1
EPA-400/9-78-002
COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING
FOR
AIR QUALITY CONTROL
January,1978
Final Report
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region VIII
Air and Hazardous Materials Division
Denver, Colorado 80203
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PIKES PEAK AREA COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
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Repository Material
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COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING FOR
AIR QUALITY CONTROL
Prepared by
Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments
Report Author: Julian Beaver
27 EAST VERMIJO
COLORADO SPRINGS. COLORADO 80903
PHONE (303)471-7080
EPA-400/9-78-002
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EPA CONTRACT No. 68-01-4178
Project Officers: David Kircher
Martha Burke
FINAL REPORT
Prepared for
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
REGION VIII
Air Planning and Operations Branch
Denver, Colorado 80203
January, 1978
$
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This air pollution report is issued by Region VIII of the Environ-
mental Protection Agency to assist State and local planning agen-
cies in carrying out their air quality planning activities. Copies
of this report may be obtained, for a nominal cost, from the National
Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield,
Virginia, 22151.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
the Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments, Colorado Springs, Colo-
rado in fulfillment of EPA Contract #68-01-4178. This report has
been reviewed by the Office of Air and Hazardous Materials, Region
VIII, EPA and approved for publication. Approval does not signify
that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the
Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade name or
commercial products consitutute endorsement or recommendation of
their use.
Region VIII, Publication No.400/9-78-002.
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA - 400/9-78-002
2.
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING FOR AIR QUALITY CONTROL
5. REPORT DATE
Januarvr 1978 fDate of Issue
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
JULIAN N. BEAVER
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
PIKES PEAK AREA COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
27 E. Vermijo Street
Colorado Springs, Colorado, 80903
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-01-4178
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Air and Hazardous Materials
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region VIII
1860 Lincoln Street
Denver, CO 80203
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
FTNAI.
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
This report is intended for use by planning agencies, regulatory organizations and
elected officials in approaching in a systematic way methods to analyze, control,
and plan for air quality. The report documents the relationship of air pollution
to the performance of city systems. It outlines a methodolody for evaluating the
air pollution impacts of growth and development, and it provides a framework for
incorporation air quality as a criterion in the comprehensive planning process,
Air pollution topics are discussed in the report according to the following format:
Chapter I: Health and welfare impacts of air pollution; legal and regulatory
framework for air quality planning
Chapter II: Methodology for integrating air quality criteria in the comprehensive
planning process
Chapter III:Description in greater detail of analysis and evaluation techniques
that are appropriate for considering air quality impacts of regional
development
Chapter IV: Consideration of specific air quality strategies in relation to plan-
ning and public investment decisions.
Chapter V Consideration in greater detail of social and economic issues associat-
and VI: ed with air quality control
Chapter VII Conclusion
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Air Pollution
Air Quality
Air Quality Planning
Air Quality Maintenance Planning
Regional Planning
Comprehensive Planning
Impacts of Air Quality Control
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited from NTIS
5285 Port Royal Road,
Springfield, Virginia, 22151
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Release Unlimited
21. NO. OF PAGES
141
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
Release Unlimited
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) previous edition is obsolete
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
FORWARD ..... 1
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 2
Health Effects 4
The Other Costs 4
Regulatory Framework ... 5
1970 Clean Air Act 6
Transportation Planning Guidelines . . iq
Section 208 of Federal Water Pollution
Control Act . . jq
HUD 701 Planning Program u
CHAPTER II COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING AND AIR QUALITY .... 13
Air Quality and Water Quality
Non-Point Pollution . jg
Point Sources of Pollution jg
Industrial Water Users . . jg
Power Plants 19
Air Quality and Energy 20
Transportation Planning and Air Quality .... 22
Air Pollution and Open Space Planning 27
Residential Planning 28
Design Considerations 29
Residential Location 30
Development Requirements 31
Advanced Technologies 32
CHAPTER III AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS 35
Policy Inputs 35
The Model Set 36
Transportation System Models 37
Air Quality Models 39
Dispersion Models 41
Emission Inventory Requirements 42
Model Use . . . 44
Plan Analysis 44
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Page
CHAPTER IV AIR QUALITY CONTROL STRATEGIES 51
CHAPTER V EVALUATION OF SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES 61
Social Issues 61
Multiple Benefits • ¦ 66
Equity Issues 66
Public Opinion Assessment 67
CHAPTER VI EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES 69
Cost*Benefit Matrix 69
Growth Issues 74
Geographic Incidence of Controls 76
Income Group Incidence of Control Costs .... 77
Fiscal Inputs of Air Quality Control 77
Other Private Sector Costs 77
Land Use Costs . 79
Conclusion . 80
CHAPTER VII IMPLEMENTATION 81
Organizational Requirements . 83
Conclusion 89
CHAPTER VIII CONCLUSION . . . 90
APPENDIX A GLOSSARY 92
APPENDIX B POLLUTION INDEX 102
APPENDIX C COLORADO SPRINGS SUMMARY . 105
APPENDIX D REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF GRADING ORDINANCE. . 113
APPENDIX E FOOTNOTES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 134
Air Quality Modeling 138
Comprehensive Planning and Air Quality Control . 139
Regional Impact Analysis . . 140
Urban Systems Management 141
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FIGURES AND TABLES
Page
FIGURE 1 Comprehensive Regional Planning Process .... 15
FIGURE 2 Gaussian Dispersion of Pollutants from an
Infinite Line Source Under Crosswind
Conditions 43
FIGURE 3 Gaussian Dispersion of Pollutants from a Point
Source Under Parallel Wind Conditions .... 43
FIGURE 4 Description of Urban Forms and Transportation
Simulation Study 45
FIGURE 5 Annual Average Concentration - TSP 48
FIGURE 6 Cumulative Distribution of Pollution Index . . 49
FIGURE 7 Suspended Particulate Concentrations 108
FIGURE 8 Percent Developed 1973 . Ill
FIGURE 9 Percent Developed 2000 112
FIGURE 10 General Soil Map, Western El Paso County. . . . 115
FIGURE 11 Environmental Diseases and Pop. Growth in EPC . 131
TABLE 1 Summary of Air Quality Projections 47
TABLE 2 Strategies for Air Pollution Control 53,54
TABLE 3 Regional Impact Analysis 56,57,5C 5 59
TABLE 4 Social Impact Assessment 62
TABLE 5 Cost Benefit Determination 71, 72
TABLE 6 Cost Incidence 73
TABLE 7 Economic Impact Assessment 75
TABLE 8 Federal and State Air Pollution Standards ... 101
TABLE 9 Ambient Annual Average Standards 102
TABLE 10 Population and Size Comparisons of United
States Cities 106
TABLE 11 Average Factor C Values for Various Surface
Stabilization Treatments. . . 120
TABLE 12 Effectiveness of Ground Cover on Erosion Loss at
Construction Sites 120
TABLE 13 Promising Control-System and Effectiveness . . 121
TABLE 14 Runoff Curve Numbers for Selected Agricultural
Suburban, and Urban Land Use 124
TABLE 15 Runoff Depth in Inches for Selected CN's and
Rainfall Amounts. 125
TABLE 16 Erosion Control Measures Accompanying Grading
and Their Costs 128
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FOREWORD
This report is intended to be of use to planning agencies,,
regulatory organizations, and elected officials in approaching
in a systematic way methods to analyze, control, and plan for
air quality. A proper style is difficult to achieve in such
an endeavor. Elected officials, at least some of them, still
want to know why we need planning and feel that most planners
are a kind of bureaucratic trumpet propelled by hot air and
good intentions. The regulatory agencies have long since
recognized the need for controlling the environment and are
impatient with the wavering steps of local communities to get
about the business at hand. Other planning agencies want the
kind of technical information that will allow them to analyze
air pollution problems in a timely and cost efficient manner.
A report aimed at all of these actors may consequently appear
naive to one, obtuse to another, and plodding to a third. The
authors, therefore, apologize at the outset for these unfortunate
consequences and will rely on the good judgement of the reader in
being able to cut through the parts that are superfluous to him
and to focus on the matters that are of most importance.
For those who are least familiar or most confused with air quality
issues, Appendix A is included as a glossary of acronyms, terms,
and concepts that apply to air quality planning. This glossary
defines terms not otherwise identified in this report and includes
additional terms one is likely to encounter in related readings.
A brief review of the glossary might be the first step in reading
this report, therefore.
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INTRODUCTION
Air pollution problems can be directly related to the performance
of urban systems - energy systems, transportation systems, and
land use systems. More specifically, pollution problems can be
related to inefficiency in energy use, to the location and density
of urban activities, and to the management of land resources.
This report will document the relationship of air pollution to
the performance of city systems. It will outline a methodology
for evaluating the air pollution impacts of growth and development,
and it will provide a framework for incorporating air quality as
a criterion in the comprehensive planning process. The intent of
any comprehensive planning program is to balance the operational
and service requirements of urban systems with the overall
community goals of fiscal efficiency, social acceptability, and
environmental protection. That is, it is intended to describe
how the urban area can best grow and develop given the restraints
imposed upon it by technology, cost, social needs, and the limits
of natural systems to support and sustain human activities.
Air pollution is one of the most pernicious and dangerous
consequences of uncontrolled urban development. It is particularly
appropriate, therefore, that it be an explicit criterion in the
comprehensive planning process and that every attempt be made
to describe and pursue development alternatives that will work
to mitigate the pollution impacts of development.
This report will describe the framework for analyzing the
pollution impacts of urban activities, and for evaluating the
system impacts of air pollution control. The common thread in
such a process, as with comprehensive planning generally, is
the development of land use and population projections - that is,
some description of the expected density and extent of urban
activities and some notion of the rate at which change is
expected. This basic information is used to describe the require-
ments for transportation facilities, sewerage systems, water
systems, and the other facilities needed to support development.
Each of these facilities has costs associated with it, and these
costs can be calculated in order to assess the feasibility of
supporting the expected development. Air pollution must also be
considered as one of the costs of development and can be evaluated
using planning and modeling tools.
The following chapters will document the process briefly outlined
here. The remainder of the introduction will describe in more
detail the health and welfare impacts of air pollution - those
facts that provide the basic rationale for controlling pollution.
The introduction will also outline the legal and regulatory
history of air pollution control. This information is of basic
importance, since it outlines to a substantial degree the
responsibility of public agencies in planning for air pollution
control.
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Chapter II will describe the integration of air quality criteria
in the comprehensive planning process. Since air pollution is
intimately tied to the performance of a number of city systems,
planning for air quality is essentially a matter of constructing
a data system that will reflect the impact of urban systems and
a decision making framework that will allow the necessary alterations
in plans for meeting air quality standards. Particular emphasis
will be placed on the coordination of air quality criteria with
two of the systems that from a public policy point of view are
critical in the shaping and the management of urban development;
these are transportation and waste water systems.
Chapter III will consider the assessment of air quality impacts
related to other comprehensive planning elements. This Chapter
focuses in greater detail on the analysis and evaluation techniques
available through the comprehensive planning process that serve
as inputs for air quality analyses; it also includes a description
of those additional tools that will be necessary to properly
evaluate the air quality impacts associated with regional
development.
Chapter IV will consider the assessment of particular air quality
strategies as they relate to planning and public investment
decisions. That is, one may characteristically find that there
is not sufficient flexibility in the design of future land use
and population systems to allow the attainment of air quality
standards. In this case, more specific air quality control
measures must be applied to address the problem. In almost all
cases, these measures will have a discernable impact on the
functioning of the region and will imply certain social and
economic costs in the implementation of these measures. Chapter
IV will outline a framework for evaluating these impacts and
will suggest criteria for measuring their effects.
Chapter V and VI will deal in greater detail with the issues
associated with two of the most difficult analysis areas:
social and economic costs. These Chapters will also outline in
greater detail methodologies for assessing these costs as they
relate to air quality control strategies.
Chapter VII will discuss the implementation phase of the
comprehensive planning program. Because air quality is more
than a local jurisdictional issue and relates to a large number
of planning and operating agencies, the management or implementation
requirements of air quality control will be much more rigorous
than for most functional areas. Chapter VII will review some of
these requirements and offer some general suggestions as to how
these requirements can best be met.
Chapter VIII offers the summary and conclusions of the report and
will hopefully outline those facts and findings that are most
important for other agencies in developing a comprehensive
planning program consistent with air quality criteria.
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Health Effects
The first task in a comprehensive view of air quality is to
review the rationale that lend to the development of air quality
standards and the development of a systematic program to control
air pollution.
A compelling argument for such a program does exist. In the most
basic terms, the control of air pollution is linked directly to
the protection of public health, property, and plant life. Air
pollutants are known to be very pernicious chemicals, and animal
studies have shown them to include both carcinogenic (cancer
producing) and mutagenic (producing genetic damage or birth
defects) compounds. Even in minute amounts, these chemicals can
have long term effects on human health. Other pollutants have
been linked to respiratory and arteo-vascular diseases. Carbon
monoxide, by replacing oxygen in the blood's hemoglobin, places
an additional burden on the circulatory system and causes heart
strain and the aggravation of existing heart problems. Air
pollution may also contribute to respiratory diseases such as
emphysema and chronic bronchitis. Another aspect of the health
problem is the extent to which exposure to pollution increases
the body's susceptibility to other diseases, normally considered
unrelated to air pollution. For example, the average human inhales
millions of bacteria everyday. Most of them are harmless or can
be warded off by the body's defensive mechanisms. But persons
already debilitated by air pollution may have a harder time
fighting infection, viruses, and even the common cold. A
further description of air pollutants and their effects is
provided in Appendix A.
The Other Costs
A number of research groups have attempted to put a price on the
damage done by air pollution. While most of the costs can not
be measured in dollars or are hidden by a number of other factors,
these cost analyses do provide some perspective of the burden
imposed by air pollution. The President's Council on Environmental
Quality, for example, recently reported that the outlays by
government and private industry for pollution control would
total approximately $16 billion for 1975. They also estimated,
however, that the damage to people, property, and vegetation
would total from 2.5 to 4 times this amount.
These data also serve to counterbalance the argument that pollution
is the price of "progress", or an inevitable concomitant of
economic growth. Walter Heller, former Chairman of the Council
of Economic Advisors, argues that the annual increase in our
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National output is overestimated unless the losses from
pollution of the environment are recognized as a debit item
on the Nation's account books.1
Other losses, though difficult to quantify, are no less tangible.
Ponderosa pine stands in the Angeles and San Bernardino National
Forests are quickly dying as a result of smog carried 60 miles
from Los Angeles. Recent research in the Adirondack Mountains
suggests that fish losses in otherwise pristine lakes can be
accounted for by increases in water acidity produced by "acid
rains" floating downwind from industrial centers such as Buffalo,
Rochester, and Syracuse, New York.
In summary, people generally under-evaluate the danger of
"tasteless, odorless, and colorless" gases that have accompanied
growth in this Nation. And certainly few episodes are as dramatic
as the eight day inversion in 1948 in Donora, Pennsylvania that
caused a 400 percent increase in mortality rates or the four day
London "fog" of 1952 that caused 4,000 excess deaths. However,
it is eminently clear that air pollution is more than an
inconvenience and far more dangerous than a simple combination
of smoke and fog. It is a serious problem that should and can
be controlled.
Regulatory Framework
The legislative history of Federal involvement in air pollution
covers a period of over 20 years. From 1955 to 1970, the agency
responsible for carrying out the laws passed by Congress was the
Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW). During this
period, air pollution was essentially controlled through the
development of standards which could be met by existing technology.
1970 marked a fundamental change in Congressional policy towards
pollution control. Congress adopted through the 1970 amendments
to the Clean Air Act a policy which forced technology to catch up
with air quality standards. EPA also became the implementing
administration in 1970 with broad authority to set maximum
pollution levels and to develop enforcement procedures. Congress,
in fact, charged EPA with the mission of attaining clean air to
the degree necessary to protect the public health and welfare.
Authority for implementing and enforcing the provisions of the
Clean Air Act was left with the States and local governments.
However, if they do not accept or fulfill this authority, Federal
intervention is mandatory.
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1970 Clean Air Act
There are essentially three programs developed in the 1970 Clean
Air Act to achieve clean air standards. Section 110 calls for
States to formulate Implementation Plans for each air quality
control region with the States. These implementation plans
describe in detail how National Ambient Air Quality Standards
are to be achieved and maintained. The second major provision
for achieving National standards is found in Section 111,
requiring the EPA to develop New Source Standards for stationary
pollution sources. These performance standards set limits on the
amount of pollution that certain kinds of stationary sources can
emit, and they are to be set at levels requiring the use of the
best system of emission controls, taking into account the cost of
the system. Each State is required to submit to the EPA
Administrator a procedure for implementing and enforcing standards
for new source performance. The third major program of the Act
is embodied in Section 202 which requires the EPA Administrator
to prescribe Emission Standards for Moving Sources. Section 202
calls for a 90 percent reduction (over the 1970/71 level) in the
emissions of hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide
originating from light duty cars and trucks. This reduction has
been translated into a set of emission standards for new motor
vehicles.
These provisions of the 1970 amendments to the Clean Air Act still
constitute the fundamental basis for current clean air programs.
The Act, however, has been implemented through a set of
administrative regulations and these have been modified, in turn,
through a number of court cases. One of the most important of
these legal actions and the one that sets the framework for
advanced or comprehensive planning in the control of air pollution
is the case of National Resources Defense Council vs. Environmental
Protection Agency heard before the U. S. Circuit Court of Appeals
for the District of Columbia.
In this case, the EPA Administrator's approval of implementation
plans for the achievement of air quality standards was challenged
on several grounds, including the contention that the plans
approved were not adequate to ensure maintenance of the National
ambient air quality standards once such standards were attained.
The court ruled in favor of the National Resources Defense Council
and required the Administrator to review all State implementation
plans. The Administrator was required to disapprove all plans
that did not contain measures to ensure maintenance of the
primary standards after the statutory attainment date, or that
did not analyze maintenance in a manner consistent with EPA
regulations.
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Consequently, the EPA Administrator determined that no State plan
contained' all the measures necessary to ensure maintenance of the
standards. I In addition, no plan had adequately analyzed the
impacjf of future growth on air quality for any significant period
of tilne. /On March 9, 1973, the Administrator disapproved all
StaJ>4 plans with respect to maintenance of standards. As a
result of the public hearings and the development of these
regulations, the Administrator determined that a comprehensive
growth analysis should be specifically required of the States
/in order to make maintenance provisions and implementation
plans fully acceptable.
Though the assignment of these planning tasks has been placed
with States, regional level organization is perhaps the most
consistent and logical choice for such an effort. In Colorado,
the voluntary participation of local governments in Councils
of Governments allows for the coordination of comprehensive
planning among local jurisdictions and provides for the direct
participation of elected officials in the design of policies
and programs. In addition, it is the organizational unit
designated for management of the transportation planning program
by the Department of Transportation and for the water quality
planning program by the EPA; consistency among programs, it
would seem, could best be realized by using the same geographic
and organizational framework for air quality planning.
Recent guidelines published by EPA for the preparation of air
quality maintenance plans ^ allow the Governor to designate the
agency responsible for plan preparation. In so doing, the EPA
recognizes the relevance of regional organizations to such
planning problems and anticipated the provisions of the 1977
Clean Air Act amendments which encourage greater responsibility
for regional organizations in air quality planning.
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977
On August 7, 1977, the President signed the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977 (Public Law 95-95). These amendments repre-
sent the most extensive modification to the Act since its initial
passage and set forth both new policies and new implementation
strategies for attaining air quality standards.
The planning requirements for regions that exceed any national
air pollutant standard (non-attainment areas) are dealt with in
Part D of the Amendments. Major planning, implementation, and
enforcement responsibilities are to be jointly determined by the
State and elected officials of affected local governments. Where
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feasible, responsibility for the control strategies shall be
assigned (by the Governor after consultation with local elected
officials) to the metropolitan planning organization for trans-
portation. In cases where the national primary air quality
standards for photochemical oxidants or carbon monoxide have not
been met, a revised transportation control plan must be formulated
and implemented to attain primary standards by December 31, 1982.
Exceptions may be granted to this date if the State demonstrates
to the EPA Administrator that standards will not be met despite
the implementation of all reasonably available control measures.
In such cases, the period for compliance can be extended to De-
cember 31, 1987 where other measures necessary to provide for
attainment have been identified.
plan provisions of the revised State Implementation Plan
include:
incorporation of all reasonably available control
measures to be implemented as expeditiously as possible
• identification and commitment of the financial and
manpower resources necessary to carry out the plan
provisions
inclusion of written evidence that legally enforceable
documents have been adopted specifying the requirements,
schedules, and time tables necessary for compliance
• progress toward reduction in emissions from existing
sources through application of reasonably available con-
trol technology
documentation of public, local government, and state
legislative involvement and consultation in the planning
process
permits for construction and operation of new and modi-
fied stationary sources and the appropriate emission
limitations.
In addition to these latter requirements for the operation of
stationary sources, Section 173 also makes law the emission
offset policy. This policy requires that new facilities may only
locate in non-attainment areas if the allowable emissions from
the new source are more than offset by reductions in emissions
from existing sources and other new sources. (See "emission
offset policy" in Appendix A for additional detail.)
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Additional transportation planning guidelines are to be provided
through directives listed in Section 108 of the Amendments. These
guidelines will define in more precise terms the relationship of
transportation planning to air quality planning. In summary, the
guidelines call for transportation planning to consider not only
efficiency, safety, cost-effectiveness and other system measures,
but must include a program of transportation projects and system
management measures that will provide for reduction in trans-
portation system pollution emissions. This planning work must be
comprehensive in scope and include the investigation of all
appropriate alternatives for attaining air quality Standards
and must describe the health, welfare, economic, energy, and
social effects of the plan provisions.
Section 176 of the Amendments adds further weight to these pro-
visions by specifying that the metropolitan planning organization
shall not approve any plan, project, or program, other than for
safety, mass transit, or specific air quality improvement proj-
ects, which does not conform to the provisions of the State
Implementation Plan.
Subsection (d) of Section 176 further specifies that federal
agencies shall give priority, consistent with statutory require-
ments, for the allocation of funds to implement portions of the
revised State Implementation Plan. This subparagraph partic-
ularly addresses the programs of the Urban Mass Transit Adminis-
tration and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Section 316 of the Act explicitly addresses the relationship of
air quality planning to the construction of sewage treatment
facilities where such treatment works are not consistent with
achieving air quality standards. The EPA Administrator is
authorized to withhold, condition, or restrict the making of
grants for sewage treatment facilities if such facilities would
result directly or indirectly in increased emissions not provided
for in the State Implementation Plan (SIP).
Other provisions of the Act may also be of interest to compre-
hensive planning organizations, though they do not fit in a
particular planning category. Section 118, for example, is
particularly important for those regions where federal facilities
are significant employment and pollution generators. The Act
states unequivocally that federal facilities shall comply with
federal, state, and local requirements for the control of air
pollution to the same extent as any nongovernmental entity.
Other funding, planning, and implementation provisions are better
understood by investigating the particular language of the Act,
particularly Part D. This summary does provide, however, a gen-
eral overview of the additional responsibilities, sanctions, and
coordination tasks required by local governments and metropolitan
planning organizations.
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Transportation Planning Guidelines
The 1970 Federal Aid Highway Act added Section 109 (j) to Title
23 of the United States Code which directed the Department of
Transportation to develop and promulgate guidelines to assure
that highways constructed with Federal funds are consistent with
plans for the implementation of air quality standards. In 1974,
the Federal Highway Administration published final regulations
setting forth the procedures for establishing such consistency.
The regulations require annual determinations by the policy
board of the Metropolitan Planning Organization that the trans-
portation plans and programs of the agencies are consistent with
air quality criteria. These procedures thus act to establish a
critical link between air quality maintenance and transportation
planning and require a yearly evaluation to ensure that compre-
hensive planning is in fact taking place.
Section 208 of Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments
of 1972 establishes a process for areawide waste treatment
management planning. This process gives the EPA, the individual
States, and local governments a planning tool which allows them
to plan how they can best meet National water quality goals. In
October, 1975, Program Guidance Memorandum AM-14 was sent to
Water Program Directors; this document sets forth procedures that
are to be required as part of the 208 planning grant program for
the coordination of air quality maintenance planning and waste
treatment management planning. As part of the reporting procedure,
the planning agency responsible for each subject area must ensure
that consistent data and projections are being used, that control
strategies do not conflict, and that the programming of infra-
structure (roads, interceptors, treatment facilities) will not
result in violations of standards for either air or water quality.
As a further "encouragement" to ensure consistency between water
quality plans and air quality plans, EPA Revised Program Guidance
Memorandum: SAM-8 (November 15, 1976) specifies that EPA will
not approve water and air quality plans which are in conflict.
Specifically, plans will not be approved which have conflicting
projections, conflicting control strategies, or allow for
construction of infrastructure (roads, interceptors, treatment
facilities) which would result in standards violations in either
medium. An approved water quality management plan in turn, is a
pre-requisite for EPA participation in the funding of wastewater
treatment facilities.
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In addition to the review requirements, Guidance Memorandum SAM-8
outlines a methodology for coordinating the 208 program with air
quality planning activities. The EPA also provides that 208
program funds may be appropriated for assessing the air quality
impact of the development scheduled through the water quality
planning process. Examples of coordination activities eligible
for 208 funds include development of:
- ' Common data bases
- Common public participation programs
- Common plan adoption and revision procedures
- Common institutional mechanisms for plan adoption,
implementation, and revision
- Control strategies or measures that will achieve the
objectives of both air and water quality programs
- Statutes, regulations, or administrative procedures
relating air, water, and land use
- Common impact assessment methods, procedures, and
criteria
- Air quality assessments of existing or projected
development to be served by wastewater treatment
facilities
- Strategies for mitigating any adverse air quality
effects from water quality management plans
Detailed questions regarding the tests to be performed and the
apportioning of costs should be addressed to the EPA Regional
Administrators at the time the work program or work program
amendments are made. Because of the variability of air and
water quality problems and the differences in data and funding
availability, no single formula exists for defining the scope of
the air quality analyses to be included as part of the 208
planning process.
HUD 701 Planning Program
Local agencies that draw up community development plans to comply
with the Department of Housing and Urban Development's comprehen-
sive planning assistance program must allow local air quality
agencies to review the plans for consistency with the State
Implementation Plan (SIP), according to an agreement signed by
EPA and HUD. The interagency agreement also specifies that
local community development agencies are to review air quality
implementation plans for consistency with the land use provisions
of the area's comprehensive plan. Section 701 of the Housing Act
of 1954 specifies that applicants for comprehensive planning
assistance from HUD must include land use and housing elements in
their plans.
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Before recipients may qualify for continued comprehensive planning
assistance, they must include those land use measures identified
as necessary for attaining and maintaining air quality standards.
The agreement also specifies that comprehensive plans must reflect
any land use provisions necessary for the prevention of signifi-
cant deterioration of air quality. This interagency agreement
is now reflected in HUD's regulations for review and approval of
701 plans (24 CFR 600).
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COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING AND AIR QUALITY
Planning for the attainment and maintenance of air quality-
standards is not an isolated planning problem. Air quality is
intimately tied to the performance of other urban systems,
particularly land use and transportation. Air pollution
can be directly related to the use of fuels or energy in
urban areas. Because of the closely associated links within
energy systems, transportations systems, and land use activities,
coordination of air quality considerations in the planning process
is a necessity if there is a realistic hope to maintain strict
ambient standards for air quality. Since the planning process is
prescriptive rather than remedial in its application, it also offers
the best hope of designing urban systems with a minimum of cost
and disruption. Infrastructure such as highway systems and sewer
systems would be prohibitively expensive to replace or relocate.
