion of the
municipal investment (approximately 55 percent) in water
pollution control. Proper maintenance and prevention of
leaks in these systems can significantly reduce the
wastewater flow into municipal treatment plants.
Wastewater Treatment. The actual treatment of polluted
waters is designed through a wide variety of methods which
are discussed in subsequent paragraphs.
Sludge Disposal. The pollutants removed from the wastewater
must be disposed of properly so that they do not return to
the waterways. The most common methods of sludge disposal
are sanitary landfill, incineration, and land spreading.
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WASTEWATER TREATMENT SYSTEMS
The heart of any water pollution control system is the
wastewater treatment system which takes in wastewater,
removes pollutants, and discharges purified water.
Wastewater treatment systems consist of a number of
components designed to remove different types of pollutants
at different stages of the treatment process. Table 1-2
presents a summary of the most common wastewater treatment
processes, the types of pollutants they are designed to
remove, and the level of treatment most often attained. The
treatment systems are often categorized into the three
general types described below.
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Table 1-2.
Common Wastewater Treatment Processes
TYPE NAME
PHYSICAL-CHEMICAL
Pretreatment Screening
Pretreatment
Pretreatment
Pretreatment
Primary
Primary
Tertiary or
Advanced
Tertiary or
Advanced
Equalizat1on
Neutralization
011 Separation
Sedimentation
Flotation
Chemical
preeipltat1on
or coagulation
F11tratlon
DESCRIPTION
Screens trap large particles.
Holding ponds equalize the
flow of wastewater to the
treatment plant.
Chemicals added to neutralize
acidity or alkalinity.
Oil skimmed off surface.
Wastewater 1s detained in
a holding tank so that
suspended sol Ids can settle
out.
Air bubbles bring the
suspended sol Ids to the
surface where they are
skimmed off.
The addition of chemicals
to the wastewater causes
metals, etc. to settle out.
Fine media such as earth
sand, etc., are used to
filter out very fine
particles.
POLLUTANTS
REMOVED
SS
Oil
SS,
BOD
SS,
BOD
Metals,
Phosphorous
SS
LEVEL OF
EXPECTED TREATMENT
Removes 1arge
suspended sol Ids
pH 6.5-8.5
Removes particles
> O.O15 cm in diameter
3O mg/1 - but
depends upon influent
3O mg/1 - but
depends on influent
< 5 mg/1
5-1O mg/1
-------
Table 1-2. (Continued)
Common Wastewater Treatment Processes
Tertiary or Carbon Wastewater -is passed over COD. 1O mg/1
Advanced absorbtion powdered carbon which absorbs TOC 2 mg/1
organic materials.
Tertiary or Ion exchange and Employs ionic resins or Metals.TOS.dis- Depends on resin used
Advanced electrodialysis electric current to remove solved phophor- and pollutants present
charged particles. ous, nitrogen
Tertiary or Reverse osmosis Wastewater is passed through Organics and ?
Advanced a suitable membrane under Inorganics
pressure.
Tertiary or Air stripping Air is passed through Ammonia 95% removal
Advanced Wastewater, pH has been
adjusted by the addition of
BIOLOGICAL
Secondary Trickling Wastewater is passed over BOD ? < 50 mg/1
filter bacteria growing on a bed of
rocks.
Secondary Aerated Air is pumped into the waste- BOD < 50 mg/1
lagoons water to aid the bacteria's
digestion of organic wastes.
Secondary Stabilization Digestion allowed to occur BOO ? < 5O mg/1
Ponds in ponds without the
addition of air.
Secondary Anaerobic Uses a fermentation process BOD > 1OO mg/1
ponds to digest organic wastes.
-------
Table 1-2. (Continued)
Common Wastewater Treatment Processes
to
W Secondary Activated sludge Recycles bactferla-laden BOD < 25 mg/1
CTN sludge to accelerate
digestion of organic
materials.
Tertiary or Nitrification/ Two-stage process with Nitrogen < 5 mg/1
Advanced denitrif1 cat ion aeration and sludge
organisms.
LAND TREATMENT
Secondary and Irrigation or Wastewater is applied to the Organic and Up to 1OO% removal
Tertiary or spray irrigation land which acts as a natural Inorganics
Advanced filter
-------
Physical-Chemical. These processes rely primarily upon
physical means, such as skimming, screening, or gravity
settling,- and chemical processes, such as neutralization,
chemical precipitation, carbon absorbtion, or ion exchange.
Biological. The biological processes employ bacteria to
digest organic pollutants in the was'tewater, after which the
bacteria are removed primarily by physical means. Comsnonly-
used biological systems include tricKling filters, lagoons,
and activated sludge plants. In tricXling filters, bacteria
are grown upon a bed of stones 3-to 10-feet deep. When
wastewater is passed over these stones, the bacteria are
able to consume most of the organic materials present.
Where more land is available, lagoons are employed to allow
the sunlight, oxygen, and algae to interact and restore the
water naturally. Lagoons may be anaerobic, aerobic, or
aerated depending upon how much oxygen is required.
Activated sludge plants are more advanced systems in which
the process or biological digestion is accelerated by
bringing air and sludge heavily-laden with bacteria into
close contact with the organic wastes. Septic tanks, are
smaller-scale biological treatment systems commonly employed
for individual residences.
Land Treatment. These processes allow pretreated
wastewaters to percolate through the soil; organic and
inorganic wastes are then removed by this natural filter.
Irrigation and spray irrigation are common methods of land
treatment which are often used to enhance agricultural
production.
STAGES OF TREATMENT
Each wastewater treatment system is comprised of a number of
components arranged in sequence so that finer and finer
levels of treatment are achieved. The components used and
the treatment required vary widely from system to system;
however, four generally-accepted stages of the treatment
process are discussed below.
Pretreatment. To prepare the wastewater for further on-site
treatment or for discharge to a municipal treatment plant,
suspended solids and oils are removed by skimming or
screening, acidity or alkalinity is reduced by chemical
neutralization, and the flow of wastewater is often
equalized through the use of storage ponds. Heavy metals or
toxic materials might also be removed at this stage.
Primary Treatment. After pretreatment, the wastewater is
generally allowed to remain for some time in sedimentation
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tanks so that most of the remaining suspended material-.
allowed to settle out. Flotation devices might al
employed to remove suspended solids in the primary treatment
stage.
Secondary Treatment. Secondary treatment generally consists
of biological treatment processes designed to remove the
organic wastes that have not settled out of the wastewater.
Further sedimentation may then be necessary to remove the
bacteria generated by the biological treatment.
Tertiary or Advanced Treatment. In the advanced treatment
processes, many remaining pollutants are removed by very
specialized treatment processes designed to remove specific
chemicals, nutrients, metals, etc. Before being introduced
into the waterways, the water is often chlorinated to kill
any harmful bacteria that might be present.
NONPOINT SOURCE WATER POLLUTION CONTROL
The above discussion has dealt primarily with wastewater
treatment systems designed to treat "point sources" of
pollution,- i.e., wastewaters which are channeled through a
pipe. A significant amount of soils, nutrients, and other
pollutants are introduced into the waterways from the run-
off of rainwater from fields, city streets, etc., which are
classified as "nonpoint sources" of water pollution.
The control of nonpoint source pollution does not involve
treatment systems as sophisticated as those discussed above.
Usually/ nonpoint sources can be controlled to some extent
by correct soil conservation practices, the planting of
grass and other vegetation, and when necessary, the
provision of settling ponds or sedimentation basins.
Considerable research is underway to develop dependable
information for designing nonpoint-source controls.
However, the level of controls to be applied nationally and
the best implementation strategy are still not sufficiently
defined to warrant cost estimation for agricultural nonpoint
sources.
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2. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES FOR
WATER POLLUTION CONTROL
Government funds for water pollution control are spent for
three major purposes:
* To conduct programs of monitoring, enforcementy
technical assistance, grant assistance, and research,
• To abate pollution created at government-owned
facilities, and
* To treat wastewater at municipal treatment facilities.
Generally, states have primary responsibility for monitoring
and enforcement with financial and other assistance provided
by the Federal government; research is conducted primarily
by the Federal government, and treatment of municipal
wastewater is the responsibility of local and state
governments with major financial assistance from the Federal
and state governments.
This discussion centers on the general program of Federal
and state governments, and it projects their respective
program costs over a 10-year period; it also includes
estimates of the cost of abating pollution at Federal
facilities. Details of the analysis are not presented here
since the main purpose of this effort is to determine the
magnitude of this category of expenditure relation to other
expenditures in the report.
PROGRAM COSTS
Federal and state program costs are summarized in Table 2-1.
Federal expenditures {exclusive of construction grants and
grants to states) are projected to decrease from the 1975
level of $326 million to $187 million in 1978. The Federal
share of program expenditures is also projected to decline
over the forecast period as the states gradually assume
greater responsibility in implementing the programs and
regulations. Total decade expenditures for this category
are projected at 3,174 million.
3-39
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Table 2-1.
Projected State and Federal Program Costs
I
o
Federal '
State
Totals
1976
211
13O
341
Tran-
sition3
41
33
74
1977
215
130
345
1978
187
13O
317
<
1979
187
13O
317
i in Mil
198O
187
13O
317
Costs per Fiscal Year1
(In Millions of 1973 Dollars)
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Total
162 162 162 162 162 1842
13O 13O 13O 130 13O 1333
292 292 292 292 292 3174
1 Excludes'Construct Ion Grant funds which are Included 1n the Municipal Cost section.
' Excludes State Program Grant funds which are Included In the state totals,
' Three-month period July 1 through October 31, 1976. caused by change of Fiscal Year
from July 1-June 3O, to October 1-September 3O.
-------
Federal Program Costs
Federal responsibilities which are exercised primarily
through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA^
encompass a broad range of authorities, particularly since
enactment of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments of 1972. On the one hand, they encourage
compliance through grants and other types of assistance; on
the other, they require compliance through regulatory
programs.
ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS
EPA conducts several assistance programs, including the
grants for wastewater treatment vorks, grants for regional
water quality planning, program development, technical
assistance, and manpower development.
The construction grants program is by far the largest,
involving $2 billion in Federal funds in fiscal year 1973,
$3 billion in 1974, $4 billion in 1975 and $9 billion in
1978. The level of assistance has gradually increased since
the first permanent Federal pollution control legislation
was . enacted in 1956; today, the Federal share is 75 percent
of project capital costs. A variety of projects are
eligible for funding, including treatment plants and
interceptor sewers. Details of this category . of
expenditures are presented in the next chapter.
EPA also provides program grants to assist the states,
interstate and regional agencies expand and improve a
variety of activities essential to the control of water
pollution. The activities include water quality planning
and standards setting, surveillance, enforcement, issuance
of permits, executive management, and administration of the
construction grants program. The level of assistance varies
from one activity to another, as well as from year to year.
In 1975 and 1976 over $200 million dollars was granted to
regional agencies for areawide waste treatment management
plants. However, in the future, funding for this program
will drop to a low maintenance level for the next few years.
The feasibility of a new consolidated grants program is
currently under study by the Agency which would combine the
state assistance programs for water quality, air quality,
water supply and solid waste. if such a program were
initiated, the Abatement and Control category in Table 2-2
would drop by an amount roughly equal to the water quality
state assistance program. Since allocation of these
consolidated funds among the four categories might become a
3-41
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state option, forecasting future water quality expenditures
would require additional- analysis.
Technical assistance is another program receiving major EPA
attention. Many pollution problems are too complex for
states, communities, and industries to handle alone, EPA
assi'sts In such cases by providing services ranging from
technical advice and consultation to extensive, long-term
field and laboratory studies. Within the limits of
available resources, this assistance is provided on request,
primarily to the states and municipalities.
As might be expected, the rapid expansion of pollution
control activities has placed a strain upon the supply of
trained manpower. In providing assistance, EPA pursues a
number of approaches; these include providing short-term
training by EPA staff to upgrade the skills of those already
in the field, and employing a variety of ways to train
sewage treatment plant operators.
REGULATORY PROGRAMS
To facilitate enforcement of the many new pollution control
requirements, the 1972 Act replaced former enforcement
authorities with new authorities and provided a new
regulatory scheme based largely on the imposition of
specific requirements through a system of permits and termed
the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES).
Permit conditions and other requirements of the Act are
enforceable through EPA compliance orders and civil suits;
violators are subject to penalties. A state may assume the
responsibility if it meets certain requirements, including
the capability and authority to modify, suspend, or revoke a
permit, and it has the powers and procedures necessary for
criminal penalties, injunctive relief, and other enforcement
mechanisms.
The Act also required Federal agencies to comply with
Federal, state, interstate, and local pollution control and
abatement requirements to the same extent as any person must
comply. EPA's role steins from the Act and is amplified in
Executive Order 11752. The role includes review of Federal
facilities compliance with applicable standards, providing
guidance to the Federal agencies for implementing provisions
of the Order, providing coordination of Federal agencies'
compliance actions with state and local agencies, and
providing technical advice on waste treatment technology.
Table 2-2 projects a stabilized Federal water quality
program beyond FY78, reflecting the need for Federal fiscal
3-42
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restraints and the gradual acceptance of greater
environmental responsibilities by the states. Water quality
program expenditures are usually divided into three
categories: abatement and control covers the numerous
management and assistance activities of the water quality
program, research and development provides the scientific
and technical support for the program, and enforcement
covers actions seeking compliance with the law. Table 2-2
shows projected Federal program expenditures according to
the three categories listed.
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Table 2-2.
Projected Federal Water Quality Program Expenditures
Abatement and
Control
Research and
Deve1opment
Enforcement
Totals
Tran-
1976 sltion 1977
145
25
153
45 11 44
21 5 21
211 41 218
Fiscal Year Expenditures
(In Millions of Dollars)
1978 1979 198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Total
150 150 ISO 150 ISO 150 150 150 1523
44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 459
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 215
216 216 216 216 216 216 216 216 2197
-------
State Program Costs
STATE ROLE
Although the Federal government has taken an increasingly
greater hand in dealing with water pollution, the states
continue to bear the major share of the responsibility.
States inherently have broad powers to deal with water
pollution, and these powers, together with delegated Federal
authorities, place the states in a strong position to
regulate all sources of pollution. State powers and
responsibilities under the Act are exercised through a broad
range of activities, including:
• States prepare an annual strategy and program report
that describes the interim goals to be achieved during
the year, the state resources to be assigned in meeting
the goals, and the method of assigning resources.
• States prepare basin water quality management plans, as
required by section 303(e) of the 1972 Act. These
plans are designed to be the central management tools
of the states in administering their water quality
programs.
• States are responsible for reviewing areawide waste
treatment management plans called for by Section 208
and prepared by local agencies.
• States have major responsibilities in the
administration of the construction grants program,
including the responsibility for assigning priorities
to projects eligible for Federal financial assistance.
, It is intended'-that certain Federal responsibilities,
such as review of plans and specifications, be
transferred to the states as they are able to assume
them/* Some states provide funds to assist communities
in constructing waste treatment works. Primary
responsibility for monitoring municipal treatment
plants to see that they operate correctly also rests
with the states.
• States have the basic responsibility for planning and
implementing programs for control of nonpoint sources
of pollution.
» Some states have assumed, and others are in the process
of ass-uming, responsibility for the HPDES permit
program. States that have received the responsibility
have concurrently assumed extensive enforcement
responsibilities associated with permit compliance.
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* States and the Federal government share responsibility
for enforcement.
• States establish and implement water quality standards.
Under the 1972 Act, such standards are extended to
intrastate, as well as interstate, waters.
® States perform monitoring and surveillance functions to
identify and assess existing and potential water
pollution problems, and also to measure the
effectiveness of the permit and construction grants
programs.
AGGREGATE STATE PROGRAM EXPENDITURES
Methods for estimating state program costs are discussed in
Section 1. As shown in Table 2-1, state program
expenditures are expected to remain level at about $130
million per year, within this stable budget expenditure
will gradually shift from planning to enforcement. The
assumptions behind the analysis suggests a continuation of
activity in almost every area. Revisions of water quality
standards, issuance of a new round of permits, compliance
and ambient monitoring and construction grant review, in
fact, may require the maintenance of state programs at a
higher expenditure level than projected. However,
anticipated revenue constraints at the State and Federal
level combined with competing social needs lend credence to
a level projection.
Expenditures by Other Federal Agencies
The following information is excerpted and adapted from:
Office of Management and Budget, "Special Analyses: Budget
of the United States Government," USGPO, 1976.
Although covering a wide range of activities, Federal
environmental programs are classified in three broad
categories: pollution control and abatement; understandingt
describing and predicting the environment, and environmental
protection and enhancement activities. It is difficult to
attribute non-EPA Federal expenditures to specific pollution
control legislation in many cases, but an approximation of
P.L. 32-500 related expenditures is given by the water
quality expenditures in the Pollution Control and Abatement
category. Principal activities in this category include
actions necessary to reduce pollution from Federal
facilities; the establishment and enforcement of standards,-
research and dvelopment; and the identification of
3-46
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pollutants, their sources, and their impact on health. Non-
EPA water quality expenditures by the Federal government in
FY1976, the transition quarter and FY1977 are 527, 83, and
467, million dollars respectively.
Since Federal spending is strongly influenced by policy and
competing social needs, forecasting is always problematical.
The best estimate currently is that such expenditures will
remain stable over the next several years, with only minor
growth or decline. If non-EPA Federal outlays in this
category were to be held constant at the FY1977 level, total
decade expenditures would be about 4.8 billion dollars.
While this is a large amount on an absolute basis, it is
relatively small compared to total expenses in the nation
for P.L. 92-500.
3. MUNICIPAL CONTROL COSTS
Introduction
The 1972 amendments to the Clean Water Act established
technology objectives and water quality objectives for
controlling pollution from municipal sources. The
technology objectives require that all publicly-owned
treatment works install" best practicable wastewater
treatment technology" {BPWTT). Provision for BPWTT requires
a complete evaluation, on a case-by-case basis, of (1)
conventional treatment and discharge to surface waters, (2)
land application of wastewater, and (3) reuse technologies.
As a minimum, either secondary treatment (85 percent control
organic and suspended solids and a pH between 6.0 and 9.0)
or higher levels of treatment as required to meet water
quality standards must be provided. These standards are
based on achieving a level of water quality that will
provide for the protection and propagation of fish,
shellfish, and wildlife, and will provide for recreation in
and on the water. This section reports the costs associated
with meeting these dual objectives.
DEFINING AND MEASURING NEED
The 1976 Needs Survey conducted in compliance with Section
516 (b) (2) of the Act, estimates the expenditures required
to meet the technology and water quality standards and to
provide for replacement or expansion of facilities as
necessary to serve the population projected to 1990. Thus,
a "need" consists of the resources associated with the
3-47
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upgrading, replacement, expansion or construction of
treatment facilities which state or local governments
consider to be necessary, based upon the Federal standards.
The Needs Survey is conducted independent from the
comprehensive analysis, and details may be found in a
separate report "Cost Estimates for construction of
Publicly-Owned wastewater Treatment Facilities-1976 Needs
Survey," EPA-430/9-76-010.
DEFINING COST
while all other sections of the report estimate costs for
compliance with effluent or emission standards, several
complications preclude presenting that type of analysis in
this case. Because of the difficulty facing municipalities
in raising capital, and limitations in Federal construction
grants, treatment plants cannot be built fast enough to
assure compliance with the Act. Instead, it is assumed in
this report that new plants will only be built as rapidly as
permitted by Federal appropriations and state and local
matching funds. The total investments shown in Table 3-8
are composed of Federal outlay estimates for the given year,
plus required state and local matching funds.
Not all costs reported herein are properly attributable .to
the standards created under the authority of P.L. 92-500.
The costs attributable to those standards are incremental;
only those costs associated with going from an existing
level of treatment to a higher level of treatment necessary
to meet technology and water quality objectives are propejrly
attributable to the standards. Thus, costs for replacement
of facilities built prior to 1972 which do not require, a
different level of treatment, the cost associated with the
lower level of treatment that would otherwise have been
achieved in facilities built after 1972, and the cost
associated with a higher level of treatment than is
necessary to meet the standards should be excluded from the
costs attributed to meeting standards. However, since
Section 516(b) directs assessment of the costs of "carrying
out the provisions of the Act," and the construction grant
program is an integral part of the Act, the entire range of
costs attributed to that program are reported herein.
The concept of cost employed in this report is that of cost
to society, not financial cost. Hence, the interest rate
applied in the annualization of investment cost (10 percent)
does not represent the cost of borrowing funds in the
municipal bond market; rather, it represents the opportunity
cost of applying to the public sector those funds which
3-48
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might otherwise be yielding a competitive return in the
private sector.
STATUS OF PUBLIC SEWERAGE
Since 1940, the nation's public sewerage treatment systems
have improved dramatically through expansions in the scope
of their coverage and in their capabilities for treatment,
but the systems have not kept pace with the amount of
residuals to be processed. The coverage of the systems has
kept pace with population growth and expanded to encompass
parts of the population previously not served. Between 1940
and 1974, U.S. population increased by 37 percent- the
population served by sewers increased 385 percent, and the
population served by treatment facilities increased by 337
percent. As Table 3-1 indicates, approximately 73 percent
of the population was served by sewers and 92 percent of the
sewered population was served by treatment facilities by
1976.
The capability of the systems to treat waste has improved as
well. in the same period, the number of persons whose
wastes receive primary treatment (physical processes that
remove roughly 30 percent of solids and about 35 percent of
BOD5J had tripled. The population employing at least
secondary treatment (biological processes that raise the
removal of BOD5_ and solids to the 70 to 85 percent level)
increased more than fourfold, and now includes about 50
percent of the sewered population. Not only have more
persons been connected to more advanced types of sewerage
treatment facilities, but technological modifications have
improved the removal efficiencies of each type, (see Table
3-2).
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Table 3-1.
Degree of Sewage Treatment
Population Served, by Sewerage (In Millions)
Year
1940
1945
1948
1957
1962
1968
1974
19762
Sources:
NO
Treatment
29.9
27.9
28.0
23.8
17.0
10.9
3.2
15.7
Less Than
Secondary
Treatment
15.1
17.2
18.4
25.7
32.7
36.9
54.6-
45.2
Secondary
Treatment*
Greater Than
Secondary
Treatment
18.9
21.7
22.7
43.3
61.2
85.6
105.0
35.2
0.3
2.7
50.5
Engineering News Record, survey of
municipalities 1940-74; EPA and predecessor
agencies in "Municipal Waste Inventories",
1976 Needs Survey.
1 Plants employing secondary-type technology; they may not
meet current definitions of secondary effluent standards.
2 1976 figures were not incorporated into the overall cost
estimates.
3-50
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Table 3-2.
Effect of Sanitary Sewage Treatment
(Millions of pounds of BOD5_ per day)
collected Discharged by
by Sanitary Reduced by Treatment
Year Sewers* Treatment* Plants
1957 16.4 7.7 8.7
1962 19.8 10.8 9.0
1968 23.3 15.0 8.3
1974 27.6 18.5 9.1
19763 41.8 31.8 10.0
* Based on 0.167 of BOD5_ per sewered person per day.
2 Based on the distribution of treatment facilities shown
in Table 3-1 and on estimates of removal efficiency
from a variety of sources.
3 1976 figures were not incorporated into the overall cost
estimates.
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Although the coverage and treatment capability of the
systems have increased, the systems have not Kept pace with
the increasing volume of residuals to be removed. While one
portion of the system/ the treatment facilities, increased
the amount of BOD5_ diverted from our waterways, another
portion, sanitary sewers, more than offset that improvement
by delivering more BOD5_ for treatment. These figures may be
overly pessimistic as they pertain to sanitary sewerage
only; they do not reflect the net result of initiating
public treatment for a large (but unknown) number of
industrial facilities that previously discharged directly
into our waterways. On the other hand, they do not take
into account the increased concentration of wastes in
sanitary sewerage resulting from such innovations as kitchen
garbage disposals.
Although expenditures in the past two decades have
significantly expanded the capital stock of public sewerage
facilities, the prospect for future decades is that
replacement expenditures may consume larger proportions of
the annual investment in sewerage facilities. Between 1855
and 1973, the nation invested an estimated $61.8 billion
(1972 dollars) in its public sewerage facilities (see Table
3-3); this investment represents about 5 percent of the
total state and local government capital expenditures for
all purposes since 1915 and resulted in approximately $34
billion worth of facilities in place by 1971. The
replacement costs shown here represent an upper bound since
they are based on conservative lifetimes of 50 and 25 years
for sewers and treatment plants, respectively.
3-52
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table 3-3.
Investment in Public Sewerage Facilities
(Billions of 1972 dollars)
Period
1856-69
1870-79
1880-89
1890-99
1900-09
1910-19
1920-29
1930-34
1935-39
1940-45
1946-56
1957-61
1962-67
1968-73
Gross
Investment
$ 0.5
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.5
2.7
5.7
2.5
4.8
2.1
10.8
7.5
9.1
12.0
Replacement2
Net
Investment
End of
Period
Capitali-
zation
Totals $ 61.8
$
$
0.1
0,1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.6
1.3
1.6
2.3
5.1
3.2
4.8
5.4
27.6
$
$
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
1
3
(0
5
4
4
6
34
.4
.5
.6
.8
.9
.8
.1
.2
.2
.2)
.7
.3
.3
.6
.2
$
0.4
0,9
1.5
2.3
3.2
5.0
9.1
10.3
13.5
13.3
19.0
23.
27.
.3
.6
34.2
Based on data published by the Department of Commerce and
by EPA- all values converted to 1972 dollars through use
of EPA's sewerage construction cost indices and the dis-
continued Associated General contractor's Index of
Construction Costs.
Estimated funds required to "replace" existing facilities,
rather than add new capacity. Computed at a rate of 2
percent for sewers and 4 percent for plants, based on
estimates of the relative weight of each in each period.
Two aspects of this series of investments stand out. First,
the bulk of sewerage capital has been installed very
recently; almost 80 percent since 1929, 60 percent since
World War II, and more than 30 percent since 1961. Second,
the stock of capital in place is so large compared to annual
investments that replacement of existing facilities has
absorbed approximately 50 percent of all capital
expenditures since 1961. The current level of replacement
costs is close to $1 billion a year and rising in proportion
to the growth of the capital stock.
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Needs Survey Summary
Although the needs survey data are not used directly in
preparation of the comprehensive national cost estimates,
they do provide essential background for comparison with
actual estimated expenditures which are strongly influenced
by Federal subsidies. In this interest, the 1976 Needs
Survey is summarized below.
CATEGORIES OF NEED
The state estimates of the cost of constructing publicly-
owned treatment works needed to meet the 1983 goals of the
Act, while serving a projected 1990 population, are divided
into six major categories:
Category I. This includes the costs of facilities which
would provide a legally-required level of secondary
treatment, or best practicable wastewater treatment
technology (BPWTT). For the purpose of the survey, BPWTT
and secondary treatment were considered synonymous.
Category II. Costs reported in this category are for
treatment facilities that must achieve more stringent levels
of treatment. This requirement exists where water quality
standards require removal of such pollutants as phosphorous,
ammonia, nitrates, or organic substances.
Category IllA. These costs are for correction of sewer
system infiltration/inflow problems. Costs could also be
reported for a preliminary sewer system analysis and for the
more detailed Sewer System Evaluation Survey.
Category IIIB. Requirements for replacement and/or major
rehabilitation of existing sewage collection systems are
reported in this category. Costs were to be reported if the
corrective actions were necessary to the total integrity of
the system. Major rehabilitation is considered extensive
repair of existing sewers beyond the scope of normal
maintenance programs.
Category IVA. This Category consists of costs for
construction of collector sewer systems designed to collect
sewage and/or correct violations caused by discharge of
untreated wastewater into receiving water, seepage to waters
from septic tanks and the like, and/or to comply with
Federal, State or local regulations and special actions.
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Category IVB. This Category consists of costs of new
interceptor severs and pumping stations necessary for the
bulk transport of wastewater to treatment facilities.
Category v. Costs reported for this category are to
prevent periodic bypassing of untreated wastes from combined
sewers to an extent violating water quality standards or
effluent limitations. It does not include treatment and/or
control of stormwaters.
Category VI. Stormwaters". This includes the costs of
abating pollution from stormwater run-off channelled through
sewers and other conveyances used only for such run-off.
The costs of abating pollution from stormwaters channelled
through combined sewers which also carry sewage are included
in Category v.
RESULTS OF THE SURVEY
The results of the 1976 survey are presented in Table 3-4 in
aggregate national totals, by category. Various subtotals
are presented to give an indication of needs versus
priorities. For example, 36 percent of the $150 billion
total is required for stormwater control. State-by-state
data for the same categories may be found in the
aforementioned separate report.
Assessment of Backlog
A new addition to the Survey in 1976 was the assessment of
need for present populations (the backlog of need). Needs
for Categories l-v present populations are estimated to be
$75.1 billion, or 78 percent of the 1990 needs. Note that
because of their nature, 1990 Needs for Categories IIIA and
IIIB are almost exclusively all backlog needs as well. In
addition, because of the limitations of eligibility for
Category IVA as detailed in Section 211 of P.L. 92-500 and
the Construction Grant Regulations (40 CFR 35.925-13), all
of the Category IVA needs for 1990 are theoretically also
backlog needs. The differences, therefore, are most
graphically illustrated in Categories I, II, and IVB, where
backlog needs represent 61 percent of the 1990 needs.
3-55
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Table 3-4.
Summary Table of National Estimates for construction
of Publicly-Owned Wastevater Treatment Facilities
(Billions of 1976 dollars)
1990 EPA Backlog
Needs Category Assessment Estimate
I (Secondary Treatment) 12'.955 8.093
II (More Stringent Treatment) 21.279 11.313
IIIA (infiltration/inflow) 3.017 3.009
11IB (Replacement and/or'Rehab.) 5.486 5.365
IVA (New Collector Sewers) 16.979 16.979
IVB (New interceptor Sewers) 17.923 12.318
V (Combined Sewer Overflows) 18.262 18.262
Total I, II, IVB 52.158 31.762
Total I-V 95.902 75.142
VI (Control of Stormwater) 54.133 34.528
Total I-VI 150.035 109.670
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The costs reported for the backlog are sufficient only for
facilities necessary to serve the June 1975 populations.
They do not include any costs for reserve capacity which
would be required by the Act to be included in these
facilities for population growth beyond 1975. They also
exclude estimates for treatment plants and sewers that were
not necessary at all in 1975, but are projected to be
necessary for 1990 populations.
PROJECTED NATIONAL INVESTMENTS
Table 3-5 shows the anticipated (in August 1977) year-by-
year capital investment for municipal treatment facilities
as controlled by Federal grant awards. Some of the funds
expended during the period are from grants awarded prior to
P.L. 92-500, which were matched by state and local funds
averaging about 60 percent of total project costs. The $18
billion from P.L. 92-500, the $480 million from P.L. 94-447,
and the $1 billion from P.L. 95-26 require only 25 percent
state and local matching funds. These matching funds are
included in the totals.
The total investment over the decade of $26.4 billion is
seen to be 83 percent of the category I, II, and IVB backlog
total needs, but only 35 percent of the category l-V backlog
total and 24 percent of the category l-vi backlog total.
Therefore, EPA has recommended that the construction grant
program be augmented by $4.5 billion per year for the period
1978-1987. If Congress were to authorize and appropriate
these funds, the expenditure schedule shown in Table 3-6
would result, with the 1976-85 decade total being $63.3
billion, which exceeds the Category I, II, IVB (highest
priority) requirements for 1990 population.
3-57
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Table 3-r5.*
Projected Federal, State, and Local
Investment for Sevage Treatment Systems
Under Current Authority
(Millions of Dollars)
Fiscal Year Calendar Year
1976 3,628 1976 4,499
TQ 1,280
1977 5,623 1977 5,927
1978 6,837 1978 6,517
1979 5,558 1979 4,877
1980 2,833 1980 2,377
1981 1,010 1981 907
1982 598 1982 511
1983 251 1983 251
1984 251 1984 251
1985 251 1985 251
TOTALS 28,120 26,368
* The numbers in this table are based upon 1974 data. These
are the totals that were used in the estimation of total
costs that appear in the summary analyses. Table 3-5a
contains more recent estimates of the investment costs for
sewage treatment systems, based on 1977 data.
TQ * Transition Quarter
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Table 3-§a.*
projected Federal, State, and Local
Investment for Sewage Treatment Systems
Under Current Authority
'(Millions of (Dollars)
Fiscal Year
Calendar Year
1976
TQ
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
3,628
1,291
4,437
5,631
5,537
3,857
2,097
955
955
955
955
1976
1977
1978
.1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
4,215
4,735
5,608
5,116
3,416
1,811
955
955
955
955
TOTALS
30,299
28,721
*• -These data were collected in 1977. They represent the
latest estimates available. They are not reflected in the
total cost estimates in the summary portion of this
report. Publication deadlines precluded such inclusion.
TQ = Transition Quarter
3-59
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fable 3-6*
Projected Federalt State and Local
Investment for Sewage Treatment Systems Assuming
Increased Funding of $4.5 Billion per Year
for Period FY78-87
(Millions of Dollars)
Fiscal Year
Calendar Year
1976
TQ
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
TOTALS
3,638
1,280
5,623
7,063
7,105
6,927
6,157
6,438
6,438
6,438
6.438
63,535
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
4,499
5,983
7,083
7,059
6,735
6,227
6,438
6,438
6,438
6,438
63,338
* The numbers in this table are based upon 1974 data. These
are the totals that were used in the estimation of total
costs that appear in the summary analyses. Table 3-6a
contains the more recent estimates of costs based on 1976
data, it was impossible to incorporate the 1976 data
into the totals without causing undue delay in the
publication of this report.
3-60
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Table 3-6a*
Projected Federal, State and Local
Investment for Sewage Treatment Systems Assuming
Increased Funding of $4.5 Billion per Year
for Period FY78-FY87
(Millions of Dollars)
Fiscal Year
Calendar Year
1976
TQ
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
TOTALS
3,628
1,292
4,437
5,752
6,617
7,097
7,017
6,675
6,675
6,675
6,675
62,540
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
4,215
4,765
5,968
6,736
7,076
6,931
6,675
6,675
6,675
6,675
62,391
* These data were collected in 1977. They represent the
latest estimates available. They are not reflected in
the total cost estimates in the summary portion of this
report. Publication deadlines precluded such inclusion.
TQ = Transition Quarter
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Time Phasing and Annualization
of Costs
Annual costs are the sum of the annualized capital costs and
O&M costs. These annualiEed capital costs are calculated by
amortizing the investment over its economic life at a
discount rate of 10 percent. The economic life of treatment
plants is assumed to be 25 years and that of interceptor and
collector sewers is assumed to be 50 years.
As in the industrial sectors, the total capital-in-place
used to calculate annualized capital costs is the cumulative
investment beginning with calendar year 1971. The standard
capital recovery formula was used to calculate increase
annualized costs as a function of new investments.
Annual operation and maintenance costs are estimated as a
percent of total capital-in-place. For treatment plants,
the value is 7.5 percent, and for sewer investments the
value is one percent. The aggregate value varies, depending
on the estimated year-by-year expenditures in these two
categories.
Results of these analyses are found in Table 3 in the
Executive Summary.
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4. INDUSTRIAL CONTROL COSTS
Introduction
The extent of water pollution and the costs of treating it
vary significantly among industries and among the firms
within an industry; therefore, it is important to examine
the structure, production methods, sources of pollution,
effluent standards, and wastewater control technology for
each industry. The following sections of this chapter
briefly summarize the relevant characteristics of each
industry and report the estimated annual abatement costs
attributable to achieving full compliance with the 1977
and 1983 (BAT) effluent standards.
[NOTICE: The costs in this r'eport result from analyses
using 1975 data on industrial facilities and proposed
control technologies. Since that time more detailed studies
of particular industries have been completed; in addition,
the definition of BAT has been altered owing to concerns
about toxic materials in effluents. As a result the control
costs which appear in this Section must be viewed as having
only historical significance in many instances prior to
using these estimates for decision making purposes one
should check with the Office of water Quality Planning and
Standards in EPA to assess their currency].
Although 32 industries are summarized in the following
sections, this report does not purport to encompass all
industries or even all parts of any industry. only those
industries or parts of an industry which have significant
pollution problems, or for which effluent guidelines have
been defined, are included. In the interest of brevity,
only the most significant polluting segments of certain
industries have been discussed but costs have been estimated
for the entire industry. Footnotes to the cost table
following each industry summary will denote the assumptions
used in the cost calculations and the industry operations
that were evaluated.
Methodology
COST CONCEPTS
Only those costs attributable to standards imposed undsr
P.L. 92-5,00 have been reported. Not all water pollution
control costs are associated with this law- an industry may
perform some treatment irrespective of the standards imposed
under the legislation- changes in manufacturing processes
made on grounds of production efficiency or cost-
3-63
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effectiveness may result in higher levels of effluent
control or a reduction in the use of water; and some
investments in abatement equipment may have been made prior
to the enactment of the law.
The annual investment costs reported herein are not
expenditures; they are the amounts of total investment that
have been annualized; i.e., a capital recovery factor has
been applied to the total capital cost. Hence, in any year
the actual capital expenditure would far exceed 'annual
investment cost. (For purposes of feedback to the INFORUM
Module, expenditures have been used.)
The costs presented here are incremental. The( cost of
achieving 1977 Best Practicable Technology (BPT) standards
is the cost of going from the level of treatment in the base
year to the level of treatment defined as BPT in the
effluent guidelines. The cost of achieving Best Available
Technology (BAT) is the cost of going from the BPT level of
treatment (or if such a level is not specified, the base
year level of treatment) to the level of treatment defined
as 1983 BAT standard in the effluent guidelines. The cost
of achieving New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) is the
cost of going from a general industry-wide level of
treatment in the base year to the cost of meeting the
effluent guideline standards for new sources.
MODELING AN INDUSTRY
The essential estimating technique used in preparing cost
estimates was to define certain models or "typical" plants
and generalize from these plants to the total industry.
Cost sensitive parameters, such as wasteload, water flow,
water use efficiency, and treatment-in-place, were defined
for model or typical plants in EPA Development Documents.
In most cages, the model or typical plant data in these
documents were taken from actual plants. Unfortunately, the
lack of statistically adequate samples of the plants in most
industries render it impossible to know just how "typical"
the typical plant is in terms of cost-sensitive parameters.
Industries may be defined in various ways. In general, the
classification scheme used in the EPA Development Documents
was followed. A problem with any classification scheme
arises from the multi-product plant, for example, the
petrochemical plant which produces a variety of chemicals.
Such a plant may be subject to more than one effluent
guideline and may be classified in one of several different
categories. An attempt was made to avoid double-counting
these plants but no attempt was made to develop costs which
3-64
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adequately reflect the costs of treating residuals generated
by all products produced in these plants.
The plants in an industry have various options by which to
comply with the water pollution standards. In general they
may:
1. Fully treat their effluents.
2. Pretreat their effluents and discharge to a municipal
system.
3. Change their manufacturing process to eliminate,
recycle or reduce their effluents.
To estimate abatement costs for an industry, it is necessary
to know or assume what fraction of plants in an industry
take each option. Of course, there is no data as to what
proportion of the plants in an industry will take various
options. Therefore, judgments were made as to how the
industry will behave in this respect. Generally, plants
were assumed to take the lower cost option, but in no case
were plants assumed to close rather than comply with the
standards. Thus, the costs reported for industries where
plant closure is a persuasive strategy are overstated.
All industry costs were estimated using cost curves of the
standard form Y=AX , where Y is total cost, X is a measure
of plant size, and the exponent B defines how costs change
with changes in plant size.
In some cases, special detailed industry studies, which
produced more precise estimates than this simple model,
became available after the model calculations were
completed. These values are reported along with SEAS-
estimated values in the various industrial summaries which
follow.
Industry Cost Summaries
Table 4-1 lists the industries in the sequence for which
estimates have been developed by SEAS; this sequence is also
followed to arrange the Group I industry summaries that are
presented in this section. The distinction between Group I
and Group II is that Group I industries are considered major
polluting industries and Group II industries are considered
to be of lesser significance as polluters. Phase I and
Phase II refer to the manner in which the EPA Effluent
Guidelines Division has subdivided the industries for
purposes of developing effluent limitations guidelines.
3-65
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Generally, the most significant polluting segments of an
industry have been included in Phase I. Table 4-1 also
lists the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code for
each industry evaluated by SEAS.
Table 4-1.
Industrial Sector Coverage
Group I
Phase I
1. Feedlots x
2. Beet sugar x
3. Cane sugar x
4. Dairy x
5. Fruits and vegetables x
6. Grain mills x
7. Meat processing x
& Poultry
8. Seafood x
9. Leather x
10. Textiles x
11. Builders paper x
12. Pulp and paper x
13. Plywood, hardboard, and x
wood preserving
14. Inorganic chemicals x
15. Fertilizer x
16. Organic chemicals x
17. Phosphates x
18. Plastics and synthetics x
19. Petroleum x
20. Rubber x
21. Ferroalloys x
22. Iron and steel x
23. Bauxite x
24. Primary aluminum x
25. Secondary aluminum x
26. Primary & Secondary copper *
27. Primary lead *
28. Primary zinc *
29. Asbestos x
30. Cement x
31. Fiberglass x
32. Flat glass x
33. Pressed and blown glass *
34. Electroplating x
35. Steam electric power x
36. Soaps and detergents x
SIC
Phase II Number
* 0211
* 2063
N 2062
* 2021,2022,2023,2024,2026
x 2033
x 2043,2046
N 2011,2016
x 2091,2092
* 3111
225,227,228,2211,2231,2297
*
X
N
P
N
P
N
N
*
N
X
P
*
*
*
X
X
X
X
it
*
*
X
N
*
*
2661
2621
2432
2812,2816,2819
2873
2818
2874
2821,2823,2824
2911
2822,3011
3313
3312,3315,3316
2819
3334
3341
3331,3341
3332
3333
3293,3293
3241
3296
3211
3221,3229
3471
4911
2841
,2873
,3079
,3317
3-66
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Table 4-1. (Continued)
Industrial Sector coverage
SIC
Group II Phase I Phase II Number
Fabricated metal x * 34
Machinery x * 35
Electric and x * 36
electronic equipment
Transportation x * 37
equipment
Key:
x Complete coverage
* Not applicable
P Partial coverage
N No Coverage
As discussed in the Executive Summary of this report, BPT
and BAT effluent guidelines undergo continual revision/ as
new information and experience are obtained and new
administrative and judicial decisions are reached. The
estimates contained herein do not purport to be the most
precise estimate of projected costs available at press time,
but represent a snapshot of conditions, knowledge, and
assumptions existing as of 1976. Further, the estimates do
not reflect the removal of toxic materials which may be
required by BAT regulations revised subsequent to 1976.
Current specific industry cost estimates are available
through the Agency's Office of water and Hazardous
Materials.
3-67
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FEEDLOTS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Feedlots is a
term which applies to many different types of facilities
used to raise animals in a "high density" situation. For
the purpose of establishing effluent limitations guidelines,
the term feedlot has been defined by the following three
conditions!
» A high concentration of animals held in a small area
for periods of time in conjunction with the production
of meat, milk, eggs, and/or breeding stock; and/or the
stabling of horses;
• The transportation of feed to the animals for
consumption•
• By virtue of the confinement of animals or poultry, the
land Or area will neither sustain vegetation nor be
available for crop or forage production.
The effluent limitations guidelines issued to date (phase I)
by the EPA cover feedlots for beef cattle, dairy cattle,
swine, chickens, turkeys, sheep, ducks, and horses. A
variety of facility types are included within the definition
of feedlots; these include: open lots, housed lots, barns
with stalls, free stall barns, slotted floor houses, solid
concrete floor houses, a variety of poultry houses, and wet
lots for ducks containing swimming areas.
Raw materials used in the feedlots industry are simply feed,
water, and in some cases, bedding. The production processes
are defined by the type of facilities employed, and consist
mostly of delivering supplies to the animals and carrying
away manure and litter.
Although most of the feedlots are classified as small, the
bulk of production for many animals is accounted for by the
very large producers. Only 1.4 percent of the fed-cattle
feedlots accounted for over 60 percent of 1972 production.
Although this concentration is not so dominant in some of
the other animal groups, the trend toward larger units of
production is common in all segments of the industry.
Many producers have diversified into grain production for
direct marketing and production of other livestock and
poultry. Some are involved in feed grain production, feed-
manufacturing, feeder-cattle production, and/or meat
packing.
3-68
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Ownership of commercial feedlots ranges from sole-
proprietorships to corporate farms, including co-operatives.
The feedlot operator may own the animals being fed or/
particularly in the case of fed-cattle, may custom-feed
animals owned by others.
Projections of production capacity through 1983 for the
cattle, dairy, and hog segments of the feedlots industry
anticipate that the trend is toward fewer numbers of
production units but the very large units will continue to
increase their output volume. Similar projections are not
available for the remaining segments of the feedlots
industry. However, the growth of production of major
agricultural commodities for the period 1970-85 has been
estimated. The percentage changes are as follows: beef and
veal (33 percent)- pork (13 percent); milk (2 percent);
chicken (36 percent); turkey (44 percent); eggs (10
percent); and lamb and mutton (65 percent), in all segments
of the feedlots industry, it is anticipated that the trend
toward larger feedlots will continue. No growth projections
are available for ducks or horses.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Animal feedlots wastewater
originates from two principal sources:
» Rainfall runoff
• Flush or washdown water used to clean animal wastes
from pens, stalls, milk center areas, houses,
continuous overflow watering systems or similar
facilities, spillages, duck swimming areas, washing of
animals, dust control, etc.
The amount of wastewater varies considerably, depending upon
the way manure, bedding, etc., are stored and handled; in
the outdoor feedlots, rainfall and soil characteristics
determine wastewater characteristics.
Animal feedlot wastes generally 'include the following
pollutants:
• Bedding or litter (if used) and animal hair or feathers
• Water and milking center wastes
• Spilled feed
• Undigested and partially digested food or feed
additives
• Digestive juices
3-69
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a Biological products of metabolism
* Micro-organisms from the digestive tract
« Cells and cell-debris from the digestive tract
« Residual soil and sand.
The primary discharge constituents of concern for pollution
control can be described as organic solids, nutrients,
salts, and bacterial contaminants. The following specific
pollutant parameters have been identified as being of
particular importance: BOD, COD, fecal coliform, total
suspended solids, phosphorus, ammonia and other nitrogen
forms, and dissolved solids.
With the exception of the duck feedlot subcategory, EPA has
concluded that animal feedlots can achieve a BPT level of
waste control which prevents the discharge of any wastes
into waterways by July 1, 1977, except for overflows due to
excessive rainfall or similar unusual climatic events (10-
year, 24-hour storm as defined by the National weather
Service). The effluent limitations for discharges from duck
feedlots have been set at 0.9 Kilogram of BOD5^ per day for
every 1,000 ducks being fed, and a total viable coliform
count less than that recommended by the National Technical
Advisory Committee for shellfish-producing waters which is
400 fecal coliform per 100 milliliters. The effluent
limitations guidelines for all subcategories effective July
1, 1983 (BAT), and for all new sources (NSPS) are still at
no discharge of wastewater pollutants, except for overflows
due to rainfalls in excess of the 25-year, 24-hour storm (as
defined by the National Weather Service).
Control Technology and Costs. In-process technologies used
for the control of wastewaters from animal feedlots include
site selection, selection of production methods, water
utilization practices, feed formulation and utilization,
bedding and litter utilization, and housekeeping procedures.
all of these are important in minimizing wastewater flow and
pollutants.
The various technologies available for end-of-process
treatment may be classified as either partial or complete.
Partial technologies are defined as those that produce a
product or products which are neither sold or completely
utilized on the feedlot. Thus, gasification and
incineration of manure are considered partial technologies,
because a significant quantity of ash must be disposed of.
Lagoons, trickling filters, and other biological systems are
classified as partial technologies because the effluent may
3-70
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not be suitable for discharge, and in all cases sludge
disposal is necessary. Complete treatment technologies
produce a marketable product or a product that can be
entirely reused at the feedlot, and which has no appreciable
byproducts, residues, or polluted water discharge. The
dehydration and sale of manure, for example, is a complete
technology. The spreading of animal wastes on land for crop
fertilization is also a .complete control technology.
The 1977 BPT guidelines for all animal feedlots (except
those for ducks), the 1983 BAT, and the NSPS guidelines all
assume the use of complete control technology. The BPT
guidelines are based on the containment of all contaminated
liquid runoff and the application of these liquids, as well
as the generated solid wastes, to productive cropland at a
rate which will provide moisture and nutrients that can be
utilized by the crops. Technologies applicable to BAT
guidelines include some of the complete technologies, such
as wastelage, oxidation ditch-mixed liquor refeed, and the
recycling of wet-lot water for ducks, which are not yet
fully available for general use. The BPT guidelines for
duck feedlots require the equivalent of primary settling,
aeration, secondary settling, and chlorination prior to
discharge.
Comprehensive and reliable data are not available on the
number of feedlots that will require construction of
pollution control facilities to meet the effluent
limitations guidelines. It is generally accepted that
housed (total confinement) and pasture operations can
generally meet the guidelines without new investment or
operating cost outlays.
Furthermore, open or partially-open feedlots may be situated
so that they are not point-source dischargers. Finally,
some feedlots have already installed control facilities
which meet the guidelines' requirements. Recent estimates
suggest that only 10 to 40 percent of all feedlots will
require additional investment for control facilities.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million'1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $49.9
Incremental BPT O&M $ 4.0
3-71
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Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the new data are changes in Feed lot
inventory estimates, differences in beef production
estimates and breadth of industry coverage (SEAS considers
beef only,
also).
while G&P considers small animal production
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. PesKin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-72
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Table 4-1-1.
Feedlots
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (Mil lion Heads) 11.9 14.6
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.21%
15.5
I
>J
U)
EFFLUENTS (1,OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Nutrients
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Nutrients
1977
1983
1985
330
136
470
60
82
34
117
15
.93
.32
.96
.20
.88
. 14
.95
.08
385.86
158.95
549. 14
70.20
O
O
O
O
4O2
165
572
73
O
O
O
O
.43
.78
.72
.21
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
128.28 (8PT) 0.0 (BAT) 65.06
O.OO O.OO O.OO
15.92 24.23 46.91
O.OO O.OO O.OO
144.19 24.23 111.97
-------
Table 4-1-1. (Continued)
Feedlots
Industry Data Summary
I
^4
It*
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - Continued
Annual ized Costs
Annual 1 zed Capital'
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
1977
18.96
7.94
0.0
7.94
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
22.14 23.34 2O2.19'
9.9O 1O.51 89.16
0.0 O.O 0.0
9.9O 1O.51 89.16
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
O.O
O.O
0.0
26.89
O.O
O.O
O.O
32.05
0.0
0.0
O.O
O.O
O.O
0.0
33.85 291.35
1 Annual 1 zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in -the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent Is denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Feedlots industry Includes beef cattle feedlots that use storage lagoons and spray
Irr igatIon.
-------
BEET SUGAR INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There were 52
beet sugar plants owned by 11 companies in 1973. An
additional two plants began processing in 1974 and a third
began operations in 1975.
The size range is classified according to production
capacity, small (2,086 metric tons per day), medium (2,086-
3,537 metric tons per day), and large (3,537 metric tons per
day).
Typical plant production is estimated to be 3,265 kkg sliced
beets per day. The main products from this industry are
refined sugar, dried beet pulp (used for animal feed), and
molasses.
The beet sugar processing industry is a subcategory of the
sugar processing industry. Water is commonly used for six
principal purposes: (1) transporting (fluming) of beets to
the processing operation, (2) washing beets, (3) processing
(extraction of sugar from the beets), (4) transporting beet
pulp and lime mud cake waste, (5) condensing vapors from
evaporators and crystallization pans, and (6) cooling.
Transporting beets into the plant is accomplished by water
flowing in a narrow channel (flume) that removes adhered
soil. The beets are then lifted from the flume and spray
washed. Flume water accounts for about 50 percent of the
total plant water consumption.
Process water is associated with the operations of
extracting sugar from the beets. Diffusers draw the raw
juice from the beets into a solution which contains 10-15
percent sugar. Exhausted beet pulp is later pressed to
remove moisture. This exhausted pulp water is usually
recycled back to the diffuser.
Lime mud cake waste results when lime is added to the raw
juice and the solution is pumped with carbon dioxide gas,
causing calcium carbonate to precipitate. The sludge formed
contains suspended impurities from the juice.
Water from barometric condensers is employed in the
operation of pan evaporators and crystallizers in the
industry. Water is used in large quantities, but the
quality is, not critical since the source of cooling water
comes from wells or streams. Condenser water is usually
cooled by some device and recycled for use in the plant.
3-75
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in addition to the above, about 40 percent of the plants
employ the Steffen process to recover additional sugar.
Syrup remaining from the above processes is concentrated to
form molasses, which is desugared by the Steffen process as
a method of sugar recovery. Water is used to dilute the
molasses and calcium oxide is added to the solution, causing
precipitation. The precipitation process produces the
Steffen filtrate and recovered sugar,- the filtrate may be
directly discharged as a waste or it may be mixed with beet
pulp to produce byproducts.
The sugar industry is protected and operates on a quota
system (domestic and foreign) established by the Federal
Sugar Act of 1948 and amended in July 1962. Under this Act,
the total national sugar requirement is projected annually
and sales quotas to domestic producers are adjusted
accordingly. The Act also includes a provision for the
industry to increase its production at a rate of 3 percent
annually. Areas of future growth will be along the Red
River between northern Minnesota and North Dakota, and the
Columbia River Basin.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The major waste sources stem
from the primary production processes. These include:
(!) beet transport and washing, (2) processing (extraction
of sugar from the beets), (3) carbonation of raw juice, and
(4) Steffen processing (for those plants involved in
desugaring of molasses). Barometric condensers are also a
wastewater source. The primary wastes resulting from the
beet sugar processing industry are: flume water, lime mud
caKe from carbonation process, barometric condenser water,
and Steffen process dilution water used to dilute molasses
for desugarization.
The basic parameters used in establishing water effluent
guidelines to meet BPT are: BOD5, total suspended solids,
pH, fecal coliform, and temperature.
Control Technology and Costs. Presently, 11 of the 52
operating plants are achieving zero discharge of wastewaters
to navigable waters. A total of five plants discharge flume
and/or condenser water to municipal sewage systems.
Current pollution control technology does not provide a
single operation that is completely applicable under all
circumstances. The major disposal methods are: reuse of
wastes, coagulation, waste retention ponds or lagooning, and
irrigation.
BPT and BAT are extensive recycle and reuse of wastewaters
within the processing operation with no discharge or
3-76
-------
controlled discharge of process wastewater pollutants to
navigable waters. To implement this level of technology,
the following are required:
* Flume waters. Recycling with partial or complete land
disposal of excess wastewater. This includes:
(1) screening, {2} SS removal and control in the
recirculating system, and (3) pH control for
minimization of odors, bacterial populations, foaming,
and corrosive effects.
• Barometric condenser water. Recycling for condenser or
other inplant uses with land disposal of excess
condenser water.
« Land disposal of lime mud slurry and/or reuse or
recovery.
« Return of pulp press water and other process water to
the diffuser.
• Use of continuous diffusers.
* Use of pulp driers.
• Handling all miscellaneous wastes (washings) by
subsequent treatment and reuse or land disposal.
» Entrainment control devices on barometric condensers to
minimize entrainment.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Total Existing New
incremental BPT investment $11.5 9.6 1.9
Incremental BPT O&M $ 0.7 0.6 0.1
3-77
-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are different
assumptions for industry growth, differences in attribution
of O&M to federal laws, different assumptions of land costs,
different model plant cost assumptions, and different
distribution of investment costs over industry.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M, Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-78
-------
Table 4-2-1.
Beet Sugar
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (MT/Day) 173,025. 218,841.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.49%
229.725.
I
--J
\D
EFFLUENTS (1,OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BODS
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BODS
1977
125.67
33.46
31.46
33. 5O
1983
156.61
41 .70
O
10.41
1985
164.12
43.69
O
O
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83 1976-85
1 .66
3.59 (BPT) 0.0 (BAT) 1
0 . OO 0 . OO O . OO
0.40
1 .as
5.28
8.34
10.41
18.75
10.03
15.30
26.99
-------
Table 4-2-1. (Continued)
Beet Sugar
Industry Data Summary
Co
8
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs
Annual 1zed Capital'
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
COST IN YEAR
1977
O.52
4.24
0.0
4.24
1983
1 .62
5.69
O.O
5.69
1985
1 .84
5.95
0.0
5.95
1976-85
1 1 .68'
5O.83
O.O
SO. 83
O.58
1 .01
1 .60
6.36
1 .94
1 .69
3.63
10.93
1 .97
1 .75
3.72
11 .51
15.30
20.87
36. 17
98.68
' Annualized on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade,
1 O&M costs In any year are relative to Investment made In the year plus all pr.lor year Investments
commencing In 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made in that year.
• User charges denote the O&M component of the municl-pal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent Is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Beet Sugar industry products are refined sugar, dried beet pulp for animal feed, and molasses
-------
CANE SUGAR REFINING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are a
total of 24 cane sugar refineries in the continental United
States and Hawaii. Of these, 18 are crystalline, 4 are
liquid, and 2 are combination crystalline-liquid refineries.
Crystalline cane refineries are classified into two size
ranges: 172-499 and 635-3,175 metric tons per day of melted
sugar, and there is one range for liquid cane sugar
refineries: 272-771 metric tons per day of melted sugar.
The cane sugar refining industry consists of two
subcategories: (1) crystalline cane sugar refining, and
(2) liquid cane sugar refining. Liquid sugar production is
essentially the same as crystalline sugar production except
that the primary product is not recrystallized.
Raw sugar consists primarily of crystals of sucrose and
small percentages of dextrose and levulose, with various
impurities such as particles, organic and inorganic salts
and micro-organisms. A film of molasses is contained in raw
sugar. Crystalline raw sugar is washed to remove part of
the molasses film, placed into solution, taken through
various purification steps, and finally recrystallized.
The major processes involved in cane sugar refining are:
(1) melting, {2} clarification, (3) decolorization,
(4) evaporation, (5) crystallization, and (6) finishing.
Melting is the first step where raw crystals are put into
syrup solution by heating and then fine-screened to remove
coarse materials. Clarification is the step where screened
melt liquor still containing fine suspended and colloidal
matter is treated chemically to form precipitation of
organics. Decolorization involves physical absorption of
impurities and color using bone char as a primary media to
remove color. Evaporation consists of concentration of the
decolorized sugar liquor and sweet water in continuous type
evaporators. Crystallization of the concentrated sugar
liquor and sweet waters occurs in batch-type evaporators
called vacuum pans which must be supersaturated in order to
entrain the sugar on the pan. Finishing provides drying or
granulation which removes moisture and separates the
crystals that are later cooled and fine-screened.
The molasses produced as a byproduct of cane sugar refining
is used as a sweetener, as an ingredient for animal feed,
for the making of alcohol, for organic chemicals, and other
uses.
3-81
-------
It is estimated that the capacity of the cane sugar industry
in 1971 was 30,539 metric tons per day of melted sugar.
waste Sources and Pollutants. Major process waste from cane
sugar refining include char wash, wastewater from
decolorization, and activated carbon process water from non-
char refineries. Most of the waste streams produced in
other -processes are recovered as low purity sweet water.
Wastewater from barometric condenser cooling is usually
recirculated and represents a minor waste stream.
Sources of wastewater pollutants are associated with the
water used as an integral part of the process (primarily the
decolorization techniques of either bone char washing or
activated carbon washing), the result of entrainment, of
sucrose into barometric condenser cooling water, and the
water used to slurry the filter cake.
Parameters under effluent guidelines for meeting BPT, BAT,
and NSPS include BOD5^, suspended solids, and pH. Additional
parameters of significance include COD, temperature,
sucrose, alkalinity, total coliforms, fecal coliforms, total
dissolved solids, and nutrients.
Currently, 50 percent of crystalline sugar refineries and 60
percent of liquid cane sugar refineries discharge into
municipal systems. The average wastewater discharged is
38.4 mVfckg from crystalline sugar refineries, and 18.8
m3/kkg from liquid cane sugar refineries.
Control Technology and Costs. Current technology for
control and treatment of cane sugar refinery wastewaters
consists primarily of process control (recycling and reuse
of water, prevention of sucrose entrainment in barometric
condenser cooling water, recovery of sweet waters),
impoundage (land retention), and disposal of process water
to municipal sewer systems.
Best Practicable Technology consists of a combination of in-
plant changes and end-of-pipe treatment. In-plant changes
include: (1) collection and recovery of all floor drainage,
(2) use of improved baffling systems, demisters, and/or
other control devices to minimize sucrose entrainment in
barometric condenser cooling water, and (3) dry handling of
filter cakes after desweetening with disposal to sanitary
landfills, or complete containment of filter cake slurries.
End-of-pipe treatment consists of biological treatment of
all wastewater discharges other than uncontaminated (non-
contact) cooling water and barometric condenser cooling
water.
3-82
-------
Best Available Technology is essentially the same but, in
addition to BPT, the following are applicable: (1) recycle
of barametric condenser cooling water by utilizing either a
cooling tower or pond, (2) biological treatment of the
assumed 2 percent blowdown from the cooling system, -and
(3) sand filtration of effluent from the biological
treatment system. Essentially, the same control technology
is applicable to both crystalline and liquid cane sugar
refineries.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&F estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Phase I &
Phase II Phase I Phase II
incremental BPT investment $21.6 7.7 13.9
Incremental BPT O&M $ 6.4 2.2 4.1
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are industry
definition expansion (G&P includes the Phase II segment of
the industry), and differences in attribution of O&M to
federal laws. Note that Phase I estimates from both studies
are, nonetheless, within an acceptable range of
computational variance.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-83
-------
Table 4-3-1. (Continued)
Cane Sugar Refining
Industry Data Summary
w
oo
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annualtzed Costs
Annual(zed Capital1
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
Grand Totals
0.2O
O.97
8.31
1977
0.96
2.88
O.O
2.88
O.44
O.74
1 . 18
5.02
COST IN YEAR
4.93 6.O9
7.68 11.29
22.31
1983
2.89
1 .43
1 .21
2.63
9.84
3O.63
1985 1976-85
3.O4
1 .45
1 .23
2.68
12.19
18.91'
4.32 6.47 4O.OO
O.O O.O O.O
4.32 6.47 4O.OO
11 .29
15. 13
26.42
85.34
1 Annual 1zed on-slte and pretreattnent costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
' The decade total of annualIzed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure In any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Cane Sugar Industry Includes crystalline cane sugar refining and liquid cane sugar refining.
-------
DAIRY PROCESSING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. In 1970, there
were 5,241 dairy plants reported in the United States. The
size of each plant is determined by the number of employees
required, where a small operation has 1-19 employees, a
medium one has 20-99 employees, and the largest over 100
employees.
The dairy processing industry comprises 12 product-related
operations: (1) receiving stations, (2) fluid products,
(3) cultured products, (4) cottage cheese/ (5) butter,
(6) natural cheese, (7) ice cream, (8) ice cream mix,
(9) condensed milk, (10) dry milk, (11) condensed whey, and
(12) dry whey.
A great variety of operations are employed in the dairy
products industry, but for simplification, they are
considered to be a chain of operations involving:
(1) receiving and storage, (2) clarification,
(3) separation, (4) pasteurization, and (5) packaging.
Receiving and storage of raw materials is conducted by using
bulk carriers, pumps, and refrigerated tanks. Clarification
is the removal of suspended matter by centrifugation.
Separation is the removal of cream by centrifugation.
Pasteurization is accomplished by passing the material
through a unit where it is first rapidly heated and cooled
by contact with heated and cooled plates or tubes.
Packaging involves the final handling of the finished
product prior to storage.
In 1970, a total of 51 billion kilograms of milk was
processed. Of this total, 36.5 billion kilograms of final
products were produced.
waste Sources and Pollutants. Materials are lost through
direct processing of raw materials into finished products
and from ancillary operations. The former group consists of
milk, milk products, and non-dairy ingredients (sugar,
fruits, nuts, etc.), while the latter consists of cleaners
and sanitizers used in cleaning equipment and lubricants
used in certain handling equipment. All of these contribute
to the release of organic materials, which exert a high BOD,
and suspended solids to the process water. Phosphorous,
nitrogen, chlorides, heat, and dairy fat can also be found.
The major waste sources in the dairy products processing
industry come from the following: (1) washing and cleaning
out of product remaining in tanks and.piping performed
routinely after every processing cycle, (2) spillage
3-86
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produced by leaks, overflow, freezing-on, boiling-over and
careless handling, (3) processing losses, (4) wastage of
spoiled products, returned products, or by-products such as
whey, and (5) detergents used in the washing and sanitizing
solutions.
The primary waste materials that are discharged to the waste
streams in practically all dairy plants include: (1) milk
and milk products received as raw materials, (2) milk
products handled in the process and end-products
manufacture, (3) lubricants (primarily soap and silicone
based) used in certain handling equipment, and (4) sanitary
and domestic sewage from toilets, washrooms, and kitchens.
Other products, such as non-dairy ingredients (sugar,
fruits, flavors, and fruit juices) and milk by-products
(whey, buttermilk) are potential waste contributors.
The basic parameters used in establishing effluent
guidelines are: BOD^, suspended solids, and pH. it is
recommended that the pH of any final discharge be within a
range of 6.0-9.0.
Control Technology and Costs. Dairy wastes are usually
subjectable to biological breakdown. The standard practice
to reduce oxygen-demanding materials in the wastewater has
been to use secondary or biological treatment consisting of:
activated sludge, trickling filters, aerated lagoons,
stabilization ponds or land disposal. Tertiary treatment
(sand filtration, carbon adsorption) is practically nil at
the present time.
BPT and BAT consists essentially of the same practices. In-
plant control includes improvement of plant maintenance,
waste monitoring equipment and quality control improvements.
End-of-pipe control includes biological treatment (activated
sludge, trickling filters or aerated lagoons) followed by
sand filtration. BAT, in addition to BPT, includes multi-
media filtration.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $54.3
Incremental BPT O&M $10.6
3-87
-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. The principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the new data are substantially
different estimates "capital-in-place" for particular
segments of the industry and projected growth patterns
within the industry.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-88
-------
Table 4-4-1.
Dairy
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL 1977 1983 1985
Capacity (1.0OO kg ME/Day) 865,439 948,840 981,318
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 1.45%
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr) 1977 1983 1985
1971 Controls:
w Fluid M1lk, Cottage Cheese:
I TSS 0.93 1.O2 1.O5
00 BOD5 3.10 3.39 3.49
Butter:
TSS 2.64 3.35 3.54
BOD5 6.48 8.22 8.68
Natural, Processed Cheese:
TSS O.4O O.49 O.52
BOD5 7.5O 9.15 9.61
Ice Cream & Frozen Desserts:
TSS 0.38 0.43 0.44
BOD5 0.75 O.85 0.88
Legislated Controls:
Fluid M1lk, Cottage Cheese:
TSS 0.63 0.27 0.17
BOD5 1.94 1.O6 O.87
Butter:
TSS 0.68 O.O2 0.02
BOD5 2.04 0.19 0.04
Natural, Processed Cheese:
TSS 0.15 O.O2 0
BOD5 2.40 0.33 0.17
Ice Cream & Frozen Desserts:
TSS 0.38 0.18 0.11
BOD5 0.76 0.52 0.43
-------
Table 4-4-1. (Continued)
Dairy
Industry Data Summary
O)
vo
o
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
384.65
O.O
2.32
95.63
482.60
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs 1977
Annualized Capital1 5O.88
O&M'
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
Grand Totals
On-slte Treatment
46.65
0.0
46.65
43.38
76.02
119.4O
216.93
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83 1976-85
(BPT) 119.45 (BAT) 322.23
0.0 O.O
146.45 193.53
769.32 1,129.67
1,035.22 1,645.42
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
85.85 92.04 675.67'
71.26 114.31 662.72
O.O O.O 0.0
71.26 114.31 662.72
142.49
112.5O
254.99
412.11
144.82
113.11
257.93
1,129.67
1,472.93
2.602.60
464.28 3,940.99
Annual 1 zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
The decade total of annualIzed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
-------
Table 4-4-1. (Continued)
Dairy
Industry Data Summary
' O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
' User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Dairy industry products and operations include fluid milk, cottage cheese, butter, natural
cheese, ice cream and frozen desserts, and condensed and evaporated milk.
-------
FRUITS AND VEGETABLES INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The fruits and
vegetables processing industry includes processors of canned
fruits and vegetables, preserves, jams, jellies, dried and
dehydrated fruits and vegetables, frozen fruits and
vegetables, fruit and vegetable juices, and specialty items.
The effluent limitations guidelines issued by the EPA are
limited to processors of apple products (except caustic
peeled and dehydrated products), citrus products (except
pectin and pharmaceutical products), and frozen and
dehydrated potato products. The principal items in each
group are as follows:
• Apples: slices, sauce, and juice (cider)
* Citrus: juice, segments, oil, dried peel, and molasses
• Potatoes: chips, frozen products, dehydrated products,
canned hash, stew, and soup products.
The manufacturing processes employed, which depends upon the
particular product, include: harvesting, receiving, storage,
washing and sorting, peeling and coring, sorting, slicing,
segmenting or dicing, pressing or extraction /for juice
products), cooking, finishing, blanching (for potatoes),
juice concentration, dehydration, canning, freezing, can
rinsing and cooling, and cleanup. Many processes previously
performed by hand, such as peeling and coring, have been
automated. Peeling, for example, may be performed
mechanically or caustically, a process in which the fruit or
vegetable is dipped in a hot lye solution to loosen and
soften the peel, which is then removed by brushes and water
spray.
The canning and freezing industry is characterized by a
large number of small, single-plant firms. These firms
share a very small segment of the total market and have very
little influence on industry prices and total supply. Over
the past 20 years, there has been a steady trend in the
industry to fewer large plants from many smaller operations.
The four largest firms in the canning, freezing, and
dehydrating industries account for approximately 20, 25, and
35 percent, respectively, of the total value of industry
shipments. Although a large proportion of the plants are
relatively old, the industry has generally maintained modern
technology through renovation and equipment modernization.
It is likely that the trend toward fewer plants is also
expected to continue. New large plants will probably
3-92
-------
continue to replace the production capacity of the small,
older plants that will close.
