WORKING PAPER NO. COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT For Water Supply and Water Quaiitv Management SOUTH YAMHILL RIVER BASIN PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010 DATE: February 23, 1962 Prepared by EES Reviewed by Approved by i % DISTRIBUTION Project Staff Cooperating Agencies General U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE Public Health Service Region IX Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control 570 Pittock Block Portland 5, Oregon ------- This working paper contains preliminary data and in£ormation primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and should not be considered as final. ------- SOUTH YAMHILL RIVER BASIN PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010 Table of Contents I. Introduction A. Purpose of this analysis B. Definition of the araa C. Study period D. Limitations of this analysis II. Present economy of the basin A. Population B. Industries III. Estimated future growth A. Possibilities for growth B. Estimate of future population Prepared by: Economic Studies Group Water Supply and Pollution Control Program, Pacific Northwest February 23, 1962 ------- February 23, 1962 SOUTH YAMHILL RIVER BASIN PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010 I. Introduction A. Purpose of This Analysis This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area. B. Definition of the Area The South Yamhill River Basin includes the southern half of Yamhill County and the northern third of Polk County, in Oregon. C. Study Period The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim point at 1980. D. Limitations of This Analysis Two limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is intended only as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject area's growth. Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin Project for Water Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will be made on an industry-by-industry basis of the growth potential in the various sub-basins. At that time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and revised if necessary. The second limitation is that this study is intended for use particularly in assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been placed on the analysis of those industries which make heavy demands upon the water resource. Other industries have been considered only insofar as they may have a significant effect on future population. For this reason, this study is not submitted as a detailed Industrial forecast. II. Present Economy of the Basin A. Population Estimated population in the South Yamhill River Basin is shown in Table 1. Its population declined slightly during the 1950-60 decade. Population in the Basin increased during the 1940-50 decade, although the rate of increase was below that for the State at large. For the ------- 2 20-year period 1940-60, the rate of population increase in the 3asin was significantly less than in the State. Population changes in the subject Basin have closely paralleled those for Polk and Yamhill Counties as a whole. Table 1 . . ESTIMATED POPULATION IN THE SOUTH YAMHILL RIVER BASIN1' Change P o p u 1 a t ion 1950 1960 1960 (in thousands) as % of as 7. of as % c Area 1940 1950 1960 1940 1950 1940 So. Yamhill R. Basin, TOTAL. .. 15.3 19.9 19.5 130 98 127 Portion in Polk County 3.5 3.8 3.5 109 92 100 Portion in Yamhill County 11.8 16.1 16.0 136 99 136 Polk + Yamhill Co., TOTAL 46.3 59.8 59.0 129 99 127 Oregon, TOTAL 1089.7 1521.3 1768.7 140 116 162 —Discrepancies between physical Basin boundary, 1960 Census Division boundaries, and precinct boundaries used in 1940 and 1950 have been esti- mated from USGS maps. There are only four incorporated communities in the Basin. All are in Yamhill County, with the exception of a small portion of the City of Willamina, which extends into Polk County. Their populations are shown in Table 2. There are no sizeable unincorporated communities. Table 2 POPULATION IN CITIES IN THE SOUTH YAMHILL RIVER BASIN Chang er^ Pop u 1 a t i o n 1950 1960 I960 as % of as % of as % < Community 1940 1950 1960 1940 1950 1940 Amity 545 672 620 123 92 114 McMinnville 3706 6635 7656 179 115 207 Sheridan 1294 1922 1763 149 92 136 Willamina 677 1082 960 159 89 142 TOTAL 6222 10311 10999 165 107 176 •i^An unidentifiable but relatively small portion of population growth was a result of annexation of contiguous areas. ------- 3 A comparison of Tables 1 and 2 shows that the four cities represented 56 percent of total Basin population in 1960 and that this proportion has been increasing over the years. In 1950, 52 percent of Basin population was in the four cities and in 1940, 41 percent. McMinnville, which alone represented 39 percent of total Basin population in 1960, has shown a relatively strong growth trend. Its population increased during the 1950-60 decade at a rate about equal to the growth of the State, even though the other three cities and the South Yamhill Basin as a whole were declining in population. Nearly all of the population increase in the Basin over the 20-year period 1940-60 occurred in McMinnville, which added about 4,000 persons while the net increase in all the rest of the Basin was only about 200. The other three cities added 800 and there was a decrease of 600 in the rural population. This period included the decade of the 1940's, however, when there was an exceptionally rapid expansion in the lumber and wood products industries in the area. During the decade 1950-60, McMinnville added about 1,100 population; the other three cities lost about 400; and rural population declined about 1,100, making a decline of 400 for the Basin as a whole during the decade. B. Industries Data on employment by industry are not available for smaller units than counties. However, the employment pattern in the Basin is believed to approximate closely that in the combined two-county area of Polk and Yamhill Counties. Some slight discrepancy may arise from the fact that West Salem is located in the portion of Polk County outside the South Yamhill River Basin, which would make service industry employment relatively more important in the two-county area than in the subject"Basin. The location of the Oregon College of Education at Monmouth, in the por- tion of Polk County outside the South Yamhill River Basin also tends to increase service employment, but this is balanced by the location of Llnfield College at McMinnville, within the subject Basin. One indication that the economy of the subject Basin is quite similar to that of the two- county area as a whole is that the population rates of growth and decline in the respective areas during the past two decades have been almost