Estimation and evaluation of cancer
risks attributed to air Dollution
in southwest Chicago final summary
report
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vvEPA
Estimation and
Evaluation of Cancer
Risks Attributed to Air
Pollution in Southwest
Chicago
Final Summary Report
Submitted To:
U.S. EPA Region 5
Air and Radiation Division
By:
ViGYAN Inc.
April 1993
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ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION OF CANCER RISKS
ATTRIBUTED TO AIR POLLUTION IN
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO
Final Summary Report
Prepared For
Ms. Patricia Morris, Air and Radiation Division
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5
Under EPA Contract No. 68-D0-0018
Work Assignment No. 11-13
By:
VfGYAN Inc.
5203 Leesburg Pike, Suite 900
Falls Church, VA 22041
April 1993
Printed on Recycled Paper
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ii
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DISCLAIMER
This summary report was furnished to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in
fulfillment of Work Assignment No. 11-13, Contract No. 68-D0-0018. The opinions, findings,
and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. Similarly, mention of company or product names should not
be considered as an endorsement either by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or by
ViGYAN Inc.
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iv
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Vi'GYAN Inc. (Vi'GYAN) would like to acknowledge the contributions of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) for making this study possible. Funding for this
work was provided jointly by the Air and Radiation Division of the U.S. EPA Region 5 and U.S.
EPA's Office of Mobile Sources. Patricia Morris (U.S. EPA's Technical Representative), Pamela
Blakley, John Summerhays, and Xuan-Mai Tran, all of Region 5's Air and Radiation Division,
and Rich Cook and Rich Wilcox of the Office of Mobile Sources, supplied valuable suggestions,
comments, and input in the development of this report. Technical assistance from other agencies
such as the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (Sam Long) and the Department of
Aviation of the City of Chicago (David Suomi) is highly appreciated as well.
VfGYAN would like to acknowledge the role of U.S. EPA Region 5's Southeast Chicago
study and Transboundary study. The basic approach utilized by Region 5 for risk assessment in
the Southeast Chicago study, including assumptions and emissions inventory, was used in this
report. While the results discussed in this report are the work of Vi'GYAN, some parts of this
report have been taken from Estimation and Evaluation of Cancer Risks Attributed to Air
Pollution in Southeast Chicago (Summerhays, 1989) and The Transboundary Air Toxics Study
(Blakley, 1990). Additionally, the Executive Summary and Chapter I of this report were prepared
by the Region 5 Technical Representative.
v
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vi
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pa2e
DISCLAIMER iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT v
LIST OF APPENDICES ix
LIST OF FIGURES xi
LIST OF TABLES xiii
CONGRESSIONAL REQUEST FOR STUDY xv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvii
CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
L2 Limitations 2
CHAPTER IL STUDY DESIGN 3
H.l Geographic Coverage 3
H.2 Pollutants 3
H3 Unit Risk Factors 7
CHAPTER nL STUDY METHODOLOGY 11
m.l Emissions Inventory 11
HI. 1.1 Southeast Chicago Inventory 11
HI. 1.2 Additional Point Sources 12
HI. 1.3 Emissions at Midway Airport 14
vii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT'D)
Page
IE. 1.4 Nonroad Mobile Source Emissions Inventory 14
HI. 1.5 Emissions to the North of the Receptor Area 17
m.1.6 Revisions to the Southeast Chicago Vehicular Emissions Inventory 17
ED. 1.7 Revisions to the Southeast Chicago POM Emissions Inventory 18
ID. 1.8 A Note on Chromium Emissions 18
m.2 Air Dispersion Modeling 21
EQ.2.1 Background Concentrations 21
ITT-3 Monitored Concentration vs. Modeled Concentration 22
CHAPTER IV. RISK ASSESSMENT 27
IV.l Risk Assessment Methodology 27
IV.2 Estimated Hazard Indices 29
IV.2.1 Overall Risk Assessment Results 29
IV.2.2 Risk Assessment by Source Category 34
IV.2.3 Risk Assessment by Pollutant 41
IV3 Peak Lifetime Cancer Cases 49
IVA Risk Assessment of Proposed Facilities 49
CHAPTER V. UNCERTAINTIES 53
REFERENCES 57
viii
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LIST OF APPENDICES
Page
APPENDIX A.
Emission Estimates for Additional Sources A.1
APPENDIX B.
Midway Emissions Inventory and Dispersion Modeling Results B.l
APPENDIX C.
Revised Road Vehicle Emissions Inventory C.l
APPENDIX D.
Revisited POM Emissions Sources D.l
APPENDIX E.
Annual Emissions by Pollutant/Source Category E.1
APPENDIX F.
Detailed Modeling and Risk Assessment Methodologies F.l
APPENDIX G.
Top Five Source Contributors to Cancer Cases G.l
APPENDIX H.
Top Four Pollutant Contributors to Cancer Cases H.l
APPENDIX I.
Potential Impacts of Robbins Incinerator and Sun Chemical 1.1
ix
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X
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LIST OF FIGURES
1 Study Area and Neighboring Counties 4
2 Study Area and Vicinity 5
3 Receptor Grid Network 6
4 Midway Airport Emission Grid Network 16
5 2-kro by 2-km Area Emission Grids in the Northern Boundary 19
6 Sources of Air Toxics 20
7 Modeled Annual Concentrations at Receptor Grid: Arsenic 25
8 Modeled Annual Concentrations at Receptor Grid: Benzene 26
9 Population Profile at Receptor Grid 28
10 Aggregate Lifetime Individual Risks at Receptor Grid 32
11 Aggregate Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid 33
12 Contributions to Cancer Risk: by Source Category 36
13 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: Road Vehicles 37
14 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: Chrome Platers 38
15 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: Nonroad Engines 39
16 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: Aircraft Engines 40
17 Contributions to Cancer Risk: by Pollutant 44
18 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: 13*Butadiene 45
19 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: POM/Particulate Matter 46
xi
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LIST OF FIGURES (CONT'D)
Page
20 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: Hexavalent Chromium 47
21 Lifetime Cancer Cases at Receptor Grid: Formaldehyde 48
22 Contributions to Cancer Risk at Peak Receptor: by Source Category 50
23 Contributions to Cancer Risk at Peak Receptor: by Pollutant 51
xii
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LIST OF TABLES
Paj
1 Carcinogenicity of Pollutant
2 POM/Particulate Matter Carcinogenicity
3 Additional Sources and Estimated Emissions
4 Nonroad Mobile Source Toxic Fractions of THC
5 Nonroad Mobile Source Emissions Inventory
6 Comparison of Monitored and Modeled Concentrations: Particulate Toxics . .
7 Comparison of Monitored and Modeled Concentrations: Organic Toxics ....
8 Aggregate Hazard Indices at Receptor Grid
9 Aggregate Hazard Indices by Source Category
10 Aggregate Hazard Indices by Pollutant
11 Aggregate Hazard Indices by Pollutant by POM Emission Origin
xiii
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xiv
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ITm D'Jtoct iu»»o<«
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Congress of the Bmted States
House of Ueprtsoitatfoes
^Daahington, ©£ 20515
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CC: ORA
CANAVAN
WESTLAKE
ESD(input)
August 4, 1990
Valdas V. Adamkus
Regional Administrator
United States Environmental Protection Agency
230 S. Dearborn
Chicago, IL 60604
Dear Mr. Adamkus,
I am writing this letter regarding concerns which I have
about the air quaiity in part of the Congressional district which
I represent. In light of these concerns. I am respectfully
requesting that the United States Environmental Protection Agency
conduct a detailed air toxins study in the Chicago area
encompassed by Archer Ave. on the north. 65th st. on the south,
Harlem Ave. on the west and Cicero Ave. on the East.
The reason I am requesting this detailed air toxins study,
for this community, is because this area is a highly residential
and is currently burdened by a number of heavy industries. In
addition the aforementioned area has been targeted for additional
incinerators and chemical boilers.
The community for which I have requested the air quality
study is already shouldering its fair share of the burden of
coping with the byproducts of our modern technological society.
This area is directly adjacent to the Metropolitan Sanitary
District of Chicago and thus most cope with the foul odors that
it, as well as a number of closely located industrial facilities,
emit into the air each and every day. Further, this area must
cope with the toxins emitted into the air by the large volume of
trucks and autos which use closely located Interstate 55 and the
many airplanes which use nearby Midway Airport. Immediately
north of this area. Koppers Inc. has been newly licensed to
operate a hazardous waste incinerator. As if all the previously
sources of pollution is not enough, the General Electric
Corporation has applied for a license to operate a PCB Recovery
operation facility.
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Having a PCB recover operation facility located immediately
adjacent to a highly residential community causes me great
concern. PCBs are strongly suspected to be linked to cancer and
birth defects. I do not believe that it is fair to subject the
people of this residential area and their families to these
risks. To have such a facility in this area would greatly reduce
their quality of life. Further, I am very concerned by the
potential disaster that could happen if an industrial accident
occurred with a compound as dangerous as PCBs. Hence, 1 am also
respectfully requesting the I am provided with a detailed account
of all the safety records for the General Electric Corporation.
In addition to the concerns for the health of the people of
this community and nearby affected communities there are very
genuine environmental issues involved. In regard to General
Electric's proposed PCB recovery operation facility, the
controversial chemical freon is also a byproduct of the process.
Freon is known to promote the deterioration of the earth's ozone
layer, thus reducing our protection freon dangerous ultraviolet
lights.
Please keep ray Chief of Staff James L&ski informed of the
status of my requests. You can contact Mr. .aski at my District
office 312-582-7323. Thank your for your cot deration.
As always, I remain.
William 0.
William 0. Lipinski
Member of Congress
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report estimates the cancer risks associated with 30 air pollutants in the Southwest
Chicago area. The study area, approximately 16 square miles including Midway Airport and
neighboring suburbs, is bordered on the north by Pershing Road, on the south by 70th Street,
Harlem Avenue on the west, and Pulaski Avenue on the east. About 93,854 people live in the
study area.
Significant uncertainties are associated with estimating risk. These are due to data
limitations and assumptions inherent in our current risk assessment methodology. The numerical
estimates presented in this report should be viewed only as rough indications of the potential for
cancer risk caused by a limited group of pollutants found in the ambient air. A detailed
discussion of uncertainties inherent in this study is contained in Chapter V.
The study's purpose is to estimate cancer nsks that may be attributed to toxicants in the
ambient air in Southwest Chicago. U.S. EPA estimated risks for 30 air pollutants, including 7
known human carcinogens, 21 probable human carcinogens and 2 possible human carcinogens.
According to statistics from the American Cancer Society, about one in three Americans
will contract cancer over the course of an average lifetime. Of the approximately 31,000 cancer
cases that can reasonably be projected for this population, the report finds that 20 (or about one
case every three and a half years) may be caused by the air pollutants studied. There are known
and suspected risk factors that can increase the likelihood of contracting the disease (including
both voluntary and involuntary exposures to carcinogens).
This cancer risk from toxic air pollution is of the magnitude of 2 chances in 10,000. This
is consistent with other urban area studies that have estimated cancer risks from air pollution.
These other studies reported risks ranging from a low of 1 in 10,000 to a high of 10 in 10,000.
Cars, trucks, buses, and trains are the major contributors of carcinogens accounting for
about 25% of the total estimated cancer cases. Background concentrations of formaldehyde and
carbon tetrachloride account for 19%. The third major contributor in the area is chrome plating
operations accounting for about 16% of the total estimated cancer cases. Other significant
contributors are aircraft engine emissions from Midway Airport and nonroad mobile sources
(such as lawn mowers and snowblowers). Each of these two sources contributes approximately
11% of the total estimated cancer cases. These combined sources account for 81% of the
estimated air-pollution-related cancer risks in the area.
Based on U.S. EPA unit risks used in this study, 1,3-butadiene is the most significant
pollutant that contributes to cancer risk in the area. The second highest pollutant contributor is
polycyclic organic compounds (POM). Both these two pollutant contributors are emitted mostly
from mobile sources such as automobile, aircraft, and nonroad equipment engines. Other major
pollutant contributors are hexavalent chromium (commonly used in the chrome-plating process)
and formaldehyde (generated mostly by photochemical reactions).
xvii
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CONCLUSION
The cancer risks from air pollutants estimated in this study are consistent with the risks
found in other large urban areas. The study's findings parallel similar studies in other major
urban areas of the United States and are typical of highly industrialized communities.
U.S. EPA recognizes the air quality in urban areas must be improved and is taking steps
to address the air pollutants that adversely affect human health. The 1990 amendments to the
Clean Air Act specifically address many of the sources of air pollution common to urban areas.
Generally speaking, the Chicago metropolitan area as a whole should experience a dramatic and
visible improvement in air quality as many specific provisions of the new Federal law are
implemented.
U.S. EPA's actions include stricter regulation and enforcement of emissions of air
toxicants including many of those studied in this report. Transportation control measures, use
of cleaner fuels, vapor recovery at gas stations, and stricter controls on consumer solvents are
only a few of the changes that will soon affect every person in the metropolitan area.
xviii
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Final Summary Report
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
This summary report presents the results of our assessment of the carcinogenic risks
attributed to air pollution in Southwest Chicago, impacted by the urban air toxics emitted from
the surrounding area. This study assists the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)
Region 5 in estimating and evaluating the cancer risks attributed to air pollution in the Southwest
Chicago area.
This study may be considered in the context of the national concern about urban air toxics
issues. A 1985 U.S. EPA report entitled The Air Toxics Problem in the United States: An
Analysis of Cancer Risks for Selected Pollutants estimated that as many as 1,800 to 2,400 cancer
cases per year may be attributed nationally to air pollution (not including indoor radon). This
report indicates that while individual industrial operations may lead to high localized risks, a
much greater share of the cumulative risk from air toxicants comes from activities that are more
population-oriented, such as driving motor vehicles and heating with fireplaces and woodstoves.
In fact, limited monitoring data in some large cities indicated that even in residential and
commercial areas, health risks approach those found near the highest risk industrial facilities.
These risks arise from the multiple sources of emissions and multiple pollutants that exist in all
urban areas. Since 61% of the United States population lives in urbanized areas, and the
exposure to high urban toxics extends throughout these urban areas, urban air toxics exposure
appears to be the major risk factor for cases of cancer attributable to air pollution. Various
studies suggest that cancer risks from air pollution throughout urban areas are commonly in the
range of 1 x 10"' (i.e., 1 case per thousand people exposed for a lifetime) to 1 x 10"4 (1 case in
10,000). Given the general national picture of urban air toxics risks, the purpose of the
Southwest Chicago study is to define in more detail the relative contributions of various source
types and pollutants to that risk in this geographic area.
This study focused on atmospheric emission of 30 pollutants which U.S. EPA considers
to be carcinogens. Some of these pollutants have been shown to be carcinogenic based on human
exposure and others have been implicated by animal studies.
The National Academy of Sciences has defined risk assessment as a 4 step process:
hazard identification, exposure assessment, assessment of dose-response relationships, and risk
characterization. The hazard identified for assessment in this study is cancer due to ambient air
contaminants. The exposure assessment principally involves estimating ambient atmospheric
concentration, that for most pollutants were estimated by deriving an inventory of emissions, and
then estimating atmospheric dispersion of these emissions. The assessment of dose-response
April 1993
Page 1
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Final Summary Report
relationships involves derivation of a unit risk factor, that expresses the probability or risk of
contracting cancer that is associated with exposure to a unit concentration of air pollution.
Finally, risk characterization involves deriving various measures of risk. The simplest
measure is individual risk representing the risk attributable to air contaminants at a specific
geographic location. An alternative and more appropriate measure of risk is the number of
cancer cases estimated to occur among the population in the study area attributable to air
contaminants. In addition to estimating these general measures of cancer risk, this study also
investigated the origins of these risks and incidences. For example, which source types and
which pollutants are the most probable causes of these individual and area-wide risks estimated
to result from air pollution in the Southwest Chicago area.
Using the Agency's well-established dispersion models, such as the Industrial Source
Complex - Long Term (ISCLT) and Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM), with carefully
selected meteorological and emissions inventory data, air toxics concentrations in the receptor
grid network from various point and area sources can be predicted. Based on the estimated
concentrations, environmental hazard indices such as lifetime individual risks and lifetime cancer
incidences can be calculated at the receptors to support urban toxics and risk assessment studies
for the designated study area.
It must be noted that the risk estimates presented in this report should be regarded as
only rough approximations of total cancer cases and individual lifetime risks, and are best used
in a relative sense, Estimates for individual pollutants are highly uncertain and should be used
with particular caution.
12 LIMITATIONS
To put the air toxics risk in perspective, cancer risks due to other forms of environmental
pollution must be considered. Other exposure routes include exposure through drinking water,
skin contact, eating fish from or swimming in lakes that may contain contaminants, and exposure
to indoor air contaminants including radon. This study however focused on air pollution risks
and did not evaluate risks from other forms of exposure to environmental contamination. Also,
other air pollutants that cannot be quantitatively evaluated may cause significant risks.
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Final Summary Report
CHAPTER n
STUDY DESIGN
n.l GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE
The target area of the study is encompassed approximately by Pershing Road on the north,
70th Street on the south, Harlem Avenue on the west, and Pulaski Avenue on the east. To ensure
that this area was included in the study in its entirety, a slightly larger area was determined to
construct our receptor grid network system. In Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM)
coordinates, the designated receptor grid network extends from 4623.62 to 4630.12 kilometers
northing and from 433.24 to 440.04 kilometers easting in zone 16. The uniform distances
between two adjacent receptors are 0.8125 kilometers on the UTM north (UTMY) axis and 0.85
kilometers on the UTM east (UTMX) axis. This receptor grid network comprises 64 (8 x 8)
rectangular grids. Figures 1 to 3 portray the geographic coverage of the study area.
For purposes of this study, the "Southwest Chicago" receptor area was defined as an area
that is approximately a 4-mile square, having a total area of 16 square miles. This area covers
populated areas around Midway Airport The total population of the receptor area is
approximately 93,854 persons.
IL2 POLLUTANTS
Not all pollutants recorded in applicable emissions inventories were included in the study.
Only 30 carcinogenic pollutants were studied for their hazardous impacts over, the study area.
Among these 30, several represent mixtures of compounds. Polycyclic organic matter (POM)
represents a class of compounds including benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P). POM is itself a component
of the solvent extractable fraction of particulate matter. Dioxins represent a class of 75
chlorinated dibenzo-dioxins and 135 chlorinated dibenzo-furans. Other mixtures of compounds
in this study are coke oven emissions, gasoline vapors, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs).
The cancer causing air toxics considered in this study and their carcinogenic measures are listed
in Tables 1 and 2. For more details on the pollutants studied, please refer to Estimation and
Evaluation of Cancer Risks Attributed to Air Pollution in Southeast Chicago (Summerhays,
1989). Other potentially hazardous air pollutants such as mercury and lead are not included
either because they are considered not to be carcinogens or because quantifiable unit risk factors
are not available. For example, there is no current evidence that mercury is a carcinogen.
Animal studies have concluded that lead is a probable human carcinogen, however, the cancer
risk is not quantifiable.
April 1993
Page 3
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Southwest Chicago Study
Study Area and Neighboring Counties
Lake
Michigan
Receptor Network
FIGURE 1
Page 4
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Southwest Chicago Study
Study Area and Vicinity
N. Riverside •
Riverside
Lyons*
Chicago
Bridgeview
Hometown
Receptor Area
*
FIGURE 2
Page 5
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Southwest Chicago Study
Receptor Grid Network
Pershing Road
4630.12
c
1
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Final Summary Report
H3 UNIT RISK FACTORS
The unit risk factor is defined as an estimate of the probability that an individual will
develop cancer when continuously exposed to a pollutant at an ambient concentration of one
microgram per cubic meter (ug/m3) for 70 years. The cancer risk estimates arc based on upper
bound estimates of unit risk, except for class A carcinogens. Unit risks for class A carcinogens
are based on human data. The estimate of cancer risk for each pollutant, considering the unit risk
factor alone, is conservative, that is, while the actual risk may be higher, it is more likely to be
lower and may even be as low as zero. Thus, the cancer risk estimates are not meant to be
representative of actual risks. Instead they are meant to be used in a comparative sense to
compare risks.
The weight-of-evidence that a pollutant causes cancer varies from proven human
carcinogen {e.g., benzene) to probable human carcinogen (e.g., 1,3-butadiene) to possible human
carcinogen {e.g., vinylidene chlonde). The weight-of-evidence rating is based on the most
current studies; human data are used when available, but data is more often drawn from animal
studies. The unit nsk factors and weight-of-evidence ratings remain uncertain to varying degrees
and are subject to change as further evidence is obtained and the significance of preliminary data
is reviewed.
For many substances, the unit risk factor is probably the greatest potential source of
uncertainty in estimating cancer risk. This is a significant issue and of particular concern for
particulate matter and POM. The diesel particulate matter unit risk estimate used in the study
is 1.7 x Iff5 (Table 2). This U.S. EPA estimate (Pepelko and Ris, 1992) has not been peer
reviewed and is subject to change. The unit risk estimate attributes carcinogenicity to the particle
itself rather than POM adsorbed to the surface of diesel particles. The gasoline particulate
matter, woodstove, and residential heating oil unit risk estimates used in this study, on the other
hands, are based on the comparative potency method (Lewtas, 1991) and use epidemiological data
from coke oven emissions, roofing tar emissions, and cigarette smoke to develop a correlation
with the organics based on the relative potencies in the skin tumor initiation assay. These unit
risk estimates are given in Table 2. The unit risk estimates based on the comparative potency
method are not official U.S. EPA estimates, and are highly uncertain. For particulate matter
emission sources in this study, particulate matter unit risk estimates were used when available.
Since no cancer potencies exist for aircraft particulate emissions, the U.S. EPA Office of Mobile
Sources (OMS) recommended using the unit risk factor for non-catalyst light-duty vehicles (1.6
x 10"5, Lewtas) for piston aircraft and the diesel particulate unit risk factor of 1.7 x 10"5 (Pepelko
and Ris) for turboprop and turbofan aircraft.
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Final Summary Report
For other sources, the benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P) surrogate approach was used to assess
cancer risks. In the surrogate approach, POM is assumed to have the same cancer risk factor as
B(a)P. Since B(a)P is among the most potent of the carcinogenic compounds included as POM,
and since not all POM is carcinogenic, the use of this value is likely to overestimate risk from
the POM mixture. A similar overestimate may result from the use of the unit risk factor for the
most potent dioxin (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin) as a surrogate for all dioxins. Finally,
the estimates for gasoline vapors from gasoline marketing are uncertain because the fraction of
vapors that is carcinogenic is not absolutely verified.
Data on synergistic or antagonistic effects are almost never available, so cancer risks from
various chemicals in a mixture are assumed to be additive. It should be noted that the
assumption of additivity can lead to substantial errors in risk estimates if synergistic or
antagonistic interactions occur. Although dose additivity has been shown to predict the acute
toxicity of many mixtures of similar and dissimilar compounds, some marked exceptions have
been identified. In some cases, risks would be either greatly overestimated or, in other cases,
greatly underestimated. The available data are insufficient for estimating the magnitude of these
errors.
For a discussion of how U.S. EPA evaluates suspect carcinogens and more information
on these classifications, refer to Guidelines for Carcinogenic Risk Assessment (51 Federal
Register 33992).
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Final Summary Report
TABLE I. CARCINOGENICITY OF POLLUTANT
LIFETIME EXPOSURE TO A UNIT POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION
Pollutant
Unit Risk Factor
(ug/m1)-"
Weight of
Evidence
Rating
Source
of Data
Acrylamide
0.0013
B2
1K15
Acrylonitnle
0.000068
Bl
IRIS
Arsenic
0.0043
A
IRIS
Asbestos
0 0076
A
IRIS
Benzene
0 0000083
A
IRIS
Benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P)6
00017
B2
OAQPS
Beryllium
00024
B2
IRIS
1,3-Butadiene
0.00028
B2
IRIS
Cadmium
0.0018
Bl
IRIS
Carbon Tetrachloride
0000015
B2
IRIS
Chloroform
0.000023
B2
IRIS
Hexavalent Chromium
0.012
A
IRIS
Coke Oven Emissions
0.00062
A
IRIS
Dioxins (2,3,7,8-TCDD)'
33.0
B2
OHEA
Epichlorobydnn
0.0000012
B2
IRIS
Ethylene Dibromide
0.00022
B2
IRIS
Ethylene Dichionde
0.000026
B2
IRIS
Ethylene Oxide
0.0001
B1-B2
OHEA
Formaldehyde
0.000013
Bl
IRIS
Gasoline Vapors
0.00000066
B2
OAQPS
Hexachlorobenzene
0.00046
B2
IRIS
Methyl Chloride
0.0000018
C
OHEA
Methylene Chloride
0.00000047
B2
mis
PercUoroethylene
0.00000058
B2
OHEA
Polychlorinaied bypbenyls (PCBs)
0.0022
B2
OHEA
Propylene Oxide
0.0000037
B2
IRIS
Styiene
0.00000057
B2
OHEA
Tnchloroethylene
0.0000017
B2
OHEA
Vinyl Chloride
0.000084
A
OHEA
Vinylidene Chlonde
0.00005
C
IRIS
A - Known human carcinogen
Bl * Based os "linetod* buna dsn
B
B2
Probable human Lan
Based on 'sufficient'
snogcB
' dm
C Possible human caronogai
HERL Hcahh Effects Research Laboratory OUS: Integrated Rule Intonation System
OAQPS Office of Air Quality Planning and Sundaids OHEA. Office of Health and Environmental Asms meat
¦ The omt nsk factor u defined B an estimate «f the probability ihit tn individual wiD develop caacer whet exposed to a pollutant at
an ambient eoocesmnoo of one microgram per cubic meter (ag/m3) far 70 yean These omt nsk factors tie either upper-bound values
or mixinram likelihood vaioes
' Surrogate unit factor to represent the pdycydic organic tuner (TOM) lumujc when no POM una nsk factor derived by comparative
potency approach is available for the source
' 2J.7.S-TCDD surrogate omt boor to represent the dioxa muamt
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Fmal Summary Report
TABLE 2
POM/PARTICULATE MATTER CARCINOGENICITY
DERIVED BY COMPARATIVE POTENCY APPROACH
Pollutant Combustion Source Unit Risk Factor Weight of Source
(ug/m3)-'
Evidence
Rating
of Data
POM
Residential Woodstoves
0.000029
ndb
HERLC
Particulate Matter*
Residential Heating (Oil)
0.000009
nd
HERL
Diesel Vehicles
0.000017
B2
AWMA"
Gasoline Road Vehicles
0.000051
nd
HERL
Gasoline Nonroad Engines
0.000016
nd
HERL
Piston Aircraft Engines
0.000016
nd
HERL
Turbine Aircraft Engines
0.000017
B2
AWMA
These factors have been adjusted such that they are applied to the total paiticle
concentration to estimate, risk from the POM fraction of the particulate matrw
"ad" indicates "not determined". Lewtas (1991) recommends class A ratings, but
these unit risk estimates have not been officially classified by U.S. EPA.
Indicates the U.S. EPA Health Effects Research Laboratory
Indicates information extracted from the Air and Waste Management Association
(AWMA) publication by Pepelko and Ris (1992)
April 1993
Page 10
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Final Summary Report
CHAPTER m
STUDY METHODOLOGY
in.l EMISSIONS INVENTORY
m. 1.1 SOUTHEAST CHICAGO INVENTORY
The emissions inventory used in the Southeast Chicago Study was utilized as the primary
emissions inventory in this study. The emissions inventory is described in detail in separate
reports. A detailed description of the inventory is given in a July 1987 report entitled Air Toxics
Emissions Inventory for the Southeast Chicaeo Area, authored by John Summerhays and Harriet
Croke. This report documents emission estimates for a wide range of source types, including
source types that are traditionally inventoried in air pollution studies as well as some source types
that are not traditionally inventoried such as volatilization from wastewater at sewage treatment
plants. An addendum to this report (dated August 1989) updates it by describing limited
revisions to the previously described inventory. The addendum describes procedures and results
of estimating air emissions from various waste handling sources including facilities for the
treatment, storage, and disposal of hazardous waste, abandoned hazardous waste sites, and
landfills storing municipal waste. Further details on the estimation of air emissions from the
handling of hazardous and nonhazardous waste are provided in two reports by the Midwest
Research Institute: Estimation of Hazardous Air Emissions in Southeast Chicago Contributed bv
TSDFs. covering air emissions from the treatment, storage, and disposal of hazardous waste
facilities and Estimation of Hazardous Air Emissions from Sanitary Landfills, covering air
emissions from landfills for ordinary municipal solid waste. Further details for abandoned waste
sites are given in a report by Alliance Technologies Corporation entitled F.stimatinn of Air
Emissions from Abandoned Waste Sites in the Southeast Chicago Area. The reader interested
in more details on the procedures, data sources, and emissions should consult these separate
reports.
There are 174 industrial point sources contained in the point source emissions inventory
previously prepared for the Southeast Chicago study. These point sources were grouped under
four major industry categories: Steel Mills, Wastewater Treatment Facilities, Chrome Platers, and
Other Industrial Point Sources. The groupings were done to provide a basis for risk analysis by
major industrial source types.
Emissions from the Treatment, Storage, and Disposal Facilities (TSDFs) were considered
as well. Among all 75 TSDF point sources inventoried, three major source categories were
assigned to distinguish their industrial types. The three source categories were the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA)-regulated Hazardous Waste Sites, Municipal Waste
Landfills, and Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs.
