United States Policy, Planning, EPA-230-05-89-060
Environmental Protection And Evaluation June 1989
Agency (PM-221)
vvEPA The Potential Effects
Of Global Climate Change
On The United States
Appendix J
Policy
Printed on Recycled Paper
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THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ON THE UNITED STATES:
APPENDIX J - POLICY
Editors: Joel B. Smith and Dennis A. Tirpak
DATE DUE
OFFICE OF POLICY, PLANNING AND EVALUATION
US. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, DC 20460
MAY 1989
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE iii
SOCIETAL RESPONSES TO REGIONAL CLIMATE
CHANGE: FORECASTING BY ANALOGY 1-1
Michael H. Glantz, Barbara G. Brown, and Maria E. Krenz
CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTIONS AMONG NATURAL RESOURCE DECISION-MAKERS:
THE CASE OF WATER SUPPLY MANAGERS 2-1
William E. Riebsame
APPLICABILITY OF FEDERAL LONG-RANGE PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT STATEMENT PROCESSES TO
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES 3-1
Malcolm Forbes Baldwin
CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN
REGION OF CALIFORNIA: POLICY ADJUSTMENT OPTIONS 4-1
William E. Riebsame and Jeffrey W. Jacobs
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE GREAT LAKES: THE
IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS 5-1
Daniel K. Ray, Kurt N. Lindland, and William J. Brah
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UPON
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY RESERVOIR SYSTEM
APALACHICOLA RIVER, ESTUARY, AND BAY AND SOUTH FLORIDA 6-1
Mark Meo, Thomas E. James, Jr., Steve Ballard, Lani L. Malysa,
Robert E. Deyle, and Laura A. Wilson
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PREFACE
The ecological and economic implications of the greenhouse effect have been the subject of discussion within
the scientific community for the past three decades. In recent years, members of Congress have held hearings
on the greenhouse effect and have begun to examine its implications for public policy. This interest was
accentuated during a series of hearings held in June 1986 by the Subcommittee on Pollution of the Senate
Environment and Public Works Committee. Following the hearings, committee members sent a formal request
to the EPA Administrator, asking the Agency to undertake two studies on climate change due to the greenhouse
effect.
One of the studies we are requesting should gamine the potential health and environmental
effects of climate change. This study should include, but not be limited to, the potential impacts
on agriculture, forests, wetlands, human health, rivers, lakes, and estuaries, as well as other
ecosystems and societal impacts. This study should be designed to include original analyses, to
identify and fill in where important research gaps exist, and to solicit the opinions of
knowledgeable people throughout the country through a process of public hearings and
meetings.
To meet this request, EPA produced the report entitled The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the
Untied. States. For that report, EPA commissioned fifty-five studies by academic and government scientists on
the potential effects of global climate change. Each study was reviewed by at least two peer reviewers. The
Effects Report summarizes the results of all of those studies. The complete results of each study are contained
in Appendices A through J.
Appendix Subject
A
Water Resources
B
Sea Level Rise
C
Agriculture
D
Forests
E
Aquatic Resources
F
Air Quality
G
Health
H
Infrastructure
I
Variability
J
Policy
GOAL
The goal of the Effects Report was to try to give a sense of the possible direction of changes from a global
warming as well as a sense of the magnitude. Specifically, we examined the following issues:
o sensitivities of systems to changes in climate (since we cannot predict regional climate change, we
can only identify sensitivities to changes in climate factors)
o the range of effects under different warming scenarios
o regional differences among effects
o interactions among effects on a regional level
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o national effects
o uncertainties
o policy implications
o research needs
The four regions chosen for the studies were California, the Great Lakes, the Southeast, and the Great Plains.
Many studies focused on impacts in a single region, while others examined potential impacts on a national scale.
SCENARIOS USED FOR THE EFFECTS REPORT STUDIES
The Effects Report studies used several scenarios to examine the sensitivities of various systems to changes in
climate. The scenarios used are plausible sets of circumstances although none of them should be considered to
be predictions of regional climate change. The most common scenario used was the doubled C02 scenario
(2XC02), which examined the effects of climate under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
This doubling is estimated to raise average global temperatures by 1.5 to 4.5°C by the latter half of the 21st
century. Transient scenarios, which estimate how climate may change over time in response to a steady increase
in greenhouse gases, were also used. In addition, analog scenarios of past warm periods, such as the 1930s, were
used.
The scenarios combined average monthly climate change estimates for regional grid boxes from General
Circulation Models (GCMs) with 1951-80 climate observations from sites in the respective grid boxes. GCMs
are dynamic models that simulate the physical processes of the atmosphere and oceans to estimate global climate
under different conditions, such as increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., 2XC02).
The scenarios and GCMs used in the studies have certain limitations. The scenarios used for the studies assume
that temporal and spatial variability do not change from current conditions. The first of two major limitations
related to the GCMs is their low spatial resolution. GCMs use rather large grid boxes where climate is averaged
for the whole grid box, while in fact climate may be quite variable within a grid box. The second limitation is
the simplified way that GCMs treat physical factors such as clouds, oceans, albedo, and land surface hydrology.
Because of these limitations, GCMs often disagree with each other on estimates of regional climate change (as
well as the magnitude of global changes) and should not be considered to be predictions.
To obtain a range of scenarios, EPA asked the researchers to use output from the following GCMs:
o Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
o Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
o Oregon State University (OSU)
Figure 1 shows the temperature change from current climate to a climate with a doubling of C02 levels, as
modeled by the three GCMs. The figure includes the GCM estimates for the four regions. Precipitation
changes are shown in Figure 2. Note the disagreement in the GCM estimates concerning the direction of
change of regional and seasonal precipitation and the agreement concerning increasing temperatures.
Two transient scenarios from the GISS model were also used, and the average decadal temperature changes
are shown in Figure 3.
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FIGURE 1. TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS
GCM Estimated Change in Temperature from IXCO2 to 2xCC>2
8
Great Southeast Great California United
Lakes Plains States*
Great Southeast Great California United
Lakes Plains States*
6-
4-
O1
SUMMER
Great Southeast Great California United
Lakes Plains States*
W
GISS
GFDL
OSU
* Lower 48 States
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FIGURE 2. PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS
GCM Estimated Change in Precipitation from 1xC02 to 2xC02
1.0
>-
00
0
<
0.6-
Q
CO
DC
0.4-
LU
h
r —
CM
O
LU
2
0.0-
_j
-0.2
2
-0.4
-0 6
SUMMER
1
n
Great Southeast Great California United
Lakes Plains States*
Southeast Great California United
Plains States*
Great Southeast Great California United
Lakes Plains States*
m
GISS
GFDL
OSU
* Lower 48 States
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4
3.5
3
o
UJ
2.5
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EPA specified that researchers were to use three doubled CO-scenarios, two transient scenarios, and an analog
scenario in their studies. Many researchers, however, did not nave sufficient time or resources to use all of the
scenarios. EPA asked the researchers to run the scenarios in the following order, going as far through the list
as time and resources allowed:
1. GISS doubled C02
2. GFDL doubled C02
3. GISS transient A
4. OSU doubled C02
5. Analog (1930 to 1939)
6. GISS transient B
ABOUT THESE APPENDICES
The studies contained in these appendices appear in the form that the researchers submitted them to EPA.
These reports do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Mention of trade names does not constitute an endorsement.
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SOCIETAL RESPONSES TO REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE:
FORECASTING BY ANALOGY
by
Michael H. Glantz
Barbara G. Brown
and
Maria E. Krenz
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307
Interagency Agreement No. DW 49932663-01-0
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CONTENTS
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1-1
GENERAL FINDINGS 1-3
GLIMPSING THE FUTURE 1-5
STATISTICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT 1-6
DEPLETION OF THE OGALLALA AQUIFER 1-6
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND WATER RESOURCES IN A CALIFORNIA
RIVER BASIN 1-7
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE COLORADO RIVER COMPACT 1-7
SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL SUBSIDENCE IN LOUISIANA 1-8
CHANGES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM 1-9
RISE IN THE LEVEL OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE 1-9
CHANGING* LEVELS IN THE GREAT LAKES 1-10
INSTITUTIONAL AND PRIVATE SECTOR RESPONSES TO FLORIDA
FREEZES 1-10
WATER SHORTAGES IN THE METROPOLITAN NORTHERN VIRGINIA 1-11
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Glantz
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This project was undertaken in an attempt to determine potential societal responses to the regional
impacts of a carbon dioxide/trace gases-induced global warming by identifying several regional scenarios based
on actual, prolonged, outlying climatic events that have occurred in recent times and by investigating the impacts
of those events and the societal responses to these impacts. This approach is based on the assumption that the
observed societal responses to impacts of several of these events could serve as analogues for an improved
understanding of the possible societal responses to impacts that might be associated with a global warming of
the atmosphere. This assessment can identify rigidities and strengths that may exist in the way society copes with
the impacts of extreme (possibly unusual) events and may help to assess society's ability to deal with future
unforeseeable climate-related anomalies, including extreme meteorological events.
The list of climate-related events that might serve as analogues and provide input for scenario
construction includes the following: the depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer, changes in streamflow in the
Sacramento and Colorado River Basins, sea level rise and coastal subsidence in Louisiana, changes in the
Mississippi River system, changing levels of the Great Salt Lake and the Great Lakes, a set of nearly consecutive
annual freezes in Florida, and water shortages in a metropolitan area in northern Virginia.
There has been considerable speculation about what the warming of the atmosphere by several degrees
Celsius will do to regional climate and to human activities presently attuned to that climate. The basis for that
speculation (and that is all it is at present) comes from general circulation model (GCM) output as a result of
sensitivity studies associated with a CO^ doubling. It has also come from historical analogues such as the
Medieval Optimum that occurred earlier m this millenium. Other climate analogues include the Altithermal as
well as epochs tens of thousands of years ago when the earth's atmosphere was much warmer than it is at
present.
The GCMs are better at dealing with temperature than they are with rainfall.
Although the outputs from the various GCMs do not necessarily agree with each other on temperature,
they do fall within a well-defined range. There is considerable disagreement as to how a global average warming
might translate into climate changes at the regional and local levels. This, however, has not hindered speculation
about regional and local climate changes and their socioeconomic impacts.
GCM-generated scenarios have a considerable amount of scientific credibility in the non-scientific
community, including policymakers. However, some potential changes in climate several decades into the future
that are being suggested from the scientific community are beyond the scope of experience (and possibly
education) of decisionmakers. Thus, they lack political and social credibility and this leads to a real problem for
decisionmakers. Either decisionmakers accept them unquestioningly as the product of an objective scientific
community that lays all its information on the table, including questions of uncertainty and perhaps even
dissenting views, or they disregard them as speculative ventures of scientists.
Scenarios about future worlds based on human experience-analogies or case scenarios-have the political
and social credibility that computer-generated scenarios lack. Decisionmakers who have been directly involved
in problems generated by climatic anomalies in the recent past have already been using that experience as a guide
to dealing with current issues. Such experience is being passed on to prospective decisionmakers through
education, just as the experiences of the Thirties Great Plains drought have been carried from one generation
to tt^.next. Yet, when compared to scientific models, the experience-based scenarios seem to Jack scientific
credibility. They are often discounted with such statements as "the past is no guide to the future." This adage
has been reinforced by the view that, with a changing climate, the past will not be representative of the future.
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Glantz
The purpose of looking back is to determine how flexible (or rigid) societies are or have been in dealing
with climate-related environmental changes. Societies everywhere have already shown the propensity to prepare
for the last climate anomaly by which they were affected. However, such anomalies seldom seem to recur in the
same place, with the same intensity, or with the same societal impacts. We must be aware of past events but we
must not get drawn into preparing for them. Our decisions today must take into consideration the need to
maintain as much flexibility as practicable in the face of future unknowns.
Both approaches (modeling and contemporary analogies) have their good points and their shortcomings
in producing scenarios. It is important that they both be taken into consideration at the same time in order to
maintain an air of reality about discussions of future climate change. Either set of scenarios considered by itself
can be misleading; focusing on one particular scenario of the future would most likely lead to very different
policy responses from those involving a focus on a different but equally plausible scenario. We must find a way
to combine the strengths of the two approaches.
Forecasting the future by analogy can be a fruitful approach to improve our understanding of how well
society is prepared to cope with the presently unknown regional characteristics of a potential climate change some
decades in the future. However, we must not expect analogies to tell us what that future will be. No forecasting
system has been successful in that endeavor. Analogies can, however, help us to identify societal strengths and
weaknesses in coping with extreme meteorological events so that we can reinforce those strengths and reduce
the weaknesses.
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Glantz
GENERAL FINDINGS1
These general findings serve to highlight some of the key points made in the papers that have been
prepared for the ESIG/EPA Regional Scenarios Project. In the next section of the executive summary each
research paper and its findings has been summarized. These case studies and their executive summaries provide
the richness of information on responses to climate-related environmental changes that occur at the local and
regional levels.
Because we are concerned about the local and regioilal effects of and responses to a global climate
change, there will be a need at the outset to identify how well societies have in the past dealt with local climate-
related environmental changes, regardless of cause. In order to add to the body of knowledge about societal
responses to possible global climate change, it is important to know what that body looks like with respect to
responses to climate variability and to extreme meteorological events.
These case studies underscore the importance of the involvement of the local and state levels of
government in climate-related environmental problems. These are the levels at which such changes will
ultimately occur. These are the levels at which societies will most likely respond, at least initially.
The importance of the local nature of societal impacts and responses to those impacts also underscores
the need to generate awareness among decisionmakers at that level about what a global warming might mean
to the expected continuance of their present-day activities.
There is a problem in some instances with conflicting signals. While the Great Salt Lake and the Great
Lakes levels are now at or near record-setting levels, the scientific community suggests that with a global
warming the levels of those lakes should decline. How credible can alarms about a global warming be to
decisionmakers at the local level, when environmental changes at that level are seemingly contradictory to
scientific projections about what should be happening?
In each case study a catalyst prompted action by people and their governments. In the case of
Louisiana sea level rise/coastal subsidence the catalyst was not the gradual rise in sea level or the gradual pace
of coastal erosion. It was the realization that two Louisiana parishes (counties) would most likely be underwater
in about a century. In the Great Salt Lake situation that catalyst was not a gradual rise in lake level (which had
been occurring since the early 1960s) but the sharp annual increases in lake level since 1982.
Each case study raised the issue of intergenerational equity. For example, several of the GCM models
have suggested that there will be a "drying out" of the Great Plains in the event of a global warming. Users of
the water from the Ogallala Aquifer must decide at what rate to drawdown the aquifer today (to produce crops
that are in surplus and that demand low prices) or whether to save finite water supply for use by future
generations in those parts of the region overlying the aquifer where recharge rates are low.
In all of these cases ad hoc responses were favored over longer term planned responses. As a result,
there has been a tendency to "muddle through." This has not necessarily been a bad response but it is probably
more costly in the long run than putting a long-term strategy together in order to cope with climate-related
environmental changes.
Several of these cases show that ad hoc decisions made in response to an environmental change have
often built into the existing social structures an additional degree of rigidity that would in the long-term decrease
society's ability to respond to changes.
Although the information in this report has been funded wholly or partly by the UJS. Environmental
Protection Agency under Interagency Agreement No. DW 49932663-01-0, it does not necessarily reflect the
Agency's views, and no official endorsement should be inferred from it.
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Glantz
The Florida case study points out that climate variability can adversely affect the economic
competitiveness of climate-dependent industries. Such severe freezes as Florida witnessed in 1962 and in the
early 1980s served as catalysts to accelerate economic and social changes at the local level, changes that may
already have been under way but at much slower rates.
Coalition-building is an important part of creating an awareness of as well as coping with a climate-
related problem. The Louisiana case study provides an excellent example of how a few concerned individuals
in a parish were able to develop broader statewide interest in a set of problems that seemingly threatened only
local populations and local political units. Coalition-building in Louisiana provides an interesting example to
other states (such as Florida) that also face a variety of climate-related environmental problems.
Societies are constantly changing and they will continue to do so regardless of whether the global climate
changes. It is important to take societal changes into account when considering societal responses to the impacts
of climate variability, climate change, and extreme meteorological events.
It has been argued in the climate change literature either (1) that everyone will lose if the climate
changes and therefore we should act now, or (2) that we must wait to identify what the regional impacts of such
a change might be before we proceed to make policy to deal with climate change. The Colorado River study
suggests, however, that even when the winners and losers have been identified there will be little interest on the
part of the winners to alter their status in order to compensate the losers.
The following section presents a brief description and some of the key findings in an executive summary
format of the case studies prepared for the ESIG/EPA project. The findings presented in the executive
summary are based on the case studies carried out by the following scientists:
Regional Scenario Construction
Statistics of Climate Change
Ogallala Aquifer Depletion
Sacramento River Basin
Colorado River Compact
Dale Jamieson
Philosophy Dept.
University of Colorado
Richard Katz
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
NCAR
Donald Wilhite
Center for Agricultural Climatology and Meteorology
University of Nebraska
Peter Gleick
Energy & Resources Group
University of California-Berkeley
Barbara Brown
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
NCAR
Sea Level Rise and Coastal
Subsidence
Mississippi River Navigation
Mark Meo
Science & Public Policy Program
University of Oklahoma
William Koe liner
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Rock Island District
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Glantz
The Great Salt Lake
Peter Morrisette
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
NCAR
The North American
Great Lakes
Stewart Cohen
Canadaian Climate Centre
Downsview, Ontario
Florida Freezes
Kathleen Miller
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
NCAR
The 1977 Occoquan Drought Daniel Sheer
Water Resources Management
Columbia, Maryland
GLIMPSING THE FUTURE
Scenarios are one way of attempting to get a look at the future; numerical models are another way.
Scenarios also include analogies. These can be referred to as case scenarios. They provide a way of "telling the
story" about the future that model-generated scenarios cannot provide. Certain dangers are associated with the
use of analogy-based scenarios, including stretching an analogy too far or selecting an analogy that is
inappropriate. Appropriate use of scenarios can provide useful "stories" about the future and about how human
populations respond to variations in environmental conditions.
If global warming is now occurring, it is not just something that is happening to people: People are
implicated in bringing it about. In response to global warming, we can expect various modulations of human
behavior. These modulations will in turn affect atmospheric conditions which in turn will affect human behavior,
and so on. One consequence of this feedback between human behavior and atmospheric conditions is that in
order to answer our question-how are humans likely to respond to environmental changes at the regional level
brought about by a carbon dioxide/trace-gases induced global warming—we must gain insight into the
interactions between climate and behavior.
The notion of a scenario is widely used in the climatology literature. Unfortunately, it is often used in
vague and misleading ways. The concept of a scenario is a rich one and of great utility in a number of different
areas of investigation.
Scenarios are sketches or outlines of stories rather than abstract sets of statements or propositions. They
are constructed in order to serve some purpose, and they are told from a point of view. They bring together
diverse information and engage our imagination about a natural or expected course of events. They are neither
predictions nor fantasies; they are plausible stories.
Good analogical reasoning does not concern the number of similarities two objects share, but rather the
significance of the important similarities. Identifying important similarities involves pragmatic considerations
regarding contexts, interests, and purposes. These considerations cannot be taken up in any purely structural
account.
There are four advantages of the case scenario approach: wealth of detail, integration of a broad range
of knowledge, multiplicity of perspectives, and communicability and usability. There are, however, dangers to
be avoided when using the case scenario approach: lack of definition, straining an analogy, and failure of
analogy.
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Glantz
STATISTICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
The nature of the information about future climate that would be needed for societal impact studies is
considered. Keeping these needs in mind, the adequacy of the output from climate experiments based on general
circulation models (GCMs) is assessed. The prospects for resolving the so-called "first-detection" problem,
concerned with identifying and attributing any climate change that might have taken place by subjecting the
recent observational record of climate to statistical analysis, are discussed. Explanation is given as to why it is
inherently more difficult to make statistical inferences about changes in climate variability than about changes
in climate means. The problem of how best to estimate the probabilities of various climate events is examined
from a decision-analytic viewpoint.
GCM climate experiments do not currently produce information in a form that is useful for societal
impact studies. This should not be surprising because GCMs were developed with the intention of aiding in basic
research about the atmosphere rather than with the needs of climate impact research in mind. It is not at all
clear that GCMs will be able to better meet these requirements in the near future.
The projection of future climate on the basis of currently observed trends is not necessarily justified.
This suggests a fundamental quandary concerning the best way to estimate the likelihood of climate events.
Should decisionmakers retain the "stationary/ hypothesis that the climate is not changing in any permanent
fashion and estimate the probabilities of occurrence of future climate events using the observed frequencies of
occurrence of these events in the historical record? Or should these probability estimates be based only on the
relatively recent historical record or on the extrapolation of an apparent trend or cycle?
Several fundamental issues need to be resolved before impact studies should rely on scenarios of future
climate based on GCM climate experiments or based on the extrapolation of observed climate change. However,
the utility of the case scenario approach is not solely dependent on whether the climate event considered is
analogous in some respects to an anticipated future climate change. Instead, the value of this approach rests
more in providing information about how society has dealt with climate events in the past, regardless of whether
the specific event being examined is at all analogous to events of interest in the future. Given the lack of a
reliable way of projecting future climate change, perhaps the reliance on such case studies is a viable approach
to climate impact assessment.
DEPLETION OF THE OGALLALA AQUIFER
The depletion of the aquifer represents an important change in the water balance of the Great Plains
region. The thickness of the aquifer that underlies the region is not uniform. Thus people in the Texas
Panhandle, where the aquifer is relatively thin and has in the past been heavily used, a^e much more directlv
affected by a drawdown of groundwater than those in Nebraska, a state which possesses a maior share of the
aquifer's resources and high aquifer recharge rates. Both local and federal responses and nolicv studies of the
agricultural future of the region are examined to investigate how climate has been taken into account in the
Spto8 Pr0CeSS ^ h°W perCepti°m *** 811(1 are affected the Political and social acceptability of policy
• , ThC J.awfown of toe Ogallala Aquifer raises an important issue that permeates discussions about the
social and political responses to a global warming: discounting the future. Here is a good Sile ofTchoiS
that society must make-consume the groundwater resource today or save it in the ground for S eeLratioS
for a time when chmate in the region might not be as favorable to agricultural production Th iSvAt
mssskssss iESS&stsz fifs-aar? ^
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Glantz
Is the Ogallala Aquifer drawdown in fact a national problem? How concerned should national leaders
be about the depletion of this regional aquifer? This question hints at the existence of a dilemma While on the
one hand there is interest in generating national concern about the "problem," on the other hand there is a strong
desire by those in the region to keep control of the aquifer and its management at the local and state levels.
Due in part to the variable thicknesses and longevity of different parts of the aquifer, people in the region prefer
local responses to local changes in the aquifer. They do, however, accept the responsibility of the state in the
overall management of the aquifer. In fact, a pecking order of preferences emerges from inhabitants of the
region: state involvement is preferred over federal and local oyer state; water conservation measures are
preferred over other more drastic changes such as reverting to dryland farming practices.
Societal responses to relatively short-term climatic extremes often spark a search for technological
changes on which societies then become dependent. A good example of this would be recurrent droughts in the
Great Plains, which ultimately led to a regional dependence on groundwater exploitation from the Ogallala
Aquifer for agricultural production.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND WATER RESOURCES IN A CALIFORNIA RIVER BASIN
Because of the growth of agricultural production and commercial and industrial development in the
Sacramento River Basin, it has become increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in the magnitude and timing of
precipitation. The societal responses to the 1976-77 drought and to flooding in the early 1980s are examined.
These responses include changes in the physical structure of resource management systems (such as reservoirs
and water transfers), changes in the operation of these systems (such as reservoir rule curves), and a range of
socioeconomic alternatives (such as pricing and market mechanisms, institutional initiatives, and regulatory
responses).
This study also raises concern about the value of existing information about the frequency and intensity
of extreme events, about the magnitude and timing of snowmelt, changes in seasonal evaporation demands, and
so oa Water resource planning standards, as we know them today, could become less reliable in the face of a
changing climate. Thus, we need a better understanding of climate variability and climate change, including
changes in the frequency and range of extreme meteorological events.
Some of the longer-term responses to the mid-1970s drought led to an unintended increase in the
vulnerability of the system to high water levels. In particular, changes were made in reservoir operating rules
in the late 1970s to increase the ability of the system to provide water under low-flow conditions. These changes
worsened the effects of flooding in the early 1980s when unusually high flows occurred.
Like climate, social systems (especially demographic trends) are also changing. As a result, future climate
anomalies on the same order of magnitude even in the same locations as past events may have increasingly larger
impacts on society and the economy. As demographic patterns change, options that are available today may no
longer be useful or even available in the future. For example, in 1976-77, southern California temporarily
relinquished its use of a portion of the water normally transferred from northern California. This permitted
northern California to use that water to meet its environmental and social demands during the drought. Southern
California was willing to do this only because they could make up the difference by temporarily increasing
withdrawals of Colorado River water. Yet, in the future the waters of the Colorado River system will be fully
appropriated and there will be little chance for surplus.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE COLORADO RTVER COMPACT
The Colorado River is a highly regulated river that flows primarily through a semi-arid region in which
the water demands by society are great, and in which the impacts of climate variability can be major. However,
the initial agreement drawn up in 1922, after a few decades of abundant precipitation, to divide the waters of the
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Glantz
Colorado River between the upper and lower basins, essentially ignored the potential effects of climate on the
magnitude and timing of river flow. The effects of a "rigid" strategy for dividing the waters of the Colorado and
the difficulties of changing such a "rigid" strategy once it was put in place are examined.
Important lessons for the future can be found by reviewing the Colorado River Compact of 1922 and
its societal implications. First of all it is unwise to ignore the variability that is inherent in natural systems.
Average conditions do not tell the whole story. A mechanism for the periodic rechecking of the rainfall and
streamflow data should be built into systems responsible for the long-term management of water resources.
It is important not to ignore changes that will occur in social systems. Even with the same amount of
water flowing through the Colorado River system there will be changing needs for and changing values of water
resources. This is especially true for multipurpose resources, such as water, where there are constant changes
in competing demands.
The decline in streamflow in the Colorado River Basin can be regarded in retrospect as a Him at*
change. We know that the original high estimates of annual streamflow were erroneous, but to date nothing
has been done to redress the prospects of shortages which the upper basin states must absorb. There are clear
winners and losers in this situation, as a result of reliance on the original overly optimistic estimates.
In retrospect, decisions that bring rigidity to a management system can ultimately generate more
problems than they solve. For example, dividing up the water supply in absolute terms as opposed to
proportionally has locked the states into certain patterns of interaction. Even though we now know that there
is less water in the system today than was originally estimated, and even though there are now clearly identified
winners (the lower basin states) and losers (the upper basin states), there is no compelling reason for the
"winners" to renegotiate their position.
SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL SUBSIDENCE IN LOUISIANA
Coastal Louisiana is affected by two concurrent problems: sea level rise and coastal subsidence. An
important aspect of sea level rise is that multiple impacts are likely to affect different regions in a differential
manner, be typically cumulative and generally irreversible. Because the impacts are differential, coalition building
becomes difficult and at the same time very important. Federal, state and local responses to coastal land loss
and subsidence in Louisiana are examined to evaluate the institutional implications of projected impacts of a sea
level rise that has been associated with a global warming.
It appears that those concerned about the implications (political, economic, social, environmental) of
wetlands losses, regardless of the causes, agree in general on what needs to be done. What they seem unable to
agree on is when and how fast to take action, with some actors wanting to take immediate action and others,
feeling a less pressing need to act, wanting to "wait and see" whether environmental changes continue to occur
in the future. Nevertheless, at the local and state levels coalitions have formed to deal with the loss of wetlands
and marshes.
The coalition that developed in response to wetland losses served to catalyze public demand for action
to stop these losses and to strengthen local and state institutional capacity for the management of the wetlands.
For example, the state has created a Coastal Protection Trust Fund, with a budget in the tens of millions of
dollars. In addition, there is a Coastal Protection Task Force. This case study is a good example of coalition
building at the local level in response to local environmental changes.
This case could also serve as an example of how other coastal communities might cope with the societal
and environmental implications of a sea level rise (or with coastal erosion or with coastal subsidence or with
urban development).
1-8
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Glantz
Cumulative impacts will occur over a long period of time and will not occur in a uniform fashion along
the coastal areas. This means that there will also be a low probability for the development of a comprehensive
strategy to cope with sea level rise on a larger than local (or state) basis, and coalition building on a regional
level might be a more difficult process.
CHANGES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM
The Mississippi River is linked to the Gulf of Mexico, Great Lakes, and several other waterways. This
navigation system is extremely important for the movement of commodities, such as grain, agricultural chemicals,
cement and stone, coal, and petroleum products. It is also widely used for recreation. The system's capacity is
directly related to the climate of the entire region. Large changes in water level (too little or too much) can
disrupt the flow of trade or at least greatly reduce the efficiency of the system's operation, affecting all parties
dependent on commercial navigation. Institutional responses to fluctuations in the river system are investigated.
Most societal actions are, in fact, responses to a given regional stress. Thus, ad hoc reactions occur.
Generally speaking, extended periods of extremely low water in the Mississippi River system have not yet been
experienced nor have extended periods of excessively high water. Interestingly, we have recently witnessed the
period of greatest historical stress, 1959 to 1986; this has been the wettest 28-year period in the climate history
of the Mississippi River Basin.
There is really no good long-term analogue in the historic hydrologic record of the Mississippi River
system for societal response either to a wetter regime or a drier one. Most responses to hydrologic changes
(usually climate induced) in the Mississippi River system have been made in an ad hoc manner in the form of
crisis management.
It appears that there is little value placed on drought planning strategies because of the belief that the
situation (hydrologic or demographic) will be so different from past situations as to render them useless.
To date, the UJS. Corps of Engineers has worked from existing records and depended for planning on
the identification of historical precedents. If the climate is changing, to what extent will the past historical record
serve as a reliable guide to the future with regard to large navigational systems? Until we know what a climate
change will look like at the regional level, we may not be able to answer that question with a high degree of
confidence.
RISE IN THE LEVEL OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE
Utah's Great Salt Lake has risen 12 feet since 1982, flooding valuable lakeshore property and forcing
resource managers to address the environmental and societal impacts and the problem of variability in lake levels
and climate. Policymakers have been reluctant to address the long-term implications of the problem; instead
they have opted to respond incrementally to mitigate impending crises, while hoping that the lake would soon
recede and "normal" conditions would prevail.
Because the global warming is likely to be gradual, it is probable that local and regional resource
managers will have difficulty in recognizing the initial environmental and societal impacts of a carbon
dioxide/trace gases-induced global warming, and thus will respond to these impacts as they have done to other
impacts of climate-related environmental stress. Finally, even if decisionmakers recognize that a long-term
problem exists, they are still often unwilling to deal with it.
This case study shows that decisionmakers tend to rely on traditional approaches to environmental
problems, even when faced with new or unusual conditions. In this particular instance society tended to rely on
ad hoc technological fixes and rigid, structural responses that could be completed in the short term. For example,
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railroad beds were repeatedly raised several feet at great cost each time, as the water level continued to rise. The
breaching of the Southern Pacific Railroad causeway was another such response. The final (most recent) and
most costly response was the construction of the west desert pumping station at a cost of about $60 million. Even
this technological fix exposed the belief of decisionmakers that the water levels of the lake would not rise much
beyond its present high stage, because the pumping station would not have been able to cope with inflow on the
order of the 1983-86 period.
This study underscores society's tendency to define "normal" in unscientific, often misleading, ways. The
considered responses spanned the gamut from adaptive to mitigative to preventive measures. Adaptive measures
were favored at first. These were followed by mitigative measures. This study shows that structural responses
to climate-related environmental crises can create a false sense of security (e.g., the initial raising of railroad beds
or the breaching of the railroad causeway). An additional concern is whether such ad hoc measures tend to build
into society a rigidity that precludes optional responses in the face of future climate-related variability.
Hindcasting is considerably easier than forecasting. When assessing responses to climate-related crises
we must make sure that we try to recapture "the spirit of the times" so that we do not misinterpret societal
responses to past events. Since the west desert pumping station began operations, the lake's level has stabilized
(at a high level). Yet, at the time a crisis decision was called for, and the pumping station seemed to be an
appropriate response.
CHANGING LEVELS IN THE GREAT LAKES
The Great Lakes Basin's water resources are important to the economic vitality of the American states
and faqaHian provinces in the region. Recent climatic fluctuations have caused lake levels to deviate significantly
from average, thereby affecting commercial shipping companies, hydroelectric utilities, shoreline property owners,
and others. Responses of policymakers to past fluctuations are examined to see if they can provide some insights
into possible future responses to projected climatic warming.
Many water resource management policies for the Great Lakes have developed in an ad hoc manner,
i.e., in response to crises. The lakes oscillate owing to climate variability. Variations in climate are often defined
according to local conditions. For example, even during a wet regime (1965-1987), local droughts occurred.
Control measures need to show a greater understanding of how that system oscillates and what the
impacts of those oscillations might be and how they may change. This will be especially true because there are
demographic changes in the Great Lakes Basin. It has been suggested that if control measures do not reflect
the lakes' variability, those measures could exacerbate or amplify the adverse effects of the variability.
It appears that the "struggle" between proponents of ad hoc or long-term responses, operational or
structural changes, belief or disbelief in a global warming will continue in the Great Lakes Basin until there is
more convincing evidence that there is a dire need for action. Thus, maintaining flexibility is a key element in
any policy to cope with future climate-related environmental changes in the region.
With regard to the global warming issue, some scientists suggest that the lake levels should decline rather
than rise with a global wanning. The rising lake levels and the fact that the 1959-85 annual mean flow (measured
at Cornwall, Ontario) is higher than the longer term 1861-1985 mean create confusion among the general public
about whether a warming is indeed occurring and whether there is a need for long-term strategy development.
INSTITUTIONAL AND PRIVATE SECTOR RESPONSES TO FLORIDA FREEZES
The Florida citrus processing industiy, a major producer of frozen concentrate orange iuice (FCOJ)
was adversely affected by four freezes in five years in the early 1980s. This set of freezes killed!nearly a third of
the trees in commercial groves statewide, with much heavier losses in the northern counties Responses to the
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Glantz
social and economic impacts of the freezes by the various levels and institutions of government are examined,
as well as responses by the private sector, in order to determine the flexibilities, rigidities, and the general
resilience of the system to extreme meteorological events.
This study shows that grove owners are willing to take risks with respect to climate variability. Existing
expectations about risk, however, become upset as those risks seemingly increase. It appears that grove owners
adjust their risk perceptions in response to climate-related events, perhaps weighting recent events most heavily.
Thus, the recent set of freezes has altered their perceptions of the risks that their groves face, as witnessed by
their tendency to replace only a portion of their freeze-damaged trees and their desire to develop new groves
at the southern edge of the current citrus-producing area However, the two most recent years without freezes
could begin once again to cause grove owners to change their assessment of risk to freezes, thereby causing them
to view the set of freezes as anomalous and to view the recent good years as a return to pre-1980 "normal"
conditions.
This case study suggests that the most effective and immediate response to a climate-related problem
often occurs at the local level and in this particular case through the private sector and not at the state or federal
levels. The University of Florida's Institute for Food and Agricultural Sciences (IFAS) seems to have been one
of the main public-sector actors in identifying the freeze impacts and suggesting responses to them. Federal
disaster programs were not widely used because their goals may have been deemed rigid as well as inappropriate,
as they tended to foster replanting citrus groves in the same locations as those decimated in the freezes (a return
to the status quo that existed before the 1980s freezes).
While the citrus industry is a large one, it is only a relatively small percentage of the state's economy
and perturbations in it have even smaller repercussions for the federal government. Thus, it seems to have
essentially remained as a local and state problem, in that order.
Climate anomalies are now on the minds of growers more than before, but in the absence of severe
freezes in the next few years, the situation of the early 1980s will fade into history. This situation presents an
excellent setting for an assessment of perceptions about climate variability, climate change, and the occurrence
of extreme meteorological events.
WATER SHORTAGES IN THE METROPOLITAN NORTHERN VIRGINIA
The use of the case scenario approach in the management of water resources in the Occoquan Reservoir
area in northern Virginia is described to see how these methods can be applied to evaluate the potential impacts
of extreme water shortages. In such an assessment demographic changes are often as important as changes in
climate in assessing the vulnerability of society to climate-related environmental stress.
Lessons from this case study reinforce lessons from other studies; actions to accommodate water
resource problems must be taken at the local level; there is usually debate over appropriate actions; and it takes
a united front of political and technical leaders to implement a conservation plan.
There is rarely sufficient information available to quantify the risk of dire consequences in a credible
manner. In the Occoquan case such information was available and proved to be invaluable in formulating an
effective response. The earlier the risk is recognized, the milder the measures required to control it.
It is critical that society continually monitor its vulnerability to changes in climate, and to reassess which
measures are most appropriate to reduce that vulnerability. Because the rate of climate change is expected to
be small in relation to normal climate variability, society should be able to monitor at least partially its
vulnerability to climate change by monitoring its vulnerability to the "normal" variations in climate. An
assessment of what constitutes "normal" climate must also continually be updated, based on the most recent
meteorologic experiences.
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In the Occoquan case it took both a drought and an increase in water use to threaten the reliability of
the supply. Societal vulnerabilities change as society changes. The measures appropriate to reduce that
vulnerability must also change as both social conditions change and as short-term changes in meteorological
conditions occur. Appropriate emergency measures must be thought out and accepted as far in advance as
possible to maximize their effectiveness.
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CLIMATE CHANGE PERCEPTIONS AMONG NATURAL
RESOURCE DECISION-MAKERS:
THE CASE OF WATER SUPPLY MANAGERS
by
William E. Riebsame
Department of Geography
and
Natural Hazards Research
and Applications Information Center
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309
Cooperative Agreement No. CR-814630
-------
CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii
FINDINGS 2-1
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 2-2
CHAPTER 2: THE SURVEYS 2-3
CHAPTER 3: CALIFORNIA INTERVIEWS 2-6
PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2-6
PERCEPTION OF INCREASED CLIMATE VARIABILITY AS AN INDICATOR
OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2-7
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MAIL
SURVEYS 2-9
PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 2-9
PERCEPTIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE TRENDS AS INDICATORS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE 2-9
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS 2-13
CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY 2-15
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 2-16
REFERENCES 2-18
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The plural pronoun "we" used in this report refers to the author and to graduate students Lee Dillard
(Clark University), David Smith, and David Cook (University of Colorado) who assisted in the design,
application, and analysis of the surveys reported here. Lee Dillard conducted the personal interviews in
California during field work conducted in collaboration with David Smith and the author. Initial work on this
study was funded as part of the Climate Impacts Perception and Adjustment Experiment (CLIMPAX) under a
grant from the National Science Foundation. Additional analysis was supported under cooperative agreement
CR-814630 with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The interpretations expressed here are the author's
and do not necessarily reflect those of NSF, EPA, or the assistants listed above.
iii
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Riebsame
FINDINGS1
Surveys of selected water resource managers show that most are aware of the greenhouse effect and
the potential for anthropogenic climate change. Yet most managers do not expect noticeable climatic change
in the next few decades and, indeed, tend to expect unusual climatic conditions to return to normal. This
expectation, made explicit in resource planning criteria for water and other natural resources, makes sense given
the lack of reliable forecasts of long-term climate trends. However, in the face of increasingly credible
predictions of anthropogenic climate change, managers may have to override their beliefs about long-term
climate stability and yield to the growing logic and public pressure for anticipatory action. Traditional analytical
approaches and decision-making approaches in water resource management have the potential to delay or
complicate the process of adapting to climate change. Perception studies in other climate-sensitive natural
resource management areas are needed to determine their adaptability.
Although the information in this report has been funded partly by the ILS. Environmental
Protection Agency under cooperative assistance agreement number CR-814630, it does not necessarily reflect
the Agency's views, and no official endorsement should be inferred.
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Riebsame
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Research suggests that natural resource planners tend to count on long-term stability or "normality" of
environmental variables (Morrisette, 1988; HoUuig, 1986). This bias appears to be especially strong in water
resource planning where long-term future conditions are explicitly assumed to emulate those observed over the
past several dera^. Statistics describing the central tendency of climatic variables are assumed to exhibit
"stationarity" over time, showing no cumulative trends. This assumption pervades essentially all
hydroclimatological calculations (Huff and Changnon, 1987; Changnon, 1984; Lettenmaier and Burges, 1978;
Riebsame, 1988).
Absent detailed and reliable forecasts of future climate trends, of course, assumptions of climatic
stationarity make sense. However, increasingly credible predictions of climate change associated with rising
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activity (see, for example, Schlesinger and
Mitchell, 1985; World Meteorological Organization, 1985; Bolin et al., 1986) provide a rationale for analysing,
and perhaps adjusting, expectations of future climate conditions in natural resource planning.
Indeed, managers may soon be forced by the long planning horizons of natural resource systems, and
by public pressure, to take preventive or adaptive actions before predictions of climate change become much
more detailed, and before incontrovertible evidence for actual climate change emerges. In this ambiguous
situation, beliefs and attitudes about climate change are likely to play an important role in how decision-makers
respond. Yet little research has been conducted on decision-maker perception of climate (see, for example,
Whyte, 1985). The logical first step toward filling this gap is to conduct surveys to discover how managers whose
activities are directly affected by climate perceive the emerging issue of anthropogenic climate change. This
article describes results of surveys of water resource managers in the southwestern and southeastern United
States, and suggests needed research on climate perception.
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Riebsame
CHAPTER 2
THE SURVEYS
Three groups of water resource managers were surveyed. First, 32 managers in decision-making
positions in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley (with offices in Sacramento) were interviewed as part
of a larger case study of water system adjustment to recent climate anomalies (Riebsame, 1988). Next, mail
surveys were conducted of water managers in parts of the southwestern and southeastern United States
The California area was selected because it has experienced increased precipitation variability over
the last decade. The two mail survey areas were chosen because they exhibit marked precipitation anomalies
over the past several years, as identified by Karl and Riebsame (1964). The southwestern U.S. experienced a
dramatic increase in annual precipitation since the late-1970s, a trend reflected in greater runoff and rising
levels of the Great Salt Lake (see, for example, Phillips and Jordan, 1986; Morrisette, 1988). Arizona's north-
central climatic division showed the largest precipitation increase (Figure la), but the anomaly also affected most
of Arizona, Utah, and Nevada Parts of the southeastern UJS. have experienced a drying trend over the past
several years, especially in terms of summer precipitation (UJS. Army Corps of Engineers, 1988). This is
especially evident in the record for North Carolina's southern mountains climatic division (Figure 2a).
Agency and professional association directories, telephone inquiries, and contacts with researchers were
used to compile a list of 180 and 80 mail survey recipients in the southwestern and southeastern anomaly areas,
respectively. A "snow-ball" approach was used: we stopped adding to the mailing lists as inquiries increasingly
yielded repeat names. The goal was not to contact aU water resource personnel in each area, but rather to
identify those in key decision-making and planning positions. The surveys are thus limited and results may not
be widely generalizable to all water managers or to other natural resource managers. Yet, they do plumb the
climate perceptions of front-line decision-makers in areas where water resources have recently been stressed by
climate fluctuations.
The surveys covered details of local climate, attitudes about climate in resource planning, types of
climate-sensitive decisions and operations, and expectations of climate change. Only results related to
perceptions of climate change are reported here; a full analysis appears in Riebsame and Cook (1988). Results
from the personal interviews in California are presented first; they provided a chance to explore managers'
climate perceptions in depth, and offered guidance on the design of the mail questionnaire. Results from the
mail surveys of managers in the SW and SE areas are then described, followed by a general summary.
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Riebsame
25
I
8
H
0 11 1 ' 1 1 ' 1 1 1 ' ' 1 'J 1 1 11 t 1 1 11 1 ' 1 I < I ¦ « ¦ > t . | .... I
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1930 i 960 1970 1980 1 990
YEAR
G
Figure 1. Annual precipitation in Arizona's north-central climatic division: (a) actual record and (b)
extended record.
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Riebsame
Summer Precipitation
Year
Sunnier Precipitation
Year
Figure 2.
Summer precipitation in North Carolina's southern mountains climatic division; (a) actual record
and (b) extended records
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Riebsame
CHAPTER 3
CALIFORNIA INTERVIEWS
Thirty-one professionals associated with the major federal, state, and local water resource agencies in
California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley with offices in Sacramento were interviewed for this study. These
were operations managers, planners, and chief administrators with, for example, the California State Department
of Water Resources, Bureau of Reclamation, Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento County, and the City of
Sacramento. We estimate that the interviews included roughly 75% of all first- and second-level administrators
of these agencies.
The interview covered several aspects of climate and climate change, including: (1) impacts and
adjustment^ assrciated with two extreme •£* in the last lOyears-- the 1986 flood J* BJM977 drought;
(2 perception of the variability of climate during this 10-year period; (3) perception of 1978-1986 precipitation
compared to that of pre-1977; (4) general concepts of climate and climate change; and (5) perception of the
greenhouse effect. This paper focuses on respondents' perceptions of climate change, with emphasis on potential
climate changes associated with the greenhouse effect.
PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Ninety percent (28) of the interviewees said they were informed about the greenhouse effect. Fifty-two
percent (16) of the water managers we interviewed believe that the climate of the earth is changing, and half of
these cited the greenhouse effect as the cause. There was, however, no consensus among respondents on
precisely what about the earth's climate is changing (e.g., precipitation patterns, variability, or seasonal
characteristics). When asked if the climate of the Sacramento area was changing, 55% (17) said no, 26% (8)
said yes, and 19% (6) felt that it exhibits cycles rather than permanent changes. When asked whether they
expected the area's climate to change in their lifetimes, 76% (19 out of 26 respondents) said no.
Similarly, 79% (19 of 252) do not believe that their water resource agency should be planning for the
possible impacts of future climate change. It was generally thought that regional water resource planning for
a greenhouse climate change is not justified until there is better documentation of the probability and severity
of potential impacts. However, all but one of the respondents thought that greenhouse climate change, if it
does occur, would be harmful rather than helpful to humankind as a whole.
Respondents were then asked to assume that climatologists had provided a credible projection that the
area's climate would be 1 to 2 degrees warmer and 10% drier (or wetter) over the next few decades and then
asked how probable the scenario would have to be before they would advocate efforts to plan for the change.
Five people (17%) said they would wait for evidence of actual climate change and its effects, and three
interviewees said they would need detailed information about the potential impacts before they could answer the
question. Of the 21 people who answered the question with a percentage, 18 (86%) indicated that the scenario
would have to be at least 50% certain and 9 (43%) answered at least 75% certain.
2 Note that sample size varies between questions; respondents were free not to answer all questions. Hie
number answering a question is provided when it is different than the full samples: California (31") the
Southwest (76), and the Southeast (42). '
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Riebsame
PERCEPTION OF INCREASED CLIMATE VARIABILITY AS AN INDICATOR OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Precipitation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Basin exhibited a marked increase in interannusri variability
during the mid-1970s, and large year-to-year variability has continued to the present (Figure 3; see also
Riebsame, 1988). This enhanced variability is highlighted by the 1976-77 drought and 1986 floods, events which
dramatically extended the historical range of Basin precipitation and runoff. All the interviewees
of the statistical rarity of both the drought and flood, and 25% (7) interpreted events of the past Uymiu
shift toward increased precipitation variability. Yet, 68% (19) either referred to the recent variability a f
period which would not recur or claimed that it was not so unusual, referring to the area s reputation for highly
variable seasonal and annual precipitation. There was great reluctance to use words like climate change or
"trend" to describe the recent spell of large variability.
