United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Research
and Development
Washington, DC 20460
December 1979
Executive Summary
Draft
Environmental Outlook 1980
-------
Environmental Outlook is published annually
by EPA'ss Office of Research and Development to
provide Agency planners information on future
environmental trends and problems.
Comments and suggestions are welcomed and
should be addressed to:
Strategic Analysis Group, RD-675
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
401 "M" Street, S.W.
Washington, B.C. 20460
This document is a draft in circulation for
review. It has not been formally released by the
li.S. Environmental Protection Agency and should
not at this stage be quoted or interpreted to
represent Agency policy, nor does mention of
trade names or commercial products consitute
endorsement or recommendation for use. Permis-
sions to publish materials used or adapted from
copywrited sources are pending.
-------
ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1980
SUMMARY REPORT
BY
Strategic Analysis Group
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
-------
Environmental Outlook 1980
The interdisciplinary team which produced Environmental Outlook 1980 was comprised of:
Project Director: Irvin L« (Jack) White, Strategic Analysis Group, EPA
Program Manager: Beth Borko, MITRE Corporation
Assistant Program Managers/Directors: Brian Price, MITRE Corporation and Haven Whiteside,
Strategic Analysis Group, EPA
Team Members:
Strategic Analysis Group, EPA:
John M, Agosta
David A, Bennett
Valdis Goticarovs
John Reuss
International Research and
Technology Corporation:
Richard Meyer
MITRE Corpo ra t i on:
Thomas Wolfinger
CONSAD Research Corporation:
Alan Bernstein
Urban Systems Research and
Engineering, Incorporated:
Peter Hall
Kevin Hollenback
Other persons who contributed to the report ate as follows:
EPA:
Robert Barles, Anticipatory
Research, Office of Research
and Development
Michael Bergman, Special
Projects Office, Research
Triangle Park
Alvin Edwards, Strategic
Analysis Group, Office of
Research and Development
Mark Schaefer, Technical
Information, Office of
Research and Development
International Research and
Technology Corporation:
Donald Cooper
Ralph Doggett
Susan Hall
Mark Sayers
Robert Strieter
Ginger Spence
Consultants:
Yacov Haimes, Case-Western
Reserve University
Frank Maslan, Private Consultant
Editorial Experts, Incorporated:
Hardy Dietz
Lola Zook
MITRE Corporation/Metrek Division:
Judith Cambon
Edward Friedman
Dabney Hart
Sharon Hill
Richard Kalagher
Andrew Lawrence
Marc Narkus-Kramer
Sheila Pack
Daniel Schultz
John Wik
Joe Wisniewski
Urban Systems Research and Engineering:
Jean Banks
Robert Burke
Martha Connolly
Annuardha Doelalikar
Lee Dillard
Claire Nwola
Mark Stellwagen
CONSAD Research Corporation:
Nazir Dossini
Thomas Piwowar
Mary Reiter
Gabe Sucher
Control Data Corporation:
Carol Metzger
-------
Introduction
ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1980
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's
research program is designed to support the
Agency's regulatory activities and to look "over
the horizon" to identify future environmental
trends and problems. If the Agency is to be
prepared to either avoid or deal with future
problems, adequate information about the
environmental future must be available to inform
R&D planning. The annual Environmental Outlook
report, prepared by the Strategic Analysis Group,
is intended to become a major source of this
information. Although Environmental Outlook 1980
is the fourth report in this series, it is the
first to provide more than quantitative trends
information on selected air, water, and so lid
waste pollutants. This report takes a big step
toward achieving the more ambitious objective of
providing a comprehensive, integrated overview of
future environmental trends and an analysis of
their implications for the environmental values
EPA is responsible for protecting.
Scope arid Approach
Environmental Outlook 1980 provides histor-
ical trends information on public opinion about
environmental protection and environmental policy
and forecasts future trends for a number of
pollutants. It also discusses the environmental
implications of these trends.
Societal Trends o
Air Pollutants o
Global Atmospheric
Pollution o
Water Pollutants o
Drinking Water o
Water Resources o
Ocean Pollution
Solid and Hazardous
Wastes
Toxic Substances
Radiation
Noise
Energy and the
Environment
The interdisciplinary team preparing this
report uses a variety of formal and informal
models and analytical methods to provide both
qualitative and quantitative information about
future environmental trends and their implica-
tions. The team sought the assistance of experts
through an iterative process in which the experts
were asked to critique draft chapters, the team
revised those chapters based on the expert's
comments and suggestions, and the revised chap-
ters were circulated for additional comments and
suggestions. This review/revision process was an
essential element of the approach used to produce
this report; it was intended to help ensure the
report's quality while enhancing its credibility
and usefulness.
In preparing the report, trends and problems
information are drawn from a large number of
sources. These sources are identified at appro-
priate places throughout the report. The
principal formal analytical tool used is the
EPA; Long-Range Research Planning Process
Research
Committee
Strategies
Science
Advisory
Board
NAS
Fenn State
IRLC
Research
Out Look
SAG
ENVIRONMENTAI
OUTLOOK
REPORT
Anticipatory
Research
Findings
Research Committees
Mobile Source
Air Pollution
Oxidants
Gaseous and Inhalable
Particulates
Hazardous Air
Pollutants
Water Resources
Industrial
Wastewater
Municipal Wastewater,
Ocean
Disposal, and Spill
Prevention
Drinking Water
Solid Waste
Toxic Testing and
Assessment
Pesticides
Non-Ionizing
Radiation
Formal
Agency,
0MB, and
Congressional
Budget
Planning
Process
Grants/
Cooperative
Agreements
Contracts
In-house
Laboratory
Work
1
-------
Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS).
This system, described in Chapter 2 and Appendix
B of the Eull report, is used most extensively in
Chapters 4 (Air Pollutants), 6 (Water Pollu-
tants), 10 (Solid and Hazardous Wastes), and 14
(Energy and the Environment), Other forecasts
and analyses are used in each of these chapters
to extend, supplement, and evaluate the SEAS
analysis. In any case, the environmental trends
and problems information presented in this report
should be considered approximate projections of
currently discernible trends rather than
predictions of the future.
Two scenarios are used to structure the
analysis generally and the SEAS analyses
specifically. Three sets of assumptions define
the two scenarios: GNP and population growth
rate, energy supply and demand, and level of
environmental control.
