DELAWARE ESTUARY COMPREHENSIVE STUDY
PROGRAM REVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENT
1. Organization Chart - Fiscal Year 1963
2. Functional Statements for Major Units
3. Personnel Roster as of January 1, 1963
1*. Budget - Fiscal Year 1963
a. Estimate by Quarters
b. By Internal and External Expenditures
c. By Activities
d. By Uniform Classification According to Objects
Consultants & Technical Committees
a. Regulatory Agencies
b. Interested Groups & Agencies
c. Cooperating Agencies
d. Consultants to the Project
6. Space & Facilities
a. Present Office Floor Plan
b. Proposed Office Floor Plan (after January 1, 1963)
7. Activities - Fiscal Year 1963
A. Field Studies
i. Map - Location of River Sampling Stations
B. Data Processing
i. Card Format
C. Water Quality Forecasting
a. Discussion of Water Quality Forecasting Model
D. Estuarine Water Quality Management
a. Some Results on the Optimal Allocation of
Funds for Water Quality Improvement
8. Inventories
A. Water Uses
B. Industrial Waste Survey
i. Inventory Form
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9. Economic Studies
10. Title III & Flow Regulation
11. Hydrology
12. Oceanography
13. Accomplishments
lit. Personnel Needs - Fiscal Year 1963
Analysis of Vacancies
a. Authorized
b. Unauthorized
15. Plans & Schedule - Fiscal Year 1961+
A. Field Studies
B. Special Studies
C. Water Quality Forecasting and Management
D. Contracts
16. Description of Investigations - Fiscal Year 1961+
i. Bar Graph
17. Organization Chart - Fiscal Year 1961+
18. Personnel Roster for Fiscal Year 1961+
19. Personnel Needs
20. Major Items of Equipment Required for Fiscal Year 1961+
21. Budget - Fiscal Year 1961+
a. Estimate by Quarters
b. By Internal and External Expenditures
c. By Activities
d. By Uniform Classification According to Objects
22. Long Range Objectives and Funds Required
a. Bar Graph
b. Table of Funds Required
23. Preliminary Budget Estimate for Fiscal Year 1965
a. Estimate by Quarters
b. By Internal and External Expenditures
c. By Activities
d. By Uniform Classification According to Objects
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ORQABIZATIOH CHART FOR DELAWARE ESTUART STODT
F.l. 1363 :
Project Director - E. L. HacLeaan (jjjj
Asst. Project Director"- ft. V. Themaxm (8.A.)
Stenographers
(OS-li) P. Piree
(OS-It) R. Snoller
1
sEcna i
Short Ten Forecasting
and Kanagenent
sectich n
Long Terra forecasting
and Hanage&nt
FIELD STUUJUg
Estnary Sampling
(Asst.-1/2) D. Stoltenberg
Engineer (J. A.-1/2) V. Blackard
Engineer (J. A.-1/2) D. Wright
Qaglneer (Asst.-l/It) A. Bronberg
Biologist (OS-ll-l/l) A. Morris
Engineer (Assjt.) Vacant
Laboratory
Bacteriologist (03-9) 7. Breilnsld.
Biologist (0S-U-3/li) A. Korris
Chenlst. (GS-7) B. DePrater
FROCESSDP OP DATA
Engineer (J. A.-1/2) D. Wright
Engineer (J. A.-l/S) W. Blackard
DATA AHA LIS IS
AMD INTERPRETATlOH
Engineer (S. A.-1/2) M. Sobel
Engineer (Asst.-1/2)' D. Stoltenberg
Economist roS-U-1/2) Vacant
Engineer (Asst.) Vacant
CONTRACTS
fenjjlneer (Asst.-3/L) A. Bronberg
SPECIAL STODIES
Engineer (S..A.-1/2) H. Sobel
Economist (OS-11-1/?) Vacant
1. Organization Chart - 6?
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2. FUNCTIONAL STATEMENTS FOR MAJOR UNITS OF DELAWARE ESTUARY
FOR FY 1963
(See Organization Chart)
Unit 1 - Field Studies
1. Under the field studies unit, weekly sampling runs covering
fourteen (lit) stations in the estuary are conducted in order
to fill in gaps in data presently being collected by other
agencies. These gaps include routine evaluation of stream
B.O.D.j plankton and bottom samples and the determination
of nutrients.
2. Laboratory work to support the field operations is being
carried out at the laboratory of the Raritan Bay Study,
Metuchen, N. J.
Unit 2 - Processing of Data
This unit is intended to provide a smooth working operation
so that continuously recorded data entering the project office
can be transmitted most readily to computers for analysis.
Unit 3 - Contracts
This separate unit was established so that an engineer can
maintain control over the progress and technical details of con-
tracts which are anticipated. Initial liaison and further
follow-up is accomplished by this engineer.
Unit It - Data Analysis and Interpretation
This unit is involved with the evaluation and interpretation
of computer results to gain further knowledge in the variations
of water quality in the estuary. It also includes further de-
velopment of economic, forecasting and management models for
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determining the best solution to a given water quality
objective.
Unit 5 - Special Studies - Long Tern Forecasting and
Management
This unit during the latter half of FY 63 will
investigate the economics of capital changes in plant
facilities and costs of expected nex^r facilities, and
will also make estimates of future economic changes
on an area-by-area basis with concurrent estimates of
effects of the change in quality.
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3. DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
ROSTER - FISCAL YEAR 1963
For Commissioned Corps includes:
1. Rental
2. Subsistence
3. FICA
For Civil Service includes:
1. Retirement
2. FEGLI
3. H. B.
BSS
Grade
Title & Name
Job No.
Total#
Staff (Jan. 1, 1963)
1 San. Eng. Dir.
Project Director
E. L. MacLeman
-
$13,110
2 Sr. Asst. San. Engr.
Asst. Proj. Director
R. V. Thomann
-
7,673
3 Asst. San. Engr.
Evaluation Engineer
M. Sobel
-
5,2Ul
U Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
6,6h2
A. Bromberg
-
5 Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
5,2Ul
D. Stoltenberg
-
6 Jr. Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
W. Blackard
-
U,36l
7 Jr. Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
D. Wright
-
U,36l
8 G. S. 9
Bacteriologist
F. Brezenski
BSS-OTi
7,165
9 G.S.I).
Stenographer
P. Piree
RO-II-282
U,U12
Staff (Vacancies - with E,
.O.D.)
10 Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
E.O.D. 6/15/63
(None)
-
U, 361
11 Asst. San. Engr.
Asst. Evaluation Engr.
E.O.D. 2/1/63
(None)
-
ii, 361
12 G. S. 11a
Biologist
E.O.D. 2/3/63
A. Morris
-
5,676
13 G. S. 7g
Chemist
E.O.D. 1/7/63
B. DePrater
5501
7,187-
111 G. S. lid
Economist
E.O.D. 2/1/63
(None)
-
9,525
15 G. S. U
Stenographer
E.O.D. 2/U/63
R. Smoller
RO-II-282
5,205
16 COSTEP
Engineer
-
885
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
h. BUDGET ESTIMATE FOR FISCAL YEAR 1963
A. Estimate by Quarters
Etem
No.
Description
1
Quarters
2 3
k
Total
1
Rent
1,250
1,250
2,250
2,250
7,000
2
Personnel Compensation
)12,120
)
)
15,860
21,985
21,990
(71,955
(
(
3
Personnel Benefits
h
Travel
1,625
1,625
1,625
1,625
6,500
5
Vehicles (2 GSA cars)
5oo
5oo
5oo
500
2,000
6
Communications
375
375
375
375
1,500
7
Contracts
-
-
2,500
6,000
8,5oo
8
Data Processing &
Computer Time (P.O.)
980
2,14iO
U,380
h,880
12,680
9
Office Equipment (P.O.)
5oo
5oo
500
500
2,000
10
Office Supplies (P.O.)
) 3U1
)
)
3Ul
3U1
3h2
( 1,365
(
(
11
Office Supplies (R.O.)
12
Laboratory Equipment (P.O.)
i,5oo
2,500
2,000
2,000
8,000
13
Laboratory Supplies (P.O.)
) i,5oo
)
))
1,000
i,5oo
2,000
( 6,000
(
(
Hi
Laboratory Supplies (Rar. Lab.
15
Launch Service (P.O.)
i,5oo
1,500
i,5oo
1,500
6,000
16
Miscellaneous
375
375
375
375
1,500
Total
22,566
28,266
39,831
hh,337
135,000
fv
I
-P
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BUDGET - FISCAL YEAR 1963 contd.
B. By Internal and External Expenditures
Internal
External
Contracts for investigations
or services
Total
C. By Activities
Project headquarters
and administration
Office rent
Estuary field studies,
sampling, dye
Inventories (in FY 1963 - being
handled entirely by States)
Data Processing
(including card punching')
Data Analysis
Laboratory
Special Studies
Contracts
First Half Estimated for Second
FY 1963 Half FY 1963
52,00o 7U,ooo
9,000
52,000 83,000
20,000 22,000
2,500 U,5oo
8,000 13,500
6,000 11,500
3,500 6,000
10,000 13,000
2,000 3,500
9,000
Total
52,000
83,000
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- FISCAL YEAR 1963 contd.
