m 904/9-76-015

LOUISVILLE
AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE
PLANNING AND ANALYSIS

JUNE 1976
FINAL REPORT

VOLUME I

AREA SOURCE EMISSION
INVENTORY AND PROJECTION

U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
REGION IV

AIR AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS DIVISION
ATLANTA, GEORGIA 30309

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Library Eisgse© IV
u* b^sKaeafad 1%0'isdioa Ageacy

345 Co^istlaiiid Street
Murta, Georgia 3036$ . ^^ijA

LOUISVILLE
AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE
PLANNING AND ANALYSIS

BOA CONTRACT 68-02-1380
TASK ORDER NO. 7

FINAL REPORT
VOLUME I

Submitted to

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region IV
1421 Peachtree Street, N.E.
Atlanta, Georgia 30309

Submitted by

Engineering-Science
7903 Westpark Drive
McLean, Virginia 22101

June 1976

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This air pollution report is issued by Region IV, Environmental Protection
Agency, to assist state and local air pollution control agencies in carrying
out their program activities. Copies of this report may be obtained, for a
nominal cost, from the National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port
Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151.

This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
Engineering-Science, McLean, Virginia, in fulfillment of EPA Contract
68-02-1380, Task Order 7. This report has been reviewed by Region IV, Air
Programs Branch, EPA and approved for publication. Approval does not signify
that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environ-
mental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial
products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

Region IV Publication No. EPA 904/9-76-015.

i

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ABSTRACT

The report gives the results of the work done by Engineering-Science,
Inc., in support of the maintenance analysis for the Louisville, Kentucky Air
Quality Maintenance Area, which is made up of Jefferson County, Kentucky, and
Clark and Floyd Counties, Indiana. This work fell into four stages: (1) up-
date of the 1973 baseline emission inventory provided by Jefferson County;
(2) allocation of the baseline year emission inventory to subcounty and/or Air
Quality Display Model grid squares; (3) projection of county or subcounty emis-
sion inventories to 1975, 1980, and 1985; and (A) allocation of the projected
emission inventories to subcounty and/or Air Quality Display Model grid squares.
This work was accomplished in accordance with procedures described in EPA's
various Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. Fifteen
categories of area source emissions were listed and projected for sulfur
dioxide and twenty-four for total suspended particulate.

ii

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION	1

CHAPTER II FUEL SURVEY	3

CHAPTER III 1973 BASE-LINE YEAR AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY	8

A: FUEL COMBUSTION	9

1.	Residential Fuel	9

2.	Industrial Fuel	]1

3.	Commercial and Institutional Fuel	12

4.	Internal Fuel Combustion	.14

13. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES	.IS

5.	Farm Tractors	15

6.	Small Gasoline Engines	jh

7.	Construction Equipment	Ih

8.	Railroads	17

9.	Vessels	J9

C.	ROAD VEHICLES	20

10.	Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles	(LDGV) 27

11.	Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicles	(HDGV) ?q

12.	Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles (HDDV)	30

D.	OTHER MOBILE SOURCES	31

13.	Aircraft	31

E.	SOLID WASTE	31

14.	On-Site Incineration	d

15.	Open Burning	37

F.	MISCELLANEOUS	38

16.	Structural Fires	38

17.	Frost Control	39

18.	Slash Burning	39

19.	Wild Forest Fires	AO

20.	Agricultural Burning	40

21.	Unpaved Roads	40

22.	Unpaved Airstrip Operations	/,3

23.	Tilling Activity	43

24.	Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock.	45

25.	Construction Activity	45

26.	Windblown Dust	46

27.	Process Loss	4g

28.	Paved Roads	57

G.	COUNTY SUMMARIES	58

iii

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)

Page

CHAPTER IV 19 73 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT	61

A.	FUEL COMBUSTION	61

1.	Residential Fuel	61

2.	Industrial Fuel	63

3.	Commercial and Institutional Fuel	64

4.	Internal Fuel Combustion	64

B.	OFF-ROAD VEHCILES	64

5.	Farm Tractors	64

6.	Small Gasoline Engines	65

7.	Construction Equipment	65

8.	Railroads	65

9.	Vessels	66

C.	ROAD VEHICLES	66

D.	OTHER MOBILE SOURCES	69

13.	Aircraft	69

E.	SOLID WASTE	69

14.	On-Site Incineration	69

15.	Open Burning	69

F.	MISCELLANEOUS	70

16.	Structural Fires	70

17.	Frost Control	70

18.	Slash Burning	70

19.	Wild Forest Fires	70

20.	Agricultural Burning	70

21.	Unpaved Roads	70

22.	Unpaved Airstrip Operations	70

23.	Tilling Activity	71

24.	Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock	71

25.	Construction Activity	71

26.	Windblown Dust	73

27.	Process Loss	73

28.	Paved Roads	73

CHAPTER V REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS	75

A.	POPULATION PROJECTIONS	75

B.	EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS	76

C.	LAND USE PLANNING	87

iv

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)

Page

CHAPTER VI COUNTY-WIDE AREA SOURCE EMISSION PROJECTIONS	88

A.	FUEL COMBUSTION	88

1.	Residential Fuel	88

2.	Industrial Fuel	92

3.	Commercial and Institutional Fuel	92

4.	Internal Fuel Combustion	92

B.	OFF-ROAD VEHICLES	97

5.	Farm Tractors	97

6.	Small Gasoline Engines	97

7.	Construction Equipment	97

8.	Railroads	101

9.	Vessels	101

C.	ROAD VEHICLES	103

D.	OTHER MOBILE SOURCES	107

13.	Aircraft	107

E.	SOLID WASTE	110

14.	On-Site Incineration	110

15.	Open Burning	116

F.	MISCELLANEOUS	116

16.	Structural Fires	116

17.	Frost Control	116

18.	Slash Burning	119

19.	Wild Forest Fires	119

20.	Agricultural Burning	119

21.	Unpaved Roads	119

22.	Unpaved Airstrip Operations	119

23.	Tilling Activity	120

24.	Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock	120

25.	Construction Activity	120

26.	Windblown Dust	121

27.	Process Loss	121

28.	Paved Roads	121

G.	COUNTY SUMMARIES	121

v

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)

Page

CHAPTER VII PROJECTED AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT 129

A.	FUEL COMBUSTION	129

1.	Residential Fuel	129

2.	Industrial Fuel	129

3.	Commercial and Institutional Fuel	130

4.	Internal Fuel Combustion	130

B.	OFF-ROAD VEHICLES	130

5.	Farm Tractors	130

6.	Small Gasoline Engines	135

7.	Construction Equipment	135

8.	Railroads	136

9.	Vessels	136

C.	ROAD VEHICLES	136

D.	OTHER MOBILE SOURCES	144

13.	Aircraft	144

E.	SOLID WASTE	144

14.	On-Site Incineration	144

15.	Open Burning	144

F.	MISCELLANEOUS	145

16.	Structural Fires	145

17.	Frost Control	145

18.	Slash Burning	145

19.	Wild Forest Fires	145

20.	Agricultural Burning	145

21.	Unpaved Roads	145

22.	Unpaved Airstrip Operations	145

23.	Tilling Activity	145

24.	Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock	146

25.	Construction Activity	146

26.	Windblown Dust	146

27.	Process Loss	146

28.	Paved Roads	146

vi

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Page

5

6

7

18

21

22

23

24

25

26

29

30

32

35

38

43

47

49

52

53

55

59

60

66

66

67

71

77

78

LIST OF TABLES

Title

FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - JEFFERSON COUNTY
FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - FLOYD COUNTY
FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - CLARK COUNTY

RAILROAD OPERATING DATA

OFF-ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSION SUMMARY
OFF-ROAD VEHICLE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSION SYMMARY

daily vmt by road class

1964 VEHICLE MIX AND VMT

HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK STATISTICS FOR KENTUCKY

1973 ANNUAL VMT BY VEHICLE CLASS AND ROAD CLASS

CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDGV

CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDDV

AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AND EMISSIONS

JEFFERSON COUNTY OPERATING INCINERATORS

STRUCTURAL FIRES AND LOSSES

TILLED CROPLAND (Acres)

CALCULATION OF CONSTRUCTION EMISSIONS

SMALL POINT SOURCES CONSIDERED AS AREA SOURCES
JEFFERSON COUNTY

1973 FUEL USE BY SMALL POINT SOURCES - JEFFERSON COUNTY

FLOYD COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS

CLARK COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS

AREA SOURCE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS SUMMARY

AREA SOURCE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS SUMMARY

1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT

1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL CITY

1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: SUBURBS

SUMMARY OF JEFFERSON COUNTY RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL,
AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT - 1973

COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS
PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT

vii

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LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd)

Table No.	Title	Page

V-3	AQMA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT EARNINGS AND FACTORS	83

V-4	JEFFERSON COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS	84

V-5	FLOYD COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS	85

V-6	CLARK COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS	86

VI-1	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM	90

RESIDENTIAL FUEL USAGE

VI-2	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL	91

FUEL USAGE

VI-3	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AREA SOURCE FUEL	93

DISTRIBUTION

VI-4	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM INDUSTRIAL	94

FUEL USAGE

VI-5	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL	95

FUEL DISTRIBUTION

VI-6	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL	96

AND INSTITUTIONAL FUEL

VI-7	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM FARM TRACTORS	98

VI-8	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM SMALL GASOLINE	99

ENGINES

VI-9	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION	100

EQUIPMENT

VI-10	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED RAILROAD EMISSIONS	102

VI-11	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM VESSELS	104

VI-12	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED ANNUAL TRAFFIC VOLUME	105

VI-13	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM	108

ROAD VEHICLES

VI-14	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S02 EMISSIONS FROM ROAD VEHICLES 109

VI-15	PROJECTED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS	111

VI-16	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF	112

PARTICULATES

VI-17	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF S02	114

VI-18	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM STRUCTURAL FIRES 116

VI-19	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM ON-SITE	117

INCINERATION

VI-20	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM OPEN BURNING	118

viii

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LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd)

Table No.	Title	Page

VI-21	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM 120

TILLING ACTIVITY

VI-22	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM 120

CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY

VI-23	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM PROCESS LOSSES 121

VI-24	BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM PAVED ROADS 122

VI-25	AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE	123

EMISSIONS - JEFFERSON COUNTY

VI-26	AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE	124

EMISSIONS - FLOYD COUNTY

VI-27	AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE	125

EMISSIONS - CLARK COUNTY

VI-28	AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO EMISSIONS	126

JEFFERSON COUNTY

VI-29	AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S02 EMISSIONS	127

FLOYD COUNTY

VI-30	AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO EMISSIONS	128

CLARK COUNTY

VII-1	GROWTH IN COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ESTABLISHMENTS	131

NORMALIZED TO 1973

VII-2	ASSIGNMENT OF GROWTH UNITS TO TRACTS	132

VII-3	ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION	137

EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE - JEFFERSON COUNTY 1975

VII-4	ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION	138

EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE - JEFFERSON COUNTY 1980

VII-5	ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION	139

EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE - JEFFERSON COUNTY 1985

VII-6	ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION	140

EQUIPMENT - FLOYD COUNTY

VII-7	ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION	141

EQUIPMENT - CLARK COUNTY

VII-8	DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS BY	142

ALLOCATION METHOD

VII-9	DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE S02 EMISSIONS BY	143

ALLOCATION METHOD

ix

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LIST OF FIGURES

Page

FIGURE IV-1	ALLOCATION WORK SHEET	62

FIGURE IV-2	SAPOLLUT SUBAREAS	68

x

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CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

Engineering-Science, Inc. is under contract to the Enviromental Protec-
tion Agency, Region IV to assist the Division of Air Pollution, Kentucky
Department for Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, the Division
of Air Pollution Control, Indiana State Board of Health, and the Jefferson County,
Kentucky Air Pollution Control District in the analysis phase of the air quality
maintenance program. One air quality maintenance area is involved, the Louis-
ville AQMA, consisting of Jefferson County, Kentucky and Floyd and Clark Counties,
Indiana. The maintenance area is identified for both particulate matter and
sulfur dioxide.

In general, Engineering-Science is responsible for the analysis of area
sources and the States for point sources. The Engineering-Science program is
divided into four activity areas:

1.	Update of the 1973 base-line year emission inventory.

2.	Allocation of the base-line year emission inventory to subcounty.
and/or AQDM grid squares.

3.	Projection of county or subcounty emission inventories to 1975,

1980, and 1985.

4.	Allocation of the projected emission inventories to subcounty
and/or AQDM grid squares.

This final report summarizes the work done which has resulted in the
completion of the load sheets for AQDM 1973 calibration, the 1973 NEDS update
and AQDM load sheets for 1975, 1980 and 1985. These have been forwarded to
the interested parties.

Throughout the project, wherever possible and to the degree possible,
we have carefully followed the instructions contained in EPA documents and
publications. In particular, we have relied on the methodologies contained
in the following:

o Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors - AP42.

o Guide for Compiling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory APTD-1135.

1

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o Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis.

Volume 7: Projecting County Emissions,
o Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis.

Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas,
o 40 CFR 51. Maintenance of National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

The Jefferson County Air Pollution Control District had completed a 1973
area emission inventory for their portion of the AQMA. For some categories
the results of this inventory were used in this report without modification.
In most categories, update and changes were indicated. These changes are
pointed out in this report.

2

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CHAPTER II

FUEL SURVEY

Annual fuel sales for gas, oil, and coal are reported by states in the
U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Mineral Industry Surveys
(MIS) series. After first removing fuel sales from the state total which
are accounted for under specific source categories, e.g., railroad, vessel
bunkering, and aircraft fuel, the remaining fuel sales can be converted to
Btus and allocated to the county by population:

Jefferson County:	x 355 x 10"^ = 762 x 10^ Btu/year

3,342,000

Floyd County:	x 102 x 10^ = 109 x 10^ Btu/year

j,jlo , DUO

Clark County:	x 102 x 10^ = 156 x 10"*"1 Btu/year

J y JXO J (JUL)

Allocation from state totals to county totals on a Btu basis is pre-
ferable to allocation by each individual fuel type because of the differing
fuel split among different areas. However, the population factor is only
appropriate for counties that are reasonably typical of the state commercial
and industrial character. Jefferson County might be considered typical;
Floyd and Clark Counties, on the other hand, would probably not be
typical of the average per capita consumption in Indiana, being less than
the average because of the concentration of energy intensive industry
elsewhere.

In an attempt to compensate for this unequal distribution of industry,
fuel use by type for all point sources in the State was provided by the
Indiana Division of Air Pollution Control. These point source totals were
converted to Btus and subtracted from the MIS totals and the remainder
allocated to counties by population:

^^The 1973 population estimates were provided by the Kentuckiana Planning and
Development Agency (KIPDA). Population estimates and projections are dis-
cussed in Chapter V.

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Floyd County:

57,200
5,316,000

13	11

x 62 x 10 = 67 x 10

Clark County:

81,500
5,316,000

13	11

x 62 x 10 = 95 x 10

A comprehensive fuel survey was made of all fuel dealers in the AQMA
in order to provide a firm basis for the fuel usage source categories.
Approximately 95% response was received from the letters mailed to each
dealer. The results of the survey are shown in Tables II-l through II-3.
These values of fuel consumption are the basis for calculating fuel usage
source category emissions. In addition a value of 0.0017 tons of wood was
assumed burned per dwelling unit-degree day as suggested in APTD 1135.

Based on the MIS-allocated total Btus the fuel survey accounted for
110%, 63%, and 93% for Jefferson, Floyd, and Clark Counties respectively.
On an area-wide basis the survey accounted for 104% of the MIS allocated
Etus.

4

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TABLE II-l

FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - JEFFERSON COUNTY

Residential	C/I	Industrial	Total

LPG (1,000 gal)

6,202

514

2,515

9,231

C. O

Natural Gas (10 ft )

28,576

19,091

18,773

66,440

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

10,378

23,129

36,132

69,639

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)

0

397

11,360

11,757

Bituminous Coal (tons)

7,628

21,331

80,243

109,202

Coke (tons)

0

0

57

57

Total (Btu)

317X1011

236xlOU

283xl0U

836X101-

Percent

37.9

28.2

33.9

100.0

Fraction of MIS total accounted for = x	=

762 x 10

5

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TABLE II-2

FUEL

SURVEY SUMMARY -

FLOYD COUNTY







Residential

C/I

Industrial

Total

LPG (1,000 gal)

3,088

151

61

3,300

6 3

Natural Gas (10 ft )

1,476

798

330

2,604

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

3,816

1,364

2,609

7,789

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)

20

20

76

116

Bituminous Coal (tons)

472

94

0

566

Coke (tons)

0

0

0

0

Total (Btu)

24X1011

llxlO11

7xl01L

42X1011

Percent

57.1

26.2

16.7

100.0

Fraction of MIS total accounted for = 	— = 0.63

67 x 10

In calculating the fraction of the MIS total accounted for, industrial
point sources listed below were subtracted from the fuel survey summary.
See Section 2 of Chapter III.

1. 13 x 10^ ft"^ of natural gas = 0.1 x 10^ Btu.

6

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TABLE 11-3

FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - CLARK COUNTY



Residential

C/I

Industrial

Total

LPG (1,000 gal)

4,585

229

425

5,239

Natural Gas (10^ ft"^)

1,802

1,277

3,956

7,035

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

4,095

3,777

1,694

9,566

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)

150

861

3,062

4,073

Bituminous Coal (tons)

150

150

0

300

Coke (tons)

0

0

0

0

Total (Btu)

29X1011

19x1011

49X1011

97x1011

Percent

29.9

19.6

50.5

100.0

Fraction of MIS total accounted for = 88 x ^0 _ 0.93

95 x 10

In calculating the fraction of the MIS total accounted for, industrial
point sources listed below were subtracted from the fuel survey summary.
See Section 2 of Chapter III.

1.

53 tons of coal

O.OxlO1

Btu

2.

284,000 gallons of distillate oil

0.4x101

Btu

3.

47,000 gallons of residual oil

0.1x101

Btu

4.

858 x 10^ ft"^ of natural gas

= 8.9X101

Btu



TOTAL

9.4xlOX

Btu

7

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CHAPTER III

1973 BASE-LINE YEAR AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY

The following paragraphs discuss the data requirements, data sources
and availability, emission factors, and the methodology for determining
the county-wide emission totals for the 28 area source emission categories
which are the responsibility of the contractor.

8

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A. FUEL COMBUSTION

1. Residential Fuel

Using the fuel totals from Chapter II county-wide particulate
emissions from residential .fuel usage were calculated as follows:



Fuel
Used

Emission. .
Factor

Emissions
(tons/year)

Jefferson County



3 (3)
1.85 lbs/10 gal '



LPG (1,000 gal)

6,202

5.7

Natural Gas (106 ft3)

28,576

10 lbs/106 ft3

142.9

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

10,378

10 lbs/103 gal

51.9

Bituminous Coal (tons)

7,628

16.4 lbs/ton

62.5

Wood (tons)

3,421

25 lbs/ton

42.8

Total





305.8

Floyd County



1.85 lbs/103 gal ^



LPG (1,000 gal)

3,088

2.9

Natural Gas (10 ft )

1,476

10 lbs/106 ft3

7.4

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

3,816

10 lbs/103 gal

19.1

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)

20

10 lbs/103 gal

0.1

Bituminous Coal (tons)

472

16.4 lbs/ton

3.9

Wood (tons)

1189

25 lbs/ton

14.9

Total





48.3

Clark County



1.85 lbs/103 gal(3)



LPG (1,000 gal)

4,585

4.2

Natural Gas (106 ft^)

1,802

10 lbs/106 ft3

9.0

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

4,095

10 lbs/103 gal

20.5

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)

150

10 lbs/103 gal

0.8

Bituminous Coal (tons)

150

16.4 lbs/ton ^

1.2

Wood (tons)

1,020

25 lbs/ton

12.8

Total





48.5

(1)

(2)

(3)

Source: AP 42 .

50% spreader stoker furnaces and 50% hand-fired units burning 6.4% ash coal.
50% propane, 50% butane .

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Using the fuel totals from Chapter II county-wide SC^ emissions were
calculated as follows:



Fuel
Used

% s(1)

Emission
Factor

Emission
(tons/year)

Jefferson County









LPG (1,000 gal)

6,202



0.014 lbs/103 gal

0.0

Natural Gas (106 ft3)

28,576



0.6 lbs/106 ft3

8.6

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

10,378

0.27

142 S lbs/103 gal

198.9

Bituminous Coal (tons)

7,6 28

2.0

38 S lbs/ton

289.9

Total







497.4

Floyd County









LPG (1,000 gal)

3,088



0.014 lbs/103 gal

0.0

Natural Gas (106 ft3)

1,476



0.6 lbs/106 ft3

0.4

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

3,816

0.26

142 S lbs/103 gal

70.4

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)

20

0.50

157 S lbs/103 gal

0.8

Bituminous Coal (tons)

472

2.00

38 S lbs/ton

17.9

Total







89.5

Clark County









LPG (1,000 gal)

4,585



0.014 lbs/103 gal

0.0

Natural Gas (106 ft3)

1,802



0.6 lbs/106 ft3

0.5

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)

4,095

0.23

142 S lbs/103 gal

66.9

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)

150

0.81

157 S lbs/103 gal

9.5

Bituminous Coal (tons)

150

2.00

38 S lbs/ton

5.7

Total







82.6

(1)

Weighted average as reported in fuel survey .

10

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2. Industrial Fuel

In Jefferson County the total industrial fuel inventory has been
included in either the point source inventory or the process loss category
discussed in Section 27 of this chapter.

In Floyd County point sources consumed 1,322,000 gallons of
6 3

distillate oil and 13 x 10 ft of natural gas. All of the oil was con-
sumed at the power plant and was procured from other than local sources.

Consequently, the only industrial fuel to be subtracted from the Floyd

6 3

County survey results is the 13 x 10 ft of natural gas.

In Clark. County point sources consumed 106,753 tons of coal,

47,000 gallons of residual oil, 3,484,000 gallons of distillate oil and
6 3

858 x 10 ft of natural gas. Of this 106,700 tons of coal were consumed
at the cement plant and 3,200,000 gallons of distillate at the Army Ammunition
Depot and were not included in the fuel survey totals.