April 1993
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Final Summary Report
Because of the nature of the industry and emissions, some source categories included in
the study can only be inventoried as area sources. These source categories are as follows,
Examples of per capita area sources inventoried are aerosol cans, paint stripping, and
chlorinated drinking water.
m. 1.2 ADDITIONAL POINT SOURCES
A search of the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) database was conducted for new or
additional sources to add to the inventory. Most of the sources listed in the TRI database were
already included in the Southeast Chicago inventory. Sources of concern to the community were
particularly scrutinized. Two proposed sources (Robbins Incinerator and Sun Chemical
Incinerator) were added to the inventory to assess potential impact. In addition to the TRI
database, information from RCRA permits and Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA)
records were obtained. Six point sources were identified and added to the inventory. A detailed
description of these additional sources is included in Appendix A. A list of the additional point
sources and Midway Airport, as well as the emissions considered in the cancer risk assessment
is provided in Table 3.
Mercury, considered non-carcinogenic in this study, from the proposed Robbins
Incinerator was initially estimated at 2.2 tons per year. However, Robbins Incinerator is now
committed to carbon injection to control Mercury. Pursuant to consent decree, emissions must
not exceed 0.44 tons per year. The records on the General Electric PCB Reclamation facility
were scrutinized for any actual or potential PCB emissions. U.S. EPA PCB inspectors found no
PCB emissions from this facility.
April 1993 Page 12
Road Vehicles
Gasoline Marketing
Barge Loading
Industrial Heating
Commercial Heating
Residential Heating
Residential Wood Combustion
Dry Cleaners
De greasing
Surface Coating
Hospitals
Paint Strippers
Demolition
Chrome Platers (in Lake
County, Indiana only)
Per Capita Area Sources
-------
Final Summary Report
TABLE 3
ADDITIONAL SOURCES AND ESTIMATED EMISSIONS
Facility Name
KOPPERSJ, INC.
From State permit
Pollutant
Emissions
Styrene
0.4 tons/yr
CORN PRODUCTS
From the final report of Air
Toxics Emission Inventories
for the Lake Michigan Region
GE PCB RECLAMATION FACILITY
From RCRA. EPA ID ELD070015714
Arsenic
Cadmium
Total Chromium
Formaldehyde
Benzene
Tetrachloroethylene
36.0 lbs/yr
3.8 lbs/yr
33 4 lbs/yr
548.8 lbs/yr
4.0 lbs/yr
0 002 lbs/yr
GRACE SPECIALTY CHEMICALS
From TRI Formaldehyde
230 Ibs/yT
SUN CHEMICAL
From RCRA (Proposed incinerator,
project has been withdrawn by
the company)
Arsenic
Benzene
Beryllium
Cadmium
Chromium
0.142 Ibs/yT
2.212 lbs/yr
0.030 lbs/yr
0.048 lbs/yr
7.048 lbs/yr
ROBBINS INCINERATOR*
From Stale permit (Proposed)
Arsenic
flnrtrniiim
Total Chromium
Dioxias
20.148 lbs/yr
16.644 lbs/yr
289.080 lbs/yr
2.000 ng/m}
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
Benzene 8.99 tons/yT
13-Bntadiese 7.60 tons/yr
Formaldehyde 62.86 tons/yr
Paniculate Maoer (Piston Engines) 1.23 tons/yr
Particulate Matter (Turbojet/Turboprop Engines) 48.87 tons/yr
ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS
FROM PARKING LOTS
AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
Benzene
13-Butadiene
Formaldehyde
Particulate Matter (Diesel Vehicles)
Particulate Matter (Gasoline Vehicles)
0.332 tons/yr
0.055 tons/yr
0.118 tons/yr
0.190 tons/yr
0.068 tons/yr
April 1993
Pace 13
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Final Summary Report
The first four point sources listed in Table 3 were classified as Other Industrial Point
Sources and appended to the Southeast Chicago point source emissions inventory. Sun Chemical
Incinerator and Robbins Incinerator, two proposed facilities, were not considered when the
aggregated cancer cases in the Southwest Chicago area were analyzed even though they were
inventoried. Instead, these two facilities were singled out and the risk assessment for each of
them was conducted separately. The results of the study are not significantly affected by either
facility.
m.1.3 EMISSIONS AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
Midway Airport is located within the target 8x8 receptor grid network. An area source
inventory was set up to scrutinize the estimated emissions from mobile sources at Midway.
Based on the technical directives from OMS, the emissions inventory of the Midway Airport area
source compasses a 1.7 kilometer x 1.7 kilometer square with the southwest comer of
(UTMY.UTMX) = (4625.2.436.64). The main focus of the Midway emissions inventory is
emissions from aircraft engines. Emissions by aviation category from all phases of the landing
and takeoff (LTO) cycle (approach, taxi/idle, takeoff, and climbout) among all aircraft in 1990
were estimated. Twenty-five 340-meter by 340-meter emission grids were arbitrarily assigned
covering the Midway Airport area for use in CDM modeling.
The last source listed in Table 3, the estimated vehicular emissions, occurred in three
parking lots and the passenger pick-up and drop-off lane (Helen Mikols Drive) at Midway. The
methodologies utilized to estimate air pollution from mobile sources at Midway in greater d»r«ii
in Appendix B. Figure 4 provides a general layout of Midway Airport and assigned emission
grids in the study. A detailed layout of Midway can be found in Appendix B as well.
m.1.4 NONROAD MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS INVENTORY
Nonroad mobile sources such as lawn mowers and snowblowers usually contribute
significantly to air pollution in a highly populated area and t if feasible, must be accounted for
in an adequate risk assessment Based on Nonroad Engine Fmiwion Inventories for CO and
Ozone Nonattainment Boundaries - Chicago CMSA (1992) provided by OMS, emissions from
nonroad engines were estimated for the study. The source report was prepared for OMS in
response to calls for the nonattainment area emissions inventory development. It provides the
county emissions per person per criteria pollutant data computed using an equipment's population
in a given region, the average load factor at which the equipment's engine is operated, the
average annual hours of use and the horsepower rating of the engine, and the emission factor
attributable to the engine. For this Southwest Chicago risk assessment study, the county
emissions per person data were used in conjunction with the available population Hata to calculate
April 1993
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Final Summary Report
the total annual hydrocarbons (THC) and particulate matter emissions in the inventoried portion
of each of the four counties. Emissions of benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and formaldehyde were
prepared using the toxic/THC fractions suggested by OMS in Table 4.
TABLE 4
NONROAD MOBILE SOURCE TOXIC FRACTIONS OF THC
Pollutant Toxic/THC Fraction
Benzene 3.0% of Exhaust THC (including Crankcase THC) + 1.7% of Evaporative THC
1,3-Butadiene 1.3% of Exhaust THC (including Crankcase THC)
Formaldehyde 1.1 % of Exhaust THC (including Crankcase THC)
Estimated annual emissions from nonroad mobile sources in the study area are presented
in Table 5. It must be noted that nonroad mobile sources operated at Midway were also included
in these estimates as stated in the source repoit
TABLE 5
NONROAD MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS INVENTORY
(E missions in tons/yr)
County Benzene 1,3-Bntadlene Formaldehyde Gasoline* Diesel
Particulate Particulate
Cook
157.67
66.18
56.00
82.61
668.98
Du Page
4.07
1.71
1.45
113
1718
Will
4.10
1.72
1.45
115
1738
Lake, IN
29.43
12.48
10.56
17.15
8214
Includes particulate matter emissions from both 2-stroke and 4-stroke engines
April 1993
Page 15
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Southwest Chicago Study
Midway Area Source
Emission Grids
A~
B
\y
436£4)
I
1
_U'3
4 5
(4626.9,
43^.34),
3
\
X
ri
Emission Grid Network
FIGURE 4
Page 16
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Final Summary Report
m.1.5 EMISSIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE RECEPTOR AREA
The original Southeast Chicago study area did not include sources to the north of the
receptor area. For this study, carcinogenic air emissions as far as 16 kilometers (10 miles) to the
north of the Southwest Chicago receptor area were estimated for both point sources and area
sources. Point source emission were taken from the Aerometric Information and Retrieval
System Facility Subsystem (AIRS/AFS). This data system contains all point sources which emit
at least 100 tons per year of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and/or particulate matter. The
emissions data were speciated, by accessing the U.S. EPA SPECIATE database system, to reflect
metals from particulate matter and various organics from the VOC data. The total number of
facilities that emit the pollutants studied in the northern area is 34. Area source data were
estimated using the area source data from the Southeast Chicago inventory. The population was
calculated using U.S. Census' Block Group/Enumeration Districts (BGED) centroid data of 1980,
at 2-kilometer by 2-kilometer grid cells and overall emissions in the northern area were
proportioned based on the percentage of the population at individual grid cells to the total number
of people residing in the northern area. The assumption was made that emissions from source
categories were distributed based mainly on population density. To be consistent with the
Southeast Chicago study, BGED data of 1980 were chosen rather than the recently released 1990
U.S. Census population data. Area source emissions in the area north to the receptor area
covered every source type inventoried in the Southeast Chicago inventory, except barge loading.
To avoid any duplication in the northern area emissions inventory, point source emissions
from two types of processes, surface coating and degreasing, were subtracted from emissions
estimated for the corresponding area source categories. Figure 5 shows the relative location of
the northern area to the receptor network and area emission grids defined within it
m.1.6 REVISIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST CHICAGO VEHICULAR EMISSIONS INVENTORY
The Southeast Chicago road vehicle emissions inventory was revisited in this study to talc*
into account vehicular emissions information available in the 1990 Baseline Emissions Inventory
prepared by IEPA using MOBILE4.1. With the OMS-suggested emission factors and toxic
fractions, vehicular emissions considered in the study area were updated based on vehicle mix
in the 1990 fleet, vehicle miles travelled (VMT), and VOC/total organic gases (TOG) emissions.
Particulate matter emission estimates, replacing the previous POM emission estimates,
were divided into diesel and gasoline particulate matter emissions for a more specific particulate
matter assessment Conversely, emissions of dioxins, ethylene dibromide, and gasoline vapors
were deleted since emission factors of these carcinogens calculating emissions based on VOC
amounts are very uncertain for this emission source. Other carcinogens included in the inventory
April 1993
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Final Summary Report
are formaldehyde, benzene, and 1,3-butadiene. Approaches and assumptions used to revise the
road vehicle emissions inventory and related data sources and contents are further explained in
Appendix C.
m.1.7 REVISIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST CHICAGO PARTICULATE MATTER EMISSIONS
INVENTORY
The unit risk factor for POM previously used in the Southwest Chicago Study for
residential heating and woodstoves is 1.7 x 10°. This unit risk factor was chosen based on the
assumption that all POM could be represented by a surrogate compound, benzo(a)pyrene, or
B(a)P. This approach is often referred to as the B(a)P surrogate approach. Recent U.S. EPA
publications recommend the use of the comparative potency approach thai applies a cancer unit
risk factor to the entire mixture of POM or particulate matter emitted by each source category
rather than to a particular surrogate compound. To be in line with U.S. EPA practices in risk
assessment, the Southeast Chicago emissions inventory was revisited to adapt the comparative
potency approach.
Emissions from residential heating were further broken down to particulate emissions from
residential heating using distillate oil and POM emissions from residential heating using natural
gas. The former has a cancer unit risk factor (0.9 x 1CT5) derived by the comparative potency
approach available and the latter can only use the B(a)P surrogate unit risk factor to for cancer
assessment For residential woodstoves, POM emission amounts were not updated. However,
their cancer risks were assessed based on the unit risk factor (2.9 x 1(FS) derived using the
comparative potency approach in the study. Appendix D contains the technical information on
approaches used in the study to analyze the POM emission sources.
m.1.8 A NOTE ON CHROMIUM EMISSIONS
Chromium exists in various forms with various toxicities. It is known that hexavalent
chromium is the most toxic form, but it is usually not clear what mix of valence states is present
in any set of emissions. In general, the Southeast Chicago emissions inventory conservatively
assumed that all chromium was in the most toxic form. An exception was for point sources such
as steel furnaces where a factor of 0.1% was estimated. As much as possible, the Southwest
Chicago emissions inventory followed the assumptions and estimates used for the Southeast
Chicago study.
The summarized air toxic releases scenario indicating the emission amounts of
carcinogenic pollutants across all source categories is included in Appendix E. The total annual
amount of carcinogenic air pollution analyzed in the study is about 26,832 tons per year.
Information on emissions by source category is shown in Figure 6.
April 1993
Page 18
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SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
2 KM BY 2 KM AREA EMIS9I0N GRIDS IN THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
454
4630
¦0
I
£ POLITICAL BOUNDARY SHOWN
INDICATES COOK COUNTY
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
TOXIC EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY
Gasoline Marketing 35.9%
Mobile Sources 24.4%
Others 10.
Solvent Uses 15.5%
TOTAL EMISSIONS » 26,832 Tona/Yr.
* Emissions are Apportioned on a Mass Basis
* Mobile 8ources Include Road Vehicles, Nonroad Engines, and Aircraft Engines
* Solvent Uses Include Paint Strippers, 8urface Coating, Degreasing, and Dry Cleaners
* Gasoline Marketing Toxic Emissions are Comprised Mostly of Qas Vapors
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Final Summary Report
m.2 AIR DISPERSION MODELING
A risk assessment needs population, a measure of the degree of risk a particular pollutant
poses (a unit risk factor), and a concentration of that pollutant. Ambient concentrations are based
on the combination of the point source contribution, the area source contribution, and the
background concentration which is determined and assumed. In this study, modeling techniques
and methodologies used to estimate these three sources' contributions to ambient concentrations
were the same as the ones applied to the Southeast Chicago study.
The Program Integration Project — Queries Using Interactive Command (PIPQUIC)
system, implemented on the U.S. EPA IBM 3090 mainframe, allows a user to access two of the
U.S. EPA air dispersion models: Industrial Source Complex — Long Term (ISCLT) and
Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM). While ISCLT well serves the need for predicting
concentrations from point sources, CDM gams recognition in its capability for modeling area
source emissions and resulung concentrations.
PIPQUIC was accessed to proceed with the dispersion modeling tasks. However, if
PIPQUIC could not provide the needed capability, customized procedures outside of PIPQUIC
were established. Appendix F further describes the air dispersion modeling methodology applied
to this study.
m.2.1 BACKGROUND CONCENTRATIONS
It is documented in the Southeast Chicago study report (Summerhays, 1989) that
formaldehyde and carbon tetrachloride concentrations may be attributed to origins other than
current emissions. Specifically, formaldehyde may be generated by photochemical reactions and
carbon tetrachloride may be attributed to atmospheric accumulations. Since studies show that
background concentrations of these two pollutants are fairly uniformly distributed, formaldehyde
was assumed to have a background concentration of 2.23 ug/m3 and carbon tetrachloride was
assumed to have a background concentration of 0.76 ug/m3, as indicated in the Southeast Chicago
study report and The Transboundarv Air Toxics Study (Blakley, 1990). Other than formaldehyde
and carbon tetrachloride, this study considered background concentrations and inflow from area
outside of the study area to be zero.
April 1993
Page 21
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Final Summary Report
JB3 monitored concentration vs. modeled concentration
Available monitored concentrations were compared to modeled concentrations to assess
the quality of modeled outcomes. The monitored concentrations listed in Illinois Annua] Air
Quality Reports of 1988 and 1991 (for particulate toxicants) and 1988/89 Toxic Air Monitoring
Station (TAMS) Report (for organic toxicants) were extracted for monitoring sites in or close to
the receptor network. The extracted monitored data were then compared to the modeled
concentrations. Results of this comparison are displayed in Tables 6 and 7.
TABLE 6
COMPARISON OF MONITORED AND MODELED CONCENTRATIONS
FOR PARTICULATE TOXICANTS
(concentration in ug/m3)
Pollutant
Monitoring
Site
No. of
Samples
Arsenic Summit* 57
Bedford Park" 58
Animal Arith. Reporting
Mean of Year of
Monitored Monitored
Concentration Data
m
Modeled
Concentration
0.0M74e
0.00064"
1JM
0.001
1991
Parimnmi
Summit
57
0.003
1988
0.00034*
Located at 60th Street and 70th Avenue
Located at 7800 W. 65th Street, south of Midway Aiiport
Highest value among receptor grids No. 17-18 and 25-26, which are located in or close to the
Summit monitoring site
Highest value among receptor grids No. 3-8 and 11-16, which are located in or close to the
Bedford Park monitoring site
April 1993
Page 22
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Final Summary Report
TABLE 7
COMPARISON OF MONITORED AND MODELED CONCENTRATIONS
FOR ORGANIC TOXICANTS
(concentration in ug/m')
Pollutant
No. of
Samples
1988/2989*
Arithmetic
Mean of
Monitored
Concentration
Highest
Modeled
Concentration
at Receptors'*
Average
Modeled
Concentration
at Receptors'
Benzene
22/23
6.26
0.88
Carbon Tetrachlondc
-------
Final Summary Report
underestimated when compared to actual ambient concentrations. It is possible that the emissions
inventory may underestimate emissions affecting the study area. This could occur by
underestimating emissions at identified facilities or area sources, or by failing to identify some
sources of emissions. For example, the differences between modeled and monitored
concentrations for particulate toxicants may be caused by the exclusion of pollution in the form
of fugitive dust in the modeling outcomes. For benzene, the difference between the modeled and
monitored concentrations may be due to the long residence time of benzene in the atmosphere.
Significant day-to-day carryover of benzene concentrations would be expected, but is not included
in the modeled concentration. For carbon tetrachloride and formaldehyde, modeled
concentrations show the slightly higher values than monitored concentrations. The potential
cause of the overestimation of modeled concentrations for these two pollutants may be the
assumption of the uniform background emissions in the study area since background emissions
are the primary source of the modeled concentrations. Finally, yearly variation of meteorological
conditions in the study area was generalized for dispersion modeling. This generalization
approach may also be a contributing factor for the differences in modeled and monitored
concentrations.
April 1993
Page 24
-------
PmNngRosd 4aao.il
440.04
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
ANNUAL CONCENTRATIONS AT RECEPTOR GRID
pollutant: arsenic
MOOELED CONCENT
O.OOtO
0.000 7
0 0001
0.0000
4S?B 3079
UTMY IN KM
Midway
Alrpoit
«*U4 70th8&Mt
139 19
4633 6200 *33 24
UTMX IN KM
-------
PanNngRoad 4no.1I
J l«0J4
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
ANNUM. CONCENTRATIONS AT RECEPTOR GRID
POLLUTANT: BENZENE
MOOELEO CONCENT
2.08
1 . IS
0 67
0 00
4629 3073
UTMT IN KM
4633 6300 433.24
UTMX IN KM
Midway
Alipoit
4MJ4 70th 8tKMt
I
439 19
-------
Final Summary Report
CHAPTER IV
RISK ASSESSMENT
IV. 1 RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
Once the concentration at a given receptor has been modeled for a pollutant, risk is
computed as the product of the population residing in the receptor area, the concentration to
which the population is exposed, and the unit risk associated with the pollutant Dispersion
models used in the study estimate average concentrations at targeted receptors. They do not have
the capability for predicting maximum concentrations at receptors. The technical approaches used
to conduct the risk assessment in this study are further detailed in Appendix F. The population
profile and its distribution at the receptor grid network is displayed in Figure 9.
Cancer incidences presented in this report are based on the assumption that emission
levels and ambient levels for each pollutant either "average out" over a 70-year period to equal
the concentrations used in the calculations of annual incidence or remain constant for that period
of time. In reality, emissions and air quality will vary from year to year. Because the amount
and direction of variation is unknown, it is unclear how much this assumption affects the results.
As a result of the limitations and uncertainties identified throughout this report, the
numerical estimates presented in this report should be viewed only as a rough indication of the
potential for cancer risk caused by a limited group of pollutants found in the ambient air. While
the modeled concentrations at receptors were averages, unit risk estimates are upper bound
estimates. Many of the risks cited in this report are almost certainly inaccurate in an absolute
sense. The best use of the risk estimates is in describing the broad nature of cancer risk posed
by these air toxics and by making relative comparisons of risks across pollutants and sources.
April 1993
Page 27
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Panhtng Road 4sao.it
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOT
POPULATION PROFILE AT RECEPTOR GRID
Midway
Airport
4628 3073
162) 6200 <1)3.21 UTMX IN KM
TOTAL POPULATION IS 6)894
-------
Final Summary Report
IV.2 ESTIMATED HAZARD INDICES
IV.2.1 OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS
By summing up lifetime individual risks and lifetime cancer cases over all 64 receptors
from all pollutants and source categories, the overall risk estimates within the target area can be
estimated. The cumulative total number of cancer cases that this study estimated to be
attributable to air pollution is about 20 cases over 70 years or about one over three and a half
years. The study area for which exposure was assessed has a population of 93,854 residents.
Therefore, the average risk across the area due to air pollution as estimated by this study is
approximately 2.1 x 10"\ which is very close to the average of 2.2 x 10"* estimated in the
Southeast Chicago study. This similarity in average risk may result from the high degree of
urbanization in both study areas.
Also, by examining the individual lifetime nsk estimated at each receptor, this study finds
that the individual lifetime risk ranges from 1.3 x 10"4 to 4.2 x 10"\ This range is in agreement
with the average individual lifetime risk of 2.1 x 10"4 with no difference in the order of
magnitude (order of negative 4, or 10"*). This observation suggests that, throughout the study
area, approximately 1 to 4 in every 10,000 people would be likely to contract cancer in their
lifetimes due to being continuously exposed to toxic air pollution. The distributions of lifetime
individual risks and cancer cases at the receptor grid network are shown in Table 8.
To better portray the aggregated risk scenarios in the study, Figures 10 and 11 are
included to identify the distributions of the estimated hazard indices. Among all 64 receptor
grids, the cumulative lifetime individual risk reaches the maximum at the receptor
(UTMY.UTMX) = (4626.06,437.49), located at the middle of Midway Airport. Since no
population resides on this grid, the highest number of cancer cases is estimated at the receptor
grid (UTMY.UTMX) = (4626.06,434.09). The origins of lifetime cancer cases were further
investigated and are described in the next two sections.
April 1993
Page 29
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Final Summary Report
TABLE 8. AGGREGATE HAZARD INDICES AT RECEPTOR GRID4
Grid ID
Receptor Location
Lifetime
Population
Lifetime
Parent
(Southwest Corner)
Individual
Risks
Cancer
Cases
Cancer
Cases
1
4623.62 433.24
1.47E-04
0
0
0
2
4623.62 434.09
1.50E-04
0
0
0
3
4623.62 434.94
1.54E-04
0
0
0
4
4623.62 435.79
1.56E-04
0
0
0
5
4623.62 436.64
1.62E-04
0
0
0
6
4623.62 437.49
1.66E-04
0
0
0
7
4623.62 438.34
1.76E-04
351
0.062
0.31
8
4623.62 439.19
1.79E-04
2396
0.43
2.13
9
4624.43 433.24
1.61E-04
1614
0.26
1.30
10
4624.43 434.09
1.88E-04
1749
0.33
1.64
11
4624.43 434.94
1.97E-04
2105
0.41
2.07
12
4624.43 435.79
1.77E-04
1775
0.31
1.56
13
4624.43 436.64
1.72E-04
1662
0.29
1.42
14
4624.43 437.49
1.80E-04
1384
0.25
1.24
15
4624.43 43834
1.85E-04
2453
0.45
2.26
16
4624.43 439.19
1.89E-04
3159
0.60
2.98
17
4625.25 433.24
1.73E-04
91
0.015
0.078
18
4625.25 434.09
2.68E-04
3056
0.82
4.08
19
4625.25 434.94
2.69E-04
2518
0.68
3.37
20
4625.25 435.79
1.87E-04
3391
0.63
3.16
21
4625.25 436.64
2.08E-04
0
0
0
22
4625.25 437.49
2.18E-04
0
0
0
23
4625.25 438.34
2.72E-04
2723
0.74
3.69
24
4625.25 439.19
2.10E-04
3451
0.72
3.61
25
4626.06 433.24
1.74E-04
2735
0.48
237
26
4626.06 434.09"
3.64E-04
2818
1.03
5.11
27
4626.06 434.94
2.30E-04
2814
0.65
3.22
28
4626.06 435.79
1.86E-04
2680
0.50
2.48
29
4626.06 436.64
2.05E-04
0
0
0
30
4626.06 437.49
4.16E-04
0
0
0
31
4626.06 43834
3.96E-04
2151
0.85
424
32
4626.06 439.19
2.21E-04
2807
0.62
3.09
Aggregated over all pollutants and all source categories
The grid where peak lifetime cancer cases occur
April 1993
Page 30
-------
Final Summary Report
TABLE 8. AGGREGATE HAZARD INDICES AT RECEPTOR GRID (CONT'D)
Grid ED
Receptor Location
Lifetime
Population
Lifetime
Percent
(Southwest Corner)
Individual
Risks
Cancer
Cases
Cancer
Cases
33
4626.87 433.24
1.60E-04
2769
0.44
2.21
34
4626.87 434.09
2.05E-04
2895
0.59
2.95
35
4626.87 434.94
2.33E-04
2860
0.67
3.33
36
4626.87 435.79
1.94E-04
2557
0.50
2.47
37
4626.87 436.64
1.97E-04
3154
0.62
3.10
38
4626.87 437.49
2.83E-04
1201
0.34
1.69
39
4626.87 438.34
2.66E-04
1913
0.51
2.54
40
4626.87 439.19
2.12E-04
2126
0.45
2.24
41
4627.68 433.24
1.53E-04
0
0
0
42
4627.68 434.09
1.89E-04
0
0
0
43
4627.68 434.94
2.16E-04
0
0
0
44
4627.68 435.79
2.83E-04
0
0
0
45
4627.68 436.64
2.07E-04
2138
0.44
2.21
46
4627.68 437.49
2.10E-04
2997
0.63
3.13
47
4627.68 438.34
2.19E-04
1900
0.42
2.07
48
4627.68 439.19
2.24E-04
3698
0.83
4.13
49
4628.50 433.24
1.45E-04
1767
0.26
1.28
50
4628.50 434.09
1.56E-04
48
0.0075
0.037
51
4628.50 434.94
1.69E-04
0
0
0
52
4628.50 435.79
1.95E-04
0
0
0
53
4628.50 436.64
2.03E-04
0
0
0
54
4628.50 437.49
2.14E-04
4245
0.91
4.52
55
4628.50 438.34
2.22E-04
990
0.22
1.10
56
4628.50 439.19
2.25E-04
1552
0.35
1.74
57
4629.31 433.24
1.41E-04
2638
0.37
1.86
58
4629.31 434.09
1.47E-04
1928
0.28
1.42
59
4629.31 434.94
1.57E-04
0
0
0
60
4629.31 435.79
1.78E-04
0
0
0
61
4629.31 436.64
1.79E-04
0
0
0
62
4629.31 437.49
1.93E-04
525
0.10
0.50
63
4629.31 438.34
2.08E-04
67
0.014
0.069
64
4629.31 439.19
2.I4E-04
3
0.00064
0.003
Total 93,854 20.07
April 1993
Page 31
-------
P«nHngfload 4M0.ll
jm —1440J4
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
aggregate lifetime individual cancer risks at receptor grio
I KOI VI DUAL RISK
4.toe-04
a.?Te-04
1.ise-o*
o ooe«oo
4029.JOTS
UTMY IN KM
4B23 6200 4)1.24
UTMX IN KM
Midway
Airport
OUI 70th Street
439 19
-------
PanNng Rood 4M0.U
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
AQGREQATE LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRIO
Midway
Airport
70th Sires!
0 00
4629 3073
4623 6200 433 24 UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IS 20 1
-------
Final Summary Report
IV.2.2 RISK ASSESSMENT BY SOURCE CATEGORY
The estimated risk by source category was examined to determine some of the major
contributors to cancer risk in this particular area. Table 9 indicates the contributions to risks by
source category. The top five source categories (each contributes at least ten percent of the
cumulative cancer cases) account for 81% (about 16 cancer cases) of the cumulative total number
of estimated lifetime cancer cases (Figure 12). For many of the sources, the 1990 Clean Air Act
(CAA) Amendments will regulate the air toxic emissions and reduce the consequent cancer risks.
This study finds that the major contributor to risk is the road vehicles in the study area,
which contributes an estimated 5 cases over 70 years or about 25% of the total. Road vehicle
emissions include emissions originated from arterial exhaust, freeway exhaust, and evaporation.
Because of the high traffic and sophisticated public transportation system within and surrounding
the target area, lifetime individual risks impacted by emissions from road vehicles are fairly
distributed among all receptors and cancer cases vary based on population (Figure 13).
Background concentrations contribute an estimated 4 cases over 70 years or about 19%
of the total. This source type consists of air pollution not caused by cuirent emissions. As
mentioned before, only formaldehyde concentrations caused by photochemical reactions and
carbon tetrachloride caused by atmospheric accumulations are considered to be background
concentrations in the study. Among the two pollutants, formaldehyde (close to 3 cases) generates
lifetime cancer cases two and half times higher than carbon tetrachloride (1 case). Please note
that the magnitude of cancer impact by background concentrations is exactly a proportioned
reflection of population in die receptor area. This situation is due to the uniform annual
concentration assumed at each receptor.
