EPA 908 1-76-005 DECEMBER 1975 MONTANA AQMA AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY US. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY REGION VIII AIR & HAZARDOUS MATERIALS DIVISION DENVER.COLORADO 80203 ------- EPA-908/1-76-005 PEDCo - ENVIRONMENTAL MONTANA AQMA AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY Prepared by PEDCo-ENVIRONMENTAL SPECIALISTS, INC. Suite 13, Atkinson Square Cincinnati, Ohio 45246 Contract No. 68-02-1375 Task Order No. 19 EPA Project Officer: David Kircher U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Region VIII Air Planning and Operations Section Denver, Colorado 80203 SUITE 13 • ATKINSON SQUARE CINCINNATI. OHIO 45246 S 1 3 / 7 7 1 -4 3 3 O Prepared for Suite 110, Crown Center Kiniat City, Mo. 64108 BRANCH OFFICES Suit* 104-A, Profeulonal village Chapel Hill, N.C. 27814 December 1975 ffaaxpo ------- This report was furnished to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by PEDCo-Environmental Specialists, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio, in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-02-1375, Task Order No. 19. The contents of this report are repro- duced herein as received from the contractor. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Environmental Protection Agency. Material included in this report was not originally intended for publication, but to document the data sources and assumptions made in preparing the area source emission inventory. Therefore, the text may be sketchy and the report more useful as a resource document than a general procedures manual for emission inventories. It should also be pointed out that the area source emission inventory is subject to frequent updating so that data presented herein may soon become obsolete. Publication No. EPA-908/1-76-005 ------- CONTENTS Page SUMMARY 1 1. BITUMINOUS COAL 1-1 2. DISTILLATE OIL 2-1 3. RESIDUAL OIL 3-1 4. NATURAL GAS 4-1 5. OTHER FUELS 5-1 6. OPEN BURNING 6-1 7. HIGHWAY MOBILE SOURCES 7-1 8. OFF-HIGHWAY VEHICLES 8-1 9. RAILROADS 9-1 10. AIRCRAFT 10-1 11. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 11-1 12. UNPAVED ROADS 12-1 13. AGRICULTURE 13-1 14. CONSTRUCTION 14-1 15. AGGREGATE STORAGE PILES 15-1 16. DUST FROM PAVED ROADS 16-1 APPENDIX A POPULATION PROJECTION A-l ASSUMPTIONS APPENDIX B VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED AND B-l AVERAGE TRAFFIC SPEEDS, BILLINGS, MONTANA APPENDIX C PROJECTION OF PARTICULATE C-l EMISSIONS FROM UNPAVED ROADS BY COUNTY REFERENCES 1 i i ------- FIGURES No. Page 12.1 Distribution of ADT vs. Percent of Miles 12-7 of Unpaved Roads B.l Billings, Montana Urban Area B-2 B.2 Missoula, Montana Urban Area B-7 iii ------- TABLES No. Page 1 Area Source Particulate Emissions 3 2 Area Source Sulfur Dioxide Emissions 5 1.1 1974 Area Source Coal Emissions 1-3 2.1 1974 Area Source Distillate Fuel Oil 2-2 Consumption 2.2 1974 Area Source Distillate Oil Emissions 2-5 2.3 Projections of Residential Consumption of 2-7 Distillate Fuel Oil 2.4 Projections of Commercial-Institutional 2-8 Consumption of Distillate Fuel Oil 2.5 Projections of Industrial Consumption of 2-10 Distillate Fuel Oil 3.1 1974 Residual Oil Consumption 3-2 3.2 1974 Residual Oil Emissions 3-4 3.3 Projections of Commercial-Institutional 3-6 Usage of Residual Oil 3.4 Projections of Industrial Consumption of 3-7 Residual Oil 4.1 1974 Area Source Natural Gas Emissions 4-2 4.2 Projections of Natural Gas Emissions 4-4 5.1 1974 Area Source Wood Emissions 5-2 5.2 1974 Area Source LPG Consumption 5-4 5.3 1974 Area Source LPG Emissions 5-6 5.4 Projection of Other Fuel Emissions—Wood 5-7 5.5 Projection of Other Fuel Emissions—LPG 5-9 6.1 1974 Area Source Open Burning Emissions 6-2 6.2 Projection of Agricultural Burning Emissions 6-6 iv ------- 7.1 Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled by 7-2 Vehicle Type 7.2 1974 Area Source Vehicle Emissions 7-4 7.3 VMT Projection by County 7-5 7.4 Highway Mobile Source Emission Projection 7-7 8.1 Off-Highway Gasoline Fuel Consumption 8-2 8.2 Off-Highway Diesel Fuel Consumption 8-4 8.3 1974 Off-Highway Emissions—Gasoline and 8-5 Diesel 8.4 Economic Activity Growth Factors 8-8 8.5 Projection of Off-Highway Vehicle Emissions 8-9 9.1 1974 Railroad Operating Data 9-2 9.2 1974 Railroad Emissions 9-5 10.1 1974 Airport LTO Cycles 10-2 10.2 1974 LTO Cycles by Aircraft Type 10-4 10.3 1974 Aircraft Emissions 10-5 10.4 Projected 1979 and 1987 Aircraft Operations 10-7 10.5 Aircraft Activity Growth Factor 10-8 10.6 Projection of Aircraft Emissions 10-9 12.1 1974 Montana Unpaved Roads 12-2 12.2 1974 Particulate Emissions 12-5 12.3 VMT Projection by County 12-8 12.4 Unpaved Roads Particulate Matter Emission 12-10 Factor Development 12.5 Average ADT on Unpaved Roads 12-11 12.6 Summary of Particulate Emissions 12-12 Projections from Unpaved Roads 13.1 1974 Agriculture Emissions 13-2 v ------- 13.2 Agricultural Operations 13-10 13.3 Summary of Windblown Dust and Agricultural 13-11 Operations Emissions 13.4 Development of Agricultural Growth Factors 13-12 13.5 Projections of Windblown Dust Emissions 13-13 13.6 Projections of Agricultural Operations 13-15 Emissions 14.1 1974 Highway Construction 14-3 14.2 1974 Area Source Construction Emissions 14-4 14.3 Projected Highway Construction 14-7 15.1 1974 Area Source Emissions from Aggregate 15-2 Storage Piles 16.1 Emissions from Paved Roads 16-2 16.2 Paved Roads Particulate Emission Projection 16-4 A Montana AQMA County Population Projections A-3 B.l Estimation of Baseline VMT, Billings B-3 B.2 Comparison of Trip Generation and Travel B-4 Characteristics, Billings B.3 Projections of VMT and Travel Speeds, B-5 Billings B.l Estimation of Baseline VMT, Missoula B-8 B.2 Comparison of Trip Generation and Travel B-9 Characteristics, Missoula B.3 Projections of VMT and Travel Speeds, B-10 Missoula B.4 Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle Type, B-ll Billings and Missoula C.l Summary of Flathead County Unpaved Road C-l Emission Projection C.2 Summary of Lake County Unpaved Road C-2 Emission Projections vi ------- C.3 Summary of Missoula County Unpaved Road C-3 Emission Projection C.4 Summary of Lewis & Clark County Unpaved C-4 Road Emission Projection C.5 Summary of Deer Lodge County Unpaved Road C-5 Emission Projection C.6 Summary of Silver Bow County Unpaved Road C-6 Emission Projection C.7 Summary of Yellowstone County (Billings) C-7 Unpaved Road Emission Projection C.8 Summary of Carbon County Unpaved Road C-8 Emission Projection C.9 Summary of Stillwater County Unpaved Road C-9 Emission Projection C.10 Summary of Sweetgrass County Unpaved Road C-10 Emission Projection C.ll Summary of Big Horn County Unpaved Road C-ll Emission Projection C.12 Summary of Rosebud County Unpaved Road C-12 Emission Projection C.13 Summary of Treasure County Unpaved Road C-13 Emission Projection C.14 Summary of Custer County Unpaved Road C-14 Emission Projection C.15 Summary of Fallon County Unpaved Road C-15 Emission Projection C.16 Summary of Powder River County Unpaved Road C-16 Emission Projection C.17 Summary of Carter County Unpaved Road C-17 Emission Projection vii ------- SUMMARY This report presents a base year 1974 air pollutant emissions inventory of area sources in the six Montana Air Quality Maintenance Areas (AQMA's) and emission projections for 1980 and 1985. The Kalispell AQMA encompasses Flathead and Lake Counties and is designated for particulates. The Missoula AQMA contains only Missoula County and is designated for particulates and carbon monoxide (CO). The Helena AQMA contains only Lewis & Clark County and is designated for particulates and sulfur dioxide (SC^). The Anaconda-Butte AQMA includes Deer Lodge and Silver Bow Counties and is also designated for particulates and SOj• The Billings AQMA encompasses Yellowstone, Carbon, Stillwater, Sweetgrass, and Big Horn Counties and is designated for particulates, S02# and CO. The Coal Area AQMA includes Rosebud, Treasure, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, and Carter Counties and is designated for particulates and S02« Carbon monoxide emissions were not calculated for the Billings and Missoula AQMA's. These data are presented in a separate report on automotive emissions in these two AQMA's. A base year of 1974 was specified for the inventory in order that it would be consistent with the time frame of the point source emission inventory also being prepared. At the time that this inventory was done, 1974 was the most recent year for which data could be obtained for the entire year. The base year area source emissions are projected to two different future years—1980 and 1985—as part of this report. These analysis years are specified in the EPA regulations on preparation of AQMA plans. Emissions for some of the source categories were projected to the years 1 ------- 1980 and 1985 on the basis of expected population growth. The procedure used to make the population projections is outlined in Appendix A. The area source categories included in this inventory are shown in the Contents. The inventory includes all conventional source categories described in the Guide for Compiling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory/ APTD-1135, plus some additional categories of fugitive dust sources. Two of the conventional categories, incinerators and vessels, were excluded since few exist in the AQMA's. The base year annual emissions in tons, along with projected emissions, are shown in Table 1 and 2 for each inventoried source category. The survey data and methodol- ogy used to estimate emissions for each source category are documented in detail in the body of this report. The area source categories showing the greatest partic- ulate emissions are fugitive dust sources. Fugitive dust accounts for 91 percent of the area source particulate emissions in the Helena AQMA, 92 percent in the Missoula AQMA, 93 percent in the Kalispell and the Anaconda-Butte AQMA's, and 98 percent in the Coal Area AQMA. The largest fugitive dust source in all counties is traffic on unpaved roads. 2 ------- Table 1. AREA SOURCE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS (ton/yr) Source category Bit Dist Res Nat Other Open Off- Year/County coal oil oil gas fuels burn. Hwy hwy Rail 1974 Flathead neg 90 103 11 23 9028 235 38 45 Lake 4 37 13 neg 26 884 104 23 1 Missoula 17 73 102 18 18 3711 280 46 24 Lewis & Clark 2 21 26 12 9 5201 168 46 8 Deer Lodge neg 5 3 5 10 868 67 5 5 Silver Bow 4 19 26 16 8 978 160 27 10 Yellowstone 23 69 108 35 5 51 361 102 24 Carbon 18 5 2 1 1 406 60 19 6 Stillwater 6 3 3 neg 3 256 52 13 8 Sweetgrass 1 2 1 1 4 374 43 9 9 Big Horn 16 7 5 2 2 38 93 18 16 Rosebud 15 4 6 1 4 139 62 12 39 Treasure 5 1 neg neg neg 3 17 5 6 Custer 8 5 5 7 1 12 70 17 46 Fallon 7 1 2 6 neg 37 24 9 5 Powder River 6 2 1 4 2 484 22 11 neg Carter neg 3 neg neg 1 128 14 10 neg 1980 Flathead neg 102 124 12 24 9031 277 42 45 Lake 4 42 16 neg 29 885 122 25 1 Missoula 17 84 123 18 20 3712 384 50 24 Lewis & Clark 2 24 31 12 9 5203 194 51 8 Deer Lodge neg 6 3 5 10 868 75 5 5 Silver Bow 4 22 30 16 8 978 169 29 10 Yellowstone 23 76 122 39 5 59 531 116 24 Carbon 18 5 2 1 1 409 69 21 6 Stillwater 6 3 3 1 3 261 59 14 8 Sweetgrass 1 2 1 1 4 375 49 10 9 Big Horn 16 8 6 2 2 44 111 20 16 Rosebud 15 4 6 1 4 141 77 13 39 Treasure 5 1 neg neg neg 3 20 5 6 Custer 8 6 6 8 1 14 76 18 46 Fallon 7 1 2 6 neg 43 26 10 5 Powder River 6 neg 1 1 1 487 26 12 neg Carter neg 2 1 neg 1 131 17 11 neg 1985 Flathead neg 111 141 13 25 9032 278 44 45 Lake 4 45 18 neg 32 886 121 27 1 Missoula 17 93 139 21 21 3712 477 53 24 Lewis & Clark 2 27 35 14 10 5203 190 54 8 Deer Lodge neg 5 3 5 9 868 71 5 5 Silver Bow 4 23 34 17 9 978 152 31 10 Yellowstone 23 81 133 48 5 61 663 124 24 Carbon 18 5 3 1 1 409 66 24 6 Stillwater 6 3 4 2 3 263 57 16 8 Sweetgrass 1 2 1 1 4 376 48 11 9 Big Horn 16 8 7 2 2 45 112 22 16 Rosebud 15 4 9 2 4 142 82 15 39 Treasure 5 1 neg neg neg 4 19 6 6 Custer 8 6 6 10 1 14 71 21 46 Fallon 7 1 2 6 neg 44 25 11 5 Powder River 6 neg 1 neg neg 487 26 13 neg Carter neg 2 ' 1 neg 1 131 17 13 neg 3 ------- Table 1 (continued). AREA SOURCE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS (ton/yr) Source category Unpaved Paved Year/County Air roads Agri Const Aggreg roads Total 1974 Flathead 1 66,550 93 49 34 562 76,862 Lake neg 46,069 128 neg 33 233 47,555 Missoula 3 45,767 24 246 25 704 51,058 Lewis & Clark 3 55,434 76 33 27 406 61,472 Deer Lodge neg 11,574 18 neg 8 . 170 12,708 Silver Bow 2 14,270 7 1113 8 414 17,062 Yellowstone 8 44,900 3061 464 40 925 50,176 Carbon neg 29,480 1215 153 30 136 31,532 Stillwater neg 20,036 498 neg 21 123 21,022 Sweetgrass neg 14,609 84 16 46 103 15,302 Big Horn neg 32,761 981 64 64 221 34,288 Rosebud neg 23,608 851 neg 58 144 24,943 Treasure neg 3,699 1098 neg 13 43 4,890 Custer 1 17,270 1426 142 24 172 19,206 Fallon neg 14,856 445 neg 39 50 15,481 Powder River neg 13,130 110 129 9 48 13,958 Carter neg 8,607 138 neg 58 31 8,990 1980 Flathead 1 73,200 88 127 34 663 83,770 Lake neg 51,000 122 65 33 273 52,617 Missoula 3 56,000 23 137 25 964 61,584 Lewis & Clark 3 61,300 73 neg 27 467 67,404 Deer Lodge neg 12,000 17 neg 8 189 13,201 Silver Bow 2 14,800 7 26 8 439 16,548 Yellowstone 11 58,900 2975 465 40 1360 64,746 Carbon neg 31,900 1156 neg 30 155 33,773 Stillwater neg 20,800 489 neg 21 139 21,807 Sweetgrass neg 15,900 80 neg 46 118 16,596 Big Horn neg 37,300 984 798 64 263 39,634 Rosebud neg 28,200 846 2396 58 180 31,980 Treasure neg 4,200 1064 293 13 49 5,659 Custer 1 18,500 1416 294 24 187 20,605 Fallon neg 16,000 446 neg 39 55 16,640 Powder River neg 14,800 106 175 9 56 15,680 Carter neg 9,900 135 neg 58 37 10,293 1985 Flathead 2 80,900 85 78 34 783 91,571 Lake neg 53,800 117 neg 33 319 55,403 Missoula 4 63,500 23 243 25 1321 69,673 Lewis St Clark 4 65,900 71 18 27 537 72,100 Deer Lodge neg 12,700 16 neg 8 209 13,904 Silver Bow 2 15,200 6 neg 8 465 16,939 Yellowstone 13 66,800 1866 381 40 1999 72,261 Carbon neg 35,000 1110 neg 30 177 36,850 Stillwater neg 20,900 473 102 21 157 22,015 Sweetgrass neg 18,000 77 214 46 136 18,926 Big Horn neg 41,300 953 147 64 313 43,007 Rosebud neg 33,000 819 neg 58 225 34,414 Treasure neg 4,600 1024 neg 13 56 5,734 Custer 1 20,000 1369 179 24 204 21,960 Fallon neg 17,500 432 neg 39 61 18,133 Powder River neg 16,700 103 neg 9 65 17,410 Carter neg 11,400 130 neg 58 43 11,796 4 ------- Table 2. AREA SOURCE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (ton/yr) Source category Bit Dist Res Nat Other Off- Year/County coal oil oil gas fuels Hwy hwy Rail Air Total 1974 Flathead - 428 842 1 4 91 34 102 1 1503 Lake 6 177 107 neg 5 40 16 2 neg 353 Missoula 25 345 839 1 4 108 47 54 3 1426 Lewis & Clark 2 100 214 1 2 65 48 17 4 453 Deer Lodge - 23 25 neg 1 26 4 11 neg 90 Silver Bow 6 94 214 1 2 62 28 23 4 434 Yellowstone 34 322 880 2 2 140 96 56 13 1545 Carbon 26 18 19 neg neg 22 13 13 neg 111 Stillwater 10 16 23 neg neg 20 9 19 neg 97 Sweetgrass 2 11 6 neg 1 17 6 20 neg 63 Big Horn 23 31 50 neg 1 36 13 37 neg 191 Rosebud 21 17 50 neg 1 24 8 88 neg 209 Treasure 7 7 3 neg neg 7 3 14 neg 41 Custer 11 26 39 neg neg 27 14 106 neg 223 Fallon 10 7 10 neg neg 9 6 11 neg 53 Powder River 10 6 8 neg neg 9 7 neg neg 40 Carter - 11 6 neg neg 6 7 neg neg 30 1980 1753 Flathead - 484 1015 1 4 107 38 102 2 Lake 6 196 128 neg 5 47 18 2 neg 402 Missoula 25 398 1007 1 4 149 52 54 4 1694 Lewis & Clark 2 113 253 1 2 75 53 17 5 521 Deer Lodge - 22 26 neg 1 29 4 11 neg 93 Silver Bow 6 102 249 1 2 66 31 23 4 484 Yellowstone 34 358 995 2 2 206 109 56 18 1780 Carbon 26 21 21 neg neg 25 15 13 neg 121 Stillwater 10 17 28 neg neg 23 10 19 neg 107 Sweetgrass 2 11 7 neg 1 19 7 20 neg 67 Big Horn 23 34 47 neg 1 43 14 37 neg 199 Rosebud 21 20 62 neg 1 30 9 88 neg 231 Treasure 7 8 5 neg neg 8 4 14 neg 46 Custer 11 29 45 1 neg 30 15 106 neg 237 Fallon 10 8 10 neg neg 10 7 11 neg 56 Powder River 10 5 7 neg neg 10 8 neg neg 40 Carter - 10 6 neg neg 7 8 neg neg 31 1985 Flathead - 528 1151 1 4 127 40 102 3 1956 Lake 6 215 145 neg 5 55 19 2 neg 447 Missoula 25 442 1141 1 5 204 55 54 5 1932 Lewis & Clark 2 122 281 1 2 86 57 17 5 573 Deer Lodge - 23 26 neg 1 32 4 11 neg 97 Silver Bow 6 110 278 1 2 69 33 23 5 527 Yellowstone 34 496 1089 3 2 302 116 56 22 2120 Carbon 26 21 24 neg neg 29 16 13 neg 129 Stillwater 10 20 31 neg neg 26 11 19 neg 117 Sweetgrass 2 12 8 neg 1 22 7 20 neg 72 Big Horn 23 36 52 neg 1 51 15 37 neg 215 Rosebud 21 23 71 neg 2 37 10 88 neg 252 Treasure 7 9 6 neg neg 9 4 14 neg 49 Custer 11 17 50 1 neg 32 17 106 neg 234 Fallon 10 8 11 neg neg 11 8 11 neg 59 Powder River 10 4 8 neg neg 12 9 neg neg 43 Carter - 10 7 neg neg 8 8 neg neg 33 5 ------- 1. BITUMINOUS COAL DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The area source consumption of coal was determined by using the degree-day heating method for calculating resi- dential coal consumption. Commercial-institutional and industrial area source coal consumption were assumed to be negligible. Residential Of the coal distributors contacted, only three sold coal directly to the residential customer. These sales were usually picked up by the buyer. No record of where the coal was to be burned was kept. Only the total sales in tons were recorded for each company. These are listed below: 1974 Coal sales, Hamilton, Montana1 2 Butte, Montana 3 Roundup, Montana approximate tonnage 200 tons 760 tons 10,000 tons Due to the incompleteness of the coal distributors' records and the large area served, no conclusions could be drawn from this data. Therefore, only the estimates of coal consumption generated by the degree-day method were used to calculate emissions. Residential coal consumption was calculated using the 4 degree-day heating method. The general equation is: 1-1 ------- RFC = (DU) X (DD) X (HRF) X (R) (eq.l) where RFC = residential fuel consumption, tons DU = dwelling units DD = degree-days HRF = heating requirement factor, tons of coal per dwelling unit per degree-day R = correction factor for number of rooms per dwelling unit, average number of rooms/5.0 rooms In spite of population increases from 1970 to 1974 it was assumed that the number of 1970 dwelling units using 5 coal was representative of 1974. According to information provided by the coal distributors, the decrease in coal sales evident in recent years had leveled off and coal sales were now increasing. Therefore, it was felt that a reason- able estimate for residential coal consumption could be based on the number of dwelling units using coal in 1970. The number of degree-days was determined for each county from the nearest National Weather Service (NWS) reporting station.^ The heating requirement factor for tons of coal burned is 0.0012 tons/dwelling unit/degree-day. The average number of rooms per dwelling unit was determined from reference 5. The data needed to calculate coal con- sumption and the calculated coal consumption are listed in Table 1.1. Commercial-Institutional Since the 1974 calculated residential coal consumption for the AQMA counties was greater than the Bureau of Mines 7 retail dealers bituminous coal figure for the state, it was assumed that the commercial-institutional coal consump- 4 tion area source emissions were negligible. 1-2 ------- Table 1.1. 1974 AREA SOURCE COAL EMISSIONS Residential 1974 Emissions, 1970 DU 1974 Heating, Average rooms/ coal usage, ton/yr County using coal degree-days dwelling unita ton/yr Partic S°2 Flathead — 7686 4.8 — _ Lake 45 7686 4.6 382 3.8 5.6 Missoula 215 7305 4.6 1734 17.3 25.4 Lewis & Clark 19 7594 4.6 159 1.6 2.3 Deer Lodge - 7594 4.3 - - - Silver Bow 53 7594 4.5 435 4.4 6.4 Yellowstone 303 6763 4.7 2311 23.1 33.8 Carbon 224 6763 4.8 1745 17.5 25.5 Stillwater 83 6763 4.8 647 6.5 9.5 Sweetgrass 18 6763 4.8 140 1.4 2.0 Big Horn 209 6763 4.6 1560 15.6 22.8 Rosebud 205 7084 4.2 1464 14.6 21.4 Treasure 61 7084 4.9 508 5.1 7.4 Custer 95 7084 4.7 759 7.6 11.1 Fallon 82 7084 4.9 683 6.8 10.0 Powder River 83 7084 4.6 649 6.5 9.5 Carter - 7084 4.9 - - - a Reference 5 k Reference 6 ------- Industrial It was assumed that all industrial coal users burned large enough quantities of coal to be included as point sources. Therefore, industrial coal combustion area source emissions were assumed to be negligible. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS Since all of the coal consumption is residential, emis- 8 sion factors for hand-fired units were used: Emission factors, lb/ton Particulates 20.00 S02 29.26 (assuming 0.77% sulfur)9 Applying these emission factors to the calculated residential coal consumption yields the annual emissions listed in Table 1.1. PROJECTIONS In projecting the consumption of bituminous coal, a number of assumptions were made; these assumptions are based on historical trends as well as expectations for the near future: 0 Use of coal for the purpose of area source emissions will continue to be limited to residential uses. Just as in the base year emissions estimates, it is assumed that commercial-institutional and industrial con- tributions will continue to be negligible area sources. 