svEPA United States Environmental Protection Agency Air and Radiation (6602J) 402-R-92-007«3- November 1992 Economic Impact Analysis for Amend- ments to EPA's Radioactive Waste Standards (40 CFR Part 191) \ / ------- Economic Impact Analysis for Amendments to EPA's Radioactive Waste Standards (40 CFR Part 191) 402-R-92-007* November 1992 Office of Radiation Programs and Indoor Air Office of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 401 M Street, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20460 ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS Chanter Pace TABLE OF CONTENTS i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iii 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 OVERVIEW 1 1.2 REQUIREMENTS OF PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO 40 CFR PART 191 . . 2 1.3 SOURCES OF TRU WASTES 2 1.4 ANALYTICAL APPROACH 5 1.5 DATA SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS 6 1.6 DISCOUNTING OF COSTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS 6 1.7 CAVEATS ON MODELING 7 2 ANALYSIS OF COSTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS OF TRU DISPOSAL 8 2.1 TRU RISKS 8 2.1.1 Pathways 8 2.1.2 Understanding the Individual Dose 8 2.2 DEFINING THE OPTION 9 2.3 POPULATION AND INDIVIDUAL RISKS 9 2.4 COST OF TRU WASTES 10 2.4.1 General Elements • 10 2.4.2 Detailed Cost Components 12 2.4.2.1 Selection of Reference System Costs 12 2.4.2.2 Reference Costs 13 2.4.2.3 Design of Repository and Waste Packages for TRU Waste .... 17 2.5 COSTS OF DEMONSTRATING COMPLIANCE WITH INDIVIDUAL AND GROUNDWATER REQUIREMENTS 19 2.6 REAL IMPACT OF 40 CFR 191 AMENDMENTS 19 3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 21 3.1 VARYING THE DOSE LEVEL 21 3.2 1,000 VERSUS 10,000 YEAR PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE 21 4 GENERAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRU DISPOSAL 23 REFERENCES 25 ------- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Economic Impact: Analysis (EIA) assesses the economic impacts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed amendments and additions to 40 CFR Part 191, standards for disposal of radioactive wastes. These amendments are being proposed under the authority of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Land Withdrawal Act. They apply to spent reactor fuel, high-level radioactive wastes, and transuranic wastes. However, they do not apply to sites developed under Public Law 97-425, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. Under this act, the containment requirements portion of 40 CFR Part 191, previously vacated by the Court, were reinstated. With this reinstatement and the exclusion of sites as specified, the only sites to which the individual dose requirements and the groundwater protection requirements currently apply are for transuranic (TRU) waste disposal. This is the focus of this EIA. This analysis is unusual in that it does not contain a formal cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analysis of TRU waste disposal due to the nature of the standard. For a cost-effectiveness analysis it is necessary to have options to compare. For TRU disposal there are no disposal options to consider. A single geologic media, salt, is characterized and subject to environmental pathway modeling. There are no canisters or improved waste forms to examine. A cost-benefit analysis is not conducted due to the absence of any historically acceptable option for TRU disposal other than geologic*. This analysis can only assess the impact in absolute terms and relative to the containment standards reinstated by the legislation. In absolute terms, the cost of building a salt repository for TRU waste similar to the Waste Isolation Pilot Project is $2.3 billion (1990 dollars, present value). Current modeling suggests that over the 10,000 year period of the analysis, less than one statistical health effect would occur from the waste projected to be emplaced there. Because of the reinstatement of the containment portion of 40 CFR Part 191, there is no economic impact of this amendment for similar sites in a salt media. Modeling results for a TRU disposal site in a salt media indicate that when the containment requirements contained in 40 CFR Part 191 are met, individual dose requirements and ground water requirements are automatically met. In fact, for the TRU salt site modeled, groundwater and individual doses were zero. This results from the fact that the measures used to ensure that the containment requirements are met (and retard nuclides from entering the environment outside of the repository) also act to protect groundwater and the individual. There may, however, be small additional costs to demonstrate compliance with the standard. iii ------- Data are unavailable for the disposal of TRU in other types of media of serious interest: tuff, basalt, or granite. Because of this it is currently impossible to say with certainty whether or not the same circumstances apply for these other media and what the impact might be at alternate sites for the imposition of groundwater and individual dose requirements. iv ------- CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 OVERVIEW This Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) assesses the economic impacts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed amendments and additions to 40 CFR Part 191, standards for disposal of radioactive wastes. These amendments are being proposed under the authority of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Land Withdrawal Act. They apply to spent reactor fuel, high-level radioactive wastes, and to transuranic waste. However, they do not apply to sites developed under Public Law 97-425, the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982. Under this act, the containment requirements portion of the 40 CFR Part 191, previously vacated by the Court, were reinstated. With this reinstatement and the exclusion of sites as specified, the only sites to which the individual dose requirements and the groundwater protection requirements currently apply are for transuranic (TRU) waste disposal. This is the focus of this EIA. