United States Air and Radiation EPA420-R-00-020
Environmental Protection October 2000
Agency
oEPA Procedures for Developing
Base Year and Future Year
Mass and Modeling
Inventories for The Heavy-
Duty Engine and Vehicle
Standards and Highway
Diesel Fuel (HDD)
Rulemaking
> Printed on Recycled Paper
-------
EPA420-R-00-020
October 2000
for
for
Mr. Gregory Stella (MD-14)
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Prepared for EPA by
E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.
3622 Lyckan Parkway, Suite 2002
Durham, NC 27707
and
5528-B Hempstead Way
Springfield, VA 22151
September 29, 2000
EPA Contract No. 68-D7-0067
Work Assignment No. 3-15
Pechan Report No. 00.09.002/9008-315 (Rev.)
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CONTENTS
Page
TABLES AND FIGURES vi
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xi
CHAPTER I
BACKGROUND 1-1
CHAPTER H
ELECTRICITY GENERATING UNITS (EGUs) H-l
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY H-l
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . . II-l
1. ORISID AND BLRID H-l
2. County Identifiers D-3
3. Latitude and Longitude n-3
4. Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Coordinates n-3
5. SCC H-3
6. Stack Parameters H-3
7. Emissions n-3
8. New Units H-5
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT
FILES H-5
1. Mass Emission Inventory H-5
2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files D-5
3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files D-6
CHAPTER HI
NON-EGU POINT SOURCES ffi-1
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY ffi-1
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . ffi-1
1. Growth Assumptions ffi-1
2. Control Assumptions ID-5
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT
FILES m-11
1. Mass Emission Inventories ffi-11
2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files ffi-11
3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files ffi-11
in
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CONTENTS (continued)
CHAPTER IV
STATIONARY AREA SOURCES IV-1
A. 1996 BASE YEAR EMISSIONS IV-1
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR EMISSIONS IV-1
1. Growth Assumptions IV-1
2. Control Assumptions IV-6
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT
FILES IV-14
1. Mass Emission Inventories IV-14
2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files IV-14
3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files IV-14
CHAPTER V
NONROAD SOURCES V-l
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY V-l
1. NONROAD Model Equipment Categories V-l
2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and
Locomotives V-3
3. Methodologies for NH3 and SOA V-4
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . V-5
1. Nonroad Model Equipment Categories V-5
2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and
Locomotives V-10
3. Methodologies forNH3 and SOA V-10
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT
FILES V-l 1
CHAPTER VI
ON-HIGHWAY VEHICLE SOURCES VI-1
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY VI-1
1. Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs VI-4
2. RFG VI-4
3. Oxygenated Gasoline VI-4
4. Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Programs VI-4
5. MOBILES to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-9
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . VI-15
1. Growth Assumptions VI-15
2. Base Case Control Assumptions VI-15
3. Control Case Emission Reductions VI-20
IV
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CONTENTS (continued)
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT
FILES VI-20
1. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files VI-20
2. EPS 2.5 and Mass Emission Inventory - File Structures VI-26
CHAPTER VII
EMISSION SUMMARIES AND COMPARISONS VH-1
CHAPTER VHI
REFERENCES VIH-1
v
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TABLES AND FIGURES
Table
II-1 Data Elements Provided in EGU Projection Files IPM Parsed Data Sets D-2
II-2 HDDV Default Parameters for Utility Boilers U-4
II-3 Model Plant Parameters for Projected New Utility Units by Type D-6
II-4 EGU Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files D-6
II-5 Structure for 1996 EGU Mass Emissions File U-7
II-6 Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU Mass Emissions Files U-10
II-7 1996 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure U-12
II-8 2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure U-13
m-1 BEA National GSP Growth Forecasts IU-3
III-2 Point Source CAA Baseline Control Assumptions ffi-6
III-3 Point Source MACT Control Assumptions ffi-7
IH-4 Non-VOC Related MACT Assumptions IU-9
IH-5 NOX SIP Call Control Application IH-10
III-6 Non-EGU Point Source Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files 111-12
IH-7 Structure for 1996 Base Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions File ffl-13
IH-8 Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 Future Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions Files IH-15
IH-9 Non-EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IE-IS
m-10 Non-EGU EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IU-19
IV-1 BEA Growth Categories Assigned by Major Source Category: Area Sources . . . . IV-2
IV-2 Animal Husbandry Categories and Growth Assumptions IV-6
IV-3 Area Source VOC Control Measure Assumptions IV-7
IV-4 Residential Wood Combustion Control Efficiency Assumptions by Pollutant and Future
Year Inventory IV-9
IV-5 Vehicle Refueling VOC Control Efficiency Assumptions Included in the Future Year
Inventories IV-9
IV-6 Counties with Stage II Controls IV-10
IV-7 Area/Nonroad Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files IV-15
IV-8 Area/Nonroad Mass Emissions Inventory File Structure IV-16
IV-9 Source Categories to which Crustal Factor was Applied to PM10 and PM2 5 Emissions in
EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files IV-18
IV-10 Area/Nonroad EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IV-19
IV-11 Area/Nonroad EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IV-20
V-la Temperature and RVP Inputs for National NONROAD Model Runs V-2
V-lb Diesel Fuel Sulfur Input Values for National NONROAD Model Runs V-2
V-2 Surrogate SCC Assignments for New SCCs in June 2000 NONROAD Model V-4
V-3 Growth Indicators/Projection Methods for Nonroad Sources V-6
V-4 Steady-State Emission Factors for CI Engines in the NONROAD Model V-8
V-5 Emission Factors for SI Engines Below 25 hp V-9
VI-1 HPMS to MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category Assignments VI-2
vi
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TABLES AND FIGURES (continued)
VI-2 National 1996 VMT by Vehicle Type for HDD Analysis VI-2
VI-3 Average Speeds by Road Type and Vehicle Type
Miles per Hour) VI-3
VI-4 Counties Modeled with Federal Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) VI-5
VI-5 Oxygenated Gasoline Modeling Parameters VI-8
VI-6 Exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-11
VI-7 NOX MOBILESb to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-12
VI-8 NOX Full Usage Air Conditioning Adjustment Factors VI-13
VI-9 HDDV Base Case Adjustment Factors VI-14
VI-10 National VMT Proj ections and VMT Fractions by Vehicle Type for HDD
Analysis VI-15
VI-11 I/M Performance Standard Program Inputs VI-16
VI-12 Evaporative VOC MOBILESb to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-21
VI-13 PM Adjustment Factors VI-22
VI-14 SO2 Adjustment Factors VI-22
VI-15 HDD Control Case Emission Reduction Percentages VI-23
VI-16 Structure for VMT Files (OFNVMTyy.TXT) VI-24
VI-17 Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (NTVMIXyy.TXT) VI-25
VI-18 Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (OFNSPyy.TXT) VI-27
VI-19 Structure for Adjustment Factor Files VI-27
VI-20 Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source EPS Data Files VI-28
VI-21 Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source Mass Emissions Data Files VI-31
VII-1 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 1996 Base Year VII-3
VII-2 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2007 Base Case VII-6
VII-3 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2007 Control Case VH-9
VII-4 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Reduction for 2007 Control Case VII-12
VII-5 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2020 Base Case VH-13
VII-6 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2020 Control Case VH-16
VII-7 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Reduction for 2020 Control Case VII-19
VII-8 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2030 Base Case VH-20
VII-9 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2030 Control Case VH-23
VII-10 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Reduction for 2030 Control Case VII-26
VII-11 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 1996 Base
Year VH-27
VII-12 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2007 Base
Case VH-32
VII-13 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2007 Control
Case VH-37
VII-14 Annual State-Level Emissions Reduction by Major Source Category for 2007 Control
Case VH-39
VII
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TABLES AND FIGURES (continued)
VII-15 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2020 Base
Case VH-41
VII-16 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2020 Control
Case VH-46
VII-17 Annual State-Level Emissions Reduction by Major Source Category for 2020 Control
Case VH-48
VII-18 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2030 Base
Case VH-50
VII-19 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2030 Control
Case VH-55
VII-20 Annual State-Level Emissions Reduction by Major Source Category for 2030 Control
Case VH-57
VII-21 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Summary VD-59
Vlll
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TABLES AND FIGURES (continued)
Figure
VII- 1
VII-2
VII-3
VII-4
VII-5
VII-6
VII-7
VII-8
VII-9
VII- 10
VII- 11
VII- 12
VII- 13
VII- 14
VII- 15
VII- 16
VII- 17
VII- 18
VII- 19
VII-20
VII-2 1
VII-22
VII-23
VII-24
VII-25
VII-26
VII-27
VII-28
VII-29
VII-3 0
VII-3 1
VII-32
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO A Emissions
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM25 Emissions
1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions
County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions for 2007 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions for 2007 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual SOA Emissions for 2007 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emission Reductions
2007 Control Case vs. 2007 Base Case
County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emission Reductions
2007 Control Case vs. 2007 Base Case
County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emission Reductions
2007 Control Case vs. 2007 Base Case
County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions for 2020 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions for 2020 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual SOA Emissions for 2020 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emission Reductions
2020 Control Case vs. 2020 Base Case
County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emission Reductions
2020 Control Case vs. 2020 Base Case
County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emission Reductions
2020 Control Case vs. 2020 Base Case
County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions for 2030 Base Case . .
County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions for 2030 Base Case . .
VH-60
. . VH-61
VH-62
. . VH-63
VH-64
. . VH-65
VH-66
. . VH-67
. . VH-68
. . VH-69
. . vn-70
. . vn-7i
. . VH-72
. . VH-73
. . VH-74
. . VH-75
. VH-76
. VH-77
. VH-78
. . VH-79
. . vn-so
. . vn-8i
. . VH-82
. . VH-83
. . VH-84
. . VH-85
. . VH-86
. VH-87
. VH-88
. VH-89
. . vn-90
. . vn-9i
IX
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TABLES AND FIGURES (continued)
VII-33 County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions for 2030 Base Case VH-92
VII-34 County-Level Density Map of Annual SOA Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VH-93
VII-35 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions for 2030 Base Case VII-94
VII-36 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VH-95
VII-37 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VII-96
VII-38 County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VII-97
VII-39 County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emission Reductions
2030 Control Case vs. 2030 Base Case VH-98
VII-40 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emission Reductions
2030 Control Case vs. 2030 Base Case VH-99
VII-41 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emission Reductions
2030 Control Case vs. 2030 Base Case VH-100
x
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AAMA
ASTM
BEA
CAA
CI
CNG
CO
DOE
EGU
EIA
EMS
EPA
EPS
F
FAA
FCM
FIPS
ft
ft/min
g/bhp-hr
GSP
HC
HDD
HDDV
HDGV
HON
hp
HPMS
I/M
IPM
LDDT
LDDV
LDGT1
LDGT2
LDGV
LEV
LNB
LPG
LTOs
m
MACT
American Automobile Manufacturers Association
American Society for Testing and Materials
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Clean Air Act
compression-ignition
compressed natural gas
carbon monoxide
U.S. Department of Energy
electric generating unit
Energy Information Administration
Emissions Modeling System
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Emissions Preprocessor System
Fahrenheit
Federal Aviation Administration
Fuel Consumption Model
Federal Information Processing Standard
feet
feet per minute
grams per brake horsepower-hour
Gross State Product
hydrocarbon
heavy-duty diesel
heavy-duty diesel vehicle
heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
Hazardous Organic NESHAP
horsepower
Highway Performance Monitoring System
Inspection and Maintenance
Integrated Planning Model
light-duty diesel truck
light-duty diesel vehicle
light-duty gasoline truck (less than 6,000 pounds in weight)
light-duty gasoline truck (6,000 to 8,500 pounds in weight)
light-duty gasoline vehicle
Low-Emission Vehicle
low-NOx burner
liquid petroleum gas
Landing-Takeoff Operations
meter
maximum achievable control technology
XI
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS (continued)
MC motorcycle
MMBtu million British thermal units
NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards
NESHAP National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants
NET National Emission Trends
NH3 ammonia
NLEV National Low Emission Vehicle
NMHC nonmethane hydrocarbon
NMOG Nonmethane Organic Gas
NOX oxides of nitrogen
OBD on-board diagnostic
OTAG Ozone Transport Assessment Group
OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality
OTC Ozone Transport Commission
OTR Ozone Transport Region
PM particulate matter
PM10 primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to
10 micrometers
PM2 5 primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to
2.5 micrometers
POTWs Publicly-Owned Treatment Works
ppm parts per million
psi pounds per square inch
RACT reasonably available control technology
REMSAD Regulatory Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition
RFG reformulated gasoline
RSD Regulatory Support Document
RVP Reid vapor pressure
SCCs Source Classification Codes
SCR selective catalytic reduction
SI spark-ignition
SIC Standard Industrial Classification
SIP State Implementation Plan
SNCR Selective Noncatalytic Reduction
SO2 sulfur dioxide
SOA secondary organic aerosols
SOCMI Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry
SOX oxides of sulfur
SSD summer season daily
TLEV transitional LEV
XII
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS (continued)
tpd tons per day
tpy tons per year
TSDFs treatment, storage, and disposal facilities
UAM-V Urban Airshed Model
ULEV Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle
U.S. United States
USD A U.S. Department of Agriculture
UTM Universal Transverse Mercator
VMT vehicle miles traveled
VOC volatile organic compound
Xlll
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CHAPTER I
BACKGROUND
To assist future State and Federal implementation of the Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle
Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel (HDD) mobile source emission standards, the United States
(U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing national annual and temporal
emission inventories and applying the Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V) and Regulatory Modeling
System for Aerosols and Deposition (REMSAD) to examine the regional ozone and particulate
matter (PM) concentration response to a series of emission control strategies. The purpose of
this report is to describe the procedures and assumptions used to develop the mass emissions
inventories and the emissions input files for the Emissions Modeling System (EMS-95) and
Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS 2.5) air quality model preprocessors.
The emission inventories developed to support the HDD rulemaking include the following:
• 1996 Base Year;
• 2007 Base Case;
• 2007 Control Case;
• 2020 Base Case;
• 2020 Control Case;
• 2030 Base Case; and
• 2030 Control Case.
These national inventories were prepared for all 50 States at the county level for mobile
highway and mobile nonroad sources. They were prepared for the 48 contiguous States (48
State) at the county-level for electric generating unit (EGU), non-EGU point, and stationary area
sources. The inventories contain annual and typical summer season day (SSD) emissions for the
following pollutants: oxides of nitrogen (NOX), volatile organic compounds (VOC), carbon
monoxide (CO), oxides of sulfur (SOX), primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter
less than or equal to 10 micrometers and 2.5 micrometers (PM10 and PM25), ammonia (NH3), and
secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The 2007, 2020, and 2030 Base Case inventories are
prepared by applying growth and control assumptions to the 1996 Base Year inventory. The
2007, 2020, and 2030 Control Case inventories are developed from the 2007, 2020, and 2030
Base Case inventories, respectively, by applying HDD control assumptions to the on-highway
vehicle and nonroad emission source sectors. The growth and control assumptions used to
prepare the 2007, 2020, and 2030 inventories are documented in this report.
Chapters II through VI of this report document the inventories for the EGU, non-EGU point,
stationary area, nonroad, and on-highway vehicle source sectors. The chapter for each sector
1-1
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documents the procedures and assumptions applied to prepare the mass emissions inventories for
the 1996 Base Year; 2007, 2020, and 2030 Base Cases; and 2007, 2020, and 2030 Control Cases.
Each chapter also discusses the procedures and assumptions applied to prepare the emissions
input files for the EMS-95 and EPS 2.5 air quality model preprocessors. Chapter VII provides
48-State emissions summaries and density maps for the emissions inventories.
1-2
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CHAPTER II
ELECTRICITY GENERATING UNITS (EGUs)
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
The 1996 base year emissions inventory for EGUs is the 1996 National Emission Trends
(NET) point source inventory version 3.12 (EPA, 2000a). This inventory includes both annual
and typical summer season day (SSD) emissions for NOX, VOC, CO, SOX, PM10, PM25, and NH3.
SOA emissions were added to the inventory by applying fractional aerosol coefficients based on
speciation of VOC emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). Inventory records with Source
Classification Codes (SCCs) of lOlxxxxx and 201xxxxx were extracted from the NET inventory
to develop the 1996 EGU inventory.