In some particularly sensitive areas, such
as energy, results produced using these two
scenarios are compared with those produced using
scenarios based on very different assumptions.
tion of historical trends in several indirect
indicators of public support for environmental
protection. The indicators examined are public
opinion, environmental legislation, and environ-
mental organizations. This examination leads to
the overall conclusion that public support for
protecting the environment steadily increased
during the 1970s. Despite persistent
stagflation, periodic gas lines, and other,
sometimes costly, inconveniences, basic support
for environmental protection remains quite
strong. Specific findings are that:
o It was not until the "gasoline crisis" of
the summer of 1979 that "the public"
perceived that energy and environmental
goals might not be achievable simultan-
eously. But even then, environmental goals
were not abandoned; rather, by a small
margin, persons polled indicated a willing-
ness to slow down efforts to achieve
environmental goals in order to decrease
dependence on foreign energy sources.
o Legislative trends reveal that strong
efforts are being made to implement and
MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS
High Growth Low Growth
GMP Growth, 1975-2000*
Population Growth Sate3
Energy Supply Growth Rate3
Total Energy Supply, 2000
Coal Supply, 2000
3.52/yr
0.8Z/yr
2,1%/yr
124 Q's
2 • 6 X j fx
€.hXtyr
1.5%/yr
1D5 Q's
35% of total 31% of total
Environmental Control
Assumptions
Air
Standard
Full Enforcement by:
Existing Plants
Hew Plants
Boilers and Utilities
Automobiles
SIP
NSPS
NSPS
Mobile Source
1985
1975
1981 Boilers
1984 Utilities
1981 CO and NO*
1980 HC
Water
All Plants
All Plants
BPT
BAT
1979
1985
aExpressed as average for 1975 to
Public Support lor Environmental Protection
Social values will be a major determinant of
our environmental future. However, it is diffi-
cult to identify current social values and highly
speculative to forecast what they might be in the
future. Although future Environmental Outlook
reports will analyze the potential environmental
effects of significant changes in social values,
this year'8 report is limited to a brief examina-
enforce environmental laws while simultan-
eously minimizing regulatory impacts on
energy and the economy.
o Environmental problems have received con-
siderable attention, internationally.
Progress includes establishing new inter-
national organizations and a range of
bilateral agreements as well as adding
environmental programs in existing organi-
2
-------
Attitudes toward Environmental Protection
versus Economic Growth*
Total
Thoughtleaders
(102)
Total Public
(1,002)
"We must accept a slower
rate of economic growth
In order to protect our
environment."
23 percent
58 percent
"We must relax
environmental
standards in
order to achieve
economic growth."
27 percent
20 percent
"We can achieve our
current national goals
of environmental
protection and economic
growth at the same time.'
50 percent
18 percent
"No opinion" omitted
a"Here are three statements about environmental
Please tell me which statement you agree with
zations such as the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization and the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development.
In economically
than the United
programs are bei
steady progress
point source air
contrast, many d
have not address
need to meet bas
to protect a ser
environment.
developed countries other
States, environmental
ng institutionalized and
is being made to control
and water pollutants. In
eveloping countries thus far
ed the dilemma between the
ic human needs and the need
iously deteriorating
Future Environmental Trends and Their Implications
Future environmental trends are projected
and analyzed in seven separate, although not
mutually exclusive categories: air, water, solid
and hazardous wastes, toxic substances,
radiation, noise, and energy. Trends and
implications in each of these categories are
summarized below.
Air
In the air analysis, both national and
regional trends for five conventional air
pollutants—particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide—are
projected and three potential global air
problems—acid deposition, carbon dioxide, and
stratospheric ozone—are examined.
Conventional Pollutants
Based on the analysis of conventional
pollutants, the overall conclusion is that full
compliance with existing regulations for
controlling air pollution would result in a
protection and economic growth,
the most."
decline in the national emissions of
particulates, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide
between 1975 and 2000. However, national
emissions of nitrogen oxides are projected to
increase substantially and national emissions of
sulfur oxides to increase somewhat over this time
period. The major factors producing these trends
would be increased use of coal by electric
utilities and industrial boilers, and controls on
both point and mobile source pollution.
Important details include the following:
o The largest single source of particulates—
the construction materials industry—is not
forecast to achieve an overall reduction in
emissions by 2000. However, forecast
improvements by most other sources would
more than compensate, leading to a 15
percent decline in total particulate
emissions.
o Particulate emissions in the Middle Atlantic
and Great Lakes Regions (III and V) are
projected to decline by about 50 percent,
due to improved controls and slower than
average regional economic growth. In
contrast, emissions in the South Central
Region (VI) are projected to increase by
about 70 percent due to growth in aluminum
production and substitution of coal for
other fuels.
o Mandated flue gas desulfurization would be
expected to achieve some reduction in sulfur
oxides emissions by electric utilities and
industrial boilers by 1985. Thereafter,
continued growth and increased reliance on
coal would offset these gains, so that
sulfur oxides emissions would return to the
1975 level by 2000.
o Sulfur oxides emissions in the South Central
Region (VI) are projected to triple over the
3
-------
Trends in Net Emissions of Major Air Pollutants
by Source Nation
[ Other
Chemicals and Allied Products
| Construction Materials
Transportation
Industrial Combustion
Petroleum Refining
Electric Utilities
1975 2000
Particulates
1975 2000
Sulfur
Oxides
1975 2000
Nitrogen
Oxides
1975 2000
Hydro-
Carons
1975 2000
Carbon
Monoxide
AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS
Pollutant Regional Trends
Cause of Trend
Implications
Particulates Decline in emissions in
Regions II, III, and V.
Reduction in Region VII.
Slow increase in Regions
I, VI, VII, IX and X.
Sulfur
Oxides
Nitrogen
Oxides
Hydro-
carbon
Carbon
Monoxide
Increase in Regions I,
IV, VI, VII, VIII, and
X.
Decrease in Regions II,
III, V, and IX.
Increase in all Regions.
Decrease in all Regions.
Decrease in all Regions.
Implementation of control
devices on electric utility
and industrial boilers.
Implementation of control
technologies which reduce
the amount of dust created
by the construction material
industry.
Increased use of coal in the
electric utility industry
tends to offset air pollution
control technologies.
Increased number of electric
utilities and industrial boilers
burning coal as a source of
fuel will tend to offset air
pollution control requirements.
A limited increase in the number
of coal burning facilities, and
increased compliance with air
pollution regulations.
Increased burning of coal and oil
by industry.
Compliance with transportation
emission standards.
Compliance with transportation
emission standards.
Decrease in potential
of photochemical smog
and health related effects.