Waste sources and Pollutants, water is used extensively in
all phases of the food processing industry, it is used as:
« A cleaning agent to remove dirt and foreign material
• A heat transfer medium for heating and cooling
• A solvent for removal of undesirable ingredients from
the product
• A carrier for incorporation of additives into the
product
• A method of transporting and handling the product.
Although the steps used in processing the various
commodities display a general similarity, there are
variations in the equipment used and in the amount and
character of the wastewaters produced. For example, caustic
peeling produces a much higher pollution load than does
mechanical peeling. Similarly, water transport adds a great
deal to a plant's wastewater flow compared to dry
transportation methods.
The pollutant parameters that have been designated by EPA as
of major significance for apple, citrus, and potato
processors are BOD, suspended solids, and pH. Minor
pollutant parameters include COD, total dissolved solids,
ammonia and other nitrogen forms, phosphorus, fecal
coliforms, and temperature.
Control Technology and Costs. Control technologies
applicable to wastewaters from the fruit and vegetable
processing industry consist of both in-plant (or in-process}
technologies and as conventional end-of-pipe waste treatment
technologies. in-plant control methods include field
washing of crops, substitution of dry transport methods for
flumes, replacing conventional hot water and steam blanching
methods by fluidized bed, microwave, hot gas, or individual
quick blanching methods, using high pressure nozzles and
automatic shutoff valves on hoses, reuse of process waters
using counter-current flow systems, recirculation of cooling
waters, etc., and minimum use of water and detergents in
plant cleahup.
End-of-pipe treatment technologies used in the fruits and
vegetables processing industry generally include preliminary
screening, equalization, catch basins for grease removal,
3-93
-------
sedimentation and clarification, followed by a biological
treatment system such as activated sludge, trickling filter,
anaerobic lagoons or aerated lagoons. Where necessary,
neutralization and chlorination are also included. Other
technologies that are or may be used by the industry include
solids removal by air flotation or centrifugal separation,
chemical coagulation and precipitation, biological treatment
through the use of a rotating biological contactor, sand or
diatomaceous earth filtration, and other advanced treatment
technologies. The liquid portion of cannery wastes can be
"completely" treated and discharged through percolation and
evaporation lagoons or by spray irrigation.
Because the wastes from fruit and vegetable processing
plants are primarily biological, they are compatible with
municipal sewage treatment systems, therefore, discharge
into municipal systems is also a practicable alternative for
fruit and vegetable processors.
BPT guidelines are based upon the average performances of
exemplary biological treatment systems. Thus, the
technology called for includes preliminary screening,
primary settling (potatoes only), and biological secondary
treatment. Cooling towers for the recirculation of weak
cooling water is considered BPT for the citrus industry.
In-plant control methods should include good housekeeping
and water use practices. No special in-plant modifications
are required. Land treatment methods such as spray
irrigation are of course, not excluded from use.
BAT and NSPS guidelines assume the use of BPT, plus
additional secondary treatment, such as more aerated lagoons
and/or shallow lagoons and/or a sand filter following
secondary treatment; disinfection {usually chlorinationl is
also included. Management controls over housekeeping and
water use practices are assumed to be stricter than BPT.
Although no additional in-plant controls are required,
several modifications may be economically more attractive
than additional treatment facilities. These include:
recycling raw material wash water, utilization of low water
useage peeling equipment, recirculation of cooling water,
and utilization of dry cleanup methods, where suitable land
is available, land treatment is not only recommended from
the discharge viewpoint, but will usually be more economical
than other treatment methods.
3-94
-------
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesXin (G&P)*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $35.2
Incremental BPT O&M $ 4.4
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are changes in
abatement strategy: G&P assume some plants use land
disposal, some use activated sludge and some use "no cost"
methods, whereas SEAS assumes all facilities currently
without controls will install activated sludge systems which
have costs two to six times higher.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-95
-------
Table 4-5-1.
Fruits and Vegetables
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (Million Liters/Day) 2.42O 3,157
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 4.29%
3,395
VO
EFFLUENTS (LOCO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BODS
1977
62.55
46.22
1983
81.OO
59.85
1985
86.85
64. 18
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BODS
27.24
21. 7O
14.77
23.03
11.74
23.58
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-slte Treatment
P re t rea tment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
6O.82 (BPT) 99.69 (BAT) 13O.14
O.OO O.OO O.OO
16.25 1O2.14 139.64
28.2O 226.62 333.O8
1O5.27 428.45 6O2.86
-------
Table 4-5-1.
Fruits and Vegetables
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (Million Liters/Day) 2,420 3,157
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 4.29%
3,395
U>
Ch
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BODS
1977
62.55
46.22
1383
81. OO
59.85
1985
86.85
64. 18
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BODS
27.24
21 .70
14.77
23.03
11.74
23.58
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
6O.82 (BPT) 99.69 (BAT) 13O.14
O.OO O.OO O.OO
16.25 1O2.14 139.64
28.2O 226.62 333.O8
1OS.27 428.45 6O2.86
-------
Table 4-5-1. (Continued)
Fruits and Vegetables
Industry Data Summary
u>
10
-j
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs 1977
Annual1zed Capital' 10.13
0&M>
On-s1te Treatment 28.54
Pretreatment 0.0
Totals 28.54
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery 12.64
User Charges' 21.65
Totals 34.29
Grand Totals 72.97
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
36.67 4O.68 238.7OZ
45.59 62.72 4O7.26
0.0 0.0 0.0
45.59 62.72 407.26
42.14
36.17
78.31
42.90
37 .26
80. 15
333.OB
451.22
784.29
16O.56 183.55 1.43O.26
' AnnualIzed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful Hfe
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade, total of annual 1 zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
' User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Fruits and Vegetables Industry includes all aspects of canned and preserved food processes,
and frozen packaged foods.
-------
GRAIN MILLING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. For purposes of
establishing water effluent guidelines, the grain milling
industry is divided into four major subcategories: wet corn
milling, dry corn milling, bulgur wheat flour milling, and
parboiled rice milling. Two other subcategories, normal
wheat flour milling and normal rice milling, have been
excluded because they do not use process water.
wet corn milling comprises three basic process operations:
milling, starch production, and syrup manufacturing. The
finished products of starch and corn sweeteners are used for
paper products, food products, textile manufacturing,
building materials, laundries, home uses, and miscellaneous
operations.
Dry corn milling process separates the various fractions of
corn, namely the endosperm, brain, and germ. These
fractions are later ground and sifted after separation. The
final products include: corn meal, grits, flour, oil, and
animal feed.
Bulgur wheat flour milling produces parboiled, dried, and
partially debranned wheat for use in either cracked or whole
grain form. Bulgur is produced primarily for the Federal
Government as part of a national effort to utilize surplus
wheat for domestic use and for distribution to
underdeveloped countries.
Parboiled rice milling utilizes rice that is carefully
cleaned, parboiled by soaking in water, and then cooked to
gelatinize the starch. After cooking, the water is drained
and the parboiled rice is dried before milling. The bran
and germ are later separated from the milled rice. The
final product has superior cooking qualities because
vitamins from the bran are forced into the endosperm.
The use of dry corn milling products in direct food has
declined significantly over the past 20 years but this
decline has been offset by the growing use of the products
as ingredients in processed foods. Consumption of bulgur
wheat flour milling products has been increasing in
developing nations due to the high nutritional values of
bulgur wheat. Rice milling including parboiled products are
60 percent exported and 40 percent used for domestic trade.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Principal wastewater sources
in wet corn milling are modified starch washing, condensate
from steepwater evaporation, mud separation, syrup
3-98
-------
evaporation, animal feeds, and corn steeping. Dry corn
milling process wastes originate from infrequent washing of
corn. Bulgur wheat flour milling process wastewater stems
from steaming and cooking of bulgur, although these
quantities are relatively small. Parboiled rice milling
process wastewater stems from steeping or cooking
operations, and at least one plant uses wet scrubbers for
dust control, which generates an additional source of
wastewater.
The basic parameters used to define wastewater
characteristics are BOD15, suspended solids and pH. About
one-fourth of the wet corn milling plants discharge directly
into surface water. The majority of the plants in the other
subcategories discharge into municipal systems.
Control Technology and Costs. Except for wet corn milling,
little attention has been focused on either in-plant control
or treatment of the wastewaters. In many instances, the
treatment technologies developed for wet corn milling can be
transferred to the other industry subcategories. Current
in-plant control consists of water recycling cooling systems
(barometric condensers), and some plants use biological
treatment (activated sludge).
Best practicable technology for the four subcategories
consists of the following:
Phase I
• Wet corn milling. Equalization and activated sludge
• Dry corn milling. Primary sedimentation and activated
sludge
• Bulgur wheat flour milling. Activated sludge, and
• Parboiled rice milling. Activated sludge.
Best available technology for the four subcategories is deep
bed filtration in addtion to BPT. New source performance
technology is the same as BAT.
Since the wet corn milling industry contributes the largest
amount of wastewater discharges, control costs for this
industry are of primary concern.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P>*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
3-99
-------
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Phase I &
Phase II Phase I Phase II
Incremental BPT investment 0. 0. 0.
Incremental BPT O&M 0. 0. 0.
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Phase II costs are assumed to be zero for in-
house treatment by both studies. All costs associated with
Phase II production are municipal treatment changes. The
G&P study states that only negligible costs will be incurred
by Phase I production, since only one of the plants not
using municipal systems to discharge wastes has not fully
installed the necessary equipment. SEAS lists five plants
requiring equipment, with 44 percent already installed prior
to standard implementation.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, December 1975.
(Revised January 1976).
3-100
-------
Table 4-6-1.
Grain Milling
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity:
Phase I (Dry 1.OOO Liters/Day) 45,623.
Phase II (kkg/Day) 8.584.40O.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period, 1976-1985:
Phase I = 13.02%
Phase II = 4.83%
55,535.
11.641,7OO.
58,273.5
12,598,000.
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BODS
1977
10.70
15. 14
1983
13.87
19.65
1985
14.70
2O.83
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BODS
5.76
6.57
2.69
3.62
1 .49
2.79
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase I
Investment
Existing Plant's
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
12.27
0.0
O.54
14.53
27.34
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
(BPT)
0.0
0.0
6.24
124.94
131.18
(BAT)
1976-85
5.46
O.O
7.3O
183.30
196.O6
-------
LO
I
I-1
O
N)
Table 4-6-1. (Continued)
Grain Mil 11ng
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Phase I (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annualized Capital1
O&M3
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
COST IN YEAR
1977
1
2.
O
2
6,
12,
18.
.68
. 11
.O
. 11
,74
.23
.97
1983
2.
2.
0.
2,
23.
21 ,
44.
.51
.85
,0
.85
,31
.02
.33
1985
2
3
0
3
23
21
45
.64
.06
.0
.06
.75
.71
.47
1976-85
21 .
25.
0.
25,
183
256
44O
.44'
23
O
.23
.30
.87
. 17
22.76
49.68
51 . 16
486.83
1 Annualfzed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annualIzed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs In any year are relative to investment made 1n the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure In any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Grain Milling (Phase I), industry Includes wet-corn milling processes.
-------
U)
I
o
W
Table 4-6-1. (Continued)
Grain M11 Hng
Industry Data Summary
Phase II
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annual1zed Costs
Annual 1zed Capital1
O&M1
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
o.o
o.o
0.0
1 .02
1 ,02
1977
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
0.57
1 .30
1 .86
(BPT) 0.0 (BAT)
O.O
O.O
12.68
12.68
COST IN YEAR
1983
0.0
O.O
O.O
O.O
2.39
2.48
4.88
O.O
O.O
O.O
18.42
18.42
1985
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
2,45
2.67
5. 12
1976-85
0.0'
O.O
O.O
O.O
18.42
29.03
47.45
Grand Totals
1.86
4.88
5. 12
47.45
-------
Table 4-6-1. (Continued)
Grain Mill1ng
Industry Data Summary
Phase II (Continued)
I
O ' Annual1zed on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on "the assumption of a 15 year useful life
•^ at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs 1n any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year,
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Grain Milling (Phase II) industry includes ready-to-eat cereals, wheat starch, and
gluten production processes.
-------
MEAT PROCESSING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. According to the
Department of Agriculture, there were 5,991 meat
slaughtering plants in the United States on March 1, 1973.
Commercial slaughter of beef, hogs, calves, sheep, and lambs
totaled 26.9 million metric tons in 1972 according to the
USDA. Of these plants, 84 were large plants [over 90,800
metric tons annual live weight killed (LWK)], 309 medium
plants (11,340-90,247 metric tons annual LWK), and the rest
were small. Of the small plants, North Star Research
Institute estimated 5,200 to be "locker" plants (very small
meat packing plants that slaughter animals and may produce
processed meat products which are usually stored in frozen
form). The other 400 plants are assumed to be plants
between 453.5-11,340 metric tons annual LWK.
A total of 90 percent of the industry's production is
accounted for by 15 percent of the plants. Although the
total number of "plants in North Star's slaughterhouse and
packinghouse categories is only 793 (15 percent of 5,993 is
899), they assumed that these plants produce 90 percent of
the output, and locker plants account for the remaining 10
percent.
The meat processing industry comprises four subcategories:
simple slaughterhouse, complex slaughterhouse, low-
processing packinghouse, and high-processing packinghouse.
The plants in this industry range from those that carry out
only one operation, such as slaughtering, to plants that
also carry out commercial meat processing.
Simple slaughterhouses have very limited byproduct
processing and usually no more than two other operations
such as: rendering, paunch and viscera handling, blood
processing, or hide processing. Complex slaughterhouses
carry out extensive byproduct processing with at least three
of the aforementioned operations. Low process packinghouses
process only animals killed at the plant; normally they
process less than the total kill. High process
packinghouses process both animals slaughtered at the site
and additional carcasses from outside sources.
Income from meat slaughtering and meat processing plants in
1972 was $23.8 million. Factors serving to restrain
potential growth of the American meat packing industry
include higher meat prices, removal of import quotas, and
the availability of synthetic (soybean protein) substitutes.
The trend is -for any new plants to be larger and more
specialized (such as large beef or pork slaughterhouses) and
3-105
-------
to be located closer to the animal supply (movement from
urban to rural areas).
Waste Sources and Pollutants. wastewaters from
slaughterhouses and packinghouses contain organic matter
including grease, suspended solids, and inorganic materials
such as phosphates, nitrates, and salt. These materials
enter the waste stream as blood, meat and fatty tissue, meat
extracts, paunch contents, bedding, manure, hair, dirt,
curing and pickling solutions, preservatives, and caustic or
alkaline detergents.
Water is a raw material used in the meat processing industry
to cleanse products and to remove unwanted material. The
primary operations where waste water originates are: animal
holding pens (waste from water troughs, washdown, and liquid
wastes), slaughtering (killing, blood processing, viscera
handling and offal washing, and hide processing), and clean-
up.
The basic parameters used to define waste characteristics
are BOD5_, suspended solids, grease, and ammonia (NSPS and
BAT). The total number of municipal dischargers is 70
percent of the number of plants. The average wastewater
flows for simple slaughterhouse, complex slaughterhouse,
low-process packinghouse, high-process packinghouse are
1.17, 4.40, 3.22, and 4.55 million liters per day,
respectively.
Control Technology and Costs. Current end-of-pipe treatment
for direct dischargers assumes that all plants have in-plant
controls for primary treatment, and a second system
employing anaerobic and aerobic lagoons. Dissolved air
flotation is used for primary treatment, either alone or
with screens; however, 30 percent of the plants use a catch
basin. Since a small percentage of the industry has more
advanced secondary treatment systems (such as activated
sludge, trickling filters or spray irrigation) and a small
percentage of meat packers have no waste treatment beyond
primary treatment, it can be assumed that the typical plant
today is characterized by primary treatment plus anaerobic
and aerobic lagoons.
Best practicable Technology consists of end-of-pipe
treatment represented by anaerobic plus aerated lagoon and
aerated lagoon with efficient solid liquid separation.
Disinfection by chlorination is also required. Land
disposal, when available, may be an economical option. End-
of-pipe treatment is assumed to be preceded by in-plant
controls: reduction of water use through shut-off valves,
extensive dry cleaning, gravity catch basins, blood recovery
3-106
-------
and dry dumping of paunch waste. NSPS are the same for 1977
with an additional requirement for control of ammonia.
In addition to BPT, Best Available Technology suggests
chemical additions prior to dissolved air flotation,
nitrification denitrification (or ammonia stripping), and
sand filtration following Secondary Treatment.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Meats Meats
Phase I Phase II Rendering Poultry
Incremental BPT
Investment 90.5 3.4 1.8 21.1
incremental BPT O&M 7.2 0.6 0.4 3.4
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. The SEAS cost estimates for Meat Processing
include Phase I only. For slaughterhouses and packing
houses, both studies assumed the same number of plants and
discharge levels to municipalities in the base data year. A
major difference is that G&P includes estimates for Locker
Plants in the Phase I costs, which SEAS does not. Locker
Plants amount to almost half of the G&P Phase I estimates.
The remaining differences are largely due to variances in
capital in place assumptions between the two stuides.
Poultry Processing estimates are within an acceptable range
of computational variance.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-107
-------
Table 4-7-1.
Meat Processing and Poultry
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
o
CO
Capaci ty:
Meat (kkgs/Day)
Poultry (kkg/Day)
305,373.
50,340.
372,322.
61,365,
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.21%
EFFLUENTS (l,OOOMT/Yr) 1977 1983
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD (Poultry only)
Oils and Greases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD (Poultry only)
Oils and Greases
395,52O.
65.188.
1985
106.51
182. OS
68.31
3O4 . 3 1
4O.61
56. 7O
21 .52
82.35
129.
221 .
83.
370.
11 .
8.
4.
3.
74
79
2O
67
57
94
78
56
137.6O
235.24
88.25
393. 14
8.70
6.86
4.23
2.35
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Meat Processing
Investment
Existing Plants
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
17.54
O.OO
29.36
58. 19
105.1O
1978-83
1976-85
(BPT) 3O2.O7 (BAT) 311.61
O.OO O.OO
58.29 1O9.O3
498.97 731.46
859.33 1,152.1O
-------
Table 4-7-1. (Continued)
Meat Processing and Poultry
Industry Data Summary
w
I
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Meat Processing (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs 1977
Annual 1zed Capital' 6.17
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment 16.27
Pretreatment O.O
Totals 16.27
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery 26.99
User Charges' 49.O5
Totals 76.O3
Grand Totals 98.47
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
53.54 56.87 274.64'
49.O9 22O.67 643.O1
O.O O.O O.O
49.O9 22O.67 643.O1
92.81 94.47
78.74 8O.70
171.55 175.17
731.46
996.70
1,728.16
274.19 452.7O 2,645.81
1 Annuallzed on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annual 1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
* O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made 1n the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Meat Processing industry includes slaughterhouse and packinghouse processing operations.
-------
Table 4-7-1. (Continued)
Meat Processing and Poultry
Industry Data Summary
I
1—•
t-1
o
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Poultry
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annual1zed Costs
Annual 1 zed Capital1
O&M'
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
1978-83
1976-85
17. 8O
O.OO
8.52
25.42
51 .74
1977
3.46
3.74
0.0
3.74
11 .90
22. 07
33.96
(8PT) 38
O
12
223
274,
COST IN
1983
1O. 16
5.87
0.0
5.87
41 .66
36.42
78. OS
.26 (BAT) 46.84
.00 0.00
.71 24. 7O
.63 327.58
,6O 399.12
YEAR
1985 1976-85
10.79 65.60'
19.75 75.53
O.O O.O
19.75 75,53
42.43 327.58
37.92 454.51
8O.35 782.09
Grand Totals
41 . 17
94. 1 1
11O.89
923.22
-------
Table 4-7-1. (Continued)
Meat Processing and Poultry
Industry Data Summary
GO
' Poultry (Continued)
' Annual 1zed on-sfte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
' The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
' O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing In 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponerit is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Poultry industry includes prepareation of most domestic fowl products, such as frozen ducks,
turkeys, chickens, and game birds.
-------
SEAFOOD PROCESSING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are
approximately 1,800 seafood processors located in the United
States, including tuna processing plants located in Puerto
Rico and American Samoa. The crab, shrimp, and catfish
processers have a large number of small producers. Some of
these are associated with large national seafoods,
processors, but there is no significant degree of
concentration in these industries. In the crab processing
industry, there seems to be an increasing number of
multiplant firms and a growing importance of large plants.
The catfish processing industry is very small and
fragmented. This study's count of 30 plants does not
include a number of very small "backyard" operations which
are thought to be scattered throughout the South. In
general, these segments of the seafood processing industry
can be characterized as possessing many small,
underutilized, old plants that in some cases compete with
efficient, low-cost foreign producers.
On the other hand, the tuna industry is dominated by five
firms that operate 14 large-scale plants which account for
over 90 percent of the industry production; these firms are:
Bumble Bee, Del Monte, Starkist, van Camp, and Westgate-
California.
In general, the volume of production is dependent upon the
amount of seafood harvested, both domestic and imported.
Recent analyses by the U.S. National Marine Fisheries
Service indicate that there is little potential available
for continuing to increase either harvests or imports of
crab, shrimp, or tuna. Significant increases might come if
the limit of the U.S. territorial waters is extended to 200
miles, or if significant technological breakthroughs are
achieved in deep ocean fishing; but these conditions are not
anticipated.
Because catfish processors are currently plagued with very
low utilization of capacity, the same expectation of "no
growth" holds for this segment of the seafood processing
industry.
The effluent limitations guidelines issued for the seafood
processing industry by the EPA cover the processing of crab,
shrimp, tuna, and farmed catfish. All methods of
preservation, fresh-pack, freezing, canning or curing, are
included.
Processing seafood involves variations of a common sequence
of operations: harvest, storage, receiving, preprocessing
3-112
-------
(washing, thawing, etc.), evisceration, precooking, picking
or cleaning/ preservation, and packaging. Many of the
operations, such as picking, shelling, and cleaning, have
been mechanized, but much of the industry still depends on
conventional hand operations.
For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the seafood processing industry has been divided
into 14 subcategories. These guidelines are based upon the
type of product, the degree of mechanization, and the
location or remoteness of the processing plant. Remote
Alaskan plants have been placed in a separate subcategory
because their isolated locations render most wastewater
treatment alternatives infeasible because of the high cost
of overcoming engineering obstacles and the undependable
access to transportation during extended severe sea or
weather conditions.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Pollution sources in the
seafood processing industry include both the fishing boats
(mostly their discharged bilge water) and the processing
plants themselves. water uses in the processing plants
include: washing the seafood, plants, and equipment; flumes
for in-plant transport of product and wastes,- live holding
tanks; cooling and ice making,- cooking,- freezing; and
brining.
The solids and effluents from all fish and shellfish
operations consist of:
• Solid portions consisting of flesh, shell, bone,
cartilage and viscera.
• Hot and cold water (fresh or seawater) solutions
containing dissolved materials (proteins and breakdown
products),
• Suspended solids consisting of bone, shell or flesh,
• Foreign material carried into the plant with the raw
material.
The following pollutant parameters are controlled by the
effluent limitations guidelines for the seafood processing
industry: 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), total
suspended solids (TSS), and oil and grease. Pollutants of
peripheral or occasional importance that are not
specifically controlled by the guidelines include high
temperatures1, phosphorus, coli forms, chloride, chemical
oxygen demand, settleable solids, and nitrogen.
3-113
-------
control Technology and Costs. Control technologies
applicable to the seafood processing industry include both
in-plant- changes and end-of-pipe treatment. Basic in-plant
changes include:
• Minimizing the use of water by substituting dry
handling for flumes, using spring-loaded hose nozzles,
etc.
« Recovery of dissolved proteins by precipitation from
effluent streams, enzymatic hydrolysis, brine-acid
extraction, or through the conventional reduction
process for converting whole fish or fish waste to fish
meal.
* Recovery of solid portions for use as edible product or
as byproducts by mechanical deboning and extruding, and
by shellfish waste utilization.
Very few end-of-pipe waste treatment systems are currently
installed in the seafood processing industry. However, the
essentially bio-degradable nature of the wastes allows for
the easy application of conventional treatment methods.
These include screening and sedimentation to remove
suspended solids- air flotation and skimming to remove heavy
concentrations of solids, greases, oils, and dissolved
organics; biological treatment systems, such as activated
sludge, rotating biological contactors, trickling filters,
ponds, and lagoons to remove organic wastes; and land
disposal methods where land is available.
In general, BPT guidelines call for in-plant "good
housekeeping" practices, but do not assume significant
equipment changes. End-of-pipe technologies associated with
BPT are represented by simple screening and grease trap
methods, with dissolved air flotation for tuna plants and
grinders or comminutors, followed by discharge to deep water
for remote Alaskan processors where adequate flushing is
available. BAT and NSPS guidelines place much more emphasis
on in-plant changes, including in-process modifications
which promote efficient water and wastewater management to
reduce water consumption, recycling some water streams, and
solids or byproduct recovery where practicable. End-of-pipe
technologies associated with BAT and NSPS guidelines include
more extensive use of dissolved air flotation, plus the
addition of aerated lagoons and activated sludge treatment
for tuna processors in 1983.
3-114
-------
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesKin (G&P)*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $39.5
Incremental BPT O&M $ 3.9
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the new data are different
estimates of "capital-in-place" and plant inventory
estimates (SEAS calculates costs for 875 plants, but G&P
uses a baseline of 330 plants).
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-115
-------
Table 4-8-1.
Seafood Processing
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity (kkg/Day)
Canned & Cured
Fresh & Frozen
1977
58,449.
382,587.
1983
76.238.
499,072.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 4.29%
1985
81,977.
536,649.
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
Bases
011s and Greases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
Bases
Oils and Greases
1977
1983
1985
23.35
3O.72
.08
11 .44
16.79
26. CO
.04
7.23
30.24
39.78
. 1O
14.82
1O.34
17.62
.04
4. 16
32.42
42.65
. 11
15.89
8.02
13. 9O
.04
3.26
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase I
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
266.21
O.OO
62.96
O.O
329.17
1978-83
1976-85
(BPT) 511.24 (BAT) 641.20
O.OO 0.OO
37O.98 5O1.92
O.O O.O
882.22 1,143.13
-------
Table 4-8-1. (Continued)
Seafood Processing
Industry Data Summary
I
(_.
»—
'•J
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs
Annual 1zed Capital1
O&M1
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
43.28
88.78
O.O
88.78
O.O
0.0
0.0
132.O6
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
129.27 133.O3 841.48'
145.53 28O.83 1,444.28
0.0 O.O 0.0
145.53 28O.83 1,444.28
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
274.8O 413.85 2.285.76
1 Annual1zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
* O&M costs In any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Seafood (Phase I) industry includes fresh and frozen packaged fish products.
-------
I
H--
(-•
00
Table 4-8-1. (Continued)
Seafood Processing
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase II
Investment
Existing Plants
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annual1zed Costs
Annual 1 zed Capital
O&M3
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
91 .31
0.00
20.27
0.0
1 1 1 .58
1977
14.67
28. 13
O.O
28. 13
O.O
O.O
0.0
(BPT) 120,
0,
119.
O.
239.
COST IN
1983
46. 18
46.58
O.O
46.58
0.0
O.O
O.O
.69 (BAT)
.00 0,
.01 161.
.0 0.0
.70 326.
YEAR
1985
5O.61
54. 16
O.O
54. 16
O-O
O.O
0.0
165.21
00
12
33
1976-85
3 1 7 . 59 '
389.33
O.O
389.33
O.O
O.O
0.0
Grand Totals
42.8O
92.77
1O4.77 706.92
-------
Table 4-8-1. (Continued)
Seafood Processing
Industry Data Summary
Phase II (Continued)
' Annual 1zed on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annual 1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs 1n any year are relative to investment made 1n the year plus all prior year investments
commen*jng in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
• User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Seafood (Phase II) Industry includes canned and cured seafood processing operations.
-------
LEATHER TANNING & FINISHING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The leather
tanning and finishing industry is engaged in converting
animal skins into leather. Cattlehides constitute
approximately 90 percent of the tanning done in the United
States, followed by sheepskins, lambskins, and pigskins.
Other types of skins or hides processed include goat, kid,
hairsheep, horse, and a variety of skins on a very limited
basis, such as deer, elk, moose, antelope, rabbit,
alligator, crocodile, seal, shark, and kangaroo. Once
tanned and finished, the leather from these skins is shipped
by the industry to process manufacturers for the production
of shoes, coats, gloves, and other leather products. Three
primary processes are involved in the production of finished
leather: beamhouse• tanhouse and/or retan, color and fat-
liquor; and finishing.
The beamhouse process consists of receiving hides that are
either cured, green-salted, or brined. Trimming, washing
and soaking, fleshing (removal of fatty tissue), and
unhairing are the steps that prepare hides for processing.
The tanhouse process involves placing the hides in solutions
of ammonium salts and enzymes in order to de-lime, reduce
swelling, peptize fibers, and remove protein degradation
products. Prior to tanning, hides are pickled in a brine
and acid solution, and then tanned using either chrome or
vegetable tannins. The tanned hide is later split to form a
grainside piece and a flesh side layer. The retan, color
and fat-liquor process imparts different characteristics to
the finished leather. Bleaching and coloring using acids
and dyes, along with applying oils to replace the lost
natural oils, allow the leather to be pliable.
The finishing process, or last step, includes drying, wet-in
coating, staking or tacking, and plating. The wastes from
these processes may be disposed of in either wet or dry
form.
The industry may be divided into major subcategories based
on the primary processes employed; these subcategories are
presented in Table 4-9-1.
3-120
-------
Table 4-9-1.
Leather Tanning Industry Subcategories
Leather
Subcategory Beamhouse Tanning Finishing
1 Pulp Hair Chrome Yes
2 Save Hair Chrome Yes
3 Save Hair Vegetable Yes
4 Hair previously Previously Yes
removed tanned
5 Hair previously Chrome Yes
removed or re-
tained
6 Pulp or Save Chrome or No
Hair no tanning
Source: EPA Development Document, March 1974.
The two processes used for unhairing are save hair and pulp
hair. Save hair is a process that loosens hair by lime and
sharpeners (sodium hydrosulfite, etc.); the hair is later
removed from the hide by machines. Pulp hair is similar to
save hair except that higher chemical concentrations are
used; the proteinaceous hair is solubilized sufficiently to
disperse it in the processing liquid.
There were 513 industry establishments operating in 1972;
estimations are that 176 tanneries use wet process
operations, and 225 to 260 plants are engaged in dry process
finishing operations on leather which was tanned at some
other location. Some 40 to 90 firms are estimated to be
converters and miscellaneous small operators. Approximately
80 percent of the plants in the industry fall in
Subcategory 1.
in 1972, a total of 36.5 million cattle (90 percent of the
total hides tanned) were slaughtered in the United States;
about 47 percent of these hides went to foreign tanners.
The number of tanneries has steadily decreased since the
turn of the century. For example, in 1967, there were 474
companies operating 519 establishments in the leather
3-121
-------
tanning and finishing industry (including dry process
tanners) as compared to 521 companies and 578 establishments
10 years earlier.
After reaching a peak volume in 1967 of 32.4 million cattle
hide equivalents, volume has dropped sharply each year. in
1972, volume had •declined to 24.0 million cattle hide
equivalents or a decrease of 25 percent from the peak year.
Two major factors have contributed to this decline:
• Increased exporting of raw hides for tanning abroad.
• Increased competition from synthetic leathers, both in
terms of physical product and price.
The records of the Tanner's Council of America indicate 33
plants (representing a tanning capacity of 5.3 million
hides) ceased operations between 1968 and June of 1974.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The main sources contributing
to the total waste load come from the processes used in the
tanning and finishing of hides. In order to define waste
characteristics, the following basic parameters were used to
develop guidelines for meeting BPT and BAT: BOD5_, suspended
solids, total nitrogen, chromium, oil and grease (hexane
solubles), sulfide, and pH.
Currently, about 60 percent of industry waste is discharged
to municipal sewerage systems, while the remainder is
discharged directly to surface waters. It is estimated that
60 percent of the wet-process tanners discharge to municipal
sewers.
Control Technology and Costs. Waste treatment practices in
the leather tanning and finishing industry vary widely.
Some tanneries use no treatment or only simple screening.
Others have employed activated sludge, trickling filters,
spray irrigation, and lagoon systems. In-plant waste
control procedures have included efforts by some tanneries
to conserve water and materials. Although the potential for
materials conservation has not been fully realized,
recycling and recovery techniques have generally been
applied only in those areas where direct cost savings are
demonstrated. BPT guidelines for plants discharging to
waterways call for a major removal of BOD5_ and suspended
solids through the installation of preliminary treatment
(chromium removal, screening, equalization and primary
clarification) and secondary biological treatment (activated
sludge, aerobic or anaerobic lagoons), in addition to major
removals of BOD5_ and suspended solids, the BAT guideline
requires reductions in sulfide and nitrogen through use of
3-122
-------
aeration and mixing with a carbon source to cause
denitrification and filtration of the final effluent using
deep-bed, mixed-media filters to remove suspended solids.
New source performance standards are the same as BPT for
existing plants.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesXin (G&P)1-. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $79.2
Incremental BPT O&M $ 9.1
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are changes in plant
inventory estimates, different estimates of "capital-in-
place", different assumptions for industry growth, and
different engineering cost estimates for O&M in BPT and
pretreatment, The pretreatment investment estimates are
very close for both studies; G&P lists 31.2 million dollars
and SEAS forecasts 30.2.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-123
-------
Table 4-9-2.
Leather Tanning and Finishing
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (Hides/Day) 145,100 176,500
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 1.88%
169,250
I
i-1
ts>
It*
EFFLUENTS (l,OOOMT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
Dissolved Sol ids
Nutrients
Oils and Greases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
Nutrients
Oils and Greases
Dissolved Sol ids
1977
1983
1985
43.49
23.50
.90
10.05
8.74
16.51
8. 18
10.O1
2.62
.28
47.74
25. 8O
.99
11.03
9.6O
3.02
1.71
2.89
.50
.05
45.63
24.65
.94
10.54
9. 17
1.21
1. 1O
,21
.43
.04
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
82.06 (BPT)
3O.18
8.36
3.40
124.OO
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83 1976-85
187.54 (BAT) 229.66
O.OO O.OO
5O.75 5O.75
26.63 39.19
264.92 319.6O
-------
Table 4-9-2. (Continued)
Leather Tanning and Finishing
Industry Data Summary
I
I-1
to
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs 1977
Annua11 zed Capital' 15.86
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment 9.59
Pretreatment 5.82
Totals 15.41
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery 1.52
User Charges* 2.56
Totals 4.O8
Grand Totals 35.35
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985
47.18 47.18
4.95
4.11
9.06
76.08
5.03
4.07
9.1O
1976-85
308.56'
12.75 29.87 15O.23
7.O9 6.79 66.64
19.84 36.66 216.87
39. 19
52.18
91 .37
92.94 616.80
1 Annual 1zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
] O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made In the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing In 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Leather industry includes tanning and finishing operations.
-------
TEXTILES INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The U.S. textile
industry includes over 7,000 establishments engaged in the
processing of wool, cotton, and man-made fibers into
finished fabrics. Man-made fibers, including rayon,
acetate, nylon, acrylic, polyester, polypropylene, and glass
fibers, are the most important raw materials, accounting for
over 60 percent of the rav materials consumed by the
industry in 1972. Cotton accounted for about 36 percent,
and wool only 2 percent of the total raw materials used.
The natural fibers are supplied to the industry in staple
form,* or short fibers. Man-made fibers are supplied as
either staple or continuous filament. In either case, the
fiber is spun into yarn, which is simply a number of
filaments twisted together. The yarn is then woven or knit
into a fabric, which is then dyed and treated to impart such
characteristics as shrink resistance, crease resistance,
etc. The finished fabric is then delivered to the
manufacturers of textile products, either directly or
through converters, jobbers, and wholesalers.
In transforming fibers into the finished fabrics, two types
of processes are used: wet and dry. The dry processes
include spinning, weaving, knitting, bonding, and
laminating,- wet processes include scouring, desizing,
mercerizing, bleaching, dyeing, and finishing.
For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the textiles industry has been divided into the
following eight subcategories, based upon the raw material
used and the process employed:
• Wool scouring
« Wool finishing
• Dry processing
* Woven fabric finishing
• Knit fabric finishing
• Carpet mills
« Stock and yarn dyeing and finishing
• Commission finishing.
wool scouring is the process of washing the raw wool with
detergent or solvent to remove natural grease, soluble
salts, and dirt. Wool finishing operations include
carbonizing (removing vegetable matter by treating the wool
with sulfuric acid at high temperatures), rinsing and
neutralization, fulling (chemical treatment followed by
washing and mechanical working to produce controlled
3-126
-------
shrinkage), dyeing and/or whitening or bleaching, and moth
proofing.
Dry processing mills include greige mills (any mill making
unfinished fabric) and producers of coated fabrics,
laminated fabrics, tire cord fabrics, felts, carpet tufting,
and carpet backing.
Woven fabric finishing operations include desizing {acid or
enzyme treatment to remove chemicals applied prior to
weaving), scouring, bleaching, mercerizing {treatment with
sodium hydroxide followed by neutralization and washing to
increase dye affinity and add tensile strength),
carbonizing, fulling, dyeing, printing, resin treatment,
waterproofing, flame proofing, soil repellency, and a number
of special finishes.
The main difference between woven and knit fabric finishing
is that the sizing/desizing and mercerizing operations are
not required for knits. Stock and yarn dyeing and finishing
requires mercerizing but not sizing/desizing. Carpets are
made from yarn through a dry operation called tufting, which
is followed by printing or dyeing, washing, and drying. The
processing operations performed in commission finishing may
be any sequence of the operations discussed above.
In general, the industry is highly fragmented, with many
small plants and a few very large establishments. In most
industry subcategories, the small plants account for over
half of the annual production.
Although the total industry production has grown at a rate
of approximately 3 percent per year, this growth has been
confined to the production of man-made fabrics and carpets.
The cotton and wool segments of the industry have declined
drastically over the years, resulting in a decline in the
number of establishments, which has been caused in part by
the switch to synthetic fibers and in part by an increase in
imported textiles. U.S. imports of textile products and
clothing have risen from $1.5 billion in 1967 to $4.0
billion in 1974; this trend is expected to continue through
1980.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. As described above, the
processing and finishing of textile fabrics involve a number
of wet processes that introduce a wide variety of animal and
vegetable- wastes, dyes, bleaches, and other chemicals into
the waste streams. For example, raw wool scouring produces
pollutants removed from the wool, such as oil and grease;
sulfur, phenolic, and other organic materials that are
separated from the sheep urine, feces, blood, etc.;
3-127
-------
insecticides,- and dirt and grit. In addition, the scouring
liquor is a significant pollution source in itself, along
with the chemicals used to recover oil and grease from the
liquor. The scouring and rinsing of detergents, chemicals,
etc., from intermediate and final products are common to
most finishing operations. About 80 percent of all the
water used in textile wet processing is used for removing
foreign material—either that carried on the raw material,
or that resulting from processing operation. Another major
wastewater source in the textile industry is the dyeing
operation. Exhausted dye baths are generally discharged to
the sewers, as are the scouring and rinsing waters used
before and after the dyeing operation.
in most of the wet processes, chemicals (generally in an
aqueous solution) are brought into contact with the fabrics
and are washed or rinsed away, the waste streams that are
generated contain a wide variety of pollutants. The
principal source of effluent from dry processes is the
washing and cleaning of equipment.
For the purposes of establishing effluent guidelines for the
textile industry, the following wastewater parameters have
been defined to be of major polluting significance? total
suspended solids, COD, oil and grease, color, chromium,
sulfide, phenol, fecal coliform, and pH. Minor pollution
parameters include total dissolved solids, nitrogen,
phosphates, temperature (heat), organic chemicals, and heavy
metals.
Control Technology and Costs. The technology for control
and treatment of waterborne pollutants in the textile
industry can be divided into two broad categories! in-
process and end-of-pipe. in-process control depends upon
two major conditions:
• Altering the processes that generate water pollutants,
• Controlling water use in non-process as well as process
areas.
Specific in-process control practices that are applicable to
the textile industry include: effective water management and
conservation programs, control and containment of leaks and
spill6; segregation of waste streams; use of "double laced"
box washers and counter-current flows to reduce the amount
of water used in washing and rinsing operations; use of
solvents instead of water as media in processing operations;
recycling some wastewater streams,- and increased recovery
and reuse of processing chemicals.
3-128
-------
At present, the textile industry is primarily concerned with
end-of-pipe treatment of its wastewaters because most
textile wastes are amenable to treatment by biological
methods that include activated sludge, trickling filters,
anaerobic and aerobic lagoons, and rotating biological
contactors. Advanced wastewater. treatment methods also
applicable to the industry include:
• Phase Change Systems-distillation, freezing.
• Physical Separation Systems-filtration, reverse
osmosis, ultrafiltration, electrodialysis.
• Sorption Systems-activated carbon, ion exchange,
polymeric adsorption resins.
• Chemical Clarification-chemical.coagulation.
The recommended technology for achieving BPT guidelines
relies primarily upon the use of biological treatment
systems. Recommended technology includes preliminary
screening, primary settling (wool scouring only), latex
coagulation (carpet mills and dry processing only), and
secondary biological treatment. Chlorination is also
included for dry processing mills. Strict management
control over housekeeping and water use practices is also
assumed. BAT guidelines are based upon the above, plus the
use of advanced treatment methods such as multi-media
filtration and chemical coagulation and clarification
following biological treatment. Chlorination is included
for all subcategories. NSPS are based on BPT plus the use
of multi-media filtration.
Many textile mills already have primary or secondary
treatment systems in operation, and they discharge their
wastewaters into municipal sewer systems. Data from EPA and
from the American Textile Manufacturers Institute indicate
that about 35 percent of the water used is now discharged to
municipal sewers, 15 percent receives . no treatment, 5
percent receives primary treatment, and 45 percent receives
secondary treatment.
3-129
-------
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT investment $134.0
Incremental BPT o&M $ 14.8
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below/ with projected pollutant discharges associates with
these costs. As can be noted, both estimates are within an
acceptable range of computational variance. Some minor
differences, however, are attributable to different
techniques in estimating wasteloads per product unit.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-130
-------
Table 4-1O-1.
Textiles
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity (1.0OO kg/Day)
Annual Growth Rate Oven the Period
EFFLUENTS (1.0OO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
8005
COD
011s and Greases
(Wool Scouring only)
D1sso1ved So1 Ids
(Knit, Woven Wool, and
Raw Stock only)
Legislated Controls:
TSS
80D5
COD
011s and Greases
(Wool Scouring only)
Dissolved Sol Ids
(Knit, Woven Wool, and
Raw Stock only)
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1977 1983
34,045. 52.O93.
1976-1985 = 7.37%
1977 1983
220.52
186.96
,OO4.23
52.06
.22
127.8O
75.01
52O.O4
6.36
311.94
263.OS
1,416.62
7O.36
.22
60.06
46.97
286.17
.31
1985
55,788.
1985
330.54
278.39
1,499.62
73.97
.20
29.54
43.22
195.75
. 17
.06
.01 .01
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
82.28 (8PT) 85.22 (BAT) 148.81
40.37 O.OO O.OO
17.O7 198.74 229,37
19.86 169.24 248.68
159.57 453.21 626.86
-------
Table 4-1O-1. (Continued)
Textiles
Industry Data Summary
u>
I-'
u>
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
AnnualIzed Costs 1977
Annualized Capital1 17.49
O&M3
On-s1te Treatment 2.13
Pretreatment 16.66
Totals 18.79
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery 8.81
User Charges' 15,09
Totals 23.90
Grand Totals SO. 18
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
54.82 57.49 391.11'
3.47 5.16 32.17
25.36 26.61 218.33
28.83 31.77 250.50
31.85
32.83
64.68
32.55
34. 4O
66.95
248.68
373.02
621 .7O
148.33 156.22 1,263.31
1 AnnualIzed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs 1n any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
' User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Textiles industry includes wool scouring, wool finishing, woven and knit fabric finishing,
carpet mills, and stock yarn processes.
-------
BUILDERS PAPER AND ROOFING
FELT INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There were 81
mills in this industry group in 1972. Although there is
some overlapping, they are generally divided based upon
their announced production as follows:
Dry roofing felt 17 mills
Saturated/coated roofing felt 58 mills
Combination of the above 6 mills
Since mills frequently discontinue old products and
introduce new ones, this distribution can only be considered
as illustrative.
Builders paper and roofing felt mills are geographically
distributed over most of the United States; the majority are
located in or near metropolitan areas where the quantity of
waste paper required is readily available. As a result of
their locations, the majority of the mills (50 - 75 percent)
are estimated to be discharging into municipal sewage
systems.
Mills in this industry produce building papers and felts as
their primary products using wood, waste paper, and rags as
raw materials. Although the processes are similar, mills
may use different equipment depending upon the raw materials
used.
The raw materials are prepared by cooking, beating, and
pulping in a blending chest to reduce them to individual
fibers. The fibers are then formed on a paper machine and
dried by a steam-heated multidrum dryer. Finishing coats
are then applied to protect the fibers; the coatings
generally consist of mineral fragments in a bitumen or
asphalt medium, depending upon each client's specifications.
Building paper products are usually a heavy paper used in
construction for support or backing. Roofing felts are
usually in shingle or roll form, although sometimes the
paper fibers' are woven with asbestos to make a roll roofing
product of exceptional strength that needs no protective
coating.
3-133
-------
It is important to note that the percentage of waste paper
as a constituent in builders paper and roofing felts is
expected to rise from 27.1 percent in 1969 to 40 percent in
1985.
In 1971, a total of 1,469,000 metric tons were produced.
Less than 5 percent of total industry output went to foreign
markets and imports were also fairly insignificant; this
condition is due to the tight supply and demand balance at
home. American producers have enjoyed a cost advantage
because of cheaper raw material sources. However, this
advantage may be eliminated by 1980 because of the European
economic community tariffs.
Waste sources and Pollutants. The sources contributing to
the total waste load come from the following:
• The main water use is for cleanup of fiber buildup,
fiberizing, and the design function of seal and cooling
waters, agitators, and pumps.
• The next largest usage is for emergency make-up water
and cooling water for the power boiler, heat exchange
condensate, and the asphalt saturation process.
in order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
BPT, BAT, and NSPS: BOD5, TSS, pH and settleable solids.
Control Technology and Costs. Waste treatment practices in
the industry vary according to whether the control is
internal or external. Internal waste treatment practices
include:
• Reuse of Whitewater
• Save all system
• Shower water reduction/reuse
• Gland water reduction/reuse
• internal spill collection
• Segregation of non-contact process water
• LOW volume cooling spray shower nozzles.
External waste treatment practices currently employed in the
industry include:
3-134
-------
Basic Function Alternative Technologies
Screening Traveling, self-cleaning bar
screen.
Suspended solids Mechanical clarifier, earthen
removal basin, mixed (multU-media
filtration, coagulation.
BOD5 removal Aerated stabilization basin,
activated sludge storage
oxidation ponds.
Temperature control Cooling tower.
Source: EPA Development Document
BPT guidelines for plants discharging to waterways call for
a limitation of BOD5, TSS, settleable solids, and pH by
installation of the following treatment technologies:
Internal
* Water showers-self cleaning, low volume, high pressure.
• Segregation of white water systems- maximum reuse
within stock preparation machine systems.
• Press water filtering, using vibrating or centrifugal
screen.
• Collection systems for vacuum pump/water reduction.
• Control of asphalt spills.
External
• TSS reduction by earthen stilling basin, mechanical
clarification, and sludge removal.
• BOD5. reduction using biological oxidation with nutrient
addition by activated sludge aerated basins or storage
oxidation ponds.
• Secondary solids removal by mechanical clarifiers,
stilling ponds, or aquiescent zone in an aerated basin
which is beyond the influence of the aeration
equipment.
• Sludge disposal by land disposal or incineration.
3-135
-------
In addition to the above, BAT guidelines call for the
following:
Internal
• Control of spills with a bypass to the retention basin
for reuse, discharge into the treatment system or
separate treatment.
• Intensive internal reuse of process waters.
• Separation of cooling waters from other wastewater
streams with subsequent heat removal and reuse.
• Intensive reduction of gland water spillage.
External
• BOD5_ reduction by biological oxidation with nutrient
addition.
• Suspended solids reduction by mixed media filtration
with, if necessary, chemical addition and coagulation.
New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) are the same as
BAT for existing plants.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesKin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The builders paper and roofing
felt industry G&P estimates are as follows (in million 1975
dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment 10.9
Incremental BPT O&M 1.3
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Of the 81 plants covered in both studies, G&P
assumes that 75 percent are dumping wastes to municipal
treatment systems, and seven percent have no treatment.
SEAS assumes that fifty percent dump to municipal systems,
with all of the remainder incurring associated BPT costs.
* Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
3-136
-------
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-137
-------
Table 4-11-1.
Builders Paper & Roofing Felt
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (kkg/Day) 8,987. 11,690.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 4.O3/4
12,266.
I
>-•
00
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BODS
1977
64.41
88.32
1983
83.94
115. 10
1985
89. 12
122.21
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BODS
39.17
41. 75
15.20
15.28
8.71
11 .04
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s!te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
19.82 (6PT) 93.83 (BAT) 1O3.46
O.OO 0.00 O.OO
3.23 16.21 19.93
2.37 18.72 27.54
25.43 128.76 ISO.93
-------
Table 4-11-1. (Continued)
Builders Paper & Roofing Felt
Industry Data Summary
u>
U>
vo
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annual1zed Capital1
O&M1
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
COST IN YEAR
1977
3.03
5.8O
O..O
5.8O
1983
17. 5O
8. 19
O.O
8. 19
1985
17.84
15.77
O.O
15.77
1976-85
97.91'
86.06
O.O
86. 06
1 .06
1.77
2.83
11 .66
3.48
2.98
6.46
32. 15
3.54
3.O3
6.57
40. 18
27.54
37. 15
64.70
248.67
1 Annual 1 zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annualIzed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
' O&M costs 1n any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
4 User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Builders Paper industry includes heavy construction paper and roofing felts.
-------
PULP, PAPER AND PAPERBOARD INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The pulp, paper
and paperboard industry can be divided into five major
subcategories based on the processes involved. The
subcategories are:
• Unbleached kraft
• Neutral sulfite semichemical (NSSC) sodium base
• Unbleached kraft and NSSC cross recovery
• Paperboard from waste paper.
The majority of industry production is from unbleached Kraft
and cross recovery processes. A description of process and
product use by subcategories follows:
Unbleached Kraft. Pulp is produced without bleaching
using a "full cook" process with a high alkaline-sodium
hydroxide and sodium sulfide cooking liquor, unbleached
kraft products are used for linerboard, the smooth facing in
corrugated boxes, and grocery sacks.
Sodium Base-Neutral Sulfite Semichemical (NSSC). Pulp
production occurs without bleaching, using a neutral sulfite
cooking liquor with a sodium base; mechanical fiberizing
follows the cooking stage. The main product is the
corrugating medium or inner layer in the corrugated box
"sandwich."
Ammonia Base-Neutral Sulfite Semichemical (NSSC). Pulp is
produced without bleaching, using a neutral sulfite cooking
liquor with an ammonia base. Products are similar to sodium
base NSSC.
Unbleached Kraft-Neutral Sulfite Semichemical (cross
recovery). Unbleached kraft and sodium base NSSC processes
are in the same mill. NSSC liquor is recovered within the
unbleached kraft recovery process. The products are the
same as for the unbleached kraft and NSSC subcategories.
Paperboard from Waste Paper. Paperboard products are
produced from a variety of waste papers such as corrugated
boxes, box board or newspapers without doing the bleaching,
de-inking, or wood pulping operations. Plants classified in
this subcategory must obatin at least 80 percent of their
fibrous materials from waste paper.
All of the processes are similar in their digestion of wood
chips with a chemical cooking liquor and the subsequent
removal of the spent liquor. Process differences relate
primarily to the preparation, use, and recovery of the
3-140
-------
cooking liquor. in the case of paperboard, no pulping is
involved.
Exports are primarily woodpulp and liner board. American
producers have a cost advantage because of cheap raw
material sources; however, this advantage may be eliminated
by the European Economic Community tariff increases
scheduled for 1980. (Europe comprises 43 percent of the
export market.) Imports of pulp, paper, and paperboard
products are not significant,
Waste sources and Pollutants. The main sources contributing
to the total waste load come from the following processes:
wood preparation, pulping processes and the paper machine.
In order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were selected as guidelines for meeting BPT
and BAT: BOD^, TSS, pH, and color.
Control Technology and Costs. Waste treatment practices in
the pulp, paper and paperboard industry include the
following methods.
• Reuse of gland, vacuum pump seal, knot removal shower,
wash and condensate waters
• Internal spill collection: hot stock screening and
chemical and dregs recovery
• Land disposal: save all systems
• Screening and neutralization
• Suspended solids removal by mechanical clarifier, earth
basin, filtration and dissolved air flotation
• BOD!> removal by aerated stabilization basin, activated
sludge and storage control
• Form control by chemical and mechnical means
• Color removal by lime treatment, activated carbon,
coagulation-alum, and reverse osmosis
* Resin adsorption, ultra-filtration, amino treatment and
ion flotation.
The technology called for in BPT, BAT and SSPS guidelines
are summarized as follows:
3-141
-------
Guideline
and Area
Subcategories
BPT internal Unbleached Kraft
Technology Called For
Hot stock screening, spill and
evaporator boil-out storage,
multi-stage counter current
washers
Sodium base-
NSSC
Ammonia base-
NSSC
Unbleached
Kraft-NSSC
Paperboard
Non-polluting spent liquor dis-
posal by (a) partial evaporation/
incineration (b) fluidized bed
reactor
Non-polluting spent liquor dis-
posal by partial evaporation/
incineration
Hot stock screening, spin and
evaporator boil-out storage,
efficient pulp washing
TSS reduction by earthen basin,
mechanical clarification and
sludge removal, and dissolved
air flotation
BPT External All Subcategories
TSS reduction by: earthen basin
mechanical clarification and
sludge removal, and dissolved
air flotation
BOD!> reduction by: activiated
sludge, aerated stabiliza-
tion basins, storage oxidation
ponds
Biological solids removal by:
mechanical clarifiers, stilling
ponds, stilling pond with an
aerated stabilization basin, or
quiescent zone in an aerated
stabilization basin beyond the
influence of aeration equipment
Sludge disposal by landfilling
or incineration
3-142
-------
Guideline
and Area Subcategories Technology Called For
BPT Paper All Subcategories
Machines
Water Showers
Segregation of white water
Press water filtering by
vibrating or centrifugal screen
Collection system for vacuum
pump seal water
Gland water reduction
BAT Internal All Subcategories
Reuse of fresh water filter
backwash
Control of spills-retention,
reuse or separate treatment
Reduction of pulp wash and
extraction water
internal reuse of process
waters
Separate cooling, waters from
the other wastewater streams-
treat, removal, and reuse
Reduction of gland water
spillage
3-143
-------
BAT External All Subcategories
BOD5_ reduction by: biological
oxidation with nutrient
addition. TSS reduction by:
mixed media filtration and
chemical addition and coagulation
color reduction-minimum lime
treatment for cross recovery
mills and reverse osmosis for
NSSC both sodium and ammonia
base
Guideline
and Area Subcategories Technology Called For
NSPS All Subcategories
Coagulation and filtration not
included for any Subcategories,
color reduction for both NSSC
bases are not included. Same
as BAT, no real process changes
but changes to increase
efficiency.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesXin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
{in million 1975 dollars):
Total Phase I Phase II
Incremental BPT Investment $2,045.1 369.2 1,675.9
Incremental BPT O&M $ 189.8 49.3 140.5
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
thses costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are estimates of the
distribution of costs between model plant sizes, as well as
basic costs associated with a particular model plant.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
3-144
-------
of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-145
-------
Table 4-12-1.
Pulp, Paper, and Paper-board
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
I
»-•
o\
Capacity:
Phase I (MT/Day)
Phase II (MT/Day)
64,114.
128,020.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985:
Phase I = 4.22%
Phase II = 6.13%
EFFLUENTS (1,000 MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BODS
1977
901.44
88O.17
83,675.
186,760.
1983
1,276.82
1,234.30
88,032.
202,140.
1985
1,378.35
1,329.73
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
571.34
399.98
282.10
179.66
173.70
138.13
CONTROL COSTS (Million 197B $)
Phase I
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New P1 ants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
182.72
O.OO
16.55
1.32
2OO.59
1978-83
1976-85
(BPT) 666.22 (BAT) 751.61
O.OO O.OO
189.32 220.11
10.02 14.76
865.56 986.48
-------
Table 4-12-1. (Continued)
Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard
Industry Data Summary
w
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Phase I (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs
Annaulized Capital1
0»M>
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
26.2O
47.8S
0.0
47.85
0.58
0.94
1 .51
75.56
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
138.68 142.54 824,O3'
88.73 156.44 783.71
O.O O.O O.O
88.73 156.44 783.71
1 .86
1 .62
3.48
1 .90
1.66
3.56
14.76
19.91
34.67
23O.89 3O2.54 1,642.42
1 Annual 1zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of•annual1zed cost may not be reTatable to-the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs in any year are relative to Investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Pulp and Paper (Phase I) industry includes unbleached kraft, NSSC, and paperboard from waste
products.
-------
Table 4-12-1. (Continued)
Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard
Industry Data Summary
CO
I
00
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase II
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AnnualIzed Costs
Annual1zed Capital'
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
847.12 (BPT)
O.OO
1978-83
197S-85
2,473.44 (BAT) 2,846.42
O.OO O.OO
126.61
99.27
1.O73.OO
1977
128
1O9
0
1O9
44
74.
118
.02
.46
.0
.46
.07
.47
.54
993.
8OO,
4,267
COST
IN
1983
583,
208.
0.
208
149
143.
293
.77
.86
.0
.86
.75
.82
.57
03 1
81 1
.28 5
YEAR
,204,
,178.
,229
7O
,53
.64
1985
6O8.
453.
0.
483.
152.
151.
304.
26
43
0
43
S3
80
63
3
2
2
1
1
2
1976-85
,527.
,142
0.0
,142
,178
,685
.864
,68'
.67
.67
.53
.63
. 15
Grand Totals
356.02
1,086.2O 1.366.33 8.534.5O
-------
Table 4-12-1. (Continued)
Pulp. Paper, and Paperboard
Industry Data Summary
Phase II (Continued)
1 Annual1zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment"-made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Pulp and Paper (Phase II) Industry Includes bleached kraft, sulfite processes, soda and groundwood
processes, deInked processes, and non-Integrated processes.
-------
PLYWOOD, HARDBOARD, AND WOOD
PRESERVING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The plywood,
hardboardy and wood preserving segment of the timber
products processing industry is a large and complex
conglomerate. For purposes of establishing effluent
limitations guidelines, and standards of performance, it has
been divided into eight subcategories as follows: (1)
barking, (2) veneer, (3} plywood, (4) hardboard - dry
process, (5) hardboard - wet process, (6) wood preserving,
(7) wood preserving - steam, and (8) wood preserving -
boultonizing.
There were 916 operating plants in 1973 comprising the
plywood, hardboard, and wood preserving segments of the
timber industry.
Barking includes the operations that remove the bark from
logs, either through mechanical abrasion or by hydraulic
force. Veneer includes converting barked logs or heavy
timber into thinner sections of wood, which may be later cut
and conditioned to improve its quality. Plywood includes
operations of laminating layers of veneer to form finished
plywood, either softwood from veneers of coniferous or
needle bearing trees or hardwood from deciduous or broad-
leaf trees. Hardboard includes the operations leading to
the production of panels from chips, sawdust, logs, or other
raw materials, using either the dry (air) or wet (water)
matting processes for forming the board mat. wood
processing includes all pressure or non-pressure processes
employing water-borne salts (copper, chromium, or arsenic),
in which steaming or vapor drying is not the predominant
method of conditioning. Wood preserving-steam includes
steam impingement on the wood being conditioned. Wood
preserving-boultonizing uses a vacuum extraction of water as
the conditioning method. Timber products are used primarily
for the building and construction industry, commercial uses,
and home and decorative purposes.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Wastewater sources are given
for the following segments:
• Barking. Hydraulic barking contributes high suspended
solids and BOD, as does drum barking.
» Plywood and veneer. Log conditioning, cleaning of
veneer dryers, washing of the glue lines and glue
tanks, and cooling water.
3-150
-------
• Hardboard. Wastewater discharge is low for dry
processing but can occur due to washing. Sources from
wet processing include: raw materials handling, fiber
and mat formation, and processing.
• Wood preserving. Oils, simple sugars, cooling water,
steam condensate, boiler blowdown.
The major pollutant parameters common to all subcategories
but not necessarily present in process water from all the
categories for which effluent guidelines and standards are
presented, include the following: BOD5, COD, phenols, oil
and grease, pH, high temperature, dissolved solids, total
suspended solids, phosphorus, and ammonia,
wood preserving subcategories may also include the following
pollution contributors: copper, chromium, arsenic, zinc, and
flourides. The above pollutants or pollutant parameters are
not always present in process water from all the
subcategories, and their presence depends on the processing
methods,
Presently, 20 to 30 percent of the veneer and plywood plants
are achieving the no discharge limitations. About 25
percent of the hardboard manufacturers and from 5 to 10
percent of the wood preserving plants are also achieving the
no discharge limitations.
Control Technology and Costs. Current technology includes
the following:
* Barking. Clarifiers.
• veneer. Reduce amount of wastewater by reuse and
conservation.
« Plywood. Minimal wastewater reduction in water use.
• Hardboard-Dry. Oil and water separation, waste
retention ponds or spray irrigation.
* Hardboard-wet. Water recycle, filtration,
sedimentation, coagulation, evaporation, and biological
oxidation such as lagoons, aerated lagoons, and
activated sludge systems.
« wood Preserving. Storage or discharge to sewers,
evaporation and incineration, flocculation and
sedimentation.
BPT includes the following:
3-151
-------
• Wood Preserving, implementation of good housekeeping
practices, and minimizing water use.
NSPS is the same as BPT for barking, and the same as BAT for
the remaining processes in the industry.
Annualized control costs are detailed in Table 4-13-1.
3-153
-------
Table 4-13-1-
Plywood. Hardboard, and Wood Preserving
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL 1977 1983 1985
Capac1ty:
Plywood & Veneer
(Million Sq. M/Day) 2.121. 2,595. 2,534.
Wood Preserving (Liter/Day) 3,811,109. 4,662.812. 4.552.324.
Hardwood (kkg/Day) 5.125. 7.494. 7,316.
ui
>*>
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.22%
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr) 1977 1983
Note: Residual data not available at time of Report Issue.
1971 Controls:
Legislated Controls:
1985
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
66.24 (BPT)
O.OO
5. 12
0.0
71.36
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83 1976-85
16.43 (BAT) 44.26
0.00 0.00
26.46 26.63
O.O O.O
42.89 70.89
-------
Table 4-13-1. (Continued)
Plywood, Hardboard, and Wood Preserving
Industry Data Summary
U>
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
AnnualIzed Costs 1977
Annuallzed Capital1 9.38
O&M3
On-s1te" Treatment 22.93
Pretreatment 0.0
Totals 22.93
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery O.O
User Charges' O.O
Totals O.O
Grand Totals 32.31
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985
15.O2 15.O4
O.O
0.0
O.O
47.36
O.O
O.O
O.O
1976-85
122.81'
32.34 38.76 302.33
O.O O.O O.O
32.34 38.76 302.33
O.O
O.O
O.O
53.80 425.14
1 Annuallzed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
5 O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made In the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing In 1973.. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made 1n that year,
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Plywood, Hardboard and Wood Preserving Industry Includes softwood and hardwood plywood and veneer
processing, wet and dry hardboard, and preserving processes.
-------
INORGANIC CHEMICALS INDUSTRY
Production characteristics and Capacities. The complex and
heterogeneous inorganic chemicals industry produces
thousands of chemicals. Each of the chemicals covered by
the effluent guidelines is manufactured by one or more
processes, most of which are covered by the current
guidelines. Because the various products and processes
differ considerably from one another, it is not possible to
describe them in detail. Generally, they can be said to
involve the chemical reaction of raw materials, followed by
the separation, collection, and purification of the product.
Table 4-14-1 identifies each of the processes covered and
summarizes briefly the raw materials used and the nature of
each process.
3-156
-------
I
H*
Ol
Product (Use)
Aluminum chloride (catalyst In
petrochemical and plaatlci
industry)
Aluminum sttUate
(water purificatioa)
Calcium carbide (manufacture
of acetylene)
Calcium chloride (delclng and dust
control on roads, stabilizer In
pavement and cement)
Calcium oxide and calcium
hydroxide (lime) (many chemical
and Industrial uses)
Chlorine and sodium or potassium
hydroxide (chlor-aikall) (many
Industrial uses)
Hydrochloric add (many Industrial
and chemical uses, particularly
pickling of steel)
Processes Covered
by Phase t Effluent
Limitation* Guidelines
All
All
Uncovered furnaces only
Brine extraction
All
Mercury cell diaphragm
cell
Direct chlorine-
hydrogen reaction
Daw Materials
Gaseous chloride, molten
aluminum
Bauxite, coke, chlorine
Hydrated aluminum or bauxite
ore; hydrochloric aold
Bauxite ore or other aluminum
compound, concentrated aulfurie
acid
Limestone; coke, petroleum
coke or anthraclde
Salt brines or solvay process
waste liquor
Limestone
Sodium chloride or potassium
chloride brines
Chlorine, hydrogen
Description
Chloride Introduced below surface of
aluminum, product sublimes and is selected
by condensation. -Produces anhydrous
aluminum chloride.
Qround ore and «cld reacted In a digester.
Muds sod Insoluble* settled sad filtered oat.
Limestone and carbon reacted In a furnace. '
Brines oocentrated and purified! then <
evaporated to yield product which Is flaked '.
and calcined to yield a dry acid. '
Limestone nested in a kiln.
Brines purified, then electrolysed. Products
- collected at electrodes and purified.
Hydrogen and chlorine gases reacted la «
vertical burner. Acid Is cooled and absorbed
la water.
0
rf
3
0)
cr
c H-
n n
w o
ft) ft)
3 s
Oi H-
o
hfl {u
m
-01
m
Souroei SPA Development Document.
-------
00
I
Cn
00
Product (Una)
Sodium oarboaate (sod* ash) (glass
ami Bon-ferrous metal*, otter
products)
Sodium chloride (table ult)
Sodium dtcbromate (manufacturing of
pigments, otbar industrial uses,
corrosion Inhibition)
Sodium metal (manufacture of
tetraethyl toad and other productai
nuclear coolant)
ffrufhnu silicate (manufacture of
olllcatel)
jtorffrqr* Sttifite (Mfta<*hlftgi food
preservative; boiler feed water
additive)
Processes Covered
by Phase I Effluent
Limitations Guidelines
Sotvay process
Solar evaporation
Solution brlnemlalng
AU
Downs cell prooeaa
AU
and soda ash
Raw Materials
Ammonia} salt brine; carboQ
dioxide
Salt water
Water; salt deposits
Chrome ore: sodium carbonate;
lime; sulfurta acid
Sodium chloride; alkali fluorides)
calcium chloride
Caustic soda; silica
Sulfur dioxide gas; sodium
carbonate (soda ash)
Description
Sodium bicarbonate produced from reacting
the raw materials In an aqueous solution.
This la then converted to soda ash by heating.
Salt water concentrated by evaporation to open
ponds. The brine Is then crystallized wherein
sodium chlorine precipitates.
Water pumped Into an underground salt deposit.
Brine pumped out and purified. Product
crystallized out.
Raw materials calcinated, then leached.
Soluble chromates converted to dlchromatea
with sulfurio sold. Dlchromatea crystallised
out.
Mixture melted and electrolysed. Sodium
collected at cathode.
Caustic soda and silica sand mixed, Uten
charged In a furnace. Water and steam added
to dissolve the silicate. Silicate evaporated.
Oas passed into a soda ash solution. Solution
heated. Sulfate Is purified, filtered.
crystallized.
3
o»
e H
n- cr
n M M
^g «
g 9> i—'
C H- I
n n t-
a> o
3- ^.
jy <^ O
3 a o
ft H- 3
o n-
^ & H*1
3
O
o
0
(0
0)
(D
o.
Souroei EPA Davelopmeat Docmnent.
-------
I
M
VO
Product (Use)
Hydrofluoric add (production at
floorlnated organics end
p!ttsUes>«to.)
Hydrogen peroxide (btephlng tgant)
HUrto add flortilitctu, explosives)
Potassium matml (used io organo-
potassium compounda and in
sodiui&->pot&a8Uun BUuxufacbirB)
Potassium dtchromttte ({dags
pigment and photographic
development)
Potassium outfate (agriculture)
;w!da rartety a! uses «m»ini
-------
U>
I
Product (Use)
Sulfurlo acid (fertilizer, petroleum
refining, explosive*, other*)
Titanium dioxide (white pigment to
paint, ink, aod1 other produ.-t»)
Proceeaea Covered
by Phase I Effluent
Limitation. Guidelines
Contact proceaa {single
and double absorption)
Chloride prooes*
Bulfate proceaj
Raw Material*
Sulfur
Titanium dioxide oreaj
ohlorloo; ooka
Titanium dioxide oreaj
aulfurio aold
De»oriptlOd
Sulfur burned to yield lulfur dioxide, mixed
with air, hatted, and then Introduced Into «
catalytic converter to produce luUur trlodde.
This gas to then cooled «nd absorbed la «
•utfurlc acid loiutloa.
ChlortiuUon of ore« produces tltoalum
tetraohlorlde, which la then oxidlcad to form
tho product^
Ores dissolved In aulfurlo told «t Ugh
temperatures to produce titanium aulfate
which it hydrolyxed to form a hydrate. TU«
U then oalolned to form the product.
o.
C t-3
m o
rr CT
1 H M
K: 3 ID
o
a SO M
3 rf*
c H- i
n n (-•
rr .
» o
&* fD O
3 3 O
a H- 3
O
O
a
CD
n
3
c
Sourcei EPA Development Document.
-------
Production capacity of some of the chemicals is concentrated
in the hands of a few producers,- in the case of potassium
dichromate, there is only one. The market for other
products is much more competitive; for example, there are
over 100 producers of lime. The total production of the
inorganic chemicals covered by the Phase I effluent
limitations guidelines was about 139 million tons in 1971.
Of this total production, about 48 million tons or 34
percent actually come within the control of the guidelines.