Once such systems are in place, the only alternatives for air
quality control will consist of more disruptive changes in the
way cars are used, in the way people travel to work, in the costs
we pay for urban services, and in the amounts and kinds of fuel
we are allowed to use. Many urban areas are already faced with
these alternatives. A comprehensively designed planning program,
however, offers the potential to minimize the disruption involved
in meeting environmental standards by careful attention to the
location, density, and timing of urban development and through
the provisions of urban services that carefully match the
environmental constraints that accompany urban development. In
its proper context, air quality planning can be viewed not as
another attempt to impose a set of constraints on local decision
making, but rather an opportunity to achieve, consistent with
other planning goals, a quality of life standard that will ensure
the long term economic and physical viability of our cities.
In a region that approaches or exceeds National air quality
standards, there will inevitably be a weighing of land use
alternatives and tradeoffs will be made among development objectives.
There will almost certainly be conflicts and many of these will
not be resolved in a optimum or universally acceptable fashion.
Downtown urban renewal, for example, represents one of the most
commonly applied tools for central city revitalization and may
offer the only hope of creating a solid tax base and community
focus for a city* The central business district (CBD), however,
is characteristically the area within a region with the greatest
density of autos and people and is the area most likely to
regularly exceed pollution standards.
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Outlying areas create their own set of problems. Because they
have been more recently developed, they are generally auto
oriented with low density development and a massive transportation
grid to accommodate this development. These areas are also the
ones experiencing greatest pressures for growth and place the
greatest demand on government for new schools, new sewer and
drainage systems, and new roads. Because of their overwhelming
auto orientation* the strip commercial zoning, the long distance
commuting, and other features, these areas are also particularly
suited for the creation of corridors that will regularly exceed
pollution limits. Facilities that are most demanded within the
urban area, therefore, may form the land use pattern that is
particuarly conducive to air pollution problems once these areas
are fully developed.
The first step in outlining a comprehensive planning process to
address these problems is to define what we mean by the process.
While every reader knows what comprehensive planning is, there
may not be universal agreement among individuals. This is
particularly the casefwhen current practices in planning are
constantly changing., One finds for example, that the concept of
a comprehensive plan as a multi-colored map with clearly defined uses
assigned to specific geographic areas is being supplanted more
recently with the concept of development policy sets or impact
criteria which define the appropriate criteria for development
rather than attempt to define the place for each kind of
development.
For the purpose of this report, then, comprehensive planning
includes the following features: it is regional in scope and
deals with regional labor and employment markets, regional
transportation systems, regional population growth, and with
environmental problems that like air quality are regional in
scope. The basic process is the projection of alternative land
use, employment, and population information for zones within the
metropolitan areas; these forecasts define to a substantial
degree the land use future expected for the region and provide
the basis for calculating the infrastructure and urban system
requirements for accommodating regional development. Once
resources are matched with growth forecasts through a set of
functional plans, a management framework is designed which
outlines the policies that will lead to the appropriate future.
This plan is therefore at a different scale from functional
plans which investigate in detail the development of a particular
sector or service, e.g., open space systems, waste water treatment
systems"; functional plans are important, thereforej in specifying how
regional resources are to be used. The comprehensive plan is
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FIGURE 1
COMPREHENSIVE REGIONAL PLANNING PROCESS
POLICY MODEL SET PLAN PLAN
INPUTS DATA BASE DATA MANIPULATION OUTPUT ANALYSIS FORMULATION IMPLEMENTATION
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more general that local plans which outline the specific
requirements for local growth. Its primary focus is the
development and consideration of alternative patterns of urban
activities at a regional scale. Figure 1 outlines in schematic
form the major features of the regional comprehensive planning
process.
The following sections will provide a general overview of the
comprehensive planning elements that interface most directly with
air quality issues. By describing the most important relationships,
it is hoped that this chapter will provide for a systematic
integration of air quality with other planning elements and
provide examples of the problems and opportunities that can most
likely be expected in the planning process.
Air Quality and Water Quality
Attempts to maximize one environmental goal may serve to
maximize other environmental goals. This is often the
case with air and water quality programs. One also finds
a number of special cases where air and water quality goals
cannot be reached simultaneously. This section will provide
an overview of those opportunities that exist for extracting
from water quality programs elements of benefit to air quality
and will describe those special situations where conflicting
goals may arise.
The analysis of water pollution problems is most commonly
divided into two subject areas: point sources of pollution
and non-point sources of pollution. Point sources of pollution
are associated with discharges from factories, municipalities,
large agricultural operations, and other users that discharge
waste water through an outfall pipe, sewer, or other conduit.
Non-point sources of pollution involve the diffuse sources of
pollution that occur in the form of runoff, seepage, and
percolation; these sources most commonly occur as part of
agriculture, mining, construction, and as a concomitant of
urban development in the form of storm runoff, septic tank
seepage, pest control programs, solid waste landfills, etc.
These subareas with water quality planning serve as a useful
framework for the analysis of air quality relationships, since
the link between the two varies considerably depending on
whether one is talking about point or non-point pollution.
Non-Point Pollution
Within urban areas, runoff from street surfaces is generally
highly contaminated and is similar in many respects to sanitary
sewage. Since most municipal systems are not designed to
treat the amount of runoff generated in the first hours of a
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moderate to heavy storm, control measures designed to reduce
and divert runoff is extremely important for water quality
control. Efforts to control runoff may vary considerably,
however, depending on differences in land use, climate,
topography, soil type, vegetation cover, distribution of
precipitation, variability of precipitation occurrences,
nutrient addition to soil, animal and human population densities,
etc.
Particularly in the semi-arid west control of erosion,
construction activities, and the use of undeveloped land is
extremely important in order to minimize the amounts of soil
that enter the air or water supplies as pollutants. Though no
attempt has been made to specify the correlation, a great number
of the programs intended to stabilize soils for water pollution
control would have approximately the same magnitude of effectiveness
in controlling air pollution by reducing fugitive dust. Source
abatement strategies that focus on vegetative cover on open lands,
grassed waterways for conveyance of runoff, and detention plans
to control the greater erosion potential of urbanized lands are
examples of water pollution strategies that have particular
relevance to air quality control.
In addition to source abatement, there are a number of technical
abatement alternatives that have applicability to air pollution
control. Municipal street cleaning, for example, is one
program of contaminant removal that may constitute an important
element of both air and water quality control. Again, this
kind of program has special relevance in the west where wind-
blown dust may cover streets in the windy months and where
street sanding is used extensively during storm periods in
winter months. This pollution, if it does not enter the water
regime as an additional sediment load, will almost certainly
enter the air as cars pulverize and disperse the sands.
Control strategies do not always mesh, however, and there may
be serious reservations to particular pollution control programs
for non-point sources. Detention ponds, sediment basins, and
other kinds of diversion structures are a viable and relatively
inexpensive means of controlling non-point sources. However,
as sediments accumulate, such structures could easily become
dust bowls and in the arid western states would be a constant
source of fugitive dust.
In summary, one can expect water quality planning programs to
generate a large amount of information relative to non-point
sources of pollution that would be valuable for air quality
planning. Such material must be reviewed with a critical eye,
however, to minimize the use of those strategies which may
exacerbate air pollution problems.
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Point Sources of Pollution
The relation of point source control to air quality is provided
through the land use element of the planning program. Of most
importance is the relation of future development patterns to
the cost and technical criteria for controlling water and air
quality. In general, one finds that the cost of municipal
treatment systems can be minimized by encouraging a continuous
development pattern, increasing building densities, allowing
for cluster development, and by similar strategies which tend
to reduce the size and extent of the sewerage collection network.
There also exist economies of scale in the construction of waste
treatment plans that would encourage the development of existing
metropolitan areas over more isolated satellite development. These
general guidelines do not conflict with air quality strategies as
long as considerations dealing with very high density areas or
pollution "hot spots" are taken into account.
Other land use related information generated through water quality
management programs can be applied to an analysis of air quality
problems. The legal framework for land use decisions directed to
water pollution problems applies to a substantial degree to air
quality problems. ^ Organizational and institutional arrangements
selected for water quality management might also apply to air
quality maintenance. When one takes into account the fact that
air basins often correspond roughly to water basins, there is a
certain logic to creating a parallel or integrated structure.
This coordination is particularly important in the planning
stages of air and water quality programs and has been reflected
in the encouragement on the part of EPA to assign responsibility
for 208 planning and air quality planning to the same regional
organization where such an arrangement is possible. A closer
look at management strategies for air quality may also demonstrate
that there is sufficient logic to create a regional control
organization that would be responsible for both air and water
quality maintenance.
Industrial Water Users
Industries may be significant generators of point-source pollution.
One can also visualize cases where management programs that would
be most cost-effective for industrial waste water control may
place a severe burden on air quality. This would seem to be
particularly the case where pre-treatment of industrial wastes
are required. If there are economies of scale to be realized by
locating several industries with easy access to a pre-treatment
plant, there would be a greater likelihood that these industries
would cause air quality standards to be violated. Depending on
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the type of industries, therefore, special consideration must be
given to those cases where pre-treatment plants are to be built.
These considerations would include the types of industrial processes
involved, their contribution to air pollution, the location of the
industrial site in relation to existing air quality problems in
the basin, and the adaptability of proposed industries to greater
pollution controls.
Power Plants
Electrical power plants represent a special case where air and
water quality relationships can be complex. Thermo-electric
plants use large amounts of water for cooling; they will
increasingly depend on coal as a fuel; and in addition to
problems of air and water pollution, they contribute fly ash
and other products which pose solid waste disposal problems.
They indirectly contribute to another set of environmental
problems related to the extraction of coal, the mining of
limestone for sulfur dioxide controls, and the shift to other
resources as a means of reducing the consumers' utility costs.
These relationships as they apply to the expansion of electrical
generating facilities within a region are very difficult to
assess and would constitute a major research effort for any
agency that wished to evaluate systematically the environmental
impact of power facilities. However, a number of these issues
can at least be outlined in order to provide some structure
for managing air quality and related problems.
Since power plants use large amounts of water, they are
characteristically located along major drainage channels. The
location of power plants along the bottom of the water basin
may also be advantageous since these channels often are the
major axis for rail and highway systems in the Region. New
plants, of course, will be increasingly dependent on rail
lines for the delivery of coal.
From an air quality point of view, the location of major sources
of air pollution at the bottom of the water basin is an unfortunate
decision. During inversion periods, topography and meteorology
combine to create a canyon or box effect that traps pollutants
and results in violations of standards within a very short period
of time - typically during a rush hour period. The problem of
topography and drainage may be compounded where prevalent winds
parallel the direction of the drainage. Pollutants tend to wash
back and forth along the valley, further complicating the
parobilem. When regional wind patterns are synchronized with
micro-climate features related to the daily canyon cycle of
falling, night time cool air and rising, day time warm air,
violations of air quality standards are also likely to be the
case.
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Other environmental conflicts can also be cited. Coal piled for
storage is often sprayed with chemicals in order to mitigate
dust problems. Depending on the chemicals used, such applications
may wash off and cause water pollution problems. Fly ash taken
from the plant may be stabilized in land fill sites using water.
This increases the probability of leaching and may contribute to
ground water pollution. Water from a plant's cooling towers may
be released to adjacent streams, resulting in both thermal and
chemical pollution of the water.
Obviously these observations offer little guidance in terms of
managing water and air resources jointly within a region. They
do, however, point out the importance of site selection in planning
utility expansions; the relation of air quality control equipment
to other environmental resources; and the importance of topographical,
meterological, and other resource information in making decisions
regarding energy development. These considerations would hopefully
form the basic elements of a framework designed to evaluate
regional alternatives for resource and power development.
Air Quality and Energy
Except for fugitive dust, air pollution is almost always a
consequence or by-product of the use of energy. In fact, the
most immediate hazard to human health from the use of energy is
air pollution. The way energy is used and the rate at which it
is consumed, therefore, form a critical part of our consideration
of ways to conserve air resources.
Energy use, of course, is becoming an increasingly important
issue for a number of other reasons. Our consumption of all
forms of energy is rapidly increasing at a time when our control
of such resources is increasingly relegated to foreign countries
and international corporations. As a result, we are increasingly
vulnerable to inflation, oil cutoffs, and strained relations
with other nations.
From a policy point of view, the direction to date has been to
increase the supply of energy resources from within the country.
"Project Independence" has been the most noteworthy formulation
of policy in this regard in recent years. There remain, however,
a number of unresolved issues with respect to this policy that
suggest it may be unwise to pursue such a single minded policy
too enthusiatically. Problems of environmental protection,
technological feasibility, capital availability, safety, theft or
diversion of dangerous materials, and the adequacy of institutions
are ones that pose major problems in generating a rapid transition
to developing greater domestic supplies of energy.
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These problems suggest that not only will the country need to
pursue a balanced energy development program that would, for
example, encourage research in solar energy at perhaps roughly
the scale now dedicated to nuclear energy, but would also focus
on positive forms of energy conservation. From an air quality
point of view, this would be an optimum strategy, since the
use of energy is almost directly related to the generation of
air pollution.
At the regional level, there exist a number of opportunities
to develop a strategy designed to conserve both energy and air
resources. While such strategies cannot ignore the global
aspects of the problem as outlined above, they do offer local
governments the opportunity to take a greater initiative in
controlling the use of energy resources and the air pollution
consequences that accrue within the Region. Furthermore, these
opportunities occur in policy areas where local governments
have traditionally played a strong role: public utilities, land
use, transportation, and zoning.
An analysis of metropolitan Wasington was undertaken for the
Washington Council of Governments which addressed specifically
the relation of energy consumption to land use and development
alternatives. 5 Five development scenarios were identified in
the study: "Dense Center," "Transit Oriented," "Wedges and
Corridors," "Beltway Oriented," and "Sprawl." Among the
alternatives it was found that there existed a potential for
a nine percent energy reduction if the "Dense Center" alternative
was selected over the "Sprawl" option.
The "Dense Center" alternative was closely followed by the
"Transit Oriented" plan in terms of the energy saving potential
demonstrated. This alternative is perhaps most appropriate from
an air quality point of view, since it avoids the higher
concentrations of pollutants associated with a dense core area.
It was characterized in the study as a plan which provided for
the location of major residential and employment areas at the
planned stops of the rapid rail system now being built in
Washington. Housing densities would be moderately higher
allowing for an additional energy savings in the construction
and heating of multiple dwelling units. Energy savings in the
transportation sector can be attributed to shorter trip lengths,
fewer trips, and a higher level of ridership on public transit.
A similar but more modest effort was funded for the Colorado
Springs area by the Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments in
the analysis of "Options for the Future." Differences in the
gasoline consumed in the "Feasible Option" versus the "Infilling
and Satellite Cities" alternative indicated that there was a
fuel savings of approximately five percent associated with the
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"Infilling and Satellite Cities" option. Since neither of the
options was selected with the intent of optimizing air or
energy resources, it appears certain that greater savings
could be realized with additional attention to these elements.
Transportation Planning and Air Quality
The automobile is one of the principal sources of air pollution
in urban areas. In Colorado Springs in 1975, vehicular traffic
accounted for approximately 96 percent of the total carbon
monoxide burden within the metropolitan area. ^ Transportation
management is a key element, therefore, in any strategy to
control air pollution.
It also appears that automobile manufacturers, particularly
those in foreign countries, are close to developing engine
modifications that will allow automobiles to approach very
closely the statutory limits for pollution emissions. This
implies that, except for major metropolitan centers, most urban
areas will be able to attain ambient standards for air quality
over the long term. The focus of a systems analysis such as
this one is not on the single effect of a control strategy on
air quality, but the multiple benefits that accrue to an urban
system as a result of a set of strategies. The rationale for
transportation planning in this context will rest not so much
on the air quality payoffs to be realized, but the total effort
in reducing the public costs for transportation improvements,
in reducing the time spent for commuting and urban travel, in
reducing the cost and use of energy resources for transportation,
and in creating an urban environment that is designed to a
human scale.
Transportation technology should be used to give urban areas
the form desired, not cause cities to develop in ways that suit
transportation systems. Like other technologies, transportation
alternatives are sufficiently flexible to adapt to many possible
urban forms. Once it is decided what kind of city we want to
live in and the values we wish to maximize, a large part of
achieving a comprehensive transportation planning program has
been achieved.
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In general there are two kinds of strategies that will generate
the multiple benefits outlined above. One centers on strategies
to improve the flow of traffic; the second focuses on efforts
to reduce the number of automobiles on the highway or reduce the
number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The first of these,
though often considered independently, must be closely tied to
the second if any long range improvements are to be expected.
Pollution emissions characteristically improve after traffic
improvements are made, but may increase by as much as 20 to 25
percent after five years. The reason for this is that although
speeds are increased over the "no improvement" case, the reduction
in emissions associated with the higher speeds may be rapidly
overwhelmed by the additional number of vehicles attracted to the
improved facility. Researchers conclude that traffic flow
improvements should be viewed only as a short-term measure for
reducing air pollution unless traffic volumes can be reduced or
restrained. 7
The number of alternatives that exist to improve traffic flow
and to reduce VMT is quite large and have been well documented
in a number of studies. EPA and the Department of Transportation
are two of the best and most accessible sources for such
information.
Public transit is a principal example of a strategy to reduce
VMT, and thus the pollution contribution of autos,. In low density
cities, reliance on conventional buses cannot be expected to
maintain the level of service and ridership found in higher
density metropolitan areas. Investments in mass transit may
only be justified by the social need of mobility for persons
unable to use privately-owned vehicles. Only if system improve-
ments are closely coordinated with a comprehensive planning
effort designed to support such a system can reliance on pri-
vately owned vehicles be reduced. Since the conventional buses
represent an acceptable and well tested system, additional con-
sideration of the comprehensive planning implications should be
instructive.
In general, conventional large buses are most effective either
in high density corridors or among high density development nodes.
Clearly, such a system cannot efficiently link the low density
residential areas and widely scattered commercial and employment
centers that have characterized development in many metropolitan
areas. Such nodes or corridors should include not only high
density residential components, but should include as many of
the essential urban land uses as possible. These would include
employment opportunities, commercial centers, and service
industries.
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Land use administrative policies might be designed to encourage
these development patterns enhancing the bus system. Special
density bonuses could be given for new developments located
along and designed as a part of bus corridors. Greater bonuses
would be given if a development is located at the intersection
of two bus lines; an area within a quarter mile of three bus
lines would be provided even greater incentives for high density
development. Parking requirements for developments could also
be reduced if they were integrated with public transit systems.
In addition to the land use planning elements, design criteria
would be critical to encouraging such a system. Public transit
must be convenient and easy to use - ideally, more convenient
than auto use. Designs of apartment complexes, for instance,
could be oriented to accommodating a bus circuit rather than
providing auto parking at every doorstep. Commercial and
service areas must be similarly oriented so that buses are
available within a few steps of business entrances. Links
must be designated to facilitate the ingress and egress from the
transportation grid to the development nodes; facilities may
also need to be altered to provide preferential treatment of
bus traffic over auto traffic.
The private sector could also be encouraged to participate in
other ways. Parking refunds at stores could be supplemented
or replaced by transit refunds. In return for conserving
asphalt and land in parking lots at their place of employments,
transit riders could be compensated for their contribution to
lower site costs through transit refunds. Costs for such
subsidies could be offset, in addition, by charging employees
who did not participate in car pools or use buses for parking
their cars at the place of work. Working house could be made
more flexible to allow workers to arrive and leave at times
that would fit better with transit schedules. Special awards
or recognition could be given employees that were most con-
scientious in using transit facilities. Contracts with private
security guard companies might be extended to cover not only
the facility, but the area between the facility and the bus stop
during those hours when employees are entering and leaving work.
In short, the commitment of a community to a conventional bus
system must involve not only the decision to buy new buses and
improve the support facilities, but will depend to a large
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extent on the contributions of the public and private sectors
to make the system feasible and self-supporting. These decisions
will involve innovations, testing, and a redistribution of the
costs and benefits associated with private auto use. The tre-
mendous potential of comprehensive planning, however, lies in
the fact that if fundamental changes are made now, urban form
can be shaped with a minimum of disruption and with advantages
accruing both to the private and public sectors.
Other transportation alternatives could also be applied to
metropolitan areas. Para transit systems include a class of
service between the automobile and the conventional bus; primary
examples would be vans, mini-buses, and taxi-cabs. In low
density sectors of metropolitan areas, these alternatives might,
in fact, be operable with greater efficiency than the larger
buses now used.
As with bus transit alternatives, the use and potential of para
transit systems have been well documented in a number of sources.
Success of the various schemes has been mixed; a number of
critical variables must be weighed before one can be reasonably
assured of operating with success. These include the cost
charged to the passenger (ridership is inversely proportional
to fare), the length of trip (short trips to work do not gener-
ally encourage use of public transit), labor regulations affecting
the selection of driver (full time paid drivers raise the cost of
para transit significantly), and the comprehensiveness of the
system (as the service area and frequency of service declines,
ridership drops).
A van pool system has many advantages of mass transit while
avoiding the large costs associated with full time drivers,
dead-heading buses back to their origin after delivering workers,
etc. While it does imply some risk to the employer and some
managerial time, it can be a very successful program if enough
thought is given to its management. Such things as providing
preferred or weather protected parking spaces to van pools,
providing incentives to the driver to properly handle the vans,
and providing an efficient matching program at the place of
employment will be important factors in determining the success
of such a program.
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Other alternatives, though limited in their application, may be
useful in addressing particular emission problems. The develop-
ment of bikeways and the encouragement of bicycle use falls in
this category. With increasingly strict auto emission standards,
a greater portion of the emission problem will be associated with
the number of trips made by auto users and not the length of
trips (VMT). This is true because autos equipped with catalytic
convertors are particularly inefficient with respect to the
control of emissions when the auto is first started (cold starts)
and when the engine is stopped after a trip (hot soaks).
Strategies which reduce the number of trips, and thus the inef-
ficient starting up and shutting off of autos, will be important
regardless of the length of the trip taken. Bicycles are useful
alternatives for reducing the number of auto trips when short
distances are involved. Data from a recent nationwide trans-
portation study indicated that 25 percent of auto trips are less
than 1.5 miles long, and another 13 percent are between 1.5 and
2.5 miles. 8
In summary, potential does exist for undertaking alternative
transportation programs. Their attractiveness as an alternative
to traditional transportation modes is linked to the multiple
benefits associated with their use: reduction of traffic
congestions, improvement of air quality, conservation of energy,
and reduction in parking space requirements. Obviously, such
programs must be carefully planned and begun on a relatively
small scale; however, their potential for inclusion in a longer
range energy and air quality program warrants greater experimen-
tation within the region. Experience in a number of urban areas
indicates that such experiments can be self supporting, will
make commuting easier and less costly for urban residents, and
can achieve the multiple system benefits described above.
From a comprehensive planning point of view, it is important to
remember that transportation control actions have a significant
impact on urban systems, and will form one of the critical ele-
ments in a long term strategy for resource conservation, fiscal
savings in road construction and maintenance, and the shaping of
urban form. Portland, Oregon's experience in van pooling with
22,000 employees, for example, was able to demonstrate a savings
of 76,833,212 vehicle miles traveled, 5,946,843 gallons of
gasoline used, $12,216,480 in commuting costs, and 5,605 tons
in reduced pollution emissions in a single year.
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Air Pollution and Open Space Planning
Open space planning can be an important complement to air quality
planning efforts, though perhaps not in as direct a way as other
elements of a land use plan. The primary benefits of open space
in this context are related to its potential function as a buffer
zone, or as a mixing and dispersal area for air pollutants.
In certain urban planning cases, however, it can play a much more
important role in constructing a comprehensive planning program.
One of these cases would be in the design of malls for urban core
areas. The mall concept has several applications, but is
generally intended as a means of revitalizing downtown areas, of
providing a richer environment for the pedestrian, and for focusing
the urban center ow a more human and natural scale. A very
important correlate of this planning is that it frees the downtown
shopper or worker from the noise, danger, and air pollution of the
automobile. The considerable amount of space previously relegated
to the automobile can be redesigned to enrich and enhance the
urban landscape through the design of the mall. The open space
design plays a critical role in the redesign process, since the
attractiveness, ease of use, and ultimately the competitiveness
of the urban core area will rely substantially on the attention
given to the design and function of the mall area.
A second special role of urban park design relates to the creation
of another automobile alternative, the bikeway. Abandoned railroad
beds, drainage ways, and other linear systems can be used as
bikeways. Again, it must be emphasized that urban dwellers will
not abandon their automobiles unless other alternatives are
attractive and convenient. The development of these corridors
must necessarily incorporate open space planning as part of the
design process. In mild climate areas, the use of such bikeways
may not only be a safe, relatively pollution free, and invigorating
means of commuting, but provides an enjoyable natural experience
with the change to experience waterways, natural areas, and the
accompaniment of song birds on the way to work. When compared
to the normal asphalt, traffic light, and car bumper landscape
that accompanies urban commuting, it is difficult to imagine
that more persons would not be drawn to such alternatives.
A third important application of open space to air pollution
problems concerns the design of schools in urban areas. Since
school age children are more highly susceptible to the effects
of air pollution, particularly related to respiratory disorders,
the design complement of school site and open space can be of
special importance. Generally, designers have developed well
the school park concept. School sites are often combined with
park areas so that maximum spaces are available for designs that
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buffer schools from the danger, noise pollution, and air pollution
associated with streets. When such designs are integrated with a
street system that allows the location of school sites adjacent to
neighborhood streets or other low volume traffic paths, air
pollution impacts can be ameliorated to a large degree.
Apart from these special cases, the role of open space with
respect to air quality maintenance relates primarily to the
potential to use such areas as buffer areas or zones in the
vicinity of large polluters. Industrial areas, airports, power
plant sites, and high-volume highways are examples that would be
particularly appropriate for such treatment. The development of
such buffer areas is more confined, however, since they do not
have the potential for development as recreation areas in most
cases. An exception might be the uses of areas around airports as
motO'Cross parks in order to divert a portion of the motorcycle
traffic that presently use public lands for their travels. In
general, however, such areas will be difficult to maintain as
multiple use areas. Assuming zoning controls can be applied to
maintain the areas as agricultural, the management of such areas
may be relatively straight forward. If pressures for developing
lands to their highest potential, despite environmental consequences,
make such a strategy difficult to pursue, more stringent land use
controls in the form of air pollution density controls, indirect
source review procedures, or other alternatives may need to be
applied.
Residential Planning
Residential areas are responsible for the generation of pollutants
from two souces: home heating and automobiles. In a community
where natural gas is the primary heating fuel, the primary
pollutants generated are particulates, hydrocarbons, and oxides
of nitrogen. A low density community of 10,000 housing units
would produce on the order of 150 pounds of particulates per
day, 300 pounds of hydrocarbon per day, and 1,000 pounds of
oxides of nitrogen per day. While it is unlikely that
residential areas using natural gas could be the principal
cause of an air pollution episode, the increasing shortage
of natural gas will cause communities to seek other sources of
energy for home heating. Part of the short fall may be make up by
the use of electric or solar energy. In the case of the former,
pollution contributions shift to the analysis of power plants
within the regiWi. In the latter case, the air pollution
consequences are essentially nil. A third alternative, coal
heating, may be used for heating within the home and the
pollution consequences may be more significant. Obviously home
furnaces cannot include the sophisticated pollution control
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equipment that is used for coal-fired power plants, nor can one
expect the careful monitoring and maintenance of combustion that
is an essential part of power plant operation. What one can expect
are units that are quite cost effective when compared to solar or
electric heating and which would, therefore, have the potential to
capture a significant share of the market created by the natural
gas shortages. These consequences, then, must be evaluated in
some detail in a comprehensive evaluation of future land use
patterns. When combined with other neighborhood uses which may
come to depend on coal, such as schools, the impact on air quality
may be significant.
Cars contribute pollutants to residential areas in the form of
carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and oxides of nitrogen. On a
metropolitan scale, the contribution of auto use within residential
areas is a relatively small percentage of the total pollution
burden; most of the automobile pollution is contributed by trips
from residential areas to some outside destination such as work,
shopping areas, or recreational facilities. However, the relation
of residential areas to other land uses is of some interest from
an air quality planning point of view and has a number of
implications for the design and planning of residential areas.
