m 904/9-76-015 LOUISVILLE AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS JUNE 1976 FINAL REPORT VOLUME I AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY AND PROJECTION U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY REGION IV AIR AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS DIVISION ATLANTA, GEORGIA 30309 ------- Library Eisgse© IV u* b^sKaeafad 1%0'isdioa Ageacy 345 Co^istlaiiid Street Murta, Georgia 3036$ . ^^ijA LOUISVILLE AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS BOA CONTRACT 68-02-1380 TASK ORDER NO. 7 FINAL REPORT VOLUME I Submitted to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IV 1421 Peachtree Street, N.E. Atlanta, Georgia 30309 Submitted by Engineering-Science 7903 Westpark Drive McLean, Virginia 22101 June 1976 ------- This air pollution report is issued by Region IV, Environmental Protection Agency, to assist state and local air pollution control agencies in carrying out their program activities. Copies of this report may be obtained, for a nominal cost, from the National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151. This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by Engineering-Science, McLean, Virginia, in fulfillment of EPA Contract 68-02-1380, Task Order 7. This report has been reviewed by Region IV, Air Programs Branch, EPA and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environ- mental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Region IV Publication No. EPA 904/9-76-015. i ------- ABSTRACT The report gives the results of the work done by Engineering-Science, Inc., in support of the maintenance analysis for the Louisville, Kentucky Air Quality Maintenance Area, which is made up of Jefferson County, Kentucky, and Clark and Floyd Counties, Indiana. This work fell into four stages: (1) up- date of the 1973 baseline emission inventory provided by Jefferson County; (2) allocation of the baseline year emission inventory to subcounty and/or Air Quality Display Model grid squares; (3) projection of county or subcounty emis- sion inventories to 1975, 1980, and 1985; and (A) allocation of the projected emission inventories to subcounty and/or Air Quality Display Model grid squares. This work was accomplished in accordance with procedures described in EPA's various Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. Fifteen categories of area source emissions were listed and projected for sulfur dioxide and twenty-four for total suspended particulate. ii ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER II FUEL SURVEY 3 CHAPTER III 1973 BASE-LINE YEAR AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY 8 A: FUEL COMBUSTION 9 1. Residential Fuel 9 2. Industrial Fuel ]1 3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel 12 4. Internal Fuel Combustion .14 13. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES .IS 5. Farm Tractors 15 6. Small Gasoline Engines jh 7. Construction Equipment Ih 8. Railroads 17 9. Vessels J9 C. ROAD VEHICLES 20 10. Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles (LDGV) 27 11. Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicles (HDGV) ?q 12. Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles (HDDV) 30 D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 31 13. Aircraft 31 E. SOLID WASTE 31 14. On-Site Incineration d 15. Open Burning 37 F. MISCELLANEOUS 38 16. Structural Fires 38 17. Frost Control 39 18. Slash Burning 39 19. Wild Forest Fires AO 20. Agricultural Burning 40 21. Unpaved Roads 40 22. Unpaved Airstrip Operations /,3 23. Tilling Activity 43 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock. 45 25. Construction Activity 45 26. Windblown Dust 46 27. Process Loss 4g 28. Paved Roads 57 G. COUNTY SUMMARIES 58 iii ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) Page CHAPTER IV 19 73 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT 61 A. FUEL COMBUSTION 61 1. Residential Fuel 61 2. Industrial Fuel 63 3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel 64 4. Internal Fuel Combustion 64 B. OFF-ROAD VEHCILES 64 5. Farm Tractors 64 6. Small Gasoline Engines 65 7. Construction Equipment 65 8. Railroads 65 9. Vessels 66 C. ROAD VEHICLES 66 D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 69 13. Aircraft 69 E. SOLID WASTE 69 14. On-Site Incineration 69 15. Open Burning 69 F. MISCELLANEOUS 70 16. Structural Fires 70 17. Frost Control 70 18. Slash Burning 70 19. Wild Forest Fires 70 20. Agricultural Burning 70 21. Unpaved Roads 70 22. Unpaved Airstrip Operations 70 23. Tilling Activity 71 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock 71 25. Construction Activity 71 26. Windblown Dust 73 27. Process Loss 73 28. Paved Roads 73 CHAPTER V REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS 75 A. POPULATION PROJECTIONS 75 B. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS 76 C. LAND USE PLANNING 87 iv ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) Page CHAPTER VI COUNTY-WIDE AREA SOURCE EMISSION PROJECTIONS 88 A. FUEL COMBUSTION 88 1. Residential Fuel 88 2. Industrial Fuel 92 3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel 92 4. Internal Fuel Combustion 92 B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES 97 5. Farm Tractors 97 6. Small Gasoline Engines 97 7. Construction Equipment 97 8. Railroads 101 9. Vessels 101 C. ROAD VEHICLES 103 D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 107 13. Aircraft 107 E. SOLID WASTE 110 14. On-Site Incineration 110 15. Open Burning 116 F. MISCELLANEOUS 116 16. Structural Fires 116 17. Frost Control 116 18. Slash Burning 119 19. Wild Forest Fires 119 20. Agricultural Burning 119 21. Unpaved Roads 119 22. Unpaved Airstrip Operations 119 23. Tilling Activity 120 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock 120 25. Construction Activity 120 26. Windblown Dust 121 27. Process Loss 121 28. Paved Roads 121 G. COUNTY SUMMARIES 121 v ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) Page CHAPTER VII PROJECTED AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT 129 A. FUEL COMBUSTION 129 1. Residential Fuel 129 2. Industrial Fuel 129 3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel 130 4. Internal Fuel Combustion 130 B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES 130 5. Farm Tractors 130 6. Small Gasoline Engines 135 7. Construction Equipment 135 8. Railroads 136 9. Vessels 136 C. ROAD VEHICLES 136 D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 144 13. Aircraft 144 E. SOLID WASTE 144 14. On-Site Incineration 144 15. Open Burning 144 F. MISCELLANEOUS 145 16. Structural Fires 145 17. Frost Control 145 18. Slash Burning 145 19. Wild Forest Fires 145 20. Agricultural Burning 145 21. Unpaved Roads 145 22. Unpaved Airstrip Operations 145 23. Tilling Activity 145 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock 146 25. Construction Activity 146 26. Windblown Dust 146 27. Process Loss 146 28. Paved Roads 146 vi ------- Page 5 6 7 18 21 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 32 35 38 43 47 49 52 53 55 59 60 66 66 67 71 77 78 LIST OF TABLES Title FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - JEFFERSON COUNTY FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - FLOYD COUNTY FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - CLARK COUNTY RAILROAD OPERATING DATA OFF-ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSION SUMMARY OFF-ROAD VEHICLE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSION SYMMARY daily vmt by road class 1964 VEHICLE MIX AND VMT HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK STATISTICS FOR KENTUCKY 1973 ANNUAL VMT BY VEHICLE CLASS AND ROAD CLASS CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDGV CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDDV AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AND EMISSIONS JEFFERSON COUNTY OPERATING INCINERATORS STRUCTURAL FIRES AND LOSSES TILLED CROPLAND (Acres) CALCULATION OF CONSTRUCTION EMISSIONS SMALL POINT SOURCES CONSIDERED AS AREA SOURCES JEFFERSON COUNTY 1973 FUEL USE BY SMALL POINT SOURCES - JEFFERSON COUNTY FLOYD COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS CLARK COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS AREA SOURCE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS SUMMARY AREA SOURCE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS SUMMARY 1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL CITY 1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: SUBURBS SUMMARY OF JEFFERSON COUNTY RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL, AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT - 1973 COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT vii ------- LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd) Table No. Title Page V-3 AQMA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT EARNINGS AND FACTORS 83 V-4 JEFFERSON COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS 84 V-5 FLOYD COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS 85 V-6 CLARK COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS 86 VI-1 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM 90 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USAGE VI-2 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL 91 FUEL USAGE VI-3 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AREA SOURCE FUEL 93 DISTRIBUTION VI-4 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM INDUSTRIAL 94 FUEL USAGE VI-5 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL 95 FUEL DISTRIBUTION VI-6 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL 96 AND INSTITUTIONAL FUEL VI-7 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM FARM TRACTORS 98 VI-8 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM SMALL GASOLINE 99 ENGINES VI-9 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION 100 EQUIPMENT VI-10 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED RAILROAD EMISSIONS 102 VI-11 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM VESSELS 104 VI-12 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED ANNUAL TRAFFIC VOLUME 105 VI-13 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM 108 ROAD VEHICLES VI-14 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S02 EMISSIONS FROM ROAD VEHICLES 109 VI-15 PROJECTED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS 111 VI-16 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF 112 PARTICULATES VI-17 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF S02 114 VI-18 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM STRUCTURAL FIRES 116 VI-19 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM ON-SITE 117 INCINERATION VI-20 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM OPEN BURNING 118 viii ------- LIST OF TABLES (Cont'd) Table No. Title Page VI-21 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM 120 TILLING ACTIVITY VI-22 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM 120 CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY VI-23 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM PROCESS LOSSES 121 VI-24 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM PAVED ROADS 122 VI-25 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE 123 EMISSIONS - JEFFERSON COUNTY VI-26 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE 124 EMISSIONS - FLOYD COUNTY VI-27 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE 125 EMISSIONS - CLARK COUNTY VI-28 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO EMISSIONS 126 JEFFERSON COUNTY VI-29 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S02 EMISSIONS 127 FLOYD COUNTY VI-30 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO EMISSIONS 128 CLARK COUNTY VII-1 GROWTH IN COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ESTABLISHMENTS 131 NORMALIZED TO 1973 VII-2 ASSIGNMENT OF GROWTH UNITS TO TRACTS 132 VII-3 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION 137 EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE - JEFFERSON COUNTY 1975 VII-4 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION 138 EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE - JEFFERSON COUNTY 1980 VII-5 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION 139 EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE - JEFFERSON COUNTY 1985 VII-6 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION 140 EQUIPMENT - FLOYD COUNTY VII-7 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION 141 EQUIPMENT - CLARK COUNTY VII-8 DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS BY 142 ALLOCATION METHOD VII-9 DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE S02 EMISSIONS BY 143 ALLOCATION METHOD ix ------- LIST OF FIGURES Page FIGURE IV-1 ALLOCATION WORK SHEET 62 FIGURE IV-2 SAPOLLUT SUBAREAS 68 x ------- CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Engineering-Science, Inc. is under contract to the Enviromental Protec- tion Agency, Region IV to assist the Division of Air Pollution, Kentucky Department for Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, the Division of Air Pollution Control, Indiana State Board of Health, and the Jefferson County, Kentucky Air Pollution Control District in the analysis phase of the air quality maintenance program. One air quality maintenance area is involved, the Louis- ville AQMA, consisting of Jefferson County, Kentucky and Floyd and Clark Counties, Indiana. The maintenance area is identified for both particulate matter and sulfur dioxide. In general, Engineering-Science is responsible for the analysis of area sources and the States for point sources. The Engineering-Science program is divided into four activity areas: 1. Update of the 1973 base-line year emission inventory. 2. Allocation of the base-line year emission inventory to subcounty. and/or AQDM grid squares. 3. Projection of county or subcounty emission inventories to 1975, 1980, and 1985. 4. Allocation of the projected emission inventories to subcounty and/or AQDM grid squares. This final report summarizes the work done which has resulted in the completion of the load sheets for AQDM 1973 calibration, the 1973 NEDS update and AQDM load sheets for 1975, 1980 and 1985. These have been forwarded to the interested parties. Throughout the project, wherever possible and to the degree possible, we have carefully followed the instructions contained in EPA documents and publications. In particular, we have relied on the methodologies contained in the following: o Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors - AP42. o Guide for Compiling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory APTD-1135. 1 ------- o Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. Volume 7: Projecting County Emissions, o Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas, o 40 CFR 51. Maintenance of National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The Jefferson County Air Pollution Control District had completed a 1973 area emission inventory for their portion of the AQMA. For some categories the results of this inventory were used in this report without modification. In most categories, update and changes were indicated. These changes are pointed out in this report. 2 ------- CHAPTER II FUEL SURVEY Annual fuel sales for gas, oil, and coal are reported by states in the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Mineral Industry Surveys (MIS) series. After first removing fuel sales from the state total which are accounted for under specific source categories, e.g., railroad, vessel bunkering, and aircraft fuel, the remaining fuel sales can be converted to Btus and allocated to the county by population: Jefferson County: x 355 x 10"^ = 762 x 10^ Btu/year 3,342,000 Floyd County: x 102 x 10^ = 109 x 10^ Btu/year j,jlo , DUO Clark County: x 102 x 10^ = 156 x 10"*"1 Btu/year J y JXO J (JUL) Allocation from state totals to county totals on a Btu basis is pre- ferable to allocation by each individual fuel type because of the differing fuel split among different areas. However, the population factor is only appropriate for counties that are reasonably typical of the state commercial and industrial character. Jefferson County might be considered typical; Floyd and Clark Counties, on the other hand, would probably not be typical of the average per capita consumption in Indiana, being less than the average because of the concentration of energy intensive industry elsewhere. In an attempt to compensate for this unequal distribution of industry, fuel use by type for all point sources in the State was provided by the Indiana Division of Air Pollution Control. These point source totals were converted to Btus and subtracted from the MIS totals and the remainder allocated to counties by population: ^^The 1973 population estimates were provided by the Kentuckiana Planning and Development Agency (KIPDA). Population estimates and projections are dis- cussed in Chapter V. ------- Floyd County: 57,200 5,316,000 13 11 x 62 x 10 = 67 x 10 Clark County: 81,500 5,316,000 13 11 x 62 x 10 = 95 x 10 A comprehensive fuel survey was made of all fuel dealers in the AQMA in order to provide a firm basis for the fuel usage source categories. Approximately 95% response was received from the letters mailed to each dealer. The results of the survey are shown in Tables II-l through II-3. These values of fuel consumption are the basis for calculating fuel usage source category emissions. In addition a value of 0.0017 tons of wood was assumed burned per dwelling unit-degree day as suggested in APTD 1135. Based on the MIS-allocated total Btus the fuel survey accounted for 110%, 63%, and 93% for Jefferson, Floyd, and Clark Counties respectively. On an area-wide basis the survey accounted for 104% of the MIS allocated Etus. 4 ------- TABLE II-l FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - JEFFERSON COUNTY Residential C/I Industrial Total LPG (1,000 gal) 6,202 514 2,515 9,231 C. O Natural Gas (10 ft ) 28,576 19,091 18,773 66,440 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 10,378 23,129 36,132 69,639 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 0 397 11,360 11,757 Bituminous Coal (tons) 7,628 21,331 80,243 109,202 Coke (tons) 0 0 57 57 Total (Btu) 317X1011 236xlOU 283xl0U 836X101- Percent 37.9 28.2 33.9 100.0 Fraction of MIS total accounted for = x = 762 x 10 5 ------- TABLE II-2 FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - FLOYD COUNTY Residential C/I Industrial Total LPG (1,000 gal) 3,088 151 61 3,300 6 3 Natural Gas (10 ft ) 1,476 798 330 2,604 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 3,816 1,364 2,609 7,789 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 20 20 76 116 Bituminous Coal (tons) 472 94 0 566 Coke (tons) 0 0 0 0 Total (Btu) 24X1011 llxlO11 7xl01L 42X1011 Percent 57.1 26.2 16.7 100.0 Fraction of MIS total accounted for = — = 0.63 67 x 10 In calculating the fraction of the MIS total accounted for, industrial point sources listed below were subtracted from the fuel survey summary. See Section 2 of Chapter III. 1. 13 x 10^ ft"^ of natural gas = 0.1 x 10^ Btu. 6 ------- TABLE 11-3 FUEL SURVEY SUMMARY - CLARK COUNTY Residential C/I Industrial Total LPG (1,000 gal) 4,585 229 425 5,239 Natural Gas (10^ ft"^) 1,802 1,277 3,956 7,035 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 4,095 3,777 1,694 9,566 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 150 861 3,062 4,073 Bituminous Coal (tons) 150 150 0 300 Coke (tons) 0 0 0 0 Total (Btu) 29X1011 19x1011 49X1011 97x1011 Percent 29.9 19.6 50.5 100.0 Fraction of MIS total accounted for = 88 x ^0 _ 0.93 95 x 10 In calculating the fraction of the MIS total accounted for, industrial point sources listed below were subtracted from the fuel survey summary. See Section 2 of Chapter III. 1. 53 tons of coal O.OxlO1 Btu 2. 284,000 gallons of distillate oil 0.4x101 Btu 3. 47,000 gallons of residual oil 0.1x101 Btu 4. 858 x 10^ ft"^ of natural gas = 8.9X101 Btu TOTAL 9.4xlOX Btu 7 ------- CHAPTER III 1973 BASE-LINE YEAR AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY The following paragraphs discuss the data requirements, data sources and availability, emission factors, and the methodology for determining the county-wide emission totals for the 28 area source emission categories which are the responsibility of the contractor. 8 ------- A. FUEL COMBUSTION 1. Residential Fuel Using the fuel totals from Chapter II county-wide particulate emissions from residential .fuel usage were calculated as follows: Fuel Used Emission. . Factor Emissions (tons/year) Jefferson County 3 (3) 1.85 lbs/10 gal ' LPG (1,000 gal) 6,202 5.7 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 28,576 10 lbs/106 ft3 142.9 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 10,378 10 lbs/103 gal 51.9 Bituminous Coal (tons) 7,628 16.4 lbs/ton 62.5 Wood (tons) 3,421 25 lbs/ton 42.8 Total 305.8 Floyd County 1.85 lbs/103 gal ^ LPG (1,000 gal) 3,088 2.9 Natural Gas (10 ft ) 1,476 10 lbs/106 ft3 7.4 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 3,816 10 lbs/103 gal 19.1 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 20 10 lbs/103 gal 0.1 Bituminous Coal (tons) 472 16.4 lbs/ton 3.9 Wood (tons) 1189 25 lbs/ton 14.9 Total 48.3 Clark County 1.85 lbs/103 gal(3) LPG (1,000 gal) 4,585 4.2 Natural Gas (106 ft^) 1,802 10 lbs/106 ft3 9.0 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 4,095 10 lbs/103 gal 20.5 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 150 10 lbs/103 gal 0.8 Bituminous Coal (tons) 150 16.4 lbs/ton ^ 1.2 Wood (tons) 1,020 25 lbs/ton 12.8 Total 48.5 (1) (2) (3) Source: AP 42 . 