EPA-420-R-86-103
ESTIMATED REFINING COST IMPACT
OF
REDUCING GASOLINE VAPOR PRESSURE
SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT
25 February 1986
Prepared For
The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Via Support From
Jack Faucett Associates
Under Contract No. 68-03-3244
and
Southwest Research Institute
Under Contract No. 68-03-3192
Gdo
ODD
Bonner & Moore Management Science
2727 Allen Parkway • Houston, Texas 77019
(713) 522-6800 • TWX 910881 2542
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DISCLAIMER
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection
Agency by Bonner & Moore Management Science under subcontract
to Jack Faucett Associates, 5454 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 115,
Chevy Chase, Maryland, 20815, in fulfillment of Work Assign-
ment Nos. 5 and 6 under Contract 68-03-3244 and to Southwest
Research Institute, 6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, Texas,
in fulfillment of Work Assignment No. 13 of Contract 68-03-
3192. The contents of this report are reproduced herein as
received from Bonner & Moore. The opinions, findings, and
conclusions expressed are those of the author and not neces-
sarily those of the Environmental Protection Agency. Mention
of company or product names is not to be considered as an
endorsement by the Environmental Protection Agency.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Paragraph Page
SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION 1-1
SECTION 2
PADD 2 CASES WITH CHANGING *gl60°F 2-1
2.1 RESULTS FROM NON-OXYGENATE CASE RUNS 2-2
2.2 OXYGENATE CASE RESULTS 2-6
2.3 DETAILS FOR PADD 2 CASES WITH REDUCED
MAXIMUM t§ 160°F 2-9
SECTION 3
PADD 2 CASES WITH TWO ETHANQL GRADES 3-1
3.1 TEN-PERCENT ETHANOL CASES 3-2
3.2 FIVE-PERCENT ETHANOL CASES 3-5
3.3 DETAILS FOR PADD 2 CASES WITH 51
AND 10% ETHANOL 3-8
SECTION 4
PADD 3 CASES WITH 2:1 METHANOL-TBA
AND CASE AT 11.12 RVP AND 25 *gl60°F 4-1
4.1 RESULTS FROM 2:1 METHANOL-TBA CASES 4-1
4.2 RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL, 11.12 RVP,
AND 25 tei60°F 4-2
4.3 DETAILS FOR PADD 3 CASES WITH 7.5* METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 t@l60°F 4-3
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)
Paragraph Page
SECTION 5
PADD 3 CASES FOR ESTIMATING NON-CONTROL-SEASON
USE OF RVP-CONTROL PROCESS ADDITIONS 5-1
5.1 NON-CONTROL SEASON VALUE OF
CONTROL-REQUIRED INVESTMENT 5-1
5.2 DETAILS FOR PADD 3 CASES FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON
VALUE OF CONTROL-REQUIRED FACILITIES 5-3
SECTION 6
PADD 3 CASES FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECT
OF SPREADING CAPITAL COST
ONLY OVER CONTROL PERIOD 6-1
6.1 SUMMARY OF EFFECT OF SHORTENING
CAPITAL RECOVERY PERIOD 6-2
6.2 EFFECT OF UNLIMITED BUTANE AVAILABILITY
ON USE OF NALKYLATION CAPACITY 6-3
6.3 DETAILS FOR PADD 3 CASES TO ASSESS SHORT-PERIOD
AMORTIZATION OF CONTROL-REQUIRED INVESTMENT ... 6-5
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure Page
2-1 RVP Reduction Cost Versus Maximum l(M60oF 2-3
2-2 Costs for Changing RVP and I@160°F
(PADD 2 With Fixed NGL Purchases) 2-5
2-3 Costs for Changing RVP and I§160°F
With 7.54 Methanol-TBA in Gasoline
(PADD 2 With Fixed NGL Purchases) 2-8
LIST OF TABLES
Number Page
2-1 EFFECT ON VAPOR PRESSURE REDUCTION COST OF
LOWERING MAXIMUM t§l60°F, PADD 2 ($/BBL) 2-2
2-2 COST OF CHANGING MAXIMUM *§160°F ($/BBL) 2-4
2-3 EFFECT OF LOWERING MAXIMUM «@160°F WITH 7.51
METHANOL-TBA IN GASOLINE BLEND, PADD 2
($/BBL) 2-6
2-4 COST OF CHANGING MAXIMUM t§l60°F WITH
7.51 METHANOL-TBA IN GASOLINE BLEND
($/BBL) 2-7
2-5 PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL
PURCHASES — STANDARD PREMISES 2-10
2-6 PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL
PURCHASES — 7.5t 2:1 MEOH-TBA 2-14
3-1 VOLATILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR
101 ETHANOL CASES (MAXIMUM) 3-2
3-2 VOLATILITY REDUCTION COSTS
(WITH 104 ETHANOL) 3-3
3-3 RAW MATERIAL VARIATIONS:
104 ETHANOL CASES (MBPCD) 3-4
3-4 VOLATILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR
5% ETHANOL CASES (MAXIMUM) 3-5
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LIST OF TABLES (Cont-d)
Number Page
3-5 VOLATILITY REDUCTION COSTS
(WITH 5% ETHANOL) 3-6
3-6 COST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
ETHANOL CASES ($/BBL) 3-7
3-7 RAW MATERIAL VARIATIONS:
5* ETHANOL CASES (MBPCD) 3-7
3-8 PADD 2 CASE RESULTS WITH 10*
AND 5* ETHANOL BLENDS 3-9
4-1 PADD 3 RESULTS FOR FIXED NGL
AND 7.5* METHANOL-TBA 4-2
4-2 PADD 3 CASE RESULTS WITH 7.5* METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 *&160°F 4-4
5-1 PADD 3 RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL SEASONS 5-2
5-2 REVISED REFINING COSTS FOR REDUCING
MAXIMUM RVP ($ PER BARREL OF GASOLINE) 5-3
5-3 PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON USE
USE OF CONTROL FACILITIES 5-4
6-1 SUMMARY OF RECOVERY-PERIOD CASES 6-2
6-2 EFFECT OF BUTANE PURCHASE ON ALKYLATION
AND ISOMERIZATION 6-4
6-3 PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR ASSESSING
SHORT-PERIOD AMORTIZATION 6-6
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
This report documents results from a series of cases
which were designed to investigate several items of interest
derived from a prior study of refining costs* associated with
potential vapor pressure restrictions on U.S. summer gaso-
lines. Some of these supplemental cases address questions
raised by reviews of the draft version of the final report of
the original study. Others address issues that were raised
as a result of, and in addition to, the original study.
Three Work Assignments were issued by the Environ-
mental Protection Agency to define and fund preparation of
these supplemental results. Work Assignment 5 of Contract
No. 68-03-3244** called for a series of cases to explore the
interaction of vapor pressure control and various levels of
"front-end" distillation limits. These are discussed and
reported in Section 2 of this report. Task 1 of Contract
No. 68-03-3244 and' Task 4 of Work Assignment 13 of Contract
No. 68—03—3192+ called for a series of cases to explore vapor
pressure control costs with ethanol blending restricted to a
small fraction of total gasoline. These are discussed and
reported in Section 3 of this report.
"Estimated Refining Cost Impact of Reducing Gasoline Vapor
Pressure", prepared for EPA by BMMS under Work Assignments
23 and 28 of Contract No. 68-03-3162, 10 July 1985.
**Conducted under subcontract to Jack Faucett Associates, 5454
Wisconsin Avenue, Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815.
"•"Conducted under subcontract to Southwest Research Institute,
6220 Culebra Road, San Antonio, Texas 78284.
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Tasks 1, 2, and 3 of Work Assignment 13 of Contract
No. 68-03-3192 called for cases to explore vapor pressure
control-cost variations with certain changes in investment
premises used in the original study. Certain of these cases
explored the effect of restricting "front-end" distillation
with 2:1 methanol and TBA added. These cases are discussed
and reported in Sections 4, 5, and 6 of this report.
Since the models used to derive these supplemental
cases are augmented versions of those used in the original
study, the reader is referred to the final report of that
work for discussions of study premises and modeling details.
Further, the discussions of these supplemental results assume
that the reader is familiar with the report and results from
the original effort.
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SECTION 2
PADD 2 CASES WITH CHANGING tei60°F
Standard premises of the original study* stipulated
certain qualities and characteristics of motor gasoline. Among
these was a premise that no more than 35 percent of blended
gasoline would boil below 160° Fahrenheit, abbreviated as
"1@160°F". As explained in Appendix C of the referenced
study, this limit was imposed to prevent extremes at the
"front end" of the distillation curve in the absence of other
constraints to protect against vapor lock in automobile
engines.
Several reviewers of the original study report were
concerned that study results might be distorted by this pre-
mised characteristic. This concern was based on the fact
that survey data indicates %@160°F for summer gasolines in
the U.S. ranges from 25 to 30 and also because I@160°F became
a controlling influence on results obtained in cases modeling
the blending of ethanol into motor fuels.
Two situations from the original study were selected
for examination. One of these situations was with standard
premises of the original study, except for changes in the
maximum %@160°F. The other was an alcohol situation which
stipulated that gasoline be blended using 7.5 volume percent
of a 2-to-1 mix of methanol and tertiary butyl alcohol (TBA).
•Bonner & Moore Management Science, "Estimated Refining Cost
Impact of Reducing Gasoline Vapor Pressure," prepared for
EPA, June, 1985, under Contract 68-03-3162, Work Assignment
28, from Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas.
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Each of the selected situations was run to determine RVP con-
trol cost with front-end distillation characteristic limited
to 30 tgl60°F and to 25 t(M60°F. The altered-premise cases
were run only on the model representing PADD 2, with NGL
purchases fixed at estimated availabilities.
Results from these two sets of cases are presented
in the following subsections. The results show, as expected,
that lowering the maximum allowed t@l60°F reduces the cost of
vapor pressure control.
2.1 RESULTS FROM NON-OXYGENATE CASE RUNS
Summarized results from the non-oxygenate cases (with
restricted t@l60°F) are displayed in Table 2-1.
TABLE 2-1
EFFECT ON VAPOR PRESSURE REDUCTION
COST OF LOWERING MAXIMUM iei60°F, PADD 2
($/BBL)
Maximum t@l60°F
35 30 25
Cost of 2-psi RVP Reduction 0.857 0.117 0.075
Reducing the %@160°F from 35 to 30 results in a $0,410 per
barrel reduction in the cost of reducing vapor pressure.
A reduction of $0,782 per barrel is indicated for further
restricting front-end distillation to 25 4§160°F. Vapor
pressure control costs are almost linear with restriction on
front-end distillation characteristics, as shown in Figure
2-1.
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Max %@160°F
Figure 2-1. RVP Reduction Cost Versus Maximum $@160°F
The reason for this behavior is the fact that
restriction of t(M60°F eliminates much of the difficulty
involved in meeting maximum vapor pressure specifications
since components which have high blending values (at 160CF)
also have, generally speaking, high vapor pressures. This is
illustrated in Table 2-2 which compares changes in refining
costs incurred with variations in maxima for 36§160°F.
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TABLE 2-2
COST OF CHANGING MAXIMUM tgl6Q°F
U/BBL)
Maximum RVP
(psi)
11.46
9.46
35-to-30
160°F
0.485
0. 045
30-to-25
tei60°F
0.841
0.500
At base RVP (11.46 psi), the cost of changing from
35 4§160°F to 30 t§l60°F is $0,485 per barrel and with a
2-psi RVP reduction (to 9.46 psi) the cost is only $0,045 per
barrel. Changing from 30 t§l60°F to 25 I§160°F costs $0,841
per barrel at base RVP and $0,500 per barrel at the 2-psi RVP
reduction level.