Design Considerations
There are essentially two critical variables in the design of
residential areas that affect air quality: residential density
and residential location. With respect to building density, the
first finding is that higher residential densities contribute
less to both automobile and heating pollution burdens. There
are a number of reasons for this observation. Multi-family
structures are generally more heat efficient since a lesser
percentage of the total surface area of the building is exposed
to the outside. Even town house construction which shares only
one party wall between units can result in a reduction of fuel use
and air contamination by one third. It should also be noted that
larger multi-family units also offer the opportunity to use a
single heating plant which can be designed to higher standards
and maintained at a more rigorous schedule for heating efficiency
and pollution control. As for auto use, research findings indicate
that spatial differences between high and low density communities
favor the higher density communities in terms of air quality. It
is also found that car ownership varies by housing type and density;
this variable is reflected in trip generation equations. ^
While the density variable may reflect an income bias (richer
people own their own homes and can afford more autos), a higher
density community should reduce the length of trips as well as
the number of cars per household.
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The second finding with respect to the consequences of building
design is that there are multiple benefits to be realized from
well designed, higher density residential areas. The Real Estate
Research Corporation evaluated six residential alternatives, the
critical variables being housing density, the mix of housing
types, and efficiency of design. This research project indicated
that the high density planned alternative contributed only 53
percent of the total air pollution burden accounted for by the
low density sprawl alternative. *2 jn addition, the potential
for similar benefits in other elements of the urban system
was apparent. The report evaluated four factors related to
water quality: flooding, groundwater, erosion and sedimentation,
and pollutants to surface or sub-surface waters. The community
analysis indicated major differences in storm runoff and sedimentation
from runoff: the high density planned community contributed
approximately 40 percent less pollution from sedimentation and
25 percent less storm runoff ^ than the low density sprawl
alternatives.
Estimates of publically supported services such as police
protection and fire protection showed similar advantages for
more compact and comprehensively planned residential areas.
Utility systems - sewerage, storm drainage, water service, gas,
and electrical systems - also proved to provide savings in capital
and maintenance among the higher density alternatives. ^ Taking
into account the environmental impact of development and considering
the potential cost savings to both the private and public sectors,
then, the design of residential neighborhoods is a critical
element in creating an efficient urban environment. Furthermore,
the systems analysis points to a consistent set of findings with
respect to the most appropriate direction for development. Though
there is still a very strong public sentiment towards low density
development, the increasing costs of such development will require
that a significant portion of new households will need to explore
other alternatives. It should also be underlined that there are a
range of alternatives; efficient planning does not necessarily
require that all new housing be very high density. As indicated
earlier in the report, even town house construction provides
considerable savings in energy use, pollutant emissions, and
construction costs; it is an alternative that also provides many
of the amenities associated with single family construction.
Residential Location
The relation of residential areas to other land uses is of special
importance since it bears heavily on the use of the automobile.
Both the number of trips and trip lengths are associated with the
relation of residential areas to the service, employment, and
recreational opportunities which support them. One of the most
important concepts in realizing a more efficient relation among
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these sectors is that of mixed land uses. However, land use
planning has developed with a singular focus on zoning patterns
which separate land uses and which characteristically consider
a single structure on a single parcel of land. With this history,
an increasing emphasis on mixed use development signifies a major
departure not only from public policy and planning, but from the
private sector that has evolved towards the design and financing
of single use developments. Since residential development seems
to be the most problematic and financially precarious element in
mixed use development, it is perhaps most appropriate that some
additional attention be given to the concept here.
In its basic form, the mixed use development is merely a variation
or extension of the nodal development or activity center concept
discussed in other sections. The advantages to be realized from
such development are associated with the integration of higher
density housing, the superior service that can be offered by
public transit, the greater emphasis on pedestrian and bicycle
modes, the savings to be realized in infrastructure, energy
savings, and air quality improvements. There are also a number
of consequences that are peculiar to the internal design of such
centers. For example, experience has demonstrated that the peak
parking demands for different uses occur at different hours.
Employment centers attract most traffic during daily working
hours; residential areas require most parking for after-work hours.
There exists the opportunity in such developments to share parking
facilities, therefore, and provide greater cost savings to the
developer, a reduction in storm-water runoff from the impermeable
surface, and potentially a reduction in particulate pollution
from a reduced area of paving that would require sanding during
the winter months. Other advantages might be realized in the
potential for waste recovery in dealing with large building units
The Department of Housing and Urban Development will soon be
sponsoring a study to investigate this potential. Finally, the
development of such centers provides the opportunity for larger
scale development and greater design flexibility by departing
from the single use concept.
Development Requirements
Since the mixed-use concept requires a major departure from
conventional development patterns and involves a much larger
scale of development than is normally the case, the planning
demands of such development must be considered in much greater
detail. One of the important lessons to be learned from
experiences in mixed-use development is that there must be a
shared responsibility on the part of the private and public
sectors in the development of such centers. Because of the
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difficult financing and design requirements of a mixed-use
center, the private sector must be allowed the flexibility to
produce a workable development. The public sector, on the other
hand, must have the assurance that the proposed development will
achieve public goals and that the development will proceed in a
way that is practical from a fiscal point of view. There must be
a commitment on the part of both parties, therefore, that such
development can be structured for the benefit of both and that the
fullest cooperation from both sectors can be relied upon in
realizing the plan.
A number of tools are available from the public sector to foster
such a coordinated and responsible effort. Planned Unit Development
(PUD) codes can be structured to include an activity center or
mixed-use variation. Such a code would place greater emphasis on
design and performance criteria and less emphasis on precise
requirements for parking spaces, building coverage, use relationhips,
etc. One "town center" ordinance, for example, has no requirements
for parking other than the performance criteria that all parking
must be on-site and exclude the use of public streets. The designer
is thereby allowed to choose among shared lots, public transit,
car pools, parking garages, or any other design solution that
would satisfy the parking problem.
Financial tools are also available to the public sector that could
be used to facilitate such developments. Industrial revenue bonds,
tax increment planning, the designation of improvement districts,
and the assemblage of land through Urban Renewal districts are all
examples of tools which can be structured to encourage desired forms
of development. Each of these, of course, has particular
applications and will require thorough evaluation for particular
projects. What is suggested here is that a commitment by local
governments to pursue such development can be backed with the
critical resources needed to make it feasible.
Advanced Technologies
One of the most useful roles of comprehensive planning is to
anticipate emerging changes in technology, so that urban systems
can be adapted to take advantage of the benefits that can accrue.
Because of the interaction among systems, special attention must
also be paid to the potentially adverse consequences of these new
technologies. A number of interesting examples can be mentioned
of technologies that will allow greater efficiencies in the use of
energy, water, and waste reuse in the urban sector. We can also
expect other major urban systems such as transportation to evolve
towards more efficient and less polluting modes as demands of
energy, space, and capital resources force new solutions to urban
movement problems.
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One area of interest that will affect all of us are the changes
in residential design that can be anticipated. One can expect
designs to be more functional than present in order to conserve
water, fuel, and space. On an average basis, 36 percent of the
total amount of water used in households is consumed by toilets,
for example. *5 Future designs might well incorporate composting
toilets as an alternative to conventional system; venting systems
will be particularly important in avoiding air pollution, or at
least odor pollution problems. Similarly, one might expect
innovative designs in the future to eliminate setback requirements
for construction to avoid large, water consuming lawns. Design
standards will, instead, be written to preserve solar planes
and to provide space for gardens, green houses, and play equipment.
Spaces between units will be separated by walls rather than large
expanses of lawn to preserve privacy, and more efficiently
designed patios or atriums will serve as a focus of outdoor
activity rather than the lawn.
At a neighborhood scale, one might expect a greater attention
to bicycle and pedestrian modes of travel and more efficiently
designed links to public transit services. Partly as a result
of smaller lot sizes, park and recreational areas will be of
greater importance and will be more widely used. The design
emphasis will be on the utilization of areas in their natural
state in order to avoid maintenance and watering costs.
Each neighborhood or district unit will have as its focus a
high density activity center which will provide high density
apartment areas, commercial facilities, and business opportunities
within a short distance of neighborhood residents. The center
will also house its own power plant which will use solid waste
from the complex to provide both electricity and heat to surrounding
buildings. Asphalt parking lots and streets will be underlaid
with heat exchangers to absorb additional amounts of heat to
run heat pumps used for air conditioning and heating. Air
pollution impacts will be minimized through greater heat and
electrical efficiencies and through the decentralization of
power generating facilities; greater attention to the development
of employment centers as a focus of neighborhood developments
will decrease the need for auto commuting and further reduce
pollution.
While these ideas may seem too hazy to be relevant, these
technologies are now on the horizon. In Sweden, for example,
large apartment complexes have been constructed to act as their
own recycling center for solid wastes. Cogeneration facilities
for heat and electricity were considered for the World Trade
Center in New York before special rates were offered by
Consolidated Edison. 16 Fluidized bed combustion chambers will
allow the burning of solid waste for fuel with minimal pollution
effects.
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When one considers that zoning and subdivision decisions are
being made now that will determine the urban form that will
exist twenty-five years from now, the importance of innovative
long range planning becomes more apparent. Many of the
implications of these technologies will focus on the architectural
or design solution to specific problems rather than broader
planning considerations. However, certain concepts such as the
use of multi-use activity centers as a focus of community development
should be pursued now if we are to meet future efficiency
requirements for urban growth. Neighborhood design will also
be an important consideration if we are to provide the proper
balance and protection between community centers and the residential
areas they serve. Transportation networks will need to focus on
the development of other modes in addition to the use of conventional
automobiles for urban travel. And planners and decision makers
may find that "Small is Beautiful" is an appropriate maxim for
designing urban systems to meet the demands of the Year 2000.
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AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS
The analysis phase is certainly one of the critical stages of
the comprehensive planning process. It aims to define and locate
urban system needs; to evaluate the social, environmental, and
economic costs of system development; and to assess the relationship
of one system element to another. The creation of the methodology
for planning analysis and the selection of the criteria for plan
evaluation are critical areas where air quality considerations
must be incorporated if the integration of comprehensive planning
elements is to take place. Obviously, the scale and scope of
analyses within a region will depend to a large degree on the
resources available for planning, the organizational relationships
among planning areas, the rate of growth within the Region, and
those other factors which determine the need for planning.
The most relevant criterion in determining the scale of analysis
as it relates to air quality will be whether or not the area now
exceeds or expects to exceed ambient air quality standards.
Normally, such regions have been designated as Air Quality
Maintenance Areas (AQMA), non-attainment areas, or areas requiring
Transportation Control Plans (TCP); in general, the State Air
Pollution Control Agency will be the best source of information
regarding the designation of a particular region with respect to
air quality problems.
The analysis framework discussed in this Chapter (outlined in
Figure 1) is not intended to serve as a blueprint for all other
agencies, nor will it serve to specifically demonstrate how one
is to accomplish each of the tasks implied in the analysis.
However, it is intended to outline those areas where air quality
information can be generated and used and to suggest how this
information can be applied as part of a comprehensive planning
program. The following sections will deal with each of the major
elements of the planning process outlined in Figure 1: Policy
Inputs, Modeling, Analysis, Plan Formulation, and Plan
Implementation.
Policy Inputs
The formulation of a set of policies for development are
fundamental to the planning process, for they define the
expectations of the citizenry, they outline the goals and
objectives for structuring development, and they provide
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standards for measuring progress towards some desired future.
From an air quality perspective, development standards are
represented by the national ambient standards for air quality.
These standards, in fact, are the basic criteria which the planner
will use to evaluate the air pollution impacts of alternative
land use futures. The following sections will deal in greater
detail with constructing the data and tools needed to predict
future air pollution concentrations.
The Model Set
Land use and air quality models are basic planning tools which
can be used to construct and evaluate alternative development
options. At the outset, it should be noted that the use of such
modeling tools implies a fairly rigorous approach to data collection,
calibration, and forecasting. However, these modeling tools are
relatively flexible instruments, and metropolitan areas which have
or expect to have a population of at least 50,000 should be able
to consider the application of such tools. Larger metropolitan
areas, of course, have much more complex data problems and
benefit to a greater extent from modeling programs.
The current set of land use models are based on a series of
"activity allocation" formulations. Examples of such models
are the Projective Land Use Model (PLUM), the Urban Systems
Model, the Empiric Activity Allocation Model, and the
Accessibility Opportunity Model. 17 They are designed to allocate
previously determined Regionwide totals of "activity" among a
set of sub-regions or zones for each of a series of forecast
years. "Activities" are defined within the various models as
counts of classes of populations, employment, and land use.
Land use models are designed to reflect the impact which alternative
policy decisions in one or more functional planning areas may have
on the future distribution of urban growth; that is, they
incorporate policy sensitivity. Major emphasis is placed upon
the treatment of transportation related policies, particularly
those which reflect conventional network characteristics of
transportation service. Other aspects of regional development
policy, particularly relating to future investment in public
utilities, land use controls, development densities, and
environmental planning can be handled by several of the models.
This coordination is provided by assessing the impact of specific
programs in each of several planning areas in turn as require-
ments of other urban systems. That is, zonal allocations of future
employment and population are subjected to a set of constraints,
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including an upper level of households within each zone, and a
set of land consumption constraints reflecting the manner in
which vacant land is consumed by development. The result is an
internally consistent set of projections of employment, population,
dwelling units, and land use by small areas for a given target
year.
This information, then, is of basic importance to a number of
functional planning areas, particularly water quality, transpor-
tation, and air quality planning. (See Figure 1.) In addition,
it provides considerable cost efficiency by providing a single
set of data which has application to the detailed requirements of
a number of functional areas. ***
For air quality analyses, land use data are principal inputs to
the description of area and line sources of air pollution. Area
sources of pollution are defined as small residential, institu-
tional, commercial, or industrial air pollution sources that,
when summed, represent a substantial source of air pollution.
Typically, regional air quality models treat each of the zones
in the land use model system as area sources of uniform density;
the main inputs to the area source emission calculation routines
are the number of acres in the zone, the total residential
population, and the total number of people employed within the
zone. Though treating the zones as an area source of uniform
density is likely to produce some distortion in the results, this
methodology is "not so much an inherent problem as a lingering
deficiency". Particularly for regional scale analyses, this
methodology cannot be considered to introduce any significant
errors. Line sources, as we shall see in the succeeding section,
are calculated through a set of transportation models.
Transportation System Models
Traffic information is a basic requirement for estimating ambient
air quality. One of the end products of transportation planning
studies is a summary of projected volumes on major streets in the
region under study. A brief description of the transportation
planning process will serve to explain the procedure involved in
projecting future air quality impacts. Major steps in the
forecasting of future traffic include:
- Trip attraction/generation: the trip attraction and
generation phase quantifies trips beginning and ending
in each zone delineated within a region or study area.
Trip generation methods are based on observed relation-
ships between the volume of trips beginning or ending in
a particular area and the land use or socio-economic
characteristics of that area. One statistical method
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for deriving trip generation equations is linear regres-
sion analysis which assumes that changes in one variable
can be precisely predicted when the changes in two or
more independent variables are known. These independent
variables may include basic employment, non-basic employ-
ment population, median family income, number of dwelling
units, number of employees by residence, automobile owner-
ship and similar factors. Many of these data, as we have
seen in the earlier discussion, are generated through the
land use modeling program.
- Trip distribution: the trip distribution process deter-
mines the pattern of zone-to-zone travel; that is, the
trip volumes generated from the first phase are distri-
buted throughout the study area. Trip distribution
equations assume that future travel patterns can be
predicted if travel times or costs between all zone
pairs are known. The method most frequently employed
for estimating zonal trip interchanges is the gravity
model, which predicts that the interchange between zones
is directly proportional to the number of trip ends in
each of the zones and inversely proportional to some
function of the spatial separation between zones.
Travel time factors are used to express the effect of
spatial separation on trip interchange.
- Modal split: this process determines the proportion of
trips which use the automobile as opposed to transit.
Again, certain data from the land use projections are
used to determine the modal split: population density,
employment density, and economic status of the tripmaker.
Modal split estimates also are based on the relative
travel time or costs via the auto and transit modes.
- Traffic assignment: the traffic assignment process
assigns trips to specific roads or streets of the highway
network or to specific routes of the transit network.
For modeling purposes, the network is represented by a
matrix of links and nodes, where the nodes describe end
points and connections of the links representing highway
or transit route segments. Trips are assigned to the
links according to travel time and link capacity cri-
teria, in an iterative process. These network models
are characteristically available from programs maintained
by the State Division of Highways or the Department of
Transportation.
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The emission of pollutants attributable to a road is related to
three maior factors. The first of these is the number of vehicles
on a segnent of road; this information is provided through the
traffic assignment process outlined above. The second factor
relates to the types of vehicle in operation; vehicles of dif-
ferent size, type, and age emit gaseous pollutants at different
rates. In order to simplify the process, characteristics of the
national vehicle population are often used where local data on
the vehicle mix are not available. The third principal factor
relates to the mode of operation of vehicles: starting,
accelerating, decelerating, idling, or steady speed cruising.
Because driving patterns or the mode of operation are distinctly
different on different types of roadway, average emission rates
are calculated corresponding to the types of roadway: collector
streets, arterial streets, and freeways. These average emission
rates or emission factors are compiled in AP 42 Compilation of
Air Pollution Emission Factors. ^0
When traffic volume and speed on a road segment are known, total
emissions from that segment, usually expressed as emission density,
can be calculated. Since air quality analyses are focused on
those times when a violation of standards is most likely to occur
or worst case conditions, peak hour traffic is of most concern in
calculating emission density. This information is usually avail-
able from the local traffic or public works department; if peak
hour data are not available, the annual average daily traffic
(AADT) can be used to estimate peak hour traffic, since peak hour
traffic is about eight to fifteen percent of AADT.
The calculation of emissions density for carbon monoxide (or
any other auto pollutant) can be expressed as follows:
Qco = K x V x Eco
where = CO emission density, —
xc0 J sec-m
V = peak traffic volume, vehicles per hour
Eco = emission factor, grams per mile
K = conversion factor
Air Quality Models
The basic tool used to evaluate the air quality impacts of
planning actions or development scenarios is an air quality
model which simulates the transport and dispersion of air
pollutants within an air basin. Models vary in complexity from
simple desk-top approximations to computer assisted models which
attempt to replicate complex chemical reactions which occur in the
atmosphere. Models also differ in terms of the scale of the
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problem being investigated. One class includes micro scale
models which are constructed to analyze particular projects or
activities such as shopping center developments or highway links.
This report is essentially concerned with the second class of
models: regional or mesoscale models. Regional models describe
the transport and diffusion of pollutants from all metropolitan
sources and estimate pollution concentrations for a large study
area. Air quality models generally serve two important purposes:
they can substitute for an extensive and costly network of pollution
monitors to compute present pollution concentrations, and they can
forecast future concentration levels of pollution based on expected
regional changes in key urban activities.
Volume 12 of EPA's guideline series for air quality maintenance
planning and analysis describes the application of atmospheric
simulation models to the investigation of expected air quality
problems. ^1 The most simple tool which has some purpose in the
analysis of pollution problems is called the Rollback Model.
The Rollback Model assumes that future concentrations of air
pollution are proportional to the ratio of existing emissions
to future emissions. That is, it assumes that a given reduction
or increase in pollution emissions will result in a similar
reduction or increase in pollutant concentrations. It is simply
a tool for scaling concentrations up or down to reflect the changes
in the total pollution contributions from point, area, and line
sources.
In order to apply the model, an air quality monitor must be
located at the point where maximum ambient concentrations occur.
Since air quality standards are tied to the violation of ambient
standards anywhere within the air basin, future estimates of air
pollution must attempt to determine any violation of standards.
For this reason, the calculation of future concentrations must
be tied to the location and measurement of concentrations where
maximum ambient concentrations presently occur.
The application of the rollback concept is mainly limited to
estimates of expected changes in air pollution at a regional
or air basin scale. Since emissions from the entire area are
summed, the data will tell the analyst very little about expected
emissions within a small area, the future occurrence of "hot
spots", the immediate impact of roadway construction projects,
or other specific phenomena. However, for planning agencies with
limited funds or that wish to estimate the scale of future
problems before deciding to undertake a more ambitious program,
such a tool can provide a useful short-cut to estimate the scale
of future emission problems.
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Dispersion Models
A more versatile set of models simulates the transport and
dispersion of air pollution from defined sources within the air
basin. An atmospheric dispersion model can be described as a
mathematical description of the transport, dispersion, and
mixing process that occur in the atmosphere. Four variables
characterize the atmospheric dispersion process:
1. Wind Speed - determines the "ventilation" rate
2. Wind Direction - determines the path where pollutants
are transported
3. Mixing Height - determines the depth of the atmosphere
available for vertical spread of pollutants
4. Atmospheric Stability - is a measure of turbulence in
the atmosphere. Atmospheric stability is divided into
classes A through F in the Pasquill method depending
on surface wind speed, solar radiation, and cloud cover.
Class A is the most unstable class; Class F is the most
stable one.
High wind speeds, unstable atmosphere, and unlimited mixing
height accelerate the dispersion process and represent favorable
conditions for the dispersal of air pollutants. Low wind speed,
stable atmosphere, and limited mixing height inhibit the dispersion
of pollutants and are associated with inversion or "worst case"
conditions.
Common to the mathematical description of dispersion in many of
the models is the use of the Gaussian plume equation or the Gaussian
distribution. The ground level concentration of a pollutant from
a continuously emitting point source is expressed by the following
equation: ^2
exp (- V )
^y
V5T o
y
C = Ground level concentration of a pollutant, usually
expressed in micro grams per cubic meter (ug/m^).
X,Y,Z = Coordinates of the receptor at which concentration
is estimated.
H = Effective emission height of the point source, in
meters.
exp (-H2 )
C (X, Y,0: H)= 2_o 7oz2
y -v/2T az
where
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Q = Source strength (pollutant emission rate), grams
per second.
T = A constant, 3.14.
Oy andaz = Lateral and vertical dispersion co-efficients, in
meters. These depend on stability, surface
roughness, wind speed, and distance between source
and receptor. They also depend on concentration
averaging time, and their values are available for
averaging times of a few minutes.
M = Mean wind speed, in meters per second.
This dispersion pattern is shown graphically in Figure 3.
Other models such as APRAC ^ allow the addition of other sub-
routines which calculate the dispersion of pollutants within
special areas such as street canyons (streets bounded by tall
buildings). Other inputs to the model include traffic distribution,
emission factors, and grid coordinates for line, area, and point
sources of pollution.
Emissions Inventory Requirements
The detail and coverage of the emissions inventory is a determin-
ing factor in the accuracy and specificity of the dispersion
model. Pollutant sources can be generally accounted for in three
classes: point sources, line sources, and area sources. Two of
these classes, line and area sources, have been discussed in
earlier sections. The third, point sources, is defined as those
sources which have emissions from a narrowly defined area that
exceed a certain classification level, such as 100 tons of
pollutant per year. Major point sources include power plants,
commercial space heating units, industrial process units (boilers),
and batch plants (asphalt and concrete production). The basic
data source for point sources consists of air pollution emission
permits submitted by businesses and industries to the local
health department. An inventory of point sources and rough
estimates for area and line sources are also maintained by EPA
through the National Emissions Data System (NEDS). In addition
to the kind of pollutant and the amount of emissions released
by the point source, the dispersion model also requires input data
identifying the location of the source in appropriate grid
coordinates, the stack height of the source, stack diameter,
stack exit velocity, and stack exit temperature.
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Figure 2 Gaussian Dispersion of
Source Under Crosswind
Figure 3 Gaussian Dispersion of
Under Parallel Wind Coi
Pollutants from an Infinite Line
Conditions
Pollutants from a Point Source
iditions
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Model Use
Because of the technical requirements of dispersion model
operation, many agencies will rely on consultant groups for the
evaluation of alternative development scenarios. This is perhaps
the most satisfactory arrangement, since it allows the use of
specialized services only as they are needed. Once a basic
evaluation program is completed, updates might be spaced as much
as five years apart. It is also a cost effective solution when
compared to the costs of additional staff persons; for a medium
sized metropolitan area, recent estimates indicated a reasonable
modeling program can be funded in the range of $20,000 to $25,000.
Such costs may vary substantially, however, depending on the
particular case to be examined.
Plan Analysis
The plan analysis phase of the comprehensive planning process
attempts to weigh the impact of regional growth and change in
terms of the resulting system needs, system costs, and the require
ments for public facility investments. This analysis must also
determine the social, economic, and environmental impacts of
growth, and it must investigate strategies to accommodate these
needs. This report can not describe all of the elements to such
a comprehensive analysis. The 208 funding program, for example,
is intended to investigate in detail only one of these elements:
the water quality impacts of a region's expected development and
the public investment required to achieve water quality goals
through waste treatment systems, management systems, land use
controls, etc. (As noted in the Introduction, the 208 program
also allows considerable flexibility in evaluating accompanying
air quality impacts).
The air quality impacts associated with regional development can
be evaluated using the set of land use, transportation, and air
quality models described in the previous sections. In order to
evaluate more precisely the sensitivity of regional air quality
to land use and population alternatives, additional dimension to
the analysis process must be included, however. This additional
dimension is provided through the consideration of various develop
ment scenarios for the region, each with a distinct pattern,
density, and rate for land use, population, and employment
activities. These scenarios can be constructed schematically as
shown in Figure 4 and are translated into the model set through
alternative zonal forecasts of population and employment.
44
-------
URBAN PATTERNS
Population
Employment
Population
Population
Employment
Employment
Populoti
Population
Employment
Employir^t
Populati
Population
Employment
mployment
Population
Employment
Pattern B
Moderate Corridors
Pattern 0
Corridor* Rotated
Pattern F
Satellite Cities
Pattern H
Employment Radiol Population
HIGHWAY NETWORKS
Alternate 1
Tfce Basic All-Arterial Grid
Alternate 2
Freeways Along Mojor Radials
Additional Rodiol Freeways And An Inner
Beltway Added For Moaimgm Ceveroge
TRANSIT NETWORKS
/ ./
Alternate 1
Basic Bus Network With Express Bus Service
Relocates Rapid Rail Radial Service
And Adds An Outtr Rapid Rail Loop
Alternate 2
Combines Rapid Rail Along Major
Redials With Bus Service
LEGEND
0-3500 / j i \ 0-1100
3500-5250 gQ 1100-2200
5250-12250 BH| Hb 2200-6600
AND OVER VnHj mBB ahd over
POPULATION
PER ZONE
EMPLOYMENT
PER ZONE
. ARTERIAL GRID
FREEWAYS
BASIC BUS LINES
EXPRESS BUS LINES
RAPID RAIL
Figure 4 Description of Urban Forms and Transportation System Simulation Study 26
-------
Such an analysis was performed by the Pikes Peak Area Council of
Governments in order to better evaluate water quality and air
quality management alternatives. Five growth options were
constructed: Current Trends, Satellite Cities, Infilling and
Satellite Cities, Infilling and Slow Growth, and the Feasible
Option. An inventory of air pollution emissions was derived for
each of the options (see Table 1). The real distribution or
concentration of pollution emissions was displayed in two forms.
One consisted of a series of isopleth maps which denote areas of
equal pollution concentrations; Figure 5 shows the expected annual
average concentration of Total Suspended Particulates (TSP) for
the year 2000 expected for the Feasible Option.
In addition to the generation of isopleth maps, the analysis also
compared alternatives on the basis of a pollution index. (See
Figure 6) The pollution index considers the expected spatial
distribution (location) of population and employment, the expected
concentration of each type of pollutant at ground level over the
Region, and their health and welfare effects. These data are
combined mathematically into a single number, set to a scale on
which a value of 10 equals an ideal situation (lowest theoretically
obtainable pollution), and a value of 100 equals a situation in
which air pollution corresponds to legal limits. Thus, the lower
the index value, the better the air quality. (A more complete
description of the index is provided in Appendix B).
