ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY
CASE STIDY OF GRAND COUNTY AREA,
COLORADO
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EPA
October 1976
1 ENVIRONMENTAL CARRYING CAPACITY
CASE STUDY OF GRAND COUNTY AREA, COLORADO
By
Perry Brown
AT Dyer
Greg Alward
Craig Axtell
Joyce Berry
Bruce Bornstein
Larry Kolenbrander
Bruce McGurk
Jim Price
Walter Stewart
Regional Resource Planning Program
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, Colorado 80523
U S. [.pa Region 8
80C-L
999 18lh
Denver
Lion
Si
Suifc 500
80202-246
Final Report
Grant No. 68012948
Project Officer
Gene D. Taylor
Environmental Evaluation Branch, Water Division
Region VIII
Denver, Colorado 80220
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE vii
INTRODUCTION ¦ 1
PROCESS OVERVIEW 5
Planning 5
Carrying Capacity 7
Study Process 10
CASE STUDY-EASTERN GRAND COUNTY 15
Study Area 15
Deriving Alternative Futures 17
Resource Analysis 18
Slope 19
Importance 19
Data Source 19
Situation Description 19
Interpretation ..... .... 20
Vegetation 21
Importance 21
Data Sources 23
Situation Description 23
Interpretation 24
Soils 26
Importance 26
Data Sources 27
Situation Description 27
Interpretation 31
Geologic Hazards and Mineral Resources ... 34
Importance 34
Data Sources 34
Situation Description 34
Interpretation 36
Wildlife 37
Importance 37
Data Sources 38
Situation Description 39
Interpretation 40
Wildfire 45
Importance 45
Data Source 46
Situation Description 47
Interpretation 47
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Avalanche 48
Importance 48
Data Source 49
Situation Description . . 50
Interpretation 50
Visual Vulnerability 50
Importance 50
Data Source 51
Situation Description 52
Interpretation . . 53
Hydrology 55
Importance 55
Data Source 55
Situation Description 55
Interpretation 56
Air Quality 56
Importance 56
Data Source 57
Situation Description 59
Interpretation 59
Water Quality 63
Importance . . 63
Data Sources 63
Situation Description 63
Interpretation 65
Public Opinion Analysis 65
Government Official Survey 66
Method 66
Situation Description 67
First Public Opinion Questionnaire 70
Method 70
Analysis and Results 72
Interpretation and Use 79
Population Analysis 81
Inflow-Outflow Analysis 84
A Cohort-Survival Model 85
The Population Model--Overview and Summary 86
Data Sources 88
Situation Description 90
Interpretation and Use 91
Economic Analysis 92
Situation Description 93
Interpretation and Use 96
Deriving Scenarios 96
Importance 96
Process 97
Use 99
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Page
Alternative Futures 100
Data Input Requirements 100
Assumptions 102
Scenario 1: Preservation/Toursim 102
Scenario 2: Extractive and Light Industry--High
Development 102
Scenario 3: Tourism--High Development 103
Scenario 4: Preservation 103
Scenario 5: Tourism/Industry—Moderate Development . . . 104
The Futures 104
Estimating Impacts of Futures 106
Resource Weighting and Compositing . . . . 106
Generating Resource Needs Ill
Infrastructure 117
Importance 117
Process 117
Water Supply and Waste Water Treatment 119
Transportation 121
Education 123
Fire Protection 123
Police Protection 124
Hospitals 125
Recreation 126
Solid Waste Disposal 128
Interpretation ¦ 129
Allocation of Development 131
Impact Estimation 134
Vegetation 134
Soils 149
Geology 149
Wildlife 153
Visual Resource 153
Hydrology 155
Choosing a Desired Future 158
Survey Purpose and Methodology 159
Results 161
Control and Management of Land Use 165
Strategies 167
Governmental Spending 168
Condemnation 168
Police and Taxing Powers 169
Selection of a Strategy 169
Control Tools 170
Traditional Zoning 170
Functional Zoning 170
Environmental Zoning 171
Transferrable Development Rights 171
Permit Systems 172
Utility and Service Control 172
Market Purchase and Easements 173
A Possible Program 174
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Page
EVALUATION OF THE PROCESS 175
Cost 176
Workability 178
Acceptability 180
Conclusion 181
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 183
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LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
An abstraction of the planning problem
The carrying capacity based planning process from a
decision-making perspective
Impact generation process
Deriving alternative futures
Evaluating impacts of alternative futures
Selection of desired future
Study area
Spectrum of responses to pollutant exposure
Spatial location of resident groups
The population-employment relationship
Inflow-outflow analysis
Population model-summary
Employment model-summary
Position of spatial allocation in the planning process
A community structure and its component interactions .
Land allocation for Scenario I resource composite . .
Land allocation for Scenario II resource composite . .
Land allocation for Scenario III resource composite .
Land allocation for Scenario IV resource composite . .
Land allocation for Scenario V resource composite . .
Detailed soils map for the Granby quadrangle
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
1. Components of the planning situation 6
2. Soil series names and map symbols 28
3. General soil association, interpretation, eastern portion,
Grand County, Colorado 30
4. Soil limitations incorporated in the use suitability
matrix 33
5. Birds, small mammals, and large mammals observed in
Grand County, Colorado 41
6. A visual vulnerability matrix 52
7. Federal and Colorado air quality standards 58
8. Carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, and nitrogen oxide emission
factors for light-duty vehicles at low and high altitudes . . 60
9. Emission factors for wood and bark waste combustion in
boilers 61
10. Colorado water quality standards summary 64
11. Attributes of Grand County: Like/Dislike (Scale 1-9) 74
12. Grand County: Future issues 77
13. Grand County population - 1970 Census 90
14. Grand County population - 1975 estimated 91
15. Grand County employment by industry - 1970 Census 95
16. Capacity of water and sanitation districts within the
study area 120
17. Allocation of land demand giving suitability class, use,
area, and general location 135
18. Comparative runoff by development type and scenario for
the Granby Case Study Area . . 156
19. Total volume, sediment, and pollutant loading from Granby
Case Study Area 157
20. Survey response results 161
21. Ratings of five alternative futures 163
22. Rankings of alternative futures 164
23. Rankings of alternative future components 165
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PREFACE
Carrying capacity has for many years been a topic of discussion and
analysis in resource management. It has also received attention via con-
siderations of optimum population for cities and other geographical
spaces. Recently, it has become a popular, but controversial, topic in
regional planning for areas outside urban agglomerations. The study
reported in this paper reflects this recent interest.
The study focused on evaluating a carrying capacity based planning
process for its usefulness in regional planning. A case study area,
Grand County, Colorado, was used for this evaluation and received the
benefits of the project's data collection and analysis efforts. However,
the study was of a process and the data supplied to the County were out-
puts of the test and do not represent a specific job done for the County.
In fact, in this report the reader will find few data directly useful in
the County's planning activities.
The research team which conducted this study is grateful for the
cooperation and assistance it received from many individuals and govern-
mental agencies. Among the many who provided considerable assistance were:
The Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Forest Service, the Soil
Conservation Service, and the National Park Service provided environmental
data; the Colorado State Forest Service provided office space and trans-
portation vehicles; Jerry Wolf of the Colorado Division of Wildlife gave
the Team data, field study assistance, and access to living quarters.
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Stan Broome, former Grand County Planner and Bob Chamberlain, Grand County
Assistant County Planner gave us information, assistance, and the support
of the Planning Office. Numerous County officials and residents not only
provided us with needed data but also took the time to answer opinion
questionnaires. We also thank the other members of the Regional Resource
Planning Program who helped us during this project. Dr. Dennis Lynch was
especially helpful during initial stages of the project. Vicki Traxler
and Steve Long helped with the coding phase; Pat Kerschner produced graphics
and provided assistance with survey research; Kate Chandler helped develop
and administer the first questionnaire; Jim Kelly was always on hand to
take part in daily operations; Sarah Crim participated in much of the map
production; Jan Bergquist contributed to data collection efforts; Carole
Travis did the typing of this manuscript and its many drafts.
Special thanks go to Gene Taylor, EPA project monitor from Region VIII.
He had the patience, understanding, and flexibility to allow us to develop
the project as it progressed.
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INTRODUCTION
Many of the mountain communities of Colorado and neighboring states
are illustrative of new trends in urbanization and development which have,
to date, been given little attention by researchers and planners. While
there has been growing concern for the plight of the large city and its
suburbs, problems associated with rapid growth and development of small,
relatively isolated towns and rural areas have not been adequately studied.
The result is that we see (particularly in the mountain and intermountain
states of the West) some extremely rapidly growing communities which are
beginning to exhibit many of the problems of large urban areas. Deteriora-
tion of environmental quality, congested traffic, inadequate waste disposal,
spatial and locational problems resulting from lack of adequate zoning, con-
flict among citizens with different attitudes toward expansion and economic
growth, harmful alteration of environmental resources of the area, and many
other problems are the result of inadequate planning and a lack of knowledge
of the interrelationships between population increases in the community,
economic expansion, and the total living environment. Because of the fra-
gility of the environment in the mountain and intermountain states of the
West, the consequences may be particularly bad.
These are the problems of such places as Aspen, Steamboat Springs,
Winter Park, Dillon, Vail, Sun Valley, and Park City, as well as many other
communities in the Mountain West. Because of the recreational and scenic
attractiveness of these areas, they are drawing great numbers of seasonal
residents (often as second home owners); yet uncontrolled growth is likely
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to destroy the very resource which has been the basis for the economic
expansion of the area. In trying to solve these problems, what is needed
is a dual effort of research and planning which will lead to a knowledge
base plus a program for implementation which will permit orderly develop-
ment and optimum use of the natural, capital, and human resources of an
area, consistent with the public interest.
The rapidly growing mountain communities form a sub-set of a larger
community growth phenomenon; that is, they are part of the general situ-
ation associated with rapid growth of heretofore rural areas caused by
location of new manufacturing plants, relocation of existing firms, the
creation of new towns, and the outward movement of the urban fringe. All
of these phenomena have in common the rapid population growth of previously
rural areas and the concomitant consequences of this population increase.
The potential problems of rapid growth are intensified by the fact
that local planning decision makers (usually county commisioners or planning
and zoning commissions) have not been exposed to critical environmental
decisions in the past. They lack data on the existing community or regional
situation, but more importantly they lack information on impacts of change
which might result from various regulatory choices which fall within their
province. The public decision makers often perceive community or regional
change as an overwhelming force over which they have little control when,
in fact, they may have the authority but not the information on which to
plan the destiny of their community or region.
To gain understanding of the elements which drive these development
situations, some organizing framework is needed. One possible framework is
a carrying capacity based planning process. Because of the holistic nature
of carrying capacity based planning, such a process is ideally suited to the
problem of organizing for comprehensive analyses.
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The planning problem is so complex that an intensive program is neces-
sary to provide data and information as a basis for seeking answers which
not only deal with the traditionally recognized role of spatial and archi-
tectural planning, but also deal with answers to questions from the fields
of economics, political science, sociology, public health, ecology, business,
and regional planning. What is needed is an interdisciplinary approach to
solving community development problems.
This project has been built on the premise that sound planning decisions
can only be made if reliable and comprehensive data on the existing condi-
tions, on critical planning variables and constraints, and on the potential
impacts of planning alternatives can be made available to a wide range of
responsible decision makers. This requires, in turn, that information and
data inputs be in a form intelligible to non-scientifically trained community
leaders. A carrying capacity based planning process has the potential to be
useful for such a task.
The central purpose of the project was to test a carrying capacity
based planning process for its usefulness in comprehensive mountain land
planning.
Probably the greatest shortcoming of planning and zoning decisions in
most areas is that they are made in reaction to short-run crises and usually
consider only immediate and direct impacts. In rapidly growing mountain
communities that are being besieged by requests for planned unit developments,
for condominiums, or development of new ski areas, short-run crisis decision
making is far from adequate and, in fact, may be disastrous to the future
quality of the living environment.
In attempting to develop a planning framework which would help avoid
this kind of decision making, this project has examined the interaction of
those planning variables, by way of designing alternative futures, which
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are the critical ones influencing the growth and environment of rapidly
growing mountain communities. A systems approach, utilizing carrying
capacity concepts, was aimed at identifying and quantifying these
interactions.
To meet the problem of testing a carrying capacity based planning
process for mountain land planning, the research has two specific
objectives.
1. To employ a carrying capacity based planning process in an
analysis of the future of Grand County, Colorado. This in-
volved examing natural environmental capabilities, social
and economic driving forces, and the institutional and infra-
structure elements of the County. The future was forecast
through derivation of several alternative futures, and these
futures were utilized to provide a focus for the analysis.
2. To evaluate the employment of the carrying capacity based
planning process utilized in (1) for its effectiveness and
efficiency. To meet this objective required assessment of
the concept's implementation including constraints and
advantages. This involved study of environmental, social,
economic, and institutional factors.
The following pages of this report describe the process utilized to
meet these two objectives and the results of the case study investigation
of Grand County, Colorado. An evaluation of the applicability of carrying
capacity concepts to mountain land planning is provided.
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PROCESS OVERVIEW
In focusing on evaluation of a carrying capacity based planning
process, it is necessary to explain what is meant by such a process and
of what it consists. After this explanation, the planning process utilized
in the study is overviewed.
Planning
The planning orientation for this study is quite simple and is illus-
trated in figure 1. The system is in some "original state" at time period t_.
Through a "process" which occurs over time, the "probable state" at time t+1
has a high probability of emerging. Rather than accepting this probable
state, the object of planning is to illustrate how to reach some "desired
state" by t+1.
While the objective of planning is quite easily articulated, specifica-
tion of the original state, process, and probable and desired states is
quite complicated. The basic components of the system are shown in Table 1.
It is clear that for each of the three stages there are three primary
Desired
State
Probable
State
Time t
Time t+1
Figure 1. An abstraction of the planning problem.
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components: Individual preferences and behavior, resource capabilities,
and institutions. Comprehensive planning requires consideration of all
dimensions shown in the table so that the probability of reaching the
desired state is increased.
Table 1. Components of the planning situation.
System
Characteristics
Original State
Process
Desired
State
Preferences and
behavior
Facilities and
activities for
meeting indi-
vidual needs
Behavioral ex-
planations of
behaviors and
changes in
behavior
Individual
aspirations
Resource capa-
bilities and
environmental
impacts
Relationship of
environment to
facilities and
activi ties
Resource
capabilities
Environmental
impacts
Institutions
Existing
institutions and
their character-
istics
Institutions as
a way government
can intervene
and redirect
activity toward
desirable state
Social goals
translated
into facilities
and institutions
A critical element in this conceptualization of planning is the search
for the desired state. The approach utilized in this study to find the
desired state involved evaluating the impact of several alternative future
states on the system components. Carrying capacity, as the quantification
of an alternative future, fits within this general conceptual framework but
the focus is the set of alternative futures to be evaluated.
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Carrying Capacity
The carrying capacity concept, while used by many people, has essen-
tially the same functional meaning in all cases. In the context of human
systems its use begins with a decision maker being charged with defining
"quality" of the environment (often only a portion of the environment).
At his disposal he often has information about natural resources, peoples'
desires, institutions, and the current situation. This information is
filtered through his own screening mechanisms, and he articulates one or
more definitions of quality—or what is desired. Each definition is an
alternative future. Coupling these alternative states with different
physical-geographic systems one can calculate carrying capacities. A
capacity is the number of people and their distribution which can be accom-
modated by a future in a given physical-geographic system. Figure 2 shows
the molar components of this calculation and shows the steps necessary in
the planning process after carrying capacity calculation.
The planning framework discussed in this report is often considered
"carrying capacity based planning." It derives this label from the opportu-
nity afforded in the planning process to calculate a carrying capacity for
a specific alternative future. One need not, however, consider the process
as focusing on carrying capacity. There are other, more important com-
ponents to the process.
Another way to view the process is to begin with alternative futures
and treat them as driving forces changing an area. A central concern
becomes the impact of each alternative future on subsystems of the total
system. Possible subsystems to consider are: (1) demographic, (2) economic,
(3) infrastructure, and (4) environmental. One output of this process is
assessment of impact of changes on the four subsystems. These impacts are
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Resources
People
Institutions
Current Situation
ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
PHYSICAL-GEOGRAPHICAL
SYSTEM
J
CARRYING CAPACITY
CALCULATION
IMPLEMENTATION
MANAGEMENT
PROGRAM
Figure 2. The carrying capacity based planning process
from a decision-making perspective.
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expressed as values attached to a set of system indicators which are common
to all the alternative futures. Figure 3 illustrates this impact stage of
the planning model.
ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
D
MODEL
DEMOGRAPHIC
ECONOMIC
INFRASTRUCTURE
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
ON MODEL
COMPONENTS
EXPRESSED
THROUGH
INDICATOR
Figure 3. Impact generation process.
Once an alternative future is defined and the impact of its realization
identified, a substantial amount of information is available to select a
"desired" alternative future. In essence, one can choose which future, or
combination of futures, is most likely to provide desired outputs. From
this point, decision makers can select a "desired future" for which to
strive. The task then is one of building the set of policies and programs
to achieve the desired future, and change the "process" from paths that
lead toward other futures. The final steps are implementing the policies
and programs to reach the objective and monitoring and evaluating the
effectiveness of the process.
Within this study, the alternative futures approach to carrying capacity
based planning was utilized. Actual carrying capacity was viewed as only
one indicator of the state of the total environmental system.
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Study Process
The process used in the study followed the outline provided by figure 2.
The most difficult stages in this process were identifying a relevant set
of alternative futures and then settling on one future to follow through the
remainder of the process.
The first objective in the process was to develop a set of relevant
alternative futures. Figure 4 shows a broad outline of this stage of the
process. To delineate alternative futures demanded considerable inventory
work to identify the current situation and the forces actively shaping the
future. Inventories were made of the economic situation, environmental
resources, population structure and behavior, infrastructure elements (e.g.,
roads, schools, etc.), opinions of government officials, opinions of
resident publics, and identifiable growth forces and development plans. In
most cases secondary data were utilized, but where data did not exist, e.g.,
public desires, primary data were collected.
Once all inventories were completed, the information was examined for
relevancy to construction of broad, "future" scenarios. Five scenarios were
generated outlining future possibilities ranging from emphasis on preservation
of unallocated land resources to active industrial development. The titles
given these scenarios were: Preservation; Preservation/Tourism; High
Development: Tourism; High Development: Extractive and Light Industry;
Moderate Development: Tourism/Industry. In developing these scenarios, there
is a degree of subjectivity in the synthesis of inventory data. The criteria
utilized to delineate the scenarios were based upon the capability of the
study area to support the scenarios and the likelihood that each scenario
would be acceptable to an easily identifiable portion of the study area's
resident population. All five scenarios are realistic for the study area in
that they met these criteria.
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INVENTORY
ECONOMIC SITUATION
ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES
POPULATION STRUCTURE
AND BEHAVIOR
INFRASTRUCTURE ELEMENTS
PUBLIC DESIRES
GROWTH FORCES
V
SYNTHESIS
RELEVANT
ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
EVALUATION
OF INVENTORY
DATA
Figure 4. Deriving alternative futures.
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After deriving the scenarios, they were transformed into more specific
alternative futures by categorically and quantitatively specifying the
meaning of the scenarios. A level of employment change and the type of
employment was specified for each scenario. The result was a list of five
alternative futures from which a desired future could be chosen. (Other
alternatives are certainly possible but to test the process they were not
necessary.)
The alternative futures were run against several sub-systems models as
shown in figure 5. A model is simply a representation of some real situation.
The purpose of this analysis was to determine the social and environmental
impacts associated with each alternative. It was our belief that a neces-
sary criterion against which to evaluate each alternative was its set of
impacts, i.e., to preferentially choose between alternatives one needs to
know the consequences of the choice.
RELEVANT ALTERNATIVE
FUTURE
SUB-SYSTEM MODELS
IMPACTS
ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES
ECONOMIC
POPULATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
Figure 5. Evaluating impacts of alternative futures.
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The models for this impact analysis were derived from the inventories
which were conducted in phase one of the process. The kinds of models
developed were as follows: Economic, economic base; population, cohort-
survival; infrastructure, statistical-descriptive; environmental, map overlays
The economic, population, and infrastructure models were computer programmed
and directly linked together so that they could be operated synergistically.
Environmental resource modeling was done on map overlays, with one overlay
representing constraints imposed by each scenario.
To assess impacts from alternatives, the employment change data were
run through the economic, population, and infrastructure models to determine
population levels and resource and infrastructure needs. Then, these needs
were spatially located on the resource map overlays.
The final phase in selection of the desired future is shown in figure
6. Here, the alternatives and their consequences are subjected to evalu-
ation by relevant publics. The approach utilized in this study was a survey
of County residents giving them an opportunity to express a preference for
each alternative. In the case of this study, the rank accorded each alterna-
tive was tallied and the alternative receiving the most acceptable scores
was selected as the "desired future" for further analysis. A more sophis-
ticated system of selection was not utilized because the "test" nature of
this study made that unnecessary.
After selecting a desired future, one additional step in the planning
process was necessary. Implementation schemes were discussed to show how
the desired alternative future might be reached. Such schemes can be used
to delineate the bounds on the kinds of land use activities deemed acceptable
in location, design, and cost parameters. A final step in the study process
was an evaluation of the process including estimates of workability, cost,
and acceptability.
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ALTERNATIVES AND
THEIR IMPACTS
EVALUATION
CRITERIA
CHOICE
0 <=$>
ACCEPTABLE
CHANGE
0
DESIRED
FUTURE
ACCEPTABLE
INVESTMENT
Figure 6. Selection of desired future.
Several conclusions emanate from the test of this process. First,
the process is costly relative to many county planning budgets. But, given
pooling of funds by several governmental agencies, the costs are not pro-
hibitive. Second, while the process does meet the objectives of a good
planning process, there are some problems in smoothness of operation.
There are personnel, logistics, and cooperation problems which any user
should consider before utilizing the process. Third, the process has poten-
tial to be highly acceptable to both users and publics. It is open, compre-
hensive, and provides a large data base for inputs to land use decisions.
In the following section of the report, each of the components of
the study process is described via the case study of eastern Grand County,
Colorado. The data needs for the study and data sources and analytical
models used are described. A desired alternative future is selected and an
implementation and management strategy is discussed.
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CASE STUDY—EASTERN GRAND COUNTY
The planning process described in the preceding section of this report
was applied in a case study of eastern Grand County, Colorado. Specific
steps taken in using the process are described in the following paragraphs.
Data sources, analytical techniques and models, data interpretation,
decision making processes, and other aspects of the planning activity are
identified.
Study Area
The study area shown in figure 7 was the eastern portion of Grand
County, Colorado. The geographic boundaries of the area are R74W on the
east and R77W on the west. The northern boundary was the northernmost
private land in the Kawuneeche Valley adjoining Rocky Mountain National
Park, and the southern boundary was the county line where Summit and Clear
Creek counties abut Grand County. Seventeen USGS topographic map quad-
rangles cover the area. They are: Byers Peak, Fall River Pass, Isolation
Peak, McHenrys Peak, Monarch Lake, Mt. Richthofen, Berthoud Pass, East
Portal, Empire, Radial Mountain, Fraser, Granby, Grand Lake, Strawberry
Lake, Trail Mountain, Shadow Mountain, and Bottle Pass. Only the latter
seven maps contain private lands and were used in subsequent analyses.
Most of the private lands in the study area are in its central portion.
These lands are encircled by U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management,
National Park Service, and various state land holdings. The lowest elevation
in the study area is approximately 2438 meters (8000 feet) while the highest
is above timber line at over 4266 meters (14,000 feet).
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ARAPAHO
NATIONAL
FOREST
ROCKY a#r
NATIONAL
GRAND I park
LAKE. K
'GRAND LAKE
'SHADOW UT. RES
16RANBY RES
HOT SULPHUR
SPRINGS
KREMMLING
PARSHALL
GRANBYi
TABERNASH
FRASER
HIDEAWAY PARK
WINTER PARK
ARAPAHO
NATIONAL
FOREST
Figure 7. Study area.
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The study area contains several prominent recreational attractions
and areas. Both Rocky Mountain National Park and Shadow Mountain National
Recreation Area (composed primarily of three lakes—Grand, Shadow Mountain,
and Granby) are important summer recreation areas. They also service some
winter recreation demands. Winter Park Ski Area and some other winter
recreation developments are also in the area. Dispersed recreation activity
takes place on abundant forest and range land and along the river and stream
courses feeding the upper Colorado River.
Within the study area are two primary highway routes and six communi-
ties. U.S. Highway 34 is the. highway passing through Shadow Mountain
Recreation Area and Rocky Mountain National Park. The community of Grand
Lake is found along this route just before the route enters the southwest
section of the Park. The other major highway is U.S. 40 which traverses
the county from east to west. U.S. 40 is a major transcontinental highway
route which, in the Rocky Mountain states, connects Denver, Colorado with
Salt Lake City, Utah. The residents and visitors in Grand County utilize
U.S. 40 to access the Denver Metropolitan Area as well as to travel between
most of the County's communities. Winter Park, Hideaway Park, Fraser,
Tabernash, and Granby are all located along U.S. 40.
Deriving Alternative Futures
In implementing the process as outlined previously, deriving a set of
relevant alternative futures was the first major task. As was mentioned,
this demanded a considerable amount of inventory in order to describe the
current situation and to forecast information which might influence the
future. Inventories of the environmental resources, population structure,
economic situation, and public and governmental official opinions were made.
These inventories are described in the following paragraphs beginning with
those for environmental resources.
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Resource Analysis
The inventory of environmental resource information was done utilzing
secondary data (already collected) where available and combining this infor-
mation with primary data collected by the resource team. Information was
displayed for all resources utilizing a common format.
The United States Geological Survey 7% minute topographic map series
was chosen as the base for mapping the resource components. This map format
was chosen because of its compatibility with mapping by other resource
agencies (e.g., U.S. Soil Conservation Service, U.S. Bureau of Land Manage-
ment, Colorado State Forest Service). Also this map scale is suggested for
use in identifying hazard areas in compliance with Colorado Law (Chapter 106,
Article 7, Colorado Revised Statutes, 1974) otherwise known as House Bill 1041.
The proportional scale of the 7% minute maps is 1:24,000 (one unit
measured on the map is equal to 24,000 units measured on the ground). At
this scale, 4.2 centimeters on the map is equal to 1 Kilometer on the ground
(2 5/8 inches equals 1 mile). The mapping scale of 1:24,000 limits the size
of the smallest land area which can be represented on the maps. Differences
in resource components which occur in areas smaller than two hectares
(approximately five acres) may not appear on the maps.
The accuracy with which specific natural resources have been mapped
depends upon the nature of the resource and the precision of the initial
survey. Features such as soil types and fault traces are variable in nature
and may not conform precisely to the lines delineating them on the maps.
The transfer of information from different mapping scales also affects map
accuracy. The location of the vegetation, soils, and geologic hazard
boundaries can generally be considered accurate to within ± 60 meters
(200 feet) of their actual positions on the ground. The wildlife and
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-19-
visual vulnerability maps, because of the mobile and subjective nature of
their respective components, may have considerably less accuracy. However,
these boundaries are usually accurate to ± 400 meters (1200 feet).
These limitations of scale and accuracy should be considered in the use
of resource information mapped at a scale of 1:24,000. This information is
intended to indicate the locations and types of specific resource hazards
or limitations. Field investigation and more detailed mapping at larger
scales is necessary for intensive site planning on small areas.
Slope
Importance. The primary use of slope in the Grand County case has been
as a land use constraint. The effect of slope in this role varies according
to steepness of the gradient and the nature of soil and geological material
on the site. On steeper slopes there exists a greater potential for erosion,
slope failure, and landscape scarring. Where suitable fuels occur, any
increase in slope causes an increase in the rate of spread for wildland fires.
Also, in the higher mountains steep slopes are potential avalanche areas.
Four slope classes were selected: less than 10 percent, 10 to 29 percent,
30 to 44 percent, and slopes 45 percent or greater. These classes indicate
ranges of relative severity of slope limitation for land development.
Slope limitations, however, may be overcome if money and technology are
invested, usually through engineering practices.
Data Source. Slope data were obtained from analysis of U.S.G.S.
topographic quadrangles.
Situation Description. In the study area, most of the private land is
described by the first and second slope classes; that is, relatively flat
to gently sloping. This occurs since most of the private land lies in the
river bottoms and valleys that compose Middle Park. Some private land is
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-20-
found on the steeper slopes, but the majority of the steeply sloped land
in the study area is administered by the BLM or the U.S. Forest Service.
Interpretation. Slope limitations are relatively minor on land with
slopes less than 10 percent. But, slope is still an important consideration
on these lands because significant erosion, slope failure, and other phe-
nomena can occur, particularly in areas where there are unstable soils and
geologic materials.
The relative severity of limitations is moderate on lands with slopes
from 10 to 29 percent. Considerable grading, cutting and filling, and other
land alterations are necessary for construction of roads or buildings.
Costly engineering measures may be required to stabilize the soil and pro-
vide adequate drainage. Construction may create visual scars that detract
from the scenic quality of the landscape. These limitations become increas-
ingly significant on slopes approaching 29 percent.
On slopes between 30 and 44 percent, limitations are relatively severe.