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
Projection year unit-level output files from the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) were
provided to Pechan by EPA for the EGU sector for 2007 and 2020. The 2020 IPM output file
was also used to represent EGU projections for 2030. These files include heat input, sulfur
dioxide (SO2) emissions, NOX emissions, and unit characteristics such as prime mover (boiler,
gas turbine), primary fuel, bottom type, and firing type. This section focuses on the steps used to
create the future year mass emissions inventories for 2007, 2020, and 2030, by adding to the IPM
files emissions for VOC, CO, PM10, PM2 5, NH3, and SOA, as well as data elements needed for
modeling (e.g., county codes, coordinates, and stack parameters). Note that the 2030 mass
emissions file is identical to the 2020 file.
The data elements included in the original IPM parsed data sets are shown in Table D-l. The
data sets include unit-level information for all existing or known planned units. For new units
(additional capacity needed to meet generation demands), state-level estimates by plant type
(prime mover) and fuel type are provided. Details about the additional or updated items for the
final 2007, 2020, and 2030 emission files are discussed below.
1. ORISID AND BLRID
Unique utility plant (ORISID) and unit (BLRID) identifiers are provided in the original IPM
parsed data set. These two variables were included in the emission inventories but were not
reviewed for accuracy because of time and resource constraints associated with preparing the
inventories for all sectors.
n-i
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Table 11-1
Data Elements Provided in EGU Projection Files IPM Parsed Data Sets
Data Elements
Description
Unit ID
Plant Name
Plant Type
State Name
State Code
County Name
County Code
ORIS Code
Blr
Capacity
July Day Heat
Fuel Type
Bottom
Firing
Existing SO2/NOX Controls
Retrofit SO2/NOX Controls
Typical July Day NOX
Ash Content
Fuel Sum
Fuel Tot
NOX Sum
NOX Tot
SO? Tot
IPM Unit ID
Plant name
Combined cycle, coal steam, oil/gas steam, turbine, other
State name
Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) State code
County name (sometimes missing)
FIPS county code (sometimes missing)
ORIS plant code for those units assigned codes, IPM plant code otherwise
ORIS boiler or unit code where available, otherwise IPM unit code
Boiler/unit capacity (MW)
July day heat input (109 Btu/day)
Primary fuel burned: coal, gas, natural gas, none, refuse, waste coal,
wood waste
Boiler bottom type: dry, wet, other, unknown, or blank
Firing type: cell, cyclone, tangential, vertical, well, wet, other, or unknown
Existing control for SO2 and/or NOX - scrubbed, unscrubbed, or blank
Coal to combined cycle, gas reburn, oil/gas selective noncatalytic
reduction (SNCR), oil/gas to combined cycle, retirement, coal selective
catalytic reduction (SCR), coal scrubber, coal SNCR, or blank
Typical July day NOX emissions (tons/day)
Coal ash content (for fuel type - coal only)
5-month summer heat input (1012 Btu)
Annual heat input (1012 Btu)
5-month NOX emissions (103 Ton)
Annual NOX emissions (103 Ton)
Annual SO2 emissions (103 Ton)
H-2
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2. County Identifiers
For those units with no county identifiers, counties available in cross-reference files
developed for the NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call EGU file and other prior analyses
were utilized to identify and assign the county code. Plants were matched to other inventories by
State and plant name in some cases. Others were matched to Energy Information Administration
(EIA)-860 planned unit files or to North American Electric Reliability Council reports to identify
the county.
3. Latitude and Longitude
Latitude and longitude coordinates were assigned at the plant level and were taken from a
data base file developed by Pechan. This file includes coordinates from other inventories,
including the NET inventory and the Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) inventory,
where units were matched to these inventories at the boiler or plant level. For units that have
ORIS IDs that did match to this file, county centroids were assigned.
4. Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Coordinates
The UTM coordinates and zone corresponding to the latitude and longitude were determined
by using a conversion program provided by EPA.
5. SCC
The SCC is needed to determine the appropriate emission rates to use for the additional
pollutants and to incorporate default stack parameters for units that do not match to existing
inventories. SCCs were assigned by first matching plant (ORISID) and unit (BLRID) identifiers
to existing inventories and then by assigning SCCs based on the unit, fuel, firing, and bottom
types. In cases where SCCs taken from other inventories indicate a fuel other than that specified
in the IPM unit-level file, SCCs were updated based on the indicated fuel, unit, bottom, and
firing types.
6. Stack Parameters
Stack parameters were added to the EGU file by matching to other inventories. For units
where matches to other inventories could not be made, default parameters were assigned by SCC.
These default parameters are shown in Table D-2. Stack flow rate, temperature, diameter, height,
and velocity were quality assured using the ranges supplied by EPA (Stella, 2000); all stack flow
values were then recalculated using the algorithm specified in a technical memorandum to EPA
(Pechan-Avanti, 2000).
7. Emissions
Emissions of VOC, CO, PM10, PM25, and NH3 were added to the inventory by applying
average fuel-specific heat content and updated emission rates (based on updated AP-42
n-3
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Table 11-2
HDDV Default Parameters for Utility Boilers
sec
10100101
10100201
10100202
10100203
10100204
10100212
10100217
10100221
10100222
10100223
10100226
10100301
10100302
10100303
10100401
10100404
10100601
10100604
10101201
20100201
20100202
Primary
Fuel
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Coal
Oil
Oil
Gas
Gas
Waste
Gas
Gas
PM10
Rate
(Ibs/MMBtu)
0.0920*Ash 1
0.1000*Ash
0.0885*Ash
0.0100*Ash
0.5077
0.0885*Ash
0.3000
0.1000*Ash
0.0885*Ash
0.0100*Ash
0.0885*Ash
0.1298*Ash
0.1643*Ash
0.0621 *Ash
0.0393
0.0393
0.0018
0.0018
0.6648
0.0419
0.0095
CO
Rate
(Ibs/MMBtu)
0.0240
0.0192
0.0192
0.0192
0.1923
0.0192
0.6923
0.0192
0.0192
0.0192
0.0192
0.0179
0.0429
0.0429
0.0333
0.0333
0.0800
0.0229
0.0006
0.1095
0.3800
voc
Rate
(Ibs/MMBtu)
0.0028
0.0015
0.0023
0.0042
0.0019
0.0023
0.0019
0.0015
0.0023
0.0042
0.0023
0.0050
0.0050
0.0050
0.0051
0.0051
0.0052
0.0052
0.0769
0.0010
0.1105
Stack
Temp.
(degrees F)
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
300
300
300
300
175
300
300
Stack
Height
(feet)
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
290
290
280
280
570
280
280
Stack
Diameter
(feet)
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
12
12
12
12
24
12
12
Stack
Flow
(ft3/sec)
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
3619
3619
2601
2601
16286
2601
2601
' Ash = coal ash content as a decimal; PM10 rate is calculated by multiplying the number by the ash content of the coal.
n-4
-------
uncontrolled emission factors) to the reported heat input for each unit. For PM10 and PM2 5, the
reported ash content was also utilized along with control efficiency data obtained from other
inventories. A default PM control efficiency of 90 percent was applied to all coal-fired units
which did not match to other inventories. SOA emissions were added to the inventory. SOA
emissions were calculated using fractional aerosol coefficients based on speciation of the VOC
emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989).
8. New Units
The IPM data sets provide projected heat input from new units by prime mover and fuel
type. This projected heat input was divided into individual new units based on the model plant
parameters shown in Table II-3. New units were then allocated to existing unit sites based on a
hierarchy that avoids ozone nonattainment areas (Pechan-Avanti, 1997a). After siting the units,
SCCs were assigned based on prime mover and fuel type. Default stack parameters and
emissions were added using the same methods applied for existing units. Since the new units are
defined as "new" after 1996, and 1998 data for new units were available, some new units could
be matched to the 1998 data to obtain SCCs.
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES
After adding the additional parameters to the IPM unit-level file, the final mass and
modeling inventories were prepared. June and August daily heat input and emissions were added
to the mass and EMS-95 files for ozone modeling (the IPM file contains July heat input and
emissions). This was based on monthly percentage profiles by State, prime mover, and fuel
provided by EPA (Stella, 1999). The 5-month (May through September) heat input was allocated
to the month and then divided by the number of days in the month. Typical SSD emissions were
allocated using the same procedure, assuming that the emission rate remained the same across
these 5 months. Table U-4 documents the names of the EGU mass and modeling files. Because
the 2020 IPM output file was used to represent EGU projections for 2030, the mass and
modeling files for 2020 and 2030 are identical.
1. Mass Emission Inventory
The structure for the base year and projection year mass emission inventories is shown in
Tables U-5 and II-6. The structures differ since the base year inventory was taken directly from
the NET, while the projection year inventory was based on the IPM data set, which provides
different information in some cases.
2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files
The EPS 2.5 emissions processor input files were derived directly from the mass emission
files, utilizing the annual emissions. The structures for the base year and projection year files are
shown in Tables II-7 and II-8.
H-5
-------
3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files
The structure for the EGU EMS-95 emissions processor input files is identical to the non-
EGU point source files as shown in Table ID-10 in Chapter HI. In order to eliminate potential
duplicate identifiers, the letter "e" was added to all stack and segment IDs in the EGU EMS-95
input files.
A weekly profile code of 8 was utilized for all EGU sources, consistent with files prepared
for the NOX SIP Call analysis. This assumes operation 7 days a week, with slightly lower
utilization on the weekends. A daily profile code of 33 was applied for all EGU sources.
Table 11-3
Model Plant Parameters for Projected New Utility Units by Type
Plant Parameters
Fuel Type
Unit Capacity (megawatts)
sec
Stack Height [feet (ft)]
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (F)
Exhaust Gas Flow Rate (ft3/sec)
Stack Gas Velocity (ft/sec)
Combined
Cycle
Natural Gas
225
20100201
280
12
300
2,601
23
Gas Turbine
Natural Gas
80
20100201
280
12
300
2,601
23
Coal
Coal
500
10100201
570
24
175
16,286
36
Table II-4
EGU Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files
Year
1996
2007
2020
2030
Mass
EG96MS3H.DBF
EG07MS2H.DBF
EG20MS2H.DBF
EG30MS2H.DBF
EPS 2.5
EG96EP2H.TXT
EG07EP2H.TXT
EG20EP2H.TXT
EG30EP2H.TXT
EMS95
E696EM2H.TGZ
E796EM2H.TGZ
E896EM2H.TGZ
E607EM2H.TGZ
E707EM2H.TGZ
E807EM2H.TGZ
E620EM2H.TGZ
E720EM2H.TGZ
E820EM2H.TGZ
E630EM2H.TGZ
E730EM2H.TGZ
E830EM2H.TGZ
Comments
ForEMS95, June day
ForEMS95, July day
For EMS95, August day
ForEMS95, June day
ForEMS95, July day
For EMS95, August day
ForEMS95, June day
ForEMS96, July day
For EMS95, August day
ForEMS95, June day
ForEMS95, July day
For EMS95, August day
n-6
-------
Table 11-5
Structure for 1996 EGU Mass Emissions File
Variable
YEAR
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
PLANTID5
POINTID
POINTID5
STACKID
STACKID3
ORISID
BLRID
SEGMENT
PLANT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
STKVEL
BOILCAP
CAPJJNITS
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
START_HR
DAYS
WEEKS
THRUPUT
MAXRATE
HEATCON
SULFCON
ASHCON
NETDC
SIC
LATC
LONG
VOC_EMF
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
2
3
15
5
15
5
12
3
6
6
2
40
10
4
6
4
10
9
8
1
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
2
11
12
8
5
5
9
4
9
9
11
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
2
2
3
0
4
4
4
Description
Year of Data
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
State Plant ID (5 Digit)
Point ID
Point ID (5 Digit)
Stack ID
Stack ID (3 Digit)
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Plant ID
Boiler ID
Segment ID
Plant Name
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Stack Velocity (ft/sec)
Boiler Design Capacity
Capacity Unit Code
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Hourly Start Time
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Throughput Rate (SCC units/year)
Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day)
Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit)
Sulfur Content (mass percent)
Ash Content (mass percent)
Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW)
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Code
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
VOC Emission Factor (SCC units)
n-7
-------
Table 11-5 (continued)
Variable
NOX_EMF
CO_EMF
S02_EMF
PM10_EMF
PM25_EMF
NH3_EMF
VOC_CE
NOX_CE
CO_CE
SO2_CE
PM10_CE
PM25_CE
NH3_CE
VOC_CPRI
NOX_CPRI
CO_CPRI
SO2_CPRI
PM10_CPRI
PM25_CPRI
NH3_CPRI
VOC_CSEC
NOX_CSEC
CO_CSEC
S02_CSEC
PM10_CSEC
PM25_CSEC
NH3_CSEC
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
S02_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
SOA_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD06
NOXJDSD06
CO_OSD06
S02_OSD06
PM10_OSD06
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
11
11
11
11
11
11
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
Decimals
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
NOX Emission Factor (SCC units)
CO Emission Factor (SCC units)
SO2 Emission Factor (SCC units)
PM10 Emission Factor (SCC units)
PM25 Emission Factor (SCC units)
NH3 Emission Factor (SCC units)
VOC Control Efficiency (%)
NOX Control Efficiency (%)
CO Control Efficiency (%)
SO2 Control Efficiency (%)
PM10 Control Efficiency (%)
PM25 Control Efficiency (%)
NH3 Control Efficiency (%)
VOC Primary Control Equipment Code
NOX Primary Control Equipment Code
CO Primary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code
VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code
NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code
CO Secondary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual SOA (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
June Day VOC (tons)
June Day NOX (tons)
June Day CO (tons)
June Day SO2 (tons)
June Day PM10 (tons)
n-8
-------
Table 11-5 (continued)
Variable
PM25JDSD06
SOA_OSD06
NH3JDSD06
VOC_OSD07
NOX_OSD07
CO_OSD07
S02JDSD07
PM10_OSD07
PM25_OSD07
SOA_OSD07
NH3_OSD07
VOCJDSD08
NOX_OSD08
CO_OSD08
S02_OSD08
PM10_OSD08
PM25JDSD08
SOA_OSD08
NH3_OSD08
VOC_RE
NOX_RE
CO_RE
S02_RE
PM10_RE
PM25_RE
NH3 RE
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Decimals
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
June Day PM25 (tons)
June Day SOA (tons)
June Day NH3 (tons)
July Day VOC (tons)
July Day NOX (tons)
July Day CO (tons)
July Day SO2 (tons)
July Day PM10 (tons)
July Day PM25 (tons)
July Day SOA (tons)
July Day NH3 (tons)
August Day VOC (tons)
August Day NOX (tons)
August Day CO (tons)
August Day SO2 (tons)
August Day PM10 (tons)
August Day PM25 (tons)
August Day SOA (tons)
August Day NH3 (tons)
VOC Rule Effectiveness (%)
NOX Rule Effectiveness (%)
CO Rule Effectiveness (%)
SO2 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM10 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%)
NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%)
n-9
-------
Table 11-6
Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU Mass Emissions Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
STAC KID
SEGMENT
ORISID
BLRID
PLANT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
STKVEL
BOILCAP
LAT
LON
UTMEAST
UTMNORTH
UTMZONE
ANN HEAT
WIN HEAT
SUMHEAT
JUNDHEAT
JULDHEAT
AUGDHEAT
VOC_ANN
VOC_WIN
VOC_SUM
VOC_OSD06
VOC_OSD07
VOC_OSD08
NOX_ANN
NOX_WIN
NOX_SUM
NOX_OSD06
NOX_OSD07
NOX_OSD08
CO_ANN
CO_WIN
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
15
15
12
2
6
6
40
10
4
6
4
10
9
8
9
9
9
9
2
9
9
9
9
9
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
4
4
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
Stack ID
Segment ID
DOE 4-Digit ORIS Plant Code
Boiler ID
Plant Name
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Stack Velocity (ft/sec)
Boiler Design Capacity
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
UTM Horizontal (kilometers)
UTM Vertical (kilometers)
UTM Zone
Annual Heat Input (MMBtu)
7-Month Winter Heat Input (MMBtu)
5-Month Summer Heat Input (MMBtu)
June Daily Heat Input (MMBtu)
July Daily Heat Input (MMBtu)
August Daily Heat Input (MMBtu)
Annual VOC (tons)
7-Month Winter VOC (tons)
5-Month Summer VOC (tons)
June Day VOC (tons)
July Day VOC (tons)
August Day VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
7-Month Winter NOX (tons)
5-Month Summer NOX (tons)
June Day NOX (tons)
July Day NOX (tons)
August Day NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
7-Month Winter CO (tons)
11-10
-------
Table 11-6 (continued)
Variable
CO_SUM
CO_OSD06
COJDSD07
CO_OSD08
SO2_ANN
S02_WIN
S02_SUM
SO2_OSD06
SO2_OSD07
S02_OSD08
PM10_ANN
PM10_WIN
PM10_SUM
PM10_OSD06
PM10_OSD07
PM10_OSD08
PM25_ANN
PM25_WIN
PM25_SUM
PM25_OSD06
PM25_OSD07
PM25JDSD08
NH3_ANN
NH3_WIN
NH3_SUM
NH3_OSD06
NH3JDSD07
NH3_OSD08
SOA_ANN
SOA_WIN
SOA_SUM
SOAJDSD06
SOA_OSD07
SOA OSD08
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Decimals
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
5-Month Summer CO (tons)
June Day CO (tons)
July Day CO (tons)
August Day CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
7-Month Winter SO2 (tons)
5-Month Summer SO2 (tons)
June Day SO2 (tons)
July Day SO2 (tons)
August Day SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
7-Month Winter PM10 (tons)
5-Month Summer PM10 (tons)
June Day PM10 (tons)
July Day PM10 (tons)
August Day PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
7-Month Winter PM25 (tons)
5-Month Summer PM25 (tons)
June Day PM25 (tons)
July Day PM25 (tons)
August Day PM25 (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
7-Month Winter NH3 (tons)
5-Month Summer NH3 (tons)
June Day NH3 (tons)
July Day NH3 (tons)
August Day NH3 (tons)
Annual SOA (tons)
7-Month Winter SOA (tons)
5-Month Summer SOA (tons)
June Day SOA (tons)
July Day SOA (tons)
August Day SOA (tons)
11-11
-------
Table 11-7
1996 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
SIC
STACKID
SEGMENT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
DAYS
WEEKS
LATC
LONG
VOC
NOX
CO
SO2
PM10
PM25
SOA
NH3
Type
C
C
C
C
N
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
5
5
4
3
2
8
4
6
4
10
3
3
3
3
2
1
2
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
SIC Code
Stack ID
Segment ID
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual SOA (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
11-12
-------
Table 11-8
2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure
Variable
ORISID
BLRID
SEGMENT
STACKID
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
IPMCAP
sec
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
LATC
LONG
WIN HEAT
SUMHEAT
WINVOC
SUMVOC
WINNOX
SUMNOX
WINCO
SUMCO
WINS02
SUMS02
WINPM10
SUMPM10
WINPM2.5
SUMPM2.5
WINNH3
SUMNH3
WINSOA
SUMSOA
PNAME
Type
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
Length
6
6
2
6
4
6
4
10
9
8
2
3
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
30
Decimals
0
2
0
2
1
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Description
ORIS Plant ID
ORIS Boiler ID
Segment ID
Stack ID
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per
IPM Boiler Capacity (MW)
sec
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
Winter Heat Input (trillion Btu/7
second)
months)
Summer Heat Input (trillion Btu/5 months)
Winter VOC (tons)
Summer VOC (tons)
Winter NOX (tons)
Summer NOX
Winter CO
Summer CO
Winter SO2
Summer SO2
Winter PM10
Summer PM10
Winter PM25
Summer PM25
Winter NH3
Summer NH3
Winter SOA
Summer SOA
Plant Name
11-13
-------
CHAPTER III
NON-EGU POINT SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
The 1996 base year inventory for non-EGUs is the 1996 NET point source inventory Version
3.12 (EPA, 2000a). This inventory includes both annual and typical summer season day (SSD)
emissions for NOX, VOC, CO, SOX, PM10, PM2 5, and NH3. SOA emissions were added to the
inventory by applying fractional aerosol coefficients based on speciation of VOC emissions
(Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). Inventory records with SCCs of lOlxxxxx and 201xxxxx were
excluded from the non-EGU inventory because they are included in the EGU inventory.
