ReVA-MAIA Conference:
USING SCIENCE TO ASSESS
ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITIES
ReV A-MAIA
May 13-15,2003
Hilton Valley Forge
United States
mgfa L/#\ Environmental Protection
I™ I Agency
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ReVA MAI A Conference
CONTENTS
Keynote Address
William Klein, American Planning Association
Planning and Environmental Science: Closing the Gap 3
Session One - Assessing Current Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Tuesday - May 13,2003
Morning Session 9:15 am -12:00 pm
Regional-Scale Ground-Water Vulnerability Assessments in the Mid-Atlantic Region
Based on Statistical Probability Models 7
Assessing Wetland Condition on a Watershed Basis in the Mid-Atlantic Region Using
Synoptic Land Cover Maps 8
Evaluating Shoreline Conditions at Different Spatial Scales - Implications as an Ecological Indicator 9
Using Regional Models to Assess the Relative Effects of Stressors on Stream Ecological Integrity 10
Invasive Species: An Important Stressor in the Mid-Atlantic Area 11
Environmental Indicators for Water Quality and Aquatic Ecosystem Management: Interviews of
Government Officials in the Atlantic Slope 12
Afternoon Session 2:00 pm - 5:45 pm
Identification of Lands Important for Protecting Water Quality and Watershed Integrity
in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed 13
Landscape Ecological Assessment of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed 14
The Effect of Broad-Scale Habitat Condition on the Location and Quality of Migratory Pathways 15
SmartConservation™ - An Opportunity to Integrate ReVA/MAIA with a 'Bottom-Up' Conservation
Assessment Web-Tool 16
Exploring Connections Between Ecological Condition and Human Health: County-Level
Aggregation for Maryland 17
Connecting Socio-Economic Well-Being to Regional Scale Ecological Assessments 18
ReVA's Web-Based Application: A Tool to Facilitate Environmental Decision-Making 19
TABLE OF CONTENTS I
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Session Two - Forecasting Environmental Condition and Vulnerabilities
Wednesday - May 14, 2003
Morning Session 9:00 am -12:20 pm
Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing Urban Land Uses and Climate 23
Life-History Traits and Landscape Patterns: Predicting Population Persistence in the
Mid-Atlantic Region 24
Vulnerability of Mid-Atlantic Forested Watersheds to Timber Harvest Disturbance 25
SmartConservation™ Tools: Automating a Conservation Value Assessment Model
for Southeast Pennsylvania 26
Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences
for a Future Environment 27
Environmental Influences on Genetic Diversity of Creek Chubs in the Mid-Atlantic Region
of the USA 28
Assessing the Vulnerability of Resource Lands in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed 29
The Effect of Land-Cover Change on Nutrient Export Variance 30
Afternoon Session 2:00 pm - 5:30 pm
Making a Difference: Climate Impacts Assessment and Advances in Regional Resource Management 31
Urban Areas and Contributions to Regional Environmental Quality 32
Web Data Presentation and Analysis - Made Easy? Intertwining Technology, Environmental
Evaluation, and Culture 33
A Site Prioritization Procedure for Monitoring Plots: Combining Ecological and Social Criteria 34
Modeling and Multiobjective Risk Decision Tools for Assessment and Management of Ecosystems 35
Building a Regional Monitoring Framework: Integrating Local Programs and the Ontario Niagara
Escarpment Monitoring Program 36
Environmental Impacts of Dispersed Development from Federal Infrastructure Projects 37
Session Three - Developing Management Strategies to Optimize the Future
Thursday - May 15,2003
Morning Session 9:00 am -12:30 pm
Sustainable Environment for Quality of Life (SEQL): Charlottes Region's Integrated
Environmental Initiative 41
Sustainability Indicators as a Communicative Tool - Building Bridges in Pennsylvania 42
Strategic Partnership to Assess State-Level Vulnerabilities: Highlights of the Maryland
DNR - ReVA Cooperative Agreement 43
Criteria for Prioritization of Ecosystem Restoration 44
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Geospatial Data for Environmental Assessments and Vulnerability Studies 45
Using the Mike 11 Hydrologic Model to Delineate Flood Prone Areas in Smithfield, WV 46
The Mid-Atlantic Highlands Action Program: Transforming the Legacy 47
Assessing the Effectiveness of Restoration Technologies 48
Poster Session
Tuesday Evening 6:00 pm - 8:00 pm
Linking Land Use to Larval Walleye Survival 51
Montgomery County, Maryland Uses Biological Monitoring to Better Understand and
Manage Watersheds 52
Innovative Environmental Education Contributes to Improved Management Practices
in the Mid-Atlantic 53
Key Messages from an Emergy Analysis of West Virginia 54
A Regional Perspective on Ambient Monitoring Reassessment and Analysis 55
Watersheds and Wetlands: Large-Scale Disturbances and Small Scale Responses 56
Calvert County Maryland's Success at Controlling Sprawl 58
A Small Watershed Characterization, Classification and Assessment for West Virginia
Utilizing EMAP Design and Tools 59
June Bugs Invade Links: Pesticide Use Reduction with Geographic Information Systems 60
A Bayes Likelihood Information Theoretic Approach for the Exogenous Aggregation
of Regional Ground Water Quality Data 61
A Regional Approach to Projecting Land-Use Change and Resulting Ecological Vulnerability 62
Mapping and Modeling Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Utilizing
Impervious Surface Maps to Assess Environmental Vulnerabilities 63
Selecting Vital Sign Indicators for the National Capital Network 64
An Overview of Data Integration Methods for Regional Assessment 65
Can Landscape Characteristics of Watersheds Help Find Impaired Bottom Communities in Estuaries? 66
Strategic Planning and Indicators for Targeting Environmental Outcomes 67
Impacts of Anthropogenic Nitrogen Deposition on Forest Carbon Sequestration and N
Dynamics in the Mid-Atlantic Region 68
Empirical, Geographically-Based Water Quality Criteria Development Using Conditional
Probabilities: A Proposed Approach with Application to Sediments in Mid-Atlantic Streams 69
Contaminant Exposure and Effects Terrestrial Vertebrates Database: Analysis for the Northeast 70
Waquoit Bay Watershed Ecological Risk Assessment: Using Science to Support Management 71
Watershed Planning and Restoration in an Urbanized County 72
A Fuzzy Decision Analysis Method for Regional Environmental Assessment of the
Mid-Atlantic Region 73
An Integrated Framework for Uncertainty Analysis in Regional Environmental Assessment 74
CrEAM: Getting the Best Ecosystems to Float to the Top 75
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III
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Invited Keynote Address
William Klein, American Planning Association
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Planning and Environmental Science: Closing the Gap
William R. Klein
AICP, Director of Research, American Planning Association, Chicago, IL
A significant gap exists between environmental scientists and conservation biologists,
who are involved with environmental assessment, risk reduction, and mitigation, and township or
county planning as it is practiced today by planners. This disconnect is perpetuated by a number
of beliefs and attitudes held by planners and environmental scientists concerning appropriate
scale, politics and compromise, and authority to implement action. If we are serious about doing
a better job of integrating the built and natural environments, we need to close this gap.
KEYNOTE ADDRESS
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Session One
Assessing Current Impacts and Vulnerabilities
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Regional-Scale Ground-Water Vulnerability Assessments in the Mid-Atlantic
Region Based on Statistical Probability Models
Earl A.Greene1, Andrew E. LaMotte2, Nagaraj K. Neerchal3, Kerr A. Kelly4, and Mingliu Liu4
1 Hydrologist, United States Geological Survey, Baltimore, MD
2 Geographer, United States Geological Survey, Baltimore, MD
3 Professor, Math and Statistics, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD
4 Graduate Students, Math and Statistics, University of Maryland Baltimore County,
Baltimore, MD
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA), is
developing a set of statistical tools to support regional-scale, integrated ecological risk
assessment studies. ReVA's goal is to develop and demonstrate approaches to comprehensive,
regional-scale assessments that effectively inform decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent,
distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated environmental risks. The USGS is
developing and exploring the use of probability models to statistically characterize the relation
between ground-water quality and geographic factors at local and watershed scales throughout
the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Existing water-quality data from the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment
(NAWQA) Program sampling sites (wells) were used in conjunction with geographic data (land
use/land cover, geology, soils, and others) to develop logistic-regression equations that use
explanatory variables to predict the presence of a selected water-quality parameter. The resulting
logistic-regression equations were transformed to determine the probability, P(X), of a water-
quality parameter exceeding a specified management threshold. Additional statistical procedures
developed by the USGS as part of this study were then used to evaluate the prediction at the local
and watershed scales, estimate confidence level, and estimate the uncertainty of the probability
value.
Maps showing the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations exceeding various
thresholds (0.5 to 10 mg/L as N in 0.5-mg/L increments) in the Mid-Atlantic Region were
produced from the statistical model. These maps illustrate areas where there is an elevated risk of
nitrate contamination in shallow ground water throughout the region. At many of the threshold
levels, the risk of nitrate contamination in shallow ground water is high in the Delmarva
Peninsula, the Lancaster County area of Pennsylvania, and in carbonate rocks throughout
Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. This model can be updated periodically as
new nitrate and land-use-change data become available to monitor changes in ground-water
vulnerability over time. Even though this model was developed for nitrate contamination in
ground water, the method developed for this study can be used for other water-quality
parameters (arsenic, radium, bacteria, and others) that may affect human or environmental
health.
Session One - May 13, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Assessing Wetland Condition on a Watershed Basis in the Mid-Atlantic
Region Using Synoptic Land Cover Maps
Robert P. Brooks, Denice Heller Wardrop, and Joseph A. Bishop
Penn State Cooperative Wetlands Center, Forest Resources Laboratory Pennsylvania
State University, University Park, PA 16802
We developed a series of tools to address three integrated tasks needed to effectively
manage wetlands on a watershed basis: inventory, assessment, and restoration. Depending on
the objectives of an assessment, availability of resources, and degree of confidence required in
the results, there are three levels of effort available to address these three tasks. This paper
describes the development and use of synoptic land cover maps (Level 1) to assess wetland
condition. If one applies this assessment and detects a problem or irregular "signal" within a
specific area relative to an established or expected reference condition, then rapid ground
reconnaissance (Level 2) or intensive assessments (Level 3) using Hydrogeomorphic (HGM)
Functional Models and/or Indices of Biological Integrity (IBIs) can be used to diagnose specific
stressors. To illustrate the application of this method, 7 watersheds were investigated
representing a range of areas (89-777 km2), land uses, and ecoregions found in the Mid-Atlantic
region. Level 1 disturbance scores were based on land cover in 1-km radius circles centered on
randomly-selected wetlands in each watershed. On a standardized, 100-point, human-
disturbance scale, with 100 being severely degraded and 1 being the most ecologically intact, the
range of scores for the 7 watersheds was a relatively pristine score of 4 to a moderately degraded
score of 66. This entire process can be conducted in a GIS-capable office with readily available
data and without engaging in extensive field investigations. We recommend that states begin the
process of adopting this approach as a first step toward determining the condition of wetlands.
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ReVA MA1A Conference
Evaluating Shoreline Conditions at Different Spatial Scales - Implications as
an Ecological Indicator
Marcia R. Berman. Donna M. Bilkovic, Tamia Rudnicky, and Carl Hershner
Center for Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute of Marine Science,
School of Marine Science, P.O. Box 1346, Gloucester Point, VA 23062
The EAGLES Atlantic Slope Consortium (ASC) seeks to identify ecological indicators of
aquatic health for the Mid-Atlantic region. The high degree of variability across the landscape
combined with a desire to define indicators that can be applied at different landscape scales
presents an enormous challenge. Understanding the applicability and limitations of certain
indicators to spatial variability is paramount.
Within the coastal plain province of the Mid-Atlantic region, shoreline conditions are
being assessed as a metric of aquatic health. Even within this geomorphic province significant
variability occurs in scale of observable features. Therefore, the scale at which shoreline
conditions are assessed versus the spatiality over which these assessments are applied is an
important consideration.
During the spring and summer of 2002, a large scale field effort surveyed shoreline
conditions along estuary segments identified as study sites for various research components of
the ASC. Research to determine utilization of these segments by finfish, benthic macro-
invertebrates, and birds is ongoing. The shoreline assessment will be used to evaluate potential
impacts shore conditions have on biota within these groups. As structured, the survey assesses
all points along the shoreline. Conditions related to riparian land use, bank characteristics,
vegetative properties, and shoreline alterations are logged continuously using GPS technology.