1-4 ------- ° New residences to be built between 1974 and 1985 will not use coal as the primary heating fuel; instead, these residences will most likely be heated with natural gas, fuel oil, or electricity. ° The number of existing residences using bituminous coal will decrease through attri- tion; since many of the homes capable of utilizing coal for a heating fuel are the older homes, these residences are antici- pated to steadily decline in numbers. 0 Some residences capable of using several fuel sources will switch to coal for heating purposes as the costs of other fuel sources (e.g., natural gas, fuel oil, and electricity) steadily increase. Although it is expected the number of older homes with coal stokers will gradually decrease through abandonment and subsequent demolition, or renovation, relative cost competi- tiveness of coal to other heating fuels is anticipated to encourage some residences to switch from these sources to coal. Overall, it has been assumed that these two trends will counteract each other, so that net residential bitumi- nous coal consumption will remain unchanged from 1974 through 1980 and 1985. Since the growth factor is assumed to be 1.0 and the emission factor will remain the same, the projected emissions from this area source will remain con- stant over the time period of interest. 1- 5 ------- 2. DISTILLATE OIL DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The area source consumption of distillate oil was determined by using the degree-day heating method for residential and by apportioning the state distillate oil consumption totals for commercial-institutional and industrial. Residential Residential distillate oil consumption was calculated using the degree-day heating method previously discussed in Section one, page 1-2 (eq.l). The heating requirement factor for gallons of oil burned per dwelling unit per 4 degree-day is 0.18. The number of dwelling units using distillate oil and the 1974 residential distillate oil con- sumption are recorded in Table 2.1. The trend for house heating from 1970 to 1974 has been toward gas and electric heat; consequently, there has been no significant increase in distillate oil usage during these years. Therefore, it was assumed that the number of 1970 dwelling units using distillate oil were representative of 1974. Commercial-Institutional Commercial-institutional area source distillate oil consumption was calculated by apportioning the state dis- tillate oil commercial consumption by 1974 population. State commercial distillate oil consumption for area sources was determined from 1973 published data,^ where 1973 data were assumed to be representative of 1974. 2-1 ------- Table 2. 1. 1974 AREA SOURCE DISTILLATE FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION 1974 Point & area 1974 source 1970 DU Residential Commercial- industrial using fuel consumption, 1974 institutional 1973 Mfg. consumption, County oila 10-3 gal/yr Population'3 10^ gal/yr employees0 103 gal/yr Flathead 3733 4958 42,600 1375 3281 5709 Lake 3007 3827 16,700 539 362 630 Missoula 1401 1695 63,700 2057 3428 5965 Lewis & Clark 347 436 36,000 1162 711d 1237 Deer Lodge 105 123 15,100 488 30 52 Silver Bow 111 137 43,200 1395 671 1168 Yellowstone 421 482 94,300 3045 3421 5953 Carbon 175 205 7,900 255 38 66 Stillwater 144 168 5,200 168 69d 120 Sweetgrass 149 174 3,100 100 10 17 Big Horn 309 346 10,500 339 113 197 Rosebud 217 232 7,700 249 170 296 Treasure 107 134 1,200 39 10 17 Custer 152 182 12,300 397 100 174 Fallon 42 52 3,900 126 21d 37 Powder River 79 93 2,200 71 20d 35 Carter 220 218 1,900 61 15 26 State total 29850 37168 735,000 23732 22229 38682 a Reference 5 k Reference 11 c Reference 12 ^ Estimated from reference 12 ------- 3 State distillate type = 56,154 • 10 gal heating oil 3 State distillate used = 1,218 • 10 gal by military 3 State kerosene used = 3,528 • 10 gal for heating 1974 State residential 60,900 • 10^ gal and commercial distillate oil consumption 3 Less 1974 state resi- - 37,168 • 10 gal dential distillate oil consumption 3 1974 State commercial- 23,732 • 10 gal institutional distillate oil consumption The apportioned commercial-institutional distillate oil consumption by county is listed in Table 2.1. Industrial Industrial distillate oil consumption was calculated by apportioning state industrial distillate oil consumption by the number of manufacturing employees in each county. State industrial distillate oil consumption for point and area sources was determined from the following 1973 published data,^"® where 197 3 data were assumed to be representative of 1974. 3 State industrial use = 37,380 • 10 gal 3 State oil company use = 1,302 • 10 gal 1974 State point and 38,682 • 10 gal area source industrial distillate oil consumption The apportioned industrial distillate oil consumption by county is listed in Table 2.1. It was assumed that the 2-3 ------- 1973 ratio of county to state manufacturing employees is representative of 1974. The 1974 point source distillate oil consumption was determined from a National Emission Data System (NEDS) com- 13 puter listing for the State of Montana. These totals for each county were subtracted from the calculated distillate oil consumption totals for that county to determine the 1974 area source distillate oil consumption listed in Table 2.2. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The emission factors for distillate fuel oil combustion Emission factors, lb/103 gal Particulates 15 so0 71 (assuming 0.5% sulfur)14 Applying these factors to the county area source dis- tillate oil consumption yields the emissions listed in Table 2.2. PROJECTIONS Future use of distillate oil is projected for each of the major category of users—residential, commerical-insti- tutional, and industrial. The projections for residential and commercial-institutional uses were assumed to be propor- tional to population, whereas industrial growth was assumed to be related to manufacturing economic activity. 2-4 ------- Table 2.2. 1974 AREA SOURCE DISTILLATE OIL EMISSIONS County 1974 Point source consumption, 10-* gal/yra 1974 Area source industrial consumption, 103 gal/yr 1974 Area source distillate oil consumption, 103 gal/yr 1974 Emissions, ton/yr Partic SO2 Flathead 5709 12042 90.3 427. 5 Lake 25 605 4971 37. 3 176.5 Missoula 5965 7180 53.9 254.9 Lewis & Clark 2 1235 2833 21.2 100. 6 Deer Lodge 52 663 5.0 23.5 Silver Bow 70 1098 2630 19.7 93.4 Yellowstone 401 5552 9079 68.1 322. 3 Carbon 66 526 3.9 18.7 Stillwater 120 456 3.4 16.2 Sweetgrass 17 291 2.2 10. 3 Big Horn 197 882 6.6 31.3 Rosebud 768 neg 481 3.6 17.1 Treasure 17 190 1.4 6.7 Custer 174 753 5.6 26.7 Fallon 37 215 1.6 7.6 Powder River 35 199 1.5 7.1 Carter 26 305 2.3 10.8 a Reference 13 ------- Residential It was assumed that area source residential consumption of distillate oil would continue to be utilized for home heating purposes in somewhat the same manner as it has been in the past. Thus, future use of distillate oil was assumed to be proportional to the growth of the number of dwelling units currently using distillate oil, and the growth in the number of DU's was assumed to be proportional to county-wide population growth. These projected county population growth rates were used to project residential usage of distillate oil and their concomitant emissions. Results for this analysis are presented in Table 2.3 (the emission factors are assumed to be unchanged from the base year). Commercial-Institutional Use of distillate oil in the commercial-institutional sector was also assumed to be directly related to population changes. Therefore, projections were based on the county- wide changes projected for population. These results are shown in Table 2.4. Again, the same emission factors used in the baseline emissions estimates were used. Industrial Growth factors for industrial consumption of distillate oil were calculated from OBERS BEA economic area projec- 15 tions. The AQMA counties are distributed among three BEA economic areas: ° Area 153 - Butte, Montana ° Area 094 - Great Falls, Montana ° Area 095 - Billings, Montana 2-6 ------- TABLE 2. 3. PROJECTIONS OF RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION OF DISTILLATE FUEL OIL 1974 1980 1985 Consump- tion Emission tons/yr Growth Consump- tion Emission tons / yr Growth Con sump- Emission tion tons/yr County 10 gal/yr Part. (M O CO Factor 10 gal/yr Part. S°2 Factor 10 gal/yr Part. S°2 Flathead 495 8 37. 2 176 1. 056 5255 39.4 186 1. 101 5454 40. 9 194 Lake 3827 28.7 136 1. 102 4210 31. 6 149 1. 186 4554 34.2 162 Missoula 1695 12.7 60 1. 064 1797 13. 5 64 1.119 1898 14. 2 67 Lewis & Clark 436 3. 3 15 1.056 462 3.5 16 1. 103 480 3. 6 17 Deer Lodge 123 0.9 4 0.957 117 0.9 4 0.901 111 0.8 4 Silver Bow 137 1.0 5 1. 021 140 1.1 5 1.040 142 1.1 5 Y ellowstone 482 3*. 6 17 1. 055 511 3. 8 18 1. 101 530 4.0 19 Carbon 205 1.5 7 1. 076 221 1.7 8 1. 139 234 1.8 8 Stillwater 168 1.3 6 1. 077 181 1.4 6 1. 154 193 1.4 7 Sweetgrass 174 1.3 6 1.032 179 1.3 6 1.065 186 1.4 7 Big Horn 346 2. 6 12 1. 029 356 2. 7 13 1. 057 367 2.8 13 Rosebud 232 1.7 8 1.169 271 2. 0 10 1.299 302 2.3 11 Treasure 134 1.0 5 1.083 145 1.1 5 1. 167 157 1.2 6 Custer 182 1.4 6 1.008 184 1.4 7 1.016 186 1.4 7 F allon 59 0.4 2 0.949 49 0.4 2 0. 897 47 0.4 2 Powder River 93 0.7 3 0.545 50 0.4 2 0.182 17 0.1 1 Carter 218 1.6 8 0.947 207 1.6 7 0.895 194 1.5 7 ------- TABLE 2. 4. PROJECTIONS OF COMMERCIAL-INSTITUTIONAL CONSUMPTION OF DISTILLATE FUEL OIL 1974 1980 1985 County Consump- tion 103gal/yr Emission tons/yr Part. SO^ Growth Factor Consump- tion 103gal/yr Emission tons/yr Part. SO^ Growth Factor Consump- tion 103gal/yr Emission tons/yr Part. SO^ Flathead 1375 10.3 48.8 1.056 1458 10.9 51.8 1. 101 1513 11.3 53. 7 Lake 539 4.0 19.1 1. 102 593 4.4 21.1 1. 186 641 4.8 22. 8 Missoula 2057 15.4 73.0 1.064 2180 16.4 77.4 1.119 2304 17.3 81. 8 Lewis & Clark 1162 8.7 41.3 1.056 1232 9.2 43.7 1.103 1278 9.6 45.4 Deer Lodge 488 3.7 17.3 0.951 464 3.5 16.5 0.901 439 3.3 15. 6 Silver Bow 1395 10.5 49.5 1.021 1423 10.7 50.5 1.040 1448 10.9 51.4 Y ellowstone 3045 22.8 108.1 1.055 3228 24.2 114.6 1.101 3350 25.1 118.9 Carbon 255 1.9 9.1 1.076 275 2.1 9.8 1.139 291 2.2 10.3 Stillwater 168 1.3 6.0 1. 077 181 1.4 6. 4 1. 154 193 1.4 6.9 Sweetgrass 100 0.8 3.6 1.032 103 0.8 3.7 1.065 107 0.8 3.8 Big Horn 339 2.5 12.0 1.029 349 2. 6 12.4 1.057 359 2.7 12.7 Rosebud 249 1.9 8.8 1.169 291 2.2 10.3 1.299 324 2.4 11.5 Treasure 39 0.3 1.4 1.083 42 0.3 1.5 1. 167 46 0.3 1.6 Custer 397 3.0 14.1 1.088 401 3.0 14. 2 1. 016 405 3.0 1.4 F allon 126 0.9 4.5 0.949 120 0.9 4.3 0. 897 114 0.9 4.0 Powder River 71 0.5 2.5 0.545 38 0.3 1.3 0. 182 13 0. 1 0. 5 Carter 61 0.5 2.2 0. 947 58 0.4 2. 1 0. 895 54 0.4 1.9 ------- Five of the AQMA counties are in Area 153, one is is in Area 094, and the remaining counties are in Area 095 with the exception of Yellowstone which, because it is a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), is a separate BEA Economic Area (321, Billings SMSA). As no projections were readily available for Area 321 from Volume II of the OBERS projections, a different set of projections (based on Series C instead of Series E) were used for Area 321. Examination of the population estimates provided indicates no substantial difference between these two sources for the years in question. The indices used to determine the growth factors for industrial consumption of distillate oil were "manufacturing earnings." Since no data were available for 1974, the base year factor was calculated from the 1971 historical figures and the 1980 projection figures by linear extrapolation for each BEA economic area. Growth factors were then calculated for each BEA economic area and assigned to the counties within that area. These growth factors were, in turn, then applied to the base year emissions. Table 2.5 presents the results of these computations. 2-9 ------- Table 2.5- PROJECTIONS OF INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION OF DISTILLATE FUEL OIL 1974 1980 1985 BEA Emissions, Emissions, Emissions, econ Consumption, ton/yr Growth Consumption, ton/yr Growth Consumption, ton/yr County area 10-3 gal/yr Partic S02 factor 10^ gal/yr Partic SO2 factor 10^ gal/yr Partic S02 Flathead 153 5709 42.8 202.7 1.214 6931 52.0 246.1 1.384 7901 59.3 280.5 Lake 153 605 4.5 21.5 1. 214 734 5.5 26.1 1.384 .837 6.3 29.7 Missoula 153 5965 44.7 211.8 1.214 7242 54.3 257.1 1.384 8256 61.9 293.1 Lewis & Clark 94 1235 9.3 43.8 1. 207 1491 11.2 52.9 1.361 1681 12.6 59.7 Deer Lodge 153 52 0.4 1.8 1.214 63 0.5 2.2 1.384 72 0.5 2.6 Silver Bow 153 1098 8.2 39.0 1.214 1333 10.0 47.3 1.384 1520 11.4 54.0 Yellowstone 321 5552 41.6 197.1 1.143 6346 47.6 225.3 1.259 6990 52.4 248.1 Carbon 95 66 0.5 2.3 1.248 82 0.6 2.9 1.441 95 0.7 3.4 Stillwater 95 120 0.9 4.3 1.248 150 1.1 5.3 1.441 173 1.3 6.1 Sweetgrass 95 17 0.1 0.6 1.248 21 0.2 0.7 1.441 24 0.2 0.9 Big Horn 95 197 1.5 7.0 1.248 246 1.8 8.7 1.441 284 2.1 10.1 Rosebud 95 neg - - 1.248 neg - - 1.441 neg - - Treasure 95 17 0.1 0.6 1.248 21 0.2 0.7 1.441 24 0.2 0.9 Custer 95 174 1.3 6.2 1.248 217 1.6 7.7 1.441 251 1.9 8.9 Fallon 95 37 0.3 1.3 1.248 46 0.3 1.6 1.441 53 0.4 1.9 Powder River 95 35 0.3 1.2 1.248 44 0.3 1.6 1.441 50 0.4 1.8 Carter 95 26 0.2 0.9 1.248 32 0.2 1.1 1.441 37 0.3 1.3 ------- 3. RESIDUAL OIL DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY Area source residual oil consumption was determined by apportioning state residual oil totals for commercial- institutional and industrial usage. It was assumed that there is no residential usage of residual oil in Montana, so only commercial-institutional and industrial residual con- sumption was calculated. Commercial-Institutional Commercial-institutional area source residual oil consumption was calculated by apportioning state commercial- institutional residual oil by county/state population. The state area source consumption for this category was deter- mined from 1973 published data."''® The 1973 data were assumed to be representative of 1974 data. Point sources for commercial-institutional usage were neglected. State residual type = 8,736,000 gal heating oil State residual used = 672,000 gal by military 1974 State commercial- 9,408,000 gal institutional residual oil consumption The 1974 Montana population is 735,000.^* Listed in Table 3.1 is the apportioned commercial-institutional residual oil consumption by county. 3-1 ------- Table 3.1. 1974 RESIDUAL OIL CONSUMPTION 1974 Point & 1974 area source Point source 1974 Area source industrial industrial industrial consumption, consumption, consumption, 1()3 gal/yr 10-* gal/yr 10^ gal/yr Flathead 42600 545 3281 8400 8400 Lake 16700 214 362 927 927 Missoula 63700 815 3428 8776 682 8094 Lewis & Clark 36000 461 711c 1820 1820 Deer Lodge 15100 193 30 77 77 Silver Bow 43200 553 671 1718 1718 Yellowstone 94300 1207 3421 8758 630 8128 Carbon 7900 101 38 97 97 Stillwater 5200 67 69c 177 177 Sweetgrass 3100 40 10° 26 26 Big Horn 10500 134 113 289 289 Rosebud 7700 99 17°c 435 435 Treasure 1200 15 10C 26 26 Custer 12300 157 100 256 256 Fallon 3900 50 21c 54 54 Powder River 2200 28 20c 51 51 Carter 1900 24 15 38 38 a Reference 11 k Reference 12 Estimated from reference 12 1974 Commercial- ins tituional 1974 residual oil Manu- County consumption, acturing. County population 103 gal/yr employees ------- Industrial Industrial residual oil consumption was calculated by apportioning state industrial residual oil consumption by county/state manufacturing employees. State industrial residual oil consumption for point and area sources was determined from the following 1973 published data."^ The 1973 data were assumed to be representative of 1974 data. State industrial usage = 10,206,000 gal State oil company usage = 46,704,000 gal 1974 State point and 56,910,000 gal area source consumption The apportioned industrial residual oil consumption by county is reported in Table 3.1. The total number of manu- 12 facturing employees in the state is 22,229. It was assumed that the 1973 ratio of county to state manufacturing employees is representative of 1974. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The emission factors for residual oil combustion are as follows:® Emission factors, lb/103 gal Particulates 23. .0 SO, 188. .4 (assuming 1.2% 14 sulphur) Applying these emission factors to the total county area source consumption yields the emissions listed in Table 3.2. 3-3 ------- Table 3.2. 1974 RESIDUAL OIL EMISSIONS 1974 Area source residual oil consumption, 1974 Emissions, ton/yr County 103 gal/yr Partic S02 Flathead 8945 102.9 842.6 Lake 1141 13.1 107.5 Missoula 8909 102.5 839.2 Lewis & Clark 2281 26.2 214.9 Deer Lodge 270 3.1 25.4 Silver Bow 2271 26.1 213.9 Yellowstone 9335 107.4 879.4 Carbon 198 2.3 18.7 Stillwater 244 2.8 23.0 Sweetgrass 66 0.8 6.2 Big Horn 423 4.9 39.8 Rosebud 534 6.1 50.3 Treasure 41 0.5 3.9 Custer 413 4.7 38.9 Fallon 104 1.2 9.8 Powder River 79 0.9 7.4 Carter 62 0.7 5.8 3-4 ------- PROJECTIONS Historical trends were used to project emissions from residual oil. In particular, as in the base year estimates, it was assumed there would be no residential usage and primary consumption limited to commercial-institutional and industrial categories. Furthermore, in estimating emissions, it was assumed that emission factors for particulates and SO2 remained constant from the base year—specifically 23 lb particulate and 188.4 lb SO2 per 1000 gal of residual oil (this factor assumes 1.2 percent sulfur content). Commercial-Institutional It was assumed area source commercial-institutional consumption of residual oil would continue in proportion to population. Therefore, county population growth factors were used to project residual oil consumption and the resul- tant emissions. These results are given in Table 3.3. Industrial Growth factors for industrial consumption of residual oil were calculated in the same manner as industrial distil- late oil, e.g., proportional to manufacturing economic activity. The projected manufacturing earning for each county was determined from its location in the various OBERS-BEA economic areas.^ These growth factors to the base year oil consumption figures and emission estimates yield the emissions presented in Table 3.4. 3-5 ------- TABLE 3.3. PROJECTIONS OF COMMERCIAL-INSTITUTIONAL USAGE OF RESIDUAL OIL 1974 1980 1985 County Consump- tion 103gal/yr Emission tons/yr Part. SO^ Growth Factor Consump- tion 103gal/yr Emission tons/yr Part. SO w Growth Factor Consump- tion 1 O^gal/yr Emission tons/yr Part. SO^ Flathead 545.28 6. 3 51.4 1.056 578.0 6.6 54.4 1.101 599. 8 6. 9 56. Lake 213.76 2.5 20. 1 1. 102 235. 1 2.7 22. 1 1.186 254. 4 2.9 24. Missoula 815.36 9.4 76.8 1. 064 864.3 9.9 81.4 1.119 913. 2 10. 5 86. Lewis & Clark 460.80 5.3 43.4 1. 056 488.4 5.6 46. 0 1.103 506. 9 5.8 47. Deer Lodge 193.28 2.2 18.2 0. 957 183.6 2.1 17. 3 0. 901 174. 0 2.0 16. Silver Bow 552.96 6. 4 52.1 1. 021 564.0 6. 5 53. 1 1. 040 575. 0 6. 6 54. Y ellowstone 1207.04 13.9 113.7 1.055 1279.5 14.7 120.5 1. 101 1327.8 15.3 125. Carbon 101.12 1.2 9.5 1.076 109.2 1.3 10. 3 1. 139 115. 3 1.3 10. Stillwater 66. 56 0.8 6.3 1. 077 71.9 0.8 6. 8 1.154 76. 5 0.9 7. Sweetgrass 39.68 0.5 3.7 1. 032 40.9 0.5 3.9 1. 065 42. 5 0. 5 4. Big Horn 134.40 1.5 12.7 1. 029 138.4 1.6 13. 0 1.057 142. 5 1.6 13. Rosebud 98.56 1.1 9.3 1.169 115.3 1.3 10.9 1.299 128. 1 1.5 12. Treasure 15.36 0.2 1.4 1. 083 16.6 0.2 1.6 1. 167 18. 0 0. 2 1. Custer 157.44 1.8 14. 8 1. 088 159.0 1.8 15. 0 1. 01 6 160. 6 1.8 15. Fallon 49.90 0. 6 4.7 0. 949 47.4 0.5 4. 5 0. 897 44. 9 0. 5 4. Powder River 28.16 0.3 2.7 0. 545 15.2 0. 2 1.4 0. 182 5. 0 0. 1 0. Carter 24.32 0.3 2.3 0.947 23.1 0. 3 2.2 0. 895 21. 6 0.2 2. 5 0 0 8 4 2 1 9 2 0 4 1 7 1 2 5 0 ------- Table 3.4. PROJECTIONS OF INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION OF RESIDUAL OIL 1974 1980 1985 BEA Emissions, Emissions, Emissions, econ Consumption, ton/yr Growth Consumption, ton/yr Growth Consumption, ton/yr County area 10^ gal/yr Partic S02 factor 10^ gal/yr Partic SOj factor 10^ gal/yr Partic SO2 Flathead 153 8400 96.6 791.3 1.214 10198 117.3 960.7 1.384 11626 133.7 1095.2 Lake 153 927 10.7 87.3 1.214 1125 12.9 106.0 1.384 1283 14.8 120.9 Missoula 153 8094 93.1 762.5 1.214 9826 113.0 925.6 1.384 11202 128.8 1055.2 Lewis & Clark 94 1820 20.9 171.4 1.207 2197 25.3 207.0 1.361 2477 28.5 233.3 Deer Lodge 153 77 0.9 7.3 1.214 93 1.1 8.8 1.384 107 1.2 10.1 Silver Bow 153 1718 19.8 161.8 1.214 2086 24.0 196.5 1.384 2378 27.3 224 .0 Yellowstone 321 8128 93.5 765.7 1.143 9290 106.8 875.1 1.259 10233 117.7 963.9 Carbon 95 97 1.1 9.1 1.248 121 1.4 11.4 1.441 140 1.6 13.2 Stillwater 95 177 2.0 16.7 1.248 221 2.5 20.8 1.441 255 2.9 24.0 Sweetgrass 95 26 0.3 2.4 1.248 32 0.4 3.0 1.441 37 0.4 3.5 Big Horn 95 289 3.3 27.2 1.248 361 4.2 34.0 1.441 416 4.8 39.2 Rosebud 95 435 5.0 41.0 1.248 543 5.2 51.2 1.441 627 7.2 59.1 Treasure 95 26 0.3 2.4 1.248 32 0.4 3.0 1.441 37 0.4 3.5 Custer 95 256 2.9 24.1 1.248 319 3.7 30.0 1.441 369 4.2 34.8 Fallon 95 54 0.6 5.1 1.248 67 0.8 6.3 1.441 78 0.9 7.3 Powder River 95 51 0.6 4.8 1.248 64 0.7 6.0 1.441 73 0.8 6.9 Carter 95 38 0.4 3.6 1.248 47 0.5 4.4 1.441 55 0.6 5.2 ------- 4. NATURAL GAS DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The consumption of natural gas in the Montana AQMA counties was determined by contact with the natural gas distributors. The distributors provided data on natural gas deliveries to a few industrial sources and total deliveries 17 18 to the AQMA counties. ' The total 1974 point source natural gas consumption for each county was determined from data provided by the natural gas distributors and from a 13 NEDS computer listing for the State of Montana. Area source natural gas consumption was calculated by subtracting 1974 point source natural gas consumption totals from the total natural gas deliveries for each county. These totals are listed in Table 4.1. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS O The emission factors for natural gas combustion are: Emission factors, lb/10** cu ft Particulate 10.0 S02 - 0.6 Applying these emission factors to the county area source natural gas consumption yields the emissions recorded in Table 4.1. 4-1 ------- Table 4.1. 1974 AREA SOURCE NATURAL GAS EMISSIONS 1974 Point 1974 Area County 1974 Natural gas deliveries, 10® cu ft source natural gas consumption, 106 cu ft source natural gas consumption, 10® cu ft 1974 Emissions, ton/yr Partic S02 Flathead 2741 565 2176 10.9 0.7 Lake 0 0 0 0 0 Missoula 8958 5462 3496 17.5 1.0 Lewis & Clark 2921 584 2337 11.7 0.7 Deer Lodge 10483 9397 1086 5.4 0.3 Silver Bow 4683 1509 3174 15.9 1.0 Yellowstone 11558 4603 6955 34.8 2.1 Carbon 210 0 210 1.0 0.1 Stillwater 59 0 59 0.3 0 Sweetgrass 141 0 141 0.7 0 Big Horn 365 0 365 1.8 0.1 Rosebud 195 0 195 1.0 0.1 Treasure 0 0 0 0 0 Custer 1457 0 1457 7.3 0.4 Fallon 1153 0 1153 5.8 0.3 Powder River 814 0 814 4.1 0.2 Carter 0 0 0 0 0 ------- PROJECTIONS Two major utilities provided much of the information 17 18 used in developing the projections for natural gas usage. ' The Montana Power Company provided base year consumption estimates for 1974 for the counties of Flathead, Lake, Missoula, Lewis & Clark, Deer Lodge, Silver Bow, and Sweet- grass. In addition to base year estimates for 1974, the Montana-Dakota Utilities Company provided projections for 1980 and 1985 for the counties of Yellowstone, Carbon, Stillwater, Big Horn, Rosebud, Custer, Fallon, and Powder River. The latter data were also disaggregated into resi- dential, commercial, industrial, and company use categories. With the exception of Yellowstone County, all natural gas usage estimates were assumed to be responsible for area source emissions. In Yellowstone County, a decrease in industrial usage from 5543 MMCF in 1974 to 3821 MMCF for 1980 and 1985 was projected. The difference of 1722 MMCF (i.e., 5543-3821 MMCF) was assumed to be attributable to an industrial point source (assumed to be switching to other fuels) and subtracted from the industrial category for 1974. All other data, including the projections, were used as provided. The gas consumption projections for the remaining AQMA counties, including those counties served by the Montana Power Company, were assumed to be proportional to changes projected in county population. Growth factors were applied to the consumption estimates provided by the Montana Power Company. Results of the above stated assumptions are presented in Table 4.2; the emission estimates are based on a constant emission factor used to develop the base year estimates. 4-3 ------- Table 4.2. PROJECTIONS OF NATURAL GAS EMISSIONS 1974 1974 1980 1980 1985 1985 Natural gas Emissions, Natural gas Emissions, Natural gas Emissions, consumption, ton/yr Growth consumption, ton/yr Growth consumption, ton/yr County 10® cu ft Partic s°2 factor 10<> cu ft Partic so2 factor 10® cu ft Partic so2 Flathead 2176 10.9 0.7 1.06 2307 11.5 0.7 1.10 2538 12.7 0.8 Lake neg neg neg 1.10 0 neg neg 1.19 0 neg neg Missoula 3496 17.5 1.0 1.06 3706 18.5 1.1 1.12 4151 20.8 1.2 Lewis 6 Clark 2337 11.7 0.7 1.06 2477 12.4 0.7 1.10 2725 13.6 0.8 Deer Lodge 1086 5.4 0.3 0.96 1043 5.2 0.3 0.90 939 4.7 0.3 Silver Bow 3174 15.9 1.0 1.02 3237 16.2 1.0 1.04 3366 16.8 1.0 Yellowstone 6955 34.8 2.1 1.12 7790 39.0 2.3 1.23 9582 47.9 2.9 Carbon 210 1.0 0.1 1.06 223 1.1 0.1 1.12 235 1.2 0.1 Stillwater 59 0.3 neg 4.73 279 1.4 0.1 5.20 307 1.5 0.1 Sweetgrass 141 0.7 neg 1.03 145 0.7 neg 1.07 151 0.8 neg Big Horn 365 1.8 0.1 1.10 401 2.0 0.1 1.26 461 2.3 0.1 Rosebud 195 1.0 0.1 1.26 246 1.2 0.1 1.54 300 1.5 0.1 Treasure neg 1.08 1.17 Custer 1457 7.3 0.4 1.15 1675 8.4 0.5 1.32 1927 9.6 0.6 Fallon 1153 5.8 0.3 1.03 1182 5.9 0.4 1.07 1229 6.1 0.4 Powder River 814 4.1 0.2 .17 137 0.7 neg 0.001 1 neg neg Carter neg 0.95 0.90 ------- 5. OTHER FUELS DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY Two types of fuels were considered in this area source category: wood and LPG. The procedure used to determine consumption for each fuel type is discussed below. Wood - Residential wood consumption was calculated using the 4 degree-day heating method previously described in Section one, page 1-2 (eq.l). The heating requirement factor used for the tons of wood burned per dwelling unit per degree-day 4 is 0.0017. The number of degree days was determined from the closest National Weather Service (NWS) reporting sta- tion.6 The number of dwelling units for each county used to calculate wood consumption is presented in Table 5.1. Because of the unavailability of data on residential wood burning and the small amount of emissions from this source, it was assumed that the number of 1970 dwelling units using 5 wood was representative of 1974. There were no data available to indicate the use of wood fuel by commercial-institutional area sources. It is expected to be quite minimal. Wood burning by the indus- trial sources is only done by the wood industry and these industries are included as point sources. Therefore, commercial-institutional and industrial area source emis- sions were considered to be negligible. LPG - The combined 1973 state commercial and residential LPG 19 consumption was 47,702,000 gallons. It was assumed that the 1973 consumption is representative of 1974. The data 5-1 ------- Table 5.1. 1974 AREA SOURCE WOOD EMISSIONS 1970 DU 1974 Residential 1974 Wood emissions, usinga wood consumption, ton/yr County wood ton/yr Partic S°2 Flathead 312 3914 19.6 2.9 Lake 412 4953 24.8 3.7 Missoula 266 3039 15.2 2.3 Lewis & Clark 116 1378 6.9 1.0 Deer Lodge 167 1854 9.3 1.4 Silver Bow 109 1266 6.3 0.9 Yellowstone — Carbon — Stillwater 38 419 2.1 0.3 Sweetgrass 63 695 3.5 0.5 Big Horn 14 148 0.7 0.1 Rosebud 51 516 2.6 0.4 Treasure — Custer — Fallon — Powder River 19 211 1.1 0.2 Carter — a Reference 5 ------- were disaggregated into residential and commercial-institu- tional by using a residential to commercial-institutional 20 . ratio for natural gas consumption. This ratio is 1.5 to 1. Therefore, the 1974 residential LPG consumption is approximately 28,468,000 gallons and the 1974 commercial LPG consumption is approximately 19,235,000 gallons. Residential Residential LPG consumption was calculated by appor- tioning the estimated state LPG consumption by number of 5 dwelling units using LPG. It is assumed that the ratio of county dwelling units using LPG to state dwelling units using LPG for 1974 is the same as for 1970. There were 18,503 dwelling units using LPG in 1970. These totals are presented in Table 5.2. Commercial-Institutional Commercial-institutional LPG consumption was calculated by apportioning the state commercial LPG consumption by county/state population. The 1974 state population is approximately 735,000.^ The county totals are listed in Table 5.2. Industrial Industrial LPG consumption was calculated by apportion- ing state industrial LPG consumption by county/state manu- facturing employees. The state industrial LPG consumption 19 was 8,035,000 gallons and was assumed to be representative of 1974. The total number of manufacturing employees in the state is 22,229.^ Also, the 1973 ratio of the county to state manufacturing employees was assumed to be the same for 1974. 5-3 ------- Table 5.2. 1974 AREA SOURCE LPG CONSUMPTION 1974 Conmercial- County 1970 DU using LPG 1974 Residential LPG consumption, 103 gal/yr 1974 County population Institutional LPG consumption, 103 gal/yr 1973 1974 Industrial Manufacturing LPG consumption, employees 103 gal/yr Flathead 321 494 42,600 1115 3281 1186 Lake 590 490 16,700 437 362 131 Missoula 381 586 63,700 1667 3428 1239 Lewis & Clark 639 983 36,000 942 711a 257 Deer Lodge 59 90 15,100 395 30 11 Silver Bow 220 338 43,200 1131 671 243 Yellowstone 780 1200 94,300 2468 3421 1237 Carbon 234 360 7,900 206 38 14 Stillwater 236 363 5,200 136 69a 25 Sweetgrass 165 254 3,100 81 ioa 4 Big Horn 683 1051 10,500 275 113 41 Rosebud 545 839 7,700 202 170a 61 Treasure 70 108 1,200 31 10 4 Custer 404 622 12,300 322 100 36 Fallon 195 300 3,900 102 21a 8 Powder River 514 791 2,200 58 20a 7 Carter 447 688 1,900 50 15 5 a Estimated from Reference 12 ------- BASE YEAR EMISSIONS Emissions were calculated for the two types of fuels— wood and LPG. Wood - Applying emission factors of 10 lb/ton of wood for particulates and 1.5 lb/ton of wood for sulphur oxides g yields the emissions reported in Table 5.1. LPG - The average emission factors for LPG fuel consumption 3 3 are 1.9 lb/10 gallons for particulate and 0.9 lb/10 O gallons for SC^- Applying these emission factors to the county total LPG consumption yields the emissions reported in Table 5.3. PROJECTIONS The major fuels considered in this category, as in the base year calculations, are wood and LPG. For both fuels, consumption trends are discussed for the residential, commercial-institutional, and industrial sectors. Wood - The base year emission estimates assumed negligible consumption in the commercial-institutional sector and use in the industrial sector to be accounted for by the point source inventory. These same assumptions have been used in the projected usage. Thus, the only area source wood con- sumption considered is residential uses. Projections are based on county population growth, which has been assumed to be related to dwelling units using wood. These growth factors and the calculated emissions are presented in Table 5.4 (the emissions calculations assume the same factors for average annual heating degree-days and that the heating degree-day method is valid). 5-5 ------- Table 5.3. 1974 AREA SOURCE LPG EMISSIONS 1974 1974 LPG Emissions, Total LPG consumption, ton/yr County 103 gal/yr Partic S02 Flathead 2795 2.7 1.3 Lake 1476 1.4 0.7 Missoula 3492 3.3 1.6 Lewis & Clark 2182 2.1 1.0 Deer Lodge 496 0.5 0.2 Silver Bow 1712 1.6 0.8 Yellowstone 4905 4.7 2.2 Carbon 580 0.6 0.3 Stillwater 524 0.5 0.2 Sweetgrass 339 0.3 0.2 Big Horn 1367 1.3 0.6 Rosebud 1102 1.0 0.5 Treasure 143 0.1 0.1 Custer 980 0.9 0.4 Fallon 410 0.4 0.2 Powder River 856 0.8 0.4 Carter 743 0.7 0.3 5-6 ------- TABLE 5.4. PROJECTION OF OTHER FUEL EMISSIONS-WOOD 1974 Emissions (tons/yr) 1980 1985 Emissions (tons / yr) Emissions (tons / yr) County Part. S°2 kJI UW til Factor Part. S°2 Factor Part. so2 Flathead 19.6 2.9 1.06 20.8 3.1 1.10 21. 6 3.2 Lake 24.8 3.7 1.10 27.3 4.1 1.19 29.5 4.4 Missoula 15.2 2.3 1.06 16.1 2.4 1.12 17.0 2. 6 Lewis & Clark 6.9 1.0 1.06 7.3 1.1 1.10 7. 6 1.1 Deer Lodge 9.3 1.4 0.96 8.9 1.3 0.90 8.4 1.3 Silver Bow 6.3 0.9 1.02 6. 4 0.9 1,04 6. 6 0.9 Yellowstone - - 1. 06 - - 1.10 - - Carbon - - 1.08 - - 1.14 - - Stillwater 2.1 0.3 1.08 2.3 0. 3 1.15 2.4 0. 3 Sweetgrass 3.5 0.5 1. 03 3.6 0.5 1.07 3.8 0.5 Big Horn 0.7 0. 1 1.03 0.7 0. 1 1.06 0.7 0.1 Rosebud 2.6 0.4 1.17 3.0 0.5 1.30 3.4 0. 5 Treasure - - 1.08 - - 1.17 - - Custer - - 1.01 - - 1. 02 - - F allon - - 0.95 - - 0.90 - - Powder River 1.1 0. 2 0.55 0.6 0. 1 0.18 0.2 negl Carter 0.95 - - 0.90 - _ ------- LPG - Use of LPG in the AQMA counties is not a significant source of areawide emissions, even though usage occurs in the residential, commercial-institutional, and industrial sectors. Therefore, since the total LPG consumption figures presented are relatively minor (see Tables 5.2 and 5.3), projections have been assumed proportional to county popu- lation estimates. Application of separate growth factors for each sector is unlikely to improve the accuracy of the emission estimates due to the uncertainties inherent in developing such growth factors. The projected LPG emissions are summarized in Table 5.5. 5-8 ------- TABLE 5.5. PROJECTION OF OTHER FUEL EMISSIONS-LPG 1974 1980 1985 County Emissions (tons /yr) Part. ^O^ Growth Factor Emissions (tons/yr) Part. S02 Growth Factor Emissions (tons/yr) Part. Flathead 2.7 1.3 1.06 2.9 1.4 1. 10 3.0 1.4 Lake 1.4 0.7 1. 10 1.5 0.8 1.19 1.7 0.8 Missoula 3.3 1.6 1.06 3.5 1.7 1. 12 3.7 1.8 Lewis & Clark 2.1 1.0 1.06 2.2 1.1 1.10 2.3 1.1 Deer Lodge 0.5 0.2 0.96 0.5 0.2 0.90 0.5 0.2 Silver Bow 1.6 0.8 1.02 1.6 0.8 1.04 1.7 0.8 Y ellowstone 4.7 2.3 1.06 5.0 2.4 1. 10 5.2 2.5 Carbon 0. 6 0.3 1. 08 0. 6 0.3 1.14 0.7 0.3 Stillwater 0.5 0. 2 00 o 0.5 0.2 1.15 0.6 0.2 Sweetgrass 0.3 0. 1 1.03 0. 3 0.1 1. 07 0.3 0.1 Big Horn 1.3 0. 6 1.03 1.3 0. 6 1.06 1.4 0. 6 Rosebud 1.0 0.5 1.17 1.2 0. 6 1. 30 1.3 0.7 Treasure 0. 1 0.1 1.08 0.1 0. 1 1.17 0.1 0. 1 Custer 0.9 0.4 1.01 0.9 0. 4 1. 02 0.9 0.4 F allon 0.4 0.2 0.95 0.4 0.2 0.90 0.4 0. 2 Powder River 0.8 0.4 0.55 0.4 0.2 0.18 0.1 0. 1 Carter 0.7 0.3 0.95 0.7 0.3 0.90 0. 6 0.3 ------- 6. OPEN BURNING DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY There are three classifications of open burning which have been considered to estimate emissions: agricultural burning, slash burning, and forest fires. Agricultural burning includes all intentional field and ditch burning done by farmers and ranchers. Slash burning includes waste from logging operations, brush from land clearings, and brush burned in forests as a forest fire prevention method. Forest fires are self-explanatory. Data for each classifi- cation are as follows. Agricultural Burning The Montana Air Quality Bureau was contacted to determine 21 the number of acres of fxelds burned in 1974. It was the opinion of the Bureau that two percent of the planted acres of wheat, barley, and oats in each county were burned in 1974. The estimated acres of agricultural burning are listed in Table 6.1. Slash Burning The U.S. Forest Service was contacted to obtain data on acres of forest protected by the Forest Service in Montana and the acres of slash burned in each national forest in 22 23 1974. ' The amount of slash burned in each national forest in 1974 was apportioned to each county by the number of acres in each forest. 6-1 ------- emii on/y: 9028 884 3711 5201 868 978 51 406 256 374 38 139 3 12 37 484 128 Table 6.1. 1974 AREA SOURCE OPEN BURNING EMISSIONS Forest Partic Slash fire Fuel Partic Agriculture, emissions, acres acres loading emissions, acres burned ton/yr burned burned ton/acre ton/yr 918 20 6922 648 140 9008 406 9 719 16 140 875 220 5 2668 446 140 3706 623 13 3840 1043 125 5188 28 1 719 97 125 867 16 neg 852 68 125 978 2414 51 - - - - 821 17 124 292 110 389 1690 36 54 180 110 220 435 9 248 142 110 365 1795 38 - - — - 763 16 31 101 110 123 158 3 - - - - 570 12 - - - — 1733 37 - - - - 849 18 116 382 110 466 833 18 28 90 110 110 ------- The Montana Division of Forestry was contacted to determine the amount of slash burned in forests not pro- tected by the U.S. Forest Service. An estimate of 20,000 acres of slash burned in Montana was obtained from the 24 Division of Forestry. This figure is approximately 55 percent of the figure for slash burned in forest protected by the Forest Service. Therefore, it was assumed that for each county the amount of slash burned in the forests out- side the Forest Service protection boundaries was 55 percent of that burned within the protection boundaries. The total acres of slash burned in the state are reported in Table 6.1. Forest Fires The U.S. Forest Service provided information on the number of acres of forest consumed by forest fires in 1974 25 for each national forest in Montana. The acres of forest consumed by forest fires in 1974 were apportioned to each county by the number of acres in each forest. The Montana Division of Forestry provided data on forest fires outside the Forest Service protection boun- daries. Forest fires occurred in six counties in 1974. Three of these counties are AQMA counties: Flathead, Missoula, and Lewis and Clark. The acres of forest consumed were apportioned by the number of acres of forest outside the Forest Service protection boundaries. The acres of forest outside the Forest Service protection boundaries were determined by subtracting the protected acres from the total 26 land area in each county. base year emissions The estimated fuel loading for agricultural burning is 4 assumed to be 2.5 tons per acre. The particulate emission 6-3 ------- p factor for agricultural burning is 17 pounds per ton. Applying these factors to the acres burned yields the emis- sions listed in Table 6.1. The U.S. Forest Service reports an estimated average fuel loading for forest in Montana of 140 tons per acre for land west of the Continental Divide and 110 tons per acre 27 east of the Divide. The particulate emission factor for 8 forest fires is 17 pounds per ton. The estimated fuel loadings and associated particulate emissions are reported in Table 6.1. PROJECTIONS The three categories of open burning were projected using different methodologies. The same emission factors used to compute base year emissions were assumed to be applicable for future years. Agricultural Burning Base year emissions from agricultural burning were estimated to be from burning of two percent of the wheat, barley, and oat crops (in planted acres) in each county. This assumption was also used for the projections in which the growth factors for planted acres of wheat, barley, and oats were determined as described below. Data on historical and projected agricultural production (in terms of bushels harvested) are available for 1964, 15 1980, and 1985 from recent OBERS forecasts. These data were plotted for wheat, oats, and barley and a "best fit" straight line drawn through each crop. The extrapolated graphical estimate for 1973 was compared with actual state data for 1973, available from the Montana Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Statis- 28 tical Reporting Service. For the three crops analyzed, an 6-4 ------- average difference of about four percent was found between the "projected vs. actual" data recorded. This slight error was judged to be acceptable for these projection purposes and the OBERS 1980 and 1985 forecasts were deemed valid. The acreages of wheat, oats, and barley planted during 1973 in the State of Montana were similarly obtained from 28 the Montana Agricultural Statistics. Assuming constant yields per acre through 1985 (i.e., no technological advances to increase productivity per acre), it was possible to calculate future crop acreages by using the previously projected production data. This was done to yield projected acres of planted wheat, oats, and barley. Furthermore, it was assumed the base data available for 1973 were represen- tative of 1974. Growth factors determined for 1980 and 1985 were applied to the base year estimates of acres burned in each county during 1974 to yield the summary of emissions projected shown in Table 6.2. Slash Burning and Forest Fires The acres of slash burned and acres consumed by forest fires is dependent on activities of the U.S. Forest Service and Montana Division of Forestry. Both categories are directly related to acreages of forest. On the one hand, although slash burning is controlled and initiated as a standard forestry management practice, it nevertheless is highly dependent on many natural phenomena (e.g., tempera- ture, rainfall) which vary from year to year. Forest fires, on the other hand, are more unpredictable with acres con- sumed, in part, a function of the effectiveness of the forest fire fighters. The uncertainties associated with these two categories and near term prospects for little, if any, change in forestry management techniques led to the assumption that these two categories would remain essentially constant through 1985. 6-5 ------- TABLE 6. 2. PROJECTION OF AGRICULTURAL BURNING EMISSIONS 1974 1980 1985 Part. Part. Part. Acres Emissions Growth Acres Emissions Growth Acres Emissions County Burned (Tons/Yr) Factor Burned (Tons/Yr) Factor Burned (Tons/Yr) Flathead 918 20 1.15 1,056 23 1. 19 1,092 24 Lake 406 9 1. 