&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Health and Ecological
Effects
Washington DC 20460
EPA-600-5-78-011
June 1978
Research and Development
Development of an
Economics-Based
Methodology for
Projecting Future
Pollution
Problems
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RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development U.S Environmental
Protection Agency, have been grouped into nine series These nine broad cate-
gories were established to facilitate further development and application of en-
vironmental technology- Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously
planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields.
The nine series are-
1. Environmental Health Effects Research
2. Environmental Protection Technology
3. Ecological Research
4. Environmental Monitoring
5. Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
6 Scientific and Technical Assessment Reports (STAR)
7 Interagency Energy-Environment Research and Development
8.. "Special" Reports
9. Miscellaneous Reports
This report has been assigned to the SOCIOECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL
STUDIES series. This series includes research on environmental management,
economic analysis, ecological impacts, comprehensive planning and fore-
casting, and analysis methodologies. Included are tools for determining varying
impacts of alternative policies: analyses of environmental planning techniques
at the regional, state, and local levels; and approaches to measuring environ-
mental quality perceptions, as well as analysis of ecological and economic im-
pacts of environmental protection measures Such topics as urban form, industrial
mix, growth policies, control, and organizational structure are discussed in terms
of optimal environmental performance. These interdisciplinary studies and sys-
tems analyses are presented in forms varying from quantitative relational analyses
to management and policy-oriented reports.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
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EPA-600/5-78-011
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ECONOMICS-BASED
METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING FUTURE
POLLUTION PROBLEMS
by
Gary S. Stacey and James E. Flinn
Contributors: Kathy S. Smoler,
Garson A. Lutz, and John L. Moore
Contract No. 68-01-1837
(Program Element 1HA095)
Project Officers
Harold Kibby and James R. Hibbs
Prepared for
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Washington, D.C. 20460
EPA- RTF LIBRARY
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Health and Ecological
Effects, and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the
contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environmental
Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products
constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. This report is available
for purchase from the National Technical Information Service, P. 0. Box 1553,
Springfield, Virginia 22161. The order number is PB258684.
11
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ABSTRACT
The research in this project was devoted to developing a
methodology having utility for an ultimate purpose of identifying poten-
tial future toxic substance pollution problems. An approach was desired
that would be systematic, comprehensive, and futuristic. The methodology
that has resulted is an economics-based one that initiates the identifi-
cation of problems by focusing on the potential for their occurrence in
the production, exchange, and consumption of goods and services.
The methodology was developed and tested by exercising the
various components. The steps in the approach are to rank products
(exchanged in the marketplace) according to the potential they have for
being associated with future pollution problems. For the high ranked
products, additional information on the chemical constituents of the
product are identified. The final step is to analyze the chemical con-
stituents to determine which chemicals occur frequently and in large
quantities. At the same time the potential that each of the chemicals
has for resulting in toxic substance problems would be assessed.
In ranking the products, parameters on historical growth, future
growth, dispersion, technical change, and value of shipments were developed
and used. A specific group of products was examined to determine their
chemical content. The results of this effort showed that identifying
chemical constituents of products require considerable resources. The
final step of analyzing chemicals to determine frequency and quantity was
developed conceptually but due to resource limitations could not be applied.
The application of the methodology to a limited sector of economic
activity, e.g., Chemicals and Allied Products, resulted in the identifi-
cation of products that ranked high as potential sources of future toxic
substance pollution problems.
iii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section
I CONCLUSIONS. .... 1
II RECOMMENDATIONS. ... 2
III INTRODUCTION 5
IV METHODOLOGY REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT 11
V CRITERIA PRODUCT RANKING 37
VI PRODUCT RANKING 67
VII APPENDICES
A. Previews 85 A-1
B. Value of Shipments ....... B-l
C. Future Growth of Product ......... C-l
D. An Alternative Dispersion Index. ........... D-l
E. Structural Change Indices. E-l
F. Composite Product Ranking . F-l
G. Product Codes and Names. G-l
TV
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SECTION I
CONCLUSIONS
The approach for projecting potential future toxic substance
pollution problems that is developed in this research is designed to be
comprehensive, systematic, and futuristic. In this regard it differs
from other approaches for identifying future pollution problems that are
presently used (or are being developed) by others. The major findings
of the effort are:
A computerized, economics-based methodology is feasible
and has been developed. It can be used to screen and
rank products as to future pollution potential.
Computerization of the steps in the methodology is
necessary because of the large amounts of data that
must be processed.
Comprehensiveness of the methodology is obtained by
utilizing the Standard Industrial Classification code,
which catalogs all economic exchanges, as the basis for
examining economic activity.
Data sources with futuristic content such as input-
output can be used to develop indices for ranking
products.
Results of the analysis of chemical constituents of
products show that this type of analysis is very resource
intensive. Because of this, it is probably advantageous
to perform this step only after products have been
screened and ranked on the basis of economics-based
criteria.
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SECTION II
RECOMMENDATIONS
Because the research in this project was exploratory, one of
the objectives was to identify directions that could be taken to improve
and implement more fully the approach developed. In general, the results
indicate that the approach shows promise for producing useable results.
As a result, the major recommendation of the authors is that development
and application of the methodology be continued. More specific recommenda-
tions include:
The parameters that are used in the ranking should be
further studied to determine whether they are optimum
or should be replaced by more powerful parameters, e.g.,
some of the selected parameters may be redundant. Assess-
ment of the sensitivity of the results to various parameters
would provide evidence for this analysis and an improved
set of parameters could be established.
Additional effort is warranted toward improving the weighting
procedures because the weighting of the parameters that is used
to rank products is critical to determining the rank of products.
The weighting process was experimental and the judgment re-
flected by the weights is limited to staff members who were in-
volved in the project. The base of experts whose judgments is
incorporated should be expanded by including persons representing
a wider variety of interests in toxic substances. This would
include persons from both industry and government. In addition,
the weighting procedure could be improved by performing statisti-
cal analyses of the incidence of pollution problems from products,
In this context, products would be ranked by criteria reflecting
known pollution problems emanating from the production, exchange,
or consumption of the product. Then, the statistical relation-
ship of the rank to various characteristics of the product such
as historical growth rate, dispersion, technical change, and
quantity (or value of shipments) could be established.
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The findings of this effort would be used to establish
specific statistical coefficients for the ranking
parameters.
Analysis of the chemical constituents of products should
continue for the products that ranked high according to
the economic parameters.
The procedures for analyzing the incidence of chemicals
in high ranked products should be developed to the point
that they can be computerized. Computerization will
facilitate handling the large number of chemical con-
stituents that are likely to be identified for the
subject products.
The indices that are developed for each of the parameters
and are used to rauk the products could be improved bv
testing the ranking obtained with a subject index with
a ranking that is obtained using an alternative formula-
tion. As consistency among various alternative forms is
achieved, confidence in the subject indices for various
parameters will be improved.
The procedure for normalizing the data used in the indices
is very simplified at the present time. This procedure
could be improved to make the ranking achieved for various
parameters be more consistent with other parameter rankings.
This can be done by developing an algorithm to insure that
the means and medians of rankings coincide and that the
distribution about the mean is relatively consistent. In
particular, distributions that are highly skewed due to
unusual nonnormalized data should be adjusted for.
The output format of the computer program could be improved
to include more information on the mean and distribution
of the individual rankings. This would facilitate the
analysis of the results of the product ranking.
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The entire procedure for identifying materials or products
of concern, viz-a-viz, future pollution problems, should
be applied to another pollutant category (air, water,
solid waste, etc.) to test applicability to other problem
areas.
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SECTION III
INTRODUCTION
In its role as a regulatory agency, the Environmental Protection
Agency must anticipate, for the purpose of exerting control, pollutants
that might cause adverse effects on human health or the environment. Con-
sequently, EPA must be concerned as to where new pollution problems are
likely to arise. Similar concern by other Federal agencies is clearly
evident. Preparations to face such future problems and efforts to obtain
advance warning regarding where these problems are likely to arise, although
difficult, are being addressed in various ways. Approaches that are now
being applied range from those that are highly intuitive to those that
systematically examine numerous avenues from whence problems may arise.
While the intuitive approach is very powerful, it suffers from a lack of
comprehensiveness that a highly systematic review would produce. Highly
systematic approaches cover virtually all candidate pollution-causing
stressors but are generally limited to dealing with those that are known
(or judged) to be potential future pollution problems.
The approach for identifying future pollution problems that is
developed in this program is intended to fill the gaps that are left by
the application of the existing or known methods. This study attempts
to develop an approach, hitherto untried, for guiding efforts aimed at
identifying future pollution problems. Because toxic substances are of
immediate concern as a category of such problems, the approach will be
developed with this area of application in mind. The approach is based on
identifying future material categories of concern at the source as they are
produced, exchanged, or consumed in the economy. Data on the economic
characteristics of particular material categories (products) are collected
and organized with the aim of determining those categories that should
receive priority in any intensive search for future toxic substances (or other
pollution problems) requiring regulation. The approach is designed to be
futuristic, systematic, and comprehensive.
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Futuristic
In developing the methodology it is necessary to first define what
is meant by future problems. Figure 1 indicates the conceptual relationship
between future pollution problems and problems known today. The circle
indicated by P-iQ7c represents all pollution problems (known and unknown)
today. The circle P'<-75 represents the known pollution problems of today.
The remaining area in P , namely A, D, represents unknown present pollu-
tion problems. The circle P-JQOC represents all pollution problems of a
future date, 1985. The area A represents unknown pollution problems of
today that will not be problems in 1985. This may be due to obsolescence
of technology and/or changes in life style. Area B represents pollution
problems that we know about now but which will disappear by 1985 due to
our attempts to deal with them or because of changes in our activities,
perhaps quite by accident. Nevertheless, these are problems today but
they will not be problems in 1985. Area C represents those pollution
problems that are known today but which will have eluded our attempts to
deal with them and will remain problems in the future. Area D represents
problems that exist today but which we have not been able to detect or
identify. In 1985 these will still be "fair game" as pollution problems
that must be dealt with. Area E represents future pollution problems that
will arise between now and 1985. These problems will arise for all the
reasons that the set P1ri-,c will change to the set P, noc over time. In
ly/j lytsj
particular, changes in life style, changes in technology, changes in values,
and changes in the demand for various types of goods and services are
examples of the forces that will lead to the redefinition of the set of
pollution problems.
From this diagram, it is possible to indicate which problems
the methodology is meant to deal with. Clearly area C represents future
pollution problems but our concern is not to identify those that will
continue to be dealt with. Area D represents Existing pollution problems
that will carry over into the future time period. These problems stem
from existing behavior and technology, and although they represent problems
that are yet to be dealt with, the methodology developed in this study
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1975
1985
FIGURE 1. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRESENT AND
FUTURE POLLUTION PROBLEMS
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is not designed to identify these problems. Area E represents the type of
future pollution problems that this study will be concerned with identifying.
These are the problems that do not exist today as problems. The approach
that is developed is an attempt to identify future problems that do not
exist today because the technology and behavior that will generate these
problems is not in existence today. However, the world of future pollution
problems cannot be divided as readily as the diagram might indicate. As
a result, it is quite probable that the approach that is developed will
provide some indication of future problems in all three of the categories
in
_Systematic
A systematic approach is defined as one in which another person
or researcher can trace the steps and arrive at the same conclusion as the
first person to apply the approachthe systematic approach implies repli-
cability. Many approaches develop lists based on the judgment of individuals
and groups of knowledgeable persons. If in a subsequent time period another
(or even the same) group were to be called together, the resultant list of
potential problems would probably differ from the first. Such an approach,
while potentially very powerful, is not systematic.
The advantage of a systematic approach is not that it is a more
powerful approach or that it would identify problems more readily than a
less systematic approach, but instead that over time the approach can be
refined and the data inputs can be improved, resulting in an updated set
of potential problem areas that can be compared with the original set. Once
the general concept is established, effort may be devoted to additional
refinements in the details of the methodology. The advantage of being able
to improve on the data is that as new information becomes available, it
can be utilized to improve the quality of the results. Another advantage
of the systematic approach is that it is possible to test the results for
sensitivity to the input data. In so doing, the important data elements
can be identified, and resources can be devoted to improving the quality of
these data thereby improving the overall credibility of the results.
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As a final advantage, the systematic approach permits others
who examine the approach to find fault with it so that constructive
criticism can be applied to improve the predictive power of the method.
In a less systematic approach, based on individual judgment, it is not
easy to identify the weak points in the approach because the selection
process may be performed on an ad hoc basis by the participants using*
intuition and judgment.
Comprehensive
In developing an approach it is important to ensure that, because
of the characteristics of the data base, most, if not all, avenues for the
identification of future problems have been explored. In a historical
context this is less difficult than in a futuristic context. For the his-
torical approach one must examine and review all known possibilities for
their potential for problems. In the futuristic approach, comprehensive-
ness is more difficult to achieve because it is very difficult to know
what new or different, or presently unknown products will emerge to cause
problems with their polluting characteristics. Because of the impossi-
bility of knowing the future, the comprehensive approach should be based
on examining a complete set of activities that contains all the potential
for the future problems. This does not guarantee identifying future problems
but it does insure that most, if not all, important indicators of future
problems are considered.
The economic activity of the nation is viewed as containing all
the necessary ingredients for identifying areas for future problems.
Problems arise out of human activity and not out of natural environmental
processes and change. The rate of change of economic activity by sector of
the economy is related to the technological change and the changes in tastes
and demands of the purchasers. Especially over the short run, economic
activity and the changes in that activity provide the framework within
which pollution problems, and more specifically future toxic substance
problems are likely to arise.
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There is great intuitive appeal from historical developments
that indicates that pollution problems come about because of technological
changes and the changes in consumptive habits of the population. For
example, the deterioration of Lake Erie was attributed to chemical ingre-
dients in soaps and from the use of agricultural chemicals. Air quality
problems arise in major cities because of the proliferation of the
automobile technology and the changing tastes of individuals for use of
the automobile. Similarly, our demand for electrical power has resulted
in further air quality problems. Also, as the change is made to nuclear
fueled power plants, pollution from nuclear wastes is developing as a
potential problem. In this case, the historical change in consumer tastes
for electrically powered products, the technical changes permitting larger
power plants for fossil fuels, and more widespread development of nuclear
powered plants suggest that prediction of changes in consumptive habits
and technological change would provide indicators of potential future
pollution problems.
To be comprehensive in this context, the work on this project was
conducted in the framework of all economic activity of man. By reviewing
past economic activity, historical trends and likely future directions,
products that might produce future pollution problems have been identified.
10
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SECTION IV
METHODOLOGY REVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT
There are a large number of approaches that are currently being
applied to identify pollution problems. Some of these approaches are
futuristic and others depend very heavily on current statistics and
information. The next section reviews some of the approaches that have
been identified as being applied by agencies in the Federal government.
Following the discussion of current approaches, the economics-based
approach that was adopted is presented. In developing the economics-based
approach for identifying future pollution problems, emphasis was placed
on the identification of future toxic substance pollution problems. How-
ever, the approach developed is amenable to application to other types
or categories of pollutants as might be required by different agencies
of the government.
Current Approaches
A recent study by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories for EPA's
Office of Toxic Substances (OTS) sought to identify and evaluate existing
systems for identifying and selecting candidate chemicals or classes of
chemicals with respect to their health and environmental hazards.
From this study it was concluded that:
Whereas numerous systems exist which have as their
objective the identification of toxic chemical
substances, nearly all have been formulated within a
relatively narrow framework of applicability by the
user agency.
Given a candidate list of substances of concern, three
basic approaches were identified for performing the
toxic or hazard assessment function necessary for ranking
a prioritization of the candidates. These include the
use of (1) expert opinion, (2) a numerical index or
n
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measure of hazard, and (3) subjective weighting factors
for selected parameters felt to be of importance.
Existing systems can be classified with respect to
whether their principal function is to identify
chemical substances before general exposure of the
public or environment, or after such exposure occurs.
None of the systems identified exhibited the systematic
and comprehensive attributes deemed desirable from the
viewpoint of a public regulatory agency such as OTS.
A few existing systems that have identification of toxic sub-
stances of concern as their objective are reviewed to illustrate the
uniqueness of the efforts under study in this current program. Example
systems can be discussed in the context of their particular sphere of
development and usage, namely: occupational health, general/environmental
health, and environmental management. Additional details on these examples
are obtainable from the referenced OTS study report.
Occupational Health
Toxic Substance List. The best known and most widely distributed
list of pure toxic substances is HEW's annual catalogue. The most recent
catalogue (1974) identifies 13,000 names of chemicals together with 29,000
synonymous names. Eventually it is estimated that this list will include
100,000 substances, this number representing the current estimate of the
number of unique substances for which toxic effect information may be
available. A chemical appearing in this catalogue has a documented, poten-
tial hazard to man and/or animals.
Criteria for inclusion of a substance included information on
chemicals whose effects for man and animal were lethal, carcinogenic,
teratogenic, or mutagenic, or whose effects on humans were less than
lethal. The principal sources of information on individual entries are
published literature, technical data from cooperating industries, and the
American Chemical Society. Prioritization of substances is not performed.
A typical entry with explanatory notes is presented in Figure 2. Although
12
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3700. BERYLLIUM
CAS: '7440417
h'LN: .BE
MW: 9.01
MOLFM: Be
SYN: GLUCINIUM
TXDS: ihl-hmn TCLo 0.1 mg/M TFX:PUL
U.S. OCCUPATIONAL STANDARD USOS-air
CRIT DOC: OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE TO BERYLLIUM
AMIHBC 4,123,51
FEREAC 37,22139,72
NTIS** PB 210-806
CO
A. Sequence number in this listing.
1. Prime name of compound.
2. Chemical Abstracts Registry Number, which is a number assigned to this compound so that it may be
uniquely identified.
3. Molecular Weight of this compound.
4. Molecular Formula or Elemental Formula of this compound.
5. Wiswesser Line Notation, which is a formula defining the structure of this compound.
6. Synonyms, common names, trade names, and other chemical names.
7. Toxic dose line, which defines the route of administration or entry of this substance, the species
involved, the type of dose reported, the dose which caused the toxic response} and the type of
toxic response noted from the dose administered.
8. This is the reference to the original article or source from which the toxic data were derived.
9. U.S. Occupational Standard exists for this substance in the regulations of OSHA, U.S. Department
of Labor. The standard may be found in the Federal Register referenced here.
10. A Criteria Document supporting a recommended standard has been published by NIOSH, U.S. Department
of Health, Education and Welfare.
FIGURE 2. AN EXAMPLE OF A TYPICAL ENTRY IN THE TOXIC SUBSTANCES LIST, 1974
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this list is prepared by HEW's National Institute of Occupational Safety
and Health (NIOSH), its use by the general public will extend well beyond
the occupational field.
Threshold Limit Values List. The American Conference of Govern-
mental Hygienists (ACGIH) publishes a list of 500-600 substances for which
airborne exposure levels or threshold limit values (TLV) are given. The
information is intended primarily for use by industry for protecting in-
plant worker exposure. Approximately 1,500 industrial hygienists serve as
the source of candidate substances. Candidate substances identified by
hygienists in their field work are submitted to a 15-member TLV Committee
that evaluates available data on the substances and recommends both their
inclusion on the list and exposure limits.
Priority List for Criteria Development. NIOSH has published
"criteria documents" on a number of chemical substances and physical
agents (like noise or vibration) that represent work-place hazards. Candi-
date substances for criteria document development are identified from a
variety of sources and selected on the basis of a formalized prioritization
scheme. Sources of candidate substances include past or ongoing work-place
surveys and/or hazard evaluation programs conducted by NIOSH. The 1973-4
list, prepared and prioritized by NIOSH, included 471 substances. The
prioritization scheme is a numerical one. The rating index is derived
as the product of an "exposure estimate" and a "severity rating" for each
substance. Number of workers exposed, production rates, and usage trends
are considered in the "exposure estimate", whereas the severity rating is
subjectively formulated using a Delphi technique with some 50 occupational
health professionals. The first 10 ranked substances on the prioritized
list, along with their individual numerical severity and exposure ratings
are given in Table 1.
14
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TABLE 1. TOP TEN SUBSTANCES
PRIORITIZED BY NIOSH
Priority
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Substance or Agent
Benzene
Arsenic
Silica
Para th ion
(Ethyl Parathion)
Fluorides
Acetone
Acetylene
Methyl Parathion
Chromium
Nitric Oxide
Exposure
Estimate
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,200,000
250,000
350,000
1,700,000
1,500,000
150,000
160,000
350,000
Severity
Rating
3,000
2,000
1,250
4,300
3,000
400
425
3,000
2,750
1,250
Overall
Rating
(in 100 's)
60,000,000
30,000,000
'15,000,000
10,750,000
10,500,000
6,800,000
6,375,000
4,500,000
4,400,000
4,375,000
Source: Communication with NIOSH (October, 1974).
15
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General Environmental Health
In its efforts to gain headway against cancer, one of the
leading causes of death in the U.S., the National Cancer Institute (NCI)
has developed, spawned, or supported a number of systematized approaches
for identifying and assessing chemical substances exhibiting carcino-
genicity. One of these programs, expecially pertinent to this study, is
abstracted to present the mechanisms utilized to identify and rank the
candidate materials of concern.
Program on Carcinogenic Chemicals. In this NCI program,
Stanford Research Institute (SRI) has devised a system to collect,
analyze, systematize, and store information on carcinogenic chemicals.
This information includes data on the description, production level,
distribution, and the potential level of exposure that the public may
(21)
experience.
The process of chemical selection is as follows. First, SRI
identifies chemicals within the following nine exposure categories:
(1) intentional food additives, (2) pesticide residues in foods, (3) pre-
scription drugs, (4) proprietary drugs, (5) cosmetics, (6) air pollutants,
(7) water pollutants, (8) soaps and detergents, and (9) trade sales paints.
After the chemicals are identified, the products containing these chemicals
are identified. Then, the means of man's exposure is established as
either oral, dermal, respiratory, or parenteral. An exposure factor,
based upon the quantity available in commercial use and the exposure route,
is calculated for each chemical. This information is then presented to
NCI's Chemical Selection Committee, which selects candidates for bioassay
studies.
Early in the program SRI identified 90 exposure categories
believed to contain 30-50,000 chemicals. These 90 categories were sub-
sequently reduced to the nine categories (noted above) containing perhaps
3,200 chemicals. For the nine categories 900 product types have been
identified representing 18,000 chemical product combinations. The data
available on these products are computerized and contain the following
information.
16
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Product - Name, quantity available for exposure, exposure
routes, exposure factor by route.
Each Ingredient Chemical - Chemical Abstract Number,
percent in product, degree of uncertainty associated with
quantitative data, and reference to data sources.
SRI has examined the feasibility of ranking candidate chemicals
with respect to the product of "exposure" and "activity (carcinogenicity)"
indicators. They acknowledge, however, that there are many factors not
quantifiable that dictate the selection of a chemical for testing.
Environmental Management
Manufactured Organic Chemicals. The National Science Foundation
(NSF) has a program under way to identify 100 organic chemicals in commer-
cial use that deserve high priority for research with respect to their
ecological and health impacts when present in the environment in trace
(31)
quantities. Guidelines, developed by an NSF Advisory Panel to this study,
have been specified to identifying and ranking candidates for inclusion.
The approach requires the determination of "exposure" and "toxicity" factors
for each candidate chemical in the initial selection step. The exposure
indicator specified (called "Release Rate" by the Panel) is derived from
the following equation:
R = (P + I)FD + PFp>L>
where
R = Release rate
P = Annual U.S. production of the compound
1 = Annual quantity imported
Fn = Fraction of the material that goes to nondispersive uses
F = Fraction of the production that is lost during manufac-
P. Li.
turing, conversion, and product formulation and that
escapes from the plant site.
The Committee recognized the limitations of this definition. It ignores
persistency of the compound, its propensity to be transported by air and
water, and its bioactivity. Nevertheless, it is to be utilized to select
17
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a preliminary listing of 250 compounds from which 100 would be selected
based on further information on toxicity and other effects data.
This approach by NSF is notable in the context of this study
because it is one of the few examples of an attempt to select problem
substances using available economic data as a step in the screening
process. The results of this effort were not available for review at
the time of this report.
Alternative Methodologies Considered
Initial efforts in this project involved the development of
three major alternative approaches for identifying future toxic substance
pollution problems. They are
The economics-based approach
The toxicology-based approach
The scientific opinion-based approach.
Each of these approaches has advantages and disadvantages that become
apparent as application of the approach is developed.
The Economics-Based Approach
This approach is illustrated in Figure 3. It involves develop-
ment of a method for ranking products exchanged in the marketplace for
their potential for future pollution problems. In this methodology, the
products are ranked and the top ranked products are further examined for
their chemical (and toxic substance pollution potential) content. Toxic
substance potential among the chemicals is summarized using frequency,
distribution, and quantity measures. Based on this, the chemicals are
ranked to form a future toxic substance list.
The number of products that will be dealt with to determine
the chemical content is chosen by the user of the methodology based on
the amount of resources available for detailed analysis of the chemical
content of the products.
18
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MEASURE GROWTH, DISPERSION,
TECHNICAL CHANGE, AND
VALUE FOR PRODUCTS
RANK PRODUCTS
CHOOSE THE x TOP
RANKED PRODUCTS
DENTIFY CHEMICALS AND
TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN
THESE PRODUCTS
SUMMARIZE THE FREQUENCY,
DISTRIBUTION, AND QUANTITY
OF THE TOXIC SUBSTANCES
RANK THE TOXIC SUBSTANCES
-FORM A LIST-
RANK PRODUCTS
IDENTIFY CHEMICAL
AND TOXIC SUBSTANCE
CONTENT
RANK SUBSTANCES
FIGURE 3. ECONOMICS-BASED METHODOLOGY
19
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Advantages. The major advantages of this approach are that it
fulfills the criteria for being systematic and comprehensive. The futuristic
characteristics of the approach are imbedded in the parameters that are
developed for the economic screening. The initial steps in the methodology
can be undertaken based on secondary data that are currently available.
The results of the initial screening of products provide a list of products
that represent potential for future pollution problems, including possible
problems other than toxic substance problems. This means the results at
this step could be applicable to identifying pollution problems in other
media.
Disadvantages. The major disadvantage of this approach is that
the transition from products to chemical constituents and subsequently
toxic substances of concern is a difficult step.
The Toxicology-Based Approach
Figure 4 illustrates the steps in this approach. It is similar
in many respects to the economics-based approach in that it uses sequential
screening of products. However, in this approach the first screen is
performed based on the potential toxicological properties of the product
of concern. Subsequent screening using economic criteria permit ranking
of products based on characteristics of their use in the economy. From
these two steps, a list of products is obtained that is converted into
constituent chemicals. These chemicals are examined using summary
statistics to rank them in importance.
Advantages. The major advantages of this approach are similar
to those listed for the economics-based methodology in that the approach
is both systematic and comprehensive. The futuristic elements are included
in the economic screening phase of the approach.
Disadvantages. The disadvantages of this approach are that the
initial screening phase, based on toxicological properties of the products
is very expensive to perform. Toxicological data on all products are not
20
-------
IDENTIFY THE POTENTIAL
TOXIC SUBSTANCE PROBLEMS
FOR PRODUCTS
RANK PRODUCTS
CHOOSE THE x TOP
RANKED PRODUCTS
CALCULATE GROWTH, DISPERSION
AND TECHNICAL CHANGE FOR THE
x TOP RANKED PRODUCTS
RANK THE x TOP RANKED
PRODUCTS USING ECONOMIC
AND TOXICITY CRITERIA
IDENTIFY CHEMICALS AND
TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN
THESE PRODUCTS
SUMMARIZE THE FREQUENCY,
DISTRIBUTION, AND QUANTITY
OF THE TOXIC SUBSTANCES
RANK THE TOXIC SUBSTANCES
- FORM A LIST-
o
x
o
o
ID
o
&
CL
O
UJ
o
o
o
o
o
I
h-
u
UJ
cc
Z)
-------
readily available and would have to be developed for many products. In
addition, a preliminary screen on toxicological properties would have to
be based on known toxicity potential of products, thus the futuristic
aspects of the approach would be weakened because unknown future toxic
substances couldn't be identified at such an early stage. Finally, the
difficulties in developing the information on the chemical content of the
products that occurs in the application of the economics-based approach
would apply for this approach as well.
The Scientific Opinion-Based Approach
This approach is illustrated in Figure 5. It involves the com-
pilation of information from the literature and from expert opinion to
identify a list of potential future problems. First, a rough screen is
employed to identify products that might be important based on toxicity
and growth characteristics. Then the literature is reviewed with respect
to these products and a tentative list is compiled that indicates potential
toxic substance problems. This list is used in contacts with experts
knowledgeable about the products and potential associated toxic substances
to determine the adequacy of the list. In this process the list might be
added to or deleted from with the ultimate objective of refining the list
so that it summarizes opinion regarding potential problems.
Advantages. The major advantage of this approach is that it
provides a method for obtaining a reasonably workable list quickly. The
list may turn up fairly obscure problems that might become quite impor-
tant over time. It provides a method to collect and summarize expert
knowledge and opinion regarding potential future toxic substances.
The activities may be undertaken in direct proportion to the availability
of resources.
Disadvantages. The major disadvantage of this approach is that
it duplicates activities that have been or are currently being done by
other agencies in identifying substances of concern. Furthermore, the
22
-------
LITERATURE REVIEW
CHOOSE ON THE BASIS
OF TOXICITY AND
GROWTH SCREEN
OF PRODUCTS
COMPILE A LIST
CONTACT EXPERTS
REVISE LIST
REPORT LIST
FIGURE 5. APPROACH INVOLVING USE OF EXPERT OPINION
AND OTHER INFORMATION
23
-------
approach is not systematic and is not comprehensive. A different set of
experts might identify a completely different set of problems. After
applying the approach, one cannot assert that all activities of man have
been considered in the review process. If there is no literature or no
expert contacted, then the area would be missed.
Choice of the Economics-Based Approach
Preliminary steps were taken in each of these approaches, but
the economics-based approach was adopted for most detailed development.
For the toxicology-based approach, the high cost involved in the initial
toxicological screening of products was the factor that reduced it in
desirability. At an interim project meeting with the Project Officer,
the decision was made that remaining resources would be devoted to the
development of the economics-based approach. The scientific opinion-
based approach was pursued in a preliminary way only because various
agencies are already actively pursuing this approach or one similar to
it.
Preliminary screening of manufacturing sectors of the economy
was performed to select Chemicals and Allied Products as a group of SIC's
that warrant additional attention, based on potential for future toxic
substance pollution problems. Because significant cost would be involved
in continuing this approach in greater detail, the development of the
toxicological approach stopped with the completion of this step. The
results were used, however, to narrow the scope of inquiry in the appli-
cation of the economics-based approach.
The Economics-Based Methodology
The economics-based approach is designed to be a futuristic,
systematic, and comprehensive approach for identifying potential future
pollution problems. The futuristic aspect of the approach is introduced
through information on trends in historical growth of economic production,
projections of future growth and projections of future technical change.
24
-------
The approach is systematic because all steps in the application of the
methodology are replicable. The comprehensiveness of the approach is
embodied in the fact that it is designed to consider all of man's economic
activity.
Economic activity is chosen as the basis for the methodology
because virtually all exposure to pollutants results from the production,
exchange, and consumption of goods and services. The exposure that occurs
as a result of waste material disposal (residuals) is accounted for in
this approach through including factors on technological change and
dispersion of product. The economics-based approach deals with exposure
implicitly through both the dispersion factor and value of product.
However, an explicit analysis of exposure could be useful in the ranking
of chemicals as constituents of products. The work being done by SRI for
NCI suggests four areas where exposure may occur
Environmental
Household
Avocational
(29)
Occupational.
Alternatively, opportunities for exposure might be classified on the basis
of activities such as
Home living
Transportation to work
The work environment
Recreation and other activities.
It is important to identify the type, level, or duration of exposure that
occurs for a given product. While this information is important in ranking
products for consideration, the costs of obtaining the specific information
for each product are prohibitive. Exposure may also be important in ranking
specific chemicals that are identified as potential problem chemicals.
However, some aspects of exposure will depend on the characteristics of the
chemical itself. Because of the high costs involved, an explicit consideration
of exposure should await preliminary economic screening of products and
chemicals. Having chosen a list of high priority items for consideration,
detailed exposure analysis could be used to further screen the candidates
on the list.
25
-------
The Use of Input-Output
The development of the economics-based approach is predicated on
the assumption that information regarding future toxic substance pollution
problems can be obtained from data on the production, exchange, and
consumption of goods and services. All of these factors are embodied in
an input-output model of the U.S. economy that projects into future time
periods.
Composition and magnitude of future pollution and/or toxic sub-
stance generation is a function of two forces acting on the U.S. and world
economies:
Technological change in industrial processes and
products
Shift in consumption patterns.
Changing production and product technology is the largest contri-
( 8 )
buting factor to generation of direct and indirect toxic substances.
Technological change occurs in a variety of ways including:
Development of more "efficient" capital stock
(equipment, machines, vehicles) that produces
greater value of services per unit of input
Development of more "efficient" production
processes that result in increased output per
unit of labor and materials input
Development of new materials lowering the labor
or material costs component of production
(plastics replacing wood in some uses, drywall
replacing plaster, etc.)