Latitude and longitude coordinates and stack parameters were corrected for several sources.
For some sources, multiple SCCs were listed under a single point, stack, and segment. New non-
duplicate segment IDs were created for the mass emissions file to ensure that each record had a
unique identification code for inclusion in the emissions processor input files.
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
Future year base case emissions for 2007, 2020, and 2030 were grown from the 1996 base
year mass emission inventory utilizing Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Gross State Product
(GSP) growth factors at the State level by 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code.
Control measures reflecting Clean Air Act (CAA) requirements were then incorporated. Two
separate mass emissions inventories were created for each year to reflect emissions without and
with the effects of the NOX SIP Call control requirements.
1. Growth Assumptions
The 1995 BEA GSP projections (BEA, 1995) by 2-digit SIC code were applied to estimate
changes in activity between 1996 and 2007, 2020, and 2030 for the non-EGU point source sector.
For fuel combustion sectors, energy adjustment factors were also applied to the base year
emission inventory. After applying the changes in activity, additional controls were added to
reflect the alternative scenarios.
EPA guidance for projecting emissions (EPA, 1991) lists the following economic variables
(in order of preference) for projecting emissions:
• product output;
value added;
• earnings; and
• employment.
m-i
-------
In the absence of product output projections, EPA guidance recommends value added
projections. Value added'is the difference between the value of industry outputs and inputs.
BEA GSP projections represent a measure of value added, and are a fuller measure of growth
than BEA's earnings projections because earnings represents only one component of GSP. GSP
reflects the difference between revenues from selling a product and the amounts paid for inputs
from other industries. By incorporating inputs to production, GSP reflects future changes in
production processes, efficiency, and technological changes. A comparison of BEA's 1995 GSP
projections and BEA's 1990 earnings projections indicates that GSP growth factors are slightly
higher than the earnings data. This is most often true for capital-intensive industries (e.g.,
manufacturing) than for labor-intensive industries (e.g., services). Components of GSP include
payments to capital. This is an important distinction to make because it implicitly reflects the
effect of factor substitution in production. As discussed in EPA's projections guidance, factor
substitution should be included in growth projections, making value added data preferable to
earnings data for projecting emissions.
The 1995 BEA industry GSP projections by State are available at the 2-digit SIC code level.
For each record in the non-EGU point source 1996 base year inventory, a link was established
between the State FIPS code, the SIC code, and the applicable BEA GSP growth factor. National
BEA GSP annual growth rates by industry are listed in Table ffi-l.
For fuel combustion sources, factors were applied to the 1996 base year emissions to account
for improvements in energy efficiency between 1996 and 2007, 2020, and 2030. These factors,
developed from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) publication Annual Energy Outlook 1999,
account for increases in fuel and process efficiency in future years (DOE, 1998). Basically, less
fuel will be needed to provide the same amount of energy (generally in the form of steam) to an
industrial process and the amount of energy needed per unit output will also decrease as
processes become more efficient. For example, DOE projects natural gas consumption in the
commercial sector to rise from 3.392 quadrillion Btu in 1996 to 3.997 quadrillion Btu in 2020.
Over this same time-frame, DOE projects commercial building square footage to increase from
59.5 billion square feet to 72.9 billion square feet. To reflect the projected change in natural gas
consumed per square foot of commercial building space, natural gas energy intensity factors were
calculated for 1996 and each projection year. For example, 0.2475 quadrillion Btu/square foot of
natural gas is projected to be consumed in 2020 versus 0.2551 quadrillion Btu/square foot in
1996. For all commercial sector natural gas source categories, the BEA commercial sector
growth factors are multiplied by 0.97, which represents the ratio of the 2020 energy intensity
factor for commercial sector natural gas to the 1996 energy intensity factor for commercial
natural gas. Similar ratios were calculated and applied for other fuels used in the commercial
sector, and for all fuels used in the residential and industrial energy sectors. These adjustments
were based on those used in the NET inventory projections (EPA, 2000a).
m-2
-------
Table 111-1
BEA National GSP Growth Forecasts
Industry (SIC Code)
All-Industry Total
Farm (01)
Nonfarm (02)
Agricultural services (07, 08, 09)
Mining (10, 12, 13, 14)
Metal mining (10)
Coal mining (12)
Oil and gas extraction (13)
Nonmetallic minerals (14)
Construction (15, 16, 17)
Manufacturing (20 - 39)
Durable goods
Lumber and wood products (24)
Furniture and fixtures (25)
Stone, clay, and glass products (32)
Primary metals (33)
Fabricated metals (34)
Industrial machinery (35)
Electronic equipment (36)
Motor vehicles and equipment (371)
Other transportation equipment (37,
excluding 371)
Instruments and related products (38)
Miscellaneous manufacturing (39)
Nondurable Goods
Food and kindred products (20)
Tobacco products (21)
Textile mill products (22)
Apparel and other textile products (23)
Paper products (26)
Printing and publishing (27)
Chemicals and allied products (28)
Petroleum and coal products (29)
Rubber and plastics products (30)
Leather and leather products (31)
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2007
1.8
1.8
3.8
3.2
2.6
0.1
1.3
1.2
0.6
1.6
0.8
0.4
0.7
3.3
2.2
1.1
2.3
1.3
1.8
1.2
-3.0
1.1
1.6
2.0
0.6
1.4
1.1
2.9
-0.1
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2020
1.5
1.5
3.2
2.7
2.1
0.2
1.2
1.1
0.7
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.8
2.6
1.9
1.0
2.0
1.3
1.6
1.1
-2.5
1.0
1.4
1.8
0.7
1.3
1.1
2.5
-0.1
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2030
1.2
1.2
2.7
2.3
1.7
0.3
1.1
1.0
0.7
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.8
2.1
1.6
1.0
1.8
1.3
1.4
1.1
-2.2
1.0
1.2
1.6
0.7
1.3
1.1
2.2
-0.1
m-3
-------
Table 111-1 (continued)
Annual Growth
(% per year)
Industry (SIC Code) 1 996 to 2007
Transportation and Public Utilities (40 - 49)
Railroad transportation (40)
Local and interurban transit (41)
Trucking and warehousing (42)
Water transportation (44)
Transportation by air (45)
Pipelines (46)
Transportation services (47)
Communications (48)
Utilities (49)
Wholesale and Retail Trade (50 - 59)
Wholesale trade (50, 51)
Retail trade (52 - 59)
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (60 - 67)
Banks and investment (60, 61 , 62, 67)
Insurance (63, 64)
Real estate (65)
Services (70 - 89)
Hotels and other lodging (70)
Personal services (72)
Business services (73)
Auto repair and parking (75)
Amusement (79)
Health services (80)
Legal services (81)
Educational services (82)
Social services (83)
Private households (88)
Other services (84, 86, 89)
Government
Federal, civilian
Federal, military
State and local
Population
3.0
1.4
2.1
0.1
3.3
1.0
2.9
2.8
1.9
2.4
2.1
2.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
1.0
2.9
1.7
2.9
2.3
1.5
1.8
2.8
0.9
2.7
0.3
-0.1
1.4
0.9
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2020
2.4
1.3
1.8
0.3
2.8
0.9
2.4
2.4
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.3
1.7
1.8
1.9
0.9
2.4
1.5
2.4
2.0
1.3
1.6
2.3
0.8
2.3
0.4
0.2
1.3
0.8
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2030
2.0
1.3
1.6
0.4
2.4
0.8
2.1
2.1
1.5
1.8
1.6
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.9
2.0
1.3
2.1
1.8
1.2
1.5
2.0
0.8
2.0
0.5
0.4
1.2
0.8
SOURCE: Developed from BEA, 1995.
m-4
-------
2. Control Assumptions
Since the base year inventory for this effort is 1996, reasonably available control technology
(RACT) requirements were assumed to have already been implemented. So, for stationary
sources, CAA controls include Federal initiatives as shown in Table ni-2 for point sources.
Maximum achievable control technology (MACT) controls were also included as shown in
Tables HI-3 and HI-4.
NOX emissions for the 23 States (22 States plus the District of Columbia) covered by the
NOX SIP Call were also reduced to reflect the NOX SIP Call requirements. The NOX SIP Call
controls were applied to the 2007 base case inventory. For the 2020 and 2030 base case
inventories, sources affected by the NOX SIP Call were capped at 2007 emission levels.
The NOX SIP Call was modeled by first identifying the sources in the 1996 NET inventory
which are large, and are within the source categories covered under the SIP Call. This procedure
was performed by first matching the non-EGU point sources in the 1996 NET inventory file with
the large sources in the NOX SIP Call data base. This was computer matching that required that
the numeric identifiers in each file be identical at the State, county, plant, and point level. After
this exercise was performed, there were 633 sources in the 1996 NET inventory that were
identified as large sources affected by the NOX SIP Call. Because this included less than 30
percent of the 2,216 large sources in the NOX SIP Call control region, additional steps were taken
to identify the remaining large, affected sources in the 1996 NET non-EGU point source file.
These steps were applied separately to the four major source categories that are affected by the
SIP Call, as follows:
1. For boilers, all sources in the SIP Call-affected States with a boiler design capacity in
the 1996 NET file greater than or equal to 250 million British thermal units (MMBtu)
were deemed to be large sources.
2. For turbines, all sources in the SIP Call-affected States with a boiler design capacity in
the 1996 NET file greater than or equal to 250 MMBtu were tagged as large sources.
3. For 1C engines, all sources with 1996 NOX emissions greater than 1 ton per day were
tagged as large sources.
4. For cement manufacturing, all sources with 1996 NOX emissions greater than 1 ton per
day were tagged as large sources.
Once the large sources were determined, the following percentages were applied according
to the source category affected:
Industrial Boilers 60%
Gas Turbines 60%
Internal Combustion Engines 90%
Cement Manufacturing 30%
Multiple estimates of NOX emissions were supplied in the modeling files for non-EGU point
sources to account for with and without SIP Call cases, and to reflect ozone versus non-ozone
season emission differences for the NOX controls expected to be operating only during the 5-
m-5
-------
month ozone season. The typical SSD emission estimates incorporate the effects of NOX SIP
Call controls. Annual NOX emission estimates are the sum of 5-month ozone season NOX
emissions, plus 7-month (October-April) NOX emissions. Table III-5 shows the source types
affected by the NOX SIP Call and describes which controls were applied to each source type. For
the source categories that are affected by the NOX SIP Call, non-ozone season emissions were
estimated using the same control percentages listed above if the dominant source type for that
control device is expected to be one that provides year-round emission reductions. For seasonal
controls, such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR) or selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR)
applications to industrial boilers and cement kilns, NOX controls were not applied during the 7-
month non-ozone season when NOX emissions were estimated. Table ni-5 lists the primary NOX
control technology assumed for each category.
Table 111-2
Point Source CAA Baseline Control Assumptions
Source Category Pollutant Control Efficiency (%)*
National Rules
Marine vessel loading: petroleum liquids VOC 80
Treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) VOC 96
Municipal solid waste landfills VOC 82
NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels.
m-6
-------
Table 111-3
Point Source MACT Control Assumptions
VOC Control
Source Category Efficiency (%)*
Benzene National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) (national)
By-product coke mfg 85
By-product coke - flushing-liquor circulation tank 95
By-product coke - excess-NH3 liquor tank 98
By-product coke mfg. - tar storage 98
By-product coke mfg. - light oil sump 98
By-product coke mfg. - light oil dec/cond vents 98
By-product coke mfg. - tar bottom final cooler 81
By-product coke mfg. - naphthalene processing 100
By-product coke mfg. - equipment leaks 83
By-product coke manufacture - other 94
By-product coke manufacture - oven charging 94
Coke ovens - door and topside leaks 94
Coke oven by-product plants 94
2-Year MACT (national)
Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry (SOCMI) Hazardous Organic NESHAP (HON)
-SOCMI processes 79
- Volatile organic liquid storage 95
- SOCMI fugitives (equipment leak detection and repair) 60
- SOCMI wastewater 0
- Ethylene oxide manufacture 98
- Phenol manufacture 98
- Acrylonitrile manufacture 98
- Polypropylene manufacture 98
- Polyethylene manufacture 98
- Ethylene manufacture 98
Dry Cleaning
- Perchloroethylene 95
- Other 70
4-Year MACT (national)
TSDFs (offsite waste operations) 96
Shipbuilding and repair 24
Polymers and resins II 78
Polymers and resins IV 70
Styrene-butadiene rubber manufacture (polymers & resins group I) 70
Wood furniture surface coating 30
Aircraft surface coating (aerospace) 60
Petroleum Refineries: other sources
- Fixed roof petroleum product tanks 98
- Fixed roof gasoline tanks 96
- External floating roof petroleum product tanks 90
- External floating roof gasoline tanks 95
- Petroleum refinery wastewater treatment 72
- Petroleum refinery fugitives 72
- Petroleum refineries - Slowdown w/o control 78
-Vacuum distillation 72
m-7
-------
Table 111-3 (continued)
VOC Control
Source Category Efficiency (%)*
Halogenated Solvent Cleaners
- Open top degreasing - halogenated 63
- In-line (conveyorized) degreasing - halogenated 39
Printing
- Flexographic 32
- Gravure 27
Gasoline Marketing
- Storage 5
-Splash loading 99
- Balanced loading 87
-Submerged loading 99
-Transit 5
- Leaks 39
7/10-Year MACT (national)
Paint and varnish manufacture 35
Rubber tire manufacture 70
Green tire spray 90
Automobile surface coating 79
Beverage can surface coating 57
Paper surface coating 78
Flatwood surface coating 90
Fabric printing 80
Metal surface coating 90
Plastic parts surface coating 45
Pulp and paper production 70
Agricultural chemical production 79
Pharmaceutical production 79
Polyesters 70
Fabric coating 70
Petroleum refineries - fluid catalytic cracking 70
Oil and natural gas production 90
Explosives 70
Plywood/particle board 70
Reinforced plastics 70
Publicly-Owned Treatment Works (POTWs) 70
Phthalate plasticizers 70
Polymers and resins III 78
Rayon production 70
Polyvinyl chloride 70
Spandex production 70
Nylon 6 production 70
Alkyd resins 70
Polyester resins 70
Chelating agents 70
NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels.