This study also finds that hexavalent chromium emissions emitted by electroplater job
shops contribute an estimated 3 cancer cases over 70 years or about 16% of the total. The
carcinogenic impact over the study area from chrome platers is portrayed in Figure 14.
Emissions from nonroad mobile sources and emissions from aircraft engines at Midway
are both major contributing sources of cancer risks in the area. Each source contributes
approximately 2 cancer cases over 70 years (or about 11% of the total) in die study area. For
the source of nonroad engines, this result may suggest that the frequent uses of nonroad
equipment correlates positively with the local population (Figure IS). Also, due to the location
of Midway Airport located within the receptor grid network, it is no surprise that emissions from
aircraft engines may have a significant impact on residents living in the study area, especially
to people living at receptors adjacent to the airport (Figure 16). Finally, carcinogenic impacts
caused by the top five source categories and emitted air toxics are described in Appendix G.
APRIL 1993
Page 34
-------
Final Summary Report
TABLE 9
AGGREGATE HAZARD INDICES BY SOURCE CATEGORY*
Source Category Lifetime Lifetime Percent
Individual Cancer Cancer
Risks Cases Cases
Road Vehicles6
3.34E-03
5.03
25.08
Background Concentration
2.58E-03
3.79
18.88
Chrome Platers
1.78E-03
3.13
15.60
Nonroad Engines
1.34E-03
2.14
10.65
Aircraft Engines
1.42E-03
2.11
10.52
Steel Mills
9.50E-04
1.41
7.03
Other Industrial Points
4.62E-04
0.68
3.41
Cooling Towers
3.00E-04
0.45
2.24
Residential Heating
1.99E-04
0.31
1.54
Gasoline Marketing
1.66E-04
0.26
1.28
Industrial Heating
9.47E-05
0.14
0.70
Wastewater Treatment
1.72E-04
0.13
0.63
Per Capita Area Sources
7.94E-05
0.12
0.62
Commercial Heating
7.94E-05
0.12
0.61
Degreasing
6.99E-05
0.10
0.52
Hospitals
3.27E-05
0.049
0.25
Dry Cleaners
2.54E-05
0.039
0.19
Paint Strippers
1.05E-05
0.016
_c
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
7.82E-06
0.012
-
Surface Coating
6.36E-06
0.010
-
Demolition
6.28E-06
0.0098
-
Residential Wood Combustion
2.96E-06
0.0044
-
Municipal landfills
8.94E-07
0.0013
-
RCRA Hazardous Sites
2.28E-07
0.00034
-
Barge Loading
1.17E-07
0.00017
-
Aggregated over all pollutants among all receptor grids
Including vehicular emissions from parking lots and Helen Mikols Drive at Midway
Airport
indicates less than 0.1%
April 1993
Page 35
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANCER RISK
BY SOURCE CATEGORY
Background Emissions 18.9%
Chrome Platers 15.6%
Aircraft Engines 10.5%
Road Vehicles 25.1%
Steel Mills 7.0%
Others 12.3%
Nonroad Engines 10.6%
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES - 20.1
-------
Porahing Road 4w
j p mam
CANCER CASES
0 30
0 20
0 10
0 00
4629 1075
UTMY IN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOT
LIFETIME cancer cases at receptor grid
SOURCE CATEGORY TOAD VEHICLES
.83"
«mn
Midway
Aliport
II
43U4 701hStmet
439 19
48J3 8200 433.24 UTMX IN JCM
TOTAL NUMBER Of CASES IS S 03
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRIO
SOURCE CATEGORY- CHROME PLATERS
CANCER CA6ES
O.JO
Midway
Airport
4*U4 700l8tlMt
0.36
0 IS
0 00
4839 3073
UTMY IN KM
4623.8200 433.24 UTMX IN ICM
TOTAL NUMBER OP CASES IS 3 13
-------
PeraHngRoad 400.1*
J> —1440.04
cancer cases
0 11
0 07
0 00
4629 3073
WTMY IN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOY
lifetime cancer cases at receptor grid
SOURCE CATEGORY1 MONRO*O ENGINES
. M
4823.6200 433 21
UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER Of CASES IS 2 14
Midway
Alipoii
4SM4 701h8tm«t
I
439 19
-------
PwWngWotd «eso.t>
CANCER CA6ES
0. 40
0 33
0. 18
0. 00
4839 1075
UTMY tN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRIO
SOURCE CATEGORY: AIRCRAFT ENGINES
Midway
Airport
mil 70thS1mel
f
439 IB
4613.6100 433 |4
UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NIMBBR OP CASES IS 2.11
-------
Final Summary Report
IV.2.3 RISK ASSESSMENT BY POLLUTANT
Because of the difference in emission amounts and unit risk values, some pollutants may
dominantly contribute to the risk estimates within the Southwest Chicago area. The contributions
to risks by pollutant are depicted in Table 10. Table 11 further breaks down cancer cases
attributed to POM pollution by emitting origin to reflect different unit nsk factors used. In the
case of population lifetime risks, the top four pollutants, whose individual contributions to the
cumulative cancer cases exceed ten percent, make up 79% (about 16 cancer cases) of the total
number of cancer cases (Figure 17).
The primary contributor m terms of pollutant risk is 1,3-butadiene, which contributes 4
and a half cancer cases over a lifetime or about 23% of the total. Among all the sources emitting
1,3-butadiene, an estimated 4 lifetime cancer cases are attributed to emissions from mobile
sources: road vehicles (2 cancer cases), aircraft engines (1 cancer case), and nonroad mobile
sources (1 cancer case).
POM and particulate emissions in the study area contribute approximately 4 cancer cases
over a lifetime or about 19% of the total number of cases. Prominent POM emission sources in
the study area are mobile sources such as road vehicles, nonroad engines, and aircraft engines.
Particulate emissions from road vehicles contribute about 2 cancer cases, and are primarily
attributable to the diesel-fueled vehicle fleet Approximately one cancer case is attributed to
particulate matter emissions from nonroad mobile sources, and only about a half cancer case is
attributed to particulate matter emissions from aircraft.
The third largest contributor in the area in terms of pollutant risk is hexavalent chromium.
Estimated cancer cases caused by hexavalent chromium emissions account for roughly 18% of
the total number of cases, or about 4 cancer cases over 70 years. The major source of p.miwnnc
is chromium electroplaters, which alone results in about 3 cancer cases over a lifetime
Emissions of formaldehyde are another significant contributor to risk. An estimated 3 and
a half cancer cases over 70 years or about 18% of the total are caused by formaldehyde. About
3 cancer cases are attributed to the formaldehyde background concentrations. This assessment
result is consistent with the findings stated in the previous section Risk Assessment by Source
Category pertaining to background concentrations. Since background concentrations dominate
the risks posed by formaldehyde, the relative magnitude of cancer cases estimated at receptors
are very much in line with the magnitude of population at receptors. Figures 18 to 21 highlight
the carcinogenic impact attributed to 1,3-butadiene, POM, hexavalent chromium, and
formaldehyde in sequence. Cross contributions of the top four pollutants and their respective
emission sources were examined and can be found in Appendix H.
April 1993
Page 41
-------
Final Summary Report
TABLE 10
AGGREGATE HAZARD INDICES BY POLLUTANTS'
Pollutant
Individual
Lifetime
Lifetime
Percent
Concentrations
Individual
Cancer
Cancer
(ug/ms)
Risks
Cases
Cases
1,3-Butadiene
1 09E+01
3.06E-03
4.69
23.36
POM"
1 24E+02
2J0E-O3
3.78
18.83
Hexavalent Chromium
1 79E-01
2.15E-03
3.69
18.38
Formaldehyde
I87E+02
2.44E-03
3.60
17.94
Coke Oven Emissions
130E+00
8 05E-O4
1.20
5.96
Carbon Tetrachloride
4 87E+01
7 30E-O4
1.07
5.33
Benzene
6 29E+01
5.22E-04
0.80
3.96
Arsenic
4 37E-02
1.88E-04
0.27
1.35
Gasoline Vapors
2.35E+02
I.55E-04
0.24
1.19
Ethylene Oxide
1.29E+00
1.29E-04
0.19
0.94
Hexachlorobenzene
3 68E-01
1.69E-04
0.13
0.66
Trichloroethyleue
3 07E+01
5.22E-05
0.077
0.38
Perchloroethylene
8.12E+01
4.71E-05
0.074
0.37
Cadmium
2.36E-02
4.25E-05
0.062
0.31
Methylene Chloride
8.25E+01
3.88E-05
0.058
0.29
Chloroform
1.68E+00
3.86E-05
0.057
0.28
Asbestos
3.03E-03
2J0E-O5
0.035
0.17
Dioxins
434E-07
1.43E-05
0.021
0.11
Vinyl Chloride
8.61E-02
723E-06
0.010
Ethylene Dichloride
3.21E-01
8.34E-06
0.0087
•
Ethylene Dibromide
2.28E-02
5.02E-06
0.0067
Vinylidene Chloride
4.98E-02
2.49E-06
0.0038
Aoylonitrile
3.90E-02
2.65E-06
0.0037
Methyl Chloride
5.31E-01
9.56E-07
0.0013
•
Styrene
6.58E-01
3.75E-07
0.00041
Acrylamide
4.34E-05
5.64E-08
0.000083
•
Epichlorohydrin
3J1E-02
4.21E-08
0.000071
Propylene Oxide
8.46E-03
3.13E-08
0.000045
.
PCBs
8.76E-06
1.93E-08
0.000027
•
Beryllium
1.59E-06
3.82E-09
0.0000057
-
Aggregated over all source categories among all receptor grids
Aggregated over all inventoried POM emission sources
indicates less than 0.1%
April 1993
Page 42
-------
Final Summary Report
TABLE 11
AGGREGATED HAZARD INDICES BY POLLUTANTS BY POM EMISSION ORIGIN*
Pollutant
Individual
Lifetime
Lifetime
Percent
Concentrations
Individual
Cancer
Cancer
(ug/m3)
Risks
Cases
Cases
1,3-Butadiene
1 05E+0I
3.U6E-03
4 69
23.36
Hexavalent Chromium
1.79E-01
2.15E-03
3 69
18.38
Formaldehyde
1.87E+02
2 44E-03
360
17.94
POM (Diesel Particulate)"
9 36E+01
I.59E-03
2 42
12.05
Coke Oven Emissions
1.30E+00
8.05E-04
1.20
5.96
Carbon Tetrachloride
4 87E+01
7.30E-04
1.07
5.33
Benzene
6 29E-»01
5.22E-04
0 80
3 96
POM (Gasoline Particulate)6
9.29E+00
3.57E-04
0.54
2.72
POM (Turbine Particulate)
1 63E+01
2.76E-04
0.39
1.94
POM (B(a)P Surrogate)
1 37E-01
2.32E-04
0 35
176
Arsenic
4.37E-02
1.88E-04
0 27
1.35
Gasoline Vapors
2.35E+02
1J5E-04
0.24
1.19
Ethylene Oxide
1.29E+00
1.29E-04
019
0.94
Hexachlorobenzene
3.68E-01
1.69E-04
0.13
066
Tnchloroethylene
3.07E+01
5.22E-05
0.077
0.38
Petchloroethylene
8.12E+01
4.71E-05
0.074
0.37
Cadmium
2J36E-02
4.25E-05
0.062
0.31
POM (Distillate Particulate1)
4.24E+00
3.82E-05
0.059
0.30
Methylene Chloride
8-25E+OI
3.88E-05
0.0S8
0.29
Chloroform
1.68E400
3.86E-05
0.057
028
Asbestos
3.03E-03
2.30E-05
0.035
0.17
Dioxins
434E-07
1.43E-05
0.021
0.11
Vinyl Chloride
8.61E-02
7.23E-06
0.010
Ethylene Dichlonde
3.21E-01
8.34E-06
0.0087
-
POM (Piston Particulate)
4.61E-01
7.37E-06
0.0082
-
Ethylene Dibtomide
2.28E-02
5.02E-06
0.0067
-
POM (Woodstoves)"1
1.02E-01
2.96E-06
0.0044
-
Vinylidene Chloride
4.98E-02
2.49E-06
0.0038
-
Acrylomtrile
3.90E-02
2.65E-06
0.0037
-
Methyl Chloride
5J1E-01
9.56E-07
0.0015
-
Styrene
6.58E-01
3.75E-07
0.00041
-
Acrylamide
434E-05
5.64E-08
0.000083
-
Epichlorohydrin
3.51E-02
4J21E-08
0.000071
-
Propylene Oxide
8.46E-03
3.13E-08
0.000045
-
PCBs
8.76E-06
1.93E-08
0.000027
-
Beryllium
1.59E-06
3.82E-09
0.0000057
-
Aggregated over all source categories among all receptor grids
Includes particulate emissions from both road vehicles and nonroad mobile sources
Particulate emissions from residential beating using distillate oil
POM emissions from residential wood combustion including both woodstoves and fireplaces
indicates less than 0.1%
APRIL 1993
Page 43
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANCER RISK
BY POLLUTANT
Formaldehyde 17.9%
Hexavalent Chromium 18.4%
1,3-Butadiene 23.4%
Others 15.5%
Coke Oven Gases 6.0%
POM/Particulate Matter 10.8%
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES « 20.1
-------
M
O
PenNng Road mw.ii
CANCER CASES
0. 30
0 34
0 . 13
0 00
4629 1073
UTMY IN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOV
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR CHID
POLLUTANT I.3-BUTADIENE
"I
Midway
Airport
«U4 70thStreat
439 19
MOM
1623 6200 03 2i
UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IS 4 €9
-------
.as
CANCER CASES
0.21
0. H
0 .07
O 00
4679 3075
UTMY IN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STLOY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
POLLUTANT POM/PARTICULATE MATTER
Midway
Aliport
OU4 70tti8tn«t
439 19
4821 8200 433 24
UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OP CASES IS 1 78
-------
Road 4M0.lt
CANCER CASES
0.3B
0. 39
0 IB
0 00
4629 1075
UTMT IN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
POLLUTANT- HEXAVAL6NT CHROMIUM
i:kV
UTMX IN KM
4623.6200 433 24
Midway
Alipoit
43144 70thStroa!
439 19
-------
PwaMngRoed
CANCER CASES
0. IB
0 12
0 06
0 00
4679 1073
UTMT IN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOt
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
POLLUTANT' FORMALDEHYDE
4623.6200 433.24
UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IS 3 60
Midway
Airport
43*14 70th SUM
439 19
-------
Final Summary Report
IV.3 PEAK LIFETIME CANCER CASES
Peak cancer cases occur at receptor grid #26, (UTMY,UTMX) = (4626.06.434.09). This
particular grid is approximately bounded by 59th Street to the south, Ridgeland Avenue to the
east, 55th Street to the north, and Oak Park Avenue to the west. The number of lifetime cancer
cases estimated at this receptor grid alone contributes 5% (about 1 case) of the cumulative total
number of 18 lifetime cancer cases in the area. As expected, the hazard contributions to this
particular receptor grid attributed to source categories and pollutants (Figures 22 and 23) are also
dominated by contributors identified in the overall risk scenarios.
The lifetime individual risk at receptor #26 is 3.64 x 10"4 (see Table 8). The lifetime
individual risk at receptor #30 is 4.16 x 10J, but there is no population at this grid because it is
in the middle of Midway Airport Grid #31 also has a higher estimated lifetime individual risk
(3.96 x 10"4) but has a lower total population and thus less lifetime cancer cases. All these risks
are within the range of expected cancer risks found in urban areas.
IV.4 RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROPOSED FACILITIES
Robbins Incinerator is a proposed facility. The public has been paying a great deal of
attention to air toxic releases from this facility. Based on our assessment, it would pose a risk
of approximately 0.0052 lifetime cancer cases to the study area. These potential risks associated
with the Robbins Incinerator are for the receptor area only. This study has not attempts to
characterize the overall risks of Robbins Incinerator to people throughout its airshed or to people
living in its immediate vicinity.
Sun Chemical Incinerator, a formerly proposed RCRA facility, is estimated to pose a risk
of 0.00033 cancer cases over 70 years in the Southwest Chicago study area. Sun Chemical
Incinerator is included in the study solely to respond to public questions about the potential risk
if it were to be built The proposed project has been withdrawn by the company. U.S. EPA is
not aware of any intent by the company to repropose this incinerator. Information on distribution
of risks at individual receptor grids by Robbins Incinerator and Sun Chemical Incinerator is
contained in Appendix I. It must be noted that the overall risk assessment results of the study
would not have been significantly affected with inclusion of either facility.
April 1993
Page 49
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANCER RISK AT PEAK RECEPTOR
BY SOURCE CATEGORY
Chrome Platers 54.9%
Nonroad Engines 6.0%
Others 12.0%
Background Emissions 11.1%
Road Vehicles 16.0%
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES « 1.03
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANCER RISK AT PEAK RECEPTOR
BY POLLUTANT
Hexavalent Chromium 56.4%
Others 12.5%
Formaldehyde 9.3%
POM/Particulate Matter 10.6%
1,3-Butadiene 11.2%
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES = 1.03
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Final Summary Report
CHAPTER V
UNCERTAINTIES
Since scientific uncertainty is a unavoidable concern for any risk assessment, several types
of uncertainties must be noted while interpreting the nsk assessment results concluded in this
study. They are described as follows:
a. Some of the toxicants investigated in this study are characterized as either
probable or possible human carcinogens. The quantified cancer potency factors
of these toxicants may overstate or understate the true cancer potency. Thus, the
cancer nsk estimates are not meant to be representative of actual risk. Instead,
they are meant to be used in a relative sense, to compare risks among pollutants.
It should also be noted that U.S. EPA is currently reevaluating the health data for
formaldehyde, 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. An U.S. EPA risk assessment for
diesel particulate matter is also in progress.
b. Dispersion modeling itself is probabilistic, not deterministic. Concurrence of a
wind direction and a stability class is stochastic, not predictable. FstimareH
concentrations at a receptor can only be computed based on averages and most-
likely cases. The exposure methodology assumes that the population is
continuously exposed to the outdoor modeled concentration. This assumption may
not reflect the actual scenario.
c. Uncertain information on stack parameters and location of emission points may
result in skewed dispersion factors. In addition, the AIRS/AFS emissions
information for Illinois contains emissions data prior to 1988.
d. Most of the speciation factors used to speciate organics from VOCs and
from particulate matter were derived based on nationwide statistics. Speciated
emissions may not mirror the highly localized air toxics scenario. Also, the factor
of 0.1% used to speciate hexavaient chromium emissions from total chromium
emissions emitted by sources such as steel mills is not process-specific and may
consequently result in over- or underestimation of risks.
e. Apportioning all area source emissions in the area north to the receptor network
by population may not be precise. Land use patterns and dwelling units, for
example, may be more representative of certain area emission types.
April 1993
Paqe S3
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Final Summary Report
f The use of one compound of known toxicity as a surrogate for other similar
compounds in a mixture may lead to over- or underestimates of risk. In this
study, for example, POM is assumed to have the same cancer unit risk factor as
B{a)P for some emission sources. Since B(a)P is among the most potent of the
carcinogenic PAHs, and since not ail PAHs are carcinogenic, the use of this value
is likely to overestimate risk from the POM mixture. A similar overestimate may
result from the use of the cancer potency factor for the most potent dioxin
(2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin) as a surrogate for all dioxins. Data on
synergistic or antagonistic effects is almost never available, so cancer risks from
various chemicals in a mixture are assumed to be additive.
g. Because of limitations, such as insufficient information available for military and
air taxiing aircraft types at Midway Airport and corresponding toxics emission
factors, many assumptions and approximations were made while preparing the
Midway airport emissions inventory. These aspects of our methodology may have
affected the accuracy of the emission estimates.
h. Emissions used to assess risks attributed to the aircraft taxi/idle phase were
estimated based on the default time-in-mode (TIM) value. This may result m
overestimation of cancer risks because the TIM value for taxi/idle at Midway had
been decreased significantly following the Midway Airlines' bankruptcy in 1990.
i. With the exposure methodology used in this study, the lifetime cancer risk for
each grid is calculated based on the population residing within the grid. This
approach does not account for personal activity to and from other grids.
j. Some source contributors to cancer cases are likely to be underestimated, since the
background concentrations of formaldehyde and carbon tetrachloride have not been
attributed to sources.
k. The motor vehicle emission factors for benzene, formaldehyde, and 1,3-butadiene
are derived based in part on the MOBILE4.1 emissions model. A revised version,
MOBILESa, has recently been released. Toxic emission factors derived using
MOBILESa would be larger than those given in this report.
1. Since no health data exist for exposure to aircraft particulate matter, and there is
a paucity of particulate matter emissions data for aircraft (particularly for
turboprop and piston engines), risk estimates associated with aircraft particulate
matter are highly uncertain.
April 1993
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Final Summary Report
m. Emissions attributed to vehicle refueling loss are assumed to be zero m the study.
This usually results in an underestimate of emissions, particularly of benzene.
Therefore, a small amount of benzene would be missed by this assumption.
The above uncertainties underlying the risk estimates dictate that the risk assessment
results in this study should be used cautiously. This study may either overestimate or
underestimate the risks, and in either case may provide risk estimates which differ substantially
from true risks. Any risk assessment study such as this represents a "snapshot in time" of one's
collective understanding of the urban air toxics issue. In fact, emission estimates and risk
characterization techniques are subject to frequent revisions as newer data become available.
Hence, care should be taken when interpreting any results from this study or comparing these
results to those from other studies where different data have been used.
April 1993
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Final Summary Report
REFERENCES
AdJer, Jonathan M, and Carey, Penny M.f "Air Toxics Emissions and Health Risks from Mobile
Sources," Presented at the 82nd Annual Air and Waste Management Association Meeting,
Anaheim, CA, June 25-30, 1989.
Carey M, Penny, "Air Toxics Emissions From Motor Vehicles," EPA-AA-TSS-PA-86-5, Office
of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI, September 1987.
IDOT, "Illinois Airport Inventory Report 1992," Illinois Department of Transportation,
Springfield, IL.
Lewtas, Joellen, "Carcinogenic Risks of Polycyclic Organic Matter (POM) from Selected
Emission Sources," Deliverable Report No. 3128, Health Effects Research Laboratory, Research
Triangle Park, NC, February 28, 1991.
Pepelko, W. and Ris, C., "Update on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Activities in the
Assessment of Mobile Source Air Toxics," IN: Toxic Air Pollutants from Mobile Sources:
Emissions and Health Effects, Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA, 1992.
Summerbays, John, "Estimation and Evaluation of Cancer Risks Attributed to Air Pollution in
Southeast Chicago," Air and Radiation Division, Region 5, USEPA, Chicago, IL, September
1989.
Summerhays, John, and Croke, Harriet, "Aii Toxics Emission Inventory for the Southeast
Chicago Area," Air and Radiation Branch, Region 5, USEPA, Chicago, IL, July 1987.
Summerhays, John, "Updates to an Air Toxics Emission Inventory for the Southeast Chicago
Area," Air and Radiation Branch, Region 5, USEPA, Chicago, EL, August 1989.
Sweet, Clyde W., and Vermette, Stephen J„ Toxic Volatile Organic Chemicals in Urban Air in
Illinois," HWRIC RR-057, Hazardous Waste Research and Information Center, Champaign, IL,
October 1991.
TRANSPORT CANADA, "Vancouver International Airport: Parallel Runway Project
Environmental Impact Statement," Vancouver, Canada, August 1990.
April 1993
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Final Summary Report
USEPA/OAQPS, "Assessing Multiple Pollutant Multiple Source Cancer Risks from Urban Air
Toxics,1' EPA-450/2-89-010, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, NC, April 1989.
USEPA/OAQPS, "Cancer Risk from Outdoor Exposure to Air Toxics," EPA-450/l-90-004a,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, September 1989.
USEPA/OAQPS, "Industrial Source Complex (ISC) Dispersion Model User's Guide - Second
Edition," EPA-450/4-84-005a and b, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research
Triangle Park, NC.
USEPA/OAQPS, "Air Emissions Species Manual - Volume 1: Volatile Organic Compound
Species Profile," Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC,
April 1988.
USEPA/OAQPS, "Air Emissions Species Manual - Volume 2: Particulate Matter Species Profile,"
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, April 1988.
USEPA/OAQPS, "Analysis of Air Toxics Emissions, Exposures, Cancer Risks and Controllability
in Five Urban Areas - Volume I: Base Year Analysis and Results," EPA-450/2-89-012a, Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC July 1989.
USEPA/OAQPS, "AIRS Facility Subsystem User's Reference Manual," Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
USEPA/OAQPS, "VOC/PM Speciation Data System Documentation and User's Guide," EPA-
450/2-91-002, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC,
November 1990.
USEPA/OIRM, "PIPQUIC User's Guide," Office of Information Resources Management,
Washington, DC.
USEPA/OMS, "User's Guide to MOBILE4.1 (Mobile Source Emission Factor Model)," Office
of Mobile Source, Ann Arbor, MI, 1991.
USEPA/OMS, "Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation - Volume IV: Mobile Sources,"
EPA Report EPA-450/4-81-026d, Office of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, ML
April 1993
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Final Summary Report
USEPA/OMS, "Nonroad Engine Emission Inventories for CO and Ozone Nonattainment
Boundaries - Chicago CMS A". Developed by Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. and
Submitted to the Office of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI, 1992.
USEPA/OMS, "Methodology to Estimate Nonroad Equipment Populations by Nonattainment
Areas". Developed by Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. and Submitted to the Office of
Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI, September 30, 1991.
USEPA/OMS, "Methodology to Calculate Nonroad Emission Inventories at the County and Sub-
County Level" Developed by Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. and Submitted to the
Office of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, MI, 1992.
USEPA/ORD, "CDM 2.0 - Climatological Dispersion Model User's Guide," EPA-600/8-85-029,
Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC.
USEPA/Region 5, "The Transboundary Air Toxics Study: Final Summary Report". Developed
by Engineering-Science, Inc. under Contract No. 68-02-4398, Work Assignment No. 47.
Submitted to Pamela Blakley, Air and Radiation Division, Region 5, USEPA, Chicago, IL,
December 1990.
USEPA/Region 5, "Air Toxics Emission Inventories for the Lake Michigan Region: Final
Report". Developed by Engineering-Science Inc. under EPA Contract No. 68-02-4398, Work
Assignment No. 15. Submitted to Pamela Blakley and Mardi Klevs, Air and Radiation Division,
Region 5, USEPA, Chicago, IL. April 1990.
USDOT/FAA, "A Microcomputer Pollution Model for Civilian Airports and Air Force Bases:
Model Description," Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC, August 1988.
April 1993
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Appendix A
APPENDIX A
EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR ADDITIONAL POINT SOURCES
April 1993
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Appendix A
APRIL 1993
Page a*2
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TTMT'ivn STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PBCTBCTiaN ME2CY
REGION V
DATE:
AFK o e 1SS1
SUBJECT: Emissions Estimate for Facilities in Southwest Chicago
PKCM: John SummeAavs
Regulation Development Section
Air Enforcement Branch
Xuan-Mai Tran
Regulation Development Section
Air Toxics and Radiation Branch
TO: Carl Nash, Chief
Regulation Development Section
Air Toxics and Pacliation Branch
Based on a review of available literature, we have developed emissions
estimates for three facilities in Southwest Chicago. These facilities are the
Bobbins Incinerator, the potential Sun Oil hazardous waste incinerator,
General Electric, and Midway Airport.
Emissions estimates for the Bobbins incinerator are based on design capacity
of 1200 tons per day arri 365 days per year of refuse derived fuel burned.
Emission factors for this type of facility are taken frunpage 4-20 of the
reference Estimating Air Ttaxjr? finfraions frqn WLirnr'ITVl1
Ccmbustors. published in April 1989 as EPA report number EPA-450/2-89-006.
Table 1 shows the emissions factors and estimated emissions for each pollutant
in the Southwest Chicago study.
Emissions estimates for the once-proposed Sun Oil hazardous waste incinerator
are ba«=^ largely on information in their permit application. For benzene,
supplemental information on waste volumes was also used. The total volume of
RC3RA waste generated by Sun Oil in the first 10 months of 1987 was
4 189 200 lbs. Extrapolation to a full year yields an annual estimate of
5'027^040 lbs of lOA* waste per year. Table 4-1 of their RCRA Part B permit
application provides information on the ccnpositian of Sun Oil's waste. Biis
table indicates that distillate oil fraction of their waste represents 22% of
their primary waste. Applying this fraction to the full waste stream, and
conservatively assuming that 2% of this 22% is benzene, we estimate that the
annual waste volume includes 22,119 lbs of benzene. Assuming that
incineration will destroy or remove 99.99% of this substance yields an
emission estimate of 2.212 lbs per year of benzene.
Similarly, Table 4-1 of the Part B permit application indicates that the
primary waste includes 7.05 ppm of arsenic, 1.5 ppn of beryllium, 2.41 ppmof
cadmium, and 350.5 pan of chromium (conservatively assumed to be emitted 100%
as hexavalent chruniua). As noted en page 2-33, control eqmpnent including a
-------
baghouse is expected to reduce particulate emissions fcy 99.6%. Assuming on
this basis that 0.4% of the above metals in the waste would be emitted to the
atmosphere yields annual emissions estimates of 0.142 lbs of arsenic,
0.030 lbs of beryllium, 0.048 lbs of cadmium, and "5.048 lbs of (hexavalent)
chranium.