Development of new consumer products (aerosol
hairsprays replacing hair oils).
The generation of direct and indirect toxic substances due to
shifts in consumption patterns probably cannot be analyzed separately from
changing product composition. Changing consumer tastes and preferences
may be an independent force inducing corporations to develop new products
and production technologies, but there is considerable professional
controversy over the role and extent of consumer sovereignty in the
American economic systems. For purposes of this analysis, no attempt
is made to develop an independent methodology for predicting future
26
-------
composition of consumption.*
The methodology focuses on using the relationship between technical
change in production and products on the one hand and generation/dispersion
of toxic substances through products on the other to identify potential
products of concern.
Technical Considerations
Analysis of future toxic substances generation requires a sys-
tematic procedure for dealing with the highly complex interrelatedness of
the American economy. Traditional input-output analysis offers a practical
framework for accomplishing this analysis. Statistical input-output
analysis measures the value flows between producers of output on the one
hand and input users and final consumers on the other. For an n-industry
economy the interindustry coefficients are arranged as a matrix.
where a is a matrix element representing sales from sector i to
sector j expressed as a fraction of the output from sector j.
In addition to the requirements of the n-industries for inputs, there is
also a final demand sector. Thus, if industry i is to produce output
sufficient to meet input requirements of all other industries as well as
final demand, its total output (x ) is specified by the following equation.
Xl = 311X1 + 312X2 + ...... alnXn+dl (1)
where d is the final demand for the output of Industry 1. The equation
can be rewritten as
(1- an)x1 - «12x2 - ...... alnxn = d][ (2)
For the system of n-industry equations, this would be
(I - A)x = d (3)
* Projection of future consumption patterns have been attempted and can
be employed,
27
-------
where
I = nxn identity matrix
A = nxn coefficients matrix
x = nxl industry output vector
d = nxl vector of final demands
If (I - A) is nonsingular, a solution to (3) exists represented by
x = (I - A)"^ (4)
_]
where (I - A) is termed the inverse matrix and contains coefficients that
reflect the direct and indirect requirements for each industry to produce
one dollar's worth of final output. This matrix is highly useful since it
is possible to premultiply any final demand vector by the inverse to
produce a new solution vector for industry outputs. The information imbedded
in the matrix is utilized for the systematic assessment of the implications
of technical change on the generation of future pollution problems. It is
also used in measuring the dispersion of sectoral output through the
economy.
The interindustry coefficients matrix, under certain limiting
assumptions and statistical provisions, represents the present "technical
structure" of the economy. That is, the present relative input requirements
at present prices for each output are depicted by the coefficients. Because
the economy and the factors that affect the economy do not remain static,
the statistical coefficients change over time. Part of the change in
coefficients represents real technical change in input-output relationships.
However, the coefficients also include prices because the requirements are
expressed in terms of present prices.
The conceptual basis for using an input-output model to analyze
potential development of future toxic substance problems is based on four
factors that can potentially generate future toxic substance problems. The
factors that can, in theory, be examined using the input-output framework
are:
Introduction of new technologies or materials in
the production procesaes causing a change in the
interindustry coefficients matrix designated as A
28
-------
Diffusion of new technologies or new materials across
a greater number of industries
Growth in final der.and assuming present composition
(designated as d)
Change in composition of final demand as well as
growth (designated as d1).
Thus by changing the technical coefficients and the level or composition of
final demand (or both) the input-output structure can be used to portray
changing economic conditions. Correlation of toxic substance problems with
changed economic structure can be accomplished in one of two ways. The
most rigorous approach would be that proposed by Leontief in which "residuals"
(27)
from each industrial sector are included in the model. Net residuals
represent the degree of treatment of effluents provided in each sector.
Untreated residuals are depicted as accruing to final demand. Data require-
ments for this approach, unfortunately, limit its immediate usefulness for
the problem at hand. In addition, identification of residuals presupposes
knowledge of a problem whereas this project is to identify the potential
problem. What is desired is an approach that uses available data to show
points in the economic system at which toxic substance problems may emerge.
Steps in the Methodology
The methodology that is developed is specifically directed toward
identification of product categories that warrant special attention because
of growth, dispersion, technical change, or value of shipments factors.
Having ranked products according to these factors, the complete application
of the methodology requires the identification of specific product char-
acteristics that indicate whether or not the product has potential toxic
substance pollution properties. In particular, the chemical make-up of
the product must be identified and potential toxic substances among these
should be identified.
The initial step in the methodology, the economic screening, does
not specifically address toxic substances but the application of criteria
related to potential toxicity for products in various SIC's is performed
to narrow the list of products and associated chemicals considered.
29
-------
Product Ranking. There are a variety of information sources that
provide insight regarding what products should be of concern. Census data,
labor statistics, and professional opinion in various forms all contribute
to identifying high priority products. The economics-based methodology
combines this information for a given product in such a way as to perndt
products to be ranked in order of importance. Therefore, there is associated
with any product, p, information on growth, dispersion, technological
change, and quantity. The rank of the product in terms of its potential
for future pollution problems based on economic criteria, R , depends on
these factors.
R = f(d,g,t,v)
d = dispersion
g = growth
t = technical change
v = value of product.
The data used to prepare indices for all factors are available in various
levels of completeness and detail. However, all information collected is
related to the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) of products. Value of
shipments data are collected on a product-by-product basis. Growth data
are available both at the product code level and at the 3- or 4-digit SIC
levels. Dispersion and technological change data are collected and used
at the 3- and 4-digit SIC levels. Some information on dispersion, for
example, is available only at the 2-digit level. Therefore, these data
apply to all products that have those 2 digits as the first two in the
product code.
In ranking products for their relative importance as contributing
to potential future pollution problems, data on the selected criteria must
be combined. Growth data are obtained on the basis of annual percentages,
dispersion data are calculated as an index, technical change data are
calculated as an index, and value of product data are collected in dollars
per year. These factors are not defined in commensurate units. A simple
method for converting these data to common units was applied. For example,
growth rates ranging from -20 to +30 percent per year are converted to a
* Value of shipments data are reported in Appendix B.
30
-------
scale that ranges from 0.00 to 1.0. Similarly, value, technical change,
and dispersion are also converted to a similar scale.
1.0
.9
Index .5
0.0
-20
Index =
f(Growth Rate)
+30
percent annual
growth rates
FIGURE 6. METHOD FOR THE CONVERSION OF FACTORS TO COMMON UNITS
From Figure 6 a growth rate of 1 percent per year is converted to 0.5 in
the index. In this manner, the growth rate, g, would be converted to an
index, I , that has the same range as the index for dispersion, technological
g
change, and value. Thus:
The rank of the product is determined as a function of the indices. The
growth factor was expanded to incorporate both historical growth and future
growth, primarily because the sources of data for these two elements were
different. Thus, the final formulation as applied for product ranking
is:
R
h If
g' V
V V-
31
-------
The relative importance of each factor in the ranking procedure was taken
into account in calculating the ranking. The ranking of the products is
calculated according to the following formula:
R = a, Ih + a. If + a. I , + a. I + a. I .
p Ig 2g 3d 4 t 5 v
where the a's are determined judgmentally.* The method that was employed
to establish relative importance was a modified Delphi technique using
selected project participants.
Chemicajl Content Analysis. After ranking the products, the method-
ology requires that information on the chemical content of the products be
collected for a group of higher ranked products. This type of information is
available from secondary sources for some products but not for all of them.**
Data on the chemical content of the products would be examined for the
types of chemicals that could lead to toxic substance problems. Thus, the
product, p, is composed of chemicals:
C = [ C , C , C , C ],
p 1 L J n
but only a subset of all chemicals is likely to lead to toxic substance
problems. Others may lead to air, water, or land-related pollution
problems; however, toxic substance-related chemicals are the important ones
for this study.
Chemical Substance Ranking. Each product is ranked according to
economic criteria and, for selected products, information on associated
toxic substance-related chemicals is obtained. If this analysis were completed
for all products, toxic substance problems would be identified by examining
a matrix that lists ranked products on one axis and chemicals*** on the other:
To remove judgment completely is impossible but the method for recording
and synthesizing judgment is made explicit. In addition, it may be
possible to estimate these coefficients statistically, but this was not
attempted in this research.
** See page 75 which discusses our findings on the availability of chemical
constituent data.
*** It may be useful to reduce the list of chemicals by dealing only with
'toxic substance-related" chemicals. However, this definition is diffi-
cult to implement in screening chemicals. Thus, if the list of products
is small enough, all chemicals could be included in the matrix. The
analysis of chemical components of SIC 2844 (see Table 12, pp 76,77)
suggests that the large number of chemicals in products may make this a
very costly task. _
-------
P = all products
P = [ P , P2, P3 PTO ] for m products
C = all chemicals
C = [ C-, C_, C_ C ] for n chemicals.
th
In the matrix in Figure 7, t^, is the quantity of the nt potential
toxic substance used in the m product. The total volume of the chemical,
Vn' iS mSnn' Frecluency> fn> is the number of products containing chemical
C . In addition to the total volume and frequency of occurrence of t in
n ran
C a coefficient of dispersion of chemicals, d , could be calculated,
n n
using a procedure similar to that employed in calculating dispersion for
the products.
t
mn
Let V = £ t (the fraction t is of the total, Z t )
mn mn mii mn
ra m
ana d = Z v log v
n mn ° Tmn
m
This would be interpreted such that for C and C if d
-------
Chemicals
Products C, C. C_ C
123 n
P. t t t t..
1 11 12 13 In
p » t~ f
2 21 22 23
P3 fc31 fc32 t33
P t t
m ml mn
Total V, V
1 n
Frequency f f
Dispersion d d
where t = quantity of C used .in. product P (for many cells, t may
take on a value of zero)
V = E t (total quantity)
n m nrn ^ J
f = frequency
d = dispersion
FIGURE 7. MATRIX FOR EVALUATING THE INCIDENCE
OF CHEMICAL SUBSTANCES IN PRODUCTS
34
-------
The results of the full application of the methodology would provide an
ordered list of chemical substances of concern.
The methodology was applied and demonstrated on a limited basis.
From Figure 3 it may be seen that the major steps in the application of
the methodology are:
(1) Rank products according to growth, dispersion,
technical change, and value criteria
(2) Identify chemical and toxic substance content of
high ranked products
(3) Rank substances on the basis of frequency,
distribution, and quantity.
Step (1) has been performed for all Chemical and Allied Products (SIC 28).
Step (2) has been done for Toilet Preparations (SIC 2844), and the possi-
bility of performing Step (3) is indicated by the list of chemicals for
SIC 2844 but the actual construction of the matrix to perform this task
would require considerable resources, beyond the scope of this contract.
Data Requirements
In the application of the economics-based approach, a substantial
amount of economic data are collected and summarized in the various para-
meters that comprise the ranking of the products. A comprehensive catalog
of economic data for the economy, developed for a broad range of activity,
helps improve comparability among parameters and between products reviewed.
However, no uniform, consistent data base was identified that could be
used for this study. Thus, the data are developed from general sources.
The two major data collection phases of the research necessary
to implement the economics-based methodology are
The collection of economic data related to the
products
t The collection of chemical content data related
to the products.
Activities that demonstrate the feasibility of both of these phases were
undertaken. The collection of data for the economic screening of products
and the organization of the data for performing the product ranking
35
-------
embodied a large portion of the effort on this project. A lesser level
of effort was devoted to determining whether or not it is feasible to
collect and systematize data on the chemical content of various products.
Less emphasis was placed on this phase for two reasons. First, it became
clear that although it is possible to identify the chemical components of
a product, the cost of this identification process might be quite high
for some products. Second, the preliminary results of the project that
is being done for NCI and work on the chemical content of water-polluting
products by EPA indicate that identification of chemical (and thus toxic
(13 29)
substance) content of a product is feasible. '
Because there is a large amount of economic data that might be
reievant to the question of whether or not a product has the potential
for future toxic substance pollution problems, it was necessary to develop
a method for collecting and summarizing the data to provide a ranking of
products. To do this, data on the subject parameters were collected and
indices were developed for each one. These indices were combined, using
a weighting method to form a composite index that ranks products for their
potential for future pollution problems. There are two primary sources
of data, the U.S. Census of Manufactures and input-output models of the
United States' economy. The input-output models that were used were a
127-sector model developed by Battelle as part of the PREVIEWS 85 program
(see Appendix A for a brief overview of the PREVIEWS 85 model) and the 1967 QBE
( ^6^
table). The PREVIEWS model is used to project input-output relation-
ships into future time periods and the QBE table was used initially to
develop dispersion indices. The approach developed for ranking products
could use the results of any input-output model that produces, as output,
the technical coefficients for future time periods, although the credibility
of the results depends on the quality of the coefficients.*
The Census of Manufactures data are used to estimate historical
growth by product. From this estimate the index of historical growth is
calculated. The value of shipments is used as a measure of the quantity
of product that is exchanged and Census of Manufactures data are used
for developing the index based on this data also.
* These models were used in this analysis for convenience only and were not
evaluated for credibility. In general, however, the exante approach for
estimating coefficients used in the PREVIEWS model is more futuristic
than the statistical approach of the QBE model.
36
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SECTION V
CRITERIA PRODUCT RANKING
The separate ranking of products is important in this methodology
because, recognizing limitation on resources, the agency concerned about
future pollution problems must begin somewhere. With a product ranking,
research can be prioritized and the scope of inquiry narrowed to a subset
of the total list of 5,000 products depending on the availability of
resources for obtaining more detailed product related data on chemical
make-up and (perhaps) exposure.
Full application of the economic-based approach would identify
toxic chemical problems based on historical data, projections based on
historical changes, projections of future conditions based on expert
opinion, and information on the chemical content of products. The major
factor limiting the full application of the methodology is resources.
However, in this project the approach is applied at a reduced level of
effort to demonstrate the methodology by undertaking steps that limit
the scope of the analysis.
o The number of products considered is reduced by
preliminary screening on the basis of "potential"
for future toxic substance pollution problems.
The number of products for which specific chemical
content data and potential toxic substance data
are collected was reduced by choosing to collect the
data for a limited group of products.
To utilize the economic methodology described in identifying
potential future toxic substances it was necessary to select a sector of
the economy that would contain activities in which physical input and/or
output might contain these substances.
Based on a preliminary screening of 4-digit SIC's the application
of the methodology was limited to Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28).
The results of the preliminary screening are presented in Table 2. In this
37
-------
TABLE 2. RANKING OF 4-DIGIT SIC'S IN EACH
SECTOR (2-DIGIT SIC'S)
Sector*
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
No. of
4-digits
45
4
32
32
11
11
16
15
27
5
5
10
26
24
27
39
34
16
4
21
404
No.
Ranked 1 ' s
1
2
3
0
0
0
2
0
19
5
1
1
8
6
3
0
2
0
0
0
53
No.
Ranked 2's
30
2
29
32
5
0
13
9
8
0
3
0
14
18
1
2
3
2
0
8
179
No,
Ranked 3's
14
0
0
0
6
11
1
6
0
0
1
9
4
0
23
37
29
14
4
13
172
* Each 2-digit SIC is an economic sector.
Source: Battelle ranking.
38
-------
procedure a number 1 ranking indicated that the SIC was highly likely
to contain products that would cause future toxic substance pollution
problems. A ranking of 3 indicates that the SIC is unlikely to contain
products with future toxic substance pollution problems. If the SIC lay
somewhere between these two classes it was assigned a rank of 2. Table 2
shows the number of 4-digit SIC's that are contained in each 2-digit SIC
for each rank. From these results Sector 28 was chosen for more detailed
study.
Chemical constituents by product were examined for Toilet
Preparations (SIC 2844).* Results of this work are presented in the
next section.
After reducing the scope to manageable size, it was possible
to utilize data on an industry and, more specifically, product level to
develop a systematic "economic" screening process to produce a ranked
list of products and industries. These could be used as further input into
a toxicological screening process and analyzed for potential toxicity.
The Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system, as employed in the
economic Census of Manufactures, was used as the basis for industry and
product identification. Overall, there are approximately 420 4-digit
(19-39) containing several thousand 7-digit products. Within SIC 28 there
are 760 products that must be ranked. Because of the large number of
products and industries, and to facilitate the screening process, a
computer program was developed to rank the products.
Ranking is a function of various parameters. These are
historical growth, dispersion, technical change, future growth, and value
of shipments related to the subject product. These factors were combined
in a formula by normalizing the various types of data on these variables,
thus converting them into common units, then applying a weighting factor,
and finally summing the factors times their weights to produce a composite
index indicating the potential importance of a product. The weights that
were used to rank products are:
Historical growth - 2.90
Future growth - 2.43
* This SIC was chosen as an example with products likely to have a large
number of chemical constituents.
39
-------
Dispersion - 2.36
e Technical change - 1.35
» Value of product - 1.13.
The purpose of this section is to discuss in detail each of the
parameters that are utilized in the economic methodology.
Historical Growth
By comparing the quantitative changes in growth from year to
year in output data related to a product, it is possible to observe how
much the output of a particular product has changed over time. For the
purposes of this study, however, the rate of growth of production indicating
how fast production growth is occurring is of greater significance than
the amount of growth. When the composite ranking index is compiled, the
growth rates of subject products are one factor considered. Fast-growth
products or groups of products within an industry are more likely to cause
future pollution problems than those of declining or relatively slower
growth. Furthermore, the rate of growth also indicates the need for new
productive capacity and this may be associated with technological change.
The computerized product growth rate calculations for the
economic methodology were performed historically for a 14-year time span.
Using the Census of Manufactures Industry Statistics for 1958, 1963, 1967,
and 1972 as a data base, rate of growth calculations were completed for
28 4-digit industries in the SIC major group 28, Chemicals and Allied
Products. They are the following:
2812 Alkalies and Chlorine 2843 Surface Active and
2813 Industrial Gases Finishing Agents
2815 Cyclic Crudes and 2844 Toilet ^ePations
Intermediates 2851 Paints and Allied Products
2816 Inorganic Pigments 2861 Gum and Wood Chemicals
2819 Industrial Inorganic 2869 Industrial Organic
Chemicals Chemicals, N.E.C.
2873 Nitrogenous Ferti!
2874 Phosphatic Fertilizers
2821 Plastics Materials and 2873 Nitrogenous Fertilizers
Resins
2822 Synthetic Rubber
40
-------
2823 Cellulosic Man-Made Fibers 2875 Fertilizers, Mixing Only
2824 Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic 2879 Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C.
2831 Biological Products 2891 Adhesives and Sealants
2833 Medicinals and Botanicals 2892 Explosives
2834 Pharmaceutical Preparations 2893 Printing Ink
2841 Soap and Other Detergents 2895 Carbon Black
2842 Polishes and Sanitation Goods 2899 Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.
Data Base
For each of these 28 industries various types of data have been
collected and published by the Census of Manufactures. Among these are
data on manufacturing establishments relating to value added by manu-
facturing expenditures, inventories, and value and quantity of products
shipped. To derive rates of growth for each specific group of related
products, value of products shipped was used.
Value of shipments (i.e., value of products) is reported using
the establishment as the reporting unit and is based on net selling value,
FOB plant, after discount and allowances and excluding freight charges
and excise taxes. In addition, manufacturers report receipts for contract
work performed for others, resale, receipts for miscellaneous activities
such as sale of scrap or refuse, and the value of installation and repair
work performed by the plant employees. Multiestablishment companies are
asked to report value information for each establishment as if it were a
separate economic unit. They are instructed to report the value of all
products transferred to other plants of the company at their full economic
value, that is, to include a reasonable proportion of company overhead and
profits.
Value of shipments information was typically available for all
the products in the sample except in cases where the figures of individual
companies were withheld, by law, to avoid disclosure. It was not available
if the collection of value figures was not applicable in a particular
instance, or the value was less than 0.1 million dollars when rounded.
41
-------
Typically, classification of establishments for which data are
tabulated in the Census of Manufactures is determined by current
definitions and coding structures in the Standard Industrial Classification
manual. However, from one census to the next the code numbers may be
changed and/or there may be changes in the content of an industry in
comparison with data from the previous classification. For example, 1972
SIC 2869, Industrial Organic Chemicals, N.E.C.. was under code number 2818
in 1967. Similarly, in 1972, Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C., contained
Household Insecticides and Repellents, including Industrial Exterminants,
which were previously found in SIC 2842, Polishes and Sanitation Goods.
These changes, however, were not major problems in the data
collection for the ranking program. Fortunately, the Census of Manufactures
provides bridge tables that explain the reorganization of what constitutes
a given code classification.
Nevertheless, there were some constraints in establishing the
data base. These constraints were generally of three types of which the
major ramification was the occasional forfeit of data for a certain year,
leaving the ranking to only 9 years, or 5, or 4. The first constraint was
unavailability of data for any given year for a particular product. The
circumstances for these deletions were previously mentioned, but to
reiterate, they were (1) figures withheld to avoid disclosure (D), (2) not
applicable (X), (3) not available (NA), and (4) less than 0.1 million
dollars when rounded (-). For example,
1972 1967 1963 1958
25.0 19.0 (X) (NA)
Second, because the Census of Manufactures has been refining its industry
classifications and providing greater detail in current years, the
definition of an earlier classification may contain several products while in
the classification of the following census these products may each have
its own classification. Thus, the product codes may not be comparable
among years. To remedy this situation, it was necessary to combine the
value of shipment amounts for the newly segregated industries to make them
once again comparable within their original grouping. This was done,
however, at the expense of the useful individual product detail.
42
-------
Third, a combination of the first and second, was the case of
having to delete 1 year due to incomparable definitions of categories.
After the data base was collected and a coding format was
prepared, data cards were keypunched and readied for computation. The
cards contain the following information:
(1) Product code number
(2) SH (indicating that shipments information was used)
(3) For how many years data were available, i.e., 1, 2,
3, 4 (1958, 1963, 1967, 1972)
(4) Unit of measure of quantity of shipments (to be
discussed separately) or label (always million
dollars) for value of shipments
(5) Year of data
(6) Quantity of shipments
(7) Value of shipments*
Rate of Growth Calculation
The computer subprogram for rate of growth was executed
specifically on value of shipments data. The following formula was used
to calculate rate of growth:
Xt = XQ (1 + r)fc
where
r = rate of growth per time period
t = number of years
X = value of shipments at t=0, or base year
X = value of shipments after 7 years.
For example, given values of 1958, 1963, 1967, and 1972 growth rates
were calculated for each time period between the years for which there were
data, beginning the process with the earliest available year as the base
* Growth rate estimates based on value of shipments is biased because of the
potential for differential growth rates for pieces of the products. Data
to normalize for price changes did not exist but if available could be-
used to adjust value of shipments data to hold relative prices constant.
43
-------
year. Finally, the total growth rate, describing the period from the
original base year to the most current year, was computed.* This total
growth rate can be used to rank the products within an industry, with the
fastest growing products heading the list.
The resulting computer output for application of the rate of
growth subroutine for Medicinals and Botanicals (SIC 2833) is presented
in Table 3.** The table is an optional output of the ranking program.
Table 4 is a list of product codes and their definitions for
SIC 2833. The definitions of products in industry 2833 are consistent
with those offered in the Census report; however, as mentioned previously,
some rearranging was necessary in defining products of other industries
within major group 28, to render data comparable from year to year.
The 1958 value of shipments data for SIC 2833 is not included
in Table 6. This is because in 1958 collection of these data were
classified "not applicable" by the Census of Manufactures and thus, not
reported. However, the computer program is equipped to adjust to this
deletion and computes rate of growth statistics for the remaining 9-year
period.
The results show that product code 29332 61, Other Organic
Medicinal Chemicals, was the fastest growing product within the industry
Medicinals and Botanicals.
The total growth rate from base year 1963 when value of shipments
of products was 14.5 million dollars to 1972 when value of shipments of
products climbed to 53.1 million dollars was 17.75 percent per annum. The
growth rate was the most rapid between 1963 and 1967 at 22.26 percent per
annum and although the monetary value shipments continued to increase between
* Although the total growth rate was used in ranking, it is useful in the
comparison of high ranked products to know which was growing most rapidly
in the most recent time period. Therefore, the intermediate growth rates
are also calculated.
** The Medicinals and Botanicals Industry, as defined by the Census of Manu-
facturers, "includes establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing
bulk organic and inorganic chemicals and their derivatives and (2) proc-
essing (grading, grinding, and milling) bulk botanical drugs and herbs.
This industry also includes establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing
agar-agar and similar products of natural origin, and endocrine products;
manufacturing or isolating basic vitamins; and isolating active medicinal
principals such as alkaloids from botanical drugs and herbs".
44
-------
TABLE 3. VALUE OF SHIPMENTS OF PRODUCTS FOR SIC 2833
tn
2
?
7
?
7
1072. 'J..J.J ."'
C ,vOr.
1332 -it 1 ILL. , 4 . .
/.I 32 11 :,i_.ij< :. .- ._.
:) 'S .'{? 2 1 .'. I.:, i J . ^l -
.'I 3> -- .-. i-. Li. > . ,j. .
J <31 L 0 . i-^. / : . ,.
>^J1 "- '.kLi)l l«'/i_
3JJ>JL '1Lt;^'; Jj"
2-U.i? -.1 nikti < . : -
T.l-i. LJ
. r , ti
L J^
1L i_) .
. 1 1 1 > j . i
. i , y - . . 2 J . 0
. ' J'r . 1-1..?. .
..it- 2..u. 2
. u . J 1 .j /
- . C ,? I ^
°
-.' 1 H
r-_
. 1) % .0
.o-;7
. 1 )
vl
(1
5
i
1 i
M. v . 03 i-1 il
l.y .0776
t . ^
T «
-. 0
-. 0
*JO
Hd2 ...
7
_'J
^ .
0.
1.
A'.
1.
9.
1.
i J
1
\*
1
2
0
Or. JNI -1
i- A r^
.282-.
-. Jl 52 .._
3'3-J
. 0677
.0027
- . 0 0 .< y
I'-'t/ J
; r.hiwTH 5-1-jd
VALJc. KATE Va>.U£
(l-lL i \ JMIL J
1*..
5 .
127.
1.
9.
21.
5
3
3
7
7
1
3
Source: Battelle program output.
-------
TABLE 4. PRODUCT NAMES FOR SIC 2833
Product Code
Product Name
28331
28331 10
28331 20
28332
28332 13
28332 21
28332 41
28332 61
28332 81
28332 99
Synthetic Organic Medicinal Chemicals, in bulk
Antibiotics, including all such uses as veterinary
food supplements, food preservation, crop spraying,
etc., but excluding antibiotic preparations
Other Synthetic Organic Medicinal Chemicals, except
antibiotics
Other Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products,
in bulk, N.E.C.
Botanical Drugs
Naturally-Occurring Vitamins (from yeast, plants,
fish, liver, etc.)
Drugs of Animal Origin, including dried glands and
other animal organs and tissues and extractions
thereof
Other Organic Medicinal Chemicals
Inorganic Medicinal Chemicals
Other Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products,
in bulk, N.E.C., n.s.k.
N.E.C. - Not elsewhere classified.
n.s.k. - Not specified by kind.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Census of
Manufactures. Industry Series, Preliminary Report (1972).
46
-------
1967 and 1972, the growth rate declined. Although activity may have
declined within the most current period of time, product code 28332 61
had the highest overall growth rate relative to the other products in
the industry.
Table 5 presents an overall ranking based on historical growth
rates for all products in Chemical and Allied Products sector of the
economy. These are the top 25 products ranked by annual growth rate.
Appendix C contains a complete listing of historical growth of value of
shipments for all Chemical and Allied Products.
Future Growth
Although the historical growth of a product and its use is an
important factor in identifying those products that are likely to cause
problems in the future, ideally, one would use future growth of the
product. Unfortunately, we do not have observations of the future growth
of a product, but instead only have projections of possible future growth
that is based on certain assumptions and information that indicate possible
future events. Therefore, although future growth is an ideal measure to
indicate the importance of a product, our information on future
growth as a parameter must be conditioned by the uncertainty involved in
making such estimates.
The rationale for including future growth as an important factor
is that most of the future pollution problems will probably come about as
a result of a change in the quantity or quality of products. Problems
that are known or that exist today will either remain to be discovered or
will be dealt with as appropriate. Future problems, although they may
be difficult to detect, will arise out of new and different arrangements
of products and human exposure to them. Because of this, it is necessary
to know what the changes in economic activity are likely to occur.
Data Base
A major source of information regarding future growth of products
is in the historical growth data. However, historical growth is included
as a separate parameter and therefore an alternative source was sought for
47
-------
TABLE 5. TOP 25 PRODUCTS BY
HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE
Product Code
28219 13
28199 98
28199 91
28514 21
28215 11
28794 71
28241 33
28992 99
28311 11
28341 43
28213 51
28315 23
28914 99
Product Name
Polyethylene Monofilaments
All Other Inorganic Chemicals, N.E.C.
Radioactive Isotopes shipped from non-
AEC plants producing Isotopes
Semigloss Water Emulsion Paints and
Tinting Bases
Epoxy (synthetic resin adhesives)
Rodenticides - Fumigants other than
soil fumiganto, including space
Staple, Tow, and Salable Waste
Fatty Acids, n.s.k.
Blood and Blood Derivatives
Antineoplastic Agents:
Radioactive Isotopes for internal use
Specific Antineoplastic Agents
Polypropylene Resins
Vaccines and Viruses
Synthetic Resins and Rubber Adhesives,
Growth Rate,
percent
86.89
36.85
35.49
33.55
30.74
30.29
30.19
30.19
27.95
26.89
25.01
24.25
28511 33
28211 15
28792 85
28518 53
28315 98
28345 73
28162 99
n.s.k. 24.18
Automotive and Machinery Refinish
Paints and Enamels, except lacquers 24.13
Cellulosic Unsupported Film, Sheets,
and Sheeting, less than 3.0 mils 23.09
Other Weed Killers (hydrocarbon, etc.)
including Defoliants (except sodium
chlorate preparations), Desiccants
(including arsenic acid), Algaecides,
Carbamates (including CIPC, EPTC,
CDAA, etc.) 23.06
Putty and Glazing Compounds 22.01
Other Biologies including antitoxins,
toxoids, and diagnostics 21.96
Other Diuretics 21.55
Other White Opaque Pigments, n.s.k. 21.49
48
-------
TABLE 5. (Continued)
Product Code
28342 95
28345 25
28932 31
28214 98
28349 45
Product Name
Other Eye and Ear Preparations,
including contact lens solutions
Fecal Softeners
News Inks, Publication Inks
Other Theraosetting Resins and Plastics
Materials, including alkyd (not for
protective coatings)
Parasiticides, External
Growth Rate,
percent
21.05
20.92
20.50
20.47
20.38
Source: Battelle program output.
49
-------
future growth rather than extrapolations (or other more sophisticated
relative shares analysis or time series analysis) of historical growth
to arrive at figures for future growth. Another alternative that was
(37)
considered as a source is Predicasts data on product growth. However,
these data were not available in a consistent pattern over all the sectors
of the economy and associated products of concern. Selected literature
on various products and industries is available that indicates potential
for future growth and expansion, but these sources, as others, are not
comprehensive and do not cover all the products that are being screened.
The comprehensiveness was obtained by using a national input-
output table that has been developed at Battelle. This table is prepared
by consulting with experts in the industries represented by the various
sectors of the economy. These experts provide estimates of the requirements
by a subject industry (as inputs) from all other industries. The table is
constructed for 1970 and 1985 based on expert opinion. It is used to
show the growth of economic activity by sector over that time period.
The advantage of using these data is that it represents
information regarding the direction that industries are moving, over time,
in changing their products and their input requirements. Although the long
time period suggests that the data must be subject to significant
uncertainty, in fact, the judgments that are made for future activity for
an industry are based on technology and requirements that are already on
the drawing boards for the subject industries. The capital budgets of
the industries must be formulated far enough in advance to permit planning,
design, and construction of the required facilities. For major technological
changes this may be as much as 10 or 15 years while for less dramatic changes
in operating procedures, the time period would be less.
Output vectors for years 1970 and 1985 were calculated, partly
conditioned by potential technological change, with the results being
expressed as a percentage annual growth by sector. The rate of growth
by sector was then applied to all of the products that are produced for
the given sector.
50
-------
Table 6 shows the projected annual growth rates for industries
in Allied and Chemical Products for the time period 1970 to 1985. These
are the data used in the ranking program. Appendix C contains a complete
listing of future growth rates for all sectors of the economy.
Dispersion
In determining the extent to which a product embodies a future
pollution problem, human exposure to the product is an important factor.
We are exposed to products in several ways. Exposure may occur in the
work place where many various substances may be combined to produce a
product and where the individual may be exposed to more dangerous forms of
input materials. Products are used both as input to other production
processes and in final consumption. Thus, the individual may also be
exposed to the product in the home or other area where it is consumed.
The more widely dispersed a product is, throughout the economy, the more
likely an individual is to be exposed to it. The "dispersion index" was
developed to capture this exposure.
Data Base
The index was designed to capture both the extent to which
products are transferred to other sectors of the economy and the volume
of the transfers. In the input-output framework, the "inverse" matrix
was chosen as indicative of the total transactions that take place in the
economy. Cells in the row of an inverse indicate the extent to which
products are delivered to all other sectors from the sector represented
by the subject. This includes both the direct requirements from other
industries and the indirect requirements by other sectors to produce
products for input into the subject sector. Thus, these coefficients
represent the dispersion of a given sector of the economy. An index that
would permit a comparison of dispersion among sectors was developed.