m-8
-------
Table 111-4
Non-VOC Related MACT Assumptions
Source Category
Pollutant
Percentage Reduction (%)*
Municipal Waste Combustors
Cement Manufacturing
Secondary Aluminum
Medical Waste Incineration
Hazardous Waste Incineration
PM
S02
PM
PM
PM
NOX
S02
PM
30
50
90
90
88
20
20
36
NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels.
m-9
-------
Table 111-5
NOX SIP Call Control Application
HH
H
o
Source Type Description NOX Control
Year-round application
Industrial Boilers (non-coal) LNB and LNB plus flue gas
recirculation
Turbines LNB plus water injection
Cement Kilns (wet) Mid-kiln firing
Reciprocating 1C Engines Low emission combustion
Cement Kilns (dry) Mid-kiln firing
5-month ozone season application
Industrial Boilers (coal) SCR or SNCR
Cement Kilns (coal) SCR or SNCR
Cost Pod Number
15
16
17
41
42
43
23
24
50
34
21
22
46
33
11
12
13
14
81
Cost Pod Name
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
Gas Turbines
Gas Turbines
Gas Turbines
Cement Mfg. (wet)
1C Engines
1C Engines
1C Engines
Cement Mfg. (dry)
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
Cement Kiln
Cost Pod Fuel Type
Residual Oil
Distillate Oil
Natural Gas
Process Gas
Coke
LPG
Oil
Natural Gas
Jet Fuel
NA
Oil
Gas
Gas, Diesel, LPG
NA
Coal/Wall
Coal/FBC
Coal/Stoker
Coal/Cyclone
Coal
Notes: LNB = low-NOx burners; ICI = industrial, commercial, and institutional; LPG = liquified petroleum gas; NA = not applicable;
SCR = selective catalytic reduction; and SNCR = selective non-catalytic reduction.
-------
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES
Three new variables were added to the structures of the mass emissions inventories. Unique
5 character IDs for plant and point, and unique 3 character IDs for stack were added to facilitate
the transition from mass to emissions processor input files. Table ffi-6 documents the names of
the non-EGU mass and emissions processor input files.
1. Mass Emission Inventories
The structures for the mass emission inventories are detailed in Tables ni-7 and ni-8, as the
base year and future year inventories differed. Data elements included in the base year inventory
and excluded from the future year inventories include the pollutant emission factor (-EMF),
primary control equipment code (-CPRI), and secondary control equipment code (-CSEC).
2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files
The EPS 2.5 emissions processor input file structure is detailed in Table III-9. Input files for
EPS 2.5 limit the width of plant and point IDs to 5 characters, so the unique 5-character IDs were
used in the EPS 2.5 input files. The unique 3-character IDs for stack were also used because of
limitations on the data field width for stack ID.
3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files
The EMS-95 emissions processor input files include typical SSD VOC, NOX, and CO
emissions for ozone modeling. The EMS-95 input file structure is detailed in Table 111-10.
Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates were added to the EMS-95 input files to
account for input requirements of the model. The future year emissions files contain the effects
of the NOX SIP Call control requirements since only SSD emissions are provided in the EMS-95
input files.
A weekly profile code of 8 was utilized for all non-EGU sources, consistent with files
prepared for the NOX SIP Call analysis. This assumes operation 7 days a week, with slightly
lower utilization on the weekends.
m-ii
-------
Table 111-6
Non-EGU Point Source Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files
Year
Mass
EPS 2.5
EMS-95
Comments
1996
2007
PT96MS2H.DBF PT96EP1H.TXT PT96EM1H.TGZ
PT7MS1H1.DBF
PT07MS2H.DBF
PT07EP2H.TXT PT07EM2H.TGZ
Excludes NOX SIP Call Controls.
Includes typical summer season day (SSD), 5-month, 7-month, and annual
emissions. SSD and 5-month emissions include NOX SIP Call controls.
Annual emissions are sum of 5- and 7-month emissions.
2020 PT2MS1H1.DBF
PT2MS2H2.DBF
PT2EP2H2.TXT PT2EM2H2.TGZ
Excludes NOX SIP Call Controls.
Includes typical SSD, 5-month, 7-month, and annual emissions. SSD and
5-month emissions include NOX SIP Call controls. Annual emissions are sum
of 5- and 7-month emissions.
H
to
2030 PT3MS1H1.DBF
PT3MS2H2.DBF
PT3EP2H2.TXT PT3EM2H2.TGZ
Excludes NOX SIP Call Controls.
Includes typical SSD, 5-month, 7-month, and annual emissions. SSD and
5-month emissions include NOX SIP Call controls. Annual emissions are sum
of 5- and 7-month emissions.
-------
Table 111-7
Structure for 1996 Base Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions File
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
STACKID
SEGMENT
ORISID
BLRID
PLANT
sec
UTMEAST
UTMNORTH
UTMZONE
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
STKVEL
BOILCAP
CAPJJNITS
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
START HR
DAYS
WEEKS
THRUPUT
MAXRATE
HEATCON
SULFCON
ASHCON
NETDC
SIC
LATC
LONG
VOC EMF
NOX_EMF
CO_EMF
SO2_EMF
PM10 EMF
PM25_EMF
NH3_EMF
VOC_CE
NOX CE
CO_CE
S02_CE
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Lenqth
2
3
15
15
12
2
6
6
40
10
9
9
9
4
6
4
10
9
8
1
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
2
11
12
8
5
5
9
4
9
9
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
7
7
7
7
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
2
2
3
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
Stack ID
Segment ID
DOE Plant ID
Boiler ID
Plant Name
sec
UTM easting (km)
UTM northing (km)
UTM zone
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Stack Velocity (ft/sec)
Boiler Design Capacity (MMBtu/hour)
Capacity Unit Code
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Hourly Start Time
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Throughput Rate (SCC units/year)
Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day)
Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit)
Sulfur Content (mass percent)
Ash Content (mass percent)
Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW)
SIC Code
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
VOC Emission Factor (SCC units)
NOX Emission Factor (SCC units)
CO Emission Factor (SCC units)
SO2 Emission Factor (SCC units)
PM10 Emission Factor (SCC units)
PM25 Emission Factor (SCC units)
NH3 Emission Factor (SCC units)
VOC Control Efficiency (%)
NOX Control Efficiency (%)
CO Control Efficiency (%)
SO2 Control Efficiency (%)
m-13
-------
Table 111-7 (continued)
Variable
PM10_CE
PM25 CE
NH3_CE
VOC_CPRI
NOX_CPRI
CO CPRI
S02_CPRI
PM10_CPRI
PM25_CPRI
NH3 CPRI
VOC_CSEC
NOX_CSEC
CO_CSEC
SO2 CSEC
PM10_CSEC
PM25_CSEC
NH3_CSEC
VOC ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10 ANN
PM25_ANN
SOA_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC OSD
NOXJDSD
CO_OSD
SO2_OSD
PM10 OSD
PM25JDSD
SOA_OSD
NH3_OSD
VOC RE
NOX_RE
CO_RE
SO2_RE
PM10 RE
PM25_RE
NH3_RE
STACKID3
PLANTID5
POINTID5
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
C
C
Lenqth
7
7
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
Decimals
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
PM10 Control Efficiency (%)
PM25 Control Efficiency (%)
NH3 Control Efficiency (%)
VOC Primary Control Equipment Code
NOX Primary Control Equipment Code
CO Primary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code
VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code
NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code
CO Secondary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual SOA (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
Summer Season Daily VOC (tons)
Summer Season Daily NOX (tons)
Summer Season Daily CO (tons)
Summer Season Daily SO2 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM10 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM25 (tons)
Summer Season Daily SOA (tons)
Summer Season Daily NH3 (tons)
VOC Rule Effectiveness (%)
NOX Rule Effectiveness (%)
CO Rule Effectiveness (%)
SO2 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM10 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%)
NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%)
Stack ID (3 Digit)
State Plant ID (5 Digit)
Point ID (5 Diqit)
m-14
-------
Table 111-8
Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 Future Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
STACKID
SEGMENT
PLANTID5
POINTID5
STACKID3
ORISID
BLRID
PLANT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
STKVEL
BOILCAP
CAPJJNITS
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
START_HR
DAYS
WEEKS
THRUPUT
MAXRATE
HEATCON
SULFCON
ASHCON
NETDC
SIC
LATC
LONG
UTMEAST
UTMNORTH
UTMZONE
VOC_EMF
NOX_EMF
CO_EMF
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
15
15
12
2
5
5
3
6
6
40
10
4
6
4
10
9
8
1
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
2
11
12
8
5
5
9
4
9
9
9
9
9
11
11
11
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
2
2
3
0
4
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
Stack ID
Segment ID
State Plant ID (5 Digit)
Point ID (5 Digit)
Stack ID (3 Digit)
DOE Plant ID
Boiler ID
Plant Name
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Stack Velocity (ft/sec)
Boiler Design Capacity
Capacity Unit Code
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Hourly Start Time
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Throughput Rate (SCC units/year)
Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day)
Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit)
Sulfur Content (mass percent)
Ash Content (mass percent)
Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW)
SIC Code
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
UTM easting (km)
UTM northing (km)
UTM zone
VOC Emission Factor (SCC units)
NOX Emission Factor (SCC units)
CO Emission Factor (SCC units)
m-15
-------
Table 111-8 (continued)
Variable
SO2_EMF
PM10_EMF
PM25_EMF
NH3_EMF
VOC_CE
NOX_CE
CO_CE
SO2_CE
PM10_CE
PM25_CE
NH3_CE
VOC_CPRI
NOX_CPRI
CO_CPRI
S02_CPRI
PM10_CPRI
PM25_CPRI
NH3_CPRI
VOC_CSEC
NOX_CSEC
CO_CSEC
S02_CSEC
PM10_CSEC
PM25_CSEC
NH3_CSEC
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
SOA_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOX_OSD
CO_OSD
SO2JDSD
PM10_OSD
PM25_OSD
SOA_OSD
NH3_OSD
NOX_5MON
NOX_7MON
VOC RE
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
11
11
11
11
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
3
Decimals
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
Description
SO2 Emission Factor (SCC units)
PM10 Emission Factor (SCC units)
PM25 Emission Factor (SCC units)
NH3 Emission Factor (SCC units)
VOC Control Efficiency (%)
NOX Control Efficiency (%)
CO Control Efficiency (%)
SO2 Control Efficiency (%)
PM10 Control Efficiency (%)
PM25 Control Efficiency (%)
NH3 Control Efficiency (%)
VOC Primary Control Equipment Code
NOX Primary Control Equipment Code
CO Primary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code
VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code
NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code
CO Secondary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual SOA (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
Summer Season Daily VOC (tons)
Summer Season Daily NOX (tons)
Summer Season Daily CO (tons)
Summer Season Daily SO2 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM10 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM25 (tons)
Summer Season Daily SOA (tons)
Summer Season Daily NH3 (tons)
5-month Summer NOX, May-September (tons)
7-month NOX, October-April (tons)
VOC Rule Effectiveness (%)
m-16
-------
Table 111-8 (continued)
Variable
Type Length Decimals Description
NOX_RE
CO_RE
S02_RE
PM10_RE
PM25_RE
NH3_RE
POD_VOC
ERAT
GFAC
SIPSIZE
POD_NOX
POD
SIC2
SIZE
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
N
N
C
C
C
C
C
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
9
9
1
3
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
NOX Rule Effectiveness (%)
CO Rule Effectiveness '0/-
SO2 Rule Effectiveness
PM,n Rule Effectiveness (%
''10
PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%)
NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%)
VOC Cost Pod
Energy Adjustment Factor
BEA Growth Factor
Plant Size Based on NOX SIP Call
NOX Cost Pod
Cost Pod
2-digit SIC Code
Plant Size Based on Capacity or Emission (see text)
HI-17
-------
Table 111-9
Non-EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
SIC
STAC KID
SEGMENT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
DAYS
WEEKS
LATC
LONG
VOC
NOX
CO
SO2
PM10
PM25
SOA
NH3
Type
C
C
C
C
N
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
5
5
4
3
2
8
4
6
4
10
3
3
3
3
2
1
2
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID (5 digit)
Point ID (5 digit)
SIC Code
Stack ID (3 digit)
Segment ID
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic ft per second)
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual SOA (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
m-18
-------
Table 111-10
Non-EGU EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure
Field
Facility File:
STID
CYID
FCID
SIC
UTMX
UTMY
UTMZ
NAME
Stack File:
STID
CYID
FCID
STKID
DIAM
HEIT
TEMP
VELOC
FLOW
UTMX
UTMY
ELEV
Device File:
STID
CYID
FCID
STKID
DVID
SIC
DEC
JAN
FEE
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
WIN
SPR
Type
N
N
C
C
N
N
N
C
N
N
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2.
3.
15.
4.
9.1
9.1
2.
40.
2.
3.
15.
12.
8.4
7.2
7.2
7.2
10.2
9.1
9.1
9.1
2.
3.
15.
12.
12.
4.
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
3.
3.
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Facility ID
Standard Industrial Classification
UTM easting (m)
UTM northing (m)
UTM zone
Facility Name
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Facility ID
Stack ID
Inside Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Height above Ground Surface (ft)
Stack Exit Temperature (F)
Stack Exit Velocity (ft/sec)
Stack Exit Flow Rate (actual cubic ft/min)
UTM easting (m)
UTM northing (m)
Elevation of Stack Base from Mean Sea Level (ft)
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Facility ID
Stack ID
Device ID
Standard Industrial Classification
Fractional December Throughput
Fractional January Throughput
Fractional February Throughput
Fractional March Throughput
Fractional April Throughput
Fractional May Throughput
Fractional June Throughput
Fractional July Throughput
Fractional August Throughput
Fractional September Throughput
Fractional October Throughput
Fractional November Throughput
Winter Throughput (Dec - Feb) (%)
Spring Throughput (Mar- May) (%)
m-19
-------
Table 111-10 (continued)
Field
SUM
FAL
HOURS
DAYS
WEEKS
DAYYEAR
HOURYEAR
Process File:
STID
CYID
FCID
STKID
DVID
PRID
sec
PRRT
PRUN
Emissions File:
STID
CYID
FCID
STKID
DVID
PRID
POLID
ACEF
ALEF
ACEE
ALEE
ESTT
PCEC
SCEC
CEEF
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
C
C
C
C
N
C
N
N
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
C
C
C
N
Length
3.
3.
2.
2.
2.
3.
4.
2.
3.
15.
12.
12.
12.
8.
13.
15.
2.
3.
15.
12.
12.
12.
5.
13.
13.
13.
13.
2.
5.
5.
7.4
Description
Summer Throughput (Jun - Aug) (% )
Fall Throughput (Sep - Nov) (%)
Hours of Operation per Day (hours/day)
Days of Operation per Week (days/week)
Weeks of Operation per Year (weeks/year)
Days of Operation per Year (days/year)
Hours of Operation per Year (hours/year)
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Facility ID
Stack ID
Device ID
Process ID
Source Classification Code
Annual Process Rate (SCC units/year)
Optional Process Rate Units If Different from SCC
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Facility ID
Stack ID
Device ID
Process ID
Pollutant ID
Actual Emission Factor (tons/SCC units)
Allowable Emission Factor (tons/SCC units)
Actual Emissions (tons)
Allowable Emissions (tons)
Temporal Basis (AA, AD, or DS)
Primary Control Equipment
Secondary Control Equipment
Control Equipment Efficiency (%)
m-20
-------
CHAPTER IV
STATIONARY AREA SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR EMISSIONS
The 1996 base year inventory for stationary area sources is the 1996 NET area source
inventory Version 3.11 (EPA, 2000a). Version 3.11 is the most current version that reflects
corrections to wildfire emission estimates for Kansas and removal of area source electric utility
emissions to avoid double counting with point source EGU emissions. SOA emissions were
added to the inventory by applying fractional aerosol coefficients based on speciation of VOC
emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989).