The following fuels were subtracted from the fuel survey totals
in Clark County:

o Coal	- 0

o Residual Oil - 47,000 gallons
o Distillate Oil - 284,000 gallons

fs 1

o Natural gas - 858 x 10 ft
o LPG	- 0

Particulate emissions from this source category were calculated

as follows:	

Fuel Emission. . Emissions
			Used	Factor	(tons/year)	

Floyd County

LPG (1,000 gal)	61	1.75 lbs/103 gal	0.1

Natural Gas (106 ft3)	317	10 lbs/106 ft3	1.6

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	2,609	15 lbs/103 gal	19.6

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	76	23 lbs/103 gal	0.9

Total	22.2

^Source: AP-42 .

11

-------
Fuel
Used

Emission
Factor

Emissions
(tons/year)

Clark County

LPG (1,000 gal)	425

Natural Gas (10 ft )	3,098

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	1,410

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	3,015
Total

1.75 lbs/10 gal
10 lbs/106 ft3
15 lbs/103 gal
23 lbs/103 gal

0.4

15.5

10.6

34.7
61.2

SC>2 emissions from this source category were calculated as follows:

Fuel
Used

% S

Emission
Factor

Emissions
(tons/year)

Floyd County

LPG (1,000 gal)	61

6 *3

Natural Gas (10 ft )	317

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 2,609 0.26
Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	76 0.90

Total

Clark County

LPG (1,000 gal)	425
6 3

Natural Gas (10 ft )	3,098

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	1,410 0.33

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	3,015 0.90
Total

0.014 lb/10 gal	0

0.6 lb/106 ft3 0.1
142 S lb/103 gal 48.2
157 S lb/103 gal 5.4

53.7

0.014 lb/10 gal	0

0.6 lb/106 ft3 0.9
142 S lb/103 gal 33.0
157 S lb/103 gal 213.0
246.9

3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel

In Jefferson County there are six commercial and institutional

6 3

sources included in the point source inventory burning 236 x 10 ft of
natural gas, 152,000 gallons of distillate oil, and 4,121 tons of bituminous
coal. The quantities must be subtracted out of the fuel survey totals given
in Table II-l before calculating emissions from area commercial and institu-
tional fuel usage sources.

12

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There are no commercial or institutional point sources in Floyd
and Clark Counties. Emissions are calculated on the total fuel usages given in
Tables II-2 and II-3.

Particulate emissions from this source category were calculated
as follows:

Emission	Emissions

Fuel Used	Factor	(tons/year)

Jefferson County

LPG (1,000 gal)	514

Natural Gas (106 ft3)	18,855

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	22,977

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	397

Bituminous Coal (tons)	17,210
Total

Floyd County

LPG (1,000 gal)	151

Natural Gas (106 ft3)	. 798

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	1,364

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	20

Bituminous Coal (tons)	94
Total

Clark County

LPG (1,000 gal)	229

Natural Gas (106 ft3)	1,277

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	3,777

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	861

Bituminous Coal (tons)	150
Total

1.85 lbs/10"
10 lbs/106 ft

gal
3

15 lbs/10 gal
23 lbs/103 gal
16.0 lbs/ton(1)

1.85 lbs/10 gal
10 lbs/106 ft3
15 lbs/103 gal
23 lbs/103 gal
12.8 lbs/ton(2)

1.85 lbs/10 gal
10 lbs/106 ft3
15 lbs/103 gal
23 lbs/103 gal
12.8 lbs/ton (2)

0.5
94.3

172.3
4.6

137.7

409.4

0.1
4.0
10.2
0.2
0.6
15.1

0.2
6.4
28.3
9.9
1.0
45.8

^Spreader stoker furnace 8.0% ash.
(2)

Spreader stoker furnace 6.4% ash.

13

-------
SO^ emissions from

this source category were calculated as follows:

Fuel Used

Emission
Factor

Emissions
(tons/year)

Jefferson County

LPG (1,000 gal)	514

Natural Gas (10 6 ft"*)	18,855

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	22,977 0.25

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	397 0.90

Bituminous Coal (Tons)	17,210 0.80
Total

Floyd County

LPG (1,000 gal)	151

Natural Gas (106 ft3)	798

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	1,364

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	20

Bituminous Coal (tons)	94
Total

Clark County

LPG (1,000 gal)	229

Natural Gas (106 ft3)	1,277

Distillate Oil (1,000 gal)	3,777

Residual Oil (1,000 gal)	861

Bituminous Coal (tons)	150
Total

0.014 lbs/10 gal
0.6 lbs/106 ft3
142 S lbs/103 gal
157 S lbs/103 gal
38 S lbs/ton

0.014 lbs/10 gal
0.6 lbs/106 ft3
0.27 142 S lbs/103 gal
0.50 157 S lbs/103 gal
2.00 38 S lbs/ton

0.014 lbs/10 gal
0.6 lbs/106 ft3
0.23 142 S lbs/103 gal
0.81 157 S lbs/103 gal
2.00 38 slbs/ton

0.0
5.7
407.8
28.0
261.6
703.1

0.0
0.2
26.1
0.8
3.6
30.7

0.0
0.4
61.7
54.7
5.7
122.5

4. Internal Fuel Combustion

There is one known internal fuel combustion source not included in the

point source inventory. This is the Texas Gas Transmission Company, Jefferson-

6 3

town pumping station which used 123 x 10 ft of natural gas in 1973. With an

6 3

emission factor from AP-42 of 10 lbs/10 ft , the emissions are 0.6 tons/year of

6 3

particulates; at 0.6 lbs/10 ft SO^ emissions are negligible.

14

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B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES

5. Farm Tractors

The U.S. Department of Agriculture county extension agents provided
information concerning farm tractor number, gasoline/diesel split, and usage.
The number of LPG fueled tractors was considered insignificant. The informa-
tion is given below.

Jefferson - 3000 tractors

80% gasoline @ 150 gal/year
20% diesel @ 850 gal/year

Floyd - 700 tractors

80% gasoline @ 500 gal/year
20 % diesel @ 750 gal/year

Clark - 1400 tractors

80% gasoline @ 600 gal/year
20 % diesel @ 900 gal/year

15

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Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in Tables
III-2 amd III-3.

6.	Small Gasoline Engines

Fuel usage from small gasoline engines was estimated using the
factor 13 gal/persori-year suggested in Volume 7 of the Guidelines. The 1973
population figures provided by KIPDA are as follows:

Jefferson	717,600

Floyd	57,200

Clark	81,500

Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in Tables
III-2 and III-3.

7.	Construction Equipment

APTD-1135 and Volume 7 suggest a factor of 5,000 gallons of diesel
construction equipment fuel usage per nonbuilding construction employee (NBC).

g

On a state-wide basis, this amounts to 1.78 x 10 gal in Kentucky and

g

2.86 x 10 gal in Indiana. When compared to the total off-highway
diesel fuel consumption given in the MIS (3.78 x 10 in Kentucky and 4.10 x 10
in Indiana), it is apparent that the factor is inappropriate. In addition,
the value of 7.4 gal/person-year for all other diesel fuel consumption
suggested in Volume 7 appears too large. Consequently, the two source
categories were combined and calculated as follows:

County Total = State off-highway from MIS x ^ounty employee _ County
J	b J	State NBC employee	tractor

Nonbuilding construction employment is obtained from County Business Patterns.

7 12	498

Jefferson: 3.78 x 10 x 23	522 ~ 510»000 = 12>789,488 gal
7 468

Floyd: 4.10 x 10 x 57 2?2	- 105,000 = 230,033 gal
7 6^7

Clark: 4.10 x 10 x 5? 2?2	~ 252«000 = 204,017 gal

Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in Tables
III-2 and III-3.

16

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8. Railroads

The Jefferson County emission inventory for 1972 estimated fuel
usage within the county as follows:

Burlington Northern
Illinois Central
K&IT Railroad
Louisville and Nashville
Southern
Penn Central

24,570 gal

302,460
941,956
3,178,792
3,202,279
20,800

TOTAL

7,670,857 gal

For the 1973 emission inventory conducted by the Jefferson County Air Pol-
lution Control District (JCAPCD), using an 8.8% growth factor (MIS shows a
5.8% growth in railroad fuel usage for Indiana and 8.8% for Kentucky), es-
timated total fuel usage for the county was 8,345,892 gal or nearly 15% of
the state total reported in the MIS. It is difficult to determine if this
total was indeed consumed within the county or whether it was merely dis-
pensed within the county and much of it used elsewhere by road-haul loco-
motives.

Another approach might be taken based on railroad operating data.

These data obtained from the railroads and the Official Railway Guide are

shown in Table III-l.

Statistical Abstracts of the United States provides information on

fuel consumption per train mile. This value for 1972 was 9.0 gal/train-

mile. (Total train miles = 451 x 10^; fuel consumed = 4,071 x 10^ gallons.)

A study conducted by Southwest Research Institute provides a check on this

value, where it is estimated that 64.4 x 10 locomotive hours were used for

all road-haul service at 0.46 lb fuel/bhp hour with a load factor of 0.38. ,

451 x 10

At the nation-wide average speed of 20 mph, total train hours were 		 :

6	64.4

22.6 x 10 and locomotives/train were , = 2.8. Using the nation-wide

LI. o

average value for road-haul locomotive power, 2,278 hp, and the load factor,
a value for fuel consumption/train mile can be calculated:

2.8 loco/train x 2,278 bhp/loco x 0.38 x 0.46 lb fuel/bhp-hour _ 7 g gal

7.12 lbs/gal x 20 miles/hour	' train mi

This is reasonable because the total fuel consumption from the Abstracts
includes switch engine operations, auxiliary equipment, and probably some
space heating. Further, the SRI study estimated that 96% of locomotive fuel
was used in road-haul service and 4% in switching operations.

17

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In calculating fuel usage, we have used 8.0 gal/train mile for road
haul operations and 1.0 gal/train mile for yard operations. Fuel usage
for the K&IT RE. was taken from the 1972 inventory listed above and multiplied
by 1.088 and assigned to Jefferson County. Total K&IT RR fuel use for

i

Floyd and Clark counties was proportional to total train miles traveled in each
county. Values are listed below:

Jefferson = 1.088 x 941,956 = 1,024,848

F1°yd	= 1^x 1,024,848 = 272,722

0/\O Q

Clark	=	x 1,024,848 = 341,240

Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in
Tables III-2 and III-3. As can be noted, the total emissions are approximately
half those estimated in the updated 1972 emission inventory. This difference
was reconciled with the JCAPCD. It was agreed that the new estimates of fuel use
would be used in the new emission inventory.

TABLE III-l
RAILROAD OPERATING DATA



Train Miles per Day

Jefferson County



AMTRAK

27.5

Illinois Central

84.8

Louisville and Nashville/C&O

653.4

Southern

141.6

Penn Central

2.1

TOTAL

909.4

Floyd County



Southern/Burlington Northern

112.0

Louisville and Nashville/Milw.

130.0

TOTAL

242.0

Clark County



AMTRACK

60.5

Penn Central

24.3

Louisville and Nashville/Milw.

165.0

B&O

53.0

TOTAL

302.8

18

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9. Vessels

The 1972 emission inventory conducted by JCAPCD estimated that 819,000
gallons of diesel fuel were consumed in Jefferson County by riv&r-barge
traffic. This was increased by 5% for 1973, to 859,950, to account for
growth.

According to Waterborne Commerce of the United States, 1973, there
were 9,103,576 tons of river-borne traffic into or out of Louisville Port.
If the average trip length was 18.5 miles (this assumes that upbound and

g

downbound traffic were equal), there were 1.68 x 10 ton miles of commerce.
At 590 Btu/ton mile^ and 140,000 Btu/gal, this traffic would consume
709,754 gallons of fuel. This, of course, does not include through traffic
which is included in the total of 859,950, and is judged to be a better
estimate of fuel consumed.

In order to account for fuel consumed on that stretch of the river
outside Jefferson County, but bordering Clark County, the Jefferson County
fuel must be increased in proportion to total length of river within the
AQMA to that in Jefferson County:

ly1! x 859,950 = 1,320,139

This total is allocated to the five counties bordering the river in
accordance with the length of river in each. In arbitrary units of length:

Jefferson x 1,320,139 = 422,444 gal

Floyd	x 1,320,139 = 118,813 gal

Clark	x 1,320,139 = 396,042 gal

18

Oldham — x 1,320,139 = 237,625 gal

Harrison	x 1,320,139 = 145,215 gal

Fuel usage and emissions from this source category for Jefferson, Floyd,
and Clark Counties are summarized in Tables III-2 and III-3.

Based on values of 500 and 680 Btu/ton-mile reported in The Effect of
Fuel Price Increases oil Energy Intensiveness on Freight Transport, RAND
Corporation, 1971, and Energy Intensiveness of Passenger and Freight
Transport Modes, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1973, respectively.

19

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The numbers of gasoline recreational vessels registered in the three
counties were obtained from state boat registration data:

Jefferson

23,070
1,836
2,631
27,537

Floyd

Clark

Total

According to the Kentucky Department of Transportation, Boating Safety
Enforcement Division, approximately 10% of these boats regularly operate on
the Ohio River, and few are trailored in from other areas. It was further
estimated by the Division that about 30% of this number of Federally docu-
mented recreation-size boats operated on the river. Because of the size of
the boats each would probably use more than the 160 gal/year suggested
in APTD-1135, or say 240 gal/year.

Total fuel consumption = 27,537 x 0.10 x 1.3 x 240 = 859,154 gal.

Fuel usage and emissions for this source category are summarized in Tables
III-2 and III-3. Allocation to counties is made in the same way as diesel vessels.

C. ROAD VEHICLES

Total daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by road class for the three-
county area for 1970 and predicted VMT for 1995 were obtained from Vogt,

Sage and Pflum, Inc., a Cincinnati Consulting firm which has worked on a
number of projects in the area. The 1995 VMT projections were made with
SAPOLLUT, a traffic model developed by the U.S. Department -of Transportation,
Federal Highway Administration. These projections are from the latest run of
the model and are based on trip tables updated in 1970. The Kentucky Depart-
ment of Transportation plans no further update for two or three years.

Linear interpolation was used to estimate the 1973 data. These data are shown
in Table III-4.

20

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TABLE III-2

OFF-ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSION SUMMARY

Fuel Use
(103 gal)

EF

(1)

(lbs/10 gal)

Emissions
(tons/year)

Jefferson County

Gasoline farm tractors
Diesel farm tractors
Small gasoline engines
Construction diesel
Road-haul locomotives
Rail-yard operations
Diesel vessels
Gasoline Vessels
TOTAL
Floyd County

Gasoline farm tractors
Diesel farm tractors
Small gasoline engines
Construction diesel
Road-haul, locomotives
Rail-yard operations
Diesel vessels
Gasoline Vessels
TOTAL
Clark County

Gasoline farm tractors
Diesel farm tractors'
Small gasoline engines
Construction diesel
Road-haul locomotives
Rail-yard operations
Diesel vessels
Gasoline Vessels
TOTAL

360
510
9,329
12,789
2,657
1,357
422
275

280
105
744
230
707
361
119
77

672
252
1,060
204
884

452
396
258

8.0

45.7

10.8
26.1
25.0
25.0

105.0
0.0

(2)

(3)

(A)

8.0

45.7

10.8
26.1
25.0
25.0

105.0
0.0

8.0

45.7

10.8
26.1
25.0
25.0

105.0
0.0

1.4
11.7
50.4
166.9
33.2
16.9
22.2
0.0
302.7

1.1

2.4
4.0
3.0
8.8

4.5

6.2
0.0

30.0

(1)	Source: AP-42.

(2)	10% 2-stroke engines, 90% 4-stroke engines.

(3)	Mean of all equipment types.

(4)	From AP-42, Section 3.2.3 dated 2/72. The newer revision dated 1/75
has no emission factor for particulates.

21

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TABLE III-3

OFF-ROAD VEHICLE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSION SUMMARY

Fuel Use

EF

(1)

Emissions

(10 gal) (lbs/10 gal) (tons/year)

Jefferson County

Gasoline farm tractors
Diesel farm tractors
Small gasoline engines
Construction diesel
Road-haul locomotives
Rail-yard operations
Diesel vessels
Gasoline vessels
TOTAL
Floyd County

Gasoline farm tractors
Diesel farm tractors
Small gasoline engines
Construction diesel
Road-haul locomotives
Rail-yard operations
Diesel vessels
Gasoline vessels
TOTAL
Clark County

Gasoline farm tractors
Diesel farm tractors
Small gasoline engines
Construction diesel
Road-haul locomotives
Rail-yard operations
Diesel vessels
Gasoline vessels
TOTAL

360
510
9,329
12,789
2,657
1,357
422
275

280
105
744
230
707
361
119
77

672
252
1,060
204
884
452
396
258

5.31
31.2
5.26
31.15
57.0

32.9
27.0
6.4

(2)

(3)

(4)
(4)

5.31

31.2
5.26
31.15
57.0
32.9
27.0
6.4

5.31
31.2
5.26
31.15
57.0
32.9
27.0
6.4

1.0
8.0
24.5

199.2
75.7
22.3

5.7
0.0

337.3

0.7
1.7
2.0
3.6

20.1
5.9
1.6
0.2

35.8

1.8

3.9
2.8

3.2
25.2

7.4

5.3
0.8

50.4

(1)	Source: AP-42.

(2)	10% 2-stroke engines, 90% 4-stroke engines.

(3)	Mean of all equipment types.

(4)	The JCAPCD inventory for 1972 determined an average sulfur content of
0.231%. This value has been verified with the K&ITRR and used for all
rail yard fuel usage. A value of 0.4% sulfur in fuel from AP-42 was
used for road-haul fuel usage.

22

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TABLE III-4
DAILY VMT BY ROAD CLASS

Class

1970

1973

1995

Freeway

2,901,333

3,602,949

8,748,137

Arterial

4,892,469

5,112,784

6,728,431

Local

2,573,545

2,877,241

5,104,346

TOTAL

10,367,347

11,592,975

20,580,914

An additional source of VMT was the original 1964 comprehensive trans-
portation study, which, in addition, provided data on heavy-duty vehicle
(HDV) and light-duty vehicle (LDV) mix. However, the road classification
system varied between the two data sources. These data are given in Table
III-5.

23

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TABLE III-5

1964 VEHICLE MIX AND VMT

Functional
Classification

Total
Daily VMT

% by Vehicle Type
LDV	HDV

Collector

Urban
Rural

690,000
525,000

96.6
94.9

3.4
5.1

Arterial

Urban
Rural

2,104,000
631,000

93.1
92.1

6.9
7.9

Major Street

Urban
Rural

567,000
835,000

89.7
89.2

10.3
10.8

Freeway

Urban
Rural

1,416,000
302,000

89.7

71.8

10.3
28.2

TOTAL

7,070,000

Combining collector and major streets into the local service class
and calculating the weighted average mix gives the following results:

Freeway

		 (10.3 x 1,416,000) + (28.2 x 302,000)

HDVMT =	1,718,000	" • 4/°

LDVMT =

= 86.6%

Arterials

lir.niT (6.9 x 2,104,000) + (7.9 x 63,000) _

HDVMT =	2,735,000	~ 7"1/o

LDVMT =

92.9%

24

-------
Local Service

	 (3.4 x 690,000) + (5.1 x 525,000)

HDVMT =	2,617,000

. (10.3 x 567,000) + (10.8 x 835,000) „
+	2,617,000	" /,b/°

LDVMT =	=92.4%

The LDVMT/HDVMT mix from the 1964 data is applied to the SAPOLLUT
output to derive the 1973 VMT by HDV/LDV split.

The 1972 Census of Transportation provides information on the split
between heavy-duty diesel vehicle (HDDV) and heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
(I1DGV) . These data are shown in Table III-6.

TABLE III-6
HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK STATISTICS FOR KENTUCKY

Vehicle Type	106 VMT	HDDV (%)	106 HDDVMT

Single Unit 2-Axle	886	0.4	3.5

Single Unit 3-Axle	174	19.8	34.5

Combination 3-Axle	27	29.0	7.8

Combination 4-Axle	150	31.1	46.7

Combination 5-Axle	433	75.6	327.3

TOTAL	1,670	419.8

L 1 Q O

Total % HDDV = , x 100% = 25.1%
1 • o /U

The information contained in Tables III-4 through III-6 is combined to
produce Table III-7.

25

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TABLE 111-1



1973 ANNUAL VMT BY VEHICLE CLASS AND ROAD

CLASS



(106 VMT)





Class

LDVMT

HDGVMT

HDDVMT

TOTAL

Freeway

1,139

132

44

1,315

Arterials

1,734

99

33

1,866

Local Service

970

60

20

1,050

TOTAL

3,843

291

97

4,231(1'

This compares with the earlier 1973 estimate made by the JCAPCD
of 4,295 x 10 VMT and to a 1972 estimate made by KIPDA of 3913.6 VMT.
The primary difference in the earlier estimate and this one is in the
HDGVMT/HDDVMT split. In the earlier study it was determined that 7%
of HDV was diesel-powered and this value was assumed to represent the
VMT split. In this study the estimate was based on VMT split rather than
vehicle split. The higher value reflects the greater number of miles
driven per year by HDDV as opposed to HDGV. It was agreed by the JCAPCD
that the correct value probably lies between the two extremes, but that
the more conservative 25.1% value should be used for the 1973 emission
inventory. Since no different values are available for the projection
years this conservative approach is warranted.

26

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10. Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles (LDGV)

Emissions from this source category are calculated using the
emissions factors from AP-42: 0.54 g/mile for particulate matter and 0.13
g/mile for SO2. The latest revision, Revision 5 dated April 16, 1975,
draft to AP-42 has added a new road vehicle emission factor class: light-
duty gasoline-power trucks, defined as trucks less than 8,500 lbs, gross
vehicle weight. The particulate emission rate for this new class is the
same as for the new automobile class and the old LDGV class, 0.54 g/mile.
However, the SO2 emission factor has been raised from 0.13 g/mile to 0.18
g/mile based on fewer miles/gal for the new class.

There is no data available from which the VMT for the light truck
class can be calculated. However, it is known from the 1972 Census of Trans-
portation that 89.2% of trucks less than 10,000 lbs are pickup or panel
types. A greater percent of those less than 8,500 lbs would be pickup or
panel. These types have similar engines and operating characteristics
as do automobiles; consequently they should have similar emission charac-
teristics .

