United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation EPA230-F-92-007 May 1992 Climate Change Discussion Series Adaptation to Climate Change The increase in atmospheric "green- house gas" concentrations generated by human activity since the industrial revolution has most likely already committed the globe to some warm- ing. Without a significant change in the current pattern of resource use, further increases m greenhouse gas concentrations and commitments to warming are likely. Thus, prudent measures to facilitate adaptation to these changes should be considered. Not only will adaptation to climate change probably be necessary m the future, but adaptation options should be evaluated now. Many long-term resource management decisions are now being made with the assumption that climate in the future will be similar to that re- corded m recent history. Climate change could prove this assump- tion false, undermining the validity of the decisions that rest on it. Many impacts of climate change could be irreversible Other impacts could be extremely costly to address if pre- paratory actions are not taken. There are options that, if pursued now, could better prepare the planet for both global climate change and known climate variation These anbapatory options should be taken when climate change would cause either irreparable damage or an unacceptably high cost, or when an anbapatory measure has a much higher benefit/cost ratio than a mea- sure taken after climate changes that would be taken to protect the same resource. If anticipatory measures appear necessary, the following cri- teria may be used to evaluate antici- patory options: Flexibility Since the tuning and effects of climate change are uncertain, an anbapatory strategy needs to be successful under a variety of conditions, including no climate change. CURRENT SEA LEVEL ACCOMMODATE 1 Regulate building development Economic Efficiency Expensive anbapatory actions may not be justified, unless the costs of cli- mate change are very high or the im- pacts are considered to be irreversible Other Benefits Anbcipatory actions or strategies that meet other societal goals be- sides preparing for climate change are preferable. (The Administration's "No Regrets Policy"). RETREAT W- Establish building setback codes PROTECT Construct seawalls NOTE Climate change refers to potential modification of the earth's climate resulting from increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (COj), methane (CH,). nitrous oxide (N,0), and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) Through a naturally occurring process known as the "greenhouse effect," these gases act to warm the earth by trapping heat in the atmosphere This process plays an important role in maintaining the earth's current temperature and climate By increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, human activities are trapping more heat in the atmosphere and potentially changing the earth's climate Printed on Recycled Paper ------- Anticipatory Options The following is a listing of anticipatory adaptive options for specific areas. This listing consists only of options and is not intended to be comprehensive or prescriptive. Sea Level Rise • Provide beach nourishment. • Incorporate sea level rise into coastal infrastructure design. • Presumed mobility: Regula- tions could require land owners to remove structures as the sea level rises. For example, Maine adopted rules that presume all structures in the coastal zone must be moved in response to migrat- ing coastal ecosystems. Water Resources • Water conservation. • Increasing water transfer capabilities. • Protection of water quality. • Protection of possible future supplies • River basin planning. • Drought contingency planning. • Incorporate climate change into infrastructure design • Protection of riparian areas- Protecting trees living on the bank of rivers takes advantage of a natural storage system that stores water m the winter and releases it in the summer. Agriculture • Maintain genetic diversity and develop heat-, drought-, and pest-resistant crops and livestock varieties. • Increase efficiency of irrigation practices. • Incorporate potential changes in land use and irrigation supply and demand into land- use plans. • Prepare for the potential intro- duction of new pests and diseases. • Increase the use of conservation tillage and crop rotation. Forests • Maintain forest diversity and extensiveness. • Modify harvesting practices: Favor harvesting practices that increase species diversity and allow for rapid removal of dead or dying trees. • Plant fast-growing and heat-, drought-, and pest-resistant species • Adjust fire and pest control strategies. Biodiversity • Strengthen and enlarge existing protected areas. • Establish migration path- ways between existing protected areas. • Protect areas that may become suitable habitat for threatened and endangered species in the future. • Increase restrictions on zoning and management around reserves. • Avoid permanent alterations to rivers and streams that may be important migratory pathways. • Reduce the destruction and pollution of habitats in general. Health • Recognize health-debilitat- ing weather: A watch- warning system may be necessary to advise people when stressful weather conditions are imminent. • Improve disease surveil- lance systems. U S EPA Gimjte Change Ducuuion Scnn 1992 Global Climate Change Sea Level Rise Adaptation to Transportation Climate Change Energy Forestry Water Resources Agriculture Biodiversity Order from CLIMATE CHANCE INFORMATION US EPA Office of Policy Analysis Climate Change Division (PM221) 401 M Street, SW Washington, DC XM60 USA <^eDSe% T> z V , Based on Adapting to Climate Change What Governments Can Do, prepared by U S EP/Ys Climate Change Division, Washington, DC, 1991 HPA's Climate Change Outreach Program is designed to raise awareness about climate change and provide assistance to state and local governments, industry, and non-governmental organizations in the evaluation of cost-effective response strategies For further information about this program, please contact Joel Smith at 202/260-8825 ------- |