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR EMISSIONS
Projection year emissions are a function of projected changes (growth or decline) in activity
as well as changes in control levels. The following sections describe the growth and control
assumptions utilized for this analysis.
1. Growth Assumptions
The BEA GSP growth, including population and combinations of industries (e.g., durable
goods manufacturing, total manufacturing) were used to project emissions from 1996 to 2007,
2020, and 2030 for the area source sector. The surrogates used for each category were based on
the same cross-reference list used in the Ozone/PM National Ambient Air Quality Standard
(NAAQS) analysis (Pechan-Avanti, 1997b). Updated non-BEA growth factors were applied to
estimate future year activity for prescribed burning (projections of acres of public land burned
from EPA and Federal land managers), agricultural sources (acres planted projections), and
unpaved road emissions based on work completed for EPA's Section 812 Prospective Analysis
(Pechan-Avanti, 1998). Livestock emissions growth was also updated for this analysis, utilizing
exptrapolations of Census of Agriculture data.
Pechan matched area source categories with surrogate activity indicators (e.g., GSP by
industry, population, or broader BEA categories) in order to utilize the BEA data. The variable
chosen as a proxy for emissions growth is shown by source category in Table IV-1. For broad
industrial categories such as Industrial Fuel Combustion and Miscellaneous Industrial Processes,
BEA GSP growth for the manufacturing sector represents the activity level for projecting
emissions. Population was used as a surrogate growth indicator for area source categories such
as Dry Cleaning, Household Solvent Use, and Residential Fuel Combustion. Projected emissions
for each State/area source SCC combination were calculated by multiplying base year emissions
by the growth factor for the BEA growth indicator.
IV-1
-------
Table IV-1
BEA Growth Categories Assigned by Major Source Category: Area Sources
Source Category
BEA Growth Category*
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion:
Industrial
Commercial/Institutional
Residential
Industrial Processes:
Process Emissions: Synthetic Fiber
Process Emissions: Pharmaceuticals
SOCMI Fugitives
Food & Kindred Products - Bakeries
Petroleum Refining
Oil & Gas Production
Miscellaneous Industrial Processes
Surface Coating:
Architectural
Auto Refinishing
Traffic Markings
Flat Wood Coating
Wood and Metal Furniture
Paper Coating
Metal Can & Coating
Electrical Insulation
Appliances
Machinery
Motor Vehicles (New)
Aircraft Coating
Marine Paints
Rail Equipment Coating
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Industrial Maintenance
Aerosols, Specific Purpose
Degreasing (Vapor and Cold Cleaning):
Furniture
Metallurgical Process
Fabricated Metals
Industrial Machinery
Electrical Equipment
Transportation Equipment
Instrument Manufacturing
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Automobile Dealers & Repair
Other Degreasing Sources
Total Manufacturing
Government and Government Enterprises
Population
Textile Mill Products (SIC 22)
Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28)
Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28)
Food and Kindred Products (SIC 20)
Petroleum and Coal Products (SIC 29)
Oil and Gas Extraction (SIC 13)
Total Manufacturing
Construction (SIC 15, 16, and 17)
Auto Repair, Services, and Garages (SIC 75)
Construction (SIC 15, 16, and 17)
Lumber and Wood Products (SIC 24)
Furniture and Fixtures (SIC 25)
Printing and Publishing (SIC 27)
Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34)
Machinery, except Electrical (SIC 35)
Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34)
Electric and Electronic Equipment (SIC 36)
Motor Vehicles and Equipment (SIC 371)
Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37)
Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37)
Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37)
Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39)
Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39)
Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39)
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing •
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
IV-2
-------
Table IV-1 (continued)
Source Category
BEA Growth Category*
Solvent Use:
Dry Cleaning (all types)
Graphic Arts
Rubber and Plastics
Industrial Adhesives
Cutback Asphalt
Pesticides - Farm
Personal, Household and Automotive Products
Commercial Adhesives
Petroleum & Petroleum Product Storage & Transport:
Bulk Stations/Terminals
Gasoline Service Stations (Stage I and II)
Gasoline Service Stations (Underground Tank)
Waste Disposal, Treatment, & Recovery:
On-Site Incineration - Industrial
On-Site Incineration - Commercial/Institutional
On-Site Incineration - Residential
Open Burning - Industrial
Open Burning - Commercial/Institutional
Open Burning - Residential
Wastewater Treatment - Public Owned
TSDFs
Miscellaneous Area Sources:
Agriculture Production (field burning, tilling)
Agricultural Livestock
Prescribed burning
Wildfires
Unpaved Roads
Paved Roads
Population
Printing and Publishing (SIC 27)
Rubber and Misc. Plastics Products (SIC 30)
Total Manufacturing
Local/lnterurban Passenger Transit (SIC 41)
Population
Population
Population
Trucking and Warehousing (SIC 42)
Gasoline Consumption**
Gasoline Consumption**
Total Manufacturing
Government and Government Enterprises
Population
Total Manufacturing
Government and Government Enterprises
Population
Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services (SIC 49)
Total Manufacturing
USDA-Agricultural Baseline Projections
Extrapolated from historical Census of Agriculture data
Reflects expected increases in Federal prescribed burning
activity on public lands
Zero Growth
Extrapolated from 1984 to 1996 trend in unpaved road
mileage
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from MOBILE4.1 Fuel
Consumption Model (FCM)
NOTES: *BEA growth category refers to GSP projections for each industry, unless "Population" is indicated.
**Gasoline consumption projections are from the MOBILE FCM.
IV-3
-------
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USD A) has developed baseline projections of farm
acres planted (USDA, 1998). These data, combined with historical data back to 1990, for eight
major crop types shows an expected average annual growth of only 0.38 percent per year from
1990 to 2007. The BEA GSP projections for farms result in an annual average growth of
2.0 percent per year. Projections of acres planted represent better predictors of future activity
than GSP for agricultural tilling, so they were used in this analysis. Levels of acres planted were
assumed to remain constant between 2010 and 2030.
During an interagency (Department of the Interior/USD A) satellite conference held in April
1998, public forest land managers discussed an annual prescribed burning target of 5 million
acres for 2010, although specific areas for burning were not identified. Using this target figure,
public land activity levels were projected to arrive at 2010 public land activity estimates. For
private forest lands, it is estimated that the level of prescribed burning activity remains constant
at base year levels. Estimates for 2020 and 2030 were assumed to be the same as 2010. For
2007, data were extrapolated between 2000 and 2010.
Unpaved road emission projections reflect the historical downward trend in miles of
unpaved roads. The States were divided into three geographic groups: East, Central, and West.
East was defined as EPA Regions 1 through 4, Central as EPA Regions 5 through 8, and West as
EPA Regions 9 and 10. Linear regression was used to estimate the continued decline in unpaved
road miles to 2030. For the emission projections, 2007 and 2030 unpaved road emissions were
estimated by applying the average annual change between 1984 and 1996 out to the projection
year.
For fuel combustion sources, energy adjustment factors were also applied to the baseline
inventory. These factors, developed from the DOE publication Annual Energy Outlook 1999,
account for increases in fuel and process efficiency in future years (DOE, 1998). Basically, less
fuel will be needed to provide the same amount of energy (generally in the form of steam) to an
industrial process and the amount of energy needed per unit output will also decrease as
processes become more efficient. For example, DOE projects natural gas consumption in the
commercial sector to rise from 3.392 quadrillion Btu in 1996 to 3.997 quadrillion Btu in 2020.
Over this same time-frame, DOE projects commercial square footage to increase from 59.5
billion square feet to 72.9 billion square feet. To reflect the projected change in natural gas
consumed per square foot of commercial building space, natural gas energy intensity factors were
calculated for 1996 and each projection year. For example, 0.2475 quadrillion Btu/square foot of
natural gas is projected to be consumed in 2020 versus 0.2551 quadrillion Btu/square foot in
1996. For all commercial sector natural gas source categories, the BEA commercial sector
growth factors are multiplied by 0.97, which represents the ratio of the 2020 energy intensity
factor for commercial sector natural gas to the 1996 energy intensity factor for commercial
natural gas. Similar ratios were calculated and applied for other fuels used in the commercial
sector, and for all fuels used in the residential and industrial energy sectors. These adjustments
are based on those used in the NET projections (EPA, 2000a).
For the animal husbandry SCCs displayed in Table IV-2, alternative methods were used to
project emissions growth. For the majority of these SCCs (all except SCCs 2805001000,
2805020000, and 2805025000), emissions growth was based on projections of the number of
IV-4
-------
animals in each category that were developed based on national data from the 1987, 1992, and
1997 Census of Agriculture (USDA, 1997). For these SCCs, growth factors are based on the
increase in the number of animals between the base year and 2007, 2020, and 2030 as estimated
from linear extrapolations of the Census data. Because linear extrapolation of the Census'
number of sheep and lambs yielded negative growth factors that were believed to be unrealistic,
the number of these animals was projected using an exponential trend function that provided
more realistic growth factors. The growth factor for total livestock production
(SCC 2805000000) was computed as the median of the growth factors for the individual SCCs
that comprise this total category.
For the following three animal husbandry source categories, growth factors were based on
more comprehensive historical and projections data available from the USD A:
• Beef Cattle Feedlots (SCC 2805001000);
Total Cattle/Calves (SCC 2805020000); and
Hogs and Pigs (SCC 2805025000).
For this effort, animal population data specific to each of these source categories were compiled
for 1970-1999. The USDA publishes estimates of the total number of cattle/calves; total number
of hogs and pigs; and total cattle in feedlots for historical years (USDA, 2000a). The USDA also
projects the inventory of total cattle, total beef cows, and total hogs for each year over the
1998-2009 period (USDA, 2000b). It is important to note that the categories included in the
USDA projections series do not match the emission source categories as closely as the categories
in the USDA historical data series. For example, USDA projections are available for total beef
cows, not cattle in feedlots.
Because the USDA projections data represent somewhat different animal categories than the
emission source categories and available historical data, the future animal counts were
normalized on the same basis as the historic animal counts by computing the ratio of a source
category's animal count in each future year to the animal count for 1999 as reported in the
USDA's projections series. To estimate the future number of animals in each source category,
these ratios are applied to the actual animal count for 1999, which is the latest year for which
USDA historical data are available.
After projecting these animal counts through 2009, the historical and forecast series for each
source category were graphed to determine the functional form that best represented the data.
Because the major fluctuations in the historical data for each category contradicted the clear trend
in the USDA projection series for each category, the post-2009 trend in each category was
identified based on the normalized projected animal counts for 2000-2009. The 2020 and 2030
animal counts were estimated by extrapolating to each year based on the following functional
forms identified from the 2000-2009 data:
• Beef Cattle Feedlots-linear (stable slow decline in number);
Total Cattle/Calves-linear (stable slow increase in number); and
• Hogs and Pigs-logarithmic (declining rate of increase in number).
IV-5
-------
To compute the growth factors for each source category, the estimated animal counts in 2007,
2020, and 2030 were divided by the actual animal counts in 1996.
Table IV-2
Animal Husbandry Categories and Growth Assumptions
Source Classification
Code (SCC)
2710020030
2805000000
2805001000
2805020000
2805025000
2805030000
2805040000
2805045001
SCC Description
Natural Sources Biogenic Horses and Ponies
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Livestock Total
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Livestock Beef
Cattle Feedlots Total
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal
Husbandry Cattle and Calves Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal
Husbandry Hogs and Pigs Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal
Husbandry Poultry -Chickens Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal
Husbandry Sheep and Lambs Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal
Husbandry Goats Composite
Growth Function
Linear extrapolation
Median of growth factors from
individual SCCs below
Linear extrapolation
Linear extrapolation
Logarithmic extrapolation
Linear extrapolation
Exponential extrapolation
Linear extrapolation
Reference: USDA, 1997.
2. Control Assumptions
VOC area source controls were applied for federal initiatives, such as VOC content limits for
consumer solvents, Title HI MACT assumptions, and Title IRACT assumptions that were not
applied in the 1996 base year inventory. These controls are listed in Table IV-3.
Additional controls were applied for residential wood combustion and Stage II VOC for
gasoline service stations. Table IV-4 shows the control efficiencies applied for residential wood
combustion by pollutant (VOC, PM10, PM25, and CO) for each of the future year inventories.
Residential wood combustion control efficiencies were derived from emission factors obtained
from AP-42, a 4 percent per year growth rate for catalytic wood stoves starting in 1988, and an
estimate of the control efficiencies applied in the 1996 base year inventory.
Table IV-5 shows the control efficiencies applied to account for VOC reductions associated
with onboard vapor recovery systems and Stage n controls at gasoline service stations. Vehicle
refueling VOC emissions were estimated using different methods for counties required to have
Stage II VOC controls versus counties not required to have Stage II VOC controls. Serious and
above ozone nonatttainment areas are required to implement Stage II (at the nozzle) vapor
recovery systems under Title I of the CAA. Table IV-6 shows the 227 counties required to have
IV-6
-------
Stage II controls. However, since onboard vapor recovery systems on gasoline-fueled vehicles
are required in 1998 and later vehicles in all areas, independent of attainment status, higher
control efficiencies are estimated for counties where Stage II refueling controls are required.
Control efficiencies were calculated using weighted gram per gallon emission factors determined
using a series of MOBILESa runs. These runs also accounted for the expected effect of onboard
vapor recovery systems on future year evaporative emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles.
Table IV-3
Area Source VOC Control Measure Assumptions
Control Measure and Affected SCCs
VOC
Percentage
Reduction
VOC Rule
Effectiveness
Federal Control Measures (National)
Consumer Solvents 25
2465000000,2465100000,2465200000, 2465600000,
2456800000
Architectural and Industrial Maintenance Coatings 25
2401001000, 2401001999, 2401100000,2401008000
Residential Wood Combustion See Table
2104008000,2104008001,2104008010, 2104008030, IV-4
2104008050,2104008051
Onboard Vapor Recovery Systems; and Stage II for Gasoline See Table
Service Stations IV-5
2501060100,2501060101,2501060102
100
100
Title III MACT (National)
Wood Furniture Surface Coating
2401020000
Aerospace Surface Coating
2401075000
Marine Vessel Surface Coating (Shipbuilding)
2401080000
Halogenated Solvent Cleaners (Cold Cleaning)
2415300000, 2415305000, 2415310000,2415320000,
2415325000, 2415330000,2415335000,2415340000,
2415345000, 2415355000, 2415360000,2415365000
Autobody Refinishing
2401005000
Petroleum Refinery Fugitives
2306000000
Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry (SOCMI)
Fugitives (Hazardous Organic NESHAP)
2301040000
Motor Vehicle Surface Coating
2401070000
Metal Product Surface Coating
2401040000,2401045000, 2401050000
30
60
24
43**
37
60***
oy ****
36
36
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
IV-7
-------
Table IV-3 (continued)
voc
Percentage VOC Rule
Control Measure and Affected SCCs Reduction Effectiveness
Wood Product Surface Coating 36 100
2401015000
Open Top & Conveyorized Degreasing 31 100
2415100000, 2415105000, 2415110000,2415120000,
2415125000, 2415130000,2415135000,2415140000,
2415145000, 2415199000,2415200000
Publicly Owned Treatment Works (POTWs) 80 100
2630000000 to 2630020000
Metal Furniture & Appliances Surface Coating 36 100
2401025000,2401060000
Machinery, Railroad Surface Coating 36 100
2401055000,2401085000, 2401090000
Electronic Coating 36 100
2401065000
Title I RACT
Petroleum Dry Cleaning 44 80
2420000370, 2420010370
Paper Surface Coating 78 80
2401030000
NOTES:
* The efficiency of onboard vapor recovery systems varies depending on whether stage II vapor recovery systems are in place. It
is determined based on MOBILESb emission factors.
** Overall control efficiency of 63% with 35% already applied in base year.
*** Overall control efficiency of 78% with 43% already applied in base year.
**** Overall control efficiency of 60% with 37% already applied in base year.
-------
Table IV-4
Residential Wood Combustion Control Efficiency
Assumptions by Pollutant and Future Year Inventory
Pollutant 2007 Percent Reduction 2020 Percent Reduction 2030 Percent Reduction
VOC 49 72 72
PM10and 33 51 51
PM25a
CO 37 55 55
a All residential wood combustion PM emissions are assumed to be less than or equal to PM25.