50% spreader stoker furnaces and 50% hand-fired units burning 6.4% ash coal. 50% propane, 50% butane . ------- Using the fuel totals from Chapter II county-wide SC^ emissions were calculated as follows: Fuel Used % s(1) Emission Factor Emission (tons/year) Jefferson County LPG (1,000 gal) 6,202 0.014 lbs/103 gal 0.0 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 28,576 0.6 lbs/106 ft3 8.6 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 10,378 0.27 142 S lbs/103 gal 198.9 Bituminous Coal (tons) 7,6 28 2.0 38 S lbs/ton 289.9 Total 497.4 Floyd County LPG (1,000 gal) 3,088 0.014 lbs/103 gal 0.0 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 1,476 0.6 lbs/106 ft3 0.4 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 3,816 0.26 142 S lbs/103 gal 70.4 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 20 0.50 157 S lbs/103 gal 0.8 Bituminous Coal (tons) 472 2.00 38 S lbs/ton 17.9 Total 89.5 Clark County LPG (1,000 gal) 4,585 0.014 lbs/103 gal 0.0 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 1,802 0.6 lbs/106 ft3 0.5 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 4,095 0.23 142 S lbs/103 gal 66.9 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 150 0.81 157 S lbs/103 gal 9.5 Bituminous Coal (tons) 150 2.00 38 S lbs/ton 5.7 Total 82.6 (1) Weighted average as reported in fuel survey . 10 ------- 2. Industrial Fuel In Jefferson County the total industrial fuel inventory has been included in either the point source inventory or the process loss category discussed in Section 27 of this chapter. In Floyd County point sources consumed 1,322,000 gallons of 6 3 distillate oil and 13 x 10 ft of natural gas. All of the oil was con- sumed at the power plant and was procured from other than local sources. Consequently, the only industrial fuel to be subtracted from the Floyd 6 3 County survey results is the 13 x 10 ft of natural gas. In Clark. County point sources consumed 106,753 tons of coal, 47,000 gallons of residual oil, 3,484,000 gallons of distillate oil and 6 3 858 x 10 ft of natural gas. Of this 106,700 tons of coal were consumed at the cement plant and 3,200,000 gallons of distillate at the Army Ammunition Depot and were not included in the fuel survey totals. The following fuels were subtracted from the fuel survey totals in Clark County: o Coal - 0 o Residual Oil - 47,000 gallons o Distillate Oil - 284,000 gallons fs 1 o Natural gas - 858 x 10 ft o LPG - 0 Particulate emissions from this source category were calculated as follows: Fuel Emission. . Emissions Used Factor (tons/year) Floyd County LPG (1,000 gal) 61 1.75 lbs/103 gal 0.1 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 317 10 lbs/106 ft3 1.6 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 2,609 15 lbs/103 gal 19.6 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 76 23 lbs/103 gal 0.9 Total 22.2 ^Source: AP-42 . 11 ------- Fuel Used Emission Factor Emissions (tons/year) Clark County LPG (1,000 gal) 425 Natural Gas (10 ft ) 3,098 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 1,410 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 3,015 Total 1.75 lbs/10 gal 10 lbs/106 ft3 15 lbs/103 gal 23 lbs/103 gal 0.4 15.5 10.6 34.7 61.2 SC>2 emissions from this source category were calculated as follows: Fuel Used % S Emission Factor Emissions (tons/year) Floyd County LPG (1,000 gal) 61 6 *3 Natural Gas (10 ft ) 317 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 2,609 0.26 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 76 0.90 Total Clark County LPG (1,000 gal) 425 6 3 Natural Gas (10 ft ) 3,098 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 1,410 0.33 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 3,015 0.90 Total 0.014 lb/10 gal 0 0.6 lb/106 ft3 0.1 142 S lb/103 gal 48.2 157 S lb/103 gal 5.4 53.7 0.014 lb/10 gal 0 0.6 lb/106 ft3 0.9 142 S lb/103 gal 33.0 157 S lb/103 gal 213.0 246.9 3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel In Jefferson County there are six commercial and institutional 6 3 sources included in the point source inventory burning 236 x 10 ft of natural gas, 152,000 gallons of distillate oil, and 4,121 tons of bituminous coal. The quantities must be subtracted out of the fuel survey totals given in Table II-l before calculating emissions from area commercial and institu- tional fuel usage sources. 12 ------- There are no commercial or institutional point sources in Floyd and Clark Counties. Emissions are calculated on the total fuel usages given in Tables II-2 and II-3. Particulate emissions from this source category were calculated as follows: Emission Emissions Fuel Used Factor (tons/year) Jefferson County LPG (1,000 gal) 514 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 18,855 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 22,977 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 397 Bituminous Coal (tons) 17,210 Total Floyd County LPG (1,000 gal) 151 Natural Gas (106 ft3) . 798 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 1,364 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 20 Bituminous Coal (tons) 94 Total Clark County LPG (1,000 gal) 229 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 1,277 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 3,777 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 861 Bituminous Coal (tons) 150 Total 1.85 lbs/10" 10 lbs/106 ft gal 3 15 lbs/10 gal 23 lbs/103 gal 16.0 lbs/ton(1) 1.85 lbs/10 gal 10 lbs/106 ft3 15 lbs/103 gal 23 lbs/103 gal 12.8 lbs/ton(2) 1.85 lbs/10 gal 10 lbs/106 ft3 15 lbs/103 gal 23 lbs/103 gal 12.8 lbs/ton (2) 0.5 94.3 172.3 4.6 137.7 409.4 0.1 4.0 10.2 0.2 0.6 15.1 0.2 6.4 28.3 9.9 1.0 45.8 ^Spreader stoker furnace 8.0% ash. (2) Spreader stoker furnace 6.4% ash. 13 ------- SO^ emissions from this source category were calculated as follows: Fuel Used Emission Factor Emissions (tons/year) Jefferson County LPG (1,000 gal) 514 Natural Gas (10 6 ft"*) 18,855 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 22,977 0.25 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 397 0.90 Bituminous Coal (Tons) 17,210 0.80 Total Floyd County LPG (1,000 gal) 151 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 798 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 1,364 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 20 Bituminous Coal (tons) 94 Total Clark County LPG (1,000 gal) 229 Natural Gas (106 ft3) 1,277 Distillate Oil (1,000 gal) 3,777 Residual Oil (1,000 gal) 861 Bituminous Coal (tons) 150 Total 0.014 lbs/10 gal 0.6 lbs/106 ft3 142 S lbs/103 gal 157 S lbs/103 gal 38 S lbs/ton 0.014 lbs/10 gal 0.6 lbs/106 ft3 0.27 142 S lbs/103 gal 0.50 157 S lbs/103 gal 2.00 38 S lbs/ton 0.014 lbs/10 gal 0.6 lbs/106 ft3 0.23 142 S lbs/103 gal 0.81 157 S lbs/103 gal 2.00 38 slbs/ton 0.0 5.7 407.8 28.0 261.6 703.1 0.0 0.2 26.1 0.8 3.6 30.7 0.0 0.4 61.7 54.7 5.7 122.5 4. Internal Fuel Combustion There is one known internal fuel combustion source not included in the point source inventory. This is the Texas Gas Transmission Company, Jefferson- 6 3 town pumping station which used 123 x 10 ft of natural gas in 1973. With an 6 3 emission factor from AP-42 of 10 lbs/10 ft , the emissions are 0.6 tons/year of 6 3 particulates; at 0.6 lbs/10 ft SO^ emissions are negligible. 14 ------- B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES 5. Farm Tractors The U.S. Department of Agriculture county extension agents provided information concerning farm tractor number, gasoline/diesel split, and usage. The number of LPG fueled tractors was considered insignificant. The informa- tion is given below. Jefferson - 3000 tractors 80% gasoline @ 150 gal/year 20% diesel @ 850 gal/year Floyd - 700 tractors 80% gasoline @ 500 gal/year 20 % diesel @ 750 gal/year Clark - 1400 tractors 80% gasoline @ 600 gal/year 20 % diesel @ 900 gal/year 15 ------- Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in Tables III-2 amd III-3. 6. Small Gasoline Engines Fuel usage from small gasoline engines was estimated using the factor 13 gal/persori-year suggested in Volume 7 of the Guidelines. The 1973 population figures provided by KIPDA are as follows: Jefferson 717,600 Floyd 57,200 Clark 81,500 Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in Tables III-2 and III-3. 7. Construction Equipment APTD-1135 and Volume 7 suggest a factor of 5,000 gallons of diesel construction equipment fuel usage per nonbuilding construction employee (NBC). g On a state-wide basis, this amounts to 1.78 x 10 gal in Kentucky and g 2.86 x 10 gal in Indiana. When compared to the total off-highway diesel fuel consumption given in the MIS (3.78 x 10 in Kentucky and 4.10 x 10 in Indiana), it is apparent that the factor is inappropriate. In addition, the value of 7.4 gal/person-year for all other diesel fuel consumption suggested in Volume 7 appears too large. Consequently, the two source categories were combined and calculated as follows: County Total = State off-highway from MIS x ^ounty employee _ County J b J State NBC employee tractor Nonbuilding construction employment is obtained from County Business Patterns. 7 12 498 Jefferson: 3.78 x 10 x 23 522 ~ 510»000 = 12>789,488 gal 7 468 Floyd: 4.10 x 10 x 57 2?2 - 105,000 = 230,033 gal 7 6^7 Clark: 4.10 x 10 x 5? 2?2 ~ 252«000 = 204,017 gal Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in Tables III-2 and III-3. 16 ------- 8. Railroads The Jefferson County emission inventory for 1972 estimated fuel usage within the county as follows: Burlington Northern Illinois Central K&IT Railroad Louisville and Nashville Southern Penn Central 24,570 gal 302,460 941,956 3,178,792 3,202,279 20,800 TOTAL 7,670,857 gal For the 1973 emission inventory conducted by the Jefferson County Air Pol- lution Control District (JCAPCD), using an 8.8% growth factor (MIS shows a 5.8% growth in railroad fuel usage for Indiana and 8.8% for Kentucky), es- timated total fuel usage for the county was 8,345,892 gal or nearly 15% of the state total reported in the MIS. It is difficult to determine if this total was indeed consumed within the county or whether it was merely dis- pensed within the county and much of it used elsewhere by road-haul loco- motives. Another approach might be taken based on railroad operating data. These data obtained from the railroads and the Official Railway Guide are shown in Table III-l. Statistical Abstracts of the United States provides information on fuel consumption per train mile. This value for 1972 was 9.0 gal/train- mile. (Total train miles = 451 x 10^; fuel consumed = 4,071 x 10^ gallons.) A study conducted by Southwest Research Institute provides a check on this value, where it is estimated that 64.4 x 10 locomotive hours were used for all road-haul service at 0.46 lb fuel/bhp hour with a load factor of 0.38. , 451 x 10 At the nation-wide average speed of 20 mph, total train hours were : 6 64.4 22.6 x 10 and locomotives/train were , = 2.8. Using the nation-wide LI. o average value for road-haul locomotive power, 2,278 hp, and the load factor, a value for fuel consumption/train mile can be calculated: 2.8 loco/train x 2,278 bhp/loco x 0.38 x 0.46 lb fuel/bhp-hour _ 7 g gal 7.12 lbs/gal x 20 miles/hour ' train mi This is reasonable because the total fuel consumption from the Abstracts includes switch engine operations, auxiliary equipment, and probably some space heating. Further, the SRI study estimated that 96% of locomotive fuel was used in road-haul service and 4% in switching operations. 17 ------- In calculating fuel usage, we have used 8.0 gal/train mile for road haul operations and 1.0 gal/train mile for yard operations. Fuel usage for the K&IT RE. was taken from the 1972 inventory listed above and multiplied by 1.088 and assigned to Jefferson County. Total K&IT RR fuel use for i Floyd and Clark counties was proportional to total train miles traveled in each county. Values are listed below: Jefferson = 1.088 x 941,956 = 1,024,848 F1°yd = 1^x 1,024,848 = 272,722 0/\O Q Clark = x 1,024,848 = 341,240 Fuel usage and emissions from this source category are summarized in Tables III-2 and III-3. As can be noted, the total emissions are approximately half those estimated in the updated 1972 emission inventory. This difference was reconciled with the JCAPCD. It was agreed that the new estimates of fuel use would be used in the new emission inventory. TABLE III-l RAILROAD OPERATING DATA Train Miles per Day Jefferson County AMTRAK 27.5 Illinois Central 84.8 Louisville and Nashville/C&O 653.4 Southern 141.6 Penn Central 2.1 TOTAL 909.4 Floyd County Southern/Burlington Northern 112.0 Louisville and Nashville/Milw. 130.0 TOTAL 242.0 Clark County AMTRACK 60.5 Penn Central 24.3 Louisville and Nashville/Milw. 165.0 B&O 53.0 TOTAL 302.8 18 ------- 9. Vessels The 1972 emission inventory conducted by JCAPCD estimated that 819,000 gallons of diesel fuel were consumed in Jefferson County by riv&r-barge traffic. This was increased by 5% for 1973, to 859,950, to account for growth. According to Waterborne Commerce of the United States, 1973, there were 9,103,576 tons of river-borne traffic into or out of Louisville Port. If the average trip length was 18.5 miles (this assumes that upbound and g downbound traffic were equal), there were 1.68 x 10 ton miles of commerce. At 590 Btu/ton mile^ and 140,000 Btu/gal, this traffic would consume 709,754 gallons of fuel. This, of course, does not include through traffic which is included in the total of 859,950, and is judged to be a better estimate of fuel consumed. In order to account for fuel consumed on that stretch of the river outside Jefferson County, but bordering Clark County, the Jefferson County fuel must be increased in proportion to total length of river within the AQMA to that in Jefferson County: ly1! x 859,950 = 1,320,139 This total is allocated to the five counties bordering the river in accordance with the length of river in each. In arbitrary units of length: Jefferson x 1,320,139 = 422,444 gal Floyd x 1,320,139 = 118,813 gal Clark x 1,320,139 = 396,042 gal 18 Oldham — x 1,320,139 = 237,625 gal Harrison x 1,320,139 = 145,215 gal Fuel usage and emissions from this source category for Jefferson, Floyd, and Clark Counties are summarized in Tables III-2 and III-3. Based on values of 500 and 680 Btu/ton-mile reported in The Effect of Fuel Price Increases oil Energy Intensiveness on Freight Transport, RAND Corporation, 1971, and Energy Intensiveness of Passenger and Freight Transport Modes, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1973, respectively. 19 ------- The numbers of gasoline recreational vessels registered in the three counties were obtained from state boat registration data: Jefferson 23,070 1,836 2,631 27,537 Floyd Clark Total According to the Kentucky Department of Transportation, Boating Safety Enforcement Division, approximately 10% of these boats regularly operate on the Ohio River, and few are trailored in from other areas. It was further estimated by the Division that about 30% of this number of Federally docu- mented recreation-size boats operated on the river. Because of the size of the boats each would probably use more than the 160 gal/year suggested in APTD-1135, or say 240 gal/year. Total fuel consumption = 27,537 x 0.10 x 1.3 x 240 = 859,154 gal. Fuel usage and emissions for this source category are summarized in Tables III-2 and III-3. Allocation to counties is made in the same way as diesel vessels. C. ROAD VEHICLES Total daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by road class for the three- county area for 1970 and predicted VMT for 1995 were obtained from Vogt, Sage and Pflum, Inc., a Cincinnati Consulting firm which has worked on a number of projects in the area. The 1995 VMT projections were made with SAPOLLUT, a traffic model developed by the U.S. Department -of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. These projections are from the latest run of the model and are based on trip tables updated in 1970. The Kentucky Depart- ment of Transportation plans no further update for two or three years. Linear interpolation was used to estimate the 1973 data. These data are shown in Table III-4. 20 ------- TABLE III-2 OFF-ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSION SUMMARY Fuel Use (103 gal) EF (1) (lbs/10 gal) Emissions (tons/year) Jefferson County Gasoline farm tractors Diesel farm tractors Small gasoline engines Construction diesel Road-haul locomotives Rail-yard operations Diesel vessels Gasoline Vessels TOTAL Floyd County Gasoline farm tractors Diesel farm tractors Small gasoline engines Construction diesel Road-haul, locomotives Rail-yard operations Diesel vessels Gasoline Vessels TOTAL Clark County Gasoline farm tractors Diesel farm tractors' Small gasoline engines Construction diesel Road-haul locomotives Rail-yard operations Diesel vessels Gasoline Vessels TOTAL 360 510 9,329 12,789 2,657 1,357 422 275 280 105 744 230 707 361 119 77 672 252 1,060 204 884 452 396 258 8.0 45.7 10.8 26.1 25.0 25.0 105.0 0.0 (2) (3) (A) 8.0 45.7 10.8 26.1 25.0 25.0 105.0 0.0 8.0 45.7 10.8 26.1 25.0 25.0 105.0 0.0 1.4 11.7 50.4 166.9 33.2 16.9 22.2 0.0 302.7 1.1 2.4 4.0 3.0 8.8 4.5 6.2 0.0 30.0 (1) Source: AP-42. (2) 10% 2-stroke engines, 90% 4-stroke engines. (3) Mean of all equipment types. (4) From AP-42, Section 3.2.3 dated 2/72. The newer revision dated 1/75 has no emission factor for particulates. 21 ------- TABLE III-3 OFF-ROAD VEHICLE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSION SUMMARY Fuel Use EF (1) Emissions (10 gal) (lbs/10 gal) (tons/year) Jefferson County Gasoline farm tractors Diesel farm tractors Small gasoline engines Construction diesel Road-haul locomotives Rail-yard operations Diesel vessels Gasoline vessels TOTAL Floyd County Gasoline farm tractors Diesel farm tractors Small gasoline engines Construction diesel Road-haul locomotives Rail-yard operations Diesel vessels Gasoline vessels TOTAL Clark County Gasoline farm tractors Diesel farm tractors Small gasoline engines Construction diesel Road-haul locomotives Rail-yard operations Diesel vessels Gasoline vessels TOTAL 360 510 9,329 12,789 2,657 1,357 422 275 280 105 744 230 707 361 119 77 672 252 1,060 204 884 452 396 258 5.31 31.2 5.26 31.15 57.0 32.9 27.0 6.4 (2) (3) (4) (4) 5.31 31.2 5.26 31.15 57.0 32.9 27.0 6.4 5.31 31.2 5.26 31.15 57.0 32.9 27.0 6.4 1.0 8.0 24.5 199.2 75.7 22.3 5.7 0.0 337.3 0.7 1.7 2.0 3.6 20.1 5.9 1.6 0.2 35.8 1.8 3.9 2.8 3.2 25.2 7.4 5.3 0.8 50.4 (1) Source: AP-42. (2) 10% 2-stroke engines, 90% 4-stroke engines. (3) Mean of all equipment types. (4) The JCAPCD inventory for 1972 determined an average sulfur content of 0.231%. This value has been verified with the K&ITRR and used for all rail yard fuel usage. A value of 0.4% sulfur in fuel from AP-42 was used for road-haul fuel usage. 22 ------- TABLE III-4 DAILY VMT BY ROAD CLASS Class 1970 1973 1995 Freeway 2,901,333 3,602,949 8,748,137 Arterial 4,892,469 5,112,784 6,728,431 Local 2,573,545 2,877,241 5,104,346 TOTAL 10,367,347 11,592,975 20,580,914 An additional source of VMT was the original 1964 comprehensive trans- portation study, which, in addition, provided data on heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) and light-duty vehicle (LDV) mix. However, the road classification system varied between the two data sources. These data are given in Table III-5. 23 ------- TABLE III-5 1964 VEHICLE MIX AND VMT Functional Classification Total Daily VMT % by Vehicle Type LDV HDV Collector Urban Rural 690,000 525,000 96.6 94.9 3.4 5.1 Arterial Urban Rural 2,104,000 631,000 93.1 92.1 6.9 7.9 Major Street Urban Rural 567,000 835,000 89.7 89.2 10.3 10.8 Freeway Urban Rural 1,416,000 302,000 89.7 71.8 10.3 28.2 TOTAL 7,070,000 Combining collector and major streets into the local service class and calculating the weighted average mix gives the following results: Freeway (10.3 x 1,416,000) + (28.2 x 302,000) HDVMT = 1,718,000 " • 4/° LDVMT = = 86.6% Arterials lir.niT (6.9 x 2,104,000) + (7.9 x 63,000) _ HDVMT = 2,735,000 ~ 7"1/o LDVMT = 92.9% 24 ------- Local Service (3.4 x 690,000) + (5.1 x 525,000) HDVMT = 2,617,000 . (10.3 x 567,000) + (10.8 x 835,000) „ + 2,617,000 " /,b/° LDVMT = =92.4% The LDVMT/HDVMT mix from the 1964 data is applied to the SAPOLLUT output to derive the 1973 VMT by HDV/LDV split. The 1972 Census of Transportation provides information on the split between heavy-duty diesel vehicle (HDDV) and heavy-duty gasoline vehicle (I1DGV) . These data are shown in Table III-6. TABLE III-6 HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK STATISTICS FOR KENTUCKY Vehicle Type 106 VMT HDDV (%) 106 HDDVMT Single Unit 2-Axle 886 0.4 3.5 Single Unit 3-Axle 174 19.8 34.5 Combination 3-Axle 27 29.0 7.8 Combination 4-Axle 150 31.1 46.7 Combination 5-Axle 433 75.6 327.3 TOTAL 1,670 419.8 L 1 Q O Total % HDDV = , x 100% = 25.1% 1 • o /U The information contained in Tables III-4 through III-6 is combined to produce Table III-7. 