The remaining 66 percent is comprised of chemicals which are
either produced by processes not covered by the guidelines
or are produced in plants that are classified as other
industries, such as pulp mills and steel mills.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Water is used in inorganic
chemical manufacturing plants for three principal purposes:
• Cooling. Non-contact cooling water.
• Process. Cdntact cooling or heating water, contact
wash water, transport water, product and dilution
water.
• Auxiliary water.
The effluent limitations guidelines apply to process
wastewater pollutants only. This includes those wastewater
constituents in water which directly contact the product,
byproduct, intermediate, raw material, or waste product.
Examples are waters used for barometric condensers, contact
steam drying, steam distillation, washing of products,
intermediates or raw materials; transporting reactants or
products in solution, suspension or slurry form; and water
which becomes an integral part of the product or is used to
form a more dilute product.
The following basic pollutant parameters are covered in the
effluent limitations guidelines for the inorganic chemicals
industry: total suspended solids (TSS), cyanide, chromium,
chemical oxygen demand (COD), iron, lead, mercury, total
organic carbon (TOO, and pH.
Control Technology and Costs. The manufacture of some of
the inorganic chemicals covered by the effluent limitations
guidelines produces no waterborne wastes. In these cases,
the only control technology required is the isolation,
handling, and often reuse of water from leaks, spills, and
washdowns. The most common wastewater treatment practices
in the remainder of the industry are neutralization, the
settling of suspended solids in ponds, storage, and
discharge of the neutralized and clarified effluent to
3-161
-------
surface waters. Deep-well disposal is also used,
particularly for sodium chloride brine-mining waters. When
more control is necessary because of the presence of harmful
wastes, more advanced technology, such as ion exchange and
chemical reduction and precipitation, is employed. In-
process control measures commonly employed include
monitoring techniques, safety practices, good housekeeping,
containment provisions, and segregation practices.
Table 4-14-2 summarizes the control techniques associated
with BAT and BPT guidelines. BPT assumes the normal use of
practiced in-process controls, such as recycling and
alternative use of water, and recovery and/or reuse of
wastewater constituents. BAT assumes the highest degree of
in-process controls that are available and are economically
achieveable.
New source performance standards (NSPS) are the same as BPT
for all chemicals except chlorine (chlor-alkalis), sodium
dichromate, and titanium dioxide. For chlorine, metal
anodes may be used to eliminate lead discharges. For both
chlorine and sodium dichromate, NSPS guidelines assume
decreased water discharges based upon improved water
processing designs in new plants. NSPS for titanium dioxide
are the same as BAT.
3-162
-------
Table 4-14-2.
Inorganic Chemicals
Industry Summary of Control Technologies
Chemical
Aluminum chloride
(anhydrous)
Aluminum sulfate
Calcium carbide
Hydrochloric acid
chlorine burning
Hydrofluoric acid
Sodium bicarbonate
Sodium chloride
(solar process)
Sodium si 1icate
Best Practicable Technology (BPT)
No water scrubbers for white or
grey aluminum chloride production.
For yellow aluminum chloride
production, gas scrubbing and sale
of scrubber wastes as aluminum
chloride solution, or
Gas scrubbing followed by chemical
treatment to precipitate aluminum
hydroxide and recycle
Settling pond and reuse
Dry dust collection system
Acid containment and isolation with
centralized collection acid
wastes and reuse
Acid containment and isolation,
and reuse
Evaporation and product recovery,
or
Recycle to process
Good housekeeping to prevent
contamination of waste salts
Storage of wastes in an evaporation
pond, or
Ponding and clarification
Best Available Technology (BAT)
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Ponding or clarification and
recycle of treated wastewater
-------
Table 4-14-2. (Continued)
Inorganic Chemicals
Industry Summary of Control Technologies
Chemical
Sulfuric acid
(sulfur burning
contact process)
Lime
Nitric acid
Potassium (metal)
Potassium dichromate
Potassium sulfate
Calcium chloride
(brine extraction)
Hydrogen peroxide
(organic)
Sodium (metal)
Best Practicable Technology (BPT)
Acid containment and isolation with
recycle to process or sell as
weak acid
Dry Bag Collection Systems,
or
Treatment of scrubber water by
ponding and clarification and
recycle
Acid containment and isolation
and reuse
No process water used in manufacture
Replacement of barometric condensers
with non-contact heat exchangers:
recycle of process liquor
Evaporation of brine waters with
recovery of magnesium chlorine,
or
Reuse of brine solution in process
in place of process water
Settling pond or clarification
Isolation and containment of
process wastes; oil separation
and clarification
Salting pond,
and
Partial recycle of brine waste
solution after treatment
Best Available Technology (BAT)
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT
Same as BPT plus replacement of
barometric condensers with
non-contact heat exchangers
and additional recycle
Chemical decomposition for
peroxide removal and carbon
adsorption for organic removal
10O% brine recycle and reuse or
sale of spent sulfuric acid
-------
u>
I
01
Table 4-14-2. (Continued)
Inorganic Chemicals
Industry Summary of Control Technologies
Chemical
Sodium chloride
(solution mining)
Sodium sulfite
Soda ash
(sodium carbonate)
So Way Process
Hydrogen peroxide
(electrolytic)
Sodium dlchromate and
sodium sulfate
Chlor-alkal1
(diaphragm eel 1)
Best Practicable Technology (BPT)
Containment and isolation of spills,
packaging wastes, scrubbers, etc;
partial recycle to brine cavity
A1r oxidation of sodium sulfite
wastes to sodium sulfate—94%
effective, and final filtration to
remove suspended solids
Settling ponds
Best Available Technology (BAT)
Same as BPT plus replacement of
barometric condensers with
non-contact heat exchangers
Same as BPT plus recovery of
waste sodium sulfate
Settling ponds and clarification
Same as BPT plus segregation of
wastewater from cool ing water
and evaporation of the waste
stream and recycle of the
distil late
Ion exchange to convert sodium
ferrocyanide to ammonium
ferrocyanide which 1s then reacted
with hypochlorlte solution to
oxidize It to cyanate solutions,
and
Settling pond or filtration to remove
catalyst and suspended solids
Isolation and containment of spills. Same as BPT plus evaporation of
leaks, and runoff, and
Batchwise treatment to reduce
hexavalent chromium to trivalent
chromium with NaHS, plus precipi-
tation with lime or caustic; and
Settling pond with controlled discharge
Asbestos and cell rebuild wastes are .Same as BPT plus:
filtered or settled in ponds then
land dumped, and
Chlorinated organic wastes are Incin-
erated or land dumped, and
Purification muds from brine purifi-
cation are turned to salt cavity or
sent to evaporation pond/sett11ng
ponds, and
Weak caustic-brine solution from the
caustic filters Is partially recycled
the settling pond effluent with
recycling of water and land
disposal or recovery of solid
waste
Reuse or sell waste sulfurlc add
Catalytic treatment of the
hypochlorite waste and reuse
or recovery
Recyc1e of all weak br1ne
solutions
Conversion to stable anodes
-------
Table 4-14-2. (Continued)
Inorganic Chemicals
Industry Summary of Control Technologies
Chemical
Chlor-alkal1
(mercury eel 1)
u>
I
Chlor-alkal1
(mercury eel 1)
(continued)
Titanium dioxide
(chloride process)
Titanium dioxide
(sulfate process)
Best Practicable Technology (BPT)
Cell rebuilding wastes are filtered
or placed in settling pond, then
used for landfill, and
Chlorindated organic wastes are
incinerated or placed in containers
and land dumped, and
Purification muds from brine purifi-
cation are returned to brine cavity
or sent to evaporation/settling
ponds, and
Partial recycle of brine waste streams,
and
Recovery and reuse of mercury effluent
by curbing, insulation and
collection of mercury containing
streams, then treatment with sodium
sulf1de
Neutralization with lime of caustic,
and
Removal of suspended solids with
settling ponds or clarifier-
thickener, and
Recovery of byproducts
Neutralization with lime or caustic,
and
Removal of suspended solids with
settling ponds or clarlfiei—
th1ckener, and
Recovery of byproducts
Best Available Technology (BAT)
Same as BPT plus:
Reuse or recovery of waste
suifuric acid
Catalytic treatment of the
hypochlorite waste and
reuse or recovery
Recycle of all weak brine
solutions
Same as BPT plus additional
clarification and polishing
Same as BPT plus additional
clarification and polishing
Source: EPA Development Document
-------
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Agency by Arthur E>. Little, Inc. (ADD*.
This analysis was conducted in somewhat greater depth than,
and subsequent to the general data gathering efforts
associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation procedure,
and is considered to be more precise. However, time and
resource constraints prevented incorporating these costs
into the scenario analyses using the SEAS model procedure.
The estimates are as follows, for comparable portions of
industry (in million 1975 dollars):
ADL SEAS
Incremental BPT Investment $210.6 180.3
SEAS and ADL give investment figures for only 11 chemicals
in common. There is a substantial difference in segments of
the industry covered by the two studies. The split between
BPT and BAT costs for treatment of chemical production
varies considerably for these chemicals associated with
these costs is extremely close in most instances. As an
example, titanium dioxide (sulfate process) was investigated
by both studies with associated investment costs forecast as
follows (in millions 1975 dollars):
BPT BAT
ADL 14.0 2.1
SEAS 15.6 0.4
For Phase II chemicals, there is not any consistency for
model plant costs of the two studies.
» ."Economic Analysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines -
Inorganic Chemicals, Alkaline and Chlorine Industries
(Major Products)", Arthur D. Little, Inc., August, 1973.
"Economic Analysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines
for the Inorganic Chemicals industries, Phase II",
Arthur D. Little, inc., Sept., 1974.
3-167
-------
Table 4-14-3.
Inorganic Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
w
00
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capac 1 ty:
Phase I (kkg/Day)
Phase II (kkg/Day)
1977
235.O1O.
623,
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985:
Phase I = 5.26%
Phase II » 6.65%
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOOS
COD
Dissolved Sol Ids
Adds
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Dissolved Sol Ids
Acids
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase I
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1977
1983
325.950.
93O.
1983
1985
35O.2OO
1,013
1985
1O6
43
165
5, 1O3
293
32
15
91
4,419
75
.81
.01
.07
. 18
.06
.74
.48
.76
.02
.57
110
60
230
5,232
325
4
5
53
1,292
.36
.67
.43
.25
.76
.78
.39
.86
.80
.01
1O5.O4
65.49
248. 16
4,965.65
324.07
3.O3
4.44
4O.32
383. O7
0
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
1978-83
1976-85
201
O.
21
O
223
64 (BPT)
00
98
O
62
198.O9 (BAT) 282.88
O.OO O.OO
115.48 143.25
O.O O.O
313.57 426.14
-------
Table 4-14-3. (Continued)
Inorganic Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
to
I
vo
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Phase I (Continued)
Annuallzed Costs
Annualized Capital1
O&M'
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
29.4O
92.72
0.0
92.72
O.O
O.O
O.O
122.12
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
7O.63 73.27 499.86*
99.84 12O.62 1.OO8.39
O.O 0.0 O.O
99.84 12O.62 1.OO8.39
0.0
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
O.O
0.0
17O.47 193.89 1.508.25
Annuallzed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
The decade total of annual 1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made 1h the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made in that year.
User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The phase I Inorganic chemicals industry Includes aluminum sulfate, calcium chloride, mercury eel 1-
chlor alkali, mercury eel 1-diaphragm, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen peroxide, nitric add, potassium
dichromate, potassium sulfate, sodium carbonate, sodium chloride, sodium dichromate, sodium metal,
sodium silicate, sodium sulfite, sulfuric acid, titanium dioxide, and lime.
-------
Table 4-14-3. (Continued)
Inorganic Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
I
H-
O
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase II
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annual1zed Costs
Annual1zed Capital'
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
1978-83
1976-85
4.71
O.OO
1.58
0.0
6.30
1977
0.83
O.37
O.O
0.37
O.O
0.0
O.O
(BPT) 11.
O.
7.
0.
19.
COST IN
1983
3.39
0.74
O.O
0.74
O.O
0.0
0.0
58 (BAT) 13.91
00 0.00
87 10.15
0 O.O
45 24.06
YEAR
1985 1976-85
3.57 21.56'
1.58 7.37
O.O O.O
1.58 7.37
0.0 O.O
O.O 0.0
O.O 0.0
Grand Totals
1.20
4. 13
5.16
28.93
-------
Table 4-14-3. (Continued)
Inorgan1c Chera1ca1s
Industry Data Summary
Phase II (Continued)
' Annual1zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
! The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence. 08>M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
• User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Phase II Inorganic Chemicals industry includes calcium carbonate, chrome pigments and
iron blues, and potassium permanganate.
-------
FERTILIZER CHEMICALS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The fertilizer
industry can be divided into phosphate and nitrogen
fertilizer production areas, containing a total of 11
subcategoriee:
1. Phosphate Fertilizers
• Phosphate rock grinding
• Wet process phosphoric acid
• Phosphoric acid concentration
* Normal superphosphate (HSP)
• Triple superphosphate (ISP)
• Ammonium phosphates
• Sulfuric acid
2. Nitrogen Fertilizers
• Ammonia
• Urea
* Ammonium nitrate
* Nitric acid
These subcategories include both mixed and non-mixed
fertilizers.
The manufacture of these fertilizers involves a variety of
chemical processes. Three of the processes - phosphate rocX
grinding, phosphoric acid concentration, and phosphoric acid
clarification - do not require process waters. The
remaining processes are summarized in Table 4-15-1.
3-172
-------
Table 4-15-1.
Basic Fertilizer Chemicals Manufacturing Process
Product
Raw Material
Process
Wet process
Phosphoric acid
Normal super-
phosphate
Triple super-
phosphate
Phosphate rock,
sulfuric acid, water.
Sulfuric acid, ground
phosphate rock, water.
Ground phosphate rock,
phosphoric acid, water.
Mixing.
Mixing, curing
for 3-8 weeks.
Run of pile
process=mixing
curing.
Ammonium
phosphates
Sulfuric acid
Ammonia
Ammonia, wet process,
phosphoric acid.
s°2, 02, pellitized
vanadium oxide cata-
lyst, water.
Natural gas or other
hydrogen source, air,
activated carbon,
catalysts.
or
Granular triple
superphosphate
process (GTSP)=
mixing into a slurry,
drying.
Similar to GTSP
above.
Acid buring process
S02 % O2 catalyzed
to form S03, water
addled to form final
product.
Hydrogen production
followed by cataly-
sis with air to form
ammonia.
3-173
-------
Table 4-15-1. (Continued)
Basic Fertilizer chemicals Manufacturing Process
Product
Urea
Raw Material
Ammonia, sulfur
dioxide.
Process
Ammonium carbonate
formed then dehy-
drated by prilling
or crystallization
to form urea.
Ammonium nitrate Ammonia, nitric acid.
Nitric acid
Ammonia, air, water,
platinum-rhodium
gauze catalyst.
Combined in a
neutralized acid,
then prilled or
neutralized to con-
centrate the product.
Ammonia and air oxi-
dized, absorbed in
water, then cata-
lyzed.
Sulfuric acid and nitric acid are intermediate products in
the basic fertilizer chemicals industry. Approximately 25
percent of the plants produce these chemicals as part of the
production of the final products listed above; they are not
considered as separate plants for the purposes of this
report. Plants which produce sulfuric acid or nitric acid
as end products are covered under the inorganic chemicals
industry.
In terms of retail value, exports amounted to approximately
12.5 percent of domestic production, and imports 7 percent.
By weight, exports totaled a considerably higher proportion
of production, approximately 45 percent (171 million metric
tons). Of this, phosphate rock comprised the largest
portion, 13.6 million metric tons. With the exception of
ammonium nitrates, the United States is a net exporter of
all the fertilizers covered in this study.
Because fertilizers are traded in a world-wide market, and
the raw materials used are also used in a wide variety of
markets, the fertilizer market is subject to many outside
influences. These influences include world-wide
agricultural demand, the use of nitrates in explosives, and
hence pressures from the international military situation,
and the world market for synthetic fibers.
3-174
-------
In 1972, the fertilizer industry was suffering from
overcapacity with no new plants being built. However, in
1973, world demand increased so dramatically that
substantial shortages were created in the industry.
Projections published by the National Fertilizer Development
Center of the Tennessee valley Authority indicate that the
shortages in supply of phosphate materials will be
alleviated as significant surpluses develop by 1976 or 1977.
The nitrogen shortage is expected to continue longer, with a
balanced market developing in the late 1970's.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The major fertilizer waste
components include the following: pH, phosphorous,
fluorides, total suspended solids
-------
• Boiler blowdown.
« Process condensate„
« Spills and leaks that are collected in pits or
trenches.
« Nonpoint sources collected- from rain or snow.
in order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
BPT and BAT: phosphate Fertilizers: phosphorous, fluorides,
total suspended solids and pH. Hitrogen Fertilizers:
ammonia, organic nitrogen, nitrate, and pH.
Control Technology and Costs. Waste treatment practices in
the fertilizer industry include: monitoring units, retaining
areas, cutoff impoundments, reuse., recycle, atmospheric
evaporative cooling, double-lining, two-stage lime
neutralization, surrounding diKes and seepage collection
ditches, sulfuric acid, dilution with pond water,
evaporation, ammonia stripping (steam and air), high
pressure air/steam stripping, urea hydrolysis, nitrification
and denitrification, ion exchange, cation/aniou separation
unit, selective ion exchange for ammonia removal, oil
separation and ammonium nitrate condensate reuse.
BPT guidelines for the phosphate segment call for
limitations on pH, TSS, phosphates, and florides by
installing the following: double-lime treatment of gypsum
pond water, pond design to contain a 10-year storm,
monitoring system for sulfuric acid plant control, and
facilities for contaminated water isolation. BPT guidelines
for the nitrogen segment can be met by installing the
following.- ammonia steam stripping, urea hydrolysis, leak
and spill control, containment and reuse, plus oil
separation.
BAT guidelines call for increased limitations of the above
parameters by installation of pond water dilution of
sulfuric acid for the phosphate segment, and by installation
of one of the following for the nitrogen segment: ammonia
steam stripping followed by either high-flow ammonia air
stripping or biological nitrification-denitrification,
continuous ion exchange followed by denitrification, or
advanced urea hydrolysis, followed by high-flow ammonia air
stripping.
NSPS standards call for the following process improvements
for the nitrogen segment (phosphate segment is the same as
BAT):
3-176
-------
• Integration of ammonia process condensate steam
stripping column into condensate boiler feed water
systems of ammonia plant.
• Use of centrifugal rather than reciprocating
compressors.
• Segregation of contaminated water collection systems so
that common waste streams can be treated more
efficiently and cheaply.
• Locate cooling towers upwind to minimize chance of
absorbing ammonia in tower water.
• Design low velocity airflow prill tower for urea and
ammonium nitrate to minimise dust loss.
• Design lower pressure steam levels in order to make
process condensate and recovery easier and cheaper.
• Install air-cooled condensers and exchangers to
minimize cooling water circulation and blowdown.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $110.7
incremental BPT O&M $ 54.9
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. The principal reason for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are increased unit
cost estimates for BPT in ammonia and phosphate fertilizer
plants in the G&P analysis.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-177
-------
I
(-•
00
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 4-15-2.
Basic Fertilizer Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
1977
1983
Capacity (MT/Yr) 54.69O. 73,600.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 5.O4%
EFFLUENTS (1.0OO MT/Yr) 1977 1983
Note: Residual data not available at time of Report Issue,
1971 Controls:
1985
82.O6O.
1985
Legislated Controls:
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
9O.16 (BPT) 1O8.10 (BAT) 148.91
O.OO O.OO O.OO
22.28 64.93 93.89
O.O O.O O.O
112.44 173.O2 242.SO
-------
Table 4-15-2. (Continued)
Basic Fertilizer Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
W
I
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs 1977
Annual1zed Capital1 14.78
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment 3.98
Pretreatment 0.0
Totals 3.98
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery O-O
User Charges' 0.0
Totals 0.0
Grand Totals 18.77
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
37.53 39.85 257.84'
3.79 33.0O 114.O3
O.O O.O 0.0
9.79 33.OO 114.03
O.O
O.O
0.0
47.32
0.0
0.0
O.O
72.85
0.0
0.0
O.O
371.87
1 Annualized on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to Investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made in that year.
' User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note:
The Fertilizers industry Includes production of ammonia, ammonium nitrates urea, and phosphate
fert11izers.
-------
ORGANIC CHEMICALS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Approximately 450
companies operating over 650 establishments are engaged in
producing organic chemicals,- however, the four largest
producers account for a minimum of 36 percent, and the
hundred largest for more than 92 percent of the total
shipments. Much of the industry's production is accounted
for not only by the large chemical companies, but also by
the major petroleum refineries. At the other end of the
spectrum are many small companies operating small plants.
There are about 27 plants employing more than 1,000, and
about 220 plants with less than 10 employees.
The organic chemicals industry includes a vast number of
products and processes. The effluent limitations guidelines
for Phases I and II of the industry cover only part of the
organic chemicals industry. primary petrochemical
processing, (i.e., chemicals produced at petroleum
refineries}, plastics, fibers, agricultural chemicals,
pesticides, detergents, paints, and Pharmaceuticals are not
included.
Synthetic organic chemicals are derivative products of
naturally occurring raw materials (petroleum, natural gas,
and coal} which have undergone at least one chemical
conversion. The organic chemicals industry was initially
dependent upon coal as its sole source of raw materials.
However, during the last two decades it has moved so rapidly
from coal to petroleum-based feedstocks that the term
"petrochemicals" has come into common use.
The basic raw.materials are usually obtained by physical
separation processes in petroleum refineries. The raw
materials are then chemically-converted to a. primary group
of reactive precursors- these precursors are then used in a
multitude of specific chemical conversions to produce both
intermediate and final products.
Processing of organic chemicals usually involves four
stages: feed preparation - the vaporization, heating,
compressing, and chemical or physical purification of raw
materials; reaction - the reaction of the raw materials,
usually in the presence of a catalyst; product separation -
the condensation, distillation, absorption, etc., to obtain
the desired product; product purification - distillation,
extraction, crystallization, etc., to remove impurities.
Processing methods may be carried out either in continuous
3-180
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operations or in individual batches. Facilities using the
continuous processing method manufacture products at much
greater volumes and at lower unit costs than those using the
batch methods.
The effluent limitations guidelines promulgated to date by
EPA (for Phase I) apply only to those products of the
organics chemicals industry produced in continuous
processing operations. These operations have been divided
into seven subcategories, based first upon the degree of
process water used, and second upon the raw waste loads
generated; Table 4-16-1 lists the seven subcategories and
the products and processes included.
3-181
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Table 4-16-1.
organic Chemicals Manufacturing industry
Products and Related Processes
Subcategory A
Products
BTX Aromatics
BTX Aromatics
Cyclohexane
Vinyl Chloride
Subcategory B
Bl Products
Non Aqueous Processes
process Descriptions
Hydrotreatment of pyrolysis gasoline
Solvent extraction from reformate
Hydrogenation of benzene
Addition of hydrochloric acid to
acetylene
Process with Process Water Con-
tact as Steam Diluent or Absorbent
Bl Process Descriptions
Acetone
Butadiene
Ethyl benzene
Ethylene and Propylene
Ethylene dichloride
Ethylene oxide
Formaldehyde
Methanol
Methyl amines
vinyl acetate
Vinyl chlorine
B2 Products
Acetaldehyde
Acetylene
Butadiene
Butadiene
Styrene
Dehydrogenation of isopropanol
Co-product of ethylene
Alkylation of benzene with ethylene
Pyrolysis of naphtha or liquid
petroleum gas
Direct chlorination of ethylene
Catalytic oxidation of ethylene
Oxidation of methanol
Steam reforming of natural gas
Addition of ammonia to methane
Synthesis of ethylene and acetic acid
Cracking of ethylene dichloride
B2 Process Descriptions
Dehydrogenation of ethanol
Partial oxidation of methane
Dehydrogenation of n-butane
Oxidative-dehydrogenation of n-butane
Dehydrogenation of ethylbenzene
3-182
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Table 4-16-1. (Continued)
Organic Chemicals Manufacturing Industry
Products and Related Processes
Subcategory C Aqueous Liquid Phase Reaction
Systems
Cl Products Cl Process Descriptions
Acetic acid Oxidation of acetaldehyde
Acrylic acid Synthesis with carbon monoxide and
acetylene
Coal tar Distillation of coal tar
Ethylene glycol Hydrogenation of ethylene oxide
Terephthalic acid Catalytic oxidation of p-xylene
Terephtahalic acid Purification of crude terephthalic
acid
C2 Products C2 Process Descriptions
Acetaldehyde Oxidation of ethylene with oxygen
Caprolactam Oxidation of cyclohexane
Coal Tar Pitch forming
Oxo Chemicals Carbonylation and condensation
Phenol and Acetone Cumene oxidation and cleavage
C3 Products C2 Process Descriptions
Acetaldehyde oxidation of ethylene with air
Aniline Nitration and hydrogenation of benzene
Bisphenol A condensation of phenol and acetone
Dimethyl terephthalate Esterification of terephthalic acid
C4 Products C4 Process Descriptions
Acrylatee Esterification of acrylic acid
p-cresol Sulfunation of toluene
Methyl methacrylate Acetone cyanohydrin process
Terephthalic acid Nitric acid process
Tetraethyl lead Addition of ethyl chloride to lead
amalgum
Source-. EPA Development Document, April 1973, pp. 28-29.
3-183
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Waste Sources and Pollutants. Water is used in many
production processes as a reaction vehicle, and also as a
vehicle to separate or to purify the final products by
scrubbing, steam stripping, or absorption. In addition, a
considerable amount of water is used for heating (steam) and
cooling, and for washing reaction and storage vessels, etc.
The effluent limitations guidelines for the organic
chemicals industry cover the following pollutants: BOD5,
COD, total suspended solids, phenols, and pH. The
limitation placed upon pH in all cases in between 6.0 and
9.0. it should be noted that process wastewaters subject to
limitations include all process waters exclusive of auxilary
sources, such as boiler and cooling water blowdown, water
treatment back wash, laboratories, and other similar
sources.
Control Technology and Costs. Technologies employed in the
organic chemicals industry for the control of wastewater
pollutants include in-process modifications, pollution
control equipment, and end-of-pipe wastewater treatment.
From a pollution-control standpoint, the most significant
change that can be made in process chemistry is from a "wet"
process to a "dry" process/ that is, the substitution of
some other solvent for water in which to carry out the
reaction or to purify the product. Other in-process
technologies observed or recommended for the organic
chemicals industry include the substitution of surface heat
exchangers for contact cooling water, substitution of vacuum
pump steam Jet ejectors, recycle of scrubber water, and
regeneration of contact process steam from contaminated
condensate.
Biological treatment systems are the most common end-of-pipe
technologies used in the organic chemicals industry today.
These systems include activated sludge, trickling filters,
aerated lagoons, and anaerobic lagoons. Other systems used
include stripping towers, deep-well disposal, physical
treatment, activated carbon, and incineration. Where
phenols are present in wastewaters, they may be removed by
solvent extraction, carbon absorption, caustic
precipitation, or steam stripping; cyanide may be removed by
oxidation. Five of 34 plants surveyed discharged their
effluent to a municipal treatment system; three had no
current treatment systems.
In-process controls commensurate with BPT include
segregation of waste streams, the substitution of nonaqueous
media in which to carry out the reactions or to purify the
products, recycling or reuse of process water, and the
recovery of products and byproducts from the wastewaters by
3-184
-------
solvent extraction, absorption, or distillation. End-of-
pipe treatment commensurate with BPT is based on the use of
biological systems as mentioned above. These systems
include additional treatment operations such as
equalization, neutralization, primary clarification with oil
removal, nutrient addition, and effluent polishing steps,
such as coagulation, sedimentation, and filtration. Phenol
removal is also required in some cases.
Technology commensurate with BAT includes the addition of
activated carbon to the BPT biological systems to achieve
substantial reductions of dissolved organic compounds. In-
process controls applicable to BAT include:
• Substitution of non-contact heat exchangers for direct
contact water cooling
• Use nonaqueous quench media
• Recycle process water
• Reuse process water as a make-up to evaporative cooling
towers
• Use process water to produce low pressure steam by non-
contact heat exchange
• Recover spent acids or caustic solution for reuse
• Recover and reuse spent catalysts
• Use nonaqueous solvents for extraction products.
End-of-pipe technology for NSPS is defined as biological
treatment with suspended solids removal via clarification,
sedimentation, sand, or dual-media filtration, in addition,
exemplary in-process controls, as previously enumerated, are
also assumed to be applicable, particularly where biotoxic
pollutants must be controlled.
3-185
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A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Total Phase I Phase II
incremental BPT investment $941.2 684.0 257.3
Incremental BPT O&M $ 75.5 55.1 20.5
Estimates form the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are industry
definition expansion, different estimates of "capital-in-
place", different model plant sizes, and different hydraulic
load data.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to industries
of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-186
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I
M
CO
Table 4-16-2.
Organic Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
Capacity:
Phase I (1.0OO Liters/Day) 4,515,900.
Phase II (kkg/Day) 37,140.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985:
Phase I = 6.55%
Phase II = 6.65%
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Dissolved Sol ids
Oils and Greases
Adds
Bases
Nutrients
Legislated Controls-.
TSS
BOD5
COD
Dissolved Sol Ids
Oils and Greases
Acids
Bases
Nutrients
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase I
Investment
1977
1983
6,736,900.
55,406.
1983
1985
7.336.9OO.
60,335
1985
48. 16
274.85
798.04
3,756,08
11. 05
0
18.46
25.78
65.22
37O.77
1,079.50
5,251 .61
14.79
0
25.81
36.37
68.77
393,49
1,143.76
5,616.55
15.68
0
27.44
66. 12
17.39
79.21
628.97
3.767.O3
1O.43
0
16.24
25.84
4.98
7.39
322 . 76
5.237.20
12.99
0
21.69
36.19
2.94
4.41
185.60
5,591.88
13.57
O
22 97
61.29
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
1978-83
1976-85
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
995.55
6.OO
337.61
26.83
1.365.98
(BPT) 1,465.44 (BAT) 1,954.53
O.OO O.OO
1,685.03
229.06
3,379.53
2, 175.05
336.46
4,466.03
-------
Table 4-16-2. (Continued)
Organic Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
CONTRdL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued) COST IN YEAR
Phase I (Continued)
AnnualIzed Costs 1977 1983 1985 1976-85
Annualized Capital' 176.06 590.11 631.47 4.0O6.74'
O&M1
U> On-s1te Treatment 682.18 1,063.43 1,364.76 9,586.90
,L Pretreatment 2.66 4.13 4.49 35.71
00 Totals 684.84 1,067.56 1,369.25 9,622.60
00
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery 12.11 42.97 43.88 336.46
User Charges* 21.14 42.36 44.65 493.4O
Totals 33.25 85.33 88.52 829.86
Grand Totals 894.15 1,742.99 2,089.24 14,459.20
1 Annual 1 zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage valge.
' The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
5 O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made In the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made In that year.
1 User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Phase I Organic Chemicals Industry Includes subcategories A, B-1, B-2, C-1, C-2, C-3, and C-4
as defined 1n Table 4-16-1.
-------
Table 4-16-2. (Continued)
Organic Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
CO
\o
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase II
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annualized Costs
Annual 1zed Capital1
OSM3
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
71 . 12
13.87
33.35
15.77
134.10
1977
15.55
24.45
5.38
29.83
7. 12
12.43
19.54
1978-83
1976-85
(BPT) 511.83 (BAT) SS3.58
O.OO O.OO
167.16
134.64
813.63
215.79
197.76
967.14
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985
1O4.82 1O8.91
1976-85
595.64'
41.58 117.89 496.50
8.81 9.54 75.62
5O.39 127.43 572.12
25.26
24.90
5O. 16
25.79
26.24
52.03
197.76
290.02
487.78
Grand Totals
64.92
2O5.36 288.37 1,655.54
-------
Table 4-16-2. (Continued)
Organic Chemicals
Industry Data Summary
w
I
Phase II (Continued)
1 Annual 1 zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annual Ized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
* O&M costs 1n any year are relative to investment made In the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under InvestmenJ recovery.
Note: The Phase II Organic Chemicals industry includes subeategorles B-3, C-3, C-5, C-6 and D-4 as
defined In Table 4-16-1.
-------
PHOSPHATE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Establishments
included in the phosphate manufacturing industry as defined
by the effluent limitations guidelines are manufacturers of
the following chemicals:
Phosphorus
Fer rophosphorus
Phosphoric acid (dry process)
Phosphorus pentoxide
Phosphorus pentasulfide
Phosphorus trichloride
Phosphorus oxychloride
Sodium tripolyphosphate
Calcium phosphates (food grade)
Calcium phosphates (animal feed grade).
This industry is almost entirely based on the production of
elemental phosphorus from mined phosphate rock. Elemental
phosphorus and ferrophosphorus (a byproduct) are
manufactured by the reduction of phosphate rock by coke in
very large electric furnaces, using silica as a flux.
Because elemental phosphorus is relatively low in weight
compared to phosphate rock and to phosphoric acid, the
elemental phosphorus is produced near the mining site and
shipped to locations near the final markets for further
processing.
Over 87 percent of the elemental phosphorus is used to
manufacture high-grade phosphoric acid by the furnace or dry
process. This process involves burning of liquid phosphorus
in air, the subsequent quenching and hydrolysis of the
phosphorus pentoxide vapor, and the collection of the
phosphoric acid mists.
The manufacture of the anhydrous phosphorus chemicals-
phosphorus pentoxide ),
and phosphorus trichloride (PC13) - is essentially the
direct union of phosphorus with the corresponding elesvonx:.
Phosphorus oxychloride (POC13_) is manufactured from PC13 and
air or from PC13_, P2O5^, and chlorine.
Sodium tripolyphosphate is manufactured in the
neutralization of phosphoric acid with caustic soda and soda
ash in mix tanks. The resulting mixture of mono-and di-
sodium phosphates is dried and the crystals calcined to
produce the tripolyphosphate.
3-191
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The calcium phosphates are similarity made by the
neutralization of phosphoric acid with lime. The amount and
type of lime used and the amount of water needed in the
process determine whether anhydrous monocalcium phosphate
monohydrate, dicalcium phosphate dihydrate, or tricalcium
phosphate is the final produdt. Animal feed grade dicalciam
phosphate is produced by the same process as the other
calcium phosphates except that, because less purity in the
final product is necessary, wet process phosphoric acid is
normally used and the reaction may be conducted without
excess water.
For the most part, the products included in the phosphate
manufacturing industry ar6 produced by divisions of large
chemical or petroleum companies. The derivatives of
phosphorus are generally manufactured by the same companies
that produce elemental phosphorus. Furthermore, a large
proportion of the products are used internally by the
producing company for the production of other products and,
hence, are not sold on the open market.
The biggest factors determining the future of the industry
are government regulation and technological innovation. The
declining production of phosphorus, for example, is the
result of government bans on phosphate detergents. In
addition, the TVA plant i'6 expected to shut down in 1976, as
a shift to production of wet phosphoric acid is
accomplished.
Waste Sources and Pollutants, tfater is primarily used in
the phosphate manufacturing industry for eight principal
purposes: non-contact cooling water, process and product
water, transport-water, contact cooling or heating' water,
atmospheric seal water, scrubber water, auxiliary process
water, and miscellaneous uses. very large quantities of
non-contact cooling water are used for cooling the electric
furnaces used in phosphorus production. Contact cooling
water is used to quench the slag from the phosphorous
furnaces. Process or product vater contacts and generally
becomes part of the product, 'such as the hydrolysis and
dilution water used in phosphoric add manufacture and the
water used as a reaction medlu» in food-grade dicalcium
phosphate manufacture. Because some of the materials in
this industry spontaneously ignite on contact with air, the
air is Kept out of reaction vessels vith a water seal, and
liquid phosphorus is protected by storage under a water
blanket; these seal waters are considered process waters.
Auxiliary process water includes those used in such
auxiliary operations as ion exchange regeneration, equipment
washing, and spill and leak washdown.
3-192
-------
The following pollutant parameters have been designated for
the industry's process wastevaters: total suspended solids,
phosphate and elemental phosphorus, sulfates and sulfites,
fluoride, chloride, dissolved solids, arsenic, cadmium,
vanadium, radioactivity, temperature (heat), and pH. The
primary parameters, i.e., those which need to be used to set
effluent standards, are total suspended nonfilterable
solids, total phosphorus, fluoride, arsenic, and pH. The
remaining pollutants are either adequately treated when the
primary parameters are treated, or are present only in waste
streams for which a zero discharge standard has been set.
The effluent limitations guideline for most of the phosphate
manufacturing industry is discharge of process wastewater
pollutants to navigable waters. Process water is defined as
any water that comes into direct contact with any raw
material, intermediate product, byproduct, or gas or liquid
that has accumulated such constituents.
The only exceptions to these standards are the BPT
guidelines for phosphorus and ferrophosphorus, phosphorus
trichloride, phosphorus oxychloride, and food-grade calcium
phosphates.
Control Technology and Costs. Traditional sanitary
engineering practices that treat effluents containing
organic material in order to reduce biological oxygen demand
are inapplicable to the phosphate manufacturing industry
where such pollutant constituents are not significant.
Hence, control and treatment of wastes are of the chemical
and chemical engineering variety. These include
neutralization, precipitation, ionic reactions, filtration,
centrifugation, ion exchange, demineralization, evaporation
and drying. in-process abatement measures include
segregation of waste streams, recycling scrubber water, dry
dust collection, containment of leaks and spills, and
minimization of the quanitity of wash water. Table 4-17-1,
lists the major treatment alternatives that have been
identified for manufacturers in the phosphate manufacturing
industry. Many of the manufacturing establishments
currently have no treatment installed, while others have
already achieved zero discharge.
3-193
-------
Table 4-17-1.
Phosphate Manufacturing industry
Effluent Treatment Alternatives
Subcategory
Phoophorua
consuming
Phosphorus
Phosphate
producing
Chemical
P4(Fe2P>
V°4
PO
P2S5
PC13
POC^
K«BP3°1D
CaHPO
CaHP04
Feed grade
Alternative
A
B
A
B
A
B
A
B
C
A
B
C
D
A
B
C
D
A
A
B
A
B
Description
Existing control complete recycle of phoasy water. Evaporation
of some other process water. Lime treatment and sedimentation
of remaining process water prior to discharge.
Piping, pumping, and controls for 100% recycle of process
waste waters.
No treatment. (Only waatawaters originate from leaks, spills,
etc.)
Tight1") hOTSflk""Tf"iI """I TT^lltW*"''"- nlt« nnd rfBTn around
pumps, valves, tanks, etc. Provide sumps and sump pumps.
Treat with lime and landfill the sludge.
No treatment.
Lime treatment, settling tank, recycle of tank overflow back to
process, and landfill sludge.
No treatment.
Recycle scrubber water.
Lime treatment, settling tank, recycle tank overflow back to
process, I«II»MII sludge, + B,
No treatment.
Recycle scrubber water.
Lime treatment, settling tank and landfill sludge, + B.
Evaporation, + B+ C.
No treatment.
Recycle scrubber water.
Lime treatment, settling tank, and landfill sludge + B.
Evaporation + B •*• C.
Dry dust collection already In existence at exemplary plant. May
be economically justified on the basis of product recovery.
In-process controls for phosphate and lime dusts and for
phosphoric acid mists, Including dry dust collection and scrubber
water recycle to process.
Lime treatment, settling-pood, recycle of clarified water to acid
scrubbers, and landfill sludge, + A.
Replace wet scrubbers with baghouses.
Lime treatment, filtration of slurry, recycle of filtrate, and
landfill of Biter cake/ + A.
Source: EPA Development Document, January 1974.
3-194
-------
The technology recommended to achieve zero discharge of
wastewaters in the phosphate manufacturing industry consists
of recycling atmospheric seal ("phossy") waters, scrubber
liquors, and other process waters following lime treatment
and sedimentation or alternative methods of reducing water
flow, such as the use of dilute caustic or lime slurry
instead of pure water in the process; use of dry dust
collectors, and the return of process waste streams and
blowdown streams to the process.
Zero discharge of arsenic-rich still residues from the
manufacture of phosphorus trichloride can be achieved
through treatment with trichloroethylene.
For those industry subcategories where some discharge is
allowed, the recommended treatment consists of waste-
reducing steps such as those above, but with some discharge
following lime treatment and sedimentation, sometimes with
flocculation. Additional treatment to achieve zero
discharge for these subcategories consists of total
recycling of all process waters for phosphorous producer •
control of PCH vapors by installation of refrigerated
condensers, minimization of wastewaters and treatment by
lime neutralization followed by evaporation to dryness for
manufacturers of phosphorus trichloride and phosphorus
oxychloride; and the addition of vacuum filtration of
treated wastewaters followed by total recycling for
producers of food-grade calcium phosphates.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints1 prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The phosphate G&P estimates are
as follows (in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment 68.6
Incremental BPT O&M 15.5
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. The principal reason for the differences is
that G&P scaled the .costs associated with each model plant
size because of industry and Department of Commerce comments
concerning the low level of the estimates.
3-195
-------
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-196
-------
w
I
VD
-J
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Table 4-17-2.
Phosphate Manufacturing
Industry Data Summary
1977
1983
Capacity (kkg/Day) 16,590. 26,567.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 7.23%
EFFLUENTS ('1 .OOO MT/Yr) 1977 1983
Note: Residual data not available at time of Report Issue.
1971 Controls:
Legislated Controls:
1985
28,938.
1985
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
33.21 (BPT) 34,13 (BAT) 49.76
O.OO O.OO 0.00
1.83 42.88 5O.57
O.O 0.0 0.0
35.05 77.01 10O.33
-------
Table 4-17-2. (Continued)
Phosphate Manufacturing
Industry Data Summary
vo
00
CONTROL COSTS (Million 197S $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs 1977
Annual 1zed Capital' 4.61
O&M3
On-site Treatment 4.41
Pretreatment 0.0
Totals 4.41
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery O.O
User Charges* 0.0
Totals O.O
Grand Totals 9.02
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985
14.73 15.74
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.06
O.O
0.0
0.0
26.92
1976-85
1O0.27*
8.33 11.18 72.26
O.O 0.0 O.O
8.33 11.18 72.26
0.0
0.0
0.0
172.53
1 Annual1zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior: year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
' User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent Is denoted under- Investment recovery.
Note: The Phosphate Manufacturing industry includes the production of elemental phosphorus from
mined phosphate rock.
-------
PLASTICS AND SYNTHETICS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The plastics and
synthetics industry comprises 17 product subcategories.
Current effluent limitations guidelines do not apply to four
product subcategories, epoxies/ melamine, urea, and
phenolics, and the 13 remaining product subcategories are:
polyvinyl chloride, ABS/SAN, polystyrene, polyvinyl acetate,
low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene,
polypropylene, acrylic, polyester, nylon 6 and nylon 66,
cellophane, cellulose acetate, and rayon.
The main raw materials sources for the plastics and
synthetics industry are petroleum and natural gas. In terms
of volume, the rayon, cellophane, and cellulose acetate
subcategories are the major producers. The plastics and
synthetics industry is an intermediate type industry that
takes the processed raw material or monomer and converts it
into a resin or plastic material which is later converted
into a plastic item by another segment of the industry.
Over 50 percent of synthetic resins are used for one of the
following:
• Building and construction: paint, flooring, wall
covering, siding, etc,-
• Packaging: polyethylene films, rigid plastic containers
and bottles, etc.; and
• Automotive: trim, steering wheels, grill, etc.
Manufacturing in the various subcategories involves a
variety of chemical polymeterization processes in which the
large synthetic molecules, or polymers, are formed. In the
high pressure mass polymerization process, ethylene gas is
mixed with air or oxygenated organic compounds as catalysts
and with recycled ethylene. This mixture is then raised to
a high temperature in a reciprocating compressor to produce
the desired polymer,, in this case, low density polythylene.
Rayon, polyester, cellulose acetate and other fibers are
produced by adding a spinning process after the
polymerization is complete.
Exports amount to 6-8 percent of production and outstripped
imports, which only amounted to 4-5 percent of consumption.
Foreign competition is intense, but it has no significant
effect on potential domestic revenue.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. In order to set effluent
limitations guidelines, the dimension of wastewater
3-199
-------
characteristics was chosen as a basis for subcategorization.
The four major subcategories are defined as:
• Major Subcategory I: Low waste load (< 10 kgAkg), low
attainable 3OD5_ concentration (< 20 Jtig/D* Products
affected: polyvinyl chloride, polyvinyl acetate,
polystyrene, polyethylene, and polypropylene.
• Major Subcategory II: High waste load (> 10 kgAkg),
low attainable BOD5_ concentration << 20 mg/1).
Products affected: ABS/SAN, cellophane, and rayon.
» Major Subcategory III: High waste load (> 10 kgAkg),
medium attainable BODjj^ concentration (30-75 mg/1).
Products affected! polyesters, nylon 66, nylon 6, and
cellulose acetates.
• Major Subcategory IV: High waste load (> 10 kgAXg],
low treatability. Product affected: acrylics.
The main sources contributing to the total waste load come
from spills, leaks, and accidents. 'Other sources include:
washdown of process vessels, area housekeeping, utility
blowdowri, and laboratory wastes. Waste streams from cooling
towers,-steam-generating facilities, and water treatment
facilities are generally combined with process wastewater
and then are sent to the treatment plant.
in order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
BPT, BAT, and NSPS: BOD£, COD, TSS, zinc, pH, phenolic
compounds, and total chromium.'
Control Technology and Costs. Waste treatment methods in the
plastics and synthetics industry include the following:
biological treatment, single or double stage aeration,
adsorption, granular-activated carbon systems, chemical
precipitation, anaerobic process, air stripping, chemical
oxidation, foam separation, algae systems, incineration,
liquid extraction, ion exchange, reverse osmosis, freeze
thaw, evaporation, electrodialysis, and in-plant controls.
BPT guidelines for existing point sources are based on the
application of end-of-pipe technology, such as biological
treatment for BOD reduction by activated sludge, aerated
lagoons, trickling filters, aerobic-anaerobic lagoons, etc.,
with preliminary treatment typified by equalization,
dampening of shock loadings, settling, and clarification.
BPf also calls for chemical treatment for the removal of
suspended solids, oils, and other elements, as well as pH
control and subsequent treatment typified by clarification
3-200
-------
and polishing processes for additional BOD and suspended
solids removal, and dephenolizing units for phenolic
compound removal when needed, in-plant technology and other
changes that may be helpful in meeting BPT include
segregation of contact process wastewater from non-contact
wastewaters, elimination of once-through barometric
condensers, control of leaks, and good housekeeping
practices.
BAT standards call for the segregation of contact process
waters from non-contact wastewater, maximum wastewater
recycle and reuse, elimination of once-through barometric
condensers, control of leaks, good housekeeping practices
and end-of-pipe technology, further removal of suspended
solids and other elements typified by media filtration,
chemical treatment, etc. Also included are further COD
removal as typified by the application of adsorptive floes,
and incineration for the treatment of highly-concentrated,
small volume wastes, as well as additional biological
treatment for further BOD5 removal when needed.
NSPS are based on BPT and call for the maximum possible
reduction of process wastewater generation and the
application of media filtration and chemical treatment for
additional suspended solids, other element removal, and
additional biological treatment for further BOD5_ removal as
needed.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)*. This, study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million.1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT investment $355.6
Incremental BPT O&M $ 36.3
3-201
-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are basic industry
definition expansion, changes in plant inventory estimates,
different estimates of "capital-in-place", and varying
discharges to municipal treatment systems.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the water Pollution control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-202
-------
Table 4-18-1.
Plastics and Synthetics
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (Million kg/Yr) 57.96 93.35
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 8.19%
102.01
N)
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Dissolved Solids (Rayon only)
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Dissolved Solids (Rayon only)
1977
1983
1985
193
417
87O
22
123
213.
516,
5.
.83
.96
.28
.47
.55
.79
.10
.91
264
585
1,218
34
8O
82.
294
.80
.34
.97
.02
.41
.75
.80
.25
281.
625.
1 , 303 .
37.
67,
55.
228.
. 16
91
88
85
09
11
06
09
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83 1976-85
464,63 (BPT) 228.83 (BAT) 474. <
38 . 8O O . OO O . OO
167. 12
0.04
670.59
870. 15
O.36
1,099.34
1 , 084 . 39
O.53
1,558.95
-------
Table 4-18-1. (Continued)
Plastics and Synthetics
Industry Data Summary
W
I
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annual!zed Capital1
O&M1
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
88. 16
75.51
2.OS
77.59
O.O2
0.03
O.O5
165.8O
COST IN YEAR
1983 1985 1976-85
232.65 249.67 1.729.41'
144.60 158.O6 1,211.82
3.98 4.29 33.21
148.58 162.34 1,244.72
0.07
O.07
O. 14
O.O7
0.07
0. 14
O.53
O.8O
1 .32
381.36 412.16 2,975.45
Annualized on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent interest with zero salvage value.
The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Plastics and Synthetics industry includes production of cellophane, rayon, polyester, and
nylon 6.
-------
PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The petroleum
refining industry comprises about 130 firms operating 24?
refineries in 39 states. Firms in the petroleum refining
industry can be classified according to size, range of
products, extent of integration, and the number and size of
refineries owned. All refineries are necessarily multi-
product, and all perform the entire process of converting
qrude oil into salable products. As of 1974, the 17 largest
firms, operating 110 of the 247 refineries, accounted for 80
percent of the industry's capacity.
The petroleum refining industry produces hundreds of
distinguishably different products, which can be grouped
into four broad product classes: gasoline, intermediates,
residual, and oil and all others. Gasoline accounts for
about 45 percent of industry output; intermediates comprise
about 33 percent, including military and commercial jet
fuel, Kerosene, space heating oil, and diesel fuel; residual
oil amounts to about 8 percent of domestic petroleum
production; and other all products include asphalt,
lubricants, liquefied, petroleum gas (mostly propane),
naphthas and solvents, coke, petrochemicals, and
petrochemical feedstocks. Crude oil is the most important
raw material used by the industry; natural gasoline, a
liquid product of the natural gas industry, furnishes about
5 percent of refinery intakes. There are no other
significant raw materials.
Small refineries are designed to process low-sulfur crude
oil into the naturally occurring volumes of gasoline,
intermediates, and residual products. Such refineries
require only a crude oil distillation unit, a catalytic
reformer with feed pretreater, two or three additional
distillation .columns, and treating units. Because asphalt,
one of the residual products, is costly to transport, a
large'percentage of the nation's asphalt is produced in
small refineries. Over a third of the plants with
capacities below 10,000 barrels per day produce asphalt as a
principal product.
On the other hand, large refineries produce a full range of
fuel products plus lubricants, industrial solvents,
liquified petroleum gas, and a "few common chemicals- these
refineries have more than a score of process units to
produce these diversified products.
3-205
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Although a typical oil refinery is technically complex, the
process is conceptually simple. Crude oils, which are
liquid mixtures of many carbon-containing compounds, are
first separated into several groups of varying molecular
size Known as cuts. The chemical composition of some of
these cuts is then altered by changing the average molecular
size. Some cuts are further processed to alter the shape or
structure of the molecules. Most of the original cuts are
"treated" to make the impurities innocuous or to remove them
completely, particularly sulfur. Treated cuts are then
blended to produce finished products, to which various
substances, known as additives, may be added to impart
certain desireable properties.
Refining operations may be divided into 12 general
categories or groups of refining operations;
» storage and transportation
e Crude processes
« Coking processes
* Cracking and thermal processes
« Hydrocarbon processing
» Petrochemical operations
• Lube manufacturing processes
» Treating and finishing
» Asphalt production
• Auxiliary activities.
Refineries, which may incorporate some or all of these
operations, are classified according to the specific
operations included. Based upon an analysis of refinery raw
waste loads, EPA has divided the industry into five
subcategories:
Topping. Topping plants are refineries whose processing
is largely confined to converting oil into raw products by
simple atmospheric distillation. The topping subcategory
includes all refineries that combine all processes except
cracking and coking.
Cracking. The term cracking applies to a group of
processes in which heavy molecular weight or fractions are
broken down into lover weight fractions. Refineries in this
subcategory are those that have topping and cracking
operations.
Petrochemical. Plants in this subcategory have topping
cracking, and petrochemical operations.
Lube. This subcategory includes refineries with topping,
cracking, and lube oil manufacturing processes.
3-206
-------
Integrated. Integrated refineries are those with topping,
cracking, lube oil manufacturing processes, and
petrochemical operations.
Current industry capacity is approximately 14 million
barrels per day. Very few new refineries have been built in
the last 5 years, and industry growth has occurred primarily
through the expansion of existing facilities. This
situation is caused in part by the difficulty in securing
approval for new refinery sites. The intensity of the
energy shortage in 1974 resulted in the largest absolute
capacity increase since 1967 and the largest percentage
increase in at least a decade. This increase was 6.2
percent, compared with 2.3-4.3 percent for the preceding 3
years.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. wastewater pollutants are
generated in the various refining processes as high
temperature water, suspended solids, total organic carbon,
and salts separated from the crude oil. Acids, caustics,
catalysts, and various solvents that are brought into
contact with the oil are collected, washed out, or allowed
to leak into the waste stream. Pollutants also enter the
waste stream from washing tanks, equipment, catalysts, etc.;
from cooling water blowdown; and from leaks and spillage.
Additional flows and waste loads are created by storm water
runoff from the refineries' grounds and from the disposal of
ballast water.
The following parameters are covered under the effluent
limitations guidelines: BODS^, total suspended solids, COD,
oil and grease, phenolic compounds, ammonia {as N), sulfide,
total chromium, hexaualent chromium, and pH.
Each different process in the oil industry is a series of
unit operations that cause chemical and or physical
synthesis of the desired products. Each unit operation may
have drastically different water usages associated with it;
this in turn implies that the types and quantities of
wastewater generated by each plant's total production mix
are unique.
Control Technology and Costs. Wastewater treatment
processes currently used in the petroleum refining industry
include equalization and storm diversion; initial oil and
solids removal (API separators or baffle plate separators);
further oil and solids removal (clarifiers, dissolved air
flotation,, or filters); carbonaceous waste removal
(activated sludge, aerated lagoons, oxidation ponds,
trickling filter activated carbon, or combinations of
3-207
-------
these); and filters (sand or multi-media) following
biological treatment methods.
BET guidelines are based upon both in-plant and end-of-pipe
control practices widely used within the industry. These
include the above listed end-of-pipe technologies plus:
• Installation of sour water strippers to reduce the
sulfide and ammonia concentrations entering the
treatment plant.
• Elimination of once-through barometeric condenser water
by using surface condensers or recycle systems with
oily water cooling towers.
* segregation of sewers, so that unpolluted storm runoff
and once-through cooling waters are not treated
normally with the process and other polluted waters.
« Elimination of polluted once-through cooling water by
monitoring and repair of surface condensers or by use
of wet and dry recycle systems.
• Granular media filtration or polishing ponds prior to
discharge.
BAT guidelines call for further reductions of water flow in-
plant, and the addition of a physical-chemical treatment
step (activated carbon) in the end-of-pipe treatment system.
BAT in-plant technology is based on control practices now in
use by some plants in the industry and include:
• Use of air cooling equipment.
• Reusing; sour water stripper bottoms in crude desalter-
once-through cooling water as make-up to the water
treatment plant; boiler condensate as boiler feedwater-
overhead accumulator water in desalters; and heated
water from the vacuum overhead condensers to heat the
crude.
• Recycling: water from coking operations, waste acids
from alkylation units- and overhead water in water
washes.
• Use of wastewater treatment plant effluent as cooling
water, scrubbing water, and influent to the water
treatment plant.
• Use of closed compressor and pump cooling water system*
3-208
-------
• Use of rain water runoff as cooling tower make-up or
water treatment plant feed.
NSPS are based upon the application of BPT practices to the
wastewater flows used as the basis for BAT.
The most recent anlysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Agency by Sobotka & Co., Inc./ (S&C)*. This
analysis was conducted in somewhat greater depth than, and
subsequent to the general data gathering efforts associated
with the SEAS uniform cost calculation procedure, and is
considered to be more precise. However, time and resource
constraints prevented incorporating these costs into the
scenario analyses using the SEAS model procedure. The S&C
estimates are as follows (in million 1975 dollars):
BPT BAT
Incremental Investment $1,610 $476
Incremental O&M $ 180 $ 46
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are different
estimates of "capital-in-place", differences in attribution
of O&M to federal laws, and differences in cost estimates
for sludge handling, it is interesting to note that the
forecasts of investment expenditures over the period 1976-
1985 are in extremely close agreement for both studies, with
S&C forecasting 1,770 million dollars and SEAS listing
1,713. S&C assumes elimination of the "once-through"
cooling water to be identified with BPT systems, whereas
SEAS placed this to be BAT treatment. Of the total S&C
incremental investment figure for BPT, 43 percent is related
to end-of-pipe treatment processes or auxiliary and handling
equipment. This figure represents an estimate 27 percent
higher than the SEAS corresponding projection. Much of the
difference in these two figures can be attributed to
engineering assumptions about equipment necessary for
auxiliary and sludge handling, which accounts for over 45
percent of these costs. S&C also estimates $379 million for
BPT related expenditures on in-plant measures. SEAS
includes associated land costs, unlike S&C. The methodology
for extrapolating costs differed markedly between the two
studies. S&C made its primary distinction between large and
small plants (<10,000 barrels/day). For large plants, data
was available such that cost calculations could be made for
121 refineries. These were then extrapolated over the
entire category. For small plants, 11 refineries, were
sampled, and the results similarly extrapolated. SEAS
3-209
-------
calculations are based upon model plants in several
categories. Three model plant sizes vere assumed for
topping; three for catalytic cracking,- three for
petrochemicals, BPT treatment; five for BAT treatment; lube
oils lists three model plant sizes for BPT, with six for
BAT; and integrated having three classes for BPT; five for
BAT.
Another important factor in the cost estimates is the
assumed growth pattern. Although S&C and SEAS differ very
little in total growth for 1972-1983, the distribution of
the growth is graphically different. S&C assumes that 64
percent of the growth occurs between 1973 and 1977
(3,195,000 barrels/day), while SEAS assumes only 23.3
percent of overall growth (1,179,800 barrels/day} to occur
during the initial five-year period.
S&C also calculates costs for "grass roots" refineries and
expansions on a different basis. The expansions after 1977
must make substantially higher investments, so the total
expansions investment figure is somewhat weighted toward
this latter period. The distribution of the growth in size
categories also differed markedly between the two studies
with S&C assuming expansion in the large plant sizes, with
SEAS making no distinctions between types of expansion and
spreads the expansion over the model plant sizes.
"Economic impact of EPA'S Regulations on the Petroleum
Refining industry", SobotXa & Co., inc., April, 1976.
3-210
-------
Table 4-19-1.
Petroleum Refining
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (1,OOO Bbl/Day) 15,776. 20,228.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.99%
21,651.
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Oils and Greases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Oils and Greases
1977
1983
1985
10.
19,
88.
3
9.
15.
88.
3.
.66
.62
.78
.01
,31
81
, 15
14
13
25
113
3
5.
7.
44.
1 .
.66
. 14
.73
.86
95
72
.39
60
14
26
121
4
4
4.
23,
.59
.84
.44
. 12
.53
.51
.83
.85
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
447.34 (BPT)
1 .55
24.47
3.91
477.27
913
0
421 .
30.
1 , 365 .
.11 (BAT)
.00
,72
36
19
1, 136.89
O.OO
532.01
44.68
1 ,713.57
-------
Table 4-19-1. (Continued)
Petroleum Refining
Industry Data Summary
w
I
N>
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
AnnualIzed Costs
Annual 1 zed Capital'
O&M3
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
62,
67.
O.
68.
.23
.64
.41
.05
COST
IN YEAR
1983
237.
99.
O.
99.
,73
. 17
.36
.53
1985
252.
168.
0.
168.
.06
.00
.32
.32
1976-85
1,481
961
3
965
.60'
.79
.72
.51
1.73
2.9O
4.62
134.91
5.64
4.78
10.42
347.68
5.74
4.93
10.67
431.05
44.68
59.77
1O4.45
2,551.55
1 AnnualIzed on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent interest with zero salvage value.
' The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made In that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Petroleum industry includes topping, cracking, petrochemical, lube oil, and integrated
refining processes.
-------
RUBBER PROCESSING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The phase I
categories of the rubber processing industry covered by the
effluent limitations guidelines are the tire and inner tube
industry and the synthetic rubber industry.
The manufacture of tires and inner tubes employs completely
different processing techniques than does the production of
synthetic rubber. The typical tire manufacturing process
includes the following:
• Preparation or compounding of the raw materials
• Transformation of these compounded materials into five
tire components—tire bead coating, tire treads, tire
sidewall, inner liner stock, and coated cord fabric
• Building, molding, and curing the final product.
The raw materials used include a variety of synthetic and
natural rubbers; three categories of compounding materials:
filler, extenders, and reinforcers (carbon black and oil are
two common examples); and other chemicals that are used as
antioxidants, pigments, or curing and accelerator agents.
Compounding is usually carried out in a batch-type, internal
mixing device called a Banbury mixer. After mixing, the
compound is sheeted out in a roller mill, extruded into
sheets, or pelletized. The sheeted material is tacky and
must be coated with a soapstone solution to prevent the
materials from sticking together during storage. The
compounded rubber stock is transformed into one of the tire
components by molding, extruding, calendering, and a variety
of other operations. The tire is built up as a cylinder on
a collapsible, round rotating drum by applying the inner
layer, then by adding layers of cord, beads, belt, and
tread. Finally the "green" tire is molded and cured in an
automatic press, and the excess rubber is ground off. Inner
tubes are produced using the same basic processing steps.
The synthetic rubber industry is responsible for the
production of vulcanizable elastomers by polymerization or
co-polymerization. Table 4-20-1 identifies the various
synthetic rubbers, and lists their principal production
processes and end uses.
3-213
-------
Table 4-20-1.
Rubber Processing Industry
Synthetic Production Statistics
Families at Synthetic Rubbers Included En SIC 2822, Polymerization
Processes, and Annual U. S. Production (1972)
Principal Synthetic Rubber
Tiro Rubbers
Styrene-Butadlene robbers (SBR)
Polybutadlene rubbers (PER)
Folytsoprene robbers
Polyiaobutylene-lsoprene robbers
-------
Table 4-20-1. (Continued)
Rubber Processing industry
Synthetic Production Statistics
Principal Synthetic Rubber
CUoroauifoaated Poiyethylaoes
Polyaulfida rubber*
Specialty Rubber Sub-Total
Synthetic Rubber Total
Annual U.S.
Production
(l,OOOMT/yr)
15
10
129
3.121
Polymerization
Process
Poat-polymerl-
zattoo chlorina-
ttoo
Condensation
Principal End-use
Wire and cable,
shoes, linings.
paints
Sealing, glaring.
hose
Other Family
Members
Chlorinated
robber.
Kypalon
Thlol
Although nltrtle and neoprene-type rubbers are not normally termed tire rubbers, they are relatively large
production volume rubbers and, for convenience, can be Included with.the major tire rubbers.
ZSilloone, polyurethane and fluorocarbon derivative rubbers are considered part of the Plastics and
Synthetics Industry and are not covered by this document.
SChloro8ulfonatad and chlorinated polyethylenes should be considered part of the PlEatioa and Synthetics
Industry. They are not covered by this document.
*Polysulflde rubbers are produced by a condensation-type reaction which is not directly comparable to either
emulsion or solution polymerization. Per unit of rubber production, generated wastawaters are of considerably
poorer quality and more troublesome to treat than those of either emulsion or solution or solution processes.
Polyaulflds rubber production Is not covered by this document. It la recommended that a separata study be
made of the polysulflde, rubber Industry.
Source: C. F. Ruobenaaal, The Rubber Industry Statistical Report International Institute of Synthetic Rubber
Producers, Inc.
Reproduction from EPA Development Document, February 1974.
3-215
-------
.For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the synthetic rubber industry has been divided
into three'subcategories: emulsion crumb, solution crumb,
and latex. Crumb rubbers, generally for tires, are sold in
a solid form, and are produced through two different
processes: 'emulsion polymerization and solution
polymerization. Latex rubbers, generally for specialty
products, are sold in latex form, and are produced through
emulsion polymerization.
Emulsion polymerization is the traditional and dominant
process for producing synthetic rubber. The raw materials
(monomers) are usually styrene and butadiene, to which a
catalyst, activator, and modifier are added in a soap
solution to produce an emulsion in an aqueous medium;
polymerization proceeds step-wise through a train of
reactors. The product rubber is formed in the emulsion
phase of the reaction mixture, which is a milky white
emulsion called latex. Urire.acted monomers are then
recovered from the latex by vacuum stripping; the production
process ends at this point for -latex rubbers. If crumb
rubber is desired, sulfuric acid and .sodium chloride are
added to the latex to coagulate out the crumb rubber, which
is then dewatered, rinsed, filtered, and finally dried with
hot air to produce the final product.
The production of synthetic rubbers by solution
polymerization is a step processing operation very similar
to emulsion polymerization. For solution polymerization,
the monomers must be extremely pure, and the solvent
(hexane, for example) must be~completely anhydrous. The
polymerization reaction is more rapid (1 to 2 hours) and is
taken to over 90 percent conversion as compared to 60
percent conversion for emulsion polymerization. Both
monomers and solvents are generally passed through drying
columns to remove all water. After reaction, the mixture
leaves the reactor as a rubber cement; i.e. polymeric rubber
solids dissolved in solvent. As with emulsion
polymerization, coagulation, dewatering, and drying
processes produce the final product.
Tire and tube products ; are produced in 56 plants in the
United States,- about 70 percent of these plants are operated
by Firestone, General Tire, Goodrich, Goodyear, and
Uniroyal. The remaining plants are operated by 11 other
companies. Tire plants vary widely in capacity; the largest
produce approximately 30,000 tires per day, and the smallest
produces less than 5,000 per day.
Fourteen companies operating 28 plants produce the major
synthetic rubbers in the United States. Most of these
3-216
-------
plants are part of diversified complexes that produce other
products, such as rubber processing chemicals, plastics, and
basic intermediate organic chemicals.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The primary water useage in
the tire and inner tube industry is for non-contact cooling
and heating. Discharges from service utilities supplying
cooling water and steam are the major source of contaminants
in the final effluent. However, these non-process related
discharges are not covered by the effluent limitations
guidelines of this report. The process wastewaters consist
of mill area oily waters, soapstone slurry and latex dip
wastes, area washdown waters, emission scrubber waters, and
contaminated storm waters from raw material storage areas,
etc. For the purposes of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines for manufacturers of tires and inner tubes, the
following pollutant parameters have been designated as
significant: suspended solids, oil and grease, and pH.
Pollutant parameters considered to be of less significance
are biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand,
dissolved solids, temperature (heat), and chromium.
The principal waste streams from synthetic rubber
manufacture are steam and condensate from the monomer
recovery stripping operation, overflow of coagulation
liquors, and overflow of the crumb rubber rinse waters.
Area washdown and equipment clean-out wastewaters are also
major sources of' pollutants, particularly in latex rubber
plants where clean-up is more frequent because of smaller
production runs. For manufacturers of synthetic rubbers,
the following pollutant parameters have been designated as
significant: chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen
demand, suspended solids, oil and grease, and pH.
Pollutants also present in measurable quantities in the
waste streams, but not designated as significant, include:
total dissolved solids, surfactants, color, and temperature
(heat).
Control Technology and Costs. In the tire and inner tube
industry, the emphasis for present environmental control and
treatment technologies is placed on the control of air
quality and the reduction of pollutants in non-process
wastewaters. As a result, no adequate overall control and
treatment technology is employed by plants within the
industry. Primary emphasis is on removal of separable
solids from the non-process boiler blowdowns and water
treatment wastes, and from process washdown waters from the
soapstone area. Because of substantial dilution of process
wastewater by non-process waters, treatment is much less
3-217
-------
effective than could be expected, especially for oil and
grease.
End-of-pipe treatment generally involves the treatment of
combined process and non-process wastewater in a primary
sedimentation basin or lagoon.
Of 17 plants surveyed, four used chemical coagulation to
further reduce solids levels. Six plants had some form of
secondary treatment, either aerated lagoons, stabilization
ponds, or activated sludge treatment, and four discharged to
municipal systems. Only one plant performed totally
adequate treatment of all process water streams by achieving
no discharge through the use of spray irrigation and
evaporation. In-process controls commonly employed include
recirculation of soapstone solutions, elimination of drains
in dirty areas, and the use of oil sumps or separators.
The technology recommended to meet the effluent limitations
guidelines are:
1. Elimination of any discharge of soapstone solution by:
• Recycling
« Installation of curbing and the sealing of drains in
the soapstone dipping area
• Reuse the recirculating system washwater as make-up
for fresh soapstone solution.
2. Elimination of any discharge of latex solution by:
• Installation of curbing and the sealing of drains in
the latex dipping area
• Containment of all wastewaters in the area and
disposal by landfill.
3. Segregation, control, and treatment of all oily waste
streams.
4. isolation of process waters from non-process
wastewaters.
5. Treatment of process wastewaters with API-type gravity
separators to remove separable oil and solids.
6. Additional treatment through an absorbent filter for
further oil removal.
3-218
-------
Existing control and treatment technology practiced by the
synthetic rubber industry emphasized end-of-pipe treatment
rather than in-plant reduction because in-plant
modifications could affect processing techniques or the
quality of the final product.
Current treatment technology for both emulsion crumb and
latex plants involves primary clarification with chemical
coagulation of latex solids, followed by biological
treatment. As an alternative to chemical coagulation, air
flotation clarification of primary and secondary solids is
also practiced. Biological treatment systems include
activated sludge, aerated lagoons, and stabilization ponds.
The control and treatment technology recommended to meet BPT
and NSPS guidelines for emulsion crumb and latex plants is
chemical coagulation and biological treatment, improved
houskeeping and maintenance practices, as well as in-plant
modifications, particularly the use of crumb pits to remove
crumb rubber fines from coagulation liquor and crumb rinse
overflows. BAT has been defined as BPT plus the equivalent
of dual-media filtration followed by activated carbon
treatment of the effluent from the biological treatment
systems. Because solution crumb wastewaters do not contain
uncoagulated latex solids, the chemical coagulation step is
not necessary. BPT and NSPS technology for solution crumb
plants have been defined as comparable to primary
clarification and biological treatment, with the use of
crumb pits to catch crumb rubber fines before treatment.