Increase in potential
for atmospheric acid
rain, photochemical smog,
and health-related effects
Increase in potential
for atmospheric acid
rain and localized
respiratory ailments.
Decrease in localised
respiratory ailments.
Increase in the potential
for atmospheric acid rain
and photochemical smog.
Decrease in the formation
of photochemical smog.
Reduction in the occur-
rence of short-term health
problems (such as nausea,
headaches, dizziness).
-------
period because of the rapid increase in coal
use.
o Because few stationary emission sources are
required to adopt controls, nitrogen oxides
emissions are projected to increase by
almost 50 percent nationally by 2000.
Reductions achieved by transportation
sources would be offset by increased
emissions from fossil fuel combustion by
electric utilities and industrial boilers.
o Emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon
monoxide would be expected to decline by
about one-third, reflecting automobile
emission controls.
Global Atmospheric Pollution
Carbon dioxide, acid deposition, and ozone
depletion are major issues in atmospheric pollu-
tion. Their impacts have growing global implica-
tions. In each case, the emitted pollutants
exhibit sufficiently long lifetimes in the
atmosphere to be transported long distances and
thereby create widespread influence. Carbon
dioxide is, for all practical purposes, uniformly
distributed in the atmosphere even though its
sources are concentrated in the Northern Hemis-
phere. Acid precipitation results mainly from
nitrogen and sulfur compounds, which are trans-
ported regionally before becoming the sulfates
and nitrates that create the acid precipitation.
In ozone depletion, the long-range transport of
ozone-depleting compounds is vertical, resulting
in increased concentrations of these materials in
the stratosphere where they participate in the
destruction of ozone.
The effects of these processes on people and
their environment have not yet been quantitative-
ly determined. So far as we know now, only acid
deposition exhibits short-term effects. Carbon
dioxide is known to have increased over the past
100 years, yet the possible climatic impacts
resulting from an altered earth radiation budget
have not been observed, perhaps because the
magnitude of national climatic variation is
sufficient to dwarf human impact at this time.
The ozone depletion predicted to result from
release of fluorocarbon gases, or from aircraft
flight in the stratosphere, has yet to be detect-
ed; again the reason is that large natural varia-
tion may mask the probable effect.
Each of these problems merits worldwide
concern, not only because the sources of
pollutants are widely distributed but also
because the adverse effects would be suffered
globally.
Several significant considerations are:
o Increasing combustion of fossil fuels over
the next two decades will increase carbon
dioxide emissions.
o This global trend (along with widespread
deforestation) implies that the observed
H
O
<
a
z
o
<
(J
46
40
30
20
U.S. and Global Contributions to Total Fossil Fuel-
Induced C02 Release
S 10
o
COAL
X
o
I GLOBAL
U.S.
J EC
< = o
3 = s
E— "r ® ©
(J 1 O HI J
m fc
TOTAL OF ALL
FOSSII, FUELS
40
30
20
10
1975
2030
1985 2000 2030 1975 1985 2000
YEAR YEAR
Source: Chen, K. , R.C. Winter, and M.K.
Bergman, "CO2 from Fossil Fuels:
Adapting to Uncertainty," submitted
for publication. The non-SEAS
Scenarios indicated here as "High"
and "Low" represent sharp extremes
of optimism and pessimism concerning
future reliance on fossil fuels.
build-up in atmospheric carbon dioxide will
continue for the foreseeable future. The
predicted increase in global mean tempera-
ture from a "greenhouse effect" could impact
agriculture and regional hydrology
worldwide.
o Acid deposition has become a problem in both
North America and in Europe. Surface
deposits from precipitation (rain or snow),
dry deposition (gases or particulates), or
other events (dews, fogs, frosts, etc.) are
becoming more acidic and more widespread.
Temperature Range Analysis
SYSTEM
"NOISE
HIGH GROWTH
PESSIMISTIC a
HIGH GROWTH
PESSIMISTIC
WITH CONTROL3
LOW GROWTH
PESSIMISTIC
HIGH GROWTH
OPTIMISTIC3
1980
LOW GROWTH
OPTIMISTIC3
2020 2040
YEAR
2080
The non-SEAS scenarios indicated here
as "High" and "Low" represent sharp
extremes of optimism concerning future
reliance on fossil fuels.
5
-------
Acidity of Precipitation over the Eastern U.S.
1955-1956
AVERAGE pH OF PRECIPITATION
Source: Adapted from Chemical and Engineering
News,Nov. 22, 1976,p.31, with permission.
At present, sulfur and nitrogen compounds
are the main contributors to the acid
deposition problem. Sulfur oxide emissions
are expected to level out in the 1980s,
while nitrogen oxide emissions continue to
increase.
Ozone Reduction 1960-2070
Acid deposition has had substantial adverse
effects on the environment: acidification
of lakes, rivers, and ground waters, with
resultant damage to the aquatic ecosystem.
Acidification and demineralization of soils,
reduction of forest productivity, damage to
crops, and deterioration of materials are
other possible effects. These effects may
be cumulative or result from peak acidity
episodes.
Fluorocarbons and other halogen gases are
stable in the troposphere but decompose in
the intense radiation of the stratosphere.
The halogens released, primarily chlorine,
are expected to reduce the ozone concentra-
tions of the stratosphere, thereby globally
increasing ultraviolet radiation at the
ground and altering global climate.
Water
The water analysis includes both point and
non-point discharges, drinking water, water
resources, and ocean pollution.
Point and Non-point Discharges
Given a high degree of compliance with regu-
lations, point source discharges of biochemical
oxygen demand (BOD) and suspended solids are
expected to decline nationally between 1975 and
2000, and an acceptable level of control is
expected for fecal coliform and pH.
A, A1, B, C, and D are each a different scenario
for the reduction of ozone concentrations in the
stratosphere. A,
s»
l!
Bd
and D are the
steady-state percentage change in ozone concen-
tration that would be reached under each sce-
nario
Source: National Academy of Sciences, Panel on
Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport,
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Halo-
carbons: Chemistry and Transport.
Washington, D.C. 1979
Net discharges of dissolved solids are pro-
jected to increase between 1975 and 2000; how-
ever, trends in discharges of toxics from point
sources subject to more stringent standards are
expected to decline substantially.
1060 70 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
6
-------
Non-point sources are estimated to greatly
exceed the discharges from point sources and
affect 90 percent of the drainage basins in the
United States. If not adequately controlled
through Best Management Practices, non-point
pollution will prevent achievement of national
water quality goals.