25 ------- TABLE 111-1 1973 ANNUAL VMT BY VEHICLE CLASS AND ROAD CLASS (106 VMT) Class LDVMT HDGVMT HDDVMT TOTAL Freeway 1,139 132 44 1,315 Arterials 1,734 99 33 1,866 Local Service 970 60 20 1,050 TOTAL 3,843 291 97 4,231(1' This compares with the earlier 1973 estimate made by the JCAPCD of 4,295 x 10 VMT and to a 1972 estimate made by KIPDA of 3913.6 VMT. The primary difference in the earlier estimate and this one is in the HDGVMT/HDDVMT split. In the earlier study it was determined that 7% of HDV was diesel-powered and this value was assumed to represent the VMT split. In this study the estimate was based on VMT split rather than vehicle split. The higher value reflects the greater number of miles driven per year by HDDV as opposed to HDGV. It was agreed by the JCAPCD that the correct value probably lies between the two extremes, but that the more conservative 25.1% value should be used for the 1973 emission inventory. Since no different values are available for the projection years this conservative approach is warranted. 26 ------- 10. Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles (LDGV) Emissions from this source category are calculated using the emissions factors from AP-42: 0.54 g/mile for particulate matter and 0.13 g/mile for SO2. The latest revision, Revision 5 dated April 16, 1975, draft to AP-42 has added a new road vehicle emission factor class: light- duty gasoline-power trucks, defined as trucks less than 8,500 lbs, gross vehicle weight. The particulate emission rate for this new class is the same as for the new automobile class and the old LDGV class, 0.54 g/mile. However, the SO2 emission factor has been raised from 0.13 g/mile to 0.18 g/mile based on fewer miles/gal for the new class. There is no data available from which the VMT for the light truck class can be calculated. However, it is known from the 1972 Census of Trans- portation that 89.2% of trucks less than 10,000 lbs are pickup or panel types. A greater percent of those less than 8,500 lbs would be pickup or panel. These types have similar engines and operating characteristics as do automobiles; consequently they should have similar emission charac- teristics . Furthermore, the VMT by the new class is only a small percentage of the VMT by automobiles. It is believed that insignificant differences in total SO2 will result from retaining the old single classification. Another revision to AP-42 applies to the use of unleaded fuel both with and without catalytic converters. The widespread use of unleaded fuel, which reduces exhaust particulate emissions from 0.34 g/mile to 0.05 g/mile did not take effect until 1974 and can be safely and conservatively ignored for the 1973 inventory. However, this will have to be taken into consider- ation for the years of projection. 27 ------- Total emissions for the AQMA are as follows: „ . . , . 0.54 x 3843 x 106 r . Particulates: —— = 2285.5 tons/year S02: 454 x 2000 0.13 x 3843 x 10 454 x 2000 550.2 tons/year Allocation to census tracts is made by the methods described in Chapter IV, Section C and summed for county totals. Particulate : Jefferson County Floyd County Clark County SO, Jefferson County Floyd County Clark County 1986.6 tons/year 86.1 tons/year 212.8 tons/year 478.3 tons/year 20.7 tons/year 51.2 tons/year 28 ------- 11. Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicles (HDGV) Emissions from this source category are calculated using the emission factors from AP-42: (0.91 + 0.20T) g/mile for particulates, where T is the number of tires divided by 4, and 0.36 g/mile for SO2. The mean number of tires can be calculated from the data in Table III-6 and is given in Table III-8. The particulate emission factor is O I O 0.91 + (0.20 x = 1.32 g/mile TABLE III-8 CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDGV Vehicle TvDe 106 HDGMT No. Tires 10^ Tire Miles Single Unit 2-axle 882.5 6 5,295.0 Single Unit 3-axle 139.5 10 1,395.0 Combination 3-axle 19.2 10 192.0 Combination 4-axle 103.3 14 1,446.2 Combination 5-axle 105.7 18 1,902.6 Total 1,250.2 10,230.8 10 230 8 Mean No. Tires = 1*250*2 = Total emissions for the AQMA are as follows: Particulate: ^ = 423.0 tons/year 454 x 2000 0.36 x 291 x 106 , . 2: 454 x 2000 = 115 *4 tons/year Allocation to counties is made by the method described for LDGV. Particulate : Jefferson County - 368.7 tons/year Floyd County - 14.9 tons/year Clark County - 39.4 tons/year S°2 Jefferson County - 100.7 tons/year Floyd County - 4.1 tons/year Clark. County - 10.7 tons /year 29 ------- 12. Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles (HDDV) Emissions from this source category are calculated using the emission factors from AP-42: (1.30 + 0.20T) g/mile for particulates and 2.8 g/mile for SC^. Calculation of mean number of tires is shown in Table III-9. The particu- late emission factor is 1.30 + (0.20 x 16!65) = 2.13 g/mile 4 TABLE III-9 CALCULATION OF MEAN NUMBER OF TIRES FOR HDDV f\ 6 Vehicle Type 10 HDDMT No. Tires 10 Tire Miles Single Unit 2-axle 3.5 6 21.0 Single Unit 3-axle 34.5 10 345.0 Combination 3-axle 7.8 10 78.0 Combination 4-axle 46.7 14 653.8 Combination 5-axle 327.3 18 5,891.4 Total 419.8 6,989.2 6,989.2 _ ,, Mean No. Tires = —419~~8 ~ Total emissions for the AQMA are as follows: „ i j_ 2.13 x 97 x 106 r ^ , Particulate: ,... . = 227.5 tons/year 454 x 2000 SO • 2.8 x 97 x 106 tons/vear 2* 454 x 2000 ^.1 tons/year Allocation to counties is made by the method described for LDGV. Particulate : Jefferson County - 198.3 tons/year Floyd County - 8.1 tons/year Clark County - 21.2 tons/year S02: Jefferson County - 260.6 tons/year Floyd County - 10.6 tons/year Clark County - 27.9 tons/year 30 ------- D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 13. Aircraft Aircraft operating data were obtained from FAA reports for the four statistical categories for which data are collected: air carrier, air taxi, military, and general aviation. These categories were further broken down into subcategories by information provided locally by airport managers, airline operating schedules, and landing fee reports. The following assumptions have been made based on best available information, primarily that gathered by the JCAPCD. MediunwRange Jet - 78% 2 engine 18% 3 engine 4% 4 engine Air Taxi - 66.7% turbo-prop 33.3% piston transport General Aviation - 10% business jet 5% turbo-prop 5% piston transport 1% helicopter 79% piston Operating data and emissions are summarized in Table 111-10. E. SOLID WASTE 14. On-Site Incineration Information concerning the location and operating characteristics of on-site incinerators was obtained from JCAPCD in the case of Jefferson County and from the Indiana Division of Air Pollution Control in the cases of Floyd and Clark Counties. 31 ------- TABLE 111-10 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AND EMISSIONS 1 Particulate Sulfur Dioxide Operations/ No. of LTOs EF Emission EF Emission Year Engines (lbs/LTO-eng) (lbs/yr) (lbs/LTO-eng) (lbs/year) STANDIFORD AIRPORT Air Carrier 59,270 Jumbo Jet 4 0 1.30 0 1.82 0 Long-Range Jet 4 593 1.21 2870.1 1.56 3700.3 Medium-Range Jet 2.26 25,436 0.41 23615.3 1.01 58174.3 Turbo-Prop 2 3,556 1.10 7823.2 0.40 2844.8 Air Taxi 5,209 Piston Transport 1.5 868 0.56 729.1 0.28 364.6 Turbo-Prop 2 1,736 0.20 694.4 0.18 625.0 Military 5,646 Piston 1 84 7 0.28 237.2 0.14 118.6 Jet 2 1,976 0.31 1225.1 0.76 3003.5 General Aviation 46,623 Business Jet 2 2,331 0.11 512.8 0.37 1724.9 Turbo-Prop 2 1,166 0.20 466.4 0.18 419.8 Piston Transport 2 1,166 0.56 1305.9 0.28 653.0 Helicopter 1 233 0.25 58.3 0.18 41.9 Piston 1 18,416 0.02 368.3 0.014 257.8 TOTAL STANDIFORD AIRPORT 39906.1 71928.5 ------- TABLE 111-10 (cont'd) AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AND EMISSIONS Particulate Sulfur Dioxide Operations/ No. of LTOs EF Emission EF Emission Year Engines (lbs/LTO-eng) (lbs/yr) (lbs/LTO-eng) (lbs/year) BOWMAN FIELD Air Carrier 84 Jumbo Jet 4 0 1.30 0 1.82 0 Long-Range Jet 4 0 1.21 0 1.56 0 Medium-Range Jet 2.26 37 0.41 34.3 1.01 84.5 Turbo-Prop 2 5 1.10 11.0 0.40 4.0 Air Taxi 2,603 Piston Transport 1.5 434 0.56 364.6 0.28 182.3 Turbo-Prop 2 868 0.20 347.2 0.18 312.5 Military 1,689 Piston 1 169 0.28 47.3 0.14 23.7 Helicopter 1 676 0.25 169.0 0.76 513.8 General Aviation 293,285 Business Jet 2 14,664 0.11 3226.1 0.37 10851.4 Turbo-Prop 2 7,332 0.22 3226.1 0.18 2639.5 Piston Transport 2 7,332 0.56 8211.8 0.28 4105.9 Helicopter 1 1,466 0.25 366.5 0.18 263.9 Piston 1 115,848 0.02 2317.0 0.014 1621.9 TOTAL BOWMAN FIELD 18320.9 20603.4 HAP's AIRPORT General Aviation 18,250 Piston 1 9,125 0.02 182.5 0.014 127.8 TOTAL JEFFERSON COUNTY (tons/year) 29.1 46.3 TOTAL CLARK COUNTY (tons/year) 0.1 0.1 ------- In Jefferson County there are 58 currently operating incinerators, as listed in Table III-ll, for which 1973 operating data are available. These are in addition to an average of 106 incinerators which were operating in 1973 for which firm operating data are not available. For the latter it was estimated by the JCAPCD that each was operated 6 days per week with an average charge of 250 pounds. In general these were older single-chamber and multichamber units which did not meet regulatory specifications. It was suggested by the JCAPCD that the emission factor for single-chamber incinerators from AP-42, 15 lbs/ton for particulates and 2.5 lbs/ton for SO2, would be appropriate for these older units. Emissions are calculated to be: 106 x 250 x 6 x 52 x 15 Particulates: 2,000 x 2,000 = 31.0 tons/year SO : 106 x 250 x 6 x 52 x 2.5 tons/year 2 2,000 x 2,000 Total emissions from this source category (the sum of those above and those from Table III-ll) are 64.7 tons/year of particulates and 17.1 tons/year of SOi. An accurate count of incinerators for Clark County was available from the County Health Department. There were 22 inu]tichamber units operating in 1973 with size and operating schedules comparable to those in Table III-ll. Assuming a charge of 161 tons/year (the averape charge from Table III-ll) and an emission factor of 7 lbs/ton, emissions are: Particulates: * qqq* = 1^.4 tons/year SV 1612,000'2,1 Emissions for "Floyd County were estimated by population proportion from those in Clark County: Particulates: g^'gQQ x 12*4 = 8"7 tons/year S02; ffJiS * 4'4 " 3'X 34 ------- No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 TABLE III-ll JEFFERSON COUNTY OPERATING INCINERATORS Charge Emissions (tons/year) Location Type (tons/year) Particulates S02 1501 Lexington Road MC 31.2 0.11 0.04 510 E. Chestnut MC Emergency only insi gnificant 8th & Liberty MC 728.0 2.55 0.91 3612 Brownsboro Road MC 145.6 0.51 0.18 2000 Nomis Place MC 327.6 1.27 0.46 2701 Grassland Drive MC 26.0 0.09 0.03 4000 Oaklawn Drive MC 6.3 0.02 0.01 10615 National Turnpike MC 5.2 0.02 0.01 Farm Valley at Grade Lane MC 249.6 0.87 0. 31 4703 Almond Ave MC 68.3 0.24 0.09 7483 Dixie Highway MC 182.0 0.64 0.23 415 Cart Walnut MC 182.0 0.64 0.23 410 South 5th Street SC 65.0 0.23 0.08 209 E. Main Street MC 78.0 0.27 0.10 4148 Taylor Blvd. MC 72.8 0.25 0.09 3822 Cave Run Road MC 291.2 1.02 0. 36 3232 Bardstown Road MC 218.4 0.76 0.27 337 Byone Street MC 313.4 1.10 0.39 1001 Breckinridge Lane MC 308.5 1.08 0.39 5015 Shelbyt-ille Road MC 156.0 0.55 0.20 4208 Bardstown Road MC 468.0 1.64 0.59 2225 Taylorsville Road MC 163.8 0.57 0.20 217 E. Chestnut MC 26.0 0.10 0.03 4025 Poplar Level Road MC 191.1 0.67 0.24 4917 Dixie Highway MC 4.5 0.02 0.01 810 Barrett Avenue MC 436.8 1.53 0.55 East Brown Lane P 52.0 0.21 0.0 5011 Poplar Level Road MC 72.8 0.25 0.09 600 S. Fourth Street MC 147.9 0.52 0.18 35 ------- 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 TABLE III-ll (cont'd) Charge Emissions (tons/year) Location Type (tons/year) Particulates S0„ 622 S. Tenth Street MC 641 Baxter Avenue P 323 E. Chestnut P 150 S. Fifth Street MC 1830 S. Third Street MC 315 E. Broadway P 1860 Arlington Avenue SC 4008 Crittenden Drive MC 6626 Southside Drive MC 1373 Belmar Drive MC 1313 St. Anthony's Place MC 1114 S. Fourth Street MC 501 S. Fourth Street MC 2900 Magazine MC 2301 S. Third Street P 3428 S. Preston MC 3414 Cave Run Road MC 8611 Terry Lane MC 720 Locust Lane MC 2368 Frankfort MC 1300 Lydon Lane MC 4454 Shively Center MC 3426 Preston Highway MC 5338 S. Third Street MC 81615 Preston Highway MC 1250 Bardstown MC 5701 S. Preston MC 5607 Preston Highway MC 4900 Shelbyville Road MC 109.2 0. 38 0.14 45.5 0.18 0.0 4.1 0.02 0.0 19.5 0.07 0.02 54.6 0.19 0.07 1.8 0.01 0.0 7.8 0.06 0.01 608.4 2.13 0.76 13.0 0.05 0.02 31.2 0.11 0.04 365.0 1.28 0.46 364.0 1.27 0.46 500.0 1.75 0.63 26.0 0.20 0.03 0.1 0.0 0.0 31.2 0.11 0.04 156.0 0.55 0.20 78.0 0.27 0.10 78.0 0.27 0.10 78.0 0.27 0.10 78.0 0.27 0.10 78.0 0.27 0.10 124.8 0.44 0.16 93.6 0.33 0.12 93.6 0.33 0.12 156.0 0.55 0.20 156.0 0.55 0.20 364.0 1.27 0.46 800.8 2.80 1.00 33.71 11.91 36 ------- 15. Open Burning Open burning is closely controlled in Jefferson County. Until mid- October 1973 a permit system allowed open burning of yard debris and leaves. After that date such burning was banned. The permits issued for the first 8-1/2 months of 1973 are not available. However, an estimate of 2,250 permits for this period has been made from records of an earlier year. In addition, there were 142 vio- lations or complaints of open burning. Further, there were 76 authorized bonfires in 1973. Fire training included the burning of 23 houses and 8 automobiles and pullman cars. to the JCAPCD estimated that 80,000 tons of refuse of all types were burned in the county in 1973, nearly all resulting from land clearing and construction activity. Based on the emission factor from AP-42 of 17 lbs of particulates per ton of wood or refuse burned, a total of 680 tons/year of emmisions is estimated. SO2 emissions from this source category are negligible. Open burning was prohibited in the Indiana counties except for agricul- tural burning and other classes of burning operating under a variance. These variances generally applied to backyard incineration where refuse collection was not available. For these two counties we have used the factor from APTD 1135 of 0.5 lbs/person-day and the emission factors from AP-42 for municipal refuse: Floyd County A comprehensive study of waste disposal in Jefferson County provided 80,000 x 17 2,000 = 680 tons/year Particulates: 0.5 x 57,200 x 365 x 16 s: 2,000 x 2,000 = 41.8 tons/year SO • 0-5 x 57,200 x 365 x 1 2* 2,000 x 2,000 = 2.6 tons/year 37 ------- Clark County 0.5 x 81,500 x 365 x 16 Particulates: 0 nnn 0 nnn = 59.5 tons/year 2 ,000 x 2,000 J _ . 0.5 x 81,500 x 365 x 1 _ . 2' ~ 2,000 x 2,000 = 3*7 tons/year Ari attempt was made to conduct a solid waste material balance. It was determined that 2.77 lbs/person-day of solid waste was disposed of by landfill. On-site incineration consumed another 0.10 lbs/person-day. This falls far short of the generally accepted 5.5 lbs/person-day solid waste generation value and if accepted would indicate that 2.63 lbs/person-day were disposed of by open burning. These results are similar to those of an in-depth study of solid waste for the Indianapolis area. It is believed that the 0.5 lbs/person-day open burning rate from APTD 1135 is more representative of the situation in Clark and Floyd Counties. Clark County authorities report that 180,000 tons of driftwood are burned each year. Such burning does not occur elsewhere in the AQMA. Emissions from this burning are: 180,000 x 17 . , „ . „ ^ qqq—= 1,530.0 tons/year of particulates Total particulate emissions in Clark County are then 1,589.5 tons/year. F. MISCELLANEOUS 16. Structural Fires The number of structural fires and dollar loss figures were provided by the offices of the State Fire Marshals. These data are listed in Table III-12. TABLE 111-12 STRUCTURAL FIRES AND LOSSES County No. Fites Fires/1,000 pop.^ Loss ($) Jefferson 1,101 1.5 4,405,651 Floyd 111 1.9 640,623 Clark 105 1.3 645,056 (1) As compared to the nation-wide average of four structural fires/ 1,000 population as given in APTD-1135. 38 ------- The loss in Jefferson County is the equivalent of 126 single family dwellings at $35,000 per dwelling, excluding the price of the lot but including furnishings. This is the estimated cost of a 1,500 square foot house and furnishings provided by the appraiser for First Federal Savings and Loan. Such a dwelling would include: 10,840 board feet of lumber = 791 ft3 5,380 ft2 of 3/8" plywood = 168 ft3 3 TOTAL 959 ft 3 At a mean density of 35 lbs/ft , this is equivalent to 16.8 tons/house plus four tons of furnishings. AP-42 provides a particulate emission factor of 17 lbs/ton of wood burned. SO^ emissions are negligible. Total particulate emissions from structural fires, calculated by this method are given below: Jefferson County 17 lbs/ton x 20.8 tons/house x 126 houses/year 2,000 lbs/ton = 22-3 tons/year The emission factor based on dollar loss is 10.12 lbs/$l,000 loss. Floyd County 10.12 x 641 „ „ . —27000—= 3-2 tons/year Clark County 10.12 x 645 „ „ . 2~~000 = tons/year 17. Frost Control Emissions from this source category were zero in 1973 in all counties. In both Floyd and Clark, the practice of burning tires for frost control was discontinued when equipment for control by irrigation was installed. 18. Slash Burning Slash burning is not practiced in this area. Disposal of waste resulting from land clearing operations is considered under the open burning source category. 39 ------- 19. Wild Forest Fires There were no wild forest fires in 1973 in either Floyd or Clark There were three forest fires in Jefferson County in 1973 burning a total of 20 acres. Using the factor of 9 tons/acre of burned material and an emission factor of 17 lbs/ton from AP42, total particulate emissions are calculated to be: 20. Agricultural Burning Agricultural burning is not practiced in this area. 21. Unpaved Roads The Floyd and Clark County Commissioners' offices provided data concerning the number of miles of unpaved roads in those counties. The Jefferson County Works Department provided a list of unpaved roads, from which unpaved road miles were determined from county road maps. Totals by county are listed below: In Clark County, ADT for representative rock roads was available. In Floyd County, an estimate of average ADT was made by the Commissioner's office. Little road information was available from Jefferson County. In Counties. 20 x 9 x 17 2000 = 1.5 tons/year Jefferson County - 33.4 Floyd County - 76 miles Clark County - 203 miles calculating emissions from unpaved roads, the following ADT have been used based on the information provided by county authorities. Jefferson County ADT Miles Fountain Avenue Hiawatha Washburn All Others 250 250 250 15C 0.46 0.33 0.31 32.30 Floyd County - all roads 45 Clark County - all roads 105 40 ------- An emission factor for dirt roads was determined by the methods outlined in the EPA Publication 450/3-74-037, "Development of Emission Factors for Fugitive Dust Sources." where EF is the emission factor (lbs/vehicle mile), s is the silt content of road surface material (%), and S is the vehicle average speed (mph). a more realistic cutoff value for truly suspended particulates would be nearer 30 um, 60% of the mass, the equation was modified by that factor. Furthermore, as suggested in the reference, emissions would not occur on the days with precipitation 0.01 inches. The resulting modified equation is: The formula suggested is: This equation estimates the factor for particles <_ 100 pm. Since EF = 0.60 36l~ d 0.81 s jo J where d is the number of days with precipitation _> 0.01 inches. Using the following parameters: s = 12%, crushed stone road S = .30 d = 120 EF = 0.60 365 - 120 365 0.81 x 12 x 30 30 = 3.9 lbs/vehicle-mile 41 ------- This emission factor equation is applicable to road speeds between 30 and 50 mph and is used without adjustment in the cases of Floyd and Clark Counties where the average speed on unpaved roads is estimated to be 30 mph. In Jefferson County, on the short municipal street blocks involved, speeds are estimated at 20 mph. According to AP-42 this results in a reduction in the emission factor to 1.8 lbs/vehicle-mile. Both Floyd and Clark Counties have dust repression programs in operation which consist of frequent and thorough treatment of the rock roads with oil. AP-42 suggests that such programs would be 50% effective in reducing dust. Particulate emissions resulting from this source category are calculareH he!"