Furthermore, the VMT by the new class is only a small percentage
of the VMT by automobiles. It is believed that insignificant differences in
total SO2 will result from retaining the old single classification.

Another revision to AP-42 applies to the use of unleaded fuel both
with and without catalytic converters. The widespread use of unleaded fuel,
which reduces exhaust particulate emissions from 0.34 g/mile to 0.05 g/mile
did not take effect until 1974 and can be safely and conservatively ignored
for the 1973 inventory. However, this will have to be taken into consider-
ation for the years of projection.

27

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Total emissions for the AQMA are as follows:

„ . . , . 0.54 x 3843 x 106 r .
Particulates: ——		 = 2285.5 tons/year

S02:

454 x 2000

0.13 x 3843 x 10
454 x 2000

550.2 tons/year

Allocation to census tracts is made by the methods described in
Chapter IV, Section C and summed for county totals.

Particulate :

Jefferson County
Floyd County
Clark County

SO,

Jefferson County
Floyd County
Clark County

1986.6 tons/year

86.1	tons/year
212.8 tons/year

478.3 tons/year
20.7 tons/year

51.2	tons/year

28

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11. Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicles (HDGV)

Emissions from this source category are calculated using the emission
factors from AP-42: (0.91 + 0.20T) g/mile for particulates, where T is the
number of tires divided by 4, and 0.36 g/mile for SO2.

The mean number of tires can be calculated from the data in Table III-6
and is given in Table III-8. The particulate emission factor is

O I O

0.91 + (0.20 x	= 1.32 g/mile

TABLE III-8

CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDGV

Vehicle TvDe

106 HDGMT

No. Tires

10^ Tire Miles

Single Unit 2-axle

882.5

6

5,295.0

Single Unit 3-axle

139.5

10

1,395.0

Combination 3-axle

19.2

10

192.0

Combination 4-axle

103.3

14

1,446.2

Combination 5-axle

105.7

18

1,902.6

Total

1,250.2



10,230.8

10 230 8
Mean No. Tires = 1*250*2 =

Total emissions for the AQMA are as follows:

Particulate:	^ = 423.0 tons/year

454 x 2000

0.36 x 291 x 106 , .
2:	454 x 2000	 = 115 *4 tons/year

Allocation to counties is made by the method described for LDGV.
Particulate :

Jefferson County - 368.7 tons/year
Floyd County - 14.9 tons/year
Clark County - 39.4 tons/year

S°2

Jefferson County - 100.7 tons/year
Floyd County - 4.1 tons/year
Clark. County - 10.7 tons /year

29

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12. Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles (HDDV)

Emissions from this source category are calculated using the emission
factors from AP-42: (1.30 + 0.20T) g/mile for particulates and 2.8 g/mile
for SC^.

Calculation of mean number of tires is shown in Table III-9. The particu-
late emission factor is

1.30 + (0.20 x 16!65) = 2.13 g/mile
4

TABLE III-9

CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDDV

f\	6

Vehicle Type 10 HDDMT No. Tires	10 Tire Miles

Single Unit 2-axle 3.5 6	21.0

Single Unit 3-axle 34.5 10	345.0

Combination 3-axle 7.8 10	78.0

Combination 4-axle 46.7 14	653.8

Combination 5-axle 327.3 18	5,891.4

Total 419.8	6,989.2

6,989.2 _ ,,

Mean No. Tires = —419~~8 ~

Total emissions for the AQMA are as follows:

„ i j_ 2.13 x 97 x 106	r ^ ,

Particulate: ,...	.		= 227.5 tons/year

454 x 2000

SO • 2.8 x 97 x 106	tons/vear

2* 454 x 2000	^.1 tons/year

Allocation to counties is made by the method described for LDGV.

Particulate :

Jefferson County - 198.3 tons/year
Floyd County	- 8.1 tons/year

Clark County	- 21.2 tons/year

S02:

Jefferson County - 260.6 tons/year

Floyd County	- 10.6 tons/year

Clark County	- 27.9 tons/year

30

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D.	OTHER MOBILE SOURCES

13.	Aircraft

Aircraft operating data were obtained from FAA reports for the four
statistical categories for which data are collected: air carrier, air taxi,
military, and general aviation. These categories were further broken down
into subcategories by information provided locally by airport managers, airline
operating schedules, and landing fee reports.

The following assumptions have been made based on best available
information, primarily that gathered by the JCAPCD.

MediunwRange Jet - 78% 2 engine

18% 3 engine
4% 4 engine

Air Taxi	- 66.7% turbo-prop

33.3% piston transport

General Aviation - 10% business jet

5% turbo-prop
5% piston transport
1% helicopter
79% piston

Operating data and emissions are summarized in Table 111-10.

E.	SOLID WASTE

14.	On-Site Incineration

Information concerning the location and operating characteristics
of on-site incinerators was obtained from JCAPCD in the case of Jefferson
County and from the Indiana Division of Air Pollution Control in the cases of
Floyd and Clark Counties.

31

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TABLE 111-10
AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AND EMISSIONS









1

Particulate

Sulfur Dioxide



Operations/

No. of

LTOs

EF

Emission

EF

Emission



Year

Engines

(lbs/LTO-eng)

(lbs/yr)

(lbs/LTO-eng)

(lbs/year)

STANDIFORD AIRPORT















Air Carrier

59,270













Jumbo Jet



4

0

1.30

0

1.82

0

Long-Range Jet



4

593

1.21

2870.1

1.56

3700.3

Medium-Range Jet



2.26

25,436

0.41

23615.3

1.01

58174.3

Turbo-Prop



2

3,556

1.10

7823.2

0.40

2844.8

Air Taxi

5,209













Piston Transport



1.5

868

0.56

729.1

0.28

364.6

Turbo-Prop



2

1,736

0.20

694.4

0.18

625.0

Military

5,646













Piston



1

84 7

0.28

237.2

0.14

118.6

Jet



2

1,976

0.31

1225.1

0.76

3003.5

General Aviation

46,623













Business Jet



2

2,331

0.11

512.8

0.37

1724.9

Turbo-Prop



2

1,166

0.20

466.4

0.18

419.8

Piston Transport



2

1,166

0.56

1305.9

0.28

653.0

Helicopter



1

233

0.25

58.3

0.18

41.9

Piston



1

18,416

0.02

368.3

0.014

257.8

TOTAL STANDIFORD AIRPORT









39906.1



71928.5

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TABLE 111-10 (cont'd)

AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AND EMISSIONS









Particulate

Sulfur Dioxide



Operations/

No. of

LTOs

EF

Emission

EF

Emission



Year

Engines

(lbs/LTO-eng)

(lbs/yr)

(lbs/LTO-eng)

(lbs/year)

BOWMAN FIELD















Air Carrier

84













Jumbo Jet



4

0

1.30

0

1.82

0

Long-Range Jet



4

0

1.21

0

1.56

0

Medium-Range Jet



2.26

37

0.41

34.3

1.01

84.5

Turbo-Prop



2

5

1.10

11.0

0.40

4.0

Air Taxi

2,603













Piston Transport



1.5

434

0.56

364.6

0.28

182.3

Turbo-Prop



2

868

0.20

347.2

0.18

312.5

Military

1,689













Piston



1

169

0.28

47.3

0.14

23.7

Helicopter



1

676

0.25

169.0

0.76

513.8

General Aviation

293,285













Business Jet



2

14,664

0.11

3226.1

0.37

10851.4

Turbo-Prop



2

7,332

0.22

3226.1

0.18

2639.5

Piston Transport



2

7,332

0.56

8211.8

0.28

4105.9

Helicopter



1

1,466

0.25

366.5

0.18

263.9

Piston



1

115,848

0.02

2317.0

0.014

1621.9

TOTAL BOWMAN FIELD









18320.9



20603.4

HAP's AIRPORT















General Aviation

18,250













Piston



1

9,125

0.02

182.5

0.014

127.8

TOTAL JEFFERSON COUNTY (tons/year)







29.1



46.3

TOTAL CLARK COUNTY (tons/year)







0.1



0.1

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In Jefferson County there are 58 currently operating incinerators, as
listed in Table III-ll, for which 1973 operating data are available. These are
in addition to an average of 106 incinerators which were operating in 1973 for
which firm operating data are not available. For the latter it was estimated
by the JCAPCD that each was operated 6 days per week with an average charge of
250 pounds. In general these were older single-chamber and multichamber units
which did not meet regulatory specifications. It was suggested by the JCAPCD
that the emission factor for single-chamber incinerators from AP-42, 15 lbs/ton
for particulates and 2.5 lbs/ton for SO2, would be appropriate for these older
units. Emissions are calculated to be:

106 x 250 x 6 x 52 x 15			

Particulates:	2,000 x 2,000	= 31.0 tons/year

SO : 106 x 250 x 6 x 52 x 2.5	tons/year

2	2,000 x 2,000

Total emissions from this source category (the sum of those above and those
from Table III-ll) are 64.7 tons/year of particulates and 17.1 tons/year of SOi.

An accurate count of incinerators for Clark County was available from
the County Health Department. There were 22 inu]tichamber units operating

in 1973 with size and operating schedules comparable to those in Table III-ll.
Assuming a charge of 161 tons/year (the averape charge from Table III-ll) and
an emission factor of 7 lbs/ton, emissions are:

Particulates:	* qqq* = 1^.4 tons/year

SV 1612,000'2,1

Emissions for "Floyd County were estimated by population proportion
from those in Clark County:

Particulates: g^'gQQ x 12*4 = 8"7 tons/year

S02; ffJiS * 4'4 " 3'X

34

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No.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

TABLE III-ll
JEFFERSON COUNTY OPERATING INCINERATORS

Charge	Emissions (tons/year)

Location	Type	(tons/year)	Particulates S02

1501 Lexington Road

MC

31.2

0.11

0.04

510 E. Chestnut

MC

Emergency only

insi

gnificant

8th & Liberty

MC

728.0

2.55

0.91

3612 Brownsboro Road

MC

145.6

0.51

0.18

2000 Nomis Place

MC

327.6

1.27

0.46

2701 Grassland Drive

MC

26.0

0.09

0.03

4000 Oaklawn Drive

MC

6.3

0.02

0.01

10615 National Turnpike

MC

5.2

0.02

0.01

Farm Valley at Grade Lane

MC

249.6

0.87

0. 31

4703 Almond Ave

MC

68.3

0.24

0.09

7483 Dixie Highway

MC

182.0

0.64

0.23

415 Cart Walnut

MC

182.0

0.64

0.23

410 South 5th Street

SC

65.0

0.23

0.08

209 E. Main Street

MC

78.0

0.27

0.10

4148 Taylor Blvd.

MC

72.8

0.25

0.09

3822 Cave Run Road

MC

291.2

1.02

0. 36

3232 Bardstown Road

MC

218.4

0.76

0.27

337 Byone Street

MC

313.4

1.10

0.39

1001 Breckinridge Lane

MC

308.5

1.08

0.39

5015 Shelbyt-ille Road

MC

156.0

0.55

0.20

4208 Bardstown Road

MC

468.0

1.64

0.59

2225 Taylorsville Road

MC

163.8

0.57

0.20

217 E. Chestnut

MC

26.0

0.10

0.03

4025 Poplar Level Road

MC

191.1

0.67

0.24

4917 Dixie Highway

MC

4.5

0.02

0.01

810 Barrett Avenue

MC

436.8

1.53

0.55

East Brown Lane

P

52.0

0.21

0.0

5011 Poplar Level Road

MC

72.8

0.25

0.09

600 S. Fourth Street

MC

147.9

0.52

0.18

35

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32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

TABLE III-ll (cont'd)

Charge	Emissions (tons/year)

Location	Type	(tons/year)	Particulates S0„

622 S. Tenth Street

MC

641 Baxter Avenue

P

323 E. Chestnut

P

150 S. Fifth Street

MC

1830 S. Third Street

MC

315 E. Broadway

P

1860 Arlington Avenue

SC

4008 Crittenden Drive

MC

6626 Southside Drive

MC

1373 Belmar Drive

MC

1313 St. Anthony's Place

MC

1114 S. Fourth Street

MC

501 S. Fourth Street

MC

2900 Magazine

MC

2301 S. Third Street

P

3428 S. Preston

MC

3414 Cave Run Road

MC

8611 Terry Lane

MC

720 Locust Lane

MC

2368 Frankfort

MC

1300 Lydon Lane

MC

4454 Shively Center

MC

3426 Preston Highway

MC

5338 S. Third Street

MC

81615 Preston Highway

MC

1250 Bardstown

MC

5701 S. Preston

MC

5607 Preston Highway

MC

4900 Shelbyville Road

MC

109.2

0. 38

0.14

45.5

0.18

0.0

4.1

0.02

0.0

19.5

0.07

0.02

54.6

0.19

0.07

1.8

0.01

0.0

7.8

0.06

0.01

608.4

2.13

0.76

13.0

0.05

0.02

31.2

0.11

0.04

365.0

1.28

0.46

364.0

1.27

0.46

500.0

1.75

0.63

26.0

0.20

0.03

0.1

0.0

0.0

31.2

0.11

0.04

156.0

0.55

0.20

78.0

0.27

0.10

78.0

0.27

0.10

78.0

0.27

0.10

78.0

0.27

0.10

78.0

0.27

0.10

124.8

0.44

0.16

93.6

0.33

0.12

93.6

0.33

0.12

156.0

0.55

0.20

156.0

0.55

0.20

364.0

1.27

0.46

800.8

2.80

1.00



33.71

11.91

36

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15. Open Burning

Open burning is closely controlled in Jefferson County. Until mid-
October 1973 a permit system allowed open burning of yard debris and leaves. After
that date such burning was banned. The permits issued for the first 8-1/2 months
of 1973 are not available. However, an estimate of 2,250 permits for this period
has been made from records of an earlier year. In addition, there were 142 vio-
lations or complaints of open burning. Further, there were 76 authorized bonfires
in 1973. Fire training included the burning of 23 houses and 8 automobiles and
pullman cars.

to the JCAPCD estimated that 80,000 tons of refuse of all types were burned in the
county in 1973, nearly all resulting from land clearing and construction activity.
Based on the emission factor from AP-42 of 17 lbs of particulates per ton of
wood or refuse burned, a total of 680 tons/year of emmisions is estimated.

SO2 emissions from this source category are negligible.

Open burning was prohibited in the Indiana counties except for agricul-
tural burning and other classes of burning operating under a variance. These
variances generally applied to backyard incineration where refuse collection was
not available. For these two counties we have used the factor from APTD 1135 of
0.5 lbs/person-day and the emission factors from AP-42 for municipal refuse:

Floyd County

A comprehensive study of waste disposal in Jefferson County provided

80,000 x 17
2,000

= 680 tons/year

Particulates:

0.5 x 57,200 x 365 x 16
s:	2,000 x 2,000

= 41.8 tons/year

SO • 0-5 x 57,200 x 365 x 1

2*	2,000 x 2,000

= 2.6 tons/year

37

-------
Clark County

0.5 x 81,500 x 365 x 16

Particulates: 	0 nnn	0 nnn	 = 59.5 tons/year

2 ,000 x 2,000	J

_ . 0.5 x 81,500 x 365 x 1 _ .

2' ~ 2,000 x 2,000	= 3*7 tons/year

Ari attempt was made to conduct a solid waste material balance. It was
determined that 2.77 lbs/person-day of solid waste was disposed of by landfill.
On-site incineration consumed another 0.10 lbs/person-day. This falls far
short of the generally accepted 5.5 lbs/person-day solid waste generation value
and if accepted would indicate that 2.63 lbs/person-day were disposed of by open
burning. These results are similar to those of an in-depth study of solid waste
for the Indianapolis area. It is believed that the 0.5 lbs/person-day open
burning rate from APTD 1135 is more representative of the situation in Clark and
Floyd Counties.

Clark County authorities report that 180,000 tons of driftwood are burned
each year. Such burning does not occur elsewhere in the AQMA. Emissions from
this burning are:

180,000 x 17 	 . ,	„ . „

	^ qqq—= 1,530.0 tons/year of particulates

Total particulate emissions in Clark County are then 1,589.5 tons/year.

F. MISCELLANEOUS

16. Structural Fires

The number of structural fires and dollar loss figures were provided
by the offices of the State Fire Marshals. These data are listed in Table

III-12.

TABLE 111-12
STRUCTURAL FIRES AND LOSSES

County	No. Fites Fires/1,000 pop.^	Loss ($)

Jefferson	1,101	1.5	4,405,651

Floyd	111	1.9	640,623

Clark	105	1.3	645,056

(1) As compared to the nation-wide average of four structural fires/
1,000 population as given in APTD-1135.

38

-------
The loss in Jefferson County is the equivalent of 126 single family
dwellings at $35,000 per dwelling, excluding the price of the lot but including
furnishings. This is the estimated cost of a 1,500 square foot house and
furnishings provided by the appraiser for First Federal Savings and Loan. Such
a dwelling would include:

10,840 board feet of lumber = 791 ft3

5,380 ft2 of 3/8" plywood = 168 ft3

3

TOTAL	959 ft

3

At a mean density of 35 lbs/ft , this is equivalent to 16.8 tons/house
plus four tons of furnishings.

AP-42 provides a particulate emission factor of 17 lbs/ton of wood
burned. SO^ emissions are negligible.

Total particulate emissions from structural fires, calculated by
this method are given below:

Jefferson County

17 lbs/ton x 20.8 tons/house x 126 houses/year

2,000 lbs/ton	= 22-3 tons/year

The emission factor based on dollar loss is 10.12 lbs/$l,000 loss.

Floyd County

10.12 x 641 „ „ .

—27000—= 3-2 tons/year

Clark County

10.12 x 645 „ „ .

	2~~000	 = tons/year

17.	Frost Control

Emissions from this source category were zero in 1973 in all
counties. In both Floyd and Clark, the practice of burning tires for
frost control was discontinued when equipment for control by irrigation
was installed.

18.	Slash Burning

Slash burning is not practiced in this area. Disposal of waste
resulting from land clearing operations is considered under the open burning
source category.

39

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19. Wild Forest Fires

There were no wild forest fires in 1973 in either Floyd or Clark

There were three forest fires in Jefferson County in 1973 burning a

total of 20 acres. Using the factor of 9 tons/acre of burned material and
an emission factor of 17 lbs/ton from AP42, total particulate emissions are
calculated to be:

20.	Agricultural Burning Agricultural burning is not practiced
in this area.

21.	Unpaved Roads

The Floyd and Clark County Commissioners' offices provided data
concerning the number of miles of unpaved roads in those counties. The
Jefferson County Works Department provided a list of unpaved roads, from
which unpaved road miles were determined from county road maps. Totals
by county are listed below:

In Clark County, ADT for representative rock roads was available.
In Floyd County, an estimate of average ADT was made by the Commissioner's
office. Little road information was available from Jefferson County. In

Counties.

20 x 9 x 17
2000

= 1.5 tons/year

Jefferson County - 33.4
Floyd County - 76 miles
Clark County - 203 miles

calculating emissions from unpaved roads, the following ADT have been used
based on the information provided by county authorities.

Jefferson County

ADT

Miles

Fountain Avenue
Hiawatha
Washburn
All Others

250
250

250
15C

0.46
0.33
0.31
32.30

Floyd County - all roads 45

Clark County - all roads 105

40

-------
An emission factor for dirt roads was determined by the methods
outlined in the EPA Publication 450/3-74-037, "Development of Emission
Factors for Fugitive Dust Sources."

where EF is the emission factor (lbs/vehicle mile), s is the silt content
of road surface material (%), and S is the vehicle average speed (mph).

a more realistic cutoff value for truly suspended particulates would be
nearer 30 um, 60% of the mass, the equation was modified by that factor.
Furthermore, as suggested in the reference, emissions would not occur on
the days with precipitation 0.01 inches. The resulting modified equation
is:

The formula suggested is:

This equation estimates the factor for particles <_ 100 pm. Since

EF = 0.60 36l~ d 0.81 s

jo J

where d is the number of days with precipitation _> 0.01 inches.

Using the following parameters:

s = 12%, crushed stone road
S = .30

d = 120

EF = 0.60

365 - 120
365

0.81 x 12 x 30
30

= 3.9 lbs/vehicle-mile

41

-------
This emission factor equation is applicable to road speeds between 30 and
50 mph and is used without adjustment in the cases of Floyd and Clark Counties
where the average speed on unpaved roads is estimated to be 30 mph. In
Jefferson County, on the short municipal street blocks involved, speeds are
estimated at 20 mph. According to AP-42 this results in a reduction in the
emission factor to 1.8 lbs/vehicle-mile.

Both Floyd and Clark Counties have dust repression programs in operation
which consist of frequent and thorough treatment of the rock roads with
oil. AP-42 suggests that such programs would be 50% effective in reducing
dust.

Particulate emissions resulting from this source category are calculareH he!"™-.
Jefferson County

1.8 x 365
2,000

[(1.1 x 250) + (32.3 x 150)] = 1,681.9 tons/year

Floyd County

0.5 x 3.9 x 76 x 45 x 365
2,000

= 1,217.1 tons/year

Clark County

0.5 x 3.9 x 203 x 105 x 365
2,000

= 7,585.5 tons/year

42

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22.	Unpaved Airstrip Operations

There are no unpaved airstrips in Jefferson or Floyd Counties.

Hap's Airport in Clark County has a single asphalt runway with a gravel
taxiway parallel to it. The scale of operations at the airport would call
for general use of this taxiway when the airport is being fully used, esti-
mated at 25% of the time. With 9,125 LTOs" per year, the taxiway would be
employed 2,281 times.

Assuming a 2,000-foot landing rollout or taxi into take-off
position, an emission factor of 5.8 lbs/mile (the unpaved road emis-
sion factor equation not modified for rainy days) results in 1.7 tons/year
emissions:

2'281 -jSt x 2'000 Vio * TJso "l/£t * 5-8 * 2^0 tons/lb = 2-5 tons/"r

23.	Tilling Activity

Acreage farmed by crop for each county was estimated for 1973 by
the county agents. These have been checked against data compiled in the 1969
Census of Agriculture and are in agreement as close as would be expected.

Table 111-13 shows the county agent's estimates.