These results clearly illustrate the fact that lower-
ing maximum 4£l60°F is more costly for the base-RVP situation
than for the "base-ioinus-2 psiw situation. A way of visualiz-
ing the results is shown in Figure 2-2. The cost of moving
from one situation to another, keeping other premises adopted
for the original study, is indicated by values associated
with the arrows.
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Figure 2-2. Costs for Changing RVP and *@160°F.
(PADD 2 with Fixed NGL Purchases)
Details concerning the cases from which these results
were obtained are presented as "standard-premises" tables in
paragraph 2.3.
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2.2 OXYGENATE CASE RESULTS
Cases covering the same range of vapor pressure and
$»§160°F limitations were run under the condition that all gas-
oline include 7.5 volume percent of a 2-to-1 mix of methanol
and TBA. Results from these runs are presented in parallel
with the summary of the preceding results.
Table 2-3 presents the cost of a 2-psi RVP reduction
at three maximum $§160"^ levels. These results also show that
the cost of controlling one attribute decreases as another
limiting attribute is made more restrictive.
TABLE 2-3
EFFECT OF LOWERING MAXIMUM %gl60°F
WITH 7.5% METHANOL-TBA IN GASOLINE BLEND. PADD 2
($/BBL)
Maximum tgl60°F
35 30 25
Cost of 2-psi RVP Reduction 0.491 0.072 0.000
Table 2-4 presents the cost of reducing 4§160°F at
two levels of maximum RVP.
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TABLE 2-4
COST OF CHANGING MAXIMUM tgl60oF
WITH 7.5% METHANOL-TBA IN GASOLINE BLEND
($/BBL)
Maximum RVP
(psi)
11.46
9.46
35-to-30
30-to-25
«ei60°F
«016O°F
1.039
1.296
0.620
1.224
Figure 2-3 presents a diagram of costs for changing
either RVP or I§160°F. As shown, reducing vapor pressure
costs nothing with maximum I@160°F at 25. This is because all
gasoline grades are below the 11.46 maximum RVP by more than
2 psi when front-end distillation is restricted at this level.
Details concerning the cases from which these results
were obtained are presented as "7.51 2:1 MEOH-TBA" tables in
the next subsection.
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Figure 2-3. Costs for Changing RVP and t@l60°F
With 7.5J Methanol-TBA in Gasoline
(PADD 2 with Fixed NGL Purchases)
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2.3 DETAILS FOR PADD 2 CASES WITH REDUCED MAXIMUM t§l60°F
This subsection contains selected detail for each
case evaluated under Work Assignment 5. Results for standard-
premise cases for PADD 2 with NGL purchases fixed at estimated
availabilities are presented in Table 2-5. Results for the
7.51 methanol-TBA cases are presented in Table 2-6.
For cases involving alcohol blending, gasoline volu-
mes represent only the hydrocarbon portion of the finished
blends. This is done because it was convenient to model the
fixed alcohol content of each situation by adjusting gasoline
specifications and volume demands as if refining produced
gasoline which, with the appropriate alcohol added, would
satisfy finished quality and volume requirements. Predicted
gasoline grade and pool qualities shown under blend detail
results are, however, those for the finished fuels, including
alcohol as appropriate.
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^ TABLE 2-5
^ADD-2^CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
~ ^ ——— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —— — — — — — — — — — —
STANDARD PREMISES
(Sheet 1 of H)
CAT/CHEM, MtPCD
PUR GEM, M-KWH-PCD
X3160 F.= 35X
*3160 F.° 3OX
X3160 F.= 25X
BASE RVP RVP - 2 BASE RVP RVP ¦ 2 BASE RVP
SBS83S8S sssssses
S8SSSSSS
MAX. RVP (ALL GRADES), PSI
PERCENT ALCOHOL
OPERATIONS DETAIL
UTILITY PURCHASES
11.460
0.000
9.460
0.000
11.460
0.000
9.460
0.000
RVP
11.460
0.000
9.460
0.000
446.447 481.772 447.295 473.308 498.626 503.919
13399.641 13925.004 13869.230 14320.516 15216.301 14846.867
RAW MATERIAL PURCHASES, MBPCD
LOU-SULFUR CRUDE
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
SUING CRUDE
161.025
199.678
186.411
202.100
225.649
220.846
PROPANE
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
N-BUTANE
44.750
44.750
44.750
44.750
44.750
44.750
ISO-BUTANE
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
NAT. GASOLINE
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
TOTALS
3160.345
3198.998
3185.731
3201.420
3224.969
3220.166
RAW MATERIAL INCREMENTAL VALUES, S/BBL.
LOW-SULFUR CRUDE
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
SWING CRUDE
PROPANE
N-BUTANE
ISO-BUTANE
NAT. GASOLINE
31.340 31.340
29.980 30.100
30.200 30.200
20.450 20.450
20.980 16.440
23.300 21.690
27.410 28.950
31.470 31.360
30.100 30.070
30.200 30.200
20.450 20.450
28.060 17.580
32.240 23.090
24.180 28.100
31.290 31.280
29.930 29.950
30.200 30.200
20.450 20.450
27.590 23.890
34.530 30.420
23.210 23.340
SELECTED PRODUCT SALES, MBPCD
LEADED REGULAR 261.970 261.970 261.970 261.970 261.970 261.970
UNLEADED GASOLINE 1001.650 1001.650 1001.650 1001.650 1001.650 1001.650
UNLEADED PREMIUM 277.380 277.380 277.380 277.380 277.380 277.380
TOTAL GASOLINE 1541.000 1541.000 1541.000 1541.000 1541.000 1541.000
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TABLE 2-5
PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
STANDARD PREMISES
(Sheet 2 of H)
X3160 F.
> 35X
XS160 F.
- SOX
X3160 F.
= 25X
BASE RVP
RVP • 2
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
cssccsss
It
II
II
II
II
H
II
U
========
BSSSBSSS
e;cscc:=
II
II
II
II
II
tl
II
u
Ltd.PET.GAS.
166.42B
174.067
167.263
t72.637
173.307
172.522
SALABLE COKE (MTPCO)
21.368
24.485
23.361
24.677
25.741
25.934
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL
118.536
136.212
128.721
135.919
155.234
148.544
LIQUID PLANT FUEL
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
RELATIVE CASH FLOW, HSPCO
-8642.559
-9963.219
-9390.070
-10032.687
-10686.848
-10802.781
RELATIVE INVESTMENT, HHt
2663.405
2873.169
2627.099
2861.800
2752.782
3014.182
BLEND DETAILS
RVP • LD. REG.
11.46CI
9.460
7.165
9.46D
6.966
7.400
RVP - DHL. REG.
11. -460
9.460
11.154
9.460
10.169
9.460
RVP - UNL. PRE.
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
RVP - POOL
11.460
9.460
10.531
9.460
9.857
9.110
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-LD. REg!
16.010
14.010
11.065
13.360
10.216
10.650
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-UNL. REG.
16.010
13.754
15.054
13.360
13.419
12.710
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-UNL. PRE.
16.010
11.859
15.360
13.360
14.710
12.710
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-POOL
16.010
13.456
14.431
13.360
13.107
12.360
*3160 DECREES F.-LD. REG.
35.000
35.000
30.000
30.000
25.000
25.000
%o)160 DEGREES F.-UNL. REG.
35.000
33.028
30.000
30.000
25.000
25.000
%ai60 DEGREES F.-UNL. PRE.
35.000
18.451
30.000
30.000
25.000
25.000
*2160 DEGREES F.-POOL
35.000
30.739
30.000
30.000
25.000
25.000
X3210 DEGREES F.-LD. REG.
54.719
55.511
52.049
44.570
39.678
39.739
X3210 DEGREES F.-UNL. REG.
56.287
50.465
48.809
49.705
44.008
43.115
X3210 DEGREES F.-UNL. PRE.
50.676
40.500
47.352
47.951
43.876
44.514
X3210 DEGREES F.-POOL
55.011
49.529
49.097
48.516
43.248
42.793
*3230 DEGREES F.-LD. REG.
60.439
61.443
59.497
50.835
47.053
47.044
W230 DEGREES F.-UML. REG.
63.965
58.284
56.767
58.135
51.997
51.456
X3230 DEGREES F.-UNL. PRE.
63.639
58.007
61.800
62.830
59.340
60.884
X3230 DEGREES F.-POOL
63.307
58.771
58.137
57.739
52.478
52.403
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TABLE 2-5
PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
STANDARD PREMISES
(Sheet 3 of H)
X3160 F.=
35X
X3160 F.
= 30%
XS160 F.
° 25X
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
SSSBCSSS
II
II
II
II
II
II
1)
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
U
E=:a:e:s
88CSSSSS
II
II
II
II
u
tl
II
II
X3330 DEGREES F.
-LD. REG.
91.104
91.611
92.284
89.152
88.990
88.944
X2330 DEGREES F.
•UNL. REG.
93.108
92.319
91.877
92.627
90.942
91.041
*3330 DEGREES F.
-UNL. PRE.
97.550
97.326
97.457
97.601
97.056
97.513
X3330 DEGREES F.
-POOL
93.567
93.100
92.950
92.931
91.711
91.850
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
•LD. REG.
0.740
0.738
0.756
0.746
0.759
0.757
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
•UNL. REG.
0.738
0.747
0.744
0.750
0.751
0.753
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
•UNL. PRE.
0.748
0.759
0.750
0.750
0.752
0.752
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
•POOL
0.740
0.748
0.747
0.749
0.752
0.754
X AROKATICS-
LD. REG.
30.480
29.117
35.571
32.037
36.240
36.178
X AROMATICS-
UNL. REG.
29.932
34.072
32.358
34.575
34.440
35.070
X AROHATICS-
UNL. PRE.
37.446
35.564
36.658
35.064
33.949
34.224
X AROMATICS-
POOL
31.378
33.498
33.679
34.232
34.658
35.106
RESEARCH OCTANE-
UNL. REG.
92.293
92.611
92.057
92.804
92.403
92.726
MOTOR OCTANE -
UNL. REG.
82.000
82.000
B2.000
82.000
82.000
82.000
(R+MJ/2-
UNL. REG.
87.146
87.305
87.028
87.402
87.202
87.363
RESEARCH OCTANE-
UNL. PRE
98.500
98.500
98.500
98.500
98.500
98.500
MOTOR OCTANE-
UNL. PRE.
87.500
87.500
87.500
87.500
87.500
87.500
(R+H)/2-
UNL. PRE.
93.000
93.000
93.000
93.000
93.000
93.000
RESEARCH OCTANE -
LD. REG.
94.500
94.500
94.500
94.500
94.500
94.500
MOTOR OCTANE -
LD. REG.
83.500
83.500
83.500
83.500
83.500
83.500
(R+H)/2-
LD. REG.
89.000
89.000
89.000
89.000
89.000
89.000
SWR-8501A
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2-12
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TABLE 2-5
PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
STANDARD PREMISES
(Sheet of 4)
X3160 F
.= 35X
»160 F.= SOX
»160 F
.« 25X
BASE RVP
RVP • 2
BASE RVP RVP - 2
BASE RVP
RVP • 2
BtSSSBSS
essBtass
BBSBBBBE BSCBBCSC
8BBSSSSS
EBBSSSSB
CASE DIFFERENCES
a==============E-
SUING CRUDE, MBPCD
38.653
15.689
•4.803
N-BUTANE, HBPCD
0.000
o.ooo
0.000
I SO-BUTANE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
NAT. GASOLINE, MDPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, MBPCD
38.653
15.689
-4.803
LIB. PET. GASES, LPG, MBPCD
7.639
5.374
•0.785
SALABLE COKE, MTPCD
3.117
1.316
0.193
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
17.676
7.198
-6.690
LIQUID PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, HtPCD
35.325
26.013
5.293
ELECTRICAL POWER, H-KUH-PCO
525.363
451.286
-369.434
CASH FLOW, MSPCD
-1320.660
-642.617
-115.933
INVESTMENT, MMS
209.764
234.701
261.400
CASE DIFFERENCES,
NORMALIZED PER BARREL OF GASOLINE
SUING CRUDE, BBL./BBL.
