he Impact of Costs Associated With New Environmental Standards Upon the Petroleum Part II structure of the industry Stephen Sobtoka and Company November 1971 Distributed By: National Technical Information Service U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield Va. 22151 ------- THE IMPACT OF COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH N^W ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS UPON THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY PART TWO STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY Prepared for the Council on Environmental Quality New York, N. Y. November 23, 1971 Stephen SoLoiLa & Company ------- ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY SECTION I. DEMAND A. The Products B. Market and Distribution, C. Government Influence on Market S3CTI0N II: 'SUPPLY A. (Industry Operations - 1. The production process 2. Tyne and location of rav; materials 3. Number and location of firms and of plants 4. Types of firms 5. Types of plants 6. Employees B. Financial Structure and Trends/ 1. Costs - fixed and variable 2. Profits 3. Caslr f lows C. ,Refinery/Technology and Technological Trends, D. Industry Utilization Plates - .Competition]^ APPEHDI" The Viability of Small Refineries - 1 - St cpken SoLotlca ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont.) EXHIBITS 1. Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts 2. Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products a) U.S. Sales of Distillate Fuel Oil by Usee b) U.S. Sales of Residual Fuel Oil by Uses 3. Refinery and Terminal Prices 4. Functional Characterization of Petroleum Refining Processes 5. Schematic Flow Diagram of Petroleum Refininr - A. Petroleum Product Manufacturing 6. Refinery Environmental Control Processes 7. Schematic Flow Diagram of Petroleum Refining - B. Pollutant Collection and Treatment 8. Number and Capacity of Refineries by States 9. Refineries - Distribution by Size - 1971 10. Refineries - Distribution by Size - 1966 11. Number of Refineries by Size Classes 12. Refinery Capacity by Size Classes 13. Employment, Earnings and Payrolls 1L. Average Operating Costs of U. S. Refineries 15. Rate of Return on Net Worth a) Estimated Investment in Fixed Assets b) Estimated Financial Data ]j. Estimated Petroleum Refinery Capital Requirements 1972-1921 - 2 - Stephen SoLotlca & Co... ------- INTRODUCTION AIJD SUMMARY This is Part Two of a three-part report. In this Part v/g presentMata and background information relevant to a consider- tion of the economic impact of pollution abatement costs on the petroleum refining industry. In our analysis wo have throughout assumed a normal functioning of market forces. We assume that price controls, if existent, will not affect the flow of investment funds to the oil industry and will operate so ls to allow price fluctuations which reflect cost changes. Our choice of data and our description of the refining industry are influenced by two considerations. First, to present information valuable to persons who guide the making of public policy for this industry. Secondly, to discuss those aspects of the industry's relations with other industries which would be useful in assessing the impact of pollution abatement costs in the economy generally. The petroleum refining industry in the United States consists of some 250 plants owned by about 130 firms and located in 39 of the 50 states. The refineries have a replacement value at current prices in excess of $15 billion. The refining in- dustry employs about 150,000 persons. The bulk of refining is done by firms which also market refined products or produce crude oil, or do both. In most firms the refining portion of the business is not its major activity. Refinery investment is less than 25 percent of total investment in the domestic oil industry, and refinery employment is a similar fraction of total employment. With the exception of residual oil there is little foreign competition. There also is only limited competition from products of other industries. - 3 - Stephen SoLotLa & Comjw- ------- The industry has experienced a fairly steady rrov/th rate which approximates the frowth in real GNP. This is expected to continue- Stephen SoLo (La & C onipanj ------- - 5 - SECTION I DEMAND Stephen Solotlca & C 01111)01. ------- - 6 - A. The Products The industry manufactures hundreds of distinruishnbly different products. From the viewpoint of environmental control costs these may be rrouped into four broad product classes: gasoline, intermediates, residual, and other. Gasoline accounts for about JU-5 oercent of industry output. It is typically priced at about 12 cents per gallon1^ in cargo lots on the Gulf Coast. Although other materials- can be used as gasoline substitutes (propane, methyl and ethyl alcohol, electric batteries) their use is negligible for cost reasons. Intermediates include military and commercial jet fuel, kerosene, space heating oil, also called No. 2 fuel or furnace oil, and diesc-1 fuel. These products are typically priced at about 10 cents per gallon and make up about 33 percent of industry output. No substitutes exist for the transportation fuel portion of the intermediates market. Natural gas is used extensively in the space heating; market and may be more or less expensive than oil, depending on user location. Some heating oil is imported, using a "quota" system, into the Northeast and reduces the demand for domestic product. Residual is currently priced at from about 6 cents to about 12 cents per gallon or even more, depending on sulfur content and location. Residual amounts to about 6 percent of domestic petroleum production and 17 percent of domestic demand for oils. The dif- ference is accounted for by imports. Because there are ro limits on residual imports into the Easter states, the price of residual in the U.S. is based on the international market. Through most of 1) Average of 100 octane "premium" at 13 cents per gallon and 9U octane "regular" at 11 cents per gallon. Piatt's Oil Price handbook. Stephen SoLotka & Company ------- - 7 - the 1900's residual was priced sufficiently below crude oil to prompt increased investment in refineries in order to reduce reridual yields. In large volume installations natural gas and coal compete directly with residual oil. Other products include asphalt, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas (mostly propane), naphthas and solvents, coke, petrochemicals and petrochemical feedstocks. (Asphalt and lu- bricating oils are important products for many small refineries.) These products account for about 16 percent of the domestic industry's output. They are priced from 4 cents to $1.00 per gallon. Most lubricants and liquefied petroleum pas (LPG) have no significant economical substitutes from outside the industry. On the other hand, petroleum solvents face direct competition from the chemical industry. Some of the "other" products, like asphalt on the East Coast and petrochemical feedstocks generally, are subject to international competition. Non-metallurgical petroleum coke is exported in significant amounts. The market for this product depends in part on emission rules in customer countries. B. Market and Distribution The U.S. petroleum market has traditionally been divided into five geographic regions called "PAD Districts." (See Exhibit _ Within each district product consumption is classified by individus' commercial (including government), industrial and export use. Market data for 1966 through 1970 by product and district are shov.M in Exhibits 2, 2a, and 2b. Oil products are distributed from refineries primarily by pipeline and tankers oV barges to terminals. From there local Steplien SoLotlca & G I OII11K ------- - 8 - deliveries are made by truck. Some rail distribution is utilized. The impact of new environmental standards on the distribution and marketing of oil products does not fall within the scope of this study. But the costs of meeting new standards in moving the product from the refinery to the final consumer and in the asso- ciated storage facilities may be important. From the viewpoint of dollar volume gasoline accounts for 50 percent of the refining industry's value of output. Inter- mediates account for 31 percent and residual for only 4 percent. Well over one-half of total refinery output sold is through dis- tribution and marketing facilities which refining companies own or in which they have a financial interest. In general, sales of higher-unit-value products (lubricants, gasoline, jet fuel) are more highly integrated than those of low-unit-value products. Most large companies operate their refining, distribution and marketing functions in an integrated manner. Assigning product prices at various points within the operation is an internal matter to most companies. Nevertheless, considerable product is sold by refiners directly to customers at published prices. Thus, conclusions adequate for this study can be drawn about the costs associated with new environmental standards. Over the past five years the volume of gasoline produeec has increased at an average annual rate of l+. 