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for developing generally applicable environmental standards for the management and disposal of spent nuclear fuel, high-level waste, and TRU radioactive wastes. To this end, EPA promulgated standards on August 15, 1985 (40 CFR Part 191). In 1987, however, following a legal challenge, those parts of the standards dealing with disposal (Subpart B) were remanded to the Agency for further consideration by a U.S. Court of Appeals. Recently enacted legislation, known as the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Land Withdrawal Act, reinstates those portions of the 1985 disposal standard not specifically identified as faulty by the court. As such, the current amendment to 40 CFR Part 191 addresses both this legislation and issues raised by the court pertaining to individual and groundwater protection requirements. However, the proposed amendment does not apply to the characterization, licensing, construction, operation, or closure of any site .required to be characterized under the 1982 National Waste Policy Act. Thus, the impact of the amendments to 40 CFR Part 191 will primarily be to institute groundwater protection and individual dose requirements specific to TRU disposal. Due to the nature of this amendment, a Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) in accordance with Executive Order (EO) 12291 is not required. E.O. 12291 requires an RIA be done only in those cases of significant impact. Due to the reinstatement of the containment part of the standard it can be shown the amendments have no economic impact. The only planned TRU repository is in a salt media similar to the one discussed in the Background Information Document (BID) (EPA92C) and this EIA. 1 ------- The EIA is divided into four chapters. The remainder of this chapter briefly describes the groundwater and individual dose requirements, the processes by which the wastes are generated, the volumes of waste that must be disposed of, the assumptions on which the EIA is based, and the analytical approach to the estimation of the impacts of the proposed regulation. Chapter Two defines the options for disposing of wastes and describes the health and cost effects associated with each option. Chapter three is a brief sensitivity analysis on the level of the standard. Chapter four assesses the distributional impact of TRU disposal. 1.2 REQUIREMENTS OF PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO 40 CFR PART 191 The individual protection portions of the proposed amendments require that disposal systems for TRU waste shall be designed so that, for 10,000 years after disposal, undisturbed performance of the disposal system shall not cause the annual committed effective dose, received through all potential pathways from the disposal system, to any member of the public in the accessible environment, to exceed 15 millirems. The groundwater protection requirements proposed limit radioactive contamination in both public and private sources of drinking water to the Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL's) found in the Agency's proposed National Primary Drinking Water standards (40 CFR 141) over the same 10,000 year period. 1.3 SOURCES OF TRU WASTES Radioactive wastes are the result of governmental and commercial uses of nuclear fuel and material. For regulatory purposes EPA defines five main categories of radioactive wastes: spent nuclear fuel, high-level wastes other than spent fuel, TRU wastes, uranium mill tailings, and low-level wastes. Spent nuclear fuels, high-level wastes, and TRU wastes are the categories covered by the original 40 CFR Part 191. These amendments and additions to 40 CFR Part 191 are concerned primarily with TRU waste. Information on the sources and processes that produce these wastes, and on the current and projected quantities of the waste that must be disposed of, is provided in this section. TRU wastes, as defined in this rule, are materials containing elements having atomic numbers greater than 92 in concentrations greater than 100 nanocuries of alpha-emitting TRU isotopes, with half-lives greater than twenty years, per gram. Wastes resulting from reprocessing plutonium-bearing fuel or fabricating nuclear weapons consists of materials contaminated with radioactive isotopes of plutonium and americium, but also contains other TRU isotopes. The waste form varies widely, but most of the 2 ------- waste can be described as contaminated plastic, rags, equipment, tools, contaminated organic and inorganic sludges, wood, rubber, metal, cloth, paper, and laboratory trash. Exhibit 1 lists the 11 facilities that generate TRU wastes along with the volume of wastes stored at each site as of December 1990. Two of the facilities, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory East generate waste but ship it elsewhere for storage. Two additional facilities, the Mound Plant and the Rocky Flats Plant, have stored waste on site in the past, but will be sending future wastes to one of the seven other facilities listed, which have been designated by DOE as TRU waste storage sites (ORNL 91). Certain factors must be considered in interpreting Exhibit 1. First, early disposal practices did not include the current requirements for waste identification and categorization. As the efforts to identify and characterize the wastes continue, significant changes in estimates of the quantity of TRU waste are anticipated. Second, prior to 1970, all DOE-generated TRU wastes were disposed of in several landfill-type configurations at the facilities. This is the "buried" waste shown in Exhibit 1. After 1970, when the Atomic Energy Commission concluded that these wastes should have greater confinement, TRU wastes began to be placed in "retrievable" storage to enable eventual placement in a long-term storage facility (ORNL 91). At this time, only this retrievable waste is intended to be removed eventually to a DOE-designated storage site. Therefore, the projections in Exhibit 2 of wastes to be accumulated through 2013, which are intended to indicate the magnitude of the disposal problem, include only retrievably stored wastes. Total volumes of TRU waste, including buried waste, may be calculated by adding the estimated 191,000 cubic meters of total buried waste as of 1990 to each of the volumes in Exhibit 2. 3 ------- EXHIBIT 1 ACCUMULATED VOLUMES OF TRANSURANIC WASTES December 31, 1990 FACILITY BURIED WASTES (cubic meters) RETRIEVABLY STORED WASTES (cubic meters) Hanford Reservation 109,000 8,870 Idaho National Engineering Laboratory 57,100 37,500 Los Alamos National Laboratory 14,000 7,580 Oak Ridge National Laboratory 6,200 1,970 Sandia National Laboratory 3 — Savannah River Site 4,530 3,990 Mound Plant — 222 Rock Flats Plant — 915 Nevada Test Site — 587 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory1 — — Argonne National Laboratory1 — — TOTAL 190,833 60,634 Source: ORNL 91 'This facility generates transuranic wastes but ships them to other facilities for storage. 