TARIFF, TT.I-13
TILLED CROPLAND (Acres)

Crop

Jefferson

Floyd

Clark

Tobacco

220

85

700

Corn

A, 700

2,600

12,000

Soybeans

4,000

850

18,000

Small Grains

1,700

1,250

5,000

Truck Crops

250

375

1,400

TOTAL

10,870

5,160

37,100

43

-------
All crops, with the exception of tobacco, are tilled twice;
there is no fall plowing and chemical weed control is generally practiced.
Tobacco is tilled three times.

EPA Publication 450/3-74-037, "Development of Emission Factors
for Fugitive Dust Sources," provides a method for estimating emission fac-
tors (lbs/acre) for tilling operations for particles _< 30 pm:

EF.1'12 sfe>

(PE/50)2

where s is the silt content of the surface soil (%), S is the implement
speed (mph), and PE is the Thornthwaite precipitation-evaporation index.
Parametric values used in the equations are:

s = 48% (silty loam soil)

S = 3.0 mph
PE = 111

1.12 x 48 x 3.0 x (50)2 c nc ,
EF = 	=	 = 5.95 lbs/acre

(111) x 5.5

Applying this emission factor and the data given earlier (acreage
tilled and tilling schedule) permits calculation of total annual emissions.

Jefferson County

5.95 x 10,650 x 2 . 5.95 x 220 x 3 _ „ .

	mSo	 + —Ooo	65 •3

Floyd County

5.95 X 5,075 x 2	5.95 x 85 X 3 _ tons/year

2,000	2,000

Clark County

5.95 x 36,400 x 2	5.95 x 700 x 3 =	tons/year

2,000	2,000

44

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24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock

There are seven quarrying operations in the three-county area: three
in Kentucky and four in Indiana. All are included in the point source inventories.
25. Construction Activity

EPA Publication 450/3-74-037, "Development of Emission Factors
for Fugitive Dust Sources," recommends that an emission factor of 1.2 tons/
acre-month of active construction sites be used as an upper value, i.e.,
appropriate for application in arid areas with watering for dust control.

In an attempt to define the value somewhat better, the wind erosion equa-
tion was applied.

E = AIKCL'V'
s

where E = suspended particulate fraction of wind erosion losses of
tilled fields, tons/acre/year

A = portion of total wind erosion losses that would be measured
as suspended particulate, estimated to be 0.025

I = soil erosion, tons/acre/year

K = surface roughness factor, dimensionless

C = climatic factor, dimensionless

L' = unsheltered field width factor, dimensionless

V1 = vegetative cover factor, dimensionless

The following values were taken from the above reference:

I = 46 (silty loam soil)

K = 0.5 the minimum value. The surface roughness factor was developed
for erosion from farmland. A construction site would be rough
compared to farmland.

C = 4.5
L' = 0.5

V' = 1.0 no vegetative cover

E =1.29 tons/acre-year
s

With the assumption of 20% effectiveness of control by watering
and an exposure period of three months,

EF = 1-29 x 0-80^x 3 x 2000 = 51g lbs/acre-year

45

-------
Another approach is to modify the arid area emission factor for
Las Vegas (1.2 tons/acre-month) by the Louisville-Las Vegas ratio of climatic
factors. On an annual basis:

.3

W

C = K -

PE2

9.7-

LV

"LO

= 325.5

8.9"

111

where W is the wind	speed and PE is the Thornthwaite precipitation-evapora-
tion index.

_	1.2 x 3 x 2,000 ,, /

EF = 	325 5 	 = 22 lbs/acre-year

In calculating total construction activity emissions, we have
selected an emission factor of 22 lbs/acre-year for residential construction
and 220 lbs/acre-year for all other construction. Table 111-14 shows the method
of calculating emissions by county using these emission factors.

26. Windblown Dust

This source category applies to dust lost from aggregate storage
piles. Most aggregate storage piles outside those maintained at active
quarries are temporary in nature with no historical record of their existence
or volume. Consequently, the base-line year inventory is difficult to recon-
struct. One 1973 storage activity has been determined-a storage pile in the
Jefferson County inventory which has a working capacity of 50,000 tons. In
addition, there are a few sand and gravel storage operations along the river.
These, however, are washed aggregate and are wet in storage and thus, their
emissions would be minimized.

AP-42 provides this method of estimating emissions from aggregate
storage piles:

E = -0,33
(PE/100)

where E is the emission factor (lbs/ton) and PE is the Thornthwaite

46

-------
TABLE 111-14
CALCULATION OF CONSTRUCTION EMISSIONS



KY

IN

Jefferson

Floyd

Clark

Contract Construction
Employment

49,176

82,557

16,727

583

826







ky(2)

in(2)

Jeff.(3)

Floyd(3)

Clark(3)

Contract Value 10^ Dollars











Residential
Non-Residential
Non-Building
TOTAL

672
378
427
1,477

1,188
829
482
2,499

229
129
145
503

8
6
3
17

12
8
5
25



IT . (4)
Factor

Jefferson

Floyd

Clark

Acres of Construction

Residential
Non-Residential
Non-Building
TOTAL

8A/10^$
2.7A/10,$
25A/10 $

1,832
348
3,625
5,805

64
16
75
155

96
22
125
243



Factor
(lbs/acre)

Jefferson

Floyd

Clark

Total Emissions (tons/year)

Residential
Non-Residential
Non-Building
TOTAL

22
2 20
220

20.2

38.3
398.8
457.3

0.7
1.8
8.3
10.8

1.1
2.4
13.8
17.3

(1)	Source: County Business Patterns, 1973.-

(2)	Source: Statistical Abstracts, 1974.

(3)	Apportioned from state totals in accordance with contract construc-
tion employment.

(4)	Source: Development of Emission Factors for Fugitive Dust Sources.

47

-------
precipitation-evaporation index. Total emissions are:

Jefferson County: —0_i_33— x	=	tons/year

(111/100) 2>uuu

27. Process Loss

This source category includes those known process loss point sources
which are not included in the point source inventory because the source
strength was below that required for the definition of a point source.

In the case of Jefferson County the information was provided
in three categories:

o Process emissions - particulates only
o Process and boiler emissions - particulates and SC^
o Boiler emissions - particulates and SC^

A list of all such sources is provided in Table 111-15. All of the SO,, and
part of the particulate emissions should properly be included in fuel usage
categories. However, because of the known locations of the sources it is
more accurate and convenient for the emissions from both process loss and
fuel usage to be combined and considered in this section. Fuel burned by
these sources is given in Table 111-16.

48

-------
TABLE 111-15

SMALL POINT SOURCES CONSIDERED AS AREA SOURCES
JEFFERSON COUNTY

Process Emissions
(Tons/year)

Source No.

Address

Part

so2

1

215

Central

4

0

2

4000

Tower Road

1

0

3





6

0

4

6220

Strawberry Lane

2

0

5

905 Magnolia

4

0

6

1400

S. Hancock

3

0

7

1802

Portland

4

0

8

2336

S. Floyd

1

0

9

2417

Data

1

0

10





1

0

11

1540

S. 9th

6

0

12

1340

S. Shelby

8

0

13

1405

Durrett

2

0

14

3025

W. Madison

2

0

15

715 :

E. Gray

1

0

16

600 :

Bergman St.

1

0

17

900 :

Baxter

7

0

18

800 1

N. 27th Street

4

0

19

1201

River Road

1

0

20

1313

S. 13th

9

0

21

3400

Fern Valley

2

0

22

4301

Produce

3

0

23

1247

S. 12th

3

0

24

3008 Magazine

2

0

25

16th

& Bernheim

3

0

26

1951 Appleton

2

0

27

931 :

S. 15th

2

0

49

-------
rce

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

SO

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

1

4

1

1

6

0

0

0

0

1

7

0

0

Address	Part

4

1000	Hamilton	1
4436 Poplar Level	6
260 S. Eiler	2
4005 Crittenden	3
3026 River Park	1
8318 Grade Lane	4

Process and Boiler

4451 Robards Lane	6

6200 Camp Ground	2

1001	Standiford	1
223 N. 15th	1
845 S. 9th	3
1860 Mellwood	4
1600 Crums Lane	9

1

3212 Woodland	3

4053 Westport Road	2

Meadowlawn	0

836 S. 12th	1

4730 Crittenden	4

Boilers

4662 Jennings Lane	1

340 Ohio Street	1

5200 Crittenden	2

831 S. 1st Street	1

1507 S. 2nd Street	0

4701 Allmond	5

6th and Broadway	3

120 W. Lee	2

50

-------
Source No.

Address

Part SC>2

56

1350 S. 15th

0

57

1800 Bluegrass

3

58

216 S. 5th

2

59

1867 Frankfort Ave.

2

60

1200 Story Ave.

1

61

2215 Portland Ave.

3

62

3701 Frankfort Ave.

5

63

643 S. 6th

2

64

4401 Bells Lane

4

65

426 W. Bloom

4

66

Zorn Avenue

2

3

12

2

0

0

3

0

0

6

8

3

51

-------
TABLE 111-16
1973 FUEL USE BY SMALL POINT SOURCES

- JEFFERSON COUNTY



Industrial

Commercial/
Institutional

Residual Oil (10^ gal)

0

0

Distillate Oil (10^ gal)

1,808

00
CO

Natural Gas (10^ ft^)

2,716

1,760

Coal (tons)

489

0

In the cases of Floyd and Clark Counties the	lists of small point

sources and the resulting emissions were provided	by the Division of Air

Pollution Control, Indiana State Board of Health.	These are given in
Table 111-17 and 111-18.

Emissions from this source category are	summarized below:

Particulates	SO2

Jefferson County: 186.0 tons/year	61.0 tons/year

Floyd County: 131.0 tons/year	0 tons/year

Clark County: 61.5 tons/year	0 tons/year

52

-------
TABLE 111-11

FLOYD COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS

Source No.

Address

Part.
T/Yr.

S02
T/Yr.

Process
Weight

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

E. 12th & McBeth
New Albany

709 E. 4th
New Albany

2050 Indiana Ave.
New Albany

E. 10th Street
New Albany

Floyd Knobs

617 Cherry St.
New Albany

601 E. 4th
New Albany

417 Pearl St.
New Albany

Silver St.
New Albany

Stone & East
New Albany

1732 Lincoln
New Albany

14th & Dewey
New Albany

1502 Beeler St.
New Albany

26 E. 6th St.
New Albany

42
5
0

0

1
1

5

0

0

26

4

4

9

3

0

0

0

0

0
0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10 Bu./Yr.
2,000 T/Yr.

7 T/Day Sawdust

41902 cu.yd./Yr.

40000 cu.yd./Yr.

40000 T/Yr.

-------
TABLE 111-17 (cont'd)

Source No.

Address

Part,
T/Yr.

so2

T/Yr,

Process
Weight

15

16

17

18

19

1319 Vincennes St,
New Albany

Charlestown Rd.
New Albany

Floyd Knobs, IN

1909 McDonald Ln.
New Albany

New Albany

2
1

1
26

0
0

0
0

42500 T/Yr.

360 T/Yr.
4000 T/Yr.
Material Sawed

150 lb/wk.

180 T/Yr.

-------
TABLE III-1C

CLARK COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS

Source No.

Address

Part.
T/Yr.

so2

T/Yr.

Process
Weight

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

R2-Highway 60	9

Borden

1019 E. Utica St.	4.5

Sellersburg

1007 W. Riverside	0

Clarksville

1301 Watt St.	14

Jeffersonville

1533 Plank Rd.	0

Jeffersonville

208 W. Cornell Ave.	6

Clarksville

Pike St. - Rt. 2	1

Charlestown

Utica St.	7

Sellersburg

211 Eastern Blvd.	0

Jeffersonville

521 N. Clark Blvd.	0

Clarksville

1602 E. Market	3

Jeffersonville

305 S. New Albany	2

Sellersburg

St. John Rd.	0

Borden

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

40000 T/Yr.

4510 T/Yr.

9600 T/Yr.
6700 T/Yr.

30000 T/Yr.

10000 T/Yr.

355 T/Mo.
80000 T/Yr.
400 lb./hr.

-------
TABLE 111-18 (cont'd)

Part. SO2 Process
Source No.	Address	T/Yr .	T/Yr .	Weight

14	Broadway St.	11	0	50000 T/Yr.

Clarksville

15	65 Harrison Ave.	^	0	1250 T/Yr.

Jeffersonville

Ui
ON

-------
28. Paved Roads

Two particulate emission factors have been suggested both based
on VMT. A Seattle study suggested an emission factor of 1.75 g/VMT for clean
streets. This leads to total emissions for the AQMA as follows:

o / c	~ 6

1.75 x 11,606,928 x 365 x x 1.102 x 10 = 5484.1 tons/year

A Chicago study concluded that only 25% of motor vehicle impact can
be attributed to exhaust emissions. For the AQMA, calculations are as follows:

0.34 LDV exhaust EF	n ,,/««. /

0.54 LDV total EF X 2288'5 = 144°'9 tons/year

0.91 HDGV exhaust EF	n	r ^ ,

1.32 HDGV total EF * 423'° * 291'6 """/year

1.30 HDDV exhaust EF „	, ,	.

2.13 HDDV total EF * 230'° " 140'4

Total exhaust emission	1872.9 tons/year

1872 9

Total Vehicle Impact ^ = 7491.6 tons/year

Less Tire Wear & Exhaust	,

„ . .	= 2941.5 tons/year

Emissions	y

AQMA Paved Road Emissions	4550.1 tons/year

We have selected the emissions calculated from the Seattle study
since it was based on actual but somewhat questionable, measured concentrations.

Allocation to counties is made proportional to county total vehicle
particulate emissions as- described in Chapter IV, Section F.

Jefferson County: 2936*0 X	= 4769.8 tons/year

Floyd County:	2936*0 X	= 203.8 tons/year

Clark County:	x 5484#1 = 51(K6 tons/year

County totals were determined as the sum of emissions from county census
tracts. See Chapter IV, Section 28 for the method of allocating to tracts.

(1)

The two studies referenced here are unpublished papers provided to
Engineering-Science, Inc., by EPA, Region IV.

57

-------
G. COUNTY SUMMARIES

Tables III-19 and 111-20 are summaries of county-wide emissions.

58

-------
TABLE 111-19

AREA SOURCE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS SUMMARY
(tons/year)

Source

Jefferson

Floyd

Clark

1.

Residential Fuel

305.8

48.3

48.5

2.

Industrial Fuel

0

22.2

61.2

3.

C&I Fuel

409.4

15.1

45.8

4.

Internal Fuel Combustion

0.6

0

0

5.

Farm Tractors

13.1

3.5

8.5

6.

Small Gasoline Engines

50.4

4.0

5.7

7.

Construction Equipment

166.9

3.0

2.7

8.

Railroads

50.1

13.3

16.7

9.

Vessels

22.2

6.2

20.8

10.

LDV

1986.6

86.1

212.8

11.

HDGV

368.7

14.9

39.4

12.

HDDV

198.3

8.1

21.2

13.

Aircraft

29.1

0

0.1

14.

On-Site Incineration

64.7

8.7

12.4

15.

Open Burning

680.0

41.8

1589.5

16.

Structural Fires

22.3

3.2

3.3

17.

Frost Control

0

0

0

18.

Slash Burning

0

0

0

19.

Wild Forest Fires

1.5

0

0

20.

Agricultural Burning

0

0

0

21.

Unpaved Roads

1681.9

1217.1

7585.5

22.

Unpaved Airstrips

0

0

2.5

23.

Tilling Activity

65.3

31.0

222.8

24.

Mineral Processing

0

0

0

25.

Construction Activity

457.3

10.8

17.3

26.

Windblown Dust

6.7

0

0

27.

Process Loss

186.0

131.0

61.5

28.

Paved Roads

4769.8

203.8

510.6



TOTAL

11536.7
59

1872.1

10488.8

-------
TABLE 111-20

AREA SOURCE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS SUMMARY
(tons/year)

Source

Jefferson

Floyd

Clark

1.

Residential Fuel

497.4

89.5

82.6

2.

Industrial Fuel

0

53.7

246.9

3.

C&I Fuel

703.1

30.7

122.5

4.

Internal Fuel Combustion

0

0

0

5.

Farm Tractors

9.0

2.4

5.7

6.

Small Gasoline Engines

24.5

2.0

2.8

7.

Construction Equipment

199.2

3.6

3.2

8.

Railroads

98.0

26.0

32.6

9.

Vessels

6.6

1.8

6.1

10.

LDV

478.3

20.7

51.2

11.

HDGV

100.7

4.1

10.7

12.

HDDV

260.6

10.6

27.9

13.

Aircraft

46.3

0

0.1

14.

On-Site Incineration

17.1

3.1

4.4

15.

Open Burning

0

2.6

3.7

16.

Structural Fires

0

0

0

17.

Frost Control

0

0

0

18.

Slash Burning

0

0

0

19.

Wild Forest Fires

0

0

0

20.

Agricultural Burning

0

0

0

21.

Unpaved Roads

0

0

0

22.

Unpaved Airstrips

0

0

0

23.

Tilling Activity

0

0

0

24.

Mineral Processing

0

0

0

25.

Construction Activity

0

0

0

26.

Windblown Dust

0

0

0

27.

Process Loss

61.0

0

0

28.

Paved Roads

0

0

0

TOTAL	2501.8	250.8	600.4

60

-------
CHAPTER IV

1973 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT

The following paragraphs discuss the methodology for allocation and
assignment of county-wide emissions to the appropriate census tract which
is for this study the basis for input into the Air Quality Display Model.

We have used the word allocate to indicate distribution of total county-
wide quantities to subcounty areas and assignment to indicate placement of
a discreet area source, e.g., aircraft operations, into a particular tract
or tracts.

Each of the 28 source categories is assigned to a tract or allocated to
the appropriate tract by a selected allocation factor. The mechanics of the

Drocess are facilitated by the work sheet form shown as Figure IV-1 reduced.
Completed worksheets and AQDM load sheets have been forwarded to the Kentucky
Division of Air Pollution.

A. FUEL COMBUSTION

1. Residential Fuel

This source category is allocated using the procedures for calculating
theoretical fuel usage described in Volume 13 of the Guidelines. Engineering-
Science has programmed the calculations for the computer. The Volume 13 pro-
cedure considers total fuel usage to depend upon three parameters: heating
degree days, dwelling size distribution, and fuel type distribution.

The number of heating degree days is available from standard climatological
summaries. The total is 4724 for the Louisville area. Dwelling size distribu-
tion is given in the 1970 Census of Population and Housing. Fuel type distri-
bution by number of dwelling units is available from International Data for
Development, Inc. based on census data. Priatouts of the daca have been
provided to the Division of Air Pollution.

Using these data and the appropriate emission factors, emissions by census
tract are calculated for each fuel type^ . The county particulate emission
totals so calculated are summarized below:

(1) A necessary assumption In applying the Volume 13 procedure is that
dwelling size distribution is the same for all fuel types.

61

-------
ALLOCATION WORK SHEET

ENGINEERING - SCIENCE, INC

TRACT
NO.

COORDINATES

AREA

SOURCE
HEIGHT

TOTAL LsEA

POP
FACTOR

ju'JPAVEO

AWIC



RESIDE..!
FUEL

c/: ! -..D

rUEL run

1 :.c I r—
£°a:'o:.

OPEN
bu=:.

r 1 RES

ROAD VEHICLES

OrF Ilic^-Ar VEnlCLES 1 J

UNPAVED

TILLING

CONSTRUCT
ACTIVITY













(T0«/DAt!

FACTOR

FACTOR

FACTO"

LOGV

hk; hdov

*w;oes 1 equip ! d 1 G 1 loco ' *AfiD 1



ROADS

AIRSTRIPS

COUNTT
TOTAL

























j







1 ! i !



i 1











































!









1

: i 1 I 1

























































1

' 1 1





























































! i 1 ! 1











































! 1









1

; : ! ! !







































¦

! ! 5







1

III1!









































1 i 1







[

Mil!







1





























i

1 1 1







1 ! ! ; !

|







































|

1 1 I







i 1 i

|









































1 1









l i
i l

!



1































j











| i







! |

1
1



|































|









I i

|





I i

1 i

|



|

|



|



























































|



















ON
hO

T1

O
C

w

-------
Jefferson County	Tons/year

Natural and LP Gas	171.10

Distillate and Residual Oil	37.42

Bituminous Coal	147.88

Wood	42.76

Total	399.16

Floyd County	Tons/year

Natural and LP Gas	40.23

Distillate and Residual Oil	13.53

Bituminous Coal	57.62

Wood	14.86

Total	126.24

Clark County

Natural and LP Gas	61.38

Distillate and Residual Oil	23.28

Bituminous Coal	36.10

Wood	12.75

Total	133.51

As can be noted when comparing these emissions with those resulting
from fuel usage determined by the fuel survey (Chapter III, Section 1), the
Volume 13 method has over-predicted. A second feature of the computer pro-
gram allows the output to be factored by fuel type to arrive at a selected
value of total emissions. For instance, we have concluded that in Jefferson
County a total of 148.6 tons per year of particulates are emitted from
natural and LP gas usage. The theoretical total is 171.10 tons/year. The
computer program factors the emissions in each tract for this fuel by
j"^*^ ¦ = 0.869. The result is allocation to tracts by the Volume 13 dis-

.L / X • 1U

tribution, county totals equaling the fuel survey totals.

An identical procedure is used for SO^ emissions,

2. Industrial Fuel

In Jefferson County there were no emissions under this source

category.

63

-------
In Floyd and Clark Counties allocations were made 50% proportional
to process loss emissions (see Section 27 of this chapter) and 50% propor-
tional to point source SO^ emissions from NEDS as listed below:

Source

Tract No.

SO2 Emissions

(Tons/Year)

Colgate Palmolive

609.1/4237.1

504

8

Louisville Cement

609.0/4252.3

507

481

Army Ammunitions

617.0/4254.0

509

47

Philadelphia Quart

z 608.9/4241.5

505.02

2

Hoosier Panel

603.5/4240.6

709

2

National Homes

603.5/4239.5

705

1

Public Service Co.

601.6/4235.5

706

94022

B. L. Curry

603.1/4238.9

705

30

General Plywood

603.5/4240.7

702

3

Chester B. Stern

603.2/4241.3

708/709

2

3. Commercial and

Institutional Fuel





Allocation factors for this source category were derived from the
aerial photographs provided by the Kentucky Department of Transportation.

Each commercial or institutional building was counted and its size in plan
view was recorded. Allocation to tract was made in accordance with the sum
of the areas of all buildings within the tract.