identical. Table 3 shows employment by industry in the two-county area, based on the U. S. Census of April 1950. It is assumed that the distribution of employment in the subject Basin follows the same proportions as that shown in Table 3. ------- 4 Table 3 EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY, IN POLK AND YAMHILL COUNTIES, 1950 Total Population 59,801 Total Employed Civilian Labor Force 21,556 Agriculture 5,392 Forestry and fisheries 35 Mining 87 Manufacturing, TOTAL 5,553 Lumber and wood products 4,183 Food and kindred 508 All other manufacturing 862 Construction 1,139 Services 9,350 Table 4 shows the relative specialization in the South Yamhill River Basin economy by comparing the distribution of the labor force there with the distribution in the Portland Region, in which the subject Basin is located. Data are for 1950 but they are still broadly indicative. The subject Basin has above average employment, relative to the Portland Region, in lumber and wood products manufacturing and in agriculture, and relatively less employment in the service industries. Polk and Yamhill Counties rely for many service functions on the Portland Metropolitan Area. Table 4 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY PER 1,000 OF TOTAL POPULATION, 1950 South Yamhill Portland . Industry River Basin^' Region^ Total Employed Civilian Labor Force per 1,000 population 360.5 376.0 Agriculture 90.2 44.7 Forestry and fisheries 0.6 2.2 Mining 1.5 1.0 Manufacturing, TOTAL 92.8 89.4 Lumber and wood products 69.9 53.5 Food and kindred 8.5 8.4 All other manufacturing 14.4 27.5 Construction 19.0 27.9 Services^' 156.4 210.8 A/Distribution based on figures for Polk and Yamhill Counties as a whole, ^/includes all of Oregon plus five counties of southwestern Washington, ^/includes "Industry not reported" classification, representing less than one percent of labor force. ------- 5 III. Estimated Future Growth A. Possibilities for Growth In 1950, the economic base of the South Yamhill River Basin was heavily dependent upon agriculture and lumber and wood products manufac- turing. Data from the 1960 Census are not yet available, but figures for jobs covered by unemployment compensation ?s of April, 1960, indicate that, during the 1950-60 decade, there was a sizeable drop in employment in lumber and wood products manufacturing in the Basin. In the future, timber will continue to be an important resource in the Basin. It is assumed that the timber harvest in the Basin is now at a level which will be maintained in the future. Inroads into forest acreage, as a result of construction of highways, power transmission lines and dams, will tend to be offset by improvements in yield. However, even though the total harvest in the future may remain the same as at present, an increasing proportion of the logs may go to large mills outside this Basin. There has been a trend of consolidation of small mills with larger, more efficient ones, and this is likely to continue. This tendency is facilitated by the increase in the length of the economically acceptable haul for logs from forest to mill. On the other hand, even if fewer logs remain for use in the Basin, employment there may not drop proportionately. This is because secondary manufacturing and new products are increasing the number of jobs which can be supported on a given amount of raw log resource. However, a trend tending to reduce employment is increasing output per worker, a trend which is likely to continue. Many of the foregoing factors tend to offset each other. In the case of the South Yamhill Basin, it is anticipated that the negative factors will probably cancel the factors making for growth in employment, so that no sizeable increase in employment in lumber and wood products manufacturing seems likely. Employment in the Basin's other major Industry, agriculture, has also felt the effects of Increasing productivity per worker. During the period 1954 to 1959, the number of farms in Yamhill and Polk Counties com" bined declined from 3,900 to 3,500, and there was a substantial drop in the number of persons employed In agriculture, even though the total value of farm products sold increased during the period. This trend is expected to continue, though at a less dramatic rate, so that any increases in agricultural acreage and production that are feasible in the Basin are likely to be accomplished without additional farm labor. While employment in agriculture and in lumber and wood products manu- facturing declined during the 1950=60 decade, employment in "Food and kindred" manufacturing and in the "all other 11 manufacturing category increased moderately in the Basin. Future growth in the Basin will depend on this sort of diversification. ------- 6 Diversification of the economy of the Basin is likely to be centered around McMinnville, the only part of the Basin to show any sub- stantial growth in recent years. McMinnville derives its growth impetus from the fact that it is far enough from Portland to be able to support independent service industries, from the location there of Linfield College and its physics research laboratory, and from its function as county seat. Several small manufacturing firms have located at McMinnville recently and it appears likely this trend of moderate growth will continue. B. Estimate of Future Popultation Most of the growth in the subject Basin is likely to be concentrated at McMinnville, and, in this initial survey, it is assumed that that city's growth will be about the same as the growth of the State as a whole. Tenta- tive estimates for the State are for an annual growth rate of 2.0 percent from 1960-80, 1.7 percent from 1980-2000, and 1.5 percent from 2000-2010. For the portion of the Basin outside McMinnville, there appears to be little prospect of population growth exceeding half of the growth rate for the State as a whole, and it could be Cbn3iderably less than that. In this initial survey, it is assumed that growth in the Basin outside McMinnville will be at lightly less than half of the State average. Rates used in Table 5 for this portion of the Basin are 0.7 percent per year for 1960-80, 0.6 percent per year for 1980-2000, and 0.5 percent per year for 2000-2010. On the basis of the preceding assumptions, population increase in the subject Basin would be as follows: Table 5 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE SOUTH YAMHILL BASIN Population, thousands 1960 1980 2000 2010 McMinnville 7.7 11.4 16.0 18.6 Rest of Basin 11.8 13.6 15.3 16.1 TOTAL Basin 19.5 25.0 31.3 34.7 The annual growth rates for the Basin as a whole would be 1.3 percent during 1960-80, 1.1 percent during 1980-2000, and 1.0 percent during 2000-2010. ------- |