The rate of spread for wildfires may be two to four times as fast as in
similar vegetation on level ground. Slope stability and erosion problems
make construction extremely expensive. Because of the limitations, the
county has adopted regulations that prohibit buildings from being placed on
slopes steeper than 30 percent (phone conversation with Stan Broome, Grand
County Planner, October, 1974). It is also recommended that roads and other
improvements requiring cutting and filling should not be constructed across
slopes steeper than 45 percent without first making extensive engineering
studies of stability problems. The visual scars created by construction on
steep slopes should be considered in planning the location of improvements.
Slopes steeper than 45 percent are generally left in their natural
state due to their inherent problems. When there is heavy snow accumulation
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-21-
and a suitable sliding surface, these slopes are potential snow avalanche
areas. Construction limitations are extremely severe in these areas
(Lautenbach, et al_., 1974).
Slopes in the less than 10 percent class do not present any real prob-
lems for development. Slopes in the 10 to 29 percent class present moderate
limitations for development. Land in these two classes is generally con-
sidered to be allowable for development. The other two classes, 30 to 44
percent and 45 percent and greater, have been recognized as presenting
economic and safety problems for development by both the county commissioners
and various state agencies. Problems include wildfire potential, avalanche
potential, rockfall and landslide potentials, erosion, and economic problems
in placing roads, water, and sewer systems. For these reasons slopes in
these two classes are often classed as prohibitive to development.
In the study area, slope was used in the delineation of wildfire and
avalanche potentials and in conjunction with soils and geologic analysis.
Vegetation
Importance. Because of its beauty and magnificent scenery, eastern
Grand County attracts thousands of visitors every year. One of the reasons
for this attraction is the abundance and variety of vegetation. However,
vegetation does much more than increase the aesthetic quality of the area.
It is also extremely important in cycling nutrients, maintaining water
quality and quantity, providing wildlife habitat, reducing noise, screening
man-made structures, and reducing the adverse effects of extreme weather
conditions.
In this study vegetation was used to define and recognize ecosystems
and as an indicator of less obvious components of these ecosystems. This
was done because vegetation has several very useful classification attri-
butes. These are:
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-22-
1. Vegetation is easily seen and observed.
Everywhere we look in the mountains we see a mosaic of
vegetation--trees, shrubs, forbs, and grasses. This pattern
of vegetation is stable enough to photograph for later com-
parison or analysis. An inventory of this easily observed
component is much easier to make than an inventory of other
components which are hidden, transient, or obscure.
2. Vegetation as an integrator.
All factors of the environment interact to influence loca-
tion, composition, and productivity of plant communities.
Vegetation is representative of this integration, and this
characteristic may be used to indicate environmental con-
ditions which are important in establishing land uses.
3. Vegetation is a divisible factor.
Broad classifications of plant communities can be subdivided
into smaller and more precise units for detailed analysis.
This feature allows the examination of ecosystems at increasing
levels of intensity. Broad views of the environmental situ-
ation are possible and can be basic to further study, while
detailed analysis can sort definite sub-systems out of a
seemingly complex pattern.
4. Vegetation matures over time.
Plant communities have a destiny as well as a beginning. Thus,
the current structure and composition of a community of plants
is a reflection of its history of development and can also
give some idea to its future. Potential productivity is
another part of future maturity. Therefore, vegetation can
be utilized in making planning predictions and projections.
5. Vegetation responds to use.
When areas are utilized or occupied by man's improvements, vege-
tation will respond to that use. Vegetation can be removed,
reduced, or enhanced by use. Often the response of vegetation
is somewhat predictable and adverse events can be avoided by
proper planning.
By utilizing these characteristics of vegetation, we can begin a useful
classification of natural mountain ecosystems for planning purposes. A
true ecosystem does consist of more environmental factors than just vege-
tation. It is important, therefore, to look at these vegetative units
as being representative of an integrated environment (Lynch, 1974).
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-23-
Data Sources. Numerous sources are available for vegetation mapping.
For instance, the U.S, Forest Service has timber type maps, the Bureau of
Land Management (BLM) has vegetation keyed on its land, and the Soil Con-
servation Service (SCS) has range land vegetation mapped for private lands.
Even U.S.G.S. topographical quadrangles type vegetation with forested lands
differentiated from non-forested lands. In the study area, the Colorado
State Forest Service had mapped the vegetation in the summer of 1973. The
State Forest Service quadrangles that had been completed were available
for use in the study. The vegetation in the areas that had not been pre-
viously mapped was interpreted from aerial photographs. All primary and
secondary data were thoroughly field checked.
Situation Description. The area's vegetation occurs in three distinct
ecological zones. These zones are differentiated by vegetation which occurs
within them and they have fairly well-defined elevational limits based on
length of growing season, rainfall, climate, and other environmental factors.
In Grand County, the montane ecological zone extends from the valley
floor at an elevation of about 2,438 meters (8,000 feet) to approximately
2,894 meters (9,500 feet). Vegetation in this zone is characterized by
riparian vegetation and irrigated haylands along river bottoms. Pure stands
of lodgepole pine, Douglas fir, blue spruce, and aspen are found a little
higher in this zone. Also in this zone are extensive areas of sagebrush
and other mountain brush types. Summer brings forth fields of colorful
flowers like golden banner, paintbrush, and columbine. This subalpine
zone starts about 2,894 meters (9,500 feet) and extends to timberline.
Stands of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir dominate this region. Well-
developed alpine tundra exists at elevations between 3,352 meters (11,000
feet) and 4,266 meters (14,000 feet). The tundra is characterized by many
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-24-
small, extremely fragile plants like bog birch, alpine phlox, moss campion,
and fairy primrose. This ecological zone is climatically harsh, and the
vegetation is the most sensitive to disturbance.
More specifically the study area is composed of nine major vegetation
types. These types are defined as ecosystems, A mountain land ecosystem
is a composite of living systems which contain both benefits and problems;
hazards as well as opportunities. Such a viewpoint realizes that mountain
lands are a complete integration of all environmental factors, both living
and nonliving (Lynch, 1974). An example is an area where 50 percent of the
tree cover is lodgepole pine and is called a lodgepole ecosystem.
The nine major ecosystems found in the study area are: 1) irrigated
haylands which dominate the vegetation along the river bottoms; 2) riparian
ecosystems which parallel the waterways; 3) bog ecosystems found along water
routes; 4) sagebrush ecosystems which prevail on the hillsides and in the
less desirable hayland areas; 5) 6) and 7) lodgepole pine, aspen, and
juniper ecosystems which comprise the forests of the montane zone;
8) meadow ecosystems; and 9) spruce-fir ecosystems which exist in the sub-
alpine zone.
Some of the forest lands in the area have been cut over or are presently
being cut. In addition, Mountain Pine Beetle (D. monticolae) is presently
attacking stands of lodgepole pine south of U.S. Highway 40 and can be
expected to continue to spread. Much of what is now irrigated haylands was
at one time areas of sagebrush, but due to the addition of irrigation water
and chemical spraying, these areas have been converted to profitable agri-
cultural lands.
Interpretation. Each ecosystem has its own natural uses as well as its
own opportunities and constraints for man's development. The natural uses
referred to are such things as the ecosystem's ability to provide wildlife
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-25-
habitat, protect water quality, provide aesthetic viewpoints, and protect
watersheds, When development is anticipated, the value of an ecosystem
must be weighted in two ways: First, one must consider the social and
economic values placed upon the various natural products which an ecosystem
produces, such as a bog ecosystem's ability to improve or maintain water
quality. Each ecosystem has its own specific value in providing products.
For instance:
1. The irrigated hayland ecosystems, in addition to providing
economic value through hay products, provide scenic quality
and open space;
2. The riparian ecosystem has visual and aesthetic value while
also being a protector of water quality through its role as
a buffer zone and filter between the water course and possible
sources of pollution;
3. The bog ecosystem acts as a water filtering system in the main-
tenance of water quality;
4. The sagebrush ecosystem is mainly used for domestic grazing
and wildlife habitat, but it may also be used as an indicator
of soil fertility and water content;
5. The lodgepole pine ecosystem provides lumber and other wood
products as well as having watershed values;
6. The aspen ecosystem has visual and aesthetic value;
7. The juniper ecosystem is used mainly for domestic grazing;
8. The mountain meadow ecosystem has high visual and aesthetic
value and is usually associated with production of high
quality water;
9. The spruce-fir ecosystem is valuable for wood products while
also having high visual and watershed values.
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-26-
Second, the economic value or cost of land development in each eco-
system provides basic opportunities and constraints to land development.
On a relative economic scale, development within a lodgepole, sagebrush,
juniper, or irrigated hayland ecosystem will be less expensive than develop-
ment within a bog or other water related ecosystem simply because of the
engineering problems that arise when building on wetlands. The aspen eco-
system would also be more expensive to develop because of engineering
problems in soil stabilization. The spruce-fir ecosystem is characterized
by a high water table and much above ground water flow in the spring and
early summer making land development a problem.
So i 1 s
Importance. The soil resource is an important element of the natural
resource base and has a large influence upon urban and rural developments.
Soil is the natural medium for the growth of plants, its physical properties
and life forms serve to breakdown wastes and purify water, it serves as the
foundation material for buildings, roads, and all other land based, man-
made structures.
The soils which occur in an area are a result of complex interactions
between physical and biologic processes. These soil resources are irre-
placeable when considered in terms of the exceedingly long periods of time
necessary to produce the soils in their present form.
Misuse of soil resources in the past has led to deterioration and in
some cases destruction of the resource base itself. Very often this misuse
is the result of a lack of knowledge and understanding of the relationships
between the soil and proposed land uses. To avoid further misuse of this
element of the natural resource base it is necessary to acquire definitive
data about the soil resource, and then to use these data to guide the
location and construction of proposed developments.
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Data Sources. In 1973, the Grand County Board of Commissioners
negotiated a cooperative agreement with the U.S, Department of Agriculture,
Soil Conservation Service, for the completion of detailed soil surveys for
the privately owned lands within the County. The work on the eastern
portion of the County was completed in the summer of 1974 and the data
were available for this resource analysis.
The field survey was mapped on aerial photographs, of 1:20,000 scale,
and was compiled and transferred to 1:24,000 scale U.S. Geological Survey
topographic quadrangle maps.
Situation Description. In the detailed soil survey, 31 individual
soil series which occur in the study area were identified. A listing of
the series names and their corresponding mapping unit designations are con-
tained in Table 2. The field mapping units as shown on the soils maps also
contain a slope class as designated by the letter following the map unit
number. These slope classes were defined by the soil field mapping
specialist and should not be confused with the slope classes which were
defined for the separate slope analysis of the study area. The soils slope
classes and their corresponding ranges are as follows:
B = 0- 3 percent slopes
C = 0- 6 percent slopes
D = 6-15 percent slopes
E = 6-25 percent slopes*
F = >15 percent slopes*"*
Exceptions:
* Soil unit 71E has slopes from 15-25 percent
** Soil units 70F and 71F have slopes >25 percent
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-28-
Table 2. Soil series names and map symbols.*
Map Symbol Soil Series Name
3 &
71
Clayburn loam
4
Cummulic Cryaquolls
12
Handran gravelly loam
15
Bearmouth sandy loam
19
Forelle loam
20
Leavitt loam
23
Aaberg clay loam
25
Hitchen clay loam
26
Binco clay loam
27
Cimarron loam
28
Mayoworth clay loam
33
Roxal loam
35
Woodhall loam
38
Gateway loam
39
Cebone loam
40
Anvik loam
43
Grenadier gravelly loam
46
Lake Creek loam
47
Leadville fine sandy loam
51
Cryoboralls-Rock Outcrop Complex
58
Rogert gravelly loam
59
Emerald gravelly sandy loam
60
Yovimpa clay loam
70 &
69
Frisco-Peeler Complex
72
Cowdrey loam
73
Hierro sandy loam
74
Youga loam
75 &
76
Quander cobbly loam
77 &
17
Scout cobbly sandy loam
79
Upson coarse sandy loam
W
Histic Cryaquolls
*Source: U.S. Soil Conservation Service, Kremmling, Colorado
Preliminary Data; subject to change
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The soil series data have been grouped into soil associations, or sets
of highly similar soil types. In the study area, these associations are
closely related to geologic parent materials. These associations and
their general land use suitability interpretations are shown in Table 3.
The following association descriptions have been condensed from the
detailed association descriptions provided by the U.S. Soil Conservation
Service in Kremmling, Colorado. These descriptions are of a preliminary
nature and are subject to change prior to publication of the final soil
survey report. They are:
1. Cimarron--Ma.yoworth--Hitchen. This association is com-
posed of neutral to mildly alkaline, shallow to deep,
fine-textured soils on mountain side-slopes and ridges.
It occurs in approximately 25 percent of the study area,
primarily over shale and Troublesome mudstone bedrock,
in the sagebrush vegetation zones north and northwest of
the town of Granby and west of Granby Reservoir. It is
made up of about 40 percent Cimarron loam, 25 percent
Mayoworth clay loam, and 20 percent Hitchen clay loam.
The remaining 15 percent of this association consists of
Binco clay loam, Aaberg clay loam, Cowdrey loam and Rocky
Outcrop.
2. Youqa--Woodha11--Quander. This association is composed
of neutral to slightly acid, moderately deep and deep,
medium-textured soils on mountain slopes and ridges. It
occurs in about 10 percent of the study area on parent
materials of glacial drift, sandstone, and basalt, in the
sagebrush vegetation zones between the town of Granby and
Granby Reservoir, and iirmediately north of Willow Creek
Reservoir. It consists of 50 percent Youga loam, 25
percent Woodhall loam, and 15 percent Quander cobbly loam,
with the remaining 10 percent made up of Cimarron,
Clayburn, Anvik, Handran, and Rock Outcrop soils.
3. Frisco--Peeler--Hierro. This association is composed of
slightly to strongly acid, deep, medium-textured soils
on glacial drift. It occurs in approximately 15 percent
of the study area and is located in small areas throughout
the entire study area, in lodgepole pine, Engelmann spruce,
subalpine fir, and aspen vegetation zones. It consists of
about 45 percent Frisco gravelly sandy loam, 20 percent
Peeler gravelly sandy loam, and 20 percent Hierro sandy
loam, with the remaining 15 percent comprised of Cowdrey
loam, Scout cobbly sandy loam, Cummulic Cryaquolls and
Rock Outcrop soils.
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Table 3. General soil association interpretation, eastern portion, Grand County, Colorado.
Soil
Ass 'n
Soi 1
Series
Depth
to
Bedrock
Shrink-
Swel 1
Potential
Septic
Tank
Filter
Field
Sewage
Lagoons3
Shallow .
Excavations
Dwel1ings
without
Basements
Roads
and
Streets
1
Cimarron
Mayoworth
Hitchen
40"
20-40"
10-20"
High
High
High
Sev.1
Sev.1 »4
Sev."
SIight
Sev.4
Sev.4'5
Sev.2
Sev.2'4
Sev.2'4
Sev.3
Sev.3
Sev.3 '4
Sev.3
Sev.3
Sev.3'4
2
Youga
Woodhal1
Quander
40"
20-40"
40"
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Mod.1
Sev."
Mod.5
Mod.6
Sev.5
Sev.5
Mod.2
Sev.4
Sev.5
Mod.3
Mod.3
SIi ght
Mod.3
Mod.4
SIi ght
3
Fri sco
Peeler
Hierro
40"
40"
40"
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Mod.5
Mod.1
Mod.1
Sev.5
Mod.6
Mod.6
Sev.5
Mod.5
Mod.5
SIight
Mod.3
Mod.3
SIight
Mod.3
Mod.3
4
Scout
Upson
Grenadi er
40"
20-40"
40"
Low
Low
Low
Slight
Sev.*
SIight
Sev.6
Sev.4'6
Sev.5'6
Sev.5
Sev.4
Sev.5
SIight
Mod.4
SI ight
SIight
Mod.4
SIight
5
Gateway
Cowdrey
20-40"
40"
High
High
Sev.4>1
Sev.1
Sev.4
Slight
Sev.2 »4
Sev.2
Sev.3
Sev.3
Sev.3
Sev.3
6
Cryaquol1s
Handran
40"
40"
Low
Low
Sev.1
SIight
Sev.7
Sev.5»e
Sev.7
Sev.5
Sev.7
SI ight
Sev.7
SIight
Source: U.S. Soil Conservation Service, Kremmling, Colorado Preliminary Data: Subject to Change
'Slow permeability 4Depth to bedrock 6Rapid permeability
2High clay content 5Excess cobbles and stones 7Flooding and depth to water table
3Shrink-swell potential
Mod. = Moderate aSlopes not rated, use following as guide: 0-2% = Slight, 2-7% = Moderate; 7%+ = Severe
Sev. = Severe bSlopes not rated, use following as guide: 0-8% = Slight, 8-15% = Moderate; 15%+ = Severe
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4. Scout--Upson--Grenadier, This association is composed of
medium to strongly acid, moderately deep and deep, medium-
and coarse-textured soils on mountain slopes and ridges.
It occurs in about 20 percent of the survey area in the
Fraser River Drainage northeast of Hideaway Park, north
and west of Tabernash and in the Kawineeche Valley north
of Shadow Mountain Reservoir. The association occurs on
very steeply sloping mountainsides and ridges, over parent
materials of glacial drift, highly weathered granitic
rock and metamorphic gneisses, shists, and slate. The
dominant vegetation consists of lodgepole pine, spruce,
fir, and aspen. It is composed of 60 percent Scout
gravelly sandy loam, 15 percent Upson sandy loam, and 10
percent Grenadier gravelly sandy loam. The remaining
15 percent of the association consists of Frisco-Peeler
gravelly, sandy loam, Hierro sandy loam, and Rock
Outcrop soils.
5. Gateway—Cowdrey. This association is composed of neutral
to slightly acid, moderately deep and deep, fine-textured
soils on mountain slopes, uplands and terraces. It occurs
in approximately 20 percent of the study area on ridges
and terraces over parent materials of Troublesome mudstone
bedrock and glacial drift with dominant vegetation types
of lodgepole pine and aspen. It is comprised of 45 percent
Gateway loam and 35 percent Cowdrey loam with the remaining
20 percent consisting of the Frisco-Peeler soil complex.
6. Cryaquolls--Handran. This association is composed of
neutral to slightly acid, shallow to deep, coarse- and
fine-textured soils on alluvial terraces and floodplains.
It occurs in about 10 percent of the study area along
the major streams and rivers, on parent materials of
alluvium and colluvium of mixed minerology. The dominant
vegetation types are wheatgrass, bluegrass and other water
tolerant grasses and sedges. About 60 percent of this
association consists of Cummulic Cryaquolls, with 35 per-
cent Handran gravelly loams. The remaining 5 percent of
the association is comprised of Cimarron loam, Youga loam,
and Quander cobbly loam soils.
Interpretation. Soils, like many other resource elements, display a
continuum of attributes across the landscape. For this reason, the bounda-
ries between soil mapping units may not represent an abrupt change in
physical characteristics. The location of these boundaries is a somewhat
subjective decision which is made by the soils field mapping specialist.
These decisions are made based upon the scale of mapping, and generally
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reflect that the area contained within the boundaries of any mapped unit
is at least 85 percent homogeneous and displays the described character-
istics of that mapping unit.
Soils mapping, when displayed at a scale of 1:24,000 serves to
delineate probable areas with general limitations and hazards as described
by the detailed soil series interpretations. However, these series
descriptions cannot, and should not, be used as the basis for decision-
making for small areas of a hectare (2.471 acres) or less. The soil
information should be used to indicate the occurrence and severity of
limitations inherent to any soil unit. More detailed on-site investiga-
tions should be required based on the proposed land use to determine those
limitations which have a direct bearing upon it.
Each of the 31 soil series which occur in the study area has certain
inherent limitations. The list of these limitations is given in Table 4.
These limitations have been grouped into two general categories: 1) health
and safety limitations, and 2) economic and engineering limitations. The
health and safety limitations are those which could have an effect upon
surface and ground water quality in areas where individual wells and/or
septic systems are used. The economic and engineering category includes
the limitations which may cause structural damage to buildings and roads.
Also included are those limitations which can be easily overcome through
the use of special design and construction methods and increased financial
investment. These soil limitations were incorporated into the study by
including them in the typing for the soil classification and suitability
matrix.
-------
: 4
Jill
5
6
8
14
15
17
1
2
3
4
7
9
10
11
12
13
16
18
-33-
1 imitations incorporated in the use suitability matrix.
Description of Limitation
Health and Safety
Bedrock too close to the surface; may act as an
impermeable barrier to effluent percolation.
Water erodes soil easily.
Soil temporarily flooded; septic systems inopera-
tive during periods of flooding.
Water moves through soil too slowly; could allow
surface ponding of effluent.
Water moves through soil too rapidly; ineffective
filtration of effluent and possible ground water
contamination.
Slope too great; percolating effluent may surface
in short distance without proper filtration.
Economic and Engineering
Borrow areas are difficult to reclaim
Decrease in soil volume is excessive under load.
Soil corrodes uncoated steel pipe.
Walls of cutbanks are not stable.
Excessive amounts of organic matter in soil.
Freeze-thaw actions can damage roads and
structures.
Difficult to compact soil if removed.
Numerous rock fragments, 25.4 cm. (10 in.) or
larger, in soil.
Soil has inadequate strength to support loads.
Too deep to ground water.
Soil expands when wet and shrinks when dry; may
cause damage to structures.
Many rock fragments smaller than 25.4 cm. (10 in.)
in soil.
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Geologic Hazards and Mineral Resources
Importance. Geology is an important component of our environment.
Since the overwhelming majority of man's activities are conducted upon the
earth's surface, we are all affected by the existing geologic situation
and geologic processes which are constantly changing our physical surround-
ings. These changes usually occur very slowly and imperceptibly, but
sometimes they occur rapidly, and often with drastic and unpleasant results.
Man's activity and presence in an area transforms many natural geologic
phenomena into geologic hazards which pose a threat to life and property.
Consequently, a major concern in land use inventory is the identification
of geologic hazards so that they can be avoided, controlled, or used in a
manner which will not endanger human life and property. On the other hand,
many geologic conditions and processes are highly beneficial to man, pro-
ducing extensive mineral resources to meet his present and future needs.
Thus, an additional concern in land use inventory is the identification of
mineral resources so that they may be suitably and efficiently used.
Data Sources. Information for the identification of geologic hazards
and mineral resources was obtained from: 1) published geologic literature;
2) published and open file geologic maps; 3) aerial photographs; 4) field
investigations; and 5) personal consultation with geologists who have
worked in the area.
Situation Description. Eastern Grand County has a wide variety of
geologic hazards. Those hazards identified within the study area have been
divided into two major categories: 1) existing hazards and 2) potential
hazards.
"Existing" geologic hazards include those areas which show clear evi-
dence of past failure, movement, or flooding, and which, due to natural
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-35-
geologic processes or disruption of the existing geology can be expected
to change in the future. They include landslide and mudflow deposits,
rockfall areas, zones of faulted and fractured rock, floodplains, and some
alluvial fans.
"Potential" geologic hazards, on the other hand, include all other
areas which do not show evidence of past failure, movement, or flooding,
but which have the potential to change in the future, especially if the
existing geologic situation or natural geologic processes are disturbed by
man. Special emphasis in the study was placed upon potentially unstable
slopes.
Many of these geologic hazards are found in great abundance. At least
80 landslides, over 30 individual rockfall areas, and numerous faults, mud-
flow deposits, and alluvial fans have been identified in the study area.
Though floodplains and potentially unstable slopes cannot be counted
individually, they run well into the thousands of hectares.
Though geologic hazards are found throughout the study area, most of
them are concentrated in the mountains, where the terrain is steeper and
more rugged. Floodplains and some alluvial fans are found in the lower
elevations, but they are confined to the immediate area surrounding the
Colorado and Fraser Rivers and some of their tributaries. On the other
hand, many of the mountainous areas surrounding the study area are con-
tinually threatened by landslides, mudflows, and rockfalls. These hazards
are not confined to any particular area, thus adding to the extent and
severity of the problems encountered in mountainous areas.
The only known mineral resource of extractable quantities within the
study area is naturally occurring aggregate, namely, sand and gravel.
Mineral aggregate is an essential construction material. Great quantities
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are used in cement for foundations as well as in pavement for highways.
Eastern Grand County has an abundant supply of excellent mineral aggregate.
The meander plains of both the Colorado and Fraser Rivers and the valleys
of many of their tributaries contain aggregate of varying amounts and
quality in the form of alluvial and terrace deposits. These deposits are
quite capable of meeting all of the present and likely future needs of the
area.
Interpretation. Considering the number and extent of the geologic
hazards in the study area, any development in mountainous areas should be
limited and preceded by extensive geologic and engineering investigations.
However, both the Granby and Fraser Basins are relatively free of geologic
hazards, and based upon geologic criteria these areas encompass enough land
to meet all of the development requirements of the county.
Most of the sources of mineral aggregate are located in the Granby
and Fraser Basins, in close proximity to major transportation routes and
in areas where extraction poses no major engineering problems. The supply
of mineral aggregate is overwhelming, but many of the sources are located
on prime developable land. It is therefore suggested that the majority
of development in the basins be planned in those areas which are not also
sources of mineral aggregate. However, since many companies are already
extracting large quantities of sand and gravel from existing pits,
sources of aggregate not yet mined may not be a limiting factor in land
development. If development does occur in areas containing mineral aggre-
gate of good to excellent quality, it is suggested that a portion of the
area be designated as a source of aggregate to meet all of construction
needs of the development.
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Wildlife
Importance. Wildlife as a natural resource plays an important role
in the east Grand County study area for three reasons. The most obvious
is that it contributes to both aesthetics and recreation. The chance to
view the wildlife that inhabit the area is a strong attractant for many
summer tourists. Generally, glimpses of deer or elk or encounters with
small animals such as birds and rodents greatly enhance a recreational
experience.
A second reason why wildlife plays a significant role is that fall
hunting expenditures are important in the economy of the County. Since
equipment, food, and lodging payments bring supplementary income to resi-
dents of the County, the economic base is broadened by hunting activities.
Nobe and Gilbert (1970) have estimated that hunting and fishing expenditures
in 1968 for Grand County totalled $1,738,853. Deer hunting is nearly twice
as important as all other big game hunting combined, while fishing expendi-
tures account for over 60 percent of the total dollars spent (Nobe and
Gilbert, 1970).
A third reason wildlife are valuable to the County stems from wildlife's
role in ecological processes. Animal populations are organized in a vast
system of environmental checks and balances. While man is most interested
in big game and sport fishing species, predators, small mammals, and birds
are also important if an ecological balance is to be maintained. Man's
knowledge of ecological processes is still at an elementary stage. Linkages
between segments of the system are often hidden, and an action that appears
trivial may have far-reaching consequences to the ecological balance of the
system.
While the inclusion of wildlife information in a resource inventory is
clearly necessary and desirable, the accuracy of most wildlife data is highly
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suspect. Highway mortality figures for deer may be rather precise, but it
is essentially impossible to count exactly the number of a species that
exists in a large region. Beyond the problem of specific numbers is the
problem of defining an area in which the population will always be found.
It is possible to delineate general boundaries in which a herd may be found
during the winter, but absolutes should be avoided if possible. Boundaries
for a herd may change by as much as a mile depending on the prevailing
winds during a heavy snowfall. Boundaries also change from year to year
for no apparent reason (Wolfe, 1975).
However, since a map is the clearest way to demonstrate the area that
is likely to be inhabited by a species such as deer or elk, boundaries have
been drawn on the study area maps. A mapped area of general winter range
is an area with a high statistical probability of having deer on it during
the winter. It is an area where animals have been observed, and where
required food, water, and cover are found.
Data Sources. Much of the data used in this project is the result of
research that has been done during the last six years by the Colorado
Division of Wildlife. The Division has been studying the deer and elk herds
in the Middle Park area, a region that partially overlaps the study area.
Division Researcher Laren Roper provided the general data for deer and elk.
For deer, both general winter range and critical winter range were mapped,
as were migration routes. These three factors are considered to be the
limiting constraints on the deer population. General winter range is
defined as that area used through all or most of the winter months. Critical
winter range is defined as that area on which the herd will congregate
during periods of heaviest snowfall. These areas generally have a southern
exposure, are partially windswept, and have the necessary food, water, and
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cover. Deer typically use the same general path when they move down from
their high country summer range to their winter range, and these paths have
been identified and mapped as migration routes.
Only critical winter range was mapped for the elk populations. Elk
are in general more free-ranging than deer and may not have definable
general winter range. Laren Roper suggested that the elk stay in their
summer range until the first major snow--only then do they head for their
winter range. Depending on their location they may go to several different
areas by various paths. Wildlife Conservation Officer Jerry Wolfe generally
agreed with Roper's hypothesis, adding that only in circumstances where
there are geographical or man-made barriers will elk develop an historical
migration route. Therefore, neither general winter range nor migration
routes were mapped for elk.
Data were also obtained from the U.S. Forest Service for the northern
part of the study area. Several areas of general deer winter range were
added, along with some areas that are thought to be used by elk as May-June
calving grounds. These areas are typified as high south-facing benches
with abundant water and cover being available.