Important details include the following:
o Regions with the greatest increases in
population and economic output are projected
to have the greatest increases in the
generation of pollutants and therefore, may
face the most difficult control problems.
This is most marked in the Southeast and
South Central Regions (IV and VI).
o Controls on municipal sewage treatment
facilities and the pulp and paper industry
will lead to the expected decline in net BOD
discharges although gross generation of BOD
is expected to increase in all regions.
Similar sources reductions are expected for
suspended solids.
o Important industrial sources of dissolved
solids discharges include the inorganic and
organic chemicals industries, coal prepara-
tion, electric utilities, and coal mining.
Because of sizable increases in coal-fired
and nuclear electric generation in the
Northwest Region (X), that region is pro-
jected to experience the largest percentage
increases in both generation and net dis-
charges of dissolved solids.
Gross generation of cadmium, chromium,
cyanide, and copper is expected to increase,
and the generation of mercury to decrease
between 1975 and 2000. Generation of phenol
(as oil and grease) is expected to increase
while phenol (as dissolved solids) is
expected to decline over the same period.
Net discharges of all the analyzed toxics
are expected to decline substantially
between 1975 and 2000 because of
environmental controls.
The regional distribution of urban pollutant
discharges varies because of population den-
sity, urban land use types, precipitation
patterns, and area served by different types
of sewer systems. The Great Lakes Region
(V) contributes about 25 percent of the
pollution, the Southeast and New York-New
Jersey Regions (IV and II) together contri-
bute about 30 percent, but the drier, less
urbanized Mountain Region (VIII) contri-
butes only 1 percent. The distribution of
agricultural pollutant discharges varies
among regions, mainly because of differences
in crop production and precipitation pat-
terns. The Southeast, Great Lakes, and
Central Regions (IV, V, and VII) generate
more than three-fourths of most pollutant
releases; however, insecticide and miscel-
Trends in Discharges ol Water Pollutants
from Point and Selected Nonpoint Sources Nation
in
0)
o>
o
o
c
~
CC
C
r^
o>
T-
o
c
o
o
CQ
Urban Runoff
Agricultural Runoff
Point Source
57.8
47.0
2
0
1975 2000
Biochemical
Oxygen
Demand
1975 2000
Total
Suspended
Solids
1975 2000
Total
Dissolved
Solids
1975 2000
Total
Nitrogen
1975 2000
Total
Phosphorus
1975 2000
Oil and
Grease
aThe assumption is made that point sources are controlled, but nonpoint sources are not.
7
-------
MA!OK '-'An;
Caus<
Decrease in discharge
ol BOD by point sourC'
in al I El'A rtegLons.
pollutant dischaw.ks
of Trend
Implementation ot wafer pollution
control technologies primarily by
the pulp and paper industry and
municipal sewage treatment
fa
ill
Implitat ions
A national decrease in
the amount ot BOO dis-
charged to surface waters
due to point source pollu-
tants levels will decline
to below 1975 levels.
Suspended Decrease in discharge? Implementation of water pollution
Solids of suspended solids by control technologies primarily by
point sources in all KHA the pulp and paper industry, the
Regions. Major declines bauxite refining industry and
in Regions IV, V, and VI. municipal sewage treatment
facilities.
A national decline in the
amount of suspended solids
discharged to surface
Leve Is will dec 1
below 19 75 1
Dissolved Increase in the discharge
Solids of dissolved solids in
all EPA Regions. Major
increases in Regions III,
IV , V , and VI.
Nitrogen Decline in EPA Regions I,
III, V, and VII. Remain
stable or show a slight
increase in remaining
regions.
Phosphorus Slight increase in the
level of phosphorus dis-
charged in Region VI, a
decline projected for
remaining EPA regions.
Oil and Slight increase in the
Crease discharge of oil and
grease in EPA Regions
IV, VII, and X. Decline
in all other regions.
Increase in the use ot both coal-
fired and nuclear electric gener-
ating facilities and projected
increases in the production of
organic and inorganic chemicals.
of
ol
Inc reased
ogies at municipal waste treat-
ment facilities.
gies at municipal waste tr
ien t f ac i 1 i t ies.
Increased discharge primarily
attributable to increases in
the transportation of oii and
related substances.
1-
Wh lie di ssolved sol ids
will increase, it is not
expected that they will
exceed discharge
standards.
An overall decline in the
discharge of nitrogen by
point sources to below
1975 levels.
An overall decline in the
discharge of phosphorus by
point sources to below
1975 levels.
OveralL decline in the
national point sources
discharge of oil and
grease to below 1975
leve 1 s.
laneous pesticide releases are important in
the South Central Region (VI) , and fungicide
releases are greatest in the Northwest
Region (X).
Drinking Water
Public concern about the quality of drinking
water supplies has risen sharply since the early
1970s. The discovery of asbestos fibers in the
water supply system of Duluth, Minnesota, and of
66 organic compounds in the water supply of New
Orleans helped spark this concern. By 1978,
nearly 700 organic compounds had been identified
in U.S. drinking water supplies. The signifi-
cance of many of these is unknown, but questions
have been raised about their possible
relationship to cancer, genetic mutation, and
birth deformities.
The Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974 has
provided a focus for nationwide efforts to
upgrade drinking water supplies. At present,
however, many small water supply systems cannot
meet the primary drinking water standards for
such basic indicators as fecal coliforms and
toxic metals concentration.
Trends in drinking water quality are
influenced more by treatment improvements than by
trends in the concentrations of contaminants in
raw water source. Thus, the effects of the Safe
Drinking Water Act should be to improve drinking
water quality, at least with respect to regulated
constituents such as radionuclides, microbiologi-
cal contaminants, certain inorganic compounds,
and chlorinated organic compounds.
Despite this, the quality of drinking water
will be affected by the quality of raw water
supplies, especially for less effective small
treatment systems and for potentially hazardous
constituents not yet identified as such.
Many raw water supplies receive the waste-
water discharges of hundreds of upstream indus-
tries and municipalities. Trends in discharges
from such sources are summarized below:
o Population is projected to increase in all
federal regions between now and 2000. Thus,
the potential for discharge of viable bac-
teria and viruses, suspect organic com-
pounds, and toxic metals is expected to
increase. However, more treatment is
expected to occur in centralized facilities,
which promises better overall control of
contaminant discharges.
o Discharges of oil and grease—a category
that includes many toxic organic com-
pounds—is projected to decline by 30 per-
cent between 1975 and 2000. However,
discharges from two of the main sources of
toxic "oil and grease," (petroleum storage
and refining, and organic chemicals) are
projected to increase significantly over the
period.
o Cadmium, chromium, cyanide, copper, and
phenol discharges are all expected to
decline in response to environmental control
placed on the major sources of these toxic
substances.