A number of conclusions can be drawn from these analyses. First,
comparing total pollutant emissions (see Table 2), one finds that
the slow growth alternative results in the least emissions of
each pollutant. Satellite Cities, Satellite Cities and Infilling,
and Feasible Option follow with roughly the same amounts of
pollution, and the Current Trends alternative contributes the
greatest amount of pollution.
Considering the population weighted pollution index, the researchers
concluded that although the Slow Growth alternative showed a clear
advantage over the other alternatives, over most of the scale of the
population index (Figure 6), there is not a clear distinction among
the remaining alternatives. For most levels, however, the Satel-
lite Cities option is second to the Slow Growth alternative.
While one might have hoped for a more clearly observable
distinction among the alternatives, the findings are not unexpected.
Infilling and satellite city development, for example, tend to place
a greater portion of the population in high density areas. The
greater efficiency in land use, therefore, is offset by the presence
of greater numbers of persons in areas of highest pollution
46
-------
TABLE 1
SUMMARY OF AIR QUALITY PROJECTIONS
GROWTH OPTION*
Infilling § Infilling
Emissions
(Tons/Year)
1970
Current
Trends
Satellite
Cities
Satellite
Cities
§ Slow
Growth
Feasible
Option
CO
232,510
34,600
31,900
33,700
26,300
28,400
HC
36,400
6,100
5,700
6,000
4,600
4,950
NO
X
12,500
58,700
58,100
58,500
41,700
57,350
PARTIC.
14,150
55,100
54,900
55,000
41,600
53,650
so7
1,950
62,700
62,600
62,600
42,700
64,300
Pollution
Index
POPULATION 40.6 43.6 42.6 37.3 49.86
AREA 25 25 25 22 20
(10 = ideal)
(100 = legal limits)
* Taken from "Air Impacts" prepared by Resource Science Inc. for Options For the Future, What
Do They Mean (Colorado Springs: PPACG, 1975) p. 47.
-------
ANNUAL AVE:
< :
~-h~*
-------
107.5E
102.5:
97.5:
92.5:
87.5:
82.5^
77.5:
72.5:
67.5^
FIGURE 6
CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF POLLUTION INDEX
(FEASIBLE OPTION VERSUS INFILLING AND
SATELLITE CITIES)
62.5:
57.5:
I POLLUTION IffljEX
52,5
47.5
42.5
37.5
32.5
27.5
LEGEND
FEASIBLE OPTION
INFILLING AND SATELLITE CITIES
22.5
17.5
12.5
7.3
CUMULATIVE % OF POPULATION
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
49
-------
concentrations. In addition, the transportation system postulated
for the various alternatives does not vary substantially, since the
existing and committed systems define to a large extent the
pattern of future development, regardless of the land use
options selected. Existing systems refer to expressways, major
arterials, and other transportation system ^elements that are now
in place and which were designed to accommodate increases in
traffic for the sectors they serve. Because of the large investments
in such systems, substantial changes could not be expected in
order to accommodate radically different land use patterns.
Committed systems refer to improvements that are scheduled or
budgeted in order to meet immediate needs; again, substantial
changes would be difficult to engineer in response to long range
changes in land use patterns.
The greater land use and transportation efficiency of the satellite
and infilling patterns is more clearly indicated in the analysis
of gasoline consumption. As a supplementary phase to the analysis,
the energy impacts 6f two of the development options were evaluated:
Infilling and Satellite Cities and the Feasible Option. Using
statewide factors on gasoline consumption per vehicle mile and
adjusting these factors according to highway type and neighborhood
classification, the analysis indicates that the Feasible Option
will consume approximately five percent more gasoline than would be
the case for the Infilling and Satellite Cities option. Space
heating and industrial uses of energy were estimated to be nearly
the same for the two options. While this supplementary phase did
not provide a comprehensive view of related impacts, it does
demonstrate that a consideration of closely related phenomena can
be extremely useful in documenting the multiple benefits associated
with the selection of a single option.
For metropolitan areas that have some flexibility in the design of
future land use systems, then, a comprehensive analysis process
such as the one described here offers one of the most positive
ways of maintaining air quality. In effect, it allows decision
makers to adjust and adapt an area's form in ways to minimize or
reduce air pollution problems. This process avoids the more
disruptive actions that may be required to remedy pollution
problems after they have been allowed (perhaps inadvertently)
to occur.
50
-------
-------
AIR QUALITY CONTROL STRATEGIES
As the previous sections have outlined, the first step in regional
air quality analysis consists of evaluating development alternatives
to see if there are any growth and land use patterns that will lead
to the attainment of air quality standards. If such an analysis
demonstrates that development is not likely to occur in a way that
will lead to compliance with air quality standards, the second
stage in the analysis process involves the consideration of specific
air quality control measures. Since these measures will involve
the manipulation of urban systems to a much greater degree than
the selection of growth alternatives, it is important to develop
an analysis framework that will evaluate the relationship among
systems and provide a basis for choosing among control measures.
The emphasis here, as with the rest of the report, is on the evaluation
of the land use and growth consequences of pollution control measures,
for these elements form the interface of air quality with water
quality, transportation and other comprehensive planning issues.
The evaluation of air quality impacts, as described earlier, involves
the translation of changes in urban activities (auto use, industrial
production,construction practices) into a set of emission rates
which are distributed over the urban area using modeling techniques.
The evaluation of other systems involves the utilization of facility
impact criteria to assess the consequences of a particular project
or control measure. These impact criteria or evaluation factors
serve to identify opportunities or constraints to development.
Moreover, they provide the information for an evaluation of broader
policy issues, and they provide the means by which conformance to
overall plan goals and objectives are assessed. (See again Figure 1
for a schematic view of this relationship between analysis and
policies).
Each of these control measures will have a measurable impact on
the development of urban systems. This impact, in general, can
be traced to either of two factors: (1) changes in the emission
rates of a process, activity, or land use; or (2) changes in the
level or density of activity. Controls of auto pollution, for
example, can focus on reducing the emission characteristics of
autos, in reducing the use (VMT) of autos, or in redirecting
traffic to lower density corridors. The determination of the
reduction in pollution concentrations must, therefore, derive
51
-------
from estimates of changes in emission rates or levels of activity.
Obviously, the method for determining these reductions will vary
depending on which of the strategies are being considered; the
air pollution impact of a grading ordinance intended to control
erosion associated with land development will be constructed in
a much different fashion than the method used to estimate pol-
lution reductions from an automotive inspection/maintenance
program. A description of an appropriate methodology for each
of the possible control measures is beyond the scope of this
report. Once estimates of pollution reduction are obtained,
however, these changes are subtracted from the emission inven-
tories of point, line, or area sources, and their impacts on
ambient concentrations are evaluated using the modeling proce-
dures described in the previous sections of this report.
Table 2 provides a list of strategies that are applicable to
urban areas for controlling pollution problems. While not an
exhaustive list, it does attempt to outline those control
strategies that might be of regional concern.
In addition to the expected impact on ambient air quality,
control strategies such as those listed in Table 2 will undoubt-
edly have an impact on related urban systems. Table 3 lists in
the first column regional impacts typically considered in a
comprehensive planning process. Table 3 also lists criteria for
plan evaluation; these criteria allow for the quantification of
economic, social, and environmental impacts of alternative
development patterns, alternative air quality control strategies,
and alternative urban systems. Information sources relevant to
the quantification of impacts are summarized in the second column
of Table 3, "Data Sources."
Not all control strategies, of course, will have impacts on
other systems. Where strategies can be applied at a regional
level, however, other impacts can often be traced. Particularly
for those strategies that deal with land use controls (zoning
controls, development controls), transportation measures (transit
development), or housing development (higher densities), social
or related system impacts are readily identifiable. A compre-
hensive transit development program, for example, may include
zoning incentives for encouraging residential or employment
development along major transit corridors or at the intersection
of transit routes; such a zoning incentive program might imply
higher building densities, which in turn would alter the system
demands for handling waste water. Similarly, strategies aimed
at reducing the use of autos or making their use more difficult
and costly may have the effect of encouraging development which
reduce travel demands and decrease pressures towards urban sprawl.
52
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TABLE 2
STRATEGIES FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
Provide Alternatives to Private Auto Travel
- Increase transit capacity
- Attract transit ridership
- Increase para transit use
- Encourage pedestrian and bicycle modes
Improve Vehicular Flow
- Increase vehicle throughput
- Improve urban goods movement
- Reduce peak hour traffic columes
- Divert traffic from high density areas
Reduce Urban Auto Use
- Increase auto occupancy
- Increase cost of auto use
- Restrict zonal access
- Institute parking management plan
Reduce Urban Travel Demand
- Encourage communications substitutes
- Encourage decentralized nodal development
- Encourage four-day work week
Reduce Vehicular Emissions
- Institute front range inspection/maintenance program
Institute State standards for mobile emission
- Improve street maintenance, pave streets
- Mandate no-lead gas for all vehicles
- Retrofit cars with particulate traps
- Tax cars according to emission generated
Reduce Gasoline Consumption
- Develop urban minicar systems
- Introduce non-petroleum based vehicles
- Tax cars according to gas consumption
Develop More Transportation Efficient Land Use Systems
- Develop employment centers within existing municipalities
- Encourage development of multi-use activity centers
- Purchase or control critical open space areas
- Redevelop, revitalize urban core areas
Develop More Efficient Housing Patterns
- Encourage appropriately located high density development
- Encourage revitalization of older neighborhoods
- Encourage greater range of opportunities for low and
middle income groups, e.g., more appropriately located
with respect to employment opportunities
- Develop codes for efficient housing production, e.g.,
solar homes
53
-------
TABLE 2 (Con't.)
STRATEGIES FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
Control Developing Areas of Region
- Institute erosion controls on undeveloped urban lands
- Institute uniform grading requirements within Region
- Develop taxing program consistent with development goals
Develop More Stringent Controls of Point Sources
Restructure utility pricing
- Increase emission control requirements
Schedule phase out of most polluting industries
- Develop site criteria for facility location
54
-------
The third column in Table 3, "Data Cost", categorizes the costs
of utilizing various data sources. These costs are estimated
relative to standard planning model products. In the transpor-
tation planning process, for example, vehicle miles of travel,
accessibility indices, arid specific link volumes will be compiled
as part of the transportation planning process, so the cost of
these data is low. Moderate costs are indicated for data that
may be derived frota existing files, although some effort would
be required to compile data in a form useful for evaluation
purposes. A high cost is indicated for data that would require
field survey work or the preparation of plans in more detail than
needed for long range planning purposes. Time and financial
constraints may make it necessary to ignore some of the listed
data sources. Development of a sophisticated public cost eval-
uation model, for example, could cost in the range of $200,000
to $300,000. 27
The fourth column in Table 3 lists specifically those criteria
that would be used to evaluate and compare alternative plans.
These criteria include demand data (water use associated with
growth controls), costs (highway improvement estimates), and
qualitative measures (changes in landscape qualities). Each of
these criteria can then be weighed in relation to particular
system characteristics (the demand for water in relation to the
projected raw water supplies) or in terms of overall development
constraints (a transit improvement in relation to a city's total
capital improvement budget or bonding capacity). The principal
air quality criteria for evaluation of control measures are the
national ambient air quality standards; if a control measure or
a combination of strategies allow these standards to be attained
and maintained, they can be judged to be effective.
In order to further describe these evaluation criteria, the last
column in Table 3 categorizes the criteria with respect to scale,
sensitivity, and reliability.
The scale of the evaluation criterion is categorized as regional,
mixed, or local. Regional scale refers to criterian which
describe impacts on the Region as a whole. Local scale refers
to criteria that evaluate a small area, such as a neighborhood
or specific site. Mixed scale refers to criteria describing
impacts which are localized, but also exhibit spill-over effects
perceived outside the area of primary impact.
Sensitivity indicates the degree of variation expected for a
specific criterion, among the various air quality strategies.
Impacts shown to have a high sensitivity are expected to highly
dependent on characteristics of the air quality strategies;
criteria shown to have low sensitivity are more strongly related
to urbanization characteristics other than air quality strategies.
55
-------
TABLE 3
REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES
Regional Impacts
Source Data
Data Cost
Criteria
Evaluation of Criteria
Seal e Sensitivity Reliability
Air Quality Impacts
CO
Particulates
NO
Hydrocarbons
Ozone
S0„
Link volumes and speed
Meterological conditions
Point source inventory
Area source character-
istics
Transit system character-
istics
Low ( Ambient concentrations
Low \ Pollution emissions by land
Moderate ) use, industry type
Moderate \ Pollution emissions by
High I auto year, speed,
Low I altitude
Regional
Regional
Regional
Regional
Regional
Regional
High
High
High
High
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Regional
Low
High
Regional
Moderate
Moderate
Reg i ona1
Low
High
Mixed
Moderate
Moderate
Mixed
Low
Moderate
Regional
Low
nigh
Water Use
Consumptive Demand
for Water
Water System Require-
ments
Regional urbanization Moderate
characteristics
Growth characteristics Moderate
by sector
Regional use data, popula-
tion, and consumptive
projections
System demand projections,
capital equipment purchase
schedules
Water Quality Control
- Point Sources
Demand for Waste
Treatment Units
Demand for Collector,
Outfall Extensions
- Non Point Sources
Change in Runoff,
Sediment Loading
Change in Stream
Volume
Regional urbanization High
Regional urbanization High
characteristics
Storm flow characteristics, High
percolation rates, soil
erosion rates
Storm flow characteristics, Moderate
percolation rates, climate
factors
Stream pollution concen-
trations, capital cost
projections
Zonal, projections,
collector capacity, re-
placement, expansion costs
Amount of impervious sur-
faces, stream pollution
concentrations
Flow readings, annual
rainfal1
-------
TABLE 3 (Con't.)
REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES
Evaluation of
Criteria
Regional Impacts
Source Data
Data Cost
Criteria
Scale
Sensitivity
Reli abi1ity
- Non Point Sources (Con't.)
Change in Floodwater
Regional urbanization
High
Identification of critical
Regional
Low
Moderate
Absorption Capacity
characteristics, flood-
areas, affected land uses
plain, project design
Change in Groundwater,
Urbanization characteristics,
High
Change in recharge rates
Regional
Low
Moderate
Aquifer Recharge
aquifer system character-
for specific aquifers
Capacity
istics
Change in Soil Erosion
Soil loss equations, vegeta-
Moderate
Changes in soil cover, sLope
Local
Low
High
Rates
tive cover, climate factors
characteristics, impervious
cover
Energy Use
Gasoline Consumption
State sales tax receipts
Low
Selected annual costs
Regional
High
High
Natural Gas, Fuel Oil
Us 6
Utility system sales
Low
Selected annual costs
Regional
High
High
Coal Use
Utility system vouchers,
Moderate
Selected annual sales,
Regional
High
High
coal distributer sales
purchases
Transportation System Costs
Roadway Construction
New construction 6 widen-
Low
Total costs, 1976-2000,
Regional
High
High
ing mileage, design
selected annual costs
characterist ics
Transit Terminal Constr.
Number of vehicles by type,
Low
Total costs, 1976-2000,
Regional
High
High
Vehicle Acquisition
system characteristics
selected annual costs
Roadway Maintenance,
VMT, route mileage,
Low
Total costs, 1976-2000,
Regional
High
High .
Traffic Control,
system characteristics
selected annual costs
Admini strat ion
Noise Pollution
Sonic Disturbance to
I.ink volumes and speeds,
Low
Noise levels by resident
Local
Moderate
Moderate
Residential Areas,
transit characteristics,
population
Hospitals, Etc.
specific site character-
Sonic Disturbance to
istics
Low
Noise levels by land use
Local
Moderate
Moderate
Wildlife, Recrea-
tional areas
-------
TABLE 3 (Con't.)
REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES
Evaluation of Criteria -'-M
Regional Impacts Source Data Data Cost Criteria Scale Sensitivity Rellabiljij
Private Sector Costs 6
Benefits
Land Costs
Site development standards,
Low
Selected land sale prices
Mixed
Moderate
Low
accessibility indices
Land Development Costs
Design standards, site
characteristics
Moderate
Selected sale, rental
prices, industry
survey indices
Mixed
Moderate
Moderate
Property/Vehicle
Accessibility indices
Low
Changes in accessibility
Regional
Moderate
Low
Relationship
for specific areas
Tax Rate Changes
Property assessments, user
Low
Changes in tax rates for
Regional
Moderate
High
charges
gasoline, property,
pollution emissions, etc.
Social Impacts
Mobility by Private
Accessibility indices by
Moderate
Changes in accessibility
Regional
High
Moderate
Auto
employment and commercial
centers, public facilities
by population group
Mobility by Public
Accessibility indices by
Moderate
Changes in accessibility
Transit
employment and commercial
centers, public facilities
by population group
Mixed
High
Moderate
Vehicular Conflicts
Link characteristics,
Moderate
Changes in link volume,
Local
Moderate
Low
with Pedestrians,
design features
qualitative impact
Cyclists
assessment
Accident and Health
Vehicle miles by design
Moderate
Changes in morbidity,
Regional
High
Moderate
Hazard
class, population exposure
to pollutants
mortality by disease,
accident file
Displacement of Residen-
New construction § widening
High
Identification and valuation
Mixed
Moderate
Moderate
tial 5 Commercial Prop-
mileage, urban renewal
of affected sites
erties
project designs
-------
TABLE 3 (Con1t.)
REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES
Evaluation of Criteria
Regional Impacts
Source Data
Data Cost Criteria
Scale
Sensitivity
Reliability
Social Impacts (Con't.)
Aesthetics
Changes in Natural
Regional urbanization
High
Mixed
Moderate
Low
Landscape Qualities
characteristics
Changes in Scale of
Roadway construction, site
High
Mixed
Moderate
Low
Development
design characteristics,
historic area designa-
tions
Qualitative impact analysis
Changes in View
Roadway construction, site
High
Mi xed
Moderate
Low
Corridors, Landmarks
design characteristics,
historic area designa-
tions
-------
Reliability is an indication of the precision, accuracy, or
confidence with which a criterion can be predicted. It is
assumed that there are no gross errors in the development pro-
jections underlying the overall modeling process. The validity
of the development projections must be verified by observing
actual development trends.
Through a systematic evaluation of air quality control measures
and their impacts, there can be some assurance that planning
elements have been properly integrated. Again, the form which
such an analysis process takes will vary substantially from
region to region. The following chapters, however, attempt to
describe greater detail the form of two of the more troublesome
analyses problems: social and economic impacts. These chapters
provide some description of the nature of those problems, and
there is an attempt to define in general terms the appropriate,
direction in undertaking more detailed analyses. Appendix D
also provides an illustration of a regional impact analysis for
one control measure.
60
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-------
EVALUATION OF SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES
Air quality control strategies in most metropolitan areas will
in some way affect our life-style, our pocket books, and the living
environment which surrounds us. To the extent these effects can
be documented, they provide additional depth to the analyses of
air quality strategies. This depth provides an additional set of
criteria which can be used to compare strategies and offers material
which can provide more complete documentation or justification for
selected air quality strategies.
Because the evaluation of social impacts must deal to a large degree
with qualitative variables (aesthetic, life-style changes), one can
not hope for the same degree of precision that is allowed in the
comparison of costs, for example. The analysis of social impacts
will need to rely much more on a descriptive evaluation where
quantitative measures are not available. Table 4 provides an
example of the form such an analysis might take. It includes
criteria from the previous chapter and lists additional social or
"psychic costs". These criteria are applied to one specific
control measure, an auto inspection/maintenance program.
Impacts are briefly described and categorized in one of three
general categories which describe the net effect of the control
measure. Such a framework could be expanded to include a more
precise scale, for example, by rating each factor with points from
one to ten. A more precise scale, while certainly preferable,
also requires a more sophisticated weighting system to distinguish
among various scores or ratings. However, such an approach is not
to be discouraged, particularly where the local citizenry have
made it clear where their values are focused or which issues are
of most importance to them.
Alternatively, the number of positive or negative reponses may
simply be summed to give straight forward indication of the expected
social impacts. Again, appropriate descriptive summaries of the
social impacts as well as the inclusion of quantitative measures
where they exist e.g., expected increase in noise pollution in
decibels, can do much to bolster the analysis.
Social Issues
Regardless of the sophistication of the analysis process, at some
point alternative control measures will need to be exposed to the
strutiny of public opinion and political judgements. Public issues,
in fact, may be of greater consequence in the selection or
61
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TABLE 4
Social Impact Assessment
Program: auto inspection/maintenance
Operation: annual exhaust gas analysis of autos beginning with
model year 1977 to ensure compliance with manufactures
specifications
Criteria
Description of
impact
Net Effect
+ positive
0 no effect
negative effect
Cost
Minimum cost
Average cost
Maximum cost
$5 for inspection
$ 50 for time up +
$500 - $1,000 for major engine overhaul
Income Class
Effect
Noise
Pollution
Auto
Mobility
Transit
Mobility
Accident §
Health
Hazard
Low income families tend to have older cars
that will be more difficult and expensive
to maintain
Minor reduction from detection of
faulty mufflers
Minor inconvenience for inspection
scheduling
Slight increase to degree inoperable
cars result in greater utilization of transit
Reduction of health hazard associated
with pollution; 10-30% reduction in
regional levels of auto pollution
++
Residential Slight encouragement to expansion of
or Commercial auto repair sector
Displacement
Aesthetics Visual emissions from autos will be
controlled through program
Psychic costs
privacy
comfort Auto tune up will improve performance of
auto, comfort of use
security
status
possession Restricts auto ownership to ones with
operable pollution controls
responsiblity Increases time and effort needed
to maintain auto
authority Implies greater public control of
auto use
+
o
o
62
-------
acceptance of control measures than the cool dispassion of an
analysis procedure such as the one outlined in Table 4. While
there certainly is no key to the successful handling of public
issues, a more detailed discussion will perhaps provide some
insight into the shape such issues will take, methods for
assessing public response, and ways to search for fairness in
dealing with public issues.
The basic social response to air pollution is linked fundamentally
to a set of economic factors. These factors have been described
in the concept of common property resources ("sometimes formulated
in terms of the "Tragedy of the Commons"). Common property
resources are those that for a variety of reasons are not held in
private ownership but are in some sense collectively held; that
is, they are not under any person's or institution's managerial
control. Important examples of these resources are water bodies,
the air mantle, and various other ecological systems.
In a frontier society such as the one that characterized this
country until only recent decades, the dispersed populations
and low levels of economic activity did not generally tax the
capacity of air and water to assimilate wastes. These common
property resources were in such abundance that they come very
close to the economist's definition of free goods. But as
population, urbanization, and economic activity accelerated,
what were once plentiful environmental resources became
increasingly scarce. Nevertheless, the nation continued to
treat these resources as if they were free goods.
In most circumstances the price system provides incentives for
economizing on scarce resources. Goods which require scarce
resources in large amounts for their production or sale are
expensive compared to those that do not, so the consumption or
production of these goods is discouraged. Since common property
resources do not command a price, there is no similar disincentive
to minimize the discharge of pollutants into the air. The private
market system encourages their overuse rather than their conservation.
The problem is not that the price system does not work - it
works with marvelous efficiency. When the price of water and
air are fixed essentially at zero, thousands of firms and millions
of individuals bend their resources to use these cheap resources.
Thus, what is nominally rational social or market system behavior
creates a set of pollution problems which are socially and
physically unacceptable.
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The problem arises primarily because the institutions of private
property and exchange which we use for determining the value of
resources and providing incentives for their efficient allocation
do not function for environmental resources. There is, in fact,
a social value to air and water resources that is not reflected
in the price system.
A corollary of this concept is that in cases where there is no
charge or payment associated with the use of the air, there is no
incentive for an individual to incur costs for pollution abatement.
Since an individual's decision to buy an emission control device
or to carefully maintain his car, for example, has virtually no
effect on regional pollution levels, it is rational for the
individual to not incur costs of this nature, since he will receive
no perceptible benefits from his expenditure. Individual
initiative, while potentially a powerful force, can not be
expected to operate when such action is not consistent with
basic economic facts.
The basic problem, therefore, in designing programs that are
workable is two-fold: one is to create a framework for collective
action and collective management that accurately defines the
social cost of air and water pollution; the second is to develop
the proper social and financial incentives for the allocation
and management of air resources.
The social response of the citizenry to the problems of
environmental management is also shaped by other cultural and
institutional phenomena. Because of the complex nature of the
issues, because of the unprecedented scale of the problem, or
perhaps because of the mass media, there is commonly a disassociation
between real problems objectively posed by situations and often
formulated by specialists, on the one hand, and what public opinion
generally considers to be a problem, on the other. For a society
such as ours that has only recently passed from its frontier era,
problems have traditionally been smaller, more down-to-earth, or
more easily agreed upon. Secondly, the rapid acceleration of
technology and commerce - of history, in fact - no longer allows
for the deliberate, progressive working out of details characteristic
of traditional societies.
In our technological society, things change faster than social
systems can accommodate. What is required is a dynamic view of
the future. Instead of creating a fixed, unchanging, and stable
future, we must now absorb the dimension of change as a major
element of our lives. Goals we expect from the future are now
a moving target, demanding constant adjustments in the way we
perceive the future. The future can only take shape as we live
and advance toward it.
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Such a profound and rapid change in the basic social and
cultural requisites demanded by a technological economy account
in large part for the seetoing reticence of public groups to accept
the concept of environmental management. Public leaders, more
than other elements of the citizenry, seemed to be particularly
inflexible. A recent Harris survey found that 80 percent of the
Americans polled felt that the energy shortage is today a "serious"
problem; only two percent of political leaders think people view
the energy shortage as being "serious". In fact, leaders moved in
1976 to an even lower estimate of public concern over energy than
they had in 1975. Perhaps because political leaders are thought
of and think of themselves as "pillars" of the community they are
peculiarly handicapped in roles that require a keen view of the
future rather than a strong sense of the past.
While this analysis may be useful in understanding the social
dilemma posed in confronting air pollution problems, it does
not necessarily provide the insight necessary in constructing
a socially acceptable or equitable set of control strategies.
The most positive approach would be to focus on the development
of the necessary incentives to manage air resources. This
approach differs from the more widely applied regulatory approach
which sets fixed limits for the reduction of pollution. Once
the prescribed limit has been reached there is no further
incentive to reduce pollution. Instead, there is a positive
incentive not to do so, since additional reductions imply greater
costs.
Economic strategists find greater practical value in a pollution
charge or tax approach. Such a tax requires the firm or the
individual to pay for the pollution he has not removed, and
would automatically force each decision maker to reckon the
social cost of his activities. In addition, it provides a greater
incentive to reduce pollution, since costs are not related to the
achievement of a regulatory standard but to the pollution that
is not controlled.
One application of such an approach would be the application of
a "smog tax" for the control of automotive pollution. One version
of this tax would require cars to be tested periodically and
assigned a smog rating. A tax related to the amount of gasoline
consumed by the automobile would be fixed according to the
pollution rating of the automobile; that is, the cars that polluted
most would pay the most for the gasoline they use. Such a tax en-
courages the consumer to consider a number of alternatives: he can
have his engine tuned to reduce pollution and lower the tax
category of the automobile; he can drive fewer miles and reduce
the tax paid through the gasoline surcharge; or he can select a
new car with better performance characteristics, thus providing
an incentive for manufacturers to design more efficient engines.
