Draft Final Report

The Cost of Environmental Protection:
EPA, the States, and Local Governments

Submitted to:

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Office of the Comptroller

Submitted by:

A. APOGEE RESEARCH, INC.

April 7, 1989

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This paper was written by Lynne Abdel-Megeid and Kenneth I.
Rubin of Apogee Research. Many at Apogee contributed to the
collection, analysis, and graphical interpretation of our data base
on environmental expenditures including: Russ Brodie, Amy Doll,
Lori Hyman, Sonny Jose, Neil Tender, and Jordan Ellenberg. John
Cromwell of Wade Miller Associates, Inc. provided insightful text
and comprehensive analysis of public and private expenditures under
the drinking water program. Paul Scodari of the Environmental Law
Institute provided estimates of the costs of all new environmental
regulations. The authors wish to thank the following EPA officials
for their constructive comments on early drafts: David Osterman,
Tim McProuty, Peg Binney, Skip Luken, Bill O'Neil, Brett Snyder,
and Alan Carlin.

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Sr-4^



o

PPO^t0

UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460

MAY 15 1989

MAY 0 4 1989

OFFICE OF
REGIONAL ADMINISTRATOR

OFFICE OF
ADMINISTRATION
AND RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT

MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT:
FROM:

Cost of EnvirlorWe

David P. Ryan
Comptroll

TO:

tection - Draft Report

Steering Committee o
Task Force on Public
Assistant Administrators
Regional Administrators
Assistant Regional Administrators
OARM Office Directors

ublie-Private Partnerships
Partnerships

As we discussed in earlier meetings, one objective of the
Public-Private Partnerships initiative is to document the current
and future costs of environmental protection to determine funding
needs. Accordingly, I am pleased to provide you with this draft
report entitled "The Cost of Environmental Protection: EPA, the
States and Local Governments" prepared by Apogee Research, Inc.
for your review and comment.

Purpose of the Study

This study documents the costs of environmental protection
for the public sector and uses the data to:

o Examine the growing gap between current expenditures and
future costs of environmental protection;

o Assess trends in the distribution of costs among EPA, states
and local governments; and

o identify the financial impact of environmental programs on
local governments, capital markets, and households.

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costs Examined

The study examines spending data for environmental programs
during 1981-1987 and projects them to the year 2000. This
projection estimates the future costs of maintaining existing
standards at 1987 levels of compliance.

It also incorporates the findings of the municipal sector
study. That study examined the future cost impact of 22 new
environmental regulations on municipalities. Both studies will
serve as building blocks for future EPA "Cost of Clean" reports.

Major Findings

1.	The gap between current spending (1987) and future costs
is estimated to grow to nearly $ 21 billion by the year
2000.

Of this, $ 15.6B will be needed by governments to
maintain 1987 levels of compliance levels for
existing standards.

And, $ 5.3B will be needed by local governments to
comply with 22 new environmental standards.

2.	There will be a shift in who pays for environmental
protection between the federal and local levels.

—	For the period from 1981-2000, federal spending will
decline by about one-third, while local spending
will nearly double.

3.	To accommodate these growing costs; by the year 2000, the
average family will need to spend more on environmental
services.

Specifically, average costs will increase by 54%,
from $419 per household in 1987 to $647 per
household in 2000.

—	This represents an increase from 1.3 to 1.8 percent
of average household income.

During the same period, household costs in small
communities (population under 500) will double.

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implications of the Report

Although it is clear that the cost of environmental services
will increase in the future, this may be mitigated by a number of
factors. First, the higher cost must be viewed in the context of
expected cost increases for other commodities such as energy,
transportation and food. Second, it should also be recognized that
a portion of the increase will be covered by increases in future
revenues resulting from economic growth. Third, the development
of new technologies may reduce the costs of providing environmental
protection. Finally, costs can be reduced by implementing more
innovative and efficient ways of financing environmental
activities.

Public-private partnerships are one such innovative and
efficient way to finance these activities, particularly at the
local level. By reducing costs and freeing up resources for other
investments, these partnerships can increase the public monies
available for meeting environmental needs.

Next Steps

o Revise draft "Cost of Environmental Protection Report"
based on comments received.

o Consolidate data from this report with data collected on
private sector costs and incorporate analyses into OPPE's
Congressionally-mandated "Cost of Clean" reports.

o Conduct additional Sector Studies at the state and local
levels (OPPE).

Comments

Please provide any comments you have on the draft report by
May 24, 1989 to David Osterman, PM 225 or E-Mail 3720. Thank you
for your continuing cooperation and assistance in working to assure
the success of the Public-Private Partnerships initiative.

Attachment

I

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Note:

All spending figures in this report are
presented in 1988 dollars unless
otherwise noted

ii

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 	 v

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY 	 V

WHAT COSTS ARE EXAMINED? 	 V

SPENDING WILL HAVE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO MAINTAIN

CURRENT	.	vi

THE GAP BETWEEN CURRENT SPENDING AND FUTURE COSTS IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEARLY $21 BILLION A YEAR BY THE

YEAR 2000 		vi

SPENDING FOR WATER QUALITY WILL NOT INCREASE MORE SLOWLY

THAN FOR DRINKING WATER AND SOLID WASTE 	vi

THE LOCAL SHARE OF PUBLIC ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING WILL

INCREASE 	vii

LOCAL DEMANDS FOR CAPITAL ARE PROJECTED TO DOUBLE (1981-

2000) *•••*****••••••••••••« v x x

HOUSEHOLD COSTS IN SMALL COMMUNITIES WILL INCREASE

DRAMATICALLY 	 vii

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?	viii

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION AMD METHODOLOGY 	 	 1

DEFINITION OF EXPENDITURES 		2

WHICH ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES, REGULATIONS, AND SECTORS

ARE INCLUDED? 			2

Calculating Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels

of Environmental Quality 		2

Calculating Local Environmental Costs Associated

With New Regulations		4

How Future Costs Were Derived 		6

COST ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES USED IN THIS STUDY		7

CHAPTER II

OVERVIEW — THE COST OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION	 8

THE COST OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS AND

SERVICES 		8

Expenditure Trends by Environmental Program .... 10
Environmental Expenditures by Level of Government . 14

Local Governments	14

EPA	14

State Government	14

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ADDITIONAL LOCAL COSTS OF NEW REGULATIONS 	 17

Total Local Year-2000 Expenditures by Media .... 22

CHAPTER III

IMPACT OF SPENDING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

ON CAPITAL MARKETS	24

CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS ...	24

SUBSTITUTION OF LOCAL FOR FEDERAL CAPITAL	28

FINANCING LOCAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITIES 		28

Wastewater Treatment 		28

Water Supply		

Solid Waste Management 		32

IMPACT ON CAPITAL FORMATION 	 32

Can the Capital Markets Respond? ...»	32

Limitations on Municipal Capital Financing ....	33

CHAPTER IV

IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING ON HOUSEHOLDS 		36

HOUSEHOLD COSTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS 		38

Household Payments by City Size To Maintain Current

Levels of Environmental Quality 		38

Household Payments for New Regulations 		40

Household Payments for Environmental Programs

Compared to Income		

Household Payments by Program 		40

CHAPTER V

CONCLUSIONS	44

IMPACTS	44

POLICY CONSIDERATIONS 	 45

Appendix 1. List of Environmental Regulations Applicable to Local

Governments but not Included in the Cost Estimates

Appendix 2. Tables of Data Corresponding to Figures in the Report

Appendix 3. Differences in Methodology and Content Between	the

Municipal Sector Study and this Report

Appendix 4. Average Annual Household User Charges for Environmental

Services in 1987, by Environmental Service

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Since the early 1970s, the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) has overseen a national mandate to restore and protect
our water, land and air resources. In this massive undertaking,
EPA has relied heavily on state and local governments to help
administer programs and to expend resources to comply with
requirements. However, the expanded programs and tightened
controls of the environmental legislation enacted in the 1980s
challenge our ability to pay for future environmental needs.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

This study documents the costs of environmental protection for
EPA, states, and local governments and uses these data to:

o Examine the growing gap between current expenditures
and future costs of environmental protection

o Assess trends in the distribution of costs among EPA,
states, and local governments

o Identify the cost impacts of environmental policies

on local governments, capital markets, and households

WHAT COSTS ARE EXAMINED?

This report examines environmental expenditures over the
period 1981-1987 and projects them to the year 2000. These
projections are estimates of the future costs of maintaining
existing environmental standards, assuming the same level of
compliance as in 1987. In addition, the report examines local costs
of new environmental regulations that local governments will bear
in the future.

The report complements the work of the Municipal Sector Study
recently completed by EPA. The Sector Study examined the future
costs of 22 new environmental regulations and their impacts on
municipalities. Both studies will serve as building blocks for the

1The Municipal	SfiStfil	StUdY?	Impacts	2f	Environmental

Regulations on Municipalities. Office of Policy Planning and
Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (September 1988).
See Appendix 3 for an explanation of the differences between the
methodology and content of the Sector Study and this report.

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Agency's upcoming "Cost of Clean" report.2

SPENDING WILL HAVE TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
PROGRAMS

In 1987, EPA, states, and local governments spent $40 billion
for environmental protection, compared to $31 billion a year a
decade earlier. If recent trends continue, they will need to spend
over $55 billion in the year 2000 just to maintain 1987 levels of
environmental quality.

THE GAP BETWEEN CURRENT SPENDING AND FUTURE COSTS IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEARLY $21 BILLION A YEAR BY THE YEAR 2Qnn

Spending trends reveal two important cost gaps. The first,
about $15.6 a year by the year 2000, is the amount of government
spending needed, in addition to 1987 expenditures, to maintain 1987
levels of environmental quality. The second, $5.3 billion a year
in 2000, is the amount of local government spending needed to
comply with the new environmental regulations examined in this
study.

Together these gaps represent a difference of nearly $21
billion between what governments spent in 1987 and what we expect
them to spend by 2000 for environmental protection. The gap could
narrow if we are more efficient in meeting environmental goals.
However, these estimates are conservative since they do not include
the costs to EPA and states of new regulations or the costs
associated with future Congressional mandates and the growing
number of new state and local environmental mandates.

SPENDING FOR WATER QUALITY WILL INCREASE MORE SLOWLY THAN FOR
DRINKING WATER AND SOLID WASTE

With the exception of the air quality program, expenditures
to maintain current levels of environmental quality have steadily
increased in the 1980s and are expected to continue to do so in the
1990s. Spending for some programs, however, will increase more than
others.

In the 1990s, increases in government spending for water
quality are not expected to keep pace with rates of growth in other
environmental programs. Between 1987 and 2000, spending for

2The Clean Air and Water Acts require that EPA prepare a
Report to Congress every five years estimating the costs of
carrying out the respective acts. The next report will be
submitted in 1989.