0.025
0.010
-0.003
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, BBL./BBL.
0.025
0.010
-0.003
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, S/BBL.
0.023
0.017
0.003
ELECTRICAL POWER, KUH/BBL.
0.341
0.293
-0.240
CASH FLOW, t/BBL.
•0.857
-0.417
-0.075
INVESTMENT, MS/BBL.
0.136
0.152
0.170
SWR-8501A
Bonner E Mooie Management Science
2-13
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TABLE 2-6
PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
7.51 2:1 MEOH-TBA
(Sheet 1 of 4)
XS160 F.
« 35X
X3160 F.
= SOX
JH160 F.= 25X *
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
RVP - 2
ssssssss
8SCSSSSS
S8SSSS5B
II
U
II
II
II
II
U
u
===========
MAX. RVP (ALL GRADES). PS!
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
9.460
PERCENT ALCOHOL
7.500
7.500
7.500
7.500
7.500
OPERATIONS DETAIL
UTILITY PURCHASES
CAT/CHEM, HSPCD
447.612
478.141
507.606
516.562
556.486
PUR GEM, H-KUH-PCD
13606.383
13625.617
14645.121
14370.211
14629.965
RAW MATERIAL PURCHASES, MBPCD
LOU-SULFUR CRUDE
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
SUING CRUDE
72.217
93.318
113.584
114.612
178.114
PROPANE
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
N-BUTANE
44.750
44.750
44.750
44.750
44.750
ISO-BUTANE
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
NAT. GASOLINE
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
TOTALS
3071.537
3092.638
3112.904
3113.932
3177.434
RAW MATERIAL INCREMENTAL VALUES, S/BBL.
LOU-SULFUR CRUDE
31.410
31.560
31.050
31.300
30.930
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
30.060
30.240
29.820
29.930
29.690
SUING CRUDE
30.200
30.200
30.200
30.200
30.200
PROPANE
20.450
20.450
20.450
20.450
20.450
N-BUTANE
22.490
14.340
21.250
17.320
18.880
IS0-8UTANE
28.880
19.440
27.690
23.230
25.250
NAT. GASOLINE
23.380
25.960
20.720
22.260
18.830
SELECTED PRODUCT SALES, MBPCD
LEADED REGULAR
242.322
242.322
242.322
242.322
242.322
UNLEADED GASOLINE
926.526
926.526
926.526
926.526
926.526
UNLEADED PREMIUM
256.576
256.576
256.576
256.576
256.576
TOTAL GASOLINE
1425.424
1425.424
1425.424
1425.424
1425.424
SWR-8501 A
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2-14
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TABLE 2-6
PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
7.5% 2:1 MEOH-TBA
(Sheet 2 of 4)
JB160 f.
« 35%
X3160 F.
0 SOX
JB160 F.= 25X *
BASE RVP
RVP • 2
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
RVP - 2
csssssss
11
It
II
II
tl
II
II
u
u
II
11
II
II
u
II
u
BSSSS33S
II
II
II
II
II
11
II
II
II
II
HQ.PET.GAS.
155.404
167.547
160.961
164.277
169.771
SALABLE COKE (HTPCO)
13.705
16.048
16.415
17.075
22.031
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL
130.611
134.091
156.342
151.359
1B7.959
LIQUID PLANT FUEL
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
RELATIVE CASH FLOW, HSPCO
•6025.574
-6782.969
•7627.410
-7739.000
•9624.625
RELATIVE INVESTMENT, MM$
8089.837
8594.842
8388.084
8656.308
8667.410
BLEND DETAILS
RVP - LD. REG.
9.923
9.460
8.590
9.460
7.552
RVP - UNL. REG.
11.460
9.460
9.788
9.460
8.159
RVP - UNL\ PRE.
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
8.428
RVP - POOL
11.199
9.460
9.685
9.460
8.104
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-LD. REG.
14.473
14.010
12.490
13.360
10.802
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-UNL. REG.
16.010
14.010
13.688
13.360
11.409
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-UNL. PRE.
16.010
14.010
15.360
13.360
11.678
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX-POOL
15.749
14.010
13.785
13.360
11.354
%ai60 DEGREES F.-LD. REG.
35.000
35.000
30.000
30.000
25.000
JB160 DEGREES F.-UNL. REG.
35.000
35.000
30.000
30.000
25.000
X316Q DEGREES F.-UNL. PRE.
35.000
35.000
30.000
30.000
25.000
X3160 DEGREES F.-POOL
35.000
35.000
30.000
30.000
25.000
*3210 DEGREES F.-LD. REG.
43.516
43.745
39.630
40.093
37.084
X3210 DEGREES F.-UNL. REG.
47.120
47.523
41.748
43.426
38.686
JKI210 DEGREES F.-UNL. PRE.
47.782
4B.344
50.537
45.767
42.250
H210 DEGREES F.-POOL
46.627
47.028
42.970
43.280
39.055
X3230 DEGREES F.-LD. REG.
47.860
49.216
44.906
45.332
44.000
*3230 DEGREES F.-UNL. REG.
54.634
55.493
49.819
51.439
47.026
*3230 DEGREES F.-UNL. PRE.
62.256
62.862
65.234
62.281
58.887
X3230 DEGREES F.-POOL
54.854
55.752
51.758
52.352
48.647
SWR-8501 A
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2-15
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TABLE 2-6
PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
7.5% 2:1 MEOH-TBA
(Sheet 3 of M)
XS160 F.
- 35X
Xai60 F.
- SOX
X3160 F.= 25X *
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
BASE RVP
RVP - 2
RVP - 2
ssssaess
esssssss
========
========
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
(1
tl
II
X3330 DEGREES F.-LD. REG.
86.205
B8.022
85.279
86.379
86.519
X3330 DEGREES F.-UNL. REG.
91.433
92.186
89.504
90.874
89.407
X3330 DEGREES F.-UNL. PRE.
96.478
96.103
97.843
97.677
95.230
X3330 DEGREES F.-POOL
91.452
92.1B3
90.287
91.334
89.964
SPECIFIC GRAVITY-LD. REG.
0.692
0.699
0.703
0.702
0.717
SPECIFIC GRAVITr-UNL. REG.
0.694
0.704
0.702
0.700
0.711
SPECIFIC GRAVITY-UNL. PRE.
0.696
0.676
0.689
0.698
0.685
SPECIFIC GRAVITY-POOL
0.694
0.698
0.700
0.700
0.707
X AROMATICS- LD. REG.
34.386
38.042
37.771
37.897
43.303
X AROMATICS- UNL. REG.
36.750
42.230
38.810
38.433
42.828
X AROMATICS- UNL. PRE.
37.762
25.745
34.214
36.153
25.685
X AROMATICS- POOL
36.530
38.551
37.806
37.931
39.823
RESEARCH OCTANE- UNL. REG.
91.214
94.326
94.192
94.065
95.349
MOTOR OCTANE- UNL. REG.
82.000
32.000
82.000
£2.000
82.000
(RtH)/2- UNL. REG.
87.607
88.163
88.096
£8.033
88.674
RESEARCH OCTANE- UNL. fr?E.
99.730
98.500
98.732
99.720
98.500
MOTOR OCTANE- UNL. PRE.
87.500
87.500
87.500
87.500
87.500
(R+M)/2- UNL. PRE.
93.615
93.000
93.116
93.610
93.000
RESEARCH OCTANE- LD. REG.
94.500
94.500
94.500
94.500
94.500
MOTOR OCTANE- LD. REG.
83.500
83.500
83.500
83.500
83.500
CR+H)/2- LD. REG.
89.000
89.000
89.000
89.000
89.000
SWR-8501A
Bonner E Monte Management Science
2-16
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TABLE 2-6
PADD-2 CASE RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL PURCHASES
7.5* 2:1 MEOH-TBA
(Sheet 4 of 4)
*3160 F.= 35%
X9160 F.e JOX
X3160 F.» 25X •
BASE RVP RVP - 2
BASE RVP RVP - 2
Bsesessa sasssass
RVP • 2
68SSS8SSSSS
CASE DIFFERENCES
BSSSSBSSS83SSSSCS
SUING CRUDE, MBPCD 21.101
H-BUTANE, MBPCD 0.000
ISO-BUTANE, MBPCD 0.000
NAT. GASOLINE, KDPCD 0.000
1.028
0.000
0.000
0.000
63.502
0.000
0.000
0.000
TOTAL RAU MATERIALS, MBPCD 21.101
1.028
63.502
LIQ. PET. GASES, LPG, MBPCD 12.143
SALABLE COKE, MTPCO 2.343
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL, MBPCD 3.480
LIQUID PLANT FUEL, MBPCD 0.000
3.316
0.660
¦4.983
0.000
5.494
4.956
36.600
0.000
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, MSPCD 30.529
ELECTRICAL POWER, M-KVH-PCD 19.234
8.956
-274.910
39.924
259.754
CASH FLOW, MtPCD -757.395
INVESTMENT, MMS 505.005
-111.590
268.224
-1885.625
11.102
CASE DIFFERENCES,
NORMALIZED PER BARREL OF GASOLINE
SUING CRUDE, BBL./BBL. 0.014
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, BBL./BBL. 0.014
0.001
0.001
0.041
0.041
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, $/BBL. 0.020
ELECTRICAL POWER, KUH/BBL. 0.012
0.006
-0.178
0.026
0.169
CASH FLOW, t/BBL. -0.491
INVESTMENT, MS/BBL. 0.328
-0.072
0.174
-1.224
0.007
* RVP-2 330% 3160 USED
AS "BASE CASE"
SWR-8501A
(tanner 6 Moore Management Science
2-17
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SECTION 3
PADD 2 CASES WITH TWO ETHANOL GRADES
Standard premises of the original study called for
all gasoline to include alcohol when studying alcohol inclu-
sion. To reflect more exactly the situation of current use,
two additional gasoline grades were added to the original
PADD 2 model to allow for the fact that only a snail fraction
of total gasoline contains ethanol. The added grades were
designed to allow part of leaded and unleaded regular demands
to be blended with a fixed percent of ethanol. This situa-
tion, unlike present gasohol production, assumes that the
refiner must recognize the effect of ethanol on finished
gasoline properties. A further change from original study
premises was allowing normal butane purchase to vary at a
cost of $20.26 per barrel.* Iso-butane and natural gasoline
purchases were fixed at forecast availabilities. In other
respects, the PADD 2 model was unchanged from that used in
the original study.
Two sets of cases were run with the augmented PADD 2
model. One set required that seven percent of leaded and
unleaded regular contain ten percent ethanol. The other set
required that fourteen percent of these two grades contain
five percent ethanol. Results from these two sets of cases
are discussed in subsections 3.1 and 3 - 2, respectively.
Details for these cases are presented in subsection 3-3.
•Petrochemical floor price. Source: Jack Faucett Assoc., "The
Butane Industry: An Overview and Analysis of the Effects of
Gasoline Volatility Control on Process and Demand", Draft
Report, Work Assignment 5 of Contract 68-03-3244, Submitted
to EPA, 30 May 1985.
SWR-850 1A
Bonner 6 Moore Management Science
3-1
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3.1 TEN-PERCENT ETHANOL CASES
Four cases requiring that seven percent of leaded
regular and unleaded regular each contain ten volume percent
ethanol were run as defined by Task 1 of Work Assignment 6.*
Vapor pressure and IS160°F maxima for these cases are pre-
sented in Table 3-1 • It should be noted that the maximum
TABLE 3-1
VOLATILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR 10* ETHANOL CASES
(MAXIMUM)
Case
GASOLINES
No
Alcohol
With 101
Ethanol
RVP.psi
IS 160°F
RVP.psi
IS160°F
1
11.46
35
11.46
45
2
9.46
35
9.45
45
3
11.46
35
11.46
35
4
9.46
25
9.46
25
IS160°F imposed on ethanol blends was relaxed (made larger)
in recognition of the impact of ethanol on that property and
the consequential results obtained in the original study.