The draft maps were prepared and then re-examined by Jerry Wolfe, and
some boundary adjustments were made. The final maps are a product of con-
sensus, and contain information on the location of the following features:
elk critical winter range and calving areas, deer general and critical
winter range, and deer migration routes.
Situation Description. The east Grand County study area is historically
an area with an abundance of wildlife species. The construction of the Big
Thompson Project in 1949 flooded large areas of land used both by area
farmers and the resident wildlife, and since that time big game numbers have
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declined. Virtually all the wildlife in the study area are considered sub-
climax species. They thrive in early and intermediate successionary vege-
tational complexes. Timber harvests on U.S. Forest Service lands have
assured a moderate supply of early and intermediate vegetational stages,
but other factors have begun to impinge on opportunities for wildlife. It
is likely that only limited big game numbers will survive in the future.
These animals will survive on the remnant winter range areas on public land.
The reason for this rather bleak projection is the large areas of land
planned for development. Over 200 subdivisions are platted in the study
area and more are anticipated as the recreation and second home industry
enlarge. The developments themselves will result in an irretrievable and
unavoidable loss of habitat, particularly of winter range. Summer range
for most big game species is in high elevation areas and is predominantly
federal land, so summer range will not be limiting. Winter range is in the
lower elevations, and much of the suitable land is privately owned. Snow-
mobiles, high concentrations of people and automobiles, free running dogs,
and a proliferation of roads will result in a significant reduction in
both numbers and species of wildlife. Animals expected to remain are those
that are tolerant to man and his activities, specifically rodents, birds,
and coyotes.
At the present time there is a shrinking but still broad range of wild-
life present. Table 5 lists the species of birds and large and small mammals
the Division of Wildlife personnel have observed. Mountain lions have been
reported, but not observed by Division personnel.
Interpretation. Sound land planning can do a great deal in reducing
the impacts of man's activities on the wildlife in east Grand County.
Generally stated, developments containing large numbers of people which
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Table 5. Birds, small mammals, and large mammals observed in Grand County,
Colorado.
BIRD SPECIES
Common Name
Scientific Name
Abundance
Vesper sparrow
Pooecetes qramineus
A*
Brewer's sparrow
Spizella breweri
C
Cassieus sparrow
Aimophila cassinii
R
Chipping sparrow
Spizella passerina
C
White-crowned sparrow
Zonotrichia leucophrys
0
Raven
Corvus corax
C
Common crow
Corvus brach.yr.ynchos
C
Black-billed magpie
Pica pica
A
Bank swallow
Riparia riparia
C
Barn swallow
Hirundo rustica
C
Cliff swallow
Petrochelidon pyrrhonota
C
Rough-winged swallow
Stelgidopteryx ruficollis
C
Mountain bluebird
Si alia curricoides
C
Red-tailed hawk
Buteo jamaicensis
C
Swainson's hawk
Buteo swainsoni
0
Marsh hawk
Circus cyaneus
0
Goshawk
Accipiter qentilis
0
Sparrow hawk
Falco sparverius
C
Peregrine falcon
Falco pereqrinus
R
Prairie falcon
Falco mexicanus
0
Common nighthawk
Chordeiles minor
C
Golden eagle
Aquila chrysaetos
C
Bald eagle
Haliaeetus leucocephalus
R
Horned lark
Eremophila alpestris
A
Red-winged blackbird
Agelaius phoeniceus
A
Yellow-headed blackbird
Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus
C
Green-tailed towhee
Chlorura chlorura
A
Red-shafted flicker
Colaptes cafer
C
Grey-headed junco
Junco caniceps
C
Western meadowlark
Sturnella neglecta
C
Mourning dove
Zenaidura macroura
C
Violet green swallow
Tach.ycineta thalassina
c
Robi n
Turdus miqratorius
c
Sage grouse
Centrocercus urophasianus
c
Blue grouse
Dendraqapus obscurus
c
Brewer's blackbird
Euphagus cyanocephalus
A
Audubon's warbler
Dendroica auduboni
C
Hairy woodpecker
Dendrocopos villosus
C
Loggerhead shrike
Lanius ludovicianus
0
Wilson's phalarope
Steqanopus tricolor
0
Ki 11 deer
Charadrius vociferus
C
Common snipe
Capella qallinaqo
c
Dusky flycatcher
Empidonax oberholseri
0
Black-capped chickadee
Parus atricapi11 us
c
Common bushtit
Psaitriparus minimus
0
*R = rare; 0 = occasional; C = common; A = abundant
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Table 5--corit.
BIRD SPECIES (cont.)
Common Name
Scientific Name
Abundance
Belted kingfisher
Megacer.yle alc.yon
0
Western tanager
Piranqa ludoviciana
0
Yellow warbler
Dendroica petechia
0
Wilson's warbler
Wilsonia pusilla
R
Rock wren
Salpinctes obsoletus
C
Band-tailed pigeon
Columba fasciata
R
Mountain chickadee
Parus sclateri
C
Brown-headed cowbird
Molothrus ater
C
Poorwi11
Phalaenoptilus nuttallii
C
Broad-tailed hummingbird
Selasphorus platycercus
C
Rufous hummingbird
Selasphorus rufus
C
Sage thrusher
Oreoscoptes montanus
C
Great blue heron
Ardea herodias
0
Clark's nutcracker
Nucifraga columbiana
C
Spotted sandpiper
Actitis macularia
0
Bullock's oriole
Icterus bullockii
R
MacGi11ivray's warbler
Oporornis tolmiei
R
House wren
Troglodytes aedon
C
Ruby-crowned kinglet
Regulus calendula
R
Trai11's flycatcher
Empidonax traillii
R
Townsend's solitaire
Myadestes townsendi
0
Gray-crowned rosy finch
Leucosticte tephrocotis
C
Stellar's jay
C.yanocitta stelleri
C
Pine grosbeak
Pinicola enucleator
C
American goldfinch
Spinus tristis
0
Cassin's finch
Carpodacus cassinii
C
Western kingbird
T.yrannus vertical is
0
Eastern kingbird
Tyrannus tyrannus
R
Gray jay
Perisoreus canadensis
C
Pinon jay
Gymnorhinus cyanocephala
0
Downy woodpecker
Dendrocopos pubescens
C
Lark bunting
Calamospiza melanocorys
0
Great horned owl
Bubo virqinianus
0
Screech owl
Otus asio
0
Burrowing owl
Speotyto cunicularia
R
Short-eared owl
Asio flammeus
0
Common grackle
Quiscalus quiscula
C
Mallard
Anas platyrh.ynchos
C
Green-winged teal
Anas carolinensis
C
Shoveler
Spatula clypeata
C
Coot
Fulica americana
C
Canada goose
Branta canadensis
R
Gadwal1
Anas strepera
Pintail
Anas acuta
*R = rare; 0 = occasional; C = common; A = abundant
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Table 5--cont.
SMALL MAMMALS
Common Name
Scientific Name
Abundance*
Mountain cottontail
S.ylvilaqus nuttallii
0
Richardson's ground squirrel
Spermophi1 us richardsonii
A
Golden-mantled ground
squirrel
Spermophilus lateralis
C
Badger
Taxidea taxus
C
Colorado chipmunk
Eutamias quadrivittatus
A
Snowshoe hare
Lepus americanus
C
Meadow vole
Microtus pennsylvanicus
C
Coyote
Canis latrans
C
Red squirrel
Tamiasciurus hudsonicus
C
Muskrat
Ondatra zibethicus
0
Porcupine
Erethizon dorsatum
C
Spotted ground squirrel
Spermophilus spilosoma
R
Mountain vole
Microtus montanus
C
Beaver
Castor canadensis
0
Yellow-bellied marmot
Marmota flaviventris
C
Bobcat
Lynx rufus
0
White-tailed jackrabbit
Lepus townsendii
C
Red fox
Vulpes fulva
C
Gray wolf
Canis lupus
R
Longtail weasel
Mustela frenata
C
Striped skunk
MejDhitis mephitis
A
Raccoon
Procyon lotor
C
Mink
Mustela vison
C
Bushytail woodrat
Neotoma cinerea
C
Deer mouse
Perom.yscus maniculatus
A
*R = rare; 0 = occasional; C =
common; A = abundant
LARGE MAMMALS
Common Name
Scientific Name
Abundance*
Black bear
Euarctos americanus
C
Mule deer
Odocoileus hemionus hemionus
A
Rocky Mountain elk
Cervus canadensis
A
Pronghorn
Antilocapra americana
R
* R = rare; 0 = occasional; C = common; A = abundant
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destroy or alter large quantities of wildlife habitat, particularly critical
areas, inflict the most damage to wildlife population. As development
intensity increases, the damage to wildlife also increases. However, con-
centration of human populations will have less effect on wildlife if that
concentration is placed in areas that have little or no value to wildlife.
Since the most critical areas to the big game species have been mapped,
we know where development should be avoided. In the land allocation phase
of this project no land necessary for wildlife was consumed by developments
under any of the scenarios. Theoretically, there would be no impact on
the wildlife populations. Even if areas of critical winter range have been
consumed, the absolute effect on a herd using that range is not well known.
For example, if 20 percent of the critical winter range for a deer herd is
used by man, it is not clear that the herd will decrease by 20 percent.
The effect of the habitat loss may not become apparent until a particularly
severe winter occurs. Usually even if the herd decreases by 20 percent,
we do not know if the animals have actually died or if they have selected
a new habitat area that fulfills their requirements. However, it may be
generally stated that as critical areas are consumed, greater pressure may
result in a lowering of forage quality in the suitable area. The lowered
quality will then affect the entire herd, reducing the herd's visibility
and survival potential during periods of increased stress.
Habitat destruction has a negative primary effect, but there are also
secondary or peripheral effects around the primary impact area. In areas
with rather low density development the basic wildlife requirements may be
provided, but the site may no longer be suitable for a variety c-f reasons.
A lack of accessibility into and through the area due to roads, fences, or
buildings is one reason. Dogs and cats roaming the area will also
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discourage wildlife. Noise, a by-product of almost all human land use
activities, is likely to have a significant negative impact on wildlife.
Chemicals are also commonly used in many land use activities. Herbicides,
fertilizers, and pesticides all impact on wildlife, but often in ways that
do not become apparent for years.
Reallocation of water and the draining of wet meadows and marshes are
also extremely damaging to wildlife. Clearing and grading of land areas
have similar impacts by completely removing large areas of habitat from
wildlife use. If the animal populations are to be protected, the above
land uses need to be carefully regulated.
Wildfire
Importance. Fire hazard in wildland areas is becoming more intense
because developments in adjacent areas are occurring without proper con-
sideration of dangerous wildfire situations and without provision for
adequate fire protection. Fires are increasingly a threat not only to
valuable natural resources but also to human lives and facilities adjacent
to wildland areas.
When human activities are combined with flammable vegetation, rugged
terrain, and seasonal dry spells, dangerous fire situations are created.
Fire is a potential hazard in the total study area, but the severity of the
hazard can be increased or reduced depending upon the decisions that are
made regarding location of development and the protective measures to be
provided. There are varying degrees of fire hazard in different areas,
necessitating varying levels of safety and preventive measures.
Hazard severity increases on steep slopes and in dense plant growth.
Dense stands of coniferous forest and brush lands are most hazardous, par-
ticularly in rugged terrain. A fire burning in such fuels can spread
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rapidly through the tree crowns, destroying everything in its path. Fields
of dense, dry grass are hazardous since fire can spread extremely fast
through these fine fuels. But because grass fires are usually less diffi-
cult to control due to lower fuel volume, the hazard is not as severe as
in densely forested areas. Fire danger in stands of deciduous trees is not
as critical because they are generally more fire resistant.
A fire spreads much faster on sloping terrain than on level ground.
Any increase in slope steepness results in a proportionately greater in-
crease in the rate of fire spread. Therefore, fire hazard in any type of
vegetation is much greater on steeper slopes. Fire danger is especially
severe in narrow valleys and steeper draws or ravines with dense vegetation.
Because of strong winds which may be funneled through these areas, they
can act as "fire chimneys" and draw a fire upslope at an extremely rapid
ra te.
When a fire burns a home or other facility in a rural area, the
structure is likely to be destroyed unless the landowner can extinguish the
blaze himself. In rural counties, volunteer fire departments usually have
a longer response time due to personnel dispersion and poor access to
remote tracts of land.
Improved fire fighting forces alone will not assure protection. Devel-
opment must incorporate precautionary measures that will alleviate serious
fire hazard conditions. Once hazardous situations are allowed to develop,
they may be beyond practical correction.
Data Source. The primary source for wildfire hazard data in Colorado
is the Colorado State Forest Service. The C.S.F.S. is responsible for
identifying and mapping wildfire hazard areas in Colorado. Wildfire mapping
in eastern Grand County had been completed by the C.S.F.S., except in the
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Bottle Pass area. For the Bottle Pass area, the Guidelines and Criteria
for Wildfire Hazard Areas were followed and a wildfire hazard map was
generated.
Situation Description. Land ownership patterns in the study area are
a cause of some concern to fire fighting officials. Large amounts of
publicly owned lands, intermingled with privately owned lands and numerous
small communities, form a complicated land ownership pattern in many parts
of the County. In many areas, these privately owned lands are being sub-
divided. These intermingled private lands and communities constitute
sources of fire risk, with the~ subsequent potential for serious loss of
life and property.
Mountain pine beetles are a new cause of concern for fire fighting
officials. Large areas of lodgepole pine are being attacked leaving pockets
of standing dead trees. As the attack continues, the numbers of these fire
prone trees will increase, thus heightening chances of wildfire.
In the past wildfires have been small and few. Fire history of the
area shows the average number of fires to be two per year. Man-caused fires
account for three out of four fires and are usually less than one acre in
size. These occur mostly along roads or in campgrounds. Sixty percent of
these fires are caused by transients passing through the area. Although
history shows that the majority of fires are small, potential exists in
many remote and heavily fueled areas for severe wildfire problems (Hot
Sulphur District Management Plan, Arapahoe National Forest, 1974).
Interpretation. The potential for destruction of natural resources
by fires burning in a developed area can be kept to an acceptable level.
By examining the factors which determine fire behavior, areas can be iden-
tified and classified according to the varying severity of wildfire hazard.
Conditions can be specified under which land areas in each hazard class
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may be safely developed and used. Hazard can be reduced by implementation
of fire safety precautions with regard to site design, building density,
construction of streets and roads, provision of adequate water supplies,
and fuel reduction measures (Lautenbach, et al_., 1974).
Ecosystems were given fire danger ratings by examining fuel composition,
density, and the percent slope upon which they occur. Five ratings, 0, A,
B, C, and X, were applied to the area during the study. 0 standing for
No Hazard, A for Low, B for Medium, C and X for Severe Burning Ability.
C and X are differentiated by the types of fuels composing each group.
Based on these ratings the mountain dry (irrigated hayland), bog, aspen,
riparian, and wet meadows were classed as low severity. Sagebrush and juniper
were classified as moderate fire danger and spruce-fir and lodgepole were
classified as severe.
Avalanche
Importance. Each year thousands of avalanches occur in the high moun-
tains of Colorado. Most of these avalanches are unseen and unheard simply
because they occur in areas which are remote and uninhabited. Each year
development pushes further into these remote areas which may eventually
result in loss of life and property by avalanches. In high mountain
counties like Grand County, identification and mapping of avalanche paths
is a necessity in land use planning.
Avalanche paths are not always obvious to an untrained observer. If
an avalanche has not run in many years, it is probable that vegetation will
have moved back into the slide area. However, a trained observer is
usually able to spot these areas by recognizing such clues as a significant
change in vegetation type and age as compared with the vegetation found on
adjacent undisturbed slopes.
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In Grand County large avalanches occur only occasionally at eleva-
tions below 8,500 feet. Due to less snowfall and higher temperatures, the
danger in these lower elevations is from small snowslides and sluffs during
periods of heavy snow accumulation. At these lower elevations, potential
slide areas are mainly found on slopes with north and east aspects where
the snow accumulates faster and stays longer because of reduced solar
exposure. Potential avalanche areas can also exist in areas of steep
cliffs or densely forested slopes.
A potential avalanche hazard exists when several conditions are present.
First, the mountain slopes must be steep enough to cause the snow to slide
under the force of gravity (greater than 45 percent). A relatively smooth
sliding surface must also exist between two snow layers or under the snow
cover. In addition, the snow must have been deposited on .the slope in a
manner and to a depth which will result in sliding. The snowfall intensity,
the density of the snow, the settlement of the snow, the temperature, and
the presence of wind all influence avalanches. Lastly, some event must
trigger or release the mass of snow from its resting place. This can be a
sudden rise in temperature, snow falling from overhanging rocks or trees,
or by the presence of a person in the avalanche area (Lynch, 1974). A
complete identification procedure for potential avalanches may be found in
the Colorado State Geological Survey Special Publication No. 6, 1974.
Data Source. Avalanche study is'a' relatively new field in the United
States. The best records are to be found in areas where avalanches have
occurred along highly traveled routes or in populated areas where life or
property has been lost. Data sources on other avalanche areas is almost
nonexistent. The best source of avalanche information for the more remote
areas are the people who live or work in the area of concern. These people
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may include local residents, the U.S. Forest Service snow rangers, and
local highway departments. These sources combined with potential areas
identified by slope were used to delineate avalanche hazards.
Situation Description. There are no existing avalanche paths affect-
ing private land within the study area and all slopes over 45 percent were
classified as potential avalanche areas. The steep slope areas are mostly
high in the mountains and away from private lands.
Avalanches are always possible when the conditions are right. In our
definition of potential avalanches we stated that the slopes had to be
greater than 45 percent. All such areas were excluded from development when
compositing resources under different developmental scenarios. If there
had been any known avalanches affecting private land in the county, these
areas would also have been excluded from development.
Interpretation. Most of the private lands in the study area are in
valley bottoms and free of avalanche potential. Where slopes were found
over 45 percent, avalanche hazard was judged high and the lands classified
as unsuitable for development.
Visual Vulnerability
Importance. The visual resource is one of the primary tourist attract-
ants of eastern Grand County. Management of the scenic resources is impor-
tant since the mountain scenery is important both as a tourist attractant
and as an intrinsic attribute of the community. The visual quality creates
an immediate impression on any person entering the area and is an important
factor contributing to the region's quality of life.
U.S. Forest Service and National Park Service lands form the backdrops
for many of the scenic vistas. The county also has several large bodies
of water. Unplanned and unregulated developments are presently strewn along
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the shores of the lakes, degrading the visual environment. This degrada-
tion could threaten the economic base of the study area, since the scenic
opportunities are a major factor that attract both visitors and residents.
While it is difficult to measure the exact visual and aesthetic
quality of a view or an area, it is possible to measure the disruption
potential that exists. Some areas, such as flat shorelines, ridgetops,
or steeply sloping areas with low vegetation, are highly vulnerable,
visually, to any type of structural development. Almost any land use
change in such areas is likely to damage the visual experience as perceived
by a viewer.
The primary purpose of this section is to delineate areas where land
use changes have a high, moderate, or low effect on the visual resource.
By delineating these areas, it is easier to judge the impacts that develop-
ment may have in different areas of the County. The role of the land
planner is then one of guiding developments away from high impact areas
whenever possible.
Visual vulnerability is defined as the ability of a site or landscape
to visually absorb or screen structures, land use modifications, or altera-
tions of the vegetation (Lautenbach, et al_., 1974). Private lands within
the study area have been classified into three vulnerability categories--
high, moderate, and low.
Data Source. Several methods are available for classifying the land-
scape into visual vulnerability categories. The method used in this
project is easy to implement being based solely on slope and vegetation
type. Six vegetation complexes were identified in this project as eco-
system indicators, and three slope classes were combined with the vegeta-
tion types in a decision matrix. An example of a decision matrix is pre-
sented on the following page.
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Table 6. A visual vulnerability matrix.
Vegetation
Sage-
Dry
Water-
Bog/Wet
Slope
brush
Meadow
courses
Conifers
Deciduous
Meadows
30% and
above
High
High
High
High
High
N/A
10 to
30%
High
High
High
Moderate
Moderate
N/A
0 to
10%
Moderate
High
High
Low
Low
High
This particular matrix was used when the visual resource received a
high weighting under a particular land use scenario. For scenarios in
which the visual resource received a lower weight the matrix was constructed
under less rigid constraints. Only the watercourses maintained their High
rating in all scenarios. This emphasis on the preservation of riparian
vegetation and associated visual opportunities is supported by Litton's
findings that any recreational opportunity is enhanced by the presence of
water (Litton, 1971).
When the matrix was constructed with less rigid constraints, the
matrix shifted toward more of the cells being Low or Moderate in their
rating. Theoretically, if the visual resource received a weight of one,
the decision matrix would assign Low Visual Vulnerability ratings to all
slope and vegetation combinations.
Situation Description. The private lands in the study area are gener-
ally those that would be considered the most valuable for agricultural
or residential use. The BLM and the Forest Service own much of the
steeply sloping sagebrush or forested areas. Private holdings include
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both the bottom lands where irrigated agriculture is possible and the grazing
lands up the hillsides from the valley bottoms. In addition, much of the
land adjacent to the west side of the Three Lakes area is privately owned.
The visual vulnerability analysis places most agricultural land in the
High Vulnerability category. The irrigated hay meadows and the sagebrush-
covered hillsides have very poor vegetational screening.' Hence, on the
basis of a visual intrusion criterion, development would be steered away
from these lands. The forested private lands higher on the hillsides or in
areas with flatter contours and greater moisture would generally receive
lower vulnerability ratings.
Interpretation. High Visual Vulnerability applies to lands with a low
visual absorption capacity. Development of these lands will cause changes
that are highly visual to the viewer. An example of such an area would be
either a meadow or a steep slope (greater than 30 percent) covered with low
vegetation such as sagebrush. Both areas lack the capacity to screen any
changes that occur. Flat areas with low vegetation are often pleasing
visually, but are highly sensitive. A viewer's eye will be drawn to any
object or structure that breaks the floor-like lack of contour. Similarly,
any object or structure on a steep slope or ridgetop will also attract a
viewer's attention. Building a road or structure on a steep slope requires
extensive site modification, and large amounts of vegetation are necessarily
removed in the process. The problem is accentuated by the long time periods
required to revegetate steep slopes in semi-arid mountain areas. The
visual scars caused by erosion before revegetation is complete are also
a problem. Therefore, lands in the High Visual Vulnerability category
probably should be prohibited from land uses requiring structural develop-
ment. They are suitable, however, for activities such as low intensity
recreational use.
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Moderate Visual Vulnerability includes those lands that are capable
of absorbing structures, land use changes, and vegetation alterations without
excessive visual change. These areas still require careful visual manage-
ment. Examples of such areas include an aspen or a conifer stand on a
moderate slope. Both areas have the ability to partially screen structures
or land use changes if the vegetation is carefully preserved. If site
designs make the best use of the screening vegetation, low density struc-
tures can be constructed with only a minimal impact on viewers. The
Moderate Visual Vulnerability category is restrictive to land uses requiring
intense structural development. It is best suited for low intensity
development such as large-lot residences or second homes. In these areas,
visual regulations and review procedures might limit the use of bright
colors, excessive height, or high contrasts to the surrounding visual
environment.
Low Visual Vulnerability includes the remaining lands which can visu-
ally accommodate more intensive levels of development and modification.
Height, contrast, and color of the structures are still important if the
landscape qualities are to be maintained. An example of this category is
a conifer stand in an area of zero to ten percent slope. Conifers are
excellent screening vegetation, so this area could absorb large numbers of
structures with few of them being visible either to other residents in the
development or to a viewer from a road br hiking trail. Only simple
review procedures are necessary for this visual vulnerability category.
On the basis of these descriptions of the three Visual Vulnerability
classes, it should be possible to judge the visual impact that proposed
developments might have on different areas of the county. When the visual
environment is important to the welfare of an area's citizens, as it is in
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Grand County, visual vulnerability ratings may be useful to identify areas
where restriction needs to be placed on development. Both maintenance of
the existing visual environment and means to mitigate visual intrusion are
important in such areas.
Hydrology
Importance. Consideration of the effects or urbanization or other
development upon the hydrology of an area is especially important in moun-
tainous regions. Of particular concern are those factors which produce
changes in peak flow characteristics, changes in total runoff, and changes
in the quality of water (Leopold, 1968). In addition, surface and ground
water availability can become constraints upon future developments. Con-
sideration of hydrologic changes is considered in a later section of this
report which deals with impacts. Surface and ground water availability is
considered here.
Data Source. Data for assessing the surface and ground water availa-
bility were obtained from the Office of the Colorado State Engineer.
Situation Description. There are presently large amounts of original
and supplemental appropriations of agricultural water rights (surface)
within the study area. A total of 17.08 cubic meters per second (603 cubic
feet per second) is allocated from the Fraser River, 12.6 c.m.s. (445
c.f.s.) from the Colorado River, and 2.77 c.m.s. (98 c.f.s.) from Willow
Creek (Colorado State Engineer, 1969).
Colorado's system of water law presently allows the purchase, transfer,
and in some cases condemnation of agricultural water rights for domestic
and municipal purposes. Depending upon demand, certain portions of these
rights could thus be converted for human uses. These allocated flow rights
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are equivalent to 2.8 billion liters per day (740.6 million gallons per
day). Assuming a consumptive demand of 140 liters (37 gallons) per capita
per day (Stoltenberg, 1970), this amount is sufficient to support a popula-
tion in excess of 20 million persons. Clearly, water supply is not
presently a limiting factor to development of the study area.
In 1965 a ground water resource reconnaissance study was completed
in the Grand County area by the U.S. Geological Survey (Voegeli, 1965).
This survey concluded that the main sources of ground water supply were from
the glacial and alluvial sediments which occurred in the Middle Park area.
Voegeli also concluded that the geologic conditions necessary for water
production from large capacity wells do not generally exist in Grand
County, but that doubling or tripling the number of small wells in the
alluvial aquifers should have no adverse effect upon the wells already in
use.
A survey of the well log records contained in the Voegeli report,
and more recent records from the Colorado State Engineer's office, indicate
that bedrock aquifers which may exist have not been identified or evaluated
for potential water yields.
Interpretation. Analysis of the hydrologic resource did not suggest
significant quantity limitations in the Grand County area. However, the
critical water sources which must be protected were not identified. Never-
theless, the usual methods of well construction and development density
controls should be sufficient to protect the wells located in alluvial
sediments from contamination.
Air Quality
Importance. Airshed resources are important in terms of their ability
to assimilate residuals. Residuals resulting from industrial, recreational,
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and residential activities within the region are managed by infrastructure
elements such as'air emission controls. The characteristics of the environ-
mental media and state and federal standards determine the extent to which
the airsheds may be relied upon to absorb these residuals. Grand County
is an area where clean air is of major concern to its important tourist
industry. The influence of air quality on tourist activities and the
influence of the activities themselves on air quality, may ultimately
determine the region's carrying capacity.
Data Source. Both topography and meteorology are important considera-
tions for air pollution potential; air circulation follows the topography
of watersheds. Conditions of temperature inversions and wind direction and
magnitude are of particular concern; shallow mixing depths and light winds
present the highest air pollution potential. Such meteorological data are
limited for Grand County, as conventional analysis procedures used in the
evaluation of potential air quality and air pollution carrying capacity of
airsheds requires intensive field studies. The process followed for the
incorporation of air quality into the carrying capacity model was to
establish the ambient (background) air quality in the study area and then
calculate the "carrying capacity" of the area using state standards as
limiting criteria. Both state and federal air quality standards are
listed in Table 7.
As previously noted, air quality'data for the study area are essentially
nonexistent. The Colorado Department of Health, charged with collecting
air pollution data, did not have any for the study area. The only data
gathered were obtained from the Colorado Division of Highways which studied
the situation at Fraser for preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement
undertaken in 1974. Air samples were taken at seven locations along U.S. 40;
pollution was well below current Colorado State Standards.
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Table 7. Federal and Colorado air quality standards.
Pollutant
Type of
Standard
Time
Interval
Effective
Year
Concentration
uq/m3 PPM
Carbon Monoxide
Federal
Primary &
Secondary
1 hour
8 hour
1977
1977
40,000
10,000
35
9
Hydrocarbons
(non-methane)
Federal
Primary &
Secondary
3 hour
(6-9 a.m. only)
(see
ozone)
160
0.24
Nitrogen Dioxide
Federal
Primary &
Secondary
1 year
(ari th.)
(undetermined)
100
0.05
Ozone
(Oxidants)
Federal
Primary &
Secondary
1 hour
1977
160
0.08
Sulfur Dioxide
Federal
Primary
24 hour
1 year (ari th.)
1975
1975
365
80
0.14
0.03
Secondary
3 hour
1975
1,300
0.5
State
Non-Designated
areas
24 hour
1970
15
0.005
Designated
1 hour
1973
1975
800
300
0.28
0.10
24 hour
1973
1976
1980
300
150
55
0.10
0.05
0.02
1 year (arith.)
1973
1976
1980
60
25
10
0.02
0.009
0.004
Particulates
Federal
Primary
24 hour
1 year (geo.)
1975
1975
260
75
—
Secondary
24 hour
1 year (geo.)
1975
1975
150
60
--
State
Non-Designated
areas
24 hour
1 year (arith.)
1970
1970
150
45
—
Designated
24 hour
1 year (arith.)