7 percent. Inter- mediates consumption has grown at 5.2 percent rcer year. Residual production in domestic refineries has been stable but consumption has increased at about 6.5 percent per year. Oil product prices have increased at a slower rate than either consumer or wholesale price indices, largely because the 1) Because of residual imports the relative contribution of the various products to domestic refiners1 gross dollar revenue is different than the relative contribution at the consumer level. Stephen SoLotlca & Go*.^ ------- - 9 - industry has been able to utilize improved technology to offset cost increases. In the short term however important price changes do occur, mostly associated with changes in refinery utilization and with seasonal factors. Also, as crude oil accounts for over Wo-thirds of the cost of oil products at the refinery pate, produc , prices change with the price of crude. Since 1966 there have be-r. several increases in the price of crude oil. In Exhibit 3 repre- sentative major product prices for a five-year period are tabulated. C. Government Influence on Market Federal, state and local governments all influence the oil product market. The Federal Government's main influence is through its indirect support of the price of domestic crude oil. This control is exercised by limitinr, in the interest of national security, the amount of lower-priced foreign oil that can be imported into the U.S.^ All levels of government purchase large quantities and a wide range of oil products. One of these purchases, military grade jet fuel (JP-i+), is important to some small refiners. A srasoline-like material, JP-iV requires little processing beyond separation from crude. In contrast, automotive gasoline is produced in a complex processing scheme. Government also influences the market for petroleum products through imposition of environmental standards. This 1) Because importation of crude oil is limited by a quota system and" foreign crude prices have typically been lower than domestic, import rights normally have considerable value. These rights are allocated among refining firms according to their size. Although large firms have bigger quotas than small ones the latter are given more "tickets" per unit of throughput. Steplien So Lotlca & G' 'oniranv ------- - 10 - can take the form of direct specification of product character- istics, e.7., sulfur content in residual oil. Cr it may take the form of imposing environmental standards on petroleum users which in turn affect the nature of the product, e.g., control of auto emissions . In either case, the potential costs of changes in product characteristics far exceed the cost of bringing refinery operations up to environmental standards. Government policy in pricing and regulation of natural pas, an important refinery fuel, also affects refining costs. This will be further discussed below. Stepken SoLotlca & Company ------- - 11 - SECTION II SUPPLY Steplien SoLotlca & Company ------- A. Industry Operations 1. The production process. Although a typical oil refinery is technically complex, the manufacturing process is conceptually simple. Crude oil is the primary raw material used in refining. Crude oils are liquid mixtures of many carbon- containing chemical compounds. Crudes differ from one another in the relative concentration of the various compounds. In refining, crude oil is first separated into several groups of varying molecular size known as cuts. The chemical composition of some of these cuts is then altered by changing the average molecular size. Some cuts are further processed to alter the shape or structure of the molecules. Most of the original and the altered cuts are "treated" to make innocuous or to remove impurities, notably sulfur. Treated cuts are then blended to produce finished products. To these may be added various sub- stances, known as additives, to impart certain desirable properties. Exhibit U classifies various refinery processes according to their principal function in the refining of petroleum: separation, alteration of molecules by size or shape, or treating. A schematic flow diagram of a refinery is shown in Exhibit 5. In refinery operation certain polluting materials may be released into the environment. The pollutants are by- products of the various refinery processes. (See Exhibit 7 of Part Two) The principal ones arise in operations as follows: a) Hydrogen sulfide (H^S^the gaseous precursor of sulfur oxides, is formed in hydroprocessing (catalytic reforming, hydrotreating and hydrocracking) and cracking (catalytic and thermal, including coking). Only trivial amounts, which can be ignored, are formed in other processes (distillation, asphalt manufacture, lubricating oil manufacture, alkylation, etc.). Stephen SoLotlca & Company ------- - 13 - Sulfur oxidos are also formed in the combustion of sulfur- containine liquids. (Also, when liquid fuels containing; nitroren compounds are burned, the resultant nitrogen oxides may cause an opaque stack "plume.M) b) Hydrocarbon vapors can escape from tanks containing rasoline or crude oil. c) Carbon monoxide (CO) is a by-product of catalytic crackinr. Also some catalyst dujt occurs. d) Substances which create a biolop-ical oxyrren demand (BOD) in waste water are formed in catalytic and thermal cracking, and in sulfuric acid treatment of petroleum products (notably naphthenic and Pennsylvania lubricating oils). Also most of the solvents (phenol, furfural, etc.) used in manufacturen^ solvent-refined lubricating oils create BOD. e) Waste water from every refinery may contain oil or the water may not have a neutral pH. Processes used to control the emission of these pollutants are shown in Exhibit 6. The schematic flow diagram in Exhibit 7 shows the collection and treatment of pollutants produced in each process. EPA has assumed certain technolopical devices to be necessary and sufficient to meet proposed new environmental standards. They are: (1) Hydrogen sulfide removal from refinery fuel /ras and conversion to elemental sulfur in plants equipped with tail- gas scrubbing. The entire sulfur control system is to be paral- leled vith a redundant facility. (2) Floating roofs on gasoline and volatile crude oil storafe tanks with more than ^0,000 gallon capacity. Steplien SoLotlca & G onipanv ------- - 14 - (3) Catalyst removal from catalytic cracker re- generator flue gas by electrical precipitation and incineration of the flue gas in carbon monoxide boilers. An important EPA assumption was that both particulate and carbon monoxide emissions from catalytic crackers with fresh feed capacity below 10,000 barrels per stream day were so low that no equipment would be needed in these units.