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38 percent, respectively. Spending for water quality will increase
by 24 percent.

THE LOCAL SHARE OF PUBLIC ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING WILL INCREASE

Local spending is projected to increase significantly by the
turn of the century. In 1981, local spending was about $26
billion, or 76 percent of the government share of environmental
costs. By the year 2000, localities will need to spend over $48
billion to maintain 1987 levels of environmental quality and will
bear 87 percent of government costs for environmental protection.

In contrast, EPA expenditures are expected to decline by about
one-third, from $6.3 billion in 1981 to $4.3 billion in 2000. EPA's
share of spending on the environment will drop from 13 to 8 percent
between 1987 and 2000. This drop is due largely to the phasing-out
of EPA grants to build wastewater treatment plants.

Although little is known about future state outlays for
environmental programs, trends identified in a recent EPA study
suggest that by the year 2000 states will need to spend more than
twice the amount spent in 1987 to administer water programs.3 State
administrative costs could triple by 2 000 if the air and solid
waste programs impose similar demands.

LOCAL DEMANDS FOR CAPITAL ARE PROJECTED TO DOUBLE (1981-2000^

The key issue in examining the impact of environmental
spending on capital markets is the ability of local governments to
support higher levels of capital formation. We project that annual
local demands for capital to maintain current levels of
environmental quality could double from about $8 billion in 1981
to over $16 billion in 2000. Additional demands for capital
imposed by new regulations will add more than $2 billion a year by
2000. EPA analyses indicate that increased levels of capital
formation may prove difficult for many small and medium-sized
cities.

HOUSEHOLD COSTS TN SMALL COMMUNITIES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY

Costs to households of environmental regulations are measured
by increased user charges, increased general taxes, and/or reduced
levels of services in other municipal programs. There are also

State Funding study. Details of State Needs. Funding. Funding
Gapf U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (August 8, 1988). Trends
in the State Funding Study were extended from 1995 to 2000 in order
to provide consistent data for this report.

vii

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levels of services in other municipal programs. There are also
indirect costs, such as when private industries pass their share
of environmental costs to households in the form of price increases
for goods and services.

The annual cost of environmental programs for the average
household is expected to increase by 54 percent from $419 in 1987
to $647 in 2000. Over the same period, however, household costs
for small cities are expected to increase more dramatically. In
cities with fewer than 500 people, they will more than double, from
$670 in 1987 to $1,580 in 2000.

The financial impact of environmental costs on households can
be examined by measuring costs as a percentage of household income.
The results show a significant impact on households in small cities
(less than 500 population), for whom expenditures are expected to
increase from 2.8 percent to 5.6 percent of household income
between 1987 and 2000. On average, impacts are much less for
households in all other city size categories, with projected
increases of about one-half percentage point to 1.8 percent of
household income by the year 2000.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

The growing costs of environmental protection suggest the need
to reexamine how we make such investments. The large differences
between current spending and future costs clearly indicate the need
for more innovative ways to finance environmental programs,
particularly at the local level.

One way to meet this challenge is to charge more and spend
more on environmental services. On the other hand, we could reduce
costs by limiting environmental goals. However, increased public
support for a cleaner environment suggests that expenditures will
increase, not decline.

EPA is studying a third option, forming public-private
partnerships to help provide environmental services. Greater
private involvement can increase public resources available for
environmental protection in at least two ways:

o Private equity can free municipal resources for other
investments, and

o Even without private financing, properly designed and
executed partnerships can provide improved environmental
services at the lowest possible cost to the public

We must seek innovative financing strategies, particularly at
the local level, to meet the environmental resource challenges
facing this country in the 1990s and beyond. This is absolutely

viii

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necessary if we are to preserve and build on the many important,
hard-won environmental gains made during the past two decades.

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CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

Since the early 1970s, the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) has overseen our national mandate to restore and
protect water, land, and air resources. Carrying out this mandate
has proven expensive for all levels of government.

Faced with escalating environmental protection costs in
competition with the fiscal pressures attributable to other public
programs, governments may be limited in their ability to finance
all the environmental protection activities anticipated by
Congress. The largest problems lie with local governments that have
low economies of scale in provision of environmental services and
limited ability to raise large amounts of capital.

This study documents recent government expenditures for
environmental protection and projects future costs to the year
2000. costs associated with new regulations are added to the costs
of maintaining current levels of environmental quality in order to
examine the growing gap between current expenditures and future
costs of environmental protection. In turn, trends in the
distribution of costs among EPA, states and local governments are
assessed. Finally, the impacts of environmental policies on local
governments, capital markets, and households are analyzed.

Trends in the expenditures of local governments and impacts
at the local level are examined in more detail than for other
levels of government because more local data are available at this
time. This analysis provides background for a separate evaluation
of financing alternatives to meet the rising cost of environmental
protection.

While this report focuses on the costs of environmental
regulations and the ability of local governments and households to
pay for environmental improvements, investments in environmental
quality yield substantial benefits. Those cited most often include

4epa is collecting data for the 1989 Report to Congress, The
cost of Clean Air and Water. In addition to the data Provided in
the present report, The Cost of Clean Air and Water will include
federal non-EPA expenditures and environmental expenditures by
private industry associated with current and new regulations.

'Apogee Research, inc., public-Private Partnerships—far

Environmental	ApatOfflV*—InC^ntriy^B*

prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
the Comptroller, Resource Management Division (October 17, 1988).

1

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reduced incidence of disease and death, reduced property damages,
increased levels of recreation, improved fish and shellfish yields'
enhanced property values, and related aesthetic improvements.
Investments in the environment also yield stronger local economies.

While such an analysis lies beyond the scope of this study,
understanding the links between such investments and community
well-being is important in helping identify financing alternatives
to support environmental programs.

DEFINITION OF EXPENDITURES

The terms expenditures, spending, and outlays are used
interchangeably in this report. They follow the definition of
expenditures used by the Bureau of the Census. Capital
expenditures include acquisitions of depreciable plant and
equipment, replacement, and expansion as well as expenditures for
construction in progress. Research and development spending is
excluded.

Operating and maintenance expenditures account for the
purchase of materials, parts, supplies, fuel, and power; upkeep or
leasing of equipment; direct labor; and purchased contract
services. Depreciation of plant and equipment are excluded, as are
the costs of financing capital equipment.

This report examines two kinds of expenditures:(1) those to
maintain the current levels of environmental quality and (2) those
to comply with new regulations.

WHICH ENVIRONMENTAL	SERVICES ,	KEenditures	tS	MfllnUin	CVHTrent	Levels of

Environmental Quality

A. Environmental services

o Wastewater Treatment - expenditures pursuant to the Clean
Water Act, including expenditures for construction,
management, and operation of facilities to monitor and
control municipal and industrial wastewater

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0 nrInking Water - expenditures pursuant to the Safe
Drinking Water Act plus expenditures to supply adequate
quantities of potable water

n solid Waste - expenditures pursuant to Subtitle D of the
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) plus
expenditures for solid waste collection, transportation,
and disposal services

o ffar*yHnns waste - expenditures pursuant to RCRA,
exclusive of those for Subtitle D

ft Simerfund - expenditures pursuant to the Comprehensive
Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act
(CERCLA)

o Air Quality - expenditures pursuant to the Clean Air Act

o Tsubstances - expenditures pursuant to the Toxic
Substances Control Act (TSCA)

r> Pesticides - expenditures pursuant to the Federal
Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA)

o Energy - expenditures pursuant to the Energy Security Act

In addition, this study covers several EPA program areas that
are administered independently of the above programs, including
management and support, interdisciplinary, radiation, and the
Leaking Underground Storage Tank Trust Fund.

B. Sectors

Expenditures to maintain current levels of environmental
quality include those by EPA, states, and local governments, as
currently available in public budgets and national aggregate
statistics. Although a major effort was made to include most of
the relevant costs, several gaps in the data were unavoidable.
Expenditures that are included in this study and those that we were
not able to gather at this time are summarized below by sector.

Federal At the federal level, this study includes only
programs managed by the EPA, although other federal agencies
administer similar programs. EPA expenditures by program area were
derived from the agency's annual budget justification documents.

^he following programs are included: construction grants,
water quality, hazardous waste, solid waste, Superfund, air
quality, drinking water, toxic substances, pesticides, energy,
radiation, underground storage tanks, management and support, and
interdisciplinary.

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State Governments. The Bureau of the Census collects the only
consistent data on state expenditures to administer air, drinking
water, and wastewater treatment programs. They are reproduced in
this study as provided by Census. Expenditures for leaking
underground storage tank and hazardous waste programs were
estimated from the requirements to match federal grants. For each
of these program areas, it is impossible to distinguish among the
various types of state expenditures, such as program
administration, assistance to local governments, compliance, and
intergovernmental coordination. At this time, we are unable to
gather consistent time-series data on state expenditures for solid
waste, Superfund, or hazardous waste programs.

Local Governments. Local expenditures are also reproduced from
Census reports, although the figures for intergovernmental grants
to localities have been removed in this study, leaving only local
spending from own sources. Expenditures are included for drinking
water, wastewater treatment, and solid waste management services.
While local expenditures for other programs are not reported to the
Bureau of the Census in separate categories, they may be reported
under one of the above categories.

Local capital and operating expenditures for drinking water
and solid waste management cover both the delivery of adequate
quantities of services (water flows to meet all demands; adequate
garbage removal and disposal) and the assurance of mandated quality
of services (maximum concentration of pollutants in potable water;
testing and containment in landfills). To be fair in a comparison
of the effects of future regulations, one might argue that the
appropriate baseline is quality expenditures, exclusive of those
to deliver adequate ^antities. While arguably appropriate, the
data were not sufficiently detailed to separate expenditures for
quantity from those for quality of service. Therefore, in
projecting the cost of maintaining current programs, both of these
components were included.

Calculating Local Environmental	SssJfeS	Associated With New

Regulations

In this report, costs of new regulations include only those
for local governments. The new regulations considered in the study
are associated with local wastewater treatment, drinking water, and
solid waste programs. In addition, estimates of costs are provided
for several other regulations that are independent of these program
areas. In total, costs were estimated for 22 new regulations (see
Table 1).