51
-------
TABLE 6. FUTURE GROWTH OF CHEMICALS
AND ALLIED PRODUCTS
Sector
Number
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.04
5.04
5.05
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.07
5.07
5.08
5.08
5.09
5.09
5.09
5.10
5.10
5.10
5.11
5.12
SIC Number
2812
2813
2815
2816
2818
2819
287L
28722
28790
2861
2891
28921
28930
28950
2899
2821
28220
2823
2824
2831
2833
2834
2841
2842
28430
2844
2851
Annual Rates
of Change
Sector Name 1970-1985
Alkalies and Chlorine
Industrial Gases
Cyclic Intermediates and Crudes
Inorganic Pigments
Industrial Organic Chemicals
Industrial Inorganic Chemicals
Fertilizers
Fertilizers, Mixing Only
Agricultural Chemicals, except
Fertilizers
Gum and Wood Chemicals
Adhesive s and Gelatin
Explosives, except Government- owned
Printing Ink
Carbon Black
Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.
Plastics Materials and Resins
Synthetic Rubber
Cellulosic Man-made Fibers
Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic
Biological Products
Medicinal s and Botanicals
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Soap and Other Detergents
Polishes and Sanitation Goods
Surface Active and Finishing Agents
Toilet Preparations
Paints and Allied Products
3.00
3.83
4.69
3.49
3.67
3.33
4.08
3.90
3.99
3.81
4.20
3,23
3.96
4.30
4.34
4.59
3.87
3.12
5.50
5.08
3.44
2.88
2.92
3.91
3.92
3.23
3.27
Source: PREVIEWS 85 program output.
52
-------
Dispersion Index
Assuming that maximum dispersion would be represented by a row
with all equal entries, an index based on the entropy concept used in
information theory (originating in thermodynamics) was developed. In this
technique, relative shares are weighted by their respective logarithms and
summed to produce an index of the degree of dispersion.
For example, a distribution with equal relative shares should
show more dispersion than a distribution in which one of the shares is very
large and the rest small.
The strength of this approach rests on the mathematical
relationship between fractions and their logarithms. In moving from 1 to 0
the corresponding logarithms increase in absolute terms at a rate faster than
the decrease in the fraction. Above 0.10 the logarithm, when multiplied by
the corresponding fraction, results in proportionally increased reductions
in the value of the fraction the closer to 1 that number is. For one,
the product, of course, is zero. Below 0.10 the weighting scheme increases
the value assigned to each element. Using this approach, distributions that
are widely dispersed will produce a higher index number or entropy value
than distributions in which one or two of the values are very large and the
rest are relatively small.
Formally this is given by:
n
H(Pl, P2, .... Pn) = - J^ Pklogpk
where the entropy [H(p,)] of the distribution p.,...,p is calculated by
tc j_ n
summing the product of each value p, by its respective logarithm (log p, ).
Assuming that interindustry output dispersion is the major focus,
the entropy value of each sector row (output distribution) for the inverse
(matrix of direct and indirect requirements) is given by:
53
-------
n
E1- L
where E is the entropy value for the output of each industry and
f*K t~li
x.. is the coefficient value for the i row, j column of the inverse.
The input-output framework is used in conjunction with entropy
measurement to establish dispersion indices for comparing various sectors
of the economy.
The coefficient that was used in the calculations for the overall
index to rank products, based on the "entropy" concept, was calculated for
the 1967 national input-output table. The results of this calculation for
all sectors are presented in Table 7. An alternative approach to calculating
the dispersion index is presented in Appendix D for the interested reader.
The alternative has a great deal of intuitive appeal but there was
insufficient time and resources to develop it sufficiently to use results
from it.
Dispersion to Final Demand
In the calculation of the dispersion coefficient, the extent to
which products are actually consumed by final users is an important
factor. The input-output approach does not address directly the extent
to which the user is exposed. However, if we assume that the user is
exposed in proportion to the dollar value of the goods that he consumes,
final demand by sector can be used as a proxy variable for exposure
directly to the consumer. The alternative approach to calculating exposure
embodies this factor in one element of the index; however, the development
of an index of exposure of consumers to products deserves greater emphasis
than was possible in this methodology development study.
There are a variety of ways in which the individual might be
exposed to potential pollutants. In addition, there are a variety of ways
in which products or their constituents might eventually result in exposure
of humans. For example, burning of wastes might result in undue general
exposure. Hazards may result from use of products in combination with other
54
-------
TABLE 7. INDEX OF OUTPUT DISPERSION BY SECTOR
Industry1 ,
Number U'
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Related ...
SIC Codes'" ;
0132-0193
0112-0192
074-091
071-098
1011-106
102-109
11,12
1311,1321
141-149
147
Part 15-17,
6561
Part 138-17
1925-1999
20
21
2211-2283
2291-2299
2251-238
2391-2399
2411-2499
244
251
2521-2599
264
265
Industry Title
Livestock and Livestock 'Products
Other Agricultural Products
Forestry and Fishery Products
Agricultural, Forestry, Fishery
Services
Iron and Ferroalloy Ores Mining
Nonferrous Metal Ores Mining
Coal Mining
Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas
Stone and Clay Mining and Quarrying
Chemical and Fertilizer Mineral
Mining
New Construction
Maintenance and Repair Construction
Ordnance and Accessories
Food and Kindred Products
Tobacco Manufactures
Broad and Narrow Fabrics, Yarn
and Thread Mills
Miscellaneous Textile Goods and
Floor Coverings
Apparel
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile
Products
Lumber and Wood Products, except
Containers
Wooden Containers
Household Furniture
Other Furniture and Fixtures
Paper and Allied Products, except
Containers
Paperboard Containers and Boxes
Output
Dispersion
1.90
2.83
0.49
0.55
0.46
0.75
1.13
0.81
1.02
0.58
0.00
4.21
0.78
2.51
0.44
2.46
1.91
1.22
0.90
3.04
0.45
0.62
0.40
3.58
3.11
55
-------
TABLE 7, (Continued)
Industry. ..
Number1 '
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
46
49
Related ,,.
SIC Codes ( '
27
281-289
2821-2824
283-2844
2851
29
30
3111-3121
3131-3199
3211-3221
3241-3299
331-3399
3331-3392
3411-3491
3431-3449
345-3461
3421-3499
3511-3519
3522
3531-3533
3534-3537
3541-3548
3551-3559
3561-3569
Output
Industry Title Dispersion
Printing and Publishing
Chemicals and Selected Chemical
Products
Plastics and Synthetic Materials
Drugs, Cleaning, and Toilet
Preparations
Paints and Allied Products
Petroleum Refining and Related
Industries
Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastics
Products
Leather Tanning and Industrial
Leather Products
Footwear and Other Leather Products
Glass and Glass Products
Stone and Clay Products
Primary Iron and Steel Manufacturing
Primary Nonferrous Metal Manu-
facturing
Metal Containers
Heating, Plumbing, and Structural
Metal Products
Stampings, Screw Machine Products
and Bolts
Other Fabricated Metal Products
Engines and Turbines
Farm Machinery and Equipment
Construction, Mining, and Oil Field
Machinery
Materials Handling Machinery and
Equipment
Metalworking Machinery and Equipment
Special Industry Machinery and
Equipment
General Industrial Machinery and
Equipment
2.18
5.72
2.69
1.38
1.58
3.86
5.44
0.78
0.41
1.52
2.90
8.59
6.20
0.92
1.92
3.90
5.12
1.59
0.71
1.70
0.77
2.90
0.94
2.99
56
-------
TABLE 7. (Continued)
Industry. ,
Number^ '
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
Related .
SIC Codes*' '
359
3573-3579
3581-3589
3611-3629
3631-3639
3641-3644
3651-3662
3671-3679
3691-3699
3713-3715
3721-3729
3731-3799
3811-387
3831-3861
391-3999
40-47
48
483
491-497
50-59, 7396
60-64
65-66
70-724
73-89
Output
Industry Title Dispersion
Machine Shop Products
Office, Computing, and Accounting
Machines
Service Industry Machines
Electric Industrial Equipment and
Apparatus
Household Appliances
Electric Lighting and Wiring
Equipment
Radio, Television, and Conmunica-
tion Equipment
Electronic Components and Accessories
Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery,
Equipment, and Supplies
Motor Vehicles and Equipment
Aircraft and Parts
Other Transportation Equipment
Scientific and Controlling Instruments
Optical, Opthalmic, and Photographic
Equipment
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Transportation and Warehousing
Communications, except Radio and
TV Broadcasting
Radio and TV Broadcasting
Electric, Gas, Water, and Sanitary
Services
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental
Hotels, Personal and Repair
Services' except Auto
Business Services
2.32
0.67
1.07
3.29
0.84
1.50
1.73
2.14
1.22
2.34
1.59
0.80
1.69
1.18
1.85
8.32
3.48
0.42
6.20
12.08
4.62
9.92
1.52
11.34
57
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TABLE 7. (Continued)
Indus try 1 .
Number1 L>
75
76
77
78
79
80A
SOB
81
82
Related f?.
SIC Codes'' ;
75
78,79
801-8921
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
Industry Title
Automobile Repair and Services
Amusements
Medical, Educational Services, and
Nonprofit Organizations
Federal Government Enterprises
State and Local Government
Enterprises
Directly Allocated Imports
Transferred Imports
Business Travel, Entertainment,
and Gifts
Office Supplies
Output
Dispersion
1.88
0.90
1.07
1.56
0.95
1.42
7.98
4.87
0.96
(1) The following industry numbers were assigned to sectors in the 1967
Input-Output tables of the Survey of Current Business. j>4 (2),
(February, 1974).
(2) Survey of Current Business provides bridge table converting Input-
Output sector numbers to SIC codes. The SIC codes employed in this
table are from the 1967 edition of the codification manual.
(3) SIC codes for these sectors were not available.
58
-------
products, or the individual might be systematically exposed to
hazardous materials in other routine activities (such as the use of
deodorants or in use of the automobile).
The dispersion coefficient is only a very simplified approach
to summarizing the possible exposure that might result in the use of
goods and services. A more detailed index that incorporates information
on exposure in use of a product, exposure in consumption, and exposure
in disposal of residues could be developed but is beyond the scope of this
methodology development.
Technical Change
Sectors of the economy that have undergone rapid and extensive
technological change in the past are the sectors that have caused or
resulted in a large number of the pollutants that we are having to cope
with now. The recent emphasis on the technique of technology assessment
is an indicator of the potential for unwanted or unexpected results that
can occur if all the ramifications of new technology are not explored.
Because technology appears as a possible indicator of future problems,
a factor that indicates the rate of technological change for a sector of
the economy was developed.
Technical change is likely to cause unanticipated repercussions
because a new technology requires a new and different mix of input products
to produce a unit of output for a given sector. Therefore, identification
of the sectors of the economy that are likely to experience rapid
technological change would be one way to identify industries that should
be examined for possible future pollution problems.
Data Base
To measure technological change requires that one identify
sectors in which new technologies will be applied in producing the output
of the sector. The impetus for such change stems from several factors,
including the necessity for new technology because of resource depletion.
59
-------
In addition, the process for producing resources might become more costly,
increasing the cost of the resource. If that were the case, alternative
technologies for production would be warranted if the result were
production at a per unit cost, that is, low enough to justify the capital
cost of the technology. Chief among the inputs that were becoming more
expensive in the past was manpower. The trend in technological change was
away from labor powered or operated technologies toward more capital
intensive, automatic equipment type technologies. With the new emerging
shortages of raw material inputs and energy constraints to production, the
shift will be towards technologies that economize on these inputs. As that
occurs, new and different pollution problems are likely to emerge.
Another factor that complicates the analysis of technological
change is the necessity for knowing when a new technology is actually in
place. Is it in place when the first plant uses it? Is it in place when
50 percent of all production for a given industry is produced by it? Or is
it in place only when 95 percent of all production of a given sector is
using the new technology? Developing a uniform method of measuring technical
change for comparing it with other sectors of the economy is very difficult.
Because of the difficulties in measuring and comparing techno-
logical change amont sectors, a proxy variable was used that is based on
changes in the input requirements for an industry. Using this variable,
it was possible to compare the structure of a given sector of the economy
with the structure of the same sector at a different time period.
Industries with high rates of change among input requirements were ranked
high and sectors with little change in the input requirements were ranked
low in terms of structural change.
An industry may have significant technological change but show
little or no change in the input requirements. This possibility does not
weaken this analysis because we are looking for industries that might be
using more or different types of inputs from the mix that they had been
using. The important question is whether or not the input mix has changed,
not so much whether technological change has taken place or not.
60
-------
The concept of structural change is not a new one although the
measurement of the change has traditionally been done using a different
approach from that applied here. In this analysis the two input-output
tables for the years 1970 and 1985 are compared. Each sector is analyzed
to determine an index of the change in the coefficients expected over that
time period. Industries that are expected to have a high rate of
technological (structural) change over that time period are presented in
Table 8. The higher the index, the greater the expected structural change.
The complete listing of sectors and their indices is presented in Appendix E.
Technical Change Index
The indices that were developed to indicate technological change
use the coefficients for a column, representing a given sector, and compare
them for the years 1970 and 1985. The direct technical coefficients are
compared. They represent the percentage a given input is of the total
inputs required to produce a unit of output for the subject sector. If,
for example, the input requirements of petroleum products in the production
of steel were to change from a large to a small percentage, one would infer
a structural change for that industry. Those sectors that have many such
changes would have more of a structural change than those industries that
had few input requirement changes.*
Included in the input vector is a value added component. This
provides a measure of the requirements for labor inputs to production.**
Thus, industries with a high value added generally will have a high labor
input requirement. In addition, capital cost components are included in
this figure and thus, high value added might also imply changes in the
capital requirements of an industry. In either case, stable value added
would generally imply less technical change than rapidly changing value
added.
* The vector of inputs is a vector of the value of inputs. Therefore,
pace changes over the subject period may influence the change in the
entries in the vector. However, for this analysis it was not possible
to make price adjustments, introducing some inaccuracy in the ranking
according to this index.
**Value added includes wages, profits, and taxes, most of which is payment
to labor, although this will vary from sector to sector.
61
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TABLE 8. TOP 25 SECTORS BY
STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF PRODUCT
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Sector
Number
21.03
1.03
14.01
5.02
6.04
1.04
4.01
14.03
2.05
5.08
10.01
19.02
10.04
4.02
11.05
3.07
4.03
11.02
3.05
17.02
8.04
2.01
3.06
17.03
12.05
Sector Name
Hotels and Lodging Places
Forestry and Fishery Products
Scientific Instruments, etc.
Paving Mix and Asphalt Products
Other Nonmetal Mineral Products
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery Services
Sawmills and Planing Mills
Watches, Clocks, and Parts
Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas
Organic Man-made Fibers
Farm Machinery
New Construction, Nonresidential Buildings
Oil Field Machinery
Veneer and Plywood
Cycles, Trailers, etc.
Tire Cord and Miscellaneous Textile Goods
Lumber and Wood Products except Containers
Aircraft and Parts
Fabrics, Yarns, and Threads
Local and Highway Passenger Transport
Nonelectric Heating Equipment
Iron and Ferroalloys Ores
Soft Floor Coverings
Motor Freight and Warehouse
Light Fixtures and Wiring Devices
Index
.013158
.012560
.012093
.011441
.010575
.010354
.010340
.010322
.010227
.010021
.009752
.009741
.008979
.008928
.008605
.007989
.007825
.007528
.007304
.007280
.007272
.006959
.006704
.006702
.006356
Source: Battelle estimates.
62
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The approach that was used in the development of the index for
the calculation of the rank of products was to estimate the difference
between the percentage that each input constitutes for the subject years,
square, sum, and divide by the number of observations (128) and take the
square root. The formula is as follows:
Vo
i ^ij " tij') > "here n = 128, i = 1,2,3, ... 127 sectors
n
I. = structural change index for the j sector.
t..= technical coefficient for the i input sector (1970)
t.'.= technical coefficient for the i input sector (1985)
An Alternative Index
Although the approach to calculate I. has a great deal of
intuitive appeal, it was felt that an alternative approach would provide
a check or test of the validity of 1.. Unfortunately, the results do not
strongly support the selected index, suggesting that more resources should
be devoted to improving this index.
In this approach, a column of percentages of inputs required for
a sector for a given time period is compared directly with a similar
column for a subsequent time period by calculating a correlation coefficient
between the two columns. The Kendall Rank-Order Correlation Coefficient
was used to compare input vectors for each sector for the years 1970 and
1985. The Kendall coefficient produces "standardized coefficients based on
(33)
the amount of agreement between two sets of ordinal rankings". In this
respect it may represent a method superior to I. for comparing the columns
because no correction is made for growth in input requirements necessary to
produce additional output. The results of the calculation of the Kendall
coefficient are presented in Appendix E and the top 25 sectors experiencing
structural change over the time period are listed in Table 9. The higher
the correlation coefficient between the two vectors, the less structural
change is assumed to be taking place.
63
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TABLE 9. TOP 25 SECTORS CALCULATED
USING THE KENDALL COEFFICIENT
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Sector
Number
14.02
21.04
2.01
11.05
4.01
4.03
19.01
12.06
5.02
17.01
18.03
11.02
8.04
11.03
17.04
14.03
11.04
3.07
10.04
6.04
12.01
17.03
12.03
4.06
6.02
Kendall
Sector Name Coefficient
Medical, Surgical, and Dental Instruments
Personal and Repair Services except Cars
Iron and Ferroalloys Ores
Cycles, Trailers, etc.
Sawmills and Planing Mills
Lumber and Wood Products except Containers
New Construction, Nonfann Residential
Electronic Components and Accessories
Paving Mix and Asphalt Products
Railroads and Related Services
Gas
Aircraft and Parts
Nonelectric Heating Equipment
Ship and Boat Building and Repairs
Water Transportation
Watches, Clocks, and Parts
Locomotives and Rail and Streetcars
Tire Cord and Miscellaneous Textile Goods
Oil Field Machinery
Other Nonmetal Mineral Products
Electrical Measuring Instruments
Motor Freight and Warehouse
Industrial Controls, etc.
Other Furniture and Fixtures
Cement and Line and Gypsum Products
.8912
.9223
.9262
.9267
.9277
.9285
.9286
.9320
.9344
.9354
.9354
.9403
.9405
.9409
.9425
.9442
.9443
.9448
.9453
.9461
.9466
.9474
.9510
.9514
.9541
Source: BatteLle calculations.
64
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Comparing this List of the top 25 with the list generated for
I indicates that there is not complete agreement between the two approaches
regarding the sectors with the highest rates of structural change. This
difference is explained, in part, by the differences in the method of
calculation as explained. Nevertheless, almost half of the sectors are
repeated under both approaches.
Value of Shipments of Products
The product that is distributed in larger quantities, especially
if it is toxic to any degree, is more likely to be of concern than a
product that is distributed in smaller quantities. Products shipped in
small quantities may contain highly toxic substances, but they are less
threatening than products that are also highly toxic but are shipped in
large quantities. Quantity data are difficult to obtain uniformly over
all products; therefore, value of shipments data were used as a substitute.*
Value of shipments data are used to rank products according to their
importance.
Data for value of shipments were derived from the Census of
Manufactures, Table 3 in the 1972 Preliminary Report, and Table 6A in the
1963 and 1967 Final Reports. The Census collected information on both
quantity and value of shipments of products; however, if there were no
meaningful physical quantity measures reported, only value of shipments
was collected.
As a result, some industries in Major Group 28 reported no
measures of quantity at all, while some industries reported quantity for
some products and not for others. Measures of quantity were not reported
either because (1) figures were not applicable, (2) figures were not
available, or (3) figures were withheld "because the estimate did not meet
publication standards, either on the basis of the associated standard
error of the estimate or on the basis of a consistency review". For this
reason, value of shipments was used to indicate the volume of a product.
The weakness of this approach, that value may be uncorrelated with volume,
is recognized and is reflected in the lower weight attached to the value
variable.
* Price adjustments have not been made in the value of shipments data.
65
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Other Parameters Considered
In the initial stages of the development of the ranking procedure,
and as indicated in the second methodology (see Figure 4), the toxicological
potential for various products was judged to be an important variable that
»
would help establish the potential for future pollution problems. The
results of the efforts to rank SIC's according to their potential toxicity
are summarized in Table 2 and provide the basis for the selection of the
group of SIC's, the 2800's, for more detailed consideration. However, the
general conclusion was that it is very difficult to rank products according
to their potential toxicity before they have been tested because the product
is usually composed of a large number of individual chemicals in varying
amounts, each of which has a differing toxicity rating.
Identification of the chemical make-up is not an impossible task
but is is a task that would require a great deal of effort. Because this
task would require a large amount of resources to complete for all products,
it is suggested that this be begun only after a higher priority listing of
chemicals based on other criteria be developed.
A consequence of this finding is that it would be very costly to
attempt to begin the screening of products with a preliminary screening
based on toxicity. Because of this, it is suggested that the preliminary
screening of products be done on the basis of a refined economic model and
that subsequent, more detailed investigation include the toxicity screening.
66^
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SECTION VI
PRODUCT RANKING
Product Ranking Results
In the initial phases of this study, the alternative approaches
that have been taken by agencies and institutions in the development of
methodologies were reviewed. The economic-based approach was adopted
because it provided the opportunity for futuristic, comprehensive, and
systematic approaches that appeared lacking in the other approaches that
were reviewed. However, it was found infeasible to perform detailed
toxicological screening on a variety of products at an early stage of
the screening process because the variety of chemicals in a given product
were found to be very high* The initial, detailed screening was performed
on the basis of economic criteria including
Growth
Technical change
Dispersion
Value of product.
This approach involved using data that relate to products produced and
exchanged to identify those products that are potential candidates for
being associated with future toxic substance pollution problems.
Program Output
The main effort in this study was in the development of the
economic screening portion of the methodology. The results of the applica-
tion of the methodology to the products in Chemicals and Allied Products
(SIC 28) are presented in Appendix F, The products are ranked according
to their composite score composed of the selective parameters. Table 10
presents the top 50 products from the ranking.
67
-------
Examining the details of the ranking from Appendix F, it is possible
possible to identify what factors lead to the high ranking of various
products.* In Appendix F - The Composite Product Ranking is presented.
Both the weighted and unweighted indices for historical growth, future
growth, dispersion, technical change and value of shipments are presented
in the listing. Next, examples of items from Table 10 are discussed,
including the rationale for their relative ranking.
(1) Staple, Tov?, and Salable Waste (Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic)
28241 33
This product category scored very high in both future
growth and in technical change parameters. It was fairly
high in historical growth also. Compared to other pro-
ducts in this composite ranking, dispersion is not very
high and the value of product is relatively low.
(2) Miscellaneous Acyclic Chemicals and Chemical Products
(excluding Urea) (Industrial Inorganic Chemicals) 28692 13
This product category scored very high because both dis-
persion and value parameters were ranked high. In addi-
tion, the historical growth parameter was relatively high.
The very high value of this product category and the large
number of potential products in such a general category
suggest that this category warrants additional attention.
* Appendix F does not include product names but Appendix G contains a
complete cross reference between product code and product name.
68
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TABLE 10. TOP 50 PRODUCTS RANKED ACCORDING TO
POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE TOXIC SUBSTANCE POLLUTION
PROBLEMS, USING CRITERIA DEVELOPED IN THIS STUDY
Rank
Product Code
Product Name
(1)
(2)
(3)
(5)
(6)
(7)
C8>
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
(15)
(16)
(17)
28241 33
28692 13
28992 99
28219 13
28242 51
28241 15
28794 71
28792 35
28242 31
28914 99
28995 13
28914 11
28995 39
28995 91
28242 71
28995 12
28995 41
Staple, Tow, and Salable Wastes (Organic
Fibers, Noncellulosic)
Miscellaneous Acyclic Chemicals and Chemi-
cal Products (excluding urea) (Industrial
Inorganic Chemicals)
Fatty Acids, n.s.k. (Chemical Preparations,
N.E.C.)
Polyethylene Monofilaments (Plastics
Materials and Resins)
Polyester Filament Yarn and Textile Mono-
filaments, Staple, and Tow (Organic
Fibers, Noncellulosic)
Filament Yarn and Textile Monofilaments
(Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic)
Rodenticides - Fmnigants other than Soil
Fumigants, including space (Agricultural
Chemicals, N.E.C.)
Other Weed Killers (hydrocarbon, etc.)
including Defoliants (except sodium
chloride preparations), Desiccants
(including arsenic acid), Algaecides,
Carbamates (including CIPC, EPIC, CDAA,
etc.) (Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C.)
Acrylic and Modacrylic Filament Yarn and
Textile Monofilaments, Staple, and Tow
(Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic)
Synthetic Resins and Rubber Adhesives,
n.s.k. (Adhesives and Sealants)
Other Essential Oils, Unblended (natural)
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Epoxy Adhesives, Phenolics, and Derivatives
Adhesives (Adhesives and Sealants)
Concrete Curing and Floor Hardening Materials
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Plating Compounds (Chemical Preparations,
N.E.C.)
Filament Yarn and Textile Monofilaments of
other Man-made Fibers (except glass)
including Saran, Spandex, Anidex (extruded
and split), Vinyon, Fluorocarbon, etc.
(Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic)
Essential Oils, Unblended (natural) (lemon)
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Drilling Mud Materials, Mud Thinners,
Thickeners, and Purifiers (Chemical
Preparations, N.E.C.)
69
-------
IABLE 10. (Continued)
Rank
Product Code
Product Name
(W)
(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)
(24)
(25)
(26)
(27)
(28)
(29)
(30)
(31)
(32)
28791 49
28995 77
28995 93
28995 81
28995 95
28995 63
28992 92
28995 35
28791 43
28914 83
28995 11
28995 29
28793 71
28995 19
28995 15
Other Agricultural Insecticidal Prepara-
tions and/or Concentrates including
Petroleum Oil Sprays and Emulsions with-
out other Toxicants, excluding Botanicals
(Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C.)
Water-treating Compounds: Boiler Compounds,
Other Vlater Softening Compounds
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Lighter Fluids (cigarettes, charcoal, etc.)
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Waterproofing Compounds (electrical, lea-
ther, masonry, textile, etc.) (Chemical
Preparations, N.E.C.)
Waxes (animal, vegetable, mineral, including
blends) excluding pure petroleum waxes.
Other Industrial Chemical Specialties,
including fluxes and plastic wood prepara-
tions (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Sizes: Rosin Sizes, Other including dextrin
sizes (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Tall Oil Fatty Acids: Tall Oil Fatty Acids
'containing less than 2% rosin acids and
more than 957. fatty acids. Tall Oil
Fatty Acids containing 2% rosin acids or
more (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Automotive Chemicals: Antifreeze Prepara-
tions, Other Automotive Chemicals
(including battery acid, deicing fluid,
carbon-removing solvents, etc.)
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Organic Phosphate-containing Preparations -
Preparations containing parathion as the
active ingredient, or methyl parathion
as the active ingredient, or other organic
phosphates as the active ingredient
(Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C.)
Rubber Cement for sale as such (solvent
type) (Adhesives and Sealants)
Essential Oils, Unblended (natural)
(orange) (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Fireworks and Pyrotechnics (including
flares, jet fuel igniters, railroad tor-
pedoes, toy pistol caps, etc.) (Chemical
Preparations, N.E.C.)
Soil Fumigants (Agricultural Chemicals,
N.E.C.)
Other Natural Essential Oils (Chemical
Preparations, N.E.C.)
Peppermint Oils (Chemical Preparations,
N.E.C.)
70
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TABLE 10. (Continued)
Rank
Product Code
Produce Name
(33)
(34)
(35)
(36)
(37)
(38)
(39)
(40)
(41)
(42)
(43)
(44)
(45)
(46)
(47)
28995 49
28932 31
28992 11
28992 23
28995 61
28995 72
28995 99
28991 11
28995 87
28995 59
28992 61
28913 78
28794 15
28913 55
28992 83
Foundry Supplies, Chemical (including
binders, core oils, core wash, ecc.)
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
News Inks, Publication Inks (Printing Ink)
Saturated Acids: Stearic Acid (40-50%
stearic content) (Chemical Prepara-
tions, N.E.C.)
Hydrogenated Animal and Vegetable Acids:
Hydrogenated Fatty Acids having a maxi-
mum titer of 60 and minimum I.V. of 5.
Hydrogenated Fatty Acids having minimum
titer of 57 C and maximum I.V. under 5.
High Palmitic (over 60 palmitic, I.V.
maximum of 12). Hydrogenated Fish and
Marine Mammal Fatty Acids (Chemical
Preparations, N.E.C.)
Oil-treating Compounds
(non-oil base)
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Inks (writing and stamp pad inks, including
indelible ink and marking fluid, but
excluding drawing inks) (Chemical Prepa-
rations, N.E.C.)
Essential Oils, Fireworks and Pyrotechnics,
Sizes, and Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.,
n.s.k. (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Evaporated Salt (bulk, pressed blocks, and
packaged) (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Vitreous Enamel (frit) (Chemical Prepara-
tions, N.E.C.)
Metal-treating Compounds (non-oil base) for
nitriding, pickling, drawing, and cutting)
(Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
Unsaturated Acids: Oleic Acid, including
white oleic and red oil (Chemical
Preparations, N.E.C.)
Bituminous Adhesives, Asphaltic and Coal
Tar, other natural base glue and adhesives
made from natural gums, shellac, silicates,
lacquers, oleoresinous varnishes, etc.,
except rubber (Adhesives and Sealants)
Nonaerosol Insecticides for flying insects,
excluding fumigants (Agricultural
Chemicals, N.E.C.)
Vegetable Adhesive Starches (Adhesives and
Sealants)
Other Unsaturated Fatty Acids, including
animal fatty acids other than oleic
(I.V. 36 to 80), vegetable or marine
(I.V. maximum 115), and other unsaturated
fatty acids (I.V. 116 and over) (Chemical
Preparations, N.E.C.)
71
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TABLE 10. (Continued)
Rank Product Code Product Name
(48) 28994 31 Pharmaceutical Grade (except unfilled
capsules) (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
(49) 28793 98 Other Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C. such
as disinfectants, animal dips, and soil
conditioners (Agricultural Chemicals,
N.E.C.)
(50) 28793 67 Copper-containing Dry Preparations,
including dry Bordeaux mixtures but
excluding Paris Green and copper sulfate
(Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C.)
Source: Battelle ranking program.
72
-------
(3) Fatty Acids, n.s.k. (Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.)
28992 99
This product category scored very high in dispersion.
The dispersion score and moderate scores in historical
and future growth and in technical change placed this
item high on the list.
(4) Polyethylene Monofilaments (Plastics Materials and
Resins) 28219 13
This product scored very high in historical growth.
Combined with moderately high scores in all other
parameters except value, the overall ranking is high.
(5) Polyester Filament Yarn and Textile Monofilaments,
Staple, and Tow (Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic) 28242 51
High ranking in future growth and in technical change
combined to rank this product and Filament Yarn and
Textile Monofilaments (Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic)
high.
(6) Filament Yarn and Textile Monofilaments, (Organic
Fibers, Noncellulosic)
Very high ranking in historical growth.
(7) Rodenticides - Fumigants other than Soil Fumigants.
including Space (Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C.) 28794 71
Very high dispersion combined with moderately high scores
in other categories services to place Rodenticides high
on the list.
73
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Distribution of Products by 4-Digit SIC
Fourteen 4-digit SIC1s are represented in the top 100 products
ranked by the composite index. Table 11 shows the distribution of the 100
products over the subject 4-digit SIC's or industries. The interesting
factor is that 81 of the 100 products are collected in 5 SIC's. Industrial
Organic Chemicals, N.E.C. (SIC 2869) contains 7 of the top 100 products,
Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C. (SIC 2879) contains 22, Adhesives and Seal-
ants (SIC 2891) contains 12, Printing Ink (SIC 2893) contains 8, and Chemi-
cal Preparations, N.E.C. (SIC 2899) contains 32 of the top 100 products.
This distribution suggests that within Chemicals and Allied Products (2800's),
'these industries represent those with the greatest potential for future
toxic substance pollution problems based on the parameters that were used
to prepare the composite ranking. It should be recognized, however, that
these results are presented primarily as examples of the way the procedure
would operate. Confidence in the results would be improved through further
work on parameters and better data.
The full application of the methodology to all products would
indicate what industries are likely to require more attention as possible
sources of future pollution problems. Three of the categories, Industrial
Organic Chemicals, Agricultural Chemicals, and Chemical Preparations are
"residual" categories in the Census of Manufactures, An examination of
products in these categories shows a wide variety of products that do not
fit in other areas. It is, however, in these categories, that many pollu-
tion problems have arisen in the past and are likely to do so in the future.
74
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TABLE 11. DISTRIBUTION OF PRODUCTS
BY 4-DIGIT SIC
4-Digit SIC
2813
2816
2819
2821
2824
2861
2865
2869
2874
2879
2891
2893
2895
2899
Name
Industrial Gases
Inorganic Pigments
Industrial Inorganic Chemicals, N.E.C.
Plastics Materials and Resins
Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic
Gum and Wood Chemicals
Cyclic Crudes and Intermediates
Industrial Organic Chemicals, N.E.C.
Phosphatic Fertilizers
Agricultural Chemicals, N.E.C.