1973
1976
1980
1973
1976
1980
200
180
150
70
55
45
—
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The lack of data prompts the use of modeling to determine air pollu-
tion potential. Such models have been developed at the Rocky Mountain
Forest and Range Experiment Station (Marlatt, 1974). Using hypothetical
pollution sources, at "worst case" levels a Gaussian dispersion model is
used to map generalized air pollution potential. These maps provide an
estimate of the carrying capacity of the study area for air pollution.
This model, because of its inherent limitations, should only be used to flag
areas which have a high likelihood of air pollution. Lack of accurate
mountain wind field and temperature gradient data forces assumptions to be
made for these variables in the model.
Situation Description. Areas of Grand County have the following air
pollution potentials for south and north wind conditions: Grand Lake--
severe and high; Granby--moderate and high; Tabernash--high and severe;
Fraser--low and high; Hideaway Park--low and low; Winter Park--low and low;
Berthoud Pass—low and low. In calculating specific pollution levels for
these areas, data on automobile emission levels need to be adjusted for
high altitude. Table 8 shows comparative data for automobile emissions
at high and low altitudes. Emissions from wigwam-tepee burners are also
important in Grand County. Emission factors for these burners are in Table 9.
Interpretation. With information on air pollution potential, decisions,
regarding the safe location (within established standards) of developments
can be made. In addition to the constraint of established standards, air-
shed carrying capacity may be constrained by both health and social criteria.
The spectrum of health responses to pollution exposure are shown in Figure 8.
Also, one must realize that before health effects are obvious or air quality
standards are violated, people may complain about air pollution.
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Table 8. Carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, and nitrogen oxide emission factors for light-duty vehicles
at low and high altitude.
EMISSION FACTOR RATING: A
Exhaust emission factors
at low mileage per model year3
1973
Location and
through
Post
pol1utant
Pre 1968
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972b
1974b
1975
1975
Low altitude
(excluding Calif.)
Carbon monoxide
g/mi
87
46
39
36
34
19
19
1 .8
1 .8
g/km
54
29
24
22
21
12
12
1.1
1.1
Exhaust
hydrocarbons
g/mi
8.8
4.5
4.4
3.6
2.9
2.7
2.7
0.23
0.23
g/km
5.5
2.8
2.7
2.2
1.8
1 .7
1 .7
0.14
0.14
Nitrogen oxides
g/mi
3.6
4.3
5.5
5.1
4.8
4.8
2.3
2.3
0.31
g/km
2.2
2.7
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.0
1 .4
1 .4
0.19
High altitude
(excluding Calif.)
Carbon monoxide
g/mi
130
74
48
72
75
42
42
1 .8
1 .8
g/km
81
46
30
45
47
26
26
1.1
1 .1
Exhaust
hydrocarbons
g/mi
10
6.0
5.4
6.1
5.3
4.9
4.9
0.23
0.23
g/km
6.2
3.7
3.4
3.8
3.3
3.0
3.0
0.14
0.14
Nitrogen oxides
g/mi
1.9
2.2
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.1
1 .4
1 .4
0.31
g/km
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.9
1.9
0.87
0.87
0.19
aPre-1968 results are not at low mileage but are arithmetic means of tests of a random sample of vehicles.
There is no reason to present low mileage emission rates for pre-1968 vehicles because they are not subject
to exhaust control device deterioration.
^Estimates based on the relationship of low mileage emissions to standards for 1971 and earlier controlled vehicl
Source: Environmental Protection Agency. Air Pollutant Emission Factors.
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Table 9. Emission factors for wood and bark waste combustion in boilers.
EMISSION FACTOR RATING: B
Emi ssions
Pollutant
1b/ton
kq/MT
Particulates
Bark
With fly-ash reinjection
75 (15)
37.5 (8.5)
Without fly-ash reinjection
50
25
Wood/bark mixture
With fly-ash reinjection
45 (9)
22.5 (4.5)
Without fly-ash reinjection
30
15
Wood
5-15
2.5-7.5
Sulfur oxides (SO2)
1.5
0.75
Carbon monoxide
2-60
1-30
Hydrocarbons
2-70
1-35
Nitrogen oxides (NO2)
10
5
Source: Environmental Protection Agency. Air Pollutant Emission Factors.
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Figure 8. Spectrum of responses to pollutant exposure.
Source: Berry, 1974
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Water Quality
Importance. Water, like air, is important in terms of its absorptive
capacity for residuals. Residuals from human activities which are deposited
in waters are dealt with by infrastructure elements. The characteristics
of the environmental media, state and federal standards, and laws and
ordinances determine the extent to which the waters of Grand County may
be relied upon to absorb these residuals. Colorado has a non-degradation
clause in its water quality standards and, therefore, maintenance of
present water quality levels is important. Additionally, Grand County is
an area where clean water is of major concern to its tourist industry. The
influence of water quality on tourist activities, and the influence of the
activities themselves on water quality, may ultimately determine the area's
carrying capacity.
Data Sources. The procedure was to collect data on existing water
quality in the study area and contrast this with the Colorado Water Quality
Standards to determine if surplus assimilative capacity exists. These
standards may be found in Table 10. Data for the study area were collected
using EPA's water quality information storage and retrieval system STORET
and published reports on the waters of Grand County.
Situation Description. Intensive water quality studies have been
undertaken by the EPA to develop additional information for use in a
water quality management strategy proposed by the Three Lakes Sanitation
District. Grand Lake, Shadow Mountain Lake and Lake Granby are all classi-
fied A.^ waters according to Colorado's Water Quality Control Commission
Standards. This classification suggests that there may be considerable
room for residual absorption in this area.
For other areas of the County, water quality data are insufficient to
estimate absorption potential.
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Table 10. Colorado water quality standards summary.
STANDARD
CLASS
A2
B1
B2
Settleable Solids
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Floatinq Sol ids
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Taste, Odor, Color
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Toxic Materials
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Essentially Free
Oil and Grease
Maximum - 10 mq/1
Maximum - 10 mg/1
Maximum - 10 mg/1
Maximum - 10 mg/1
Radioactive Material
Drinking Water
Standards
Drinking Water
Standards
Drinking Water
Standards
Drinking Water
Standards
Salinity
At or below present
levels.
At or below present
levels.
At or below present
levels.
At or below present ^
levels. f*
Fecal Coliform Bacteria
Geometric Mean of
<200/.100ml from five
samples in 30-da.y per.
Geometric Mean of
<200/100ml from five
samples in 30-da.y per.
Geometric Mean of
<1000/100ml from five
samples in 30-da.y per.
Geometric Mean of
<1000/100ml from five
samples in 30-day per.
Turbidity
No increase of more
than 10 J.T.U.
No increase of more
than 10 J.T.U.
No increase of more
than 10 J.T.U.
No increase of more
than 25 J.T.U.
Dissolved Oxyqen
6 mq/1 minimum
5 mq/1 minumum
6 mg/1 minimum
5 mq/1 minimum
Total Dissolved Gas Pressure
Maximum of 110% of
atmospheric pressure
—
Maximum of 110% of
atmospheric pressure
—
PH
6.5 - 8.3
6.5 - 8.3
6.0 - 9.0
6.0 - 9.0
Temperature
Maximum 68°F.
Maximum Change 2°F.
Maximum 90°F.
Maximum Change:
Streams - 5°F.
Lakes - 3°F.
Maximum 68°F.
Maximum Change 2°F.
Maximum 90°F.
Maximum Change:
Streams - 5°F.
Lakes - 3°F.
Phosphorus as P
Streams - max. 100 ug/1
Lakes - max. 50 uq/1
Streams - max. 100 ug/1
Lakes - max. 50 uq/1
Streams - max. 100 ug/1
Lakes - max. 50 ug/1
Streams - max. 100 ug/1
Lakes - max. 50 uq/1
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Interpretation. Because little is known about the water quality situ-
ation in Grand County, definitive statements about residuals absorptive
capacity cannot be made. Therefore, it seems prudent to proceed with devel-
opment cautiously. Colorado's non-degradation clause may limit the residual
input into water bodies.
Public Opinion Analysis
The public opinion analysis was based on the idea that planning can
not be done in a social vacuum. Two common reasons for the failure of land
use plans are: 1) plans often are not founded upon the needs and desires of
most citizens, and 2) they often do not adequately take account of political
realities. Consequently, if plans are to be successful they cannot be
merely idealistic notions of the planner in charge. They must instead
personify the values and preferences of the planner's constituents. The
Grand County planning team did not seek the approval of the public regarding
a specific plan, but attempted to involve the residents as much as possible
in the total planning process, beginning with the formulation of relevant
alternative futures.
In this study, both systematic and relatively unsystematic approaches
were utilized as a means of obtaining public opinion. Unsystematic assess-
ment was obtained by reading local newspapers and various County reports,
attending public meetings, and talking with County residents. Opinions were
also solicited from nonresident land holders and federal land managers.
The analytical portion of the study involved three major activities. A
survey of government officials was conducted through personal interviews,
and two questionnaire surveys were administered to the resident population.
Through this involvement the public became an active participant in the
planning process.
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Government Official Survey
Method. Political realities and the identification of power structures
within the planning boundaries have often been omitted in the planning
process. In order to avert possible conflicts and disapproval in latter
stages, government officials were interviewed as the first step in assessing
public opinion. The government officials survey was done on a relatively
informal basis. Officials were interviewed either at their office or in
their home. The average interview lasted 45 minutes. In general, the purpose
of the survey was to gather information about planning efforts, growth forces,
and political issues within the County. There were a number of predetermined
questions, but the officials were also encouraged to verbalize their own
perceptions of major issues confronting the County. A few of the most con-
sistently asked questions were:
Would you favor expansion of the industry?
Would you like to see more/less subdivision development?
Do you feel that growth will jeopardize the quality of the
physical and/or social environment?
Do you favor such developments as Bowen Mountain Ski Area, Val
Moritz Second Home Development, Rocky Mountain National Park
Wilderness Area, Three Lakes Recreation District?
Do you want more mining and timbering in the County?
What do you think are appropriate measures of control the govern-
ment should incorporate in land use plans (i.e., master plan,
transferrable development rights, zoning, etc.)?
What is your reaction to HB 1041 (the Colorado land use act)?
How do you feel about the presence of different federal agencies
in the County such as the Park Service, Environmental Protection
Agency, Bureau of Land Management, and Forest Service?
9) What do you think are the major land use issues confronting the
County?
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Situation Description. The resource and economic analyses of the Grand
County project only include the eastern portion of the County. However, it
was believed that when dealing with social, especially political, factors,
the entire County needed to be included in the analysis.
A comprehensive analysis is particularly necessary in an area such as
Grand County, due to the different economic conditions which almost literally
divide the County in half. In the eastern portion of the County, the resi-
dents are primarily dependent upon the tourist and recreation industry for
their livelihood. In the western sector, agriculture, timbering, and mining
form the economic base of the area. It was thus necessary to determine what
policy conflicts, if any, would arise from this economic division. For
instance, would the western government officials favor an increase in the
lumber and mining industries in contrast to eastern officials who might
view this expansion as a deterrent to the tourist industry? Or would the
eastern officials want to establish a policy of zoning prime agriculture
land as a means of retaining the aesthetic qualities of the County, and if
so, would this policy conflict with western goals?. Thus, the government
officials survey focused on two questions: 1) what are the major land use
and political issues before the County, and 2) what are the issues resulting
in either conflict or agreement?
The following general-interest issues became apparent as the interviews
progressed: 1) population growth and development, 2) land use controls,
3) government, and 4) aesthetics. Although these issues may be interrelated,
for the purposes of analysis they are discussed separately.
The extent of population growth and development will depend largely on
the role of tourism and business opportunities in the County. There was no
distinct consensus concerning the extent to which tourism should be
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encouraged. However, in the west side of the County the officials agreed
that they preferred to have tourist development in the east section.
Specific issues presently before the County include: 1) Bowen Mountain Ski
Area, 2) Rocky Mountain National Park Wilderness Area, 3) Metropolitan
Recreation District (which would provide a golf course and swimming pool
for Fraser residents), 4) Three Lakes Recreation District, and 5) develop-
ment of recreation sites on private land.
Regarding business opportunities other than tourism, most people were
in favor of expanding these opportunities. Except in Grand Lake, there
was much concern for establishing a stable, year-round economy. Specifi-
cally, there was almost total agreement that County officials should
encourage light industries to settle in the County (at this point not a
very realistic option). Other possibilities being considered by the offi-
cials were increased mining and timbering activities. It is recognized
that along with population growth there will be a need for more housing.
However, there is a difference of opinion whether to expand existing communi-
ties or develop new ones. This difference was not a function of the offi-
cial's location. There also appeared to be a general consensus for new
subdivision construction, providing it is "controlled properly."
Related to the second major issue, land use controls, many officials
voiced concern that legislation and controls are becoming too technical and
too time-consuming. The present issues before the county are 1) a master
plan and 2) zoning. With regard to zoning, mobile home restrictions are
viewed as a burden upon many of the residents, especially low-income and
the elderly. The opinions are divided concerning agricultural zoning. Some
people feel that zoning is necessary for the preservation of agricultural
land and the enhancement of the tourist industry. Others believe that it
-------
is in violation of the principle of private property rights, A priori
it was hypothesized that eastern officials would favor zoning and westerners
would be opposed to it, but the interviews did not yield this distinction.
In fact, the officials of the east expressed even greater concern with the
ranchers' property rights than was expressed by the ranchers' representatives
Finally, when discussing land use controls, a great number of government
officials are interested in the concept of Transferable Development Rights
as a possible means of solving the conflict between control and private
rights.
The third major issue discussed by the officials was "government." In
general, there is a strong, unanimous desire for local control, with oppo-
sition to any kind of state preemption. The federal government, especially
the Environmental Protection Agency and National Park Service, is looked
upon even less favorably than state officials. Those interviewed believed
that these agencies are not sensitive to local issues and problems. The
U.S. Forest Service is the only exception to this general feeling of mistrust
However, this exception could be due to the administrator himself, who
plays an active role in local government. Governmental services which are
of concern to some or all of the officials are: 1) low cost housing,
2) food stamps, and 3) increased sharing of services such as police pro-
tection and dog control. Towns with limited budgets, such as Fraser, are
especially interested in shared services. Taxes presented the one issue
that could be identified according to location. Officials from both the
east and west think their side of the County is carrying the tax load, so
they want to see the burden equalized.
The final issue articulated by the officials was concern for the
aesthetic qualities of the County. They defined the small town
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characteristies and clean atmosphere of the County as important attributes.
However, the majority of those interviewed did not believe the quality of
the environment is presently being jeopardized or would be jeopardized by
population growth. Officials generally responded that they do not want
Grand County to become "another Vail," but their primary concern seemed to
be increased job opportunities and the protection of property rights, and
not the aesthetic and environmental issues.
The government officials survey was thus able to identify, from one
perspective, the issues confronting the County. Although no clear distinc-
tions between the responses of those from the two major sections of the
County became apparent, differences between several factors within the
County did become evident. For instance, Grand Lake officials, unlike the
majority of County officials, were not concerned with establishing a year-
round economy. They have visions of Grand Lake continuing to be a resort
area for the wealthy. They believed that a stabilizing increase in winter
activities would bring in the wrong types of people, and eventually
jeopardize Grand Lake's attractiveness. A distinction which became particu-
larly evident in Fraser was between the young and the old. The older
officials do not want more tourists or development in their area. In
contrast, the younger people who make their living from the tourist industry,
would like to see it expanded. Thus, although the survey did not reveal
the conflicts between the western and eastern sectors per se, it did yield
some sociological differences that could become future points of contention.
First Public Opinion Questionnaire
Method. A sample of 54 year-round residents (3 percent of the total
population) was chosen at random from the Grand County telephone directory.
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Initially, voter registration lists were to be used on the assumption that
voters would be the people most interested in current issues before the
County. However, due to the fact that these lists did not include tele-
phone numbers, they were replaced by the less satisfactory telephone
directory. Since year-round residency data were available for Grand Lake,
Hot Sulphur and Parshall, Kremmling, Fraser, Winter Park, Tabernash, and
Granby, the survey was spatially stratified into five areas. Proportional
samples were then drawn from each section of the County directory. It was
apparent that all business either should be included or excluded from the
sample, and the decision was made to exclude them. Finally, since it was
impossible to determine how many eligible voters resided in each household,
a coin was flipped as a means of determining whether to ask for the male
or female head of the household. The questionnaire was administered at the
residence of the respondent, and a team of five interviewers covered the
County. The respondent generally took about 30-45 minutes to answer the
questionnaire.
The survey was divided into six major sections: 1) an open-ended por-
tion asking the resident to list the advantages and disadvantages of living
in Grand County, 2) 35 assumed characteristics or attributes of the County
which were to be rated on a scale from 'most strongly like1 to 'most strongly
dislike, 3) a list of possible future issues confronting the County which
were a) to be judged 'very important1 to 'not important' and b) a determina-
tion made by the citizen as to whether he wanted more, same, or less of the
activity, 4) questions related to a person's attitude regarding land use
control and County growth, 5) an open-ended question asking the respondents
to identify the three most important issues facing the County, and
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6) demographic questions. The overall purpose of the survey was to deter-
mine the attributes of the County as perceived by the residents and to
define the major issues confronting the County.
Analysis and Results. The first step in analyzing the survey was to
code the open-ended questions into as few categories as possible and make
a frequency count. For instance, the advantages of living in Grand County
were coded in the following thirteen classifications with corresponding
values.
Category Number of Responses
1.
Small, cohesive population
26
2.
Mountain living, quiet clean
21
3.
Aesthetics, wildlife
21
4.
The people, friendly
15
5.
Location
10
6.
Recreation
8
7.
Job opportunities
7
8.
Government
4
9.
Schools
4
10.
CIimate
2
11.
Ranching
2
12.
Lack of crime
1
13.
Other
4
From these data it can be concluded that the residents of Grand County
believe that the advantage of their area lies in its aesthetic, pollution-
free qualities and in its friendly, cohesive communities. Utilizing the
same methodology, the major disadvantages of living in Grand County are
the weather, high costs, and lack of services. Furthermore, seventeen
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percent of those interviewed stated that there had been too much growth
and development in the County, while fifteen percent felt there had been
too much planning (i.e., restrictions on mobile homes).
As a means of ordering and quantifying these advantages or attributes
of the County, 35 specific questions had been included in the questionnaire.
There were two statistical tests run on these data. First, means and
standard deviations were calculated for each of the 35 responses (Table 11).
In this manner, those attributes which people most like or dislike can be
readily visualized. For instance, being in the mountains, living in a
small community, and being able to see wildlife all yielded high averages.
Conversely, lack of cultural activities and having few minorities in the
County both resulted in relatively low scores.
The second analysis of these 35 questions was a factor analysis. These
questions had been designed by establishing seven broad categories, and
then writing five items pertaining to each category. These items were then
intermixed, the hypothesis being that when the survey was analyzed, these
35 questions would factor back into the seven categories. Presumably a
person would rate all the questions within a category relatively consist-
ently. However, only five clusters emerged from the analysis: 1) mountain
living, 2) diversity, 3) activities/location, 4) recreation, and 5) govern-
ment. Actually 10 factors were derived in the analysis but only five of
them were deemed significant based upon the amount of variation explained
by the factors. The individual items included in each factor were generally
those which had factor scores of 0.5 or greater. However, some variables
having a value slightly less than 0.5 were included in the factor if further
investigation established a reasonable relationship with the other factor
variables. Furthermore, factors can be combined if they are mathematically
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Table 11. Attributes of Grand County: Like/Dislike (Scale 1-9).
Variables
Mean
Std. Dev
Being in the mountains
8.654
.745
Living in a small community
8.423
.809
Diversity of population
7.192
1 .650
Close to Denver
6.808
1.721
Knowing government officials
7.423
1.138
Close to recreation areas
7.346
1.696
Diversity of jobs
6.269
2.164
Being in the mountains
8.615
.752
Historical area
6.385
1.267
Few minorities
5.692
1.668
Many public resources
6.385
2.041
Active local government
6.769
1.986
Winter recreation opportunities
7.692
1.289
Mix year-round and seasonal employment
6.346
2.190
Large open spaces
8.154
1.289
Identifying with a mountain community
7.846
1.690
Having young people in the community
6.615
1.899
Having towns spread out
6.500
2.404
Having government interested in land use
7.039
2.306
Good summer recreation
7.692
1.225
Having basic industries
7.385
1 .416
Being able to see wildlife
8.577
.643
Living in a close knit community
6.926
2.049
Having tourists in County
5.846
2.525
Federal highways in County
6.615
2.351
Having newcomers in government
5.885
2.405
Having national park nearby
7.539
1.476
Having active tourist industry
6.346
2.497
Having little development
6.346
2.497
Living in a western community
7.846
1.515
Newcomers settling in County
6.154
2.310
Being away from the city
8.385
.898
Federal and state officials in County
6.500
1.839
Limited cultural activities
4.713
2.341
Lack of jobs
3.774
1.914
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and theoretically consistent. In this analysis, two factors were combined
into one called "Government." The final five factors and their components
are listed below. The name of the factor is a construction which describes
it as a totality.
Name of Factor
Diversity
Mountain living
Location/Activities
Recreation
Government
These five factors thus became descriptors of Grand County as perceived by
the residents. They are in all cases (except limited cultural activities)
positive attributes which the planner might consider as desirable attributes
of living in Grand County and, therefore, things to be enhanced or protected.
The next section encompassed 59 questions describing possible County
issues. The respondent was asked to indicate how important or unimportant
each issue would be in the future and if he would like to see more, less,
or the same of the item in the future. The issues were grouped into the
following categories: 1) resources, 2) jobs/business, 3) community,
4) government, 5) population, 6) development, and 7) aesthetics. Due to
Variables
Diversity of population
Diversity of jobs
Mix seasonal employment
Young people
Basic industry
Small community
Being in the mountains
Western community
Being away from the city
Close to Denver
National Park
Limited cultural activities
Newcomers settling in County
Close to recreation areas
Towns spread out
Winter recreation opportunities
Active local government
Federal and state officials in County
Government interested in land use
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budgetary and time constraints, only 24 questions were analyzed in this
section. The 24 were chosen on the basis of the government officials survey
and the answers already analyzed in the questionnaire. For instance, any
questions having to do with aesthetics would be included due to the high
score of this item in the section on attributes of the County. A frequency
count yielding total percent scores was utilized for this section. Table 12
summarizes the results of this analysis. An interesting point to note is
that although people would like to see more opportunities for small busi-
nesses and more year-round jobs (70 percent and 76 percent, respectively),
they also displayed a strong concern for the environment and its preservation.
Consequently, 56 percent of those polled wanted to see more regulations to
preserve agricultural land, and 78 percent desired greater preservation of
open space. Surprisingly, only 15 percent proposed more tourist oriented
businesses.
The three questions relating to land use specifically were: 1) how
important do you feel land use planning will be in making Grand County the
kind of place you want it to be in the future, 2) will growth jeopardize
the quality of the physical environment, and 3) will growth jeopardize the
quality of the social environment? These questions were first simply
tabulated, and it was found that although 63 percent of those interviewed
said that land use planning would be very important in making Grand County
the kind of place they want it to be in the future, and 19 percent think
it will be important, only 22 percent strongly agreed and 30 percent agreed
that growth would jeopardize the quality of the physical environment. More-
S
over, only 13 percent strongly agreed and 22 percent agreed that growth
would jeopardize the quality of the social environment. Further analysis
was done with these data by cross tabulating these three questions with
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Table 12. Grand County: Future issues.
Not
Very
Want
Issue
Impt.
Impt.
Impt.
More
Same
Les;
Ski areas
17
41
41
39
46
9
Transmountain water diversion
9
30
54
24
13
54
Tourist oriented businesses
9
59
30
15
52
26
Opportunity for small businesses
4
48
46
70
24
0
Year round jobs
2
44
52
76
17
2
Low income housing
17
30
48
60
19
6
Middle income housing
9
43
41
59
26
7
High income housing
37
44
9
6
46
39
Schools
0
22
76
57
35
0
Regulations to preserve ag. land
2
44
50
56
28
7
Air/water pollution controls
0
45
55
78
15
4
Regulations for residential areas
4
33
61
61
13
19
Regulations for no. units/acre
2
33
65
67
22
4
Planning on a county-wide basis
0
48
52
57
31
6
Tourists
13
44
41
39
41
15
More populations
30
37
28
22
37
37
Expansion of existing towns
22
54
20
37
39
17
Construction of new towns
50
26
20
11
20
61
Subdivisions away from towns
20
46
30
24
31
41
Preservation of open space
0
30
65
70
19
0
Development of Three Lakes
20
41
37
26
35
31
Development on highway
17
44
37
33
20
39
Commercial development
7
57
33
35
43
17
Subdivision development
20
46
30
22
35
39
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each of the 24 future issue questions. It was hypothesized that there would
be a significant relationship between the response to land use questions and
the issue oriented questions. For instance, it was believed that those who
wanted land use controls or those who believed growth would jeopardize the
physical and/or social environments would also be the ones who might want
less development around the Three Lakes or more preservation of open space.
Questionnaires were also classified according to their location and cross-
tabulated in the same manner. Although a few dependent relationships were
found between the different variables, no consistent relationship was
established. The people who were most concerned about the quality of the
environment could not be identified according to their responses to the issue
oriented questions or their place of residence. One explanation for this
lack of correlation is that people assume if there is sufficient land use
planning, then neither the social nor the physical environment will be
degraded.
The final analysis involved coding the open-ended questions regarding
future land use issues. (Although the demographic data were summarized,
they were not utilized in this analysis.) The following categories evolved.
Issue Number of Responses
Land use/Development 31
Government sources 16
Water diversion: supply 16
Environment: protection, aesthetics, wildlife 12
Population growth 11
More jobs 9
Better government 8
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Schools
8
Taxes
4
Housing
4
Economy
4
Improved Recreation Areas
3
Transients
3
Touri sm
3
More stores, businesses
2
These data can thus be combined with other survey results to provide plan-
ning parameters. For instance, by combining this analysis with responses
pertaining to advantages and/or disadvantages of living in the County, a
planner can readily ascertain at least some of the issues that might be
addressed.
Interpretation and Use. One discrepancy which became apparent is that
the citizens, unlike the government officials, are at least as concerned
about environmental quality as they are about economic problems and job
opportunities. These differences seem quite important and affect any inter-
pretation which attempts to provide a statement of County goals and objec-
tives for the study area. These differences, therefore, were incorporated
into the subsequent task of developing land use scenarios.
The survey produced five county attribute clusters: diversity, moun-
tain living, cultural/locational, recreation, and government. By utilizing
the five clusters, a procedure was devised for 1) identifying particular
groups within a community, and 2) determining which groups will be affected
by different types of plans and/or developments.
Once the clusters were established, individual responses were analyzed
in order to determine how each person rated each attribute on a scale of
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high, medium, or low. A high score constituted any score greater than 1
standard deviation away from the mean and a low score anything less than
1 standard deviation away from the mean. Once high, medium, and low scores
were assigned to each person, an attribute 'signature' or 'profile' was
drawn. An attribute signature for one individual might look like this:
Mountain Cultural/
Diversity Living Locational Recreation Government
The importance of these signatures is that they show some of the values
about the County held by each individual. For instance, according to this
profile, the person highly values attributes of the County related to moun-
tain living or recreation while at the same time placing a low value on the
cultural/recreational characteristics. After this type of signature was
developed for each person, groupings were made of like signatures. However,
at this stage instead of using high, medium, or low, the mean scores were
translated back into the survey terminology so as to provide better
descriptors. A partial example of this group matrix is shown below.
GRAND COUNTY RESIDENT TYPOLOGIES BASED UPON FIVE CLUSTERS
Type
Diversity
Mountain
Living
Cultural/
Location
Recreation
Government
T1
Moderately
Li ke
Most Strongly
Like
Moderately
Li ke
Moderately
Like
Moderately
Like
T2
Strongly
Like
Moderately
Like
Weakly
Li ke
Moderately
Like
Moderately
Like
T3
Moderately
Like
Strongly
Like
Moderately
Like
Strongly
Like
Moderately
Li ke
Now, the question is, of what use was this information?
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Utilizing this procedure, each individual was assigned to a "values"
group and each individual could be spatially located on a map according to
his residence (Figure 9). In this way, it was possible to identify any
clustering of groups and determine who was likely to be impacted upon by any
plan or proposed development. From this analysis, it was evident that over
80 percent of the residents who strongly like or most strongly like the
attributes associated with mountain living resided in the eastern portion
of the County. Similarly, those most concerned with recreation opportunities
are also located in the eastern portion of the County. Thus, there could be
a conflict between public values and development of eastern Grand County.
The people most valuing present attributes of the County reside in areas
that may feel the greatest pressures for development.
The advantages of this type of technique are that not only were resi-
dents' values identified, but also groups having common value sets were
determined. This information as well as that obtained from County officials
and other parts of the survey was then used in the construction of a set
of realistic land use scenarios.
Population Analysis
One component of an alternative future is the population size and compo-
sition given the other components of that future. The planner generally
wants to know the population size, distribution, and composition both at the
present and projected for some future time period. This information enables
description of the current situation, description of some future situation,
and an estimate of the impact of plan alternatives on the population and the
population's potential impact on other resources. Therefore, it was neces-
sary to develop a population model suitable for a rural area like Grand
County and then apply this model to the County situation.