^ (4) BOD removal in an effluent treatment plant including equipment for water flow equalization, oil separation, neutralization, flotation, sedimentation, coagulation and bio- logical treatment. (5) Oil and suspended solids removal and neutraliza- tion in a water effluent treating plant simpler than that needed for BOD removal. The forefoinf classification can be summarized as follows: Refining Processes Installed Effluent Control Required Large Thermal or Hydro Lube Air Uater Cat. Small Cat. Proces- Mfg. H?5 Co & Cracker Cracker ses " Cat. BOD X XXX X XX X x X x In addition, all refineries will have to have floatinr roofs on specified tanks and a water effluent treatinp facility for removing oil and suspended solid: and for neutralizing 1) The assumption that small catalytic crackers will not need control equipment is an important one. There are 27 catalytic crackers in 25 refineries (10$ of the industry) vith catalytic crackers of less than 10,000 barrels per stream day capacity (Oil and Gas Journal, March 22, 1971» PP 9S-1?0). A 7500 barrels per day -analytic cracker emits perhaps three tons of sulfur oxides and 70 tons of carbon monoxide per day. Stepken SoLo tit a & C oiiijiany ------- - 15 - The imposition of environmental controls on the quality of refinery products will add additional processing complexity to refineries. For example much more catalytic reforming, as well as some other processes, will be introduced to make lead-free gasoline. Intermediates will require hydro- desulfurization. The manufacture of low-sulfur residual will require installation of considerable equipment. At the moment, the low-sulfur residual picture is complicated by wide variations in crude oil composition and varying sulfur content restrictions. Residual desulfurization is expected to be expensive. These matters, though of compelling economic importance to many refinerr, lie outside the scope of our study. 2. Type and location of raw materials Crude oil is the most important raw material used by the refining industry. Natural gasoline, a liquid product of the natural gas industry, furnishes about 7 percent of refinery intakcr There are no other significant raw materials. About 39 percent of industry raw material is of domestic origin, 11 percent is importec from Canada, I-'.exico, South America (largely Venezuela), Africa, Indonesia and the Middle East. It appears likely that the U.S. will in years to cone import an increasing fraction of its crude oil requirements. The major crude-producinp- states are Texas, Louisiana, California, Oklahoma, 'ivyominp and New Mexico, although 30 of the 50 states have some production. Texas and Louisiana together 1) U.S. Bureau of Mines, Mineral Industries Surveys - Petroleum Jan. 1971 - Table 23. Steplien SoLotlta & C ompan ------- - 16 - account for about U& percent of the domestic industry's crude oil production. Large Alaskan deposits will be exploited when a transportation system for them is built. 3. Number and location of firms and of plants There are about 130 firms in the oil refining industry. They own some 250 refineries. Refinery locations are concentrated along the Kississippi-Louisiana-Texas Gulf Coast, near Los Angelas and San Francisco, in the Pacific Northwest, near Chicago, near Philadelphia and in New Jersey, in Ohio, and in Oklahoma. Exhibit & shows the number of refineries and refinery capacity by state. U. Tynes of firms Firms in the oil refining industry can be classified according to size, extent of integration, and the number and size of refineries owned. All refineries are necessarily multi-product and all perform the entire process of converting crude oil into salable products. All large and medium size firms, and some email or.es, have diversified into chemical manufacturing. A very few have further diversified into other industries but the fraction of total capital employed in non-oil or chemical activities generally is small. 5. Types of plants Oil refineries are categorized by size and by the ranp-e of their products. There is also considerable variation in age of refineries. But classificatior by age is not useful because additions to and modifications of plants are the industry's orincioal form of expansion. Stephen SoLotlca & C i ompan Pan7 ------- - 17 - Exhibit 9 shows the distribution of refineries by size. Refineries of over 100,000 barrels per day capacity account for 55 percent of U.S. refinery capacity (a barrel is 42 U.S. gallons). They number 36 out of a total of about 250 plants. Very few new refineries have been built in the last five years and few have been abandoned. Of a total population of about 260 five years 25 plants appear to have been shut down and 15 new ones built Exhibit 10 shows the distribution of refineries by size in 1966. Those newly built plants which appear to be fairly complete refiner- ies vary in size from 10,000 to about 150,000 barrels per day of throughput. It appears that size is not a characteristic which in itself accounts for turnover. Exhibits 11 and 12 depict the dis- tribution of industry capacity by numbers of plants and by plant size in 1966 and 1971. Multiple plant operations are commonplace in the industry. The 16 largest firms, each of which has over 200,000 barrels per day of total capacity, operate 105 refineries. These 105 plants account for 80 percent of the industry's capacity. A few of these refineries have capacities of less than 25,000 barrels per day. Half of all industry refineries (125 plants) are smaller than 25,000 barrels per day. They account for only 6 percent of industry capacity. Technological progress in the past 20 years has induced construction of larger, lower-unit-cost process units. Consequently there has been a trend toward larger plants. Although no new plants of over 200,000 barrels per day have been built, the industry's net growth in capacity has been the result of smaller plants' expansion to this very large size class. 1) In the Appendix we discuss the characteristics of the shut-down plants. Stephen Sohotlca & Compaq ------- -16- The trends in the industry most significant to this study are that the number of refineries has decreased slightly and their average size has increased. In general, very small refineries with intakes below about 10,000 barrels per day have few units and manufacture only a narrow range of products. Some small refineries in Pennsylvania, southern Arkansas, Oklahoma, and South Texas take advantage of local crude quality to manufacture lubricants. Asphalt is also an important product for many small refineries. Over a third of plants with capacities below 10,000 barrels per day produce asphalt as a principal product. Asphalt is costly to transport, especially ovorland. Therefore a relatively large fraction of the industry's asphalt output is produced in small refineries. As regards refinery differentiation by product slate, a small refinery may be designed to process low-sulfur crude oil into the naturally occurring volumes of gasoline, intermediates and rosidual, or asphalt which is essentially a special grade of residual. Such a refinery requires only a crude oil distillation unit, a catalytic reformer with feed pretreater, two or three additional distillation columns and treating units. Some small refiners in Southern California due to the characteristics of local crude oil manufacture military jet fuel and residual with only a crude oil unit. On the other hand a large refinery manufacturing a full range of fuel products plus lubricants, industrial solvents, liquefied potroloum gas and a few common chemicals will have a score or more of process units. A common technology is ur ^d throughout the industry. The differences that do exist are small and probably not sipnificant in terms of a plant's ability to meet environmental standards economically. There are important differences in the extent to Step] ten Soliotlca (St C 'ompan^- ------- - 19 - v;hich environmental control equipment has been installed to date. 6. Employees Data on employment and earninfs are presented in Exhibit 13• About 60 percent of petroleum refining employees are production workers"^. Their hourly and weekly earnings are con- siderably above the average for all manufacturing. Hourly earninrs in 1971 in petroleum refining are estimated at $4.22 versus $3.5* ? 1 for all manufacturing, weekly earnings $205.00 versus $1Z|.2.00 . Refinery employment as a whole has been fairly stable. In 1964 there were 150,000 employees and in 1968, 151,000. By 1970 employment had risen to 153>000^'. In the same period tho industry'' capacity rose about 17^ mostly as a result of capacity increases in existinr refineries. A great many refineries, about 2/3 of the total, have been expanded in the last 5 years. It is likely that the bulk of the net employment increases have taken place in very larp;e refineries, those over 100 or even 200 thousand barrels per day of throughput which also account for almost the entire net growth in output. Perhaps one-third of refining industry employees have skills which are not readily transferable to other industries. While it was clearly beyond the scope of this study to make an analysis of the transferability of the skills required by the industry, an examination of the occupational titles indicates that two-thirdc of the employees have skills which are not special to the industry, or they are unskilled. 