Adhesives and Sealants
Printing Ink
Carbon Black
Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.
Number of
Products
4
1
2
1
5
1
3
7
1
22
12
8
1
32
Source: Battelle ranking program.
75
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Constructing the Chemical Composition Matrix
After having identified the most likely candidate products, it
is necessary to convert them to the chemical constituents. This involves
preparation of a matrix as shown in Figure 7. For each product that is
listed as a candidate, it is necessary to list the chemical components of
which the product is composed. These chemicals can be compared with other
high ranked product chemical components to determine whether or not there
are cumulative effects over a number of product lines.
The difficulty in completing this phase is that the identifica-
tion of data for the subject product may be difficult and may require
reference to a specialist in the field that produces the product.
To assess the difficulty of collecting this type of information,
products in the SIC 2844, Toilet Preparations, were listed and an attempt
was made to identify all the chemical components of the subject products.
Table 12 shows the number of chemical constituents of one 4-digit
SIC, 2844, Toilet Preparations. For a given product category, there are a
large number of possible chemicals that are used in the product in question,
and it is possible that additional chemicals may be used from manufacturer
to manufacturer. For example, for the product category, Bleaches, Rinses,
Dyes, and Tints, there are 30 chemicals used in producing these products,
and depending on the manufacturer and type of product specifically, it is
possible that another 68 chemicals would be used.*
Construction of this matrix is expensive but is not infeasible.
The resources and time for this project did not permit the development
of the matrix for the top ranked products, and the detail that might be
required to describe a given product may be quite high. Table 13 in-
dicates the names of the constituents of one of the products in the
SIC 2844.
After the list of products has been developed a toxicologist
should be employed to identify those products and components that represent
the greatest potential fdr harm to the user.
* Detailed chemical constituents are available from a variety of sources.
Refer to bibliography items (1), (2), (3), (18), (19), (20), and (24)
for those used for SIC 2844.
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TABLE 12. PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS IN
SIC 2844 (TOILET PREPARATIONS)
SIC Number
28441-33
28441-37
28441-41
28441-56
28441-59
28442-11
28443-13
28443-21
28443-36
28443-39
28443-41
28443-51
28443-63
28444- 11&31
28444-51
28444- 73
28444-75
28444-98
28445-11
Name
Shaving Soap & Cream
(Tubes & Jars)
Shaving Soap & Cream
(Aerosols)
Shaving Soap & Cream (Stick,
Powder or Cake)
Aftershave Preparations
Other Aftershave Preparations
Perfume Oil Mixtures & Blends
Soap Shampoos
Hair Tonics (Including Hair
& Scalp Conditioners)
Home Pennanents
Commercial Pennanents
Hair Dressings
Bleaches, Rinses, Dyes
& Tints
Hair Spray
Toothpaste & Toothpowder
Denture Cleaners
Mouthwashes & Rinses
Breath Fresheners
Other Oral Hygiene Products
Cleansing Creams
No. of
Chemicals
17
4
4
4
2
2
17
28
6
12
5
30
22
14
6
8
6
9
6
No. of Other
Possible
Chemicals
4
121
13
8
10
10
31
68
40
21
8
15
77
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TABLE 12. (Continued)
SIC Number
28445-12
28445-13
28445-14
28445-15
28445-16
28445-17
28445-18
28445-21
28445-22
28445-23
28445-27
28445-29
28445-31
28445-33
28445-39
28445-43&4S
28445-48
28445-61
28445-98
Name
Foundation Creams
Hormone Creams
Other Creams
Sun tan Oils
Cleansing Lotions
Baby Oils
Hand Lotions
Lip Preparations
Blushers
Eye Preparations
Aerosol Underarm Deodorants
Feminine Hygiene Deodorants
Nail Lacquers & Enamels
Nail Lacquer Removers
Other Manicuring Preparations
Face Powder (Liquid & Compact)
Other Powders
Bath Salts, Oils & Bubble Bath
Other Cosmetics & Toilet
Preparations
No. of
Chemicals
3
19
19
11
5
9
5
51
6
34
45
11
21
18
6
9
24
29
17
No. of Other
Possible
Chemicals
16
19
10
20
11
7
7
7
16
13
19
7
6
23
21
16
11
Source: References (1), (2), (3), (18), (19), (20), and (24) in
bibliography.
78
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TABLE 13. CHEMICAL CONSTITUENTS OF HOME PERiMANENTS
PRODUCT CODE 28443-36
Chemicals
Other Possible Chemicals
Ammonia
Thioglycolic Acid
Monolthanol Amine
Deisopropanol Amine
Urea
Ammonium Thioglycolate
Borax
Sodium Perborate
Hydrogen Peroxide
Thioglycerol and Derivatives
Polystyrene Latex
Dimethyl Polysiloxane
Acrylic Acid Copolymer
Sodium Lauryl Sulfate
Sulfated Cetyl Alcohol
Source: Battelle estimates.
79
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Limitations of the Results
Application to Other Pollutant
Categories
The approach is useful in identifying products of concern as
candidates for future toxic substance problems. In applying the approach
for all future pollution problems, it would be necessary to perform the
preliminary screening to identify those SIC's that represent good candi-
dates for generation of pollutants of other types. The screening that
was done to identify the 2800's as the set of 4-digit SIC's for considera-
tion would have to be done with other pollutants providing the basis for
ranking.
Application to Toxic Substance
Pollutants
There are other problems that would have to be addressed before
the approach were applied comprehensively. It would be useful to calculate
the mean (and perhaps other statistical measures) of the normalized data
for each of the parameters so that an evaluation of the score could be made.
In the case of the historical growth, the normalized numbers are not evenly
distributed about the mean. This is due partly to the characteristics of
the data and the method of normalizing. A normal distribution about a mean
should not be expected for input data distributions and, thus, should not
be expected in the normalized index unless special effort is devoted to
insuring that numbers be distributed to produce a mean and standard devia-
tion that approximates a normal distribution.
Some of the unevenness in the normalized numbers can be accom-
modated by designing the model for calculating the normalized numbers to
drop (or treat in a special way) numbers that fall at the extremes of the
range. For example, all numbers that fall above two standard deviations
above the mean of the data in the vector might be assigned a number of
1.0, arbitrarily. Similarly those numbers in the distribution that fall
two standard deviations below the mean might be assigned a value of 0,0.
80
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Thus, the bulk of the data will be assigned more appropriate normalized
values, not skewed by data at the extremes of the data set.
Another limitation derives from the characteristics of the
data that are used in the calculation of the value index,, These data
are available either in dollar value of shipments or in the physical
quantity of the shipments. The problem is that the dollar value of the
shipments does not reflect the relative volume of materials that are
exchanged. Also, the quantity of shipments data are presented in differ-
ing units (Ibs., gals., tons, cubic ft., etc.) and as a result are not
comparable.
There is probably no simple solution to the quantity problem.
In particular, it would be very expensive to attempt to convert all
quantity to common units. If this were done, and all products were
expressed in tons, conversion factors would have to be identified and
applied to all products not expressed in tons. Another choice is to
utilize the dollar value of shipments as a proxy for the physical quantity
of a product. Use of this variable is based on the weak assumption that
quantity and value correlate well, but for very high quantity products it
provides a measure of the relative volume and economic importance of the
product that is exchanged in the marketplace.
Credibility of the Ranking
The utility and believability of the results of the ranking
depends on the credibility of the weights that are established based on
judgment. Because of this, objections may be raised regarding the appro-
priateness of the numbers that are used. To improve these numbers, the
group that establishes the weights may be constituted of a sample of know-
ledgeable persons in the field of potential future pollution problems
drawn from a wider base than the group that was used to rank the subject
parameters. Second, the use of the parameters in the ranking of products
suggests that maintaining high weights for both historical growth and for
future growth may result in over-emphasis on the growth of the product as
a factor in determining the importance of the product. Thus, weights
81
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for one or both of these factors may be reduced. Third, the sensitivity
of the ranking should be tested for changes in the weights of the ranking
parameters. Finally, there is a feedback to the credibility of the weights
that derives from the adequacy of the input data. If the input data do not
skew the distribution of the normalized indices then the combination of the
factors in the composite index is more acceptable because items in a given
percentile will compare more readily with items in a similar percentile for
another parameter.
With regard to input data, the quality of the data may vary from
parameter to parameter. Because of this, the weights that are assigned
may be partially conditioned on the quality of the data. Even for a given
parameter, the quality of the data from product to product may vary signif-
icantly. Because of this, one suggestion to improve the credibility of the
weighting is to assign explicit weights to reflect the quality of the under-
lying data. For example, for data on the value of shipments from the Census,
the completeness of the data varies from product to product. Depending on
the dates for which the data are complete, a different modifier might be
assigned to the weight that is attached to the parameter. For data that
are very current and complete, the assigned weight might take on its full
value but for data that are available only for a limited time period, and
perhaps not current, the assigned weight might take on a lower value. This
suggested modification to the weighting scheme could be applied to all
parameters and would improve the credibility of the results.
Although there are limitations in the application of the methodology,
the overall results show that the methodology is operational and can be
expanded to cover more products. The approach contains the requisite ele-
ments of being futuristic, comprehensive, and systematic. The systematic
characteristic permits the results to be reviewed and the underlying assump-
tions to be challenged so that additional resources can be applied to
further improve the approach.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
(1) Allured, Stanley E., editor, Cosmetics and Perfumery. Allured
Publishing Company (1972-1973).
(2) Allured, Stanley E., editor, American Perfumers and Cosmetics
(presently changed to title Cosmetics and Perfumery). Allured
Publishing Company (1962-1971).
(3) Balsam, M.S., Sagarin, E., "Cosmetics: Science and Technology",
Wiley Interscience. Second Edition, 1 and 2 (1972).
(4) Blackman, A. Wade Jr., "The Market Dynamics of Technological Sub-
stitutions", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, j>,
41-63 (1974).
(5) Butrico, Frank A., "Early Warning Systems Concerned with Environmental
Contaminants", American Journal of Public Health, _59 (3), 442-449
(March, 1969).
(6) Carter, Anne P., Structural Change in the American Economy, Harvard
University Press (1970).
(7) Christenson, H.E., Luginbyhl, T.T., editors, The Toxic Substance
List. 1974 Edition, National Institute for Occupational Health and
Safety, HEW (June, 1974).
(8) Commoner, Barry, The Closing Circle. Alfred A. Knopf, New York (1971).
(9) Drake, J.W., et.al., Committee 17 appointed by Council of Environ-
mental Mutagen Society, "Environmental Mutagenic Hazards", Science.
187, 503-517 (February 14, 1975).
(10) Dunlap, Lloyd, "Mercury: Anatomy of a Pollution Problem", Chemical
and Engineering News, 21-34 (July 5, 1971).
(11) Edwards, R., "The Polychlorobiphenyls, Their Occurrence and Signifi-
cance: A Review", Chemistry and Industry, 1340-1348 (November 20, 1971),
(12) Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Toxic Substances, "Acti-
vities of Federal Agencies Concerning Selected High Volume Chemicals",
(February, 1975).
(13) Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Monitoring,
"Water Pollution Potential of Manufactured Products", Catalog
Sections 1,2,3, U.S. Government Printing Office (1973).
(14) Fisher, W. Haider, "Previews 85: Forecasts of Growth in Total Ship-
ments of 4-Digit Product Groups 1970-1985", Summary Report from
Battelle's Columbus Laboratories (March 22, 1974).
83
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
(Continued)
(15) Flinn, James E., Thomas, Theodore J., Bishop, Milo D., "Identification
Systems for Selecting Chemicals or Chemical Classes as Candidates for
Evaluation", NTIS Report No. PB-238 196 prepared for EPA by Battelle's
Columbus Laboratories (November, 1974).
(16) Food and Drug Administration, "Phtalate Effect on Health Still Not
Clear", Chemical and Engineering News. (September 18, 1972).
(17) Galbraith, John K., Economics and the Public Purpose. Houghton-
Mifflin Publishing Company (1973).
(18) Gleason, M.N., et.al., Clinical Toxicology of Commercial Products, The
Williams and Wilkins Company (1969).
(19) Goulden, H.D., Klarmann, E.G., Powers, D.H., Sagarin, E., editors,
"Cosmetics: Science and Technology", Wiley Interscience, (1957).
(20) Harry, R.G., Cosmetics: Their Principles and Practices, Chemical
Publishing Company, Inc. (1956).
(21) Herzog, Henry W. Jr., "An Environmental Assessment of Future Production-
Related Technological Change 1970-2000: An Input-Output Approach",
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 5, 75-90 (1973).
(22) Houthakker, H.S., Taylor, Lester D., Consumer Demand in the United
States: Analyses and Projections, Harvard University Press, Cambridge,
Massachusetts (1970).
(23) Howard, Philip H., "Synthetic Organic Chemicals in the Environment:
A Method for Prediction of Organic Chemical Pollution", Syracuse
University Research Corporation, (March, 1973).
(24) Kiethler, William R., "The Formulation of Cosmetics and Cosmetic
Specialties", Drug and Cosmetic Industry. (1956).
(25) Kramer, Barry, "Vinyl Chloride Risks Were Known by Many Before First
Deaths", Wall Street Journal. (October 2, 1974).
(26) Kramer, Barry, "Vinyl Chloride Scare Points Up Dangers of Other
Chemicals", Wall Street Journal. (October 7, 1974).
(27) Leontief, Wassily, "Environmental Repercussions of the Economic
Structure: An Input-Output Approach", Review of Economics and Sta-
tistics. III. 262-271 (August, 1970).
(28) Lutz, G.A., et.al., "Design of an Overview System for Evaluating the
Public Health Hazards of Chemicals in the Environment, Volume II",
Final Report from Battelle's Columbus Laboratories (July 18, 1967).
84
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
(Continued)
(29) McGee, Arthur A., McCaleb, Kirtland E., "A Research Program to Acquire
and Analyze Information on Chemicals that Impact on Man and His Environ-
ment", Battelie-Government sponsored Seminar on Early Warning Systems
for Toxic Substances, Battelle Seattle Research Center, (January 31-
February 2, 1974) (Proceedings Forthcoming).
(30) Moxley, Patrick, editor, Soap, Perfumery, and Cosmetics, United
Trade Press Ltd. (1965-1972).
(31) National Science Foundation, Trace Contaminants Program, Environmental
Systems and Resources, "Workshop Recommendations and Guidelines for
Component B of the Selection System for Hazard Priority Ranking of
Manufactured Organic Chemicals", (1974).
(32) Newman, David R., editor, Toxic Materials News, Business Publishers,
Inc. (Bi-Monthly Business Newsletter).
(33) Nie, Norman H., Bent, Dale H., Hull, C.H., Statistical Package for
the Social Sciences, McGraw-Hill Publishing Company (1970).
(34) Quackenbos, H.M. Jr., "Plasticizers in Vinyl Chloride Resins - Migra-
tion of Plasticizer", Industrial and Engineering Chemistry, 46,
(June, 1954).
(35) Schweitzer, Glenn E., "1974 - A Year of Transition", Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Toxic Substances (January 31, 1974).
(36) Survey of Current Business, .54 (2), (February, 1974).
(37) Thomas, George A., Predicasts, Inc., (58), Fourth Quarter (January 24,
1975).
(38) U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Annual Survey of
Manufactures: 1971 Industry Profiles, U.S. Government Printing
Office (1973).
(39) U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Census of Manu-
factures, Industry Series, Preliminary Report (1972).
(40) U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Census of Manu-
factures, Industry Statistics, Part 2, Volume II (1967) and Part 1,
Volume II (1963).
(41) U.S. Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and
Budget, Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1972, U.S. Govern-
ment Printing Office (1972).
(42) "Waste Lube Oils Pose Disposal Dilemma", Environmental Science and
Technology, .6 (1), (January, 1972).
85
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APPENDIX A
PREVIEWS 85
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF BATTELLE'S INTEGRATED
FORECASTING MODEL OF THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY
PREVIEWS 85 is a program of economic forecasting and assistance
in long-term planning that Battelle's Columbus Laboratories (BCL) offers
the business community. This program is built around a unique, integrated
economic forecasting model of the United States that was constructed as
part of the Aids to Corporate Thinking program (ACT) at BCL during the
interval 1964-73. Since this model is centered on an input-output table,
some knowledge of input-output (I/O) nomenclature is required to under-
stand it. We assume that the reader has or can obtain this knowledge*.
Between 1964 and 1972, BCL was engaged in the first four phases
of the ACT program. The economic research progressed through four phases
designed to project the U.S. economy to 1975, with a base (reference) year
of 1960:
ACT I examined and provided forecasts for the consumer sector.
ACT II examined the industrial sector, adopting and developing
the input-output (I/O) technique as its fundamental methodology.
ACT III studied and made forecasts of government expenditures.
ACT IV concentrated on making improvements and refinements in
I/O techniques.
In addition, while the previous phases of ACT had projected the
economy only to 1975, ACT IV began extending these forecasts to 1980 and
1985 and began enlarging the number of industrial sectors in the model
from 82 to 130.
The ACT program resulted in several methodological innovations and
improvements in I/O techniques. Among the more important are
A method for better estimating the impact of technology on
the economy.
A method for incorporating price effects into the I/O frame-
work.
* Readers who are unfamiliar with I/O terminology are referred to A Business-
man's Introduction to Input-Output, obtainable upon request from BCL.
-------
The development of a data base which "strips out" certain
artificial and misleading entries characteristic of govern-
ment I/O data.
The extension of I/O applications toward the projection of
trends in sector profitability.
The development of an entirely new set of data (the balanced-
expansion capital coefficients matrix) to deal with the capi-
tal goods sector, a sector usually treated only superficially
in conventional I/O analyses. This research, conducted in
conjunction with SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, was made available to
ACT sponsors.
The results provided to ACT sponsors were of two kinds: (1) pro-
jections and analyses based on special insights provided by the research
and (2) the models and data, per se, for the sponsors' own use.
Concurrent with the ACT program, Battelle conducted numerous other
economic researcn activities. Key advances were made in economic simulation
models, particularly models tying together economic and demographic variables*.
An outgrowth of this work was the development of new computer languages or
programming formats that improved the efficiency of building economic
models.
ACT V, ending in March 1973, integrated the results of all previous
efforts into a new and expanded model that, from a base year in 1970, fore-
casts the U.S. economy for 5-year intervals out to 1985. The resultant
economic forecasting tool, which became the basis of the PREVIEWS 85 pro-
gram, will be described in the following pages.
PHILOSOPHICAL BACKGROUND
Every forecast or forecasting model is a result of the philosophical
attitude of its creators. Therefore, before anyone can fully comprehend or
evaluate the usefulness of the ACT/PREVIEWS model, he must at least be
aware of the point of view or philosophy which governed the approach, the
selection of methodologies, and the choices that were made whenever the re-
search team faced alternative paths. At this point, we briefly sketch
out this philosophy in terms of four main areas of consideration: our
view of the "future", our conception of the role played by forecasts, our
attitude toward simulation as an aid to decision making, and our conception
as to how a "global" model of this sort should be organized.
See, for instance, Systems Simulation for Regional Analysis, Hamilton, et al.,
M.I.T. Press, 1969, for a comprehensive treatment of the basic concepts in-
volved. These concepts have been refined and extended in subsequent
studies.
A-2
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A View of the Future
PREVIEWS 85 has as its stated purpose acquainting the corporate
planner with the socioeconomic environment of the longer term future. The
conception of "socioeconomic environment" makes explicit the fact that social
or political forces outside the usual definition of "economic" are taken
into account. Any forward look of necessity must be selective; our particu-
lar selection of noneconomic factors to be included in this future environ-
ment has been made in terms of two criteria: technological relevance and
continuity with the present and recent past. Suppose we examine them.
Technological Relevance
Technology may be defined as human uses of resources to change
or influence the environment. This is a somewhat broader concept than that
usually applied, especially when we include society as part of the environ-
ment and institutions as part of technology. Nevertheless, we are convinced
of the relevancy and usefulness of this conception, mainly because the same
resources (human effort, energy, natural resources, and accumulated capital)
will enter into both the core technology, as usually defined, and technology
as more extensively defined here.
Battelle, as a broad-spectrum scientific research laboratory, may
be said to be in the "technology business". Much of its total research
effort is directed toward actually shaping the technologies of the future,
and probably all the rest is directed toward better understanding the im-
plications of those technologies and their impacts on people and organi-
zations. Technology therefore cannot be taken for granted by Battelle.
It is a matter of interest and of focused attention. This fact has
directly influenced our forecasting methodology.
For example, the so-called "ex ante" approach to the forecasting
of input-output coefficients has been designed for the explicit purpose of
taking fullest account of the impacts of technological change on inter-
Industry relationships. There are several different ways of establishing
a matrix of direct technical coefficients that presumably reflects
target-year technologies:
1. A matrix from a past year can be assumed to describe the
future year without further change.
2. A matrix for a past year can be assumed to describe the
future year after adjustments for relative price changes.
3. For a selected group of coefficients assumed likely to
undergo technological change, technological forecasts can
be made, and all other coefficients conformed to them.
A-3
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4. Estimates can be made of the marginal dollar totals (total
intermediate output, and total intermediate input) for
every productive sector. Then the dollar flows can be
adjusted by means of a double-proportionality method (RAS)
to conform to the new marginal values; and new coefficients
can be derived.
5. An extrapolation into the future can be made by standard
econometric methods, if comparable coefficients matrices
are available for two or more past years.
6. A technological forecast to one or more target years can
be made for each sector in the I/O table and converted
into coefficient form.
Each of these six methods has been used by some, group or agency
interested in making I/O forecasts. The first three are probably the ones
used'most often; some examples, but relatively few, of the next two have
come to our attention; but, to the best of our knowledge, only Battelle-
Columbus has consistently and systematically used the sixth one. A brief
discussion of the philosophy guiding our choice of this sixth approach is
in order.
The Ex Ante Approach. It is generally agreed that the post-World
War II period has been one of rapid technological change, one in which new
processes and materials have been adopted, new technical substitutions have
been made feasible, and new interindustry markets have emerged. Because
of this, the earlier thesis of unchanging or very slowly changing technical
coefficients has come under attack. Certainly, to the extent that tech-
nological change has speeded up, it is now less likely than ever before that
past coefficients will characterize future production, and that past
markets (defined in seller/buyer terms) will be unchanged in the future.
Battelle, as a contract research organization, is engaged at least
partially in shaping the technology of the future. In choosing an I/O
forecasting method, it has consciously sought one sensitive to the tech-
nology of the future. For long-term forecasts, therefore, Battelle de-
cided to use a methodology that did not force the future to adhere to
the interindustry patterns of the pastthat is, it decided to adopt a
method which would both allow old buyer/seller relations to change or
disappear and would allow new buyer/seller relationships (never experienced
in the past) to emerge.
The adoption of this criterion automatically removed from con-
sideration every method of projecting the direct coefficients matrix
which forced the target-year matrix to duplicate the same cell-density
pattern (i.e., pattern of nonzero values) observed in past years. In other
words, whether or not new nonzero cells would in fact emerge, the forecast-
ing methodology should not preclude the possibility of such an emergence.
This meant that Battelle could not depend solely on any one or more of the
A-4
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first five of the six methods listed, but only on the sixth. At the same
time, as long as the controlling criterion was not violated, the other five
methods could be used for intermediate or preliminary forecasts.
The forecasting methodology which has resulted from this decision
is a multistage, Bayesian method which we have designated "the ex ante"
approach to forecasting interindustry relationships. In general, the method
consists of generating a preliminary matrix of direct coefficients for each
target year, using whatever method or combination of methods (from the
first five in the list) is feasible. These preliminary coefficients are
then subject to intensive cell-by-cell review by members of a group of
experts, the selection of whom is crucial to the effectiveness of the ap-
proach. Then the more final coefficient values are established and
normalized. A more detailed discussion of the ex ante approach can be
provided any sponsor desiring it. The most important consideration is that
this method does everything that can be done by any other method currently
employed in forecasting I/O coefficients, plus one thing more: It
utilizes expert judgment as to the likelihood that profound changes in
interindustry relationships will occur because of new technological de-
velopments.
Continuity
When we say that "continuity with the present and recent past"
is one of our criteria for selecting the parts of our model, we are not
implying that the future is a static continuation of the present. Rather,
we are saying that there is an orderly process of change which must take
place over time. While discontinuities may be possible, true discontinui-
ties in aggregate human affairs are so rare as to be of negligible signifi-
cance. What Drucker and others have termed "discontinuities" are actually
slight speedings-up of the pace of changetheir "discontinuities" all
prove to involve change, not abrupt substitutions of one situation for
another. Granted, the closer we come to the individual, the more likely
it is that his life can be revolutionized or terminated by a sudden event.
But that event had been evolving elsewhere in the scheme of things. It
would be a "discontinuity" only because of limited vision.
In other words, to be meaningful, a description of the future
must be able to answer the question, "How can you get there from here?"
This is especially true of a description of future technology. Technology
evolves from the laboratory to the pilot plant to gradual embodiment into
plant-and-equipment. It must "gestate and be born". During the six or
more years we have been using the ex ante approach, the ACT team inter-
viewed and worked with hundreds of experts in industrial technology. This
experience has led to an important generalization:
The technological developments that are likely to influence the
10"or 12-year future are already under way in research laboratories and
pilot plants. The length of this gestation period is such, therefore, that
A-5
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ex ante forecasts for a 10- or 12-year future can be made with little need
to fear "surprises", or unexpected breakthroughs. Forecasts for futures
longer than 10 to 12 years, however, are in serious danger of being dis-
turbed by surprises..
Applying this generalization to the PREVIEWS model (developed in
the 2-year period 1971-1972) leads to the conclusion that we can have a
high degree of confidence in the technological forecasts which support our
I/O coefficients out to 1980. By 1985, however, there is so much room for
surprises that this confidence must be significantly qualified. For that
reason, after a lapse of about five years, we plan to make new, more nearly
final forecasts for 1985 and extend the forecasts to 1990 on a preliminary
basis.
It should also be pointed out that, in the interest of continuity,
we are careful to select experts who combine clear understanding of both
the scientific possibilities and the business decisions that will shape
future technologies. As we have often said, we are interested in fore-
casting future business realities, not in writing science fiction.
The Purpose of Forecasts
In framing PREVIEWS we have been governed by a very specific con-
ception of the purpose which must be served by any long-term forecast. Be-
fore stating it, however, it will be useful to examine the difference between
long and short futures, from the standpoint of the forecaster.
As we see it, the short term futurethat is, the next year or
twohas already been largely "committed" by acts already performed and
by decisions already made. There is relatively little freedom for decisions
not yet made to profoundly influence it, particularly at the more aggregate
levels of macroeconomic events. Therefore, a short term forecasting model
should be evaluated mainly in terms of its ability to predict, that is, to
describe what that future will look like when it arrives. It follows that
the validity of a short term model can be fairly determined by comparing
its forecasts with subsequent realities.
Long term futures (beyond five years, especially) are not com-
mitted to anything like the same degree. Decisions which are yet to be
made, which will be made at least in part by users of long term forecasts,
will have profound influence on the long term future. Thus, the forecast
itself is not and cannot be a prediction, but is at best a projection. It
must be viewed as a judgmental extension of forces which are known to
operate or to have operated into a future in which they will not necessarily
be dominant. While the long term forecaster is naturally gratified when his
projections are borne out by events, it must be recognized as good fortune,
not as proof of excellence.
We view the long term forecast as an aid to decision making. In
our model we have brought together "best judgments" concerning the likely
future and have quantified them to the best of our ability. We have used
A-6
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the best data and the most precise methods available. But we have done
this all with the full knowledge, that any long carm forecast is far more
a judgment than a prediction. Therefore, our ex ante method is a device
for explicitly eliciting, concrol ling . checking, quantifying, and inte-
grating expert judgments about, the future.
Simulations
As a logical extension of our philosophical view of the long term
future, it follows that this model should be flexible in its capability to
change with new or different judgments concerning forces affecting that
future In other words, the model ought to allow the working out of the
implications of quite different judgments from those which we used. For
instance, it is our best judgment that a particular set of assumptions con-
cerning future fertility should be incorporated into the demographic part
of the model. We cannot prove that these assumptions will, in fact, control.
the future. Therefore, we have built the model so that an alternative set
of fertility assumptions can be substituted and their implications quanti-
fied thereby. To the best of our capability and resources, we have done
this throughout the model.
There are many alternative sets of assumptions which may be
equally likely to affect the future, in the opinion of any business or
public policy decision maker. When this is the case, prudence dictates
that all be taken into account and that the final decision be the one
that looks best for the greatest number of likely futures. Thus, decision
making can be greatly facilitated by the use of simulation, by asking
the model "but what if - - - -'?" and working OIAU the alternative impli-
cations. At every step in its construction, the PREVIEWS model has been
designed for optimal flexibility as a simulation model. As we work with
its we will try to improve it even further in this respect.
PREVIEWS Model Structure
As presently constructed, with some consideration of elements which
have not been undertaken, the model is presented schematically in the ac-
companying figure. It will be noticed that there are five numbered com-
ponents, or "modules", as well as three unnumbered modules connected to
the rest of the model by broken arrows. The numbered modules are now opera-
tional, though not necessarily in their ultimately final form: the other
three are not, but will be added soon. At this point, we wish to discuss
this model in terms of its broad characteristics.
The research of ACT V was predicated on the belief that a compre-
hensive forecasting model is needed that takes into account the interaction
among three fundamental forces in our economy. Thea?. forces are:
A-7
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Module 2
GNP
MODEL
Module 1
DEMO-
GRAPHIC
MODEL
FACTOR
COST
MODELS
THE BATTELLE-COLUMBUS ECONOMIC
FORECASTING MODEL
Module 3
PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION
MODEL
-£*
Module 5
THE
I/O
FORECAST
VALUE ADDED
i
a
i
(M
*"
* To be added.
** To be replaced by dynamic estimating modules for each separate final demand.
Module A
OTHER
FINAL
DEMANDS
* *
PRICE
PROJECTIONS
*
ANALYSIS
OF VALUE
ADDED,
PROFITS &
ROI
*
1.
DemographyThe changing structure of our population will
have a significant impact on both the growth of the total
economy and the nature of the products purchased.
2* Consumer behaviorRisinE incomes will alter many spending
patterns from what they have been in the past.
3' Technological changeNew technology will continue to have a
significant impact both on what products are demanded and
how they will be produced.
A-8
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We have selected those variables that are important relative to
each of the above factors, and integrated them into a comprehensive model
of the U.S. economy which also includes variables affecting aggregate GNP
and other final demands beside those of the consumer. This model is capable
of making detailed forecasts of population, consumer spending, and the out-
put of various industries. An analysis of the nature and significance of
each of these three forces follows, along with discussions of the other
model elements.
Demographic Structure
Two significant developments have shaped the postwar structure
of the U.S. population. First, the highly publicized baby-boom following
World War II produced a well-defined "ripple" or "bulge" in the population
age structure. Table 1 shows how the growth of various age groups changed
between 1950 and 1970.
TABLE 1. GROWTH RATES BY AGE-CLASS OF
U.S. POPULATION, 1950-1970
Age Classes (Average
Years Under 25
1950-1960
1960-1970
2.44
1.58
25-34
-0.48
0.98
35-44
1.13
-0.46
All Races
Numbers
1950*
I960**
1970**
63,353
80,652
94,326
24,036
22,918
25,278
21,637
24,221
23,126
Annual
45-54
1
1
.66
.24
Percent
55-64
1
1
.55
.79
Change)
Over 65
3.
1.
02
91
Total
1
1
.72
.26
, All Sexes
(Thousands)
17
20
23
,453
,572
,269
13
15
18
,396
,621
,648
12,
16,
20,
397
685
156
152
180
204
,271
,667
,800
* Source: Current Population Reports; Population Estimates, Series P-25,
No. 311, July 2, 1965, pp. 22-23, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Census.
** Source: Current Population Reports, Population Estimates and Projections,
Series P-25, No. 476, February 1972, p. 13.
In the 1950's the "ripple" affected the youngest age groups, e.g.,
persons under 10 years of age. This produced a strong demand for products
and services directed at this age group. To give one example, demands on
elementary schools were heavy and teacher shortages developed during that
A-9
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period. Then, during the 1960's, the "postwar babies" reached their teens
and produced, among other things, heavy demands for secondary and college
educational systems. By the late 1960's, this group was beginning to
marry, significantly increasing rates of family formation. This family
formation boom will continue into the early 1970's and will lead to con-
tinued higher levels of demand for products associated with new house-
holds, e.g., housing and furniture.
In the 1960's a second important variable emerged. The birth
rate began to fall. Thus, while family formation was up significantly in
the latter part of the 1960's, the new families were having relatively
fewer children. Thus, the 1970rs find us with a significantly higher
portion of heads of households that are in the younger age brackets but
who have fewer than the historical number of children. Families are
getting smaller.
It is our contention that these important trendschanging rela-
tions in the age structure, declining family sizes, and falling birth
ratesshould all be considered when forecasting trends in consumer spend-
ing and in industry growth. These demographic factors usually are dis-
cussed in the literature in terms of their more obvious implications for
such products as baby foods, but we believe that they also have important,
though often subtle and indirect impacts on many industrial products, such
as steel and aluminum. These demographic factors are explicitly introduced
in Module 1.