GIS is used to process and analyze data. The continuum of data collection allows data to be
grouped at various scales. Statistical sorting and comparisons between datasets sampled at
different spatial scales will be analyzed and discussed.
Session One - May 13, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Using Regional Models to Assess the Relative Effects of Stressors on Stream
Ecological Integrity
Lester L. Yuan
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Mail Code 8623D, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW,
Washington, DC 20460
Regional data can provide a valuable baseline against which the ecological condition of
smaller watersheds within the region can be assessed. An approach for incorporating regional
data into local assessments has been developed as follows. First, data from the Mid-Atlantic
Highlands region were used to estimate associations between in-stream stressor levels and
biological impairment. Then, a second set of stressor data from a smaller study area within the
region was analyzed, using geostatistical interpolations to estimate stressor levels for unsampled
streams. Interpolated stressor data were then scaled using the regional stressor-response models,
so that the effects of stressors could be compared using a common measurement unit. That is,
stressors were compared in terms of their effects upon a single ecological endpoint. Scaled
stressor levels exhibited distinct spatial patterns: different stressors were important in different
regions within the study area. Stressors also differed in the extent to which they could be
represented with spatial interpolation. Physical habitat variables depended strongly on local
conditions and were not amenable to interpolation, while chemical stressors were more strongly
autocorrelated and could be interpolated.
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Invasive Species: An Important Stressor in the Mid-Atlantic Area
James K. Andreasen and Daniel A. Kluza
'National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development,
U.S. EPA, Washington, DC 20460-0001
Non-indigenous invasive species are a significant, but often overlooked problem in the
Mid-Atlantic states. About 280 species of invasive non-native plants are known to affect natural
areas and appear to be one of the principal stressors threatening the vitality and sustainability of
our forested ecosystems. Pennsylvania listed competition from exotic species as a leading cause
of the demise of native species, second only to direct habitat loss resulting from sprawl. These
invasive species cover a wide variety of organisms, including noxious weeds, numerous fish and
aquatic invertebrates, birds, mammals, and a wide range of microbial agents impacting
agricultural, veterinary, wildlife and human health.
A species' geographic distribution is the result of complex interactions of historical and
ecological factors, and present serious challenges for modeling. We have been working with an
ecological niche model that uses the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP, a
machine-learning algorithm) to provide an effective solution to predicting where a species might
spread following introduction to a new area. Species' ecological niches can be modeled, and
their geographic distributions predicted with high statistical confidence. This tool provides a
powerful new arsenal of procedures for many applications based on species' distributions, such
as modeling spread of emerging diseases, anticipating species' invasions, designing
reintroduction programs, and developing optimal conservation strategies.
GARP is another tool that can help decision makers and environmental managers make
better, and more timely, decisions. This presentation will demonstrate the utility of GARP using
data from a variety of species that have been modeled.
Session One - May 13, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Environmental Indicators for Water Quality and Aquatic Ecosystem
Management: Interviews of Government Officials in the Atlantic Slope
James S. Shortle1, James C. Finley2, Robert E O'Connor3, Ann N Fisher4, Amy N. Balog5, and
M. Jennison Kipp5
1 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania
State University, University Park, PA 16802
2 Associate Professor, Department of Forest Resources, Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA 16802
3 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA 16802
4 Senior Scientist, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
5 Graduate Research Assistant, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural
Sociology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
Hundreds of environmental scientists and managers across the Atlantic Slope region face
a common challenge in their daily work: how to measure the health of water resources in ways
that foster responsible decision-making and advance successful management strategies. We
conducted interviews with 34 officials from state agencies and interstate commissions to learn
how water quality indicators are being developed and used to respond to this challenge.
Sentiments toward the use of environmental indicators range from enthusiasm about current and
future use to frustration when using water quality indicators leads to little tangible progress. Yet
among this divergence of opinions, several common themes emerged.
We learned that in recent years there has been a strong demand by environmental
management agencies to develop and use water quality indicator data. Suites of indicator data
with issue-dependent components are the most useful to water quality managers because they
tend to provide a more accurate picture of the health of a water resource or ecosystem. Agencies
face a wide range of technical, financial and logistical constraints when developing, collecting
and using water quality indicators. Thus, respondents report limited ability to describe
conditions with both depth and accuracy and to identify potential stressors with confidence.
When reliable and issue-relevant indicator data are available, stakeholders find the information
most useful when it is converted into various formats and communicated in creative ways.
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Identification of Lands Important for Protecting Water Quality and
Watershed Integrity in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Stephanie Painton-Orndorff \ Albeit Todd2, and Carin Bisland3
1 University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science,
2 USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Area State and Private Forestry, and
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, all located at Chesapeake Bay Program,
410 Severn Avenue, Annapolis, MD 21403
The Chesapeake Bay requires aggressive efforts to restore and protect critical areas and
reduce pollutants. The Chesapeake 2000 Agreement offered a blueprint for restoration with
unprecedented focus on conservation of valuable lands to meet long-term water quality and
living resource goals. Resource lands (forests, farms, and wetlands) are under stress from both
land use change and environmental stresses. The Chesapeake Bay Program was charged with
identifying resource lands in the watershed that have the highest water quality, habitat, cultural
and economic value and are the most vulnerable to loss. To identify the lands important for
maintaining water quality and watershed integrity, a GIS model was developed that integrates
various data sources, maps the coincident areas important for water quality (e.g., steep slopes,
highly erodible soils, etc.), and highlights areas that are a priority for conservation. Thirteen
variables were mapped and assessed in this model, with seven being analyzed at a 30 meter
resolution and four being summarized by watershed, including ReVA indicators. Each variable
was assigned a weight from 0 to 10 to emphasize variables with a greater influence on water
quality. In addition, the variables were given value ranges based on their influence on water
quality and scored from 0 (no influence) to 4 (highest influence). For each variable, the weight
was multiplied by the score and assigned to each grid cell. Finally, all the variables were
summed to highlight important resource lands to conserve for the protection of water quality and
watershed integrity in the Chesapeake Bay watershed.
Session One - May 13, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Landscape Ecological Assessment of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Ted Weber
Maryland Department of Natural Resources
The Chesapeake Bay Watershed, located in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States,
is experiencing rapid habitat loss and fragmentation from sprawling low-density development.
The bay itself is heavily stressed by excess sediment and nutrient runoff. Three states, the
District of Columbia, and the federal government signed an agreement in 2000 to address these
problems. The commitments included an assessment of the watershed's resource lands, and
targeting the most valued lands for protection. As part of this task, the Resource Lands
Assessment identified an ecological network comprised of large contiguous blocks (hubs) of
forests, wetlands, and streams, interconnected by corridors to allow animal and plant propagule
dispersal and migration. Hubs were prioritized by ecoregion, by analyzing a variety of ecological
parameters, including: rare species presence, rarity and population viability; vegetation and
vertebrate richness; habitat area, condition, and diversity; intactness and remoteness;
connectivity potential; and the nature of the surrounding landscape. We found that much of the
watershed was still fairly intact, although this varied dramatically by ecoregion. Current
protection also varied, and an assessment of vulnerability will help focus protection efforts
among the most valuable hubs and corridors.
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ReVA MA1A Conference
The Effect of Broad-Scale Habitat Condition on the Location and Quality of
Migratory Pathways
Roger Tankersley, Jr.1 and Kenneth H. Orvis 2
1 Tennessee Valley Authority, Norris, TN 37828
2 Department of Geography, University of Tennessee Knoxville, Knoxville, TN 37996
Long term population monitoring via the Breeding Bird Survey reveals a complex
geographic pattern of population decline and recovery for forest passerine landbirds. Intact
migratory routes are critical for population stability, and mortality along migratory pathways
may be significant. Yet we know almost nothing about the spatial patterns of available stopovers
or the possible migratory pathways that connect optimal stopovers. We present a spatial analysis
of stopover habitat availability and then model potential migratory pathways between optimal
stopovers in the Eastern United States. Using models of fixed orientation and fixed nightly flight
distance between stopovers during spring migration, we explore whether an inherited migratory
program of flight direction and habitat preference is sufficient to insure a successful migration
across the modern landscape.
The northeast-southwest trending Appalachian mountains provide an abundance of
suitable habitat, and our results suggest that northeast bound migrants may be more successful
than migrants following other orientations. A lack of optimal habitat at key locations in the
Southeast causes many pathways to fail, and our results suggest that migrants may benefit from
an increase in forest landcover in areas with extensive agriculture or urban development. If
conservation and management plans are to succeed in conserving migrant bird populations, local
goals and priorities must reflect the regional needs of migrants across the length and breadth of
migratory pathways. Landscape-scale research such as ours can provide a regional framework
for local conservation.
Session One - May 13, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
SmartConservation™ - An Opportunity to Integrate ReVA/MAIA with a
'Bottom-Up' Conservation Assessment Web-Tool
Clare Billett1 and Robert Cheetham2
1 Natural Lands Trust (NLT), Inc., Media, PA 19063
2 Avencia, Inc. Philadelphia, PA 19107
How do non-profits, foundations and government agencies decide which conservation
projects are 'best' to implement or fund in their service areas? SmartConservation™ is a tool
developed by NLT and Avencia to assess potential conservation sites through a standardized
conservation science-based approach. The process relies on GIS and web technologies that use
publicly-available data verified by site condition groundtruthing. It seeks to provide cost-
effective, relative, standardized conservation site prioritizations based on indices that measure or
infer quality.
SmartConservation™ also has enormous potential to integrate seamlessly with
ReVA/MAIA to facilitate serving super-regional data not otherwise available for local decision-
making and implementation - helping to make environmental health indices such as atmospheric
deposition available and relevant locally. It can also help to implement various 'top-down'
conservation or biodiversity classifications or plans by ensuring that the 'best' sites
representative of conservation resources are targeted when considering conservation resource
portfolio design.
SmartConservation™ offers opportunities to leverage, screen and coordinate
conservation resources and actions through a politically appealing 'bottom-up' approach by
engaging a large but relatively unsophisticated conservation practioner population and providing
them with tools to make standardized, relative, comparable and repeatable conservation-science
based site assessments. This approach should not only refine the flow of scarce conservation
funding while still making user's interest in local conservation sites relevant within a scalable
spectrum of regional-to-local conservation values, but will also facilitate inventory cost sharing
for site screening and assessment, thus improving capacity to achieve conservation goals faster,
better and smarter.
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Exploring Connections Between Ecological Condition and Human Health:
County-Level Aggregation for Maryland
John F. Paul
National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
U.S. EPA, Mail Drop B205-01, Raleigh, NC 27711
Eco-human connectivity is a term used for relationships between ecological systems and
human health. The implications are that if we want to protect both the environment and human
health, we could achieve both concurrently if we understand eco-human connectivities. It is
hypothesized that a web of causation exists linking conditions of ecological systems and human
health outcomes. This link is not necessarily a cause-effect relationship; rather, some of the
stressors/drivers of change for ecological conditions are some of the same stressors/drivers for
health outcomes. In effect, changes which impact the environment also affect our health. To
illustrate the connectivity, a case study was conducted using data for the state of Maryland
aggregated at the county level for the connectivity of ecological condition of streams and infant
mortality. Data sources included the Maryland Biological Stream Survey for streams, CDC
Wonder for infant mortality, and NOAA's Coastal Assessment and Data Synthesis System for
stressors/drivers. The stream condition-infant mortality connectivity was developed in terms of
the probability that infant mortality in a county was higher than 10 per 1000. This probability is
expressed as a function of exceeding a given value for percent of stream miles within the county
with impairment. Correlation analyses indicated that stream condition in counties in Maryland
was associated with farming practices (dollar values, crop land, fertilizer and pesticide/herbicide
use), land use, and ethnicity of population, while infant mortality was associated with farming
practices, socioeconomics (financial condition of household, characteristics of houses) and
characteristics of population (ethnic background, age, education, etc.). The stressors/drivers in
common are farming practices and characteristics of the human population. The probability of
infant mortality exceeding 10/1000 is higher for those counties with a large fraction of their
stream miles impaired. Results suggest that more effective protection of both the environment
and human health can be achieved by managing the root drivers in webs of causation. Additional
applications with other health outcomes and in other geographic areas are needed to validate the
findings from this case study.
