AND THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
SECTION III
POPULATION AND MANUFACTURING TRENDS
U.S. Departoent of Health, Education, and Welfare
Public Health Service
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control - Region V
Detroit River-Lake Erie Project
-------
A WATER POLLUTION INVESTIGATION
0? THE
' DETROIT HIT*;
Ai:D THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
SECTION III
POPULATION AND MANUFACTURING TRENDS
U.S. Department of Healthy Education, and Welfare
Public Health Service
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control - Region V
Detroit River-Lake Erie Project
-------
SECTION III
POPULATION AND MANUFACTURING TRENDS
-------
POPULATION AND MANUFACTURING TRENDS
INTRODUCTION
In a highly industrialized region such as the Detroit area, the discharge
>f wastes is closely related to population and industrial production.
Estimates of population and manufacturing growth are essential for predicting
¦uture demands upon water resources due to thiB increased growth with
•esulting increase in discharge of wastes-.
The State of Michigan is part of the large industrial complex of the
rnited States known as the "manufacturing "belt." The belt or "strip" com-
trises portions of the three Middle Atlantic States of New Jersey, New York,
ind Pennsylvania and of the five East North Central States of Illinois,
Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Although the State of Michigan is a
'ital part of this entire group of industrial states, it is even more closely
.ssociated with the five East North Central States. The analysis and de-
¦cription of trends of manufacturing and populations on these five states
.s therefore included to present a comparison with the Detroit Project area.
For the purposes of this report on population and manufacturing trends,
¦he Project area referred to herein includes the counties of Macomb, Monroe,
lakland, and Wayne. The Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area
DSMSA) includes only Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne Counties. Monroe County
ias been added to this because of its contiguity to Michigan Lake Erie.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIVITY
Regional Trends
In order to provide a background against which total manufacturing trends
n the Detroit Project area can be seen more clearly, data for selected states
-1-TTT
-------
have been prepared. Table l-III indicates the trends in value added by
manufacture in the"five-state region of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio,
and Wisconsin. As the dollar values shown are not in constant dollars, they
are expressed as a percent of the Nation's total value added by manufacture
during various years from 1939 to 1962.
As a percent of the Nation, the five-state region declined slightly but
steadily from 1939 "to 195$. Actual dollar values did increase, however,
during this period. . The 1962 five-state total of value added by manufacture
as a percent of the Nation was about 29-2 as compared with 29 percent in
1958# and about 31»^ percent in 19^7- Generally, the trend from 195^ to 19o2
was to reverse the slightly downward trend from 19^7 to 1958- In summary,
for the five-state region, the basic tendency is for the region to increase
in industrial activity at about the National rate.
Project Area Trends
Manufacturing activity in Michigan and the Detroit area is characterized
by a high degree of concentration in durable goods manufacture (automobiles,
industrial machinery, etc.). Because of the heavy dependence on such durable
goods, Detroit experiences widespread fluctuations in its economy. As the
United States economy experiences a downward trend, durable goods suffer a
greater contraction of their market than do nondurable goods. Consumers
tend to take advantage of the long life that is built into durable goods
9
and make larger use of the stock of such goods.
The economic pattern of the Detroit area is characterized by the high
degree of concentration in one single industry, namely: motor vehicle pro-
duction. In recent decades, however, the automobile industry has been taking
a smaller proportion of total manufacturing employment in the Detroit area -
some trend in diversification of the manufacturing economy is taking place.