Costs of changing volatility derived from these
cases are summarized in Table 3-2.
•Contract No. 68 — 03—32^^
SWR-8501A D ¦. lD 3-2
Banner C Monre Management Science
-------
TABLE 3-2
VOLATILITY REDUCTION COSTS
{WITH 10* ETHANOL)
CASE
1 2
3
H
Property Changed
RVP
1 § 160
RVP & 10160
Cost of Change, $/BBL
(Base) 0.800
0.023
1.579
These results may be compared (with certain quali-
fications) to the control costs with normal butane purchases
fixed at forecast availability derived from the original
study. A 2-psi reduction in RVP showed a cost of 0.857 $/BBL
of gasoline.* With ten percent ethanol in all grades (and
with I£160°F at a maximum of 35) the cost of controlling RVP
was shown to be zero.*" The fact that these suppletne ital
eases involve two additional grades and that these grades are
allowed a higher maximum for %§l60°Ft makes it impossible to
separate the cost effects of these two simultaneous changes.
The lower cost for Case 2 compared to the original study cost
(without ethanol), namely, 0.800 $/BBL versus 0.857 $/BBL is
due mainly to the relaxed $@160°F on the ethanol-containing
blends. This analysis is supported by the cost effect of
changing I§160°F on a small part of gasoline as shown by
Case 3 cost results. Added together, the costs for Cases 2
and 3 are slightly less than the 0.857 cost from the original
*See Table 3-2, pg. 3-^ of original study report.
**See Paragraph 3.2.2, pg. 3-16 of original report.
SWR-850 1 A
Bonner 8 Moots Management Science
3-3
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study. This small difference, 0.03*1 $/BBL, is a reflection
of the octane value contributed by ethanol and the smaller
volume of (hydrocarbon) gasoline needed to meet forecasted
demands. (Note that no cost for the blended ethanol is
reflected in these results.) Another difference is the lower
cost and open purchase of normal butane allowed in these
cases. While iso-butane and natural gasoline purchases
were fixed at forecasted availabilities, normal butane pur-
chase was allowed to vary at a cost of $20.25 per barrel.
Variations in swing crude and normal butane purchases are
summarized in Table 3-3>
TABLE 3-3
RAW MATERIAL VARIATIONS: 10t ETHANOL CASES
(MBPCD)
CASE
1
2
3
k
Swing Crude
129. 133
209.278
135.484
183.096
Normal Butane
74.857
12.133
72.386
84.458
TOTAL
>>203.990
221.411
207.870
267.554
The butane cost difference from that used in the
original study cases and variations from the fixed purchase,
namely, $23.20 per barrel and 44.750 MBPCD, respectively,
preclude assigning specific contributions to cost comparisons
with those from original study cases.
The difference between Case 4 and Case 2 costs,
namely, 0.780 $/BBL is a reflection of the reduction in
allowable %@160°F since both cases were at a 9.46 maximum
RVP. It must be noted that both ethanol-containing blends
in Case 4 were below maximum RVP as would be expected from
results for ethanol cases from the original study.
SWR-8501A
Bonnet C Moors Management Science
3-4
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3.2 FIVE-PERCENT ETHANOL CASES
Four cases requiring that fourteen percent of leaded
and unleaded regular each contain five volume percent ethanol
were run as defined by Task 4 of Work Assignment 13•* Vapor
pressure and t§l60°F maxima for these cases are presented in
Table 3-4.
TABLE 3-4
VOLATILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR 5* ETHANOL CASES
(MAXIMUM)
GASOLINES
No Alcohol
With 51
Ethanol
Case
RVP, psi
Jg160°F
RVP, psi
t§160°F
1
11.46
35
11.46
40
2
9.46
35
9.46
40
3
11.46
35
11.46
35
4
9.46
25
9.46
25
Note that the ethanol-containing blends have a maxi-
mum of 40 t§l60°F instead of 45 for the first two cases.
This change makes comparison between Cases 1 and 2 for the
10-percent and 5-percent ethanol sets difficult because alco-
hol content, volume of alcohol-containing gasoline and J@160°F
are all three different between the two sets.
Costs of changing volatility derived from these cases
are summarized in Table 3-5.
•Contract No. 68-03-3192
SWR-8501A
Bonner & Moore Management Science
3-5
-------
TABLE 3-5
VOLATILITY REDUCTION COSTS
(WITH 51 ETHANOL)
CASE
1 2
3
4
Property Changed
FVP
*§160
RVP 4 *0160
Cost of Change, $/BBL
(Base) 0.801
0.019
1.540
Volatility reduction costs where ethanol-containing
gasolines have 5 rather than 10 percent alcohol are nearly
the same. Costs of reducing vapor pressure by 2 psi differ
by less than two parts per thousand. Costs for reducing
I@160°F alone or with reducing vapor pressure are similar but
vary more because the non-linear distillation behavior of
alcohol is less pronounced than its vapor pressure behavior.
In other words, the vapor pressure contribution of ethanol
is largely independent of concentration and %@160°F effect is
only partially independent of concentration.
A comparison of the relative costs of the two base
cases shows an increase of 0.023 $/BBL for the 51 ethanol
case because (almost totally) of the lower maximum I§160°F
for the ethanol-containing grades. Cost differences between
similar pairs of the two sets of ethanol-containing cases are
presented in Table 3-6.
SWR-8501A
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3-6
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TABLE 3-6
COST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ETHANOL CASES
($/BBL)
CASE
1
2 3
4
5l-Case Costs
Less 10%-Case Costs
0.023
0.024 0.018
-0.016
The Case-4 cost difference is negative largely
because the 1Ol-ethanol-containg grades were limited only
by %@160°F and were below the maximum allowed RVP while the
5%-ethanol-containing grades were limited by RVP and by
t@l60°F. Again, these differences reflect the non-linear
blending behavior of ethanol in gasoline.
Variations in swing crude and normal butane purchases
are summarized in Table 3-7. These compare closely with
similar results for the previous set (see Table 3-3).
TABLE 3-7
RAW MATERIAL VARIATIONS: 5* ETHANOL CASES
(MBPCD)
CASE
1
2
3
4
Swing Crude
131
m
rn
CO
•
211.119
129-624
177.918
Normal Butane
72
.764
10.563
79.175
91.050
TOTAL
204
.597
221.682
208.799
268.968
SWR-8501A
Bonner C Moore Management Science
3-7
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3.3 DETAILS FOF PADD 2 CASES WITH 5% AND 10* ETHANOL
This subsection presents, in Table 3-8> selected
detail for each case evaluated under Work Assignment 6,
Task 1* and Work Assignment 13, Task 4.**
For those blends involving alcohol reported volumes
represent only the hydrocarbon portion of the finished blends.
This is done because it was convenient to model the fixed
alcohol content of each situation by adjusting gasoline spe-
cifications and volume demands as if refining produced gaso-
line which, with the appropriate alcohol added, would satisfy
finished quality and volume requirements. Predicted gasoline
grade and pool qualities shown under blend detail results
are, however, those for the finished fuels, including alcohol
as appropriate.
•Contract No. 68-03-3244
•"Contract No. 68-03-3192
SWR-8501A
Bonner B Moore Management Science
3-8
-------
CO
s:
m
i
oo
VJ1
o
TABLE 3-8
PADD 2 CASE RESULTS WITH 10* and 5* ETHANOL BLENDS
(Sheet 1 of 5)
ETHANOL 3 10X IN TWO EXTRA BLENDS
ETHANOL 3 5X IN TWO EXTRA BLENDS
*
160335/45
160335/45
160335/35
160325/25
160335/40
160335/40
160335/35
160825/25
BASE
LOW
BASE
LOW
BASE
LOW
BASE
LOW
MAX. RVP (ALL GRADES), PSI
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
PERCENT ALCOHOL
10.000
10.000
10.000
10.000
5.000
5.000
5.000
S.000
OPERATIONS DETAH
UTILITY PURCHASES
CAT/CHEM, MtPCO
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
PVR GEN, M-KUH-PCO
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
RAU MATERIAL PURCHASES, MBPCD
LOW-SULFUR CRUDE
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
2295.000
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
486.000
SUING CRUDE
129.133
209.278
135.484
183.096
131.833
211.119
129.624
177.918
PROPANE
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
83.630
N-BUTANE
74.857
12.133
72.386
84.458
72.764
10.563
79.175
91.050
I SO-BUTANE
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
36.000
NAT. GSOLINE
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
53.940
TOTAL
3158.559
3175.981
3162.439
3222.124
3159.166
3176.252
3163.369
3223.538
RAU MATERIAL INCREMENTAL VALUES
, S/BBL.
LOW-SULFUR CRUDE
31.280
31.230
31.310
31.150
31.280
31.230
31.280
31.150
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
29.950
29.930
29.960
29.870
29.950
29.930
29.950
29.860
SUING CRUDE
30.420
30.420
30.420
30.420
30.420
30.420
30.420
30.420
PROPANE
20.450
20.450
20.450
20.450
20.450
20.450
20.450
20.450
N-BUTANE
20.260
20.260
20.260
20.260
20.260
20.260
20.260
20.260
I SO-BUTANE
23.020
24.670
22.560
26.410
23.020
24.670
23.020
26.420
NAT. GSOLINE
27.730
29.060
27.300
23.160
27.730
29.060
27.730
22.970
OJ
I
-------
TABLE 3-8
in
s:
ra
a>
ui
o
CO
CO
CO
CD
3
OO
I
PADD
2 CASE
RESULTS WITH
10% and
5* ETHANOL
BLENDS
(Sheet
2 of 5)
ETHANOL 3 10X IN
TWO EXTRA BLENDS
ETHANOL 3 5% IN TWO EXTRA BLENDS
160335/45
160335/45
160335/35
160325/25
160335/40
160335/40
160335/35
160325/25
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOW
BASE
LOW
BASE
LOW
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
==========
S5SSSSS1S3
3SSS8SS3S3
SELECTED PRODUCT SALES, MBPCD
LEADED REGULAR
243.632
243.632
243.632
243.632
225.294
225.294
225.294
225.294
UMLEAOED REGULAR
931.534
931.534
931.534
931.534
861.419
861.419
861.419
861.419
UNLEADED PREMIUM
277.380
277.380
277.380
277.380
277.380
277.380
277.380
277.380
LEADED U/ ETHONAL
16.504
16.504
16.504
16.504
34.842
34.842
34.842
34.842
UNLEADED U/ ETHONAL
63.104
63.104
63.104
63.104
133.219
133.219
133.219
133.219
TOTAL GASOLINE
1532.154
1532.154
1532.154
1532.154
1532.154
1532.154
1532.154
1532.154
LIQ. PET. GAS
167.019
175.141
165.962
174.306
167.423
175.145
166.291
173.434
SALABLE COKE (MTPCD)
18.894
25.232
19.398
22.573
19.108
25.378
18.933
22.015
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL
119.464
131.151
119.986
150.706
119.838
131.368
120.757
152.582
LIQUID PLANT FUEL
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
RELATIVE CASH FLOW, M$PCD
-8048.133
-9280.797
-8083.102
-10481.160
-8082.750
-9316.988
-8111.445
-10456.477
RELATIVE INVESTMENT, KHS
2553.164
2723.807
2443.616
3179.336
2554.039
2735.663
2504.409
3150.850
BLEND DETAILS
RVP - LD. REG.
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
RVP • UNL. REG.
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
RVP - UNL. PRE.