1) Source: Chemical & Engineering News, Sept. 6, 1971» p. 33A 2) ibid. 3) Statistical Abstract of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Dept. of Commerce, p. 221. (Some refineries are operated in con- junction with transportation and/or terminallinp facilities. It is not clear whether their employees are included in the refinery worker count.) epken SoLotLa & C ompan , ------- - 20 - Detailed occupational data for the petroleum refining industry are available for the year 1965. In that year 148,000 people we re employed in the petroleum refining industry, £9»000 of whom were production workers.^ These figures include employ- ment in central offices, research laboratories, etc. of refining firms as well as in refineries. Refinery employment was about 106,000 including about 77>000 production workers. A Bureau of Labor Statistics study^ of a representative sample of 4^,000 of the 77»000 showed that almost 1/3 of refinery production workers wero maintenance workers and &5f<> of these were skilled craftsmen, such as welders, mechanics, machinists, electricians, etc. One half of production workers were skilled refinery operators such as stillmcn, treaters, compounders, testers, etc. These r.en's skills arc probably transferable only to other similar industries, such as chemical manufacturing or food processing. The balance of the oro^uction workers are either unskilled, or are helpers, or have feneral ckillls such as stock clerks or truck drivers. Thus it appears that about one-third of the people in the industry (probably a smaller fraction in small plants) are skilled workers whose job opportunities at a comparable skill level are dependent on re-employment in the "process" industries. The other two-thirds are employable in other industries at their present skill levels if job opportunities exist for them. 1) Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1971 Bureau of the Census, Dept. of Commerce, p. 221 2) Industry Warce Survey, Petroleum Refininp, Dec. 19^5, 3ulletin #1526, U.S. Dept. of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics, p. 12. Stephen SoLotLa & Cow.^nny ------- - 21 - B. Financial Structure and Trends It is impossible to analyze the financial structure of the petroleum refining industry usin/f published data. Too few firms and none that are typical of the industry are exclusively or even primarily in the refining business. To discuss the financial characteristics of the industry we shall use price data which reasonably reflect the values of products made by typical refiners, and we sha!3 assume cost rfata we consider appropriate for crude oil. Sales volume in the oil industry has risen almost with- out interruption and at a fairly steady rate for many years. The history of bulk prices of major products is shown in Exhibit 3."^ 1. Costs - fixed and variable. No data are published which break down refinery costs in a manner useable for this study. \'h have therefore made such an estimate for a plant manufacturing; fuel products (no lub- ricants). V/e caution the reader that no actual refinery will 2) exactly match these figures. Refining costs are characterized by a very hirh ratio of raw material costs to total cost. Fixed costs make up most of the balance. Our illustrative estimate of costs follows. (See next pajre) 1) There is considerable variation in prices due to transport costs. 2) Our estimate closely approximates that of W. L. Nelson. See Exhibit 1J+. Stephen SoLotlca & C i om pany ------- - 22 - Costs - Fixed and Variable Item Cost/barrel of Percent of total costs refinery intake Fixed Variable Raw materials $ 3.50 737° Fuel and utilities .30 If* ofo Labor .25 5% Chemicals, catalysts, additives & materials .20 Insurance and taxes Capital charges^ , .05 If, .50 10fo Total $ if.30 17?° 1) Basis &fo per year cost of capital. 2. Profits No data on refinery profitability are available. But we can assume that refining operations are, on the marpin, neither more nor less profitable than the rest of a tyoical oil company's business. Exhibit 15 rives some relevant financial data for the oil industry. While profitability of the business as a whole has been subject to some variability, industry eamin.-r have been adequate to attract capital to finance growth and replacement. 3. Cash flows Exhibit 16 shows our derivation of an estimate of the rsfininr industry's capital needs in the 10 years berinninr with 1972. This estimate indicates :hat roughly $15 billion dollars will be used for expansion and normal replacement in tro Stephen So bo tic a Go...j>nny ------- - 23 - decado. Substantial amounts of additional capital will be required for equipment to manufacture environmentally "clean" products. Capital requirements for this purpose are expected to be about $5 billion (EPA estimate). Finally, $1 billion will be needed to conform refinery operations to environmental standards. We shall discuss this further in Part Three. It is useful to puv our estimates of capital require- ments for refineries in perspective with oil company capital ex- penditures for all purposes. Data on a group of 28 large oil companies show that roughly 22 percent (about $1.5 billion of $6,6 billion) of domestic capital expenditures by this group represents investment in refineries and chemical plants in 1970.^ Total domestic investment in that year for the same group of companies is about 58 percent of worldwide investment.2^ C. Refinery Technology and Technological Trends Petroleum refining has been a high-technology industry since V/orld War I. The technology of the industry has steadily improved. A few major breakthroughs, notably thermal and catalytic cracking, catalytic reforming, and solvent extraction of lubricating oils have had profound effects. But of almost equal importance in the long run has been the improvement in existing processes. Tech- nological improvements are utilized industry-wide because industry members traditionally license the use of significant new technology to competitors. There are no important trade secrets in the refining industry. 1) Financial Analysis of a Group of Petroleum Companies 1970, Chase Manhattan Bank, p. 19. 2) ibid, p. 13 Step lien SoLotlta & C'oni j par - ------- - 24 - A combination of product quality competition and economies of building and operating larger plants has served to push oil refining firms toward bigger and more complex refineries. Product quality competition has been achieved by the use of ad- ditives and of quality-improving processes like catalytic reform?n~ to increase gasoline octane number, and ty catalytic hydroren treatment to reduce sulfur content of intermediates. This has led to an increase in the amount and value of processing equipment oer unit of output. Relatively low residual prices which have encouraged investment to reduce residual yields also raise the value of equipment ner unit of output. Thus, larger refineries and larger units within ex:'stirr refineries mark the industry's development. Once the capability exists to build and operate larger plants there is a stronr economic incentive to do so. Large plants cost less to build per unit of intake than smaller ones. Typically it only costs 50 nerccnt r.oro to build a plant with 100 percent more capacity (the "two-thirds power rule"). This does not mean that an existinp small plant is necessarily unviable. Existing small plants are effective compe- titors. But new small plants are not being built, except for an occasional asrhalt plant. D. Industry Utilization Rates If. S. refineries are currently processing crude oil at an averare annual rate of about percent of reported capacity. This is a fairly typical long-run fi; ure for the industry. But it is important to differentiate between a refinery's canacity Stephen SoLotLa & Company ------- to procoss crude oil and its capacity to manufacture a particular product. Almost all refineries have the flexibility to alter their product mix. They can to some extent increase the output of trasoline at the expense of intermediates or they can nroduce more intermediates at the expense of