4.	Internal Fuel Combustion

The one source in this category, the Texas Gas Transmission Company,
Jeffersontown pumping station was assigned to the tract appropriate to its
location, Tract 111.

B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES

5.	Farm Tractors

Emissions from this source category were allocated to tracts in
accordance with an agricultural allocation factor derived for the most part

64

-------
from the aerial photographs in a manner similar to the commercial/institutional
fuel allocation factor. In the far eastern area of Clark County, which was not
included in the photographs, allocation factors were estimated subjectively
from large scale Geological Survey topographic maps (7 1/2' series).

6.	Small Gasoline Engines

This source category was allocated in accordance with population

factors based on 1970 census data.

7.	Construction Equipment

Emissions from this category were allocated proportional to the
allocation of the construction activity source category discussed in Section
25 of this chapter.

8.	Railroads

Emissions from road-haul locomotive emissions were allocated to
tracts in accordance with the number of train miles in each census tract.

Rail switch-yard operations were assigned as listed below based on
estimates of the size of the switch yard and the number of long-haul trains
being assembled in each.

Particulate	SO„

Jefferson County

Youngtown 2.96	3.91

Strawberry 4.83	6.36

Oak Street 2.22	2.93

H. K. Tower 0.98	1.30

Churchill Park 3.94	5.20

Union Station Yard 1.97	2.60

16.90	22.30

Floyd County

Tract 701 2.30	3.00

Tract 702 2.20	2.90

4.50	5.90

Clark County

Tract 502 0.47	0.62

Tract 503.01 0.47	0.62

Tract 505.02 4.19	5.54

Tract 506 0.47	0.62

5.60	7.40

DJ

-------
9. Vessels

Allocation of this source category was in accordance with the length
of the Ohio River bank in each census tract. However, in actual fact all of the
River is included in Kentucky census tracts. For this source category only,
the census tract boundaries were considered to run down the middle of the
River.

C. ROAD VEHICLES

Emissions from this source category were first allocated to three subareas
within the three-county study area in accordance with the SAPOLLUT readout. This
VMT distribution and emissions are shown in Tables IV-1 through IV-3. The three
subareas are shown in Figure IV-2.

TABLE IV-1

1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT







106 VMT



EMISSIONS
(tons/year)

CLASS

LDVMT

HDGVMT

HDDVMT

TOTAL

PART

so2

Freeway

8.35

0.97

0.32

9.64

7.13

2.57

Arterial

33.77

1.93

0.65

36.35

24.41

7.60

Local Service

4.72

0.29

0.10

5.11

3.46

1.09

Total

46.84

3.19

1.07

51.10

35.00

11.27

TABLE IV-2

1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL CITY

CLASS

106 VMT

LDVMT

HDGVMT

HDDVMT

TOTAL

EMISSIONS
(tons/year)
PART	SO,

Freeway

213.

.17

24.

.71

8,

.28

246.

.16

182.

,12

65.85

Arterial

455.

.83

26.

.09

8,

.74

490,

.66

329.

,52

102.56

Local Service

226,

.94

13.

,98

4.

.69

245,

.61

166.

,29

52.50

Total

895.

.95

64,

.78

21,

.71

982,

.43

677.

,93

220.91

66

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TABLE IV-3

1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSION SUBURBS

106 VMT EMISSIONS
		(tons/year)

CLASS

LDVMT

HDGVMT

HDDVMT

TOTAL

PART

S02

Freeway

917.33

106.31

35.63

1059.27

783.68

283.36

Arterial

1244.06

71.21

23.86

1339.13

899.35

279.92

Local Service

738.71

45.51

15.25

799.47

541.25

170.83

Total

2900.10

223.03

74.74

3197.87

2224.28

734.11

All historical ADT data and maps of the AQMA showing traffic count
stations were obtained from KIPDA. Fiscal year 1971 data were selected for
allocation purposes since that year appeared to have a more nearly complete
set of traffic counts than more recent years. ADT values were plotted on
the maps and link specific emissions calculated as the product of ADT, link
length, and emission factors as given in Chapter III, Section C.

Each of the three subareas, i.e., CBD, central city, and suburbs were
delineated on the maps, and the link specific emissions previously determined
by location were assigned to the appropriate area and tract within the area.
Each subarea was treated separately with residual emissions, not accounted for
by link specific assignment, allocated to tracts within the area in propor-
tion to tract population.

In the case of the CBD subarea, the link specific assignment by location
accounted for 100.8% of the CBD total emissions. Obviously, some difference
in freeway and/or arterial VMT as determined from the ADT data and by inter-
polation of the CBD SAPOLLUT VMT output was responsible for the anomaly. It
was assumed that the SAPOLLUT data was more accurate. The VMT for freeways
determined from the ADT data were separated from the total VMT determined by
location and reduced to agree with the SAPOLLUT freeway VMT. The resulting
emissions were assigned to tracts in accordance with freeway locations. The
remaining VMT determined from ADT data, assumed to be arterial VMT, were
reduced to agree with SAPOLLUT arterial VMT and assigned to tracts in ac-
cordance with location. The SAPOLLUT local service VMT were allocated to
tracts in accordance with population.

67

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In the cases of the central city and suburbs 52.7% and 56.9% of emissions re-
spectively were assigned to tracts by link specific emissions determined by ADT. The
residual emissions, not so assigned, were allocated to tracts in accordance
with population.

D.	OTHER MOBILE SOURCES

13.	Aircraft

There were three airports that had significant emissions. These
were assigned as follows:

Standiford Airport	Tract 91

Bowman Field	Tract 87

HAP's Airport	Tract 505.02

E.	SOLID WASTE

14.	On-Site Incineration

Emissions from the 58 incinerators in Jefferson County for which
operating data and locations were known were assigned to the appropriate
tract. Emissions from the unknown incinerators (a total of 31.0 tons/year)
were allocated in accordance with the commercial/institutional fuel usage
factor.

In Clark County the locations of the 22 incinerators were known, but
individual operating conditions were not known. Average emissions per
incinerator (0.56 tons/year for particulates and 0.20 tons/year for SO2)
were assigned to the appropriate tract in accordance with incinerator
locations.

In Floyd County only total emissions from this source category were
known. These were allocated in accordance with the commercial/institutional
fuel usage factor.

15.	Open Burning

Since the major source of open burning emissions in Jefferson County
are associated with land clearing and construction operations, allocation of
this source category in Jefferson County was made in accordance with the

development factors given in Table IV-4, Section 25 of this chapter.

69

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Particulate emissions from the burning of driftwood in Clark County were
allocated to Tract 510, the location of such burning. Emissions
from other sources in Clark County and all open burning emissions in Floyd
County were allocated by 20% of the population factor to those tracts in the
townships of New Albany, Clarksville and Jeffersonville. The remaining
emissions were allocated to the more rural tracts by area factors.

F. MISCELLANEOUS

16.	Structural Fires

This source category was allocated in accordance with the population
factors based on 1970 census data.

17.	Frost.Control

There were no emissions in this source category in 1973.

18.	Slash Burning

There were no emissions in this source category.

19.	Wild Forest Fires

Emissions from this source category were assigned to Tract 120,
the location of Jefferson County Memorial Forest.

20.	Agricultural Burning

There were no emissions in this source category.

21.	Unpaved Roads

In both Jefferson and Clark Counties the names and locations of
unpaved roads were known. Emissions were assigned to tracts in accordance
with an unpaved road allocation factor proportional to the number of miles
of listed unpaved roads in each tract.

In Floyd County only the total miles of unpaved roads was available.
The allocation factor was determined from the number of miles of unpaved roads
in each tract taken from county road maps provided by the Commissioner's Office.

22.	Unpaved Airstrip Operations

Emissions from this source category were assigned to Tract 505.02,
the location of Hap's Airport.

70

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23.	Tilling Activity

Emissions from this source category were allocated in accordance
with the agricultural allocation factor described in Section 5 of this chapter.

24.	Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock

There were no area sources in this category.

25.	Construction Activity

In Jefferson County allocation of emissions from this source category
was based on information concerning construction activity location in 1973 from
three sources:

o Subdivisions and industrial or commercial development
from the Louisville and Jefferson County Planning
Commission

o Downtown construction from the Urban Renewal
Redevelopment Division

o Highway construction from the Kentucky Department
of Transportation.

The area of each subdivision and industrial or commercial development
was calculated from the commissioner's plat maps. In addition there was one
regional shopping center of 54 acres under construction in 1973. Table IV-4.
summarizes the data obtained.

TABLE IV-4

SUMMARY OF JEFFERSON COUNTY RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL,

AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT - 1973

TRACT NO.	TYPE	AREA (Acres) FACTOR(%)

71

Commercial

0.5

0.02

75.01

Subdivision

64.9

2.08

89

Subdivision

4.4

0.14

91

Subdivision

23.1

0.74

95

Subdivision

55.7

1.78

100.03

Subdivision

7.3

0.23

101.02

Subdivision

25.8

0.83

102

Industrial

32.5

1.04

103.01

Subdivision

291.9

9.34

71

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104

Commercial

29.1

0.93

107

Commercial

50.8



107

Subdivision

425.2

15.23

109.01

Shopping Center

54.0

1.73

110.01

Subdivision

19.9

0.64

111

Commercial

40.3



111

Industrial

458.1

32.31

111

Subdivision

511.5



114.02

Subdivision

23.3

0.74

115.01

Subdivision

230.9

7.39

115.02

Subdivision

48.3

1.55

116 ¦

Industrial

122.6

8.52

116

Subdivision

143.7

117.01

Subdivision

119.7

3.83

117.02

Subdivision

86.3

2.76

119.02

Subdivision

49.5

1.58

120

Subdivision

11.6

0.37

121.01

Subdivision

14.9

0.48

121.02

Subdivision

65.9

2.11

122

Subdivision

41.2

1.32

123

Subdivision

50.9

1.63

124.01

Subdivision

6.6

0.21

126.02

Subdivision

8.9

0.28

127

Subdivision

6.1

0.20

Total



3125.4

100.01

The location, but not the area or dollar value of urban renewal
and highway construction, was available.

Allocation of emissions was made as follows:

o 50% of total emissions to the tracts listed

in Table IV-4 in accordance with the area factor

o 25% of total emissions equally distributed among
renewal projects

o 25% of total emissions equally distributed among
highway projects.

72

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In Floyd and Clark Counties such detailed information vas
unavailable. Subjective estimates of construction activity location were
made reflecting the general pace of development on the fringes of the towns
with less intensive development in the more rural areas. Emissions from the
sources were allocated as follows:

FLOYD

COUNTY

CLARK

COUNTY

TRACT NO.

EMISSIONS (%)

TRACT NO.

EMISSIONS (%)

701

0

501

0

702

0

C\J

0

ITS

0

703

15

503.01

10

70U

0

503.02

0

705

5

50U

10

706

15

505.01

15

707

5

505.02

15

708

15

506

20

709

15

507

10

710.01

10

W1
O

CO

5

710.02

5

509

10

711

5

510

5

712

10





26. Windblown Dust

The one source in this category was located in tract 93.

27.	Process Loss

Emissions from each of the sources listed in this source category
were assigned to the appropriate tract by street address of the source.

28.	Paved Roads

Emissions from the source category were allocated proportionally
to the allocation of total particulates from the three road vehicle cate-
gories discussed in Section C of this chapter. This method of allocation
is superior to a method based only on VMT, the predictor for total emissions,
because it gives added emphasis to heavy duty vehicles with their greater

73

-------
number of tires and potential for reentraining road dust. As a mater of
fact the method very closely (about 10% error and not within the significant
digits recorded for tract emissions) approximates a method based on tire
miles traveled.

74

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CHAPTER V

REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Because population arid employment growth and the location of the
industry, housing and commercial/institutional establishments required
to support the growth play such an important part in projecting our pollu-
tion emissions to be considered in Chapters VI and VII, the general regional
growth characteristics are examined separately in this chapter. In general,
it will be required in Chapters VI and VII that each of the 28 source category
emissions be projected to the planning years 1975, 1980, and 1985 and the
emissions located in the appropriate census tracts as was done earlier for
the base-line year.

For each source category the projections can be done in two ways:

o The two-step approach in which county-wide emissions are
projected and then allocated to tracts in accordance with
some logical allocation factor, or,

o Since we already have base-line years emissions by tract,
project the disaggregated totals, directly. In actual
fact, a combination of these methods will be used.

A. POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Two basic sources of population projections for the AQMA were available:

o The 1972 OBERS AQMA projections prepared for EPA by

the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These projections were
used in t-he 201 study and disaggregated by counties.

o The 1972 Series E OBERS projections which update the
earlier version and are currently being used by the
local planning agencies. The AQMA projections have not
been disaggregated by counties in the Series E projections.

Additionally, 1973 county population estimates were provided by KIPDA.

.(These estimates were first introduced in Chapter II.) These estimates were

75

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used for the base-line year.

To arrive at planning year population total AQMA base-line year KIPDA
estimates were projected in accordance with the Series E OBERS projection factors.
AQMA totals were then -disaggregated by counties in accordance with the 201
disaggregation factors. The resulting population estimates and growth
factors are shown in Table V-l.

These county total populations must then be allocated to census tracts.
The 201 study disaggregated total projected county population by drainage
sub-basins for all areas except the Louisville urban area, in general, that
area outside the Watterson Expressway. These projections were allocated
from sub-basin to census tract by area integration. The remaining population -
that in the urban area not accounted for in the sub-basin projections -
was allocated to census tracts in accordance with the distribution of 1970
population. These projections by census tracts were then adjusted by the
appropriate factors to make each county total agree with the modified Series E
OBERS projections. The resulting population projections by tract are given
in Table V-2.

B. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

The 1972 Series E. OBERS projections were the source for the employment
earnings projections shown in Table V-3. It is noted that the projections are
given in terms of earnings in 1967 dollars for the several labor classifications.
These earnings figures are very difficult to reduce to number of jobs, which
is the parameter one would think is most closely related to growth in area
source emissions. Furthermore, the Series E OBERS projections are not
disaggregated by counties.

As mentioned earlier the 201 study was based on an earlier OBERS.

Although total AQMA employment differs significantly between the two OBERS,
projected growth in employment is insignificantly different: from 1980 to
1985 the two factors are 1.093 and 1.095. It would appear, then, that either
may be used for projecting employment. The advantage in using the earlier
one is that it has been reduced to number of jobs and disaggregated by
counties in the 201 study. These projections, taken from the study are
shown in Tables V-4 through V-6.

76

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TABLE V-l

COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS

1973	1975	1980	1985

WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN (201)	PROJECTIONS

Jefferson County 713,300 753,587	812,351	880,769

Floyd County 56,800 59,565	63,772	68,659

Clark County 83,100 89,348	104,977	123,372

TOTAL 853,200 902,500	981,100	1,072,800

FACTOR 1.000 1.058	1.150	1.257

1972 SERIES E OBERS PROJECTIONS

TOTAL
FACTOR

859,085
1.000

889,003
1.035

963,800
1.122

1,051,100
1.224

KIPDA

MODIFIED SERIES E OBERS PROJECTIONS

POPULATION

Jefferson County	717,600

Floyd County	57,200

Clark County	81,500

TOTAL	856,300

739,911
58,484
87,726
121

886',

795,440
62,444
102,792
960,676

860,156
67,052

120,485
1,047,693

FACTORS

Jefferson County
Floyd County
Clark County
AQMA

1.000
1.000'
1.000
1.000

1.031
1.022
1.076
1.035

1.108
1.092
1.261
1.122

1.199
1.172
1.487
1.224

77

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TABLE V-2

PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT

CENSUS

TRACT	1975	 1980	1985

JEFFERSON COUNTY

1

1,150

1,184

1,223

2

2,957

3,045

3,143

3

2,129

2,193

2,262

4

5,682

5,852

6,039

5

2,170

2,235

2,306

6

3,553

3,660

3,776

7

4,216

4,343

4,482

8

2,900

2,986

2,082

9

3,599

3,707

3,825

10

4,798

4,942

5,100

11

5,455

5,620

5,799

12

3,045

3,137

3,238

13

1,325

1,365

1,407

14

6,409

6,602

6,812

15

5,961

5,326

5,497

16

5,171

5,326

5,497

17

4,172

4,298

4,435

18

3,421

3,523

3,636

19

2,746

2,827

2,918

20

3,291

3,390

3,499

21

4,842

4,987

5,148

22

2,780

2,863

2,955

23

5,312

5,472

5,647

24

2,695

2,775

2,864

25

1,822

1,877

1,936

26

2,283

2,351

2,426

27

4,462

4,597

4,743

28

2,912

2,999

3,095

29

287

296

305

30

1,889

1,945

2,007

31

373

386

398

32

730

751

776

33

1,759

1,812

1,869

34

1,485

1,529

1,578

35

3,236

3,332

3,439

36

7,157

7,373

7,608

37

3,052

3,143

3,244

38

4,042

4,162

4,295

39

5,498

5,663

5,844

40

2,287

2,355

2,430

41

3,226

3,324

3,430

42

2,043

2,104

2,172

43

8,528

8,783

9,063

78

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TABLE V-2 (CONT'D)

PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT

CENSUS

TRACT	1975	1980	1985

JEFFERSON COUNTY

44

4,681

4,822

4,975

45

4,673

4,813

4,968

46

4,543

4,679

4,828

47

300

308

318

48

124

128

132

49

1,526

1,573

1,622

50

2,272

2,341

2,415

51

3,493

3,598

3,714

52

4,769

4,912

5,069

53

1,883

1,939

2,000

54

591

608

628

55

3,155

3,250

3,354

56

4,416

4,754

4,907

57

1,809

1,864

1,923

58

176

181

187

59

4,258

4,385

4,525

60

2,068

2,130

2,197

61

1,098

1,131

1,168

62

3,604

3,712

3,830

63

4,563

4,701

4,850

64

3,026

3,117

3,216

65

2,651

2,730

2,818

66

4,165

4,289

4,426

67

1,731

1,782

1,839

68

3,202

3,298

3,404

69

2,941

3,029

3,128

70

2,821

2,906

2,999

71

4,836

4,982

5,140

72

302

310

321

73

776

800

826

74

3,373

3,474

3,585

75.01

4,323

4,483

4,740

75.02

5,428

7,224

9,197

76

8,978

9,248

9,543

77

3,153

3,248

3,352

78

4,546

4,682

4,832

79

2,322

2,392

2,468

80

1,278

1,317

1,359

81

3,658

3,767

3,889

82

5,291

5,449

5,624

83

3,438

3,542

3,655

84

4,009

4,129

4,262

85

2,566

2,643

2,727

86

853

878

907

79

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TABLE V-2 (CONT'D)

PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT

CENSUS

TRACT	1975	1980		1985

JEFFERSON COUNTY

87

4,012

4,132

4,264

88

3,824

3,938

4,063

89

4,711

4,853

5,008

90

8,302

8,554

8,824

91

10,573

10,957

11,523

92

4,385

4,516

4,660

93

5,937

6,116

6,310

94

4,081

4,204

4,337

95

1,086

1,118

1,155

96

5,526

5,692

5,873

97

3,087

3,178

3,281

98

4,150

4,274

4,411

99

3,601

3,709

3,827

100.01

4,490

4,549

4,667

100.02

6,279

7,468

8,809

100.03

9,989

10,997

12,132

101.01

4.021

4,142

4,279

101.02

3,191

3,286

3,392

102

1,138

1,403

1,702

103.01

8,341

1,151

14,972

103.02

4,218

6,492

8,940

104

8,591

10,095

11,793

105

4,874

5,020

5,181

106

5,040

5,194

5,359

107

8,820

10,318

12,052

108

4,034

4,156

4,288

109.01

6,310

6,499

6,706

109.02

6,248

6,435

6,642

110.01

14,629

15,066

15,548

110.02

4.050

4,183

4,329

111

18,859

20,618

22,638

112

4,417

4,549

4,695

113

12,760

13,653

14,803

114.01

6,879

7,614

8,499

114.02

10,628

11,719

13,073

115.01

15,908

17,326

19,100

115.02

5,746

6,963

8,344

116

4,375

5,161

6,069

117.01

8,221

9,749

11,504

117.02

9,824

11,688

13,822

117.03

3,757

4,068

4,465

118

7,862

8,466

9,169

119.01

6,551

8,098

9,839

119.02

- 8,517

9,298

10,287

119.03

9,735

10,496

11,487

80

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TABLE V-2 (CONT'D)

PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT

CENSUS

TRACT	1975	1980	1985

120	12,403	13,149	14,178

121.01	12,794	15,819	19,214

121.02	16,278	18,779	21,712

122	14,804	18,211	22,015

123	6,464	7,152	7,940

124.01	10,360	11,371	12,636

124.02	14,127	15,389	16,991

124.03	9,710	10,646	11,819
125	13,996	14,736	15,740

126.01	9,093	9,152	9,409

126.02	10,082	10,239	10,609

127	13,238	13,836	14,730

128	8,081	8,278	8,523

129	841	866	895

130	1,890	1,946	2,008

131	2,706	2,788	2,877

132	738	761	785
JEFFERSON

TOTALS	739,911	.795,440	860,156

FLOYD COUNTY

701	1,024	1,090	1,166

702	2,854	3,035	3,247

703	7,824	8,323	8,906

704	3,792	4,034	4,317

705	3,503	3,727	3,988

706	3,528	3,753	4,014

707	4,194	4,462	4,774

708	6,853	7,291	7,801

709	6,646	7,070	7,564

710.01	4,634	4,931	5,276

710.02	5,937	6,437	7,007

711	5,183	5,622	6,141

712	2,512	2,669	2,851
FLOYD

TOTALS	58,484	62,444	67,052

CLARK COUNTY

501	2,576	3,030	3,583

502	4,836	5,688	6,728

81

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TABLE V-2 (CONT'D)

CENSUS
TRACT

1975

1980

1985

CLARK COUNTY







503.01

8,257

9,711

11,485

503.02

7,589

8,926

10,556

504

14,694

17,282

20,457

505.01

3,472

4,083

4,829

505.02

5,746

6,579

7,994

506

7,464

8,779

10,382

507

10,451

12,289

14,529

508

8,924

10,343

11,791

509

9,763

11,444

13,427

510

3,954

4,458

4,724

CLARK COUNTY







TOTALS

87,726

102,792

120,485

82

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TABLE V-3

AQMA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT EARNINGS AND FACTORS
(1,000* s of 1967 dollars)



1973(1)

1975(1)

1980

1985

Mining

4,298

4,699

5,700

6,200

Construction

199,088

219,320

269,900

324,800

Manufacturing

1,061,261

1,183,987

1,490,800

1,802,900

T.C.U.