BAT for solution crumb plants is the same as that for
emulsion crumb plants.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
incremental BPT investment $86.3
Incremental BPT O&M $ 8.1
3-219
-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are that G&P
includes the industry subcategories in Phase II of the EPA
Effluent Guidelines.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to industries
of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976}
3-220
-------
Table 4-2O-2.
Rubber Processing
Industry Data Summary
to
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity
1977
1983
1985
Old Tires Proc. (Units/Day) 1 ,025,786.
Synth. Rubber (Met. Tons/Day)
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS (except Rubber Reclaiming)
BOD5 (except Rubber Reclaiming)
Dissolved Sol Ids
(Latex Mfg. only)
011s and Greases
COD (Syn. Rubber only)
Legislated Controls:
TSS (except Rubber Reclaiming)
BODS (except Rubber Reclaiming)
Dissolved Sol ids
(Latex Mfg. only)
011s and Greases
COD (Syn. Rubber only)
11,178,
1976-1985
1977
19.95
9.91
O.76
3.91
41 .03
6.81
3. 15
O.2O
1.34
15.23
1,435.303.
14. 158.
= 5.79%
1983
26.99
12.89
O.94
5.29
S5.52
2.96
1.O5
0.02
0.63
8.62
1,539.463.
14,838.
1985
28.01
13.65
0.98
5.66
59.39
3. 12
1.11
O.02
0.67
9. 18
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annualized Costs
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
82.10 (BPT)
O.OO
2.25
0.0
84.35
1977
37.09
O.OO
45.08
O.O
82. 17
1983
(BAT) 76.93
O.OO
52.84
0.0
129.77
1985
1976-85
-------
Table 4-2O-2. (Continued)
Rubber Processing
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
w
to
Annualized Capital'
0&M>
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
Grand Totals
11 .09
4.42
0.0
4.42
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.51
COST IN. YEAR
21.89 22.89
7.77
0.0
7.77
0.0
0.0
O.O
29.67
16.02
0.0
16,02
0.0
0.0
0.0
38.92
166.72'
79.21
0.0
79.21
0.0
O.O
O.O
245.93
1 Annualized on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
*. The decade total of annual 1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User* charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Rubber Industry includes old and new tire processing, emulsion crumb and solution crumb
processing, and latex rubber processes.
-------
FERROALLOY INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There were 44
plants in the United States in 1972 which produced
ferroalloy manganese, chromium, and other additive metals.
The smelting and slag processing segments of the ferroalloy
manufacturing industry are subdivided into three
subcategories as follows: Subcategory I: open electric
furnaces with wet air pollution control devices, Subcategory
II: covered electric furnaces and other smelting operations
with wet air pollution control devices, and Subcategory nit
slag processing. In the first two subcategories, the main
source of wastewater results from the air pollution
scrubbers. In the third category, water is used only as a
transport or cooling medium.
Submerged-arc electric furnaces operate continously as power
is applied to the electrodes and they are supplied with
materials that consist mostly of reducing material (coal or
coke), iron and steel borings and turnings and ores that may
be charged to the furnace on either a continuous or an
intermittent basis. Due to the large volume of gases
emitted, water-cooled covers collect the gases and reduce
the amount of heat generated by the furnaces.
The four most important ferroalloys are: ferromanganese,
ferrosilicon, ferrochromiura, and silicomanganese.
Ferroalloys are used to produce steels of greater strength
and corrosion resistance, and in the deoxidation, alloying,
and graphitization processing of steel and cast iron.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The major wastewater source
in the ferroalloy manufacturing industry results from the
use of wet scrubbers (venturi-typei for air pollution
control. Approximately one-third of the furnaces in the
industry use such devices. The cooling of ferroalloy
furnaces also required large quantities of water. other
sources of wastewater stem from boiler feed, air
conditioning, and sanitary uses. wastewaters result from
slag processing operations in which slag is crushed and
sized for recovery of metal values, or from slag shotting
operations in which the slag is granulated for further use.
The primary wastewater effluents resulting from wet methods
for air pollution control are: suspended insoluble metcl
compounds, soluble metal compounds, cyanides, acid or basic
effluents, tars, and thermal discharges.
3-223
-------
The basic parameters, used in establishing water effluent
guidelines are: suspended solids, total chromium, hexovalent
chromium, total cyanide, manganese, phenol, and pH.
Control Technology and Costs. Current water pollution
control and treatment technology used in the ferroalloy
industry for those plants utilizing wet air pollution
control devices has been through sedimentation of scrubber
water in large lagoons. Hence, wastewaters are now being
treated by physical means.
Best Practicable Technology for Subcategories I and II
involves both physical and chemical treatment by means of
sedimentation (clarifiers and flocculators) and chemicals
such as: caustic or stilfuric acid solutions, sulfur dioxide,
and chlorine dioxides. Also included is recycling of water
at the scrubber to aid in removal of toxic pollutants.
Process water quality requirements for Subcategory III are
less stringent than the other two, but also requires
sedimentation and chemical treatment when necessary.
Best Available Technology (and NSPS) for Subcategories I and
II, in addition to BPT, includes recirculation of the
wastewater, which necessitates the addition of sand
filtration for suspended solids removal. Subcategory III,
in addition to BPT, will require process water recirculation
for suspended solids removal.
In order to compute the incremental capital costs to this
industry, it is necessary to estimate the number of plants
that have wet air pollution control devices. It is
estimated that 32 percent have wet air pollution control, 38
percent have dry air pollution control, and 30 percent have
no air pollution control.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesXin (G&P)». This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The ferroalloy G&f estimates are
as follows fin 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment 15.0
Incremental BPT O&M 5.0
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for the differences are
industry definition expansion and changes in plant inventory
3-224
-------
estimates. Note that both studies agree to within 12
percent.
3-225
-------
Table 4-21-1.
Ferroalloy
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
Capad ty
Slag Process (kkg/Day) 256.57
Ferrolloys (MW of Furnace Oper.) 2,129.
1983
355.26
2.639.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 4.07%
1985
358.55
2,669.
1^
to
01
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Solids
Nutrients
011s and Greases
Legislated Controls;
TSS
Dissolved Sol ids
Nutrients
Oils and Greases
1S77
1983
198.5
4
3
1 .
1 .
.52
.71
. 12
.35
.98
,81
. 14
41
5
4
0.
0,
.70
.68
. 15
.44
.97
. 18
.08
,3O
5.
4.
0.
0.
.
79
90
16
46
91
15
O5
24
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
1 1 .37 (BPT)
0.00
5.89
O.O
17.27
2O.45 (BAT)
0.00
29. 05
O.O
49. 5O
25.76
O.OO
31 .63
O.O
57. 4O
-------
Table 4-21-1. (Continued)
Ferroalloy
Industry Data Summary
U)
to
NJ
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annualized Capital1
Q&M*
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges4
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
2
1
O
1
0
0
O
.27
. 10
.0
. 1O
.0
.0
.O
COST
IN YEAR
1983
8.
1 .
0.
1 .
0.
0.
O.
78
47
O
47
O
0
0
1985
8
1
O
1 ,
0
O.
O.
.90
.76
.O
.76
.0
,O
.0
1976-85
57
13
O
13.
O.
0.
O.
.65'
.55
.O
.55
O
.0
O
3.37
10,25
10.67
71.19
1 Annualized on-site and pretreatroent costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of.annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
4 User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Ferroalloy Industry includes open and covered electric arc furnaces and slag processing.
-------
IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The iron and
steel industry is one of the largest in the nation,
comprising some 179 companies operating 420 plants; 23 steel
companies operate approximately 65 integrated steel plants.
These integrated plants represent about 90 percent of the
total steel-making capacity. The balance of the steel-
making capacity is represented by the non-integrated steel
producers, many of whom are classified as mini-mills.
The iron and steel industry comprises the coking, blast
furnace-sinter plant, iron casting, steel manufacturing, and
steel casting segments. The industry is primarily engaged
in manufacturing hot metal, pig iron, and ferroalloys from
iron ore and iron and steel scrap, and in converting pig
iron, scrap iron, and scrap steel into steel. Merchant
blast furnaces and byproduct or beehive coke ovens are also
included in the industry.
Three basic steps are involved in the production of steel.
First, coal is converted to pure carbon or coke. Second,
coke is then combined with iron ore and limestone in a blast
furnace to produce iron. Third, the iron is purified into
steel in either an open-hearth, basic-oxygen, or electric-
arc furnace. Further refinements include degassing by
subjecting the steel to a high vacuum. Steel that is not
cast in ingot molds can be cast in a process :called
continuous casting.
For the purpose of establishing effluent guidelines, the
industry has been divided into 12 subcategories as follows:
• Byproduct coke
* Beehive coke
• Sintering
• Blast furnace (iron]
• Blast furnace (ferromanganese)
• Basic-oxygen furnace (semi-wet air pollution
control methods)
• Basic-oxygen furnace (wet air pollution
control methods)
• Open-hearth furnace
3-228
-------
• Electric-arc furnace (semi-wet air pollution
control methods)
• Electric-arc furnace (wet air pollution
control methods)
* vacuum degassing
• Continuous casting.
Basic-oxygen furnaces and open-hearth furnaces produce
almost all of the steel;• electric-arc furnaces are mostly
mini-mills. Only seven electric-arc furnaces reported the
use of "wet" air pollution control equipment. Hence, the
effluent limitations guidelines apply mainly to the large,
integrated mills.
The total annual raw steel capacity tn 1972 of the iron and
steel industry was approximately 1,070 million metric tons.
Of this, the integrated mills accounted for approximately
154 million metric tons (94 percent).-
Although the year-to-year production of raw steel has
fluctuated widely, the average annual rate of growth over
the past 15 years has been about 3.5 percent, from 84
million metric tons in 1959 to an estimated 136 million
metric tons in 1973. This hasi been accomplished with a very
modest establishment of new integrated mills, although many
non-integrated "mini-mills" have been built. Most of the
increase in capacity has been accomplished by upgrading
capacities of existing steel plants, building larger blast
furnaces, and replacing open-hearth . furnaces with basic-
oxygen furnaces.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The principal source of
wastewater pollutants from the iron and steel industry is
cooling water. Enormous amounts of water are used in the
steel-making process to cool furnaces and finished products,
and to quench hot coke, slag, etc. Much of this is "once-
through" cooling water, although blowdown from recirculating
systems and barometric condenser water is also present.
Water used in "semi-wet" air pollution control systems
constitutes the second-most important source of wastewater
from the iron and steel industry. Other significant sources
of wastewater include excess ammonia liquor and light oil
recovery wastes from byproduct coke-making, and gas cleaning
water from blast furnace operation.
Pollutants covered by the effluent limitations guidelines
are cyanide, phenol, ammonia, oil and grease, suspended
solids, sulfide, fluoride, manganese, nitrate, zinc, lead,
3-229
-------
and pH. The guidelines apply to aqueous waste discharge
only, exclusive of non-contact cooling waters.
Control Technology and Costs. Treatment control practices
currently employed in the iron and steel industry may be
summarized as follows:
Source
Ammonia liquors
Quenching
Gas cleaning
Vacuum degassing
Continuous casting
Treatment Control Practices
Ammonia stripping, solvent recovery,
detarring
Settling followed by discharge or
recycle
Thickening, alkaline chlorination,
chemical coagulation, sometimes with
settling or filtration followed by
discharge or recycle
Evaporative cooling or cooling towers,
sometimes with settling or filtration
followed by recycle
Settling, filtration, evaporative
cooling followed by recycle
The treatment technologies called for by the effluent
limitations guidelines are summarized in Table 4-22-1.
The most recent analysis of costs for this sector was
provided to the Environmental Protection Agency by Temple,
Barker & Sloane, Inc.(TBS)1. This analysis was conducted in
somewhat greater depth than, and subsequent to the general
data gathering efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost
calculation procedure, and is considered to be more precise.
However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The TBS estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
3-230
-------
Incremental
Investment incremental O&M
1974-77 1,760 290
Phase I 250 30
Phase II 1,330 130
Storm Runoff 20
Other water 160 30
1978-83 1,820 2,610
Phase I 400 420
Phase II 850 1,270
Storm Runoff 130 100
Other Water 440 820
The earlier SEAS calculations are presented in Table 4-22-2,
with projected pollutant discharges associated with" these
costs. SEAS addresses only Phase I and Phase II costs. The
Phase I investment costs of both studies are within
approximately five percent of each other for 1974-1977, with
Phase I investment costs over 1978-1983 approximately ten
percent in difference. Phase II investment costs over 1978-
1983 are extremely close—within three percent. However,
the timing of the payments varies substantially between the
two studies for Phase II.
While the total investment expenditures of both studies are
remarkably similar for 1374-1983, significant differences
exist in assignment of these costs to meeting BPT or BAT
regulations. TBS states a BPT cost of $1,390 million, with
an additional cost of $150 million for changes in
construction, yielding a total estimate of $1,540 million
for Phase I and Phase II investment costs. SEAS lists $865
million plus 108 million for expansion costs during this
period for a total of $973 million. NO estimate for changes
in construction work is included in SEAS. Phase I cost
estimates of TBS for meeting BPT regulations are lower than
SEAS, whereas Phase II is substantially higher. This is
because TBS estimates are derived from the more stringent
guidelines issued by EPA in March 1976. SEAS Phase II cost
estimates were based upon an earlier guideline outlined by
EPA in August 1975. An additional source of variance in the
cost projections is that TBS bases their forecasts upon
projected 1983 production levels. SEAS uses estimates of
1972 production, and historical growth patterns of the
industry to forecast future production.
3-231
-------
"Economic Analysis of Proposed and Interim Final Effluent
Guidelines, Integrated Iron and Steel Industry", Temple,
Barker & Sloane, inc., March, 1976.
3-232
-------
Table 4-22-1.
Iron and Steel Control Technologies
Subcategory BPT
Byproduct Ammonia still operation
with lime operation.
dephenolizatibn, sedimen-
tation, neutralization.
BAT
NSPS
oo
Beehive coke
Sintering
Blast furnace (iron)
Blast furnace
(ferromanganese)
Basic-oxygen furnace
(semi-wet air pollution
control methods)
Basic-oxygen furnace
(wet air pollution control
methods)
Settling basin with
complete recycle and no
aqueous blowdown.
Thickener with chemical
flocculation, tight
recycle, surface skimming,
neutralIzation.
Thickening with blymer
addition, recycle using
cool ing tower.
Thickening with blymer
addition, scrubber water.
recycle with evaporative
cooling, pH adjustment.
Sett!ing tank with
chemical and/or magnetic
flocculation, complete
recycle and no aqueous
b1owdown.
Class if ier/thickener
with chemical and/or
magnetic flocculation,
tight recycle, neutrali-
zat ion.
BPT, less dephenolization Same as BAT.
plus sulfide oxidation,
clarification, multi-stage
biological oxidation with
methanol addition (or
alkaline ch1 orination and
carbon adsorption), and
pressure filtration.
Same as BPT.
BPT. plus lime preci-
pitation of fluorides.
BPT, plus alkaline
chlorination, press use
filtration, and carbon
adsorption, neutrali-
zation.
Same as above.
Same as BPT.
Blowdown treatment using
lime precipitation of
fluorides and sand filtra-
tion or improved settling
with coagulation.
Same as BPT.
Same as BAT.
Same as SAT.
Same as BAT,
Same as BPT.
Same as BAT,
-------
Table 4-22-1. (Continued)
Iron and Steel Control Technologies
I
N>
U>
if*
Subcategory
Open-hearth furnace
Electric-arc furnace
(semi-wet air pollution
control methods)
Electric-arc furnace
(wet air pollution control
methods)
Vacuum degassing
Continuous casting
BPT
Same as above.
Settling tank with
chemical and/or magnetic
flocculation with complete
recycle and no aqueous
blowdown, or controlled
wetting of gases to form
sludge only, no recycle
or blowdown.
Classifier/thickener with
chemical and/or magnetic
flocculation, tight
recycle, neutralization.
BAT
Same as above with
anaerobic denitri-
fication.
Same as BPT.
NSPS
Same as BAT
without
denitrification.
Same as BPT.
Settling via classifier,
tight recycle over a
cool ing tower.
Scale pit with dragout
conveyor, oil skimmer,
flatbed filtration.
recycle with cooling
tower.
Blowdown treatment using
lime precipitation of
fluorides and sand filtra-
tion or improved settling
with coagulation.
Blowdown treatment with
coagu1 at i on/c1ar1f i ca11on
and anaerobic denitrifi-
cation (or substitution
of another gas for nitro-
gen), neutralization.
BPT, plus
blowdown.
fi1tration or
Same as BAT
Same as BAT
wi thout
deni tnf ication.
Same as BAT.
Source: EPA Development Document, June 1974.
-------
Table 4-22-2.
Iron and Steel
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL 1977 1983 1985
Capacity:
Phase I (MT/Day) 178,597. 2O6.751. 197,989.
Phase II (kkg/Day) 1,156,790. 1,249,267. 1.2O5.6OO.
I Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 1.41%
N
J£ EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr) 1977 1983 1985
1971 Controls:
TSS 1,389.36 1,534.13 1,547.71
BOD5 (Beehive & Byproduct
Coking only) 26.42 28.46 28.61
Dissolved Solids 718.O9 821.41 839.86
Nutrients (Open Hearth Fur. only) .18 .10 .06
Bases (Beehive & Byproduct Coking,
and Iron Foundry only) 186.82 2O1.54 202.66
Oils and Greases (Except Iron
Foundry & Beehive Coking) 4O1.04 478.72 495.15
Legislated Controls:
TSS 418.98 57.64 12.23
BOD5_ (Beehive & Byproduct
Coking only) 1O.42 3.02 2.41
Dissolved Solids 152.22 2.56 2.26
Nutrients (Open Hearth Fur. only) .04 .02 .01
Bases (Beehive & Byproduct Coking,
and Iron Foundry only) 58.77 4,97 2,10
Oils and Greases (Except Iron
Foundry & Beehive Coking) 121.01 2O.19 3.34
-------
Table 4-22-2. (Continued)
Iron and Steel
Industry Data Summary
to
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase I
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Annual1zed Costs
Annual 1zed Capital1
O&M1
Qn-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges4
Totals
Grand Totals
1974-77
O.O
0.0
0.0
3O3.07
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
211 .
O.
25.
O.
237.
99
00
74
O
73
1977
31
.26
271 .82
0.0
271 .82
(BPT)
273.
O.
79.
O.
352.
.03
.00
.63
,O
67
1983
77
3O7
0
307
.62
.01
.0
.01
(BAT)
364.
0.
81.
O.
446.
.65
,OO
.99
.0
64
1985
77
423.
0
423
.35
.71
.O
.71
1976-85
534.
3, 143.
0.
3. 143.
. 13'
. 14
.0
. 14
O.O
O.O
0.0
384.63
0.0
0.0
0.0
501.05
0.0
O.O
O.O
3,677.27
' Annual 1 zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
-------
w
U>
Table 4-22-2. (Continued)
Iron and Steel
Industry Data Summary
' (3&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year Investments-
commencing 1n 1973, Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made m that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The iron and Steel (Phase I) Industry Includes byproduct coking; blast furnace production; electric
arc, open hearth, and basic oxygen furnace operations; and continuous casting processes.
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase II
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AnnualIzed Costs
Annuallzed Capital1
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
652.73
O.OO
82.36
0.0
735.09
1977
96.65
(BPT) 1,211.09
O.OO
29 1 . 4 1
O.O
1 . 5O2 . SO
COST IN YEAR
1983
294. 19
(BAT) 1,516,
O
3O4,
O.
1,821 .
1985
284.82
.49
.OO
.64
,0
13
1976-85
1 , 866 . 22 '
-------
Table 4-22-2. (Continued)
Iron and Steel
Industry Data Summary
O&M'
Qn-site Treatment 151.93 188.58 257.47 1,871.60
Pretreatment O.O O.O O.O O.O
Totals 151.93 188,58 257.47 1.871.6O
Municipal Charges
w
! Investment Recovery 0.0 0.0 O.O O.O
*> User Charges" 0.0 0.0 O.O O.O
oo Totals O.O O.O O.O O.O
Grand Totals 248.57 482.77 542.29 3,737.82
Phase II (Continued)
1 Annualized on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annualIzed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Iron and Steel (Phase II) industry includes cold rolling, hot forming, pipe and tubing
production, hot and cold coating process, and other chemical processing operations.
-------
BAUXITE REFINING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There are nine
domestic bauxite refineries owned by five primary aluminum
producers. Bauxite refining is carried on only by these
primary aluminum producers, ususally in very large-scale
installations.
Size range distribution and alumina production capacities of
the refineries are classified as: small (500,000 metric tons
per year), medium (501,000 - 1,000,000 metric tons per
year), and large (>1,000/000 metric tons per year).
The bauxite refining industry is a subcategory of the
aluminum segment of the nonferrous metals industry. Bauxite
is the principal ore of aluminum and the only one used
commercially in the united States. It consists of aluminum
oxide (hydrated) and contains various impurities, such as
iron oxide, aluminum silicate, titanium dioxide, quartz, and
compounds of phosphorous and vanadium. Two processes are
used in alumina refining: Bayer process and combination
process.
The Bayer process is classically used in the united States.
impure alumina in the bauxite is dissolved in a hot, strong
alkali solution (generally NaOH), to form sodium aluminate.
Upon dilution and cooling, the sodium aluminate hydrolyzes,
forming a precipitate of aluminum hydroxide which is
filtered and calcined (roasting or burning to bring about
physical or chemical changes) to alumina (pure).
The combination process is applied to high-silica bauxites.
It is similar to the Bayer process but includes an
additional extracting step. This is accomplished by mixing
the red mud residue from the prior step with limestone and
sodium carbonate, and then sintering this mixture at 1100°
to 1200°C. Silica is converted to calcium silicate and
residual alumina to sodium aluminate. The sintered products
are leached to produce additional sodium aluminate solution,
which is either filtered and added to the main stream for
precipitation or is precipitated separately. The residual
solids (brown mud) are slurried to a waste lake.
Higher taxes and levies on imported bauxite have increased
the interest in the possible use of alternative materials
located in the United States to produce alumina. Efforts to
use domestic sources of raw materials, such as clays,
alunite, and anorthosite, are increasing, and a U.S.
producer is now using a Soviet process termed successful in
refining alumina from alunite.
3-239
-------
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The primary waste from a
bauxite refinery is the gangue (worthless rock) from the
ore, known as red or brown mud, which is produced in large
quantities. From about one-third to one ton'of red mud will
be produced per ton of alumina. An increase of 2 to 2-1/2
ton. per'ton occurs from brown mud.
The principal water streams in a bauxite refinery are the.
following: red mud stream, spent liquor, condensates,
barometric condenser cooling water, and storm water runoff.
The major process waste is the mud residue. The Bayer
process produces a red mud while the combination process
treats this mud and forms a brown mud. However, these
differences do not alter the problem of disposal.
wastewater parameters used for determining effluent
guidelines include: alkalinity, pH, total dissolved solids,
total suspended solids, and sulfate. Mud residue resulting
from process operations is produced on a large scale (500 to
nearly 4,000 kkgs per day). Use of wastewater recycle
systems, along with complete waste retention, will eliminate
the discharge of all process wastewater pollutants to
receiving waters.
The guidelines for all three levels of control (BPT, BAT and
NSPSV are essentially no discharge of process wastewaters to
navigable waters. To allow for certain climatic conditions,
the guidelines permit a bauxite refining plant to discharge
an amount of water equal to the amount by which rainfall
exceeds the natural evaporation. This amount is applicable
to only that rainfall landing directly in impoundment areas,
such as active and dormant mud lakes and neutralization
lakes.
Control Technology and Costs. Since enormous aqueous waste
suspensions are generated in bauxite refining, no
practicable or currently available treatment or control
technology for these wastes exists, except for impoundment.
In all but two plants, a large diked area for impounding the
red mud has been made available. Wastes containing high
alkalinity or acidity can be neutralized, but this leads to
the creation of dissolved solids. Mud and other pollutants
from refining, however, can be impounded in a red mud lake
system. Cooling towers may be an alternative for the
cooling water supply for barometric condenser effluents.
Two plants are known to be currently operating with no
discharge of water. Four other plants have prepared or are
implementing plans to achieve no discharge of process waters
before the effective date of effluent limitations. Two
3-240
-------
plants are currently discharging all wastes, but are
implementing plans to impound red mud.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The bauxite G&P estimates are as
follows (in 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment 63.4
Incremental BPT O&M 6.7
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. G&P lists costs on a plant-by-plant basis,
whereas SEAS utilizes model plants with associated average
costs. This, combined with the capital in place assumptions
of the computer model, resulted in different cost estimates.
* Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, December 1975.
(Revised January 1976)
3-241
-------
Table 4-23-1.
Bauxite Refining
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (1.OOO MT/Yr) 7,276. 9,831
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 4.82%
1O.O41,
to
rf»
to
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO Metric Tons)
1971 Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
Legislated Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol ids
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1977
1983
1985
2, 182. 1O 2. 771. SO 2,923.85
88. SO 112.54 118.72
641.19 O O
26 . O3 O O
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83
34.86 (BPT) 0.0 (BAT)
O.OO O.OO
15.36 6O.71
O.O O.O
5O.22 6O.71
1976-85
15.85
O.OO
67 .98
O.O
83.83
-------
Table 4-23-1. (Continued)
Bauxite Refining
Industry Data Summary
w
to
»*»
u>
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annua1i zed Cap1ta1'
O&M1
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
6
51
O
51.
0.
O
0,
.60
.68
.O
68
.O
.O
.O
COST
IN YEAR
1983
14
71
0
71
O
O
0
.58
.55
.O
.55
.O
.O
.0
1985
14
72
O
72
O
O
O
.94
.77
.0
.77
.O
.O
.0
1976-85
114
636
O
636.
O.
0.
0.
.66*
.24
.O
.24
O
0
O
58.29
86. 13
87.71
75O.91
1 Annualized on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
' The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs in any year are relative- to Investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing In 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Bauxite Refining industry includes two alumina refining processes: Bayer and combination.
-------
PRIMARY ALUMINUM SMELTING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The primary
aluminum industry has three production stages: bauxite
mining, bauxite refining to produce alumina (aluminum
oxide), and the reduction of alumina to produce aluminum
metal; this last state is commonly Known as aluminum
smelting.
The reduction of alumina to produce aluminum metal is
carried out in electrolytic cells, or pots, that are
connected in series to form a potline. The facility
containing a number of potlines is referred to as the
potroom. The electrolysis takes place in a molten bath
composed principally of cryolite, which is a double fluoride
of sodium and aluminum; alumina is added to the bath
periodically. As electrolysis proceeds, aluminum is
deposited at the cathode, and oxygen is evolved at the
carbon anode. The oxygen reacts with the carbon to produce
a mixture of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide while the
anode is consumed.
Two methods of replacing the anodes are practiced- they are
referred to as the prebaked anode (intermittent replacement)
and the Soderberg anode (continuous replacement). For
either system, the anode preparation begins in the anode
paste plant, where petroleum coke and pitch are hot-blended.
For prebaked anodes, the anode paste is pressed in molds,
and the anodes are baked in the anode bake plant. The baked
anodes are used to replace consumed anodes, and the anode
butts are returned to the anode preparation area. In the
Soderberg anode system, the anode paste is not baked
initially, but is fed continuously in the form of briquette
through a shell into the pot. As the paste approaches the
hot bath, the paste is baked in place to form the anode.
Soderberg anodes are supported in the sleeves by vertical or
horizontal studs.
The continuous evolution of gaseous reaction products from
the aluminum reduction cell yields a large volume of fume
that requires ventilation systems to remove it from the
potroom. The ventilation air must be scrubbed to minimize
air pollution and both dry and wet scrubbing methods are
used for this purpose. Water from wet scrubbers, used for
air pollution control on potroom ventilation air, is the
major source of wastewater in the primary aluminum,industry.
The liquid aluminum produced is tapped periodically, and the
metal is cast in a separate cast-house facility. The molten
metal is degassed before casting by bubbling chlorine or a
mixed gas through the melt. The chlorine degassing
3-244
-------
procedure also produces a fume which must be scrubbed for
air pollution control.
A few aluminum smelters have metal fabrication facilities,
such as rod mills, rolling mills, etc., on the primary
reduction plant site. Since these metal fabrication
operations will be covered under separate effluent
limitations, they are not covered by the effluent
limitations derived for this report.
waste Sources and Pollutants. As mentioned previously, the
major source of wastewater in the primary aluminum smelting
industry is the water used in air pollution control
equipment (scrubbers) that are installed on potline and
potroom ventilation air systems. Scrubbers are also used on
anode bake furnace flue gas, and on cast-house gases, other
significant sources of wastewater include: cooling water
used in casting, rectifiers, and fabrication; boiler
blowdown; and storage area run-off, especially water
contaminated with fluoride from spent cathodes.
The following pollutant parameters have designated the
following significant pollutants from the primary aluminum
smelting industry for the purposes of establishing effluent
limitations guidelines: fluoride, total suspended solids,
and pH. Other wastewater pollutants identifiable with the
industry, but not considered significant, include: oil and
grease, cyanide, dissolved solids, chloride, sulfate,
chemical oxygen demand, temperature, and trace metals.
Control Technology and Costs. The existing technologies for
controlling wastewater volume in this industry include dry
fume scrubbing, and recycling of water to wet scrubbers
after precipitation by lime or alum, absorption of activated
alumina or hydroxylapatite, and reverse osmosis. Table 4-
24-1 summarizes the present and potential control and
treatment technologies for the primary aluminum smelting
industry, as forecast by SEAS.
3-245
-------
00
I
Wastewater Source
Pot (primary)
wet scrubber
Pot (primary)
wet scrubber
Pot (primary)
wet scrubber
Pot (primary)
wet scrubber
Potroom (secondary)
wet scrubber
Potroom (secondary)
wet scrubber
Cast house
wet scrubber
Anode bake plant
plant wet
Paste plant
wet scrubber
Cast house
cool ing
Rect ifier
cooli ng
Rainfal1 runoff
Table
Primary Aluminum Smelting
Present Practice
Discharge without
treatment
Discharge without
treatment
Lime and settle
once-through
Cryolite 'or line
pptn. with recycle
Discharge without
treatment
L1me and settle
once-through
Settle
Settle
Settle
Discharge without
treatment
Discharge without
treatment
Discharge without
treatment
4-24-1.
Industry Control Technology
Possible
Added Treatment
Possible
Added Control
Convert to dry
scrubbing
Install cryolite or Install lime treat-
line pptn. plus recycle ment of bleed stream
with bleed
Install recycle with
bleed
Instal1 cryolite
or line pptn. plus
recycle
Install recycle
Convert to alternate
degassing
Recycle
Recycle
Close loop
Convert to air-
cooled rectifiers
Route to cryolite
recovery and recycle
Install alumina
adsorption
Install lime treat-
ment of bleed stream
Install alumina
adsorption
Flocculate and
aerate
Cool1ng tower
Cool ing tower
Reproduced from EPA Development Document; March 1974.
-------
BPT includes the treatment of wet scrubber water and other
fluoride-containing effluents to precipitate the fluoride,
followed by settling of the precipitate and recycling of the
clarified liquor to the wet scrubbers. A holding pond or
lagoon might also be necessary to minimize the discharge of
suspended solids. Precipitation methods currently available
use cryolite and lime. Alternate control technologies,
which can be employed to achieve the required effluent
levels, include dry fume scrubbing, total impoundment, and
reuse of effluent water by a companion operation.
The application of the BPT described above results in a
relatively low-volume, high-concentration bleed stream from
the recycling system. BAT is lime or calcium chloride
precipitation treatment of the bleed stream to further
reduce the discharge of fluorides. Use of this technology
assumes the volume of fluoride-containing effluent is
reduced to approximately 5,000 liters per metric ton of
aluminum. Alternatively, volumes as high as 50,000 liters
per metric ton of aluminum may be possible if the effluent
is treated by absorption methods (activated alumina or
hydroxy1apat i te).
NSPS technology assumes the application of dry fume
scrubbing systems or, alternatively, wet scrubbing equipment
together with total impoundment or total recycling of the
scrubber water. The treatment for flouride and suspended
solids removal is essentially the same as for BPT above.
The NSPS require the restriction of the discharge volume to
835 liters per metric ton of aluminum with a final fluoride
concentration of 30 mg per liter; or an equivalent
combination of fluoride level and volume. Alternatives for
reducing water use and pollutant levels include air-cooled,
solid state rectifiers; molten metal degassing; and careful
cleaning of the anode butts before recycling.
Approximately one-third of the primary aluminum smelting
plants in the United States are currently operating with
discharge levels of pollutants within the July 1977
guidelines.
3-247
-------
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesKin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
incremental BPT investment $28.7
Incremental BPT O&M $ 7.0
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Several reasons for differences between these
cost estimates and the newer data exist. One major
discrepancy resulted from differences in the application of
engineering estimates. SEAS and the EPA Development
Document used exemplary plant data to derive average costs
per plants, while G&P used each plant as a model for its
size class. As a result, capital costs per ton of output
were 60 percent higher in the G&P study. Another difference
is due to estimates of "capital-in-place". G&P assumed that
70 percent was already installed as compared to a 30 percent
level assumed by SEAS. O&M costs vary considerable due to
the considerations affecting plant inventory and treatment
levels as well as differences in attribution of the O&M to
federal laws.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-248
-------
Table 4-24-2.
Primary Aluminum Smelting
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (MT/Day) 49,827 62,759.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.63%
64.615.
u*
vo
EFFLUENTS (1,OOO MT/Vr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
1977
23.60
21.35
1983
29.66
26.84
1985
•31 .20
28.23
Legislated Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol ids
6.85
7.61
1. 18
1 .62
46
.42
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77 1978-83 1976-85
39,13 (BPT) 24.35 (BAT) 43.92
o.oo -o.oo o.oo
0.0 0,0 o.o
O.O O.O O.O
39.13 24.35 43.92
-------
Table 4-24-2. (Continued)
Primary Aluminum Smelting
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975.$) - (Continued) COST IN YEAR
Annual1zed Costs 1977 1983 1985 1976-85
Annual 1 zed Capital' 5.14 8.35 8.35 65.9O'
O&M'
U> On-s1te Treatment 26.11 27.9O 32.53 285.14
• Pretreatment O.O 0.0 O.O 0.0
Ui Totals 26.11 27.9O 32.53 285.14
O
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery O.O O.O O.O O.O
User Charges' O.O O.O O.O O.O
Totals ' O.O O.O O.O O.O
Grand Totals 31.26 36.25 4O.88 351.O4
1 Annualized on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
! The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made In the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Primary Aluminum industry includes three major production stages: bauxite mining, bauxite
refining, and alumina reduction.
-------
SECONDARY ALUMINUM SMELTING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The secondary
aluminum industry comprises an estimated 54 firms with 58
plants. Other sources list the industry as having more
plants, but these numbers include sweaters, scrap dealers,
and non-integrated fabricators. For purposes of this
report, the number of plants reported excludes these
portions of the industry as they do not employ any. of the
processes included in the effluent limitations guidelines.
The secondary aluminum smelting industry is a subcategory of
the aluminum segment of the nonferrous metals manufacturing
category. This industry recovers, processes, and remelts
various grades of aluminum-bearing scrap to produce metallic
aluminum or an aluminum alloy as a product, which is used
primarily to supply the following industries: construction,
aircraft, automotive, electrical equipment, beverage cans,
and fabricated metal products, which include a wide variety
of home consumer products. The largest user of secondary
aluminum ingot is the automotive industry.
The estimated 1973 capacity was 966,572 metric tons. The
top four firms (Alcoa, Reynolds, Kaiser, and Ormet) account
for about 50 percent of the capacity.
Waste Sources and Pollutants, wastewaters are generated by
the following processes: (1) ingot cooling and shot
quenching, (2) scrubbing of furnace fumes during demagging,
and (3) wet milling of residues or residue fractions.
Secondary aluminum ingot is produced to specifications-
melting to specification is achieved mainly by segregating
the incoming scrap into alloy types. The magnesium content
can be removed with a chlorine-gas treatment in a
reverberating furnace.
The following are the primary wastewater pollutants
discharged by the above processes: oil and grease, suspended
and dissolved solids, and salts of aluminum and magnesium.
In metal cooling, molten metal in the furnace is usually
either cast into ingot or sow molds or is quenched into
shot. When cooling water is generated, ingot molds are
sprayed while on conveyor belts to solidify the aluminum and
allow its ejection from the mold. Shot is solidified by
having metal droplets fall into a water bath. The
wastewater generated is either vaporized, discharged to
municipal sewage or navigable waters, recycled for some
period and discharged (6-month intervals), continuously
recycled with no discharge, or discharged to holding ponds.
3-251
-------
Fume scrubbing results when aluminum scrap contains a higher
percentage of magnesium than is desired for the alloy
produced. Magnesium removal, or "demagging," is
accomplished by either passing chlorine through the melt
(chlorination) or with aluminum fluoride. While magnesium
is extracted, heavy fuming results from demagging, which
requires passing the fumes through a wet scrubbing system.
water used in scrubbing gains pollutants, primarily in the
scrubbing of chlorine demagging fumes.
Residue processing takes place in the industry since
residues are composed of 10 to 30 percent aluminum, with
attached aluminum oxide fluxing salts (mostly NaCl and KCl^,
dirt, and various other chlorides, fluorides, and oxides.
The metal is separated from the non-metals by milling and
screening, which is performed wet or dry. In wet milling,
the dust problem is minimized but the resulting waste stream
is similar to scrubber waters in make-up but more
concentrated in dissolved solids. Water is passed into a
settling pond before discharge.
The major wastewater parameters stem from two wastewater
streams: wet milling of residues and fume scrubbing. Wet
milling of residues include: total suspended solids,
fluorides, ammonia, aluminum, copper, COD, and pH. Fume
scrubbing includes: total suspended solids, COD, and pH.
Control Technology and costs. Approximately 10 percent of
the industry is currently discharging directly to navigable
waters. The majority of the industry discharges effluents
into municipal treatment works, usually with some treatment.
Currently, some plants are utilizing various control
alternatives for each of the three major wastewater sources.
The control technologies required to meet BPT and BAT are as
follows:
3-252
-------
BPT
• Metal Cooling. Air cooling or continuous recycling of
cooling water with periodic removal, dewatering, and
disposal of sludge.
• Fume Scrubbing. Chlorine fume scrubbing {for magnesium
removal using chlorine): pH adjustment and 'settling.
Fluoride fume scrubbing (for magnesium removal using
aluminum fluorides): pH adjustment, settling, and .total
recycling.
• Residue Milling. pH adjustment with settling and water
recycle.
BAT
• Metal Cooling. Air cooling, water cooling (for complete
evaporation) and total use and recycle of cooling water by
use of settling and sludge dewatering.
• Fume Scrubbing. Use of aluminum fluoride for magnesium
removal, and entrapment of fumes without major use of
water, using alternatives such as the Alcoa process,
Derham process or the Tesisorb process.
• Residue Milling. Dry milling, and a water recycle,
evaporation, and salt reclamation process.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses' using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $2.5
Incremental BPT O&M $0.6
3-253
-------
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below/ with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Several reasons for differences between these
cost estimates and the newer data exist. One major
discrepancy resulted from differences in the application of
engineering estimates. SEAS and the EPA Development
Document used exemplary plant data to derive average costs
per plants, while G&P used each plant as a model for its
size class. O&M costs vary considerable due to the
considerations affecting plant inventory and treatment
levels as well as differences in attribution of the O&M to
federal laws.
i Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research/ December/ 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
PRIMARY COPPER INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The primary
copper industry includes establishments primarily engaged in
smelting copper from ore and in refining copper by
electrolytic or other processes, operations involving the
mining of copper ore, as well as the rolling, drawing, and
extruding of copper, are not included in this industry
category. The basic process used by the primary copper
industry is pyrometallurgical. Copper concentrates are fed
to the primary smelter, which produces "blister copper"
after roasting, smelting, and converting. The blister
copper is then purified by fire-refining. If additional
purification is required, an electrolytic process is
employed, with the final product being cathode copper.
Byproducts, such as gold and silver which were contaminants
of the blister copper, are collected as "slimes" during
electrolytic refining and are subsequently recovered.
In the roasting operation, the copper concentrates are
subjected to controlled heat to burn away sulfur and other
impurities. The copper silicate thus produced is then
charged to a reverberatory or an electric furnace along with
scrap copper, recycled slab, and fluxing materials to
produce a copper-iron-sulfide material called matte. The
liquid matte is then converted to a relatively impure form
of copper called blister copper by an oxidation process
involving the blowing of thin streams of air through the
molten material.
3-254
-------
Table 4-25-1.
Secondary A1 urn1num Sme11 i ng
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (MT/Yr) 1.995.7OO. 2.85O.17O.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 5.8O%
3,056,733.
I
N>
tn
Ui
E- ;LUENTS (1,OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
COD
Dissolved Sol Ids
Bases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
COD
Dissolved So1Ids
Bases
1977
1983
1985
2.52
1 .02
t .37
19.26
2.02
.27
.66
5. 01
3
1
1
27
.60
.46
.96
.47
.67
O3
. 17
,52
3.94
1 .60
2. 15
3O.O9
O
O
0
O
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
14. 2O (BPT)
O.OO
6.55
0.0
20.76
34.14 (BAT)
O.OO
17.56
O.O
51.70
4O.OO
O.OO
23. 04
0.0
63. 04
-------
Table 4-25-1. (Continued)
Secondary Aluminum Smelting
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
COST IN YEAR
w
t
tn
Annualized Costs
Annuallzed Capital1
0&MJ
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
2.73
6.21
0.0
6.21
1983
9.53
8.55
0,0
8.55
1985
9.92
1O. 83
O.O
1O. 83
O.O
O.O
O.O
8.94
O.O
0.0
0.0
18.08
O.O
O.O
O.O
2O.75
1976-85
57.32'
78.58
O.O
78.58
O.O
O.O
O.O
135.90
1 Annuallzed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
! The decade total of annual 1 zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of .Investment expenditures over the decade.
5 O&M costs In any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing in 1973. Hence-, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made In that year.
4 User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent Is denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Secondary Aluminum Industry Includes Ingot and wet-milling processes.
-------
in the fire-refining process, air is introduced beneath the
molten copper in reverberatory or cylindrical furnaces.
Sulfur dioxide passes off as a gas, and metal oxides appear
in a slag which is skimmed off. The remaining metal is then
deoxidized by the addition of coke and by insertion of large
poles of green hardwood, which decompose into reducing
gases; alternatively, natural gases may be used to reduce
the cuprous oxide. Almost all fire-refined copper is cast
into anodes for electrolytic refining. In this process,
copper is. separated from impurities by electrolytic
dissolution at the anode and disposition of the pure metal
at the cathode; the electrolyte used is usually a dilute
solution of sulfuric acid and copper sulfate.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The primary copper industry
generates wastewater in the following processes or
operations:
1. Slag granulation, i.e. spraying molten slag with jets
of water to produce slag granules.
2. Slowdown from the sulfuric acid plants used to control
sulfur dioxide emissions.
3. Water used to cool fire-refined copper, anode copper,
shot copper, and various forms of cathode copper
casting.
4. Refining operations such as disposal of spent
electrolyte, electrolytic refinery washing, and slimes
recovery.
5. Miscellaneous operations such as blowdown from
scrubbing system, slurry overflow from dust collection
systems, plant washdown, and byproduct scrubbing.
6. Storm water run-off commingling with process
wastewaters.
Non-process water uses, such as non-contact cooling water
and water used in o.n-site power generation, are also
possible sources of wastewaters, but they are.not covered in
the effluent guidelines.
Wastewater constituents, which have been determined to be
present in the process wastewaters of the primary copper
industry in sufficient quantities to warrant their control
and treatment, are as follows: total suspended solids,
arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, selenium, zinc, oil and
grease, and pH. other pollutant parameters which may be
present include dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, other
3-257
-------
metals, cyanide, chemical oxygen demand, and temperature
(heat).
For the purpose of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the primary copper industry has been divided
into three subcategories:
1. Primary copper smelters including refineries located
on-site with smelters.
2. Primary copper refineries located in areas of net
evaporation.
3. Primary copper refineries located in areas of net
rainfall.
The effluent limitations for the first two subcategories for
BPT, BAT, and NSPS guidelines are essentially no discharge
of process water pollutants into navigable waters except:
1. A volume of wastewater equivalent to that which falls
within a properly-designed impoundment in excess of
that attributable to a 10-year, 24-hour rainfall event.
2. During any calendar month a volume of wastewater
equivalent to the difference between the precipitation
for that month which falls within the impoundment and
the evaporation for that month (or the difference
between the means of precipitation and evaporation
established for the area).
Control Technology and Costs. Most of the primary copper
industry employs judicious practices to control the volume
of wastewater discharged. Very little, if any, process
wastewaters are discharged at most operations. Primary
copper smelters, because of the integration of their
operations, have numerous possibilities for process
wastewater controls. Refineries with no on-site smelting
operations do not have available all of these possible
control approaches. The following list summarizes some of
the alternatives available for controlling wastewaters
discharged from the principal sources in the industry:
1. Slag granulation. Conversion to slag dumping; recycle
and/or reuse of wastewaters.
2. Acid plant blowdown. Reuse and minimization of
blowdown by reducing particulate load and heat.
3-258
-------
3. Contact cooling water. Minimizing "temperature" bleed
by providing sufficient cooling ponds or towers;
recycling and/or reuse; use of air cooling.
4. Refinery wastes. Converting from vacuum evaporators to
open evaporators; sale of spent electrocyle- recyle
and/or reuse of spent electrolyte, electrolytic
refining washing, and scrubber waters; reuse of
washdown waters; segregation and retention of storm
water runoff.
The treatment of wastewater streams prior to discharge in
the primary copper industry normally includes neutralization
and precipitation, additional chemical precipitation, and
oil and grease removal by skimming where necessary.
Advanced technologies with possible applications include
reverse osmosis, ion exchange, evaporation, carbon
adsorption, deep-well disposal, and fixation as a solid.
The control technologies recommended for primary copper
smelters and for primary copper refineries in areas of net
evaporation consist of the elimination of water discharge
through the use of recycling or reuse, and other
technologies, such as those listed above, and the use of
impoundment with disposal by solar evaporation.
Disposal sources, such as the reuse of process waters at on-
site mining, milling, and smelting operations are not
available to refineries not provided with smelters.
Consequently, control technology recommended for BPT
guidelines consists of reduction of process wastewater
volumes through recycling, reuse, etc., as discussed above,
plus the liming and settling of resultant effluents. To
meet BAT and NSPS guidelines, a continued reduction in the
volume of process waters is recommended.
Most of the facilities in the primary copper industry
currently discharge very little wastewater.
Annualized costs are summarized in Table 4-26-1. Although
this report does not include an industry summary for
Secondary Copper, Table 4-26-2 summarizes industry data,
including investment and control costs.
3-259
-------
Table 4-26-1.
Primary Copper
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (MT/Yr) 3,362,460. 4,140,470.
Annual Growth Rats Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.17%
4,186,710.
to
I
O\
O
EFFLUENTS (LOCO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
Oils and Greases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
011s and Greases
1977
1983
1985
4
1
1
.90
.40
.05
.24
.37
.02
6.O9
1.74
• 06
.01
.01
.OO4
6,34
1.81
.06
,OO3
.OO3
.OO1
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
2.69 (BPT)
O.OO
O.86
O.O
3.54
3.18 (BAT)
O.OO
3.S6
O.O
6.74
4. 17
O.OO
3.65
O.O
7.82
-------
Table 4-26-1. (Continued)
Primary Copper
Industry Data Summary
CO
to
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annual 1 zed Capital*
O&M3
On-s i te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
O.47
1 .95
O.O
1 .95
COST
IN YEAR
1983
1 ,
3.
O,
3.
.35
.20
.O
20
1985
1 ,
7.
0.
7.
,36
19
,0
, 19
1976-85
9
34.
0.
34.
.52
.94
,0
94
O.O
0.0
O.O
2.42
O.O
O.O
O.O
4.56
0.0
O.O
O.O
8.55
O.O
O.O
O.O
44.47
1 Annual1zed on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
' The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Primary Cooper industry Includes ore smelting processes and refining operations.
-------
Table 4-26-2.
Secondary Copper
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (MT/Yr) 1,224,260. 1,555,270.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 =3.68%
1,591,780.
w
I
to
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
D1sso1ved So11ds
011s & Greases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
Oils & Greases
1977
1983
1985
56.16
8. 2O
0.23
13.98
2.O4
0.06
69.69
10. 18
0.28
O.O
O.O
0.0
72.66
1Q.61
O.29
O.O
O.O
O.O
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pr^etreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
9.03 (BPT)
O.OO
0.9O
O.O
9.92
O.O (BAT)
O.OO
3.92
O.O
3.92
3.43
O.OO
4.O7
O.O
7.5O
-------
Table 4-26-2, (Continued)
Secondary Copper
Industry Data Summary
w
to
o>
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annual!zed Costs
AnnualIzed Capital'
O&M1
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
1 .30
€.82
O,O
6.82
O.O
O.O
O.O
COST IN YEAR
1983
1 .82
9.71
O.O
9.71
O.O
O.O
0.0
1985
1.84
9.81
O.O
9.81
O.O
O.O
O.O
1976-85
16. O61
87.86
O.O
87.86
O.O
O.O
O.O
8.12
11.53
11 .65
1O3.93
Annual 1zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are.computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made In the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent Is denoted under Investment recovery.
-------
PRIMARY LEAD INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The primary lead
industry includes establishments that are primarily engaged
in smelting lead from ore and in refining lead by any
process. Those establishments that are primarily engaged in
the mining or milling of ores, and in rolling, drawing, and
extruding lead are not Included in this industrial category.
primary lead in the United States is recovered entirely from
sulfide ores, which are associated with other minerals,
principally zinc,:copper, and silver. The sequence of lead
smelting and refining processes are: charge preparation
(blending of the concentrate with flux and a variety of
recycling products, including dust from collection systems,
fumes, etc.), pellitzing, sintering, blast furnace smelting,
and the subsequent refining operations to remove, and in
some cases recover, metallic impurities. In the sintering
process, the pellets of ore concentrate are burned to remove
sulfur and other impurities, and to produce ."sinter" of
suitable size and strength for subsequent treatment in the
blast furnace. By a combination of heat and reducing gases
in the blast furnace, the sinter, recycled slag, etc., are
separated into two constituent phases: molten metal and
slag. The metals that are easily reduced, such as lead,
copper, silver, gold, bismuth, antimony, and arsenic, become
part of the metal phase. -Refining operations include:
dressing, the cooling of the molten lead so that excess
copper floats to the surface- softening, either by air
oxidation or by slag oxidation to remove antimony; and fire
refining methods, where the molten lead is treated with zinc
or with calcium and magnesium to form gold, silver, and
bismuth compounds which float to-the surface.
The primary lead industry consists of five domestic lead
smelters and five refineries, three of which are located on-
site with smelters.
The major uses of lead in the United States are as follows:
batteries-36 percent, gasoline additives-19 percent, alloys
and miscellaneous-27 percent, pipe and sheet-4 percent,
pigments-9 percent, and cable-5 percent. Lead 'useage is
heavily dependent upon the automobile industry. At present,
the continued use of ackyl-lead compounds as gasoline
additives is in question; this market might eventually be
eliminated. Basically, lead has - no substitutes in its
numerous alloy, pipe, and sheet uses; its growth in- these
markets is closely tied to the .growth of the construction
industry.
3-264
-------
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The principal sources of
wastewaters from the primary lead industry are as follows:
• Slowdown from the sulfuric acid plants used to control
sulfur dioxide emissions from , sintering operations
(three plants).
• Streams from blast furnace slag, speiss, and/or dross
granulation. Molten slag, dross, etc., is granulated
by impacting the molten stream with a high-pressure
water jet. Usually the wastewater streams are
intermittent overflows or bleed streams from a
recirculating water system (five plants).
• wastewaters from wet scrubber equipment used in the
control of air pollution (four plants).
various applications of non-contact cooling water are also
found in primary' lead smelters, but these non-contact
streams are not covered by the effluent limitations
guidelines.
A broad range of pollutants are found in the wastewater
streams from primary lead smelters and refiners. The
following pollutants have been found to occur in sufficient
quantities to warrant their control and treatment; total
suspended solids, cadmium, mercury, lead, zinc, and pK.
Other pollutants that may be present include arsenic,
chemical oxygen demand, cyanide, oil and grease, temperature
(heat), dissolved chlorides, fluorides, phosphates,
carbonates, calcium, magnesium, bismuth, and other metals.
Control Technology and Costs. Wastewater pollution control
practices in the primary lead industry consist of in-process
controls designed to reduce the volume of wastewater
discharged and end-of-pipe systems to treat the wastewaters
before discharge. Control practices currently used in the
industry to reduce water discharges include: segregation of
waste streams, recycling slag granulation water, recycle and
reuse scrubber water, and good housekeeping provisions for
the control of leaks and spills, stormwater run-off, pond
failure, etc.- Wastewater treatment technology normally
involves lime precipitation of heavy metals. Additional
treatment methods which could be employed include: hydrogen
sulfide treatment to precipitate heavy metals, reverse
osmosis to remove ionic materials, and evaporation.
The effluent limitations guidelines for the primary lead
industry are based upon maximum use of water recycling and
reuse plus the treatment of discharged wastewaters by lime
neutralization and clarification.
3-265
-------
Five of the seven plants in the primary lead industry have
either already achieved no discharge of process wastewater
pollutants, or are very near and anticipate reaching this
goal. The two plants currently discharging process
wastewater are geographically located in areas of net
precipitation and operate metallurgical sulfuric acid
plants.
Annualized costs are detailed in Table 4-27-1.
3-266
-------
Table 4-27-1.
Primary Lead
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (MT/Yr) 1.653.O65. 2.O51.26O.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.44%
2,128,640.
Oi
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
Legislated Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol ids
1977
1983
1985
O.O2
O.O1
O.O1
O.O04
O.O3
O.O1
O.O1
O.OO3
O.O3
O.O1
O.O1
O.OO3
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
2.52 (BPT)
O.OO
0.15
0.0
2.67
O.O (BAT)
O.OO
1.95
0.0
1 .95
1. 16
O.OO
2,16
O.O
3.31
-------
Table 4-27-1. (Continued)
Primary Lead
Industry Data Summary
to
CT\
oo
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costa
Annuallzed Capital
O&M3
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges4
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
0 • 35
3.74
O.O
3.74
COST- IN YEAR
1983
O.61
4.68
0.0
4.68
1985
O.63
5.02
O.O
5. 02
1.976-85
4.98*
43.23
O.O
43.23
O.O
O.O
0.0
4.09
O-O
0.0
0.0
5.28
O.O
O.O
O.O
5.66
O.O
O.O
O.O
48.21
1 Annualized on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
2 The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Primary Lead industry includes ore smelting and refining processes.
-------
PRIMARY ZINC INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The primary zinc
industry consists of establishments that are primarily
engaged in smelting zinc from ore or in refining zinc by any
process. Establishments that are primarily engaged in the
mining of zinc ore, or the rolling, drawing, and extruding
of zinc are not included. The U.S. primary zinc industry
includes both electrolytic and pyrometallurgical retort
plants. Processes involved.in the smelting and refining, of
zinc include roasting, sintering, reduction, and refining.
in the roasting operation, the zinc concentrate is heated in
an oxidizing atmosphere to burn off sulfur, lead, and other
impurities. For pyrolytic or retort plants, roasting is
followed by sintering in which the roasting product,
calcine, is heated together with various residues and zinc
oxide materials to further reduce impurities and to produce
a more compact feed for the retort furnaces. In the
reduction process, heating of the sinter in a reducing
atmosphere removes most of the zinc oxide. Refining the
zinc includes processes that are designed to further purify
the zinc; for example, by reducing the temperature of the.
molten zinc so that iron and lead precipitate or by
distillation of the molten zinc.
For the electrolytic reduction of zinc, sintering is not
necessary. However, acid washing of the zinc concentrate is
necessary before roasting to remove magnesia. Before
reduction, the calcine from roasting is leached with the
spent sulfuric acid electrolyte to dissolve the zinc and to
precipitate impurities. The purified solution is then
introduced into electrolytic cells where zinc is deposited
from the solution onto aluminum cathodes- the zinc cathode
is then washed and sent to the casting plant.
The zinc industry is comprised of four electrolytic (one
recently converted) and three pyrometallurgical retort
plants. U.S. production of zinc has declined from 916,977
metric tons in 1967, to 562,340 metric tons in 1974. Half
of the 14 plants operating in 1969 have closed; however, one
plant in Illinois reopened in 1973 and additional p-lant
capacity is expected. The retort plant in Amarillo, Texas,
is scheduled to close, but two new plants have befeh
announced.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Two major sources of process
wastewaters have .been identified as common to all plants in
the primary zinc industry:
• Slowdown from the sulfuric acid plants used to control
emissions of sulfur dioxide from roasting operations-
3-269
-------
» Metal casting cooling water.
Other sources of wastewaters identified for some plants
include: scrubber water used to wash gases emitted from
pyrolytic reduction furnaces, spent liquor from cadmium
leaching, and scrubber water from dust control streams. The
industry also uses a great deal of non-contact cooling
water, but these wastewater streams are not covered by the
guidelines.
The wastewater parameters which have been determined for the
process wastewaters of the primary zinc industry and warrant
control and treatment are.- total suspended solids, arsenic,
cadmium, mercury, selenium, zinc, and pH. Other pollutant
parameters which also may be considered include: dissolved
solids, chemical oxygen demand, lead, nicKel, copper,
cyanide, and temperature (heat).
Control Technology and costs. The current treatment
practices applied to process wastewater streams in the
primary zinc industry include both settling and lime-and-
settle of either segregated unit process streams or total
plant effluents. control measures currently used include
recycling with bleed-off and reuse of wastewater.
Additional treatment methods that could be employed for
further reduction of pollutants include: hydrogen sulfide
treatment for further precipitation of heavy metals, reverse
osmosis to concentrate ionic materials, evaporation, and
chemical fixation,
BPT guidelines are: the minimization of discharge or process
wastewater recycling, reuse, or segregation- and chemical
treatment to achieve controlled precipitation, followed by
sedimentation (lime and settle). Specifically recommended
control measures include:
1. The minimization of acid plant blowdown by appropriate
proper operation of prescrubber gas and cleaning
facilities to minimize particulate loadings into the
wet scrubbers, cooling capacity and provisions for
settling in the scrubber liquor recycle circuit, and
possible reuse of the scrubber bleed stream in other
plant operations.
2. The minimization of metal casting cooling water
discharge by recycling, possibly including provisions
in the circuit for removal of suspended solids, oil and
grease, and thermal loads.
3. The exploitation of the evaporative capacity of hot
gases or hot metal for in-plarit disposal of wastewater.
3-270
-------
Technology recommended to meet BAT and NSPS is analogous to
the above technology, and includes control measures to
further minimize the volume of process wastewater streams by
additional recycling, reuse, segregation and the application
of chemical treatment to achieve controlled precipitation,
followed by sedimentation.
One plant in the primary zinc industry has already achieved
no discharge of wastewater pollutants and another is very
close to closure, of the remaining plants, four have lime
and settle treatment systems.
Annualized costs are summarized in Table 4-28-1.
3-271
-------
Table 4-28-1.
Primary Zinc
Industry Data Summary
ACT-IVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (MT/Yr) 1,731,999. 2,177,36a.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3.46%
2,239,200.
to
to
^j
to
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Solids
1977
0.74
1.15
1983
0.9O
1.4O
1985
O.95
1 .46
Legislated Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol ids
0.31
0.29
0.18
0.02
0. 16
O.O3
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
7.18 (BPT)
O.OO
0.64
O.O
7.82
9.38 (BAT)
O.OO
5. 19
O.O
14.57
12.27
O.OO
5.54
O.O
17.81
-------
Table 4-28-1. (Continued)
Primary Zinc
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annual 1zed Capital1
0&M"
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
1 .03
2.81
0.0
2.81
COST IN YEAR
1983
2.94,
4.57
0.0
4.57
1985
2.99
10. 48
O.O
10.48
1976-85
19.89'
49.48
0.0
49.48
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.84
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.52
O.O
O.O
O.O
13.47
O.O
O.O
O.O
69.37
Annual 1zed on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent interest with zero salvage value.
The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Primary 21nc industry includes ore smelting and refining processes.
-------
ASBESTOS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. There were 68
plants operating in the asbestos manufacturing industry in
1972. A majority of these asbestos plants incur wastewater.
during production.
with the exception of roofing and floor tile manufacturing,
there is a basic similarity in the manufacturing methods of
various asbestos products. The asbestos fibers and other
raw materials are slurried with water and then formed into
sheets. Save-alls (settling tanks} are used in all
processes. In roofing manufacture, asphalt or coal tar is
soaked into asbestos paper. in floor tile manufacture,
asbestos is added to the tiles for its special structural
and dimension-holding qualities.
Asbestos cement products are the largest overall user of
asbestos fibers, and cement pipe is the largest producer in
th'is category. Asbestos sheet is used for laboratory table
tops and other structural uses. Asbestos paper and
millboard have a great variety of uses, but it is
particularly used, for applications where direct contact with
high temperatures occur. Asbestos roofing and floor tiles
are essentially fabricated products that take advantage of
the unique qualities of asbestos.
A favorable trade balance may be projected for asbestos
products, regardless of any price effects resulting from the
effluent standards. However, there has been a recent trend
towards an increase in the value of imports, with an
increase from $8.8 million in 1969 to $11.3 million in 1972.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Asbestos manufacturing wastes
include: total suspended solids, BOD5, COD, pH {alkalinity},
high temperature, total dissolved solids, nitrogen,
phosphorous, phenols, toxic materials, oil and grease,
organic matter, nutrients, color, and turbidity.
The major source of industry wastewater is the machine that
converts slurry into the formed wet product. Water is used
as: an ingredient, a carrying medium, for cooling, and for
auxilliary uses such as pump seals, wet saws or for
pressure-testing the pipes. In most plants, wastewater is
combined and discharged into a single sewer. In all
subcategories, water is removed during various steps to the
save-all system (settling tank). Waste characteristics are
defined by the following parameters: total suspended solids
(TSS), COD, and pH.
3-274
-------
Municipal discharge by subcategories is as follows: pipe-21
percent, sheet-46 percent, paper-42 percent, millboard-57
percent, roofing-44 percent, and floor tiles-54 percenti
Total discharge by subcategories is: pipe-11 x 10'lpd,
sheet-7 x 10*lpd, paper-20 x 10*lpd,. millboard-5 x 10'lpd,
roofing-2.2 x 10«lpd, and floor-tile-7.4 x 10«lpd.
Control Technology and Costs, .waste treatment methods used
in the asbestos industry are summarized in Table 4-29-1.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $1.4
Incremental BPT O&M $0.2
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. Principal reasons for differences between
these cost estimates and the newer data are the levels of
discharge to municipal treatment systems. The sources using
municipal treatment incur a lower capital cost requirement
(municipal investment recovery) than do plants having on-
site treatment.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-275
-------
Table 4-29-1.
Asbestos Manufacturing industry
Haste Treatment Methods
Subcategories
Asbestos Cement
Pipe
BPT
BAT
NSPS
Asbestos Cement
Sheet
BPT
BAT
NSPS
Sedimentation &
Neutralization
x
x
Sedimenation &
Coagulation
Asbestos Paper
BPT
BAT
NSPS
complete
Recycle
x
X
Complete
Recycle
Millboard
BPT
BAT
NSPS
X
X
Sedimentation Complete Recycle
(Elastomeric binder) Starch binder)
X
X
X
Sedimentation S,
SKimming
Roofing
BPT
BAT
NSPS
Floor Tile
BPT
BAT
NSPS
Complete
Recycle
X
X
X
X
3-276
-------
Table 4-29-2.
Asbestos Manufacturing
Industry Data Summary
to
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity (MT/Day) Phase I
(Liters/Day) Phase II
EFFLUENTS (1,000 MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOOS
COD~
Dissolved Sol Ids
Bases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Dissolved Sol Ids
Bases
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase I
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1977
1983
1985
21,595
217,424
I 1976-1985 = 3.
1977
0.97
O.O9
O.OO1
13. 05
3.67
O.59
O.09
O.OO1
14.30
1 .01
1974-77
4.64
0.00
O.3O
0.0
4.94
26,956.
333, 81O.
18%
1983
1.22
0. 11
O.OO1
16.34
4.6O
O. 13
O.O3
0
4. 18
0
(BPT)
27 , 6O4
341 ,825
1985
1.28
O. 12
O.OO1
17.09
4.81
O
0
0
0
O
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
O.O8 (BAT)
O.OO
1.36
O.OO
1.44
1976-85
2.08
O.OO
1 .40
O.OO
3.48
-------
Table 4-29-2, (Continued)
Asbestos Manufacturing
Industry Data Summary
-4
00
CONTROL COSTS (M1U1on 1975 $) - (Continued)
Phase I (Continued)
Annual1zed Costs
Annualized Capital1
O&M1
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
COST IN YEAR
1977
O.65
2.47
O.O
2.47
0.0
O.O
0.0
1983
O.66
3.81
O.O
3.81
0,0
O.O
O.O
1985
O.68
6.92
0.0
6.92
0.0
0.0
O.O
1976-85
3.69
38.14
O.O
38.14
0.0
0.0
O.O
3. 12
4.47
7.6O
41 .65
1 Annual 1zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
' The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
' O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing In 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure In any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made 1n that year.
4 User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Asbestos Industry Includes the production of roofing and floor tile, sheet materials, and
cement products.
-------
u>
I
N>
^1
VO
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Phase II
Investment
Existing Plants
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
Anriuallzed Costs
Annual!zed Capital1
O&M'
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges'
Totals
Table 4-29-2. (Continued)
Asbestos Manufacturing
Industry Data Summary
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
O.26
O.OO
O.24
O.O
0.5O
1977
0.07
0.04
O.O
O.04
O.O
0.0
O.O
(BPT) O.08 (BAT)
O.OO
O.O2
O.O
O.1O
COST IN YEAR
1983
O.O8
O.O6
0.0
0.06
O.O
O.O
0.0
O.O8
O.OO
O.O2
O.O
O.1O
1985
O.08
O. 1O
O.O
O. 1O
0.0
0.0
0.0
1976-85
O.72'
O.6O
O.O
O.6O
O.O
O.O
O.O
Grand Totals
0.11
O. 13
O. 18
1 .33
-------
Table 4-29-2. (Continued)
Asbestos Manufacturing
Industry Data Summary
i
{£ Phase II (Continued)
O
Annual 1zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
The decade total of annualIzed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of. Investment expenditures over the decade.
O&M costs 1n any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship .to the
Investment made 1n that year.
User charges denote the 08>M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
-------
CEMENT INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The cement
industry is comprised of three subcategories, which operate
in two basic manufacturing processes, wet and dry, and
materials storage runoff:
• Wet process leaching plants. The kiln dust comes into
direct contact with water in the leaching process for
reuse and from the wet scrubbers that control stack
emission.
• Non-leaching plants. The contamination of water not
associated with the water usage.
• Pile materials. Kiln dust, clinker, coal or other
materials that are subject to rainfall runoff.
The raw materials for cement production include lime
(calcium oxide), silica, aluminum, iron, and gypsum. Lime,
the largest single ingredient, comes from cement rock,
oyster shell marl, or chalk.
The wet process grinds up the raw materials with water and
feeds them into the kiln as a slurry.
The dry process drys the raw materials, grinds and then
feeds them into the kiln in a dry state.
In each of these processes, there are three major steps:
grinding and blending, clinker production, and finish
grinding. Clinker is a material about the size of large
marbles that has been through the kiln but has not been
fine-ground into finished cement.
The cement industry numbered 170 establishments in 1971 with
the typical plant production estimated to be 520,000 kkg per
year.
In 1973, 80.5 million metric tons were produced. From 1967
to 1973, production increased at a compound annual average
r^ie of 5.3 percent, imports have risen to meet demand,
growing from 1.0 metric tons in 1967 to 6.1 million in 1973.
Exports have increased to 454,000 metric tons in 1974.
Prices have increased due to higher production costs and
pollution abatement costs. Fuel cost increases and the
paper bag shortage are expected to affect prices.
3-281
-------
Waste sources and pollutants. The main sources contributing
to the total waste load come from the following: in-plant
leakage, non-contact steam cooling water, process water,
kiln dust piles runoff water, housekeeping, and wet
scrubbers.
In order to define waste characteristics, the following
basic parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting
BPT and BAT: pH, total dissolved solids, total suspended
solids, alkalinity, potassium, sulfate, and temperature
(heat).
BPT for plants in the non-leaching subcategory has been
defined as no discharge of pollutants from manufacturing
except for high temperature where an increase of 3°C is
permitted.
For plants in the leaching subcategory, BPT is the same
except for the dust-contact streams where reduction of pH to
9.0 and suspended solids to 0.4 kgAkg of dust leached is
required. For plants subject to the provisions of the
Materials Storage Piles Runoff Subcategory, either the
runoff should be contained to prevent discharge or the
runoff should be treated to neutralize and reduce suspended
solids.
BAT for both leaching and non-leaching plants is defined as
no discharge of pollutants. For plants subject to the
provisions of the Materials Storage Piles Runoff
Subcategory, the definition of BPT is applied to BAT.
NSPS is the same as BPT except that no discharge is
permitted for plants with materials storage pile runoff.
Control Technology and Costs. The main control and
treatment methods for the cement industry involve recycle
and reuse of wastewater. The devices employed include
cooling towers or ponds, seizing ponds, containment ponds,
and clarifiers.
For leaching plants, additional controls are needed to
adequately control alkalinity, suspended solids, and
dissolved solids. Alkalinity is controlled by
neutralization, or carbonation; suspended solids by
clarification, sometimes with the addition of flocculating
agents. Although none of the leaching plants currently use
a treatment method to control dissolved solids, several
processes that might be employed include evaporation,
precipitation, ion exchange, reverse osmosis,
electrodialysis, and combinations of these.
3-282
-------
In-plant control methods include good maintenance and
operating procedures to minimize solid spillage and to
return dry dust to the process. Solids introduced into
storm water runoff can be minimized by paving areas for
vehicular traffic, providing good ground cover in other open
areas, and removing accumulations of dust from roofs and
buildings, and by building ditches and dikes to control
runoff from materials storage piles.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Incremental BPT Investment $39.1
Incremental BPT O&M $ 6.0
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. As can be noted, both estimates are within an
acceptable range of computational variance. Some minor
difference, however, may be attributed to model plant cost
assumptions.