4 ------- EXHIBIT 2 PROJECTED TRANSURANIC WASTE INVENTORIES, 1990-2013 (by volume, radioactivity, and thermal power) YEAR VOLUME (cubic meters) RADIOACTIVITY (thousand curies) THERMAL POWER (thousand watts) 19902 60,608 4,779 74.57 1995 72,108 7,863 157.01 2000 83,608 9,774 228.62 2005 95,108 11,581 295.78 2010 106,608 13,291 358.96 2013 113,508 14,276 395.14 Source: DOE/Energy Information Administration projections as presented in ORNL 91, Table 3.1. 1.4 ANALYTICAL APPROACH This EIA provides an economic analysis of the long-term disposal of the current and projected quantities of TRU wastes described in section 1.3. The EIA takes a generic approach to the analysis of the costs, population risks,and individual exposures associated with disposal of TRU wastes. As such, the options described are not intended to characterize any particular planned or existing facility. However, certain costs and characteristics of existing facilities are used to analyze TRU disposal in a generic fashion. The current cost and risk assessments have used data generated by DOE as part of its effort to develop TRU repositories. The general approach to the analysis, basic assumptions, and data sources and limitations are discussed below. This EIA considers no options for disposal of TRU wastes. Emplacement only in a salt media is considered. Cost and especially performance data for alternate media as pertains to TRU disposal are not currently available, although they will be included in the next iteration of this EIA. Engineered barriers, which include any barrier devised by man that in some way retards the release of radioactive materials, fall into two categories: those associated with the longevity of the canisters that would be used to store the wastes, and those associated with the rate at which the waste would leak from the canister. As TRU waste is 2Data for 1990 are actual, not predicted, accumulations. 5 ------- disposed of without the use of special canisters or improved waste forms for a slower leach rate, costs and health effects associated with engineered barriers are not considered. Costs, projected statistical health effects, and individual exposures are developed only for the salt media as a method of disposing of TRU. These are based on an assumption that the repository will contain the amounts and types of TRU waste characterized in the BID. No cost-effectiveness analysis is performed as a consequence of the lack of options. For the EIA, it is recognized that the cost of disposal will be borne by the Federal government. However, the discussion of impacts of the cost of disposing of TRU wastes is qualitative and is mentioned in Chapter four. Quantification of the government impacts is not attempted because, given the small size of the waste disposal expenditures relative to the Federal budget, determination of the origin of the funds, their impacts, or their opportunity costs is not possible. This analysis is unusual in that is does not contain a formal cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analysis disposal due to the nature of the standard. For a cost-effectiveness analysis it is necessary to have options to compare. For TRU disposal there are no disposal options to consider. A single geologic media, salt, is characterized and subject to environmental pathway modeling. There are no canisters or improved waste forms to examine. A cost- benefit analysis is not conducted due to the absence of any historic acceptable option for TRU disposal other than geologic. This analysis can only assess the impact in absolute terms and relative to the containment standards reinstated by the legislation. 1.5 DATA SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS The cost data for TRU waste disposal used in this EIA were obtained from the DOE (Hunt 1) and are 1990 figures. More recent cost estimates were unavailable from DOE for disposal of TRU in salt. Data on population risks and individual exposures are from modeling presented in the BID. Details on the model are provided in Chapter Two. 1.6 DISCOUNTING OF COSTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS All costs are expressed in constant 1990 dollars. After deflating the costs, a discount rate of 2 percent is then applied to future costs to obtain the present value. This 2 percent rate is intended to reflect the real social cost of money. 6 ------- Projected statistical health effects and individual exposures are not discounted as are the costs of disposal. This simplifies the analysis. It is unnecessary to present the analysis with tables for alternate discount rates as the application of any positive discount rate over the 10,000-year period of analysis to health effects, which are already small, reduces them to very near zero. 1.7 CAVEATS ON MODELING Because of the generic nature of the assessment, the results for the risk calculations are not intended to project actual risks expected at particular sites. Such projections will only be possible after the potential sites are more fully characterized. Modeling efforts that extend over a period of 10,000 years require a number of assumptions to be made that inherently have varying amounts of uncertainty. 7 ------- 2 ANALYSIS OF COSTS AND HEALTH EFFECTS OF TRP DISPOSAL 2.1 TRU RISKS Salt deposits, located in several regions of the country, are viable candidates for a TRU repository because their very existence precludes groundwater flow. Qualitative problems with salt do exist and are discussed in the BID. These include the fact that if groundwater flow does change in the future such that water contacts the salt deposits, then the salt will dissolve and be carried away. Therefore, stability of existing groundwater flows is essential, and candidate sites must be expected to remain intact for thousands of years. Additionally, the probability of inadvertent drilling into the repository is higher for salt, as compared to other media, because salt formations are usually located in areas that contain commercially valuable resources. The waste disposal system considered in the risk assessment accompanying this EIA and the source of risk information for this EIA is based on national plans to develop mined geologic repositories for disposal of TRU wastes. Such repositories consist of underground mines or excavations with working levels between 300 and 1000 meters below the surface. Wastes would be packaged in metal drums and stacked in the mined waste disposal rooms. After emplacement of the waste, the disposal facility would be backfilled to enhance its mechanical stability and to retard the movement of fluids. 