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Figure 9. Spatial location of resident groups.
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A population model is essentially a mechanistic device designed to
replicate the processes of population change over time, A prime determinant
of the procedure employed is the assumed causal relationships between the
population system of the region and the level of economic activity. The
model which was used for this study is based upon the assumption that regional
migration is largely determined by available employment opportunities in the
region. One of the major relationships between the population system and
the economic system is illustrated in Figure 10. For any point in time there
is a relationship which specifies that the resident population at that point
is composed of a group which is not in the labor force (school children,
retired, others not seeking work), while the remainder of the resident popu-
lation is included and is available for employment. Of the group available
for employment, some are unemployed and the remainder comprise the total
regional employment for that time period. The purpose of the following sec-
tion is to describe a model framework which includes the assumed causal
relationships for the system and the process by which these changes occur
through time. The current situation and use of population data are described.
Resident
Population
Not In
Labor
Force
Labor
Force
Employed
Figure 10. The population-employment relationship.
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Inflow-Outflow Analysis
As illustrated in Figure 11, the population of an area open to migra-
tion may change as a result of births entering the system, deaths leaving
the system, in-migrants of the system, or out-migrants from the system.
This process can be described by the inflow-outflow technique outlined by
Drake, et a]_. (1971) and Isard (1960). The total population of an area at
some future time may be calculated as the total population in the previous
period, plus the births which have occurred in the intervening period,
minus the deaths, plus the net migration between periods. In order to use
this type of analysis for projection purposes, some estimate of the in- and
out-migration (or net migration) is necessary.
The inflow-outflow analysis may be expanded to yield estimates of indi-
vidual age and sex components of the population. In its expanded form, the
technique is generally known as a cohort-survival analysis (Keyfitz and
Flieger, 1971).
Figure 11. Inflow-outflow analysis.
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A Cohort-Survival Model
A cohort-survival model may be viewed in much the same manner as the
inflow-outflow model illustrated in Figure 11. Rather than a total popula-
tion, the cohort-survival model is designed to monitor population change by
age and sex. The analysis begins with a base year population separated into
age and sex groups. Although any reasonable age grouping may be used, the
most common practice considers five year age intervals (for example, age
group 1 is age 0-4 years, group 2 is 5-9 years, group 3 is 10-14 years).
Births are calculated as a function of the female population in child
bearing age groups and the birth rate for each female group. Deaths may be
calculated as a function of the total population of each age, sex group
and the death rate for that particular group. The process of aging is also
included in the cohort-survival model. If each component of the original
population survives, in a sense the group has already aged. However, since
the size of each age group has changed through time, some calculations are
necessary to determine the size of each new component.
The cohort-survival technique yields excellent results if there is no
significant migration expected to occur into or out of the area. This no-
migration assumption is clearly not applicable to most small areas. A
basic limitation of the cohort-survival model for projecting population is
that there is no mechanism within the model structure itself which relates
the level or composition of migrants to the expected or projected economic
activity. The usual practice when using this type of analysis is to extrapo-
late age and sex specific migration rates from a previous time into the
future. For example, a net migration rate may be calculated from a previous
time period and applied to a base year population to arrive at some future
migration estimate.
-------
To some extent, this approach does relate projected migration to
changes in the area's economic activity. However, it implicitly assumes
that changes in the level and structure of economic activity in a previous
time period are similar to the economic changes expected in the projected
period. Thus the problem of projecting migration is central to the problem
of population projection for most areas. This problem was solved by setting
the estimated total population consistent with the projected total employ-
ment and the projected unemployment. It is assumed that in- and out-
migrants move on the very last day of the time period, then the total popu-
lation estimate is completely consistent with the projected employment and
unemployment. Applying this condition, the projected labor supply is now
exactly equal to the projected labor demand for the area. Utilizing this
procedure, approximations can be made of the changes that occur in a
regional population system as a result of natural increases and decreases,
and the migration which occurs as a result of the interaction between the
natural population forces and changes in the levels of economic activity
in the region.
The Population Model--Overview and Summary
As illustrated in Figure 12, the populatiorr-iuorfel is essentially an
accounting framework which monitors and projects: (.1) births, (2) deaths,
(3) net non-employment related migration, and (4) net employment-related
migration. As illustrated, births, which enter a population system, are
determined by birth rates and the population to which-these rates are applied.
Similarly, deaths, which leave the system, are determined by death rates
and the population to which these rates are applied. Non-employment related
migration may add to or remove population from the system. In the framework
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Retiremerit
Related
Migration
0
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developed, this component of net migration is exogenous and its quantity is
not determined by a rate application. Employment related migration may also
add to or remove population from the system. The number of employment-
related migrants is determined by employment opportunities and by the number
of workers available from the resident population. Thus, given some estimate
of the level of economic activity for an area for some future time period,
the model can be used to generate a population forecast for the area under
study.
Data Sources
All basic data for the population model were,obtained from currently
available federal or state sources. The model requires eight separate data
inputs. These are:
(1) base year population by age and sex,
(2) birth rates which are age-specific by mother's age, proportion
of births which are male,
(3) age and sex specific death rates,
(4) age and sex specific labor force participation rates,
(5) annual retirement-related migration,
(6) projected unemployment rate,
(7) age and sex distribution for employment-related migrants, and
(8) projected total regional employment.
A brief description of each, along with the corresponding data sources
is provided below.
Data Set 1 - 1970 population by age and sex was taken from the 1970
Census uf Population.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1970a).
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Data Set 2 - Age-specific birth rates for mothers were estimated from
1970 County births and 1970 age-specific birth rates for
the state. These base year rates were then adjusted for
each time period until convergence with the Census Bureau.
Series E birth rate projections were achieved in 1990.
Male births were assumed to be 51 percent of the total.
Sources: County and state births - Colorado Department of Health
(1971).
Series E projections - U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Data Set 3 - Base year death rates were estimated from 1970 County
deaths and 1970 death rates for the state. These rates
were also converged with the Series E 1990 Census Bureau
projections.
Sources: County and state births - Colorado Department of Health
(1971).
Series E projections - U.S. Bureau of the Census (1972).
Data Set 4 - 1970 labor force participation rates were taken from 1970
Census. Adjustments through 1980 were based upon Department
of Labor national estimates for 1980.
Sources: County rates - U.S. Bureau of the Census (1970b).
National projections - Cooper and Johnston (1965).
Data Set 5 - Retirement-related migration was based upon 1960-1970 net
migration estimates for age groups 55 and over.
Source: Estimates were based upon the results of census survival
migration analysis (forward procedure) for 1960-1970
for County.
Data Set 6 - Average annual unemployment for 1970-1973 was taken from
state estimates. Full employment (4.5 percent unemployment)
was assumed for all projections.
Source: Colorado Division of Employment (1974).
Data Set 7 - Migrant distribution was based upon net migration estimates
by age and sex for Colorado for period 1960-1970.
Source: Monarch! and Rahe (1974).
Data Set 8 - Total projected employment for each time period was estimated
on the !->asis of alternative futures and the employment model.
Source: Employment model
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Situation Description
The 1970 Census recorded a total population of 4,107 for Grand County,
an increase of 21 percent over the 1960 estimate of 3,395. The 1970 total
was, however, only about 4 percent greater than the 1950 population of
3,963. Declining employment opportunities between 1950 and 1960 apparently
contributed greatly to this decline. Substantial net out-migration occurred
between 1950 and 1960 (net out-migration of 1,180), while some net in-
migration took place between 1960 and 1970 (net in-migration of 174). With
an expanding economic base for the area, this in-migration trend can be
expected to increase sharply. Population size and composition for 1970 and
estimated 1975 totals are shown in Tables 13 and 14.
Table 13. Grand County population - 1970 Census
Age
Male
Female
0 - 4
137
180
5 - 9
201
156
10 - 14
237
204
15 - 19
191
221
20 - 24
121
145
25 - 29
153
130
30 - 34
99
96
35 - 39
132
158
40 - 44
181
136
45 - 49
118
134
50 - 54
132
122
55 - 59
102
95
60 - 64
120
113
65 - 69
76
61
70 Over
77
79
Total
2,077
2,030
Total
4,107
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Table 14- Grand County population - 1975 estimated
Age
Male
Female
0 - 4
230
240
5 - 9
230
232
10 - 14
295
268
15 - 19
313
301
20 - 24
339
352
25 - 29
283
328
30 - 34
251
262
35 - 39
220
220
40 - 44
213
206
45 - 49
189
182
50 - 54
167
157
55 - 59
126
128
60 - 64
118
119
65 - 69
87
83
70 Over
101
110
Total
3,161
3,186
Total
6,347
Interpretation and Use
The estimated Grand County population for 1975 has an unusually low
number of dependents. That is, there are relatively few people dependent
(those less than 15 years and those older than 65 years) upon the productive
age (15-64 years) population. For the mountain states the ratio is about
60 dependents for each one hundred non-dependents, for the nation the ratio
is about 62 to 100, and for Grand County the ratio is only 42 to 100. From
these data it appears that there are many unmarried workers in Grand County.
One could also expect that a substantial portion of the population is quite
mobile and would move if economic conditions deteriorate.
These population dat>i were useful in understanding the current situation
in Grand County and in deriving the alternative futures. Projections of them
were the basis for the population estimates in the alternative futures.
Additionally, the impact of alternatives on infrastructure needs can be
estimated from projections of the population.
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Economic Analysis
The economic system existing in an area and its change over time is of
concern in the planning process. Planners, politicians, and citizens are
all interested in economic well-being and how that well-being is affected
by land use and other plans. For Grand County it was necessary to develop
a region specific economic model to be used in current situation description
and projection of future economic activity. The output of the model was
useful both in deriving alternative futures and in assessing the impact of
any future on the area's economy.
The most frequently used form of regional employment projection model
is export base analysis. Several excellent summaries of the approach are
available including Isard (1960), Pfouts, ed. (1960), Tiebout (1962), Land
(1966), and Hirsch (1973). Isard (pp. 199-205 and 327-43), Tiebout
(Chapter 6), and Hirsch (Chapter 8) have discussed forecasting problems
associated with this type of analysis.
Richardson (1969) has summarized the export base theory as:
Y = (E - M) + X
E = eY
M = mY
X = Xi (exogenous)
where
Y is regional income
E is that part of the regional income spent locally
M is imported income
X is income for exports
e and m are the marginal propensities to spend locally
and to import respectively.
By substitution
Y = eY - mY + X
Yi = X or Y = 1
1-e+m y 1-e+m
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Regional income is therefore some multiple of exports and the ratio of total
income to export income (Y/X) is the multiplier. Most of the applications
of this framework have used employment rather than income.
Critics of this procedure have frequently cited a lack of theory and
the instability of the parameters estimated from past data. Among the
numerous critics, Lewis (1972) has presented perhaps the strongest case for
discarding the approach. Williamson (1975), however, has recently suggested
that empirical verification of the theory is often overlooked by its critics
and has presented several examples of past research which indicate that the
predictive power of the technique is quite good.
Figure 13 summarizes the operation of the regional employment model.
As illustrated, the levels for basic industry employment, the export compo-
nent of business-serving employment, and the export component of population-
serving employment are determined by external market demands. The export
oriented employment in basic industries and in population-serving industries
then determines the levels for parts of the locally oriented business-
serving employment. The population levels associated with this employment
then determine a locally oriented population-serving employment which in
turn feeds back into the population system and the local business-serving
employment until some equilibrium level is achieved. The sum of all the
various employment levels then becomes the total required employment which
is used to drive the population model through time.
Situation Description
Census employment estimates for Grand County for 1975 are displayed
in Table 15. These employment totals identify the number of employees by
industrial sector and represent employment by place of residence rather than
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External
Market
Demands
Figure 13. Employment model-summary.
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Table 15. Grand County employment by industry - 1970 Census.
Estimated
Non-local
Industry
Employment
Employment
Agriculture
185
185
Mining
85
85
Furniture, lumber, wood products
102
102
Metal industries
-
-
Machinery, ex. electrical
-
-
Electrical machinery
-
-
Transportation equipment
-
-
Other durable goods
-
-
Food and kindred products
-
-
Textiles and textile products
-
-
Chemical and allied products
-
-
Other non-durable goods
-
-
Federal government
43
43
Construction
177
59
Printing and publishing
6
-
Transportation
57
-
Communications
40
12
Utilities and sanitary services
47
14
Wholesale trade
12
-
Finance, insurance, real estate
22
-
Business and repair services
34
-
Legal and misc. professional services
36
-
Food, bakery, dairy stores
12
-
Eating and drinking places
227
180
General merchandising retailing
34
-
Motor vehicles and service stations
46
12
Other retail trade
153
67
Households and personal services
249
177
Entertainment and recreation services
71
58
Hospitals and health services
45
-
All education
70
-
Welfare, religious, non-profit
22
-
Public administration, ex. federal
58
-
Total
1,834
994
place of work. In addition, Table 15 also shows the estimated non-local
or export employment by sector. The level of export employment for each
sector was estimated based upon the procedures outlined above. Of the 1,834
employees in the County, 54 percent are estimated to be engaged in export
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oriented employment. The most striking feature of the 1970 data is the
almost complete absence of manufacturing activity and the high degree of
export activity in the service sectors.
Interpretation and Use
The employment structure for Grand County shows the dominant economic
activities in the area: Agriculture, tourism, timbering, and personal
services are the export industries most responsible for economic health of
the area. A rapid decline in any of these industries could cause economic
disruption in the area.
Employment information was utilized in describing the current situation,
estimating possibilities for economic growth or contraction, and deriving
alternative futures. Employment estimates are a key element of the alterna-
tive futures and are related to projecting infrastructure needs.
Deriving Scenarios
Importance
A key element in the derivation of alternative futures was the con-
struction of a set of broad scenarios, or future histories, for the study
area. These scenarios were the general structure on which the alternative
futures were built.
Scenarios can range, in structure, from very restrictive and conserva-
tive views of change to unrestricted growth or decline. However, if sce-
narios are to be viable in the construction of alternative futures relevant
for planning, the more re^listic they are, the better. In other words,
they should be achievable within resource, institutional, and social capa-
bilities of an area. It does little service to decision makers to produce
unattainable scenarios which can be dismissed without-consideration.
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Process
The process utilized to construct the set of scenarios for the study
area was based upon the extensive inventories of the environmental resources,
economic situation, population structure and behavior, public desires, and
growth forces which have been described earlier. Various alternatives
were considered based upon known growth forces and public desires. These
were then checked against the other data to insure that they were possible.
The following five scenarios were then written to be reflective of the
possible futures which eastern Grand County might experience, given different
levels of governmental intervention and different economic thrusts.
SCENARIO I
It is proposed in this scenario that the qualities inherent in "mountain
living" have the highest priority for residents of Grand County. Therefore,
emphasis in planning will be placed on preservation of the environment. The
goal will be to preserve to the greatest degree possible, wildlife, open
space and the aesthetics of the area. This scenario will require strong
governmental controls with development and economic opportunities being
sacrificed.
Developments which occur because of population growth will primarily be con-
centrated in existing communities. New developments will be controlled so
that impacts on scenery, wildlife, and unique features will be minimized.
Roadless areas will remain roadless. Water and air pollution control will
be of prime concern to government agencies. Agricultural land will be main-
tained for agriculture because of its open space characteristics. Develop-
ments which rapidly expand population or change the basic, present character
of the area will be discouraged.
SCENARIO II
Due to increased demand for recreational opportunities, Grand County will
develop its tourist industry, but only to the extent that the development
is compatible with preservation values. Thus, the increased recreation
activities will only take place in areas that will not cause stress to the
environment and aesthetic characteristics of the area. The government will
have to exercise strong controls in order to achieve these goals.
This scenario calls for dual emphasis on tourism and preservation. To
accomplish this, tourist facilities and developments should not infringe
upon the prime scenic, wildlife and wilderness (roadless) areas of the
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County. Tourism and preservation should complement each other. Tourist
facilities will be designed primarily for transients and located in areas
already having some tourist development—primarily highway corridors, Three
Lakes area, and existing communities. Open space will not be intruded upon
if the intrusion is visually degrading. Location of tourist facilities
should take advantage of scenic views, proximity to recreation facilities
and activities, and clustering opportunities. Full year recreation oppor-
tunities would be encouraged to even out employment opportunities. The only
industry encouraged under this scenario is light and clean. Its location
will not infringe upon tourist or preservation opportunities.
SCENARIO III
As a result of the expanding tourist industry in the state, Grand County will
develop its tourist industry as much as possible in order to gain part of
this market. Consequently, all areas will be developed in light of their
economic potential as tourist "attractors" and preservation and aesthetics
will only be considered to the extent that they can make Grand County more
appealing to tourists. Government control will only be moderate and second
home builders (middle to high income) will be encouraged.
Under this scenario emphasis is given to facilities and developments which
encourage people to visit Grand County for a day or a month. Ski area
expansion and new areas, condominium development, second homes, trails,
snowmobile areas, campgrounds, boating areas, and all kinds of facilities
will be encouraged. Diversity within and between seasons is emphasized in
order to stabilize the tourist based economy. Industry is okay as long as
it does not infringe upon tourism opportunities—same location, scenically,
etc. Low income housing for seasonal workers is needed. Highways will be
improved and new roads cut into new areas. Maintenance of air and water
quality plus some open space is important so that natural tourist attractors
are not destroyed. However, most areas near to transportation corridors
will be developed. The Three Lakes will be a high density, activity
oriented area.
SCENARIO IV
One of the primary goals of Grand County residents is to expand their economy
and stabilize the job market. Therefore, government officials will do all
they possibly can to encourage both extractive and light industries into the
area. In order to attract such industries, the policy of the government
will be one of "laissez faire," with only minimum amount of control as
necessitated by state and national regulations. The government will also
attempt to expand its services and concentrate on the availability of low
income housing for the influx of new residents.
Traditional urban development, except for heavy manufacturing, is visualized
under this scenario. Natural amenities are of low value. Economic geology,
timbering, and some processing are the primary activities. Tourism is still
encouraged, particularly around the Three Lakes and the Winter Park area.
Granby, Hot Sulphur Springs, and Kremmling will become "mini" industrial
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centers. Primary homes will be needed for workers. New businesses will
come into the towns. Mills and refineries must be located. Roads must be
improved or built, water systems expanded, and energy systems developed.
People moving between Denver and the coal producing areas of Routt and
Jackson counties will increase. Services to meet their travel needs must
be located. Health, safety, and economic constraints provide the only
restrictions on land use.
SCENARIO V
Because of the need to develop a stronger economic base for the region, and
because of the "overflow" of demands on the County which will result from
energy development in neighboring Routt County, the government will attempt
to increase both their tourist and industrial base. This plan will involve
fairly strong governmental controls in order to preserve the tourist quali-
ties of the area. The government will attempt to provide for both the
increased lower income and secondary housing demand, but only in such a
way that the aesthetic qualities of the areas will not be lost.
Without a doubt, this scenario is the most difficult for planning. It calls
for growth in two sectors which are often conflicting. It calls for a
balanced economic base rather than one sector dependency. Moderate develop-
ment of ski facilities and other winter sports opportunities is visualized.
Controlled growth of the summer recreation opportunities, particularly in the
Three Lakes and Fraser River areas, is necessary. Both transient and second
home type developments are warranted as long as they don't destroy the
tourist/scenic environment. Industry is also encouraged but not to the
extent that it degrades most tourist opportunities. Therefore, air and
water pollution control are important. Open space, scenic, and transporta-
tion controls are also important. The interaction between people on highway
corridors and mines is of consideration, for instance.
Use
The scenarios, ranging from maintenance of the current environment with
a low emphasis on growth to an aggressive emphasis on industrialization and
growth, formed the basic guidance for development of alternative futures
and for compositing of environmental resource factors into suitability maps.
The scenarios provide an indication of the kinds of employment opportunities,
land needs, governmental Dolicies, and other elements of interest in fore-
casting the future. They also provide an indication of alternative goals
which might be pursued.
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The next steps in the process were to translate the scenarios into
specific, quantitative alternative futures and to develop resource stability
maps to fit each scenario. These steps are discussed in the next few
sections of this report.
Alternative Futures
The five scenarios identified for the study area represent general
directions and changing emphasis for the economic base of the area. In
order to change these into alternative futures and to estimate the popula-
tion and employment impacts of these changes, each of the five scenarios
was associated with a different employment pattern for the area. As out-
lined earlier, the level of export, or non-local employment, is used as the
primary driving force for the population and employment models. Given
various employment patterns for each scenario, the models were then used to
estimate the total population and employment levels. The assumptions and
procedures which were used to develop the employment patterns for each
future are described below.
Data Input Requirements
The primary data inputs for the employment component of the model
include base year total employment and base year estimates of local and non-
local employment. As is the case with the population component, all data
bases were developed at the County level and were drawn from currently
available federal or state sources. The model required six separate data
inputs. These were:
(1) industry classification scheme,
(2) base year values for County employment by industry,
(3) base year values for national employment by industry,
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(4) base year estimates for CBS values, CPS values, DBS values
and DPS values,
(5) base year values for local and non-local employment by
industry, and
(6) projected levels for non-local employment for each industry.
A brief description of each, along with the corresponding data source
is given below.
Data Set 1 - Industries were defined by Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation and were assigned to basic, business-serving,
or population-serving group.
Source: All assignments were judgmental
Data Sets 2
and 3 - 1970 County and national employment by industry was by
place of residence.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1970b) and U.S. Bureau of
the Census (1971).
Data Set 4 - These coefficients were derived from the employment data
above. The population-employment ratio (b^) used for
each time period was the actual ratio calculated from the
model results of the preceding time period.
Source: Data Sets 2 and 3.
Data Set 5 - 1970 export and local employment estimates were calculated
based upon the coefficients from Data Set 4.
Source: Data Set 4.
Data Set 6 - Projected growth in export employment was based upon
assumed average annual rate of growth for export employ-
ment developed on the basis of alternative futures.
Source: All growth rates were judgmental and were derived from
scenarios.
Given these data inputs and sources of data, each scenario had an
inherent set of assumptions which directed its quantification and thus change
into an alternative future. The projections for all scenarios from the 1970
base data are given below along with projections for 1975 to 1990. The
product of this quantification and projection process is a set of alternative
futures.
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Assumptions
The estimated employment patterns for all scenarios for 1970-75 were
identical. The average annual rate of change for all export employment
(with the exception of agriculture) was estimated to be 12 percent (i.e.,
12 percent increase per year). The level for agricultural employment
was assumed to remain constant at the 1970 level. Trade patterns were
assumed to remain constant over this period also.
Scenario 1: Preservation/Tourism. Under the assumptions of this
scenario, the study area would continue to develop its tourist-oriented
industries but only to the extent that the development is compatible with
the protection of the surrounding environment. As a result of this pro-
tective orientation, growth in the export employment levels would be con-
siderably slower than under a "business as usual" approach. While total
employment would continue to increase, the rate of change would be much
lower than that experienced during the early 1970's. Agricultural employ-
ment would decline at an average annual rate of 1 percent while mining and
lumber and wood products employment would remain stable at 1975 levels.
All other export employment would increase at a rate of 3 percent per year.
Relative trading patterns would remain constant at the base year levels.
Scenario 2: Extractive and Light Industry—High Development. The
assumptions of this scenario dictate an expanding economic base for the
study area. Traditional urban type development, except for heavy manu-
facturing, would be encouraged along with more intensive development of the
extractive industries. Z1 "year-round" economy which is not heavily depend-
ent upon services imported from outside the area is visualized for this
scenario. Agricultural employment is expected to decline by 1 percent per
year while mining and forestry related activities will increase at an
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average annual rate of 5 percent per year. Industries which are presently
export oriented will continue to grow at 3 percent per year. Several light
industrial operations are expected to locate in the area between 1976 and
1980 and these can be expected to expand somewhat over time. In addition,
those business-serving and population-serving industries which are presently
under-represented in the area are expected to expand to a point of self-
sufficiency by 1980.
Scenario 3: Tourism--Hiqh Development. The principal assumption of
this scenario involves the increased development of tourist recreation
related activities in the study area. For this alternative, agricultural
employment is projected to decline at an average annual rate of 1 percent
with mining and forestry related activities remaining constant at 1975
levels. Those industries which are presently export-oriented are, for the
most part, related to the tourist-recreation market and are expected to
grow at a rate of 5 percent per year. No new light industry is projected
for this scenario and trading patterns are held constant at base year levels.
Scenario 4: Preservation. For this scenario, emphasis will be placed
upon the natural environment. The goal will be to maintain and enhance,
where possible, wildlife, open space and the aesthetic qualities of the area.
Developments which rapidly expand population or change the present character
of the region will be discouraged. Although agricultural land would be
maintained under the assumptions of this scenario, agricultural employment
would continue to decline at 1 percent per year. Mining and forest product
industries which are already established would continue in operation; however,
no significant employment growth would occur in these industries. All other
export industries would increase at an average annual rate of 2 percent per
year. No new industries are expected under this scenario. Total employment
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would continue to increase under these assumptions, but at a rate far below
that of recent years.
Scenario 5: Tourism/Industry—Moderate Development. This scenario
emphasizes the development of both the tourist and light industry potentials
of the area. The tourist-recreation based activities would be encouraged,
and at the same time, some light industry would be encouraged to expand and
stabilize the economic base. Under the assumptions of this scenario,
agricultural employment would decline at 1 percent per year, mining and
forestry related activities would increase at 3 percent per year, while all
other export employment would grow at 4 percent per year. Several light
industrial operations are projected to locate in the area between 1976 and
1980; however, future growth for these industries is expected to be minimal.
In addition, those business-serving and population-serving industries which
are presently under-represented in the area are expected to reach self-
sufficiency by 1990.
The Futures
FUTURE 1: PRESERVATION/TOURISM
Grand County will continue to develop its tourist industry, but only to the
extent that the development is compatible with protecting the environment.
Tourist facilities will not be allowed to harm the best scenic, wildlife
and backcountry areas of the County. Developments will mostly be for
transients and located in areas already having tourist development like
along highway corridors, the Three Lakes area and existing communities.
Year-round recreation opportunities would be encouraged in order to
stabilize the job market. Local government will have to exercise strong
controls in order to accomplish goals.
With this future, by 1990 there would be 1,016 new jobs in the County. But
not much real economic growth would happen in the County. The population
would increase by about 500 residents by 1980 and by another 1,500 by 1990.
The land needed for these developments would be less than 1 percent of the
total available, with about 188 acres needed in Grand Lake, 268 in Granby,
35 in Fraser, 145 in Hot Sulphur Springs, and 163 in Kremmling.
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FUTURE 2: EXTRACTIVE AND LIGHT INDUSTRY—HIGH DEVELOPMENT
In order to stablize the economy, local government officials will do all
they possibly can to encourage both extractive (i.e., mining, lumber) and
light industries in the County. There will be little government control
except that necessitated by state and national regulations. Natural
amenities will be protected, but not at the expense of industry. Tourism
will still be encouraged, particularly around the Three Lakes and Winter
Park areas.
This future indicates that the economy will be greatly accelerated by an
additional 4,500 jobs by 1990. The total population for the County will
reach 15,400 by 1990, an increase from 1975 of 9,100 residents. The land
for this development would be about 795 acres in Grand Lake, 1,279 in Granby,
190 in Fraser, 614 in Hot Sulphur Springs, and 810 in Kreirmling.
FUTURE 3. TOURISM—HIGH DEVELOPMENT
Areas of the County are to be developed giving greatest consideration to
their economic potential as tourist "attractors." The natural environment
will be maintained to the extent that it makes Grand County more appealing
to tourists. Local government control will be moderate. Second home
developments (middle to high income) will be encouraged, campgrounds and
boating areas will also be developed. Tourists will be encouraged to visit
Grand County for a day or a month. The Three Lakes area will be developed
as a high density, activity oriented area.
If this future is pursued, an additional 2,016 jobs would be created by
1990. The population of the County will increase by 1,000 residents by
1980 and 4,100 by 1990. These people and their developments would need
about 544 acres in Granby, 407 in Grand Lake, 59 in Fraser, 347 in Hot
Sulphur Springs, and 307 in Kremmling.
FUTURE 4: PRESERVATION
Emphasis in planning will be placed on the natural environment. The goal
is to maintain and enhance, where possible,to the greatest degree possible,
wildlife, open space, and aesthetic qualities of the County. Developments
which rapidly expand population or change the present character of the area
will be discouraged. Agricultural land would be maintained for agriculture
and open space. Strong local governmental controls are necessary to reach
this future, with development and economic opportunities being sacrificed
to maintain the natural environment.
The results of such a policy would be slow growth of the County. In 1990
there would be about 600 wore jobs than there are today. The total popula-
tion would increase from 6,347 in 1975 to 6,646 in 1980 and 7,586 in 1990.
The land needs for development would be 103 acres in Grand Lake, 144 in
Granby, 13 in Fraser, 98 in Hot Sulphur Springs, and 68 in Kremmling.
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FUTURE 5: TOURISM/INDUSTRY—MODERATE DEVELOPMENT
This future emphasizes both the County's tourist and industrial bases.