1 Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-283
-------
Table 4-3O-1.
Cement
Industry Data Summary
t*>
I
00
ACTIVITY LEVEL
Capacity (MT/Day)
EFFLUENTS (1.0OO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
Bases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
Dissolved Sol Ids
Bases
1977
80,605.
1977
34.27
75.21
17.87
23.73
58.42
9.98
1983
98 . 3 1 3 .
1983
43. 15
94.72
22.50
5.71
14.95
2.06
1985
101,915.
1985
45.38
99.61
23.66
0
O
O
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
35.91 (BPT)
O.OO
5.37
0.0
41 .28
5.83 (BAT)
O.OO
12.27
0.0
18. 1O
21 .02
O.OO
16.08
O.O
37. 1O
-------
Table 4-3O-1. (Continued)
Cement
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued) COST IN YEAR
Annual1zed Costs 1977 1983 1985 1976-85
Annual1zed Capital' 5.43 7.81 8.O8 65.66'
O&M'
Y» On-slte Treatment 7.25 9.OS 1O.48 82.O1
jU Pretreatment O.O O.O O.O O.O
» Totals 7.25 9.05 10.48 82.01
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery O.O . O.O O.O O.O
User Charges' O.O O.O O.O O.O
Totals O.O O.O O.O O.O
Grand Totals 12.68 16.85 18.55 147.67
1 Annual 1zed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed oh the assumption of a 15 year useful life at 1O percent interest
with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annual1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because of the
timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
1 O&M costs in any year are relative to Investment made in the year plus all prior year investments commencing 1n 1973.
Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the Investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges.
The Investment component is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Cement industry includes the production of cement by the wet and dry or the materials storage
run-off process.
-------
INSULATION FIBERGLASS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics ana Capacities. The insulation
fiberglass industry has no subcategories. The raw materials
for fiberglass production are 55-73 percent silica and 27-45
percent fluxing oxides (e.g./ limestone and borates) to
manufacture the fiberglass filaments, and a phenolic resin
to bind the filaments together. Four basic types of glass
are used: low-alkali lime alumina borosilicate, soda-lime
borosilicate, lime-free borosilicate, and soda-lime.
The basic process for fiberglass manufacture is as follows:
the raw materials batch is melted to form a homogeneous
glass stream (there are two ways that the melting process
can be done: direct melting or marble process), then the
molten glass stream is fiberized to form a random mat of
fibers which are bonded together with a thermosetting
phenolic binder or glue. The glass is fiberized in two
ways: flame attenuation and rotary spinning. The trend in
the industry is toward more use of direct melting and the
rotary spinning fiber-forming process.
The primary domestic uses for insulation fiberglass are:
insulating material, noise insulation products, air filters,
and bulk wool products.
In 1972, there were 19 plants operated by three companies
involved in fiberglass production. The typical plant
produces 123,000 metric tons per year, and all plants
contribute to wastewater discharge.
In 1972, total fiberglass production amounted to 0.77
million metric ton. Of the $427 million in annual sales,
exports amounted to $8.4 million and imports were $0.7
million,- therefore, foreign trade is not a significant
portion of total consumption.
waste Sources and Pollutants. The main sources contributing
to total waste load are summarized in Table 4-31-1. in
order to define waste characteristics, the following
parameters were chosen to develop guidelines for meeting BPT
and BAT:
• Phenols
• BOD5
• COD~
• Total Suspended Solids (TSS)
• pH
3-286
-------
00
Table 4-31-1.
Insulation Fiberglass Industry Pollutant Sources
Oil & Specific
Waste Stream Phenols BODS COD DS SS Grease Amonla pH Color Turbidity Temp. Conductance
Air
Scrubb1ng
Boiler
B1owdown
Caustic
B1owdown
Chain
Spray
Gullet
Cool1ng
Fresh Water
Treatment
Hood Spray
Noncontact
Cool1ng Water
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
Source: EPA Development Pocument, January 1974.
-------
Control Technology and Costs. Because of the large volume
of process waters and the reaction of the chain wash water
to treatment and recycle, total recycling of wastewaters is
the most economical treatment alternative for the insulation
fiberglass industry. Sample recycling systems consist of
coarse filtration, followed by either fine filtration or
flocculation and settling.
A 'recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P}». This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The GfiP estimates are as -follows
(in million 1975 dollars)!
Incremental BPT Investment $15.0
incremental BPT O&M $ 2.6
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. As can be noted, both estimates are within an
acceptable range of computational variance.
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to industries
of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972",
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January, 1976)
3-288
-------
Table 4-31-2,
Insulation Fiberglass
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (Million kg/Yr) 912. 1,132.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 2.73%
136.
U>
N)
00
EFFLUENTS (LOCO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
Dissolved Sol ids
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BODS
COD
Dissolved Sol ids
1977
1983
1985
2.
2
11
9
O
O
3
2
.OS
.73
.60
.90
.58
.77
.27
.79
2.57
3.41
14.49
12.37
O
O
0
0
2.69
3.57
15. 16
12.94
O
O
O
0
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1.978-83
1976-85
16.14 (BPT)
O.OO
1 .92
0.0
18.06
11.49 (BAT)
O.OO
6.OO
0.0
17.49
18.63
O.OO
6.65
0.0
25.28
-------
Table 4-31-2. (Continued)
Insulation Fiberglass
Industry Data Summary
I
f>>
v>
O
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs
Annualized Capital'
O&M'
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Munclpal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
2
5
0
5
0
O.
0
.37
.90
.0
.90
.0
.O
-O
COST
IN YEAR
1983
4
8
0
8
O
0
0
.67
.66
.0
.66
.0
.0
.O
1985
4.
15
0.
15,
O,
0.
0
.70
.62
.O
.62
.O
,O
.O
1976-85
34.
?7.
O.
87.
0.
0.
0
86'
.38
O
38
.0
,O
.0
8.28
13.34
20.31
122.24
1 Annualized on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Insulation Fiberglass industry includes the production of insulating material, noise
insulation processes, and bulk wool products.
-------
FLAT GLASS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The flat glass
industry may be divided into six major subcategories based
on the processes employed. However, since the sheet and
rolled glass manufacturing industries do not contribute a
wastewater discharge, they will not be considered for the
purposes of this report. The major division in the industry
is between primary and automotive glass manufacturers and
the processes they use. Automotive glass manufacture is a
fabrication process using primary glass. The four industry
subcategories covered in this study are: plate and float—
primary glass production, and tempering and lamination—
automotive glass production.
There were 47 establishments in the flat glass industry in
1972. Of these, it is estimated that 34 have waste process
water. The plants that are contributing to effluent
discharge produced 7,400 metric tons per day of primary
glass and 172,700 square meters per day of automotive glass
in 1972.
Glass is produced by combining the following raw materials:
sand (silica), sodium carbonate, calcium carbonate,
magnesium carbonate, and cullet (waste glass of which 25
percent can be reused). The float glass process is the
major user of these materials.
In primary glass production, the following processes affect
wastewater discharge: (1) washing, (2) batching, and
(3) grinding and polishing. In the production of automotive
glass, the following processes affect wastewater discharge:
(1) seaming, (2) grinding, (3) drilling, (4) cooling, and
(5) washing.
The batching process in primary glass manufacturing brings
together the raw materials and mixes them to a homogeneous
consistency.
The grinding and polishing process is used for plate, float,
and tempered glass. This process uses either a single or
twin configuration. (The twin configuration grinds and
polishes simultaneously.) The grinding part of the process
uses a slurry of sand and water which is continuously being
blown down in order to be recycled and classified as a
progressively finer grinding medium is needed. The
polishing process uses a polishing surface of animal felt,
and a polishing medium of water and iron oxide or cerium
3-291
-------
oxide slurry. The glass is reduced 15 percent by the
combined grinding and polishing process.
The washing process is used for plate glass to remove the
slurry, and in float glas.s to. remove the protective
chemicals coated on the rollers- which prevents the glass
from getting marked.
The cooling process utilizes water for cooling in all the
melting tanks, the float tanks, and bathing tanks. Water
for cooling is also used on rollers for plate glass, to cool
the annealing lehr, bending the lehr and in the tempering
process.
The se.aming and drilling processes in automotive glass
manufacture are basic fabrication processes! that aid in
handling and meeting product specifications.
The tempering process includes heating and then rapidly
cooling the glass.
Primary glass is used for all architectural and building
requirements and is the basic component for fabricated flat
glass products. Automotive glass is used primarily for
windshields and safety glass.
In 1972, a total of 2,2,2. million square meters of primary
glass and 77 million square meters .of automotive glass was
produced. It is estimated that plants contributing
wastewater produced 7,400 metric -tons per day of primary
glass and 172,700 square meters per day of automotive glass,.
The number of flat glass plants has increased in recent
years but plate glass plants have decreased due to the
greater profitability of the float glass process- u. S. flat
glass exports are not significant. There has been a gradual
increase in the amounts of imports, with imports comprising
about 21 percent of total consumption. The demand for
tinted or colored glass for reflective architectural uses
and for tempered glass for safety applications in buildings
is expected to grow, it should be noted, however, that the
consumption of flat glass moves with the level of
residential construction and automobile manufacturing.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The major glass manufacturing
wastes include: sand, silt, clay,.grease, oil, tar, animal
and vegetable fats, fibers, sawdust, hair sewage materials,
phosphorus, alkaline flow (affecting pH) from plate glass
manufacturing and thermal pollution (4.7° c over ambient
temperature).
3-292
-------
The main sources contributing to the total waste load come
from the following processes in each segment of the
industry: Float—washing; Plate—batching, grinding and
polishing, and washing; Tempered—seaming, grinding
drilling, cooling and washing (wash-water is the major
source); and Laminated—cooling, seaming, and washing.
In order to define waste characteristics, the following
parameters were used to develop effluent guidelines for
meeting BPT and BAT: total suspended solids, oil, pH, and
total phosphorus.
Effluent limitations and standards of performance for new
sources are no discharge for the sheet plate glass
manufacturing subcategory and best available control
technology for the three remaining subcategories.
At the present time, the waste from about 70 percent of the
industry is discharged tb municipal sewage systems, and 20-
30 percent of the wet process flat glass manufacturers
discharge to municipal sewers. The typical discharge for
each segment is as follows: Float-138 liters per metric ton;
Plate-45,900 liters per metric ton- Tempered-49 liters per
square meter: and Laminated-175 liters per square meter.
Control Technology and costs. waste treatment practices
vary in each segment of the fla't glass industry. Some use a
lagoon system with a polyelectrolyte or partial recycling of
process water. Others use no treatment or have only
eliminated detergent in the -wash water, control methods
include: filtration, filtration and recycle, total ! recycle
with a reverse osmosis unit, coagulation sedimentation, a
two-stage lagoon with mixing fcanfc for proper
polyelectrolytic dispersion,- an oil absorbing diatomaceous
earth filter ^and sludge dewatering by centrifugation.
The guidelines for BPT call for control-and removal of total
suspended solids (TSS), oil,'pH, and total phosphorus. BPT
calls for"the following control methods for each seqment of
the industry:
• Plate. Two-stage lagoon with a mixing tank for proper
polyelectrolytic dispersion.
• Float. Cream separator type centrifuge for sludge
dewatering, and. elimination of detergent use.
• Tempered and Laminated. Coagulation/sedimentation.
3-293
-------
The BAT assesses the availability of in-process controls, as
well as calling for additional treatment techniques. The
following additional treatment methods for each segment of
the industry are:
• Plate. Add a return of filter backwash to lagoon systems.
• Float. Eliminate all detergent use and add oil absorptive
diatomaceous earth filtration.
• Tempered. Add oil absorptive diatomaceous earth filtration.
• Laminated. Recycle post-lamination washing and initial hot
water rinse, gravity separation of remaining rinse waters,
reduce detergent usage and add oil absorptive diatomaceous
earth filtration.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and Peskin (G&P)». This study was conducted
independently and 'subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
-------
Table 4-32-1,
Flat Glass
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (SQM/Day) 213,313. 279,930.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 4.14%
286,77O.
I
N>
to
ui
EFFLUENTS (1.0OO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5 (Flat Glass only)
COD
011s and Greases
'Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5 (Flat Glass only)
COD
011s and Greases
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1977
1983
•198S
1
o
34
34
O
O
5
5
.51
.72
.22
.08
.87
.40
.55
.55
1 .
O.
43.
43.
O.
0.
0.
O.
.94
.92
89
71
34
.46
.46
. 11
2.
0.
46.
45.
o.
O.
O.
0.
O3
97
1O
92
12
47
47
08
AGGREGATED OVER
1974-77
4.67
1 .50
O.O7
O.OO
6.24
(BPT)
1978-83
3.47
O.OO
O.58
O.OO
4.O5
(BAT)
1976-85
5.81
O.OO
O.63
O.OO
6.44
-------
Table 4-32-.1. (Continued)
Flat Glass
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annual Ized Costs.
Annual1zed Capital'
0&M]
On-slte Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
1977
O.75
O.36
O. 19
O.54
O.O
O.O
O.O
COST IN YEAR
1983
1 ,29
O.51
0'. 16
O.66
O.O
O.O
0.0
1985
1 .29
O.7O
0.13
O.84
O.O
O.O
O.O
1976-85
9.89'
4.79
1 .71
6. SO
0.0
O.O
0.0
1 .30
1 .95
2. 13
16.39
1 AnnualIzed on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 10 percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annual 1zed cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in.any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year investments
commencing In 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Flat Glass industry includes tempered and laminated processing.
-------
PRESSED AND BLOWN GLASS INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The effluent
limitations guidelines for the pressed and blown glass
manufacturing industry cover manufacturers of glass
containers for commercial packing, bottling, home canning,
and the manufacturers of glass and glassware, which is
pressed, blown, or shaped from glass produced in the same
establishment.
The industry has been divided into the following
subcategories, based upon differences in production
processes and wastewater characteristics:
• Glass containers
* Machine-pressed and blown glass
• Glass tubing
• Television picture tube envelopes
• Incandescent lamp envelopes-forming and frosting
• Hand-pressed and blown glass-leaded and hydrofluroic
acid finishing, non-leaded and hydrofluoric acid
finishing, and non-hydrofluoric acid finishing.
Four manufacturing steps are common to the entire pressed
and blown glass industry: weighing and mixing of raw
materials, melting of raw materials, forming of molten
glass, and annealing of formed glass products. Further
processing (finishing) is required for some products,
especially television tube envelopes, incandescent lamp
envelopes, and hand-pressed and blown glass.
Sand (silica) is the major ingredient of glass and accounts
for about 70 percent of the raw materials batch. Other
ingredients may include soda or soda ash (13-16 percent),
potash, lime, lead oxide, boric oxide, alumina, magnesia,
and iron or other coloring agents. The usual batch also
contains between 10 and 50 percent waste glass (cullet).
Melting is done in three types of units: continuous
furnaces, clay pots, or day tanks. Methods used to form
glass include blowing, pressing, drawing, and casting.
After the glass is formed, annealing is required to relieve
strains that might weaken the glass or cause it to fail.
The entire piece of glass is brought to a uniform
temperature that is high enough to permit the release of
3-297
-------
internal stresses, and then it is cooled at a uniform rate
to prevent new strains from developing; finishing steps
include abrasive polishing, acid polishing, spraying with
frosting solutions, grinding, cutting, acid etching, and
glazing.
In 1972, approximately 300 plants manufactured pressed and
blown glass products -in the United States, and! almost half-
of these manufactured glass containers. The glass container
industry is relatively concentrated with the eight largest
firms producing about 80 percent of the industry's shipments
and operating about two-thirds of the individual plants.
Because of the special nature 'of their products, the
machine-pressed and blown glass industry is also relatively
concentrated; as are the tubing, television picture tube
envelope, and incandescent lamp envelope industries. On the
other hand, the hand-pressed and blown glass industry is
characterized by a large number of family-owned and-
operated, single-plant companies. Of the 46 firms in this
industry, only four operate more than one plant.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. Water is used in the pressed
and blown glass manufacturing industry for non-contact
cooling, cullet quenching, and product rinsing following the
various finishing operations. Water may also be added to
the raw materials batches for dust suppression, wet fume
scrubbers used in acid polishing areas also contribute
wastewater discharge.
For the purposes of establishing effluent limitations
guidelines, the following pollution parameters have been
designated as significant: fluoride, ammonia, lead, oil,
chemical oxygen demand(COD), suspended solids(SS), dissolved
solids, temperature(heat>, and pH. These parameters are not
present in the wastewater from every subcategory, and may be
more significant in one subeategory than in another.
Wastewaters from non-contact cooling, boilers, and water
treatment are not considered process wastewaters and are not
covered by the guidelines.
Control Technology and Costs. The pressed and blown glass
industry is currently treating its wastewaters to reduce or
eliminate most of the pollutants. Oil is reduced by using
gravity separators. Treating for fluoride and lead involves
adding lime, rapid mixing, flocculation, and sedimentation
of the resulting reaction products. Several glass container
plants recycle non-contact cooling and cullet quench water.
Treatment for ammonia removal is presently not practiced in
the industry.
3-298
-------
Additional treatment systems that are applicable to the
industry include chemical or physical methods to further
reduce oil levels, such as high-rate filtration,
diatomaceous earth filtration, and chemical addition or
coagulation; additional treatment of fluorides by ion-
exchange or activated alumina filtration- and ammonia
removal by stream or air stripping, selective ion exchange,
nitrification/denitrification, or break-point chlorination.
Because current treatment practices in the pressed and blown
glass industry provide wastewater pollutant concentrations
that are already at low levels, no additional control
technologies are proposed for most subcategories to meet BPT
guidelines. The major exception is the addition of steam
stripping to control ammonia discharges from the
incandescent lamp envelope manufacturing subcategory.
Additional technologies required for BAT and NSPS guidelines
include segregation of non-contact cooling water from the
cullet quench water, recycling cullet quench water,
treatment of cullet quench water blowdown by dissolved air
flotation and diatomaceous earth filtration, and treatment
of finishing wastewaters by sand filtration and activated
alumina filtration.
Table 4-33-1 summarizes the control technologies recommended
for each subcategory; as indicated, most of the plants in
the pressed and blown glass industry already have sufficient
operating technology to meet BPT guidelines, in addition,
as shown in Table 4-33-1, only about one-third of the
approximately 300 plants covered by these guidelines
discharge to surface waters. The remaining plants either
have no discharge or, as in most cases, they discharge to
municipal systems.
All annualized costs are detailed in Table 4-33-2.
3-299
-------
Table 4-33-1.
Pressed and Blown Glass
industry Pollution Control Technologies
Subcategories
Glass Containers
Machine-pressed &
blown glass
Glass tubing
TV tube envelopes
Incandescent lamp
envelopes
Hand-pressed &
blown glass
BPT
Housekeeping
Housekeeping
Housekeeping
Lime addition,
coagulation,
and sedimen-
tation
BAT
Recycle, gravity oil
separation and
filtration
Recycle, gravity oil
separation and
filtration
Cooling tower and
filtration
Sand filtration,
activated alumina
filtration
Steam stripping, Sand filtration,
lime precipi- activated alumina
tation and re- filtration
carbonization
Batch lime pre-
cipitation,
coagulation,
sedimentation
Sand filtration,
activated alumina
filtration
NSPS are the same as BAT for all subcategories.
3-300
-------
w
I
w
o
Table 4-33-2.
Pressed & Blown Glass
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
Capacity (kkg/Day) 75,644. 109,240.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 6.14%
EFFLUENTS (1,OOOMT/Yr) 1977 1983
Note: Residual data not available at time of Report Issue.
1971 Controls:
1985
116,17O.
1985
Legislated Controls:
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-s1te Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
4.70 (BPT)
O.OO
2.26
8.69
15.66
44.32 (BAT)
0.00
20.74
1O8 . 59
173.65
46.58-
O.OO
24. 1O
157. 9O
228.59
-------
Table 4-33-2. (Continued)
Pressed & Blown Glass
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
AnnualIzed Costs 1977
I
w
O
Annualized Capital1
O&M'
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
Totals
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery
User Charges*
Totals
Grand Totals
O.92
0.60
O.O
O.6O
4.72
10.62
15.34
16.86
COST IN YEAR
1983
9.47
1.73
O.O
1.73
20.61
22.55
43. 16
54.36
1985
9.84
6.22
0.0
6.22
21 .09
23.73
44.82
6O.88
1976-85
53.12'
20.71
O.O
20.71
157.9O
256.84
414.74
488.57
1 AnnualIzed on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annualIzed cost may not'be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
' O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year investments.
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made In that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Pressed and Blown Glass industry includes the production of T/V tubes, tubing, containers,
incadescent bulbs, machine-pressed processing, and hand-pressed processing.
-------
ELECTROPLATING
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The
electroplating industry is a subcategory of the metal
finishing industry and includes establishments engaged in
applying metallic coatings on surfaces by electrode
position. These coatings provide corrosion protection, wear
or erosion resistance, antifrictional characteristics,
lubricity, electrical conductivity, heat and light
reflectivity, or other special surface characteristics.
This analysis covers the Phase I guidelines for the
electroplating of copper, nickel, chromium, and zinc on
ferrous, nonferrous, and plastic materials. Phase II
regulations, which cover the additional metal-finishing
operations of anodizing, buffing, and polishing, were
promulgated too late for inclusion in this report.
An electroplating process involves cleaning, electroplating,
rinsing, and drying. The cleaning operation comprises two
or more steps, usually sequential treatments in an alkaline
solution and an acid solution, to remove grease, oil, soil,
and oxide films from the basic metal surfaces to insure good
adhesion. In the electroplating operation, metal ions in
either acid, alkaline, or neutral solutions are reduced on
the work pieces being plated, which serve as cathodes.
Hundreds of different electroplating solutions have been
adopted commercially, but only two or three types are
utilized widely for a single metal or alloy. For example,
cyanide solutions are popular for copper, zinc, and cadmium.
Acid sulfate solutions and non-cyanide alkaline solutions
containing pyrophosphate -or another chelating agent are also
used. The parts to be plated are usually immersed in the
electroplating solutions upon racks, although small parts
are allowed to tumble freely in open barrels.
Mechanized systems have been developed for transferring both
barrels and racks from cleaning, plating, and rinsing tanks.
In some instances, dwell time and transfer periods are
programmed on magnetic tape or cards for complete
automation.
Approximately 20,000 companies are engaged in metal
finishing activities. In over 85 percent of these
companies, metal finishing is merely one step in a
manufacturing process. Because these "captive shop"
operations are not classified, it is extremely difficult to
obtain good information on most of the U.S. metal platers.
3-303
-------
Hence, this analysis addresses only independent (non-
captive) electroplating facilities.
Electroplating facilities vary greatly in size and
character. Over 70 percent of the shops have fewer than 20
employees, while the largest shops have more than 150
employees. The area of the products being electroplated
varies from less than 10 to more than 1,000 square meters
per day. Products being plated vary in weight from less
than 30 grams to more than 9,000 kilograms. Most of the
plants perform specialized batch operations, but in some
plant operations, continuous strip and wire are plated on a
24-hour per day basis. Some companies have capabilities for
electroplating 10 or 12 different metals and alloys; others
specialize in just one or two.
waste Sources and Pollutants. Water is used in
electroplating operations to accomplish the following tasks:
• Rinsing of parts, racks, and equipment
• Washing equipment and washing away spills
* Washing the air in ventilation ducts
• Dumps of operating solutions
• Cooling water to cool solutions
-------
demand, biochemical oxygen demand, oil and grease,
turbidity, color and temperature.
Control Technology and Costs. Pollution control and
wastewater treatment technologies for reducing the discharge
of pollutants from copper, nickel, chromium, and zinc
electroplating processes include both in-plant controls and
end-of-process treatment system. The most commonly-used
treatment in the electroplating industry is the chemical
method. The rinse waters are usually segregated into these
three streams prior to treatment:
• Those containing hexavalent chromium,
• Those containing cyanide, and
• The remainder containing water from acid dips, ackali
cleaners, acid copper, nickel, and zinc baths, etc.
The cyanide is oxidized by chlorine, and the hexavalent
chromium is reduced to trivalent chromium with sulfur
dioxide or other reducing agents. The three streams are
then combined, and the metal hydroxides are precipitated by
adjusting the pH through chemical addition. The hydroxides
are allowed to settle out, often with the help of
coagulating agents, and the sludge is hauled to a lagoon or
filtered and used as land fill. These chemical facilities
may be engineered for batch or continuous operations.
Water conservation can be accomplished by: in-plant process
modifications and materials substitutions requiring little
capital or new equipment (substituting low concentration
electroplating solutions for high concentration baths or the
use of noncyanide solutions); good housekeeping practices;
reducing the amount of rinse water lost when parts are
removed from the solution; and reducing the volume of rinse
water used by installing counterflow rinses, adding wetting
agents, and installing air or ultrasonic agitation.
Significant amounts of water can also be conserved by using
advanced treatment methods, such as ion exchange,
evaporative recovery, or reverse osmosis to treat and
recycle in-process waters. Other more experimental in-
process treatment methods include freezing, electrodialysis,
ion-flotation, and electrolytic stripping. One system
currently in operation has achieved zero discharge of
pollutants through the use of reverse osmosis followed by
evaporation and distillation of the concentrated waste
stream from the reverse osmosis unit.
BPT for the electroplating industry is based upon the use of
chemical methods of treatment of the wastewater at the end
3-305
-------
of the process controls to conserve rinse water and reduce
the amount of treated water discharged. NSPS are based upon
the above technology plus the utilization of the best multi-
tank rinsing practices after each process.• Maximum use of
combinations of evaporative, reverse osmosis, and ion
exchange systems for in-process control are also
recommended. BAT is the use of in-process and end-of-
process control and treatment to achieve no discharge of
pollutants.
An informal survey suggests that substantial amounts of
waste treatment equipment are currently installed in metal
finishing plants. These data indicate that most
electroplating establishments have at least some of the BPT
equipment already in place. Some of this will have to be
upgraded to satisfy BPT requirements, but a total investment
in new technology will not be necessary. In addition, the
majority of electroplaters discharge their wastewaters to
municipal sewage systems.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesKin (G&P)1. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The G&P estimates are as follows
(in million 1975 dollars):
Total Phase I Phase II
Incremental BPT Investment 1,994.1 1,794.1 200.
Direct Discharging 516.6 470.6 46.1
Pretreating 1,447.5 1,323.5 154.0
Incremental BPT O&M 856.5 816.3 40.3
Direct Discharging 223.6 215.2 8.4
Pretreating 633.0 601.1 31.9
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculation are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. SEAS addressed only those costs associated
with Phase I production.. As noted in the industry
description, SEAS addresses only independent electroplating
facilities, and does not calculate costs for captive shops,
as does G&P. Growth rate assumptions also affect the
forecasts.
3-306
-------
Gianessi, L. P. and H. M. Pesfcin, "The Cost to Industries
of the water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, December 1975.
(Revised January 1976)
3-307
-------
Table 4-34-1.
Electroplating
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
O
09
Capacity (MT/Yr) 365,491 481,173.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 3,78%
EFFLUENTS (1.OOO MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
Dissolved Sol Ids
Nutrients
Acids
Legislated Controls:
Dissolved Sol ids
Nutrients
Acids
1977
1983
506,233.
1985
155.84
3. 19
16.52
107.53
1.O1
4.79
207
4
21
25
0
O
.25
.24
.97
.20
.04
.06
22O. 13
4.50
23.33
O
0
O
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
1
359.
381.
816.
53.
,61 1 .
87 (BPT)
23
25
79
15
1
1
2
,O18
0
,367
4O7.
.792
.22 (BAT)
.00
. 16
. 16
.54
1
1
3
, 189
O
,676,
60O
,466
. 18
.00
.96
.06
.20
-------
Table 4-34-1. (Continued)
Electroplating
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued) COST IN YEAR
Annual 1zed Costs 1977 1983 1985 1976-85
-Annual 1zed Capital' 186.77 50O.39 530.5O 3,612.56*
O&M'
On-s1te Treatment 27.9O 72.45 295.67 946.31
Pretreatment 115.22 271.93 362.71 2,119.82
w Totals 143.12 344.39 658.38 3.O66.13
•O Municipal Charges
vo
Investment Recovery 23.53 75.63 76.97 6OO.O6
User Charges' 37.99 63.68 64.99 798.81
Totals 61.52 139.31. 141.96 1,398.88
Grand Totals 391.42 984.09 1,330.84 8.O77.57
' Annual 1zed on-slte and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of Investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs 1n any year are relative to Investment made 1n the year plus all prior year Investments
commencing 1n 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure 1n any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made 1n that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The Investment com-
ponent 1s denoted under Investment recovery.
Note: The Electroplating Industry includes job shop operations that apply metallic coatings
to material surfaces.
-------
STEAM ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. The electric
utility industry is composed of three types of companies:
those owned by investors, those owned by the public
(Federal, state or local governments), and those owned by
cooperatives. Companies owned by the public or by
cooperatives are engaged primarily in the distribution of
electricity; companies owned by investors are engaged in
generation, transmission, and distribution.
The 500 investor-owned companies serve fewer separate
electrical systems than cooperatives or publically-owned
companies, but they account for most of the generating
capacity and generate most of the electricity. In 1973,
investor-owned companies had 78 percent of the generating
capacity; publically-owned companies had 20 percent, and
cooperatives had 2 percent.
The steam electric power industry has been divided into
three sub-categories according to size and age of generating
plants, and a fourth based on area; a summary of the
subcategories follows:
Generation Capacity
Subcategory (megawatts) Date Initial Operation*
Generating Unit > 25 After 1/1/74
>500 After 1/1/70
Small Unit < 25
Old unit >500 On or before 1/1/70
<500 on or before 1/1/74
Area Runoff All Sizes
*Final effluent guidelines were issued on October 8, 1974
in the Federal Register (39FR36186). These guidelines
exempt all units placed into service before 1970 from
meeting limitations on the discharge of heat.
The generating capacity of the industry may be further
classified by the type of fuel employed to drive the
generator. As shown in Table 4-35-1, coal is the
predominant fuel used. In recent years, there has been a
3-310
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shift from coal to oil, principally because state and local
environmental restrictions required the use of low sulfur
fuels, a requirement more easily met by oil then coal. More
recently, the increasing prices of foreign crude oil have
caused a reversal of this trend as utilities return to lower
priced coal as their fuel.
Waste Sources and Pollutants. The major waste product from
electric power generation is heat. Depending on the type of
fuel consumed, substantial quantities of metal cleaning
wastes, water treatment wastes, miscellaneous housekeeping
wastes, bottom ash and fly ash may also be produced. Waste
cooling water may contain corrosion inhibitors and biocides,
principally chlorine.
The main sources contributing to the total waste load come
from both power generation and housekeeping: cooling water
and cooling water blowdown, boiler blowdown, metal cleaning
wastes, ash transport water, low volume wastes, and
construction and storage runoff.
In order to define waste characteristics, the following
parameters were used to develop guidelines for meeting BPT
and BAT: (1) total suspended solids, (2) oil and grease,
(3) free available chlorine, (4) total copper, (5) total
iron, (6) zinc, (7) chromium, (8) phosphorous, (9) other
corrosion inhibitors, (10) polychlorobiphenyls (PCB),
(11) pH, and (12) heat.
Specific waste loads have not been characterized, but they
may be expected to vary with the type of fuel:
• Coal burning plants produce the heaviest burden of
wastes because of the large amounts of fly ash and
bottom ash produced. Pollutants are caused by runoff
from coal storage areas, boiler blowdown, metal
cleaning wastes, once-through cooling water or cooling
water blowdown, and low volume wastes, including wet
scrubber wastes, water treatment wastes, laboratory and
sampling wastes, and housekeeping wastes, such as pump
seal oil.
* Oil burning plants generate no bottom ash and much less
fly ash than coal burning plants. Otherwise, the
wastes are about the same except that there are
substantial quantities of oily water from oil use and
storage, but no runoff from coal storage.
• Gas burning plants produce almost no ash and require no
air pollution equipment for control of particulates and
sulfur dioxide. Otherwise, the wastes are the same as
for coal and oil except that there is no waste stream
3-311
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Table 4-35-1.
Steam Electric Power Industry Structure
w
i> Size
£J (megawatt)
< 25
25-500
> 500
Totals
Coal
No. Total
Plants Cap. (%)
213
537
173
923
14.
11.
37.
62.
0
0
5
5
NO.
Plants
6O
151
49
26O
Oil
Total
Cap. (%)
5
4
11
2O
.0
.0
.2
.2
No.
Plants
115
1O1
2
218
Gas
Total
Cap. (%)
8.
O.
7.
15.
0
1
1
2
Nuclear
No. Total
Plants Cap. (%)
3
15
15
33
O
1 .
1
2
.2
.O
. 1
.3
Total
No. Total
Plants Cap. (
391
8O4
239
1434
27.2
16. 1
56.9
1O0.21
'Percentages do not add to 1OO because of rounding.
Source: EPA Development Document.
-------
associated with fuel storage/ and none associated with
maintenance cleaning of the stack.
• Nuclear plants produce no ash or fuel storage waste
streams, and metal cleaning wastes are limited to the
cooling tower basin and generator tubes. Otherwise,
the wastewaters are similar to those of fossil fuel
plants. Radioactive wastes are not covered in effluent
guidelines.
Control Technology and costs. wastewater treatment
generally has not been practiced in the steam electric power
industry; however, based on assumptions concerning the
nature of the wastestreams, the treatment technology is
readily projected.
* Cooling Water, where unlimited discharge of heated
water is permitted, there is no requirement for
treatment. Where recirculating cooling water systems
are in use, it will be necessary to remove corrosion
inhibitors from the blowclown to meet 1983 criteria.
This can be achieved by treatment with sulfur dioxide
to reduce hexavalent chromium followed by chemical
precipitation of heavy metals and phosphate, and
filtration. Since new source- performance standards
permit no discharge of corrosion inhibitors, it will be
necessary to construct cooling facilities of corrosion-
inhibiting materials.
• Metal Cleaning Wastes and Boiler Slowdown. Metal
cleaning wastes are generated on an intermittent basis.
treatment of this stream, as well as the boiler
blowdown stream, can be achieved by equalization,
chemical precipitation of heavy metals, and filtration.
Where chemical treatment of cooling waters blowdown is
necessary, these streams can be combined for treatment.
• Ash Transport Water and Low Volume Wastes. The
blowdown from recirculating ash transport water can be
treated to meet all standards by neutralization, oil
separation, and clarification. Where discharge of
pollutants from fly ash transport is prohibited, it
will be necessary to resort to dry removal methods.
Low volume wastes are treated by equalization,
neutralization, oil separation, and clarification.
They may be combined with the blowdown from ash
transport water, for treatment.
• Area Runoff. Area runoff may be treated by
impoundment, lime addition for pH control, and
discharge of the neutral, settled water.
3-313
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The most recent analysis of costs for this sector vas
provided to the Agency by Temple, BarKer & Sloane/ Inc.,
(TBS)1. This analysis was conducted in somewhat greater
depth than, and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure, and is considered to be more precise. However,
time and resource constraints prevented incorporating these
costs into the scenario analyses using the SEAS model
procedure. The TBS estimates are as follows (in million
1975 dollars}:*
incremental investment (1974-1983) 4,500
Incremental O&M (1974-1983) 2,100
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculations are presented
in Table 4-35-1 (with capital expenditures during the period
1974-1983 equal to 5.2 billion dollars). The SEAS values
were based upon the EPA report Economic Analysis of
Efficient Guidelines. Steam Electric Plants (December 1974).
Costs for enhancement were not estimated in this earlier
report, and thus are not included in the SEAS projections.
Two significant modifications are included in the revised
baseline estimates for the electric utility industry.
First, capital expenditures requirements have declined
primarily because reduced growth for the industry means
fewer new units will be built than had previously been
expected.- The O&M costs have risen due to the increased
fuel costs acclerating the cost of making up the energy
penalties associated with closed-cycle cooling. The net
change from the results associated with the 1974 report has
been approximately a seventeen percent reduction in
kilowatts covered by the relatively expensive thermal
guidelines, a twelve percent reduction in capital
expenditure impacts and a substantial increase in operations
and maintenance expenses.
"Economic and Financial impacts of EPA's Air and Water
Pollution Controls on the Electric utility Industry,"
Temple, BarKer & Sloane, Inc., May 1976.
3-314
-------
Table 4-35-2.
Steam Electric Power
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (Megawatts) 726,560. 1.12O.30O.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 7.62%
1,267,OOO.
U>
EFFLUENTS (1.0OO MT/Yr)
1977
1971 Controls:
TSS (Coal only) 80.61
Dissolved Sol Ids
(Coal and Elec. Utilities) 2,724.21
1983
89.35
3.043.OO
1985
93.73
3,2O1.58
Legislated Controls:
TSS (Coal only) 65.35 16.39 O
Dissolved Solids
(Coal and Elec. Utilities) 2.832.O2 3,155.48 3,322.16
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
1,018.50
O.OO
1 ,608. 16
O.O
2,626.67
(BPT) 157
0
2,453
O
2,610
.13 (BAT)
,OO
.46
.0
.60
698.23
0.00
4,674.41
O.O
5,372.64
-------
Table 4-35-2. (Continued)
Steam Electric Power
Industry Data Summary
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued) COST IN YEAR
Annualized Costs 1977 1983 1985 1976-85
Annua11 zed Capital' 345.34 67O.92 788.53 5,346.65!
O&M5
On-s1te Treatment 131.88 253.57 331.04 2,108.53
Pretreatment 0.0 0.0 O.O O.O
Totals 131.68 253.57 331.04 2,108.53
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery O.O 0.0 O.O O.O
User Charges' O.O 0.0 O.O 0.0
Totals O.O O.O 0.0 O.O
Grand Totals 477.22 924.49 1,119.57 7,455.18
1 Annualized on-s1te and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent Interest with zero salvage value.
* The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of Investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are-relative to Investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in 1973. Hence, O&M expenditure In any year bears no particular relationship to the
investment made in that year.
• User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Steam Electric Industry includes power generation using coal, oil, natural gas, and
nuclear fuels.
-------
SOAP AND DETERGENT INDUSTRY
Production Characteristics and Capacities. Data from the
Census of Manufacturers. 1967. identify 668 establishments
in the industry, in spite of this large number, production
is highly-concentrated in the industry with 12
establishments accounting for 47 percent of the industry's
value-added, and 28 establishments accounting for 73 percent
of value-added. The "big three" companies, Proctor and
Gamble, Lever Brothers, and Colgate-Palmolive, dominate the
package detergent industry with 80-85 percent of the market.
The soap and detergent industry establishments are engaged
in the manufacture of soap, synthetic organic detergents,
inorganic alkaline detergents, or any combination of these
processes. Crude and refined glycerine production from
vegetable and animal fats and oils is also accomplished by
firms in the industry, in popular use, the term "soap"
refers to those cleaning agents based primarily on natural
fat. The term "detergent" is generally restricted to
cleaning compounds derived largely from petrochemicals.
Detergents can be formulated with entirely different organic
and inorganic chemicals to exhibit the same cleaning power
or have the same biodegradability.
Basic raw materials used in the manufacture of soap come
from chemical and agricultural processors arid include
caustic soap, fats/ and oils. Raw materials for detergents
are supplied mostly from large chemical and petrochemical
companies and consist primarily of detergent alkylate,
alcohols, and surfactants.
Soaps and detergents are produced with a variety of
manufacturing processes. In the traditional batch-Kettle
process of manufacturing soap, a mixture of refined and
bleached fats, oils, caustic soda, and salt is alternatively
boiled, settled, and drained of lye, etc., over a period
from 4 to 6 days. Another process first converts the fats
and oils to fatty acids, then mixes these with caustic soda,
soda ash, and salt to produce soap- this "fatty acid
neutralization" process is faster and produces less
wastewater.
Detergents customarily .consist of two main components, the
surfactant or active ingredient, and the builder which
performs many functions including buffering the pH and soil
dispersion. Surfactants, usually alcohol sulfate or alkyl
benzene sulfonate, are produced from a variety of processes
in which alcohols, alkyl benzene and/or ethoxylates are
combined in a reactor with sulfur compounds, usually sulfur
trioxide. The resultant products are then neutralized and
3-317
-------
blended with the requisite builders and additives to produce
the desired detergent.
waste Sources and Pollutants. waste loads from the
different soap and detergent manufacturing processes vary
considerably. Some processes are completely dry and produce
no wastewaters. The major pollution sources from other
processes are leaks and spills, washout waters/ scrubber
water from air pollution control equipment, barometric
condensate, and cooling tower blowdown. Wash and
wastewaters produced by some of the processes result in some
very strong pollutants, such as sewer lyes, salt brine,
acids, glycerine foots, and spent catalysts.
Pollutants covered by the effluent limitations guidelines
include BODI5, COD, suspended solids, surfactants, oil and
grease, and pH.
Control Technology and Costs. Almost all (98 percent) of
the plants in the soap and detergent industry discharge
their wastewater into municipal treatment systems. This
leaves fewer than a dozen plants which are point-source
dischargers into navigable waters. Of these, only one has a
complete primary-secondary treatment system. Several plants
have aerated or non-aerated lagoons.
The major pollutants and the treatment methods usually
employed to handle them are as follows:
3-318
-------
Pollutants
Treatments
Oil and grease
Suspended solids
Dispersed organics
Dissolved solids
(inorganic)
1. Gravity separation
2. Coagulation and sedimentation
3. Carbon absorption
4. Mixed-media filtration
5. Flotation
1. Plain sedimentation
2. Coagulation and sedimentation
3. Mixed-media filtration
1. Bioconversion (i.e., aerated
lagoons, extended aeration,
activated sludge, contact
stabilization, trickling
filters)
2. Carbon absorption
1. Reverse osmosis
2. ion exchange
3, Sedimentation
4. Evaporation
Acidity or alkalinity 1. Neutralization
Sludge disposal
1. Digestion
2. Incineration
3. Lagooning
4. Thickening
5. Centrifuging
6. Wet oxidation
7. Vacuum filtration
Source: EPA Development Document, April 1974, p.96.
Probably the largest reductions in the pollution load from
this industry can be made through lower process water usage.
One of the biggest improvements would be either changing the
operating techniques associated with the barometric
condensers or replacing them entirely with surface
condensers. Large reductions in water usage in the
manufacture of liquid detergents could be achieved through
the installation of additional water recycling, and by the
use of air rather than water to blow out filling lines.
BPT guidelines call for plants to adopt good housekeeping
procedures, adopt recycling where appropriate, and install
biological secondary treatment (byconversion). BAT
3-319
-------
guidelines assume improvement in manufacturing prpcesses
such as the replacement of barometric condensers by surface
condensers, the installation of tandem-chilled water
scrubbers (for spray-dried detergents), and' the use of a
batch counter-current process in air-SO3 sulfation and
sulfonation. in addition, improvements in end-of-pipe
treatment are expected including the addition of sand or
mixed-media filtration or the installation of a two-stage,
activated sludge process. New source performance standards
are the same as BAT for most product subcategories.
improvements over BAT are expected where the installation of
new, lower-polluting processes, such as continuous processes
instead of batch processes, is possible.
Since approximately 90 percent of the soap and detergent
manufacturers discharge into municipal sewers, the total
cost to the industry of meeting these guidelines is low.
Annualized control costs and industry statistics are
detailed in Table 4-36-1.
A recent analysis of costs for this sector was conducted by
Gianessi and PesKin (G&P)*. This study was conducted
independently and subsequent to the general data gathering
efforts associated with the SEAS uniform cost calculation
procedure. However, time and resource constraints prevented
incorporating these costs into the scenario analyses using
the SEAS model procedure. The soap and detergent G&P
estimates are as follows (in 1975 dollars):
incremental BPT Investment 7.0
Incremental BPT O&M 1.1
Estimates from the earlier SEAS calculations are presented
below, with projected pollutant discharges associated with
these costs. The principal reason for the difference in the
estimates is that G&P assumes that 95 percent of total
process water flow is discharged to municipalities, and that
77 percent of the plants incur pretreatment costs, being
detergent plants. SEAS assumes no pretreatment costs, the
only costs to the industry being municipal charges. There
is also a substantial difference in growth assumptions about
the industry. The municipal charges listed by G&P for soaps
and detergents is 24.7 million dollars, as compared to the
SEAS estimate for Municipal Investment Recovery and User
Charges, summing to 28.0 million dollars over a comparable
period.
3-320
-------
Gianessi, L. p. and H. M. Peskin, "The Cost to Industries
of the Water Pollution Control Amendment of 1972,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, December, 1975.
(Revised January 1976)
3-321
-------
Table 4-36-1
Soap and Detergent
Industry Data Summary
ACTIVITY LEVEL
1977
1983
1985
Capacity (KKG/Day) 2,773. 4,469.
Annual Growth Rate Over the Period 1976-1985 = 7.16%
4,865.
EFFLUENTS (1,000 MT/Yr)
1971 Controls:
TSS
BOD5_
COD
Oils and Greases
Legislated Controls:
TSS
BOD5
COD
011s and Greases
1977
1983
1985
5.54
16.51
12.97
O.58
2. 14
6.38
6.08
O.22
8.
25.
20.
O.
1 .
2,
3.
0.
56
53
06
89
55
,54
. 17
. 16
9.32
27.80
21 .84
0.97
1 .68
2. 01
2.48
0. 18
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $)
Investment
Existing Plants
On-site Treatment
Pretreatment
New Plants
Municipal Investment Recovery
Totals
1974-77
AGGREGATED OVER
1978-83
1976-85
O.O (BPT)
0.0
O.O
8.89
8.89
O.O (BAT)
0.0
O.O
68.99
68.99
0.0
0.0
O.O
1O1 .74
101.74
-------
Table 4-36-1
Soap and Detergent
Industry Data Summary
to
00
CONTROL COSTS (Million 1975 $) - (Continued)
Annualized Costs 1977
Annualized Capital1 O.O
0&MS
On-site Treatment O.O
Pretreatment O.O
Totals O.O
Municipal Charges
Investment Recovery 3.88
User Charges4 6.36
Totals 1O.24
Grand Totals 1O.24
COST IN YEAR
1983
O.O
0.0
0.0
O.O
12.91
12.85
25.76
25.76
1985
O.O
O.O
0.0
O.O
13. 19
13.76
26.94
26.94
1976-85
0,0*
O.O
O.O
0.0
1O1.74
146.92
248.66
248.66
1 Annualized on-site and pretreatment costs are computed on the assumption of a 15 year useful life
at 1O percent interest with zero salvage value.
1 The decade total of annualized cost may not be relatable to the decade total of investment because
of the timing of investment expenditures over the decade.
3 O&M costs in any year are relative to investment made in the year plus all prior year investments
commencing in-1973. Hence, O&M expenditure in any year bears no particular relationship to the
Investment made in that year.
* User charges denote the O&M component of the municipal treatment charges. The investment com-
ponent is denoted under investment recovery.
Note: The Soap and Detergent industry includes the manufacturing of soap, organic and inorganic
detergents, and any combination of the three.
-------
Section Four
A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF POLLUTION CONTROL:
IMPACT MEASUREMENT UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
This Section presents national- and sectoral-level estimates
of the key economic, environmental, and energy impacts of
Federal pollution control laws and regulations. These
impacts are examined under different sets of basic
assumptions about economic activity levels and energy
conservation policies and programs. The period of 1971
through 1985 is evaluated since it includes the time frame
during which the Federally mandated environmental policies
will be put into effect. The analysis is conducted by
running alternative scenarios through a computerized system
for impact estimation and analysis; the computer system used
is the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEASK
The magnitude and interrelationships of estimated relative
impacts are forecast based upon the assumptions made
explicit in each scenario. The basic structure of the
economy, and the fiscal policies which help guide it, are
maintained for each specific run of the model system.
Changes in these and other basic assumptions are what
constitute a specific scenario.
All industrial, pollution control cost functions utilized in
this section are those used in the original SEAS
calculations. They have not been modified by the more
recent data which accompany SEAS cost estimates in Sections
2 and 3, and which have been included in nationally
aggregated cost totals presented elsewhere in the report.
This situation has little effect on the analyses in this
section, since the principle objective is to indicate the
relative impacts of potential alternative future conditions
on the national pollution control costs and residual
discharges, and not to precisely define the pollution
control costs for particular sectors of the economy.
4-1
-------
Chapter 1
impact Estimation Using
The Strategic Environmental
Assessment system (SEAS)
in several previous studies and reports/ there have been
estimates made of the projected impacts on the national
economy of pollution abatement programs. The Environmental
protection Agency (e.g., see The Economics of. Clean wajter-
1973 and The Economic impact of the Federal Environmental
program-1974V, the Council on Environmental Quality (Annual
Reports}, the U. S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, and
other agencies have utilized a variety of economic models to
project impacts upon overall price inflation and levels of
economic activity. These models have included procedures
developed either by the agencies themselves or by private
groups, such as Chase Econometrics Associates, the BrooXings
Institute, and Data Resources incorporated. For the most
part, this previous vork has led to forecasts indicating
that the inflationary influences of pollution abatement
programs would be comparatively minor relative to the
presence of numerous other inflationary influences, and that
the effects on national income would also be relatively
minor.
Several of the previous studies of pollution abatement
impacts have also devoted" considerable attention to
evaluating the benefits and costs attributable to pollution
abatement programs. The purpose of such benefit/cost
analyses has been to assess whether the nation would receive
economic and environmental benefits greater than the
expenditures required to achieve them.
The work described in this section departs from these
previous efforts in three important ways:
• First, no attempt is made to develop a single set of
impact projections,- rather, impacts are measured
relative to different sets of general socioeconomic
assumptions of future conditions;
• Second, the analysis focuses on how these impacts are
differentially affected by the various basic
assumptions about future economic and pollution control
activities and energy policy, rather than their
absolute levels (although these are also presented)-
• Third, control costs and resultant pollution estimates
are developed at a greater level of industrial detail
and the effect of cost feedbacks by sector are
4-2
-------
included. (Feedbacks are purchases made for pollution
control implementation and operation that increase
purchases from sectors that produce such items.)
The present imprecise state of knowledge regarding the
evaluation of future benefits makes any attempt to compile a
national aggregate figure for benefits subject to large
uncertainties. AS a substitute approach, consequences of
pollution abatement programs are analyzed through tradeoffs
among the various costs and impacts of achieving legislated
Federal control objectives.
The general procedure used for tradeoff analysis is as
follows:
1. Select a consistent set of general economic,
environmental, demographic and resource-energy
assumptions;
2. Calculate a set of forecasts of the economy, industry
outputs, environmental residuals and energy usage given
that specific industry environmental controls are not
increased beyond those present in 1971.
3. Calculate the same forecasts, given that environmental
controls, costs, and equipment purchases are
superimposed on the original economic structure as
necessary to comply with Federal pollution control
legislation.
4. Compare the differences in forecasts between the
abatement case and the non-abatement case for national
level statistics and for industry-detailed statistics.
This procedure was performed for three alternative sets of
assumptions, plus one variation on environmental controls
and costs. Steps 1 and 3 draw on the data provided in
Sections Two and Three of this report. The forecasts
required in Steps 2 and 3 are derived from operation of SEAS
using these data. Step 4, the impact analysis, is a
quantitative analysis of the SEAS simulation results for
each scenario to determine impacts upon environmental
pollution, pollution control costs, and economic and
resource usage statistics. (See Appendix A for a brief
description of the SEAS system used for this application.)
4-3
-------
Chapter 2
Scenario Assumptions
Six major scenarios were constructed to develop impact
estimates through 1985 for alternative sets of assumptions
about the future. The six scenarios are divided into three
pairs, with each pair representing a predefined "case" of
future economic and energy-consumption conditions. The
three cases selected for this study are a Reference Case, a
Low productivity Case, and an Energy conservation Case.
A "non-abatement" scenario and an "abatement" or
"compliance" scenario were run to provide the two
alternative forecasts for each case, thereby showing the
incremental impacts of pollution control. Each forecast
provides annual projections through 1985 of major
macroeconomic and demographic variables, industrial outputs,
energy usage, domestic demand for virgin stocks, recycling
levels, transportation demand, and environmental pollution
levels. The first, or non-abatement scenario, estimates the
value of these variables in the absence of Federal pollution
control legislation after 1970. It assumes that no
incremental expenditures are made by industries, utilities,
and municipalities to improve pollution control beyond
processes in place in 1971, and that all new industrial
facilities will control pollution to the same extent as that
practiced in 1971. it also assumes that Federal
expenditures do not include any additional subsidies for
pollution control past 1971. The non-abatement scenario,
however, does allow for pollution reductions resulting from
switching to new process technologies which would have
occurred without Federal legislation.
The second or abatement scenario in each pair assumes that
sufficient abatement expenditures are made to bring air and
water pollution from industry, utility, municipal, and
mobile sources into full compliance with Federal statutes.
It also provides for additional Federal expenditures to
cover the cost of pollution abatement at Federal plants and
the cost of other Federally-sponsored pollution control
programs. The abatement scenarios provide estimates of the
incremental costs of pollution control through 1985, in
addition to estimates of the same variables forecast in 'the
non-abatement scenarios.
The six scenarios run for the three cases are summarized
below:
4-4
-------
Non-Abatement
Scenarios (Without Abatement Scenarios
Incremental Control {With incremental
Case Costs) Control Costs)
Reference Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Low
Productivity Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Energy
Conservation Scenario 5 Scenario 6
The following names are used in the remainder of this
Section to identify each scenario;
Scenario 1 - The Reference Scenario
Scenario 2 - The Reference Abatement Scenario
Scenario 3 - The Low Productivity Scenario
Scenario 4 - The Low Productivity Abatement Scenario
Scenario 5 - The Energy Scenario
Scenario 6 - The Energy Abatement Scenario
The six scenarios were produced in the sequence shown in
Figure 1. This sequence is designed to permit a comparative
analysis of the relative impacts and tradeoffs between
logical scenario pairs.. Certain pairs are compared to
analyze the consequences of pollution control under the
conditions assumed for each case: (1,2), (3,4) and (5,6).
Other pairs . provide an analysis of the impacts of the
assumptions themselves, both in the absence of incremental
abatement costs: (1,3) and (1,51; and with these costs
applied: (2,4) and (2,6K
4-5
-------
Figure 1.
Scenario Run Sequence
KEY: - SIMCLE SCENARIO RUN
f J-SCENARIO COMPARISON RUN
SI - THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
S3 - THE REFERENCE ABATEMENT SCENARIO
S3 - THE LOW PRODUCTIVITY SCENARIO
S4 - THE LOW PRODUCTIVITY ABATEMENT SCENARIO
55 - THE ENERGY SCENARIO
S6 - THE ENERGY ABATEMENT SCENARIO
4-6
-------
The objective in comparing the economic, environmental, and
energy consequences of two scenarios is not to claim that
one is better or more realistic than the other, but to
develop an analysis that will provide meaningful abatement
cost forecasts for a range of economic and energy
projections. Examples of the kind of analysis afforded by
constrasting scenario cases is presented below:
• The Reference Case vs. The Low Productivity Case - The
two Reference Case scenarios call for the U.S. economy
to approach full employment in the early 1980's along a
relatively high productivity, high growth supply-
oriented path. The alternative Low Productivity Case
scenarios reflect a lower productivity and growth
profile. By comparing first the Low Productivity
Scenario with the Reference Scenario, and then the Low
Productivity Abatement Scenario with both the Low
Productivity Scenario and the Reference Abatement
Scenario, one can analyze the economic, environmental,
and energy consequences of implementing pollution
controls with alternative labor-productivity
conditions. Such an analysis affords insights into the
differences in abatement cost impacts arising from two
relatively realistic, but potentially very different,
economic futures. By 1985, the difference in GNP due
to these alternative productivity conditions is about
12 percent.
• The Reference Case vs. The Energy Conservation Case -
The Reference Case scenarios contain a number of basic
energy conservation policy measures. The alternative
Energy Conservation Case scenarios provide for an even
more stringent set of energy conservation policies and
programs. A comparison of the Energy Scenario with the
Reference Scenario, followed by comparisons of the
Energy Abatement Scenario with the Energy Scenario and
the Reference Abatement Scenario, affords insight into
the differences in the potential economic,
environmental, and energy consequences of legislated
pollution controls under a range of energy consumption
assumptions.
The detailed assumptions used to construct the Reference and
Reference Abatement Scenarios are presented in Appendix B
along with the changes in those assumptions made for the Low
Productivity and the Energy Conservation Cases.
4-7
-------
Chapter 3
Macro-Analysis Results
Results from the six SEAS scenario runs were subjected to
both macro- and sector-level analyses of the estimated
economic, environmental, and energy consequences of
pollution control. The following discussion presents the
macro-level findings, beginning with the Reference Scenario
and proceeding through the selected scenarios and scenario
comparisons.- In addition, Appendix C presents an analysis
of the Municipal Scenario, a variant of the Reference
Abatement Scenario that assumes a continuing appropriation
of $7 billion a year for municipal sewage treatment
facilities through the 1976-1985 decade.
A summary of the major results from the SEAS scenarios is
presented in Table 1. These results show that, over the
decade 1976-85, the total cost of complying with Federal air
and water pollution control legislation constitutes a
relatively small portion of the decade's cumulative gross
national product (<3NP). Total decade abatement costs, as a
percentage of GNP, range from 2.09 percent for the Reference
Case to 2.25 percent for the Reference Case variant
identified above as the Municipal Scenario.
Table 1 indicates a fairly constant increase in energy use
by 1985 of 4.2 to 4.9 quadrillion Btu's resulting from the
addition of pollution abatement practices in each of the
four abatement scenarios. It also shows the reduction in
net residuals (residuals discharged to the environment
either before or after treatment) achieved by 1985 as a
percentage of the Reference Scenario forecasts for each of
five air and four water pollutants. In general, the
greatest abatement (reduction of residuals released to the
carrier medium) is attained in the Low Productivity Case,
except for the lower amounts of biochemical oxygen demand
(BOD), suspended solids, and nutrients are achieved in the
Municipal Scenario.
The annual composition of detailed data on the economy,
energy use, resource demand, pollutant residuals, and
abatement costs are presented in the individual scenario
analyses which follow.
4-8
-------
Table 1
Summary of Scenario Results
*> Scenario
vo
Reference
Reference
Abatement
Municipal
Low Productivity
Low Productivity
Abatement
Energy
Energy
Abatement
1976-85
Decade GNP
(Trillion 1975$)
2O.OO7
20. 153
20.181
18.596
18.8O4
2O.O62
2O. 187
1976-85
Incremental
Decade
Pollution1
Control Cost
(% GNP)
2.O9
2.25
2.22
2. 13
1985 Energy
Consumption
(Quad Btu's)
1O9.O
113.5
113.9
1O2.O
106.2
95.7
10O.4
Net Residuals 1n 1985' (% of Reference)
SO Part NO HC CO BOD SS OS Nut.
1OO.O 1OO.O 1OO.O 10O.O 10O.O 10O.O 10O.O 10O.O 10O.C
38.514.O91.439.523.621.9 9.862.38O.5
38,614.191.739.523.615.O 5.662.428.4
9O.490.688.587.284.792.491,388.399.1
34.612.581.635.22O.32O.5 9.455.O8O.1
89.896 . 491 .886. 386 . 399. 599 .096 . TOO, O
35.213.584.835.O21.521.8 9.959.68O.5
' See Tables 4, 12., and 21 1n this chapter and Table C-1 1n Appendix C, for composition of pollution control
costs by year from 1976 through 1985.
1 SO * Sulfur Oxides. Part = Partlculates, NO » Nitrogen Oxides, HC = Hydrocarbons, CO « Carbon Monoxide,
BOD * Biochemical Oxygen Demand, SS * Suspended Solids, DS = Dissolved Solids, Nut. = Nutrients
-------
THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
The Reference Scenario, which acts as the baseline for all
subsequent projections, includes the general forecast
assumptions described below. {See Appendix B for a detailed
discussion of these assumptions.)
1. High productivity and government policy to achieve a
full-supply labor force economy by the mid-1980s will
produce a 1985 GNP of $2.36 trillion (1975 constant
dollars) with an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent for a
projected labor force of 107.7 million civilian
workers.
2. No municipal or industrial process will increase its
pollution control treatment efficiency levels above
those in use during 1971.
3. Energy usage and conservation will be consistent with
energy forecasts of the $7.00/barrel "Business-as-Usual
Without Conservation" scenario of Project independence,
with an aggregate energy requirement of 109 quadrillion
Btu's in 1985.
Based on these assumptions, the Reference Scenario forecast
was projected over the decade 1976-85. Some general
statistics that characterize the baseline projections appear
in Table 2.
The picture of the national economy for this baseline is one
in which the economy will gradually grow out of the 1975
recession to achieve an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent by
1985. GNP grows at a 6.5 percent rate between the years
1975-80 and at a 4.0 percent rate between 1981-85.
Over the decade, the personal consumption expenditures and
equipment investment components of the GNP show greater
growth rates than the overall GNP growth rate. Non-Federal
government expenditures increase at rates well ahead of the
increases in the eicogenously set Federal expenditures level
(4.4 percent annual increase compared to 1,6 percent).
Total industrial output grows at a rate somewhat greater
than GNP with the sectors related to agriculture and mining
showing the slowest rates of growth, manufacturing sectors
growing at a rate slightly less than that for total output,
and the sectors related to services, transportation^
communications, and electric utilities exhibiting the
highest growth rates. The slowdown in the growth rate for
the GNP in the years 1980-85 as the country catches up from
the downturn of the early Seventies is also reflected in
4-10
-------
decreasing rates for most of these industrial output
rates.
The energy requirement to support this economic pattern
reflects a growing demand for electricity. By 1985, coal
and nuclear sources will account for 63 percent of all
energy used in electrical generation, with coal accounting
for 33 percent. Growth in natural gas, petroleum and coal
usage to meet non-electrical energy demands on an annual
rate basis over the decade is 1.1 percent, 2.8 percent and
3.8 percent, respectively.
4-11
-------
Table 2.
General Projections of the Reference Scenario (S1),
1976-1985
Statistics
Population (Millions)
Labor Force (Millions)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Disposable Income
Per Capita (1.OOO 1975
Gross National Product
(Trill1on 1975 $)
Persona1 Consumpt1on
Expenditures
Investment
Government Expenditures
Federal
Other
Total Output
(Trill Ion 1975 $)
Total Energy Use
(Quadrillion Btu's)
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Electricity
U.S. Demand
(Mill ion Metric Tons)
Copper
Iron
A1urn1num
Recycled Materials
(Mm ion Metric Tons
Paper/Paperboard
A1um1num
Ferrous Metals
1976
1977
1978
1979
215.80
95.40
7.90
5.62
1.56
0.97
O.26
0.32
O. 12
0.20
2.61
79.97
19.06
31 .36
4.59
24.95
3.20
141 .97
5.65
65.76
6. 19
1 .48
38.26
217.70
97.00
7.10
5.99
1 .67
1.02
0.29
O.33
0. 12
0.21
2.8O
83.48
18.96
32.38
4.89
27.26
3.55
15O.81
6.15
69.73
6.62
1.64
40.27
219.80
98.60
6.OO
6.61
1.77
1,12
0.29
O.34
0. 12
O.22
2.98
86.63
19.43
33.40
5. 01
28.78
3.73
149. 4O
6.42
72.75
7.16
1 .70
41.33
22 1 . 9O
1OO.20
5.5O
7.04
1 .89
1. 19
0.32
O.35
O.12
O.23
3, 19
9O. 12
19.92
34.52
5.28
30. 4O
3.93
158.88
6.89
76.72
7.67
1.88
43. 13
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
224.1O. 226.40 228.7O 231.CO 233.4O 235.7O
1O1.8O 1O3.20 104.50 1O5.7O 1O6.7O 107.70
5.1O 5.30 4.8O 4.60 4.50 4.4O
7.54 7.73 8.O7 8.31 8.55 "8.78
2.01 2.O8 2.15 2.22 2.29 2.36
1.28 1.32 1.39 1.46 1.51 1.56
0.34 0.35 O.36 0.36 0.37 O.38
O.36 O.37 0.38 0.39 O.4O 0.41
O.12 O.12 O.13 O.13 O,13 O.14
O.24 0.25 O.25 0.26 0.27 O.27
3.41 3.53 3.67 3.8O 3.93 4.O7
93 .6296 . 4O99 . 4
-------
Table 2. (Continued)
General Projections of the Reference Scenario (S1),
1976-1985
I
NJ
Ul
Statistics
Total Vehicle Kilometers
(TM11 Ions)
Auto
Total Freight Metric Ton-
Kilometers (Billions)
Truck
Rail
Net Air Residuals
(Million Metric Tons)
PartIculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals
(Million Metric Tons)
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand
Suspended Sol ids
Dissolved Solids
Nutrients
Incremental
Air Control Costs
Investment'
Annual1zed Costs
Capital'
05M
Capital in Place
Direct Employment
1976 1977 1978 1979 198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
2.O5 2.11 2.21 2.28 2.35 2.42
2.03 2.09 2.19 2.26 2.33 2.40
4.35 4.49 4.64 4.80 4.96 5.13
O.95 1.OO 1.04 1.O9 1.14 1.2O
1.37 1.41 1.45 1.49 1.53 1.57
37 .4138 . 1538.9939.9540.9442.OO
44.1244.6145.3746.2547.2648.44
23.1823.7724.6025.3926.2427.16
14.0114.2814.7515.1415.5515.94
89.2091.9O96.1O99.3OO2.5O 1O5.70
5.12 5.24 5.4O 5.55 5.69 5.84
11.7711.9712.1812.4112.6412.89
14.2314.3314.5114.6614.8014.95
1.28 1.30 1.33 1.35 1.37 .1.4O
0 0 O OOOOOO
0 O 0 OOOOOO
0 0 0 OOOOOO
0 0 O OOOOOO
O 0 0 OOOOOO
0 0 O OOOOOO
1 .
1 .
3.
O.
1 .
3O.
36.
18.
12.
7O.
4.
9.
12,.
1 .
62
61
55
73
14
37
74
65
17
3O
23
78
O6
19
1
1
3.
O
1 .
32
39
20.
12
74,
'4,
10.
12
1
.70
.68
.76
.79
.21
.43
.87
,00
.42
.10
.44
.31
.57
,21
1
1
3
0
1,
33
41
21 .
13,
79,
4
1O,
13.
1 ,
.85
.83
.92
.83
.25
.85
. 14
.07
.02
.80
.68
.67
. 14
.23
1
1
4
O
1
35
42
22.
13.
84,
4.
11 .
13,
1 ,
.94
.92
. 14
.89
.31
.61
.59
.07
.46
.20
.89
.20
.68
.26
O
0
O
O
0
0
-------
Table 2. (Continued)
General Projections of the Reference Scenario (S1),
1976-1985
I
M
rf»
Statistics
Incremental
Water Industrial Costs
Investment
Annual1zed Costs
Capital
O&M
Capital In Place
Direct Employment
Incremental
Water Municipal Costs
Investment
Annual1zed Costs
Capital
O&M
Capital 1n Place
Direct Employment
1976 1977 1978 1979 198O 198,1 1982 1983 1984 1985
O O O O OOOOOO
O 0 0 0 OOOOOO
O 0 0 O OOOOOO
0 O O O OOOOOO
O 0 0 O OOOOOO
0 0 0 O OOOOOO
O 0 O 0 OOOOOO
0 0 0 0 OOOOOO
O O 0 0 OOOOOO
0 0 0 O OOOOOO
0 0 0 O OOOOOO
0 0 O 0 OOOOOO
Includes state transportation control costs and mobile source pollution abatement expenditures.
Annualized to include interest on all investments, including those for mobile source controls.
-------
Resource demand projections for the Reference Scenario
indicate increasing requirements for virgin ore resources.
For example, U.S. demand for iron ore increases at an
average annual rate of slightly over 2 percent per year over
the- period, with higher rates during the 1970 decade.
Similar demand patterns, but with slightly higher rates of
increase, are noted for both aluminum and copper ores. This
usage reflects the growth pattern shown in Table 2 for total
output, with the annual growth rates of the late 1970's two
times or more the rates for the early 1980's. The patterns
noted for these metal ores are also found in the demand
statistics for recycling of paper/paperboard, aluminum and
ferrous metals. Demand for recycled aluminum is
particularly heavy over the decade, averaging about 8
percent growth per year.
As a final set of characterizations of the Reference
Scenario, the following patterns can be noted for annual
levels of air and water residuals released to the
environment.
First, the annual growth rates for all air- and water-borne
residuals are less than the economic growth rate and are
less than the manufacturing output growth rate. Thus, even
with no improved treatment efficiencies past 1971, relative
improvement in residuals per dollar of output produced are
noted for all major residuals categories due to increasing
use of cleaner production technologies. However, the change
is relatively small, and the absolute levels of annual
residual loads continue to increase for all air and water
residual categories throughout the decade.
Second, the decade projections also show that air residuals
are increasing at rates greater than the water residuals.
To provide greater detail on growth rates by generation
source (i.e., industrial, municipal, transportation, or
electric utilities), Figures 1 and 2 are . provided for
evaluation and comparison. The data in Figures 1 and 2
demonstrate that although the growth rates of air residuals
connected with mobile" sources are greater than those for
stationary sources, the growth rate of air residuals from
any source is consistently higher than the growth rate of
water residuals.
Finally, Table 3 presents the change in stationary source
treatment efficiencies from 1975 through 1985. These
efficiencies are calculated as gross residuals less net
residuals divided by gross residuals, where:
• Gross residuals equal the residuals that would occur if
there were no end-of-process treatment of discharges.
4-15
-------
» Net residuals equal the residuals that occur due to
end-of-process treatment of discharges by each
industrial process.
4-16
-------
Figure 1.
Trends in Air Residuals in Reference Scenario
JPP
J1 T7
YtM
4-17
-------
Figure 2.
Trends in Water Residuals In Reference Scenario(1971-1985
mion~tiu.li
t
fl n n
rft pi TiTrl'l
4-18
-------
Table 3.