Research emphasis is being placed on surface
and underground hazardous waste disposal pro-
blems, identification of sole source aquifers,
8
-------
treatment plant technologies, and drinking water
quality assurance.
Water Resources
Viewed nationally, the United States appears
to possess ample supplies of water. However, the
uneven distribution of precipitation and
competition for use of water is causing, and will
continue to cause severe water problems in some
regions. In particular:
o The use of ground water has been increasing
gradually. Substantial groundwater over-
draft is occurring in some parts of the
nation. Severe water quality and contamina-
tion problems are menacing some groundwater
sys tems.
o Agriculture is the dominant water use for
both withdrawals and consumption. A prime
candidate for water conservation is improved
irrigation efficiency.
o Especially in the West, energy development
will compete with other water uses.
According to the Water Resources Council's
Second Rational Water Assessment, the total
amount of water available for use in the conter-
minous United States is 675 billion gallons per
day (bgd). Total freshwater withdrawals from
surface and ground sources were about 339 bgd in
1975. The Council estimates that because of
increased conservation and improved technology,
withdrawals will decline by 9 percent in 2000 to
306 bgd. However, total offstreair. consumption is
projected to increase by 27 percent, from 107 bgd
in 1975 to 135 bgd in 2000. This is important
since water consumed is not available for other
downstream uses or as a source for recharging
aquifers.
Other significant points are:
o Agriculture and steam electricity generation
account for most freshwater withdrawals, and
the relative shares are not expected to
change between 1975 and 2000.
o Irrigated agriculture accounts for about 80
percent of total water consumption in the
SELECTED WATER QUALITY CONSTITUENT VIOLATIONS IN
138a MUNICIPAL SUPPLY SOURCES, 1955-1977
Number Percentage
Water Quality Recommended of Means Number in in
Constituent Limit Available3 Violation Violation
Biological
Fecal coliforms
2,000/100 mlb
66
16
24
Total coliforms
20,000/100 ml15
43
9
21
Biochemical oxygen
5.0 mg/lc
64
5
8
demand
Dissolved oxygen*®
5.0 mg/lc
91
1
1
Chemicale
Arsenic
0.05 mg/le
63
4
6
Barium
1.0 rag/1
38
0
0
Boron
0.750 mg/lc
40
0
0
Cadmium
0.01 tag/1
61
14
23
Chloride
250 mg/1
127
1
1
Chromium
0.05 mg/1
41
0
0
Copper
1.0 mg/1
68
1
2
Iron
0.3 mg/1
45
7
16
Lead
0.05 mg/1
60
6
10
Manganese
0.05 mg/1
40
14
35
pH (lower limit)e
5
110
1
1
pH (upper limit)
9
110
3
3
Silver
0.05 mg/lc
50
0
0
Sulfate
250 mg/1
111
1
1
Zinc
5.0 mg/1
62
0
0
Constituent coverage varies considerably among monitoring stations.
^Recommended limits as defined by National Academy of Sciences, Water Quality
Criteria, 1972 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1972), No.
5501-00520.
Arbitrary benchmark established by the Council on Environmental Quality.
^Values below these limits are considered in violation.
eRecommended limits as defined by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Quality Criteria for Water (Washington, D.C., 1976), EPA-44019-76-023.
Source: UPGRADE, based on EPA'e STORET system data.
9
-------
Distribution of Total Freshwater Withdrawals and
Consumption by Functional Use
1975 and 2000
WITHDRAWALS
lllllllll DOMESTIC AND COMMERCIAL li!'!'!il'll MANUFACTURING AND MINERALS
V / / / f\ AGRICULTURE H PUBLIC LANDS AND OTHER
STEAM ELECTRIC GENERATION
1975 PERCENTAGES
101
2000 PERCENTAGES
CONSUMPTION
2000 PERCENTAGE
1975 PERCENTAGE
Source: Adapted from U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's
Water Resources: 1975-2000. Vol. I, Summary, Second
National Water Assessment, U.S. GP0, Washington, D.C.,
December 1978, pp. 30-31.
United States. Consumption for such use is
projected to increase between 1975 and 2000,
but the relative proportion used by agricul-
ture is expected to decrease because of pro-
jected increases in water consumption for
steam electric generation and manufacturing.
o Water consumption for steam electric genera-
tion is projected to increase from 1 percent
of national water consumption in 1975 to 8
percent in 2000. While this growth does not
appear to raise significant problems, the
water requirements for developing a large
coal-based synthetic fuels industry do,
particularly in the water-short West. Water
consumption for energy development for
Region VIII would result in an increase from
56 million gallons per day in 1975 to 732
million gallons per day under high growth
conditions.
Ocean Pollution
The oceans are an important international
resource which are being impacted by several
types of pollution. Pollution of the marine
environment from ocean dumping and discharge is
expected to decrease in the next 20 years due to
application of environmental controls. On the
other hand, pollution of the marine environment
due to oil spills may increase, due to forecast
increases in offshore oil and gas production and
in shipment of oil by tankers, although
historical trends are unclear.
Important details include:
o The number of tanker-related oil spill
incidents in U.S. coastal waters is expected
to decline between 1980 and 2000. However,
10
-------
because Canker sizes are increasing,
individual spills may get larger, and the
trend in total oil spill volume is unclear.
o Offshore oil drilling is expected to
increase. Although there has been no clear
trend in the volume of oil spilled due to
offshore drilling in the last 8 years, this
increase in activity may result in an
increase in spillage.
o Dumping sewage sludge into the ocean is
expected to diminish rapidly after 1980,
when provisions of the Marine Protection,
Research and Sanctuaries Act are
implemented.
Volume of Oil Spilled in U.S. Coastal Waters
1972-1978
•J
<
O
z
o
i—i
9
1978
1974
1976
1972
* ESTIMATED TOTALS YEAR
Source: U.S. Coast Guard, "Polluting Inci-
dents in and around U.S. Waters"
(publications in years 1973, 1974,
1975, 1976, 1977.)
Trend of Ocean Dumping, Excluding Dredged Material
1949-2000
12
8
6
4
2
1960
1970
1990
1950
1980
YEAR
Note: Quantities from 1949 to 1968 are five
year averages. Projections are based
on regulatory schedules, see text.