Emissions estimates for General Electric facility are based on Midwest
Research Institute (MRI). MRI recommends use of a spillage factor of 0.01% of
material being spilled. This spillage factor was then-cited in Section 4.7 of
AP-42, Haste Solvent Reclamation. The total tetzachloroethylene generated was
20 Ibs/yr. Assuming all of this would spilled, then the emission estimate for
tetrachloroethylene is 0.002 lbs/yr.
The emissions estimates for Midway Airport rely on an emissions estimte of
462 tons per year of volatile organic compounds (V3C) developed for the ozone
Federal Implementation Plan. The emissions estimate also relies an species
emissions factor information provided in a September 1987 reference entitled
Literature Review Concerning Air Carcinogens NAirports. A summary of the
relevant information is attached. Tests of exhaust conpositian for a CFM-56
engine were considered most representative of jets using Midway Airport.
Measurements of benzene and styrene were based on gas chromatography with
cryogenic precancentration; measurements of formaldehyde were on
dinitrophenylhydrazine inpinger collection; and measurements of polycyclic
aromatic hydrocarbon were based an X-ray diffraction. Measurements were
conducted at idle, 30% thrust, and 80% thrust.
Species fractions were ralraiJatai by dividing the cr
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Appendix A
April 1993
Page A«6
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TABLE 1
emissions ESTIMATES FOR BOBBINS INCINERATOR
TWMifl-awl-g Fm-iss-ions Factors al-oH Fm-jgg-inng
Arsenic 46 lbs/106 tons 20.148 Ibs/yr
narfmiimi 38 lbs/106 tons 16.644 lhs/yr
<*Viri uniiTm 660 lbs/10^ tons 289.080 lbs/yr
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Appendix B
appendix b
MIDWAY EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND DISPERSION MODELING RESULTS
APRIL 1993
Page B*1
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Appendix B
Paqe B*2
April 1993
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Appendix B
B.l INTRODUCTION
An emissions inventory was developed for Midway Airport. The inventory includes
emission estimates from two major mobile sources at the airport: aircraft and automobiles. These
two mobile sources required diverse approaches to estimating the emissions, including computer
database calculations and manual calculations. Source research was conducted in many areas,
and several agencies were contacted regarding emissions and operations data.
Source data were collected on the number and type of aircraft that have used Midway
Airport in the past ten years as well as the number of flights which were attributed to Midway
Airlines before bankruptcy. This information is presented in Exhibit B-l. Additionally, source
data were collected so that emissions amounts for total hydrocarbons (THC) and paniculate
matter could be calculated. When necessary, assumptions and default values were utilized due
to the lack of actual data. These assumptions are identified in the report. Following calculation
of the THC and particulate matter emission amounts, the THC data were then used to estimate
emission amounts of three carcinogens: benzene, formaldehyde, and 1,3-butadiene. Particulate
matter emissions were also estimated. Please note that it is particularly difficult to estimate
emissions of particulate matter, since direct measurement of particulate matter emissions from
aircraft engines are typically not available. Also, particulate matter emission rates that arc
available are likely to be overestimates.
Based on the prepared inventory, air dispersion modeling was conducted to estimate
concentrations at targeted receptor grids. This provided the necessary information to assess
carcinogenic risks to the area population attributed to air pollution from mobile sources at
Midway Airport
B2 EMISSIONS INVENTORY PREPARATION
During the development of the Midway Airport emissions inventory, efforts were focused
on four possible emission source types: aircraft, automobiles, service vehicles, and other non-
aircraft sources. In this section, we present the sources of data as well as the assumptions and
approaches taken to estimate the emissions from these sources.
Emission estimates from the various types of sources were calculated using several
methods and procedures, including two computer programs, the Emissions and Dispersion
Modeling System (EDMS) and the FAA Aircraft Engine Emissions Database (FAEED), and
spread sheet calculations. Both EDMS and FAEED were released by the Federal Aviation
Authority (FAA).
April 1993
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Appendix B
B.2.1 EMISSIONS FROM AIRCRAFT SOURCES
Aircraft are the largest source of pollutant emissions at Midway. However, there is
limited emissions data on the various aspects of aircraft operations. Emissions for this source
type were often calculated using default values and assumptions derived through research and
discussions with various representatives in several agencies at the Federal, State, and local levels.
Four aircraft categories providing services at Midway in 1990 were identified: commercial
air carriers, air taxi, general aviation, and military. For each category, the following steps were
used to estimate particulate emissions and toxics emissions:
(1) Determine the mixing height to be applied to the landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle.
A LTO cycle consists of 4 operational phases: approach, landing, taxi/idle, and
climbout.
• The mixing height is important mainly for nitrogen oxide (NO,) emissions. Since
thic inventory only calculated THC and particulate matter emissions, a default
value of 3,000 feet in FAEED was used.
(2) Define the fleet make-up for each aircraft category using the airport The make-
up of an aircraft fleet contains all aircraft types in each category that either landed
or took off from the airport during a given year. The 1990 Midway Airport fleet
was used for this inventory.
(a) Commercial Air Carriers
• The fleet make-up was taken from data supplied in Airport Activity
Statistics of Certified Route Carriers. 1990. published by the FAA.
(b) Air Taxis
• No data regarding the fleet make-up were available. After discussions
with the U.S. EPA Office of Mobile Sources (OMS), it was decided to
assume that 73% of air taxi operations were conducted by piston engine
aircraft The remaining 27% were assumed to be turbine engine
operations.
April 1993
Page B-4
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Appendix B
(c) General Aviation
• As with the air taxi fleet, no data regarding the make-up were available.
OMS recommended an aircraft engine mix of 94% piston and 6% turbine.
(d) Military
• This category contained the least amount of available data. Several
agencies were contacted to determine the fleet make-up.
(i) The U.S. Air Force Reserves stated no operations were conducted
at Midway Airport, only at O'Hare. They recommended contacting
the National Guard.
(ii) The National Guard does conduct operations at Midway, but does
not maintain statistics. They did make some observations:
• There are almost no piston engines in operation; practically all of
the air force aircraft use turboprop or turbojet engines.
• They estimated that approximately 95% of the operations are
conducted by BELL UH-1 helicopters, with BEECH C-12 email
cargo jets comprising most of the remaining operations.
• The National Guard approximations were discussed with the
Midway Airport Control Tower. They generally concurred with the
National Guard, but estimated that 95%-98% of operations were
conducted by UH-1 helicopters.
(3) Determine airport activity as the number of LTO cycles for each aircraft category.
• Airport operations data for commercial air carriers were taken from Airport
Activity Statistics of Certified Route Carriers. 1990.
• Airport operations data for all other aircraft categories were contained in FAA Air
Traffic Activity. It supplied the number of operations (an operation being either
a landing or takeoff), that was divided by two to determine the number of LTOs.
April 1993
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Appendix B
(4) Select emission indices for each category.
• Indices were based on the type and number of engines on the aircraft, and on type
of pollutant being emitted.
THC Emission Estimation
(a) Commercial Air Carriers
• Aircraft types were identified in Airport Activity Statistics of Certified
Route Carriers. 1990.
• Engine types and number of engines were identified in FAEED, with the
following exceptions:
CO Emission rates for the BEECH 18 aircraft engine (R-985-AN PW)
were not listed in FAEED and could not be found elsewhere.
Therefore, we used the emission rates from engine PT6A-41 (Piper
PA-42 Cheyenne). This engine was used for general Air Taxi
turboprop engines in the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency
flEPA) 1990 Base Year Emissions Inventory for Cook County.
(ii) Boeing B 737-100 and B 737-200 were grouped as B 737-100/200
in Airport Activity Statistics of Certified Route Carriers. 1990.
When the data were input to FAEED, the emission rates from
Boeing B 737-100 aircraft were used.
• Emission rates were not available in FAEED for the JT8D-7D
engine (one of the engine types of the B-737-100), so its market
share (4%) was reassigned to engine JT8D-7B.
(iii) FAEED identified three engines for Boeing B 737-500, each with
a different emission rate and a 0% market share. To compute the
inventory, each engine type was given a one third (33 1/3%)
market share.
April 1993
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Appendix B
(b) Air Taxis
• No specific engine data were available. To estimate an emission rate,
piston engine emissions were manually calculated using an emission rate
that was the average of seven piston engine emission rates identified in
AP-42. Emissions from turbine engines were calculated in FAEED using
two turbojet engines: the PT6A-27 (32% of turbine operations) from the
De Havilland DHC-6/300 aircraft and the PT6A-41 (68% of turbine
operations) from the Piper PA-42 Cheyenne aircraft. The operation
percents were based on percents relative to the number of U.S. registered
aircraft as of December 31, 1989. Turbine data were obtained from
Chapter 5 of the U.S. EPA report number EPA^50/4-81-026d, Procedures
for Emission Inventory Preparation - Volume IV: Mobile Sources
(Volume IV guidance).
(c) General Aviation
• The inventory for both piston and turbine engine aircraft was calculated
using the same assumptions, data, and methods as Air Taxis for the
appropriate engine type.
(d) Military
• Emissions from the Beech C-12 were calculated in FAEED.
• Emissions from the Bell UH-1 (engine T53-L-1 ID) were calculated usmg
data from the Volume IV guidance document.
Particulate Emission Estimation
Data were only available from AP-42. If the particulate emission rate for a
corresponding engine type was available, the data were used. For all others,
particulate emissions were calculated using an average emission rate.
April 1993
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Appendix B
(a) Commercial Air Carriers
• Specific particulate matter emissions data were available for only one
engine type: the JT8D-17. This engine type comprised 81% of the DC-50
fleet in 1990; it was assumed to constitute 100% for the inventory.
• The average emission rate was determined from seven turbofan engine
emission rates identified in AP-42. Five of the emission rates were
specifically identified, the other two were assumed (in AP-42).
(b) Air Taxis
• Piston engine emissions were estimated by multiplying by 5% the total
organic gases (TOG) emission factors for appropriate piston engines
representative of the mix at Midway, as recommended by OMS. This
percentage is approximately the percentage of particulate matter relative
to TOG for non-catalyst light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs).
• Turbine engine emissions were determined using the one available
turboprop engine emission rate (from a Garrett AiResearch TPE 331-3
engine) identified in AP-42.
(c) General Aviation
• The inventory for both piston and turbine engine aircraft was calculated
using the same assumptions, data, and methods as Air Taxis for the
appropriate engine type.
(d) Military
• Emissions from Beech C-12 aircraft were determined using the emission
rate from the same turboprop engine (TPE 331-3) used for determining Air
Taxi turbine engine emissions.
• No data could be found regarding particulate emissions from Bell UH-1
helicopters; since they are a relatively small part of the entire emissions
inventory, they were considered negligible.
April 1993
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Appendix B
(5) Estimate a "Time-In-Mode" (TIM) for each aircraft category at the airport.
• TIM values are necessary for each phase-of-operation; each phase contains its own
characteristics, including fuel flow and emission rates. Therefore, modeling is
different for each phase and source. The four phases-of-operation are: taxi/idle
(TI), takeoff (TO), climbout (CO), and approach (AP). The TIM and phase-of-
operation are important because they determine the position of a moving emission
source.
• Table B.l identifies all TIM values used in the emissions inventory. Unless
otherwise noted, all numbers are default values given in FAEED and/or Volume
IV guidance.
April 1993
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Appendix B
TABLE B.l TIM VALUES
Type of Type of Time-In Mode (min.)
Operation
Aircraft
H
TO
CO
AP
Commercial
BEECH 18'
26
0.5
2.5
4.5
All Other commercial
26
0.7
2.2
4.0
All aircraft
103
Air Taxi and
All non-piston engines
26
0.5
2.5
4.5
Gen. Aviation
All piston engines
16
0.3
5.0
6.0
All aircraft
102
Military
C-12/A/B/C
13
0.4
0.5
1.6
UH-1
153
4
6.8
6.8
All aircraft
102
Note:
1 = The engine for a PA-42 Cheyenne aircraft (PA6A-41) was used instead of the
engine for the BEECH 18 aircraft
1 - De minimis value. See explanation in the report.
3 = The taxi/idle time for UH-1 helicopters was given for two phases: R and Gr.;
an average TIM was calculated and used in the inventory
4 = No takeoff TIM was identified. See explanation in the report.
The taxiAdle TTMs listed in Table B.l and used in the inventory are the sums of
the taxi/idle-in TIM and taxi/idle-out TIM identified in Volume TV guidance for
each respective type of operation or aircraft category. The two TTMs were
combined since FAEED computes emissions for only one taxi/idle mode; also, the
emission rates for the respective phases are equal.
Two inventories were prepared, each with a different taxi/idle TIM. One utilized
default TTMs found in FAEED or in Volume IV guidance document The other
utilized a 10 minute taxi/idle TIM. The 10 minute TIM is &
-------
Appendix B
time required for an aircraft to complete a phase-of-operation if it is the only
aircraft in the queue. The de minimis assumption is valid for future emissions
since Midway Airport operations were significantly reduced with the bankruptcy
of Midway Airlines id 1991.
• No takeoff TIM was identified for UH-1 helicopters. We assumed the takeoff
time negligible for the following reasons:
• The takeoff phase of a helicopter operation would take a short amount of
time, less than one minute (based on the assumption that takeoff is defmed
as the ume from the start of upward motion unul the helicopter lifts off the
ground)
• The identified emission rates are extremely low (less than 1 lb/hr).
• The small emission rate and short TIM would combine with the other
factors to produce a calculated emission amount that was very small in
comparison with the other phases of operation. Therefore, it can be
considered negligible.
(6) Calculate an inventory based on airport activity, TIM, and aircraft emission
factors.
• The inventory was calculated for THC and particulate matter emissions. FAEED
was utilized for all THC emission calculations except for air taxi and general
aviation turbine engines, and the UH-1 helicopter engine. All particulate matter
emissions were hand-calculated (or determined on a spread-sheet).
(7) Convert the THC data to determine the respective emission amounts of benzene,
formaldehyde, and 1,3-butadiene using correction factors for the steps noted
below:
(a) Convert the THC data to volatile organic compounds (VOC) data.
(b) Convert the VOC data to TOG data.
(c) Use aircraft toxic fractions of TOG to determine required toxic pollutant
emissions.
April 1993
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Appendix B
All correction factors, conversion formulae, and toxic fractions are contained in
Volume IV guidance document or were supplied in a memo by OMS (Exhibit B-
2).
B.2.2 EMISSIONS FROM AUTOMOBILE SOURCES
To evaluate the cancer risk attributed to Midway Airport, emissions caused by vehicles
which travelled within the three parking lots located around Midway Airport for access by airline
passengers and airport employees should be assessed wherever possible. Park Lot B shown on
Figure B.l was no longer in service prior to 1990 and therefore was not considered in the study.
In addition, vehicular emissions generated by vehicles on the portion of Helen Mikols Drive
(west of South Cicero Avenue) which is on Midway Airport property should also be taken into
account.
The capacity of each parking lot was provided by the Chicago Department of Aviation
(Chicago DOA) and is listed below.
• Main Parking Lot - 1,366 stalls (444 hourly spaces, 700 daily space, and 222
rental car spaces). We assumed that hourly spaces were occupied by different
vehicles every hour during the 20-hour daily operating period from 5:00 am
(exactly one hour earlier than the scheduled first departure) to 1:00 am
(approximately one hour later than the scheduled last arrival). Any daily or rental
car space was assumed to be accessed by only one vehicle pa day.
• Employee Lot (East side of Cicero Avenue) - 300 stalls. We assumed that each
space was used by one employee vehicle once a day.
• Economy Parking Lot (North side of 55th Street) - 2,200 stalls. We also assumed
that each space was used only once as a daily parking space.
The Chicago DOA also provided the number of vehicles that travelled on Helen Mikols
Drive in one summer week (ending June 17,1990). During that week, 65,821 vehicles travelled
on Helen Mikols Drive as counted by the Chicago DOA. All vehicles were counted travelling
to the terminal, as the count was conducted past the main parking lot entrance. Therefore, it was
assumed that no vehicles from the parking lots were included in the count. Based on *hk weekly
number, annual traffic volume was estimated at 3,422,692 vehicles in 1990.
April 1893
Page B*12
-------
Appendix B
Distances travelled by vehicles in the parking lots or on Helen Mikols Drive were then
estimated to compute the vehicle miles travelled (VMT). Table B.2 lists the estimated annual
VMT. Please note that each parking lot was considered fully occupied year around.
TABLE B.2
ESTIMATED VMT AT IDENTIFIED LOCATIONS
Location
Main Parking Lot
Employee Parking Lot
Economy Parking Lot
Helen Mikols Drive
Distance Travelled
per Vehicle (ft)
1,500
750
1,500
1,300
Annual Traffic
Volume
3,577,730
109,500
803,000
3,422,692
Annual
VMT
1,016.401
15,554
228,125
842,708
The last step prior to estimating emissions was to determine the vehicle fleet in these four
sources. We used the representative vehicle fleet mix averaged over all the 1990 fleet mixes of
the 343 selected traffic zones in the Cook County motor vehicle emissions inventory. The
representative fleet mix is as follows in Table B.3:
TABLE B.3
REPRESENTATIVE FLEET MIX
Vehicle Tvoe
Fleet Mix
LDGV
81%
LDGT1
6%
LDGT2
3%
HDGV
1%
LDDV
1%
LDDT
1%
HDDV
6%
MC
1%
April 1993
Page B*13
-------
Appendix B
Based on the representative fleet mix and estimated annual VMT, toxic air pollution was
estimated for each of the four sources. Emission factors selected were directly extracted from
the 1990 1EPA Baseline Emissions data base and were used in conjunction with the OMS-
suggested toxic fractions. The speed was assumed to be 10 mph in these four sources and
Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) credits were w effect as well.
B.2.3 EMISSIONS FROM SERVICE VEHICLES
Service vehicles are those used in land-based airport operations {i.e. luggage transfer
vehicles, aircraft refueling vehicles, emergency and support vehicles). Required data includes
type of vehicle, hours of operation, and fuel use.
B.2.4 EMISSIONS FROM OTHER NON-AIRCRAFT SOURCES
Covered under this source type are power plants/heating plants, incinerators, fuel storage
tanks, and training fires; however, the Deputy Commissioner of Midway Airport identified fuel
storage tanks as the only source of this type at Midway. Required information includes:
• Number and size of tanks;
• Type and amount of fuel stored in each tank; and
• The percent vapor recovery - both when filling the tank and emptying the tank
into vehicles.
B J. EMISSIONS INVENTORY RESULTS
B.3.1 EMISSIONS FROM AIRCRAFT
Tables B.4 - B.8 list the annual THC, particulate matter, VOC, TOG, benzene,
formaldehyde, and 1,3-butadiene emissions breakdown by phase-of-operafcon. Please note that
VOC and TOG are listed for references only. They were not used to conduct the required air
dispersion modeling.
April 1993
Page B*14
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B 4 ANNUAL EMISSIONS (TPY) FOR TAXI/IDLE MODE (DEFAULT TIM)
Aircraft Category
Pollutant
Comm
AT
GA
Mil
Total
Particulate
21.61
2.17
0.38
0.01
24.18
THC
235.02
78.01
17.20
1 48
331.71
VOC
257.28
81 97
18.12
1 64
33901
TOG
287.30
88.45
19.70
1.83
39728
Benzene
5.57
1.77
0 45
004
7.83
Formaldehyde
43 12
11.57
2.28
Q.28
5725
1,3-Butadiene
5.17
1.34
0.28
0 03
6.82
Notes:
Comm. = Commercial air earners GA = General aviation
AT = Air Taxis Mil. = Military
TABLE B.5 ANNUAL EMISSIONS (TPY) FOR TAXI/IDLE MODE (DE MINIMIS TEM)
Aircraft Category
Pollutant
Comm
AT
GA
Mil
Total
Particulate
8.31
1.80
0.43
•
1034
THC
90.39
31.79
7.58
1.02
130.78
VOC
98.95
33.34
7.82
1.13
14124
TOG
110.50
36.08
8.54
1.26
15638
Benzene
2.14
0.76
0.21
0.02
3.13
Formaldehyde
16-59
4.52
0.89
0.19
2119
1,3-Butadiene
1.99
0.54
0.12
0.02
2.67
Notes:
Comm. = Commercial air carriers GA = General aviation
AT = Air Taxis Mil. = Military
* s Annual amount less than 0.01 tpy
April 1993
Page B-15
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B.6 ANNUAL EMISSIONS (TPY) FOR TAKEOFF MODE
Aircraft Category
Pollutant Comm. AT GA Mil Total
Particulate
3.99
0.11
0.01 *
4.11
THC
2.25
0.34
0.15 •
2.74
VOC
2.46
0.33
0.15 *
2.94
TOG
2.75
0.38
0.17 *
3.30
Benzene
0.05
0.01
0.00 *
0.06
Formaldehyde
0.41
0.01
* *
0.42
1,3-Butadiene
0.05
*
* *
0.05
Notes:
Comm.
= Commercial air earners
GA
= General aviation
AT =
Air Taxis
Mil.
= Military
* = Annual amount less than 0.01 tpy
TABLE B.7 ANNUAL EMISSIONS (TPY) FOR CUMBOUT MODE
Aircraft Category
Pollutant
Comm
AT
GA
Mil
Total
Particulate
10.48
0.55
0.14
*
11.17
THC
6.81
4.16
2.11
0.02
13.10
VOC
7.46
4.05
2.04
0.02
1337
TOG
8J3
4.57
2.32
0.02
15.24
Benzene
0.16
0.18
0.09
•
0.43
Formaldehyde
1.25
0.17
0.07
*
1.49
1,3-Butadiene
0.15
0.05
0.02
*
0.22
Notes:
Comm.
= Commercial air earners
GA
s General aviation
AT =
Air Taxis
Mil. '
= Military
* - Annual amount
less than 0.01 tpy
April 1993
Page EM6
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B 8 ANNUAL EMISSIONS (TPY) FOR APPROACH MODE
Aircraft Category
Pollutant
Comm
AT
GA
Mil
Total
Particulate
10.48
0.78
0.15
*
11.41
THC
14.62
7.54
2.41
0.05
24.62
VOC
1600
7 71
2.39
0.05
26.15
TOG
17.87
8 45
2.67
0.06
29.05
Benzene
0.35
0.23
0.08
*
0.66
Formaldehyde
2.68
0 78
0.17
0.01
3.64
1,3-Butadiene
0.32
0 11
0.03
*
0.46
Notes:
Comm.
= Commercial air earners
GA
= General aviation
AT =
Air Taxis
Mil. :
= Military
* = Annual amount less than 001 tpy
Table B.9 lists the total emission amounts for each phase-of-operation as well as a
combined total of all aircraft emissions at Midway Airport Detailed emissions data may be
found in Exhibit B-3, which identifies annual THC and particulate matter emissions by aircraft
and engine type. The exhibit also identifies annual VOC, TOG, benzene, formaldehyde, and 1,3-
butadiene emissions by aircraft category.
B.3.2 EMISSIONS FROM AUTOMOBILE SOURCES
The calculated emissions for automobile sources at Midway Airport are listed in Tables
B.10 - B.13.
April 1993
Page EM7
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B.9 ANNUAL AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS (TPY)
Phase-of-Operation
Pollutant
TI
TO
CO
AP
Total
Particulate
24.18
(10.54)1
4.11
11.17
11.41
50.87 (37.23)
THC
331 71
(130.78)
2.74
13.10
24.62
372.17 (171.24)
voc
359.01
(141.24)
2.94
13.37
26.15
401.47 (183.70)
TOG
397 28
(156.38)
3.30
15.24
29.05
444.87 (203.97)
Benzene
7 83
(3.13)
0.06
0.43
0.66
8.98 (4.28)
Formaldehyde
57 25
(22.19)
0.42
1.49
3.64
62.80 (27.74)
1,3-Butadiene
6 82
(2.67)
0.05
0.22
0.46
7.55 (3.40)
Notes:
1) TI = Taxi/idle mode CO = Climbout mode
TO = Takeoff mode AP = Approach mode
2) Numbers in parenthesis are for emissions calculated using the de minimis taxi/idle tune.
TABLE B.10
EMISSIONS IN MAIN PARKING LOT
Pollutant Annual Emissions
(ton/vr)
TOG 5.711
Gasoline Particulate 0.033
Diesel Particulate 0.092
Benzene 0.150
1,3-Butadiene 0.027
Formaldehyde 0.057
April 1993 Page B*18
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B. 11
EMISSIONS IN EMPLOYEE PARKING LOT
Pollutant Annual Emissions
(ton/vr)
TOG 0.087
Gasoline Paniculate 0.0005
Diesel Particulate 0.0014
Benzene 0.023
1,3-Butadiene 0.0004
Formaldehyde 0.0008
TABLE B.12
EMISSIONS IN ECONOMY PARKING LOT
Pollutant Annual Emissions
f ton/vr)
TOG 1.282
Gasoline Particulate 0.007
Diesel Particulate 0.021
Benzene 0.034
1,3-Butadiene 0.006
Formaldehyde 0.013
April 1983
Page B*19
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B. 13
EMISSIONS ON HELEN MKOLS DRIVE
Pollutant
Annual Emissions
fton/vr)
TOG
Gasoline Particulate
Diesel Particulate
Benzene
1,3-Butadiene
Formaldehyde
4.735
0.027
0.076
0.125
0.022
0.047
Please note that no emissions generated by refueling loss were considered. This may
underestimate the overall emissions. On the other hand, the assumed maximum usage of each
parking lot may cause the over-estimation of emissions. Also, cadmium and asbestos emissions
from automobile sources at Midway were not inventoried since the estimated emissions are
negligible.
B.3.3 EMISSIONS FROM SERVICE VEHICLES
Limited information was received from Midway Airport regarding the service vehicles that
the airport operates. The vehicles were identified by name and type, but no operation parameters
were supplied. Generally, Midway Airport operates a rolling vehicle fleet of approximately 70
vehicles. This number is split relatively equally between heavy vehicles used predominantly for
snow removal efforts during the winter and light vehicles utilized throughout the year.
Comparing this number to the frequency of daily vehicle assess to Midway due to travellers'
activities (comprising a fleet of approximately 9,000 vehicles), emissions from the Midway
service vehicles are negligible. In addition, emissions from utility vehicles (such as snowbloweis,
de-icers, and lawn mowers) at Midway were accounted for in the nonroad mobile source
emissions inventory prepared for the entire study area and could not be easily singled out as a
separate emission category. For these reasons, we excluded the service vehicle emissions from
die Midway Airport inventory.
April 1993 Page B»20
-------
Appendix B
B.3.4 EMISSIONS FROM OTHER NON-AIRCRAFT SOURCES
Midway Airport informed us that our request for information regarding fuel storage tankn
at the Airport was forwarded to the Chicago DOA for review and authorization. At the time of
this report, we had not yet received this information. Due to time constraints, fugitive and other
emissions from the feul storage tanks at Midway are not included in this risk assessment.
B.4 ADR DISPERSION MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT
B.4.1 EMISSION GRIDS FOR AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS DISPERSION MODELING
Dispersion modeling was conducted based on the results of the Midway Airport emissions
inventory. The entire airport area (including runways and terminals) was included in the
emission modeling domain (Figure B.l). The emission quantities were identified and distributed
by the location on an emission grid of a specific operational phase. The airport area,
encompassing approximately a 1.7-kilometer by 1.7-kilometer square with a southwest corner of
(UTM northing, UTM easting) = (4625.2,436.64) in kilometers, was divided into 25 340-meter
by 340-meter equal squares as displayed in Figure B.2. The emission rate for each toxic and
particulate per phase was determined using the following formula:
Emission Rate^^
per bet cmlM)
s Annual Emissions/Total Aircraft Travelling Feet
Next, the annual emissions (by phase) from each emission grid were determined using the
following formula:
Annual Emissions in Grid » (No. Aircraft x Distance Covered in Grid) x Emission Rate
^yvVRnfl pay toot trutlW)
Based upon discussions with the personnel at Midway Airport's Control Tower, the
following assumptions were used in preparation for emission rates assigned among all emission
grids:
The control tower stated that most takeoffs are to the northwest, and most
approaches from the southeast. Therefore, the No. 31 runways are used most
often, approximately 75% of the time. A majority of the remaining operations
occur on the No. 4 runways (taking off to the northeast, and approaching from the
southwest). Therefore, the modeling will be conducted assuming 75% of
operations occur on the No. 31 runways, and the remaining 25% of operations
occur on the No. 4 runways. In addition, runways No. 31C and No. 31R are for
commercial carriers and turbine-engine aircraft only. Piston aircraft will land on
runway No. 31L.
April 1993
Page B*21
-------
CHICAGO MIDWAY AIRPORT
NT
ET
i a m r
6
ft
LMTM DATA
i
:a*v
: w
: til
Ur
j K33. ;
' tx
• 5111
. sen
! *«® i
! 4770 .
-------
Southwest Chicago Study
Midway Area Source
Emission Grids
436J64) \
(4626.9,
43^.34),
\
/
\
A
n
Emission Grid Network
FIGURE 3.2
Page B*23
-------
Appendix B
• All turbine-engine air taxis and general aviation aircraft will utilize the mam
terminals. These are the same terminals as those used by commercial air carriers.
• All piston-engine air taxis and general aviation aircraft will use the west facilities
and the southwest comer of Midway's property.
• The military aircraft are located in the southwest corner of the airport. The
emissions for dispersion modeling would only include helicopter emissions, since
helicopters account for 95% of military aircraft emissions.