When those who felt that the area's climate was changing (eight respondents to an earlier question)
were asked how it is changing, no one mentioned an increase in precipitation vmabihty, though five mention
increased rain (amount or frequency) or flooding, one mentioned increased drought, and several mentioned
changes in seasonality.
Interviewees were then presented a graph of precipitation for the area from 1945 to 1986 (Figure 3)
and asked how many more years the heightened variability would have to be sustained before it could be
considered a change in basic climatic patterns. Only one of the respondents believed that this period already
constitutes a basic change in climate. Seven (27%) of the respondents said the pattern would need to be
sustained for an additional 10 to 20 years, and six (23%) wanted to see an additional 20 to 100 yearsof variability,
before they would consider the basic climate patterns changed and would begin planning for a different 8et ot
climate conditions. Six respondents believed that the question could not be answered because either the
instrumental record was not long enough or there was no good rule for interpreting the data to determine
whether climate change was under way or had occurred.
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Riebsame
Figure 3. Sacramento Basin annual precipitation.
2-8
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Riebsame
CHAPTER 4
RESULTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MAIL SURVEYS
Results from the two mail surveys are described jointly. Not all of the questions used in the California
interviews were repeated in the mail surveys, although many similar questions were asked in formats more
appropriate to a mail questionnaire.
PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Seventy-six and 42 questionnaires were returned from the southwestern and southeastern surveys,
respectively. All but a few of the water managers surveyed had heard of the greenhouse effect, but they tended
to assign low probabilities to future global or local climate change. We asked managers to assign probabilities
to the potential, over the next 30 years, for global climate change (defined as at least a 1 degree C. global
warming), noticeable local climate change, and the need to change water management practices because of
climate change.
The distribution of responses in 10% increments is shown in Tables 1 and 2. Sixty-seven percent (48)
of the respondents in the southwest assign less than a 50% chance of global or local climate change in the next
three decades. In the southeast sample, 58% (22) of the managers give less than a 50% chance of global climate
change in the next 30 years, and 71% (27) feel that the chance of noticeable local climate changes over the same
period is less than 50%. Seventy-five percent of the southwestern managers and 71% of the southeastern
managers ajwignlf M than a 50% chance of having to change water resource practices over the next three decades
because of climate change.
Yet 35% (26) of the southwestern water managers felt that the area's climate was changing, and 52%
(23) of the southeastern water managers felt that their climate was currently changing.
PERCEPTIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE TRENDS AS INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The mail survey recipients were given two climate graphs. The first showed actual precipitation amounts
for the climatic divisions used as anchors in this study (Figures la and 2a); these were labeled only as
"precipitation records in your area." Next, the two records were extended using a simple rubric: the trends that
initially attracted our interest (recent runs of wet and dry years in the southwestern and southeastern areas,
respectively) were extrapolated for a decade at roughly the same rate with similar variability (Figures lb and 2b).
Managers were then asked whether the recent periods were "consistent" or "inconsistent" with the longer
record for both the actual and the extended records, and whether "new climatic regimes" were being established.
They were also asked to predict the precipitation trend over the next decade.
As shown in Table 3, most of the southwestern respondents felt that the recent record was "consistent"
with the long-term record in both the actual and extended records (73 and 58%, respectively). Yet, only half of
those who labeled the recent years as "inconsistent" with the longer-term records in both the actual and extended
records felt that a "new climate regime" was being established. Most (75%) felt that the historical record was
too short to determine whether "climate change" was occurring.
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Riebsame
TABLE 1
PERCEIVED LIKELIHOOD OF GREENHOUSE CLIMATE CHANGE:
SOUTHWESTERN WATER MANAGERS
Likelihood >1°C Global Warming4 Local Change" Mgmt. Change'
(%)
Cum Fq
Cum %
Cum Fq
Cum %
Cum Fq
Cum
0
3
4.3
3
4.3
6
8.7
1-10
12
17.1
16
23.2
22
31.9
11-20
22
31.4
25
36.2
35
50.7
21-30
34
48.6
35
50.7
44
63.8
31-40
40
57.1
40
58.0
48
69.6
41-50
50
71.4
51
73.9
58
84.1
51-60
57
81.4
59
85.5
60
87.0
61-70
62
88.6
61
88.4
64
92.8
71-80
67
95.7
66
95.7
66
95.7
81-90
69
98.6
69
100.0
68
98.6
91-100
70
100.0
0
100.0
1
100.0
n-70
n-69
n-69
a How likely is it that the average temperature of the earth will
rise at least l'C in the next 30 years due to the greenhouse effect.
b How likely is it that the climate of your area will change
noticeably within the next 30 years?
e How likely is it that water resources management practices in your
area will be forced to change due to climate change in your area
will be forced to change due to the climate change in the next 30
years?
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TABLE 2
PERCEIVED LIKELIHOOD OF GREENHOUSE CLIMATE CHANGE:
SOUTHEASTERN WATER MANAGERS*
Likelihood
>1 C Global Warming
Local Change
Mgmt
. Chai
(%)
Cum Fq Cum %
Cum Fq
Cum %
Cum Fq
Cum !
0
2
5.3
2
5.3
3
7.9
1-10
5
13.2
9
23.7
7
18.4
11-20
9
23.7
9
23.7
11
28.9
21-30
14
36.8
13
34.2
16
42.1
31-40
19
50.0
21
55.3
22
57.9
41-50
22
57.9
27
71.1
27
71.1
51-60
24
63.2
29
76.3
29
76.3
61-70
31
81.6
32
84.2
32
84.2
71-80
37
97.4
37
97.4
34
89.5
81-90
1
100.0
38
100.0
35
92.1
91-100
0
100.0
0
100.0
38
100.0
n-38
n-38
n-38
* Questions same as table 1
2-11
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Riebsame
TABLE 3
PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE RECORDS
Consistent'
Actual SV Record
Freq %
54 73
Extended SV Record
Freq %
41 54
Inconsistent"
New Precipitation
Regime?'
20 27
11 51
30
14
46
49
Consistent'
Actual SE Record
Freq %
16 40
Extended SE Record
Freq %
16 39
Inconsistent"
New Precipitation
Regime?®
24 60
25
61
18 75
24 96
1 Is the last decade's precipitation record consistent or
inconsistent with the long-term precipitation regime?
b Is the precipitation record of the last two decades consistent or
inconsistent with the long-term precipitation regime?
6 Those who answered that the recent period was inconsistent with
the long-term record were then asked whether a "new precipitation
regime" was being established.
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Riebsame
In contrast, slight majorities of the southeastern managers felt that the recent^spell of drier editions
was "inconsistent" with the previous climate for both the actual and extended records 61%, res^ct^ely),
and most of those applying the term "inconsistent" felt that a new climate regime was ing
It is important to note that while the southwestern survey was conducted in the fall of 1987, the
southeastern survey was conducted during the late-spring of 1988 and that some questionnaires were not re^
until late in the summer of 1988. The summer was marked by dramatic heat and drought m the southe^t and
elsewhere and was a period in which the greenhouse effect became a common element of public and professior^
discourse about the climate. Still, only half of the southeastern managers surveyed, and less tto a fifth of the
southwestern managers, wcie willing to characterize recent climate anomahes, even those extended a decade
beyond the actual record, as the emergence of a new climatic regime (Table 3).
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS
Like the California water managers, the mail survey respondents tended toexpect future £«"f^ns^
"return to normal" or compensate for the unusual conditions of recent years (Table 4). However, the
southeastern group was more evenly divided between expecting the drying trend, to return to normal or to
continue. Again, perhaps the heightened climate change awareness during the summer of 1988 made
southeastern water managers more open to the possibility that the recent trend would continue and that it might
even be a fundamental climate change rather than an anomaly destined to return to normal.
2-13
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Riebsame
TABLE 4
EXPECTATIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE"
Expectations
Return to average
Continue wetter
Swing to drier
Actual SW Record
Freq %
42
16
n-73
58
22
20
Extended SV Record
Freq %
41
15
n-71
58
21
21
Return to average
Continue drier
Swing to wetter
Actual SE Record
Freq %
18
16
k
n-38
47
42
01
Extended SV Record
Freq %
49
46
05
n-39
* What is the most likely trend in the precipitation record over
the next decade?
2-14
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Riebsame
CHAPTER 5
SUMMARY
Overall, the water resource managers surveyed in this study are cognizant of fe peenhane effect and
potential near-future climate change. However, their expectations of climate change
of the managers interviewed in California felt that the earth's dimate was changing, most do not fcel tlmt thw
local climate is changing and few expect to experience climate change in their area over the next several decades.
Most felt that they should not be planning for climate change. Though they rec^niM tlmtttearea s dmate
has been more variable lately, only one was willing to characterize he recent period of
variability as a climate change, ami most said that the pattern would have to continue at least another 10 years
before they would consider factoring the new conditions into long-term plans.
Water managers in the southwestern and southeastern mail surveys tended to assignkw probabilities
to the potential fwnbticeable global or local climate change over the next three decades. Th^gener^ydo
not expect climate changes sufficient to require altered water resource system planning or operation m the
foreseeable future.
The water managers avoided terms like "climate change" or "new climate regime" in characterizing
unusual conditions or trends. Most of the southwestern managers would not characterize the recent we SpeU
as inconsistent with past conditions, nor would most identify it as a new climatic regime, even when it was
extrapolated 10 years into the future. They tended to expect the recent wet pattern to return to average in the
next several yews. Southeastern water managers were slightly more likely th^southwestemm^ers to
identify recent precipitation trends as inconsistent with past conditions, and most of those felt that it did contitute
a "new climate regime." Nevertheless, a small majority expected the drying trend to revert to average.
A stronger bias shows up in responses to the question of whether the roughly 100-year-Iong records
presented to the managers were sufficiently long for them to determine whether the dimate was changing.
Most said no (75% in the Southwest and 71% in the Southeast). Managers appear to be focusing on very long,
perhaps geologic, time scales when they think of climatic change, despite the emerging scientific consensus that
significant and rapid change may be forced by an enhanced greenhouse effect over the next several decades.
2-15
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Riebsame
CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
The survey results reported here suggest that water managers are ambivalent about the potential for
climate change in the near future, that they do not expect climate change to force changes in water management
practices in the foreseeable future, and that they exhibit, at least weakly, what some researchers have called a
normality bias" in their anticipations of future climate conditions. Most of those surveyed in this study do not
believe that the climate is changing or will change in the next several decades. Even a majority of the
southeastern survey respondents, half of whom feel that the region's climate is changing," assigned less than a
50% chance of noticeable local climate change due to the greenhouse effect over the next three decades.
When presented with evidence of unusual climate conditions in their area, most managers tended to
deny the possibility of fundamental climate change, to refer to recent anomalies as temporary fluctuations, to
expect future conditions to revert to more average conditions, or to deny that climate change could be
determined from a 100-year climate record.
Of course, in the absence of reliable predictions of climate trends, expectations of stationarity make
sense. However, projections of fundamental climate change due to the greenhouse effect are becoming
increasingly credible, and anthropogenic climate change has several unique characteristics that fit poorly with
managers' perceptions and biases. First, it is predictable at least in terms of general trends if not local details
or magnitudes of change. Second, trends that emerge from climatic noise due to the greenhouse effect are likely
to be cumulative rather than tending to return to pre-existing average conditions - unless, of course, the infusion
of greenhouse gases is reversed. Third, the marked increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
over especially the last several decades means, simply, that the more recent segments of existing climate records
may more accurately reflect the current and near-future climate than do earlier data. Yet, water managers tend
to weigh whole historical records evenly and, as shown in this study, feel that fluctuations must endure several
decades before they can be considered permanent trends.
Resource managers will have to override some of their traditional expectations and biases in order to
adjust to anthropogenic climate change. This is true whether they adjust in the face of actual evidence for
change, or if public pressure to anticipate predicted changes becomes stronger. They will have to adopt new
ways of assessing climate records that eschew assumptions of stationarity and develop mnnagAmont criteria
sensitive to secular climate trends.
The findings presented here may indicate some of the management problems that will be encountered
as decision-makers respond to climate change or predictions of climate change. First and foremost, there is great
ambiguity as to what constitutes a climate change, ahd managers disagree on what magnitude of change is
needed to require some overt response. Managers are also divided in their beliefs about stability and
change.
The evidence here suggests that the greenhouse effect as it is currently perceived by decision-makers
is too uncertain and/or poorly defined to provoke overt response. Nevertheless, scientists' concerns and news
media coverage may eventually evoke a public mandate for preventive action. Thus, it appears that scientists
studying climate change, and policy-makers considering human response, face a large educational task. As
climate research creates improved records of global change and yields more credible forecasts of future changes,
it is essential that the information be communicated in a meaningful and useful fashion to professional resource
managers in the most sensitive sectors. This step is easily neglected, or it is assumed to follow automatically
from progress in the physical science. But we know very little about how to communicate information on large-
scale, sometimes subtle and cumulative, environmental changes that may lie below the perceptual thresholds of
most resource managers.
2-16
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Riebsame
The ambiguity with which resource managers now perceive climate change issues should be carefully
noted by scientists and policy-makers who are more convinced that climate change poses a threat. Without
better communication of this threat they are likely to be dissatisfied with resource manager response, even in
the most climate-sensitive areas like water supply management: resource managers may be slow to respond
to information on climate change, and may delay adjusting water systems until well after significant climate
changes and impacts have occurred.
2-17
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Riebsame
REFERENCES
Bolin, B., J. Jager, and B.R. Doos. 1986. The greenhouse effect, climatic change and ecosystems: a synthesis of
present knowledge. In The Greenhouse Effect. Climatic Change and Ecosystems, ed. B. Bolin, B.R. Doos, J.
Jager, and RA. Warrick, 1-34. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
Changnon, SA., Jr. 1984. Misconceptions about climate in water management. In Proceedings of a Conference
nn Management Techniques for Water and Related Resources, ed. Water Resources Center, 1-8. University of
Illinois, Champaign-Urbana.
Holling, CJS. 1986. The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change. In Sustainable
Development of the Biosphere, ed. W.C. Clark and T.E. Munn, 292-317. Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Huff, FA. and SA. Changnon, Jr. 1987. Temporal changes in design rainfall frequencies in Illinois. Climatic
Change 10:195-200.
Karl, T.R. and W.E. Riebsame. 1984. The identification of 10-to 20-year climate fluctuations in the conterminus
United States. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 950-966.
Lettenmaier, D.P. and S J. Burges. 1978. Climate Change: Detection and Its Impact on Hydrologic Desiga
Water Resources Research 14:679-687.
Morrisette, P.M. 1988. The stability bias and adjustment to climatic variability: the case of the rising level of
the Great Salt Lake. Applied Geography 8:171-189.
Phillips, D.H. and D. Jordan. 1986. The declining role of historical data in reservoir management and operations.
In Preprints of the Conference on Climate and Water Management. August 4-7. 1986. Boston: American
Meteorological Organization.
Riebsame, W.E. 1988. Adjusting water resources management to climate change. Climatic Change 12:69-97.
Riebsame, W.E. and D. Cook. 1988. Perception of Climate Change: Results from Surveys of Water Resource
Managers. Natural Hazard Research Working Paper No. 65, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of
Colorado, Boulder. (Copies available from the author).
Schlesinger, M.E. and J.F.B. Mitchell. 1985. Model projection of the equilibrium climatic response to inrrpa^H
carbon dioxide. In: M.C. MacCracken and F.M. Luther (eds.) Projecting the Climate Effects of Increasing
rarhnn Dioxide. Washington, DC UJS. Department of Energy,
Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman. 1974. Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Scienr/> 185:1124-1131.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 1988. Lessons learned from the drought of 1986 drought. Davis, CA:
Hydrological Engineering Center.
A-WSS Perceptioi^ in R.W. Kates, J Ausubel, and M. Berberian (eds.) Climate Imnact
pp. 403-436. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
Worid MettorologMI Cation. 1985. Repffi gf International Confers nn rhe A „r«,
Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations »nd Associate imp^. wmo
No. 661. Geneva.
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APPLICABILITY OF FEDERAL LONG-RANGE PLANNING
AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT PROCESSES
TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES
by
Malcolm Forbes Baldwin
Environmental Management Support, Inc.
1010 Wayne Avenue, Suite 200
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Contract Number 68-03-3533
-------
CONTENTS
Page
FINDINGS J*}
CONCLUSIONS 3-1
RECOMMENDATIONS 3-2
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 3-3
1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF REPORT 3-3
1.2 BACKGROUND ON THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT
BASIC REQUIREMENTS 3-3
1.3 LONG RANGE PLANNING BY FEDERAL AGENCIES 3-4
1.4 STUDY APPROACH 3-4
CHAPTER 2 FEDERAL ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RELATIONSHIPS
TO LONG-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 3-6
2.1 FEDERAL ACTIVITIES RELATED TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 3-6
2.1.1 Federal Energy Programs 3-6
2.1.2 Agricultural Programs 3-6
2.1.3 Public Lands and Wildlife Programs 3.7
2.1.4 Coastal Programs 3-7
2.1.5 Inland Water Resource Programs 3.7
2.1.6 Federal Construction 3-8
2.1.7 Disaster and Emergency Assistance 3-8
2.1.8 Housing and Urban Development 3.8
2.1.9 Hazardous Waste 3-8
2.1.10 Foreign Development Aid Assistance 3.8
2.2 RELATIONSHIP OF THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT
TO THESE FEDERAL ACTIVITIES 3.9
2.3 FEDERAL ACTIONS AFFECTING EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES ...!!!! 3-9
2.3.1 Policies 3.9
2.3.2 Programs " . 3.9
2.3.3 Projects 3.9
2.4 FEDERAL ACTIONS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE 3.9
2.4.1 Plans/Programs 3-9
2.4.2 Regional Programs !!!!!!!!!" 3-10
2.4.3 Site Specific Plans or Projects '!!!!!!!!.! 3-11
2.4.4 Foreign Assistance Programs 3-12
CHAPTER 3: EXAMINATION OF SELECTED FEDERAL AGENCY LONG-RANGE PLANNING
AND EIS PRACTICES U , ,,
3.1 THE U.S. FOREST SERVICE !!!!!!! 343.
3.1.1 The Forest Service Planning and EIS Process 3.13
3.1.2 The Planning Process in Practice !!!!!" 344
3.1.3 Applicability of the Forest Service's EIS Process to
Global Climate Issues -
3.2 THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS CIVIL WORKS PROGRAM*!!!!!
3.2.1 Water Resource Projects f j7
3.2.2 Regulatory Program !!...!!!! £i«
3.23 Applicability of the Planning/EIS Processes to
Global Climate Issues 2 19
ii
-------
CONTENTS (cont.)
Page
3.3 THE FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE 3-21
3.3.1 The National Wildlife Refuge System 3-21
3.3.2 The Refuge Planning and EIS Process 3-21
3.3.3 Applicability of the EIS Process to Global Climate
Change Issues 3-23
3.4 FEDERAL ACTIVITIES IN THE COASTAL ZONE 3-24
3.4.1 Projects Affected by Sea Level Rise 3-24
3.4.2 Coastal Zone Management Act Program* 3-25
3.4.3 Long-Range Regulatory Planning Capabilities of
Federal Agencies 3-25
3.4.4 Applicability of Federal Coastal Zone EIS Processes
to Global Climate Issues 3-27
REFERENCES 3-29
APPENDIX : 3-30
Federal Programs Related To Long-term Climate Change 3-30
ill
-------
FINDINGS1
Baldwin
CONCLUSIONS
~ Federal agencies are malting long-range decisions concerning agriculture, forestry, water resources,
coastal zone resources, and energy resources with little or no regard for long-range climate impacts.
This is particularly true for actions potentially affecting climate, such as national energy plans, federal
energy programs that are not analyzed in EISs, and specific energy projects that are subjects of EISs.
It is also true for long-range plans and EISs concerning national forests, navigable waters, and coastal
resources that may be affected by climate change. Federal projects, funds, and licenses for
infrastructure development lasting 50 years or more are planned, assessed in EISs, and implemented
under the assumption that present climate conditions will prevail.
~ EISs on long-term federal actions can help federal decision makers and the public understand how
global climate may affect, or be affected by, the proposed actions or reasonable alternatives without
changes in NEPA or the EIS procedures. The CIS process is widely understood by agencies and the
public, and it facilitates public participation and agency coordination at all levels. If strong and
continuous efforts are made to adhere to existing NEPA regulations and to prepare readable, accurate,
and well-focused EISs, these documents can raise the level of public understanding of global climate
change by disclosing possible long-term costs of various options. Greater use of programmatic, generic,
and regional EISs can overcome limitations of project-specific analyses by focusing on cumulative
impacts and alternative approaches and technologies. EISs can refer to and complement other agency
studies that may be necessary, and sometimes more appropriate, to address climate impacts and effects.
~ The most immediate practical step in improving climate impact assessment is to use EISs to identify on
a comprehensive bans the resources that are most sensitive to climate warming and drier or wetter
conditions and/or sea level rise. EISs concerned with climate impacts must focus on the needs of
decision makers, and agencies have limited time and money for EIS preparation. Agencies must rely
on and incorporate existing information on climate change scenarios into their EISs.
~ Several existing long-range planning and EIS processes can incorporate climate change and
environmental impact scenarios.
The Forest Service Assessment and Program requirements of the Resource Planning Act and
the forest unit planning process offer the most comprehensive opportunity for national forest
and range resources.
Public land planning processes of Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and Bureau
of Land Management, offer possibilities to integrate climate scenarios and sensitivity analyses
into national and unit plans and operational decisions.
States can address potential impacts or sea level rise under their approved Coastal Zone
Management plans and thereby help shape federal actions and EISs concerning specific
geographical areas.
Corps of Engineers regulatory permit programs have supported areawide local planning that
can also incorporate climate change scenarios. Many other site-specific EIS processes
concerning coastal construction, infrastructure, and resource protection can address the lona-
1 Although the information in this report has been funded wholly or partly by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency under Contract No. 68-03-3533, it does not necessarily reflect the Agency's views, and no
official endorsement should be inferred from it.
M
-------
Baldwin
term effects of sea level rise on development decisions directly or indirectly caused by the
proposed action or its alternatives.
lr-no-rantre claiming and EIS processes related to actions that may
~ isnsass®-**-*4-^
toUed o site-specific actions because the National Energy Pten has not addressed these issues
Si it has not been subject to EIS requirements. Program EKs have been prepared on coal
Vins on public lands, oil leasing on the outer continental shelf, and aspects of nuclear power,
buUhevhave not addressed climate impacts. Moreover, no comprehenswe long-range energy
ptan/ElS examines the cumulative emission effects of energy production and use on climate.
On the other side of the equation, no comprehensive federal river-basin planning and decision
process exists to address climate-related effects on federal water resource projects or private
permit proposals. As a result federal agencies have a limited ability to apply EISs to climate
impacts on water resources on a broad geographic scale for all parts of the United States.
RECOMMENDATIONS
PA^ra, agencies should have guidance on the climate change scenarios they should consider for
dU&rentlfinds of actions subject to EISs, including what information is available, and where, for
nartirnilar reeions Guidance should include ways in which agencies should assess the impacts of present
Sumptions about climate stability and the sensitivity of v^ious enwonifaental conditions to climate
S^esThe Council on Environmental Quality has provided this kind of guidance on other topics,
Sfwith the assistance of EPA and other agencies. It is appropriate for the Council to provide
guidance" o federal agencies on climate change data and analysis that can be practically applied in
different kinds of EISs.
Acencv experiences in applying climate data in EISs should be regularly shared among agency EIS staff
to heto ttSn learn from past successes and problems. The Council on Environmental Quality, in
Oration with EPA and other appropriate agencies, could play an important role in distilling and
dbtibutbK such informatioa Information should be developed m part of a rigorous, comprehensive
review by the Council of federal agency compliance with existing NEPA regulations.
~ Significant gaps in long-range planning, decision making, and EIS requirements need to be filled to pve
ffm^rnment agencies and the public better opportunities to understand and affect significant global
climate issues One possible step in that direction would be to require that the global climate effects
offederal energy policies, programs, and regulations be addressed in long-range plans that are subject
to EIS requirements. EPA, in cooperation with the Department of Energy, should assess the
oDDortunities to improve long-range planning and impact analysis of energy program regulations
affecting the emission of greenhouse gases and research activities in terms of their potential climatic
effects Even where EISs are not required for significant actions causing greenhouse gas emissions,
consideration should be given to climate impact analyses in EPA's "functional equivalent" EISs or in
other documents.
3-2
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Baldwin
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF REPORT
This report assesses whether and how the environmental impact statement (EIS) process required by the
National Environmental Policy Act can be used to address long-term impacts related to global climate change.
When appropriating funds for Fiscal Year 1987, Congress asked the Environmental Protection Agency to report
on the "feasibility of utilizing the EIS process to ensure that climate change is considered in long-range
development projects." As discussed in Chapter 2, many federal agencies carry out actions that may affect, or
be affected by, global climate change. These actions frequently require EISs, although many other actions with
important relationships to climate change are not subject to EIS requirements. To help EPA give a practical
answer to Congress' question concerning the opportunities and limitations of EISs on climate relationships,
Chapter 3 of the report examines planning and EIS capabilities of several federal agencies and how they relate
to global climate change. Because sea level rise is one of the clearest effects of global climate warming, Chapter
3 also examines other federal planning and EIS processes concerned with the coastal zone.
1.2 BACKGROUND ON THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT BASIC
REQUIREMENTS
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 requires environmental impact statements for
"maior Federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the human environment. Actions subject to this
SememtdSderegulations, and recommendations for legislation by federal
agencies such as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the Environmental Protection Agency, Forest
Service and Corps of Engineers. Impact statements cm these proposals are intended to affect the decision
mSp^e?S analS% significant direct, indirect, and cumulative impacts of the proposed action and
reasonable alternatives.
The Council on Environmental Quality's NEPA regulations of 1978 clarify the purpose and focus of EISs
and the procedures that agencies must follow to meet NEPA requirements.
rrre „,j.w rcmmihilitiM NEPA requires all federal agencies to review and comment on EISs
conce^Sers SfftheS Srisdiction and expertise. In addition, §309 of the Ctean Air Act requires EPA
to reviewEISs for actions that affect any of EPA's statutory responsibilities. Proposed actions that EPA
believes would be "unsatisfactory from the standpoint of public health, or welfare, or environmental quality may
be referred to the Council on Environmental Quality.
EImmm- LimitationsoftheEISp^
global climate impact analysis. EISs are requiredonly for new
The actions must be federal, and not private, and minimal federal involvement in a pnwte action may not
"federalize" an action for NEPA purposes. Actions must alsobe proposed for implementation, and not vmply
contemplated or studied. Hence, EISs may »<* **^ttmpoTtrnt ^«*.
considered "proposals" by a federal agency under NEPA. Instead, EISs may only be required at the project level,
for a specific federal action on a highway, water resource project, or a permit for a coal/oil power plant or
hydroelectric dam, for example. The cumulative impacts of eachprojecton, or from, climate change, may, m
some cases, be analysed in a comprehensive programmatic, generic, orrepoiwl EIS is any agency carries out
a larger plan or program. As discussed in this report, such comprehensive EISs are required for many federal
actions that may be significantly affected by climate change. Far fewer requirements exist for comprehensive
EISs concerned with impacts on climate in the absence of agency mandates to prepare, for example, a national
energy program, or a regional transportation plan.
3-3
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Baldwin
Congress has explicitly excluded some agency actions from EIS requirements and therefore these are not
examined for EIS feasibility in this report. Notable among these exclusions are EPA s regulatory actions under
the Clean Air Act concerning emissions that may affect global climate.
Other EIS limitations are also important. Many basic agency decisions are not embraced by EISs under
NEPA such as budget requests to the Congress. For practical reasons agencies focus on the most measurable,
clearly documentedimpacts, and have limited time, resources, and uidmation to address long-term, speculative
impacts! EISs are required to address cumulative impacts, but the analysis is often difficult and their response
has often been weak.
1.3 LONG-RANGE PLANNING BY FEDERAL AGENCIES
Whether the EIS process can effectively address global climate impacts depends on the long-range
derisions an agency makes and how EIS requirements apply. Requirements for long-range planning by federal
agencies are edectic and often limited. Experience with federal actions that affect global climate are limited;
OS-like planning documents are especially rare. The Department of Energy prepares a biennial national energy
plan with no EIS or consideration of climate impacts. Most experience and the clearest requirements concern
actions likely to be affected by climate change. The Forest Service, for example, has an elaborate,
congressionally required long-range forest planning process integrated with EISs; national or river basin plans
are no longer required for federal water resource agencies since the abolition of the U.S. Water Resources
Council, but the Corps of Engineers conducts plans and EISs for water projects and some areawide EISs for
private permits affecting United States waters.
In the coastal zone, states establish plans and programs under the Coastal Zone Management Act, and
federal approval requires an EIS. Coastal development projects that fall within the Corps of Engineers
regulatory permit program, and projects located in the coastal zone, such as highways and airports (Department
of Transportation), and sewage treatment plants (EPA), are subject to environmental assessments or EISs. They
must be consistent with the federally approved coastal zone management plan.
Federal agencies carry out assessments and planning that do not require EISs, but these activities may
affect subsequent agency actions that do. The Department of Agriculture's appraisal of soil, water, and related
resources and trends on private lands does not require an EIS, but its data are reflected in project level actions
and EISs of the Department.
Many other federal actions may directly or indirectly affect energy use and global climate, including
agricultural subsidies and federal procurement policies, but they have not been subject to long-range planning
and EIS requirements.
International programs of the Agency for International Development (AID) often affect natural resources,
coastal zone conservation, and energy use and conservation. EISs are rare, but AID often prepares impact
assessments on AID projects. AID's project planning and approval documents may also address long-term
environmental impacts of program commitments. *
1.4 STUDY APPROACH
An underlying hypothesis of this study has been that EISs can be an important element in federal
responses to climate change issues given that they address the dominant causative agents as well as the mitigative
responses R|Sg intended to help decision makers and the public anticipate environmental problems,
SJSg planning and EIS processes should, presumably, help them assess impacts on, and effects from, global
warming.
To fvamine the feasibility of EIS consideration of global climate issues the study identified the range of
federal actions subject to NEPA that were reasonably related to climate effects. Included were plans, programs,
3-4
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Baldwin
regulatory actions, and projects concerning energy use and greenhouse gas emissions affecting global change and
actions affected by climate change. Because of the need to assess practical opportunities for, and barriers to,
the application of existing long-range planning/EIS processes to global climate change the study focused on
agencies having the most experience with long-range planning and EISs. For reasons noted above and discussed
below, the agencies selected are those whose actions concern impacts from, rather than on, global climate
change.
3-5
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Baldwin
CHAPTER 2
FEDERAL ACTIVITIES WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RELATIONSHIPS TO LONG-TERM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
This section briefly describes the federal policies, programs, plans, regulations, and projects that have a
potential effect on global climate change or which may be affected by such change. Actions and responsibilities
are included if they might increase C02 and other greenhouse gas emissions into the upper atmosphere, or may
be affected by sea level rise or changes in temperature, rainfall, and the water cycle. The Appendix supplements
this discussion by listing specific federal programs that are reasonably related to global climate change.
2.1 FEDERAL ACTIVITIES RELATED TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
2.1.1 Federal Energy Programs
Energy conservation programs of all kinds have direct relationships to activities that contribute to global
riimat- change. Although the Department of Energy's conservation programs are divided into separate
elements, they could be considered in the aggregate to assess their climatic effects. Policies affecting the mix
of fossil fuels used are also important. Federal policies that encourage the use of coal but discourage the use
of natural gas can contribute to the greenhouse problem; coal combustion, unlike natural gas combustion,
releases nitrous oxide.
The regional energy programs of the Bonneville Power Administration and the Tennessee Valley Authority
are important because they affect the basic energy use and conservation practices of entire regions.
energy production research into high energy and nuclear physics, magnetic fusion energy, hydrogen
fuel, and otter technologies are climate-related because they concern alternatives to fossil fuel Research and
development of these technologies could be addressed comprehensively to assess their-long-term climate impacts.
EPA's air quality regulatory programs, although exempt from EIS requirements, may have important
impacts on energy use and the emission of greenhouse gases.
11.2 Agricultural Programs
Global warming that could make the Midwest warmer and therefore drier, coupled with continued
competition for water for urban use, would affect federal agriculture commodity programs by reducing or
increasing supplies of wheat, corn, and other subsidized crops. Farm loan programs may be affected by climate
impacts on the economic health of farm families and enterprises.
Research programs of the Department of Agriculture could be affected by climate rhango and could be
important in helping to evaluate climate change effects. Examples include the Cooperative State Research
Service program for grants to land-grant colleges and universities, research programs of the Forest Service, and
the Soil Conservation Service's Plant Materials for Conservation program.
Changes in crop conditions in the West and Midwest may affect agricultural conservation and commodity
programs. Soil and Water Conservation Service programs in the Great Plains and western states may be
affected if increased drought exacerbates soil erosion. The same amount of conservation may require
considerably more funds for the same result under some global wanning conditions. On the other Hand,
commodity support programs can cost less if farmers produce less. Different costs and savings would result if
western rainfall increases, as some climate scenarios suggest.
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2.1.3 Public Lands and Wildlife Programs
Land use decisions of federal agencies, including the Departments of the Interior, Agriculture, and
Defense may be affected by climate changes that reduce rainfall and surface and groundwater resources.
Increasingly dry conditions in the West would affect forestry, reclamation, wildlife management, and many other
programs on and off public lands.
Priorities for acquisition of lands for federal agencies under the Land and Water Conservation Fund may
be affected by climate change as federal agencies identify lands.that may become more or less valuable for
recreation or protection. Potential impacts of climate change on endangered spedes habitat or migratory
waterfowl may be significant. Climate change may also affect priorities for better protection of ecosystems
through acquisition of easements, private in-holdings in public lands, and private lands outside existing
boundaries.
Most Interior Department activities on public land are project-specific, although park, refuge, and land
resource and range management programs can be important too. The project-specific actions on mines,
transmission lines, pipelines, and roads may be affected by climate change-through changes in precipitation,
wildlife habitat, reclamation potential-but they are not easily analyzed in terms of climate sensitivities.
2.1.4 Coastal Programs
Sea level rise is among the most certain effects of global climate warming, and coastal programs will have
the most predictable impacts. If sea level were to rise approximately 1 meter by the middle of the 21st century,
most coastal wetlands would be inundated and lost if upland development leaves no room for them to "migrate."
Existing shores of barrier islands and beaches will retreat. Present settlements will be flooded.
Many sewage treatment facilities, highways, railroads, waterfront developments, ports, and other facilities
constructed, funded, or licensed by federal agencies may be directly affected by coastal floods, erosion, salt water
intrusion, or higher water tables. Developments induced by this infrastructure in the coastal zone may also be
affected, including houses, condominiums, and businesses.
Coastal wetlands, parks, recreation areas, and urban developments are all affected by many federal actions.
These include navigation improvements; harbor dredging; small stream channelization; impoundments for flood
control; coastal erosion control projects; sewage treatment facilities; highway and airport construction and
expansion; permits for industrial, commercial, and recreational projects; onshore oil and gas facilities and
pipelines, and bridges; and federal mortgage guarantees for housing developments. Msyor agencies involved in
these programs are the Departments of Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Commerce,
and EPA. The Corps of Engineers affects coastal wetlands through its own water resource projects and by
regulating dredge and fill actions of private parties. Federal agencies with jurisdiction and expertise, such as
EPA and the Fish and Wildlife Service, routinely review and comment on EISs affecting coastal wetlands.
2.1.5 Inland Water Resource Programs
Wetland protection programs of all agencies may be affected by climate change. Reductions or increases
in rainfall in parts of the country will affect the numbers and size erf many typ«8 of wetlands. Changes in
inundation or saturation patterns would alter soil and vegetation conditions. Warmer temperatures may create
drier conditions despite greater rainfall. Areas uow defined as wetlands may not qualify as wetlands in the
tuture. Federal programs under §404, the "Swamobuster" mom-am. and manv others, may be directly affected.
» W^teJ devel°pment programs and priorities may De suosiamiauy ailected by climate change that
affects rainfall, surface and ground water, but precisely what these effects may be is unclear. Projects for water
conservation, irrigation drainage, and cleanup of contaminated wetlands may aU be affected by global warmina.
as may navigation improvement and maintenance programs.
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The National Wild and Scenic Rivers Program, managed by the National Park Service and the U.S. Forest
Service, was designed to protect the values of significant free-flowing rivers and streams in the UJS. Since 1968
more than 7,000 miles of river have been added to the system, protected from federally supported or licensed
water resource management activities. Priorities for protection may need to respond to changes in regional
water cycles, stream flows, and other hydrologic conditions.
2.1.6 Federal Construction
Federal grants for construction of highway systems by the states constitute the largest single federal
construction expenditure-about $13 billion in FY 87. Airport construction assistance, nearly $1 billion in FY
87, is another important item. Environmental groups have often criticized both programs for their
encouragement of fossil fuel use. These and other federal construction actions may be directly or indirectly
affected by sea level rise.
2.1.7 Disaster and Emergency Assistance
Federal programs for emergency assistance to state and local governments and individuals may become
increasingly important with increased incidence of drought in the Great Plains states, or flooding in coastal states
or elsewhere. Although the programs themselves are inherently short-term, they are uotentiallv imnortant
because funding levels may need to increase with progressive climate change that places pSple and pro£rty at
risk from droughts and sea level rise. ^ H F ^ J
2.1.8 Housing and Urban Development
Global climate change may diminish property values in areas adversely affected by drought sea-level
change, or other related economic impacts. Costs of mortgage insurance „r X. ;T.^' , 1
Development Department, which are designed to insure lenders against moSe lo«el^,ea?OUS,n8 "f
win certainly be affected in areas vulnerable to flooding and erosion from higher seas.' UKreasc- ProPerty
adversely affected by climate changes. Low income home buildimr aivt population growth m areas
programs may be affected by changed economic activity caused by Jjfobal climate cEg? development
21.9 Hazardous Waste
2.1.10 Foreign Development Aid Assistance
Federal development aid programs can also affect, or be affected by, global climate change. The Agency
for International Development (AID) provides technical assistance and grants and loans concerned with
agricultural development, coastal zone management (Ecuador, Thailand, Sri Lanka), protection of biological
diversity and wildlife, energy conservation, and infrastructure development, such as housing and sewage
treatment facilities. The Forest Sendee, Fish and Wildlife Service, and National Park Service provide resource
management training to developing countries. In addition, the United States is the largest contributor to the
multilateral development banks that support large-scale programs in energy, agriculture, and urban and rural
development. The Department of the Treasury, in cooperation with the State Department and other agencies,
determines the kinds of multidonor projects the United States will support and the environmental analysis
needed for informed development aid decisions. Recently the Treasury Department has been working with
environmental organizations to develop guidelines for assessing the impacts of World Bank projects on tropical
forests and wetlands.
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2.2 RELATIONSHIP OF THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT TO THESE FEDERAL
ACTIVITIES
The feasibility of using EISs to assess global climate change impacts depends on the scope and duration
of the federal action. An action that will have little discernible effect beyond 10 years is, at this stage, relatively
insignificant. Simple program or engineering readjustments may be possible to avoid future adverse climatic
effects on short-term federal actions. But a commitment to build a structure, develop a technology, make a plan,
or take other actions likely to remain for 30 to 50 years or more may be significantly affected by climate changes
occurring by the middle of the next century. Actions affecting a longer period, such as storage of nuclear waste,
or actions directly or indirectly affecting the long-term existence of a species or a large natural ecosystem, may
be most important to assess for climatic impacts.
Discussed below are examples of federal actions covered by NEPA that have potentially significant
relationships to global climate change. Actions include plans, programs, regulations, ami site-specific actions
that may be subject to long-range planning and EIS requirements.
2.3 FEDERAL ACTIONS AFFECTING EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES
2.3.1 Policies
The federal action allowing the most comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and their climate
effects is the Department of Energy's biennial National Energy Policy Plan. This "plan" is not, however, directed
toward an action program, and it has not been incorporated into the EIS process. The last plan, in 1986, did not
mention climate impacts of energy use. Similarly, the DOE report, Energy Security, prepared under §3102 of
Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986, did not mention climatic effects of energy policies.
2.3.2 Programs
The Department of Energy's Clean Coal Technology Program spends over $300 million annually to
support coal technology research and demonstration plants. DOE conducted an in-house analysis of the
emissions of each coal technology as if it were fully deployed without economic constraints. It did not prepare
an EIS because of statutory limitations of time and to protect project confidentiality. The EIS process may be
used in future programs, however, depending on congressional action.
Regulatory program actions concerning energy may also require EISs. Examples include regulations of
the Department of the Interior significantly affecting surface mining reclamation, outer continental shelf oil and
gas production, and Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations on nuclear power.
2.3.3 Projects
Many individual projects subject to EISs affect the contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
These include nonfossil fuel projects, like nuclear power plants licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Agency and
small hydroelectric facilities licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and coal- or oil-fired
generating facilities that require regulatory permits from the Corps of Engineers, EPA, and other federal
agencies. Because the impacts of individual projects on global climate change may be insignificant, regional or
programmatic EISs can be used to give agencies a limited means to address some potentially important
cumulative impacts of project decisions.
2.4 FEDERAL ACTIONS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
2.4.1 Plans/Programs
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Two major long-range planning programs and assessments fall in this category: the Resource Planning
Act Program of the UJS. Forest Service, and the Resource Conservation Act Appraisal of the Soil Conservation
Service.
The Forest Service Resource Planning Act (RPA^ Assessment and Program. The RPA Program, updated
every 5 years, establishes a Forest Service plan for 191 million acres of National Forests and Grasslands and
for Forest Service activities affecting state and private forests over the next 50 years. It is subject to the EIS
requirement.
The RPA Program relies on scientific information and analysis in the Assessment, which must be made
every 10 years and which is not subject to the EIS requirement. The 1979 Assessment and Supplement
addressed water supply and demand issues, among other resource problems. These documents discussed
jm-roaging water scarcity in the 17 major river basins in 11 states in the Southwest and Midwest and widespread
reductions in groundwater supply.
The documents assumed continuation of past climate patterns. The 1985 RPA Program established goals
for the Forest Service to meet demands for timber, wilderness, water quality, wildlife, and other forest outputs
without reference to impacts of climate change over the next 50 years. Although the Forest Service Research
Program may become more active in climate issues in the near future, the 1990 RPA Assessment and Program
assumes the continuation of past climate patterns.
r psnnrri? mn^rvatinn Act (RCA). This act requires the Department of Agriculture to undertake (in
1980,1985, and every 10 years thereafter) an appraisal of soil, water, and related resources on the 15 billion
acres of UJS. private land. Agricultural emissions can also be addressed. Although the appraisal is not an EIS,
it is subject to public review in draft, and the RCA requires the Department of Agriculture to respond to the
assessment in its programs and projects, such as those of the Soil Conservation Service concerning water
resource and agricultural development projects.
The 1987 draft of the second RCA Appraisal (the Department is behind schedule) focuses on "conditions
that have potential for limiting the capability of our resources to meet our needs." Among its conclusions
relevant to climate considerations are the following;
~ Salinization is lowering productivity in arid and semiarid lands;
~ Most non-federal rangeland is in poor or fair condition;
~ We are using more water, including groundwater, than we have supply in arid, semiarid regions;
~ Irrigation water should be used more efficiently;
~ Upstream flood damages are increasing in rural areas;
~ Atmospheric deposition is causing problems and "popular concern."
The 1987 draft RCA Assessment notes that its projections do not include effects on yields from ozone
ohangpg or other atmospheric pollutants. It does not discuss potential climatic impacts.
2.4.2 Regional Programs
Federal agencies make resource commitments for regional programs and projects that are subject to long-
range funding and environmental analysis.
rn-tri zone plans. The Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 allows states to receive federal grant
support for coastal zone management plans that meet the act's requirements for managing economic
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development and implementing conservation practices. The federal government has approved 30 coastal zone
management plans states and territories. Each plan has been accompanied by an EIS. One of the strongest
inducements for state plans is the act's requirement that subsequent federal actions must be consistent with the
approved plan. EISs on individual federal proposals in the coastal zone routinely address this question of
consistency.
State coastal plans are not required to address sea level rise issues, but they can, and states may amend
them to do so.
Energy-related river basin programs of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Bonneville Power
Administration (BPA) are subject to EISs. Programs subject to NEPA are carried out by the BPA on the
Columbia River Basin, and by TVA in the Tennessee River Valley.
River basin planning and management and navigation projects, and irrigation projects. Although the
federal government no longer routinely supports large-scale, comprehensive river basin plans, large river
management and irrigation projects require long-range studies and EISs. Recent examples of regional projects
include the Garrison Diversion Unit, Pick-Sloan Missouri Basin Program, and Multipurpose Water Project of
the Bureau of Reclamation. Regional river basin planning is carried out by the Delaware River Basin
Commission, the Interstate Commission for the Potomac River, and other interstate commissions.
2.43 Site-Specific Plans or Projects
National Forest Management Plans. Plans required for each national forest under the 1976 National
Forest Management Act are subject to EISs and must be reviewed every 10 to IS years. The plans are basic
guides for allocating uses within each forest, including long-range timber harvest schedules, road development,
and decisions to cut old growth timber. Each document can incorporate climate impacts on a regional basis into
the plan, but none does so now.
Resource Management Plans. The Bureau of Land Management, responsible for managing over 400
million acres of public land, prepares comprehensive land-use plans under the Federal Land Policy and
Management Act of 1976. The plans resemble forest plans in scope, are subject to EIS requirements, and must
be amended or revised as needed. All BLM actions must be consistent with the approved plans. Citizens
participate through the NEPA scoping process and comments on the draft plan/EIS. More than half of BLM*s
public lands are in the 11 contiguous states of the West, and most BLM land is rangeland. Climate change
impacts have not been incorporated into BLM plans.
Habitat Conservation Plans. The Endangered Species Act amendments of 1982 requires permits from the
Secretary of the Interior for private actions that might result in the "incidental taking" of habitat that miEy
jeopardize the survival of a threatened or endangered species. Permits require compliance with a Fish and
Wildlife Service Habitat Conservation Plan. Such plans have been necessary for large development projects at
San Bruno Mountain, California, and Key Largo, Florida. Four more are being prepared to protect the Least
Bell's Vireo in what is essentially a comprehensive plan for the protection of riparian areas in San Diego County,
California. Unlike the approximately 200 species recovery plans of the Service, Habitat Conservation Plans »re
subject to EIS requirements.
Public works projects. Many coastal projects subject to EIS requirements have a long-term life and may
be significantly affected by rising sea levels. These include highways (Federal Highway Administration), beach
erosion control, harbor improvements or levee construction (Corps of Engineers), or public land management
projects, such as the National Park Service proposal for protection of the Cape Hatteras Light House.
Water supply projects. The Corps of Engineers, under §404 of the Clean Water Act, must authorize
reservoir and water supply projects affecting US. waters. A recent example is the Corps §404 permit evaluation
and EIS on the proposed Metropolitan Denver Water Supply Project to meet Denver's water needs through the
year 2035. The EIS assumed continuation of past precipitation and other climate patterns.