Table IV-5
Vehicle Refueling VOC Control Efficiency
Assumptions Included in the Future Year Inventories
Does County
Have Stage II 2007 Percent 2020 Percent 2030 Percent
Controls? Reduction Reduction Reduction
No 52.0 82.4 85.8
Yes 81.7 87.6 88.3
IV-9
-------
Table IV-6
Counties with Stage II Controls
State
Arizona
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Delaware
Delaware
Delaware
Dist. Columbia
Florida
Florida
Florida
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
County
Maricopa
Alameda
Contra Costa
El Dorado
Fresno
Kern
Kings
Los Angeles
Madera
Marin
Merced
Monterey
Napa
Orange
Placer
Riverside
Sacramento
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Joaquin
San Mateo
Santa Barbara
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz
Solano
Sonoma
Stanislaus
Sutler
Tulare
Ventura
Yolo
Fairfield
Hartford
Litchfield
Middlesex
New Haven
New London
Tolland
Windham
Kent
New Castle
Sussex
Washington
B reward
Dade
Palm Beach
Cherokee
Clayton
Cobb
Coweta
De Kalb
Douglas
Fayette
Forsyth
Fulton
Gwinnett
Henry
Paulding
State FIPS
Code
04
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
10
10
10
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
County
FIPS Code
013
001
013
017
019
029
031
037
039
041
047
053
055
059
061
065
067
069
071
073
077
081
083
085
087
095
097
099
101
107
111
113
001
003
005
007
009
011
013
015
001
003
005
001
011
025
099
057
063
067
077
089
097
113
117
121
135
151
223
IV-10
-------
Table IV-6 (continued)
State
Georgia
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Nevada
County
Rockdale
Cook
Du Page
Grundy
Kane
Kendall
Lake
McHenry
Will
Clark
Floyd
Lake
Porter
Jefferson
Ascension Parish
East Baton Rouge Parish
Iberville Parish
Livingston Parish
Pointe Coupee Parish
West Baton Rouge Parish
Anne Arundel
Baltimore
Calvert
Carroll
Cecil
Charles
Frederick
Harford
Howard
Montgomery
Prince Georges
Baltim
Barnstable
Berkshire
Bristol
Dukes
Essex
Franklin
Hampden
Hampshire
Middlesex
Nantucket
Norfolk
Plymouth
Suffolk
Worcester
Kent
Livingston
Macomb
Monroe
Oakland
Ottawa
St. Clair
Washtenaw
Wayne
Franklin
Jefferson
St. Charles
St. Louis
St. Lo
Clark
State FIPS
Code
13
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
21
22
22
22
22
22
22
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
29
29
29
29
29
32
County
FIPS Code
247
031
043
063
089
093
097
111
197
019
043
089
127
111
005
033
047
063
077
121
003
005
009
013
015
017
021
025
027
031
033
510
001
003
005
007
009
011
013
015
017
019
021
023
025
027
081
093
099
115
125
139
147
161
163
071
099
183
189
510
003
IV-11
-------
Table IV-6 (continued)
State County
Nevada Washoe
New Hampshire Hillsborough
New Hampshire Merrimack
New Hampshire Rockingham
New Hampshire Strafford
New Jersey Atlantic
New Jersey Bergen
New Jersey Burlington
New Jersey Camden
New Jersey Cape May
New Jersey Cumberland
New Jersey Essex
New Jersey Gloucester
New Jersey Hudson
New Jersey Hunterdon
New Jersey Mercer
New Jersey Middlesex
New Jersey Monmouth
New Jersey Morris
New Jersey Ocean
New Jersey Passaic
New Jersey Salem
New Jersey Somerset
New Jersey Sussex
New Jersey Union
New Jersey Warren
New York Bronx
New York Kings
New York Nassau
New York New York
New York Orange
New York Queens
New York Richmond
New York Rockland
New York Suffolk
New York Westchester
Ohio Ashtabula
Ohio Clark
Ohio Cuyahoga
Ohio Geauga
Ohio Greene
Ohio Lake
Ohio Lorain
Ohio Lucas
Ohio Medina
Ohio Miami
Ohio Montgomery
Ohio Portage
Ohio Summit
Ohio Wood
Pennsylvania Bucks
Pennsylvania Chester
Pennsylvania Delaware
Pennsylvania Montgomery
Pennsylvania Philadelphia
Rhode Island Bristol
Rhode Island Kent
Rhode Island Newport
Rhode Island Providence
Rhode Island Washington
Tennessee Davidson
State FIPS
Code
32
33
33
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
42
42
42
44
44
44
44
44
47
County
FIPS Code
031
011
013
015
017
001
003
005
007
009
011
013
015
017
019
021
023
025
027
029
031
033
035
037
039
041
005
047
059
061
071
081
085
087
103
119
007
023
035
055
057
085
093
095
103
109
113
133
153
173
017
029
045
091
101
001
003
005
007
009
037
IV-12
-------
Table IV-6 (continued)
State
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
County
Rutherford
Sumner
Williamson
Wilson
Brazoria
Chambers
Collin
Dallas
Denton
El Paso
Fort Bend
Galveston
Hardin
Harris
Jefferson
Liberty
Montgomery
Orange
Tarrant
Waller
Arlington
Charles City
Chesterfield
Fairfax
Hanover
Henrico
Loudoun
Prince William
Stafford
Alexandria
Colonial Heights
Fairfax
Falls Church
Hopewell
Manassas
Manassas Park
Richmond
Kenosha
Kewaunee
Manitowoc
Milwaukee
Ozaukee
Racine
Sheboygan
Washington
Waukesha
State FIPS
Code
47
47
47
47
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
County
FIPS Code
149
165
187
189
039
071
085
113
121
141
157
167
199
201
245
291
339
361
439
473
013
036
041
059
085
087
107
153
179
510
570
600
610
670
683
685
760
059
061
071
079
089
101
117
131
133
IV-13
-------
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES
Table IV-7 shows the mass and emissions processor input files prepared for area sources.
Note that nonroad emissions (discussed in Chapter V) are also included in these inventory files.
The control scenario only affects nonroad sources, as discussed in Chapter V.
1. Mass Emission Inventories
The structure for the area source mass emission inventory files is shown in Table IV-8. The
emissions processor input files were derived from the mass emission inventories. The only
change to emissions is the application of the crustal PM factor. This factor accounts for the fact
that only a portion of the crustal PM emissions are transportable. For the EPS 2.5 emissions
processor input files, a factor of 25 percent was applied to PM10 and PM25 emissions for the
SCCs listed in Table IV-9 to simulate the transportable component of these emissions. In
addition, PM10 and PM25 emissions from wind erosion of natural geogenic sources (SCCs
2730100000 [total] and 2730100001 [dust devils]) were excluded from the modeling files.
2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files
The EPS 2.5 emissions processor input file structure is detailed in Table IV-10. Annual
emissions estimates are provided in the EPS 2.5 emissions processor input files.
3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files
The EMS-95 emissions processor input files include typical SSD VOC, NOX, and CO
emissions for ozone modeling. The structure for the area source EMS-95 input files is given in
Table IV-11. Two EMS-95 inventory files were prepared for the 1996 base year inventory, and
the 2007, 2020, and 2030 base and control case inventories. One file provides area source and
nonroad emissions at the 10-digit SCC level. The other file provides nonroad emissions at the
7-digit SCC level and area source emissions at the 10-digit SCC level.
IV-14
-------
Table IV-7
Area/Nonroad Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files
Year
1996
Scenario
Base
Mass
AR96MS1H.DBF
File Name
EPS 2.5
EMS-95
Comments
AR96MX1H.DBF
Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no
wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic
sources.
NR96MS1H.DBF AN96EP1H.TXT AN96EM1H.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and
nonroad emissions.
N96MS1H7.DBF
AN96EM17.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for
nonroad sources.
2007 Base
AR07MS2H.DBF
AR07MX2H.DBF
Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no
wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic
sources.
N7MS1HB.DBF AN7EP2HB.TXT AN7EM1HB.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and
nonroad emissions.
N7MS1HB7.DBF
AN7EM1 B7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for
nonroad sources.
Control N7MS1 HC.DBF AN7EP2HC.TXT AN7EM1 HC.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and
nonroad emissions.
N7MS1HC7.DBF
AN7EM1 C7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for
nonroad sources.
2020 Base
AR20MS2H.DBF
AR20MX2H.DBF
Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no
wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic
sources.
N2MS1HB.DBF AN2EP2HB.TXT AN2EM1HB.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and
nonroad emissions.
N2MS1HB7.DBF
AN2EM1 B7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for
nonroad sources.
Control N2MS1 HC.DBF AN2EP2HC.TXT AN2EM1 HC.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and
nonroad emissions.
N2MS1HC7.DBF
AN2EM1 C7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCC detail for
nonroad sources.
2030 Base
AR30MS3H.DBF
AR30MX3H.DBF
Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no
wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic
sources.
N3MS1HB.DBF AN3EP3HB.TXT AN3EM1HB.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and
nonroad emissions.
N3MS1HB7.DBF
AN3EM1 B7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCC detail for
nonroad sources.
Control N3MS1 HC.DBF AN3EP3HC.TXT AN3EM1 HC.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and
nonroad emissions.
N3MS1HC7.DBF
AN3EM1 C7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCC detail for
nonroad sources.
IV-15
-------
Table IV-8
Area/Nonroad Mass Emissions Inventory File Structure
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
sec
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
SOA_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOX_OSD
CO_OSD
SO2_OSD
PM10_OSD
PM25JDSD
NH3_OSD
SOA_OSD
VOC_EMF
NOX_EMF
CO_EMF
SO2_EMF
PM10_EMF
PM25_EMF
NH3_EMF
VOC_CE
NOX_CE
CO_CE
S02_CE
PM10_CE
PM25_CE
NH3_CE
VOC RE
Type
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
Decimals
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
6
6
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
Description
FIPS State code
FIPS county code
sec
Annual VOC [tons per year (tpy)]
Annual NOX (tpy)
Annual CO (tpy)
Annual SO2 (tpy)
Annual PM10 (tpy)
Annual PM25 (tpy)
Annual NH3 (tpy)
Annual SOA (tpy)
OSD VOC (tpd)
OSD NOX (tpd)
OSD CO (tpd)
OSD SO2 (tpd)
OSD PM10 (tpd)
OSD PM25 (tpd)
OSD NH3 (tpd)
OSD SOA (tpd)
VOC Emission Factor
NOX Emission Factor
CO Emission Factor
SO2 Emission Factor
PM10 Emission Factor
PM25 Emission Factor
NH3 Emission Factor
VOC Control Efficiency
NOX Control Efficiency
CO Control Efficiency
SO2 Control Efficiency
PM10 Control Efficiency
PM25 Control Efficiency
NH3 Control Efficiency
VOC Rule Effectiveness
IV-16
-------
Table IV-8 (continued)
Variable
Type
Length Decimals Description
NOX_RE
CO_RE
SO2_RE
PM10_RE
PM25_RE
NH3_RE
VOC_RP
NOX_RP
CO_RP
SO2_RP
PM10_RP
PM25_RP
NH3 RP
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
3
3
3
3
3
3
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
0 NOX Rule Effectiveness
0 CO Rule Effectiveness
0 SO2 Rule Effectiveness
0 PM10 Rule Effectiveness
0 PM25 Rule Effectiveness
0 NH3 Rule Effectiveness
2 VOC Rule Penetration
2 NOX Rule Penetration
2 CO Rule Penetration
2 SO2 Rule Penetration
2 PM10 Rule Penetration
2 PM25 Rule Penetration
2 NH3 Rule Penetration
IV-17
-------
Table IV-9
Source Categories to which Crustal Factor was Applied to PM10 and PM25
Emissions in EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files
Sector/SCC Source Category Description
Mobile Sources/Aircraft
227508xxxx Unpaved Airstrips
Mobile Sources/Paved Roads
2294xxxxxx Paved Roads
Mobile Sources/Unpaved Roads
2296xxxxxx Unpaved Roads
Industrial Processes/Construction (SIC codes 15-17)
23110001xx All Processes: Wind Erosion
23110101xx General Building Construction: Wind Erosion
23110201xx Heavy Construction: Wind Erosion
23110301xx Road Construction: Wind Erosion
23110401xx Special Trade Construction: Wind Erosion
Miscellaneous Area Sources/Agriculture Production - Crops
28010xxxxx Agriculture - Crops
28017xxxxx Fertilizer Application
Miscellaneous Area Sources/Agriculture Production - Livestock
2805xxxxxx Agriculture Production - Livestock
IV-18
-------
Table IV-10
Area/Nonroad EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure
Variable
Type
Length
Decimals Description
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
SCC
VOC
NOX
CO
S02
PM10
PM25
SOA
NH3
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
2
3
10
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
0 FIPS State Code
0 FIPS county Code
0 AMS Source Category Code
4 Annual VOC Emissions (tpy)
4 Annual NOX Emissions (tpy)
4 Annual CO Emissions (tpy)
4 Annual SO2 Emissions (tpy)
4 Annual PM10 Emissions (tpy)
4 Annual PM25 Emissions (tpy)
4 Annual SOA Emissions (tpy)
4 Annual NH3 Emissions (tpy)
IV-19
-------
Table IV-11
Area/Nonroad EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure
Variable
Area File:
STID
CYID
ASCT
POLID
ACEF
ALEF
ACEE
ALEE
PCEC
SCEC
CEEF
ESTT
Temporal File:
STID
CYID
ASCT
PRRT
ACUN
DEC
JAN
FEE
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
WIN
SPR
SUM
FAL
HOURS
DAYS
WEEKS
DAYYEAR
HOURYEAR
Type
N
N
C
C
N
N
N
N
C
C
N
C
N
N
C
N
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
15
5
13
13
13
13
5
5
7
2
2
3
15
13
15
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
4
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Area Source Category
Pollutant ID
Actual Emission Factor (tons/process unit)
Allowable Emission Factor (tons/process unit)
Actual Emissions (tons)
Allowable Emissions (tons)
Primary Control Equipment
Secondary Control Equipment
Control Equipment Efficiency (%)
Temporal Basis (AA or AD)
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Area Source Category
Annual Process Rate (process units/year)
Activity Units
Fractional December Throughput
Fractional January Throughput
Fractional February Throughput
Fractional March Throughput
Fractional April Throughput
Fractional May Throughput
Fractional June Throughput
Fractional July Throughput
Fractional August Throughput
Fractional September Throughput
Fractional October Throughput
Fractional November Throughput
Winter Throughput (Dec - Feb) (%)
Spring Throughput (Mar- May) (%)
Summer Throughput (Jun - Aug) (%)
Fall Throughput (Sep - Nov) (%)
Code Value for Hourly Operation
Code Value for Daily Operation
Weeks of Operation per Year (weeks/year)
Days of Operation per Year (days/year)
Hours of Operation per Year (hours/year)
IV-20
-------
CHAPTER V
NONROAD SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
County-level emission estimates for 1996 for the majority of nonroad sources were
developed using EPA's draft NONROAD model. Emission estimates for VOC, NOX, CO, SO2,
PM10, and PM2 5 are reported by the model. The NONROAD model does not estimate NH3 and
SO A emissions; therefore, these emissions were calculated outside the model. Aircraft,
commercial marine, and locomotives are not presently included in the NONROAD model, and
the procedures to develop emission estimates for these categories are discussed separately.
1. NONROAD Model Equipment Categories
The NONROAD model estimates pollutant emissions for the following general equipment
categories: (1) agricultural; (2) airport service; (3) light commercial; (4) construction and
mining; (5) industrial; (6) lawn and garden; (7) logging; (8) pleasure craft; (9) railway
maintenance; and (10) recreational equipment. These applications are further classified
according to fuel and engine type [diesel, gasoline 2-stroke, gasoline 4-stroke, compressed
natural gas (CNG), and liquified petroleum gas (LPG)].
The base year nonroad mass emissions inventory for the HDD rulemaking was developed
from two emission inventories including: 1) an existing 1996 county-level inventory, based on
EPA's April 1999 draft NONROAD model; and 2) an updated national inventory, based on
EPA's June 2000 draft version of the NONROAD model.
To develop the original 1996 county-level inventory, NONROAD model input files were
prepared for each State to account for the average statewide temperatures and Reid vapor
pressure (RVP) for four seasons, including summer, fall, winter, and spring. Input files were also
generated to account for county-level differences in RVP, fuel characteristics due to reformulated
gasoline (RFG) and oxygenated fuel programs, and Stage U controls. Emissions calculated for
counties with fuel characteristic and control data that varied from statewide average values
replaced emissions for these same counties generated by running the default input files. Typical
SSD emissions were estimated by dividing total summer season emissions by 92 days.