Fairly strong local governmental controls would be needed to preserve the
tourist qualities of the area while still providing for industrial opportu-
nities. Therefore, air and water pollution, open space, scenic and
transportation controls would all be important. This future would be dif-
ficult to reach because it calls for growth in sectors which are often
conflicting. Moderate development of ski facilities and other winter sports
would be encouraged. There would be controlled growth of summer recreation
opportunities, particularly in the Three Lakes and Fraser River areas.
With this future, total employment in the County would reach 6,875 by 1990,
an increase from 1975 of 3,926 jobs. In 1990, the County population would
have increased by 7,923. The acreage needed for these people and develop-
ments would be 803 in Grand Lake, 1,106 in Granby, 140 in Fraser, 601 in
Hot Sulphur Springs, and 660 in Kremmling.
Estimating Impacts of Futures
The process as described earlier calls for the estimation of impacts
which would occur if an alternative future was realized. Impacts need to
be estimated so that those persons charged with selecting a desired future
know the consequences of their decision.
For the eastern Grand County study area, impacts of each alternative
future were established for four components of the total environment:
demographic, economic, infrastructure, and environmental. Following is a
discussion of the process utilized and the impacts.
Resource Weighting and Compositing
Weighting and compositing the individual resource data into a single
map was necessary for estimating impacts on the environmental resource
sector. The product of this process is often called a land suitability
composite, since it identifies parcels of land that are the most suitable
for specific uses given a set of assumptions and constraints.
One problem that must be dealt with is the relative importance of the
individual resource factors. Often one or two resource factors are
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considered to be more important than the others. However, one must be able
to demonstrate that he is neither injecting his own biases nor being arbi-
trary in the weighting scheme proposed. Having a statement of goals and
objectives for the planning region, on which to base resource weighting,
permits objective weighting.
In this project, the five scenario descriptions provided the goals and
objectives that were needed. Through careful study of the scenario descrip-
tions, concurrence on what resource weights were implied by each scenario
was reached by the resource specialists.
This exercise reflected the interdisciplinary nature of the resource
phase of this project. It was obvious that each specialist valued his
resource highly, and desired to have it play a major role in all the
scenarios. However, by having the group examine the weighting proposed by
each specialist, the decision-making logic used by each was made explicit.
Biases for or against particular resource factors were thereby exposed and
corrected.
The product of the interaction was a scenario-specific resource weight
matrix. Of the six resource factors listed, it was later decided that the
soils and hydrologic information would not be included in the general com-
positing process. The highly detailed and site specific data on soil would
have been blurred in the compositing process. Additionally, the key hydro-
logic information was of much less detail than the other resource data.
Therefore, it was decided that soils and hydrologic information would be
utilized during the land allocation phase to help select the best (least-
cost) site for a particular land use from the possible sites as delineated
by the resource composite maps.
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A one-to-five resource weighting scheme was chosen. A weight of five
implied that a resource was a major constraint on land development. As a
resource weight decreased to four and then three, larger areas of develop-
able land occurred on the land suitability maps. An example would be the
rating that a deer migration route would receive under different resource
weights for different scenarios. A weight of five was set for wildlife in
Scenario I, and land crossed by migration route was classed as prohibitive
to development. The prohibitive category implied that unacceptable resource
damage was likely to occur if development took place. In Scenario II, a
weight of four was set, and in this case the land crossed by a migration
route was classed as restrictive to development. The restrictive category
implied that while development should be placed elsewhere if possible,
limited development was feasible if there was not another viable alternative
tract of land. For Scenario III and a weight of three, the migration route
was classed as allowed. This weight implied that the wildlife resource was
not important enough to impede development where the migration route was
not vital to the wildlife population.
A weight of two implied that the resource was important enough to be
included in the compositing process, but only on the basis of public health
and safety. The geologic hazard was an example of this category in Scenario
IV. Geologic features such as rockfall areas must be considered even in
the high development scenario insofar as the hazards are a threat to human
health and safety.
Finally, a weight of one denoted that a resource was so unimportant,
on a relative basis, that it was not even included in the composite process.
As examples, wildlife and visual vulnerability received a weight of one in
the high development Scenario IV, and were therefore not even considered
as limiting factors.
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It should be made clear that the resource weights used in this project
are not absolutes. If different goals were expressed in the scenarios, it
is likely that different resource weights should be applied. The flexibiity
of this procedure is one of its greatest strengths', since it is the weighting
process rather than the actual weights that is important. The ability to
change weighting schemes to reflect different locations, policies, and
public preferences is vital if the procedure is to be broadly applied as an
analytical tool.
Once the resource weighting process was completed, resource maps deline-
ating allowed, restrictive, and prohibitive areas were constructed for each
scenario. During the compositing phase, for each scenario, the individual
resource maps were overlaid to produce a composite land suitability map.
Since there were five scenarios, seven quads and usually four resource maps
for each scenario, a total of 126 resource maps was overlaid to produce
35 scenario composite maps.
The compositing process was based on a technique made popular by Ian
McHarg (1969). McHarg developed an overlay process using shades of gray.
His composite maps displayed light and dark areas, with the dark areas
usually denoting areas that had high hazards to development. This process
was modified to retain larger amounts of information in the composites,
and to allow differential weighting of individual resources, as noted above.
Rather than shades of gray, a three-level suitability index, allowed,
restrictive, and prohibitive was employed. In utilizing these categories
it is important to note t>at many inherent limitations can be overcome if
costly engineering techniques are employed. However, the process was based
on natural limitations and assumed that developers would use the usual
engineering and building practices employed in the area.
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The process of producing an individual composite entails many steps
and considerable cartographic expertise. A composite map is initially
nothing more than a simple base map. It only becomes a true composite
when two or more resources have been transferred onto it. The first step
is to remove from the composite (base map) all lands classed as prohibitive
on any resource map--these lands were outlined and colored red. The next
step is to go back through each of the resource maps again, drawing lines
on the composite and labeling areas either allowed or restrictive. Allowed
areas were allowed for all resources, while restrictive areas were indexed
with a letter to specify which resources were limiting. For examples, Rwvx
means that a parcel is allowed for geology, but is restrictive for wildlife,
vegetation, and visual vulnerability.
When all four resource factors had been composited, a final comparison
(overlay) was then made with the slope and wildfire maps. Any allowed or
restrictive areas that had slopes in excess of 30 percent were classed as
prohibitive, reflecting current County building codes. Similarly, the com-
parison process was carried out to rate as restrictive any areas with wild-
fire potential.
Since the completed composites were regarded as the available supply
of land for development under each scenario, the next step was to remove all
land that was already developed. By overlaying the present land use maps
these areas were netted out. The remaining areas of allowed and restrictive
land were then measured utilizing a dot grid counting technique. The final
product was a tally of hectares of allowed and restrictive land for each of
the thirty-five composite maps. The hectares tallied became allocation con-
straints in the partitioning model described in a following section.
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Generating Resource Needs
Human activities are distributed over the regional landscape in patterns
and arrangements that result neither from arbitrariness nor chance. They
result from the interdependences that give form to economic and social space.
These spatial patterns change with shifts in the structure of demand and pro-
duction, in the level of technology, and with changes in a region's political
and social organization. The economic and social development of a region is
reflected in its patterns of settlement, its systems of flows and exchanges
of commodities, money, information and resources, its patterns of commuting
and migration, and its distribution of areas of urban influence (Friedmann
and Alonso, 1964).
Public policy is an expression of the various goals and objectives
relating in general to economic and social activities within a region. Public
policy has thus become concerned with the manner and pace of development in
subregional areas. Accordingly, space and distance are increasingly con-
sidered explicitly in the determination of these policies. Thus, the means
for ascertaining the:most suitable public policy is concerned with requisite
information about the spatial attributes of the region and its subregions.
In order to analyze various aspects of alternative futures, information
regarding the spatial arrangement of populations, activities and facilities
is necessary. Once the location of activities associated with a future have
been estimated, the interactions between human and natural environments can
be examined in an impact analysis mode. Similarly, the state of the commu-
nity system can be subjected to evaluation by normative criteria.
As a part of the study process, a mathematical process was designed to
decompose the estimates of total growth for the study region. This parti-
tioning enabled the examination of location specific impacts, including
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those associated with natural resources and infrastructural facilities.
Within the carrying capacity system, the allocation subsystems function as
linkages between the various resource models and the set of perturbations
which initiate a set of impacts. Figure 14 provides a graphic illustration
of this relationship.
Figure 14. Position of spatial allocation in the planning process.
The analysis of interactions between components of the community system
provides the opportunity to estimate future arrangements in space. Figure 15
illustrates a simplified community structure and its component interactions.
From information concerning current and historical levels of interaction,
estimates can be made regarding the probable future arrangement of these
components as a result of change in population or economic activity.
The central focus of the allocation model rests on the relationship
between'employment and population. The model is designed to allocate activi-
ties associated with both resident and nonresident populations. This attri-
bute stems from characteristics common to many rural mountain areas, including
Grand County, Colorado. Local growth forces may be the result of normal
community expansion and additionally as a response to specialized demand for
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C
economic
activity
Mnfrastructura
attributes
SYSTEM
COMPONENTS
{NATURAL
RESOURCE
BASE
DISTRIBUTION
AND
INTERACTION
Figure 15. A community structure and its component interactions.
such products as recreation or energy resources. In this manner, the model
is responsive not only to the direct effects of population and economic
growth resulting from resident activity, but it is likewise responsive to
the induced effects of temporary influxes of nonresident populations.
In the aggregate form of the model, activities which occupy space are
classified into three taxonomic groups:
1) The basic sector includes those industries which are subject to
factors other than local influences. These factors might be
unique site features, interindustry linkages, agglomeration econo-
mies, resource availabilities, and interregional transportation
routes (Goldner, 1971). These "export" industries are largely
unconstrained in local site selection and are treated as
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exogenously supplied decisions. In other words, a change in the
level of basic employment is an input to the model which is derived
from the alternative future assumption set.
The service and retail sector is linked to the distribution of the
resident population. In this manner, the market area for a service
center, consisting of business, commercial, administrative, and
similar establishments, is tied directly to the population and its
purchasing power. Although the individual service centers may
compete differentially for customers within a bounded region, the
region of study itself is treated as a closed system, thereby
defining the term "local." The location and level of employment
associated with this sector are treated as endogenous variables and
are determined by the model.
The nomenclature used here is similar to that developed for the
economic base concept (Tiebout, 1962). It should be pointed out,
however, that this economic dichotomy does not necessarily follow
that of the economic base mechanism. The above definitions are
based more stringently upon location features rather than strict
interindustry and interregional marketing criteria. As Lowery
(1964) suggests, better descriptions might be "site-oriented" for
basic and "residence-oriented" for service.
The population sector consists of both resident and transient popu-
lations. It is assumed that the level of employment in the service
and retail sector is directly related to the number of resident
households and the level of temporary population within the region
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at a given time. The resident population is in turn dependent
upon the number of job opportunities in the basic and service
sectors. The distribution of households is assumed to be largely
influenced by the location of the resident's workplace and his
value structure regarding the natural environment. The number
and location of households (and population) is endogenously
determined by the model.
The model distributes activities throughout a bounded region. These
activities are located in subregions or zones within the region. This dis-
tribution is possible because non-homogeneity is characteristic of geo-
graphical areas. Further, the subregional concept is an aid in the
description and understanding of the impact of spatial friction and differ-
entiation on human activity (Tiertz, 1962). The purpose of partitioning a
region into zones is to reduce the non-homogeneity of the constituent set
with which the analysis is concerned to some acceptable level of homogeneity.
Reflecting a concern for interaction between members of the constituent set,
homogeneity was an overriding criterion in the determination of the zones.
Thus, the region was partitioned into zones corresponding to nodes, those
areas capable of reflecting a great diversity of elements bound together in a
systematic way by interconnections, interactions or flows. Each nodal zone
expressed an internal uniformity of organization with regard to information
flow, economic activity, and infrastructural facilities.
The partitioning sequence begins with either a change in employment or
a change in non-resident opulation. To analyze distribution changes associ-
ated with resident population, exogenously determined levels and location of
basic employment serve as the driving variables. This input is obtained
from the population and employment models previously described. Through the
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use of allocation functions of the gravity type, workers employed in these
new jobs are allocated to zones of residence. In turn, the generated
service demand is distributed by the use of a similar allocation function.
Multipliers are used to calculate total subregional population, number of
households, service demand, land consumption, and employment. To analyze
the impact of non-residents upon the system, the initial input consists of
the projected change in the number of transients. This triggers a demand
for services. The remaining changes are determined in a manner similar to
that outlined above, although the parameters differ. Since control totals
for employment and population are provided by other models, the allocation
process is solved repeatedly in an iterative manner until convergence with
these totals is attained.
Land consumption rates are determined exogenously for each land use,
usually by examining local historical ratios. As subtotals of population
are allocated to zones in an iterative manner, the consumption rates are
applied and the results compared to the available amounts of land as deter-
mined by the resource analysis model. If the allocated portion of the total
population increase exceeds the holding capacity of the zones, the excess
is reallocated to the remaining zone.
A common nemesis of mathematical models is their insatiable appetite
for data. Fortunately for planning analysts, data requirements for this
model are relatively small. Most are available during normal data gathering
undertaken in the planning process. Baseline data on employment, population,
travel times and land use are included in this category. Attractiveness
indices can be obtained from the analysis of properly implemented surveys.
Alternative futures are expressions of public policy.
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Infrastructure
Importance
Infrastructure is one of four subsystems in the carrying capacity model.
It has been defined as the "underlying capital of a society embodied in
roads and other transportation and communications systems, as well as water
supplies, electric power, and other public services the term is also
often widened to include the health, skills, education and other qualities
of the population" (Bannock, et^ aj_., 1972). It is the foundation that
underlies a community's economy and determines the degree of its economic
activity. This infrastructure resource links the composite of community
activities such as education, recreation, commerce, and personal services to
a range of physical products, often termed regional outputs. Public services
and distribution networks are typical infrastructure linkages. Such linkages
or infrastructure components may be in the form of waste water and water
treatment, transportation, solid waste disposal, hospitals, schools, and
fire and police protection. The current capabilities of the infrastructure
and the products they distribute to sustain activity are key aspects of the
carrying capacity of a community. As such, infrastructure represents
short- and medium-run constraints on an area's growth potential, both in terms
of quality and quantity. Infrastructure resources in the long-run may be
expanded or reduced to meet a region's demand by modifying capital investment
of those resources.
Process
In order to examine whether or not growth forces in the study area would
effect change in the infrastructure base, it was necessary to first determine
the adequacy of the area's existing infrastructure resources.
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The adequacy of infrastructure components was determined in two ways.
The first method was to review historical ratios between population and
infrastructure requirements; for example, per capita waste water discharge
and treatment plant capacity. Most historic infrastructure ratios are
typically derived from urban studies. The second approach was to determine
if the infrastructure output was provided at a level sufficient to meet
accepted standards, either in terms of performance or convenience. Perfor-
mance standards provide criteria for testing the degree of hazards or nui-
sances to human life which may be present. Criteria are usually developed
from health, safety, or amenity elements which are in the public interest.
Convenience standards are less closely defined, but are used as guidelines
in determining infrastructure resource adequacy. Standards of these types
were found, for the study area, for such components as schools, police and
fire protection, and air and v/ater quality.
Two levels of service must be considered in the examination; this is
dependent on the level of government at which the service is provided.
Certain components were examined at the County level; police protection,
solid waste disposal, and hospitals were of this category. Others, such
as schools, waste water and water treatment, and fire protection were
handled on a district basis for the service is only provided to people
residing in that district. Specifically, for this study inventory, an
analysis was conducted on the following infrastructure resources:
Sewage Disposal Police Protection
Water Supply Hospitals
Transportation Recreation Areas
Education Solid Waste Disposal
Fire Protection
Quasi-public utilities such as electric and natural gas and telephone services
were not considered in the same manner as public services. Due to the nature
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in which these services are supplied by the quasi-public utility companies,
it was found that any increase in demand would be met by these utility
companies. Therefore, it was concluded that services of this type would
not constrain the forecasted population growth for the study area.
The resources of concern were both mapped and described using secondary
data obtained from field interviews and site checks. Following is a discussion
on data sources and situation descriptions for each infrastructure component.
Then, interpretation and uses of the infrastructure subsystem in the carrying
capacity model are discussed.
Water Supply and Waste Water Treatment
Both individual and central systems are included in this infrastructure
component. Individual systems are those which service only one household
whereas central systems service many. There are currently eleven water and
sanitation districts which provide central system service in the study area.
Five of these districts have established water supply and waste water
treatment systems. The data source for these districts was primarily an
engineering study entitled "Water & Sewer Facility Plan - 1972" for Grand
County prepared by Obiinger-Smith Corp. County, District, or EPA sponsored
Area Wide Water Quality Plans and engineering studies are potential secondary
data sources. The Facility Plan was updated with field interviews to more
accurately determine existing conditions. A synopsis of water supply and
waste water treatment plant carrying capacity for the five districts is
shown in Table 16. The water supply standard typically used for engineering
design is 140 liters (37 ^.llons) per capita per day. However, maximum
water usage is also significant when peak daily demands or fire demands
are considered. It has been found that the maximum instantaneous demand
will not exceed 2.5 1pm (.67 gpm) per capita. Based on a maximum use of
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Table 16. Capacity of the water and sanitation districts within the study area.
District Name
Service Area
Description
Capacity Description
Water Supply
Waste Water Treatment
Fraser
Sanitation
District
The Incorporated town
of Fraser (sewer also
Winter Park West
Sanitation District)
Deficit for peak fire flow
demands
Excess capacity—will handle
1750 more people
Granby
Sani tation
Di strict
The Incorporated town
of Granby
No excess or under capacity
No excess or under capacity
Grand Lake
Water and
Sani tation
District
The Incorporated town
.of Grand Lake and
Columbine Lake Water and
Sanitation District
Deficit for large peak fire
flow demands and large.peak
tourism demands
Deficit for large peak
tourism demands
Winter Park
West Water
and Sanitation
Di stri ct
The Winter Park area of
the Fraser Val1ey
Will handle an excess of
300 more people
Excess included in the 1750
people of Fraser
Grand County
Water and
Sanitation
District #1
Hideaway Park Area of
the Fraser Valley
Considerable excess capacity--
will handle 4,000 more people
Deficit of approximately 100
permanent resident capacity,
and large deficit during peak
tourist season
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eight hours, this demand would amount to 1212 liters (320 gallons) per capita
per day (Stoltenberg, D. H., 1970). Water systems are being designed to
meet this standard of 1212 liters (320 gallons) per capita per day and,
therefore, it was used as the standard in this analysis.
Individual systems, such as wells or septic tanks, were not analyzed
in terms of their adequacy to supply water or dispose of waste water. Data
are lacking in this area. Wells and septic tanks are both heavily site
dependent and a primary data survey is needed to determine their adequacy.
Individual systems, however, do play a significant role in water supply
and waste water treatment for people in the study area who reside outside of
water and sanitation district service areas.
Transportation
Major highways in the study area are U.S. Routes 40, 34, and 125. Total
distance for federal highways in the study area is 111.5 kilometers (69.4
miles). Roads maintained by the County total 369 kilometers (229.5 miles),
196 km (122 miles) of which are primary gravel roads and 173 km (107.5 miles)
of secondary gravel roads. Road data were obtained from the Colorado State
Highway Department and the Grand County Surveyor.
The capacity of a roadway is a measure of its ability to accommodate
traffic at an acceptable level of service. The prevailing conditions such
as traffic composition, roadway alignment, and number and width of lanes
usually determine the capacity. Specifically, there are two groups of pre-
vailing conditions. One group is the prevailing roadway conditions which
are established by the physical features of the roadway. These may change
only with construction or reconstruction of the roadway. Another group is
the prevailing traffic conditions. These conditions depend on the nature of
the traffic on the roadway and may change hour to hour or during various
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periods of the day. Ambient conditions such as rain, fog, and snow also
affect capacity; however, data of this nature are limited and not used to
quantify effects on capacity (Highway Research Board, 1965).
Having considered prevailing and ambient conditions, a service volume
can be established. This volume is the maximum number of vehicles that
can pass over a given section of land or roadway in one direction during a
specified time period, while operating conditions are maintained which cor-
respond to the selected or specified level of service. The measurement used
in analyzing roadway capacity is Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). This
is the total yearly volume divided by the number of days in the year.
Actually, samples are taken and adjusted to obtain a yearly total.
Although the methodology exists to determine roadway capacity, it is
usually extremely site specific. Intersections, traffic lights, cross
streets, speed, grades and corners could easily be considered in the analysis.
Typically, however, the capacity of a two-lane, two-way roadway under ideal
conditions is 1500-2000 passenger vehicles per hour total, regardless of
distribution by direction; this estimate assumes the current 88 kmph (55 mph)
speed limit. Analysis of the present use rates on these roads indicates
that there is considerable excess capacity. For example, the 1974 AADT
figures for the intersection of U.S. 34 and 40, the busiest roadway in the
study area, was 4250 (Colorado Division of Highways, 1974). Clearly, there
is much excess capacity for the state roads in the County. Also, as the
speed limit decreases, the capacity of a highway increases. Thus, near the
towns where the speed limits are 65 kmph (40 mph) the capacity will actually
be higher than 1500-2000 vehicles per hour. One must remember that these
figures are average daily figures, and that these use rates do not accurately
reflect peak demand loads, especially near high tourism and recreation areas.
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To determine whether the roadway is sufficient near these areas requires a
detailed, on-site study. County roads will also exhibit different capaci-
ties. Because of the lack of traffic usually found on county roads,
criteria have not as yet been developed to test their sufficiency.
Education
The entire study area is served by East Grand School District No. 2.
There are no institutions of higher learning in the district. All classes
for children in the area are held in Granby with the exception of grades
1-6 in Fraser where children attend Fraser Valley Elementary School. The
1973-74 enrollment for the district was as follows: Middle Park Junior-
Senior High School--450, Granby Elementary--380, Fraser Valley Elementary--
100, for a total of 930 students. According to the Superintendent of
Schools, the system has a capacity of 1000 students; this leaves excess
space for 70 additional students. However, based upon floor space area
standards of 42 square meters (150 ft.2) per high school pupil and IV square
meters (120 ft.2) per elementary school pupil (Nations Schools, 1973), there
is currently overcrowding in the school system: The high school by 127
pupils, Fraser Elementary by 55 pupils, and Granby Elementary by 147 pupils.
It is not clear that the carrying capacity of the school system has been
exceeded; a more detailed analysis would have to be undertaken to determine
if this is the case. However, for the purposes of this study, it is concluded
that the school system is just adequate to handle present needs and does not
have any excess capacity.
Fire Protection
The study area lies within three volunteer fire districts. The fire
stations are located in the towns of Granby, Hideaway Park, and Grand Lake,
Distance and response time are the usual constraints in providing adequate
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fire protection in the study area. A definitive adequacy test in the form
of performance indices may be achieved utilizing the Grading Schedule for
Municipal Fire Protection (Insurance Services Office). This schedule is a
means for classifying municipalities according to their fire defenses and
physical conditions and is used by insurance agencies as an indicator of
fire risks. Ten classes are used to describe the conditions based on
deficiencies of the fire department in four areas; these are water supply,
the department itself (personnel, etc.), fire service communications, and
fire safety control. Nearly 80 percent of the rating is based on the two
categories of personnel and available water supply. A class one rating
indicates little or no deficiency, i.e., very little fire risk; a class
ten rating indicates large deficiency and/or no fire department or water
supply. Ratings in the study area are typically class eight within corporate
limits, class nine up to one mile outside of corporate limits, and class ten
elsewhere within the district. These low ratings are due to the fact that
the departments are all volunteer, that there are usually no fire hydrants
outside of town, and because distances may be great to a fire.
Police Protection
There are presently 20 officers in the Grand County Sheriff's Department,
headquartered in Hot Sulphur Springs. Resident Town Marshals are located
in Granby, Grand Lake, and Kremmling; and the Colorado State Patrol also has
headquarters at Hot Sulphur Springs for an addition of approximately 10
officers.
As of this time there are no standards for police protection for rural
mountain communities. Historic ratio studies have been conducted in metro-
politan areas where the recommended number of officers is one per 1000 people
(National Advisory Commission on Criminal Justice, 1973). Three other
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important criteria used to determine this standard include case load,
geographical considerations, and ability to respond with backup officers
within a reasonable amount of time. Of paramount importance is response
time for emergency calls. Because of distance and geography, it is
suggested that one officer per 500 people more accurately reflects require-
ments for rural mountain communities (Henderson, 1974). If one used the
1/500 figure and the total of 30.officers, it could be said that there is
sufficient enforcement for 15,000 people, an excess of approximately 8,500
people or 17 officers. However, this conclusion of excess capacity may
or may not be correct; as with many infrastructure components, peak demand
loads are no exception when considering police protection. Although 85
percent of law enforcement activity may be adequately covered, 15 percent
may be peak or "worst case" loads and the department may not have the man-
power to adequately protect the community. High levels of transient
populations, such as those Grand County experiences in the summer months,
or serious crimes, are often the cause of peak demand loads. Also, where
cases must be investigated great distances from the police headquarters,
investigative officers must stay at the scene for long periods of time.
Clearly, this reduces the efficiency of protection for the remainder of
the County.
It is concluded that present police protection is adequate to meet
present needs. However, the exact excess capacity, if there is any, cannot
be found using existing standards or historic ratio criteria.
Hospitals
A 20-bed hospital is located in Kremmling, Colorado, which is approxi-
mately 30 miles from most points in the study area. Ambulances are located
throughout the County, one each in Hot Sulphur Springs, Grand Lake, and
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Granby. The hospital in Kremmling does not service the entire study area.
Many residents prefer to travel to Denver Metropolitan hospitals for their
health needs. The exact number is not known, but variables which account
for large percentages of variations in geographical dispersion of patients
include: the required time to reach the hospital providing the type and
quality of services that the individual is seeking; the size of the hospital
complex; and the number of services provided by that complex (Ault, 1973).
The disutility of distance and uncertainty as to the quality and type
of services offered are the considerations people include in making their
choice as to which hospital to choose. Distance does not seem to be the
single appropriate criterion whereby one can measure hospital adequacy for
an individual will travel great distances to receive medical services
essential to his survival.
Gravity type models have been developed using distance and attractivity
indices (determined by size or services offered) to estimate hospital service
areas. Once the service area is known, the population that the facility
will serve can be approximated and the hospital's adequacy determined (Ault,
1973). Although tested primarily in metropolitan areas, gravity models
could also predict accurately for rural areas.
Because the exact service area of the Kremmling and Denver Metro hospi-
tals are not known, it is impossible at this time to derive a quantitative
description of the sufficiency of present health care facilities. Local
interviews do not suggest that they are inadequate. Therefore, we can con-
4
elude that the carrying capacity for this infrastructure component has not
been exceeded.
Recreation
The recreational resource inventory revealed that town recreational
areas in Granby and Grand Lake and the district provide the recreational
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opportunities in the Grand Lake Metropolitan Recreation District. Granby
has approximately five acres of land on which are located two tennis courts,
two basketball courts, two swingsets, one baseball diamond, and one picnic
shelter. Grand Lake has approximately three acres of land on which two
tennis courts are located. The Grand Lake Metropolitan Recreation District
charged with providing recreational activities to its service area, cur-
rently provides a 9-hole golf course with plans for expansion to 18-holes
in the near future. The generally accepted standard for recreation space
is one acre of land for each 100 persons in the community (Rodney, 1974).
Further breakdowns of standards by activity may be found in Rodney
(Rodney, 1974); however, these standards are for urbanized areas and cannot
be applied to the study area because population figures needed to support
each activity are above those of both the towns of Granby and Grand Lake.
Suggested space standards are also found in Moeller (Moeller, 1965);
however, the same problem exists--standards in Moeller are figured to
service a population of 100,000. Adjustment to the study area's populations
produces absurd results in terms of facilities and space needed.
The only standard that seems reasonable is for golf courses. Using a
stand of one 18-hole golf course per 20,000 population (Moeller, 1965), it
is found that there is much excess capacity for this activity.
An abnormality also affects the inventory of the recreational capacity
in the study area because approximately 2/3 of the area is federally managed
by the Forest Service, National Park Service, or BLM. Any established
standards will tend to overestimate the area needed in municipal and district
areas because the federal lands provide many recreational needs. Local
government is, therefore, not obliged to supply the recreational space
suggested by the known standards. It is concluded that there is much excess
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recreational capacity; however, this capacity may not be in the form of
established facilities. Standards do not yet exist to determine capacity
for recreational facilities in rural areas where opportunities exist for
recreation on vast amounts of federal land.
Solid Waste Disposal
Solid waste disposal sites are supplied by the County government. The
data source was the Grand County Sanitarian for present description and
situation and the Colorado Department of Health for standards and regulations.
Two sanitary landfill operations are working in the County, one in the Fraser
area and one near Granby. Adequacy was determined by using present state
and County regulations (i.e., performance standards), If these regulations
are not being met, then capacity has been exceeded. Minimum standards that
must be met are: control of obnoxious odors, prohibition of radioactive
materials, nuisance minimization such as windblown debris, insect and rodent
control, adequate fencing, absence of burning, and covering of the landfill
with soil at the end of each working day (Colorado Department of Health).
