JACK FAU-84-315-1
EMPLOYMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DOMESTIC METHANOL FUEL PRODUCTION INDUSTRY
(FINAL REPORT)
Submitted to:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Mobile Sources
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105
JACK FAUCETT ASSOCIATES
5454 WISCONSIN AVENUE • SUITE 1155
CHEVY CHASE. MARYLAND 20815
(301i 657-8223
-------
EPA-420-R-85-108
JACK FAU-84-315-1
EMPLOYMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DOMESTIC METHANOL FUEL PRODUCTION INDUSTRY
(FINAL REPORT)
Submitted to:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Mobile Sources
Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105
¥
April 1985
JACK FAUCETT ASSOCIATES
5454 WISCONSIN AVENUE • SUITE t!55
CHEVV CHASE. MARYLAND 208t5
I30IJ 657-8223
-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY v
A. Summary of Methodology v
6. Summary of Results vii
C. Employment Estimates in Perspective x
D. Limitations of this Analysis xiv
I. INTRODUCTION 1
n. PROJECT OVERVIEW 3
A. Literature Review 3
B. Selection of Prototype Plant Design 3
C. Overview of Plant Construction and Operation Scenarios 4
D. Construction, Start-Up, and Operating Inputs (Excluding Coal) . . 4
E. Coal Inputs 15
F. Estimation of Direct Employment: Methodology 18
G. Estimation of Indirect Employment: Methodology 18
H. Estimation of Induced Employment: Methodology 20
III. DIRECT, INDIRECT, AND INDUCED EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS .... 24
A. Direct and Indirect Employment Supported by Plant
Construction 31
B. Direct and Indirect Employment Supported by Plant Operations
(Excluding Coal-Related Employment) 31
C. Indirect Employment in Coal Mining and its Supporting Industries
Due to Methanol Plant Operations 37
D. Total Induced Employment: The Effect of Plant Construction
and Operation on Personal Consumption Expenditures 48
E. Regional Employment Effects: A Qualitative Analysis 51
IV. METHANOL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT IN PERSPECTIVE 55
A. Methanol-Related Employment and the Nation's Labor Force ... 55
B. Methanol-Related Employment and Regional Considerations ... 55
C. Methanol Construction Employment Vs. Employment Effects
of Other Projects 57
D. Total Methanol-Supported Employment Vs. Total Employment
Supported By Similar Expenditures in Other Sectors:
1985 Through 2020 57
E. The Methanol Industry, Gasoline, and Imported Oil 62
APPENDIX A-l: COAL-TO-METHANOL PLANT DESIGN AND FEASIBILITY
STUDIES 66
APPENDIX A-2: DEVELOPMENT OF A SIX YEAR PLANT CONSTRUCTION
SCENARIO 67
APPENDIX A-3: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS INPUT-OUTPUT
SECTORING PLAN 69
i
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TABLE OF CONTENTS - (continued)
CHAPTER PAGE
APPENDIX A-4: DEVELOPMENT OF GOODS AND SERVICES INPUT DATA
FOR PLANT CONSTRUCTION, START-UP, AND
OPERATION, IN BLS SECTOR DETAIL 75
APPENDIX A-5: DEVELOPMENT OF INPUT DATA IN PRODUCERS'
PRICES 80
APPENDIX A-6: DEFLATION OF PRODUCERS' PRICES FROM
1981 TO 1972 DOLLARS 83
APPENDIX A-7: DEVELOPMENT OF DATA ON INPUTS OF COAL TO
PLANT OPERATION 85
APPENDIX A-8: ESTIMATION OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT FROM
1985 TO 2020 92
ii
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LIST OF EXHIBITS
EXHIBIT PAGE
E-l EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS SUMMARY viii
E-2 PROJECTED ANNUAL METHANOL-RELATED JOBS: SHARE OF
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 3d
E-3 DISCOUNTED TOTAL CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES
AND DISCOUNTED OIL IMPORT PAYMENT REDUCTIONS
FOR KEY TIME PERIODS (Billions of 1981 Dollars) xiii
H-l 30 PLANT CONSTRUCTION, START-UP, AND OPERATION
SCHEDULE 6
H-2 CONSTRUCTION BILL OF GOODS, BY BLS SECTOR
1985 - 1993 7
II-3 BILL OF GOODS FOR START-UP AND OPERATION, BY BLS
SECTOR (1989-1995) 11
H-4 TONS OF COAL CONSUMED PER YEAR (1986-1995) 16
H-5 VALUE OF COAL CONSUMED PER YEAR (1986-1995) 17
H-6 CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION WORK FORCE
REQUIREMENTS 19
H-7 AVERAGE ANNUAL PCE PER JOB IN 1972 DOLLARS 23
m-1 EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS SUMMARY 25
III-2 TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS
(1985-1995) 26
m-3 PROJECTED PERCENTAGE IMPORT PENETRATION BY BLS SECTOR
IN 1995 30
ni-4 INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (1985-1995) 32
m-5 INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT - 1989 36
ffl-6 INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF PLANT OPERATIONS
(1985-1995) 38
HI-7 SUMMARY OF INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT FROM OPERATIONS
FOR SELECTED INDUSTRIES - 1995 42
ni-8 COAL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT: EMPLOYMENT AT THE MINE
MOUTH, IN SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES, AND IN TRANSPORTATION
AND WHOLESALE TRADE (1985-1995) 43
II1-9 ANNUAL COAL-MINING EMPLOYMENT SUPPORTED BY A
DOMESTIC METHANOL INDUSTRY (1985-1995) 47
HI-10 COAL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT: EMPLOYMENT IN SUPPLIER
INDUSTRIES AND IN TRANSPORTATION AND WHOLESALE
TRADE-1995 49
iii
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50
53
54
56
58
59
61
63
65
79
87
88
LIST OF EXHIBITS - (continued)
INDUCED EMPLOYMENT: MULTIPLIERS AND PROJECTED
INDUCED EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT IN KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS IN 1990 AND 1995 . . .
KEY STATES BY SECTOR
PROJECTED ANNUAL METHANOL-RELATED JOBS: SHARE OF
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE .
PROJECTED ANNUAL METHANOL-RELATED JOBS: SHARE OF
PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT FOR KEY STATES (1985-1995) . . . .
METHANOL CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT VS. ESTIMATED
EMPLOYMENT PER BILLION DOLLARS (1981 Dollars) FOR
VARIOUS PUBLIC WORKES PROJECTS
COMPARISON OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT SUPPORTED BY THE
METHANOL INDUSTRY WITH TOTAL EMPLOYMENT SUPPORTED
BY OTHER SECTORS, SPENDING CONSTANT 1985-2D20
COMPARISON OF CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES WITH DOLLAR
VALUES OF DISPLACED OIL IMPORTS (Billions of Dollars)
(1985-1995)
COMPARISON OF DISCOUNTED TOTAL CONSTRUCTION EXPENDI-
TURES WITH DISCOUNTED TOTAL VALUE OF DISPLACED OIL
IMPORTS (Billions of 1981 Dollars) FOR KEY PERIODS
PROPORTION OF COSTS OF WAREHOUSE SPARE PARTS AND
MAINTENANCE MATERIALS ASSIGNED TO EACH BLS SECTOR . .
TONS OF COAL CONSUMED PER YEAR (1986-1995)
BILL OF GOODS, FOR COAL, BY BLS SECTOR (1986-1995)
iv
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report presents and examines estimates of the level of employment supported by
the development of a domestic methanol fuel production industry capable of producing
2.5 million barrels per day (BPD) of methanol from high-sulfur eastern and midwestern
coals by 1995. Three types of employment are considered. Direct employment is that
attributed immediately to either the construction or the operation of the methanol
plants. Indirect employment is due to the purchase of goods and services from different
sectors of the economy in support of plant construction and operation. Finally, induced
employment occurs as changes in output and employment result in changes in personal
income and increased consumption. Direct, indirect, and induced employment will
occur during all stages in the development of the industry.
The period considered in this report covers the years from 1985 to 1995, inclusive.
Annual employment estimates are calculated for a single scenario. It is assumed that
30 plants, each consuming 25,000 tons of coal per day to provide 85,000 BPD of
methanol, will be required to produce 2.5 million BPD in 1995. Six of these plants will
come on line in 1990, and six will be added each year from 1991 through 1994.
Construction of each plant will take six years, with the last year of construction
overlapping with the first year of full operation. Thus, construction of the first set of
six plants will begin in 1985, the second set in 1986, and so forth until 1989, when
construction of the fifth set will begin. Mining of coal for production of methanol at a
specific plant is assumed to begin four years before the plant is fully operational, so
that a stockpile of coal is available at the plant. This mining, however, is phased in
gradually over that period so that annual coal output does not equal the annual coal
requirement of the plant until it is fully operational. Finally, 1995 represents the
steady state level of activity, since all construction is completed in 1994 and all plants
are fully operational by 1995.
A. SUMMARY OF METHODOLOGY
The primary data required to estimate the direct, indirect, and induced employment
supported by a domestic methanol fuel production industry were derived from a detailed
coal-to-methanol plant feasibility study performed by Dames and Moore and the Nokota
Company for the U.S. Department of Energy. This study (final report - March 1983)
v
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examined the commercial viability of the construction and operation of a
coal-to-methanol plant using the Lurgi gasification and methanol synthesis processes.
A preliminary plant design and cost estimate prepared by Fluor Engineers and
Constructors, Inc., for Dames and Moore, and a socioeconomic assessment prepared by
Dames and Moore, were the most valuable portions of the feasibility study for this
analysis. Estimates of direct, per plant construction and operation employment were
derived from these analyses, as were construction, mining, and operation schedules.
Also developed from the Fluor report were per plant estimates of the dollar value of
the inputs, other than coal, into the construction and the operation of the plant.
The dollar values of the inputs were then organized into separate bills of goods for the
construction and operation of the plant and, where applicable, for one time startup
costs that typically occur during the year prior to full scale plant operation. A separate
bill of goods was also developed for the coal input into production. These bills of goods,
which are organized by economic sector, are the foundation for estimating indirect
employment using a standard Leontief interindustry economic model and a labor
demand model. The industry activity model, in combination with the primary inputs
estimates, is used to estimate changes in an industry's output due to changes in demand
for its product as a result of methanol plant construction and/or operation. When
coupled with a labor demand model, changes in demand are translated into estimates of
employment associated with that demand.
The models selected to estimate indirect employment were the Bureau of Labor
Statistics interindustry model and the Bureau of Labor Statistics labor demand model
contained in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic Growth Model System. Given
estimates of revenue impacts by supplier industry and a plant construction and
operating schedule, these models estimate indirect employment in the industries that
supply the methanol industry directly, and in the industries that provide goods and
services to those primary supplier industries.
Induced employment stems from the expenditure of disposable personal income for the
consumption of goods and services by income-earning individuals and their families.
These personal consumption expenditures (PCE) may originate from the direct and the
indirect employment supported by an industry, or from existing induced employment
supported by previous changes in PCE. Thus, total induced employment resulting from
vi
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a given initial change in PCE may be divided into several consecutive rounds of induced
employment, each round dependent on the level of PCE created by the previous round's
employment.
The initial round of induced employment in this study is generated by the personal
consumption expenditures of those individuals directly and indirectly employed by the
domestic methanol production industry. Given this basis, annual total induced employ-
ment was calculated in five steps. First,* the effect of the estimated annual levels of
direct and indirect employment on disposable income and on personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) was forecasted. Second, the change in PCE was distributed across
the projected PCE vector embodied in the BLS interindustry model according to the
proportions forecasted by the model. Third, the BLS interindustry model and the BLS
labor demand model were used to estimate the initial round of induced employment
resulting from the change in PCE. Fourth, the ratio of initial induced employment to
the sum of direct and indirect employment was used to estimate a total employment
multiplier. Fifth, the sum of direct and indirect employment was multiplied by this
multiplier to yield total employment. Induced employment was then calculated by
subtracting direct employment and indirect employment from this total employment
estimate.
B. SUMMARY OF RESULTS
The estimated levels of annual employment supported by the development of a 2.5
million BPD domestic methanol fuel production industry are presented in Exhibit E-l
for the period from 1985 through 1995. The exhibit divides employment into the major
phases of the industry's development —construction, operation (including startup), and
coal mining — as well as into direct, indirect, and induced employment.
Total employment supported by the industry grows from 107,921 in 1985 to a peak of
666,766 in 1989. It declines thereafter to a steady-state level of 379,050 in 1995.
Construction-related employment dominates the period from 1985 through 1990,
ranging from a high of 66.7 percent of total employment in 1985 (71,960 jobs) to 40.5
percent in 1990 (257,400 jobs). Induced employment becomes the major employment
factor after 1991, totaling 209,920 jobs, or 36.4 percent of total methanol-related
employment for the year. Induced employment continues to be the leading sector
through 1995.
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EXHIBIT E-l:
EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS SUMMARY
1985
19B6
1987
19B8
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Construction Employment
71
,960
155,790
210,412
280,961
328,372
257,400
173,971
118,939
48,635
900
0
Direct
21
,000
46,200
63,000
85,200
100,800
80,700
55,500
38,700
16,500
900
0
Indirect
50
,960
109,590
147,412
195,761
227,572
176,700
118,471
80,239
32,135
0
0
Operation Employment
0
2,700
9,600
16,500
47.0S2
66,800
83,552
96,081
108,221
97,639
96,593
Direct
0
2,700
9,600
16,500
24,900
34,500
41,400
44,100
46,800
48,000
48,000
Indirect
0
0
0
0
22,182
32,300
42,152
51,981
61,421
49,639
48,593
Coal Employment
0
5,709
16,902
33,603
56,308
84,206
109,230
125,073
134,639
138,111
135,381
Coal Mining
0
2,671
7,946
15,973
27,268
41,359
55,919
63,912
68,499
€9,886
67,688
Other Mine Mouth
0
287
838
1,637
2,663
3,875
4,860
5,551
5,930
6,012
5,802
Other Indirect
0
2,751
8,11B
15,993
26,377
38,972
48,451
55,610
60,210
62,213
61,891
Induced Employment
35
,961
83,361
122,384
174,970
235,004
227,129
209,920
200,430
176,478
146,600
147,076
Total Employment
107
,921
247,560
359,298
506,034
666,766
635,535
576,673
540,523
467,973
383,250
379,050
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Construction employment peaks at 328,372 jobs in 1989. This includes 100,800 direct
construction jobs (30.7 percent) and 227,572 indirect jobs (69.3 percent). It declines
eventually to no jobs in 1995, when all construction has ceased. It is interesting to note
that in each year except 1994, indirect construction employment is more than twice
direct construction employment.
Operation employment ranges from a low of 0 in 1985, when construction of the first
six plants is just beginning, to a high of 97,639 in 1994, when all 30 plants are fully
operational. Although full operation of the first six plants will not begin until 1990, it
is expected that some direct operation employment begins as early as 1986, when
people will be hired to begin training and to start the testing of the plants' systems.
Once operations begin consuming inputs in 1989, direct operating employment and
indirect operating employment are similar over the remainder of the period, and are
almost equal at steady state levels in 1995 (48,000 jobs and 48,593 jobs, respectively).
Employment related to coal mining grows continuously from 5,709 in 1986, when
stockpiling begins, to 138,111 in 1994, when all plants are fully operational. It declines
slightly in 1995, reflecting gains in productivity. Coal mining employment and other
employment at the mine mouth (i.e. transporters and marketers of coal) grow from
2,671 jobs and 287 jobs, respectively, in 1986 to 69,886 jobs and 6,012 jobs, respectively,
in 1994. Employment in industries that supply inputs to coal mining grow from 2,751 in
1986 to 62,213 in 1994. Employment again declines in these sectors in 1995 due to
productivity gains.
Induced employment totals 35,961 jobs in 1985, peaks at 235,004 jobs in 1989, and
declines to a steady-state level of 147,076 in 1995. The ratio of induced employment to
the sum of direct and indirect employment ranges from 0.50 in 1985 to 0.63 in 1995,
reflecting gains in real per capita personal consumption expenditures over the period.
Employment levels in 1995 represent the steady-state environment for this analysis.
Although continued gains in productivity will reduce direct and indirect employment
from these projected levels, the decreases will not be significant. Furthermore, gains
in real income among these workers after 1995 will lead to larger total employment
multipliers and possibly higher levels of induced employment. Thus, it is likely that
total steady-state employment associated with a 2.5 million BPD domestic methanol
production industry will range between 350,000 and 375,000 jobs after 1995.
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C. EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES IN PERSPECTIVE
The annual total employment estimates projected for a 2.5 million BPD domestic
methanol industry comprise less than one-half of one percent of the nation's civilian
labor force for all but two years between 1985 and 1995 (see Exhibit E-2). The
methanol-related share ranges from a low of less than one-tenth of one percent in 1985
to 0.54 percent in 1989, declining thereafter to a steady-state level of 0.29 percent in
1994 and 1995. The coal mining industry will experience the greatest absolute and
proportional employment effect of any BLS sector: 68,000 coal mining jobs will be
supported by the industry in 1995, over 20 percent of all coal mining employment
projected for 1995 by the BLS.
Given the existence of large high-sulfur coal reserves, large transportation fuel
demand, and technical support industries, it is likely that much of the employment
generated by a methanol fuel industry would be concentrated in the Midwest. If all of
these jobs were located in the Midwest, total methanol-related employment would equal
almost 1.5 percent of estimated total employment in 1995 for the states of
Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. The
industry's share of total employment in these states would range from 0.46 percent in
1985 to 2.74 percent in 1989.
Employment associated with the construction of the plants compares favorably with
that supported by the construction of public works projects such as dams, sewer lines,
public housing, and powerplants. The expenditure of $1 billion (1981 dollars) on the
construction of a methanol plant will provide 18,300 direct and indirect construction
jobs, while a similar expenditure on a typical public works project will create 17,800
construction jobs. The distribution of the jobs between direct and indirect employment,
however, differs significantly. Over 65 percent of the jobs supported by an average
public works project are direct jobs, while only 30 percent of methanol plant
construction employment is direct employment. This reflects the value and labor
content of the primary and intermediate products that are inputs into the construction
of a methanol plant.
The total amount of employment (direct, indirect, and induced with respect to
construction and operation) supported by a domestic fuel-methanol industry will equal
13,218,460 job-years between 1985 and 2020, given an expenditure of $445.4 billion on
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EXHIBIT E-2:
PROJECTED ANNUAL METHANOL-RELATED JOBS: SHARE OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Projected Civilian Labor
Force (000) 1 116,978 118,693 120,421 122,002 123,563 124,951 126,350 127,587 128,860 130,102 131,387
Projected Methanol-Related
Jobs (000) 108 248 359 506 667 636 577 541 468 383 379
Methanol-Related Jobs:
Share of Labor Force (%) 0.09 0.21 0.30 0.41 0.54 0.51 0.46 0.42 0.36 0.29 0.29
1U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 1983 for 1990 and 1995. Unpublished data from BLS for remaining years.
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the construction and operation of the 30 plants. Thus, 29,676 job-years of employment
are supported by every $1 billion expended in a domestic methanol industry. Compared
to estimates of total job creation over the same period for an identical level of
expenditure in several other sectors, a methanol industry would likely support more jobs
than defense purchases, an equal number of jobs compared to other industrial projects,
and fewer jobs compared to low wage, low overhead, public service employment
programs.
In addition to generating increased domestic employment, the development of a
domestic methanol production industry will result in the reduction of oil imports by the
United States, especially if the fuel is used for transportation purposes. For example,
30 plants producing a total of 2.5 million barrels per day of methanol would displace
approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline refined from imported oil in 1995.
This will result in a significant and sustained reduction in oil import payments. A
comparison of the present discounted value of the capital investment costs for 30
methanol plants with the present discounted value of the displaced gasoline refined
from imported oil (see Exhibit E-3) over the period from 1985 to 1995 shows that
methanol investment costs of $58.45 billion (1981 dollars) exceed oil import reductions
of $36.65 billion.1 Lower oil import payments will continue well past 1995, however. By
the year 2000, just 6 years after the last set of plants begins operation, the present
discounted value of the reduced oil import payments ($65.75 billion) exceeds the present
discounted value of the methanol plants capital investment. By 2020, the present
discounted value of the oil import reductions totals $106.34 billion, nearly $50 billion
more than the present discounted value of the capital investment.
This discussion is not meant to imply that the total cost of methanol fuel would
necessarily be less than that of gasoline to the vehicle consumer. A comparison of total
fuel costs would have to include additional costs associated with methanol production
such as coal and labor costs, and would have to project these costs and world oil prices
well into the future. Such a comparison is beyond the scope of this study. One concern
with development of a coal-to-methanol industry is the large initial capital investment.
The point of Exhibit E-3 is to show that although the capital investment required for
the construction of 30 methanol plants is high, the plants could ultimately improve the
domestic capital pool by reducing the export of larger quantities of U.S. dollars for
imported oil. If the capital which would be spent on imported oil were instead spent on
1 Assumes a discount rate of 10 percent and a price of $40 per barrel of gasoline.
xii
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EXHIBIT E-3:
DISCOUNTED TOTAL CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES
AND DISCOUNTED OIL IMPORT PAYMENT REDUCTIONS FOR
KEY TIME PERIODS (Billions of 1981 Dollars)1
Discounted Construction Discounted Value of
Period Expenditures Displaced Oil Imports
Through:
W.4&
2000
58.45
S5.75
2005
58.45
83.82
2010
58.45
95.04
2015
58.45
102.01
2020
58.45
106.34
"'Expressed in 1981 dollars discounted to 1984 from forecast year.
xiii
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domestic goods and services (such as coal and labor for methanol production) then
greater domestic investment and employment would result and our balance of payments
would be improved.
D. LIMITATIONS OF THIS ANALYSIS
The interpretation of the results of this analysis are limited by the following factors:
• The use of an interindustry model to estimate indirect and induced
employment produces results based on average relationships among eco-
nomic sectors. These average relationships may differ significantly from
marginal relationships that would more accurately reflect the effects of
increasing demand for particular goods and services.
• Demand for materials and services is assumed to be satisfied by U.S.
production; imports are not considered. This assumption leads to an
overstatement of U.S. employment that varies directly for each sector
with the importance of imports in that sector.
• All materials inputs are assumed to be produced, purchased, and consumed
in the same year. There is no distribution of the purchase of a given
year's consumption over time.
• It is assumed that no investment capital expended on developing the
methanol industry is diverted away from other productive enterprises.
Furthermore, the possibility of job loss in some sectors of the economy is
not considered. Thus, the results of the analysis can only be interpreted
as representing the employment supported by the industry, and not as the
marginal impact of the industry on total employment in the economy.
Furthermore, the analysis stops at the production of the methanol, and
does not consider employment associated with its distribution and use.
