EPA-420- R-79-102
FR-1451-EPA
COST AND ECONOMIC IMPACT
ANALYSIS OF THE. PROPOSED NO* STANDARDS
fOR SELECTED AIRCRAFT ENGINES
C.F. Day
A Fir.dl Retort
Prepared for
UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Under Contract
68-01-4818
August 1979
J. Watson Noah, Inc.
RESEARCH . ENGINEERING - ECONOMICS
ONE SKYLINE PLACE
5203 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 510
FALLS CHURCH. VIRGINIA 22DAI
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO. 2.
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Economic Impact of Gaseous Emission Standard for
Selected Aircraft Engines
S. REPORT GATE
Auqust 1979
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHORIS)
Cornelius F. Uay
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME ANO ADDRESS
J. Watson Noah, Inc.
5205 Leesburg kike
Falls Church, VA 22041
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO
68-01-4818
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME ANO ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Economics Analysis Division
401 M Street
Washington, DC 20460
13. TYPE OF REPORT ANO PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
This report examines the impact of removing the 20,00u pound thrust threshold tor
commercial engine NOx standards promulgated in the draft NPRM. ihe study concludes
that no lb-22,000 pound engines now in production or planned can meet the revised
NOx standards and that the staged combustion technology used on larger engines will
not lead to commercially acceptable low emission cannular engines. The new standard,
if implemented for engines of this class, would stop production of the JT8 engine
including its refanned versions with a subsequent significant adverse impact on
Pratt and Whitney aircraft and aircraft producers. The lack of new JT8-powered,
small transport aircraft would inhibit the ability of U.b. Airlines to serve small
and medium sized communities.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a DESCRIPTORS
b. IDENTIFIERS/CffEN ENDED TERMS
c COSATl Held/Group
Aircraft Engines
Airlines
Gaseous tmissions
13 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Unlimited
i
19 SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Unclassified
21 NO OF PAGES
20 SECURITY CiASS (This page)
Unclassified
22 PRICE
EPA Form 2220-> (9-73)
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CONTENTS
Chapter Page
I. INTRODUCTION - 1
II. SUMMARY OF RESULTS AND
CONCLUSIONS 3
Utilization of and Requirement
for Small Transports 3
Competitors to the JT8 5
DC-9/707 Re-engining 5
Post 1984 Market for JT8 Aircraft 6
Technology Issues 6
Economic Impacts 6
III. AIRLINE ENVIRONMENT FOR 1979 AND
BEYOND - 8
IV. MARKET POTENTIAL FOR SHORT/
MEDIUM-HAUL TRANSPORTS 12
Aviation Industry Structure 12
Stage Lengths Flown by Small/
Medium Transports j 23
Post-1984 Market 24
V. LOW NOx ENGINES IN THE 15-22
THOUSAND POUND THRUST RANGE 31
Potential New Aircraft Programs 32
Low NOx Potential of Candidate
Engines 32
VI. POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS 35
APPENDIX A - 105 Airport Sample Data
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LIST OF TABLES
Number Page
1 Departures By Type From Each Airport Class 14
2 Carrier By Class 16
3 Enplanements By Carrier Type And Airport Class 17
4 Passenger And Seat Data By Airport Class 18
5 Operations Summary For Sample Airports 22
6 Breakdown Of Stage Lengths Flown Two-Engine
Regular Body Aircraft 25
7 Breakdown Of Stage Lengths 727 - 100/200
Aircraft 26
8 Small/Medium Transport Fleet 28
9 Estimated Aircraft In Fleet At Year End 29
10 Retirements And Additions To Fleet 30
LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
1 Aircraft Usage At Sample Airports 20
i l
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
This report, prepared by J. Watson Noah, Inc. {JWN), is intended to
supplement the economic impact analysis performed by Logistics Management
Institute (LMI) and made a part of the record in their report entitled
"The Economic Impact of Revised Gaseous Emission Regulations for
Commercial Aircraft Engines" dated January, 1978. The LMI study was
based on the draft NPRM, which included a 20,000 pound thrust threshold
for the proposed 1984 standards. Subsequently, the NPRM was modified to
eliminate the threshold, but at a date too late for LMI consideration.
The major issue concerning the threshold centers on the JT8 engine
and its refanned 200 series derivative. There are more aircraft in the
U.S. airline fleet which use the JT8 than all other types of aircraft
combined. Moreover, in 1978, 316 aircraft using the standard JT8 and 27
aircraft using the refanned version were ordered from U.S. producers;
this compares to 278 aircraft with other engines. Thus, the JT8 engine
is the most popular commercial jet engine ever produced. The backlog of
aircraft orders on hand insures that aircraft using the JT8 will be in
production through the middle 1980s and perhaps beyond. In addition, the
refanned version is being used on a newly developed entry into the
short/medium haul market, the DC-9-80.
The Rolls-Royce Spey engine is also impacted by the elimination of
the threshold. The engine is in limited production and is used on two
available commercial aircraft (BAC-111 and F-28) and one general aviation
jet (Gulf-Stream 2 and 3). There are no outstanding orders from U.S.
airlines for either commercial transport and the Gulfstream application
is exempt from the proposed regulations. The potential impact on the
Spey is, therefore, not a major issue.
The major technical issue, as it was for larger engines, is the
status of low NOx technology for the JT8. A Vorbix-type combustor was
rig tested under NASA sponsorship and showed promise of reducing NOx
emission. No engine tests were conducted and the NASA JT8 program was
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terminated. At best, therefore, a low NOx JT8 is well behind the larger
engines in development and it is doubtful that a low NOx engine could be
developed by 1984, even with a 100 percent success program.
There are no existing competitors to the JT8 in the 15-17 thousand
pound thrust range. The 209 version, used on the DC-9-80, is rated at
less than 20,000 pounds, but has growth potential well beyond. Douglas
and several airlines are considering a growth version of the DC-9-80 that
would utilize such an engine.
Once past 20,000 pounds, there is an alternative to the JT8 — the
CFM 56 currently rated at 22,000 pounds. Moreover, Rolls-Royce is
considering the RB 432, an 18,000 pound engine still in the pre-
development stage.
Because of the technological uncertainties, the analysis includes an
examination of how aircraft powered by the JT8 are used by airlines; and
it examines the potential market for current production aircraft. A
largely qualitative economic analysis is included. Pratt and Whitney
Aircraft, producer of the JT8, declined to supply cost estimates for use
in this study. This decision, based on what the company perceived as
good and sufficient reasons which need not be detailed here, made
estimates of the cost-of-compliance virtually impossible with any degree
of precision. JWN believes that the Vorbix technology cannot be applied
to JT8-type engines and that an entirely new development program would be
necessary to develop a low-NOx JT8. Because of the uncertainty of
applicable technology, the chances of successful development, the time
required, and the costs of implementation, JWN opted for a qualitative
economic analysis.
Pending changes in noise regulations, brought about through
regulatory action or legislation already introduced, could make the 1984
gaseous emission standards for JT8 engines a moot question. The
proposals would require all newly manufactured aircraft, registered in
the U.S., to meet Stage 3 noise standards, an apparent impossibility for
current production JT8 aircraft. The DC-9-80 would, however, meet such
standards. JWN has not considered potential changes in noise standards
since this analysis is concerned with gaseous emissions.
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CHAPTER 2
SUMMARY OF RESULTS ANO CONCLUSIONS
UTILIZATION OF AND REQUIREMENT FOR SMALL TRANSPORTS
The majority of cities receiving jet airline service are and will
continue to be highly dependent on JT8 aircraft. An analysis of CAB
statistics on departures for the 12 months ending September 30, 1978
shows, for example, that 95 percent of all departures made by 707/DC-8
and larger aircraft occur at the 50 busiest airports. Conversely, jet
operations at small airports (in terms of departures and passengers) are
almost exclusively two-engined JT8 or Spey aircraft.
Many small airports receive a mixture of jet and turboprop service.
The local service carriers (who operate all of the two-engine turboprops
in airline service) are phasing the aircraft out of their inventory.
An analysis of more than 100 small to medium sized airports
(50-400,000 passengers per year) showed that airlines tailor the aircraft
used on a route to demand. Aircraft size (in terms of seats) decreased
as passengers decreased and the ratio of passengers to seats-offered
remained relatively constant except at airports with less than 100,000
annual passengers.