gasoline. Nearly all refineries could increase residual manufacture above the design level but this is uneconomic while the pri^e of residual is below the cost of crude oil. Published data on capacity utilisation cannot reflect the industry's ability to alter yields. Hence they are not useful in estimating the industry's ability to increase output of specific products. We believe that at present there is excess capacity to produce gasoline at current octane numbers and lead content."1"^ 3v 1973 or 1974» however, more capacity will be needsr than is now available. Requirement to manufacture products with specific nron- ertiec further influences capacity. A refinery that car manufactu 100 volumes of 94 octane leaded gasoline mirht be abls to make on] 70 volume? of lead-free 94 octane. Producing low-sulfur residual also presents special problems. Residual is essentially a by-product of the refining process. Its sulfur content is predominantly dependent on the sulfur content of the crude the refinery uses. It follows that. most refineries have no "capacity" to produce low-sulfur resicuf"' from the^r normal cruie stream. Availability of fuel of acceptable quality for internal refiner:/ use also affects refinery capacity. Refiners normally burn in thiir internal operations the lowest valued material 1) ::o data are available to prove this assertion but prices on the "car,'ro" and "bid" markets indicate that this must be the case. These prices are too low to provide an incentive to increase capacity. This is discussed elsewhere in the renort. Stephen So Lotlca & ------- - 26 - available. They first use the pases produced ?s a by-nroduct of refinins: operations because these gases generally have no market. The next choice is purchased natural gas, if available, because it is priced below residual (per BTTJ) in most Darts of the U.S. and the facilities needed to burn pas are cheaoer than those needed to bum liquids. The remaining requirement, about 120,000 barrels a day"^ currently, is met largely with residual fuel. A small amount of coal is also used. Residual and coal normally contain considerable sulfur. Thus, if low sulfur rules are imposed some refinery capacity will depend on availability of low-sulfur residual. Similarly, the availability of ,Tas in some instances affects capacity. Refineries with no facilities for burning liquid or solid fuels would have to install new equipment if pas were not available in sufficient quantity. This would be expensive as well as time consuming. 3. Competition The market for wholesale oil products is competitive in the economist's meaninp of the term. That is, the price elasticity of demand facinr individual firms is hifrh. Despite a strong and continuing- industry effort to establish brand differentiation for retail consumers, the wholesale market operates on a commodity 2) ~ basis. Perhaps one-third of gasoline , about 50 percent of intermediates and almost all residual are sold as commodities, with such lar'-c volumes sold by many refiners an active brokerage businesc e::ists. Non-branded marketers maintain arrrressive Durch-;n- in.rc staffs, and oil companies compete viforously on various "bid" markets. 1) Minerals Industry Surveys, op. cit. 2) So-called unbranded sales at retail by independent oil companies, commercial sales direct to users and sales to government arrrerptc to somewhat over 30 percent of total gasoline sales. eplien SolotLa & C ompanv ------- - 27 - Prices on the various unbranded markets typically are close to short-run marginal costs. This indicates that the industry is highly competitive. Because the competitive nature of the refining industry affects its ability to pass cost increases on to consumers in the short run, we shall discuss it in some detail. "Did" prices, appearing in various industry publications, give the price at which product is sold, usually to governmental agencies or to other large buyers. For example, for the year starting November 1970 a major oil company bid 10.74 cents per gallon on 94 octane rasoliiie to be delivered in Dallas, Texas. This delivery is in small lots by truck. In order to estimate realization at the refinery gate we must deduct the following costs: dalivery, terminalling in Dallas and pipeline transportation from the refinery. Typical delivery costs are about 1/2 cent oer rc.llon, terminalling about 1/4 cent, pipeline costs also about 1/4 cent. Thus the refinery netback on the C-ulf Coast on this sale v;as at least 9 3/4 centi: per gallon. It might but was unlikely to have been as hi<~h as 10 1/4 cents if eurolus capacity was present in the distribution system. Eesides raw material costs the marginal cost of manu- facturing gasoline includes cost of additives, mostly lead, which is roughly 1/2 cent per gallon, plus refinery fuel, catalyst ana a few minor items which together cost about another one cent per rallon. Since considerable spare capacity to make gasoline existed durin~ the period covered by this sale, it is reasonable to assumr that the bidding company could, on the margin, convert crud": oil with only a small by-product output. Thus we need only to add 1) Piatt's Oilgram, October 4, 1971. Stephen SoLotka & Goni|>urr ------- - 28 - the cost of crude oil to manufacturinr costs, then deduct the sum from ths refinery netback to arrive at a differential over marginal costs. During the bid period crude oil delivered to a Gulf Coast refinery was priced at 6 cents per gallon, or slightly more. Thus the marginal cost of pasoline manufactured for this bid was about 9 1/2 cents per gallon, or somewhat more. Since the refinery netback may have been as low as 9 3/U cents per gallon, and surely was no higher than 10 l/l+ cents, it seems clear that short-run marginal refinery cost and the revenue received from this sale were close together. V.:e believe this example to be typical of the current market conditions. It shows together with our estimate of typical refining costs (see B.l above) that current prices are inadeauatc to provide an incentive to increase refining capacity. Hence some price increases are to be expected quite apart from those which will be caused by the costs associated with the impact of environ- mental standards. As was discussed earlier, foreign competition is essentially non-existent except in the case of residual oil sold primarily on the eastern seaboard. This product is sold almost entirely with- out brand identification and on a specification basis. Prices .ire determined by supply and demand on the international market. Stephen SoLotLa & G ompanj ------- APPENDIX The Viability of Small Refineries Unfortunately no data are available on the economic viability of small refiners. In order to make a useful guess at^ut their operations we examined the small refineries which have discontinued operations in the last five years. Due to changes in ownership it was not possible to be sure that we correctly identified all plants. Hence our analysis may not be completely accurate. We identified, from the total refinery population of about 260*^, 25 refineries operating in 1966 which ha4 ceased operating by 1971. Of these about 1$ apparently made fuel products and the balance were primarily asphalt plants and lube plants. The viability of an asphalt refinery is greatly dependent upon the local asphalt market. A reduced local demand may be met more economically by shipment of product into the area. All of the closed asphalt plants except one were very small. The ex- ception was on the Eastern Seaboard. That plant may have become uneconomic due to the imposition of crude oil import limitations. On the 18 fuel producers, 5 reported no equipment except a crude distillation unit. ¦ Of the other 13, seven were closed as a result of consolidations with other plants, in almost all cases ovmed by the same firm. These refineries tended to be the larger of the group of closed plants. Several were located in metro- politan areas, and the resultant consolidated units had larger throughputs than the sum of the previously separate plants. It appears that some of the consolidations were instigated by land limitations. 