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CHAPTKK I:
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this study was to estimate the employment supported by the construc-
tion and operation of coal-to-methanol plants on a large scale. Three types of
employment impacts were considered: direct, indirect, and induced. Direct employ-
ment impacts are those immediately associated with the construction and operation of
the plants. Indirect employment impacts ore those associated with the purchase of
goods and services from various sectors of the economy in support of plant construction
and operation. Finally, induced employment impacts occur as changes in output and
employment lead to changes in personal income and increased consumption. Direct,
indirect, and induced employment impacts occur during both the construction and
operation stages in the development of a methanol fuel industry.
The coal-to-methanol scenario adopted reflects the following requirements:
1. 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) of methanol production capacity will be
added each year from 1990 through 1994.
2. The methanol feedstock will be high-sulfur coal from the east and the
midwest.
3. Ho investment capital expended on the methanol plants is diverted away
from other productive enterprises.
4. Employment impacts associated with the distribution and use of methanol
are not considered.
Other constraints on the analysis which must be considered when interpreting the
results include the following:
1. All demand for materials and services was assumed to be satisfied by U.S.
production; imports are not considered. Consequently, U.S. employment
impacts are overestimated. The degree of overestimation in a sector
varies directly in size with the importance of imports in that sector. The
1
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relationships between imports and total consumption for each sector are
listed in Chapter III, Exhibit III-3.
2. The estimates of direct employment associated with plant construction
and operation are full-time equivalent employees. The estimates of
indirect and induced employment are estimates of "number of jobs."
3. Use of an input-output model as the tool for estimating indirect and
induced employment, as in the current analysis, produces results based on
average relationships among sectors within the economy. Average
relationships may differ significantly from marginal relationships that
would more accurately reflect the effects of increasing demand for
particular goods and services.
4. It is assumed that all material inputs to methanol plant construction and
operation are produced and consumed in the same year.
The remainder of this report consists of a project overview (Chapter n) which describes
the methanol production scenario, the analysis methodology, and data development; an
assessment of employment (Chapter HI) which details the direct, indirect, and induced
employment effects of plant construction and operation, and an analysis of the
significance of the employment estimates (Chapter IV). An appendix documenting the
data development is also provided.
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CHAPTER n
PROJECT OVERVIEW
This chapter provides an overview of the key analytical components of this study.
Additional detail on many of these components is presented in the appendices,
A. LITERATURE REVIEW
A detailed review of technical literature on synthetic fuels production was undertaken
as the first step in the analysis. The purpose of this review was to identify cost and
employment data for synthetic fuels plant construction and operation data. Literature
reviewed included proposals submitted to the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corporation and
plant feasibility studies performed for the U.S. Department of Energy. A list of plant
studies considered is provided in Appendix A-l.
B. SELECTION OF PROTOTYPE PLANT DESIGN
The plant design selected was a coal-to-methanol plant feasibility study performed by
Dames and Moore and the Nokota Company under contract to the Department of
Energy. This well documented study offers a high degree of detail on plant construction
and operating employment, and on materials and services requirements.* In addition, the
Fluor Corporation, which performed the preliminary plant design study and cost
estimation for the D.O.E. project, provided detail beyond that published for use in the
current analysis.
The Dames and Moore synfuel plant uses a Lurgi Fixed-Bed Gasifier and Methanol
Synthesis process to produce 85,000 barrels per day (BPD) of methanol from 28,000 tons
per day of lignite. Adjustments were made to the plant design data to reflect the use
of bituminous coal instead of lignite. Adjustments were also made to compress the
feasibility study's construction schedule from seven years to six years. These
adjustments are described in the following sections on the development of
coal-to-methanol plant construction and operation scenarios.
^Demes and Moore/The Nokota Company, Dunn-Nokota Methanol Project. Prepared for
U.S. Department of Energy, Volumes I-vm, 1983.
3
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C. OVERVIEW OF PLANT CONSTRUCTION
AND OPERATION SCENARIOS
The plant construction and operation scenarios assume a total of 30 plants are
constructed over the 1985 to 1994 period, with construction of six plants beginning in
each year from 1985 to 1989. Construction is completed in six years. The last year of
construction is also a year of full operation. One-time start-up costs are incurred a
year prior to operation. For example, a plant whose construction began in 1985 would
be completed in 1990. Start-up costs would be incurred in 1989 and full operation would
begin in 1990.
This scenario differs from that described by the Dames and Moore study in that
construction takes place in six years instead of seven, in order to begin full production
in 1990. Reduction of the construction schedule by one year involved spreading the
small first year effort anticipated by Dames and Moore over the three subsequent years
of construction. The methodology used is documented in Appendix A-2.
D. CONSTRUCTION, START-UP, AND OPERATING INPUTS
(EXCLUDING COAL)
In order to estimate the indirect employment associated with the construction and
operation of 30 methanol plants, it is necessary to know the value of inputs into
construction and operation. The basis lor data on expenditures on goods and services
for plant construction, start-up, and operation was the Dames and Moore coal-to-
methanol feasibility study. The aggregate data provided in the Dames and Moore report
were disaggregated to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sector level using a
combination of:
1) data made available by the Fluor Corporation, which performed the plant
design study and cost estimation for Dames and Moore, and
2) additional data available through economic and business publications, and
developed through discussions with trade association personnel.
The BLS sectoring plan is included as Appendix A-3. The use of the BLS sectoring plan
was necessary since the BLS Economic Growth Model System was used to estimate
indirect employment supported by the methanol industry.
4
-------
Once the cost data in the Dames and Moore study were disaggregated to the BLS sector
level (see Appendix A-4), the costs were adjusted to the specifications of the BLS input-
output model used in this analysis to estimate indirect employment. Cost data, which
had been developed in purchasers' prices, were converted to producers' prices by
subtracting wholesale trade margins and transportation costs from the purchasers'
prices. The producers1 prices were then deflated from the 1981 constant dollars used in
the Dames and Moore study and throughout subsequent data development to 1972
constant dollars. The methodologies for the transitions from purchasers' to producers'
prices, and from 1981 to 1972 dollars, are described in Appendices A-5 and A-6,
respectively.
The final step was the development of a yearly schedule of expenditures for each plant,
and for the 30 plant scenario. Construction expenditures for goods and services were
assumed to occur over the six year plant construction period in approximately the same
proportions as employment in each year of construction, as shown:
Schedule of Expenditures on Construction
Goods and Services*
Percentage of Total
Construction Expenditures
Year on Goods and Services
1 21%
2 25%
3 17%
4 22%
5 15%
6 0%
100%
Full operations, and thus full operating costs, begin in the sixth year of construction and
continue through 1995. One-time start-up costs are incurred in the fifth year of
construction. This single plant construction and operation expenditure schedule was
then combined with the 30 plant construction and operation schedule to develop the 30
plant scenario for expenditures on goods and services (Exhibit n-1). The resulting bill of
goods (annual expenditures in 1972 dollars by BLS sector and in total) is provided in
Exhibit D-2 for construction and Exhibit n-3 for start-up and operation.
*The development of this schedule is detailed in Appendix A-2.
5
-------
EXHIBIT n-1:
30 PLANT CONSTRUCTION, START-UP, AND OPERATION SCHEDULE
^\YEAR
PLANTS^^\
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Plants 1-6
C
C
C
C
C
s
*
c
0
0
0
0
0
0
Plants 7-12
C
C
C
C
c
s
*
c
0
0
0
0
O
Plants 13-18
C
C
c
c
c
s
*
c
0
0
0
0
Plants 19-24
C
C
c
c
c
s
#
c
0
0
0
Plants 25-30
C
c
c
c
c
s
*
c
0
0
Key: C = Construction
S = Start-Up
O = Operation
*
Note: There are no inputs of goods and services associated with the last year of plant construction.
-------
1
2
5
4
5
I
7
•
*
II
11
*2
13
1%
IS
H
17
IB
If
21
21
22
23
24
25
2*
27
28
29
3*
31
32
33
34
35
3*
37
3S
»
41
41
42
43
44
45
4i
47
4B
EXHIBIT n-2;
CONSTRUCTION BILL OF GOODS, BY BLS SECTOR - 1985-1993
(thousands of 1972 dollars, producers' prices)
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
4171
3574
7524
>851
If
23
2381
3212
5178
t.l
• .I
I.I
l.l
1.0
1.1
l.l
• .I
l.l
1.0
1.1
l.l
*9*21.2
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
• .I
• .I
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
184. »
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
l.l
4MI&.2
l.l
l.l
l.l
4779
3275
279*
1915
-------
EXHIBIT n-2;
CONSTRUCTION BILL OF GOODS, BY BLS SECTOR — (Continued)
00
BLS
SECTOR
1985
1986
50
0.0
I.i
51
0.0
0.0
52
0.0
0.0
33
2817.3
1149.3
34
23.9
32.4
35
t.l
1.0
56
0.0
0.0
57
0.0
0.0
38
0.0
0.0
39
1.0
0.8
40
0.0
1.4
«1
31981.1
71051.4
42
1.0
0.0
43
1.0
0.0
44
7400.3
16648.3
45
18925.2
41455.2
44
6824.7
14953.7
67
31.9
49.0
48
0.0
0.0
49
13330.8
29210.8
70
0.0
0.0
71
0.0
0.0
72
16459.4
34033.9
73
0.0
0.0
74
0.0
0.0
75
4874.2
10481.2
74
81740.0
179849.3
77
0.0
0.0
78
0.0
0.0
79
0.0
0.0
84
609.8
1333.8
81
0.0
0.1
82
0.0
0.1
83
311136.8
481537.8
84
0.0
0.1
83
0.0
0.1
86
0.8
0.1
87
0.0
0.1
88
11309.8
24773.8
89
0.0
0.1
90
1.0
0.1
91
28442.0
62381.3
92
0.0
0.1
93
0.8
0.1
94
0.0
I.I
95
0.0
I.I
96
1.0
I.I
97
0.0
0.1
98
0.0
0.1
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
0.0
1.0
8421.8
11362.8
13348.1
11561.7
7218.7
4944.2
71.8
94.9
114.1
90. 1
61.6
42.2
0.0
0.0
I.I
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
93*40.2
129443.1
132286.0
121303.9
82234.4
34345.8
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
22801.0
30743.2
3619Z.I
28591.7
19343.7
13391.1
56773.6
76682.0
90121.0
71194.8
48664.8
33344.4
20480.0
27631.8
32508.0
23681.3
17534.3
12028.0
94.5
127.3
1S0.0
118.5
81.0
35.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
I.I
8.0
0.0
39992.4
33958.0
43481.0
31149.2
34279.2
23487.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
I.I
0.0
0.0
49378.1
66621.3
78378.0
61918.6
42324.1
28999.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
0.0
0.0
14428.6
0.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
0.1
19737.0
23220.0
18343.8
12338.8
8591.4
245219.9
330832.3
389238.0
307498.0
210188.5
144018.1
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
1829.5
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
2468.4
2904.0
2294.2
1348.2
1074.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
933411.3
0.0
t.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
1259343.4
1481404.0
1170447.2
881046.2
548193.5
4.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
33929.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
43777.4
53856.0
42546.2
29182.2
19926.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
83325.9
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
I.I
115122.3
135438.0
104996.0
73136.5
30112.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
t.l
0.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
t.t
0.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
t.l
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I.I
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.0
I.I
1993
1.0
f .1
1.1
IMS.I
17.1
«.•
1.0
t.l
1.0
1.1
I.I
2284Z.9
I.I
I.I
3428.8
13518.1
4871.2
22.5
I.I
9322.0
l.l
I.I
11754.7
i.a
i.i
3483.0
38383.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
433.4
1.0
1.0
222240.4
1.1
1.8
1.0
0.0
8078.4
0.0
0.0
20313.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-------
99
10«
til
t02
IDS
104
1(5
196
117
1(8
1(9
11*
111
112
113
114
113
tit
117
tts
tt»
120
til
122
123
12*
125
126
127
128
129
139
151
132
133
13*
135
136
137
138
139
149
1*1
142
1*3
1**
1*5
14*
1*7
EXHIBIT n-2;
CONSTRUCTION BILL OF GOODS, BY BLS SECTOR - (Continued)
1985
1986
1.9
0.9
9.9
1.0
0.0
(.0
0.0
0.9
39647.2
86846.2
(.9
(.0
9.9
(.0
(.9
«.o
0.9
o.o
9.0
1.0
9.9
1.9
9.9
1.9
4983.3
19915.8
9.9
0.0
17(49.2
39998.2
1247.4
2732.4
255.8
560.3
6.3
13.8
9.9
0.0
0.9
0.0
9.9
0.9
9.9
0.0
9.9
0.9
9.9
9.9
•t«03.7
133846.2
1224.7
2682.7
1941.7
4253.2
0.9
9.9
9.9
0.9
0.9
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.0
4939.6
8848.6
9.9
0.0
9.9
9.9
119239.9
241477.9
9.9
9.0
1813.1
3971.6
2389.9
5233.9
0.9
(.9
0.9
(.9
0.9
(.9
(.9
(.9
(.9
(.9
0.9
1.9
0.9
(.9
9.9
0.9
0.9
(.9
9.9
9.9
1987
9.9
(.9
9.0
6.0
118941.5
9.0
0.9
0.0
6.9
9.0
9.9
9.9
14949.9
9.9
53547.5
3742.2
767.3
18.9
9.0
0.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.9
1833t1.1
3*74.2
5825.9
9.0
9.9
9.0
9.9
0.0
12118.7
0.9
9.9
339719.8
9.9
5*39.*
7166.9
9.9
9.9
0.9
9.9
(.9
9.9
9.9
9. (
9.9
(.(
1988
0.0
(.0
0.0
0.0
1*0*76.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.0
9.0
0.0
0.0
20170.5
0.9
722*6.6
50*9.0
1035.3
25.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2*732*.5
4957.2
7859.1
0.9
0.9
9.0
9.0
9.0
t*350.6
0.0
0.0
**6209.2
9.9
7338.9
9669.6
9.1
(.9
0.0
0.0
9.9
9.0
1.0
(.0
9.9
9.0
1989
18879
2373
8*99
59*
121
3
29097
5832
92*
1923
52*952
863
1137
1990
1491
187
671
*6
9
22986
*6
73
151
*1*7
(8
898
1991
1019
1281
*589
32
6
1571
31*1
*992
193
283*
46
61
-------
EXHIBIT H-2:
CONSTRUCTION BILL OF GOODS, BY BLS SECTOR - (Continued)
BLS
SECTOR
1985
1986
19S7
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
HI
1«»
IS*
131
132
153
15«
135
13*
sum
•12352.2
177MM.Z
i*3T»l.7
UUI1Z.4
i.l
3199911.S
KB
14312A7.3
Sft«231.t
-------
EXHIBIT n-3;
BILL OF GOODS FOR START-UP AND OPERATION. BY BLS SECTOR
1989 - 1995
(thousands of 1972 dollars, producers' prices)
BLS
SECTOR 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
1 0.0
2 0.0
3 0.0
4 0.0
5 0.0
6 0.0
7 0.0
8 0.0
9 0.0
10 1116.0
11 0.0
12 0.0
13 9252.0
14 0.0
15 0.0
16 0.0
17 0.0
18 0.0
19 0.0
20 0.0
21 0.0
22 0.0
23 0.0
24 0.0
25 0.0
26 0.0
27 0.0
28 0.0
29 0.0
30 0.0
31 0.0
32 0.0
33 0.0
34 0.0
35 0.0
36 0.0
37 0.0
38 0.0
39 0.0
40 13140.0
41 0.0
42 0.0
43 0.0
44 0.0
45 0.0
46 42486.0
47 366.0
4* 498.0
49 510.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1824.0
2532.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23574.0
37896.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13608.0
14076.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
62916.0
83346.0
834.0
1302.0
1326.0
2154.0
1350.0
2190.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3240.0
3948.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
52218.0
66540.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14544.0
15012.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
103776.0
124206.0
1770.0
2238.0
2982.0
3810.0
3030.0
3870.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3540.0
3540.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
71610.0
71610.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2340.0
2340.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
102150.0
102150.0
2340.0
2340.0
4140.0
4140.0
4200.0
4200.0
-------
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
0
0
0
2190
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
62790
0
0
6690
17250
6180
0
0.
12510,
0.
0,
24540.
0.
0.
4560.
75630.
0.
0.
0.
10440.
0.
0.
S8180.
0.
0.
0.
0.
10440.
0.
0.
>6460.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
EXHIBIT H-3;
BILL OF GOODS FOR START-UP AND OPERATION, BY BLS SECTOR — (Continued)
1989
0.0
0.0
0.0
804.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15006.0
0.0
0.0
2430.0
6276.0
2256.0
0.0
0.0
4548.0
0.0
0.0
<940.0
0.0
0.0
1656.0
27528.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
55584.0
0.0
0.0
104922.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3798.0
0.0
0.0
9636.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1990
0.0
0.0
0.0
1242.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
27564.0
0.0
0.0
3768.0
9726.0
3492.0
0.0
0.0
7050.0
0.0
0.0
13848.0
0.0
0.0
2568.0
42654.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
57672.0
0.0
0.0
162558.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5886.0
0.0
0.0
14928.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1991
0.0
0.0
0.0
1680.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
40122.0
0.0
0.0
5106.0
13176.0
4728.0
0.0
0.0
9552.0
0.0
0.0
18756.0
0.0
0.0
3480.0
57780.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
59760.0
0.0
0.0
220194.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7974.0
0.0
0.0
20220.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1992
0.0
0.0
0.0
2118.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
52680.0
0.0
0.0
6444.0
16626.0
5964.0
0.0
0.0
12054.0
0.0
0.0
23664.0
0.0
0.0
4392.0
72906.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
61848.0
0.0
0.0
277830.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10062.0
0.0
0.0
25512.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1993
0.0
0.0
0.0
2556.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
65238.0
0.0
0.0
7782.0
20076.0
7200.0
0.0
0.0
14556.0
0.0
0.0
28572.0
0.0
0.0
5304.0
88032.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
63936.0
0.0
0.0
335466.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12150.0
0.0
0.0
30804.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1994
0.0
0.0
0.0
2190.0
a.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
62790.0
0.0
0.0
6690.0
17250.0
6180.0
0.0
0.0
12510.0
0.0
0.0
24540.0
0.0
0.0
4560.0
75630.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10440.0
0.0
0.0
288180.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10440.0
0.0
0.0
26460.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-------
EXHIBIT n-3;
BILL OF GOODS FOR START-UP AND OPERATION, BY BLS SECTOR — (Continued)
BLS
SCTOR
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
99
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
100
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
to 1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
102
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
103
21162.0
28764.0
36366.0
43968.0
51570.0
38010.0
38010.0
104
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
105
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
106
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
107
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
108
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
109
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
110
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
111
5268.0
8970.0
12672.0
16374.0
20076.0
18510.0
18510.0
112
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
113
10854.0
19704.0
28554.0
37404.0
46254.0
44250.0
44250.0
114
1032.0
1998.0
2964.0
3930.0
4896.0
4830.0
4830.0
115
114.0
162.0
210.0
258.0
306.0
240.0
240.0
116
24.0
36.0
48.0
60.0
72.0
60.0
60.0
117
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
118
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
119
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
120
6744.0
18210.0
29676.0
41142.0
52608.0
57330.0
57330.0
121
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
122
708.0
3540.0
6372.0
9204.0
12036.0
14160.0
14160.0
123
35568.0
50448.0
65328.0
80208.0
95088.0
74400.0
74400.0
124
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
125
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
126
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
127
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
128
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
129
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
130
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
131
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
132
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
133
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
134
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
135
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
136
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
138
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
139
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
140
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
141
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
142
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
143
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
144
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
145
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
146
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
147
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-------
EXHIBIT E-3:
BILL OF GOODS FOR START-UP AND OPERATION, BY BLS SECTOR — (Continued)
BLS
SECTOR 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
148 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
149 0.S 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
150 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
151 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
152 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
153 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
154 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
155 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
156 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SUMS 392226.0 590220.0 788214.0 986208.0 1184202.0 989970.0 989970.0
-------
E. COAL INPUTS
In order to estimate the employment associated with the mining of coal for the 30
methanol plants, it is necessary to estimate the amount of coal required to produce the
methanol output. Coal-to-methanol feasibility and design studies assume coal inputs of
from 20,000 tons to 30,000 tons per day to produce 85,000 barrels per day of methanol,
depending on the energy content of the coal. The Lurgi Fixed-Bed Gasifier and
Methanol Synthesis process proposed by Dames and Moore uses 28,000 tons of lignite
per day (not including coal used to produce electricity at the plant). Plant studies by
Jack Faucett Associates and Battelle Columbus Laboratories for NASA using the
Texaco-ICI process indicated that 20,000 tons of bituminous coal would be required per
day to produce 85,000 barrels of methanol (again not including coal for electricity).*
An average consumption of 25,000 tons of coal per day was assumed for the current
study. This figure includes the high-sulfur bituminous coal consumed in methanol
synthesis as well as the coal used to generate electricity for the plant. Although plant
operation does not begin until 1990, demand for coal begins in 1986, the second year of
construction. This coal is assumed to be stockpiled for future use, with demand growing
over the construction period at the rates shown below:
Demand for Coal
Percentage of Full
Year Operating Demand
1 0%
2 20%
3 40%
4 60%
5 80%
Remaining Years
To 1995 100%
Schedules of coal demand, in tons and in dollar value, are provided in Exhibits n-4 and
H-5, respectively. Coal data development is documented in Appendix A-7, as is the
development of the bill of goods necessary to estimate coal related employment using
the BLS Economic Growth Model System.
Weinblatt, Herbert and Michael F. Lawrence, Jack Faucett Associates; and David
Jenkins, Battelle Columbus Laboratories. Energy and Precious Fuels Requirements of
Fuel Alcohol Production. Prepared for the National Aeronautics and Space Admini-
stration, December 1982.
15
-------
EXHIBIT 0-4:
TONS OF COAL CONSUMED PER YEAR
1986-1995
(Millions of Tons)
^\YEAR
PLANTS^"^
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Plants 1-6
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 7-12
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 13-18
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 19-24
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 25-30
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
Total
10.95
32.85
65.70
109.50
164.25
208.05
240.90
262.80
273.75
273.75
-------
EXHIBIT H-5;
VALUE OF COAL CONSUMED PER YEAR
13S6 - 1SS5
(Producer's Prices)
Value
Year (thousands of 1972 dollars)
1986 $ 83,877
1987 $ 251,669
1938 $ 503,262
1989 $ 838,770
1990 $1,258,155
1991 $1,593,633
1992 $1,845,294
1993 $2,013,048
1994 $2,096,925
1995 $2,096,925
17
-------
F. ESTIMATION OF DIRECT EMPLOYMENT: METHODOLOGY
Estimates of direct, per plant annual construction and operation employment were
derived from similar data presented in the Dames and Moore feasibility study. Exhibit
II-6 presents the annual construction and operation employment schedules anticipated
by Dames and Moore; and the annual construction and operation employment schedules
derived from them for this analysis.