Session One - May 13, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Connecting Socio-Economic Well-Being to Regional Scale Ecological
Assessments
Lisa A. Wainger. Dennis M. King, and Elizabeth W. Price
King & Associates, 234 C Street, Suite 1, Solomons, MD 20688
The quality of life in communities depends, in part, on the flow of ecosystems goods and
services they receive. The level of dependency differs by location because of differences in
economic and socio-demographic conditions and preferences. The vulnerability of communities
to changes in ecosystems is defined by the strength of these dependencies and on the scarcity and
substitutability of ecosystem goods and services.
We are developing indicators that reflect these underlying dependencies of communities,
defined at various spatial scales, on natural systems. We assess the degree of dependence by
linking spatial economic information to demographic and ecological databases to analyze likely
preferences, vulnerabilities, or risk capacities. Differences by location help demonstrate the
relative value of ecosystem services across regional landscapes. We focus on the vulnerability of
goods and services that cannot be readily substituted by importing to the region, and we assess
exposure to related environmental threats. The indicators were developed to support the EPA
Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program in developing regional datasets for
informing environmental policy decisions.
We use the indicators to assess the strength of indirect links between ecosystems services
and their socio-economic value as reflected in economic output and jobs, recreational
opportunities, aesthetics, and the management of various types of household-level risks.
Communities are given "risk profiles" based on their scores on a variety of indicators of current
conditions and leading indicators of change. Risk is assessed based on identified thresholds,
relative vulnerability among the region, or on expected relationships between stressors and
ecosystem and human responses. The indicators provide a means to evaluate the desirable
resource protection level given known environmental risks and various social and economic
considerations.
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ReVA MAI A Conference
ReVA's Web-Based Application: A Tool to Facilitate Environmental
Decision-Making
Michael O'Connell
Waratah Corporation, 2505 Meridian Pkwy, Suite 175, Durham, NC 27713
EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) project is developing and testing
approaches to conduct comparative environmental risk assessments at the regional scale. These
approaches consider impacts to ecological, human, and fiscal health endpoints, and seek
objective and quantifiable answers to questions such as, "What are the greatest threats
accompanying socioeconomic growth in a region and which ecosystems are most vulnerable?"
ReVA builds on the environmental monitoring base developed by the Environmental Monitoring
and Assessment Program (EMAP) and monitoring done by other agencies, and incorporates the
latest developments in modeling and assessment. The research is being conducted in concert
with EPA Region 3 as part of the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) and includes
collaboration across ORD and with other federal agencies (USFS, USGS, TV A).
ReVA's web-based application facilitates decision-making by allowing users to view
maps of relationships between individual indicators, or integrated indices of relative
vulnerability. Trade-offs can be evaluated by comparing different sets of indicators (e.g. those
relating to water quality or human health) and by differentially weighting selected indicators (or
decision criteria) based on stakeholder input. The web site incorporates future scenarios as well,
allowing insights into the impacts associated with projected land use change and population
growth. The web-based application has been developed as a flexible framework that can be used
in any region, and with any scale data. This tool will be a critical aid to state and local
governments, and regional EPA offices and planning bodies in developing efficient and effective
strategies for community-based environmental protection.
Session One - May 13, 2003
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Session Two
Forecasting Environmental Condition and Vulnerabilities
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Modeling Heat and Air Quality Impacts of Changing
Urban Land Uses and Climate
Patrick L. Kinney1, Christopher Small1, William D. Solecki2, David Werth3, Roni
Avissar3, Christian Hogrefe4' Michael Ku5, Kevin Civerolo5, Cynthia Rosenzweig6, Joyce
E. Rosenthal1, Kim Knowlton1, Anjali Puri1, Stuart Gaffin1, Tracey Holloway1, Richard
Goldberg6, Barry Lynn6
1 Columbia University
2 Montclair State University
3 Duke University
4 State University of NY at Albany
5NYS Dept. of Environmental Conservation
6 NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Objectives: Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles represent two
significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. Both of these stressors may
be impacted by future changes in the global climate as well as continued expansion of human-dominated
land uses in the region. To date, there has been little effort to link climate change and land use/land cover
(LU/LC) models in assessments of potential future impacts of heat stress and air quality.
The proposed study will link human dimension and natural sciences models describing the
behaviors of these systems to yield improved tools for assessing the future public health impacts of
climate change in the context of existing environmental stressors. The model will be applied to the 31
county NY metropolitan east coast (MEC) region. The following questions will be addressed:
1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the
next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of LU/LC and climate change in the MEC
region?
2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (03) and airborne
particulate matter smaller than 2.5 jim in diameter (PM2 5) change over the next 80 years due to a
range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region?
3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the MEC region?
4. How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as
a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the MEC region?
Approach: An integrated model will be developed linking models for LU/LC, global climate
change, regional climate change, atmospheric chemistry and pollution transport, and the impacts of heat
stress and air quality on public health. Three scenarios of LU/LC change and two global climate scenarios
(run with the GISS GCM) will be analyzed. Impacts will be examined during the decades of the 2020's,
2050's and 2080's.
Expected Results: The research will provide improved tools for integrated assessments of future
public health risks due to heat and air quality changes driven by climate change/variability and changes in
land use. In addition, the research will lead to a better understanding of the driving forces behind long-
term environmental changes, and the role played by socio-economic and demographic factors in the
resulting human impacts.
Session Two - May 14, 2003
23
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Life-History Traits and Landscape Patterns: Predicting Population
Persistence in the Mid-Atlantic Region
Joshua J. Lawler1. Nathan H. Schumaker2, and Denis White2
1 National Research Council and U.S. EPA, Corvallis, OR
2 U.S. EPA, Corvallis, OR
Large scale conservation planning is often based on the representation of species,
habitats, or natural resources, but seldom considers whether the selected areas are capable of
supporting populations that will persist into the future. Many reserve-selection methodologies
used in conservation planning ignore details of landscape pattern that can have profound effects
on the dynamics of animal species populations. For instance, the size and shape of habitat
patches as well as the degree of connectivity among patches all potentially influence population
growth rates and extinction probabilities by affecting individual movement, survivorship, and
reproduction. Population responses to habitat loss and fragmentation depend in part on species-
specific life-history traits including home range sizes, dispersal capabilities, and age-structured
survivorship and reproduction. Thus predicting population persistence in fragmented habitats
requires an understanding of how life-history traits and landscape patterns interact to influence
population dynamics. We used PATCH, a spatially explicit population dynamics model, to
investigate the relationship between specific life-history traits and population persistence in a
complex, fragmented landscape. We used 30-m National Land Cover Data for the Mid-Atlantic
region of the continental U.S. to compare the relative effects of age-structured reproduction,
survivorship, dispersal behavior, and habitat affinities on simulated population persistence. Our
results provide a measure of the relative influence of these different traits on the viability of
wildlife populations distributed across the region. Our analysis also produced map-based
estimates of population persistence for species with contrasting life-history traits. These results
form the basis of an improved methodology for prioritizing areas for conservation actions.
24
Session Two - May 14, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Vulnerability of Mid-Atlantic Forested Watersheds to
Timber Harvest Disturbance
Rex H. Schaberg1. Robert C. Abt2
1 Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Box 90328, Durham, NC 27708
2 Department of Forestry, North Carolina State University, Box 8008, Raleigh, NC 27695
Forested watersheds of the Mid-Atlantic region are an important economic resource.
They are also critical for maintaining water quality, sustaining important ecological services, and
providing habitat to many animal and plant species of conservation concern. These forests are
vulnerable to disturbance and fragmentation from changing patterns of land use in the Mid-
Atlantic region, and from harvests of commercially mature and relatively inexpensive timber. In
turn, demand for timber is derived from broader economic conditions in the lumber, pulp, and
paper industries. The USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) compiles data on forest
condition by state and county. The spatial locations of sample plots are intentionally obscured
due to concerns over landowner privacy. We have transformed these FIA data from a county to
a watershed base; geocorrected the data to the degree possible, and projected trends in timber
growth, inventory, and harvest to 2020, based on likely future scenarios of timber prices and
demand. Using a timber economics forecasting model (SRTS) we have characterized the relative
vulnerability of USGS HUC 6 watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic to increasing harvest pressures.
These pressures result from changes in technology including OSB plants and chip mills, regional
economic conditions, and timber volumes in regional inventory. Early recognition of prevailing
economic trends which encourage the fragmentation of mature forests due to increasing timber
harvests may provide managers and policy makers with a planning tool to mitigate undesirable
impacts.
Session Two - May 14, 2003
25
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ReVA MAI A Conference
SmartConservation™ Tools: Automating a Conservation Value Assessment
Model for Southeast Pennsylvania
Robert M. Cheetham1 and Clare Billett2
'Avencia, Inc., Philadelphia, PA 19107
2Natural Lands Trust (NLT), Inc., Media, PA 19063
For the past three years, the Natural Lands Trust has been developing a land assessment
process called the Smart Conservation™ model. This model encapsulates a methodology for
identifying, evaluating and prioritizing landscape resources using criteria developed with
assistance from more than 80 regional conservation scientists and practitioners. Through a series
of GIS operations, spreadsheet calculations and decision software, any site in Southeast
Pennsylvania can be evaluated and ranked according to a standardized scale for its conservation
value, habitat health and viability.
For the past year NLT and Avencia have been developing a set of web-based tools that
automate this process and make it available to a class of users that would not necessarily have
access to the region-wide spatial data, GIS software, and other resources that would normally be
necessary to implement a conservation value assessment model. We believe that in addition to
the southeast Pennsylvania community for which they are intended, these tools have relevance to
multiple stakeholders engaged in conservation, preservation and restoration activities across
North America.
The presentation will demonstrate the Smart Conservation™ decision support system and
tools, discuss the technical architecture upon which they are based and suggest ways in which
they might be generalized and re-used in other contexts. A separate presentation will discuss the
Smart Conservation™ model.
26
Session Two - May 14, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological
Consequences for a Future Environment
William Kepner1. Darius Semmens2, David Goodrich2, David Mouat3, Scott Bassett3
1 U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development, Las Vegas, NV
2 USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, AZ
3 Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide
a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and
consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has
undergone rapid changes in land use and cover and subsequently is facing keen environmental
crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with
change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The
previous work has primarily dealt with resources of habitat and groundwater related to human
development patterns and preferences. In the present study, future options were examined
relative to their impact on surface water conditions, e.g. sediment yield and surface runoff. These
hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in
the future using hydrological process models and spatially oriented land use models based on
stakeholder preferences and historical growth.
Session Two - May 14, 2003
27
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Environmental Influences on Genetic Diversity of Creek Chubs in the Mid-
Atlantic Region of the USA
Suzanne A. Christ, Mark J. Baglev, and Frank H. McCormick
U.S. EPA, Ecological Exposure Research Division, Cincinnati, OH 45268
Analysis of genetic diversity within and among populations of stream fishes may provide
a powerful method for assessing the status and trends in the condition of aquatic ecosystems.
We analyzed mitochondrial DNA sequences (590 bases of cytochrome B) and nuclear DNA loci
(109 amplified fragment length polymorphisms; AFLP) of creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus)
populations from ten sites located in coal mining regions of Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
This study represents the first phase of a larger study that will assess genetic diversity of multiple
fish species throughout EPA's Mid-Atlantic Assessment Area (MAIA). Creek chub were
strongly genetically differentiated, as the among-population component of genetic variance
explained 71% of all mitochondrial diversity and 13% of nuclear DNA diversity. Genetic
diversity within populations was assessed in relation to six independent environmental factors
derived by principal component analysis (PCA) of 25 aquatic variables measured at each site. A
PCA factor related to total nitrogen, phosphorous, and organic carbon content explained 51% of
differences in the levels of mitochondrial diversity within populations, based on forward
stepwise multiple regression. Three PCA factors explained 98% of the differences in nuclear
DNA diversity within populations. The three factors were associated with latitudinal clines
(43%) nitrogen/phosphorous/carbon (35%) and pH/ammonium (18%). A PCA factor related to
geochemistry, which accounted for the most environmental variation, was not significantly
associated with genetic diversity. These results provide evidence that environmental factors can
strongly influence genetic diversity within populations, thus impacting their future vulnerability
to environmental stresses.
This abstract has been subjected to Agency review and approved for publication.