Relative Stationary Source Treatment Efficiencies
of Selected Pollutants for the
Reference Scenario
(Efficiencies in Percent of Residuals Removed)
1975 1980 1985
Air Residuals
Particulates 73.66 74.05 73.83
Sulfur Oxides 23.89 23.26 23.54
Nitrogen Oxides 0.23 0.24 0.26
Hydrocarbons 39.69 39.66 41.41
Carbon Monoxide 46.46 46.68 48.07
Water Residuals
Biochemical oxygen
Demand 69.02 67.74 67.57
Suspended Solids 82.82 83.11 83.68
Dissolved Solids 31.10 32.43 34.57
Nutrients 35.42 38.97 40.88
In the case of air residuals, the treatment efficiencies are
relatively constant, suggesting only minor improvements from
switches in industrial processes used for the abatement of
air emissions. On the other hand, the treatment
efficiencies for water residuals exhibit small increases
over the.decade (with the exception of BOD). This suggests
that industrial sectors which had higher efficiency
treatment processes for water residuals as of 1971 are
growing faster than those industrial sectors with less
efficient processes.
in summary, environmental forecasts from the Reference
Scenario behave as would be expected with the calibration of
macroeconomic indicators to a high-growth, high-productivity
set of assumptions. Economic growth and resource usage are
greatest in the period 1975-80, with all annual growth rates
considerably slowed in 1980-85. Environmental residuals are
also increasing, -but the annual growth rates are less than
the annual economic growth rates. Between air and water
residuals, the air residuals consistently show the greatest
annual growth rates.
4-19
-------
COMPARISON OF THE REFERENCE
AND REFERENCE ABATEMENT SCENARIOS
The Reference .scenario assumptions were changed in the
following ways to provide a scenario that approximated the
Reference Scenario, but which also included the effects and
costs of Federal air and water pollution control
regulations:
1. All Federally mandated treatment efficiencies and
associated cost functions for control processes to
achieve these efficiencies were introduced into the
calculations,
2. All forecast capital and operation and maintenance
(O&M) pollution control costs were fed back into the
economy as increased interindustry purchases and labor
requirements on an annual basis.
3. The additional labor force required for pollution
control was assumed to be provided by reducing
unemployment until the commonly accepted minimum level
of 4 percent was reached. If in any year, unemployment
under abatement conditions fell below 4 percent, then
final demand was reduced through adjustment of Personal
Disposal income until an unemployment rate equal to or
slightly greater than 4 percent was produced.
The results of this new scenario, the Reference Abatement
scenario, are compared to those of the Reference Scenario in
the analysis that follows.
Under the schedule of compliance with Federal regulations
for the Reference Abatement Scenario, some of the capital
expenditures for pollution control devices occur as early as
1971; hence the 1975 data between the two scenarios exhibit
some differences. Table 4, which is comparable to Table 2
for the Reference Scenario, presents summary statistics for
the Reference Abatement Scenario. The values of the various
statistics for the years 1976 through 1985 provide a useful
means of comparing relative growth rates for the two
scenarios. Note that the costs and additional industrial
output associated with compliance in the Reference Abatement
Scenario act as a stimulus to GNP, total output and
employment,
In the period 1976-79, since there was sufficiently high
unemployment, the additional labor force required to carry
out the mandated pollution abatement activities is
transferred from idle resources, thus resulting in a net
4-20
-------
benefit to the economy. From 1980-85 however, the required
level of labor needed for pollution abatement is in excess
of the amount available, and so labor resources must be
taken away from other competing needs. Even in these years,
the fact that there are some unemployed resources before
abatement controls were mandated means that the GNP
increases in all years. Among the industries required to
implement abatement technologies, those that supply
abatement equipment and materials are impacted at various
levels. Although all supplying industries are required to
shift revenues away from production to pollution control in
their processes, some receive enough orders from other
industries to offset or more than offset the intra-industry
shifts. These industries are net gainers (i.e., platinum),
while remaining industries are net losers (i.e.,
agriculture).
4-21
-------
Table 4
General Projections of the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2),
1976-1985
#»
N>
Statistics
Population (Millions)
Labor Force (Millions)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Disposable Income
Per Capita (1 ,OOO 1975
Gross National Product
(Tri1 lion 1975 $)
Personal Consuinpt ion
Expenditures
Investment
Gov Expenditures
Federal
Other
Total Output
(Tril11on 1975 $)
Total Energy Use
(Quadrillion Btu's)
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Electricity
U.S. Demand
(Million Metric Tons)
Copper
Iron
A1um1num
Recycled Materials
(Million Metric Tons)
Paper/Paperboard
A1um1num
Ferrous Metals
$)
1976
215.80
95.40
6.40
5.62
1 .59
1977
217.7O
97.OO
5.4O
5.98
1 .69
1978
219.8O
98.60
4.4O
6.61
1 .80
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
221.9O 224.10 226..4Q 228.70 231 .OO 23.3. 4O 235.7O
10O.20 1O1.8O 1O3.2O 104.50 105.70 .106.7O 107.70
4.4O 4.6O 4.5O 4.4O 4.20 4.1O 4,1O
7.02 7.48 7.73 8.O1 8.29 8.52 8.72
1,91
0
o
o
0
o
2
82
19.
32.
4
25
3.
146.
5.
66.
6
1
38
..97
.28
.32
. 12
.20
.66
.81
.61
.65
.80
.77
.32
. 13
,81
.56
.23
.51
.81
1 .
0.
O.
0.
0,
2.
86.
19.
33,
5.
28.
3.
155.
6.
70.
6,
1
40
.03
.30
.34
. 12
.22
.86
.45
56
49
, 11
.29
.69
.72
33
,59
.66
.67
.85
1
0
O
0
0
3
89
20
34
5
30
3
155
6
73
7
1
41
. 12
..3.O
.35
. 12
.23
.04
.81
.06
.47
.25
.03
.86
.36
.60
.64
.20
.72
.96
1 .
0.
0.
O.
O.
3.
93.
2O.
35.
5.
31 .
4,
161 ,
7.
77
7.
1
43
19
33
36
12
24
24
37
56
59
46
76
,05
92
03
.31
.68
.90
.57
2.02 2.09 2.16 42.23 2.30 2.37
1.27 1.33
O.35 O.36
O.37 0.38
0.12 0.13
O.25 O.25 O.26 O.27 O.27 O.28
.39 1.45 1.5O 1.56
0.36 O.37 0.37 0.38
O.39 O.4O 0.41 O.42
0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14
3.44 3.57 3.69 3.82 3.95 4.08
96 .7899.9402 .9.1O6. 3O09 .9513.51
21.0321.2721.4721.7222.O322.25
36.6137.6638.6139.6240.6441.62
5.66 5.78 5.89 6.O2 6.16 6.31
33.4935.2237.0038.9541.1243.33
4.21 4.27 4.34 4.41 4.47 4.53
167.29 168.23 166.SO 167.25 168.04 169.77
7.45 7.69 7.86 8.08 8.30 8.57
81.1O83.6185.§088.4790.8492.97
8.18 8.51 8.83 9.18 9.51 9.82
2.1O 2.29 2.23 2.47 2.60 2.68
45.1946.2947.3148.4O49.285O.06
-------
Table 4. (Continued)
General Projections of the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2),
1976-1985
Statistics
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
*>
I
to
W
Total Vehicle Kilometers
(TM 11 ions)
Auto
Total Freight Metric
Ton-Kilometers
(B111Ions)
Truck
Rail
Net A1r Residuals
(Million
Metric Tons)
Part leulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals
(Mi 111on
Metric Tons)
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand
Suspended Sol Ids
Dissolved Solids
Nutrients
1
1
3
0
1
12
19
18
1O
55
3
6
11
1
.62
.61
.66
.75
. 18
.68
.31
.59
.09
.76
. 18
.51
.48
. 14
1
1
3
0
1
8
14
19
S
52
2
4
11
1
.70
,68
.87
.81
.24
.29
.61
.81
.49
.6^
.75
.84
.49
.13
1 .
1 .
4.
0.
1.
8.
15.
2O.
9.
5O.
2.
2.
11.
1.
85
83
04
86
29
51
28
75
41
73
26
86
54
12
1 .
1 .
4.
0.
1 .
8.
15.
21 .
9.
47.
2.
2.
11.
1 .
93
92
24
9'1
34
85
94
46
15
35
23
87
94
13
2.03 2.11 2.19 2.27 2.35 2.41
2.02 2.O9 2.17 2.25 2.33 2.39
4.43 4.58 4.72 4.89 5.05 5.22
O.97 1.02 1.06 1.11 1.17 1.22
1.40 1.44 1.47 1.51 1.56 1.6O
9.17 9.34 8.5O 7.66 6.86 5.87
16.6117.0317.3317.7218.1718.63
22.1922.6123.2523.8224.2924.83
8.92 8.59 8.OO 7.38 6.86 6.29
43.8539.9535.1231.5227.6824.90
2.2O 2.O1 1.81 1.59 1.37 1.28
2.90 2.53 2.15 1.76 1.34 1.27
12.3211.391O.5O 9.72 9.03 9.31
1 . 13 1 . 13 1. 13 1 . 12 1 . 12 1 . 12
Incremental
A1r Control Costs
(B111 Ion 1975 $)
Investment'
Annualized Costs
Capital*
O&M
Capital in Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands)
6.38 8.32 1O.69 8.08 7.22 7.15 6.87 6.70 6.65 6.84
7.38 8.59 1O.88 12.80 14.4715.8516.9517.7818.3618.72
8.73 8.09 8.10 9.OO 9.6810.2210.6611.0711.4911.93
37.64 44.22 53.69 6O.67 65.997O.4O73.8176.3578.2O79.54
14 17 18 20 21 21 21 20 2O 2O
-------
Table 4. (Continued)
General Projections of the Reference Abatement Scenario (52),
1976-1985
Statistics
Incremental
Water Industrial Costs
(Bill Ion 1975 $)
Investment
Annualized Costs
Capital
O&M
Capital 1n Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands)
Incremental
Water Municipal Costs
(Bill ion 1975 $)
Investment
Annualized Costs
Capital
O&M
Capital in Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands)
1976
3.55
1.99
3.64
15. 12
114
6.55
2.27
O.68
20.63
2O
1977
5.67
2.73
4. SO
2O.79
150
8. 11
3. 17
0.93
28.74
27
1978
3.25
3. 15
5.85
23.98
183
8. 13
4.06
1 .36
36.88
40
1979
198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
5.05 6.38 5.76 6.97 5.31 1.36 1.64
3-. 81
8,31
4.64 5.39 6.30 6.99 7.15 7.35
6.74 7.OS 7.29 7.5910.7411.17
28.97 35.294O.9947.9O53.1553.3855.88
198 211 222 229 238 352 367
5.59 2.94 1.77 0.80 0.7O O.7O 0.53
4.68 5.0O 5.20 5.28 5.36 5.44 5.5O
1.61 1.76 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.0O
42.47 45.4147,1747.9748.6749.3749.90
48 52 54 56 57 58 59
1 Includes state transportation control costs'and mobile source pollution abatement expenditures.
2 AnnualIzed to Include interest on all Investments, Including those for mobile source controls.
-------
Table 5 provides a comparison of a number of scenario
statistics from the Reference Abatement Scenario with the
same values developed in the Reference Scenario for each of
five years. (This comparison uses the Reference Scenario as
a normalizing base, i.e. (S2-SD/S1.) Table 6 presents
pollution control costs by type throughout the decade as a
percent of GNP.
When looked at in comparative terms, the costs of pollution
control are relatively small for the Reference Abatement
Scenario. Both GNP, as noted earlier, and the output of
total goods and services increase throughout the decade.
Moreover, the introduction of these controls (given the
assumptions stated) is favorable for most factors of final
demand, such as Federal expenditures and investment.
Further, the change in production processes and the shift in
the mix of goods and services produced eventually results in
a lesser requirement for some of our natural resources, with
paper and iron ore being noticeable examples by 1985.
However, during the phase of major new capital development
(period to 1980), these same resources (and others) actually
are used at higher rates, particularly during the early part
of this time period. Finally, results in the reduction of
the air and water residuals released to the environment are
reduced. Except for nitrogen oxides (-8.66 percent),
nutrients (-19.51 percent), and dissolved .solids (-37.72
percent), these reductions are all greater than 60 percent.
Thus, over half of most residuals released to the
environment without pollution control are captured in the
Reference Abatement Scenario.
4-25
-------
(O
0*
Table 5.
Comparison of the Macro-Statistics of the Reference
Abatement Scenario (52) and the Reference Scenario (51)
[(S2-SO/S1 In X]
Statistic
Gross National Product
Disposable Income Per Capita
Total Employment
Federal Expenditures
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Total Output
Investment
Energy Use
Demand: Iron
A1um1num
Recycling: Paper/Paperboard
A1um1num
Ferrous Metals
Vehicle Kilometers
Freight Metric Ton-Kilometers
Net Air Residuals:
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals:
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
. Suspended Sol Ids
Dissolved Solids
Nutrients
1975
1977
1980
1983 1985
1 .92
O
1 .99
0.24
0.53
2.27
7.26
3.78
3.99
3.38
O.67
3.39
3.23
O
3.41
41 . 15
32.67
O. 1O
13. SO
19. OO
11.72
14. 18
-O.91
-1 .97
1.68
O
1.8O
1.O7
O.25
2.01
5.24
3. 55
3.25
3. 01
0.63
3.01
2.76
0
2.96
-74 . 69
-63 . 36
-0.95
-23.63
-28.99
-38. O4
-52. O9
-8.58
-6. 2O
O.43
-O.82
O.46
2.24
0.41
O.71
2.44
3.37
O. 1O
0.97
-0.25
0.98
0.77
-0.82
1.82
-75. 5O
-62.36
-4.3O
-36 . 34
-5O.57
-57.14
-75. 4O
-13.41
-11.98
O.34 O.96
-0.34 -0.59
0.43 O.24
2.20 2.17
-O.O9 -O.21
O.59 O.37
1.08 O
3.71 4.13
-1 . 19 -1.73
O.37 -O.O6
-0.11 -0.21
0.37 -O.O6
O.12 -0.28
-O.34 -O.59
1.78 1.85
-8O. 83-86. 03
-61.69-61.54
-6.21 -8.56
-51 .24-60.52
-68.27-76.45
-71.26-78. 14
-85.85-9O. 17
-33.71-37.72
-16.62-19.47
-------
fable 6.
Incremental Pollution Control costs
as a Percentage of Reference Scenario GHP
1977 1980 1983 1985 1976-85
Air Stationary
Source Costs
Annual Capital Cost 0.28 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.29
O&M Cost 0.26 0.28 0.25 0.24 0.26
Water industrial Costs
Annual Capital Cost 0.16 0.23 0.31 0.31 0.25
O&M Cost 0.28 0.33 0.34 0.47 0.35
Water Municipal Costs
Annual Capital Cost 0.19 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.23
O&M Cost 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08
The effects on environmental residuals in the Reference
Abatement Scenario are, as noted above, generally
substantial, but quite different patterns and relative
efficiencies emerge when these effects are compared with
those resulting from the 1971 control technologies of the
Reference Scenario. For example, the air residuals shown in
Table 7 reflect this differential effect:
• For particulates and sulfur oxides, the level of
maximum efficiency is nearly realized by 1980 with
minor changes after that time* Since the primary
emitters are stationary sources and existing plants are
assumed to be in full compliance with Federally
mandated pollution control standards by 1980, this time
pattern is expected. Further small improvement can be
noted after 1980 for particulates; this is due to the
more stringent regulations on new facilities.
• For nitrogen oxides, the relative levels of treatment
are so minimal that the level of annual residuals from
industries increases at nine-tenths the rate of
economic output. About 60 percent of all nitrogen
oxide residuals in 1985 are released by stationary
sources. For vehicle emissions, the rate of
improvement in treatment efficiencies is somewhat
4-27
-------
better, but still so marginal that an increase in
annual levels of total nitrogen oxides released to the.
air is noted. Table 8 provides data-for nitrogen oxide
from passenger transportation, showing & 39 percent
reduction in emissions per Kilometer in 1985 as
compared to the 1975 control levels.
For the final two air residual categories, hydrocarbons
and carbon monoxide, significant improvements in
treatment efficiencies by 1985 are noted as shown in
Table 8, with the improvements in post-1980
efficiencies continuing to be significant. This
effect, unliKe that seen for particulates, is because
the chief emitters of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide
are mobile sources of considerable vintage. Since
retrofit equipment is not a part of the assumed
pollution, controls, the steady state condition of
almost all automobiles having emission characteristics
similar to the roost stringent standards will not occur
until about 1995 when most of the 1975-and-earlier
vintage automobiles will have been retired. Thus,
delays in meeting specific mobile source standards will
be reflected in higher annual emissions for these two
air residual categories for periods up to two decades
later.
4-28
-------
Table 7.
Relative Stationary Source Treatment Efficiencies of
Selected Pollutants for the Reference and Reference Abatement Scenarios
(EffIc'lendes in Percent of Residuals Removed)
1975
1980
A1r Residuals
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Reference
73.66
23.89
0.23
39.69
46.46
Reference
Abatement
85.33
51 .24
2.53
SO. 79
62. 14
Reference
74.05
23.26
O.24
39.66
46.68
Reference
Abatement
1985
Reference
Reference Abatement
94.06
72,93
5.64
59.30
72.75
73.83 96.96
23.54 72.27
0,26 5,65
41.41 70.91
48.07 76.17
Water Residuals
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand 69.O2 72.43
Suspended Sol Ids 82.82 85.78
Dissolved Solids 31.10 33.8O
Nutrients 35.42 37.26
67.74 86.17 67.57 92.91
83.11 96.07 83.68 98.50
32.43 43.84 34..S7 61.15
38.97 47.45 40.88 53.83
Table 8.
Passenger Transportation Emission Levels for the Reference
and Reference Abatement Scenarios
(Metric Tons per Million Vehicle Kilometers Travelled)
A1r Residuals
1975
Reference
Reference
Abatement
1980 1985
Reference Reference
Reference Abatement Reference Abatement
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen 'Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
0.22
O.O8
1.94
2.65
22.05
0.18
0.08
1.82
2.28
17.91
O.21
0.08
1.92
2.21
22.3O
0. 16
0.08
1 .60
1 .25
10.48
0.21
0.08
1.91
2.13
22.48
0. 14
O.08
1.11
0.52
3.65
4-29
-------
The water residuals of the Reference Abatement Scenario
shown in Table 7 exhibit the following patterns:
• For BOD and total suspended solids, significant
improvement occurs throughout the decade, with high
points coinciding with the regulatory years for BPT and
BAT (1977 and 1983). Since most suspended solids are
treated within industrial plants, the required high-
efficiency level for industry is reflected in the
overall treatment efficiency of 96.1 percent in 1980
and 98.5 percent in 1985. For BOD, however, the
existing pre-1971 BOD removal efficiencies at municipal
plants result in an improvement of only 74 percent from
1971 efficiencies by 1985.. The actual treatment
efficiency achieved by 1985 is 93 percent of the BOD
and 98.5 percent of the suspended solids that would
have occurred if no treatment took place.
• For total dissolved solids, the Federal controls
produce some relative improvements in treatment
efficiency by 1977, the BPT compliance year, and then
increase that treatment efficiency by over 50 percent
by 1985. Even in 1985, however, the actual treatment
efficiency is only about 61 percent.
• For nutrients, the relative treatment efficiencies
improve from about 37 percent in 1975 to 54 percent in
1985. This improvement occurs primarily as a result of
the growth in tertiary treatment by municipal plants.
Thus, it appears that the Reference Abatement Scenario has
positive impacts compared to the Reference Scenario for both
environmental effects and effects on the general economy.
Areas that suffer adverse impacts do exist and are found
primarily as demand for higher resource usage.
In energy requirements, the Reference Abatement Scenario
generates an overall demand requiring a 3.4 percent increase
for 1980 and 4.1 percent by 1985. The annual rates of
growth compared to the Reference Scenario over the decade
are similar, as are demands for specific energy sources.
The reasons for the increased demand are both the additional
energy requirements resulting from the generally higher
economic output associated with control device purchases and
the energy needed to operate these devices.
Iron, aluminum and copper usage also reflects the stimulated
manufacturing output levels, as does recycling of
paper/paperboard, aluminum and ferrous materials. However,
material resource usage decreases after completion of the
major pollution capital investments while energy continues
4-30
-------
to grow due to operating demands from the pollution
equipment.
Finally, the comparison of the demand for transportation
reveals that passenger vehicle-kilometers, are slightly less
in the Reference Abatement Scenario after 1980. The
increase in freight metric-ton Kilometers over the decade in
the Reference Abatement Scenario is, however, relatively
steady and reflects higher manufacturing shipments.
Prior to presenting a detailed analysis of sector effects
for the Reference Case scenarios, the other two scenario
pairs are analyzed. This will provide an appreciation of
the effects of abatement policies under changes in those
parts of the national economy that are outside the control
of environmental policy makers.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE
LOW-PRODUCTIVITY SCENARIOS
The Low Productivity Case scenarios represent a low point on
the range of economic conditions; this allows for a greater
appreciation of the relative impacts of abatement
regulations under different economic conditions. The two
scenarios are labelled the Low Productivity Scenario and the
Low Productivity Abatement Scenario. The principal
difference between the Reference Case scenarios and the Low
Productivity Case scenarios is that the basic data for labor
productivity in each industry and the expenditures which
comprise the GNP elements were used directly from the
INFORUM-supplied data base for the Low Productivity Scenario
and the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario. (INFORUM is
the interindustry, input-output forecasting model which was
used to produce economic forecasts for SEAS. A summary of
this model is provided in Appendix A.) Use of this set of
data results in a less optimistic economic forecast relative
to the Reference Scenario after 1977, as shown in Figure 3.
In going from the Low Productivity Scenario to the Low
Productivity Abatement Scenario, the same steps were taken
as in going from the Reference Scenario to the Reference
Abatement Scenario.
A summary of the Low Productivity Scenario results is
presented in Table 9. Table 10 provides a comparison of
these results to the Reference Scenario, which also includes
no incremental pollution control costs or effects. In terms
of GNP, the Low Productivity Scenario results for 1975 are
greater than the projections used in the Reference Scenario.
By 1977, the two scenarios have nearly equal GNP's, and then
4-31
-------
the lower productivity assumptions rapidly reduce the level
of GNP so that by 1985 it is nearly 12 percent lover than
GNP in the Reference Scenario ($2.08 versus $2.36 trillion,
in constant 1975 dollars}.
4-32
-------
Figure 3.
Scenario Projections of GNP
(1971 Abatement Control Levels)
76 77 78 79 80 81 92 63 84 85
ENERGY CONSERVATION
CASES,)
4-33
-------
Table 9.
General Projections of the Low Productivity Scenario (S3),
1976-1985
Statistics
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
OJ
Population (Millions)
Labor Force (Millions)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Disposable Income
Per Capita (l.OOO 1975 $)
Gross National Product
(Tril1 ion 1975 $)
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Investment
Government Expenditures
Federal
Other
Total Output
(Tr1111on 1975 $)
Total Energy Use
(Quadrillion Btu's)
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Electricity
U.S. Demand
(Million Metric Tons)
Copper
Iron
Aluminum
Recycled Materials
(Million Metric Tons)
Paper/Paperboard
Aluminum
Ferrous Metals
215.8O
95. 4O
7.90
5.92
1.6O
217.70
97.0O
7. 2O
6.05
1.66
219.80
98.60
6.10
6.46
1.73
221.90
100.2O
5.50
6.57
1 .78
224. 10
1O1.80
5.20
6.76
1.84
226.4O
1O3.2O
5.3O
6.85
1.88
228.7O
1O4.5O
4.90
7.07
1.94
231.00
1O5.70
4.7O
7. 12
1.99
233.4O
1O6.70
4.50
7.26
2.04
235.7O
107.70
4.40
7.33
2.08
O.99
0.27
O.31
0.11
O.2O
2.68
81.28
19.43
31 .91
4.71
25.23
3.34
145.81
5.81
66.88
6.38
1.51
38.75
1.O3
0.28
O.32
O.11
O.21
2. SO
83.64
18.99
32.48
4.86
27.29
3.57
149.79
6.12
69.57
6.66
1.64
40. 15
1
O
O
0
0
2
85
19
33
4
28
3
143
6
71
7
1
40
.10
.28
.33
. 11
.22
.91
.62
. 15
.07
.86
.54
.63
.67
.21
.29
.02
.66
.60
1 .13
O.28
0.34
0.11
O.23
3. 01
87.46
19.20
33.59
4.93
29.73
3.67
146. SO
6.43
73.35
7.26
1 .80
41 .57
1
0
O
0
0
3
89
19
34
5
3O
3
149
6
75
7
1
42
. 17
.29
.35
.12
.23
. 12
.27
.28
.03
.02
.93
.73
.39
.65
.67
.52
.96
.61
1.21
O.30
0.35
0. 12
O.23
3. 2O
91 .45
19.33
34.74
5. 1O
32.28
3.75
149.3O
6.81
77.54
7.71
2. 14
43.50
1.25
O.31
0.36
O.12
0.24
3.32
94.23
19.52
35.59
S.25
33.87
3.88
151.09
7.O5
79.94
8.0O
2.09
44.75
1 .28
0.31
0.37
O. 13
O.24
3.4O
96.66
19.58
36.31
5.34
35.43
3.98
151 .94
7.25
81 .96
8. 19
2.33
45.76
1 .32
O.32
0.38
0. 13
O.25
3.50
99.36
19.70
37. 05
5.46
37. 15
4.06
153.31
7.46
84. OO
8.43
2.45
46. 6O
1 .36
O.33
0.38
0. 13
O.25
3.59
102. O4
19.77
37.77
5.56
38.95
4. 13
154.28
7.66
85.50
8.62
2.51
47. 18
-------
Table 9, (Continued)
General Projections of the Low Productivity Scenario (S3),
1976-1985
Statistics
1976
1977
1978
1979
198O
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
U>
Ul
Total Vehicle Kilometers
(Trill ions)
Auto
Total .Freight Metric
Ton-K11ometers
(Bill ions)
Truck
Rail
Net Air Residuals
(Mill ion Metric Tons)
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals
(Mill ion Metric Tons)
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand
Suspended Sol ids
01 solved Sol ids
Nutrients
Incremental
Air Control Costs
Investment1
Annualized Cost
Capital *
O&M
Capital in Place
Direct Employment
1
1
3
0
1
31
37
19
12
72
4
9
12
1
.68
.67
.64
.75
. 17
. 16
.51
. 11
.52
.65
.30
.99
.40
. 19
1
1
3
O
1
32
39
2O
12
74
4
10
12
1
.71
.70
.76
.78
.20
.46
.96
.08
.49
.61
.45
.28
.61
.21
1.
1.
3.
O.
1.
33.
40.
20.
12.
77.
4.
10.
12.
1 .
81
79
85
81
22
O9
48
70
76
97
61
40
87
23
1
1
3
O
1
33
4O
21
12
78
4
io
12
1
.81
.79
.94
.85
.25
.81
.85
.02
.70
.68
.71
,62
.96
.25
1
1
4
O
1
34
41
21
12
SO
4
10
13
1
.84
.82
.03
.88
.27
.56
.28
.43
.81
.24
.84
.86
.07
.27
1
1
4
O
1
35
41
21.
12,
81 .
4.
11.
13.
1 .
.87
.85
. 14
.91
.29
.05
.38
.78
.94
.83
94
00
04
29
1
1
4
O
1
35
41
22
13
84
5
11
13
1
.93
.92
.28
.96
.33
.92
.99
.42
.29
.77
.08
.25
. 17
.32
1
1
4
1
1
36
42
22
13
86
5
11
13
1
.96
.94
.39
.CO
.36
.56
.32
.85
.44
.00
. 17
.41
. 15
.34
2
1
4
1
1
37
43
23
13.
88
5.
11 .
13,
1 .
-OO
.98
.52
.04
.39
.31
.OS
.46
.72
. 11
.29
6O
19
36
2.
2.
4.
1 .
1 .
38.
43.
24.
13.
89.
5.
1 1 .
13.
1 .
03
01
65
OS
42
03
8O
03
91
54
39
76
19
38
O
O
0
0
0
0
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
0
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
0
O
O
O
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
0
0
-------
Table 9. (Continued)
General Projections of the Low Productivity Scenario (S3),
1976-1985
Statistics
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
U)
tr>
Incremental
Water Industrial Costs
Investment
AnnualIzed Costs
Capital
O&M
Capital In Place
Direct Employment
-Incremental
Water Municipal Costs
Investment
AnnualIzed Costs
Capital
O&M
Capital in Place
Direct Employment
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
0
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
0
0
0
O
O
0
0
0
0
6
O
O
0
O
0
O
O
0
0
0.
6
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
0
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
O
O
O
0
0
O
0
O
O
0
0
O
0
0
O
O
0
O
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
O
O
0
0
O
O
0
0
0
0
O
0
O
O
0
Includes s.tate transportation control costs and mobile source .pollutlon abatement expenditures.
Annual1zed to Include interest on all investments. Including those for mobile source controls.
-------
The impact of the lower productivity assumptions after 1977
is readily seen: with unemployment rates consistent with
those of the Reference .Scenario across the decade,
considerable reductions in personal consumption expenditures
are required in order to maintain full-supply 6NP. The
historical INFORUM projections of productivity are greater
than the actual 1975 factors and are nearly equal to 1977
forecasts for the Reference Scenario. The greatest
divergence in forecasts for the two scenarios occurs over
the period 1977-80, but significant change continues through
1985. The percentage .differences in the personal
consumption expenditures for 1980, 1983 and 1985 are -7.8
percent, -11.2 percent and -13.0 percent, respectively.
These changes, as well as those prior to 1980, parallel the
changes in GNP between the two scenarios. in further
comparing results from the two scenarios, the drops in
equipment and construction investment are greater than the
change in GNP in each, while total output parallels the GNP
change. The impact of these economic differences on
transportation in the Low Productivity Scenario is
significant, with the vehicle kilometers travelled reduced
by over 10 percent from 1980 to 1985. The annual reduction
in freight-metric-ton-kilometers for the period of 1977-85
is on the order of 1 percent.
The effects of the Low Productivity Scenario on material
usage, as measured by U.S. demands for iron, aluminum and
copper, follow the economic trends for the period 1980-85,
with each demand being down by about 10 percent during the
6-year period. Demands for recycled materials, as typified
by aluminum, paper products, and ferrous metals, also are
reduced. The decrease in recycled aluminum is 6 percent,
only three-fifths of the drop in demand for primary aluminum
ore. For recycled paper products, the drop in demand is
from 8.3 percent to 12.4 percent over the period 1980-85.
Energy usage also shows significant reductions. Total
usage, in quadrillion Btu's, drops from 93.6 to 89.3 in 1980
(4.6 percent drop) and from 109 to 102 (6.4 percent drop) in
1985 between the Reference Scenario and the Low Productivity
Scenario. For the Low Productivity scenario, the
contributions of coal and nuclear fuels for electric power
generation by electric utilities- are abou.t equal, with each
providing 32 percent of the source energy. Thus, although
energy demand decreases' from the Reference Scenario, the
change is only about half that of the relative decrease in
the growth of the economy and other material resources.
The impact on the air and water environmental residuals from
the Low Productivity Scenario follows the changes in
economic indicators for most listed residuals. Table 11
4-3"?
-------
w
CO
Table 1O.
Comparison of the Macro-Statistics of the
Low Productivity Scenario (S3) and the Reference Scenario (SJ_)
[(S3-S1)/S1 in %]
Statistic
Gross National Product
Disposable Income Per Capita
Total Employment
Federal Expenditures
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Total Output
Investment
Energy Use
Demand:-Iron
A1um1num
Recycling: Paper/Paperboard
Aluminum
Ferrous Metals
Vehicle Kilometers Travelled
Freight Metric Ton-Kilometers
Net. Air Residuals:
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nit rogen Ox i des
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals:
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
Suspended Sol ids
Dissolved Sol ids
Nutrients
1975
1977
1980
1983
1985
3.98
7,28
O.01
0.0
4.61
3.85
2.65
2. 10
3. 15
2.80
4.52
1 .79
1 .61
7.27
3.09
3. 18
2.49
4.01
5.41
S.43
2.77
2.70
4. 14
O.30
0.28
O.97
-O.04
0.0
0-95
0.15
-1 .50
0. 19
-0.67
-O.35
0.57
-0.17
-0.31
0.60
0.00
0.09
0.23
O.41
0.53
0.70
0.07
-O.26
O.28
-0.01
-8.39
-1O.39
-0.11
O.O
-7.77
-8.53
-13.47
-4.65
-10.78
-9.88
-8.29
-5.88
-5.3O
-10.24
-7.36
-7.63
-6.45
-7.54
-8.61
-'-1O.O5
-5.55
-7.72
-8. 19
-0.67
- 10 . 39
-14 .31
-0.20
O.O
-11 . 18
-10.30
-12.78
-5.70
-10.23
-9.97
-10.85
-5.77
-5.22
-14.47
-8.54
-8.50
-8.49
-1O.02
-11.23
-13.43
-6.76
-8.05
-10.29
-0.78
- 1 1 . 68
-16.43
-0. 10
O.O
-12.98
-11 .51
-12.78
-6.39
-10.69
-1O.6O
-12.38
-6. 19
-5.53
-16. 12
-9.36
-9.45
-9.58
-11 .51
-12.76
-15.31
-7.63
-8.75
-11 .73
-0.88
-------
shows the relative levels of net residuals, with stationary
and mobile air residual emissions reported separately.
Table 11.
Environmental Residuals from Low Productivity
Scenario (S3} as a Percentage of Reference
Scenario Residuals (SI)
(S3/S1 in %>
1977
1980
1983
1985
Air Residuals
Stationary Sources
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Air Residuals
Mobile Sources
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
100
100
100
100
99
100
100
100
101
101
92
94
94
93
91
92
93
91
91
90
92
92
92
92
91
92
92
90
89
87
91
90
90
91
90
91
90
88
87
85
water Residuals
Biochemical
Oxygen Demand
Suspended Solids
Dissolved Solids
Nutrients
100
100
100
100
94
92
92
99
93
92
90
99
92
91
88
99
The second scenario which assumes different economic
conditions, the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario, differs
from its baseline, the Low Productivity Scenario, in the
same fashion as the Abatement Scenario differs from the
Reference Scenario. Thus, a comparison of the statistics of
the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario with those of the
Low Productivity Scenario provides an impact analysis of
Federal pollution control laws and regulations, given the
low growth economic conditions.
4-39
-------
Table 12 provides the general statistics for the Low
Productivity Abatement Scenario in a form comparable to that
used for the Reference Abatement Scenario in Table 4. The
general comparative economic trends found for the Reference
Abatement Scenario continue for this scenario, with the
stimulus to economic output due to compliance with Federal
pollution control laws and regulations in evidence
throughout the decade, as shown in Table 13. Through 1980,
there is sufficiently high unemployment in the Low
Productivity Scenario so that the additional labor force
required for abatement is available. After that time,
however, small diversions of labor from competing sources of
employment are required.
4-40
-------
Table 12.
General Projections of the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario (S4),
1976-1985
Statistics
Population (Minions)
Labor Force (Millions)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Disposable Income
Per Capita (1.OOO 1975 $)
Gross National Product
(Trill1on 1975 $)
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Investment
Government Expenditures
Federal
Other
Total Output
(Trill ion 1975 $)
Total Energy Use
(Quadrillion Btu's)
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Electricity
U.S. Demand
(Million Metric Tons)
Copper
Iron
A1 urn 1 num
Recycled Materials
(Million Metric Tons)
Paper/Paperboard
A1urn1num
Ferrous Metals
1976
215.8O
95.4O
6.50
5.91
1 .65
1977
217.7O
97.0O
5.40
6. 13
1 .72
1978
219.8O
98. SO
4.60
6,49
1 .77
1979
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
221.9O 224.1O226.4O228.7O231.OO233 4O235.7O
1OO.20 1O1 .8O1O3.2O104.5O1O5.-7O106.701O7.7O
4.40 4.5O 4.4O 4. 3O 4.3O 4.3O 4.2O
6.61 6.75 6.92 7.O3 7.12 7.21 7.29
1.81 1.86 1.91 1.96 - 2.OO 2 .04 2 .09
1 .01
0.29
O.33
O. 12
O.21
2.76
84.59
2O. 11
33.35
4.90
26. 16
3.51
152.22
6.O4
68.23
6.47
1 .54
39.56
1.O5
0.30
O.34
0. 12
0.22
2.89
87. 19
19.75
33.81
5. 16
28.47
3.76
157. O3
6.4O
71 .03
6.77
1 .68
41 .03
1.11
O.29
0.35
O. 12
O.23
2.98
88.98
19.83
34.22
5.11
29.83
3.77
150. 18
6.41
72.36
7.09
1.69
41 .31
1. 14
O.30
0.35
O. 12
0.23
3.O7
9O.74
19.85
34.69
5.11
31 .08
3.76
149.48
6.55
74. OS
7.31
1 .82
42. 01
1.18 1.22 1.26 1.29 1.32 t-36
0.31 O.31 O.32 O.32 O.32 O.33
0.36 O.36 0:37 O.38. 0.39 O.39
O.12 0.13 0.13 O.13 Q.14' 0.14
O.23 0.24 0.24 O.25 6.25 O.26
3.16 3.26 3. 3S 3.43 3.52 3.61
92.44 95.07 t97.661O0.321O3.28l£>6V2t
19.87 20.O1 2O.11 20,2O 2O.3~6 42O.46
35.1O 35.95 36.76 37. 54 38.35 39,13
5.14 5.25 5.33 5.43 5.52: 5\62
32.33 33.86 35.46 37.15 39. OS 41. OO
3.78 3.83 3.94 4.O2 '4.O6 4.13
149.56150,42150. 1415O.i6615O. 761S1-.56
6.72 6.91 7. 1O 7.28 7.44 7.63
76. O1 78.25 8O.15 82.26 84. OS 85.68
7.53 7.78 8.OO 8,20 8.4O 8.60
1.98 2.16 2. 1O 2.34 2.45 2.52
42.85 43.87 44.93 45.96 46.72 47.35
-------
Table 12, (Continued)
General Projections of the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario (S4),
1976-1985
Statistics
Total Vehicle Kilometers
(Trill ions)
Auto
Total Freight Metric
Ton-K i1oroeters
(Bill ions)
Truck
Rail
Net Air Residuals
(Million Metric Tons)
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals
(Mill1on Metric Tons)
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand
Suspended Solids
Dissolved Sol ids
Nutrients
Incremental
Air Control Costs
(Billion 19^5 $)
Investment'
Annual1zed Costs
Capital'
O&M
Capital in Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands)
1976
1977
1978
1979 198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
1.70
1 .69
3.77
0.78
1.22
13. 18
19.87
19.31
10.49
58.55
3,24
6.7O
11 .91
1.14
1
1
3
0
1
8
14
20
9
53
2
4
11
1
.74
.72
.91
.82
.25
.33
.77
.08
.65
.58
.77
.87
.65
. 14
1
1
3
0
1
8
15
20
9
49
2
2
11
1
.81
.80
.98
.84
.27
.35
.07
.46
.27
.76
.24
.82
.36
.12
1
1
4
0
1
8
15
20
8
44
2
2
11
1
.82
.80
.05
.87
.28
.35
.30
.52
.71
.54
. 17
.77
.38
.12
1 .83
1 .82
4.12
0.90
1.30
8.44
15.53
20.62
8.24
39.85
2. 1O
2.73
11 ,4O
1.12
1 .89
1 .87
4.25
0.94
1.33
8.59
15.82
20.88
7.90
36.85
1.92
2.4O
10.47
1.12
1.92
1,91
4.37
0.98
1.36
7.81
16. OO
21.28
7.29
31. 'OS
1.72
2.04
9.58
1.12
1 .95
1.94
4,49
1.O2
1 .39
7.OO
16.20
21 .58
6.67
28.19
1.51
1.67
8.76
1.12
1 ,98
1.97
4,61
1.06
1 .42
6.13
16.48
21 .83
6.14
23.99
1.29
1 .29
8,05
1.12
2.01
2.00
4.74
1.11
1.45
5.27
16.77
22. 16
5.61
21.44
1. 19
1 .21
8.23
1.12
8.28 9.06 9.91 6.53 6.37 6.54 6.68 6.78 6.76 6.66
7.54 8.80 11.04 12.76 14.31 15.51 16.69 17.53 18.12 18.46
8,80 8.25 8.2O 8.90 9.43 9,84 10.28 1O.7O 11.11 11.50
39.90 46.21 54.91 60.34 64.81 68.60 71.83 74.46 76.41 77.57
15 17 19 20 20 20 19 19 19 18
-------
Table 12. (Continued)
General Projections of the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario (54),
1976-1985
Statistics 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Incremental
Water Industrial Costs
(B1111on 1975 $)
Investment 4.31 6.27 3.38 2.55 4.37 4.42 S.91 5.46 1.53 1.19
Annual1zed Costs
** Capital 2.O6 2.89 3.32 3.65 4.22 4.79 5.56 6.27 6.45 6.59
j, O&M 3.75 5.O3 5.76 5.95 6.12 6.34 6.59 6.85 9.95 1O.29
W Capital 1n Place 15.69 21.95 25.27 27.76 32.07 36.43 42.27 47.67 49.O6 5O.12
Direct Employment
(Thousands) 117 157 18O 186 192 199 2O6 215 328 339
Incremental
Water Municipal Costs
(B111 ion 1975 $)
Investment 6.55 8.11 8.13 5.59 2.94 1.77 O.8O O.7O O.7O 0.53
Annualized Costs
Capital 2.28 3.18 4.07 4.69 5.01 5.21 5.30 5.37 5.45 5.51
O&M O.68 O.93 1.36 1.61 1.76 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.OO
Capital in Place 2O.74 28.85 36.99 42.57 45.51 47.28 48.08 48.78 49.48 SO.O1
Direct Employment
(Thousands) 2O 28 40 48 52 54 56 57 58 59
1 Includes state transportation control costs and mobile source pollution abatement expenditures.
* Annualized to Include interest on all investments. Including those for mobile source controls.
-------
13.
I
rf»
tr-
Comparison of the Macro-Statistics of the Low
Productivity Abatement Scenario (S4) and the Low Productivity Scenario (S3)
[(S4-S3)/S3 1n X]
Statistic
Gross National Product
Disposable Income Per Capita
Total Employment
Federal Expenditures
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Total Output
Investment
Energy Use
Demand: Iron
A1um1num
Recycl1ng: Paper/Paperboard
Aluminum
Ferrous Metals
Vehicle Kilometers Travelled
Freight Metric Ton-Kilometers
Net A1r Residuals:
PartIculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals:
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
Suspended Sol Ids
Dissolved Sol Ids
Nutrients
1975
1977
198O
1983 1985
1 ,
0.
0.
0.
0.
2.
6.
3.
3.
3.
O.
2.
1 .
O.
3.
-41 .
-31 .
-
-
-
-
0.
13.
18.
11 .
14.
-0.
-1 .
89
07
94
23
56
24
99
76
86
27
68
03
66
07
49
74
87
00
63
96
81
24
97
97
2
1
1
1
1
3
7
4
4
4
1
2
2
1
4
-67
-63
-0
-22
.76
.29
.83
.07
. 16
.11
.45
.22
.83
.41
.65
.65
.20
.29
.OO
.07
.03
.03
.71
-28.06
-37
-52
-7
-6
.72
.62
.54
. 16
O
-o
0
2
O
1
2
3
0
1
0
0
.79
.18
.67
.22
. 13
.07
.46
.57
.12
.06
. 17
.57
O.35
-O
2
-77
-62
-3
-35
-50
-56
-74
-12
-11
.98
.25
.58
.37
.81
.66
.34
.54
.83
.77
.80
O
-0
O
2
O
O
1
3
-o
O
O
0
O
-0
2
-8O
-61
-S
-50
-67
-7O
-85
-33
-16
.60
.06
.44
.20
. 18
.85
.41
.78
.84
.52
.08
.39
.42
.06
.28
.85
.71
.57
.41
.22
.72
.36
.39
.38
O
-0
O
2
-O
0
-O
4
-1
-O
-0
0
o
-o
2
-86
-61
-7
-59
-76
-77
-89
-37
-19
.06
.63
.21
. 15
. 16
.39
.32
.08
.77
.29
.24
.07
.37
.63
.16
. 15
.72
.78
.68
.06
.SO
.69
.65
.20
-------
The relative impact of pollution control expenditures for
the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario are shown in Table
14, which presents these costs as a percentage of the Low
productivity Scenario GNP. These proportions can be
compared with similar data for the Reference Case given in
Table 6.
Table 14.
incremental Pollution Control Costs as a Percentage
of Low Productivity Scenario GNP
Air Stationary
Source Costs
Annual Capital Cost
O&M Cost
water Industrial Costs
1977 1980 1983 1985 1976-85
0.29 0.34 0.31 0.31 0.30
0.26 0.29 0.26 0.25 0.27
Annual Capital Cost
O&M Cost
Water Municipal Costs
Annual Capital Cost
O&M Cost
0.17 0.23 0.31 0.32 0.24
0.29 0.33 0.34 0.49 0.35
0.19 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.25
0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.08
Comparing the statistics of Tables 6 and 14 demonstrates
that the relative level of impact at the macroeconomic level
is similar for the two cases.. Hence, over the range of
economic growth bounded by these situations, the level of
direct economic impact of pollution control legislation
appears to be reasonably constant. The indirect impacts
also are similar in terms of increased employment levels for
each abatement scenario as compared to its non-abatement
scenario.
Tables 15 and 16 provide aggregate pollutant treatment
projections for the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario that
are comparable to the Reference Abatement Scenario values of
Tables 7 and 8. As can be noted, the treatment efficiencies
are comparable, with consistent trends for all residuals.
This suggests that the level of economic output has no major
effect on aggregate treatment levels.
4-45
-------
In a similar vein, the changes in material and energy usage
between the non-abatement and the abatement scenarios are
similar to the economic patterns for each case. Thus, in
terms of macroeconomic impacts, the introduction of
Federally imposed pollution controls produces comparable
effects for the high economic growth Reference Abatement
Scenario and the low economic growth Low Productivity
Abatement Scenario.
4-46
-------
Table 15.
Relative Stationary Source Treatment Efflciences of
Selected Pollutants for the Low Productivity
and Low Productivity Abatement Scenarios
(Efficiencies 1n Percent of Residuals Removed)
**
-j
1975
1980
A1r Residuals
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Water Residuals
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand
Suspended Solids
Dissolved Sol Ids
Nutrients
Low
Productivity
73.6
23.8
O.2
39.3
461. 6
68.4
82.8
31 .0
35.9
Low
Productivity
Abatement
85.3
51.1
2.5
50.6
62.3
72.4
85.8
33.7
37.8
Low
Productivity
74.2
24. 0
O.2
4O.3
47.3
68.0
83.2
32.5
37.8
1985
Low Low Low
Productivity Productivity Productivity
Abatement Abatement
94.1 73.8 97.0
7.3.0 23.9 72.5
5.6 O.3 5.7
59.5 42.3 71.2
73.5 48.6 76.8
86. 1
96.0
43.7
46.3
67.9
83.7
35.0
39.2
92.9
98.4
61.4
52.3
-------
Table 16.
Passenger Transportation Emission Levels for the Low Productivity
and Low Productivity Abatement Scenarios
(Metric Tons per Million Vehicle Kilometers Travelled)
I
*.
CD
A1r Residuals
PartIculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
1975
Low
Productivity
0.22
O.O8
1.94
2.65
22.05
Low
Productivity
Abatement
0.18
O.O8
1.82
2.28
17.92
198O
LOW
Productivity
O.21
O.O8
1 .92
2.21
22.29
1985
Low Low Low
Productivity Productivity Productivity
Abatement Abatement
0.16 0.21 0.14
0.08 O.O8 O.O8
t.60 1.91 1.11
1.25 2.13 0.53
10.48 22.48 3.65
-------
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE
ENERGY CONSERVATION SCENARIOS
To further explore the possible variations in pollution
control costs because of different assumptions about
conditions and policies in the future, a pair of scenarios
was constructed which approximated energy usage forecasts in
the Federal Energy Administration's "Business-as-Usual-with-
Conservation" scenario, where the price of imported oil is
$11 per barrel. In this analysis, it was assumed that this
reduction in energy use could be achieved by the following
actions:
1. Reduced household energy consumption for space-
heating and cooling by using improved insulation and
higher summer and lower winter thermostat settings.
2. Reduced per capita gasoline use through increased
carpooling, increased use of mass transit, and
improved auto fuel consumption efficiency.
3. A reduction in the interindustry fossil fuel use
coefficients (energy input required to produce one
unit of output) for energy-intensive products by
substitution of less energy-intensive inputs. These
reductions include: shifts to returnable beverage
containers, reductions in the use of artificial
fertilizers, reduced use of packaging materials, and
some recycling of energy-intensive materials.
4. Miscellaneous changes to reflect improved energy
housekeeping activities in certain industries.
The first of the Energy Conservation scenarios, without the
Federally imposed pollution controls, is denoted as the
Energy Scenario. The second, which introduces the effects
of pollution control in the same way as for the other two
abatement scenarios, is the Energy Abatement Scenario.
A set of output statistics for the Energy Scenario is
provided in Table 17. Some of the major economic factors
are compared to Reference Scenario values in ^able 18. The
differences which occur are present even though'the primary
factors that alter GNP, the final demand accounts of
personal consumption expenditures and Federal expenditures,
were held at the same levels for the Reference and the
Energy Scenarios (and also were held constant for the
Reference Abatement and Energy Abatement Scenarios). Thus,
the impacts are solely a result of purchase changes due to
4-49
-------
energy conservation measures introduced in the Energy
Conservation case.
4-50
-------
Table 17.
Genera) Projections of the Energy Scenario (S5),
1976-198S
Statistics
Population (Millions)
Labor Force (Millions)
Unemployment Rate (54)
Disposable Income
Per Capita (1,000 1975 $)
Gross National Product
(Trillion 1975 $)
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Investment
Government Expend1tures
Federa1
Other
Total Output
(Trill ion 1975 $)
Total Energy Use
(Quadrillion Btu's)
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Electricity
U.S. Demand
(Million Metric Tons)
Copper
Iron
Aluminum
Recycled Materials
(Million Metric Tons)
Paper/Paperboard
Aluminum
Ferrous Metals
1976
215. 8O
95. 4O
7.9O
5.62
1.56
1977
217. 7O
97. OO
6.9O
5.99
1.67
1978
219. SO
98. 6O
5. SO
6.61
1.78
1979
198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
0.97
0.26
0.32
0. 12
0.2O
2.61
76.55
18.81
28. 7O
4.59
24.45
3.18
141.37
5.65
65.78
6. 19
1.48
38.25
1.03
O.29
0.33
O. 12
0.21
2.81
79.36
18. 7O
29.24
4.89
26.53
3.53
150.67
6. 16
69.83
6.64
1.64
40.31
1.12
O.29
0.34
0. 12
O.22
3.OO
81.66
19.07
29.67
4.99
27.93
3.72
149.67
6.44
72.93
7.18
1.70
41.41
221.9O 224.1Q6.40228.7O231.OO233.4O235.70
1OO.2O 1O1.8O1O3.2O1O4.SO1O5.7O1O6.7O1O7.7O
5.2O 4.7O 5.1O 4.60 4.4O 4.3O 4.2O
7.O4
7.54 7.74 8.07 8.31 8.53 8.78
1.9O
1 . 19
0.32
O.35
O. 12
O.23
2.
1.
O.
O.
O.
O.
O2
28
35
36
12
24
2.
1.
0.
O.
0.
O.
08
33
35
37
12
25
2.
1.
O.
O.
O.
0.
16
39
36
38
13
25
2.
1 .
O.
0.
0.
O.
23
45
36
39
13
26
2..
1.
O.
0.
O.
O.
ao
51
37
40
13
27
2.37
1 .56
O.38
0.41
O.14
O.27
3.21 3.43 3.54 3.67 3.80 3.93 4.O5
84.26 86.8O 88.47 9O.31 92.14 94.OO 95.7O
19.43 19.79 19.88 2O.O6 2O.21 20.39 2O.53
3O.18 3O.61 3O.81 31.O2 31.24 31.44 31.57
5.24 5.48 5.57 5.66 5.76 5.88 6.OO
29.40 30.91 32.21 33.58 34.93 36.30 37.61
3.92 4.12 4.17 4.25 4.33 4.41 4.47
159.22 167.68167.16166.23166.54167.33168.34
6.92 7.41 7.56 7.69 7.86 8.O4 8.22
76.97 81.22 82.16 85.32 87.66 89.73 91.52
7.69 8.23 8.52 8.88 9.21 9.54 9.87
f.88 2.O9 2.27 2.19 2.41 2.52 2.57
43.23 45.10 45.98 46.93 47.88 48.60 49.17
-------
Table 17. (Continued)
General Projections of the Energy Scenario (55),
1976-1985
U!
to
Statistics
Total Vehicle Kilometers
(Trillions)
Auto
Total Freight Metric
Ton-Kilometers
(Bill Ions)
Truck
Rail
Net Air Residuals
(Mill ion Metric Tons)
Participates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals
(Ml 11 ion
Metric Tons)
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand
Suspended Solids
Dissolved Solids
Nutrients
1976
1977
1978
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
1 .49
1 .47
3.52
0.73
1 . 14
30.09
35.79
18. O4
11 .30
64,65
4.23
9.77
1 1 .99
1.19
1 .
1.
3.
O.
1 .
32.
38.
19.
11
67.
4.
10.
12.
1 .
54
53
77
79
,21
11
66
32
.49
,73
,45
31
47
21
1
1
3
0
1
33
39
2O
11
72
4
10
13
1
.66
.64
.94
.84
.26
.49
.76
.30
.94
.33
.69
.69
.04
.23
1 .73
1.71
4.16
0.90
1.32
34.37
41.01
21 .21
12.24
75.77
4.9O
11.23
13.57
1 .26
1 .82
1 .80
4.39
O.96
1.38
36.93
42.32
22.21
12.66
79.75
5.14
11.79
14. 10
1 .28
1.86
1.83
4.50
1.00
1.41
37. SO
42.39
22.63
12.76
81 .56
5.25
11 .95
14. 14
1 .30
1 .93
1.9O
4.64
1 .04
1 ,45
37.21
42.65
23.26
13.07
84.61
5.40
12. 14
14.26
1 .33
1 .99
1.96
4.79
1 .09
1 .48
37.93
42.92
23. 8O
13.29
86.86
5.53
12.34
14.35
1 .35
2.03
2.00
4.93
1.14
1.52
39.73
43.24
24.36
13.52
88.89
5.67
12.55
14.41
1 .37
2.08
2.05
5.08
1 . 19
1 .S6
4O.5O
43. 5O
24.93
13.76
91 .23
5.81
12.76
14.45
1 .40
-------
Table 17. (Continued)
General Projections of the Energy Scenario (S5),
1976-1985
0
o
0
o
o
o
0
0
o
o
0
0
0
0
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
0
o
0
o
o
0
o
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o
o
0
0
o
0
o
o
o
o
0
o
Statistics 1976 1977 1978 1979 198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Incremental
A1r Control Costs
(Billion 1975$)
Investment'
Annualized Costs
Capital"
OSM
Capital in Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands)
Incremental
Water Industrial Costs
(Billion 1975 $)
Investment
Annual1zed Costs
Capital
OSM
Capital 1n Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands)
Incremental
Water Municipal Costs
(Bill ion 1975 $)
Investment
Annual1zed Costs
Capital
O&M
Capital m Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands) 0 0 0 OOOOOOO
' Includes state transporatlon control costs and mobile source pollution abatement expenditures,
' Annualized to include Interest on all Investments, Including those for mobile source controls.
0
0
0
o
0
0
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
o
0
0
0
0
0
0
o
o
o
0
o
o
0
0
0
0
o
o
0
o
0
o
o
0
o
o
o
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
0
o
o
0
o
o
0
0
o
0
0
0
0
o
0
0
0
o
o
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
o
o
0
o
o
0
o
o
o
0
0
o
o
o
0
o
-------
Table 18.
Summary of Major Economic
Factors of the Energy Scenario
as Compared to the -Reference Scenario
.1975 1977 1980 1983 1985
GHP
(Bill.ion 1975 $}
Energy 1,470 1,669 2,020 2,227 2,370
Reference 1,470 1,665 2,012 2,221 2,365
Difference 0 +4 +8 +6 +5
Employment
(Millions)
Energy 86.1 90.4 97.1 101.1 103.2
Reference 86.1 90.3 96.8 100.9 103.1
Difference 0 +0.1 +0.3 +0.2 +0.1
investment
(Billion 1975 $)
Energy 221 285 345 362 377
Reference 221 286 344 364 381
Difference 0 -1 1 -2 -4
Net Exports
(Billion 1975 $)
Energy 10.5 11.3 8.6 6.2 1.2
Reference 10.6 7.7 1.6 -2.6 -8.9
Difference -0.1 3.6 7.0 8.8 10.1
It can be seen that the major factor in raising SNP between
the Energy Scenario and the Reference Scenario is increased
net exports and that, for several years, the level of
investment expenditures actually declines slightly. To
achieve increased net exports, both imports and exports
fall, with imports decreasing at a faster rate. Turning to
total output, for most years the output of the Energy
Scenario is about 0.1 to 0.3 percent higher than the
Reference Scenario,- however, the pattern is erratic. This
induces similar increases in employment, as shown in Table
18.
To analyze changes in energy and material consumption
between the two scenarios, Table 19 provides annual usage
comparisons for petroleum, coal, electricity, iron ore,
aluminum, and copper. (Note that petroleum and coal data in
4-54
-------
Table 19 include use in generating electricity. Table 17
figures do not include this factor in order to avoid double-
counting in energy accounting.). The trends for usage of
these forms of energy and materials are consistant with the
variations in assumptions for the scenarios. Petroleum
demand, coal demand, and electricity demand for the Energy
Scenario decline in 1985 by approximately 21, 11, and 8.5
percent, respectively, when compared to the Reference
Scenario. Slight decreases in use of iron, aluminum and
copper are noted with no decline greater than 5 percent,
which is consistent with the variation in total output.
4-55
-------
Table 19.
Comparison of Energy & Material Usage
Between the Reference and Energy Scenarios
1975 1977 1980 1983 1985
Petroleum (Btu's
Quadrillions)
Energy 32.1 33.8 36.1 37.2 37.9
Reference 34.3 37.2 41.4 45.0 47.6
Difference -2.2 -3.4 -5.3 -7.8 -9.7
Coal (Btu's
Quardrillions)
Energy 13.8 16.6 17.7 17.6 17.6
Reference 13.9 17.0 18.4 19.0 19.8
Difference -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.4 -2.2
Electricity (Btu's
Quadrillions)
Energy 22.5 26.5 30.9 34.9 37.6
Reference 22.8 27.3 32.1 37.1 41.1
Difference -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -2.2 -3.5
iron Ore (Million
Metric Tons)
Energy 129 151 168 167 168
Reference 129 151 167 169 173
Difference 0 0-1-2 -5
Aluminum (Million
Metric Tons)
Energy 5.1 6.2 7.4 7.9 8.2
Reference 5.1 6.2 7.4 8.0 8.6
Difference 0 0 0 -0.1 -0.4
Copper (Million
Metric Tons)
Energy 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.5
Reference 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.5
Difference 0 0 0-0.1 0
4-56
-------
As a final comparison of the effects of energy conservation,
Table 20 provides the level of environmental residuals
produced in the Energy Scenario relative to those produced
in the Reference Scenario.
Table 20.
Environmental Residuals from Energy Scenario (S5)
as a Percentage of Reference Scenario Residuals (SI)
(S5/S1 in %>
Air Residuals
1975
1977
1980
1983
1985
Air Residuals
Stationary sources
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
99
98
98
95
98
99
97
97
95
99
99
96
96
92
98
98
93
93
89
96
96
89
89
87
95
Air Residuals
Mobile Sources
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
95
98
95
92
92
95
101
96
91
90
95
103
96
89
88
94
104
95
87
86
95
105
94
86
85
Water Residuals
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand 100 100 100 100 99
Suspended Solids 100 100 100 99 99
Dissolved Solids 100 99 99 98 97
Nutrients 100 100 100 100 100
in general, for water residuals, little impact is noted
since the energy conservation assumptions do not cause major
variations in output for the industries that produce the
majority of water pollutants. The reduction in mobile
source emissions is consistent with the major reduction in
auto mileage and concomitant small increases in mass transit
and small decreases in freight transportation.
4-57
-------
The major impact of the Energy Scenario on residuals is in
stationary source air emissions. All five air residuals,
participates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons,
and carbon monoxide, show significantly lover levels over
time. The lesser reductions for particulates and carbon
monoxide are due to a mixed reaction in the output levels of
six major producing sectors.
In summary, the Energy Conservation Scenario assumptions
produce major effects on energy and material consumption and
on air pollution emissions when compared to the Reference
Scenario. Remaining statistics for the two scenarios show
only minor effects when the two are compared.
The effects of the pollution control regulations under the
Energy conservation Case assumptions are provided by
comparing the Energy Abatement Scenario with its
predecessor, the Energy Scenario. The general output
statistics for the Energy Abatement Scenario are given in
Table 21 while Table 22 compares the results of Energy
Abatement Scenario with those of the Energy Scenario. As in
the other scenario pairs, the scenario that includes the
pollution control costs and purchases generates higher
employment, GNP and total output for all forecast years.
The differences are greatest for the years 1975 and 1977
when the available labor force is sufficient to provide for
the increased resources needed for abatement controls
without diverting labor from competing employment
opportunities. By 1985, Energy Abatement Scenario forecasts
are greater than those of the Energy Scenario by 0.16
percent for GNP, 0.54 percent for total output and 0.26
percent for total employment.
Table 23 presents various pollution control costs as a
percentage of Energy Scenario GNP. Comparing these
percentages with the values given in Table 6 and fable 14
again reveals the relative impact insensitivity over the
range of assumptions provided in this macroeconomic/energy
analysis.
4-58
-------
Table 21.
General Projections of the Energy Abatement Scenario (SB),
1976-1985
l*»
tn
Statistics
Population (Millions)
Labor Force (Millions)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Disposable Income
Per Capita (1.0OO 1975 $)
Gross National Product
(Trill1on 1975 $)
Personal Consumption
Expendltures
Investment
Government Expenditures
Federal
Other
Total Output
(TM11 ion 1975 $)
Total Energy Use
(Quadrillion Btu's)
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Electricity
U.S. Demand
(Million Metric Tons)
Copper
Iron
Aluminum
Recycled Materials
(Million
(Million Metric Tons)
Paper/Paperboard
A1urn1num
Ferrous Matals
1976
215.80
95.4O
6.3O
5.62
1.59
1977
217.70
97.00
5.2O
5.99
1.7O
1978
219.8O
98.6O
4.0O
6.53
1 .81
1979
198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
227.19 224.aO6.4O228.7O231.OO233.4O235.7O
1O0.2O 1O1.8O1O3.2O1O4.5O1O5.70106.7O1O7.7O
4.1O 4.60 4.6O 4.5O 4.2O 4.OO 4.OO
7.OO 7.46 7.69 8.OO 8.25 8.48 8.7O
1.91 2.O2 2.O9 2.16 2.23 2.30 2.37
O.97
0.27
O.32
O.12
O.2O
2.66
79.42
19.38
30. CO
4.78
25.26
3.30
145.45
5.81
66.59
6.23
1.51
38.79
1.03
0.30
0.34
0. 12
0.22
2.86
82.36
19.31
30.37
5. 12
27.57
3.67
155.58
6,34
7O.71
6.68
1.67
4O.81
1.12
O.30
O.35
0. 12
O.23
3.O6
85.52
19.76
30.88
5.24
29.27
3.85
155.71
6.63
73.84
7.23
1.73
42. 04
1.19
0.33
0.36
O. 12
0.24
3.24
87. 4O
20.05
31.21
5.41
30.73
4.O4
161.96
7,05
77.46
7.69
1.90
43.64
1.27 1.33 1.39 1.45 1.51 1.56
O.35 O.36 O.36 0.37 O.37 0.38
O.37 O.38 O.39 O.4O 0.41 O.42
O.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 O. 14
0.25 O.25 O.26 O.27 0.27 O.28
3.44 3.56 3.68 3.81 3.95 4.08
89.71 91.85 93.69 95.91 98.321OO.39
26.34 2O. 52 2O. 67 20.90 21. 2O 21.39
31.55 31.92 32.14 32 . 5O 32.86 33.11
5.57 5.67 5.73 5.84 5.95 6.08
32.25 33.74 35.15 36.67 38.31 39.81
4.18 4.23 4.3O 4.37 4.44 4.49
166.59166.43164.31164.42164,80165.95
7,44 7.61 7.72 7.88 8.O5 8.23
81.15 83.32 85.26 87. 7O 89.82 91.89
8.18 8.51 8.84 9.19 9.53 9.85
2. 1O 2.28 2. 2O 2.42 2.52 2.57
45.19 46.12 47.OO 47.97 48.72 49.34
-------
Table 21. (Continued)
General Projections of the Energy Abatement Scenario (56);
1976-1985
s
Statistics
Total Vehicle Kilometers
(Trillions)
Auto
Total Freight Metric
Ton-K1lometers
(B1111ons)
Truck
Rail
Net' Air Residuals
(Million Metric Tons)
Partlculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Net Water Residuals
(Mill Ion Metric Tons)
Biochemical Oxvflen
Demand
Suspended Solids
Dissolved Solids
Nutrients
Incremental
Air Control Costs
(Billion 197S $)
Investment'
AnnualIzed Costs
Capital»
O&M
Capital In Place
Direct Employment
(Thousands)
1976
1977
1978
1979 198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
1
1
3
O
1
12
18
18
9
51
3
6
11
1
.49
.47
.63
.75
.17
.56
.82
,O1
.41
.43
.18
.50
.41
. 14
1 .
1 .
3.
0.
1.
8.
14.
19.
8.
48.
2.
4.
11 .
1.
54
53
89
81
25.
13
16
18
76
12
76
84
4O
14
1.
1.
4.
0.
1.
8.
14.
20.
8.
45.
2.
2.
11.
1.
64
62
O7
87
30
45
82
05
58
69
26
86
45
12
1
1
4
O
1
8
15
2O
8
42
2
2
11
1
.72
.70
.26
.92
.35
.74
.36
.66
.31
.80
.23
.88
.79
. 12
1
1
4
0
1
9
15
21
8
39
2
2
12
1
.SO
.78
.45
.97
.40
.03
.94
.30
.06
.79
.20
.89
. 14
. 13
1
1
4
1
1
9
16
21
7
35
2
2
11
1
.85
.82
.58
.02
.44
.19
.23
.59
.69
.89
.00
.52
. 17
. 13
1
1
4
1
1
8
16
22
7
31
1
2
1O
1
.92
.89
.71
.06
.47-
.33
.38
.06
.13
.65
.80
.15
.25
.13
1
1
4
1
1
7
16
22
6
28
1
1
9
1
.97
.94
.87
. 11
.51
.49
.60
.46
.56
.41
.59
.75
.44
. 12
2
1
5
1
.01
.98
.03
. 16
1,55
6
16
22
6
25
1
1
8
1
.59
.86
.75
.07
.05
.37
.33
.70
.12
2.O6
2. 02
5. 19
1 .21
1.59
5.67
17.05
23.04
5.58
22. 7O
1 .27
1 .26
8.9O
1 . 12
6.31
7.31
8.72
37.48
14
8.40
8.58
8.09
44. 14
17
10.82
10.96
8.11
53.75
18
8.18 7.12 7.O4 6.76 6.69 6.66 6.85
12.83
8.97
60.82
2O
14.48 15.85 16.93 17.76 18.34 18.70
9.67 1O.2O 1O.62 11.03 11.45 11.89
66.04 70.34 73.65 76.19 78.04 79.40
21 21 21
20 2O 19
-------
Table 21. (Continued)
General Projections of the Energy Abatement Scenario (S6).
1976-1985
Statistics 1976 1977 1978 1979 198O 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Incremental
Water Industrial Costs
(Bill ion 1975 $)
Investment 3.47 5.62 3-24 5.15 6.40 5.6O 6.65 5.18 1.3O 1.53
Annual1zed Costs
Capital 1.97 2.71 3.13 3.80 4.63 5.36 6.22 6.9O 7.OS 7.24
I O&M 3.63 4.89 5.85 6.32 6.71 7.O4 7.24 7.51 1O.67 11.1O
0} Capital 1n Place 14.99 20.60 23.78 28.87 35.21 4O.75 47.35 52,46 53.63 55.O3
Direct Employment
(Thousands) 114 15O 183 198 21O 220 227 235 35O 365
Incremental
Water Municipal Costs
(Bill ion 1975 $)
Investment 6.55 8.11 8.13 5.59 2.94 1.77 O.8O 0.7O O.7O O.53
Annual Ized Costs
Capital 2.28 3.18 4.07 4.69 5.O1 5.21 5.30 5.37 5.45 5.51
O&M 0.68 0.93 1.36 1.61 1.76 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.0O
Capital 1n Place 2O.74 28.85 36.99 42.57 45.51 47.28 48.O8 48.78 49.48 SO.01
Direct Employment
(Thousands) 2O .28 40 43 52 54 56 57 58 59
1 Includes-state transportation control costs and mobile source pollution abatement expenditures.
' Annual1zed to Include Interest on all Investments, Including those for moblFe source controFs.
-------
Table 22.
Comparison of the Macro Statistics of the Energy Abatement
Scenario (S6) and the Energy Scenario (55)
[(S6-S5)/S5 In %]
Statistic 1975 1977 198O 1983 1985
Gross National Product 1.97 1.74 O.10 O.22 O. 16
Disposable Income Per Capita O.OO O.OO -O.95 -O.82 -1.19
Total Employment 2.O4 1.86 0.14 O.26 O.26
Federal Expenditures O.24 1.07 2.24 2.2O 2.17
Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.59 O.33 -O.7O -O.22 -O.12
Total Output 2.33 2.O7 O.34 O.5O O.54
I Investment 6.11 5.24 1.79 O.94 O.38
<* Energy Use 3.98 3.78 3.35 4.O9 4.89
Demand: Iron 3.99 3.26 -O.65 -1.27 -1.42
Aluminum 3.42 3.O2 0.48 O.3O O. 19
Recycling: Paper/Paperboard 0.71 0.68 -O.64 -0.25 -O.15
Aluminum 2.13 1.18 0.22 O.22 O.21
Ferrous Metals 1.7O 1.46 O.19 O.18 O.35
Vehicle Kilometers Travelled O.OO O.OO -O.95 -O.82 -1.23
Freight Metric Ton-Kilometers 3.6O 3.O5 1.88 1.80 2.13
Net A1r Residuals:
Partlculates -41.19 -74.69 -75.54 -8O.25 -86.OO
Sulfur Oxides -32.67 -63.4O -62.34 -61.32 -60.81
Nitrogen Oxides -1.63 -2.OO -4.12 -7.8O -7.61
Hydrocarbons -13.37 -23.93 -36.35 -5O.69 -59.48
Carbon Monoxide -19.05 -29.14 -50.11 -67.29 -75.12
Net Water Residuals:
Biochemical Oxygen Demand -11.70 -38.05 -57.26 -71.25 -78.O7
Suspended Solids -14.15 -53.O7 -75.46 -85.83 -9O.11
Dissolved Solids -O.85 -8.61 -13.88 -34.22 -38.38
Nutrients -1.96 -6.20 -11.99 -16.62 -19.45
-------
Table 23.