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Multiple Benefits
Beyond the design of an appropriate incentive scheme to encourage
pollution reduction, another important criterion that should be
used to test the social feasibility of plans is the degree to
which air quality strategies achieve other land use, transportation,
and environmental goals. That is, air quality strategies which are
of positive value in achieving Gther planning goals have a much
broader base from which to draw support. For example, a properly
applied car pooling program will not only reduce the contribution
of cars to air pollution, but will reduce traffic congestion and
conserve energy resources. Similarly, grading ordinances are de-
signed to reduce both the wind and water erosion of soils associated
with land development. Such an approach underscores the importance of
a comprehensive approach to the air quality planning problem; in
practical terms, it is a prerequisite in the evaluation of control
strategies.
Equity Issues
The cosits and benefits associated with cleaner air will not be
distributed evenly. Those that live in rural areas, for example,
already enjoy relatively clean air, but they will have to pay
higher prices for automobiles, electricity, and other goods in
order to pay the expenses of reducing air pollution elsewhere.
On the other hand, large electrical power generating stations
may be located far from the urban area they are intended to
serve and "export" urban pollution to areas which receive
virtually no long term benefit from the stations.
Another critical social issue is the income distribution effects
of air quality strategies. Lower income families are more likely
to have older cars which may be difficult or impossible to maintain
to stringent emission standards. The cost impact of a retrofit
program would thus accrue to the segment of the population least
able to afford it. Similarly, lower income families are more
likely to live in homes that are thermally inefficient and would
pay a disproportionate share of the costs in controlling the air
pollution impacts of home heating.
While the impact of control strategies will vary according to the
social characteristics of each community and the severity of the
pollution problem, it does not appear likely that reasonable air
quality goals will drastically alter the distribution of income.
Costs and benefits, while not equally shared, will be widely
distributed. However, these considerations do underscore the
importance of selecting or designing efficient control strategies
so as to minimize the costs of achieving air quality goals. They
also point to the importance of financial incentives as a means
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of soliciting the participation of a larger segment of the population.
Loan guarantees, tax write-offs, restructured utility pricing, and
improvement assessment policies are all examples of financial tools
that can do much to encourage the participation of the citizenry in
air quality improvement programs.
Public Opinion Assessment
The preceding discussion has centered on the social response to
environmental controls and the critical factors that affect the
citizenry. As a conclusion, some focus on the methods of
systematically assessing public views should be offered.
As we have seen, one of the most appropriate measures of social
impact is cost. Where resources permit, the costs of alternative
strategies should be correlated with income characteristics of
the persons affected, the size of the firm, or other characteristics
which compare the incidence of control costs with the ability of
individuals or institutions to absorb these costs.
Another assessment tool equally familiar to planning agencies is
the use of advisory committees, citizen groups, public hearings,
and other public forums to solicit comments and reactions to some
set of alternatives. The citizen participation element in the air
quality planning program is a critical element, in fact, for it
provides not only the opportunity to better inform and educate
the citizenry with regard to pollution problems, but it provides
the most constructive opportunity to develop a constituency that
will support local efforts to institute air quality control
measures. Public acceptability of control strategies can only
be developed through the involvement and participation of the
citizenry. Equally important, the citizen participation element
provides valuable "feedback" to planners and elected officials
in designing control strategies.
Though vitally important, citizen participation programs are also
beset with a familiar set of problems, and other kinds of public
assessments may be useful. An additional tool is the use of the
random survey to solicit responses on a number of specific air
quality issues or programs. Such a technique offers the possibility
of selecting a representative sample from the community, and it
allows the researcher to pose the same straight - forward questions
to a large number of individuals. If mailed to households, it
also tends to be more convenient than attending public meetings,
since it allows the respondent to complete the questionnaire as
his schedule allows. While this survey technique also has a number
of limitations, if properly applied it can do much to provide
greater balance in the evaluation of social issues.
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Obviously, no single tool can single-handedly assess the social
impact of air quality strategies. Nor do social criteria alone
define the set of control strategies most appropriate for a
given region. However, the consideration of social issues is an
indispensable element in the analysis of air quality strategies,
and they bear heavily on the success or failure of an implementation
program. Every effort should be made, therefore, to inform the
citizenry of the critical issues, to discuss with them the alternatives
available for controlling air pollution problems, and to solicit
their feelings regarding the appropriateness and feasibility of
alternative strategies. While such a program cannot guarantee the
open and wholehearted response of the citizenry, it does provide
the proper framework.
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EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
The evaluation of the economic impacts of air quality strategies
is undoubtedly one of the crucial elements of the planning process.
Under severe conditions, air quality constraints may limit the
location or scale of growth, they may place severe limitations on
the economic viability of some polluting industries, or they may
constrain the capital improvement capabilities of local governments.
On the other hand, if the air quality constraints to regional develop-
ment are anticipated with reasonable foresight there exist a number
of alternatives which can accommodate air quality criteria and still
satisfy economic goals for the region. Scheduled improvements in
automobile technologies and strict standards for new point sources
of pollution will offer many regions flexibility in designing
strategies that, if properly applied, will mitigate the air pollution
impacts of development without serious economic consequences.
Nevertheless, careful attention must be directed to the economic
consequences in selecting a set of strategies. This chapter will
outline an appropriate methodology for analyzing air quality
strategies. However, the evaluation of each control option is a
difficult matter when the technology concerning them is complex,
and in most cases represents a complete study in itself. Instead,
this chapter will attempt to outline the criteria or framework that
will be most relevant to the evaluation of control strategies.
Cost-Benefit Matrix
Costs associated with the development of air quality control
strategies are generally easier to determine and compare than more
qualititative social impact variables. Other constraints in the
form of research and data acquisition costs will limit the scope of
the economic impact analysis, however. It should also be pointed
out at the outset that the evaluation of impacts must consider
benefits associated with control strategies as well as more readily
identifiable costs. The pollution control industry, for example,
is now a multi-million dollar industry and provides jobs to
thousands of persons. Shifts to less polluting and less energy
intensive kinds of products and processes will be cheaper for
the consumer and create greater numbers of jobs than large scale,
capital intensive projects such as nuclear power plants, or 1,000
kilowatt coal fired generators. Transportation system improvements
for pollution reduction may often imply greater system efficiency
and, thus, greater convenience and service to the individual. While
it may be difficult to relate the cost of additional pollution
control equipment on a power plant (and the accompanying rise in
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utility rates) to the benefits accruing to the manufacturers of
such equipment nationwide, such a perspective, even in a narrative
form, is important in providing a balanced view of control strategies.
Similiarly, it may be impractical to construct an analysis to determine
the expected reductions in morbidity or mortality and the resulting
decreases in health care costs for each control strategy of each
region, yet such a consideration is fundamental to the development
of an air quality control program. Research is continuing in the
health field, and the EPA or the National Technical Information
Service would be useful sources of recent studies documenting the
health consequences of air pollution; in as much as pollution effects
are generally the same regardless of their location, such research
findings can be useful as documentation for most air quality
maintenance plans.
A framework for analyzing the cost impact of control strategies is
presented in Tables 5 and 6. It is constructed as a matrix analysis
in order to consider both the costs and benefits of control strategies
and their incidence; that is, we need to be concerned with not only
what is paid for control, but who pays it. Table 5 provides one-half
of this matrix and outlines the range of costs and benefits that would
be appropriate for consideration in evaluating strategies. Table 6
provides the remainder of the matrix and categories the ways in
which costs and benefits may be distributed. These categories include
geographic, income, and size variables that can be applied to
determine what sector or what individuals are most affected. The
analysis attempts to determine, therefore, not only if costs or
benefits are reasonable, but whether or not they are fair in their
application.
Obviously, more complex micro@conomic analyses could be constructed
from the outline provided here. A control strategy affecting
industry, for example, might want to consider variables such as sales,
prices, profits, investment potential, industry dislocation, employment,
and community impacts as they relate to particular control measures.
The costs of such analyses are not trivial, however. As pointed out
earlier in the report, a public cost evaluation model also implies a
major commitment for all but the largest metropolitan areas. In
general, however, analyses can be scaled to the strategy being
considered, and that information of most direct interest to decision
makers can be readily attained. Table 7 provided an economic summary
of an auto inspection/maintenance that could provide sufficient
information in completing the evaluation of the program. It should
be pointed out, however, that the detailed analysis of an auto
inspection/maintenance program and its comparison with other automotive
control techniques is not a simple analysis. Automotive Testing
Laboratories prepared for the Colorado Department of Health a seven
volume analysis of emission control programs for vehicles operating
at high altitudes. 29
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TABLE 5
COST BENEFIT DETERMINATION
Public Sector Costs
Planning System Development
Administration
review
regulation, e.g., indirect source controls, zoning controls
enforcement, e.g., zoning and building code enforcement
Operations
e.g., carpool, vanpool, street sweeping program, parking management
Capital Improvement - Project Budget
street-highway improvements
public transit improvements
intrastructure development
special facilities
Utility Costs
pollution control of power plants
development, administration of conservation strategies
public education materials
Private Sector Costs
Industry Costs
reporting, administration
purchase, operation of new equipment or new processes
program operation, e.g., vanpool system for employees
land costs
changes in demand for product
Retail Service Sector Costs
administration
operations
capital improvements
land costs
changes in demand for goods or services
Consumer Costs
Auto operation
operation
maintenance
storage (parking)
purchase price
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TABLE 5 (Con't.)
COST BENEFIT DETERMINATION*
Land Costs
land use controls
accessibility factors
land use conflicts
Housing Costs
purchase price
home maintenance, rehab costs
operation (utility costs)
land use conflicts
Other Goods and Services
energy intensive products
"pollution intensive" products
changes in level or costs of services
changes in demand for goods or services, e.g., health care services
Employment Opportunities
jobs for particular sector threatened by industry dislocation, etc.
job potential expanded for pollution control sectors
access to jobs affected by transportation strategies
Health Benefits
reductions in morbidity
reductions in mortality
reductions in work absences
increased physical abilities, opportunities for recreational activities
reductions in health maintenance costs
*Note: Care must be taken in summing measures to ensure that costs
or benefits are not counted twice. For example, if pollution
controls add to utility system costs, they should not be
counted again as increased costs to consumers in the form
of increased utility bills. Similarly, increased industry
costs might also be reflected in increased consumer prices;
again, costs can only be counted once.
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TABLE 6
COST INCIDENCE
Public Sector Costs
local
regional
state
federal
mixed
Private Sector Costs
Industry Costs
industry-wide
location specific, e.g., only for industry sector in non attainment area
process specific, e.g., only for coal-fired operations
size related, e.g., only 100 ton sources
Retail-Service Sector Costs
sector-wide
location specific
size specific
product specific
increasing income
increasing income
Consumer Costs
Income Group Incidence
equal for all groups
increasing costs with
decreasing costs with
Neighborhood Incidence
greater costs or benefits
greater costs or benefits
greater costs or benefits
Regional Incidence
greater costs or benefits
greater costs or benefits
greater costs or benefits
for central city
for fringe or ring
for suburbia
for all jurisdictions
for specific areas
for region compared with State
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These studies, along with more recent updates by the Colorado
Department of Health, 30 Air Pollution Control Commission and
the Colorado Department of Health, conclude that a 10 to 15
percent reduction in carbon monoxide emissions can be realized
through a program requiring yearly maintenance. This maintenance
would fall within normal tune-up operations and would range in
cost from $35.00 to $60.00 should the auto fail the emissions
test. Costs for administering the program would be collected
through the yearly inspection fee (less than $5.00). Though
these data provide only a summary of much more detailed analyses,
they do allow the decision maker to determine quickly the relative
costs of such a program and where the responsibility for support-
ing the program would lie.
Key to the performance of a cost-benefit analysis of air quality
control strategies is some perspective relative to the suffi-
ciency of the analysis and an appreciation of the context in which
it is to be placed. For example, the cost analysis of a control
strategy may be relatively brief as the example shown for an
inspection/maintenance program, if we can be assured that the
most relevant research sources have been thoroughly investigated
and if it is certain that no other relevant impacts have been
overlooked. Similarly, while cost-benefit analyses will provide
important information for decision making, it may not always be
given the highest weight in selecting among alternatives. One may
find, for example, that residents within a polluted city will
consider their welfare or personal freedom in comparison to
residents in other urban areas as it is affected by control
strategies. This consideration is likely to be given greater
weight than any cost-benefit computations, or predictions of
future health problems that could result if strategies are not
implemented. While there is no standard that will allow one to
determine that the best job has been done in performing a cost-
benefit analysis, the following discussion of other economic
issues related to air quality control will hopefully provide some
additional background and perspective to the analysis procedure
described above.
Growth Issues
In dirty air regions, the potential for new industrial development
may be limited by the strategies required to attain air quality
standards. The EPA policy guide in such situations allows that
new plants may locate or expand if emission reductions will be
obtained from existing sources which would more than offset the
additional pollution contributed by the new facility (see "Emission
Offset Policy" in Appendix A for additional explanation of this
policy).
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TABLE 7
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Program:
Auto inspection and mandatory maintenance.
Operation:
Autos would be subject to yearly emission inspection requiring
the cars to be tuned to factory specifications. Autos would
be screened on the basis of a 40 percent rejection rate.
Consumer Costs:
Minimum cost: $5.00 for inspection sticker
Average minimum cost: $35.00 for small car tune-up
Average maximum cost: $65.00 for luxury car tune-up
Maximum cost: $600.00 - $1,000.00 for major engine overhaul
Cost Incidence:
The greatest economic burden for supporting the program would
fall on low income car owners who would tend to have older and
more difficult to maintain cars. Those owners who can just
afford to maintain a car given present circumstances might be
unablg to assume additional maintenance required under program
and, thereby, lose auto privilege.
Regional Impact:
Since local auto repair shops would implement program, monies
spent to comply with the program would be retained and circulated
regionally. Mandatory maintenance of autos could also act to
stimulate auto repair sector, at least in the short run. In
the long run, properly maintained autos may reduce major repair
bills and extend the life of the car, thus reducing car repairs
and new car sales.
Certified inspection stations would be required to purchase
emission analyst equipment; mechanics may also require
additional training to operate equipment and to make corrective
repairs. These costs would be recovered through the inspection
fees.
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Regardless of this policy, one of the most important criteria for
the evaluation of air quality strategies will be the effect such
strategies will have on the development potential of the region.
Consequently, the evaluation of planned industrial areas, railroad
and highway expansion, and utility expansion policies will need to
be carefully considered in order to construct a land use plan that
will accommodate or mitigate the pollution impacts of new industries.
Again, the regional comprehensive planning process is the key to
the analysis of air quality impacts associated with industrial
development. A positive approach of this kind can do much to avoid
costly problems in future years by defining areas with poor
dispersion characteristics, areas which will become "hot spots" if
growth is not diverted to other areas, and industries which over
the long run can produce additional pollution reductions that would
allow for additional industrial development.
Geographic Incidence of Controls
Another important criterion for the evaluation of control options
is the extent to which controls affect the economic potential or
competitiveness of one area within the Region in relation to other
areas. This issue will most likely be apparent in the consideration
of control strategies that affect central business districts (CBD's).
Since CBD's normally represent the areas of highest automobile and
commercial density, they are areas where pollution abatement
strategies may be most needed. Such controls, if they severely
restrict mobility or the expansion potential of commercial areas,
might hamper revitalization efforts in downtown areas or could place
CBD's at a competitive disadvantage with outlying shopping districts
that offer free parking, unrestricted access, etc.
On the other hand, an air quality control plan that provided strong
incentives for the use of mass transit facilities might favor
substantially the CBD area, since the central city district
(serves. asN the hub of the mass transit systems in most cities.
Outlying areas, with poor transit access, may find that they cannot
attract the customers or the employees they need to compete with
the central city.
Additionally, the application of indirect source regulations which
evaluate the design and scale of new commercial and business centers
may be sufficiently restrictive so as to provide existing developments
and CBD areas with an important competitive advantage over new
centers.
Some attempt must be made, therefore, to balance the incidence of
pollution strategies. The central business areas are an essential
community focus for most cities, and efforts to maintain and
revitalize these centers should be consistent with both economic
and air quality goals. This may imply a greater emphasis on the
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highway element of the design, the incorporation of malls or other
design features that increase both the attractiveness and air
quality of central city areas, or greater attention to specialized
transit facilities to reduce congestion within the CBD.
Income Group Incidence of Control Costs
Social issues, as we have seen in the previous section, are central
to the evaluation of air quality plans. The analysis of economic
costs and benefits among population groups within the region is one
of the more direct ways of determining the social impact of air
quality strategies. There are almost certainly population
consequences of every control option and the selection of alternatives
within each region should distribute cost burdens associated with
controls as equitably as possible. For example, will future site
areas for industrial expansion be more remote from population
centers and, thus, require transit facilities to allow greater
access of jobs to low income persons? What is the relation between
areas of highest population density and predicted ambient concentrations;
what efforts can be made to protect high density areas from the
health and welfare costs of high pollution concentrations?
These are but examples of a wide range of situations that could be
expected within each metropolitan area. The mapping of population
characteristics is equally important as the mapping of pollution
concentrations in the analysis process. Only through the systematic
analysis of demographic and income characteristics of the area's
population can a judgement be made of the population consequences
of control strategies. In addition, areawide strategies must also
be tested for cost equitability. Auto retrofit devices to control
pollution for older cars, for example, could be expected to affect
lower income groups disproportionately since they would be more
likely to own older cars.
Fiscal Impacts of Air Quality Control
Because Federal automotive emission controls and new source
performance standards will not necessarily provide for the
attainment of air quality goals, local governments in most
metropolitan areas will need to bear a portion of the cost of
implementing air quality control plans. Locally applied programs
may take the form of car-pooling programs, traffic improvements,
power plant modification, mass transit improvements, and any of a
large number of other alternatives. In analyzing the costs of
various options, at least three criteria will need to be addressed.
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The first criterion is the cost measure of each option in relation
to other options that might achieve the same result. A car-pooling
program, for example, may be a more cost-effective program for
reducing automotive pollution than a highway program designed to
improve traffic flows or an expanded bus system intended to increase
transit ridership. While evaluation methods can only approximate
the relation between dollars spent and pollution reduction, the
sunmary of transportation models in Chapter III indicates how
traffic volumes and traffic speeds are related to pollution levels,
for example; and the engineering studies of transportation
improvements relate construction programs and costs to changes in
vehicular patterns. Similar estimates can also be made based on
the expected ridership of commuters in car pools, or the increased
ridership expected from expanded bus service.
The second evaluation measure would be the cost consequences on
other capital improvement areas not directly related to the control
strategy. Does a greater dispersion of industrial areas, for
example, commit the city to a waste water collection system which
would significantly affect the area's water quality management plan?
Alternatively, will efforts directed towards achieving a nodal
development pattern reduce not only traffic and air pollution, but
reduce the utility costs of development as well? Such examples
point out the importance of not only identifying the costs to
other sectors other than air pollution control, but of identifying
opportunities for cost savings. Savings in energy costs are
closely related to reductions in air pollution and should be
quantified as part of the analysis process in order to achieve
wider support of control programs. Savings in the transportation
and utility sectors might also be realized through a carefully
developed program for air quality maintenance.
A third element in the fiscal analysis of control strategies will
be the evaluation of inter-jurisdictional differences in the
application of control programs. In general, one would hope that
a control program would be applied at a regional or air basin level
so that controls would not vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.
In areas such as land use and zoning, however, local governments
have maintained primary responsibility for regulation, and it can
be expected that many options will relate in some manner to these
areas. Failure to achieve a consistent set of programs may
increase the cost of government in one area greater than in another
that fails to adopt a comprehensive set of strategies. Such
inequities imply not only a greater fiscal burden for the responsible
community, but may reduce the competitiveness of one community in
relation to another in attracting new businesses or additional
residential growth. The ultimate result may be worsening of both
local air pollution problems and fiscal capabilities.
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Other Private Sector Costs
Not only are the development potential and development location of
private industries related to air pollution control programs, but
the actual costs of development may be affected by regional control
programs. These costs may be reflected in more stringent design
standards, through costly control devices, or through more lengthy
testing and review procedures which can delay construction. Again,
the analysis process must evaluate these factors and weigh the
costs of control in relation to the benefits to be derived. Much
can be done during this analysis pliase to coordinate the requirements
of air quality control with procedural requirements. Indirect
source controls, for example, could be designed to parallel other
review schedules for large developments and thus avoid the additional
costs of delay. Other locally applied strategies such as
transportation controls can be coordinated with developers* plans
to create a better urban environment and a more saleable development
than might otherwise be the case. In all cases a positive program
is required which is geared to the anticipation of unusual cost
impacts and the development of a control program which works to
mitigate or reduce the impacts of control programs on the private
sector.
Land Use Costs
One of the central arguments of this report is that land use
strategies offer one of the most positive means of dealing with
air pollution problems. By anticipating problems before land use
decisions are made, more appropriate land use decisions can be
formulated which largely avoid the economic consequences of air
pollution control.
There are now a number of examples of systematic attempts to
evaluate the economic and environmental costs of alternative
development patterns. One of the most noteworthy of these attempts
is represented by The Costs of Sprawl. 31 Its usefulness derives
in part.from the fact that a standard or typical building site
is assumed and relationships with particular governmental jurisdictions
are ignored. This allows the comparison of impacts from only one
independent variable: the form of development. Consequently, the
results and the methodology of the study can be generalized for a
large number of other cases where the primary intent is to evaluate
only the differences associated with development alternatives.
This report concludes that there are sizable savings in the utility
costs associated with clustered and higher density developments.
The data also demonstrate that there is less air pollution generated
through more compact and better planned developments. The report
also considers a number of other variables such as the energy costs
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associated with development, the costs to the private sector in
building various kinds of housing patterns and the water quality
impacts of various alternatives. Though parameters used to define
impacts and costs will vary from region to region, the report does
offer an excellent example of a methodology that is appropriate for
evaluating the economic consequences of various land use alternatives
constructed for air quality maintenance.
The Urban Land Institute has also sponsored detailed studies of
the cost and environmental impacts of development. Though the
PUD study is not a comparative analysis, it does offer a methodology
that allows the consideration of air pollution impacts of development
along with cost considerations.
Conclusion
In areas where pollution problems are not overwhelming and where
the political interest in pursuing yet another set of "bureaucratic"
controls aimed at air pollution is also less than overwhelming,
cost analyses will be a very important part of any effort to
encourage a positive approach to air quality planning. As an
initial effort, attention must be focused most heavily on those
control strategies that offer cost advantages to businesses and
individuals. Air quality strategies that are aimed at conserving
the use of fuels, for example, offer a number of cost benefits in
addition to the improvements expected in air quality. Car pooling
represents another strategy which is relatively inexpensive to
implement, particularly with funding assistance from DOT, and that
offers savings for commuters in operating their automobiles. Other
actions, such as those presented in the Transportation Systems
Management Element of regional transportation plans, also offer
opportunities to reduce the capital investment requirements for
new transportation systems. Those actions that offer multiple
advantages should be given greatest weight in the development
of an air quality maintenance plan. An incremental approach which
focuses at the outset on the most cost effective strategies for
controlling air pollution will hopefully offer the greatest long
run opportunity for constructing a comprehensive and publically
acceptable set of air quality maintenance actions.
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PLAN IMPLEMENTATION
The final element in the planning process outlined in Figure 1 is
Plan Implementation. This element attempts to organize desired
and appropriate land use and air quality strategies into some
framework to give direct guidance on how to proceed.
The integration of air quality criteria in this case can best be
structured in terms of the broader concept of urban systems
management, or growth management. In the introduction to the three
volume series of papers addressing the management and control of
growth published by the Urban Land Institute, managed growth is
defined as:
"The utilization by government of a variety of traditional and
evolving techniques, tools, plans, and activities to purposefully
guide local patterns of land use, including the manner, location,
and nature of development. Ideally, managed growth consists of
a well-integrated, efficient, and affirmative system where
choices or decisions are made explicitly and with full knowledge
of the variables and trade-offs involved, and where the programs
are coordinated in furtherance of clear community growth and
land use objectives." 33
Though the concept described above applies well to a comprehensive
planning approach to air pollution, the impact of Air Quality
Maintenance Plans on local planning, administration, and management
will almost certainly mark a major departure from traditional forms
of urban management. Though other programs have had a significant
effect on the way environmental issues are treated, e.g., National
Environmental Policy Act, Section "208" of the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act Amendments, perhaps none is as far reaching
in terms of its implications for urban growth and development as is
the air quality planning process. In the large number of urban
areas where changes in automotive and industrial technology will
not be sufficient to achieve national air quality standards, basic
changes in the form, intensity, and distribution of urban activities
may be required. As we have noted, these changes will have
significant social, economic, and political impacts. Technically
there are a large number of alternatives for making cities more
efficient and less polluted; however, these alternatives will
undoubtedly change the way individuals behave or view themselves,
and we can expect progress in improving the urban environment to
be at timesdiscouragingly slow, hotly disputed, and unnecessarily
compromised.
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From an urban management point of view, the implementation of air
quality plans must not only deal fairly with this basic phenomenon
of social change but it must organize and coordinate urban activities
in a way that has been seldom achieved in this county. To a
considerable degree, the problem of integration comes from the
inability to find the institutional mechanism to establish efficient
communication and to resolve issues. An attempt to organize air
quality management within the existing framework of urban systems
might be looked at as a Quixotic dream which can only serve to make
our cities that much more unmanageable. On the other hand, such an
effort might offer a refreshing and much needed new approach to urban
management and provide the framework for the integration and coordination
of environmental programs that has been sorely missing.
Obviously, management requirements will vary substantially depending
on the kind of program elected to control air quality. An inspection/
maintenance program for motor vehicles, for example, implies a much
different kind of administration than the one that would be required
for development reviews through indirect source regulations or a
parking control plan as part of a Transportation Control Plan. This
chapter will focus on the kinds of management alternatives appropriate
for dealing with those control programs involving development, land
use, transportation, and other comprehensive planning issues.
This approach recognizes the intimate relationship of air quality to
the performance of other urban systems. These relationships have
been described in Chapter I of this report; in summary, we can say
that the operating policies of Federal agencies now require consistency
of effort among air quality, water quality, housing, and transportation
planning. It can also be expected that emerging policy areas such as
energy will also explicitly require that consistency be achieved with
air quality goals.
Despite these recently formulated requirements for plan integration,
the history of urban systems management until these recent years has
been more often centered on the formation of single purpose agencies.
The tremendous problem of coordination and synchronization that has
resulted from such a structure has long been recognized: each bureaucracy
or organization attempts to achieve its own ends or accomplish its
narrowly defined mandate, often regardless or in spite of other
legitimate organizational objectives. An additional complication is
that larger metropolitan areas not only have greater air pollution
problems, but also have a larger number of management agencies. In
the San Francisco area, for example, each of the following agencies
play a significant role in defining development patterns and setting
the environmental limits to such development:
ABAG The Association of Bay Area Governments acts as the area-wide
council of governments for comprehensive planning. Member-
ship is strictly voluntary.
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MTC
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission is primarily
responsible for transportation planning.
BCDC The Bay Conservation and Development Commission is charged
with preservation and regulation of development along the
San Francisco Bay which touches several jurisdictions in the
region.
BAAPCD The Bay Area Air Pollution Control District is charged with
the restoration and preservation of air quality.
BASSA The Bay Area Sanitary Sewer Services Agency proves regional
waste water systems.
BAWQCB The Bay Area Water Quality Control Board is responsible for
maintaining water quality standards.
CALTRANS CALTRANS is the basic highway planning agency within the
State structure for the Bay Area.
BARTD The Bay Area Rapid Transit District provides communter rapid
transit to the region.
In addition to these agencies, there are two Coastal Commissions for
preserving the coastline within the Bay Area, a number of other
transit or transportation districts, and more than twenty cities arid
countieis within the region. In addition to different systems
assigned to each of these agencies, each has a different management
function: planning, regulation, operations. Though each of these
organizations is well intentioned, the time and effort needed to
interact and coordinate is not programmed well enough to provide
effective linkages. ^
A 1974 report by the California Air Resources Board also found
"a noticeable lack of coordination between air pollution control
districts and local planning agencies". As of 1974, some local
governments had never spoken to their local air pollution control
districts. ^
Organizational Requirements
The preceding discussion has pointed to one of the critical require-
ments of a structure for air quality management: it must be
comprehensive in scope. Only in the smallest metropolitan areas
could one expect an air quality control strategy involving only a
single agency to be sufficient to attain and preserve air quality.