As shown in Exhibit n-6, the projected operation employment schedules are identical,
except that it is assumed that some operation employment begins during the second
year of construction rather than in the third.1 This is because the construction
schedule was compressed to six years from seven years for purposes of this analysis.
The compression of the construction schedule also explains the differences between the
Dames and Moore construction employment schedule and the schedule used in this
study. Since the construction schedule was compressed from seven years to six years,
the small first year effort anticipated by Dames and Moore was spread over the three
subsequent years of construction. Thus, the projected construction employment
schedule approximates that assumed by Dames and Moore for years 2 through 7, with
the exception that additional employment is anticipated in the first three years to
offset the effort lost by eliminating the 557 jobs originally projected for year 1.
Given these per plant estimates and a construction and operation schedule, total direct
construction employment and total direct operation employment may be determined for
each year in the period from 1985 through 1995.
G. ESTIMATION OF INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT: METHODOLOGY
The bills of goods developed above are the foundation for estimating indirect employ-
ment using a standard Leontief interindustry economic model and a labor demand
model. The industry activity model, in combination with the estimates of the primary
inputs for construction, start-up, and operation, is used to estimate changes in an
industry's output due to changes in demand for its product resulting from the
construction or the operation of a methanol plant. When coupled with a labor demand
model, these changes in demand are translated into estimates of employment associated
with that demand.
*Some operation employment will occur prior to full operation since employees must be
trained and equipment tested.
18
-------
EXHIBIT n-6:
CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION WORK FORCE REQUIREMENTS
YEAR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 and beyond
CONSTRUCTION
Dames and
Moore
This
Analysis
557
3,500
3,186
4,200
4,012
2,800
2,692
3,700
3,643
2,600
2,629
150
137
0
0
0
OPERATION
Dames and This
Moore Analysis
0
0
450
424
1,150
1,145
1,150
1,145
1,400
1,400
1,600
1,616
1,600
1,616
1,600
Source of Dames and Moore Data: Dunn-Nokota Methanol Project, Dunn County, North Dakota, Vol.
VH, p. 5-75. 1983.
-------
The models selected to estimate indirect employment were the interindustry model and
the Bureau of Labor Statistics labor demand model contained in the Bureau of Labor
Statistics' Economic Growth Model System. Given estimates of revenue impacts by
supplier industry and a plant construction and operating schedule, these models
estimate indirect employment in the industries that supply the methanol industry
directly, and in the industries that provide goods and services to those primary supplier
industries.1
H. ESTIMATION OF INDUCED EMPLOYMENT: METHODOLOGY
Induced employment stems from the expenditure of disposable personal income on the
consumption of goods and services by income-earning individuals and their families.
These personal consumption expenditures (PCE) may originate from the direct and the
indirect employment supported by an industry, or from existing induced employment
supported by previous changes in PCE. Thus, total induced employment resulting from
a given initial change in PCE may be divided into several consecutive rounds of induced
employment, each round dependent on the level of PCE created by the previous round's
employment.
Assuming that PCE per job in a given year is constant, and that total PCE is distributed
in constant proportions over all consumer goods during each round, the following
equation is used to calculate the level of induced employment resulting from an initial
change in PCE associated with changes in direct and indirect employment:
(1) Total Induced Employment = x N j -N
where
R = the ratio of the initial round of induced employment to the sum of
direct and indirect employment; and
N = the sum of direct and indirect employment.
Complete documentation of the models used may be found in BLS Economic Growth
Model System Used for Projections to 1990. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, April 1982. Bulletin 2112.
20
-------
The first term in the brackets in equation (1) is called the total employment multiplier,
since multiplying it by the sum of direct and indirect employment yields the total of
direct, indirect, and induced employment.
The initial round of induced employment in this study is generated by the personal
consumption expenditures of those individuals directly and indirectly employed by the
domestic methanol production industry. Given this basis, annual total induced employ-
ment was calculated in five steps. First, the effect of the estimated annual levels of
direct and indirect employment on disposable income and on personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) was forecasted. Second, the change in PCE was distributed across
the projected PCE vector embodied in the BLS interindustry model according to the
proportions forecasted by the model. Third, the BLS interindustry model and the BLS
labor demand model were used to estimate the initial round of induced employment
resulting from the change in PCE. Fourth, the ratio of initial induced employment to
the sum of direct and indirect employment was used to estimate a total employment
multiplier. Fifth, the sum of direct and indirect employment was multiplied by this
multiplier to yield total employment. Induced employment was then calculated by
subtracting direct employment and indirect employment from this total employment
estimate.
In order to project the change in PCE resulting from the estimated levels of direct and
indirect employment, it was necessary to estimate expected PCE per job, in 1972
dollars, for each year from 1985 through 1995. The following method was used to
accomplish this:
• Average annual earnings of $9,038 for October 1983 (in 1977 dollars) were
assumed to grow at a real rate of 2.5 percent through 1995, yielding
projections of average annual earnings for each year from 1985 through
1995.1
2
• These projections, in 1977 dollars, were deflated to 1972 dollars.
Employment and Earnings. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
December 1983. Table C-4.
2Ibid., Table C-l.
21
-------
• A historic average ratio of PCE to personal income was calculated and
applied to the average annual earnings estimate to calculate average PCE
per job (ratio = .77).1
These projections are shown in Exhibit n-7.
^Survey of Current Business. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, July and October, 1983. Table 2-1.
22
-------
EXHIBIT n-7:
AVERAGE ANNUAL PCE PER JOB IN 1972 DOLLARS
YEAR
Average Annual Earnings
PCE
1985
$6,878
$5,296
1986
$7,050
$5,429
1987
$7,226
$5,564
1988
$7,407
$5,703
1989
$7,592
$5,846
1990
$7,782
$5,992
1991
$7,976
$6,142
1992
$8,176
$6,296
1993
$8,380
$6,453
1994
$8,590
$6,614
1995
$8,805
$6,780
23
-------
CHAPTER ni:
DIRECT, INDIRECT, AND INDUCED EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS
Development of a coal-to-methanol industry will affect employment in three ways:
1) directly, through plant construction and operation;
2) indirectly, through increased demand for goods and services to be used in
plant construction and operation; and
3) through increased personal income expenditures caused by the initial
expansion in employment {induced employment).
The employment supported by the construction and operation of 30 coal-to-methanol
plants is summarized in Exhibit IO-l. The first year of plant construction will create an
estimated 108,000 jobs. As the construction of additional plants begins, and as coal
begins to be stockpiled, employment climbs steadily to a peak of 667,000 in 1989. After
1989, employment decreases as construction activities decline. In 1995, all plants are
fully operational and employment reaches a steady-state impact of 379,000 jobs.
Further detail on direct and indirect employment is provided by Exhibit m-2f which lists
employment by BLS sector and by year (excluding induced employment).
When interpreting the projected employment data, it is important to note that one
assumption of the analysis was that all demand for plant construction and operation
goods and services would be satisfied by domestic producers. To the extent that
demand is satisfied by imports, domestic employment will be smaller. Forecasts of the
amount of total U.S. consumption that is expected to be represented by imports in 1995,
by BLS sector, are presented in Exhibit in-3. The forecasts were made by the BLS
Economic Growth Model System for the total U.S. economy. While the relationships
between imports and U.S. consumption reported do not necessarily apply to the goods
and services demanded directly and indirectly by the coal-to-methanol plants, the data
are a useful aid to the interpretation of the employment data presented in this chapter.
Details on the direct and indirect employment supported by plant construction, on the
direct and indirect employment supported by plant operation (excluding those related to
24
-------
KAHlHiT 111—1;
EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS SUMMARY
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Construction Employment
71,960
155,790
210,412
280,961
328,372
257,400
173,971
118,939
48,635
900
0
Direct
21,000
46,200
63,000
85,200
100,800
80,700
55,500
38,700
16,500
900
0
Indirect
50,960
109,590
147,412
195,761
227,572
176,700
118,471
80,239
32,135
0
0
Operation Employment
0
2,700
9,600
16,500
47,082
66,800
83,552
96,081
108,221
97,639
96,593
Direct
0
2,700
9,600
16,500
24,900
34,500
41,400
44,100
46,800
48,000
48,000
Indirect
0
0
0
0
22,182
32,300
42,152
51,981
61,421
49,639
48,593
Coal Employment
0
5,709
16,902
33,603
56,308
84,206
109,230
125,073
134,639
138,111
135,381
Coal Mining
0
2,671
7,946
15,973
27,268
41,359
55,919
63,912
68,499
69,886
67,688
Other Mine Mouth
0
287
838
1,637
2,663
3,875
4,860
5,551
5,930
6,012
5,802
Other Indirect
0
2,751
8,118
15,993
26,377
38,972
48,451
55,610
60,210
62,213
61,891
Induced Employment
35,961
83,361
122,384
174,970
235,004
227,129
209,920
200,430
176,478
146,600
147,076
Total Employment
107,921
247,560
359,298
506,034
666,766
635,535
576,673
540,523
467,973
383,250
379,050
-------
EXHIBIT ni-2:
TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS
(1985 - 1995)
.YEAR
B1
SECTOR
^1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
i
14.5
32.3
45.2
62.0
81.2
74.4
64.4
58.6
49.0
37.1
36.5
2
24.8
55.2
77.2
106.0
139.2
128.1
111.3
101.7
85.6
65.1
64.0
3
3.3
7.6
11.2
15.9
21.7
21.7
20.6
20.1
18.5
15.8
15.5
4
22.8
50.9
71.5
98.5
f 3 <. f
122.8
109. 1
101.8
88.2
69.2
68. 1
5
49.3
112.8
162.5
228.3
307.3
300.1
278.4
268.0
241.6
201.9
198.8
6
21.0
54.0
85.9
127.0
176.6
189.7
188.8
203.5
210.0
206.6
220.4
7
75.8
169.7
240.3
335.7
453.6
436.3
389.2
382.6
348.8
291.0
292.2
8
87.7
191.9
267.5
372.6
499.9
450.9
388.4
335.1
257.1
168.1
157.5
9
43.3
92.1
124.5
169.1
221.6
196.2
182.3
164.9
131.9
89.6
88.3
10
99.4
213.6
287.9
381.4
555.4
521.4
471.5
465.0
435.6
329.4
321.9
11
159.5
3013.9
8412.4
16605.8
28142.7
42172.3
56678.8
64619.4
69112.5
70345.0
68132.6
12
155.7
367.0
539.3
760.7
1100.3
1114.8
1083.7
1139.8
1144.1
1020.5
1068.1
13
493.7
1038.3
1371.9
1797.7
2276.5
2078.9
1801.8
1684.6
1471.1
1204.3
1118.8
14
28.2
62.7
87.7
120.1
189.5
190.5
188.7
192.3
187.0
146.5
142.5
15
466.7
1112.9
1678.7
2482.5
3552.6
3814.6
3848.3
3978.0
3867.9
3498.9
3471.2
16
8.2
18.0
24.8
33.8
43.4
38.5
32.0
27.8
21.4
14.7
14.1
17
0.8
1.5
2.4
4.6
8.8
10.7
11.5
9.4
6.7
4.1
3.7
18
19.3
43.2
60.8
83.8
110.1
100.0
86.5
80.0
67.9
51.5
50.9
19
5.1
11.0
15.1
20.5
26.2
23.2
20.1
17.9
14.5
10.5
9.9
to 20
9.9
22.4
31.9
44.3
58.4
53.3
45.8
42.0
35.3
26.7
26.1
en 21
6.2
13.9
19.8
27.5
38.0
36. t
32.5
31.1
27.9
21,9
21.3
22
8.2
18.2
25.6
35.3
45.9
41.6
35.7
31.7
25.6
18.5
17.4
23
1.2
2.7
3.9
5.5
7.5
7.1
6.5
6.1
5.3
3.9
3.8
24
2.6
5.9
8.4
11.7
15.6
14.5
12.8
11.7
9.7
7.2
6.9
25
5.7
12.4
17.0
23.1
30.0
26.9
22.6
20.2
16.4
11.9
11.2
26
4.4
9.7
13.4
18.3
24.1
22.3
19.7
17.8
14.6
10.8
10.3
27
7.1
16.1
23.2
32.7
44.7
43.0
39.7
38.2
34.0
27.2
26.8
28
1.6
3.6
5.1
7.0
9.2
8.4
7.3
6.6
5.5
4.0
3.8
29
59.1
137.5
202. t
286.4
382.5
370.2
356. 1
351.3
325.6
278.3
268.9
30
1.1
2.6
3.7
5.2
6.8
6.1
5.3
5.2
4.6
3.8
3.6
31
58.9
131.7
184.3
253.0
332.2
296.4
252.4
218.3
169.5
113.4
107.2
32
8.9
20.0
28.3
39. 1
51.5
47.7
44.1
42.2
37.3
29.8
29.0
33
38.1
88.5
129.1
182.5
244.4
236.0
223.7
217.6
198. 1
166.6
162.7
34
21.7
49.1
69.4
96.1
130.4
121.3
108.3
99.0
83.5
61.4
59.8
35
50.5
125.7
196.6
291.9
408.2
443. 1
449.2
460.2
446.5
407.6
389.5
36
78.8
173.4
240.9
328.6
436.5
384.8
320.7
292.4
243.3
168.5
163.9
37
81.8
182.9
256.8
353.7
484.7
441.2
382.9
346.4
288.4
198.6
191.9
38-
5.6
12.6
18.0
25.0
32.7
28.1
21.6
19.4
15.6
10.3
10.5
39
6.9
15.4
21.4
29.3
45.7
41.4
37.0
33.4
27.9
14.5
14.0
40
12.7
28.2
39.5
54.2
533.7
528.9
521.4
532.2
538.4
101.5
99.7
41
202.5
454.8
641.9
887.6
1168.3
1088.9
970.4
906.2
781.8
618.3
600.2
42
109.9
240.2
329.3
443.5
571.6
497.9
415.2
359.9
278.6
f84.0
174.2
43
141.7
319.9
453.7
633.0
851.0
808.2
737.8
694.8
600.4
471.8
464.6
44
54.1
123.2
175.7
246.1
329.0
310.2
276.4
259.6
224.7
177.8
178.3
45
232.0
521.9
740.0
1031.4
1372.3
1289.9
1166. 1
1084.2
919.7
712.7
691.2
46
386.5
831.9
1126.0
1512.5
2507.2
2544.7
2485.6
256 1. 1
2527.6
1931.0
1871.3
47
13.2
34.9
57.2
89.0
145.6
182.3
213.9
233.1
238.8
221.2
210.4
48
61.3
146.5
220.7
320.4
448.6
467.2
478.5
495.6
483.9
436.4
425.6
49
64.4
145.1
205.0
283.2
391.4
370.0
336.8
320.4
286.8
223.5
215.1
-------
EXHIBIT TJ1-2:
TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS - (Continued)
BLST"^
SECTOR
^^1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
199S
50
32.5
72.4
100.8
136.7
178.3
162.8
151.1
138.6
117.5
89.5
85.8
51
5.5
11.9
16.3
22.2
31.6
29.9
26.9
25.8
23.3
17.3
16.8
52
17.9
39.8
55.7
77.0
104.6
100.8
92.7
87.2
75.6
59.5
57.6
53
81.7
179.8
247.9
336.0
430.3
374.0
305.7
262.7
201.9
134.9
129.7
54
77.0
177.1
257.3
364.3
521.9
523.0
485.7
499.6
488.8
421.7
417.9
55
32.1
83.5
135.9
208.3
298.7
332.4
348.2
371.6
375.9
356.1
351.8
56
127.0
292.7
425.9
602. 1
803.3
757.5
671.3
640.5
573.4
468.5
455.2
57
240.9
558.4
788.7
1092.4
1533.6
1490.2
1424.7
1246.0
971.5
643.3
610.4
58
0.9
1.9
2.6
3.4
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.6
2.9
2.0
1.8
59
7.5
16.6
23.3
32.0
41.9
38.2
33.4
31.1
26.4
20.2
19.7
60
69.3
153.9
214.4
292.9
377.6
329.3
269.0
234.8
184.6
t25.9
123.7
61
1003.1
2166.2
2932.4
3919.5
5030.5
4437.0
3654.7
3264.7
2648.1
1917.4
1837.5
62
14.7
32.2
44.7
60.8
77.6
70. 1
60.8
54. 1
44.4
33.5
30.4
63
25.9
58.1
81.8
112.9
145.0
124.9
98.9
86.3
(6.9
44.6
44.5
64
335.3
751.3
1060.1
1465.8
1886. 1
1690.9
1431.9
1298.5
1085.8
834.4
826.0
65
1681.3
3610.9
4870.1
6465.8
8170.6
6911.2
5644.5
4800.4
3613.0
2272.0
2167.8
66
993.4
2149.2
2921.1
3906.6
4927.2
4142.2
3256.5
2758.9
2052.3
1263.7
1222.9
67
261.3
567.7
775.0
1044.0
1338.1
1157.2
926.7
803.3
621.9
411.6
399.9
68
303.4
659.0
898.5
1209.3
1557.3
1335.2
1056.2
890.9
656.4
393.4
375.4
69
461.6
990.6
1330.8
1767.5
2227.7
1869.8
1434.6
1182.4
836.5
474.0
457.3
t«70
15.1
33.6
47.1
64.7
87.4
81.8
72.7
67.7
58.3
44.3
41.5
\
43.2
95.0
131.3
178.6
227.7
196.5
156.8
136.4
105.8
71.4
70.0
72
753. t
1612.6
2166.3
2883.2
3753. 1
3221.8
2564.2
2199.9
1676.1
1015.8
988.1
73
141.3
352.9
552.9
827.7
1170.0
1251.0
1273.4
1294.9
1243.4
1119.3
1094.5
74
115.7
256.2
355.1
482.9
625.8
549.0
452.8
388.4
296.5
193.3
184.3
75
194.2
433. t
606.5
832.4
1080. 1
922.0
727.8
625.0
476.3
293.4
288.5
76
2637.8
5664.2
7624.8
10136.7
12694.9
10622.2
8098.3
6642.0
4647.5
2629.0
2521.4
77
119.2
263.3
367.5
505.7
678.3
642.7
576.7
541.9
472.8
372.3
358.6
78
55.0
122.8
172.5
237.5
306.7
278.4
237.6
213.4
174.3
130.5
124.5
79
160.7
505.7
934.2
1542.7
2372.3
3011.5
3437.3
3785.6
3921.2
3824.1
3726.6
80
67.2
165.6
257.2
383.3
1955.0
2006.8
2017.0
2073.6
2098.0
752.9
739.0
81
312.6
686.8
946.9
1287.0
1679.8
1468.3
1191.6
1026.6
781.9
493.3
475.2
82
142.3
310.6
423.9
570.6
749.4
647.9
523.2
444.6
333.9
197.1
190.6
83
8847.9
19049.9
25705.6
34245.1
42694.7
35195.5
26275.9
21177.3
14309.6
7449.4
7196.6
S4
659.2
1442.9
1982.8
2678.1
3464.3
3019.0
2434.4
2137.0
1685.0
1127.5
1099.5
85
47.9
101.4
134.1
177.7
229.5
203.8
169.3
143.7
106.7
67.8
66.3
86
8.7
19.2
26.5
35.4
44.0
38.0
33.5
29.0
22.4
15.7
15.4
87
58.2
131.0
185.8
257.9
335.2
290.0
233.1
205.4
163.3
110.2
109.0
88
556.1
1167.6
1538.3
2014.8
2540.8
2138.2
1686.5
1373.6
941.0
496.9
471.5
89
508.9
1104.0
1509.9
2038.6
2611.8
2213.7
1720. 1
1468.5
1104.7
675.4
658.4
90
13.3
29.5
41.4
56.9
72.8
64.0
53.2
47.4
38.9
28.8
27.8
91
943.1
2099.5
2914.4
3955.5
4975.9
4189.3
3298. 1
2719.7
1950.5
1167.3
1154.7
92
6.7
14.0
18.4
23.8
29.2
24.7
22.0
19.3
15.3
10.8
10.1
93
17.1
38.2
53.9
74.7
95.8
82.4
65.4
58. 0
46.6
32.6
32.4
94
47.8
102.9
140.4
188.3
235.6
190.8
138.2
117.8
89.1
53. 1
52.8
95
418.2
868.0
1131.6
1468.2
1836.0
1566.0
1323.6
1098.8
784.7
469.0
443.3
96
115.2
250.7
345.6
470.0
592.7
492.4
369.3
318.7
242.9
152.9
153.3
97
119.8
264.9
369.0
502.5
644. 1
563.5
469.0
417.4
340. 1
245.2
237.0
98
194.5
425.8
585.6
792.6
1008.8
852.4
662.7
568.9
424.0
257.5
253.5
-------
EXHIBIT DI-2:
TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS - (Continued)
.YEAR
BI
SECTOR
"^1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
99
16.0
36.5
52.7
74.3
111.5
111.1
105.2
104.0
96.9
74.9
72.9
100
27.3
60.0
83.6
114.9
155.5
154.0
143.3
139.8
127.5
107.0
102.1
101
8.7
19.0
26.1
35.4
44.3
39. 1
31.9
27.8
21.6
15.7
15.2
102
2.9
6.4
9.0
12.3
15.7
14.3
13.1
12. 1
10.2
7.9
7.7
103
1509.0
3233.3
4313.0
5736.0
7608.5
6631.9
5541. 1
4603.2
3230.3
1578.6
1548.3
to*
52.4
U5.0
158.1
215.7
287.5
257.1
212.5
191.3
154.1
102.3
105.8
105
28.1
58.8
77.6
101.7
128.5
106.2
82.4
68.3
48.7
26.3
25.2
106
44.3
96.6
132.4
178.8
224.1
196.6
160.2
139.3
108.2
77.7
74.8
107
16.8
37.0
51.5
69.9
88.3
72.2
54.3
45.0
32.8
18.8
17.9
108
7.8
16.9
23.3
31.6
39.9
33.1
25.0
22.2
18.0
12.4
12.9
109
8.3
18.5
25.9
35.4
45.2
40.2
34.8
31.4
26.0
19.5
19.1
110
82.1
179.6
248.0
335.3
430.6
388.0
343.5
318.0
271.3
210.6
202.5
111
400.2
961.5
1466.5
2142.7
3001.6
3227.7
3427.7
3555.7
3450.4
3114.0
2928.0
112
123.9
272.2
378.4
521.5
693.5
633.5
555.4
512.7
430.2
316.9
311.3
113
1601.7
3597.2
5093.2
7107.0
9636.3
9391.7
8689.0
8383.6
7566.1
6266.1
6090.9
114
91.2
218.3
328.2
472.8
656.6
687.3
677.4
711.7
705.1
649.0
643.5
115
251.6
559.1
785.4
1079.8
1430.8
1356.6
1227.4
1166.7
1032.7
841.9
814.8
116
8.6
20.4
30.2
42.9
60.7
61.6
58.7
61.1
60.0
53.2
53.2
117
113.2
263.7
386.0
551.1
766.6
791.7
734.4
731.4
696.5
622.7
639.8
118
112.3
257.3
368.8
518.1
699.7
667.4
578.9
540.8
470.8
375.0
381.8
S U9
492.9
1051.2
1428.8
1938.5
2505.6
2279.1
2037.5
1893.5
1599.8
1229.7
1185.8
00 120
278.3
642.2
932.7
1306.5
1853.0
1988.1
2025.3
2171.6
2213.1
2071.1
2028.7
121
79.9
182.9
262.7
369.0
514.4
494.0
448.6
437.1
397.4
316.4
316.8
122
35.1
80.5
116.9
168.5
245.6
289.7
325.0
364.6
389.0
387.9
383.0
123
4598.9
10307.0
14508.5
19956.0
26538.5
24467.8
21588.1
20258.0
17511.1
13484.2
13277.0
124
1006.9
2284.1
3249.3
4522.3
6008.9
5544.3
4861.8
4510.8
3825.8
2926.0
2950.2
125
366.3
817.5
1151.7
1596.2
2051.5
1879.1
1643.0
1500. 1
1240.2
966.0
940.0
126
410.1
928.6
1326.2
1858.2
2479.4
2401.5
2196.5
2107.5
1882.5
1568.3
1538.6
127
308.2
698.6
991.9
1379.7
1852.9
1800.0
1592.5
1506.8
1351.9
1135.0
1168.0
128
246.0
576.1
851.5
1227.9
1689.4
1724.8
1667.4
1655.2
1539.2
1339.6
1305.5
129
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
130
492.8
1187.9
1816.6
2667.9
3665.5
3843.4
3927.4
4070.7
3930.0
3570.9
3457.1
131
916.8
2005.3
2756.7
3732.2
4647.7
3951.9
3059.0
2513.0
1755.3
1083.0
1054.1
132
245.9
553.0
779.7
1073.2
1396.0
1280.6
1089.1
1022.2
879.7
691.9
689.0
133
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
134
8156.8
18149.1
25257.9
34390.4
42841.9
38251.3
30636.5
26442.2
20703.7
15880.6
16542.8
135
76.3
174.6
250.6
350.5
468.5
439.8
390.7
369.2
321.6
254.9
253.5
136
914.6
2102.3
3027.7
4262.9
5721.6
5417.6
4809.8
4498.6
3889.5
3093.3
3143.1
137
339.0
787.3
1142.1
1602.6
2114.4
2016.7
1807.0
1717.4
1523.7
1277.2
1300.6
138
39.3
90.1
130.2
185.5
253.2
243. 1
221.8
207.9
179.1
139.9
138.5
139
67.9
153.3
216.9
300.5
400.1
373.3
329.8
306.3
263.2
205.4
205.5
140
1.4
3.2
4.8
7.1
9.8
10. 1
10.5
10.5
9.8
8.5
8.2
141
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
142
1.4
3.1
4.5
6.3
8.5
8.3
7.3
6.9
6.2
5.2
5.5
143
73.6
174.7
265.5
406.8
611.7
668.6
691.6
688.2
641.2
549.6
540.8
144
298.5
686.9
995.2
1408.5
1897.4
1842.5
1695.3
1626.6
1449.5
1197.3
1173.3
145
204.0
450.0
625.8
868.9
1144.3
1079.0
978.8
903.1
762.3
590.8
576.0
146
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
147
15.9
36.0
51.7
73.4
99.8
99.5
91.9
89.3
81.0
68.2
66.4
-------
EXHIBIT m-2i
TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS — (Continued)
148
57.2
132.2
191.6
270.8
370.0
344.4
312.8
289.9
245.0
181.8
183.2
149
122.2
288.8
429.4
620.4
882.2
959.1
1068.4
1149.7
1174.0
1122.6
1122.8
150
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.Q
0.0
0.0
0.0
151
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
152
21000.0
48900.0
72600.0
101700.0
125700.0
115200.0
96900.0
82800.0
63300.0
48900.0
48000.1
153
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
154
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
155
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
156
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.Q
0.0
0.0
SUNS
71960.3
164199.3
236913.1
331963.9
431761.5
408406.3
366753.1
340093.4
291495.7
236649.8
231973.4
to
-------
EXHIBIT m-3:
PROJECTED PERCENTAGE IMPORT PENETRATION BY BLS SECTOR IN 1995
BLS
Import
BLS
Import
BLS
Import
Sector
Penetration
Sector
Penetration
Sector
Penetration
1
0.0
53
0.1
105
13.6
2
0.7
54
6.3
106
8.2
3
0.1
55
26.4
107
52.3
4
0.2
56
22.9
108
37.0
5
4.3
57
2.9
109
16.6
6
35.3
58
9.2
110
8.0
7
0.0
59
49.7
111
0.9
8
29.3
60
5.3
112
0.0
9
0.5
61
1.7
113
0.0
10
40.4
62
7.5
114
-1.9
11
0.3
63
42.1
115
8.2
12
31.0
64
2.9
116
0.0
13
5.3
65
15.1
117
0.0
14
14.0
66
1.2
118
0.0
15
0.0
67
7.1
119
0.0
16
1.6
68
6.6
120
0.5
17
0.0
69
29.7
121
7.1
18
3.2
70
0.7
122
0.0
19
1.2
71
2.3
123
-2.9
20
3.2
72
0.8
124
0.0
21
0.4
73
11.1
125
0.0
22
0.9
74
0.7
126
0.0
23
24.9
75
7.2
127
0.0
24
13.2
76
6.5
128
0.9
25
8.3
77
6.5
129
0.0
26
0.7
78
10.5
130
0.0
27
1.5
79
4.5
131
0.0
28
1.0
80
6.7
132
0.0
29
6.1
81
6.7
133
0.0
30
2.3
82
14.1
134
0.0
31
10.6
83
8.0
135
0.0
32
1.2
84
0.2
136
0.0
33
21.6
85
7.4
137
0.0
34
3.1
86
10.7
138
0.6
35
0.2
87
1.2
139
0.0
36
15.7
88
6.2
140
0.0
37
5.0
89
4.0
141
0.0
39
4.6
90
7.6
142
0.0
40
2.7
91
1.6
143
0.0
41
5.7
92
35.1
144
0.2
42
0.1
93
0.9
145
0.0
43
1.5
94
5.5
146
0.0
44
1.7
95
14.2
147
0.0
45
1.0
96
7.9
148
0.0
46
6.0
97
14.3
149
0.0
47
5.4
98
7.6
150
100.0
48
2.4
99
5.8
151
51.0
49
3.3
100
4.4
152
0.0
50
2.9
101
59.2
153
0.0
51
2.8
102
1.1
154
43.7
52
0.7
103
2.8
155
0.0
104
3.3
156
0.0
30
-------
coal demand), ori coal employment at the mine mouth and other indirect coal
employment, and on induced employment are presented in the remainder of this
chapter.
A. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT
SUPPORTED BY PLANT CONSTRUCTION
A summary of the direct employment and the indirect employment supported by
coal-to-methanol plant construction is provided in Exhibit in-1. All direct employment
supported by construction is, of course, in the construction sector and is given in
Exhibit m-1. A detailed breakdown of indirect employment supported by plant
construction, is provided in Exhibit HI—4. Direct construction employment is expected to
rise from 21,000 jobs in 1985 to 100,800 in 1989, then to decline to zero in 1994 when
construction is scheduled to end. Indirect construction employment is at least twice
the size of direet construction employment from 1985 through 1993, climbing from
50,960 jobs in 1985 to a high of 227,600 jobs in 1989, then declining to zero in 1994.
The industries where the largest indirect construction employment Lakes place are
listed in Exhibit m-5. The peak employment year for construction, 1989, is used as the
example year for the discussion of these impacts. In 1989, ten industries will account
for 65 percent of the indirect construction employment impacts. The largest of these,
General Industrial Machinery (BLS sector 83), will have an estimated employment of
39,529 jobs. Other particularly large employment levels are projected in Business
Services (BLS sector 134), with 36,051 jobs, and Wholesale Trade (sector 123), with
20,596 jobs.
B. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT
SUPPORTED BY PLANT OPERATIONS
(EXCLUDING COAL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT)
The employment supported by coal-to-methanol plant operations will total 2,700 jobs in
1986. Total employment associated with operations (excluding coal) will peak in 1993
at 108,221 jobs when 24 of the 30 plants are fully operational and the remaining 6 plants
are in the employment intensive start-up phase.* After 1993, employment will level
off at about 97,000 jobs.
1CoaI industry employment is not included in this discussion of operating employment. It
is discussed separately later in this chapter.
31
-------
1
2
S
4
5
i
7
•
9
18
11
12
13
14
15
14
17
18
1f
21
21
22
23
2*
25
26
27
28
29
SI
31
32
33
3*
35
36
37
3S
39
41
41
42
43
44
45
4ft
47
48
49
EXHIBIT 111-4:
INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT
(198S - 1995)
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
31.3
42.1
55.9
84.8
50.4
33.9
22.9
9.1
53.3
71.8
95.3
110.5
85.9
57.8
39.0
15.4
7.1
9.5
12.8
14.7
11.4
7.7
5.2
2.1
49.1
ft*.8
87.8
191.ft
79.0
53.2
35.9
14.3
188.2
142.9
189.8
219.9
171.1
115.1
77.7
31.0
48.4
ft3.2
82.9
94.2
71.6
46.4
32.7
13.8
182.1
217.9
291.3
142.3
268.6
178.1
124.7
51.4
188.5
257.3
352.0
422.7
336.4
236.6
157.7
61.4
91.8
129.1
HO.3
189.9
148.3
113.3
79.7
32.7
211.9
283.8
371.9
427.5
327.1
216.6
147.3
59.0
343.3
4tft.3
832.4
782.0
608.7
444.2
300.4
119.8
345.8
475.4
834.3
740.2
575.8
389.1
275.5
116.1
1833.8
1358.9
1772.5
2123.3
1540.7
1008.5
642.0
254.7
89.9
82.3
109.8
128.1
99.5
68.3
46.3
18.5
1815.8
1387.5
1893.5
2271.8
1824.2
1254.9
867.9
353.4
17.8
23.8
31.5
38.8
28.8
19.5
13.1
5.2
1.5
2.4
4.4
7.8
8.2
7.4
4.7
1.7
41.9
58.8
75.9
88.1
ft8.0
45.9
31.5
12.8
11.7
14.2
18.5
21.0
15.9
10.8
7.2
2.8
21.7
29.8
39.9
48.8
3ft. 1
24.2
16.4
6.6
U.4
18.2
24.4
28.4
22.0
14.7
10.0
4.0
17.7
23.9
31,9
37.0
28.6
19.2
12.8
5.0
2.7
3.8
4.9
5.8
4.ft
3.2
2.1
0.8
5.7
7.8
19.5
12.3
9.ft
6.6
4.4
1.7
12.1
18.8
21.0
24.2
18.6
12.2
8.2
3.2
9.4
12.5
18.4
19.1
14.9
10.2
6.8
2.6
15.5
21.3
28.9
34.2
27.1
18.8
12.9
5.2
3.5
4.7
8.3
7.3
5.6
3.7
2.5
1.0
128.2
188.9
221.9
258.4
186.2
125.5
84.8
33.9
2.4
3.3
4.4
5.0
3.7
2.4
1.6
0.7
128.9
176.9
238.5
276.9
216.3
149.0
98.8
38.5
19.9
25.3
33.2
37.8
28.5
19.6
13.4
5.4
82.7
111.9
148.8
170.8
130.4
89.0
60.4
24.2
47.5
84.5
88.3
101.3
79.4
54.6
36.7
14.6
115.2
137.8
178.9
202.1
151.6
98.3
65.0
25.5
1(9.1
228.2
313.ft
348.9
264.8
174.4
119.4
48.2
178.8
242.1
324.5
378.4
293.6
198.7
133.4
52.8
12.4
17.4
23.8
27.8
21.3
13.5
9.5
4.0
15.1
29.8
27.8
32.2
25.1
17.5
11.8
4.7
27.7
38.1
51.3
59.7
46.0
30.6
21.0
8.5
435.5
585.3
77ft. 2
898.7
693.2
467.2
315.8
125.8
23ft. 8
317.2
419.7
483.7
371.4
252.5
168.8
66. 1
397.3
418.3
558.8
ftftO.O
523.1
364.5
250.5
101.1
118.4
181.5
217.7
257.3
203.3
139.1
95.8
39.1
592.1
889.9
913.9
1076.5
848.9
589.8
402.4
160.8
815.5
1978.4
1419.ft
1649.3
1282.2
856.9
579.3
230.4
28.2
37.7
59.3
59.9
48.0
33.8
22.6
8.9
134.1
183.4
248.2
285.9
220.2
151.9
104. 1
41.9
148.8
192.2
257.7
299.4
230.7
155.2
103.7
40.9
1994
1995
-------
EXHIBIT m-4:
INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT - (Continued)
rEAR
BLS\.
SECTOR
\ 1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
51
32.5
49.5
92.3
120.3
136.4
103.6
73.0
48.6
19.1
0.0
51
5.5
11.4
15.5
20.5
23.9
18.6
12.4
8.4
3.4
0.0
52
17.9
38.3
51.3
48.4
80.9
64.5
44.7
30.3
12.0
0.0
53
81.7
174.9
239.3
319.0
369.8
285.0
191.4
127.8
50.4
0.0
54
77.8
145.4
223.4
297.4
342.4
260.5
166.5
114.5
46.7
0.0
55
32.1
49.8
95.1
Ml.1
147.1
112.5
75.0
51.5
26.9
0.0
56
127.9
275.4
374.3
500.0
573.8
433.5
280.5
188.8
75.5
0.0
57
240.9
544.9
754.2
1023.0
1240.2
1067.1
818.5
544.3
209.8
0.0
58
0.9
1.8
2.4
3.1
3.5
2.7
1.9
1.2
0.5
0.0
59
7.5
14.1
21.7
28.7
33.1
25.4
17.2
11.7
4.7
0.0
il
49.3
151.3
204.6
277.4
322.7
249.0
166.7
112.8
45.3
0.0
It
1813.1
2154.4
2897.5
3850.7
4474.0
3467.7
2309.0
1556.4
615.9
0.0
(2
14.7
31.0
41.1
53.7
60.6
45.2
29.6
19.0
7.2
0.0
43
25.9
57.3
79.4
108.1
126.7
98.0
64.8
44.7
18.3
0.0
64
335.3
727.0
987.8
1322.3
1529.5
1168.7
775.2
524.3
211.5
0.0
45
1481.3
3541.8
4727.2
4188.6
7047.4
5334.5
3623.0
2424.0
954.4
0.0
44
993.4
2124.2
2853.4
3774.2
4327.8
3290.5
2183.2
1476.1
589.0
0.0
47
241.3
558.3
747.5
990.0
1143.5
878.1
579.0
391.2
156.1
0.0
48
303.4
453.3
881.4
1175.9
1370.4
1064.4
711.5
478.9
189.1
0.0
u **
441.4
984.4
1318.4
1743.2
2019.6
1561.8
1037.8
699.7
277.6
0.0
w 7%
15.1
32.4
43.6
57.7
66.6
51.2
34.0
22.6
8.8
0.0
71
43.2
93.4
127.1
170.3
197.5
151.9
100.3
68.2
27.4
0.0
72
753.1
1404.1
2147.2
2845.6
3305.1
2563.5
1713.0
1159.6
462.5
0.0
73
141.3
310.8
424.3
574.7
672.7
524.1
356.3
240.5
96.1
0.0
74
115.7
251.7
341.5
456.1
531.4
413.0
279.8
186.7
73.3
0.0
75
194.2
428.3
592.0
803.1
936.9
720.8
477.6
325.6
131.7
0.0
74
2437.8
5435.4
7540.3
9971.2
11533.3
8902.6
5892.7
3968.3
1569.7
0.0
77
119.2
249.9
328.9
430.9
496.8
382.8
254.7
170.7
67.4
0.0
7ft
55.0
118.2
158.8
210.7
243.5
187.3
124.6
83.2
32.7
0.0
7t
148.7
343.1
458.4
607.7
710.0
555.5
373.7
254.1
101.6
0.0
SO
47.2
144.9
211.2
271.3
316.8
245.0
163.2
111.3
44.9
0.0
<1
312.4
477.3
918.4
1230.9
1442.0
1127.0
759.5
514.3
204.5
0.0
82
142.3
308.5
417.6
558.1
653. 1
510.2
346.4
233.4
92.6
0.0
S3
8847.9
19025.4
25433.2
34102.3
39528.6
30474.3
20152.3
13622.6
5424.3
0.0
•4
459.2
1415.4
1901.7
2519.0
2903.9
2229.1
1464.0
992.1
396.8
0.0
IS
47.9
99.8
129.7
>69.2
199.2
159.8
119.7
74.7
29.6
0.0
84
8.7
18.8
25.1
32.8
37.3
28.4
20.5
13.8
5.5
0.0
87
58.2
128.8
179.2
244.5
285.3
218.7
144.3
98.7
40.2
0.0
88
554.1
1143.9
1527.7
1994.3
2309.5
1802.0
1242.3
836.8
328.1
0.0
89
518.9
1092.1
1474.4
1968.9
2278.7
1745.0
1142.3
777.3
312.7
0.0
9*
13.3
28.4
38.9
51.9
59.4
44.8
29.3
19.5
7.7
0.0
91
943.1
2085.2
2871.1
3868.9
4502.4
3479.8
2362.7
1588.9
636.4
0.0
92
4.7
13.4
17.3
21.7
23.fr
17.1
12.1
7.9
3.0
0.0
93
17.1
37.4
51.7
70.3
81.5
61.9
40.2
27.6
11.3
0.0
94
47.8
102.1
137.9
183.3
207.1
152.5
93.8
64.3
26.4
0.0
95
418.2
858.1
1103.4
1415.0
1618.2
1252.4
898.4
599.6
233.0
0.0
94
115.2
248.3
338.5
455.9
525.7
396.8
252.9
175.3
72.5
0.0
97
119.8
257.5
347.2
459.6
523.7
394.0
259.2
173.4
68.8
0.0
98
194.5
422.3
575.3
771.9
897.4
691.2
458.5
317.5
129.4
0.0
1995
-------
EXHIBIT III-4;
INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT — (Continued)
YEAR
BI
SECTOR
\ 1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
9*
16.0
34.3
46.1
61.3
71.4
55.6
37.2
25.2
10.1
0.0
100
27.3
55.5
71.0
91.0
103.4
78.9
51.5
34.4
13.5
0.0
to 1
8.7
18.4
24.3
32.0
36.9
28.5
18.8
12.7
5.1
0.0
102
2.9
6.2
8.3
10.9
12.4
9.5
6.7
4.5
1.8
0.0
103
1519.1
3230.4
4304.4
5719.4
6826.5
5529.9
4044.0
2783.1
1117.5
0.0
104
52.4
113.4
153.3
206.1
245.3
195.9
134.0
94.6
39.6
0.0
105
28.1
58.5
76.8
100.1
114.1
86.6
57.9
39.0
15.4
0.0
104
44.3
93.9
124.5
163.5
187.9
144.0
95.0
63.7
25.2
0.0
107
16.8
36.7
50.6
68.1
77.5
57.6
36.8
24.5
9.7
0.0
108
7.8
16.6
22.6
3D.3
34.6
25.8
16.2
11.3
4.8
0.0
109
8.3
17.9
24.0
31.7
36.1
27.3
18.5
12.4
5.0
0.0
110
82.1
172.3
226.9
294.8
332.5
249.0
167.5
112.7
44.7
0.0
111
400.2
827.3
1082.2
1403.7
1582.8
1185.3
807.8
539.8
210.5
0.0
112
123.9
265.1
357.3
479.6
562.8
440.8
304.1
209.7
84.8
0.0
113
1601.7
3439.4
4627.9
6185.3
7243.8
5676.7
3837.8
2591.2
1031.3
o.e
114
91.2
197.8
267.3
353.4
404.7
309.2
203.0
140.0
56.8
0.0
115
251.6
527.4
694.0
903.5
1032.1
785.3
519.6
348.5
137.8
0.0
116
8.6
18.8
25.6
33.8
38.7
29.4
19.1
13.2
5.4
0.0
117
113.2
243.8
327.4
435.5
511.0
403.3
260.2
175.8
71.2
0.0
118
112.3
247.2
338.4
457.2
542.4
431.7
285.8
194.8
79.2
0.0
119
492.9
1012.3
1317.7
1723.2
1976.6
1512.2
1042.0
712.3
284.5
0.0
£ 121
278.3
591.0
784.0
1019.9
1157.1
873.4
571.1
387.7
155.2
0.0
121
79.9
177.9
247.4
337.9
401.8
319.3
218.0
151.5
62.1
o.e
122
35.1
76.6
105.4
144.9
175.4
141.9
99.6
68.5
27.8
0.0
123
4598.9
9934.0
13405.8
17787.5
20595.5
15898.1
10736.0
7358.7
2971.2
0.0
124
1006.9
2213.7
3037.6
4099.0
4843.5
3817.3
2626.6
1819.9
745.3
0.0
125
3(6.3
787.2
1062.2
1418.9
1656.5
1289.1
881.1
600.3
240.2
0.0
126
410.1
875.5
1170.5
1552.1
1805.4
1405.0
941.8
638.9
255.8
0.0
127
308.2
662.7
886.7
1173.3
1369.5
1075.7
701.5
470.5
189.7
0.0
128
246.0
530.6
716.8
960.3
1126.9
883.5
597.9
405.6
162.1
0.0
129
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
130
492.8
1050.6
1412.1
1872.8
2149.8
1642.3
1120.7
770.1
308.8
0.0
131
916.8
1975.5
2668.4
3557.7
4162.1
3239.0
2161.7
1458.6
580.2
0.0
132
245.9
532.8
720.2
956.0
1103.3
851.7
558.6
385.6
156.9
0.0
133
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
134
8156.8
17562.1
23534.6
31023.6
36050.5
28165.9
18341.4
12295.0
4976.0
0.0
135
76.3
167.7
229.9
309.3
363.2
284.5
192.9
133.0
54.1
0.0
136
914.6
2023.1
2788.5
3782.1
4499.5
3580.4
2447.7
1683.3
687.5
Q.O
137
339.0
748.2
1024.8
1370.2
1599.7
1250.9
840.2
575.0
234.4
0.0
138
39.3
86.7
119.9
164.7
198.0
159.3
111.5
76.5
31.0
0.0
139
47.9
147.6
200.0
267.0
312.7
244.7
165.9
112.9
45.6
0.0
140
1.4
3.0
4.1
5.5
6.6
5.2
3.8
2.6
1.0
0.0
141
1.1
8.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
142
1.4
3.0
4.0
5.4
6.4
5.1
3.4
2.3
0.9
0.0
143
73.6
161.7
225.7
322.5
410.3
347.5
253.7
173.6
69.9
0.0
144
298.5
648.1
879.8
1179.3
1381.4
1080.3
730. 1
496.3
198.7
0.0
145
204.0
432.1
573.4
765.3
898.4
710.6
495.7
336.2
134.2
0.0
146
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
147
15.9
33.8
45.2
60.4
71.0
56.0
37.3
25.3
10.1
0.0
1995
-------
EXHIBIT m-4;
INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT — (Continued)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
14ft
14*
15#
151
192
153
154
155
15*
SIMS
97
122
12
27
1ft
3ft
25
52
302
*27
a
a
9
0
0
0
242
4*1
17
37
519*1.3 119591. 1 147411.* 1957*1.8 227571.5 1747M.2 118471.9
ft
2
121
257
0
•
0
0
0
0
•
••239.1
S
It
32135.t
I.I
a.i
in
-------
EXHIBIT III-5;
INDIRECT CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT - 1989
BLS Sector Name
Sector Number
Employment Impact
(Number of Jobs)
Cement & Concrete Products
61
4,474
Blast Furnaces and Basic Steel Products
65
7,047
Fabricated Metal Products, nec.