Gross National Product
In order to take account both of historical trends in aggregate
productivity and demands as well as of the demographic and consumer related
forces affecting the future, a special GNP submodel (Module 2) has been
devised. This module operates both on its own internal (endogenous) forces
and on feedback from the population and consumption modules. In order to
generate some initial values for GNP and its components, this portion of
the model operates at a highly aggregative level to convert trends in the
population of working ages, in real productivity, and in the main components
of GNP into projections of real income and output under assumptions of full
resource employment. The trends in three of these variables are shown in
Table 2.
Notice that real GNP per person of working age (i.e., real pro-
ductivity) increased during this entire period at a relatively uniform
2.5 percent per year rate. The working age group, however, increased twice
as rapidly during the 1960's as during the 1950's, a direct result of the
population "bulge" discussed above. The ratio of real personal consumption
to GNP held essentially steady during the 1950's and rose during the 1960's.
As we can demonstrate, this upward trend has been partly reversed by other
considerations in our projections to 1985.
-------
TABLE 2. TRENDS IN GNP AGGREGATES, 1950-1970
Year
Real GNP
per Worker*
Working
Population*
PCE as
Percent
of GNP
1950 $5,190 92,597,000 64.9
1960 6,634 99,464,000 64.8
1970 8,474 114,944,000 66.1
Growth Rates (Percent per Year)
1950-1960 2.5 0.7
1960-1970 2.5 1.5
Sources: Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
* The working population (whether or not in the labor force) is defined
here as all persons 18 through 64 years of age. Real GNP is expressed
in constant 1970 dollars.
Consumer Spending and the Consumer Profile
How consumer spending varies with income is a much discussed and
analyzed subject. An analysis of such shifts is an obvious requirement for
inclusion in any comprehensive economic forecasting model. However, as
previously discussed, we also feel it is necessary to include analysis of
how expenditures change by householdthe basic spending unitas the age
of the head of the household and the family size change. These analyses
take on increased importance because the proportions of the population in
each age group is changing at the same time that average family size has
been falling. Considerations of this kind are dealt with by Module 3.
One hypothesis we have formulated is that the economy might ex-
perience a double-barreled increase in discretionary income resulting
from a simultaneous rise in family income and a drop in family size. This
would be brought about first by the well known phenomenon that increasing
incomes would allow less and less to be devoted to necessities and more
devoted to discretionary items. While the family size consideration is
less well understood and discussed, it seems apparent that two families
with about the same income, but with a different number of children, will
tend to spend their income differently. The smaller families can be
assumed to have more discretionary income, all other things being equal.
Thus, future discretionary incomes may rise more than a structurally histori-
cal extrapolation might indicate. Such an acceleration in discretionary income
A-n
-------
and related expenditures probably would favor products and services
directed toward the amenities rather than the necessities.
Table 3 lists the family characteristics in terms of which fore-
casts or simulations can be made. Not only can .changes be made directly
in terms of these classes and their behavior, but changes can also be made
in terms of the behavior of other characteristics (e.g., race, tenure
status, education of head) and fed directly into the model through the listed
characteristics. In connection with the income-behavior classes, attention
is called to the fact that each class will have different, rather than fixed
income limits in each year. In parentheses we show the 1950 income class
most similar in behavior to the given income-behavior class. In 1970, how-
ever, each such class received higher incomes than those shown.
TABLE 3. BASIC FAMILY CHARACTERISTICS USED IN
THE CONSUMPTION MODULE
Age of Head
Number of
Persons in Family
Income-Behavior
Class
(1960 Income per Family)
Under 25 years
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and over
1 person
2 persons
3 persons
4 persons
5 persons
6 or more
I (under $3,000)
II ($3,000-3,999)
III ($4,000-4,999)
IV ($5,000-5,999)
V ($6,000-7,499)
VI ($7,500-9,999)
VII ($10,000-14,999)
VIII ($15,000 and over)
For each of the 48 family size-and-income classes in any year,
our consumer behavior equations forecast expenditures for each of 42 classes
of consumer's goods and services. These are listed in Table 4. We also break
down each of these 42 classes into finer classes, for a total of 180 con-
sumption items altogether, before feeding them into our input-output model
(Module 5).
A-12
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TABLE 4. THE BROAD CATEGORIES OF CONSUMPTION FOR WHICH
EXPENDITURES BY FAMILY CLASS ARE PROJECTED
Food prepared at home
Food away from home
Tobacco
Alcoholic beverages
Rented dwellings
Owned dwellings, owned vacation homes, and other owned
real estate
Lodging out of home city
Fuel, light, refrigeration, and water
Household operation
Household textiles
Furniture
Floor covering
Appliances
Miscellaneous household items
Other housewares
Men's and boys' outerwear
Men's and boys' underwear, nightwear and socks
Men's and boys' footwear
Men's and boys' hats, gloves and accessories
Women's and girls' outerwear
Women's and girls' underwear and nightwear
Women's and girls' hosiery
Women's and girls' footwear
Women's and girls' hats, gloves and accessories
Clothing, children under two years
Automobile purchase
Automobile operation
Other travel and transportation
Prepaid medical care
Direct-expense medical care
Personal care services
Personal care supplies
Audio-visual home recreation
Spectator admissions
Other recreation
Reading material
Education
Clothing materials (hard goods, notions, etc.)
Personal insurance
Gifts and contributions (as value)
Miscellaneous tours, etc.
Clothing services.
A-13
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Other Final Demands
Although, as indicated by the last column in Table 2, consumer
expenditures (PCE) constitute about two-thirds of total final demand,
changes in the forces affecting the other elements can have significant
influence on the economy. As presently established, Module 4 operates
primarily by the application of historical trend factors and structural
distributions that have characterized these other final markets. In the
Immediate futuret however, we hope to replace parts of this module with
new modules that will generate these other components of GNP in terms
of their own cause-effect relationships.
As they feed into the I/O submodel (Module 5) these other final
demands embrace the markets provided by investment (both in plant-and-
equipment and in inventory); by governmental expenditures at the federal,
state and local levels; and by foreign trade. In the latter case, the
demand for U.S. products that is generated by our exports must be offset
against the satisfaction of U.S. demands by the importation of competitive
foreign goods and services.
During subsequent research programs we intend to substitute new
modules for the present Module 4, beginning probably with the addition of
a capital matrix and an inventory model. These two new elements, by them-
selves, will greatly enhance the dynamic effectiveness of the overall
model.
Industry Profile
In addition to consumer spending trends and demographic influ-
ences technology is an extremely important determinant of the kinds of
products that will be demanded and the ways in which they will be pro-
duced. As technology changes, it exerts immediate and important influence
on the growth and decline of specific economic sectors. Some industries
will begin to produce new and improved products, thereby spurring demands
for their output. Technological change often alters the processes by which
various products are made, thus placing new and different demands on a
wide range of suppliers.
In generating any set of industry forecasts, not only must one
cea&ider the final market demands created by the consumer, by investors,
by government, and by export markets, one must also consider the demands
of other industries. For many industries, such as steel, these so-called
"intermediate demands" are far more important than the "final demands"
of the consumer. It is our contention that any attempt to forecast levels
of future economic activity must take into account all demands upon each
industry, not just those of consumers, government and other final markets.
In particular, interindustry demands must be considered, and, in consider-
ing them the role of technology must be explicitly recognized.
A-14
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The 127 industrial sectors for which this model forecasts tech-
nology and market profiles are listed in Table 5.
TABLE 5. INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery
Livestock, and livestock products
Field and orchard crops
Forestry and fishery products
Services to agriculture, forestry, and fishery
Extraction of Mineral Resources
Iron and ferroalloys ores
Copper ores
Nonferrous ores, except copper
Coal
Crude petroleum and natural gas
Stone and clays
Chemical and fertilizer minerals
Manufacture of Food, Leather, and
Textile Products
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Leather tanning and industrial leather products
Footwear and other leather products
Fabrics, yarns, and threads
Soft floor coverings
Tire cord and miscellaneous textile goods
Knitted apparel
Apparel made from purchased materials
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products
Wood and Paper Products
Sawmills and planing mills
Veneer and plywood
All other lumber and wood products, except containers
Wooden containers
Household furniture
Other furniture and fixtures
Pulp, paper and paper products, except containers
Paperboard containers and boxes
Petroleum and Chemical Products
Petroleum refining and related products
Paving mixtures and asphalt products
A-15
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TABLE 5. (Continued)
Petroleum and Chemical Products (Continued)
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals
Fertilizers
Agricultural chemicals, except fertilizers
Miscellaneous chemical products
Plastics materials, resins, and synthetic rubber
Organic manmade fibers
Cleaning preparations
Drugs
Toilet preparations
Faints and allied products
Tires and innertubes
All other rubber products
Manufactured plastics products
Stone, Clay, and Glass Products
Glass and glass products
Hydraulic cement, lime, and gypsum products
Clay and cement products, and refractories
All other stone and nonmetallic mineral products
Primary Metals and Manufactures
Primary iron and steel
Primary copper
Primary aluminum
All other primary nonferrous metals
Fabricated Metal Products
Metal cans
Metal barrels, drums, and pails
Metal sanitary ware and plumbing fittings
Nonelectric heating equipment
Fabricated structural metal products
Screw machine products, etc., and stampings
Other fabricated metal products
General Machinery and Components
Engines and turbines
General industrial machinery and equipment
Machine-shop products
Specialized Machinery
Farm machinery
Construction machinery
Mining machinery
A-16
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TABLE 5. (Continued)
Specialized Machinery (Continued)
Oil-field machinery
Materials-handling machinery, except trucks
Industrial trucks and tractors
Metalworking machinery
Special industry machinery
Transportation Equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Aircraft and parts
Ship and boat building and repair
Locomotives and rail and street cars
Motorcycles, bicycles, trailer coaches, etc,
General Electrical Apparatus
Electrical measuring instruments
Electric motors and generators
Industrial controls transformers, etc.
Electric lamps
Lighting fixtures and wiring devices
Electronic components and accessories
Miscellaneous electrical machinery
Special Electrical Apparatus
Service industry machinery
Household appliances
Radio, television, and communications equipment
Scientific and Measuring Devices
Scientific instruments, measures, and controls
Medical, surgical, dental instruments, and supplies
Watches, clocks, and parts
Optical and ophthalmic goods
Photographic equipment and supplies
Business Machines and Supplies
Computing and related machines
All other office and business machines
Office supplies
Miscellaneous Manufactures
Ordnance and accessories
Other miscellaneous products
A-17
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TABLE 5. (Continued)
Transportation
Railroads and related services
Local and other highway passenger transport
Motor freight and warehousing
Water transportation
Air transport
Pipe lines
Transportation services
Public Utilities
Telecommunication
Electric power
Gas
Water services
Sanitary services
Construction
New construction, nonfara residences
New construction, nonresidential buildings
New construction, public utility
*! '. New construction, highway and other
\\ ; Maintenance and repair construction
*; ;
]'. Trade and Business Services
" I
* i
Wholesale and retail trade
*' Finance and insurance
,'. Real estate and rental
"' , Advertising
.'.'. Other business and professional services
Business travel, entertainment, and gifts
,'; Other Services
Printing and publishing
Radio and television broadcasting
Hotels and lodging places
Personal and repair services, except auto
Automobile repair and services
Amusements
Medical and health services
Educational services and nonprofit organizations
Government Enterprise
Post Office
A-18
-------
APPENDIX B
VALUE OF SHIPMENTS
-------
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. 165?
.1 i^l.
. ie.se
.!<!?!
, 162?
. if,.-, f
. 1 «, :1 1
. 1595
.1556
. 1552
\\ll\
. 1529
.1 19 u
; HI*
. K.77
. 1 1. <-. 6
.11.6,0
!ihi!t
. 1<.2"
.1.11.
.1398
, 1 '( : r
1 97?
VALUF
f M I L ? »
?c 1
21 .8
?n .1
?3.n
12.1
5.9
11 .7
1316.1
276.1.
13C ,3
U.-.5.1
1F,? n
18.8
u .8
101. .(.
1C. 7
li.B.7
lb.3'
1C. 2 _.
1.1.1,
61.. fl
65.2
68.2
bOoit
C6.1
U 3 .3
r^i!
f.0.5
. . ': .7 ...
1 3 > . &
t U.1
r.oOMTH
RATE
1F1.U
.1663
.f M77
.2716
.'"L5
.115(7
.C623
.0552
.H.U7
.1732
.21.53
.1CUU
.0816
.11.87
.116<»
.11.82
.11.73
.t 377
.0757
.C962
.11,1.7
.11.1,7
.11.^2
.1117
:?«-n
.11-01
, U 00
. r OLU
1967
VALUE
18.1
1 f-.l.
1C.1
13.2
3. 7
197 .7
5.6
l.B
51. C-
?P.7
905.3
15.9
2C1..3
12.9
99.6
67.1
2Jfv.2
357.1.
12. 7
0. i,
&C.2
21.. 3
3.8
1'5.6
8.2
1.5.0
",1.2
3^.7
181.. 7
391.. 9
3R0.5
31.. 1
12.6
36,6
'><».3
72.9
?8 .3
75.1
roowTH
PATE
.1658
.1 faBb
.2681.
.1655
- . 1: 1 32
.052
.2359
-.1199
. 1620
1608^
.1767
.719?
!i569
.1620
,1552
.1310
.1529
.2^2
.1776
.0522
.1991.
.2560
-.Oi .q
KPnMTH. ±q5B
RATE VALUE
(MIL _*
.2791* 0.7
.7539 3<». 8
.1639 17.?
.1081. 22.0
.1585 15.0
.2296 21.6
.1,709 6.1
, . .111.7 51.. <}
.1507 103.1.
.1505 101.?
.0069 6. A
.0835 7-3 "
-------
PPOOUCT
cor|!r
UNIT or
.
TOTJI
VALUt
(MIL J '
GROWTH -....
RATE
1957
VALU
E
-£_J
KOOWTH
RATE
1963
r.unwTH
VALUE RATE
(MTI ? 1
1953
VALUE
2P341
28411
?*!.! r
tfL>\?
2h?14
25110
2»;u?
ling
2° V.I.
2f4?.3
.-JPL..1
CO ?fih-M,
" »?s"
2P445
?<.<-, 1?
£8342
? 1 '. I 1
2^»3
»"qo
26440
28563
2? 213
21 2 '.2
2S4H
28693
2P.752
2iqq5
2«2ll
2M1I
. . _. 2P.4M
27
i7
21
!'
m
31
?5
ij
5]
hi
73
25
31 . _
1 1
27
11 --.
11
71
63
15
?3
go
17
41
<.i
45 .. _
73
3<
1ILLTOH nOL
N.ILtlOM .201
MILLION C,;L
"1 1 LION I01!
."ILL 10!' 111
THOUSA'iO TCNf.
MILLION LH"1;
"Ti 1 1'"1'1 n*"i
MIlLiOll L^S
''ILL I OK nf)L
«7 LI rov nn|p
itn i TOM r.f.i
THOU0; ))NTTC
il LI inv i r«:
Kill TIN OOL
MILL T'JK HPL
THODS UNITS
"ILL ION I-/IL _
:n LI TOK r.Ai
wi LI ff. noL
TH«ii«A.>m TON?;
1ILLIOI. POL
THO'.'J (/(IT'-
TMfi|)-ilM|) TO'I";
"TLi ION LT'i
MILLION LPS
I'ILL TOM LC3.5
.. _. 1C?.?
f-.l
43. R
3U.3
3,-.?
119.7
f-S.9
.0192
.1350
, 1714
. o 4 n a
.1 331
.1933
.1472
.Cf-76
.14fl7
.1191
. 1 ' .1 -5
.?G93
. u? jO
,12i»8.
.1 ?'».<
.0969
In"
!l113
. 1J11
.'142'
.iiqj
.lifts
. 0 F 0 4
100.
?fi.
139.
7
-------
..Vfll.1.1
1-37?
PRODUCT
tf!TT or
TOTfll
1 P7?
VALUC RAT"
full t. )
1967
GfTOHTH
V1LUE RATE
fMTL ? 1 . _ _
1963
VALUE
(MIL 5.
C,t?OWTM
SATE
t
JL953
VALUE
..tHIL_S__
2?51f> "«1
213S.3
??!.£, «M
23t95 7-7
7*<2 91
7A'",, , 77
21915 93
?»t;i7 LI
-,- ,?»«< 11 ?"
2S3t<. 79
2P312 21
283=.? 21
2fti.w? 9^
2" 3-1 21.
? J" i 7 i 3 '
2(?215 91
2 ? 1 3 99
-25 ; 4 & 92
HILLTOP GAL
IT! (ION n"t
"ILLION H 0 L
MILLION nOL
-1ILLTTN rOL
ncMi^^n rnvr
MI LLT JN (~,AL
1 I H T 1 >. L IS
THOIIMNQ TOMS
'IT 1 IT i'j n«i
1ILLITI G*l.
MTU IIS r, A i
MILL:, vi nJ f,AL
11 LLT3N r-AL
_ MT n -, n« r.At
THTlJSANn TINS
«I LLiCM 1 P.r,
"ILLION "OL
::ii i i-,,'! nn ,.,
THPUS UN-IT?:
VI LLI^K OOL
"ILL'.-JN GflL
MILLION "CL
VILL10N- "PL
TMOUS°U:4T?S
*; LLI IN OfL
T^OU' 'i'li'J TO'I*1
^1 LL I IN L RS
_ "ILL1JN *C<
.1170
. 1 t F r;
. 1 ' 51
.1131.
. 1130
.1131
. 1131
.11??
. 1 1 1 t.
.117?
.1112
., . 1 If 1
.109?
.11,"?
.. ..15*9
. 13 't
. 1 -l fl c
.1D67
. to7-»
. 1 r, K
. 1 J '* 1
. 1 " u b
.1037
.It- :.?
. 1 .i .'.
. 1C2?
. i : j s
. ICl",
. . 1997
. J991
.0^77
. 0982
. [ "7R
1,3.3
q.u
3"! .9
^9.9
22.8
1 q.«
31 .2
132.1
23.9
r, 7 . f ,
16.6
2.3
95.6
9. J
?a .1
12. C
2R9.1
9.3
15.1
35
"«.1
f .1.
1.1.. 1
81.1
161.5 .n
, . 29.5 .
7f,.?
. 11.6
16C .*
H.K.5
71,. 7
- .5,1.._
??.r
.0983
. r. 7 3 3
.1298
.u297
.1552
. 1 .- 7 ^
.1131
. 3R91
.11 1 f,
.1122
.u':53
.1390
.21.??
. UC85
.0283
. . o a * q
.C971
.0907
. u C 6 6
.0371
.L79,
.1F1.3
!??n^
.1359
- . C i* 2 3
.1C10
.1156
.i)97T
.!?«
27.1
207.5
9. r.
19.7
13. q
15.5
1P.F,
77.3
17.3
15.6
ll'.r
19.1*
6fl . 8
1.2
1.8.5
5.7
9.5
11.5
116,9
251.1.
9.5
?«. 7
2.7
12.3
17.6
(..Q
7.G
?!. . 7
S3. 9
3li . 1
'7.?
lfli.5.7
10 .9
1.0.3
1<* .1.
99.1
?3.2
-------
1Q7?
PRODUCT
ponr
i;MtT r>F
_ TflTflL
GROWTH
197?
VALUr
( M T I *
ronHTH
PATE
»
tqf.7
VALUE
fMTl * 1
r.enuTH
19«,3
VALUE
(MTL $ 1
C.POWTH
RATE
IO^B
VALUe
tHIL_S
281,23
HKl
""a
1^11
25518
"'_'?
26111
2J3U6
"°o*
a, *^j-
28107
""a
2 !) Q 3 5
2 P. 1 9 u
^LU*
2M.--.5
2&I.'."
2891 '
23^
2bt<*
2P.7;.?
211.1.1
9 R 1 ^ O
21211.
?«'»..^
71
21
?\
9n
21
77
f>q
35
21
;;
2j
fi5
13
1.3
6T , ..
;;
U7
j^_
71
fcl -. ...
37
21
.1-3
h'T ( 1 T 1\ C'flL
MILLION ML
*TU T^v I f"!
T i | T i\ nn| ,
MILLION' aOL
s.i< i m" r.si
MI LLIJ*; r.flL
Hi L I-JN nni
BILLION \."^.
Til ION noi
T-UilJjANQ TO'lf.
THOUSAND TOM?;..,
MILLION ML
-IILLTTK' DOL
MILLION LriS
mijOK i qs
MIL Ctl CT
TMnur-'.^n TOST.
II LLJ'IV OOL
THOU'SAN'O TOMS.
Trinus UNiTr;
'IT 1 1 TO" nm
*'ILLI-N nOL
II L- l"K L^l
THOUTSV-JO Tons
.'JILL? 0^. DHL
VI LLI IN npL
THOUS (I'lTTI
."I LLI ON DOL...
Ill LLJ->N HOI
11 LLIOV LHS
n 1 1 i >!« mi.
MILLION LDS
"I LL 11 M L RS
THo'.lj UNITS ... .
THn'iriMi TOMS
;MLi.irit. noi
,';ILUO*I SL
THOUS S-»0 TOK'.S
THOUSA'IO.-.TOMS
tILI. I')s- L^S
MILL!?'1 POL
*?q"ft
"n97^
.0971
!.!9ftq
.^a"
'.'.III
~<^J7
"isls
Inq^i
.J91.1
.093'
!r.T17
. rq??
! Mqi^
. 'J n n £
. u T. 7
._ . J 1 4fl
. -3891
. C S9?
. - .. "1^9
.0 = 9?
1'^rtfc
. 1875
. ? .1 7 u
. jfif-r-
11,. 1
29.2
ftR-R
77.0
52. C..
22.2
lf-7.it
R.7
7.1
588.3
3f,.l
U.5
52.3
71 .ft
37.2
1M.2
ir,-.i,8
65.0
_ . 16.9
1Q50.B
3C.6
.. .. 11.2
2-^.i.
21.J.R
21.5.
i.t .1
Ul .f)
837.1
,. . 4! .7
.1 1.9.R
.0366
-1C^7
.1 r ii.
. o 365
.f 755
.2526
!r-q^i
.1 feifi
.at 96
!M.W
"!,°M6
!??S8
.Of-i.0
!sq"
!i?"
.0775
,CC 19
,1335
. u 655
!ii8^
-.0 389
!lfc7P
">lr2^
.C875 . .
.0179
. 1 2 1.
_.. .11-56
11.9
111. 8 .
21.. I,
UR'H
33.6
7.2
15 .f,
111.. 8
827.3
^ .3
1.2G .2
86.2
39.1
3f .9
31. 5
i . e
18.7
22.1.
At . f
80.1
1137.1
lu.l
771. ft
19.9
115.it.
5.0
i n, q
65.1
?c .q
272. 8
3... 7
178. R
1 1. . 2
3 !. It . 8
.0723
-.0155
.13^1
.151C
.20C8
.-qrn
,13»5
-.0878
.1168
.0863
. 7 1 q
.1285
.C953
.L971
.1165
.1106
.CB71.
.0339
-.0663
.1271,
.071.6
.1235
:Ji^3
.2839
.C2flO
.0683
.0521,
.2737
.1975 _
.1580
.0957
.2Pul.
12G3
.1525
.0336
.uf-72
9.0
26.6
.->!. q
2C .0
?6. 1
10 .<»
5.1,
73.8
3 .R
59<. . 0
2 .5
259.1
18.9
59 . 5
25.7
22.1
17.5
1 .u
2i». 6
32 ,5
16.8
61* .7
755.8
23.7
8. 7
592 .7
1 1 P . i,
1 .9
36.2
1 it. 5
108.1
?' .q
ill .1
20 .S
26 .2
U2G. 0
.3.2
. 1761
. 11, 3 1
,1238
.C207
.127C
.1126
.C126
.1206
.1J23
.01,56
.0737
.1615
.1650
. 011.9
.101,0
. 0601
flf.03
.0<,19
.131,2
.0928
.1008
.0820
.1090
.15G5
t,.0
77-8
7.9
ifl-/
35.3
11.0
6.1
u.r,
i»5.7
365.0
?fO
J^.R
8.6
10.3
1.3
is. a
16.0
qt-.ft
19.3
315.3
22.1.
17. ft
71,. 9 ,
12.1. :
13,0 *
-------
vain- nr SHTPHJMT<; ftp ponniirrg
PPOOUCT
.1967 G?OHn
VALUE RATE
..IMIL..S- ) -
GROWTH i
VALUE RATE VALUE
$.) ... . _ tMIL_S_
2K.11 ul
2*123 C3
?». l i? t,s
? 6 3 :. o 11
28r>;!5 It
2Jji.ll 13
2*213 ei
f 2fli.?3 n-
cr. .26516 51 .
21612 5?
. 261q9 Cl.
281.13 93
2*516 .1.0
287-K Iv
22199 1"!
?ft3_? 7/
2*31.3 11
23519 --
> «1 09 --
2el99 C3
20-1-. 5 85
2S99* 23
. . 2*211 fc5 .
> " 1 :, - 17
>4I LLl'.IN L"S
MILLTO' TIL
MILLION HOL
TMOUSii ^-'H TOMS
THouc^^lO TO^IS
'!ILL !.'' L"?
-UL:OV nc-L
.. MILLTON OOL
ULIIIN ->r.i.
.. TUIII J-n rns-:
-."°
. DSb8
. 3.155
. D « -j 7
.'SJJa
. J152
, Q ^ Q
Q .*J t| H
.0339
.-31?5
. C 832
.1829
. r 91 q
!"*17
.u91f.
. v> 1 1 1
.->8f.l
. ; i o i
. ; 795
.077«
.3781.
. 077C
.078!i
. J 765
. P7F?
. - 7 (. 7
7.2
11 .9
1.59.7
719.9
12.2
59.8
28.1
.-I*. 9
13.3
f,F,.?
1P.J
25.9
23.9
. E81.C-
1.3.7
11.6
9.0
1Q.5
3l!l
15.6
177.t,
El .8
18.8
17.1,
1.8
3'.3.5
31..9
2..''
£5C .2
7.5
1579.°
39. f-.
1.1.3
71.:
7 7 » . 3
1.5.7
..213',... _
,1153
. .1 P 5 7
.'1^9
'J?1?
.3t 15
,0930
,0379
.2120
.0626
-.0175
.C919
,0116
".'"1?
.1807
^ 0 **^ 1
.'Jw6
!L'P^
.Q777
-nt.5
.'f^S
.li/27
-.0932
.0758
.1-11.
.l'7H
- JL1 .3
315.1
2*2.3
U17.Q
1.2.3
37. o
15.9
2 '9.1
t.5.3
6^.7
6.5
se.i.
21.5
9.1
557.1
3*1 .1,
70 . fl
7.S
3C.1
l4» .S
5.8
13.?
69.3
18.3
>i .n
f>.8
1?L .3
31.5
li. .9
12.1
1.2
2.35.b
?7.g
11 5. n
...... 191.fi.
1 1 '.f,.l
nb. K
1 1 "* 1
12. 7
?«..?
q . 5
:D05S5
.1197
.U855
.0265
.0??!
.ogsi,
.lCi.9
.1998
.2132
. fll
!n"g
.31.37
.OC5J
... .C707..
.2221
.f ui,3...
.31 u 7
,1391,
-.OK.2
.12C3
.fl7t.F,
.35-50
.m 73 ._
.0373
.0393
..liSS .
. K. u?
. 11 C8
.3P.2L
.,-,375
9. 3
22C .5
IPft.f,
171.. 5
38.1
_ . . 26.1. . _
13.8
3C.W
31.7
3.0
1C .«
12.5
11. 0
1.37.1,
213.1
21.1.
29.5
36.9
2.6
.11.1
321.5
7.2
2C.O
9.1.
8.7
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19C.2
71..0
21.. 1
1.2
127.7
3.9
770 .9
lfa.5
71. . 3
36.8
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.0695
.01.97
.0833
.C669
-.C128
.0293
.0739
.1007
.11.95
-.C292
'"91.
.1592
.C672
-.C037
.1015
. GS77
.C91.5
. P671
. J319
. f (.0 T
. i r i. r.
3.7
11,3.3
100.9
25.3
_ 19,1
3.2
26.7
7,7
273.7
H,. 7
3.3
6.5
6,5
151.6
5.2
21. D
117.3
15.9
12.0
0.9
557.'
11.. 1 .
5..1
-------
OF p,->r)nijpT<
JLOT.AI 15.72 GP.OW.TH 1QF.7 i-.POWTH 1961 GROWTH
Pionuci ^r'.su^i' GROWTH VILUF tjuf, J5 ''ILLT1N ni}L .j7".l 33.? .=5°."55 22.7 .C625 17.5
ZsSl". S9 ".ILLI-H'' T-3L . C-7..5 10.5 .0393 8.7 .1215 5.5
_2C9.-i ...965 _, 131.9 -_. J251 11.6.0 .1371 76. 8_.
2*163 27 TMC!U5A:l') T0'!f .J7?c n.,2 .1961 5.8 -.0125 &.1 .0285 5.3
.2P3W1 35 . V.ILLION OC1 _. .5.'31 JLfc.6 .1.3*7 1*.L .1231 . 8.3
ii.i.5 1.1 THl'ji U'.'TTT , 37.7C 119.9 .0682 86.2 .:t9i. 65.9
23-5LC
n*r?
?P7M
2 ! ? * c
f ? ft. «.'
? i n '
2^.31.1
?"u*
2^1°
"f«7n!
2 -TV?
« - ':.- 7
2i'«'.S
1 7
1L_
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2-S
11
51
oi
31
71
01
1 S
r i
i.-iui; -i,
?«<.,'> IA
2«r.ij
267-J3
2S199
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"31I
2S199
7l"
1 5
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'T 1 1 'nv: r.ii
'I '.LT T: '.IS
"T LLIOS nf'l
11 LLITN ^OL
MT 1 1 MM noi
1 T 1 ) I O > n O '
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ir i ' IOK not
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il ti I-TK not
MI u 10-. \_r*.
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MILLTON nOL
.. - '.'I LLIT*: "TL.
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T-ir.j- ii-.-TT-
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T^Oll'.StQ IPtJ?
VT 1 1 13S TCL
II LI. t ON net
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.0715
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... .C',71
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f-?-*^.
192.6
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t. .f, ,
331.9
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ii.2- .C-
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1.I..9
392.9
111.'1
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1? 1 . ',
36.2
1-.8
i..9
. r 7 f 1 3
.1133
.r7?q
-. >i655
.31,76
-.n 7?
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1 Q£ 7
VALUE
CMIL 3_)
1 .7
5.3
<-<» . 1
426.0
f>.6
18.6
1.1
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224.7
f,Tffc
16. 4
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RATE
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VALUE
(MIL S J
1.1
53. 3
3.6
17.1
S.4
25.6
11 .4
13.1
1.7
17.3
227.3
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249.8
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"50DUCT ~.zt.Z(.l0.-
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VALUE
.CKIL -*_>-
RATE
_J.Q£,Z
VALUE
. CHIL_S_
-GRDHTH-
?ATE '
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VALUE RATE
.(MIL .S. .> ._
VALUE
_(MIL_S_.
. _ .2R731
2"752
9t 1 77
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1977 ilf.'TT or T1XAI
JCT
SSASUrf- G90WTH
RA.TE
1.9.7,
VAL
(MI
?
Ui
L. S.
GROWTH
1967
VALUE
(MIL.*. J
KOOHTH
-PATE
1
J.953
VALUE
(MIL $
GROWTH
RATE
JL958
VALUE
(HIL_5
. 2-344
21121.
'ft '1 f,
2*347
2^73
a^is
2*f 11
2fi.l1
p45l.lt
cn pxc c
28444
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28731
28211
21197
23311
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9J
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go
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MILL I IK "rtL T.
MT 1 1 UK I.".*"
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''ILLIJ1'! DOL - -.
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THQU7AMCL TONS. -.
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THOlJ r3 UMp 1 71 f*S *
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iTi . MM i n<;
. MILLION OCL.... . r.
MILLION GftL
MI|Ll^NLR5
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"I i ( ION nr.l
'II LLiO.V L"^
lILi ion i q
-------
APPENDIX C
FUTURE GROWTH OF PRODUCT
-------
TABLE C-l. FUTURE GROWTH OF PRODUCT BY SECTOR
Sector
Number
3.01
3.02
3.03
3.04
3.05
3.06
3.07
3.08
3.09
3.10
4.01
4.02
4.03
4.04
4.05
4.06
4.07
4.08
5.01
5.02
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.03
5.04
SIC Number
2011-2099
21110-2141-
3111-31210
31310-31990
2211-2284
22710-22790
22910-2299-
2251-22590
2311-2389
23910-23990
2421-24290
2432
2411
2441-24450
2511-25190
25210-25990
2611-2661
26510-2655-
2911-29990
29510-2952-
2812
2813
28J5
2816
2818
2819
2871
Annual Rates
of Change
Sector Name* 1970-1985
Food and Kindred Products
Tobacco Manufactures
Leather Tanning and Industrial Leather
Products
Footwear and Other Leather Products
Fabrics and Yarns and Thread
Soft Floor Coverings
Tire Cord and Miscellaneous Textile
Goods
Knitted Apparel
Apparel made from purchased materials
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile
Products
Sawmills and Planing Mills
Veneer and Plywood
Other Lumber and Wood Products
Wooden Containers
Household Furniture
Other Furniture and Fixtures, N.E.C.