15 467 10 1.19 483 11 Missoula 220 5 1.15 253 6 1.19 262 6 Lewis & Clark 623 13 1.15 716 15 1.19 741 15 Deer Lodge 28 1 1.15 32 1 1.19 33 1 Silver Bow 16 neg 1.15 18 neg 1.19 19 neg Y ello wstone 2,414 51 1.15 2, 776 59 1.19 2, 873 61 Carbon 821 17 1.15 944 20 1.19 977 20 Stillwater 1,690 36 1.15 1,944 41 1.19 2, 011 43 Sweetgrass 435 9 1.15 500 10 1.19 518 11 Big Horn 1,795 38 1.15 2,064 44 1.19 2,136 45 Rosebud 763 16 1.15 877 18 1.19 908 19 Treasure 158 3 1.15 182 3 1.19 188 4 Custer 570 12 1.15 656 14 1.19 678 14 F allon 1,733 37 1.15 1,993 43 1.19 2,062 44 Powder River 849 18 1.15 976 21 1.19 1, 010 21 Carter 833 18 1.15 958 21 1,19 991 21 ------- 7. HIGHWAY MOBILE SOURCES DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The Montana Department of Highways provided two publi- cations containing data on miles of road and daily vehicle 29 30 miles traveled (VMT) for both rural and municipal roads. ' The 1972 daily VMT data were reported for rural road systems 29 and a few municipal systems. Additional daily VMT data were obtained for the Billings 31 and Missoula municipal systems for 1973. It was assumed that the 1973 data for Billings and Missoula municipal systems were representative of 1974. Further, it was assumed that the 1972 VMT data provided by the Department of Highways were also representative of 1974. The total daily VMT by county obtained from these two sources was then multiplied by 365 to obtain the annual county VMT totals. These totals are reported in Table 7.1. In order to disaggregate total annual VMT into travel by light duty vehicles (LDV), light duty trucks (LDT), heavy duty gasoline powered vehicles (HDV), and heavy duty diesel powered vehicles (HDD), it was assumed that percentage of travel by vehicle type in each county was the same as the average percentages obtained for the cities of Missoula and 31 Billings. The percentage breakdown is as follows: Vehicle type Percent of annual VMT Light duty vehicles (LDV) 67.0 Light duty trucks (LDT) 22.0 Heavy duty gasoline (HDV) 7.4 Heavy duty diesel (HDD) 3.6 7-1 ------- Table 7.1. ANNUAL VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED BY VEHICLE TYPE County LDV 103 VMT LDT 103 VMT HDV 10J VMT HDD 103 VMT Total Annual 103 VMT Flathead 217,826 71,525 24,058 11,704 325,114 Lake 96,515 31,691 10,660 5,186 144,052 Missoula 259,589 85,238 28,671 13,948 387,477 Lewis & Clark 156,161 51,277 17,248 8,391 233,076 Deer Lodge 62,397 20,489 6,892 3,353 93,130 Silver Bow 148,117 48,635 16,359 7,959 221,070 Yellowstone 334,813 109,939 36,979 17,990 499,721 Carbon 55,783 18,317 6,161 2,997 83,258 Stillwater 48,615 15,963 5,369 2,612 72,559 Sweetgrass 39,960 13,121 4,414 2,147 59,642 Big Horn 86,397 28,369 9,542 4,642 128,951 Rosebud 57,343 18,829 6,333 3,081 85,587 Treasure 16,053 5,271 1,773 863 23,959 Custer 64,900 21,311 7,168 3,487 96,866 Fallon 21,884 7,186 2,417 1,176 32,662 Powder River 20,755 6,815 2,292 1,115 30,978 Carter 13,478 4,426 1,489 724 20,116 ------- The estimated annual vehicle miles travel by vehicle type are recorded in Table 7.1. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS Emission factors for LDV, LDT, HDV, and HDD for parti- g culates and SC>2 are as follows: Emission factors, gm/mi Pollutant LDV LDT HDV HDD Particulates Exhaust .34 .34 .91 1.30 Tire wear .20 .20 .30 .50 Brake wear .02 .02 .03 .03 .56 .56 1.24 1.83 SO 2 .13 .18 .36 2.80 It was assumed that HDV have an average of six tires and HDD have an average of ten tires. Base year emissions are then calculated by multiplying VMT by the appropriate emission factor for LDV, LDT, HDV, and HDD. These emissions are listed in Table 7.2. PROJECTIONS Emissions of particulate matter and sulfur dioxide from highway motor vehicle exhaust were projected according to projected vehicle miles travelled in each county. The VMT projections were based on the Montana Highway Functional 29 Classification and Needs Study—1974 Update for all counties except Yellowstone and Missoula Counties, as shown in Table 7.3. The emission projection for 1980 was based solely on the VMT projection. The projection for 1985 includes an adjustment in the emission factor to account for the anticipated use of catalysts in post-1980 light duty 7-3 ------- Table 7.2. 1974 AREA SOURCE VEHICLE EMISSIONS LDV emissions, LDT emissions, HDV emissions, HDD emissions, Total emissions, ton/yr ton/yr ton/yr ton/yr ton/yr County Partic S02 Partic S02 Partic S02 Partic S02 Partic S02 Flathead 134.3 31.2 44.1 14.2 32, .9 9.5 23.6 36.1 234. .9 91.0 Lake 59.5 13.8 19.5 6.3 14. .6 4.2 10. 5 16.0 104. .1 40. 3 Missoula 160.1 37.2 52.6 16.9 39. .2 11.4 28.1 43.0 280. .0 108.5 Lewis & Clark 96.3 22.4 31.6 10.2 23. .6 6.8 16.9 25.9 168. .4 65.3 Deer Lodge 38.5 8.9 12.6 4.1 9. .4 2.7 6.8 10.3 67. .3 26.0 Silver Bow 91.3 21.2 30.0 9.6 22. .3 6.5 16.0 24.5 159. .6 61.8 Yellowstone 206.5 47.9 67.8 21.8 50. .5 14.7 36.3 55.5 361. .1 139.9 Carbon 34.4 8.0 11.3 3.6 8. .4 2.4 6.0 9.2 60. .1 22.2 Stillwater 30.0 7.0 9.8 3.2 7. .3 2.1 5.3 8.1 52. .4 20.4 Sweetgrass 24.6 5.7 8.1 2.6 6. .0 1.8 4.3 6.6 43. .0 16.7 Big Horn 53.3 12.4 17.5 5.6 13. .0 3.8 9.4 14.3 93, .2 36.1 Rosebud 35.4 8.2 11.6 3.7 8. .6 2.5 6.2 9.5 61. .8 23.9 Treasure 9.9 2.3 3.3 1.0 2. .4 0.7 1.7 2.7 17, .3 6.7 Custer 40.0 9.3 13.1 4.2 9. .8 2.8 7.0 10.8 69. .9 27.1 Fallon 13.5 3.1 4.4 1.4 3. .3 1.0 2.4 3.6 23, .6 9.1 Powder River 12.8 3.0 4.2 1.4 3. ,1 0.9 2.2 3.4 22. .3 8.7 Carter 8.3 1.9 2.7 0.9 2. .0 0.6 1.5 2.2 14. .5 5.6 ------- TABLE 7-3 VMT PROJECTION BY COUNTY Annual VMT Growth Factor Percent County 1972** 1990** Chanqe 1974-1980 1974-1985 Flathead 884,468 1, 549, 762 3.3 1.18 1.38 Lake 389,217 666,284 3.2 1.17 1.37 Missoula* 1, 176, 130 2, 024, 144 3.2 1.17(1.37) 1.37(1. 67) Lewis Clarlc 638,565 1,031,494 2.9 1.15 1.33 Deer Lodge 255,152 365,427 2.1 1.11 1.23 Silver Bow 605,671 743,900 1.2 1.06 1.13 Yellowstone * 1,593,215 2, 583, 728 2.9 1.15(1.47) 1.33(1.79) Carbon 222,724 349, 268 2. 7 1.14 1.31 Stillwater 197,345 301,072 2. 5 1.13 1. 28 Sweetgrass 161,587 262, 006 2.9 1.15 1.33 Big Horn 349, 006 639,182 3. 6 1.19 1.42 Rosebud 232, 517 496,528 4. 6 1.25 1.57 Treasure 65,309 100,793 2.' 6 1.14 1.29 Custer 265,385 356,902 1.8 1.09 1.20 Fallon 87,482 123,195 2.0 1.10 1.22 Powder River 84, 247 142,559 3.1 1.16 1.36 Carter 54,826 95,060 3.3 1.18 1.38 ~These growth factors were not used in Missoula or Yellowstone counties. Instead, VMT projections based on more recent data (as presented in a separate section) have been substituted, as denoted in parenthesis. ~~Source: Menasco-Mc.Guinn Associates, "Montana Highway Functional Classification and Needs Study - 1974 Update." 7-5 ------- g cars. Based on the national average, these vehicles contri- bute approximately 50 percent of the totallight duty auto VMT, which in turn is 67 percent of the total motor vehicle VMT. The change in the particulate emission factor for these vehicles is approximately 46 percent, from 0.54 gm/mi to 0.25 gm/mi. Thus the overall change in the emission factor should be a reduction of 0.50 x 0.67 x 0.46 = 0.15, or 15 percent. The resulting emission projections are summarized in Table 7.4. 7-6 ------- TABLE 7-4 HIGHWAY MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION PROJECTION (TONS/YR) 1974 1980 1985 County Part. S°2 Growth Factor Part. S°2 Growth Factor Part. S°2 Flathead 234.9 91.0 1.18 277 107 1.38 278 127 Lake 104.1 40.3 1.17 122 47 1.37 121 55 Missoula 280.0 108.5 1.37 384 149 1. 67 477 204 Lewis & Clark 168.4 65.3 1.15 194 75 1.33 190 86 Deer Lodge 67.3 26.0 1.11 75 29 1.23 71 32 Silver Bow 159. 6 61.8 1.06 169 66 1.13 152 69 Y ellowstone 361.1 139.9 1.47 531 206 1.79 663 302 Carbon 60.1 22.2 1.14 69 25 1.31 66 29 Stillwater 52.4 20.4 1.13 59 23 1.28 57 26 Sweetgrass 43.0 16.7 1.15 49 19 1.33 48 22 Big Horn 93.2 36.1 1.19 111 43 1.42 112 51 Rosebud 61.8 23.9 1.25 77 30 1.57 82 37 Treasure 17.3 6.7 1.14 20 8 1.29 19 9 Custer 69.9 27.1 1.09 76 30 1.20 71 32 Fallon 23.6 9.1 1.10 26 10 1.22 25 11 Powder River 22.3 8.7 1.16 26 10 1.36 26 12 Carter 14.5 5.6 1.18 17 7 1.38 17 8 ------- 8. OFF-HIGHWAY VEHICLES DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY This category includes off-highway vehicles using gasoline and diesel fuels. Typical gasoline fuel users are farm tractors, lawnmowers, compressors, pumps, and small electric generators. Typical diesel fuel users are farm tractors, construction equipment, and emergency generator power units. Gasoline To calculate gasoline fuel consumption, two fuel usage factors are used.^ Tractor gasoline = 1,000 gal/tractor/yr fuel usage factor Population gasoline = 13 gal/person/yr fuel usage factor 32 11 The total number of tractors and population in each county are listed in Table 8.1. It is assumed that the number of tractors has increased from 1969 to 1974 by 7 percent, or in direct proportion to state-wide population growth. Assuming that 60 percent of the tractors in each county 4 are gasoline powered and applying the tractor fuel usage factor to these tractors yields the gasoline consumption by tractors listed in Table 8.1. Applying the population fuel usage factor to population in each county yields the gasoline consumption by other fuel users (Table 8.1). 8-1 ------- Table 8.1. OFF-HIGHWAY GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION 60% Gasoline consumption, 1969 1974 1974 gal/yr County Tractors Tractors Gasoline Tractor Other Flathead 1402 1500 900 900,000 553,800 Lake 1790 1915 1149 1,149,000 217,100 Missoula 566 606 364 364,000 828,100 Lewis & Clark 788 843 506 506,000 648,000 Deer Lodge 167 179 107 107,000 196,300 Silver Bow 212 220 132 132,000 561,600 Yellowstone 2634 2818 1691 1,691,000 1,225,900 Carbon 1605 1717 1030 1,030,000 102,700 Stillwater 1080 1156 694 694,000 67,600 Sweetgrass 737 789 473 473,000 40,300 Big Horn 1445 1546 928 928,000 136,500 Rosebud 972 1040 624 624,000 100,100 Treasure 417 446 268 268,000 15,600 Custer 930 995 597 597,000 159,900 Fallon 759 812 487 487,000 50,700 Powder River 931 996 598 598,000 28,600 Carter 895 958 575 575,000 24,700 ------- Diesel To calculate diesel fuel consumption, three fuel usage factors were used:^ Tractor diesel = 1,000 gal/tractor/yr fuel usage factor Construction diesel = 5,000 gal/employee/yr fuel usage factor Population diesel = 7.4 gal/person/yr fuel usage factor Assuming that 35 percent of the tractors are diesel 4 powered and applying the fuel usage factor results in the diesel consumption by tractors (Table 8.2). The total number of non-building construction employees 12 in 1973 is assumed to be representative of 1974. These employees and the associated diesel consumption are listed in Table 8.2. The 1974 population"''1 and the population diesel fuel consumption in 1974 are also reported in Table 8.2. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The emission factors for off-highway gasoline consump- 0 tion are: Particulates (lb/103 gal) Gasoline farm tractor 8.0 Small, general utility 6.21 engines Applying these factors to gasoline off-highway fuel consumption yields the emissions listed in Table 8.3. SO, 5.31 5.22 8-3 ------- Table 8.2. OFF-HIGHWAY DIESEL FUEL CONSUMPTION 1974 1974 Diesel consumption, 1974 Non-building Diesel gal/yr County Population employees Tractors Tractor Construction Other Flathead 42,600 218 525 525,000 1,090,000 315,240 Lake 16,700 - 670 670,000 - 123,580 Missoula 63,700 417 212 212,000 2,085,000 471,380 Lewis & Clark 36,000 460 295 295,000 2,300,000 266,400 Deer Lodge 15,100 - 63 63,000 - 111,740 Silver Bow 43,200 248 77 77,000 1,240,000 319,680 Yellowstone 94,300 849 986 986,000 4,245,000 697,820 Carbon 7,900 - 601 601,000 - 58,460 Stillwater 5,200 - 405 405,000 - 38,480 Sweetgrass 3,100 - 276 276,000 - 22,940 Big Horn 10,500 - 541 541,000 - 77,700 Rosebud 7,700 - 364 364,000 - 56,980 Treasure 1,200 - 156 156,000 - 8,880 Custer 12,300 65 348 348,000 325,000 91,020 Fallon 3,900 - 284 284,000 - 28,860 Powder River 2,200 - 349 349,000 - 16,280 Carter 1,900 - 335 335,000 - 14,060 ------- Table 8.3. 1974 OFF-HIGHWAY EMISSIONS—GASOLINE AND DIESEL 1974 Gasoline emissions, 1974 Diesel emissions, ton/yr ton/yr Tractor Other Tractor Construction Other Total County Partic S02 Partic SO2 Partic S02 Partic S02 Partic S02 Partic SO, Flathead 3.6 2.4 1.7 1.4 12.0 8.2 14.2 17.0 6.3 5.5 37.8 34.5 Lake 4.6 3.1 0.7 0.6 15.3 10.5 - - 2.5 2.1 23.1 16.3 Missoula 1.5 1.0 2.6 2.2 4.8 3.3 27.2 32.5 9.5 8.2 45.6 47.2 Lewis & Clark 2.0 1.3 2.0 1.7 6.7 4.6 30.0 35.9 5.4 4.6 46.1 48.1 Deer Lodge 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.4 1.0 - - 2.2 1.9 4.6 3.7 Silver Bow 0.5 0.4 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.2 16.2 19.3 6.4 5.5 26.6 27.9 Yellowstone 6.8 4.5 3.8 3.2 22.5 15.4 55.4 66.2 14.0 6.9 102.5 96.2 Carbon 4.1 2.7 0.3 0.3 13.7 9.4 - - 1.2 1.0 19.3 13.4 Stillwater 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.2 9.3 6.3 - - 0.8 0.7 13.1 9.0 Sweetgrass 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.1 6.3 4.3 - - 0.5 0.4 8.8 6.1 Big Horn 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.4 12.4 8.4 - - 1.6 1.3 18.1 12.6 Rosebud 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.3 8.3 5.7 - - 1.1 0.6 12.2 8.3 Treasure 1.1 0.7 - - 3.6 2.4 - - 0.2 0.2 4.9 3.3 Custer 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.4 8.0 5.4 4.2 5.1 1.8 1.6 16.9 14.1 Fallon 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.1 6.5 4.4 - - 0.6 0.5 9.2 6.3 Powder River 2.4 1.6 0.1 0.1 8.0 5.4 - - 0.3 0.3 10.8 7.4 Carter 2.3 1.5 0.1 0.1 7.7 5.2 - - 0.3 0.2 10.4 7.0 ------- The emission factors for off-highway diesel consumption 8 are: Particulates SC>2 (lb/103 gal) Diesel farm tractor 45.7 31.2 Diesel construction 26.1 31.2 machinery Light-duty diesel- 40.2 34.7 powered vehicle The emission factors for diesel powered construction machinery are average factors for all types of construction equipment. There are no directly applicable emission factors for diesel fuel consumed on a per capita basis. A factor of 0.73 gm/mi for particulates and 0.63 gm/mi for SC>2 was obtained from the light duty, diesel powered vehicle emis- sion factors.® 3 An emission factor of 40.2 lb/10 gal for particulates 3 and 34.7 lb/10 gal for SO, was determined by using an 33 average light duty vehicle fuel consumption of 25 mi/gal. Applying these emission factors to the diesel fuel consump- tion yields the emissions listed in Table 8.3. PROJECTIONS Area source emissions from off-highway vehicles have been largely attributable to tractors and construction equipment. The base year emissions were estimated using parameters such as numbers of diesels and other construction equipment, amounts of diesel and gasoline consumed, and population. All of the basic methodological assumptions used in the base year have been retained for the emissions projections, including the same emission factors. Growth 8-6 ------- factors were developed from OBERS^ projections of agricul- tural and contract construction economic activity (i.e., total earnings). The rationale was that since the base year emissions were primarily assigned to agricultural and con- struction vehicles, future growth and use of such equipment or machinery would be directly related to the economic activity of these two basic industries. Separate projections are provided for agricultural and contract construction earnings by the three major OBERS-BEA economic areas. It was assumed that the individual county trends would follow the larger BEA economic area trends of which they were a part. Furthermore, due to the uncertain- ties of forecasting individual industries, a simple average of the growths/declines forecast for each industry was used as the growth factor for emissions projection. Table 8.4 presents the economic projections for 1980 and 1985 (total earnings) in terms of growth factors assuming a base year 1974 equal to 1.0. The agricultural and contract construc- tion growths are based on actual OBERS data; the average growth factors were developed for use in the emissions estimates. Non-SMSA growth factors were used for all counties except Yellowstone. The resulting projected emissions are summarized in Table 8.5. 8-7 ------- TABLE 8. 4. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY GROWTH FACTORS Economic Area Relative Economic Activity Agriculture 1974 1980 1985 Contract Construction 1974 1980 1985 Average Growth Facto r^ 1980 1985 Great Falls (094) o BEA Region 1.0 0.98 1.01 1.0 1.15 1.29 1.07 1. 15 o Non-SMSA 1.0 0.99 1.02 1.0 1.20 1.36 1. 10 1.18 Billings (095) o BEA Region 1.0 1.05 1.08 1.0 1.20 1.34 1. 13 1.21 o Non-SMSA 1.0 1.05 1.09 1.0 1.13 1.34 1.09 1.22 Butte (153) o BEA Region 1.0 1.03 1.04 1.0 1. 11 1.24 1.07 1.14 o Non-SMSA 1.0 1.09 1.09 1.0 1. 11 1.24 1.10 1.17 1 Derived from basic OBERS-BEA forecasts of economic activity by industry. 'Developed for use in projecting emissions (Table 8.5). 8-8 ------- TABLE 8. 5. PROJECTION OF OFF-HIGHWAY VEHICLE EMISSIONS County 1974 Total Emissions Gasoline & Diesel (tons/yr) Part. S°2 Growth Factor 1980 Total Emissions Part. S°2 Growth Factor 1985 Total Emissions Part. S°2 Flathead 37.8 34.5 1.10 41. 6 38.0 1. 17 44.2 40.4 Lake 23.1 16.3 1. 10 25.4 17.9 1.17 27.0 19.1 Missoula 45. 6 47.2 1.10 50.2 51.9 1.17 53.4 55.2 Lewis & Clark 46.1 48.1 1.10 50.7 52.9 1.18 54.4 56. 8 Deer Lodge 4. 6 3.7 1.10 5.1 4.1 1.17 5.4 4.3 Silver Bow 26. 6 27.9 1.10 29. 3 30.7 1.17 31. I 32.6 Y ellowstone 102.5 96.2 1. 13 115. 8 108.7 1.21 124. 0 116.4 Carbon 19.3 13.4 1. 09 21. 0 14.6 1.22 23. 5 16. 3 Stillwater 13.1 9.0 1.09 14.3 9.8 1.22 16.0 11.0 Sweetgrass 8.8 6.1 1.09 9.6 6.6 1.22 10.7 7.4 Big Horn 18.1 12. 6 1.09 19.7 13.7 1.22 22.1 15.4 Rosebud 12.2 8.3 1.09 13. 3 9.0 1.22 14.9 10.1 Treasure 4.9 3.3 1.09 5. 3 3.6 1.22 6.0 4. 0 Carter 16.9 14.1 1.09 18.4 15.4 1.22 20. 6 17.2 F allon 9.2 6.3 1.09 10.0 6.9 1.22 11.2 7.7 Powder River 10.8 7.4 1.09 11. 8 8.1 1.22 13.2 9.0 Carter 10.4 7.0 1.09 11. 3 7.6 1.22 12.7 8.5 ------- 9. RAILROADS DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The Montana Department of Public Service Regulation was contacted to obtain information on railroad operations in 34 Montana. A railroad route map for the railroads operating in the state was obtained, along with total track mileage by j .. . . 35,36/37,38 railroad in the state. ' The Burlington Northern (BN), the Milwaukee Road (MR), Butte, Anaconda and Pacific (BA&P), and Union Pacific (UP) railroads were contacted to obtain information on track mileage by county, operating days per year, frequency of trains, and the number of locomotives per train in the AQMA counties over sections of track located by use of the rail- 39 40 41 road route map. ' ' The BN was unable to provide an estimate of the miles of track by county. Therefore, track mileage for BN was estimated from the railroad route map and a highway road map. The other three railroads were able to provide estimates of track mileage for the counties and these numbers were used. A fuel factor of 2.25 gal/mi/locomotive was used to 31 determine fuel usage by section of track. This fuel factor seemed reasonable for the general terrain in Montana, and available fuel consumption information from the rail lines agreed favorably with this factor. Table 9.1 lists the data obtained from the railroads and calculated fuel consumption. 9-1 ------- Table 9.1. 1974 RAILROAD OPERATING DATA Train line Train frequency Locomotives /train Days of operation/yr Miles of track Fuel used, gal Burlington Northern Flathead 14/day 2/day 1/week 1/week 3 2 1 1 365 365 52 52 102 19 9 26 3,518,235 62,415 1,053 3,042 Lake 1/day 2 365 45 73,913 Missoula 7/day 1/day 1/week 3 2 1 365 365 52 60 16 20 1,034,775 26,280 2,340 Lewis & Clark 6/day 1/day 1/week 3 3 1 365 365 52 30 65 16 443,475 160,144 1,872 Deer Lodge 2/day 3 365 18 88,695 Silver Bow 2/day 3 365 31 152,753 Yellowstone 7/day 6/day 5/day 4/day 1/day 1/week 3 3 4 3 3 1 365 365 365 365 365 52 22 23 55 25 34 20 379,418 339,998 903,375 246,375 83,768 2,340 Carbon 4/day 1/week 1/week 3 1 1 365 52 52 46 36 21 453,330 4,212 2,457 Stillwater 7/day 1/week 3 1 365 52 39 19 672,604 2,223 Sweetgrass 7/day 3 365 40 698,850 Big Horn 6/day 3 365 87 1,286,078 Rosebud 21/day 5/day 4/day 4 4 3 365 365 365 23 16 29 1,586,655 262,800 285,795 Treasure 5/day 4 365 30 492,750 Custer 21/day 4 9-2 365 46 3,173,310 ------- Table 9.1 (continued). 1974 RAILROAD OPERATING DATA Train line Train frequency Locomotives /train Days of operation/yr Miles of track Fuel used, gal Butte, Anaconda & Pacific Deer Lodge 1/day 4 365 10 32,850 Silver Bow 1/day 4 365 15 49,275 Union Pacific Silver Bow 1/day 3 365 35 172,463 Milwaukee Road Missoula 2/day 2/day 2/day 2/month 3 5 1 1 365 365 313 24 60 60 35 40 295,650 492,750 49,298 2,160 Deer Lodge 2/day 2/day 1/day 3 5 1 365 365 313 18 18 18 88,695 147,825 12,677 Silver Bow 2/day 2/day 1/day 3 5 1 365 365 313 31 31 31 152,753 254,588 21,832 Rosebud 4/day 3 365 96 946,080 Custer 4/day 3 365 54 532,170 Fallon 4/day 3 365 38 374,490 9-3 ------- BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The emission factors used to calculate particulate and g SO2 emissions are as follows: Particulate - 25 lb/103 gal S02 - 57 lb/103 gal The total fuel consumption and the calculated emissions by county are listed in Table 9.2. PROJECTIONS The future of railroad activity in the Montana AQMA's is tied directly to a number of uncertainties, primarily related to the future of industrial and coal development. In the case of coal, for example, future railroad activity is highly dependent upon whether the coal will be consumed in situ or whether it will be transported to Midwest sites. Further, existing capacity can be increased substantially without increasing the number of "train miles" by increasing the number of cars per train. These considerations, together with conversations with 42 railroad representatives who were anticipating no signifi- cant changes in operations through 1985, led to the assump- tion that railroad emissions will remain approximately constant over the next ten years. An update 6f the Mainte- nance Plan five years hence should provide an appropriate checkpoint for this assumption. 