2.1.1 Pathways Radionuclides may travel from the repository to the accessible environment in three general ways: 1) direct pathways to the land surface, such as might occur if future generations penetrated the repository during an exploratory drilling program and accidentally contacted the wastes, 2) vertical migration in slowly moving ground water to an aquifer and then to the surface, and 3) transport of radioactive gases to the ground surface from a repository in the unsaturated zone. 2.1.2 Understanding the Individual Dose Individual exposures are estimated as the annual radiation dose an individual receives from consuming two liters of groundwater per day at a distance of 2000 meters from the boundary of the repository. Since the nuclear wastes will slowly migrate from the repository after the canister fails, the primary determinant of an individual's exposure is time. For a given waste 8 ------- form and canister life, the longer the time after placement of the TRU wastes, the greater the number of radionuclides in the groundwater. The low-probability events of drilling, seismic activity, and volcanic activity are ignored for individual exposure measures. 2.2 DEFINING THE OPTION This report analyzes only one option for TRU waste disposal. It assumes that the waste forms will have unlimited leach rates, the wastes will be placed in canisters with zero-year lives and the repository will be constructed in salt. No alternative medium, canister life, or waste form leach rate is modeled. Also, costs are available for only this option. Since health effects, individual exposures, and cost information exists only for one option, this EIA must limit its analysis to that option. Section 2.4 provides further details on this option. 2.3 POPULATION AND INDIVIDUAL RISKS Estimates of population risks and individual exposures for a TRU waste repository in this EIA are from the BID. For the population risk estimates, the BID uses the concept of "complementary cumulative distribution functions" (CCDF) to show projected health effects for a variety of repository choices. For individual exposures, it estimates the annual radiation dose, measured in millirems per year, from consuming two liters per day of groundwater two kilometers from the boundary of the repository. The CCDF concept and the individual risk measure are discussed in the following sections. The presentation and analysis of health risks for the TRU waste repository shows only one option presented for the TRU facility. Population risks are measured as projected statistical health effects while individual exposures (that is, millirem doses) are measured as the maximum annual dosage over 10,000 years. The expected number of health effects for a repository with the characteristics of the one modeled is less than one over 10,000 years for the 5.42 million curies emplaced. Low probability events such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and inadvertent drilling are considered. Since the repository is assumed to be mined in bedded salt with no accessible groundwater pathway under undisturbed conditions, no nuclides are expected to reach a groundwater system. Gaseous release is not possible from bedded salt because of the saturated condition of the surrounding rock. Because groundwater 9 ------- is also the pathway to the individual, the maximum individual millirem dose over 10,000 years will also be zero. 2.4 COST OF TRU WASTES 2.4.1 General Elements The TRU waste management system upon which the cost estimates in this report are modeled consists of two major elements — transportation system costs and the repository costs. The transportation system will use trucks to ship TRU wastes to the repository via pre-approved routes. This EIA does not consider the transportation system risk, but only analyzes the repository itself. The repository is projected to contain 5.42 million curies of TRU wastes consisting of the types and quantities of nuclides as specified in the BID. The repository for TRU wastes is designed to receive, inspect, and dispose of contact-handled and remote-handled TRU wastes. (Contact-handled wastes are those that can be handled directly since the shielding provided by the waste package prevents exposure. Remote-handled wastes are those that have enough contamination for beta, gamma, or neutron activity to require remote handling.) Exhibit 3 presents the costs of the TRU waste repository. Information is given for each year over the projected 44-year life of the facility. Specific cost components are given in section 2.4.2. Total costs over the life cycle of the TRU waste repository are shown. Costs are given in undiscounted 1990 dollars. Briefly, total undiscounted costs for a repository constructed in salt are estimated to be $3.8 billion. Discounting this cost stream to achieve a present value cost at 2 percent yields a total discounted cost of $2.3 billion for such a facility. Costs for canisters and waste forms are assumed to be zero. Generally, the waste form is simply the form of the wastes as they leave the site where they were generated and/or stored. No particular engineered waste form will be considered. Similarly, no particular engineered canister will be considered — the TRU wastes will be emplaced in the repository in the packages in which they arrive from the TRU waste generators and/or storage facilities. 10 ------- Exhibit 3 Annual TRU Waste Management system costs (in 1,000's of 1988 $) WIPP Transportation Repostitory Total System Fiscal Year Phase (See note 1.) (See note 2.) (in $1,000'S) 1976 construction 6 700 6,700 1977 construction 11 547 11,547 1978 construction 29 431 29,431 1979 construction 31 461 31,461 1980 construction 24 986 24,986 1981 construction 16 928 16,928 1982 construction 38 845 38,845 1983 construction 110 296 110,296 1984 construction 121 000 121,000 1985 construction 67 945 67,945 1986 construction 13 773 13,773 1987 construction 35 566 35,566 1988 construction 115 302 115,302 1989 construction 127 424 127,424 1990 transition 106 504 106,504 1991 pilot plant 2,484 111 460 113,944 1992 pilot plant 2,484 107 461 109,945 1993 pilot plant 2,484 101 369 103,853 1994 pilot plant 2,484 95 188 97,672 1995 pilot plant 2,484 89 981 92,465 1996 full operation 4,969 98 333 103,301 1997 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 1998 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 1999 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2000 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2001 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2002 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2003 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2004 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2005 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2006 