2-III •
-------
TABLE l-III. VALUE ADDED BY TOTAL KAITUFAC1URE FOR ILLINOIS, INDIANA. MICHIGAN. OHIO. AND WISC0>IST?I
1939 - !9o2
DOLLAR AMOUNTS El KILLIOllS
1939
1947
1954
State
Value Added
Value Added
Value Added
Illinois
2201.6
8.936
6683.I
8.995
9663.8
8.232
Indiana
970.2
3.960
2970.0
3.997
4632.0
3.945
Michigan
1798.4
7.34o
5200.1
6.999
8707.2
7.417
Ohio
2125.5
8.675
6358.O
8.558
10154.4
8.650
Wisconsin
686.6
2.802
2171.8
2.923
3198.2
2.724
Total
7782.3
31.763
23383.0
31.472
36355.6
30.968
1958
I960
1962
State
Value Added
Value Added
Value Added
Illinois
11664.1
8.256
12652.6
7.751
12670.9
7.624
Indiana
5^78.1
3.877
6259.8
3.834
7094.0
3.956
Michigan
8363.6
5.920
10864.7
6.656
11969.3
6.675
Ohio
11^72.5
8.120
13841.8
8.479
14577.7
8.129
Wisconsin
3959-5
2.802
4680.3
2.867
5100.2
2.844
Total
40937.8
28.975
48299-2
29.587
51412.1
29.228
= Percent of Nation Note: Dollar values have not been adjusted for price change.
Source: 1939 Census of Manufactures; Census of Manufactures, Volume III, Area Statistics, P 148-49
(for 1947 and 1954); 195$ Census of Manufactures, Area Reports for Illinois, Indiana,
Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin; 19^0 Annual Survey of Manufactures, Part 3 - East North Central
Area Report. 19o2 Annual Survey of Manufactures, Part 3 - East North Central Area Report.
-------
As industrial production rises and falls, demands upon water resources change
and the population fluctuates as people leave and enter the area.
While recognizing the importance of trends in all industries, emphasis . .
is placed on what has been labeled "water-using" industries. These industries
are: food and kindred products, paper and allied products, chemicals and
allied products, petroleum and coal products, and primary metal industries.
Industrial trends (value added by manufacture) in the Detroit SMSA for water
using industries are shown in Table 2-III. Monroe County is not included in
this tabulation as the information was not available.
The information in Table 2-III indicates that the Detroit SMSA's share of
the Nation's total, held relatively constant from 19U7 to 195U, declined sharp-
ly from 19$h to 1958, and regained a large part of the loss by I960. However,
it turned downward again in 1962. As discussed earlier, the large concentra-
tion of durable-goods industries in the Detroit area is the major cause of
this wide fluctuation.
The primary metals industry showed a sharp increase in activity between
1938 an I960. This condition, to a great extent, was due to the close re-
lationship between that industry and the automobile industry - a substantial
part of the steel produced in blast furnace and steelworks in the area is
used by the automotive industry.
As indicated in Table 3-III, as a percent of the Nation, value added by
total manufacture in the four-county Project area declined from 1939 to 19ii7,
remained relatively constant from 19h7 to 195U, and declined sharply from
195U to 1958. Wayne County, which in 1958 accounted for 75 percent of the
value added in the area, declined as a percent of the Nation and &s a percent
of the area from 19li7 to 1958. Again, however, the actual dollar value showed
an increase during this period.
li-III '
-------
TABLE 2-IU. UnXISTRIAL TRSfDS OF DETROIT STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL ARE*, 19**7-19o2
FOR WATER USING UnUSTRISS (VALUE ADDED BY MANUFACTURE)
DOLLAR AMOUNTS HI MILLIONS
191*7
Value Added ^A
1951*
Value Added i'A
1958
a
Value Added $A
Pood and Kindred Products
120.5
5.571*
1.1*31*
213.6
7.762
1.857
256.5
5-951*
1.1*65
Paper and Allied Products
23.O
2.961*
.789
37.9
3.302
. .818
38.6
2.772
.676
Chemicals and Allied Products
123.7
9.079
2.326
219.1
10.121*
2.29U
21*0.8
8.71*1
1.952
Petroleum and Coal Products
35-3
8.191*
1.772
27.6
1*.1*39
1.231
29.1
5.1*99
1.155
Primary Metal Industries
275.3
p
11.400
U.802
1*69.5
12.123
U.7U2
1*32.8
9.975
3-703
Total
577-8
967.7
997.8
i960
1962
Value Added £A
Value Added «5N
Pood and Kindred Products
279.9
.5.806
1.1*23
313. ^
1.71*6
Paper and Allied Products
n/a
n/a
n/a
- ¦
Chemicals and Allied Products
277.3
00
CO
£
1.928
268.3
1.1*96
Petroleum and Coal Products
n/a
-
n/a
n/a
-
Primary Metal Industries
673.0
12.501
5.05U
711.3
3.967
Total
n/a
n/a
N/A «= Not available. Note: Dollar figures have not been adjusted for price changes.