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Session Two - May 14, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Assessing the Vulnerability of Resource Lands in the Chesapeake Bay
Watershed
Peter R. Claggett1, Claire A. Jantz2, Scott J. Goetz2, Stephanie Painton-Orndorff3,
Menchu Martinez4
1 U.S. Geological Survey, 410 Severn Avenue, Suite 109, Annapolis, MD 21403
2 University of Maryland, Department of Geography, College Park, MD 20742
3The Nature Conservancy, 500 N. Third St., 6th Floor, Harrisburg, PA 17101
4 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 410 Severn Avenue, Suite 109, Annapolis, MD 21403
The Chesapeake Bay Program is near completion of its assessment of resource lands in
the Bay watershed. Resource lands are areas that are valued for their water quality, wildlife
habitat, and cultural and/or economic functions. Resource lands will be prioritized for protection
based on their resource value and vulnerability. Vulnerable lands are areas that are both exposed
and susceptible to sources of impairment. The initial phase of the vulnerability assessment will
focus on measuring the threat from development to resource lands in the Baltimore-Washington
corridor. Development threats will be evaluated using a modified version of a supply-demand-
allocation model developed by Theobald (2001) that forecasts the spread of residential housing
units. The model results will be generalized to create a threat surface map for the region overlaid
on the inventory of resource lands. Both the original and generalized model results will be
compared to original and generalized results from the SLEUTH (Slope, Land Use, Excluded
land, Urban extent, Transportation networks, Hillshade) model that has been run for the same
region by the University of Maryland. The challenges of assessing the vulnerability of a variety
of resource lands and differentiating between the threats from land cover vs. land use conversion
will be discussed. Further discussion will examine some of the factors that may affect the
susceptibility of resource lands to impairment such as slope, vegetation type, soils, land value,
etc.
Session Two - May 14, 2003
29
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ReVA MAIA Conference
The Effect of Land-Cover Change on Nutrient Export Variance
James D. Wickham1. Chad Cross2, Kurt Riitters3, Timothy Wade1, Bruce Jones2
1 U.S. EPA (E243-05), National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
2 U.S. EPA, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Las Vegas, NV 89119
3 U.S. Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
The effect of land cover on watershed nutrient export is well documented. As a
watershed's dominant land cover changes from forest to agriculture and urban, variance in
nutrient export tends to increase in addition to average values. Because of high variability for
mixed-use watersheds, detection of significant changes in average nutrient export values is less
meaningful, and lack of recognition of the interaction between exogenous factors and land-cover
composition has led some to conclude that inter-annual precipitation is more important than
land-cover change. The effect of land-cover change on nutrient export is better captured by
detection of significant changes in variance.
Land-cover change in forest, urban, and agriculture were estimated for watersheds in
Maryland, and simulated nutrient export was generated using both "before" and "after" land-
cover maps to identify watersheds where land-cover change has led to significant changes in
variance. The results are related to meeting Chesapeake Bay nutrient export reduction goals.
30
Session Two - May 14, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Making a Difference: Climate Impacts Assessment and Advances in Regional
Resource Management
Joel D. Scheraga
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development
(8601-D), 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20460
Recent assessments have identified risks and opportunities posed by climate change to
the Mid-Atlantic region. Systems sensitive to weather and climate change include air quality,
water supplies, coastal zones, agriculture, silvaculture, human health, ecosystems and
biodiversity. The region has a significant capacity to cope with change through adaptation; while
there are several sensitive systems, not all are vulnerable. To help decision makers integrate
assessment findings into resource management decisions, advances have been made in the types
of information derived from policy-focused assessments and the ways in which the information
is provided. (1) Improvements are being made in the processes for eliciting the types of
information decision makers need, and the form in which it is needed. (2) Assessments are
increasingly evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of adaptation strategies, including
requirements for effective implementation. (3) The characterization and quantification of
uncertainties is improving, and better explanations are given for the implications of the
uncertainties for outcomes of concern. (4) Climate change is placed in the context of multiple
stressors. (5) When resources managers need decision support tools, tools are developed in
partnership with the users. (6) Value of information exercises are conducted to prioritize
uncertainties and focus the research agenda, to ensure that timely and useful information is
provided on an ongoing basis. (7) Strategies for communicating assessment findings are being
improved to increase public understanding of actions that can be taken to effectively adapt to
change. These advances have already resulted in successful efforts to adapt to climate change.
Session Two - May 14, 2003
31
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Urban Areas and Contributions to Regional Environmental Quality
Steward T.A. Pickett
Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545
The Baltimore Ecosystem Study Long-Term Ecological Research is a collaborative
project to understand metropolitan Baltimore, MD, as an ecological system. The project
integrated ecological, socio-economic, and physical research. We have documented
hydrological drought in urban riparian zones associated with increased runoff, decreased
infiltration, and extreme down cutting by flashy urban streams. Denitrification, which can
reduce aquatic nitrate pollution, is reduced. Drying in riparian soils is associated with the
invasion of upland plant species, several of which are invasive exotics. Management options
range from short-term decisions about the trees to plant in damaged riparian corridors, to more
extensive and adaptive steps to increase infiltration to urban ground water, and to restore stream
morphology to reconnect floodplains with stream hydrology.
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Session Two - May 14, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Web Data Presentation and Analysis - Made Easy?
Intertwining Technology, Environmental Evaluation, and Culture
Cynthia Curtis
U.S. EPA, Region 5, Chicago, IL
U.S. EPA Region 5 has developed a pilot State of the Environment intranet web site. The
concept is readily embraced by many, but the implementation is not so straightforward. Creating
a website with multiple environmental issues involving information from multiple programs
presents both technical and cultural challenges. How do you design a web based tool to best
illustrate an environmental issue? What does it take to clearly display data from multiple sources
and present a bottom line analysis useful for a decision maker? How can the information and
analysis be easily updated? How would the supporting information such as the quality of the
data, sources, models, and metadata be best displayed? We aren't exactly sure either, but we are
working on it, and we have some stories to tell about the system and its features.
Session Two - May 14, 2003
33
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ReVA MAI A Conference
A Site Prioritization Procedure for Monitoring Plots: Combining Ecological
and Social Criteria
Lome P. Bennett1 and Robert J. Milne2
1 Department of Geography, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON NIG 2W1
2 Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University,
Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5
A methodology was developed to prioritize the suitability of landscape habitats for long-
term monitoring of avian populations, including vulnerable species, both to enhance assessment
of changes in ecological resources and to facilitate land use planning at the watershed scale.
This paper argues that a successful monitoring program begins with a site prioritization
procedure that integrates ecological and socio-economic indicators, particularly those dependent
on community involvement. The evaluation strategy in this study combines biological and
habitat indicators such as vulnerable species and habitat connectivity with community and
agency variables such as accessibility, volunteer commitment and agency priorities. In total, a
set of twelve indicators was identified with equal representation between ecological and social
variables. This strategy was applied to predominantly agricultural landscapes, which are
experiencing increasing human pressures, in three subwatersheds of the Credit River Valley,
Southern Ontario. Specifically, bird populations were recorded during the breeding seasons of
2000-2002 in a variety of land cover types including wetlands, natural and cultural woodlands,
and abandoned shrubland, as mapped by Credit Valley Conservation following Ecological Land
Classification guidelines. The species were identified as vulnerable based on regional and
national classifications. The results revealed that smaller, upland deciduous woodlots were poor
candidates for long-term monitoring, while abandoned fields and plantations, which are typically
targeted for development, scored considerably higher than expected. Wetlands, including
deciduous and coniferous swamps and riparian channels were the highest scoring sites.
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Session Two - May 14, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Modeling and Multiobjective Risk Decision Tools for Assessment and
Management of Ecosystems
Benjamin F. Hobbs1 and Joseph F. Koonce2
'The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
2Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44120
Restoration of "ecological health" or "ecological integrity" is often an avowed goal of
resource and environmental managers. For instance, in the context of the Great Lakes Water
Quality Agreement, U.S. EPA and Environment Canada are charged with restoring the physical,
chemical, and biological integrity of the Great Lakes ecosystems. Setting criteria for recovering
ecological integrity, in part, involves traditional water quality regulation of point and non-point
sources, but also involves making regulatory decisions that require balancing human uses of the
water resources. Regulation of fishing, navigation, recreation, drinking water, and other uses is
jurisdictionally complex and often requires trade-offs of stakeholder interests. We report on our
efforts to develop and test an integrated ecological assessment and decision methodology and its
application to the Lake Erie ecosystem. We designed the methodology to assist managers and
stakeholders involved in the U.S. EPA/Environment Canada Lake Erie Lakewide Management
Plan (LaMP) and other management processes to define objectives and evaluate tradeoffs and
risks associated with future uses. The research plan built on existing initiatives and addressed a
range of fishery and water quality management concerns: 1) interaction of invasions of exotic
species, nutrient reductions, and fishery harvests; 2) influence of nearshore and tributary habitat
on offshore community structure and productivity; and 3) effects of alteration of offshore
community on contaminant body burdens of fish.
Using an ecological modeling framework and ecological risk analysis to address the
problem of uncertainty, we show that heuristic applications of the LEEM modeling can lead to
multi-fishery management rules that explicitly incorporate the contribution of various sources
(phosphorus loading level, invasion of exotic species, and habitat availability) of uncertainty to
fishery management decisions. We also show that multiobjective Bayesian decision analysis can
be used to evaluate the effect of ecological uncertainties on management, and to quantify the
value of information that might be obtained from research projects. Finally, our methodological
work helped support the interpretation and ranking by LaMP participants of alternative futures
for Lake Erie using a "fuzzy cognitive map" methodology; this lead to the development of LaMP
goals for ecosystem recovery. In general, our results suggest that heuristic ecological modeling
combined with multiobjective risk analysis provides a workable framework to join quantitative
analysis of trade-offs with uncertainty and value judgments in management of complex
ecosystems.
This research is funded by EPA's Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program Grant # R82 -5150
Session Two - May 14, 2003
35
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Building a Regional Monitoring Framework: Integrating Local Programs and
the Ontario Niagara Escarpment Monitoring Program
Robert Milne1. Lome Bennett2, Graham Whitelaw3 and James Hamilton1
1 Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University,
Waterloo, ON Canada N2L 3C5
2 Department of Geography, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON Canada NIG 2W1
3 School of Planning, University of Waterloo, Waterloo ON Canada N2L 3G1
This paper provides an assessment of current monitoring programs operating across the
Niagara Escarpment Region in Southern Ontario, Canada. These programs operate at various
levels of decision-making ranging from local to regional scale and measure a variety of
environmental resources such as bird populations, forest health and climate change. Currently,
there exists a regional monitoring program, the Ontario Niagara Escarpment (ONE) Monitoring
Program, which provides an organizational strategy and a suite of environmental indicators but at
present there has been little program development nor coordination with local programs. This
study addresses two challenges of this program: (1) assessing the transfer of information from
the researchers to the decision-makers, including the analysis of the information and its
applicability in ecological planning and (2) developing a proper framework that can provide gap
analysis of monitoring information and generate the exchange of data between participating
organizations. The ONE Monitoring Program is concerned with the maintenance of the Niagara
Escarpment from a cumulative effects approach and combines a number of components
including habitat, water quality and recreational impact. In this study, a group of local
monitoring programs were assessed for the 'natural processes and habitats' component of the
ONE program. The assessment centered on (1) monitoring protocols, (2) applicability for
regional ecological planning, (3) transfer of information to management agencies, and (4) gaps
and overlap in data collection. This analysis has been used to provide recommendations to
strengthen the efficacy of the ONE Monitoring Program and to increase the exchange between
local programs as well as researchers and decision-makers.
36
Session Two - May 14, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Environmental Impacts of Dispersed Development from Federal
Infrastructure Projects
Mark T. Southerland
Versar, Inc., 9200 Rumsey Road, Columbia, MD 21045
Dispersed development, also referred to as urban growth or sprawl, is a pattern of low-
density development spread over previously rural landscapes. Such growth can result in adverse
impacts to air, water, and land, primarily through the accumulation of small effects. EPA is
charged with protecting public health and the environment, which includes consideration of
impacts from dispersed development. Specifically, EPA addresses dispersed development issues
associated with Clean Water Act Section 404 permits and Clean Air Act State Implementation
Plans and air conformity determinations, and has a Development, Community, and Environment
Division that participates in the Smart Growth Network, producing numerous analyses and
products to support smart growth planning and the reduction of environmental impacts. In
addition, because federal infrastructure projects can affect the progress of dispersed
development, the secondary impacts resulting from it must be assessed in documents prepared
under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This paper presents an approach that
EPA reviewers and EPA preparers of NEPA documents can use to provide accurate, realistic,
and consistent comments on the analysis of secondary impacts of dispersed development
resulting from federal infrastructure projects. Section 309 of the Clean Air Act requires that
EPA review and comment on federal agency NEPA documents. This approach focuses on what
issues reviewers should look for in the analysis, what practical considerations should be kept in
mind when reviewing the analysis, and what should be said in EPA comments concerning
potential environmental impacts and the adequacy of the analysis.