9-4 ------- Table 9.2. 1974 RAILROAD EMISSIONS Total fuel used, Emission estimates, all railroads, ton/yr County gal/yr Partic so2 Flathead 3,584,745 45 102 Lake 73,913 1 2 Missoula 1,903,253 24 54 Lewis & Clark 605,491 8 17 Deer Lodge 370,742 5 11 Silver Bow 803,664 10 23 Yellowstone 1,955,274 24 56 Carbon 459,999 6 13 Stillwater 674,827 8 19 Sweetgrass 698,850 9 20 Big Horn 1,286,078 16 37 Rosebud 3,081,330 39 88 Treasure 492,750 6 14 Custer 3,705,480 46 106 Fallon 374,490 5 11 Powder River 0 0 0 Carter 0 0 0 9-5 ------- 10. AIRCRAFT DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The Montana Air Quality Bureau contacted the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in Helena, Montana to obtain data on airport activities at the major airports in the AQMA counties. The FAA provided information on six airports: Kalispell/ Missoula, Helena, Butte, Billings, and Miles City. The airport activities were divided into four cate- gories: common carrier, general aviation, air taxi, and 43 military. The data recorded were total take offs and landings. These totals were divided by two to obtain the number of landing-take off cycles (LTO) in each category (Table 10.1). The Missoula Airport provided 1974 data on commercial 44 airline landings by type of aircraft. Therefore, these numbers were used to calculate emissions. To estimate the common carrier LTO cycles for the remaining airports, the 45 Official Airline Guide was used to find the number of flights into each airport every day and the type of aircraft used. Then the ratio of individual aircraft type to total aircraft was multiplied by the number of LTO cycles to obtain the number of LTO cycles by aircraft type at each airport. For example, at the Helena Airport five 727's and two 737's land every day. There were 2,381 LTO cycles for common carriers in 1974. To estimate the number of 727 landings in 1974, the following calculation was performed: - x 2381 = 1701 (727 LTO cycles) 7 10-1 ------- Table 10.1. 1974 AIRPORT LTO CYCLES Common carrier General aviation Air taxi Military Kalispell 1,090 23,280 550 170 Missoula 3,304 36,485 386 369 Helena 2,381 16,861 933 5,052 Butte 2,845 17,000 1,825 150 Billings 10,514 44,895 934 484 Miles City 345 17,100 250 50 10-2 ------- There were three assumptions made pertaining to the general aviation, air taxi, and military categories: 1) Ninety percent (90%) of the general aviation LTO cycles were by one-engine piston powered aircraft, and the remainder were two-engine piston powered aircraft. 2) All air taxi LTO cycles were by two-engine piston powered aircraft. 3) Ninety-five percent (95%) of the military LTO cycles were by helicopters, and the remainder were two- 46 engine medium range jet aircraft. The annual airport operations (LTO) for each aircraft type and each airport are summarized in Table 10.2. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The emission factors for an LTO cycle are as follows 8 for each aircraft type: Emission factors, lb/engine Partic so2 Jumbo jet 1.30 1.820 Medium range jet 0.41 1.010 Air carrier turboprop 1.10 0.400 General aviation piston 0.02 0.014 Helicoptor 0.25 0.180 Multiplying the emission factor by the number of engines and annual LTO cycles yields the total emissions for each pollutant for 1974 (Table 10.3). PROJECTIONS Areawide projections of aircraft emissions were based primarily on anticipated increases in aircraft activity 10-3 ------- Table 10.2. 1974 LTO CYCLES BY AIRCRAFT TYPE Aircraft (engines) Kalispell Missoula Helena Butte Billings Miles City Jumbo jet (3) 725 Medium range jet (3) (2) 1,099 386 2,100 680 1,954 1,264 1,589 3,626 4,375 3 Air carrier turboprop (2) 837 1,450 345 General aviation piston (2) (1) 2,878 20,952 4,035 32,836 2,619 15,176 3,525 15,300 5,787 40,405 1,960 15,390 Helicopter (2) 161 351 4,799 142 460 47 Total 25,090 40,545 25,228 21,820 56,828 17,745 ------- Table 10.3. 1974 AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS (ton/yr) Aircraft (engines) Kalispell Missoula Helena Butte Billings Miles City Part S02 Part SO2 Part SO2 Part SC^ Part SC>2 Part SC>2 Jumbo jet Medium range jet (3) (2) Air carrier turboprop General aviation piston (2) (1) Helicopter 1.41 1.98 0.45 0.06 0.21 0.24 1.11 0.86 0.58 0, 2.12 0, 0.92 0.33 42 1.03 0.78 1.91 2.23 80 1.97 0.65 1.60 1.79 1.60 0.04 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.12 0.15 0.33 0.23 0.15 0.11 0.15 0.11 0.40 5.49 4.42 neg neg 0.58 0.38 0.14 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.28 0.15 0.11 0.04 0.03 0.09 0.06 1.20 0.86 0.04 0.03 0.12 0.08 0.01 0.01 Total 0.76 1.33 2.52 3.38 2.62 4.01 1.69 3.70 7.67 12.91 0.58 0.29 ------- through 1987. Data were obtained from the Federal Aviation 47 Administration for 1979 and 1987. These data disaggregated by type of operation are presented in Table 10.4. (Note: an LTO cycle is equivalent to two operations.) Growth factors were developed for 1980 and 1985 by linear interpolation of the base year and projected data available. These results are given in Table 10.5. In order to project areawide emissions from the aircraft activities forecast, it was necessary to make two additional assumptions. For this analysis, it was assumed the types of aircraft in use (i.e., types of engines) would continue to be used in approximately the same ratio as in the base year. That is, no major turnover or shifts would occur in the aircraft carriers currently in use. Furthermore, it was assumed the emission factors used in developing base year emissions would remain constant through 1985. With these assumptions and the aircraft activity growth factors derived in Table 10.5, the resulting emissions were calculated and presented in Table 10.6. 10-6 ------- TABLE 10.4. PROJECTED 1979 AND 1987 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS1 Air Carrier Commute r General Aviation Military Total LTO ? Cycles Year - 1979 (Operations in Thousands) Kalispell 2 0 59 0 61 30.5 Missoula 9 1 88 1 99 49. 5 Helena 7 3 39 15 64 32.0 Butte 6 0 37 0 43 21.5 Billings 28 2 119 2 153 76. 5 Miles City 2 0 36 0 38 19.0 Year - 1987 (Operations in Thousands) Kalispell 4 0 120 0 124 62. 0 Mis soula 20 2 107 1 130 65. 0 Helena 7 4 44 16 71 35.5 Butte 8 0 55 0 63 31.5 Billings 60 2 164 2 208 104.0 Miles City 4 0 46 0 50 25.0 *Data provided by local district office, Federal Aviation Administration, Helena, Montana, November 1975 2 One LTO cycle equal two operations. ------- TABLE 10.5. AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY GROWTH FACTOR-AIRPORT LTO CYCLES (000's) 2 , Extrapolated LTO Cycles Airport LTO Cycles Growth Growth Airport (County) 1974 1979 1987 1980 Factor 1985 Factor Kalis pell (Flathead) 25. 1 30.5 62. 0 34.4 1.37 54. 1 2.16 Missoula (Missoula) 40. 5 49.5 65.0 51.4 1.27 61.1 1.51 Helena (Lewis & Clark) 25. 2 32.0 35.5 32.4 1.29 34. 6 1.37 Butte (Silver Bow) 21. 8 21.5 31.5 22. 5 1.03 29. 0 1.33 Billings (Yellowstone) 56. 8 76.5 104.0 79.9 1.41 97.1 1.71 Miles City (Custer) 17. 8 19.0 25.0 19.8 1.11 23.5 1.32 Data supplied by local district office, Helena, Montana, Federal Aviation Administration, November 1975; includes common carrier, general aviation, air taxi, and military operations. 2 Growth Factor assumes 1974 Base Year equals 1.0. ------- TABLE 10.6. PROJECTION OF AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS County (Airport) 1974 Emissions (Tons/Yr) Part. S°2 Growth Factor 1980 Part. so2 Growth Factor 1985 Part. S°2 Flathead Kalis pell 0.76 1.33 1.37 1.04 1.82 2.16 1. 64 2. 87 Missoula Missoula 2.52 3.38 1.27 3.20 4.29 1.51 3. 81 5.10 Lewis & Clark Helena 2.62 4.01 1.29 3.38 5.17 1.37 3. 59 5.49 Silver Bow Butte 1. 69 3.70 1.03 1.74 3.81 1.33 2.25 4. 92 Y ellowstone Billings 7.67 12.91 1.41 10.81 18.20 1.71 13. 12 22.08 Custer Miles City 0.58 0.29 1.11 0.64 0.32 1.32 0.77 0.38 ------- 11. INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES The categories of industrial processes to be considered are those point sources not considered in the point source emission inventory. In Montana, all sources identifiable as point sources are included in the point source emission inventory. Therefore/ it was assumed that area source emissions from industrial processes were negligible in all of the AQMA counties. 11-1 ------- 12. UNPAVED ROADS DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The Montana Department of Highways provided two publi- 29 30 cations containing data on unpaved roads. ' County-wide mileage totals were obtained for municipal and rural roads in each surface category: unimproved, graded and drained, gravel, and paved.30 The daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 1972 over all municipal and rural roads ,in the local 29 system were obtained for each county, where 1972 data were assumed to be representative of 1974. In order to calculate the VMT by surface type, it was assumed that the average daily traffic (ADT) was in a fixed ratio of 1:5:10:40. That is, there were five times as many vehicles on graded and drained roads as there were on unim- proved, ten times as many vehicles on gravel roads as on unimproved, and forty times as many vehicles on paved roads as on unimproved. The following, then, is the necessary equation to arrive at ADT for each surface type: Daily VMT = ADT X Cimproved' + 5 x ADT x (eq.2) .miles of ) + 10 x ADT x graded & drained miles of miles of 'gravel vpaved ' Solving for ADT, it is then possible to arrive at VMT for each surface type. The miles of road and associated daily VMT by surface type are listed in Table 12.1. 12-1 ------- Table 12.1. 1974 MONTANA UNPAVED ROADS Unimproved Graded & drained Gravel Rural Municipal Rural Municipal Rural Municipal Miles Daily Miles Daily Miles Daily Miles Daily Miles Daily Miles Daily County of road VMT of road VMT of road VMT of road VMT of road VMT of road VMT Flathead 504 3644 0 5 172 1.0 51 1202 86,799 16 1,800 Lake 211 1685 0 - 23 902 3.0 135 743 59,244 24 1,931 Missoula 546 4139 0 - 36 1355 18.0 1163 687 51,979 22 2,749 Lewis & Clark 374 2583 0 - 101 3498 33.0 6943 521 35,974 31 12,769 Deer Lodge 80 1045 0 - 5 309 1.0 515 84 10,981 0 0 Silver Bow 134 1164 0 - 33 1443 14.0 4309 65 5,641 6 3,917 Yellowstone 310 1846 0 - 210 6252 9.0 1071 622 36,995 34 8,213 Carbon 119 663 0 - 50 1385 5.0 131 584 32,460 8 432 Stillwater 142 594 0 - 230 4790 2.0 47 455 18,957 1 34 Sweetgrass 73 318 0 - 38 822 0.5 11 367 16,057 4 181 Big Horn 327 1965 0 - 27 809 0.4 11 600 36,073 6 343 Rosebud 424 1666 0 - 241 4732 0.3 6 599 23,550 4 138 Treasure 118 310 0 - 39 514 0.0 0 147 3,845 1 26 Custer 113 207 0 - 106 980 2.0 278 594 10,933 24 9,009 Fallon 124 452 0 - 125 2260 1.0 18 432 15,693 7 243 Powder River 187 520 0 - 109 1521 0.2 3 517 14,385 1 31 Carter 217 695 0 - 288 4607 0.0 0 185 5,908 6 195 ------- Information on silt content of the road bases was also needed in order to estimate emissions. The percent silt on gravel road surfaces is estimated to be 12 percent, based on analytical data presented in the EPA publication, Development of Emission Factors for Fugitive Dust Sources.For graded and drained or unimproved roads, no aggregate material is applied to the roadbed surface, so it is composed of com- pacted native soil. However, the fines originally on the surface, including silt-sized particles, are probably rapidly removed by turbulence from passing vehicles or by wind and water erosion forces. The remaining stable surface is composed of sand- and pebble-sized particles, with dust being generated primarily by the continuing mechanical breakdown of these particles as a result of traffic. It is assumed that the percent of silt-sized particles on a seasoned dirt road surface is approximately the same as that for gravel, or 12 percent. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS Emission factors for dust from unpaved roads were Q obtained from a recent EPA publication. E = (0.6) x (0.81) x (s) x (S/30) (eg.3) where E = emission factor, lb/vehicle mile s = silt content, percent S = average vehicle speed, mph Assuming that the average vehicle speeds are 25 mph for unimproved roads, 30 mph for graded and drained roads, and 49 35 mph for gravel roads produces the emission factors listed below: 12-3 ------- Emission factors, lb/VMT Unimproved Graded & drained Gravel 4.86 5.83 6.80 These emission factors are not corrected for wet days or days with snow cover on the roads. It is assumed that no emissions occur on these days. The number of days with 0.01 inches or more of precipi- tation, and the number of days with one inch or more of snow cover were estimated from the National Weather Service 1974 climatological data for the nearest recording station. The emission factors presented in Table 12.2 are corrected for non-dusting days. To calculate emissions, the total daily VMT were multi- plied by 365 to arrive at annual VMT for each surface type, then the emission factors were applied to arrive at the emissions listed in Table 12.2. PROJECTIONS Growth in emissions from unpaved roads is primarily a function of two factors—new miles of road and increased average daily traffic (ADT). For purposes of the projections presented, it has been assumed that the total miles of road will remain constant and that only the relative ratio of paved to unpaved roads will change. As the various commun- ities in each county grow in population, traffic volume (or ADT) is also expected to increase. As the ADT increases, some roads will be paved, removing those roads from consi- deration as significant particulate emission sources. In order to incorporate these various factors into the emission projection, the following procedure was used: 12-4 ------- Table 12.2. 1974 PARTICULATE EMISSIONS (ton/yr) Corrected emission factors, Emissions, ton/yr lb/VMT County Non- dusting days Unim- proved Graded & drained Gravel Unimproved Annual Emis- 103 VMT sions Graded & Annual 103 VMT drained Emis- sions Gravel Annual Emis- 103 VMT sions Flathead 214 2. 85 3.42 3.99 1330 1895 81 139 32,339 64,516 Lake 214 2. 85 3.42 3.99 615 875 379 648 22,329 44,546 Missoula 225 3. 00 3.59 4.19 1511 2267 919 1650 19,976 41,850 Lewis & Clark 274 3. 65 4.38 5.10 943 1721 3811 8346 17,791 45,367 Deer Lodge 274 3. 65 4.38 5.10 381 695 301 659 4,008 10,220 Silver Bow 274 3. 65 4.38 5.10 425 776 2099 4597 3,489 8,897 Yellowstone 250 3. 33 3.99 4.66 674 1122 2673 5333 6,501 38,447 Carbon 250 3. 33 3.99 4.66 242 403 553 1103 12,006 27,974 Stillwater 250 3. 33 3.99 4.66 217 361 1766 3523 6,932 16,152 Sweetgrass 250 3. 33 3.99 4.66 116 193 304 606 5,927 13,810 Big Horn 250 3. 33 3.99 4.66 717 1194 299 597 13,292 30,970 Rosebud 240 3. 20 3.83 4.47 608 973 1729 3311 8,646 19,324 Treasure 240 3. 20 3.83 4.47 113 181 188 360 1,413 3,158 Custer 240 3. 20 3.83 4.47 76 122 459 879 7,279 16,269 Fallon 240 3. 20 3.83 4.47 165 264 831 1591 5,817 13,001 Powder River 240 3. 20 3.83 4.47 190 304 556 1065 5,262 11,761 Carter 240 3. 20 3.83 4.47 254 406 1682 3221 2,228 4,980 ------- ° Assume a normal distribution of ADT vs. percent of total miles of unpaved roads. This distri- bution is shown in Figure 12.1. ° Establish base year ADT at 50 percentile and determine percent of miles exceeding 250 vehicles per day (traffic volume at which a road is paved). 0 Multiply growth factors by base year ADT to obtain projected ADT and determine percent of miles exceeding 250 vehicles per day for future years. 0 Subtract base year percent of miles exceeding 250 ADT from each percent of miles determined for future years. ° Multiply this difference by the existing miles of road to arrive at additional miles of roads exceeding 250 vehicles per day, or miles which should be paved for each future year. ° Determine from the distribution the average ADT on roads to be paved for each future year (slightly greater than 250). ° Multiply this ADT by the additional miles of road exceeding 250 vehicles per day for each future year to arrive at VMT loss on unpaved roads due to paving. ° Multiply total base year VMT on unpaved roads by growth factors and subtract VMT loss due to paving. The normal distribution of ADT vs. percent of total 50 miles of unpaved roads was derived from an earlier study, and it was assumed that the family of curves shown in Figure 12.1 could be extrapolated to cover higher values of mean ADT. The VMT growth factors were derived as shown in Table 12.3. The VMT projection from 1972 to 1990, as contained in the Montana Highway Functional Classification and Needs 29 Study—1974 Update, was used to derive annual percentage growth rates in VMT for each county. The growth rates were then used to obtain the VMT growth factors for 1980 and 1985. In the particular case of Missoula and Yellowstone 12-6 ------- Cumulative percent of niles 1 0.5 02 0.1 0 r:5 H* K> I 250 vehi ------- TABLE 12-3. VMT PROJECTION BY COUNTY County 1972** 1990** Annual Percent Change VMT Growth Factor 1974-1980 1974-1985 Flathead 884,468 1, 549,762 3.3 1.18 1.38 Lake 389, 217 666,284 3.2 1.17 1.37 Missoula* 1, 176, 130 2, 024, 144 3.2 1.17(1.37) 1.37(1. 67) Lewis & Clark 638, 565 1,031,494 2.9 1.15 1.33 Deer Lodge 255,152 365,427 2.1 1.11 14.23 Silver Bow 605, 671 743,900 1.2 1.06 1.13 Yellowstone* 1, 593, 215 2, 583,728 2.9 1.15(1.47) 1.33(1.79) Ca rbon 222, 724 349,268 2.7 1.14 1.31 Stillwater 197,345 301,072 2.5 1.13 1.28 Sweetgrass 161,587 262,006 2.9 1.15 1.33 Big Horn 349,006 639,182 3. 6 1.19 1.42 Rosebud 232,517 496,528 4. 6 1.25 1.57 Treasure 65,309 100,793 2. 6 1.14 1.29 Custer 265,385 356,902 1.8 1.09 1.20 Fallon 87,482 123,195 2.0 1.10 1.22 Powder River 84,247 142,559 3.1 1.16 1.36 Ca rter 54,826 95,060 3.3 1.18 1.38 ~These growth factors were not used in Missoula or Yellowstone counties. Instead, VMT projections based on more recent data (as presented in a separate section) have been substituted, as denoted in parenthesis. **Source: Menasco-McGuinn Associates, "Montana Highway Functional Classification and Needs Study - 1974 Update." 12-8 ------- Counties, more recent VMT projection data were used in lieu of that shown in Table 12.3. These projections are described in Appendix B of this report. The weighted average particulate matter emission factors for each county are summarized in Table 12.4, where emission factors by road surface type were weighted according to the VMT in each category in each county. Table 12.5 presents the average ADT on unpaved roads in each county. Implicit in the use of this emission factor for both base year and future year estimates is the assumption that the mix of road surface types will not substantially change over the period of the projection. This assumption is reasonable considering the small lengths of road projected to become paved. The foregoing data were used as input to the calculation of particulate emissions from unpaved roads which are summar- ized by county in Table 12.6. Summary tables of the calcula- tion for each county are continued in Appendix C of this report. 12-9 ------- TABLE 12-4. UNPAVED ROADS PARTICULATE MATTER EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT Unimp. Roads Graded & Drained Gravel County Total Unpaved Road VMT VMT* Emis. Factor (lbs / VMT)** VMT* Emis. Factor ** VMT* Emis. Factor ** Wtd. Avg. Emis. Factor Flathead 92, 466 3, 644 2.85 223 3.42 88, 599 3.99 3.93 Lake 63, 897 1, 685 2.85 1,037 3.42 61,175 3.99 3.95 Missoula 61,385 4, 139 3. 00 2,518 3.59 54, 728 4.19 4.08 Lewis & Clark 61,717 2, 583 3. 65 10,441 4.38 48,693 5.10 4.92 Deer Lodge 12, 850 1,045 3. 65 824 4.38 10,981 5.10 4.93 Silver Bow 16,474 1,164 3. 65 5,752 4.38 9,558 5.10 4.74 Yellowstone 54, 377 1, 846 3.33 7,323 3.99 45,208 4. 66 4.52 Carbon 35,071 663 3. 33 1,516 3.99 32,892 4. 66 4.61 Stillwater 24, 422 594 3.33 4,837 3.99 18,991 4. 66 4.49 Sweetgrass 17,389 318 3.33 833 3.99 16,238 4.66 4.60 Big Horn 39,201 1,965 3. 33 820 3.99 36,416 4.66 4.58 Rosebud 30,092 1,666 3.20 4,738 3.83 23, 688 4.47 4.30 Treasure 4, 695 310 3.20 514 3.83 3,871 4.47 4.32 Custer 21,407 207 3.20 1,258 3.83 19,942 4.47 4.42 Fallon 18,666 452 3.20 2,278 3.83 15,936 4. 47 4.36 powder River 16,460 520 3.20 1,524 3.83 14,416 4.47 4.37 Carter 11,405 695 3.20 4, 607 3.83 6,103 4.47 4.13 ~From Table 12.1 ~~From Table 12.2 12-10 ------- TABLE 12-5. . AVERAGE ADT ON UNPAVED ROADS County Total Unpaved Road VMT Total Miles Of Unpaved Roads Average ADT Flathead 92,466 1,728 54 Lake 63,897 1,004 64 Missoula 61,385 1,309 47 Lewis & Clark 61,717 1, 060 58 Deer Lodge 12,850 170 76 Silver Bow 16,474 252 65 Y ellowstone 54,377 1,185 46 Carbon 35,071 766 46 Stillwater 24,422 830 29 Sweetgrass 17,389 482 36 Big Horn 39,201 960 41 Rosebud 30,092 1,268 24 Treasure 4,695 305 15 Custer 21,407 839 26 Fallon 18,666 689 27 Powder River 16,460 814 20 Carter 11,405 696 16 12-11 ------- TABLE 12-6. SUMMARY OF PARTICULATE EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS FROM UNPAVED ROADS (TONS/YR) 1980 1985 County 1974 With Paving* Without Paving With Paving* Without Paving Flathead 66, 5,50 73,200 78,200 80,900 91,500 Lake 46,069 51,000 53,900 53,800 63,100 Missoula 45, 767 56, 000 62,900 63,500 76,700 Lewis & Clark 55,434 61,300 63,700 65,900 73,700 Deer Lodge 11,574 12,000 12,800 12,700 14,200 Silver Bow 14,270 14,800 15,000 15,200 16,100 Yellowstone 44, 900 58, 900 64,900 66,800 80,000 Carbon 29,480 31,900 33,600 35,000 38,700 Stillwater 20,036 20,800 22,600 20,900 25,600 Sweetgrass 14,609 15,900 16, 800 18,000 19,400 Big Horn 32,761 37,300 39,000 41,300 46, 600 Rosebu 23,608 28,200 29,500 33,000 37,000 Treasure 3, 699 4,200 4,300 4,600 4,800 Custer 17,270 18, 500 18, 800 20,000 20,700 F allon 14, 856 16, 000 16,400 17,500 18,100 Powder River 13,130 14,800 15,300 16,700 17,800 Ca rter 8,607 9,900 10,200 11,400 11,900 ^Assumes that roads with ADT greater than 250 will be paved. 