5$A = Percent of five-state.area.
c Percent of Nation.
Source: U.S. Census of Manufactures for years shovn, except i960 and 19^2, vhich are froa U.S. Annual
Survey of Manufactures.
-------
TABLE 3-UI. VALUE ADDED BY MANUFACTURE IN COUNTIES OF THE
DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ERIE PROJECT AREA, 1939 - 1962 *
DOLLAR AMOUNTS IN MILLIONS
1939
19*7
1954
County
Value Added
Value Added
Value Added
*A
Macomb
Monroe
Oakland
Wayne
20.0
13.6
64.0
1004.6
1.81
.1.23
5.80
91.16
.081
.055
.261
4.100
106.it
44.6
261.5
2544.8
3.60
1.51
8.84
86.05
.142
.Ool
• 351
3.426
281.2 ¦
68.0
532.0
3900.0
5.88
1.42
11.14
81.56
.239
.058
.*53
3.322
Total 1102.2
1958
4.497
2957.3
i960
3.980
4781.2
1962
4.072
County
Value Added
dA
Value Added
Value Added $A
Macomb
Monroe
Oakland
Wayne
486.4 '
58.1
538.8
3287.2
11.13
1.33
12.33
75-21
.344
.o4i
.382
2.327
577.3
67.9
866. 4
4219.9
10.07
1.19
15.12
73.62
•353
.041
• 530
2.585
655.2
75.3
1007.7
U320.0
10.80
1.24
16.63
71.31
.365
.042
.562
2.4o4
Total U37O.5
3.094
5731.5
•
3.509
6058.2
3.373
$A = Percent of Project area
$N = Percent of Nation
Source: U.S. Census of Manufactures for years shovm, except i960 end 1962, which are from U.S. Annual
Survey of Manufactures.
-------
During 1962, value added by manufacture in the four-county Project area
totaled approximately 6.1 billion - almost U percent of the Nation's total.
The value added by manufacture was $1.0 percent of Michigan's total and 11.6
percent of the five-state total.
Dollar figures indicating value added by total manufacturing as shown in
Table 3-III and for the major water-using industries as shown in Table 2-III
were converted to I960 constant dollars by use of the wholesale price index
(19U7-Li9"100). Using value added by manufacture in I960 constant dollars
as a measure of industrial activity, all manufacturing output doubled between
1939 and I960, and output of the major water-using industries increased by
eighty percent between 19U7 and I960. The growth rate of all manufacturing
in the area from 1939 to I960 was 3 3/U percent annually compounded. The
growth rate of the major water-using industries from 19U7 to I960 was U 3/U
percent annually compounded. These predictions may be misleading in some
respects, however, because at the present time the major water-using indus-
tries in the Detroit area are located on the Detroit waterfront where very
little room is available for expansion. There is no evidence, however, to
indicate that future industrial growth in the area will be any less than
past growth. Using compound growth rates it is anticipated that total man-
ufacturing in the area will double and the major water-using industries will
increase by lf>0 percent between I960 and 1980. Increases in industrial
activity in the Project area are shown in Figure l-III and Table 8-III.
These figures indicate that either demands upon the water resources of
the area will increase by this amount or pollution control achieved through
waste treatment and more efficient water management will lessen the impact
of this predicted expansion.