The estimated local costs of new regulations were derived from
Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) prepared for EPA program offices.
These estimates are conservative for a number of reasons. First,

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Table 1. New Regulations That Impose Local Costs
(Included in the Cost Analysis)

Regulation

Status

A.	DRINKING WATER

1.	Inorganic Compounds (IOCs)

2.	Synthetic Organic Compounds (SOCs)

3.	Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)

4.	Fluorides

5.	Lead and Copper Corrosion Control

6.	Lead and Copper MCL

7.	Coliform Monitoring

8.	Surface Water Treatment Rule: Filtered

9.	Surface Water Treatment Rule: Unfiltered

10.	Radionuclides

11.	Disinfection

B.	WASTEWATER TREATMENT

1.	Secondary Treatment of Municipal
Wastewater

2.	Pretreatment Requirements

3.	Sewage Sludge Disposal-
Technical Regulations
for Use and Disposal

4.	Stormwater Management

C.	SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL

1. Municipal Landfill Subtitle
D Criteria

2.. Municipal Waste Combusters
Air Standards

3. Municipal Waste Combusters
Ash Disposal

D.	MISCELLANEOUS REGULATIONS

1.	Underground Storage Tanks
Technical Standards

2.	Underground Storage Tanks
Financial Standards

3.	Asbestos in Schools Rule

4.	SARA Title III Requirements

In Development

In Development

Promulgated

Promulgated

Proposed

Proposed

Proposed

Proposed

Proposed

In Development

In Development

Promulgated

Promulgated
In Development

In Development

Proposed
In Development
In Development

Promulgated

In Development

Promulgated
Promulgated

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of the 37 pending regulations with an impact for local governments,
only 22 had sufficiently precise cost estimates for inclusion in
this study.7 Second, when RIAs estimate capital costs, they
generally include only the installed cost of plant and equipment.
When these investments are financed with municipal or industrial
bonds or loans, transaction costs can add 20 percent or more to the
capital cost estimates. Moreover, this study cannot account for
several regulations that are currently under development pursuant
to the federal environmental statutes reauthorized in the mid-
1980s.8 Also, several major programs will be reauthorized in the
next few years including RCRA and the Clean Air Act. New costs
associated with these programs could be significant. Finally, this
study does not incorporate the cost of new state environmental
regulations that would impose costs in addition to those
attributable to federal regulations.

How Future Costs Were Derived

Current Regulations. The future costs of maintaining today's
level of environmental quality were estimated for each program area
and level of government by regressing five years of historical
trends in spending against time. This assumes that the factors
contributing to recent spending trends will continue to do so in
the future. such factors include population growth, the
implementation of current policies, rates of compliance,
replacement of current capital facilities, and budget cutbacks.
Significant changes in any of these factors could have an important
effect on costs. For example, rates of compliance are related to
enforcement efforts. If enforcement activities increase, then
costs would be expected to increase as a result of higher rates of
compliance. Full compliance is assumed in estimating costs of new
regulations.

New Regulations. The costs and timing of new regulations with
an impact on local governments were estimated based on information
included in Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) prepared for EPA's
program offices. The Environmental Law Institute, which provided
all estimates on future costs, chose to represent demands for
capital attributable to each new regulation either as a single lump
sum in the year in which capital will first be required or
spread out in equal lumps over a relatively short average time
during which affected entities comply with programs. This method

'Appendix 1 to this report presents a list of the pending
regulations applicable to local governments but not included in
the cost analysis.

'including the 1984 Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments to
the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (HSWA), the 1986
Superfund amendments (SARA), the 1986 Safe Drinking Water Act
amendments, and the 1987 amendments to the Clean Water Act.

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of estimating demand for capital results in graphs showing erratic
changes from year to year. In practice, regulations will phase in,
imposing smoother demands for capital over a 5 to 10 year
compliance period.

COST ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES USED IN THIS STUDY

This report presents three views of the costs of environmental
protection:

o A budgetary perspective that accounts for capital and
operating outlays in the year they are incurred as
reported in federal, state, and local budgets

o A canital markets perspective that isolates demands for
capital to build new facilities or expand existing
facilities to comply with environmental and service
standards

O a household impacts perspective that accounts for capital
expenditures as if they were financed with long-term
bonds, with annualized payments for capital added to
annual local operating and maintenance payments

Each view provides insights that may be significant to
different audiences. The details associated with each perspective
are discussed in subsequent chapters.

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CHAPTER II

OVERVIEW — THE COST OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

Under Congress's statutory direction, the EPA has expended
considerable resources to develop the components of broad national
programs, including minimum national standards for environmental
quality, permit systems, enforcement procedures, and remediation
protocols. By offering grants and other forms of assistance, EPA
has encouraged states to help implement our national programs.
Most states, however, have also committed their own resources to
administer the basic programs and others that reach beyond minimum
federal standards. Despite federal and state grants to localities,
local governments that provide drinking water, wastewater, and
solid waste management services have contributed much of the cost
to build capital facilities and almost all of the cost to operate
and maintain them.

This chapter provides an overview of environmental
expenditures from 1981 to 2000, both to maintain current levels of
environmental quality and to meet standards associated with new
regulations. Expenditures are examined by program and by sector.

THE COST OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS AND SERVICES

In 1987, EPA, states, and local governments spent an estimated
$40 billion for environmental protection (see Figure 1) . If recent
trends continue, environmental expenditures by all levels of
government are expected to increase to $55 billion in the year 2000
just to maintain current levels of environmental quality.
Extending current trends assumes, of course, that recent levels of
compliance and rates of capital expansion and replacement remain
steady throughout the projection period.

The capital portion of these expenditure estimates may be low
if, as some experts argue, future spending will have to be higher
to recover from the effects of deferred maintenance and
rehabilitation. For this report, it was assumed that rehabilitation
and maintenance of capital Dlant would be undertaken at the same
rate as in recent years. If spending for maintenance and

'National Council on Public Works Improvement, Fragile
Foundations: A Report on the Nation's Public Works (February 1988).
The National Council on Public Works Improvement reported a steady
increase in net depreciated capital assets from 1960 to 1987 for
drinking water and wastewater treatment services, with asset bases
increasing by 2.5 percent each year for drinking water and by 4.4
percent each year for wastewater treatment. While some of this
investment is due to higher quantity and levels of service, it is
clear that new additions to the capital stock have outpaced the
depreciation of existing plant and equipment.

8

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Figure 1

Projected EPA, State, and Local Government
Expenditures to Maintain Existing Levels of Environmental
Quality Compared to Their Current Environmental Expenditures

—¦	1	 i

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991

1993 1995 1997 1999

$15.6 Billion

Additional EPA, state,
and locaL government
spending to maintain
existing levels of
environmental quality

Fiscal Year

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances

(various years): Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control
Expenditures (various years); Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Coat
and Expenditure Survey (various years); U.S.EPA, Justification of Appropriation
Estimates for Committee on Appropriations (various years).

9

-------
rehabilitation has indeed been inadequate in the past, then
incorporating the historical trend of capital outlays in the
forecast of future costs embodies the assumption that the backlog
of infrastructure rehabilitation needs will continue to grow.
Capital expenditure estimates are particularly important for
drinking water and water quality because of the large amount of
capital plant associated with these services.

Expenditure Trends bv Environmental Program

With the exception of the air quality program, expenditures
to maintain current levels of environmental quality have steadily
increased in the 1980s and are expected to continue to do so in the
1990s (see Figure 2).10 Rapid growth in spending for "other"
environmental programs is attributable largely to steady increases
in Superfund program activities. Spending in some programs,
however, will increase more substantially than in others (see
Figure 3) . While spending for drinking water and solid waste
programs will increase as a percentage of the total, water quality
expenditures will decrease as a percentage of total spending.

Water Quality. In the 1980s, governments devoted roughly $16
billion a year, or 46 percent of all environmental expenditures,
to restore the quality of surface and ground water. Most of the $16
billion was used to build and operate municipal wastewater
treatment plants. In the 1990s, increases in national spending for
water quality are not expected to keep pace with rates of growth
in other environmental programs. Thus, compared to its 46 percent
share in 1981, water quality expenditures could drop to a 36
percent share of environmental expenditures by the year 2000.
Future water quality expenditures to maintain current levels of
water quality will be dominated by costs of building new or
upgrading existing facilities to provide secondary treatment as
required in the Clean Water Act (CWA). EPA estimated in 1988 that
$83.5 billion in capital expenditures would be required to bring
all municipal wastewater treatment facilities into compliance with

10The Clean Air Act was last reauthorized in 1976 and most of
the regulations attributable to the clean air program have had
their major cost effects already. Congress is now debating a new
Clean Air Act, which undoubtedly will impose new costs on
governments and the private sector. That these costs cannot be
included in this study probably underestimates the projected
outlays for air quality control.

"The "other" category also includes the Leaking Underground
Storage Tank Program, interdisciplinary studies, administration
within EPA, plus EPA programs in energy, radiation, pesticides,
and toxic substances.

10

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Figure 2

Total EPA, State, and Local Government
Expenditures to Maintain Current
Levels of Environmental Quality, by Media

1981 - 2000

60

50

w
u

CO

o 40

Q

CO
CO
05

^ 30

i

O

cn

o 20

•	H

•

DQ

10

0

Fiscal Year

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances

(various years); Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control
Expenditures (various years): Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Cost
and Expenditure Survey (various years); U.S.EPA, Justification of Appropriation
for Committee on Appropriations (various years).

Other

Solid Waste

Water Quality/
Construction €







Drinking Water
Air Quality-,

Actual

Projected

1985

1901

1983

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

11

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Figure 3

Percentage of Total Public Expenditures,
by Environmental Service, to Maintain
Current Levels of Environmental Quality

Water Quality (46%)

1981

$35 Billion

Drinking Water (35%)

Air Quality
Solid Waste (14%

Others (2%)

Quality (41%)

1987

$40 Billion

Quality (36%)

2000

$55 Billion

a

EPA, states and local governments

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Gnvomn,.,,.
Finances (various years; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pollution
Ahatpmpnt nnri Control Expenditures (various years); Bureau of the
Census Pollution Ahatement Cost and FYp^r.Hit,i>.A	(various

years); EPA Justification of Appropriation Estimates fnr firm mi 11 a:
nn Appropriations (various years).

Drinking Water (38%

Water

Air Quality
Solid Waste (15%)

Others (4%)

Drinking Water (40%)

Others (7%)
Air Quality (2%

Solid Waste (15%)

Water

12

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12

minimum national standards.

r>rInking Water. Compared to $12 billion in 1981, accounting
for only 35 percent of all environmental expenditures, drinking
water expenditures are expected to nearly double to $22 billion a
year by 2000 and to account for 40 percent of total environmental
expenditures. Much of this increase is attributable to capital
replacement and expansion? but beginning in 1993, the cost of water
purification will grow considerably.

Solid Waste. Garbage collection and the construction and
operation of solid waste management units (mostly landfills)
accounted for $5 billion to $6 billion a year (or 14 percent of
environmental expenditures by governments) in the 1980s. The low
priority of solid waste management relative to other local
environmental services is due, in part, to the shifting of
resources from regulation of solid to hazardous waste, with passage
of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA). EPA
was authorized in Subtitle D of RCRA to provide financial and
technical assistance to states and local governments to develop
solid waste management plans. However, federal funds for Subtitle
D were not appropriated after 1980.