• Takeoffs and landings will each utilize approximately 2/3 of their respective
runways.
Additional assumptions were also made to facilitate the estimation of emissions among
all emission grids. These assumptions are as follows:
• Emissions from the taxi/idle phase for both before takeoff (out) and after landing
(in) segments must be accounted for. In the emissions inventory, both segments
were combined into one taxi/idle phase. For dispersion modeling, all pollutant
emission quantities will be proportioned between the two segments according to
the ratio of segment time over taxi/idle phase time. Therefore, the taxi/idle in
segment will contain 19 minutes/26 minutes, or 19/26 of total pollutant emissions
in the taxi/idle phase; the taxi/idle out segment will contain 7/26 of the pollutant
emissions.
• The climbout phase to be considered for the dispersion modeling will include only
the distance from point of takeoff to the edge of the airport boundary. This will
include 1/3 of the relevant runway plus any ground or other area to the airport
border. Although aircraft are typically only at 300 feet when leaving the airport,
we will assume that all climbout phase emissions occur within the airport
boundary only.
• The approach phase to be considered for dispersion modeling will include only the
distance from the edge of the airport to a respective runway, plus 2/3 of that
runway. Although aircraft begin their approach some distance from the airport,
we will assume that all approach phase emissions occur within the airport
boundary only.
April 1993
Page B«24
-------
Appendix B
A sample calculation of emissions at an individual emission grid is included in Exhibit
B-4.
B.4.2 AIR DISPERSION MODELING TECHNIQUES
Emissions from each phase of a LTO cycle distributed to each of the 25 emission grids
were modeled via the Complex Dispersion Model (CDM). For approach and climbout phases,
the emission height was assumed to be 50 meters for certain emission grids located at the
boundary of Midway Airport, specifically grids Al, A2, A4, A5, Dl, D5, El, or E5 (see Figure
B-2). This simulates the emissions originated in the air. Emissions generated from taxi/idle and
landing at each emission gnd were assumed to be released at the ground level (5 meters).
Emissions due to automobiles travelled in the parking lots and passenger pick-up and drop-off
lanes (Helen Mikols Drive) were assigned to one of the four 340-meter by 340-meter emission
grids corresponding to the locations of the sources. These emissions were then modeled via
CDM using the same approach The emission height selected to model vehicular emissions was
also set to be 5 meters.
Thirty-three modeling runs were conducted to generate the necessary concentration
estimates from aircraft engines at Midway. One run was conducted for each emission grid (32
total) with the assumption of ground-level release height One additional run was conducted to
model the emissions released in the air for each of the identified eight emission grids. One-
thousand metric tons per year was used as the input to CDM for each modeling run. We then
stored the CDM-modeled concentrations computed at the 8 x 8 receptor grids in the matrix
format as unit concentration profiles. For each pollutant, combining the CDM concentration
profile, based on the phase of LTO cycle, with its actual emission rate divided by a thousand,
one can come up with the estimated annual concentration profile at the 8 x 8 receptor grids.
April 1993
Page 8*25
-------
Appendix B
B.4.3 RISK CALCULATION
Once we have the annual concentration estimates at the receptor grids, determining the
individual risk estimates is a straightforward procedure. Two assumptions were made. First, we
assume a linear relationship between annual concentration and cancer risk. Second, we assume
a zero threshold value for computing cancer risk. Based on these two assumptions, we can
compute the individual lifetime cancer risk by multiplying the annual concentration value at a
receptor grid by the unit risk factors of those pollutants emitted from the Midway mobile sources.
Rijjc = Qjjt x Fj
individual lifetime cancer risk at receptor "k" due to the emission of
pollutant "j" from emission source "i",
annual concentration at receptor "k" due to the emission of pollutant "j"
from emission source "i",
lifetime unit risk factor of pollutant "j".
Figure B.3 shows the population profile for the targeted 8x8 receptor network. With
the population data available for each receptor grid, cancer cases over a 70-year period can be
computed using the following equation.
lyjL = Ry* x Pk
cancer incidence at receptor "k" due to the emission of pollutant "j" from
emission source "i",
individual lifetime cancer risk at receptor "k" due to the emission of
pollutant "j" from emission source "i",
population residing within the receptor grid "k".
B.4.4 UNIT RISK FACTOR
Table B.14 lists the unit risk factors used in the study to estimate cancer risks attributed
to emissions from the Midway mobile sources. The unit risk factor is defined as an estimate of
the probability that an individual would contract cancer when exposed to a pollutant at an
ambient concentration of one microgram per cubic meter (ug/m3) for 70 years (the average
lifetime).
Kx =
=
Pk =
April 1993
Page B*26
-------
PmHngRoad «s*ot)
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
POPULATION PROFILE AT RECEPTOR GRID
Midway
Airport
2630
4629 3075
4623.0200 433 24 UTMX IN **
TOTAL POPULATION IS 8J054
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B.14
CARCINOGENICITY OF POLLUTANT
LIFETIME EXPOSURE TO A UNIT POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION
(For Pollutants Inventoried in Midway Mobile Sources Only)
Pollutant Unit Risk Factor Weight of Source
(ug/m3)'1 *
Evidence
Rating
of Data
Benzene
0.0000083
nd
IRIS
1,3-Butadiene
0.00028
B2
IRIS
Formaldehyde
0.000013
B1
IRIS
Diesel Particulate
0.000017
B2
AWMA
Gasoline Particulate
0.000051
nd
HERL
Piston Particulate
0.000016
nd
HERL
Turbine Particulate
0.000017
B2
AWMA
A - Known human carcinogen
B - Probable human Carcinogen
B1 - Based on "limited" human data
B2 - Based on "sufficient" animal data
nd - Not determined
HERL: Health Effects Research Laboratory
IRIS: Integrated Risk Information System
AWMA: Published by Air and Waste Management Association
The unit risk factor is defined as an estimate of the probability that an individual will
develop cancer when exposed to a pollutant at an ambient concentration of one
microgram per cubic meter (ug/m3) for 70 years. These unit risk factors are either upper-
bound values or maximum likelihood values
April 1993
Page B*28
-------
Appendix B
B.5 RISK ASSESSMENT RESULTS
In this section, we present the cancer risk estimates computed using the modeled
concentrations at receptor grids. The total number of cancer cases attributed to estimated air
pollution emitted from the Midway mobiie sources is approximately 2 cases over a 70-year
period, or one case every 30 years. This includes cancer risks attributed to emissions from both
aircraft and vehicles travelled at Midway in 1990. The population residing at receptor grids were
estimated at 93,854 people. This suggests that the average risk across the area due to the
emissions from Midway is approximately 2.3 x 10"3. By comparing to the average cancer risk
of 1.9 x 10"* assessed for all identified sources in the Southwest Chicago area, this average risk
is less by roughly 10-fold. Figure B.4 displays the lifetime cancer cases caused by mobile
sources' air pollution at Midway at the receptor grid network. Not surprisingly, receptors located
around Midway Airport have higher cancer cases than others. Table B. 15 lists the hazard indices
at each grid with the percentage of cancer contribution over the estimated total cancer cases of
2, which are attributable solely to air pollution at Midway.
April 1893
Page B»29
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
SOURCE CATEOORV MIDWAY AIRPORT
CANCER CASES
0 . 48
0.12
0. 18
0.00
4828 10 75
UTMY IN KM
ParaNng Road 4tt0.11
Midway
Airport
4823.8200 431.24 UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IS 2 11
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B.15. AGGREGATE HAZARD INDICES AT RECEPTOR
(For Inventoried Midway Mobile Sources Only)
Grid ID
Receptor
Individual
Lifetime
Percent
(S.W. Corner)
Lifetime
Cancer
Cancer
Cancer Risks
Cases
Cases
l
4623.6200 433.24
1.29E-06
0
0
2
4623.6200 434.09
1.73E-06
0
0
3
4623.6200 434.94
1.89E-06
0
0
4
4623.6200 435.79
2.80E-06
0
0
5
4623.6200 436.64
3.94E-06
0
0
6
4623.6200 437.49
6.21E-06
0
0
7
4623.6200 438.34
7.34E-06
0.0026
0.12
8
4623.6200 439.19
5.14E-06
0.012
0.58
9
4624.4325 433.24
1.55E-06
0.0025
0.12
10
4624.4325 434.09
2.18E-06
0.0038
0.18
11
4624.4325 434.94
3.08E-06
0.0065
0.30
12
4624.4325 435.79
4.89E-06
0.0087
0.41
13
4624.4325 436.64
9.56E-06
0.016
0.75
14
4624.4325 437.49
1.46E-05
0.020
0.95
15
4624.4325 438.34
1.42E-05
0.035
1.64
16
4624.4325 439.19
1.26E-05
0.040
1.87
17
4625.2450 433.24
1.89E-06
0.00017
0.008
18
4625.2450 434.09
2.37E-06
0.0073
0.34
19
4625.2450 434.94
3.96E-06
0.010
0.47
20
4625.2450 435.79
9.42E-06
0.032
1.50
21
4625.2450 436.64
4.35E-05
0
0
22
4625.2450 437.49
5.65E-05
0
0
23
4625.2450 438.34
1.02E-O4
0.28
13.04
24
4625.2450 439.19
2.60E-05
0.090
4.22
25
4626.0575 433.24
1.79E-06
0.0049
0.23
26
4626.0575 434.09
2.87E-06
0.0081
0.38
27
4626.0575 434.94
4.09E-06
0.012
0.54
28
4626.0575 435.79
1.15E-05
0.031
1.45
29
4626.0575 436.64
4.23E-05
0
0
30
4626.0575 437.49
2.49E-04
0
0
31
4626.0575 438.34
2.23E-04
0.48
22.58
32
4626.0575 439.19
3.88E-05
0.11
5.12
April 1993
Page B«31
-------
Appendix B
TABLE B.15 AGGREGATE HAZARD INDICES AT RECEPTOR
(For Inventoried Midway MobUe Sources Only)
Grid ID
Receptor
Individual
Lifetime
Percent
(S.W. Corner)
Lifetime
Cancer
Cancer
Cancer Risks
Cases
Cases
33
4626.8700 433.24
2.73E-06
0.0076
0.36
34
4626.8700 434.09
3.01E-06
0.0087
0.41
35
4626.8700 434.94
4.54E-06
0.013
0.61
36
4626.8700 435.79
8.37E-06
0.021
1.01
37
4626.8700 436 64
2.42E-05
0.076
3.58
38
4626.8700 437 49
1.14E-04
0.14
6.40
39
4626.8700 438.34
9.08E-05
0.17
8.16
40
4626.8700 439.19
2.71E-05
0.058
2.71
41
4627.6825 433.24
1.62E-06
0
0
42
4627.6825 434.09
2.26E-06
0
0
43
4627.6825 434.94
3.55E-06
0
0
44
4627.6825 435.79
6.18E-06
0
0
45
4627.6825 436.64
1.28E-05
0.027
1.29
46
4627.6825 437.49
3.45E-05
0.10
4.86
47
4627.6825 438.34
3.55E-05
0.067
3.17
47
4627.6825 439.19
1.77E-05
0.065
3.07
49
4628.4950 433.24
1.27E-06
0.0022
0.11
50
4628.4950 434.09
2.27E-06
0.00011
0.005
51
4628.4950 434.94
3.34E-06
0
0
52
4628.4950 435.79
5.16E-06
0
0
53
4628.4950 436.64
7.07E-06
0
0
54
4628.4950 437.49
2.39E-05
0.10
4.76
55
4628.4950 438.34
2.20E-05
0.022
1.02
56
4628.4950 439.19
1.28E-05
0.020
0.94
57
4629.3075 433.24
1.09E-06
0.0029
0.14
58
4629.3075 434.09
2.04E-06
0.0039
0.18
59
4629.3075 434.94
2.88E-06
0
0
60
4629.3075 435.79
3.28E-06
0
0
61
4629.3075 436.64
5.41E-06
0
0
62
4629.3075 437.49
1.60E-05
0.0084
0.39
63
4629.3075 438.34
1.47E-05
0.00099
0.05
64
4629.3075 439.19
9.76E-06
0.000029
0.001
April 1993
Page B»32
-------
Appendix B
Cancer cases attributed to the Midway mobile sources were also studied by refined source
types and by pollutant. Table B.16 provides a cross reference list of cancer contribution by
mobile source origin and by pollutant.
TABLE B.16
CANCER CASES BY POLLUTANT BY SOURCE CATEGORY
Pollutant
Emission Source
Annual Concentrations
Individual
Lifetime
(ug/m3)
Cancer
Cancer
Risks
Cases
1,3-Butadiene
All Aircraft
2.87E+O0
8 03E-04
1.21
All Vehicles
1.97E-02
5.51E-06
001
Formaldehyde
All Aircraft
2.38E+01
3.09E-04
0.47
All Vehicles
4 15E-02
5 39E-07
0.001
POM/Paraculate
Matter
Turbine Aircraft
Piston Aircraft
Gasoline Vehicles
Diesel Vehicles
1.63E+01
4.61E-01
2.43E-02
6.73E-02
2.76E-04
7.37E-06
1.24E-06
1.14E-06
0.39
0.008
0.0023
0.0021
Benzene
All Aircraft
All Vehicles
3.40E+00
1.10E-01
2.82E-05
9.15E-07
0.041
0.0017
From Table B. 16, we found that 1,3-butadiene is the most significant contributor to cancer
risk in the area. Approximately one case, or 57% of the total cancer cases attributed to the
identified Midway air pollution is caused by 13-butadiene. Formaldehyde and particulate
emissions each contributes roughly 20% of the total cancer cases (about a half case respectively).
Cancer cases due to benzene emissions from Midway, on the other hand, are negligible in
comparison to the total cancer cases of 2.
Overall, emissions from aircraft operated at Midway in 1990 contribute up to 99% of the
total cancer cases. This was expected since the vehicular emissions estimated at Midway are
insignificant compared to the aircraft emissions at Midway. Figures B.5 - B.10 portray the
cancer cases at the receptor grid network by pollutant and by emission source.
April 1993
Page B*33
-------
Road 4M0lH
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
POLLUTANT: 1 . 3-BUTADIENE FROM MIOWAY MOBILE SOURCES
CANCER CASES
0.20
0. 19
0.09
0.00
4629 10T9
UTMT IN KM
Midway
Aliport
4»M4 70th8tra*l
439. 19
4B23.B200 433.24
UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER Of CASES
IS
1 22
-------
PeraNng Road 4810.11
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
POLLUTANT' FORMAL OEHYOE FROM MIDWAY MOBILE SOURCES
CANCER CASES
Midway
Airport
0 00
4B79 1075
<623 6200 13J 2« UTMX IN KM
TOTAL
NUMBER OF CASES IS 0 47
-------
PanNngRoad 401011
Midway
Airport
4B23.6200 433 24 UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IS 0 40
-------
PefsNng Roed 400 12
JJ -nMQOi
CANCER CASES
0 OtO
0 006
0 009
0 000
4699 3079
UTMY IN KM
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
POLLUTANT' QENZENE FROM MIDWAY MOBILE SOURCES
B
1623.8200 433.24
UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBCO OF CASES IS 0 041
.83"
Midway
Aliport
70th Strast
I
•439 19
-------
PeraMngRoad 40*0. It
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUOY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
SOURCE CATEGORY' AIRCRAFT ENGINES AT MIDWAY
Midway
Airport
o oo
4629 3075
4623.6200 433.24 UTMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IS I 11
-------
Pe"Nne Ro«d 4CML1*
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
LIFETIME CANCER CASES AT RECEPTOR GRID
source category: road vehicles at mioway
Midway
Airport
4623 8200 4]] 24 UIMX IN KM
TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IS 0 017
-------
Appendix B
„„„ Page B-40
April 1993
-------
Appendix B
EXHIBIT B-l
NUMBER AND TYPE OF AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
Aran. 1993
Page B*41
-------
Appendix B
April 1993 Paqe b#42
-------
Appendix B
The data used in this exhibit were obtained at the FAA Library from the FAA Aintort
Activity Statistics of Certified Route Carriers reports for the years 1981 through 1991.
Specifically the data was contained in Table 7 - Aircraft Departures Scheduled and Aircraft
Departures Performed By Type of Operation, By Aircraft Type, By Community, and By Carrier.
This source contained a listing of the air carriers and types of aircraft that used Midway Airport
between 1981 and 1991. In addition, it was possible to quantify the number of flights
(departures) attributed to Midway Airlines. This data contains only information for departures.
Two other sources of airport operations data for Chicago's Midway Airport were obtained.
The first set of data includes excerpts from Table 4 - Airport Operations at Airports With FAA-
Operated Traffic Control Towers By Region and By State and Aviation Category of the FAA Air
Traffic Activity report for fiscal years 1982 through 1991. The final source of data is the Illinois
Depart of Transportation (IDOT) Illinois Airport Inventory Report. 1992. This data contains
counts of all operations, not just departures.
Based on the data received, and telephone calls to IDOT and Mr. David Soumi, Deputy
Commissioner at Midway Airport, the following information on the Chicago Midway Airport was
obtained:
Following deregulation in 1978, Midway Airlines was formed. Midway Airlines was
based out of Midway Airport As Midway Airlines grew, the air traffic at Midway Airport
increased. Once other airlines recognized the market that Midway Airlines had discovered, they
also began to fly out of Midway Airport, increasing air traffic accordingly. This growth in air
traffic at Midway Airport went through a dip in the early 1980's as a result of the air traffic
controller strike of August 3, 1981 and the recession that affected the entire airline industry in
the early 1980's. Air traffic at Midway Airport was also significantly affected by the cancellation
of all Midway Airlines flights when they filed for Chapter 7 (bankruptcy) at midnight on
Wednesday, November 13th, 1991. At the time of Midway Airlines collapse they represented
70% of the airports traffic. Following the Midway Airlines collapse, some but not all of their
gates and. corresponding air traffic have been assumed by other airlines. Southwest Airlines alone
acquired 17 gates from Midway Airlines.
April 1993
Page B*43
-------
Appendix B
The types of aircraft that used Midway Airport between 1981 and 1991 are:
B-727-100
B-727-200
B-737-100/200
B-737-200C
B-737-300
B-737-500
BAC-111-200
BAC-111-400
BAE-146-1
BAE-146-100
BAE-146-2
BAE-146-300
BEECH 18
BH-99
C-208
CESSNA 404
CV-580
DC-9-10
DC-9-15F
DC-9-30
DC-9-40
DC-9-50
DC-9-80
F-28-4000/600
FH-227
FOKKER 100
MISCELLANEOUS
SWEAR-METRO
SWEAR-METRO I
There were several Air Carriers who used Midway Airport during the 1981 to 1991 time
period. The Air Carriers and their associated FAA codes are listed below:
2M -
Midway Express Airlines
NW -
Northwest Airlines
9N -
Trans States
QH -
Air Florida
AA -
American Airlines
QS -
Northeastern International
AP -
Aspen Airways
RC -
Republic Airlines
BN -
Braniff Airways
RU -
Britt Airways
CO -
Continental
TW -
Trans World Air
DL -
Delta Air Lines
UA -
United Air Lines
FM -
Federal Express
US -
U.S. Air
FW -
Skybus Inc.
WN -
Southwest Airlines
HP -
America West
XV -
Presidential Airways
JI
Jet Fleet
zv -
Air Midwest
ML -
Midway Airlines
zw -
Air Wisconsin
NI
American International Airways
The total number of flights at Midway Airport and the number associated with Midway
Airlines by year (obtained from Table 7 of FAA Airport Activity Statistics of Certified Route
Carriers') are depicted in the Table 1 and Figure 1, Midway Airlines and Airport Total
Departures.
April 1993
Page B-44
-------
Midway Airlines and Airport Total Departures
Departures
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
1984 1985 1986 1987
1988 1989
1982 1983
1990 1991
1981
Year
Midway Airlines Midwfy.A,"POrt
-------
Appendix B
Table 1
Year
Midway Airlines
All Airlines
1981
9352
10771
1982
12627
13713
1983
14710
16103
1984
18087
21229
1985
19067
24760
1986
22217
30565
1987
28994
44801
1988
37677
57631
1989
39777
62238
1990
42848
64465
1991
35781
53933
Total
281137
400209
The number of flights by aircraft type and year are depicted in the Table 2 and Figure 2,
Departures By Aircraft Type. Please note that several types of aircraft are grouped together
under miscellaneous because the number of departures for those aircraft types were too small to
appear on the chart
April 1993
Page B*46
-------
Appendix B
Table 2
Year
B-727s
B-737-100/200
B-737-300
Other B-737
Misc
1981
961
0
0
0
0
1982
1086
0
0
0
0
1983
1299
94
0
0
0
1984
1755
1009
0
0
283
1985
1469
5081
43
0
0
1986
1936
8746
982
0
13
1987
2375
14768
4115
0
43
1988
1524
17669
4340
400
21
1989
1152
16829
6669
444
54
1990
331
15659
6405
487
1777
1991
97
9159
4809
1393
1094
Year DC-9-I0
DC-9-30
DC-9-80
Other DC-9s
Totals
1981
8760
1050
0
0
10771
1982
6180
4145
0
2302
13713
1983
8324
5916
470
0
16103
1984
8103
8292
1787
0
21229
1985
7602
10202
363
0
24760
1986
8247
10350
162
129
30565
1987
9006
13798
460
236
44801
1988
10401
23066
89
111
57631
1989
10071
24793
1771
455
62238
1990
1607
24271
7269
6669
64465
1991
1758
25224
8498
1801
53933
The events described above regarding the fluctuations in air traffic at Midway Airport are
depicted in Figure 3, FAA and IDOT Annual Totals. This chart represents the data received from
FAA Airport Traffic Activity and Illinois Airport Inventory Report. The next figure (Figure 4),
Total Operations By Category, represents the FAA data broken out by aviation category.
Following the figures are two tables containing the data which were used to create Figures 3 and
4.
APRIL 1993
Page B*48
-------
Departures By Aircraft Type
Departures
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Year
B-727S B-737-100/200 B-737-300 DC-9-10
DC-9-30 DC-9-80 Other DC-9s Miscellaneous
-------
FAA and IDOT Annual Totals
Operations
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Year
FAA IDOT
-------
Total Operations By Category
Operations
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1989
1990
1991
1986
1987
1988
1985
1984
1983
1982
Year
Air Carriers Air Taxi General Aviation Military
-------
Chicaco Midway Air Traffic Data
Year
llin Total
llln Carrier
llln Taxi
llln Gen Av
llln Military
Local Total
Local Gen Av
Local Military
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
191898
27417
26259
134843
3379
19735
12732
7003
1983
191116
33318
32439
122302
3057
26084
20283
5801
1984
184968
40908
33712
107319
3029
24041
21988
2053
1985
189158
49809
32474
104032
2843
27350
25872
1478
1986
201338
60286
34071
104335
2646
19115
18399
716
1987
248863
83621
51981
110564
2697
8013
7742
271
1988
292140
112213
73339
103565
3023
4032
3888
144
1989
315583
124258
94210
93939
3176
458
352
106
1990
320951
133855
100445
83264
33B7
1246
1102
144
1991
301186
119931
102154
76856
2245
504
389
115
Year
FAA Total
Total Carrier
Total Taxi
Total Gen Av
Total Military
Enplanement
IDOT Total
IDOT Itln
IDOT Local
1978
60000
173000
149000
24000
1979
60098
190000
1980
191581
211000
185000
26000
1981
527896
224000
201000
23000
1982
211633
27417
26259
147575
10332
664955
213000
191000
22000
1983
217200
33318
32439
142585
8858
760367
212000
188000
24000
1984
209009
40908
33712
129307
5082
989854
213000
188000
25000
1985
216508
49809
32474
129904
4321
1244799
214000
187000
27000
1986
220453
60286
34071
122734
3362
1719872
228000
213000
15000
1987
256876
83621
51981
118306
2968
2637784
268000
260000
8000
1988
296172
112213
73339
107453
3167
3265850
304000
301000
3000
1989
316041
124258
94210
94291
3282
3598045
319000
318000
1000
1990
322197
133855
100445
84366
3531
3935966
320000
319000
1000
1991
301690
119931
102154
77245
2360
3399087
276000
275000
1000
-------
Appendix B
April 1993 Page B*52
-------
Appendix B
EXHIBIT B-2
OMS SUGGESTED EMISSION FACTORS, TOXIC EMISSION FRACTIONS, AND
VOC/TOG CORRECTION FACTOR FOR AIRCRAFT
April 1993
Page B*53
-------
Appendix B
April 1993 Page B»54
-------
** A \ UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
i as f ANN ARBOR. MICHIGAN 48105
OPTCSOF
Am AND RADIATION
FEB 1 7 1991
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Piston Engine Particulate Matter Emission Factors, Toxic
Emission Fractions, and VOC to TOG Correction Factor for
Aircraft
The purpose of this memo is to provide piston engine TOG and
particulate matter emission factors, toxic emission fractions, and
VOC to TOG correction factors for aircraft. You requested this
information in our phone conversation on February 4 with ViGYAN,
Inc., concerning work assignment number 6, contract number 68-D0-
0018, "Evaluation of Cancer Risks in Southwest Chicago Using
Polycyclic Organic Matter (POM) Potency Factors."
To estimate particulate matter emission factors for aircraft
piston engines, we recommend taking the TOG emission factors for
appropriate piston engines representative of the mix at Midway, and
multiply by 5%, which is approximately the percent of particulate
matter relative to TOG for non-catalyst LDGVs.
The only speciation profiles for aircraft available are from
the EPA VOC/PM Speciation Data System, which provide one composite
profile for commercial aircraft, one profile for military aircraft,
and one profile for general aviation aircraft. All these profiles
were based on the same data for one engine, a CFM-56 turbojet
engine, but weighted differently according to the L70 cycles
described in AP-42. These profiles were used to estimate toxic
emission fractions to be applied to TOG emission factors.
Since commercial and military aircraft fleets are dominated by
turbine engines, one set of toxic emission fractions is used for
each of these categories (Table 1) . However, since the air taxi
fleet has a piston and turbine engine component (73% piston versus
27% turbine), separate toxic fractions should be used for each
engine type within that category. To calculate toxics for air taxi
piston engine aircraft in Table 1, we used the non-catalyst LDGV
toxic fractions for baseline gasoline given in the Motor Vehicle-
Related Air Toxics Report.
FROM: Richard Cook
Technical Supporx srancn
TO:
Patricia Morris, Environmental Scientist
EPA Region 5
-------
2
Table 1. Aircraft Toxic Fractions of TOG
Commercial
Military
AT Piston
AT Turbine
Benzene
0.01S4
0.0202
0.0405
0.0179
Formaldehyde
0.1501
0.1548
0.0269
0.1414
1,3-Butadiene
0.0180
0.0189
0.0098
0.0157
Table 2 presents correction factors to be used in converting
VOC to TOG for commercial, military, AT piston, and AT turbine
aircraft. These correction factors were derived in the following
manner. First, using the TOG mass fractions (MFs) and mass per
carbon (MPC) numbers given in Attachment 1, carbon fractions (CFs)
for methane, ethane, and VOC were calculated. The formula is given
below using methane as an example:
^a»cbaa*
£>jp —
09CJHD9 Lfw i/w WE*
"PC*.**,. *PC0tbaa. MPCn
He had to make the assumption that the MPC number for VOC would
apply to aircraft emissions, even though it is derived for motor
vehicles. The following equation was then used to determine TOG
from VOC:
X Htx- - wtgr - rnvr *««crweXlfPC1BPl
" CP^ XMPC^c
The CFs and MPC numbers used to calculate the correction factors
are given in Attachment 1.
-------
3
Table 2. VOC to TOG Correction Factors for Aircraft Categories.
Commercial
Military
AT Piston
AT Turbine
Correction
Factor
1.1167
1.1147
1.1347
1.0738
I would also like to briefly address two issues that were
discussed in the February 4 conference call. First, ViGYAN
mentioned in the meeting that they had been unable to obtain an
engine type mix for military aircraft at Midway from either Midway
or Illinois Airport authorities. I suggested that, in this case,
ViGYAN use an emission factor averaged from all available military
aircraft emission factors. I discussed this matter with Rich
Wilcox, and he suggested that before doing this, ViGYAN should
contact Illinois EPA, who should have this information to complete
their SIP, or alternatively, contact the Air Force Reserve to
determine what types of military aircraft typically fly in and out
J of Midway Airport. Rich Wilcox also agreed that it would be
acceptable to use the one available turboprop particulate matter
emission factor for the turbine component of the air taxi category.
Please let me know if you need any additional information to
provide to the contractor.