7-III
-------
F I 6 U RE l-HI
50
40
30
.20
C/5
Z
0
-J
CD
1
CO
o
<
i
o
<
>
o"
o.
<
/ WAT
ER US
DE TF
1 N G 1
(0IT S
N DUST
MSA
RIE S
o
10
9
8
7
6
5
Z
<
c/>
z
o
o
I
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
1940
19 50
I960
(970
19 80
DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ERIE PROJECT
TRENDS IN VALUE ADDED BY MANUFACTURE
IN PROJECT AREA
1939-1980
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, 8r WELFARE
PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
REGION V 6R0SSE 1LE, MICHIGAN
-------
POPULATION GROWTH
Regional Trends
The trends in total manufacturing employment (as a percent of the Nation)
in the five-state area show great similarity to the trends in value added by
manufacturing. Table U-III indicates that total manufacturing employment for
the five-state region, after a slight increase from 19^7 to 195U, declined
sharply from 195k to 1956. From 19l7 to 1958 (omitting 195U), Michigan showed
the largest decline; Illinois and Ohio showed less severe declines; the Indiana
ratio was rather stable; and Wisconsin showed an increase.
Regional population trends from 19^0 to I960 are shown in Table 5-III.
The total five-state population trend from 19li0 to I960 showed little change
as a percent of the Nation, remaining at about 20 percent. The State of
Michigan trend, however, has been to increase as a percent of the Nation even
during the 1950 to I960 decade. In contrast, Illinois declined as a percent
of the Nation. All states, however, showed an actual increase in population
during this period.
Project Area Trends
Manufacturing employment trends in the study area have declined sharply
since 19U7 both in total numbers and as a percent of the Nation. The percent-
age has declined to a level of 2.6 percent of the Nation as contrasted to 3.7
percent in 19^7. Automation in the durable goods manufacture and the decen-
tralization of the automobile industry probably account for this decline in
employment. Employment trends are shown in Table 6-III.
As shown in Table 7-III, the total population of the four-county Project
area increased from approximately 2.U million in 19U0 to 3 million in 1950
3.9 million in I960. This amounts to li9 percent of the entire population
of the State of Michigan. Within the Project area, the more rapid rates of
8-III
-------
TABLE 4-UI. TOTAL MAITUFACOUKEIG EMPLOYMENT OF ILLINOIS, EfDI/JtA, MICHIGAN, OHIO, A1ID WISCONSIN
1939 - 1^2
1939
1947
1954
Mfg. Bnpl.
jSn
Mfg. Enrol.
5S11
Mfg. Enrol.
State
(000)
(000)
(000)
Illinois
759.7
7.538
ll86:i
7.756
1222.4
7.580
Indiana
34o.6
3.378
548.3
3-584
587.3
• 3-642
Michigan
621.2
6.163
975.5
6.376
IO56.5
6.551
Ohio
735-3
7.295
1194.3
7.809
1292.6
8.015
Wisconsin
254.6
2.526
405.9
2.655
439.2
2.737
Total
2711.1*
26.901
4310.1
28.180
4598.0
28.525
1958
i960
1962
Mfg. Empi.
ft* .
Mfg. Enrol.
$N
Mfg. Empl.
State
(000)
(000)
(000)
Illinois
1186.8
7-40$
1208.8
7.227
1194.1
Indiana
550.9
3.437
588.0
3.515
596.7
Michigan
880.4
5.494
964.0.