By uniform classification according to
Personal Services and Benefits
Personnel compensation
Personnel benefits
Contractual Services and Supplies
Travel and transportation of persons
Rent, communications and utilities
Other services
Supplies and materials
Acquisition of Capital Assets
Equipment
objects
First Half Estimated for Second
FY 1963 Half FY 1963
21,000 33,000
7,000 11,000
5,000 5,000
3,00c 5,000
7,000 20,000
14,000 h,0G0
5,000 5,000
Total
52,000
83,000
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
5. CONSULTANTS & TECHNICAL COMMITTEES:
a. Regulatory Agencies:
Policy Committee:
Delaware Water Pollution Control Commission
Donald K. Harmeson, Executive Officer
Alt. - Dr. A. Joel Kaplovsky
New Jersey State Department of Health
Alfred H. Fletcher, Dir., Div. of Environmental Health
Alt. - Ernest R. Segesser
Pennsylvania Department of Health
Karl M. Mason, Dir., Bureau of Environmental Health
Alt. - Walter A. Lyon
Delaware River Basin Commission
James F. Wright, Executive Director
Alt. - D. A. Robertson, Jr., Head, Water Quality Section
New or revised major policy procedures are undertaken with the approval
and support of this committee.
b. Interested groups other than regulatory agencies:
U. S. Geological Survey, Dept. of Interior
Leo T. McCarthy, Jr., Water Quality Branch
U. S. Army, Corps of Engineers
V. V. Lisovitch, Chief, Project Development Section
U. S. Soil Conservation Service, Dept. of Agriculture
John Hull, Soil Conservationist
Bureau of Sport Fisheries & Wildlife, Dept. of Interior
Dale Sutherland
George Spinner
Philadelphia Water Department
J. V. Radziul, Chief, Research & Development Unit
Interstate Commission on the Delaware River Basin
John Boardman, Engineer
(As of January 1, 1963 the functions of
INCODEL will be taken over by DRBC.)
These agencies are invited to attend meetings when the status of the
project is presented and discussed.
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c. Cooperating Agencies:
Committee of Cooperating Agencies:
Delaware Water Pollution Commission
Dr. A. Joel Kaplovsky, Director
J. Steven Anderson, Asst. Engr.
New Jersey State Department of Health
Ernest R. Segesser, Supervising Public Health Engineer
Paul E. Wyszkowski, Sr. Public Health Engineer
Pennsylvania Department of Health
Walter A. Lyon, Dir., Bureau of Environmental Health
George A. Elias, Regional Sanitary Engineer
Delaware River Basin Commission
W. B. Whitall, Acting Secretary
D. A. Robertson, Jr., Head, Water Quality Section
The participation of the cooperating agencies in the work of the DECS
includes the attendance at meeting, when the status of the project is pre-
sented and discussed, actual physical participation in sampling runs, lab-
oratory work, dye studies, and collection of data. This committee also
provides technical assistance and reviews the concepts and mathematics in-
volved in the model.
It should also be noted that the members of this committee include at
various times among their representatives, technical personnel from out-
side their own offices. Examples of this are Pennsylvania's inclusion of
personnel from the Philadelphia Water Department and Delaware's plan to
include industrial personnel.
d. Consultants:
Dr. Donald J. O'Connor, Professor of Sanitary Engineering,
Manhattan College, New York, N. Y.
Dr. O'Connor provides consultation on the evaluation of the results of
previous dye studies made in a model of the Delaware Estuary. This evalu-
ation consists primarily of the determination of eddy diffusion coefficients
(a measure of the turbulence of the stream). Also, computations are carried
out which indicate how these coefficients vary with incoming fresh water flow.
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
6. SPACE & FACILITIES
Office
Delaware Estuary Study
321 Chestnut Street
Philadelphia 6, Pa.
Leasing Agent
General Services Administration through Abner Levy,
Real Estate Agent, 1528 Walnut St., Philadelphia, Pa.
Lessor
Pennsylvania Threshermen's and Farmers 1 Mutual
Casualty Insurance Company
Occupancy
Office occupied starting April 15, 1962
Amount of Space
1300 sq. ft. for general office purposes,
200 sq. ft. for laboratory; total 1500 sq. ft.
Lease Cost
General Services Administration has been given
$^000 of the DECS budget and handles payments.
Space is rented at the rate of $3 per sq. ft.
or $U500 per year.
Additional Space
A request has been made for an additional
1200 sq. ft. (See attached plans.) Present
laboratory work includes all biological and.
some chemical analysis.
Equipment
1 - Coleman Spectophotometer
2 - Microscopes
3 - Dissolved Oxygen Meter
ii - Gurley Current Meter
Launch Service
Boats are rented from the Hueber Launch Service for
River Sampling Runs on Wednesdays and special studies
which require the use of additional boats. Rate:
$5 per hour. Purchase order expires December 31,
1962. A request has been made for a new purchase
order covering the period from January 1 to
December 31, 1963 for a maximum of 500 hours. The
rate has increased from $5 to $7.50 per hour. Ser-
vice permits leaving equipment on board between runs
or storing in heated shed. In case of breakdowns,
additional boats are made available.
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U.S. PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
> DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
321 CHESTNUT STREET
PHILA, PA.
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-------
U.S. PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
321 CHESTNUT STREET
PHILA., PA.
OFFICE FLOOR PLAN
1962
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DHI • RADIATOR
[XI > AIR CONDITION UNIT
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
7. ACTIVITIES - FY 1963
A. Field Studies
The objective of the field measurements is to fill in certain gaps
(primarily stream BOD and biological work) which exists in data col-
lected by other agencies. These field data are necessary for the
mathematical forecasting model and will assist in determining more
accurately the possible points in the environment where water quality
control can be exercised.
A sampling run is made each Wednesday using a 35 ft. launch out
of Marcus Hook, Pa. Thirteen stations are occupied with a collec-
tion made at the top and bottom of each station. Figure 1 indicates
the location of the boat station (#3-#lit). Two engineers from the
DES collect the samples, using a Kemmerer water sampler. In addition,
two engineers from the Pennsylvania State Health Department board the
vessel at station #6 and assist in the planting of the bacteriolog-
ical samples. Station #2 (located at the Delaware Memorial Bridge)
is sampled by one engineer from the pier'. A top and bottom sample is
collected. No special equipment is used. Chemical determinations
are made on the boat using standard laboratory apparatus.
The measurements made on the samples include:
Dissolved oxygen
Water temperature
BOD
Coliform and fecal strep (#6 - #lli)
Conductivity
pH
Hardness (#7 - #lM
Phosphates & Nitrates (once every 2 weeks)
1
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U. S. PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
SAMPLING STATIONS ON THE
DELAWARE RIVER
TRENTON
STA. 14
*STA. 13
STA. 12
STA. II
STA.10
PHILADELPHIA
STA. 8
-STA. 7
PENNSYLVANIA
DELAWARE
WILMINGTON
STA. 5
STA. 6
STA. 4
N
STA. 3
NEW JERSEY
STA. 2
® ~ CONTINUOUS RECORDERS IN USE
Seal e: 1. n . = 10 mi .
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
i) Plankton (once every 2 weeks)
j) Bottom samples (once every k weeks)
The data are tabulated by stations from the field sheets pre-
paratory to punching for machine processing. The card format is
the same as shown in the attachment to the activity listed as 2.
Data Processing.
Dye studies to determine the diffusion characteristics of the
estuary are also carried out under this activity. Three or four
boats with necessary equipment are used and the cooperation of
State agencies is also enlisted.
No specific report on this activity is contemplated other than
a print-out of the data which will be made available to all inter-
ested parties. The results of successful dye studies when accom-
plished may be prepared in a report form depending on the amount
of meaningful information that is obtained.
2
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
B. Data Processing
The objective of this activity is to provide a smooth working
operation so that the results from continuous recording stations can
be transmitted most readily to the computers for analysis. At
present there are five continuously recording stations in the estuary
(see Figure 1). These are operated jointly by the City of Philadelphia
and the USGS. Presently, the data are manually digitized by the USGS
and the results sent to the Philadelphia Water Department. A copy is
then made and transmitted to DES. A careful log is kept of all data
and the status of the data.
A Junior Assistant Sanitary Engineer spends approximately haLf-
tirae on this activity. Environmental data (sunlight intensity) is
digitized manually by the officer. The punched card facilities at
Raritan Arsenal are being used to affect the transformation of the
data.
The card format and necessary coding has been completed. A
sketch of the format is attached herewith.