12-12 ------- 13. AGRICULTURE DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY There are two sources of fugitive dust from agricul- tural activity: windblown dust and dust generated by agricultural operations. Windblown dust was estimated by 48 use of the windblown dust equation. Dust generated by agricultural operations was determined by using the emission g factor equation for agricultural tilling. The Montana Department of Agriculture was contacted to obtain data on acres planted for each crop type by county 28 for the years 1972-73. Data for 1974 were not published at the time of this analysis, so an average of the years was used to represent 1974 data. A summary of acres planted by crop type for each county is presented in Table 13.1. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The windblown dust emission factor equation for deter- . . .48 mining particulate emissions is: E=axIxKxCxL'xV' (eq.4) where E = emission factor, ton/acre/yr a = portion of total wind erosion losses that would be measured as particulates, estimated at 0.025 I = soil erodibility, ton/acre/yr K = surface roughness factor C = climatic factor L1 « unsheltered field width factor V' = vegetative cover factor 13-1 ------- Table 13.1. 1974 AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS Emission factors, Particulate ton/acre/yr Planted emissions, County & Crop type IK C L' V' E acres ton/yr Flathead 86 .10 Wheat 0.6 .83 0 neg 16,950 -— Barley 0.6 .83 0 neg 26,550 Corn 0.6 .83 .27 .029 300 9 Oats 0.8 .90 0 neg 2,400 Hay 0.8 .90 0 neg 22,800 Alfalfa 1.0 .85 0 neg 23,150 Potatoes 0.8 .77 .46 .061 835 51 Lake 56 .10 Wheat 0.6 .75 0 neg 9,150 Barley 0.6 .75 0 neg 8,350 Corn 0.6 .75 .23 .014 700 10 Oats 0.8 .80 0 neg 2,800 Hay 0.8 .80 0 neg 26,950 Alfalfa 1.0 .73 0 neg 41,050 Potatoes 0.8 .68 .40 .030 2,315 69 Missoula 56 .10 Wheat 0.6 .75 0 neg 4,550 Barley 0.6 .75 0 neg 3,500 Corn 0.6 .75 .23 .014 500 7 Oats 0.8 .80 0 neg 2,950 Hay 0.8 .80 0 neg 8,650 Alfalfa 1.0 .73 0 neg 12,200 ------- Table 13.1 (continued). 1974 AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS Emission factors. Particulate ton/acre/yr Planted emissions, County & Crop type IK C L' V' E acres ton/yr Lewis & Clark 56 .25 Wheat 0.6 .75 0 neg Barley 0.6 .75 0 neg Corn 0.6 .75 .35 .055 Oats 0.8 .80 0 neg Hay 0.8 .80 0 neg Alfalfa 1.0 .73 0 neg Deer Lodge 56 .10 Wheat 0.6 .75 0 neg Barley 0.6 .75 0 neg Hay 0.8 .80 0 neg Alfalfa 1.0 .73 0 neg Potatoes 0.8 .68 .40 .030 Silver Bow 56 .10 Wheat 0.6 .75 0 neg Barley 0.6 .75 0 neg Oats 0.8 .80 0 neg Hay 1.0 .80 0 neg Alfalfa 0.8 .73 0 neg 12,600 12,950 200 11 5,600 19,550 22,150 350 1,050 5,300 7,500 190 100 250 450 5,450 1,550 ------- Table 13.1 (continued). 1974 AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS County & Crop type I Emission factors, ton/acre/yr K C L' V" E Planted acres Particulate emissions, ton/yr Yel lows tone 47 .45 Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 85,100 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 26,350 Corn 0.6 .72 .44 .101 11,900 1202 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 9,250 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 9,250 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 19,200 Sugar beets 0.6 .56 .88 .156 10/225 1595 Beans 0.5 .53 .68 .095 1,250 119 Carbon 47 .35 Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 17,950 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 19,900 Corn 0.6 .72 .38 .068 2,450 167 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 3,200 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 28,800 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 32,650 Sugar beets 0.6 .56 .86 .119 7,070 841 Beans 0.5 .53 .66 .072 1,550 112 Stillwater 47 .40 Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 48,900 —— Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 26,950 Corn 0.6 .72 .41 .083 2,950 245 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 8,650 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 18,400 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 27,100 Sugar beets 0.6 .56 .87 .137 960 132 Beans 0.5 .53 .67 .083 100 8 ------- Table 13.1 (continued). 1974 AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS Emission factors, Particulate ton/acre/yr Planted emissions, County & Crop type I K C L' V1 E acres ton/yr Sweetgrass 56 • 35 Wheat 0.6 .75 0 neg 8,950 Barley 0.6 .75 0 neg 9,300 Oats 0.8 .80 0 neg 3,500 Hay 0.8 .80 0 neg 32,900 Alfalfa 1.0 .73 0 neg 27,900 Big Horn 47 .35 Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 66,150 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 19,950 Corn 0.6 .72 .38 .068 11,150 758 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 3,650 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 25,450 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 47,250 Beans 0.5 .53 .66 .072 1,050 76 Rosebud 47 .45 Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 21,850 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 11,050 Corn 0.6 .72 .44 .101 5,650 571 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 5,250 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 7,200 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 30,120 Sugar beets 0.6 .56 .88 .156 1,285 200 Beans 0.5 .53 .68 .095 150 14 ------- Table 13.1 (continued). 1974 AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS County & Crop type Emission factors, ton/acre/yr I K C L' V' E Planted acres Particulate emissions, ton/yr Treasure 47 .45 Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 4,650 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 2,250 Corn 0.6 .72 .44 .101 3,850 389 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 1,000 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 3,400 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 9,400 Sugar beets 0.6 .56 .88 .156 3,930 613 Beans 0.5 .53 .68 .095 750 71 Custer 47 o in • Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 14,850 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 8,000 Corn 0.6 .72 .47 .119 7,850 934 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 5,650 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 18,700 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 16,150 Sugar beets 0.6 .56 .89 .176 2,395 422 Beans 0.5 .53 .69 .107 100 11 Fallon 56 .45 Wheat 0.6 .75 0 neg 54,100 Barley 0.6 .75 0 neg 22,600 Corn 0.6 .75 .50 .142 2,250 320 Oats 0.8 .80 0 neg 9,950 Hay 0.8 .80 0 neg 10,250 Alfalfa 1.0 .73 0 neg 29,900 ------- Table 13-1 (continued). 1974 AGRICULTURE EMISSIONS Emission factors, Particulate ton/acre/yr Planted emissions, County & Crop type IK C L' V* E acres ton/yr Powder River 47 .40 Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 28,350 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 5,900 Corn 0.6 .72 .41 .083 300 25 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 8,200 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 20,550 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 42,250 Carter 47 in • Wheat 0.6 .72 0 neg 23,150 Barley 0.6 .72 0 neg 8,650 Corn 0.6 .72 .44 .101 550 56 Oats 0.8 .77 0 neg 9,850 Hay 0.8 .77 0 neg 25,250 Alfalfa 1.0 .69 0 neg 34,950 ------- In the equation, K, C, L', and V* are dimensionless. 48 In the EPA fugitive dust publication, the map of major soil types in the Northern Great Plain states was used to determine value I. C, K, L1, and V' were also obtained from data presented in the report. A summary of the parameters used to calculate emission factors by crop type are presented in Table 13.1. Emission factors are then multiplied by the corresponding planted acres to arrive at total annual emissions. The particulate emissions for each crop type and county are listed in Table 13.1 The agricultural tilling emission factor equation for g determining particulate emissions is: t? 1.4s . E = (eq.5) (PE/50) where E = emission factor, lb/acre s = silt content of surface soil, percent PE = Thornthwaite's precipitation-evapora- tion index In the equation, silt content (s) was estimated with information found on analysis of soil classes51 and the map 48 of major soil types m the Northern Great Plain states. The agricultural tilling equation represents one pass of a tractor over each acre. It is assumed that multiplying the emission factor found in the equation by a factor of three will represent the particulate emission factor for the combined emissions of all phases of field preparation and subsequent cultivation. For agricultural activities, 80 percent of the emis- sions predicted by the tilling equation are likely to remain D as suspended particulates. Therefore, the calculated emissions for agricultural operations were reduced by 20 13-8 ------- percent to find the amount of suspended particulates. The values of s, PE, and the particulate emissions by county are recorded in Table 13.2. PROJECTIONS By assuming that the various climatic and geological (and soil) conditions remain constant in the AQMA counties (i.e., no changes in soil erodibility, surface roughness, climate, vegetative cover, silt content, etc.), the projec- tions of agricultural particulate emissions can be reduced to a problem of projecting acreage under cultivation. While detailed historical information existed for acreages planted 28 for the various crops by county, no projections were available for the same categories of base year data. Windblown dust emissions for the base year 1974 are summarized in Table 13.3. As seen in the table, these emissions occur primarily from four crops-corn, potatoes, sugar beets, and beans. Growth factors for projected acreages 15 of these crops were developed from OBERS state data pro- jecting acres of cropland harvested. Separate estimates were given for feed crops including corn (also includes grain, oats, barley, and hay), and for food crops including potatoes, sugar beets, and beans (also includes wheat, rye, rice, fruits, vegetables, and sugar cane). Since the data were available for 1964, 1980, and 1985 only, a linear extrapolation was made to derive a 1974 base year estimate. These growth factors are shown in Table 13.4 by type of crop. Application of these growth factors to the base year emissions producing the future emissions are presented in Table 13.5. Particulate emissions from agricultural operations are directly related to all agricultural tilling. In order to derive growth factors in this category, state OBERS data 13-9 ------- sio n/y 33 49 17 65 12 7 145 95 113 84 147 66 25 59 125 85 82 Table 13.2. AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS 1974 Total acres Percent planted Silt PE Index E 3xE 92,985 30 59 0.30 .90 91,315 45 59 .45 1.35 32,350 45 59 .45 1.35 73,050 45 46 .74 2.22 14,390 45 47 .71 2.13 7,800 45 47 .71 2.13 172,525 37 43 .70 2.10 113,570 37 43 .70 2.10 134,010 37 43 .70 2.10 82,550 45 43 .85 2.55 174,650 37 43 .70 2.10 82,555 37 44 .67 2.01 29,230 37 43 .70 2.10 73,695 37 44 .67 2.01 129,050 45 44 .81 2.43 105,550 37 44 .67 2.01 102,400 37 44 .67 2.01 ------- TABLE 13-3. SUMMARY OF WINDBLOWN DUST AND AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS EMISSIONS (TONS/YR) - 1974 Windblown Dust Emissions Agricultural Sugar Total Operations County • Corn Potato Beets Beans Crop Emissions Flathead 9 51 . 60 33 Lake 10 69 - - 79 49 Missoula 7 - - - 7 17 Lewis & Clark 11 - - - 11 65 Deer Lodge - 6 - - 6 12 Silver Bow - - - - - 7 Yellowstone 1202 - 1595 119 2916 145 Carbon 167 - 841 112 1120 95 Stillwater 245 - 132 8 385 113 Sweet Grass - - - - - 84 Big Horn 758 - - 76 834 147 Rosebud 571 - 200 14 785 66 Treasure 389 - 613 71 1073 25 Custer 934 - 422 11 1367 59 F allon 320 - - - 320 125 Powder River 25 - - - 25 85 Carter 56 - - - 56 82 ------- TABLE 13-4. DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTH FACTORS Growth Factors 1980 Growth Factors 1985 ~ 1 Corn Potato 1 Sugar Beets Beans*" Total1 1 1. 02 0.94 0.94 0.94 0. 98' 0.99 0.90 0.90 0. 90 0.95: (Feed Crop) (Food Crop) Agricultural Operations 0.95 0.92 1 Projected OBERS Statewide acreages for following crops available for feed and food crops; projections are for cropland harvested. 2 Based on OBERS State projection of land used for crops and including cropland harvested, cultivated summer fallow, and failure (not including cropland used for grazing). 3 Derived from Table 13-4. 13-12 ------- TABLE 13-5. PROJECTIONS OF WINDBLOWN DUST EMISSIONS Corn Potato Sugar Beets Beans Total Crop County 1980 1985 1980 1985 1980 1985 1980 1985 1980 1985 Flathead 9 9 48 46 _ 57 55 Lake 10 10 65 62 - - . - - 75 72 Missoula 7 7 - - - - - - 7 7 Lewis & Clark 11 11 - - - - - - 11 11 Deer Lodge - - 6 5 - - - - 6 5 Silver Bow - - - - - - - - - - Y ellowstone 1226 1190 - - 1499 1436 112 107 2837 2733 Carbon 170 165 - 791 757 105 101 1066 1023 Stillwater 250 243 - " 124 119 8 7 382 369 Sweet Grass - - - " - - - - - - Big Horn 773 750 - " - - 71 68 844 818 Rosebud 582 5 65 - " 188 180 13 13 783 758 Treasure 397 385 - " 576 552 67 64 1040 1001 Custer 953 925 - " 397 380 10 10 1360 1315 Fallon 326 317 - " - - - - 326 317 Powder River 25 25 - " - - - - 25 25 Carter 57 55 _ 57 55 ------- were used which projected total acres of land used for all crops, i.e., cropland harvested, cultivated summer fallow, and failure (cropland used only for grazing). Again, the data were only available for 1964, 1980, and 1985 and a linear extrapolation was used to develop a 1974 base year acreage estimate. These base year emissions were previously summarized in Table 13.3. The growth factors developed from the OBERS data are included in Table 13.4. Application of the growth factors to the base year emissions resulted in the projected agricultural operations emissions given in Table 13.6. 13-14 ------- TABLE 13-6. PROJECTIONS OF AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS EMISSIONS County Growth F actor 1980 Emissions (Tons/Yr) Growth Factor 1985 Emissions (Tons/Yr) Flathead 0. 95 31 0.92 30 Lake 0. 95 47 0.92 45 Mis soula 0.95 16 0.92 16 Lewis & Clark 0.95 62 0.92 60 Deer Lodge 0. 95 11 0.92 11 Silver Bow 0. 95 7 0.92 6 Y ellowstone 0. 95 138 0.92 133 Carbon 0.95 90 0.92 87 Stillwater 0.95 107 0.92 104 Sweet Grass 0. 95 80 0.92 77 Big Horn 0.95 140 0.92 135 Ros ebud 0.95 63 0.92 61 Treasure 0.95 24 0.92 23 Custer 0.95 56 0.92 54 F allon 0.95 119 0.92 115 Powder River 0.95 81 0.92 78 Carter 0.95 78 0.92 75 13-15 ------- 14. CONSTRUCTION DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY For purposes of estimating emissions, three different types of construction were identified: residential; commer- cial and public; highway. Data for the first two types of construction were obtained for the cities of Billings and Missoula as these were the two areas for which significant construction related emissions could be expected. The acreage of residential and of commercial and public during 1974 were estimated from the number of construction 52 51 permits issued for each type of construction: ' Number of construction permits, 1974 Billings Missoula 1 family DU 419 209 2 family DU 38 29 3 or more family DU 13 24 Commercial facility 47 36 Public facility 6 It was estimated that excavation and regrading exposed about 0.1 acre each for 1 and 2 family dwelling units, and 0.5 acre each for larger dwellings and for commercial facilities. Acreage for public buildings was estimated for each individual construction project. The average construc- tion time for excavation and regrading was estimated to be four months for residential construction and six months for commercial and public construction. 14-1 ------- The Montana Department of Highways was contacted to 54 obtain data on highway projects constructed in 1974. Acreage of highway construction was determined from the miles and width of the project, as well as the length of time that the project was under construction. It was assumed that a width of 50 feet was exposed during con- struction of a two lane highway and width of 150 feet was exposed during construction of a four lane highway. It was further assumed that until a project was 50 percent complete it would still be an emission source. The miles and the months of construction for each county are listed in Table 14.1. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The average particulate emission factor for construe- 48 tion is 1.2 ton/acre/mo. The following is the necessary calculation to correct this emission factor to reflect differences in climate between the test sites used to develop the emission factor and the counties in Montana: 2 E = —(PE test)— x 1.2 ton/acre/mo (eq.6) (PE county) where E = emission factor, ton/acre/mo PE = Thornthwaite's precipitation- evaporative index e.g. E » (31)* . 1.2 (59) = .33 ton/acre/mo Calculating the emission applying these factors to the and multiplying by the number listed in Table 14.2. factor for each county, then county construction acreage, of months yield the emissions 14-2 ------- Table 14.1. 1974 HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION County Length, mi Width, ft Acres Months Flathead 4.1 50 24.8 6 Missoula 1.7 150 30.9 6 9.3 50 56.4 4 Lewis & Clark 2.5 50 15.2 4 Silver Bow 7.8 150 141.8 8 7.9 150 143.6 7 Yellowstone 7.3 150 132.7 3 Carbon 5.8 50 35.2 7 Sweetgrass 0.7 50 4.2 6 Big Horn 3.4 50 20.6 5 Custer 6.5 50 39.4 6 Powder River 5.9 50 35.8 6 14-3 ------- Table 14.2. 1974 AREA SOURCE CONSTRUCTION EMISSIONS 1974 Particulate emissions Total Commercial Construction PE, E, Residential, & public, Highway, emissions, County index ton/acre/mo ton/yr ton/yr ton/yr ton/yr Flathead 59 .33 49.1 49.1 Lake 59 .33 Missoula 59 .33 47.3 63.4 135.6 246.3 Lewis & Clark 46 .54 32.8 32.8 Deer Lodge 47 .52 Silver Bow 47 .52 1112.6 1112.6 Yellowstone 43 .62 129.5 87.4 246.8 463.7 Carbon 43 .62 152.8 152.8 Stillwater 43 .62 Sweetgrass 43 .62 15.6 15.6 Big Horn 43 .62 63.9 63.9 Rosebud 44 .60 Treasure 43 .62 Custer 44 .60 141.8 141.8 Fallon 44 .60 Powder River 44 .60 128.9 128.9 Carter 44 .60 ------- PROJECTIONS Projected emissions from construction were calculated by applying growth factors to the residential and the commercial and public construction. Highway construction emissions were calculated from data supplied by the State Highway Department. Residential, Commercial and Public Growth factors for residential and for commercial and public construction were calculated from OBERS BEA economic 15 area projections, where Billings falls in BEA economic area 095 and Missoula is within BEA economic area 153. The indices used to determine the growth factors were "contract construction." Since no data were available for 1974, the base year factor was calculated from the 1971 historical figure and the 1980 projection figure by linear interpolation for each BEA economic area. Growth factors were then calculated for each BEA economic area and applied to the base year emissions. The following are the projected emissions for residential and for commercial and public construction: Projected residential, commercial and public construction emissions, ton/yr City (County) 1974 Partic emissions Growth factor 1980 Partic emissions Growth factor 1985 Partic emissions Billings 216.9 1.200 260.3 1.340 290.6 (Yellowstone) Missoula 110.7 1.113 123.2 1.241 137.4 (Missoula) 14-5 ------- Highway The Montana Highway Department provided data on projected 55 highway construction through the fiscal year 1981, with a few projects scheduled to start after 1981. It was assumed that the construction proposed for 1980 would be started during 1980 and any project scheduled after 1981 would actually be started in 1985 and that each project would be an emissions source for six months. The projected highway construction emissions are presented in Table 14.3. The emission estimates for construction are based on a constant emission factor used to develop base year emissions. 