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
RVP - LD. U/ ETOH
11.460
9.460
11.460
5.621
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
RVP - UNL U/ ETOH
11.460
9.460
11.460
5.713
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
RVP - POOL
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.244
11.460
9.460
11.460
9.460
-------
w
t
30
I
oo
U1
o
TABLE 3-8
PADP 2 CftSE RESULTS WITH 10% and 51 ETHANOL BLENDS
(Sheet 3 of 5)
ETHANOL 3 10X IN TWO EXTRA BLENDS
ETHANOI S 5* IN TUO EXTRA BLENDS
cu
CC3
CD
3
CD
OJ
I
<
160335/45
160335/45
160335/35
160325/25
*
160335/40
160335/40
160335/35
160325/25
DETAILS (CONT.
)
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOU
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX -
LD. REG.
16.010
14.010
16.010
12.710
16.010
14.010
16.010
12.710
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX -
UNL. REG.
16.010
14.010
16.010
12.710
16.010
14.010
16.010
12.710
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX -
UNL. PRE.
16.010
12.092
16.010
12.710
16.010
12.053
16.010
12.710
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX -
LD. U/ ETON
17.310
15.310
16.010
8.871
16.660
14.660
16.010
12.710
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX -
UNL U/ ETOH
17.310
15.310
16.010
8.963
16.660
14.660
16.010
12.710
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX -
POOL
16.085
13.739
16.010
12.494
16.0B5
13.732
16.010
12.710
*3160 DEGREES
F. -
LD. REG.
35.000
35.000
35.000
25.000
35.000
35.000
35.000
25.000
X3160 DEGREES
F. -
UNL. REG.
35.000
35.000
35.000
25.000
35.030
35.000
35.000
25.000
XSSI60 DEGREES
F. -
UNL. PRE.
35.000
20.243
35.000
25.000
35.000
19.942
35.000
25.000
X3160 DEGREES
F. -
LO. U/ ETOH
45.000
45.000
35.000
25.000
40.000
40.000
35.000
25.000
X3160 DEGREES
F. -
UNL U/ ETOH
45.000
45.000
35.000
25.000
40.000
40.000
35.000
25.000
X3160 DEGREES
F. -
POOL
35.574
32.918
35.000
25.000
35.574
32.864
35.000
25.000
X3210 DEGREES
F. -
LO. REG.
52.515
56.629
53.950
40.027
53.412
56.629
53.708
40.027
*3210 DEGREES
F. -
UNL. REG.
55.253
54.122
54.422
43.050
55.618
54.336
53.444
43.400
*3210 DEGREES
F. -
UNL. PRE.
50.676
41.682
50.676
44.646
50.676
41.483
50.676
44.646
X3210 DEGREES
F. -
LD. W/ ETOH
51.230
57.000
45.167
37.822
48.276
57.000
44.889
39.324
*3210 DEGREES
F. -
UNL U/ ETOH
57.000
57.000
47.292
37.283
53.279
54.031
55.766
38.382
*3210 DEGREES
F. -
POOL
54.028
52.444
53.239
42.535
54.019
52.393
52.992
42.578
*3230 DEGREES
F. -
LD. REG.
58.090
62.815
59.669
47.000
59.047
62.815
59.362
47.000
*3230 DEGREES
F. -
UNL. REG.
63.611
62.605
62.580
51.356
64.885
63.466
61.694
52.000
*3230 DEGREES
F. -
UNL. PRE.
63.639
58.672
63.639
60.998
63.639
58.560
63.638
60.998
*3230 DEGREES
F. -
LD. W/ ETOH
51.948
59.809
47.568
44.000
50.801
60.116
48.127
44.000
*3230 DEGREES
F. -
UNL U/ ETOH
54.712
56.601
47.872
44.000
50.977
54.012
58.461
44.000
X3230 DEGREES
F. -
POOL
62.199
61.624
61.463
51.981
62.206
61.548
61.198
51.970
*3330 DEGREES
F. -
LD. REG.
90.400
92.017
90.938
88.725
90.687
92.017
90.781
88.725
*3330 DEGREES
F. ¦
UNL. REG.
93.746
94.322
93.622
90.856
95.164
95.093
93.240
91.193
*3330 DEGREES
F. •
UNL. PRE.
97.550
97.354
97.550
97.527
97.550
97.349
97.550
97.527
*3330 DEGREES
F. -
LD. U/ ETOH
85.803
89.776
84.957
82.303
87.085
89.653
87.004
86.998
7.3330 DEGREES
F. •
UNL U/ ETOH
84.320
84.362
85.232
85.661
81.000
85.173
91.102
86.329
*3330 DEGREES
F. ¦
POOL
93.378
93.996
93.420
91.382
93.457
94.017
93.314
91.430
-------
CO
ro
i
oo
o
TABLE 3-8
PADD 2 CASE RESULTS WITH 10% and 5% ETHANOL BLENDS
(Sheet 4 of 5)
ETHANOl
a iox in
TWO EXTRA BLENDS
ETHANO. 8 5* IN TWO EXTRA BLENDS
160335/45
160335/45
160335/35
160325/25
160335/40
160335/40
160335/35
160325/25
BLEND DETAILS (CONT.)
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOW
BASE
LOU
s:=3ssssa>
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- LO. REG.
0.739
0.743
0.740
0.756
0.739
0.743
0.739
0.756
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- UNL. REG.
0.739
0^745
0.743
0.751
0.739
0.743
0.743
0.754
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- UNL. PRE.
0.748
0.758
0.748
0.752
0.748
0.758
0.748
0.752
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- LO. U/ ETOH
0.740
0.753
0.749
0.758
0.740
0.745
0.749
0.766
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- UNL U/ ETOH
0.733
0.750
0.738
0.754
0.740
0.760
0.728
0.732
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- POOL
0.741
0.747
0.743
0.752
0.741
0.748
0.742
0.752
X AROMATICS
- LD. REG.
29.998
31.245
30.479
35.883
30.195
31.245
30.259
35.883
X AROMATICS
- UNL. REG.
30.165
33.364
32.643
34.358
29.335
31.376
32.105
36.003
X AROMATICS
- UHL. PRE.
37.446
35.720
37.446
34.566
37.446
35.694
37.446
34.566
X AROMATICS
- ID. W/ ETOH
20.723
27.174
21.879
19.647
25.416
26.575
28.799
34.139
X AROMATICS
- UNL W/ ETOH
22.789
26.437
18.596
18.328
32.289
43.027
21.071
14.225
X AROMATICS
- POOL
31.001
33.064
32.398
33.732
31.096
33.080
31.714
33.700
RESEARCH OCTANE
LD. REG.
93.275
93.795
93.329
93.436
93.309
93.795
93.320
93.436
MOTOR OCTAME
LD. REG.
84.725
84.205
84.671
84.564
84.691
84.205
84.680
84.564
-------
i/i
33
i
oo
*J1
o
LO
I
LO
TABLE
oo
1
m
PADD 2
CASE
RESULTS WITH
10? arid
5% ETHANOL
BLENDS
(Sheet
5 of 5)
ETHANOL
a iox in
TWO EXTRA BLENDS
ETHANOL S 5X IN TWO EXTRA BLENDS
r«cc nitccDcurcc *
================ 160335/45
160935/45
160335/35
160925/25
160335/40
160335/40
160335/35
160325/25
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOW
BASE
LOU
BASE
LOU
CASE REFERENCE:
(1>
(2)
(3)
(4)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
SUING CRUDE, HBPCD
60.145
6.351
53.963
79.286
-2-209
46.085
M-BUTANE, HBPCD
-62.724
-2.471
9.601
-62.201
6.411
18.286
I SO-BUTANE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
NAT. GASOLINE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, HBPCD
17.422
3.880
63.565
17.086
4.203
64.372
L1Q. PET. GASES, LPG, MBPCD
B. 122
-1.057
7.287
7.722
-1.132
6.0IT
SALABLE COKE, MTPCO
6.336
0.504
3.679
6.270
-0.175
2.907
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
11.687
0.522
31.242
11.530
0.919
32.744
LIQUID PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, HtPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
ELECTRICAL POWER, H-ICVH-PCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
CASH FLOW, HtPCD
-1232.664
-34.969
-2433.027
-1234.238
-28.695
-2373.727
INVENTHENT, NHS
170.643
-109.543
626.172
181.624
-49.630
596.811
CASE DIFFERENCES
NORMALIZED PER BARREL OF GASOLINE
SUING CRUDE, BBL./BBL.
0.052
0.004
0.035
0.051
-0.001
0.030
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, BBL./BBL.
0.011
0.003
0.041
0.011
0.003
0.042
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, S/B8L.
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
ELECTRICAL POWER, KUH/BBL.
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
CASH FLOW, S/BBL.
-0.800
•0.023
-1.579
-0.801
-0.019
-1.540
INVENTHENT, V86L .
0.111
•0.071
0.406
0.118
-0.032
0.3B7
-------
SECTION ll
PADD 3 CASES WITH 2:1 METHANOL-TBA
AND CASE AT 11.12 RVP AND 25 tei6Q°F
Task 1 of Work Assignment 13* called for three cases
for PADD 3 in which 7.5 volume percent of a 2: 1 methanol-TBA
mix is blended into all gasoline grades. It also specified a
case without alcohol at base (11.12 psi) RVP and 25 4§160°F
maxima. All four cases required NGL purchases to be fixed at
forecast availabilities. Results from these four cases are
reported in this section and compared to corresponding
results from the original study.
4. 1 RESULTS FROM 2:1 METHANOL-TBA CASES
Three cases requiring a fixed 7.5 percent of 2:1 mix
of methanol and TBA in all grades of gasoline were run with
NGL purchases fixed at forecast availabilities. The original
study included a pair of similar cases, but allowed NGL pur-
chases to vary up to maximum availabilities. One of the
three cases run under this supplemental series reduced the
maximum t{M60°F to 30. No comparable case was run in the
original study.
Table 4-1 presents the results fo the three cases
mentioned above.
•Contract No. 68-03-3192
SWR-8501A n PM M »n 1-1
Bonner G Moore Management Science
-------
TABLE 4-1
PADD 3 RESULTS FOR FIXED NGL AND 7.5* METHANOL-TBA
Task 1, Work
Assignment
13 Case
1
2
3
Maximum RVP, psi
11.12
9.12
9.12
Maximum *§160°F
35
35
30
Cost Above Base Case, $/BBL
-
0.597
0.962
Cost of Lower *@160°F, $/BBL
0.365
The original study results with 7.5* methanol-TBA
showed a cost of 0.532 $/BBL for a 2-psi decrease in maximum
RVP which is slightly lower (as would be expected) than the
cost (in Table 1-1) with NGL purchases fixed. Restricting
the maximum *§160CF to 30 rather than 35 adds 0.365 &/BBL.
This latter effect is approximately 60 percent of the cost
change shown for PADD 2 (see Table 2-4 of this supplemental
report). Based on other results from these two regional
models, this lower cost effect for PADD 3 is consistent with
other characteristics shown for these regions and reflects
the general oversupply of gasoline-boiling-range material in
the PADD 2 results.
4.2 RESULTS WITH FIXED NGL, 11.12 RVP, AND 25 *§160°F
Cost difference between this supplemental case and
the comparable base case from the original study (see Table
4-6 of the original study report) shows an increase of 0.736
$/BBL for lowering the maximum allowed *
-------
H.3 DETAILS FOR PADD 3 CASES WITH 7.5* METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 *§160°F
This subsection presents, in Table H-2, selected
detail for each case evaluated in Task 1.
For those blends involving alcohol reported volumes
represent only the hydrocarbon portion of the finished blends.
This is done because it was convenient to model the fixed
alcohol content of each situation by adjusting gasoline
specifications and volume demands as if refining produced
gasoline which, with the appropriate alcohol added, would
satisfy finished quality and volume requirements. Predicted
gasoline grade and pool qualities shown under blend detail
results are, however those for the finished fuels, including
alcohol as appropriate.