™-. Jefferson County 1.8 x 365 2,000 [(1.1 x 250) + (32.3 x 150)] = 1,681.9 tons/year Floyd County 0.5 x 3.9 x 76 x 45 x 365 2,000 = 1,217.1 tons/year Clark County 0.5 x 3.9 x 203 x 105 x 365 2,000 = 7,585.5 tons/year 42 ------- 22. Unpaved Airstrip Operations There are no unpaved airstrips in Jefferson or Floyd Counties. Hap's Airport in Clark County has a single asphalt runway with a gravel taxiway parallel to it. The scale of operations at the airport would call for general use of this taxiway when the airport is being fully used, esti- mated at 25% of the time. With 9,125 LTOs" per year, the taxiway would be employed 2,281 times. Assuming a 2,000-foot landing rollout or taxi into take-off position, an emission factor of 5.8 lbs/mile (the unpaved road emis- sion factor equation not modified for rainy days) results in 1.7 tons/year emissions: 2'281 -jSt x 2'000 Vio * TJso "l/£t * 5-8 * 2^0 tons/lb = 2-5 tons/"r 23. Tilling Activity Acreage farmed by crop for each county was estimated for 1973 by the county agents. These have been checked against data compiled in the 1969 Census of Agriculture and are in agreement as close as would be expected. Table 111-13 shows the county agent's estimates. TARIFF, TT.I-13 TILLED CROPLAND (Acres) Crop Jefferson Floyd Clark Tobacco 220 85 700 Corn A, 700 2,600 12,000 Soybeans 4,000 850 18,000 Small Grains 1,700 1,250 5,000 Truck Crops 250 375 1,400 TOTAL 10,870 5,160 37,100 43 ------- All crops, with the exception of tobacco, are tilled twice; there is no fall plowing and chemical weed control is generally practiced. Tobacco is tilled three times. EPA Publication 450/3-74-037, "Development of Emission Factors for Fugitive Dust Sources," provides a method for estimating emission fac- tors (lbs/acre) for tilling operations for particles _< 30 pm: EF.1'12 sfe> (PE/50)2 where s is the silt content of the surface soil (%), S is the implement speed (mph), and PE is the Thornthwaite precipitation-evaporation index. Parametric values used in the equations are: s = 48% (silty loam soil) S = 3.0 mph PE = 111 1.12 x 48 x 3.0 x (50)2 c nc , EF = = = 5.95 lbs/acre (111) x 5.5 Applying this emission factor and the data given earlier (acreage tilled and tilling schedule) permits calculation of total annual emissions. Jefferson County 5.95 x 10,650 x 2 . 5.95 x 220 x 3 _ „ . mSo + —Ooo 65 •3 Floyd County 5.95 X 5,075 x 2 5.95 x 85 X 3 _ tons/year 2,000 2,000 Clark County 5.95 x 36,400 x 2 5.95 x 700 x 3 = tons/year 2,000 2,000 44 ------- 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock There are seven quarrying operations in the three-county area: three in Kentucky and four in Indiana. All are included in the point source inventories. 25. Construction Activity EPA Publication 450/3-74-037, "Development of Emission Factors for Fugitive Dust Sources," recommends that an emission factor of 1.2 tons/ acre-month of active construction sites be used as an upper value, i.e., appropriate for application in arid areas with watering for dust control. In an attempt to define the value somewhat better, the wind erosion equa- tion was applied. E = AIKCL'V' s where E = suspended particulate fraction of wind erosion losses of tilled fields, tons/acre/year A = portion of total wind erosion losses that would be measured as suspended particulate, estimated to be 0.025 I = soil erosion, tons/acre/year K = surface roughness factor, dimensionless C = climatic factor, dimensionless L' = unsheltered field width factor, dimensionless V1 = vegetative cover factor, dimensionless The following values were taken from the above reference: I = 46 (silty loam soil) K = 0.5 the minimum value. The surface roughness factor was developed for erosion from farmland. A construction site would be rough compared to farmland. C = 4.5 L' = 0.5 V' = 1.0 no vegetative cover E =1.29 tons/acre-year s With the assumption of 20% effectiveness of control by watering and an exposure period of three months, EF = 1-29 x 0-80^x 3 x 2000 = 51g lbs/acre-year 45 ------- Another approach is to modify the arid area emission factor for Las Vegas (1.2 tons/acre-month) by the Louisville-Las Vegas ratio of climatic factors. On an annual basis: .3 W C = K - PE2 9.7- LV "LO = 325.5 8.9" 111 where W is the wind speed and PE is the Thornthwaite precipitation-evapora- tion index. _ 1.2 x 3 x 2,000 ,, / EF = 325 5 = 22 lbs/acre-year In calculating total construction activity emissions, we have selected an emission factor of 22 lbs/acre-year for residential construction and 220 lbs/acre-year for all other construction. Table 111-14 shows the method of calculating emissions by county using these emission factors. 26. Windblown Dust This source category applies to dust lost from aggregate storage piles. Most aggregate storage piles outside those maintained at active quarries are temporary in nature with no historical record of their existence or volume. Consequently, the base-line year inventory is difficult to recon- struct. One 1973 storage activity has been determined-a storage pile in the Jefferson County inventory which has a working capacity of 50,000 tons. In addition, there are a few sand and gravel storage operations along the river. These, however, are washed aggregate and are wet in storage and thus, their emissions would be minimized. AP-42 provides this method of estimating emissions from aggregate storage piles: E = -0,33 (PE/100) where E is the emission factor (lbs/ton) and PE is the Thornthwaite 46 ------- TABLE 111-14 CALCULATION OF CONSTRUCTION EMISSIONS KY IN Jefferson Floyd Clark Contract Construction Employment 49,176 82,557 16,727 583 826 ky(2) in(2) Jeff.(3) Floyd(3) Clark(3) Contract Value 10^ Dollars Residential Non-Residential Non-Building TOTAL 672 378 427 1,477 1,188 829 482 2,499 229 129 145 503 8 6 3 17 12 8 5 25 IT . (4) Factor Jefferson Floyd Clark Acres of Construction Residential Non-Residential Non-Building TOTAL 8A/10^$ 2.7A/10,$ 25A/10 $ 1,832 348 3,625 5,805 64 16 75 155 96 22 125 243 Factor (lbs/acre) Jefferson Floyd Clark Total Emissions (tons/year) Residential Non-Residential Non-Building TOTAL 22 2 20 220 20.2 38.3 398.8 457.3 0.7 1.8 8.3 10.8 1.1 2.4 13.8 17.3 (1) Source: County Business Patterns, 1973.- (2) Source: Statistical Abstracts, 1974. (3) Apportioned from state totals in accordance with contract construc- tion employment. (4) Source: Development of Emission Factors for Fugitive Dust Sources. 47 ------- precipitation-evaporation index. Total emissions are: Jefferson County: —0_i_33— x = tons/year (111/100) 2>uuu 27. Process Loss This source category includes those known process loss point sources which are not included in the point source inventory because the source strength was below that required for the definition of a point source. In the case of Jefferson County the information was provided in three categories: o Process emissions - particulates only o Process and boiler emissions - particulates and SC^ o Boiler emissions - particulates and SC^ A list of all such sources is provided in Table 111-15. All of the SO,, and part of the particulate emissions should properly be included in fuel usage categories. However, because of the known locations of the sources it is more accurate and convenient for the emissions from both process loss and fuel usage to be combined and considered in this section. Fuel burned by these sources is given in Table 111-16. 48 ------- TABLE 111-15 SMALL POINT SOURCES CONSIDERED AS AREA SOURCES JEFFERSON COUNTY Process Emissions (Tons/year) Source No. Address Part so2 1 215 Central 4 0 2 4000 Tower Road 1 0 3 6 0 4 6220 Strawberry Lane 2 0 5 905 Magnolia 4 0 6 1400 S. Hancock 3 0 7 1802 Portland 4 0 8 2336 S. Floyd 1 0 9 2417 Data 1 0 10 1 0 11 1540 S. 9th 6 0 12 1340 S. Shelby 8 0 13 1405 Durrett 2 0 14 3025 W. Madison 2 0 15 715 : E. Gray 1 0 16 600 : Bergman St. 1 0 17 900 : Baxter 7 0 18 800 1 N. 27th Street 4 0 19 1201 River Road 1 0 20 1313 S. 13th 9 0 21 3400 Fern Valley 2 0 22 4301 Produce 3 0 23 1247 S. 12th 3 0 24 3008 Magazine 2 0 25 16th & Bernheim 3 0 26 1951 Appleton 2 0 27 931 : S. 15th 2 0 49 ------- rce 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 SO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 4 1 1 6 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 Address Part 4 1000 Hamilton 1 4436 Poplar Level 6 260 S. Eiler 2 4005 Crittenden 3 3026 River Park 1 8318 Grade Lane 4 Process and Boiler 4451 Robards Lane 6 6200 Camp Ground 2 1001 Standiford 1 223 N. 15th 1 845 S. 9th 3 1860 Mellwood 4 1600 Crums Lane 9 1 3212 Woodland 3 4053 Westport Road 2 Meadowlawn 0 836 S. 12th 1 4730 Crittenden 4 Boilers 4662 Jennings Lane 1 340 Ohio Street 1 5200 Crittenden 2 831 S. 1st Street 1 1507 S. 2nd Street 0 4701 Allmond 5 6th and Broadway 3 120 W. Lee 2 50 ------- Source No. Address Part SC>2 56 1350 S. 15th 0 57 1800 Bluegrass 3 58 216 S. 5th 2 59 1867 Frankfort Ave. 2 60 1200 Story Ave. 1 61 2215 Portland Ave. 3 62 3701 Frankfort Ave. 5 63 643 S. 6th 2 64 4401 Bells Lane 4 65 426 W. Bloom 4 66 Zorn Avenue 2 3 12 2 0 0 3 0 0 6 8 3 51 ------- TABLE 111-16 1973 FUEL USE BY SMALL POINT SOURCES - JEFFERSON COUNTY Industrial Commercial/ Institutional Residual Oil (10^ gal) 0 0 Distillate Oil (10^ gal) 1,808 00 CO Natural Gas (10^ ft^) 2,716 1,760 Coal (tons) 489 0 In the cases of Floyd and Clark Counties the lists of small point sources and the resulting emissions were provided by the Division of Air Pollution Control, Indiana State Board of Health. These are given in Table 111-17 and 111-18. Emissions from this source category are summarized below: Particulates SO2 Jefferson County: 186.0 tons/year 61.0 tons/year Floyd County: 131.0 tons/year 0 tons/year Clark County: 61.5 tons/year 0 tons/year 52 ------- TABLE 111-11 FLOYD COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS Source No. Address Part. T/Yr. S02 T/Yr. Process Weight 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 E. 12th & McBeth New Albany 709 E. 4th New Albany 2050 Indiana Ave. New Albany E. 10th Street New Albany Floyd Knobs 617 Cherry St. New Albany 601 E. 4th New Albany 417 Pearl St. New Albany Silver St. New Albany Stone & East New Albany 1732 Lincoln New Albany 14th & Dewey New Albany 1502 Beeler St. New Albany 26 E. 6th St. New Albany 42 5 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 26 4 4 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Bu./Yr. 2,000 T/Yr. 7 T/Day Sawdust 41902 cu.yd./Yr. 40000 cu.yd./Yr. 40000 T/Yr. ------- TABLE 111-17 (cont'd) Source No. Address Part, T/Yr. so2 T/Yr, Process Weight 15 16 17 18 19 1319 Vincennes St, New Albany Charlestown Rd. New Albany Floyd Knobs, IN 1909 McDonald Ln. New Albany New Albany 2 1 1 26 0 0 0 0 42500 T/Yr. 360 T/Yr. 4000 T/Yr. Material Sawed 150 lb/wk. 180 T/Yr. ------- TABLE III-1C CLARK COUNTY 1973 SMALL POINT SOURCE PROCESS EMISSIONS Source No. Address Part. T/Yr. so2 T/Yr. Process Weight 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 R2-Highway 60 9 Borden 1019 E. Utica St. 4.5 Sellersburg 1007 W. Riverside 0 Clarksville 1301 Watt St. 14 Jeffersonville 1533 Plank Rd. 0 Jeffersonville 208 W. Cornell Ave. 6 Clarksville Pike St. - Rt. 2 1 Charlestown Utica St. 7 Sellersburg 211 Eastern Blvd. 0 Jeffersonville 521 N. Clark Blvd. 0 Clarksville 1602 E. Market 3 Jeffersonville 305 S. New Albany 2 Sellersburg St. John Rd. 0 Borden 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40000 T/Yr. 4510 T/Yr. 9600 T/Yr. 6700 T/Yr. 30000 T/Yr. 10000 T/Yr. 355 T/Mo. 80000 T/Yr. 400 lb./hr. ------- TABLE 111-18 (cont'd) Part. SO2 Process Source No. Address T/Yr . T/Yr . Weight 14 Broadway St. 11 0 50000 T/Yr. Clarksville 15 65 Harrison Ave. ^ 0 1250 T/Yr. Jeffersonville Ui ON ------- 28. Paved Roads Two particulate emission factors have been suggested both based on VMT. A Seattle study suggested an emission factor of 1.75 g/VMT for clean streets. This leads to total emissions for the AQMA as follows: o / c ~ 6 1.75 x 11,606,928 x 365 x x 1.102 x 10 = 5484.1 tons/year A Chicago study concluded that only 25% of motor vehicle impact can be attributed to exhaust emissions. For the AQMA, calculations are as follows: 0.34 LDV exhaust EF n ,,/««. / 0.54 LDV total EF X 2288'5 = 144°'9 tons/year 0.91 HDGV exhaust EF n r ^ , 1.32 HDGV total EF * 423'° * 291'6 """/year 1.30 HDDV exhaust EF „ , , . 2.13 HDDV total EF * 230'° " 140'4 Total exhaust emission 1872.9 tons/year 1872 9 Total Vehicle Impact ^ = 7491.6 tons/year Less Tire Wear & Exhaust , „ . . = 2941.5 tons/year Emissions y AQMA Paved Road Emissions 4550.1 tons/year We have selected the emissions calculated from the Seattle study since it was based on actual but somewhat questionable, measured concentrations. Allocation to counties is made proportional to county total vehicle particulate emissions as- described in Chapter IV, Section F. Jefferson County: 2936*0 X = 4769.8 tons/year Floyd County: 2936*0 X = 203.8 tons/year Clark County: x 5484#1 = 51(K6 tons/year County totals were determined as the sum of emissions from county census tracts. See Chapter IV, Section 28 for the method of allocating to tracts. (1) The two studies referenced here are unpublished papers provided to Engineering-Science, Inc., by EPA, Region IV. 57 ------- G. COUNTY SUMMARIES Tables III-19 and 111-20 are summaries of county-wide emissions. 58 ------- TABLE 111-19 AREA SOURCE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS SUMMARY (tons/year) Source Jefferson Floyd Clark 1. Residential Fuel 305.8 48.3 48.5 2. Industrial Fuel 0 22.2 61.2 3. C&I Fuel 409.4 15.1 45.8 4. Internal Fuel Combustion 0.6 0 0 5. Farm Tractors 13.1 3.5 8.5 6. Small Gasoline Engines 50.4 4.0 5.7 7. Construction Equipment 166.9 3.0 2.7 8. Railroads 50.1 13.3 16.7 9. Vessels 22.2 6.2 20.8 10. LDV 1986.6 86.1 212.8 11. HDGV 368.7 14.9 39.4 12. HDDV 198.3 8.1 21.2 13. Aircraft 29.1 0 0.1 14. On-Site Incineration 64.7 8.7 12.4 15. Open Burning 680.0 41.8 1589.5 16. Structural Fires 22.3 3.2 3.3 17. Frost Control 0 0 0 18. Slash Burning 0 0 0 19. Wild Forest Fires 1.5 0 0 20. Agricultural Burning 0 0 0 21. Unpaved Roads 1681.9 1217.1 7585.5 22. Unpaved Airstrips 0 0 2.5 23. Tilling Activity 65.3 31.0 222.8 24. Mineral Processing 0 0 0 25. Construction Activity 457.3 10.8 17.3 26. Windblown Dust 6.7 0 0 27. Process Loss 186.0 131.0 61.5 28. Paved Roads 4769.8 203.8 510.6 TOTAL 11536.7 59 1872.1 10488.8 ------- TABLE 111-20 AREA SOURCE SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS SUMMARY (tons/year) Source Jefferson Floyd Clark 1. Residential Fuel 497.4 89.5 82.6 2. Industrial Fuel 0 53.7 246.9 3. C&I Fuel 703.1 30.7 122.5 4. Internal Fuel Combustion 0 0 0 5. Farm Tractors 9.0 2.4 5.7 6. Small Gasoline Engines 24.5 2.0 2.8 7. Construction Equipment 199.2 3.6 3.2 8. Railroads 98.0 26.0 32.6 9. Vessels 6.6 1.8 6.1 10. LDV 478.3 20.7 51.2 11. HDGV 100.7 4.1 10.7 12. HDDV 260.6 10.6 27.9 13. Aircraft 46.3 0 0.1 14. On-Site Incineration 17.1 3.1 4.4 15. Open Burning 0 2.6 3.7 16. Structural Fires 0 0 0 17. Frost Control 0 0 0 18. Slash Burning 0 0 0 19. Wild Forest Fires 0 0 0 20. Agricultural Burning 0 0 0 21. Unpaved Roads 0 0 0 22. Unpaved Airstrips 0 0 0 23. Tilling Activity 0 0 0 24. Mineral Processing 0 0 0 25. Construction Activity 0 0 0 26. Windblown Dust 0 0 0 27. Process Loss 61.0 0 0 28. Paved Roads 0 0 0 TOTAL 2501.8 250.8 600.4 60 ------- CHAPTER IV 1973 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT The following paragraphs discuss the methodology for allocation and assignment of county-wide emissions to the appropriate census tract which is for this study the basis for input into the Air Quality Display Model. We have used the word allocate to indicate distribution of total county- wide quantities to subcounty areas and assignment to indicate placement of a discreet area source, e.g., aircraft operations, into a particular tract or tracts. Each of the 28 source categories is assigned to a tract or allocated to the appropriate tract by a selected allocation factor. The mechanics of the Drocess are facilitated by the work sheet form shown as Figure IV-1 reduced. Completed worksheets and AQDM load sheets have been forwarded to the Kentucky Division of Air Pollution. A. FUEL COMBUSTION 1. Residential Fuel This source category is allocated using the procedures for calculating theoretical fuel usage described in Volume 13 of the Guidelines. Engineering- Science has programmed the calculations for the computer. The Volume 13 pro- cedure considers total fuel usage to depend upon three parameters: heating degree days, dwelling size distribution, and fuel type distribution. The number of heating degree days is available from standard climatological summaries. The total is 4724 for the Louisville area. Dwelling size distribu- tion is given in the 1970 Census of Population and Housing. Fuel type distri- bution by number of dwelling units is available from International Data for Development, Inc. based on census data. Priatouts of the daca have been provided to the Division of Air Pollution. Using these data and the appropriate emission factors, emissions by census tract are calculated for each fuel type^ . The county particulate emission totals so calculated are summarized below: (1) A necessary assumption In applying the Volume 13 procedure is that dwelling size distribution is the same for all fuel types. 61 ------- ALLOCATION WORK SHEET ENGINEERING - SCIENCE, INC TRACT NO. COORDINATES AREA SOURCE HEIGHT TOTAL LsEA POP FACTOR ju'JPAVEO AWIC RESIDE..! FUEL c/: ! -..D rUEL run 1 :.c I r— £°a:'o:. OPEN bu=:. r 1 RES ROAD VEHICLES OrF Ilic^-Ar VEnlCLES 1 J UNPAVED TILLING CONSTRUCT ACTIVITY (T0«/DAt! FACTOR FACTOR FACTO" LOGV hk; hdov *w;oes 1 equip ! d 1 G 1 loco ' *AfiD 1 ROADS AIRSTRIPS COUNTT TOTAL j 1 ! i ! i 1 ! 1 : i 1 I 1 1 ' 1 1 ! i 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 ; : ! ! ! ¦ ! ! 5 1 III1! 1 i 1 [ Mil! 1 i 1 1 1 1 ! ! ; ! | | 1 1 I i 1 i | 1 1 l i i l ! 1 j | i ! | 1 1 | | I i | I i 1 i | | | | | ON hO T1 O C w ------- Jefferson County Tons/year Natural and LP Gas 171.10 Distillate and Residual Oil 37.42 Bituminous Coal 147.88 Wood 42.76 Total 399.16 Floyd County Tons/year Natural and LP Gas 40.23 Distillate and Residual Oil 13.53 Bituminous Coal 57.62 Wood 14.86 Total 126.24 Clark County Natural and LP Gas 61.38 Distillate and Residual Oil 23.28 Bituminous Coal 36.10 Wood 12.75 Total 133.51 As can be noted when comparing these emissions with those resulting from fuel usage determined by the fuel survey (Chapter III, Section 1), the Volume 13 method has over-predicted. A second feature of the computer pro- gram allows the output to be factored by fuel type to arrive at a selected value of total emissions. For instance, we have concluded that in Jefferson County a total of 148.6 tons per year of particulates are emitted from natural and LP gas usage. The theoretical total is 171.10 tons/year. The computer program factors the emissions in each tract for this fuel by j"^*^ ¦ = 0.869. The result is allocation to tracts by the Volume 13 dis- .L / X • 1U tribution, county totals equaling the fuel survey totals. An identical procedure is used for SO^ emissions, 2. Industrial Fuel In Jefferson County there were no emissions under this source category. 63 ------- In Floyd and Clark Counties allocations were made 50% proportional to process loss emissions (see Section 27 of this chapter) and 50% propor- tional to point source SO^ emissions from NEDS as listed below: Source Tract No. SO2 Emissions (Tons/Year) Colgate Palmolive 609.1/4237.1 504 8 Louisville Cement 609.0/4252.3 507 481 Army Ammunitions 617.0/4254.0 509 47 Philadelphia Quart z 608.9/4241.5 505.02 2 Hoosier Panel 603.5/4240.6 709 2 National Homes 603.5/4239.5 705 1 Public Service Co. 601.6/4235.5 706 94022 B. L. Curry 603.1/4238.9 705 30 General Plywood 603.5/4240.7 702 3 Chester B. Stern 603.2/4241.3 708/709 2 3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel Allocation factors for this source category were derived from the aerial photographs provided by the Kentucky Department of Transportation. Each commercial or institutional building was counted and its size in plan view was recorded. Allocation to tract was made in accordance with the sum of the areas of all buildings within the tract. 4. Internal Fuel Combustion The one source in this category, the Texas Gas Transmission Company, Jeffersontown pumping station was assigned to the tract appropriate to its location, Tract 111. B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES 5. Farm Tractors Emissions from this source category were allocated to tracts in accordance with an agricultural allocation factor derived for the most part 64 ------- from the aerial photographs in a manner similar to the commercial/institutional fuel allocation factor. In the far eastern area of Clark County, which was not included in the photographs, allocation factors were estimated subjectively from large scale Geological Survey topographic maps (7 1/2' series). 