Pulp and Paper and Paper Products
Paperboard Containers and Boxes
Petroleum Refining and Related Products
Paving Mixtures and Asphalt Products
Alkalies and Chlorine
Industrial Gases
Cyclic Intermediates and Crudes
Inorganic Pigments
Industrial Organic Chemicals
Industrial Inorganic Chemicals
Fertilizers
2.81
2.69
2.36
2.72
2.76
3.87
3.44
3.59
3.39
3.54
2.09
3.97
3.74
2.86
3.05
3.77
3.43
3.65
3.21
5.52
3.00
3.83
4.69
3.49
3.67
3.33
4.08
C-2
-------
TABLE C-l. (Continued)
Sector
Number
5.04
5.05
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.06
5.07
5.07
5.08
5.0J
5.09
5.09
5.09
5.10
5.10
5.10
5.11
5.12
5.13
5.14
5.15
6.01
6.02
6.03
6.04
7.01
8.01
SIC Number
28722
28790
2861
2891
28921
28930
28950
2899
2821
28220
2823
2824
2831
2833
2834
2841
2842
28430
2844
2851
3011
30210-3069
3079-
3211-3231
32410-3275
3251-32970
3281-32990
3312-3391
34110
Sector Name*
Fertilizers, Mixing Only
Agricultural Chemicals, except
Fertilizers
Gum and Wood Chemicals
Adhesives and Gelatin
Explosives, except Government- owned
Printing Ink
Carbon Black
Chemical Preparations, N.E.C.
Plastics Materials and Resins
Synthetic Rubber
Cellulosic Man-made Fibers
Organic Fibers, Noncellulosic
Biological Products
Medicinals and Botanicals
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Soap and Other Detergents
Polishes and Sanitation Goods
Surface Active and Finishing Agents
Toilet Preparations
Paints and Allied Products
Tires and Inner Tubes
All Other Rubber Products
Manufactured Plastic Products
Glass and Glass Products
Hydraulic Cement and Lime and Gypsum
Products
None lay Refractories
Other Stone and Norunetallic Mineral
Products
Primary Iron and Steel
Metal Cans
Annual Rates
of Change
1970-1985
3.90
3.99
3.81
4.20
3.23
3.96
4.30
4.34
4.59
3.87
3.12
5.50
5.08
3.44
2.88
2.92
3.91
3.92
3.23
3.27
3.36
4.17
5.34
3.64
4.02
4.59
3.72
3.05
2.72
C-3
-------
TABLE C-l. (Continued)
Sector
Number
8.02
8.03
8.04
8.05
8.06
8.07
9.01
9.02
9.03
10.01
10.02
10.03
10.04
10.05
10.06
10.07
10.08
11.01
11.02
11.03
11.04
11.05
12.01
12.02
12.03
12.04
12.05
12.06
12.07
SIC Number
3491
34310-34320
3433
3441-3449
34510-3461
3421-3499-0
3511-3519
3561-35690
3599
3522
3531
3532
3533
35340-3536
35370
3541-3548
3551-3559
3711-37150
3721-3729
3731-3732
3741-3742
37510-3799
3611
3621
3612-3629
36410
3642-3644
3671-3679
3691-3699
Sector Name*
Metal Barrels and Drums and Fails
Metal Sanitary Ware and Plumbing
Fittings
Nonelectric Heating Equipment
Fabricated Structural Metal Products
Screw Machine Products and Stamping,
Other Fabricated Metal Products
Engines and Turbines
General Industrial Machinery and
Equipment
Machine Shop Products
Farm Machinery
Construction Machinery
Mining Machinery
Oil Field Machinery
Materials Handling and Machinery
Industrial Trucks and Tractors
Metalworking Machinery
Special Industry Machinery
Motor Vehicles and Parts
Aircraft and Parts
Ship and Boat Building and Repair
Locomotives and Rail and Streetcars
Motorcycles and Bicycles and Trailer
Coaches
Electrical Measuring Instruments
Electric Motors and Generators
Industrial Controls and Transformers
Electric Lamps
Lighting Fixtures and Wiring Devices
Electronic Components and Accessories
Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery
Annual Rates
of Change
1970-1985
3.44
3.35
4.31
3.80
etc. 3.65
3.09
3.54
3.74
3.67
3.57
3.89
3.50
4.52
5.95
3.53
3.81
3.63
3.28
3.32
2.87
3.66
3.49
3.85
3.88
5.11
4.11
4.48
3.42
and Equipment
CM
3.59
-------
TABLE C-l. (Continued)
Sector
Number
13.01
13.02
13.03
SIC Number
3581-3589
3631-3639
3651-3662
Sector Name*
Service Industry Machinery
Household Applicances
Radio and TV and Communication
Annual Rates
of Change
1970-1985
4.06
2.83
Equipment 3.27
14.01 3811-3822 Scientific Instruments and Measures
and Controls 4.23
14.02 38410-38430 Medical and Surgical and Dental Instru-
14.03
14.04
14.05
15.01
15.02
16.01
16.02
3871-38720
3831-3851
3861
3571
35720-3579
19110-19990
3911-3999
ments and Supplies
Watches and Clocks and Parts
Optical and Opthalmic Goods
Photographic Equipment and Supplies
Computing and Related Machines
All Other Office and Business Machines
Ordnance and Accessories
Other Miscellaneous Products
4.00
1.97
3.26
3.82
3.67
3.80
2.78
3.50
* Sectors 5.03 to 5.12 (SIC group 28) are specified in greater detail
because of their usage in calculation of the composite index for
major group 28.
Source: PREVIEWS 85 program output.
C-5
-------
APPENDIX D
AN ALTERNATIVE DISPERSION INDEX
The alternative index is made up of two parts that have a
multiplicative relationship:
I. = A. X B. .
111
The first part (A) measures the overall degree to which products of a
subject sector enter into other products. The second part (B) corrects
that measurement for the relative frequency with which other sectors
depend on the sector in question. The derivation and meaning of these
two elements is discussed below.
A.: The Overall Measure
The degree to which a given row sector's output reaches final
demand through the output of a given column-sector is a function of the
inverse coefficient. When the inverse matrix (I-A) is multiplied by
the final demand vector (D), these relationships are quantified in terms
of dollar values. Total output of the row-sector (TO.) is the row-sum of
these values, and measures the value of output that must be produced and
sold within the economy for every sector to satisfy its own final demand.
In the context of this study, whether or not productive personnel
in other sectors or consumers of other sectors' output are actually exposed
to the given sectors' output depends on whether the output of the subject
sector and many of the intermediate linking sectors are goods or services.
To the extent that they are services, physical exposures cannot occur. No
effort has been made to correct for this fact. The overall measure (A)
is established as follows: _,_
A. =
ETO.
i
i
-------
B = The Correction Factor
i
Exposure to sector output is also a function of (1) the number
of nonzero cells on that sector's row in the inverse matrix, and (2)
whether or not those values are large or small. This is to say that a
single large value on a given row with many zero values would imply less
exposure than would a. large number of moderate-sized cells. To correct
for this, we make B. a function of the number of nonzero cells (n) as a
proportion of the total number of cells (N) on one row of the inverse
matrix. The simplest expression of this relationship is:
BJ" = n/N .
However, to reduce the range of variation the following form was adopted:
B^' = L/log N/n .
If N = n, this fraction would lead to an anomaly. Therefore the ratio
was restated:
.,, 1.. N+l,
B!^ = /log /n .
And, to eliminate variations in the ratio because of trivial eel values
we redefined n:
B..^ = L/log N+1/n, where n ^ .0001 .
Calculations for this index have been made for a variety of
values of n. Results are reported for a representative value, n = 0.001,
because it provides a good range of values for B.. The results of this
calculation are presented in Table D-l and may be incorporated into the
overall calculation of the ranking index as time and funds permit.
D-2
-------
TABLE D-l. TOP 25 INDUSTRIAL SECTORS CALCULATED
USING THE ALTERNATIVE DISPERSION INDEX
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Sector
Number
20.01
3.01
20,02
11.01
20.03
20.05
19.05
21.08
5.01
1.01
7.01
1.02
18.02
18.01
20.04
17.03
18.03
21.01
21.04
17.01
2.06
4.07
5.03
13.03
21.05
Sector Name
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Food and Kindred Products
Finance and Insurance
Motor Vehicles and Parts
Real Estate and Rental
Other Business and Professional Services
Maintenance and Repair Construction
Educational Services and Nonprofit
Organizations
Petroleum Refining and Related Products
Livestock and Livestock Products
Primary Iron and Steel
Field and Orchard Crops
Electric Power
Telecommunications
Advertising
Motor Freight and Warehouse
Gas
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Personal and Repair Services except Cars
Railroads and Related Services
Stone and Clay Mining
Pulp and Paper Products except Containers
Industrial Inorganic and Organic
Chemicals
Radio and TV Communication Equipment
Automobile Repair and Services
Dispersion
Index
7.30754
4.64971
3.19617
2.84397
2.79096
1.60040
1.58006
1.51473
1.19114
1.16835
1,08785
1.06884
1.04966
0.97066
0.96139
0.81997
0.69152
0.65928
0.63705
0.62623
0.62251
0.62006
0.55931
0.55725
0.53242
Source: Battelle calculations.
D-3
-------
APPENDIX E
STRUCTURAL CHANGE INDICES
-------
TABLE E-l. STRUCTURAL CHANGE INDICES BY SECTOR
Sector
Number
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
3.01
3.02
3.03
3.04
3.05
3.06
3.07
3.08
3.09
3.10
4.01
4.02
4.03
4.04
4.05
4.06
4.07
4.08
Technical
Sector Name Change Index
Livestock and Livestock Products
Field and Orchard Crops
Forestry and Fishery Products
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery Services
Iron and Ferroalloys Ores
Copper Ores
Nonferrous Ores, except Copper
Coal Mining
Crude Petrol and Natural Gas
Stone and Clay Mining
Chemical and Fertilizer Minerals
Food and Kindred Products
Tobacco Manufactures
Leather Tanning and Industrial Leather
Products
Footwear and Leather Products
Fabrics, Yarns, and Threads
Soft Floor Coverings
Tire Cord and Miscellaneous Textile Goods
Knitted Apparel
Apparel from purchased material
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Sawmills and Planing Mills
Veneer and Plywood
Lumber and Wood Products except Containers
Wooden Containers
Household Furniture
Other Furniture and Fixtures
Pulp and Paper Products except Containers
Paperboard Containers and Boxes
.002708
.001450
.012560
.010354
.006959
.000933
.005985
.004156
.010227
.005057
.000832
.002084
.004799
.002357
.003084
.007304
.006704
.007989
.001653
.003243
.003628
.010340
.008928
.007825
.005507
.004928
.002407
.002124
.003051
Kendall
Coef ficienc
.9840
.9901
.9846
.9923
.9262
.9864
.9936
.9745
.9786
.9710
.9916
.9712
.9818
.9781
.9771
.9793
.9685
.9448
.9771
.9668
.9874
.9277
.9695
.9285
.9888
.9733
.9514
.9779
.9740
E-2
-------
TABLE E-l . (Continued)
Sector
Number
5.01
5.02
5.03
5. 04
5.05
5.06
5.07
5.08
5.09
5.10
5.11
5.12
5.13
5.14
5.15
6.01
6.02
6.03
6.04
7.01
7.02
7.03
7.04
8.01
8.02
8.03
8.04
8.05
8.06
8.07
9.01
Technical
Sector Name Change Index
Petroleum Refining and Related Products
Paving Mix and Asphalt Products
Industrial Inorganic and Organic Chemicals
Fertilizers
Agricultural Chemicals except Fertilizers
Miscellaneous Chemical Products
Plastics Materials and Resins
Organic Man-made Fibers
Drugs
Cleaning Preparations
Toilet Preparations
Paints and Allied Products
Tires and Inner Tubes
Other Rubber Products
Manufacturing Plastics Products
Glass and Glass Products
Cement and Lime and Gypsum Products
Clay and Cement Products and Refractories
Other Nonmetal Mineral Products
Primary Iron and Steel
Primary Copper
Primary Aluminum
Other Primary Nonferrous Metals
Metal Cans
Metal Barrels, Drums, and Pails
Metal Sanitation and Plumbing Products
Nonelectric Heating Equipment
Fabricated Structural Metal Products
Screw Machine Products and Stamping
Other Fabricated Metal Products
Engines and Turbines
.002088
.011441
.004832
.002467
.005966
.004529
.005263
.010021
.005195
.002725
.000875
.002160
.002028
.002548
.003070
.001556
.002827
.001653
.010575
.002320
.000939
,003790
.003934
.002401
.001203
,000273
.007272
.001426
.002136
.002587
.001744
Kendall
Coefficient
.9949
.9344
.9749
.9878
.9678
.9749
.9621
.9622
.9862
.9729
.9769
.9837
.9895
.9677
.9913
.9794
.9541
.9702
.9461
.9815
.9734
.9914
.9971
.9922
.9972
.9882
.9405
.9604
.9827
.9744
.9706
E-3
-------
TABLE E-l. (Continued)
Sector
Number
9.02
9.03
10.01
10.02
10.03
10.04
10.05
10.06
10.07
10.08
11.01
11.02
11.03
11.04
11.05
12.01
12.02
12.03
12.04
12.05
12.06
12.07
13.01
13.02
13.03
14.01
14.02
14.03
14.04
14.05
15.01
Technical
Sector Name Change Index
General Industrial Machinery and Equipment
Machine Shop Products
Farm Machinery
Construction Machinery
Mining Machinery
Oil Field Machinery
Material Handling Machinery except Trucks
Industrial Trucks and Tractors
Metalworking Machinery
Special Industry Machinery
Motor Vehicles and Parts
Aircraft and Parts
Ship and Boat Building and Repairs
Locomotives and Rail and Streetcars
Cycles, Trailers, etc.
Electric Measuring Instruments
Electric Motors and Generators
Industrial Controls, etc.
Electric Lamps
Light Fixtures and Wiring Devices
Electronic Components and Accessories
Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery
Service Industry Machinery
Household Appliances
Radio, TV, and Communication Equipment
Scientific Instruments, etc.
Medical, Surgical, and Dental Instruments
Watches, Clocks, and Parts
Optical and Opthalmic Goods
Photographic Equipment and Supplies
Computing and Related Machines
.000978
.004282
.009752
.001844
.003022
.008979
.003486
.001617
.002833
.005170
.001298
.007528
.005925
.003751
.008605
.003192
.003912
.002051
.001236
.006356
.003544
.002589
.002761
.003273
.002692
.012093
.004601
.010322
.002581
.002528
.005817
Kendall
Coe t't'ic ier.t
.9854
.9696
.9763
.9908
.9899
.9453
.9798
.9872
.9760
.9724
.9701
.9403
.9409
.9443
.9267
.9466
.9830
.9510
.9952
.9779
.9320
.9613
.9684
.9720
.9640
.9812
.8912
.9442
.9796
.9914
.9851
E-4
-------
TABLE E-l. (Continued)
Sector
Number
15.02
15.03
16.01
16.02
17.01
17.02
17.03
17.04
17.05
17.06
17.07
18.01
18.02
18.03
18.04
19.01
19.02
19.03
19.04
19.05
20.01
20.02
20.03
20.04
20.05
20.06
21.01
21.02
21.03
21.04
21.05
Technical
Sector Name change Index
Other Office and Business Machines
Office Supplies
Ordnance and Accessories
Other Miscellaneous Products
Railroads and Related Services
Local and Highway Passenger Transport
Motor Freight and Warehouse
Water Transportation
Air Transport
Pipelines
Transportation Services
Telecommunications
Electric Power
Gas
Water and Sanitary Services
New Construction, Nonfarm Residential
New Construction, Nonresidential Buildings
New Construction, Public Utilities
New Construction, Highways and Other
Maintenance and Repair Construction
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental
Advertising
Other Business and Professional Services
Business Travel, Entertainment, and Gifts
Printing and Publishing
Radio and TV Broadcasting
Hotels and Lodging Places
Personal and Repair Services, except Cars
Automobile Repair and Service
.003380
.003049
.005265
.001002
.004544
.007280
.006702
.004165
.003787
.001872
.004480
.003763
.001844
.003209
.002901
.00243V
.009741
.003575
.001303
.003110
.002060
.002314
.001031
.002779
.001528
.003557
.001377
.003656
.013158
.003131
.003122
Kendall
Coef £ ic lent
.9831
.9989
.9695
.9761
.9354
.9704
.9474
.9425
.9806
.9611
.9804
.9842
.9980
.9354
.9775
.9286
.9570
.9855
.9880
.9766
.9857
.9968
.9814
.9899
.9872
.9775
.9879
.9702
.9975
.9223
.9611
E-5
-------
TABLE E-l . (Continued)
Sector
Number
21.06
21.07
21.08
22.01
23.01
Sector Name
Amusements
Medical and Health Services
Educational Services and Nonprofit
Organizations
Post Office
Import Noncompetitive Products
Technical
Change Index
.001733
.002418
.003383
.003142
.000000
Kendall
Coefficient
.9872
.9680
.9699
.9820
1.0000
Source: Battelie estimates.
E-6
-------
APPENDIX F
COMPOSITE PRODUCT RANKING
-------
pnr.Eooi
2.9:o
MTSTCPirai
UN w- H T 0
2.43C
RJTU'r G90WTH
Z.3&G 1.35G
OfSPERSTO.N
UHHGHT"O WEIGHTED "~ iiHHGHTo
1.131
. - '
HEIGHTgh UNWGHTtT
VALUE
WEIGHTED UNWGHTO
? . << 3 H 15 0
.86255
2."ii3.10l'
i«354li_
l".'5 8593
1 .?Cf5_
1.0GUG
.3549
. 71234
.3C18
«5572_
.6526
l.COGO
,71234 ,3018
2, 360 CO 1'P.CPJL
~ .~7123
.0373
".2912"
_. 0739
.Oftlt"
^Ollt,
.001
,C779
'.0083
,C186
"^0108"
.1227_
,0096
,036?
.OZD
. 00911.
,on-i
',035!'
, OUJ01
-l"17'2.
.ociro
_,om
Icn??
",6e.ii
JdlQ?
".0631;!)
.02/35
.0091.5
V 1)131"
,3i n
>oon
-------
COMPOSITE "PQQUCT
PAGE002
2.360
GROWTH
UrfWHT 0
WEIGHTED UNHGHTO
1.35&
0 ISPE3S TO N
WFTGH~TED ~'UNVG~HTO
1. 130
TE CHNI CA U__CH AN Of
HtlGHTEO" UMMGHTO
VALUE
. 3!. 3 2
.5572
2.36000
i. 6COO
53151
,3989
.0126
! ol
28791- --
"?8913"V8
2879«. If
?
-------
COMPOSITE PQQDUCT RANKING
PAGE003
w.TGHTS
PRODUCT C'.JH" TMO"*
2.900
vTSTO'ICflU P,OC
.._!!I"If:L.---:
2
>HTH
INTO H
.<< 3.1
FIITUS1:
tIGHTtO
GROWTH
2.
3bU
UNHGHTO
1.35C
DISPERSION
WEIGHTED
UNHGHTO
1.130
TECHNICAL CHANGE
HcIGHT£0 UNHGHTO
VALUE
HEIGHTEO
UNHGHTO
28; ..Jl-r"
01 1..91P97
li. < . 911 C3
99 4. q ::.rt;
- 4* .'"9 14
12 t>.i.»<;72
19 -, . <"1 1 ' 0
I, , ««><!;
IT 4.171.145
?? » . d 7 1 if
31 i,. 1*711
3 <. i. . .1 f '> c. f
-- u'.ir>78
9* t'."*«?
11 *. 8«:i?'i
11 u. fl 19 03
19
-------
COMPOSITE PPQOUCT RANKING
<'iI'".HTc. 3.91? 2.43' 2.360 l«35t 1.130
poonurr ^o-ip tf/ncy HISTORICAL n^owiM n)Tii?? i.9
3! 4.6c.'i.l
11 u'.'siul
93 t'fciitv
it t!*";c
?S 4:o3395
"" '*'f?'L,, 4 6
11 ',.5371')
-- t:'^
1. 1 4 . ri ! 7 7 4
" * ' 4 . 5 '. f- 5 7
il ' 4.5,Jf.-r '
1 « . i » 7 7
1 . lt.774
r.ll7H8
1.3-.1U2
1 . 1 9 «3 3
'."75!
1 . ^19! H
i!xn?'
1 . 1'i6»5
. « T 1 1 3
1 .21110
.87704
'.!«'?
1.1131.'.
1 . 1 . 9 3 <-,
i. :.:.!??
lio^Ji
1 . ? J 5 7 3
1.02934
. 9 7 ", r. f>
1.'5«S
1. tlil*.? '
1.11517
1 . u 3 7? c
. 9 73'; .
. 99(104
1. 17233
.'V2?5
^^M"
.17131
. 'J-'il.; 0
. 4r ?6
.2:25
!4:97
'.l"|
. R-)o 2
.3?9f.
..1593
. 392 1
. ? 9 6 9
!3'26
'. ?'.4 1-
. 3 3 1 .3
. ?" '( 7
.4318
.3743
. 4? 3 9
..37? 7
.4192
. 3'. 1 7
. 35=»6
. '396
.='? 1
. m 2 i '
.'3-; 7 7 "
.3511*
.3316
. .34 43
. 4 : 4 2
.311?
.3467
'3''»P
. 31* * 7
. 9i.6i.; 2
1!ofc6"
'.5f.S75
l'.0?9U9
.88109
.41735
.41735
! B« lHq
. 41 7.35
. *( 855
.9-.602
.4 17.i 5
.f.6575
.5F.575
.41735
. 56575
.1.177,5
. 5^575
!q"SI
".41725
r 5P575
.91-6:2
'Alll?
.<-,( 575
» 5S575
. 91.602
!^!l/J5
.91.602 '
!*C575
.41735
. 9U 6 "'2
. C(. 575
.3893
'.399.3
.1717
.3549
. 36i-'5
.3893
.1717 '
.1717
73993
.3625
.1717
.354G
.3549
.3«<53
.3329
.1717
'.2328
.1717
.232«
.1717
.2338
.3993
.1717
.3338
.3893
."I7t7
.23?8
.2326
.3993
.3893"
.1717
.319.3
.2338
.1717-"
.3993
. 2 3 2 fi
2.363PO
2. 363CO
3.367P3
2.36KO
2. 36000
2. Of 300
2, 360CO
2. 36JUO
2. 3 60 HO
2. 36000
3. 30 0 GO
2. '56 J 00
2. 3&003
2.36000
2.36000
2. 360CO
2. >6C23
2. 36 JCO
2, 36000
3. 36000
2.36000
S. 360CO
2. .76003
?.. 36QOO
3. 36-3CC
2. 360C3
2. 360 00
3. 36JOO
,71 234
3.36jCU
2 . 36000
2 . "*- 6 j 0 0
Z. 16000
2. 36300
2. 360f 0
2. 360oO
2.36GOO
3. '6300
2.36003
3.360C3
2. 360CQ
?. If «?GO
2. 06 JO 0
1. CCOO
1. liCulf
1. 0600
i.utoo
l.OCiiO
l.OCOO
l.OCOO
1 . 0 1' Q 0
l.GCOC
l.COOO
I'.'OCOC
l.CCGt.
1. CCOC
l.CCQl
l.OCOO
l.OOOf
1. OtOC
1 . 0 C Q fc
i.orco
l.ULCC
i. ccac
l.C JOu
l.OCOO
t.l/COO
1. OCCL
i. onoo
1 . ? C C c/
i.c ::o
i. croo
It CCGJ
.3Clf)
1.CI3C
1. OCOC
1. OCCC,
1. &COC
1. OOOC
l.OCOO
l.CCOC
1. OCOt
1.0 COG
i. croc
1. 3iLC
l.K-lit
1. OtOO
1 . 0 j j 6
. 23459
.53951
! 58425
.53951
.75097
".58425
.23459
,58425"
' :"«*
. 5B425
.53951
,53951
.53851
.23458
. 5B425
.58425
. 5fl42 5
.58435
.58425
. 58425
.23459
.58425
.58425
. 61.770
. 23459
.23459
\lllH
.23458
.23458
.581.25
.231*59
.33458
. 58435
!?3458
.58425
,1737
.3969
. 1737
.".327
, 4327
.5562
.4327
. 1737
. 1.327
.4327
.1737
.4327
.4327
.3989
,3989
.1989
.1737
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4337
.4327
.4327
.4337
.4327
.4327
.1737
.1737
.4327
.4327
~ .4797
.1737
.1737
.4327
.4327
.1737
.1737
.1737
.4327
.1737
.1737
.4337
.4327
.4327
.1737
.4327
. 00383
. 00074
. 04857
. 00 29 2
.00339
.00015
11 .OC812 "'
.03691
.27194
.17231
. J1374
. 033?4
.00413
.01680
.00793
. 00107
.12587
.00830
. 0121*0
.010S5
.05922
.oo?eo
.03239
. 03391
.OC978
. 01645
. 0061 3
. 16160
:°O"CQI
"" .033C6 "
. 08199
.C0122
.0021.5
.00755
. 03111
.03295
.00522
.04653
.0041 7
.02326
.03114
.00236
.01022
. 00170
.03349
.00131
.0033
.C006
.0429
.0025
.OC44
.0001
" .OC7i ' -
.C326
.2406
.0121
.0023
.0036
.0149
.0069
.0009
.1113
,OC73
.0109
.0089
.0524
.0024
.0035
.0035
.0036
.0145
.0054
.1433
.0319
t0655
.0027
.0725
. 0010
.0021
.0066
.0186
.0291
.0046
.0411
"".0205 '
.0713
.0320
.0090
.0015
.0332
.0111
-------
PAGE005
POO«UCT COMP t'lli* USTG1? IGftL r.oQHTK1
WETGHTin UNWGHTI)
2.43;- 2,363 1.350
Fi)TU = ; GROWTH DISPERSION
McIGHTfO UNKGKTO
WEIGHTED
UNHHHTO
1.130
TECHNICAL CHANGE
WEIGHTED
UNHGHTO
' VALUE
WEIGHTED
UNHGHTO
r919°
HI"':
2.31°'
? 9 1 < 3
l\\ll
H[l\
23197
2.9731
2P1"7
2«1°9
2871, 3
-n 28211*
<** 2 31 °i
28199
"i£
231G2
" 29197
29l°9
ltl°l
28197
2819Q
25197
231°9
28199
"'31
" ?"«'
?*197
21199
0 < u . 1 r, ; f, 15
77 4 4 0 7 ? 7
IS ~. i»'l ?
-1 UliL'^s
?i 4.44-,?&
r> 1 » . i, 5 2 3 3
16 U,t4??U7
9" 4 .1.Z7C5
71 It . 4 5 H u t>
16 t.-IH'.i.
7u i. . « 1 2 ' 9
57 i». 41191
.71 -.MMv
71 ^ . U r, 9 : '" '
37 ^.i,l-<73
? 5 . H . 1. 1 4 v, ^
21. i.-,''7i7c'.n
1 ... 5 ?9 2
.9«<50G
.1 3 ' *«
.399?
. 3^9
.3930
.3331,
, 3'3 C
.3^37
.3J9f>
.1703
.2978
.3317
.3793
.379?
!sU?
;"g"
.37F.6
*?775
. "'M 7
. 321 5
.3^72
.315?
.3f :. 0
.3?.? 2
. 7> 3 2
. 3fi 3 1
.'617
. 'r9.3
. 3bl 7
,3?01
.3533
..-'I; 9 3
.2876
. 3v 7 7
. 3'" 53
.3-^7
.?'<> 1
. 31.12
. fc 1735
.1.1735
. «t 1 7.3 5
.1,1735
. f F-575
. 1,1735
.1-1735
!jl735
.1.1735
.1,1735
IsfiS?!
.1.1735
.1,1735
.91.602
1 . 5 5 5 9 3
. 1,1735
!8f27r-5
.1*1735
.56575
. 86255
.1.1735
.tl 735
. "f 375
.41735
.1.1735
"" .1*3735
.1.5735
.M735
.\17.31;
. 91.0 i 2
.1.17.35
.41735
.41735
. I- 1735
.45735
.1 717
.1717
.1717
.1717
.2328
.1717
.1717
.1717
.1717
.1717
.3893
.2323
.1717
.1717
,6526
.3993
.3893
.6526
.1717
.1717
.1717
.351.9
!l717
72'3?~6
.1717
.1717
.2328
.1717
. 1717
.1717
.1717
.1717
.1717 ~
.1717
.1717
.1717
, 3993
.1717
.1717
.0*93
.1717
,1717
.1717
.1717
.1717
2. 36000
2.36003
2.36QPO
2.360CS
2.363PO
2. 360^0
2. 3&CFO
2. 363CO
2.363CO
2. -36000
zIlMOfl
P.36JCO
.71231,
2,.if>000
2.76330
2.3MCO
2.. 360 CO
2. 36CLO
2.360CO
2. 3C.3CO
2. 36020
2.3&cr.o
2. 70"CO
2.3630U
2.36000
2.36CHO
2.365C3
2.3f. 000
2.363CO
2.360TO
2. ?6iCQ
2. 36000
2.363CC-
2.360CO
2. 76 ] CO
2. 3ft -KO
2.36300
2.360C3
l.uCOP
1. 00 JO
i.onoc
i.ncco
l.OCOC
l.OCiO
l.OCOO
l.OCOC-
i. ecso
l.COOC
i. (-cat
1.0000
l.CCCC
i.ooao
i.oroo
l.PCOC
.3018
i.ccoo
1. OCOu
l.OSJO
l.OCCJ
I!DPCO
1.006L
l.DCOO
1. 0 CCC
l.OCCC
l.OCOC
i. oron
i. cao
l.OCOC
1. Cr CJC
i. droQ
i.ecoc
i. rctc
l.OCOC
1. 3COO
l.OLOO
1.0CO&
1.3COO
i.ciot
1. C COO
l.GCCC
l.OOOC
i . c r c i
1. OC&'o
. 581.25
.581,25
.581,25
.58425
.581,25
.58425
.58425
.58-»25
.58425
. .58425
.23459
. 58425
.58425
.5f 425
.61.770
.23458
.23459
.64770
.58425
.581,25
.58425
.53851
.581.25
. 5H425
.03851
.58435
,58425
.58425
.53425
.58425
.58425
. 581*25
.56425
.58425
.23459
.59425
.59425
.23453
, 5,3425
.58425
.53425
.584Z5
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.1737
.4327
,1,327
.4327
.1737
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4797
.1737
.1737
."*797
.4327
.4327
.4327
.3939
.1737
.1,327
.4327
.3989
.4327
.1*327
.4327
.4327
.t*327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.1737
,4327
.4327
.1737
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.4327
.00101
.30746
.01257
. 00143
.00091
.00289
.03336
.03939
.00862
.13599
.04359
.07119
.00113
.00919
. 01282
.25527
.00331
.05732
.021,47
.03077
.00043
.02237
. OC015
.00339
.03625
. 03C99
.OOC49
. 00126
.00097
. 00297
.Oul45
,0031,9
.00563
.00336
. 00615
.30138
.00770
.OOC37
.00484
.00358
.00605'
.30133
.02849
.OC324
.OC430
.02939
.00168
.OUC&O
.0009
.0066
.0111
.0012
.0003
.0107
,0?95
.0033
.0076
.1203
.0385
.0630
. 0013
.0331
.0113
.2259
.OC29
.0507
.0216
.0714
,0303
.0193
.0031
.0030
.0320
.0009
.0004
.0011
. 0003
.0326
.0312
.0030
.0049
.0029
.0054
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.0063
.OC03
.0042
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.0353
. OC12
.0252
.OC23
.0333
.0260
.0314
.0359
-------
) 1.350
niSP_ERSTON
HfciftHfc'o" " uu~w>,HTn
PPOOUTT
IHW5HTO
"_5£OW7H
'?.0 UVvTGHTO
1.130
TSCHNIC4L_CHANGE
WEIGHT E0~ UNHGHTO
. VALUE_
HEfGH'fea " " UNHGHTO
2«t°9 =>1
2?193~n -
23191 --
26107 27
zn99 -.,2
28i°? :,!
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21194 47
23197 .-»«.
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21199 12
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.(,1735
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.1.1735
,5f;575
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.91.6-2
" .ui>15
1. ^1591
' .1.1735
. ".1715
.321.31
.1.1715
.1.1735
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.1.1/15
.1.1715
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.1.1735
.1,1715
.1.1735
. <. 1 7 'i 5
. i. J715
.T. 6? 2
.1.1713
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. i.l 715
.I.1716
. 1.17*5
.<.1735
.1.1733
. 1.1735
. ??i,59
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. < 171>5
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. i. 1 7 1 5
. <07 55
1. S«54«
. U 1 ' 3 5
.1717
.1717
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^ .1717
.2321
.1717
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.652&
,1717
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. 1335
.1717
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.3191
. 1717
" ".1717
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.1717
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.1135
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2. 30JCO
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2.36000
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2 . 1 6 0 JO
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2.. 160 GO
2. 'APOO
3. '56000
2.163GO
2.1600 J
2. 763T3
2.160PO
.71231.
