WORKING PAPER NO. 15
DESCHUTES RIVER BASIN (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
February 28, 1962
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control Prog
Pacific Northwest

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DESCHUTES RIVER BASIN (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
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Table of Contents
I.	Introduction
A.	Purpose of This Analysis
B.	Definition of the Area
C.	Study Period
D.	Limitations of This Analysis
II.	Present Econony of the Basin
A.	Population
B.	Industry
III.	Estimated Future Grovrth
A.	Factors Influencing Future Growth
B.	Estimate of Future Population
C.	Future Land Use
Prepared by: Economics Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control Program,
Pacific Northwest
February 28, 1962

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February 28, 1962
DESCHUTES RIVER BASIN (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
I.	Introduction
A.	Purpose of This Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of
the economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
B.	Definition of the Area
The Deschutes River Basin, for purposes of this study, is defined
to include all of Jefferson, Crook and Deschutes Counties, all of Wasco
County except for the northwest portion containing The Dalles, the western
portion of Sherman County, and a small area in the north of Klamath County.
C.	Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an
interim point at 1980.
D.	Limitations of This Analysis
Two limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is
intended only as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject
area's growth. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin
Project for VJater Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will
be made on an industry-by-industry basis of the growth potential in the
various sub-basins. At that time, this preliminary estimate will be
reviewed, and revised if necessary.
The second limitation is that thib study js intended for use
particularly in assessing future w&ter needs. Emphasis has been placed
on the analysis of those industries which make heavy damands upon the
water resource. Other industries have been considered only insofar as
they may have a significant effect on future population. For this reason,
this study is not submitted as a detailed industrial forecast.
II.	Present Economy of the Basin
A. Population
Estimated population in the Deschutes River Basin is shown in
Table 1. During the period 1540-60, the Basin's population grew more
rapidly than the rest of Eastern Oregon, although its growth rate was

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considerably below that for the State of Oregon as a whole. Most of the
growth came during the 1940-50 decade; population growth in the Basin
during the last 10 years was only seven percent.
Table 1
ESTIMATED POPULATION IN THE DESCHUTES RIVER BASIN
Area
Population,in thousands,
1950 1960^
1940
1S50
as 7. of
1940
1960
as 7> of
1950
i960
as % of
1940
Crook County, total
Deschutes County, toLal
Jefferson County, total
Klamath County, portion
Sherman County, portion
Wasco County, portion
5.5
18.6
2.0
1.1
0.4
2.9
9.0
21.8
5.5
1.1
0.5
3.0
9.4
23.1
7.1
1.1
0.5
2.4
TOTAL, DESCHUTES BASIN
30.5
40.9
43.6
134
107
143
Remainder of Eastern Oregon
ISO.4
206.5
221.6
114
107
123
Oregon, State total
1089.7
1521.3
1768.7
140
116
162
3 /
— This esLimale differs slightly from a I960 population estimate for the
Deschutes River Basin given in the State Water Resources Board's Deschutes
River Basin report, January 1961, page 4, vhich study defines the Basin to
include a portion of Sherman County along the Columbia River which is out-
side the physical boundaries of the Deschutes Basin. The population of the
additional portion of Sherman County included in the SWRB report is about
700. The estimate in Table 1 for the portion of Wasco County in the
Deschutes River Basin is slightly higher than that in the SWRB report.
The ten incorporated communities in the Basin are listed in Table 2,
with their populations at the time of recent censuses. The total popula-
tion of these ten incorporated places was 50 percent of total Basin popu-
lation in 1960, the same percentage as in 1950 and 1940. It would appear
that the urban-ward shift of population typical of other Basins has not
been experienced in thr> Deschutes Basin. This may partly be due to a
failure of the cities here to annex growing areas around them. If the
urbanized but unincorporated area called "Prineville Southeast", referred
to in footnote "b" of Table 2, were included with Prineville, the percent-
age of Basin population living in the ten cities would be 53 in 1960.
The absence of a significant urban-ward trend may also be related to the
extensive-type agricultural economy of this area.