Trunk airlines dominate the industry in terms of passengers carried
and*passenger-miles produced. These airlines operated all of the large
jets in passenger service until recently. Local service airlines operate
small jet transports and turboprops and serve most of the small air-
ports. Intrastate carriers, or at least the ones operating jets, use JT8
aircraft exclusively and aggressively exploit the short-haul markets they
serve.
These distinctions are becoming somewhat blurred as a result of the
Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. While fostering competition through
ease of entry by qualified carriers into new markets, the Act guarantees
service to cities now receiving service for the next ten years. Air-
lines, therefore, cannot abandon cities unless or until a replacement
carrier is found. Subsidy support will be available if required.
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The full impact of deregulation cannot be measured at this time but
some of the cities in the JWN sample are receiving greatly reduced
service (flight frequency). To date, those cities losing airline service
have been added to the growing list of cities with commuter service
only. It is unclear, however, that commuters provide a quality of
service in terms of comfort, travel time and interline services that
airlines provide. Thus, it is questionable that commuters, flying the
types of aircraft available to them at this time, can serve as replace-
ment carriers at all airports in the future.
Scheduled flights to a sample of large and small airports as shown in
the August 1977 Official Airline Guide were analyzed to develop a
frequency distribution of stage lengths flown by JT8 (and Spey) air-
craft. When stage lengths were tabulated by hundred increments, the 727
was found to have a relatively uniform distribution of stage lengths from
less than 100 miles up to about 800 miles. The distribution for two-
engined aircraft was definitely skewed to the short stage lengths with
both median and modal values of the distribution less than the mean.
The pattern of stage lengths, which can be expected to continue if
smaller communities get jet service, indicates that aircraft cost per
mile flown is an important determinant in assigning aircraft to small
city routes. Cost per seat mile, which is controlling for high density
routes, is an improper measure when the potential passenger loads will
not produce breakeven load factors.
This reasoning explains, at least in part, why the airlies continue
to order JT8 aircraft, even though these aircraft will have higher seat
mile costs than the new generation of aircraft being offered. They will,
of course, produce valuable revenues in the period before the new air-
craft are available. No airline can, on the other hand, invest in an
asset having a 15 to 20 year economic life merely to fill a short-term
capacity requirement. It is apparent, therefore, that JT8 aircraft will
be operating through the 1980s and into the 1990s.
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COMPETITORS TO THE JT8
There are no competitive engines for the standard JT8 (in the 15-17
thousand pound range). Rolls-Royce is considering the RB 432, (18,000
pounds) but full-scale development has not been approved. A five-year
program would be required after approval before the engine would be ready
for use.
The CFM 56, currently rated at 22,000 pounds, is competitive with the
JT8-200 series. The JT8-209 is rated at less than 20,000 pounds, but
growth versions greater than 20,000 are being discussed.
The CFM 56, a modern high bypass ratio engine, is cleaner, quieter
and more fuel efficient than the 0T8-200 series. It also weighs more,
has a larger diameter and is considerably more expensive, both to buy and
to maintain. Choice between the two engines, on economic grounds,
depends upon how these opposing factors are balanced for the particular
applicat ion.
DC-8/707 RE-ENGINING
The CFM 56 seems to have won the competition for re-engining these
four-engined aircraft. Noise regulations require that they be either
modified to comply or phased out by 1985.
United Airlines recently announced its choice of the CFM 56 for re-
engining some of its DC-8 Series 60 aircraft. Other operators who opt to
re-engine are likely to follow suit because the development and certifi-
cation costs associated with the engine change are too great to allow an
alternative engine.
No 707 re-engining program has been announced. Boeing and CFM
International will, however, certify a new 707 utilizing the engine.
Thus, much of the hardware required for the engine-airframe match will
have been developed. It seems unlikely, therefore, that operators
choosing to re-engine the 707 would select the JT8-200 series engine.
5
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POST 1984 MARKET FOR JT8 AIRCRAFT
A small but continuing market for current production JT8 aircraft
(727, 737, DC-9) will exist in the period 1984 to 1990. A strong market
for new technology, medium-haul transports is expected to exist. The JT8
powered DC-9-80 is an active candidate for the narrow body portion of
this market.
Based on inputs from industry, JWN estimates that the potential
market for current production aircraft in the U.S. is 10-12 aircraft per
year. The market for new technology aircraft is about 85 aircraft per
year. Both figures represent U.S. sales. Overseas sales could increase
these totals significantly.
TECHNOLOGY ISSUES
JWN does not believe that any of the engines discussed will meet the
1984 standards. Although Vorbix-type combustors for the JT8 were rig-
tested under NASA sponsorship, no engine tests were conducted and active
development of a low NOx combustor was suspended. The rig tests of
individual combustor cans (the JT8 is arranged in a ring around the
engine core, hence the term can-annular engine) showed a significant
reduction in NOx emissions. No engine tests (with a complete set of nine
burner cans) were conducted, although originally scheduled because NASA
believed that the market for JT8 engines would be very small by the time
the Vorbix technology could be introduced. In our judgement, staged
combustors of the type rig tested in the NASA JT8 program are not tech-
nically or economically feasible for a can-annular engine. The diffi-
culties in matching the outputs of nine staged combustors with the input
requirements of the engine turbine section are formidable. Moreover, the
technology was far from proven in the NASA program because these are vast
differences between engine components demonstrated in rigs tested and
those that will be commercially acceptable in a production engine. A new
development program based on other technologies might lead to a low NOx
6
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engine but the cost of such a program could make the engine too expensive
for its potential market.
The CFM 56, although close, does not meet the 1984 standards and GE
reported no technology on hand to reduce emissions further. Rolls-Royce
is including a staged combustor in the RB 432 program. Based on the
difficulties the producers are having with their larger engines, there is
no guarantee that the engine will qualify.
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
There will be a continuing requirement for small, short/medium-haul
transports after 1984. The airlines have a large inventory of such
aircraft and limited replacements will be required between 1984-1990.
The 1984 standards, applied to the JT8, would however:
o Eliminate the JT8 from production, resulting in a substantial
adverse impact on Pratt and Whitney and on employment in the
Connecticut Valley.
o Cause the DC-9-80 program to be terminated prematurely with the
consequent loss of unrecovered development funds and competitive
position to Douglas Aircraft Corporation.
o Increase the cost of serving small and medium communities and
increase the subsidies required.
o Cause losses to aircraft producers through lost sales of current
production aircraft. This coupled with the termination of the
DC-9-80 program would have a serious adverse impact on Douglas,
Long Beach.
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CHAPTER 3
AIRLINE ENVIRONMENT FOR 1979 AND BEYOND
During 1978, airlines experienced continued growth in demand rivaling
the rates achieved in the late 1960s. While margins declined as a result
of partial deregulation, profits were excellent. New airplanes became
available to the airlines when Boeing launched its first all new aircraft
in more than a decade with the wide body 767 and the narrow body 757
series. The other U.S. producers were, along with Boeing, offering
derivative versions of existing models including, of course, the
previously launched DC-9-80. In Europe, the A 300 and A 310 programs
were prospering and new aircraft such as the HS 146, JET 1 and JET were
under consideration. Engine manufacturers had responded to these actual
or potential new aircraft programs by proposing a variety of clipped fan
derivatives of existing engines or all new engines such as the JT 10 and
the RB 432.
Two factors have added uncertainties to predictions concerning the
future. The first, the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, is viewed
variously as a threat or an opportunity for sustaining substantial
growth. The second, escalating fuel price and potential shortages of
fuel, clouds not only the economics of future operations, but also the
very ability to capture the potential demand for air travel.
The Deregulation Act had the immediate effect of easing entry by
qualified carriers into new markets and called for complete deregulation
by 1983, when the regulatory functions of the CAB would cease. Some
analysts view deregulation as a threat to airline stability since
protected markets will be gone by 1983 or earlier. It seems clear that
the intent of the Act is to foster competition and to encourage entry
into new markets by both new and existing carriers. Other analysts view
competition as an opportunity whereby the airlines can increase the
efficiency of air transportation and provide service at even more
attractive prices.
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Ease of entry also implies ease of exit from existing markets. The
Act provides protection to those smaller communities who have had, but
might lose, air service. Such communities are guaranteed service over a
ten-year period with some subsidy payments available. The full impli-
cations of the guaranteed service provisions are not clear at this time.
To date, air carrier service has been replaced by commuter service. It
is not clear, however, that such replacements reflect quality of service
considerations, or that commuter substitution for carrier service will be
acceptable for all future cases.