Even if this were the case, there must be some mechanism for ensuring
that the air pollution control strategy is consistent with other
planning objectives, e.g., energy and transportation efficiency.
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A second major requirement of the management system is that it have
the regulatory and administrative powers to ensure compliance with
the Air Quality Maintenance Plan and the State Implementation Plan.
It must be able to achieve its goals without the crippling pressures
of conflicting local interests. The managing organization must not
only be able to promulgate regulations, but be able to offer both
positive and negative sanctions to ensure compliance. Finally, the
organization must be adequately funded to manage the plan and it
must be professionally staffed. Each of these points, though
apparently obvious, can have a crippling effect on an implementation
program if omitted. Funding of the South Coast Air Quality Manage^
ment District resulted only after a suit was filed by the State of
California and the State's Air Resources Board and a subsequent
decision by the California Supreme Court which ordered Los Angeles
County to provide $2.3 million to the Management District in fiscal
1978. Voluntary agreements among agencies, though an important
part of the planning process, will not be sufficient to ensure that
air quality standards are achieved. This implies a more rigid
structure defining responsibilities among agencies, and a more
rigorous system to account for and control the air quality impacts
of various urban systems.
A third requirement of air quality management is that it be
prescriptive as well as prohibitive or regulatory in defining the
program for achieving air quality standards. Such an approach not
only assures that the decisions of the management organization will
be predictable, but in fact establishes the rationale for making
decisions. The prescriptive aspect of the program can take a number
of forms, all of which may be important. The development of a
comprehensive plan which establishes how land use, transportation,
water systems, and other systems can best be organized to achieve
air quality goals is a major component of a positive approach in
decision making. The management organization may also be required
to formulate development standards or performance criteria for
effective control of individual land use decisions; such standards
might be incorporated as part of indirect source regulations, for
example. The management agency could also provide direction by
developing a handbook of "best management practices" for controlling
particulate problems, paralleling the water quality guidelines for
controlling non-point sources of water pollution. Such examples
are intended to reduce the number of "after the fact" judgments of
whether or not development decisions are appropriate and to define
more clearly the actions required by each of the actors in the
overall program for air pollution control.
A fourth set of organizational requirements relate to public
accessibility and accountability. While agencies must be free to
override considerations of special interests that may in some way
be adversely affected by regulation, they must also reflect the
local consensus of how best to control air pollution problems.
This raises a number of questions regarding the makeup of the
governing membership of the management agency: whether they are to
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be appointed or elected, and who appoints or elects the membership.
Regardless of the constitution, public accessibility must be a key
organizational feature of the management program. One commonly
employed procedure for ensuring that persons aggrieved by manage-
ment decisions are treated fairly is to provide for administrative
appeals. Such appeals are normally directed to a State or regional
commission created to administer the law; failure to reach an
agreement through this procedure would normally send the affected
parties to the courts.
Such formal procedures, of course, need not be the only alternative
pursued for increasing public ihvolvement. Regular, open meetings
within the metropolitan area can serve to keep the media and the
citizenry aware of the status of programs. Seminars, public forums,
television presentations, and other educational programs should
also be developed as part of a continuous effort to elicit and
maintain support for air quality programs.
In attempting to design for efficient management, the criteria
outlined above should be of primary concern in evaluating
organizational alternatives. It is most probable that no single
alternative will offer all the features one would hope for in
designing a management program. While one might also hope that a
consistent management scheme be applied to most air quality programs,
it is apparent that organizations and governments differ substantially
among States. The selection of a management system within each air
quality control region will depend on the nature of the air pollution
problem, the suitability of local agencies for adaptation to new
programs, the willingness of local governments to take responsibility
for environmental management, and the support that can be expected
from other key agencies.
The following outline of State, regional, and local organizations
generally covers the range of alternatives that exist for air
quality management. A number of sources have investigated the
development of each of these alternatives for managing environmental
problems. ^
Vermont and Hawaii, for example, have developed strong State codes
for controlling land use and environmental decision making. The
Tahoe Regional Planning Agency, the Adirondack Park Agency, and the
Twin Cities Metropolitan Council (Minneapolis-St. Paul) are
examples of regional agencies that have been delegated special
authority by the State to manage environmental systems. Boulder,
Colorado, Ramapo, New York, and Petaluma, California have each
developed strict local criteria for regulating and directing land
use activities. None of these is without controversy; each, however,
has demonstrated an innovative and aggressive approach to handling
pressing environmental problems. The advantages and disadvantages
of each of these approaches, along with a review of special purpose
regulatory agencies, are summarized in the following outline.
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REGIONAL RESOURCES AGENCY [SPECIAL PURPOSE REGULATORY BODIES)
Advantages
A regional resources agency could be structured to handle
major environmental systems, so as to consolidate the review
and permit process and to reduce the number of bureaucratic
agencies. Major candidates for such a program would be air
quality, water quality, and energy. The Washington Environmental
Coordination Procedures Act provides for such a joint review
procedure in the State of Washington though regulatory agencies
have not been consolidated.
Such an organization could be combined with a regional service
authority to guarantee that both public and private development
decisions are coordinated with respect to environmental
standards. Such an authority might include operating responsi^
bilities for sewage systems, urban drainage control, solid waste
management, regional parks and recreational facilities, and
regional transportation facilities (airports, bus lines).
A regional resources agency could be self sustaining through
delegated taxing powers.
The organization, if governed by local elected or appointed
officials, would relate most directly to the lowest levels of
of government.
Disadvantages
Such an organization represents a new layer of government with
regulatory powers independent from the operation of local
governments.
The political feasibility of the taxing plan is uncertain.
Such a management plan runs the risk of delegating the authority
for environmental issues to a single "czar".
STATE RESOURCES DEPARTMENT
Advantages
States now bear the principal regulatory authority for air
quality, water quality, and energy programs. A better coordinated
or consolidated structure at the State level could thus provide
a consistent and comprehensive approach throughout the air
quality control regions.
States have a broader tax base to draw upon to support environ-
mental programs.
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States may often have a greater store of expertise that can
be applied to resolve complex issues involving a number of local
governments.
States could regionalize their resources department, thus
providing a greater measure of local participation.
The consolidation of permitting procedures will require that
all relevant facts and opinions be brought to bear on development
proposals and will increase the certainly with which developers
and private citizens can plan their affairs.
Disadvantages
State authority may often overlap, authority may not be clear
among various environmental programs, permit procedures often
differ. To add rigorous air quality management requirements
may only serve to complicate an already confusing array of
State programs.
States lack authority in development of zoning, subdivision,
transportation, and other programs at the local level which may
be critically important for developing an efficient air quality
control program.
Such an alternative would represent a greater State intervention
in local affairs.
REGIONAL COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS
Advantages
Councils of Governments represent to the greatest degree local
interests through cooperative government.
COGs have broad planning responsibilities in a number of
environmental areas that mesh well with requirements for air
quality maintenance planning.
COGs may prepare long range transportation plans and be
designated the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the
allocation of Federal highway monies. Such an organization
would be well suited for managing the transportation control
plan required as part of the total air quality control program.
COGs have review authority in the allocation of other Federal
monies through the A-95 review process and could ensure that
other development programs are consistent with air quality plans.
Such a management plan would be consistent with Federal encourage-
ment of regional agencies.
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Disadvantages
- COGs typically have no regulatory or enforcement powers and
are essentially advisory to local governments. Assignment of
regulating powers by State would imply "a major shift in COG
functions and duties of elected officials.
COGs have limited funding sources and must rely on voluntary
contributions from local governments.
- COGs have no control over local zoning and subdivision,
beyond their advisory capacity.
The A-95 review process does not carry with it sufficient
authority for effective or mandatory compliance with regional
policies.
- An expanded role for COGs in air quality control would create
an organization that might be competitive with both State
and local governmental functions.
- COGs may often serve as the Metropolitan Planning Organization
for transportation planning, and could be in the position of
acting as its own judge with respect to evaluation of air
quality impacts.
EXPANDED LOCAL AUTHORITIES
Advantages
Locally constituted agencies are most sensitive to local
conditions.
Such organizations are more accessible to the citizenry and
generally must demonstrate greater accountability to the public.
- Local administrative and enforcement agencies are already in
place.
An organization mandated by local elected officials would have
more direct, and therefore, more efficient control over
operating agencies such as public works, utility department,
transit system, zoning and subdivision review.
Disadvantages
- Local government has limited power to control extraterritorial
impact of pollution.
Local governments are often dependent on continued growth and
could not effectively exercise discretion in handling of
environmental issues.
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Local governments would be in a position of ruling on the
adequacy of its own operation of facilities.
Local expertise is often absent, particularly ill small
communities, for handling complex environmental problems.
Conclusion
Implementation of any of the management alternatives described
here would disturb the inertia of numerous State and local decision
making processes. However, the proliferation of environmental and
land use controls at all levels of government has greatly increased
the complexity of the development process. At some point, the need
for greater efficiency and for simplification of the regulatory
and management structure must outweigh the relative ease with which
a new, simple purpose regulatory agency can be constructed. This
observation would seem appropriate to the consideration of air
quality management alternatives, and it is concluded that such an
approach will offer the most effective and most efficient framework
for air quality plan implementation.
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CONCLUSION
For those regions that are approaching or have exceeded national
ambient air quality standards, the systematic consideration of air
quality criteria in the comprehensive planning process is a
prerequisite to the development of effective air quality control
strategies. This process does not imply, however, a massive, single
purposed effort on the part of regional planning agencies. It is
rather a logical extension and derivative of those analyses normally
required to assess other region-wide problems such as transportation
systems and water quality. Particularly for those areas undertaking
a detailed study of water quality management issues with Federal
assistance through the "208" program, the opportunities that exist
for coordination and parallel planning activities simplify greatly
the demands of constructing a comprehensive air quality planning
program. This coordinated planning process allows for greater
administrative efficiency through parallel planning and review
procedures, it allows for the more immediate resolution of problem
areas through parallel analysis and impact assessment, and it will
allow for greater system efficiency through the design and
implementation of strategies directed to multiple planning objectives.
The basic framework for this process is provided through the land use
planning and forecasting tools. Land use models serve to organize
and simplify the policy and information requirements for constructing
future land use projections. They also allow the analyst to construct
a number of land use, population, and employment distributions or
growth scenarios; this allows the comparison and evaluation of a
number of growth alternatives and allows the selection of most
appropriate land use policies for satisfying regional goals and
objectives. These goals and objectives are typically stated in
the form of more specific development criteria and include social,
economic, and environmental measures which can be used to provide
a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of growth alternatives.
Air quality criteria are provided through national and state standards
for air quality. The regional evaluation of air quality impacts is
constructed using a set of air quality models which forecast ambient
pollution concentrations based on the region's meteorology and the
expected levels of urban activities. Urban activities are
associated with the generation of air pollutants through a series of
emission factors which are compiled in the emission inventory. The
air pollution models replicate the diffusion and dispersion of these
emissions on a regional scale and can be used to locate future problem
areas and to evaluate the impact that alternative land use configurations
can have on the reduction of pollution problems.
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In general, one would find that there are limits to the pollution
reductions that can be achieved through land use strategies. This
is related, in large part, to the fact that the form of metropolitan
areas have largely been determined by transportation networks, the
location of major employment centers, and the installation of other
major infrastructure elements. These systems are relatively inelastic
and serve to constrain the alternatives that exist for future develop-
ment. Regions that are experiencing air pollution problems, therefore,
will characteristically need to consider more specific air quality
control strategies in order to control the sources of air pollution.
These strategies, because they affect the transportation sector,
the uses of energy, or elements of technology related to industry,
are also intimately tied to the performance of urban systems. These
system relationships can also be evaluated using qualitative and
quantitative tools outlined in this report. Two of the more complex
analysis areas—social and economic analyses--have been considered
in greater detail in order to demonstrate an appropriate methodology
for evaluating these impacts.
Finally, this report has outlined the salient issues in the
implementation of an air quality maintenance program and has argued
that effective air quality control will depend to a substantial
degree on the efficiency and comprehensive nature of the management
program.
These considerations, if conscientiously applied, can provide for
the successful integration of air quality in a comprehensive planning
process. Inevitably, there will be cases where a region cannot hope
to optimize all of the standards or criteria which it must consider
in making decisions. In systems analysis terms, the integration
process outlined here is a process of "global-optimization" in which
trade-offs must be considered in order to achieve some balance
among financial, social, and environmental constraints. Regional
plan management must provide a land use system that is fiscally
efficient, workable, and rewarding for the private sector. At the
same time, it must be environmentally sound and work for the
maintenance of a quality of life we all cherish.
However, the framework outlined here cannot be achieved by a
"business as usual" attitude. It will require foresight and
dedication on the part of decision makers, and flexibility and
innovation on the part of planners. Though it may seem unreasonable
to make decisions now that will be best appreciated twenty-five
years from now, rapidly changing technology, energy balances, income
distributions, and a host of other factors require that proper
decisions be made now if we hope to maintain the quality of life
and character of cities that we all deserve.
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APPENDIX A
GLOSSARY OF AIR POLLUTION TERMS
Adiabatic Occuring without gain or loss of heat. In a dry
atmosphere, the adiabatic lapse rate (rate of
temperature decrease with increase in elevation) is
one degree Centigrade per 100 meters. When the
actual lapse rate is greater than this theoretical
rate, a parcel of air that begins to rise continues
to do so, and the atmospheric condition is called
"unstable". If, however, the actual lapse rate is
less than the adiabatic rate, the surface air remains
near the surface and the atmospheric condition is
called "stable".
Aerosol
A dispersion of solid or liquid particles of micro-
scopic size in a gaseous media. Examples are fog,
smoke, and mist.
Air Quality
Control
Regions
Pursuant to provisions of the Clean Air Act amend-
ments, States were required to identify areas that
currently exceed any of the national air quality
standards or that may have the potential for violating
standards based on projected growth in the area. In
almost all cases, Air Quality Control Regions
correspond to County boundaries or groups of Counties.
Air Quality
Maintenance
Plan
The Natural Resources Defense Council and various
other petitioners challenged the EPA Administrator's
apiproval of State Impelentation Plan on several
grounds, including the contention that the plans
approved were not adequate to ensure maintenance of
the National Ambient Air Quality Standards once they
were attained. The Court ruled in NRDC v.EPA (475F.
2d 968, D.C. Cir. 1973) that State Implementation
Plans were in fact inadequate and ordered the adminis-
trator to review SIP provisions for maintenance of
air quality. The administrator determined that no
SIP had adequately analyzed the impact of growth.
Air Quality Maintenance Plans are intended as
revisions to the SIP specifying how standards can
be maintained over the next ten years.
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Ambient Air
APRAC
Ambient air refers to free, atmospheric air. The
term "ambient" is to distinguish this class of controls
from those that may apply to industrial plants, public
smoking, etc.
APRAC is a regional dispersion model for line sources
which can be used to predict one hour or eight hour
concentrations of CO at specified receptors near major
traffic segments.
Carbon
Monoxide
CDM
Cold Start
Diffusion
Dispersion
Emission
Charges
(CO) Carbon monoxide is formed from the incomplete
combustion of carbonaceous fuels; the automobile is
the primary source of this gas in an urban environment.
Carbon monoxide is a poisonous gas which has a strong
affinity for hemoglobin, reducing the bloodstream's
capacity to carry oxygen.
Climatological Dispersion Model. CDM is a Gaussian
plume model using frequency distributions of annual
meteorological conditions. It predicts annual
arithmetic mean concentrations at any number of
receptor sites.
A cold start occurs when an automobile engine is
started after a period of non-use. When an engine is
cold, the carburetor does not effectively vaporize the
gasoline before it is injected into the combustion
cylinders. A phenomenon of "Quenching" also occurs
which relates to the cooling of the combustion flame
as it contacts the cylinder wall; this further reduces
the combustion efficiency. These factors lead to
greatly increased exhaust emissions, especially
hydrocarbons during the warm-up period.
Mixing of pollutants with surrounding air by means of
random particle or molecular motion.
Transport of pollutants by atmospheric currents.
(Often used interchangeably with diffusion).
Fees or taxes proportional to the emission rate of a
given air contaminant may be levied to offset the
public cost of air pollution sources. Special taxes,
for example, reduced real estate taxes while land is
used for low intensity purposes, or other fiscal
incentives have also been suggested as measures that
can be designed to maintain clean air standards.
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Emission (also dubbed "unit area emission quotas")
Density This regulatory measure assigns specific, maximum
Zoning allowable area emission rates to different classes
of land use. This measure represents the air
pollution control analog of traditional building
density limits. For example, a emission density
zone might establish an upper limit of three tons
per year of hydrocarbon emissions per acre of land
in areas zoned for heavy industry; an industry
with controlled emissions of 1.5 tons of hydro-
carbons per year would require a site of at least
one/half acre designated "heavy industry". Emission
density zoning also offers a regulatory and admin-
istrative framework compatible with the concept of
transferable emission rights. Using the previous
example, such a plan would allow an owner of two
acres of land in an area designated "heavy industry"
to sell or otherwise transfer emission rights
equivalent to six tons of hydrocarbons per year to
owners of adjacent properties.
Emission In areas that currently exceed national ambient
"Offset" standards, the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments make
Policy law a policy for the location of major stationary
sources (Section 173). The most controversial
feature centers around whether or not the regula-
tion is in effect a "no growth" control of dirty
air regions.
Section 173 specifies that if a proposed source
would exacerbate an existing violation of ambient
air quality standards, then they are subject to a
preconstruction review. Construction approval may
only be granted if the following conditions are met:
1. The new source is required to meet an emission
limitation which specifies the lowest achievable
emission rate. In no event could the specified
rate exceed existing emission standards for new
sources.
2. The new source (and other sources controlled by
the applicant) must be in compliance with all
SIP requirements or in compliance with an
approved schedule and timetable for meeting
SIP provisions or enforcement orders.
3. Emission reductions ("offsets") from existing
sources in the area of the proposed source are
required to provide a reduction in total
emissions allowable under the SIP, in order
to represent reasonable progress attainment
of national ambient standards.
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Episode
The occurrence of stagnant air masses during which air
pollutants accumulate, so that the population is exposed
to an elevated concentration of airborne contaminants.
Fugitive
Dust
Hot Soak
Federal Motor The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 mandated progres-
Vehicle sively more stringent emission standards in light duty
Control motor vehicles for hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide
Program (CO), and nitrogen oxides (N0X). These percentages
were translated by the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments
into the following numerical standards:
HC 0.4grams/mile
CO 3.4grams/mile
N0x 1.Ograms/mile
The 90% requirements have been suspended a number of
times by EPA and Congress. Interim standards have
achieved an 82% reductions in these pollutants.
Fugitive dust includes solid particules released into
the atmosphere by natural forces or by mechanical
processes such as crushing, grinding, milling, demolishing,
or sweeping.
The hot soak occurs at the end of an automotive trip
after the engine is shut off. When the engine is turned
off, the gasoline remaining in the carburetor or the
connecting system that would have been burned had the
engine continued running is instead vaporized by the
engine heat and escapes to the atmosphere.
The HIWAY model estimates one hour CO concentrations
at any receptor location downwind of a highway segment
(line source). The HIWAY model is often used in project
level analysis (a new roadway, bridge, etc.) because of
its simulation of a small area with detailed input data.
(HC) A number of hydrocarbon compounds are emitted from
automobile exhausts and crankcase emissions. The
olefins, one important series of hydrocarbons, participate
in a complex set of reactions in the presence of nitrogen
dioxide and sunlight to produce ozone, aldehydes, and a
variety of other organic compounds that contribute to
smog.
Indirect (variously called complex sources)
Sources Indirect sources represent those facilities that do not
themselves produce pollutants but which generate or
attract vehicular activities resulting in air contamination.
Indirect sources may include parking lots, highways,
shopping centers, and apartment complexes.
HIWAY
Hydrocarbons
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Indirect States may elect as part of the State Implementation
Source Plan to include regulations which would mandate reviews
Review of the planning, siting, and design of auto related
facilities. This preconstruction review would evaluate
the air quality impacts of the major developments and
could cause them to be redesigned or relocated if they
would result in new air quality standard violations or
worsened existing violations. Although the EPA has
suspended application of the national regulations on
indirect sources, States have now implemented their
own regulations controlling indirect sources of air
pollution.
Inversion A layer of air in which temperature increases with
height. Because colder, heavier air is trapped near
ground level, inversion conditions are associated with
increases in air pollution and episode conditions.
Line
Sources
Modal Split
Mode
Line sources of air pollution include streets and
highways which generate air pollutants as a result
of vehicular traffic.
The calculation of the proportion of total person
trips which will use available transportation modes.
Method of transportation, such as bus, auto, walking,
rapid transit, taxi, or bicycle.
National
Ambient Air
Quality
Standards
Under Section 109 of the Clean Air Act of 1970, the
Administrator of the EPA was required to set two sets
of standards; primary and secondary. Primary standards
are ambient standards based on criteria documents and
allowing an adequate margin of safety adequate to
protect human health. Secondary standards are standards
which are adequate to protect the public welfare
(visibility, quality of life, property, plant life, and
similar values).
Pursuant to the Act, the Administrator of the EPA has
established standards for six major pollutants or
classes of pollutants: hydrocarbons, sulphur oxides,
photochemical oxidants, carbon monoxide, oxides of
nitrogen, and particulates.
Nitrogen (N0X) There are six known oxides of nitrogen, two of
Oxides which are considered as air pollutants. Nitric oxide,
the primary product, is associated principally with
the internal combustion engine and is formed when
combustion takes place at a sufficiently high temperature
to cause reaction between the nitrogen and oxygen of
the air. Nitric oxide may be coverted to nitrogen
dioxide through photochemical or other processes;
nitrogen dioxide is considerably more toxic and is the
only widespread pollutant gas that is colored.
96
-------
Particulates
Particulates are finely divided particles of matter
or dust that occur from unpaVed roads, bare or
stripped ground areas, industrial processes, and
in other ways. Apart from visual and aesthetic
effects, particulates can be a serious pollutant
because of respiratory effects.
Para Transit
Photochemical
Oxidants
PLUM
Para transit refers to a class of vehicles apart
from conventional bus transit. It is usually
distinguished from transit either by smaller
vehicles or the provision of demand responsive
services. Examples are mini-buses, multiple
occupancy taxies, jitneys (small vehicles on fixed
street routes), van pools, and subscription buses.
Photochemical oxidants are a series of compounds
which are formed in the presence of sunlight and
other air contaminants, primarily auto emissions.
Ozone is one of the most toxic of these compounds
and is responsible for more injury to vegetation
than any other air pollutant. In some species,
damage can occur at ozone concentrations of a few
parts per hundred million; such concentrations
have been observed more than 70 miles from large
metropolitan sources.
Projective Land Use Model. PLUM is a computer
model designed to simulate development patterns in
an urban region. The function of PLUM is to
distribute a specific amount of future growth to
zones within the region given specific sets of
growth policies, development constraints, the
existing distribution of activities, and other
information. Data generated through PLUM form
the basis for the area source inventory component
of the air quality model system.
Plume
A column of smoke.
Prevention of
Significant
Deterioration
Final EPA rules for the prevention of significant
deterioration of air quality were promulgated on
November 27, 1974, with the effective date of the
regulation January 6, 1975. EPA's specific reg-
ulations were upheld by the D.C. Court of Appeals
in 1976. Nevertheless, the non-significant
deterioration provisions continue to be a contro-
versial area within the clean air program, and
this concept has been restated and reaffirmed in
the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments.
97
-------
As presently constituted, regulations for the
prevention of significant deterioration apply
only to sulfur dioxide and suspended particulate
matter. Section 166 of the Clean Air Act Amendments
calls for the EPA to promulgate regulations by
August, 1979 to prevent the significant deteriora-
tion of pollutant levels of hydrocarbons, carbon
monoxide, photochemical oxidants, and nitrogen
oxides. All land areas with air quality better
than national standards are subject to an area
classification procedure. There are three classes
of areas, each with a different allowance for
increases in ambient air pollution concentrations.
A Class I designation applies to areas where almost
any deterioration of current air quality would be
considered significant (wilderness areas, national
parks, etc.). Class II applies to areas in which
deterioration normally accompanying moderate growth
would be allowable. A Class III designation would
apply to areas where substantial energy or indus-
trial development is expected and where increases
in ambient concentrations up to national standards
would be allowed. States are primarily responsible
for determining area classifications.
Primary National primary standards for air quality define
Standards levels of air quality which the Administrator of
the Environmental Protection Agency judges are
necessary to protect public health.
Rollback
Secondary
Standards
Rollback is a "desk top" model that allows the
estimation of future pollution concentrations (at
the worst site in the region) given a set of emis-
sion inventories for the future year investigated.
Rollback assumes that changes in air pollution
concentrations in a region are proportional to
changes in emissions.
National secondary standards for air quality define
levels of air quality judged necessary to protect
the public welfare from the adverse effects of air
pollution.
98
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Section 109j
Section 109j, Title 23, USC (added Section 136b
of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1970, P.L. 91-
605) states,
"The Secretary, after consultation with the
Administrator of the EPA shall develop and
promulgate guidelines t6 assure that highways
constructed pursuant to this title are con-
sistent with an approved plan for the imple-
mentation of any ambient air quality standard
for any air quality control region designated
pursuant to the Clean Air Act, as amended."
The Senate Public Works Committee produced the
1970 amendments to Clean Air Act and the 1970 Fed-
eral Aid Highway Act. Section 109j was added to
ensure consistency between the two acts.
The guidelines that have been developed to implement
Section 109j require an annual review of Federal
assisted highways to ensure their consistency with
the SIP.
Spider
Network
State
Imp1ementat ion
Plan (SIP)
Stationary
Sources
A network based on straight-line connections
between centroids of urban districts or zones.
Spider networks are sometimes used in preference
to networks simulating roadway or transit systems
in order to reduce computer running time and to
simplify data inputs to the modeling process.
Section 110 of the 1970 Amendments to the Clean
Air Act required each State to formulate a plan
that will provide for the attainment, maintenance,
and enforcement of the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards for each of the Air Quality Control
Regions within the State. The Act required the
plan to specify strategies for meeting both primary
and secondary standards in each of the control
regions.
(also called point sources or direct air contamina-
tion sources)
Stationary sources of pollutants are facilities
that are fixed in place and which release pollu-
tants as part of the operation of the facility.
These would include power plants, cement batching
plants, and other kinds of industrial operations.
EPA defines point sources as any stationary facility
which has the potential of emitting 100 tons per
year or more of any one pollutant for which there
is a national standard.
99
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Sulfur
Dioxide
Sulfur dioxide is the most common of the sulfur
oxides that occur as pollutants in the atmosphere.
This is a product of combustion of fossil fuels
containing sulfur, primarily coal and fuel oil.
Sulfur dioxide combines with water in the atmos-
phere or a respiratory tract to form sulfurous and
sulfuric acids. These acids attack materials,
plants, and lung tissues.
Traffic
Assignment
A modeling process to predict the number of trips
traversing specific roadway or transit route seg-
ments. Trips from all origins to all destinations
are assigned to specific routes, based on travel
time or travel costs.
Transportation
Control Plan
(TCP)
A transportation control plan is a plan that
describes the transportation control measures
that will be required in order to achieve and
maintain ambient air quality standards.
TSP
Total Suspended Particulates.
yg/m~
Micro grams per cubic meter. A micro gram is
one millionth of a gram.
VMT
Vehicle Miles Traveled.