14-6 ------- Table 14.3. PROJECTED HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION 1980 1985 Emis Partic Partic Factor, Lgth, Wdth, emis, Lgth, Wdth, emis, County ton/ac/mo mi ft Acres MO ton/yr mi ft Acres MO ton/yr Flathead .33 10.6 50 64.2 6 127.1 6.5 50 39.4 6 78.0 Lake .33 5.4 50 32.7 6 64.7 - 50 - 6 - Missoula .33 1.2 50 7.3 6 14.5 8.8 50 53.3 6 105.5 Lewis & Clark .54 - 50 - 6 - 0.9 50 5.5 6 17.8 Deer Lodge .52 - 50 - 6 - - 50 - 6 - Silver Bow .52 1.4 50 8.5 6 26.5 - 50 - 6 — Yellowstone .62 9.1 50 55.2 6 205.3 4.0 50 24.2 6 90.0 Carbon .62 - 50 - 6 - - 50 - 6 - Stillwater .62 - 50 - 6 - 4.5 50 27.3 6 101.6 Sweetgrass .62 - 50 - 6 - 9.5 50 57.6 6 214.3 Big Horn .62 35.4 50 214.5 6 797.9 6.5 50 39.4 6 146.6 Rosebud .60 109.8 50 665.5 6 2395.8 - 50 - 6 - Treasure .62 13.0 50 78.8 6 293.1 - 50 - 6 — Custer .60 13.5 50 81.8 6 294.5 8.2 50 49.7 6 178.9 Fallon .60 - 50 - 6 - - 50 - 6 - Powder River .60 8.0 50 48.5 6 174.6 - 50 - 6 — Carter .60 - 50 - 6 - - 50 - 6 — ------- 15. AGGREGATE STORAGE PILES DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY The Montana Department of Highways provided data on the amount of stockpiled aggregate maintained by the Department S 6 for the AQMA counties in 1974. The emissions from aggre- gate stockpiled by private industry will be considered in the 1974 point source emission inventory. Therefore, industrial aggregate storage area source emissions are assumed to be negligible. The amount of aggregate stock- piled by the Highway Department for each AQMA county is listed in Table 15.1. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The particulate emission factor for estimating the total amount of dust emissions with drift potential greater than 1000 feet (particles less than 30 microns in diameter) 4T 11 48 is as follows: E = (0.33) v (PE/100)2 (eq.7) where E = emission factor, pounds per ton PE = Thornthwaite1s precipitation-evaporation index Using the map of PE values for state climatic divisions 48 in the EPA publication, it is possible to determine the PE index for the AQMA counties. These PE values and the asso- ciated emission factors are listed in Table 15.1. Applying 15-1 ------- Table 15.1. 1974 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS FROM AGGREGATE STORAGE PILES 1974 Aggregate Emission Particulate stockpiled, PE factor emissions, County tons Index lb/ton ton/yr Flathead 70,843 59 0.95 33.7 Lake 70,181 59 0.95 33.3 Missoula 53,063 59 0.95 25.2 Lewis & Clark 34,663 46 1.56 27.0 Deer Lodge 10,270 47 1.49 7.7 Silver Bow 11,060 47 1.49 8.2 Yellowstone 45,258 43 1.78 40.3 Carbon 34,213 43 1.78 30.4 Stillwater 23,549 43 1.78 21.0 Sweetgrass 51,603 43 1.78 45.9 Big Horn 71,862 43 1.78 64.0 Rosebud 67,684 44 1.70 57.5 Treasure 14,746 43 1.78 13.1 Custer 27,850 44 1.70 23.7 Fallon 45,686 44 1.70 38.8 Powder River 10,604 44 1.70 9.0 Carter 67,684 44 1.70 57.5 15-2 ------- these emission factors to the tons of aggregate stockpiled yields the particulate emissions for 1974 recorded in Table 15.1. PROJECTIONS As in the base year estimates, it is assumed industrial aggregate storage piles are accounted for in the point source inventory and that the only significant area source is the Montana Department of Highways. Stockpiled aggregate maintained by the Department of Highways is highly variable and related to a number of planned construction efforts. Overall, however, it is assumed the amount (or tonnages) of aggregate does not change substantially from year to year, although certain amounts may be moved about from county to county. For purposes of these projections, it is estimated these emissions will remain constant through 1985. 15-3 ------- 16. DUST FROM PAVED ROADS DATA INVENTORY AND METHODOLOGY Only a small amount of information is presently avail- able on emission rates or procedures for estimating dust emissions from paved streets and highways. Various groups are currently conducting studies to obtain data on the air pollution impact of reintrained dust from roads. PEDCo 57 recently did a particulate emission inventory of Nashville in which it was assumed that these emissions are directly proportional to the amount of traffic (VMT). The VMT data for the Montana AQMA counties have already been generated to estimate exhaust emissions and emissions from unpaved roads. The VMT on unpaved roads were sub- tracted from the VMT totals to obtain VMT on paved roads. These data are listed in Table 16.1. BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The emission factor derived for the Nashville study was 1.75 gm/VMT for those days with no precipitation. It was assumed that this factor could be applied directly to the VMT on paved roads in Montana, without taking into account days with precipitation or snow cover. The reasoning behind this assumption is that during the winter months the normal amount of loose material on road surfaces is increased substantially by periodic sanding for snow and ice control. Consequently, the emissions would be higher during those months that the sanding takes place. However, with days of precipitation and snow cover, over the course of the year 16-1 ------- Table 16.1. EMISSIONS FROM PAVED ROADS County Annual 10"^ VMT paved roads Particulate emissions, ton/yr Flathead 291,364 562 Lake 120,730 233 Missoula 365,071 704 Lewis St Clark 210,531 406 Deer Lodge 88,440 170 Silver Bow 215,057 414 Yellowstone 479,874 925 Carbon 70,457 136 Stillwater 63,649 123 Sweetgrass 53,295 103 Big Horn 114,642 221 Rosebud 74,603 144 Treasure 22,245 43 Custer 89,052 172 Fallon 25,850 50 Powder River 24,970 48 Carter 15,953 31 16-2 ------- the emission factor of 1.75 gm/VMT would represent a reason- ably good average. The emissions calculated using this factor are recorded in Table 16.1. PROJECTIONS Projections of particulate emissions from paved roads were prepared under the assumption that such emissions are directly proportional to vehicle miles travelled (VMT) in each county. Thus, the base year emissions are multiplied by VMT growth factors as used in Section 12 for unpaved roads, and Section 7 for highway mobile source projections. Implicit in this assumption is the assumption that the emission factors and vehicle mixes used to develop the base year inventory will not significantly change over the next ten years. The resulting projections are summarized in Table 16.2. 16-3 ------- TABLE 16-2. PAVED ROADS PARTICULATE EMISSION PROJECTION (TONS/YR) 1980 1985 County 1974 Growth Factor Part. Growth Factor Part. Flathead 562 1.18 663 1.38 783 Lake 233 1.17 273 1.37 319 Missoula 704 1.37 964 1. 67 1321 Lewis & Clark 406 1.15 467 1,33 537 Deer Lodge 170 1.11 189 1.23 209 Silver Bow 414 1.06 439 1.13 465 Y ellowstone 925 1.47 1360 1.79 1999 Carbon 136 1. 14 155 1.31 177 Stillwater 123 1.13 139 1.28 157 Sweetgrass 103 1. 15 118 1.33 136 Big Horn 221 1.19 263 1.42 313 Ros ebud 144 1.25 180 1.57 225 Treasure 43 1.14 49 1.29 56 Custer 172 1.09 187 1.20 204 F allon 50 1.10 55 1.22 61 Powder River 48 1.16 5 6 1.36 65 Carter 31 1.18 37 1.38 43 16-4 ------- APPENDIX A POPULATION PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS An important aspect of projecting area source emissions is determining what county population projections should be used. For Montana, the following data which were readily available and determined applicable for making projections are presented: ° Provisional county estimates for July 1, 1974 from the Bureau of the Census, Federal-State Cooperative Program Estimates. Also, from the same source, county estimates of population for 1972 and 1973. 0 State OBERS projections for 1980 and 1985, using Series E population projection assump- tions; these forecasts are made to the year 2020 as well, with historical data from 1950. 0 State BEA economic area projections for 1980 and 1985, based on Series E population pro- jection assumptions; these forecasts are made to the year 2020 as well, with historical data from 1950. ° Federal census data for 1970 disaggregated by county. Local population estimates from 1971 through 1973 and the provisional 1974 estimates, based on locally obtained data, showed population growth trends substantially higher than the OBERS trends which projected a decline in both the statewide and BEA economic area population for 1980 and 1985. For this analysis, it was decided that although the local estimates for recent trends were probably more accur- ate (since they were based on local data), the long-term A-l ------- OBERS projections should not be ignored. In order to bring recent county-wide trends more in line with the OBERS fore- casts, it was assumed that the average annual growth exper- ienced in each county from 1970-1974 would decrease by one- half through 1980 and 1985. There were also four counties which lost population from 1970 to 1974. It was assumed that these counties would continue to decline in population in a linear fashion from the average decline experienced between 1970 and 1974. In summary, the population projections and growth factors shown in Table A are based on the following assumptions 0 Population will increase or decrease in a linear, arithmetic fashion based on mean rates of change experienced from 1970-1974. 0 Counties which have increased in population from 1970-1974 will continue to increase at 50 percent of the recent arithmetic mean rate of growth. 0 Counties which are declining in population will continue to decline at the same arith- metic mean rate experienced from 1970-1974. The following population projections for the AQMA counties resulted (Table A). ------- TABLE A. MONTANA AQMA COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR 1980 AND 1985 (IN THOUSANDS) County 1970 Census Data 1974 Pro- sional Estimates 1980 Projection 1980 Growth Factor 1985 Projection 1985 Growth Factor Flathead 39. 5 42. 6 45.0 1.06 46.9 1.10 Lake 14. 5 16.7 18.4 1.10 19. 8 1. 19 Missoula 58. 3 63.7 67.8 1.06 71.3 1.12 Lewis & Clark 33.3 36.0 38.0 1.06 39.7 1. 10 Deer Lodge 15.7 15.1 14. 3 0.96 13. 6 0.90 Silver Bow 42. 0 43.2 44.1 1.02 44.9 1. 04 Y ellows tone 87.4 94.3 99.5 1.06 103.8 1.10 Carbon 7. 1 7.9 8.5 1.08 9.0 1.14 Stillwater 4. 6 5.2 5. 6 1.08 6.0 1.15 Sweetgrass 3. 0 3.1 3.2 1.03 3.3 1.07 Big Horn 10. 1 10.5 10.8 1.03 11.1 1. 06 Rosebud 7. 1 7.7 9.0 1.17 10.0 1.30 Treasure 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.08 1.4 1.17 Custer 12.2 12.3 12.4 1.01 12.5 1.02 Fallon 4. 1 3.9 3.7 0.95 3.5 0.90 Powder River 2.9 2.2 1.2 0. 55 0.4 0. 18 Carter 2. 0 1.9 1.8 0.95 1.7 0.90 ------- APPENDIX B ------- VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED and AVERAGE TRAFFIC SPEEDS Billings, Montana Prepared for PEDCo - Environmental Specialists, Inc. By Alan M. Voorhees and Associates, Inc. 288 Clayton Street Denver, Colorado 80206 ------- Introduction The Billings,. Montana, area, for which vehicular travel.data (VMT and travel speed) were obtained, consists of the Billings "urban area" as defined in the published comprehensive transportation plan prepared by the Montana Department of Highways. This consists of the City of Billings and the surrounding urbanized, but unincorporated, fringe area. The Billings urban area is shown in Figure 1. Methodology for Establishing Baseline VMT The basis for VMT and Average Travel Speed data were obtained from the Montana Department of Highways, Bureau of Planning and Research, in Helena, Montana. Source material included the comprehensive transpor- tation plan for Billings entitled "Billings, Montana, Urban Transportation Plan" by Clark, Coleman and Rupeiks, Inc.; and DeLeuw, Cather; April, 1969. This publication, which was based on surveys conducted in 1966, included development of a recommended 1990 highway system for Billings together with estimated 1990 traffic volumes. Also utilized was a publication entitled "Traffic by Sections," prepared by the Montana Department of Highways, Bureau of Planning and Research, containing 1973 traffic volume counts. In addition to these publications, unpublished material were obtained including 1974 "traffic by sections" and a 1973 update to the recommended plan network (prepared in April 1975), which contains estimated 1973 volumes on all the links of the Billings street and highway network. Montana Highway Department personnel contacted in Helena, regarding the Billings VMT and speed data, included the following: Paul DeVine, Chief, Planning and Research Bureau Ed Donovan, Statistics Section, Planning and Research Engineer Keemm Bingham, Urban Transportation Section, Planning and Research Bureau A summary of the baseline VMT data compiled for Billings is given in Table 1. The footnotes in the table explain methodology and sources. The most reliable VMT estimate is the 809, 300 vehicle-miles of travel for 1973 This figure was derived from a very recent (April 1975) computerized assignment of 1973 traffic to the present Billings street and highway network. It was compared with the 1966 and 1990 VMT estimates (obtained from the Billings Urban Transportation Plan) which were plotted on a graph. The 1973 calculated VMT value compared favorably with a trend line connecting the two estimated values for 1966 and 1990. B-l ------- w I ro Q a m i i a \ FIGURE 1 BILLINGS ttUOOSTWC COUNIT MONTANA ------- Table 2 ESTIMATION OF BASELINE YMT. Billings, Montana Street and Highways Federal Aid Interstate Federal Aid Primary Federal Aid Secondary Federal Aid Urban Other Major Arterials & Collectors Minor Collector & Local Streets TOTALS Vehicle Miles Trave'el 1966 AD 451,100 221,500 (3) 1973-74 90, 250 101,100 9,500 411,800 196,650 (2) 672, 600 (2) 809,300 (4) (1) 1966 data are estimates of VMT computed from Link Volume data contained in "Urban Transportation Plan, Billings, Montana," by Clark, Coleman and Rupeiks, Inc., April 1969 (2) 1973-1974 data for the Federal Aid Highway system are from "Traffic by Sections, Montana, 1973" by the Montana Department of Highways (supplemented by preliminary 1974 traffic-by-section data) (3) Tistimateby AMV (4) VMT calculated for the Billings Urban Area from a 1973 Update Assignment of 1973 traffic to the Billings street and highway network. The assignment was made for the Montana Highway Department, Bureau of Planning and Research. B-3 ------- Table 2 COMPARISON OF TRIP GENERATION AND TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS Billings, Montana ITEM 1966 1990 1. Population 77,463 149,100 2. No. of Households 24, 735 46.760 3. Persons per Household 3.13 3.18 4. Total Employment 28, 768 51,246 5. Vehicles Owned 30.889 81,830 ** 6. Vehicles per Household 1.25 1.75 * 7. Persons per Registered Vehicle 2.51 1.82 8. Vehicle Trips Made 210,180 433,000 ** 9. Trips per Person 2.58 2.90* 10. Trips per Household 8.51 9.20 ** 11. Trips per Vehicle 6.8 5.3 ** 12. Average Trip Length (miles) 3. 2 4.0 * 13. Miles of Street System N. A. N. A. 14. Vehicle Miles Traveled 672, 600 t. 730,000 **' Source: "Unstarred" data from "Urban Transportation Plan, Billings, Montana," by Clark, Coleman and Rupeiks, Inc., and DeLeuw, Cather and Associates, April 1969. * Estimates by AMV ** Calculated by AMV (1) A 1990 Link Volume Map for the Billings Recommended Plan showed approximately 1,477,000 VMT on the major street and highway network ------- VMT for 1975. 19 80 and 1985 The best available information for estimating 1975, 1980 and 1985 VMT is the report, "Urban Transportation Plan, Billings, Montana, prepared in April 1969. This report summarizes 1966 and projected 1990 socio- economic data for Billings. It contains some forecasts of travel parameters. These data are summarized in Table 2. Where future travel data for 1990 was not given, AMV has estimated future travel parameters (i.e., vehicles per household, trips per person, average trip length) which allow the calculation of 1990 VMT. Based upon 1966 and 1990 VMT estimates, plus the baseline value of 809,300 VMT for 1973, projections have been made of 1975, 1980 and 1985 VMT values. These are given in Table 3. Table 3 PROJECTIONS OF VMT AND TRAVEL SPEEDS Billings. Montana Vehicle Miles Traveled Averaj 1973 1975 1980 1985 Travel Baseline Speed Freeways 90,250 105.000 150.000 200,000 50mph a ptgrials & Collectors 522.400 590.000 772.000 930.000 25a.pt. Streets 196,650 215,000 268,000 320,000 20mph TOTAL 809,300 910,000 1,190,000 1,450,000 Travel Speeds No good data on travel speeds are available from the Billings comprehensive transportation plan. Asa consequence, assumed traffic speeds of 50, 25 and 20 miles-per-hour were jised respectively for freeways, arterials and collectors, and other local streets. These speeds are also shown in Table 3. B-5 ------- VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED and AVERAGE TRAFFIC SPEEDS Missoula, Montana Prepared for PEDCo - Environmental Specialists, Inc. By Alan M. Voorhees and Associates, 288 Clayton Street Denver, Colorado 80206 Inc. ------- Introduction The Missoula, Montana, area, for which vehicular travel data (VMT and travel speed) were obtained , consists of the Missoula "urban area"as defined in the published comprehensive transportation plan prepared by the Montana Department of Highways. This consists of the City of Missoula and the surrounding urbanized, but unincorporated, fringe area. The Missoula urban area is shown in Figure 1. Methodology for Establishing Baseline VMT The basis for VMT and Average Travel Speed data were obtained from the Montana Department of Highways, Bureau of Planning and Research, in Helena, Montana. Source material included the comprehensive transporta- tion plan for Missoula entitled "Missoula, Montana, Urban Transportation Plan" by Clark, Coleman and Rupeiks, Inc., October 1967. This publication, which was based on surveys conducted in 1965, included development of a recommended 1985 highway system for Missoula together with estimated 1985 traffic volumes. Also utilized was a publication entitled "Traffic by Sections," prepared by the Montana Department of Highways, Bureau of Planning and Research, containing 1973 traffic volume counts. In addition to these publications, unpublished material were obtained including 1974 "traffic by sections" and a street map of the Missoula area on which 1973 volumes for many links of the street system had been posted. Montana Highway Department personnel contacted in Helena, regarding the Missoula VMT and speed data, included the following: Paul DeVine, Chief, Planning and Research Bureau Ed Donovan, Statistics Section, Planning and Research Engineer Keenan Bingham, Urban Transportation Section, Planning and Research Bureau A summary of the baseline VMT data compiled for Missoula is given in Table 1. The footnotes in the table explain methodology and sources. The most reliable VMT estimate is the 512,200 vehicle-miles of travel for 1973. This figure was derived from a link-by-link calculation of VMT utilizing 1973 estimates of average daily traffic and link lengths. This estimate correlates reasonably well with the approximately 370,000 vehicle miles of travel estimated for 1965, and the 853,000 vehicle miles of travel estimated for 1985 (from the Missoula Urban Transportation Plan). In other words, when the 1965 and 1985 VMT estimates were plotted, the measured 1973 value fell reasonably close to a line between the plotted values. B-6 ------- K nctitm WW IMMtt 1 3 TjiTy-j ttrit 1 MISSOULA r iAjr UxvUi 1 missc~ji« tw" MONTANA ------- Table 1 ESTIMATION OF BASELINE VMT Missoula, Montana Vehicle Miles Traveled Street and Highways Federal Aid Interstate Federal Aid Primary Federal Aid Secondary Federal Aid Urban Other Arterials & Collectors Minor Collector Streets, Local Streets TOTALS 1965(1) 205, 000 84. 000 54, 600 28, 200 371, 800 1973 - 74 86,900 111,600 6, 500 172,200 (2) 80,000 55, 000 (3) (3) 512, 200 (1) 1965 Data are from Table II—1, "Urban Transportation Plan, Missoula, Montana" by Clark, Coleman and Rupeiks, Inc., October 1967 (2) 1973-1974 Data are from "Traffic by Sections, Montana 1973" by the Montana Department of Highways (Supplemented by preliminary 1974 traffic by section data) (3) Estimate by AMY B-8 ------- Table 2 COMPARISON OF TRIP GENERATION AND TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS Missoula, Montana item 1965 1985 1. Population 2. Number of Households 3. Persons per Household 3a. Total Employment 4. Vehicles Owned 5. Vehicles per Household 6. Persons per Owned Vehicle 7. Vehicle Trips Made 8. Trips per Person 9. Trips per Household 10. Trips per Vehicle 11. Average Trip Length (miles) 12. Miles of Street System 13. Vehicle Miles Traveled 46,430 14,610 3.18 25. 