This 1996 county-level emissions inventory was then updated to reflect revisions made to
the NONROAD model since the April 1999 version. Using the June 2000 draft NONROAD
model, national, seasonal emissions were generated at the SCC level for the following pollutants:
VOC, NOX, SO2, CO, PM10, and PM2 5. The results for three seasonal runs (i.e., summer, winter,
fall/spring combined) were summed to calculate annual emissions. Additional NONROAD
model runs were performed to estimate typical summer weekday emissions as well. To account
V-l
-------
for lower diesel fuel sulfur levels in California, separate runs were performed for this State for
diesel-fueled equipment SCCs. Tables V-la and V-lb present a summary of the input values
used for the national NONROAD model runs.
TableV-1a
Temperature and RVP Inputs for National NONROAD Model Runs1
Season
Summer
Fall/Spring
Winter
Typical Summer Weekday
Input2
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
Value
8.1
62
82
72
9.7
43
63
53
13.1
24
44
34
8.1
62
82
72
1 The input values presented were the same for both base and control cases and for all years. The
control case input values were the same for all three projection years (no control case was developed for
1996).
2 Values for minimum, maximum, and average temperature are expressed in degrees Fahrenheit (°F).
Table V-1b
Diesel Fuel Sulfur Input Values for National NONROAD Model Runs1
Fuel Sulfur, ppm
Year
1996
2007
2020
2030
Base case2
2527
2654
2733
2770
Control case3
Not applicable
2579
2667
2708
1 Diesel fuel sulfur does not change seasonally. NONROAD runs were done using fuel sulfur inputs of
2859 ppm and 2808 ppm, for the base and control case, respectively. SO2 output values, but not PM,
were then adjusted to represent the values as listed for each year.
2 For California base case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 120 ppm was used for all seasons.
3 For California control case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 103 ppm was used for all seasons.
V-2
-------
SCC-specific ratios were calculated by dividing the updated national, annual emission
estimates by the previous 1996 national values (i.e., based on the April 1999 version of
NONROAD). County-level emissions were then calculated by multiplying each record in the
existing 1996 inventory by the appropriate ratio for each SCC. In this manner, the county-level
distribution of the existing 1996 inventory is normalized to the updated national, SCC-level
totals for 1996. California diesel equipment emissions were also updated. Based on the results
of the separate California NONROAD model runs, state-level, SCC emission ratios were
calculated by dividing the updated California diesel emission estimates by the previous 1996
California values. These ratios were applied to existing county-level records for California, and
the resulting emissions were incorporated into the 1996 mass emissions inventory.
Similar to annual emission ratios, SSD ratios were first developed by dividing updated SSD
emissions by previous SSD emissions. However, when SSD ratios were applied to certain
records, new SSD emission values were calculated that were larger than the corresponding
annual emissions. This was occurring because SSD values had been calculated differently in the
April 1999 data base (i.e., they had previously been calculated by dividing summer season
emissions by 92, as opposed to performing separate runs for a typical summer day). To adjust
this result, and to ensure that the total national SSD emissions were equivalent to what EPA's
Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) had originally provided, county-level SSD
emissions were calculated by multiplying national SSD emissions by the ratio of county level
annual emissions to national level annual emissions. This is shown in the formula below:
SSDcounty = SSDnational * (Annua>'county * Annua>'national
Additional adjustments to the 1996 NONROAD emissions inventory included: 1) applied
additional factors to SO2 emissions to account for the true fuel sulfur level as a result of low
sulfur diesel fuel spillover (i.e., as shown in Table V-lb); and 2) revised county-level emissions
for air conditioning (AC)/refrigeration and railway maintenance in Suffolk County, MA to
correct an error in the original equipment populations used to estimate emissions.
Finally, new SCCs have been added to the most recent version of NONROAD. Since the
April 1999 county-level data base did not include these SCCs, surrogate SCCs were assigned to
the new SCCs to use in allocating national emissions to the county-level. The additional SCCs
and each corresponding surrogate SCC are shown in Table V-2.
2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and
Locomotives
Base year aircraft and locomotive emissions were taken from the existing 1996 NET
inventory (EPA, 2000a).
Hydrocarbon (HC), NOX, CO, and total PM national emission estimates for commercial
marine diesel engines were provided by OTAQ. VOC was calculated by multiplying HC
emissions by a factor of 1.053. PM10 was assumed to be equivalent to PM, and PM2 5 was
estimated by multiplying PM10 emissions by a factor of 0.92. The new national estimates
V-3
-------
Table V-2
Surrogate SCC Assignments for New SCCs in June 2000 NONROAD Model
Additional
SCCs
2260002054
2260005050
2265001020
2265007015
2267005055
2268002081
2268003020
2268003040
2268003070
2268005050
2268005055
2268006015
Description
Gasoline, 2-Stroke Construction
Equipment Crushing/Processing
Equipment
Gasoline, 2-Stroke Farm
Equipment Hydro Power Units
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Recreational
Vehicles Snowmobiles
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Logging
Equipment Skidders
LPG Farm Equipment Other
Agricultural Equipment
CNG Construction Equipment
Other Construction Equipment
CNG Industrial Equipment
Forklifts
CNG Industrial Equipment Other
General Industrial Equipment
CNG Industrial Equipment
Terminal Tractors
CNG Farm Equipment Hydro
Power Units
CNG Farm Equipment Other
Agricultural Equipment
CNG Light Commercial Air
Compressors
Surrogate
SCC
2265002054
2265005050
2260001020
2270007015
2265005055
2265002081
2265003020
2265003040
2265003070
2265005050
2265005055
2265006015
Description
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Construction
Equipment Crushing/Processing
Equipment
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm
Equipment Hydro Power Units
Gasoline, 2-Stroke Recreational
Vehicles Snowmobiles
Diesel Logging Equipment
Skidders
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm
Equipment Other Agricultural
Equipment
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Construction
Equipment Other Construction
Equipment
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Industrial
Equipment Forklifts
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Industrial
Equipment Other General Industrial
Equipment
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Industrial
Equipment Terminal Tractors
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm
Equipment Hydro Power Units
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm
Equipment Other Agricultural
Equipment
Gasoline, 4-Stroke Light
Commercial Air Compressors
were distributed to counties using the geographic distribution in the existing 1996 NET data
base.
3. Methodologies for NH3 and SOA
Ammonia emissions were adjusted based on updated national, SCC-level fuel consumption
estimates for diesel and gasoline engines, as reported by the June 2000 draft version of
NONROAD. Fuel consumption estimates were not available for LPG- and CNG-fueled
equipment. As with the criteria pollutant emission estimates, SCC-specific ratios were
developed by dividing updated fuel consumption values by previous fuel consumption values.
NH3 emissions for California were also recalculated using updated diesel fuel consumption
values generated for California-specific runs. Once a county-level data base of fuel consumption
was developed, emission factors provided by OTAQ were then applied to these activity data to
V-4
-------
estimate NH3 emissions. The emission factors were derived primarily from light-duty on-road
vehicle emission measurements, and extrapolated to nonroad engines on a fuel consumption
basis. NH3 emissions for diesel engines were calculated by multiplying diesel fuel consumption
by an emission factor of 165.86 milligrams/gallon. NH3 emissions from gasoline engines
(without catalysts) were calculated by multiplying gasoline consumption by an emission factor of
153.47 milligrams/gallon.
For aircraft, commercial marine, and locomotive categories, national fuel consumption
estimates for 1996 were obtained from various sources. Jet fuel and aviation gasoline
consumption for general aviation and commercial aircraft were obtained from the "FAA Aviation
Forecasts Fiscal Years, 1998-2009," (FAA, 1998a). For the aircraft categories, NH3 emission
factors developed for diesel engines were applied to all fuel consumption estimates, since
aviation gasoline consumption was determined to be relatively small compared to jet fuel, and
the aircraft SCCs are not broken down by fuel type. Diesel consumption estimates for
locomotives were obtained from "Locomotive Emission Standards - Regulatory Support
Document (RSD)," (EPA, 1997). For commercial marine, data for distillate and residual fuel oil
were reported in "Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales," (EIA, 1996).
Secondary organic aerosol emissions were calculated by applying the appropriate fractional
aerosol coefficient to annual and SSD VOC emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). Default
assignments were made to new nonroad SCCs that had not been previously assigned SOA
fractions.
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
The methods for developing base case and control scenario projection year inventories for
nonroad sources are described in this section. Table V-3 provides a summary of the projection
methods, as well as growth indicators, used for each nonroad equipment category.
1. Nonroad Model Equipment Categories
For NONROAD model categories, emission estimates for projection years were developed
using a method comparable to that for the base year. First, three seasonal (i.e., summer, winter,
and fall/spring combined) NONROAD model runs were performed at the national level.
Seasonal runs accounted for differences in average seasonal temperature, as well as RVP.
Second, year-specific ratios were calculated by dividing national SCC-level emission estimates
for 2007, 2020, and 2030 by the 1996 national values. County-level estimates were then
calculated for 2007, 2020, and 2030 by multiplying each ratio times the 1996 county-level
emissions inventory. In this manner, the county-level distribution assumed for the 1996
inventory is normalized to the updated national, SCC-level totals for each projection year. As
with the base year, separate NONROAD model runs were done for California diesel-fueled
SCCs. Additional runs were also performed to estimate typical summer weekday emissions for
each projection year.
V-5
-------
Table V-3
Growth Indicators/Projection Methods for Nonroad Sources
Nonroad SCC
2260xxxxxx
2265xxxxxx
2267xxxxxx
2268xxxxxx
2270xxxxxx
2282xxxxxx
2285xxx015
SCC Description
2-stroke gasoline
4-stroke gasoline
CNG
LPG
Diesel
Recreational marine
Railway maintenance
Growth Indicator
Not applicable1
2275050000, 2275060000 General Aviation and Air Taxis
2275020000, 2275070000 Commercial Aircraft and Auxiliary
Power Units
Landing-Takeoff Operations
(LTOs) for total aircraft operations
2275001xxx
Military Aircraft
992 - Federal, Military
2275085xxx
Unpaved Airstrips
SIC 45 - Air Transportation
2275900xxx
Aircraft Refueling
SIC 45 - Air Transportation
2280002xxx
Commercial Marine - Diesel Vessels SIC 44 - Water Transportation2
2280001 xxx, 2280003xxx, Commercial Marine - Coal, Residual SIC 44 - Water Transportation
2280004xxx Oil, and Gas-fired Vessels
2283xxxxxx
Military Marine Vessels
992 - Federal, Military
2285xxxxxx
Locomotives
No growth3
1 Projection year emission estimates were derived from national NONROAD model runs allocated to counties
based on the geographic distribution of a 1996 county-level inventory, developed from the April 1999 draft version
of NONROAD.
2 SO2 and NH3 emissions were projected using growth factors; projection year estimates for all other pollutants
provided by OTAQ.
3 SO2 and NH3 emissions for projection years assumed to remain constant at 1996 uncontrolled levels; controlled
projection year estimates for all other pollutants provided by OTAQ.
In addition to a base case scenario, control case emission inventories were developed for
each projection year to account for the effects of proposed HDDV reductions in diesel sulfur
content. Table V-lb presents the diesel fuel sulfur values assumed for the base case and control
case scenario. Separate runs were performed for California to account for the lower diesel fuel
sulfur content in this State (i.e., 120 ppm for the base case, and 103 ppm for the control
scenario).
Similar adjustments were made to projection year NONROAD model inventories as were
made for the 1996 base year nonroad inventory. These adjustments included: (1) calculating
county SSD emissions by multiplying national SSD emissions by the ratio of county to national
annual emissions, for each SCC; (2) applying additional factors to SO2 emissions to account for
the true fuel sulfur level as a result of low sulfur diesel fuel spillover (i.e., as shown in
Table V-lb); and (3) revising emissions for AC/refrigeration and railway maintenance in Suffolk
County, MA to correct an error in the original equipment populations.
V-6
-------
a. Growth Assumptions
Nonroad category emissions have typically been projected using economic indicators that are
believed to correlate to nonroad equipment activity. For example, nonroad agricultural
equipment emissions have been grown in the past using BEA GSP projections for SIC code 01,
which corresponds to the farm industry. However, instead of using economic indicators to
project emissions or nonroad activity, the current version of the NONROAD model predicts
future year nonroad equipment populations by extrapolating
from a linear regression of historical equipment populations. Because total activity is never
directly measured, the historical trend in population must be used as a surrogate. A time-series
analysis using historic equipment populations is believed to better reflect market trends within
each sector (e.g., a shift from gasoline-fueled equipment to diesel-fueled equipment). Accurately
estimating the relative distribution of different engine types in the future is important since diesel
and gasoline engines have distinct emission characteristics. This approach, however, is not
planned to be used for all equipment types in the final version of the NONROAD model. Some
exceptions include oil field equipment and aircraft ground support equipment, which will rely on
BEA GSP data and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) LTO data, respectively.
b. Control Assumptions
The NONROAD model accounts for the effect of Federal nonroad engine emission standards
which are final, or proposed standards soon expected to be final. The emission levels associated
with compression-ignition (CI) and spark-ignition (SI) engine standards are incorporated into
emission factors, which are then applied to future year nonroad equipment populations. The
control programs accounted for by the NONROAD model include: (1) Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3
CI standards for diesel engines greater than 50 horsepower (hp); (2) Tier 1 and Tier 2 CI
standards for diesel engines below 50 hp; (3) Phase I and Phase 2 of the SI standards for gasoline
engines less than 25 hp; (4) recreational SI marine engine controls.
td
engiges subject to the Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 standards are presented in Table V-4. Base year
andJSontrolled steady-state emission factors for SI engines below 25 hp (19 kilowatts) are
presorted in Table V-5. Additional details on the control levels reflected in NONROAD for
futufi£ years for these categories, as well as SI recreational marine engines, are presented in
tech^cal reports that serve as supporting documentation for NONROAD model inputs (EPA,
199£§and EPA, 1999a). Compression-ignition engine emission factor values listed in Table V-4
reflect revisions made to the NONROAD model since the April 1999 draft version, which are
The impact of RFG in the appropriate counties is reflected in the 1996 base year county-level
inventory, in that the fuel RVP and percent oxygen were adjusted, as described in section V.A. 1,
for counties subject to RFG and oxygenated fuels requirements. No further adjustments were
made to account for the use of RFG in future years.