76
11,533
General Industrial Machinery
83
39,529
Electric Lighting fic Wiring
91
4,502
Scientific <5c Controlling Instruments
103
6,827
Truck Transportation
113
7,244
Wholesale Trade
123
20,596
Eating 5c Drinking Places
124
4,844
Business Services, nec.
134
36,051
Professional Services, nec.
136
4,500
Subtotal:
147,147
Total Indirect Employment: 227,572
36
-------
All jobs supported by plant operations between 1986 and 1988 are jobs directly
associated with operating the plants. Levels of direct employment supported by plant
operation are shown in Exhibit HI-1. Beginning in 1989, indirect employment appears,
growing from being approximately equal in size to direct employment in 1989, to 130
percent of direct employment in 1993. Indirect employment levels off in 1994 and 1995
at 49,000 jobs, again approximately equal to direct employment.
Exhibit HI-6 lists indirect operating employment by BLS sector and by year. As shown
in Exhibit m-7, thirteen of these industries have annual indirect employment in excess
of 1000 jobs in 1995.* These thirteen industries account for over 60 percent of all
indirect employment from plant operations. Indirect employment is spread widely
throughout all industry sectors, however. Another 54 sectors are projected to have an
annual methanol-supported employment of 100 or more jobs each.
C. INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN COAL MINING AND ITS SUPPORTING
INDUSTRIES DUE TO METHANOL PLANT OPERATIONS
Employment in the coal industry and its supplier industries will represent a large
proportion of total annual indirect employment associated with coal-to-methanol plant
operations. All coal-related employment will total 5,709 jobs initially in 1986 as coal
stockpiling for the first six plants begins. Annual coal-related employment increases
steadily through 1994 to 138,111 jobs, as stockpiling demand grows and full scale plant
operations begin. When all plants are fully operational in 1995, total coal-related
employment equals approximately 135,000 jobs. A summary of total coal-related
employment, by year and by BLS sector, is provided in Exhibit III-8.
Methanol-supported employment in the coal mining industry grows steadily over the
period from 1986 to 1994 (see Exhibit III-9), rising from 2,671 jobs in 1986 to 69,886 jobs
in 1994. When all plants are fully operational, employment in coal mining totals
approximately 68,000 jobs in 1995. Methanol-supported coal mining employment should
stabilize at this level for the remainder of the century and into the first decade of the
twenty-first century.
1995 was chosen for detailed discussion because all plants will be fully operational by
that year; the patterns observed then can be expected to continue through future
operations.
37
-------
EXHIBIT M-6:
INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF PLANT OPERATIONS
(1985 - 1995)
„YEAR
BI^
SECTOR
1
2
3
4
5
I
7
8
9
II
11
12
13
14
15
It
17
18
If
co 21
oo 21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
10
1
2
3
14
35
16
7
8
9
•
1
2
3
4
5
4
7
8
1985
1986
1987
1988
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
4.4
9.3
12.8
14.8
17.4
14.8
13.8
11.2
16.3
21.2
25.9
30.5
24.6
24.2
1.7
2.4
3.0
3.7
4.3
3.3
3.3
11.7
17.4
23.0
28.4
33.7
27.9
27.5
24.1
35.5
46.6
57.4
67.8
55.5
54.7
11.4
15.7
19.3
24.4
30.2
25.0
24.7
37.3
57.5
75.7
97.6
119.8
104.2
184.6
42.2
61.5
82.8
99.6
114.1
87.1
81.6
17.9
25.9
38.1
48.4
58.5
47.3
46.6
112.5
171.8
227.3
286.0
342.4
294.3
287.6
113.8
204.9
315.5
406.9
493.4
459.4
445.0
151.1
230.2
308.1
401.6
503.7
450.8
471.8
212.4
479.3
721.9
943.4
1134.4
1124.0
1844.2
44.1
65.4
87.8
108.7
128.5
105.6
102.7
280.8
464.2
647.8
836.3
1023.2
912.8
905.4
2.8
4.1
5.3
6.5
7.6
6.0
5.7
9.7
1.5
2.5
2.9
3.2
2.4
2.2
8.8
12.7
16.6
20.6
24.7
20.0
19.8
2.8
2.8
3.7
4.5
5.1
4.0
3.8
4.5
4.5
8.4
10.3
12.2
9.8
9.6
4.5
6.6
8.6
10.6
12.5
10.2
10.0
3.4
4.9
6.4
7.7
8.8
6.8
6.4
8.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.3
1.9
2.5
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.4
2.4
3.4
4.3
5.2
6.0
4.7
4.4
1.9
2.8
3.8
4.5
5.2
4.1
3.9
4.1
6.3
8.6
10.8
13.0
11.0
10.8
9.8
1.1
1.4
1.7
2.0
1.5
1.4
28.9
38.3
48.6
58.7
68.5
51.7
49.9
1.5
8.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.1
27.8
39.3
51.5
61.3
69.9
52.7
49.8
4.3
5.7
7.3
8.9
10.4
7.7
7.5
18.2
25.5
33.3
40.9
48.2
38.8
37.1
12.8
17.6
22.7
27.1
31.3
23.3
22.6
25.1
33.7
41.4
49.1
56.2
42.2
40.3
44.9
61.2
74.6
90.1
105.1
76.2
74.2
58.1
76.5
95.0
111.9
127.8
89.5
86.5
3.8
4.8
4.8
6.8
7.4
5.7
5.8
10.4
12.1
14.0
15.4
16.6
7.9
7.6
469.2
475.9
482.2
501.2
519.0
90.3
88.6
86.9
128.0
168.9
208.4
246.4
201.8
195.9
49.9
69.6
91.1
110.2
127.2
98.9
93.6
66.4
97.6
131.1
163.2
194.0
156.4
154.1
24.3
35.6
46.9
58.5
70.3
57.3
57.4
99.9
147.6
198.7
246.3
290.6
234.2
227.2
705.8
1836.9
1349.3
1662.5
1955.6
1583.9
1534.9
20.5
35.1
50.8
64.0
75.7
66.6
63.4
40.6
68.4
98.2
127.3
155.4
142.4
138.9
51.1
77.9
105.2
130.4
154.1
131.1
126.1
-------
EXHIBIT III-6;
INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF PLANT OPERATIONS — (Continued)
198S
1986
1987
1988
1989
£990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
15.3
21.1
28.5
34.2
39.4
31.3
29.0
5.0
7.4
9.6
It.6
13.9
11.2
10.9
9.1
14.3
19.7
24.6
29.1
24.4
23.7
52.7
48.4
63.6
77.7
90.9
73.9
71.0
70.5
104.8
132.6
167.9
203.9
174.4
172.8
18.9
27.3
35.4
44.2
53.2
43.7
43.2
65.4
85.9
105.2
126.9
148.3
113.1
109.9
152.4
228.6
329.7
391.0
439.4
322.6
306.1
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
0.7
0.7
3.5
5.0
6.6
8.2
9.7
7.9
7.7
29.2
42.7
55.7
68.7
81.6
66.8
65.6
443.3
802.7
1140.2
1474.2
1782.9
1665.9
1596.5
5.8
8.8
11.7
14.0
15.8
12.9
11.7
10.2
15. f
19.5
24.6
29.8
25.0
25.0
121.4
181.0
237.2
295.0
354.0
299.0
296.0
676.0
934.0
1212.6
1461.9
1689.6
1299.6
1240.1
364.3
541.3
691.7
846.7
995.0
766.0
762.5
106.1
150.2
190.3
232.4
272.8
215.2
209.1
131.a
169.6
244.1
297.4
345.7
271.0
258.6
168.3
249.4
324.6
400.6
471.3
365.3
371.7
9.4
13.9
18.2
22.1
25.6
20.6
19.3
16.6
24.7
32.2
40.3
48.2
40.4
39.6
386.2
567.4
738.6
911.5
1075.4
874.6
651.0
77.8
106.4
135.4
162.6
188.9
140.7
137.6
50.3
70.8
91.2
109.4
125.8
95.7
91.3
94.8
130.5
163.5
199.5
235.8
181.4
178.4
890.3
1322.0
1718.0
2118.8
2487.2
2033.1
1949.9
59.3
81.1
101.6
121.5
140.0
104.5
100.7
19.3
26.9
34.0
40.9
47.1
35.9
34.2
114.8
157.3
197.7
238.7
277.4
205.8
200.6
1453.0
1490.0
1518.1
1575.7
1633.4
321.5
315.5
144.5
203.0
259.2
314.6
365.9
278.9
268.6
75.6
106.9
136.2
167.3
194.4
149.6
144.6
2931.6
4377.8
5702.9
7074.1
8370.3
6926.9
6691.8
300.5
411.0
509.2
616.7
719.9
547.0
533.4
16. 1
23.3
30.9
37.5
43.5
33.6
32.8
2.5
3.5
4.9
6.0
7.1
5.7
5.6
27.6
39.2
49.7
61.4
73.4
58.6
58.1
197.6
286.1
360.3
464.1
536.2
419.9
398.5
218.6
302.4
376.1
459.3
541.0
418.6
408.0
5.3
7.7
10.0
12.2
14.4
11.9
M.5
330.8
500.1
671.9
831.4
991.4
636.4
827.3
2.3
3.0
4.1
4.9
5.5
4.2
3.9
6.9
9.9
12.5
15.7
19.0
15.7
15.6
20.7
27.2
31.7
38.9
46.6
36.3
36.1
131.8
167.0
257.0
309.5
353.3
271.3
256.4
43.9
62.5
77.4
97.6
119.4
99.5
99.7
51.2
70.6
89.3
107.8
125.8
96.2
94.9
77.4
111.4
142.9
179.7
216.0
176.1
173.3
-------
EXHIBIT III-6;
INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF PLANT OPERATIONS — (Continued)
99 I.I I.I
l.l l.l 18.7
23.8
28.7
33.7
38.4
25.5
24.9
111 I.I I.I
l.l l.l 13.6
19.2
24.2
29.3
33.8
24.5
25.3
111 I.I I.I
l.l l.l 1.8
2.5
3.1
3.8
4.4
3.3
3.2
112 I.I I.I
l.l l.l 1.1
1.4
2.2
2.7
3.2
2.7
2.4
113 I.I I.I
l.l l.l 753.9
1158.8
1438.4
1751.8
2139.1
1502.7
1473.9
114 I.I I.I
l.l l.l 24.1
36.9
47.5
59.8
73.1
57.8
59.7
115 I.I l.l
l.l l.l 11.8
15.9
20.0
24.0
27.7
20.7
19.8
104 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 11.2
16.2
20.7
25.3
29.5
23.4
22.7
117 l.l l.l
l.l 0.1 7.9
10.4
12.4
15.0
17.3
13.0
12.4
118 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 3.1
4.3
5.2
6.7
8.4
7.1
7.4
109 0.1 l.l
1.0 a.O 3.2
4.3
5.5
6.7
7.8
4.1
5.9
111 0.1 l.l
l.l 0.1 33.5
47.0
61.3
74.9
87.4
70.1
47.3
111 l.l l.l
l.l 0.1 2SI.4
363.9
500.3
422.0
727.5
415.8
579.0
112 l.l l.l
i.i a.i 41.0
89.1
118.8
148.7
177.3
143.6
141.1
113 0.1 l.l
0.0 0.0 843.4
1439.8
2000.9
2540.2
3151.8
2724.1
2448.0
114 0.1 l.l
0.0 0.1 58.2
97.3
132.8
173.3
213.2
197.4
195.9
115 l.l l.l
l.l 1.0 113.3
159.0
202.3
245.3
285.4
224.4
217.2
lit l.l l.l
l.l 1.0 7.2
10.8
13.9
17.8
21.4
18.7
18.7
117 l.l l.l
l.l 1.0 43.4
100.4
129.8
162.5
196.8
173.5
178.3
J1§ l.l l.l
0.0 0.0 54.8
80.9
103.2
127.4
152.5
124.6
124.9
=119 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 179.1
258.6
346.5
431.4
509.5
411.4
396.7
121 l.l l.l
l.l 0.0 235.3
454.4
654.3
866.0
1069.6
1057.5
1035.8
121 0.1 l.l
l.l 0.0 40.3
95.7
130.7
168.2
205.9
180.9
181.1
122 l.l l.l
0.1 0.0 29.8
85.6
144.5
202.0
258.7
281.9
278.4
123 l.l l.l
l.l 0.0 2384.1
3356.3
4328.3
5342.6
4329.7
5002.1
4925.3
124 l.l l.l
l.l 0.0 454.8
666.5
883.1
1107.4
1335.6
1093.0
1102.1
125 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 101.9
156.8
213.3
268.2
320.1
271.4
244.3
124 l.l l.l
l.l 0.1 169.4
251.1
328.8
407.2
482.9
394.4
389.1
127 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 142.1
215.1
275.7
338.9
405.6
344.2
354.2
128 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 117.6
179.0
238.8
297.5
353.3
294.7
287.2
129 l.l l.l
0.0 0.0 1.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
131 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 222.8
325.4
435.1
546.5
649.6
534.8
517.8
131 l.l l.l
0.1 0.1 194.4
285.6
368.8
451.8
530.2
425.5
414.1
132 l.l l.l
l.l 0.1 111.1
148.1
189.4
238.6
287.2
238.8
237.9
133 l.l l.l
l.l 0.1 0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
l.l
134 l.l l.l
l.l 0.0 1248.9
1863.4
2373.7
2917.9
3487.5
2961.5
3185.1
135 l.l l.l
l.l 0.0 36.7
53.3
69.7
87.1
104.2
84.7
84.2
13* l.l l.l
l.l 1.0 411.8
412.8
811.1
1112.8
1220.7
1111.7
1127.1
137 l.l l.l
0.1 0.0 130.4
195.0
256.5
321.0
387.9
329.1
335.0
138 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 19.8
29.4
40.1
49.8
59.4
48.2
47.7
139 l.l l.l
l.l 1.0 31.9
44.2
41.3
74.3
88.3
71.3
71.3
141 l.l l.l
l.l 0.1 1.7
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.3
1.9
1.9
141 l.l l.l
l.l 0.0 1.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
1.4
142 l.l l.l
0.0 0.0 0.7
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.7
143 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 49.5
76.7
107.3
132.4
156.8
124.1
122.1
144 l.l l.l
l.l 0.0 135.6
197.5
257.8
317.8
375.2
301.1
295.1
145 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 73.6
119.7
148.7
183.5
216.5
174.0
149.4
144 l.l l.l
l.l l.l l.l
l.l
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
147 l.l l.l
l.l l.l 7.2
11.1
14.5
18.1
21.5
18.0
17.5
-------
EXHIBIT HI-6;
INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS OF PLANT OPERATIONS — (Continued)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
148
14*
151
151
152
153
154
153
15*
I.I
I.I
l.l
0.0
32.5
91.0
o.o
o.i
o.o
o.i
0.0
0.0
M
22182.3
4
21
6
35
32301.•
42152.3
84.1
492.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
51981.4
10
12
8
it
8
ti
(1421.8
49139.1
41992.7
-------
EXHIBIT M-7;
SUMMARY OF INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT FROM
OPERATIONS FOR SELECTED INDUSTRIES - 1995
BLS Sector Name
BLS Sector Number
Employment
Stone and Clay Mining and Quarrying
13
1,044
Industrial Inorganic and Organic Chemicals
46
1,535
Cement and Concrete Products
61
1,597
Blast Furnaces and Base Steel Products
65
1,240
Fabricated Metal Products, nec.
76
1,950
General Industrial Machinery
83
6,692
Scientific and Controlling Instruments
103
1,474
Truck Transportation
113
2,648
Electric Utilities, Public <5c Private
120
1,036
Wholesale Trade
123
4,925
Business Services, nec.
124
1,102
Eating and Drinking Places
134
3,085
Professional Services, nec.
136
1,027
Subtotal: 29,355
Total Indirect Employment: 48,593
42
-------
EXHIBIT m-8:
COAL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT: EMPLOYMENT AT THE MINE MOUTH. IN
SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES, AND IN TRANSPORTATION AND WHOLESALE TRADE
(1985 - 1995)
1985
I.I
0.1
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
0.1
I.I
I.I
«.l
J.O
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
I.I
I.I
0.1
0.1
I.I
0.1
I.I
I.I
I.I
I.I
l.l
I.I
l.l
1986
267
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
5.1
6.1
10.0
14.8
18.4
21.0
22.5
23. 1
22.7
5.4
11.7
17.5
25.9
32.2
36.8
39.5
40.5
39.8
1.7
3.3
5.4
8.0
9.9
11.3
12.2
12.5
12.3
5.5
10.9
17.8
26.4
32.9
37.5
40.3
41.3
40.6
19.6
31.6
63.3
93.5
116.6
132.9
*42 .8
146.4
144.1
22.7
44. 1
71.0
102.4
123.1
146.4
166.0
181.6
193.7
22.4
44.4
74.0
110.2
135.4
160.2
177.6
186.8
187.6
ID.2
20.6
35.1
53.0
69.0
77.8
81.6
80.9
75.8
4.4
8.8
14.7
21.9
31.0
36.8
40 .7
42.4
41.7
4.9
9.5
15.5
22.5
27.6
31.7
34.2
35.1
34.3
7946.t
15973.4
27267.6
41358.7
55919.2
63912.1
68499.3
69885.6
67687.6
63,1
126.4
209.0
308.7
386.6
462.6
524.4
569.7
596.3
13.1
25.2
41.7
58.9
71.4
79.2
82.0
80.3
74.6
5.3
10.5
17.4
25.6
32.6
37.3
40.0
40.9
39.8
291.2
589.0
too 1.0
1526.2
1945.6
2273.9
2491.4
2586.1
2565.6
1.2
2.3
3.8
5.7
7. 1
8.1
8.6
8.7
8.3
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.0
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.6
4.1
8.0
13.1
19.2
24.0
27.9
30.4
31.5
31.1
1.1
1.9
3.1
4.5
5.6
6.3
6.6
6.6
6.2
2.2
4.4
7.3
10.7
13.3
15.2
16.5
16.9
16.5
1.6
3.1
5.1
7.5
9.3
10.6
11.4
11.7
11.4
1.7
3.4
5.5
8.1
10.1
11.3
11.8
11.7
11.0
1.3
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
l.l
1.2
2.0
2.9
3.7
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.3
1.1
2.1
3.4
5.0
6.1
6.9
7.2
7.2
6.8
0.9
1.8
3.0
4.5
5.7
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.4
1.9
3.8
6.4
9.6
12.4
14.4
15.7
16.2
16.
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
33.2
64.5
103.2
145.7
181.9
207.7
223.2
226.7
218.9
1.4
0.8
1.2
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.5
S»3
16.6
27.5
40.7
52.0
58.2
61.1
60.7
57.4
3.0
5.8
9.4
13.5
17.2
19.9
21.6
22.1
21.5
17.3
34.0
55.4
80.2
101.4
116.4
125.7
128.5
125.6
5.0
9.8
16.3
24.3
31.1
35.2
37.6
38.1
37.1
58.1
113.1
181.0
257.8
319.6
346.2
364.8
365.4
349.1
12.7
25.1
40.7
58.7
71.7
82.9
90.0
92.3
89.8
14.7
29.2
48.2
71.1
89.2
101.1
107.8
109.1
105.5
1.6
1.2
1.9
2.8
3.3
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.7
1.9
1.7
2.9
4.2
5.5
6.2
6.6
6.7
6.4
1.5
2.9
4.8
7.0
8.6
10.0
10.9
11.2
11.1
56.7
111.4
182.8
267.7
334.3
381.8
409.5
416.5
404.3
12.2
23.9
39.0
56.8
71.5
80.8
85.2
85.1
80.6
37.4
74.4
124.6
187.5
242. 1
281.1
305.3
315.3
310.6
14.2
28.4
47.5
71.3
90.4
105.2
115.4
120.5
120.9
59.1
117.4
195.9
293.4
377.7
435.5
468.3
478.4
464. 1
47.6
92.9
152.9
225.6
279.4
319.2
341.6
347. 1
336.4
19.5
38.7
65.2
99.2
129.3
146.5
154.3
154.5
147.0
37.3
74.2
122. 1
178.6
228.3
264.3
286.5
294.0
286.7
12.3
25.5
41.9
61.4
76.5
86.3
91.7
92.4
88.9
-------
EXHIBIT ffl-8: COAL RELATED EMPLOYMENT;
EMPLOYMENT AT THE MINE MOUTH, IN SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES, AND
IN TRANSPORTATION AND WHOLESALE TRADE - (Continued?