6. Small Gasoline Engines This source category was allocated in accordance with population factors based on 1970 census data. 7. Construction Equipment Emissions from this category were allocated proportional to the allocation of the construction activity source category discussed in Section 25 of this chapter. 8. Railroads Emissions from road-haul locomotive emissions were allocated to tracts in accordance with the number of train miles in each census tract. Rail switch-yard operations were assigned as listed below based on estimates of the size of the switch yard and the number of long-haul trains being assembled in each. Particulate SO„ Jefferson County Youngtown 2.96 3.91 Strawberry 4.83 6.36 Oak Street 2.22 2.93 H. K. Tower 0.98 1.30 Churchill Park 3.94 5.20 Union Station Yard 1.97 2.60 16.90 22.30 Floyd County Tract 701 2.30 3.00 Tract 702 2.20 2.90 4.50 5.90 Clark County Tract 502 0.47 0.62 Tract 503.01 0.47 0.62 Tract 505.02 4.19 5.54 Tract 506 0.47 0.62 5.60 7.40 DJ ------- 9. Vessels Allocation of this source category was in accordance with the length of the Ohio River bank in each census tract. However, in actual fact all of the River is included in Kentucky census tracts. For this source category only, the census tract boundaries were considered to run down the middle of the River. C. ROAD VEHICLES Emissions from this source category were first allocated to three subareas within the three-county study area in accordance with the SAPOLLUT readout. This VMT distribution and emissions are shown in Tables IV-1 through IV-3. The three subareas are shown in Figure IV-2. TABLE IV-1 1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 106 VMT EMISSIONS (tons/year) CLASS LDVMT HDGVMT HDDVMT TOTAL PART so2 Freeway 8.35 0.97 0.32 9.64 7.13 2.57 Arterial 33.77 1.93 0.65 36.35 24.41 7.60 Local Service 4.72 0.29 0.10 5.11 3.46 1.09 Total 46.84 3.19 1.07 51.10 35.00 11.27 TABLE IV-2 1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSIONS: CENTRAL CITY CLASS 106 VMT LDVMT HDGVMT HDDVMT TOTAL EMISSIONS (tons/year) PART SO, Freeway 213. .17 24. .71 8, .28 246. .16 182. ,12 65.85 Arterial 455. .83 26. .09 8, .74 490, .66 329. ,52 102.56 Local Service 226, .94 13. ,98 4. .69 245, .61 166. ,29 52.50 Total 895. .95 64, .78 21, .71 982, .43 677. ,93 220.91 66 ------- TABLE IV-3 1973 ANNUAL VMT AND EMISSION SUBURBS 106 VMT EMISSIONS (tons/year) CLASS LDVMT HDGVMT HDDVMT TOTAL PART S02 Freeway 917.33 106.31 35.63 1059.27 783.68 283.36 Arterial 1244.06 71.21 23.86 1339.13 899.35 279.92 Local Service 738.71 45.51 15.25 799.47 541.25 170.83 Total 2900.10 223.03 74.74 3197.87 2224.28 734.11 All historical ADT data and maps of the AQMA showing traffic count stations were obtained from KIPDA. Fiscal year 1971 data were selected for allocation purposes since that year appeared to have a more nearly complete set of traffic counts than more recent years. ADT values were plotted on the maps and link specific emissions calculated as the product of ADT, link length, and emission factors as given in Chapter III, Section C. Each of the three subareas, i.e., CBD, central city, and suburbs were delineated on the maps, and the link specific emissions previously determined by location were assigned to the appropriate area and tract within the area. Each subarea was treated separately with residual emissions, not accounted for by link specific assignment, allocated to tracts within the area in propor- tion to tract population. In the case of the CBD subarea, the link specific assignment by location accounted for 100.8% of the CBD total emissions. Obviously, some difference in freeway and/or arterial VMT as determined from the ADT data and by inter- polation of the CBD SAPOLLUT VMT output was responsible for the anomaly. It was assumed that the SAPOLLUT data was more accurate. The VMT for freeways determined from the ADT data were separated from the total VMT determined by location and reduced to agree with the SAPOLLUT freeway VMT. The resulting emissions were assigned to tracts in accordance with freeway locations. The remaining VMT determined from ADT data, assumed to be arterial VMT, were reduced to agree with SAPOLLUT arterial VMT and assigned to tracts in ac- cordance with location. The SAPOLLUT local service VMT were allocated to tracts in accordance with population. 67 ------- ------- In the cases of the central city and suburbs 52.7% and 56.9% of emissions re- spectively were assigned to tracts by link specific emissions determined by ADT. The residual emissions, not so assigned, were allocated to tracts in accordance with population. D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 13. Aircraft There were three airports that had significant emissions. These were assigned as follows: Standiford Airport Tract 91 Bowman Field Tract 87 HAP's Airport Tract 505.02 E. SOLID WASTE 14. On-Site Incineration Emissions from the 58 incinerators in Jefferson County for which operating data and locations were known were assigned to the appropriate tract. Emissions from the unknown incinerators (a total of 31.0 tons/year) were allocated in accordance with the commercial/institutional fuel usage factor. In Clark County the locations of the 22 incinerators were known, but individual operating conditions were not known. Average emissions per incinerator (0.56 tons/year for particulates and 0.20 tons/year for SO2) were assigned to the appropriate tract in accordance with incinerator locations. In Floyd County only total emissions from this source category were known. These were allocated in accordance with the commercial/institutional fuel usage factor. 15. Open Burning Since the major source of open burning emissions in Jefferson County are associated with land clearing and construction operations, allocation of this source category in Jefferson County was made in accordance with the development factors given in Table IV-4, Section 25 of this chapter. 69 ------- Particulate emissions from the burning of driftwood in Clark County were allocated to Tract 510, the location of such burning. Emissions from other sources in Clark County and all open burning emissions in Floyd County were allocated by 20% of the population factor to those tracts in the townships of New Albany, Clarksville and Jeffersonville. The remaining emissions were allocated to the more rural tracts by area factors. F. MISCELLANEOUS 16. Structural Fires This source category was allocated in accordance with the population factors based on 1970 census data. 17. Frost.Control There were no emissions in this source category in 1973. 18. Slash Burning There were no emissions in this source category. 19. Wild Forest Fires Emissions from this source category were assigned to Tract 120, the location of Jefferson County Memorial Forest. 20. Agricultural Burning There were no emissions in this source category. 21. Unpaved Roads In both Jefferson and Clark Counties the names and locations of unpaved roads were known. Emissions were assigned to tracts in accordance with an unpaved road allocation factor proportional to the number of miles of listed unpaved roads in each tract. In Floyd County only the total miles of unpaved roads was available. The allocation factor was determined from the number of miles of unpaved roads in each tract taken from county road maps provided by the Commissioner's Office. 22. Unpaved Airstrip Operations Emissions from this source category were assigned to Tract 505.02, the location of Hap's Airport. 70 ------- 23. Tilling Activity Emissions from this source category were allocated in accordance with the agricultural allocation factor described in Section 5 of this chapter. 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock There were no area sources in this category. 25. Construction Activity In Jefferson County allocation of emissions from this source category was based on information concerning construction activity location in 1973 from three sources: o Subdivisions and industrial or commercial development from the Louisville and Jefferson County Planning Commission o Downtown construction from the Urban Renewal Redevelopment Division o Highway construction from the Kentucky Department of Transportation. The area of each subdivision and industrial or commercial development was calculated from the commissioner's plat maps. In addition there was one regional shopping center of 54 acres under construction in 1973. Table IV-4. summarizes the data obtained. TABLE IV-4 SUMMARY OF JEFFERSON COUNTY RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL, AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT - 1973 TRACT NO. TYPE AREA (Acres) FACTOR(%) 71 Commercial 0.5 0.02 75.01 Subdivision 64.9 2.08 89 Subdivision 4.4 0.14 91 Subdivision 23.1 0.74 95 Subdivision 55.7 1.78 100.03 Subdivision 7.3 0.23 101.02 Subdivision 25.8 0.83 102 Industrial 32.5 1.04 103.01 Subdivision 291.9 9.34 71 ------- 104 Commercial 29.1 0.93 107 Commercial 50.8 107 Subdivision 425.2 15.23 109.01 Shopping Center 54.0 1.73 110.01 Subdivision 19.9 0.64 111 Commercial 40.3 111 Industrial 458.1 32.31 111 Subdivision 511.5 114.02 Subdivision 23.3 0.74 115.01 Subdivision 230.9 7.39 115.02 Subdivision 48.3 1.55 116 ¦ Industrial 122.6 8.52 116 Subdivision 143.7 117.01 Subdivision 119.7 3.83 117.02 Subdivision 86.3 2.76 119.02 Subdivision 49.5 1.58 120 Subdivision 11.6 0.37 121.01 Subdivision 14.9 0.48 121.02 Subdivision 65.9 2.11 122 Subdivision 41.2 1.32 123 Subdivision 50.9 1.63 124.01 Subdivision 6.6 0.21 126.02 Subdivision 8.9 0.28 127 Subdivision 6.1 0.20 Total 3125.4 100.01 The location, but not the area or dollar value of urban renewal and highway construction, was available. Allocation of emissions was made as follows: o 50% of total emissions to the tracts listed in Table IV-4 in accordance with the area factor o 25% of total emissions equally distributed among renewal projects o 25% of total emissions equally distributed among highway projects. 72 ------- In Floyd and Clark Counties such detailed information vas unavailable. Subjective estimates of construction activity location were made reflecting the general pace of development on the fringes of the towns with less intensive development in the more rural areas. Emissions from the sources were allocated as follows: FLOYD COUNTY CLARK COUNTY TRACT NO. EMISSIONS (%) TRACT NO. EMISSIONS (%) 701 0 501 0 702 0 C\J 0 ITS 0 703 15 503.01 10 70U 0 503.02 0 705 5 50U 10 706 15 505.01 15 707 5 505.02 15 708 15 506 20 709 15 507 10 710.01 10 W1 O CO 5 710.02 5 509 10 711 5 510 5 712 10 26. Windblown Dust The one source in this category was located in tract 93. 27. Process Loss Emissions from each of the sources listed in this source category were assigned to the appropriate tract by street address of the source. 28. Paved Roads Emissions from the source category were allocated proportionally to the allocation of total particulates from the three road vehicle cate- gories discussed in Section C of this chapter. This method of allocation is superior to a method based only on VMT, the predictor for total emissions, because it gives added emphasis to heavy duty vehicles with their greater 73 ------- number of tires and potential for reentraining road dust. As a mater of fact the method very closely (about 10% error and not within the significant digits recorded for tract emissions) approximates a method based on tire miles traveled. 74 ------- CHAPTER V REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Because population arid employment growth and the location of the industry, housing and commercial/institutional establishments required to support the growth play such an important part in projecting our pollu- tion emissions to be considered in Chapters VI and VII, the general regional growth characteristics are examined separately in this chapter. In general, it will be required in Chapters VI and VII that each of the 28 source category emissions be projected to the planning years 1975, 1980, and 1985 and the emissions located in the appropriate census tracts as was done earlier for the base-line year. For each source category the projections can be done in two ways: o The two-step approach in which county-wide emissions are projected and then allocated to tracts in accordance with some logical allocation factor, or, o Since we already have base-line years emissions by tract, project the disaggregated totals, directly. In actual fact, a combination of these methods will be used. A. POPULATION PROJECTIONS Two basic sources of population projections for the AQMA were available: o The 1972 OBERS AQMA projections prepared for EPA by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These projections were used in t-he 201 study and disaggregated by counties. o The 1972 Series E OBERS projections which update the earlier version and are currently being used by the local planning agencies. The AQMA projections have not been disaggregated by counties in the Series E projections. Additionally, 1973 county population estimates were provided by KIPDA. .(These estimates were first introduced in Chapter II.) These estimates were 75 ------- used for the base-line year. To arrive at planning year population total AQMA base-line year KIPDA estimates were projected in accordance with the Series E OBERS projection factors. AQMA totals were then -disaggregated by counties in accordance with the 201 disaggregation factors. The resulting population estimates and growth factors are shown in Table V-l. These county total populations must then be allocated to census tracts. The 201 study disaggregated total projected county population by drainage sub-basins for all areas except the Louisville urban area, in general, that area outside the Watterson Expressway. These projections were allocated from sub-basin to census tract by area integration. The remaining population - that in the urban area not accounted for in the sub-basin projections - was allocated to census tracts in accordance with the distribution of 1970 population. These projections by census tracts were then adjusted by the appropriate factors to make each county total agree with the modified Series E OBERS projections. The resulting population projections by tract are given in Table V-2. B. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS The 1972 Series E. OBERS projections were the source for the employment earnings projections shown in Table V-3. It is noted that the projections are given in terms of earnings in 1967 dollars for the several labor classifications. These earnings figures are very difficult to reduce to number of jobs, which is the parameter one would think is most closely related to growth in area source emissions. Furthermore, the Series E OBERS projections are not disaggregated by counties. As mentioned earlier the 201 study was based on an earlier OBERS. Although total AQMA employment differs significantly between the two OBERS, projected growth in employment is insignificantly different: from 1980 to 1985 the two factors are 1.093 and 1.095. It would appear, then, that either may be used for projecting employment. The advantage in using the earlier one is that it has been reduced to number of jobs and disaggregated by counties in the 201 study. These projections, taken from the study are shown in Tables V-4 through V-6. 76 ------- TABLE V-l COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1973 1975 1980 1985 WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN (201) PROJECTIONS Jefferson County 713,300 753,587 812,351 880,769 Floyd County 56,800 59,565 63,772 68,659 Clark County 83,100 89,348 104,977 123,372 TOTAL 853,200 902,500 981,100 1,072,800 FACTOR 1.000 1.058 1.150 1.257 1972 SERIES E OBERS PROJECTIONS TOTAL FACTOR 859,085 1.000 889,003 1.035 963,800 1.122 1,051,100 1.224 KIPDA MODIFIED SERIES E OBERS PROJECTIONS POPULATION Jefferson County 717,600 Floyd County 57,200 Clark County 81,500 TOTAL 856,300 739,911 58,484 87,726 121 886', 795,440 62,444 102,792 960,676 860,156 67,052 120,485 1,047,693 FACTORS Jefferson County Floyd County Clark County AQMA 1.000 1.000' 1.000 1.000 1.031 1.022 1.076 1.035 1.108 1.092 1.261 1.122 1.199 1.172 1.487 1.224 77 ------- TABLE V-2 PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT CENSUS TRACT 1975 1980 1985 JEFFERSON COUNTY 1 1,150 1,184 1,223 2 2,957 3,045 3,143 3 2,129 2,193 2,262 4 5,682 5,852 6,039 5 2,170 2,235 2,306 6 3,553 3,660 3,776 7 4,216 4,343 4,482 8 2,900 2,986 2,082 9 3,599 3,707 3,825 10 4,798 4,942 5,100 11 5,455 5,620 5,799 12 3,045 3,137 3,238 13 1,325 1,365 1,407 14 6,409 6,602 6,812 15 5,961 5,326 5,497 16 5,171 5,326 5,497 17 4,172 4,298 4,435 18 3,421 3,523 3,636 19 2,746 2,827 2,918 20 3,291 3,390 3,499 21 4,842 4,987 5,148 22 2,780 2,863 2,955 23 5,312 5,472 5,647 24 2,695 2,775 2,864 25 1,822 1,877 1,936 26 2,283 2,351 2,426 27 4,462 4,597 4,743 28 2,912 2,999 3,095 29 287 296 305 30 1,889 1,945 2,007 31 373 386 398 32 730 751 776 33 1,759 1,812 1,869 34 1,485 1,529 1,578 35 3,236 3,332 3,439 36 7,157 7,373 7,608 37 3,052 3,143 3,244 38 4,042 4,162 4,295 39 5,498 5,663 5,844 40 2,287 2,355 2,430 41 3,226 3,324 3,430 42 2,043 2,104 2,172 43 8,528 8,783 9,063 78 ------- TABLE V-2 (CONT'D) PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT CENSUS TRACT 1975 1980 1985 JEFFERSON COUNTY 44 4,681 4,822 4,975 45 4,673 4,813 4,968 46 4,543 4,679 4,828 47 300 308 318 48 124 128 132 49 1,526 1,573 1,622 50 2,272 2,341 2,415 51 3,493 3,598 3,714 52 4,769 4,912 5,069 53 1,883 1,939 2,000 54 591 608 628 55 3,155 3,250 3,354 56 4,416 4,754 4,907 57 1,809 1,864 1,923 58 176 181 187 59 4,258 4,385 4,525 60 2,068 2,130 2,197 61 1,098 1,131 1,168 62 3,604 3,712 3,830 63 4,563 4,701 4,850 64 3,026 3,117 3,216 65 2,651 2,730 2,818 66 4,165 4,289 4,426 67 1,731 1,782 1,839 68 3,202 3,298 3,404 69 2,941 3,029 3,128 70 2,821 2,906 2,999 71 4,836 4,982 5,140 72 302 310 321 73 776 800 826 74 3,373 3,474 3,585 75.01 4,323 4,483 4,740 75.02 5,428 7,224 9,197 76 8,978 9,248 9,543 77 3,153 3,248 3,352 78 4,546 4,682 4,832 79 2,322 2,392 2,468 80 1,278 1,317 1,359 81 3,658 3,767 3,889 82 5,291 5,449 5,624 83 3,438 3,542 3,655 84 4,009 4,129 4,262 85 2,566 2,643 2,727 86 853 878 907 79 ------- TABLE V-2 (CONT'D) PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT CENSUS TRACT 1975 1980 1985 JEFFERSON COUNTY 87 4,012 4,132 4,264 88 3,824 3,938 4,063 89 4,711 4,853 5,008 90 8,302 8,554 8,824 91 10,573 10,957 11,523 92 4,385 4,516 4,660 93 5,937 6,116 6,310 94 4,081 4,204 4,337 95 1,086 1,118 1,155 96 5,526 5,692 5,873 97 3,087 3,178 3,281 98 4,150 4,274 4,411 99 3,601 3,709 3,827 100.01 4,490 4,549 4,667 100.02 6,279 7,468 8,809 100.03 9,989 10,997 12,132 101.01 4.021 4,142 4,279 101.02 3,191 3,286 3,392 102 1,138 1,403 1,702 103.01 8,341 1,151 14,972 103.02 4,218 6,492 8,940 104 8,591 10,095 11,793 105 4,874 5,020 5,181 106 5,040 5,194 5,359 107 8,820 10,318 12,052 108 4,034 4,156 4,288 109.01 6,310 6,499 6,706 109.02 6,248 6,435 6,642 110.01 14,629 15,066 15,548 110.02 4.050 4,183 4,329 111 18,859 20,618 22,638 112 4,417 4,549 4,695 113 12,760 13,653 14,803 114.01 6,879 7,614 8,499 114.02 10,628 11,719 13,073 115.01 15,908 17,326 19,100 115.02 5,746 6,963 8,344 116 4,375 5,161 6,069 117.01 8,221 9,749 11,504 117.02 9,824 11,688 13,822 117.03 3,757 4,068 4,465 118 7,862 8,466 9,169 119.01 6,551 8,098 9,839 119.02 - 8,517 9,298 10,287 119.03 9,735 10,496 11,487 80 ------- TABLE V-2 (CONT'D) PROJECTED POPULATION BY CENSUS TRACT CENSUS TRACT 1975 1980 1985 120 12,403 13,149 14,178 121.01 12,794 15,819 19,214 121.02 16,278 18,779 21,712 122 14,804 18,211 22,015 123 6,464 7,152 7,940 124.01 10,360 11,371 12,636 124.02 14,127 15,389 16,991 124.03 9,710 10,646 11,819 125 13,996 14,736 15,740 126.01 9,093 9,152 9,409 126.02 10,082 10,239 10,609 127 13,238 13,836 14,730 128 8,081 8,278 8,523 129 841 866 895 130 1,890 1,946 2,008 131 2,706 2,788 2,877 132 738 761 785 JEFFERSON TOTALS 739,911 .795,440 860,156 FLOYD COUNTY 701 1,024 1,090 1,166 702 2,854 3,035 3,247 703 7,824 8,323 8,906 704 3,792 4,034 4,317 705 3,503 3,727 3,988 706 3,528 3,753 4,014 707 4,194 4,462 4,774 708 6,853 7,291 7,801 709 6,646 7,070 7,564 710.01 4,634 4,931 5,276 710.02 5,937 6,437 7,007 711 5,183 5,622 6,141 712 2,512 2,669 2,851 FLOYD TOTALS 58,484 62,444 67,052 CLARK COUNTY 501 2,576 3,030 3,583 502 4,836 5,688 6,728 81 ------- TABLE V-2 (CONT'D) CENSUS TRACT 1975 1980 1985 CLARK COUNTY 503.01 8,257 9,711 11,485 503.02 7,589 8,926 10,556 504 14,694 17,282 20,457 505.01 3,472 4,083 4,829 505.02 5,746 6,579 7,994 506 7,464 8,779 10,382 507 10,451 12,289 14,529 508 8,924 10,343 11,791 509 9,763 11,444 13,427 510 3,954 4,458 4,724 CLARK COUNTY TOTALS 87,726 102,792 120,485 82 ------- TABLE V-3 AQMA PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT EARNINGS AND FACTORS (1,000* s of 1967 dollars) 1973(1) 1975(1) 1980 1985 Mining 4,298 4,699 5,700 6,200 Construction 199,088 219,320 269,900 324,800 Manufacturing 1,061,261 1,183,987 1,490,800 1,802,900 T.C.U. 231,025 249,246 294,800 350,000 Trade 482,485 527,575 640,300 761,500 F.I.R.E.