231,025

249,246

294,800

350,000

Trade

482,485

527,575

640,300

761,500

F.I.R.E.(3)

159,381

180,815

234,400

295,200

Services

409,227

472,133

629,400

816,600

Government

334,179

369,356

457,300

572,800

Mining

1.000

1.093

1.326

1.443

Construction

1.000

1.102

1.356

1.631

Manufacturing

1.000

1.116

1.405

1.699

T.C.U.(2)

1.000

1.079

1.276

1.515

Trade

1.000

1.093

1.327

1.578

F.I.R.E.(3)

1.000

1.134

1.471

1.852

Services

1.000

1.154

1.538

1.995

Government

1.000

1.105

1.368

1.714

(1)	Interpolated between 1971 and 1980.

(2)	T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities.

(3)	F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate.

83

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TABLE V-4

JEFFERSON COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS

1973

(1)

1975

1980

1985

Mining

252



259

268

Construction

15,545

16

,551

17,226

Manufacturing
T.C.u/2)

95,780

99

,489

105,257

20,863

21

,007

21,686

Trade

64,282

67

,063

72,424

F.I.R.E.(3)

16,186

16

,761

18,106

Services

45,366

47

,649

53,697

Government

37,929

39

,721

44,735

Mining

1.00

1.

028

1.063

Construction

1.00

1.

065

1.108

Manufacturing

1.00

1.

039

1.099

T.C.U.(2)

1.00

1.

007

1.039

Trade

1.00

1.

043

1.127

F.I.R.E.

1.00

1.

036

1.119

Services

1.00

1.

050

1.184

Government

1.00

1.

047

1.179

269
18,589
112,432
22,603
78,585
19,709
60,806
49,680

1.067
1.196
1.174
1.083
1.223
1.218
1.340
1.310

(1)	Interpolated between 1971 and 1980.

(2)	T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities.

(3)	F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate.

84

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TABLE V-5

FLOYD COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS

1973

(1)

1975

1980

1985

Mining

Construction
Manufacturing
T.C.U.(2>
Trade
F.I.R.E.
Services
Government

(3)

68
454
4,930
697
3,204
641
1,556
2,014

67
465
5,210
674
3,215
638
1,572
2,029

71
501
5,546
720
3,593
714
1,833
2,365

71
535
5,771
743
3,861
767
2,056
2,601

Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
T.C.U.'2>

(3)

Trade
F.I.R.E.

Services
Government

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

0.985
1.024
1.057
0.967
1.003
0.995
1.010
1.007

1.044
1.104
1.125
1.033
1.121
1.114
1.178
1.174

1.044
1.178
1.171
1.066
1.205
1.197
1.321
1.291

(1)	Interpolated between 1971 and 1980.

(2)	T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities.

(3)	F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate.

85

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TABLE V-6

CLARK COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS

1973

(1)

1975

1980

1985

Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
T.C.U.(2)
Trade
F.I.R.E.
Services
Government

(3)

98
798
10,592
1,306
4,882
572
2,018
3,007

106
893
11,638
1,386
5,359
623
2,229
3,313

119
1,013
13,047
1,559
6,308
734
2,738
4,067

130
1,185
14,796
1,762
7,420
864
3,361
4,896

Mining	1.00

Construction	1.00

Manufacturing	1.00

T.C.U. ^	1.00

Trade	1.00

F.I.R.E. ^	1.00

Services	1.00

Government	1.00

1.082
1.119
1.099
1.061
1.098
1.089
1.105
1.102

1.214
1.269
1.232
1.194
1.292
1.283
1.357
1.353

1.327
1.485
1.397
1.349
1.520
1.510
1.666
1.628

(1)	Interpolated between 1971 and 1980.

(2)	T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities.

(3)	F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate.

86

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C. LAND USE PLANNING

A variety of land use planning information was obtained from the
various planning and other agencies. Of primary importance were the
following:

o 1969 Louisville and Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan
for 1990.

o 1970 Floyd County Land Use and School and Park Plan for
1990.

o Updated Proposed Clark County Generalized Land Use Plan
for 1990.

o Environmental Assessment of the Louisville and Jefferson
County Riverport Industrial Development.

o Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Clark Maritime
Center.

o Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Clark County
Airport.

87

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CHAPTER VI

COUNTY-WIDE AREA SOURCE EMISSION PROJECTIONS

The following paragraphs discuss the methodology for projecting the 1973
county-wide emissions to the planning years 1975, 1980, and 1985 and give the
results of the projection calculations.

A. FUEL COMBUSTION

1. Residential Fuel

The projections in this source category depend upon increasing population,
as given in Table V-l, and future fuel type and dwelling size distribution.
Traditionally, coal as a residential heating fuel has been decreasing with
time. The National Petroleum Council estimates a further decrease of 54%
from 1973 to 1985 on a national basis. There is little hope for increased
availability of natural gas or LPG. Consequently, assumptions concerning
projected fuel types distribution are listed below:

® Decrease coal consumption by 4.5%/year,

6 Natural and LP gas usage constant.

® 50% of coal conversions and new dwellings will
be heated by distillate oil; 50% by electricity.

® Residual oil usage constant.

• Use of wood as a residential fuel will increase with
population.

The reasonableness of these assumptions has been verified by the Director
of the Kentucky Energy Office.

No forecast change in dwelling size distribution is available; this
parameter and the resulting heating efficiency were assumed to be constant.
However, the trend seems to be toward more multi-family dwellings and increased
heating efficienty. Errors in the emission predictions caused by ignoring
this trend are conservative, i.e., predicted emissions would tend to be larger
than actual emissions.

88

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Tables VI-1 and VI-2 summarize emissions from residential fuel usage by
fuel type for each county.

The values of emissions from burning LPG, natural gas, residual oil,
coal and wood are derived directly from the above assumptions. The value
for distillate oil emissions was calculated in the following manner using the
Jefferson County 1985 SO^ projection as an example. With no change in fuel
mix natural gas and coal emissions would increase with the population factor:

Gas emissions: 8.6 x 1.199 = 10.3 tons/year

Coal emissions: 289.9 x 1.199 = 347.6 tons/year

The increment converted to oil is one-half the difference between these
population predicted emissions and the actual predictions from Table Vl-2.

Gas emissions: (10.3 - 8.6) x 1/2 = 0.9 tons/year

Coal emissions: (347.6 - 133.4) x 1/2 = 107.1 tons/year

These emissions are converted to fuel burned by the appropriate emission
factors from Chapter III, Section 1.

Gas: 0.9 x	= 3,000 x 10^ ft^/year

U • 0

Coal: 107.1 x	= 2,818 tons/year

/ o

These fuels burned are then converted to distillate oil on a Btu
equivalent basis:

„ . 3,000 x 106 x 1,050 _ -n_ ,n3 .

140,000 x 1,000	22,500 x 10 gal

„ , 2,818 x 2,000 x 13,000	,„3

C°al:	140,000x1,000	" 523 X 10 *al

Emissions from this increment of distillate oil burned at 0.27% S,

23,023 x 142 x 0.27 ... ,

—	f 000	 =	tons/year

are added to the emissions from normal population growth projections

198.9 x 1.199 = 238.5 tons/year

89

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TABLE VI-1

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE
EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL FUEL USAGE
(Tons/Year)



1973

1975

1980

1985

Jefferson County









LPG

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

Natural Gas

142.9

142.9

142.9

142.9

Distillate Oil

51.9

70.8

117.8

173.4

Bituminous Coal

62.5

56.9

42.8

28.8

Wood

42.8

44.1

47.4

51.3

Total

305.8

320.4

356.6

402.1

Floyd County









LPG

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

Natural Gas

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.4

Distillate Oil

19.1

20.6

24.7

28.9

Residual Oil

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Bituminous Coal

3.9

3.5

2.7

1.8

Wood

14.9

15.2

16.3

17.5

Total

48.3

49.7

54.1

58.6

Clark County









LPG

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

Natural Gas

9.0

9.0

9.0

9.0

Distillate Oil

• 20.5

25.9

37.2

50.7

Residual Oil

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Bituminous Coal

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.6

Wood

12.8

13.8

16.1

18.9

Total

48.5

54.8

68.1

84.2

90

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TABLE VI-2

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO,,
EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL FUEL USAGE
(Tons/Year)

1973 1975 1980 1985

Jefferson County

LPG	0

Natural Gas	8.6

Distillate Oil	198.9

Bituminous Coal	289.9

Total	497.4

Floyd County

LPG	0

Natural Gas	0.4

Distillate Oil	70.4

Residual Oil	0.8

Bituminous Coal	17.9

Total	89.5

Clark County

LPG	0

Natural Gas	0.5

Distillate Oil	66.9

Residual Oil	9.5

Bituminous Coal	5.7

Total	82.6

0

0

0

8.6

8.6

8.6

254.6

465.8

679.9

263.8

198.6

133.4

527.0

673.0

821.9

0

0

0

0.4

0.4

0.4

72.1

76.9

82.5

0.8

0.8

0.8

16.3

12.3

8.2

89.6

90.4

91.9

0

0

0

0.5

0.5

0.5

72.0

84.4

98.9

9.5

9.5

9.5

5.2

3.9

2.6

87.2

98.3

111.5

91

-------
to give total distillate oil emissions of 679.9 tons/year

2.	Industrial Fuel

Jefferson County had no emissions in this source category. However,
it will be recalled that emissions from fuel burning from small point sources
were included in the process loss source category.

It was assumed that there would be no growth in natural or LP gas
usage and that all growth, in accordance with projected manufacturing
employment (Tables V-5 and V-6) would be in those industries using distillate
and residual oil. The resulting fuel distribution is given in Table VI-3
and the resulting emission projections are given in Table VI-4. No change
in sulfur in fuel is assumed.

3.	Commercial and Institutional Fuel

County-wide emissions from this source category are projected in
accordance with projected employment in trade, finance, insurance, and
real estate, services and government given in Tables V-4 through V-6. The
following assumptions were made concerning future fuel distribution:

o No growth in coal usage;

o No growth in natural or LP gas usage; and

o The ratio between distillate and residual oil will remain
constant.

The resulting projected fuel usage distribution is shown in Table VI-5
and the emissions in Table VI-6.

4.	Internal Fuel Combustion

The one source in this category for 1973 was the Jeffersontown pump-
ing station operated by the Texas Gas Transmission Company. The company
plans no additional pumping stations. In 1973 the Jeffersontown station
was operating at 100% of capacity. The following information, provided
by the Company, permits calculation of projected emissions for this
source category:

92

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TABLE VI-3

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL
AREA SOURCE FUEL DISTRIBUTION
3

(10 gal distillate oil equivalent)

1973 1975 1980 1985

Floyd County

LPG

39

39

39

39

Natural Gas

2377

2377

2377

2377

Distillate Oil

2609

2891

3228

3456

Residual Oil

81

90

100

107

Total

5106

5397

5744

5979

Factor

1.000

1.057

1.125

1.171

Lark County









LPG

275

275

275

275

Natural Gas

23235

23235

23235

23235

Distillate Oil

1410

2257

3395

4806

Residual Oil

3230

5170

7776

11010

Total

28150

30937

34681

39326

Factor

1.000

1.099

1.232

1.397

93

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TABLE VI-4

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS
FROM INDUSTRIAL FUEL USAGE
(Tons/Year)

	1973 1975	1980	1985

PARTICULATE

Jefferson County 0 0 0	0

Floyd County 22.2 24.3 27.0	28.8

Clark County 61.2 88.3 124.8	170.1

so2

Jefferson County 0 0 0	0

Floyd County 53.7 59.4 66.3	71.0

Clark County 246.9 394.7 593.2	839.5

94

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TABLE VI-5

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL
FUEL DISTRIBUTION

3

(10 gal distillate oil equivalent)

1973 1975 1980 1985

Jefferson County

LPG

332

332

332

332

Natural Gas

141412

141412

141412

141412

Distillate Oil

22977

30414

48431

68430

Residual Oil

425

563

896

1266

Bituminous Coal

3196

3196

3196

3196

Total

168342

175917

194267

214636

Factor

1.000

1.045

1.154

1.275

Loyd County









LPG

98

98

98

98

Natural Gas

5985

5985

5985

5985

Distillate Oil

1364

1400

2447

3221

Residual Oil

21

22

38

50

Bituminous Coal

17

17

17

17

Total

7485

7522

8585

9371

Factor

1.000

1.005

1.147

1.252

Lark County









LPG

148

148

148

148

Natural Gas

9578

9578

9578

9578

Distillate Oil

3777

4938

7518

10503

Residual Oil

922

1206

1835

2564

Bituminous Coal

28

28

28

28

Total

14453

15898

19107

22821

Factor

1.000

1.100

1.322

1.579

95

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TABLE VI-6

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS
FROM COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FUEL
(Tons/Year)

	1973 1975 1980	1985

PARTICULATE

Jefferson County 409.4 466.7 605.4	759.3

Floyd County 15.1 15.4 23.4	29.3

Clark County 45.8 57.5 83.6	113.8

SO^

Jefferson County 703.1 844.2 1185.9	1565.2

Floyd County 30.7 . 31.4 52.1	67.3

Clark County 122.5 158.3 237.8	329.8

96

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EMISSIONS (tons/year)

Capacity (%)

Particulate

SO

2

1973

100
81
70
100

0.6

0

1975

0.5

0

1980

0.4

0

1985

0.6

0

B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES

5.	Farm Tractors

According to the 1960 Census of Agriculture farm land decreased at an
annual rate of 1.5%/year in Jefferson County and 3.3%/year in Floyd County
over the five-year period from 1964 to 1969. In Clark County a 0.6%/year
increase was observed. Because of the large growth in industry and commerce
expected in Clark County it is doubtful if the trend will continue and the
farm land will probably decrease over time at near the rate for the other
two counties in the metropolitan area. A value of 2%/year would appear
representative of the whole area.

This cannot be equated to the same reduction in emissions from
farm tractors, because the tendency is more tractors per farm and for
some farm tractor use not to be associated with real farming operations.
Consequently, emissions from. this, source category are reduced at a compound
decay rate of 1.00%/year. The resulting projected emissions are shown in
Table VI-7.

6.	Small Gasoline Engines

Emissions from small gasoline engines are projected to increase in
accordance with the projected population factors given In Table V-l and are
shown in Table VI-8.

7.	Construction Equipment

County-wide emissions from this source category are projected to
increase in accordance with the growth in construction employment given
in Tables V-4 through V-6. Projected emissions are shown in Table VI-9.

97

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TABLE VI-7

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
EMISSIONS FROM FARM TRACTORS
(Tons/Year)

	1973	1975 1980	1985

PARTICULATE

Jefferson County 13.1 12.8 12.2	11.6

Floyd County 3.5 3.4 3.3	3.1

Clark County 8.5 8.3 7.9	7.5

SO

2

Jefferson County	9.0	8.8	8.4	8.0

Floyd County	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.1

Clark County	5.7	5.6	5.3	5.1

98

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TABLE VI-8

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS
FROM SMALL GASOLINE ENGINES
(Tons/Year)

1973	 1975 1980 1985

PARTICULATE

Jefferson County 50.A 52.0 55.8	60.4

Floyd County 4.0 4.1 4.4	4.7

Clark County 5.7 6.1 7.2	8.4

so2

Jefferson County 24.5 25.3 27.1	29.4

Floyd County 2.0 2.0 2.2	2.3

Clark County 2.8 3.0 3.5	4.1

99

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TABLE VI-9

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS
FROM CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT
(Tons/Year)

1973 1975 1980 1985

PARTICULATE

Jefferson County 166.9 177.7 184.9	199.6

Floyd County 3.0 3.1 3.3	3.5

Clark County 2.7 3.0 3.4	4.0

SO^

Jefferson County 199.2 212.1 220.7	238.2

Floyd County 3.6 3.7 4.0	4.2

Clark County 3.2 3.6 4.1	4.8

100

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8.	Railroads

Data on growth in intercity railroad freight traffic were provided
by the Economics and Finance Department of the Association of American
Railroads. The annual average growth rate for such traffic, for the
period 1954 to 1974, has been 2.2% for railroad ton miles. This is to
be compared with a 3.5% growth for all modes of intercity freight traffic.
During this period the railroad share of traffic decreased from 49.6%
in 1954 to 38.6% in 1974. This decreasing trend in share of the market
is expected to stop with the accelerated use of coal as fuel and the
use of rail for its transport. Consequently, in projecting emissions
for both road-haul and yard operations, we have used a compound growth
factor of 1.035 per year.^ Furthermore, the proposed industrial and
port facilities would support this increased growth.

This, of course, ignores the substantially larger growth in fuel usage
reported in Chapter II for 1972 to 1973. However, this was a year of
unusual expansion in the economy; it is believed that the historical trend
would be a better basis for projecting emissions over the decade. Further-
more, projected employment in transportation, communications) and utilities
supports the smaller value.

Base line year emissions of SC^ were based on the national average
sulfur in fuel content for all railroads except the K&IT RR. A value of
0.231 percent was used for the latter. These values are also used for
projected emissions. The K&IT RR has a long-term fuel contract specifying
low sulfur fuel.

Factors and emissions resulting are shown in Table VI-10.

9.	Vessels

Historical growth factors for tons transported on the Ohio River in
Waterborne Commerce of the US, Calendar Year 1973, Part 2, Waterways and
Harbor, Gulf Coast, Mississippi River System and Antilles are shown below:

(1) A compound growth rate of 1.035%/year for the 1973 to 1985 period is

equivalent to 1.043%/year linear growth rate.

101

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TABLE VI-10

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
RAILROAD EMISSIONS

(Tons/Year)

1973

1975

1980

1985

FACTOR

1.00

1.07

1.27

1.51

PARTICULATE

ROAD-HAUL LOCOMOTIVES

Jefferson County	33.2

Floyd County	8.8

Clark County	11.1

RAIL YARD OPERATIONS

Jefferson County	16.9

Floyd County	4.5

Clark County	5.6

35.5
9.4
11.9

18.1
4.8
6.0

42.2
11.2
14.1

21.5
5.7
7.1

50.1
13.3
16.8

25.5
6.8
8.5

SO,

ROAD-HAUL LOCOMOTIVES

Jefferson County	75.7	81.0

Floyd County	20.1	21.5

Clark County	25.2	27.0

RAIL YARD OPERATIONS

Jefferson County	22.3	23.9

Floyd County	5.9	6.3

Clark County	7.4	7.9

96.1
25.5
32.0

28.3
7.5
9.4

114.3
30.4
38.1

33.7
8.9
11.2

102

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64-65 1.071

69-70 1.026

65-66 1.062

70-71 1.029

66-67 1.035

71-72 1.041

67-68 1.059

72-73 0.978

68-69 1.050

For the nine-year period the compound growth rate is 3.87%/year, a value
not greatly different from the 3.5%/year value for growth for all modes
of intercity freight traffic. In view of the discussion above concerning
the strengthening, or at least the no longer weakening position, of rail
transport, it is suggested that a 3.5%/year compound growth rate is
appropriate for river traffic and consequently for diesel vessel emissions.
No change in emission factors or sulfur in fuel is anticipated.

Growth factors for gasoline-powered recreation vessels are based on
projected population for the entire AQMA. There were no base-line year
particulate emissions from gasoline-powered vessels.

Factors and emissions resulting are shown in Table VI-11.

C. ROAD VEHICLES

Projections of emissions from road vehicles is dependent upon:

° changes in traffic volume;

° changes in vehicle type mix; and

0 changes in emission factors (emissions/vehicle-mile).

The 1995 VMT are available from the 1970 projections from SAPOLLUT by
functional class of road and area. These data are given in Table VI-12,
with the linearly interpolated values for 1973, 1975, 1980, and 1985.

There is little information available on the historical or projected
change in vehicle mix. The 1972 Census of Transportation shows for all
vehicles 98.9% gasoline in 1962, 92.5% gasoline in 1967, and
97.2% gasoline in 1972. The mix of HDGV/HDDV is not given. For

103

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TABLE VI-11

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
EMISSIONS FROM VESSELS (Tons/Year)



1973

1975

1980

1985





DIESEL VESSELS



FACTOR

1.00

1.07

1.27

1.51

PARTICULATE









Jefferson County

22.2

23.8

28.2

33.5

Floyd County

6.2

6.6

7.9

9.4

Clark County

20.8

22.3

26.4

31.4

so2









Jefferson County

5.7

6.1

7.2

8.6

Floyd County

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.4

Clark County

5.3

5.7
GASOLINE

6.7
VESSELS

8.0

FACTOR

1.00

1.06

1.15

1.26

so2









Jefferson County

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

Floyd County

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

Clark County

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

104

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TABLE VI-12

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED ANNUAL TRAFFIC VOLUME

(106 VMT)

CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT



1970

1973

1975

1980

1985

1995

Freeway

4.04

9.64

13.37

22.70

32.03

50.69

Arterial

36.01

36.35

36.57

37.14

37.70

38.83

Local Service

4.45

5.11

5.55

6.65

7.75

9.95

Total

44.50

51.10

55.49

66.49

77.48

99.47





CENTRAL CITY









1970

1973

1975

1980

1985

1995

Freeway

195.81

246.16

279.73

363.65

447.57

615.41

Arterial

496.06

490.67

487.08

478.10

469.12

451.16

Local Service

230.63

245.61

255.61

280.59

305.56

355.52

Total

922.50

982.44

1022;42

1122.34

1222.25

1422.09







SUBURBS









1970

1973

1975

1980

1985

1995

Freeway

859.13

1059.27

1192.70

1526.27

1859.83

2526.97

Arterial

1253.67

1339.13

1396.11

1538.55

1681.00

1965.88

Local Service

704.27

799.47

862.94

1021.61

1180.28

1497.62

Total

2817.07

3197.87

3451.75

4086.43

4721.11

5990.47

GRAND TOTAL

3784.07

4231.41

4529.66

5275.26

6020.84

7512.03

105

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projection purposes it is assumed that vehicle mix remains constant
within each of the areas for each functional class of road. This procedure
results in an increase in total HDVMT relative to total LDVMT within the
AQMA.