1) Oil and Gas Journal, March 28, 1966, pp. 15/*-172. - 29 - eplien SoLotLa & Company ------- - 30 - Appendix (cont'd) Deducting the eipht consolidated plants, there remained a »roup of five fuel producing refineries which were closed in the five year period. The larpest of them had a throufh- put of less than 15»000 barrels per day. Their total throughput was 3&»500. These five refineries account for about .1$ of industry capacity. The closinp of 17 refineries, including seven asphalt plants, in five years out of a population of 260 refineries is a small percentage. Consequently we conclude that small firms are, on the whole, viable business enterprises. However, their viability is enhanced (or even made possible) by the value of import tickets 1' they are granted. Refineries Operating on l/i/66 All Ref's Closed Since '66 All Fuel Ref's Closec' Simple Fuel Ref's Closed 260 10,200 KSY Ho. of Refineries Combined Capacity Thousands of Barrels per Day Asphalt Plants Closed IB 292 t 13 280 V LT\ 1 CO ; Other Fuel Ref's Closed 2L2 Fuel Ref'p Closed -"uo to Consoli- dations Stepken SoLotlca & Company ------- 31 EXHIBITS Steph en SoLotlca & C ------- r- 9 CO o w o «¦* O c SB 3 PETROLEUM ADMINISTRATION FOR DEFENSE (PAD) DISTRICTS ME N OAK MINN MICH One/. Alaska and Hawaii) 8 MK WIS C " " ; *tL IOWA i OHIO (NO COLO MO KY NC OKLA 8C i AL*- • 1 188 co M X rr ------- oo DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION 000'b Barrels Per Day Exhibit 2 Automotive Gasoline Product Year f1965 \ 1966 j 1967 \ 1968 J 1969 \ 1970 (\ 965 1966 Jet Fuel ) 1967 Naphtha TypeS 1968 1969 (1970 P. A. D. ^DISTRICT U.S. I I II in IV v i 1,578 1,635 566 141 673 4, 593 1,649 1,695 607 148 709 .4,808 1, 706 1, 748 621 151 732 4, 958 1,817 1,833 660 164 787 5,261 1,904 1,930 705 170 817 i5,526 2,000 2,008 729 186 86 V 5, 784 94 - 47 40 7 80 26fe 88 47 50 7 86 278 81 51 53 7 114 v 306 93 51 70 8 124 . 34 6 80 46 59 8 104 297 66 43 37 7 94 247 ri965 119 71 33 9 102'' 334 1966 148 82 ^ 31 12 118 391 Jet Fuel j 1967 205 \ 107' V 128 37 16 153 . 518 Kerosene * 1968 238 43 19 181 609 Type 1969 . 265 145 50 19 215 694 1970 ^ 284 150 - 50 20 212 716 N r 1965 \ 141 82 34 7 3 1 267 1277 1966 155 80 32 6 4 , (Ex Jet) > 1967 145 85 37 5 2 274 Kerosene i 1968 153 84 38 4 I 281 1969 144 83 39 6 3 275 1970 126 83 43 / 6 5 26 3 Residual Distillates < 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1^1970 {1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1,077 636 139 59 215 2, 126 1, 102 661 134 62 225 2, 184 1, 164 669 127 60 222 2, 242 1, 250 685 157 71 226 2, 389 1,272 715 176 72 231 2, 466 1, 308 738 191 71 232 2, 540 1,070 192 68 30 248 1, 608 1, 173 177 64 29 273 1, 716 1,250 171 75 29 261 1, 786 1,277 170 68 31 280 1, 826 1,412 173 78 35 281 1, 979 1,643 190 87 25 257 2, 202 Stephen Go lit|1i % ------- U. S. SAL.ES OF DISTILLATE FUEL OIL, BY USES 1964 - 1969 (Thousands of Barrels) Gas and Electric Fuel for Public-Utility Oil Power Company Industrial Year V essels Plants * Railroads Use Use 1969 , . , 18,877 12, 158 86,429 13, 867 42,456 1968 18,235 8,509 84,030 9, 975 45,795 1967 . . 17,478 2, 858 88,688 8, 997 44,997 1966 16, 642 3, 612 89,104 10,485 47,108 1965 15,532 3, 661 86,436 10,430 42,484 1964 . . 16,001 3, 849 88, 198 10,576 36,007 Total Domestic Sales n > » i n 1969. 1968. 1967. 1966. 1965. 1964. 'Excluding Fuel for Mis cel- Oil Heating Military laneous Company Oils Use Uses Use All Uses 511,768 13, 958 200, 787 886,433 900,300 510,682 12,593 183, 281 863, 125 873, 100 501,026 17,325 147,831 820,203 829,200 472,778 16,303 153, 681 799,228 809, 713 475,992 14,953 137,403 776,461 786,891 451,860 13, 609 127,451 736,975 747,551 CO * Beginning in 1967, represents use by electric public-utility power plants only, includes data for gas turbine plants. Beginning in 1968, Authority: Bureau of Mines, Mineral Industry Surveys, "Shipments of Fuel Oil and Kerosine," Annual. M X £ CT p ------- U. S. SALES OF RESIDUAL FUEL OIL, BY USES, 1964 - 1969 (Thousands of Barrels) Gas and Electric Fuel for Public-Utility Oil Power Company Industrial Year Vessels Plants* Railroads Use Use 1969 . . 85,581 247,634 3, 381 36,559 130,654 1968 . . 87,575 184,956 4,296 39, 329 135,664 1967 . . 80,680 158,417 5,494 37,880 131,819 1966 . . 73,641 140,642 3, 792 35, 177 141,050 1965 . . 73,639 114,884 4,001 34,354 140,602 1964 . . 83,024 97, 595 5, 350 43, 098 157,176 Total Domestic Sales K ns sr— o 9 cn o o— o Sr- a> O c 3 » s r- * Excluding Fuel for Mis cel- Oil Heating Military laneous Company Oils Use Uses Use All Uses 1969 . . 178,095 31,750 8, 875 685,970 722,529 1968 . . 174,326 34, 990 8, 348 630,155 669,484 1967 . . 175,990 40,465 8, 794 601,659 639,539 1966 . . 167,471 41,861 10, 338 578,795 613, 972 1965 . . 156,254 40,380 10,004 539,764 574,118 1964 . . 126,215 35,568 8, 606 513,534 556,632 Co cn Beginning in 1967, represents use by electric public-utility power plants only. Authority: Bureau of Mines, Mineral Industry Surveys, "Shipments of Fuel Oil and Kerosine,11 Annual. M X sr ts) O" ------- 36 Exhibit 3 REFINERY AND TERMINAL PRICES1, 1966-1970 - CARGOES - 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Cents Per Gallon Motor Gasoline 100 Octane Motor Gasoline 94 Octane 13. 26 11. 37 13. 18 11. 31 12. 63 10. 64 12. 99 10. 99 12. 58 10. 5 r No. 2 Fuel oil - Gulf 8.74 9.48 9.40 10.13 No. 2 Fuel oil - New York harbor 9.51 10.16 10.34 10.30 10. 25 Bunker C - Gulf Bunker C - Gulf (Max. 0. 6% S) 2. 10 2. 35 $ Per Barrel 1. 98 2. 22 1. 67 2. 24 1. 47 2 03 2. 44 3 01 ^Annual averages of high and low posted price. Note: Posted prices are not always transaction prices. Source: Piatt's Oil Price Handbook and Oilmanac, 1970 prices. Stephen SoLotLn C i oinpanv ------- 37 Ujxnioxo FUNCTIONAL CHARACTERIZATION OF PETROLEUM REFINERY PROCESSES HYDROCARBON REFINING PROCESSES PRINCIPAL PROCESS PURPOSE Separation Distillation (atmospheric and vacuum crude frac- tionation, naphtha split- ting, depropanizing, de- butanizing, vacuum flashing) Absorption (recovery of ethane- or propane-and-heavier from saturated or cracked gas) Extraction (deasphalting) Alteration (Conversion) Thermal Cracking (visbreaking, coking) Catalytic Crackinp Hydrocracking Alkylation Polymerization Extraction (solvent extraction Catalytic Reforming for separating aromatics from naphtha, lube oil, etc.) isomerization Crystallization (dewaxing of lube oil) TREATING PROCESSES Hydrotreating Caustic Treating (Merox, Bender, etc.) Clay Treating Stephen SoLolLi ( '*> in j ------- SCHEMATIC FLOW DIAGRAM OF PETROLEUM REFINERY A. PETROLEUM PRODUCT MANUFACTURING REFINERY FUEL GAS * PROPANE (IPG) NATURAL BUTANE GAS GAS LIQUIDS ALKYLATE PREMIUM GASOLINE STRAIGHT RUM STRAIGHT RUN GASOLINE GASOLINE CATALYTIC REGULAR GASOLINE REFORMATE CAT. CRACKED GASOLINE STRAIGHT RUN NAPHTHA LIGHT STRAIGHT RUN GAS OIL KEROSENE & JET FUEL HEAVY STRAIGHT RUN GAS OIL STRAIGHT fUN RESIDUE -» DIESEL FUEL r A ! LUBRICATING ! ; oil ! {MANUFACTURE I i HYDRO- [ ! CRACKING • ! V TO GASOLINE BLENDING """"J—» TO CATALYTIC REFORMING CAT. CRACKED "*• HEATING OIL NAPHTHA VACUUM DISTILLATE CAT. CRACKED LIGHT GAS 00. I RESIDUAL FUEL OIL VACUUM BOTTOMS CAT. CRACKED HEAVY GAS OIL ¦ COKING f J OR ! THERMAL i • CRACKING t T" ¦> GAS TO NAPHTHA HYDROGEN TREATER ~ TO CATALYTIC OR HYDRO CRACKER + COKE OR RESIDUAL FUEL OIL BY PRODUCTS ¦* ASPHALT > LUBRICATING OILS - OPTIONAL PRODUCTS TREATING PROCESSES (1) AQUEOUS LIQUID TREAT (2) TREAT TREAT TREAT TREAT DESALT- ING ALKYL- ATION REMOVAL HYDROGEN TREATING CATALYTIC REFORMING LIGHT ENDS PROCESSING CATALYTIC CRACKING VACUUM DISTILLATION CRUDE OIL DISTILLATION (1) AQUEOUS LIQUID (7] AQ.LIQ.OR HYDROGtN % E a* H' c-h ui L J ! OPTIONAL PROCESSES ------- Exhibit b. REFINERY ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL PROCESSES Environmental Problem Control Process(es) Hydrogen sulfide. Reacts to form sulfur oxides if burned. 