Session Two - May 14, 2003
37
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Session Three
Developing Management Strategies to Optimize the Future
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Sustainable Environment for Quality of Life (SEQL): Charlottes Region's
Integrated Environmental Initiative
Eric Ginsburg1. Chris Stoneman1, Rebecca Yarbrough2
'U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
2Program Administrator, Centralina Council of Governments
Like many areas in the southeast, the Charlotte, NC/Rock Hill, SC region is a highly
desirable area in which to live but faces many challenges associated with unprecedented growth:
sprawl, congestion, air and water quality problems and concern about its future quality of life.
To address these concerns, under a grant from the U.S. EPA, leaders from across the region have
started working together to actively determine the future quality of their region. This active
cooperation has included region-wide agreement to adopt a range of environmental measures for
air and water quality and land use. Leaders are also working together to develop an integrated
approach to regional planning for its future. The region's goal is to include environmental
impacts in local and regional planning and decision-making processes through development of a
model for coordinated, integrated planning on both a local and regional basis. The planning will
enable the area's leaders to evaluate future scenarios for the region that reflect choices they want
to make on a host of environmental and quality of life factors affecting the region. This
presentation will describe the process that the region has used to achieve regional cooperation
and the steps, information and tools being used to develop its integrated planning model. The
presentation will also describe what concerns regional leaders are likely to focus on as they look
into the future and how they will define success for that future.
Session Three - May 15, 2003
41
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Sustainability Indicators as a Communicative Tool - Building Bridges in
Pennsylvania
Kathi K. Beratan1. Shirley M. Loveless2, Paula J.S Martin3, Stanley J. Kabala4,
and Nancy P. Spyke5
'Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC
27708-0328
2Center for Sustainable Communities, Temple University, Ambler Campus, Ambler, PA 19002
Environmental Science and Studies Department, Juniata College, Huntingdon, PA 16652
"Environmental Science and Management Program, Duquesne University, Pittsburgh, PA 15282
5School of Law, Duquesne University, Pittsburgh, PA 15282
We interpret Sustainability as strategic planning that is integrative (across environmental,
social, and economic dimensions), coordinated (within and among governmental and non-
governmental organizations, across a range of scales), and adaptive. Many local resource
managers understand the importance of sustainability, but lack resources (money, staff, time) to
wade through the flood of information and figure out where to begin. A key challenge facing
state government agencies is to find ways to assist local governments to make this transition.
The PCIEP, a partnership between Pennsylvania State Government and the state's academic
community, is working to bridge the gaps - between policy makers and scientists, between state
and local governments, between local governments, and between governments and NGOs. A
first step in this long-term process is development of preliminary state-level sustainability
indicators. We then will work with local governments to develop locally relevant indicator sets
that are compatible with the state set. Different types of decisions are made at different
governmental levels, and different environmental, social, and economic processes operate at
these different scales. Thus, different indicators are needed for each level, with horizontal and
vertical integration required for effective coordination. Our user-centered information design
will focus on illuminating the connections between causes and effects so as to inform policy
development. We are using this effort to begin building communicative linkages that will allow
local concerns and conditions to inform state-level decision making, and state actions to promote
rather than hinder coordinated planning and sustainable decision making at local and regional
levels.
42
Session Three - May 15, 2003
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ReVA MAIA Conference
Strategic Partnership to Assess State-Level Vulnerabilities: Highlights of the
Maryland DNR - ReVA Cooperative Agreement
Bill Jenkins
Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Tawes Office Building E-2, Annapolis, MD
The Maryland Department of Natural Resources has been involved for the last five years
in developing data and scientifically defensible analytical tools that would allow the varied land
conservation and water quality improvement issues to be integrated so that program
implementation would be strategic ("best bang for the buck") and result in multiple objectives
being achieved. The Department is continuously evolving its analytical tools, and trying to make
the vast amounts of data and tools available to the public via the Internet. We are also
attempting to tackle more scientifically-based issues such as establishing and documenting
indicator thresholds, describing the utility of different indicators at different thresholds,
optimizing land conservation or best management practices, modeling different resource
management scenarios, integrating ecological value with ecosystem valuation techniques, and
determining how best to use different analytical tools to ensure integration and linkage across
spatial scales. This presentation will describe what the Department has done up to present, and
how a collaborative partnership with ReVA would enhance our analytical, and therefore
decision-making, capabilities.
Session Three - May 15, 2003
43
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Criteria for Prioritization of Ecosystem Restoration
Barbara H. Wilson1 and Eric E. Jorgensen2
1 Dynamac Corporation, 3601 Oakridge Blvd., Ada, OK 74820
2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development,
National Risk Management Laboratory, Ada, OK 74820
Prioritization of ecosystem restoration measures is important for state and federal
agencies, watershed coalitions, science advisory boards, and other groups responsible for
decision-making regarding restoration activities. Although widely utilized, the term "restoration
prioritization" does not have consistent usage or significance between users, thereby contributing
to poor communication and unrealized expectations. Literature and internet surveys were
conducted to identify the connotations and perspective conveyed when the term "restoration
prioritization" is used. Major search terms were "Restoration Prioritization", "Ecosystem
Prioritization", "Restoration Criteria", "Watershed Restoration", "Habitat Restoration", and
"Watershed Management". Although the majority of the restoration projects reviewed involved
watersheds, forests, deserts, grasslands, and plant and animal habitats were also considered.
Significant criteria important for prioritization included resource use as a drinking water supply,
inclusion on a state's 303(d) list, requirement for habitat critical for maintenance of sustainable
animal populations, and cost of the restoration project. GIS maps were frequently used to
identify the most damaged portions of a watershed or ecosystem. A database was created in
Excel that identified the watershed/ecosystem to be restored, its location, the HUC if available,
the resource to be restored, the restoration criteria employed, the restoration purpose/ objectives,
the restoration focus, important keywords, the agency or organization involved in the decision-
making process, and the reference of the article or source including internet addresses if
available. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views
and policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
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Session Three - May 15, 2003
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Geospatial Data for Environmental Assessments and Vulnerability Studies
John M. Morgan. III. Ph.D.. and Frederick W. Kutz, Ph.D.
Center for Geographic Information Sciences, Towson University
8000 York Road, Towson, MD 21252-0001
Over the past three years, the Towson University Center for Geographic Information
Sciences (CGIS) has been involved in a landscape characterization effort covering the
Chesapeake Bay and Mid-Atlantic region. The project has emphasized mapping impervious
surfaces, urban sprawl, forest fragmentation, and agricultural land. The CGIS has accomplished
these achievements with the support of the NASA/Raytheon Synergy program. The primary
purpose of this project has been to provide useful earth-science-related geospatial data for state
and local government agencies.
The presentation will highlight descriptions of (1) the acquisition and georeferencing of
36 scenes each of Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 images for 2000 and 2002 for the States of New
York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, the District of
Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia; (2) the development of a content-rich Web site
(Chesapeake.towson.edu) containing information on impervious surfaces, urban sprawl, and
forest fragmentation, as well as a tutorial on remote sensing and digital image processing; and (3)
the engagement of nearly 150 K-12 teachers in the Mid-Atlantic area in a highly regarded effort
to collect ground truth data in support of the landscape characterization effort.
The Web site contains a standalone GIS viewing package (MapViewer) as a free
download and several advanced Internet mapping applications using Environmental Systems
Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcIMS software.
Session Three - May 15, 2003
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Using the Mike 11 Hydrologic Model to Delineate Flood Prone Areas in
Smithfield, WV
Edward A. Watson
Canaan Valley Institute, P.O. Box 673, Davis, WV 26260
Smithfield, WV, has been plagued with frequent, damaging floods. A local stakeholder
group contacted the Canaan Valley Institute for assistance. Together, they agreed that a
hydrologic analysis of the watershed was necessary. Their intent was to determine the factors
that contribute to flooding and to delineate floodprone areas so that solutions to the stakeholders'
problems could be identified. The Mike 11 model was chosen to serve as the framework for the
study. The Mike 11 model produces easily interpretable graphic outputs depicting flood extent
and depth in either motion or static pictures. Watershed model development entailed creation of
a landcover/landuse dataset that was ground-truthed, acquisition of a LiDAR dataset for a high
resolution DEM of the floodprone areas, surveying cross-sections for verification of the LiDAR,
cataloging of all hydraulically significant structures such as bridges and culverts, and
interpretation of existing SSURGO soils data. In cooperation with the West Virginia Office of
Emergency Services, a network of stream and rain gages was installed for model calibration.
Once the model was calibrated, two, five, and ten inch storm events were simulated and
graphical outputs generated in the form of flood extent and depth maps, which allows residents
to consider the risks associated with where they live. The information generated will help the
stakeholders prioritize hazard mitigation projects and give them the documentation they need to
apply for FEMA assistance. The study has laid the groundwork for addressing the underlying
environmental issues of loss of riparian areas and functioning flood plains.
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The Mid-Atlantic Highlands Action Program: Transforming the Legacy
Thomas DeMoss, J. Randy Pomponio, Jennifer Newland
Canaan Valley Institute, P.O. Box 673, Thomas, WV 26260
In December 2002, Canaan Valley Institute (CVI) released a report entitled The Mid-
Atlantic Highlands Action Program: Transforming the Legacy. This report begins with a
characterization of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Highlands, discusses
current and future challenges to the region, and concludes with recommendations for the
formation of a regional Highlands Action Program (HAP). The report lays out a collaborative
approach for a program that will build on the opportunities that exist in the Highlands. The
vision for HAP is one of locally driven partnerships involving community groups, local, state
and federal agencies, industry groups, academic institutions, and private industry. These
partnerships will better meet the needs of local residents, and will use sound science to solve
environmental and economic problems. Based upon the science, indicators, and collaborative
input reflected within The Mid Atlantic Streams Assessment, The Ecological Assessment of the
United States Mid Atlantic Region, The Highlands Action Program: Transforming the Legacy,
and EPA's report to Congress entitled The State of the Mid Atlantic Highlands this program can
yield the following:
• 18,000 stream miles revitalized using collaborative and non- traditional measures
including the establishment of 5000 acres of riparian buffer, in stream habitat, and
watershed protection;
• 5000 square miles (3.2 million acres) of forest revitalization and restoration within
collaboratively designed ecological corridors;
• 105,954,000 tons/yr of sediment reduction;
• 645,000 tons/yr of nitrogen and phosphorus and proportional amounts of sediment
removed or prevented from entering the Highlands stream network;
• 50% increase in sport fishing stream length and tons of fish harvested;
• 17,500 additional recreational fishing days;
• 3,885,000 tons/yr of carbon sequestered; and
• 3000 additional jobs created.
In addition HAP will provide a forum within which public health and ecological issues resulting
from poor to non-existent sewage treatment, atmospheric and land based acid pollution, and
exposure to toxic pollutants can be better identified and addressed.
Session Three - May 15, 2003
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Assessing the Effectiveness of Restoration Technologies
Elise A. Striz and Joseph R. Williams
U.S. EPA ORD NRMRL Ground Water and Ecosystem Restoration Division, Ada, OK
Numerous stream and riparian restoration projects are being undertaken across the nation
at a variety of scales and for disparate reasons. Unfortunately, there are very few studies
associated with these restoration efforts which provide a consistent and practical methodology to
evaluate the effectiveness of the restoration definitively in terms of hydrological, biological, or
water quality endpoints. In addition, there has been almost no effort to assess the non-monetary
and economic benefits of such restorations, largely as a consequence of the lack of well-defined
metrics of restoration success. Clearly, if public policy is to address the need to pursue stream
and riparian restoration on a wide scale, it is critical to provide metrics to evaluate its
effectiveness. In addition, it is essential that these metrics be amenable to valuation, which can
be utilized to provide the basis for cost/benefit analysis necessary to prioritize restoration efforts.