3
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CARD FORMAT
FOR
DELAWARE ESTUARY COMPREHENSIVE STUDY
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C. Water Quality Forecasting
•\
This activity is designed to implement on a broader scale the
results of research on a water quality forecasting model conducted
by R. V. Thomann while at New York University. The reasons for the
development of this model are as follows:
a) A more basic understanding of the environmental mechanisms -
which contribute to the variation of water quality is
obtained
b) Complete understanding of the physical mechanisms implies
the ability to forecast phenomena
c) Understanding coupled with valid forecasts affords the user
the opportunity to assess the effects of control measures on
the forecasted phenomena
These reasons assume particular importance when water quality is
considered. The basic problem in a comprehensive program is to
determine the effects of various control schemes (changes in
treatment plant effluents, fresh water inflow, etc.) on the
quality of the stream. There may be many alternatives which
will result in a desirable level of quality. Each alternative
has an associated cost. The problem of determining the "best"
alternative is considered under Activity k. - Estuarine Water
Quality Management.
A short description of the forecasting model is attached
herewith.
Progress prior to FY 1963 on the quality model was accom-
plished through an out-of-service training assignment at New York
University. The general model as devised then was applied to a
short stretch of the Delaware River in order to theoretically
verify a DO time series record obtained at Pier #11 in Philadelphia.
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
During the first half of FY 1963, the model was expanded to
include the entire estuary from Trenton, N. J. to Delaware Bay.
Some of the initial computations needed for the model (volumes,
flow, etc.) have been completed. Also, the programs for the pre-
liminary phases of the model development have been written, debugged
and tested by Mr. E. Mehr at New York University. Work has also
been started and is to some degree successful on a flow-dependent
model. This approach which is an extension of the first fore-
casting scheme, results in a model which is capable of analytically
expressing the effects of incoming fresh water.
For the remainder of FY 1963, additional programs must be
written and analysis of time series records using existing programs
will be begun. By the end of FY 1963, all of the basic programs are
expected to be complete and some trial forecasts can be made. How-
ever, a complete working model with all control mechanisms included
is not expected to be accomplished until approximately January 1961i.
The Technical Director spends approximately one-half his time
on this activity and draws on the assistance of two Junior Assistant
Engineers on a part-time basis. The computer at New York University
I60I1 Computing Center is being used to effectuate the development of
the model.
Interim reports on the nature of the model and its application
are anticipated. These reports would be for the specific use of the
agencies involved in the study and other interested groups. They
will be of a semi-technical type; more technical reports will probably
be disseminated through the outlet of professional journals. One of
these interim reports is being prepared and should be finished during
FY 1963.
5
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DISCUSSION OF WATER QUALITY
FORECASTING MODEL
Introduction
The forecasting model makes use of the techniques of systems analysis
which are used extensively in the field of communications engineering.
A system is defined in its most general sense as any mechanism which acts
on an input to produce an output. A television set, for example, is a
system which receives spacial electromagnetic waves and through a complex
arrangement of resistors, capacitors, tubes, etc., converts this input
signal to an output, namely the television picture. In a like manner,
a body of water is viewed as a system which receives input signals,
namely temperature, treatment plant effluent, and plankton variations and
somehow acts on these inputs to produce an output, e. g. dissolved oxygen.
In water quality, we are usually presented with the output and with some
measures of the inputs. The problem then consists of using the inputs,
together with knowledge of the physical actions of the stream (the
system) and thereby generate an output. This output can then be compared
with the observed variations and the forecast can be verified.
A typical DO output is shown in the attached figure. The purpose of
a theoretical water quality model is to explain on the basis of presently
known physical facts and theory, the reasons why the observed time series
varied in the particular manner which is shown in the figure. What
mechanisms contributed to the transient decrease and increase in DO during
February 1961? What forces interacted to result in the sharp drop in DO
during late spring and subsequent steep recovery during late fall? Indeed,
what combination of events forced the DO to remain at a zero level for
five months of the year? All of these questions should be answered from
a theoretical viewpoint. This leads then to a more basic understanding
of the relative role which each of the components of the environment plays
in producing the final observed DO signal.
6
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AVERAGE DAILY DISSOLVED OXYGEN (mg./l.)
FOR DELAWARE ESTUARY
AT PIER #11 NORTH, PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA
DEC. I960 - NOV. 1961
, Average Daily Dissolved Oxygen (mg./l.)
j
*
1 . . 1 ¦ i v- . ^ \
December February April June August October November
I960 1961 196I
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Basic Theory
The theoretical development views any estuary (indeed any body of water)
as a group of systems which are coupled to each other through the mechan-
ism of diffusion and flow transport (advection). In each system there are
a number of inputs which act in that system directly and effect other
systems only through the diffusion-advection phenomena. These inputs are
termed "forcing functions" since they "force" the system to respond. A
material balance is then written for each system resulting in n equations
(for n systems). A typical equation for the system is given by
r Q.<~eK,) ~t~ [ CK' ~ C-*
dt K' ¦+ r - -/ / +• P
where ck = DO cone, in system k .
ck> = DO conc. in all systems k' bordering on k
^kk' = ne^ from k to system k'
E^jj' = exchange parameter (diffusion) between k and k
rk = reaeration coefficient in system k
cgk = DO saturation in k (a function of time)
d^ = decay coefficient in k
» BOD in k
P^ = photosnythetic production in k
and the summation extends over all systems k' which border on system k.
If now all of the equations from k = 1 to k = n are written down and
simplified, differential equations result which have on the right side all
of the forcing functions (r^., and P^) on the left side all of
the DO concentrations Cj((k =1, 2 ...n). The problem becomes somewhat com-
plex at this stage but final significant results can be stated.
Upon completion of the mathematical development., relationships are
obtained which express the effects the body of water exerts on the inputs
to produce the output. This effect is embodied in what is called a transfer
function (0) and is dependent only on the hydrodynamic properties of the
8
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b.Ody of water. The result can be symbolized as shown in the sketch below.
Input forcing functions —.
Hence a knowledge of the transfer function, 0, together with a knowledge of
the inputs allows one to theoretically compute the output.
However, further investigation of the inputs must be made since these
are really outputs of other systems and assume the role of inputs in the
DO system. If the saturation input is taken first, one may consider this
input to be primarily a function of temperature. (In coastal waters, the
saturation is also a function of the chloride content. This however does
not produce any conceptual difficulty.) Schematically then, the satura-
tion concentration as a function of time can be visualized as shown below
The stream EOD is obviously an output from a system which has as its inputs,
effluent BOD from treatment plants, and water temperature (which affects the
decay coefficient.) This can also be computed on a theoretical basis.
Photosynthetic production is assumed to be an output which has as its
inputs, water temperature and sunlight intensity. This particular aspect
of the model is being broadended to include nutrients and pH.
The entire system can then be represented in symbolic form as shown
in the attached figure. Although these relationships are highy symbolized
in the sketch, a completely analytical treatment has been shown to be
possible.
The representation indicates that for any time variation of the basic
inputs, the resultant time variation of DO in any section of the body of
water can be computed.
9
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D. 0.
SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION
OF
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
FOR
FORECASTING OF DISSOLVED OXYGEN
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
The final step in the analysis consists of determining the principal
features of the basic inputs. These features can be grouped according to
a) periodically recurring phenomena, b) transient phenomena, and c) randomly
occurring phenomena. All of these different time inputs can be treated
mathematically and the resultant periodic, transient or random DO output
can be computed.
Practically, this affords an opportunity to mathematically assess, for
example, the sharp transient increase in storm water overflows on the
stream BOD. Further, periodic influences such as the annual march of temper-
ature and sunlight can be used to predict the periodic variation of DO due
to these factors. These individual variations of DO can then be summed due
to the mathematical nature of the problem and the final variation obtained.
A knowledge of the effect of the individual inputs on the outputs has been
obtained and therefore allows one to separate out these effects.
Present Limitations of Model
It can be noted that chemical oxygen demand has not as yet been included
in the model. The model also assumes that within any section, the DO is
completely uniform, i.e., no gradients of DO are allowed to occur within
the section. Finally, the present model is for fixed fresh water inflow,
diffusion and reaeration characteristics. This can be overcome in a
crude manner by running the model for separate flow regimes. A more analy-
tical approach is now being developed which results in a model which is not
limited to fixed flow.
-------
D. Estuarine Water Quality Management
The objective of this research is to develop procedures by
which rational choices may be made among the technological alter-
natives which affect the estuary's water quality. By drawing on
techniques which exist in fields like operations research, economics
and mathematical statistics, analyses will be made of: the optimal
allocation of treatment plant investments along the estuary, marginal
analysis of costs and benefits over a range of quality (for each of
several attributes), the control of storm water overflows and the
control of the variability of treatment plant operations.
An immediately recognizable problem is how to allocate funds
among various facilities so that a target increase in quality will
be attained at minimum cost. For the Delaware Estuary this problem
has been solved in its abstract form with the aid of several assump-
tions . It remains to completely verify the assumptions and collect
data on the costs of alternative treatment plant operating capacicites.
A brief example of this problem has been attached and a longer paper
is being prepared for delivery at the May 1963 National Meeting of
the Operations Research Society of America.