Attachment
cc: Rich Wilcox
Phil Lorang
Glenn Passavant
Vasu Kilaru (MD-13)
Charles Masser (MD-62)
-------
A~tt' ch (
TOG Correction Factors for Aircraft Categories and Non-Cat LDGV
6/22/92
Compound
Mass Fraction
(TOG)
Carbon
Mass/Cart>on Fraction
Commercial Aircraft
Methane
Ethane
Gasoline VOC
0.0957
0.0086
0.8955
16.0400
15.0350
13.8758
0.0839
0.0082
0.9078
TOG COMPOSITE CORRECTION FACTOR <
1.1167
Military Aircraft
Methane
Ethane
Gasoline VOC
0.0938
0.0091
0.8971
16.0400
15.0350
13.8758
0.0822
0.0085
0.9092
TOG COMPOSITE CORRECTION FACTOR«
1.1147
General Aviation (Non-Piston Engine)
Methane
Ethane
Gasoflne VOC
0.1095
0.0092
0.8813
16.0400
154350
13.8758
0.0962
04086
0.8952
TOG COMPOSITE CORRECTION FACTOR -
1.1347
Non-Cat LDGV (Aircraft Piston Engine Surrogate)
Methane
Ethane
Gasoline VOC
0.0596
0.0091
0.9313
16X1400
15.0350
13.8758
04520
04085
0.9395
TOG COMPOSITE CORRECTION FACTOR«
14738
Page 1
-------
Appendix B
EXHIBIT B-3
ESTIMATED ANNUAL EMISSIONS
April 1993
Page B*59
-------
Appendix B
April 1993 Page B*60
-------
ANNUAL EMISSIONS OF THC FROM AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT (1990)
(Assumes De Minurns Value for Taxi/Idle Time)
Type of
Aircraft
Aircraft
Engine
Engine
LTO
Total Hydrocarbons (lb)
Operation
Name
Manufacturer
Name
Manufac
Eng
Cycles
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Climbout
Approach
1
COMMERCIAL ;BAE 146-100
BAE
Weighted Average
Not App
4 , 26
30 25
021
0 45
125
IB-737-20WCARG) IbOEING | Weighted Average
Not App . 2
95
267 83
7 88
26 41
47 43
|DC9-15F ImCDONNELL DOUGLAS 1 Weighted Average
Not App | 2
6553
23723 98
480 17
1547 14
3174 34
1DC9-30
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS (Weighted Average
Not App
2
24271
87730 95
1881 92
5686 38
12239 00
IDC9-80
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App 1 2
7269
8897 40
499 52
1959 70
4704 28
IDC9-10
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Avenge
Not App | 2
1607
5817 86
117 75
37941
778 45
IDC9-40
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS {Weighted Average
Not App ; 2
86
34711
4 68
1192
48 71
IDC9-J0
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App
2 i 30
100 19
4 17
1206
19 07
B-727-200
BOEING
Weighted Average
Not App
3 1 38
170 08
4 03
11 40
26 38
IB-737-300
BOEING
Weighted Average
Not App
2 640J
3752 06
48 39
157 13
22909
iF100-100
FCKKER
Weighted Average
Not App
2 1 1750
1753 15
176 10
217 20
393 34
IB-737-100
BOEING
Weighted Average
Not App
2 j 15659
46417J8
1233 10
3505 47
7349 74
B-727-100
BOEING
JT8D-7
P&WA I 3
47
255.23
5 17
1664
3415
B-727-100 IBOEZNG
JT8D-9
P&WA 1 3
3
4.91
013
0 40
0 85
B-727-100
BOEING
JT8D-9A
P&WA 1 3
6
9.83
0.26
0 80
1 70
B-127-100
BOEING
JT8D-7B
P&W
3
225
1221 86
24 73
79 68
163 49
B-727-100
BOEING
JT8D-7A
P&WA
3
12
65.17
U2
4.25
872
B-737-500
BOEING
CFM56-3
GE
2
128
74.98
0.97
314
4 58
B-737-500
BOEING
CFM56-3B
GE
2
127
S4.60
1.07
344
3 87
B-737-500
BOEING
CFM56-3C
GE
2
127
86.28
1.11
2.87
411
PA-42 CHEYENNE
PIPER
PT6A-41
P&WA
2
1
4.98
0 01
008
093
TOTAL
64465
180786 18
4492 69
13625 97
29233 48
1 |
1
A»TAXJ
PA-42 CHEYENNE
PIPER
PT6A-41
P&WA | 2
9221
45919.38
137.16
737 83
857519
IDHC-6/300
DEHAVULAND
PT6A-27
P&WA 1 2
4339
8350 50
0.00
000
306 57
IP1STON ENGINE
Not Applicable
Average
Not App [ 2
36663
9319.73
538.29
7574 58
6203 38
TOTAL 1
i
1
50223
63589 61
675 45
831241
1508514
! i
OJ." aviation IPA-42 CHEYENNE
PIPER
PT6A-4I
P&WA
2
1721
8570.36
25.60
137.71
160049
DHC-6/300
DEHAVILLAND
PTfiA-27
P&WA
2
810
15S8.86
0.00
ooo
5713
PISTON ENGINE
Not Applicable
Avenge
Not App
1
396S2
5039 77
29108
40960$
3354 56
TOTAL
42183
15168 99
316 68
4233 76
501218
1
MQJTAJLY
C-12A/B/C
BEECH
PT6A-41
P&WA
2
88
438.23
1.05
141
2910
UH-1
BEU,
T53-L-11D
Lye
1
1677
1599 75
0
33 86
69 88
TOTAL | 1
I
1765
2037 98
1 05
35.27
9898
NOTE: Weighted Average for each aircraft calculated by FAEED based on the approximate percentage of all
engine types used for each respective U S -operated aircraft.
Page 1
-------
ANNUAL EMISSIONS OF THC FROM AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT (1990)
(Assumes Default Value for Taxi/Idle Tune)
Type of 1 Aircraft
i
Ope ran on i Name
Aircraft
Manufacturer
Engine | Engine
Name i Manufac
u
Eng
LTO
Cycles
Total Hydrocarbons 0b)
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Gimbout
Approach
COMMERCIAL
BAE 146-100
BAE
Weighted Average
Not App
4
26
78 66
0.21
045
125
B-737-200(CARG)
BOEING
Weighted Average
Not App
2
95
69635
7 88
2641
47 43
DC9-15F
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App
2
6SS3
6168236
48017
1547 14
3174 34
(DC9-30
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App
2
24271
22810048
188192
568638
12239 00
IDC9-80
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App
2
7269
23133.25
499 52
1959 70
4704 28
IDC9-10
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App
2
1607
15126 44
117 75
37941
778 45
IDC9-40
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App
2
86
902 73
468
1192
48 71
IDC9-50
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
Weighted Average
Not App
2
30
260 49
417
12 06
19 07
IB-727-200
BOEING
Weighted Avenge
Not App
3
38
442.21
4 03
1140
26 38
iB-737-300
BOEING
Weighted Average
Not App
2
6405
9755 35
4839
15713
22909
F100-100
FOKKER
Weighted Average
Not App
2
1750
4538.20
17610
21720
393 34
B-737-100
BOEING
Weighted Average
Not App
2
15659
120685.20
1233 10
3505 47
7349 74
B-727-100 1BOEING
JT8D-7
P&WA
3
47
663 61
5 17
1664
34 15
B-727-100 I BOEING
JT8D-9
P&WA
3
3
12 78
0.13
040
0 85
B-727-100
BOEING
mMA
P&WA
3
6
25 55
0.26
080
170
B-727-100
BOEING
JT8D-7B
PAW
3
225
317683
24 73
7968
16349
B-727-100
BOEING
JT8D-7A
P&WA
3
12
16943
132
425
872
B-737-300
BOEING
CFMJ6-3
GE
2
128
19495
0.97
314
4.581
B-737-J00
BOEING
CFM56-3B
GE
2
127
141 95
1.07
344
3.
B-737-500
BOEING
CFM56-3C
GE
2
127
22433
1 11
2.87
4.11
PA-42 CHEYENNE
PIPER
PT6A-41
P&WA
2
1
12.95
001
008
093
TOTAL
64465
470044 10
4492.69
13625 97
29233 48
AIK TAXI
PA-42 CHEYENNE
PIPER
PT6A-4I
P&WA
2
9221
11939039
137.16
737.83
857529
DHC-6/300
DEHAVILLAND
PT6A-27
P&WA
2
4339
2171129
000
000
306.57
PISTON ENGINE
Not Appbcabtf
Average
Not App
2
36663
14911.57
338.29
757438
620338
TOTAL
50223
15601375
675.45
8312.41
1508524
(S) aviation
PA-42 CHEYENNE
PIPER
PT6A-41
P&WA
2
1721
22282.93
25.60
137.71
160049
DHC-6/300
DEHAVILLAND
PT6A-27
P&WA
1
S10
4053.04
0.00
0.00
5723
PISTON ENGINE
NotAppbcahle
Avenge
Not App
I
39652
8063.63
29108
409605
335436
TOTAL
42183
3439960
316.68
4233 76
501228
MUTAir
C-12A/B/C
BEECH
PT6A-4I
P&WA
2
88
56970
105
141
2910
UH-1
on i
T53-L-I ID
Lyc
1
1677
2400
0
33.86
6988
TOTAL
1765
2969 70
105
3527
9898
NOTE: Weighted Avenge for each aircraft c&lailjted by FAEED based on the approximate percentage of ill
engine types used for each icspcc&ve U S -opened aircraft
Page 2
-------
ESTIMATION OF TOXIC EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
BY PHASE OF OPERATION: 1990
(LB)
POLLUTANT
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Clunbout
Approach
Total Hydrocvbons
470044
4492
13626
29233
Volatile Organic Comp
514557
4917
14916
32001
Total Organic Gases
574606
$491
16657
35736
Benzene
11147
107
323
693
Formaldehyde
86248
824
2500
5364
U-Buudieoe
4
10343
99
300
643
NOTE: VOC, TOG, and toxics data are denvtd from the THC data.
Page 3
-------
ESTIMATION OF TOXIC EMISSIONS FROM TURBINE-ENGINE AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
BY PHASE OF OPERATION: 1990
OB)
POLLUTANT
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Climbout
Approach
Total Hydrocarbons
167438
163
876
10S39
Volatile Organic Corap
178003
173
931
11204
Total Organic Gases
191140
186
1000
12031
Benzene
3421
3
18
215
Formaldehyde
27027
26
141
1701
1,3-Butadiene
3001
3
16
189
NOTE: 1 Turtiine-engme auaaft m this table commefAn Taw as well as General Aviation operations
2. VOC, TOG, and toxics data are derived from the THC data.
Page 4
-------
ESTIMATION OF TOXIC EMISSIONS FROM PISTON-ENGINE AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
BY PHASE OF OPERATION: 1990
(LB)
POLLUTANT
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Climbout
Approach
Total Hydrocarbons
22976
829
11671
9558
Volatile Organic Comp
22170
800
11261
9223
Total Organic Gases
25156
90S
12778
10465
Benzene
1019
37
SIS
424
Formaldehyde
677
24
344
282
1,3-Butadiese
247
9
125
103
NOTE: 1 Piston-engine aircraft m this Okie consul of Air Taw as well bs General Avu&on operations
2 VOC, TOG, and toxics dm re derived from THC data.
Page 5
-------
ESTIMATION OF TOXIC EMISSIONS FROM MILITARY AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT
BY PHASE OF OPERATION: 1990
(LB)
POLLUTANT
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Climbout
Approach
tool Hydrocarbons
2970
.
35
99
Volatile Organic Comp
3281
1
39
109
Total Organic Cases
3657
1
43
122
Benzene
74
0
1
2
Formaldehyde
566
0
7
19
1,3-Butadicnc
69
0
1
2
NOTE: VOC, TOG, and toxics data are derived from the THC dm.
Page 6
-------
ANNUAL EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER FROM AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT (1990)
(Assumes Default Tune in Mode Values)
Type of
Aircraft
Aircraft
i Engine
Engine
*
LTO
Total Particulate Maner (lb)
Operation
Name
Manufacturer
Name
Manufac
Eng
Cycles
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Climbout
Approach
1
1
COMMERCIAL
DC9-50
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS
IJT8D-17
P&WA
2
30
78
2 59
572
6
Other Air Carriers
Not Applicable
(Average
Not App
1 i 1
0 68
009
036
0.34
|Other Air Camers
Not Applicable
[Average
Not App
2
64077
43316 05
7802 48
2025918
19504 18
(Other Air Carriers
Not Applicable
1 Average
Not App
1
33.
335 63
6046
156 98
151 13
[Other Air Carriers
Not Applicable
lAverage
Not App
4
26
35 15
6 33
1644
1583
TOTAL 1
, i
1 64465
43695 31
787] 95
20438 68
19677 4!
i
i
¦MR TAXI
All Turtine Aircraft
Not AppftcaN*
jTPE 331-3 IGA
2
13560
3525 6
180 8
678
12204
GEN AVIATION
All Turtiine Aircraft
Not Applicant
TPE 331-3
GA
1
2531
329 03
16 87
63.28
1139
BVAT
All Piston Aircraft
Not Applicable
|Not App
Not App | -
76315
1257 8
45 4
<389
52325
TOTAL
!
!
92406
5112 43
243 07
1380 18
1857 55
, |
SOLITARY
C-I2A/B/C
BEECH
tTPE 331-3
GA
2
88
22 88
0.94
088
182
Page 7
-------
ANNUAL EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER FROM AIRCRAFT AT MIDWAY AIRPORT (1990)
(Assumes De Minimis Tune m Mode Values)
Type of
Openaon
Aircraft
Name
Aircraft
Manufacturer
Engine j Engine
Name | Manufac
» | LTO
Erg | Cycles
Total Particulate Matter (It)
Taxi/Idle
Takeoff
Climbout
Approach
1
commercial
DC9-50
MCDONNELL DOUGLAS I/T8D-17
P4WA
2
30
3
2 59
5.72
6
Other Air Carriers
Not Applicable
Average
Not App
1
1
026
009
0J6
0 34
Other Air Carriers
Not Applicable
Average
Not App
2
64077
16660 02
780248
20259 18
19504 18
Other Air Camen
Not Applicable
Average INotApp
3 | 331
129 09
6046
156 98
151 13
Other Air Camen
Not Applicable
Average
Not App
4 j 26
13 52
633
1644
15 83
TOTAL
i 64465
16805 89
7871 95
20438 68
19677 48
i
URTaXI
All Turbine Aircraft
Net Applicable
TPE 331-3
GA
2
13360
3097 61
1808
678
1220 4
SEN AVIATION
All Turbine Aircraft
Not Applicable
TPE 331-3
GA
1
2531
126 5$
16 87
63J8
1139
SA/AT
All Piston Aircraft
Not Applicable
Not App
Not App
-
76315
786 09
45.4
6389
523.25
TOTAL
92406
4010.25
243 07
1380.18
1857 55
4UTAIV
C-12A/B/C
BEECH
TPE 331-3
GA
2
88
8.8
094
0 88
282
Nott: DeMmiais values we applicable oaly m taxi/idle mode
Page 6
-------
Appendix B
EXHIBIT B-4
SAMPLE CALCULATION OF EMISSIONS AT EMISSION GRIDS
April 1993
Page 8*69
-------
Appendix B
April 1993 Page B-70
-------
CALCULATED BENZENE EMISSIONS AT EMISSION GRIDS
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT (Tug/Idle Out)
1 1 1
1
Runwiv 31 Runwiv 4
TOTAL
BENZENE
Pitt 1
Path 2
Path 1
Path 2
A/C-FT
(LB1
LB/MFT
s Aircraft
24175
24174
8058
8058
Disunce
4400
3100
6350
5350
A/c-ft
I 06E+O8
S I9E-07
5 12E-07
4 31E-07
2 S>3E^08
8145 88
27 85
Runway 31
Runwav 4
PUh 1
Path 2
Puh 1
Pith 2
GRID
Disanct
Benzene
Duuncc
Benzene
GRID
Duunce
Benzene
Distance
Benzene
BS
600
403 94
B5
500
112.20
B4
400
269 29
B4
400
89 76
C5
600
403 92
C5
500
112 20
C4
1100
740 55
900
605 St
C4
1550
34 7 82
1350
302 94
D5
800
538 59
1200
807 84
C3
250
56 10
250
56 10
D4
600
403 94
600
403 92
D3
1200
269 28
1250
280 50
E5
900
605 91
500
336 60
D2
1100
246 84
250
56 10
D1
750
168 30
E2
1200
269 28
El
600
134 64
550
123 42
Page 1
-------
CALCULATED BENZENE EMISSIONS AT EMISSION GRIDS
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT (Tixi/ldlc In)
l i i
I
Runwiv 31 Runw*v 4
TOTAL
ben:
LENE
PUli 1
Pith 2
Path 1
Puh2
A/c-rr
(LB)
LB/MFT
# AtrertA
24175
24174
80S!
8058
6125
4375
4100
2525
A/e-ft
1 48E-08
106E-08
3 30E+07
Z03E+07
3 07E-KK
3001 12
977
Runwiv 31
Rmn
»y4
P
ttta 1
Ptti2
Pi
th 1
Pi
nh2
GRID
Dutince
Benzene
Distance
Benzene
GRID
Distance
Benzene
Dutisce
Benzene
A3
1200
283 39
A4
1350
106 27
A3
1075
253 87
B3
700
55 10
A4
1200
283 39
B4
1450
1)4 14
750
59 04
82
SO
11 81
B5
600
47 23
B3
700
165 31
C4
1175
9249
84
u:o
318 81
CS
<00
47.23
BS
550
129 89
a
14S0
342 42
a
1075
253 86
C4
1300
306 99
C3
550
129 88
Page 2
-------
CALCULATED BENZENE EMISSIONS AT EMISSION GRIDS
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT (Takeoff!
1
1
Runwiv 31
Runwiv 4
TOTAL
BENZ1
£NE
Path 1
Path 2
Pltil 1
Path 2
A/C-FT
(LB)
LB.'MFT
U AircnA
24175
24174
8058
8058
Distance
4346
3429
3673
4298
A/c-fi
1 05E-08
8 29E-07
2 9it*01
3 46E+07
2 52E+08
107 00
042
Runwiv 31
Run?
«iv4
Path 1
Path 2
Pa
lh 1
Pi
ith 2
GRID
Distinct
Benzene
Distance
Benzene
GRID
Distance
Benzene
Distance
Benzene
B2
100
8 21
B3
1400
479
B3
1379
14 14
B4
100
034
800
2 74
C2
44
CI
1S00
5 13
1100
3 76
a
1400
14 36
a
36
0 12
C4
1500
15 39
C4
450
1 54
D3
100
103
DI
600
2 05
D4
1400
14 36
D2
37
0 13
1100
3 76
Di
550
564
D3
400
137
E4
too
103
El
48
0 16
E5
500
5 13
E2
400
1 37
Page 3
-------
CALCULATED BENZENE EMISSIONS AT EMISSION GRIDS
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT (ChmbouQ
Runwav 31 Runwiv 4
TOTAL
BENZENE
Path I
Path 2
Pith 1
Patk2
A/C-FT
(LB)
LB/MFT
-------
CALCULATED BENZENE EMISSIONS AT EMISSION GRIDS
COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT fAppronh)
R unwiv 31 Runwav 4
TOTAL
BENZENE
Pith 1
Pub 2
Pub 1
Pub 2
A^C-FT
(LB)
LB/MFT
» Aircraft
2-4175
24174
8058
BOSS
Disuncc
3829
4746
3873
4*48
A/c-ft
9 26E*07
1 15E-KJ8
3 12E*07
3 91E-07
2 78E-08
693 00
2 50
Runwiv 31
Runway 4
Pith I
Pwh2
PtUl 1
Pub 2
GRID
Diiunce
Benzene
Disunce
Benzene
GRID
Distinct
Benzene
Distinct
Benzene
B2
200
12 07
B3
(00
1609
B3
625
mn
84
300
604
a
100
604
a
1500
3018
a
140
>45
1400
84 50
a
1100
2213
C4
1475
89 03
C4
400
8 0S
D3
146
8 81
D1
1450
2917
D4
139
(39
1400
84 50
D2
73
1 47
1100
22 13
D5
1450
87 32
D3
498
1002
E4
100
6 04
El
50
1 01
1)00
2213
E5
1400
84 50
E2
350
704
Page 5
-------
Appendix B
- Intentionally left blank
April 1993
Page B*76
-------
Appendix C
APPENDIX C
REVISED ROAD VEHICLE EMISSIONS INVENTORY
April 1993
Page C*1
-------
Appendix C
Page C»2
April 1993
-------
Appendix C
C.1 INTRODUCTION
This appendix describes the data sources and technical approaches used to revise the
motor vehicle emissions inventory for the Southwest Chicago Cancer Risk Assessment Study.
The revised inventory was used as the input to Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM) air
dispersion modeling runs to predict the consequent annual concentrations at the designated
receptors. Based on the number of people exposed to the concentrations at each receptor, annual
cancer cases caused by motor vehicle emissions in the study area could be estimated and
evaluated.
C2 PRIMARY DATA SOURCE
The required vehicular emissions related data, such as volatile organic compound (VOC)
emission factors by speed, vehicle miles travelled (VMT), and VMT mix by vehicle, were
provided by the Division of Air Pollution of IEPA for individual traffic links in each traffic zone.
The EEPA data base, developed by IEPA using MOBELE4.1 to support its 1990 Illinois Baseline
Emissions Inventory preparation initiative, covers all of Cook County and accounts for both free
speed and congested speed daily travel scenarios. Emission factors contained in the IEPA daia
also consider the Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) credit program and are specific for summer 1990.
Exhibit C-l contains an EEPA memorandum describing the emissions data and recommended
approach to calculate motor vehicle emissions in Cook County.
The vehicle fleet in the IEPA data base consists of the following vehicle types which are
in agreement with the MOBILE4.1 definition:
Light Duty Gasoline Vehicle (LDGV) - primarily gasoline-fueled passenger cars
Light Duty Gasoline Track (LDGT1) - small light gasoline-fueled trucks less than
6,500 lbs
Light Duty Gasoline Truck (LDGT2) - light gasoline-fueled trucks between 6,500
and 8,500 lbs
Heavy Duty Gasoline Truck (HDGV) - gasoline-fueled trucks greater than 8,500
lbs
Light Duty Diesel Vehicle (LDDV) - diesel-fueled cars
April 1993
Page C*3
-------
Appendix C
• Light Duty Diesel Truck (LDDV) - light diesej-fueled trucks less than 8,500 lbs
• Heavy Duty Diesel Truck (HDDV) - diesel-fueled trucks greater than 8,500 lbs
• Motorcycle (MC)
In the IEPA data base, VOC emission factors were broken down by emission phase,
namely exhaust, evaporative, running loss, and resting loss. Emission factors for refueling loss
and hot stabilized idling are not included in the IEPA data base and hence not considered in the
study. In addition, VOC emission factors in the IEPA data base have been corrected for gasohol
usage by gasoline-fueled vehicles.
The average daily VMT in the IEPA data base was chosen to estimate the annual Cook
County motor vehicle emissions even though the daily VMT based on typical summer weekdays
were also provided by IEPA. The reason for this selection is to avoid further over-estimation
of vehicular emissions in Cook County using the IEPA data. The IEPA emission factors are
specific for summer 1990 and usually have higher numbers (approximately 9% to 10%) than
emission factors generated based on travelling scenarios in non-summer seasons.
Information on road type in the IEPA data base also served an important role in
preparation for the emissions inventory. Based on the road type information associated with each
link, arterial emissions and freeway emissions could be separated for appropriate estimates. A
traffic link that is not classified as a rural interstate (Road Type=01), an urban interstate (Road
Type=ll), or an urban expressway/freeway (Road Type=l2) is grouped under the arterial
category to differentiate from the freeway category.
VOC emissions under both the congested speed scenario and the free speed scenario were
computed. As recommended by IEPA, the weighted VOC emissions (25% of emissions under
the free speed scenario and 75% under the congested speed scenario) were used to present the
1990 VOC vehicular emissions from the selected area coverage in Cook County.
C3 ADJUSTED GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE IN COOK COUNTY
The Cook County motor vehicle inventory previously used in the Southwest Chicago
Study covers only the southern half of the county (Figure C-l). To be consistent with this
geographic consideration, a subset of IEPA data was used to extract the data in traffic zones
which approximately encompass the same geographic coverage (Figure C-2). By so doing, the
following traffic zones (343 zones in total) were chosen to represent the geographic domain of
the Cook County motor vehicle emission sources:
April 1993
Page C*4
-------
Appendix C
• Zones 1 to 30
• Zones 86 to 456
• Zones 515, 520 and 521
• Zones 586 to 625
• Zones 628 and 629
• Zones 634 to 645
• Zones 901 to 903
While most of the traffic zones encompass a 1.6 km by 1.6 km square each, 31 of the
selected zones cover a 3.2 km by 3.2 km square each. These emission squares representing
individual traffic zones consist of the Cook County motor vehicle emission gnd network,
replacing the previous network shown in Figure C-l, to be used in air dispersion modeling.
C.4 EMISSIONS INVENTORY PREPARATION
C.4.1 VOC CONVERSION TO TOG
The EEPA data base contains only the VOC emission rates and therefore requires
conversion to total organic gases (TOG) emission rates to meet the study requirement Since
methane and ethane are negligible in evaporative emissions, VOC evaporative emissions are
equivalent to TOG evaporative emissions. However, methane and ethane must be accounted for
in development of TOG exhaust emissions using VOC exhaust emissions. The correction factors
used to convert VOC exhaust emissions into TOG exhaust emissions are as follows:
Vehicle Type Correction Factor
Light Duty Gasoline-Fueled Vehicle (LDGV, MQ 1.1
Light Duty Gasoline-Fueled Truck (LDGT1. LDGT2) 1.085
Heavy Duty Gasoline-Fueled Vehicle (HDGV) 1.09
Light Duty Diesel-Fueled Vehicle (LDDV, LDDT) 1.02
Heavy Duty Diesel-Fueled Vehicle (HDDV) 1.04
April 1993
Page C*5
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO study
PREVIOUS COOK COUNTY MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION GRID DOMAIN
(4630 0 456 0)
[4590 0 434 0)
A EACH UNIT SQUARE REPRESENTS A 2 KM X 2 KM AREA
6 11 EMISSION ZONES COMPRISE 4 ADJACENT UNIT SQUARES EACH
C COORDINATES IN (UTM NORTHING, UTM EASTING)
FIGURE C.l
Page C*6
-------
SOUTHWEST CHICAGO STUDY
ADJUSTED COOK COUNTY MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION GRID DOMAIN
(4629 4 156 0]
(4591 D 424 0)
A EACH UNIT SQUARE REPRESENTS A 1 6 KM X 1 6 KM AREA
B 31 EMISSION ZONES COMPRISE 4 ADJACENT UNIT SQUARES EACH
C COORDINATES IN CUTM NORTH INS, UTW EASTING)
FIGURE C.2
Page C»7
-------
Appendix C
These correction factors were developed by averaging the ratios of TOG and VOC exhaust
emission factors generated by a number of independent MOBILE4.1 runs with different average
speeds as input.
C.4.2 DIESEL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
OMS recommends the use of the following emission factors to derive the diesel
particulate emissions.
Vehicle Type Emission Factor fg/mile)
Light Duty Diesel-Fueled Vehicle (LDDV) 0.321
Light Duty Diesel-Fueled Truck (LDDT) 0 338
Heavy Duty Diesel-Fueled Vehicle (HDDV) 1 301
The product of the diesel emission factor and its correspondent diesel VMT (total VMT
x VMT mix of a given diesel vehicle type) is the diesel particulate emission amount of the given
diesel vehicle type.
C.4.3 GASOLINE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
Multiplying TOG exhaust emission amounts by 0.011 for all gasoline vehicle types
enables us to calculate gasoline particulate emissions. This is also an OMS recommended
approach.
C.4.4 TOXIC EMISSIONS
Also of great interest in the study are three toxic air pollutants: benzene, 1,3-butadiene,
and formaldehyde. OMS suggested multiplying the TOG emission factor of each emission phase
of each vehicle type by the following toxic fractions for 1990 to calculate toxic emission factors.
April 1993
Page C»8
-------
Appendix C
1990 Toxic/TOG Emission Fractions Table
Benzene
LDGV
LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV
LDDV
LDDT
HDDV
MC
Exhaust
0037
0 040
0.041
0.042
0 023
0 023
0010
0.042
Evaporative
0.023
0020
0 009
0.011
0012
Refueling Loss
0.01
001
0.01
001
Running Loss
0.01
001
001
0.01
Resting Loss
0.01
001
001
0 01
0.01
1.3-Butadtene
LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV LDDV LDDT HDDV MC
Exhaust 0 007 0 008 0.009 0.010 0 010 0 010 0.016 0 011
Formaldehyde
LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV LDDV LDDT HDDV MC
Exhaust 0.015 0.016 0.021 0.029 0.039 0.039 0.028 0.026
Emissions attributed to vehicle refueling loss are set to be zero in the 1990 Illinois
Baseline Emissions Inventory. Benzene/TOG emission fractions for the refueling loss phase are
listed here for reference and are not applied to the study. Exhibit C-2 contains the memorandum
from OMS describing the recommended approaches in estimating required emission factors and
sources of information.
C.5 REVISED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS INVENTORY
The annual emission amounts by pollutant were first computed at the traffic link level.
We then summed up the emission amounts by pollutant from all links in the traffic zone to
calculate the emissions inventory of each zone, which will be used as the emission grid for air
dispersion modeling. However, only the overall emission estimates summarizing emissions from
the selected 343 traffic zones are presented in the report. Following the convention established
in the EPA Region 5 Southeast Chicago Emissions Inventory project (last updated in 1989), a
breakdown table presenting emissions by freeway exhaust, arterial exhaust, and evaporative
April 1993
Page C*9
-------
Appendix C
{including running loss and resting loss) emission is first used to describe the results. It should
be noted that these estimates are highly uncertain.