Fuel shortages will, of course, inhibit an airline's ability to
exploit new market opportunities or to meet increasing demand in existing
markets. Fuel price escalation may change the economics of aircraft-
route structure pairings and alter the cost balance between old and new
aircraft -- the new aircraft have definite fuel economy advantages on a
seat-mile basis.
All of these factors -- surging demand, new aircraft and engine
programs, deregulation and fuel problems — affect the economic impacts
associated with emission standards for commercial engines of less than
20,000 pounds thrust. The fact of the matter is that airlines have been
ordering aircraft powered by JT8s in large numbers. Some, but by no
means all, of these orders were placed to add capacity before next-
generation aircraft are available. It is significant to note, however,
that the United Airlines order which assured launching of the 767 program
also included a substantial number (30) of 727 aircraft.
Boeing booked more firm orders for new aircraft in 1978 than any
previous year -- a total of 480. This total included orders for 146 737
aircraft -- a single-year record -- and 131 727 aircraft. With these new
orders and presently planned production rates, the 727 is sold out until
1981.
The boom in travel continues. Trunk airlines carried 13% more
passengers in 1978 than in 1977, and passenger miles increased more than
14%. The increases for local service carriers were even higher -- 16%
for passengers and 22% for passenger miles. Ton-miles produced by
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all-cargo carriers (Airlift Internation, Flying Tiger and Seaboard)
increased by more than 23%, while the major intrastate carriers (Air
California, Air Florida, PSA and Southwest) increased both passengers and
passenger miles by more than 18%.
Trunk traffic in the first quarter of 1979 jumped 20% over the same
quarter for 1978 -- a total of 8.3 billion additional passenger miles.
This is more than double the predicted traffic increase and may reflect,
at least in part, some initial effects of deregulation. It is, of
course, difficult to judge with precision what the impact of deregulation
will be. The various airlines seem to be adopting different approaches.
Some results are already apparent. All of the intrastate airlines
are now offering interstate service -- the California-based carriers to
Reno and Las Vegas, Texas-based Southwest to New Orleans, and Air Florida
from several northeast cities to Florida points. World Airlines, a
supplemental carrier, is offering low-priced, scheduled service between
Washington and New York and the West Coast.
The distinction between trunks and local service carriers is becoming
less clear as the local service carriers are flying longer stage lengths
and offering more non-stop service between larger cities. Moreover,
local service carriers are phasing out their two-engined turbo-prop
(2ETP) aircraft and adding 727s to their fleets. The 2ETP total in the
fleet dropped from 142 at the end of 1977 to 88 in 1978. A recent CAB
fleet projection estimated that 40 would be in service at the end of 1981.
It is already evident that some small and medium-sized communities
will lose air carrier service as a result of deregulation. Actual or
planned cuts amount to at least 60 airports this year. None of these
communities will be totally devoid of service, however, since the
Deregulation Act requires that replacement carriers be found before all
air carrier service can be terminated.
This discussion is intended to establish a proper context for
evaluating the economic impacts of the proposal to include engines of
less than 20,000 pound thrust among those covered by the amended oxides
of nitrogen (NOx) standards. The potential post-1984 market for engines
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of this thrust range is a pivotal question. If there is not a market,
then there is not economic impact or, for that matter, no reason to
regulate emissions. If a market exists, its size is critical to deter-
mining the price increases resulting from the regulation since the cost
of compliance must be amortized over the units sold. Moreover, the price
increment, coupled with any changes in operating costs, becomes the basis
for trade-off analyses between: (1) using a modified aircraft, (2) using
a new aircraft type, or (3) extending the useful life of existing air-
craft.
The discussion above indicates that aircraft powered by the JT8
engines (727, 737 and DC-9) will be operating through the 1990s. Orders
and options on hand indicate that quantity production of these aircraft,
in the absence of regulatory action to the contrary, will continue well
into the 80s and perhaps beyond 1985. Furthermore, the refanned JT8-200
series is a critical component of the DC-9-80 derivative aircraft and may
be used in other applications if amended noise rules are applied to new
production of older aircraft types.
None of the newly launched or proposed U.S. aircraft are of the same
size range as the twin-engined DC-9 and 737 aircraft; all are much
larger. These new aircraft will be more efficient on high travel density
routes where seat-mile costs are the controlling factor. At lower densi-
ties, however, cost per aircraft-mile may be the controlling factor.
Judged on today's operations, there are many of these lower density
routes and several carriers (local service airlines) which are highly
dependent upon them. Increasing demand and changes in route structure
may alter this situation, but the problem of matching aircraft to routes
and demand density must be addressed in this analysis.
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CHAPTER 4
MARKET POTENTIAL FOR SHORT/MEDIUM-HAUL TRANSPORTS
The potential market for engines in the thrust range of interest to
this study (15-22 thousand pounds) depends almost entirely on the market
for narrow body, short/medium-haul transports. Moreover, these engines
can hope to capture only a fraction of the total market -- continued
production of current aircraft types and, possibly, newly developed air-
craft of a size similar to current aircraft types. Larger, newly devel-
oped aircraft in the short/medium-haul class will probably utilize larger
engines as has been done with the Boeing 757.
The CFM 56 engine has been selected for re-engining DC-8 and, per-
haps, 707 aircraft as a result of the United Airline's decision. The
general consensus is that the program is not large enough to support
alternative engines. The United decision, plus the CFM International-
Boeing program to certify a 707 with CFM 56 engines, seems to eliminate
the JT8-200 series from the four-engine aircraft retrofit program.
Because the engines of interest have limited markets, the analysis
must be carefully constructed. The question to be answered is not so
much how many narrow body aircraft will be desired, but rather how many
relatively small aircraft wil be needed. Further, the analysis should
show the consequences to airlines and the public if the potential demand
for small aircraft cannot be satisfied because of emission standards.
In order to answer these questions, it is necessary to understand the
structure of airline service, airports served, and types of aircraft
utilized. This chapter will provide both this type of background
material and the post-1984 market potential for engines of interest.
AVIATION INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Although more than 400 communities in the U.S. receive airline
service, 75% of the aircraft operations (takeoffs and landings) and 50%
of the passenger enplanements occur at the busiest 50 or so airports
(about 14% of all airports served). Analysis of the latest available
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statistical datal/ shows that the concentration of large aircraft is
even greater. Furthermore, an analysis of the Official Airline Guide
(OAG) shows that almost all scheduled flights originate, transit, or
terminate at one of these large airports.
Four classes of airports ranked according to the number of aircraft
departures have been defined for this analysis. These are:
Class 1 - 50 or more departures per day. There were 55 airports
in this class for 1978.
Class 2 - 20 to 49 departures per day. There were 55 airports in
this class for 1978.
Class 3 - 5 to 19 departures per day. There were 130 airports in
this class for 1978.
Class 4 - Less than 5 departures per day (exclusive of commuter
service). There were 140 airports in this class which received
at least some jet service.
Aircraft were also grouped in generic categories:
Four-Engine Wide Body (4 EWB) - 747
Three-Engine Wide Body (3 EWB) - 0C-10, L1011
Two-Engine Wide Body (2 EWB) - A300
Four-Engine Regular Body (4 ERB) - DC-8, 707
Three-Engine Regular Body (3 ERB) - 727-100, 727-200
Two-Engine Regular Body (2 ERB) - 737, DC-9, 8AC-111
Two-Engine Turboprop (2 ETP) - CV-580, CV-600, F-27, FH-227, YS-11
Table 1 shows 1978 departures by type for each class of airports.
Note that 2 ETP were included because this type of aircraft makes up such
a large percentage of departures at the smaller airports. The first
thing to note is that more than 97% of all large airport activity (707
1/Airport Activity Statistics of Certificated Route Air Carriers, Civil
Aeronautics Board and Federal Aviation Agency, 12 months ending
30 September 1978.
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TABLE 1
L ARTURES BY TfPE FROM EACH AIRPORT CLASS
12 MONTHS ENDING 30 SEPTEMBER 1978
(Thousands)
AIRPORT
CLASS
TOTAL
4 EWB
I EWB
2 EWB
4 ERB
3 ERB
2 ERB
2 ETP
Class 1
3,437.8
48.3
229.8
4.3
335.9
1,467.6
1,084.3
267.6
Class 2
565.2
0.2
3.0
0.4
10.4
223.2
269.5
58.5
Class 3
458.4
0.0
0.5
0.0
3.3
74.4
249.2
131.0
Class 4
123.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.5
37.4
83.0
TOTAL
4,585.3
48.5
233.3
4.7
349.6
1,768.7
1,640.4
540.1
PERCENT OF TOTAL
Class 1
75.0%
99.6%
98.5%
91.3%
96.1%
83.0%
66.1%
49.5%
Class 2
12.3
0.4
1.3
8.7
3.0
12.6
16.4
10.8
Class 3
10.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.9
4.2
15.2
24.3
Class 4
2.7
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
2.3
15.4
TOTAL
100.OX
ioo. oat
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
NOTE:
CAB certificated carriers only.