5.763
936.6
Ohio
1196.1
7.1*64
1265.6
7.566
1222.6
Wisconsin
U38.6
2.737
465.8
2.784
469-7
Total
4252.8
26.538
4492.2
26.855
4419-7
$N = Percent of Nation
Source:
1939 Census of Manufactures; Census of !¦ Manufactures, Volume HI, Area Statistics, P 48-49
(for 1947 &nd 19?4); 195^ Census of Manufactures, Area Reports for Illinois, Indiana,
Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin; I960 Annual Survey of Manufactures, Part 3 - East North
Central Area Report. 1962 Annual Survey of Manufactures, Part 3 - East North Central
Area Report,
-------
TABLE 5-III. POPULATION OF ILLINOIS, EfDIAllA, MICHIGAN,
19UO - 1950
OHIO, AlID WISCONSIN
19UO 1950 I960
State
Population
(000)
Population
(000)
Population
(000)
Illinois
7897.2
5.977
8712.2
5.7^3
10081.2
5.621
Indiana
3^27.8
2.59b
393^*2
2.593
1^62.5
2.600
Michigan
5256.1
3.978
6371.8
1*.200
7823.2
U.362
Ohio
6907.6
5.228
79^6.6
5.239
9706.U
' 5-Ml
Wisconsin
3137.6
2.375
3^.6
2.26k
3951.8
2.203
Total 26626.3
20.152
30399.^
20.039
36225.1
20.197
$N o Percent of Nation's total population.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census population reports for years shovn.
-------
TABLE 6-III. TOTAL tIANUFAC TURING EMPLOYMEIIT Hi COJiTTIES OF DETROIT RIVER-
LAKE ERIE PROJECT AREA, 1939 - I960
1939
1947
1954.
Manufacturing Employment
Manufacturing Employment
Manufacturing Enrol oyir.ent
County-
Number
%A
Number
fA
¦joN
Number
ixa
Ma comb
4512
1.3U
.044
14843
2.63
.096
35120
6.42
.217
Monroe
4244
1.26
• 04l
6820
1.22
.044
.8655
1-59
.053
Oakland
16133
4.8o
.158
44566
7.90
.291
57624
10.54
.357
Wayne
311332
92.60
3.085
497832
88.25
3.257
310756
75.57
1.939
Total
336221
3.328
564061
3.688
412155
2.566
1958
I960
Manufacturing Employment
Manufacturing Employment
County
Number
£A
Number
%
Macomb
1j6757
11.37
.292
47570
10.77
.284
Monroe
6150
1.50
.038
5864
1.33
.035
Oakland
47522
11.56
.296
55959
12.67
.334
Wayne
310756
75.57
1-939
332433
75.23
1.987
411185
2.565
441826
2.640
$A = Percent
of Project
area
Source: U.S. Census of Manufactures for years shown, except i960, which is from U.S. Annual
Rurvpv o-f Mnniifnf+itvpR
-------
TABLE 7-HI. POPULATION OF COUNTIES 0? DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ERIE PROTECT AREA,
1910, 194o, 1950, 1960, 1980
(WITH PERCEIIT EjCREASE from preceding decade)
1910, 1940 . 1950
Persons Per Sq,
County
Mile, I960
Total
&
Total
i> Incr.
«Sa
Total
i> Incr.
iA
Macomb
843.7
32,606
5.Oil
107,638
39.5
4.42
184,961
71.8
5.98
Monroe
179.9
32,917
5.09
58,620
11.7
2. hi
75,666
29.1
. 2.45
Oakland
787.1
49,576
7.67
254,068
20.3
10. h3
396,001
55-9
12.81
Wayne
4,392.6
.531,591
82.20
2,015,623
6.7
82.74
2,435,235
20.8
78.76
Total
646,690
2,1*35,9^9
3,091,863
M
to
1
1 1
I960
"198O
rn ,
M
H county
Total
$ Incr.
fa
Total
i> Incr
w &
Macomb
405,804
119.4
10.50
800,000
48.61
l4.6l
Monroe
101,120
33.6
2.62
175,000
36.5
3.21
Oakland
690,529
74.3
17.87
1,200,000
36.9
21.91
Wayne
2,666,297
9-5
69.01
3,300,000
11.9
60.27
Total
3,863,750
5,475,000
(1) Average percent increase per decade since i960.
5&A = Percent of Project area.