The eco-restoration program in NRMRL has recently begun a research effort to evaluate the
effectiveness of stream restoration at two locations, Mine Bank Run in Baltimore County,
Maryland and Big Creek in the Great Basin of Nevada. These projects are intensive field studies
to measure a complete suite of hydrological, biological and water quality metrics before and after
stream restoration to assess the success of restoration techniques. In addition, NRMRL is
beginning an effort to provide economic valuation of restoration cost/benefit by partnering with
the Canaan Valley Institute (CVI), a non-profit organization that fosters local decision-making in
support of sustainable resource use and management in the Mid-Atlantic Highlands. Given these
efforts, it is proposed to undertake further research to identify the critical hydrological,
biological, and water quality metrics which can also be used to facilitate the non-monetary and
economic valuation of restoration cost/benefit. Because stream restoration occurs at so many
different scales and settings using so many different techniques, it will be necessary to expand
the number of restoration sites which will be evaluated beyond the currents NRMRL projects. In
the Mid-Atlantic Highland, there are currently six restoration projects underway or to be
undertaken in the future. This research effort would partner with CVI, to gain access to these
sites to evaluate restoration success. Throughout this effort, the selection of these indices and
methods will be made keeping in mind the need to facilitate the valuation of indices to enable the
cost/benefit analysis of restoration. An outcome of this research will be to identify metrics which
are accessible and consistent and provide the greatest evidence of restoration success and a basis
for economic valuation. Metrics and indices which are highly variable and do not offer a
consistent measure of restoration success will be relegated to a lower import.
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Poster Session
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ReVA MAIA Conference
Linking Land Use to Larval Walleye Survival
Richard M. Anderson1. Benjamin F. Hobbs2, Joseph F. Koonce3
1 National Research Council Research Associate, 631 Washington Blvd.,
Apt E, Baltimore, MD 21230
2 Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
3 Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University,
Cleveland, OH 44106
An exploratory modeling approach is used to link land use to habitat to fish productivity.
The application is to Ohio tributaries of Lake Erie, but the methodology is generally applicable
to watersheds in which the relationships between flow characteristics and habitat quality are
important. First, we carry out a regionalization analysis in which we develop regressions that
link landscape features to the parameters of the hydrologic model IHACRES in order to predict
stream flow. Second, these regressions are used to predict stream flow change in response to
watershed scale reductions in forest cover. Finally, changes in stream flow are linked to survival
of larval walleye, building on previous research that showed that higher flows reduce survival.
Results quantify the reductions in forest cover, consequent increases in watershed runoff, and
consequent reduction in walleye larval survival. This landscape-habitat-fish productivity linkage
is significant in that it goes beyond physical effects of watershed change to link to aquatic habitat
and biota.
POSTER SESSION
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ReVA MAIA Conference
Montgomery County, Maryland Uses Biological Monitoring to Better
Understand and Manage Watersheds
Brenda Ortigoza Bateman
Ph.D. Candidate, University of Maryland Baltimore County,
7606 Nutwood Ct., Rockville, MD 20855
Montgomery County faces a growing problem that confronts local governments across
the country: the cumulative impacts that population growth and resulting land-use changes are
having on local streams and their accompanying ecosystems. During the 1990s, county officials
found they needed an affordable tool to serve as a report card for stream health. State and Federal
agencies and local community groups already had begun using biological monitoring
(biomonitoring) techniques—drawing upon knowledge of the abundance and diversity of plant
and animal life in local streams—to monitor stream health. As living things integrate and reflect
the effects of physical, chemical and biological stressors, they can be a major asset for evaluating
ecological condition.
Montgomery County began its biomonitoring program in 1994, and by 1997 had
monitored all 23 watersheds within its boundaries. The program screened the watersheds, first
identifying the areas of healthy waters and impaired waters, and then identifying two primary
sources of impairment—altered flow and sediment. In 1998, Montgomery County published the
first Countywide Stream Protection Strategy (CSPS). This document provides stream condition
information on more than 200 sub-watersheds within 23 watersheds containing 1,500 miles of
streams. The County uses the CSPS to prioritize its watershed restoration efforts to those areas
most in need of immediate remediation. Six primary programs now support or require the use of
information from Montgomery County's biomonitoring program. And, the lessons learned from
Montgomery County can help other county and local governments develop similar programs of
their own.
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Innovative Environmental Education Contributes to Improved Management
Practices in the Mid-Atlantic
M. Patricia Bradley1 and Eric S. Walbeck2
1 U.S. EPA, Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment, Environmental Science Center, 701
Mapes Road, Ft. Meade, MD 20755-5350
2TPMC, c/o U.S. EPA, Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment, Environmental Science
Center, 701 Mapes Road, Ft. Meade, MD 20755-5350
MAIA is developing and testing methods to translate technical material for managers.
EPA and others fund many environmental research projects. Some of the research results are
being used, but the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) has found a lag between
completion of research and actual use of the results. A process is being developed to evaluate
research results and tech-transfer those results to decision-makers.
Unique approaches to solve environmental problems have also been implemented by
organizations throughout the mid-Atlantic region. Frequently, these new methods have not been
tech-transferred to others. A graduate seminar has been developed where students prepare
reports on environmental "best practices." Each student selects a project from those provided by
MAIA relevant to his or her field of study. The student conducts relevant research and interacts
with points-of-contact to develop the case study. Case studies that meet appropriate professional
standards are produced as full color MAIA publications with graphics. This seminar is currently
given at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and will soon be taught at universities
throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. It will provide students an opportunity to experience the
application of science to management issues.
MAIA is working with the Science To Achieve Results (STAR) program and others to
produce a series of publications based on environmental research and best environmental
practices. The success of this project will enhance the use of good science for environmental
decision-making and shorten the time it takes to transfer scientific results to environmental
managers.
POSTER SESSION
53
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Key Messages from an Emergy Analysis of West Virginia
Daniel E. Campbell1, Maria E.A. Meisch2, Sherry Brandt-Williams1, Thomas DeMoss3,
John R. Pomponio3, and Patricia Bradley1
1 U.S. EPA, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Atlantic
Ecology Division, Narragansett, RI
2 Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences, University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill, NC
3 Canaan Valley Institute, Thomas, WV
Emergy provides a general accounting mechanism that allows us to view the economy of
humanity and the economy of nature on the same income and balance sheets. In this manner we
can verify the financial picture given by economic analysis by checking it against a similar
representation of the flows and storages of real wealth as measured by emergy. In this study we
constructed an income statement showing the annual flows of emergy and dollars into and out of
the state of West Virginia in 1997. In addition, we determined the storage of social and natural
capital in the state. We constructed indices by combining the emergy and economic information
to gain insight into the economic, social, and environmental strengths and vulnerabilities of the
state. Emergy indices show West Virginia to be a state that is rich in renewable (2.8 times the US
avg.) and nonrenewable (17 times the US avg.) resources. Emergy from outside has been
attracted to the state and the investment ratio of purchased to renewable emergy is high (5) for a
state that is over 70% forested. We use these and other indices to show that West Virginia is a
state where the environment remains vulnerable over large and small areas of concentrated
human activity, where much more emergy is exported than is received in return (8:1) and where
our standard of living indicators show that people have largely failed to reap the economic
benefits of their state's wealth. Environmental accounting using emergy gives managers a
powerful new tool that they can use to audit the economic picture of a county, state, or region.
We propose that just as in business where regular financial audits insure the solvency of the firm,
policies governing environmental accounts should pass an emergy audit of their efficacy before
being implemented.
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A Regional Perspective on Ambient Monitoring Reassessment and Analysis
Alice H. Chow and Alan J. Cimorelli
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III, Philadelphia, PA 19103
EPA's goal for its National Ambient Air Monitoring Strategy is "to improve the scientific
and technical competency of existing air monitoring networks so as to be more responsive to the
public, and the scientific and health communities, in a flexible way that accommodates future
needs in an optimized resource constrained environment." By re-shaping the monitoring
program, EPA hopes to incorporate new scientific findings and technological advancements in
order to meet the needs of the 21st century. Region III conducted a technical analysis which
integrated air monitoring networks and air quality modeling systems to estimate conditions in
areas where there were no measurements; and, we developed an analytical framework which
considered scientific data along with cost information, personnel demands, and other stakeholder
defined criteria. As a result, we found that many currently existing monitors could be removed
from the network, while maintaining a good air quality estimate. This paper will provide two
examples, one for the ozone network and one for the PM2.5 network. But perhaps more
importantly, by creating the analytical framework, MIRA, there is now an opportunity for the
inclusion of other environmental criteria which traditionally have not often been made part of the
decision making process
POSTER SESSION
55
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Watersheds and Wetlands: Large-Scale Disturbances and Small Scale
Responses
Charles Andrew Cole, Ph.D.1, Robert P. Brooks, Ph.D.2, and Denice H. Wardrop, Ph.D.2
1 The Center for Watershed Stewardship The Pennsylvania State University,
227 East Calder Way, State College, PA 16801
2 The Penn State Cooperative Wetlands Center, 301 Forest Resources Laboratory
University Park, PA 16802
Currently, information necessary to understand watershed-scale impacts from permit
decisions made at a wetland-scale is lacking. We do not know how individually small wetland
impacts cascade to cumulative watershed impacts. Moreover, as wetlands are permitted for
damage or destruction, created replacements are becoming common. Very little quantitative
information is available on the success of these efforts, including data on possible successional
trajectories. Our general objectives were to: 1) assess characteristics of sets of reference and
created wetlands (within four watersheds in central Pennsylvania) by watershed, disturbance,
and hydrogeomorphic (HGM) category, 2) measure characteristics of created wetlands of
different ages in order to delineate wetland successional trajectories, 3) evaluate watershed
disturbance regime and HGM class within those reference and created wetlands to show the
range of conditions possible for natural sites and how close created sites approach that goal and
1T7 210
4) assess natural succession in reference wetlands using seed bank analyses and Cs and Pb
soil dating, and within created sites by substituting space for time. Some major findings are
given below.
We developed a means of predicting wetland occurrence using geologic indicators that
improves upon simple reliance of NWI maps. Geologic and topographic setting had a dramatic
effect on the occurrence of wetlands. Fault zones account for the greatest area of wetlands,
followed by geologic contacts and formations within the floodplain. We have developed a long-
term hydrologic data set that allows for the general prediction of water levels without a long-
term investment in time and equipment. Disturbance is a factor in hydrologic behavior and
serves as a surrogate for watershed. We have also shown that hydrology of created wetlands does
not equal that of their natural counterparts. We have also developed decision rules for hydrologic
sampling intervals. We measured sedimentation rates and deposition characteristics across HGM
subclasses. The highest organic accretion rates were for riparian depressions, followed by
impoundments, slopes, headwater floodplains, and mainstem floodplains. The potential effects of
landscape disturbance on these sedimentation rates was also investigated in order to develop a
conceptual model to predict sedimentation rates for a given wetland in a variety of landscape
settings. In general, tolerant species increased their dominance over increasing sedimentation
gradients.
We examined created wetlands to determine their relationship to characteristics displayed
by natural wetlands. We could find no relationship between biomass and the age of a created
wetland. We could not find any relationship between biomass production, age of the wetland,
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and soil organic matter. The development of soil organic matter is critical for the restoration of
function in created wetlands. Sites that should have been accumulating soil organic matter over
time were not. Our findings serve to indicate that the created wetlands that we find in the
landscape do not resemble the natural sites that had been destroyed.
We developed a Performance Criteria Matrix (PCM) that allows us to predict a wide
range of ecological characteristics by HGM subclass that can then be used in monitoring and
design of wetlands. A query can be made relative to landscape position, disturbance, and desired
wetland type, and the typical range of physical and biological characteristics can be generated.
We developed a means of sampling wetland soils for the collection of Cs137 to be used in
soil dating. Plant communities in wetlands with highly developed landscapes had more invasive
species, lower average Wetland Indicator Status, and few rare plants. Detrended
Correspondence Analysis (DCA) identified percent development as an important predictor of
species composition. We also found that wetland plant communities in highly developed
landscapes had accelerated rates of change in species composition compared to wetland plant
communities in less developed landscapes. There was significant germination from seeds dated
as 43 or more years old, which has implications for the restorative capacity of seed banks.