100
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TABLE 8
FEDERAL AND STATE AIR POLLUTION STANDARDS
EPA
PRIMARY
EPA
SECONDARY
COLO
1973
•
COLO
1976
•
COLO
1980
•
POLLUTANT
AVERAGING
TIME
(At typical conditions)***
(At typical conditions)
***
Ug/m3
ppm
Ug/m3
ppm
Ug/m3
ppm
Ug/m3
ppm
Ug/m 3
ppm
CARBON MONOXIDE
1 Hr.
8 Hr.
40,000
10,000
35
9
40,000
10,000
35
9
HYDROCARBONS
3 Hr.
(6 to 9 a.m.)
160
0.24
160
0.24
NITROGEN OXIDES
(ARITH. MEAN)
Year
100
0.05
100
0.05
PARTICULATES
24 Hr.
260
150
200
180
150
(ARITH. MEAN)
Year
70
55
45
(GE0M. MEAN)
Year
75
60
PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS
1 Hr.
160
0.08
SULFUR DIOXIDE
1 Hr.**
3 Hr.
1300
0.5
1300
0.5
800
0.28
300
0.10
24 Hr.
365
0.14
300
0.10
150
0.050
55
0.020
(ARITH. MEAN)
Year
80
0.03
60
0.020
25
0.0090
10
0.0040
*Maximum permitted once per year for indicated averaging time.
**Maximum permitted once per month.
***To convert values in ppm to ug/m^, multiply ppm x p5 where p = ^ , m is the molecular weight of the pollutant in e/m
^ 3 0 ' o
p is pressure in millibars, R is the gas constant (0.0831436 mb - m /mol - K), and T is temperature in K.
For example, at a temperature of 50° F. (283.15° K) in Colorado Springs, p = 935.0 and p = 2137.1. At sea
level at 50° F., pnn = 1246.7, pcn = 2754.6. * 00 S02
LU oU 2
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APPENDIX B POLLUTION INDEX 37
For long range planning it was desired to develop indices for each
PLUM zone that describe the air pollution in each zone and the
cumulative effect on the population of each zone of concentrations
of all the pollutants. Both indices would relate the concentrations
to standard values.
The numerical range of the index was to be broad enough to encompass
and distinguish various possible situations yet small enough to give
the user a tool that summarized, rather than detailed, the importance
to air quality of alternative land use plans, zoning decisions, or
judgements on individual projects.
Basic Description of the Index
To qualify the relative importance to health and welfare of predicted
concentrations of each atmospheric pollutant, the concentrations
were weighted inversely by their standards. These standards were
determined after evaluation of the health and welfare effects that
were summarized in the criteria documents of the EPA. The index
is described by writing a term for each receptor as:
where i refers to each pollutant and j refers to each receptor
point in a PLUM zone, C is the predicted concentration, and
is the ambient annual average standard given in Table 8. This
equation is similar to that used in the Oak Ridge work.
lij = Cqj/Si)
and is then summed over all pollutants to give:
h = S(Cij/Si)
i
Pollutant
TABLE 9
AMBIENT ANNUAL AVERAGE STANDARDS
Standard (yg/m^) Backgrounds (yg/m^)
CO
HC
no2
3240
28.3
100
60
44.4
93.5
1.54
0.427
29
2
Particulate Matter
*No appropriate factor for hydrocarbons was found.
102
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This term was scaled to have convenient numerical values of lower
and upper limits by writing it as:
Xj = a Z(Cij/Si) "
where a and n are constants determined by setting the first
equal to background concentrations given in Table 8 and then equal
to their standards, and letting I = 10 and 100 for each case. It
is assumed here that the background concentration of each pollutant
is constant over the Region of interest; thus the B. are independent
of j.
The result is an index I. at each receptor which has a value 10
when there is no locally*'generated air pollution, and a value 100
when local concentrations are all at standards, or when a situation
considered equivalent to having all concentrations at standards
exists. We determined the values a = 15.911 and n = 1.326.
Probability of Receptor in PLUM Zone
Each PLUM zone has analytically, an arbitrary size and shape;
therefore, the receptor points at which concentrations are calculated
are distributed non-uniformly with respect to the PLUM zones. Some
receptor points that influence a zone may even lie outside the zone.
A zone is affected by concentrations at receptor points in and near
it. Ideally the relationship of each receptor to zone boundaries
should be determined, but this cannot easily be done in a computer
program because of the arbitrary boundaries of each zone. Instead,
the program determines the probability of a receptor affecting a
zone.
It is assumed that those receptors out to a distance 2R from the
centroid of the zone will determine the zone's air quality, where
R = A/tt and A is the area of the zone. The probability that a
receptor will affect the zone is given by:
P(j) = Be"rj2/R2
with the condition that EP(j) = 1 so that:
j
-r.2/R2
B = l/£e rJ '
where rj is the distance from the centroid to the receptor.
103
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PLUM ZoneiAir Pollution Index
The air pollution index for a PLUM zone is formed by weighting
the index at each receptor by the probability of its effect on the
zone and summing over all receptors in the circle of radius 2R about
the centroid. This is written as:
V = ZIjp(j)
J
or
I = E e"rj2/R2 aZCC^/S.)"
y J i :
E e "j2/R2
j
PLUM Zone Air Pollution Population Index
In addition to knowing the index of air pollution in a zone it is
desirable to have a distribution of how people in a zone are
affected by the air quality within the zone. This requires
additional assumptions, which increase the uncertainty in the
output, especially for small zones.
First, a value for the average population within the zone is
obtained. This value is a function of the number of residents and
the amount of employment within the zone and is approximated by:
PN = (EN + (PN x (3- " erATI0)))/3
PN = average population in zone N of X zones
= employment in zone N
PN = total employment in the Pikes Peak Region/total
population in the Region
Once the average population is obtained, the distribution is
formed by reverting to the concept that each receptor influences
a different number of people in a PLUM zone in relation to its
distance from the centroid of the zone. Then, by using the
probability function given in Eq. (4), the number of people exposed
at least to the air pollution index at receptor j is pN(j)*
104
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APPENDIX C THE COLORADO SPRINGS EXAMPLE
This report alludes to the Colorado Springs metropolitan area in a
number of instances, and the planning process described in the report
was drawn to a substantial degree from the planning experience within
the Pikes Peak Region. Part of the rationale in using the Pikes
Peak Region as a model relates to the fact that it is a medium sized
metropolitan area and therefore has data and information needs that
require the use of specialized planning and modeling tools. At the
same time, the area is not so large that its information system or
its air pollution problems are overwhelmingly difficult to address.
In addition, the region is relatively uncomplicated in organizational
terms, since the Council of Governments serves as the designated "208"
water quality management agency, it serves as the Metropolitan Planning
Organization for transportation planning purposes, it reviews all
Federal funding applications to the region through the A-95 process,
and it is the lead agency in the air quality planning process. Program
integration, therefore, is largely a matter of intraoffice coordination.
For these reasons, the Pikes Peak Region serves as a rather straight-
forward example for planning purposes, and it can also be considered
to be representative of a wide range of other metropolitan areas with
similiar planning needs and resources. In order to better reference
the Pikes Peak Region in relation to other regions, the following
planning summary is provided.
El Paso County is the designated Air Quality Maintenance Area in the
Pikes Peak Region. El Paso County has an estimated current population
of 309,000 persons and an area of 2,150 square miles. Virtually the
entire eastern half on the county is a sparsely populated high plains
area whose principal land use is grazing. Some irrigated and dry land
farming also occurs, both somewhat uncertain industries -- the former
because of uncertain aquifer recharge and the latter because of very
poor soil and moisture conditions.
The principal air pollution problem is located in the metropolitan
area of the County, Colorado Springs being the principal focus of
the urban area. Colorado Springs is a low density city with a
current estimated population of 191,600 in an area of 57,549 acres
(90 square miles); in 1974, 46% of the land area in the City was
vacant. Growth is expected to increase at a moderate rate within
roughly the same geographic area with an expected population of
417,320 in the year 2000. El Paso County is expected to reach a
population of 554,600 in the year 2000, including Colorado Springs;
most of the additional population will be located in urban areas
adjacent to Colorado Springs.
105
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TABLE 10
Population and Size Comparisons
United States Cities
City
Size in
Square Miles
1973 Est.
Population
Baltimore, Maryland
78.3
878,000
Brooklyn, New York
70.3
2,485,000
Cincinnati, Ohio
78.1
426,000
Colorado Springs
89.9
191,600
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
95.0
691,000
Portland, Oregon
89.1
378,000
Sacramento, California
93.8
267,000
Seattle, Washington
83.6
503,000
Toledo, Ohio
81.2
377,000
Tucson, Arizona
80.0
308,000
Washington, D. C.
61.4
734,000
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Air Pollution Summary
The EPA Regional Administrator has called for State Implementation
Plan (SIP) revisions for two pollutants in the El Paso County Air
Quality Maintenance Area: particulates and carbon monoxide. There
are virtually no large, polluting industries in the Colorado Springs
Area. Government represents the largest employer, most of this
accounted for by military installations in the region NORAD,
Fort Carson, the Air Force Academy, and Peterson Air Force Base.
Light manufacturing represents the next largest basic employment
sector, including several electronics industries -- Hewlett Packard,
Ampex, Honeywell, and Digital Equipment. Tourism in the region
accounts for approximately 10% of total retail trade and continues
to be an important local industry.
Carbon monoxide pollution is, thus, largely attributable to auto
pollution. In 1980, roughly 94% of the total carbon monoxide
emissions will still derive from vehicular use in the region.
Violations of the national eight hour standard for carbon monoxide
are predicted to occur at a number of sites in 1980. (38) Most of
these sites fall along the axis represented by the major transportation
corridor (1-25) and the central city area of Colorado Springs. The
area adjoining the intersection of two major arterials in the eastern
sector of the City (Academy Boulevard and Platte Avenue) is also
projected to account for multiple violations of the eight hour
standard in 1980.
Particulate pollution is much more a region-wide problem. Using the
Federal primary standard of 75 ug/m^ (annual geometric mean), most
of the City of Colorado Springs will be in violation in 1985 in the
absence of a maintenance plan. Using the Colorado standard of 55 ug/m ,
virtually the entire metropolitan area will be in violation in 1985.
without a maintenance plan. ("*9) Part of the particulate problem can
be attributed to the semi arid climate (annual rainfall, 14.5 inches);
at least a third of the ambient concentration can be accounted for by
background or natural sources. Other major particulate sources in
the urban area consist of reentrained dust from paved roads, and to
a lesser degree unpaved roads; dust from sand placed on streets for
snow control; and land development activities. Winter months account
for the highest concentrations of particulates, and this points to
the effect of natural events (inversion periods; periods of dry, windy
weather with reduced vegetative cover) and management practices (snow
control) as major contributors. (See Figure 7)
Because of the major contribution of automobiles and road surfaces to
carbon monoxide and particulate pollution, the air quality maintenance
plan will also need to contain a Transportation Control Plan as one
of its major elements. The metropolitan area's low density character,
while of benefit on one hand because land use activities tend to be of
lower densities and act to disperse pollution emissions, will be a
substantial constraint in the development of transportation controls
107
-------
FIGURE 7
SUSPENDED PARTICLES
Concentration (Micrograms/M )
; 1973
1975
1976
108
-------
since the area is almost wholely dependent on the automobile. Similiarly,
the region's existing transportation and infrastructure systems define
to a substantial degree the future alternatives that exist for
transportation plans, and major shifts in vehicular patterns and
emission patterns can not be expected.
Land Use Scenarios
In order to better identify the air quality impact of alternative
land use patterns, five growth scenarios were constructed and analyzed
as part of the "208" water quality planning program. These scenarios
were used to investigate the costs and benefits associated with other
urban services and facilities as well; principal among these, of course,
was waste water treatment systems. The growth scenarios are
summarized as follows:
OPTION 1 - Satellite Cities in Woodland Park and Fountain,
Infilling in all other municipalities.
Under moderate growth.
- 550,000 people in the area by the year 2000
- 210,000 employees in the area by the year 2000
- Minimum annexation in all communities except Woodland Park
and Fountain
Increased developmental densities
- No expansion of utility service areas except in Woodland
Park and Fountain.
OPTION 2 - Infilling and Slow Growth
365,000 people in the area by the year 2000
- 150,000 employees in the area by the year 2000
150,000 employees in the area by the year 2000
Reduced annexation in all communities
- No expansion of utility service areas
- Application of growth controls required.
OPTION 3 - Satellite Cities under Moderate Growth
- 550,000 people in the area by the year 2000
210,000 employees in the area by the year 2000
- Expanded utility service area on a controlled basis
in Woodland Park, Fountain and in New Town area
- New Town of 60,000 a possibility
- Open Space links required to guide growth and development.
OPTION 4 - Current Trends and Moderate Growth
550,000 people in area by year 2000
- 210,000 employees in area by year 2000
Similar residential and other development densities as today
- Utility service area expanded on demand
No limits on annexation.
109
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Following the evaluation of these options, a fifth option called the
"Feasible Option" was constructed which seemed to best reflect the
policies preferred by government members of the PPACG. This option
assigns priority to growth within the central urbanized area, but not
to the exclusion of other areas. Outlying communities would also
program growth within the fiscal, environmental, and physical limits
of each of the communities. Implicit in the consideration of these
development policies is some limitation of rural densities to preserve
a greater identity for existing communities within the region, to
limit the cost of infrastructure, and to control the environmental
impacts of development. The following general guidelines summarize
the "Feasible Option":
- Plan for an area population of 550,000 persons by the year 2000;
- Place emphasis on using the natural environmental constraints
as a means of guiding growth;
- Continue attempts to obtain citizen participation;
- Continue to place more emphasis on public transportation as
part of the transportation plan;
- Aim planning at providing implementation tools and information
services;
- Preserve the identity of the individual communities that make
up the Pikes Peak Region.
The development impact of this scenario is summarized in Figures
8 and 9. The emissions impact of these scenarios is summarized
in Table 1. A summary of the concentration and human exposure
consequences of these alternatives or options is summarized in
the "Plan Analysis" section of Chapter III. This analysis points
to the conclusion that the future design of transportation and
land use systems will act to ameliorate expected pollution
problems within the Pikes Peak Region. However, they will not
be sufficient in themselves to attain and maintain air quality
within the Region, and more specific control strategies will
need to be included as part of the maintenance plan and the
transportation control element.
110
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Percent Developed 1973
ir?
FIGURE "
Kf A, ""y..-
MAP2 ZONES
90-100%
70-89%
1 50-69%
3 30-49%
] 0-29%
M MILITARY
INSTALLATIONS
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY
& WOODLAND PARK, COLORADO
POtrSS©
COUNCIL
COLORADO
umzm.
OF GOVERNMENTS
SPRINGS, COLORADO
A.
IrlSSfisgi
-------
Percent Developed 2000
COUNCIL
COLORADO
PH^IrS
OF OOVERNIVIENTB
SPRINGS, COLORADO
A.
n§iy&f£=
112
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APPENDIX D
REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS OF GRADING CONTROLS
The following analysis is intended to serve as an illustration of the
research methods discussc-d in Chapter IV. Obviously the impact analysis
for each metropoli tfir area will vary substantially depending on local
environmental conditions, the availability and cost of data sources, the
amount of manpower assigned to the product, thie volume of documentation
needed to satisfy local decision makers, and other factors. It should
also be noted that the researchnethodology outlined in Table 3 does not
apply equally well to all air quality control measures. It is particu-
larly oriented to transportation system changes, since it can be expected
that most metropolitan areas will be concerned to a substantial degree
with automotive emissions and the design of transportation control plans.
In order to demonstrate the range of analyses one may be expected to
construct, a control measure is evaluated here that does not fit well with
the transportation related analyses: grading controls. By doing so, the
point can be emphasized that impact analyses will not necessarily fit a
single framework such as the one outlined in Table 3, and the researcher
will be called upon to adapt the methodology to suit the demands of his
particular project.
In general, a grading ordinance sets forth standards and regulations to con-
trol excavation, grading, drainage, and earthwork construction, including
fills and embankments. The ordinance also establishes the administrative
procedures for issuance of permits, and provides for approval of plans and
inspection of grading construction. It is the purpose of such an ordinance
to protect and safeguard property and public welfare, to prevent nuisance
and pollution by blowing dust, and to encourage the protection of attractive
natural features within the region.
The following analysis considers the application of grading controls to the
City of Colorado Springs. Such controls are particularly appropriate for
the control of particulate pollution in the Pikes Peak Region, because of
the arid climate, the fine grained soils and the limited productivity of
native vegetative species. The first and fourth quarters of the year also
experience frequent periods of high winds, including occasional Chinooks.
Conservation measures aimed at reducing wind erosion problems, therefore,
will have measurable impact on the reduction of ambient concentrations of
particulates.
Air Quality Impact
The impact of a grading ordinance on air quality for any given year can not
be determined precisely. The factors which bear on year to year changes
in concentrations are related to the following;
1. Amount of land developed in a given year.
2. Amount of land subject to other grading regulations, e.g., Veterans
Administration minimum property standards, State regulations.
3. Control methods used by developers.
113
-------
4. Density of development subject to ordinance and amount of
impervious surfaces.
5. Distribution of development activities within control area.
6. Yearly meteorological variations.
Once certain assumptions and estimates are made, however, a relative
picture of the expected impact can be constructed. For the El Paso
County Air Quality Maintenance Area, the following assumptions were
made:
Amount of land developed in Colorado Springs per year: 300 acres,
based on inventory of developed land between 1974 and 1977.
Percent of land subject to ordinance: 40% based on very limited data.
Emission factor for grading activities (earthmoving equipment and
traffic on exposed earth): 0.98 Ton/acre/month
Control Efficiency: 50%. ^
Average duration of projects: 6 months.
Given these factors, the amount of uncontrolled and controlled emissions
from grading operations can be given by the following formulas:
Eu = e t k A
Ec = e t R A (1 -ygjj D Where
Eu = total uncontrolled emissions, tons/year
Ec = total emissions, with application of grading controls, tons/year
t = duration of project, in months
k = percient of developing land subject to ordinance
A = acreage developed in control area per year
C = control efficiency of grading controls,
e *» emissions factor, tons per acre per month.
Using these formulas, one finds that application of the grading controls
will reduce particulate emissions from 705 tons per year to 353 tons per
year for those land areas subject to the grading controls. The approximate
emission total from all sources within the city limits of Colorado Springs
is 5,700 tons per year; the application of grading controls would reduce
total emissions by approximately 6%, therefore.
114
-------
GENERAL SOIL
MAP, WESTERN
EL PASO COUNT
January, 1977
Source: SCS
115
-------
SOIL
AREAS
WIND
ERODIBILITY
SOIL GROUP K
Coldcreek
6
.10
Kutler
8
-
Kettle
2
.05-.10
Pring
3
.10
Peyton
2
.10
Columbine
6
.10
Stapleton
3
.10
Truckton
2
.10
Blakeland
2
.02
Bresser
2-3
.02-.10
Neville
3
.30
Nederland
8
.10
Rizozo
7
-
Schamber
8
.24
Razor
6
-
WIND ERODIBILITY
SOIL GROUP
1.
2.
3.
4.
KEY TO GENERAL SOIL MAP
WIND
HYDROLOGIC HYDROLOGIC ERODIBILITY
SOIL GROUP SOIL AREAS K SOIL GROUP SOIL GROUP
B
8.
Razor
-
D
6
D
Midway
.24
C
4
B
9.
Manzanola
.24
C
6
B
Limon
.24
C
4
B
10.
Stoneham
.20
B
5
A
Ascalon
.28
B
2-3
B
Ft.Collins
.20
B
5
B
11.
Bijou
.02
B
2-3
A
Wigton
.10
A
2
B
12.
Valent
.15
A
1
B
Wigton
.10
A
2
B
13.
Olney
.28
B
2
-
Vona
.10
B
3
C
SOIL CHARACTERISTICS
Mostly dune sand; single grain structure; vegetation difficult
to establish; not suitable for cropland.
Mostly loamy sands; dry clod structure is weak; requires a
combination of intensive practices to control wind erosion.
Mostly sand loams; dry clod structure moderately stable;
requires at least two measures to control wind erosion in
regions with high and intermediate climatic factor.
Mostly clays and silty clays; dry clod structure extremely
variable due to contraction and swelling by freezing and
thawing and wetting and drying; need a combination of at
least two measures in regions with high and intermediate
climatic factor.
-------
Key to General Soil Map, Continued
WIND ERODIBILITY
SOIL GROUP
SOIL CHARACTERISTICS
5. Mostly loams and sandy clay loans; dry clod structure
quite stable; a combination of at least two measures in
region with high climatic factor.
6. Mostly silt loams and clay loams; dry clod structures
stable; require a combination of at least two measures
in a region with high climatic factor.
7. Mostly silty clay loams; dry clod structure extremely
stable; usually a single practice is sufficient to control
wind erosion.
8. Soils not suitable for crops because of wetness, stoniness,
etc.
EROSION: The danger of accelerated erosion is related mainly by soil
slope, permeability and texture. The columns listed under
erosions factors are: K factor = the erosion hazard rating
for bare soil. The "K" is used to indicate the relative
degree of susceptibility to erosion. The higher the "K"
value the greater the risk of erosion occurring from bare
soil.
HYDROLOGIC SOIL GROUPS: Hydrologic soil groups are based on the amount
of runoff from bare soil after prolonged wetting.
Soils with rapid permeability rates generally
yield lower runoff than soils with slow
permeability. Soils with high infiltration
rates permit small runoff because most of the
precipitation being added to the soil is
transmitted to the subsoil and substrata.
Soils are placed into four broad hydrologic classes. These are:
-------
Key to General Soil Map, Continued
Hydrologic Group A:
Includes soils from which there is little runoff.
With high infiltration rates and rapid permeability,
much of the rain fall that occurs moves into and
through the soil. Soils included in this group
are sandy or gravelly, well-drained or excessively
well-drained soils. Except in very high intensity
storms, the amount of runoff is relatively low.
Hydrologic Group B.
Soils from which there are moderate amounts of runoff.
Soils generally have slow infiltration rates and slow
permeability rates. Soils generally included in this
group are somewhat poorly drained or moderately well
drained, with seasonal fluctuating high water tables
or with perched water tables caused by impermeable
layers in the lower part of the soil.
Hydrologic Group D.
Includes soils with very large amounts or runoff.
Most water that falls on these soils is lost to
runoff. Soils generally included are very shallow
soils to bedrock and poorly and very poorly drained
soils or soils having very low permeability in the
subsoil. Rainfall becomes excess water that cannot
be absorbed by the soil for the reasons stated above,
thus is lost to runoff.
Erodibility: Erodibility is the wind erosion group as defined in
the Guide for Wind Erosion Control on Cropland in
the Great Plains States, July 1964; supplemented
by Colorado Agronomy Note #49, August 1974.
-------
It should be noted that the emission factor used in this analysis takes
into account only those emissions resulting from the earthmoving equipment
and vehiclular traffic on exposed soil. The source footnoted here did
not consider emissions from wind erosion to be a significant factof, and
they were not included in the emission factor. Within the Pikes Peak Region
however, the Soil Conservation Service has estimated the soil loss from wind
erosion from denuded soils may exceed 60 tons per year for soils characteris-
tically found in the urbanized area. This loss would include soils of larger
particle sized than would become air-borne for long enough periods to be de-
tected by particulate monitors; at present, the SCS has no conversion factor
that would allow one to calculate the fraction of total soil loss that could
be considered to be respirable. Grain sizes of local soils have been measur-
ed, however, and one finds that between 15% and 35% of Truckton, Blakeland,
and Bresser soils (those predominately found in the metro area) will pass the
smallest sieve; this sieve is .074 mm in diameter (74 microns). Assuming all
the soils passing through this sieve would be picked up by a particulate
monitoring network, the emission factor would approximately double for the
Colorado Springs metropolitan area if one were to take into account emissions
from wind erosion.
This factor is an important one, since grading ordinance typically are oriented
more to'the control of soils disturbed or denuded by grading than they are to
the control of vehicular emissions during construction. One finds that it is
common for areas to be graded in anticipation of development; it is also the
case that development does not always occur on the schedule anticipated and
soils may be left exposed for much longer than six months used as an estimate
of construction time. Conservation measures to control wind erosion are
equally important in the Pikes Peak Region as are controls for vehicular move-
ment during grading operations, therefore, and the 6% reduction might be con-
sidered a conservative estimate of the reduction in particulate emission that
can be expected from the application of a grading ordinance.
Water Quality Control
The grading ordinance was selected for adoption,in part, because it provided
the opportunity to satisfy both air quality and water goals. The ordinance
will provide for the control of wind erosion in developing areas within the
urbanizing by the application of conservation measures that have been developed
by the Soil Conservation Service, the EPA, the State Highway Department, and
other agencies for Colorado. One finds that these same control measures can
be correlated with the control of both runoff and soil less.
Soil loss from non-irrigated land is calculated using the Universal Soil Loss
Equation. The estimated soil loss is that caused by water erosion, and accounts
only for sheet and rill erosion; it does not account for gully erosion. The
soil loss equation is given by:
119
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TABLE ijL
AVERAGE FACTOR C VALUES FOR VARIOUS SURFACE STABILIZING TREATMENTS
Factor C Values for
Time Elapsed Between Seeding and Building
Treatment None* 6 months**
Seed, fertilizer and staw mulch.
Straw disked or treated with asphalt
or chemical straw tact. 0.35 0.23
Seed and fertilizer 0.64 0.54
Chemical (providing 3 months protection) 0.89
Seed and fertilizer with chemical
(providing 3 months protection) 0.52 0.38
Chemical (providing 12 months protection) 0.56
Seed and fertilizer with chemical
(12 months protection) 0.38
~Assumes 18 month construction period. **Assumes 24 month construction period.
TABLE 12
EFFECTIVENESS OF GROUND COVER ON EROSION LOSS AT CONSTRUCTION SITES
Kinds of Ground Cover Soil Loss Reduction Related to Bare Surfaces
(Percent Effectiveness) C
Seedlings
Permanent Grasses 99 .01
Ryegrass (Perennial) 95 .05
Ryegrass (Annual) 90 .10
Small Grain 95 .05
Millet § Sudangrass 95 .05
Field Bronegrass 97 .03
Grass Sod 99 .01
Hay (2 tons per Acre) 98 .02
Small grain straw (2 tons per Acre 98 .02
Corn residues (4 tons per Acre) 98 .02
Wood chips (6 tons per Acre) 94 .06
*Wood Cellulose Fiber (103/4 tons per Acre) 90 .10
**Fiberglass (1,000 lbs per Acre) 95 .05
**Asphalt Emulsion (12- gal per Acre) 98 .02
*Based on full established stand. **Experimental-not fully validated.
Reference: "Comparative Costs of Erosion and Sediment Control,
Construction Activities", EPA-430/9-73-016, July 1973
120
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TABLE 13
PROMISING CONTROL SYSTEM AND EFFECTIVENESS
System Numbers Components Percent Effectiveness C § P
1
Seed, fertilizer, straw mulch. Erosion
structures (normal). Sediment basins
(0.04 ratio, and 70 percent of area)
91
.09
2
Same as (1) except chemical (12 months
protection) replaces straw
90
.10
3
Same as (1) except chemical straw tack
replaces asphalt
91
.09
4
Seed, fertilizer, straw mulch. Diversion
berms. Sediment basins (0.04 ratio and
100 percent area)
90
.10
5
Seed, fertilizer, straw mulch. Downstream
sediment basin (0.06 ratio)
93
.07
6
Seed, fertilizer, chemical (12 months
protection). Downstream sediment basin (0.06
ratio)
92
00
o
7
Seed, fertilizer, straw mulch. Downstream
sediment basin using flocculants.