Source: Council on Environmental Quality
"Ocean Dumping: A National Policy",
October 1970.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
"Annual Report on Administration of
the Ocean Dumping Permit Program"
(The first through sixth editions.)
o Dumping of dredge spoil, a large volume
waste, is projected to increase slightly in
future years as a result of harbor and
channel maintenance.
Solid and Hazardous Wastes
The annual generation of all solid wastes
studied (primarily hazardous wastes, municipal
solid wastes, industrial solid wastes, mining and
related wastes, and secondary solid wastes) is
expected to increase between 1975 and 2000. In
almost all cases, gains made in waste reduction
and resource recovery are not expected to offset
the projected increases in generation. Hence,
the annual solid waste disposal requirement is
also expected to increase.
These increases can be attributed to four
underlying causes; economic growth, population
growth, the move toward coal as an energy source,
and increasingly more stringent regulation of air
and water pollutant discharges. These forces act
synergistically as well as individually.
Important details include the following:
o Hazardous waste generation is expected to
double between 1975 and 2000 in the absence
of production process changes. Ensuring the
safe disposal of these hazardous wastes and
correcting past mistakes in hazardous waste
disposal are two of the most critical
problems facing EPA in the future.
o Under a "business as usual scenario," both
municipal and industrial solid waste genera-
tion are expected to increase moderately.
o Generation of mining and related solid
wastes is expected at least to double and
perhaps triple between 1975 and 2000. Min-
ing and related solid wastes are projected
to remain the largest single type of solid
waste (by weight) in the United States.
Major initiatives in the development of oil
shale would contribute significantly to the
increases.
o Under assumptions of full compliance with
air and water pollution regulations, annual
generation of secondary wastes is expected
to increase sharply between 1975 to 2000,
becoming a major source of solid wastes well
before 2000.
Inadequate disposal of solid wastes causes
numerous problems. The most critical problem is
the exposure of humans to toxic and otherwise
dangerous chemicals through groundwater contami-
nation. Other problems include surface water
pollution, air pollution, and land degradation.
These problems are most critical for hazardous
wastes.
11
-------
Generation of Solid Wastes
H
o
H
W
<
PQ
Pn
o
ss
o
M
H
CJ
s
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Other
Food
Land
Paper
Wood
Ferrous Metals
Municipal Sewage Sludge
Industrial Sludge
Noncombustible Solid Waste
(Oil Shale
Wastes)
77:
/
1975 2000
HAZARDOUS
1971 2000
MUNICIPAL
SOLID
1971 2000
INDUSTRIAL
SOLID
1975 2000
MINING AND
RELATED
1
1975 2000
SECONDARY
Substances
Several significant toxics' considerations
are:
Toxic
Toxic substances are a pervasive environ-
mental problem. Some toxics appear in the
"natural" environment, but human technologies are
creating thousands of new substances annually and
transporting, concentrating, or dispersing toxics
within the environment. Federal legislation of
the last decade has resulted in a comprehensive
program to restrict exposure to toxic substances
in the environment by regulating toxics at all
points, from production to ultimate disposal.
Complete implementation of all federal
regulations cannot guarantee an end to all
toxics' hazards. Identification of a substance
as hazardous often results in substitution of a
new substance that may pose new risks. In
agriculture, for example, the need for "economic
poisons" will continue. In addition, an unknown
number of toxic problems are "sunk" in the
environment and in our bodies. After a latent
period of as long as 20 to 30 years, these
problems may appear as future "Love Canals,"
changes in reproductive function or genetic
makeup, or as cancers.
o In recent years, almost 1,000 new chemicals
have been introduced annually, and the 6
percent rate of growth in production in all
chemical industries is twice that of all
industrial production. This trend is
projected to continue with production of
some chemicals growing at a much higher
rate. Chemicals will continue to be
potential hazards.
o The combined mortality rate for all cancers
has shown a slow, but constant growth in the
United States. As a result of cancer onset
latency (20 to 30 years), the latest avail-
able cancer mortality rates reflect expo-
sures to carcinogens that occurred
immediately after World War II. The drama-
tic increase in production and use of chemi-
cals, many of which have been found to be
carcinogenic, in the United States since
1950 may eventually be reflected in a rapid
acceleration of cancer incidence in the
1980s.
12
-------
Production in the Chemical Industries
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
w 300
a 230
250
200
200
BASIC'CHEMICALS
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
150
150
TOTAL MANAFACTURING
100
100
1965
1975
1985 1990
2000
YEAR
Source: Industrial Production Index, Chemical
and Engineering News June 11, 1978,
p. 36.
SEAS Projection: SEAS High Growth
Scenario.
Cigarette Consumption and Lung Cancer Mortality
in the United States
350
300
8 250
8
5 200
u
Cm
h
HEART
150 -
f-i
<
as
CANCER
100
, ACCIDENTS
INFLUENZA S
PNEUMONIA
"HOMOCIDES
1900
1930
1976
YEAR
Source: Schneiderman, M.A., "The Links Between
Environment and Health", in National
Conference on the Environment and
Health Care Costs, Paul Rogers and
George Brown sponsors, U.S. GPO,
Washington, D.C., August 15, 1978.
Mortality Rates in the United States
SMOKING
LUNG CANCER
'SMOKING
,~*— WOMEN
LUNG'
CANCER
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
YEAR
Source: Ames, B.N., Science 204, 1979, p. 587
o The principal hazard to most people appears
to be from chronic toxicity—the effect of
prolonged or repeated exposures to chemical
agents in the environment (air, water, food,
etc.). The fact that toxic residues have
been measured in human tissues and mothers'
milk make this a cause for concern. Some
occupational situations or accidents result
in acute toxic effects--death or impairment
of bodily function—from a single or short-
term dose.
o The market share held by organophosphate
insecticides is increasing, while that of
organochlorines (chlorinated hydrocarbons)
is decreasing. Thus, persistent products
capable of producing chronic effects are
being replaced by those that are more
readily degraded but that are also more
capable of producing acute toxic effects.
o Federal regulations can bring about economic
as well as environmental benefits. In at
least one segment of the plastics industry—
vinyle chloride production—federal regula-
tions to reduce exposure to workers to
toxicants seem to have improved production
efficiency.