Repeated solution of the preceding problem for a sequence of
target qualities will generate a marginal cost curve as a function of
the estuary's quality. This will be done first for dissolved oxygen
concentrations. It is hoped that marginal benefit curves may be con-
structed of the same qualitative attributes for which marginal cost
curves are obtained. In this effort, utility theory will probably be
used so that non-economic social benefits and costs may be imputed.
Storm water overflows and variations in treatment plant operations
contribute to fluctuations in the quality of the estuary's water. It is
hoped that by relating the engineering design alternatives in each case to
the benefits of improved quality, some procedures may be derived with which
12
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
optimal decisions may be made.
It is not expected that, by the end of FY 1963, any of the
preceding problems will have been solved and their solutions be
ready for implementation on the estuary. The study of all problems,
however, will have been initiated and data will have been gathered
for the investment problem and marginal costs and benefits. This
presumes that one man will be assigned to this phase full-time.
Data processing will be done on a desk calculator except,
possibly, for the solution on a computer of a sample investment
problem.
The theoretical formulation of the problems and the collection
of most of the data should be completed by the end of FY 1961;. How-
ever, interim reports similar to that attached herewith are contemplated
as significant phases in the problem formulation are completed.
13
-------
SOME RESULTS ON THE OPTIML ALLOCATION OF FUNDS FOR WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT
Most administrators face the central problem of economics: the optimal
allocation of scarce resources. That is, how ought limited funds be spent
to accomplish as much as possible with them? When planning the construc-
tion of facilities to increase water quality, the economic problem can
be posed as:
1) To minimize the amount of funds necess?ry to attain a given
quality
2) To maximize the quality attainable with a fixed amount of
funds.
We have considered these problems as they arise in a one-dimensional estu-
ary in which it can be assumed that the quality variable of interest (e.g.
dissolved oxygen) is the response to stimuli acting upon the estuary in each
of several different sections (each section of finite volume). We consider
the construction of facilities at each of the sections on which the stim-
uli are operating to improve the quality. For example, we may be con-
sidering the degree of treatment given to wastes introduced into the
estuary in each of its sections. Then the problems corresponding to (1)
and (2) above are
a) If we want the quality variable (e.g. dissolved oxygen) to
increase from its present low to at least a specified
value during a portion of the year (e.g. summer and fall),
we want to know how best to distribute funds amongst in-
creased treatment facilities at each of the sections so
that we can reach our quality objective as inexpensively
as possible.
b) Let us say that we have only a fixed amount of funds avail-
able for increasing the quality^ we want to know how to
allocate it to various facilities at each of the sections so
as to maximize the improvement in the water quality variable.
Hi
-------
It is clear that there is a cost associated with any plan for the
construction or alteration of facilities. We have made the assumption
here that the cost associated with facilities at several sections is the
sum of the costs associated with facilities at several sections is the
That is, the costs of facilities in one section are independent of the
actions we may take in other sections. There is, of course, the continual
restraint that the actions at each of the sections, when taken simultan-
eously, must permit us to reach our objective while minimizing costs (or
maximize quality without exceeding our cost limitation).
This type of problem is amenable to mathematical formulation and we
have derived optimal solutions. These solutions are dependent upon the
costs of facilities of varying capacity at each of the sections and upon
the physical (i.e. hydrodynamic) characteristics of each section of the
estuary. In order to illustrate this dependence, we have an example.
EXAMPLE
Consider an estuary consisting of a sequence of four sections. At
each of these, wastes enter the estuary. Let us say that we are parti-
cularly concerned about the dissolved oxygen concentration. Accordingly,
we are considering increasing the degree of treatment given to the wastes
before they enter each section. Let
x-^ = the increase in treatment applied to wastes entering the first section,
X2 = the increase in treatment applied to wastes entering the second section,
x^ = the increase in treatment applied to wastes entering the third section,
x^ = the increase in treatment applied to wastes entering the last section.
Let us say that we are particularly concerned about the D.O. in section 3}
let
K = the increase in D.O. observed in the third section as a result of
x-^, Xpj x^ and x^, the increased treatment given wastes.
-------
XI, X2, x3 and x^ contribute to K, the D.O. in section 3, according to
the flow, reaeration and turbulence characteristics of their respective
sections; let
Wj = a number representing x-, 's contribution to K (the effect, on the
D.O. in section 3, of increasing the treatment of wastes before
they enter section 1);
= a number representing X2's contribution to K (the effect, on the
D.O. in section 3, of increasing the treatment of wastes before
they enter section 2);
= a number representing x^'s contribution to K (the effect on the
D.O. in section 3, of increasing the treatment of wastes before
they enter section 3);
w^ = a number representing x^'s contribution to K (the effect, on the
D.O. in section 3, of increasing the treatment of wastes before
they enter section It).
Assume that w^ = 0.0%, W2 = 0.10, w^ = 0.30 and w^ = 0.0%. (Although
these values are arbitrary, recently developed techniques exist which
permit their computation). Then
K = O.OSx-^ + 0.10x2 * 0.30x^ + 0.05x^.
While we should like K to be as large as possible, we have to consider
the costs of doing so. Here, we are assuming w-^, w^, w and w^ to be
fixed and we are only able to vary xp x^, x^ and x^. We assume that
the cost of attaining K equals the cost of x^ plus the cost of x2 plus
the cost of x^ plus the cost of x^. For the sake of illustration, let
C = the cost of attaining K, in $;
10e^"^xl = "the cost of increasing treatment of wastes by an amount x^
before they enter section 1 in $;
lOe^'^Z = the cost of increasing treatment of wastes by an amount x^
before they enter section 2 in $;
16
-------
10e^'^x3 = the cost of increasing treatment of wastes by an amount x^
before they enter section 3 in $?
10e^'^xU = the cost of increasing treatment of wastes by an amount
before they enter section h in $.
Then C-lOe1^*! + lOe1'^ + 10e1,5x3 + 10e1,5xU; as x^ xg, x^, and x^
increase, C, the cost, increases and so does K, the improvement in the
dissolved oxygen concentration.
Using these assumptions and notations, typical dual problems (analog-
ous to a) and b) on the first and second pages) are:
a) Find x-p x2, x^ and x^ to improve K, the D.O., by 3 mg/l
while minimizing C, the cost of attaining K.
b) Find x-p Xg, x^ and x^ to improve K as much as possible
while restricting C, the cost, to $2,000,000.
By applying classical techniques of mathematical analysis, the minimal
cost solution to problem a) and the maximal quality solution to problem
b) were found to be:
a) xx = 5.19
x2 = 5.65
= 6.38
xu - 5.19
The values above required the minimum cost to generate a D.O.
increase of 3 as specified; that cost was $2^1,853. The rate
of change of this minimal cost as the target D.O., K, changes
is 89.5e3K'
b) x1 = 6.72
x2 = 7.06
x3 = 7.79
x^ = 6.72
-xlf any of the x's are equal to zero, let their cost functions equal zero.
17
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
The values above maximized K, the improvement in D.O.,
while restricting the total cost to $2,000,000. The
increase in D.O. thus attained was 3.72. The rate at
which the highest attainable improvement changes as
0.333
the cost restriction, C, changes is —q—•
These examples emphasize the relationship that exists between objec-
tives and their costs of attainment when the costs are similar to those
we assumed. This correspondence may be seen by comparing the solutions
to a) and b). It costs at least $2^2,000 to bring about an improvement
of 3 in the D.O. Multiplying the $21*2,000 by 7.26 and obtaining
$2,000,000, however, only increases the improvement from 3 to 3.72; i.e.
a 12% increase in cost permitted us to raise our objective by only 2h%l
MORE GENERAL FORMULATION
The problems whose solutions were illustrated can be posed much
more generally. In particular, each of the costs associated with x-^, Xg,
x3) °r Xii cou^ have depended on its value (the x) in any way whatsoever.
Also, the restrictions K=3, C=$2,000,000 and the values w^ = .05, = 0.10,
w^ = 0.30 and w^ = 0.05 were completely arbitrary. One can, as well, en-
vision problems in which the concentration in more than one section is of
particular interest. In problem a), for example, we might have sought
x^, X2, x^ and x^ (at minimum cost) such that the improvement in the third
section is 3 and, simultaneously, the improvement in the fourth section
is 2. Problems of this sort can be solved but they require a greater
computational effort. Finally, we can represent the w's (here w-^ W2>
w^ and w^) as functions of flows, reaeration and turbulence characteris-
tics and consider the costs of varying them. In order to solve either the
first or second problems in this form would require extended computations.
18
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
8. INVENTORIES
A. Water Uses
Information on water uses is included on the form being used
for the Industrial Waste Survey.
Remaining information is available in the Corps of Engineers
Comprehensive Report, Appendix C.
B. Industrial Waste Survey-
Collection of data is being done by the Health Departments of
the States of Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Attached is
a copy 01 the form being used. As of December ii, 1963, the in-
ventory was 1±0$ completed in Pennsylvania, 30$ in New Jersey and
1% in Delaware. Discussions with the men in charge indicated
that all expected to have their inventories completed by June 30,
1963.