POSTER SESSION
57
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Calvert County Maryland's Success at Controlling Sprawl
Robert Costanza
University of Vermont, School of Natural Resources, Burlington, VT
We have designed a modeling approach that can estimate the impact of economic
development on environmental conditions in a watershed. The model takes into account
information about economic indicators (such as land use patterns, amount of nutrient pollution
from various sources, etc.), physical characteristics of the area (elevation, soil types, etc.), and
biological characteristics (habitat types, vegetation types, etc.). It then produces a spatial
simulation of ecological dynamics and generates output for a variety of environmental indicators
such as water quality in streams and estuaries. We can then modify input data to reflect existing
options of economic change and compare the different alternatives in terms of their
environmental effects. We have applied our modeling approach to the Hunting Creek, as a
representative of the Calvert County as a whole. Our goal was to compare the different buildout
alternatives in terms of water quality in Hunting Creek. We have analyzed a number of growth
scenarios with the model: (1) Buildout at 54,600 dwelling units (DU), assumed under current
zoning plans; (2) Buildout at 44,200 DU that is 25% density reduction plan: (3) Buildout at
36,000 DU that is 50% density reduction plan. The model translated these scenarios into the
amounts of nitrogen received by the Hunting Creek estuary. This was used to inform County
Commissioners and help them make decisions about the zoning ordinance. The model was
further used in an optimization framework that generates landuse patterns for the watershed that
are optimal from the viewpoint of ecological and economic functions.
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A Small Watershed Characterization, Classification and Assessment for West
Virginia Utilizing EMAP Design and Tools
Naomi E. Detenbeck1, Dan Cincotta2, Florence Fulk3, and Frank McCormick3
1 U.S. EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Mid-
Continent Ecology Division, 6201 Congdon Blvd, Duluth, MN 55804
2 WV DNR Elkins Operation Center, Route 219, 250 South Ward Rd, Elkins, WV 26241
3U.S. EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory, 26 West Martin Luther King Drive,
Cincinnati, OH 45268.
A multi-objective sampling design has been implemented through R-EMAP support of a
cooperative agreement with the state of WV. Goals of the project include: 1) development and
testing of a temperature-adjusted fish IBI for the Central Appalachian Plateau and Western
Alleghany Plateau ecoregions of West Virginia, 2) development of a watershed classification
system and application to a probabilistic watershed-based sampling framework, and 3) prediction
of stream thermal regime class from watershed characteristics. Watershed classification is based
on empirically-derived hydrologic thresholds related to land-cover (watershed storage) and land-
use (agriculture, mining, and urban/residential development). Watershed storage has been
related to hydrologic regime and sensitivity to NPS. Incorporation of watershed classification
into a probabilistic sampling design will allow WV not only to summarize ecological condition
at the ecoregion scale based on the distribution of fish IBIs and habitat quality, but also to predict
probability of impairment for other sites based on watershed characteristics. This is an abstract
or a proposed presentation and does not necessarily reflect EPA policy.
POSTER SESSION
59
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ReVA MAI A Conference
June Bugs Invade Links: Pesticide Use Reduction with Geographic
Information Systems
Jill A. Engel-Cox1, Patricia Bradley2, Joseph T. Harkins3
1 University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Center for Urban Environmental Research and
Education Battelle Memorial Institute, 2101 Wilson Blvd Suite 800, Arlington, VA 22201-3008
2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment Environmental
Science Center, 701 Mapes Road, Ft. Meade, MD 20755-5350
3 Entomological Sciences Program, U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventative
Medicine, 5158 Blackhawk Road, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Aberdeen, MD 21010-5403
At the Ruggles Golf Course, located on the U.S. Army Aberdeen Proving Ground,
Maryland, the beetle larvae had become more than just a minor pest problem. The larvae of the
green June beetle had infested the fairways, greens, and the driving range, leaving mounds of dirt
from their holes and severely damaging the turf. The golf course staff had repeatedly applied
insecticides to the entire course with little long-term success, as well as hindering progress
toward U.S. Army pesticide use reduction goals. As an innovative solution, the Entomological
Sciences Program of the U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventative Medicine
used geographical information system (GIS) technology to precisely target the use of pesticides
against green June beetle larvae. By geo-referencing areas of the course that were infested with
the beetle larvae, they were able to treat only those specific areas with targeted pesticides,
instead of conducting a broad application of pesticides over the entire course. This technique
eliminated the green June bug problem and reduced pesticide use by 80% per year at the golf
course. This technology is applicable to golf courses, parks, sports fields, firing ranges, and
other places with turfgrass. It can reduce pesticide use by 80%, reduce applications costs by
50%, and reduce worker and user exposure to chemicals.
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A Bayes Likelihood Information Theoretic Approach for the Exogenous
Aggregation of Regional Ground Water Quality Data
Barton R. Faulkner1, Earl A. Greene2, Elizabeth R. Smith3
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development,
National Risk Management Research Laboratory, P.O. Box 1198, Ada, OK 74820
2 U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division, Baltimore, MD 21237
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development,
National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
This work addresses a potentially serious problem in synthesis of spatially-explicit data
on ground water quality from wells, known to geographers as the modifiable areal unit problem
(MAUP). Investigators are faced with choosing a level of aggregation appropriate to answer
questions at that scale, and resulting inferences are dependent on the choice made. This is
important in the context of ReVA because much of the existing data on land use, landscape
pattern, and other attributes already consist of aggregated averages, and to integrate ground water
data in assessment implies the need for an optimal choice for the level of aggregation. This paper
presents a proposed solution to the MAUP for regional ground water data interpretation. This
approach uses Bayesian inference, and a Bayes likelihood with the Akaike information criterion
for optimal mapping. Examples are presented by evaluating risk of loading of nitrate to shallow
ground water for the U.S. Geological Survey's NAWQA data from rural wells in Maryland, to
produce the most informative maps.
A unique aspect of this approach is that it is aimed at aggregation by exogenous areal
units. Exogenous areal units include political boundaries that are often of interest to planners
who must base their decision-making according to these boundaries. In general, areal units that
are exogenous to the data need not correlate spatially with the geological and hydrological
factors that produced the spatial variation in the constituent of ground water being assessed.
Examples of exogenous boundaries include counties, townships, census tracts, and State
boundaries.
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ReVA MAI A Conference
A Regional Approach to Projecting Land-Use Change and Resulting
Ecological Vulnerability
Laura E. Jackson1, Sandra L. Bird2, Ronald W. Matheny3, Robert V. O'Neill4, Denis White5,
Kristin C. Boesch6, and Jodi L. Koviach7
1 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental
Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
2 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research
Laboratory, Athens, GA
3 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research
Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
4 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN
5 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental
Effects Research Laboratory, Corvallis, OR
6 University of North Carolina, Department of City and Regional Planning, Chapel Hill, NC
This study explores ecological vulnerability to land-use change in the U.S. mid-Atlantic
region by spatially extrapolating land and economic development, and overlaying these
projections with maps of sensitive ecological resources. As individual extrapolations have a high
degree of uncertainty, five methods with different theoretical bases are employed. Confidence in
projections is increased for counties targeted by two or more projection methods. A county is
considered at risk if it currently supports three or more sensitive resources, and is projected to
experience significant growth by the year 2010 by two or more methods. Analysis designated 19
counties and two cities as at risk, highlighting within a large region the priority areas where state
and regional efforts would contribute the most to integrating environmental considerations into
the process of land development. The study also found that potentially severe ecological effects
of future land-use change are not limited to the outskirts of major urban areas. Recreational
demands on smaller communities with mountain and coastal resources are also significant, as are
initiatives to promote economic development in rural areas of high ecological quality. This
approach provides a comprehensive overview of potential regional development, leading to an
objective prioritization of high-risk areas. The intent is to inform local planning and decision-
making so that regional and cumulative ecological degradation are minimized.
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Mapping and Modeling Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed:
Utilizing Impervious Surface Maps to Assess Environmental Vulnerabilities
Claire A. Jantz, Scott J. Goetz, Andrew J. Smith, and Brian R. Melchior
University of Maryland, Department of Geography, College Park, MD 20742
Declining water quality in the Chesapeake Bay estuary is due in part to disruptions in the
hydrological system caused by urban and suburban development throughout its 167,000 km2
watershed. Obtaining improved estimates of impervious surface area at local and regional scales
has been identified as an essential component of planning decisions to mitigate growth patterns
that adversely affect water quality. A modeling system that could provide regional assessments
of future development and explore the potential impacts of different regional management
scenarios would be useful for a wide range of applications relevant to the future health of the
Bay and its tributaries.
We will present high resolution (30m cell size) maps of proportional impervious cover
for the entire Chesapeake Bay Watershed that were derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery using a
decision tree algorithm and extensive training information. Similar mapping techniques were
applied to historic Landsat TM imagery to produce a 1986-2000 time series of impervious
surface cover change for the Washington, DC-Baltimore, MD area. We present two examples of
applications of these data: i) preliminary measures to characterize "sprawl" development
patterns, ii) land use change modeling. The land use change model (SLEUTH) was calibrated
using the time series maps, and predictions were made out to 2030 assuming three different
policy scenarios (current trends, managed growth, and "sustainable"). Using this modeling tool,
watersheds at risk for being developed can be identified and policies that could mitigate resource
loss can be evaluated.
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63
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Selecting Vital Sign Indicators for the National Capital Network
Marcus Koenen, Ellen Gray, Sybil Hood, Mikaila Milton, John Sinclair, and Christina Wright
National Park Service, Center for Urban Ecology, 4598 MacArthur Blvd. NW.
Washington D.C. 20007
The National Park Service is implementing an Inventory and Monitoring program at over
270 parks that contain significant natural resources and are organized into 32 networks. The
National Capital Network (NCN) is among the first to receive funding for program
implementation. The network is composed of 11 parks that were primarily established for their
recreational or historical value in and around the Washington DC area. Encompassing 80,000
acres, these parks now represent some of the last opportunities to protect key components of the
region's natural heritage. The network staff has been undergoing an intensive seven-step
planning process involving over 100 participants that represent more than 30 agencies including
several divisions within the Park Service, universities, state and federal agencies, non-
governmental agencies, and individuals. The participants have been working through a series of
thematic breakout sessions and have helped identify the region's key natural resources which
include air, geology, invertebrates, landscapes, rare/threatened/endangered species and
communities, vegetation communities, water, and wildlife. The collaborative approach has
resulted in conceptual models for each of the key resources which are not being used to identify
threats, their ecological effects, and appropriate ecological indicators that will also provide parks
with essential management information. This presentation will discuss the planning process and
outline the ecological indicators proposed to monitor key natural resources in the NCN.
64
POSTER SESSION
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ReVA MAIA Conference
An Overview of Data Integration Methods for Regional Assessment
Nicholas W. Locantore1, Robert V. O'Neill2, and Liem T. Tran3
'Waratah Corporation, 2505 Meridian Pkwy, Suite 175, Durham NC 27713
2Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
3Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, Pennsylvania State University,
University Park, PA
One of the goals of the EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) project is to
take diverse environmental data and develop objective criteria to evaluate environmental risk
assessments at the regional scale. The data include (but are not limited to) variables for forests,
air quality, water quality, biodiversity, human health, socioeconomic, and measures of pollution.
Although assessments are usually performed for these groups individually, ReVA has undertaken
the task of trying to use all the available information together to allow for a broader assessment.
This talk will focus on briefly defining each of the integration methods that are currently being
evaluated for assessment, and discussing how these methods are being used as objective criteria
for risk assessment. These methods, once the evaluation is completed, will become available on
ReVA's web-based application.
POSTER SESSION
65
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Can Landscape Characteristics of Watersheds Help Find Impaired Bottom
Communities in Estuaries?
Stephen S. Hale1, John F. Paul2, Douglas G. McGovern3, James F. Heltshe4,
and Matthew C. Nicholson1
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI02882
2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
3 Computer Sciences Corporation, Narragansett, RI
4 University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI
Human alteration of watersheds and their landscapes often leads to undesirable effects in
estuaries, such as excess nutrients, organic matter, and sediments, as well as increased levels of
contaminants and pathogens. We hypothesized that alterations in watersheds associated with
small estuaries (<260 km2) would have strong enough effects to make landscape metrics useful
for finding impaired bottom communities. We worked with data for the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coastal plain from Delaware Bay to Chesapeake Bay, where we had 58 pairs of small estuaries
and watersheds that spanned wide ranges of land use and land cover. We considered 29
landscape metrics as potential explanatory variables. We used logistic regression models to
calculate the probabilities of degraded benthic environmental quality (BEQ), defined by
chemical parameters, and impaired estuarine bottom communities, defined by a benthic index
and by the total number of bottom-dwelling species. A model using landscape metrics correctly
classified BEQ in 90% of the cases; low benthic index and low total number of bottom species
were each associated with degraded BEQ (p < 0.01 in a t-test). The logistic regression models for
benthic index and total number of species also had excellent discriminatory power (areas under
ROC curve of 0.81 and 0.85). Watersheds with higher percentages of urban and agricultural land
uses were associated with low benthic index and low total number of species, while those with
higher percentages of wetlands were associated with high numbers.