1. Gases containing hydrogen sulfide (H2S) are treated with a liquid (usually an amine solution) which preferentially absorbs H2S. The H2S is re- covered by stripping it from the liquid. It is subsequently converted to sulfur and recovere 2. Sour water stripping. Aqueous effluents from refinery pro- cesses which contain H2S are steam stripped to remove the H2s. Sulfur oxides. Emitted to the atmosphere with flue gases from burning fuels containing sulfur. Irritating to eyes and respira- tory system. Also cause opaque "plume 1. Hydrodesulfurization. The sulfur-containing oil is reacted with hydrogen at elevated temperatures and pressures in the presence of a solid catalyst. Sulfur is converted to H2S. [Hydroren for the hydrodesul- furization process is generally recovered as a by-product of catalytic reforming or manu- factured by converting either natural gas or refinery by- product gases]. Stephen SoLotL. Conij junv ------- 40 Environmental Problem Carbon monoxide. Present in 1. stack gas from catalytic cracking units. Poisonous to animal life. Smoke. Produced when in- 1. sufficient air is used in firing boileis and furnaces or 2 by incomplete incineration of process materials vented and flared because of upsets. Soot and fly ash. Entrained 1. in stack Eas from furnaces or boilers fired with residual, coal or coke. Hydrocarbon vapors. Evaporated 1. from tanks or small leaks and spills. React in atmosphere to cause smog. ~ Exhibit 6 (contj) -2 Control Process(es) Stack Gas Scrubbing. The sulfur-oxide-containing combustion gas is contacted with a solid or liquid material that preferentially absorbs the sulfur oxides. Sulfur oxides are then generally recovered in concentrated form from the absorbing material and convertec to sulfur or sulfuric acid. Combustion. The stack gas is i enriched with fuel gas and burned. Useful heat is re- covered and the carbon mono. ide is burned to harmless carbon dioxide. Proper control of boilers and furnaces. Incinerate vented materials in a "smokeless flare." Electrical precipitation. Install floating roofs or vapor recovery system on tanks. Good housekeeping practices - fix leaks, maintain pump seals, clean up spills, etc. epncn SoDotlca G onijjairy ------- 41 Environmental Problem Oil (and water-insoluble non- hydrocarbon liquid organic compounds) entrained in refinery waste water. Harm- ful to aquatic life and dirty. Water-soluble organic compounds. Dissolved in refinery waste viator. Many compounds toxic to aquatic life. Also reduce oxygen content of receiving water body which leads to aquatic life damage. May also smell badly. Phenolic compounds. Produced in cracking processes and ex- tracted from cracked products. Toxic to aquatic life. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Exhibit 6 (co^t.) -3 Control Process(es) API Separator. Oil is allowed to rise to the surface of tho contaminated water and is skimmed off. Aeration. Air is blown throurh the contaminated water. Oil rises to the surface as froth and is skimmed off. Biological treatment. a) Trickle filter. Contaminated water is trickled through a pile of rocks on which live colonies of bacteria. The bacteria convert the contaminants into harmless compounds (mostly water and carbon dioxide). b) Activated sludge treater. Contaminated water is contacted with a suspension of bacterial colonies, nutrients and air. The bacteria convert the con- taminants into harmless compounds. Clean water is separated by settling of bacterial sludge. Sold to Chemical industry. Incinerated. Barged to sea and dumped. Pumped into underground forma- tion which is sealed to prevent contaminating fresh water. Hydrotreat the cracked product to eliminate the need to ex- tract phenols. Stephen SoLotLu Coiiij rnnv J ------- 42 Exhibit 6 (cont.) -k Environmental Problem Fluid catalyst. Entrained in 1. stack gas from catalytic crack- ing units. Control Process(es) Centrifugal separation. The stack gas is passed through a stationary centrifugal device (cyclone) at high speed. The resultant force throws the dust to the outside wall from which it is collected. Electrical precipitation. The stack gas is passed between metal plates which are elec- trically charged to a hirh voltage. The dust is attracted to, and settles on, the plai ?s from which it is recovered. Stenlien SoLotlca & C Jomoanv ------- SCHEMATIC FLOW DIAGRAM OF PETROLEUM REFINERY B. POLLUTANT COLLECTION AND TREATMENT C/3 a -a s— ft 3 C/2 0 2? SULFUR SOUR GAS h2s REMOVAL SULFUR PLANT LIGHT TREAT 1) ALKYL- ATION ENDS SOUR SOUR WATER STRIPPER SOUR GAS TREAT (D i WASTE WATER CATALYTIC REFORMING HYDROGEN TREATING TREAT (1) CRUDE * DESALT ING TREAT (2) DISTILLATION SOUR SOUR WATER WATER TREAT (2) HYDRO CRACKING LUBRICATING OIL MANUFACTURE CATALYTIC CRACKING VACUUM DISTILLATION ^SOUR « - ^*~GAS> TREAT (2) WASTE WATER SURFACE AND H STORM DRAINAGE i WASTE WATER TREATMENT COKING ^ —_ V/ASTE WATER C SOUR WATER _ = SOUR GAS COOLINO M TOWER BLOWDOWNi WASTE WeT .CLEAN WATER M X £ o* HYDROGEN SULFIDE (H2S) ------- NUMBER AND CAPACITY Of REFINERIES. BY STATES. AS OF JANUARY ), 1969 Number of R«fin«net Capacity (Btneb Per Day) TotaJ Total Operating Total Opera ung Shutdown Slate Operating Shutdown Operaltng and Shutdown Operating Shutdown and Shutdown Budding' and Building Alabama 5 1 6 27 870 6.500 34,170 0 34,370 Alaska I 0 \ 20.000 0 20.000 3.300 23.300 Arkansas 6 0 6 91 000 0 91.000 0 91,000 California 33 2 35 1.528.050 11300 1 J39.550 74 800 1.614 350 Colorado . 4 1 5 41.480 5 000 46.480 0 46.480 Delaware 1 0 1 140.000 0 140.000 0 140.000 Florida . 1 0 1 3.000 0 3.000 0 3.000 Georgia . 2 0 2 8.600 0 8.600 0 8.600 Hawaii 1 0 \ 15,000 0 35.000 0 35.000 1 Knots . . . 12 13 706.220 6.330 712.550 51.000 763,550 Indaai. ... 11 0 11 579.000 1.500 S80.500 0 580.500 ran— . .... 12 0 12 392,010 0 392.010 0 392.010 Kentucky ... 1 owHnna .... 4 0 4 129.000 0 129,000 10.000 139 000 17 0 17 1.191 150 1.000 1 192.150 49.000 1.241.150 Mjrytaad 2 0 2 20.000 0 20.000 0 20 000 MJrhfcan ... MouwMa 7 3 10 145 950 28.750 174,700 0 174.700 3 0 3 138 300 0 I3B 300 0 138 300 4 5 168 700 1.500 170 200 0 170.200 Missouri . . 1 0 1 83.000 0 83 000 0 83.000 Montana 9 2 11 125.500 5.550 131.050 1 000 132 050 o Nebraska 1 0 1 4.000 0 4 000 0 4000 Nevada 0 t 1 0 1 250 1.250 1,200 2.450 New Jersey 6 2 8 523.500 35 000 558 500 0 558,500 New Mexico 6 0 6 42 700 0 42 700 0 42 700 New York 2 0 2 79 000 0 79 000 6.000 85.000 North Dakota 2 0 2 54.100 900 55,000 0 55.000 Ohio 9 1 10 476,200 12.500 490.700 13.000 503.700 OUakooM 14 1 IS 449.300 900 450.200 0 450.200 Onyw I 0 1 12.000 0 12,000 0 12.000 PtORiylriaii 13 0 13 645 320 19 000 664 320 5.000 669,320 Rbodetrfaod 1 0 1 7.500 0 7,500 0 7.500 TeftMsaee • . . I 0 1 27,500 0 27 500 0 27.500 Texas 48 3 51 3 126.679 16300 3 143179 140.200 3.283379 Utafc 3 0 5 112.600 0 112.600 0 112,600 VvgtftM 1 0 1 43.600 0 43.600 0 43,600 Wirfmigiiia. .. s 0 5 219400 0 219.000 0 219.000 Waal Vnftta 2 0 2 9.200 0 9.200 0 9,200 Wbeonrin . . . 1 1 2 25 000 5.000 30 000 0 30.000 Wyog^ag 10 0 10 142.800 5.000 147.800 0 147.800 U. S. total 264 20 l84 11,575,629 I63£80 11.739,509 362.500* 12,102,0091 i "Bniidati** represents addrtionaJ capacity under construction at existing refineries. as well u raw plants being bwll 3 Tolab include 8.000 b/d refinery under comtrmuon in Arizona Authority Bureau of Mum, "Pttroteuro Refrnenes in the Dotted States " 4* 0* 3 a> 3 00 ------- hxrwoj' 45 REFINERIES DISTRIBUTION BY SIZE 1971 Refinery Capacity OOO'/B/CD* REFINERIES Per Cent Cum. Number of Total % CAPACITY 000's B/CD* Per Cent of Total Cum % Below 4 38 4 to 6 9 35 7 to 14. 9 37 MEDIAN 25 15 to 29. 9 40 30 to 49. 9 32 50 to 69. 9 17 70 to 99. 9 22 100 to 199 22 200 and up M_ 15 14 12 16 13 7 9 9 5 29 41 50 57 70 77 86 95 100 82 187 329 909 1306 970 1854 2940 4028 . 6 1. 5 2. 6 7 2 10. 4 7 7 14. 7 23. 3 32 0 2 1 4 7 8. 1 11 9 22 3 30. 0 44 7 68 0 100. 0 TOTAL MEAN 251 100% 100% 12605 50 100% 100% ~ Thousands of barrels per calendar day. Source: Oil and Gas Journal, 3/22/71, pp. 98ff Data as of 1/1/71 - with minor adjustments. Stephen SoLolL Oonip.ii ------- Exhibit 10 46 REFINERIES DISTRIBUTION BY SIZE 1966 Refinery Capacity OOO'/B/CD* REFINERIES Per Cent Cum. Number of Total % CAPACITY 000's Per Cent Cum B/CD* of Total % Below 4 53 4 to 6. 9 25 7 to 14. 9 35 MEDIAN 20 15 to 29. 9 46 30 to 49. 9 38 50 to 69. 9 15 70 to 99. 9 20 100 to 199 20 200 and up 6_ 20 10 14 17 15 6 8 8 2 20 30 44 50 61 76 82 90 98 100 111 122 371 1008 1512 860 1595 3018 1650 1. 1 1. 2 3 6 9. 8 14. 8 8 4 15. 6 29. 4 16. 1 1. 1 2. 3 5. 9 8. 7 15. 7 30. 5 38. 9 54 5 83 9 100. 