Costs will escalate in the 1990s, so that by the year 2000,
solid waste spending will account for 15 percent of environmental
expenditures. It is likely that these estimates areconservative,
however oiven the extent of the solid waste disposal problem in
the United States. Approximately 450 000 tons oI waste are being
generated every day, 95 percent of which are being disposed of in
landfills that are rapidly reaching the end of their capacity «
Increased siting problems are already leading to much higher
disposal costs. It takes four to five years to implement plans for
a sanitarv landfill, and demand far exceeds supply of these
facilities! On average, disposal costs in 1987 were four times the
cost in 1977 having increased from $3 or $4 per ton in 1977 to $20
or more in 1987. Waste-to-energy facilities and incinerators are
increasingly favored by local governments for solid waste
management. They are more expensive to build and operate, however,
and face siting problems similar to those of landfills.

Air oualitv. Government costs to administer air quality
control programs matched expenditures for solid waste management
in 1981. However, by the year 2000, solid waste expenditures are

Needs giirvav Report to (jiQpgressi Assessment of Publicly-
ownArf	Y.ci

(February 1987).

13r W Beck and Associates, The Patign'g Public Wprftg; Report
on finHd Was**° M^mment. prepared for the National Council on

Public Works Improvement (May 1987).

13

-------
estimated to be four times those for air quality programs. In the
absence of renewed programs or changes in recent rates of
compliance, air quality spending will remain flat through the turn
of the century.

Environmental Expenditures by Level of Government

The future cost of maintaining current levels of environmental
quality (the shaded area shown on Figure 1) falls unevenly on
different levels of government, with municipalities expected to
underwrite a growing share in the future. While EPA expenditures
are expected to decline by a third between 1981 and 2000, local
spending could almost double (see Figure 4).

Local Governments. Annual environmental expenditure by local
governments is expected to nearly double by the turn of the century
— just to maintain today's level of environmental quality.
Assuming environmental standards are enforced, local capital
expenditures also have to double to compensate for scheduled
reductions in federal grants. Operating expenditures, paid entirely
by local governments, are also escalating due to the use of more
sophisticated chemical and energy-intensive treatment technologies.
In 1981, local governments spent about $26 billion or 76 percent
of the public sector share of environmental costs to comply with
federal mandates (see Figure 5). By 1987, these communities were
spending $33 billion a year and the local share had grown to more
than 82 percent. By the year 2000, localities are expected to
spend over $48 billion and bear more than 87 percent of the public
sector cost of environmental programs.

EPA. EPA expenditures to maintain current programs are
expected to decline by about one-third, from $6.3 billion a year
in 1981 to $4.3 billion a year in 2000. This drop — from 18 per
cent of national environmental expenditures in 1981 to less than
8 per cent in 2000 — is attributable largely to the phasing-out
of federal grants to build wastewater treatment plants. EPA's
Construction Grants program will gradually decline from today's
$2.4 billion authorization to zero in 1991. Federal grants to help
capitalize state wastewater treatment revolving loan funds will
peak at $2.4 billion in 1991 and decline to zero by 1995. There
is no comparable federal assistance program in solid waste, and
none anticipated within EPA or the Congress. EPA grants to states
to administer the Safe Drinking Water Act have declined by 27
percent in real terms, from a high of about $56 million in 1979 to
an estimated $41 million in 1989.

State Governments. The Bureau of the Census estimates that
state outlays to administer environmental programs, comply with
them where applicable, and provide assistance to localities for
their compliance, have grown slowly from just under $2 billion a
year in 1981 to about $2.1 billion in 1987. The Census data are

14

-------
Figure 4

Expenditures to Maintain Current Level of
Environmental Quality, by Sector, 1981-2000

60

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Year

Source: Apogee Research, from the following: Bureau of the Census, Pollution
Abatement Costs and Expenditures, various years; EPA, Justification of
Appropriation Estimates for Committee on Appropriations, various

years;

-------
Figure 5

Proportion of Environmental Outlays (Capital and 0 & M),
by Level of Government, to Maintain Current Levels of
Environmental Quality, 1981-2000 (in 1988 Dollars)

1981

18%)

Total spending =
$35 Billion

STATE (6%)

LOCAL

1987

(5%)

Total spending =
$40 Billion

LOCAL

2000

LOCAL

EPA (8%)

(5%)

Total estimated spending =
$55 Billion

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances

(various years); Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control
Expenditures (various years); Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Cost
and Expenditure Survey (various years); U.S.EPA, Justification of Appropriation
Estimates for Committee on Appropriations (various years).

16

-------
roughly comparable to the results of a recent survey of state
environmental expenditures that reported 1986 state outlays of $1.9
billion for air pollution, drinking water, hazardous waste, indoor
air pollution, marine and coastal initiatives, pesticides, solid
waste, and water quality. If current trends continue, state
environmental expenditures could reach $2.6 billion a year in 2000.
This represents a decrease in the share of total public sector
environmental expenditures accounted for by states, from 6 percent
in 1981 to 5 percent in 2000.

Over the period 1982 to 1986, EPA grants to states funded 47
percent of state air quality control programs, 38 percent of water
quality programs, and 54 percent of hazardous and solid waste
control programs.15 The remainder of state program budgets are
financed with fees, dedicated taxes, and general tax revenues. Of
particular note, however, is the fact that grants to states have
generally declined in real dollars as state program costs have
increased, the net result being a rather precipitous drop in the
proportion of state environmental budgets covered by EPA grants
over the period (see Table 2).

ADDITIONAL LOCAL POSTS OF NEW REGULATIONS

The costs to local governments associated with new regulations
are estimated to reach $5.3 billion by the year 2000 (see Figure
6).16 It was assumed that costs of municipal waste combustion air
standards, $2.5 billion, would be incurred in 1992, resulting in
a large peak in that year. It is more likely, however, that these
costs will be more evenly distributed over several years.

The $5.3 billion estimate is conservative, reflecting only a
portion of the costs of federal environmental regulations that will
take effect over the	five to ten years, none of the

environmental programs envisioned by Congress beyond 1987, and none
of the growing number of new state or local environmental mandates.
Additional regulations currently in place, but too new to project
costs for, could add to this increment. Of course, future statutes
and associated regulations could increase costs as well.

wSee Council of State Governments, Resource Guide to State
Environmental Management. Lexington, Kentucky (1988).

"congressional Budget Office, Environmental Federalism:
Allocating Responsibilities for Environmental Protection. Staff
Working Paper (September 1988).

16Estimates were prepared by the Environmental Law Institute
from data abstracted from Regulatory Impact Analyses prepared for
EPA's major pending rules.

17

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Table

2. State Budgets and EPA Grants to
and Hazardous Waste Programs

States

for Air, Water,



Total State
(in millions of

Budgets
1987 dollars)

EPA

Grants as
Of State

a Percentage
Budgets



Air

Water'



Hazardous
Wasteb

Air

Water"

Hazardous
Wasteb

1982

$210

$23



$64

49%

49%

76%

1983

213

274



76

45

38

66

1984

206

296



110

46

35

47

1985

202

326



146

48

34

41

1986

213

336



169

46

33

40

Source: Congressional Budget Office, Envj.r9rm$ntal Federalism;

Allocating Re^pgihiiities for Environmental Protection,
Staff Working Paper (September 1988).

a Includes water quality programs; some drinking water programs may be
excluded

b Includes both hazardous and solid waste programs

18

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Figure 6

Projected Local Government Expenditures to Maintain
Current Levels of Environmental Quality Plus Local
Expenditures to Comply With New Environmental Standards

>

\

/

$5.3 Billion

Additional local
spending to comply
with new
environmental
standards®

$15.8 Billion

Additional local
government spending
to maintain
current level of
environmental
quality

i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r
1981 1963 1965 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Fiscal Year

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances
(various years) and data prepared by the Environmental Law Institute
from Regulatory Impact Analyses
Includes spending for drinking water, water quality, solid waste, air and others.

19

-------
Water Quality

Local costs of new water quality regulations will average $2.6
billion per year in the 1990s (see Figure 7). Most of these new
costs are associated with building new or upgrading existing
facilities to provide secondary treatment as required in the Clean
Water Act. EPA estimated in 1986 that $76 billion would be required
to bring all municipal wastewater treatment facilities into
compliance with minimum national standards.17

Drinking Water

In the year 2000, expenditures for new drinking water
regulations are estimated to be only 2 percent of total
expenditures. The percentage is low because most water supply
expenditures relate to the quantity attributes (included in
estimates of future expenditures to maintain current programs) and
the program initiated in the 1986 Amendments to the Safe Drinking
Water Act (SDWA) has been slow getting started. The costs of new
drinking water regulations will be relatively low in the early
1990s, averaging $36 million a year. By 1994, however, costs are
projected to jump to $539 million as the capital costs associated
with these regulations start to be incurred. For the rest of the
century, annual costs will average $830 million.

Solid Waste

New regulations included in this study increase estimated
solid waste expenditures by a large percentage. In 1992, for
example, costs associated with new regulations are estimated at $3
billion, almost half of the $7 billion spent to maintain current
environmental standards. Thi-S large increase is due to capital
costs associated with municipal waste combustion air standards.
It is assumed that these costs, $2.5 billion, will all be incurred
in 1992. For the rest of the 1990s, costs of new regulations are
about $1.2 billion each year.

Local solid waste management is likely to be a focus of
Congress in the 1990s and the potential for new and more costly
regulations is large. Concerns about the hazardous constituents in
the residue from incineration of municipal solid waste have already
led Congress to consider regulation of municipal ash as a hazardous
waste. Potential costs for local governments would be very high.
Also, the outcome of EPA's investigation of regulatory alternatives
to control air emissions from municipal waste combustion will be
an important determinant of future costs to local governments for

,7198 6 Needs Survey Report to Congress; Assessment of Publicly-
Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities in the United States. USEPA
(February 1987).

20

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Figure 7

Local Government Expenditures to Maintain
Current Levels of Environmental Quality and Additional
Costs to Comply with New Environmental Standards, For
Each Environmental Service

DRINKING WATER

24
22
20
18
lfl
14
12
10
8
0
4
2
0

Actual

Projected

—,—,—,—		

Current Level of Spending

YEARS
WATER QUALITY

Actual

I
s

a

©
fl

— Current Level of Spending

im in

YEARS

22

= 16

SOLID WASTE

o

s

o

5
m

Actual

Projected





Current Level of Spending



1981 1883 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1993 1997 1999
YEARS

$0.5 Billion

Additional local spending to comply
with new environmental standards

$6.9 Billion

Additional local spending to
maintain current level of
environmental quality

$3.0 Billion

Additional local •pendlnf to comply
with n«w environmental cUndarda

$6.7 Billion

Additional local (pending to
maintain current level of
environmental quality

$1.4 Billion

Additional local spending to comply
with new environmental standards

$2.2 Billion

Additional local spending to
maintain current level of
environmental quality

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances

(various years) and data prepared by the Environmental Law Institute from
EPA Regulatory Impact Analyses.