(3) 159,381 180,815 234,400 295,200 Services 409,227 472,133 629,400 816,600 Government 334,179 369,356 457,300 572,800 Mining 1.000 1.093 1.326 1.443 Construction 1.000 1.102 1.356 1.631 Manufacturing 1.000 1.116 1.405 1.699 T.C.U.(2) 1.000 1.079 1.276 1.515 Trade 1.000 1.093 1.327 1.578 F.I.R.E.(3) 1.000 1.134 1.471 1.852 Services 1.000 1.154 1.538 1.995 Government 1.000 1.105 1.368 1.714 (1) Interpolated between 1971 and 1980. (2) T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities. (3) F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. 83 ------- TABLE V-4 JEFFERSON COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS 1973 (1) 1975 1980 1985 Mining 252 259 268 Construction 15,545 16 ,551 17,226 Manufacturing T.C.u/2) 95,780 99 ,489 105,257 20,863 21 ,007 21,686 Trade 64,282 67 ,063 72,424 F.I.R.E.(3) 16,186 16 ,761 18,106 Services 45,366 47 ,649 53,697 Government 37,929 39 ,721 44,735 Mining 1.00 1. 028 1.063 Construction 1.00 1. 065 1.108 Manufacturing 1.00 1. 039 1.099 T.C.U.(2) 1.00 1. 007 1.039 Trade 1.00 1. 043 1.127 F.I.R.E. 1.00 1. 036 1.119 Services 1.00 1. 050 1.184 Government 1.00 1. 047 1.179 269 18,589 112,432 22,603 78,585 19,709 60,806 49,680 1.067 1.196 1.174 1.083 1.223 1.218 1.340 1.310 (1) Interpolated between 1971 and 1980. (2) T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities. (3) F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. 84 ------- TABLE V-5 FLOYD COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS 1973 (1) 1975 1980 1985 Mining Construction Manufacturing T.C.U.(2> Trade F.I.R.E. Services Government (3) 68 454 4,930 697 3,204 641 1,556 2,014 67 465 5,210 674 3,215 638 1,572 2,029 71 501 5,546 720 3,593 714 1,833 2,365 71 535 5,771 743 3,861 767 2,056 2,601 Mining Construction Manufacturing T.C.U.'2> (3) Trade F.I.R.E. Services Government 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.985 1.024 1.057 0.967 1.003 0.995 1.010 1.007 1.044 1.104 1.125 1.033 1.121 1.114 1.178 1.174 1.044 1.178 1.171 1.066 1.205 1.197 1.321 1.291 (1) Interpolated between 1971 and 1980. (2) T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities. (3) F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. 85 ------- TABLE V-6 CLARK COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT AND FACTORS 1973 (1) 1975 1980 1985 Mining Construction Manufacturing T.C.U.(2) Trade F.I.R.E. Services Government (3) 98 798 10,592 1,306 4,882 572 2,018 3,007 106 893 11,638 1,386 5,359 623 2,229 3,313 119 1,013 13,047 1,559 6,308 734 2,738 4,067 130 1,185 14,796 1,762 7,420 864 3,361 4,896 Mining 1.00 Construction 1.00 Manufacturing 1.00 T.C.U. ^ 1.00 Trade 1.00 F.I.R.E. ^ 1.00 Services 1.00 Government 1.00 1.082 1.119 1.099 1.061 1.098 1.089 1.105 1.102 1.214 1.269 1.232 1.194 1.292 1.283 1.357 1.353 1.327 1.485 1.397 1.349 1.520 1.510 1.666 1.628 (1) Interpolated between 1971 and 1980. (2) T.C.U. - Transportation, Communications, and Utilities. (3) F.I.R.E. - Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. 86 ------- C. LAND USE PLANNING A variety of land use planning information was obtained from the various planning and other agencies. Of primary importance were the following: o 1969 Louisville and Jefferson County Comprehensive Plan for 1990. o 1970 Floyd County Land Use and School and Park Plan for 1990. o Updated Proposed Clark County Generalized Land Use Plan for 1990. o Environmental Assessment of the Louisville and Jefferson County Riverport Industrial Development. o Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Clark Maritime Center. o Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Clark County Airport. 87 ------- CHAPTER VI COUNTY-WIDE AREA SOURCE EMISSION PROJECTIONS The following paragraphs discuss the methodology for projecting the 1973 county-wide emissions to the planning years 1975, 1980, and 1985 and give the results of the projection calculations. A. FUEL COMBUSTION 1. Residential Fuel The projections in this source category depend upon increasing population, as given in Table V-l, and future fuel type and dwelling size distribution. Traditionally, coal as a residential heating fuel has been decreasing with time. The National Petroleum Council estimates a further decrease of 54% from 1973 to 1985 on a national basis. There is little hope for increased availability of natural gas or LPG. Consequently, assumptions concerning projected fuel types distribution are listed below: ® Decrease coal consumption by 4.5%/year, 6 Natural and LP gas usage constant. ® 50% of coal conversions and new dwellings will be heated by distillate oil; 50% by electricity. ® Residual oil usage constant. • Use of wood as a residential fuel will increase with population. The reasonableness of these assumptions has been verified by the Director of the Kentucky Energy Office. No forecast change in dwelling size distribution is available; this parameter and the resulting heating efficiency were assumed to be constant. However, the trend seems to be toward more multi-family dwellings and increased heating efficienty. Errors in the emission predictions caused by ignoring this trend are conservative, i.e., predicted emissions would tend to be larger than actual emissions. 88 ------- Tables VI-1 and VI-2 summarize emissions from residential fuel usage by fuel type for each county. The values of emissions from burning LPG, natural gas, residual oil, coal and wood are derived directly from the above assumptions. The value for distillate oil emissions was calculated in the following manner using the Jefferson County 1985 SO^ projection as an example. With no change in fuel mix natural gas and coal emissions would increase with the population factor: Gas emissions: 8.6 x 1.199 = 10.3 tons/year Coal emissions: 289.9 x 1.199 = 347.6 tons/year The increment converted to oil is one-half the difference between these population predicted emissions and the actual predictions from Table Vl-2. Gas emissions: (10.3 - 8.6) x 1/2 = 0.9 tons/year Coal emissions: (347.6 - 133.4) x 1/2 = 107.1 tons/year These emissions are converted to fuel burned by the appropriate emission factors from Chapter III, Section 1. Gas: 0.9 x = 3,000 x 10^ ft^/year U • 0 Coal: 107.1 x = 2,818 tons/year / o These fuels burned are then converted to distillate oil on a Btu equivalent basis: „ . 3,000 x 106 x 1,050 _ -n_ ,n3 . 140,000 x 1,000 22,500 x 10 gal „ , 2,818 x 2,000 x 13,000 ,„3 C°al: 140,000x1,000 " 523 X 10 *al Emissions from this increment of distillate oil burned at 0.27% S, 23,023 x 142 x 0.27 ... , — f 000 = tons/year are added to the emissions from normal population growth projections 198.9 x 1.199 = 238.5 tons/year 89 ------- TABLE VI-1 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL FUEL USAGE (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Jefferson County LPG 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Natural Gas 142.9 142.9 142.9 142.9 Distillate Oil 51.9 70.8 117.8 173.4 Bituminous Coal 62.5 56.9 42.8 28.8 Wood 42.8 44.1 47.4 51.3 Total 305.8 320.4 356.6 402.1 Floyd County LPG 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Natural Gas 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 Distillate Oil 19.1 20.6 24.7 28.9 Residual Oil 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Bituminous Coal 3.9 3.5 2.7 1.8 Wood 14.9 15.2 16.3 17.5 Total 48.3 49.7 54.1 58.6 Clark County LPG 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Natural Gas 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 Distillate Oil • 20.5 25.9 37.2 50.7 Residual Oil 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Bituminous Coal 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 Wood 12.8 13.8 16.1 18.9 Total 48.5 54.8 68.1 84.2 90 ------- TABLE VI-2 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO,, EMISSIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL FUEL USAGE (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Jefferson County LPG 0 Natural Gas 8.6 Distillate Oil 198.9 Bituminous Coal 289.9 Total 497.4 Floyd County LPG 0 Natural Gas 0.4 Distillate Oil 70.4 Residual Oil 0.8 Bituminous Coal 17.9 Total 89.5 Clark County LPG 0 Natural Gas 0.5 Distillate Oil 66.9 Residual Oil 9.5 Bituminous Coal 5.7 Total 82.6 0 0 0 8.6 8.6 8.6 254.6 465.8 679.9 263.8 198.6 133.4 527.0 673.0 821.9 0 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.4 72.1 76.9 82.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 12.3 8.2 89.6 90.4 91.9 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 72.0 84.4 98.9 9.5 9.5 9.5 5.2 3.9 2.6 87.2 98.3 111.5 91 ------- to give total distillate oil emissions of 679.9 tons/year 2. Industrial Fuel Jefferson County had no emissions in this source category. However, it will be recalled that emissions from fuel burning from small point sources were included in the process loss source category. It was assumed that there would be no growth in natural or LP gas usage and that all growth, in accordance with projected manufacturing employment (Tables V-5 and V-6) would be in those industries using distillate and residual oil. The resulting fuel distribution is given in Table VI-3 and the resulting emission projections are given in Table VI-4. No change in sulfur in fuel is assumed. 3. Commercial and Institutional Fuel County-wide emissions from this source category are projected in accordance with projected employment in trade, finance, insurance, and real estate, services and government given in Tables V-4 through V-6. The following assumptions were made concerning future fuel distribution: o No growth in coal usage; o No growth in natural or LP gas usage; and o The ratio between distillate and residual oil will remain constant. The resulting projected fuel usage distribution is shown in Table VI-5 and the emissions in Table VI-6. 4. Internal Fuel Combustion The one source in this category for 1973 was the Jeffersontown pump- ing station operated by the Texas Gas Transmission Company. The company plans no additional pumping stations. In 1973 the Jeffersontown station was operating at 100% of capacity. The following information, provided by the Company, permits calculation of projected emissions for this source category: 92 ------- TABLE VI-3 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED INDUSTRIAL AREA SOURCE FUEL DISTRIBUTION 3 (10 gal distillate oil equivalent) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Floyd County LPG 39 39 39 39 Natural Gas 2377 2377 2377 2377 Distillate Oil 2609 2891 3228 3456 Residual Oil 81 90 100 107 Total 5106 5397 5744 5979 Factor 1.000 1.057 1.125 1.171 Lark County LPG 275 275 275 275 Natural Gas 23235 23235 23235 23235 Distillate Oil 1410 2257 3395 4806 Residual Oil 3230 5170 7776 11010 Total 28150 30937 34681 39326 Factor 1.000 1.099 1.232 1.397 93 ------- TABLE VI-4 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM INDUSTRIAL FUEL USAGE (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 0 0 0 0 Floyd County 22.2 24.3 27.0 28.8 Clark County 61.2 88.3 124.8 170.1 so2 Jefferson County 0 0 0 0 Floyd County 53.7 59.4 66.3 71.0 Clark County 246.9 394.7 593.2 839.5 94 ------- TABLE VI-5 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL FUEL DISTRIBUTION 3 (10 gal distillate oil equivalent) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Jefferson County LPG 332 332 332 332 Natural Gas 141412 141412 141412 141412 Distillate Oil 22977 30414 48431 68430 Residual Oil 425 563 896 1266 Bituminous Coal 3196 3196 3196 3196 Total 168342 175917 194267 214636 Factor 1.000 1.045 1.154 1.275 Loyd County LPG 98 98 98 98 Natural Gas 5985 5985 5985 5985 Distillate Oil 1364 1400 2447 3221 Residual Oil 21 22 38 50 Bituminous Coal 17 17 17 17 Total 7485 7522 8585 9371 Factor 1.000 1.005 1.147 1.252 Lark County LPG 148 148 148 148 Natural Gas 9578 9578 9578 9578 Distillate Oil 3777 4938 7518 10503 Residual Oil 922 1206 1835 2564 Bituminous Coal 28 28 28 28 Total 14453 15898 19107 22821 Factor 1.000 1.100 1.322 1.579 95 ------- TABLE VI-6 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FUEL (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 409.4 466.7 605.4 759.3 Floyd County 15.1 15.4 23.4 29.3 Clark County 45.8 57.5 83.6 113.8 SO^ Jefferson County 703.1 844.2 1185.9 1565.2 Floyd County 30.7 . 31.4 52.1 67.3 Clark County 122.5 158.3 237.8 329.8 96 ------- EMISSIONS (tons/year) Capacity (%) Particulate SO 2 1973 100 81 70 100 0.6 0 1975 0.5 0 1980 0.4 0 1985 0.6 0 B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES 5. Farm Tractors According to the 1960 Census of Agriculture farm land decreased at an annual rate of 1.5%/year in Jefferson County and 3.3%/year in Floyd County over the five-year period from 1964 to 1969. In Clark County a 0.6%/year increase was observed. Because of the large growth in industry and commerce expected in Clark County it is doubtful if the trend will continue and the farm land will probably decrease over time at near the rate for the other two counties in the metropolitan area. A value of 2%/year would appear representative of the whole area. This cannot be equated to the same reduction in emissions from farm tractors, because the tendency is more tractors per farm and for some farm tractor use not to be associated with real farming operations. Consequently, emissions from. this, source category are reduced at a compound decay rate of 1.00%/year. The resulting projected emissions are shown in Table VI-7. 6. Small Gasoline Engines Emissions from small gasoline engines are projected to increase in accordance with the projected population factors given In Table V-l and are shown in Table VI-8. 7. Construction Equipment County-wide emissions from this source category are projected to increase in accordance with the growth in construction employment given in Tables V-4 through V-6. Projected emissions are shown in Table VI-9. 97 ------- TABLE VI-7 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM FARM TRACTORS (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 13.1 12.8 12.2 11.6 Floyd County 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 Clark County 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.5 SO 2 Jefferson County 9.0 8.8 8.4 8.0 Floyd County 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 Clark County 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.1 98 ------- TABLE VI-8 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM SMALL GASOLINE ENGINES (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 50.A 52.0 55.8 60.4 Floyd County 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.7 Clark County 5.7 6.1 7.2 8.4 so2 Jefferson County 24.5 25.3 27.1 29.4 Floyd County 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 Clark County 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.1 99 ------- TABLE VI-9 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 166.9 177.7 184.9 199.6 Floyd County 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 Clark County 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.0 SO^ Jefferson County 199.2 212.1 220.7 238.2 Floyd County 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 Clark County 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.8 100 ------- 8. Railroads Data on growth in intercity railroad freight traffic were provided by the Economics and Finance Department of the Association of American Railroads. The annual average growth rate for such traffic, for the period 1954 to 1974, has been 2.2% for railroad ton miles. This is to be compared with a 3.5% growth for all modes of intercity freight traffic. During this period the railroad share of traffic decreased from 49.6% in 1954 to 38.6% in 1974. This decreasing trend in share of the market is expected to stop with the accelerated use of coal as fuel and the use of rail for its transport. Consequently, in projecting emissions for both road-haul and yard operations, we have used a compound growth factor of 1.035 per year.^ Furthermore, the proposed industrial and port facilities would support this increased growth. This, of course, ignores the substantially larger growth in fuel usage reported in Chapter II for 1972 to 1973. However, this was a year of unusual expansion in the economy; it is believed that the historical trend would be a better basis for projecting emissions over the decade. Further- more, projected employment in transportation, communications) and utilities supports the smaller value. Base line year emissions of SC^ were based on the national average sulfur in fuel content for all railroads except the K&IT RR. A value of 0.231 percent was used for the latter. These values are also used for projected emissions. The K&IT RR has a long-term fuel contract specifying low sulfur fuel. Factors and emissions resulting are shown in Table VI-10. 9. Vessels Historical growth factors for tons transported on the Ohio River in Waterborne Commerce of the US, Calendar Year 1973, Part 2, Waterways and Harbor, Gulf Coast, Mississippi River System and Antilles are shown below: (1) A compound growth rate of 1.035%/year for the 1973 to 1985 period is equivalent to 1.043%/year linear growth rate. 101 ------- TABLE VI-10 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED RAILROAD EMISSIONS (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 FACTOR 1.00 1.07 1.27 1.51 PARTICULATE ROAD-HAUL LOCOMOTIVES Jefferson County 33.2 Floyd County 8.8 Clark County 11.1 RAIL YARD OPERATIONS Jefferson County 16.9 Floyd County 4.5 Clark County 5.6 35.5 9.4 11.9 18.1 4.8 6.0 42.2 11.2 14.1 21.5 5.7 7.1 50.1 13.3 16.8 25.5 6.8 8.5 SO, ROAD-HAUL LOCOMOTIVES Jefferson County 75.7 81.0 Floyd County 20.1 21.5 Clark County 25.2 27.0 RAIL YARD OPERATIONS Jefferson County 22.3 23.9 Floyd County 5.9 6.3 Clark County 7.4 7.9 96.1 25.5 32.0 28.3 7.5 9.4 114.3 30.4 38.1 33.7 8.9 11.2 102 ------- 64-65 1.071 69-70 1.026 65-66 1.062 70-71 1.029 66-67 1.035 71-72 1.041 67-68 1.059 72-73 0.978 68-69 1.050 For the nine-year period the compound growth rate is 3.87%/year, a value not greatly different from the 3.5%/year value for growth for all modes of intercity freight traffic. In view of the discussion above concerning the strengthening, or at least the no longer weakening position, of rail transport, it is suggested that a 3.5%/year compound growth rate is appropriate for river traffic and consequently for diesel vessel emissions. No change in emission factors or sulfur in fuel is anticipated. Growth factors for gasoline-powered recreation vessels are based on projected population for the entire AQMA. There were no base-line year particulate emissions from gasoline-powered vessels. Factors and emissions resulting are shown in Table VI-11. C. ROAD VEHICLES Projections of emissions from road vehicles is dependent upon: ° changes in traffic volume; ° changes in vehicle type mix; and 0 changes in emission factors (emissions/vehicle-mile). The 1995 VMT are available from the 1970 projections from SAPOLLUT by functional class of road and area. These data are given in Table VI-12, with the linearly interpolated values for 1973, 1975, 1980, and 1985. There is little information available on the historical or projected change in vehicle mix. The 1972 Census of Transportation shows for all vehicles 98.9% gasoline in 1962, 92.5% gasoline in 1967, and 97.2% gasoline in 1972. The mix of HDGV/HDDV is not given. For 103 ------- TABLE VI-11 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM VESSELS (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 DIESEL VESSELS FACTOR 1.00 1.07 1.27 1.51 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 22.2 23.8 28.2 33.5 Floyd County 6.2 6.6 7.9 9.4 Clark County 20.8 22.3 26.4 31.4 so2 Jefferson County 5.7 6.1 7.2 8.6 Floyd County 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.4 Clark County 5.3 5.7 GASOLINE 6.7 VESSELS 8.0 FACTOR 1.00 1.06 1.15 1.26 so2 Jefferson County 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 Floyd County 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Clark County 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 104 ------- TABLE VI-12 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED ANNUAL TRAFFIC VOLUME (106 VMT) CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 1970 1973 1975 1980 1985 1995 Freeway 4.04 9.64 13.37 22.70 32.03 50.69 Arterial 36.01 36.35 36.57 37.14 37.70 38.83 Local Service 4.45 5.11 5.55 6.65 7.75 9.95 Total 44.50 51.10 55.49 66.49 77.48 99.47 CENTRAL CITY 1970 1973 1975 1980 1985 1995 Freeway 195.81 246.16 279.73 363.65 447.57 615.41 Arterial 496.06 490.67 487.08 478.10 469.12 451.16 Local Service 230.63 245.61 255.61 280.59 305.56 355.52 Total 922.50 982.44 1022;42 1122.34 1222.25 1422.09 SUBURBS 1970 1973 1975 1980 1985 1995 Freeway 859.13 1059.27 1192.70 1526.27 1859.83 2526.97 Arterial 1253.67 1339.13 1396.11 1538.55 1681.00 1965.88 Local Service 704.27 799.47 862.94 1021.61 1180.28 1497.62 Total 2817.07 3197.87 3451.75 4086.43 4721.11 5990.47 GRAND TOTAL 3784.07 4231.41 4529.66 5275.26 6020.84 7512.03 105 ------- projection purposes it is assumed that vehicle mix remains constant within each of the areas for each functional class of road. This procedure results in an increase in total HDVMT relative to total LDVMT within the AQMA. SC^ automotive emission factors do not change with time. Particulate emission factors for LDGV, however, decrease with time because of the expected increase in the use of catalytic converters in conjunction with unleaded gasoline, and the resulting reduced emissions of lead oxides. For LDGV the emission factor: EF = [EFCC x F] + [EFncc x (1-F)] + EFTW where FFcC is the exhaust emission factor for the 1975 model year and later cars = 0.05 g/mile. EF the exhaust emission factor for 1974 model year and earlier cars = 0.34 g/mile. F is the fraction of annual travel by the 1975 model year and later cards. EF„I7 is the tire wear emission 1W factor = 0.20 g/mile. F is calculated using Table 1-22 in Appendix D of AP-42. 