13
-------
SOME PESTICIDES IN THE MILK OF 1,400 WOMEN
Num-
Mean
ber
of posi-
Maxi-
Compound
pos l-
tives
mum
tive
(ug/kg
(ug/kg
(%)
fat) a
fat)
DDE
100
3521
214,167
DDT
99
529
34,369
Dieldrin
81
164
12,300
Heptachlor
64
91
2,050
epoxide
Oxychlordane
63
96
5,700
(3-BHC
87
183
9,217
t>CB's
30
2,076
12,600
a4.5 percent = mean fat content. 99 percent
detectable PCB's; (30 percent = >1,100 ug per
kilogram of fat) (1,038 women. Environmental
Protection Agency, 1977).
Apparent Domestic Consumption of Pesticides
TOTAL APPARENT DOMESTIC
CONSUMPTION
ORGANOPHOSPHATES
k" TOTAL
CARBAMATES
TOTAL
CHLORINATED
HYDROCARBONS - TOTAL
(O)
U- OTHER-ORGANIC
BOTANICALS
INORGANICS (A)
Source: Stanford Research Institute Chemical
Economics Handbook, 573.3007, July 1976.
1965
1970 1975
YEAR
1980
14
-------
RESIDUES OF PCB's IN HUMAN TISSUE, FY 1972-FY 1975
Percent Detected with PCB's
Sample
Year Size Total < 1 ppm 1-2 ppm 1-3 ppm > 2 ppm > 3 ppm
FY
1972
4,100
74.0
15.5
N.A.
50.7
N.A.
7.9
FY
1973
1,277
75.5
40.2
29.6
N.A.
5.5
N.A
FY
1974
1,047
90.9
50.6
35.4
N.A.
4.9
N.A
FY
1975
779
94.3
56.1
N.A.
27.6
N.A.
10.7
FY - Fiscal Year.
N.A. - Not Available.
Details may not add to totals due to rounding.
Sources: FY 1972 - FY 1974: Kutz and Strassman, "Residues of PCB's
in the General Population of the United States," Table 2,
p. 142.
FY 1975: Environmental Protection Agency, Ecological
Monitoring Branch, unpublished data.
15
-------
Radiation
On the basis of its physical effects, radia-
tion can be divided into two categories: ioniz-
ing and nonionizing. Ionizing radiation has
enough quantum energy to ionize atoms and mole-
cules on which it interacts, possibly causing
radiation damage in the process. Ionizing
radiation typically consists of X-rays, gamma
rays, or charged particles from medical or
nuclear sources. Everyone is exposed to natural
background levels of ionizing radiation, averag-
ing about 100 millirem per year. Artificial
sources lead to nearly that much again, and their
use is increasing. This trend is a matter of
concern since ionizing radiation can cause
adverse health effects, including cancer, genetic
effects, and growth impairment.
Several important points are:
o Ionizing radiation is known to cause cancer
at high doses, but the potential health
effects of low doses are the subject of
scientific controversy. On the basis of
statistical evidence, it has been inferred
that perhaps 3,500 cancer deaths per year (1
percent of U.S. cancer deaths) are attribut-
able to background radiation. Occupational
doses constitute less than 1 percent of
total population exposure, but may be
important to the exposed persons since doses
often range up to 5 or 10 times that of
natural background exposure.
o Medical diagnostic procedures are the
largest artificial source of exposure to
ionizing radiation for the general public.
The annual per capita dose is comparable to
natural background, and the outlook is for
increased medical use of radiation
procedures.
TRENDS IN RADIATION DOSE TO U.S. POPULATION
FROM DIAGNOSTIC RADIOLOGY
Population Genetically significant
Year (millions) dose (million person-rem)
I960
183
11.1
1964
192
11.7
1970
205
14.7
1975
213
15.3
1985
234
16.8
2000
262
18.8
SOURCE:
Calculated
from SEAS High Growth Scenario
populat ion
projections with dose rates
taken.
o Nuclear energy activities provide a very
small part of the radiation exposure of the
general public in normal operations, but
they have been the subject of much public
concern and debate. The greatest environ-
RADIATION DOSE TO U.S. POPULATION
U.S. General Population
Collective Dose Millions of Person- Per Capita Average
Estimates - 1978 remsa per Year (in millirem/yr)
Source:
Natural background 20 100
Technologically enhanced 1 5
Medical and dental 18 90
Nuclear weapons fallout 1.3 6.5
Nuclear weapons develop-
ment, testing, and
production 0.0002
Nuclear energy 0.06
Consumer products 0.006
Occupational 0.231
Source: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, "Report
of the Interagency Task Force on the Health Effects of
Non-Ionizing Radiation," June 1979, p. 15.
16
-------
mental concerns are radioactive waste dis-
posal, still an unsolved problem, and
reactor safety, especially since the
accident at the Three Mile Island plant.
Future trends are very much in doubt, but
projections of nuclear capacity have been
declining steadily over the past 8 years.
Nonionizing radiation is electromagnetic
radiation with insufficient quantum energy to
ionize atoms and molecules. It includes
radiation in the spectrum from power line
frequencies to ultraviolet light. But, at
present, the greatest environmental concern
centers on radiowaves and microwaves of
frequencies between 30 MHz and 3 GHz.
Several important points are:
o The recent proliferation of communications,
radar, and other electronic devices has
fostered concern for public and occupational
exposure to nonionizing radiation. It is
anticipated that the number of sources will
continue to grow.
o The primary effects on nonionizing radiation
in the human body are heat-induced at high
power levels, well above the OSHA standard.
These include heat stress, burns, and
cataracts. At very low exposure levels
there is some evidence, especially from
eastern European research, of behavioral
effects, but existing data are insufficient
to resolve the controversy over this point.
o In the United States, less than 1 percent of
the population is exposed to levels above
0.001 milliwatts per cm^. The U.S. occu-
pational standard is 10 milliwatts per
cm^) while the standard for public expo-
sure in the USSR is 0.001 milliwatts per
cm^,
Nuclear Power Growth Estimates
Source: Adapted from Testimony of James R.
Schlesinger, Assistant to the President,
Before the Subcommittee on Fossil and
Nuclear Energy Research, Development
and Demonstration of the Committee on
Science and Technology, United States
House of Representatives, June 7, 1977,
Table 1.
Note: It requires about one quad of thermal
energy to generate 16 QWE of electrical
power for a year, in a nuclear plant,
assuming 60 percent capacity. U.S.
Department of Energy. National Energy
Plan II. May 1979, p. 40.