.YEAR
BI
SECTOR
^1985
1986
1987
19(18
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
199S
31
0.1
2.9
8.5
16.4
26.4
38.0
49.6
55.8
59.0
59.2
56.8
51
0.0
o.s
0.8
1.6
2.7
4.0
4.9
5.6
6.0
6.1
ft.O
52
0.0
1.5
4.4
8.7
14.5
22.0
28.3
32.4
34.5
35.1
34.0
53
0.0
2.9
8.ft
16.9
27.8
40.7
50.6
57. 1
60.6
61.0
58.7
54
0.0
It.5
33.9
66.9
199.2
157.7
186.7
217.2
238.3
247.3
245.1
55
0.0
13.7
40.8
81.0
132.7
192.6
237.8
275.9
301.9
312.4
308.7
5ft
0.0
17.3
51. ft
*02.1
166.0
238. t
285.5
324.8
349.5
355.4
345.3
57
0.0
11.4
34.5
69.3
121.0
194.5
276.5
310.7
322.3
320.7
306.3
58
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
59
0.0
O.ft
1.7
3.3
5.3
7.7
9.7
11.2
12.0
12.3
12. B
60
0.0
2. ft
7.8
15.6
25.7
37.6
46.7
53.4
57.7
59.1
58.1
*1
0.0
11.8
34.9
68.8
113.2
166.6
205.5
234.1
249.3
251.5
241.0
62
0.0
1.3
3.ft
7.1
11.3
16.0
19.4
21.1
21.4
20.5
18.ft
63
0.0
0.8
2.4
4.9
8.1
11.9
14.4
17.0
18.7
19.5
19.5
64
0.0
24.3
72.3
143.5
235.2
341.2
419.6
479.3
520.3
535.6
530.1
45
0.0
49.1
142.9
277.2
447.2
642.7
808.9
914.5
969.0
972.3
927.8
0.0
23. B
«7.S
132.4
215.0
310.4
381.6
436.0
468.2
475.7
460.3
(7
0.0
9.4
27.5
54.0
88.4
128.9
157.5
179.8
193.0
196.5
190.9
48
0.0
5.7
14.9
33.4
55.1
81.3
100.7
114.5
121.6
122.4
116.8
49
0.0
4.2
12.4
24.3
39.9
58.5
72.1
82.1
87.7
88.7
85.6
£ 7B
0.0
1.2
3.5
7.0
11.4
16.6
20.5
23.0
24.0
23.7
22.2
7 ,
0.0
1.4
4.2
8.3
13.6
19.9
24.3
27.9
30.2
31.0
30.6
72
0.0
ft.5
19.1
37.5
61.7
90.9
112.6
128.8
138.2
140.9
137. 1
73
0.0
42.1
12ft.ft
253.0
419.5
620.5
781.7
891.8
958.5
978.6
957.0
74
0.0
4.5
13.5
26.8
44.2
65.2
81.8
92.3
97.4
97.ft
93.0
75
0.0
4.8
14.ft
29.3
48.4
70.6
86.7
99.9
108.8
112.0
110.1
7ft
0.0
28.8
84.5
165.5
271.2
397.5
487.6
554.9
590.6
595.9
571.5
77
0.0
13.4
38.5
74.8
122.2
178.8
220.4
249.7
265.4
267.8
257.9
7ft
0.0
4.ft
A3.ft
2ft .8
43.9
64.1
79.0
89.2
94.4
94.6
90.3
79
0.0
1ft2.ft
475.8
935.0
1547.5
2298.7
2865.9
3292.8
3542.2
3618.3
3526.1
BO
0.0
18.7
5ft.0
111.9
185.1
271.9
335.7
386.6
419.8
431.4
623.5
81
0.0
9.5
28.3
56.2
93.2
138.4
172.8
197.7
211.6
214.5
206.6
B2
0.0
2.1
ft.3
12.5
20.7
30.7
38.6
43.9
46.9
47.5
45.9
83
0.0
24.5
72.4
142.8
234.5
343.3
420.7
480.6
515.0
522.6
504.8
84
0.0
27.5
81.1
159.2
260.0
378.9
461.1
528.1
568.3
580.5
566.1
85
0.0
1.5
4.4
8.5
14.2
21.5
27.7
31.5
33.6
34.2
33.4
Bft
o.o
0.5
1.3
2.6
4.2
6.0
8.1
9.2
9.8
10.0
9.8
87
0.0
2.2
ft. A
13.3
22.1
32. %
39.2
45.4
49.7
51.4
50.9
88
0.0
3.7
»0.6
20.6
33.7
50.0
63.9
72.7
76.7
76.9
73.0
89
0.0
11.9
35.2
69.7
114.3
166.2
201.7
231.9
251.0
256.8
250.4
ft
«.0
e.8
2.5
5.0
8.0
11.5
13.9
15.7
16.8
16.9
16.3
91
0.0
14.4
43.3
86.6
142.7
209.4
263.5
299.6
322.7
331.0
327.4
92
0.0
0.4
1. 1
2. 1
3.3
4.5
5.9
6.5
6.7
6.6
6.2
93
0.0
B.7
2.2
4.5
7.3
14.4
12.7
14.8
16.3
16.9
16.8
94
0.0
0.8
2.5
5.0
7.9
11.1
12.6
14.6
16.2
16.8
16.7
95
0.0
9.9
28.0
53.1
86.1
126.5
168.2
189.7
198.4
197.7
186.9
9ft
0.0
2.4
7.1
14.1
23. 1
33.1
39. 1
45.8
51.0
53.4
53.6
97
0.0
7.4
21.8
42.8
69.2
98.8
120.5
136.2
145.5
147.1
142.1
91
0.0
3.5
10.4
20.7
34.1
49.8
61.2
71.6
78.6
81.4
80.1
-------
EXHIBIT m-8: COAL RELATED EMPLOYMENT;
EMPLOYMENT AT THE MINE MOUTH. IN SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES, AND
IN TRANSPORTATION AND WHOLESALE TRADE — (Continued)
.YEAR
BI
SECTOR
99
109
III
1t2
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
119
111
112
113
114
US
lit
117
115
11»
£: 129
121
122
123
124
123
124
127
128
12*
139
131
132
133
134
135
134
137
138
139
149
141
142
143
144
*43
144
147
1985
cn
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
2.2
6.6
13.0
21.4
31.7
39.3
45.1
48.4
49.4
48.1
4.5
12.6
23.9
38.5
55.8
67.5
76.2
80.3
80.5
76.8
9.4
1.7
3.4
5.5
8. 1
9.9
11.3
12.1
12.3
11.9
9.2
8.7
1.4
2.2
3.2
4.2
4.8
5.1
5.2
5.1
2.9
8.5
16.6
28. 1
43.3
58.7
68.2
73.7
75.9
74.4
1.6
4.8
9.5
16.1
24.4
30.9
36.9
41.5
44.5
46.1
9.3
9.8
1.6
2.6
3.7
4.6
5.2
5.6
5.6
5.4
2.7
7.9
15.3
25.0
36.4
44.5
50.4
53.6
54. 1
52. 1
0.3
9.9
1.8
2.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.8
5.9
5.6
9.2
8.7
1.4
2.2
3.1
3.6
4.2
4.8
5.2
5.4
0.6
1.9
3.7
6.8
8.6
10.8
12.3
13.2
13.5
13.2
7.3
21.0
48.5
64.7
92.8
114.7
130.4
139.0
140.6
135.1
134.1
384.3
739.0
1188.4
1678.5
2119.7
2393.8
2512.4
2498.2
2349.8
7.1
21.1
41.9
69.7
103.6
132.5
154.4
168.8
173.3
170.3
157.8
465.2
921.6
1529.1
2275.2
2850.3
3252.2
3483.8
3541.9
3442.9
29.6
60.9
119.4
193.6
280.8
341.6
398.3
435.1
451.4
447.6
31.7
91.4
176.3
285.4
412.3
505.5
572.9
609.5
617.5
S97.6
1.6
4.7
9.1
14.8
21.3
25.7
30.8
33.0
34.5
34.5
19.9
58.6
115.6
192.2
288.0
344.4
393. 1
428.5
449.2
461.5
19.1
30.4
60.9
102.4
154.8
189.9
218.6
239.1
250.4
254.9
39.9
111.1
215.3
349.9
508.3
649.0
749.8
805.9
818.3
789.1
51.2
148.7
286.6
460.6
660.2
799. 9
917.8
988.3
1013.6
992.8
5.9
15.3
31.1
52.3
79.0
99.9
117.4
129.4
135.6
135.7
3.8
11.6
23.6
40.5
62.2
80.9
94.1
102.5
106.0
104.6
373.9
1102.6
2168.5
3557.8
5213.4
6523.8
7556.7
8210.3
8482.8
8351.7
79.4
211.7
423.3
708.7
1060.5
1352.2
1583.3
1744.8
1832.9
1848.»
39.3
89.5
177.2
293.1
433.1
548.6
631.6
679.9
694.4
675.7
53.2
155.8
306.1
504.4
745.4
925.9
1061.4
1143.8
1171.7
1149.5
35.9
105.3
286.4
341.4
509.1
615.3
697.4
756.6
790.8
813.8
45.5
134.8
267.6
444.9
662.3
830.6
952,2
1023.8
1045.0
1818.4
0.9
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.8
137.4
404.5
795.1
1292.9
1875.5
2371.6
2754.1
2971.6
3036.1
2939.4
29.8
88.3
174.5
289.2
427.3
528.4
602.6
644.9
657.6
648.8
29.1
59.5
117. 1
191.5
280.7
341.1
39ft. 0
435.6
453.0
451.2
9.8
8.8
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.8
587.9
1723.2
3366.8
5542.5
8222.0
9921.4
11239.3
12240.2
12919.1
13457.8
6.9
20.7
41.2
68.6
102.0
128.2
149.3
163.4
170.2
169.3
79.2
239.2
488.8
810.4
1224.4
1551.0
1802.6
1981.2
2082.6
2116. 1
39.1
117.3
232.4
384.4
570.7
7 18.3
821.5
901.3
948.2
965.6
3.4
19.2
20.8
35.5
54.2
70.3
81.5
88.7
91.8
90.8
5.7
16.9
33.5
55.5
8 2.4
103.6
119.1
129.3
134. f
134.2
9.3
0.8
1.5
2.6
3.8
5.2
6.0
6.4
6.5
6.3
9.9
0.0
8.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
9.1
0.4
0.9
1.4
2.2
2.7
3.8
3.3
3.5
3.7
13.9
39.8
84.3
152.0
244.4
330.6
382.2
414.5
425.6
418.8
38.8
115.4
229.2
380.4
564.8
707.3
812.5
875.5
896.2
878.2
18.9
52.4
103.6
172.3
253.7
334.5
383.3
411.7
416.8
486.4
8.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
t.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.8
2.2
6.6
13.0
21.7
32.5
40.0
45.9
49.3
50.2
48.9
-------
EXHIBIT PI-8: COAL RELATED EMPLOYMENT:
EMPLOYMENT AT THE MINE MOUTH, TN SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES, AND
IN TRANSPORTATION AND WHOLESALE TRADE — (Continued)
.YEAR
BI
SECTOR
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
1985
1986
1987
SUNS
0.0
5719.2
1(991.5
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
21.5
35.1
53.5
71.4
84.1
93.1
98.4
96.8
164.2
248.6
341.2
400.4
440.7
46 1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
33(12.9
56307.7
84206.0
109229.9
125072.9
134639.0
138110.7
1995
9
44
1
5
135581.7
o>
-------
Year
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
EXHIBIT m-9:
ANNUAL COAL-MINING EMPLOYMENT SUPPORTED
BY A DOMESTIC METHANOL INDUSTRY
1985 - 1995
Number of Jobs
0
2,670.6
7,946.1
15,973.4
27.267.6
41.358.7
55.919.2
63,912.1
68.499.3
69,885.6
67,687.6
47
-------
Employment in coal mining, and in the transportation and wholesale trade sectors which
distribute the coal to the plants, amounts to at least half of the total coal-related
employment throughout the 1986 to 1995 period. Methanol-supported employment in
these sectors grows from 2,958 jobs in 1986 to 75,898 jobs in 1994. It declines slightly
to 73,490 jobs in 1995, with actual coal mining employment accounting for at least 90
percent of these jobs.
Methanol-supported employment in industries supplying the coal industry will total
2,751 jobs in 1986, increasing to about 62,000 jobs in 1994 and 1995. Including the
transportation and wholesale trade sectors, eleven industries will have employment in
excess of 1000 jobs by 1995 as a result of methanol-supported demand for coal. These
industries are listed in Exhibit EI-10. An additional 59 industries will have indirect
employment of 100 or more jobs, with 15 of these having 500 or more jobs a year.
D. TOTAL INDUCED EMPLOYMENT: THE EFFECT OF PLANT CONSTRUCTION
AND OPERATION ON PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
The direct and indirect employment supported by coal-to-methanol plant construction
and operation increase personal income and personal consumption expenditures, leading
to further employment. These employment effects are referred to as induced employ-
ment. Total induced employment estimates for each year are presented in Exhibit m-
11 for the period from 1985 through 1995.
Induced employment is expected to grow from almost 36,000 jobs in 1985 to 227,000
jobs in 1990. It is then expected to decline to about 147,000 jobs in 1994 and 1995.
Induced employment is a significant portion of the total level of employment supported
by this industry throughout the analysis period. In 1985, it amounts to 33.3 percent of
total methanol-supported employment. This percentage increases by 0.3 to 0.6 points
per year until 1995, when it reaches 38.8 percent.
Exhibit m-11 also presents the annual total employment multipliers that were used to
calculate total induced employment for each year from 1985 to 1995. Data is also
presented in the exhibit to show how each of these multipliers were derived. For
example, in 1990 direct and indirect employment supported by the methanol industry
48
-------
EXHIBIT 111-10;
COAL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT:
EMPLOYMENT IN SUPPLIER INDUSTRIES AND
IN TRANSPORTATION AND WHOLESALE TRADE - 1995
BLS Sector Name
BLS Sector Number
Employment
Maintenance and Repair Construction
15
2,566
Construction, Mining & Oilfield Machinery
79
3,526
Railroad Transportation
111
2,349
Truck Transportation
113
3,443
Wholesale Trade
123
8,352
Eating and Dining Places
124
1,848
Banking
126
1,150
Insurance
128
1,018
Real Estate
130
2,939
Business Services, nec.
134
13,458
Professional Services, nec.
136
2,116
Subtotal:
42,765
Employment Total:
67,693
(Excluding Mine Mouth)
49
-------
EXHIBIT ni-11;
INDUCED EMPLOYMENT: MULTIPLIERS AND PROJECTED INDUCED EMPLOYMENT
1885 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1982 1993 1994 1995
Total direct and indirect
employment 71,960 164,199 236,913 331,064 431,762 408,406 366,753 340,093 291,496 236,650 231,973
Initial induced employment 23,978 55,291 80,698 114,471 152,176 145,957 133,505 126,109 109,926 90,523 90,009
Ratio of initial induced
employment to total
direct and indirect
employment .3332 .3367 .3406 .3458 .3525 .3574 .3640 .3708 .3771 .3825 .3880
Total employment multiplier 1.4997 1.5077 1.S166 1.5285 1.5443 1.5561 1.5724 1.5893 1.6054 1.6195 1.6340
Total induced employment 35,961 83,361 122,384 174,970 235,004 227,129 209,920 200,430 176,478 146,600 147,076
cn
-------
totaled 408,406 jobs. Following the method presented in Chapter n, Section H, the BLS
interindustry model and the BLS labor demand model were used to estimate that
145,957 jobs would be supported by the projected personal consumption expenditures
(PCE) of these individuals. Since the ratio of the initially estimated induced
employment to the sum of direct and indirect employment was .3574, the estimated
total employment multiplier was determined to be 1.5561. Consequently, total induced
employment was estimated to be 227,129 jobs[i.e., (1.5561X408,406)-408,406 = 227,12!§.*
E. REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS:
A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
The employment estimates presented above are estimates of the employment supported
by a methanol fuel production industry at the national level. They do not reflect the
regional distribution of this employment, nor do they depict the dynamic adjustment of
regional job markets to the existence of the industry. They simply represent the total
employment in each sector of the economy, supported by the industry, at the national
level. Futhermore, they should be interpreted as average, not marginal, estimates of
the employment associated with the projected level of industry activity.
Although a determination of the regional distribution of the estimated total employ-
ment supported by a coal-to-methanol industry was not included in this analysis, several
conclusions about regional effects may be drawn from these estimates. For example,
one would expect a significant portion of the indirect and induced employment
supported by the construction and operation phases to occur within the states in which
the methanol synthesis plants are located (in conjunction with direct construction and
operation employment impacts) and in neighboring states. Similarly, one would expect
a significant portion of the indirect employment associated with coal mining to occur in
those states where coal is mined; significant levels of induced employment would also,
consequently, exist in these states. The magnitude of these latter state level effects
would increase greatly, and the regional distribution of direct, indirect, and induced
1Note: The actual multipliers used were carried to nine decimal points. For example,
the multiplier 1.5561 is actually 1.556134716. If this multiplier is used, the correct
induced employment estimate of 227,129 is generated. If the multipliers in Exhibit III-
11 are used, the results will differ slightly from the estimates presented, i.e.
(1.5561X408,406)-408,406 = 227,115, not 227,129.
51
-------
employment narrow greatly, if the synthesis plants are located in or bordering on the
states in which coal is mined. In general, the greater the geographic concentration of
the methanol fuel production industry and its supplier industries, the narrower the
regional distribution of the employment associated with the industry.
Furthermore, the greater the importance of a given state to a sector of the economy
that is important to the methanol fuel production industry, the greater the likelihood
that the state will experience a significant employment impact from the development
of the industry. What are these sectors and states?
Exhibit HI-12 presents those sectors of the economy that experience direct and indirect
employment associated with the methanol industry in excess of 5000 jobs for the years
1990 (10 sectors) and 1995 (5 sectors). Excluding direct construction and operation
employment, these sectors account for over 60 percent of all jobs associated with the
industry in each of these years. Exhibit m-13 lists the key states and their combined
output share for each of the sectors (except for transportation and service sectors 113,
123, 124, 134, and 136),* as identified by Jack Faucett Associates during the
construction of a multiregional input-output model for the U.S. Department of Health
o
and Human Services. Given this information, it is reasonable to expect that these
states would experience significant employment related to the development of a
methanol fuel industry. They are located predominantly in the Midwest, and to a lesser
degree in the Northeast.
These are the general conclusions concerning regional employment effects that can be
drawn from this analysis. In order to quantify regional differences in the distribution of
employment associated with a methanol fuel industry, and to characterize the dynamic
adjustment of regional labor markets to the existence of the industry, a formal regional
analysis must be conducted.
Output in the transportation and service sectors is greater in some states than in others
due to demographic factors. Consequently, it is not appropriate to identify key states
for these sectors.
2
Jack Faucett Associates. The Multiregional Input-Output Accounts, 1977. U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, 1983.
52
-------
EXHIBIT ffi-12:
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS
IN 1990 AND 1995
BLS Sector 1990 1995
Total Direct and Indirect Employment 408,406.3 231 ,937.4
11-Coal Mining 42,172.3 6B, 132.6
65 - Blast Furnaces and Basic Steel 6,911.2 2,167.8
76 - Fabricated Metal, nec. 10,622.2 2,521.4
83 - General Industrial Machinery 35,195.5 7,196.6
103 - Scientific and
Controlling Instruments 6,631.9 1,548.3
113 - Truck Transportation 9,391.7 6,090.9
123 - Wholesale Trade 24,467.8 13,277.0
124 - Retail Trade 5,544.3 2,950.2
134 - Business Services, nec. 38,251.3 16,542.8
136 - Professional Services, nec, 5,417.6 3,143.1
152 - Construction and Operation
Employment 115,200.0 48,000.0
Total Employment
minus Sector 152 293,206.3 183,973.4
Subtotal of remaining sectors 184,605.8 111,239.9
Remaining sectors share .630 .605
53
-------
EXHIBIT III-13:
KEY STATES BY SECTOR
11 - COAL MINING
West Virginia
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Ohio
Illinois
Indiana
Share = 84.0%
65 - BLAST FURNACES AND
BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Michigan
Share = 71.1%
76 - FABRICATED METAL. NEC
Ohio
California
Illinois
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Texas
Share = 55.8%
83 - GENERAL INDUSTRIAL MACHNINERY
Ohio
California
Illinois
Pennsylvania
New York
Michigan
Share = 51.4%
103 - SCIENTIFIC AND CONTROLLING
INSTRUMENTS
New York
Massachusetts
California
Illinois
Share = 56.8%
54
-------
CHAPTER IV:
METHANOL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT IN PERSPECTIVE
The annual employment projections presented in Chapter HI are estimates of the
absolute level of employment supported by the development of a 2.5 million BPD
domestic methanol industry. How significant tire these employment estimates,
however? Will the development of a domestic methanol fuel industry employ a large
share of the country's workforce? Does the capital expended on its development
generate more employment than equal expenditures on other types of economic
activity? Is the cost of creating the industry comparable to the dollar value of
displaced oil imports? These questions and other issues are addressed in this chapter.
A. METHANOL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT AND
THE NATION'S LABOR FORCE
A 2.5 million BPD domestic methanol industry should support less than one-half of one
percent of the nation's civilian labor force, through direct, indirect, or induced
employment, in all but two years between 1985 and 1995. As shown in Exhibit IV-1, the
methanol-related share of the civilian labor force ranges from a low of less than
one-tenth of one percent in 1965 to 0.54 percent in 1989. It declines from 1989 until
1994 and 1995, when it stabilizes at about three-tenths of one percent (379,000 jobs).
Methanol-related employment in the coal mining industry is estimated to total almost
68,000 jobs in 1995. This is a substantial share of the 317,000 coal mining jobs currently
projected by the BLS for that year (21.5 percent).1 In fact, the methanol industry's
greatest proportional effect on employment occurs in the coal mining industry.
B. METHANOL-RELATED EMPLOYMENT AND
REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
What if all of the jobs supported by the development of a 2.5 million BPD domestic
methanol industry existed within a limited geographic region, such as the Midwest? As
"^Personick, Valerie A. "The Job Outlook Through 1995: Industry Output and Employment
Projections." Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 24-36
55
-------
EXHIBIT IV-1:
PROJECTED ANNUAL METHANOL-RELATED JOBS; SHARE OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Projected ClvlUan Labor
Force (000) 116,978 118,693 120,421 122,002 123,563 124,951 126,350 127,587 128,860 130,102 131,387
Projected Methanol-Related
Jobs (000) 108 248 359 506 667 636 577 541 468 383 379
Methanol-Related Jobs:
Share of Labor Force (%) 0.09 0.21 0.30 0.41 0.54 0.51 0.46 0.42 0.36 0.29 0.29
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 1983 for 1990 and 1995. Unpublished data from BLS for remaining years.
Oi
-------
shown in Exhibit IV-2, total methanol-related employment would equal about 1.5
percent of estimated total employment in 1995 for the seven states of Pennsylvania,
Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky (each of which was
identified in the previous chapter as a key state in the development of the industry).
The industry's share of total employment in these states over the period from 1985 to
1995 would range from 0.46 percent in 1985 to 2.74 percent in 1989. The impact of the
domestic methanol industry on coal mining and construction employment in these states
would be very significant.
C. METHANOL CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT VS. CONSTRUCTION
EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF OTHER PROJECTS
The construeti(xi of 30 methanol fuel production plants will support 508,500 direct
construction jobs, and a total of 1,647,340 direct and indirect construction jobs, over
the period from 1985 to 1995. Since each plant will cost a little over $3 billion (1981
dollars) to build, the total cost of all the plants is $91.2 billion. Thus, the expenditure
of $1 billion (1981 dollars) on the construction of a methanol fuel production facility
will support 5,650 direct construction jobs and a total of 18,300 direct and indirect
construction jobs.