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Nuclear waste programs. Nuclear waste disposal sites are subject to EIS requirements. Because of long-
term impacts the Department of Energy has included climate change factors in EISs on uranium mill tailing
disposal and nuclear waste from the Hanford Defense site.
2.4.4 Foreign Assistance Programs
Programs of the Agency for International Development (AID) are subject to NEPA, and, although few
actions require EISs, environmental assessments are occasionally needed. AID grant or loan commitments of
5 or more years may address programs such as energy conservation, coastal zone management, biological
diversity, or programs concerned with desert encroachment or deforestation of tropical forests. Long-term AID
projects may concern agricultural, sewage treatment or other actions in coastal regions highly vulnerable to rising
sea levels, such as the heavily populated Nile and Ganges deltas.
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CHAPTER 3
EXAMINATION OF SELECTED FEDERAL AGENCY LONG-RANGE PLANNING
AND EIS PRACTICES
General appmarh. This section evaluates a selected group of federal planning and EIS processes relevant
to future impacts of temperature increases, precipitation changes, and sea level rise. The following topics are
analyzed:
~ Water resource planning and assessment processes of the Corps of Engineers for flood control, navigation
improvement, and other Corps planning processes concerned with private permits affecting UJS. waters;
~ National forest manag»Tn»nt plans and Resource Planning Act programs carried out by the Forest Service;
~ Refuge management and endangered species programs of the Fish and Wildlife Service;
~ Coastal construction, protection, and permit actions of federal agencies that may be affected by sea level
rise.
To illustrate »*i«ting long-range planning and EIS processes and their potential application to climate
impact issues, have been chosen from among current federal actions on which EISs have been
prepared within the past 12 months. The examples show how statutory differences affect the scope of agency
decisions and the nature of EISs, and how these factors may affect greater consideration of climate issues in the
future.
3.1 THE UJS. FOREST SERVICE
The National Forest System. The United States has 1.6 billion acres of forest and range lands. Of these,
the National Forest System contains 191 million acres, including about 20 million acres in Alaska. Although
about three-fourths of the remainder are in the 11 western contiguous states, constituting about one-fifth of the
land there, the system includes land in nearly every state. National forests provide about 25 percent of our
national demand for timber per year. They include approximately 157 of the 261 identified ecosystem types in
the United States in wilderness areas (Davis, 1987). More recreation takes place on these lands than any other
public lands, including our national parks, amounting to 43% of visitor hours for all federal recreation lands.
Because climate change may significantly affect these forest resources in the long-term, the question is whether
and how it might be addressed in existing planning and EIS processes.
3.1.1 The Forest Service Planning and EIS Process
With passage of the Resource Planning Act of 1974, Congress ratified the Forest Service's national
planning approach, and with the National Forest Management Act of 1976 it established specific requirement^
for forest planning processes for each national forest in the 191 million-acre National Forest System. The Forest
Service subsequently integrated its NEPA process into these planning requirements.
The Resource Planning Act As Amended
This act required the Forest Service to establish a periodic, long-term Renewable Resource Program,
based on a periodic Renewable Resource Assessment of the nation's forest, range, and associated renewable
resources. The purpose of these requirements was to "promote a sound technical and ecological base for
effective management, use, and protection of the Nation's renewable resources" (§2(4)). Congress declared that
because most forest and rangeland was in private and other non-federal ownership, the federal government
should be a "catalyst" to help other landowners manage their resources efficiently over the long-term. The
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Assessment and Program can help states and other entities plan the protection and management of renewable
resources on non-federal land.
Renewable Resource Assessment. Congress required the Assessment to be prepared in 1975, 5 years
later, and every 10 years thereafter. The Assessment was to include analyses of renewable resource supply and
demand. Because the Assessment does not recommend agency action it is not subject to the EIS requirement
of NEPA. Nevertheless, the Assessment results are included in Forest Service EISs. The Assessment also offers
an opportunity for the Forest Service to examine basic assumptions and alternative program directions for its
50-year period. The Forest Service has prepared two resource assessments since 1974 as required: one in 1975
and another (draft and final) in 1980, which was supplemented in 1985. It is now preparing the 1990
Assessment.
Renewable Resource Frftrfl'Hl Congress required a Program to be sent by the President to the Congress
that responds to findings of the Assessment. The Program must respond to the "principles" of the Multiple-
Use Sustained Yield Act of 1960 and to NEPA. It must be submitted every 5 years, beginning in 1975, and it
must cover the ensuing 50-year period. The Program must include, among other features, an inventory of needs
and opportunities for public and private investments, specific Program outputs, benefits, and costs, and
recommendations concerning objectives and opportunities to improve forest and range resources. Renewable
Resource Programs have been prepared every 50 years since 1975. The third and latest Forest Service Program,
prepared in 1985, addresses renewable resource program directions from 1985 to 2030.
Each year the President must send Congress reports on how his proposed budget would meet the policies
of the Program, Assessment, and policies of the Forest Service.
The National Forest Management Act
The National Forest Management Act (NFMA) of 1976 required long-range, integrated resource plans
for each unit of the National Forest System. Congress required that forest plans must be revised at least every
15 years (EIS requirement), include multiple use concepts, identify lands not suitable for timber hanging
prohibit harvesting on such lands for 10 years, and review such land classifications eveiy 10 years. In addition,
Forest plans must comply with NEPA.
In addition, the forest plans must comply with regulations developed with the advice of a Committee of
Scientists. Congress required that the regulations must ensure, among other things, provision for the following:
diversity of plant and animal communities; research and field monitoring to protect apain«t Qf
productivity; intensified forestry consistent with the Multiple Use and Sustained Yield Act; protection of soil,
slope and watershed conditions; assured reforestation within 5 years after timber harvest; protection for streams!
streambanks, shorelines, lakes, wetlands and other water bodies where timber harvests might adversely affect
water conditions and fish habitat; and protection of forests from specified adverse effects of clearcuttine and
other silvicultural harvesting practices. *
By March 1988, approximately 83 out of 123 plans had been issued in final form, and 40 had been released
in draft for public review.
The Forest Service has a regional level planning program, which it has added by its own remlatiom that
results in a Regional Guide to help each National Forest unit implement the Program. The Rerionai :«
not itself the subject of an EIS. regional uuiae is
3.1.2 The Planning Process in Practice
Case Example: The Forest Service Forest Planning and EIS Process
in the Nez Perce National Forest
Individual forest plans and EISs assess alternative management programs over a 10- to 1 War
The Nez Perce National Forecast Plan and EIS (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1987), compie^ToSSter'
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1987 offers a good example of this process, and one that EPA's own review found to be of high quality (Kaldjian,
personal communication). Like other forest plans, the purpose of the Nez Perce plan and EIS was to provide
specific direction for projected timber sale levels, monitoring requirements, and other standards and guidelines,
for a maximum of 15 years. The plan/EIS is, however, only a guide to timber and other output levels, which
may be changed as external demand conditions change.
The forest resources. The Nez Perce National Forest contains over 2.2 million acres in Idaho County,
Idaho, covering steep and rugged, high-elevation forests in a climate made milder than its high latitude because
of Pacific Ocean climatic effects. Its streams are important to the anadromous fishery of the Columbia River,
and it provides nationally important habitat for elk, among other wildlife. It contains the Gospel-Hump
Wilderness and parts of three other wilderness areas, in addition to four wUd and scenic rivers. Over the past
decade the forest provided an average of nearly 100 million board feet of timber annually.
The Nez Perr* plannino/KTS process. The process officially began with a public Notice of Intent to
prepare a plan and EIS in October 1979. It ended 8 years later with completion of a final EIS and publication
of a Record of Decision by the Regional Forester. During that time the Forest Service dealt constantly with the
public and identified over 800 public concerns that were reduced to 13 major issues.
To develop alternatives the Forest Sendee began with the alternatives required by regulations or policy,
such as maintaining the current program, classifying all roadless areas as wilderness, and several others. These
were then analyzed to determine where they fit in the range of forest outputs: timber, fisheries, wildlife habitat,
water quality, minerals, and recreation.
The Nez Perce example illustrates the complexity and importance of Forest Service planning/EIS
processes and how they might in the future respond to climate change. The process allows the Forest Service
to make »^nir,r„nt decisions over a decade or more concerning the production, biological makeup, appearance,
and economy of the forest based on the results. In Nez Perce the Forest Service chose an alternative that is
targeted to produce 11 million board feet more each year than the previous decade's average. It designated
140,000 acres as unsuitable for timber production, made areas available for mineral development, planned
anadromous fish habitat management to achieve 87% of its potential, and planned 830 miles of additional roads.
Climate factors were not addressed in this plan/EIS, but future climate changes could affect Forest Service
decisions on timber sales and its confidence in reforestation.
3.1 J Applicability of the Forest Service's EIS Process to Global Climate Issues
Global climate issues have not yet been addressed in the Forest Service planning process, either at the
national, regional, or forest level. Opportunities for doing so exist in the future, however, at each of these levels.
Assumptions uncivilly Assessment. Climate change was not mentioned in the RPA Assessment,
either among the explicit assumptions or elsewhere. Assumptions that climate patterns of the past would
continue into the future are implicit throughout the Assessment. An example is the conclusion that precipitation
patterns of the past would continue, although it noted the wide regional variability of precipitation from year to
year.
The Assessment does state at the outset, however, the assumptions that the Forest Servicebelieves will
influence future demand and supply trends up to the year 2031 As modified by the 1984 Supplement, they are
increases in population, gross national product, and per capita disposable income. It assumed tint energy costs
would increase relative to other general prices, that capital would be available to increase renewable resource
supplies, that institutional and technological changes of the past would continue, and that demands lor forest and
range resources would increase.
TWm»nt nf dhwate jfppacts the 1989 Assessment. The 1989 Assessment, now under
prcpnraSforfinS in "Corner of 1988.willfollow the same basic approach as earlier i
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assume tne cumaie patterns 01 iuc poai. x-oj »>»»"»; ——j , .
made.
Even without this model, however, the Assessment could develop regional guidelines on climate change
scenarios and forest impacts that each forest unit should consider in developing their plans. More than the RPA
Program, the Forest Service may be most receptive to future use of the Assessment as a guide to Forest Sendee
response'to climate change (Ketcham, personal communication).
Addressing rlimatp issues at the Forest level. Although opportunities exist to address climate impacts in
EISs prepared on regional guides of the Forest Service, as required by the National Forest Management Act,
climate impact analysis may be most meaningful when it can be addressed at the forest level. Major forest
changes are possible if temperatures rise and conditions are drier or wetter. Simple scenarios of this kind may
be speculative now, but the Nez Perce experience suggests that they can be considered in the future. For
example, Forest plans and EISs might first identify the forest resources likely to be most sensitive or resilient
to climate impacts in the particular region, such as fisheries and water quantity and quality, old growth habitat,
and other timber inventory. Then they could assess the sensitivity of these resources to different climate
scenarios that appear reasonable in the region. Lastly, they could establish rigorous monitoring programs to
assess ongoing experience with reforestation, rehabilitation of wildlife habitat, water quality, improvement, and
protection of biological diversity, to ensure rapid response to changed environmental conditions during the 10-
to 15-year plan.
Responding to climate Issues within the Resource Program. The RPA can address program effects based
on data in the Assessment. Further analysis should be made of ways in which future Resource Programs could
address climate impacts that might affect forest resource outputs. The Program might, for example, guide
federal, state, and private monitoring of reforestation, and protection of gene pools, endangered species, and
ecosystems that may be affected by climatic change.
3.2 THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS CIVIL WORKS PROGRAM
^ysponsibilities. The Corps Civil Works Program has historically focused on providing navigational
improvements, flood control, hydropower, and coastal shoreline protectioa More than a century ago the Corps
was charged with reducing flooding and improving navigation in the lower Mississippi River basin. Its
jurisdiction expanded to include authority to develop a national inland waterway system, regulate discharge of
refuse into and obstructions to navigable waters, and to establish comprehensive hydrologic data *»»«•« long-
range models to project flood peaks and durations, soil erosion and sedimentation rates, coastal water levels, and
other information useful for project design studies. In recent decades, municipal water supply and aquatic
recreation have been added as additional purposes of Corps multipurpose projects.
andVed estate management, and disposal actions'. Becaise of their differing SEE
NEPA processes are summarized separately. v J regulatory
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3.2.1 Water Resource Projects
Water Resource Planning and the EIS Process
The project planning process begins with an initial survey by the Corps that examines a specific water
resource problem and possible remedies. If a project looks favorable and has local, state, and congressional
support, a feasibility study will examine project economics, social and environmental impacts, and specific design
alternatives. The Corps will then seek congressional authorization for a project. Upon congressional author-
ization, the Corps will continue to prepare more detailed engineering studies and design. It will seek
construction appropriations if local and state project financing continues, and when it is ready to acquire land
and hiiilri
Frinqptes end Gviteto for Water Reswrre Protects
The Principles and Guidelines is a policy document that establishes national objectives for niann?n,»
evaluating federally sponsored water resource projects, but not regulatory actions. The document 1m JS!!
tnrough several changes, from standards to regulations to guidelines, since the early 1970S, and the nre«»tit
was adopted in 1983. The Principles and Guidelines require every Corps planning document to analw™
number of factors in specific ways. For example, they require projects to be examined for economicTJi
environmental benefits and costs. They establish a number of economic criteria for computing economic hJLr!
and costs, including the discount rate for benefit-cost analyses, which is now established at nearly 9% Tk
discount rate significantly affects the long-term economic viability of projects. When the discount rate k hi«vf
to have a positive benefit to cost ratio projects must have relatively low initial costs and relatively hi
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Baldwin
resource planning documents, and Corps EISs appear to be tenuous, however, even though individual EISs on
projects often reveal the importance of broader studies and planning data in developing proposals or alternatives.
Even though climate change is not formally and separately integrated into the Corps' planning process,
the Corps does analyze hydrological, ecological, social, and economic impacts in detail through engineering
design studies that focus on project performance, reliability, and risk-cost effectiveness. Such analyses are now
routinely conducted for most alternative solutions recommended by the Corps, including nonstructural flood
warning and evacuation plans. These analyses assume a steady-state climate, but project designs may incorporate
the climate variations likely to occur during a project's lifetime.
One example of a major Corps project with significance to climate change issues is the New Orleans to
Venice Hurricane Protection Project, for which a final supplemental EIS was recently prepared. (The case is
discussed in Section 3.4, Coastal Zone Management.) In that case an alternative levee protection scheme
developed 10 years after completion of a Final EIS, in 1986. The recommended new plan reflected information
developed by the Corps on downstream importance of natural accretion of sediment from the Mississippi.
Although it did not address future climate change as such, coastal subsidence and sea level rise were major
concerns.
3.2.2 Regulatory Program
FpnP!t Requirements
Permits are required from the Corps of Engineers for the construction of dams, dikes, or other structures
in or over U.S navigable waters under the Rivers and Harbors Act of 1899. Permits are also required for the
discharge of dredged and fill material into waters of the United States (a more inclusive category) under §404
of the Clean Water Act, and the Corps must comply with Guidelines prepared by the Environmental Protection
Agency. The Corps receives and reviews about 14,000 permit applications annually, nearly all for small projects.
NfrPA Process
Because Corps permit actions are subject to NEPA it routinely carries out environmental assessments,
from checklists to lengthy analyses, or EISs. From 1970 through 1986 the Corps prepared about 1,800 final EISs
under the Civil Works program, of which 404 concerned regulatory permits. Approximately 20 permit EISs were
prepared in 1986, down from a high of 51 in 1975, constituting about half of the total Corps EISs that year
(Studt, personal communication).
The Corps relies on its permit applicant to provide most of the data necessary to evaluate needs for a
typical EIS evaluation, and although it is responsible for the content of any EES it relies heavily on the applicant's
data and consulting reports. EISs on large projects, however, such as an industrial plant or airport, require the
Corps to gather and analyze data, entailing substantial commitments of Corps staff and resources.
Scope of the NEPA process. The Corps must often analyze the significant environmental impacts of an
entire project rather than the impacts of the particular pier or other construction element that requires a
regulatory permit. Recent revisions of the Corps' NEPA procedures allow the Corps to limit its EIS analysis to
the significant impacts of the action requiring a permit. Where there is substantial federal involvement in the
proposed project the analysis is enlarged.
Comprehensive Regulatory Studies
The Corps often faces practical problems in trying to evaluate cumulative impacts of regulatory permit
proposals in a particular area, so it has supported comprehensive analyses that can lead to better and more
efficient, regulatory decisions. In particular it has encouraged the development of Special Area Management
Plans, primarily in the coastal zone, as discussed in Section 3.4. It has also supported comprehensive EISs
inland that can help the Corps and local communities Identify long-range needs and obiectiws Th» Trinitv
River Regional EIS is an excellent recent example. J WS< ine lrumy
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Baldwin
Case example of an areawide EIS - Trinity River Regional EIS
„ _ .ta iqRil in rpsnonse to concerns of local government officials, the Corps Fort Worth
The problem- In l^e 1984, in information to evaluate, as required by NEPA, the cumulative
District determined that ittheLment proposals for the Trinity River and tributaries in Dallas, Denton,
impacts of the many unrelated devdop^ p po^y^ai maj0r projects within the previous 10 years,
and Tarrant Counties, Texas. The mnre nermit applications for river or floodplain modifications. Increased
others not yet built, and it exPe^l°° ]*_ hadreduced the flood control capacity of tributary levees and
runoff and reduced storage cap8*3*? UP*£. oualitv ^jlife habitat was also in danger of being lost. Because
increased flood dangers do^tre^.Highq ^ possibilities, with related economic and environmental
they individually or cumulatively atfec^ flood differ^ region development aceoarta.
impacts, the Corps looked for a practical way w «=«««
_ ~ anH th(, local governments favored a planning approach using a regional
The EIS prww- Th® , ^ obtain essential public participation through the scoping and
EIS to develop and Sli^de> to°l£d. The Corps agreed that the North
comment process, and help coordl"J ® , hJJd serve as the convener of the many affected city and county
1987.
developments. No r
development scenarios
§404 permits in the floouwajr image uwj, •••» a ™ ¦ r—
including greenways, recreation, and habitat protection.
The studv concluded, first, that there was widespread lack of protection!against the Standard Project
Flood--the m Jsevere likdy to occur in the area-wWch might cover nearly 70,0)0 acres, including 15,000 acres
of residential or commercial/ industrial property,
Second, it found that Corps permitting
development of 1800 acres within the zone. Other findings concerned vaUey storage iweds and opportunities
and comparisons between Federal Emergency Management Authonty flo^way delineations, which were
intended to limit a rise in the 100-year flood water surface elevation, and the effects of mandatory limits on
Se maS tad***** would actually achieve the result intended.
3,2.3 Applicability of the Planning/ElS Processes to Global Climate Issues
T»a^n„af. —nrphonsive planning PTPKWM for WUCT fWQWM PTPfofr K global climate change
Studies mav need to rive more attention to regional river basin impacts in order to support individual Corps'
toe* Senta, the Corp, i. no. m**o, regtoa,
planning. The Corps has extensive
mechanisms are increasingly focused on specific projects. They do not address Droad-scale mues. problems,
needs, and changes affecting rivet basins.
change on 7he
coace^r^
information and for formulating choices
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Baldwin
a subject of debate since the early 1970s. Arguments have been made that the Principles and Guidelines are so
detailed, comprehensive, and rigorous in their planning and evaluation requirements that they incorporate EIS
requirements and make EISs unnecessary, as a practical matter. Indeed, the Corps typically conducts detailed
technical analyses for its design studies, and environmental considerations have been integrated into decision
processes at early and continuous stages, which is one of the goals of NEPA. On the other hand, the EIS
remains practically valuable as a document that requires full disclosure of impacts and alternatives to interested
members of the public, the Congress, and to other government agencies at all levels. Although it may only
summarize analyses made in more detailed documents, it offers invaluable opportunities for public understanding
of, and participation in, the choice of alternatives. Given the political as well as technical choices that may be
posed by long-term projects potentially affected by climate change, the EIS process can be an asset to decision
makers too.
For example, an EIS on a large-scale flood control or reservoir project with a lifetime of 50 years or more
can be made useful to decision makers and the public. It can display an alternative that would show the
protection levels of a project, or other water resource benefits, such as a more flexible, more resilient flood
control system, that might exist under scenarios of more or less rainfall, earlier snowmelt, and so forth. Based
on comments received on an EIS, the decision maker might decide that the costs of trying to accommodate
future uncertainties, including more severe extreme floods, are not justified. He might determine that higher
levees, for example, could adversely affect coastal wetlands deemed publicly valuable, or that higher prices for
water might stimulate water conservation that could reduce structural requirements until forecasts of future
climate conditions were more reliable. Short of becoming an impractical, speculative document, an EIS on a
Corps (or other governmental) water project can also disclose to the public the risks related to climate change,
the uncertainties posed by present climate information, and the implications of these factors for public decisions
on water resource use. As climate research is able to focus increasingly on the practical concerns of engineers,
planners, taxpayers, and property owners, these EISs can offer a practical outlet for data and analysis carried out
in other studies.
Reassessment of principles and guidelines. To respond in advance to long-term climate changes the Corps
and the other water resource agencies may need to reassess the Principles and Guidelines. Another problem
is the impact of high discount rates. A project intended to protect an urban area from rising sea level in SO to
100 years is unlikely to be justified by present discount rates. The economic bases for project justification is
not sensitive to long-term slow changes in environmental conditions and values.
Long-term regional olanning/EIS capabilities in the regulatory program. The Trinity River EIS illustrates
how the Corps' permit program can support local interest in areawide planning for long-term use of floodplains
and waterways where no comprehensive planning capability previously existed. The Corps was open to the
regional EIS because comprehensive planning approaches appeared more practical and cost-effective than its
usual case-by-case permit review, which has proved especially weak in addressing cumulative impacts. Strong
local government and public support for a regional approach was essential, however. Such approaches are
infrequent because Corps use of regional EISs and Special Area Management Plans is limited by tight
congressional budgets for its regulatory program (Studt, personal communication).
Opportunities and needs to address climate change in Corps Planning/EIS nrivw^ Although the Coras'
ElS/plaiuiing process is often ad hoe, the Corps' capacity to conduct comprehensive long-range studies and EISs
is extensive. Its integration of environmental factors into water resource planning over the past 20 vears
illustrates its ability to adjust to new data and public concerns about environmental impacts. These concerns
have strongly affected Corps projects; of the 600 water resource planning studies subjected to feasibility mvirlt
between 1976 and 1987, only about 10% were authorized for construction, and still fewer have
appropriations. received
In the future there appears to be no procedural or analytical barrier to explicit climate analvsi* in r™™
project level and regulatory permit EISs where proposals will have long-term impacts. Proiect-level FTsVLnH
regional or areawide EISs on regulatory proposals can address climate change scenarios and relate thim » "T
specific impacts. Although climate factors were not analyzed in the Trinity River EIS, thev couldh»™ kI.
based on information gathered in other studies by the Corps. The Trinity River EIS explained the wicertaiS
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Baldwin
, . , . . nattpmv based on oast climate records, and it could easily have examined the
development options to climate changes. Witt adequate fa.di« similar EIS analyses
STS^deUe»here in the couitry where local governments have concern about long-tern, areaw.de
approaches to floodplain and water resource use.
3.3 THE FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
3.3.1 The National Wildlife Refuge System
». U M mt WildUfe ^JffiiJZ^SSEEKl
»St7 mSS SftaAtata Anotffi 1.7 million acres are in Waterfowl Production Areas. Individual
refuges range in size from a half acre to 22 million acres.
_ , thp first conBTAMinnal authorization in 1905, and refuges were steadily
The system grew ^^^JfshedSous mechanisms for funding the Secretary of the Interior's
added by congressional arts. Congr_ ^ expanded the FWS authority to acquire refuge lands to protect
management and acquisjlionofreug been established by Congress with others created under
endangered spec.es. ^pr<™at^rM«f^« ^ ^ ^ ^ WeM
provisions of various other acts, wauoiuu
„f Dpfiiaes. Refuges require careful management by the FWS according to
Environmental MffflfflgnKnt fll outside ^p^s, Outside threats include pesticide and other
their purposes and the si^ificance °f _ rhm»nt, and successional changes in habitat that may affect
pollution, changes in hydrology, J""? . n„rtjcu]ariy wetlands and water resources, to protect or enhance
species composition. It may modiiy , ' . SDecjes /for example, the Atwater Prairie Chicken National
species of particular concern, Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge in Maryland), or large
Wildlife Refuge in Texas), migrstfory o tana\ Refuge management may include programs to allow
mammals (the National Bison production, timber harvesting), hunting for birds and animals,
economic use (for cattle grazuifeod andIgM]P^^^ty of recreational activities. These uses may be
subsistence hunting by rural t^e proposed use is compatible with the purpose of the refuge
permitted if the refuge manaSer£fer™ ions . ^ receipts from these economically contribute to local
(Audubon Wildlife Report, 1987). roroo "naftiral" management prevails on the 67 refuge wilderness
governments in lieu of property taxes, jusss biological diversity on nearly 5 million acres of scientific
area* of nearly 20 mMon acres. ManJ^eo.^1^ Tedm4 Assessment, 1987).
reserves has become increasingly important to uw r
3.3.2 The Refuge Planning and EIS Process
_ . Am nr,* have a statutory long-term directive like the National
The National Wildlife Refuge 0f ^ FWS Refuge Manual. FWS actions are
Forest System. Refuges are maiwg afKj programs are regularly addressed in EISs.
subject to NEPA, and its national, regional, ana p ^
o _ uiQ i ike the Forest Service, the FWS seeks to integrate its EIS process into its
re,»ir!^^^
Plan that sets program gods for all w whichassessed refuge impacts of various funding levels. A new
1976 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1976), budget issues and examine the impacts of four
program EIS will be m continuation of current programs; (2) maximum economic
operational alternatives for the management, allowing natural succession and only carrying
exploitation for commodities and r««erooifc i > management for nonconsumptive uses as under option 1 and
out the activities mandated by kP^aaoW * * m huntinfe fahing, and trapping. To prepare the EIS, the
prohibition of consumptive uses under 19g6 (Furness, personal communication).
FWS held six "scoping" meetings around the coumry u
, , fk*. Regional directors approve plans relating national objectives
flryjnm.1 and unit iPTl V\m • Individual refuge managers prepare management plans, a
endangered species or species of special
to
and
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Baldwin
annual work plans, with a horizon of S years to 100 years (for forestry management). Approximately 100 master
plans have been prepared, many of which were subjects of EISs, but these have been largely discontinued
recently. Whether such a plan is required, and whether an EIS is necessary, depends on the refuge manager's
determination of the significant issues and impacts affecting each area. Chief among the factors affecting an EIS
requirement are questions and controversies concerning the compatibility of proposed economic or recreational
uses with the refuge purposes.
Case example: The FWS planning and EIS process for the Upper
Mississippi River National Wildlife and Fish Refuge
The Upper Mississippi River (UMR) National Wildlife and Fish Refuge illustrates how large the scope and
complexity of the FWS planning and EIS process can be. Congress created the refuge with unusual and difficult
management constraints, owing to the navigational importance of the Mississippi River. It was established in
1924 (P.L. 268) to carry out the Migratory Bird Treaty with Great Britain by protecting critical migratory bird
breeding and other habitat along the Mississippi between Wabasha, Minnesota, and Rock Island, Illinois. The
refuge is the longest in the 48 states, extending 261 miles along the Mississippi and encompassing 194,000 acres
in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois. It forms a long north-south biological corridor that climatologists
and biologists consider potentially valuable for species migration stimulated by global climate change.
Environmental values. The refuge lies along the floodplain of the Mississippi, which was, until the early
1930s, a free-flowing river. Today the locks and dams constructed by the Corps of Engineers create reservoir
pools just above the dams, extensive marshes and backwater lakes farther up, and heavily timbered, meandering
channels and side channels at the upper end. This environment supports great ecological diversity owing to its
sheltered floodplain and north-south expanse (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1987). Species include a variety
of migratory waterfowl in the marshes and open pools and possibly the largest winter concentration of bald
eagles outside Alaska. The refuge supports numerous sport and commercial fish and habitat for such
endangered or threatened species as the peregrine falcon (reintroduced), Indiana bat, the Higgins eye pearly
mussel, and other plants and animals. The FWS estimates that the substantial recreational use of the area for
boating, fishing, and birding, amounts to about 3 million user days per year, which is greater than any other
National Wildlife Refuge.
Management and planning process. Congress authorized the FWS to enter into agreements with the
Corps of Engineers and the neighboring states, and established FWS authority to plan and manage the UMR
refuge. Because the Corps of Engineers constructed locks and dams on the river and owns more than half of
the refuge, the FWS must cooperate with the Corps to control activities within the refuge.
In 1974 the Corps and the FWS agreed to develop a long-range management strategy for the Upper
Mississippi River under the Upper Mississippi River Basin Commission, which included Missouri, Wisconsin,
Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri, the Corps, FWS, EPA, Coast Guard, and Soil Conservation Service. Congress
authorized an interagency task force known as the Great River Environmental Action Team (GREAT) and a
Great River study 2 years later to address the 'total river resource requirements, including navigation, effects
of increased barge traffic, fish and wildlife, recreation, watershed management and water quality" (1976 Water
Resources Development Act). The two studies have been completed on segments of the river—GREAT I and
GREAT H.
Cooperative state-federal planning work has continued. After the River Basin Commission was terminated
in 1981 (see discussion under Corps of Engineers), an Upper Mississippi River Basin Association was formed
in December 1981 to include the five states, with federal agencies participating as advisory members In1986
Congress approved the Association's Comprehensive Master Plan "as a guide for future water doBct" i fh*
region (Water Resources Development Act of 1986). After that the five states and several fedwal mmhAm
began several programs to carry out environmental management, monitoring, and coordination. Additional wnrk
has been done to improve the inventories and analyses of GREAT I and II, including use of a commit • H
Geographic Information System on the location of wildlife species and recreation activities The ton r
districts completed a Land Use Allocation Plan to zone for wildlife management or low-density" eat ^
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Baldwin
xh ttmr Wildlife Woftme EIS. The purpose of the UMR EIS was to analyze, and obtain public views
on, alteSwrni^wto^wTthe refuge master plan. Water quality h*> been themajor concern of the
refuge because of farming impacts, development in the floodplain, and increased river traffic. Significant adverse
impels on the refuge include nonpoint pollution from farms and urban areas. Sediment deposits, primarily
from farms, have affected backwater areas in particular. Eflensive navigation use can keep sediments suspended
and causes shoreline erosion when .raffle occur, a. tow or taghwaer. g '
wildlife is limited because lewis must be maintained tor navigation. The dredging and disposal of material from
the shipping channel has also harmed water quality.
Other significant environmental impacts include changes in wildlife habitat conditions caused by
deteriorating conditions in the floodplain and declines in migratory speciesi due to loss of habitat ekewhere
Recreational boating may be stressing migratory birds at rest in the nver, and declines have been noted for fish
species dependent on long movement along the river.
The EIS analyzed and compared the effects of five basic alternative management programs on the major
issues of con^nv water quality, wildlife management, fishery management, barge and commercial navigation,
Zmoment' ofTAgeto recreation and use. tod the support of most of the
approximately 30 government agencies and organizations commenting on th EIS.
3.3 J Applicability of the EIS Process to Global Climate Change Issues
taSit^SSts M the FWS management of certain refuges, its planning and HS process offers several
opportunities to address global climate issues in the u ure.
_ how climate change scenarios might be applied to regional watershed
The UMR case e«®Pj® EISs of the FWS. The UMR EIS analyzed ways
studies by federalMidstateage ^ It highlighted the importance of the refuge as
to reduce rates of_ decline mi . ^ haven for biological diversity. It discussed the constraints on
an important north-south bio^ctf paw y ^ congress gave to navigation. It noted the adverse
refuge protection resulting from P° iong.term protection of biological resources, and it highlighted
«»- ta -
Many of the fish and wildlife imp*.
m global climate warming causes drier
management EISs, are fak^Jo ^ refuge management decisions. For example, a future
or wetter conditions, they may s^icawuy _ ^ availabie data on the impacts of climate change on
refuge plan/EIS on the UMR reft* ijj* ^ Qn other endangered species and wildlife. The impacts of global
?ya.""I ™ ^ S and many other refugs increaangly valuable as well as vulnerable.
, , r,c nians offer opportunities to examine climate scenarios that might highlight
In the future, EISs on ^Lthoritjes or the need for more far-reaching action*. The EIS process
the weaknesses of existing man^ement au _ ^ ^ ^ pubUc to consider impacts and actions outside the
has already proved useful in lorarj ag responses to climate change may need to build on such
boundaries of their routine wn^^:ip. 8f uSLmh national level EISs have not yet addressed climate issues
institutional and educational opponumnes. they can consider climate impacts in the future,
and implicitly assume the d {^determine whether and how they might help FWS regions evaluate
National refuge EISs should te evguaeo scenarios, and assess the potential sensitivities of wildlife
climate change data, formulate cumiw ci^« . planning processes should be reexamined, and master
resources to global climate change, tarn ^ address climate impacts more effectively.
plan/EIS processes may need to be resurrected in uruw
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3.4 FEDERAL ACTIVITIES IN THE COASTAL ZONE
Sea level rise is a clear, easily understandable phenomenon that may accelerate over the next hundred
years due to the warming effect of greenhouse gases. Seas around the world have risen about 12 cm over the
past century. Recently the National Academy of Sciences posited three plausible scenarios for eustatic sea level
rise to the year 2100, each involving increasing rates of rise as time goes by: 50, 100, and 150 cm (National
Research Council, 1987). Within the next 25 years the highest sea level recommended for consideration would
be 10 cm, but the rise will accelerate and may become increasingly significant with time. Actual sea level rise
and its effects will differ widely from place to place, but resources of special concern include coastal structures
with a life of more than 50 years and coastal wetlands.
The discussion below considers some recent examples of federal actions and long-range planning and EIS
processes that relate to sea level concerns. Examples focus largely on coastal wetlands, which are jurisdictional
concerns of several federal agencies.
3.4.1 Projects Affected by Sea Level Rise
Dramatic effects of coastal erosion over the past century are visible at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
where the National Park Service recently wrestled with ways to save the famed Hatteras lighthouse from
inundation, in part because of sea level rise of about one foot over the past 100 years. After preparing an EIS
on alternative responses, the NPS concluded that a solution beyond 50 years required a closer look by the
National Academy of Sciences. An NAS panel recommended moving the lighthouse inland rather than incur
ever-higher costs for sea wall protection, in part because of rising sea levels. It had concluded that the shoreline
in front of the lighthouse would retreat 157-407 feet by the year 2018, and 525-3,280 feet by the year 2088
(National Research Council, 1988).
Concern about rising seas prompted the Congress to authorize a Corps of Engineers' study on the
implications for coastal flooding and erosion (1986 Water Resources Development Act, P.L. 99-662). Because
study funds have not been appropriated, no study is under way. But Corps planners have analyzed sea level
issues for specific projects, recognizing that local sea level problems depend on local coastal subsidence
sediment type, and tectonic forces. An example is the Hurricane Protection Project in the Mississippi delta!
where subsidence and lack of accretion has made sea level "rise" 10 times more than the world wide average of
one-half foot in the past century (Leatherman, 1987).
Case study. Corps construction project
The New Orleans to Venice, Louisiana, Hurricane Protection Project
Project purpose and history. This project, authorized by Congress in 1962, is intended to protect the
developed area of Louisiana's delta plain southeast of New Orleans from hurricane tiHqi floods bv
subsidence, erosion, lack of accretion, and rising seas. The affected area lies along the Mississippi River in lower
Plaquemines Parish. Annual land losses from several causes have amounted to about 200000arr*« n, " J,
of the region per year (US. Army Corps of Engineers, 1987). ' 'or over
The Corps proposed to increase the height of existing levees on the east and west banks of the river and
modify current drainage fatalities. The levees were intended to protect areas to the west from hurricane flrvvk
coming from the east. Levee construction on some reaches of the river began in 1968, before passageofNEPA
The Corps completed a Final EIS on the proposed project in 1975, but environmentallv nr*ferau„
zzstzsz*-* EB ta NLSSer m
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caused by climate change, because the EIS considers how to control a sea-level rise/subsidence/erosion issue
of major concern to local citizens. As at Cape Hatteras and elsewhere, coastal land losses in Louisiana have
become clear and threatening.
The EIS examined alternative responses: the costs of flood protection, the significant impacts of
construction remedies, the effects on future development from doing nothing, and the somewhat greater
development opportunities possible if flood barrier construction proceeds. In these respects the EIS focused its
attention on significant public issues arising from sea-level rise.
3.4.2 Coastal Zone Management Act Programs
Significant losses of coastal wetlands will occur if sea levels rise substantially over the next hundred years.
Even without subsidence the National Academy sea level report notes the danger that "marsh grasses cannot
accrete vertically fast enough to keep pace with sea level rise," putting extensive estuarme marshes in the United
sSfes at risk. Where uplands have been developed or bulkheaded, marshes will not be able to migrate shore-
ward as seas rise.
FcrWa, nrocrrains under the Coastal Zone Management Act currently support the 30 approved state and
~ with annual wants ranging from $0.5 to $2 milhoa These programs can be
territorial coastal propamsrjgao^gffonwiW geas. N0AA>S office of Coastal Resource
increasingly important m ad "j* . ^ approved programs, and it helped stimulate Maine's decision
Management has J ball state coastal^ermit reviews. The federal
st£of sea level rise, inctodtag a curnnt study for Ne» Jersey, New York, and
Rhode Island.
* nt coastal resources for scientific, economic, and environmental reasons is an
Long-term pwsemtionofro^l rraoura coastal Zone Management Act. §315 provides for 50/50
option for state and local goveri™ . . . a ^ona! system of estuarine research reserves that represent
federal matching grants to states f wptng provide opportunities for long-term research,
the various regions and estuanne ^ Qf
SSSST1SL^lSSfpropo"* . New Hampshire's Great Bay anmtae Re*arch
al, state, and local agency cooperation m ———- r » ,.
3.4.3 Long-Range Regulatory Planning Capabilities of Federal Agencies
Soecial Area Management Plans. Amendments to the Coastal Zone Management Act in 1981 encouraged
the devetopmeSofc^M^tivecomprehensive planning by all levels of gomnment for resoura protection and
economic development under a Special Area Management Plan (SAMP). The Caps of Engineers has
articulated a related concept of a SAMP that it encourages through its regulatory permit program
(Regulatory Guidance Letter on Special Area Management Plans, October 1986).
The Coastal Zone Management Act amendment ^
a EB & been emipleled under the Coastal Zone Managmm ^
Despite delays, costs, and complete, of the Grays H***jjya ha,.ntttt.pdSp.sh!
ir„ uan^mnnt Pia
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Baldwin
Advanced Identification Program. EPA's Guidelines for §404 of the Clean Water Act allows EPA and
the Corps of Engineers jointly to identify aquatic sites that are suitable or unsuitable for dredging and filling.
This provision, §230.80, was added in 1980 to give the two agencies a new, flexible, nonregulatory mechanism
to identify important or unimportant wetlands before developers apply for Corps' permits. It was originally
intended to support comprehensive regional planning efforts by federal, state, and local agencies, such as the
Grays Harbor estuarine planning program. In practice it has been used to gather data on, and inform the public
about, critical wetlands in the Rainwater Basin, Nebraska, on Chincoteque Island, Virginia, within the
Hackensack Meadowlands, NJ., in Southern Maine, in the Faulkner Lake region of Arkansas, and elsewhere.
EPA believes that advanced identification can help all levels of government establish clearer wetland protection
priorities, improve public and properly owner understanding of wetland values, improve the technical information
base of government agencies, and, ultimately, enhance wetland protection.
Case example: Areawide planning within the context of the Coastal Zone
Management Act: the Hackensack Meadowlands
Local/Regional planning structure. No two areawide planning processes are alike, which makes the
choice of one example difficult, but one of the most well known areawide development planning programs is
New Jersey's Hackensack Meadowlands Development Commission. The HMDC was created by the State in
1968 to plan and carry out economic development, environmental protection, and waste disposal programs in 14
townships covering 20,000 acres of coastal wetlands and floodplains just across the Hudson River from
Manhattan. Since then the HMDC has carried out environmental inventories and complex areawide planning,
working to reduce conflicts between wetland protection and development. Substantial progress has been made
in reducing water pollution and in improving the quality of many wetlands. Wetlands continue to be lost,
however; the Giants' sports arena, for example, required substantial wetland filling.
Relation to federal programs. The HMDC Master Zoning Plan was approved in 1980 by the UJS.
Department of Commerce as a part of the State Coastal Zone Management Program, but future permit
applications to the Corps of Engineers for wetland development still had to be evaluated separately under the
federal §404 program. When a development corporation sought Corps permits for a proposed a large industrial
park development under the Master Plan, the EPA, FWS, and NMFS objected. After the Corps granted the
permits and citizen ami environmental groups sued the Corps and the developer, the federal court upheld the
Corps and decided that an EIS was not required to address the proposal along with future development permit
proposals.
Efforts to integrate the EIS process with revision of the Master Plan Seeing a need for better
understanding of the remaining 7,000 acres of wetlands in the District, EPA and the Corps, in cooperation with
the HMDC, began an advanced identification program to identify wetlands suitable and unsuitable for beta®
filled. The action to be addressed by the areawide EIS was whether or not the Corps should accept the Master
Plan in deciding individual permit applications on a regional basis. Essentially the EIS was to provide a
comprehensive means for federal agencies to assess data gathered by the federal advanced identification nroo>«t
and planning alternatives, including the proposed Master Plan of the HMDC. process
Administratis problems with the EIS md riming PWWff. The advanced identification and EIS nrnr#.«
have not been carried out as planned, due to conflicts between the federal agencies and difficultly
federal work schedules with the tighter planning schedule of the HMDC caused early difficulty
questions arose over the appropriate geographic scope in the EIS for determining reasonable
alternatives to the wetland proposals. The HMDC has favored restricting the inquiry to i^ Sn J!
jurisdiction, whereas the federal agencies favor a look at site alternatives in a broader area.
The results illustrate the institutional barriers of concerns about agency "turf" and Hifr.-.
missions, along with other bureaucratic difficulties, that can inhibit practical use of the
government agencies meet their planning and regulatory requirements. process in helping
. FfKfjtitY ef applvfog the EIS ptpwwi to local development f»r rrrT.
administrative problems, there are no inherent procedural barriers to the appl^
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areawide planning that cannot be overcome by agency decision makers; existing regulations need not be changed,
and the EIS process can help areawide planning and decision making in coastal areas. In the Hackensack
Meadowlands federal agencies have had a strong interest in the local plan for wetland protection. A process was
begun under which important wetlands could be identified and incorporated into a revised areawide Master Plan.
A federal EIS was envisaged to assess the revised plan and to consider approving it for purposes of issuing
federal wetland fill permits under §404.
Although the HMDC is an unusual local planning agency because of its broad zoning and taxing powers,
other areas have similar wetland planning problems and interests that EISs can also address The administrative
problems arising in Hackensack can be overcome in other places where local planning and federal regulatory
actions interact With strong policy guidance from headquarters, agreements are possible between federal
agencies to tie federal advanced identification and other information-gathering efforts into existing local planning
processes in ways that can avoid or reduce costly procedural conflicts.
3.4.4 Applicability of Federal Coastal Zone EIS Processes to Global Climate Issues.
Federal EISs in the coastal zone cover a wide range of actions, including federal land plans, funding for
highway, sewer, and other infrastructure, land and water acquisition, public works construction, and regulatory
Sis The National Academy report on responses to sea level rise over the next 100 years, and other
¦ «» »° 7 bedev.topd by Federa!
Emergency Management Agency, can provide a useful framework for EIS analyses of coastal plans and projects.
For coastal oroiects having a long life, or likely to influence development pattenis over tte long term, the
three e^csea levil chang^up tothe year 2100 can be considered as EIS scenarios. The following factors
te^btheN^reSo^e appropriate for such EISs routinely to consider within each scenario: the design
T72XSF3SSL °r Seed facilities (most important if they would last more than 50 years);
. ° propOMa' . level rise- the degree of risk and magnitude of damage from sea level rise;
maintenance reqmrements fir ( ctive'measures on the natural and human environment; and the costs
site location alternatives; effects of^protect™m^ ^ feasibly and usefully be applied to the
sectfon of the report, b* they .ill require addition*, it modest, fund. for EIS
analysis.
» ur u mnrcrned with level rise. Site-specific EISs have already proved useful in
Ptffrk works S wewnt sea level rise through structures, beach enrichment, or other
assessing costs and impacts of {£ . 0ffer important opportunities to focus public and agency
alternativenonstructural measures. '»^.«gS35L"ZS.directtapact.ofprojectsintendedtokw50
attention on long-term effects ^ may. ^uce coastal development lasting at least as long,
years or more and indirect unpads of projects uiai y
t natural —m-ntecrinn programs. Rising seas put critical coastal
Coastal Mp mmjrwnt fflffl' nfflWfll 1for acquisition and protection
ecosystems at risk. This situationslwuld aff program discussed above, aid other programs of
of these ecosystems, including the Service. These programs can use the EIS process to examine
the National Park Service and Fish and Wflduf biolf?#*1 diversity where rising sea levels may make future
and explain the needs and opportunities *» P* ^ ]evej rjse and these resource impacts will force
development costly. Requirements that ElM t0 speak, when otherwise they might not.
decision makers and the pubhc to look beyond tneir now*
. r within the coastal tone must be consistent with approved State
Federal funding or permits foramended to address future problems of sea level rise. EISs on
Coastal Zone Management Plans. p^"^nlant, ^ other actions will need to give increasing consideration
federally aided highways, sewage treatment pianw, » the NAS report,
to sea level rise impacts and to the scenarios and factors cuscussea in
«.«level rise has not significantly affected wetland regulatory actions along
Wetland regtilfflftrv p™?"™8- Sea m wey as fninnd areas, federal programs to identify and/or
the coast, but this situation may change, inotwhb planning processes. As in the case of the
regulate important wetlands can and should be imegrweu
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Trinity River comprehensive EIS, areawide EISs in the coastal zone can help local and federal agencies evaluate
long-term options for wetland protection on a comprehensive rather than a piecemeal basis.
Areawide regulatory EISs can and should evaluate how the three sea level rise scenarios might affect
important wetlands over the next hundred years. Maps showing areas that may be threatened by coastal erosion
over the next few decades will greatly facilitate this analysis. Among the long-term issues to address under each
scenario are the following; opportunities and needs for upland protection to allow natural migration of wetlands
as seas rise; increased coastal flooding effects and needs for wetlands to contain floods; long-term impacts of
wetland losses on migratory birds; and mitigation actions appropriate to protect wetlands over time.
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REFERENCES
Baldwin
Audubon Wildlife Report, 1987, p. 249.
Davis, G. 1987. Ecosystem representation as a criterion for world wilderness designation. Paper prepared for
the Wild Wings Foundation.
Environmental Impact Statement on the Operation of the National Wildlife Refuge System, U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service, 1976.
Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement n, New Orleans to Venice, Louisiana Barrier Features
Hurricane Protection Project, VS. Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans District, November 1987, p. 17.
Furness. Personal communication from Sean Furness, Refuge Manager, Branch of Special Projects, Fish and
Wildlife Service, Washington, DC, May 1988.
Hanrhev IR KE Schilling and E.Z. Stakhiv, VS. Army Institute for Water Resources, "Water Resources
Planningunder ChmateuSrtainty,- Prrmrinf amae' lh«H? Nonh Amc'igin
CoSnce on Preparing for climate change, October 1987, Government Institute, toe, Washington, DC, p. 394.