1990 Cook County Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory
(in ton/yr)
Pollutant Freewav Exhaust Arterial Exhaust Evaporative
TOG
3,672.66
8,729.21
14,31632
Gasoline Particulate
30.02
86.33
n/a
Diesel Paniculate
809.51
528.19
n/a
Benzene
112 76
304 80
241.02
1,3-Butadiene
35.22
71.25
n/a
Formaldehyde
71.06
149 55
n/a
Cook County Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory
(In ton/yr)
Pollutant 1990 Annual Emission Previous Annual Emission
TOG
26,718.19
n/a
Gasoline Paniculate
116.35
n/a
Diesel Particulate
1337.70
n/a
Benzene
658.58
777.58
1,3-Butadiene
106.47
69.89
Formaldehyde
220.61
337.17
C6 OTHER TOXIC AIR EMISSIONS
Two other carcinogens were listed in the previous Cook County motor vehicle emissions
inventory. Annual vehicular emissions of these two pollutants were also revisited to reflect the
1990 emission scenario.
Cook Comity Motor Vehlde Emissions Inventory
(in ton/yr)
Pollutant 1990 Annual En»*
-------
Appendix C
Asbestos emissions and cadmium emissions were derived based on the technical report
entitled Air Toxic Emissions from Motor Vehicles by Penny Carey (September 1987). Emission
factors used are 4 ug/mile and 1.9 ug/mile for asbestos and cadmium respectively. The VMT
of the entire vehicle fleet was considered for asbestos emissions while only the VMT of the light
duty vehicle class (including both gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles, as well as MC) was used
to estimate cadmium emissions.
C.7 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS FROM OTHER COUNTIES
No major revisions to annual vehicular emissions from pans of Du Page County, IL, Will
County, IL, and Lake County, IN were undertaken since no current data are readily accessible.
Gasoline particulate emissions and diesel particulate emissions, which were absent in the previous
emissions inventory for these three counties, were estimated to replace POM emissions. The
estimated paniculate emissions attributed to motor vehicles in these three counties were derived
by multiplying existing POM estimates in each county by the respective ratio of diesel or
gasoline particulate emissions and revised POM emissions in Cook County. The following three
tables list the estimated emissions for the pollutants of interest by county:
1990 Da Page County Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory
(in ton/yr)
Pollutant
Freeway Exhaust Arterial Exhaust*
Gasoline Particulate
Diesel Particulate
Benzene'
1,3-Butadiene"
Formaldehyde"
Asbestos"
Cadmium"
0.55
14.70
1.91
0.21
1.38
0.0003
0.0001
6.42
39.28
23.78
2.08
9.5B
0.001
0.0005
Includes emissions from evaporative emissions
No changes in emission amounts
April 1993
Page C*11
-------
Appendix C
1990 WO! County Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory
(in ton/yr)
Pollutant Freeway Exhaust Arterial Exhaust*
Gasoline Particulate 1-52 8.70
Diesel Particulate 41 06 53.20
Benzene6 5.35 32.20
1,3-Buudieneb 0.60 2.82
Formaldehyde' 3.86 12.98
Asbestos" 0.0007 0 0013
Cadmium" 0.0003 0.0006
• Includes emissions from evaporative emissions
b No changes in emission amounts
1990 Lake County Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory
(in ton/yr)
Pollutant
Freeway Exhaust
Arterial Exhaust*
Gasoline Particulate
Diesel Particulate
Benzene"
1,3-Butadiene"
Formaldehyde'
Asbestos"
Cadmium"
2.18
58.73
7.66
0.85
5.53
0.001
0.0005
12.82
78.41
47.47
4.16
19.14
0.0019
0.0009
* Includes emissions from evaporanve emissions
k No changes in emission amounts
C.8 ASSOCIATED UNIT RISK FACTORS
Cancer risks caused by toxic air pollution of asbestos and cadmium in the Cook County
motor vehicle inventory will be revisited using the revised annual emissions in the report
Furthermore, POM emissions from motor vehicles in the study area would not be inventoried in
the study. Instead, diesel particulate emissions and gasoline particulate emissions, which are
considered to include POM, were assessed based on the available unit risk factors. The 70-year
lifetime unit cancer risk factors (in (ug/m3)*1) used in the study were extracted from the report
ParHnnpenic Risks of PolvcyHif Orpanic Matter (POM) from Selected Emission Sources by Dr.
Lewtas, and the paper Update On U.S. Environmental Protection Aeencv Activities in the
Accosct^nt nf Mobile Source Air Toxics bv W. Pepelko and C. Ris (1992), and are listed as follows:
April 1993
Page CO 2
-------
Appendix C
Pollutant
Unit Risk Factor
Comment
Gasoline Particulate
5 1 x 1(T
Using the nsk factor for catalyst-
equipped vehicles since the
majority of the gasoline-fueled
vehicles in the 1990 fleet were
catalyst-equipped
Diesel Paniculate
1 7 x 1CT:
For the enure diesel-fueled fleet
C.9 MISCELLANEOUS
There are several issues related to this emissions inventory preparation task. We briefly
describe them as follows:
a. VOC emission factors data for 1990 generated using the newly released MOBILESa were
provided by IEPA in February 1993. However, these emission factors were not yet
corrected for gasohol usage and therefore are not utilized in the study. MOBILE5a VOC
emission factors would be greater than those generated using MOBILE4.1.
b. Two revised splits, one by arterial VMT distribution and another by freeway VMT
distribution, were implemented for the required air dispersion modeling using
Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM). One CDM modeling run for each split was
required for estimating concentrations, attributed to vehicular air pollution from Cook
County, at individual receptor grids. Both splits have the same emission grid network
which uses each selected traffic zone as an emission source square. The unit emission
amount (i.e., 1,000 metric ton/yr) was portioned among all the emission source squares
based on either arterial VMT or freeway VMT in each square (or traffic zone). Once the
concentration profiles at the receptor grid network (referred to as unit concentration) had
been estimated for both VMT splits using the unit emission amount, multiplying the unit
concentration by actual annual emission estimates would yield the estimated annual
concentrations of individual pollutants.
c. To follow the same approach utilized in the Southeast Chicago Study, both the arterial
exhaust emissions and the evaporative emissions were multiplied by the unit concentration
profile generated using the arterial VMT split to estimate the annual concentrations. The
unit concentration profile modeled by CDM for the freeway VMT split was used to
predict annual concentrations generated by the freeway exhaust emissions only.
April 1993
Page C«13
-------
Appendix C
..oa* Page CO4
April 1993
-------
Appendix C
EXHIBIT C-l
IEPA DATA BASE DESCRIPTION AND RECOMMENDED APPROACH
April 1993
Page C*1S
-------
APPENDIX C
Arm. 1993 PA0E 0,16
-------
State of Illinois
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Maiy A. Cade, Director 2200 Churchill Road, Springfield, IL 62794-9276
217/524-4343
December 17, 1992
Ms. Patricia Morris
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region V
77 West Jackson Boulevard
Chicago, Illinois 60604-3590
Dear Ms. Morris:
You asked for emissions information from motor vehicles in certain traffic
zones in central Cook County. I am sending you extracts from our computer
files, from which you can determine the various hydrocarbon component
emissions in the zones you wish.
Enclosed is a 3.5 inch floppy disk containing three databases (* .DBF)
files and two databases index (*.CDX) files which I used in my emissions
calculations with the Foxpro 2 database program:
(1) COOKNET.DBF, containing link-based information for all links in Cook
County; zone data dare available for each link.
(2) & (3) CHIJLXIM.DBF and its index file CHIJLXIH.CDX, containing M0BILE4.1
emission rates in grams/mile for various speeds for the case where no
vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) effects are to be calculated.
(4) & (5) CHIJLIMC.DBF and its index file CHIJLXIH.CDX, containing MOBILE*.1
I/M emission credits in grams/mile for various speeds for the case where
the effects of IEPA's I/M program are to be taken into account.
I will be recalculating the emission rate files CHIJLXIM and CHIJLIMC
in the near future using the recently-released M0BILE5. I'll send you
updates of those files some time in January. The *.DBF files may be used
as they are, since they are compatible 1n Foxpro 2.0 and in DBase. The
*.CDX files are peculiar to Foxpro; similar index files are used in DBase.
The attached sheet will give the structure of the files listed above,
as well as some advice about how to calculate emissions with them. I
trust this information will meet your needs. If you need further
information or help, call me at (217)524-4619.
Yours sincepeTy>^y
Samuel S. Long 0
Air Quality Planning Section
Division of Air Pollution Control
SSL:bj/62-58
Enclosures
Eesivtrj)
r •-> o , «cc? —
• — -
REGULATION DEVELOPMENT 8RANGH
U.S. EPA, REGION 35
cc: Dick Forbes
fritted os teyclcrf taper
-------
"990 ON-i-IGKWAY MOBILE SOURCE INFORMATION FOR °AT VORRIS
*) COOKNET.DBF contains CATS transportation moce'i cutDut for "990 for
Cook County only. These same data usea in tie calcu'ation of trie 1990
Chicago area on-mgnwav noDile-source emissions lr.vento-v.
COOKNET.DBF contains "793 recoras in 21 fields. as follows:
Field Field Name Type Wiath Decimals Notes
•
LINKID
C
10
Unique identifier of each link
2.
COUNTY
c
3
"031" = Cook County
3.
ZONE
N
5
Your traffic Zone numoer
4.
ROADTYPE
C
2
See table below for decode
5.
FREESPEED
N
4.
1
"Free" speed in mpn
6.
CONGSPEED
\
A
1
"Congested" speed in mDh
7.
POLLUTANT
c
d
BlanK; see taole below.
3.
ADVMT
N
£
Average Daily VMT on the link
9.
SUMMERVMT
N
8
Avg. Summer Weekday VMT on link
¦ 0.
CARIMFRAC
N
e
<¦»
o
Fraction of I/M cars cn "ink
11.
LDTIMFRAC
N
3
3
Fraction of I/M "gt "rucks
2.
HDVIMFRAC
\
5
o
Fract-on of I/M nvy trucks
13.
IMPCT
M
4
*
Percent I/M vehicles on "ink
14.
LDGVMIX
N
5
VMT mix of LDGVs on link
15.
LDGT1MIX
M
5
3
VMT mix of lDGT's on linn
16.
LDGT2MIX
N
5
3
VMT mix of LDGT2s on linK
17.
HDGVMIX
N
5
3
VMT mix of HDGVs on linK
18
LDDVMIX
N
5
3
VMT mix of LDDVs on onk
19.
LDDTMIX
N
5
3
VMT mix of LDDTs on linK
20.
HDDVMIX
N
5
o
VMT mix of HDDVs on "nnK
21.
MCMIX
N
5
3
VMT mix of motorcycles on link.
(2) CHIJLXIM.DBF and CFIJLIMC.DBF are files of Chicago-area emission
rates in grams per mle ana I/M crecits with the same units as emission
rates, -esDectiveiy, xor soeeas from 1 to 65 mDn for July i99i, in ac-
coraance with USEPA inventory guicance.
CHIJLXIM.D3F and CHIJLIMC.DBF both nave 520 aaia records :r. 16 fields,
as follows:
-------
i elc
F->e",d Name
~vPe
Width
Dec *.ma "is
¦Motes
i •
SPEED
\
4
•
Between * anc 65 mon
<_ «
POLLUTANT
w
<1
See taole oelow for cecoce
z.
_DGV x
N
S
3
No-c'ho" emission rate for _DGV
J5GT1 x
M
d
No-g'nol emission <-ate for _DGT'
5.
JDGT2 x
M
3
3
No-g'hol emission rate for LDGT2
6.
LDGT x
V
3
C
No-g'hol emission -ate for OGT
; ,
HDGV x
N
8
A
o
No-g'hoi emission rate for HDGV
£.
_DGV_G
N
3
3
LDGV E.R. corrected -'or gasohol
9.
LDGT1 G
N
8
o
LDGT1 E.R. correctea for gasono
10.
LDGT2 G
N
8
3
LDGT2 E.R. correctea _*or gasonol
11.
HDGV G
N
fi
G
3
HDGV E.R. corrected for gasohol
12.
lDDV
N
3
3
LDDV emission rate
13.
LDDT
W
8
O
LDDT emission rate
14.
HDDV
Nl
a
3
HDDV emission rate
-.5.
MC
V
8
3
Motorcycle emission rate
• 6.
AVER <
Ni
3
3
All-Venicle E.R.. default VMT mix
le'iGS narKed wit*- an < are not usea to calculate euissions.
(3) VEHICLE TYPES
LDGV = "hgnt-outy gasoline vemcles, "cars"
LDGT"! = lignt-auty gasoline trucks < 6500 *b, "small light trucks"
LDGT2 = light-duty casoline trucks, 6500-8500 1c. ""ignt trucks"
LDGT = LDGT1 + LDGT2: LDG7 E.R is weigntea average of the E.a.s
HDGV = heavy-duty gasoline trucks > 8500 lb
LDDV = light-duty ciesel vehicles, "diesel cars"
LDDT = light-cuty ciesel trucKs < 8500 lb. '"Hgnt aiesel trucxs"
HDDV = neavy-auty ciese". vemcles > 8500 lo. "neavy diesels",
incluair.c t-ucks and ouses
MC = note-cycles
(*) GASOHOL uSAGE -n Chicago area -s est-mateo at 30* in -.990. Emis-
sion rates in fielcs with "j3" m their field names have been corrected
for gasonol use by USEPA-apDroveo metnoas. Naturally diesel emission
rates are not affectea by gasohol; nor -.s any correct-on made -n the
rates for motorcycles. Do NOT use the no-gasohol emission rates to
compute emissions for any pollutant or component..
-------
'5) SOLJJTANTS in trie CHIJ;_XIM ana CHIJLIMC files are as ^omows:
VOC Volatile organic comDounas without metnane/etnane
X Exnaust VOC emissions
V Evaporative VOC emissions
R Refueling loss vx emissions 'set to zero)
T Running loss VOC emissions
S Resting Loss VOC emissions
CO Caroon monoxide emissions
NOx Oxices of nitrogen emissions.
VOC = XtV + R-tT + S
X. V, R, T, and S are often referred to as "components" cf the
nydrocarDon emissions. X, V, 7, anc S coulc be changed to EXH, EVAP,
RNNG, and RSTG if desired.
The POLLUTANT field m the COOKNET file would have one of these seven
pollutant codes in it 'not Rl, depending on wmch type of emissions you
are trying to calculate, "he networK and emission rate files are
"linked" througn this van able.
(6) ROADTYPES are as follows:
01
04
06
07
08
09
Rural Interstate
Rural Other Principal Artenals (OPA)
Rural Minor Artenals
Rural Major Collectors
Rural Minor Collectors
Rural Local Roads
11
12
14.
16
15
19
Urban Interstate
Urban Other Expwys/Freewys
Urban CPA
Urban Minor Artenals
Jrban Minor Collectors
Urban Local streets
-------
7' v'EuICLE MI1_E5 "RAVELED or VMT ~ s calculatec from CATS transporta-
tion moael output. ~wo vMTs are available: Average 3aily WT ¦iOVMT1,
ana Average Summer weexday VMT (ASWVMT), wnicn :s aoout 9%-"0* higner
tnan ADVMT, and calculated from factors supplied oy IXT. :=?A can
supp'v cor-ection "'actors "or etner montns c- seasons c~ tne year as
•x rsauirea. cut -cTe mat emission rates are specific ~o- summer
* S90..
'8) Z^EE SPEED ana CONGESTED SPEED by linn are outputs from the trans-
portation moael. The free s-oeed represents more or less the soeea limit
on the lintc, ".e., the speed jnder free-flow conaitions, sucn as occur
typically at mght. "he congested speed represents the speed unaer con-
gestea conditions, such as occur during rusn hours curing the aay. Free
soeea and congested speed may be the same, as on some roacs with little
traffic, but usually the congestea soeed is lower than the free sceed,
sometimes dramatically so. IE3A estimates that approximately 75% of the
VMT anc hence of the emissions occur under "congestea" conaif.cns. and
on*y 25X under "free speed" conditions. Therefore to get accurate re-
sults vou calculate emissions unaer free and congestea conditions and
take a weignted average, thus: Suppose "congested" emissions are 200
tons/day ana "free-speea" emissions are 160 tons/day. Average emissions
are thus (75%*200 - 2556*160)= (150 t AC) = 190 tons/day.
(9) VMT mix by "ink is founo m the COOKNET f*le and :s tne percent of
VMT on the link generated by each of the eignt vehicle types. These VMT
mixes were ca'culateo oy IEPA from transportation mocel cata that CATS
sent, ana are the same as those usea in the "90 inventory. They are not
the same as the cefault VMT mix that the MOBILE .node! generates.
(10) I/M PERCENTAGES by "'•ink are found in the COOKNET file. They
-eoresent tne percent of cars (LDGVsh lignt gasoline trucxs (JXsTt and
LDGTC), and heavy casoline trucks (KDGV) that are subject to I/M out of
tie total of eacn venicle type.
fl'l CALCULATION OF EMISSIONS: ror a given "intc, emissions ""cm LDGVs
are calculated as follows:
No-I/M Car emissions = VMT « vmt Mix for cars « Emission Rate for
cars at the link soeed
"~ie reauction in emissions cn a link due to I/M is similarly calculated:
I/M 'eauctions = VMT • VMT mix • Emission Credits for cars at link
speed * percent of I/M cars on "'m*
'ota". car emissions = no-I/m car emissions ir.inus I/M reductions.
-------
Similar calculations are aone for eacn vemcle tyoe ana ~or eacn "-nK: a
sataoase is orooaoly more convenient *or this than & spreadsheet. The
-esu'iting emissions *n grams (emission rates are -n grams/mile) are
written to a thi--d. "results", file, two for each POLLUTANT: one for
"free soeea" conditions 'IEPA's name for -t was F3EEEMIS.DBF'- ana one
for "congestea soeea" conditions (CONGEMIS.DBF). The file structure xor
tie "emissions" results f-1e woula oe as follows:
Field
Field Name
Type
Width Decimals
Notes
1.
LINKID
C
¦0
Same as LINKID elsewnere
2.
COUNTY
C
3
"031" = Cook
3.
ROADTYPE
c
2
Optional
A.
ZONE
N
A
Optional but you'll want it
5.
LDGV VOC
N
8
link VX emissions from LDGVs
6.
LDGT1 VOC
N
8
link VX emissions from LDGT1
7.
LDGT2_VOC
N
8
linK VOC emissions from LDGT2
3.
HDGV VOC
N
8
link VX emissions from HDGV
9.
LDDV VX
N
8
link VX emissions from LDDV
10.
LDDT_V0C
N
8
link VX emissions f-cm lDDT
11.
HDOV_VOC
N
3
link VX emissions from HDDV
*2.
MC_V0C
N
8
link VX emissions from MC
The field names *or the emission fields are the vehicle type + the
ooT.utant. IEPA's original CONGEMIS ana FREEEMIS files naa 16 further
fields for LDGV_CO through MC_00 and LDGV_NOX through MC.NOX. vou might
want to use filenames like CONGEMEX (field 5 = LDGV EXH) and OONGEMRU
(field 5 = LDGV_RUN) or CONGHMNX (field 5 = LDGV.NOX) to keeo the com-
ponent and pollutant results straight,
There were of course two I/M results files, named ^REECRED.DBF and
CONGCRED.DBF; their structure was similar to the aoove but abbreviated:
Pi'eid Field Name ~ype Width Decimals Notes
4
i •
LINKID
C
10
Same as LINKID elsewnere
a
C.
COUNTY
C
3
"031" = Cook
3.
ROADTYPE
r
2
Optional
A.
ZONE
N
A.
Optional but you'll want -t
5.
LDGV VX
N
8
linK VX credits from lDGVs
6.
lDGTi"_V0C
N
8
linK VX credits from uDGTi
7.
LDGT2 VOC
N
8
link VX credits from LDGT2
8.
hOGV VX
N
8
link VX credits from HDGV
Again, the field names for tne credit fields are the vemcle type ->¦ the
pollutant. IEPA's original CONGCRED and FREECRED *iles naa e 'urther
fields for LDGV_00 througn HDGV_CO and LDGV.NOX through H0GV_NQX. The
same file-naming remarks apply here as to the emissions *iles above.
TErA comDutec emissions by link in grams, and converted to tons (using
the "actor 1.102/1.000,000 or 1.102E-06) wnen the emissions files were
"Queried" in Foxpro to sum the emissions up anc arrange them by vehicle
type ana county.
-------
Appendix C
EXHIBIT C-2
OMS RECOMMENDED EMISSION FACTORS AND TOXIC FRACTIONS
April 1993
Page C>23
-------
Appendix C
April 1993 Page C.24
-------
ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN 48105
* A \ UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
w
JUL 2 3 332
MEMORANDUM
REGULATION DCvn-
as- «i. «2& *««
OFFICE OF
A« AND RADIATION
SUBJECT: Inputs and Methodology for Calculating Motor Vehicle
Emission Factors for the Southwest Chicago Study Work
Assignment
FROM:
TO:
Rich Cook, Environmental Scientist
Technical Support Branch '
Patricia Morris, Environmental Scientist
EPA Region 5
The purpose of this memo is to provide diesel particulate
emission factors, gasoline particulate TOG emission fractions, and
toxic (benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde) TOG emission fractions
to be used in calculating emission estimates for the motor vehicle
portion of the Southwest Chicago 1990 calendar year emission
inventory. From our recent phone conversation, I understand 1990
MOBILE4.1 runs with TOG output are available for the study area.
This information will be provided to ViGYAN, Inc. for work
assignment number 6, contract number 68-D0-001B, "Evaluation of
Cancer Risks in Southwest Chicago Using Polycyclic Organic Matter
(POM) Potency Factors."
Diesel Parties g'w'saion Factors
In order to calculate emission estimates for diesel
particulate in the study area, you requested 1990 calendar year
gram/mile emission factors for diesel vehicle _pateqories.
Attachment 1 summarizes urban » for light-
duty diesel vehicles, light-au€y"*~«i3:esel'— trucks, and heavy-duty
diesel vehicles. These numbers represent the ratio of urban diesel
particulate mass to. urban diesel vmt^ In order to calculate total
mass emissions of dieieftrparticulate, these emission factors should
be multiplied by diesel VMT estimates for the study area. These
estimates were obtained from the following reference:
Sienicki, E. J. 1992. Letter from E. J. Sienicki, Navistar
International Transportation Corporation, to Phil Lorang,
Environmental Protection Agency, April 23, 1992.
These estimates have also been used in the draft Motor Vehicle-
Related Air Toxics Report, which we plan to release shortly for
public comment. However, these estimates should be used with the
-------
2
caveat that such use should not be construed to imply am
endorsement by EPA of assumptions** or inputs used by Navistar to
obtain these estimates.
Gasoline Particulate Emission Factors
To calculate gasoline particulate emission factors, we
recommend multiplying-.MOBILE4.1 30G exhaust estimates for all?
¦ga'&oiaae ,ve£iicle categorie# from" the~ 1990 Illinois Baseline
Emissions Inventory by 0.011. In the draft Motor Vehicle-Related
Air Toxics Report, we assumed that gasoline particulate represented
approximately 1.1% of exhaust HC. This estimate was obtained from
the following reference:
Hammerle, R. H., T. J. Komi ski, J. E. Weir, E. Chladek, C. A.
Gierczak, R. E. Chase, and R. G. Hurley. 1992. Effect of Mileage
Accumulation on Particulate Emissions from Vehicles Using Gasoline
with Methylcyclopentadienyl Manganese Tricarbonyl. SAE Paper
920131.
The gasoline particulate estimate from this reference was obtained
from 1991 model year Ford Escorts and Explorers with three-way and
dual three-way catalysts respectively. Also, data were collected
at various mileage intervals up' to 105,000 miles. Due to the
paucity of data, fractions for other gasoline vehicle categories
are also assumed to be 0.011.
Toxic Emission Factors
To calculate toxic emission_factoj:sf we recommend multiplying
^ai^^&ati-ng^. loaa _eu_- eytSmat.es.1 rrom^^Qie" ;i9yfr, TllinoifB^
baseline Emissions Inventory by the toxic fractions in"Atta cement
2. For 1,3-butadiene and formaldehyde, evaporative, refueling
loss, running loss, and resting loss emissions are assumed to be
zero.
The toxic fractions for exhaust emissions (of benzene, 1,3-
butadiene, and formaldehyde) and evaporative emissions (of benzene)
were calculated using data from an updated version of MOBILE4.1,
denoted MOBTOX, developed specifically to calculate in-use toxic
gram/mile emission factors for the draft Motor Vehicle-Related Air
Toxics Report. In MOBTOX, toxic emission fractions for various
vehicle categories and technology types are applied to in-use TOG
estimates to calculate in-use g/mile toxic emission factors. By
dividing g/mile toxic emission factors from MOBTOX by TOG emission
factors from MOBTOX, in-use emission fractions for the vehicle
categories can be obtained. Toxic emission fractions obtained
directly from available speciation studies would likely result in
-------
3
an underestimation of true emissions, since virtually all of the
available emission data are from well-maintained, low mileage
vehicles.
Toxic fractions for benzene refueling loss, running loss, and
resting loss are assumed to be 0.01. This assumption is supported
by data contained in the draft Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics
Report. ~
The MOBTOX runs used to derive the toxic fractions in
Attachment 2 were 1990 calendar year runs, and assumed basic I/M
with no anti-tampering program, an average ambient temperature of
80.5°F, and an altitude of 500 feet.
I hope the data contained in this memo are sufficient to
develop a 1990 mobile source emission inventory for this study.
Please contact me at (313)741-7827 if you require any additional
information.
Attachments
cc: Rich Wilcox
Vasu Kilaru (MD-13)
Phil Lorang
-------
Attachment 1
-------
Urban Diesel Particulate EmUalon Factor* for 1990
YM> LOV I HA IB a IV V VI vn VIM VIIB Bum*
Ma puna pn ntwi araaa)*
1000 2 (37 0.452 0.300 4 474 0 10S 0.200 0 070 2.0S1 10 040 8 715 20 372
IMmi dlaaaf Wr (MUontJ*
1000 0.222 1310 1 JOS IJ17 0 120 0 301 0003 2E3S B951 4 0M 16007 2 1«3
Uttan Qram/Mla ImUtlon Factors
1000 0.321 0.344 0.332 0.54# 0 022 0 750 0 000 1 040 1 102 1 638 1 <51 1620
LDDVb 0.321
LDDT(I,IIA)'*8 0.338
HDDV (IIB-VIIIB, urban bu«ee)*'e 1.301
Urban dlaMt partculat* m*»> and VMT nllmttn lot 1000 rapraaanl tha turn ot nOmmtmt lot modal y»«r» 1071 through 1000 Th»»»
hImIh wars obtained liem tha following (•tonne*:
SImiIoM. E. J 1002. Latter from E J Stank*I, Navtriar International Transportation Corporation, to PhU Lorang, Envlronmantal Prolactin Agancy. April 23. 1002
"QtanVmlk amhakm laotor* lor LDDTa and HDDV* ara oaloulatad aa (ha ratio* ol th* mm ol dlaaal particulate mat* and 1ha «um ol dlatal VMT for (ha vahlela catagorlaa In patanthata*
7/22/02
Pag* 1
-------
Attachment 2
-------
Toxic/TOG Emission Fractions for 1990
LDGV
mGti
LDGT2
LDGT
HDGV
LDBV
LDOT
HDDV
MC
Benzene
Exhaust
0.037
0 .040
0.041
0.039
0.042
0.023
0.023
0.010
0 .042
Evaporative
0.023
0.020
0.009
0.015
0.011
0.012
| Refueling L.
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
[j Running L.
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0 .01
| Resting L.
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
1,3—Butadiene1
Exhaust
0.007
0.008
0.009
0.008
0.010
0.010
0.010
0. 016
0. 011
Formaldehyde1
Exhaust
0.015
0.016
0.021
0.018
0. 029
0. 039
0 . 039
0.028
0.020
Evaporative, refueling loss, running loss, and resting loss emissions for 1, 3-butadiene and
formaldehyde are assumed to be zero.
7/21/92
-------
- Intentionally left blank
Appendix C
April 1993
Page C*32
-------
Appendix 0
APPENDIX D
REVISITED POM EMISSION SOURCES
April 1993
Page D*1
-------
Appendix D
Afm.1993 PAOtD*
-------
Appendix D
D.l INTRODUCTION
The term polycyclic organic matter (POM) describes a complex mixture of polycyclic
aromatic hydrocarbons, substituted aromatic hydrocarbons, and aromatic hydrocarbons. POM is
generally associated with the carcinogenic particle or soot component of air pollution created by
incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, vegetative matter, or synthetic chemicals. Previously it
was assumed that the cancer risk of complex mixtures of POM could be represented by a
surrogate compound, benzo(a)pyrene or B(a)P. This approach is often referred to as the B(a)P
surrogate approach. However, as quantitative methods improved, it was discovered that B(a)P
doesn't always correlate well with total carcinogenic compounds present in a complex mixture
of POM. The B(a)P surrogate approach remains useful for simple mixtures. The unit risk factor
for polycyclic organic matter (POM) previously used in the Southwest Chicago Study for
residential oil heating and woodstoves (1.7 x 10'3) was developed based on the B(a)P surrogate
approach.
Recent U.S. EPA publications recommend the use of the comparative potency approach
which applies a cancer unit risk factor to the entire mixture of POM emitted by each source
category rather than to a particular surrogate compound. This approach uses epidemiological data
from human exposure to complex mixtures of POM and tumor initiation potency resulting from
treatment of mouse skin with the extractable organic matter from a complex mixture of POM.