4-3
-------
TABLE 4-2
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS WITH 7.5* METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 *gl6Q°F
(Sheet 1 of 5)
V/ 7.5X 2:1 METHANOL-TBA
FIXED
NGL
<
160335
160335
160330
160335
160325
BASE
LOU
LOW
11.120
11.120
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
|l
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
U
II
tl
tl
1)
It
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
it
II
MAX. RVP (ALL GRADES), PSI
11.120
9.120
9.120
11.120
11.120
PERCENT ALCOHOL
7.500
7.500
7.500
0.000
0.000
OPERATIONS DETAIL
UTILITY PURCHASES
CAT/CHEN, HSPCD
917.B61
1046.817
1016.591
989.619
1048.410
PWR EEK, M-ICUH-PCD
29084.316
30707.164
30002.082
30539.926
31969.742
RAU MATERIAL PURCHASES, HBPCD
LOW-SULFUR CRUDE
2578.000
2578.000
2578.000
2578.000
2578.000
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
2051.000
2051.000
2051.000
2051.000
20S1.000
SUING CRUDE
1137.816
1175.231
1197.235
1351.765
1421.234
PROPANE
119.100
119.100
119.100
119.100
119.100
N-BUTANE
68.040
68.040
68.040
68.040
68.040
I SO-BUTANE
38.030
38.030
38.030
38.030
38.030
NAT. GSOLINE
150.970
150.970
150.970
150.970
150.970
TOTAL
6142.949
6180.363
6202.367
6356.905
6426.363
RAU MATERIAL INCREMENTAL VALUES, S/BBL.
LOW-SULFUR CRUDE
31.460
31.500
31.510
31.610
31.640
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
30.040
30.080
30.070
30.030
30.040
SUING CRUDE
29.820
29.820
29.820
29.820
29.820
PROPANE
20.000
20.000
20.000
20.000
20.000
N-BUTANE
26.100
13.610
22.880
29.700
27.300
ISO-BUTANE
32.820
18.420
29.520
31.160
34.220
NAT. GSOLINE
24.880
28.630
23.740
29.480
24.410
SWR-8501A
Bonner G Moore Management Science
-------
TABLE 4-2
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS WITH 7.5% METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 5tei60°F
(Sheet 2 of 5)
W/ 7.5X 2:1 HETHANOL-TBA
FIXED
NGL
160335
BASE
160335
LOU
160330
LOW
essssssscs
160335
11.120
160325
11.120
SELECTED PRODUCT SALES, MBPCD
LEADED REGULAR
UNLEADED REGULAR
UNLEADED PREMIUM
447.219
1709.955
473.526
447.219
1709.955
473.526
447.219
1709.955
473.526
483.479
1848.600
511.920
483.479
1848.600
511.920
TOTAL GASOLINE
2630.700
2630.700
2630.700
2843.999
2843.999
LIO. PET. GAS
SALABLE COKE (MTPCD)
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL
LIQUID PLANT FUEL
257.086
121.087
197.490
0.000
286.478
122.623
220.005
0.000
263.759
126.535
221.448
0.000
276.341
141.029
213.159
0.000
297.224
143.206
234.641
0.000
RELATIVE CASH FLOW, MtPCD
-42011.355
¦43708.812
-44747.098
¦48554.684
50440.902
RELATIVE INVESTMENT, HH$
5289.870
6286.283
6301.984
4638.352
5983.812
SWR-8501 A
Bonner £ Moore Managemenl Science
1-5
-------
TABLE 4-2
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS WITH 7.5t METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 tei60°F
(Sheet 3 of 5)
W/ 7.5X 2:1 METHANOL-TBA
FIXED
NGL
160335
160335
160330
160335
160325
BASE
LOU
LOU
11.120
11.120
==========
S3SCCSSSSS
========== ==========
BLEND DETAILS
C============
RVP •
LD. REG.
8.834
9.120
8.899
11.120
6.382
RVP -
UML. REG.
11.120
9.120
9.120
11.120
9.879
RVP •
UNL. PRE.
11.120
9.120
9.120
11.120
11.120
RVP -
POOL
10.731
9.120
9.082
11.120
9.508
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- 10. REG.
13.384
13.670
12.799
15.670
9.632
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- UNL. REG.
15.670
13.670
13.020
15.607
13.129
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- UNL. PRE.
15.670
13.670
13.020
14.557
14.370
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- POOL
15.281
13.670
12.982
15.429
12.75B
K1160 DEGREES F.
- LO. REG.
35.000
35.000
30.000
35.000
25.000
X3160 DEGREES F.
- UNL. REG.
35.000
35.000
30.000
34.515
25.000
33160 DEGREES F.
- UNL. PRE.
35.000
35.000
30.000
26.442
25.000
X3160 DEGREES F.
- POOL
35.000
35.000
30.000
33.144
25.000
X3210 DEGREES F.
- LD. REG.
52.905
54.770
40.141
54.911
48.711
X3210 DEGREES F.
- UNL. REG.
55.083
56.383
48.500
57.000
45.500
*3210 DEGREES F.
- UNL. PRE.
52.676
55.062
45.836
44.861
43.552
X3210 DEGREES F.
• POOL ,
54.279
55.871
46.599
54.460
45.695
X3230 DEGREES F.
V
• LD. REG.
5B.285
60.969
45.057
61.905
44.000
*3230 DEGREES F.
- UNL. REG.
62.030
64.933
56.211
63.135
44.000
X3230 DEGREES F.
- UNL. PRE.
68.817
71.580
63.224
59.852
44.000
J3230 DEGREES F.
- POOL
62.615
65.455
55.577
62.335
44.000
%3330 DEGREES F.
• LD. REG.
88.137
92.821
85.860
93.137
91.965
53330 DEGREES F.
- UNL. REG.
92.934
91.437
91.203
91.200
89.292
X3330 DEGREES F.
• UNL. PRE.
98.284
98.061
95.432
96.832
96.581
XS330 DEGREES F.
- POOL
93.082
92.865
91.056
92.543
91.058
SWR-8501A
Bonner B Moote Management Science
4-6
-------
TABLE U-2
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS WITH 7.5% METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 t€l60°F
(Sheet 4 of 5)
U/ 7.5X 2:1 METHANOL-TBA
FIXED
NGL
160335
160335
160330
160335
160325
BASE
LOU
LOW
11.120
11.120
BLEND DETAILS (CONT.)
SPECIFIC GRAVITY - LD. REG.
0.820
0.821
0.824
0.748
0.764
SPECIFIC GRAVITY - UNL. REG.
0.815
0.816
0.820
0.739
0.751
SPECIFIC GRAVITY - UNL. PRE.
0.798
0.793
0.811
0.748
0.741
SPECIFIC GRAVITY - POOL
0.813
0.813
0.819
0.742
0.752
XAROMATICS - LD. REG.
22.922
24.370
24.622
34.587
38.316
X AROMATICS - UNL. REG.
24.332
24.422
24.738
31.322
35.027
X AROHATICS - UNL. PRE.
13.088
7.359
16.620
30.945
25.859
X AROMATICS - POOL
22.068
21.342
23.257
31.809
33.936
RESEARCH OCTANE - LD. REG.
94.500
94.500
94.500
94.500
94.083
MOTOR OCTANE - LD. REG.
83.500
83.500
83.500
83.500
83.917
(R+MJ/2 • LD. REG.
89.000
89.000
89.000
89.000
89.000
RESEARCH OCTANE - UNL. REG.
93.892
95.421
94.051
92.779
92.956
MOTOR OCTANE • UNL. REG.
82.000
82.000
82.000
82.000
82.000
(R+M)/2 - UNL. REG.
87.946
88.711
88.026
87.389
B7.478
RESEARCH OCTANE - UNL. PRE.
98.935
98.500
99.330
98.500
98.500
MOTOR OCTANE - UNL. PRE.
87.500
87.500
87.500
87.500
87.500
-------
TABLE M-2
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS WITH 7.5% METHANOL-TBA
AND NON-ALCOHOL CASE AT 25 tgl60°F
(Sheet 5 of 5)
U/ 7.SX 2:1 METHANOL-TBA
FIXED NGL
uwc uirrcKciu.c» *
*
*
es============== 160335
160335
160330
160335
160325
8ASE
LOU
LOU
11.120
11.120
CASE REFERENCE: (1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(2)
S8SS5S5SSS
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
tl
II
II
II
II
II
II
u
SUING CRUDE, MBPCD
37.415
59.419
69.469
N-BUTANE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
ISO-BUTANE, MBPCO
0.000
0.000
0.000
NAT. GASOLINE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, MBPCD
37.414
59.418
69.458
LIQ. PET. GASES, LPG, MBPCD
29.392
6.673
20.883
SALABLE COKE, MTPCD
1.536
5.448
2.177
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL, MBPCD
22.515
23.958
21.482
LIQUID PLANT FUEL, MBPCD
0.000
0.000
0.000
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, MSPCD
128.956
98.730
58.791
ELECTRICAL POWER, M-KWH-PCD
1622.848
917.766
1429.816
CASH FLOW, MSPCD
•1697.457
-2735.743
-1886.218
INVENTMENT, HM$
996.413
1012.114
1345.460
CASE DIFFERENCES
NORMALIZED PER BARREL OF GASOLINE
SWING CRUDE, BBL./BBL.
0.013
0.021
0.024
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, BBL./BBL.
0.013
0.021
0.024
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, S/BBL.
0.045
0.035
0.021
ELECTRICAL POWER, KWH/BBL.
0.571
0.323
0.503
CASH FLOW, S/BBL.
•0.597
-0.962
•0.663
INVENTMENT, S/BBL.
0.350
0.356
0.473
SWR-8501A
Bonner 6 Moore Management Science
4-8
-------
SECTION 5
PADD 3 CASES FOR ESTIMATING NON-CONTROL-SEASON USE
OF RVP-CONTROL PROCESS ADDITIONS
Task 2 of Work Assignment 13* called for three cases
designed to measure the utility of process capacity added
for summer vapor pressure control during non-control (fall,
winter, and spring) seasons. One case involved restricting
maximum RVP to 9.12 psi (2-psi reduction) starting from a
1990 base configuration rather than a 1984 base configuration
as was originally done. A second case involved a calculated
non-control-season RVP maximum of 13-07 psi starting from the
1990 base configuration imposed on the previous case. The
1990 configuration was derived from the 1990 base case pre-
pared during the original study. Finally, a case starting
with the configuration derived from the first case above and
imposing a maximum RVP of 13.07 psi was required. That start-
ing configuration represents the additions (to the 1990 base
configuration) required to meet Low-RVP gasoline demands. All
three cases were Pun with NGL purchases fixed at forecast
availabilities.
5.1 NON-CONTROL-SEASON VALUE OF CONTROL-REQUIRED
INVESTMENT
In theory, the cost difference between the pair of
non-control-season cases is a measure of the added value of
facilities needed for vapor pressure control during non-
control seasons and not justified for non-control-season
operations. Table 5-1 summarizes the cost differences for
these cases.
~Contract no. 68-03-3192
SWR-8501A
Bonner E Moore Management Science
5-1
-------
TABLE 5-1
PADD 3 RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL SEASONS
CASE
1
2
3
Starting Capacity
Basis
1990-Base-RVP
1990-Base-RVP
1990-Low RVP
Maximum RVP, psi
9. 12
13.07
13.07
Cost Below Case 1,
$/ BBL
-
0.752
0.682
The value of low-RVP-required capacity in non-control
seasons is shown to be slightly less than that for the opti-
mal configuration for non-control seasons. This difference
of 0.07 $/BBL reflects the lower return on investment that
would accrue during non-control-season use of the facilities
needed for low-vapor pressure gasoline manufacture. If this
0.07 $/BBL difference for the non-control seasons were to be
recovered during the 92 days of the control period, the cost
for 2-psi reduction in PADD 3 must be increased by 0.208
$/BBL (0.07 x 273/92). This would change the cost measured
in the original study from 0.501 $/BBL to 0.712 $/BBL or an
increase of 41 percent. This factor is a reasonable approxi-
mation for adjusting regional and national costs derived from
the original. Costs shown in Tables 3-2 and 3-4, pages 3-^
and 3-8 of the original study report, when adjusted for lower
value of added facilities during non-control seasons, become
those shown in Table 5-2. No adjustment for California's
cost is shown because that state already imposes a summer
restriction and the control-season for California is about
equal in length to the non-control season.