96
.04
8
Same as (7) without straw mulch
94
.06
9
Chemical (12 months protection) sediment
basin using flocculants
94
.06
10
Same as (9) with seed, fertilizer
96
.04
Reference: "Comparative Costs of Erosion and Sediment Control, Construction
Activities", EPA-430/9-73-016, July 1973
121
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A = A. (R K L S C P S,)
l d
Where: A = the soil loss in tons per year per given area
R = rainfall factor
K = soil erodibility factor; the higher the K value, the
greater the risk of erosion occuring from bare soil,
See Figure 10 for description of regional soil types.
L = lenth of slope
S = percent slope
C = cropping management factor
P = erosion control practice factor, including control
structures.
Sp= sediment delivery ratio
A^= land use acreage
Tables 11 through 13 show the C values from the equation above that
correspond to various conservation practices. These C values are average
figures and have not been specifically determined based on local conditions.
Instead, local conditions are primarily reflected in the description of soil
characteristics; these characteristics are summarized for purposes of evalua-
ting soil loss from water is the K factor. Figure 10 provides a general soils
map of western El Paso County, and the soil map key lists the K values for
each of the major soil types.
Given the type of particulate control measures employed on a site graded for
development and the site's soil characteristics, the expected reduction in
soil loss from water erosion can also be calculated. Assume, for example,
that an acre of land from the Blakeland soil series has been graded for de-
velopment. Further assume that a 10% slope remains vhich runs for 300 feet
(representative depth for a one acre residential lot). If seed and fertili-
zer have been drilled traveling across the slope, the expected soil loss from
water erosion can be calculated.
R = 70 average rainfall value for El Paso County
K = .02 value for Blakeland series, from the soil map key
LS= 2.37 (10% slope and 300 feet length
C = .54 seed and fertilizer
P = .8 (cross slope farming) ^3
S ,= .7 44
A.= 1 acre
l
Therefore, A = 1 (70 x .02 x 2.37 x .54 x .8 x .7)
or A = 1 ton per acre per year from water erosion
Soil loss from relatively simple conservation measures can, therefore,
be reduced to one to five tons per year depending on the K value of the
principal soil associations in the urbanized area (Blakeland, Bresser and
Truckton.
Runoff
Particulate control measures can also be expected to reduce the runoff of
water from urban development sites. In addition to the retention of soil,
controlling the loss of water will reduce the burden on storm drainage
122
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systems and reduce future costs for drainage improvements, will provide
additional waters for ground water recharge, will increase the productive
capacity and aesthetic value of the vegetative cover, and will reduce the
potential for damage to adjacent property owners.
Tables 14 and 15 relate land use and conservation practices to the volume
of runoff. The soil map key also provides the interpretation of regional
soils in terms of their hydrological characteristics. Using these tables,
one finds that for a one inch rain, runoff can be reduced to approximately
.1 inch if conservation measures are applied to the soils with the highest
runoff rates (D soils). For soils with more rapid percolation (A group),
runoff can virtually be eliminated from a one inch rain through conservation,
techniques. (See Table 15)
These considerations will have a particularly important impact on the
foothills area of the metropolitan area. While these areas generally have
a richer set of terrestrial features than the plans area, they are also
more subject to disruption from erosion as a result of development activi-
ties. The uniform application of conservation measures will work to
guarantee that these resources are preserved and maintained, and that the
burden on drainage and stream systems will be minimized.
Water Use
Dust controls during construction operations and revegetation efforts may
require greater amounts of water than would be the case without grading
controls. Spraying of dirt tracts during construction and hydromulching of
denuded soils represent two examples of stabilization techniques which may
require substantial amounts of water.
These practices could be monitored during the implementation phase to ensure
that increased water consumption does not unnecessarily burden community
water supplies. In general, one would expect that short term increases in
water consumption would be more than offset by decreases in water runoff pro-
vided over the long-term future through the application of conservation
techniques.
123
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Table 14 Runoff curve numbers for selected agricultural,
suburban, and urban land usel ^
HYDROLOGIC SOIL GROUP
LAND USE DESCRIPTION
A
B
C
D
Cultivated land
Without conservation
72
81
88
91
treatment
with conservation
62
71
78
81
treatment
Pasture or range land:
poor condition
68
79
86
89
good condition
39
61
74
80
Meadow: good condition
30
58
71
78
Wood or forest land:
thin stand, poor
45
66
77
83
cover, no mulch
good cover
25
55
70
77
Open spaces, lawns, parks, golf
courses, cemeteries, etc:
good condition: grass 39
61
74
80
cover on 75% or more
of the area
fair condition: grass 49
69
79
84
cover on 50% to 75%
of the area
Commercial and business areas
(85% impervious)
89
92
94
95
Industrial districts (72% impervious)
81
88
91
93
Residential:
Average Lot Average %
Size Impervious
1/8 acre or less 65
77
85
90
92
1/4 acre 38
61
75
83
87
1/3 acre 30
57
72
81
86
1/2 acre 25
54
70
80
85
1 acre 20
51
68
79
84
Paved parking lots, roofs,
driveways, etc.
98
98
98
98
Streets and roads:
paved w/curb and
storm sewers
98
98
98
98
gravel
76
85
89
91
dirt
72
82
87
89
124
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Table 15 Runoff Depth in Inches for Selected CN's and Rainfall
Amounts' ^6
Rainfall Curve Number (CN)—^
finches)
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
98
1.0
0
0
0
0.03
0.08
0.17
0.32
0.56
0.79
1.2
0
0
0.03
0.07
0.15
0.28
0.46
0.74
0.99
1-4
0
0.02
0.06
0/13
0.24
0.39
0.61
0.92
1.18
1.6
0.01
0.05
0.11
0.20
0.34
0.52
0.76
1.11
1.38
1.8
0.03
0.09
0.17
0.29
0.44
0.65
0.93
1.29
1.58
2.0
0.06
0.14
0.24
0.38
0.56
0.80
1.09
1.48
1.77
2.5
0.17
0.30
0.46
0.65
0.89
1.18
1.53
1.96
2.27
3.0
0.33
0.51
0.72
0.96
1.25
1.59
1.98
2.45
2.78
4.0
1.76
1.03
1,33
1.67
2.04
2.46
2.92
3.43
3.77
5.0
1.30
1.65
2.04
2.45
2.89
3.37
3.88
4.42
4.76
5.0
1.92
2.35
2.80
3.28
3.78
4.31
4.85
5.41
5.76
7.0
2.60
3.10
3.62
4.15
4.69
5.26
5.82
6.41
6.76
8.0
3.33
3.90
4.47
5.04
5.62
6.22
6.81
7.40
7.76
9.0
4.10
4.72
5.34-
5.95
6.57
7.19
7.79
8.40
8.76
10.0
4.90
5.57
6.23
6.88
7.52
8.16
8.78
9.40
9.76
11.0
5.72
6.44
7.13
7.82
8.48
9.14
9.77
10.39
10.76
12.0
6.56
7.32
8.05
8.76
9.45
10.12
10.76
11.39
11.76
— To obtain runoff depths for CH's and other rainfall amounts not shown
in this table, use an arithmetic interpolation, or Appendix C
in Reference 4.
125
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Energy Use
The application of grading controls will marginally increase the amounts
of energy needed to develop sites in the urban area. These increases
will be related to the production, transport, and application of materials
used as conservation measures. The amount of additional resources com-
mitted will vary substantially depending on the site and the conservation
measures used, and will range from seeding with native grasses to the con-
struction of cement or asphalt drainage structures. These increases could
be measured on a site by site bases; estimates have not been included here;
since they can be considered to be a relatively small fraction of the
amounts of fuel and other energy resources accounted for by construction
equipment, trucking, laborer commuting, and other operations associated
with land development. On a regional scale, the amounts of additional
resources committed are essentially insignificant.
Transportation System Impacts
Local grading ordinances fit well with transportation planning goals. Con-
servation measures, by reducing the volume of runoff that reaches the
storm drainage system and area streams, will also reduce future drainage
improvements required as part of transportation system development, e.g.,
bridges, culverts, and other structure. By controlling the amount of
sediments reaching local streets, grading controls will also reduce the
burden on drainage systems, will reduce clogging and other maintenance
costs, and provide a safer and smoother running surface.
Noise Impacts
Noise impacts associated with the grading ordinance will be minimal. How-
ever, to the extent that landscaping vegetative productivity near street
systems, one cauld expect a greater buffering effect and a reduction of
noise penetration. If grading plans were specifically coordinated with
buffering elements such as berms, shelter belts, and other landscaping
elements, the potential for reducing noise impacts would increase sub-
stantially. No such coordination is envisioned as a mandatory requirement
of the grading ordinance, so benefits that accrue from such planning will
depend on the initiative of individual developers.
Private Sector Costs
Costs for implementing the grading ordinance will vary substantially de-
pending on a number of factors. Most local communities already include re-
quirements within subdivision and zoning ordinances for handling storm
drainage. In addition, the minimum property standards used by VA and FHA
also require control of grading if a subdivision is to be eligible for
federal housing loan programs. In the state of Colorado, State regulations
already apply to grading where more than five acres are to be disturbed.
In general, costs will need to be determined on a site by site basis and
will vary according to the following factors:
126
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1. topographical and drainage characteristics of the site
2. land use and density of development proposed for site
3. soil characteristics
4. type of control measure, e. g. sodding versus seeding
5. sensitivity of adjacent properties, e.g. proximity to surface
waters.
The most basic conservation practice for level sites would consist of
seeding the disturbed ground with drought resistant grasses; this would
cost approximately $35 to $45 per acre and would include the cost of
seed, fertilizer, land preparation, equipment use, and labor. Other
methods for the stabilization of cut and fill slopes and other site
features would cost more, depending on the methods and materials used.
Table 16 provides a list of erosion control measures used by the Colorado
Department of Highways and average bids received in 1977 for the appli-
cation or installation of these controls.
Control of fugitive dust associated with the operation of equipment and
movement of vehicles during actual grading operations can be estimated
based on the costs of labor and equipment use. Current estimates are
difficult to drive, however, since constructions bids do not normally
provide costs by type of vehicle or operation, e.g., water truck operation.
In addition, costs would vary substantially with the scheduling of develop-
ment. If road surfaces were graveled or paved immediately after grading
and compaction, additional controls for futitive dust would not be
necessary in order to control vehicular emissions. On the other hand, if
roads were roughed in but not completed, the costs for controlling fugitive
dust on these surfaces from heavy equipment and trucks would be substantial.
One would expect, at the least, more careful development planning in order
to minimize the costs associated with temporary controls related to heavy
vehicles.
Public and Private Benefits
Balancing the ledger on the benefit side in dollar terms is more difficult
in many ways than the evaluation of costs. How does one measure, for
example, the value of an improved quality of life or the reduced risk of
disease? What trade-offs are individuals in this region willing to make?
How do the risks of air pollution compare with risks we voluntarily expose
ourselves to daily? Because of this difficulty, Chapter V emphasized that
the evaluation of social impacts must take into account not only the results
of any attempts at quantitative evaluation, but must include the broader
implications of public opinion, industry pressures, and the predilection
of local decision makers. In general, however, both the public and private
sectors will benefit from strict adherence to air quality standards, and
these benefits can be summarized as follows:
127
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TABLE 16
EROSION CONTROL MEASURES ACCOMPANYING GRADING AND THEIR COSTS
Erosion Control Measure
Soil preparation, native habitat
Soil preparation, lawns
Sodding
Mulching
Hydro-mulching
Mulch netting
Soil retention blanket, jute
Soil retention blanket, paper
Tree grate
Light rip rap
Heavy rip rap
Concrete slope and ditch paving
Concrete slope and ditch paving,
reinforced
Dry rubble slope and ditch paving
Grouted rubble slope
Bituminous slope and ditch paving
Plastic lined ditch
Average Bid Received by
Colorado Department of Highways
in 1977
$17.97 per acre
$525.16 per acre
$ 0.20 per square foot
$150.00 per acre
$449.00 per ton
$ 0.48 per square yard
$ 1.00 per square yard
$ 1.10 per square yard
$310.00 per acre
$ 11.63 per cubic yard
$ 15.74 per cubic yard
$127.98 per cubic yard
$129.69 per cubic yard
$ 19.40 per cubic yard
$ 66.58 per cubic yard
$ 29.43 per ton
$23.00 per lineal foot
128
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Public Benefit
Private Benefits
1. Improved health
2. Reduced safety hazards
3. Reduced health risks to
damage suits
3. Better employee relations
4. Better public relations
5. Reduced Maintenence costs
6. Increased property values
7. Product recovery
8. New markets for new products
1. Lower employee absenteeism
2. Reducfed risk of civil
man and animal
4. More comfortable enjoyment
of life and property
5. Reduced property damage
6. Increased property values
7. Less vegetation damage
relating to air pollution
or damage.
Within the Pikes Peak Region, a number of characteristics of the economy
would expand this list. Tourism, though no longer a major component of
the Regional economy is still a significant sector and accounts for
approximately 10% of total retail sales. The continued viability of
this industry will depend largely on the conservation of those natural
features that attract tourists from throughout the nation.
The Pikes Peak Region also serves as retirement community for a large
number of families, particularly military retirees. These families con-
tribute to the local economy through additional demand in housing and
retail trade sectors. Should pollution problems continue to worsen, re-
tired and elderly families will be particularly affected, and the area's
ability to attract new families will be substantially lost.
A third local industry that is of major importance and also partially
dependent on regional health factors is the military. Fort Carson and
the Air Force Academy, particularly, are responsible for the physical
conditioning and training of military forces. Individuals who are
physically active breathe much larger amounts of ambient air and are,
therefore, much more susceptible to the debilitating effects of air
pollution. Should pollution problems remain unchecked, these institutions
will also need to reevaluate their long term plans for training in the
Pikes Peak Region.
Finally, it is worthwhile to point out that local efforts to develop the
Region as an amateur sports center would be seriously affected by continued
air pollution problems. Certainly, the Colorado Springs area could not be
considered an appropriate locale for a permanent Olympic training facility,
if athletes were required to live and train in physically damaging accumu-
lations of air pollution.
129
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Social Impacts
The principal social benefits derived from a reduction of particulate
concentrations to the Federal ambient standard of 75 micrograms per
cubic meter are associated with human health. The effects of particu-
lates on human health depend on the size and chemical composition of
the materials tihat are absorbed by the body. (principally through the
lungs). Particulates that are essentially inert chemically may harm
the Imgs by irritation of the muscle structure, by causing swelling of
membranes lining the airways, and by enlargement of the glands that
produce mucus. Chronic effects related to inert particulates are re-
lated to progressive scarring of the lungs which interferes with proper
gas exchange. Acute effects can also be experienced when materials
reach the air cells (alveoli); the irritation of particulates may result
in collapse of the alveoli or the alveoli may become filled with edema
fluid. In either case, the damaged air cells can not ventilate properly
and serious physiological damage may result.
Inert materials are damaging to the lungs not only by acting as an
irritant, but aerosol particules also have the property to absorb other
materials on their surface. Research has demonstrated for example, that
the effects of inhaled gases such as SO^ are compounded by the catalytic
or transport effect of inert aerosols.
Particulates are particularly damaging to persons with lung diseases such
as asthma or bronchitis. These persons typically react to inhaled
irritants at a dosage which could be expected to have no effect on
healthy individuals. In addition, further narrowing of airways by inhaled
irritants in patients who already have constricted airways would have more
serious consequences than it would in healthy individuals.
In addition to inert materials, particulates also include a wide range
of other materials that are chemically reactive and which may act as
teratogens (agents causing physical defects in a developing embryo), muta-
gens,; (capable of inducing mutation) and carcinogens (cancer producing).
These pollutants include asbestos, lead, nickel, chromates, arsenic,
vanadium, chlorinated hydrocarbons, coal products, and other polynuclear
organic compounds. Substances such as lead may also cause neurologic
damage and may be most seriously damaging to children through the poisen-
ing of red blood cells, slowing of nerve reaction, reduction in muscular
strength, and reduction in IQ. Particulates that result from the incomplete
combustion of fossil fuels, particularly coal, pose specific threats; poly-
nuclear hydrocarbons seem to be especially effective carcinogens among this
class of products; and one of these that is used by many laboratories as a
tracer for such carcinogens is 3,4-benzphyrene. 48
In terms of mass concentrations, the "Air Quality Criteria for Particulate
Matter" 4?,, indicates effects were observed at particulate concentration
of 80 >Jg/m through increased incidence of de^th for persons over 50 years
of age. At annual average levels of 100 >ig/m , children are likely to
experience increased incidence of respiratory disease. At a particulate
level of 60 jug/m , in the present of sulfur oxides and moisture, there is
accelerated corrosion of steel and zinc.
130
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FIGURE 11
ENVIRONMENTAL DISEASES AND POPULATION OBCWTH IN EL PASO COUNTY
z
o
s
in
£->
53
&
O
8
c5
195c
YEAR
-------
Within El Paso County, medical statistics have not been compiled
to allow a correlation of pollution concentration with environ-
mental diseases or deaths. Figure 11 does allow a general compari-
son of population increases in El Paso County with selected causes
of death. Because of the lack of more detailed data, there is
little basis locally for predicting the expected reduction in
disease and deaths that will result from the implementation of
particulate controls. Based on the criteria documents and other
medical research, however, one would expect the incidence of certain
diseases such as asthma, acute bronchitis, emphysema, and other lung
diseases to decline over the long term future; the costs of medical
care and insurance would also be less than would otherwise be the
case.
Visual Resources
The proposed grading controls are expected to have a significant impact
on visual resources. Though the grading controls are not directed to
attain the 60 micro gram per cubic meter standard, which is designed
to attain the goal of protecting visibility within urban areas, the
reduction of particulate concentrations from existing levels will pro-
vide measurable progress towards reducing haze and visual degradation
of the metropolitan area. These reductions are particularly important
since the Pikes Peak National Forest and other mountain parks border
much of the metropolitan areas; the value of these areas as natural
resource and recreation areas rests largely on their protection as
viable and relatvely unspoiled ecological systems. Air pollution,
therefore, has a significant impact on these areas in terms of both
visual resources and the physical damage to vegetation resulting from
air pollution; to the extent that the proposed strategies will provide
measurable progress towards the secondary pollution standards, the
protection of resources in the entire Region will be afforded.
Conclusion
In general, one can conclude that the grading ordinance will work to
further a number of environmental and urban systems management goals.
The "inter-media" benefits can be summarized in terms of increases in
transportation system efficiency and reduction in maintenance costs,
reduced sedimentation and soil loss, reduced water runoff, and increased
recharge potential for regional soil groups. These conservation measures
will work to increase the vegetative productivity in developing portions
of the Region and will contribute to more stable and richer landscaping
features.
Social benefits accruing from the control programs can be summarized in
terms of decreased health hazard and greater worker productivity; im-
provements in visual resources and the conservation of important recrea-
tion areas; and more livable urban communities for retired citizens,
tourists, and the general citizenry.
132
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Economic costs and benefits, while difficult to quantify, will be
distributed among various sections of the community. The region
as a whole will benefit from the preservation of an attractive and
healthful physical environment. This element provides not only an
attactive inducement for the location of new industry, but provides
a superior living environment which may be equally as important as
wage scales in attracting qualified workers to the region. Special
sectors of the community, particularly the tourist industry and the
housing sector which supplies units for retired military and civilian
families, will also benefit substantially from the strict adherence
to air quality standards.
Economic costs may be distributed evenly to the region through in-
creased tax assessments, or they may accrue more to particular sectors
of the community through higher site costs, and higher costs for
certain products. In some cases, cost savings may actually accrue
to the private sector: yi view of the patchwork pattern of develop-
ment controls related to grading now existing through local ordinances,
Federal insuring requirements, and Air Pollution Control Commission
regulations, a comprehensive and streamlined grading program may
actually act to reduce development costs in a number of situations.
In summary, economic costs, while representing one of the most signifi-
cant impacts of the grading controls, will not represent an onerous
burden for public and private institutions in the region to assume.
133
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F
Z=]
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FOOTNOTES
1 Discussed in Marshal I. Goldman, "Pollution: The Mess Around
Us", Controlling Pollution, 1967 p. 19.
2 Federal Register, May 3, 1976.
3 See, for example, Julian Beaver, "Project Aquarius: the
Application of Land Use Controls to Water Quality Management."
4 See, for example, Amory Levins, "Energy Strategy: the Road
Not Taken", Not Man Apart, November, 1976.
5 James S. Roberts, "Energy and Land Use: Analysis of Alternative
Development Patterns", Environmental Comment, September, 1975,
pp. 2-11.
6 William J. Veigele, et.al., Land Use Planning for Air Quality
in the Pikes Peak Region (Colorado Springs: PPACG, 1972),p. 60.
7 Institute of Public Administration and Teknekron, Inc.,
Evaluating Transportation Controls to Reduce Motor Vehicle
Emissions, (Research Triangle Park, North Carolina: EPA, 1972),
p. D. 8.
8 Interplan Corporation, Joint Strategies for Urban Transportation,
Air Quality, and Energy Conservation, (Washington, D. C.: EPA,
1975), pp. 1-65.
9 Lew Pratsch/'Knoxville and Portland: Two Successful Commuter
Pooling Programs", in Paratransit, p. 60.
10 Real Estate Research Corporation, The Costs of Sprawl, Detailed
Cost Analysis, (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1974), p. 134.
11. Ibid, pp. 133, 134.
12 Ibid, p, 134.
13 Ibid, p. 137
14 Ibid, pp. 115-129.
15 PPACG, Nelson, Haley, Patterson and Quirk, Areawide Water Quality
Management Plan, (Colorado Springs: PPACG, 1976), p. 123.
134
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FOOTNOTES (Cont.)
16 Wilson Clark, Energy for Survival, the Alternatives to
Extinction (New York: Anchor Books, 1975), p. 243.
17 For a more complete summary of these land use models, see
California Air Resources Board, Air Quality, Land Use and
Transportation Models: Evaluation and Utilization in the
Planning Process, (California Air Resources Board: Sacramento,
California, July, 1974), (NTIS #PB-237-867).
18 More detailed summaries of land use models are provided in
Air Quality, Land Use, and Transportation Models: Evaluation
and Utilization in the Planning Process (Air Resources Board:
Sacramento, California, July, 1974) (available through
National Technical Information Service as #PB-237-867).
19 Resource Sciences, Inc., 1975 Air Quality Models for the Pikes
Peak Region, (PPACG: Colorado Springs, Colorado, 1975), p. 9.
20 David Kircher, Marcia William, Charles Masser, et.al.,
Supplement No. 5 for Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission
Factors (Environmental Protection Agency: Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina, April, 1975).
21 Environmental Protection Agency, Guidelines for Air Quality
Maintenance Planning and Analysis, Volume 12: Applying
Atmospheric Simulation Models to Air Quality Maintenance
Areas (Research Triangle Park, North Carolina: EPA, 1974).
A recently updated summary of models is provided in A.E.
Smith, K.L. Brubaker, et.al., Workbook for the Comparison of
Air Quality Models (EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards: Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 1977).
22 For a more complete description of the modeling process, see
T.M. Briggs, M. Overstreet, A. Kotran, T.M. Dewitt, Air
Pollution Considerations in Residential Planning Volume II -
Backup Report. (PEDCO: Cincinnati; Ohio, July, 1974),
pp. 27-62.
23 See Glossary in Appendix A.
24 William Veigele and Reed Clayson, Resource Science Institute,
Systems Planning Level Air Quality and Noise Models and Their
Sensitivity to Input Errors (Colorado Springs: PPACG, 1976)
p. 45.
25 Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments, Options for the Future:
What Do They Mean, (PPACG: Colorado Springs, Colorado, 1975).
26 Resource Science, Inc., "Air Impacts," in Options for the
Future: What Do They Mean (Colorado Springs: PPACG), pp. 48-51.
135
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FOOTNOTES (Cont.)
27 John Ryan, et.al., Considerations in the Development of a Public
Cost Evaluation Model, John Ryan Company and Earthe Associates,
for PPACG, December, 1974.
28 Garret Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, December 13,
1968.
29 Volume I, Executive Summary; Volume II Experimental Characterization
of Idle Inspection, Exhaust Control Retrofit, and Mandatory Engine
Maintenance; Volume III Impact of Altitude on Vehicular Exhaust
Emissions; Volume IV, Analysis of Experimental Results; Volume V,
Development of Techniques, Criteria, and Standards to Implement
a Vehicle Inspection, Maintenance, and Modification Program;
Volume VI, The Data Base; Volume VII. Experimental Characterization
of Vehicular Emission and Engine Deterioration. Prepared for
Colorado Department of Health and Region VIII of the Environmental
Protection Agency by Automotive Testing Laboratories, December, 1973.
30 Air Pollution Control Commission and the Colorado Department of
Health, Report to the Public, 1976, (State of Colorado: Denver,
Colorado, 1976).
31 Costs of Sprawl, pp. 90-131.
32 R. L. Crouch § R. E. Weintraub, "Cost-Benefit Analysis of a PUD,
"Urban Land, June, 1973.
33 Randall W. Scott, "Management and Control of Growth, An
Introduction and Summary, Volume I Management and Control of
Growth (Washington, D. C.: the Urban Land Institute, 1975), p. 4.
34 Paul C. Watt and Wayne Hoffman, "An Experience in Relating
Transportation, Land Use, and Air Quality Planning", a paper
presented to the November, 1974 National Converence on Land Use
Planning, Transportation Planning, and Air Quality Management,
published by Triangle Universities Consortium on Air Pollution,
Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
35 California Air Resources Board, Recommended Responsibilities of
Air Resources Board to Local Planning Agencies,(State of
California, Sacramento, California, July, 1974), p. 9.
36 Fred Bosselman and David Callies, The Quiet Revolution in Land
Use Control, (Council on Environmental Quality: U.S.Government
Printing Office, 1971); Randall Scott, David Brower, Dallas
Miner, eds., The Management and Control of Growth, Volumes I, II,
III,(Urban Land Institute: Washington, D. C., 1975); Fred Bosselman,
Duane Feurer, Charles Siemon, The Permit Explosion, Coordination of
the Proliferation, (Urban Land Institute: Washington, D. C., 1976).
136
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FOOTNOTES (Cont.)
37 Appendix B is taken in its entirety from 1975 Air Quality
Models for the Pikes Peak Region, pp. 15-19. A more complete
description of the index is provided in William J. Veigele and
Reed L. Clayson, "Concentration and Index Sensitivity of a
Gaussian Plume Model", Proceedings of Seventh International
Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling, September, 1976.
(Copies available through PPACG).
38 PEDCO Environmental Specialists, El Paso County AQMA Analysis -
Carbon Monoxide, (PEDCO Environmental Specialists, Inc: Cincinnati,
Ohio , November, 1976)^: Table 3, p. 17.
39 Figure 3-8, El Paso County, AQMA Analysis for TSP,(PEDCO
Environmental Specialists, Inct Cincinnati, Ohio, November, 1976).
40 Based on data from Environmental Protection Agency, Investigation
of Fugitive Pust: Sources, Emissions, and Control, (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency: Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina, 1974). Publication Number EPA-450/3-74-036.
41 Ibid.
42 Value taken from Table VIII-1, Karcich § Weber, Inc., Drainage
Criteria Manual, Part two: Background Information, (PPACG:
Colorado Springs, Colorado, 1976), p. VIII-7.
43 Value taken from Table VIII-6, Ibid., p. VIII-13.
44 Value taken from Figure VIII-4, Ibid., p. VIII-14.
45 Table 14 from Ibid., p. IV-2.5.
46 Table 15 from Ibid., p. IV-2.3.
47 R.D. Ross, editor, Air Pollution and Industry, (Van Nostrand
Reinhold Company: Cincinnati, Ohio, 1972), p. 21.
48 Richard D. Cadle, "The Chemistry of Smog," in William H.
Matthews, William W. Kellog and G.D. Robinson, eds., Man's
Impact on the Climate, (MIT Press: Cambridge, Mass., 1971) p.346.
49 U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, "Air Quality
Criteria for Particulates," NAPCA Publication No. AP-49, January,
1970.
137
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