Kaldjian. Peisonal communication torn Paul Kalian, EPA Office of Federal Activities, Februaiy 1988.
Ketcham. Personal communication from David Ketcham, UJS. Forest Service, Director Environmental
Coordination Staff, May 1988.
I «„~!«««»« ctpnhpn p "Effects of Sea Level Rise on Beaches and Coastal Wetlands, Preparing for Climate
Americm. Condon Propping f* Ctate Change, W^Ungton,
DC, October 27-29,1987. Government Institutes, Inc., Washington, DC, p. 144.
j- . ~ 5_ t »vel: Erarineering Implications, Committee on Engineering Implications of
^ Techric- S^em,
National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1987.
Saving Cape Hatteras Lighthouse from the Sea OP**®8 Implications, National Researdi Council,
1988, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, lw».
Smythe. Interview .ithDr.RobertSmy^Po^acge^C^tgg.ChevyChMe,MMyhnd.mdfonner
staff member for water resources at the Council on Environmental QuaMy.
Studt. Person* communication from John Studt, Corps of Engineers, Civil Works Regulator Programs,
Washington, DC, April 1988.
w-** <"** *^ m
„„ „ . A XT., Perce National Forest Plan and Final Environmental Impact Statement,
VS. Department of Agriculture, Nez raroerow"™'
U.S. Forest Service, Washington, DC, October 1957.
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APPENDIX
Federal Programs Related To Long-term Climate Change
Department of Agriculture
Agriculture Stabilisation and C^pservatfoit Service
Water Bank Program. Direct payments for 10 year contracts ^'hJ^owners for migratory waterfowl
habitat protection. Wetland protection coordinated with Fish and Wildlife Service and states. 16 USC
1301-1311.
Agricultural Conservation Program. Cost-share assistance for habitat conservation, erosion and sediment
control, point and non-point source pollution, energy conservation m accordance with specified standards
through contract and easements with landowners. 16 USC 1501-1501.
FmpTpp.ncv Conservation Program. Direct cost-sharing payments to farmers for new emergency
conserwitionmeasuresto controlwbd erosion or to rehabilitate farmland damped by drought, floods,
wind erosion, or other natural disasters. (Available in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands.) 16 USC 2201-2205.
reservation Proaram. Direct payments to eligible owners of highly erodible land under 10 year
contracts for implementation of programs to plant trees, grasses, other vegetation. P.L. 99-198.
farmers Homy Administration
Water Loans. Loans to eligible farming enterprises for soil conservation, water development,
forestation, drainage, pollution control, energy conservation. (Applicable to Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands,
Guam, American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands.) Repayment of up to 40 years. 7 USC 1922-28.
Watershed Portion and Flnnd Prevention Loans. Loan funds for municipal corporations, soil
conservation districts, other not-for-profit groups, for flood prevention, irrigation, drainage, sediment
control, water based recreation, fish and wildlife development. P.L.93-566, P.L. 78-534.
Forest frrvft*
Cooperative forestry Assistance. Grants to state forestry programs for private, state, local, forestry
activities. P.L. 95-313.
Forestry incentives Program. Cost-sharing payments for increased tree production to owners of non-
industrial private forest lands of 1,000 acres or less with approved forest management p'qm in FIP
designated counties. Approximately 5,000 recipients covering nearly all states. P.L. 95-313.
Renewable Resources Planning Act. Assessment of all renewable resources for forest and range lands
every 10 years, and a long range plan/EIS every 5 years. 16 USC 1600-1614.
t and and Water Conservation Fund. At least 40% of this fund is allocated to federal land
agencies for purchase of outdoor recreation areas. 16 USC 4601-4 to 4601-11.
Natipnal Forest Planning. Requires comprehensive plans, to be reviewed every 10 to 15 years, for each
national forest to meet multiple uses. National Forest Management Act of 1976.
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Rural Electrification Administratjnfl
Rwai Efectrifipatjon ]U>an?- Long-term loans to rural electric cooperative* n..hi;^ . .
municipalities, and other qualified applicants for supply of electricity to rural areas 7 USCm-916 930-.'
Soil Consarv^tjnn frfvfrf
great Conservation- Direct cost-sharing payments to landowners in one of th» «io A •
counties in Great Plains for soil and water conservation necessary toprSect
0°*™*" for 3 to 10 SSSt&gJ £
Cm""C" """ tod0W°'" * ^ — Ma"agemenc
Resource Cpns^rv^tjon and Development- Grants to states, localities, and non-profit o«ran,W5o
authorized to plan and implement resource conservation and development prozrams ^ns
planning and installing projects for flood prevention, sediment and erosion control, water-based noSfe
agricultural pollution control. Public Laws 74-46, 75-210, 89-796, 87-703,91-343, 92-419, 97-98
Rwal Abandoned Ming Program- Direct cost-sharing grants to private owners of abandoned coal
Srr^5?ervation' redaiuation md development of soil, water, woodland, wildlife, recreation
30 USC icaources.
Small Watershed (PL-gff) Program- Technical and cost sharing to states and localities for planning
designing, installing watershed improvements, flood prevention, irrigation, drainage, sediment
water-based recreation. PX. 83-566 as amended; 43 USC 422a-422h. control,
Soil and yyaftr Conservation. Technical assistance to individuals and groups to plan and applv soil and
water conservation measures. Nationwide application with annual services to approximated 1 m;nVl
landowners and 30,000 government units. Pi. 74-46. n
Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act (RCA) Program. This act requires the Department of
Agriculture to undertake (in 1980,1985, and every ten years thereafter) an appraisal of, and prcwainfar
soil, water, and related resources affecting the 1.5 billion acres of VS. private land. The RCAoroflram
must include regular monitoring the current state of the resource base, projections of future demands (W
food and fiber, and review of conservation policy choices in detail. The purpose is to encourage
landowners and farm operators to conserve soil, wildlife, and energy resources while meeting demands far
basic foodstuffs. 1977 Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act (PX. 95-192).
WffiHKl Convgrcton rfiwampfrvsta.")- The Food Security Actof 1985 (Title XII C) makes farm operators
ineligible for price-support payments, mid insured or guaranteed loans for any year in which an annual
crop was produced on converted wetlands, which are defined in the Act. (PX. 99-198.)
department of Commerce
Economic development. EDA administers grant programs for public works, business development,
technical assistance, public works impact projects, and state and local economic development planning
Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965 (42 USC 3131 et seq.).
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Coastal Zone Resources
Coastal Zone Management Act. The Act provides grants for state (including Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands,
Guam, American Samoa, Northern Marianas, and Trust Territories') coastal zone management programs,
including planning for impacts of offshore energy development, and information on coastal resources and
hazards. Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended, 16 USC 1451 et seq.
Estuarine Sanctuary Program. Matching grants are provided to states for acquiring, developing and
operating national estuarine sanctuaries. 16 USC 1461.
Marine Sanctuary Program. Provides for designation of marine areas a sanctuaries to conserve multiple
resource values. 16 USC 1431-1434.
National Marine Fisheries Service
Anadromous and Great Lakes Fisheries Conservation. Federal funding is available for research, and
improvements of spawning and other fishery structures to conserve and enhance anadromous fish
resources. The program is administered in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Anadromous Fish Act of 1965,16 USC 757a.f.
Department of Defense
Armv Corns of Engineers
Regulatory Program. The Corps of Engineers must issue permits for activities affecting discharge in or
obstruction to UJS. waters or for activities affecting navigable waters of the U.S. 33 USC 1344 (§404 Clean
Water Act of 1972, as amended), 33 USC 401, 403, 404, 406, 407 (Rivers and Harbors Act of 1899).
Beach Erosion Control Projects. To control beach and shore erosion of public shores the Corps of
Engineers designs and constructs projects not specifically authorized by Congress if nonfederal sponsoring
agencies assume responsibilities for project costs, maintenance, public access, and water pollution control
33 USC 426g.
Flood Fighting and Rescue Operations. Emergency Protection of Coastal Protective Works, anri PT»rr»nn,
Rehabilitation (Public Law 84-99) Program. Assistance is provided for emergency repair or rehabilitation
of flood control works damaged by floods, wave action, and assistance in flood fighting and rescue
operations. Flood Control Act of 1941, as amended, 33 USC 701n.
Small Flood Control Projects and Small Navigation Projects. The Corps of Engineers designs and
constructs projects for which nonfederal sponsoring agencies assume responsibilities for project costs
maintenance, and public assess. 33 USC 701s, and 33 USC 577.
Planning Assistance to States. The Corps provides funds for comprehensive state plans for development,
use, and conservation of water and related land-use resources in drainage basins Water Revtnrroc
Development Act of 1974 (§22), 42 USC 1962d-16.
Cpngg^ipnaHy Aytlwaefl Water Rwww Development, specific project design and construction in
accordance with specific congressional legislation. Congress authorized and funded forty-one new Cores
and BuRec projects under new cost sharing arrangements with non-federal entities. P.L. 99-88
Department of Energy
National Energy Pq1w Plan• The President is required to prepare and submit to Congress, biennially
a National Energy Policy Plan that (a) considers energy objectives for periods of 5 to 10 years, with
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particular attention to employment, price, security, environment, growth, nuclear proliferation issues; (b)
identifies strategies to achieve objectives, including the level of conservation and investment that is
necessary (c) evaluates current and foreseeable trends in energy use and management and the social,
enviroSnti and economic effects of such trends. (§801, Title vm, Department of Energy Organization
Act, P.L. 95-91, 42 USC 7321).
Nuripar waste nisoosal. The Department of Energy is responsible for identifying and planning suitable
sites for long-ranee disposal of spent nuclear fuel and la-level nuclear wastes in geological repositories.
Twelve sites^ven^proposed for consideration in 1986 for public consideration. Nuclear Waste Policy Act,
42 USC 10101 et seq.
Conservation and Renewable Energy
Act, v£ m, §361-366,42 USC
and National Energy Conservation Policy Act, P.L. 93-oi*
„ ^ . <, ¦ rirants to states and territories to encourage individuals and small
gffiSRSf en,^, ££. «o attend,, ^ sour*,. 42 USC 7101.
" g~
95-911, and P.L.'s 97-377,98-50,98-146.
. ^ „ Prr>if>rt wants to increase industrial energy use efficiency and to promote
SSSSBbfor scarce fuels. P.L.»« and Interior Department and Related Agencies
appropriation acts.
Fossil Energy
loans to medium sized operators to finance development of new
Cffll IflWI fiwarmtfW- f ejdgting mines, and construction of coal preparation plants that will
underground coal mines, «^on 94-163; Energy Conservation and
Rie. Use Act of 1978, PX. 9«20.
Rmil "
domestic production of oil ano gw
n. fimnnrt for competitive solicitations proposing dean coal technological
Intergovernmental Relations
Torhnical to Indian tribes to encourage development and good
™ 5MU-
Rnnneviiie Power Admintotratipfl
of the Bonneville Power Administration, including long-range
Planning, operation, and man^emen . . marketing, use and conservation in the Northwest,
planning for electric power generaUonj UaMm^ 'H
and including river basin studies. 16 USC 832-wv.
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Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air
EPA programs for: approval and enforcement of State Implementation Plans, establishment of national
emission standards for hazardous air pollutants, new source performance standards, regulations concerning
proper emission stack heights, stratospheric ozone protection research and cooperation, motor vehicle fuel
standards, establishment of ambient standards, emission standards for mobile sources, fuel economy
standards for automobile manufacturers' fleets. Clean Air Act, 42 USC 7401-7642, and Energy Policy and
Conservation Act, 15 USC 20003(d).
Office of Water
EPA programs for: establishing water quality standards, NPDES permits, §404 dredge and fill permits,
waste water treatment construction grants, estuarine management, non-point pollution, designation of sole
source aquifers, ground water protection, underground injection control. Clean Water Act, as amended,
and Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, as amended.
Office of Research and Development
Research programs on: air pollution control, pesticides, solid waste disposal; water pollution, safe drinking
water, toxic substances.
Federal Emergency Management Administration
National Flood Insurance Program. Provides federally-subsidized flood insurance against loss of real or
personal property from floods, according to community land use regulations meeting federal standards.
National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 and Food Disaster Protection Act of 1973, 42 USC 4001-4128.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Hydroelectric Power Licensing. licenses must be approved by the FERC for private hydroelectric projects
on UJS. navigable waters. Existing projects must be approved for relicensing. Federal Power Act of 1922,
as amended.
Natural Gas Pipeline Certification. The FERC must approve certification of interstate natural gas
transportation systems. 15 USC 717, 3301-3432.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
Solar Energy and Energy Conservation Bank. Grant incentives for individuals, non-profit groups, for
purchase and installation of energy conservation and solar energy measures. Energy Security Act, 12 USC
3601.
Department of the Interior
QfRre of S»rfoc? Mining
Regulation pf Suffer goal Mining and Rectematipn. Establishment of standards for federal coal surface
mining (including hydrological impacts and reclamation and revegetation requirements) and for state coal
surface mining under the federal program. 30 USC 1232 et seq.
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Fish and Wildlife Service
Endangered Suedes. Programs for listing threatened and endangered species, analyzing impacts of federal
and private actions affecting such spedes, preparing and carrying out spedes recovery plans, preparing
habitat conservation plans foe inddental takings and issuing permits for takings. 16 USC 1531-1543.
National Wetlands Inventory Project. Program classifies, identifies, and maps wetlands for data base to
aid management and regulation. 16 USC 661-666c.
Migratory Bird Program. Program for the inventory of significant waterfowl habitats and purchase in fee
or easement. 16 USC 718.
Emergency Wetland Resources Act Program. Establishment of priorities for wetland acquisition by states
and federal government. Emergency Wetland Resources Act of 1986.
Pittman-Robinson and Dingell-Johnson Acts. Program allows grants in aid to states for habitat and
spedes restoration. 16 USC 669-91, 777-777k.
Natipnal Park Service
Coastal Barrier WMtmreM Act Programs. This program bars use of federal financial assistance on coastal
barrier islands delineated on official Coastal Barrier Resources maps. The program now encompasses 187
units of barrier islands. Coastal Barrier Resources Act of 1982, P.L. 97-348.
National Park M^ter Plan Program. Program for estabUshii« Master Plans for each National Park to
maintain and enhance National Park System. 16 USC 1-3, 461.
Bureau of Land Management
bt M t anH tTsp planning Program. Land use planning programs for BLM units, and Habitat Management
Plans for wildlife habitats on public lands. 43 USC 1701 et seq.
Mineral? MtoimgftWfnt frrvto
Federal Coal Tearing Program. Management of federal coal leasing under criteria established by the
Mineral Leasing Act of 1920 as amended. BLM actions include establishment of leasing schedules,
development of criteria for determining commercial quantities required for production, criteria for
relinquishing leases, diligence requirements, royalty requirements. 30 USC 201 et seq.
r>ii<«r rwinontai Shrif Leftsfof Program. Leasing of oil and gas and other mineral in US waters over
SKiffishetf. A SS ^TleSdngpto is required. Outer Continental Shelf Leasing Act, as amended.
Bureau of Reclamation
Bpriam^inn Act Program. Construction and operation of irrigation, flood control and power projects in
17 western states. 43 USC 411 et seq.
Bureau of Outdoor Recreation
rwAw R*
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Geological Survey
Survey Program. Collection and analysis of data on land use. Various authorities.
Department of State/Agency for International Development
Foreign Assistance Program. AID programs have an increasing focus on natural resource conservation,
including coastal zone management assistance (Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Thailand), energy conservation, water
resource use and development. Foreign Aid Assistance Acts.
Tennessee Valley Authority
Programs for electric power generation, flood control, recreation, fertilizer development, economic
development, natural resources development, and valley agricultural development. Tennessee Valley
Authority Act of 1933, as amended. 16 USC 831 et seq.
Department of Transportation
Federal Aviation Administration
Airoort Improvement Program. Grants to states, counties, municipalities, and other public agencies for
planning, constructing, improving or repairing a public-use airport. Federal cost sharing varies for various
parts of an airport project, including noise controls. Airport and Airway Improvement Act of 1982, as
amended, P.L. 97-248, and P.L. 96-193.
Federal Highway Administration
Highway Planning and Construction Program. Grants in aid to states for construction and rehabilitation
of interstate and other highways. Title 23 USC, "Highways" as amended P.L. 97-424 and 98-229.
y.S. Coast Cuard
Bridge Permit Program. Requires permits for all bridge projects over navigable waters. 33 USC 3525.
Federal Railroad Administration
Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement. Financial assistance for acquiring or rehabilitating and
improving railroad facilities, or for developing new railroad facilities. 45 USC 831.
Urban Mass Transportation Administration
Programs for capital improvement grants, research and training, and managerial training grants for urban
mass transportatioa Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964, as amended, 49 USC 1601 et seq
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Nwtear Plant Iteming- Licensing of nuclear power plants and monitoring of safetv anrf nrtur
requirements. Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended, 42 USC 2021. V
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER RESOURCES
IN THE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN REGION OF CALIFORNIA:
POLICY ADJUSTMENT OPTIONS
by
William E. Riebsame
and
Jeffrey W. Jacobs
Natural Hazards Research and
Applications Information Center
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309
Cooperative Agreement No. CR-814630
-------
CONTENTS
Page
FINDINGS 4-1
WATER SUPPLY 4-1
DELTA ISLAND MAINTENANCE 4-2
POLICY IMPLICATIONS 4-2
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 4-3
THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE 4-3
ADJUSTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 4-3
THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLICY IN CALIFORNIA 4-4
CHAPTER 2: THREE WATER RESOURCE POLICY PROBLEMS IN CALIFORNIA 4-7
WATER SUPPLY MANAGEMENT 4-7
The Policy Environment of Water Supply 4-8
The Key Issue is Long-term Water Supply Adequacy 4-8
Growing Climate Sensitivity Raises User Concerns 4-10
Readjusting Allocation Policies 4-11
Summary; Potential Future Adjustments in Water Supply 4-12
DELTA ISLANDS LAND USE AND MAINTENANCE ISSUES 4-13
The Delta Problem 4-17
Institutions and Policies Affecting Delta Maintenance 4-17
The US. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Regulatory Policies 4-17
The Reclamation Board 4-20
Local Reclamation Districts 4-21
Emergency Service Agendes 4-21
Summary: Delta Protection Has Large Institution Backing, But Increasing Climate
Threat May Eventually Force Alternatives 4-22
DELTA WATER QUALITY ISSUES 4-23
Institutions and Policies Arrayed for Water Quality Maintenance 4.23
State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) 4.23
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) ... 4-26
Suisun Resource Conservation District (SRCD) 4.25
Water Delivery Agendes 4.27
Summary; Water Quality Will Be A Priority In Future Climate Adjustments 4-27
CHAPTER 3: CONCLUSIONS: WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT POLICY IMPLICATIONS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CALIFORNIA STUDY AREA
PROSPECTS FOR POLICY ADJUSTMENT IN WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD
CONTROL
PROSPECTS FOR ADJUSTING DELTA ISLAND LAND USE
PROSPECTS FOR WATER QUALITY MAINTENANCE
THE NEED FOR INTEGRATED POLICY SOLUTIONS !!!!!!!
REFERENCES
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Riebsame
FINDINGS1
The Sacramento-San Joaquin region of northern California is particularly vulnerable to rhangpg
precipitation and temperature that might result from the greenhouse effect (or natural climate change) because
of the critical role that water development has played in the region's economic development. Three key water
management issues are especially sensitive to climate change: (1) water supply and flood control; (2) land use
and levee maintenance in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta; and (3) water quality in the Delta. This study
could find no instance in which public policies and plans addressing these issues explicitly take account of the
potential for future climate change.
WATER SUPPLY
Water supplies in the California State Water Project (SWP), which provides users ranging from small
irrigation districts to metropolitan Los Angeles, are sensitive even to small changes in runoff owing to the close
balance between current demand and supply. In addition, demand is projected to double over the next two
decades. The federal Central Valley Project (CVP), the nation's largest irrigation system, also in the same basin,
is less sensitive because of excess capacity.
SWP managers have responded to recent climate fluctuations and the project's heightened Him at a
sensitivity by adopting more flexible operations, including accepting greater riskof failing to meet original firm
yield targets in some years. This adjustment strategy began to emerge in the mid-1970s as the development of
planned major facilities (e.g., additional onstream storage^ and a Delta transfer canal) was delayed by
environmental concerns and the changing economics of public investment (Le., altered federal/state cost-sharing
formulae). Project managers responded to recent climate extremes by first implementing rigid, and then more
flexible, allocation rules that allow the reliability of supply and supply projections to vary according to climate
conditions. Whether such flexible operational adjustments can accommodate impacts from cumulative climate
change is difficult to assess. However, constraints on the development of new facilities like reservoirs means that
climate change will create greater pressure to find alternative ways of maintaining the reliability that insulated
users from past climate fluctuations.
In the latest update of the State Water Plan, project managers predict they will not meet near-future
demands without additional structural and operational changes, even if climate is stable. Among the adjustments
suggested to bridge this gap are an offstream storage reservoir south erf the delta (a configuration likely to
receive less adverse environmental reaction than previously proposed big reservoirs), increased sharing of CVP
water, and improvements in Delta conveyance facilities. Yet, even these developments will only maintain a rough
balance between demand and supply, and climate change, which was not explicitly addressed in the Plan, could
further lessen the likelihood of meeting projected demand.
Under the current conditions of closely balanced supply and demand, water supply reliability and flood
safety are countervailing goals in the Basin: attempts to increase one usually reduce tfie other. This represents
a potentially serious policy conflict between agencies and resource management goals. Recent climate impacts
suggest that relatively small future changes in runoff could require changes in flood protection policies that
reduce freshwater vield-and vice versa. Simulation studies indicate that a slightly earlier runolf due to warmer
temperatures could markedly reduce the likelihood ofmeeting reservoir storagegoalsin most years. Feasible
changes in flood control rules are not sufficient to ameliorate this impact. This will heighten the tension between
'Although the information in this report has been funded partly by the US. Environmental Protection
Agency under Cooperative Agreement No. CR-814630, it does not necessarily reflect the Agency's views, and
no official endorsement should be inferred from it.
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flood management, which is chiefly a federal responsibility, and water supply, which is managed at all
governmental levels, and may pressure planners into traditional adjustments like new reservoir constructioa
The theoretical range of options for adjusting supply and flood control extends from the traditional
approach of building more and larger facilities, to a set of institutional and behavioral adjustments that reduce
the demand for water and/or encourage reallocation between competing uses. Calls for additional storage in
the basin illustrate the former option, while the recent agreement for coordinated operation of the SWP and
CVP provides an innovative example of the latter. Project coordination and sharing is innovative because water
systems are traditionally operated in isolation; similar adjustments are beginning to appear in other climate-
sensitive regions of the country (e.g., the Potomac Basin). How much "absorptive capacity" such operational
adjustments provide in relation to cumulative climate change remains to be assessed.
DELTA ISLAND MAINTENANCE
Th, threat» - —
and economic momentum to , vel rise. Three preconditions for large public investment
degradaion and^^ place;P A philosophical and popular political
in maintaining the Delta in the fac Levees Maintenance Subvention Program), and
ration*. a policy mechansm for pubhc undent strategiM), ^ elfort! t0
the tools for fighting JJee public investment and structural solutions, rather than to accept
2KJH5 • ii- •—
supply concerns in the poucy reliability criteria are not as explicit in current water development
backed by federal <,Uty maintenance policies are likely to «o«en the water
plans, nor BOwing climatic constraint on supply. The range of adjustment options in the face of
supply problem irnder^ acceptillg lower Delta water quality or reducing the upstream water
climate change thatr ^ SWP). One mechanism for adjusting Delta water quality policy, the current
uses (esp^ially m th ^eld different (probably stricter) standards over the next few years, giving
terqSy ewngreater priority. However, the Bay-Delta Hearing will probably not be completed for several
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The proliferation of interests and institutions focused on parts of what is, essentially, a connected
constellation of climate-sensitive policy issues in Northern California, suggest that near-future climate rhanC»
could create new ties between resource management areas, as well as new tensions. The coordinated npfrMwHW
agreement between the SWP and CVP represents a major policy adjustment to environmental uncertainty (e.g.,
variable and likely increasing requirements for carriage water to maintain water quality in the Delta, and short-
term climate fluctuations). It could act as a model for adjusting policy to other impacts of rijVnaf
Indeed, additional interagency cooperation has been proposed in the state's latest water planning document, but
no strategy has yet emerged to offer an integrated response to the interacting problems of supply, flooding,
quality, and Delta protection, which could be exacerbated by almost any nontrivial magnitude or direction of
climate change. Perhaps a new form of integrated regional planning, based on climate sensitivities is needed
given to deal with the emerging threat of climate change. '
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
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This report examines some of the options for adjusting water resource management policies in the face
of potential future climate change in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin region. We analyze the current polity
landscape (the institutions and issues involved and the social mechanisms available for adjustment), examine
responses to recent climate impacts, and describe a range of potential adjustments in the face of a climate
change that would affect water-related resources in the area.
THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Global climate wanning predicted to accompany increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases has become a major national and international policy issue. Increasingly credible predictions indicate that
anthropogenic climate changes are likely to emerge from the noise of natural climate variability during the next
decade or so. By the middle of the 21st century, global average temperatures may be 3®C to 5°C warmer than
present (World Meteorological Organization, 1985; National Academy of Sciences, 1983). Some analysts believe
that global warming is already under way (Hansen et al., 1988,1988; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1988), as evidenced
by unusually warm temperatures in the 1980s.
In concert with increasingly reliable predictions of climate change, our ability to assess their impacts has
improved (Kates et al., 1985). Researchers have studied historical climate-society relationships (Parry, 1981;
Bowden et al., 1981), assessed international implications of climate impacts (Kates, 1980), and predicted climate
change impacts on agriculture (Party et al., 1988), global food supplies (Liverman, 1987), water resources
(Hanchey et al., 1988), and other natural resource areas.
These impact studies point to disruptive and potentially irreversible climate change effects on natural
and social systems (Parry et al., 1988). The US. EnwronmentalI Protection Agents report to Congress, the
most comprehensive assessment of nationwide impacts to date, indicates how pwvasive and far-reaching climate
change effects could be: affecting water and food supply, land use, energy demand, air quality, health, and
essentially all other economic sectors. Moreover, serious impacts maybe associated with even the more modest
climate changes likely to occur well before the oft-cited benchmark of doubled greenhouse gas concentration is
reached during the mid-21st century.
Imnact oroiections have led to calls for concrete polity actions (White, 1988). Proposed responses are
aimed mosdy at reducing anthropogenic greenhoi«e gas emissions in order to preventor atleast delay, global
warming (cLerenceltetementSmmittee, 1988). Mud. e«i attentton«,givento A.
systemsfor managing climate-sensitive resources can
of 1° to 2°C is likely to occur in the next two decades even with immediate greenhouse gas emission
ADJUSTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
At the most abstract level, there are essentially two types of human responses tocHmate change:
inadvertent and purposeful Even without recognizing that thecUmate is changing, people and insUtutionswili
adjust inadvertently, through existing mechanisms. Changes will occur in how people manage water, forests,
agriculture, and other climate-sensitive resources, even in the absence of climate change adjustment policy gg
Indeed, some researchers argue that inadvertent adjustment caMi most cases, absorb the impacts of the
greenhouse effect with little or no social disruption. Others argue that the scale and magnitude of potential
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greenhouse climate changes are such that severe social impacts can only be avoided through purposeful planning
and anticipatory policies.
At least in the near-term-over the next two decades or so~the most likely policy responses will be
inadvertent, incidental, and reactive. Climate fluctuations that are either part of normal climate, or of the
greenhouse effect (there will probably be no sound scientific basis for distinguishing between these two over the
next several years), will elicit policy responses either by tripping existing response mechanisms like flood control
plans and crop damage payments, or by eliciting emergency response geared to extreme events. Thus, there is
reason, in any impact assessment, to examine existing policy mechanisms and contemporary trends which affect
social adaptability.
More purposeful adjustment will emerge only with strong belief among decision-makers that the climate
will change in the future or that climate change is actually under way. Purposeful adjustment policy might
four general forms:
do-nothing recognize the change but take no action.
laissez-faire: let systems adjust without assistance.
reactive: establish or fine-tune mechanisms as impacts accumulate and adaptive pressures build, but
take no action now.
proactive: begin a phased adjustment of resource systems now to absorb climate change.
These adjustment categories overlap, of course, and different policy mixtures will come into play in a
changing climate. For example, some economic areas may simply be left to adjust without government
assistance, while in other cases the threat to social well-being may be so great that active public policy
intervention is called for. Both inadvertent and purposeful adjustment might proceed either incrementally or as
a series of crisis responses. Resource managers might, for instance respond to climate rfiangf gradually bv
adjusting resource systems in small steps, or by responding chiefly to the most severe impacts or to surges of new
information or dire predictions.
THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLICY IN CALIFORNIA
The goal of this study is to identify policy elements that may affect response to climate changes in
California's Sacramento-San Joaquin region (Rgure 1). The focus is on issues raised by climate change in terms
of water resource impacts, the public and private institutions likely to play a role in adjustment (Table 1), and
the theoretical and practical range of adjustments available to resource managers. Thus, this analysis does not
jnrinrfg more speculative responses such as wholly new public programs aimed at stabilizing climate or the
restructuring of resource management systems in fundamental ways. Resource management theory suggests that
decision-makers in an area affected by climate change will first rely on existing mechanisms, traditional
approaches, and least-cost options as they respond to impacts, and will be slow to recognize and accept the need
for more far-reaching change. Thus, our analysis points out policy responses that might emerge over the next
several years while the climate future remains uncertain, but public pressure to mitigate future impacts grows.
'This distinction was drawn by political scientist M.H. Glantz (1979) to illustrate am- *
likely to emerge if planners view C02-induced climate change as a slow, cumulative trend ^ re?>^ses
like process (e g., if they focus on a doubling of COa). ' CUmWatlVe trend ^ a disjunct, step-
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40 80 MILES
' '
N
Sacramento-San Joaquin
Drainage Basin
N.
\
\ iie*
••"rv" 36*
i%
\
CENTRAL VALLEY '
0 SO 100 KIlOMfTERS
34*
Figure 1. California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Basin.
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Table 1. Institutions Most Likely to Play a Role in Responding to Climate Change in Northern California
o UJS. Army Corps of Engineers - (FC, ER)
o UJS. Bureau of Reclamation - (WS)
o Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) - (FC, DL, ER)
o State Federal Resource Control Board (SWRCB) - (WS, WQ)
o Department of Water Resources (DWR) - (WS, FC, DL, ER)
o The Reclamation Board - (FC, DL)
o Office of Emergency Services (DES) - (FC, DL, ER)
o Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) - (LU)
o California Department of Fish and Game -(REC)
o Suisun Resource Preservation District (LU)
o State Water Contractors - (WS)
o State Lands Commission - (LU)
o Delta Municipalities - (LU)
o Delta Advisory Planning Council (DAPC) - (FC, LU)
o Local Reclamation Districts - (DL)
o Bay Institute, Environmental Defense Fund, Other Non-governmental Organizations - (NGO's)
o East Bay Municipal and Utility District (WS, WQ)
o Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (WS)
o Association of California Water Agencies (WS)
Key to table codes:
WS - water supply
FC - flood control
LU - land use/zoning
RE - recreation
WQ - water quality
DL - delta levee maintenance
ER - emergency response
NG - non-governmental organizations
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CHAPTER 2
THREE WATER RESOURCE POLICY PROBLEMS IN CALIFORNIA
Thoueh climate pervades essentially aU social and economic aspects of water resources in the region,
future policy response will probably focus on three areas particularly vulnerable to climate change:
(1) Water supply management:
Thk TMiresents a central and linking issue in California, where water supply is the basis for most
economiJdevelopment: agricultural, industrial, recreational, etc. Water binds together climate, other natural
resources and society The chief problem here is to accommodate rising demand, short-term climate
fluctuations, the need to export water from the water-rich north to southern California, flood hazard mitigation,
and the potential for long-term climate change.
(2) Delta islands land use and maintenance:
~ . lta at lhe rnnnUence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers acts as the focus of water supply,
*1 A iPlfw ? ^ ItKor pnvimnmental protection issues, and represents a critical natural hazard and land use
wetland habitat, threatened with inundation. Much of the land, the so-called Delta islands,
problem centeredotweMeneowi^ reliabiMes Devoted mainly to a^ure, ^ Delta
is protected by a system ofl ... „revent gait water intrusion into the river system. Subsidence of the
islands are also very important in helping Prevenl !™ failure in recent vears and sea level rise or charade
Wands belo« se. level has led to an tocreaang rate** «• fcvel nseor chango,
in quantity and/or timing of freshwater runoff would exacerbate this problem.
(3) Water quality:
Sd STabSi'IVSrftKe Delta, shorMenn «i«i mrje, and sea level rise. Ms toe is intimately
related both to water supply and Delta levee maintenance.
, r-.mirr, ^onawmmt issues in the region that will likely prove sensitive to
Of course, there are ^ g functions Qf San Francisco Bay and bay-shore land use, forestry, dryland
climate change, including the . energy use. But the pivotal importance of water development, plus
for an initial impact assessment.
, r ,m. ^ is not to prescribe response policy. The policy impUcations raised here are
The goal of thutr^late better predictions of climate change and impacts into policy
meant to guide later analysts wno wu oredictions or to actual climate impacts, that climate change
responses if a consensus emerges, owing to new preaicuuu* %
warrants overt public policy response.
WATER SUPPLY MANAGEMENT
, „ - matuwinff California's water resources is the natural spatial and temporal
The underlying challenge m uuqp* More than two-thirds of the state's surface water supply
maldistribution of supply and demand in. _ ^ ^ state's population and 80% of the total demand for
originates north of about Sacramento, wnu seasonality of runoff: most of the runoff occurs during
water lie to the south. AnoftwnJ^"durtogjUne-August. Finally, as population has grown, demand has
November-April while peak demand oc^J d some areas, while conflict over use and allocation
increased. Subsequently, supply reliability has been «re*«u
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is growing in others. The study areas is also subject to flooding during the runoff season, and substantial public
investment has been devoted to flood control, especially along the American River near Sacramento.
Water resource management policy in the region has been changing over the last decade, and California
is today at a critical juncture in water development that makes the region particularly sensitive to climate
uncertainty. The salient management change has been a swing away from building large storage and conveyance
facilities, to more flexible and efficient operations of existing facilities. Wolman and Wolman (1986) observed
that this trend is evident throughout the country. In California, environmental and economic factors have slowed
the development of physical facilities over the past decade, reducing the buffer of "excess" capacity and creating
marked water supply and flood control vulnerabilities to climate: and other perturbations.
The Policy Environment of Water Supply
Northern California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Basin is the setting for two of the largest and most
elaborate water management systems in the world: the Bureau of Reclamation's Central Valley Project (CVP),
and the State Water Project (SWP) planned and operated by California's Department of Water Resources
(DWR). These two agencies lie at the focus of a complex set of social institutions including the water users
(ranging from small irrigation companies to the Metropolitan Water District, which has call on almost half of
the SWP's total supply for delivery in southern California), other state and federal agencies with regulatory power
over water-related issues (e.g., the Corps of Engineers, which sets flood control policy, and the State Water
Resources Control Board (SWRCB), which regulates water quality and sets water rights), and environmental
advocacy groups, which are particularly powerful and visible policy players in California.
The Kev Issue is Lone-term Water Supply Adequacy
Both the CVP and SWP employ large surface water storage to capture winter and spring runoff for use
during the summer peak demand period. Elaborate systems of canals, aqueducts, pumping plants, and other
control structures deliver water to agricultural, municipal, and industrial users.
The foremost concern vis-a-vis climate change is the system's overall adequacy in the face of changes
in total runoff or its timing. The SWP's supply reliability is defined in its statutes and contracts with users as the
ability to meet requests in all but the most "extraordinary conditions." Until 1977, this reliability was supported
by a large buffer between supply and delivery (Figure 2), which not only assured long-term supply but made
seasonal deliveries more reliable. If the rains stopped late in the wet season, managers could still meet projected
demand by drawing on the large buffer supply.
Because the project was in many respects a response by the state legislature to severe drought in 1928-
34 (when the need for drought-proofing was first voiced), managers acted very conservatively, tending to treat
every dry spell as if it were a recurrence of this historical event. Thus, the worst drought on record became the
project's design target, a water planning for such multiple-year droughts was further supported by the occurrence
of several back-to-back dry years in the mid-1950s.
The overall goal is to meet user demands and fulfill the actual and implied contract that the SWP will
not fail to deliver at least a predetermined minimum supply. Such risk-averse planning and operation creates
a situation in which actual supply exceeds firm yield most of the time. SWP managers deal with this by rfoHarinp
the excess for delivery as surplus rather than contract water. Contract amounts are tied to estimates of minimum
project yield, while surplus water is not guaranteed from year to year, and thus acts as a flexible buffer to
contracted supplies. This situation is good for users, who can place great confidence in basic SWP supply
reliability, as well as benefitting from the sale of cheaper, "surplus" water.
SWP development is guided by a long-term plan which projects a total demand of 3.6 million acre-feet
(maf) by the year 2010 (see California Department of Water Resources, 1983). Users set the demand
projections by providing DWR with their capital investment plans. Phased facilities development was planned
to keep firm yield larger than projected demand, but projects (such as the proposed Auburn Dam and Delta
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A
Year
B
10
8
8
- 7
* e
« 5
I «
s
I 3
2
1
0
»•« Firm VI*Id
1 ' ' 1 ' 1 ' ' 1
' ' '
1970
1070
1080
I860
' ' ' ' 1
1880
Year
Figure 2. Water deliveries and firm yield levels for (a) the State Water Project and (b) the Central Valley
Project.
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p^Hnheral Canal) have been delayed owing to environmental and economic constraints. In con"1-1 t the
lareer-than-expected water requirements for meeting Delta water quality standards (discussed below), these
delays have made the SWP quite sensitive to climate impacts in ^dS^luppli^ are
Coordinated Operations Agreement (VS. Bureau of Reclamation, 1986) in which CVP and SWP supplies are
shared:
The CVP for an interim period of time, has water for which it has no facilities to fully deliver that
water tofederaTMntractors! The SWP, on the other hand, has conveyance capacity availablebut an
insufficient water supply with which to fully utilize its system (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, 1986).
That is the CVP has a surplus of water and the SWP is short, especially in relation to users' projected
reauirements These different sensitivities are seen in the two water systems relative capacities. The CVP has
requirements inese omerc ^ water available m au but the driest years, usually calculated to allow
a reliable or firm yield (the rouehlv 9 4 maf, while the SWP has a equivalent firm yield
shortages ft yX aiiouAt'can be deUvered in 9 out of 10 years) of 2.4 maf
The CVP has delivered between 7 and 8 maf to users over the last several years, while the SWP has
Sm^dngWracted deUveries of up to 2 maf in recent years and delivering an additional 1 maf in surplus
water.
r;rowing Climate Sensitivity Raises User Concerns
SWP Planners faced growing constraints on adding new facilities during the 1970s (see Sudman, 1983
and FrancescW and Sudman, 1983). Storage capacity increased little while contract water requests quadrupled
XomTfmaf to 13 maf) between 1970 and 1975, exceeding the project's 0.9 maf 99% firm yield, and
approached :he 2.4 maf 90% firm yield in the early-1980s (Figure 2). The system was becoming more sensitive
to Sate fluctuations, and users could reasonably ask whether it would protect them form future drought if new
facilities were further delayed.
The 1976-77 drought created a crisis that highlighted its growing climate sensitivity and illustrated the
nature of managerial response to climate impacts. The drought produced the driest rainy season on record,
Mmine deliveries to fall below firm yield targets in 1977. Managers curtailed deliveries to avoid eventual storage
H^Xion- firm aericultural water deUveries in 1977 were shorted by 60%, and municipal/industrial supplies were
reduced by 10% (California Department of Water Resources, 1978). Total deUveries declined from 2.05 maf
in 1976 to 0.9 maf in 1977.
These shortages provoked calls by users and poUcymakers for an evaluation of dry-year deUvery poUcies
-the key management criteria in any water system. Recognizing that they might not be able to increase project
suooUes in the near future, SWP managers were being forced to make a strategic choice between operating the
system to protect its long-term supply or to keep operations flexible. By keeping as much water in storage as
possible a strategy that calls for occasional deUvery curtailments early in developing droughts, managers could
increase the probabiUty of making future deUveries even under dry conditions. Alternatively, they could accept
greater risks of storage depletion by maintaining fuU contract deUveries as future droughts develop, rather than
saving water in storage. The choice, made in the midst of the severe 1976-77 drought, was to protect long-term
supply by giving priority to end-of-year storage. This choice meant risking shortages in current-year deUveries
that later may have proven to be unnecessary because an incipient drought failed to intensify (California
Department of Water Resources, 1977).
Tins water allocation policy was codified in a "rule curve," which determined deUveries and carry-over
storage during periods of short supply (see California Department of Water Resources, 1977 and 1978). Users,
who had become skeptical of informal, intuitive water aUocation decisions used in the past, supported the more
rigid approach at first. Because many users were still making long-term capital investments in the use of
contracted water, they approved of the strategy aimed at maintaining the project's abiUty to deUver even reduced
water amounts over the long-term, rather than maintaining fuU deUveries at the risk of eventual supply depletion
(Snow, 1976; Robie, 1976).
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The new rule curve was not involved again for several years. Yet, due to continued demand growth,
tightened water quality standards in the Delta, and a referendum blocking construction of the Peripheral Canal
(which would have increased firm yield by perhaps 1 maf), SWP managers estimated in 1983 that, even with
conservative Slinnlv inanaoamant rAnnoctc wahU 2— — *
Readjusting AIKH'"" Policies
Conservative supply management and growing demand set the stage for the sharp drought of 1985, when
f L,Sfirurtailed current year deliveries in order to meed minimum needs if the
the rule curve called for s,8® Users reasoned that unnecessary delivery shortages--a frequent problem
Sri^Slmcriteri?in a variable climate-might be worse than simply running out of water further into
a multi-year drought.
_ . . , axAA„„t in SWP documents- Noting that the 1977 rule curve "...emphasized
This attitude change » -orobably due to the unprecedented drought conditions prevailing at the
credibility at the exJf^,J^^D^aftment 0f Water Resources, 1985a), SWP managers began to question its
The situation had, perhaps, been anticipated 2 years
earlier in the 1983 update of the state's water plan:
» • ~. th* ranabilitv of increasing developed supplies over the next several decades may
...uncertainty risks in delivering water to customers....Some water projects
justify and in fact a ^phoT annual supply, leaving less carryover storage in case of
(could) take greater Urn* in »onnal facilities may be
1Q8Tt
. « nrrvsnects for increasing raw supply and recent large short-term swings in
AtStfSSSSt 55- proC6duIM-" "*
L-,.. t K„ie Curve procedure (99%) may be more restrictive than intended in
The objective reliability of the hum , foreCast magnitude of available supply has been more
Water Supply Contracts, so that tne 1 . .. furtlier delayed during the runoff season than may be
of W«er R«o»rc«. 1985.).
A new policy emerged: Ohm aaqxtag greater
full contact deliveries early in a dra«£ This "variable risk" approach would help managers avoid
risk of failing to meet subsequent year /• ^ would make seasonal supply projections less likely
imposing unnecessary shortages during
to be revised downward.
„ crisis-driven policy process that shifted from rigid
In the case of the projwfbecame more sensitive to climate impacts. Flexible
allocation criteria to more ftadblc> nue»» ^ raw supply, can help a water system adjust to
operations, in Ueu of further ph)»g fagb^ the "absorptive capacity" provided byvanable-risk allocation
some diraate change. But, the problem «to
rules.
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Summary: Potential Future Adjustments in Water SuppIv
Options for adjusting California water supplies to climate change (see Table 2) range from continuing
the traditional approach of building more and larger physical facilities (at least until all available supply is
controlled) to what might be called "softer" options, including a mixture of behavioral (e.g., conservation),
institutional (e.g., water marketing) and technical options (e.g., water-reuse, groundwater banking, and smaller,
specialized physical facilities like the Auburn "dry dam" for flood control). There is, of course, the possibility that
a rapid deterioration of climate, imposed on an already sensitive system, could lead to drastic measures which,
in the past, have been needed only in extreme years.
Table 2. Options for Water Supply and Flood Control Adjustments in California
n The traditional option: build larger facilities/increase supplies: Given sufficient public will and financing,
ImmSteand water conveyance facilities could be built to reduce the impacts of climate change.
fSfeWhoJevTthL last drop of water available in the state or already al ocated for importation from the
cSado woiId ^ utilized" or new faciUties would e blocked by economic and environmental constraint,
SSaa. waste water reclamation, cloud seeding, desahniza ion, or imports from beyond the
Colorado E-woSd be required. Many of these options have been mentioned in recent water plan updates.
The^e has been a large interest in weather modification in the past and this adjustment would most likely re-
emerge in any future supply shortage.
2) A broad range of incremental adjustment: The most likely response to climatic and other threats to reliable,
aualitvwate7supply, is a mixture of incremental behavioral and institutional changes including conservation,
wafer re use enhanced joint-system management, and reallocation of supplies via some form of water marketing.
S1987 Sate of the state's water plan promotes a form of broad-range adjustment, yet it stdl evinces a bias
toward newT but smaller, physical faciUties and structural improvements.
^ th- draconian alternative: If climate conditions were to worsen dramatically in the next few years in the
aresL and riven the growing climate-sensitivity already exhibited by present water systems, decision-makers might
hTnressed to instigate dramatic water-use restrictions, essentially implementing permanently, the "emergency"
measures taken during recent droughts. Among these adjustments would be prohibiting most "non-essential"
uses and quicker transfers of agricultural water to municipal and industrial uses.
A "wild-card" in this list of broad alternative responses is the real and perceived need for flood control-
-which conflicts with supply management. If there is pressure to increase flood protection by decreasing reservoir
storage in the basin, say if spring runoff increases due to the greenhouse effect, then the ability to meet demand
will decrease. The trade-off between water supply and flood control in northern California represents a
potentially serious policy conflict affecting all levels of government in the region. While some climatic shifts (e.g.,
a smoothing of the area's marked precipitation seasonality) would ease this tension, even small shifts toward
earlier runoff or more extreme rainfall events would worsen the supply/flood control trade-off situation. Given
that similar tensions exist in other water systems that provide both flood control and water supply (e.g., the
Colorado River), there is a need for a broad assessment of this issue vis-a-vis changing water demands and
potential climate change.
The overarching trend in water resource development policy in northern California over the last decade
has been a de-emphasizing of large physical facilities. Project planners recognize a need to re-establish a buffer
between supply and demand, but have been constrained by institutional forces (e.g., water law and listing water
user charters) not to turn to economic or other strategies (i.e., through competitive bidding or water right sales-
-water marketing-which might yield more efficient allocation) to achieve a supply less sensitive to climatic inputs.
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Thus their plans continue to include new physical facilities despite growing financial and environmental
constraints on this traditional approach to water system development.
Without having explicitly considered potential climate change as a rationale, the recently revised
development dan for the SWP (California Department of Water Resources, 1987) includes several actions and
facilities that would allow the system to absorb at least small climate changes. Spurred by success of coordinated
operations with the CVP (aimed mostly at meeting Delta water quality requirements and dry-year demand) the
sSe and federal governments are discussing further sharuif5 (probably^htional water purchases from the CVP)
and further "optimizing" of joint project management. Indeed, thel987 plan actualfy suggested the possibdity
of state management of both SWP and CVP facilities. Completely joint management could produce more than
1 maf additional firm yield in the system.