Incremental Pollution control Costs as a
Percentage of Energy Scenario GNP
1977 1980 1983 1985 1976-85
Air Stationary
Source Costs
Annual Capital Cost 0.28 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.29
O&M Cost 0,26 0.28 0.25 0.24 0.26
Water Industrial Costs
Annual Capital Cost 0.16 0.23 0.31 0.30 0.24
O&M Cost 0.28 0.33 0.34 0.47 0.35
Water Municipal Costss
Annual Capital Cost 0.19 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.22
O&M Cost 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.07
The effects of the energy conservation assumptions on
environmental residuals are provided as annual average
treatment efficiencies and emission levels in Tables 24 and
25. These values again show about the same changes in
treatment efficiencies, although the changes are slightly
different here than in the Reference Abatement and Low
Productivity Abatement Scenarios. This difference results
primarily from the greater variability introduced into the
interindustry flows by the energy conservation measures.
Thus, for data concerning the level of economic activity and
level of energy usage in the three major scenario pairs, the
difference at the macroeconomic level between the scenarios
without . abatement effects and those with abatement effects
appear quite similar.
4-63
-------
Table 24.
Relative Stationary Source Treatment Efficiencies
of Selected Pollutants for the Energy and Energy Abatement Scenarios
(Efficiencies In Percent of Residuals Removed)
1975
198O
1985
Air Residuals
PartIculates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Water Residuals
Biochemical Oxygen
Demand
Suspended Solids
Dissolved Sol.lds
Nutrients
Energy
73.6
23.5
O.2
38.2
45.7
68.6
82.7
30.9
35.2
Energy
Abatement
85.3
51.0
2.5
49.7
61.3
72.4
35.7
33.6
37.1
Energy
73.7
23.2
0.2
37.4
46.0
67.7
82.9
32.1
38.6
Energy Energy
Abatement Energy Ab«
94. 0
72.9
5.6
58.4
72.0
86.2
96.0
43.7
47. 0
72.9
23.8
0.3 5.
37.7
46.8
67.7
83.3
34.1
4O.O
96.8
72. 1
7
69.3
74.7
92.9
98.4
61,4
53.1
-------
•*»
I
-------
Chapter 4
Sectoral Analyses Results
In order to assess the impacts of pollution abatement
activities at a more detailed level than the macro-analysis
presented in Chapter 3, a sectoral level analysis of one of
the three abatement scenarios is required. In this chapter,
the Reference Abatement Scenario is analyzed at the sectoral
level to describe these micro-level impacts. Estimated
reductions in pollutant residuals for industries, mobile
sources, municipal treatment, and Federal, state, and local
governments, which are derived from the Reference Abatement
Scenario are analyzed first. Following this, the sectoral
costs forecast for various industries to comply with Federal
pollution control legislation are analyzed.
ESTIMATING THE REDUCTION IN
AIR RESIDUAL GENERATION
The graphs in Figure 1 show the impacts of the Reference
Abatement scenario on generation of air residuals, in the
graphs, the controlled (net) residual emission for each
pollutant in 1971 is set equal to 100 and forecasts for
subsequent years are indexed to the 1971 controlled
emissions. Uncontrolled emissions are also shown indexed to
the 1971 controlled emissions. The relative difference
between the two plots indicates the overall effectiveness of
pollution abatement technology for each pollutant in the
forecast year. Controlled emissions are defined to be those
that enter the receiving media (air, water) from the
generating source after the abatement process is completed.
The relative contribution to total controlled emissions in
air by industrial/commercial sources, electric utilities and
municipal treatment is shown by the distance between the
appropriately labeled curves on each graph.
Reduction in residuals discharged to. the nation's
environment, as shown in Figure 1, is only a rough indicator
of environmental quality. However, significant increases or
decreases of the various types of emissions are indicative
of probable changes in ambient trends. Therefore, the
graphs afford a measure of the probable environmental
quality so far as air is concerned.
The ma)or source of each air pollutant is illustrated in
Figure 1. Particulates and sulfur oxide emissions in 1971
result primarily from activity in the stationary sources
4-66
-------
(industrial/commercial and electric utilities) while the
major cause of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide is mobile
sources (transportation). Nitrogen oxide emissions are
approximately equal from fixed and mobile sources in 1971
and are shown to be difficult to abate in both sources.
4-67
-------
Figure 1.
Trends In Air Residuals from the Reference
Abatement Scenario
H«lrWT»TTMI
"•Tiacror
SsSsSff;-^ ,; • . 8SSST^T1UT1«
4-68
-------
For the major stationary-source residuals (particulates and
sulfur dioxide), decreasing emissions are shown until 1977.
The end of 1977 was chosen in the Reference Case scenarios
to be the date that full compliance to the Clean Air Act for
all fixed sources occurs. After 1977, the plots of both
sulfur oxide and particulate emissions from fixed sources
level until 1980 and sulfur oxides even shows slight
increases to 1985. This represents a. pattern approximating
the growth in economic activity without significant
subsequent increases in pollution abatement efficiencies for
these two pollutants. This pattern is found for
particulates from 1977-1980 and for sulfur oxides from 1977-
1985. (There is a slight dampening in the growth of the
emissions from these sources compared with the economic
growth over the 1977-1980 or 1977-1985 period due to more
stringent controls on emissions from new-plants.) The index
of emissions for particulates relative to the 1971 total
show the mobile sources share to be approximately constant
at 3 percent from 1971 through 1985- the index for
industrial/commercial sectors decreases from 84 percent in
1971 to 16 percent in 1985; and the electric utilities index
declines sharply from 13 percent to 1 percent by .1977 and
then becomes fairly constant. The relative indices for
sulfur oxides emissions show the mobile source share
increasing from 2 percent in 1971 to 3 percent in 1985. The
index for the industrial/commercial source remains fairly
constant throughout the interval, decreasing slightly by
1977, .while the electric utilities index decreases from
approximately 50 percent in 1971 to about 25 percent in
1985.
Turning to air pollutants where mobile sources are most
important, the graph for hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emissions both show a steady decrease to 1985. Emissions
standards for both pollutants for automobiles are scheduled
for full compliance in 1978. The steady decrease in the
graphs after that time is due to phaseout of the older
model-year automobiles from vehicles still on the road that
occurs in each successive year since older automobiles are
not as well controlled as new models.' This factor tends to
offset any increases in stationary source emissions after
1977, which result fromx .growth in economic output.
Uncontrolled hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions show
a decrease from 1971 to 1975", because older automobiles
(pre-1968 model years) have hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide
emission factors approximately 120 percent larger than those
for the 1971 model year. Many of these automobiles were
still in use in 1971 and 'are phased out throughout the
forecast period. This effect continues after 1977 for
carbon monoxide due to the existence of more strict control
4-69
-------
standards after that time. The mobile sources index of
hydrpcarbon.s.:decreases ferom 63 percent in 1971 to 20 percent
in 1985 while the index for hydrocarbon emissions 'from
stationary sources decreases from 37 percent to 25 percent.
Corresponding values for carbon monoxide are 85 to 25
percent and 15 to 9 percent.
Nitrogen oxide uncontrolled emissions increase 57 percent
over the course of the forecast period. The electric
utilities index to 1971 controlled emissions increases from
29 to 61 percent, while the mobile source index increases
from 52 percent to 65 percent; the remainder from
industrial/commercial sources is fairly constant. The
forecast increase in nitrogen oxide controlled emissions due
to mobile sources is probably underestimated by this
forecast because it is assumed that the presently legislated
1978 standard will be met. If the 1978 standard is modified
or not met, which appears to be quite possible, the increase
in nitrogen oxide emissions would be even more severe.
Table 1 shows further detail concerning the largest
contributors to the industrial/commercial share of emissions
for air residuals after controls. The combustion of fossil
fuels by 1985 causes the largest proportion of both sulfur
oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions. For particulates, the
greatest source by far of emissions is the Crushed Stone
subsector, particularly in 1980. The consumption of
gasoline at service stations and the production and use of
solvent-based paints dominate the generation of hydrocarbon
emissions in 1971 and increase their shares by 1985. In
1985, the production and consumption of Solvent-Based Paints
yield over 40 percent of the industrial/commercial share of
hydrocarbons and about 25 percent of the total hydrocarbon
emissions from all sources. Several sectors/subsectors,
such as Asphalt Production in particulates and Crude Oil
Refining in sulfur oxides, have large shares of controlled
emissions in 197.1; however, because of improved treatment
efficiencies, they maXe small contributions to the aggregate
industrial/commercial residuals in 1985.
Differences in air residuals as forecast in the Low
Productivity Abatement and Energy Abatement Scenarios are
presented in Table 2 as percent changes from the forecast
for major polluting industries in the Reference Abatement
Scenario. For the Low Productivity Abatement Scenario, one
might expect these differences to be on the order of the
percent change in GNP, as shown at the bottom of the table.
The general tendency, however, is for residual production to
change at lower rates than GNP, with the notable exception
of the industrial and commercial use of fossil fuels. As
expected, little difference is seen between the Energy
4-70
-------
Abatement and the Reference Abatement Scenarios other than
in the energy related sectors, where significantly lower
residuals are forecast for the Energy Abatement Scenario.
4-71
-------
Table 1.
industrial/Commercial Net Air Residuals by
Major contributing Sectors/Subsectors
Percent of Industrial and Elec.
Emissions from Reference
Abatement Scenario
Sectors/Subsectors 1971 1975 1980 1985
Particulates
Stone & Clay Products
Crushed Stone 21.4 34.2 70.7 46.7
Electric utilities
Elec. by Coal 12.9 12.7 4.3 7.9
Paving & Asphalt
Asphalt 11.2 8.5 1.4 1.0
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
Cement-Dry Grinding 8.6 7.2 1.4 0.3
Cement-Wet Grinding 8.0 6.1 1.0 0.2
Steel 6.5 5.4 2.7 3.9
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
Lime 3.6 2.9 0.3 0.6
Industrial Combustion
of Coal 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.8
Sulfur Oxides
Electric Utilities
Elec. by High Sulfur
Coal 46.9 42.6 26.5 24.1
Petroleum Refining
Crude Oil Refining 7.6 4.6 0.6 0.7
Commercial/Institutional
Use of Residual oil 3.8 5.4 7.8 11.8
Petroleum Refining-l'nd.
Combustion of Oil 3.6 6.3 11.1 12.0
4-72
-------
Table 1. (Continued)
Industrial/Commercial Net Air Residuals -by
Major Contributing Sectors/Subsectors
Sectors/Subsectors
Crude Petro. Mat. Gas
Sour Nat. Gas Proc.
Plants
Electric Utilities
Elec. by High Sulfur
Residual Oil
Elec. by £ow Sulfur
Coal
Hitrogen Oxides
Electric Utilities
Elec. by ,Coal
Elec. by Gas
Elec. by Oil
Petroleum Refining
industrial Combustion
of Oil
Hydrocarbons
Service Stations
Gasoline consumption
Paints
Solvent Base Paints
Production
Open Burning
Solvent Based Paints
Consumption
Petroleum Refining
Crude Oil Refining
Gasoline Production
Percent of Industrial and Elec.
Emissions from Reference
Abatement Scenario
1971 1975 1980 1985
3.3
3.3
0.8
41.6
10.8
8.9
3.8
1.9
2.9
48.1
8.1
11.4
3.2
10.1 10..6
0.1
2.2
50.7
5.5
13.5
2.5
0.1
2.5
4.4 12.0 14.4
50.3
5.5
14.7
2.5
17.3 25.5 29.3 24.9
17.0 22.2 26.3 32.9
10.2 0 0 0
9.8 11.1
8.5
6.8
5.6
7.0
2.2
5.7
3.1
8.5
4--73
-------
Table 1. (Continued)
Industrial/Cosusercial Net Air Residuals by
Major Contributing Sectors/Subsect.ors
Percent of Industrial and Elec.
Emissions from Reference
Abatement Scenario
Sectors/Subsectors 1971 1975 1980 1985
Industrial Chemicals
Ethylene Oxide 3.2 2.0 0.4 0.5
4-74
-------
Table 2.
Percent Changes In Air Residuals from the
Major Polluting Industries for Alternative
Abatement Scenarios Compared with
the Reference Abatement Scenario
Percent Difference from the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2)
Sectors/Subsectors
Par'tlculates
Stone & Clay Products
Crushed Stone
Electric Ut1lItles
Electricity by Coal
Paving & Asphalt
Asphalt
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
Cement-Dry Grinding
Cement-Wet Grinding
Steel
Cement. Concrete, Gypsum
Ume
Industrial Combustion of Coal
N.E.C.
Sulfur Oxides
Electric UtllItles
Electricity by High Sulfur
Coal
Low Productivity Abatement (S4)
1971 1975 198O 1985
Energy Abatement (S6)
1971 1975 198O 1985
o.o
o.o
o.o
o.o
0.0
o.o
o.o
o.o
3. 1
2.O
2.8
3.4
3,4
2.O
3.2
4.4
-8
-5
-7
-8
-8
-10
-9
-8
.2
. 1
. 1
.9
.9
. 1
• O
.8
-9
-9
-8
-9
-9
-1O
-10
-12
. 1
. 1
.6
.6
.6
.2
.2
.3
0
O
O
O
0
O
0.
O,
.0
.0
.O
.O
.0
.O
.0
,o
-0
-1
-O
-O
-O
-O
-0
O
.2
.7
. 1
.2
,2
.2
.2
.O
-0.4
-5.5
-O.3
-O.5
-0.5
-O.7
-O.4
O.O
-O.3
-13.7
-O.2
-O.3
-0.3
-2.0
-1.3
0.2
O.O
2.0
-5.1
-9. 1
O.O
-1 .7
-5.5 -13.7
-------
Table 2. (Continued)
Percent Changes 1n Air Residuals from the
Major Polluting Industries for Alternative
Abatement Scenarios Compared with
the Reference Abatement Scenario
Sectors/Subsectors
Petroleum Refining
Crude 011 Refining
Commercial/Institutional
Use of Residual 011
Petroleum Refining
Industrial Combustion of 011
Crude Petroleum, Natural Gas
Sour Natural Gas Proc. Plants
Electric Ut111t1es
Electricity by High Sulfur
Residual 011
Electricity by Low Sulfur Coal
Nitrogen Oxides
Electric Ut1l1tles
Electricity by Coal
Electricity by Gas
Electricity by 011
Petroleum Ref1n1ny
Industrial Combustion of Oil
Hydrocarbons
Service Stations
Gasoline Consumption
Paints
Solvent Base Paint Production
Percent Difference from the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2)
Low Productivity Abatement (S4)
O.O
O.O
0.0
2. 1
0.7
3.9
-4.9
-2.1
-8. 1
-6.5
-2.9
-11 .7
Energy Abatement (S6)
1971
O.O
O.O
O.O
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
O.O
1975
2. 1
4.6
2. 1
1.6
2.O
2.O
2.0
2.O
2.O
198O
-4
-8
-5
-3
-5
-5
-5
-4
-5
.9
. 1
.O
.5
. 1
. 1
.1
.9
. 1
1985
-6.
-13,
-6.
-5.
-9.
-9.
-9.
-8,
-9.
,5
.4
5
,6
. 1
, 1
.1
,7
, 1
1971
O.
O.
0.
0.
0.
O.
0.
0.
O.
O
O
O
0
0
0
0
O
O
1975
-7
O
-7
-O
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
.4
.2
.4
.5
.7
.7
.7
.6
.7
198O
-7.4
O.O
-7.4
-3.4
-5.5
-5.5
-5.5
-5.4
-5.5
1985
-14.2
O.7
-14.2
-4.0
-13.7
-13.7
-13.7
-13.1
-13.7
O.O
O.O
0.0
-7.4
-7.4 -14.2
-12.4 -24.4 -35.8
0.0
O.O
0.4
-------
Table 2. (Continued)
Percent Changes 1n Air Residuals from the
Major Polluting Industries for Alternative
Abatement Scenarios Compared with
the Reference Abatement Scenario
Percent Difference from the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2)
Low Productivity Abatement (S4) Energy Abatement (S6)
Sectors/Subsectors
Open Burning
Solvent Based Paints
Consumption
Petroleum Refining
Crude 011 Refining
Gasoline Production
Industrial Chemicals
Ethylene Oxide O.O 6.4 -1O.6 -13.5 O.O O.O 0.1 -0.6
1971
O.O
O.O
0.0
O.O
1975
0.0
2.8
2. 1
0.7
198O
O.O
-5.3
-4.9
-2. 1
1985
O.O
-8.3
-6.5
-2.9
1971
0.0
O.O
O.O
O.O
1975
O.O
O. 1
-7.4
-12.4
198O
O.O
O. 1
-7.4
-24.4
1985
O.O
O.4
-14.2
-35.8
-------
ESTIMATING THE REDUCTION IN
WATER RESIDUAL GENERATION
Figure 2 presents graphs for water residuals which are
similar to those in Figure 1. The shape of the total water
residual curves (see Figure 2) does not show any increases
after 1977 similar to the total controlled air residual
curves for sulfur oxides. (However, the controlled level of
nutrients remains approximately the same after 1977 since
the increase in tertiary treatment of municipal sewage is
only sufficient to offset the increase in uncontrolled
nutrients due to population growth.) This is due primarily
to the phased abatement schedule for water effluents in the
1972 amendments. The Reference Abatement Scenario assumes
that BPT is operational by 1977 and BAT is operating by
1983; therefore, there is a continual increase in most water
effluent removal efficiencies until 1983. Other than the
change from the sulfur oxides curve, the curves for the
total uncontrolled water residuals show shapes similar to
the remaining air residual curves, responding to increases
in economic output and population.
Industrial/commercial and municipal sewage contribute
approximately equal, but declining, shares to BOD effluents
through 1985. All three sources, industrial/commercial,
municipal sewage, and electric utilities, contribute to
suspended solids emissions. In 1971, the
industrial/commercial index was approximately 78 percent of
all suspended solids emissions; however, this index
diminishes to less than 6 percent by 1985 while the
municipal sewage index changes only from 21 percent in 1971
to about 10 percent in 1985.
4-78
-------
Figure 2.
Trends in water Residuals from the
Reference Abatement Scenario
4-79
-------
The composition of dissolved solids emissions is almost
totally (85 percent) from industrial/commercial sources in
1971; by 1985 the industrial/commercial index has dropped to
50 percent while the electric utilities index has grown from
15 percent to 30 percent, primarily due to electric
generation by coal. Nutrients (composed of phosphate and
nitrate effluents) are almost totally due to municipal
sources for all years and remain at a relatively constant
level throughout the time period.
Table 3 shows the largest economic sector and subsector
contributors to the industrial/commercial share of effluents
for water. Municipal sewage treatment is excluded from
consideration in this table because residuals attributed to
this sector come from a variety of sources in addition to
industrial and commercial establishments. For BOD, -Pulp
Mills are the major source of effluents in 1971. However,
by 1985, Forestry and Fishery Prodjicts has the largest share
of BOD effluents, reflecting the lesser degree of treatment
efficiency for this sector. Asphalt production and the
Bauxite Refining process were the largest polluters of
suspended solids from industrial/commercial sources in 1971.
By 1985, however, sectors/subsectors with less efficient
control technologies, such as Forestry and Fishery Products,
Lime production, and Bleached Kraft Pulp Mills, account for
almost half of the effluent while suspended solids from
Asphalt and Bauxite Refining are completely controlled.
Subsectors of the Industrial Chemicals sector yield the
greatest share of dissolved solids effluents prior to the
implementation of BAT in 1983. Of these subsectors, the
production of sodium carbonate by the Solvay process was the
largest contributor in 1971. This economic production
process, however, is being replaced by a competing process
for the production of sodium carbonate, the Trona process.
The Trona process yields negligible water residuals-
therefore, effluents from the Sodium Carbonate process
decrease to almost zero in 1985. In contrast to this
pattern, the share for Citric Acid production increases from
less than 25 percent to over 50 percent of
industrial/commercial suspended solids effluents over the
period because the production of Citric Acid increases to
double the 1971 value by 1985.
Table 4 presents the percent differences in water residuals
forecast for the major polluters of the Reference Abatement
Scenario in the Low Productivity Abatement and Energy
Abatement Scenarios as compared with water residuals from
those polluters found in the Reference Abatement Scenario.
The same general trends between scenarios are evidenced for
water residual differences as for air residuals. The trends
4-80
-------
for the Energy Abatement Scenario are, however, less
pronounced because major changes in assumptions made for
this scenario impacted primarily on air residuals rather
than on water residuals.
4-81
-------
Table 3.
Industrial/Commercial Net Water Residuals by
Major Contributing Sectors/Subsectors
Percent of Industrial and
Elec. Emissions from
Reference Abatement Scenario
Sectors/Subsectors 1971 1977 1983 1985
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
Pulp Mills
Kraft-Bleached 13.1 11.1 7.5 6.7
Plastic Materials &
Resins 8.6 13.3 11.4 8.0
Forestry & Fishery
Products 7.4 14.6 33.4 40.6
Pulp Mills
Sulfite-Pulp 6.0 5.5 3.5 2.5
Pulp Mills
Kraft-Unbleached 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.9
Suspended Solids
Paving & Asphalt
Asphalt 26.3 19.1 0 0
Aluminum
Bauxite Refining 25.3 18.9 0 0
Steel 13.5 12.4 7.5 3.7
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
Lime 7.7 1.7 9.2 16.6
Pulp Mills
Kraft-Bleached 4.7 7.0 13.0 13.5
Forestry & Fishery
Products 4.2 9.7 19.7 17.1
4-82
-------
Table 3. (Continued)
Industrial/Commercial Het Water Residuals by
Major Contributing Sectors/Subsectors
Sectors/Subsectors
Percent of industrial and
Elec, Emissions from
Reference Abatement Scenario
1971
1977
1983
1985
Dissolved Solids
Industrial Chemicals
Sodium Carbonate-
Solvay Process
Citric Acid
39.0
23.0
29.8
27.2
7.6
45.2
0
50.6
Electric utilities
Electricity by Coal 14.1
Industrial Chemicals
Chlorine-Diaphragm
Cell 2.3
24.2 31.8
34.9
3.5
1.5
4-83
-------
Table 4
Percent Changes In Water Residuals from the
Major Polluting Industries for Alternative
Abatement Scenarios Compared with
the Reference Abatement Scenario
it*
CD
Sectors/Subsectors
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
Pulp Mil Is
Kraft-Bleached
Plastic Materials & Resins
Forestry & Fishery
Products
Pulp Mills
Sulf1te-Pulp
Pulp Mills
Kraft-Unbleached
Suspended Sol Ids
Paving & Asphalt
Asphalt
A1 urn 1 nuin
Bauxite Refining
Percent Difference from the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2)
Low Productivity Abatement (S4) Energy Abatement (S6)
1971 1977 1983 1985 1971 1977 1983 198S
O.O
0.0
O.O
0.0
O.O
O.O
O.O
1 1 -9.0 -10.3 O.O O.6 -0.9 -1.6
1.3 -1O.7 -12.1 O.O -O.2 -2.1 -2.8
1.4 -15.5 -17.5 O.O O.2 -O.3O.2
1.3
O.9
1 . 1
-8.5
-9.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 O.5
1.1 -9.O -1O.3 O.O O.6 -O.9 -1.6
O.O O.O O O
O.O 0.0 0 0
-------
Table 4. (Continued)
Percent Changes 1n Water Residuals from the
Major Polluting Industries for Alternative
Abatement Scenarios Compared with
the Reference Abatement Scenario
I
00
tn
Sector s/Subsectors
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
L1me
Pulp Mills
Kraf t -Unb 1 eached
Forestry & Fishery
Products
Dissolved Solids
Industrial Chemicals
Sodium Carbonate-
Sol vay Process
Citric Add
Electric Utll 1t1es
Electricity by Coal
Industrial Chemicals
Chlorine-Diaphragm Cell
Percent Difference from the Reference Abatement Scenario (52)
Low Productivity Abatement (S4) Energy Abatement (56)
1971 1977 1983 1985 1971 1977 1883 1985
O.O O.5 -10-1 -1O.6 0.00.1 -O.9 -1.2
O.O
O.O
O.O
0.0
O.O
O.O
0.0
1-1 -9.2 -1O.2
1.1 -9.0 -1O.3
1.4 -15.5 -17.5
1.2
2.4
O.9
-10.3 0
-11.0 -13.9
-7.5
-9.1
1.4 -10.3 -11.6
O.O O.O -1,1 -1.3
O.O O.6 -0.9 -1.6
O.O O,2 -O.3 0.2
O.O-O.1 -1.30
O.O O.3 O.8 1.3
0.0 -3.5 -9.5 -13.7
O.O O.O -1.O -1.3
-------
ESTIMATING THE COST OF
POLLUTION CONTROL
Assuming air and water pollution controls, associated cost
functions, and the Reference Case growth in GNP, direct
costs of pollution control for each industry sector can be
forecast using SEAS. Using these forecasts, the total
annual costs (annualized capital plus O&M) for the 1976-85
period for all industries will be:
industrial Control Costs (Billions 1975$) $231.8
Air Costs $111.1
Water Costs $120.7
The detailed distribution of these costs across aggregate
industrial sectors is shown in Table 5. Note that Electric
Power Plants must expend about a fourth of the air pollution
costs. Nearly another quarter of the air costs are borne by
many different industries in order to provide space heating,
with Chemicals and Paper being the major aggregate
industries making this expenditure.
By far the largest water pollution control expenditure is
made by the Machinery and Equipment sector (this includes
the aggregate sectors of electroplating, fabricated metal
products, and electrical and nonelectrical machinery). This
sector is required to expend over 50 percent of all
industrial water pollution control expenditures. The
Chemicals sector is the second largest spender for water
pollution control (in particular, Organic Chemicals,
inorganic Chemicals, and Plastics and Synthetics), and will
be required to spend slightly over 16 percent of the total
industrial control costs for water pollutants.
when air and water pollution control costs are combined, the
preponderance of Machinery and Equipment expenditures for
water pollution control also maXe it the aggregate sector,
expending over twice the amount that any other aggregate
sector expends for total pollution control even though no
air pollution control expenditures are required. The share
of total pollution control equipment costs for Machinery and
Equipment is 29 percent. Of the remaining aggregate
sectors, five show total pollution control costs in excess
of 5 percent of the national industrial pollution control
costs: Electric Utilities (14 percent); Other (11 percent).
Pulp, Paper, Printing, and Lumber (8 percent); Ferrous
Metals (8 percent); and Chemicals (7 percent). Together,
4-86
-------
these six aggregate sectors account for two-thirds of
national industrial pollution control costs.
4-87
-------
Table 5.
Annual1zed National Control Costs for A1r and Water Pollution
Abatement (excluding Transportation and Municipal Control Costs), 1976-1985
(In Millions of 1975 Dollars)
AIR
o>
00
Aggregated Industrial Sectors
Agr1cu1ture
Mining
Food Processing
Textiles
Pulp, Paper, Printing & Lumber
Chemicals
Petroleum & Rubber
Ferrous Metals
Nonferrous Metals
Stone, Clay, & Glass
Machinery & Equipment
Electric Utilities
Trade & Services
Other
Total
Costs
0
588
3,629
316
,864
,4O7
6,280
11.885
9,784
6,317
1,619
24,538
3,622
24,237
11,
6,
% of
National
Costs
0
0.5
3.3
O.3
10.7
5.8
5.7
1O.7
8.8
5.7
1 .5
22. .1
3.3
21 .8
Total
Costs
291
O
6,203
642
7,887
19,732
2,692
7,486
1 ,506
502
65,795
7,455
O
525
-W«ICK AiK « WAICK-
% Of % Of
National Total National
Costs Costs Costs
O.2 291 0.1
0 599 O.3
5.1 9 . 832 4 . 2
O.5 968 O.4
6.5 19,751 8,5
16.4 16, 139 6.9
2.2 8,972 3.9
6.2 19,371 8.3
1.3 1O.29O 4.4
O.4 6,819 3.0
54.5 67,414 29 . O
6.2 31,99313.7
O 3,622 1.6
0.4 24,762 1O. 6
National Totals
111,O86
12O.716
232,8O2
-------
To illustrate the components of the cost estimates for each
industry, two aggregate industrial sectors (Paper and
Printing, and Ferrous Metals) may be examined in greater
detail. Table 6 shows the cost sectors involved in each of
these aggregate sectors and their associated air pollution
abatement expenditures. Note that Kraft Pulping contributes
more than 85 percent of the air pollution control
expenditures for the aggregate Paper and Printing sector.
Similarly, the manufacture of iron and steel mill products
comprise the bulk of the Ferrous Metals expenditures for air
pollution control.
Table 6.
Air Pollution Abatement Expenditure Detail for
Paper and Ferrous Metals
% of Total Annual Air
Expenditures (1976-85
Pulp, Paper, Printing & Lumber 10.7
Kraft Pulp 9.3
HSSC Pulp 1.2
Printing 0.2
Lumber 0.0
Ferrous Metals 10.7
Iron and Steel 7.2
iron Foundries 2.3
Steel Foundries 0.6
Ferroalloys 0.7
Kraft Pulping expenditures for air pollution control are
calculated using 11 industrial process segments while the
expenditures for iron and Steel manufacture are calculated
using 22 industrial process segments. The 11 segments for
Kraft Pulping and their contribution to the Kraft Pulping
total are shown in Table 7.
4-89
-------
Table 7.
Air Pollution Cost Detail by Segment
for Kraft Pulping
% of Total Annual
Air Expenditures
Paper
Kraft Pulping 9-3
Lime Kiln 0.10
Smelting Tank 0.08
Gas Incineration in
Recovery Furnace 0.10
Gas Incineration in
Lime Kiln 0.10
Boiler—suspended Particulates 0.28
Boiler—sulfur Oxides 3.53
Recovery Furnace
Scrubber 0.03
Black Liquor oxidation 0.28
Replacement 1.03
Electrostatic Precipitator 0.57
industrial Fuel combustion 3.20
Industry investment
The difficulties that a given industry faces in making
pollution control expenditures are dependent upon many
factors. Two of these factors are the size of the pollution
control expenditures as a percentage of total output by the
industry and the pollution control investment required as a
percentage of the total expected investment by that
industry. Data for 31 aggregate industries concerning each
of these factors are shown in Tables 8 and 9. Table 10
summarizes this data for air, water, and total pollution
control expenditures and investments for the 31 aggregate
industries and also ranks the industries based on each
percentage.
4-90
-------
Table 8.
Relative Impacts of Required In-House
Pollution Abatement Expenditures, 1976-1985
(Million 1975$)
Air
Water Air & Water
it*
I
vo
Category
Agriculture
Mining
Natural Gas Processing
Meat & Poultry
Dairy
Canned & Frozen Food
Grain Milling & Feed Mills
Beet & Cane Sugar
Textiles
Lumber & Wood Products
Furniture
Pulp & Paper
Builder's Paper
Print ing
Chemicals
Fertl11zers
Plastics & Synthetics
Petroleum & Asphalt
Paints
Rubber Products
Leather Tanning
Glass
Asbestos, Clay, Lime, &
Concrete
Iron & Steel
Nonferrous Metals
Fabricated Metals &
Electroplating
Output
1,260,713
225; 684
243,857
491.3O5
1 89 , 35O
226, 182
195,772
50,796
650,571
178, 63O
213,699
367,951
138,245
445,666
5O5 , 52O
52,841
223,432
629, 9S9
58,891
184,603
14,719
110,432
274,559
540,843
405,332
Total
Cost
0
165
423
O
O
0
3,629
O
316
0
1,849
9,904
O
111
5,275
512
501
6.28O
119
0
O
O
5,974
11,885
9,784
% of
Output
O
O.O7
0.17
O
0
O
1.85
O
0.05
0
0.86
2.69
0
O.O2
1 .04
O.97
O.22
1.OO
O.26
O
0
O
2,17
2.20
2.42
Total % of Total % of
Cost Output Cost Output
291 O.O2 291 O.O2
O O 165 O.O7
0
1,059
1,338
3,638
47
121
641
425
O
7,276
184
0
16,386
372
2,974
2,446
0
246
525
212
290
7,481
1.5O6
O 423 O.17
O.22 1.O59 O.22
O.71 1,338 O.71
1.61 3,638 1.61
O.02 3,675 1.88
0.24 121 O.24
O.1O 957 O.15
O.24 425 O.24
O 1,849 0.86
1.98 17,181 4.67
0.13 184 0.13
O 111 O.O2
3.24 21,661 4.29
O.7O 884 1.67
1.33 3,476 1 .56
O.39 8.725 1.38
O 119 0.26
O.13 246 O.13
3,57 525 3.57
O.19 212 O. 19
0.11 6,264 2.28
1.38 19,366 3.58
O.37 11.29O 2.79
999,5O3
32,451
3,26 32,451 3.26
-------
I
VD
ro
Table 8. (continued)
Relative Impacts of Required In-House
Pollution Abatement Expenditures, 1976-1985
(Million 1975$)
A1r
Category
Machinery
Transportation Equipment
Electric Utilities
Wholesale & Retail
Services
Other Industries
Water Air & Water
Output
1,258,102
1.763.12O
792,675
4 . 72 1 , 246
S, 728, 522
.N.A i
Total
Cost
1, 148
471
24 . 538
3,317
3O5
24 .237
% Of
Output
O.O9
0.03
3. 1O
O.07
O.O1
N.A
Total % of Total . % of
Cost
21,710
11,634
7.458
0
O
O
Output Cost ^Outpi
1.73 22,858 1.82
O.67 12.1O5 O.7O
O.94 31,992 4.O4
O 3,317 O.O7
O 3OS O.O1
N.A 24.237 N.A
Totals
N.A 11O.743
N.A 12O.7O8 N.A 231,450 N.A
-------
*>
I
vo
Table 9.
Relative Impacts of Required In-House Pollution
Abatement Investment, 1976-1985
(Mill ion 1975 $)
Category
Agriculture
Mining
Natural Gas Processing
Meat & Poultry
Dairy
Canned & Frozen Pood
Grain Mill ing &
Feed Mills
Beet & Cane Sugar
Textiles
Lumber & Wood
Products
Furniture
Pulp & Paper
Bu11der's Paper
Printing
Chemicals
Pert111zers
Plastics 8, Synthetics
Petroleum & Asphalt
Paints
Rubber Products
Leather Tanning
Glass
Asbestos, Clay, Lime,
& Concrete
Iron & Steel
Nonferrous Metals
Total
Air-
Abatement
Investment Investment %
75,569
33,392
21,736
6,998
5,558
1 1 , 236
6,642
4.O17
29,289
17,624
6,634
49.672
7,337
25,072
66 , 566
5,373
20,696
34,207
2,235
16.21O
4O9
8,484
18,513
56,016
28,061
O
134
51
O
O
O
1.O21
O
88
0
9O
2.O3O
O
22
1.O96
98
14O
1,121
12
O
O
O
628
2,019
1,157
O
O.40
O.24
0
O
0
15.37
O
O.3O
O
1.36
4.O9
O
O.O9
1.65
1.82
O.68
3.28
O.53
O
O
O
3.39
3.60
4.12
Water
Abatement
Total
Air & Water % Total
Investment % Investment Investment
112
O
O
492
516
1,740
13
31
378
71
O
5.O24
123
O
5,404
243
1.56O
1,670
0
13O
28O
1O2
91
2,321
224
0.15 112
O 134
O 51 O
7.O4 492
9.28 516
15.481,740
O. 191, 033
2.91 31
1 . 29 467
O.4O 71
O 9O 1
10.127,055
1.68 123
O 22 O
8.126.5O1
4 . 52 34O
7.541,699
4.882,791
0 12 0.
O.80 13O
68.43 28O
1.21 1O2
O.49 719
4. 144, 34O
0.801,381
O.15
O.4O
.24
7.O4
9.28
15.48
15.56
2.91
1.59
O.4O
.36
14. 2O
1 .68
.09
9,77
6.34
8.21
8. 16
53
0.8O
68.43
1.21
3.38
7.75
4.92
-------
I
vo
>*>
Table 9. (continued)
Relative Impacts of Required In-House Pollution
Abatement Investment, 1976-1985
(M1111on 1975 $)
Category
Fabricated Metals &
Electroplating
Machinery
Transportation
Equ1pment
Electric Utllitles
Wholesale & Retail
Services
Other Industries
Total
Investment
54.55O
61,358
101, 169
127,174
229,612
2O1.538
N.A
A1r
Abatement
Investment %
0 0
118 O.19
131 O.13
7 , 9O6 6 . 22
1 , 2O7 O . 53
80 0.04
4,411 N.A
Water
Abatement
Investment
8,298
7,317
3,451
5,376
O
0
O
Total
Air & Water
Investment
% Total
Investment
15.218,298
11.937,436
15.21
12. 12
3.413,583 3.54
4.233,282 10.44
O1,207 O.53
0 SO 0.04
N.A4.411 N.A
Totals
N.A
23,560
N.A
44,967
N.A 68,529 N.A
-------
Table 1O.
Ranking of Impacted Sectors by Total Abatement Expenditures
as Percentages of Total Output and by Abatement Investment
as Percentages of Other Planned Investment
(1976-1985)'
Investment
*i>
en
Pulp & Paper
Chemicals
Electric Utilities
Iron & Steel
Leather Tanning
Fabricated Metals
and Electroplating
Nonferrous Metals
Asbestos, Clay,
Lime, and Concrete
Grain Milling & Feed Mills
Mach1nery
Fertl1izers
Canned & Frozen Food
Plastics & Synthetics
Petroleum & Asphalt
Furniture
Da i ry
Transportation Equipment
Paints
Beet & Cane Sugar
Lumber & Wood Products
Meat & Poultry
Glass
Natural Gas Processing
Textiles
Builder's Paper
Rubber Products
Air
Rank
4
9
2
5
-
-
3
6
1
17
8
-
11
7
10
-
18
12
-
-
-
-
16
15
-
-
5
4.
1 .
6.
3.
4.
3.
15.
0.
1 .
-
0.
3.
1 .
-
0.
0.
-
-
-
0.
0.
-
-
i
09
65
22
60
12
39 .
37
19
82
68
28
36
13
53
24
30
Water
Rank
5
7
12
13
1
3
19
21
23
4
11
2
8
1O
-
6
14
-
15
22
9
18
-
17
16
20
%
1O
8
4
4
68
15
0
0
0
11
4
15
7
4
9
3
2
0
7,
1
1.
1 .
0.
.12
. 12
.23
. 14
.43
.21
.80
.49
.19
.93
.52
.48
.54
.88
.28
.41
.91
.40
.04
.21
29
68
80
Both
Rank
5
8
7
12
1
4
16
15
2
6
14
3
1O
1 1
21
9
17
24
18
26
13
22
28
20
19
23
%
14
9
1O
7
68
15
4
5
15
12
6
15
8
8
1
9,
3.
O.
2.
O.
7.
1 .
O.
1.
1 .
0.
j
.20
.77
.44
.75
,43
.21
.92
.86
.56
.12
.34
.48
.21
. 16
.36
28
,54
,53
91
40
04
21
24
59
68
80
Output
Air Water
Rank Hank Rank
Both
22.6941,98 1 4.67
71.04 33.24 2 4.29
13.1O 9O.94 34.O4
42.24 71.38 4 3.62
- - 13.58 5 3.58
- - 23.25 6 3.25
32.4214O.37 7 2.79
52.17210.11 8 2.28
61.85230.02 9 1.88
14O.O9 51.73101.82
9O.9711O.7O11 1.67
- - 61.6112 1-61
12O.22 81.33131.56
81.OO130.39141.38
1OO.86 - -15 0.86
- -1OO.7016 0.70
180.03120.6617 0.69
110.26 - -18 0.26
- -150.2419 0.24
- -160.2420 0.24
- -17O.2221 0.22
- -ISO.1922 0.19
t3O.17 - -23 O.17
170.05220.1O24 0.15
- -190.13250.13
- -200.1326 0.13
-------
I
vo
Table 1O. ("continued)
Ranking of Impacted Sectors by Total Abatement Expenditures
as Percentages of Total Output and by Abatement Investment
as Percentages of Other Planned Investment
(1976-1985)'
Investment
Output
Air
Rank
13
14
19
-
2O
%
0.
O.
0.
-
0.
1
53
40
O9
O4
Water
Rank %
'-
-
-
24 0.15
-
Both
Rank
25
27
30
29
31
Air
%
O.
O.
O.
O
0
.53
.40
.09
, 15
.04
Rank
150
16O
19O
Water
Bo
Rank Rank %
.07
.07
.03
- -24O,
200
.01
- -27
- -28
- -29
.O23O
- -31
O.
0.
O
.07
.07
.03
O.O2
O
.CM
Wholesale & Retail
M1n i ng
Printing
Agriculture
Services
This table, while analogous to Table 4 of the Executive Summary, does not include the adjustments
to Industries where specific studies were undertaken at a later date.
-------
Of the 31 industrial sectors shown in Table 10, thirteen
require abatement expenditures for both air and water.
Industries with high air pollution control costs often have
significant water pollution control costs as well. However,
industries with high water pollution expenditure control
costs are less likely to also have air control expenditures.
Water pollution control investments dominate the air
pollution equipment investments, similar to the total
expenditure pollution control cost patterns discussed above.
Of the 10 largest investors, four have water pollution
control investments only, including three of the top four.
In the remaining six industries, three others show pollution
control investments heavily weighted towards water, two show
about even splits between air and water, and one is heavily
weighted towards air. Finally, of the top 10 industries for
air pollution control investments, nine also must make water
pollution control investments; however/ only five of the top
10 industries for water pollution investment must also make
air pollution control investments.
Considering air expenditures, the Grain Milling and Feed
Mills industry will have to make a 15.4 percent addition to
total expected investment during the 1976-85 period if it is
to adequately control air pollution. Other industries with
large air pollution investment requirements of greater than
3 percent of other investment requirements are: Electric
Utilities (6.2 percent), Monferrous Metals (4.1 percent),
Pulp and Paper 4.1 percent), Iron and Steel 3.6 percent),
Asbestos, Clay, Lime, and Concrete (3.4 percent), and
Petroleum and Asphalt (3.3 percent).
The total annual air pollution control costs during the
1976-85 period as percentages of- the total output value for
each sector are much smaller than the above ratios. The
highest sectors for these annual cost ratios are: Electric
Utilities (3.1 percent); Pulp and Paper (2.7 percent);
Nonferrous Metals (2.4 percent); Asbestos, Clay, Lime, and
Concrete (2.3 percent); Iron and Steel (2.2 percent); and
Grain Milling and Feed Mills (1.9 percent). Because some
sectors are more or less capital-intensive than others in
their air pollution abatement costs, this list is
significantly different from the previous list.
Similar percentages concerning water pollution abatement
investment to those presented for air pollution control may
be calculated. The comparison of water pollution control
investment to other planned investment yields the following
ranking for most heavily impacted industries:
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Leather Tanning 68.43%
Canned & Frozen Food 15.48%
Fabricated Metals &
Electroplating 15.21%
Machinery 11.93%
Pulp & Paper 10.12%
Dairy 9.28%
Chemicals 8.12%
Plastics and Synthetics 7.54%
Meat & Poultry 7.04%
All other industries show percentages of less than 5 percent
for this statistic.
The ratio of total industrial plant expenditures for water
pollution control (not Including payments to municipalities
for water pollution control) to total output again are much
smaller percentages than those for investment. The most
highly impacted industries using this statistic are:
Leather Tanning 3.58%
Fabricated Metals &
Electroplating 3.25%
Chemicals 3.24%
Pulp & Paper 1.98%
Machinery 1.73%
Canned & Frozen Food 1.61%
All other industries show percentages of less than 1.5
percent. As for air pollution control/ the relative
capital-intensity of pollution control costs for various
industries causes the ranking of industries in this list to
shift from the order of the previous list.
A final consideration in impact evaluation is the .total
impact of the combination of air and water pollution control
costs. Altogether, nine aggregate industries will require
an investment level for pollution control over the decade
that is more than 9 percent of other planned investment in
each industry:
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Leather Tanning 68.43%
Grain Milling & Feed Mills 15.56%
Canned & Frozen Food 15.48%
Fabricated Metals &
Electroplating 15.21%
Pulp & Paper 14.20%
Machinery 12.12%
Electric Utilities 10.44%
Chemicals 9.77%
Dairy 9.28%
Leather Tanning is by far the most impacted industry
according to this statistic, with pollution control
investments equal to slightly more than two-thirds of other
planned investment over the decade.
All industries have a total pollution control cost as a
percentage of sector output that is less than 5.0 percent.
The most heavily impacted are:
Pulp & Paper 4.67%
Chemicals 4.29%
Electric Utilities 4.04%
Iron & Steel 3.62%
Leather Tanning 3.58%
Fabricated Metals &
Electroplating 3.25%
Nonferrous Metals 2.79%
Asbestos, Clay, Lime, &
Concrete 2.42%
The other industries are impacted at less than 2 percent of
their total decade output.
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Chapter 5
Estimating Pollution Control Costs
COMPARISON OF SEAS INVESTMENT ESTIMATES
FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL WITH ESTIMATES OF BEA
The year-by-year estimates of air pollution control
investment presented in Chapter 4, which are necessary to
equip over half of the existing plants with required
pollution control devices by the beginning of 1976 and to
equip all existing plants with such devices by the end of
1978, appear to be optimistic when compared with the Bureau
of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimastes of actual air
pollution investment expenditures in 1973 and 1974 and of
planned expenditures for 1975.. Table 1 compares common
estimates for both studies, showing BEA estimates of actual
air pollution investments as a percentage of the SEAS
forecast of investments for the three years.
Table 1.
Comparison of SEAS Forecast investments and BEA
Estimates of Actual Air Pollution Investment
Expenditures for 1973, 1974, and 1975
{BEA estimates as a percent of SEAS Forecasts)
1973 1974 1975 1973-1975
All industries 105% 69% 38% 57%
Electric Utilities 182% 139% 123% 141%
Ferrous Metals 24% 16% 19% 19%
Nonferrous Metals 129% 49% 46% 63%
Stone, Clay, Glass 43% 47% 32% 39%
Food 32% 17% 17% 20%
Paper 45% 49% 60% 52%
Chemicals 155% 105% 106% 118%
Petroleum 184% 142% 369% 144%
in analyzing Table 1, note that according to SEAS forecasts
of investments, industries in aggregate were spending about
the right amount in 1973 (as estimated by BEA). Ferrous
Metals; Food; stone, Clay, and Glass; and Paper, however,
were well behind schedule even at this point. By 1974, the
4-1.00
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total for all industries had slipped behind the pace
estimated by SEAS as required to meet the pollution
standards. Possibly as an aftermath of the economic
recession, attempts to fight Federal regulations in the
courts, or other factors, industries as a whole had dropped
to less than 70 percent of the expenditure level needed in
1974. Ferrous Metals and Food dropped even further behind
their respective schedules than they were in 1973, By 1975,
the expenditures planned by industries had dropped to only
slightly above a third of the. amount needed to -meet the
expenditure schedule of the Reference Abatement Scenario.
However, three industries {Electric Utilities, Chemicals,
and Petroleum^ planned to install more equipment than the
SEAS investment 'schedule estimated as being needed. ' For
example, Petroleum planned to spend at a level three and a
half times greater than estimates indicated would be needed
by 1975 to meet the compliance schedules discussed in
Appendix B. A fourth sector, Paper, does not achieve the
required investment pace during 1973 through 1975, but it
does improve its percentage over time, in" contrast to these
industries, the other four industries in Table 1 exhibit
declining investment schedule percentages over the full time
period and are at less than 50 percent of required
investment by 1974. These industries are Ferrous Metals-
Nonferrous Metals; Stone, Clay, and Glass; and Food.
ESTIMATING SIGNIFICANT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL COSTS
Four types of environmental control costs are estimated by
SEAS. These types, along with the receiving medium
associated with each, ares
* industrial (air and water)
• Mobile sources (air)
» Municipal (water)
• Government (air and water)
The techniques used to -develop cost estimates for each of
these types are .presented in the following discussion.
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Estimating Air and Water
Costs for industrial Sources
All of the industrial control costs estimated by SEAS
(except for Electric Utilities) are endogenously determined.
These industrial costs are calculated using characteristics
of existing plants and estimated characteristics of new
plants to be built in response to overall economic activity
forecast by the SEAS economic projections. Therefore, if
one scenario has a 10 percent higher GNP than another by
1985, it will consequently forecast more new plants and
higher pollution abatement costs. This factor explains a
great deal of the differences between the Reference
Abatement Scenario costs and previous estimates by EPA and
other agencies. In addition, the composition of, as well as
the amount of, GNP growth affects the industrial cost
estimates. Further detail on the industrial cost estimation
techniques is provided in Appendix D.
Three additional types of environmental control costs
besides industrial costs are important. These are the costs
associated with mobile sources, municipal treatment, and
governmental expenditures. These costs are determined
outside the dynamics of the SEAS economic forecasting
models, but are made consistent with the results of these
models and, consequently, the industrial cost estimates.
For example, the control costs associated with new
automobiles are very much dependent upon the forecast of new
car sales. When national conditions change in such a way as
to alter the baseline projection of new car sales from 1971
to 1985, the inputs to the mobile source control cost
calculations are correspondingly adjusted.
Estimating Air Costs
for Mobile Sources
Mobile source air pollution control costs are generated as a
result of emission standards for light-duty vehicles (LDV),
heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), and aircraft, plus the impact of
State Transportation Control Plans (TCP's). The Clean Air
Act specifies national standards for mobile source emission
levels for hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen
oxides.
The costs to reach the national standards for emission
levels by the target years contined in the Clean Air Act are
estimated by a model that ages the present stock of
vehicles, year by year. The model takes into account new
vehicle sales, which are based upon the GNP and personal
income figures provided by the scenarios discussed in the
4-102
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macr©economic analyses. Calculated mobile source control
costs for the entire stock of vehicles are then fed back
through the interindustry model. For example, the capital
expenditures for automobile control devices are treated as
additional expenditures for the Motor Vehicles and Parts
sector while the operation and maintenance (O&M)
expenditures are treated as additional expenditures for the
Auto Repair sector.
The mobile source costs calculated in this comprehensive
analysis reflect meeting the stringent standards (0.41 HC,
3.4 CO, 0.4 NOx) and subsequent administrative
postponements. Costs presented in Section 2 were recently
updated to reflect further postponements proposed in Clean
Air Act amendments of Summer 1977.
Concentrations of carbon monoxide and smog (caused by
hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides reacting in sunlight) are
so high in several metropolitan areas that even the
stringent stationary source controls and the Federal mobile
source emission standards do not reduce emissions
sufficiently to meet Federal ambient air quality standards.
These areas have developed Transportation Control Plans
(TCP's) that involve combinations of additional mobile
source controls (more retrofit devices for existing
vehicles, strong inspection and maintenance measures, and
vapor control systems for gas stations).
The TCP costs (not adjusted to reflect savings from improved
fuel economy) are estimated to be $0.7 billion over the
1976-85 period. Most of these costs are for inspection and
maintenance of automobiles to insure that their pollution
control devices are operating at the proper effectiveness.
These are expenditures made primarily by automobile owners.
However, increased engine maintenance results in significant
fuel economy, which is a direct economic benefit to
automobile owners. In offsetting the increased maintenance
costs with these fuel savings, only a small net total cost
of $0.1 billion is left for TCP's over the 1976-85 period.
(Refer to Section 2, Transportation Control Plans, for
further detail.)
Estimating Water Costs
for Municipal Treatment
Municipal water pollution control expenditures comprise the
largest single category of water pollution control
expenditures. Municipal expenditures are.divided into six
types:
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• Construction of sewage treatment plants to provide
secondary treatment
• Construction of sewage treatment plants to provide
tertiary treatment more stringent than secondary
treatment (removal of phosphorus/ ammonia, nitrates,
and organic pollutants)
• Rehabilitation of old sewers
• Construction of new sewers
• correction of overflow from combined storm and sanitary
sewers
• Provision for stormwater treatment
Federal funds spent for municipal treatment are : based upon
past levels of expenditures and the present funding
authority of $19.5 billion for municipal construction grants
to states. State-local matching capital expenditures are
expected to be a third of the Federal construction grant
(i.e., Federal funds will comprise about 75 percent of
construction expenditures). Annualized capital expenditures
are estimated to be $46.0 billion over the 1976-85 period.
O&M expenditures to be made by state and local governments
are estimated to be $16.0 billion over the same period.
Very recent estimates (see Section 2) have slightly modified
these totals.
Estimating Air and water
Abatement Costs to Government
Estimates of governmental expenditures for air pollution
were made by using Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
estimates of Federal expenditures and by calculating state
and local expenditures through extrapolation of data for 15
sample states for which estimates of the costs of the State
Implementation Plans were available.
The governmental water control costs exclude Federal and
state and local government expenditures for municipal
treatment (covered elsewhere under the Municipal
Expenditures title), but they do include expenditures for:
• Monitoring
• Technical assistance
• Grant assistance
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« Research
• Abatement at government-owned facilities.
The total governmental expenditure'for pollution control is
estimated to be over $12 billion during the next decade.
The expenditure for any year is never as high to one percent
of the total estimated annual non-defense governmental
expenditure, during the 1976-85 period.
ESTIMATING POLLUTION CONTROL
COST IMPACTS
Previous estimates of the cost of air and water pollution
control by EPA have been presented in separate reports, The
Cost of ' Clean Air and The Economics of Clean water. in
these reports, costs were computed separately on an
industry-by-industry basis for air and water and then summed
to 'arrive at a total pollution control cost for air and
water, respectively. The two reports, however, often
differed in such assumptions as the growth in industrial
capacity" which would be subject to "controls and the rate of
interest. in addition, no estimates were developed in
either report on the combined Impact of air and water
pollution control expenditures on the economy in terms of
increased construction, equipment purchases, operating
materials, energy demand, and employment.
For this report, a consistent set of assumptions was
developed and entered into SEAS for the computation of both
air and water pollution control costs. Impacts were t'hen
estimated through the feedback of abatement-related
purchases to t"he sectors that produce and sell those goods
in the national economic forecasting model of SEAS. These
feedbacks include direct impacts on the demand for abatement
equipment and materials from supplying industries, as well
as on abatement-related employment• for - operation and
maintenance activities in • the Industries making the
expenditures. Additional feedbacks were used to estimate
the indirect effects of abatement costs oh the capital
•required to finance construction' and equipment purchases and
on the amount of energy consumed. The estimated direct and
indirect impacts resulting from these feedbacks are
presented below.
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Capital and O&M impacts
Each air pollution device and each water pollution control
technology has a capital and an O&M cost associated with it
which can be treated as purchases of goods and services from
selected sectors of the economy. For example, the three
principal air pollution control devices for industrial
sources - electrostatic precipitators (ESP), scrubbers, and
fabric filters (baghouses) - have the capital and O&M
feedback expenditure pattern shown in Table 2. The table
shows that for every $100 of capital expenditure for
precipitators, $48.90 goes to the New Construction sector,
$19.00 goes to the Other Fabricated Metal Products sector,
$10.00 goes to the Industrial Controls sector, $8.00 going
to the Cement, Concrete, Gypsum sector, and so on down to
$0.10 goes to the Paints Sector and to the Other Stone and
Clay Products sector. Similarly, for every $100 in non-
labor O&M spent on precipitators, $56.70 goes for
maintenance, $42.80 goes for electricity and $.50 goes for
paint materials.
when the full set of feedback matrices shown in Table 2 are
examined, one can get an a priori indication of which
industries will be impacted positively (via increased sales)
as a result of the pollution control expenditures. It
appears that New and Maintenance Construction, as well as
Electric Utilities, will experience significant positive
impacts as a result of investment and O&M expenditures for
air pollution control.
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Table 2.
Feedback Relationships for Three Common
A1r Pollution Control Technologies
Sectors
New Construction
Maintenance Construction
Industrial Chemicals
Cellulosic Fibers
Nonce1lulosic Fibers
Paints
Structural Clay Products
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum
Other Stone & Clay Prod(Asbestos)
Aluminum
Plumbing & Heating Equip
Structural Metal Products
Pipes, Valves, Fittings
Other Fabricated Metal Prod
Material Handling Machinery
Pumps, Compressors, Blowers
Motors and Generators
Industrial Controls
Elec Lighting and Wiring Equip
Electric Uti1ities
Water and Sewer Services
Precipitators
Capital
48.9
O. 1
8.O
0. 1
0.5
2.9
4.7
1 .O
19.0
1 .5
1 .8
O.B
10.0
1.0
Non-Labor
O&M
56.7
O.5
Wet Scrubbers
Capital
52.0
0. 1
1 .O
1 .7
0. 1
5.7
3. 1
3.5
12.6
3.0
6.7
1.6
4.O
4.9
Non-Labor
O&M
28.7
O. 1
0.5
Fi1ters
Non-Labor
Capital
49.4
1.5
3.5
0. 1
1.2
7.3
0. 1
0.3
0.7
4.8
1.3
19.2
1.2
3.5
0.9
4.0
O&M
61. S
2.0
4.O
O.5
1.O
42.8
41.5
29.2
32.0
-------
To examine the feedback impacts on the key sectors listed in
Table 2, the output of those sectors for several years is
compared for the Reference Case scenarios vith abatement and
without abatement. As Table 3 shows, capital feedbacks
affect industries most heavily prior to 1985, whereas the
O&M feedbacks are strongest in 1980 and 1985 when most
plants will be in compliance with air and water regulations.
Table 3.
Percent increase in Output with Addition of
Abatement to the Reference Case
Sectors 1975 1980 1985
Nev cdnstruction 14.94 6.15 1.21
Maintenance Construction 3.02 3.06 2.92
Cement, Concrete, Gypsum 12.78 3.41 0.76
Plumbing & Heating Equip 11.46 0.59 0.72
Structural Metal Products 8.01 2.94 0.91
Pipes, Valves, Fittings 21.41 16.94 2.45
Other Fabricated Metal 22.64 2.67 0.79
Pumps Compressors,Blowers 7.33 0.71 -0.11
industrial Controls 22.34 1.13 0.40
Electric Utilities 3.17 3.80 3.20
Water and Sewer Services 2.25 3.57 2.98
These estimates should be viewed as projections of what
would have to happen if the assumptions about the timing of
pollution control expenditures specified in Appendix B are
accepted. Specific sectors of the economic system may not
actually be able to absorb the amount and timing of
pollution investment shown to be necessary to meet the
compliance schedules with the control procedures discussed
in Sections Two and Three.
Employment impacts
By the year 1985, the level of employment required for
pollution control activities of the nation's industries and
municipal waste treatment facilities is estimated at 445
thousand employees. The breakdown by pollution control
category is as follows:
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Total Direct Pollution Thousands of Workers
Control Employment (1985) 445.2
Air Pollution Control 19.5
Water Pollution Control 425.7
Municipal §3.2
Industrial 366.5
Machinery, Equipment, &
Fabricated Metals 220.1
Organic Chemicals 30.0
Electroplating 20.5
Other 95.9
To provide an insight to the buildup of employment being
used for operation and maintenance of pollution control
equipment, the O&M employment levels for selected years are
listed below:
Total O&M Employment Thousands of workers
1977 1980 1983 1985
Industrial Air Pollution
Control 16.5 21.0 20.3 19.5
Industrial water Pollution
Control 150.3 211.1 237.9 366.5
Municipal water Pollution
Control 27.6 52.1 57.2 59.2
TOTALS 194.4 284.2 315.4 445.2
These levels of employment are calculated based on a
detailed methodology for each specific industry and
associated pollution control technologies that are operating
in that year. For each technology, data concerning the
amount of each O&M dollar spent includes the fraction spent
for direct labor and the mean annual gross salary required,
permitting determination of employment levels.
Other effects on employment levels exist due to pollution
control actions besides the direct effects noted above.
These include employment generated by purchases related to
pollution control construction, equipment and materials,
plus general impacts of the induced change in final demand
and industry demand mix on the GNP and industrial outputs.
For example, it was noted earlier that the introduction of
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pollution control equipment in the Reference Case caused
outputs of some sectors (e.g., Machinery} to increase while
dampening the outputs of others.
TO assess the combined direct and indirect impacts of
pollution control on employment, changes in employment must
be compared to those for direct pollution control
employment. Total employment at the national level in 1985
is about 245,900 persons greater for abatement than without
abatement, but 445,200 workers of the total with abatement
are engaged in operating and maintaining pollution control
equipment. Therefore, about 199,200 fewer workers in 1985
are producing output that contributes to GKP based on
present definitions. This occurs because the 445,200
workers who are working toward "producing a cleaner
environment" are not counted as "producing goods and
services" as conventionally defined in national economic
accounts.
To compare direct and indirect employment impacts of
pollution control over time, Table 4 below provides a
listing of the change in employment between the Reference
Scenario (Sl> and the Reference Abatement (S2) Scenario for
selected years.
Table 4.
Employment Changes. Resulting from Pollution Controls
(Thousands of workers)»
year Total Difference Total o&M
Employment S2-S1 Pollution Cntrl
Si S2 Employment
1977 90,266.4 91,892.2 1,625.8 194.4
1980 96,752.0 97,199.5 447.5 284.2
1983 100,893.5 101,328.7 435.2 315.4
1985 103,113.2 103,359.1 245.1 445.2
»S1 = Reference Scenario; S2 = Reference Abatement Scenario.
This table can be interpreted as follows: The difference
between the two scenarios reflects the change in total
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employment due to the impact of pollution control on the
general economy. A comparison of these figures with those
shown in the last column indicates that the employment gains
directly associated with pollution control dominate or
exceed the more indirect employment effects in the later
years. However, pollution control capital expenditures
stimulating indirect employment are the primary factor
causing increased total employment up to 1980.
Energy impacts
The direct and indirect impacts of the air and water
pollution controls on energy use can be determined by
comparing the national energy consumption; (in Btu's) in 1985
in the Reference Abatement Scenario (when controls are in
place) with the energy consumption in 1985 for the Reference
Scenario (with approximately the same 1985 GNP but no
incremental abatement controls past 1971). This comparison,
presented by consumer class in Table 5, reveals that total
consumption increased by 4.13 percent with increased
abatement controls. Almost half of tMs increase comes in
the use of energy by electric utilities, which shows a net
increase of 5.40 percent.
Among industrial energy users in 1985, industrial Chemicals
accounted for the largest portion of the net increase of
3.57 percent. Other large increases in energy use were
registered by Steel, Aluminum, and Petroleum. Several
industries increased their electricity consumption
dramatically when pollution abatement was adopted by all
industries. For example, chemicals increased its
electricity consumption by 89 perent, Phosphate Fertilizer
by 71 percent, Aluminum by 31 percent, Steel by 19 percent,
and Plastics by 19 percent.
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Table 5
increase in Energy consumption with Addition
of Abatement to the Reference Case
consumer 1985 Energy use* Percent Change
Class (Trillions of Btu'sO (S2-SD/S1 x 100
SI S2
industrial 26,058.8 26,989.9 3.57
Transportation 24,635.8 25,669.6 4.20
Commercial 7,425.1 7,411.6 -0.19
Residential 9,779.5 10,108.3 3.36
Electric
Utilities 41,110.2 43,328.7 5.40
TOTALS 109,009.3 113,507.4 4.13
Reference Scenario,- S2 = Reference Abatement Scenario.
Ranking of Sectors by
Degree of Economic Change
A final measure of pollution control cost impacts is the
relative effects among economic sectors. Economic data used
to assess these impacts include outputs, construction
expenditures, capital investments, and personal consumption
expenditures. changes in these data for various sectors in
going from the Reference Scenario to the Reference Abatement
Scenario are given in Table 6 for the forecast years of
1977, 1980, 1983, and 1985.
in Table 6(A>, the 10 industries with the greatest
percentage increase in output when comparing the Reference
Abatement Scenario to the Reference Scenario are given. The
different impacts of capital investment and OfiM purchases
for pollution control during the four years can be noted in
the rankings and the percentage changes. For example, the
timing requirements for capital expenditures for pollution
control equipment are evidenced by the New Construction
sector being stimulated by 13.0 percent in 1977 and then
dropping to 6.2 percent in 1980, 3.3 percent in 1983, and
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1.2 percent in 1985. A contrasting pattern is provided by a
major O&M materials supplier, Industrial Chemicals. This
sector is ranked eighth in 1977 (9.9 percent) but rises to
third in 1980 (9.5 percentV, second in 1983 (9.4 percent),
and first in 1985 (10.2 percent). Sectors associated with
the extraction of energy ores and sales of energy show
trends similar to Industrial Chemicals. Similarly, the
peaking and dropoff in ranking of equipment fabrication
sectors is consistent with the Hew construction sector
pattern. For example, note the values and ranks for Pipes,
Valves and .Fittings, Special industrial Machinery, and
Electric Lighting and Wiring Equipment.
The converse of positive output impacts are provided in
Table 6(B), which shows the six industries suffering the
greatest percentage decrease in outputs for each year. The
general categories impacted are mass transit equipment,
minor transportation equipment, and personal clothing items.
The level of impact for these sectors is much less than the
level of impact for stimulated industries. During the late
1970's, the greatest negative impact is only one-third of
the tenth greatest positive impact. For 1983, the level of
negative impacts for the six industries is much higher than
the level found in 1977 and 1980; yet even then the largest
negatively impacted industry is impacted slightly less than
the tenth largest positively impacted industry.
Turning to pollution control cost impacts on construction,
Table 6(C) provides a ranking of the construction industries
that are most stimulated or depressed for the four years.
The sector of Water Systems Construction is high-ranked
throughout the period. The increased demand for energy to
meet pollution control standards is reflected in the
increasing demand for Gas Utilities and Pipeline
Construction and Electric Utility Construction 'through 1985.
The early combined demand for air pollution and water BPT
pollution controls cause Industrial Construction to be
ranked third in 1977. However, later output decreases for
some industries cause Industrial Construction to show minor
declines from 1980 on. In addition, Telephone Construction
is somewhat depressed in 1980 and 1983.
To examine the positive stimulus on capital equipment
investment, Table 6(D) shows those industries with greatest
percentage increases for capital investment. The highest-
ranked industries for each year are usually industries that
would provide equipment and/or maintenance products for
pollution control, Therefore, for each of the four years,
equipment industries appear in the top four: Motor Vehicles
and Parts, and Hardware & Platings.
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Finally, Tables 6(E) and 6(F) provide the major impacted
sectors in terms of percentage change in personal
consumption expenditures (PCE). Table 6
-------
Table 6.
Sectors Ranked by Greatest Percent Change in Economic Variables
Between Reference Abatement Scenario and Reference Scenario
-1977
A. Greatest Percentage Increase In Output
198O
1983
1985
Pipes, Valves,
F i 1 1 1 ngs 19.3
Special Industrial
Machinery 15,3
l
i- Structural Clay
^ Products 13.7
New Construction 13.0
Other Fabricated
Metal Products 12.5
Cement , Concrete
Gypsum 12.1
Industrial Controls 11.9
Industrial Chemicals 9.9
Elec. Lighting
and Wiring 9. 1
Lumber and Wood
Products 7 .9
Pipes, Valves, Pipes, Valves,
Fittings 16.9 Fittings
Special Industrial Industrial
Machinery 12.1 Chemicals
Industrial Crude Petroleum
Chemicals 9.5 Natural Gas
Crude Petroleum Special Industrial
Natural Gas 6.5 Machinery
New Construction
Chemical Fert.
Mining
Auto Repair
Elec. Lighting
and Wiring
Natural Gas
Pipel ines
6.2 Auto Repair
5.6 Natural Gas
Chemical Fert.
5.6 Mining
5.5 Pipelines
Complete Guided
5.2 Missiles
Misc. Chemical
5 . 1 Products
Industrial
11.0 Chemicals
Crude Petrol eun
9.4 Natural Gas
7.3 Natural Gas
6.8 Auto Repair
Chemical Fert.
6.6 M i n 1 ng
6.1 Pipelines
Complete Guided
5.7 Missiles
5 . 7 Lead
Petroleum
4.6 Refining
Misc. Chemical
4.2 Products
10.2
8.O
7.5
7. 1
6.3
6.2
4.4
4,2
4. 1
4.0
-------
Table 6. (Continued)
Sectors Ranked by Greatest Percent Change 1n Economic Variables
Between Reference Abatement Scenario and Reference Scenario
1977
B. Greatest Percentage Decrease 1n Output (Continued)
1980 1983
1985
Cycles, Minor Trans.
Equ1pment -1.0
Buses and Local
Transit -0.8
Apparel -O.8
Footwear -O.7
Leather and Ind.
Leather Products -O,4
Knitting -O.4
Construction, Mining
Oil Field Machinery -2.6
Buses and Local
Transit
-2.5
Railroad Equipment -2.5
Cycles, Minor Trans.
Equipment -2.1
Apparel
Uewelry and
Silverware
-2.1
-1.8
Construction, Mining,
Oil Field Machinery -3.9
Buses and Local
Transit -3.4
Machine Tools,
Metal Forming -2.9
Railroad Equipment -2.3.
Machine Tools,
Me.tal Cutting -1.8
Cycles, Minor
Trans, Equipment -1.6
Buses and Local
Transit -3.6
Constr., Mining
Oil Field Mach. -3.4
Apparel -2.1
Machine Tools,
Metal Forming -2.0
Cycles, Minor
Trans. Equip. -1.6
Footwear -1.6
Sewer Systems
Water Systems
Gas Utilities and
P i pe 1 i nes
Industrial
Electric Utilities
Telephone
170.1
107. S
9.2
3.1
2.7
1.2
C. Greatest Percentage Changes in Construction Sectors
Water Systems 58.5 Water Systems
Sewer Systems
Gas Utilities and
Pipelines
39.1
Hotels, Motels, and
Dormitories -0.1
6.2.