767 1.76 1.80 119.924 2.58 8.21 4.65 3.1* 106.7 (FA P, FAS, City & County Streets) 371,760** 73.500 23, 355 3.15 46,000 1.97 1.60 225,269 3.06 9.64 4.90 3.8 186.9 (Recomended Plan) 853,700 ~Estimated ~~Calculated Source: "Urban Transportation Plan, Missoula, Montana, "Clark, Coleman and Rupeiks, Inc., October 1967 ------- VMT for 1975, 1980 and 1985 The best available information for estimating 1975, 1980 and 1985 VMT is the report ' Urban Transportation Plan, Missoula, Montana,11 published in October 1967. This report summarizes 1965 and projected 19 85 socio- economic data for Missoula. It also contains some forecasts of travel parameters. These data are summarized in Table 2. Based upon 1965 and 1985 VMT estimates, plus the baseline value of 512,200 VMT for 1973, projections have been made of 1975 and 1980 VMT values. These are given in Table 3. Table 3 PROJECTIONS OF VMT AND TRAVEL SPEEDS Missoula, Montana Vehicle Miles Traveled 1973 Baseline 1975 1980 1985 Average Travel Speed Freeways 86, 900 104,000 187,000 283,000 50mph Arterials & Collectors 370,300 398,000 450, 500 503,300 25mph Other Streets 55,000 58,000 62.500 67,400 20mph TOTAL 512,200 56 0, 000 700, 000 853,700 Travel Speeds No good data on travel speeds are available from the Missoula comprehensive transportation plan. As a consequence, assumed traffic speeds of 50, 25 and 20 miles-per-hour were used respectively for freeways, arterials and collectors, and other local streets. These speeds are shown in Table 3. B-10 ------- Table 4 (1) VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED BY VEHICLE TYPE Billings and Missoula, Montana Vehicle Miles Traveled by Vehicle Type (In Thousands) td Urban 1573 1575 1553 1555 ^ Area (Baseline) 1-1 P.C. L.T. H.T. Total P.C. L.T. H.T. Total P.C. L.T. H.T. Total P.C. L.T. H.T. Total Billings 550.3 178.0 81.0 809.3 618.8 200.0 91.2 910.0 839.0 261.0 120.0 1190.0 985.0 318.0 147.0 1450.0 Missoula 338.0 117.5 56.7 512.2 368.0 128.5 63.5 .560.0 460.0 160.0 80.0 700.0 560.0 196.0 97.7 853.7 Key: P.C. - Passenger Car L.T. - Light Truck H.T. - Heavy Truck Source: Montana State Department of Highways, Planning and Research Bureau and Montana State Registrar of Motor Vehicles (Registration Data for 1974) (1) Estioates of VMT by vehicle type based upon percent Of vehicle registration by vehicle type ------- APPENDIX C PROJECTION OF PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM UNPAVED ROADS BY COUNTY ------- SUMMARY OFFLATHEADCOUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 1728 Growth factor 1.18 1.38 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 54 63.72 74.52 Percent miles above 250 ADT 4 5.5" 7 Percent difference from base year 1.5 3 Miles to be paved 25.9 51,8 Average ADT on miles to be paved 270 285 Daily VMT loss due to paving 6, 993 14,763 Daily VMT.(for total unpaved roads) 92,466 102,100 112,800 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 66, 550 73,200 80,900 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 66, 550 78,200 91,500 C-l ------- SUMMARY OF LAKE COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTIONS Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 1,004 Growth factor 1.17 1.37 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 64 74.88 87.68 Percent miles above 250 ADT 5.5 7 10 Percent difference from base year 1.5 4. 5 Miles to be paved 15.1 45.2 Average ADT on miles to be paved 265 285 Daily YMT loss due to paving 4,002 12,882 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 63,897 70,800 74, 700 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 46,069 51,000 53,800 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 46,069 53,900 0s % o o C-2 ------- SUMMARY OF MISSOULA COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads lf 309 Growth factor 1.37 1.67 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 46.9 64.3 78.3 Percent miles above 250 ADT 3.5 6.0 8.0 Percent difference from base year 2.5 4.5 Miles to be paved 32.7 58.9 Average ADT on miles to be paved 280 300 Daily VMT loss due to paving 9,200 17,700 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 61,385 74,900 84,800 Annual Particulate Emissions 45 ,6, 56 000 63 500 with paving (tons) ' Annual Particulate Emissions 45 767 62 900 76 700 without paving (tons) ' * ' C-3 ------- SUMMARY OF LEWIS & CLARK COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 1,060 Growth factor 1.15 1.33 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 58 66.7 77.1 Percent miles above 250 ADT 5 6 8 Percent difference from base year 1 3 Miles to be paved 10.6 31. 8 Average ADT on miles to be paved 260 275 Daily VMT loss due to paving 2,756 8,745 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 61,717 68,219 73,339 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 55,434 61,300 65,900 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 55,434 63,700 73,700 C-4 ------- SUMMARY OF DEER LODGE COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 170 Growth factor 1.11 1.23 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 76 84.4 93.5 Percent miles above 250 ADT 7 9 10.5 Percent difference from base year 2 3.5 Miles to be paved 3.4 6.0 Average ADT on miles to be paved 265 275 Daily VMT loss due to paving 901 1,650 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 12,850 13,363 14,156 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 11,574 12,000 12,700 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 11,574 12,800 14,200 C-5 ------- SUMMARY OF SILVER BOW COUNTY UNFAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 252 Growth factor 1.06 1.13 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 65 68.9 73.5 Percent miles above 250 ADT 5.5 6 7 Percent difference from base year 0.5 1.5 Miles to be paved 1.3 3.8 Average ADT on miles to be paved 255 262.5 Daily VMT loss due to paving 332 998 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 16,474 17,100 17,600 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 14,270 14,800 15,200 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 14,270 15,000 16,100 ------- SUMMARY OF YELLOWSTONE COUNTY (BILLINGS) UNPAYED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 1,185 Growth factor 1.47 1.79 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 45.9 67.5 82.2 Percent miles above 250 ADT 3.5 6.0 8.0 Percent difference from base year 2.5 4.5 Miles to be paved 29.6 53.3 Average ADT on miles to be paved 280 300 Daily VMT loss due to paving 8,300 16,000 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 54, 400 71,700 81,400 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 44,900 58,900 66,800 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 44,900 64,900 80,000 C-7 ------- SUMMARY OF CARBON COUNTY UNPAYED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 766 Growth factor 1.14 1.31 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 46 52.4 60.0 Percent miles above 250 ADT 3 4 5 Percent difference from base year 1 2 Miles to be paved 7.7 15.3 Average ADT on miles to be paved 265 280 Daily VMT loss due to paving 2, 040.5 4,284.i Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 35, 071 37,940 41,659 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 29,480 31,900 35, 000 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 29,480 33,600 38, 700 C-8 ------- SUMMARY OF STILLWATER COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 830 Growth factor 1.13 1.28 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 54 61.0 69.1 Percent miles above 250 ADT 4 5 6. 5 Percent difference from base year 1 2.5 Miles to be paved 8.3 20.8 Average ADT on miles to be paved 260 277.5 Daily VMT loss due to paving 2,158 5,772 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 24, 422 25,400 25,500 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 20,036 20,800 20,900 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 20,036 22,600 25,600 C-9 ------- SUMMARY OF SWEETGRASS COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 482 Growth factor 1.15 1.33 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 36 41.4 47.9 Percent miles above 250 ADT 1.9 2.7 3.2 Percent difference from base year .8 1.3 Miles to be paved 3.86 6.27 Average ADT on miles to be paved 270 277.5 Daily VMT loss due to paving 1,042.2 1,739.9 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 17,389 18,955 21,387 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 14,609 15,900 18,000 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 14,609 16,800 19,400 C-10 ------- SUMMARY OF BIG HORN COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 960 Growth factor 1,19 1.42 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 41 48.8 58.4 Percent miles above 250 ADT 2.7 3.5 5 Percent difference from base year .8 2.3 Miles to be paved 7.7 22.1 Average ADT on miles to be paved 265 285 Daily VMT loss due to paving 2, 041 6,299 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 39,201 44, 600 49,400 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 32,761 37,300 41,300 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 32,761 39,000 46, 600 C-ll ------- SUMMARY OF ROSEBUD COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 1,268 Growth factor 1.25 1.57 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 24 30 37. 6 Percent miles above 250 ADT 1.1 1.6 2-5 Percent difference from base year . 5 1.4 Miles to be paved 6. 3 17. 8 Average ADT on miles to be paved 270 290 Daily VMT loss due to paving 1,701 5,162 Daily YMT (for total unpaved roads) 30,092 35,900 42,000 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 23,608 28, 200 33,000 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 23, 608 29,500 37, 000 C-12 ------- SUMMARY OF TREASURE COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 305 Growth factor 1.14 1.29 County average ADT (unpaved roads) .15 17.10 19.39 Percent miles above 250 ADT 0. 6 0.7 0.8 Percent difference from base year 0.1 0.2 Miles to be paved .31 .61 Average ADT on miles to be paved 255. 260 Daily VMT loss due to paving 79 159 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 4, 695 i 5,273 5,898 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) 3, 699 4,200 4, 600 Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 3, 699 4,200 4, 800 C-13 ------- SUMMARY OF CUSTER COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 839 Growth factor 1.09 1.20 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 26 28.34 31.2 Percent miles above 250 ADT 1.2 1.4 1.6 Percent difference from base year .2 .4 Miles to be paved 1.7 3.4 Average ADT on miles to be paved 255 265 Daily VMT loss due to paving 433.5 901 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roa.ds) 21,407 22,900 24,800 Annual Particulate Emissions with paving (tons) Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 17,270 18,500 20,000 17,270 18,800 20,700 C-14 ------- SUMMARY OF FALLON COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 689 Growth factor 1.10 1.22 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 27 29.7 32.9 Percent miles above 250 ADT 1.4 1.6 1.8 Percent difference from base year 0.2 0.4 Miles to be paved 1.38 2.76 Average ADT on miles to be paved 255 265 Daily VMT loss due to paving 351.9 731.4 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 18, 666 20,200 22,000 Annual Particulate Emi.sion. with paving (tons) ' ' * Annual Particulate Emissions without paving (tons) 14, 856 16,400 18,100 C-15 ------- SUMMARY OF POWDER RIVER COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 814 Growth factor 1.16 1.36 County average ADT (unpaved roads) .20 23.2 27.2 Percent miles above 250 ADT 0.8 1.1 1.4 Percent difference from base year 0.3 0.6 Miles to be paved 2.4 4.9 Average ADT on miles to be paved 265 280 Daily VMT loss due to paving 636 1,372 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 16,460 18,500 21,000 Annual Particulate Emissions 13, 130 14,800 16 700 with paving (tons) ' Annual Particulate Emissions 13 130 15 300 17 800 without paving (tons) ' ' * C-16 ------- SUMMARY OF CARTER COUNTY UNPAVED ROAD EMISSION PROJECTION Parameter 1974 1980 1985 Total miles of unpaved roads 696 Growth factor 1.18 1.38 County average ADT (unpaved roads) 16 18.9 22.1 Percent miles above 250 ADT 0.65 0.8 1.0 Percent difference from base year 0.15 0.35 Miles to be paved 1.04 2.44 Average ADT on miles to be paved 260 270 Daily VMT loss due to paving 270.4 658.8 Daily VMT (for total unpaved roads) 11,405 13,200 15, 100 Annual Particulate Emissions g 6o? 9 900 11 400 with paving (tons) * Annuai Particulate Emissions 8 6o7 10,200 11,900 without paving (tons) ' C-17 ------- REFERENCES 1. Communication with Bud Richt. B & B Farm and Wholesale Supply Company, Hamilton, Montana. September 1975. 2. Communication with Carol Tompkins. Pioneer Concrete & Fuel, Incorporated, Butte, Montana. September 1975. 3. Communication with Divide Coal Company, Roundup, Montana. September 1975. 4. Guide for Compiling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory, Second Edition. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. Publication Number APTD-1135. December 1974. 5. The 1970 Census of Housing, Montana Detailed Housing Characteristics. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 1970. 6. Local Climatological Data, Monthly Summaries and Annual Summaries. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Cli- matic Center, Asheville, North Carolina. 1974. 7. Mineral Industry Surveys, Bituminous Coal and Lignite Distribution. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C. 1974. 8. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Supple- ments 1 through 5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. Pub- lication Number AP-42. April 1975. 9. Communication with W. P. Schmeckel. Western Energy Company, Butte, Montana. September 1975. 10. Mineral Industry Surveys, Sales of Fuel Oil and Kerosene in 1973. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C. 1974. 11. Montana Current Population Reports, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. Series P-26. 1974. 12. Montana County Business Patterns. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 1973. 13. National Emission Data System (NEDS), State of Montana Computer Listing. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. May 1975. 1 ------- 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Wyoming Area Source Emission Inventory. PEDCo-Environ- mental Specialists, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio. EPA Contract Number 68-02-1375. June 1975. The 1972 OBERS Projections, Regional Economic Activity in the United States, Series E Population. U.S. Water Resources Council, Washington, D.C. Volumes I and IV. April 1974. Population and Economic Activity in the United States and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. July 1972. Data provided by Carl R. Andersen, Manager, Department of Environmental Protection. The Montana Power Company, Butte, Montana. September 1975. Data provided by A. J. Mayer, Manager, Gas Distribution. Montana-Dakota Utilities Company, Bismarck, North Dakota. August 1975. Mineral Industry Surveys, Sales of Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Ethane. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C. 1973. Mineral Industry Surveys, Natural Gas Production and Consumption in 1973. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C. 1974. Communication with Clark Nielson. Montana Air Quality Bureau, Helena, Montana. September 1975. 1974 Fall Burning. U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Region 1, Missoula, Montana. January 1975. Communication with Carol Cameron. U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Missoula, Montana. May and July 1975. Communication with Ralph Hansen, Superintendent of Suppression Section. Montana Division of Forestry, Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, Missoula, Montana. October 1975. Communication with Ron Hendickson, Assistant Regional Coordinator. U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Missoula, Montana. October 1975. 2 ------- 26. County and City Data Book—A Statistical Abstract Supplement. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 1975. 27. Communication with Clark Nielson, Montana Air Quality Bureau, Helena, Montana. Data acquired from U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. May 1975. 28. Montana Agricultural Statistics, County Statistics 1972 and 1973. Montana Department of Agriculture and Statistical Reporting Service and U.S. Department of Agriculture. Volume XV. December 1974. 29. Montana Highway Functional Classification and Needs Study—1974 Update. Menasco-McGuinn Associates, Helena, Montana. June 1974. 30. Federal Aid Road Log, Montana. 1974. 31. Traffic Study for Billings and Missoula, Montana. Alan M. Voorhees and Associates, Denver, Colorado. June 1975. (Included as Appendix B of this report.) 32. Census of Agriculture, County Data. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 1969. 33. Communication with salesman. Heshion Motors, Incorpor- ated, Kansas City, Missouri. September 1975. 34. Communication with Bruce Tombs, Assistant Administrator, Transportation Division. Montana Department of Public Service Regulation, Helena, Montana. July 1975. 35. Annual Report to the Montana Public Service Commission. Burlington Northern Railroad, Incorporated, St. Paul, Minnesota. 1975. 36. Annual Report to the Montana Public Service Commission. Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Paul and Pacific Railroad (The Milwaukee Road), Chicago, Illinois. 1975. 37. Annual Report to the Montana Public Service Commission. Butte, Anaconda and Pacific Railroad, Anaconda, Montana. 1975. 38. Annual Report to the Montana Public Service Commission. Union Pacific Railroad Company, New York, New York. 1975. 39. Communication with Norm Koplin, Manager, Trains and Terminals. Burlington Northern Railroad, Billings, Montana. August 1975. 3 ------- 40. Communication with S. 0. Jones, Superintendent. Milwaukee Road, Deer Lodge, Montana. August 1975. 41. Communication with Howard Goodfellow, General Traffic Agent. Butte, Anaconda and Pacific Railroad, Butte, Montana. August 1975. 42. Personal communication with L. Kelly, Butte, Anaconda and Pacific Railroad and H. Goodfellow, Union Pacific Railroad. November 21, 1975. 43. Communication with Wayne Flaherty. Federal Aviation Administration, Helena, Montana. July 1975. 44. Communication with Dalton F. Sessions, Chief, Missoula Tower. Airport Traffic Control Tower, Missoula, Montana. July 1975. 45. Official Airline Guide, North American Edition. Reuben H. Donnelley, Oak Brook, Illinois. June 1975. 46. Communication with Airport Manager's Office. Billings Airport, Billings, Montana. May 1975. 47. Personal communication with Wayne Flaherty, Planning Director, Airport District Office. Federal Aviation Administration, Helena, Montana. November 1975. 48. Development of Emission Factors fot Fugitive Dust Sources. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. Publication Number EPA- 450/3-74-037. June 1974. 49. North Dakota Traffic Report, 1973. North Dakota State Highway Department, Planning and Research and U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Adminis- tration, Bismarck, North Dakota. 1974. 50. Investigation of Fugitive Dust Sources, Emissions, and Control for Attainment of Secondary Ambient Air Quality Standards—Colorado. Prepared by PEDCo-Environmental Specialists, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio for U.S. Environ- mental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. November 1973. 51. Buckman, Harry 0., Nyle C. Brady. The Nature and Properties of Soils. Seventh Edition. New York, Macmillan, 1974. 52. Fugitive Dust Emission Inventory. Yellowstone County Air Pollution Control Agency, Billings, Montana. May 1975. 4 ------- 53. Communication with Joan Good, Building Inspector's Office. City of Missoula, Missoula, Montana. November 1975. 54. Monthly Construction Reports—January through December, 1974. Montana Department of Highways, Construction Bureau, Helena, Montana. 1974. 55. Tentative Construction Program, Fiscal Years 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981. Montana Department of Highways, Helena, Montana. October 1975. 56. Communication with Francis U. Toombs, Assistant Admin- istrator, Maintenance Division. Montana Department of Highways. September 1975. 57. Particulate Area Source Emission Inventory for Nashville- Davidson County, Tennessee. PEDCo-Environmental Specialists, Inc., Cincinnati, Ohio. February 1975. 5 ------- TECHNICAL REPORT DATA (Please read Instructiont on the reverse before completing) 1. REPORT NO. 2. EPA-908/1-76-005 3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION»NO. 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Montana AQMA Area Source Emission Inventory 6. REPORT DATE December 1975 S. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION COOE 7. AUTHOR(S) S. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. 0. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS PEDCo - Environmental Specialists, Inc. Suite 13, Atkinson Sauare Cincinnati, Ohio 45246 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT MO. 11. CONTRACT/GRAMT NO. 68-02-1375 Task Order No. 19 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS U. S. Environmental Protection Aqency Region VIII 18(50 Lincoln Street Denver, Colorado 80203 13. TYPE OF REPORT ANO PERIOD COVERED Final 14. SPONSORING AGENCY COOE 1S. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES '16. ABSTRACT This report contains emission estimates for non point sources of air pollution 1n A0MA counties of the State of Montana. Estimates for particulate and sulfur oxide emissions are made for the base year (present), 1980 and 1985. Methodoloqles and data sources are presented. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS t. DESCRIPTORS b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS c. COSATI Field/Group Fuel Combustion Emissions Mobile Sources Stationary Sources Air Ouallty Maintenance Analysis 18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT Unlimited It. SECURITY 4xASfc fftllikmport)' Unclassified 2i.No.ofipAaes 166 30. SECURITY CLASS (TWtptgf) Unclassified |f»A rm U»l (9*73) ------- |