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The principal cities in the Basin experienced considerable growth
during the 1940-50 decade, but their growth during the last ten-year
period was relatively slow. As shown in Table 2, the ten cities in the
Basin together increased only 6 percent in population during the period
1350-60, approximately paralleling the 7 percent population increase in
the Basin as a whole during that period.
The three principal cities in the Basin (Bend, Redmond and
Prineville) contain 43 percent of Rasin population and, if suburban areas
immediately adjacent to them are included, about half the entire Basin's
inhabitants are in these three comnunities.
Table 2
POPULATION IN INCORPORATED PLACES IN THE DESCHUTES BASIN


P" o p
u 1 a t i
o n
1960 as 7o
City
County
1940
1950
1960
of 1950
Antelope
Wasco
90
60
46
77
Bend
Deschutes
10,021
11,409
11,936
105
Culver
Jefferson
(a)
301
301
100
Madras
Jefferson
412
1,258
1,515
120
Maupin
Was co
267
312
381
122
Metolius
Jefferson
40
157
270
172
Prineville
Crook
2,358
3,233
3,263 (b)
101
Redmond
Deschutes
1,876
2,956
3,340
113
Shaniko
Wasco
55
61
39
64
Sisters
Deschutes
(a)
723
602
83
Total, Ten
cities
15,119
20,470
21,693
106
(a)	Unincorporated in 1940, no data available.
(b)	Excludes "Trineville Southeast", a built-up area adjacent to Prineville
but outside its corporate limits, and containing 1299 persons in 1960.
It was not enumerated separately in 1950, since its population then was
less than 1000.
In addition to the ten incorporated places, there are about 60
identifiable communities that are unincorporated. With the exception of
"Prineville Southeast", a suburb of Prineville, they are all quite small,
most of them having a population of less than 100.

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B. Industry
The economy of the Deschutes River Basin is heavily dependent
upon agriculture and upon lumber and wood products manufacturing. Table 3
shovjs the employment pattern in Crook, Daschut.es and Jefferson Counties
in 1950. Employment data are not available for portions of counties, but
it is believed that the industrial and employment pattern in the portions
of Klamath, Sherman and Wasco Counties lying in the Deschutes River Basin
are similar to the rest of the Basin. About SO percent of Basin population
is in the three counties totalled in Table 3. The adjacent portions of
Klamath, Sherman and Wasco Counties are similar geographically to the
rest of the Basin and contain no large communities. For these reasons,
it is assumed that Table 3 reflects accurately the employment pattern in
the entire Basin as of 1950. Data are not yet available from the 1960
census, but on the basis of statistics from the State Department of Employ-
ment, it appears that the employment pattern has not changed significantly
since 1950.
Nearly half of the entire labor force in the Basin is in agri-
culture and lumber and wood products manufacturing. The rest of the labor
force is in service industries, so that the economic base rests almost
wholly on agriculture and lumber and v7ood products manufacturing.
Table 3
EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, IN CROOK, JEFFERSON AND DESCHUTES COUNTIES, 1S50
(Data for Employed Civilian Labor Force)
Total Population
36,339
Total Employment
14,064
Agriculture
2,850
Forestry and fisheries
142
Mining
72
Manufacturing, TOTAL
3,526
Lumber, wood products
3,103
Food and kindred
141
Printing and publishing
126
All other
156
Construction
938
Services
6,363
Industry not reported
173
Table 4 shows the relative specialization in the Deschutes River
Basin economy by comparing the distribution of the labor force there with
the distribution in the Portland Region, of which it is a part. The table
illustrates the Deschutes River Basin's heavy concentration in agriculture
and lumber and wood products manufacturing, and its dependence upon the
Portland Metropolitan Area for many services.

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Principal agricultural products are vheat, potatoes, hay, seeds,
and beef and milk cattle.
Table 4
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY PER 1000 OF TOTAL POPULATION, 1950
(Data for Employed Civilian Labor Force)
Deschutes	Portland
Industry	Basinl/	Region-'
Total Employed Labor Force
per 1000 population
387.0
376.1
Agriculture
78.4
44.7
Forestry and fisheries
3.9
2.2
Mining
2.0
1.0
Manufacturing, TOTAL
97.0
89.4
Lumber, wood products
85.4
53.5
Food and kindred
3.9
8.4
Printing, publishing
3.5
4.8
All other manufacturing
4.2
22.7
Construction
25.8
27.9
Services
17-5.1
205.7
Industry not reported
*. 8
5.2
1/Distribution based on figures for Crook, Jefferson and
Deschutes Counties.
2/Includes all of Oregon plus five counties in southwestern
Washington.
Ill. Estimated Future Gro'.rth
A. Factors Influencing Future Growth.
During the past decade, little diversification occurred in the
economy of the Deschutes River Basin, and the economic base remained
almost exclusively dependent upon agricullure and lumber and wood products
manufacturing. The Dalles, where some diversified manufacturing has
grown up, is outside this Basin, and such industrial development along the
Columbia River is not expected to have any major impact on the Deschutes
Basin. The future of the Basin is expected to continue to be tied closely
to agriculture and tinber-based industries. The only ether major activity
with potential growth would appear to be service employment based on
recreation.