*Number of plants operating and under construc-
tion. (July 1979)
AEC-1972
AEC-1974
AEC-ERDA1975
ERDA-1976
ERDA-1977
DOE-1979
1975 1980
1985 1990
YEAR
1995 2000
17
-------
KRKgUKNCY
(HKRTZ)
I \h
I KHi
1 (.11/
15
10 \h
2\
10 II/.
24
10 H;
10"' Hz
The Radiation Spectrum
KLKCTRJCPOWKR
RADIO WAVKS
MICKOWAVKS
L__
tkrrfstrial
INFRARED SOLAR SPLCTRl'M
1 T
I LTRAVIOLKT
~V~
\ RAY.S
I
(iAMMA KAYS, \l I'll Uil I \
VISIBLK
N
COSMIC RAYS
Note: Alpha anc Beta radiation have energy com-
parable to gamma rays, but are particles
not electromagnetic radiation.
Source: Human Health and the Environment. Some
Research Needs. Report of the Second
Task Force for Research Planning in
Environmental Health Sciences. DHEW
Publication No. NIH 77-1277, 1977.
Trend in United States Electronic Sales
by Industry Group
Source: Adapted from Electronic Market Data
Book: 1979. Electronic Industries
Association, Washington, D.C. 1979.
pp. 2, 75.
Note: a. Government is included in communi-
cations equipment and industrial
electronic component, but is broken
down separately for convenience.
YEAR
1990
18
-------
POPULATION EXPOSURES TO RADIOFREQUENCY/RADIATION
Cumulative Percentage of U.S. Population
Power Density Exposed to Radiofrequency Radiation
(mW/cm^) Greater than Level Specified
10. (U.S. occupational standard)
1.0 (U.S. standard for microwave oven
at 5 cm distance)
0.01
(U.S.S.R. occupational standard)
—
0.001
(U.S.S.R. public standard)
0.5
0.0005
1
0.0002
2.5
0.0001
5
0.00005
8
0.00001
31
0.000005
51
Source: Tell, R.A. and E.D. Mantiply, "Population Exposure to VHF
and UHF Broadcast Radiation in the United States," EPA
Publication OPR/EAD 78-5, Las Vegas, NV, June 1978.
Noise
Millions of Americans are currently exposed
to noise levels above the standards EPA has set
to protect public health and safety. Unless
proposed regulations are put into effect, con-
tinued population and economic growth are
expected to cause increases in both noise levels
and exposure. For example, the number of jet
aircraft flights is projected to increase to more
than 20 million annually by the year 2000, com-
pared with 8.3 million flights in 1975. And the
number of surface vehicle miles driven annually
is projected to be as many as 5.1 trillion miles
in 2000 as compared to 2.3 trillion in 1975. How
either or both increases will affect noise levels
and exposure depends largely on whether rules and
policies suggested by EPA go into effect.
Community background noise levels are regu-
lated by state and local governments. Although
extensive regulation by these governments is
frequently ineffective, trends in this kind of
noise will depend primarily on the degree of
urbanization of future growth patterns and
whether state and local governments become more
effective as noise regulators.
Until recently, it was the auditory effects
of noise, such as loss of hearing, that were of
concern. More attention is now being given to
extra-auditory effects, including determining
whether noise levels are connected with heart
disease and high blood pressure. Research in
social effects, such as disrupting learning,
speaking, and listening is also receiving
increased attention.
Growth in Commercial Aircraft and Surface Vehicle Traffic
by the Year 2000
Commercial
Aircraft
Surface
Vehicles
\
100
200
300
percent of 1975 value
Wyle Labs 1979
Environmental Outlook 1980 Low and High Growth Scenarios
19
-------
Energy
A close relationship exists between the
production, transportation, and consumption of
energy resources and environmental impacts to
air, water, and land. The national supply of
energy is projected to increase in our High
Growth Scenrio at an annual rate of 2.1 percent
between 1975 and 2000. Directly corresponding to
this increase is an increase in the level of
gross pollutants generated by energy activities.
Despite the implementation of regulations
requiring the use of pollution control devices,
the net discharges of pollutants are also
expected to increase due to an overall increase
in the number of energy-related facilities.
Overall trends in various media were described
above, including the identification of the major
pollutant sources.
ENERGY SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
Projection/ Total Quads (10'6)
Scenario in 2000
Environmental Outlook 1980
High Growth 124
National Energy Plan3 119
CEQ Good News (high
conservation)'5 85
aU.S. Department of Energy, May 1979.
''Council on Environmental Quality, The Good News
About Energy, 1979.
Several important points are:
o Compliance with air emission control regu-
lations by the mid-1980s is projected to
cause a slight decline in net air pollution
emissions from transportation and combustion
sources. However, as the number of sources
increases, net emission levels for a number
of these pollutants are expected to rise to
levels slightly above those in 1975. The
tendency for this to occur will be increased
if additional air pollution control regula-
tions are not instituted during the mid-
1980s. (Variations among air pollutants are
described in the Air section above.)
o Discharges of water pollutants are generally
not produced by energy-related activities
except for mining. Two notable exceptions
are discharges of total dissolved solids
from the electric utility and industrial
boilers, and discharges of oil and grease
from the petroleum industry. Net discharges
of total dissolved solids are projected to
increase by 195 percent between 1975 and
2000, and greater than 60 percent of this
discharge is attributable to boiler blowdown
operations at electric power generation
stations. Releases of oil and grease are
projected to increase by 125 percent between
1975 and 2000, due to increases in the
number and capacity of petroleum refining
and storage operations. (See the Water
section above.)
o The generation of solid waste by energy-
related facilities is also projected to
increase between 1975 and 2000. Noncombust-
ible solid waste, primarily ash from
electric utilities, is expected to increase
by 160 percent over 1975 levels, while
industrial sludges, generated from electric
utility stack gas scrubbers, are projected
to increase dramatically (tenfold) as a
result of regulations for the control of air
emissions. Coal burning electric facilities
are projected to generate roughly 70 percent
of all industrial sludges by 1985 and 80
percent by the year 2000. (See the Solid
and Hazardous Waste section above.)
o Under low economic growth conditions, all of
the major environmental problems identified
for high growth conditions are projected to
occur, but to a lesser degree.
o Conservation of energy and increased use of
solar energy technologies could signifi-
cantly mitigate the energy-related environ-
mental problems of the high growth
conditions, particularly if these measures
reduced the demand for coal and synthetic
fuels.
20
-------
Primary Energy Production Nation
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Other
Uranium
1975
Total = 73.1 Quads
(Supply, Nation, 1975)
Other
Uranium
Coal
2000
Total = 124.4 Quads
(Supply, Region, 2000)
21
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