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2007 full operation 4,969 98 801 103,769 2008 full operation 4,969 98 608 103,576 2009 full operation 4,969 98 124 103,093 2010 full operation 4,969 97 641 102,609 2011 full operation 4,969 97 157 102,126 2012 full operation 4,969 96 481 101,449 2013 phase out 4,969 84 590 89,558 2014 phase out 4,969 76 566 81,534 2015 phase out 4,969 64 868 69,837 2016 decommission 65 694 65,694 2017 decommission 60 641 60,641 2018 decommission 53 566 53,566 2019 decommission 42 449 42,449 Total $111,792 $3,484 698 $3,596,490 Note 1: Transportation costs computed based on WIPPc. They are for CH waste only. Note 2s Repository costs from WIPPd. They include a contingency factor. ------- 2.4.2 Detailed Cost Components The DOE plans to dispose of TRU waste from national defense programs in a geologic.repository located in bedded salt in Eddy County, New Mexico. The TRU waste repository is designated as the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The construction of the WIPP was authorized by the Department of Energy National Security and Military Applications of Nuclear Authorization Act of 1980 (Public Law 96-164) (DOE79) and is classified as a defense activity of the DOE, exempt from Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations. The life-cycle of the TRU waste management system began in 1976 when conceptual design work on the WIPP was initiated. The period from Fiscal Year 1976 (FY 1976) until FY 1989 can be generally characterized as a period of research and development (R&D) and construction of WIPP facilities. The TRU waste management system is currently entering a six year transition and pilot plant phase that extends from FY 1990 to FY 1995. The full operations phase is expected to last for seventeen years (FY 1996 to FY 2012) . Full operations will then be phased out over a three- year period (2013 to 2015). The TRU waste management system life- cycle will end in 2019 after a four-year decontamination and decommissioning phase. The major elements of the TRU waste management system are the transportation system and the WIPP. It is expected that TRU waste from ten sites will be shipped to the WIPP for disposal. The estimated volume of TRU waste to be disposed of is 175,640 cubic meters of contact-handled waste and 7082 cubic meters of remote handled waste. (FEIS90) 2.4.2.1 Selection of Reference System Costs A significant portion of the TRU waste management system currently exists as facilities and equipment at . the WIPP site. Consequently, sunk costs for these existing facilities and equipment were used as reference costs. In addition to costs for currently existing facilities and equipment, estimates of future capital and operating expenditures were needed to identify the life-cycle costs for the reference TRU waste management system. The reference WIPP sunk costs and estimates of future expenditures were provided for this EIA by the DOE. (WIPPa, WIPPb) Transportation reference costs are based on current WIPP life cycle projections which were provided by the DOE as well. Currently, figures are only available for contact-handled waste, which comprises 97 percent of the waste going into WIPP. These figures cover the amount WIPP will pay to its trucking contractor to haul the waste, the WIPP costs to handle waste packages, fees 12 ------- paid to states in transit, maintenance costs, and the cost of purchasing the waste packages themselves. It should be noted here that the costs for Type A TRU waste disposal inner packages (55-gallon drums, 30 gallon drums, standard waste boxes, etc.) containing the contact-handled and remote- handled TRU waste at the sites are not currently part of the cost of the WIPP or transportation elements of the TRU waste management system. The cost of the waste disposal packages will be absorbed by the individual TRU waste storage and/or generator site that ships TRU waste to the WIPP. The cost for the outer Type B packages (TRUPACT-II and the remote-handled package) and a Type B package maintenance facility are included in the WIPP repository costs. Thus, the cost for Type A waste packages are additional to the estimates provided below for the TRU waste management system. 2.4.2.2 Reference Costs The major cost categories during the life-cycle of the TRU waste management system are transportation and WIPP repository. The summary of reference costs for the TRU waste management system are contained in Exhibit 4. These costs are undiscounted. The total system life cycle cost, discounted at 2 percent, is $2.3 billion. The costs, in constant 1990 dollars, for the TRU waste management system are expressed on an annual basis in Exhibit 3. EXHIBIT 4 SUMMARY OF TRU WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM COSTS COST CATEGORY MILLIONS OF 1990 DOLLARS Repository (WIPP) 3,786.6 Transportation 121.5 Total System 3 ,908 Transportation The WIPP is designed to dispose of a waste inventory consisting of 175,640 cubic meters of contact-handled TRU waste and 7082 cubic meters of remote-handled TRU waste that is currently in retrievable storage or projected to be generated through the year 2013. The sites that are expected to send contact-handled TRU waste and/or remote-handled TRU waste to the WIPP are Idaho 13 ------- National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho; Rocky Flats Plant, Colorado; Hanford Reservation, Washington; Savannah River Plant, South Carolina; Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico; Nevada Test Site, Nevada; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee; Argonne National Laboratory-East, Illinois; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California; and Mound Plant, Ohio. The current plan is that all shipments of contact-handled and remote-handled TRU waste to the WIPP will be by truck. Trucks will pick up the TRU waste at the respective sites around the country and transport the waste to the WIPP via pre-approved routes. The contact-handled TRU waste will be placed in Type A packages at the waste sites. The contact-handled TRU packages are expected to be Type A 55-gallon drums or standard waste boxes for transport to the WIPP. Type A and B packing specifications are contained in NRC regulations, under 10 CFR 71. The proposed design of the Type B package for the contact-handled TRU waste is the TRUPACT-II. The TRUPACT-II has a capacity of fourteen 55-gallon drums or two standard waste boxes. A "low-boy" trailer carrying three TRUPACT-II packages per trip will transport the contact- handled TRU waste to the WIPP. The package in which the remote-handled TRU waste will