How does this compare with the level of direct and indirect employment associated
with other construction activity? As shown in Exhibit IV-3, public works construction
projects employ, on average, 12,100 people directly and a total of 17,800 people for
every $1 billion (1981 dollars) expended. Thus, the construction of a methanol plant
directly employs fewer people per billion dollars expended than the average public
works project, but it employs more people directly and indirectly per billion dollars
expended. This result may reflect the value of the primary and intermediate inputs into
the construction of the plant, as well as the labor requirements associated with the
production of those inputs.
D. TOTAL METHANOL-SUPPORTED EMPLOYMENT VS.
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT SUPPORTED BY SIMILAR EXPENDITURES
IN OTHER SECTORS: 1985 THROUGH 2020
The construction and operation of 30 fuel methanol production plants over the period
from 1985 through 2020 (the projected lifetime of the plants) will require a total
57
-------
EXHIBIT IV-2;
PROJECTED ANNUAL METHANOL-RELATED JOBS;
SHARE OF PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT FOR KEY STATES1
1985 - 1995
Year
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Estimated Total'
Employment
23,300,700
23,548,100
23,798,100
24,050,700
24,306,000
24,564,000
24,824,800
25,088,400
25,354,700
25,623,900
25,895,900
Methanol-RelatecT
Employment
108,000
248,000
359,000
506,000
667,000
636,000
577,000
541,000
468,000
383,000
379,000
Share (%)
0.46
1.05
1.51
2.10
2.74
2.59
2.32
2.16
1.85
1.49
1.46
West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan.
^Derived from The Multiregional Input-Output Accounts, 1977. By Jack Faucett
Associates for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1983.
'Assumes all methanol related employment occurs in the seven states considered.
58
-------
EXHIBIT IV-3:
METHANOL CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT VS.
ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT PER BILLION DOLLARS
FOR VARIOUS PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS
(1981 Dollars)
Type of Project
Methanol Plant Construction
Direct Labor
Requirements
5,650
Total Labor
Requirements
18,300
Building Construction
Private one-family housing
Public housing
Schools
Hospitals
Nursing homes
College housing
Federal office buildings
6,900
11,500
9,700
10,800
10,700
12,100
12,000
12,200
16,400
15,700
16,700
16,500
17,600
17,500
Heavy Construction
Highways 7,300
Sewer Works
Lines 9,800
Plants 10,600
Civil Works
Large earth-fill dams 13,900
Small earth-fill dams 14,200
Local flood protection 16,400
Pile dikes 13,400
Levees 15,900
Revetments 6,200
Powerhouse construction 9,500
Medium concrete dams 15,600
Large multiple-purpose projects 17,800
Dredging 16,400
Lock and concrete dams 11,800
Miscellaneous 12,600
Mean 12,100
13,000
15,400
16,800
18,100
19,400
21,300
19,400
18,200
16,200
19,800
20,600
22,900
19,900
19,700
17,800
17,800
Source: Developed from data in Table 5.2 of Regional Cycles and Employment of
Public Works Investments. George Vernez et.al., The Rand Corporation.
Prepared for the Economic Development Administration, January 1977.
59
-------
expenditure of $445.4 billion (unamortized 1981 dollars). Construction of the 30 plants
will require $91.2 billion; operation of the plants will require the remaining $354.2
billion (see Appendix A-8 for further details). Methanol-supported employment over the
period will total 13,218,460 jobs, or 29,676 jobs per billion dollars expended. This
estimate includes all direct, indirect, and induced employment.
Exhibit IV-4 compares the total employment supported by the fuel methanol industry
from 1985 through 2020 with the total employment (direct, indirect, and induced)
supported by an identical level of total expenditure in six other sectors over the same
period. These sectors, and the relevant breakdown of total expenditures in each, are
defined as follows:
• Defense Expenditures (General) — $445.4 billion is spent on all types of
defense work. Thus almost half goes to pay the salaries and benefits of
the Department of Defense's military and civilian employees.
• Defense Expenditures (Industry) — $445-4 billion is spent on defense
purchases from industry.
• Power Plants ~ $91.2 billion is spent on the construction of new electric
power plants. The remaining $354.2 billion is used to purchase their
output.
• Aircraft — $91.2 billion is spent on the construction of new aircraft. The
remaining $354.2 billion is used to purchase air transportation services.
• Hospitals — $91.2 billion is spent on the construction of new hospitals.
The remaining $354.2 billion is used to purchase services from those
hospitals.
• Public Service Employment — $445.4 billion is spent on public service
employment (i.e. CETA, WPA, PEP), with 90 percent of the funds
earmarked for wages.
Appendix A-8 describes the methodologies used to determine the total employment
impacts for each of these sectors.
60
-------
EXHIBIT IV-4:
COMPARISON OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
SUPPORTED BY THE METHANOL INDUSTRY WITH TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER SECTORS, SPENDING CONSTANT
1985-2020
Job-Years of
Total Employment
1985-2020
Job-Years of Total
Employment Per Billion
Dollars Expended
1985-2020
Methanol Industry
Defense Expenditures (General)*
Defense Expenditures (Industry)^
2
Power Plants
3
Aircraft
2
Hospitals
Public Service Employment4
Total Expenditure (1985-2020)
In Each Sector (1981 dollars)
13,218,460
12,372,952
10,393,048
11,332,704
12,831,734
25,679,658
33,507,984
$445,422,700,000
29,676
27,778
23,333
25,443
28,808
57,652
75,227
Congressional Budget Office, Defense Spending and the Economy, February 1983.
2
Developed from unpublished BLS data and data in Table 5.2 of Regional Cycles and
Employment of Public Works Investments by Georges Vernez et.al., The Rand
Corporation, January 1977 (Prepared for the Economic Development Administration).
3
Developed from unpublished BLS data.
4
Vernez, Georges and Roger Vaughn. Assessment of Countercyclical Public Works and
Public Service Employment Programs. The Rand Corporation, September 1978 (Pre-
pared for the Economic Development Administration); and the Congressional Budget
Office, Temporary Measures to Stimulate Employment; An Evaluation of Some
Alternatives, September 2,1975.
61
-------
As shown in Exhibit IV-4, methanol-related employment over the period from 1985
through 2020 is greater than the level of employment supported by an identical total
expenditure in the two defense sectors, the power plant sector, and the aircraft sector.
In particular, methanol-related employment is estimated to be about 25 percent greater
than employment associated with defense purchases from industry. However, total
methanol-related employment from 1985 through 2020 is estimated to be much less
than total employment in the hospital and public service employment sectors for an
identical level of expenditure. This is probably because hospital and public service
employment is not capital intensive and also because public service employment
generally involves jobs with relatively low salaries.
Although total methanol-supported employment from 1985 through 2020 is greater than
that supported by identical expenditures in the two defense sectors, the aircraft sector,
and the power plant sector, it does not differ greatly from total employment in three of
these four sectors. In fact, it is difficult to conclude from these results that a fuel
methanol industry will support more total employment than any of these sectors, with
the exception of defense purchases from industry, given differences in the assumptions,
the methodologies, and the models used to generate the projections on which these
estimates are based. In conclusion, it appears that the job creation potential of a
domestic fuel methanol industry is somewhat greater than that of programs involving
only purchases of defense-related products, similar to that of other industrial projects,
and less than the job creation potential of public service employment programs which
pay much lower salaries and are less capital intensive.
E. THE METHANOL INDUSTRY, GASOLINE, AND IMPORTED OIL
If methanol fuel is produced in the United States for transportation uses, it is
reasonable to conclude that domestic consumption of gasoline, and thus oil, would
decline. In fact, the domestic production of 500,000 barrels per day of methanol could
(fisplace as much as 300,000 barrels per day of gasoline refined from imported oil.
Thus, the 2.5 million BPD domestic methanol industry could displace 1.5 million BPD of
gasoline refined from imported oil, and would supply about 20 percent of the total
projected 1995 highway fuel consumption.
Exhibit IV-5 compares the annual capital expenditures tin 1931 dollars) associated with
the construction of a 30-plant domestic methanol industry with the value of the
gasoline displaced by methanol production. The present discounted value of these
62
-------
EXHIBIT IV-5:
COMPARISON OF CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES WITH DOLLAR VALUES
OF DISPLACED GASOLINE REFINED FROM IMPORTED OIL
(Billions of Dollars) 1985 - 1995
Annual Construction
Expenditures
1) 1981 Dollars1
2) Discounted to 1984^
Annual Dollar Value of
Reduced Oil Imports
S \) Dollars3
2) Discounted to 19841
1985 1986 1987
3.83 8.39 11.49
3.46 6.93 8.63
0 0 0
0 0 0
1988 1989 1990
15.50 18.24 14.41
10.59 11.33 8.13
0 0 4.38
0 0 2.47
1991 1992 1993
9.85 6.75 2.74
5.05 3.15 1.16
8.76 13.14 17.52
4.50 6.13 7.43
1994 1995 Total
0 0 91.20
0 0 58.45
21.90 21.90 87.60
B.44 7.68 36.65
Assumes plant cost in 1981 dollars = $3 billion, per Dames and Moore.
2
Assumes a discount rate of 10 percent.
3Assumes $40 is the price per imported barrel of gasoline.
-------
capital investments totals $58.45 billion (1981 dollars) for the period from 1985 to
1995. The present discounted value of the displaced gasoline refined from imported oil
is $36.65 billion for the same period, conservatively assuming a price of $40 (1981
dollars) per barrel of gasoline. It must be emphasized, however, that the methanol
plants will continue to produce fuel after 1995 while the construction expenditures will
end in 1993. As shown in Exhibit IV-6, the present discounted value of the displaced
gasoline refined from imported oil exceeds the present discounted value of the capital
investment by the year 2000, only 6 years after completion of the final set of methanol
plants. After that year, the net difference between them grows, reaching nearly $50
billion by 2020.
64
-------
EXHIBIT IV-6:
COMPARISON Of DISCOUNTED TOTAL CONSTRUCTION
EXPENDITURES WITH DISCOUNTED TOTAL VALUE OF
DISPLACED OIL IMPORTS (Billions of 1981 Dollars)
FOR KEY PERIODS1
Period
Through:
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Discounted Construction
Expenditures
58.45
58.45
58.45
58.45
58.45
58.45
Discounted Value of
Displaced Oil Imports
36.65
65.75
83.82
95.04
102.01
106.34
Expressed in 1981 dollars discounted to 1984 from forecast year.
65
-------
APPENDIX A-l;
COAL-TO-METHANOL PLANT DESIGN
AND FEASIBILITY STUDIES
Project Sponsor Process Input
Dames and Moore/The Nokota Company Lignite
W.R. Grace <5c Company Axial basin coal
Texas Eastern Synfuels, Inc. New Mexico coal
Placer Am ex, Inc.
Westinghouse Synthetic
Fuels Division (Keystone)
EG & G Synfuels, Inc.
Crow Tribe/Council of
Energy Resources Tribes
Sub-bituminous coal
Pennsylvania bituminous
coal
Bituminous coal
Montana coal
Central Maine Power Company
Philadelphia Gas Works
Celanese Chemical Co., Inc.
Celanese Chemical Co., Inc.
General Refractories Company, Inc.
TRANSCO Energy Company
Union Carbide Corp.
Florida Power Corporation
Clark Oil & Refining Company
The River Plant/Houston Natural
Gas Corporation/Texaco
Hampshire Energy
Bituminous coal
East bituminous coal
Lignite
Texas lignite
West Kentucky coal
Texas lignite
Illinois bituminous coal
Mid-West coal
Illinois No. 6 coal
High Sulfur Illinois
No. 6
Sub-bituminous coal
Arkansas Power & Light
Arkansas & Illinois
No. 6 coal
Process Output
Methanol
Methanol
SNG
Methanol
Creosote
Naphtha
Ammonia
Methanol
Methanol
Methanol
SNG
Naphtha
Ammonia
Creosote
Synthetic gas
290 Btu/scf
fuel gas
Methanol
Electricity
Methanol
Synthetic gas
Synthetic gas
Synthetic gas
Synthetic gas
Unleaded gasoline
Methanol
Raw gas
Gasoline
LPG
Isobutane
Ammonia
co2
Medium Btu gas
66
-------
APPENDIX A-2;
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIX YEAR PLANT
CONSTRUCTION SCENARIO
The Dames and Moore feasibility study was based on a construction period of seven years.
For purposes of the current study, the schedule was compressed to six years by spreading
the small first year effort anticipated by Dames and Moore over the three subsequent
years of construction. Relationships between the Dames and Moore schedule and
that of the current study are described below.
The Dames and Moore study provided the construction employment schedule shown:1
Percentage of Total Employment
Year
Employment
Yearly %
Cumulative %
1985
557
3.3%
3.3%
1986
3186
18.9%
22.2%
1987
4012
23.8%
46.0%
1988
2692
16.0%
62.0%
1989
3643
21.6%
83.6%
1990
2629
15.6%
99.2%
1991
137
.8%
100.0%
100.0%
300.0%
This schedule served as the foundation for the direct construction employment schedule
and for the development of the annual construction bill of goods for the current study.
After compressing the Dames and Moore schedule, the following employment schedule
was developed for the current study:
Percentage of Total Employment
2
Employment
Yearly %
Cumulative %
3500
20.7%
20.7%
4200
24.8%
45.5%
2800
16.5%
62.0%
3700
21.8%
83.8%
2600
15.3%
99.1%
150
.9%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
1Dames and Moore/The Nokota Company, Dunn-Nokota Methanol Project, Dunn County,
North Dakota. Prepared for U.S. Department of Energy, 1983, Vol. VII, p.5-75.
o .
Due to rounding, the current analysis assumes a slightly greater number of employees
than the Dames and Moore study (16,950 per plant compared to 16,856).
67
-------
The materials and services requirements schedule assumes that materials and services
are demanded in approximately the same proportion each year as labor. The following
schedule of construction materials and services requirements (for each plant) was used
in the analysis:
Construction Materials and Services Requirements
Percentage of Total
Requirements, Per Plant
Year
Yearly %
Cumulative %
1
21%
21%
2
25%
46%
3
17%
63%
4
22%
85%
5
15%
100%
6
0%
100%
68
-------
APPENDIX A-3:
flUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS INPUT-OUTPUT
SECTORING PLAN
64
-------
1
z
3
4
5
t
7
8
9
to
11
12
13
«
15
1«
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
APPENDIX A-3
Bureau of Labor Statistics Input-Output
Sectoring Plan
Industry sector number and title
Bureau of
Economic Analysts
Input-Output
Sector
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
1972
Agriculture* forestry, and fisheries
Dairy and poultry products
Meat animals and livestock
Cotton
Food and feed grains....
Agricultural products* n.e.c
Forestry and fishery products
Agricultural* forestry* and -fishery
services
Mining
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining
Copper ore mining
Konferrous metal ores mining* except
copper
Coal mining
Crude petroleum and natural gas
Stone and clay mining and quarryinq
Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining
Maintenance and repair construction
Maintenance and repair construction
Manufacturing
Ordnance.
Complete guided missiles and space vehicles
Meat products.
Dairy products.
Canned and frozen foods
Grain mill products
Bakery products
Sugar
Confectionery products
Alcoholic beverages. . . .
Soft drinks and flavorings
Food products* n.e.c
Tobacco manufacturing
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills
Floor covering mills
Textile mill products* n.e.c
1.01-1.02
1.03
2.01
2.02
2.03-2.07
3.00
4.00
3.00
6.01
4.02
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
12.11-12.02
3.02-13.07
3.01
4.01
4.02-14.06
4.07-14.13
4.14-14.17
4. 18
4. 19
4.20
4.21
4.22-14.23
4.24-14.32
5.01-15.02
6.01-16.04
7.01
7.02-17. 10
pt. 01* pt. 02
pt. 01, pt. 02
pt. 01* pt. 02
pt. 01, pt. 02
pt. 01, pt. 02
08 (except 085), 091, 0971
071* 072, 075* 076* 078, 085, 092
101, 106
102
10 (except 101, 102, 106, pt. 108, 109)
11, 12
13 (except pt. 138)
14 (except H7, pt. 148)
147
pt. 15, pt. 16* pt. 17, pt. 138
348* 3795
3761
201
202
203, 2091-2092
204
205
206 1-2063
2965-2067
208 (except 2086-2087)
2056-2087
207, 209 (except 2091-2092)
21
221-224, 226, 228
227
229
-------
APPENDIX A
Industry sector number and -titla
Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Input-Output
Sector
32 Hosiery and knit goods.
33 Apparel
34 Fabricated textile products* n.e.c
35 logging
36 Sawmills and planing mills
37 Mllluork, plywood and Mood products, n.e.c
38 Wooden containers
39 Household Furniture
40 Furniture and fixtures, except household..
41 Paper products
42 Paperboard
43 Newspaper printing and publishing
44 Periodical and book printing, publishing..
45 Printing and publishing, n.e.c
46 Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals
47 Agricultural chemicals
48 Chemical products, n.e.c
49 Plastic materials and synthetic rubber....
5® Synthetic fibers
5t Drugs
52 Cleaning and toflefc preparations
53 Paints and allied products
-------
APPENDIX A
Industry sector number and title
Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Input-Output
Sector
72
73
74
75
76
77
75
79
e«
at
<3
84
as
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
9*
-,95
«96
97
98
99
109
101
102
103
10*
105
106
107
10S
109
no
m
112
113
114
Fabricated structural metal products
Screw machine products
Natal stampings
Cutlory, handtools and general hardware....
Fabricated natal products, n.e.c
Engines, turbines* and generators ..
Farm machinery
Construction* Mining and oilfield machinery
Material handling equipment
Ileta 1 horking machinery
Special Industry machinery '
General industrial machinery
Nonelectrical Machinery* n.e.c
Computers and peripheral equipment
Typewriters and other office equipment
Service industry machines
Electric transmission equipment
Electrical industrial apparatus
Household appliances
Electric lighting and wiring
Radio and television receiving sets
Telephone and telegraph apparatus
Radio and communication equipment
Electronic components.
Electrical machinery and equipment, n.e.c..
Motor vehicles .
Aircraft
Ship end boat building and repair
Railroad equipment
Motorcycles, bicycles and parts
Transportation equipment, n.e.c
Scientific and controlling instruments
tfedical and dental instruments
Optical and ophthalmic equipment
Photographic equipment and supplies
Hatches* clocks* and clock-operated devices
Jewelry and silverware
Musical instruments and sporting goods.....
Manufactured products* n.e.c. .
Transportation
Railroad transportation
Local transit and intercity buses
Truck transportation
Water transportation
40.04-
41.01
41.02
42.0 J"
42.04-
43.01-
44.00
45.01-
46.01-
47.01-
48.01-
49.01-
50.00
51.01
51.02-
52.01-
53.01-
53.04-
54.01-
55.01-
56.01-
56.03
56.04
57.01-
58.01-
59.01-
60.01-
61.01-
61.03
61.05
61.06-
62.01-
62.04-
63.01-
63.03
62.07
64.01
64.02-
64.05-
65.01
65.02
65.03
65.04
40.09
42.03
42.11
43.02
45.03
46.04
47.04
48.06
49.07
51.04
52.05
53.03
53.08
54.07
55.03
56.02
57.03
58.05
59.03
60.04
61.02
61.07
62.03
62.06
63.02
64.04
64. 12
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
1972
344
345
346 (except 3462-3463)
342
347, 349
35«
352
3531-3533
353 (except 3531-3533)
354
355
356
359
3573-3574
357 (except 3573 and 3574)
358
361, 3825
362
363
364
365
366 I
3662
367
369
371
372* 376 (except 3761)
373
374
375
379 (except 3795)* 2451
381, 382 (except 3825)
384
383* 385
386
387
391, 3961
393* 394
395* 396 (except 3961)* 399 (except 39996)
40, 474* pt. 4789
4 1
42, pt. 4789
44
-------
APPENDIX A
Industry sector number and title
Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Input-Output
Sector
Transportation* contd.
115 Air transportation
116 Pipeline transportation
117 Transportation services
Communications
IIS Radio and television broadcasting
119 Communications# except radio and television
Electric, gas* and sanitary services
120 Electric utilities, public and private
121 Gas utilities* excluding public
122 Hater and sanitary services* excluding
.public
Trade
123 Wholesale trade
124 Eating and drinking places
125 Retail trade# except eating and drinking
places
Finance* Insurance# and Real Estate
126 Banking
127 Credit agencies and financial brokers
128 Insurance
129 OMner occupied real estate..
139 Real estate.....
Other services
131 Hotels and lodging places
132 Personal and repair services
133 Barber and beauty shops
134 Business services* n.e.c....
135 Advertising
13ft Professional services# n.e.c
137 Automobile ropair
138 Motion pictures
139 Amusements and recreation services
140 Doctors' and dentists* services
141 Hospitals
142 Medical services# except hospitals
143 Educational services
144 Monprofit organizations
65.05
65.06
65.07
67.00
66.00
68.01, 78.02, 79.02
68.02
68.03
69.01
74.00
69.02
70.01
70.02-70.03
70.04-70.05
71.01
71.02
72.01, 77.08
72.02
72.03
73.01
73.02
73.03
75.00
76.01
76.02
77.0 I
77.02
77.03
77.04, 77.06-77.07
77.05, 77.09
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
1972
45
46
47 (except 474 and pt. 4789)
483
48 (except 483)
491# pt. 493
492# pt. 493
49 (except 491# 492 and pt. 493)
50, 51
58
52-57# 59, 7396# pt. 8042
60
61# 62# 67
63# 64
65 # 66# pt. 1531
70# 836
72 (except 723# 724). 76 (except 7692,
7694 and pt. 7699)
723. 724
73 (except 731# 7396)# 7692, 7694# pt. 7699
731
81, 89 (except 8922)
75
78
79
801-803# 8041
806
074, 3049, 805, 807-809
82. 833. 835
832. 839, 84. 86. 8922
-------
APPENDIX A-3
Industry sector number and titla
Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Input-Output
Sector
Government enterprises
149
146
147
148
149
159
151
152
153
154
155
156
Post office
Commodity credit corporation
Federal enterprises, n.e.c
Local government passenger transit
State and.local government enterprises#
n.e.c.
Special industries
Noncomparable Imports
Scrap* used and secondhand goods.
Construction industry
Government Industry
Rest of the world Industry
Households
Inventory valuation adjustment...
78.01
78.03
78.04
79.01
79.03
80.00
81.00
na
82.00
83.00
84.00
85.00
Office of Economic Growth*
U.5. Bureau of Labor statistics.
October 18, 1979
( THIS SUPERCEDES PREVIOUS 162 ORDER SECTORING PLAN )
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
1972
43
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
-------
APPENDIX A-4:
DEVELOPMENT OF GOODS AND SERVICES INPUT DATA FOR
PLANT CONSTRUCTION, START-UP, AND OPERATION, IN BLS SECTOR DETAIL
The development of goods and services input data {i.e., bills of goods) for plant construc-
tion, start-up, and operation in BLS sector detail involved the following operations:
1) Determine whether an input listed by Dames and Moore could be assigned
directly to a single BLS sector.
2) If not, collect and apply additional information that enables disaggrega-
tion of the input.