2.16000
2.16DCQ
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2.360CO
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. 531,25
.53851"
.581.25
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.531.25
. 581.25
.591*25
. 5fti.23
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. 511,25
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, SRi.20
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.1,327
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. 1,327
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. 1.327
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.1,327""
.1,327
" .M327
. <> 3 2 7
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. 1737
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.1,327
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.4727
,1.327
.1,327
. 1,797
.1.327
, 1.327
.1.327
.1,327
.1.327
.1737
.^.327
.1,327
.1.327
..1.327
.1.327
' .1.327 "
.1.327
. 1.127
.3939
.1.327
.1.727
.1.327
.4327
.1.3C7-
.47^7
.1.327
.00222
.01.279
.05161,
.0031.3
.00111
.COS39
.00007
.0059?"
.02916
.0133S
.01C70
.00539
.OOCi.5
. 0 0 1 ° V
.OQ766
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.05516
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. OC2f:7
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. 02185
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. 0 1 1 °. 3
.00:59
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.03c;i
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.0373
.01.57
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.0331
.0:05
" ' . C 3 5 J
.0261,
.0111
.0091,
.001,7
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. DC 16
.0067
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.001.5
.0033
.0321
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.0052
.2111
.0003
. OS57
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.0316
.C316
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.0165
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.0002
.C281
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.0653
.C30J
-------
COMPOSITE" PSflQUCT
PAGE007
PROPUCT r.
I
1
2831?
earn
?«?j t
\ll\\
Z«211
281^9
38199
?S?15
2:819°
2SlU
>TJ 2 "8 1 9 7
oogjn g^
?17(.'
28021
28i?3
2<" )?1
38314
' ' 28197
281°°
2821!.
2 8 ? I !
2*31?
?«1°9
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2 ft / 31
28131
28211
? 3 1 ? 1
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2811 5
T5
15
11
rt e;
S3-
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*;
1 7
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ji
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75
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1?
45
5o
1 7
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1 j
f.J
98 " '
w-:tn>)Ts 2.91?
nnr> iMnrv HISTORICAL r.oOHTH
4. 31; );'.
... 2 '-77*
4,?F71~
'<.!'?;<;. 7'
4.2-719
* . 2 1 1 7 9
4 , ? 1. 1 1
-. . ? T 1 » 1
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*» . r ? 7 f-. H
:* ' ' ', r (i
4 . 1 .8 7 ' 3
4. j 7i?c
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- . i : % T 7
4 . lu s ." 3
4 . 1 4 i « .j
'..13'?:
'< . 1 1 > I >
4 . 1 : s i s
uii^r"
^c-^oi?"
WIGHT' 0 UNWC.HTO
. O1! 733 .-'1 38
.4L-94 ,312f
.71913 .?482
i:"«-I i!"?
.7.-l-?6 . ?', 1Q
1.11231 ,"»837
1.2 9?-, 5 .4,oC
I8798C l"^3
.87Q24 .3C18
1.11061 ,38?.9
^Sfibil !?986
.B-S312 ,2^7B
1.3/?"9
1. 585JO
1.'58598
,11139
1. t.«ilS
. 11139
1 . ^8598 "
1,51^98
2. o4j4t
UNHGHTO
.1717
.1/17
.6536
.1717
.3893
.839F.
.3897
.'6526
.1717
.1717
.6526
.1717
.1717
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.17:7
.6526
.1717
.7893
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. >) 4 5 8
.1375
,6536
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.1717
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.1717
.1335
.3893
.6^26
.nss '
.0458
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.8396:
WEIGHTED
?.1ftJOO
2 « 3 6 3 d 0
3. 36QOO
2. 76JCU
.3; 300
. 7] 234
2. 7f,OCO
.71334
.71234
2. 36JCO
2. 363 GO
2.3&JGO
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2. 36)00
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2. 36irj
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1.0C30
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1. OC1C
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1.1
TECHNICAL
WEIGHTED
,581.25
.561)25
,64773
,23i»58
.67737
.64773
. 27458
.64773
,64770
. .64770
.58425
.58425
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. 58425
.' 58425
.64773
. 58*25
.56425
,64773
. 58435
. 23458
,53951
.58425
. 53851
.64770
.58425
.58425
.64770
.64770
.56425
.64770
.64770
. 64770
.63737
.58425
111 .53*51" '
. 6u770
.64770
.53351
.58 ',2 5
.58425
.64770
.&C770
.63737
30
CHANGE
UUWGHTO
.4377
.4327
.4797
.4327
.1737
.4721
.4797
.1737
.4797
.4797
.4797
.4327
,4327
' .4797
.4327
.4337
.4797
.4337
.4327
.U797
.1737
.39B9
. 4327
.3989
.4797
.4727
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.4797
.4797
.4727
.4797
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.4731
. 4 .7 3 7
.39H9
.4797
,1737 ' -'
.4797
.3989
.4337
,4327
.4797
.4797
.4721"'
VALUE
WEIGHTED
.00077
.00071.
.03997
. 00082
.00379
.03559
. 03739
. 03733
.03247
.18477
.00372
.00039
.00032
.01070
.00197
.OC072
. 06663
.00426
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.00226
. 00176
. 0 C -3 4 0
.00331
. 09547
.04845
.03719
.00099
.00173
.0391 4
.CJ830
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.11601
,00235
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.00472
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.02010
.01797
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.04312
. OC3?1
.01689
.00146
UNHGHTO
.0037
.0006
.0265
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.0226
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.0362
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.1635
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.0003
.0002
.0094
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.0533
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.G023
.0023
.0315
. C003
.0339
. 0755
.0428
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.0073
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.1036
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.0344
TC(}?S
.0341
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.0136
.0177
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.0351
.0334
.0149
.0313
-------
*'- T'
pp.noncT COMP
COMPOS
;HTS ?.«oc
w-Tr.Mi.-rj UNHr,HTU
TTF PRODUCT
2 . i, .3 0
FUTURE C,
MEir.HHO
RflNKlN
^OHTH
G
2.
UNHC.HTO
360 1.350
DISPERSION
Htir.HTFO
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1. 1
TECHNICS
W£IGHTEO """
30
CH&NGE
PAGE008
VALUE
IINHGHTO WEIGHTED UNWGHTO
297I.1'
>1?15
2*121.
"211
?R12?
26197
28211
2«1??
29121
2*21*
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~"v°"292l-
?«19
29211.
2«12.7.
?«>! 2
28719
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2831 ~i
28719
2*?1I
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.
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11 5
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21 3.S7173
11 J.Vo'.i
23 J . 0 1 1 r 9
11 ^. 19/Vi
13 3.1ri*'l
'5 3,-if2K
^1 3 '.77°"?
11 3 . '<< : 3 "
- . 1.7?: 7 7
1~ .3 . 7 u 7 i ?
73 3 . T 1. 1 1 7
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E» 31?. 33 3.W41 IB
!»»
99 3.?io7T
3 . 7 1 v : 3
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I . 1->.S 3
1 . * " v 0 3
1 . P 2 37 S
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l.uOS.o
1 . li / B'S 2
1 . 3 ? 31 f.
1 . i. '^ t. j U
1.309^9
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. 979.. 9
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1!s5^<5
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. 7 60? 5
1 . C S ? 7 S
1.1,5577
1 . J ', 0 3 5
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" 1.3.7750"
. 'io9T<
' .1319
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,7.530
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1. 5B599
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. 11129
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1 . r> 1 5 J 9
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1. 5B598
2. j^Ji»s
1, 5 "59 ft
. 11129
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1. 56399
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1.59593
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1.5H599
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1. 56599
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.1717
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. 1396
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2. 7f,GCO
2. .363 CO
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2.3600U
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2.36000
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2.36QCO
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7123t
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2.36100
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p°nnucT
PAGE009
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1.130
TECHNICAL CHANGE
HEIGH TED
1.35300
1.35030
1.35033
1.35000
1.35-303
1.15000
1.35-300
1.35330
1.35303
.61.770
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.27291,
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. 27231.
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. 27291.
.63717
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. 27291,
VALUE
UNHGHTO WEIGHTED
i.or-oo
1.0000
1.00 CO
i.utco
l.OCDO
l.OC-00
l.OGOO
1.0003
l.OCOC
.1.797
l.OCOG
.2021
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.07171
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.01«.35
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.OOT26
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. 18369
.031.79
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.01309
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.001.71,
.01393
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,10532
.0731.7
.00132
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.013«5
.00226
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.0277
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.0096
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.0178
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C1MPOSITr
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TECHNICAL CHANGE
H£IGHf£0
.27294
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.19032
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. 27894
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VALUE
WEIGHTED
.00393
.00972
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, 03K6
.00339
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. 03292
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. 01391
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. 99S66
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. 0144J
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-------
3AHKINK
PAGEOll
?..<«3i. 2.363
_ f.(l.Tl!f ^ .G3P WTH __
Htir.HT'f'6 UMHGwtb"
ueiGHTE'b"
1.350 1.130
T£CHNICH_CHANGE
tiMHOHTO WEIGHTED" UMHGHTD
VALUE
WEIGHTED UNWGHTD
-------
"AGE012
VULUE
WEIGHTED UNHGHTO
'".CIO 71
2Mt* ?!
29'»i.'. 31
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293 US 9 °
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. 0500
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. 19032
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.OJB72
. 00593
.00610
. 0 0 C 1 8
. OD9C9
.00267
. OCC51
. CC1«6
.03C3C
. OGi.32
.011.23
.013C1
.03:i.2
.C0536
.00339
.001.79
. 00<«C 7
. 001^5
.00899
. 0 C C 3 5
. 00393
. 0&1D3.
.OOC5J
.00010
. 03081.
. Oj032
. an
-------
APPENDIX G
PRODUCT CODES AND NAMES
-------
TABLE G-l. PRODUCT CODES AND NAMES
Product Code
Product Name
Alkalies and Chlorine
28121 --
28121 11
28121 15
28122 --
28122 31
28122 41
28122 45
28123 --
28123 61
28122 67
28124 --
28124 22
28124 23
28124 90
Industrial Gases
28132 --
28133 --
28133 11
28133 31
28134 --
28134 15
28134 20
28134 40
28134 50
28134 71
Inorganic Pigments
28161 11
28162
Chlorine, compressed or liquefied:
Chlorine gas
Chlorine liquid
Sodium carbonate (soda ash)
2
Synthetic sodium carbonate (58% Na_0 ):
Finished bicarbonate
Finished dense ash
Finished light ash
Sodium hydroxide (caustic soda):
68-74% liquid
Dry (all forms)
Other alkalies:
Potassium hydroxide (caustic potash) (88-92% KOH):
Liquid
Solid
Other alkalies
Acetylene
Carbon dioxide
Liquid and gas
Solid (dry ice)
Elemental gases and compressed and liquefied
gases, N.E.C.
Argon, high purity (99.97-100%)
Hydrogen
Nitrogen
Oxygen
Nitrous Oxide
Titanium pigments, composite and pure (100% T^Oo^
Other white opaque pigments
G-2
-------
TABLE G-l. (continuad)
Product Code
Product Name
28162 13
28162 21
28162 98
28162 99
28163 --
28163 11
28163 13
28163 15
28163 17
28163 18
28163 27
28163 31
28163 41
28163 45
28163 51
28163 61
28163 88
28163 91
28163 99
28163 98
White lead, basic carbonate and sulfate, excluding
white lead in oil
Lead free zinc oxide pigments
All other white opaque pigments, including anti-
mony oxide, lithopone, pure zinc sulfide, and
leaded zinc oxide
Otti-sr white opaque pigments, n.s.k.
Chrome colors and other inorganic pigments
Chrome green (chrone yellow and iron blue)
Chrome oxide green
Chrome yellow and orange
Molybdate chrome orange
Zinc yellow (zinc chromate)
White extender pigments including barytes, blank
fixe, and whiting
Color pigments other than chrome colors and lakes
and toners:
Iron oxide pigments
Colored lead pigments:
Red lead
Litharge
Iron blues (Prussian Blue, milori blue, etc.)
Pearl essence
Carbon blacks (bone and lamp) excluding furnace
and channel carbon black and charcoal
Ceramic colors
Chrome colors and other inorganic pigments, n.s.k.
All other color pigments, including ultramarine
blue (excluding organic pigments, lakes, and
toners)
Industrial Inorganic Chemicals
28192 --
28193 --
28193 11
28193 31
28193 51
Inorganic and industrial household bleaching
compounds
Sulfuric acids
Contact acid:
Oleum under 40%
Contact acid otuer than oleum
Chamber acid
G-3
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28194 --
28194 11
28194 31
28194 41
28194 45
28194 47
28194 61
28194 98
28195 --
28196
28196 17
28196 25
28196 27
28196 51
28196 55
28196 71
28197 --
28197 13
28197 16
28197 18
28197 21
28197 27
28197 28
28197 29
28197 30
Inorganic acids except nitric and sulfuric
Boric (boraic) acid (100% H3B03)
Chromic acids (100% Cr03>
Hydrochloric acid including anhydrous -;1007. Hcl)
from salt
Hydrochloric acid including anhydrous from
chlorine
Hydrochloric acid including anhydrous by-products
and others
Hydrofluoric (1007. HF) acid, both anhydrous and
technical
Other inorganic acids, N.E.C. (including hydro-
cyanic (including anhydrous (100'A HCN), nixed
(sulfuric and nitric)
Aluminum oxide, except natural alumina (100% Al 0.)
Other aluminum compounds
Anhydrous chloride
Hydroxide, trihydrate (1007. AUO. 3H20)
Fluoride (technical)
Commercial sulfate (17% A^OJ
Iron free sulfate (17% A^O-j)
Other inorganic aluminum compounds, including
sodium aluminate, light aluminum hydroxide,
cryolite, and alums and chloride: liquid (32 Be),
crystal (32°Be)
Potassium and sodium compounds (except bleaches,
alkalies, and alums)
Potassium Compounds, N.E.C.:
Iodide (100% KI)
Sulfate (100% l^SO^)
Tetrapotasslum Pyrophosphate
Sodium (metal) (100% Na)
Sodium Compounds, N.E.C.:
Chlorate (100% NaClo,)
Fluoride
Hydrosulfide (sodium sulfhydrate) (100% NaSH)
Hydrosulfite (100% Na2S204)
Phosphate:
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Produce Code
Product Name
28197 32
28197 33
28197 34
28197 35
28197 36
28197 37
28197 38
28197 41
28197 43
28197 51
28197 61
28197 65
28197 82
28197 83
28197 84
28197 87
28198 --
28199 --
28199 01
28199 02
28199 03
28199 04
28199 06
28199 07
28199 09
Monobasic (100% NaHjPO )
Dibasic (100% Na,HPO,)
Tribasic (1007. Na^O^)
Tetrabasic (100% Na P 0 )
Meta (100% NaP03)
Acid pyro (100% ^2H2?2°1\
Tripoly (1007, Na^O^)
Silicates:
Soluble silicate glass (u-ater glass), solid and
liquid (anhydrous)
Metasilicate (100% Na SiO 5H 0)
Orthosilicate (100% Na. SiO, )
4 4
Silicofluoridc (100% Na.SiF,)
i fa
Sulfate:
High purity (refined) (anhydrous) (100% Xa^SO^)
Low purity (99% or less Xa SO ) (salt cakj)
Glauber's salt (100% Na.SO. 1011 0)
2.
-------
TABLE G-l. (continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28199 10
28199 11
28199 12
28199 13
28199 14
28199 16
28199 19
28199 18
28199 23
28199 24
28199 29
28199 32
28199 33
28199 35
28199 37
28199 39
28199 40
28199 42
28199 44
28199 48
Bromine (100% Br)
Cadmium compounds
Calcium Compounds:
Calcium carbide (commercial)
Calcium carbonate (precipitated) (100°/ CaCO )
Chloride:
Solid, excluding flake (73-757. CaCLj, flake
(77-807. CaCl2)
Liquid chloride (40-457. CaClj)
Phosphate:
Dibasic:
Animal feed grades, other grades (except
fertilizer grades)
Monobasic phosphate and tribasic phosphate
Other inorganic calcium compounds, calcium
hypochlorite (high test) (707. available Cl)
Carbon, activated:
Decolorizing, water purification carbon
Chromium Compounds:
Bichromates and Chromates:
Sodium bichromate and chromate (hydrous)
Other chromium compounds including potassium
bichromate and chromate (hydrous) (excluding
chrome colors)
Cobalt compounds
Copper Compounds:
Cuprous oxide (1007. CU20)
Copper sulfate (100% CuSO^ 5H20)
Other copper compounds (including copper cyanide,
and cupric oxide)
Hydrogen peroxide
Iodine, crude or resublimed (1007. I)
Iron Compounds:
Ferric chloride (1007. FeCl3)
Ferrous sulfate (1007. FeSO, 7H20)
Other Iron compounds
Magnesium Compounds:
Sulfate, including Epsom salts (1007. MgSO,)
Other magnesium compounds
G-6
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28199 50
28199 52
28199 53
28199 55
28199 90
28199 56
28199 57
28199 58
28199 60
28199 63
28199 61
28199 65
28199 66
28199 68
28199 71
28199 72
28199 73
28199 74
28199 75
28199 80
28199 81
Manganese Compounds:
Sulfate (100% MnSO. 4H.,0)
U £
Other manganese compounds, including potassium and
other permanganates and manganese dioxide,
battery grade
Mercury Compounds:
Mercury, redistilled (Ib.)
Other mercuric compounds, except mercuric ful-
minate and medicinal grades
Molybendum, platinum, radium, strontium, tantalum,
thallium, and tungsten compounds
Nickel Compounds:
Sulfate (1007. NiSO, 6H20)
Other nickel compounds
Phosphorus Compounds:
Phosphorus elemental:
White (yellow) technical, red (technical)
Oxychloride (1007, POC1 )
Trichloride (chloride) (100% PCI )
Pentasulfide (100% P^)
Rare earth compounds
Selenium compounds
Silica Gel:
Butadiene catalyst grade, desiccant grade, aviation
catalyst grade
Silver Compounds:
Cyanide (100% AgCN)
Nitrate (100% AgNO )
Other silver compounds
Sulfur, recovered elemental
Sulfur Compounds:
Dioxide (produced for sale) (100% S02)
Tin Compounds:
Oxide (stannic) (100% Sn02)
Other tin compounds (including stannic and stannous
chloride)
Zinc Compounds:
G-7
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28199 87
28199 88
28199 91
28199 92
28199 94
28199 98
Sulfate (1007. ZnSO, 7H,0)
Other zinc compounds excluding pigment grades,
including zinc chloride (1007. ZnCl2)
Radioactive isotopes shipped from non-AEC plants
producing isotopes
Radiation sources and other radioactive materials
produced from purchased isotopes
Industrial bleaches including liquid lime bleaches
All other inorganic chemicals, N.E.C. including
activated carbon, deoderizing grade, and solvent
recovery and gas absorption grade, other sulfur
compounds including sulfur chloride
Lead Compounds:
Nitrate, other lead compounds (excluding pigment
grade)
Plastics Materials and Resins
28211 --
28211 11
28211 15
28211 21
28211 23
28211 25
28211 31
28211 41
28211 45
28211 61
28211 63
28211 65
28211 83
28211 95
28211 99
Unsupported plastics film, sheets, sheeting, rods,
tubes, and other stock shapes (made from resins
produced in same establishment and made from
purchased resins)
Cellulosic unsupported film, sheets, and sheeting
(less than 3.0 mils and not specified by gauge)
Cellulosic unsupported film, sheets, and sheeting
(10.0 mils and over)
Polyethylene unsupported film, sheets, and
sheeting (less than 3.0 mils)
Polyethylene unsupported film, sheets, and
sheeting (3.0 mils to 9.9 mils)
Polyethylene unsupported film, sheets, and
sheeting (10.0 mils and over)
Polypropylene unsupported film, sheets, and
sheeting (less than 3.0 mils)
Polystyrene unsupported filtr., sheets, and
sheeting (less than 3.0 mils to 9.9 mils)
Polystyrene unsupported film, sheets, and
sheeting (10.0 mils and over)
Vinyl and vinyl copolyrner less than 3.0 mils and
not specified by gauge
Vinyl and vinyl copolymer (3.0 to 9.9 mils)
Vinyl and vinyl copolymer (10.0 mils and over)
Cellulosics (unsupported plastic rods, tubes, and
other stock shapes, excluding foam)
Cellulosics (vinyl and vinyl copolymer)
Cellulosics (unsupported plastics film, sheets,
sheeting, rods, tubes, and other stock shapes,
n.s.k.
-------
TABLE G-l. (continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28212
28212 13
28212 51
28213 --
28213 21
28213 51
28213 61
28213 63
28213 67
28213 69
28213 71
28213 73
28213 75
28213 85
28213 89
28213 99
28214 --
28214 11
28214 21
28214 31
28214 75
28214 98
28215 --
Regenerated cellulosic products, except rayon
Cellophane sheets and rolls, uncoatcd, nitro-
cellulose coated, polymer coated
Sponges, caps and bands, other regenerated
cellulosic products, except rayon, n.s.k.
Thermoplastic resins
Polyethylene resins, low and medium density
(0.940 and under) and high density (over 0.940)
Polypropylene resins
Polystyrene including rubber modified styrene
resins
Styrene acrylonitrite (styrene resins)
Other styrene copolymers with 507,, or more styrene
All other styrene and styrene derivative polymers
and copolymers including styrene-divinyl
benzene and acrylonitrite-butadiene-styrene
Vinyl resins, polyvinyl chloride and copolymers
with 507. or more polyvinyl chloride
Polyvinyl acetate
All other vinyl and vinyl copolymer resins
Acrylic resins, polyamide (nylon) resins
Other thermoplastic resins and materials such as
cellulosics acetal, polycarbonate, polyterpine,
acrylic resins, fluorocarbons
Thermoplastic resins and plastics materials,
excluding resins and plastics for protective
coatings, n.s.k.
Thennosetting resins, excluding resins for
protective coatings
Melamine, formaldehyde resins, and urea-for-
maldehyde resins
Phenolic and other tar and resins
Polyester resins
Epoxy resins
Other thennosetting resins and plastics materials,
including alkyd (not for protective coatings),
furan acetone formaldehyde, etc., and therrao-
settlng resins and plastics materials, excluding
resins and plastics for protective coatings,
n.s.k.., silicone resins, cuomarone resins
(indene And petroleum polymers)
Synthetic resin adhesives, from resins manufactured
in same establishment
6-9
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28215 11
28215 31
28215 98
28216 --
28216 11
28216 21
28217 11
28219 --
28219 13
28219 15
28219 19
28219 41
28219 98
Synthetic Rubber
28229 99
Cellulosic Man-Made
Epoxy
Urea and melamine
All others including combinations (synthetic
resin adhesives including phenolic)
Synthetic resins for protective coatings
Synthetic resins for use in latex base emulsion
paints including acrylic, styrene-butadiene,
vinyl, etc.
Synthetic resins for use in other types of paint
Custom compounding of purchased resins
Plastics and resin materials, monofilaments not
suitable for further manufacturing on textile
processing equipment
Polyethylene monofilaments
Polypropylene monofilatnents
Other monofilaments (including polyamide nylon)
Vulcanized fiber sheets, rods, tubes, and
hollowware, semi-manufactured
Other plastics and resin materials, X.E.C.
excluding photographic film, rayon, acetate,
or nitro explosives
Cellulose and other plastic film from scrap
Synthetic rubber
Fibers
28231 --
28231 11
28231 15
28231 17
28231 21
28232
Acetate yarn
Packaged Yarn:
45 denier (47 denier and finer)
55 denier (48 to 62 denier)
75 denier (63 to 87 denier)
100 denier (88 to 112 denier)
120 denier (113 to 137 denier)
150 denier (138 to 162 denier)
200 denier (163 to 237 denier)
300 denier (238 denier and more)
Staple and tow except cigarette filters
Other acetate products, N.E.C. including salable
waste
Acetate yarn, n.s.k.
Rayon yarn, viscose, and cuprammonium processes
Packaged Tarn, including rayon horsehair, straw,
etc. (monofilaments by denier):
G-10
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28232 11
28232 23
28232 25
28232 27
28232 41
28232 51
45 denier (47 denier and finer)
55 denier (48 to 62 denier)
75 denier (63 to 87 denier)
100 denier (88 to 112 denier)
125 denier (113 to 137 denier)
150 denier (138 to 162 denier)
200 denier (163 to 237 denier)
250 and 300 denier (238 to 374 denier)
450 denier (375 to 524 denier)
600 denier (525 to 749 denier)
900 denier (750 to 999 denier)
1,100 denier (1,000 to 1,374 denier)
1,650 denier (1,375 denier and more)
Staple
Tow, waste including staple waste, other rayon
products, N.E.C.
Rayon yarn, viscose, and cuprammonium processes,
n.s.k.
Organic Fibers. Koncellulosic
28241 --
28241 15
28241 33
28242 --
28242 31
28242 51
28242 62
28242 64
28242 71
Biological Products
28311 --
28311 11
28312 11
28313 11
Polyamide fibers, nylon except monofilaments
Filament yarn and textile raonofilaments
Staple, tow, and salable waste
Other noncellulosic synthetic organic fibers
Acrylic and modacrylic filament yarn and textile
monofilaments, staple, and tow
Polyester filament yarn and textile monofilaments,
staple, tow, and fiberfill, salable waste for
textile use
Polyolefin filament yarn and textile filaments
Polyolefin film fiber, slit and split, staple,
tow, salable waste for textile use
Filament yarn and textile monofilaments of other
man-made fibers (except glass) including saran,
spandex, anidex (extruded and split), vinyon,
fluorocarbon, etc.
Biological products for human use: blood and blood
derivatives, vaccines and antigens, antitoxins,
toxoids and toxins for immunization, therapeutic
Immune serums, diagnostic substances, other
biologies for human use including allergenic
extracts, poison ivy and poison oak extracts, etc.
Blood and blood derivatives
Vaccines and antigens
Antitoxins, toxoids, and toxins for immunization
and therapeutic iiranune serums
G-11
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Produce Name
28314 11
28315 --
28315 13
28315 23
28315 33
28315 98
Diagnostic substances and other biologies,
including allergenic extracts, poison ivy and
poison oak extracts
Biological products for veterinary use
Vaccines and viruses
Bacterins and mixed bacterins
Serums
Other biologies including antitoxins, toxoids,
and diagnostics
Pharmaceutical Preparations
28341 --
28341 11
28341 15
28341 17
28341 19
28341 21
28341 25
28341 27
28341 35
28341 37
28341 39
28341 43
28341 98
28342
28342 13
Pharmaceutical preparations affecting neoplasms,
endocrine system, and metabolic diseases for
human use
Hormones and synthetic substitutes:
Corticoids:
Systemic
Local and topical, including anti-infective
combinations
Androgens
Estrogens
Insulin and anti-diabetic agents and other
hormone preparations
ACTH
Progestogens (excluding premenstrual tension
preparations):
Oral contraceptive preparations, others
Thyroid and antithyroid preparations, including
iodides
Anabolic agents
Other hormone preparations
Antineoplastic agents:
Radioactive isotopes for internal use, specific
antineoplastic agents
Other pharmaceutical preparations affecting neo-
plasms, the endocrine system, and metabolic
diseases
Pharmaceutical preparations affecting neoplasms,
endocrine system, and metabolic diseases for
human use, n.s.k.
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on central
nervous system and sense organs for human use
Skeletal muscle relaxants
6-12
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28342 21
28342 23
28342 25
28342 27
28342 51
28342 55
28342 57
28342 61
28342 63
28342 69
28342 71
28342 75
28342 77
28342 79
28342 81
28342 85
28342 91
28342 95
28342 98
Internal analgesics and antipyretics:
Narcotic
Nonnarcotic:
Salicylates, including acetylsalicylic acid
Aspirin combinations
Anti-arthritics (nonhormonal), other analgesics
and antipyretics, including effervescent types
and suppositories
Psychotherapeutic agents:
Antidepressants
Tranquilizers:
Phenothiazine derivatives
Other tranquilizers, other therapeutic agents
Central Nervous System (CNS) stimulants (respira-
tory and cerebral stimulants, including sym-
pathomimetic agents employed mainly as CNS
stimulants) (excluding nondrug dietaries for
weight control:
Amphetamines
Anorexiants, except amphetamines
Other CNS stimulants
Sedatives and hypnotics:
Ethical:
Barbiturates
Nonbarbiturates
Proprietary preparations:
Sleep inducers
Calming agents
Anesthetics (except urinary tract anesthetics
and skin preparations used as antipruritics):
Local and topical
General
Eye and ear preparations (excluding anti-infectives,
cortlcoids, and antibacterials and antiseptics):
Mydriatics and miotics
Other eye and ear preparations, including contact
lens solutions
Other pharmaceutical preparations acting on the
central nervous system and the sense organs
G-13
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28342 98
28343 --
28343 U
28343 21
28343 31
28343 41
28343 45
28343 49
28343 51
28343 55
28343 98
28344 --
28344 11
28344 15
28344 21
28344 25
28344 31
28344 35
28344 39
28344 41
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the central
nervous system and the sense organs for human
use, n.s.k.
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the cardio-
vascular system for human use
Anticoagulants
Hemostatics
Digitalis preparations
Hypotensives:
Rauwolfia-diuretic combinations
Rauwolfia
Other hypotensives
Vasodilators:
Coronary
Peripheral
Other pharmaceutical preparations acting on the
cardiovascular system, including vasopresbors,
anti-arrhythmics, and anciheparin agents
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the cardio-
vascular system for human use, n.s.k.
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the respi-
ratory system for human use
Antihistamines, except cold preparations and
anti-emetics
Bronchial dilators, including anti-asthmatics
Cough preparations and expectorants (containing
no antitussive or other ingredient intended
primarily to treat cough only):
Ethical preparations:
Narcotic
Nonnarcotic
Cold preparations (containing combinations of the
following ingredients, (but no antitussive) nasal
decongestant, antihistamine, analgesic, biofla-
vanoid or antibiotic):
Ethical preparations:
Nasal decongestants
Antihistamine cold preparations
Other ethical cold preparations
Cough and cold combinations (ethical)
Cough and cold preparations (proprietary):
Decongestants (including corticoid decongestants):
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28344 51
28344 55
28344 59
28344 61
28344 63
28344 67
28344 79
28344 98
28345 --
28345 11
28345 15
28345 19
28345 21
28345 23
28345 25
28345 27
28345 28
28345 31
28345 33
28345 35
28345 37
28345 41
28345 43
28345 45
28345 49
Nasal sprays
Nose drops
Other decongestants
Cough syrups
Capsules and tablets
Topical preparations
Other proprietary cough and cold preparations
(including lozenges and cough drops)
Other pharmaceutical preparations acting on the
respiratory system
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the respi-
ratory system for human use, n.s.k.
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the digestive
or genito-urinary systems for human use
Digestive system preparations:
Enzymes
Antacids, including acid neutralizing products
with coating functions, but excluding effer-
vescent salicylate products classified as
analgesics
Antidiarrheals
Laxatives:
Irritants
Bulk producing
Fecal softeners
Emollients
Saline, enema specialties
Digestants
Bile therapy preparations, including bile products,
choleretics and cholagogues
Antinauseants, motion sickness remedies (anti-
emetics) including antihistaminic anti-emetic
preparations
Lipotropics and cholesterol reducers
Antispasmodics and anticholinergics:
Synthetics
Ataractic combinations
Belladonna and derivatives
Other antispasmodics and anticholinergics
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28345 59
28345 61
28345 71
28345 73
28345 81
28345 83
28345 85
28345 87
28345 98
28345 99
28346 --
28346 11
28346 13
28346 15
28346 17
28346 19
28346 21
28346 31
28346 35
28346 37
28346 39
28346 98
28346 99
Other digestive system preparations including
emetics
Genito-urinary preparations:
Urinary antibacterials and antiseptics
Diuretics (excludes aminophylline, xanthine, and
rauwolfia-diuretio combinations)
Thiazides and related agents
Other diuretics
Oxytocics
Contraceptive agents, except oral contraceptives
(aerosols, gels, and creams)
Premenstrual tension preparations
Vaginal cleaners
Other pharmaceutical preparations acting on the
genito-urinary system including urinary tract
anesthetics
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the digestive
or genito-urinary systems for human use, n.s.k.
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the skin
for human use
Dermatological preparations:
Emollients and protectives, including burn reme-
dies and ointment bases
Antipruritics and local anesthetic skin
preparations
Coal tar, sulfur, and resorcinol preparations
Anti-acne and antiseborrheic preparations
Other dermatological preparations
Hemorrhoidal preparations
External analgesics and counter-irritants:
Ointments, jellies, pastes, creams, cerates,
and salves
Liquid (excluding rubbing alcohol but including
linaments)
Rubbing alcohol
Other external analgesics
Other pharmaceutical preparations acting on the
skin
Pharmaceutical preparations acting on the skin
for human use, n.s.k.
G-16
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28347
28347 11
28347 13
28347 14
28347 15
28347 17
28347 21
28347 31
28347 41
28347 51
28347 53
28347 55
28347 57
28347 61
28347 98
28347 99
28348 --
28348 11
28348 15
28348 21
28348 23
28348 25
Vitamin, nutrient, and heinatinic preparations for
human use
Vitamins:
Multivitarains, plain and with minerals, except
8-coroplex vitamins and fish liver oils
Pediatric vitamin preparations (drops, suspen-
sions, and chewable tablets)
Prenatal vitamin preparations
B-complex preparations
Fluoride preparations, all other vitamin
preparations
Fish liver oils (cod, etc.)