21

-------
disposal of solid waste.

Total Local Year-2000 Expenditures bv Media

Adding the local costs of new regulations to the costs of
maintaining current levels of environmental quality shows a small
change in the proportion spent for each environmental program
between 1987 and 2000 (see Table 3). Water quality and drinking
water expenditures overshadow those for solid waste by about 2 to
1 over the period. The most important shift between 1987 and 2000
is the 5 percent increase in water quality expenditures from 35 to
40 percent of total expenditures and corresponding 3 percent
reduction in the percentage that is expended for drinking water,
from 45 to 42 percent. This change is due primarily to the
increased local costs of financing wastewater treatment facilities
as federal grants are phased out. This is reflected in the fact
that while local spending on water quality is increasing, total
public sector spending for water quality is estimated to decrease
by 5 percent between 1987 and 2000 (from 41 to 36 percent). While
spending for other programs is only $1.3 billion by the year 2000,
the percentage increase from 1987 is large due to costs imposed by
new regulations examined in this study (Underground Storage Tank
Standards, Asbestos in Schools and SARA Title III Requirements).

22

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Table 3. Summary of Local Government Environmental Expenditures by Service

(billions of $1988)

Program

1987 Percentage
of Total

2000* Percentage
of Total

Total Local
Spending

$32.6 100.0%	$53.7

100.0%

% Increase
1987-2000

Water Quality

$11.4

35.0%

$21.1

39.3%

85%

Drinking Water

14.8

45.4

22.2

41.4

50

Solid Waste

6.1

18.7

9.7

18.0

59

Others

0.3

0.9

0.7

1.3

133

327%

• costs of maintaining current levels of environmental quality plus costs
of new regulations.

,	tt e Bureau of the Census and data

source:	Environmental Law Institute from EPA Regulatory

Impact Analyses.

23

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CHAPTER III

IMPACT OF SPENDING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
ON CAPITAL MARXETS

This chapter examines the impact on capital markets of the
financing needs of local governments. The focus is on local
governments because of the dramatic increase in local demands for
capital for environmental services relative to other sectors and
due to the availability of local cost estimates for new
regulations. The capital markets view is an important one when
examining local costs because localities rely on municipal bonds
to finance environmental facilities. Increasing local demands for
capital signal proportional increases in demand for new bond
issues.

CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS

Capital formation by EPA, states, and local governments to
maintain current levels of environmental quality is expected to
fluctuate between $13 billion and $20 billion a year between 1987
and the year 2000 (see Figure 8). If recent trends continue, by the
year 2000 most of the demand for capital to maintain current
programs will be accounted for by local governments. Local demands
for capital are estimated to increase from $9.5 billion a year in
1987 to $16.5 billion a year in 2000 (see Figure 9). State demands
for capital are stable over the period and are relatively small,
averaging about $680 million per year.

Estimated local capital costs of new regulations add an
average of $3 billion a year to local capital needs associated with
current environmental regulations. As a result, localities are
estimated to have capital needs of nearly $19 billion a year by
2000 (see Figure 9).

Moreover, as operating expenses grow, local governments could
be forced to rely more heavily on borrowed funds to finance their
capital needs. Operating and maintenance expenditures are expected
to increase by 45 percent, from roughly $23 billion a year in 1987
to $35 billion a year in 2000 (see Figure 10). This rate of
increase in operating expenditures — 3.6 percent a year — is
almost three times the rate of population growth expected over this
period. New environmental programs will add another 10 to 20

24

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Figure 8

Total Capital Expenditures, by EPA,
States, and Local Governments, to Maintain
Current Levels of Environmental Quality and
Local Capital Spending to Comply with
New Regulations, 1981 - 2000

¦ Total Capital Expenditures + Local Capital Expenditures

to Maintain Current Levels to Comply With New Regulations
of Environmental Quality

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances

(various years); Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control
Expenditures (various years), Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement rn«t
and Expenditure Survey (various years); U.S.EPA. Justification of Appropriation
Estimates for Committee on Appropriations (various years).

25

-------
Figure 9

Local Capital Expenditures to Maintain Current
Levels of Environmental Quality and
Comply with New Regulations, 1981-2000

cn
u
«3

o

CO
CO
OJ

CO

a

o

QQ

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Fiscal Year

H Current	522 New

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances

(various years); Bureau of Economic Analysis. Pollution Abatement and Control
Expenditures (various years); Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Cost
and Expenditure Survey (various years); U.S.EPA. Justification of Appropriation
Fstlmates ft"- rnmmitteg on Appropriations (various years).

26

-------
Figure 10

Local Government Capital and Operating/Maintenance
Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of Environmental

Quality and Comply with New
Regulations, 1981 - 2000

w
s*
cti

O
Q

CO
CO
05

tn
d
o

m

~i i i i I i i i i i i	r	1—i V—i	t

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Fiscal Year

Capital

+ 0 & M

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Fin.n™.

(various years); Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control
Expenditures (various years): Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Cost
and Expenditure Survey (various years); U.S.EPA, Justification of Appropriation
Estimates for Committee on Appropriation* (various years)

27

-------
percent to these totals.

SUBSTITUTION OF LOCAL FOR FEDERAL CAPITAL

Aggregate costs tend to mask shifts in the projected share of
capital formation. While local demands for capital are estimated
to increase by 97 percent between 1987 and 2000, under current
policy EPA's capital grants for environmental services will end by
1995 (see Figure 11). To a large extent, the substitution of local
for federal capital is due to the phasing-out of EPA's construction
grants for wastewater treatment facilities. Capital grants are
expected to decline from $4.5 billion a year in 1981 to zero once
grants to capitalize state wastewater treatment revolving funds
expire in 1994.

FINANCING LOCAIrf fNVIRONMENTAk FACILITIES

Because of the variation in intergovernmental roles,
wastewater treatment facilities are currently financed differently
fhpr water supply or solid w&svg	fdcilitiGs*

S2" federal role in fencing wastewater treatment works is
significant compared to the other two areas.

Wastewater Treatment

. f in the 1980s, municipal bonds have substituted for
- , .®?	-I arants to finance wastewater treatment plants.

declining federal grants to	federal grants hava financed

^uoMHal? of ill ««teSatei facilities over the period 1980 to

bonds provided another $2.3 billion a year in

1984. Municipal bonds pro ^	^ qrant_to_bond dollars has

capital, on	fron 2.93 in 1980 to 0.56 in 1988 (see Table

failen dramatically, from ^ivata loanSi retained earnings, and

private eq^it^ constituted the remaining sources of wastewater
capital.

-4. fnr wastewater treatment will be near zero by
Federal support for wastew« program „ by tar the larges£

1994. EPA''s constro	wastewater treatment plants — will

source of federal aw

28

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Figure 11

EPA Capital Expenditures to Maintain Current
Levels of Environmental Quality Compared with
Local Capital to Maintain Current Levels of
Environmental Quality and Comply with New
Regulations, 1981 - 2000

I I I	1	1 i 		—i i i i	1	-j—

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Fiscal Year

¦¦ EPA capital	E3 Local capital

Source: Apogee Research from: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances

(various years); Bureau of Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control
Expenditures (various years); Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Cost
and Expenditure Survey (various years); U.S.EPA, Justification of Appropriation
Estimates for Committee on Appropriations (various years).

29

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Table 4 Estimated Sources of Capital Used to Finance Municipal
Wastewater Treatment Works (current dollars)

Year	Federal	Municipal	Ratio of

Grants*	Bonds	Grants/Bonds

1980

$4,720

$1,610

2.93

1981

4,293

1,620

2.65

1982

4,113

2,870

1.43

1983

3,416

2,410

1.42

1984

2,969

3,150

0.94

1985

2,900

7,007

0.41

1986

3,113

6,823

0.45

1987

2,920

4,517

0.65

1988

2,514

4,498

0.56

Average

$3,440

$3,834

0.90

Sources:—Published and unpublished data supplied by the Bureau of
the Census and The Public Securities Association

Includes EPA Construction Grants, Farmers Home Administration
Sewer Grants; The Department of Housing and Urban
Development's Community Development Block Grants (sewer uses) ;
Economic Development Administration Grants (sewer uses).

30

-------
be eliminated after 1991.18 Beginning in 1989, federal grants will
help capitalize state revolving loan funds (SRFs) in place of
construction grants, but they will expire in 1994. The federal role
in financing local wastewater treatment plants will be reduced to
a handful of small, targeted programs. in many states, the SRF
programs are not expected to meet financing needs.19 if the
difference between wastewater construction needs and funds that
might reasonably be expected as grants or loans through current
intergovernmental aid programs is financed from strictly local
sources, some 20 states will face a combined financing burden of
nearly $57 billion.

Moreover, municipalities in many of these states and others
face rapidly escalating operating expenses, tending to put upward
pressure on user fees which, on the margin, will make capital
financing more difficult. In 1960, for example, the local
operating cost per person served by central sewer systems was
$17.67 a year. At the beginning of EPA's Construction Grants
program in 1972, local operating costs per person served were
$19.35 a year. By 1984, local operating costs had skyrocketed to
$41.61 per person. Per-capita operating costs should continue to
increase as more sophisticated energy and chemical-intensive
treatment processes come on line, especially in small communities
with limited economies of scale. Higher operating expenses can
reduce the ability of local governments to issue debt for capital
investments, particularly in cities where the average annual income
is low.

Water SuppIv

While water supply capital needs ($4 to $5 billion a year in
the 1980s) are equivalent to those of the nation's wastewater
treatment plants, water systems have almost no federal assistance.
Traditionally, municipal systems have financed capital needs
through a combination of tax exempt municipal bonds (about 60
percent of all capital)» retained earnings (20 to 30 percent);

18Other federal aid programs that can be used for local
wastewater treatment works include the Farmers Home
Administration's water and sewer grants and loans and the Economic
Development Administration's grants to under-developed regions.

19Some states such as New York are planning to meet the
shortfall with highly leveraged SRFs. That is, the original
capitalization will be used to secure bonds, raising up to five
times the amount available for loans in the original capitalization
grants.

20For details, see Apogee Research, Inc. The Nation's Piihi
Works; Rennrt on Wastewater Management, prepared for the National
Council on Public Works Improvement (May 1987).

31

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state and federal grants (5 to 10 percent)? and other sources such
as private loans, special tax assessments, and private equity (5
to 10 percent). Larger water systems tend to rely more heavily on
bonds than do small ones, which generally rely on private bank
loans to finance their capital needs.