Besides operational adjustments, the 1987 plan calls for construction of offstream storage at Dm Banos
frrandes south of the Delta (an approach and site less likely to draw serious environmental opposition than, say,
A.T,rnnaS anH^mnrovementsin Delta pumping and conveyance facilities. Through these strategies, the
Auburn Dam), ^d improvements nigera PW ^ (pigure 3) just short of expected demand
(SSto^be overestimated) of 3.6 maf. Thus, supply and demand will stijlbe closely balanced, but there
S^efted -m fteUtf pin would help the SWP absorb at least some of the greenhouse climate change possible
over the next few decades.
DELTA ISLANDS LAND USE AND MAINTENANCE ISSUES
„ . , .. nf levees and islands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is another
Maintenance of the fy5 California. The Delta faces two key threats from climate change:
climate-sensitive policy issue in Northern i^auior .. . rnvtitive even in the absence of climate chaiwe
reduced runoff and sea level rise. It is becoming more clunate-sensitive, even in me aosence 01 climate change,
due to natural and anthropogenic land degradation.
, , , .. of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers, this freshwater delta lies at the
, J**(Figure 4). The Delta is "probably...the State's most valuable water
heart of California s waiterjJS^^-nt of Water Resources, 1987). A system of levees assists in maintaining
supply" element Delta bv repelling the eastward intrusion of salt water from San Francisco Bay.
the freshwater char^r°f maintain quality at CVP and SWP pumping stations in the southern
The repulsion of salt water * important to wildlife and recreation. In addition, the levee system
Deltit Fresh water in tteJ^ta is^mp^j^^ ^ below sea level (Figure 5). These islands are
protects land use on the islands in . ^ r0Trlinimities mid their associated infrastructures. In light of
federA W mi toal ta«e ta»™« h proavbg th, rf
levees and islands.
Less than 150 years ago, the 700,000 acres of the Delta were sea level freshwater and tidal marsh.
Through marsh reclamation and damming and diverting of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers, the Delta
has gradually been transformed from a natural, fluctuating environmental system into an artificially maintained
one Today the Delta contains roughly 60 islands protected by 1100 miles of levees These islands and levees
are constructed mostly of the Delta's indigenous peat, Mnd, and silt sods. Wmd erosion, option, compaction,
and consolidation of these soils have reduced the la») surface of almost all of the wtoads to below sea level
(Figure 5). Levee failures are common occurrences: Since original reclamation, each of the 70 islands and tracts
in the statutory Delta (defined in Section 12220 of the OJforma Water code) has been flooded at least once.
Over 1 no levee failures have occurred since the early 1890s.
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iM-LVLU
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a. C
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Figure 5. Delta land elevations showing lands below sea level (minus values).
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The Delta Problem
Simolv stated the Delta islands are threatened with catastrophic degradation due to sea level rise, land
subsidence, wave and current action, and levee deterioratioa Also, any changes in freshwater inflow to the Delta
or outflow to San Francisco Bay, due to climate change or to consumptive changes^ affec Delta water quality
Thus, in addition to being a valuable component in the state s water supply system, the Delta may also be viewed
as the "weak link" in that system. The Delta problem is particularly complex because of the many pubhc and
nrivate interests with a stake in the issue. The key question raised in any consideration of the climate threat is,
staply, how much effort, and with what policy mechanisms, is to be committed to maintaining the Delta in the
face of physical threats.
We aooroach this question by first describing the policies and institutions that affect the Delta. Once
this "policy landscape" is laid out, it is possible to discern likely response to near-future climate change.
Institutions and Policies Delta Maintenance
The Delta and levee problem comes under the purview of several public institutions, each with different
.™f. ' rn Indeed this issue may eventually prove more controversial than water supply and
responsibilities and conwrn Meed tto ^ue mg^ ^ to ^ ^ a somewhat differem
flood control. Thus,sUdd1v area. The approach here is to examine in detail the institutions and
approach is taken than in the ?&Lte change and sea level rise further threaten the Delta. Throughout
uSlS ™ ta/Ttae £>fey trends and mechanisms which point to a continuing effort to protect the
Delta at any cost.
(rather than its typical keep of the privately owned, "non-project levees" (Figures 6 and
build some Delta levees, the m^tenanoewi P P ^ responsibiIity of the individual owners. However, if
7), which comprise 95% of th^ P® ,i trict serve as representatives of individual levee owners) wish to
levee owners (or local «cl^f^a^ttey^^ed to obtain a permit from the USACE.
make repairs or improvements on a levee, iney H
., . m-rhanism for permitting levee construction and maintenance, called a
But the USACE has«ibtenkej^d«n:'on*r ^ ^ ^ ^ for ^
"nationwide permit, that authome ^ a commonly used nationwide permit is a "No. 3," which
management throughout the country. t of a structure or fill which was previously authorized and
allows for "repair, re^rll^tl0"'? LL not deviate from the structure's original plans, no additional permit
currently serviceable. If this repair uu®
must be obtained to carry out the work.
. that changes its original design, the owner may have to obtain a
In cases of major work on a i Harbors Act of 1889 requires approval prior to any work in
"Section 10" permit. Section 10 oi tneru „ location, condition, or capacity of such waters (all tidal
or over navigable waters, or which an ^ ^ and, hence, navigable). Typical activities requiring
waters are considered navigable; auueiia wharves, marina ramps, dredging, and excavation.
Section 10 permits are the construction of piers, wharves, m f*
artixntie* that result in some material being deposited onto wetlands, or
Construction or mamtenance ^u^ (pursuant to Section 404 of the Clean Water Act),
into existing water bodies, require a aeown , driX0H nr fill material as well as construction of levees, dams.
Typical 404 permit activities include deposwon w
and dikes.
. today mostly for environmental protection, and they might, in
These permitting processesi tfejweti ^ ^ ^deration of alternatives to continued
theory, result in delayed or reduced maintenance^ ^ fof -Emergency Bank Rehabilitation" (General
maintenance. However the USAC^."£jSunder the authority of Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act
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LOCAL FLOOD CONTROL,
NONPROJECT LEVEES
|r Kp]
SCALE IN MILES
Figure 6. Non-federal levees in the Delta.
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basins. The purpose of this permit is to allow emergency repair of eroded levees and streambanks by the DWR
or its authorized representative (usually the local reclamation district). The intent of GP-35 is to authorize work
on severely eroded levees when there is a threat to levee integrity which poses a hazard to life or property loss.
Thus, federal regulatory mechanisms for maintaining the status quo, and fighting physical degradation
of the Delta due to climate change, are in place. A similar set of state policies also support maintenance in the
face of physical threat.
The Reclamation Board. The Reclamation Board was established in 1911 to help oversee flood control
efforts in the Central Valley. The Board also has jurisdiction over all project levees in the Delta It thus assures
the federal government that Delta levees will be properly maintained. The actual maintenance is usually carried
out either by a local reclamation district of the DWR. The law governing The Reclamation Board is codified
in the California Water Code, Part 4, Sections 8520-9377. Other parts of the Code, especially Sections 8340-
9577 and 12878-12878.45, inclusive, assign responsibilities to the Board regarding the maintenance of flood
protection works. Since 1956, the Board has been administratively part of the DWR. However, by statute, it
continues to function as a separate agency in exercising its responsibilities for flood management on the
Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers and their tributaries.
Another important function of the Board is the co-administration, with the DWR, of the State Delta
Levee Maintenance Subventions Program. In 1973, the State Legislature passed Senate Bill 541~also known as
the Way Bill-which provides State financial assistance to Delta agencies for maintaining and improving non-
project Delta levees for flood protection of Delta islands. This program operates pursuant to the California
Water Code, Chapter 3, Sections 12980-12991.
Section 12981 of the Water Code states, "...the physical characteristics of the Delta should be preserved
essentially in their present form, and that the key to preserving the delta's physical characteristics is the system
of levees defining the waterways and producing the adjacent islands." However, this stance has since been
"softened" with the addition of another sentence to section 12981 in 1985 which states: "However, the Legislature
recognizes that it may not be economically justifiable to maintain all Delta islands."
Section 12982 also states:
The Legislature further finds and declares that while most of the Delta's levees are privately owned and
maintained they are being subjected to various multiple uses and serve to benefit many varied segments
and interests of the public at large, and that as a result of the varied multiple uses of such levees, added
maintenance costs are being borne by adjacent landowners.
Thus, there exists a formal policy statement in support of maintaining the levees against physical threat.
Of course, there is a range in values of the Delta islands. Some islands contain communities and highways, for
instance, while others are strictly agricultural. Although the general policy is for maintenance of the present
Delta configuration, there is precedence for allowing some inundation to go unreclaimed. In 1983, Mildred
Island's 997 acres of strictly agricultural land, which had recently sold for roughly $1 million, were flooded by
levee failure. Estimated total costs of its reclamation, including public and private funds, have ranged from $5
to $10 million, and, consequently, it has not been reclaimed. (Section 12981 was one reason cited for not
reclaiming the island.) But other islands are certainly more likely to be protected and to be reclaimed if flooded
In addition to increasing real estate values, islands in the western Delta are important in repelling salt water
intrusion. Failure of one of these islands would undermine water quality in the Delta and would reverberate
upstream to water supply and flood control activities.
Currently, the State of California funds the Delta Levee Subvention Program at $2 million annually.
Pursuant to Section 12986, these monies are distributed to the local reclamation districts in the following manner:
1) No costs incurred shall be reimbursed if the entire cost incurred per mile of levee is $1000 or less.
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2) Fifty percent of any costs incurred in excess of $1000 per mile of levee shall be reimbursed.
Efforts are under way to increase funding of the Subventions Program. A bill proposed by state Senator
Boatwright (Senate Bill No. 34), would, until January 1,1999, "...authorize reimbursement for 75% of any costs
incurred in excess of $1,000 per mile of levee and delete the $2,000,000 per year limitation." In addition, "...The
bill would, until January 1, 1999, create the Delta Flood Protection Fund, would declare legislative intent to
appropriate $12,000,000 each year to the fund through fiscal year 1998-1999 from specified tidelands oil and gas
revenues and would declare legislative intent to annually appropriate from the fund $6,000,000 for local assistance
for the maintenance and improvement of delta levees...and $6,000,000 for special delta flood protection projects
and for subsidence studies and monitoring."
Thus, the Subventions Program funding would be increased to $6,000,000 annually and $6,000,000 would
be allocated to flood protection projects and subsidence studies and monitoring. Funds allocated for these
projects, studies, and monitoring, "...shall only be allocated for projects on Bethel, Bradford, Holland, Hotchkiss,
Jersey, Sherman, Twitchell, and Webb islands in the delta.." These islands are clustered in the western Delta,
and here the Legislature may be showing more its concern for overall water quality problems rather than a
simple commitment to island maintenance. According to many California water management officials, the
passage of this bill is imminent.
Local Reclamation Districts. Local reclamation districts are representatives of the private owners of
Delta levees and islands. These districts do most of the maintenance on the levees within the Delta and have
the authority to raise funds form three major sources:
1) The California Water Code empowers the districts to create and update assessment rolls of the
lands within their boundaries on which the governing board can periodically level assessment.
2) The reclamation districts' governing boards are also mandated by the Water Code to establish a
schedule of charges and fees for services and benefits provided by the districts.
3) Those districts that use county assessment rolls to levy special taxes for levee maintenance continue
to receive an allocation under the post-Proposition 13 tax collection by the county, which includes
property revenues and state subventions.
Until 1980, funds made available for levee maintenance and restoration from these sources had been
relatively small-less than $1 million per year. However, due to the large number (24) of levee failures since
1980, the local districts were assessed up to their capacity to pay. Because of this trend of increased levee
failures, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other emergency services agencies have
played an increasingly important role in the levee maintenance and repair issue.
Rmwiwncv Service Agencies. In the event that a levee failure is part of a flood or storm which becomes
a federally declared national disaster, the Federal Emergency Management Agency provides emergency repair
funds. These funds are administered pursuant to Public Law 93-288 (PL 93-288>-the Disaster Act. Generally,
federal funds are combined with state funds on a 75:25 basis during federally declared emergencies. The funds
provided by FEMA flow through the State of California Office of Emergency Services (OES) to local
reclamation districts, counties, and cities.
Due to the recent increase in the number of floods in the region (discussed in the water supply section)
and resulting levee failures, FEMA felt they were providing too much money for emergency repairs. They
pushed to have Delta levees upgraded to minimum standard, as stated in the recent Flood Hazard Mitigation
Plan (Office of Emergency Services, 1986). The plan, required in all federal flood disasters, also proposed a
levee inspection program to be carried out by the DWR. This inspection is to be made annually and the results
reported to FEMA. The DWR does not have the power to make local districts comply with their
r»™mn,»nHatif.ns for levee standards or with the Inspection Plan. However, if the local districts do not upgrade
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their levees to or above the standards described in the "Short-Term Rehabilitation Plan" (Park 4, Section c, No.
2, of the Flood Hazard Mitigation Plan), they may lose eligibility for FEMA-sponsored emergency funds in the
future.
In 1986, FEMA, the OES, and the local reclamation districts signed an amendment to the Flood Hazard
Mitigation Plan stating that in order for local reclamation districts to receive federally sponsored disaster aid,
they must commit to upgrading levees to at least the minimum standards set forth in the Mitigation Plan (i.e.,
1 foot of levee freeboard above 100-year flood elevations) within a 5-year period. Thus, the Hazard Mitigation
Plan provides another policy mechanism for fighting climate impacts.
Summary: Delta Protection Has Large Institution Backing. But Increasing Climate Threat Mav Eventually
Force Alternatives
It is reasonable to expect that the broad array of agencies, policy mechanisms, and interests lined up to
protect the Delta islands, even in the face of major threats from sea level rise and other climate change
phenomena, will result in substantial public investment if, indeed, the physical threat increases. A range of
possible response options is given in Table 3 (see also MacCracken et ai., 1987).
Table 3. Range of Options in Delta Land Use
1) Inaction: This would probably result in the formation of a large, brackish inland sea as levees fail
and salt water penetrates farther inland.
2) Maintenance of status quo: This will require strengthening and extending the levee system.
3) Construction of polder levees: This entails enclosing groups of islands with levees to form large
polders. Such a proposal has generally been deemed unsuitable by recreational and wildlife
interests.
4) "Strategic Inundation": This hypothetical strategy (no agency has formally proposed it) allows for
the permanent flooding of islands which have no or little role in repelling salt water intrusion and
have relatively low land values. Efforts could be made to capitalize on the alternative benefits of
the open water and marsh created by this, and to create a circum-Delta conduit for water transfers
to the California Aqueduct (something like the Peripheral Canal, now referred to as some form of
"isolated canal").
It can be argued that, given the importance of the Delta to California's water supply and quality, and
the California Legislature's commitment to "preserving the Delta's physical characteristics," inaction is not a likely
option. Indeed, the forces for maintaining the Delta in something close to its current configuration are great,
and, thus, maintenance of the status quo is the most likely genera] policy goal over the next several years.
The idea of mega-levees enclosing groups of islands as "polders" in the Dutch tradition is feasible from
an engineering standpoint, but, although it has been mentioned, has received little attention. Similarly, some
form of "Delta sacrifice" or strategic retreat in Delta land use might be appropriate given the potential for large
protective investments that are eventually overwhelmed, but it is probably unacceptable to most Delta interests.
Recently, however, the Legislature indicated that it might "soften" its stance towards Delta island
reclamation (see the 1985 addition to Section 12981 of the California Water code), and it is possible that
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something approximating a strategic inundation policy might emerge over the next few decades. Sea level rise
will increase the frequency of levee failures (Figures 8 and 9). ITie case of Mildred Island~a relatively low-
value island that is not required to maintain Delta water quality—is instructive; it has remained flooded since the
1983 levee failure because estimated reclamation costs outweigh its value. If the threat of levee failure and the
cost of maintaining levees increases in the face of climate change over the next several years, it is possible that
more land will remain unreclaimed.
DELTA WATER QUALITY ISSUES
Another potential consequence of climate change and sea level rise in the Sacramento-San Joaquin
region is the further eastward intrusion of salt water into the Delta. The Bay-Delta system can be crudely
divided into three sections based on water quality: 1) the fresh water Delta, 2) the dilute sea water of San Pablo
Bay and the more saline San Francisco Bay, and 3) the brackish water of Suisun Bay. An estuarine environment
like Suisun Bay, where fresh water mixes with saline oceanic waters, is critical to several aspects of resource
management in the region. The planktonic richness of the Bay produces nursery conditions for striped bass and
other species (Davoren and Ayres, 1983). But, the system is quite sensitive to climatic inputs. During 1977,
when Sacramento-San Joaquin River discharge dropped to a new record low (below 100 m3sec-l), phytoplankton,
zooplankton, and striped bass abundance were all significantly reduced (Nichols et al., 1986). Rising sea level
would likely force this null zone eastward into the Delta.
Withdrawals of fresh water from the southern Delta by the SWP and CVP further encourage the
eastward-moving salt water flux. When fresh water flow from the Sacramento River is low, SWP pumping plants
filling the California Aqueduct for water exports to southern California may cause reverse flows by drawing water
from the San Joaquin River. Under such circumstances, water in the western Delta becomes brackish as it mixes
with salty ocean water entering the Delta under tidal flow. It was this tidal flow, intensified by persistent onshore
winds, that caused water supply allocation problems in the SWP during 1985 (as described above). Further
eastward penetration of this brackish water would have obvious, serious consequences for the SWP and CVP and
their respective contractors. Increased fresh water outflow from the Delta could help repel this intrusion.
However, an increase of fresh water outflow would require the diversion of water from the southern Delta's
pumping plants and the agricultural and urban interests they serve.
Institutions and Policies Ap"aved for Water OnalitY
As in the maintenance of the Delta levee system, responsibilities and interests in the repulsion of sea
water from the Delta overlap among many different agencies and interest groups. This section discusses the
commitments and responsibilities of the main players in this climate-sensitive issue.
in the
State
State Water Rqffliffl* r°ntro1 Board (SWRCB). The SWRCB is arguably the pivotal agency involved
s issue of salt water intrusion, as well as Bay-Delta water quality in general. The Board, established by the
State Legislature in 1969, is divided into two statutory divisions: water rights and water quality. The powers of
the Board are spelled out in the Porter-Cologne Water Quality Control Act The Board's water right authority
is quite distinct and separate from its water quality authority. Its water right function is strictly a state
responsibility, while its water quality control authority is pursuant to the Porter-Cologne Act as well as the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act (PL 92-500).
t5tv nf wate, the point of diversion, the uses to be made of the water, and the
Permits specify a rate or quanUty ^waier, ^ ^ putt£) any use, as long as the use is "reasonable-
place of use. Generally, the user can ui
and not wasteful.
t from the delta are, of course, the SWP and the CVP. The permits
The two largest di^rs*^°anf} rvp facilities are in accord with Water Right Decision 1485 (D-1485),
issued by the SWRCB for the SWP ana
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Figure 8. Current estimated frequency of levee failure.
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adopted in August 1978. D-1485 requires as a condition in the SWF and CVP permits the maintenance of water
quality standards as adopted in the "Delta Plan," except for the southern Delta (These standards are listed in
Table II of D-1485). The underlying principle of those standards is "...that water quality in the Delta should
be at least as good as those levels which would have been available had the state and federal projects not been
constructed as limited by the constitutional mandate of reasonable use. The standards include adjustments in
the levels of protection to reflect chanty i" hyHrnlngic conditions" experienced under different types of weather
conditions (Water Right Decision 1485, SWRCB, 1978, emphasis added). Thus, there is some possibility left
open for adjusting standards if climate conditions make them difficult or impossible to achieve.
When D-1485 was issued, the SWRCB stated it believed the level of protection afforded was
"reasonable" However, the Board also recognized the possible need to revise these standards in the future. In
keeping open the possibility of future changes, "the board...recogniz(ed) the uncertainty associated with possible
future project facilities and the need for additional information on the complex effects of project operations and
varying water quality conditions in the Delta and Suisun March." The Board also stated its intent "...to reopen
the hearing on this matter within eight years from the adoption date, depending upon the availability of
aAtitjnnal information upon which to re-examine these standards." Those standards are currently (not in 1986,
as originally intended) being reviewed at the Bay-Delta Hearing in Sacramento. The hearing, which started in
mid-1987, is expected to take several years to complete.
In summary, D-1485 requires that water quality standards in the Delta be satisfied prior to any export
from the Delta to other areas for any purpose. The decision, which binds the federal CBP to the permitting
terms of the SWRCB, was issued by the U.S. Supreme Court in California v. United States on July 3,1978. This
decision declared that a state may impose any condition on control, appropriation, use, or distribution of water
in a federal reclamation project that is not inconsistent with clear congressional directives on the project. Thus,
in the event of rising sea level and possible further penetration of saline water into the Delta, the SWRCB is
likely to be the agency responsible for maintaining or changing Delta water quality standards. There will be
pressure from environmental groups, such as the Environmental Defense Fund, and resource management
agencies such as the California Department of Fish and Game, to maintain these standards as high as possible.
On the other hand, CVP and SWP users and managers might seek a relaxation of the standards in order to
extract water from the Delta, especially if runoff decreases, or as discussed in the section on water supply, the
seasonality of runoff changes and some form of additional lower-basin or even below-delta storage is necessary.
fan Francisco Bav Conservation and Development Commission fBCnr.V The BCDC was established
as a temporary state agency with the passage of the McAteer-Petris Act of 1965. The tasks of the BCDC were
to prepare a plan for the long-term use of the Bay and to regulate development in and around the Bay while the
plan was being prepared.
The San Francisco Bay plan, completed in January 1969, includes policies on issues ranging from ports
to public access. In August 1969, the act was amended to make BCDC a permanent agency as well as to
incorporate the Bay Plan's policies into state law. In 1977, the Suisun Marsh Protection Plan expanded the
Commission's authority to include the protection of Suisun Marsh.
The BCDC's responsibility in the Suisun Marsh Protection Plan includes at least an assessment role in
the matter of salt water intrusion. A recent BCDC report focused on several engineering steps for dealing with
sea level rise: "Salt water intrusion will require additional structures and diversion canals to move fresh water
form farther upstream into the marsh. Pumps will be required to drain many of the duck clubs as sea level
rises". But, the report suggested that "...the outboard levees, constructed on compressible peat soils, will be
subject to subsidence and overtopping from high water. Although it may be feasible from an engineering
standpoint to protect the managed wetlands, the economic cost may be very high" (Moffat and Nichols. 1987).
It is not clear at this time however, what final role the BCDC migh?play to po£ r^?«Zi« 2
intrusion or even levee failure given future climate change.
, e . SWfW tosourc? Conservation pjstrfo ffiRCP.). The principal regulatory agency in matters pertaining
to Suisun Marsh water management is the Suisun Resource Conservation District. The SRCD has primary local
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resDonsibilitv for "regulating and improving water management practices on privately owned lands within the
orimarv manaeement area of the Suisun March in conformity with Division 19 and the Suisun March Protection
Plan.Thesepowers are conferred to the district in Section 9962, Chapter 12 of Division 9 of the California
Public Resources Code.
The main concerns of the SRCD regarding rising sea level and climate change are typical of most Delta
organizations: salt water intrusion (coping with this problem is probably the district s mm reason for eastence)
and levee failure Also most of the managed wetlands of Suisun March are drained by gravity/tidal gates.
SttfseaSet wouldlUte V* tidal ^useless and likely turn Suisun Marsh into a tidal wetland.
Th* cum i< nartv to the "Suisun Marsh Preservation Agreement." Other signees are the DWR,
! » u L ral^omia Department of Fish and Game. Also known as the Tour Party
Bureau of Re^aW ^ Ita (o a K( ^ ^ ^
SSZfto it a«ur« tha ft. DWK ami -P* «""*• ¦»
Marsh to mitigate the adverse effects of SWP and
-ac As the managers of the two largest water delivery systems in the state, the
Water PdiW Department of Water Resources have a strong interest in possible sea
US. Bureau of Reclamation and the ^P ^ a significant increase in salinity levels in the southern
level rise and its potential unpad «™p CVP contractors. The agencies can combat increasing
Delta could render that water releases of upstream carriage waters, or 2) reduce water
salinity levels in two principal ways- ) options decrease the amount of water available to users
withdrawals from the southern Delta ^th of t^e op ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
farther south, neither ls ^wlarly desirwi, pe ^ ^ d44&5 tQ meet quality standards in the
Operation* Agreemeq. now Reifies lha. fey «dll share moure.
and facilities to meet carriage water needs.
... • - ricina level is the inundation of the pumping plants and water supply
Another possible unpad oi rising w a crisis mj^jt WTy weu crystallize pressure for derisive
systems operated by the Bureau ana tne u ^ configured or for restructuring the water delivery
action aimed at either maintaining the Delta
system, perhaps through a circum-Delta canal.
Wafar omttyWin A rriflin In Fnfnrfl dimnm AflMmfflU
The. «« ^
change, including the key options listed to T e
, , . ^rta;n circumstances to surrender to a more brackish Delta and plan
First, it may be reasonable undercenam ^ opdoQ) xhis would probably lead to a larger extent
to obtain the most benefits from thu ch^?®e ranging from increased wildlife habitat, recreational
of Suisun Marsh-like environment, wim oew" xherelease of carriage flows is one of the principal ways
opportunities, and possibly even commwmiiB^ . ^ ^ mtle wmr which could be dedicated to
in which salt water intrusion is pre»«^ew^°- Him, option 2 would likely require laige additions to
such an increase without affecting faces many barriers: large capital expenditures during a
upstream storage and transport capacity. Ttts opwo ^ dedMj]g) ^ reduction of acceptable sites on which
period in which federal support for water .MTr# (especially from environmental groups) to prevent
to construct large storage facilities, and
new on-stream storage facilities.
anuthera California (option 3) has an obvious implication
Reduced water withdrawal for export » ¦£££ ^ projected contract demand unless new sources
especially for the SWP: the pf<*ject increased, as discussed in the supply section above,
of water can be found or efficiency can be dramaiw
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Table 4. Options for Adjusting Water Quality Management to Climate Change
1) Inaction: This would include plans to derive the maximum benefits from a new salty
marsh/brackish ecosystem.
2) Increase carriage flows: Increasing the releases of upstream water stored by the CVP and SWP.
3) Reduce withdrawals, especially those of the CVP and SWP, in the Southern Delta
4) Enlarge channels and waterways: This would have the effect of increasing Delta flows, as well as
reducing reverse flows during dry periods.
5) Construct an isolated channel: Such a canal would route water from the Sacramento River, around
the Delta periphery, and directly to the export pumps near Tracy. Such a project, the "Peripheral
Canal," was proposed in 1982 and soundly rejected by voters, especially northern Californians.
The various project improvements outlined in the latest update of the state's water plan, especially those
which would improve the transfer of water across the Delta (including dredging of existing channels, channel
enlargement, and new connecting channels) would not directly repel encroaching salt water, but would help
maintain better southern Delta water quality by feeding the southern Delta pumping plants more efficiently.
Thus, it may take some pressure off both carriage water requirements and raw water needs in the major delivery
systems.
The fifth option, construction of an isolated canal to carry water from the Sacramento River directly to
the southern Delta pumping plants, is not likely to be implemented in the near future because k would fall prey
to the same environmental concerns that recently killed the Peripheral Canal proposal. However, if the Delta
were to be threatened with conversion into a saline inland sea, such an alternative might be reconsidered.
The diversity of interests surrounding the Delta suggests that policies responding to climate impacts will
be hotly debated. The large water delivery agencies are reluctant to increase carriage flows or reduce
withdrawals. Options such as the enlargement of Delta channels or construction of an "isolated canal" are
extremely controversial, though the latest state plans for these actions have elicited less criticism than most water
managers expected. The salinity control plan, which should eventually emerge from the Bay-Delta Hearing, will
be central to the choice of future options.
Delta water requirements will continue to be a key response policy issue in California water supply in
the short and long term. A combination of natural Delta degradation and subsidence, sea level rise, and runoff
changes suggested in the larger EPA study would require significant changes in water management over the next
few decades. Currently, however, it appears that most of the policy options favor maintaining the existing system
as long as possible rather than adjusting to climate change.
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CHAPTER 3
CONCLUSIONS: WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE CALIFORNIA STUDY AREA
TKU anaiv.sk describes the key water resource management policies and practices that would be stressed
by climatrTh^rtSe^omSa Se study area The three focuses-water supply/flood control, Delta island
mJnSiM ^d Delta water quality-are related and interactive. For example, changes in supply or flood
SoCSrSfecTthe ability to maintain water quality. Thus, the fall range of agencies and interest groups
for future adjustment.
PROSPECTS FOR POLICY ADJUSTMENT IN WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL
Water development trends in California could be characterized as actually quite predictable. Although
economists have speculated on the emergence of "water markets" and a greater private role in large-scale water
development, the latest manifesto from the state, its 1987 "Future" publication (California Department of Water
Resources, 1987), outlines a plan for somewhat smaller developments that generally move the system farther
along the previous development trajectory marked by public financing and management, and improved physical
facilities. The report offers a set of scaled down physical improvements for increasing firm yield by 1 to 2 maf
over the next two decades. Included in this package are improvements in existing transfer facilities in the Delta,
development of offstream storage at the Los Banos Grandes reservoir, water banking in aquifers (such as the
Kern Water Bank, a large groundwater storage project), and plans for the Los Angeles area to receive more
Colorado River water, thus taking some pressure off of northern California supplies.
In short, expected demand will be met by increasing facilities and new sources or storages, although
future management will probably be more open to increased levels of risk of occasionally failing to meet peak
demand (a variable risk policy). By maintaining a closer relationship between supply and demand (i.e., less
"excess capacity"), the system will continue to be sensitive to climate fluctuations, and managers will have to
improve their fine-tuning of allocation rules. Calls for improved seasonal climate forecasting in the 1987 report
illustrate the perceived need to better anticipate climate shocks.
Flood management in the basin is undergoing a major review by the USACE in light of apparently
increased flood potential. After the 1986 floods, it was suggested that the proposed Auburn Dam was needed
more for flood control than for water supply, and recent discussions have focused on an Auburn Dam built as
a "dry dam" (what is typically called a "detention dam" in flood control planning) used only to hold peak flood
waters and then emptied as soon as downstream conditions permit (SafffflMlltP Beg. March 4,1988). Thus, the
dam would not create a large onstream reservoir. If current flood safety levels are to be maintained in the basin,
some further tightening of operating rules—or additional flood storage—will be needed. Water management in
the area will certainly be affected by the findings of the flood system review now under way.
There is, however, one event in the recent policy history of the area that portends a flexibility in
adjusting to environmental uncertainty; the coordinated operations of the SWP and CVP. Water systems in the
United States have tended to operate independently, each assuring its own firm yield by developing independent
supplies and storage. But the tightening relationship between demand and supply in northern California, and
differences in the capacity of the two systems, yielded a new joint operating policy that could act as a model for
increasing the flexibility of water systems elsewhere and for further adjustment in the regions.
Indeed, the SWP/CVP Coordinated Operations Agreement (COA) represents, in many ways, a public
policy response to climate sensitivity and the creation of a mechanism for absorbing future climate changes as
4-29
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it better distributes the "absorptive capacity" or excess capacity in the system. The chief goal of the COA was
to share responsibility for passing through the water necessary to meet state-imposed Delta water quality criteria
This carriage water requirement has been growing since Decision 1485 (discussed in detail above) mandated that
water operators permit enough water to pass on to the Delta to fight salt water intrusion. The increase has been
due to a greater frequency of dry years in the basin since the mid-1970s, as well as degradation of the Delta's
island-levee system. Chiefly by virtue of its larger excess capacity, the CVP takes up the slack in SWP carriage
water deliveries and thus helps the SWP meet user requests when Delta requirements are high, runoff is low,
or both. Most accounts suggest that the COA has helped the SWP avoid shortages in the past few dry years
(1986-87 was another "critically diy" year in northern California). The COA clearly represents the kind of new,
but simple low-cost, institutional relationships and policy tools that can help resource agencies absorb some
climate change without drastic crisis responses or a rush to develop new physical facilities. Furthermore, the
1987 water plan update suggests that further coordination, perhaps even state management of both systems, is
being considered.
Other than the COA, however, there is little evidence that less traditional adjustments, like the
development of water marketing, will emerge in the near future.
PROSPECTS FOR ADJUSTING DELTA ISLAND LAND USE
The majritppqn™. of the system of Delta islands and levees (or employment of the "strategic inundation"
strategy) in the face of sea level rise will not as easily yield to incremental, operational adjustments as will supply
and flood control. Indeed, Delta maintenance will be a costly policy even without sea level rise or reduced
freshwater flows. In the face of either or both of these future climate trends, though, the public investment to
protect the Delta islands could escalate dramatically. In the DWR's 1982 Delta Levee Investigation, then-DWR
director Ronald Robie estimated "...a complete rehabilitation of the Delta levee system would cost a staggering
$3.4 billion" (California Department of Water Resources, 1982).
The levee system is not in good condition, as evidenced by the 24 levee failures since 1980. The islands
of the Delta, most of which are well below sea level, continue to subside as the Delta's peat soils erode and
decompose. Nevertheless, short-term maintenance of the levee system, although very expensive, is viewed as
quite feasible by most responsible agencies and other interests. There is a widespread attitude-that because of
the Delta's critical importance to California's water supply system and, subsequently, the entire state, its short-
term maintenance is perhaps economically justifiable. In the long-term (i.e., greater than 50 years), however,
maintenanr* of the levees is questioned even by some groups that support their rehabilitation now.
Despite the Legislature's recognition that "...it may not be economically justifiable to maintain all the
Delta's islands...", there is an increasing potential for huge financial commitment to the maintenance of the Delta
jeiapri system, especially in the face of rising sea level. Rising sea level will increase the failure of levees and
promote the intrusion of salt water into the Delta The possible disappearance of a fresh water Delta in the long
run would drastically alter the character of the state's water supply system. Ideas such as the Peripheral fanal
(which reappeared as an "isolated canal" in the state's 1987 water futures assessment, see California Department
of Water Resources, 1987), soundly rejected by the voters in 1982, may not seem farfetched in the face of Delta
inundation.
PROSPECTS FOR WATER QUALITY MAINTENANCE
Any decrease in managed water supplies (or even marked changes in the seasonality of runoff) in the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Basin will further worsen Delta water quality unless the major delivery systems can
provide more carriage water. Right now it appears that regulatoiy water requirements will take precedence over
deliveries to users, though this is by no means assured in the face of cumulative climate change. It may be,
however, that the large body of regulatory policy aimed at protecting water quality-which is not matched in
4-30
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Riebsame
water suoolv--mav win out in future conflict for water that becomes more scarce due to climate change.
However; it is not prudent to speculate on prospects for this issue until the Bay-Delta Hearings end. New
attitudes, policy tools, and institutions may then emerge.
THE NEED FOR INTEGRATED POLICY SOLUTIONS
The oroliferation of interests and institutions focused on parts of what is, essentially, a connected
constellation bf climate-sensitive policy issues in Northern California, suggests that near-future climate change
muld elicit a disjointed policy response. Yet the climate problem could also create new ties between resource
SC^en? coordinated ope rata agreement be»«n the OTP and CVP repr«en«
3 m « adjustment to environmental uncertainty (e.g., variable and likely increasing requirements for
2 Se? to maintain Delta quality, and short-tenn climate fluctuations) that could act as a policy model
to XS to other impacts of cUmate change. Indeed, additional interagency cooperation has been proposed
ta tta S wS^SSming documentTbut no arategy_h> yet emerged to offer an tategntted response
To tto teiSroWems rfSwly, V** 'f1 Del" P™1"00". «»" >* «***'b«le
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REFERENCES
Bowden, M.L., R.W. Kates, PA. Kay, W.E. Riebsame, RA. Warrick, D.L. Johnson, and D. Weiner: 1981, The
Effect of Climate Fluctuations on Human Populations: Two Hypotheses." In Climate and History, ed., T.M.L.
Wigley, M J. Ingram, and G. Farmer, pp. 479-513. Cambridge University Press.
California Department of Water Resources: 1966, California High Water. 1964-1966. Bulletin 69-65. State
Printing Office, Sacramento.
California Department of Water Resources: 1974, California STate Water Project. Volume Ill-Storage Facilities.
State Printing Office, Sacramento.
California Department of Water Resources: 1977, Dry-year operation of the SWP or 1978. Unpublished Memo.
Sacramento, CA.
California Department of Water Resources: 1978, The 1976-77 California Drought: A Review. State Printing
Office, Sacramento, CA.
California Department of Water Resources: 1980, California Flood Management: An Evaluation of Flood
Damage Prevention Programs. Bulletin 199. State Printing Office, Sacramento, CA.
California Department of Water Resources: 1982, Delta Levees Investigation. Bulletin 192-82, the Resources
Agency, Sacramento, CA.
California Department of Water Resources: 1983, The California Water Plan: Projected Use and Availahte
Water Supplies to 2010. Bulletin 160-83. State of California, Sacramento.
California Department of Water Resources: 1985a, Management of the California State Water Project Bulletin
132-85. State of California, Sacramento.
California Department of Water Resources: 1985b, Evaluation of the State Water Project Rule Curve Procedure.
Unpublished Memo. Sacramento, CA.
California Department of Water Resources: 1986, The Floods of February 1986. State Printing Office,
Sacramento, CA.
California Department of Water Resources: 1987a, California Water: Looking to the Future. Bulletin 160-87.
State Printing Office, Sacramento, CA.
California Department of Water Resources: 1987, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Atlas. State of California,
Sacramento.
California Department of Water Resources: 1987b, State Water Project Water Delivery Rule Curve for 1988.
Unpublished Memo. Sacramento, CA.
Cohen, S J.: 1986, "Climatic Change, Population Growth, and Their Effects on Great Lakes Water Supplies."
The Professional Geographer 38:317-323.
Conference Statement Committee: 1988, Statement of the World Conference on the Changing
Toronto. Canada. June 27-30. Atmospheric Environment Service, Toronto, Canada.
4-32
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Davoren, W.T., and J A. Ayres: 1983, "Past and Pending Decisions Controlling San Francisco Bay and Delta."
Water Science Tech.. Vol. 16, pp. 667-676.
Franceschi, R.R. and R.S. Sudman: 1983, "Water project financing: the terms are changing."
(September/October):4-ll.
Glantz, M.H.: 1979, "A Political View of C02." 260:189-190.
. „ ^ n„A I? 7 Qtakhiv 1988. "Water Resources Planning Under Climate Uncertainty."
Hsmchey, J.R, ICE-S^ilbnsAmrriran Conference on Preparing for Climate
Institutes, Inc.
. T - r» o;„H c iisbedeff R. Ruedy, and R. Russell: 1988, "Global Climate Changes
^^'i^dartSS.Sl.e f» space Studies: H*e.-Dimensiona> Model." Jwmrt rf OwMcd
Research 93:9341-9364.
Hamen, J, and S. Lebedeff: 1988, -Global Surface Air Temperatures: Update Through 1987." SMsial
Research Letters 15:323-326.
, , . crn Raoeir. 1987, "The Rapidity of C02-Induced Climatic Change:
Kates, R.W.: 1980, "Climate and Society: Lessons from Recent Events." State JSO>17-»
«r . o w i and M Berberian, eds.: 1985, flimatt IffiPatt SWm Qf til? InttffiCtiWi
«¦ andSom-
Liwrman, D.M.: 1987, "Forecasting the Imp*! of Ciinwte to Food S)*em»: Model Testing and Social linkage."
piratic Change 11:267-285.
, w ,, R nnjJD ffnmr 1°°7 WaftTintheSacramento-SanJoaauinVallev
M^Cr^ke^M^ nt ^ rhanping Climate. Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratoiy, Livermore, CA.
_ . . lQfl7 "Can Level Rise: Predictions and Implications for San Francisco Bay,"
Moffatt and Nichol, Ei^meers. 1987, J>ea Le
prepared for San Francisco BCDC.
National Academy of Science, 1983, Wa^on. DC-. National A«*my Pres..
Nichols. F.H., e. al, 1986, "The Modification of . W 5to ffl.» W-S*
„ . 1QaA Hazard Mitigation Plan. California Governor's Office: Sacramento,
Office of Emergency Services: 1986, nooo n
CA..
the Agricultural Frontier: A Research Strategy. In T.M.L. Wigley, MJ.
Parry, M.L.: 1981, Climate Change an gn^ 319-336. Cambridge University Press.
Ingram, and G. Farmer, eds., CllfllflK wn n»iv«*»
,WT 1988, T\K lmnact of ^mate Variations on Agriculture. Vols. 1 and
Parry, M.L., T.R. Carter, and NX
2. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwar Acaacm
Robie, R.B.: VDS, Utf-Y«r Outlook is Bleak for Sate." JMmJ&ISI (M^ch-W*
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Snow, G.F.: 1976, "State Agriculture is Hard Hit." Western Water (March-April):3.
Sudman, R-S.: 1983a, "Cost sharing: The State Water Project." Western Water (November/December):4-6.
The Sacramento i;Tnion (newspaper): 1988, "Feds ask $600,000 for flood control." 14 January, pp. A1 and A2.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: 1959, Master Manual of Reservoir Regulation: Sacramento River Basin.
California. Sacramento, CA.
UJS. Army Corps of Engineers: 19S6, Reservoir Regulation Manual for Flood Control: Folsom nam and
Reservoir. American River. California Appendix II to the Master Manual. Flood Control Diagram, Revised
1959,1977, and 1987. Sacramento, CA.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: 1982, Engineering and Design: Water Control Management. Engineering
Regulations No. 1110-2-240. UJS. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
UJS. Army Corps of Engineers: 1986, American River Authority and Auburn Dam Committee meeting, August
13, 1986. Unpublished Memo. Mid-Pacific Region, Public Affairs Office, Sacramento, CA.
UJS. Bureau of Reclamation: 1985, Agreement Between the United States of America and the Department r>f
Water Resources of the State of California for Coordinated Operation of the Central Valley Project and the
State Water Project.
White, G.F.: 1988, "Global Warming: Uncertainty and Action." Environment 30(6), editorial page.
Wolman, M.G. and A. Wolman: 1986, Water Supply: Persistent Myths and Recurring Issues. In R.W. Kates and
T. Burton, eds., Geography. Resources, and Environment II. pp. 1-27. University of Chicago Press.
World Meteorological Organization: 1985, Report of the International Conference nn the Assmmmt of the Role
of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated WMONo.
661. Geneva.
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EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE GREAT LAKES*
THE IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS '
by
Daniel K. Ray
Kurt N. Lindland
and
William J. Brah
The Center for the Great Lakes
435 N. Michigan Avenue, Suite 1408
Chicago, U 60611
Contract No. 68-01-7288
-------
CONTENTS
Page
FINDINGS 5-1
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 5-2
CHAPTER 2: METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS 5-3
CHAPTER 3: EXISTING POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS FOR MANAGING
THE GREAT LAKES' ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY 5-5
WATER SUPPLY 5-6
WATER QUALITY 5-7
LAND USE 5-9
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 5-10
CHAPTER 4: DIRECT AND SECONDARY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE ON THE GREAT LAKES BASIN 5-13
CHAPTER 5: THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR GREAT LAKES
POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS
WATER SUPPLY 5-17
WATER QUALITY
LAND USE 5-19
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
CHAPTER 6: ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ^-22
REFERENCES
ii
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Ray
FINDINGS1
Global climate change could have significant effects on the Great Lakes. According to studies sponsored
bv the U5 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), these impacts would include increasing temperatures,
reduced runoff, declines in lake levels, and declines in snow and ice cover.
Natural and economic resources of the Great Lakes basin, especially those associated with the Lakes,
would £«eStST«%red fee th. EPA indicate fl-1-tor ,uality in 0» may decltae Lake
totlolswould be expose by falling waterKetones, for«tt, and agriculture would be altered. Costs of
^ electric pLer ami for navigation on the late would increase. Tourism would change.
The Center for the Great Lakes found that changes in Great Lakes policies and institutions would be
needed to St to these impacts. The International Joint Commission's regulaUons controlhng outflows from
Sefsiperlofaid Ontario would need to be updated Water supply planning effortspresently underway under
^GreaflSes Ctoter could, if ° ^ t0
surface waters. Controlling impacts to groundwa
,, , , - Taw Water Quality Agreement would need to be reevaluated, and new
disc .teSTa^d Sensi™ new treatment work, would be retired to maintain w««r quality. Non-pobt
source impacts could be very difficult to contro.
»* -,r ft
ESTw!,W i^dUM to coordinate addons to climate change on private lands.
, o«i lanH resources can be managed successfully, the region's abundant water
If these impacts to wat" advantage in attracting economic development. However, significant
supplies could provide a competmw "g f generatjoni agriculture, forest products, tourism, and
changes would occur in many key sec^s, of coordinating public policies which adapt to these changes are
navigation. Strong regional uisMutM^«P^ d forest planning can help prepare for climate
found only in the forest products sector, wnere sun*
change's effects.
. been funded wholly or partly by the US. Environmental
'Although the information in thwrep^J® not necessarily reflect the Agency's views, and no
Protection Agency under Contrart No. 68-0W«°>
official endorsement should be inferred
5-1
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Ray
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
A consensus is emerging among world scientists that increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (C02),
methane, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's), plus other "greenhouse" gases in the earth's
atmosphere could change world climate. In preindustrial times, C02 was 280 ppm; today, the count stands at
340 ppm. Burning of fossil fuels, increased agriculture, deforestation, and the introduction of CFC's have
increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By 2060, if emission trends remain constant,
the cumulative impact on climate would be equivalent to doubling C02 concentrations.
Most models of the earth's atmosphere predict increases in world temperature under higher C02
concentrations -- from 1.5'C to 4.5°C. Mean global temperatures have increased about .5°C over the last
century ~ within the range predicted if the greenhouse effect is on the rise. It is too soon to tell if unusual
global wanning has begun because of the natural variability of climate and because any excess greenhouse
warming would be masked for some time by the enormous absorbing capacity of the oceans.
How might these changes influence the Great Lakes, the largest body of freshwater in the world? The
Lakes hold 18 percent of the planet's surface freshwater. They are fed by the runoff from over 500,000 square
kilometers of forests and farmlands. Approximately 37 million residents find their home on the Lakes' 16,000-
kilometer-long coastline. The basin is the industrial center of North America -- accounting for 37 percent of
the value added in U.S. manufacturing and half of Ontario's industrial production. The basin's residents and
industries depend on the Lakes for water supplies, recreation, and navigation. The region's governments and
United States and Canadian agencies have invested billions of dollars in conserving and developing the Lakes'
resources through the control of pollution, the development of water supplies, the purchase of park lands,
construction of harbors and navigation channels, and other actions. How will global climate change affect the
basin's industries and residents and the Lakes upon which they depend?
Although effects are far from clear, scientists have begun to identify some potential regional impacts from
global climate change. In the Great Lakes basin, these impacts could include an increase in average
temperatures, an increase in evapotranspiration, a decline in ice cover, and related reductions in lake levels and
stream flows. If these impacts occur, profound changes in the region's environment and economy would follow.