3) Assign BLS codes to all disaggregated inputs.
4) Within each cost category (i.e., construction, start-up, and operating),
develop input totals by BLS sector.
Each of these steps in discussed in further detail below.
A. DETERMINING WHETHER RAW
INPUT DATA REQUIRED DISAGGREGATION
The Dames and Moore study provided materials and services costs separately for plant
construction, start-up, and operation. Within each of the three categories, the study
provided detail on the specific goods purchased. Some goods and services could be
assigned a BLS sector code without further analysis. Examples of these include a
detailed list of chemical and catalyst inputs to start-up and operation, and inputs of
concrete, structural steel, piping, paint, and insulation to plant construction. Other
goods and services listed in the report required further analysis to divide them into
their component BLS sectors. Development of data on the latter category of goods and
services is described below.
75
-------
B. DISAGGREGATING INPUT DATA
When data provided in the Dames and Moore study was not as detailed as that needed
for the current analysis, it was disaggregated using:
1) information made available by the Fluor Corporation, which performed
the plane design study and cost estimation for Dames and Moore, and
2) data available through economic and business publications, and developed
through discussions with trade association personnel.
Documentation of this step of the data development for individual inputs is provided in
the following paragraphs.
1. Plant By-Pass Roads, Water Supply Systems,
Railroads, Electric Transmission Lines, and Buildings
The disaggregation to the BLS sector level of five Dames and Moore inputs to the
construction of a coal-to-methanol plant was accomplished using 1972 Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA) input-output data published in The Detailed Input-Output
Structure of the U.S. Economy: 1972.^ These five inputs were plant by-pass roads,
water supply systems, railroads, electric transmission lines, and buildings.
The disaggregation was performed as follows:
1) Identify the BEA construction industry sector containing the Dames and
Moore input.
2) Convert all BEA input codes to that BEA constrution sector into BLS
input codes using the concordance in Appendix A-3.
3) Use BEA's Detailed Input-Output Structure to identify the resultant ten
BLS sectors with the largest inputs to that construction industry.
bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, The Detailed
Input-Output Structure of the U.S. Economy: 1972, Volume 1, 1979.
76
-------
4} Use weighted averages to assign the total input cast provided by Dames
and Moore to each BLS sector.
In all cases, the ten BLS sectors with the largest inputs amounted to more than 83
percent of total inputs of goods and services to the relevant construction industry.
Thus, this methodology omits demand for goods and services from some sectors, while
somewhat overstating demand for others.
A list of the five BEA construction industry sectors containing these five inputs, to
which this methodology was applied to disaggregate the inputs into ten BLS sectors,
follows below.
Dames and Moore
BEA Construction
BEA Sector
Inputs
Sector
Number
Plant by-pass roads
New highways and streets
11.04
Water supply systems
New water supply facilities
11.0306
Railroads
New railroads
11.0302
Electric Transmission Lines
New electric utility facilities
11.0303
Buildings
New industrial buildings
11.0201
2. Construction Services, Supplies, and Expenses and
Field Staff Subsistence and Expenses
Details on the contents of these two categories of inputs were made available by Fluor
Corporation. According to a Fluor spokesman, approximately $70 million of the $89
million cost of construction services, supplies, and expenses (1981 dollars, purchaser's
prices) is spent on welding rod and oxygen; and the remaining cost is for equipment
maintenance. This analysis assigned $35 million to welding rod and $35 million to
oxygen. Welding rod, oxygen, and equipmen tmaintenance costs were then coded to BLS
sectors.
A similar procedure was used for field staff subsistence and expenses. The Fluor
spokesman confirmed that the $14 million per plant cost associated with this input was
expended in hotels and restaurants, and on car rental (1981 dollars, purchaser's prices).
These sectors were each assigned 55 percent, 15 percent, and 30 percent of the input
cost, respectively.
77
-------
3. Warehouse Spare Parts and
Maintenance Materials
The Dames and, Moore study estimated a pre-operational cost of $61 million per plant
for warehouse spare parts and an operating cost estimate of $29 million for main-
tenance materials (1981 dollars, purchaser's price). In the absence of further informa-
tion these costs were divided among BLS manufacturing sectors in proportion to the
contribution of each sector to the construction cost of the plant. Two sectors
accounted for 62 percent of the cost: General Industrial Machinery (50.3 percent) and
Fabricated Metal Products, nec. (11.6 percent). A list of BLS sectors and the
proportions of the costs of spare parts and maintenance materials assigned to each is
shown in Exhibit A-4a.
A few inputs were assigned BLS sectors without further data development after
consultation with Fluor Corporation or a trade association confirmed that all or most of
the cost could be assigned to a particular BLS category. Examples of inputs in this
category, and the BLS sector to which they were assigned, follow.
Having disaggregated the inputs to BLS sector level detail, each input was then coded
to a BLS sector. The final step in the data development was then to develop input
totals by BLS sector for construction, start-up, and operation. The product was a list
of inputs for each of the three phases of industry development, by BLS sector, in 1981
dollars and purchasers prices.
4. Other Inputs
Input
Temporary Construction Buildings
Excavation
Machinery and Equipment
Instruments
Mobile Equipment
BLS Sector
72
13
83
103
80
C. ASSIGNING BLS CODES TO DISAGGREGATED
INPUTS AND DEVELOPING TOTALS BY SECTOR
78
-------
EXHIBIT A-4a:
PROPORTION OF COSTS OF
WAREHOUSE SPARE PARTS AND MAINTENANCE
MATERIALS ASSIGNED TO EACH BLS SECTOR
BLS Sector
83
76
103
61
91
72
46
65
69
80
64
S3
66
75
40
53
Percent of Total
50.3%
11.6%
5.9%
5.3%
4.6%
4.4%
4.2%
3.6%
2.8%
1.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.1%
0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
79
-------
APPENDIX A-5;
DEVELOPMENT OF INPUT DATA IN PRODUCERS1 PRICES
The interindustry activity model within the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Economic
Growth Model System is an input-output model that lists the flows of goods and services
among industry sectors, and to final demand. When coupled with the BLS labor demand
model, the interindustry model can be used to translate changes in demand into changes
in employment. These changes in demand, however, must be expressed in producers'
prices, since the flows in the model are in producers' prices.
The plant cost data in the Dames and Moore report are given in purchasers' prices. The
difference between BLS producers' prices and the Dames and Moore prices is made up
of three components:
• transportation margins,
• wholesale trade margins, and
• state and local excise taxes
These components must be subtracted from the Dames and Moore purchasers1 prices to
yield the producers' prices required by the BLS model. Discussion of the development of
data on each component follows.
A. TRANSPORTATION MARGINS
The development of the transportation margins was a two-step process, as follows:
1) identify the total transportation margin associated with each input; and
2) assign portions of the total transportation margin to individual transpor-
tation sectors (e.g.; truck, rail, air, etc.).
The source of data for both steps was Jack Faucett Associates' Multi-Regional
Input-Output (MRIO) model of the U.S. economy.1 This model, which identifies flows
1Jack Faucett Associates. The Multiregional Input-Output Accounts, 1977. U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, July 1983.
80
-------
of goods and services in purchasers' prices, contains data on the transportation margin
included in purchasers' prices, by economic sector.
The changing of purchasers' prices into producers' prices began by first coding all inputs
to an MRIO sector. For each MRIO sector identified, the ratio between the MRIO's
transportation margin and total production (in purchasers' prices) for that sector was
calculated. This was then multiplied by the Dames and Moore purchasers' price for that
input to yield the transportation margin for that input. This method was employed to
calculate the total transportation margin for all sectors in either the construction or
operation bills of goods.
MRIO data on the amount of the transportion margin accounted for by each transpor-
tation industry was then used to assign the margins to individual sectors. The ratio
between each transportion industry's share and the total transportation margin, as listed
in the MRIO by sector, was applied to the transportation margin calculated for each
input. The total transportion margin for each sector was thus assigned to each of the
following transportation industries:
• rail,
• for hire trucks,
• water,
• air transportation, and
• pipeline.
Costs within each of the five transportation industries were coded to BLS sectors and
summed. The result was a list of the total inputs of transportation from five
transportation industries for plant construction, start-up, and operation.
B. WHOLESALE TRADE MARGINS
The development of data on wholesale trade margins was accomplished using the same
methodology as for transportion margins. The source of data was Jack Faucett
Associates' Multi-Regional Input-Output model. First, all inputs to plant construction,
start-up, and operation were coded to MRIO sectors. The ratio between the MRIO
wholesale margin and total production for each sector (in purchasers' prices) was then
calculated and applied to the purchasers' price of the input to plant construction or
81
-------
operation for that sector. The product was a list of wholesale trade margins by sector,
which were summed to produce separate wholesale trade margins for plant
construction, start-up, and operation.
C. STATE AND LOCAL EXCISE TAXES
Like the transportation and wholesale trade margin data, the source of information on
state and local excise taxes was Jack Faucett Associates' Multi-Regional Input-Output
model. Data and documentation in the MRIO were used to identify the coal-to-
rn ethanol plant input sectors subject to state and local excise taxes. Only one such
sector was identified: BLS sector 120, Electric Utilities (MRIO Sector 094). State and
local excise taxes of $2,480.9 million were associated with the electric utility industry's
total production of $66,242 million. The ratio between these two was calculated
(0.0375) and applied to inputs from the electric utility industry. The resulting amounts
($105,000 for plant start-up and $185,000 per year for operation) are treated as
wholesale margins.
D. SUBTRACTION OF MARGINS FROM THE
PURCHASERS' PRICES FOR INPUTS
The final step in the adjustment of the Dames and Moore input data from purchasers'
prices to producers' prices was to subtract the transportation margins and wholesale
margins (including state and local excise taxes) from the purchasers' prices for each
input. The remainder was the producers' price of the input. Transportation and
wholesale margins were then summed for construction, start-up, and operation. These
totals were also included in the list of construction, operation, or start-up inputs to the
plant, since employment is also associated with these sectors.
82
-------
APPENDIX A-6:
DEFLATION OF PRODUCERS' PRICES
FROM 1981 TO 1972 DOLLARS
The BLS industry activity model is based on 1972 values for goods and services. The
cost data in the Dames and Moore report are in 1981 dollars. BLS provided deflators
for adjusting the 1981 dollars to 1972 dollars. A list of these deflators is attached.
83
-------
BLS
Sector
010
013
037
040
046
647
048
049
053
054
061
064
065
066
067
069
APPENDIX A-6: (Continued)
DEFLATORS FOR CHANGING 1981 PRODUCER PRICES TO
1972 PRODUCER PRICES BY BLS SECTOR
Deflation
Adjustment
Factor
3.845
1.687
1.887
2.149
3.648
3.193
2.434
3.026
1.790
6.829
2.238
2.790
2.808
2.517
1.794
3.056
BLS
Sector
Deflation
Adjustment
Factor
BLS
Sector
072
2.391
124
075
2.142
125
076
2.136
131
080
2.223
134
083
2.353
136
089
1.914
137
091
2.150
103
1.935
111
2.091
113
2.129
114
2.190
115
2.153
116
4.445
120
2.519
122
2.117
123
1.957
84
-------
APPENDIX A-7:
DEVELOPMENT OF DATA ON
INPUTS OF COAL TO
PLANT OPERATION
Each coal-to-methanol plant is assumed to consume 25,000 tons of coal per day to
produce 85,000 barrels per day of methanol. In addition, each plant is assumed to
stockpile coal for four years prior to commencing operation. Thus, stockpiling begins in
the second year of construction at 20 percent of the annual operating consumption, and
increases each year according to the schedule below:
Demand for Coal
.1
Percentage of Full
Year Operating Demand
1 0%
2 20%
3 +11%
4 60%
5 HD%
Remaining Veers
to 1995 100%
The resultant annual coal demand, in tons, is listed in Exhibit A-7a.
The development of cost data on the demand for coal is necessary so that the BLS
interindustry model and the BLS labor demand model can be used to estimate the level
of employment required to deliver the coal demanded in each year from 1986 through
1995. The development of this cost data proceeded as follows. First, the 1972 price of
o
coal was determined to be $8.44 per ton (purchasers' price). Jack Faucett Associates
Multi-Regional Input-Output model was then used to estimate transportation and
wholesale trade margins. In the MRIO, 1.72 percent of the purchasers' price of coal is
accounted for by wholesale margins and 7.5 percent by transportation margins as
follows:
*The year "1" is the first year of plant construction. Year 6 is the first year of plant
operation.
2U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Coal Data: A
Reference. October 1982, p. 56.
85
-------
Transportation Margins
Mode Percent of Purchasers' Price
For-Hire Truck 2.07%
Rail 4.83%
Water .60%
These proportions were applied to the purchasers' price per ton of coal, yielding the
following:
Summary of Purchasers1 and Producers' Prices for Coal
Purchasers' Price: $8.44/ton
Less:
Wholesale Margin: (.146/ton)
For-Hire Truck Margin: (.175/ton)
Railroad Margin: (.408/ton)
Water Margin: (.051/ton)
Producers' Price: $7.66/ton
The producers' price of coal, per ton, and the inputs per ton for the margin sectors were
multiplied by the schedule of demand for coal shown in Exhibit A-7a. The resulting bill
of goods for coal is shown in Exhibit A-7b. It is this bill of goods that is used to
estimate coal-related employment.
86
-------
EXHIBIT A-7a:
TONS OP COAL CONSUMED PER YEAR
1986-1995
(Millions of Tons)
^^sYEAR
PLANTSSss^
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Plants 1-6
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 7-12
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 13-18
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 19-24
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
54.75
Plants 25-30
10.95
21.90
32.85
43.80
54.75
54.75
Total
10.95
32.85
65.70
109.50
164.25
208.05
240.90
262.80
273.75
273.75
-------
EXHIBIT A-7bt
BILL OF GOODS, FOR COAL. BY BLS SECTOR
1986-1995
(thousands of 1972 dollars, producers' prices)
1
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4
O.Q
0.0
Q.Q
Q.Q
Q.O
0.0
Q.Q
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.Q
8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
tl
83B77.0
251669.0
503262.0
838770.0
1258155.0
1593633.0
1845294.0
2013048.0
2096925.0
2096925.0
12
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
H
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
d .o
17
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Q.O
0.0
0.0
19
Q.O
0.0
0.0
Q.Q
Q.Q
Q.Q
Q.Q
Q.O
Q.Q
O.Q
20
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
21
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
26
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
27
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
28
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
29
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.Q
0.0
0.0
31
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
33
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
34
0.0
Q.O
Q.Q
Q.Q
0.0
Q.O
Q.O
Q.Q
O.Q
0.0
35
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
36
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
37
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
38
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
39
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
40
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
41
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
42
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
43
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
44
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
45
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
46
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
47
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
48
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49
0.0
Q.O
Q.Q
Q.O
Q.Q
0.0
Q.O
0.0
Q.O
0.0
-------
EXHIBIT A-7bt
BILL OF GOODS. FOR COAL, BY BLS SECTOR
1986-1995
(Continued)
-------
EXHIBIT A-7b:
BILL OF GOODS, FOR COAL, BY BLS SECTOR
1986-1995
(Continued)
99
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.e
100
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
101
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
102
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
103
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
104
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
105
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
106
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
107
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
108
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
109
0.0
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
110
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
111
4468.0
13403.0
26806.0
44676.0
67014.0
84884.0
98287.0
107222.0
111690.0
111690.0
112
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
113
1916.0
5749.0
11498.0
19163.0
28744.0
36409.0
42158.0
45990.0
47906.0
47906.0
11*
558.0
1675.0
3351.0
5585.0
8377.0
10611.0
12286.0
13403.0
13961.0
13961.0
115
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
116
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
117
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
118
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
f 19
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
120
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
121
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
122
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
123
1599.0
4796.0
9592.0
15987.0
23981.0
30375.0
35171.0
38369.0
39968.0
39968.0
124
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
125
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
126
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
127
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
128
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
129
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.p
130
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
131
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
132
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
133
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
134
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
135
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
136
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
137
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
138
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
148
o.e
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
141
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
142
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
143
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
144
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
145
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
146
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
147
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
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EXHIBIT A-7b;
BILL OF GOODS. FOR COAL. BY BLS SECTOR
1986-1995
(Continued)
148
149
159
151
152
153
154
155
156
SUMS
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.Q
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
92418.0
277292.0
554509.0
924181.0
1586271.0
1755912.0
2033196.0
2218032.0
2310450.0
2310450.0
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APPENDIX A-8:
ESTIMATION OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
FROM 1985 TO 2020
In order to estimate the total employment supported by the methanol industry and
several alternative projects of similar scope, it was first necessary to estimate total
expenditures (in 1981 dollars) in the methanol industry between 1985 and 2020. This
amount equals the sum of all expenditures on methanol plant construction and
operation, including capital investment between 1985 and 1994 ($91.2 billion); start-up
and operating costs between 1985 and 1994 ($16.5 billion); the cost of coal between
1986 and 1994 ($41.1 billion); and the annual cost of operating the 30 plants in each year
between 1995 and 2020 ($11.4 billion per year).1 Thus, the total expenditure on the
methanol industry is estimated to be $445.4 billion between 1985 and 2020.
Methanol Industry Total Employment
Total employment supported by the methanol industry between 1985 and 2020 equals
the estimated total employment through 1995 (4,870,583 jobs) plus projected employ-
ment in each year after 1995. Annual methanol-related employment for each year
after 1995 is projected to be 99 percent of total employment in the previous year. This
employment deflator reflects an estimated 2 percent annual improvement in direct and
indirect labor productivity between 1995 and 2020 for the industry, and an estimated 1
percent annual increase in the total employment multiplier associated with direct and
2
indirect methanol-related employment.
Defense Expenditures
Total employment supported by $445.4 billion in defense expenditures between 1985 and
2020 was calculated using employment estimates per $1 billion (1981 dollars) of
expenditure reported by the Congressional Budget Office in Defense Spending and the
Economy (February 1983). These estimates were 27,778 jobs per billion dollars (1981
dollars) expended on general defense purchases; and 23,333 jobs per billion dollars
expended on defense purchases from industry. Total employment supported by these
types of expenditures equals the product of each factor and $445.4 billion.
''Dames and Moore/The Nokota Company, Dunn-Nokota Methanol Project. Prepared for
U.S. Department of Energy, Volumes I-Vin, 1983.
O
These rates of change are estimated from the results of this study, and are specific
hereto. For other sectors considered in the following sections, it is assumed,
conservatively, that changes in productivity proceed at the same rate as changes in the
total employment multiplier, effectively keeping annual total employment constant for
every $1 billion expended over the period from 1985 through 2020.
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Power Plants
Total employment supported by the expenditure of $445.4 billion on power plants
consists of employment supported by the expenditure of $91.2 billion on the construc-
tion of power plants, and employment supported by the expenditure of $354.2 billion on
their output (BLS Sector 120). Construction employment was estimated by multiplying
the total labor requirements factor for powerhouse construction in Exhibit IV-3 (19,800
direct and indirect jobs per $1 billion) by 1.5 to include induced employment1, and then
multiplying by $91.2 billion. Operating-related employment was estimated by deflating
total expenditures of $354.2 billion (1981 dollars) by 2.519 to obtain expenditures of
$140.6 billion (1972 dollars), multiplying by 40,886 (direct and indirect employment per
$1 billion (1972 dollars) expended in BLS Sector 120) , and multiplying by 1.5 to include
induced employment. Summing these employment estimates yields an estimate of total
employment between 1985 and 2020.
Aircraft
Employment supported by the expenditure of $445.4 billion on aircraft was divided into
employment supported by the expenditure of $91.2 billion on aircraft manufacture (BLS
Sector 98), and employment supported by the expenditure of $354.2 billion on air
transportation services (BLS Sector 115). Manufacturing-supported employment was
calculated by deflating the total expenditure of $91.2 billion to $37.4077 billion (1972
dollars, using the BLS price deflator of 2.438), multiplying by 68,249 (equivalent to the
BLS estimate of 68.249 jobs per $1 million (1972 dollars) expended in BLS Sector 98) ,
and multiplying by 1.5 to include induced employment. Total employment supported by
the expenditure of $354.2 billion on air transportation services was estimated similarly,
using a BLS price deflator of 2.153, and employment factor of 52,892 jobs per $1 billion
(1972 dollars)4 expended, and the adjustment factor of 1.5 to include induced
employment. Summing these components yielded total employment.
A multiplier of 1.5 implies that one induced job is created for every 2 direct and/or
indirect jobs supported by the activity. This is a conservative estimate, and it is
equivalent to the total employment multiplier for 1985 in the methanol industry
analysis. This multiplier was used in several of the sectors discussed in this section as
independently-derived multipliers were not available.
2
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished data, 1984.
3Ibid.
4Ibid.
93
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Hospitals
Employment supported by the expenditure of $445.4 billion on hospitals was divided into
employment supported by the expenditure of $91.2 billion on hospital construction, and
employment supported by the expenditure of $354.2 billion on hospital services (BLS
Sector 141). Employment supported by the construction of hospitals was estimated by
inflating the total labor requirements factor for hospital construction (16,700 jobs per
$1 billion) in Exhibit 1V-3 by 1.5 to include induced employment, and then multiplying by
$91.2 billion. Operating-related employment was estimated by deflating 1981 dollar
expenditures of $354.2 billion to 1972 dollars ($135.1 billion) using the BLS price
deflator of 2.621, multiplying by 115,405 (equivalent to the BLS estimate of 115.405
jobs per $1 million (1972 dollars) expended on final demand in BLS Sector 141)*, and
multiplying by 1.5 to include induced employment. Summing these two components
yields total employment supported by the expenditure of $445.4 billion on the
construction and operation of hospitals between 1985 and 2020.
Public Service Employment
Employment supported by the expenditure of $445.4 billion on public service employ-
2
ment was estimated using the results of a Congressional Budget Office report. This
study concluded that the expenditure of $1 billion (1975 dollars) on public service
employment would create 90,000 to 150,000 net jobs. After using the government
purchases deflator to translate to 1981 dollars, this result suggests that the expenditure
of $1 billion (1981 dollars) on public service employment will ultimately result in an
average of 75,227 jobs. Thus, the expenditure of $445.4 billion (1981 dollars) on public
service employment between 1985 and 2020 should create approximately 33.5 million
jobs.
Comparability of These Estimates
Although every effort was made to develop comparable estimates of the level of total
employment supported by the expenditure of $445.4 billion dollars in the above sectors
*U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished data 1984.
^Congressional Budget Office, Temporary Measures to Stimulate Employment: An
Evaluation of Some Alternatives, September 2, 1975.
94
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between 1985 and 2020, the results should be considered to be order of magnitude
values rather than precise estimates. Differences in the assumptions, models, and
methodologies underlying the original analyses on which these projections are based, as
well as the period of performance of the original studies, make it impossible to assure
that these estimates are directly comparable. Consequently, the reader should not
draw definitive conclusions from these figures about the employment potential of one
project versus another project.
95
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