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The principal industry in the Basin, in terras of employment, is
lumber and wood products manufacturing. The outlook for employment in
this industry depends on (1) maintaining the timber harvest, and (2) devel-
oping secondary manufacturing, that is, going beyond sawnill products to
fabrication of doors, mouldings, panelling and other finished products
embodying additional labor.
The outlook for maintaining or increasing the timber harvest is
complicated by the fact, as shown in Table 5, that about one-third of
the forested land in the Basin is now in juniper, which has not heretofore
been of much commercial use. How much employment could be built upon a
sustained-yield harvesting of that species is problematical.
Table 5
FOREST ACREAGE IN PRINCIPAL TREE SPECIES
IN CROOK, DESCHUTES AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES-'
(Data in thousands of acres)
Total Forest Ponderosa Lodgepole Douglas Juniper Other
	Land	Pine	Pine	Fir		
2,918	1,292	230	34	1,052 310
"^Source: State Water Resources Board, Deschutes Rjver Basin, January
1961, p. 6.
The principal commercial species is ponderosa pine. A major
part of this timber is on U. S. Forest Service land, but there are also
a few large private holdings. Harvesting of trees on the Forest Service
land is approximately at its sustained yield maximum. The supply of
timber from private land may decline in the future and competition is
likely to be severe for logs. The general trend towards reduction in the
number of mills and the consolidation of smaller operations with larger,
more efficient plants is likely to be even more marked in this Basin than
in other parts of the State, because of the competition for logs. This
will probably mean an acceleration of the historic trend of rising pro»
ductivity per worker, so that, even if total lumber output should increase
moderately, there might be no increase in employment.
Employment in wood products manufacturing could increase if
additional secondary fabrication is developed in the Basin. An example
would be the establishment of a pulp or paper mill in the Bend area.
It appears that the raw materials necessary to such a plant are available.
However, there is considerable doubt whether the unappropriated water
available in the Basin would be adequate to support such a plant. An

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alternative use of such raw materials would be to ship them down to the
Columbia River or across the Cascades, for processing at large plants
outside the Basin.
On balance, it appears that the various factors outlined abovfe
may tend to offset each other, so that total employment in lumber and uood
products manufacturing in the Basin may remain at about its present level
for the foreseeable future. Vigorous development of secondary products
could lead to some increase in employment.
The outlook for growth in the other principal industry in the
Basin, agriculture, is somewhat more favorable than that for the timber-
based industries. This is due to the possible increases in irrigation.
However, though it is anticipated that agricultural production will
increase, that v/i31 not be accompanied by a proportionate increase in
agricultural employment, due to rising productivity per worker in agri=«
culture.
In other areas, where the advent of irrigation has made possible
the cultivation of heretofore unused acres, a large population increase
has often resulted. In the Deschutes Basin, however, it appears that
additional irrigation is likely to be used not to increas.e acreage but to
firm up the water supply on acreage now receiving less than its full
water needs. This will tend to increase productivity per acre and pro-
ductivity per worker rather than increase the number of persons working
in agriculture.
While there is still some unappropriated water in the Basin, it
is not certain how much of it will be available to agriculture. The
principal increase in water for irrigation will come through increased
efficiency in irrigation use. At present, the loss of water through the
porous soil is abnormally high.
Agricultural output will increase in the Basin, but this is not
expected to lead to development of significant employment in food proces-
sing. Aside from about 100 workers in "food and kindred" manufacturing
in Bend, there is very little food processing in the Basin at the present
time. As in the case of wood producls manufacturing, the trend in food
processing is towards fewer, larger, more efficient plants. Any new
plants in this Basin would have to compete with large, existing plants out-
side the Basin. It seems likely that most of the agricultural produce of
the Basin will continue to be shipped outside the Basin without local
processing.
If the maximum size of individual acreage holdings in irrigation
projects is limited by government policy, this would result in some