Water supplies for municipalities, industry, and agriculture could be reduced, and the quality of water in the
Lakes and their tributaries could decline. Fisheries and recreational opportunities would be altered. Resource
industries like agriculture and forestry that sustain rural economies could be transformed. Commercial
navigation through the ports and navigation channels which served the Lakes could be limited by low water
levels.
For managers and users of the Great Lakes, a question arises: Could the Great Lakes' community adapt
to these potential global climate change impacts on the basin? This study looks at that process of
and examines the strengths and weaknesses of the Great Lakes regjion in responding to global warming. It is
one of a series of global climate change regional impact studies commissioned by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) at the request of Congress.
The report describes the methods used in the study. It reviews today's policies and institutions for
managing these Great Lakes resources. The report then summarizes other research to describe how the Great
Lakes environment and economy could be affected by global climate change. It suggests how these policies and
institutions might respond to climate change in the regioa Finally, the report recommends actions to assist in
developing a regional response to potential climate alterations.
5-2
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Ray
CHAPTER 2
METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS
This study began with a description of the present policy and institutional framework for manaeine fo..r
attributes of the Great Lakes region -- water supply, water quality, land use, and the economy. The description
- based on studies by The Center and others -- is summarized in Chapter 3 of this report. "
The Center then reviewed U.S. and Canadian studies of global warming. Climate chanee scenario
provided by the EPA formed the basis for analysis of the potential impacts of climate change Researchers on
global climate change's regional impacts have used these scenarios as inputs to their models These reeionf
investigations, funded by the EPA and Environment Canada, generally use "off-the-shelf models of th
relationship between climate and their analytic area. For example, the Great Lakes Environmental Research
Lab has used its hydrologic model of the Great Lakes to study possible impacts of climate change on lake Ievelf
Chapter 4 of this report recaps investigations of the effects of climate change on the Great Lakes' environm t
and economy. In some cases, these results were augmented by inferences drawn bv Th* Pontor u, a
related impacts reported by other researchers. e on
With these summaries in hand, The Center brought together policy experts, community leaders and
business people from around the region to examine these potential impacts of climate change Participants wp
selected based on their expertise with regional policy and institutions. Prior to the meeting, The Center maHed
each participant a copy of The Center's summary documents and a questionnaire to assist in their oreosffatio
for the workshop. Seventeen study participants, listed in Table 1, met in Chicago on May 5,1988 and discussed
the implications of global climate change for the region. Workshop participants were asked to identify the Great
Lakes management policies and institutions most affected by climate change, to forecast how these Dolirie
would be affected by climate change, and to analyze the ability of Great Lakes' institutions to develop and carrv
out policy modifications that respond to climate change. We also asked workshop participants to recommend
appropriate steps to prepare Great Lakes policies and institutions for the potential of climate rhangf Th
consensus of their comments is summarized in Chapters 5 and 6 of this report. ' e
There are many assumptions and uncertainties which influence this study. The uncertainty is not with the
trend in increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, but with the impact of this change on the Great Lakes
Results from climate models are very tentative estimates of future climate for a specific area Forecasts of
impacts on specific resource components are hampered by the imprecision of the climate models, their limited
ability to consider interactions between resource categories or changes in resource models through time, and
other factors. This variability is compounded in a survey such as this, to which seventeen participants brinstheir
own model of how Great Lakes policy is made and implemented. At the least, the results identify impacts of
climate change most sensitive to policy choices made in the region, and suggest some of the region's strengths
and weaknesses as it begins to address climate change.
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Ray
Table 1. Participants In the Center For the Great Lakes' Workshop on Climate
Change In the Great Lakes Basin
Mr. Peter McAvoy
3009 N. Frederick Ave.
Milwaukee, WI 53211
Don Parsons
International Joint Commission
2001 S. Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20440
Peter Timmerman
International Federation of
Institutes for Advanced Study
39 Spadina Road
Toronto, ON M5R2S9
Fred Brown
Great Lakes United
488 W. Ashby Road
Route 5
Midland, MI 48640
Joel Smith
U.S. EPA
Office of Policy
Planning and Evaluation
401 M. St., S.W.
Washington, DC 20460
Frank Quinn
Great Lakes Environmental
Research Laboratory
2205 Commonwealth
Ann Arbor, MI 48105
Randy Wade
Dept. of Development
123 W. Washington Ave.
P.O. Box 7970
Madison, WI 53707
Madelyn F. Webb
Center For The Great Lakes
39 Spadina Road
Toronto, ON M5R 2S9
Dave Rockwell
U.S. EPA/GLNP0
230 S. Dearborn
Chicago, IL 60604
Tom Martin
State of Michigan
Office of the Great Lakes
Box 30028
Lansing, MI 48909
Larry Fink
SAIC
8400 Westpark Drive
McLean, VA 22102
Henry Henderson
City of Chicago
Dept. of Law
180 N. LaSalle Street
Suite 704
Chicago, ILL 60601
Tom Brown
Regional Director
Dept. of Env.Conservation
State Office Building
317 Washington Street
Watertown, NY 13601
Jean Piette, Director
Direction des relations
intergouvernementales Minist.
de 1' environnement
3900, rue Marly
6e etage,
Sainte-Foy, PQ, Canada G1X 4E4
William J. Brah
Center for The Great Lakes
435 N. Michigan Avenue
Chicago, IL 60611
Dan Ray
Center for The Great Lakes
435 N. Michigan Avenue
Chicago, IL 60611
5-4
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Ray
CHAPTER 3
EXISTING POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS
FOR MANAGING THE GREAT LAKES' ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY
The policy and institutional framework for management of the Great Lakes reflects the scale and
racsytt---- <* «£•—m*- **¦
Several broad trends unify these organizations' development and implementation of policies in the region,
several oroaa vcosvstem concept" of Great Lakes management -- the recognition of the
The first of these "J*1 Tjw basin. A growing sense of regionalism, characterized by the
uiterrelatedness of reso Governors and the increase in coordination between the Lakes' states
formation of .he Comdrf Great!0A> ^ has increased the trend
and provinces, reflects this iesources to deal with common problems previously handled by
S3 3STK2S -J"-* * comply of the resource .3
economic challenges confronting them grows (Donahue, 1987).
^ „ r
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Ray
WATER SUPPLY
Water has been abundant in the Great Lakes, so the framework for managing water supplies in the basin
is still developing. The earliest efforts to manage water supplies were conducted by the IJC and focused on
controlling lake levels to protect municipal supplies, maintain navigation, and promote hydroelectric
development. Now a new effort, initiated by the states and provinces, is regulating consumptive uses of the
Lakes' water and leading toward development of a coordinated water supply management program for the
Lakes. These efforts are driven by increasing water use in the basin and by concerns that the region could be
harmed by diversion of Great Lakes waters to users outside the basin. Management of surface and ground
waters is not well coordinated.
Water levels in the Great Lakes fluctuate with annual and seasonal variations in rainfall, runoff, and
precipitation. The difference between extreme high and low annual water levels is about 2 meters. Physical
works for managing Great Lakes water levels are not extensive. Regulation of outflows through locks at the
Saint Mary's and St. Lawrence Rivers has been designed to balance the interest of those affected. For example,
the present plan regulating outflows from Lake Ontario to the St. Lawrence River incorporates criteria reflecting
the needs to maintain shipping in Quebec and the St. Lawrence Seaway, minimize spring flooding in the St.
Lawrence Valley, mavimiyn dependable flows for hydropower production, and reduce damage to Lake Ontario
shoreline landowners from extremes in lake levels (International Joint Commission, 1973). The regulations take
into account existing diversions into the basin at Long Lake and Ogoki and out of the basin at Chicago and the
Welland Canal, which only affect lake levels by three to four inches (Sea Grant Institute, 1988). While several
large-scale schemes to divert Great Lakes' water to lower lake levels for erosion control or to serve users in
other basins have been proposed, none has received substantial support.
Surface waters supply 95 percent of the basin's water needs. The remaining supplies come from
groundwater. Present consumptive water use in the basin, estimated at 2900 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 5600
cfs, is projected to increase 50 to 96 percent through the year 2000 (Solley et al., 1983; International Joint
Commission, 1985) Almost 90 percent of the water consumption in the basin occurs in the U.S. Canadian
water d»manrf.« are increasing slowly. In the year 2000-total water consumption is estimated to increase to 9,980
cfs, of which 85 percent will be consumed by the U.S. (Sea Grant Institute, 1988).
Water supply policy in the Great Lakes has been influenced by four primary institutions: the Boundary
Waters Treaty of 1909, federal water laws, state and provincial water law, including the Great Lakes Charter,
and the municipalities and industries who develop facilities for consumptive use of water. The Boundary Waters
Treaty between the United States and Canada regulates lake levels and diversions in the waters of the U .S.-
Canada border (Cohen, 1982). The treaty granted the International Joint Commission the power to approve or
disapprove any diversion or use of boundary waters which would affect the level and flow of the boundary waters
(Fairley, 1982). In reviewing applications which may affect water levels and flows, the UC is guided by the
following priorities:
1. Uses for domestic and sanitary purposes,
2. Uses for navigation, including canal service,
3. Uses for power and for irrigation purposes.
The Commission has the authority to authorize a diversion plan conditional upon remedial or nrotective
measures being constructed (Sugarman, 1986).
Some elements of the 80-year-old treaty limit its value in addressing contemporary water manapmrnt
problems. Its priorities for water allocation, for example, do not consider concerns such as environmental
protection or the needs of recreation and water-using industries which have developed in the last few decades
In addition, the IJC lacks authority to regulate small-scale diversions and consumptive uses which are
individually minor but cumulatively significant (Fairley, 1982) and may not address Lake Michigan or other
tributaries which are not boundary waters. The UC cannot act independently to resolve water mt disputes
Implementation of its decisions depends upon the consent of both the U.S. and Panaris
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U S federal water law also influences the regulation of lake levels and dxveraom on the Great Lakes A
flear IIS national water policy has not been defined by the Congress. Instead, a small body of case law guides
fedM^ite , orinciole of equitable apportionment of interstate waters amongst the
toons, the "T,i^iInX^toDS-eourtthawteUteWr
bordering stales. L,l.gaUon m ^ v M.wfal rtch may only be regulated by states in an
is an article of mterstate y state statutes banning the export of water to promote in-state
evenhanded way (QpLSLELEaSB•>^ state could not also demonstrate that the sale of water
P -v* - "*"""
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2. Reduce nuisance algae conditions in Lakes Ontario and Erie, and restore year-round aerobic conditions
in the bottom waters of the central basin of Lake Erie.
3. Virtually eliminate the discharge of toxic substances to the Lakes.
The GLWQA takes an ecosystem approach in setting water quality standards for the Great Lakes. For example,
water quality plans being prepared under the agreement for each Lake and for 42 persistently polluted nearshore
"Areas of Concern" recognize that achieving the agreement's goals depends on maintaining a chemical, physical,
and biological equilibrium in the Lakes.
For nutrient control, the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement uses the concept of mass balance -- the
total amount of pollutant introduced to each lake ~ to set water quality standards and recommend pollution
controls. Because the treaty limits nutrient discharge based on the concentration of phosphorous in municipal
wastewater, the U.S., with its larger population and greater volume of sewage effluent, is allowed a greater
proportion of nutrient loading to the Lakes than Canada. For example, U.S. phosphorous discharges to Lake
Erie are almost eight times those of Canada. The mass balance approach is not used to set water quality
standards for toxics. Instead, the parties to the agreement promise to abate discharges of tone chemicals from
point sources, inventory progress in reducing point source discharges to the Lakes, and meet specific objectives
for a variety of pollutants (The Center for The Great Lakes, 1987).
Under the GLWQA, the IJC is responsible for advising on water quality issues and reporting to the states
and provinces on progress toward the achievement of the objectives in the agreement (GLWQA, 1978, 1987).
While their advising and reporting plans for the Lakes provide guidance for state, provincial, and federal
agencies (Cohen, 1982; Fairley, 1982), the IJC lacks authority to enforce its judgments. The slow pace of
development of Remedial Action Plans is an example of the limits of the IJC's authority.
National, state or provincial, and local institutions implement the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement
and meet other water quality goals of their jurisdictions. These organizations typically address at least four
water quality issues: point discharges, dredging, nonpoint source discharges, and areal deposition of pollutants.
The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement is recognized in the U.S. Clean Water Act (CWA), which
establishes a Great Lakes National Program Office in the U.S. EPA and charges it with the responsibility for
meeting UJS. commitments under the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement.
In the United States, industrial and municipal wastewater discharges are regulated under the Clean Water
Act (CWA). The CWA requires dischargers to obtain permits limiting the constituents and amounts of their
wastes. The UJS. EPA approves each state's system for issuing National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System
(NPDES) permits. The discharge of nutrients and toxic pollutants is regulated under the same effluent
limitations in the Act. In Canada, the Canada Water Act provides for controls on nutrient discharge, while
Ontario's provincial Municipal and Industrial Strategy for Abatement program will set standards for toxic
pollutants.
In response to these water quality requirements, municipalities, special districts, and industries have
upgraded, constructed, and operate extensive wastewater treatment facilities. Over $6.8 billion has been spent
by state, provincial, and federal governments to improve municipal wastewater treatment since 1971. Cities and
industries have spent a similar amount (Keating, 1987). As a result, industrial and municipal discharges of
nutrients to the Lakes have been substantially reduced and approach the targets established in the GLWQA.
The elimination of toxic chemical discharges, on the other hand, continues to elude industrial and municipal
discharge regulators. A new clean water program, focused on eliminating toxic chemical pollution in nearshore
"Areas of Concern," is now being prepared to address the problem. Implementation of cleanup plans for these
areas will cost billions of dollars.
Dredging in many Great Lakes harbors and navigation channels creates water quality problems because
the bottom sediments are contaminated by toxic chemicals. Water quality regulations, implemented by national
and provincial or state agencies, require special dredging and spoils disposal techniques. Where dredging is
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permitted, these requirements raise harbor maintenance costs. In some harbors, sediments are so polluted that
dredging is forbidden, and navigation uses have been harmed.
Nonpoint source pollution, including runoff of fertilizers and pesticides from farmlands, soil erosion, and
the discharge of urban stormwater, has received less attention in Great Lakes water quality management. In the
U.S., regional governments and states have developed plans for nonpoint source discharge control under Section
208 of the Clean Water Act. The plans recommend management practices for construction, forestry,
agricultural, and other activities which generate discharges. In rural areas, state and federal agriculture
departments and local soil or resource conservation districts implement soil erosion control programs by
providing t»rtinir*i advice and government subsidies for soil conservation activities on private lands. Pesticide
runoff is controlled by federal and state regulations which require that pesticides used must be approved by the
UJS. EPA (Council of Great Lakes Governors, 1986). Nonpoint source controls have not been adequate to meet
GLWQA pollution control targets (National Research Council, 1985).
Work to address aerial deposition of pollutants is just beginning. The GLWQA provides for joint UJS.-
ranaHa programs to identify atmospheric sources of contamination. The UJS. Clean Air Act relies on pollutant-
by-pollutant controls which are not designed to protect water quality against cross-media effects (The Center For
The Great Lakes, 1987). An air toxics data base is currently being compiled by the UJS. EPA to monitor air
emissions of toxic substances.
LAND USE
Most land use controls in the Great Lakes basin are developed and implemented by local governments.
There are few requirements for coordination between jurisdictions or for accommodation of larger than local
concerns. Federal and state land use controls primarily affect public lands such as forests, parks, and lake
bottoms. Key land use policies influenced by climate change are those affecting lake bottoms, coastal zones and
floodplains, vegetation management, including protection of sensitive habitats and prime farm lands, and
community development.
In the U.S., lake bottoms to the ordinary high water line are the property of the states. Under the "public
trust" doctrine, these lands must be managed for commerce, fishing, waterfowling, bathing, swimming, and
boating. All the states regulate the use of lake bottoms to protect public property and assure that any private
are consistent with the trust (Smith, 1982). The states have given little attention to long-term
planning for the Lakes' bottoms.
Hazard reduction policies for Great Lakes' shorelines and floodplains are typical of the region's reliance
on local governments for land use control Only three of the Great Lakes states require development setbacks
along erosion prone shorelines. In addition, the basin is not included in the UJS. coastal barrier system, a
program which denies federal funds for development of designated erosion or flood-prone coastal barriers.
These kinds of policies are only now under consideration in Ontario and the US, Congress. Structural solutions
to coastal erosion problems remain popular with local governments and shoreline landowners. Three states
provide assistance for the construction of coastal erosion control structures. Land use controls in flood-
plains are more common. Six of the Great Lakes states require that their local governments participate in the
National Flood Insurance Program, and most shoreline counties have zoning which regulates development within
the 100-year floodplains of rivers and lakes (The Center for the Great Lakes, 1988).
Maior public land owners in the Great Lakes watersheds include the UJS.DA Forest Service (6 percent of
VS watershed lands), state forestry agencies (6 percent of U& watershed lands), the province of Ontario, and
national, state, and provincial park or habitat presemtron ageiraes (Great Lakes Basin Commission, 1974).
U.S. national forest lands are managed primarily for tober production, recreation, watershed protection, and
fish and wildlife habitat. Long range plans for individual forests are now being developed by the U.S. Forest
Service.
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Most state forest lands are used for timber production and recreation. Parks and other habitat lands in the
basin are managed for outdoor recreation and the protection of critical habitats, especially wetlands and old
growth forests.
About 80 percent of the Great Lakes' U.S. watershed is privately owned. Most land use management
decisions affecting these properties are made by individual landowners, subject to zoning and development
regulations implemented by local governments. All the Great Lakes states and provinces authorize local
governments to develop comprehensive plans for land development and to enact zoning ordinances and other
development controls. Redevelopment of aging urban waterfronts and central cities is an important element of
this land use planning effort (Center for the Great Lakes, 1986). There are few provisions for state review of
local plans to assure that they reflect larger than local goals or are coordinated with neighboring jurisdictions.
For example, only half of the Great Lakes states participate in the national coastal zone management program
or control development of shorelines, wetlands, or other critical areas. Coordinated programs to conserve
farmlands, protect aquifer recharge areas, or control urban sprawl are also lacking. Planning and land use
regulation is weakest in rural areas. No state reviews major conversions of vegetation in rural lands, such as
conversion of forest lands to crop lands, or regulates forest practices in commercial timberlands.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
The Great Lakes economy has been altered in the past decade. Population growth has stopped and basic
industries have declined. Despite these changes, much of the region's economic activity continues to focus on
Lake-related industries ~ water-related manufacturing, electric power generation, tourism, and navigation.
Agriculture and forest products are also key sectors of the region's economy. Most economic development
decisions in the region are made privately. The important state and local government decisions seen as
promoting economic growth are those affecting urban development and industrial siting, public utilities,
transportation, and taxes. A host of recent state and local plans emphasizing training, technology development,
marketing, and promotion of key industries may suggest a new era of government activism in economic
development (SRI International, 1984).
The 1980's haw seen substantial change, but little overall growth in the Great Lakes economy. Substantial
losses in traditional manufacturing jobs haw been equaled by gains in service employment. Population growth
has lagged behind other portions of the United States. Population in the Great Lakes states is projected to
increase by 4 percent by the year 2000, compared to a national increase of 11 percent (Kelly and Anthony,
1988).
Despite the restructuring of the recent years, manufacturing remains a central element of the Great Lakes
economy, providing 23 percent of all payroll employment in 1984 (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1985).
Water-intensive industries, such as primary metals, timber products, food processing, and chemicals are linchpins
in a complicated system of mutually dependent industries in the region (Center for the Great Lakes, 1984).
Industrial water use in the region is relatively efficient. While the region's states produced 42 percent of the
value of Unmanufactured goods in 1982 (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1985), it accounted for only 15
percent of total nonpower self-supplied industrial water use in the U.S., and only 7 percent of the nation's
consumptive nonpower self-supplied industrial water use (Solley et al., 1983). All but two percent of the self
supplied industrial water use in the region's states is drawn from surface sources.
State and local policies aid these industries by planning and zoning lands for industrial use; by providing
infrastructure such as water, wastewater, transportation, and other services; by offering tax and other incentives
for new business development; and by focusing state research and development funds on key industrial sectors.
Great Lakes states lack legislation providing for state review of major industrial siting decisions, leaving these
activities to local zoning controls.
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Electric power is a key element in the region's industrial production and the major user of Great Lakes'
water. In 1984, the Great Lakes states produced 672,000 gigawatts of electric power - 72 percent from coal-
and oil-fired plants, 13 percemt from nuclear power plants, 9 percent from combustion turbine/internal
combustion plants, and 5 percent from hydroplants. Concerns about nuclear safety, the difficulty in Hi«prwjng
of nuclear wastes, concerns about power plants' impacts on the Lakes, and competition from low-cost local coal
have constrained expansion of nuclear generation in the region. Most power consumed in the basin is produced
here. Only New York utilities, such as Niagara Power and the New York Power Authority, purchase more than
10 percent of their power needs from outside sources. These utilities obtain most of their outside power from
Ontario (Jeffers, 1988). Power generation is the major use of industrial water in the region, accounting for 82
percent of self-supplied water use on the UJS. side of the region. Less than 0.03 percent of this water is
consumed, compared to a UJS. average of 2 percent. In 1985, the International Joint Commission forecast that
regional power production would increase 2.5 percent per year to the year 2000 in the UJS., and 2.1 percent per
annum in Canada (International Joint Commission, 1985).
In the UJS., power plant siting is controlled primarily by utilities, by local governments through their
planning and zoning powers, and by state utility commissions. Goals of these programs are to assure adequate
supplies of power, maintain financial stability and profitability of utilities, protect consumers, and avoid land use
conflicts. Neither the UJS. government nor the states review power plant siting decisions to promote a preferred
mix of power sources or to implement an overall strategy of energy generation. Only half the Great Lakes states
have a state-administered power plant siting process that includes environmental impact assessment (Duerksen,
1983).
Forestiy and processing of forest products are major employers in the northern part of the region. In
Wisconsin, for example, timber harvesting, wood-using manufacturing, and related industries provide 283,000
jobs (1985), ship $10.4 billion in wood products (1986), and rank among the top three employers in over half the
state's counties. Key timber species are aspen, pines, balsam fir, spruce, maples, paper birch, and oak. Each
state has a long-range plan which assesses demand and supply for forest products and makes recommendations
for management of state and private forest lands. These plans are coordinated with an equivalent planning
effort iin^rtaypn for national forests by the U.S.DA Forest Service. State and federal timberlands are managed
to match production targets set to their long-range forest resource plans. The impacts of these planning efforts
are reflected in the growing importance of wood products industries. In Wisconsin, for example, an average of
almost $450 million was invested annually in the state's timber industry between 1982 and 1986, accounting for
almost a third of the total new investment in industries in the state (Lindberg. 1988).
Agriculture provided $36 billion in cash receipts in the Great Lakes region in 1983 and is the largest single
industry in the region. Production of major farm commodities — corn* soybeans, and wheat — is very sensitive
to export marketsfwhich produced 46 percent of the region's agricultural income in 1982-83. Surplus production
of these commodities has depressed farm prices. Irrigated apiculture s "ot extensive. lt occupied only 450,000
acres in 1980 (Solley et al., 1983). Agriculture in the region is strongly affected by national farm policies, such
as subsidies to support farm income, assistance fa farm financing, payments to encourage soil and water
conservation, marketing assistance, and technical advice. Economic development plans in the region call for
increasing the diversity of agricultural products produced and promote additional food product processing within
the region.
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to lakewise shipping of coal, iron ore, stone, Canadian grain exports, and iron ore imports from Canada's
Atlantic provinces (Ryan, 1982; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1985).
Public polity for the navigation system is dominated by the two federal governments, who have constructed
and maintained the Seaway, other locks, and most port navigation channels, and provide ice control on the lakes.
While the two nations have considered extended ice control to lengthen the winter shipping season, neither
shows much enthusiasm for deepening of the ports and locks due to the high cost. For example, the cost of
deepening U.S. facilities to accommodate ships drafting 9.7 meters (32 feet) was estimated at $4 billion (UJS.)
in 1968,1.5 times the two federal government's total investment in construction of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence
system between 1946 and 1970 (Great Lakes Basin Commission,' 1975). Most land side facilities at U.S. and
some Canadian ports are constructed by local port authorities, usually units of city government or districts
specially authorized to carry out port functions. The ports are independent of the national governments which
maintain the systems channels and locks, and compete amongst themselves for cargoes and related port
revenues. The difficulty of coordinating policy among so many institutions limits long-range planning and
collaboration in controlling the overall system.
Tourism has been an important component of the region's economy since the 19th century. The recreation
industry includes resorts, restaurants, sport fishing boat operators, marinas, and boat builders. Estimates of
revenue from Great Lakes-based tourism range from $8 billion to $15 billion in 1984. The 63 million people
who visited park lands on the Great Lakes shores in 1983 are estimated to have spent $3.7 million. The Great
Lakes Fishery Commission reported that 54.9 million angler days spent on the Great Lakes in 1981 generated
$766.2 million (The Center for the Great Lakes, 1984). In urban areas, visitors are drawn to new marinas,
parks, and redeveloped waterfronts, an increasingly common feature of Great Lakes city shorelines (Center for
the Great Lakes, 1986). In the region's rural north, like Minnesota's North Shore, most tourism dollars are
spent by residents of the region who travel to enjoy the scenery, the natural amenities of the region, and
opportunities for outdoor family recreation (Knopp and Blank, 1983).
State economic development plans for the region typically identify tourism as an area to be promoted by
investments in recreation facilities, especially marinas, and through state assistance in tourism marketing (Dietzel
and Smith, 1983). Also important are decisions concerning public recreation facilities, including parks and other
public lands, which comprise 20 percent of the Great Lakes UJS. shoreline and 16 percent of the basin's U.S.
area They are important components of the region's tourism infrastructure (Great Lakes Basin Commission,
1975).
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CHAPTER 4
DIRECT AND SECONDARY IMPACTS
OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GREAT LAKES BASIN
How would these Great Lakes natural and economic resources be affected by climate modification? To
answer this question, The Center reviewed other researchers' scenarios of the impact of global climate change
on the Great Lakes basin. These scenarios begin with models of the planet's climate and alter the models to
show the effects of doubling C02 concentrations in the atmosphere. The scenarios which form the bulk of this
section use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model to demonstrate the effect of doubling C02
concentrations to twice that of pre-industrial times. Scenarios based on models by the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL) and Oregon State University (OSU) are also reported where they differ from
the GISS projections. Where information based on another model is used to illustrate the perceived range of
scenarios, the scenario used is indicated in the text.
The scenarios summarized here are the results of others' research, funded by the EPA and Environment
Canada In some cases, inferences drawn by The Center have been added, based on related impacts described
by the researchers.
In th»re scenarios, the average annual temperature in the Great Lakes states would increase between 0.9
and 1.2°C by 2010 and 4.3 and 4.7°C by 2055 (Under and Inglis, 1989). Winter temperatures would be about
5°C degrees warmer (GISS 4.2 to 4.7°; GFDL 6 to 7°), and summer temperatures about 3 to 7°C warmer.
Average daily precipitation would increase 0.05 mm to 0.2 mm. The three scenarios vary in thfir
expectations for seasonal precipitation. GFDL, for example, identifies a 0.5 mm per day decline in summer,
while the OSU model shows no change and the GISS scenario identifies a 0.4 mm per day summertime increase.
Because precipitation over the lakes depends on the teat storage capacity of each lake, rainfall and snowfall in
the basin would vary. Lake Superior precipitation may increase up to 18 percent. Lake Michigan-Huron would
remain relatively constant, with a change from +2 to -5 percent Precipitation over Lakes Erie and Ontario
would decline 7 percent.
With global warming, the duration of the Lakes* ice cycle would be expected to be about 5 to 12-1/2 weeks
shorter for Lake Superior and about 6 to 10 weeks shorter for Lake Erie. Ice cover would begin to deriw
significantly between 2011 and 2040, but ice would still form in mid-lake areas some winters (Assel, Volume A).
Mean winter snowfall would decrease 20-80 percent, with the greatest change north of the tower Great Lakes.
The length of the snow cover season is expected to decrease by 2 to 10 weeks (The DPA Group Inc. 1986). On
the Superior basin, the average snow-pack storage would be reduced by more than half; on other basons to the
south, the snowpack would be almost entirety absent, resulting in reduced moisture storage in soil and
groundwater (Croley and Hartmann, Volume A).
Declines in runoff would range from 1.7 percent over the Superior basin to -42.5 percent over the St. Clair
basin. Runoff peaks slightfy earlier under the 2XC02 climate. Lake evaporation would increase from 97 to 221
mm/yr, which exceeds the drop in projected runoff to all the Great Lakes (Croley and Hartmann, Volume A).
As a result of these changes, water levels in the Great Lakes and stream flows through the connecting
channels would decline. The scenario basedon the GISS model prqectr a^^in levels of Lake Superiorly
0.4 meters, of Lakes Michigan and Huron by 13 meters, and of Lake Erie by 1.1 meters. The GFDL modd
scenario projects larger declines, with reductions in Lakes Michigan and Huron of up to 2*5 meters, and
Erie of 1.9 meters. Projections based on the OSU model show lake level declines of 0.5 meters in Lake
Superior, 1.0 meters in Lakes Michigan and Huron, and 0.8 meters in Lake Erie.
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These changes would degrade Great Lakes water quality. Eutrophication would be enhanced by the
increase in temperature. Oxygen levels in the warmer lakes would decline, especially in the Lakes' depths where
the period of thermal stratification may be extended. The annual turnover in the Lakes' waters might not occur,
adding to the depletion of oxygen in deep waters. Lower water volumes would increase concentrations of both
nutrients and toxic chemicals, further compromising water quality. Water quality deterioration would be greatest
in west and central Lake Erie and other shallow basins where oxygen depletion may be exacerbated (The DPA
Group Inc., 1986). The nonpoint discharge of nutrients and toxic chemicals may increase with runoff from new
farming and urban expansion in the northern latitudes carrying fertilizers and pesticides, and dredging to restore
depths in navigation channels resuspending contaminated sediments. Aerial deposition of pollutants may also
increase if fossil fuels are burned to meet rising power demands.
Surprisingly, fisheries may benefit because the warmer waters would increase overall biological
productivity. A large increase in thermal habitat for coldwater fish would be likely unless the basin was too
shallow to contain cold oxygenated water in the summer (e.g., central and western Lake Erie). For most regions
and most fishes, habitat and productivity would increase. Increases in warmwater habitats would favor range
extensions of native and exotic warmwater fishes. Surprises involving loss of important stocks as well as
surprises from intensified species interactions are expected from new and exotic species. Brook trout would
decline with the increasing water temperatures and declining flows in streams. Where ice cover is not present,
whitefish and other cold- water fish like lake trout may decline. The loss of the ice cover may also reduce the
abundance of microorganisms adapted to the protection of winter ice, affecting the fish which prey on them.
(Magnuson and Regier, Volume E; Assel, Volume A).
The lower lake levels would also expose new shoreline areas and expand beaches. Over 65 percent of U.S.
Great Lakes wetlands could be affected by the lower lake levels. While the wider beaches may reduce shoreline
erosion in some places, in others the loss of ice cover which protects shorelines from high-energy winter storms
might increase shoreline retreat (Manny, 1984; Croley and Hartmann, Volume A; Assel, Volume A).
Forests and farmlands would also be modified. Tree growth would decline because of lost soil moisture.
Under dry soil conditions, forests may change from commercially valuable northern hardwood-oak forests to less
valuable oak forests with red maple. Forests may be converted to open woodlands, savannas, or grasslands with
small scattered trees on drier sites. A significant change in forests may become apparent in 30 to 60 years
(Botkin, Volume D)2.
Agriculture would also be affected by the projected average 4-6 degree growing season temperature
increase and a slight increase in precipitation. Crop yields could increase in the north (e.g., Duluth) owing to
warmer conditions and a longer frost-free growing season. In the southern Great Lakes region, however, plants'
yield may fall since the increase in temperature causes a decrease in the duration of crop growth cycle. New
crops varieties could be required to adapt to these changes. In the southern Great Lake states alternative crops,
such as cotton which continues its growing cycle through the whole season, may be considered. Growing two
crops within one season maybe possible on good soils (Rosenzweig, Volume C; Ritchie et al., Volume C). The
need for irrigation is uncertain. Scenarios based on the GFDL model project that water requirements would
increase about 90 percent, while those based on the GISS model project a decrease averaging about 30 percent.
Where the use of irrigation and chemical fertilizers expands, demands on aquifers and streams will increase. In
the north, drainage projects and deforestation to add new cropland would also affect ground and surface water
(Rosenzweig, Volume C; Ritchie et al., Volume C).
Overall, a 1 to 2 percent increase in agricultural acreage in the Great Lakes and Corn Belt states is
projected, compared to a projected decline in farm acreage in Appalachia, the Mississippi Delta, and southern
2Some authorities have speculated that an increase in C02 will increase total forest productivity because
increasing C02 increases growth rate of individual trees. But recent studies suggest that the effects of climatic
change are very strong. Based on past modeling experience, the climatic effects would more than compensate
for any C02 enhancement effect (Botkin, Volume D).
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Great Plains. This northward shift in agricultural production is due to relative advantages of the Great Lakes
basin in crop yields and water demand (Adams and McCarl, Volume C).
Other economic sectors would also be affected by climate change. Rising temperatures would increase
annual energy use and generating capacity requirements for utilities serving southern portions of the basin where
air conditioning and other summer seasonal loads are relatively high. Meeting this new demand with present
technology would require an increase of 0.7 gigawatts (GW) to 63 GW in generating capacity by 2010, an
increase of up to 8.4 percent, with cumulative capital costs estimated between $13 and $4.2 billion. New
capacity requirements by 2055 would be Hi! percent to 14.2 percent higher than the increase anticipated without
climate change. Most of this increase would occur in peaking capacity. The increased annual cost of
constructing and operating the additional generating capacity is estimated at $5-10 billion. New technology, such
as superconductivity, or changes in costs of power purchases from outside the region could reduce the amount
and cost of new generation capacity required. At the same time, lower lake levels will reduce generation from
inexpensive and nonpolluting hydropower. A switch to alternative power sources, such as fossil fuel or nuclear
power facilities, would consume additional lake water for cooling, lowering lake levels still further. If the
demand for use of coal in power plants increases, demands on shipping will grow. Power production costs
would reflect rising costs of navigation (The DPA Group Inc., 1986; Croley and Hartmann, Volume A; Linder
and Inglis, Volume H).
Navigation, another important sector of the economy, would be harmed by lower lake levels. Average
navigation costs could increase by 5 to 15 or even 30 percent owing to lower vessel loads, traffic backups at the
Welland ranal and Sault St. Marie, and the high cost of dredging harbor and channel sediments contaminated
with toxic rtyrWrak- For example, a 1.5-foot water level reduction in Lake Superior would decrease cargo
capacity by 5 percent, increase transportation costs by 6 percent, and require an additional 16 days to transport
cargo. In Lake Erie a 3.2-foot drop in lake level would decrease cargo capacity by 14 percent, increase
transportation costs by 14 percent, and require 50 additional days to transport cargo. The variability in annual
navigation costs could increase dramatically because of the changes in lake levels. As a result of lower water
levels, the trend toward larger, more cost-effective vessels would stop. Increased shipping costs will directly
affect industries that depend on Great Lakes navigation to transport their products. Reduced ice cover and a
longer shipping season may partially offset some of these effects. An 11-month shipping season may be possible
on lower lakes, and a 10-month shipping season may be possible on Lake Superior. Because shippers could take
advantage of the longer navigation season to spread their shipments more evenly throughout the year, the overall
capacity of the navigation system to move cargo may not decline (Keith et al., Volume H; Marchand et aL,
1988).
riimato change would also alter tourism along the Lakes. The longer summer season would offer greater
opportunities for ramping and park use. However, the decline in water levels and stream flows and reduced
water quality could harm water-related recreation, compromising fishing, water skiing, and other activities in
shallow Great Lakes' bays and basins, and in tributaries to the Lakes. Maintenance problems in marinas and
recreational boating channels will increase. Where sediments are contaminated, marinas will face very high costs
for dredging and spoils disposal. Property values of cottages along rivers and lakes could decline with reductions
in water levels or water quality. The shorter winter will harm winter recreation. For example, decreased snow
and ice cover will hurt the ski industry and ice fishing around the Lakes. (The DPA Group Inc., 1986; Croley
and Hartmann, Volume A).
Many observers saw potential foretastes of climate change's effects in the impact of 1988's drought and
record heat. By July 1988, hot, dry weather throughout the Great Lakes basin reduced Great Lakes' levels by
0.5 to 0.7 meters from their record highs in 1986. Stream flows in the St Lawrence River and Great i
tributaries declined dramatically. Municipal water demand nearly doubled in the hot weather, and some
rrnnmnnitipg Were forced to develop additional water supplies, frequently using Great Lakes water to replace
depleted streams, reservoirs, or aquifers. Declining stream flows and increasing water temperatures made
compliance with water quality standards difficult, forcing cutbacks in production at a few factories and power
plants Trout and salmon fisheries suffered from the effects of high temperatures and low flows in spawning
streams. Waterfowl reproduction fell in parched wetlands. *
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Agricultural production in the region plummeted, as spring plantings withered in the heat. Electric power
demands set new records in response to heavy use of air conditioners. Declines in stream flows reduced
hydroelectric production in Quebec, Ontario, and New York by 5 to 15 percent. Great Lakes shippers were
forced to lighten their loads by 4000 tons per trip in response to lower lake levels, reducing the efficiency of
large freighters by almost 7 percent. While record low levels in the Mississippi River resulted in the rerouting
of some U.S. cargoes through Great Lakes ports, Canadian grain exports plunged with declining farm output
on the prairies. Tourism at some Great Lakes beaches fell as recreationists stayed indoors out of the heat.
Marina owners scrambled to dredge boat slips and launching ramps to maintain depths adequate for recreational
boaters (Center for the Great Lakes, 1988; Anon., 1988).
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CHAPTERS
THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR
GREAT LAKES POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS
rhw* in the Great Lakes' environment and economy would require modifications in the
These changes m resources ^ the region's economy. These policy alterations would be difficult
management of ^er »^la^re^rcBaMTOr«. ^ ^ ^
for exMmg tm tit TO lo develop md ^ ^ ^ leDd „
10 dtaat. modification, cmtul planning and management will b. needed to protect the
high quality Lakes' environment with which the basm s economy is linked.
WATER SUPPLY
The effects of climate change would increase pressures on water supply management in the Great Lakes
basin. Present efforts to improve water supply management in the basin can offer a framework for managing
climate change impacts on the Lakes' water supplies, but only if the commitment to coordinated basin
management is implemented.
At a fundamental level, climate change would require alteration of the lake level regulations at Lake
Superior and Lake Ontario. The need for these changes is recognized in the Great Lakes Environmental
Research Laboratory's study of climate change impacts on lake levels, which found that present regulations
would not maintain flows in the St. Mary's and St. Lawrence River (Croley and Hartman, Volume A).
Modification of these levels could be undertaken by the IJC and the two federal governments. Alterations might
be limited to variation in the present lake level control regime, or could require modification of existing physical
controls at the two Lakes' outlets. The absence of contemporary concerns, such as environmental protection,
from the priorities of the Boundary Waters Treaty would increase the IJC's difficulty in adopting new regulations
that balanced the needs of downstream water users, shippers, and shoreline land owners. For example, strict
application of the treaty's present priorities in reregulating the outflow from Lake Ontario to the St Lawrence
River might not address the needs for fresh water outflows to protect St. Lawrence River fisheries from the
adverse effects of salt water intrusion, or the goals of Lake Ontario recreational marina operators for water
depths adequate to maintain their facilities.
The region's new policies on regulating consumptive water use and diversion can be helpful in reacting to
climate rhan£*, especially if the states ami provinces continue to increase public control of large water
appropriations. As climate change makes water scarcer, the move away from riparian rights and towards a
system of appropriation in managing the basin's water supplies is likely to grow. Parallel development of
groundwater law will also be required if irrigation demands increase or aquifers are depleted. Otherwise
groundwater users will increase diversions from the Lakes and other surface supplies to relieve overdrafted
aquifers.
Development of the coordinated basin-wide water management program called for in the Great Lakes
Charter would provide a framework for the Great Lakes states and provinces to make decisions about
reallocation of water supplies reduced by climate change. These reductions in supplies, coupled with increases
in consumptive use and growth in Canada's relative proportion of Great Lakes water use, may increase conflicts
over water allocation. Coordination of the states* and provinces* systems for regulating water appropriations
— .1. in th» nharter could help prepare for this increased competition for water sunnlio*
Stronger regional institutions win JMWC IIIAI |/ivruivf*m i -r|mrvi__ |n||i ^
The Charter's basinwide management program, coupled with the UC's abilityto revdev^amd6cn^rf^tiH, us,a™ •
diversions from the basin, can provide a framework for water allocation decisions. If both fectari ® Water
consent, the UC could exercise its authority to review diversions to implement the states' and provta^*1"8
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management program, providing for shared state-provincial-federal decisionmaking about Great Lakes basin
water supplies.
If the states and provinces are not able to develop an effective management program endorsed by the
federal governments, water allocation decisions affected by climate change will be less predictable and are less
likely to reflect interests of the region. Policies and institutions for allocating water between jurisdictions within
the basin, or between the basin and out of basin users, would come under stress. Pressures could grow for out
of basin diversions, such as an increase in the Chicago diversion to relieve low flows in the Mississippi River.
A long period of negotiation through the IJC, or for Lake Michigan diversions, litigation among Canada, the
states and other interests in UJS. federal courts, could be required to resolve these disputes. In the UJS., the
lack of a well-described national water policy and the case by case application of the rule of equitable
apportionment offer little guidance about how these issues might be resolved by the courts. Federal court
adjudication of competing state claims to Great Lakes waters would need to consider climate change impacts
to avoid overestimates of the supply available. Efforts to bar water exports of Great Lakes water needed for
commerce in other regions maybe struck down. Where these water reallocation issues affected navigation, such
as barge transportation on the Mississippi River, the Congress might be able to impose a settlement. Decisions
made in these international or federal forums may not reflect regional interests as fully as would those made by
state and provincial officials.
Water use in the basin is relatively efficient in comparison to other areas in North America. Present
policies encouraging additional conservation efforts can enhance this advantage. The demands of increased
population, rising power production, and declining groundwater levels could increase water consumption from
the Lakes beyond the level presently anticipated. Policies encouraging water conservation could be used to
reduce the substantial expenditures required to develop water supply systems to accommodate this growth and
to reconstruct existing systems ill suited to lower lake levels. Pressure on water supplies could also be
dampened by land use planning or economic management which discouraged expansion of water using industries
or land use patterns. For example, power generation by fossil-fueled power plants consumes less water than
generation of an equivalent amount of power by nuclear plants. Policies or public institutions capable of guiding
these decisions have not been developed in the Great Lakes basin.
One incident in 1988's drought demonstrated the kinds of conflicts about Great Lakes water which might
occur with climate change. When falling Mississippi River flows crippled barge navigation there, Illinois
proposed that the federal government permit increases in the Chicago diversion from Lake Michigan to the river
to enhance navigatioa Canada, governors of other Great Lakes states, provincial premiers, and UJS. Senators
from many Great Lakes states opposed the diversion, as did Great Lakes shipping and power interests. Senators
from Illinois and southern states supported the proposal, asking the Corps of Engineers to invoke "emergency
powers" to authorize the diversion based on the federal interest in navigation. The issue was not referred to the
IJC for consideration. After several weeks of study, the Corps rejected the proposal, finding it would be
ineffective in aiding Mississippi River barge traffic. The acrimony raised by the proposal spilled over into
debates about trade relations between Canada and the U.S., hampering agreement on a major tariff reduction
agreement.
WATER QUALITY
If the climate change scenarios for the region do occur, water quality management in the basin would be
more difficult. Present water quality goals could need revision. If greater anticipatory functions can be
developed, present institutions may be capable of managing point source discharges under climate change
conditions. Expansion in the proportion of land in farm use could increase the runoff of sediments and
pesticides.
The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement's basic goals of maintaining oligotrophic conditions in the
upper lakes and preventing nuisance algae blooms in the lower lakes would become much more difficult to
achieve if climate change occurs as projected. The concept of load management for nutrients and elimination
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of toxic substances would remain valid under climate change conditions. But rising water temperatures,
rWHnina water levels and resulting increases in nutrient and toxic chemical concentrations may require
SSSS sSxfar* tfihe agreement's present goals were to be retard. The northward shift in
on and apiculture could also influence the agreement, posing additional difficulties in meeting present
3faf^^es^TanTiuron, whose watersheds are now lately undeveloped. Population growth and
fem expansion in Canada could increase its need to discharge wastewater to the Lakes requiring a further
ScE ui. nutrient discharges if present targets for phosphorous loading are retained. Accommodating
these changes could require renegotiation of the water quality agreement.
Implementation of a more restrictive water quaHty agreement would challengethe region. The new and
lmpiemeniau re_uifed t0 produce cieaner effluent would be expensive. Those seeking water quality
improved treatmen q t for limited funds in an era where a host of economic, environmental, and
SS S£?a£s^«Ws Feto- dr ^legislation or cloje «gtal
be needed to a«ure that new Mandards are apphed urformly across the basin, bnubng
cooperationi wouioi w for new industries by lowering water quahty protection. Cleanup progress of
SteMly^nS AreaKconcem would become particular* important, as toxics and other pollutants
concentrated in these areas' shallower waters.
r. ... .. c „,iru environmental agencies in federal, state, and provincial governments, and
A variety of institution, such^ enwOT^ra^^ ^ "d i t discharge control. Losses of wetlands could exacerbate these
policies and institutions chai*^ wth surface water quality limits the me of lakes and
impacts. Pressures on groundwater ^ Groundwater quality management policies and institutions at all levels
rivers for water supply or waste oupww»- ^ats from airborne contaminants could also increase
of government are weak in the r gi demands are met by burning fossil fuels. This is another area where
with agricultural expansion or w™ f eovernment. New policies and strengthened implementing
policies and institutions the* thrSts. "* 1,08
institutions would be required to protect water quauy
LAND USE
. lake levels would expose lake bottoms and modify shorelines. Who would
Throughout the bas^ decuwng ^ ^ dear ^ ^ states have long developed doctrines
own lake bottoms exposed by aecuuuug mntroffinc State-owned lake bottoms, but a significant increase in their
of public trust and agencies ^
capabilities would be required to protect tne puuu
increases on
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and the preference for structural solutions to shoreline erosion will increase potential losses both from damage
to erosion-prone developments and from sunk costs if erosion control structures are no longer needed to protect
reconfigured shorelines.
Pressures on public land managers would grow. Foresters would need to seek tree crops suitable for the
modified climate. Because of the long lead time required to produce tree crops, these changes may be among
the first regional policy decisions which need to consider the prospects for climate modification. Public lands
such as national parks and forests could be called upon to provide areas to mitigate the impacts of land use
changes on surrounding private lands. For example, public forest lands could be managed to protect native
vegetation and wildlife otherwise threatened by habitat loss froth forest-type conversions. Recreational use of
public lands could also increase with growing immigration to presently rural northern portions of the region,
further reducing opportunities for resource productioa Present forest planning activities can help in managing
these changes.