66
POSTER SESSION
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Strategic Planning and Indicators for Targeting Environmental Outcomes
Richard Paiste
U.S. EPA Region 3, 1650 Arch Street, Philadelphia, PA 19103
In an effort to apply the science of developing environmental indicators to decision-
making, the EPA Region 3 Office of Environmental Data is developing the Report on the
Environment: Mid-Atlantic Region to assist Regional/State strategic planning and
implementation. This effort, which makes extensive use of ReVA methods and MALA data
synthesizes multiple outcome indicators and links input indicators to outcomes across programs
to enhance program management and tracking of short, intermediate and long term goals. This
poster illustrates the key elements of the process and their connections to strategic planning.
POSTER SESSION
67
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ReVA MAIA Conference
Impacts of Anthropogenic Nitrogen Deposition on Forest Carbon
Sequestration and N Dynamics in the Mid-Atlantic Region
Yude Pan, John Horn, Richard Birdsey, Kevin McCullough
USDA Forest Service, NERS, 11 Campus Blvd, Newtown Square, PA 19073
Recent global carbon budget assessments have suggested that carbon sequestration in
mid-latitude temperate forests has increased due to increasing anthropogenic N deposition. A
forest ecosystem model, PnET-CN, was modified to assess the effects of increased N deposition
on forest C accumulation and N leaching losses for the Mid-Atlantic region. A wet N deposition
scenario was developed based on high-resolution, spatially modeled NADP/ NTN monitoring
data, averaged over ten years (1991-2000). The dry deposition rate was estimated using a mean
ratio of wet/dry N03 and NH4 deposition based on measurements in the study area.
Our results suggests that the chronic N increases over the past 70 years, has increased
forest productivity by 20%, forest biomass by 9% and soil organic matter by 19% in the Mid-
Atlantic region. Increased N deposition is the primary cause for enhanced C sequestration, and
elevated C02 was found to be a secondary factor for enhancing growth (12%) although the
historic increase in atmospheric C02 resulted in the largest C gains (18%) in forest biomass. The
combination of rising N deposition and elevated C02 created large C gains in forest biomass
(35%) and soil organic matter (25%).
With the historic increase in N deposition, the current N leaching loss from forested lands
in this region was estimated at 1.4 Kg/ha/yr, with a N retention rate of 87%. With a doubling of
the current N deposition scenario, the forest N retention rate would drop to 79%. The total N
export to stream water would nonlinearly increase more than 300%.
68
POSTER SESSION
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ReVA MAIA Conference
Empirical, Geographically-Based Water Quality Criteria Development Using
Conditional Probabilities: A Proposed Approach with Application to
Sediments in Mid-Atlantic Streams
John F. Paul and Michael E. McDonald
National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory,
U.S. EPA, Mail Drop B205-01, Raleigh, NC 27711
How can you use field data to develop geographically-based aquatic criteria? Typical
methods to develop criteria using data collected at sites across a geographic area include (1)
characterizing reference sites and using best professional judgment; (2) using the 75th percentile
of reference sites; (3) using the 5th to 25th percentile of all sites; and (4) relying on previously
developed predictive relationships. One common issue with these typical methods is how to
extrapolate from sites with data to the entire geographic area. Another issue is a possible bias in
results due to the way sites were selected. A conditional probability approach using survey data
overcomes these issues. This approach is consistent with the expression of numeric water quality
criteria as likelihood of impairment when a value of a pollution metric is exceeded. Data on Mid-
Atlantic wadable streams were collected by U.S. EPA's Environmental Monitoring and
Assessment Program (EMAP) in 1993-94 and are used to illustrate the approach. For illustration,
a stream sedimentation criteria was determined from a channel sedimentation index (CSI). The
CSI expresses the deviation in the actual amount of substrate fines from that which would be
normally expected to occur. EMAP streams benthic invertebrate survey data were used to
determine the likelihood of impaired benthic conditions as a function of exceeding a CSI value.
The use of survey data permits an unbiased extrapolation of results to the statistical population
from which the probability sample was drawn. Final development of criteria levels for the
pollution metric based upon biological impairment must be a management decision. However, a
scientifically defensible approach to establishing a benchmark criteria by determining
significant differences for biological community condition from geographic background levels
are put forward.
POSTER SESSION
69
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Contaminant Exposure and Effects Terrestrial Vertebrates Database:
Analysis for the Northeast
Barnett A. Rattner. Jonathan B. Cohen, Nancy H. Golden and Karen M. Eisenreich.
USGS-Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, MD 20708
Over the past five years, a "Contaminant Exposure and Effects - Terrestrial Vertebrates"
database (CEE-TV), focused on coastal and estuarine habitat in the United States has been
compiled through computerized search of published literature, review of existing databases, and
solicitation of unpublished reports from conservation agencies, private groups, and universities.
The CEE-TV database is web accessible (www.pwrc.usgs.gov/ceetv) in an easy to use
searchable format. The database has a number of potential applications, including focusing
biomonitoring efforts to generate critically needed ecotoxicological data in the numerous "gaps"
along the coast, reducing uncertainty about contaminant risk, identifying areas for mitigation,
restoration or special management, and ranking the ecological conditions of estuaries. We
recently examined terrestrial vertebrate data for Atlantic estuarine and coastal sites to identify
critical data gaps. Using the U.S. EPA Index of Watershed Indicators, we have identified 15
watersheds that are classified as having water quality problems or high vulnerability to pollution
that lacked terrestrial vertebrate ecotoxicological monitoring or research in the past decade. In
addition, about 42 National Wildlife Refuge and 17 National Park units (>1 km ) without current
data fall within watersheds of concern. Without data from these sites, it will be difficult to
perform unbiased assessments of regional trends in contaminant exposure and effects in
terrestrial vertebrates.
70
POSTER SESSION
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Waquoit Bay Watershed Ecological Risk Assessment: Using Science to
Support Management
David D. Dow1, Jeniffer L. Bowen2, Victor B. Serveiss3.1. Valiela2
1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service,
Woods Hole, MA 02543
2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (8623-D), 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW,
Washington, DC 20460
3 Boston University Marine Program, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole,
MA 02543
Watershed ecological risk assessment principles were was used to organize, analyze and
present scientific information to help protect the ecological resources of the Waquoit Bay
watershed, in Massachusetts. Through a series of meetings with the general public and local and
state managers environmental management goals and objectives were established for the
watershed. An interdisciplinary and interagency workgroup identified manmade stressors,
exposure pathways, dose/response relationships, and assessment endpoints. A conceptual model
was used to better clarify the pathways by which stressors such as nutrient enrichment, physical
alteration of habitat, altered freshwater flow, and toxic chemicals impacted several assessment
endpoints. A comparative risk analysis and an evaluation of the impacts of stressors identified
nutrient enrichment as the major stressor within the watershed. This justified focusing on the
assessment endpoints most impacted by nitrogen loading, eelgrass cover and scallop abundance.
A nitrogen loading and an estuarine loading model were developed to link land use changes to
changes in water quality. By comparing increases in nitrogen loads to losses in the area of
eelgrass cover over the last 60 years, it appears that eelgrass disappears once nitrogen loads reach
20 kg ha-1 yr-1. Both the increase in nitrogen load and the decrease in eelgrass can be correlated
to decreases in the annual harvest of scallops. Developed models provide the opportunity for
managers to assess a variety of options to reduce nitrogen loads to their estuaries and to achieve
the loads that could allow the return of eelgrass to the target area.
POSTER SESSION
71
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ReVA MAI A Conference
Watershed Planning and Restoration in an Urbanized County
Steven L. Stewart. Nancy S. Pentz, Eldon R. Gemmill
Baltimore County Department of Environmental Protection and Resource Management
Baltimore County, Maryland has adopted a watershed planning approach for assessing
stream system conditions and developing restoration strategies as part of an overall integrated
watershed management system. The integrated watershed management system includes,
monitoring, watershed planning, restoration activities, land planning, education, operational
programs, land preservation, and development regulation. This approach is in response to a
number of federal mandates, including, National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System -
Municipal Stormwater Discharge Permit, Total Maximum Daily Loads, Chesapeake Bay
Program - Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Strategies, and Coastal Zone Management.
Since 1994, Nine watershed management plans have been completed with a tenth plan
currently underway. The watershed planning component includes watershed characterization,
pollutant load modeling (both current and future), stream stability analysis, restoration project
identification and prioritization, and cost analysis. Each plan provides the restoration framework
for targeting of Capital Restoration Projects in a cost effective manner. Restoration progress is
tracked through the use of GIS and quantitative measures of post project integrity, pollutant
removal and biological improvement. The analysis of this information results in improvement of
future project effectiveness.
Future watershed planning will focus on smaller geographic areas selected on the basis of
the data derived from the watershed management plans. Stakeholders will be convened to set
specific goals and measurable objectives and generate Action Plans for the smaller planning
areas. Detailed analyses will be conducted to identify the restoration and remediation measures
necessary to meet the Action Plan goals and objectives.
72
POSTER SESSION
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ReVA MAI A Conference
A Fuzzy Decision Analysis Method for Regional Environmental Assessment of
the Mid-Atlantic Region
Liem T. Tran1. C. Gregory Knight1, Robert V. O'Neill2, Elizabeth R. Smith3
1 Center for Integrated Regional Assessment and Department of Geography,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
2 TN & Associates, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development,
National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
A fuzzy decision analysis method for regional environmental assessment is developed.
This is a combination of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) and a fuzzy distance measure with
the aid of multivariate statistical analysis. The method provides a flexible avenue to combine the
two conventional and recently-developed approaches: stressor-receptor analysis and watershed-
based assessment. The aim of ANP in this method is to capture the dependence and feedback
within and between clusters of environmental indicators. The use of multivariate statistical
analysis eases the burden of extensive pair-wise comparisons in developing the ANP
supermatrix's matrices of column priorities. Uncertainty associated with each environmental
indicator is handled by way of the fuzzy distance measure.
The method is capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and
suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using nearly one hundred indicators on
land-cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, topography, and human pressure of the
Mid-Atlantic region, we are able to point out areas which were in relatively poor condition or
vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an integrated way to combine the
strengths of fuzzy set theory and the ANP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested
method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.
POSTER SESSION
73
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ReVA MAI A Conference
An Integrated Framework for Uncertainty Analysis in Regional
Environmental Assessment
Liem T. Tran1, C. Gregory Knigh'1, Robert V. O'Neill2, Elizabeth R. Smith3
1 Center for Integrated Regional Assessment and Department of Geography,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
2 TN & Associates, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development,
National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
The main goal of a Regional Environmental Assessment (REA) is to facilitate decision-
making process on complex human-environment interaction issues that are often associated with
uncertainty from various sources. Hence to assure the success of REA, uncertainty needs to be
dealt with in an explicit, suitable, and understandable manner not only to scientists but also to
decision-makers. At the Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, the Pennsylvania State
University, the cooperative research project "Comprehensive Framework for Uncertainty
Analysis in Ecological Vulnerability Assessment" aims to develop a systematic framework for
uncertainty analysis for REA. Our objectives are to: (1) develop a taxonomy of uncertainty
appropriate for EVA; (2) apply the uncertainty taxonomy to ecological indicators; and (3) apply
appropriate techniques to handle uncertainty in REA.
The poster presents our initial taxonomy of uncertainty in REA accompanied by suitable
uncertainty-handling theories. Several examples are presented to illustrate how sources and
types of uncertainty and their connections among various components of an REA are identified
and displayed properly. Although still being in the beginning stage, the research has proven that
a consistent framework and techniques for quantifying/integrating the many components of
uncertainty are feasible. The generic nature of this outcome will be useful in subsequent regional
studies, to other scientists, and to decision-makers.
74
POSTER SESSION
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ReVA MAI A Conference
CrEAM: Getting the Best Ecosystems to Float to the Top
Mary L. White. Charles Maurice, Amy Mysz, Robert Beltran, Michael Gentleman
U.S. EPA, Region 5, Chicago, IL
Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology and best professional
judgment, the Region 5 Critical Ecosystems Team of the U.S. EPA has created a spatially
explicit model to predict the location of critical ecosystems in the region. Twenty existing data
sets were combined to generate three composite data layers that characterize the potential for
ecosystem diversity, sustainability, and rarity at a scale of 300 meter pixels. These layers can be
used individually or in combination as a tool to identify potentially critical ecosystems.
POSTER SESSION
75
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