be transported to the WIPP will also be able to meet TYPE B design criteria. The DOE is currently developing the Type B package that will be used for the remote-handled TRU waste. The remote-handled TRU waste will be contained at the sites in 55-gallon drums, 30- gallon drums, or similar containers that will be loaded into the Type B packages designed for transportation of the remote-handled TRU waste to the WIPP. Transportation costs for WIPP are projected over a 2 5 year life cycle, and broken down into four components: 1) Trucking Contract Cost. This is the cost that the trucking company charges to haul the waste, and includes the cost of drivers, driver training, fuel, and the cost to lease the tractors which haul the trailers on which the Type B waste packages are placed. A total of 40,905,000 miles will be covered hauling all the waste from the sites to WIPP, at a shipping cost of $1.86 (1990 dollars) per mile. 2) Fleet Purchase. This is the cost of the TRUPACT-II waste containers and the cost of the trailers on which they are placed. The cost for one TRUPACT-II is around $313,490 in 1990 dollars. The current plan is to purchase 17 of them. 3) Operational Cost. This is estimated to cost $1,268 per shipment in 1990 dollars, and WIPP is using a figure of 14 ------- 16,763 shipments to move all the wastes from the sites to WIPP. Operational costs cover state fees incurred in transit and the cost of loading and unloading the Type B packages from the trailers at the origin sites and at the destination. 4) Maintenance Cost. This covers spare parts and other miscellaneous costs. The total life-cycle cost for transportation to and from WIPP is an estimated $121,475,000 or $2.97 per mile in 1990 dollars over a total distance of 40,905,000 miles. Note again that this figure only covers contact-handled waste. Exhibit 5 contains a summary of the transportation costs of the TRU waste management system. EXHIBIT 5 REFERENCE TRU WASTE TRANSPORTATION COST ESTIMATES COST CATEGORY THOUSANDS OF 1990 DOLLARS Trucking Contract Cost 73,219 Operational Cost 21,427 Fleet Purchase 17,900 Maintenance 8,930 Total Transportation Costs 121,475 Repository The WIPP is designed to receive, inspect, and dispose of contact-handled and remote-handled TRU waste in a repository mined in the bedded salt underlying the WIPP site. The surface facilities at the WIPP include the waste handling building, shaft filter building, warehouses, etc. The underground facilities include the shafts that connect the surface to the underground repository horizon, the waste-disposal area, an experimental area, and an equipment and maintenance support area. All TRU waste is received at the waste handling building of the WIPP where it is inspected, inventoried, and prepared for disposal. From the waste handling building, the TRU waste is transported via the waste shaft to the underground facilities for disposal. 15 ------- The figures given are considered to be conservative: when multiplied by the contingency rates of 0 percent in the Pilot Plant Phase, 10 percent in the Full Operation and Operation Phase-Out periods, and 15 percent in the Decontamination and Decommissioning, the grand total rises from $3,567,420,000 in 1990 dollars to $3,907,530,000. Exhibit 6 contains a summary of the capital, waste operating, waste capital equipment, general plant projects, and contingency costs for the WIPP. Also included in the summary WIPP costs are expenditures related to the development, testing, manufacture, and maintenance of TRUPACT-II and remote-handled TRU waste Type B packages. EXHIBIT 6 REFERENCE REPOSITORY COST ESTIMATES COST CATEGORY THOUSANDS OF 1990 DOLLARS Capital Costs 444,354 Waste Operating 2,915,312 Waste Capital Equipment 160,385 General Plant Project 47,373 Contingency 219,123 Total Repository Costs 3,786,549 Waste Disposal Packages As discussed above, the cost of the disposal waste packages containing the TRU are not included within the reference costs of the transportation and repository elements of the TRU waste management system. Waste package costs are absorbed by the TRU waste generators and/or storage facilities. Unit costs for TRU disposal waste packages are contained in Exhibit 7. 16 ------- EXHIBIT'7 REFERENCE UNIT COST FOR TRU WASTE DISPOSAL PACKAGES: WASTE DISPOSAL PACKAGE 1990 DOLLARS CH TRU 55 Gallon Drum $79 CH TRU Standard Waste Box $1,475 RH Disposal Canister n/a 2.4.2.3 Design of Repository and Waste Packages for TRU Waste The elements of the TRU waste management system most likely to be impacted by 40 CFR 191 are the repository and waste packages. This section discusses in detail the repository facility and the waste packages that will be used for TRU disposal. Repository Design The WIPP site is located in Eddy County in southeastern New Mexico. The site is about 2 5 miles east of Carlsbad, New Mexico and about 45 miles southwest of Hobbs, New Mexico. The site is in an area known as Los Medanos which is relatively flat, and sparsely populated. The land the WIPP site occupies is owned by the Bureau of Land Management. The WIPP site boundary is defined by a 16 square mile area. There are two control zones within this boundary. Control Zone I contains most of the surface facilities and occupies approximately 100 acres. Control Zone II covers about 1,800 acres that overlies the maximum limit of the underground facilities. Surface Facilities The principal surface structure is the waste handling building. All TRU waste is routed through this building. The building has separate areas for the receipt, inventory, and transfer of the contact-handled and the remote-handled TRU waste to the waste shaft. The areas for the contact-handled waste include shipping-and- receiving, receiving-and-inspect ion, inventory-and-preparation, and a overpack-and-repair room for damaged waste packages. The separate facilities for the remote-handled waste include shipping- and-receiving areas, shipping-cask preparation and decontamination, 17 ------- an area for unloading casks, and a hot cell. The contact-handled and remote-handled TRU waste is transferred to the waste shaft through separate air-locks. In addition to the TRU waste facilities, the waste handling building also contains change rooms, a health physics laboratory, eguipment for ventilation and filtration, and an attached facility for the maintenance of Type B packages. Some of the other surface facilities at the WIPP site include a shaft filter building, warehouses, a construction management and maintenance complex, a safety and emergency services building, a security building, etc. Underground Facilities The underground facilities of the