Solid Waste Management

There is no federal aid for local solid waste management.
Local governments spend about $700 million a year for capital
improvements. The literature is far less insightful on the
financing of solid waste facilities than on the other two municipal
services. The few reports that do address the issue agree that
municipal bonds provide the majority of all investment capital for
publicly-owned waste management facilities. Like water and
wastewater plants, however, some publicly-owned facilities finance
capital improvements with retained earnings, private bank loans,
and private equity.

IMPACT ON fftpTTAT, FORMATION

The impact of capital demands for environmental programs on
local capital formation can be examined from two perspectives: the
ability of the market to respond to capital demands, and the
ability of local governments to raise capital. Assuming that the
market will respond if the price of capital can be met, the key
issue is municipal ability to support capital formation.

Whereas private companies are often able to pass along the
costs of capital to consumers in the price of goods and services
they provide, local governments are more limited in their ability
to meet capital needs. Often, elected officials face political
difficulties in raising taxes or fees, or constraints on their
authority to raise revenues imposed by statutes, regulations, or
state constitutions. In other cases, local resources may be
insufficient to support large amounts of debt. This is particularly
true for small municipalities that face relatively high fixed costs
of issuing bonds, constrained by limited revenue bases and no
economies of scale. If capital-intensive facilities are forced on
these and other cities, the cost of increased levels of capital
formation could crowd out other investments.

can the capital Markets Rggppnfl?

If the gap between current capital formation and future
capital requirements for environmental programs were to be financed
entirely with new bonds, municipalities would have to issue roughly
twice as much environmental debt as they currently do. Compared

21See, R.W. Beck and Associates, Report on Solid Waste.

32

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to the volume of tax-exempt bonds issued to finance water, sewer
and solid waste projects so far in the 1980s — from $4.5 to $9
billion a year — this change in volume would not be unusual. In
water supply, for example, meeting the capital needs of the 1986
Safe Drinking Water Act will require an estimated $0.5 billion to
$1.0 billion a year in new capital financing over the period 1994
to 2000. This would represent a 25 to 35 percent increase over the
current volume of water supply bonds — fluctuations well within
the range in volume for such bonds between 1977 and 1985.

In addition, debt issued for environmental purposes is a small
percentage of total debt issued by state and local governments (see
Table 5). Debt issued for water and sewer projects was only 14
percent of total state and local debt in 1960 and 1970 and declined
to 9 percent of the total by 1987.

Limitations on Municipal Capital Financing

The overall volume of bonds necessary to meet new capital
requirements is not unmanageable from the perspective of market
expansion. However, large capital demands associated with
environmental services often cause large peaks in capital needs
that can crowd out other investments. For example, San Diego has
total outstanding debt of about $1.3 billion but is faced with a
cost of $800 million for an ocean outfall (conveyance of treated
wastewater to the ocean). If financed by long term debt, the cost
of the conveyance would represent a 61 percent increase in the
city's total outstanding debt. The large capital demands for this
project will limit the amount of debt the city can issue for other

purposes.

In addition, the ability of some cities, especially small
ones, to issue new debt is limited and most of the nation's
environmental systems are in small communities. Nearly 90 percent
of all community water systems serve fewer than 3,300 residents;
88 percent of all wastewater treatment systems handle less than 1
million gallons per day; and most of the solid waste landfills in
the nation serve communities under 10,000.

Because they are not well known, small communities have
limited access to financial markets, forcing them to seek generally
higher-cost commercial loans to finance capital expansion. When
they are able to issue bonds publicly, small denominations often
bear a high cost of capital for two reasons: because the fixed
costs (e.g., legal fees and underwriters fees) are more burdensome
when spread over a small base, and because the credit markets

22For details, see Apogee Research, Inc. and Wade Miller
Associates, Inc., pr»h™a ln Financing and Managing Smaller p^H7
Works prepared for the National Council on Public Works

Improvement (September 10, 1987).

33

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Table 5. Water/Sewer Debt as Percentage of Total State and Local
Debt (billions of 1988 dollars)

Water/Sewer

Water/Sewer	Total State &	as Percent

Year	Debt	Local Debt	of Total

I960
1970
1980
1987

$4.57
8.14
4.49
9.17

$31.67
59.02
60.91
105.83

14%
14
7
9

Source: Apogee Research from data compiled by the Public Securities
Association

34

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generally demand a premium to compensate the risks of lending money
to little-Known communities with a less certain ability to repay
principal and interest.

The EPA recently completed a study that examines the ability
of different sized cities to raise capital for environmental
programs through the bond market. If the increases in debt
service attributable to either the capital demands of all new
drinking water regulations or new water quality regulations were
limited to 1 percent of gross household income (about a doubling
in current user fees), EPA estimates that 26 percent of all cities
under 2 500 persons (nearly 7,000 cities and towns) could have
trouble'issuing revenue bonds. Fewer than 10 percent of cities
with populations between 2,500 and 250,000 would have similar
problems Eleven percent of cities with populations above 250,000
could have trouble issuing new revenue-backed debt.

Even if municipalities were willing to offset user fees with
oeneral revenues and their full taxing powers were brought to bear
on the issuance of general obligation bonds to support new
environmental initiatives, most small cities would be no better
off In contrast, medium and larger cities would benefit
sianificantlv. While about 21 percent of all small cities would
Still face difficulties issuing new bonds, the proportion of medium
and large cities expected to have trouble in the capital markets
would decline to 3 percent and 0 percent, respectively.

But these calculations account for only the capital demands
imposed by nf- ~„.,l,tlons. The ability of many cities (regardless
of size) to support new bonds to cover tPtal Capital	by the

vear 2000 — capital replacement plus the demands of new programs -
- worsens the outlook presented above.

23EPA, Municipal Sector Study (September 1988).

35

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CHAPTER IV

IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SPENDING ON HOUSEHOLDS

As municipalities are the primary providers of environmental
services, local government responses to increasing costs of these
services' will determine, to a large extent, the impact on
households. There are three ways local governments may respond (see
Figure 12). Local budgets could accommodate increased demand for
resources by increasing own-source revenues through (1)higher user
charqes or taxes (2)increasing the efficiency of current programs,
or (3)shifts to environmental services from spending in other
budqet areas. Second, local governments could seek alternative
sources of finance, either through federal and state assistance or
bv involving private companies in finance and provision of
environmental services. Finally, local governments may choose not
to accommodate the higher costs of environmental services, which
could lead to noncompliance or reduced quality or quantity of

service.

For this report, it was assumed that local governments would
seek to increase own-source revenues. To the extent that local
governments can exercise other options, particularly private
involvement in service provision, household costs may be reduced
Estimates of combined capital and operating cost savings associated
with private provision of environmental services compared to public
provision range from 5 to 40 percent.

Meetina the increasing costs of environmental services with

local revenues means that households and businesses pay for

regulations financed at the municipal level through increased user

charaes increased general taxes, or reduced levels of services in
cnarges, in	programs. Household effects of environmental

2n«^5g	iSSilrtS assuming all capital facilities are

financed with long-term bonds

assumptions Jg-	^dTo operatinf and ^intena^

outlays each^eW' The result is divided by the number of
°utlay8 'Bac y . t provide an estimate of household resources
households s	environmental services. Recalculating to take

nSid to? industrial and commercial facilities, the
estimates reflact^ increases in direct costs for average

24According to a recent report by a prominent investment
banking firm, overall savings attributable to a properly structured
privatization transaction (prior to tax reform) may reduce user
fees by 15 to 40 percent, compared to conventional Construction
Grants funding. See Dean, Witter, Reynolds, Inc., Privatizatlpp«
A Financing Alternative for State and Local Governments (October

1986)

36

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Figure 12

Local Government Responses to Increasing
Costs of Environmental Protection

Increasing Local Costs c f
Environmental Protectior

Local Budget s
I Accommodate
Increased
Demand for
Resources

Local Resource,
Stay Level

Reduce Spending In\
Other Budget Areas

M Increased Efficiency I

Local Resources
Increase

Higher User Charges

Search for
Non-Local
Sources of
Finance

Federal & State
Assistance

Private Involvement

Local Budgets
Do Not

Accommodate
New Demand
for Resources

Reduce Quantity
or Quality of
Service

Higher Taxes

More Debt

37

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households.25

To the degree that costs to private companies are passed on
to consumers in the form of increased prices for goods anS
services, household costs will increase. While it is not possible
to forecast these effects exactly, for most companies environmSltaf
compliance costs constitute only a small portion of their
cost of production, so resulting price increases will not hav-t
significant effect on consumption of a product or service.

HOUSEHOLD COSTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS26

If current trends continue, the average household will snenH
$647 a year by the year 2000 for environmental services includi™
drinking water, wastewater treatment, and solid waste manaaemen?
(see Table 6). This represents 54 percent more than the averZal
household payment for such services in 1987. The laraest incr»in«^
$599 dollars a year in 2000 - is attributable to "Sv
maintaining the current level of environmental and servirl
standards. The average annual cost of complyina with
regulations is estimated to be $48.	ew

Household Payments bv City Size To Maintain Purred
Environmental Quality	,rr Tl*	QL

Implementing current environmental programs will have more
profound effects for households in smaller cities than in laroer
ones. Small cities face limited economies of scale in the
provision of environmental services and generally higher costs of
capital. These two effects combined tend to drive up the price of
environmental protection for small cities.

As a result, households in the smallest cities are expected
to pay substantially more than those in large and medium-sized
cities through the turn of the century. Household costs are
expected to increase by about 88 percent, from $670 in 1987 to
$1,263 in 2000 in the smallest cities (less than 500 population!
Household payments to maintain current programs in medium-sized
cities (populations from 50,000 to 100,000) will increase bv 38
percent, on average — from $373 in 1987 to $515 in 2000
Household costs in large cities (populations in excess of 500 oooi
will increase by 36 percent, from $393 in 1987 to $533 in 2000

25See Appendix 3 to this report for an explanation of
differences in methodology between this report and the Municipal
Sector Study.

26 Cities were divided into the following population-size
categories: less than 500; 500-2500; 2500—10,000; 10,000-50,000*
50,000-100,000; 100,000-250,000; 250,000-500,000; more than
500,000.

38

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Table 6 Average Annual Household Payments for Environmental services

for a Sample of 8,032 Cities, Towns, and Townships (1988 dollars)

City
Size

Average
payments
in 1987

Additional
payments to
maintain
current levels
of environmental
quality in
2000

500 or
less

500-
2,500

2,500-
10,000

10,000-
50,000

50,000-
100,000

100,000-
250,000

250,000-
500,000

500,000
or more

Population

Weighted

Average

$670
473
433
444
373
291
335
393

9419

$593
223
143
197
142
111
126
140

$180

Additional
payments to
comply with
new

environmental
and service
standards
in 2000

Total

estimated

household

payments for

environmental

protection

in 2000

$317

67

29

24

24

34

68

93

$48

$1,580
763
605
665
539
436
529
626

$647

Source:

Apogee Research, from U.S. Bureau of Census, 1986 Survey of
Community Water Systems, and data compiled by the Environmental
Law Institute from EPA Regulatory Impact Analyses.