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and larger) occurs at Class 1 airports and that the percentage of other
aircraft type operations at Class 1 airports declines with size of air-
craft. At smaller airports, Class 3 and 4, the reverse is true -- the
percentage of operations increases as aircraft size decreases.
Passenger enplanements help explain these aircraft size and opera-
tions frequency relationships. Average enplanement of domestic passenger
for each airport class were as follows for 1978:
Class 1 - 3,592,000 enplanements
Class
2 -
405,000 enplanements
Class
3 -
123,000 enplanements
Class
4 -
25,000 enplanements
In total, domestic trunk airlines carried 80% of the passengers, local
service airlines about 20%. Table 2 shows the airlines included in the
trunk and local service categories for this analysis. Such newly certi-
ficated, former commuter airlines as Air New England and Air Midwest are
excluded, along with special carriers like Aspen, Wright or New York
Airways.
83% of enplanements (for certificated carriers) occured at Class 1
airports while the remaining 17% were spread among the 55 Class 2 air-
ports (9%), 130 Class 3 airports (7%) and 140 Class 4 airports (1%).
Table 3 shows enplanements by carrier type and airport class for 1978.
Trunk airlines board more than 87% of these passengers at Class 1 air-
ports compared to 20% of the business from the 270 smaller airports as
opposed to about 7.5% for trunks.
The relationship between departures, passengers and size of aircraft
can be better understood from the information in Table 4 which shows
passengers and seats per departure by class of airport along with the
average number of seats for each aircraft type. The table shows that
many of the Class 4 airports (which average only 2.4 departures and 41
passengers per day) can be efficiently served by commuter airlines with
15
-------
TABLE 2
CARRIER BY CLASS
DOMESTIC TRUNKS LOCAL SERVICE
American
A1 legheny
Brani ff
Frontier
Continental
Hughes
Delta
North Central
Eastern
Ozark
National
Piedmont
Northwest
Southern
TWA
Texas International
Urn' ted
Western
16
-------
TABLE
ENPLANEMENTS BY CARRIER T
1978
ENPLANEMENTS (OOP)
TOTAL TRUNKS LOCAL
Class
1
3,592
3,021
571
Class
2
405
279
126
Cfass
3
123
<50
53
Class
L
15
3
12
17
-------
TABLE 4
PASSENGER AND SEAT DATA BY AIRPORT CLASS
1978
AVERAGE
ALL
AIRPORTS
CLASS 1
CLASS 2
CLASS 3
CLASS <
Departures per Day
33.06
171.2
28.15
9.66
2.42
Passengers per Day
1,716
9,840
1,110
337
41
Passengers per Departure
51.90
57.50
39.40
34.90
17.0
Seats per Departure
112.3
119.6
98.70
E4.80
64.5
Passengers per Seat
.462
.480
.399
.412
.263
AVERAGE SEATS BY AIRCRflfT TYPE
4
EWB
357
Seats
4
ERB
150
Seats
3
EUB
246
Seats
i
m
113
Seats
2
EW3
229
Sea ts
2
fRB
92
Seats
2
FTP
50
Seats
18
-------
little degredation in quality of service. Many of the airports are
presently served by commuters.
Class 2 and Class 3 airports are less efficient, in terms of
passengers per seat, than Class 1 airports, but are relatively efficient
from a profitability point of view. Since the average flight has
approximately 18 passengers on board, these passenger-per-seat factors
will yield acceptable load factors for the size aircraft utilized.
Size of aircraft is, of course, an important consideration. Many
analysts believe that a positive relationship exists between flight
frequency and travel demand. Certainly for short-haul flights such an
assumption is reasonable since alternative forms of transportation are
available. If, for example, only 120 seat aircraft were available, an
18% decrease in departures would be required to achieve the existing
passenger-to-seats ratio. This could well result in decreased demand.
Appendix A contains data on a sample of more than 100 Class 2 and 3
airports ranging from 2,250 to 14,500 departures and from 60,000 to
380,000 enplanements. Of the 105 airports, 10 receive trunk service
only, 33 receive local service only and 62 are served by both. Trunks
serve 24 of the 25 airports with 250,000 or more passengers but of the 53
airports with less than 150,000 passengers, trunks serve only 23.
Overall, trunk airlines carried 543S of the passengers but 70£ of this
total came from the top 25 airports.
Figure 1 shows cumulative aircraft departures against airports
arrayed in descending order of enplanements. There are a few large
aircraft departures for a selected sample of airports including:
o Billings, Montana - 164 4 EWB, 143 3 EWB
o Great Falls, Montana - 3 4 EWB, 123 3 EWB, 78 4 ERB
o Mobile, Alabama - 1,415 4 ERB
o Daytona Beach, Florida - 386 3 EWB.
Large aircraft totalled less than 1% of all operations.
19
-------
FIGURE 1
Number of Airports
20
-------
Two-ERB were the most numerous aircraft used at sample airports
totalling 56% of all departures. Three-ERB aircraft total 23% of opera-
tions but only a few of these operations were at airports with less than
150,000 passengers. The turboprops, which were 19% of the total,
completed 36% of the departures at airports with less than 100,000
passengers.
Table 5 summarizes operations at the sample airports and illustrates
that the carriers have matched aircraft and passengers quite consis-
tently, except for small airports.
This analysis shows that air transportation to medium and small
communities is highly dependent upon the availability of relatively small
jet transports. Many of the Class 2 or 3 airports, even with substantial
growth, are unlikely to generate traffic sufficient to support the use of
large aircraft. In addition, physical limitations may be important.
Average runway length, based on a 100% sample of airports by class
provided by the FAA environmental data bank, are as follows:
o Class 1 - 9,200 feet
o Class 2 - 7,900 feet
o Class 3 - 6,650 feet
o Class 4 - 6,350 feet
FAA takeoff field length for various large aircraft are:
0
747-100 -
9,000 feet
0
747 SP
7,800 feet
0
DC-10-10 ¦
9,000 feet
0
DC-10-30 ¦
• 10,500 feet
0
L1011
¦ 7,960 feet
0
DC-8-61 -
¦ 10,000 feet
0
707-300 ¦
¦ 10,000 feet
21
-------
TABLE 5
OPERATIONS SUMMARY FOR SAMPLE AIRPORTS
RANGE
(OOO)
NUMBER
OF
AIRPORTS
PASSENGERS
PER
DEPARTURE
SEATS
PER
DEPARTURE
PASSENGERS
PER
SEAT
350
or More
2
28.3
84.3
.34
300
- 349
11
40.5
98.0
.41
250
- 299
12
35.0
93.8
.37
200
- 249
13
34.6
92.2
.38
150
- 199
14
32.0
93.8
.34
100
- 149
26
29.4
86.9
.34
61
- 99
27
22.4
78.8
.28
AVERAGE
32.0
90.0
.36
22
-------
which indicates that large aircraft could not operate (fully loaded) from
many of the airports.
If present trends continue, service to small airports may become more
difficult to provide. Local service airlines are phasing out turboprop
aircraft with a high retirement rate. Their fleet contained 142 2 ETP
aircraft at the end of 1977, but only 88 at the end of 1978. A recent
fleet projection for 1981 prepared by the CAB estimates only 40 turboprop
aircraft wuld be in service by the end of 1981.
STAGE LENGTHS FLOWN BY SMALL/MEDIUM TRANSPORTS
The discussion above centers on the types of airports which tend to
be dependent upon smaller transport aircraft. The next step is to
examine the stage lengths flown (miles between landings) by aircraft of
these types.
The first step in the analysis was to select a sample of airports
that would give a reasonable geographic and airline representation of the
industry. The same included such large airports as Denver, medium sized
Class 1 airports like Nashville and Class 2 airports like Mobile.