Data on waste discharges from municipal treatment plants are
being received regularly by this office. However, there are
still a few plants that must be contacted.
No special code is anticipated for processing of the inven-
tory data. A code has been set up, however, to identify the
industry and its relationship to other points of discharge.
Provisions are being made now for storing this data in a manner
suitable for its use in the water quality forecasting model.
This will be essentially by the sections of the Estuary for
which quality forecasts will be made.
-------
WATER AND WASTE INVENTORY
DELAWARE RIVER TIDAL SYSTEM
Notes to aid In completing form DE5-1
1 - Use present name of company and plant.
2 - Use plant address.
3 - Use mailing address, if same, indicate.
- Location of plant by county, township, borough, etc.
6 - Refers to date when plant started operating at present location.
7 - Indicate average number of employees per shift.
8 - Indicate months when plant normally operates.
9 - Indicate average number of days operating/week during a normal
season.
Also indicate number of days operating/week during peak season.
10 - Itemize only major products.
11 - List only major raw materials.
12 - In completing this table the average flow values should be used.
Metered values are preferred, but if they are not available use
estimated flows. Please indicate with "M" for metered flows, and
with "E" for estimated flows.
Definitions
Public Supply - Water obtained from the supply serving the
municipality.
Surface (Private) - Water obtained by the firm from lakes,
streams, rivers, etc.
Wells (Private) - Water obtained by the firm from wells.
13 - This question should only be answered by firms applying treatment
to their water obtained either from the public or private supply.
If no treatment is required, indicate by answering none.
lU a)- Here again average flow values should be used. Metered values
are preferred, but if they are not available use estimated flows.
Please indicate with "M" for metered flows and with "E" for
estimated flows.
b)- If the firm has more than one industrial waste discharge point
to a surface stream or watercourse, list each industrial waste
discharge separately as A, B, C, D, etc. If more than one waste is
discharged at the same point list only as a single waste.
1$ - We will appreciate any remarks that you have concerning this
inventory.
-------
DES-1
INVENTORY OF
WATER USE AND WASTE WATER DISCHARGE
DELAWARE RIVER ITDAL SYSTEM
1. Name
2. Site Address 3- P« 0. Address
4. County 5- Political Subdivision
6. At Site Since •
7- Total number of employees per shift 1st 2nd 3rd
8. Months operating per year
9. Number of days operating per week Normal Peak
10. Products Manufactured
11. Raw Mate rials
12. Water Use
Water
Sources
aallons per 2b hour day (indicate metered or estimated)
Total
Sanitary Purposes
.Industrial Purposes
Cooling Purposes
Public Supply
Surface (Private)
tfells (Private)
13- Brief description of water treatment by firm, if any, before use:
l4. Waste Water Discharge
Waste Water
Source
jallons per 2k hour day (indicate 11
aetered or estimated)
Total
To Municipal
Sewer
To subsurface
or lagoons
To surface
Watercourse
Other
Sanitary Sewage
Cooling Water
1
Industrial Waste(A)
Industrial Waste(B)
**
Industrial Waste(C)
1 **
* (etc)
*For additional industrial wastes use reverse side
**For industrial waste to surface stream or watercourse, also fill out Form
DES-2
15. Remarks
Prepared by
Title
Date
-------
WATER AMD WASTE INVENTORY
DELAWARE RIVER TIDAL SYSTEM
Notes to aid In completing Form PES-2
Form DES-2 should be filled out only by firms having industrial
waste water discharged to surface streams or water courses. A separate
form should be completed for each industrial waste discharged. It is
not necessary to complete form DES-2 for each industrial waste if dis-
charged at a common point.
1 - Use present name of company and plant.
2,3 - Location of plant by county, township, borough, etc.
U - Give the general class of the waste such as paper mill
waste, refining waste, dye waste, etc.
5 - Name the receiving stream or water course for this waste.
6 - Here again average flow values should be used. Metered
values are preferred, but if they are not available use
estimated flows. Please indicate with "M" for metered
flows and with "E" for estimated flows.
7 - This table contains a list of properties of industrial
waste water in which we are presently interested. Complete
as much of the table as possible from your available in-
formation. Please feel free to add as many additional
properties as you desire.
8 - For this description please do not go into much detail.
Simply describe the type of industrial waste treatment
that you are now using, if any.
9 - We will appreciate any remarks that you have concerning
this inventory.
-------
DES-2
INDUS TRIAL WASTES ( ) l1
DISCHARGED TO SURFACE STREAMS OR WATER COURSES
(Does not include Discharges to Municipal Sanitary Sewer Systems)
1. Name
2. County 3. Political Subdivision
4. Type of. Waste 5, Rec'g. Stream or watercourse
6. Quantity of Waste (gallons per 2k- hours)
7. Average characterisitics of Wastes as Discharged (All results rexpressed in ppm
or
mg/l except pH.)
a.
PH
b.
Alkalinity
c.
Acidity (Mineral)
d.
Acidity (Total)
e.
B.O.D. (5-day)
f.
B.O.D. (Ultimate)
g-
C.O.D.
h.
Total Dissolved Solids
i.
Total Suspended Solids
J •
k.
1.
Date of Sample Collection
Samples Collected By
Method of Sample Collection (indicate whether composite or grab samples; duration.
of sampling period and sampling interval)
Analyses Performed By
8. Briefly Describe Treatment Process, if any and name individual treatment units
9. Remarks
Date • Prepared by
Title
/l Industrial Waste A, B, or C etc. from DES-1, Item 1^ (insert proper letter)
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DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
9. ECONOMIC STUDIES
No economic studies are in progress. It is planned that
pending recruitment of an Economist, some preliminary work
will be begun on obtaining approximate cost functions. This
will assist in sketching a broad framework within which pre-
liminary control measures can be evaluated.
10. TITLE III AMD FLOW REGULATION
No studies undertaken by staff. See Fiscal Year 1961*
Budget which has unauthorized position for an Assistant
Engineer to handle these projects.
11. HYDROLOGY
No activities underway in
statistical analyses of fresh
anticipated by the end of the
data will be taken from Corps
Study, Appendix M.
this category. Some advanced
water inflow at Trenton are
year. Majority of hydrologic
of Engineers' Comprehensive
12. OCEANOGRAPHY
See part 3 under Activities - Fiscal Year 1963 section.
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
13. ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Bibliography:
1. Thomann, Robert V., The Use of Systems Analysis to Describe the
Time Variation of Dissolved Oxygen in a Tidal Stream, Ph. D.
dissertation in Dept. of Meteorology and Oceanography, New York:
New York University, 1962. Submitted December 1962.
2. Thomann, Robert V. and Matthew J. Sobel, Estuarine Water Quality
Forecasting and Management, to be presented at the meeting of
the Sanitary Engineering Division of the ASCE in Milwaukee, Wis.,
May 1963.
3. Sobel, Matthew J., An Investment Model for the Control of Dis-
solved Oxygen in a One-Dimensional Estuary, submitted for pre-
sentation at the meeting of the Operations Research Society of
America in Cleveland, Ohio, May 1963.
COMPLETION OF MAJOR SUB-PORTIONS AND
TOTAL PROJECT BY END OF FY 63
Activity
Per Cent Complete
by 6/63
Remarks
Field Studies
(Chemical, biochemical
and bacteriological)
50%
Not including dye
studies and bio-
logical studies
Dye Studies
2%
Biological Studies
h0%
Data Processing Backlog
100$
Backlog should be
completed. Pro-
cessing will con-
tinue on routine
basis
Water Quality Forecasting
Model
30%
Complete model must
await one full year
of field data
Water Quality Management
20#
Total Project
30$
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
FISCAL YEAR 1963
Vacancy
Title
1 Biologist
2 Economist
3 Chemist
U Stenographer
5 Asst. Evalu-
ation Engr.
6 Engineer
Hi. PERSONNEL NEEDS - FISCAL YEAR 1963
Analysis of Vacancies
a. Authorized
Status of Person Under
Position Description Consideration
Approved BSS
Grade Written by Region No.
11
11
7
h
ASE
ASE
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Name
Yes 6170 A. Morris
Yes B. DePrater
Yes R. Smoller
Rated Notes EOD
2/3/63
Yes
Yes
Yes
1
2
3
h
5
6
1/7/63
2A/63
b. Unauthorized Vacancies
1 None
Notes
1 Position was established on September 7, 1962. On December 11, 1962 Mr. O'Connor
informed Mr. Alvin Morris of his appointment and requested that he report on
February h, 1963. It should be noted that Mr. Morris' certification is depend-
ent upon his Doctoral Degree.
2 Position description being prepared.
3 Position was established on Mr. DePrater is presently work-
ing as a GS-7 with the in Bartlesville, Oklahoma.
h Miss Smoller has been notified of her appointment and was requested to report
on February h, 1962.
5 Through the Regional Officfete recruitment program we are attempting to find an
officer with suitable training for this position.
6 It is expected that this position will be filled by a Civil or Sanitary Engineer
graduating in June 1963.