SWR-8501A
Bonner £ Moore Management Science
5-2
-------
TABLE 5-2
REVISED REFINING COSTS FOR REDUCING MAXIMUM RVP
($ PER BARREL OF GASOLINE)
4 + 5
Total
(W/Fixed 1
2 3
(Ex. Calif.
) U.S.
NGL Purchases)
(except
2-psi Reduction
Calif.)
Cost, $/BBL 0.79
1.21 0.71
0.96
0.88
Annual Cost,
M$/YR 35,200
178,100 193,300
38,400
445,000
5.2 DETAILS FOR PADD 3 CASES FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON VALUE
OF CONTROL-REQUIRED FACILITIES
This subsection presents, Jn Table 5-3( selected
detail for each case specified, for Task 2. The first case
uses a starting- configuration derived from the 1990 case For
PADD 3 at base vapor pressure, i.e., 11.12 psi (see Table 4-6,
pages i| —27 through 4-30 of the original study report). The
second case also starts with the 1990 base-RVP configuration.
The third case starts with the low RVP configuration derived
from the first case.
-3192
Bonner C Moore Management Science
5-3
-------
TABLE 5-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON USE
OF CONTROL FACILITIES
(Sheet 1 of 5)
WINTER USE CASES
1990 INV
LOU
1990 INV
WINTER
BSSE===SSS BQBSSSSSSE
VINTER1NV
WINTER
HAX. RVP (ALL GRADES), PSI
PERCENT ALCOHOL
9.120
0.000
13.070
0.000
13.070
0.000
OPERATIONS DETAIL
UTILITY PURCHASES
CAT/CHEM, MIPCD
PWR GEN, N-ICWH-PCD
RAW MATERIAL PURCHASES, MBPCD
LOW-SULFUR CRUDE
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
SUING CRUDE
PROPANE
N-BUTANE
I SO-BUTANE
NAT.^GSOLINE
TOTAL
1007.515 973.197 973.071
31384.168 30519.934 30518.652
2578.000
2051.000
1390.111
119.100
68.040
38.030
150.970
2578.000
2051.000
1334.291
119.100
68.040
38.030
150.970
2578.000
2051.000
1334.141
119.100
68.040
38.030
150.970
6395.242 6339.422 6339.273
RAU MATERIAL INCREMENTAL VALUES, S/BBL.
LOW-SULFUR CRUDE
31.B50
31.510
31.520
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
30.080
29.990
29.990
SWING CRUDE
29.820
29.820
29.820
PROPANE
20.000
20.000
20.000
N-BUTANE
20.000
31.760
31.800
I SO-BUTANE
25.380
31.080
31.120
NAT. GSOLINE
30.040
28.230
28.230
SWR-8501A q ... .. ,0 5-1
Bonner £ Moore Management Science
-------
TABLE 5-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON USE
OF CONTROL FACILITIES
(Sheet
2 of
5)
WINTER USE CASES
<
1990 INV
1990 INV
UINTERINV
LOU
UINTER
WINTER
==========
B5S5SCSCCS
CSSEBCSSS5
SELECTED PROOUCT SALES, HBPCD
LEADED REGULAR
483.479
483.479
483.479
UNLEADED REGULAR
1648.600
1848.600
184B.600
UNLEADED PREMIUM
511.920
511.920
511.920
TOTAL GASOLINE
2843.999
2843.999
2843.999
LIQ. PET. CAS
285.868
287.454
287.414
SALABLE COKE (HTPCO)
142.003
138.579
138.565
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL
227.349
208.758
208.698
LIQUID PLANT FUEL
0.000
0.000
0.000
RELATIVE CASH FLOU, MSPCD
•49777.914
-47638.344
¦47837.953
RELATIVE INVESTMENT, MM$
6048.913
5653.910
5850.954
SWR-8501 A
Bonner B Mno'e Management Science
5-5
-------
TABLE 5-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON USE
OF CONTROL FACILITIES
(Sheet 3 of 5)
WINTER USE CASES
¦v
1990 JNV
1990 JNV
WWERJNV
LOW
WINTER
WINTER
BBSSSSSSS5
==========
BLEND DETAILS
RVP -
LD. REG.
9.120
13.070
13.070
RVP ¦
UNL. REG.
9.120
13.070
13.070
RVP •
UNL. PRE.
9.120
13.070
13.070
RVP -
POOL
9.120
13.070
13.070
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- LO. REG.
13.670
17.620
17.620
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- UNL. REG.
13.121
17.620
17.620
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- UNL. PRE.
11.441
17.620
17.620
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- POOL
12.912
17.620
17.620
X3160 DEGREES F.
- LD. REG.
35.000
35.000
35.000
X3160 DEGREES F.
• UNL. REG.
30.777
35.000
35.000
X3160 DEGREES F.
• UNL. PRE.
17.854
35.000
35.000
X3160 DEGREES F.
- POOL
29.168
35.000
35.000
X3210 DEGREES F.
- LD. REG.
56.539
57.000
57.000
*3210 DEGREES F.
- UNL. REG.
54.085
57.000
57.000
xa2)0 DE6REES F.
- UNL. PRE.
40,196
49.764
49.725
*3210 DEGREES F.
• POOL
52.003
55.698
55.691
*3230 DEGREES F.
- LD. REG.
62.777
62.952
62.954
33230 DEGREES F.
- UNL. REG.
61.392
62.214
62.214
93230 DEGREES F.
- UNL. PRE.
57.985
63.413
63.407
X3230 DEGREES F.
- POOL
61.015
62.556
62.555
5B330 DEGREES F.
- LD. REG.
92.040
91.992
91.994
JB330 DEGREES F.
• UNL. REG.
91.189
90.849
90.849
S2330 DEGREES F.
- UNL. PRE.
97.342
96.426
96.426
XS330 DEGREES F.
• POOL
92.441
92.047
92.047
SWR-8501A
Banner C Moore Management Science
5-6
-------
TABLE 5-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON USE
OF CONTROL FACILITIES
(Sheet 4 of 5)
WINTER USE CASES
1990 INV
1990 INV
W1NTERINV
LOU
UINTER
UINTER
II
II
II
11
II
II
II
U
II
II
II
II
U
U
II
II
II
II
eesssrssss
BLEND DETAILS (CONT.)
SPECIFIC GRAVITY - LD. REG.
0.743
0.740
0.740
SPECIFIC GRAVITY - UNL. REG.
0.745
0.742
0.742
SPECIFIC GRAVITY - UNL. PRE.
0.759
0.726
0.725
SPECIFIC GRAVITY ¦ POOL
0.747
0.738
0.738
X AROHATICS - LD. REG.
31.285
30.803
30.849
X AROHATICS - UNL. REG.
32.210
33.629
33.629
X AROHATICS - UNL. PRE.
35.121
19.816
19.582
X AROHATICS - POOL
32.576
30.662
30.628
RESEARCH OCTANE - LD. REG.
93.853
93.696
93.693
MOTOR OCTANE - LD. REG.
84.147
84.304
84.307
(R+M)/2 • LD. REG.
89.000
89.000
89.000
RESEARCH OCTANE - UNL. REG.
93.2B3
92.985
92.985
MOTOR OCTANE - UNL. REG.
82.000
82.000
82.000
<*+M)/2 - UNL. REG.
87.642
87.493
87.493
RESEARCH OCTANE • UNL. PRE.
98.500
98.500
98.500
MOTOR OCTANE - UNL. PRE.
87.500
87.500
87.500
(R+M)/2 - UNL. PRE.
93.000
93.000
93.000
SWR-8501A
Bonner & Moore Management Science
5-7
-------
TABLE 5-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR NON-CONTROL-SEASON USE
OF CONTROL FACILITIES
(Sheet 5 of 5)
WINTER USE CASES
CASE DIFFERENCES <
================
1990 INV
1990 INV
WINTERINV
LOW
WINTER
WINTER
CASE REFERENCE:
(1)
C2>
(3)
=
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
H
s essesscsst
II
It
U
II
II
II
II
II
U
SWING CRUDE, HBPCD
-55.820
-55.970
N-BUTANE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
ISO-BUTANE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
NAT. GASOLINE, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
TOTAL RAW HATERIALS, HBPCD
-55.820
-55.969
LIO. PET. GASES, IPG, HBPCD
1.586
1.546
SALABLE COKE, HTPCD
-3.424
¦3.438
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
-18.591
•18.651
LIQUID PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
0.000
0.000
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, MtPCD
•34.318
-34.444
ELECTRICAL POWER, H-KUH-PCO
-864.234
-865.516
CASH FLOW, HSPCD
2139.570
1939.961
INVENTMENT, HM$
-395.003
-197.959
CASE DIFFERENCES
NORMALIZED PER BARREL OF GASOLINE
SWING CRUDE, BBL./BBL.
-0.020
-0.020
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, BBL./BBL.
-0.020
•0.020
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, t/BBL.
-0.012
•0.012
ELECTRICAL POWER, KWH/BBL.
-0.304
•0.304
CASH FLOU, S/BBL.
0.752
0.682
INVENTMENT, S/BBL.
-0.139
•0.070
SWR-8501A
Bonner B Moore Management Science
5-8
-------
t
J
-------
SECTION 6
PADD 3 CASES FOR ASSESSING THE EFFECT
OF SPREADING CAPITAL COST
ONLY OVER CONTROL PERIOD
Task 3 of Work Assignment 13* called for three cases
designed to assess the impact of shortening the period over
which capital costs are spread. All three cases were spe-
cified to allow purchase or sale of normal butane at $20.26
per barrel; other NGL purchases were fixed at forecast avail-
abilities. The first case was specified to start with 1984
configuration and to meet a maximum RVP of 11.12 psi. With
the exception of normal butane handling, this is the same set
of conditions as specified of the PADD 3 1990 base case with
fixed NGL purchases. (See Table 4-6, pages 4-27 through 4-30
of the original study report.) The second case was specified
to start with the configuration derived from the first case,
to meet a maximum RVP of 9.12, and to apply capital costs for
365 days per year. The third case was specified the same as
the second case, except that capital costs were applied to 92
days per year.
Variations in the volumes of variable raw material
purchases show that lowering maximum vapor pressure requires
additional raw material (Case 2 versus Case 1). Case 3 ver-
sus Case 2 shows, as would be expected, that higher capital-
related costs shift the balance of costs to require more use
of raw material and less use of new capacity to achieve the
low-RVP restriction.
-3192
Bonner 8 Moore Management Science
6-1
-------
6.1 SUMMARY OF EFFECT OF SHORTENING
CAPITAL RECOVERY PERIOD
Results from these three cases show that vapor-
pressure-control cost (for 2-psi reduction) increases by nine
percent if the recovery period is limited to 92 days rather
than 365. Table 6-1 summarizes the results of raw material
purchase changes and cost changes.
TABLE 6-1
SUMMARY OF RECOVERY-PERIOD CASES
CASE
1
2
3
Maximum RVP, psi
11.12
9.12
9.12
Recovery Period for
New Capacity, Days
365
92
Swing Crude, MBPCD
1,275.500
1 ,386.851
1,389-177
Butane Purchase, M^PCD
164.191
76.433
80.256
TOTAL
1,439.691
1,463-284
1,469.433
Cost Above Base Case
-
0.756
0.824
The ratio of Case 3 added cost to that of Case 2 is
1.09 showing that capital-cost-recovery spread over 92 days
rather than 365 days increases the cost of vapor pressure
control by nine percent. This value is roughly one-fourth of
that derived from the cases presented in Section 5 of this
report. This indicates that use of vapor pressure control
facilities during non-control seasons is less attractive (under
the premises imposed on these two sets of cases) than planning
for use of control facilities only during control periods.