WIPP are constructed beneath the surface facilities in the bedded salt of the Salado Formation (the underground repository horizon), approximately 2,150 feet (655.5 meters) beneath the surface. The underground facilities consist of the shafts that connect the surface facilities to the underground repository horizon and the facilities excavated in the underground repository horizon. There are four shafts at the WIPP. These shafts are used for air intake, salt-handling, TRU waste handling, and air exhaust, respectively. The facilities in the underground repository horizon include the waste disposal area, an experimental area, an equipment and ¦maintenance area, aftd connecting drifts. The waste disposal area will consist of emplacement and access drifts laid out in a "room- and-pillar" configuration. The total waste disposal area needed to emplace the 175,640 cubic meters of contact-handled TRU waste and the 7,082 cubic meters of remote-handled TRU waste is estimated to be about 100 acres. To date, only about 15 acres of this area has been completed. The experimental area and the equipment and maintenance areas are located to the north of the waste disposal area and are largely complete. Contact-handled TRU waste will be transported to the underground repository horizon via the waste shaft. It is expected that the contact-handled TRU waste arriving in the repository horizon will be contained in 55-gallon drums or standard waste boxes placed on pallets. The pallets on which the TRU waste has been placed will be transported to an emplacement drift where the pallet will be placed on the floor of the drift or stacked on top of previously emplaced contact-handled TRU waste packages. Emplacement drifts are to be backfilled with salt. Remote-handled TRU waste will be transported to the underground facilities via the waste shaft in a facility cask holding one canister of remote-handled TRU waste. The canister is horizontally emplaced in steel-lined holes in the salt pillars. The holes will then be capped with a shielded steel plug. These 18 ------- drifts will not be backfilled until a decision on retrieval of the remote-handled TRU waste has been made. Waste Packaging Design Package designs are developed for two types of wastes: contact-handled wastes and remote-handled wastes. With respect to contact-handled waste, storage containers are 55-gallon steel drums and standard waste storage boxes. Descriptions of remote-handled waste storage containers are not available. 2.5 COSTS OF DEMONSTRATING COMPLIANCE WITH INDIVIDUAL AND GROUNDWATER REQUIREMENTS Computer modeling of environmental pathways to determine nuclide releases to the accessible environment is performed as part of the general containment requirements. Such modeling is also a first step, and a major step, in determining releases to groundwater and doses to individuals. Additional modeling is performed on releases to the accessible environment, through specific pathways, to determine compliance with individual and groundwater requirements. Thus, the cost of demonstrating compliance with these requirements is likely only to be slightly incremental to those efforts already required to be undertaken to show compliance with the containment requirements. The total additional cost is likely to be only a small percentage of the total cost of modeling and an insignificant fraction of the total cost of disposal. EPA experience in environmental pathway modeling suggests that the cost of this effort should not exceed $1 million. Additionally, with the reinstatement of the containment requirements, any costs of the characterization of a TRU disposal site should fall under the satisfaction of demonstrating compliance with those requirements. The geological information required to be collected to adequately characterize the site is identical for both the containment requirements and for the individual and groundwater requirements. Therefore few, if any, of the costs of characterization can be said to fall to the groundwater and individual containment requirements. 2.6 REAL IMPACT OF 40 CFR 191 AMENDMENTS Because of the reinstatement of the containment portion of 40 CFR Part 191, there is no economic impact of this amendment. Modeling results for a TRU disposal site in a salt media indicate that the groundwater, individual dose requirements, and the containment requirements contained in 40 CFR Part 191 are met 19 ------- concomitantly. In fact, for the TRU salt site modeled, groundwater and individual doses were zero. This results from the fact that the measures used to ensure that the containment requirements are met and retard nuclides from entering the environment outside of the repository (in this case, the salt media) also act to protect groundwater and the individual, at least in the instance modeled. Data are unavailable for the disposal of TRU in other types of media of serious interest. Because of this it is currently impossible to say with certainty whether or not the same circumstances apply for these other media and what the impact might be at alternate sites for the imposition of the groundwater and individual dose requirements. However, a multimedia study is planned to address the impact of the amendments on alternative media in the next iteration of this analysis. 20 ------- CHAPTER 3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS The preceding analysis has looked at the impact of the amendments as they currently exist. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the result of a change in the level of the standard, either relaxing or becoming more stringent, on the cost of the standard. This indirectly examines the cost-effectiveness of the standard. The effect of varying the period of performance is also examined. 3.1 VARYING THE DOSE LEVEL As developed previously, the modeling results demonstrated that over the 10,000 year period of the analysis, there was zero discharge to any groundwater pathway. Individual dose was zero and groundwater contaminant levels were also zero. If these results were to be interpreted as applying to all salt media repositories, the implication would be that the level of a standard could be set at zero for both individual dose and groundwater radionuclide contaminants. This would have no cost impact as it requires no improvement in containment technology. Likewise, the same result holds for setting the standard at any level between the current level and zero. Conversely, the impact of setting the level of the standard higher than currently proposed is also zero, if the difficulty of showing compliance with the standard can be ignored (it may be that there is some correlation between the difficulty of showing compliance with a standard and the cost of this demonstration and the stringency of the standard). The same disposal technology is used regardless of the level of the standard. 