1975: Model Year Age (years) F 1975 1 0.112 Total 0.112 EF = (0.05)(0.112) + (0.34) (1-0.112) + 0.20 = 0.51 g/mile 1980: Model Year Age (years) F 1980 1 0.112 1979 2 0.143 1978 3 0.130 1977 4 0.121 1976 5 0.108 1975 6 0.094 Total 0.708 EF = (0.05)(0.708) + (0.34)(1-0.708) + 0.20 = 0.33 g/mile 106 ------- 1985: Model Year Age (year) F 1985 1 0.112 1984 2 0.143 1983 3 0.130 1982 4 0.121 1981 5 0.108 1980 6 0.094 1979 7 0.079 1978 8 0.063 1977 9 0.047 1976 10 0.032 1975 11 0.019 Total 0.948 EF = (0.05)(0.948) + (0.34)(1-0.948) +0.20 = 0.27 g/mile With these particulate emission factors and the unchanging SO^ emission factors, projected emissions for the entire AQMA can be calculated using the growth in VMT given in Table VI-12. The results are shown in Tables VI-13 and VI-14. As for the base-line year, county-wide emission projections are deter- mined by reaggregating the census tract allocations made in Chapter VII,, Section C. Particulate: Jefferson County Floyd County Clark County Jefferson County Floyd County Clark County D. OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 13. Aircraft Projections of emissions for this source category are dependent upon three factors: 1973 1975 2553.6 109.1 273.4 2613.3 109.2 291.4 839.6 35.4 89.8 901.3 37.3 100.4 1980 1985 2234.2 88.1 254.1 2248.5 84.9 260.6 1058.4 41.8 120.4 1215.0 46.2 141.1 107 ------- TABLE VI-13 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM ROAD VEHICLES (Tons/Year) CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 1973 1975 1980 1985 Freeway 7.13 9.50 12.23 15.43 Arterial 24.41 23.44 16.96 14.91 Local Service 3.46 3.59 3.09 3.12 Total 35.00 36.53 32.28 33.46 CENTRAL CITY 1973 1975 1980 1985 Freeway 182.12 198.95 196.21 215.88 Arterial 329.52 312.16 218.35 185.46 Local Service 166.29 165.26 130.01 122.92 Total 677.93 676.37 544.57 524.26 SUBURBS 1973 1975 1980 1985 F reeway 783.68 848.27 823.49 897.03 Arterial 899.35 894.77 702.71 664.58 Local Service 541.25• 557.88 473.33 474.78 Total 2224.28 2300.92 1999.53 2036.39 GRAND TOTAL 2937.21 3013.82 2576.38 2594.11 108 ------- TABLE VI-14 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S0„ EMISSIONS FROM ROAD VEHICLES (Tons/year) CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 1973 1975 1980 1985 Freeway 2.57 3.58 6.07 8.57 Arterial 7.60 7.65 7.77 7.88 Local Service 1.10 1.19 1.42 1.66 Total 11.27 12.42 15.26 18.11 CENTRAL CITY 1973 1975 1980 1985 Freeway 65.85 74.83 97.28 119.72 Arterial 102.56 101.82 99.94 98.07 Local Service 52.50 54.62 59.96 65.29 Total 220.91 231.27 257.18 283.08 SUBURBS 1973 1975 1980 1985 Freeway 283.36 ' 319.04 408.27 497.50 Arterial 279.92 291.86 321.63 351.41 Local Service 170.83 184.40 218.30 252.21 Total 734.11 795.30 948.20 1101.12 GRAND TOTAL 966.29 1038.99 1220.64 1402.31 109 ------- o Increased operational activity at the airports, o Change in the mix of the various classes of aircraft, o More stringent control of aircraft emissions. There are no known plans for further control regulations on aircraft, consequently, the emission factors used in the base-line year emission inven- tory are used in the projection. Increased operations and changed mix information for Standiford Airport and Bowman Field, available from FAA publication, Terminal Area Forecasts 1976 - 1986, are summarized in Table VI-15. In projecting emissions from the projected aircraft activity the follow- ing assumptions were made: o No jumbo jet operations are expected, o No growth in long-range jets is expected, o 50% decrease in air carrier turbo-prop operations is expected by 1985, o The 2 engine, 3 engine mix of medium-range jets will remain consistent, o The air taxi mix is constant, o No growth in military aircraft emissions is expected, o The general aviation mix is constant, ° The growth for activity at Hap's Airport from 1973 to 1975 is the same as single engine piston general aviation growth at Bowman Field. By 1980 Hap's Airport will be replaced by a new Clark County Airport. Projected operations for 1980 and 1985, given in Table VI-15, are taken from the draft environmental impact statement prepared by the FAA for this facility. Using these assumptions projected emissions for the source category were calculated and are summarized in Tables VI-16 and VI-17. E. SOLID WASTE 14. On-Site Incineration Emissions from this source category are projected to increase in accor- dance with the employment projection developed for the commercial and institutional fuel usage source category given in Chapter VI, Section 3. In the case of Jefferson County the growth factor was applied only to the incinerators operating in 1975. 110 ------- TABLE VI-15 PROJECTED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS ^ 1973 19 75 1980 1985 STANDIFORD AIRPORT Air Carrier 59270 59090 68600 77400 Air Taxi 5209 5070 6600 8600 Other 52269 64090 90800 148000 Total 116748 128250 166000 234000 BOWMAN FIELD Air Carrier 84 0 0 0 Air Taxi 2603 2868 3800 4800 Other 294974 313658 399000 563600 Total 297661 316526 402800 568400 HAPS/CLARK COUNTY Total 18250 19406 26150 38045 Source: Terminal Area Forecasts 1976-1986, Department of Transportation; FAA. The 1975, 1980, and 1985 values are linearly interpolated from the 1976, 1981, and 1986 given values. Ill ------- TABLE VI-16 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES (lbs/year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 STANDIFORD AIRPORT Air Carrier Jumbo Jet 0 0 0 0 Long-Range Jet 2870 2870 2870 2870 Medium-Range Jet 23615 23806 28899 33662 Turbo-Prop 7823 7171 5542 3912 Air Taxi Piston Transport 729 Turbo-Prop 694 710 675 924 879 1204 1146 Military Piston Jet 237 1225 237 1225 237 1225 237 1225 General Aviation Business Jet 513 629 891 1453 Turbo-Prop 466 571 810 1319 Piston Transport 1306 1601 2269 3698 Helicopter 58 71 101 164 Piston 368 451 639 1042 TOTAL STANDIFORD 39904 AIRPORT BOWMAN FIELD Air Carrier Jumbo Jet 0 Long-Range Jet 0 Medium-Range Jet 34 Turbo-Prop 11 Air Taxi Piston Transport 365 Turbo-Prop 347 40017 45286 51932 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 402 533 673 382 507 640 112 ------- TABLE VI-16 (CONTINUED) BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES (lbs/year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Military Piston 47 Helicopter 169 General Aviation Business Jet 3226 Turbo-Prop 3226 Piston Transport 8212 Helicopter 367 Piston 2317 TOTAL BOWMAN FIELD 18321 HAP's AIRPORT General Aviation Piston 183 JEFFERSON COUNTY 29.1 TOTAL (tons/year) CLARK COUNTY 0.1 TOTAL (tons/year) 47 47 47 169 169 169 3430 4364 6164 3430 4364 6164 8732 11108 15690 390 496 701 2464 3134 4427 19446 24722 34675 195 262 381 29.7 35.0 43.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 113 ------- TABLE VI-17 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF SO,, 1973 1975 1980 1985 STANDIFORD AIRPORT Air Carrier Jumbo Jet 0 Long-Range Jet 3700 Medium-Range Jet 58174 Turbo-Prop 2845 Air Taxi Piston Transport 365 Turbo-Prop 625 Military Piston 119 Jet 3003 General Aviation Business Jet 1725 Turbo-Prop 420 Piston Transport 653 Helicopter 42 Piston 258 0 0 0 3700 3700 3700 58644 71192 82924 2608 2016 1423 355 462 603 608 792 1032 119 119 119 3003 3003 3003 2115 2997 4884 515 730 1189 801 1134 1849 51 73 119 316 448 731 TOTAL STANDIFORD 71929 AIRPORT BOWMAN FIELD Air Carrier Jumbo Jet 0 Long-Range Jet 0 Medium-Range Jet 85 Turbo-Prop 4 Air Taxi Piston Transport 182 Turbo-Prop 313 72835 86666 101576 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 201 266 336 345 457 577 114 ------- TABLE VI-17 (CONTINUED) BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS OF SO„ 1973 1975 1980 1985 Military Piston 24 24 24 24 Helicopter 514 514 514 514 General Aviation Business Jet 10851 11538 14678 20733 Turbo-Prop 2640 2807 3571 5044 Piston Transport 4106 4366 3554 7845 Helicopter 264 281 357 504 Piston 1622 1725 2194 3099 TOTAL BOWMAN FIELD 20605 21801 25615 38676 HAP's AIRPORT General Aviation Piston 128 136 183 268 JEFFERSON COUNTY TOTAL (tons/year) CLARK COUNTY TOTAL (tons/year) 46.3 0.1 47.3 0.1 56.1 0.1 70.1 0.1 115 ------- The resulting project emissions are given in Table VI-19. 15. Open Burning In Jefferson County, an air pollution control regulation, enacted after 1973, now prohibits all open burning. Emissions from this source category are projected to be zero. In Floyd and Clark Counties, base-line year emissions from back-yard incinerators and agricultural burning were calculated on the basis of popu- lation growth factors given in Table V-l. Emissions from the burning of driftwood are projected to be zero since another means of disposal is now required. The results are shown in Table VI-20. F. MISCELLANEOUS 16. Structural Fires A review of structural fire statistics maintained by the offices of the State Fire Marshals has indicated that the 1973 base-line year is typical of the years 1970-1974. Particulate emissions from this source category are projected to increase in accordance with the population growth factors given in Table V-l and are summarized in Table VI-18. SO^ emissions are negligible. TABLE VI-18 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM STRUCTURAL FIRES (Tons/Tear) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Jefferson County 22.3 23.0 24.7 26.7 Floyd County 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 Clark County 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.9 17. Frost Control There were no base-line year emissions in this source category and none are projected, since no change in agricultural practice is expected. 116 ------- TABLE VI—19 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM ON-SITE INCINERATION (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 64.7 35.2 38.9 43.0 Floyd County 8.7 8.8 10.0 10.9 Clark County 12.4 13.6 16.4 19.6 so2 Jefferson County 17.1 12.5 13.7 15.2 Floyd County 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.9 Clark County 4.4 4.8 5.8 6.9 117 ------- TABLE VI-20 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM OPEN BURNING (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 680.0 0 0 0 Floyd County 41.8 42.7 45.6 49.0 Clark County 1589.5 64.0 75.0 87.9 S°2 Jefferson County 0 0 0 0 Floyd County 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 Clark County 3.7 4.0 4.7 5.5 118 ------- 18. Slash Burning There were no base-line year emissions in this source category and none are projected, since silvicultural practice is not predicted to change. 19. Wild Forest Fires There were no wild forest fires in either Floyd or Clark County in 1973. Although both counties have a slight potential for forest fires, the minor contribution of this source category to total particulate emissions and the number of occurrences justifies the assumption of projected zero emissions. Furthermore, the inability to predict the location of possible fires makes impossible the determination of the effect on air quality. In the case of Jefferson County, emissions were projected to remain constant in 1975 and to decrease to 1.0 tons/year in 1980 and 1985 due to the encroachment of de- velopment on forest land. SC^ emissions are negligible. 20. Agricultural Burning There were no base-line year emissions in this source category and none are projected, since no change in agricultural practice is expected. 21. Unpaved Roads Particulate emissions from this source category in the base-line year accounted for 15% of total area source emissions in Jefferson County, 65% in Floyd County and 75% in Clark County. Although it is accepted "that some of the 1973 unpaved roads will be paved by 1980 and 1985 and that little new unpaved mileage will be added to the network over the decade, it is at this time impossible to estimate the decrease in unpaved road mileage. Because of the importance of the source category and the inability to make a rational judgment of its future contribution to air quality, it has been suggested by the States that emissions be projected as unchanging and that the effect of paving specific road sections will be considered in the development of control strategies. 22. Unpaved Airstrip Operations There was only one unpaved airstrip in the AQMA-Hap's Airport in Clark County. Particulate emissions are projected to increase between 1973 and 1975 to 2.7 tons/year of particulate matter in accordance with the projected increase 119 ------- in operations during this period as shown in Table VI-15. By 1980, with the opening of Clark County Airport, there will be no unpaved airstrip operations. 23. Tilling Activity Particulate emissions from this source category are projected to decrease with the compound decay rate of 1.00%/year used for farm tractor emissions. The resulting emissions are shown in Table VI-21. TABLE VI-21 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM TILLING ACTIVITY (tons/year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Jefferson County 65.3 64.0 60.9 57.9 Floyd County 31.0 30.4 28.9 27.5 Clark County 222.8 218.4 207.7 197.5 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock There were no area sources in this source category and none are projected. 25. Construction Activity Projected emissions of particulate matter are projected to increase in accordance with the growth factors for construction employment shown in Tables V-4 through V-6. The resulting county-wide emissions are given in Table VI-22. TABLE VI-22 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY (tons/year) 1973 1975 1980 198~ Jefferson County 457.3 487.0 506.7 546.9 Floyd County 10.8 11.1 11.9 12.7 Clark County 17.3 19.4 22.0 25.7 120 ------- 26. Windblown Dust In the base-line year emission inventory this source category was small and consisted of one known storage pile. Information provided by the owner of the crushed stone operation indicated no change in its size or character is anticipated. No plans for new permanent storage piles were uncovered. Emissions, therefore, are projected to remain constant. 27. Process Loss Emissions from this source category are projected to remain constant until 1975 and then increase in accordance with the growth in manufacturing employment given in Tables V-4 through V-6. Projected emissions are shown in Table VI- TABLE VI-23 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM PROCESS LOSSES (Tons/Year) 1973 1975 1980 1985 PARTICULATE Jefferson County 186.0 186.0 204.4 218.4 Floyd County 131.0 131.0 147.4 153.4 Clark County 61.5 61.5 75.8 85.9 so2 Jefferson County 61.0 61.0 67.0 71.6 Floyd County 0 0 0 0 Clark County 0 0 0 0 28. Paved Roads Emissions from this source category were projected to increase in accordance with projected growth in VMT shown in Table VI-12. Results are summarized in Table VI-24. County totals-are determined by reaggregating totals from census tracts. G. COUNTY SUMMARIES Tables VI-25 through VI-3Q are Summaries of county-wide projected emissions. 121 ------- TABLE VI-24 BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM PAVED ROADS (TONS/YEAR) 1973 1975 1980 1985 106 VMT 4231.41 4529.66 5275.26 6020.84 Growth Factor 1.000 1.070 1.247 1.423 Emis s ions AQMA 5484.1 5868.0 6838.7 7803.9 Jefferson County 4769.8 5088.0 59 30.4 6764.5 Floyd County 203.8 212.6 233.8 255.4 Clark County 510.6 567.3 674.5 784.0 122 ------- TABLE VI-25 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS JEFFERSON COUNTY (TON/YEAR) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Residential Fuel Industrial Fuel C/I Fuel Internal Fuel Farm Tractors Small Gas Engines Construction Equipment Railroads Vessels LDV HDEV HDDV Aircraft Incineration Open Burning Structural Fires Frost Control Slash Burning Wild Forest Fires Agricultural Burning Unpaved Roads Unpaved Airstrip Tilling Activity Mineral Processing Construction Activity Windblown Dust Process Loss Paved Roads 305.8 0 409.4 0.6 13.1 50.4 166.9 50.1 22.2 1,986.6 368.7 198.3 29.1 64.7 680.0 ¦ 22.3- 0 0 1.5 0 1,681.9 0 65.3 0 457.3 6.7 186.0 4,769.8 320.4 0 466.7 0.5 12.8 52.0 177.7 53.6 23.8 2,613.3 29.7 35.2 0 23.0 0 0 1.5 0 1,681.9 0 64.0 0 487.0 6.7 186.0 5,088.0 356.6 0 605.4 0.4 12.2 55.8 184.9 63.7 28.2 2,234.2 35.0 38.9 0 24.7 0 0 1.0 0 1,681.9 0 60.9 0 506.7 6.7 204.4 5,930.4 402.1 0 759 .3 0.6 11.6 60.4 199.6 75.6 33.5 2,248.5 43.3 43.0 0 26.7 0 0 1.0 0 1,681.9 0 57.9 0 546.9 6.7 218.4 6,764.5 TOTAL 11,536.7 11,323.8 12,032.0 13,181.5 123 ------- TABLE VI-26 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS FLOYD COUNTY (TON/YEAR) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Residential Fuel 48.3 49 .7 54.1 58.6 Industrial Fuel 22.2 24.3 27.0 28.8 C/I Fuel 15.1 15.4 23.4 29 .3 Internal Fuel 0 0 0 0 Farm Tractors 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 Small Gas Engines 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.7 Construction Equipment 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 Railroads 13.3 14.2 16.9 20.1 Vessels 6.2 6.6 7.9 9.4 LDV 86.1 HDGV 14.9 109 .2 88.1 84.9 HDDV 8.1 Aircraf t 0 0 0 0 Incineration 8.7 8.8 10.0 10.9 Open Burning 41.8 42.7 45.6 49.0 Structural Fires 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 Frost Control 0 0 0 0 Slash Burning 0 0 0 0 Wild Forest Fires 0 0 0 0 Agricultural Burning 0 0 0 0 Unpaved Roads 1,217.1 1,217.1 1,217.1 1,217.1 Unpaved Airstrips 0 0 0 0 Tilling Activity 31.0 30.4 28.9 27.5 Mineral Processing 0 0 0 0 Construction Acitivity 10.8 11.1 11.9 12.7 Windblown Dust 0 0 0 0 Process Loss 131.0 131.0 147.4 153.4 Paved Roads 203.8 212.6 233.8 255.4 TOTAL 1,872.1 1,887.0 1,926.6 1,972.2 124 ------- TABLE VI-27 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS CLARK COUNTY (TON/YEAR) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Residential Fuel 48.5 54.8 68.1 84.2 Industrial Fuel 61.2 88.3 124.8 170.1 C/I Fuel 45.8 57.5 83.6 113.8 Internal Fuel 0 0 0 0 Farm Tractors 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.5 Small Gas Engines 5.7 6.1 7.2 8.4 Construction Equipment 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.0 Railroads 16.7 17.9 21.2 25.3 Vessels 20.8 22.3 26.4 31.4 LDV 212.8 HDGV 39.4 291.4 254.1 260.6 HDDV 21.2 Aircraft 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Incineration 12.4 13.6 16.4 19.6 Open Burning 1,589.5 64.0 75.0 87.9 Structural Fires 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.9 Frost Control 0 0 0 0 Slash Burning 0 0 0 0 Wild Forest Fires 0 0 0 0 Agricultural Burning 0 0 0 0 Unpaved Roads 7,585.5 7,585.5 7,585.5 7,585.5 Unpaved Airstrip 2.5 2.7 0 0 Tilling Activity 222.8 218.4 207.7 197.5 Mineral Processing 0 0 0 0 Construction Activity 17.3 19.4 22.0 25.7 Windblown Dust 0 0 0 0 Process Loss 61.5 61.5 75.8 85.9 Paved Roads 510.6 567.3 674.5 784.0 TOTAL 10,488.8 9,085.7 9,257.9 9,496.5 125 ------- TABLE VI-28 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S09 EMISSIONS JEFFERSON COUNTY (TON/YEAR) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Residential F.uel 49 7.4 527.0 673.0 821.9 Industrial Fuel 0 0 0 0 C/I Fuel 703.1 844.2 1,185.9 1,565.2 Internal Fuel 0 0 0 0 Farm Tractors 9.0 8.8 8.4 8.0 Small Gas Engines 24.5 25.3 27.1 29.4 Construction Equipment 199.2 212.1 220.7 238.2 Railroads 98.0 104.9 124.4 148.0 Vessels 6.6 7.1 8.2 9.7 LDV 478.3 HDGV 100.7 901.3 1,058.4 1,215.0 HDDV 260.6 Aircraft 46.3 47.3 56.1 70.1 Incineration 17.1 12.5 13.7 15.2 Open Burning 0 0 0 0 Structural Fires 0 0 0 0 Frost Control 0 0 0 0 Slash Burning 0 0 0 0 Wild Forest Fires 0 0 0 0 Agricultural Burning 0 0 0 0 Unpaved Roads 0 0 0 0 Unpaved Airstrips 0 0 0 0 Tilling Activity 0 0 0 0 Mineral Processing 0 0 0 0 Construction Activity 0 0 0 0 Windblown Dust 0 0 0 0 Process Loss 61.0 61.0 67.0 71.6 Paved Roads 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 2,501.8 2,751.5 3,442.9 4,192.3 126 ------- TABLE VI-29 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED S02 EMISSIONS FLOYD COUNTY (TON/YEAR) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Residential Fuel 89.5 89.6 90.4 91.9 Industrial Fuel 53.7 59.4 66.3 71.0 C/I Fuel 30.7 31.4 52.1 67.3 Internal Fuel 0 0 0 0 Farm Tractors 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 Small Gas Engines 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 Construction Equipment 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 Railroads 26 .0 27.8 33.0 39.3 Vessels 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.7 LDV 20.7 HDGV 4.1 37.3 41.8 46.2 HDDV 10.6 Aircraf t 0 0 0 0 Incineration 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.9 Open Burning 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 Structural Fires 0 0 0 0 Frost Control 0 0 0 0 Slash Burning 0 0 0 0 Wild Forest Fires 0 0 0 0 Agricultural Burning 0 0 0 0 Unpaved Roads 0 0 0 0 Unpaved Airstrips 0 0 0 0 Tilling Activity 0 0 0 0 Mineral Processing 0 0 0 0 Construction Activity 0 0 0 0 Windblown Dust 0 0 0 0 Process Loss 0 0 0 0 Paved Roads 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 250.8 261.3 300.6 333.9 127 ------- TABLE VI-30 AREA SOURCE BASE-LINE YEAR AND PROJECTED SO,, EMISSIONS CLARK COUNTY (TON/YEAR) 1973 1975 1980 1985 Residential Fuel 82.6 Industrial Fuel 246.9 C/I Fuel 122.5 Internal Fuel 0 Farm Tractors 5.7 Small Gas Engines 2.8 Construction Equipment 3.2 Railroads 32.6 Vessels 6.1 LDV 51.2 HDGV 10.7 HDDV 27.9 Aircraft 0.1 Incinerat ion 4.4 Open Burning 3.7 Structural Fires 0 Frost Control 0 Slash Burning 0 Wild Forest Fires 0 Agricultural Burning 0 Unpaved Roads 0 Unpaved Airstrips 0 Tilling Activity 0 Mineral Processing 0 Construction Activity 0 Windblown Dust 0 Process Loss 0 Paved Roads 0 TOTAL 600.4 87.2 98.3 111.5 394.7 593.2 839.5 158.3 237.8 329.8 0 0 0 5.6 5.3 5.1 3.0 3.5 4.1 3.6 4.1 4.8 34.9 41.4 49.3 6.5 7.6 9.0 100.4 120.4 141.