39

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Household Payments for New Regulations

Added to the large increases in household costs of current
programs are the additional costs of new regulations. Households
in cities with populations below 500 will pay an additional $317
a year to comply with new regulations in 2000; for the largest
cities new regulations will cost the average household $93 more
each year by 2000. Households in medium-sized cities, with
populations of 10,000 to 50,000 and 50,000 to 100,000, are faced
with additional costs of just $24 each year.

Household Payments fEnvironmental Programs Compared to Income

The difference in costs between households based on city size
is even more dramatic when examined as a percentage of household
income (see Table 7). For the smallest cities with lower
household income and higher costs per household, the cost of
environmental protection as a percentage of household income will
increase from 2.8 percent in 1987 to 5.6 percent in 2000. For
medium-sized cities the percentage is ejected to change slightly
over the period 1987 to 2000, from 1.0 to 1.2 percent, and in large
cities, to change from 1.1 to 1.5 percent.

Estimates of costs as a percentage of household income may be
Estimat	t the extent that companies pass through

conservative because, x.o me

environmental costs to consumers, household income will be reduced.
As a result, the costs of environmental protection as a percentage
of household income could be higher.

Household p^yinp-nts hv Program

HnilsohnTrf costs of each environmental program, including those

to maintain levels of eiwironmental quality and to comply with new

to maintain ie	2000, differ by city size category (see

Tabled "Households in smaller cities will pay comparatively more
Table 8). Househ	medium-sized cities. Pending wastewater

than in both	additional future costs of maintaining

improvements along with the^aatai	guality will	cost	the	averag|

current levels of ^ ^ lesg abQUt $259 a year by 2000^ when
household in citie®	re assumed to be on-line. Drinking water

all regulatory progr another $366 a year and solid waste
regulations wifjv g .g This a
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Table 7. Cost of Environmental Protection Per Household As Percentage of
Household Income, By City Size (1988 Dollars)

1987

2000

City
Size

Average	Average Cost as a

Household	Household Percentage

Cost of	Income of House-
Environ- hold
mental Income
Programs

Average	Average Cost as a

Household	Household Percentage

Cost of	Income of House-
Environ- hold

mental
Programs8

Income

500 or
less

500-
2,500

2,500-
10,000

10,000-
50,000

$670

473

433

444

50,000-

100,000 373

100,000-
250,000 291

250,000-
500,000 335

Over

500,000 393

Weighted
Average 419

$24,277
26,361
30,546
31,685
37,189
33,769
31,943
34,756
31,617

2.8%

1.8

1.4

1.4

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.3

$1,580 $28,357
30,792

763
605
665
539
436
529
626
647

35,680
37,010
43,440
39,445
37,312
40,597
36,931

5.6%

2.5

1.7

1.8

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.8

¦ includes costs of maintaining. current Revels of environmental quality
plus costs of complying with	9

0aeo)
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Table 8. Increase in Annual Household User Charges in 2000 to Maintain

Existing Levels of Environmental Quality and to Comply with New
Regulations (in 1988 Dollars)

Municipality Average	Additional Fees By Program

Size	Payments 		jp tfre Year 2Q0Q	

Category	in	Wastewater Drinking Solid Other Total

1987" Treatment Water	Waste	Additional

	Fees	

Less than	$25g	$366	$218	$67 $910

500"	174	59	43	14	290

2,500	473

2'500~	85	59	19	9	172

10,000	433

10,000-	71	19	7	221

50,000	444	J-*4*

50,000-	64	20	5	166

100,000	373

100,000-	63	14	5	145

250,000	291

250,000-	43	33	4	ig4

500,000	335

0ver 146 42 40 5 233
500,000	393	14t>		

a

See Appendix 4 for average 1987 payments by media.

Source: Apogee Research from U.S. Bureau of the Census 1986

Community Water Systems, and data compiled by the Enviro«^l^-
Law institute from EPA Regulatory Impact Analyses.	1

42

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comparably much less than the smallest ones. Wastewater treatment
and solid waste show decreasing economies of scale with the result
that households in large cities will pay more for these services
than those in medium-sized cities. However, household costs are
much less than in the smallest cities. Households in large cities
will pay 56 percent of the amount paid for wastewater treatment in
small cities and 18 percent of that paid for solid waste. As
drinking water shows increasing economies of scale, households in
large cities will only pay 11 percent of household costs in small
cities. This is in addition to a baseline of $393, that is only 59
percent of the 1987 cost for households in small cities.

prtnUnq Water. The largest cost to households in small cities
in the year 2000 is estimated to be for drinking water programs.
About 95 percent of the total estimated costs of drinking water-
programs in 2000 is associated with current Safe Drinking Water Act
programs and the provision of adequate quantities of water.

Wat-.pr Quality. Wastewater treatment is the highest cost
service for households in most city sizes. Costs are estimated to
be particularly high for households in the smallest cities, where
substantial investments are necessary to bring wastewater treatment
facilities into compliance with minimum national standards.

snUd waste. Household expenditures for solid waste show a
trend similar to that for the other environmental services, with
households in smallest cities expected to pay more than 5 times the
amount paid by households in larger cities. For the larger size
categories, estimated household costs of solid waste programs show
reverse economies of scale. This is due to the amount of quality
and quantity-related costs included ^ in total solid waste
expenditures. There are limited economies of scale in providing
greater quantities of solid waste services. Costs of maintaining
existing levels of environmental quality, that are mostly quantity-
related, constitute the majority of total costs in cities larger
than 2,500. Thus, for the most part, larger cities do not benefit
from economies of scale normally associated with environmental
service provision as compared to medium—sized cities.

43

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CHAPTER V
CONCLUSIONS

The growing costs of environmental protection suggest a
reexamination of the way in which the nation finances and pays for
investments in environmental protection. Increasing costs of
onvironmental programs to governments at all levels, from $40
billioITa year in 1987 to $55 billion in 2000 to maintain current
Standards challenge their ability to finance future environmental
needs New regulations will only increase demands, adding $5.3
billion a year in municipal expenditures alone by the year 2000.

Growing demand for municipal resources will require tradeoffs
between financing environmental mandates and balancing limited
local budgets. Local governments with responsibilities for
rtrHniHna water, wastewater, and solid waste management services
face an increase from 76 percent of the public sector's bill to
comDlv with federal environmental mandates in 1987 to 87 percent
bv 2000 This increase will mean that real annual environmental
outlays by all local governments will nearly double by the turn of
the century.

impacts on tfTjiNTCipftt-I'riES.—ffAPITAL MftPPET?»—ftffP flQ,V?EHQI'P$

The relative effects on municipal budgets of spending for
onvli»e. " regardless of their nature - should focus
on small to medium-sized localities.

tal markets can be expected to meet expanded demands

fleet risk and supply-demand interactions, the key
once prices reflect risJ	££ Capital markets is the ability

i"u® ®^"ine9„ts to support capital formation. Increasing
of local governm	upward pressure on interest rates, which

demand for capital can put upwa ^ Qf environlnental COBlpiiance.

in turn,	t the income or industrial base to finance these

Communities without	JJ This is particularly true for small

expenses could face ha ^ ^ &re by relatively high fixed costs

of "issuing V^ds, constrained by limited revenue bases, and without
the benefits of economies of scale.

Tf rurrent trends continue, households in the smallest cities
If current zx	substantially more for environmental

will be e*Pect®^0g. in large and medium-sized cities, with
programs than tno	doubling in the smallest cities by the

household costs mor	household income, households in the

year 2000. As a percem.»y«

44

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smallest cities will be expected to pay 5.6 percent of household
income on environmental programs while households in large and
medium-sized cities will pay 1.5 and 1.2 percent, respectively.

POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

Given the strong legislative and popular support for a rioa«a
environment, there will be pressure for strict*; ® Cleaner
standards in the future. One way to meet the challenge of fiSSSiJ1
environmental mandates is to simply charge more and «««»,!	?g

provide adequate levels of enviro^entalTe^icesto
governments could take steps to reduce the cost of environmental

A third alternative —encouraging greater involvement of th*
private sector in the provision of environmental services -
reduce pressure on local budgets, with the potential to
such services in the most efficient manner. Greater £££?*
involvement can increase public resources available J
environmental protection in at least two ways. First < *r
equity can free municipal resources for other investments'
even without private financing, properly designed and* execufc^
partnerships can provide improved environmental services «f J!
lowest possible cost to the public. Improvements in effieion™
over provision of service, by strictly public agencies, can lo£«
public costs of compliance, w^ch in turn, frees municipal
resources for other investments." Areas for fed*»r-*i	p f

action include investigating the use of tax policy to dSHo?
partnerships; reformulating federal environmental regulation?'*
reduce bias against public-private partnerships; and workinoJiX
states to reduce their barriers to private involvement such
state restrictions on interstate shipping of solid waste'.

Finally, financial management assistance could be provide *
small and medium-sized cities to promote implementation
innovative solutions to financing environmental programs T^.f
decision makers and private vendors of environmental services
need better information to make informed investments.

Inc.,	Report on Public Private

See Apogee Resear , Qervlcea. Policy ISSUES and Options,

rm-tirrrnir«	in ,i frntrrti-	^

prepared for ***—6 Management Division (September 26, 1988).
Comptroller, Kesouj.

45

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Appendix 1. List of Environmental Regulations Applicable to Local Governments
But Not Included in the Cost Estimates

Regulations

Status

A.	Drinking Water

Well-head protection Plan
Pesticides in Groundwater
Disinfection By-products

B.	Wastewater Treatment
National Estuary Program

Wetlands Protection Program - 404(c) permits
Nonpoint Source Regulations

Guidance/Mgmt. Plans
Section 304(1) - Toxics in Water Bodies

C.	Solid Waste Disposal

National Contingency Plan - Superfund Program
Low-Level Radiation Waste Standards
Toxicity Characteristics of Solid and
Hazardous Wastes

In Development
In Development
In Development

In Development
Promulgated
In Development

In Development

In Development
In Development
In Development

D. Miscellaneous Regulations

Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles
Gasoline Marketing
Diesel Fuel Standards

Revisions to National Ambient Air Quality

Standards (Ozone, Carbon Monoxide,
Particulate Matter, Nitrogen Oxides,
Sulfur Oxides)

Asbestos in Public Buildings

Promulgated
In Development
In Development
In Development

May Be
Required

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Appendix 2. Tables of Data

FIGURE 1. PROJECTED EPA, STATE, AND LOCAL

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TO MAINTAIN
EXISTING LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
QUALITY COMPARED TO CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL
EXPENDITURES (MILLIONS OF $1988)

vfar	TOTAL SPENDING TO MAINTAIN

X	EXPENDI- EXISTING LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL

TURES QUALITY IN ADDITION TO EXISTING
EXPENDITURES (1987)

1981

34,608

0

1982

33,293

0

1983

34,316

0

1984

34,765

0

1985

36,958

0

1986

39,312

0

1987

39,749

0

1988

41,160

1,411

1989

45,508

5,759

1990

46,478

6,729

1991

50,418

10,669

1992

50,240

10,491

1993

50,115

10,367

1994

49,956

10,207

1995

49,814

10,065

1996

50,957

11,208

1997

52,078

12,329

1998

53,178

13,429

1999

54,258

14,509

2000

55,320

15,571

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FIGURE 2. EPH, STATE, RND LOCRL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TO MRINTRIN

CURRENT LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, BY MEDIA, 1981-2000

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FIGURE 4. PROPORTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLRYS (CRPITRL HNO 0&M>, BY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT, TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, 1981, 1907, AND 2000 
-------
Figure 5.

PROPORTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLAYS , BY LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT, TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, 1981, 1987, AND 2000 
-------
Figure 6.

PROJECTED LOCAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT LEVEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND
COMPLY WITH NEW ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS
(IN MILLIONS OF 1988 DOLLARS)

CURRENT LEVEL ADDITIONAL SPENDING	ADDITIONAL SPENDING

OF LOCAL	TO MAINTAIN CURRENT	TO COMPLY WITH

YEAR SPENDING ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY	NEW STANDARDS

1981	26,340

1982	25,680

1983	27,677

1984	28,399

1985	30,029

1986	32,036

1987	32,581

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996	44,810

1997	45,740

1998

1999

2000	48,424

0	0

0	O

0	0

0	0

0	0

0	0

0	0

34\068 1,487	2,362

37 933 5,352	2,986

38,973 6,392	3,411

42,520 9'939	3,874

42,857 10,276	6,985

43,223 10,642	4,111

43 542 10,961	4,665

43,859 11,278	4,815

12,229	4,970

13,159	5,750

46!652 14,071	5,542

47 546 14,965	6,677

15,843	5,297

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Figure 7.

LOCRL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TO MR1NTRIN CURRENT LEVELS OF ENV1COMMENTRL QUHLITY HNO TO COMPLY WITH
NEW ENUIRONMENTRL STRNORROS, BY MEOIR

DRINKING WRTER





WRTER

QURL1TY





SOLID

URSTE







CURRENT

NEW





CURRENT

NEM





CURRENT

NEM



YE OR

PROGRHMS

PROGRRMS

TOTAL

YERR

PROGRRMS

PROGRRMS

TOTRL

YERR

PROGRRMS

PROGRRMS

TOTRL



<1988 *MM)

<1988 ~NM>

<1988 *MM>



<1988 *MM>

<1988 *MM>

<1988 «MM>



<1988 *MM>

<1988 *MM>

<1988 »MM>

1901

12,073

0

12,073

1981

9, 086

O

9086

1981

4948

O

4948

1982

12,087

0

12,087

1982

8,309

O

8309

1982

5043

0

5043

1963

12,547

O

12,547

1983

9,693

O

9693

1983

5163

O

5163

1984

12,533

0

12,533

1984

lO,169

O

10169

1984

5384

O

5384

1985

13,625

O

13,625

1985

lO,295

O

10295

1985

5771

O

5771

1906

14,873

0

14,873

1986

10,967

O

10967

1986

5858

O

5858

1987

14,816

O

14,816

1987

11,376

O

11376

1987

6050

O

6050

1988

15,348

0

15,348

1988

12,148

2052

14200

1988

6233

O

6233

1989

15,879

1

15,880

1989

15,288

2130

1741B

1989

6426

O

6426

1990

16,411

24

16,434

1990

15,605

2266

17871

1990

6617

O

6617

1991

16,942

26

16,968

1991

18,433

2305

20738

1991

6804

357

7161

1992

17,474

35

17,509

1992

18,054

2506

20560

1992

6987

3194

10101

1993

18,005

94

18,lOO

1993

17,710

2499

20209

1993

7166

1035

02O1

1994

18,537

539

19,076

1994

17,322

2S74

19896

1994

7340

1069

84 lO

1995

19,068

580

19,648

1995

16,938

2650

19588

1995

7510

1104

8614

1996

19,600

625

20,225

1996

17,192

2725

19917

1996

7675

1138

8813

1997

20,131

1,296

21,427

1997

17,429

2800

20229

1997

7836

1172

9009

1998

20,663

951

21,614

1998

17,651

2875

20526

1998

7994

1234

9228

1999

21,194

1,030

22,225

1999

17.0S8

2951

208O9

1999

8150

1297

9447

2000

21,726

497

22,223

2000

18,052

3026

21078

2000

8302

1361

9663

-------
YEAR

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Figure 8.

TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY EPA,

STATES, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS,

TO MAINTAIN CURRENT LEVELS OF

ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND

LOCAL CAPITAL SPENDING TO

COMPLY WITH NEW REGULATIONS, 1981-2000

(IN MILLIONS OF 1988 DOLLARS)

Total Capital	Local Capital

Expenditures to Maintain	Costs to Comply

Current Levels of	With New

Environmental Quality	Regulations

13,274

11,334

11,399

11,010

12,205

13,468

12,935

13,267

16,433

16,718

19,749

18,640

17,574

16,550

15,567

15,892

16,217

16,541

16,865

17,188

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2,199

2,881

2,994

3,313

5,892

2,177

2,617

2,610

2,597

3,209

2,774

3,707

2,110

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Figure 9.

LOCAL CBPITHL EXPENDITURES
TO MAINTAIN CURRENT LEVELS OF
ENVIRONMENTAL OUALITY AND TO
COMPLY WITH NEW REGULATIONS,
1981 - 2000 (Millions oF *1988)

CURRENT	NEW TOTAL

YEAR	CAPITAL	CAPITAL CAPITOL

EXPENDITURES	COSTS

1981

8374

0

8374

1982

6877

O

6877

1983

7883

O

7883

1984

7853

0

7853

1985

8650

0

8650

1986

9810

0

98 lO

1987

9547

0

9547

1988

10262

2199

12461

1989

13379

2881

16260

1990

13689

2994

16683

1991

16517

3313

19830

1992

16112

5892

22004

1993

15728

2177

17905

1994

15366

2617

17983

1995

15024

2610

17634

1996

15337

2597

17934

1997

15650

3209

18859

1998

15962

2774

18736

1999

16275

3707

19982

2000

16587

2110

106'37

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Figure 10.

LOCRL GOVERNMENT CRPITRL RNO
OS.M EXPENDITURES TO
MHINTHIN CURRENT LEVELS OF
ENVIRONMENT!*. QUHLITY
RNO TO COMPLY WITH
NEW REGULATIONS
(MILLIONS OF $1388)

YEAR

LOCRL

LOCRL

LOCRL



Capital

O&M

Total

1981

8,374

17,966

26,340

1982

6,877

18,803

25,680

1983

7,883

19,794

27,677

1984

7,853

20,546

28,399

1985

8,650

21,379

30,029

1986

9,BIO

22,225

32,036

1987

9,547

23,034

32,581

1988

12,461

23,969

36,430

1989

16,260

24,659

40,919

1990

16,683

25,700

42,384

1991

19,830

26,564

46,394

1992

22,004

27,838

49,842

1993

17,905

29,429

47,334

1994

17,983

30,224

48,207

1995

17,634

31,040

48,674

1996

17,934

31,846

49,781

1997

18,859

32,631

51,490

1998

18,736

33,459

52,195

1999

19,982

34,242

54,223

2000

10,697

35,O17

53,714

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Figure 11.

EPfl CRPITRL OUTLBYS TO MRINTR1N
CURRENT LEVELS OF ENVIRONMENTRL QUHLITY
COHPRRED WITH LOCRL CRPITRL
SPENDING TO MRINTRIN CURRENT LEVELS OF
OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUHLITY AND COMPLY WITH
NEW REGULATIONS, 1901 - 2000
tMlLLlONS OF *1988)



EPR

LOCAL

YERR

CRPITRL

CRPITRL



OUTLRYS

OUTLRYS

1981

4,511

8,374

1982

4,071

6,877

1983

3.2SO

7,883

1984

2,848

7,853

1985

3, 126

8,650

1986

3,258

9,810

1987

2,967

9,547

1988

2,566

12,461

1989

2,362

16,260

1990

2,325

16,683

1991

2,288

19,829

1992

1,689

22,004

1993

1, 108

17,905

1994

545

17,983

1995

O

17,635

1996

O

17,934

1997

O

18,859

1998

O

18,736

1999

O

19,902

2000

o

10,696

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Appendix 3. Differences in Methodology and Content Between the
Municipal Sector Study and This Report

1. The Municipal Sector Study (MSS) estimates local costs
associated with new regulations assuming that costs of existing
environmental regulations remain constant over the period studied,
1988 to 1996. This report (Cost Report) incorporates these data
and, in addition, provides data on expenditures pursuant to current
regulations. For the Cost Report, local expenditures pursuant to
existing regulations are provided for 1981 to 1986 and projected
to the year 2 000 to estimate local costs of existing regulations.
Tables indicating costs to municipalities and households in year
2000 include both costs of maintaining current programs and costs
of new regulations.

? Th« final vears of cost projection differ for the two studies.
L\hVMq
-------
Figure 13

Q

i—?

o
a:

w ^

gg
S3

0£
U

a.

CO
U

2
Cd

K

0
Q

CO
ao

01

COMPARISON OF THE OFFICE OF DRINKING WATER
SURVEYS AND THE MUNICIPAL SECTOR STUDY SURVEY
PER HOUSEHOLD REVENUE ESTIMATES

<600

500-2600 2900-10,000

"0"-M'00°	280,000-000,000 OO^OOO*

CITY SIZE CATEGORIES

OFFICE OF DRINKING WATER
1982 SURVEY

+ OFFICE OF DRINKING WATER
1988 SURVEY

MUNICIPAL SECTOR STUDY SURVEY

-------
Appendix 4. Average Annual Household User Charges for Environmental
Services in 1987 (1988 Dollars)	^onmentai

Municipality
Size Category

Drinking
Water

Water
Quality

Solid
Waste

Total

Less than 500

$ 304

$304

$62

$670

500-2,500

210

213

50

473

2,500-10,000

191

174

68

433

10,000-50,000

182

184

78

444

50,000-100,000

150

143

80

373

100,000-250,000

126

106

59

291

250,000-500,000

127

92

116

335

Over 500,000

108

100

185

393

Weighted Average

172

1S4

83

419

Source: Apogee Research from data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of
the Census and 1986 Survey of Community Water Systems, conducted
by the Research Triangle Institute for the Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Drinking Water, October 23, 1987.

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