-------
1$. PLANS & SCHEDULE - FY 196U
Investigation in Progress or to be Undertaken in FY 196U
1. Field Studies
This is a continuing investigation begun in FY 1963• A general
description of the investigation is given under Activities - FY 1963,
1. Field Studies,
a. Industrial Waste Study-
However, during FY 1961; a more detailed folloxir-up on the
industrial waste inventory will be necessary. After the in-
ventory has been completed, the industries will be ordered as
to the relative magnitude of wastes and then more detailed
analyses will be made. These investigations will include
gauging the volume of effluents as well as the time variation
of load from the plant. The report on this investigation will
summarize the inventory data collected by the States and will
present the more detailed analyses of the wastes. The time
variation of these effluents will be discussed and the results
of computation performed will be presented.
The calculations will include Fourier analyses, followed
by power spectral analyses of the residual record. This in-
formation is necessary in order to incorporate these discharges
into the quality model.
From present data there are probably 10 - 12 major indus-
tries which will be sampled. Present plans are to sample these
industries once each week for about one year. Laboratory analyses
will be required for BOD and COD determination and several other
routine chemical tests (pH, alkalinity, acidity, etc.).
Two engineers, each half time plus the services of an addi-
tional chemist are planned for this work. Supplementing the
19
-------
manpower, plans are now being made for the installation of
automatic sampling equipment and flow measuring devices. Some
assistance from the States is anticipated.
About three months will be required to complete the report
at the end of the sampling period. This allows about six weeks
for the necessary computer work,
b. Signal Converters
A final aspect under the field studies section will be the
continued cooperation with Philadelphia and the U. S. Geological
Survey in their monitoring network. This cooperation will take
the form of assistance in providing a suitable instrument output
from the present monitoring stations. This will result in a
more workable scheme for the transmittal of data from the instru-
ment to the final computing stages. By Fiscal Year I96I4 there
will be six monitoring stations in operation. Discussions will
be held on the most suitable arrangement for converting the out-
put signal from these instruments to a more manageable data format.
2. Data Processing
This is a continuing activity and a description is provided
under Activities FY 1963.
SPECIAL STUDIES
a. Storm Water Overflow
This investigation is designed to provide much needed informa-
tion on the quantity, load and frequency of storm water overflows
from combined sewers in the major metropolitan areas. The water
quality forecasting model as it now exists is capable of assessing
at least in a mathematical form the effects of sharp transient over-
flow increases on the quality of the stream.
A report on this investigation will detail the apparatus used
20
-------
to collect the data as well as present the data itself. Discussions
will be given of possible parametric forms which could be used to
describe the transients.
The calculations which are anticipated will be primarily the
determination of significant parametric equations which could be
used in the quality model. Some economic calculations will be
made as to the feasibility of possible control schemes.
The field collection of samples will probably be made by auto-
matic equipment. Initial discussions with manufacturers' repre-
sentatives have already been started. Two engineers and a COSTEP
all half time and a chemist half time are planned for this investi-
gation.
The critical period for this investigation will be the summer
and early fall of 1963.
About two months will be required to prepare a report. Comple-
tion is thus expected by about January 1, I96J4.
b. Tidal Current Study
This investigation will attempt to determine the effects of
changing fresh water inflow and changing wind field pattern on the
current regime of the estuary. A report will be prepared which
will outline the equipment used, a summary of the data collected and
an analysis of the data together with interpretation of results.
The calculations will include Fourier analyses to remove domin-
ant periodic influences from the record followed by construction of
a residual record and finally spectral and cross-spectral analyses
<¦ ^of the residuals. In order to perform these analyses, data will be
collected continuously for a period of about two months at five or
six locations. The current instruments will then be shuffled to
provide information on the vertical current gradient, if any.
-------
One engineer half time is planned for this work. This will entail
placing of meters and retrieval of data as well as the analysis and
interpretation of results.
The critical periods for these current investigations are:
1) At the end of a period of essentially steady
inflow (usually September or October)
2) During a period of sharp transients in inflow
(usually during May and June)
It is anticipated that about six months after completion of
sampling and computations will be required before a finished report
will be on hand.
c. Economics of Estuarial ITater Quality Management
The economic investigations of FY 19&h will provide a means of
comparing the technological alternatives found while analyzing
problems of water quality management. With data on relative util-
ities and costs, combinations of the alternatives may be found which
are optimal with respect to various criteria. The report will in-
clude the intended uses of the data by the DECS, the assumptions
made while they were collected and analyzed, a statistical summary,
inferences from the data (marginal analysis) to managerial problems
in the Delaware Estuary and results of more general interest (if any
are obtained).
The needed data are of two kinds: the costs of specific techno-
logical alternatives and the benefits associated with several levels
of various qualitative attributes (dissolved oxygen, temperature,
salinity, and turbidity) of the Estuary. Through the use of utility
theory, attempts will be made to impute equivalent economic values
to the social or non-economic benefits of various quality levels.
These will be added to the economic benefits to construct curves
22
-------
of the marginal utilities over ranges of quality levels for
several attributes; the major emphasis will be on dissolved
oxygen concentration. The cost data will be used in a sequence
of mathematical programming models with varying budgetary
constraints. From the sequence of solutions, marginal cost
curves will be constructed and compared with the marginal
benefit curves.
Some actions whose costs will be explored during FY 196U
are:
(1) Waste treatment plant construction and expansion;
(ii) Control of photosynthetic production of oxygen;
(iii) Mechanical aerators;
(iv) Heat exchanging devices to cool the water;
(v) Changing the volume of various segments of the
Estuary (by dredging or filling);
(vi) Construction of various structures to modify
storm water overflows;
(vii) Installation and operation of a surveillance
system to detect severe transient phenomena
such as discharges of untreated wastes and
algae blooms;
(viii) Controlling the variability of treatment plant
operations.
It is expected that (i) - (v) will be reported upon during
FY 196ii; depending upon the ease of securing data, some of
(vi) - (viii) may be included.
No field sampling or laboratory support will be necessary.
The sources of the cost data will be the States, the City of
Philadelphia, equipment manufacturers and standard engineering
23
-------
references. The sources for benefit data will include the
above and also those industries that would be closely-
effected by the availability of water with increased quality.
The collection and analysis of data and writing the report
will require one half time of an Economist and one and one half
Engineers. There are no seasons during which activity is crit-
ical. Because data will be summarized and analyzed throughout
the year, the report should be written in a period of about
one month.
3. Water Quality Forecasting and Management
See Activities - FY 1963, 3. Water Quality Forecasting and k.
Estuarine Water Quality Management. These are continuing activities
and no expansion is planned during FY 1961*.
!;. Contracts
a. Contract to determine economic feasibility of short and
long term control measures.
This contract is designed to determine the engineering
economics and design of short and long term control mea-
sures. It would include an investigation of direct aera-
tion in a tidal stream, economics and design of storm
water overflow control measures, and changes in outfall
locations. As specific control procedures become evident
from the quality model, it is anticipated that a reputable
consulting firm will be called upon to present a preliminary
design and cost to accomplish the desired objective.
Short reports for each control procedure will be required
of the contractor. It is expected that this contract will
be a continuing one throughout FY 1961; and into FY 1965.
2h
-------
The second contract would entail preparation of a report
on a workable data collection, forecasting and control
center. It would entail the extent of such a facility,
the most economical means of data transmission and col-
lection, effective means of computing and disseminating
forecasts and effective means of communicating short-term
management requirements. This report could form the nucleus
for future management of water quality of the Estuary by a
suitable control agency. It is anticipated that the report
will provide information on the physical plant which would
be necessary if suitable techniques were available for
forecasting and management.
A firm such as Travelers Research of Hartford which has had
experience in this area may be engaged to carry out
the work. A report will be requested by June 196iu
A fisheries resource reimbursible project with the Fish
and Wildlife Service is planned. This project would include
estimates of the number and diversity of anadromous fishes
and the value of the resource including the value of a
restoration of past runs. Since this project is concerned
principally with a low oxygen problem in the Estuary and
the effects of this problem on the fisheries resource,
this project is deemed most desirable. The Fish and Wildlife
Service has done some preliminary work in this regard for
the Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Study and this project
would be an extension of that investigation.
25
-------
Description of Investigations in FY 196It - Chart I
A. Estuary sampling - Once a week chemical, biological and bacteriological
sampling at lit points in Estuary. Two Engineers, one Biologist once a
week in field. One Chemist in laboratory. One 3E>' boat required.
B. Dye studies - Four fluorometers and three 351 boats required. No lab-
oratory support needed. Six men required in field. Two weeks to pre-
pare report.
C. Storm water overflow - Sampling of major overflows during storms using
automatic equipment. One field engineer and COSTEP with laboratory
support of chemist required. Two months to complete report.
D. Tidal current study - One Engineer (half time) plus current measuring
devices and servicing boat. No laboratory support. Six months to
complete report on investigation.
E. Economic studies - One and one-half Engineer and Economist (half-
time) required. About four weeks required to complete an interim
report. Upon completion of storm water overflow studies, economic
investigations into control of these overflows and also control of
treatment plant operations will be resumed.