0 TOTAL MEAN 258 100% 10247 40 100% ~ Thousands of barrels per calendar day Source: Oil and Gas Journal, 3/28/66, pp. 154ff Data as of 1/1/66 - with minor adjustments St ep lcn k SoLoiL & (j 'oinp.niN ------- 47 NUMBERS OF REFINERIES BY SIZE CLASSES 1966-1971 50 - I I 1966 EZ2 40 - CO Lil E Ui z u. UJ oc II. o a: UJ flD 30 - 20 - 10 - < 4 4 to 6.9 n 7 to 14.9 15 to 29.9 im 30 to 49.9 50 to 69.9 REFINERY CAPACITY 70 to 99.9 I 100 to 199.9 > 200 THOUSANDS OF BARRELS PER CALENDAR DAY ------- 48 Exhibit 12 8800 REFINERY CAPACITY BY SIZE CLASS 1966-1971 I 8000 § .OS 2800 si 55 HO. 6 !? -i £ UJ ^3 M 2000 I BOO 1000 800 JZbaJZ ill <4 4 to 6.9 7 to 14.9 15 to 29.9 30 to 49.9 50 to 69.9 CD 1966 wnxm\ 70 to 99.9 REFINERY CAPACITY THOUSAND BARRELS PER CALENDAR DAY ff 100 to 199.9 200 Stephen SoLolL tSk G Jompanv ------- 49 Exhibit I 3 EMPLOYMENT, EARNINGS AND PAYROLLS IN PETROLEUM AND ALL MANUFACTURING, 1964-1968 Production and Related Workers 1 Total Number of Number of Average Average Hours Average Employees ^ Workers Weekly Worked Hourly (Thousands) (Thousands) Earnings Weekly Earning1 YEAR ALL MANUFACTURING 1968 . . . 19,740 14,485 $122.51 40. 7 $3. 01 1967 ... 19,434 14,300 114. 90 40. 6 2. 83 1966 . . . 19,214 14,297 112. 34 41. 3 2. 72 1965 . . . \ . . . . 18,062 13,434 107. 53 41. 2 2.61 1964 , . . 17,274 12,781 102. 97 40. 7 2. 53 PETROLEUM REFINING 1968 . . 151 92 $166. 27 42 2 $3 94 1967 148 90 159. 09 42. 2 3. 77 1966 . ... 148 89 151.56 42. 1 3. 60 1965 148 89 145. 05 41. 8 3 47 1964 .... . . 150 90 139. 52 41. 4 3. 37 ^Includes non-salaried workers. ^Includes both salaried and non-salaried employees. Authority: Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Employment and Earnings. " Reprinted in Petroleum Facts & Figures, API, 1971, pp. 526. cplien SoLtLa & Con,| 1 k« ------- 50 Exhibit 14 AVERAGE OPERATING COSTS OF U. S. REFINERIES, 1965-1969 (Cents Per Barrel) TEL, Chemicals Purchased Total Purchased and Year Fuel Labor Power Supplies 19691 15. 8 47. 7 3. 8 24. 6 1968 . . . 15.5 46. 1 3. 9 25. 5 1967 ... 16. 3 46. 3 3. 8 26. 4 1966 ... 14.5 44. 0 3. 3 26. 8 1965 ... 13.2 44. 3 3. 5 24. 5 Main- tenance , Materials 7. 6 7. 3 7. 1 7. 0 6. 9 1969 • 1968 . 1967 . 1966 . 1965 . Insurance and Taxes 5. 4 5. 5 5. 2 5. 2 5. 1 Royalties or Research 9. 2 7. 7 6. 3 4. 8 4. 6 Obso- lescence and Improve- ments 1. 7 1.8 1.4 1. 3 1. 0 Interest on Capi- talization 11. 2 11.4 10. 9 10. 8 9. 4 Total Costs 137 134 1 33 127 122 * Preliminary. Authority: Wilbur L. Nelson, Petroleum Refinery Engineering Consultant Source: Petroleum Facts & Figures, API, 1971, p. 209. Stpnl>«" 'SoLol Ito ( 'oinooiiv ------- 51 RATE OF RETURN ON NET WORTH FOR PETROLEUM, MANUFACTURING, AND ALL INDUSTRY IN THE U. S. , 1964 - 1969 (Per Cent) A. All Petroleum Manufacturing All Year Industry Industry Industry 1969 12. 1 12 5 10. 4 1968 13. 1 13. 3 10. 9 1967 12.8 12. 6 10. 6 1966 12.6 14.2 11.3 1965 11.9 13. 9 11.1 1964 11.5 12. 6 10. 3 Source: First National City Bank, "Monthly Economic Letter," April. Reprinted in Petroleum Facts & Figures, API, 1971, pp. 513 Stephen SoLollta & ( Join jl.II ------- ESTIMATED INVESTMENT IN FIXED ASSETS BY THE U.S. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY, 1969 (As of December 31) Gross Per Cent Net Per Cent Investment of Investment of (Thousands of Dollars) Total (Thousands of Dollars) Total Production: Crude oil and natural gas $49,900,000 53.6 $24,800,000 51.3 Natural gasoline and cycling plants 3, 025, 000 3. 2 1.560. 000 3. 2 Total production 59, 925,000 56.8 26, 360,000 54.5 Transportation: Pipelines 6,175,000 6. 7 3, 350,000 6.9 Marine 1, 150, 000 1.2 515,000 1.1 Tank cars and motor transport. . . 675,000 . 7 325,000 . 7 Total transportation 8,000,000 8.6 4, 190,000 8.7 C/T ro Manufacturing: SI Refineries 11, 925,000 12.8 5,075,000 10.5 j Chemical plants 6,475.000 7. 0 3.750.000 7. 8 n Total manufacturing 18,400,000 19.8 8,825,000 18.3 Marketing 11,550,000 12.4 7,600,000 15.7 Other. 2.250.000 2. 4 1. 350.000 2. 8 Grand total $93, 125,000 100. 0 $48,325,000 100.0 W X 11 5 Gross investment minus accumulated reserves for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. g. Authority: Energy Economics Department, The Chase Manhattan Bank. ui P> ------- ESTIMATED FINANCIAL DATA FOR THE U.S. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY, 1965-1969 (Thousands of Dollars) 1969 Production: Crude oil and natural gas $ 4, 525, 000 Natural gasoline and cycling plants . 225, 000 Total production 4, 750, 000 T rans po rtation: Pipelines 300, 000 Marine 100,000 Tank cars and motor transport . . 50. 000 Total transportation 450, 000 Manufacturing: Refineries 950, 000 Chemical plants 575. 000 Total manufacturing 1,525,000 Marketing 1,250,000 Other 200. 000 Total capital expenditures . . . .$ 8,175,000 1968 1967 Capital Expenditures $ 4,675,000 250.000 4,925,000 425,000 50,000 35.000 510,000 800,000 650.000 1,450,000 1, 150,000 315.000 $ 3,750,000 275.000 4,025,000 360,000 40,000 40.000 440,000 775,000 825.000 1, 600, 000 1, 250,000 335.000 1966 $ 3,600,000 170.000 3,770, 000 275,000 25,000 60.000 360,000 775,000 800.000 1, 575,000 1,100,000 320.000 1965 $ 3,600,000 160.000 3, 760, 000 225,000 40,000 35.000 300,000 600,000 £ 525.000 1, 125,000 1,000,000 190.000 $ 8,350,000 $ 7,650, 000 $ 7,125,000 $ 6,375,000 W x E & llncluties-tcost of drilling dry holes, and lease acquisitions but excludes exploration expenses and lease rentals charged to o* income ta^cjpunt. Includes offshore lease purchases: 1968, $1.5 billion; 1967, $560 million; 1966, $260 million; 1965, ~ $100 muu«as? in cr (Cont'd ) ------- ESTIMATED FINANCIAL DATA FOR THE U.S. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY, 1965-1969 (Thousands of Dollars) 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 Gross Assets Employed* Current assets $ 18,850,000 $ 18,250,000 $ 17,000,000 $ 15,750,000 $ 14,300,000 Fixed assets 93, 125,000 88,575,000 83,800,000 79,175, 000 75, 000,000 Other assets 3. 000. 000 2, 750, 000 1. 800, 000 1, 800, 000 1, 600, 000 Total gross assets employed . . $114,975,000 $109,575,000 $102,600,000 $ 96,725,000 $ 90,900,000 *As of December 31. cn Authority: Energy Economics Department, The Chase Manhattan Bank. ^ Reprinted in Petroleum Facts & Figures, 1971, pp. 508/9. O o a M X tr CL i_> . Ul O" ------- ESTIMATED FINANCIAL DATA FOR THE U.S. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY, 1965-1969 (Thousands of Dollars) (Cont'd ) 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 Gross Investment In Fixed Assets 1 GO (t s— a s cn o r Si Production: Crude oil and natural gas^ . . $ 49, 900, 000 Natural gasoline and cycling plants . 3. 025. 000 Total production 52, 925,000 Transportation: Pipelines ... 6, 175,000 Marine 1, 150,000 Tank cars and motor transport . . . 675. 000 Total transportation ... 8, 000, 000 Manufacturing: Refineries ... 11,925,000 Chemical plants .... 6, 475, 000 Total manufacturing .... 18,400,000 Marketing 11,550,000 Other 2,251, 000 Total gross investment in fixed assets $ 93, 125, 000 $ 47, 875, 000 2.875.000 50,750,000 5, 960, 000 1,115,000 650.000 7, 725, 000 11, 200,000 6. 050.000 17, 250,000 10, 700, 000 2.150.000 $ 45,915,000 2.510.000 48,425,000 5, 610,000 1,115,000 625.000 7,350,000 10,525,000 5, 550.000 16,075,000 10,000,000 1.950.000 $ 44, 265,000 2. 335.000 46, 600,000 5, 300,000 1, 100,000 600.000 7,000,000 9.875,000 4. 800.000 14, 675,000 9,200,000 1.700.000 $ 88,575,000 $ 83,800,000 $ 79,175,000 $ 42,500,000 2.200.000 44,700,000 5,100,000 1, 100, 000 550.000 6.750,000 9,525,000 3.975.000 13,500,000 8,550,000 1.500.000 $ 75,000,000 cn cn - c 5 w D As of December 31 (Cont'd.) fr n r § F CL ~ * i < ------- 56 Exhibit lo ESTIMATED PETROLEUM REFINING CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS 1972 - 1951 Barrel/Day Billion $ Refinery capacity, 1/1/72 13,070,000 (Oil & Gas Journal, 3/22/71) Growth in capacity will be 3i?$/yr. (estimated) Resultant forecast capacity, 1/62 13,430,000 Increase in capacity, 1972/19&1 5,3°0,000 Unit capital cost of new capacity is about $1400 per barrel per day (Oil Daily, October 12, 1971) Total capital cost for new capacity, 1972/1961 7.5 Avera-e capacity during the decade 15,750,000 Unit capital cost to replace and modernize existing capacity is $50/yr. per bbl/a. (from data published by W. L. Nelson in Oil & Gas Journal) Total capital cost for maintaining 0 c::istinr capacity, 1972/1961 <•' Total capital cost to conform to environmental standards in refinery operations 1972/197^ 0.9 (Environmental Protection Arency, Oct. 1971) 1977/1921 C.l Total cost to convert to no/low lead rasoline, 1972/1961 (SPA 3-0 Total cost to convert to low sulfu] fuels, 1972/1961 (EPA) 2.0 Total Capital Requirement $21.4 Stephen Sohollcn OonijMnv ------- |