Electric Utilities 3.4
Te1ephone -1.7
Stores, Restaurants,
and Garages
Industrial
Gas UtilIties and
Pipelines
Electric Utilities
Telephone
Industrial
23.6
5.2
2.9
-1.O
-2.1
Water Systems 17.O
Gas Utilities and
Pipelines 6.8
Electric Utilities 3.0
Industrial -O.9
-------
Table 6, (Continued)
Sectors Ranked by Greatest Percent Change In Economic Variables
Between Reference Abatement Scenario and Reference Scenario
1977
198O
1983
1985
D. Greatest Percentage Increase in Capital Investment
it*
i
Hardware, Plating 161.5
Engineering and
Scientific Instru.
Motor Vehicles and
Parts
Industrial
Chemicals
Trucking Services
Auto Repair
Petroleum Refining
Natural Gas
76.0
71.8
66. 1
Hardware, Plating 129.5
Motor Vehicles and
Parts 114.3
Engineering and
Scientific Instru. 106.5
Engineering and
Scientific Instru.
Canned and Frozen
Foods 53.8
85.0
Hardware, Plating 83.1
Motor Vehicles and
Parts 58.1
Canned and Frozen
Foods 37.7
E. Greatest Percentage Increase in
33.7 Trucking Services 46.6
9.8 Auto Repair 9.1
5.2 Petroleum Refining 5.3
3.8 Natural Gas 4.4
PCE (all sectors > 1.OX)
Trucking Services 56.3
Auto Repair 11.O
Petroleum Refining 6.4
Natural Gas 5.O
Hardware, Plating 29.1
Motor Vehicles and
Parts 17.7
Industrial
Chemicals
14.3
Canned and Frozen
Foods 13.4
Trucking Services 61.8
Auto Repair 12.O
Petroleum Refining 7.0
Natural Gas 5.3
-------
Table 6. (Continued)
Sectors Ranked by Greatest Percent Change in Economic Variables
Between Reference Abatement Scenario and Reference Scenario
1977
1980
1983
1985
oo
Rat 1 roads
Buses & Local Trans. -2.7
F. Greatest Percentage Decrease in PCE (PCE for sector > 10OM$)
-2.8 Buses & Local Trans. -4.6 Buses & Local Trans. -5.9
Non-Contpet 111 ve
Imports
-3.1
Cycles, Minor Trans.
Equipment -2.5
Pottery
-1.8
Cycles, Minor Trans.
Equipment -1 .a
Pottery -3.1
Cycles, Minor Trans.
Glass
-1.0
Equ1pment
Apparel
-2.4
-2.1
Pottery
Footwear
Air!ines
-2.2
-1 .9
-1 .8
Buses & Local Trans. -6.0
Pottery
-2.6
Cycles, Minor Trans.
Equipment -2.5
Apparel
Footwear
-2.2
-2.1
-------
THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF TOTAL
POLLUTION CONTROL EXPENDITURES
Earlier in this analysis, the costs to control air and water
pollution were stated in terms of dollars expended over a
relatively short time period, 1976-1985. The amount and
timing of expenditures during the next 10 years is
important, but the impression should not be left that total
expenditures decline radically after the first round of
investments in pollution equipment.
Figure 1 shows investment and total annual costs (annualized
capital plus O&M) for air and water pollution control in the
Reference Abatement Scenario. Although the year-by-year
expenditures are assumptions, the general trends of the
lines are reasonable estimates of expenditures, given the
overall assumptions of the Reference Abatement Scenario.
Table 7 shows the annual capital and O&M expenditures
required of the industrial sector from 1972-1985. Note that
in the case of air investment expenditures, Electric
Utilities and other industrial sources demonstrate a peaking
of capital expenditures during the 1973-78 period with very
small annual increments to investment expenditures by 1985.
The total annual costs for stationary sources also grow and
then level off after 1980. No such leveling off is
witnessed for water pollution total annual costs, but this
might occur just a few years beyond 1985 since effluent
regulations after 1983 may require lower increases in
pollution costs after 1985.
4-319
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Air
Table 7.
industrial Sector Annual
pollution Control Expenditures
(Billions 1975 Dollars)»
Water
Total
Year
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Annual.
Capital
0.5
1.3
2.5
3.6
4.0
4.7
5.5
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.7
O&M
0.4
1.0
1.8
2.8
3.5
4.1
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
Annual .
Capital
—
-
0.7
1.6
2.1
3.0
3.6
4.4
5.4
6.3
7.2
7.9
8.0
8.2
O&M
_
_
1.2
2.7
3.6
4.8
5.9
6.4
6.9
7.3
7.5
7.9
11.1
11.5
Annual .
Capital
0.5
1.3
3.2
5.2
6.1
7.7
9.1
10.3
11.5
12.6
13.6
14.4
14.7
14.9
O&M
0.4
1.0
3.0
5.5
7.1
8.9
10.4
11.4
12.1
12.6
12.9
13.2
16.4
16.8
Parts may not sum to total because of rounding.
4-120
-------
Figure 1.
Annual investments and Total Annual Costs for
Air and Water Pollution Control, 1976-1985
4-121
-------
Considering o&M expenditures alone, these expenditures for
industries are approximately $16.8 billion by 1985 for air
and water pollution control combined (see Table 7). Water
O&M expenditures make up the largest part of this total, 69
percent. The industrial sectors making the largest water
pollution control O&M expenditures in 1985 are:
O&M Expenses
(Billion 1975$)
Percent of Total
Industrial Water
O&M
Machinery and
Equipment 6.45
Chemicalsfertilizers
and Plastics 1.83
Food Processing 0.77
Ferrous Metals 0.68
Pulp and Paper 0.61
55.9
15.8
6.7
5.9
5.3
A great part of these water pollution control o&M
expenditures go for labor expenses. This is not true for
air pollution control O&M expenditures however, as shown in
Table 8.
Table 8.
1985 O&M Expenditures and Direct Labor
Requirements for Pollution
Control by Industries
Water Pollution Control
Air Pollution Control
O&M
(Billions
1975$)
11.5
5.3
Direct
Labor
(1,000's)
389
20
Employees
Million $
33.83
3.77
Based on these figures, the average water pollution control
O&M expenditures in 1985 are stimulating direct employment
of 33,830 jobs per billion dollars of water pollution
control O&M expenditure. At the same time, the average air
pollution control O&M expenditures are creating 3,770 jobs
4-122
-------
per billion aollars of air pollution control O&M
expenditures. These figures give some idea of the potential
employment impacts of O&M expenditures, which will continue
beyond 1985.
4-123
-------
Appendix A
The SEAS System
SEAS is a system of interdependent models and computer
programs developed by EPA to assess the future economic and
environmental consequences of Federal pollution control
policies. Structurally, the system consists of a number of
special-purpose models linked to the University of
Maryland's INFORUM, an interindustry input-output model of
the economy. The INFORUM model develops economic forecasts
through 1985 based on alternative sets of demographic and
macroeconomic assumptions specified by the user. in turn,
these forecasts form the basic economic inputs used by the
other models in SEAS to develop their more specialized
forecasts.
A generalized overview of the SEAS system is presented in
Figure A-l. AS indicated by the dashed-lined box, two
special-purpose SEAS models have been integrated into a
common program with INFORUM: INSIDE, which provides greater
detail on industrial sector output, and ABATE, which
contains cost functions for abatement technologies.
Together, these three models form the national economic
forecasting program for the SEAS system. This program is
fed by two data bases: one contains economic and pollution
abatement costs data; the other, data on commodity relative
prices. A feedback loop between the national economic
program and the PRICES model allows relative price
adjustments to be reflected in the SEAS economic forecasts.
The final output file, containing annual economic and
abatement cost forecasts through 1985, provides input data
for six other special-purpose SEAS models:
* RESGEN - Estimates the annual tonnage of pollutant
residuals from various industrial sources.
• PTRANS - Estimates the passenger transportation
activity levels and residuals.
• FTRANS - Estimates the freight transportation activity
levels and residuals.
• ENERGY - Develops forecasts of energy consumption by
consumer class and fuel category.
• STOCKS - Provides information on the price and
availability of critical virgin stocks.
• SOLRECYC - Estimates the annual tonnage of solid waste
and recycled materials.
A-l
-------
Appendix A
The SEAS System
SEAS is a system of interdependent models and computer
programs developed by EPA to assess the future economic and
environmental consequences of Federal pollution control
policies. Structurally, the system consists of a number of
special-purpose models linked to the University of
Maryland's INFORUM, an interindustry input-output model of
the economy. The INFORUM model develops economic forecasts
through 1985 based on alternative sets of demographic and
macroeconomic assumptions specified by the user. m turn
these forecasts form the basic economic inputs used by the
other models in SEAS to develop their more specialized
forecasts.
A generalized overview of the SEAS system is presented in
Figure A-l. As indicated by the da&hed-lined box, two
special-purpose SEAS models have been integrated into a
common program with INFORUM: INSIDE, which provides greater
detail on industrial sector output, and ABATE, which
contains cost functions for abatement technologies.
Together, these three models form the national economic
forecasting program for the SEAS system. This program is
fed by two data bases: one contains economic and pollution
abatement costs data; the other, data on commodity relative
prices. A feedback loop between the national economic
program and the PRICES model allows relative price
adjustments to be reflected in the SEAS economic forecasts.
The final output file, containing annual economic and
abatement cost forecasts through 1985, provides input data
for six other special-purpose SEAS models:
• RESGEN - Estimates the annual tonnage of pollutant
residuals from various industrial sources.
• PTRANS - Estimates the passenger transportation
activity levels and residuals.
• FTRANS - Estimates the freight transportation activity
levels and residuals.
• ENERGY - Develops forecasts of energy consumption by
consumer class and fuel category.
• STOCKS - Provides information on the price and
availability of critical virgin stocks.
• SOLRECYC - Estimates the annual tonnage of solid waste
and recycled materials.
A-l
-------
Summary output from these six models, as well as the
national economic program, is then collected in a common
file for the production of summary reports.
A-2
-------
Figure A-l.
Generalized Flowchart for the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS}
-------
A description of the major functions performed by each of
the SEAS models shown in Figure A-l is presented below.
This discussion of SEAS models emphasizes the computation of
abatement costs and their associated economic feedbacks as a
subsystem of the overall model structure.
THE INTERINDUSTRY ECONOMIC
FORECASTING MODEL(INFORUM)
The INFORUM model is a 185-sector input-output model which
projects future economic activity using structural
relationships between economic and demographic variables.
These projections determine total demands for the outputs of
185 industrial sectors, and the model then allocates these
demands to the specific markets, or buying sectors, to which
these products are sold. Thus, the model differentiates
between intermediate demands and final demands.
Intermediate demands are generated by sales from one
industry to other producing industries. Final demands
consist of government expenditures, exports, imports
(expressed as negative exports), purchases by consumers,
changes in inventories, and savings and investment. These
final demand components make up what is commonly referred to
as the Gross National Product (GNP).
Figure A-2 displays a flow diagram of the INFORUM model.
The column of boxes on the far left of the diagram represent
factors which are specified outside the model. The solution
procedure used is as detailed below.
A trial value of disposable income is coupled with a set of
relative prices, allowing personal consumption expenditures
to be calculated. These results, combined with the
projections of households and interest rates, are used to
determine expenditures for certain types of construction.
Sales to construction investment by each industry are then
determined by applying the C-matrix coefficients. In a
similar manner, the sales by each industry to the government
categories are determined by setting assumptions concerning
government policy and defense planning into the G-matrix.
Outputs of previous years and assumptions regarding the
costs of capital are used to forecast investment in producer
durable equipment and industry-related construction.
investment by industry is then determined by running these
forecasts through the C- and B-matrices. This completes
determination of total final demands.
A-4
-------
The A-matrix of coefficients serves to convert total final
demands to total product outputs by individual industries.
Net imports and inventory changes for each industry are
computed simultaneously. Labor productivities are then
derived from changes in output and capital investment.
Employment is determined by dividing the product outputs by
labor productivity, if this result, when subtracted from
labor force projections, yields a level of unemployment
inconsistent with the specified input to the model (i.e.,
less than 4 percent), the disposable income assumption is
modified and calculations begin anew. otherwise, the
outputs generated by the model, coupled with the projections
of factors outside the model, are applied to forecast the
next year's economic activity.
For most scenarios run for this report, official government
forecasts of productivity and unemployment were used in
place of those estimated by the IKFORUM model arid supplied
by the university of Maryland. These higher productivity
forecasts of the Bureau of Labor Statistics were entered
into INFORUM exogenously. Personal disposable income was
then adjusted as necessary in each scenario to calibrate
unemployment to government forecasts. For these scenarios,
INFORUM.was thus used to compute the redistribution of
intermediate sales among industrial sectors required to meet
the government projections.
A-5
-------
Figure A-2.
Flow Diagram of the inforinn Model with Solution Procedure
A-6
-------
THE SECTOR DISAGGREGATION
MODEL (INSIDE)
The INSIDE model performs two important functions: (1) it
projects subindustry outputs at the level of detail required
for environmental assessment; and (2) it forecasts changes
in industrial growth due to technological substitution.
INFORUM is an economic forecasting model which was not
specifically designed to deal with environmental issues and
detail. Hence, the different goods and services produced
within any single INFORUM sector may have significantly
different pollution or demand levels. Similarly,
alternative processes may be available within a sector for
producing the same material or product.
Special equations, termed side equations, are introduced by
the INSIDE model to enable SEAS to account for
environmentally-important product and process technology
details not available directly from INFORUM. These
equations disaggregate the annual sector outputs in dollars
from INFORUM into annual outputs in physical units at a more.
detailed subsector level. For example, there are several
hundred major chemicals embedded within INFORUM Sector 55,
which projects economic activity for all industrial
chemicals. However, the manufacture of nitric acid
generates the vast majority of nitrogen oxide emissions
produced by this industry. About 80 percent of the nitric
acid manufactured is sold to fertilizers and miscellaneous
chemicals, whereas Sector 55 sells over 50 percent of its
general output to plastics, non-cellulosic fibers, cleaning
and toilet preparations, miscellaneous chemicals, and
paints. As a result the growth rate of nitric acid alone
does not parallel the aggregate growth of all industrial
chemicals in Sector 55. Thus, relating nitrogen oxide
residual generation to nitric acid demand in other sectors
rather than to the aggregate growth of Sector 55 gives a
more accurate projection of nitrogen oxide emissions and
control costs.
Technological substitutions in SEAS are treated in INSIDE by
substitutions occurring among two to four alternative
materials, processes, or products within a given industry.
Examples of two-, three-, and four-way substitutions are
presented belows
A-7
-------
Table A-l.
Example of Technological substitutions in SEAS
Type of Alternative
Substitution Commodity Processes
2_way Chlorine <1> Mercury Cell
(2V Diaphragm Cell
3-way Steel (i> Electric Arc
(2) Basic Oxygen
(3) Open Hearth
4-way Non-Nucleair d) Coal
Electric utilities (2) Oil
(3) Gas
(4) Other
The user specifies the substitution ratio for each material,
product, or process as the fraction of a commodity produced
by each alternative process. The rate of substitution based
upon these initial fractions is also determined through user
inputs. Thus, the INSIDE, side equations can reflect the
growth of the diaphragm cell manufacturing process for
chlorine at the expense of the market share for the mercury
cell process.
THE ABATEMENT COST AND FEEDBACK
MODEL (ABATE)
The ABATE model estimates the investment costs and the
operation and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with the
control of air and water pollution for all significant
polluting industries. It also provides feedback concerning
the consequent increases in capital investments, employment
requirements, consumption levels, and economic demands to
INFORUM. The INFORUM model then uses this data to
dynamically rebalance its forecasts of economic activity and
produce revised estimates of such macrostatistics as GNP and
unemployment, as well as relative shifts in interindustry
demands and outputs.
The input data required by the ABATE model was compiled
through research into the technological control options and
A-8
-------
their associated costs to meet environmental standards. The
data used in the model corresponds directly to the industry-
by-industry descriptions of abatement activity given in
Sections Two and Three of this report. Some of the more
important data inputs are discussed below:
1. All Categories Except Municipal Wastewater Treatment.
The following data was developed for input to the ABATE
model for all cost categories other than municipal
wastewater treatment:
a. An inventory of plants, including size distribution of
the total capacity of the industry category for a base
year, was developed using the best information
available from one or more of the following sources:
• Researcher files
• Trade associations
• Professional societies
• Directories of plants
• Periodic publications
• Government research documents.
b. Capital cost functions and O&M cost functions were
specified for each standard (State Implementation
Plans, Best Practicable Technology, Best Available
Technology, and/or New Source Performance Standards).
These functions relate cost to the physical measure of
plant capacity used in the plant inventory. For
industry categories involved in water pollution
abatement, cost functions were developed for both the
full in-plant treatment and pretreatment options.
c. For each industry category, capital and O&M costs were
allocated as purchases from INFORUM sectors on the
basis of the technology option(s) associated with the
category.
d. The average life of the abatement equipment and a
nominal interest rate of 10 percent were specified for
each industry category to enable the model to calculate
annualized capital costs.
e. Compliance years for each standard which applies to. the
industry category and also the year after which all new
plant construction starts must meet New Source
Performance Standards were specified.
f. The number of years over which capital expenditures for
each standard are expected to be spread and the
A-9
-------
fractions of expenditures for each of these years were
specified.
g. For industry categories involved in water pollution
abatement, the percent of total capacity in each plant
capacity class for each industry which discharges
pretreated wastewater to municipal system was
specified.
h. Annual investments and OSM costs for the control of air
emissions from mobile sources and electric utilities
were entered into the ABATE model exogenously for
computation of feedback effects and aggregate air
pollution abatement costs.
i. Pollution control costs reflect only abatement
equipment and O&M expenditures in these simulations.
Therefore, if a less polluting production process is
adopted by an industry, a decrease in pollution control
costs results.
2. Municipal Wastewater Treatment Data. The following
data were developed as inputs to ABATE for municipal
wastewater treatment (Municipal expenditures for this report
were exogeneously expressed based on projected Government
appropriations for sewage treatment facilities. The ABATE
model was thus not used to calculate municipal costs, but
the feedback features of SEAS were used to estimate the
economic, employment, and energy impacts of these costs.):
&. Population served and per capita wastewater flow for
each forecast year;
b. Capital and O&M cost functions for primary and
secondary treatment and the cost functions for
upgrading of secondary treatment;
c. Percent of wastevater flow to each treatment type and
the average treatment plant size in each type;
d. Percent of total population whose wastewater needs are
net either by replacement of previous treatment or by
upgrading from primary to secondary or from secondary
to tertiary, by year-
e. A similar collection of factors, percentages and cost
curves for interceptor sewer costs, and for combined
sewer overflow remedy costs; and
I
f. The wastewater flow generated by industies which divert
their wastewater to municipal facilities for treatment.
A-10
-------
The ABATE cost model uses the two types of data discussed
above to generate aggregated abatement costs for each
industry and for municipal treatment facilities in a
straightforward manner, as follows:
1. Industrial Abatement Costs. The model forecasts yearly
capacity for each industry using growth rates calculated
from the corresponding INFORUM sector or subsector and
initial plant capacity class data. The new capacity is
distributed among the industry's plant capacity classes as
specified by the user. Capital costs are then calculated
for the average plant in each plant capacity class using the
appropriate cost function (depending on the year and whether
the plant must meet New Source Performance Standards). The
model then sums costs across classes to get total capital
costs for the year. For water categories, the model derives
the costs using , both the pretreatment and full treatment
cost functions, depending on the fraction of capacity in
each plant size class using municipal facilities. For these
water categories, ABATE also calculates the total volume of
wastewater discharged to municipal facilities, which is used
to estimate investment recovery and user charges. Finally,
the model uses equipment life and a 10 percent interest rate
to annualize the capital costs.
ABATE performs a similar aggregation of O&M costs for
industries. However, for existing plants, the expenditures
do not begin until the compliance year is reached.
Moreover, the model need not keep track of O&M expenditures
spread over several years as it must do for capital costs.
The O&M costs calculated by ABATE for a given year create a
demand for resources that is reflected through feedbacks
which modify the output levels for the affected INFORUM
sectors. in turn, these changed output levels result in
different sector growth rates, from which the abatement
costs are recalculated for that year. ABATE and INFORUM are
self-correcting as they use growth rates which are
constantly being revised.
2. Municipal Abatement Costs. The municipal portion of
ABATE calculates costs associated with building and
upgrading treatment plants, with laying interceptor and
collector sewer lines., and with the control of the combined
sewer overflow problem. The new wastewater flow needing
treatment in any year is based on incremental flow from
industrial dischargers to municipal systems and that part of
the non-indus.trial flow that needs replacement or upgrading.
This new flow is allocated to treatment type (primary,
secondary, or tertiary). Average plant sizes by type are
then used to determine the number of new plants to be
constructed. Capital and operating cost (minus the
A-ll
-------
operating cost of plants replaced) functions are used to
determine total cost based on plants to be constructed and
their average, size. The amount of this cost to be fed back
into INFORUM is adjusted by a user-specified factor
indicating the proportion of this total not already
accounted for in the INFORUM baseline. A similar procedure
is used to determine costs for interceptors and collectors,
and for correction of combined sewer overflow through use of
incremental cost functions for these categories.
Annualized costs for municipal wastewater treatment are
partially allocated back to an industrial source based upon
the fraction of total wastewater flow it contributes. This
fraction is applied against the O&M charges for municipal
treatment to yield user charges. Municipal investment
recovery is computed by applying this fraction to capital
costs,; with payment in equal annual installments over a 30-
year period with no interest applied. Calculations of
abatement expenditures for sewers and for the combined sewer
overflow (eso) problem is similar except that population
needing sewers is distributed among city sizes, and
population needing CSO correction is distributed among
population groups. Hence, ABATE aggregate costs are
computed by city size and by population group to obtain
total expenditures for correcting the sewer and 'CSO
problems, respectively.
For the pollution abatement scenarios run for this report,
annual investments in municipal sewage treatment facilities
were exogenousl-y specified, based on the total projected
funds available from Federal, state, and local governments.
The computations of annualized municipal treatment costs and
user, charges were thus constrained by anticipated funding
limitations.
THE RELATIVE COMMODITY
PRICE MODEL (PRICES)
The SEAS PRICES model, also adopted from the University of
Maryland, provides INFORUM with relative indexes of prices
among commodities. Two runs of INFORUM for each scenario
are required to make use of the PRICES model. The first run
of INFORUM produces a different distribution of inter-
industry sales than that assumed in creating the original
set of price indexes. The PRICES model is then run to
generate a modified set of relative prices to be used by
INFORUM. The model modifies prices of output from each
sector based on time-lagged constant-price output for the
A-12
-------
sector, lagged unit material costs, and lagged unit labor
costs. Abatement impacts on prices are included' in the
modifications as well as the impact of the redistribution-of
sales. Once the modified prices are determined, the INFORUM
model is then rerun to provide a new forecast of the economy
which takes into account the modified prices.
THE INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENTAL
RESIDUALS MODEL {RESGEN)
RESGEN estimates the annual national pollutant residuals
associated with industrial production, municipal treatment,
and electric utility processes for six media: air, water,
solid waste, le'achates, pesticides, and radiation. It does
not estimate motor vehicle' emissions, storm water run-off
residuals, 6r emissions from honpoint sources of pollution
(which consists of residuals associated with land use
activities,' such as agriculture, forestry, mining and
drilling, and construction).' Resi'duals for these three
types of pollution are currently estimated outside of SEAS
except for motor vehicle emissions, which are forecast by
PTRANS and FTRANS. For all other significant polluting
industries and utilities, RESGEN initially forecasts the
gross pollutant emissions that would occur from each if no
abatement activity had occurred pursuant to the 1970
Amendments to the Clean Air Act or the 1972 Amendments to
the Federal water Pollution Control Act. Then it estimates
primary net residuals, assuming that some specified level of
pollution abatement activity (including none) is occurring.
The difference between gross residuals and net residuals for
each industry is the captured residuals, which include
recyclable wastes. RESGEN also generates estimates of
significant secondary residuals produced by the pollution
treatment processes themselves. (See Figure A-3.)
A-13
-------
Figure A-3.
RESGEH Estimation Process Flowchart
CAPTURED
RESIDUALS
INDUSTRIAL
PROCESS
GROSS
RESIDUALS
TREATMENT
PROCESS
.-.PRIMARY NET
RESIDUALS
SECONDARY RESIDUALS
CREATED BY TREATMENT
(E.G., SLUDGES)
A-14
-------
As in the case of ABATE, the input data used by RESGEfl
corresponds directly to the pollution emissions reductions
discussed in the industry summaries in Sections Two and
Three for and water residuals. The primary data consists of
gross residual coefficients for specified years and
associated fractions of total wasteload treated, average
removal efficiencies, and rates at which waste materials are
recycled or converted to secondary residuals as percentages
of captured residuals.
THE TRANSPORTATION MODELS
(PTRANS AND FTRANS)
The two transportation models, PTRANS and PTRANS, use annual
forecasts of vehicle miles travelled by automobile, bus,
truck, rail, commuter rail-; and airplane to estimate the air
pollution emissions for passenger and freight transportation
vehicles in six residual categories: hydrocarbons, carbon
monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, lead, and
particulates.
For a given calendar year, the PTRANS model uses the
disposable income forecast from INFORUM and the population
forecast to determine the number of new vehicles on the
road, it uses data-from the 1974 National Transportation
Study for vehicle miles travelled by transportation mode and
occupancy ratios to distribute the VMT forecast among
intracity (auto, bus, rapid transit, railroad) and intercity
(auto, air, bus, railroad) transportation modes. Then it
uses EPA emissions factors to forecast net residuals for the
year. In the case of automobiles, PTRANS also utilizes
input data indicating the distribution of cars on the road
by model year to forecast these residuals.
Freight ton-mile projections are computed by the FTRANS
model by applying INFORUM growth rates for freight sectors
to base year data for freight ton-miles drawn from
Department of Transportation studies. Modal splits and
weight loading factors are then applied to develop forecasts
of vehicle miles travelled for trucks, rail, water, air, and
pipelines. Pollutant emissions are then estimated by
applying emission factors to each freight transportation
mode. Again, these emissions represent net residuals.
A-15
-------
THE ENERGY USE MODEL (ENERGY)
ENERGY estimates energy use by consumer class (industrial,
commercial, residential, transportation, electric utility
consumption, ana elec.tricity generation) and fuel category
based on INFORUM annual output forecasts for the 185
economic sectors. For each fuel category, it also reports
whether the fuel is used for combustion or as a raw material
feedstock by the consumer class. The . model provides a
detailed accounting of all fuel usage in quadrillions (10*s)
of Btu's based on the interindustry relationships in INFORUM
at the time the sector output forecasts are made.
.Because the energy forecasts are based on the INFORUM annual
outputs, any supply constraints caused by relative price
adjustments are introduced into the forecasts. The relative
price .adjustments might have resulted ,frojn .changed fuel
stock levels (STOCKS, model) or from pollution abatement
feedback into IBFORUM (ABATE model). Consequently, ENERGY
is sensitive to a wide range of conservation and abatement
assumptions.
THE STOCKS RESERVES AND PRICES
MODEL (STOCKS)
The STOCKS model in SEAS provides information on raw
material sources, reserve levels, and relative production
costs .under alternative assumptions regarding import,
export, and inventory levels. The mod,el maintains accounts
for both domestic and world-wide reserves as a function of
relative production prices. Currently, twelve stock
categories are included, of which six are fuels and six are
non-fuel minerals. Overrides for prices, investments,
imports, and exports concerning these stocks are generated
by STOCKS as optional feedbacks to the national economic
models.
THE SOLID WASTE AND RECYCLING
MODEL (SOLRECYC)
The SEAS SOLRECYC model estimates the annual tonnage of
solid waste generated from non-industrial sources the
expected proportional use of various disposal methods' and
the costs associated with each disposal method. The'model
A-16
-------
also projects estimated levels of recycling, which are fed
to the STOCKS model for adjustment of raw material demands.
THE SUMMARY REPORT GENERATORS
(POSTCOMP, INFRPT AND CLEANSUM)
As shown in Figure A-l, each of the special-purpose models
discussed above produces its ovn detailed output report. In
addition to these detailed reports, summary data from these
models, as well as from the national economic program, are
collected in a common data file for production of summary
reports. Three types of report generators were used to
assist in the assessment of pollution control impacts:
• POSTCOMP, which provides annual data values and
annualized percentage changes for significant
parameters from every SEAS model, as well as
comparative indexes for pollutant residuals produced by
each of up to four scenarios;
• INFRPT, which provides comparative percentage
differences and sector rankings in INFORUM economic
results for selected scenario pairs,- and
• CLEANSUM, which provides annual abatement costs and
residuals for each SEAS economic sector.
Run books for the seven scenarios described in this Section
are maintained on file at EPA. These books contain both the
detailed model outputs as well as the summary reports
produced for each scenario.
A-17
-------
Appendix B
Scenario Assumptions
REFERENCE SCENARIO
The comparative scenario approach of Section Four requires
that a set of assumptions constituting a baseline or
Reference Scenario, be developed and used for comparative
analysis of scenarios. The consequences of alternative
assumptions concerning public policy can then be measured
against this baseline. The purpose of the Reference
Scenario is thus to establish a useful benchmark of general
assumptions for comparative analysis- it is not intended to
provide predictions of the most probable future.
The Reference Scenario for this study is based on
assumptions about future trends and policies from 1976
through 1985. These assumptions, in general, represent
official forecasts of the future made by appropriate
government agencies in their specific areas of
responsibility (e.g., population growth by the Bureau of the
Census). Table B-l presents the government agencies from
which forecasts were obtained. Where appropriate, values
for these forecasts are also given-.
B-l
-------
Table B-l.
Reference Scenario Assumptions
Assumption
Population-Series E
Projections
(Millions of People)
Labor Force
(Millions of People)
Labor Productivity
Gross National Product
(Trillions of 1975
Dollars)
Forecast Time Period
Unemployment Rate in
1985 (Full Employment
Economy)
Federal Expenditures in
1980 and 1985 Excluding
Transfers and Pollution
Control Programs
(Millions 1975 Dollars)
Federal Expenditures
for Pollution
Control
Government
Agency
Department of
Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Ford/Council of
Economic Advisors
(1975-1980)
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(1980-1985)
EPA
Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Department of
Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
EPA
values
1975-213.9
1980-224.1
1985-235.7
1975- 93.8
1980-101.8
1985-107.7
varies by
Industry
1975-1.47
1976-1.57
1977-1.69
1978-1.81
1979-1.85
1980-1.99
1985-2.40
1/1/76-
12/31/85
4.0 to
4.5%
1980-156,400
1985-173,400
B-2
-------
The GNP and unemployment rate estimates selected for the
Reference Scenario are intended to represent the current
best estimates of what can be achieved nationally between
1975 and 1985, through a combination of public sector
monetary ana fiscal policies. The Reference Scenario target
objectives for the GNP and its components for 1975 through
1985 represent a combination of the Council of Economic
Advisors (CEA) and U.S. Office of Management and Budget
(OMB) forecasts for the period of 1975 through 1980, and the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projected economic growth
for the 1981-1985 period, as contained in The Structure of
the U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985 (U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 1831, op.cit.K
Assumptions about labor force and labor productivity used
are those contained in the BLS projections with the greatest
long-run likelihood based upon GNP supply-oriented (or
potential-GNP) concepts. These projections are used since
they are tempered by personal income, demand, and
demogr.aphic change considerations.
A steadily declining unemployment rate through the forecast
period is required to be consistent with both the GNP
forecasts and assumptions about labor force and productivity
for the Reference Scenario. The unemployment rate thus
declines monotonically over the period from the high rates
of the mid-1970's to a rate between 4.0 and 4.5 percent in
the mid-1980's. The annual changes in productivity
presented in the Reference Scenario are those assumed in the
BLS projections (Structure o_f the U.S^ Economy in 1980 and
1985, op.cit.. Chapters 1 and 2 and Appendix A). These
assumptions concerning GNP, the labor force, and labor
productivity replace, for the Reference scenario, those
originally used in the INFORUM projections (Almon, et al.f
1985; Interindustry Forecasts of the American Economy.
The Reference Scenario assumptions also include the setting
of Federal expenditures for non-pollution-control activities
in 1975 dollars (excluding transfers) at $156,400 million in
1980 ($106,060 million and $50,340 million, defense and non-
defense, respectively) and $173,400 million in 1985
($115,200 million and $58,200 million, defense and non-
defense, respectively), vith interpolation used to generate
forecasts for intervening years. In addition, personal
disposable income per capita is adjusted to produce, using
INFORUM, the desired GNP and unemployment targets specified
above.
The Reference Scenario represents a calibration of the SEAS
system to the assumed GNP projections and unemployment rates
B-3
-------
in the absence of pollution control expenditures induced by
Federal legislation. This does not mean that there are no
pollution control expenditures implied in the Reference
Scenario because there are substantial levels of such
investments which would have been incurred even in the
absence of federally legislated abatement policies. The
levels for these expenditures were taken from forecasts
developed by EPA.
The Reference Scenario is intended to reflect neither an
unusually high energy consumption rate nor an unrealistic
energy conservation effort. The energy consumption
assumptions contained in the Federal Energy Administration's
Project Independence report for the "Business as Usual"
case, with oil at $7 per barrel, were thus used in the
Scenario. The assumptions are summarized in Table B-2 in
terms of the projected total gross consumption of energy
resources in trillions of Btu's by fuel source.
Table B-2.
United States Total Gross
Consumption of Energy Resources
(Business-as-Usual Without Conservation - $7/Bbl Oil)1
Fuel 1972 -1977 1980 1985
Coal 12,495 16,854 18,074 19,888
Petroleum 32,966 37,813 41,595 47,918
Natural Gas 23,125 21,558 22,934 23,947
Nuclear Power 576 2,830 4,842 12,509
Other 2,946 3,543 4,014 4,797
Totals 72,108 82,598 91,459 109,059
Source: Project independence Report F Federal Energy
Administration, Appendix Al, p.37, November 1974.
* Data shown is in trillions of Btu's.
B-4
-------
REFERENCE ABATEMENT SCENARIO
The Reference Abatement Scenario differs from the Reference
Scenario in that it includes among its assumptions the
incremental pollution control practices, along with their
attendant employment, costs, and effects on residuals,
necessary to achieve compliance with Federal legislation.
(Municipal costs are based on available Federal subsidy
funds rather than compliance regulations for purposes of
this report.) Most of the unit cost data used for
calculation of these costs in SEAS was provided in constant
1973 dollars. Since the INFORUM data is currently expressed
in constant 1971 dollars, it was necessary to first deflate
the abatement cost input values from 1973 to 1971 dollars,
and then to inflate the computed results back to 1975
dollars for presentation in this report. The deflation and
inflation factors used for these purposes are presented in
Table B-3.
Abatement costs are computed and analyzed in terms of annual
investment, annual 0&M costs, annualized capital costs,
capital-in-place, and number of employees directly engaged
in pollution control activities. Total annual costs are
computed as the sum of annual O&M costs and annualized
capital costs. The annualized capital costs are derived by
applying to the annual investment amounts a capital recovery
factor of:
N
U+i) - 1
where "i" is the annual interest rate expressed as a
fraction and "N" is the life of the abatement equipment in
years. For these calculations, a nominal interest rate of
10 percent is assumed for both the private and public
sectors and abatement equipment life varies with the type of
control technology being applied.
B-5
-------
Table B-3
Summary of Inflation and Deflation Factors'
Type of Capital' O&M*
Abatement Cost Sources 1973-71 1971-75 1973-71 1971-7S
Water Engineering News Record 0.879 1.33O 0..898 1.295
AHr-Electrostatic Joy Manufacturing Co., O.7O8 2.136 O.9O9 1.718
Predpltator Nelson Electricity
.. Cost Index
CD
os Air-Bu1lding Chemical Engineering 0.943 1.541 O.9O9 1.718
Evacuation Plant Cost Index,
Nelson Electricity
Cost Index
Air-Fuel Switching, Chemical Engineering- O.943 1.541 O.892 2.138
Afterburners, Plant Cost Index, Nelson
Incinerators Fuel Cost Index
A1r-All Other Chemical Engineering O.943 1.541 O.939 1.533
Equipment Plant Cost Index. Nelson
Operating Cost Index
1 A General GNP Inflation Rate of 1.311 was used to convert GNP estimates from
1971 to 1975 dollars (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
* Deflation factors are for" 1973 to 1971 dollars and Inflation factors are for
1971 to 1975 dollars.
-------
Federal expenditures and non-defense Federal employment are
both incremented in the Reference Abatement Scenario to
account for Federally funded pollution control programs and
activities. These increments, which are added to the
corresponding values from the Reference Scenario, are
presented in Table B-4.
Table B-4.
Federal Expenditure and Employment Increments for the
Reference Abatement Scenario
1985
Federal Expenditure Increment
Non-Defense (Millions of 1975 Dollars} +2,564
Defense (Millions of 1975 Dollars) +384
Federal Employment increment
(Millions of People) +0.2
Unemployment rates were calibrated in the Reference Scenario
to near full-employment levels of 4.0 to 4.5 percent during
the 1980's. The addition of pollution control investment
capital, employment, and Federal expenditures tends to drive
unemployment below these levels. When this occurs, the per
capita disposable income is constrained in the Reference
Abatement Scenario to reflect a typical inflation dampening
fiscal policy. The scenario is then run again until
unemployment is equal to or greater than 4.0 percent.
The Reference Abatement Scenario assumes that all sources of
pollution will fully comply with the EPA and state
regulations and guidelines developed in response to the
Clean Air Act of 1970 and the 1972 Amendments to the Federal
Water Pollution Control Act. Detailed assumptions
concerning such compliance may be found in Section Two (Air)
and Section Three (Water) of this report.
LOW PRODUCTIVITY SCENARIOS
The Lov.' Productivity and Low productivity Abatement
Scenarios differ from their Reference Case counterparts in
that they make use of the productivity functions and growth
B-7
-------
assumptions •••contained in the INFORUM model as obtained from
the university of Maryland. Compared with the Reference
Scenarios; this reflects a slowing down of productivity
because of shifts toward service industries in the pattern
of ftnal demand/and because of a lessening of the rate of
productivity increase in other industries. GNP estimates
for the Low productivity Scenario which correspond to these
assumptions are shown in Table B-5 and are compared with
those for the Reference Scenario.
Table B-5.
Comparison of GNP Estimates for the
LOW Productivity and Reference Scenarios
(In Trillions of 1975 Dollars)
Low Productivity Reference Case
GNP <3NP
1975 1.53 1.47
1977 1.67 1.67
1980 1.84 2.01
1983 1.99 2.22
1985 2.09 2.36
ENERGY CONSERVATION SCENARIO
The two Energy conservation scenarios approximate energy
usage forecasts contained in the Federal Energy
Administration's- ."Buslness-as-Usual With Conservation"
scenario where the import price of oil is $11 per barrel.
(See Appendix Al, page 46 of the November 1974 Project
Independence Report.) The energy consumption estimates in
the Energy and Energy Abatement Scenarios each reflect a net
reduction of approximately 13 quadrillion Btu's compared
with their corresponding Reference Case scenarios. The
following types of changes were Introduced to achieve these
energy savings:
1. A reduction in the household consumption of fossil
fuels for air conditioning and heating to simulate
raising the thermostat setting in the summer and
lowering it in the winter.
2. A reduction in personal consumption expenditures for
gasoline to simulate increased carpooling (with an
B-8
-------
automobile occupancy ratio of 1.96 persons per vehicle
as compared to the Reference Case occupancy ratio of
1.56). increased shifts to mass transit are also
included for the Energy Case scenarios, such as the
modal split comparison between the Reference and Energy
Scenarios for 1985 shown below:
Intracity Reference Energy
Auto 0.9070 0.8690
Bus 0.0230 0.0610
Rapid 0.0350 0.0350
Rail 0.0350 0.0350
Intercity Reference Energy
Auto 0.8650 0.8250
Air 0.0950 0.0950
Bus 0.0300 0.0500
Rail 0.0100 0.0300
3. A reduction in the interindustry fossil fuel use
coefficients for energy-intensive inputs by
substitution of less energy-intensive industries.
These measures include: shifts to returnable beverage
containers, reductions in the use of artificial
fertilizers, reduced use of packaging materials, and
some recycling of energy-intensive materials.
4. Miscellaneous changes to reflect improved energy
housekeeping activities by various industries.
B-9
-------
Appendix C.
Impact of increased Federal
Grants for Municipal
Wastewater Treatment
A companion scenario to the Reference Abatement Scenario was
constructed which continued the Federal grant program for
municipal wastevater treatment plants through 1977-85. The
comparative Federal outlay data for this scenario and the
Reference Abatement Scenario is provided in Table 3-14 of
Section Three. This scenario is identified as the Municipal
Scenario {or Scenario 2A).
Table C-l provides a summary of relative macroeconomic
impacts of the Municipal Scenario as compared to the
Reference Abatement Scenario; the primary statistics show
only small differences between the two scenarios. The
additional funds injected into an economy operating at full-
supply-GNP require that the disposable income per capita be
reduced from 1980 to 1985 on the order of 0.34 percent,
which reduces personal consumption expenditures on the order
of 0.31 percent. The major large changes occur where
expected, in state and local health and welfare expenditures
growing by 12.00 percent in 1985 and stimulating public
construction by 10.54 percent in 1985. Net water residuals,
except for dissolved solids, decline by over 30 percent by
1980, with a continuing increase in the efficiency treatment
of suspended solids and nutrients over the decade. This
reflects the continuing upgrading of municipal wastewater
treatment plants.
C-l
-------
Table C-1,
Comparison of the Macro-Statistics of the Municipal
Scenario (SA) and the Reference Abatement Scenario (S2)
[(S2A~S2)/S2 1n %$
Statistic 1977 1980 1983 1985
Gross National Product O.O3 O.11 O.25 O.O9
Disposable Income Per Capita O.OO -0.51 -O.56 -0.34
<|> Federal Expenditures O.OO O.OO O.OO O.OO
(vj Personal Consumption Expenditures O.OO -O.36 -0.44 -0.31
Total Output O.O3 0.14 0.28 0.08
Investment O.02 0.11 O.25 -O.O3
State & Local Health & Welfare O.1O 3.19 9.43 12.OO
Public Construction O.G9 13.54 20.14 10.54
Net Water Residuals
Biochemical Oxygen Demand -30.63 -31.48 -32.72 -31.21
Suspended Sol ids -14.59 -22.59 -33.64 -42.99
Dissolved Solids O.02 0.01 0.15 0.15
Nutrients -14.98 -32.16 -51.1O -64.71
Water Municipal Costs
Annual1zed Costs
Capital 1.93 3O.31 94.49 124.19
O&M 1.50 31.96 95.71 125.45
Capital in Place 1.93 3O.31 94.49 124.19
Direct Employment 1.48 31.96 95.7O 125.47
-------
Appendix D,
Estimating the Cost For
industries to control
Pollution
COST ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY
Industrial facilities are required
pollution emissions if they are
Implementation Plan (SIP) or by
Performance Standards
are obliged by the
to control their air
so regulated by a State
Federal New Source
Under the SIP program/ states
{NSPS).
Clean Air Act to specify the emission
controls required by each industrial sector to achieve the
Federal ambient air quality standards throughout the state.
Thus, significant interregional differences in treatment may
exist due to existing ambient air quality at the time
regulations are implemented in each state. For new plants,
interregional treatment is more nearly identical because
Federal Air NSPS's apply to plants built or extensively
modified after the particular NSPS guideline for that
industry is promulgated. As of August 1975, NSPS's had been
published for 17 industries. The NSPS allowable emission
levels are usually more stringent than those for existing
sources; hence, quite often unit control costs for plants
regulated by NSPS are greater, than for plants regulated by
SIP's.
The deadline for meeting the Federal ambient air quality
standards was July 1, 1975. Industries have not yet made
the expenditures necessary to achieve their part of the
emissions reduction required to meet ambient standards.
Industries are continuing to install air pollution abating
equipment, however, and for the purposes of this report, it
was assumed that the required air abating investment needed
by 1978 will be made by the end of 1978, when the final
series of standards is to be met. It is also assumed that
BPT standards for water pollution control will be met in
1977, and that BAT standards compliance will be achieved in
19831
Seventy-two industrial sectors have significant control
costs for either or both air and water pollution control.
The number of sectors within each aggregate industry
classification is shown in Table D-l.
D-l
-------
Table D-l.
Distribution of Industrial Cost-Control Sectors
Aggregate industry
Agriculture
Mining
Food Processing
Textiles
Paper * Lumoer
Chemicals
Petroleum
Rubber
Ferrous Metals
Nonferrous Metals
Stone, Clay, Glass
Machinery & Equipment
Electric Utilities
Trade & Services
Miscellaneous
Total
Total
Industrial
Sectors
1
3
9
2
6
12
3
I
4
9
8
5
1
2
6
72
Air Water
Cost cost
Sedtors • Sectors
0
3
1
0
2
6
3
0
4
8
5
1
1
2
5
41
1
0
8
2
5
^6
1
1
2
7
5
4
1
0
1
44
But this listing does not provide a good appreciation for
the detail at which the abatement cost estimates are made.
For example, the steel-maXing industry, for purposes of air
pollution control, is a single item under Ferrous Metals in
the above table. However, 22 different industrial segments
are actually defined, each with its own cost curve for
capital expenditure and O&M as a function of plant size.
There are 497 industrial segments within the 72 industrial
cost-control sectors for which air or water control costs
are estimated.
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS:
MODEL PLANTS, UNIT COSTS AND GROWTH
In order to calculate pollution control costs, industries
are represented by "segments" and "model plants". A
"segment" is all or a portion of an industry that has:
(1) the same production process, (2) the same pollution
control technology, and (3) the same pollution control
D-2
-------
standards. For example, the Kraft Paper Industry is dealt
with for purposes of air pollution control costs in terms of
10 different segments. These segments are shown in
Table D-2. "Model plants" are the building blocks of a
segment; that is, a segment's capacity for production is
comprised of capacity within a number of model plant size
groupings that are classified as either "existing" or "new"
(new facilities are those constructed after the date when
the clean Air Act or Clean Water Act first affects that
industry). For example, Segment 7 for Kraft Paper (Smelting
TanKs) has three model plant sizes (454, 907, and 1,361
units of production per day). There are existing facilities
in all three size groupings, but, during the 1976-85 period,
new facilities are expected to be built in only the middle-
size class.
D-3
-------
Table D-2.
Kraft Paper Industry Segment Definitions
Process
1. Power
Boiler
2. Boiler
3. Recovery
Furnace
4. Recovery
Furnace
5. Recovery
Furnace
6. Recovery
Furnace
7. Smelting
Tank
8. Lime Kiln
9, Stock
Washer
10. Evaporator
Control
Technology
Electrostatic
Precipitators
Double Alkali
Scrubber
Electrostatic
Precipitators
Venturi Scrubber
Recovery Furnace
Replacement
Black Liquor
Oxidation
Orifice Scrubber
Venturi Scrubber
Incinerate in
Recovery Furnace
Incinerate in
Lime Kiln
Pollution
Standard
Federal
Particulates
Federal
Sulfur Dioxide
Washington/Oregon
Particulates
Washington/Oregon
Particulates
Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur
Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur
Washington/Oregon
Particulates
Washington/Oregon
Particulates
Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur
Washington/Oregon
Total Reduced Sulfur
The cost of controlling air pollution from industrial
sources is estimated for model plants. All existing
capacity is expressed in terms of the model plants, and all
new growth in capacity is also expressed in terms of these
model plants. For examplet existing plants which are
classified into the smallest model plant (size grouping) in
Segment 7 for Kraft Paper (454 units of production per day)
are assumed to spend, on the average, as much for capital
equipment to control each residual as the 454-unit model
plant.
D-4
-------
To calculate industrial costs of pollution control, each
segment has a capital cost equation and an O&M cost equation
that states dollar costs as a function of plant capacity or
water use, based on the model plants. The air cost
equations are derived from individual studies funded by EPA
{see Section Two) and the water costs are obtained from the
EPA Development Documents (see Section Three).
Each industrial segment is associated with one of the 185
industrial aggregate sectors of the INFORUM economic model
via a side equation. These sectors and corresponding
detailed subsectors of SEAS are shown in Tables 0-3 and D-4,
respectively. Due to this association, the growth of
capacity or water use (and the accompanying growth in
abatement costs) in each segment is dependent upon the
dynamics of the interindustry model. Thus, if a user
decreases the personal consumption purchases of automobiles/
then the direct and indirect effects of this reduction in
car sales will ripple throughout the system. The abatement
costs for steel industries, aluminum industries and other
industries indirectly impacted by the change in car sales
will be calculated. in the same manner, additional
purchases by a sector required for pollution control can be
imposed and the specific direct and indirect impacts
determined.
D-5
-------
Table D-3.
The 185 Sectors of INFORUM
JfC
1
4
t
10
It
14
1*
U
I*
II
34
IT
*0
41
44
41
JJ
Sf
SI
44
• 7
TO
n
Tl
ff
•1
•>
II
tl
94
9 j
100
101
1»»
IK
ill
111
III
111
11T
110
111
lit
141
141
141
IS1
IS4
UT
111
144
lit
111
ITS
IT!
Ul
114
TO* NANC1
DAIRY PAP* PRODUCTS
COTTON
FRUIT. VECCTAH.ES, OTH CHOPS
AC*, FOPtSTRV • FISH StRVICP
OTHCP WJH-* ERROUS ORES
STONE ANO CLAT •UNIM
MINTENANCt CONSTRUCTION
OTHER OIONANCC
CANNED ANO FROIfN POOOI
SUGAR
SOTT 01 INKS ANO FLAVORINGS
TMACCO PRODUCT:
• IIC IEITUES
HOUSfKHC TEXTILES
NIILHOPK ANO WOO PROCUCTS
OTHER FURNITURE
PAPER PRODUCTS* NEC
NfHSPAPEU
iNousTPtAi CHPIICALS
OTHFP PRINTING, PUtllSHINe
"JIC CHEMtAl HOOUCTJ
CILllllOilC PlinS
CLEANING AtO TOILET MOO.
Ftltl OIL
PUIIC* PRODUCTS
"OOTWAFtEXC. RUSMRt
StKUCTUIAL CLAY P*10UCTS
OTHPP STCKt • CUA.Y **COUCTS
LUO
OTM PRIM NO*-*** HEtALS
NON-*« CASTING AW «C«CINC
•PLUNIIHC AND HtATtNS EQUIP*
NETAL STAKMNGS
PIPES, VALVCS. PITTING!
PARN »ACHt»FRY
PAtHINC TOOLS, NETAL CUTTING
SPtCIAL IhluSTItAt lACHINfRT
PPHPP TR4N(N|S5ION EOUIPNfNT
OTHIA OFPICI HACMtNERV
CLPCTING
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
HHCKVUt Ts
FAINTS
PAVING ANO tSPHtlT
HISC PLASTIC PPOCHKTS
OTHd LCATHPR PROOUCT1
POTTBWT
STCCl
1TNC
OTH NCM-PER ROLL » 01 AH
KPTAL CANS
STnjCTUMl "CTAl PROOUCTS
CUTLEVY* HANO TOnLSt HAROHR
OTH F4MICATED 1FTAL PRWHKTT
cmsTP., niNmc, ctl MSLO «
MACHINE TOOLS, HETAL FCROINB
PU1PS, CTNPRISS9AS, ILOHERS
INDUSTRIAL PATIF'nS
SCRVIC1 |NOUST«f OACHtNEtY
TRANSrOKNERS Al>0 SHITCHCEAR
HEL01NG APP, CPAPHtTf PROO
RA9IO AMD TV RRCCIVING
ELECTRONIC CONPWCHTS
«-»AY, ElEC E>UIP>KEC
AIRCRAFT
SHIP AND «OAT HIUOINO
TIAILER COACHES
OPTICAL . OPHTHALMIC GOODS
HATCHES AID CLOCKS
OFMCt SUPPL1IS
IUSCS ANO LOCAL TRANSIT
At Al 1N1S
TclCPHON* ANO T*Lt9APH
R!TAIl TUOE
CHHER-OCCUPIEO DHELIINCS
PERSOKAL ANO (EPAtR SC'VICEl
AUTO REPAIR
PRtVATP SCHOOLS ANO NP<1
M) OEF'N
lUSINESS TRAVEUOUXNTI
CCNPUTm' KENTALS40UNNYI
1
4
t
11
IS
11
21
24
IT
10
)J
>4
}t
42
41
41
SI
54
ST
10
41
44
4t
Tl
T5
Tl
II
14
IT
to
9)
94
tt
101
IDS
101
til
114
11 T
UD
121
124
I2t
Ul
111
141
144
I4>
ISO
lil
IM
Ul
141
17
IT
IT
tl
11
MAT ANIMU. OTH LIVESTK
IOIACCO
NO OEP'H
COPPE* Ollf
CRUOC PfTROlEUH, NAT. 411
HFK CONSTRUCTION
ANNUNIT10N
DAIRY PRODUCTS
IA«fRV PROOUCTS
ALCOHOLIC LEVERAGES
DISC POOO PRODUCTS
FLOOR COVERING!
IFF ARIL
VENEPft ANO PLYHOOO
HOUSEHOLO PURNITURf
FAPC« ANO PAPERWARO HILLS
FAPC»OA*0 CONMINtRS
MOKS
CONNCtClAL PRINTING
FESTICIOCS • AORIC. CHIN.
iTNTHITIC RUISI*
DRUGS
FITROLEUN REPINING
TIRES ANO INNER TUIES
LEATHER ' 1NO LTHR PROO
GLASS
CENENT. CONCRETti GYPSUH
COFPW
ALUNINUH
•ON-rCMOUS HIRC ORAHIN*
•ETAl lARRHS ANO ORUNS
SCRCH KACH1NE PRODUCTS
KISC FAHICATEO HI*E PRODUCT
EWJtWS ANO TUR8INES
HATfRIALS HANDLING NACH
9THPR NFYAl WORKING NACHIN.ER
MIL ANO ROLLER SEARINGS
COF*UTE*I ANO RfLATtO NACHIN
KACHINE SHOP PA4DUCTS
"*OTORS ANO GENERATORS
HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES
PHONOGRAPH RECOOOS
(ATTVIES
TRUCK. IUS. TRAILER tOOIIS
AIRCPAPT ENGINES
•AllftOAO EWIFKENT
fNCR. • SCIENTIFIC INSTR.
MEDICAL ANO SURGICAL IMSTft.
JEHELXY AND SILVERHAM
NI3C HANUFACTURING. NEC
TRUCKING
PIPELINES
RADIO ANO TV IROAOCASTING
IAN«S. OtCIT ACEN., 1AOKEU
REAL ESTATE
AUSINCSS SERVICES
•OVIES AND ANUSCKENT
POST OFFICE
il ' IOC ELECTRIC UTILITIES
OFFICE SUPPLIES IOUNNYI
D-6
-------
Table D-4.
The Subsectors of SEAS
SVMttTO* «•«»
i tttr c»iai rrauiTt
> MUT
cou/iMMcTte cnn MCU
SUWKI
COM
COW-SB
MTV*M Ul Ml
901* "« cu »ociu
nmnutt net
«f 0 «f« •"TC-MOCIIIPM
C3»l«» SUUCfHCIUDUiM
H.V11 »IHiCOTT»« CHMSt
ICi C«f»« ( **0
t> >«
n I
tl >
II 11
«» t
H *
W »
it t
it 1 INOUIT COKtUST OP OH
M * inui.smcM t emit*
l» n crw wt HILL im
» 10 C«IC SUCM - CITSmU**
>» 1 I10UJT CCWMBt Of OIL
» t »O»'« »•••!£ >1» H IM irHitOr.TMII «f -COt TDK
If I WOV KOU*IK
M II RKIf r«B« P1**t94-mTMCftC$
f t iHtwjt co-wusi or on
M II
» I*
It IT
M 10
» »
» ft
»» M
» »
>» >»
>t i*
*^ Tl
»» I
n It
tl 1
tl *
tl T
i cam
I trnti
I WlCIMl 51»«C«
< IOHL S0111 «MTC CfWlW
PCHTM*rTl*tTOl
ttmint os I at
HMVUM! OXIDt
CMO»tne
naruMC KID
rtHiiu" otoirot
«err-K»»oe or
rOHWIlO€l UTi-drm nio<-iimpi
SUtfVtIC ACIA-SUL^IA
IIITWTt f«IH.IIf«
Hlflt 1u»t'rH03rxlTC
IMOUST CCHUSI 3> COM.
CMWI KiCK ,
MTWMH.OKIC
19 t
M 11
.
Of N DIWIIK i ivrarul
luoriu - "(" «n c»n«.i
iua**cr CMC mmw;
tuMAcr "("iic-.^sruLi
C3M. CLlMtO t OtliO
COM-10» «TU £11 *
CHUOt Oil OOWtllC K»OHUCT»
CTHtl KIT Cll r,"X(SV HMtS
••« KftT
routrm MOCCUIM '
1.0 "ociisiw
turn* •••'..
cMNfo < mom SOMOD
CCM
CITHUJ
moult r omuir t». H»T ou
CUM
CMC tucw - nautc
'
T0*« TA«!t OVMXC
mm r>H 'tMi»-»o-\ .
*OMssivf >n o«r noc KIUS
»in '>nic '
«T »
»T t
M >l
«7 >t
«T IT
M I
» 1
51 t
M t
»» u
31 19
99 It
99 II
99 »
99 IT
99 »
99 3t
99 *r
99 to
99 71
»» 10
jt 3J
•»i i
tl 9
tl t
I'lOUtT COI^USf OF (ItL
iutrirt - rvcr
»Ul» f»0« Mttll "»€•
u»r - uittittHfo '
^liSC - CtCSS RCCCVfVT
tip?* *o««o *ft05 ««ttf nr
WIIOI1C.M»U r
IWIHT COXUSt Of <1>T CU
«0]
It
IT
tt
t 91
I ,9t
I >l
19 I
19 t
It I
II I
I) JO
14 1
19 I
n t
tt t
tt t
tt 90
It I
19 1
>9 •
H la
n ii
it i
II JO
ti i
ti >
It
Tl
59 1
99 t
99 T
99 10
St II
9t It
9* »
9» II
n it
9> It
» II
99 19
91UOCI INCINIMTIOM
1MIMMIIOX 0> 101.10 Htlll
MMICINt. InCIMItAflOII
OTHCft OTfN OU«» t iAHOf til
UHOHMOVHO COM. «llil"l«
tOM-9TMH«IIC >0fl*
ClUk-KOT ClIVIKttM-MOT 00*
1HOUIT COKtUSt Of MT CM
ocmtsTic NIT Oil Mooucrion
istFtrat •
•to "i»r n
nlCH MOCItllXC
MTU>U> NOC«9iO CMEfU
c4*Mtotf^oeM rnuiTtveoSfNtc
TOMIOtt
moujT catsuit o> COAL
CO«H nKllNO
COM «t HIUIW
ItfT SUCM
i nous i cowusr Of COAL
*mtn on Mocictlteri «int
W»CN Mill FUliH-COTTOll.lYH
«»« iTtKKiTOri»tN OTt-oOX
ntct nfiHC.curit »IMTIM
KHtt FttK
tmtn Mooucrs
IHOVST CO->«UST or xa cu •
•IK - mr
PULf . OtHCM
MIC - SODIU*
OtHfK utTI »rt*
»>n - M itsrt
ihcust cn««un or colt
«CFt«lOI»10J
cirnic icia
•nine twronrot
CX.W •ITI-IIT»II' MOI-«UtIlf
SM.FURIC *
«nj>,ii«f:
iwtar ccmusi o> OIL
M.UNINUH- «Jtf*ri .
xnMQCm r(tolW*0!«m>A<:il CILL
19 J* inDIU* U«»01»IS-SOtV»» MOC
>9 tl SULUt CITK-I1TM OIOI-I11IN
11 1 PHOSPHATE FI*Tlll»»
HAHtl
tl
41
.
INOU&T COMBUST 0* NAT 6AS
CALCIUM CH.O>IOi
D-7
-------
Table D-4. (Continued)
The Subsectors of SEAS
41 tO FOT4SSIUM SULFA7I
41 11, SOB1U1* HCTU.
41 14 8TMYiE«/«nFYUM
*l It Kiln. ATSI
41 24 iEMtENe
41 30 •TX-HTM9 TFEAT, PYXOLTCIS
42 2 FHtNdlC RESINS
4t 5 u>» DENSITY FCLTETWLfm
41 1 SYNTHETIC RU8BE*
49 2 INOUST CPHBUST Or Oil
4T t SOAFS *HQ OMERCENTS
48 JO HI 0 S3UI8LC HI1T TAAOI WU
4t » SOLVENT 8AS« FAINT INOUSTRIL
4* > INDUS? ciHeusT IF HAT us
44 4 CASCLIHf FROOUCT ION
» 12 1WIHC PLANTS
*« 19 FEnccHfiiCRACRiiic.No LUSSSI
71 t MWALt
71 2 LATEX MANUFACTURE
Tt 11 arm.' TAKNING
7» 34 HASR ReNOvtD/cmqra TAILING
79 37 SWE HAIR/VEGETABLE
71 i MESSED < M.OUN eu»
7i 11 nwT GLASS
T» it <-n«=t snucTWAL CI»Y MLHS
it i mousr ecKKitr o« HIT us
«l to CEHENT - wr mminc
82 t CIUSHE0 JTOIt
» 2 IIIOUST CCKBU3T or alt
41 3 S»e»l PWDUCTlO«l
41 • STEM FOUNDRIES
Cl 11 8*11C OTY FURN-ISTEfiR. F*CIL
• 1 14 HFC7 4*C-f«X ^CUNDKY **QO
» JI OTHfl' ftWattlCT. "UMttCeS
u 40 sisrr rxv;H luftrctc-to C^O^H
82 41 H6CT A«C PtttNilC^-m C«0«rH
4S.44 IK(r< •(MNDMr - CUPOLA
u 4* Fen-OAuar "oo.-icf uiBsn
VFH
i» » co'PEn SKeirmc
•« » m
19 1 LUO
•4 t HIC
«> i Mtntm ftrtHion
•i 31 stcanjutT «.u>tNu*
«T JA MIBturo HKlOt
«• i »E^rLt. itm
ii 4 MKavtese
i» 2 mouir COHIUST OF OIL
140 1 tlKTtlCITV » COM.
140 « rtKTIIC17T 11 VUCUU fUfl
UQ si ctect ev HIGH sutruft coiv
140 J* UECT FT HTM
140 17 CUC7 tr HtTWM. CM
142 i scuAce stu&^r inciHFFATiox
142 >t OFVi aUMIIINC
142 14 DH-S!7i IHCtNEU710K
142 17 KO OEFiN
14S 10 C»AI« ^»10-5H4tL RURAL FAClt
17» 31 Mt Ct.EAH-PFTIt1t.EUP SQtvEnTS
17» 1 IM9US7 fM«US7-l«7 CAS N.C.C
ir« 4 coiwenc'iHSTirur VSE-HAT CAJ
17« •> OTHIF KOUSnitl. USE
41 It .SOPIUH CHUVI10C
41 1* SODtun SllICATC
41 17 HI AM1AUC1
4i 20 AHWtIA
41 21 irtm.tlil!
4t 11 ITI-SOI* turii F*OK utranun
42 3 NTIOH
42 4 HIOH OtNSITT FOtYtTHTU'C
44 1 *AT(n
49 9 INDUS! COKtUST OF Mt CIS
W I S4U KADf FAtHTS
41 It SOLVENT SiSI FAINT TKAOtULC
4* t 110UST COMUST OF COAL
H 4 »UM OIL nfFimne
4« )l IfFIHEIttES U/««C«]HO
49 34 LUBC OltfCftACKtNO FE7JU]CK«KI
72 1 I!«ES »M> IK1O TU9CS
79 1 LEinten TANM1WG
79 32 FULF HA(M/CM40Mt TAHNIHC
79 39 FUtF. SAVC H*tA.CM»OHf *NO TAN
71 t >!BE»GLASS < INSULATKni
78 4 CLASS CONTAINERS
7* 1 ST4UC7UIAL CtAT F^OOUCTS
11 1 1HOUST COHftUST OF COAt.
It 4 CtlOIT
it 11 c(ni!XT - our OINOIW
U ' SAW) ANO MAVEl
» J INOUST coHigsr OF NAT CAS
81 4 FCMtALLOY FDCOUCT1DN
11 * KTAl/COIL SUMAC- C3AT1HO
81 32 ELFCT AIC lrrfL-UTE«. 'AC.
81 39 07MSK UON FOUNOKr FU««1CES
U 38 f.SMtt CaKtNC
13 tl 9ASIC OXTCN FU»NAC-C«1«TH
11 4« il*CT AIC (UHW.CE-CIOWTH
•3 47 IftON FCUNO^V - CLECT iHC
83 70 FERROALLOY FROO* • CSF
41 82 FriLft2!m
84 90 FMKAAY COPFEK
84 91 HYDRONETALlUaCr
84 ri SEC 8F.ASS t »«Wf-SS«ITH
89 10 »I»A«Y LFAD
84 30 F«IXA»Y I1NC
87 2 ALUItNLM
17 >2 HAIL-KFIOLH.T FFIICCSS
87 19 NO«U01TAL JOMHBB1O
•« 2 HSUCUAV
21 1 HOHC AFFLIAHCES-SUtFACr COAT
» 1 tNOUST CONBUS7 OF KA7 CAS
40 2 ELfCT«IC!TY »Y OIL
40 5 fLfCTMClTY »Y NY0*.0 t OTHfK
40 32 UFC1-OUmL»T.'fSIDUAl OIL
40 33 EL^CT BY LM^
40 38 £LECT BY CFOTHEHMAl,HrO«0
42 2 TOTAL SOI 10 MASTS C€K£!UftON
42 32 OF£*< OUMFINC C LANDFILL
42 39 LANDFILL - FROM Alft CONTROLS
42 38 NO OJF'N
t> 31 C1A1K HAHD-rtRXIHAL FUtl
70 t ORY CLEANING
Tl t WttUST COmuST Of COAV. H.I.I
79 4 RESIDENTIAL USE-HAT CAS
7» 7 CQIfCRC/INSTlTUT US^-31t
71 30 COWtfRC/IHSTITUT USC**ES Oil
41 12 S001IW ftICmiMAT«
M 19 300IUN SULFATE
41 11 ISOFHROFAMOt
41 21 WTHANX
41 24 FRaFYLCXI
42 1 FOLYXKW CHLMIOS
42 FOLTSTYROf
42 FOtVFWFYLENt
49 INOUST CON8UST OP COAL
49 FOLYESTER FKCRS
41 IKOUSIItlM. FAt«T9>N.(.C.
»8 3 H2C SOLUILE FAINT tHOUSTR tAl
44 [MUST CONBUST Of OIL
41 JET FUCl FROOUCYIOft
41 3 CRACK IKCIHO FETRO OR LU8CSI
M I INTE,CRAriCllACKtLU«EiFETROCHI
73 RUaWk RECLAIHIHC
79 1 CHROME rANXINC
T9 3 SAVE H4t«/CK«OKe TAW1HC
79 14 HAitt REHOYC&/TANN90
71 FLAT CLASS
78 3 FLAT! CLASS
19 i FCRIOOIC MLN U/FLASHINQ
81 1HDUS7 CON4UST OF OTL
11 LIKI
1 AUES70S FROOUCrS
« IHOUST CON8UST OF COAL
8 IRON FOUNDRY FROOUCTIOH
I COAL INTO COHINC
1 3 OFEM HEARTH FURt-IMTtC. MC.
1 3 CUFOLA FURNACE
•1 3 SUBNEHCEB ARC FIMNACt
U 3 tYFHOOXT COX IKS
•J 4 HO OEf 'U
• 14 NO DEF1^
81 48 FERROALLOY FROO.-FAB. F1LTJR
81 80 FINISHIW QFOArtOXS
81 81 SINTERING
84 11 SeCONOAH COFFER
84 34 SHELTIHG H/ROASKK
84.72 SEC BRASS < BRON2£-KO GRQUTH
83 11 SECONOAM LEAS
84 It SECOKOART tlHC
87 10 FR1HARY ALUNINUN
87 33 ALCOA FROCESS
87 14 VERTICAL iOM«6e»S
44 1 UAANIUN
111 1 INOUST COHBUST OF COAL
131 4 FOTOR VEH.FA%TS-SURFAC& COAT
140 3 EXFCTRKITY 9Y CAS
40 30 ELECT BY LOU SUL'UR COAL
40 11 ELECT BY HIGH SULFUR RGS OIL
40 34 ELECT BY CASIMEO COAL
40 31 ELECT BY HUNICIPAL KASTC
7 30 INCINERATION OF SOLID HASTE
Z 33 MUNtCtFM. INCINCfUTlOH
i 34 OTHER OPEN OUfF & LANDFILL
$ I CRAIN HANOL1NG
332 C»AIK HATO-TEM »CILIIHLAN9
9 30 PRY CLEAN-SYNTHETIC SOLVENTS
1 2 1NDUST CW5UST OF OK N.E.C.
174 9 RESIDENT USE-OIST1LLATE OIL
174 k ' COMNERC/USTtTur USE-COAL
17* 11 COHReR/t*STITUT USE-OUT OIL
D-8
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
{Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
REPORT NO
EPA 600/5-79-010
3, RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO,
TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Resources and Pollution Control:
Demonstration of a Comprehensive Assessment
5. REPORT DATE
September 1979
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
AUTHOR(S)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
Office of Environmental Processes & Effects Res.
Washington, B.C. 20460
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
(RD-682) 68-01-2816; 68-01-2825;
68-01-2826; 68-01-2828
2. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Research and Development
Office of Environmental Processes & Effects Res. RD-682
Washington, D.C. 20460
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA 600/16
5. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
6. ABSTRACT
The purpose of this project was to develop and demonstrate a methodology for
simultaneously projecting future pollution control costs for all economic activi-
ties subject to Federal regulations, which utilized consistent assumptions
relating to official Federal projections of the state of the Nation's economy.
To assure valid simulation of the impacts of the regulations, the projection model
was developed with a scale of sectoral detail that allowed analysis of each industry-
specific effluent or emission regulation in effect at the time (nearly 400 sectors).
Further, the secondary effects of pollution control expenditures on the economy
were simulated. This report demonstrates the utility of the methodology for the
intended analyses.
7,
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/Group
Costs, Water Pollution Control,
Cost Comparisons, Economics,
05/E
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Unlimited
19, SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) PREVIOUS eoiTION is OBSOLETE
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17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
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EPA Form 2220-1 (Rov. 4-77) (Reverse)
allS. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1979 306-319/«663 1-3
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------- |