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increase in the number of persons working In agriculture, though it might
have the opposite effect on productivity. In general, it appears that
total employment in agriculture and related activities in the Basin as a
whole is likely lo remain at its present level or increase only moderately.
Employment in recreation-based service indjstries is expected to
increase moderately in the future.
B. Estimated Future Population.
Population in the Deschutes River Basin grew during the period
1940-50 at a rate of 3 percent per year, below the rate for the State as
a whole of 3.4 percent but sfcill a high rate of increase. However, that
high growth was largely a result of a rapid expansion of the lumber and
wood products industry which is not likely to be repeated in the future.
Growth in the Basin during the period 1950-60 was only 0.6 percent per
year, compared with a growth rate in the State as a whole during the same
period of 1.5 percent per year. The relationship of growth in the
Deschutes River Basin to growth in the State as a whole during this latter
decade is likely to be typical of the future. On this basis, and in
terms of preliminary estimates of future growth in State population
(2.0 percent for 1960-80, 1.7 percent for 1S80-2000, and 1.5 percent for
2000-2010), future population in the Deschutes River B^isin might be
expected to grow as follows:
Table 6
ESTIMATED FUTURE POPULATION OF THE DESCHUTES RIVER BASIN
(Population in thousands; rate of growth in % per year)
1960 1960-30 1980 1980-2000 2000 2000-2010 2010
Pop¦	Rate Pop¦	Rate	Pop.	Rate	Pop.
43.6 0.8% 51.3 0.7% 58.9 0.6% 62.6
Table 7 shows a preliminary appraisal of the distribution of
estimated future population between urban and rural areas and among the
various cities of the Basin, assuming the growth rates shown in that table.
The portion of Basin population in incorporated places has re-
mained constant, at half of total population, for the past 20 years. For
purposes of this preliminary analysis, it is assumed that there will be
a gradual, small increase in the portion of total population in incorpor-
ated places. On the basis of the assumptions made in Table 7, the portion
of Basin population in urban places would rise to 52 percent in 1980, 54
percent in 2000, and 56 percent in 2010.

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Host rapid population growth in the Basin in the future is
likely to be in the Deschutes Valley in and around Bend and Redmond. As
the major city in the Basin, Bend is likely to attract a large share of
additional population. Bend is also strategically located in relation to
present and potential recreation areas. The area around Bend and Redmond
would benefit from irrigation made possible by a proposed dam aL Benham
Falls. Both Bend and Redmond are located on Che major north-south rail
and highway facilities.
Madras grew rapidly during the 1940-60 period, due to an increase in
irrigation in that vicinity. The major impact of increased irrigation is
nov? believed to be past, and the economy is likely to stabilize at the
present level, v?ith only a small rate of increase.
Potential consolidation of pine lumber mills at Prineville could
limit employment growth there. Big Prairie dam, on the upper Crooked
River, might have provided increased irrigation for the area around
Prineville, but this dam was found economically unfeasible.
Table 7
FUTURE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, DESCHUTES RIVER BASIN
(Population in thousands; growth rate is % per year)

1960
1960-80
1980
1980-2000
2000
2000-10
2010
Area
Pop.
Rate
Pop.
Rate
Pop.
Rate
?°P-
TOTAL, Deschutes Basin
43.6
0.8%
51.3
0.77.
58.9
0.6%
62 .6
Rural (a)
21.9
0.6
24.7
0.4
26.8
0.3
27.8
Ten Incor. Areas,TOTAL
21.7
1.0
26.6
0.9
32.1
0.3
34.8
Bend
11.9
1.4
15.7
1.2
19.9
1.0
22.0
Redmond
3.3
1.0
4.0
0.9
4.8
0.8
5.2
Prineville
3.3
0.3
3.5
0.3
3.7
0.3
3.8
Madras
1.5
0.3
1.7
0.3
1.9
0.3
2.0
Six other cities
1.7
0.1
1.7
0.1
1.8
0.1
1.8
(a) Includes all population outside the ten incorporated municipalities.
C. Future Land Use
According to a survey in 1S60 made for the U. S. Soil Conservation
Service, not much change in land use is anticipated in the Basin during the

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next fifteen years. Present and future land use, as estimated in that
survey, are shown in Table 8. For purposes of this preliminary analysis,
it is assumed that the land use pattern reflected by Table 8 will continue
for the entire study period.
Table 8
PRESENT AND ESTIMATED FUTURE LAND USE
CROOK, DESCHUTES AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES
Acres, thousands
Type of Land use
1960
1973
Federal—'''
2,612
2,612
Cropland
260
260
Pasture and range
1,016
1,046
Forest and woodland
1,00S
S97
All other
	85
67
Total 3-county acreage
4,9S2
4,982
—^ Includes U. S. Forest Service, B. L. M.,
and Bureau of Indian Affairs.

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