Arrivals at each airport as shown in the Official Airline Guide (OAG)
were examined and individual flight numbers of aircraft of interest (2
ER8 and 3 ERB) were recorded (American flight 383, a 727-200 arrived from
New York).
Next, each flight itinerary was recorded. AA 383, for example,
originated in New York (LGA) and made the following stops: Nashville,
Memphis, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Next, the route miles were
recorded for each city pair—/ and the stage lengths flown by each
aircraft type were compiled.
The method used, including flight itineraries, means that at least
some flights to all Class 1 and 2 airports were included in the sample
and the concentration on all small aircraft helped insure that most Class
3 airports were represented. The average stage length for the sample
j?/Book of Official CAB Airline Route Maps and Airport-to-Airport
Mileages, Airline Tariff Publishing Company, Washington, D.C.
23
-------
agreed quite closely with the average for the year as shown in the CAB,
"Aircraft Operating Cost and Performance Report" for the year 1977.
Tables 6 and 7 show a breakdown of stage lengths flown in 100-mile
increments for two-engine and three-engine aircraft respectively. Almost
60% of all 2 ER8 flights are of less than 300 miles averaging about 160
miles. Some of the city pairs of less than 300 miles are high density
routes capable of supporting wide body aircraft as they become available
in quantity. New York and Washington or Boston, Dallas to Houston, and
Chicago and Detroit are good examples. Other of these short stage length
flights are made on low-density routes where the 100-seat aircraft is
virtually essential. Piedmont Flight 68 is a good example. Flight 68 is
a 737 operating over the following route: Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke and
Pittsburg.
The distribution of stage lengths flown by 2 ERB aircraft is
definitely skewed by the preponderance of short stage lengths -- the
average stage length is greater than the median and modal value. The
distribution of 3 ERB stage lengths is relatively uniform up through 800
miles, which illustrates the versatility of the aircraft.
Deregulation should lead to a more uniform distribution of stage
lengths for 2 ERB aircraft. The local service airlines have taken
advantage of the relaxed market entry regulations and have added city
pairs that offer both traffic density improvements and stage lengths
better suited to the aircraft. Nevertheless, continued service to
medium/small communities probably means that aircraft capable of econom-
ically flying relatively short stage lengths will be required.
POST-1984 MARKET
It is certain that the JT8 powered aircraft will be operating in
large numbers during the last half of the 1980s and, perhaps, well into
the 1990s. Orders already on hand insure that quantity production of
these aircraft will continue into the early 1980s. It is not so clear
that the demand for new aircraft of these types can be sustained into the
post-1984 time period.
24
-------
TABLE 6
BREAKDOWN OF STAGE LENGTHS FLOWN'
TWO-ENGINE REGULAR SODV AIRCRAFT
YEAR 1977
PERCENT OF TOTAL
FLIGHTS
AVERAGE TRIP
STAGE LENGTH
(MILES)
TOTAL
DOMESTIC
TRUNKS
LOCAL
SERVICE
TOTAL
DOMESTIC
TRUNKS
LOCAL
SERVICE
0
- 99
14.5%
12.8%
15.9%
73
75
71
100
- 199
26.3
19.8
31.8
144
146
142
200
- 299
17.7
14.1
20.3
256
259
254
300
- 399
17.4
20.2
15.0
346
357
336
400
- 499
10.7
12.2
9.5
452
468
438
500
- 599
8.6
13.1
4.8
569
578
561
600
- 699
1.7
2.8
0.8
645
631
614
700
- 799
1-9
3.5
0.5
777
793
764
800
- 899
0.6
1.3
0.0
866
866
0
900
- 999
0.1
0.0
0.1
987
0
987
1000 and more
0.5
0.2
0.3
1034
1018
1047
100.03
100.0%
ioo. or;
289
340
246
25
-------
TABLE 7
BREAKDOWN OF STAGE LENGTHS
727 - 100/200 AIRCRAFT
YEAR 1977
STAGE LENGTH
PERCENT
OF TOTAL
AVERAGE MILES
(MILES)
IN GROUP
CUMULATIVE
IN GROUP
CUMULATIVE
0 -
99
7.1%
7.1%
70
70
o
0
1
199
10.6
17.7
149
117
200 -
299
10.5
28.2
240
163
300 -
399
12.0
40.2
343
217
400 -
499
8.7
48.9
447
258
500 -
599
11.8
60.7
541
313
600 -
699
9.0
69.7
539
355
700 -
799
11.6
81.3
742
410
800 -
899
5.5
86.9
838
438
900 -
999
4.7
91.6
934
464
1000 -
1500
7.3
98.9
1227
520
1500 and
More
1.1
100.0
1572
532
-------
The existing fleet as of 31 December 1978 is shown in Table 8. These
aircraft make up a substantial portion of the total airline fleet and
will carry a significant portion of total passengers well into the
future. An unpublished CAB projection, for example, estimated that these
small and medium aircraft would deliver 463S of total passenger miles in
1981.
The Air Transport Association (ATA) furnished JWN a fleet projection
through 1985 based on a June 1978 survey of its members. The ATA fleet
excludes the intrastate carriers shown above, but includes both Air
Canada and CP Air. The ATA projection is shown in Table 9 while Table 10
shows additions to and retirements from the ATA for the years covered
(1979-85).
The ATA projection forecasts the addition of 12 to 15 new
smal1/medium aircraft each year for 1982 to 1985. A survey of 59 North
American and Caribbean Airlines, conducted by Douglas Aircraft and
furnished to JWM, indicates a potential market of 8-10 aircraft of this
type per year after 1984, excluding the DC-9-80. The same survey indi-
cated a market average of about 85 aircraft per year for new technology,
short/medium range aircraft including the DC-9-80.
The ATA and Douglas projections indicate a small but continuing
market for aircraft of interest - no more than 10 to 12 per year. Adding
the DC-9-80 could easily double the market for JT8 aircraft.
27
-------
TABLE 8
SMALL/MEDIUM TRANSPORT FLEET
12 DECEMBER 1978
727
2 ER8
737
DC-9
BAC-111
TRUNKS
863
227
81
146
0
LOCAL SERVICE
14
288
49
209
30
INTRASTATE
32
27
22
5
0
ALASKA/HAWAII
10
24
15
9
_0
TOTAL
919
566
167
369
30
SOURCE: World Aviation Directory, Summer 1979
2S
-------
TABLE 9
ESTIMATED AIRCRAFT IN FLEET AT YEAR END
ATA MEMBERS ONLY
JUNE 1978 SURVEY
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
BAC-llI
31
3Q
3Q
29
28
28
28
28
28
DC-9-10
82
81
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
DC-9-30
249
247
259
258
271
274
278
. 279
284
DC-9-50
34
42
48
48
51
53
55
55
55
DC-9-80
0
0
0
2
4
8
8
8
8
B-737-12C
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
B-737-20C
140
149
162
163
155
153
173
178
130
3-727-100
in
353
333
S2.4
315
300
276
236
214
B-727-200
Ml
553
614
571
695
597
699
702
705
-------
TABLE 10
RETIREMENTS AND ADDITIONS TO FLEET
ATA MEMBERS ONLY
JUNE 1978 SURVEY
DC-9-10
DC-9-30
DC-
9-50
B-737
B-727
TOTAL
RET
ADD
RET
ADD
RET
ADD
RET
ADD
RET
ADD
RET
ADD
1979
1
0
0
12
0
6
1
14
20
61
22
93
1980
0
0
1
10
0
0
1
2
14
57
16
69
1981
0
0
3
6
0
3
1
3
9
24
13
36
1982
0
0
0
3
0
2
1
5
15
2
16
12
1983
0
0
1
5
0
2
1
5
24
2
26
14
1984
0
0
3
A
0
0
3
3
40
3
46
15
1935
0
0
_2
J_
0
_0
0
_2
22
3
24
12
TOTAL
1
0
10
47
0
13
8
39
144
152
153
251
RET = Retirements
ADO = Additions
30
-------
CHAPTER 5
LOW NOx ENGINES IN THE 15-22 THOUSAND POUND THRUST RANGE
At the present time, there is only one production engine available in
the 20,000 pound range - the JT8. Production versions of the CFM 56,
rated at 22,000 pounds, are not yet available and the RB 432 is still
largely a paper engine.