3.2 1,000 VERSUS 10,000 YEAR PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE A 1,000 year time frame for the period of performance was previously considered by EPA as part of this amendment, as opposed to the current 10,000 year form of the standard. This was discarded for reasons discussed in the Preamble to the proposed rule. The economic impact of a 1,000 versus 10,000 year standard is believed to be small. As discussed in Chapter 2, for the media best characterized and for which modeling results are available (salt), there are zero releases over the entire 10,000 year period of the analysis. Therefore, extending the period of performance from 1,000 years to 10,000 years requires no additional engineering controls to achieve the standard. 21 ------- Additional efforts, including modeling, necessary to demonstrate compliance with the standards over the 10,000 period (versus the 1,000 time period) are believed to be small. The efforts to demonstrate compliance with the 1,000 year time period are not believed to be large relative to overall effort and the analysis for the 10,000 year period would only be slightly incremental to that for a 1,000 year period. 22 ------- CHAPTER 4 GENERAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TRU DISPOSAL The previous chapters have discussed the costs expended on repository development for the single option of disposing of TRU wastes and the health effects, individual exposures, and groundwater contamination associated with TRU disposal. The focus was on the extent to which the amendments to 40 CFR Part 191 impose additional costs over and above existing regulatory requirements. This chapter takes a broader view. Ignoring the fact that there is no incremental impact of the amendments to 40 CFR Part 191, a viable question to ask is that of the impact of TRU disposal on the economy. The $2.3 billion cost of TRU disposal will fall to DOE. These costs then fall to the Federal government. The evaluation of the economic impacts of Federal government expenditures to comply with waste disposal are not developed through the use of a quantitative model. Instead a qualitative discussion is provided. A quantitative model is not analytically useful because, given the small size of the waste disposal expenditures relative to the Federal budget, determining the origin of the funds, their impacts, or their opportunity costs is not possible. Perhaps funds would be raised by increased taxation or government borrowing. In the absence of a direct tax or bond issuance to fund this specific program it will be impossible to trace the impact of increased funding in anything more than the most general terms. Consequently, it will also be impossible to identify the alternative uses to which these funds would have been put in the private sector. Thus the impact as well as the opportunity cost of diverting the funds to public use cannot be accurately quantified. Conversely, there seems to be no reason to assume that the impacts will fall disproportionately on any particular group in society. Perhaps funds would be raised at the expense of other government programs. There could be a slight change in funding over an unspecified group of programs or a larger change in specific programs. It might be argued that DOE nuclear programs would be the most likely victims of such cuts. Again, it will be impossible to determine the exact origin of funds and thus the impacts or opportunity costs. Regardless of the origin of the funds, the most useful way of analyzing the expenditures are as transfer payments in that the expenditures are generated through taxation or some other means and are spent on the waste disposal program. This transfer of funds by the Federal government is likely to have a positive impact on certain regions and industries. The impacts are the result of 23 ------- fiscal injections and could be measured in costs for particular goods and services, which are specified in Chapter Two. These costs could also be converted to associated impacts on employment (which may increase) and income although this is not done in Chapter Three. The local area chosen for the waste disposal site will most certainly receive increased infusions of Federal dollars. There should be no disproportionate increase, however, in Federal taxes paid by the affected localities or industries involved. Beyond the positive benefits accruing to certain localities and industries, no discernible patterns of economic impacts should occur. Since expenditures will be derived from general revenues, no negative impacts on particular industry segments or small businesses should occur. 24 ------- REFERENCES DOE 79 U.S. Department of Energy, National Security and Military Applications of Nuclear Energy Act of 1980. Public Law 96-164, December 29, 1979. EPA 9 2A Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Standards for the Management and Disposal of Spend Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes, Draft preamble to the proposed rule, August 14, 1992. EPA 92B Environmental Protection Agency, Draft Federal Register Notice for 40 CFR Part 191, August 14, 1992. EPA 92C Environmental Protection Agency, Background Information Document for Amendments to 40 CFR Part 191, October, 1992. FEIS 9 0 U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, Final Supplement— Environmental Impact Statement. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, January 1990. Hunt 1 Letter from Mr. Arlen Hunt, Acting Project Manager of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Project Office, Albuquerque Operations Office, Department of Commerce, to Mr. Elliott Foutes, Environmental Protection Agency, March 15, 1990. ORNL 91 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Integrated Data Base for 1991: Spend Fuel and Radioactive Waste Inventories, Projections and Characteristics, DOE/RW-0006, Rev. 5, October 1991. WIPPa Letter from Mr. Arlen Hunt, Acting Project Manager of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Project Office. Albequerque Operations Office, Department of Energy, to Mr. Dan Egan, Environmental Protection Agency, January, 31, 1990. WIPPb Letter from Mr. Arlen Hunt, Acting Project Manager of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Project Office, Albuquerque Operations Office, Department of Energy, to Mr. Elliott Foutes, Environmental Portection Agency, March 31, 1990. 25 ------- |