The County is currently under a cease and desist order from the State of
Colorado Department of Health to stop operations at the Granby dump. There
is no more room both in volume and area at the present time to support any
more solid waste for residents in the Granby area.
A fair average allowance of landfill space is three cubic meters (4
cubic yards) per capita for a 20-year period (Colonna, R. A., and C. McLaren,
1974). However, it is difficult to determine the amount needed in terms of
volume required for a mountain community. The volume of space required is
" primarily dependent upon the character and quantity of the solid wastes,
the efficiency of compaction of the wastes, the depth of fill, and the
desired life of the landfill" (Colonna, R. A., and C. McClaren, 1974). The
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volume requirement then should be determined on the basis of specific data
and information, Although efforts are underway to obtain a new landfill
site, it must be concluded that because present operations do not meet state
standards, they are not adequate and the carrying capacity in the Granby area
has been exceeded.
Interpretation
Each infrastructure component must be interpreted individually when
determining the capacity status of that component. Standards, regulations,
and historic ratios have been used to determine if existing infrastructure
systems are sufficient to meet projected demands. This procedure has been
used in the urban setting (Isard, 1957), and conceptually the procedure
seems quite adequate for the mountain environment. There may, however, be
some inherent problems associated with using urban standards as criteria
for evaluating infrastructure adequacy in a rural mountain setting. The
mountain setting is typically quite variable in terms of topography, climate,
and physiography, and it is to be expected that standards should also vary.
Requirements for public service facilities must be typically determined on
the basis of on-site studies in order to meet the individual needs of each
facility. Also, some standards for infrastructure components are as yet
imperfectly developed, some being more highly developed than others (Chapin,
1965). For example, the analysis for fire protection was much more exact
than for hospitals. Also, many historic ratios of per capita water use and
waste water generation are usually from urban areas. Chapin suggests that
where there are variations in the circumstances of infrastructure components,
variable standards may be warranted (Chapin, 1965).
Definitions of desirable standards are often only subjective in nature,
and performance standards are presently focused on minimum rather than
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"desirable" standards (Isard, 1957). Isard suggests that space requirements
for public service facilities should be determined on the basis of special
studies of the individual needs of each facility and that the site size and/or
capacity should be dictated by these needs (Isard, 1957). In a study con-
ducted on residential and second home uses, a conclusion is drawn regarding
the inadequate data sources for infrastructure resources. It says:
A review of available literature indicates that some research has
been done and methodological appraoches are available. However,
the research emphasis in this area is usually on the demands for
goods and services from the private sector and the objective is
primarily to determine the multiplier effect. Data about the
effects of vacation home developments and industrial based "new
towns" on the demand for, and the supply of, public goods and
services are almost completely lacking. (Williams, Anne S., et
al_., 1974).
Of special concern is the inadequacy of the infrastructure subsystem to
handle individual systems, such as septic tanks and wells. These systems
are ignored in the final determination of a specific region's carrying
capacity. Although proxies such as water quality may be used to analyze
these systems, these data are also often lacking.
It is concluded that in many cases, individuals in rural settings have
made a tradeoff in their consumption of public services and choose less of
those services for a "country lifestyle." This decision presumes that a
greater risk has been undertaken in terms of health care or police and fire
protection. Standards and regulations developed for urban centers may not
adequately reflect the value Grand County residents put on those services.
The assumption has been made, through this procedure, that both urban and
rural residents place the same value on public services as the same criteria
used to evaluate urban infrastructure were used to evaluate rural infra-
structure. Clearly, in terms of health facilities and fire protection the
same criteria do not hold and when interpreting an individual infrastructure
component for adequacy, the method used must be considered.
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With recognition of these data and methodological limitations, there
are some conclusions warranted from the analysis. For the central water
supply, central waste water treatment, solid waste, and fire protection com-
ponents, there are existing deficits. Police and hospital services appear
adequate to meet existing needs, but the amount of excess capacity in these
components is not known. The educational system is operating at capacity.
The only obvious areas that can handle growth (where excess capacity exists)
without new investment are transportation and recreation. One might conclude
from this analysis that there are presently significant infrastructure
capacity constraints to the growth of eastern Grand County. Any alternative
future for which growth is projected will demand expansion of the infra-
structure of eastern Grand County,
Allocation of Development
The product of the population and economic modeling process was the
generation of resource needs; in particular, hectares of land needed to
satisfy the demand for residential housing, vacation housing, and business-
commercial development. Since the scenario composites represent the supply
of environmentally suitable land, the projected demand was sited directly
on the composites. Once the demand was sited it was possible to estimate
the impacts of the alternative futures for both the environmental factors
and the infrastructure components.
In order to locate the resource demands on the scenario composites, it
was necessary to formulate a set of guidelines. The guidelines were developed
to make the allocation process as realistic as possible, but there are
definite limitations inherent in the allocation process. While the composite
maps identify private lands that are environmentally best suited for develop-
ment, it is impossible to accurately reflect the actions of individual
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developers. In the real situation when a developer owns land and wants to
develop it for second homes, he will often attempt to do so regardless of
the environmental suitability of that land. Often, all he must do is
comply with existing county regulations concerning plat sizes, services,
road widths, and other requirements. He can ignore to a large degree the
environmental factors on which the composites are based. However, in
carrying out the study process, it was assumed that County regulations would
support the use of our environmental composites. Based on that assumption,
the following guidelines were developed:
1. Location of the demand was sited on areas of suitable land nearest
to the existing population centers. If all the allowed parcels of land were
consumed, or when they had severe soils and hydrologic constraints, demand
was sited on the least restrictive parcels closest to the towns.
2. All existing County-approved and maintained roads were considered
to be transportation corridors. Under the scenario descriptions, new roads
were assumed permissible only in the high development Scenario IV. For the
other scenarios the siting was based on a concept of least cost for the
public, i.e., the County. Since new road construction, maintenance, and snow
plowing are large public expenditures, this assumption seemed reasonable.
Other utilities, such as electricity and telephones, are costs borne by the
private developer, so access to these services was not considered.
3. In all the scenarios, business and commercial demands were sited
first. This seemed reasonable due to the fact that access to the main high-
ways, U.S. 34 and U.S. 40, is more important for businesses than for resi-
dences or vacation homes. Also, businesses are more likely to be able to
afford the high-cost land adjacent to the present towns on the main highway
corridors. No separate business-commercial sitings on areas smaller than
-------
-133-
two hectares were made. If the demand was two hectares or less, it was
assumed that there would be space available within the exiting town bounda-
ries to absorb the projected demand. Residential demand was sited second,
and vacation demand sited last,
4. Allocation of the total demand for each category was split into
any size that seemed reasonable. However, allocations of less than two
hectares were avoided for the residential and vacation categories. This
decision was based on the premise that the infrastructure costs, such as
water and sewer lines, should be maintained. Many small areas would be much
more costly to service than several larger areas. Hence, the infrastructure
costs are a response to location of the demand based on environmental hazards
and the distance to the nearest population center.
5. If there were two towns in an area (e.g., Granby sector), the demand
categories were generally split into two groups. The percentage of each of
the three demand categories was roughly proportional to the size of the two
towns. Thus, it was assumed that the towns in the areas would grow at an
even rate, rather than allowing the size of one town to quadruple while the
others stayed the same.
These guidelines were utilized to allocate the demand into three such
areas of the study area. The allocation process was carried out by overlay-
ing the soils maps on the composites. In this way the soils and hydrologic
limitations of each environmentally suitable area of land could be ascer-
tained. Usually there were enough allowed parcels of land adjacent to
County roads with low to moderate soils and hydrologic limitations to site
the projected demand on each scenario campsite. However, in some cases,
and especially in Scenario I, there was no allowed land, or not enough to
absorb the development. There were also cases in which the allowed land had
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severe soils and hydrologic limitations. In these special situations the
demand was sited on restrictive areas. Parcels were selected that had the
fewest number of limiting environmental factors, balanced with the soils
and hydrologic limitations and the other guidelines.
Table 17 shows the allocation of land demand for each alternative
future. Demand allocation for residential, vacation, and business-commercial
development is given. The table shows land suitability class, area required,
and the general location of allocation.
Once the allocation phase was complete, the environmental impacts and
infrastructure demands could be calculated. This subject is treated in the
following section.
Impact Estimation
Estimating the impacts from each of the alternative futures is necessary
for full evaluation of each future. Impacts on the environmental system were
estimated for each alternative future. Summary results of this impact assess
ment are given below. The environmental impacts are only given for the
Granby Quadrangle (USGS) as an illustration.
The lands likely to be utilized under each future for commercial/
business, permanent residential, and vacation residential are shown in
figures 16 through 20 for the Granby Quadrangle. Allocation of uses to
these lands came through the process outlined above. The allocation is to
lands capable of producing the land use activity with the least environmental
disturbance (given the goals of each scenario) and the most feasible
opportunity.
Vegetation
Vegetation in the Granby region consists of five major ecosystems. The
streamside ecosystem parallels the waterways, the mountain dry ecosystem
-------
Table 17. Allocation of land demand giving suitability class, use, area, and general location.
Sub-Area
Granby
Fraser
Land
Grand Lake
Land Suitability Map
Land
Land
Use'3
k
Location
(Scenario)
Class3
Useb
Areac
Location
Class®
Areac
Location
Class3
Use"
Area
I
R
BC
14.14
SE of Granby
R
BC
1.21
In Fraser
R
BC
8.08
W of Grand Lake
R
BC
2.02
In Granby
R
R
.81
SW of Fraser
R
BC
5.66
E of Grand Lake
R
R
14.54
S of Granby
R
V
3.64
SW of Fraser
R
R
10.10
NW of NRA Hdqts.
R
R
6.06
NW of Granby
R
R
6.06
W of Grand Lake
R
R
4.04
NW of Granby
R
V
19.80
W of Grand Lake
R
V
4.04
N of Granby
R
V
18.18
S of Granby
R
V
13.74
SW of Granby
II
R
BC
14.14
SE of Granby
R
BC
1.62
In Hideaway Park
R
BC
12.12
W of Grand Lake
R
BC
6.46
NW of Granby
R
BC
1.62
In Fraser
R
BC
6.06
E of Grand Lake
R
BC
2.02
In Granby
R
R
2.02
NE of Hideaway Park
R
BC
4.04
E of Grand Lake
R
R
4.04
N of Granby
R
R
2.02
SW of Fraser
R
R
36.76
E of Grand Lake
R
R
14.54
SE of Granby
R
V
3.23
NW of Hideaway Park
R
V
8.08
NE of Grand Lake
R
R
10.10
S of Granby
R
V
3.23
NE of Fraser
R
V
6.46
NE of Grand Lake
R
R
18.18
S of Granby
R
R
' 6.87
S of Granby
R
V
13.74
SW of Granby
R
V
14.95
SW of Rainbow Bay
III
R
BC
14.14
S of Granby
A
BC
2.02
W of Hideaway Park
A
BC
10.10
E of Grand Lake
A
BC
6.06
NW of Granby
A
BC
2.02
SW of Tabernash
A
BC
8.08
W of Grand Lake
R
BC
22.22
W of Granby
R
BC
2.42
W of Fraser
A
BC
31 .51
N of Granby Pump Stn.
R
BC
5.66
NE of Granby
A
R
4.85
W of Hideaway Park
A
R
32.72
E of Grand Lake
A
R
12.12
S of Granby
R
R
7.27
W of Fraser
A
R
77.51
N of Granby Pump Stn.
A
R
2 0.20
S of Granby
A
R
2.42
W of Tabernash
A
V
4.44
N of Columbine Lake
A
R
30.70
S of Granby
A
V
2.83
E of Fraser
A
R
62.62
S of Granby
A
R
16.16
SW of Granby
R
R
19.80
S of Granby
3R = Residential, A = Allowed
bBC = Business/Commercial
R = Residential
V = Vacation residential
cln Hectares
-------
Table 17—Continued.
Sub-Area
Granby
Fraser
Grand
_ake
Land Suitability Hap
Land
Land
Land
(Scenario)
Class3
Useb
Area0
Location
Class3
Useb
Areac
Location
Class3
Useb
Areac
Location
IV
A
BC
107.87
NW of Granby
A
BC
4.04
SE of Tabernash
A
BC
67.87
E of Grand Lake
A
BC
18.58
NE of Granby
A
BC
10.10
N of Fraser
A
BC
54.54
SW of Grand Lake
A
R
170.89
N of Granby
A
BC
8.08
S of Hideaway Park
A
R
154.73
E of Grand Lake
A
R
51.70
E of Granby
A
R
16.16
SW of Fraser
A
V
31.92
N of NRA Ranger Stn.
A
R
35.15
S of Granby
A
R
10.10
W of Hideaway Park
A
R
66.26
N of 8-Mile School
A
R
4.04
NE of Fraser
A
V
16.16
NW of Granby
A
R
4.04
E of Fraser
A
V
50.50
SW of Granby
A
R
8.08
S of Tabernash
A
V
12.12
E of Tabernash
V
R
BC
14.14
S of Granby
A
BC
10.10
N of Fraser
A
BC
8.08
W of Grand Lake
A
BC
6.06
NW of Granby
A
BC
5.66
W of Hideaway Park
A
BC
42.02
SW of Grand Lake
R
BC
22.22
W of Granby
A
BC
2.02
In Tabernash
A
BC
84.44
N of Granby Pump Stn.
R
BC
5.60
NE of Granby
A
R
6.06
NE of Hideaway Park
A
R
32.72
E of Grand Lake
R
BC
29.08
W of Granby
A
R
2.02
NW of Hideaway Park
A
R
121.60
W of Grand Lake
R
BC
14.14
NE of Granby
A
R
6.06
SW of Tabernash
A
V
8.08
NW of Granby Pump Stn.
R
BC
4.04
S of Granby
A
R
4.04
E of Fraser
A
V
6.06
NW of Grand Lake
A
BC
18.18
S of Granby
A
R
10.10
SW of Fraser
A
R
12.12
S of Granby
A
V
6.06
SW of Fraser
A
R
50.90
S of Granby
A
V
4.44
NE of Fraser
A
R
62.62
S of Granby
A
R
16.16
SW of Granby
R
R
19.80
S of Granby
R
R
111.50
N of Granby
A
V
10.10
SE of Granby
A
V
50.10
W of Val Moritz
aR = Residential, A = Allowed
bBC = Business/Comnerclal
R = Residential
V = Vacation residential
cIn Hectares
-------
-137-
KEY FOR RESOURCE COMPOSITE MAPS, FIGURES 16 to 20,
Existing Developed Areas, exclusive of towns.
Scenario Demand Allocation Areas.
P - Land Areas Prohibitive for Development
Land Areas Restrictive for Development for Reasons
Indicated by Subscript.
v - vegetation restrictions
x - visual restrictions
w - wildlife restrictions
g - geologic restrictions
A - Land Areas Allowable for Development
B-C - Business-Commercial Development
Res - Year Round Residential Development
Vac - Vacation and Second Home Development
-------
-138-
Figure 16. Land allocation for Scenario I
resource composite.
-------
-139-
UNHID STATU
CSPAKTMEMT OT TW •fTUBW
OCntOOICAl SURVEY
SCENARIO I RESOURCE COMPOSITE
OWAMJY QUADRANGLE ^
noLf*«o-o»«® co /
1 WW/Tf OID ITCmVtPHX 1 f
¦
-------
-140-
Figure 17. Land allocation for Scenario II
resource composite.
-------
-141-
SCENARIO IT RESOURCE COMPOSITE :=~I
-------
-142-
Figure 18. Land allocation for Scenario III
resource composite.
-------
-143-
UNfTU) 8TATO
ccPAimofT or tw niebo
OCOUXUCAL 8URVCY
SCENARIO HI RESOURCE COMPOSITE
ORAM0Y OU^ORAMOLE .
iruatuu uramo ro jr
¦nun ¦KlliTI»ro*
-------
-144-
Figure 19. Land allocation for Scenario
resource composite.
-------
-145-
-TKkjjjr- SCENARIO 12 RESOURCE COMPOSITE
OBANBY OU A WANGLE ^
cm*m w jr
) *
-------
-146-
Figure 20. Land allocation for Scenario V
resource composite.
-------
-147-
-------
-148-
occupies the flatter lands where haying operations are possible, and the
sagebrush ecosystem is on the drier hillsides. The lodgepole pine ecosystem
is the major forest type with small patches of the aspen ecosystem scattered
within the area.
In allocating development within the Granby region, only three of the
five ecosystems (sagebrush, mountain dry, and lodgepole pine) were used.
This was because development was allocated under the various alternative
futures in a manner meant to minimize the environmental and social impacts
to the vegetative ecosystems and the other resource factors. Based on the
relative resource weighting system, as reflected in the composite maps,
the cost of allocating development to the streamside or aspen ecosystems
was considered too high (restrictive or prohibitive).
As the hectares of development needed for the different alternative
futures increased, the hectares of vegetation consumed increased with the
result that more and more vegetation would be taken out of future production.
In addition to the specific productive capacity that would be lost, other
less quantifiable attributes, such as aesthetic and water quality standards,
may be degraded by loss of hectares of vegetation.
Following is the list of hectares of vegetation consumed and their
relative weighting by each alternative future.
Future 1
56.2 hectares (139 acres) sagebrush ecosystem - Restrictive
2.0 hectares (5 acres) lodgepole pine ecosystem - Restrictive
Future 2
106.6 hectares (264 acres) sagebrush ecosystem - Restrictive
Future 3
139.4 hectares (345 acres) sagebrush ecosystem - Allowable
-------
-149-
59.8 hectares (148 acres) mountain dry ecosystem - Restrictive
20.6 hectares (51 acres) lodgepole pine ecosystem - Allowable
Future 4
305.5 hectares (756 acres) mountain dry ecosystem - Allowable
205.6 hectares (509 acres) sagebrush ecosystem - Allowable
Future 5
262.6 hectares (650 acres) mountain dry ecosystem - Restrictive
184.2 hectares (456 acres) sagebrush ecosystem - Allowable
As the demand for hectares increases, the supply of allowable land is
more rapidly consumed. This leads to development being located on less
desirable land (for development) and thus higher impacts on vegetation.
Soils
The soil resources of an area can impose certain limitations upon the
types of developments which can occur. These limitations are related to
soil type, and thus are site specific and dependent upon the proposed use.
The development types and the locations of the affected soils can be seen
by comparing the soil map, Figure 21, of the Granby Quadrangle with the
scenario resource composite maps.
Geology
The same geologic impacts affecting the entire study area are the impacts
which can be expected in the Granby Quadrangle. These include 1) increased
potential for slope failure; and 2) removal of aggregate sources form
production.
With continued development on gentle to moderate slopes throughout the
quadrangle, an increase in potential for slope failure can be expected. How-
ever, since all suggested areas of development have been located in low and
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-150-
Key to Soil Series Names and Map Symbols* for Figure 21
Map Symbol Soil Series Names
3 & 71
Clayburn loam
4
Cumulic Cryaquolls
12
Handran gravelly loam
15
Bearmouth sandy loam
19
Forelle loam
20
Leavitt loam
23
Aaberg clay loam
25
Hitchen clay loam
26
Binco clay loam
27
Cimmaron loam
28
Mayoworth clay loam
33
Roxal loam
35
Woodhall loam
38
Gateway loam
39
Cebone loam
40
Anvik loam
43
Grenadier gravelly loam
46
Lake Creek loam
47
Leadville fine sandy loam
51
Cryoboralls-Rock Outcrop Complex
58
Rogert gravelly loam
59
Emerald gravelly sandy loam
60
Yovimpa clay loam
70 & 69
Frisco-peeler Complex
72
Cowdrey loam
73
Hierro sandy loam
74
Youga loam
75 & 76
Quander cobbly loam
77 & 17
Scout cobbly sandy loam
79
Upson coarse sandy loam
W
Histic Cryaquolls
General Slope Classes and Corresponding Ranges
B - 0- 3% slopes
C - 0- 6% slopes
D - 0-15% slopes
E - 6-25% slopes*
F - > 15% slopes**
Exceptions:
* Soil unit 71E has slopes from 15-25%
** Soil units 70F & 71F have slopes >25%
*Source: U.S. Soil Conservation Service, Kremmling, Colo.
Preliminary Data; subject to change
-------
-151-
Figure 21. Detailed soils map for the
Granby quadrangle.
-------
-------
-153-
moderate hazard areas, the potential for slope failure is not great, and
these areas should be considered as safe for development, provided that
proper construction practices are followed.
In addition, the removal of aggregate sources from production can be
expected to occur only in the immediate vicinity of Granby as development
continues upon and adjacent to the terrace on which the town is located.
Due to the fact that abundant sand and gravel are already being extracted
from a portion of the terrace, moderate development in the area should not
significantly affect the amount of available mineral aggregate.
Wildlife
While no critical wildlife areas were consumed or removed from use under
the different alternative futures, it is likely that increasing the number
of County occupants will have a generally negative impact on wildlife popula-
tions. This impact was minimized because under the allocation rules future
developments were placed near existing towns or roads. If the development
areas had been allocated under a more random system, there would have been
considerably more impact on wildlife. For instance, deer and elk herds tend
to avoid human settlements and uncontrolled and scattered development would
impinge on a herd's freedom of movement and thus, available habitat.
Visual Resource
Visual vulnerability is defined as the potential of a parcel of land to
absorb and screen land use changes. In this section areas of land classed
restrictive because of the visual resource and used for development are
tallied. Different quantities of land are consumed under each future, yet
the difference does not necessarily imply that a future in which a large
quantity of restrictive land is consumed is of a low visual quality. It does
mean, however, that the change in visible amounts of development is great.
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In contrast, if all the development in an alternative future was located in
areas of low visual vulnerability, the visual quality of the area would
remain essentially unchanged.
Utilizing carefully designed building standards, the impact of develop-
ment problems in restrictive visual areas can be mitigated to a large degree.
Careful location away from ridgetops, sensitive selection of building
materials, and low building heights can reduce the visual impact of develop-
ment in any area. The tally of lands in the Granby Quadrangle needing
these special treatments is below. From these figures it is apparent that
unless mitigating measures are taken, significant visual impacts would occur
under all alternative futures except number 4.
Future 1
All but 2 hectares (5 acres) of the total demand were located in visu-
ally restrictive areas. In the Granby area, the restriction is primarily
due to the lack of screening vegetation. In total, 77 hectares (190 acres)
of restrictive area is consumed.
Future 2
Approximately 99 hectares (244 acres) of restrictive land are consumed.
Only 2 hectares (5 acres) of demand are located in non-vulnerable areas.
Future 3
Development areas are located on 48 hectares (118 acres) of visually
restrictive land. Twenty-eight of these hectares (69 acres) are used for
business-commercial development while the remaining 20 hectares (49 acres)
are classed residential.
Future 4
No visually restrictive areas were consumed.
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Future 5
Over 206 hectares (511 acres) of visually restrictive land were consumed
with Future 5. Business-commercial developments utilize over 75 hectares
(186 acres) while residential developments utilize over 131 hectares (325
acres).
Hydrology
The determination of the hydrologic impacts which result from develop-
ments in the Granby Quadrangle requires the application of an impact assess-
ment process. Table 18 shows the comparative volumes of runoff from open
space and developed lands by development type and scenario. Based on the
volumes shown in Table 18, total runoff, sediment quantities, and pollutant
loading estimates are given in Table 19. By using the size and type of
development and the soil type which occurs at the location, the specific
impacts of any of the developments shown on the resource composite maps can
be estimated.
The volumes of runoff and the resultant sedimentation and pollutant
loading will cause problems in stream channel modification, sediment deposi-
tion, and water quality degradation. The stream channels in the Granby
Quadrangle can be expected to become deeper and wider in response to the
increased volumes of water they will have to carry. Increased bank erosion
will also occur with a resultant loss of streamside vegetation.
As the volume of storm runoff increases, the size of the flood peak will
also increase. Runoff volume also affects the base flow because for any
storm the larger the percentage of direct runoff, the smaller the amount of
water available for soil moisture replacement and ground water storage
(Leopold, 1968). As a result of increases in impervious areas, flood peaks
will be higher during storms, while low flows will decrease during the
-------
Table 18. Comparative runoff by development type and scenario for the Granby Case Study Area.
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Business-
Commercial
Open Space
M3 X 1000
4.0 to
12.3
5.3 to
15.5
11.7 to
30.3
32.8 to
78.4
28.8 to
71.1
Acre feet
3.2 to
10.0
4.3 to
12.6
9.5 to
24.6
26.6 to
63.6
23.4 to
57.6
Developed
M3 X 1000
35.7 to
57.6
47.4 to
78.1
105.4 to
171.9
279.7 to
448.6
267.0 to
420.5
Acre feet
29.9 to
46.7
38.5 to
63.3
85.5 to
139.3
226.7 to
363.7
216.4 to
340.9
Resident!a 1
Housing
Open Space
M3 X 1000
8.6 to
20.0
26.3 to
59.0
92.9 to
178.2
185.9 to
364.7
160.0 to
326.4
Acre feet
7.0 to
16.2
21.3 to
47.8
74.6 to
144.5
150.7 to
295.6
129.7 to
264.6
Developed
M3 X 1000
25.0 to
41 .6
62.6 to
106.8
185.1 to
315.5
429.5 to
666.3
344.0 to
569.7
Acre feet
20.2 to
33.7
50.7 to
86.6
150.7 to
255.8
348.1 to
540.1
278.9 to
461 .8
Vacati on
Housing
Open Space
M3 X 1000
15.1 to
36.5
12.9 to
32.3
5.5 to
13.0
38.0 to
76.9
26.6 to
65.3
Acre feet
12.2 to
29.6
10.4 to
26.1
4.5 to
10.5
30.8 to
62.3
21 .6 to
53.0
Developed
M3 X 1000
25.9 to
51.7
23.6 to
43.3
9.3 to
18.1
55.7 to
100.8
45.3 to
91 .2
Acre feet
21.0 to
41 .9
19.1 to
35.1
7.5 to
14.7
45.2 to
81 .7
36.7 to
74.0
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Table 19. Total volume, sediment, and pollutant loading from Granby Case Study Area.
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
86.6 to
150.9
133.6
to 282.2
299.8
to 505.5
764.9 to 1 ,215.7
656.3 to 1,081.4
Total
cubic
meters
cubic
meters
cubic
meters
cubic meters
cubic meters
Runoff
71.1 to
122.3
108.3
to 185.0
243.7
to 409.8
620.0 to 985.4
532.0 to 876.5
acre
feet
acre
feet
acre
feet
acre feet
acre feet
Area and
.769
km.2
1.052 km.2
2.201 km.2
5.180 km.2
4.476 km.2
Sediment
273 metric t/yr
374 metric t/yr
782 metric t/yr
1840 metric t/yr
1590 metric t/yr
Volume
301 short t/yr
412 short t/yr
862 short t/yr
2028 short t/yr
1752 short t/yr
Low
High
Low
High
Low
High
Low High
Low Hiqh
Pollutants
*B0D
2,018
3,516
3,113
5,317
6,985
11 ,778
17,822 28,325
15,291 25,196
from
*C0D
5,534
9,642
8,537
14,582
19,157
32,301
48,871 77,683
41 ,937 69,101
Storm
*N
234
407
361
616
809
1,364
2,065 3,282
1 ,772 2,919
Runoff
*P
69
120
107
182
240
404
612 973
525 865
*S.S.
86,600
150,900
133,600
228,200
299,800
505,500
764,900 1,215,700
656,300 1,081,400
**FCB
105,306
183,494
162,457
277,491
364,557
614,688
930,118 1,478,291
798,060 1,314,982
*in kilograms per year
**in number of bacteria per year x 105
-------
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periods between storms. Also, since ground water storage will decrease, those
areas which depend upon water supplies from surface alluvial sediments may be
seriously affected.
The major effect of land use upon sedimentation results from exposure of
the soil to rainfall and storm runoff. This sediment chokes streams and fills
reservoirs, severely limiting their uses for recreation and aesthetic enjoy-
ment, as well as reducing their capacities to accommodate peak flood flows.
Several methods are commonly used to handle the water quality problems
attendant with increased runoff. Storm water can be collected through a
storm sewer system and mixed with effluents from household sewer lines. The
effluent mix is then processed through central treatment facilities before
release into the natural water ways. However, treatment facilities with
the capacities necessary to treat the effluents from peak storm flows are
extremely expensive to construct and operate. In addition, the costs of
the collection system alone can be prohibitive in rural areas. Another option
is the separate collection of storm runoff and the direct, untreated discharge
of the untreated water into large bodies of water.
The alternative approach is to neither collect nor treat storm runoff.
This latter approach is the course of action most often used in mountainous
situations. This approach can and does lead to decreased water quality and
to the degradation of the natural conditions of streams, lakes, and reservoirs.
Choosing a Desired Future
The next step in the process was selection of a desired future. Articu-
lation of a desired future is necessary so that a plan can be written to
achieve a particular goal. In this study, the selection of a desired future
was done through utilization of a second survey. The survey technique
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enabled the identification of a future which reflected community objectives
and goals rather than the guesses about a planner's assumption about public
desires.
Survey Purpose and Methodology
The primary purpose of the survey was to describe the five alternative
futures and have the respondents indicate which ones they like or disliked.
They were also to preferentially rank the futures. Following are the five
composited futures.