The long tradition of local control of Great Lakes land use decisions could frustrate planning for climate
change. Where climate influenced features like aquifers or shorelines cross jurisdictional boundaries, policy
coordination will be difficult if new institutions are not created. Accommodation of larger-than-local concerns,
such as powerplant siting, could also be difficult. Relatively well-developed urban land use institutions would be
better able to manage the impacts of climate change than their rural counterparts, where climate change impacts
may be particularly important. If warmer temperatures make northern latitudes more attractive, immigration
may substantially increase populations in the northland's many small cities and villages. Accommodating this
population growth would require major changes in present land use practices in these communities and a
substantial investment in their infrastructure. In addition, increased agricultural opportunities in the north could
put a premium on protection of presently marginal northern farms and of forests where soils are potentially
prime. Presently weak rural land use planning institutions are ill prepared to deal with these impacts.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
The impact of climate change on the region's economic development strategies is mixed. Over the long
run, the basin may have advantages in accommodating climate change when compared to other regions of North
America. But the economic costs of accommodating those changes would be high, especially if the environment
which supports the Great Lakes' economy degrades. The basin presently lacks institutions capable of guiding
economic development so that it can best manage climate change impacts.
Demographic changes accompanying climate change might result in immigration to the region. The
population base sustaining service industries would expand. Talent and entrepreneurship that has been drained
by outmigration from parts of the region could be restored. In some areas, population growth could result in
better utilization of existing municipal infrastructure, but only with adequate maintenance in the mean time. In
other places, expensive new water supply, wastewater, electrical, and other service systems would be required.
Several key economic sectors seem especially sensitive to climate change. For example, industries which
used water for industrial processing or waste disposal would come under pressure. Efficient in water use and
waste disposal would be rewarded. Water-intensive industries traditionally important in the region, such as pulp
and paper, could become liabilities. So might industries affected by new restrictions on wastewater discharge
to the Lakes. Research and development activities targeted at increasing the water use efficiency of key
industries could be very important. Present institutions like the University of Michigan's Industrial Technology
Institute could be models for similar research and development efforts which assist key industries in adjusting
to climate change. Tax and regulatory structures which reward efficiency would also be helpful
Electric power generation would be influenced by loss of hydropower capacity, declines in cooling water
supplies, and pressures to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. National energy policies intended to control
greenhouse gas emissions would strongly affect the region. If policies favor use of nuclear generators to meet
growing energy needs, demands on water supplies would increase because of nuclear plants' higher level of
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water consumption. Demands for nuclear waste disposal would increase. On the other hanH policies which
continued reliance on fossil fuels for power generation could increase atmospheric deposition of pollutant^ in the
Lakes and the demands on the Lakes' navigation system.
Under either of these scenarios, power plant development adjacent to the Great Lakes could become
especially advantageous if comparatively more severe limits on cooling water supply in other regions prevented
power plant siting there. Undeveloped portions of the Lakes' shoreline might be considered for rf»n«oiiffatfd
power generation to serve distant power users, in much the same way that Great Basin power plants now serve
power users in southern California. These impacts would be difficult to manage if the present absence of
federal and state energy planning continues. Energy policies which encouraged conservation and efficient use
of energy could help minimize these potential adverse effects.
An alternative is to meet these demands with production outside the region. Increasing temperatures in
neighboring areas will also require additional capacity to meet increases in peak and annual demands. To the
extent that this capacity is not utilized fully in these regions, additional power could be available for sale to the
Great Lakes states. Power imports to the region could increase, decreasing the region's electric energy self-
reliance.
Rural economies based on forestiy and agriculture would be transformed by the modification of farm and
timber resources. In areas like northern Wisconsin, agriculture could displace forestry, requiring new facilities
and tprhnoingios for product processing, changes in employment patterns, and other alterations. Farther south,
irrigation agencies and facilities to process new crops could be needed. The uncertainty about the timing and
impacts of climate change will increase risks associated with long-term investments, such as tree plantations and
irrigation works. Financing for these kind of long-teim adaptations to climate change may be difficult to obtain.
Traditional programs, like government loans and price supports, which subsidize timber and farm economies'
might help finance these projects, but their cost could not be anticipated. Educational and research institutions
such as agriculture extension and cooperative forestiy research programs would be particularly important in
transferring technology which assisted in adapting to climate change.
Declining lake levels would clearly strain navigation on the Lakes. Water level reductions of the
magnitude forecast would make the Lakes' present navigation system difficult for the existing fleet to use. Costs
of transporting bulk products like ore, stone, fuel, and grain would increase substantially, increasing expenses for
steel producers, grain fanners in the Canadian prairies, coal-fired power generators, and others who depend on
the Lakes' navigation system. At the same time, demands on VS. ports in the system could increase if low
water makes the Mississippi River barge system less reliable. Deepening of navigation facilities would be
difficult because of the high cost and environmental effects of dredging. The slow pace of modernization in the
Lak?mSZSns^TemSver the past three decades suggests that present institutions are unlikely to develop
a timely response to these climate change impacts. As a result, demands on the region's surface transportation
system could increase. Performance of the region's highway system could be improved by snow free winters,
reducing winter maintenance costs.
Tourism would also be altered. Waterfront attractions in urban areas could be harmed by declining water
quality and^cnror lake levels. In
due to lower lake levels and changing
require expensive alterations to marinas, fish hatcheries, and other public investmentsthat support the present
tourism industry. Winter sports, like skiing and snowmobiling, which now help sustain year-round tourism in
the basin, would decline. On the other hand, a warmer, longer summer season may offer the potential for a
more attractive tourism resource.
Canada, sustained by its comparatively large water supplyand buoyed by the general northward shift in
apriculturemd forestry, might be better able to adapt to climate change than the VS. This may alter
SStoL trade relationships between the United States and Canada. The terms of trade across the border
Srid strongly influence the region's response «o ctoate ^e Free trade in power, farm and timber
and other goods would increase the flexibility available hi the region to accommodate climate change
impacts.
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CHAPTER 6
ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Several themes emerged during the course of the study that warrant examination.
First, additional research is needed to assist polity makers in understanding the impacts of climate change
in the region. Better information to verily regional climate models and predict the magnitude and timing of
riimat«» effects in the basin is needed. The management decisions confronting regional and local policy makers
cannot be made without more reliable forecasts of the magnitude and timing of climate changes. Climate
monitoring is necessary to confirm the predictions of climate change models. Since these phenomena occur on
a larger than regional (indeed a global) scale, the federal governments together with international organizations
should take responsibility for additional work in this area. Additional research on past climate perturbations,
like droughts or high lake levels, would assist in understanding potential impacts of climate change in the basin.
The responsible agencies should also be charged with providing information that explains climate change
phenomena to regional and local decision makers.
For those making decisions within the region now, climate change can be an additional factor which
encourages newly developing management trends within the region. Present efforts to improve the Great Lakes'
water quality and better manage their water supplies may provide an important competitive advantage in an era
when abundant, high-quality water for industry, population growth, and agriculture is constrained elsewhere. In
addition, economic development strategies which lave promoted research and development, technology transfer,
and increased efficiency in preparing for the economic changes of the next decade can help accommodate new
challenges which may accompany climate modification. The need to accommodate prospective climate
modification is just one more reason to husband water resources, manage shorelines wisely, and provide
adequate maintenance for infrastructure. For the time being, new regional and local policies which react to
riimato rhange are not needed. Development of these policies will need to await more reliable forecasts of the
magnitude and timing of climate changes.
Features which provide flexibility within our region will be especially useful in accommodating climate
change. Public lands, aquifer recharjge areas, prime farm lands, natural shorelines, and roads, for example,
become increasingly valuable, while inflexible infrastructure, such as our navigation system, is iess useful in
adapting to climate change. Policies, such as the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement and the Great Lakes
Charter, which promote collaboration and adaptation to new conditions can also be useful. Flexibility in
responding to changing climate should be a more important criterion for those investing in new infrastructure
or making decisions which may be affected by climate modification. This flexibility can assure the region's
ability to maintain the reliable public services which support economic development.
The weakness of long-term economic development and land use planning in the region can limit our ability
to respond proactively to climate change. Decisions on fuel sources for power generation, for example, have
strong influences both on the rate and extent of greenhouse gas generation as well as our ability to
accommodate its impact successfully. Similarly, land use planning to maintain some rural open spaces as
reserves for future use could be helpful in adapting to climate change impacts. The region presently lacks
institutions capable of making or implementing these long-term planning decisions.
Developing a proactive response to the potential for climate change is hampered by the absence of a
constituency advocating climate issues in the region's agenda. The absence of useful information and the
temporal distance of prospective impacts makes advocacy of climate issues difficult. The general inertia of
public institutions and large organizations further constrains the development of a proactive resoonse to the
threat of climate duuige. In the past, most pubUc decision making by national and state or provincial agencies
in the region has been characterized by after the fact reaction rather than proactive management. In the case
of climate change, this decision making style will be costly. Local and private decision Srs can demonstrate
?0re dta>to chan*e information to local and
private decision makers can be a first step in developing proactive strategies to manage it.
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Rural areas are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate modification. Economies dependent on
agriculture, forestry, and tourism, coupled with weak planning and environmental management institutions,
contribute to this vulnerability. Special attention to strengthening successful rural institutions such as the
agricultural extension program and resource conservation districts would be helpful in managing climate change's
potential effects in rural areas.
Climate change has a strong potential to influence U.S.-Canadian relations, especially in the Great t
basin. The general northward shift in agriculture and forestry, the amelioration of harsh climatic conditions,
and Canada's relatively abundant water supplies provide Canada with comparative advantages in adapting to
rlimatg change. In addition, impacts of climate change could increase conflict over the shared water resources
of the Great Lakes basin. Canada's demands on Great Lakes water resources would increase, requiring
adjustment of the two nations' use of the Lakes. International agreements, like the Boundary Waters Treaty,
may need to be revised to reflect contemporary priorities to be useful in managing these adaptations to climate
changes.
Free trade can increase the flexibility available in the region to respond to these changes by allowing easier
adjustments in regional economic patterns, such as the production of power, wood products, and food. But it
is not clear that Canada's national interests in economic development would be compatible with potential U.S.
desires to secure these resources from Canadian producers. Because of these potentially divergent interests and
the importance of U.S.-Canadian relations to the Great Lakes basin, collaborative U.S.-Canadian approaches to
climate change are desirable. Cooperative international institutions, such as the IJC, provide a useful forum for
that collaboration.
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REFERENCES
Anoa The Diversion Issue". Seaway Review Vol 17, No 2: pp. 9-13.1988.
Botts, Lee. "Case Study: Action On Phosphorus." In: Derisions For The Great Lakes. A. Donald Misener and
Glenda Daniel, eds. Great Lakes Tomorrow and Purdue Foundation, Hiram, Ohio, 1982. pp. 171-176.
Center for the Great Lakes. The Lake Effect: Impact of the Great Lakes on the Region's Economy. Chicago
and Toronto, 1984. 24 pp.
Center for the Great Lakes. Waterworks!. Chicago and Toronto, 1986. 32 pp.
Center for the Great Lakes. Great Lakes Water Quality Laws and Programs: a Binational Inventory. Vol. I and
II, Chicago and Toronto, 1987. 257 pp.
Center for the Great Lakes. A Look at the Land Side: Managing Eroding Shorelines on the Great Lakes.
Chicago and Toronto, 1988. 32 pp.
Center for the Great Lakes. Drought Effect Fact Sheet. Chicago and Toronto, 1988.
Cohen, Maxwell. "The International Web Part I: An IJC Perspective." In: Decisions For The Great Lakes. A.
Donald Misener and Glenda Daniel, eds. Great Lakes Tomorrow and Purdue Foundation, Hiram, Ohio, 1982.
pp. 153-156.
Council of Great Lakes Governors. Water Diversions and Great Lakes Institutions. Great Lakes Governors
Task Force, Wisconsin, 1985. 46 pp.
Council of Great Lakes Governors. Toxic Substances Control. Great Lakes Governors Task Force, Chicago,
1986. 36 pp.
Dietzel, Alfred and Warren Smith. Toward a Working Ohio: A Strategic Plan for the Eighties and Bevond.
Ohio Cabinet Cluster for Strategic Planning. Columbus, Ohio, 1983. 36 pp.
Duerksen, Christopher. Environmental Regulation of Industrial Plant Siting. The Conservation Foundation.
Washington, D.C., 1983. 232 pp.
Donahue, Michael. Institutional Arrangements for Great Lakes Management. Michigan Sea Grant College
Program, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1987. 394 pp.
Fairley, H. Scott. "The International Web Part III: Transboundary Disputes." In: Derisions For The Great
Lakes. A. Donald Misener and Glenda Daniel, eds. Great Lakes Tomorrow and Purdue Foundation, Hiram,
Ohio, 1982. pp. 161-166.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The Great Lakes Economy. A Resource and industry Profile of the Great
Lakes States. Harbor House Publishers, Inc., Boyne City, Michigan, 1985. 233 p.
Frankel, Ernest. "General Cargo Movements - Impact of Competing Networks and Developing Technology",
presented at Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Symposium, Quebec City, June 6-9,1982. 22 p.
Great Lakes Basin Commissioa Great Lakes Basin Framework Study. Great Lakes Basin Commissioa Ann
Arbor, Michigan, 1975.
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Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978. Consolidated by the International Joint Commission
Nov. 18,1987.130 pp. *unenaea
International Joint Commission. Great Lakes Diversions and Consumptive Uses. Washington D.C., 1985.82 pp.
International Joint Commission. Report on Great Lakes Water Quality Detroit, Michigan, 1987. 236 pp.
International Joint Commission. Regulation of Great Lakes Water Levels. Vol. 1, Detroit, Michigan, 1973. 293
Jeffers, William. U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy information Center, Personal Communication.
1988. ^
Keating, Michael* "An Ecosystem Health Report". Seasons Vol 27 No 3 pp 35-41,1987.
SftSS <" » Nnrthr a
Knopp, Timothy and Uel Blank. The North Shore Experience. Minnesota Sea Grant Institute Research R»™r.
No 8., Minneapolis, Minnesota, 1983. 80 pp. ^
Lindberg, Richard. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison. Personal Communication, 1988
MacAvoy, Peter V. "The Great Lakes Charter: Toward a Basinwide Strategy for Manasins the Great t .
Case Western Re**™ J. of Inter'l Law.. 18(1): 49-65,1986. ^
Manny, B A., "Potential Impacts of water diversions on fishery resources in the Great Lakes", Ffahftri^ 9(5). 19.
23,1984
Marchand, D., Sanderson, M, Howe, D. and Alpaugh, C. Climatic Change and cimt T ^i.. tk„ ,
on Shipping. University of Windsor, Ontario, Canada, 1988 17 pp 'n
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Sugarman, Robert J. "Binding Ties, Tying Bonds: International Options For Constraints On Great Lakes
Diversions." Case Western Reserve J. of Inter'l Law.. 18(1): 239-259, 1986.
Tarlock, Dan A. "Inter and Intrastate Usage of Great Lakes Waters: A Legal Overview." Case Western Reserve
J. of Inter'l Law.. 18(1): 67-108, 1986.
The DPA Group Inc. CQ2 Induced Climate Change In Ontario: Interdependencies and Potential Resource and
Socioeconomic Strategies. Environment Canada, Ottawa, 1986. 56 pp.
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POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
UPON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY RESERVOIR SYSTEM
APALACHICOLA RIVER, ESTUARY, AND BAY AND SOUTH FLORIDA
by
Mark Meo
Thomas E. James, Jr.
Steve Ballard
Lani L. Malysa
Robert E. Deyle
and
Laura A. Wilson
The University of Oklahoma
Science and Public Policy Program
601 Elm Avenue, Room 431
Norman, OK 73019
Contract No. CR-812835-01-4
-------
CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS m
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 6-1
OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY 6-1
ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT 6-2
CHAPTER 2: POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY
RESERVOIR SYSTEM 6-3
CHAPTER 3: POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER,
ESTUARY, AND BAY 6-6
CLIMATE SENSITIVITIES AND POTENTIAL CLIMATE
CHANGE IMPACTS 6-6
Projected Climate Change Impacts 6-7
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF ADAPTATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE 6-7
INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATIONS 6-7
Apalachicola Bay 6-8
Apalachicola Estuary 6-8
Apalachicola River 6-9
IMPLICATIONS FOR AGENCIES WITH APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN
JURISDICTION 6-9
CHAPTER 4: POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA 6-11
POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 6-11
ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 6-14
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND OPTIONS 6-15
PROSPECTS FOR ACTION 6-16
CHAPTER 5: INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE
CHANGE: COMPARISON OF SOUTHEAST CASE STUDIES 6-18
INTRODUCTION 6-18
ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK 6-18
Institutional Attributes 6-19
Comparative Assessment of the Case Studies 6-20
Institutional Capacity - TVA Reservoir System 6-20
Institutional Capacity - Apalachicola River,
Estuary, and Bay 6-20
Institutional Capacity - South Florida 6-34
DISCUSSION 6-35
Case Study Findings 6-35
Complementary Institutional Roles for Climate Change
Adaptation 6-36
Local Governments 6-36
State Governments 6-37
Federal Government 6-37
Implications for the Southeast 6-37
REFERENCES 6-39
ii
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS1
was Steve Ballard, Director of (be Science and Public Policy Program and Professor of PolSSSTXf
members of the research team who have contributed to the contents of the report are-Rn£r? p' i?/
Research Fellow and Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sdenpp- tu „ * Pe^e>
Jr., Research Fellow and Assotia.e Professor of E'
in PoMcal Science; and Laura A. Wilson, Graduate Research Associate in plbto aZw^
acknowledge the contributions of Aliya Aslam, Graduate Research Assistant in Civil Engineering
Individuals in each of the case study sites have provided valuable assistance to the research team tw
cooperation is greatly appreciated. »eam. lneir
For information and assistance contributed in conduct of the Tennessee Valley Authority case „
thank: Barbara Miller, Gary Brock, Ralph Brooks, Bevan Brown, John Crossman, Jan Jensen, John Needttjn
Richardson, and Christopher Ungate. Lj3iry
For information and assistance contributed in conduct of the Apalachicola case studv we twi,. n L
J. Livingston, Doug Bailey, Angel Cardec, Andrew Dzurick, Roberta Hammond, MarshaHarpool. St^e T Jit"™!
Pam McVety, Rich McWilliams, and Woody Miley, in. narpooi, j>teve Leitman,
For information and assistance contributed in conduct of the South Florida case study we thank- t. r
Baker, Russell Blackburn, Scott Burns, Frank Coale, John DeGrove, Judd Dewer, Richard Foster Jam^a™
Ronald Hight, Andrew Hobbs, Louis Hornung, Forrest Izuno, Don Kuyk, Erick Lindblad, Jorce Marban S
McKenna, William Mills, John Morgan, Heniy Ozaki, L. Anthony Pellicier, Steven Porter, Peter RhoJfe
Ritter, Richard Rogers, Jennifer Slayton, Michael Slayton, Richard Slyfield, David Thatcher James v!!^1
Bradley Waller, Jean West, and Carl Woehlcke. wiener, James yearil,
This project has benefited from the assistance of a dedicated support staff in the Science and Public Poiw
Program. Lennet Bledsoe, Assistant to the Director, was responsible for overall coordination, production
distribution of project materials. Carol Bernstein and Eileen Hasselwander provided able and tireless assistant
typing and organizing the contents of the report. Elizabeth Choinslci, resource librarian, was invaluable
providing research materials for the project.
The appendices include background material on natural resource trends in the Southeast and kev noli™
issues associated with them (Appendix 1). Detailed cased studies along with complete bibliographic referenced
are included by the TVA (Appendix 2); Apalachicola (Appendix 3); and South Florida (Appendix 4) These
appendices may be obtained from the principal investigator, Mark Meo.
'This report has been prepared by the Science and Public Policy Program at the University of Oklahoma.
It was made possible by support from theU5. Environmental Protection Agency, contract CR-81283S-01-4 We
gratefully acknowledge the assistance and support of our project officer, James G. Titus.
•••
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
This report addresses the policy implications of potential climate change impacts on three geographic
regions in the southeastern United States. Recent reports issued by national and international
associations (National Academy of Sciences 1983; Bolin et al. 1986) indicate that a doubling in atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations is likely to cause a global warming trend between 1-5°C and 4.5°C. Measured
increases in C02 and other trace gases (such as chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, and tropospheric
ozone) are expected to induce climatic changes different from any experienced in recorded history. Although
the magnitude and rate of climate change remain uncertain, the environmental impacts associated with climate
change may be severe or large in scale and irreversible.
In an effort to address the range of issues associated with potential climate change impacts and the
capacity of institutions to adapt to these impacts, the Science and Public Policy Program at the University of
Oklahoma examined the policy dimensions of three case studies in the Southeast: (1) Tennessee Valley
Authority Reservoir System; (2) Apalachicola River, Estuary, and Bay; and (3) South Florida. The case study
findings are generalized where appropriate for the larger Southeastern regioa
OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY
The objectives of the report are to identify the range of polity issues associated with predetermine
climate impacts for each case study site and assess the implications for potential institutional ariaptatfrn
or impact mitigation. Research on the potential biophysical impacts that climate change might have upon these
study sites was conducted independently by other researchers for the U5. Environmental Protection Agency
and was made available to the Science and Public Policy Program. Since water is of central importance to both
natural and social systems and received primary emphasis from each of the separate EPA subcontractors
focusing on potential climate change impacts on the Southeast, an emphasis on water-dependent uses was
maintained for the policy analysis studies.
The methodology consisted of two discrete steps. First, each case study region was described with respect
to its institutional setting and use of water resources. Second, the key water policy concerns were reviewed,
after which the potential climate change impacts provided by independent researchers (TVA: Miller and Brock
Volume A; Apalachicola: Livingston Volume E) were assessed with respect to the institutional setting and the
degree to which the institutions have the capacity to respond or adapt to climate change.
Scenarios of climate change ^ *om
Imtitute of Space StudL (GISS), and Oregon State University (OSU).
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ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT
This report includes summaries of three case studies together with an assessment of research findings
that addresses the capacity of institutions to adapt to potential climate change impacts. The Tennessee Valley
Authority reservoir system is summarized in Chapter 2; Apalachicola River, Estuary, and Bay in Chapter 3; and
South Florida in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 presents a framework for systematic comparison of the case studies and
includes recommendations for improving strategic planning based upon case study findings.
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CHAPTER 2
r/w r**m rriTTfiNS OF POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
^'^^SffiVWii?AinHORnY RESERVOIR SYSTEM
. , tnr _ chanae in global climate increases, concern has grown about the potential
As scientific evidence for a cnang _enerate for the United States. As part of a study conducted
environmental impacts that climate cnang, uu&i ^ ,s oQ ^ Soutijeastf this report specifically addresses
to assess the policy implications of cunw A) reservoir system. The analysis draws upon an
implications for the Tennessee V^ey bv ^ jva for the UJS. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
independent impact assessment cMaucieo / Uteratuie Potential climate change scenarios were
personal interviews with TVA officials, P incorporated into a model used for scheduling releases for
provided to the TVA subcontractors^the EPA ana incorpu
the TVA's multipurpose reservoir system.
~ t either of two Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) General
If the environmental impacts irom TVA reservoir system may be confronted with
Circulation Model scenarios of cfcmateicnang ^ hydroelectric power, navigation, and flood control Potential
substantial chaflenges to its pr^MC^Win 0f atmospheric carbon dioxide also may affect the overall
climate change impacts based upon a aouwu* ^ requke further collective or joint actions by
environmental quality of the Tennessee vau y m0fe ^ aggressive efforts directed
federal, state, and load quality in the region, the potential for continued economic development
may be diminished. ... , . . , .. .
• TVA svstem is characterized by more abundant precipitation and
If the regional climate the TVA system may foster regional economic .fevelopmentfrom
runoff during the wet se*on po™ production and pos^ty navigmioi^ improved stream
benefits attained through enhanced ^ ^ increased recreational uses of the reserves and
water quality for environmental andT^n ^ necessitate attention to risks from dam spittsaad
streams. At the same time,more iraterintt^ rainfall could exacerbate nonjwmtwu^sediment
notential flooding at vulnerable sites quaUty. In contrast, less runoff into the TVA system
Sd nutrienrSng and further ^^ha!^. lal-fired or nuclear power, curtail recreational use of the
SiK 2 sSenS) would augment demand forco*™*» ^ ^ would directly affect TVA
operations e .wlnnmrTf concerns affecting the TVA region, each of these
In view of current water and economyt0 strengthen its mandated missions and promote
»ja3tgSgS{saa!gB««gS
upon reservoir resources for potaoie1
industrial and municipal wastewater by GISS 2 "impacts. A km of the
payers, individual polluters, or taxpayers m general.
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Increased recreational use of reservoirs would complement state economic development strategies and
provide a wider base for financing necessary improvements. Since the potential climate change impacts from
a wetter environment would fall within the jurisdiction of a good portion of TVA's programmatic strengths, the
agency could address the institutional and technical aspects of the impacts in a fairly systematic and independent
manner. Improvements in hydropower-related systems could be financed by ratepayers in a straightforward
way. Service charges on increased recreational use of TVA reservoirs could be used to offset some of the costs
associated with water quantity and quality concerns.
Alternatively, as water resources diminished, the drier G1SS 2 scenario would tend to increase institutional
tensions and conflicts associated with water allocation criteria, specific impact mitigation and resource
management strategies, and formulas for financing needed improvements. For example, reduced water supply
would increase demands for public involvement in TVA decisionmaking, including revision of reservoir guide
curves, and would intensify the need for improved institutional coordination for water quality concerns (such as
ground water quality) that are multijurisdictional in scope. As a result, the policy issues associated with GISS
2 impacts would emphasize those management concerns that affect TVA's primary responsibilities and the
tradeoffs among issues that shape its ability to carry out specific missions.
The ability of TVA to adapt or adjust to potential climate change impacts and mitigate them where feasible
will be constrained by a variety of institutional factors that shape the agency's ability to carry out its mission.
Within the next several decades TVA may alter its mission and organizational structure significantly from what
it is today. Indeed, the recent corporate reorganization coupled with the worst drought of the century have
placed new internal arrangements under considerable external stresses. Although TVA has proven to be an
innovative and resilient organization, the degree to which it can successfully adjust to potential climate change
impacts is an open question.
Specific attributes of TVA's institutional composition may provide a useful baas for addressing this question
for specific impacts related to water surplus (GISS 1 scenario), water shortages (GISS 2 scenario), and water
quality (GISS land 2 scenarios). Divided as it is into power and nonpower entities, TVA commands access to
sufficient financial resources and technical expertise to satisfy its mission objectives in power operations, but lacks
either a comparable mandate or financial resources in its nonpower program areas.
Despite this division, however, TVA has developed a well-deserved reputation for developing and promoting
technological and administrative innovations in nonpower program areas. Wirtz (1976) could not identify any
instances when TVA received congressional denials for budgeted project requests.
TVA's geographic jurisdiction is well suited for responding to potential climate change impacts from either
GISS scenario. Strategies for implementing more unified basinwide management or conjunctive surface and
ground water quality management would be compatible with the geographic scope of TVA's planning purview.
However, a recurrent problem that appears to affect TVA programs is the demand for increased public
accountability, especially in power operations. Despite its legislated accountability to the people of the United
States through congressional oversight, TVA's unilateral decisionmaking authority has yet to be reversed by
Congress, excluding legislative amendment. In recent years, rate increases have not been subject to review by
Valley customers, nor are ratepayers fully represented in congressional oversight committees. In order to
become more responsive to potential climate change impacts on Valley residents, TVA will have to develop more
fully its public accountability mechanisms.
Should more precise climate change forecasts become available, TVA currently is well organized to assess
the implications of climate change for each and all of its programs and develop responses. However, two
constraints to the timely execution of a coherent or systemwide response lie in TVA's legal mandate and the
bureaucratic inertia associated with channeling the climate change message through the system and deciphering
what courses of action appear appropriate. The first efforts undertaken by TVA staff to «a the implications
of climate change are those conducted by Nielsen et al. (1987) and Miller and Brock (Volume A). Additional
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studies, motivated most likely by the current drought, will greatly improve the agency's understanding of how to
manage water shortages effectively (Brown 1988).
Genera] strategies that TVA might pursue to plan for the potential impacts of climate change include the
following:
- Revise the TVA Act to address the issues and implications of climate change for regional multiple use
water management and economic development.
- Work more closely with state and regional jurisdictions by promoting development planning activities
prescribed in Sections 22 and 23 of the TVA Act.
- Address and mitigate the growing threats to ground and surface water quality degradation through more
vigorous implementation of such measures as conjunctive use and uniform basinwide management.
- Revise the TVA's internal budget to accommodate environmental management needs in nonpower
programs,
- Seek expanded congressional appropriations to pay for environmental improvements.
At present the potential for TVA to foster adaptive strategies and institutional initiatives designed to deal
with detrimental aspects of climate change is quite promising. In a manner that is consistent with its past
Slu^TSdSSnew and ^jjroblen* within its sptere ofmtere*but which also seeks' to
accommodate the concerns of Valley stakeholders, the TVA has embarked on a system-wide effort to redefine
its organizational priorities, including appropriate economic ^environmental roles-Througha series of public
workshops and various innovations in internal coordination, the TVA, through collaborative federal-state efforts
like Land and Water 201, is likely to recast itself as a more responsive and flexible organization which will be
better equipped to address impacts associated with climate change.
If TVA is to accommodate climate change impacts effectively, it wiHlikely require more precise impact
Droiectioroamenableto scientific agreement in order to begin the process of building awareness throughout TVA
SroST Due tothe cyclical nature of climate variability, a substantial lead time (a decade or more) will be
25 for TVA to dfccern the influence of climate change, to assess the implications for Valley resources,
and to adjust its internal operations where appropriate.
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CHAPTER 3
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
ON THE APALACHICOLA RIVER, ESTUARY, AND BAY
The Apalachicola Bay and Estuary is the gulfward terminus of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF)
River system, which drains portions of Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. The ACF River system is managed to
enhance water supply, irrigation for agriculture, and maintenance of ecological resources, specifically the
Apalachicola Bay and Estuary, navigation, hydropower, flood control, and water-based recreation.
The Apalachicola River, Estuary, and Bay are unique in that they represent a successful combination of
land-use planning and resource management of a pristine area rich in natural resources. The Apalachicola River
is considered to be one of the last major river systems in this country to remain in a relatively natural state
(Livingston 1983). Initiatives such as public acquisition of major tracts of land, by the State of Florida, special
estuarine reserve designation through the federal Coastal Zone Management Program, and state-managed
growth and development of the Apalachicola area have been instrumental in maintaining this uniqueness.
Combined with its ecological uniqueness, the Apalachicola Bay provides an important economic base for
Franklin and adjacent counties. The bay is one of the most productive bays in Florida for seafood production
with the bay supporting a significant commercial and sport fish, shrimp, oyster, and crab industry. In 1986, the
value of the total dockside catch was over $12.1 million with a six-county regional impact on the economy of over
$23.3 million (National Marine Fisheries Service 1988; Prochaska and Mulkey 1983). The bay supplies 90 percent
of Florida's oysters and 10 percent of Florida's shrimp (Livingston 1983; Miley 1988). The local people have
retained cultural and economic ties with the natural resources of the Apalachicola. This is evidenced by the
fact that over 85 percent of the Franklin County population makes their living from the bay (Miley 1988).
Water management of the Apalachicola River drainage basin is characterized by overlapping and sometimes
conflicting responsibilities between federal, state, and local agencies (Florida Department of Environmental
Regulation 1984). While the UJS. Army Corps of Engineers has consistently managed the Apalachicola River
for navigation, the Florida state agencies have managed the system for ecosystems maintenance, thus protecting
the economic base of the region. Water management practices of the local Franklin County government have
been characterized by heavy reliance on the financial resources and technical expertise of the state, combined
with a suspicion toward an increased state regulatory and enforcement presence in the Apalachicola area.
CLIMATE SENSITIVITIES AND POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
The natural resources of Apalachicola Bay would be highly sensitive to climate change impacts, especially
those impacts from sea level rise and the increased occurrence of extreme events, such as hurricanes and
droughts. Sea level rise would bring increased salinity regimes in the bay. Droughts pausing low flows in the
Apalachicola River would result in decreased transport of essential nutrients to the bay and increased Minify
levels in the bay (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 1987). Variations of salinity would result in fluctuations of both
oysters and oyster predators such as boring sponges, gastropod mollusks, and crustaceans (Livingston 1983).
In addition, the barrier islands and the Town of Apalachicola would be highly vulnerable to sea level rise.
The barrier islands, especially St. George Island, are the keys to productivity of the Apalachicola Estuary. The
islands act as a barrier to direct release of the nutrient-laden fresh water entering the bay from the Apalachicola
River. The islands are the critical component in determining salinity distribution and water flow in the bay
(Livingston 1983). Finally, the islands act as barriers against waves and storm surges. Sea level rise would bring
erosion, and ultimately inundation, of the islands and the coastline. Most of the barrier and much of the
coastline would be inundated with a two-meter rise in sea level (UJS. Geological Survey 1982)
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nimate impacts
nVJPrffV VtHHWY twtrirnw
Using biophysical data acquired on the Apalachicola Bay over the past 15 years and models provided by
Dr. C.F. Hains (Volume A) for projected water budgets for the ACF Basin, Livingston (Volume E) has
estimated potential changes in estuarine productivity and dominant (commercially valuable) populations of
shellfish and finfish in response to greenhouse gas-induced climate change. Hains* models are based on the
GFDL, GISS, and OSU climate change scenario predictions, based upon a doubling of carbon dioxide.
Livingston also utilizes data concerning sea level changes in the Apalachicola region from Dr. Richard Park
(Volume B).
In all three climate change scenarios, Livingston (Volume E) projects a decrease in river flow and in the
quantity of important nutrients carried into the estuary. In addition, all three scenarios predict an increase in
mean salinity levels. Livingston concludes that these impacts would cause losses in all major categories of
seafood catches, including oysters, white shrimp, blue crabs, and finfish. The oyster population will be
particularly vulnerable to increased predation as a result erf increased salinity. Pink shrimp would be the wily
species with a small net gain.
SpCUCa a c»
.. t, ..-.-matures of the Apalachicola Estuary are dose to the upper thermal
Currently, "the summer bghtJF* m,rrinlly important) species in the system" (Livingston Volume
tolerance limits of most of the aom ^ the structure and productivity of Apalachicola Bay are likely.
E). If temperature change does ore , « don dominance and fisheries potential as well as the possible
These changes would include smira Livingston's GFDL projections indicate the greatest impact
adaptation and/or substituton by J^maximum temperatures of the estuary,
with an increase of 3 to 5 percent in ««=
. .-j r ivinoston (Volume E) notes that a two-meter increase by the year 2100 would
With regard to sea level rise, aaltwater marshes ami losses of over half of the swamps of the
result in almost total losses of frwlww^ decreased annual particulate organic carbon levels from 337,385
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF ADAPTATIONS TO CUMATC CHANGE
Thepoltcy cover.md Mnqfrrtjiy
structural and nonstructural wieriMu manage the river, estuary, and bay as they currently are being
strategies. Notion str^(" portray* by UytagBon to hU Impact rarament
managed) will result in the potent®j^^je structural interventions taken to counter the impacts
of the Apalachicola area. of resources, property and population settlements
of climate change. Such actionsm^t modifications. An array of structural responses has been
of the Apalachicola area ttaooP"Ka levdf i„duding "soft" structural responses, such as beach
identified for countering the effetfcw am^-s^ bulkheadgt seawalls, levees, breakwaters, and jetties
renowishment, and "hard" re^n««, »^ » 1984). Nonstructural strategic retreat options encompass
(National Research Council 19g7; S°reMefl directly countering them. Strategic retreat calls for
metur« footing to ctoate^topacts whue » _ ^
near-term optimization of the existing
and population settlements.
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to climate change. This mix of strategies would, in turn, determine which agencies would take the lead in
adapting to individual impacts of climate change.
Apalachicola Bav
A mixed strategy for the Apalachicola Bay would include options relating to the barrier islands, the Town
of Apalachicola, and commercial, residential, and recreational land uses. While a two-meter rise in sea level
would not inundate the Town of Apalachicola, the town would become more vulnerable to storm surges. In an
effort to protect the Town of Apalachicola from storm surges, structural improvements, such as beach
renourishment, could be made on the barrier islands and on the mainland. Residents of the Town of
Apalachicola could be further protected by a series of local and county land-use ordinances that would promote
use of land not immediately in danger from sea level rise.
Franklin County would require both technical assistance (from the Army Corps of Engineers and the
Department of Natural Resources) and financial assistance (from the State Department of Community Affairs
and the legislature) in order to provide for protection against sea level rise to the residents of Apalachicola.
Franklin County could make use of its comprehensive land-use planning process to adopt ordinances that would
make use of land not in danger from sea level rise. If the ordinances were not implemented satisfactorily, the
Department of Community Affairs could provide enforcement and financial powers by once again having the area
legally designated as an "Area of Critical State Concern."
The Army Corps of Engineers and the State Department of Natural Resources could take the lead in
strategic planning for beach renourishment and for financing and performing the structural modifications to the
barrier islands and the mainland. The Corps' strength rests in its financial resources and its in-house technical
expertise and experience relating to structural modifications to defend coastlines. However, since the Corps is
primarily a reactive agency, the State of Florida would need to play the primary negotiating role as to what
structural modifications the Corps would perform and the cofunding schedules. The strength of the Department
of Natural Resources lies in its strategic planning program for beach restoration. Under this program, the
Department's Division of Beaches and Shores prioritizes beach renourishment projects and assesses the long-term
need for additional renourishment (Florida Department of Natural Resources 1988).
Apalachicola Estuarv
A mixed strategy for the Apalachicola Estuary would include options relating to the purchased lands in the
estuarine preserve, loss of habitat, and new settlement opportunities. Until such time as climate change would
bring an increase in estuary temperatures, the oyster catch in the estuary could be maximized through
management techniques utilizing the latest oyster culture technology. Sea level rise would bring a loss of the
purchased lands in the estuarine reserve, but new lands could be opened up for population settlement
opportunities.
Because of its proactive mission of research and education, the Apalachicola Estuarine Research Reserve
could play the lead role in coordinating all estuarine research and in obtaining, utilizing, and disseminating
technical information on oyster culture to the local oystermen. Increased funding from NOAA would be required
for the research reserve to build up its staff and in-house expertise base to perform this role. The Department
of Natural Resources could play an important role in performing oyster culture and other fisheries research.
The state land planning agency, the Department of Community Affairs, and the Apalachee Regional
Planning Council could play the lead role in planning and managing for new population growth in the area.
Through its comprehensive planning process and by again designating Apalachicola as an "Area of Critical State
Concern," both state agencies could provide technical expertise and financial help to Franklin County government
to provide for new population growth in the area.
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Apalar^mte Rivef
^ TTir" n
* ctratAov for the Apalachicola River would include options relating to navigation and to new
A mixed strategy .? while climate change-induced decreased river flow could make navigation
on S'aCT W^m?y ^^tical, structural modifications to the navigationi channel could be made by the Corps
on the ACF waterway unpim. ^ estuarme research findings and environmental values in
¦^ne.^.he^^nasa.ho.e.
U1CU _
New industrial and economic opportunities to diversify and enhance the economy of the Apaladiicola River
Basin area could include the introduction of freshwater aquacultUre and fish processing industries along the river,
as well as active promotion of water-related tourism. The Apalachee Regional Planning Council could play the
lead role in promoting appropriate economic development strategies for the area as well as promoting funding
¦« — it,n„nh th* Reeional Planning Council has inadequate financial resources, a small staff and
- --- . rtisp thev have been aaepi m wveraBu* «»»»= 10
little in-house technical expertise, state agencies and university research units. They have some
economic development opportunitiesurow development, such as aquaculture, along the Apalachicola River,
success in promoting appropriate the cooperation of county and local governments along the river
The Regional Planning Council woura ren ^ strategies t0 minimize the loss of the economic base of support
in order to provide the economic aeveiopw ^ fegional reinVestment that acknowledge the vagaries
for the area as well as to identity ne p
of climate change.
AruwrtES WITH APALACHICOLA RIVER BASIN JURISDICTION
IMPLICATIONS FOR AGENCIES wun
• , Bcnrimes relating to education, first detection, strategic planning, state
A number of organizational response ^ (he near tenn by the agencies involved in the Apalachicola
assistance, and risk assessment, couw °e ^ Sljch organizational respomes would enhance climate
River Basin to prepare adeq^tely for m ^ pIans by the State of Florida, Corps of Engineers,
change planning and the capacity to uuu« Franklin ^nty government. These responses are discussed in
Aoallchicola Research Reserve, and tne locai
the following section.
• d acoarrh Reserve, with its mission of research and education and its excellent
The Apalachicola Estwm* Rese ^ f ^ t0 national needs for estuarine climate change research,
geographic location, is the ideal orgaraw. ^ impacts in the Apalachicola River, Estuary, and Bay
Research could include first detection ^.(ed ecosystems. As the research reserve's legislative mandate,
region and the projected unpads on uki ^ reflect the need for national estuarine research reserves
the Coastal Zone Management Act cou» . ^ Apalachicola Research Reserve's legislative mandate
to carry out climate change resew^ ad p NOAA, in the research and staff budgets, in order for the
would also need to be coupled with change research.
research reserve to coordinate and cany out cum
, . ctate of Florida could include strategic planning and increased state
Organizational responses for roe,awi M of 1985> which calk for state, county, and municipal
financial support. First, Ffondas_ Growmx^Jg tQ strategic planning for the impacts of climate change,
comprehensive land-use plans, could be rnern^ to reflect strategfc options for adaptations to climate
Franklin County's comprehensive plan^1^ ^ m change will have ontheewnomyof Franklin
change impacts. Second, because of " for economic development ofthe Apatechicola region
County, state agency coordination andsttateg ^ Coaxnj. designation is withdrawn. Third, the State
would have to continue even if the Area 01 on ^ ^Water Manasement District to allow th«m
of Florida should increase - _ . _ specmcouj, ««> o—
to play a larger role in the Apalachi^a^ a roIe ^ estimating the effects of climate change on the
increased financial resources in oroer ^uid require a state constitutional amendment to remove the millage
Apalachicola River drainage basin. f ^ ^ter management district A more appropriate constitu-
cap of one-twentieth of one percent for ^tjtutional limits for the other four water management
tional millage cap would be 1.0, wmcn
districts in Florida
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There is also a need for climate change risk assessment to be performed for the ACF River basin. As the
coordinator of water management studies in the ACF basin, the Corps of Engineers could respond to this need
by incorporating risk assessment into their ongoing "308" basin wide water management planning. Risk analyses
could be used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to help revise their insurance rates for coastal
properties.
Finally, both federal and state organizations will need to respond with climate change educational efforts,
aimed at water resources managers, natural resource policymakers, and the public. The Northwest Florida Water
Management District and the Florida Department of Environmental Regulation could play the lead role in
bureaucratic education. The Water Management District could play the lead role in estimating the effects of
climate change and disseminating that information to other state agencies. The Florida Department of
Environmental Regulations Water Department Division could play the lead role in statewide climate change
education. Finally, the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve could play the lead role in educating
the public about the potential impacts of climate change on the estuarine and river system.
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CHAPTER 4
POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POTENTIAL CLIMATE
CHANGE IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
This case study is one of three conducted as part of an assessment of the policy implications of greenhouse
gas-induced climate change on the Southeast. The study is a prospective analysis of policy implications based
on sensitivities of the water and coastal resources of South Florida to climate change and sea level rise
South Florida has considerable merit as a case study for developing analogies for the policy implications
imato rhantre in the southeastern United States. The range of annual and interannual variability of current
' —!n -Wl,
of climate
•J UU as a case study ior aeveioping analogies iur uie poucy implications
i Florida has considerable meiu ^ range of annual and interannual variability of current
.uu— change in the southeastern umw ' 0f the conditions that maybe anticipated in other portions
climate conditions in South Florida encompass change. South Florida's water resources and natural
of the Southeast as a result of long-tem igju of ^ conditions that may result from climate change,
systems also have a high level of semiuwy , u m indicator of how biophysical systems may
including sea level rise. South Flonda may be extant dimate and biophysical conditions in Florida have
react to stresses imposed by climate ctwnge. r management institutional structure that can offer
stimulated development of a sophisticatea wa elsewhere in the Southeast to contend with the
insight into options for adapting conert£ouc k tone of this water resources institutional structure is the
potential impacts of global climate cnang .
state water management district sys
u^e watershed and the area south and downstream of the lake.
South Florida consists of the ^e Okeecft westj ^ east of it (see Figure 1). Water resources
This analysis focuses only on the tateari » * mfat Qf mturauy occurring surface and ground water
manaeement in the region is characterized oy a t network of canals, levees, pump stations, and
2S an extensive water stored in Lake Okeechobee and the Water
Swaw Major water sources iwlude the sun ^ jading the highly minerataed Hawthorn
areas and ground water from a num "4^ Surface water provides about 45 percent of all
SfeTand the high transmissMy, provides the remainder. Ninety-five percent of public
w£ «7d Xn the distrid,(Sooth Florida Water Management District 1985b).
W Blwl VUIUWIUVW " — _
and domestic water is drawn from
temporal and spauaia,sltluu""" ~ r ^ ^ piorfda Water Management District
^ • -J* 4;„„Qi » <¦ »3EiSb^nrainfallquanted W)inaeasedevapotranspiration
frequency of tropical storms; p These dimate change trendshave potentid impMratf^ for water
(Pielke et al. 1988; Rhoads et al.tion md coastal storm damage, and
supply quantity and quality, agriculture, navigation,
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Figure 1. South Florida Water Management District boundaries.
Source: South Florida Water Management District 1988a.
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natural system protection. The sensitivity of each of these resource management concerns was assessed in the
context of the following five potential climate change impacts: (1) more frequent short-term droughts or
prolonged water shortages; (2) increased wet season precipitation; (3) increased incidence of tropical storms; (4)
sea level rise; and (5) tropical pest invasions.
IS.