Barring regulatory action to the contrary, the CFM 56 will soon be
available. United Airlines has committed to re-engine 30 DC-8-61 trans-
ports with the CFM 56 at a cost of about $1,400 million. The package
includes 150 engines - one spare for each aircraft set of four. Delta,
Flying Tiger, and Braniff are reportedly considering retrofit of the DC-8
Series 60 aircraft. The worldwide total of Series 60 transports is about
240, 180 of which are -61 and -63 aircraft. These are prime candidates
for retrofit because they can carry about 250 passengers. CFM Interna-
tional estimates that 150 DC-8s could be re-engined by the end of 1984.
The engine is also due to be certified on a 707 late this year.
While none of these aircraft have been ordered by any airline to date,
the certification process makes a 707 re-engining program more attrac-
tive. Although reportedly under consideration, no such program has been
announced.
Full scale development of the RB 432 has not yet been approved.
Design and component development is continuing and an engine size in the
18,000 pound range is contemplated. The development decision probably
hinges on an attractive aircraft program which could utilize such an
engine.
The Rolls-Royce Spey, rated at less than 15,000 pounds and therefore
not directly comparable to the other engines discussed here, will
continue in production at a low rate for the time period of interest.
Its main U.S. application will be the Gulfstream 2 and 3 business jet, a
non-commercial aircraft exempt from these standards. It will be used on
commercial aircraft still in production, the 8AC-111 and the F-28,
although there are no known U.S. orders for such aircraft.
31
-------
POTENTIAL NEW AIRCRAFT PROGRAMS
There are several new aircraft programs either in development or in
the planning phase that would utilize engines of the class considered
here. The DC-9-80 program has been launched and about 80 orders are on
the books. First deliveries are scheduled for 1980. Press sources
report that Boeing is considering a twin engined version of the 727,
smaller than the 757. Such an aircraft would not use one of the
announced versions of the JT8, (209 or 217) but, if built, could use
another derivative. The CFM 56 seems the most logical choice of existing
engines.
There are several European programs of interest. The HS 146 is in
development. This aircraft, a high winged, 4-engined transport with 70
to 100 seats, is designed as a feeder jet for short-haul, low density
routes. The Lycoming ALF 502H, rated at 6,700 pounds, will power the
aircraft. The HS 146 is included in this study because it is a potential
candidate for the post 1984 short-haul market. The ALF 502 is not,
strictly speaking, an alternative to the JT8. It remains to be seen if
the assumed economic advantages of the 4-engine design prove out in
practice.
The Joint European Transport (JET) program is still under consider-
ation. JET-1 is planned for 136 seats, JET-2 for 163. Both versions
would use the CFM 56. A largely undefined JET-3 is being considered
using a growth version of the CFM 56 rated at 25-27,000 pounds. Fokker
is considering the F-29, a somewhat larger version of the F-28 designed
for short-haul/low-density applications. It would use a new engine,
presumably the RB 432.
With the possible exception of the F-29 program, none of these
aircraft are likely to lead to new engine programs.
LOW NOx POTENTIAL OF CANDIDATE ENGINES
It seems unlikely to JWN that any of the engines discussed here will
meet the 1984 NOx standards. The JT8 has high emissions compared to the
CFM 56, but the CFM 56 in its planned configuration, will not meet the
32
-------
1984 levels. Low NOx will be a design parameter in RB 432 combustion
design, but it is not certain that the engine, if developed, will meet
the standard.
JT8 Development Work - Rig tests of several configurations of
combustors were included in the NASA sponsored reduced emission program.
A Vorbix-type staged combustor was included and tests showed a signifi-
cant reduction in NOx. The research program was terminated before any
engine tests were conducted.
Although the rig tests could be termed successful since significant
reductions in NOx were obtained, it is the judgement of JWN that a
Vorbix-type combustor is impractical for a can-annular engine. There are
several reasons for this opinion. First, all engine producers have
experienced difficulties in matching staged combustor outputs with
turbine input requirements during low NOx development on their larger
engines. This problem cannot help but be more difficult when the turbine
receives inputs from 9 separate combustion chambers. Second, the design
of the JT8 burner-can tested required that fuel injection tubes be used
to supply the main sector. These tubes, although outside the combustor
itself, are located in the hostile environment of the annulus and
subjected to high temperatures. Experience with the large engines
indicated that fuel purging from injection nozzles is probably required
to prevent the build-up of carbon deposits. Such purging would probably
be required for a JT8 Vorbix application with the added problem of what
to do with the extremely hot fuel in the injection tube. A very complex
fuel management system would be required for the Vorbix JT8.
These problems are difficult and essentially demonstrate that the
application of staged combustors to can-annular engines is unproven and
perhaps impossible. On this basis, an entirely new development program,
probably based upon new concepts, will be required. The cost and time
required for such a program will be significant and perhaps approach
those expended for low NOx development for larger engines.
33
-------
RR Spey - This engine, like the JT8, is a can-annular type. Rolls-
Royce, perhaps because of the limited U.S. commercial market, has not
attempted to develop a low NOx Spey. They report, however, that water
injection appears to be the only technically feasible way to reduce NOx
emissions. All parties argue that water injection is an unacceptable
solution.
CFM 56 - The CFM 56 is a relatively low NOx engine but it does not
meet the proposed standards. Furthermore, as of Fall, 1978, 6E had no
technology on hand that would reduce NOx without increasing other
emissions to unacceptable levels.
RB 432 - Combustor design for this engine has considered emission
standards as design parameters. A scaled-up RB 401 annular vaporizer
combustor will marginally meet HC/CO standards, but not NOx. A scaled-
down RB 211-524 combustor gives predicted emission values that might meet
CO and NOx standards, but not HC. Staging increases combustor length by
more than 2 inches and would increase engine weight by about 150 pounds.
The engine would suffer the same durability and maintainability problems
as other staged combustor engines. The requirement to meet NOx standards
can be expected to increase both development cost and time. A five-year
program from go-ahead to entry into service is anticipated.
34
-------
CHAPTER 6
POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Quantifying the economic impacts associated with environmental
regulations is a difficult task at best, especially for an industry
facing such significant changes as the air transportation industry.
Ordinarily, however, estimates with a reasonable degree of validity can
be developed, provided sufficient background data can be accumulated to
evaluate the major time-technology-cost issues raised by the regulatory
proposal. These conditions could rot be met in this case because one of
the major companies concerned, Pratt and Whitney, declined to participate
for what the company believed were good and sufficient reasons.
JWN respects the Pratt and Whitney decision and no criticism is
intended in this statement of fact. Their decision did, however, alter
the nature of the impact analysis. JWN could not, without substantial
assistance from Pratt and Whitney, develop a valid estimate of the cost
of compliance. Although several models are available for estimating
aircraft engine costs, none are suitable for this analysis. The models,
in general, are based on such performance characteristics as thrust,
turbine inlet temperature, compression ratio or bypass ratios. None of
these parameters should change in the transition to a low NOx engine.
Quite the contrary, a successful low NOx development must insure no
significant changes in performance parameters.
The normal analytic procedure -- estimate the cost of compliance,
then translate these costs into impacts on such interested parties as
producers, aircraft manufacturers, airlines, travelers, and the public --
could not be applied. Instead, alternative measures were used to develop
largely qualitative measures.
As discussed above, JWN does not believe that a low NOx version of
the JT8 engine is technically or economically feasible, particularly by
1984. It seems clear to us that a Vorbix-type application is infeasible
for a can-annular engine. While it is possible that a new development
program could lead to a low NOx engine, the development cost and time
35
-------
would probably erode any economic potential of the basic engine or its
refanned derivatives. Similarly, we know of no programs underway at
General Electric that would allow the CFM 56 to meet the standard. The
R8 432 has not been approved for full scale development and would require
a five-year development cycle after go-ahead.
JWN concludes that promulgation of the NOx standards as proposed
would essentially eliminate new production of existing or planned engines
in the 15-22,000 pound class. The long-term effects of such an action
are almost impossible to quantify. On the one hand, there are more than
1,500 aircraft using this type of engine that will require replacement
during the last decade of the century. On the other hand, if a signi-
ficant demand for engines of this size exists, it seems reasonable to
assume that an environmentally acceptable engine can and will be devel-
oped. Fuel supply problems and potential alternative fuels may lead to
significantly different power plants in that time period.