Source: Populations for the years 1910 - I960, from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
1980 projections for Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, end l.'ayne Counties from'1970 and 19S0 Population
Projections," Detroit Metropolitan Area, Regional Planning Connission, Population and Housing
Committee, February 1963.
-------
growth have been in Oakland and Macomb Counties which together accounted for
more than a half-million increase between 1950 and I960. Between 1950 and
I960, the City of Detroit, which is in Wayne County, declined in population
from 1,81*9,568 to 1,670,1U*. At the same time, however, Wayne County in-
creased from 2,1±35,235 to 2,666,297.
In 19^0, Wayne County comprised 82.7 percent of the four-county study
areaj whereas in I960 it was 69 percent. On the other hand, the Macomb
County percent increased from h.U to 10.5 during the same period and Oakland
County increased from 10.U to 17.9 percent. Monroe County increased in per-
cent from 2.U to 2.6.
In 1980, the population of the Project area is expected to reach 5»5
million, representing an increase since I960 of hi.5 percent. Wayne County
^ill still be the largest county by far but its percent change in population
Ln the area will continue to show a decline. The Project area, although
?lowing down in its rate of growth, grew considerably more rapidly than the
fational rate between 19ii0 and 1950 and slightly more rapidly than the
fational rate between 1950 and I960.
Population of the four-county Project area as of April 1, 1963 is
distributed as follows: Macomb U73,000, Monroe 109,000, Oakland 735,000,
nd Wayne 2,672,000, for c. total of 3,989,000. Estimated population of
his area by the year 1980 is distributed as follows: Macomb 800,000,
onroe 175,000, Oakland 1,200,000, and Wayne 3,300,000, for a total of
,1*75,000. Figure 2-III graphically depicts population trends in the Pro-
ect area from the year 1910 to 1980.
13-111
-------
TABLE 8-III. SUMMAK5T OF POPULATION AIID MJtflUEACTURIKG GROWTH
TRENDS IN DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ERIE PROJECT AEEA
Year Population
19X0 61*6,690
19to 2,1*35,8 k9
1950 3,091,863
I960 3,863,750
1980 5,475, OOO
Year Value Added "by Total Manufacture *
1939 $2,630,000,000
191*7 $3,6i*o, 000,000
195U $5,181,000,000
1958 $^,381,000,000
i960 $5,731,000,030
1980 $12,000, 000, 000
Year Value Added "by Water-Using Industries *
19Vr .$717,000,000
1951* $1,01*9,000,000
1958 &L, 000,000,000
i960 21,298,000,000
1980 $3,23^,000,000
* In constant i960 dollars
-------
UNITED STATES
FIGURE 2 -m
MACOMB
/
/
<
\
/I
f
X
1910 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 O |g|0 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q, gQ ?Q QQ
OHIO
IN
DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ERIE PROJECT
POPULATION TRENDS
FOUR COUNTY PROJECT AREA
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, a WELFARE
PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE
REGION V GROSSE I L E, MICHIGAN
-------
Conclusions
1. It is predicted that between the period of i960 and 1930 total
manufacturing in the Project area will increase by 100 percent.
2. It is further.predicted that during this same period major water-
using industries in the Project area will increase by 150 percent.
3. The four-county Project area is estimated to increase in population
from 3.9 million in i960 to 5-5 million in 1980. This represents a bO
percent increase during this 20-year period.
U. The predicted rate of industrial growth is greater than the predicted
rate of population increase during the period 1960-80.
5. These predicted increases in population and industrial growth
indicate greater demands will be placed upon the water resources of the area,
particularly from the standpoint of water supply and waste discharge into the
Detroit River.
6. Unless effective pollution control is achieved through waste
treatment and/or more efficient water management, water quality in the
Detroit River and Lake Erie can be expected to deteriorate from existing
0
levels.
7. Appropriate water pollution control measures will be required if
the needs of the expanding populace and industrial development are to be
met and the water resources of the area protected.
15-III
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