F. Water quality forecasting - One and a half Engineers required with
no laboratory support. Interim reports will be prepared as signi-
ficant developments occur.
G. Estuarine water quality management - Continuing investigation into
new techniques undertaken by evaluation engineer and economist both
on a half-time basis.
H. Industrial waste sampling - About 12 industries sampled once each
week for a year using automatic sampling equipment. One Engineer
required with laboratory support of one Chemist. Three months re-
quired to complete report.
I. Project management and clerical help
26
-------
CHART I
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
FY. 196i\ - Objectives
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Oct.
I
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-/ / /
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/ / I
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Oct.
FY 1963
FY 196U
FY 1965
-------
ORGANIZATION CHART FOR DELAWARE ESTCART STOUT
V. Y. lgfeh '
Project Director - E. L. MacLeman (3.E.D.)
Aast. Project Director - R. V. Thcmaim (3.A.)
SECTION I
Short Tern Forecasting
.and Kanageaeat
FIELD STODIES
Estuarr Sampling
Biologist (GS-11-1/2) A. Korrls
Engineer (Asst.'- 1/2) Blackard
Engineer (Asst. - 1/2) D. Stoltenberg
COSTEP (Stsaner 1/2)
Industrial Waste Sampling
Engineer (3.A.-1/2) A. Bromberg
Engineer (Aast.-1/2) Vacant
laboratory
'Chemist (03-9) Vacant
Chemist (OS-7-1/2) B. DePrater
Biologist (03-11-1/2) A. Morris
SPECIAL 3TODIES
Storm Water Overflow
i Engineer (Asst.-1/2) D. Wright
f>iglneer (Asst.-1/2) W. Blackard
Chemist (GS-7-1/2) B. DePrater
COSTEP (Summer-1/2)
Tidal.Current Study
Engineer (Asst.-1/2) Vacant '
C of E and 3 C 3 Projects
Engineer (Asst.) Vacant
PROCESSING OP DATA
Engineer (Asst.-1/2) D. Wright
Stenographers
(QS-L)
P. Plree
(OS-L) R. Sraoller
"1
SECTICW II
Long Tern Forecasting
and Management
DATA ANALYSIS
AND INTERPRETATION
Engineer (S.A.-1/2) H. Sobel
Engineer (Asst.-1/2) D. Stoltenberg
Engineer (Asst.-l/2) Vacant
Economist (OS-11-1/?) Vacant.
SPECIAL STODIES
Engineer (S.A.-l/?) M. Sobel
Engineer (Asst.-!/?) Vacant
Economist (OS-ll-l/2) Vacant
CONTRACTS
Engineer (3.A.-1/2) A.-Bromberg
-------
18. DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
ROSTER - PROPOSED FISCAL YEAR 196U
7/1/63-
1/1/6U-
BSS
12/31/63
6/30/6U
Grade
Title & Name
Job No.
Total-"*
Total*
1
San. Engr. Dir.
Project Director
$6,555
E. L. MacLeman
-
$6,555
2
San. Engr.
Asst. Proj. Director
R. V. Thomann
-
U,03 5
U,035
3
Sr. Asst. San. Engr.
Evaluation Engineer
M. Sobel
-
3,035
3,035
U
Sr. Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
3,035
3,035
A. Bromberg
-
5
Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
D. Stoltenberg
_
2,719
2,719
6
Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
W. Blackard
2,719
2,719
7
Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
D. Wright
2,719
2,719
8
G. S. ha
Stenographer
P. Piree
RO-II-282
2,289
2,U36
9
Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
E.O.D. 6/15/63
Vacant
-
2,719
2,719
10
Asst. San. Engr.
Engineer
E.O.D. 7/1/63
Vacant
-
2,719
2,719
11
Asst. San. Engr.
Asst. Evaluation Engr.
E.O.D. 2/1/63
Vacant
-
2,719
2,719
12
G. S. 11a
Biologist
E.O.D. 2/3/63
A. Morris
BSS-6170
h,h36
U,693
13
G. S. lid
Economist
E.O.D. 2/1/63
Vacant
-
h,87h
5,001
Hi
G. S. 9a
Chemist
E.O.D. 7/1/63
Vacant
bss-55oi
3,701
3,929
15
G. S. 7a
Chemist
E.O.D. 1/7/63
B. DePrater
BSS-5502
3,598
3,680
16
G. S. lia
Stenographer
2,653
E.O.D. 2/li/63
R. Smoller
RO-11-282
2,581
17
COSTEP
Engineer-Summer
-
885
-
-x- For Commissioned Corps includes:
1. Base
2. Rental
3. Subsistence
U, FICA
For Civil Service includes:
1. Retirement
2. FEGLI
3. H. B.
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
19. PERSONNEL NEEDS
At the present time recruitment plans call for an increase of
only two positions for FY 196k. These are an Assistant Sanitary-
Engineer and a Chemist. It is hoped that we will be able to fully
meet our FY 1963 plans and with the addition of these two new posi-
tions carry on the special studies planned for early FY 1961j . The
Assistant Sanitary Engineer would be expected with some assistance
to handle all Corps of Engineers projects when the special studies
are reduced in scope and number.
The writing of job descriptions and recruitment of personnel
is carried on with the assistance of the Regional Office.
20. MAJOR ITEMS OF EQUIPMENT NEEDED TO CARRY OUT THE FY 1961*
PROGRAM
Office Laboratory
BOD Incubator 8/1/63
Desks, bookcases, tables 8/1/63
Other
Tidal Current Meters 9/1/63
Automatic Samplers and Flow Measuring Equipment 8/1/63
Signal Converters 7/1/63
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
21. BUDGET ESTIMATE FOR FISCAL YEAR 196)4
A. Estimate by Quarters
[tem
No.
Description
1
Quarters
2 3
¦ h
Total
1
Rent
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
10,000
2
Personnel Compensation
)28,000
)
)
27,200
27,200
27,200
(109,600
(
(
3
Personnel Benefits
h
Travel
1,700
1,700
1,700
1,700
6,800
5
Vehicles (2 GSA cars)
500
500
500
500
2,000
6
Communications
Uoo
hoo
liOO
iiOO
1,600
7
Contracts
15,000
20,000
15,000
-
50,000
8
Data Processing &
C omputer Time (P.O.)
20,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
23,000
9
Office Equipment (P.O.)
700
100
100
100
1,000
10
Office Supplies (P.O.)
) 300
)
)
200
300
200
( 1,000
(
(
11
Office Supplies (R.O.)
12
Laboratory Equipment (P.O.)
25,000
3,000
1,000
-
29,000
13
Laboratory Supplies (P.O.)
) 3,000
)
.))
2,000
1,500
1,500
( 8,000
(
(
Hi
Laboratory Supplies (Rar. Lab.
15
Launch Service (P.O.)
3,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
10,000
16
Miscellaneous
-
-
-
-
-
Total
100,600
61,100
53,200
37,100
252,000
-------
BUDGET - FISCAL YEAR 196k
B. By Internal and External Expenditures
First Half
FY 1961;
Internal 12 7,000
External
Contracts for investigations
or services 35,000
Total 162,000
C. By Activities
Project headquarters and
administration 20,5>00
Office rent 5,000
Estuary field studies,
sampling, dye 16,500
Inventories 2,000
Data Processing
(including card punching) 21,000
Data Analysis 6,000
Laboratory U0,500
Special Studies 15,500
Contracts 35,000
Estimated for Second
Half FY 196U
75,000
15,000
90,000
19,500
5,000
15,500
1,000
2,000
6,500
11,500
ill, 000
15,000
Total
162,000
90,000
-------
- FISCAL YEAR 196k contd.
By uniform classification according to objects
First Half Estimated for Second
FY 196k Half FY 196U
Personal Services and Benefits
Personnel compensation 37,000 37,000
Personnel benefits 18,000 17,000
Contractual Services and Supplies
Travel and transportation of persons k,000 14,000
Rent, communications and utilities 6,000 6,000
Other services 62,000 21,000
Supplies and materials 6,000 1|,000
Acquisition of Capital Assets
Equipment 29,000 1,000
Total
162,000
90,000
-------
22. LONG RANGE OBJECTIVES
Introduction
The long range objectives of the Delaware Estuary Study call for comple-
tion of the project by June 1966. At that time, the final comprehensive
program for the management of the water quality of the Estuary will have
been formulated and will have been reviewed by the appropriate agencies.
In order to meet this goal, it is necessary to allow sufficient time after
completion of field studies to perform the necessary calculations in order
to produce a workable program. Reference is made in the following discus-
sion to the attached graph which outlines the major activities.