The short-term effects could be severe, impacting all segments of the
industry — producers, airlines and travelers. The DC-8 and potential
707 re-engining programs would be disrupted and, perhaps, cost the air-
line industry the post-1984, use of economically viable aircraft in both
prinary and secondary uses. Potential sales of current production air-
craft [10-12 aircraft per year through 1990} would be lost. The DC-9-80
program would have to be terminated with a substantial loss to the
producer in terms of unrecovered aircraft development costs and market
position. The impact on Pratt and Whitney would be significant since the
JT8, although perhaps phasing down, would still be making a substantial
contribution to the cost flow and profits. Loss of these revenues would
hamper other engine development programs.
JWN believes, therefore, that the proposed standards are neither
technically nor economically feasible. The CFM 56 could meet a somewhat
relaxed set of standards. We have assumed, therefore, that such a
standard should be investigated on the grounds of reasonableness. Since
we know of no technology that will reduce JT8 NOx emissions signifi-
cantly, the JT8 could qualify only if, essentially, no standard at all
were applied.
36
-------
Elimination of the JT8 only for its emissions would have adverse
impacts on the industry and travelers. The DC-9-80 program would,
essentially, be terminated. Douglas considered the CFM 56 during the
development program, but concluded that the CFM 56 aircraft would cost
approximately $3 million more [22%) and require approximately 25 more
seats to achieve competitive seat mile costs. The JT8-209 aircraft was
designed for field lengths comparable to the 30 series, which could not
necessarily be obtained with the CFM 56. The size and weight of the CFM
56 would require additional development for new nacelles and pylons,
beef-up and changes to the aft fuselage (engine mount adapter and higher
skin thickness) and modifications to the air conditioning system because
of higher bleed air temperatures. These changes in size and cost would
make the aircraft less attractive to many potential customers, in
Douglas1 view, and the extra time required to develop the CFM 56 aircraft
would eliminate an important market advantage -- the availability of the
DC-9-80 well ahead of potential competition.
Airlines would be deprived of desirable aircraft -- perhaps 50 or
more current production types and the DC-9-80 share of the new aircraft
market. The airlines could abandon service to additional small/medium
cities, buy substitute aircraft or retain older aircraft in the fleet for
a longer period. Some cost is associated with each of these alternatives.
Pratt and Whitney would suffer the adverse impacts discussed above.
The impact on Douglas would be substantial. Boeing would also be
impacted through lost sales at a time when major capital expenditures for
new aircraft development had not yet been recovered.
Airline cost per mile for the small city-short haul market will
almost certainly be increased by the elimination of the JT8. The 757
compares favorably with the 727 on a cost per seat mile basis and
reportedly will consume 9% less fuel over a 400 mile stage length.
Maintenance costs for two RB 211-535 engines will be substantially higher
than the costs for three JT8 engines on the 727. These costs will more
than offset the fuel savings at today's prices. The difference would be
greater if the RB 211 has the staged combustor necessary to meet 1984
standards. Fuel price increases in the amount likely to occur by 1984
37
-------
may offset this maintenance cost differential. Two ERB aircraft, how-
ever, burn approximately 35% less fuel per block-hour than the 727-200
and experience 25% less maintenance costs. It does not appear, there-
fore, that the 757 can compare to these aircraft on a cost-per-mile basis
even with significant fuel price increases.
Figure 2, based on information supplied by Boeing for another study
and interpreted by JWN for application here, illustrates the differences
discussed above. Note that the plot labeled 737-200 is analogous to any
2 ERB and that the plot labeled JT8 REFAN stretch is analogous to the
DC-9-80. The figure illustrates that 2 ERB aircraft are preferred on low
density routes by a wide margin (in terms of per mile cost). The annual
penalty for using a 757 (assuming a fixed passenger load) on such a route
is approximately $3.7 milliion.
The increases in costs for the small city-short haul market,
resulting either from substitute aircraft or extended life aircraft,
should not have a major impact on fares. Increased costs will have an
impact on airline profitability and most of the burden will fall on local
service carriers. All of these carriers, except Allegheny, receive
subsidy payments.
Based on the discussion above, L984 standards -- which would
eliminate the JT8 engine — would have the following adverse impacts:
1. A substantial impact on Pratt and Whitney in terms of cash
flow, profits and, perhaps, employment.
2. A substantial impact on Douglas in terms of unrecouped
development costs for the DC-9-80, lost sales of a
potentially profitable aircraft line, and a diminished
competitive capacity.
3. A reduction in the number of small/medium cities receiving
airline class service or increased subsidy payments to local
service carriers. It is possible that both would occur.
38
-------
APPENDIX A
105 AIRPORT SAMPLE DATA
J WATSON NOAH INC
-------
TABLE A-l
105 AIRPORT SAMPLE
ENPLANEMENTS AND DEPARTURES BY TYPE
EUPLAMO-
MENTS
(000)
DEPARTURES BY
AIRCRAFT TYPE
TOTAL
WIDE BODY
4 ENG 3 EMG
2 ENG
REGULAR BODY
4 ENG 3 ENG 2 ENG
TURBOPROP
4 ENG 2 ENG
OTHER
ROANOKE
380
14,506
0
0
0
0
2,707
5,348
0
6,451
0
MA3ISQH
354
11,461
0
0
0
0
2,937
6,719
0
1.805
0
SAVANNAH
338
5,198
0
0
0
1,415
3,772
11
0
0
0
MOBILE
336
10,474
0
0
0
0
2,448
8,026
0
0
0
MOLINE
331
10,663
0
0
0
24
3,361
5,258
0
2,020
0
TOLEDO
331
7,698
0
0
0
15
3,631
3,849
0
3
0
GREEIIV M-LE
321
8,373
0
0
0
0
2,753
4,656
0
964
0
GREEN BAY
321
10,891
0
0
0
0
0
7,748
0
3,143
0
LEXINGTON
319
8,270
0
0
0
0
2.353
4,772
0
1,145
0
TiMTOMft BEACH
317
5.74E
t>
386
0
0
3,013
2,349
0
0
0
TORT ri£YERS
310
4,753
0
0
0
0
4,249
504
0
0
0
HAR3ISPURGH
309
5,909
0
2
0
237
079
2,932
0
10
1,749
CHATTANOOGA
303
9,493
0
0
0
6
3,900
5,587
0
0
0
AKRON-CANTON
289
7,592
0
0
0
4
1,734
5,837
0
17
0
COLORADO SPRINGS
286
7,724
0
14
0
5
4,756
571
0
2,378
0
AMARILLO
286
7,643
1
0
0
8
4,317
2,606
0
681
0
GILLIfiGS
282
7,969
164
143
0
0
2,414
3,352
0
716
1,1 BO
ALLEinOVJN
273
5,120
0
0
0
0
2,684
2,424
1
8
3
I1UNTSVJLLE
272
8,377
0
0
0
5
2,065
6,301
0
0
6
SOUIX FALLS
271
11,516
0
1
0
355
1,539
3,670
0
5,951
0
CHARLESTON, W. VA.
26?