The comparative potency approach is based on the concept of constant relative potency and is
used to estimate human cancer risk where there is no data for a specific mixture, but there is
for a similar mixture. The constant relative potency assumption is implicit in comparisons which
utilize the relative toxicity of two substances in animals to estimate their relative toxicity in
humans. The constant relative potency hypothesis exhibits a constant relationship (k) between
the relative potencies of two bioassays being compared.
relative human potency
relative bioassay potency
Since there is a constant relative potency relationship between rodent bioassay systems and
human bioassay systems, rodent relative potency data can be used to extrapolate risk in human*;
Potency constants for known POM mixtures can be used to estimate the cancer nsk in a complex
POM mixture that has no human cancer data.
April 1993
Page D*3
-------
Appendix 0
"sk factor= ™k factor^ (b'oassay potency
hoassay potency^
The basis for the comparative potency approach is similar to those approaches used in
studying cancer risks of single compounds. The primary limitation for this approach is the lack
of a large data base for quantitative human cancer risks. The comparative potency approach is
more comprehensive than the B(a)P surrogate approach with regard to complex POM mixtures
such as those encountered with residential oil heating and woodstoves. Therefore, the Southwest
Chicago emissions inventory was revisited to adapt the POM comparative potency approach for
gasoline vehicles, woodstoves, aluminum smelters, and residential heating. In contrast, the unit
risk factor for diesel vehicles was developed based on rat inhalation studies of diesel exhaust
D.2 EMISSIONS INVENTORY PREPARATION
The following summary table lists the emission sources and associated unit risk factors
derived based on the comparative potency approach. This information was extracted from the
report Carcinogenic Risks of Polvcvclic Organic Matter tPOMl from Selected F.mkcinn
by Dr. Lewtas.
• Emission Source POM Unit Risk* Panicle Unit
Factor Risk Factor
Woodstoves 2.9 x 10* 1.0 x Iff5
Aluminum Smelter" 9.] x 10"* 1.1 x 10*
Residential Heating (Distillate Oil) 0.9 x 10*
* Unit risk factor (over a lifetime) is presented in (ug/tn1)'1
k No aluminum smelters are identified in the Southwest Chicago emissions inventory
The Southwest Chicago emissions inventory contains the POM emissions for two area
sources to which the comparative potency approach can be applied for cancer assessment: Wood
Stoves and Residential Heating Using Oil.
April 1993
Paqe D*4
-------
Appendix D
D.2.1 POM EMISSIONS FROM WOODSTOVES
No revisions in POM emission amounts from woodstoves (including fireplaces) are
required since the annual POM emissions and the unit risk factor denved by the comparative
potency approach are both available.
D.2.2 POM EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL HEATING
The unit risk factor recommended in the comparative potency approach has only the
particle unit risk factor for Residential Heating Using Oil. Instead of estimating the annual POM
emissions, the U.S. EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) suggested that
paniculate emissions should be developed to accommodate the available unit risk factor.
Furthermore, both distillate oil use and natural gas use are included in the category according to
the established definition of Residential Heating area source category. The revised POM
emissions from Residential Heating should recognize this difference in fuel type wherever
possible.
Steps to revise POM emissions from Residential Heating are as follows:
1. Separate the existing POM emissions by fuel usage type.
2. Compute particulate emissions using the existing POM emissions from Residential
Heating with available particulate emission factors.
Step 1.
The number of housing units using natural gas and distillate oil were provided by U.S.
EPA Region S. Based on the POM emission factors and monthly fuel consumptions by
fuel type (10,346 x 106 cubic feet for natural gas and 8,717,660 gallons for distillate oil),
county-wide monthly POM estimates were first estimated. The emission factors used here
are extracted from Air Toxic Emission Inventory for The Southeast Chicago Area and
listed as follows:
Residential Heating Fuel Type POM Emission Factor
Distillate Oil 1.4 mg/gal
Natural Gas 12 g/mmcf
April 1993
Page D*5
-------
Appendix 0
Annual POM emissions currently in the inventory were then portioned based on the
monthly county estimates to develop the annual POM emissions by fuel type for
Residential Heating for each county (only a portion of each county is considered in the
study). Residential Heating POM emissions by fuel type for Lake County m Indiana were
poruoned based on the averaged ratios of POM emissions by natural gas use and distillate
oil use in the Illinois counties since no residential fuel consumption information is
available.
In this step, residential heating particulate emissions by distillate oil were estimated by
first dividing POM emissions from distillate oil use by the POM emission factor (1.4
mg/gal, or 0.0030864 lb/1000 gals), then multiplied by the particulate emission factor of
(2.5 lb/1000 gals). The particulate emission factor is listed in U.S. EPA's AP-42 series.
Applied the same procedures used in Step 2A to estimate the particulate emissions from
the residential natural gas use. The particulate emission factor ranging from 1 to 5
lb/mmcf can be found in U.S. EPA's AP-42 as well. The POM emission factor of 12
g/mmcf is approximately equal to 0.02646 lb/mmcf.
D J REVISED EMISSIONS INVENTORY
In this section, we present both POM and particulate emissions used for woodstoves and
residential heating in the study.
D.3.1 POM EMISSIONS FROM WOODSTOVES
These annual POM emission amounts remain the same as the previous estimates.
Step 2A.
Step 2B.
County
POM Emission from
Woodstoves (ton/vrt
Cook County, IL
Du Page County, IL
2.0525
0.0758
0.0895
05463
Will County, IL
Lake County, IN
APRIL 1993
Page D*6
-------
Appendix 0
D.3 2 POM EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL HEATING
The following table lists the annual POM emission breakdown by fuel type for Residential
Heating, as well as the estimated particulate emissions emitted by Residential Heating Using Oil.
County Particulate Emission POM Emissions Paniculate Emission POM Emission
from Dist Oil Use' from Dist Oil Use from Nat Gas Useb from Nat. Gas Use'
Cook 82.6700 0.1021 235 8516 1 2479
DuPage 0.5800 0.0007 3 6477 0 0193
Will 1 2712 0 0016 5.3676 0 0284
Lake, IN 97212 00120 298619 0 1580
Used with the unit risk factor of 0 9 x 10's derived by comparative potency approach
Emissions presented are based on the paniculate emission factor of 5 lb/mmcf
Used with the unit risk factor of 1 7 x 10'J derived by B(a)P surrogate approach
April 1993
Page D»7
-------
Appendix D
- Intentionally left blank
April 1993
Page D*8
-------
Appendix E
APPENDIXE
ANNUAL EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT/SOURCE CATEGORY
April 1993
Page E*i
-------
Appendix E
April 1993
Page E«2
-------
Appendix E
ANNUAL EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT/SOURCE CATEGORY
Pollutant Source Category Emissions
(tons/yr)
Acrylamide
Otber Industrial Points
0.025000
Acrylonitrile
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.001981
Other Industrial Points
2.842000
Arsenic
Other Industrial Points
3.985086
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000461
Steel Mills
4.298343
Asbestos
Demolition
0.032886
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000120
Road Vehicles
0.091600
Benzene
Aircraft Engines
8.998666
Barge Loading
2.905000
Gasoline Marketing
60.260238
Municipal Waste Landfills
0.831000
Nonroad Engines
195.267708
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
13277737
Other Industrial Points
126.764602
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000008
Road Vehicles
1376.911354
Steel Mills
3355.569452
Surface Coating
8.477311
Wastewater Treatment
0.800000
Beryllium
Other Industrial Points
0.000856
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000009
C aHminm
Other Industrial Points
1.435750
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000287
Road Vehicles
0.039582
Steel Mills
4.766730
Carbon Tetrachloride
Background Concentrations
n/a
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
2.972864
Other Industrial Points
0.110385
April 1993
Page E*3
-------
Appendix E
ANNUAL EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT/SOURCE CATEGORY (CONT'D)
Pollutant Source Category Emissions
(tons/yr)
Chloroform
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.220948
Other Industrial Points
0.01688S
Per Capita Area Sources
60.753454
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000012
Wastewater Treatment
0.800000
Hexavalent Chromium
Chrome Platers
2.806720
Cooling Towers
0.815103
Commercial Heating
0.125526
Industrial Heating
0.019105
Residential Heating
0.067316
Other Industrial Points
0.044503
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000001
Steel Mills
0.076470
Coke Oven Emissions
Steel Mills
427.676000
Distillate Particulate
Residential Heating
169.515106
Diesel Particulate
Nonroad Engines
785.871604
Road Vehicles
2841.265595
Dioxins
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.000001
Other Industrial Points
0.000233
Epichlorohydrin
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.000025
Other Industrial Points
0.100000
Ethylene Oxide
Hospitals
21.833589
Other Industrial Points
68.044600
Formaldehyde
Aircraft Engines
62.865350
Background Concentrations
n/a
Commercial Heating
8.851186
Industrial Healing
6.797304
Nonroad Engines
69.459432
Residential Heating
99.470073
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.040689
April 1993
Page E*4
-------
Appendix E
ANNUAL EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT/SOURCE CATEGORY (CONT'I
Pollutant
Source Category
Emissions
(tons/yr)
Formaldehyde (continued)
Other Industrial Points
114.809030
Per Capita Area Sources
100.585285
Road Vehicles
474.062711
Steel Mills
16.041845
Gasoline Vapors
Gasoline Marketing
9566.400046
Other Industrial Points
238.300000
Gasoline Particulate
Nonroad Engines
104.035569
Road Vehicles
254.528222
Methyl Chlonde
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.000300
Other Industrial Points
0.323460
Surface Coating
21.253065
Wastewater Treatment
0.080000
Methylene Chlonde
De greasing
546.925726
Municipal Waste Landfills
14.471000
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
68.190442
Other Industrial Points
46.072285
Paint Strippers
786.506722
Per Capita Area Sources
1047.561462
Surface Coating
263.986398
Wastewater Treatment
9.440000
PCBs
Municipal Waste Landfills
0.000019
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.001152
Other Industrial Points
0.000175
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000589
Piston Particulate
Aircraft Engines
1.232505
POM (B(a)P)
Commercial Heating
0.786892
Industrial Heating
1.845260
Residential Heating
2.589838
Other Industrial Points
0.022388
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.100711
POM (Woodstoves)
Residential Wood Combustion
4.632943
Propylene Oxide
Other Industrial Points
0.944500
April 1993
Paqe E*5
-------
Appendix E
ANNUAL EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT/SOURCE CATEGORY (CONT'D)
Pollutant Source Category Emissions
(tons/yr)
Styrene
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
1.634881
Other Industrial Points
20.384700
Wastewater Treatment
2.640000
Turbine Particulate
Aircraft Engines
48.874590
Vinyl Chloride
Municipal Waste Landfills
2.294000
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
4.405844
Other Industrial Points
3.198500
Vinylidene Chloride
Municipal Waste Landfills
0.413000
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.933013
Wastewater Treatment
0.012000
Ethylene Dibromide
Other Industrial Points
0.903000
Ethylene Dichloride
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.200143
Other Industrial Points
61.100500
Wastewater Treatment
0.800000
1,3-Butadiene
Aircraft Engines
7.604370
Nonroad Engines
82.088420
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.183425
Other Industrial Points
1.324000
Road Vehicles
214.194182
Steel Mills
0.195000
Trichloroethylene
Degreasing
620.698104
Municipal Waste Landfills
2.167000
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
30.632783
Other Industrial Points
94.232385
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites
0.000001
Wastewater Treatment
2.080000
Perchloroethylene
Degreasing
386.444815
Dry Cleaners
1534.721482
Municipal Waste Landfills
9.705500
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
0.729222
Other Industrial Points
204.529051
Wastewater Treatment
6.560000
Aran. 1993
Page E*6
-------
Appendix E
ANNUAL EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT/SOURCE CATEGORY (CONT'D)
Pollutant Source Category Emissions
(tons/yr)
Hexac hlorobenzene
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs 0.506905
Other Industrial Points 0.048000
RCRA Hazardous Waste Sites 0.000501
Wastewater Treatment 1.480000
Total
2683J. 85 tons/yr
April 1993
Page E»7
-------
Intentionally left blank
Appendix E
April 1993
Page E*8
-------
Appendix F
APPENDIX F
AIR DISPERSION MODELING AND RISK CALCULATION TECHNIQUES
APR0.1993
Page F*1
-------
Appendix F
April 1993 Page F»2
-------
Appendix F
F.l AIR DISPERSION MODELING TECHNIQUE
F.J.I POINT SOURCE
With the Southwest Chicago Point Source Emissions Inventory, three air dispersion
modeling runs via the Industrial Source Complex - Long Term (ISCLT) were submitted to
estimate the annual concentrations at the receptors. One run was for the regular industrial point
sources, one was for TSDF facilities, and the last one was for point sources listed in the northern
boundary emissions inventory. The Stability Array (STAR) station at Midway Airport was used
to simulate the meteorological data and the annual concentration estimates for 64 receptors were
computed using the emission rate of 1 metric ton/yr from each emission point. Multiplying the
actual emission in metric tons by the unit concentration at a receptor grid provided the actual
annual concentration at that receptor grid.
F.1.2 AREA SOURCE
Seventy-two air modeling runs were conducted to generate the necessary concentration
estimates from all area source emissions in this study. For the area source emissions data, thirty-
four Climatological Dispersion Model (CDM) runs were required based on the different county
and split combination. Please note that splits based on population or dwelling units in a county
were updated according to the 1990 Census total population and housing unit counts data (Public
Law 94-171, or PL 94-171) in this study. One CDM run in response to the northern boundary
area emissions inventory and 37 CDM runs for mobile sources at Midway airport also were
submitted. Again, the meteorological condition around the Midway airport was utilized as the
representative climate in the target area while modeling. For each area source run, the CDM-
modeled concentrations computed were stored at the 8 x 8 receptor grids. For each pollutant,
combining the CDM concentration matrix, based on the appropriate source category, with its
actual emission rate, one can come up with the estimated annual concentration profile at the 8
x 8 receptor grids.
While modeling via CDM, the height above the ground for a emission grid is required.
In general, the value of 5 meters was assigned as the Southeast Chicago study if the height is
missing.
¥2 RISK CALCULATION
Once the annual concentration estimates at the receptor grids have been estimated,
determining the individual risk estimates is a very straightforward procedure. Two assumptions
April 1993
Page F»3
-------
Appendix F
were made. A linear relationship between annual concentration and cancer risk is first assumed.
The second assumption is that there is a zero threshold value for computing cancer risk. These
two assumptions were used in the Southeast Chicago Study. Based on these two assumptions,
one can compute the individual cancer risk by multiplying the annual concentration value at a
receptor grid by the unit risk factors of those pollutants emitted from an emission source (stack
or emission area).
= Qjjc * Fj
R,jJt = individual lifetime cancer risk at receptor "k" due to the emission of pollutant
"j" from" emission source "i",
C,jJt = annual concentration at receptor "k" due to the emission of pollutant
"j" from emission source "i",
Fj = lifetime unit risk factor of pollutant "j".
Background concentrations are computed using the above equation as well, based on
uniform annual concentrations (formaldehyde: 2.23 ug/m3. carbon tetrachloride: 0.76 ug/m3)
assumed at each receptor grid. Tables 1 and 2 in Chapter II detail the lifetime unit risk factor
values associated with the identified carcinogenic air toxics in this study.
Figure 9 in Chapter IV shows the population profile for the Southwest Chicago area of
8x8 receptor matrix. This population profile was obtained by summing up populations at
BGED centroids within a receptor of the 8x8 grid matrix. The following equation outlines the
calculation of lifetime incidences.
IjjJt = RiJJt *
Iijjc - lifetime incidence at receptor "k" due to the emission of pollutant "j"
from emission source "i",
Rjjjt — individual lifetime cancer risk at receptor "k" due to the emission of pollutant
"j" from emission source Y,
Pk - population residing within the receptor grid "k".
April 1993
Page F*4
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Appendix Q
APPENDIX G
TOP FIVE SOURCE CONTRIBUTORS TO CANCER CASES
April 1993
Page G*1
-------
Appendix G
-00_ PAGE G»2
April 1993
-------
Appendix G
TOP FIVE SOURCE CONTRIBUTORS TO CANCER CASES
Pollutant Concentrations Lifetime Lifetime
(ug/m3) Individual Risks Cancer Cases
SOURCE CATEGORY -
ROAD VEHICLES
1,3-Butadiene
5.23E+00
1.46E-03
2.22
Diesel Particulate
6.68E+01
1.13E-03
1.69
Gasoline Particulate
5.93E+00
3.03E-04
0.46
Benzene
3.29E+01
2.73E-04
0.42
Formaldehyde
1.11E+01
1.45E-04
0.22
Asbestos
2.20E-03
1.67E-05
0.025
Cadmium
9.49E-04
1.71E-06
0.0026
SOURCE CATEGORY -
BACKGROUND CONCENTRATIONS
Formaldehyde
1.43E+02
1.86E-03
2.72
Carbon Tetrachloride
4.86E-f01
7.30E-04
1.07
SOURCE CATEGORY -
CHROME PLATERS
Hexavalent Chromium
1.48E-01
1.78E-03
3.13
SOURCE CATEGORY -
NONROAD MOBILE SOURCES
1,3-Butadiene
2.68E+00
7.52E-04
1.19
Diesel Particulate
2.69E+01
4.57E-04
0.73
Gasoline Particulate
3.36E+00
5.38E-05
0.085
Benzene
6.39E+01
5.31E-05
0.084
Formaldehyde
2.27E+01
2.95E-05
0.047
SOURCE CATEGORY -
AIRCRAFT ENGINES
1,3-Butadiene
2.87E+00
8.03E-04
1.21
Formaldehyde
2.38E+01
3.09E-04
0.47
Turbine Particulate
1.63E+01
2.76E-04
0.39
Benzene
3.40E+00
2.82E-05
0.041
Piston Particulate
4.61E-01
7.37E-06
0.0082
April 1993
Page G*3
-------
- Intentionally left blank
Appendix G
April 1993
Page G*4
-------
Appendix H
APPENDIX H
TOP FOUR POLLUTANT CONTRIBUTORS TO CANCER CASES
April 1993
Page H>1
-------
Appendix H
Paqe H*2
April 1993
-------
Appendix H
TOP FOUR POLLUTANT CONTRIBUTORS TO CANCER CASES
Source Category
Concentrations
(ug/mJ)
Lifetime
Individual Risks
Lifetime
Cancer Cases
POLLUTANT - U-BUTADDENE
Road Vehicles
5.23E+00
146E-03
2.22
Aircraft Engines
2.87E+00
8 03E-04
1.21
Nonroad Engines
2.68E+00
7 52E-04
1.19
Other Industrial Points
1.54E-01
4.30E-05
0 071
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
3.88E-03
1.09E-06
00018
Steel Mills
3.29E-04
9.20E-08
0 00014
POLLUTANT • POM/Particulate Matter
Road Vehicles
7.27E+01
143E-03
2.15
Diesel Particulate
6.68E+01
1.13E-03
1.69
Gasoline Particulate
5.93E+00
3.03E-04
0.46
Nonroad Engines
3.03E+01
5.11E-04
0.82
Diesel Particulate
2.59E+0J
4.57E-04
0.73
Gasoline Particulate
3.36E+00
5.38E-05
0.085
Aircraft Engines
1.68E+OI
2.83E-04
0.40
Piston Particulate
1.63E+01
2.76E-04
0.39
Turbine Particulate
4.61E-0I
7.37E-06
0.0082
Others POM Sources (B(a)P Surrogate)
1.37E-01
2.32E-04
0.35
Residential Heating (Distillate Oil Use)
4.24E+00
3.82E-05
0.059
"Woods loves
1.02E-01
2.96E-06
0.0044
April 1993
Page H*3
-------
Appendix H
TOP FOUR POLLUTANT CONTRIBUTORS TO CANCER CASES (CONT'D)
Source Category Concentrations Lifetime Lifetime
(og/mJ) Individual Risks Cancer Cases
POLLUTANT - HEXAVALENT CHROMIUM
Chrome Platers
1.48E-01
1.78E-03
3.13
Cooling Towers
2.50E-02
3.00E-04
0.45
Commercial Heating
3.14E-03
3.77E-05
0.058
Residential Heating
1.57E-03
1.88E-05
0.029
Industrial Heating
8.79E-04
I.06E-05
0.016
Steel Mills
1.69E-04
2.03E-06
0.0030
Other Industrial Points
1.72E-04
2.06E-06
0.0030
RCRA Hazardous Sites
1.34E-09
1.60E-11
0.00000002
POLLUTANT - FORMALDEHYDE
Background Concentrations
1.43E+02
1.86E-03
2.72
Aircraft Engines
2J8E+01
3.09E-04
0.47
Road Vehicles
1.11E+01
1.45E-04
032
Per Capita Area Sources
2J0E+O0
3J25E-05
0.0S1
Residential Heating
2.49E+00
3J24E-05
0.050
Nonroad Engines
22TE+00
2.95E-05
0.047
Other Industrial Points
2.03E+00
2.64E-05
0.037
Commercial Heating
2.47E-01
311E-06
0.0049
Industrial Heating
1.84E-01
2J9E-06
0.0036
Steel Mills
5.00E-02
6.51E-C7
0.00098
Other Hazardous Waste TSDFs
1.77E-04
231E-09
0.0000034
April 1993
Page H-4
-------
Appendix I
APPENDIX I
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ROBBINS INCINERATOR AND SUN CHEMICAL
April 1993
Page 1*1
-------
Appendix I
April 1993
Page l*2
-------
rid
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
Appendix I
POTENTIAL RISKS POSED BY ROBBINS INCINERATOR
Receptor Location Lifetime Lifetime
(S.W. Corner) Individual Cancer
Risks Cases
4623.62 433.24
5.99E-09
0
4623.62 434.09
6.43E-09
0
4623.62 434.94
6.86E-09
0
4623.62 435.79
7.35E-09
0
4623.62 436.64
7.41E-09
0
4623.62 437.49
7.35E-09
0
4623.62 438.34
7.24E-09
0.0000025
4623.62 439.19
7.03E-09
0.000017
4624.43 433.24
5.72E-09
0.0000092
4624.43 434.09
6.10E-09
0.000011
4624.43 434.94
6.54E-09
0.000014
4624.43 435.79
6.81E-09
0.000012
4624.43 436.64
6.81E-09
0.000011
4624.43 437.49
6.70E-09
0.0000093
4624.43 438.34
6.59E-09
0.000016
4624.43 439.19
6.43E-09
0.000020
4625.25 433.24
5.45E-09
0.00000050
4625.25 434.09
5.83E-09
0.000018
4625.25 434.94
6.15E-09
0.000015
462525 435.79
6.26E-09
0.000021
4625.25 436.64
6.26E-09
0
4625.25 437.49
6.15E-09
0
4625.25 438.34
6.05E-09
0.000016
462525 439.19
5.94E-09
0.000020
4626.06 433.24
5.23E-09
0.000014
4626.06 434.09
5.56E-09
0.000016
4626.06 434.94
5.83E-09
0.000016
4626.06 435.79
5.83E-09
0.000016
4626.06 436.64
5.77E-09
0
4626.06 437.49
5.72E-09
0
4626.06 438.34
5.61E-09
0.000012
4626.06 439.19
5.45E-09
0.000015
Page 1*3
-------
Appendix I
POTENTIAL RISKS POSED BY ROBBINS INCINERATOR (CONT'D)
Grid ID Receptor Location Lifetime LifetimeGrid
(S.W. Corner) Individual Cancer
Risks Cases
33
4626.87 433.24
5.01E-09
0.000014
34
4626.87 434.09
5.28E-09
0.000015
35
4626.87 434.94
5.45E-09
0.000016
36
4626.87 435.79
5.39E-09
0.000014
37
4626.87 436.64
5.34E-09
0.000017
38
4626.87 437.49
5.28E-09
0.0000063
39
4626.87 438.34
5.17E-09
0.0000099
40
4626.87 439.19
5.06E-09
0.000011
41
4627.68 433.24
4.79E-09
0
42
4627.68 434.09
5.06E-09
0
43
4627.68 434.94
5.06E-09
0
44
4627.68 435.79
5.06E-09
0
45
4627.68 436.64
5.01E-09
0.000011
46
4627.68 437.49
4.90E-09
0.000015
47
4627.68 438.34
4.85E-09
0.0000092
48
4627.68 439.19
4.74E-09
0.000018
49
4628.50 433.24
4.57E-09
0.0000081
50
4628.50 434.09
4.74E-09
0.00000023
51
4628JO 434.94
4.74E-09
0
52
4628JO 435.79
4.74E-09
0
53
4628.50 436.64
4.68E-09
0
54
4628.50 437.49
4.57E-09
0.000019
55
4628.50 438.34
4.52E-09
0.0000045
56
4628.50 439.19
4.41E-09
0.0000068
57
4629.31 433.24
4.41E-09
0.000012
58
4629.31 434.09
4.47E-09
0.0000086
59
4629.31 434.94
4.47E-09
0
60
4629.31 435.79
4.41E-09
0
61
4629.31 436.64
4.36E-09
0
62
4629.31 437.49
4.30E-09
0.0000023
63
4629.31 438.34
4.25E-09
0.00000028
64
4629.31 439.19
4.14E-09
0.000000012
TUTXL 0.00052
April 1993
Page l*4
-------
Appendix I
POTENTIAL RISKS POSED BY SUN CHEMICAL INCINERATOR
Grid ID Receptor Location Lifetime Lifetime
(S.W. Corner) Individual Cancer
Risks Cases
l
4623.62 433.24
8.12E-10
0
2
4623.62 434.09
1.36E-09
0
3
4623.62 434.94
4.04E-09
0
4
4623.62 435.79
5.00E-09
0
5
4623.62 436.64
3.45E-09
0
6
4623.62 437.49
2.52E-09
0
7
4623.62 438.34
1.54E-09
0.00000054
8
4623.62 439.19
9.93E-10
0.0000024
9
4624.43 433.24
1.10E-09
0.0000018
10
4624.43 434.09
2.54E-09
0.0000044
11
4624.43 434.94
1.40E-08
0.000029
12
4624.43 435.79
4.99E-08
0.000089
13
4624.43 436.64
5.87E-09
0.0000098
14
4624.43 437.49
2.28E-09
0.0000032
15
4624.43 438.34
1.26E-09
0.0000031
16
4624.43 439.19
8.2 IE-10
0.0000026
17
4625.25 433.24
1.23E-09
0.00000011
18
4625.25 434.09
2.51E-09
0.0000077
19
4625.25 434.94
5.32E-09
0.000013
20
4625.25 435.79
2.30E-08
0.000078
21
4625.25 436.64
4.53E-09
0
22
4625.25 437.49
1.97E-09
0
23
4625.25 438.34
1.16E-09
0.0000031
24
4625.25 439.19
7.73E-10
0.0000027
25
4626.06 433.24
8.04E-10
0.0000022
26
4626.06 434.09
1.00E-09
0.0000028
27
4626.06 434.94
1.89E-09
0.0000053
28
4626.06 435.79
5.92E-09
0.000016
29
4626.06 436.64
3.69E-09
0
30
4626.06 437.49
1.80E-09
0
31
4626.06 438.34
1.07E-09
0.0000023
32
4626.06 439.19
7.15E-10
0.0000020
April 1993
Page t*S
-------
Appendix I
POTENTIAL RISKS POSED BY SUN CHEMICAL INCINERATOR (CONT'D)
Grid ID Receptor Location Lifetime Lifetime
(S.W. Corner) Individual Cancer
Risks Cases
33
4626.87 433.24
34
4626.87 434.09
35
4626.87 434.94
36
4626.87 435.79
37
4626.87 436.64
38
4626.87 437.49
39
4626.87 438.34
40
4626.87 439.19
41
4627.68 433.24
42
4627.68 434.09
43
4627.68 434.94
44
4627.68 435.79
45
4627.68 436.64
46
4627.68 437.49
47
4627.68 438.34
48
4627.68 439.19
49
4628.50 433.24
50
4628.50 434.09
51
4628.50 434.94
52
4628.50 435.79
53
4628.50 436.64
54
4628.50 437.49
55
4628.50 438.34
56
4628.50 439.19
57
4629.31 433.24
58
4629.31 434.09
59
4629.31 434.94
60
4629.31 435.79
61
4629.31 436.64
62
4629.31 437.49
63
4629.31 438.34
64
4629.31 439.19
TOTAL
4.50E-10
0.0000012
7.35E-10
0.0000021
8.71E-10
0.0000025
2.17E-09
0.0000055
2.92E-09
0.0000092
1.57E-09
0.0000019
1.00E-09
0.0000019
7.04E-10
0.0000015
3.82E-10
0
5.30E-10
0
5.13E-10
0
1.10E-09
0
2.12E-09
0.0000045
1.44E-09
0.0000043
9.01E-10
0.0000017
6.57E-10
0.0000024
3.14E-10
0.00000055
3.69E-10
0.000000018
3.44E-10
0
6.67E-10
0
1.28E-09
0
1J23E-09
0.0000052
8.72E-10
0.00000086
6.02E-10
0.00000093
2J9E-10
0.00000068
2.71E-10
0.00000052
2.5 IE-10
0
4.50E-10
0
8.51E-10
0
1.04E-09
0.00000055
7.98E-10
0.000000053
5.95E-10
0.0000000018
0.00033
April 1993
Page l*6
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