The project will provide the agencies of the area with a set of tech-
niques for forecasting and managing the quality of the Estuary. These
techniques will take the form of mathematical models which will afford the
user the opportunity to describe the variation of quality in the future,
make rational and technically well-founded decisions on alternatives to
control the quality and finally to accomplish these aims within a given
economic environment. Specific proposals will be made in the final program
which will alleviate present poor quality conditions. These proposals
will consist of long term investments which will have to be made as well as
short term procedures which can be used as situations develop. The "least
cost" solutions will be presented to attain several different levels of
quality. Guides will be provided for the decision makers in the future so
that as developments change, these changes can be taken into account. In
summary then, the project will result in the application of relatively
new techniques to the management of water quality. It is not anticipated
that the project will attempt itself to exercise specific forecasting or
control procedures on a routine basis. Rather, a type of simulation will
be used which will indicate to the appropriate agencies the possible way
in which forecasting and management can be effectuated to attain desired
-------
goals. Trial forecasting procedures will be undertaken and if possible
the cooperation of some of the larger treatment plants may be enlisted
to test the theory of specific control procedures.
Project Activities
1. Field Studies - By August 1961*, two years of field studies at lit points
in the Estuary will have been completed. This is deemed sufficient to
perform the necessary calculations which will be made, especially on
the stream BOD. The major field operation therefore will be terminated
at this time. Some investigation of tributary streams and biological
analyses will be continued however until approximately December 196U.
The completion of this activity together with the data collected by
other agencies will provide the necessary meaningful data to be incor-
porated in the final forecasting model.
2. Dye Studies - One additional major study in the upper Estuary is con-
templated in September 19&U. This will be followed by a smaller study
on the travel times within certain large plants. The latter data will
be incorporated in a sewage treatment plant model. All data from the
dye studies conducted throughout the project will be summarised, analyzed
and discussed in a report to be completed by November 1965.
3. Storm Water Overflow Study - This investigation will be started again
during July 196U and will include investigation of other metropolitan
complexes in the project area. These include Wilmington, Delaware,
and Camden and Trenton, New Jersey. These data will also be incorpor-
ated into the forecasting and control models.
b. Tidal Current Studies - These studies which are designed to eliminate
present inadequacies in hydrodynamic information about the Estuary
will be continued until about November 1961;. A report which will take
about six months to complete will be finished by June 1965. The field
use of current meters will be primarily during the spring to evaluate
OR
-------
transient flow effects and during the fall to evaluate a period of
steady flow. The use of a computer will be required during the
interim between sampling periods.
$. Water Quality Forecasting - This will be a continuing activity to be
terminated around January 1966. Further testing and expansion of
the water quality mathematical model will be made during this time.
In addition, models of sewage and industrial treatment plant practices
will be investigated and if feasible incorporated into the overall
model. Trial forecasts will be made both on a long and short-term basis.
Data from continuous monitors and from other agencies will continue to
be analyzed and the major features of the variations of these data will
be included. Interim reports on the development and significance of
the model to State agencies will be prepared.
6. Estuarine Water Quality Management - The Evaluation Engineer together
with the Economist will continue to investigate economic, models for
controlling the water quality. This activity is closely allied with
the forecasting unit and both will work together to evaluate the
effects of specific management schemes. By the end of FY 196h sufficient
economic data will have been collected to provide meaningful information
on marginal costs so that during FY 1965 increased emphasis will be
placed on management proposals. Discussions and education will be a
prime sub-activity during this phase. The project must have some
awareness of the goals which the agencies desire and at the same
time the agencies must be aware of some of the possible implications
which may arise from specific water quality control programs.
7. Preparation of Final Report - Since interim reports on the major-
activities will be completed, it is presently felt that these will
be included as technical appendices. The techniques to be used in
forecasting and managing the quality of the estuary will be discussed
29
-------
in both a general and specific fashion. This will be followed by a
presentation of the best solutions to correcting the present situation.
These solutions will include costs of various alternatives and will
present the "best" alternative in a least cost sense. Procedures for
short term control including dissemination of forecasts to interested
parties will be presented analytically and also the physical facilities
which will be needed to accomplish such a program will be detailed.
About eight months will be required to complete the report which will
be submitted June 1966.
30
-------
Key to Bar Graph
A. Estuary sampling - Major portion to be completed August 1961i; some
sampling of tributaries and completion of biological sampling completed
by December 196^. Field crew to be decreased by one Engineer and all
field laboratory work to be discontinued by December I96I4.
B. Dye studies - One additional major study contemplated in September
1961;. Four fluorometers and three 35' boats required. Smaller study
(treatment plant outfalls) to be done during June 1965. Four men and
two 35' boats required. Final report on dye studies due November 1965.
C. Industrial waste sampling - See Bar Graph for FY 1961*. This activity
to be completed August I96I4 with report dxie November 196U.
D. Storm water overflow study - Additional investigation of other major
metropolitan areas (Wilmington, Trenton, Camden) during summer of 1961;.
Two men plus one Chemist. Report due February 1965.
E. Tidal current studies - One Engineer plus 35' boat. Computations
required during interim between sampling. Final report on tidal current
investigations due June 1965.
F. Economic studies - To be completed by end of FY I96I1. See previous
Bar Chart.
G. Water quality forecasting - One and a half Engineers required. Interim
reports probably June 196k and December 1965 depending on significant
accomplishments.
H. Estuarine water quality management - Increasing emphasis during FY 1965
and FY 1966. Evaluation Engineer and Economist to work on specific
proposals for quality control.
I. Project management and clerical help
J. Report writing - About eight months to prepare final report and review
comments.
31
-------
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
ESTIMATED FY 1966 BUDGET
Personnel
First Half
Second Half
Director
$6.5
$6.5
Assistant Director
1.5
ii.5
Evaluation Engineer
3.5
3.5
Asst. Evaluation Engineer
3.0
3.0
Economist
5.0
5.0
Biologist
5.0
5.0
Engineer
3.0
-
Engineer
3.0
-
Engineer
3.0
3.0
Draftsman
1.5
1.5
Stenographer
2.5
2.5
Stenographer
2.5
2.5
$1*3-0
+ $35.0
$78
1966 BUDGET (Contd.
)
Rent
$10,000
Personnel
78,000
Travel
8,000
Vehicles
2,000
Communications
1,600
Data Processing & Computer
6,000
Office Equipment
boo
Office Supplies
2,000
Printing & Miscellaneous
5,000
$113,000
Net
28,000
Taps
$1^1,000
Gross
TABLE SHOWS FUNDS REQUIRED FOR EACH FISCAL YEAR
1963
196U
1965
1966
Net $135,000
$252,000
$152,000
$113,000
Tap 314,000
63,000
38,000
28,000
Gross 169,000
315,000
190,000
iia,ooo
m 32
-------
DELAWARE ESTUARY STUDY
23. BUDGET ESTIMATE FOR FISCAL YEAR 1965
A. Estimate by Quarters
[tem
No.
Description
1
Quarters
2 3
h
Total
1
Rent
2,500
2,500
2,500
2,500
10,000
2
Personnel Compensation
)27,200
)
)
27,200
22,000
22,000
) 98,1*00
)
)
3
Personnel Benefits
h
Travel
i,5oo
1,500
1,500
1,500
6,000
5
Vehicles (2 GSA cars)
5oo
500
5oo
500
2,000
6
Communications
liOO
U00
liOO
Uoo
1,600
7
Contracts
5,000
5,ooo
-
-
10,000
8
Data Processing &
Computer Time (P.O.)
10,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
13,000
9
Office Equipment (P.O.)
100
-
100
-
200
10
Office Supplies (P.O.)
) 250
)
)
250
250
250
) 1,000
11
Office Supplies (R.O.)
)
12
Laboratory Equipment (P.O.)
-
-
-
-
-
13
Laboratory Supplies (P.O.)
) 1,500
)
.))
1,000
-
-
) 2,500
)
)
1U
Laboratory Supplies (Rar. Lab
15
Launch Service (P.O.)
3,5oo
2,000
-
2,000
7,500
16
Miscellaneous
-
-
-
-
-
Total
52,150
141,350
28,250
30,150
152,200
-------
BUDGET - FISCAL YEAR 1965 contd.
B. By internal and External Expenditures
First Half Estimated for Second
FY 196? Half FY 196?
Internal 8^,000 58,000
External
Contracts for investigations
or services ^ 10,000
Total 9iij000 58,000
C. By Activities
Project headquarters and
administration
Office rent
Estuary field studies,
sampling, dye
Data Processing
(including card punching)
Data Analysis
Laboratory
Special Studies
Contracts
20,000 17,000
5,ooo 5,000
16,000 10,000
11,000 2,000
11,000 6,000
6,5oo Ij,ooo
lii, 5oo Hi, coo
10,000
Total
9h,000
58,000
-------
BUDGET - FISCAL YEAR 1965 contd.
D. By uniform classification according to
objects
Personal Services and Benefits
Personnel compensation
Personnel benefits
Contractual Services and Supplies
Travel and transportation of persons
Rent, communications and utilities
Other services
Supplies and materials
Acquisition of Capital Assets
Equipment
First Half Estimated for Second
FY 196g Half FY 196$
37,000 30,000
17,000 1U,000
14,000 U,000
6,000 6,000
27,000 1,000
3,000
Total
914,000
58,ooo
------- |