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.8 5.8 6.9 4.0 4.7 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 803.1 1,122.2 1,506.7 128 ------- CHAPTER VII PROJECTED AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS ALLOCATION AND ASSIGNMENT The following paragraphs discuss the methodology for allocation and assignment of county-wide projected emissions to the appropriate census tract. A. FUEL COMBUSTION 1. Residential Fuel Population projections by census tract were calculated and shown in Table V-l. Assumptions concerning the change in fuel split for residential heating were listed in Chapter VI, Section 1. With these population pro- jections, the changing fuel type distribution and the assumption that dwelling size distribution and heating degree/days do not change, emissions for each tract were calculated using the computer program described in Chapter IV, Section 1. 2. Industrial Fuel There were no projected emissions in this source category for Jefferson County. As in the base-line year such emissions were included in either the point source inventory or the process loss category. In Floyd County major industrial development is expected South of New Albany along the river, North of New Albany in the vicinity of 1-265 and Grant Line Road, in Georgetown Township near the intersection of 1-64 and US 150, with minor development near Greenville. For 1975 all growth was considered to occur in place. For 1985 growth was considered to occur as follows: 30% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 710.01. 10% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 709. 25% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 706. 20% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 712. 10% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 711. 5% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 710.02. 129 ------- The 1980 values of emissions from each tract are interpolated between 1975 and 1985. In Clark County, the 1990 planning map shows three proposed in- dustrial areas: near the new riverport, the northern part of Jeffersonville Township and near the new Clark County Airport. With 1975 growth in place and 1980 interpolated values, 1985 growth is expected to occur 80% of the 1975 to 1985 increment in Tract 507 and 20% in Tract 506. 3. Commerical and Institutional Fuel The total commercial and institutional allocation factors for the base-line year (see Chapter IV, Section 3) were increased in accordance with the fuel factors from Table VI-5. The results are shown in Table VII-1. In the case of Floyd County, growth units were adjusted downward to reflect the greater growth in place expected in that County. Units of growth were assigned to tracts in accordance with growth projections of new residential and commercial/institutional development taken from planning maps. These assignments are listed in Table VII-2. In general the assignment reflected major growth in the now less-developed suburbs and in Jefferson County at major developments along the Jefferson Freeway. See Chapter VII, Section 7 for further discussion of the locations of such developments. 4. Internal Fuel Combustion The one source in this category, the Jeffersontown pumping station, was assigned to Tract 111. B. OFF-ROAD VEHICLES 5. Farm Tractors For 1975 and 1980 projected emissions from this source category for all counties were allocated to the same tracts as for the base-line year, reduced by the decay factor suggested in Section VI-5. For 1985, emissions in Tract 127 were reduced by 50% from 1980. In Tracts 710.01 and 506 emissions were reduced by 100% from 1980. The re- maining emissions were allocated tc tracts in proportion to base-line year emissions. 130 ------- TABLE VII-1 GROWTH IN COMMERCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ESTABLISHMENTS NORMALIZED TO 1973 1973 1975 1980 1985 Jefferson County Fuel Factor ^ 1.000 1.045 1.154 1.275 Total C/l Factor 1229 1285 1418 1567 Growth Units 0 56 133 149 Floyd County Fuel Factor(1) 1.000 1.005 1.147 1.252 Total C/l Factor 68 68 78 85 Growth Units 0 10 7 Adjusted Growth Units 0 5 6 Clark County Fuel Factor(1) 1.000 1.100 1.322 1.579 Total C/l Factor 120 132 159 189 Growth 12 27 30 (1) Equivalent to growth in employment in trade, finance, insurance, and real estate, services and government. 131 ------- TABLE VII-2 ASSIGNMENT OF GROWTH UNITS TO TRACTS Tract No. Units Tract No. Units Tract No. Units 1975 45 46 55 56 75.01 75.02 91 92 100.02 100.03 101.01 101.02 102 103.01 103.02 2 2 2 3 3 1 10 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 104 105 106 107 108 109.01 109.02 110.01 110.02 111 119.01 119.02 119.03 120 121.01 121.02 122 123 124.01 124.02 124.03 125 TOTAL 501 503.01 504 505.01 505.02 506 TOTAL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 56 1 1 2 1 1 6 12 1980 17 28 32 35 38 1 1 1 1 1 114.01 114.02 115.01 115.02 116 1 2 1 10 2 706 707 710.01 TOTAL 1 1 3 132 ------- TABLE VII-2 (continued) Tract No. Units Tract No. Units Tract No. Units 48 49 54 56 91 102 103.01 103.02 104 107 109.01 110.02 113 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 22 13 1 1 1 117.01 117.02 117.03 118 119.02 119.03 120 121.01 121.02 122 124.01 124.02 124.03 TOTAL 4 4 10 3 4 4 10 7 5 3 1 1 5 501 502 503.01 503.02 504 505.01 505.02 506 507 508 509 510 TOTAL 133 1 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 7 1 2 1 27 19 85 6 10 18 26 28 29 33 34 35 47 49 54 56 72 113 114.01 114.02 115.01 116 117.01 117.02 117.03 118 119.01 119.02 119.03 120 121.01 1 1 3 10 2 4 4 10 3 1 4 5 11 8 708 709 710.01 710.02 711 712 TOTAL 501 503.01 503.02 504 505.01 505.02 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 9 133 ------- TABLE VT.I-2 (continued) Tract No. Units Tract No. Units Tract No. Units 91 3 121.02 6 506 5 102 2 122 3 507 5 103.01 2 123 1 508 1 103.02 2 124.01 1 509 3 104 22 124.02 1 510 1 106 1 124.03 5 TOTAL 30 107 14 125 1 110.02 1 127 1 111 1 128 1 TOTAL 149 134 ------- 6. Small Gasoline Engines Projected emissions from this source category were allocated in accordance with the population projections by tract given in Table V-2. 7. Construction Equipment In Jefferson County the base-line year emissions were divided into three categories of construction activity. The same scheme is used for the allocation of projected county-wide emissions: 1973 1975 1980 1985 Development 50% 50% 60% 75% Urban Renewal 25% 25% 15% 5% Highways 25% 25% 25% 20% For each year emissions resulting from urban renewal projects were allocated equally among the downtown census tracts: those north of Broadway between 14th Street and 1-65. Allocation of emissions from highway projects was based on the extent of construction in each tract and the dollar value of planned construction listed in the Transportation Improved Program. These projects are summarized below: 1975: Hikes Lane from Breckinridge to Bardstown Road. Jefferson Freeway from Westport to La Grange Road. 1980: Eastern Parkway from Third Street to Algonquin Parkway. Taylor Boulevard and Bluegrass Intersection. Jefferson Freeway from 1-65 to Preston Highway. Preston Highway from Manslick to Cooper Chapel Road. Riverport Road, north of project limits. 1985: Goss Avenue from Eastern Parkway to Shelby Street. Greenwood Road from Dixie Highway to Lower River Road. Preston Highway from Cooper Chapel Road to County Line. The remaining emissions from this source, category, those resulting from residential, commercial and industrial development were allocated as follows: o For 1975 emissions were allocated to Tracts 100 through 132 in 135 ------- accordance with base-line year emissions in those tracts. In general this resulted in emissions from development being limited to suburban tracts outside the expressway. o For 1980 and 1985, 25% of development emissions were allocated to Tract 127, the location of the riverport industrial park. The remainder \:ere distributed among those tracts along the new Jefferson Freeway with major development in 1980 at its intersection with Preston Road and in 1985 at its intersection with Bardstown Road. Tables VII-3 through VII-5 summarize the allocation of the three types of emissions from this source category for Jefferson County. In Floyd and Clark County projected emissions were allocated to tracts in accordance with projected growth shown on the planning maps. These alloca- tions are summarized in Tables VII-6 and VIT-7. 8. Railroads Projected emissions from both road haul lomotives and switch-yard operations were allocated in the same way as were the base-line year emissions: in accordance with the number of train miles in each census tract and on the size of the switch yards in 1973. This method assumes that each operating company will participate equally in projected growth in rail traffic with no new tracks or yards added. The latter assumption has been verified with the companies. 9. Vessels Allocation of projected emissions in this source category was made in accordance with the length of the River bank in each census tract, similar to the allocation of base-line year allocations. C. ROAD VEHICLES Similar to the base-line year allocation procedure, projected emissions from this source category were allocated by two methods: o Those projected emissions which could be associated with specific road links were assigned to the tract in which the link was located. o The remaining emissions were then allocated to tracts in accordance with the population distribution by tract. 136 ------- TABLE VII-3 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE JEFFERSON COUNTY - 1975 (%) "ract No. UR H D Tract No. UR H D 29 2.50 110.01 1.25 0.22 30 2.50 110.02 0.75 31 2.50 111 0.75 10.94 47 2.50 112 0.12 48 2.50 113 0.72 49 2.50 114.02 2.42 57 2.50 115.01 4.17 58 2.50 115.02 0.52 59 2.50 116 2.88 73 2.50 117.01 1.30 100.01 0.24 117.02 0.93 100.02 0.20 119.02 0.53 100.03 0.08 120 0.13 101.01 0.25 121.01 0.17 101.02 0.28 121.02 0.71 102 0.35 122 1.25 103.01 3.38 123 0.55 103.02 9.25 124.01 0.87 104 9.00 0.32 125 5.36 105 0.66 126.01 0.33 106 0.99 126.02 1.09 107 0.50 5.39 127 0.33 108 0.75 128 1.60 109.01 1.25 0.58 132 0.10 109.02 1.50 TOTAL 25.00 25.00 49.96 UR = Urban Renewal H = High Projects D = Development Projects 137 ------- TABLE VII-4 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE JEFFERSON COUNTY - 1980 (%) Tract No. UR H D Tract No. JJR y n. 29 1.50 104 1.11 30 1.50 10 7 1.10 31 1.50 111 2.46 35 2.00 114.01 0.54 36 2.25 114.02 0.81 37 2.00 115.01 1.05 43 0.25 115.02 0.89 44 0.25 116 0.58 45 0.25 117.01 3.50 00 00 46 0.25 117.02 3.50 5.12 47 1.50 117.03 0.23 48 1.50 119.01 1.50 1.13 49 1.50 119.02 3.50 4.33 57 1.50 119 .03 1.50 4.32 58 1.50 120 1.50 59 1.50 121.01 2.22 73 1.50 121.02 1.84 75.02 1.31 122 2.42 100.02 0.87 123 0.51 100.03 0.75 124.01 0.75 102 0.19 124.02 0.93 103.01 2.32 124.03 0.69 103.02 1.66 127 2.75 15.00 TOTAL 15.00 25.00 60.01 UR = Urban Renewal H = High Projects D = Development Projects 138 ------- TABLE VII-5 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT BY CONSTRUCTION TYPE JEFFERSON COUNTY - 1985 (%) Tract No. UR H D Tract No. UR H D 29 0.50 104 1.50 30 0.50 107 1.53 31 0.50 114.01 0.74 47 0.50 114.02 1.13 48 0.50 115.01 6.13 49 0.50 115.02 5.94 57 0.50 116 5.50 58 0.50 117.01 1.57 59 0.50 117.02 1.60 1.91 68 1.60 117.03 4.69 69 1.60 119.01 1.58 70 1.60 119.02 0.81 73 0.50 121.01 3.09 75.02 1.83 121.02 2.57 78 0.36 122 3.45 100.02 1.20 123 0.65 100.03 0.92 124.01 1.60 1.05 102 0.27 124.02 1.60 1.31 103.01 3.24 124.03 0.97 103.02 2.32 127 10.40 18.74 TOTAL 5.00 20.00 75.01 UR = Urban Renewal H = High Projects D = Development Projects 139 ------- TABLE VII-6 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION EQUIP FLOYD COUNTY (%) Trace No. 1975 1980 1985 701 0 0 0 702 0 0 0 703 10 5 5 704 0 0 0 705 5 0 0 706 15 10 10 707 5 0 0 708 15 10 5 709 15 10 10 710.01 15 25 30 710.02 5 5 5 711 5 10 10 7] 2 10 25 25 140 ------- act 501 502 503 503 504 505 505 506 507 508 509 510 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 30 35 5 10 5 TABLE VII-7 ALLOCATION OF PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT CLARK COUNTY (%) 1975 1980 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 10 5 15 10 15 10 25 30 10 25 5 5 10 10 "5 5 141 ------- TABLE VII-8 DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE PARTICULATE EMISSIONS BY ALLOCATION METHOD(%) Year CBD Central City Suburbs Total 1975 Location Residual Total 1.09 0.12 1.21 12.11 10.33 22.44 43.35 33.01 76.36 56.55 43.46 100.01 1980 Location Residual Total 1.13 0.12 1.25 12.12 9.01 21.13 45.92 31.69 77.61 59.17 40.82 99.99 1985 Locatd on Residual Total 1.17 0.12 1.25 12.12 8.09 20.21 47.69 30.81 78.50 60.98 39.02 100.00 142 ------- TABLE VII-9 DISTRIBUTION OF ROAD VEHICLE SO,, EMISSIONS BY ALLOCATION METHOD(%T Year CBD Central City Suburbs Total 1975 Location Residual Total 1.08 0.11 1.19 12.26 10.00 22.26 43.78 32.77 76.55 57.12 42.88 100.00 1980 Location Residual Total 1.13 0.12 1.25 12.20 8.87 21.07 45.71 31.97 77.68 59.04 40.96 100.00 1985 Location Residual Total 1.17 0.12 1.29 12.15 8.04 20.19 47.13 31.39 78.52 60.45 39.55 100.00 143 ------- Projected total AQMA emissions (Table VI-13) were disaggregated into three subareas and three functional classes. Within each tract in a subarea base-line year emissions assigned by the link specific method were increased in proportion to the growth in emissions from freeways and arterials. The remaining emissions in that subarea were then allocated in accordance with population. Each subarea was treated separately. Tables VII-8 and VII-9 shows the breakdown of allocations by the two methods. D. OTHER h'OBILE SOURCES 13. Aircraft Projected emissions in this source category were assigned to the tract in which the airports are located. E. SOLID WASTE 14. On-Site Incineration The method of allocation of base-line year emissions for this source varied among the counties because of differences in knowledge concerning the location of the incinerators. For 1975 projected emissions in Jefferson and Clark Counties, emissions for each incinerator operating in 1975 were increased by the growth factors for commercial and institutional fuel discussed in Chapter VI, Section 3. For 1980 and 1985 these emissions remained constant and the balance of emissions allocated in accordance with the C/I factors discussed in Chapter VII, Section 3. For Floyd County, for all years allocation was in accordance with C/I factors since the locations of the 1973 incinerators were unknown. 15. Open Burning There were no projected emissions for this source category in Jefferson County. 144 ------- Emissions from open burning sources in Clark County and Floyd County were allocated by 20% of projected population factors from Table V-2 to the Townships of New Albany, Clarksville and Jeffersonville. The remaining emissions were allocated to the remaining tracts in accordance with area. F. MISCELLANEOUS 16. Structural Fires Projected emissions from this source category were allocated in accordance with the population projections by census tract given in Table V-2. 17. Frost Control There were no projected emissions in this source category. 18. Slash Burning There were no projected emissions in this source category. 19. Wild Forest Fires There were no projected emissions in this source category in either Floyd or Clark County. Emissions in Jefferson County were assigned to Tract 120, the location of Jefferson County Memorial Forest. 20. Agricultural Burning There were no projected emissions in this source catetory. 21. Unpaved Roads As discussed in Chapter VI, Section 21, emissions from this source category are unchanged from the base-line year. 22. Unpaved Airstrips Projected emissions for this source category for 1975 were assigned to Tract 505.02, the location of Hap's Airport. There were no projected emissions for 1980 or 1985. 23. Tilling Activity Projected emissions for this source category were allocated in accord- ance with the procedure for allocating emissions from farm tractors given in Section VII-5. 145 ------- 24. Mineral Processing and Loading Crushed Rock There were no projected emissions in this source category. 25• Construction Activity Allocation of projected emissions from this source category were made in accordance with the factors given in Tables VII-3 through VII-7. 26. Windblown Dust The one source in this category was assigned to Tract 93, the location of the base-line year source. 27. Process Loss In Jefferson County all growth in emissions was assigned to Tract 127, the location of the new riverport industrial development site. In Floyd and Clark Counties projected emissions were allocated in the same manner as were projected emissions from the industrial fuel source category. 28. Paved Roads Allocation of projected emissions from this source category was made in accordance with the distribution of particulate exhaust emissions. 146 ------- BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA SHEET 1. Report No. 2. 3. Recipient's Accession No. 4. Title and Subtitle Louisville Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis, Volume 1: Area Source Emission Inventory and Projection 5. Report Date F ebruary, 197 6 6. 7. Auihor(s) 8. Performing Organization Rept. No. 9. Performing Organization Name and Address Engineering-Science, Inc. 7903 Westpark Drive McLean, VA 22101 10. Project/Task/Work Unit No. Task Order No. 7 11. Contract/Grant No. 68-02-1380 12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address Environmental Protection Agency, Region IV, Atlanta, GA; Kentucky Department for Natural Resourc and Environmental Protection; Indiana State Board of Health; and Jefferson County Air Pollution Control District [Kentucky]. 13. Type of Report & Period Covered es 14. 15. Supplementary Notes 16. Abstracts This report gives the results of the work done "by Engineering-Science, Inc., in support of the maintenance analysis for the Louisville, Kentucky Air Quality Maintenance Area, which is made up of Jefferson County, Kentucky and Clark and Floyd Counties, Indiana. This work fell into four stages: (l) update of the 1973 baseline emission inventory provided by Jefferson County; (2) allocation of the baseline year emission inventory to subcounty and/or Air Quality Display Model grid squares; (3) projection of county or subcounty emission inventories to 1975, 1980, and 1985; and (ii) allocation of the projected emission inventories to subcounty and/or Air Quality Display Model grid squares. This work was accomplished in accordance with procedures described in EPA's various Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. Fifteen cate- gories of area source emissions were listed and projected for sulfur dioxide and twenty-four for total suspended particulate. 17. Key Words and Document Analysis. 17a. Descriptors Air Pollution Statistical Inference Sulfur Dioxide Suspended Particulate 17b. Identifiers/Open-F.nded Ter 17c. COSAT1 Field ''Group 18. A va i labi 1 lty Statement Unlimited release 19. Security Class (This Report) UNCLASSIFIED w Security Class (This Page UNCLASSIFIED 21. No. of Pages 22. Price FORM ntis-35 (rev. 10-73) ENDORSED BY ANSI AND UNESCO. THIS FORM MAY BE REPRODUCED USCOMM-DC 8265-P74 ------- |