8.224
0
0
0
5
1,599
4.446
0
2,174
0
PEORIA
266
10,065
0
0
0
0
1,167
7,692
0
1,206
0
CEOAR RAPIDS
257
7,797
0
0
0
13
2,260
4,528
0
996
0
MONTEREY
253
4,730
0
0
0
13
1,838
2,879
0
0
0
FORT WAYNE
250
6,141
0
0
0
20
2,767
3,354
0
0
0
-------
ENPLANE-
MENTS
(OOO)
TOTAL
BATON ROUGE
245
7,455
EVANSVI LIE
244
5,723
TALLAHASSEE
237
6,576
MONTGOMERY
234
7,452
PORTLAND
232
5,936
SOUTH BEND
226
6,242
BRISTOL/TRI CITIES
224
9,621
SAGINAW
222
5,828
LINCOLN
220
9,232
LANSING
218
8,320
CORPUS CHRISTI
203
3,583
EUGENE
203
4,612
AUSTIN
193
9', 941
PALM SPRINGS
188
3,355
SANTA BARBARA
103
2,937
MELBOURNE
183
4,091
SPRINGFIELD, MO
181
6,812
ASHVILLE
179
7,241
COLUMBUS, GA
172
5,941
BURLINGTON, VT
170
5,140
SCRANTON/SILKES BARRE
162
3,433
NEWPORT NEWS
161
4,566
FAYLTTEVILLE, NC
161
5,872
GRAIIL) JUNCTION
159
3,881
A-l (Continued)
DEPARTURES BY AIRCRAFT TYPE
WIDE
BODY
REGULAR BODY
TURBOPROP
ENG 3
ENG 2
ENG
4 ENG
3 ENG
2 ENG
4 ENG
2 ENG
OTHER
0
0
0
0
2,914
4,541
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,046
4,677
0
0
0
0
0
0
45
1,534
5,042
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,601
1,756
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2,801
1,532
0
761
840
0
0
0
18
1,760
2,784
0
1,680
0
0
0
0
0
1,026
5,411
0
2,614
570
0
0
0
16
1,288
3,794
0
730
0
0
0
0
12
2,231
4,262
0
2,727
0
0
0
0
14
1,149
2,788
0
2,369
0
0
0
0
0
2,178
1.399
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
13
4,596
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
6,123
3,816
0
2
0
0
17
0
711
1,246
1,381
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,345
1,586
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
2,441
1,650
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
728
5,615
0
469
0
0
0
0
2
556
4,602
0
2,081
0
0
0
0
0
11
5,929
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
159
3,295
0
1,166
520
0
0
0
0
1,347
2,083
1
0
2
Q
0
0
4
828
2,519
0
1,215
0
0
0
0
0
1,732
3,034
0
1, 1C6
0
0
0
0
185
1,102
822
0
1,772
0
-------
0
0
0
0
2
0
16
0
0
Q
0
0
0
0
¦6
G
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TABLE A-l (Continued)
ENPLANE-
DEPARTURES BY
AIRCRAFT TYPE
MENTS
WIDE BODY
REGULAR BODY
TURBOPROP
<000)
TOTAL
4 ENG
3 ENG 2
ENG
4 ENG
2 ENG
3 ENG
4 ENG
2 ENG
155
5,280
2
2
0
0
2,133
1,820
0
1,323
152
6.387
1
1
0
0
2,506
2,045
0
1,834
149
5,324
0
0
0
0
4
4,586
0
734
140
4,590
3
123
0
78
1,493
2,893
0
0
140
3,549
0
0
0
0
74
3,469
0
4
140
4,668
0
0
0
13
886
2,598
0
1,371
138
4,096
0
0
0
21
849
2,677
0
153
138
2,750
0
0
0
0
1,781
969
0
0
137
3,247
0
0
0
0
256
2,991
0
0
136
6,028
0
0
0
0
4,749
1,279
0
0
135
1.017
0
0
0
0
355
1,452
0
0
13D
4,837
0
0
0
0
333
2,408
0
2,096
129
4,204
0
0
0
0
25
3,501
0
678
129
4,962
0
0
0
0
0
3,377
0
1,585
128
5,038
0
0
0
0
1,534
1,780
0
1,438
12S
4,900
0
0
0
0
0
2,218
0
2,682
127
5,735
0
0
0
0
0
4,277
0
1,458
123
2,416
0
0
0
0
5
2,411
0
0
119
5,882
0
0
0
0
0
3,477
0
2,405
117
4,923
0
0
0
0
2,246
2,575
0
102
115
4,409
0
0
G
0
0
i ,409
0
0
115
3,042
0
0
0
0
0
3,038
0
4
113
3,954
0
0
0
0
0
1,542
0
2,412
113
2,127
0
0
0
0
0
2,127
0
0
113
7,567
0
0
0
0
0
4,678
0
2,889
-------
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
TABLE A-l (Continued)
ENPLANE-
DEPARTURES BY
AIRCRAFT TYPE
MENTS
HIDE
BODY
REGULAR BODY
TURBOPROP
(000)
TOTAL
4 ENG 3
ENG 2
ENG
4 ENG
3 ENG
2 ENG
4 ENG
2 ENG
103
5,385
0
0
0
0
871
2,512
0
2,002
102
2,059
0
0
0
0
0
1,707
0
352
100
2,954
0
0
0
0
0
2,954
0
0
98
2,185
0
0
0
0
10
2,175
0
0
98
4,593
0
0
0
0
0
3,216
0
1,377
93
6,510
0
0
0
0
1,425
970
0
4,115
92
2,453
0
0
0
0
0
2,453
0
0
91
3,605
0
0
0
0
0
3,605
0
0
85
4,082
0
0
0
0
10
1,769
0
2,303
85
4,718
0
0
0
0
345
1,910
0
2,463
84
3,082
0
0
0
0
0
1,935
0
1,147
83
3-,634
0
0
0
0
0
1,812
0
1,822
82
2,366
0
0
0
0
1,082
1,284
0
0
78
3,439
0
0
0
0
533
2,906
0
0
75
2,288
0
0
0
0
571
1,714
0
3
73
2,579
0
0
0
0
32
1,220
0
1,327
72
2,807
0
0
0
0
0
2,804
0
0
71
2,956
0
0
0
0
13
1,228
0
1,715
70
2,956
0
0
0
0
2,061
769
0
129
70
2,813
0
0
0
0
0
1,796
0
719
-------
ENPLANE-
MENTS
(OOO)
OSHKOSH
70
TOPEKA
67
ALBANY, GA
66
CHARLOTTESVILLE
66
COLUMBIA, MO
65
JOPLIN
55
ITHACA
65
BOZEMAN
64
POCATELLO
63
SMITH/REYNOLDS
61
TABLE A-l (Continued)
DEPARTURES BY AIRXRAFT TYPE
WIDE BODY REGULAR BODY TURBOPROP
TOTAL
4 ENG
3 ENG
2 ENG
4 ENG
3 ENG
2 ENG
4 ENG
2 ENG
OTHER
3,831
0
0
0
0
0
1,142
0
2,689
0
4,180
0
0
0
0
0
1,836
0
2,344
0
2,759
0
0
0
0
0
2,745
0
0
14
3,216
0
0
0
0
327
1,007
0
1,882
0
3,538
0
0
0
0
0
1,325
0
2,213
0
3,954
0
0
0
0
0
1,542
0
2,412
0
3,018
0
0
0
0
5
985
0
2,028
0
2.247
0
0
0
0
924
1.320
0
1
0
4.
2.834
0
0
0
0
0
2,884
0
0
0
4,853
0
0
0
0
686
1,754
0
2,419
0
-------
TABLE A-2
SAMPLE STRATIFIED BY
EMPLACEMENTS
PASSENGER
RANGE
AIRPORTS
TOTAL
LARGE
3 ERB
2 ERB
2 ETP
COMMUTER
TOTAL
ENPLANEME
(000)
350 plus
2
25,967
0
5,644
12,067
8,256
0
734
300-349
11
87,470
2,085
30,659
45,660
7,285
1,749
3,539
2GQ-299
12
92,896
751
29,170
47,660
14,127
1,190
3,252
200-249
13
84,937
107
22,156
50,374
10,890
1,410
2,940
150-199
14
74,877
925
22,257
40,197
10,974
524
2,399
ior>-\49
26
110,663
238
15,461
71,915
22,365
684
3,257
61-99
27
91,555
0
8,024
50,106
33,108
317
2,052
TOTAL
105
568,367
4,106
133,371
318,011
107,005
5,874
18,173
-------
TABLE A-3
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PASSENGERS AND SEATS
PASSENGER
RANGE
AVERAGE
ENPLANEMENTS DEPARTURES
PASSENGERS
PER
DEPARTURE
SEATS
PER
DEPARTURE
PASSENGERS
PER
SEAT
350 plus
367,000
12,983
28.3
84-3
.34
300-349
321,700
7,952
40.5
98.0
.41
250-299
271,000
7,742
35.0
93.8
.37
200-249
226,150
6,534
34.6
92.2
.38
150-199
171,360
5.34B
32.0
93,8
.34
100-149
125,300
4,256
29.4
86.9
.34
61-99
76.000
3,391
22.4
78.8
.28
AVERAGE
173,076
5,413
32.0
90.0
.355
-------
TABLE A-4
LOCAL-TRUNK SPLIT FOR SAMPLE AIRPORTS
AIRPORT
SERVICE
ENPLANEMENTS (000]
PASSENGE
RANGE
TOTAL TRUNKS
LOCAL
MIXED
TOTAL
TRUNKS
LOCAL
350 and
More
2
0
0
2
734
118
616
300 -
349
11
3
1
7
3,539
2,544
995
250 -
299
12
1
0
11
3,252
2,101
1,151
200 -
249
13
2
L
10
2,940
2,086
854
150 -
199
14
1
1
12
2,399
1,380
1,019
100 -
149
26
2
13
11
3,257
1,162
2,095
61 -
99
2]
_1
17
_9
2,052
369
1,683
TOTAL
105
10
33
62
18,173
9,760
8,413
------- |