Nutrients, excluding therapeutic dietary foods
and infant formulas
Tonics and alternatives
Hematinics with B :
Oral
Parenteral
Other Hematinics:
Oral
Parenteral
Hospital solutions, including dextran, etc.,
excluding biologicals (blood plasma)
Other vitamin, nutrient, and hematinic preparations
Vitamin, nutrient, and heinatinic preparations for
human use, n.s.k.
Pharmaceutical preparations affecting parasitic
and infective diseases for human use
Anti-infective agents (excludes corticoid anti-
infective combinations):
Amebacides and trichomonacides
An the lain tics
Systematic antibiotic preparations:
Broad and medium spectrum (single or in combina-
tions with other antibiotics)
Penicillins (single):
Injectable
Other forms
G-17
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28348 27
28348 29
28348 31
28348 39
28348 41
28348 51
28348 55
28348 61
28348 63
28348 65
28348 69
28348 71
28348 75
28348 98
28349 --
28349 11
28349 21
28349 23
28349 25
28349 31
28349 33
28349 35
28349 37
28349 43
28349 45
28349 47
28349 51
Penicillin-streptomycin and/or dihydrostrepto-
mycin. combinations
Streptomycin and/or dihydrostreptoroycin (single
and combinations, except penicillin combina-
tions )
Antibiotics in combination with sulf o.iamides
Other systemic antibiotic preparations
Topical antibiotic preparations
Tuberculostatic agents:
Izoniasid (isonicotinic acid hydrazade)
preparations
Other antituberculars
Antimalarials (plasmodicides)
Sulfonamides, except antibiotic-sulfonamide
combinations
Antifungal preparations
Other anti-infective agents
Antibacterials and antiseptics:
General
Mouth and throat preparations
Other pharmaceutical preparations affecting
parasitic and infective diseases
Pharmaceutical preparations affecting parasitic
and infective diseases for human use, n.s.k.
Pharmaceutical preparations for veterinary use
Anesthetics
Anthelmintics
Antibiotics
Antiseptics, wound dressings, and fungicides
Hematiaics
Hemostatics
Hormones
Intravenous solutions and electrolytes
Nutrients and tonics
Parasiticides, external
Sulfonamides
Tranquilizers and ataractics
G-18
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28349 55
28349 98
Soap and Other Detergents
28411 --
Vitamins and minerals
Other pharmaceutical preparations for veterinary
use
Pharmaceutical preparations for veterinary use,
n.s.k.
28411 12
28411 14
28411 16
28411 18
28411 21
28411 23
28411 25
28411 26
28411 41
28411 43
28411 45
28411 47
28411 48
Soap and detergents, nonhousehold
Soaps except specialty cleaners, nonhousehold
(b.ilk products and products sold in containers
holding over 25 Ibs. or over 1 gallon, for
industrial, institutional, or commercial use
regardless of package size):
Chips, flakes, granulated, powdered, and sprayed,
including washing powders
Liquid (potash and other, excluding shampoos)
Mechanics hand soaps, pastes, and bars, except
waterless
Other soaps, nonhousehold
Alkaline detergents, nonhousehold (bulk products
and products sold in containers holding over
25 Ibs. or 1 gallon, tor industrial, institu-
tional, or commercial use regardless of package
size):
Machine dishwashing compounds:
Liquid
Dry
Other alkaline detergents, nonhousehold:
Liquid
Dry, hard surface cleaners, other alkaline
detergents
Synthetic organic detergents, nonhousehold (bulk
products and products sold in containers holding
over 25 Ibs. or over 1 gallon, and for industrial,
institutional, or commercial use regardless of
package size):
Dry (powders):
Anionlc base
Nonionic base or other base
Liquid:
Anlonic base
Nonionic base or other base
Scouring cleaners with or without abrasives
Acid-type cleaners, containing an acid and/or
wetting agent, and/or inorganic fillers:
G-19
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
Dairy, farm, and food plant cleaners, sanitizers,
etc.:
28411 61
28411 73
28411 79
28411 99
28412
28412 13
28412 15
28412 21
28412 24
28412 31
28412 41
28412 53
28412 99
28413
28413 11
28413 13
28413 22
Halogenated, dry and liquid
Nonhalogenated, dry and liquid
Metal cleaners:
Dry and liquid
All other metal cleaners
Soap and detergents, nonhousehold, n.s.k.
Household detergents, alkaline detergents, house-
hold (products sold in containers holding 25
Ibs. or less and 1 gallon or less, and for use
by family units)
Machine dishwashing compounds:
Dry machine dishwashing compounds
Other alkaline detergents, household:
Liquid and dry (powders)
Synthetic organic detergents, household (products
sold in containers holding 25 Ibs. or less and
1 gallon or less, for use by family units):
Dry (solid or powders):
Light duty
Heavy duty:
Phosphate based, phosphate free, hard surface
cleaners
Liquid, excluding shampoos:
Light duty
Hard surface cleaners:
Aerosol, other liquid
Scouring cleaners, with or without abrasives
Household detergents, n.s.k.
Soaps, except specialty cleaners, household soaps,
except specialty cleaners, household (products
sold in containers holding 25 Ibs. or less, for
use by family units)
Bars, excluding medical and medicated mechanics'
hand soap and shaving soap:
Toilet soaps
Laundry and other household soaps (bars)
Chips, flakes, granulated, powdered, and sprayed,
including washing powders
G-20
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28413 61 Mechanics' hand soaps, all types, except waterless
28413 98 Other soaps, household
28413 99 Soaps, except specialty household cleaners,
household, n.s.k.
28414 -- Glycerin, natural
28414 11 Crude glycerin 100% basis
28414 31 High gravity, dynamite, and yellow distilled,
10C7o basis
28414 51 Chemically pure 100% basis
Polishes and Sanitation Goods
28422
28422 43
28422 53
28423 --
28423 11
28423 21
28423 31
28423 32
28423 51
28423 71
28423 81
28423 85
28423 93
28423 94
28423 95
28423 96
28423 91
28423 99
Household Bleaches
Household liquid bleaches (sodium hypochlorite,
etc.)
Household dry bleaches (inorganic base)
Specialty cleaning and sanitation products:
Glass window cleaning preparations
Oven cleaners
Toilet bowl cleaner and drain pipe solvent
Disinfectants, for uses other than agriculture
Rug and upholstery cleaners, consumer-type
preparations
Household ammonia
Deoderants, nonpersonal:
Aerosol type
Other
Dry cleaning spotting preparations
Household laundry and ironing aids:
Fabric softeners and rinses
Laundry starch preparations (resin, starch, etc.):
Aerosol
Other liquid, dry
Ironing aids, for fabric
Ironing aids, for iron
Other specialty detergents, including sweeping
compounds and waterless hand cleaners
Specialty cleaning and sanitation products, n.s.k.
G-21
-------
TABLE G-L. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28424 --
28424 11
28424 15
28424 21
28424 23
28424 25
28424 42
28424 44
28424 61
28424 65
28424 98
28424 99
Surface Active Agents
28430 --
28430 11
28430 31
28430 51
28430 71
28430 85
Toilet Preparations
28441 --
28441 33
28441 37
28441 41
Polishing preparations and related products
Automobile polish and cleaners
Furniture polish and cleaners
Floor polish:
Water emulsion
Liquid (other than water emulsion)
Other than liquid form, including cake and paste
Shoe polishes and cleaners:
Liquid
Paste and cake
Leather dressings and finishes, excluding shoe
polish:
Leather blackings and stains
Other leather dressings and stains
Related products, including metal polish a-'d
polishing cloths and papers
Polishing preparations and related products, n.s.k.
Surface active and finishing agents
Assistants and finishes, textile and leather:
Sulfonated oils and fats
Softeners, soluble oils and greases
Other assistants
Finishes
Bulk surfact active agents other than sulfonated
oils and fats:
- Primarily for purposes other than for detergents
(emulsifiers, penetrants, wetting agents, etc.)
- Primarily for detergent purposes
Includes all araphoteric, anionic, cationic, and
nonionic bulk surface active agents that reduce
the surface tension of solvents
Shaving preparations
Shaving soap and cream:
Tube and jar
Aerosols
Stick, powder or cake
G-22
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28441 56
28441 59
28441 99
28442 --
28442 11
28442 99
28443 --
28443 13
28443 21
28443 36
28443 39
28443 41
28443 63
28443 65
28443 98
28443 99
28444 --
28444 11
28444 31
28444 73
28444 98
28445 --
28445 11
Aftershave preparations (all forms)
Other shaving preparations and styptics
Shaving preparations, n.s.k.
Perfumes, toilet water, and colognes
Perfume oil mixtures and blends
Perfumes, liquid and solid
Toilet water and colognes (liquid and solid)
Perfumes, toilet water, and colognes
Hair preparations (including shampoos)
Shampoos, including products with additives for
tints, coloring or dandruff removal
Soap (all forms)
Synthetic organic detergents, liquids, creams,
and gels
Hair tonics, including hair and scalp conditioners
Perms:
Home (complete and refill)
Commercial
Hair dressings, including brilliantines, creams,
and pomades
Hair coloring preparations (bleaches, dyes,
rinses, tints, etc.)
Hair spray, aerosol
Hair rinses (excluding color rinses)
Other hair preparations, including heat setting
wave solutions
Hair preparations, n.s.k.
Dentifrices, including mouthwashes, gargles, and
rinses
Toothpaste, including aerosols
Toothpowder
Mouthwashes and rinses, excluding antiseptic
mouthwashes and gargles
Breath fresheners, aerosol and liquid
Other oral hygiene products, including dental
floss and dental adhesives, excluding tooth-
brushes and toothpicks
Includes denture cleaner
Other cosmetics and toilet preparations
Creams, excluding shaving, hair, and deoderant:
Cleansing creams
G-23
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28445 12
28445 13
28445 14
28445 15
28445 16
28445 17
28445 18
28445 19
28445 21
28445 22
28445 23
28445 27
28445 28
28445 29
28445 41
28445 43
28445 45
28445 48
28445 61
28445 31
28445 98
28445 99
Foundation creams
Lubricating creams, including hormone creams
Other creams
Lotions and oils, including hair, aftershave,
and bath:
Suntan, including oils
Cleansing lotions
Cosmetic oils, including baby oils but excluding
suntan oils
Hand lotions
Other lotions and oils, excluding hair, after-
shave, and bath
Lip preparations (lipstick, rouge, etc.)
Blushers (rouges) excluding lip rouge
Eye preparations (mascara, eye shadow, eyeliners,
eye creams, etc.)
Deoderant (personal):
Underarm:
Aerosol
Liquid, cream, roll-on, etc.
Feminine hygiene deoderants, all types
Powder:
Talcum and toilet powder
Face powder
Liquid and compact, for wet application
Other powder, including foot powder
Bath salts, tablets, oils, and bubble baths
All manicuring preparations, nail lacquers and
enamels, nail lacquer and enamel removers,
other manicuring preparations
Other cosmetics and toilet preparations, including
depilatories
Toilet preparations, n.s.k. for companies with 10
employees or more
Paints and Allied Products
28511 «
28511 11
Exterior oil-type trade sales paint products
Oil and alkyd vehicle paints in paste and semi-
paste form
G-24
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28511 21
28511 22
28511 24
28511 25
28511 27
28511 28
28511 31
28511 32
28511 33
28511 34
28511 35
28511 37
28511 39
28511 99
28512 --
28512 11
28512 16
28512 19
28512 99
28513 «
28513 52
28513 53
28513 54
Oil paints, enamels, and varnishes in ready-mixed
form:
Oil and alkyd vehicle house paints and tinting
bases
Sash, trims, and trellis enamels and tinting bases
Porch and deck enamels including inte Lor-exterior
floor enamels
Undercoaters and primers
Barn and roof paints (excluding bituminous paints
and roof coatings)
Marine paints and enamels (shelf goods)
Metallic paints (aluminum, zinc, bronze, etc.)
Traffic paints (all types, shelf goods, and
highway departments)
Automotive and machinery refinish paints and
enamels, except lacquers
Automotive and machinery refinish primers and
undercoaters
Varnish, oleoresinous (synthetic and natural)
Stains (including shingle and shake)
Other exterior oil paints including bituminous
paints
Exterior oil-type trade sales paint products,
n.s.k.
Exterior water-type trade sales paint products,
including tinting bases
All-purpose water emulsion paints and tinting
bases (excluding exterior-interior water
emulsion paints)
Masonry water emulsion paints and tinting bases
Other exterior water-thinned paints, including
dry types
Exterior water-type trade sales paint products,
n.s.k.
Interior oil-type trade sales paint products
Oil paints, enamels, and varnishes in ready-mixed
form:
Plat wall paints and tinting bases including
semi-paste (oil and alkyd vehicle)
Glass and quick-drying enamels and tinting bases
Semigloss paints and tinting bases
G-25
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28513 56
28513 59
28513 65
28513 67
28513 71
28513 81
28513 99
28514 --
28514 11
28514 21
28514 31
28514 98
28514 99
28515 --
28515 11
28515 21
28515 99
28516 --
28516 11
28516 13
28516 18
28516 31
28516 33
Undercoaters and primers
Other interior oil paints and enamels, N.E.C.
including mill white paints and interior
marine shelf goods
Varnishes:
Varnishes, except shellac varnishes
Shellac varnishes
Stains
Aerosol paints made from paint produced and
packaged in this establishment, or packaged
on contact for you
Interior oil-type trade sales paint products,
n.s.k.
Interior water-type trade sales paint products,
including tinting bases
Flat water emulsion paints and tinting bases
Semigloss water emulsion paints and tinting bases
All-purpose water emulsion paints
Other interior water-thinned paints including
paste and semi-paste
Interior water-type trade sales paint products,
n.s.k.
Trade sales lacquers
Automotive and machinery refinish lacquers
Other trade sales lacquers
Trade sales lacquers, n.s.k.
Industrial product finishes, except lacquers
Industrial maintenance paints:
Interior (specially formulated coatings for special
conditions in the interior o£ industrial plants
requiring protection against extreme temperatures,
fungi, chemicals, fumes, etc.)
Exterior (specially formulated coatings for special
conditions in the exterior of industrial plants
requiring protection against extreme temperatures,
fungi, chemicals, fumes, etc.)
Marine paints, shipbottom, and other specially
formulated paints (excluding shelf goods)
Transportation (original equipment) :
Automobile finishes
Truck and bus finishes
G-26
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28516 35
28516 37
28516 38
28516 41
28516 42
28516 44
28516 45
28516 46
28516 47
28516 48
28516 51
28516 52
28516 53
28516 98
28516 99
28517 --
28517 11
28517 21
28517 31
28517 41
28517 98
28517 99
28518 --
28518 11
28518 21
28518 53
28518 63
28518 98
Railroad finishes
Other transportation equipment, including air-
craft, rockets, and missiles
Appliance, heating equipment, and air-conditioner
finishes
Wood furniture and fixture finishes
Wood and composition board flat stock finishes
Sheet, strip, and coil coatings, including
sidings (excluding containers)
Metal Decorating:
Container and closure finishes
Other metal decorating
Machinery and equipment finishes (including road
building equipment and farm Implements)
(excluding insulating varnish)
Metal furniture and fixture finishes
Paper and paperboard, excluding pigment binder
Insulating varnishes, electrical types
Powdered coatings
Other industrial product finishes (excluding semi-
manufactured products such as pigment disper-
sions and ink vehicles)
Industrial product finishes, except lacquers, n.s.k.
Industrial lacquers, including acrylics
Automotive
Wood
Fabricated metal
Paper and paperboard
Industrial lacquers for other end uses
Industrial lacquers, including acrylics, n.s.k.
Putty and allied products
Wood and textile preservatives (nonpressure type)
Wood fillers and sealers
Putty and glazing compounds
Faint and varnish removers
Other allied paint products, including brush
cleaners
G-27
-------
TABLE G-l. (Coatttxued)
Product Code
Product Name
28518 99
28519 --
28519 11
28519 41
28519 51
28519 77
28519 99
Gum and Wood Chemicals
28611 --
28611 13
28611 23
28611 31
28611 98
28612
28612 11
28612 21
28612 52
28612 83
28612 91
28612 94
28612 96
Cyclic Intermediates and
Putty and allied products, n.s.k.
Miscellaneous paint products
Thiimers for dopes, lacquers, and oleoresinous
thinners, including mixtures and proprietary
thinners
Aerosol paints made from purchased pai.iC
Organisols and plastisols, other than coatings
Miscellaneous related paint products, e.g.,
pigment dispersions, ink vehicles, etc.
Miscellaneous paint products, n.s.k.
Softwood dis-tillation products
Wood turpentine
Pine oil
Wood rosin
Other derivatives of softwood distillation,
including pine tar, pine tar oil, charcoal,
and charcoal briquettes
Softwood distillation products, n.s.k.
Other gum and wood chemicals
Gum turpentine
Rosin
Hardwood distillation products:
Charcoal, excluding briquettes
Charcoal briquettes, including blends with
lignite or other materials
Natural tanning and dyeing materials and chrome
tanning mixtures
Crude tall oils
Refined tall oils (containing less than 90% free
fatty acids, including tall oil resins other
than, tall oil rosins)
Rosin (tall oil)
Crudes
28651 11
28652 11
28653 11
28655 11
Cyclic (coal tar) intermediates
Synthetic organic dyes
Synthetic organic pigments, lakes, and toners
Cyclic (coal tar) crudes
G-28
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code Product Name
Industrial Organic Chemicals
28691 11 Miscellaneous cyclic (coal tar) chemical products
28692 13 Miscellaneous acyclic chemicals and chemical
products, excluding urea
28693 -- Synthetic organic chemicals, N.E.C. except bulk
surface active agents
28693 11 Flavor and perfume materials
28693 31 Rubber-procfessing chemicals
28693 51 Plasticizers
28693 99 Synthetic organic materials, N.E.C., n.s.k.
28694 11 Pesticides and other synthetic organic agricul-
tural chemicals, except preparations
28695 -- Ethyl alcohol and other industrial chemicals, iX.E.C.
28695 11 Pure (natural) ethyl alcohol and denatured (special
or complete) ethyl alcohol including natural and
synthetic, for purposes other than rubbing
28695 31 Flavor oil mixtures and blends
28695 37 Reagent and high purity grades of organic chemicals
refined from purchased technical grades
28695 51 Natural organic chemicals, N.E.C.
28695 98 Other industrial organic chemicals
28695 99 Other industrial chemicals, n.s.k.
Nitrogenous Fertilizers
28731 -- Synthetic ammonia, nitric acid, and ammoniun
compounds
28731 11 Nitric acid (1007. HNOj)
Ammonia (100% HN3):
28731 31 Anhydrous
28731 33 Aqua
Ammonium c ompound s:
28731 59 Chloride (1007. NH^Cl), gray, white
Other ammonium compounds
Nitrate (100% NH4N03):
Fertilizer use:
28731 51 Solution
28731 52 Solid
28731 53 Explosive and other uses
G-29
-------
TABLE G-l. (Contlaued)
Product Code
Product Name
28731 55
28731 57
Phosjhatic Fertilizers
28741 99
28741 81
28741 85
28742
28742 15
28742 41
28742 51
28742 61
28742 71
28743 --
28743 13
28743 17
28743 25
28743 31
28743 51
28743 78
28743 99
Nitrogen solutions, including mixtures containing
urea (100% N)
Sulfate (other than by-product coke oven)
(100% NH) S0)
Phosphoric acid
Phosphoric acid from phosphorus
Phosphoric acid from other sources (phosphate
rock, etc.)
Superphosphate and other phosphatic fertilizer
materials
Normal and enriched (less than 42/i
phosphates
suPer"
Triple (42% P-0 and over) superphosphates
Ammonium phosphates (chemically processed nitrogen-
phosphorus materials comprising liquid and solid
fertilizer grades of monammcnium and diarranoniuni
phosphates and their processed combinations with
ammonium sulfate
Other phosphatic fertilizer materials (chemically
processed materials such as ammonium phosphate
potash mixtures, nitrophospliate, calcium meta-
phosphates, sodium phosphates, and wet-base
goods)
Defluorinated superphosphate and phosphate rock
(feed grade)
Mixed fertilizers, produced from one or more
materials made in the same plant
Complete mixtures - grades guaranteeing N, P.O ,
and K_0 (excluding ammonium phosphate potash
mixtures, nitrophosphates, calcium me taphos-
phates, sodium phosphates, and wet-base goods):
Shipped in dry form
Shipped in liquid form
Incomplete mixtures, including dry and liquid
forms:
Grades guaranteeing N and P-0 only, including
ammonia ted superphosphates
Grades guaranteeing P-0, and JC-O only
Grades guaranteeing N and K.O only
Grades guaranteeing N, P205' or K?°
Mixed fertilizers, n.s.k.
G-30
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
Fertilizers, Mixing Only
28752 --
28752 13
28752 17
28752 25
28752 31
28752 51
28752 78
AEricultural
Fertilizers, mixing only
Complete mixtures (grades guaranteeing N, P.O ,
and K20): 5
Shipped in dry form
Shipped in liquid form
Incomplete mixtures, including dry and liquid
forms:
Grades guaranteeing N and P,0. only, including
ammoniated superphosphates
c and K.O only
Grades guaranteeing
Grades guaranteeing N and K 0 only
Grades guaranteeing N, P.O., or K.O only
Chemicals, N.E.C.
28791 --
28791 19
28791 13
28791 32
28791 33
28791 39
28791 43
28791 61
28791 49
Insecticidal preparations (formulations), pri-
marily for agricultural, garden, and health
service use
Insecticidal and other fungicidal preparations
(formulations) primarily for agricultural use,
excluding aerosols and fly sprays:
Arsenic compounds (calcium and lead arsenate)
Arsenical insecticides, including Paris Green and
other copper arsenicals or mixtures containing
arsenicals but excluding weed killers
Benzene hexachloride and/or lindane preparations
with DDT
DDT containing preparations:
Preparations containing DDT as active ingredient,
preparation of DDT and other toxicants
Chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticidal preparations
other than those containing hexachloride or DDT
Organic phosphate containing preparations, prep-
arations containing parathion as the active
ingredient, or methyl parathion as the active
ingredient, or other organic phosphates as the
active ingredient
Botanical preparations and/or concentrates for
agricultural use
Other agricultural insecticidal preparations and/
or concentrates including petroleum oil sprays
and emulsions without other toxicants, excluding
botanicals
Herbicidal preparations (formulations) primarily
for agricultural, garden, and health service use:
G-31
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28792 81
28792 82
28792 83
28792 84
28792 85
28793 15
28793 65
28793 67
28793 69
28793 71
28793 98
28794 --
28794 12
28794 15
28794 35
28794 71
28794 99
Adhesivea and Sealants
28913
28913 11
28913 14
28913 26
28913 41
Sodium arsenate
Sodium chlorate preparations
2, 4-D (2, 4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid) and
derivatives
2, 4, 5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid and derivatives
Other weed killers (hydrocarbon, etc.) including
defoliants (except sodium chlorate preparations),
desiccants (including arsenic acid), algaecides,
carbonates (including CIPC, EPIC, CDAA, etc.)
Fungicides:
Sulfur-containing preparations, including wettable
sulfur, sulfur dust, and lime sulfur
Seed treatment compounds (insecticides, fungicides,
and inoculants)
Copper-containing dry preparations, including dry
Bordeaux mixtures but excluding Paris Green and
copper sulfate
Other fungicidal preparations for agricultural use
Soil fumigants
Other agricultural chemicals, N.E.C. such as dis-
infectants, animal dips, and soil conditioners
Household insecticides and repellants, including
Industrial extenninants
Insecticides for flying insects, excluding fumigants:
Aerosols
Nonaerosols
Repellants and attractants for insects, birds,
fish, and other animals
Rodenticides, fumigants other than soil fumigants,
including space
Household insecticides and repellants, n.s.k.
Natural base glues and adhesives
Animal glues:
Hide (dry forms)
Bone, green and extracted (dry forms)
Flexible, non-warp, and liquid glue (not glue stock)
Protein adhesives:
Casein adhesives
G-32
-------
TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28913 49
28913 51
28913 55
28913 78
28914
28914 11
28914 48
28914 81
28914 83
28914 99
28915
Explosives
28921
Other, including blood, fish, soybeans, albumen,
etc.
Vegetables adhesives:
Dextrines
Starches
Bituminous adhesives, asphaltic and coal tar
Other natural base glue and adhesives made from
natural gums, shellac, silicates, lacquers,
oleoresinous varnishes, etc. except rubber
Synthetic resin and rubber adhesives, including
all types of bonding and laminating adhesives
Epoxy adhesives
Phenolics and derivatives adhesives
Phenolics and modified phenolics
Resorcinol and modified resorcitiol
Urea and modified urea
Vinyl type adhesives:
Pol/vinyl acetate:
Latex type
Solvent type
Polyvinyl chloride and copolymers
Other vinyl polymer type adhesives
Cellulosic type adhesives, nitrocellulose and others
Acrylic adhesives
Polyester adhesives
Polyamide adhesives
Hot melt adhesives, including nylon, polyolefin,
and other hot melts
Adhesive films, all types, including pressure
sensitive structural and nonstructural adhesive
films
Rubber and synthetic resin combinations
Rubber cement for sale as such:
Latex type
Solvent type
Synthetic resins and rubber adhesives, n.s.k.
Calking compounds and sealants
Sealants, natural base:
Calks, modified and unmodified oil base
Bituminous base (coal tar or asphalt)
Sealants, synthetic base:
General performance sealants (PVAC, butyl,
vinyl, acrylic, neoprene, etc.)
Special performance sealants (epoxy, ure-
thane, polysulfide, silicone, etc.)
Preformed tapes (butyl, polybutene, polyiso-
butylene, etc.)
Explosives, propellants, and blasting accessories
(except government-owned, contractor-operated
plants)
G-33
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TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28921 17
Explosives:
Anwionium nitrate, fuel sensitized
Slurry (all types)
Other industrial explosives, including black
blasting powder, shaped charges, liquid oxygen
explosives, nitrogiycerin sold as such, etc.
Propellatits, including smokeless and black powder
Pennissibles (approved by Bureau of Mine" for
underground coal mining)
Blasting accessories:
Detonators :
Blasting caps, electric, delay
Blasting caps, electric, except delay
Other explosives, including military detonators,
jet starters, fuse and explosive assemblies
Safety fuse
Blasting caps, except electric (detonators)
Blasting fuse
28921 43
28921 45
28921 71
28921 61
28931 --
28931 05
28931 06
28931 15
28931 19
28932 --
28932 31
28932 35
28932 39
28933
28933 43
28933 45
28934
28934 82
28935 --
28935 71
28935 85
Letterpress inks (black and color)
News inks
Publication inks
Packaging inks
Other letterpress inks
Lithographic and offset inks (black and color)
News inks, publication inks
Packaging inks
Other lithographic and offset inks
Gravure inks
Packaging inks
Publication inks, other gravure inks
Flexographic inks
Packaging inks:
Paper and board, film and foil, other
flexographic inks
Printing inks, N.E.C.
Textile printing inks
Screen printing inks
Other printing inks including stencil inks
G-34
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TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
.Carbon Black
28959 11
Chemical Preparations
28991 11
28992 --
26992 11
28992 23
28992 53
28992 61
28992 83
28992 92
28992 99
28994
28994 11
28994 31
28995 --
Carbon black (channel and furnace process only)
Evaporated salt (bulk, pressed blocks, and
packaged)
Fatty acids
Saturated acids:
Stearic acid (40-50% stearic content)
Hydrogenated animal and vegetable acids:
Hydrogenatcd fatty acids having a maximum titer
of 60 and a minimum l.V. of 5
Hydrogenated fatty acids having a minimum titer
of 57 C and a maximum l.V. under 5
High palmitic (over 60 palmitic, l.V. maximum 12)
Hydrogenated fish and marine mammal fatty acids:
Coconut-type acids, l.V. of 5 and over, including
palm kernel and babassu, and hydrogenated
coconut acid
Fractionated short-chain fatty acids with l.V.
below 5 such as caprylic, capric, lauric, and
myristic
Unsaturated acids:
Oleic acid, including white oleic and red oil
Other unsaturated fatty acids, including animal
fatty acids other than oleic (l.V. 36 to 80),
vegetable or marine (l.V. maximum 115), and
other unsaturated fatty acids (l.V. 116 and over)
Tall oil fatty acids:
Tall oil fatty acids containing less than 2%
rosin acids and more than 95% fatty acids
Tall oil fatty acids containing 27, rosin acids
or more
Fatty acids, n.s.k.
Gelatin, except ready-to-eat desserts
Photographic grade
Technical (inedible) grade
Other gelatin products, except ready-to-eat
desserts, including unfilled capsules and
gelatin sheets for theatrical use
Food grade (excluding pharmaceutical and photo-
graphic)
Pharmaceutical grade (except unfilled capsules)
Essential oils, fireworks, and pyrotechnics, sizes,
and chemical preparations, N.E.C.
G-35
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TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code
Product Name
28995 11
28995 12
28995 13
28995 15
28995 19
28995 29
28995 35
28995 39
28995 41
28995 49
28995 55
28995 59
28995 61
28995 63
28995 72
28995 77
28995 81
28995 87
28995 91
28995 93
Essential oils, unblended (natural):
Citrus oils:
Orange
Lemon
Other
Peppermint oils
Other natural essential oils
Fireworks and pyrotechnics (including flares,
jet fuel igniters, railroad torpedoes, toy
pistol caps, etc.)
Chemical preparations, N.E.C.:
Automotive chemicals:
Antifreeze preparations:
Permanent type
Other
Other automotive chemicals (including battery
acid, deicing fluid, carbon-removing solvents,
etc.)
Concrete curing and floor hardening material1;
Drilling mud materials, mud thinners, thickeners,
and purifiers
Foundry supplies, chemical (including binders,
core oils, core wash, etc.)
Insulation products (heat, electrical, other)
Metal treating compounds (non-oil base) for
nitriding, pickling, drawing, and cutting
Oil-treating compounds (non-oil base)
Sizes:
Rosin sizes
Other, including dextrin sizes
Inks (writing and stamp pad ink, including
indelible ink and marking fluid, but excluding
drawing inks)
Water-treating compounds:
Boiler compounds
Other water-softening compounds
Waterproofing compounds (electrical, leather,
masonry, textile, etc.)
Vitreous enamel (frit)
Plating compounds
Lighter fluids (cigarette, charcoal, etc.)
G-36
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TABLE G-l. (Continued)
Product Code Product Name
28995 95 Waxes (animal, vegetable, mineral, including
blends) excluding pure petroleum waxes
Other industrial chemical specialties, including
fluxes and plastic wood preparations
28995 99 Essential oils, fireworks and pyrotechnics,
sizes, and chemical preparations, N.i.C., n.s.k.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures. U.S. Government
Printing Office (1963, 1967, 1972)
N.E.C. - Not elsewhere classified
n.s.k. - Not specified by kind
G-37
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(I'lcase read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-600/5-78-01]
4. TITLE AMD SUBTITLE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ECONOMICS-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR
PROJECTING FUTURE POLLUTION PROBLEMS
5. REPORT DATE
June 1978 issuing date
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
PB258684
7. AUTHOR(S)
Gary S. Stacey, James E. FT inn
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAMF AND ADDRESS
BatteHe Columbus Laboratories
505 King Avenue
Columbus, OH 43201
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
1HA095
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-01-1837
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Health and Ecological Effects - Wash., DC
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC 20460
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/18
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
The research in this project was devoted to developing a methodology having
utility for an ultimate purpose of identifying potential future toxic substance
pollution problems. An approach was desired that would be systematic, comprehensive,
and futuristic. The methodology that has resulted is an economics-based one that
initiates the identification of problems by focusing on the potential for their
occurrence in the production, exchange, and consumption of goods and services.
The methodology was developed and tested by exercising the various components.
The steps in the approach are to rank products (exchanged in the marketplace)
according to the potential they have for being associated with future pollution probl
For the high ranked products, additional information on the chemical constituents of
the product are identified. The final step is to analyze the chemical constituents tc
determine which chemicals occur frequently and in large quantities. At the same time
the potential that each of the chemicals has for resulting in toxic substance problems
would be assessed.
In ranking the products parameters on historical growth, future growth, dispersic
technical change, and value of shipments were developed and used. A specific group oi
products was examined to determine their chemical content. The results of this
effort showed that identifying chemical constituents of products required considerable
resources. The final step of analyzing chemicals to determine frequency and quantity
17was developed conceptually
could not be applied.
DESCRIPTORS
Toxicity
Pollution
Production Capacity
Ranking
Growth Trends
Consumption Rate
Sales
b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
Toxic Substances
Economics
Exchange
Dispersion
Technical Change
Value of Shipments
Chemicals and Allied
Standard Industrial
Prod
c. COSATl l-'icld/Croup
JCtS
ifi
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release to Public - Available through:
National Technical Information Service
Springfield, Va. 22151
19. SECURITY CLASS (Tills Report I
Unclassified
21. NO. OF
198
AGES
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
»U.S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFflCE: t»7d 2iji>-(l/75
-------
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tnvirnomental Protection
Agency
Official Business
Penalty for Private Use
S300
Special Fourth Class Rale
Book
Postage and Fees Paid
EPA
Permit No G-35
Environmental Research
Information Center (TlOSI
Cincinnati OH 45268
EPA-600/5-78-011
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