, • a maior challenge for the existing flooding and drainage system in South Florida
aea revel rise could pose i mJ — ^ et ^ 1987). Pumped drainage may be required in a large
which relies principally on gravity v Sea jevei ^ is likely to result in higher flood waters
proportion of the agricmtunu ana ^ which could exceed the capacity of the perimeter levee along the
upstream (National Research council ' essment of these potential impacts presently is constrained by the
western edge of the urban coastal nog . ionger dearly defined due to significant changes in land use
fact that Hood control 19sg)
that have occurred since the system was ^
, , intrusion due to sea level rise may aggravate the necessity of relocating surficial
Progressive coastal saltwater irar Qf f^i^ater through canals to maintain sufficient head to retard
aquifer wellfields or for constraints, however, to inland relocation of wellfields in some
advance of saline ground water pfomes. merear
areas (Baker 1988; Thatcher 1988).
t «is chanse is an increase in tropical storm and hurricane frequency
Another potential result of dim 0fSouth p^nda plus the Florida Keys will be acutely vulnerable
(Emanuel 1987). The urban coastal q{ interventions (South Florida Regional Planning Council
to such climate change impacts m uw hufricane scenario in terms of what areas are susceptible to
1987b). Sea level rise will alter rac areas currently exposed to major storm impacts
major storm impacts. In the aD^nw ™ ^ susceptible t0 storm surge damage will be threatened. To the
will be inundated, while inland are® ^ ^r storm buffer systems cannot be established apace with rising
extent that unmanaged mangrove too o* ^ ^ sea levels m shaUow water areas typical of the South
sea level, storm exposures are uxeiy \ (National Research Council 1987). Current beach resources
^ P0»l«y » • r-. Of .M « wdl
. tu 8n.i»h Florida dry season, coupled with higher temperatures and associated
Decreased rainfall during WW"" TiTwmi short-term water shortages. Some of the crops
evapotranspiration, could leadI to morewiabaity) but their sensitivities to short-term water shortages
currently grown are relatively toterni w irrigation demands would be expected to increase under such
have not been well defined (Coate ««««* J capacities. More frequent water shortages w long-term
circumstances, which would furthe«mfrom^mmercial and recreational boat traffic on the Okeechobee
drought also could reduce economic reran*
Waterway. ^
,ead t0 more rapid loss and subsidence of the Everglades muck soils
Increased annual temperatures coiuo» ^ of(en during drought conditions, could become more
due to biochemical oxidation, ^j*^invU0ns of exotic pests from the tropics also poses possible, although
problematic. The potentia^f ^ bUc health in Sooth Florida,
ill-defined, impacts for agriculture anu v
cnn rainfall could stress the water storage and pumping capacity of the
Significant increases in wet season ^ _ et d< 1987). Inability to remove sufficient water from
Centraland South Florida Hood Control Fr Action 0f some crops. To the extentthat the drainage
drained agricultural areas ^"ld.r"U^mJdate significant increases in runoff, greater discharges would
system islapable of or S^Sonal Park and the major estuaries. Long-term increases in the
probably be required to both the Eve giaow
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volumes of freshwater discharged to these ecosystems could alter their biologic composition and ecologic
functions.
Dramatic changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems also can be anticipated as a result of sea level rise
in areas subject to inundation or altered tidal influence. As much as 45 percent of Everglades National Park
could be below sea level by 2030, with an additional 5 percent subject to tidal influence (Rhoads et al. 1987).
Sea level rise also will dramatically alter the physical conditions that largely define the shallow water habitat of
Florida Bay (Hendrix 1988). Similar impacts are likely in Biscayne Bay and the Indian River Lagoon. Major
natural features, such as the Pennekamp coral reef and the Florida Keys, and numerous rare and endangered
species may be at risk from sea level rise impacts as well as habitat alteration engendered by changes in
meteorologic conditions.
ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
Strategies for contending with the impacts of greenhouse gas-induced climate change can be divided into
two categories: (1) adaptive strategies for projected impacts on specific resources and (2) organizational strategies
for enhancing institutional capacity to respond to the projected impacts. Some of the strategies currently
employed by the SFWMD and other institutions to contend with water and coastal resources management
problems in South Florida will have applications in adapting to climate change impacts.
Current resource management strategies pertinent to climate change adaptation in South Florida include
those directed at the following issues: (1) coordination of land use, water quality, and water quantity
management; (2) efficient water use; (3) contingency planning for drought management; (4) minimizing storm
losses; and (5) protection and enhancement of natural systems. Coordination between land use management and
water resources management, and integration of water quality and water quantity management, are critical not
only to near-term effective water resources management but also to coping with the additional stresses that may
be imposed on water supply quantity and quality as a result of climate change. Recognition of the importance
of these issues by the SFWMD was responsible for the local government assistance and coordination initiative
embodied in the district's Office of Resource Assistance, the recently begun Water Use Management Planning
Program, and state legislative proposals that eventually resulted in the 1987 Surface Water Improvement and
Management legislation.
Increased water use efficiency is essential to accommodating projected water supply demands in South
Florida. A water use efficiency strategy also is clearly an essential component of any adaptive strategy for
contending with climate change in South Florida. The primary strategy being employed by the SFWMD is
through the leverage afforded by its water use permitting powers. The Governing Board has taken the position
that the use of water for nonpotable purposes from sources acceptable for potable use is "neither reasonable
and beneficial nor in the public interest" where economically feasible alternative sources can be developed to
meet nonpotable demands (Woodraska 1984). The district also is exploring other strategies such as exempting
permittees from water shortage restrictions if they are served by a dual potable/nonpotable water supply system
and incorporating inverted rate structure requirements in future public water purveyor permits (Morgan 1988;
Rogers 1988).
Drought management strategies are an essential supplement to the water use efficient strategy. To the
extent that greenhouse gas-induced climate change increases the potential for short-term or more prolonged and
geographically extensive water shortages, a drought management contingency strategy also is important to climate
change adaptation. The SFWMD Water Shortage Plan contains explicit mandatory and voluntary consumptive
water use restrictions for different water uses for four levels of water shortage and for a water shortage emergen-
cy within specified water source classes. The district also has developed a model local water shortage
enforcement ordinance and promoted its adoption.
Flood control in agricultural and developed areas is the one area where strategic water resources planning
seems to have lagged most recently in South Florida. While both the district and the Corps of Engineers
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recognize that major changes in land use since design and construction of the Central and Cm.m pi„ „
Control system have altered design capacities, sufficient resources have not yet teen™!!!?'? ^
comprehensive reanalysis of the system. However, a comprehensive review of the swtem ;c ^ f?r a
the next few years (Rhoads 1988c). The district is, however, making strategic use of targeted ^thin
control system analyses. Results are used to assess the adequacy of land use controls for preventimr ft ,,frama6e
on flood and drainage system capacities and in writing surface water management permits rurUler stress
Minimizing coastal damage from major storms and hurricanes is principally the Droviiu* t
emergency management agencies, the State Department of Community Affairs Division of Fm C°Unty
Management, and the Army Corps of Engineers. A hurricane contingency planning studv rrim'
South Florida Regional Planning Council in 1987 will serve as the basis for developing
hurricane hazard mitigation plans by local governments. Section 406
The strategic concern with natural system protection and enhancement is how to achieve this ohWf
contending with other water resources management objectives keyed to public health and safetv n
protection, drainage, and water supply quantity and quality. A similar issue must be confronted in'tn ^
policies for contending with greenhouse gas-induced climate change, but it is complicated by the mtenthfnr
effects of climate change on individual species, natural communities, and ecosystems There ar f ?ct
components to the multi-institutional regional strategy for protecting and enhancing natural svstem*7 ?aj°u
Florida: (1) resource impact assessment and mitigation; (2) resource acquisition; (3) resource r»rot
enhancement through direct management; and (4) resource protection and enhancement through repUatiorud
These four strategic components should provide a basis for contending with the indirect imoactx of r
change on natural systems, i.e., those that result from climate change impacts on use and managementnf"ate
resources. These strategies will have little utility, however, in dealing with the direct effectsof climat 1fater
on individual species and ecosystems. Significant management interventions will be necessary to orecnai?8e
and communities whose climatologjcal tolerances will be stressed or exceeded by greenhouse eas-indurpfl s£eaes
change. In many instances the major polity issue will be whether to attempt to mitigate climate • ate
on natural systems or allow them to adjust to new biophysical equilibria. ««ange impacts
In addition to substantive adaptive strategies, opportunities exist for enhancing institutional canarih, r
contending with both current water resources management concerns and the potential impacts of climate h
These include strategies to increase interagency coordination, alter the organizational andonerar8^
major water management institutions, and acquire ami analyze data needed to detect and rlimatftTu°n
impacts. Interagency coordination opportunities mainly involve increased coordination between the distrVtH
local governments; greater coordination among water supply, drainage, and wastewater treatment servir*
at the subregional level; and consensus building. districts
Two critical dimensions of organizational design and process affect institutional capacity to manao* am*
resources: (1) ability to integrate the expertise and resources of multiple disciplines; and (2) the re.3.« I
technical ability to acquire, analyze, and act upon scientific and technical information. Both are imoortanf ~
institution's ability to define the probable impacts of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, detect Ci™!° ®
when they occur, and assess and implement adaptive responses. The water management district's m-
initiatives for enhancing organizational strategic planning and response capabilities have been the instituti*®0*
formal matrix-style planning and problem-solving and creation of the Office of Resource Assistance s ,!?
organization's internal and external boundary spanner (Harvey 1988), 85 ltte
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND OPTIONS
The major policy issues to emerge from persistent seasonal water shortages or the occurrence ofm-nim^
droughts as a result of climate change will involve assessing economic, distributional, and natural
tradeoffs between structural and nonstructural alternatives for increasing supplies or water use efficient
the costs of economic losses from chronic water shortages. The SFWMD's current efforts to "KT*nj^
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coordination of land use, water quality, and water quantity management and planning, and their drought
management contingency strategies, offer a substantial basis for quantifying and assessing the costs and benefits
of alternative adaptive strategies, once better data are developed on the timing and magnitude of climate change
impacts. Organizational strategies to increase interagency coordination and consensus building also will be
important to implementing adaptation strategies effectively.
The major policy options for significantly increasing water supply storage and distributional capacity include
the following: (1) creation of additional storage capacity, either in new shallow reservoirs analogous to the water
conservation areas or through deepwell injection into saline aquifers; (2) development of additional wellfields;
(3) use of desalinated brackish ground water; and (4) pumped drainage to more effectively recharge lower east
coast surficial aquifers (Rhoads et al. 1987; South Florida Water Management District 1982b). Policy options
for increased water use efficiency include: (1) water supply backpumping; (2) development of dual
potable/nonpotable water supply systems; (3) substitution of drought-resistant landscaping materials and
agricultural crops; and (4) institutional mechanisms for promoting the development and use of such systems.
Adaptive strategies pertinent to the maintenance of navigation capabilities along the Okeechobee Waterway
will be a function of any shifts in seasonal precipitation that may occur. A decrease in dry season rainfall may
require use of backpumping or increasing surface water storage capacity, either in the lake itself or in new
shallow-water storage facilities comparable to the current water conservation areas.
Potential increases in hurricane incidence and the rate of sea level rise will significantly affect the tradeoffs
to be considered in local government hurricane hazard mitigation strategies. Different areas will be subject to
different levels of potential damage. Public land acquisition programs and land development controls will need
to be modified. An array of structural responses has been identified for countering the effects of advancing sea
level which may be applicable in developed coastal areas. These include "soft" structural responses, such as beach
renourishment, and "hard" responses, such as groins, bulkheads, seawalls, revetments, levees, breakwaters, and
jetties (National Research Council 1987; Sorensen et al. 1984).
As noted above, wellfield relocation will be necessitated by increased saltwater encroachment due to sea
level rise, especially along the lower east coast. This option will be part of the larger mix of policy issues
concerning water supply if increased droughts also result from climate change. If shifts in precipitation regimes
yield a net increase in rainfall, it may be possible to counter the advance of saltwater mtrusion to some extent
with increased freshwater storage and maintenance of higher fresh ground water heads through canal recharge.
The predominant option for adapting to increased inland drainage and flooding problems due to elevated sea
level is likely to be a shift to pumped drainage. The capital and operating costs of such a strategy would be
substantial, and the tradeoffs considerable.
The immediate need for contending with the potential for increased tropical pest invasions in South Florida
is to conduct more research. Little work has been done to assess how climate change may create conditions for
survival and breeding of new pests that may be easily introduced in South Florida through natural and human
transport mechanisms.
PROSPECTS FOR ACTION
The water management district's capabilities to acquire, analyze, and act upon water resources and climate
change information is substantial. No formal effort has been made, however, to incorporate climate change into
the district's planning and decision making (Rhoads 1988b). Key individuals within the organization are mpniant
of the implications raised by climate change, but this level of awareness has not penetrated significantly through
the agency. The consensus among district personnel who are cognizant of potential climate rhangg impacts is
that the uncertain timing, direction, and magnitude of those impacts significantly constrains a concerted initiative
at this time. Major initiatives in water resource management in the state and by the district itself typically have
occurred in response to perceived crises (DeGrove 1988; Rhoads 1988b). It has been suggested that it will
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probably take a "well-defined, imminent crisis" to stimulate concerted action directed at contending with
change as well (Rhoads 1988b).
The U-S. Army Corps of Engineers, whose major presence in South Florida is through the Jacksonville
District, is primarily a reactive rather than proactive agency. The Corps' greatest adaptive capacities are in flood
control and coastal erosion control. Its involvement in water quality and water supply management in South
Florida has been recent and tentative. The Corps awareness of potential impacts of climate change also appears
to be recent and not significantly diffused through the organization at either the district or national levels.
The ranW»« of county and local governments to manage water resources or to adapt to climate change
are far less extensive. Their recognition of the potential impacts of climate change varies from none to very
simplified generalizations limited almost exclusively to sea level rise. Most officials acknowledge being aware
of the concern, but virtually all profess a lack of significant concern because of the perceived long-term nature
of the phenomenon and the greater urgency of other issues.
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CHAPTER 5
INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE:
COMPARISON OF SOUTHEAST CASE STUDIES
INTRODUCTION
Climate change is likely to alter natural systems in ways about which today's scientists can only speculate.
An increase in mean global temperature coupled with altered weather variability might induce numerous and
varied environmental changes from the species level through the ecosystem level. In both natural and managed
systems, for instance, altered climate could increase summer dryness and subsequently increase risks of Fires, pest
infestations, or drought events. Strategies designed to address any of the effects of climate change will depend
greatly upon the capability of institutions to develop and implement mitigation or adaptation steps that will foster
mutually beneficial interactions between society and environment.
This chapter assesses the degree to which public institutions possess the capacity to adapt to potential
climate change impacts and identifies specific organizational strengths and weaknesses that pertain to possible
climate change impacts in the Southeast. Information developed in each of the case studies (TVA, Apalachicola,
and South Florida) is evaluated against a set of criteria which form the basis for assessing institutional capacity
to adapt to climate change. The case study information is based upon hypothetical scenarios of future climate
change and subsequent impacts that primarily affect hydrologic systems. Accordingly, the comparative analysis
emphasizes water resources with further disaggregation into four distinct subcategories: water surplus, water
scarcity, water quality, and sea level rise. These findings are then expanded upon to assess the implications of
climate change for local, state, and national levels of government with recommendations offered for the Southeast
in general.
ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK
As climate change unfolds, its initial impacts upon the biophysical system are likely to affect climate-sensitive
resources which will, in turn, alter the distribution of socioeconomic benefits. Institutions can moderate climate
change impacts and the effects they might have upon sensitive social systems. Climate vulnerability can be
characterized as the degree to which social uses of specific resources are at risk, or might suffer damages from
potential climate change impacts. Therefore, vulnerability, in this sense, is a function of institutional capacity to
mediate potential climate change impacts on climate-sensitive natural resources.
The institutions of interest in each of the Southeast case studies comprise a varied array of public agencies
at the federal, state, and local governmental levels. The institutional composition in each case study reflects the
different criteria that establish the water resources management missions and responsibilities of individual public
agencies.
A major institution in the Southeast, the TVA is a federal agency that is unique in its purpose, organization,
and role in the Tennessee Valley as well as the United States. As the largest electric power utility in the nation,
it has commanded close attention from analysts for many years. However, the absence of comparable
organizations has limited the application of policy research findings. Yet, its technological leadership in power
production has provided many valuable lessons in energy and environmental policy.
The federal system of governance is well represented in the Apalachicola case study with agency involvement
at the local, regional, state, and national levels. The acknowledged importance of the oyster fishery to the local
and regional economies has motivated development of an intricate collaborative network of public institutions
in northwest Florida directed toward preserving the environmental quality of the river, estuary, and bay areas.
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The dominant institutions in the South Florida case study are the South Florida Wat.,
a substate agency, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. In sharp contrast to the AoaW^^fmentDlstrict.
South Florida hydrologic basin lies entirely within the boundaries of the Water MarnL»m»^?Study> the
region is highly populated with a growing economy. South Florida has also exDeriencerijL^fi!! , .ct' ^ the
alteration and environmental abuse in the past, and is the subject of an extensive nat^^tem^sto"6"131
Institutional Attributes
In order to gauge the vulnerability of case study regions to climate change, a set of a,.ai;tat;„
criteria was used to rank specific attributes of key organizations in parfr Gf (j,e stut«es / tlve. scoring
for each organization provides an index of overall institutional capacity to adapt to impacts Mi»i^i?i?lterSCOre
change scenarios. In view of data limitations and measurement constraints the histitiitiAnai i3^ ate
ordinally scaled. The evaluation methodology was applied consistently with nrior ^
definitions. F agreement on working
Key institutions in each case study were evaluated for 15 separate attributes, several of which
under common headings. Of primaiy interest are available financial resources and technical exoert' •^°U^ed
agency planning and mitigation options can be formulated and assessed. Since climate change imnarf Which
beyond the planning horizon of many agencies, sufficient financial resources are an imoort^t fa t 000,11
conduct of exploratory or anticipatory studies. Given the scope of potential climate rhJyi rt 016
scientific and technical expertise also is important to identify key issues and resolve uncertaintie«- t access.to
implications of potential impacts; and to develop mitigation or adaptation strategies that ar«» ww n° exa®"Ie
and politically feasible. socially,
Four attributes that address feasibility are related to the political, social, and legal factors that a r
responsibilities and limits of agency jurisdiction. The statutory authority or political power that I t ur
by legislative action includes federal, state, or local laws that enable an agency to achieve its ®,shed
geographic range in which agency activities are authorized addresses the ability of an asencv to cWpI P16
and manage programs that fall within a region and which allows rational water resources mnnnrrmi ni ? •
to be implemented effectively. Authority for regulatory enforcement reflects the degree to whichramnl °fes
agency goals can be routinely achieved. Public accountability is a measure of the institutional m
established by the agency to educate, coordinate, or communicate with the public about olannirw
making, and management actions taken by the agency that affect the public's overall welfare. sion
Responsiveness of an agency to mandated actions or short-term forecast climate variability is charart ¦
as either proactive (i.e., taking anticipatory action) or reactive (i.e., taking retroactive or compliance
These two attributes distinguish between agencies that employ environmental scanning or promote dewi™
of strategic planning capability within their separate policy subsystem or regulatory network and thr.s» whfrhj^
Technical information, which is key to the development of alternative strategies, is character!™^ u.
initiatives undertaken to acquire existing or new information and those that are undertaken to act uoon ami • J
information through such activities as forecasting, modeling, ami impart assessment. These measur^rfSh
admittedly gross, aggregate independent research activities with managerial or administrative Wormatf1"6
management and analysis. 0n
Institutional planning capacity is ranked both in relation to how tustonc climate information is ucn.i •
investment decisions for long-term planning and the ability of agencies to adapt to climate ®
information becomes available. Organizational coordination is assessed with respect to activities internal t
agency as well as external. Internal coordination refers to operations that ore interdepartmental jg scon»°^
conduct. External coordination encompasses networking or collaborative arrangements that
agencies or subgoveraments.
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Since climate change is a phenomenon that will increasingly command institutional attention and response,
awareness of the "greenhouse effect" or the ability of an agency to become aware of the greenhouse effect was
included as an important factor for assessing the overall capability of institutions to adapt.
Comparative Assessment of the Case Studies
Rankings of institutional attributes for each of the three case studies are shown in Tables 1-4, which include
separate scores for conditions of water surplus, water scarcity, water quality, and sea level rise, where appropriate.
Each attribute is ranked along a scale ranging from "Well Developed" (****) to "Not Developed" (*). Where
information is insufficient for scoring purposes, a "?" is used.
Institutional Capacity - TVA Reservoir System
Institutional capacity examined in the TVA case study is divided between power and nonpower operations.
As discussed in the case study, the TVA can be described as two separate organizations operating under one
board of directors. Power operations are underwritten by a separate financing authority and paid for by TVA
utility ratepayers. Achieving economic competitiveness with other utilities plays a key role in TVA strategic
planning. The recent corporate restructuring was undertaken at the behest of the new Board Chair in order to
stabilize utility rates and enhance TVA's ability to attract new customers.
Power operations score very well in financial resources under conditions of water surplus and scarcity as
well as for water quality. Expertise scores are high for both power and nonpower operations, except for
nonpower activities in times of water shortages.
Of the political/social/legal factors, TVA scores less well with respect to public accountability, an issue that
has been controversial for TVA in recent years. For water quality, TVA scores poorly in these attributes. This
is a result both of the omission of water quality as an explicit goal in the TVA Act as well as inadequate attention
given to the issue by Valley states. Accordingly, TVA scores poorly in institutional responsiveness to water
quality issues while attaining high rankings in proactive planning for both water surplus (its original mission) and
water shortage (as a result of its leadership role in recent droughts).
In the acquisition and utilization of technical information, TVA scores highest for water surplus and poorest
for water quality. In the last four years, TVA has demonstrated its competence in the acquisition and use of
information for water shortages, especially the most recent drought.
Reflective of its mandate, TVA has utilized historic climate variability in its planning and investment criteria
related to water surplus. Nonpower operations rank more highly than power operations on this attribute for
water quality conditions, but both power and nonpower activities score poorly under water shortage conditions.
Institutional Capacity - Aoalachicola River. Estuarv. and Bav
The overview of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change for the Apalachicola River, Estuary, and
Bay focuses on the Florida agencies with primary jurisdiction in the Apalachicola area, the Mobile District of
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Apalachicola Estuarine Research Reserve, and the local Franklin County
government. Pertinent climate change impacts include sea level rise and water shortage due to decreased flow
in the ACF River basin. Relevant Florida state agencies include the Department of Environmental Regulation,
Department of Community Affairs, Department of Natural Resources, Game and Freshwater Fish Commission,
and the Northwest Florida Water Management District.
The Florida agencies are well equipped to contend with the possible impacts of greenhouse gas-induced sea
level rise and water shortage. The agencies have a history of responding proactively to environmental issues
by: (1) protecting the ecosystems of the Apalachicola area through a combination of land acquisition programs
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Table i. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Surplus
INSTITUTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
folltLcillSoeltlIU|tl Factors
Responsiveness
CASK STUDIES
Key Organizations
Financial
Resources
Expertise
Statutory Regulatory
Authority/ Geographic Enforcement Public
Political Power Jurisdiction Authority Accountability
Proactive
Reactive
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Monpower Operations
Os 1
N South Florida:
U.S. Ar»y Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Hater Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties*
»**/**
***!**
***/*»
***/*• »**«/»»
(continued)
Rankings i
Hell Developed:
Hot Developed: *
Insufficient
Infornatlon: t
*For some Institutional attributes a range Is stated where multiple organisations
are Included In a single category, e.g.. Urban Coastal Counties.
I
O
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Table 1. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Surplus (continued)
INSTITUTIOHAL ATTRIBUTES
CASE STUDIES
Key Organizations
Technical Information
Acquisition Utilisation
Planning and
Investment Criteria
Based Upon Historic
Climate Variability
Organizational
Adaptation Addressed
by Current Planning
Organisational
Coordination
Internal External
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Nonpover Operations
South Florida:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Water Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties*
AAir* J **
?
****/**
T
****/**
T
«**/**
1
***
***/«*
7
Rankings »
Well Developed:
Hot Developed:
Insufficient
Information:
(continued)
****
***
**
*For some institutional attributes a range is stated where multiple organisations
are Included in a single category, e.g.. Urban Coastal Counties.
-------
Table 1- Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Surplus (continued)
IttST XTUTIOtt AL ATTRIBUTES
OS
KJ
CASK STUDIES
Key OrganizatIons
Or(>nl»t lonal
Awareness of Potential
Climate Change Impacts
Tennessee llvet Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Nonpover Operations
South Florida:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Water Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties*
Rankings:
Hell Developed: ****
INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITT TO
ADAPT TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
***
»*
*For some Institutional attributes a range Is stated where multiple organisations
are included in a single category, e.g.. Urban Coastal Counties.
Rot Developed:
Insufficient
Information:
s
-------
Table 2. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Shortage
INSTITUTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
Political/Social/Legal Factors
Responsiveness
CASE STUDIES
Key Organizations
Financial
Resources Expertise
Statutory Regulatory
Authority/ Geographic Enforcement Public
Political Power Jurisdiction Authority Accountability
Proactive
Reactive
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Nonpower Operations
Apal achlcola Estuary and Bay:
NOAA/Estuarine Reserve
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Mobile District
State of Florida
State Agencies
Apalachicola Local
Government
N
I
South Florida:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Water Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties1
***/**
***
****I***
****I**
****
***/**
***f**
(continued)
O
4>
Rank inns:
Weil Developed: ****
***
**
Not Developed: *
Insuff iclent
Information: ?
*For some institutional attributes a range is stated where multiple organizations
are Included in a single category, e.g., Urban Coastal Counties.
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Table 2. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Shortage (continued)
IHSTITUTIOHAt ATTRIBUTES
CASE STPDIES
Key Organizations
Technical Information
Acquisition Utilisation
Planning and
Investment Criteria
Based Upon Historic
Climate Variability
Organisational
Adaptation Addressed
by Current Planning
Organizational
Coordination
Internal External
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Monpover Operations
**** ***
**** ***
Ot
I
Is)
Vft
Apalachlcola Estuary and Bayi*
NOAA/Estuarlne Reserve
U.S. Aray Corps of Engineers
Mobile District
State of Florida
State Agencies
Apalachlcola Local
Government
South Florida:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Vater Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties4
Rural Counties*
***/«
7
****
***/«
7
*«*/*
r
**««/**
7
***/«
7
Rankings;
Well Developed: ****
***
*«
Not Developed} *
Insufficient
Information; f
(continued)
*For some institutional attributes a range Is stated where multiple organizations
are included in a single category, e.g.. Urban Coastal Counties.
¥
o
-------
Table 2. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Shortage (continued)
INSTITUTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
CASE STUDIES
Key Organizations
Organ!satlonai
Awareness of Potential
Climate Change Impacts
' INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITY TO
ADAPT TO
CLIMATE CHARGE
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Nonpower Operations
Apalachicola Estuary and Bay:
HOAA/Estuarlne Reserve
U.S. Army Corps o£ Engineers
Mobile District
State of Florida
State Agencies
Apalachicola Local
Government
v©
i
o
South Florida:
O
-------
Table 3. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Quality
1HSIITUTIOMAL ATTRIBUTES
FoUtUtlfSocltWLe|il Factors
Responsiveness
CASE STUDIES
Key Organisations
Financial
Resources Expertise
Statutory Regulatory
Authority/ Geographic Enforcement Public
Political Power Jurisdiction Authority Accountability
Proactive Reactive
OS
I
N
-4
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Ronpover Operation*
South Florida:
U.S. Amy Corps o£ Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Hater Hanaga-
¦cnt District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Count1«»*
*•*/** ***/»*
Ranfclnas:
Hell Developed!
**»
•*
Rot Developed: *
Insufficient
Intonation: I
(continued)
*For soae institutional attributes a range is stated where nultlple organisations
are Included In a single category, e.g., Urban Coastal Counties.
3
(ft
O
-------
Table 3. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Quality (continued)
INSTITUTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
CASE STUDIES
Key Organizations
Technical Information
Acquisition Utilization
Planning and
Investment Criteria
Based Upon Historic
Climate Variability
Organisational
Adaptation Addressed
by Currant Planning
OrganLzatlonal
Coordination
Internal External
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Konpover Operations
South Florida:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Water Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties*
#***
***/**
?
***/#*
7
***/**
T
***/**
r
*«*/**
t
Rankings:
Well Developed: ****
Hot Developed:
Insufficient
Information:
(continued)
For some institutional attributes a range is stated where multiple organizations
are included in a single category, e.g., Urban Coastal Counties.
-------
Table 3. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Water Quality (continued)
INSTITUTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
INSTITUTIONAL
CASE STUDIES Organisational CAPACITY TO
Awareness of Potential ADAPT TO
Key Organization* Climate Change Impact* CLIMATE CHANGE
Tennessee River Basin:
Tennessee Valley Authority
Power Operations
Nonpooer Operations
South Florida:
0.9. Arajr Carps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Hater Manage-
ment District
Brhaa Coastal Counties*
Kunklna*:
Hell Developed: «*»» *For some Institutional attributes a range is stated where multiple organisations
**• are included in a single category, e.g.. Urban Coastal Counties.
Rot Developed: *
Insufficient
Information: 1
-------
Table 4. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Sea Level Rise
INSTITUTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
Political/Social/Legal Factors
RcspoasUcncif
CASE STUDIES
Key Organizations
Financial
Resources
Expert ise
Statutory Regulatory
Authority/ Geographic Enforcement Public
Political Power Jurisdiction Authority Accountability
Proactive Reactive
Apalachicola Estuary and Bay:
NOAA/Estuarine Reserve
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Mobile District
State of Florida
State Agencies
Apalachicola Local
Government
O
I
v0
South Florida:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Uater Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties*
****
***/**
**
****
***/**
****
***/«*
t
*#*/**
***
Rankings t
Well Developed: ****
***
O Not Developed: *
Insufficient
Information: ?
*For some institutional attributes a range is stated where multiple organisations
are included in a single category, e.g., Urban Coastal Counties.
(continued)
-------
Table 4. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Sea Level Rise (continued)
XHSTITUTIOHAL ATTRIBUTES
CASK STUDIES
l«T Organizations
Technical Inloiutlon
Acquisition Utilisation
Planning and
Inrestn«nt Criteria
Based Upon Historic
Clliaate Variability
Organisational
Adaptation Addressed
by Current Planning
Organizational
Coo rdInstion
Internal External
9k
i
w
Apalachlcola Estuary and Bayt
HOAA/Cstuarlne Reserve
V.S. Any Corps of Engineers
Mobile District
State of Florid*
Stat* Agencies
Apalachlcola Local
Cover fuse nt
South Florida:
U.S. Ar»y Corps o£ Engineers
JtekwmvllU District
State of FloeIda
South Florida Hater Manage-
¦ent District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties*
«**•/**
T
****
***•/•*
T
»**•/•*
T
»**/**
r
Kanfclnas;
Vail Developed:
.•*» ¦¦
*«
Mot Developed; •
Insufficient
Information: T
(continued)
"For mm institutional attributes a range la stated where aultlple organisations
are included in a single category, e.g., Orban Coastal Counties.
2
<»
O
-------
Table 4. Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change Impacts Related to Sea Level Rise (continued)
INSTITUTIONAL ATTRIBUTES
O
o
CASE STUDIES
Key Organizations
Organisational
Awareness of Potential
Climate Change Impacts
Apalachlcola Estuary and Bay:
NOAA/Estuarlne Reserve
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Mobile district
State of Florida
State Agencies
Apalachlcola Local
Government
South Florida:
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Jacksonville District
State of Florida
South Florida Uater Manage-
ment District
Urban Coastal Counties*
Rural Counties*
Rankings:
Well Developed: ****
***
**
Not Developed; *
Insufflelent
Information: ?
***
** / *
*#/*
INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITY TO
ADAPT TO
CLXHATE CHANGE
CM
CO
l
aFor some Institutional attributes a range Is stated vhere multiple organisations
are Included In a single category, e.g., Urban Coastal Counties.
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Meo
, . rv Herniation: and (2) initiating the Interagency Management Committee to
Sfc Ke. « toy %*>">Fk>rida a°d bUfld °P "" leVel ^ teCh°"al eM,eI,iSe-
Both examples also speak Jo^-"££*22
specifically, their ln-touse e*^ttB cda ^ exj,ts in!ernally in each agency. Also, the Florida agencies are
coordination, relating to the p ments ^ states and other federal and local agencies. The 1983 ACF
involved in external collaborative affrang Florida, Alabama, and Georgia, and the Corps of Engineers,
, of Engineers has a weU-developed institutional capacity to adapt to climate
The Mobile District of the corps ns^ Corps is primarily a reactive rather than proactive agency,
change impacts related to sea ,e™ -nd management actions in response to congressional directives
however. It undertakes water resourc p rnments under authorized programs such as the beach
or initiatives from state'Jfu"^' neatest adaptive capacities are their in-house technical expertise and
renourishment program. The corps ^ . m6 erosion protection structural measures and their financial
experience relating to coastal tiooapr ua] &meSt structurai projects germane to its mission. Much of
resources. The Corps co-funds, win mc individual states had sole responsibility for financing,
this coastal protection work would not be ***_
_ ,ant ,a climate change-induced water shortages in the Apalachicola River
The Mobile District's capacity toaaapi ... factors ^ ^ public accountability. Until recently, the
is increasing. They rank high in the accountability problems in the Apalachicola region because of
Corps has had external <^*£ 4h Florida agencies, Franklin County government and the local
their indifference toward coordination wun ^ ^ ^ few years several top level Corps 0ffiaals
populace. However, this Rationtobgi building with local government and Honda agencies
haw recognized the necessity of coordinating planning, has begun to develop a more
STX Apalachicola £Z££ot*w multibuses and environmental vfm of the ACF
balanced perspective and awareness of the im^r tQ champion navigation on the Apalachicola River over
system However, the Corps sho™ ~ incrSd awareness of multiple uses and environmental values
Snmental «• of ta,esrattd
should enhance the Corp8 r lhe AMlachlcola National Reseacch Reserve ^e,.
A onmhination of institutional attributes oitn f« ^ jevej rise and water shortage is also growing,
that it capacity to adapt to climate ct^e impM has ^ institutional benefit of excellent
geographic jur ction h esem come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
.marv financial resources for the ^ t0 deal with declining budgets. The reserve has
The pnWjT agency that rece"*'y . ranacitv for utilizing external technical informatioa
Admiiustr^ion, isinta-hoa» t!"iS!S5Sw coordination and enhancing
a small staff, and thus, has .the reserve has de^Ioped
Despite its s®.^*f'lhe wai populace. With Uttles _ such ^ unjversity researchers, government
its accountability information from other existing educational programs about the
S5?Snc« of the am****"1
on the estuary. institutional capacity to adapt to climate change
... rnurltv government ranks low in ^ possesses excellent geographic jurisdiction
The local Frankta Co ^ ^ water shortage. financial resources and in-house
impacts related to both sea water shortages, ^ mechanisms to allow it to work closely with
brm level ,te impact. the local towmpeople of the
^sstfsssasr--
6-33
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Meo
Institutional Capacity - South Florida
The overview of institutional capacity to adapt to climate change for South Florida focuses on the South
Florida Water Management District, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and county governments in the region.
The assessment of state agencies included under the Apalachicola Estuary and Bay case study is applicable to
South Florida for the most part.
Awareness of the potential impacts of climate change is a major constraint across all of the institutions for
all four impacts. None of the institutions is ranked as well developed for this attribute. Only the South Florida
Water Management District is ranked as having a relatively high level of awareness for all four climate change
impacts. Institutional capacity appears adequate for potential water shortage, water surplus, and sea level rise
impacts, although the capacity is primarily that of the Water Management District in the case of water surplus
and shortage and the Corps of Engineers for sea level rise. Institutional adaptive capacity is least assured for
potential water quality impacts of climate change. This reflects the current fragmentation of responsibility and
authority for water quality management in the state. While recent trends suggest an increasing role for the South
Florida Water Management District, the district lacks sufficient regulatory authority at present.
The distinction between urban coastal counties and rural counties is principally a function of financial
resources and expertise, which in turn are largely a function of demographics. The urban coastal counties, includ-
ing Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Lee, are densely populated or rapidly growing. The rural counties, which
include Monroe, Collier, Hendry, and Glades, have much smaller populations and property tax bases, and lower
growth rates. With the exception of the Keys in Monroe County, these counties have not had to confront water
resource management problems of the magnitudes experienced by the coastal counties.
Detailed information was not collected for the rural counties as part of the case study. Thus, there is an
inadequate basis to fully assess their institutional capacities. Detailed information was collected for three of
the four urban coastal counties: Lee, Palm Beach, and Dade. As indicated by the mixed rankings in Tables 1-
4, there is a range of institutional capacities among these counties for some of the institutional attributes.
The South Florida Water Management District is exceptionally well equipped to contend with the possible
impacts of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, with the exception of sea level rise where its statutory
jurisdiction is limited. The direct effects of sea level rise in coastal areas on property, infrastructure, and public
services due to inundation and increased coastal storm impacts are outside the district's domain except where
those impacts are associated with the primary drainage system and water supply. Within this limited span of sea
level rise impacts, the district has well-developed adaptive capacity.
The district's ad valorem tax base, broad statutory powers, and extensive expertise provide an excellent
foundation for responding to climate change. The inter-organizational and intra-organizational boundary
spanning role of the district's Office of Resource Assistance, the use of matrix task forces for planning and
problem solving, and the organizationwide commitment to proactive consensus building will serve the district
well in contending with the potential impacts of climate change.
The only areas where the district's capacity is less than optimal are in water quality impacts and water
surplus. In the case of water quality, the district is just beginning to develop a significantly 'mtfasfd role as a
result of the 1987 State Surface Water Improvement and Management Act. Thus its expertise, data acquisition
and utilization, and planning are not as fully developed as for example, water shortage. The district's capaHlitirs
also are constrained by its limited regulatory power over water quality. Direct regulatory control of water
pollution sources is exercised primarily by the State Department of Environmental Regulation. Regulatory
control of land uses that may affect water quality through nonpoint sources is primarily the domain of county
and local governments.
The Water Management District's institutional capacity to adapt to water surplus impacts of climate change
are lunited only by the lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity of the flood control system to account
6-34
-------
for major changes in land use since design and construction of the system in the 1960s. Because a comprehensive
analysis of the system is planned over the next several years, this is only a short-term constraint.
Awareness of potential climate change impacts within the district is relatively high compared to many other
state and regional water management institutions. Key individuals within the organization have a sense of the
broad implications of climate change for water resources management in South Florida and information gaps
that must be filled to raise climate change to a higher level of priority in the district's planning and decision-
making process.
The information base for rating the institutional capacity of the Corps of Engineers is considerably less than
that for the South Florida Water Management District. South Florida is part of the jurisdiction of the
Jacksonville District. The rankings in Tables 1-4 generally reflect information on the Corps at the district level.
The Corps is primarily a reactive rather than proactive agency. It undertakes water resources planning and
management actions in response to congressional directives or initiatives from state, county, or local govern-
ments under authorized programs such as the beach renounshment program. The Corps' greatest adaptive
capacities are in those areas of water resources management where it traditionally has been involved in South
Florida: flood control and coastal erosion control. Its involvement in water quality and water supply
management in South Florida has been recent and tentative. The Corps' awareness of potential impacts of
climate change also appears to be recent and not significantly diffused through the organization at either the
district or national levels.
DISCUSSION
Case Study Findings
.. of case study institutions to adapt to climate change is ranked in the last column in
, ymvm LiU>V(lCl |S UM&
. t Developed"; the remainder all are less developed. Information is insufficient for
-BSKSSSSSKAw
. , shortage conditions (Table 2), in which lower scores are assigned local
A different pattern exists under water sn^ Corps 0f Engineers district responsible for South Florida.
government in Apalachicolai ttd » ^ ^^overaUinthe Apalaclucola c^e study as d^s the South
Florida's state agencies rat®a^r, S remaining agencies rank a little ower with the exception of South
Florida Water Management D£tn^ ^ inefficient information for evaluation.
Florida's rural counties, for wiucn uie
, t f quality conditions (Table 3). In sharp contrast to the TVA,
Only two case studies are evatoatad ror ^a superlatiVe capacity to adapt to climate
which J one Ite Cops U tow-
chanee impacts in this category.
change imp«u. f to sea level rise (Tab)e 4) is assessed for the Florida case studies
XfsEfl. Florida Wrtjer
load government, which scores a "Not
Florida's urban coastal counties are ran*
Developed." mmarv ooints discussed in the case studies. With respect to
t»Av underscore the sumraw>
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Meo
quality, responsibilities for water resources planning and management are fragmented vertically across multiple
levels of government and horizontally across multiple jurisdictions. Moreover, severe obstacles to practicing
coherent planning and management arise from inadequate data and financial resources, public apathy, and
traditional land use practices.
Successful adaptation in the Apalachicola case study is contingent to a large degree upon productive
interstate cooperation among Georgia, Alabama, and Florida for the overall Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint
River drainage basin. Florida's water management agencies are greatly constrained by planning and management
actions in the upper ACF drainage basin by the Corps and the other two states. The success of recent initiatives
among the three states and the Army Corps' Mobile District to protect the estuarine fishery resources reflects
the critical need to further integrate environmental information and basin wide planning into regional water
resources management.
Another key finding from the Apalachicola case study is the limited capabilities local governments have in
developing and managing critical resources. Despite the importance of fishery resources to local and regional
economies, a necessary role for the State of Florida is shaped by the need for greater technical experts, more
bureaucratic education on the potential impacts of climate change, more resources, and improvements in capital
infrastructure than can be provided by local governments. Moreover, without the mechanism available through
the Coastal Zone Management Act for establishing an estuarine research reserve, the overall quality of the
fishery resources would have been further imperiled.
Institutions in South Florida vary in the degree to which they carry out sound water resource management.
In contrast to the well-developed capacity of the South Florida Water Management District to coordinate its
activities with urban counties, the rural counties, such as Monroe County which includes the Florida Keys, have
remained reluctant to implement environmental plans. Despite designation as an Area of Critical State Concern,
Monroe County has sought to limit state authority and thwart state planning objectives.
Complementary Institutional Roles for Climate Change Adaptation
The case study results suggest that different levels of government may have particular roles in climate
change adaptive strategies that are best suited to their resources, powers, and jurisdictional authorities.
Coordination among public agencies at different levels of government is also essential. A proposed scheme of
appropriate local, state, and federal roles follows.
Local Governments
Coordinate or centralize (e.g., at the county level) the management of climate-sensitive natural
resources that are currently managed by subcounty governments and special districts (water supply
and drainage districts).
Integrate climate change adaptive strategies into the planning process with specific attention to land
and water use, economic development, capital (infrastructure) development, and natural hazard (e.g.,
hurricane, flooding) mitigation planning in cooperation with substate regional, state, and federal
agencies with complementary powers and jurisdiction (e.g., Florida water management districts, state
emergency management agencies, TVA, regional planning councils).
Revise regulatory mechanisms to effect the objectives of strategic planning for climate change
adaptation, especially in areas where local government jurisdiction is primary such as land use control.
Participate in the development and operation of a state-level information acquisition and utilization
network with substate regional, state, multi-state regional, and federal organizations for climate change
information pertinent to local government roles in climate change adaptation.
6-36
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Meo
Develop or amend educational programs to promote greater public awareness about climatic change
and its implications for society.
pat* Governments
Develop or enhance basinwide water resources management and planning capabilities within the
state.
rwlnn coordinating mechanisms with other states and appropriate federal agencies where drainage
bsSns extend beyond state boundaries or into major federal land holdings.
rw»in« the caoacitv to achieve statewide land and water management objectives through regional
" andkSl planning mid regulation that is consistent with state policies.
Promote conjunctive management of the quality and quantity of surface and ground water resources.
r rriinate statewide strategic planning for climate-sensitive resources (e.g., hurricane mitigation,
coastalerosion mitigation, flood protection, drought management) that involves substate regional and
local agencies.
„ , . maintain an information acquisition and utilization network, including the necessary
Develop ^ substate regional, state, multi-state regional, and federal organizations for
chmat^hange information and public education pertinent to state and substate government roles in
climate change adaptation.
. flinH research on climate-sensitive state resources needed to supply information for the
¦ Sp°°s0r («*. fain- ctoatteto stale ground wale, resources,
state-ieyei emu ^ sensitivity of major natural resource-based economic sectors, vulnerability of
coastal areas to accelerated sea level rise).
^federal ^wmment
with the states to develop a climate change information acquisition and utilization network,
EStte necessary technical expertise to assist with public education and awareness programs.
.. d research and demonstration projects to enhance the ability to predict and detect
Sponsor ana iuna regional level and to enhance development of planning and management
climate changes imp substate governments for climate change adaptation, including
strategies by ieoerai, «« ,
structural mitigation alternatives.
change research.
, „imnnrt the development of water resource management coordinating mechanisms
Encourage a^j"\^f0prjate federal agencies where drainage basins extend beyond state boundaries
3 S?r federal land holdings.
^plications fqr *fT fi"1ltheast
The case study fes®wc^dtS'aS^SouSS^region. Although any findings based upon toeeTcase
suggest several impUcatiom wr in generalizations appear consistent with the evidence. First,
studies are subject to exteitfi^fl
-------
Meo
water management districts and adopt similar guidelines and procedures where appropriate. The district
approach, based upon hydrologic regions and ad valorem taxing powers, provides a socially responsive and
environmentally sound basis for managing water resources. The major limitations to the WMD approach are
encountered in areas such as Apalachicola where much of the watershed lies outside the regional WMD's
jurisdiction. A notable exception to this approach is characterized by the TVA, which presently favors increased
use of basinwide management strategies for water quality enhancement.
A second implication for the Southeast concerns local government capacity. Apalachicola's primary
economic resource as well as its surrounding environment are likely to be severely damaged by potential climate
change impacts. With the demise of the oyster industry from heat stress and saline intrusion, the town of
Apalachicola will enter into yet another phase in its historical pattern of changing livelihoods. The distinction
in this case is that anticipatory plans and programs can be developed ahead of time, rather than remain
unprepared. In this regard, the state agencies have demonstrated a keen level of program planning and
coordination. For other locales similar to Apalachicola, Florida is well-equipped to undertake actions which
could minimize the negative impacts associated with climate change. For the Southeast in general, local
governments will be subject to similar threats. A prudent strategy for southeastern states to pursue would be
to develop and strengthen state-local government coordination and planning capabilities. Included in this list
would be measures for public involvement, acquisition and use of technical information by qualified professionals,
and a clear mandate to address issues germane to climate change.
The Apalachicola case study also highlights the importance of interstate coordination and cooperation for
developing coherent responses to climate change. In regions where drainage basins encompass more than one
state, coordination among and between water resource supply and demand activities is likely to become
increasingly important for adaptation.
Finally, the case study results reinforce a leading role for the federal government. Federal agencies such
as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers perform vital
and important functions in the case study regions. The TVA performs similar roles in its seven-state region.
Federal agencies can provide a Arm basis for research, sponsor demonstrations, and help public awareness. They
are also important as a credible source of detecting the onset of climate change impacts. As more detailed
studies of potential climate change impacts are initiated, federal agencies, such as the EPA, can be expected to
play a larger role in assisting states and regions conduct research, help promote and support public education
about climate change, plan alternative courses of action, and undertake structural-or nonstructural solutions.
6-38
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REFERENCES
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Management. Personal interview. March 8.
Boggs, D. 1986. Determining the Effectiveness of Efforts to Reduce Floods. Knoxville TN: Tennessee Valley
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Bolin, B., B. Doos, J. Jager, and RA. Warrick. 1986. (Eds.) The Greenhouse F.ffect. Climate rhanPP
Ecosystems. Scope 29. New York NY: John Wiley and Sons.
Brown, B. W. 1988. Director, Division of Air and Water Resources and Economic Development, Tennessee
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Chandler, W. 1984. Th» Mvth of TVA. Cambridge MA: BaUenger Publishing Company.
Coale, F. 1988a. Extension Sugarcane Agronomist, University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural
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interview, April 19.
Emanuel, K. 1987. "Dependence of Hurricane Intensity on Climate." Nature 326 (April).
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Miley, W. 1988. Apalachicola Research Reserve. Personal interview. May 3.
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Meo
Nielsen, N., R.D. Urban, and W.M. Seawell. 1987. "Climate Change and TVA Programs: The Need for
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A South Florida Perspective," in Proceedings of the Symposium on Climate Change in the Southern United
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interview, April 15.
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Sorenson, R.M., R.N. Weisman, and G.P. Lennon. 1984. "Control of Erosion, Inundation, and Salinity Intrusion
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Balance. PIO 269 1087. West Palm Beach FL: The District.
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UJS. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District. 1987. Plan of Studv: Apalar.h»m1a-Chattahn
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