SC^ automotive emission factors do not change with time. Particulate
emission factors for LDGV, however, decrease with time because of the
expected increase in the use of catalytic converters in conjunction with
unleaded gasoline, and the resulting reduced emissions of lead oxides. For
LDGV the emission factor:

EF = [EFCC x F] + [EFncc x (1-F)] + EFTW

where FFcC is the exhaust emission factor for the 1975 model year and later

cars = 0.05 g/mile. EF	the exhaust emission factor for 1974 model

year and earlier cars = 0.34 g/mile. F is the fraction of annual travel

by the 1975 model year and later cards. EF„I7 is the tire wear emission

1W

factor = 0.20 g/mile. F is calculated using Table 1-22 in Appendix D of
AP-42.

1975:

Model Year	Age (years)	F

1975	1	0.112

Total	0.112

EF = (0.05)(0.112) + (0.34) (1-0.112) + 0.20
= 0.51 g/mile

1980:

Model Year	Age (years)	F

1980	1	0.112

1979	2	0.143

1978	3	0.130

1977	4	0.121

1976	5	0.108

1975	6	0.094

Total	0.708

EF = (0.05)(0.708)	+ (0.34)(1-0.708) + 0.20
= 0.33 g/mile

106

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1985:

Model Year	Age (year)	F

1985

1

0.112

1984

2

0.143

1983

3

0.130

1982

4

0.121

1981

5

0.108

1980

6

0.094

1979

7

0.079

1978

8

0.063

1977

9

0.047

1976

10

0.032

1975

11

0.019

Total



0.948

EF = (0.05)(0.948) + (0.34)(1-0.948) +0.20
= 0.27 g/mile

With these particulate emission factors and the unchanging SO^ emission
factors, projected emissions for the entire AQMA can be calculated using the
growth in VMT given in Table VI-12. The results are shown in Tables VI-13
and VI-14.

As for the base-line year, county-wide emission projections are deter-
mined by reaggregating the census tract allocations made in Chapter VII,,
Section C.

Particulate:

Jefferson County
Floyd County
Clark County

Jefferson County
Floyd County
Clark County

D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES
13. Aircraft

Projections of emissions for this source category are dependent upon
three factors:

1973

1975

2553.6
109.1
273.4

2613.3
109.2
291.4

839.6
35.4
89.8

901.3
37.3

100.4

1980

1985

2234.2
88.1
254.1

2248.5
84.9
260.6

1058.4
41.8
120.4

1215.0
46.2
141.1

107

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TABLE VI-13

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE
EMISSIONS FROM ROAD VEHICLES (Tons/Year)



CENTRAL BUSINESS

DISTRICT





1973

1975

1980

1985

Freeway

7.13

9.50

12.23

15.43

Arterial

24.41

23.44

16.96

14.91

Local Service

3.46

3.59

3.09

3.12

Total

35.00

36.53

32.28

33.46





CENTRAL CITY





1973

1975

1980

1985

Freeway

182.12

198.95

196.21

215.88

Arterial

329.52

312.16

218.35

185.46

Local Service

166.29

165.26

130.01

122.92

Total

677.93

676.37

544.57

524.26





SUBURBS







1973

1975

1980

1985

F reeway

783.68

848.27

823.49

897.03

Arterial

899.35

894.77

702.71

664.58

Local Service

541.25•

557.88

473.33

474.78

Total

2224.28

2300.92

1999.53

2036.39

GRAND TOTAL

2937.21

3013.82

2576.38

2594.11





108





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TABLE VI-14

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S0„ EMISSIONS



FROM ROAD

VEHICLES

(Tons/year)





CENTRAL

BUSINESS

DISTRICT





1973

1975

1980

1985

Freeway

2.57

3.58

6.07

8.57

Arterial

7.60

7.65

7.77

7.88

Local Service

1.10

1.19

1.42

1.66

Total

11.27

12.42

15.26

18.11

CENTRAL CITY



1973

1975

1980

1985

Freeway

65.85

74.83

97.28

119.72

Arterial

102.56

101.82

99.94

98.07

Local Service

52.50

54.62

59.96

65.29

Total

220.91

231.27

257.18

283.08





SUBURBS







1973

1975

1980

1985

Freeway

283.36 '

319.04

408.27

497.50

Arterial

279.92

291.86

321.63

351.41

Local Service

170.83

184.40

218.30

252.21

Total

734.11

795.30

948.20

1101.12

GRAND TOTAL

966.29

1038.99

1220.64

1402.31

109

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o Increased operational activity at the airports,
o Change in the mix of the various classes of aircraft,
o More stringent control of aircraft emissions.

There are no known plans for further control regulations on aircraft,
consequently, the emission factors used in the base-line year emission inven-
tory are used in the projection.

Increased operations and changed mix information for Standiford Airport
and Bowman Field, available from FAA publication, Terminal Area Forecasts
1976 - 1986, are summarized in Table VI-15.

In projecting emissions from the projected aircraft activity the follow-
ing assumptions were made:

o No jumbo jet operations are expected,
o No growth in long-range jets is expected,

o 50% decrease in air carrier turbo-prop operations is expected by 1985,
o The 2 engine, 3 engine mix of medium-range jets will remain consistent,
o The air taxi mix is constant,

o No growth in military aircraft emissions is expected,
o The general aviation mix is constant,

° The growth for activity at Hap's Airport from 1973 to 1975 is

the same as single engine piston general aviation growth at Bowman
Field.

By 1980 Hap's Airport will be replaced by a new Clark County Airport.
Projected operations for 1980 and 1985, given in Table VI-15, are taken from
the draft environmental impact statement prepared by the FAA for this facility.

Using these assumptions projected emissions for the source category were
calculated and are summarized in Tables VI-16 and VI-17.

E. SOLID WASTE

14. On-Site Incineration

Emissions from this source category are projected to increase in accor-
dance with the employment projection developed for the commercial and
institutional fuel usage source category given in Chapter VI, Section 3. In
the case of Jefferson County the growth factor was applied only to the
incinerators operating in 1975.

110

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TABLE VI-15
PROJECTED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS ^



1973

19 75

1980

1985

STANDIFORD AIRPORT









Air Carrier

59270

59090

68600

77400

Air Taxi

5209

5070

6600

8600

Other

52269

64090

90800

148000

Total

116748

128250

166000

234000

BOWMAN FIELD









Air Carrier

84

0

0

0

Air Taxi

2603

2868

3800

4800

Other

294974

313658

399000

563600

Total

297661

316526

402800

568400

HAPS/CLARK COUNTY









Total

18250

19406

26150

38045

Source: Terminal Area Forecasts 1976-1986, Department of

Transportation; FAA. The 1975, 1980, and 1985 values
are linearly interpolated from the 1976, 1981, and 1986
given values.

Ill

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TABLE VI-16

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES

(lbs/year)

1973

1975

1980

1985

STANDIFORD AIRPORT
Air Carrier

Jumbo Jet	0	0	0	0

Long-Range Jet	2870	2870	2870	2870

Medium-Range Jet	23615	23806	28899	33662

Turbo-Prop	7823	7171	5542	3912

Air Taxi

Piston Transport	729

Turbo-Prop	694

710
675

924
879

1204
1146

Military

Piston
Jet

237
1225

237
1225

237
1225

237
1225

General Aviation

Business Jet	513	629	891	1453

Turbo-Prop	466	571	810	1319

Piston Transport	1306	1601	2269	3698

Helicopter	58	71	101	164

Piston	368	451	639	1042

TOTAL STANDIFORD	39904

AIRPORT

BOWMAN FIELD

Air Carrier

Jumbo Jet	0

Long-Range Jet	0

Medium-Range Jet	34

Turbo-Prop	11

Air Taxi

Piston Transport	365

Turbo-Prop	347

40017	45286	51932

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

402	533	673

382	507	640

112

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TABLE VI-16 (CONTINUED)

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES
(lbs/year)

1973	1975	1980	1985

Military

Piston	47

Helicopter	169

General Aviation

Business Jet	3226

Turbo-Prop	3226

Piston Transport	8212

Helicopter	367

Piston	2317

TOTAL BOWMAN FIELD	18321

HAP's AIRPORT

General Aviation

Piston	183

JEFFERSON COUNTY	29.1

TOTAL (tons/year)

CLARK COUNTY	0.1

TOTAL (tons/year)

47

47

47

169

169

169

3430

4364

6164

3430

4364

6164

8732

11108

15690

390

496

701

2464

3134

4427

19446

24722

34675

195

262

381

29.7

35.0

43.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

113

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TABLE VI-17
BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED

AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF SO,,

1973	1975	1980	1985

STANDIFORD AIRPORT
Air Carrier

Jumbo Jet	0

Long-Range Jet	3700

Medium-Range Jet	58174

Turbo-Prop	2845

Air Taxi

Piston Transport	365

Turbo-Prop	625

Military

Piston	119

Jet	3003

General Aviation

Business Jet	1725

Turbo-Prop	420

Piston Transport	653

Helicopter	42

Piston	258

0	0	0

3700	3700	3700

58644	71192	82924

2608	2016	1423

355	462	603

608	792	1032

119	119	119

3003	3003	3003

2115	2997	4884

515	730	1189

801	1134	1849

51	73	119

316	448	731

TOTAL STANDIFORD	71929

AIRPORT

BOWMAN FIELD

Air Carrier

Jumbo Jet	0

Long-Range Jet	0

Medium-Range Jet	85

Turbo-Prop	4

Air Taxi

Piston Transport	182

Turbo-Prop	313

72835	86666 101576

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

201	266	336

345	457	577

114

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TABLE VI-17 (CONTINUED)

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF SO„

1973

1975

1980

1985

Military

Piston	24	24	24	24

Helicopter	514	514	514	514

General Aviation

Business Jet	10851	11538	14678	20733

Turbo-Prop	2640	2807	3571	5044

Piston Transport	4106	4366	3554	7845

Helicopter	264	281	357	504

Piston	1622	1725	2194	3099

TOTAL BOWMAN FIELD	20605	21801	25615	38676

HAP's AIRPORT

General Aviation
Piston

128

136

183

268

JEFFERSON COUNTY
TOTAL (tons/year)

CLARK COUNTY
TOTAL (tons/year)

46.3

0.1

47.3

0.1

56.1

0.1

70.1

0.1

115

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The resulting project emissions are given in Table VI-19.

15.	Open Burning

In Jefferson County, an air pollution control regulation, enacted after
1973, now prohibits all open burning. Emissions from this source category
are projected to be zero.

In Floyd and Clark Counties, base-line year emissions from back-yard
incinerators and agricultural burning were calculated on the basis of popu-
lation growth factors given in Table V-l.

Emissions from the burning of driftwood are projected to be zero
since another means of disposal is now required. The results are shown
in Table VI-20.

F. MISCELLANEOUS

16.	Structural Fires

A review of structural fire statistics maintained by the offices of the
State Fire Marshals has indicated that the 1973 base-line year is typical
of the years 1970-1974. Particulate emissions from this source category are
projected to increase in accordance with the population growth factors
given in Table V-l and are summarized in Table VI-18. SO^ emissions are
negligible.

TABLE VI-18

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
EMISSIONS FROM STRUCTURAL FIRES
(Tons/Tear)



1973

1975

1980

1985

Jefferson County

22.3

23.0

24.7

26.7

Floyd County

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.8

Clark County

3.3

3.6

4.2

4.9

17. Frost Control

There were no base-line year emissions in this source category and
none are projected, since no change in agricultural practice is expected.

116

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TABLE VI—19

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
EMISSIONS FROM ON-SITE INCINERATION
(Tons/Year)

1973	1975	1980	1985





PARTICULATE



Jefferson County

64.7

35.2

38.9

43.0

Floyd County

8.7

8.8

10.0

10.9

Clark County

12.4

13.6

16.4

19.6





so2





Jefferson County

17.1

12.5

13.7

15.2

Floyd County

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.9

Clark County

4.4

4.8

5.8

6.9

117

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TABLE VI-20

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED
EMISSIONS FROM OPEN BURNING
(Tons/Year)

1973 1975 1980 1985





PARTICULATE



Jefferson County

680.0

0

0

0

Floyd County

41.8

42.7

45.6

49.0

Clark County

1589.5

64.0

75.0

87.9







S°2



Jefferson County

0

0

0

0

Floyd County

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.0

Clark County

3.7

4.0

4.7

5.5

118

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18.	Slash Burning

There were no base-line year emissions in this source category and
none are projected, since silvicultural practice is not predicted to change.

19.	Wild Forest Fires

There were no wild forest fires in either Floyd or Clark County in
1973. Although both counties have a slight potential for forest fires, the
minor contribution of this source category to total particulate emissions
and the number of occurrences justifies the assumption of projected zero
emissions. Furthermore, the inability to predict the location of possible fires
makes impossible the determination of the effect on air quality. In the case
of Jefferson County, emissions were projected to remain constant in 1975 and
to decrease to 1.0 tons/year in 1980 and 1985 due to the encroachment of de-
velopment on forest land. SC^ emissions are negligible.

20.	Agricultural Burning

There were no base-line year emissions in this source category and
none are projected, since no change in agricultural practice is expected.

21.	Unpaved Roads

Particulate emissions from this source category in the base-line year
accounted for 15% of total area source emissions in Jefferson County, 65% in
Floyd County and 75% in Clark County. Although it is accepted "that some of the
1973 unpaved roads will be paved by 1980 and 1985 and that little new unpaved
mileage will be added to the network over the decade, it is at this time impossible
to estimate the decrease in unpaved road mileage. Because of the importance of
the source category and the inability to make a rational judgment of its future
contribution to air quality, it has been suggested by the States that emissions
be projected as unchanging and that the effect of paving specific road sections
will be considered in the development of control strategies.

22.	Unpaved Airstrip Operations

There was only one unpaved airstrip in the AQMA-Hap's Airport in Clark
County. Particulate emissions are projected to increase between 1973 and 1975
to 2.7 tons/year of particulate matter in accordance with the projected increase

119

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in operations during this period as shown in Table VI-15. By 1980, with the
opening of Clark County Airport, there will be no unpaved airstrip operations.

23. Tilling Activity

Particulate emissions from this source category are projected to decrease
with the compound decay rate of 1.00%/year used for farm tractor emissions.
The resulting emissions are shown in Table VI-21.

TABLE VI-21

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM TILLING ACTIVITY

(tons/year)

1973 1975	1980	1985

Jefferson County 65.3 64.0	60.9	57.9

Floyd County 31.0 30.4	28.9	27.5

Clark County 222.8 218.4	207.7	197.5

24.	Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock

There were no area sources in this source category and none are projected.

25.	Construction Activity

Projected emissions of particulate matter are projected to increase in
accordance with the growth factors for construction employment shown in
Tables V-4 through V-6. The resulting county-wide emissions are given in
Table VI-22.

TABLE VI-22

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY

(tons/year)

1973 1975	1980	198~

Jefferson County 457.3 487.0	506.7	546.9

Floyd County 10.8 11.1	11.9	12.7

Clark County 17.3 19.4	22.0	25.7

120

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26.	Windblown Dust

In the base-line year emission inventory this source category was small
and consisted of one known storage pile. Information provided by the owner
of the crushed stone operation indicated no change in its size or character
is anticipated. No plans for new permanent storage piles were uncovered.
Emissions, therefore, are projected to remain constant.

27.	Process Loss

Emissions from this source category are projected to remain constant until
1975 and then increase in accordance with the growth in manufacturing employment
given in Tables V-4 through V-6. Projected emissions are shown in Table VI-

TABLE VI-23

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM PROCESS LOSSES

(Tons/Year)



1973

1975

1980

1985





PARTICULATE



Jefferson County

186.0

186.0

204.4

218.4

Floyd County

131.0

131.0

147.4

153.4

Clark County

61.5

61.5

75.8

85.9





so2





Jefferson County

61.0

61.0

67.0

71.6

Floyd County

0

0

0

0

Clark County

0

0

0

0

28. Paved Roads

Emissions from this source category were projected to increase
in accordance with projected growth in VMT shown in Table VI-12. Results
are summarized in Table VI-24. County totals-are determined by reaggregating
totals from census tracts.

G. COUNTY SUMMARIES

Tables VI-25 through VI-3Q are Summaries of county-wide projected emissions.

121

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TABLE VI-24

BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS
FROM PAVED ROADS (TONS/YEAR)



1973

1975

1980

1985

106 VMT

4231.41

4529.66

5275.26

6020.84

Growth Factor

1.000

1.070

1.247

1.423

Emis s ions AQMA

5484.1

5868.0

6838.7

7803.9

Jefferson County

4769.8

5088.0

59 30.4

6764.5

Floyd County

203.8

212.6

233.8

255.4

Clark County

510.6

567.3

674.5

784.0

122

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TABLE VI-25

AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS

JEFFERSON COUNTY
(TON/YEAR)

1973

1975

1980

1985

Residential Fuel

Industrial Fuel

C/I Fuel

Internal Fuel

Farm Tractors

Small Gas Engines

Construction Equipment

Railroads

Vessels

LDV

HDEV

HDDV

Aircraft

Incineration

Open Burning

Structural Fires

Frost Control

Slash Burning

Wild Forest Fires

Agricultural Burning

Unpaved Roads

Unpaved Airstrip

Tilling Activity

Mineral Processing

Construction Activity

Windblown Dust

Process Loss

Paved Roads

305.8
0

409.4
0.6
13.1
50.4

166.9

50.1

22.2
1,986.6

368.7
198.3
29.1
64.7
680.0
¦ 22.3-
0
0

1.5
0

1,681.9
0

65.3
0

457.3
6.7
186.0
4,769.8

320.4
0

466.7
0.5
12.8
52.0
177.7

53.6
23.8

2,613.3

29.7
35.2

0

23.0
0
0

1.5
0

1,681.9
0

64.0
0

487.0
6.7
186.0
5,088.0

356.6
0

605.4
0.4
12.2

55.8
184.9

63.7
28.2

2,234.2

35.0

38.9
0

24.7
0
0

1.0
0

1,681.9
0

60.9
0

506.7
6.7

204.4
5,930.4

402.1
0

759 .3
0.6
11.6

60.4
199.6

75.6

33.5

2,248.5

43.3

43.0
0

26.7
0

0

1.0
0

1,681.9
0

57.9
0

546.9
6.7
218.4
6,764.5

TOTAL

11,536.7 11,323.8

12,032.0

13,181.5

123

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TABLE VI-26

AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS

FLOYD COUNTY
(TON/YEAR)



1973

1975

1980

1985

Residential Fuel

48.3

49 .7

54.1

58.6

Industrial Fuel

22.2

24.3

27.0

28.8

C/I Fuel

15.1

15.4

23.4

29 .3

Internal Fuel

0

0

0

0

Farm Tractors

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.1

Small Gas Engines

4.0

4.1

4.4

4.7

Construction Equipment

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.5

Railroads

13.3

14.2

16.9

20.1

Vessels

6.2

6.6

7.9

9.4

LDV

86.1







HDGV

14.9

109 .2

88.1

84.9

HDDV

8.1







Aircraf t

0

0

0

0

Incineration

8.7

8.8

10.0

10.9

Open Burning

41.8

42.7

45.6

49.0

Structural Fires

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.8

Frost Control

0

0

0

0

Slash Burning

0

0

0

0

Wild Forest Fires

0

0

0

0

Agricultural Burning

0

0

0

0

Unpaved Roads

1,217.1

1,217.1

1,217.1

1,217.1

Unpaved Airstrips

0

0

0

0

Tilling Activity

31.0

30.4

28.9

27.5

Mineral Processing

0

0

0

0

Construction Acitivity

10.8

11.1

11.9

12.7

Windblown Dust

0

0

0

0

Process Loss

131.0

131.0

147.4

153.4

Paved Roads

203.8

212.6

233.8

255.4

TOTAL

1,872.1

1,887.0

1,926.6

1,972.2

124

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TABLE VI-27

AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS

CLARK COUNTY
(TON/YEAR)



1973

1975

1980

1985

Residential Fuel

48.5

54.8

68.1

84.2

Industrial Fuel

61.2

88.3

124.8

170.1

C/I Fuel

45.8

57.5

83.6

113.8

Internal Fuel

0

0

0

0

Farm Tractors

8.5

8.3

7.9

7.5

Small Gas Engines

5.7

6.1

7.2

8.4

Construction Equipment

2.7

3.0

3.4

4.0

Railroads

16.7

17.9

21.2

25.3

Vessels

20.8

22.3

26.4

31.4

LDV

212.8







HDGV

39.4

291.4

254.1

260.6

HDDV

21.2







Aircraft

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Incineration

12.4

13.6

16.4

19.6

Open Burning

1,589.5

64.0

75.0

87.9

Structural Fires

3.3

3.6

4.2

4.9

Frost Control

0

0

0

0

Slash Burning

0

0

0

0

Wild Forest Fires

0

0

0

0

Agricultural Burning

0

0

0

0

Unpaved Roads

7,585.5

7,585.5

7,585.5

7,585.5

Unpaved Airstrip

2.5

2.7

0

0

Tilling Activity

222.8

218.4

207.7

197.5

Mineral Processing

0

0

0

0

Construction Activity

17.3

19.4

22.0

25.7

Windblown Dust

0

0

0

0

Process Loss

61.5

61.5

75.8

85.9

Paved Roads

510.6

567.3

674.5

784.0

TOTAL

10,488.8

9,085.7

9,257.9

9,496.5

125

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TABLE VI-28

AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S09 EMISSIONS

JEFFERSON COUNTY
(TON/YEAR)



1973

1975

1980

1985

Residential F.uel

49 7.4

527.0

673.0

821.9

Industrial Fuel

0

0

0

0

C/I Fuel

703.1

844.2

1,185.9

1,565.2

Internal Fuel

0

0

0

0

Farm Tractors

9.0

8.8

8.4

8.0

Small Gas Engines

24.5

25.3

27.1

29.4

Construction Equipment

199.2

212.1

220.7

238.2

Railroads

98.0

104.9

124.4

148.0

Vessels

6.6

7.1

8.2

9.7

LDV

478.3







HDGV

100.7

901.3

1,058.4

1,215.0

HDDV

260.6







Aircraft

46.3

47.3

56.1

70.1

Incineration

17.1

12.5

13.7

15.2

Open Burning

0

0

0

0

Structural Fires

0

0

0

0

Frost Control

0

0

0

0

Slash Burning

0

0

0

0

Wild Forest Fires

0

0

0

0

Agricultural Burning

0

0

0

0

Unpaved Roads

0

0

0

0

Unpaved Airstrips

0

0

0

0

Tilling Activity

0

0

0

0

Mineral Processing

0

0

0

0

Construction Activity

0

0

0

0

Windblown Dust

0

0

0

0

Process Loss

61.0

61.0

67.0

71.6

Paved Roads

0

0

0

0

TOTAL

2,501.8

2,751.5

3,442.9

4,192.3

126

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TABLE VI-29

AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S02 EMISSIONS

FLOYD COUNTY
(TON/YEAR)