SWR-8501A
Bonner E Moore Management Science
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Direct comparison of the results from these cases
and those of the original study is hampered because of the
change in butane purchase conditions. The original study
results (see pages M-27 through H-30 of the original study
report) show a cost of 0.50^ $/BBL for a 2-psi reduction in
RVP. The lower cost of raw material for these supplemental
cases accounts for the difference in reported relative cash
flows, and explains the control-cost difference of of approx-
imately 0.25 $/BBL for the 2-psi reduction cases. With lower
cost and open supply for normal butane, these supplemental
cases show use of larger volumes of normal butane and smaller
volumes of swing crude.
6.2 EFFECT OF UNLIMITED BUTANE AVAILABILITY
ON USE OF ALKYLATION CAPACITY
Original study results with normal butane purchases
fixed at forecasted availability compared with results from
the three cases of Task 3 of Work Assignment 13 show only
indirect relationships. As shown in Table 6-2, limiting
butane purchases, as in the original study cases, resulted in
surplus alkylation capacity at normal RVP levels and slightly
expanded capacity at 2-psi reduction in RVP levels. For the
supplemental cases, butane purchases at the reduced RVP levels
were approximately half of the purchase amount for normal
RVP levels. Expansion of alkylation capacity (with 365-day
amortization) was less than that in the original study results
at 2-psi reduction and dropped to zero for the 92-day amor-
tization case. Except for the original study base case,
butane isoraerization was expanded to provide iso-butane for
alkylation. In the original study base case, no butane iso-
merization was employed and, thus, no expansion was required.
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g TABLE 6-2
30
io EFFECTS OF BUTANE PURCHASE ON ALKYLATION AND ISOMERIZATION
ui
O
o>
I
-t
BUTANE
PURCHASE
ALKYLATION CAPACITY,
MBPCD
ISOMERIZATION CAP. -
MBPCD
CASE LIMIT
MBPCD
INITIAL EXPANSION
USED
INITIAL
EXPANSION
USED
ORIGINAL STUDY
BASE CASE FIXED
a
O
CO
v£>
U10.6
292.4
37.7
-
-
2-PSI REDUCTION FIXED
68.014
1410.6 3-7
H 114. 3
37.7
142.9
80.6
TASK 3
- WORK ASSIGNMENT 13
BASE CASE OPEN
16H.19
U10.6
mo.6
37.7
50.8
88.5
2-PSI REDUCTION* OPEN
76.43
H10.6 1.8
1412.14
68.5
-
88.5
2-PSI REDUCTION** OPEN
80.26
U10.6
mo.6
88.5
-
87.7
•365-DAY AMORTIZATION PERIOD
"92-DAY AMORTIZATION PERIOD
-------
While these results show that the quantity of butane
purchases is not closely related to use of alkylation capacity
(initial or expanded), they do show that the lower availability
limit of the original study cases resulted in unused capacity
at base RVP levels. These results do show that large purchases
at base RVP's are drastically reduced at 2-psi reduction levels
(at constant purchase price of $20.26). Such swings in con-
sumption would obviously cause changes in the market price of
butane — a matter not reflected in the running of the cases
reported here.
6.3 DETAILS FOR PADD 3 CASES TO ASSESS SHORT-PERIOD
AMORTIZATION OF CONTROL-REQUIRED INVESTMENT
This subsection presents, in Table 6-3, selected
detail for each case specified in Task 3.
•Contract No. 68-03-3192
SWR-8501A
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6-5
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TABLE 6-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR ASSESSING
SHORT-PERIOD AMORTIZATION
(Sheet 1 of 5)
AMORTIZATION CASES
160335
1990 LOU
1990 LOU
11.120
365 DAYS
92 DAYS
==========
II
II
!!
II
It
(1
ll
t|
==========
MAX. RVP (ALL GRADES), PSI
11.120
9.120
9.120
PERCENT ALCOHOL
O.OOO
0.000
0.000
OPERATIONS DETAIL
UTILITY PURCHASES
CAT/CHEM, HSPCD
979.709
1000.842
993.122
PUR GEN, M-KVH-PCD
30193.652
31406.652
31740.211
RAW MATERIAL PURCHASES, MBPCD
LOU-SULFUR CRUDE
2578.003
2578.000
2578.000
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
2051.000
2051.000
2051.000
SUING CRUDE
1257.500
1386.851
1389.177
PROPANE
119.100
119.100
119.100
N-BUTANE
164.191
76.433
80.256
I SO-BUTANE
38.030
38.030
38.030
NAT. GSOLINE
150.970
150.970
150.970
TOTAL
6358.777
6400.371
6406.523
RAW MATERIAL INCREMENTAL VALUES, t/BBL.
LOU-SULFUR CRUDE
31.630
31.660
32.130
HIGH-SULFUR CRUDE
30.050
30.080
30.150
SUING CRUDE
29.820
29.820
29.820
PROPANE
20.000
20.000
20.000
N-BUTANE
20.260
20.260
20.260
I SO-BUTANE
25.770
23.170
21.920
NAT. GSOLINE
28.750
30.670
31.870
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Banner C Mnoie Management Science
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TABLE 6-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR ASSESSING
SHORT-PERIOD AMORTIZATION
(Sheet 2 of 5)
AMORTIZATION CASES
<
160335
1990 LOU
1990 LOW
11.120
365 DAYS
92 DAYS
SELECTED PRODUCT SALES, HBPCD
LEADED REGULAR
483.479
483.479
483.479
UNLEADED REGULAR
1848.600
1848.600
1848.600
UNLEADED PREMIUM
511.920
511.920
511.920
TOTAL GASOLINE
2843.999
2843.999
2843.999
LIQ. PET. GAS
274.466
284.012
284.733
SALABLE COKE (MTPCD)
132.142
142.209
140.797
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL
211.070
229.047
229.804
LIQUID PLANT FUEL
0.000
0.000
0.000
RELATIVE CASH FLOW, HtPCD
-47596.477
-49746.609
-49940.912
RELATIVE INVESTMENT, MMS
5650.810
5903.491
5836.248
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Bonner E Moore Management Science
6-7
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TABLE 6-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR ASSESSING
SHORT-PERIOD AMORTIZATION
(Sheet 3 of 5)
AMORTIZATION CASES
'
160335
1990 LOU
1990 LOU
11.120
365 DAYS
92 DAYS
II
11
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
u
II
II
II
It
II
II
II
11
tt
II
II
1)
II
II
II
II
11
II
II
II
BLEND DETAILS
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
II
u
II
II
II
u
RVP •
LD. REG.
11.120
9.120
9.120
RVP -
UNL. REG.
11.120
9.120
9.120
RVP •
UNL. PRE.
11.120
9.120
9.120
RVP ¦
POOL
11.120
9.120
9.120
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
• LO. REG.
15.670
13.670
13.670
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- UNL. REG.
15.669
12.996
12.885
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- UNL. PRE.
14.601
11.441
11.411
VAPOR-LOCK INDEX
- POOL
15.477
12.831
12.753
X3160 DEGREES
F.
- LD. REG.
35.000
35.000
35.000
X3160 DEGREES
F.
- UNL. REG.
34.992
29.815
28.962
X3160 DEGREES
F.
- UNL. PRE.
26.775
17.854
17.620
X3160 DEGREES
F.
- POOL
33.514
28.543
27.947
Xo)210 DEGREES
F.
- LD. REG.
57.000
56.539
56.539
*3210 DEGREES
F.
• UNL. REG.
57.000
53.373
52.334
5B210 DEGREES
F.
- UNL. PRE.
47.309
40.196
41.099
5B210 DEGREls
F.
• POOL
55.256
51.540
51.027
X3230 DEGREES
F.
- LD. REG.
62.966
62.777
62.777
>»230 DEGREES
F.
• UNL. REG.
63.584
60.834
59.624
X3230 DEGREES
F.
- UNL. PRE.
63.797
57.985
60.105
JB230 DEGREES
F.
- POOL
63.517
60.652
60.247
XS330 DEGREES
F.
- LD. REG.
91.947
92.040
92.040
X3330 DEGREES
F.
- UNL. REG.
91.383
91.156
91.106
30330 DEGREES
F.
- UNL. PRE.
97.775
97.342
97.606
%3330 DEGREES
F.
- POOL
92.629
92.420
92.434
SWR-8501 A
Bonner C Moore Management Science
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TABLE 6-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR ASSESSING
SHORT-PERIOD AMORTIZATION
(Sheet 4 of 5)
AMORTIZATION CASES
% -
160335
1990 LOU
1990 LOW
11.120
36S DAYS
92 DAYS
ESSSECCC55
SSSSSCEBSS
==========
BLEND DETAILS (CONT.)
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
¦ LD. REG.
0.742
0.743
0.743
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- UNL. REG.
0.738
0.747
0.751
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- UNL. PRE.
0.739
0.759
0.749
SPECIFIC GRAVITY
- POOL
0.739
0.748
0.749
X AROHATICS
- LD. REG.
31.169
31.285
31.285
X AROHATICS
- UNL. REG.
30.194
32.824
35.151
X AROHATICS
- UNL. PRE.
26.993
35.121
28.374
X AROHATICS
- POOL
29.784
32.976
33.274
RESEARCH OCTANE
LD. REG.
93.513
93.853
93.853
HOTOR OCTANE
LD. REG.
84.487
84.147
84.147
(R+M)/2
LD. REG.
89.000
89.000
89.000
RESEARCH OCTANE
UNL. REG.
92.525
93.324
93.625
HOTOR OCTANE
UNL. REG.
82.000
82.000
82.000
(Pf+H)/2
UNL. REG.
87.262
87.662
87.813
RESEARCH OCTANE
UNL. PRE.
97.875
98.500
98.125
MOTOR OCTANE
UNL. PRE.
88.125
87.500
87.875
(R+HJ/2
UNL. PRE.
93.000
93.000
93.000
SWR-8501 A
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6-9
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TABLE 6-3
PADD 3 CASE RESULTS FOR ASSESSING
SHORT-PERIOD AMORTIZATION
(Sheet 5 of 5)
CASE DIFFERENCES
ssBseesssssBBB::
CASE REFERENCE:
AMORTIZATION CASES
160335 1990 LOU 1990 LOW
11.120 365 DAYS 92 DAYS
(1) (2) (3)
SWING CRUDE, MBPCD
N-BUTANE, KBPCD
I SO-BUTANE, HBPCD
NAT. GASOLINE, HBPCD
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, MBPCD
LIC. PET. GASES, LPG, HBPCD
SALABLE COKE, MTPCD
GASEOUS PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
LIQUID PLANT FUEL, HBPCD
129.351
•87.758
0.000
0.000
41.594
9.546
10.067
17.977
0.000
131.677
•83.935
0.000
0.000
47.746
10.267
8.655
18.734
0.C03
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, MIPCC
ELECTRICAL POWER, M-KUH-PCD
CASH FLOW, HiPCD
IMVENTMENT, HM£
CASE DIFFERENCES
NORMALIZED PER BARREL OF GASOLINE
21.133
1213.000
-2150.132
252.681
13.413
1546.559
-2344.435
185.438
SUING CRUDE, BBL./BBL.
TOTAL RAW MATERIALS, BBL./B8L.
CATALYST AND CHEMICALS, I/BBL.
ELECTRICAL POWER, KWH/BBL.
CASH FLOW, S/BBL.
INVENTHENT, S/BBL.
0.045
0.015
0.007
0.427
-0.756
0.089
0.046
0.017
0.005
0.544
-O.B24
0.065
SWR-8501A
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