FUTURE 1: PRESERVATION/TOURISM
Grand County will continue to develop its tourist industry, but only
to the extent that the development is compatible with protecting the
environment. Tourist facilities will not be allowed to harm the best
scenic, wildlife, and backcountry areas of the County. Developments
will mostly be for transients and located in areas already having
tourist development like along highway corridors, the Three Lakes area
and existing communities. Year-round recreation opportunities would
be encouraged in order to stabilize the job market. Local government
will have to exercise strong controls in order to accomplish these
goals.
With this future, by 1990 there would be 1,016 new jobs in the County.
But not much real economic growth would happen in the County. The
population would increase by about 500 residents by 1980 and by another
1,500 by 1990. The land needed for these developments would be less
than one percent of the total available, with about 188 acres needed
in Grand Lake, 268 in Granby, 35 in Fraser, 145 in Hot Sulphur Springs,
and 163 in Kremmling.
FUTURE 2: EXTRACTIVE AND LIGHT INDUSTRY—HIGH DEVELOPMENT
In order to stabilize the economy, local government officials will do
all they possibly can to encourage,both extractive (i.e., mining,
lumber) and light industries in the County. There will be little
government control except that necessitated by state and national
regulations. Natural amenities will be protected, but not at the
expense of industry. Tourism will still be encouraged, particularly
around the Three Lakes and Winter Park areas.
This future indicates that the economy will be greatly accelerated by
an additional 4,500 jobs by 1990. The total population for the County
will reach 15,400 by 1990, an increase from 1975 of 9,100 residents.
The land for this development would be about 795 acres in Grand Lake,
1,279 in Granby, 190 in Fraser, 614 in Hot Sulphur Springs, and 810 in
Kremmling.
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FUTURE 3: TOURISM—HIGH DEVELOPMENT
Areas of the County are to be developed giving greatest consideration
to their economic potential as tourist "attractors," The natural
environment will be maintained to the extent that it makes Grand County
more appealing to tourists. Local government control will be moderate.
Second home developments (middle to high income) will be encouraged,
campgrounds and boating areas will also be developed. Tourists will be
encouraged to visit Grand County for a day or a month. The Three Lakes
area will be developed as a high density, activity-oriented area.
If this future is pursued, an additional 2,016 jobs would be created by
1990. The population of the County will increase by 1,000 residents by
1980 and 4,100 by 1990. These people and their developments would need
about 544 acres in Granby, 407 in Grand Lake, 59 in Fraser, 347 in Hot
Sulphur Springs, and 307 in Kremmling.
FUTURE 4: PRESERVATION
Emphasis in planning will be placed on the natural environment. The
goal is to maintain and enhance, where possible, to the greatest degree
possible, wildlife, open space, and aesthetic qualities of the County.
Developments which rapidly expand population or change the present
character of the area will be discouraged. Agricultural land would be
maintained for agriculture and open space. Strong local governmental
controls are necessary to reach this future, with development and eco-
nomic opportunities being sacrificed to maintain the natural development.
The results of such a policy would be slow growth of the County. In
1990 there would be about 600 more jobs than there are today. The
total population would increase from 6,347 in 1975 to 6,646 in 1980 and
7,586 in 1990. The land needs for development would be 103 acres in
Grand Lake, 144 in Granby, 13 in Fraser, 98 in Hot Sulphur Springs,
and 68 in Kremmling.
FUTURE 5: TOURISM/INDUSTRY-MODERATE DEVELOPMENT
This future emphasizes both the County's tourist and industrial bases.
Fairly strong local governmental controls would be needed to preserve
the tourist qualities of the area while still providing for industrial
opportunities. Therefore, air and water pollution, open space, scenic
and transporation controls would all be important. This future would
be difficult to reach because it calls for growth in sectors which
are often conflicting. Moderate development of ski facilities and
other winter sports would be encouraged. There would be controlled
growth of summer recreation opportunities, particularly in the Three
Lakes and Fraser River areas.
With this future, total employment in the County would reach 6,875 by
1990, an increase from 1975 of 3,926 jobs. In 1990, the County popu-
lation would have increased by 7,923. The acreage needed for these
people and developments would be 803 in Grand Lake, 1,106 in Granby,
140 in Fraser, 601 in Hot Sulphur Springs, and 660 in Kremmling.
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A second part of the survey included questions similar to the first survey
in which attributes of the County were rated according to how they add to
or detract from the desirability of living in the County. The second por-
tion of the survey served as a reliability check and is not included in this
analysis. The questionnaire concluded with a number of demographic questions.
The survey was sent to a sample of 300 residents chosen randomly from
the latest voter registration lists. The questionnaires were coded numeri-
cally on the last page in order to identify the respondent. A letter
accompanying the survey noted that grouped responses would be made public
but that individual answers would be kept anonymous. A return envelope was
provided. After a week and one-half, a letter requesting the return of the
survey was sent. In approximately another week and one-half, another
reminder, questionnaire and return envelope were sent to those people still
not replying.
Results
A total of 184 persons or 67 percent of those sampled returned the
questionnaire (26 questionnaires were undeliverable). Table 20 lists the
number and percent of surveys returned by area.
Table 20. Survey response results.
Number
Number
Town
Sent
Returned
Percent
Grand Lake
40
29
73
Fraser
51
37
73
Granby
78
48
62
Kremmli ng
73
48
66
Hot Sulphur Springs
32
20
63
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As mentioned previously, the primary purpose of the questionnaire was to
have the respondents choose the future which could ultimately provide the
basis or goal orientation for a land use plan. Table 21 summarizes the
results of the first part of the survey in which the people were asked to
check the words that best described their feelings about each particular
future. It can be seen from these calculations that 75 percent of the
respondents favored, in varying degrees, the Preservation/Tourism future.
Similarly, 61 percent favored the Preservation future. Conversely, only 27
percent favored the High Development Industry alternative. The remaining
two futures more closely resembled a normal distribution of responses.
In order to avoid inconclusive data, those surveyed were asked not only
to describe how they felt about each individual future, but also to rank
these same futures in relation to one another. Table 22 illustrates the
results of this ranking procedure. In accordance with the results of the
previous table, Preservation/Tourism was ranked either first or second 62
percent of the time. The Preservation alternative was the next most favored,
with 47 percent of the respondents giving it a rank order of two or better.
As would be expected, the High Development Industry future was ranked last by
40 percent and fourth by 23 percent. Again, the remaining two futures did
not yield such skewed responses, although High Development Tourism was ranked
lower slightly more often than Tourism/Industry.
One of the weaknesses of an alternative future approach is that there
are bound to be certain aspects of a future which one will like and others
that he will dislike. Consequently, five major components of the futures
were extracted so that they too could be rank ordered. By utilizing such
a procedure, it was then possible to abstract those components of the futures
which were desired and plan for them accordingly, while at the same time
eliminating those things which elicited negative responses. It should be
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Table 21. Ratings of five alternative futures.
Response
Preservation/
Tourism
# °f
ft 10
High Development
Industry
# %
High Development
Tourism
# %
Preservation
# %
Tourism/
Industry
# %
Strongly Favor
39
21
15
8
18
10
46
25
17
9
Favor
58
32
19
10
24
13
42
23
30
16
Somewhat Favor
40
22
17
9
28
15
24
13
30
16
Neutral
6
3
9
5
13
7
20
11
21
11
Somewhat Oppose
15
8
15
8
20
11
13
7
25
14
Oppose
10
5
42
23
34
19
15
8
41
22
Strongly Oppose
14
8
65
36
45
25
23
13
19
11
Mean Rating Score
2.92
5.07
4.51
3.28
4.
13
Std. Dev.
1.81
2.09
2.10
2.08
1.
90
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Table 22. Rankings of alternative futures.
Rank Order
Preservation/
Touri sm
# %
High Development
Industry
# %
High Development
Touri sm
# %
Preservation
# %
Tourism/
Industry
# %
1
52
32
22
14
22
14
50
31
15
9
2
48
30
19
12
30
19
25
16
39
24
3
19
12
19
12
36
22
36
22
50
31
4
24
15
37
23
38
24
20
12
42
26
5
18
12
64
40
35
22
30
19
14
9
Mean Rank
2.43
3.63
3.21
2.72
3
02
Std. Dev.
1.37
1.45
1.34
1.48
1
13
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remembered, though, that these rank orders are not absolute indicators of
a person's preferences, but only a comparative measure. For instance, as
was the case in a number of surveys, a person could believe all the components
to be important and rank them all one, or alternatively, they could all be
given a five ranking. Consequently, the results provided in Table 23 should
not be analyzed without giving consideration to other survey results. In
this particular situation, however, the results do coincide with the other
findings. Forty-seven percent of the respondents ranked the Environment
first and 24 percent ranked it second. This is in line with the preference
for the Preservation futures. A perhaps less consistent finding appears in
the low rankings given the population increase category. A possible explana-
tion for this inconsistency is that the residents are also concerned about
the economy and have indicated in the previous survey and interviews that
they are not opposed to population growth per se. What they do not want is
uncontrolled growth that would adversely affect their environment.
Based upon the preceding results, Future 1, Preservation/Tourism, was
selected to guide plan development. The following section identifies a
strategy which could be employed to achieve this goal.
Control and Management of Land Use
Given the preservation/tourism goal which has been selected, the next
decision is to arrive at a plan to achieve that goal. It is not the purpose
of this section of the report to develop a land use plan with appropriate
management tools, but rather to identify some possibilities for plan develop-
ment within the overall carrying capacity based planning process. The
actual tools and techniques utilized by the County in controlling and
managing land use need to be selected by the County. Therefore, below are
some strategies and specific tools which are available to the County.
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Table 23. Rankings of alternative future components.
Rank Order
Population
Increases
# %
Economy
# %
Land
#
Needs
%
Environment
# %
Local Government
Control
# %
1
17
11
36
23
19
12
73
46
13
8
2
18
11
30
19
46
29
38
24
27
17
3
17
11
35
22
42
27
25
16
38
24
4
27
17
48
30
35
22
17
11
31
20
5
79
50
9
6
16
10
5
3
49
31
Mean Rank
3
84
2.
77
2.89
2
.00
3.48
Std. Dev.
1
42
1
26
1
18
1
.16
1 .31
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Strategies
Property is defined in terms of the rights which are held relative to
a property object. In land use terms, property refers to the rights held
relative to the use of land, with land being the specific object of the
rights. Given this concept of land, government (or society) has reserved
to itself a portion of the rights attendant to any land. Society (in the
U.S.) has reserved the right to condemn, police, and tax land. In doing
this, society has stipulated that it is unlawful to take the rights held by
someone else without compensating that individual for his loss. The fifth
amendment to the U.S. Constitution affirms this compensation necessity.
It does not, however, prohibit society from taking rights; it only demands
that the loss be compensated.
While the government has the power to condemn, police, and tax land,
it is unclear as to how much control the government can exert and still avoid
compensation. This is a matter being debated in court, and it will not be
substantively addressed here. However, since the establishment of zoning
ordinances in the 1920's, it appears that government has more regulatory
power than it has exerted. Zoning ordinances based upon density are well
accepted and constitutional. These combined with building permit regulations
and other regulatory permits have been accepted. Taxing land differentially
under "green belt" legislation has been adopted in several states. And,
condemnation is a form of public land acquisition that has been repeatedly
upheld in the courts. Condemnation, of course, requires compensation, but
the compensation is often to a highly reluctant seller.
The strategies which the County has for controlling and managing land
uses are dependent upon the rights which the government has reserved to
itself. There are basically three strategies possible and these can be
operated simultaneously, though one is usually dominant.
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Governmental Spending
The ultimate way to control land use is to own as much of the rights
to a land area as possible. Purchase of property by government is one
strategy for controlling land use. While it is simple to visualize the
control possible through public purchase (through easement or fee simple),
there are three major impediments to implementing this strategy. First,
it is extremely costly and few governments have the resources to make but
a few small purchases. Second, since many governments receive substantial
revenues from property taxes, many purchases remove the financial base
which supported purchases in the first place. Third, management and main-
tenance costs run high and governments must pay these costs like any
other property owner.
There is one other kind of spending power which can be employed to
regulate land use. This is spending on development of infrastructure ele-
ments like roads, police and hospital services. Within the generalized
spending strategy, governments can indirectly control land use through
development or non-development of governmental services.
Condemnation
A strategy closely related to market purchase of property is condemna-
tion. Condemnation is essentially the taking of property by force, for the
public good, and with compensation paid to the previous owner.
For good reasons, governments attempt to avoid condemnation. Often it
precipitates ill-will among the citizenry and leads to political repercus-
sions. Also, it is often somewhat costly while appraisals are made and
courts evaluate what is just compensation. Like market purchases, however,
condemnation does lead to governmental ownership and utlimate control of
land use.
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Police and Taxing Powers
The most common land use control strategy is to utilize police and
taxing powers. For instance, zoning of land by governments is an affirma-
tion of the governments' police powers. Within police powers there are
several specific tools which can be utilized to control land use; some more
publically palatable than others. Most of these, however, rest on some
form of zoning.
Taxing power also enables the control of land use through variable
land taxation and other incentive programs. In these instances, incentives
are provided to either maintain land or put it to certain uses. Different
forms of "green belt" taxation, usually to maintain agricultural and open
space, are a good example of application of taxing powers for regulating
land use.
Selection of a Strategy
While all three of these strategies for controlling land use are
applicable to many governments, including Grand County, they are applied
differentially among many governments. One needs to choose a strategy and
develop it in recognition of legislative, financial, manpower, and temporal
constraints. In most rural areas, like Grand County, some form of the use
of police powers will most likely be the strategy chosen. This is because
these areas have neither the financial resources nor the legal expertise
to develop the other strategies to any but a minimal extent. Also, in
recognition of the land ownership patterns in these rural areas (particularly
in the West) local publics often see additional public ownership of land
as detrimental to their welfare.
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Control Tools
Within each of the strategies there are different tools which can be
employed, and the selection of tools will often be situational. That is,
some tools will fit one area while some fit other areas. It appears that
there are few tools to regulate land use which are universally applicable.
A discussion of some potential tools for land regulation is below.
Traditional Zoning
Zoning has been upheld by the Supreme Court since the 1920's as a
legal extension of local governments' police powers. Traditional zoning
is concerned with the intensity of use per parcel of land. Specifically,
this technique mandates the number of dwelling units to be permitted in a
specific area. Large lot zoning and open space zoning are means by which
the densities of an area can be kept low. One of the more recent innovations
in this category has been the Planned Unit Development. This type of zoning
gives the developer flexibility in designing the site and the exact densities
within the area as long as he meets overall density limits and other
requirements.
Functional Zoning
Functional zoning until recently has generally been applied to such
classifications as Residential, Industrial, and Commercial zones. More
recently, however, and more applicable to nonurban areas, some states and
counties have utilized this tool as a means of phasing or limiting growth
and development in certain areas. For instance, in Buck County, Pennsylvania
a classification scheme was devised that included: (1) Urban Areas where
the development had already occurred; (2) Development Areas where intense
growth pressures were present; (3) Rural Holding Areas composed primarily
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of agricultural land; (4) Resource Protection Areas where it was felt that
development would jeopardize the natural, recreation and historic resources.
A somewhat less restrictive scheme divides the area into development zones.
The purpose of these zones is not to prevent development in general, but to
avoid scattered development. In accordance with this technique, each zone
is designated based upon its readiness for development.
Environmental Zoning
Environmental zoning is dependent on the particular resources of the
area. Flood plains, stream banks, steep slopes, geologic hazards, and
wildlife habitat are examples of the types of areas which come under the
auspices of environmental zoning. Within these zones, development could be
prohibited or merely restricted depending on the particular resource. A
limitation of this technique is that it cannot be utilized without a
reliable resource inventory. HB 1041 in Colorado enables the County to carry
out this type of plan.
Transferable Development Rights
Transferrable Development Rights is the newest zoning technique and
one that has gained considerable attention in the past couple of years.
The purpose of this management tool is to free certain areas from develop-
ment pressures while at the same time protecting the individual landowner's
property rights. In order to accomplish' these dual objectives, each
property owner is given a certain number of "development rights." Simul-
taneously, a master plan is developed which denotes the different zoning
classifications and the number of development rights needed within each zone
as a prerequisite for development. Before a developer can build on a piece
of land, however, he must possess all the rights required for a designated
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use. Consequently, he must purchase rights from other land holders in order
to obtain the necessary number. The logical owners to sell their rights are
those in the agricultural or conservation zones who cannot themselves build
on their land. This technique is thus viewed as a means of controlling
growth while at the same time including all citizens in the prosperity that
comes with growth. It is a way to compensate those who cannot, because of
zoning, develop their land while controlled development takes place.
Permit Systems
As mandated by HB 1034 in Colorado, the counties are given the power
to establish land use plans. Utilizing these powers, it is possible for
the county to set up a permit system, whereby a developer must obtain a
permit before he is allowed to build on a particular site. Permit require-
ments would vary according to the type of project and according to the land
itself. For instance, one would have to meet more stringent requirements
such as architectural design, lot size, etc. in a recreation area as compared
to an urban area. Development codes could be established for different
development or different zones if they are applicable. SB 35 already neces-
sitates that certain regulations must be established by the counties regard-
ing subdivision development. The permit system would be an extension of
this enabling legislation. The advantage of such a system is that the
developer is aware of his obligations at the outset of the project.
Utility and Service Control
Utilities and services are a tool for land use planning. Moritoriums
on utility extensions can be established for an interim period giving a
government additional time to adjust or implement its plan. A more permanent
technique is to initiate an Urban Service Boundary or "blue line" as was done
for the Salem, Oregon area. This line becomes a physical limit to the
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extension of public services and/or utilities. The boundary, however, must
be rationalized according to discrete sociological, economic, and physical
factors in order for it to be a legal extension of a government's police
powers. Regulation of utilities extensions does not necessarily lead to no
growth; rather it is used to control growth into desirable areas or at a
manageable pace.
Market Purchase and Easements
The most direct means of land use control is simply to purchase the
property. By acquiring the rights to use of the land, governments can con-
trol the land's development and also often influence the use of adjacent
land. Boulder, Colorado has had a continuing program whereby the city
purchases the land deemed necessary for parks and open space. Money for
purchase is acquired through the city's sale tax. A more recent concept
utilized by local governments is land banking. This concept calls for the
establishment of land banks which in turn acquire and hold land as a means
of controlling its future use. In order for the bank to be effective, it
must 1) be granted public corporation status, 2) have the power to condemn
land and purchase property, and 3) be financially able to pursue its goals.
Purchase of easements (and leases) also leads to direct land use control.
This method enables a government to purchase wanted rights while leaving
some rights in private ownership. It is often far less costly than outright
purchase. An advantage of this system is that possession remains with the
landowner allowing him to reside on the land. For the granting of an ease-
ment, he may also receive a tax advantage. In the government's favor are
the facts that the expense of maintaining the land remains with the landowner
and the land remains on the tax rolls.
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A Possible Program
Of the possible implementation controls previously described, only four
of them are recommended for Grand County, These four controls can be uti-
lized as the means to achive the desired goal of Preservation/Tourism.
The first step is to designate Functional Zones, i.e., preservation,
commercial, tourist, residential. Within these zones, Environmental Preser-
vation Areas could be established where especially sensitive or hazardous
lands exist. In combination with this zoning scheme, a Permit System should
be devised which would specify particular development requirements for each
zone. Finally, the County could regulate the utility and service component,
e.g., road extensions, in order to pace development or direct it into specific
zones.
As noted previously, these implementation tools are not the only ones
available to the County. Traditional or density zoning could become a part
of the implementation plan. Market purchase and easements are also possibili-
ties, but ones that would necessitate considerable capital investment.
Transferrable development rights have gained considerable attention, but they
are more applicable to goals other than Preservation/Tourism and to areas
feeling greater development pressures. Considering the stated objective
of Preservation/Tourism and the financial status of the County, Functional
Zoning, Environmental Zoning, Utility and Service Control, and a Permit
System could effectively be integrated into an implementation plan: A
plan designed to achieve the specified goal.
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EVALUATION OF THE PROCESS
The aim of this project was to test a carrying capacity based planning
process for its usefulness in comprehensive mountain land planning. It is
important to remember that this was the test of a process and not development
of a plan. To test the process, two objectives were articulated for the
project.
1. To employ a carrying capacity based process in an analysis
of the future of Grand County, Colorado.
2. To evaluate the employment of the carrying capacity based
planning process for its effectiveness and efficiency.
This final section of the project report deals with the second objective;
the first objective having been met by the material presented in previous
sections of the project report. Here the carrying capacity based process
utilized is reviewed and its costs, workability, and acceptability is
assessed.
Derivation of an area's carrying capacity rests on specification of an
explicit "quality of life" objective and on the physical capability of the
natural and man-made systems. Modifying either the objective or the physical
systems means a change in carrying capacity. Hence, there is not one,
absolute carrying capacity for an area. Rather, for one specific objective
and physical system structure there is one carrying capacity.
The process utilized in this study recognized this variable condition
of carrying capacity and thus emphasized delineating an objective for Grand
County and identifying the natural and man-made system capacity constraints.
Most of the study focused on these two elements of carrying capacity analysis.
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Given the task of delineating an objective to be met by the implemen-
tation of a plan, the carrying capacity based planning process utilized in
the Grand County study began with an inventory of several elements. The
present economic situation, environmental resources, population structure
and behavior, infrastructure elements, public desires, and exogenous growth
forces were inventoried and evaluated for their effects on the future.
Through a process of scenario development and subsequently scenario quanti-
fication, possible alternative futures for the County were developed. The
impacts of these futures on the environmental resources, economic, population,
and infrastructure sub-systems were assessed. These alternatives and their
impacts were presented through a survey to the County's population and a
majority preferred alternative was chosen as the County planning objective
(for the purpose of this project). From this point, possible plan strategies
and land use control tools were discussed and recommendations made for plan
development. The project was not carried through either formal plan develop-
ment or implementation phases as those aspects were beyond the project
responsibilities and are direct functions of the County. An evaluation of
the project process follows.
Cost
Two costs for the process as outlined in the preceding report sections
are given. First, the actual cost of the process as undertaken by the
Regional Resource Planning Program at Colorado State University is estimated.
This cost reflects the utilization of graduate and undergraduate students
working for stipends and low wages and utilization of capital facilities and
equipment not wholly charged to the specific project. Second, an estimate
of costs which would be incurred if the work was undertaken outside the
University is made. These costs more completely recognize the real process
implementation costs than do the first set of cost estimates.
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Actual Study Costs
Professional Salary $ 15,000
Graduate Assistants* 25,600
Labor* 3,850
Secretarial Services 2,750
Benefits (*no benefits) 1,900
Overhead (64 percent) 30,200
Subtotal 79,300
Materials and Supplies 1,500
Computer 1,500
Travel 3,200
Printing - Duplicating 1,500
Lodging and Office Space (on-site) -0-
Subtotal 7,700
Total 87,000
Estimated Outside University Cost
Professional Salary 15,000
Technician Salary 51,200
Labor 5,000
Secretarial Services 3,000
Benefits 7,200
Overhead (64 percent) 47,500
Subtotal 128,900
Materials and Supplies 1,500
Computer 2,000
Travel 3,200
Printing - Duplicating 1,500
Lodging and Office Space (on-site) 2,000
Subtotal 10,200
Total 139,100
Both cost estimates indicate that implementation of the process (in about a
15-month time period) is costly relative to a county planning budget. The
estimated cost for such a study produced by a county itself or through a con-
sultant is 60 percent higher than the study cost produced through the Univer-
sity. The cost difference is primarily due to the cost of technician services
provided in the University at low wages by graduate students and the benefit
and overhead costs which automatically increase with these personnel costs.
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In terms of the practicability of implementing this process in mountain
counties in the West, one should be skeptical. The costs are excessive for
most county planning budgets over a one to two year time frame. Extending
the time would mean loss of data due to its becoming outdated resulting in
the inability to integrate the components of the process.
From a cost standpoint, the process is not completely impractical,
however. Key components of the process can be implemented and useful infor-
mation for planning provided. For instance, both the economic system and
population system components of the process are relatively inexpensive and
can be utilized in a short time frame. If a county already has an environ-
mental resources inventory, these components can be combined with the
inventory to produce a much more complete data base for objective setting
and plan development. Another approach to overcoming the cost limitations
of the process is to combine funds from several sources. For instance,
county planning funds, state planning funds (e.g., Colorado P.L. 1041),
and federal planning funds (e.g., EPA Water Quality Planning) could be com-
bined to cover the costs. These two solutions to the cost problem suggest
that the process can be implemented at the county level under some joint
funding arrangements.
Workability
Apart from cost considerations, is the process workable? Does it achieve
the objectives of providing a comprehensive base of information to enable cal-
culation of carrying capacity, selection of a planning objective, and develop-
ment of a land use plan? Even if it achieves these objectives, is the process
a good one to use? These are tough criteria for any planning process to meet.
A carrying capacity based process demands a holistic approach to informa-
tion collection and analysis. A full information base is necessary to enable
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carrying capacity calculation. Therefore, the process must meet its objec-
tives or else it is not truly carrying capacity based. As articulated,
the process utilized in this study enables carrying capacity calculation,
objective setting, and plan development.
In terms of its operation the process requires several specialists
representing many different fields. Specialists are needed in numerous
environmental resource fields, survey research, regional economics, demog-
raphy, infrastructure analysis, and land use control. Many of these roles
can be filled by some county planning staffs while other counties are void
of most of these skills. What this suggests is the necessity to contract
for much of the needed expertise.
Another workability problem is the logisitics of carrying out such a
broadly based process. While the completion of this project indicates that
the logistical problems can be overcome, they are quite extensive. The
project involved moving people and equipment between Fort Collins, Grand
County, and Denver (where many federal regional offices are located). The
logistics problems would have been a much greater problem if the Division
of Wildlife had not provided temporary living quarters and the State Forest
Service had not provided office space in the town of Grand Lake.
Finally, the process utilized could not be carried out without intensive
cooperation by federal, state, and local agencies as well as by the citizens
of Grand County. Data must be obtained from all these sources and, at times,
it is necessary to borrow personnel from the organizations to collect new
data or interpret data for specific purposes.
To sum up the workability of the process tested in this project, it
appears that the process meets its objectives but presents some problems
in smoothness of operation. There are personnel, logistics, and cooperation
problems which any user should consider before utilizing the process.
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Acceptabi1i ty
Acceptability of the process, to both users and the public, is difficult
to evaluate since the process was carried out by an "outside" organization
and not formally implemented by the County planning office. However, there
are some attributes of the process which one can use to evaluate acceptability.
Some criteria for acceptability to its users might be ease of implemen-
tation, cost, generation of relevant information, and maintenance of decision
making perogatives. To general publics the process would likely be acceptable
if it allows substantive public input into planning decisions and is not
deemed excessively costly.
Both ease of implementation and cost have been covered in previous sec-
tions. There can be little question that the process leads to generation of
information relevant to land use decisions, if it is acknowledged that a
comprehensive data base is desirable for land use decisions. The process has
the attribute of requiring production of information on many factors which
influence land use planning. The process, as implemented, also leaves
decision making in the hands of responsible elected or appointed officials.
In no way is the process a substitute for decision making, rather it is used
to provide a comprehensive data base useful for land use decisions.
From a public standpoint the process has several desirable attributes.
Most important of these is the heavy reliance on public involvement in the
process. Whether one uses surveys or public meetings to obtain public
desires, those desires are an integral part of the process. A second impor-
tant attribute of the process is its transparency. That is, all steps in
the process are open to view by interested publics. There is no "black box"
decision making and all assumptions and analytical procedures of the process
can be easily articulated; the process is open to public scrutiny.
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While not all aspects of acceptability of the process are entirely
favorable (e.g., cost may be a problem in some instances), as a general
process of data collection and analysis for comprehensive land use planning,
it has many desirable attributes. One would expect that if the process was
carefully implemented, it would be highly acceptable to both the user and
the general public,
Conclusion
A carrying capacity based planning process, as utilized in this study,
is quite useful in land use planning. It has the desirable attribute of
focusing on setting planning objectives and specification of natural and
physical system capacities. Whether or not an actual capacity is calculated
for any area is relatively unimportant, but collection of the data necessary
to make such a calculation means the data necessary for comprehensive land
use planning are available,
While the land use planning process described in this report is not
new in its molar aspects, all of the parts are integrated into a comprehen-
sive process. This integration is a primary output of the Grand County
study. Linkages have been made between environmental resource, economic,
population, infrastructure, and public preference analyses. This has
enabled the use of the process as a comprehensive process, or use of its
individual modules which can be linked tyith other modules.
A final conclusion about the land use planning process utilized in
the Grand County study is that it can be used to identify planning data gaps,
political issues, and cost factors. Because it is a relatively holistic
process, implementation of the process can lead to identification of signifi-
cant data gaps; where data are needed to fully implement this process and
develop land use plans. The process also leads to identification of
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political issues by both soliciting public land use preferences and identi-
fying the status of critical resources related to these preferences.
Finally, the process leads to development of cost estimates for government
services and is thus useful in estimating the impacts which a government
would sustain by choosing a particular alternative.
The overall conclusion from this study of the utilization of a
carrying capacity based land use planning process in Grand County, Colorado
is that the process has a great deal of promise. It needs further refine-
ment, but has proven to be a useful approach to the generation of land use
planning information.
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