1973	1975	1980	1985

Residential Fuel

89.5

89.6

90.4

91.9

Industrial Fuel

53.7

59.4

66.3

71.0

C/I Fuel

30.7

31.4

52.1

67.3

Internal Fuel

0

0

0

0

Farm Tractors

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

Small Gas Engines

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.3

Construction Equipment

3.6

3.7

4.0

4.2

Railroads

26 .0

27.8

33.0

39.3

Vessels

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.7

LDV

20.7







HDGV

4.1

37.3

41.8

46.2

HDDV

10.6







Aircraf t

0

0

0

0

Incineration

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.9

Open Burning

2.6

2.7

2.8

3.0

Structural Fires

0

0

0

0

Frost Control

0

0

0

0

Slash Burning

0

0

0

0

Wild Forest Fires

0

0

0

0

Agricultural Burning

0

0

0

0

Unpaved Roads

0

0

0

0

Unpaved Airstrips

0

0

0

0

Tilling Activity

0

0

0

0

Mineral Processing

0

0

0

0

Construction Activity

0

0

0

0

Windblown Dust

0

0

0

0

Process Loss

0

0

0

0

Paved Roads

0

0

0

0

TOTAL

250.8

261.3

300.6

333.9

127

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TABLE VI-30

AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO,, EMISSIONS

CLARK COUNTY
(TON/YEAR)

1973	1975	1980	1985

Residential Fuel	82.6

Industrial Fuel	246.9

C/I Fuel	122.5
Internal Fuel 0
Farm Tractors 5.7
Small Gas Engines 2.8
Construction Equipment 3.2

Railroads	32.6
Vessels 6.1

LDV	51.2

HDGV	10.7

HDDV	27.9
Aircraft 0.1
Incinerat ion 4.4
Open Burning 3.7
Structural Fires 0
Frost Control 0
Slash Burning 0
Wild Forest Fires 0
Agricultural Burning 0
Unpaved Roads 0
Unpaved Airstrips 0
Tilling Activity 0
Mineral Processing 0
Construction Activity 0
Windblown Dust 0
Process Loss 0
Paved Roads 0

TOTAL	600.4

87.2	98.3	111.5

394.7	593.2	839.5

158.3	237.8	329.8
0	0	0
5.6	5.3	5.1
3.0	3.5	4.1
3.6	4.1	4.8

34.9	41.4	49.3

6.5	7.6	9.0

100.4	120.4	141.1

0.1	0.1	0.1

4.8	5.8	6.9

4.0	4.7	5.5

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

0	0	0

803.1	1,122.2	1,506.7

128

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CHAPTER VII

PROJECTED AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS
ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT

The following paragraphs discuss the methodology for allocation and
assignment of county-wide projected emissions to the appropriate census
tract.

A. FUEL COMBUSTION

1.	Residential Fuel

Population projections by census tract were calculated and shown in
Table V-l. Assumptions concerning the change in fuel split for residential
heating were listed in Chapter VI, Section 1. With these population pro-
jections, the changing fuel type distribution and the assumption that
dwelling size distribution and heating degree/days do not change, emissions
for each tract were calculated using the computer program described in
Chapter IV, Section 1.

2.	Industrial Fuel

There were no projected emissions in this source category for Jefferson
County. As in the base-line year such emissions were included in either the
point source inventory or the process loss category.

In Floyd County major industrial development is expected South
of New Albany along the river, North of New Albany in the vicinity of 1-265
and Grant Line Road, in Georgetown Township near the intersection of 1-64
and US 150, with minor development near Greenville. For 1975 all growth
was considered to occur in place. For 1985 growth was considered to occur
as follows:

30% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 710.01.

10% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 709.

25% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 706.

20% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 712.

10% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 711.

5% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 710.02.

129

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The 1980 values of emissions from each tract are interpolated between 1975 and
1985.

In Clark County, the 1990 planning map shows three proposed in-
dustrial areas: near the new riverport, the northern part of Jeffersonville
Township and near the new Clark County Airport. With 1975 growth in place
and 1980 interpolated values, 1985 growth is expected to occur 80% of the
1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 507 and 20% in Tract 506.

3.	Commerical and Institutional Fuel

The total commercial and institutional allocation factors for the
base-line year (see Chapter IV, Section 3) were increased in accordance with
the fuel factors from Table VI-5. The results are shown in Table VII-1.

In the case of Floyd County, growth units were adjusted downward to reflect
the greater growth in place expected in that County.

Units of growth were assigned to tracts in accordance with growth
projections of new residential and commercial/institutional development
taken from planning maps. These assignments are listed in Table VII-2.

In general the assignment reflected major growth in the now less-developed
suburbs and in Jefferson County at major developments along the Jefferson
Freeway. See Chapter VII, Section 7 for further discussion of the locations
of such developments.

4.	Internal Fuel Combustion

The one source in this category, the Jeffersontown pumping station,
was assigned to Tract 111.

B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES

5.	Farm Tractors

For 1975 and 1980 projected emissions from this source category for
all counties were allocated to the same tracts as for the base-line year, reduced
by the decay factor suggested in Section VI-5.

For 1985, emissions in Tract 127 were reduced by 50% from 1980. In
Tracts 710.01 and 506 emissions were reduced by 100% from 1980. The re-
maining emissions were allocated tc tracts in proportion to base-line year
emissions.

130

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TABLE VII-1

GROWTH IN COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ESTABLISHMENTS
NORMALIZED TO 1973

1973	1975	1980	1985

Jefferson County

Fuel Factor ^	1.000	1.045	1.154	1.275

Total C/l Factor	1229	1285	1418	1567

Growth Units	0	56	133	149

Floyd County

Fuel Factor(1)	1.000 1.005	1.147	1.252

Total C/l Factor	68 68	78	85

Growth Units	0	10	7

Adjusted Growth Units	0	5	6

Clark County

Fuel Factor(1)	1.000 1.100	1.322	1.579

Total C/l Factor	120 132	159	189

Growth	12	27	30

(1)

Equivalent to growth in employment in trade, finance, insurance, and
real estate, services and government.

131

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TABLE VII-2
ASSIGNMENT OF GROWTH UNITS TO TRACTS

Tract No.

Units

Tract No.

Units

Tract No.

Units

1975

45

46

55

56

75.01

75.02

91

92

100.02

100.03

101.01

101.02
102

103.01

103.02

2
2

2

3
3

1
10

2

2
2
1
1
1
1
1

104

105

106

107

108

109.01

109.02

110.01

110.02
111

119.01

119.02

119.03
120

121.01

121.02

122

123

124.01

124.02

124.03
125

TOTAL

501

503.01
504

505.01

505.02
506

TOTAL

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
56

1

1

2
1
1
6

12

1980

17
28
32
35
38

1
1
1
1
1

114.01

114.02

115.01

115.02
116

1

2

1
10

2

706

707

710.01
TOTAL

1
1
3

132

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TABLE VII-2 (continued)

Tract No.

Units

Tract No.

Units

Tract No.

Units

48

49
54
56
91

102

103.01

103.02
104
107

109.01

110.02
113

1
1
1
1
3

1

2

3
22
13

1
1
1

117.01

117.02

117.03
118

119.02

119.03
120

121.01

121.02
122

124.01

124.02

124.03
TOTAL

4
4
10

3

4

4
10

7

5
3
1
1
5

501

502

503.01

503.02
504

505.01

505.02

506

507

508

509

510
TOTAL

133

1
1
3
1
3
1
3
3
7

1

2
1

27

19 85

6
10
18
26

28

29

33

34

35
47
49
54
56
72

113

114.01

114.02
115.01
116

117.01

117.02

117.03

118

119.01

119.02

119.03
120

121.01

1

1

3
10

2

4
4

10

3
1

4

5

11
8

708

709

710.01

710.02

711

712
TOTAL

501

503.01

503.02
504

505.01

505.02

1
1
1
1
1
1

1
1

1

2
1
9

133

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TABLE VT.I-2 (continued)

Tract No.	Units	Tract No.	Units	Tract No.	Units

91

3

121.02

6

506

5

102

2

122

3

507

5

103.01

2

123

1

508

1

103.02

2

124.01

1

509

3

104

22

124.02

1

510

1

106

1

124.03

5

TOTAL

30

107

14

125

1





110.02

1

127

1





111

1

128

1





TOTAL	149

134

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6.	Small Gasoline Engines

Projected emissions from this source category were allocated in
accordance with the population projections by tract given in Table V-2.

7.	Construction Equipment

In Jefferson County the base-line year emissions were divided into
three categories of construction activity. The same scheme is used for the
allocation of projected county-wide emissions:

1973	1975	1980	1985

Development	50%	50%	60%	75%

Urban Renewal	25%	25%	15%	5%

Highways	25%	25%	25%	20%

For each year emissions resulting from urban renewal projects were
allocated equally among the downtown census tracts: those north of Broadway
between 14th Street and 1-65.

Allocation of emissions from highway projects was based on the extent
of construction in each tract and the dollar value of planned construction
listed in the Transportation Improved Program. These projects are summarized
below:

1975: Hikes Lane from Breckinridge to Bardstown Road.

Jefferson Freeway from Westport to La Grange Road.

1980: Eastern Parkway from Third Street to Algonquin Parkway.

Taylor Boulevard and Bluegrass Intersection.

Jefferson Freeway from 1-65 to Preston Highway.

Preston Highway from Manslick to Cooper Chapel Road.

Riverport Road, north of project limits.

1985: Goss Avenue from Eastern Parkway to Shelby Street.

Greenwood Road from Dixie Highway to Lower River Road.

Preston Highway from Cooper Chapel Road to County Line.

The remaining emissions from this source, category, those resulting
from residential, commercial and industrial development were allocated as
follows:

o For 1975 emissions were allocated to Tracts 100 through 132 in

135

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accordance with base-line year emissions in those tracts. In general this
resulted in emissions from development being limited to suburban tracts
outside the expressway.

o For 1980 and 1985, 25% of development emissions were allocated
to Tract 127, the location of the riverport industrial park. The remainder
\:ere distributed among those tracts along the new Jefferson Freeway with major
development in 1980 at its intersection with Preston Road and in 1985 at its
intersection with Bardstown Road.

Tables VII-3 through VII-5 summarize the allocation of the three types
of emissions from this source category for Jefferson County.

In Floyd and Clark County projected emissions were allocated to tracts
in accordance with projected growth shown on the planning maps. These alloca-
tions are summarized in Tables VII-6 and VIT-7.

8.	Railroads

Projected emissions from both road haul lomotives and switch-yard
operations were allocated in the same way as were the base-line year emissions:
in accordance with the number of train miles in each census tract and on the
size of the switch yards in 1973. This method assumes that each operating
company will participate equally in projected growth in rail traffic with no
new tracks or yards added. The latter assumption has been verified with the
companies.

9.	Vessels

Allocation of projected emissions in this source category was made in
accordance with the length of the River bank in each census tract, similar to
the allocation of base-line year allocations.

C. ROAD VEHICLES

Similar to the base-line year allocation procedure, projected emissions
from this source category were allocated by two methods:

o Those projected emissions which could be associated with specific road
links were assigned to the tract in which the link was located.

o The remaining emissions were then allocated to tracts in accordance
with the population distribution by tract.

136

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TABLE VII-3

ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM
CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE

JEFFERSON COUNTY - 1975 (%)

"ract No.

UR

H

D

Tract No.

UR

H

D

29

2.50





110.01



1.25

0.22

30

2.50





110.02



0.75



31

2.50





111



0.75

10.94

47

2.50





112





0.12

48

2.50





113





0.72

49

2.50





114.02





2.42

57

2.50





115.01





4.17

58

2.50





115.02





0.52

59

2.50





116





2.88

73

2.50





117.01





1.30

100.01





0.24

117.02





0.93

100.02





0.20

119.02





0.53

100.03





0.08

120





0.13

101.01





0.25

121.01





0.17

101.02





0.28

121.02





0.71

102





0.35

122





1.25

103.01





3.38

123





0.55

103.02



9.25



124.01





0.87

104



9.00

0.32

125





5.36

105





0.66

126.01





0.33

106





0.99

126.02





1.09

107



0.50

5.39

127





0.33

108



0.75



128





1.60

109.01



1.25

0.58

132





0.10

109.02



1.50



TOTAL

25.00

25.00

49.96

UR = Urban Renewal
H = High Projects
D = Development Projects

137

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TABLE VII-4

ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM
CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE

JEFFERSON COUNTY - 1980 (%)

Tract No.	UR	H	D	Tract No.	JJR	y	n.

29

1.50



104





1.11

30

1.50



10 7





1.10

31

1.50



111





2.46

35



2.00

114.01





0.54

36



2.25

114.02





0.81

37



2.00

115.01





1.05

43



0.25

115.02





0.89

44



0.25

116





0.58

45



0.25

117.01



3.50

00
00

46



0.25

117.02



3.50

5.12

47

1.50



117.03





0.23

48

1.50



119.01



1.50

1.13

49

1.50



119.02



3.50

4.33

57

1.50



119 .03



1.50

4.32

58

1.50



120



1.50



59

1.50



121.01





2.22

73

1.50



121.02





1.84

75.02



1.31

122





2.42

100.02



0.87

123





0.51

100.03



0.75

124.01





0.75

102



0.19

124.02





0.93

103.01



2.32

124.03





0.69

103.02



1.66

127



2.75

15.00







TOTAL

15.00

25.00

60.01

UR = Urban Renewal
H = High Projects
D = Development Projects

138

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TABLE VII-5

ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM
CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE

JEFFERSON COUNTY - 1985 (%)

Tract No. UR	H	D	Tract No. UR	H	D

29

0.50





104



1.50

30

0.50





107



1.53

31

0.50





114.01



0.74

47

0.50





114.02



1.13

48

0.50





115.01



6.13

49

0.50





115.02



5.94

57

0.50





116



5.50

58

0.50





117.01



1.57

59

0.50





117.02

1.60

1.91

68



1.60



117.03



4.69

69



1.60



119.01



1.58

70



1.60



119.02



0.81

73

0.50





121.01



3.09

75.02





1.83

121.02



2.57

78





0.36

122



3.45

100.02





1.20

123



0.65

100.03





0.92

124.01

1.60

1.05

102





0.27

124.02

1.60

1.31

103.01





3.24

124.03



0.97

103.02





2.32

127

10.40

18.74

TOTAL 5.00 20.00 75.01

UR = Urban Renewal
H = High Projects
D = Development Projects

139

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TABLE VII-6

ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM
CONSTRUCTION EQUIP

FLOYD COUNTY (%)

Trace No.	1975	1980	1985

701

0

0

0

702

0

0

0

703

10

5

5

704

0

0

0

705

5

0

0

706

15

10

10

707

5

0

0

708

15

10

5

709

15

10

10

710.01

15

25

30

710.02

5

5

5

711

5

10

10

7] 2

10

25

25

140

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act

501

502

503

503

504

505

505

506

507

508

509

510

0

0

0

0

0

5

10

30

35

5

10

5

TABLE VII-7

ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM
CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT

CLARK COUNTY (%)

1975

1980

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

10

5

15

10

15

10

25

30

10

25

5

5

10

10

"5

5

141

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TABLE VII-8

DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS

BY ALLOCATION METHOD(%)

Year

CBD

Central
City

Suburbs

Total

1975
Location
Residual
Total

1.09
0.12
1.21

12.11
10.33
22.44

43.35
33.01

76.36

56.55
43.46
100.01

1980
Location
Residual
Total

1.13
0.12
1.25

12.12
9.01

21.13

45.92
31.69
77.61

59.17
40.82
99.99

1985
Locatd on
Residual
Total

1.17
0.12
1.25

12.12
8.09
20.21

47.69
30.81
78.50

60.98
39.02
100.00

142

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TABLE VII-9

DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE SO,, EMISSIONS
BY ALLOCATION METHOD(%T

Year

CBD

Central
City

Suburbs

Total

1975

Location
Residual
Total

1.08
0.11
1.19

12.26
10.00
22.26

43.78
32.77
76.55

57.12
42.88
100.00

1980

Location
Residual
Total

1.13
0.12
1.25

12.20
8.87
21.07

45.71
31.97
77.68

59.04
40.96
100.00

1985

Location
Residual
Total

1.17
0.12
1.29

12.15
8.04
20.19

47.13
31.39
78.52

60.45
39.55
100.00

143

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Projected total AQMA emissions (Table VI-13) were disaggregated into
three subareas and three functional classes. Within each tract in a subarea
base-line year emissions assigned by the link specific method were increased
in proportion to the growth in emissions from freeways and arterials. The
remaining emissions in that subarea were then allocated in accordance with
population. Each subarea was treated separately.

Tables VII-8 and VII-9 shows the breakdown of allocations by the two
methods.

D.	OTHER h'OBILE SOURCES

13.	Aircraft

Projected emissions in this source category were assigned to the tract
in which the airports are located.

E.	SOLID WASTE

14.	On-Site Incineration

The method of allocation of base-line year emissions for this source
varied among the counties because of differences in knowledge concerning the
location of the incinerators. For 1975 projected emissions in Jefferson
and Clark Counties, emissions for each incinerator operating in 1975 were

increased by the growth factors for commercial and institutional fuel
discussed in Chapter VI, Section 3. For 1980 and 1985 these emissions
remained constant and the balance of emissions allocated in accordance with
the C/I factors discussed in Chapter VII, Section 3.

For Floyd County, for all years allocation was in accordance with
C/I factors since the locations of the 1973 incinerators were unknown.

15.	Open Burning

There were no projected emissions for this source category in
Jefferson County.

144

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Emissions from open burning sources in Clark County and Floyd County
were allocated by 20% of projected population factors from Table V-2 to the
Townships of New Albany, Clarksville and Jeffersonville. The remaining
emissions were allocated to the remaining tracts in accordance with area.

F. MISCELLANEOUS

16.	Structural Fires

Projected emissions from this source category were allocated in
accordance with the population projections by census tract given in Table V-2.

17.	Frost Control

There were no projected emissions in this source category.

18.	Slash Burning

There were no projected emissions in this source category.

19.	Wild Forest Fires

There were no projected emissions in this source category in either
Floyd or Clark County. Emissions in Jefferson County were assigned to Tract
120, the location of Jefferson County Memorial Forest.

20.	Agricultural Burning

There were no projected emissions in this source catetory.

21.	Unpaved Roads

As discussed in Chapter VI, Section 21, emissions from this source
category are unchanged from the base-line year.

22.	Unpaved Airstrips

Projected emissions for this source category for 1975 were assigned
to Tract 505.02, the location of Hap's Airport. There were no projected
emissions for 1980 or 1985.

23.	Tilling Activity

Projected emissions for this source category were allocated in accord-
ance with the procedure for allocating emissions from farm tractors given
in Section VII-5.

145

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24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock

There were no projected emissions in this source category.

25• Construction Activity

Allocation of projected emissions from this source category were
made in accordance with the factors given in Tables VII-3 through VII-7.

26.	Windblown Dust

The one source in this category was assigned to Tract 93, the
location of the base-line year source.

27.	Process Loss

In Jefferson County all growth in emissions was assigned to Tract 127,
the location of the new riverport industrial development site.

In Floyd and Clark Counties projected emissions were allocated in
the same manner as were projected emissions from the industrial fuel source
category.

28.	Paved Roads

Allocation of projected emissions from this source category was
made in accordance with the distribution of particulate exhaust emissions.

146

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BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA
SHEET

1. Report No.

2.

3. Recipient's Accession No.

4. Title and Subtitle Louisville Air Quality Maintenance Planning and
Analysis, Volume 1: Area Source Emission Inventory and
Projection

5. Report Date

F ebruary, 197 6

6.

7. Auihor(s)

8. Performing Organization Rept.
No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address

Engineering-Science, Inc.
7903 Westpark Drive
McLean, VA 22101

10. Project/Task/Work Unit No.

Task Order No. 7	

11. Contract/Grant No.

68-02-1380

12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address Environmental Protection Agency,
Region IV, Atlanta, GA; Kentucky Department for Natural Resourc
and Environmental Protection; Indiana State Board of Health;
and Jefferson County Air Pollution Control District [Kentucky].

13. Type of Report & Period
Covered

es

14.

15. Supplementary Notes

16. Abstracts

This report gives the results of the work done "by Engineering-Science, Inc., in support
of the maintenance analysis for the Louisville, Kentucky Air Quality Maintenance Area,
which is made up of Jefferson County, Kentucky and Clark and Floyd Counties, Indiana.
This work fell into four stages: (l) update of the 1973 baseline emission inventory
provided by Jefferson County; (2) allocation of the baseline year emission inventory to
subcounty and/or Air Quality Display Model grid squares; (3) projection of county or
subcounty emission inventories to 1975, 1980, and 1985; and (ii) allocation of the
projected emission inventories to subcounty and/or Air Quality Display Model grid
squares. This work was accomplished in accordance with procedures described in EPA's
various Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. Fifteen cate-
gories of area source emissions were listed and projected for sulfur dioxide and
twenty-four for total suspended particulate.

17. Key Words and Document Analysis.

17a. Descriptors

Air Pollution
Statistical Inference
Sulfur Dioxide
Suspended Particulate

17b. Identifiers/Open-F.nded Ter

17c. COSAT1 Field ''Group

18. A va i labi 1 lty Statement

Unlimited release

19. Security Class (This
Report)

UNCLASSIFIED

w Security Class (This
Page

	 UNCLASSIFIED

21. No. of Pages

22. Price

FORM ntis-35 (rev. 10-73) ENDORSED BY ANSI AND UNESCO.

THIS FORM MAY BE REPRODUCED

USCOMM-DC 8265-P74

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