V-7
-------
Table V-4
Steady-State Emission Factors for Cl Engines in the NONROAD Model
Engine
Power (hp)
>0 to 1 1
>11 to 25
>25 to 50
>50to 100
>1 00 to 175
>1 75 to 300
>300 to 600
>600 to 750
>750
Model
Year
88-99
00-04
05-
88-99
00-04
05-
88-98
99-03
04-
88-97
98-03
04-07
08-
88-96
97-02
03-06
07-
88-95
96-02
03-05
06-
88-95
96-00
01-05
06-
88-95
96-01
02-05
06-
88-99
00-05
06-
Regulation
-
Tierl
Tier 2
-
Tierl
Tier 2
-
Tierl
Tier 2
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
-
Tierl
Tier 2
Emission Factors (g/hp-hr)
HC
1.5
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.2
0.2
1.8
0.13
0.13
1.0
0.56
0.36
0.18
0.7
0.4
0.36
0.18
0.7
0.35
0.35
0.18
0.7
0.22
0.22
0.18
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.18
0.7
0.2
0.2
CO
5.0
4.1
4.1
5.0
1.3
1.3
5.0
1.8
1.8
3.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.7
1.1
1.1
1.1
2.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
2.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
2.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
2.7
1.1
1.1
NOX
10.0
5.6
4.3
8.5
4.0
4.3
6.9
4.8
4.3
6.9
5.3
4.7
3.0
8.4
5.9
4.1
2.5
8.4
5.8
4.0
2.5
8.4
5.8
4.1
2.5
8.4
5.8
4.1
2.5
8.4
5.8
4.1
PM1
1.0
0.52
0.44
0.9
0.36
0.36
0.8
0.38
0.32
0.72
0.37
0.24
0.24
0.4
0.22
0.18
0.18
0.4
0.19
0.12
0.12
0.4
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.4
0.14
0.12
0.12
0.4
0.13
0.12
1 PM10 is assumed to be equivalent to PM.
V-8
-------
Table V-5
Emission Factors for SI Engines Below 25 hp
Engine Tech Type
HC CO
NOV
PM1 BSFC
Class III Engine Emissions for New Engines (g/kW-hr)
Gas 2-stroke handheld Class III, baseline
Phase 1
Phase 1 with catalyst
Phase 2
Phase 2 with catalysts
350
295
295
44
36
964
644
644
380
190
1.30
1.05
1.05
1.22
2.00
10.33
10.33
10.33
10.33
10.33
830
720
720
500
500
Class IV Handheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr)
Gas 2-stroke handheld Class IV, baseline
Phase 1
Phase 1 with catalyst
Phase 1 4-stroke
Phase 2
Phase 2 with catalysts
Phase 2 4-stroke
350
241
241
30
44
36
35
964
546
546
715
380
190
580
1.26
0.688
0.688
2.40
1.22
2.00
1.51
10.33
10.33
10.33
0.08
10.33
10.33
0.08
830
720
720
515
500
500
515
Class V Handheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr)
Gas 2-stroke handheld Class V, baseline
Phase 1
Phase 1 with catalyst
Phase 2
Phase 2 with catalysts
214
161
161
64
54
696
471
471
380
190
1.30
2.436
2.436
1.22
2.00
10.33
10.33
10.33
10.33
10.33
560
529
529
370
370
Class I Nonhandheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr)
Gas 2-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline
Gas, side-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline
Gas, overhead-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline
2-stroke, Phase 1
Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke
Phase 1 overhead valved 4-stroke
Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke with catalyst
Phase 2 side-valved
Phase 2 overhead valved
279
52
18
161
11.27
11.27
11.27
10.63
8.22
651
578
548
603
474
471
474
474
471
0.39
2.68
2.41
5.36
4.83
4.34
4.83
3.17
2.46
10.33
0.080
0.080
10.33
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
529
830
603
529
560
475
560
560
475
Class II Nonhandheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr)
Gas 2-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline
Gas, side-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline
Gas, overhead-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline
Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke
Phase 1 overhead valved 4-stroke
Phase 2 side-valved
Phase 2 overhead valved
279
12.96
6.97
7.37
6.97
7.37
5.58
651
578
548
519
473
519
473
0.39
2.76
4.69
6.03
4.69
6.03
3.72
10.33
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
529
570
570
528
450
528
450
1 PM10 is assumed to be equivalent to PM.
V-9
-------
2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and
Locomotives
Aircraft emissions for 2007 were based on the existing NET projections, which used FAA
LTO data as the growth surrogate for commercial and civil aircraft. Military aircraft were
projected from 1996 using BEA GSP growth factors. Aircraft estimates for the years 2020 and
2030 were also based on existing NET emission estimates, which were developed from
commercial and general aviation growth rates from the FAA. Forecasts were only available up to
the year 2020 in "Long Range Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2010, 2015, and 2020," (FAA,
1998b). The annual average growth rate for the period 2015 to 2020 was assumed for estimating
growth out to the year 2030. Military aviation activity was assumed to remain constant starting
in 2010, so 2010 emissions from the NET were used for 2020 and 2030 estimates for this
category. The EPA has promulgated NOX and CO emission standards for commercial aircraft,
but the impacts from these standards are not accounted for in this analysis.
Commercial marine emissions projections were developed similar to the 1996 base year
estimates, with updated national commercial marine diesel emissions for 2007, 2020 and 2030
provided by OTAQ being distributed to the county based on the existing 1996 county-level
distribution in the NET. These national estimates reflect the effect of Federal emission standards
promulgated for new diesel-fueled commercial marine vessels. Commercial gasoline,
commercial coal, and military marine emissions were grown from 1996 using BEA GSP growth
factors.
Locomotive emission estimates for 2007, 2020 and 2030 were based on corrected emission
estimates from the Regulatory Support Document for locomotive emission standards (EPA,
1997). The correction reflects the standards taking effect in 2007, not 2002. This report
contained emission projections for all criteria pollutants except for SO2; therefore, SO2 estimates
from the current NET inventory were used. For the rulemaking support analysis, EPA assumed
that future year fuel consumption will remain constant at 1996 levels. It was thought that
improvements in the fuel efficiency of locomotives will offset the increase in the amount of
freight hauled; therefore, no growth was assumed. The national emission estimates also
accounted for future, phased-in controls that will primarily reduce NOX and PM emissions.
These updated national estimates were distributed to the county-level using the existing county
allocation in the 1996 NET inventory.
3. Methodologies for NH3 and SOA
Updated values for national diesel and gasoline fuel consumption, as well as California
diesel fuel consumption, were obtained from the June 2000 draft version of the NONROAD
model for 2007, 2020, and 2030. Fuel consumption was distributed to counties using the 1996
county-level distribution. County-level fuel consumption estimates were then multiplied by the
appropriate emission factor to estimate NH3 emissions for the projection years. For aircraft,
commercial marine, and locomotive categories, 1996 base year NH3 emissions were projected to
future years using the growth indicators listed in Table V-3.
V-10
-------
SO A emissions were calculated for projection years using the same method used for the base
year. Projected VOC emission estimates were multiplied by the appropriate fractional aerosol
coefficient for each SCC.
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES
Nonroad mass emissions were maintained in a separate data base from area source
emissions, but the mass emissions file structure is the same for nonroad and area sources.
Nonroad emissions are combined with area sources to produce the final emissions processor
input files. Refer to Chapter IV for the mass and emissions processor input file names and
structures.
V-ll
-------
CHAPTER VI
ON-HIGHWAY VEHICLE SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
This section summarizes the inputs and control programs that were modeled and adjustments
that were made to the 1996 on-highway vehicle emissions inventory. The starting point for the
1996 on-highway vehicle emission inventory was the 1996 National Emission Trends highway
vehicle emission factor database created in 1998 that was also used in support of EPA's Tier 2
rulemaking. The procedures document for the National Emissions Inventory provides more
detail on the inputs contained in that analysis, but some of the key elements of that inventory are
summarized here (EPA, 1998b). The 1996 vehicle miles traveled (VMT) used in this HDD
analysis also uses the corresponding Trends VMT file as the starting point, with the updates
discussed below.
The 1996 VMT data is based on historical 1996 Highway Performance Monitoring System
(HPMS) data obtained from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA, 1997). The HPMS
database contains state-level summaries of average annual daily VMT by roadway type and by
rural, small urban, and individual urban areas. The small urban and individual urban area VMT
combined to make up the total urban VMT. Based on population data from the Bureau of Census
(BOC, 1992), the HPMS data were distributed to counties at the roadway type level. A
conversion was then made at the national roadway type level to convert the national VMT from
the HPMS vehicle categories to the MOBILESb vehicle type categories. EPA's OTAQ provided
a new mapping of the HPMS VMT by vehicle category to the MOBILES vehicle categories.
This was an update from the VMT mapping used in the 1996 Trends VMT data base. Table VI-1
shows this new HPMS to MOBILES VMT allocation by vehicle type. Using the data in the
table, national 1996 HPMS VMT, by rural and urban categories, were converted to total fraction
of VMT by MOBILES vehicle type for rural roads and urban roads. These fractions were then
multiplied by the 1996 VMT distributed by county and roadway type to create the new 1996
VMT file by county, roadway type, and vehicle type. Table VI-2 summarizes the resulting VMT
data by vehicle type and shows the fraction of VMT in each of the MOBILES vehicle categories.
Speeds modeled in this analysis, both in 1996 and the projection years, were constant by
vehicle class and functional road class throughout the nation. In other words, the same speeds
were modeled in all analysis years, and the speeds depended upon the vehicle type and road type.
The origin of these speed data is an analysis performed on output from the HPMS impact
analysis for 1990 (FHWA, 1990). Speeds from this analysis year were consistent with speeds
from earlier analysis years. Table VI-3 shows the speeds modeled.
VI-1
-------
Table VI-1
HPMS to MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category Assignments
HPMS VMT Vehicle Category
Motorcycle
Passenger Car
Buses
Other 2-axle, 4-tire vehicles
Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more trucks
Combination trucks
MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category
MC
LDGV
LDDV
HDGV
HDDV
LDGT1
LDGT2
LDDT
HDGV
HDDV
HDGV
HDDV
HDGV
HDDV
1996 VMT Fraction
1.0000
0.9945
0.0055
0.3077
0.6923
0.6621
0.2284
0.0054
0.0759
0.0282
0.2925
0.7075
0.0000
1.0000
Table VI-2
National 1996 VMT by Vehicle Type for HDD Analysis
Vehicle Type
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
LDDV
LDDT
HDDV
MC
Total
1996 VMT (million miles)
1,455,403
538,255
185,684
82,355
8,054
4,388
190,994
9,872
2,475,004
1996 VMT Fractions
0.5880
0.2175
0.0750
0.0333
0.0033
0.0018
0.0772
0.0040
1.0000
VI-2
-------
Table VI-3
Average Speeds by Road Type and Vehicle Type
(Miles per Hour)
Rural Roadway Types
LDV
LOT
HDV
Interstate
60
55
40
Principal
Arterial
45
45
35
Minor
Arterial
40
40
30
Major
Collector
35
35
25
Minor
Collector
30
30
25
Local
30
30
25
Urban Roadway Types
Other Freeways Principal Minor
Interstate & Expressways Arterial Arterial Collector Local
LDV
LOT
HDV
45
45
35
45
45
35
20
20
15
20
20
15
20
20
15
20
20
15
Vehicle registration distributions by vehicle age used in the 1996 NET include distributions
provided by States through OTAG and the NOX SIP Call. Areas with no specified registration
distribution were modeled with registration distributions by vehicle type developed based on
national sales and registration data for 1996. The same registration distributions used in 1996
were also applied in both projection years. These registration distributions by age differ by the
MOBILESb vehicle categories.
Temperatures for 1996 were based on the average historical 1996 monthly maximum and
minimum daily temperatures reported in a city selected to be representative of temperatures
within a given State. Emission factors were calculated at the monthly level using these monthly
temperatures. Monthly RVP data were also used in the MOBILESb inputs. These inputs were
based on January and July RVP data from American Automobile Manufacturers Association's
(AAMA's) fuel surveys (AAMA, 1996), and then allocated by month and area. More details on
the temperature inputs and the RVP allocation procedures can be found in the Trends procedures
document (EPA, 1998b).
In addition to the inputs described above, control programs were modeled in 1996, as
discussed below.
VI-3
-------
1. Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs
Inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs were modeled in areas with such programs in
place in 1996. The actual I/M inputs and the counties included in these programs were based on
data collected in the OTAG process, as well as from state-level I/M program summary
information provided by OTAQ (Somers, 1997a). The vehicle types affected by these programs
vary by area but can include light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and trucks (LDGTls and
LDGT2s) and heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDGVs).
2. RFC
Phase 1 of the Federal RFG program was modeled in the 1996 MOBILESb inputs. The areas
and counties that were modeled with RFG are shown in Table VI-4. Data on the RFG coverage
was provided by OTAQ. The summertime RFG benefits were applied from May through
September, while the winter RFG benefits were applied in the remaining months. California was
modeled with the benefits of the Federal RFG program applied Statewide.
3. Oxygenated Gasoline
Oxygenated gasoline was modeled in the areas participating in this program in 1996. A
listing of these areas was provided by OTAQ (Somers, 1997b), along with the months that the
oxygenated gasoline program was in place in these areas and the market share of ether and
alcohol blends. The average oxygen content of ether blend fuels was assumed to be 2.7 percent in
all oxygenated gasoline areas and the average oxygen content of alcohol blend fuels was assumed
to be 3.5 percent in all oxygenated gasoline areas. Table VI-5 lists the counties modeled with
oxygenated gasoline and the corresponding fuel parameters.
4. Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Programs
In the 1996 analysis year, LEV programs were modeled in California, Massachusetts, and
New York. The California program was modeled with a 1994 start year, using the MOBILES
default LEV schedule. The LEV programs in Massachusetts and New York were modeled with
start years of 1995 and 1996, respectively, with 15 percent of 1995 model year new vehicle sales
(in Massachusetts only) meeting the intermediate Transitional LEV (TLEV) emission standards,
20 percent of 1996 model year new vehicle sales meeting the TLEV emission standards, and the
remaining new vehicle sales meeting the Federal Tier I emission standards. The LEV programs
affect LDGVs and LDGTls.
VI-4
-------
Table VI-4
Counties Modeled with Federal Reformulated Gasoline (RFG)
State/
Nonattainment Area County
State/
Nonattainment Area County
Arizona (Southern RFG)
Phoenix
Maricopa Co
Connecticut (Northern RFG)
Greater Connecticut
Hartford Co
Litchfield Co
Middlesex Co
New Haven Co
New London Co
Tolland Co
Windham Co
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
Fairfield Co
District of Columbia (Southern RFG)
Washington DC
Washington
Delaware (Northern RFG)
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Kent Co
New Castle Co
Sussex County
Sussex Co
Illinois (Northern RFG)
Chicago-Gary-Lake County
Cook Co
Du Page Co
Grundy Co
Kane Co
Kendall Co
Lake Co
McHenry Co
Will Co
Indiana (Northern RFG)
Chicago-Gary-Lake County
Lake Co
Porter Co
Kentucky (Northern RFG)
Cincinnati-Hamilton
Boone Co
Campbell Co
Kenton Co
Louisville
Bullitt Co
Jefferson Co
Maine (Northern RFG)
Knox & Lincoln Counties
Knox Co
Lincoln Co
Lewiston-Auburn
Androscoggin Co
Kennebec Co
Portland
Cumberland Co
SagadahocCo
York Co
Maryland (Southern RFG)
Baltimore
Anne Arundel Co
Baltimore
Baltimore Co
Carroll Co
Harford Co
Howard Co
Kent & Queen Annes Counties
Kent Co
Queen Annes Co
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Cecil Co
Washington DC
Calvert Co
Charles Co
Frederick Co
Montgomery Co
Prince Georges Co
Massachusetts (Northern RFG)
Boston-Lawrence-Worcester-Eastern MA
Barnstable Co
Bristol Co
Dukes Co
Essex Co
Middlesex Co
Nantucket Co
Norfolk Co
Plymouth Co
Suffolk Co
Worcester Co
Springfield/Pittsfield-Western MA
Berkshire Co
Franklin Co
VI-5
-------
Table VI-4 (continued)
State/
Nonattainment Area County
State/
Nonattainment Area County
Oldham Co
New Hampshire (Northern RFC)
Manchester
Hillsborough Co
Merrimack Co
Portsmouth-Dover-Rochester
Rockingham Co
Strafford Co
New Jersey (Northern RFC)
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton
Warren Co
Atlantic City
Atlantic Co
Cape May Co
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
Bergen Co
Essex Co
Hudson Co
Hunterdon Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Somerset Co
Sussex Co
Union Co
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Burlington Co
Camden Co
Cumberland Co
Gloucester Co
Mercer Co
Salem Co
New York (Northern RFC)
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
Bronx Co
Kings Co
Nassau Co
New York Co
Orange Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
Rockland Co
Suffolk Co
Westchester Co
Hampden Co
Hampshire Co
New York (Northern RFC)
Poughkeepsie
Dutchess Co
Putnam Co
Pennsylvania (Northern RFC)
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Bucks Co
Chester Co
Delaware Co
Montgomery Co
Philadelphia Co
Rhode Island (Northern RFC)
Providence
Bristol Co
Kent Co
Newport Co
Providence Co
Washington Co
Texas (Southern RFC)
Dallas-Fort Worth
Collin Co
Dallas Co
Denton Co
Tarrant Co
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria
Brazoria Co
Chambers Co
Fort Bend Co
Galveston Co
Harris Co
Liberty Co
Montgomery Co
Waller Co
Virginia (Southern RFC)
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News
Chesapeake
Hampton
James City Co
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
VI-6
-------
Table VI-4 (continued)
State/
Nonattainment Area County
State/
Nonattainment Area County
Virginia (Southern RFC)
Richmond-Petersburg
Washington DC
Charles City Co
Chesterfield Co
Colonial Heights
Hanover Co
Henrico Co
Hopewell
Richmond
Alexandria
Arlington Co
Fairfax
Fairfax Co
Falls Church
Loudoun Co
Manassas
Manassas Park
Prince William Co
Stafford Co
Wisconsin (Northern RFC)
Milwaukee-Racine
York Co
Kenosha Co
Milwaukee Co
Ozaukee Co
Racine Co
Washington Co
Waukesha Co
NOTE: Federal reformulated gasoline was modeled statewide in California. Certain RFG fuel property requirements differ
depending on whether an area receives Northern or Southern RFG.
VI-7
-------
Table VI-5
Oxygenated Gasoline Modeling Parameters
Market Shares (%)
State
Alaska
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Connecticut
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Montana
Nevada
Nevada
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
County
Anchorage Ed
Anchorage Ed
Maricopa Co
Adams Co
Arapahoe Co
Boulder Co
Douglas Co
Jefferson Co
Denver Co
El Paso Co
Larimer Co
Fairfield Co
Anoka Co
Carver Co
Dakota Co
Hennepin Co
Ramsey Co
Scott Co
Washington Co
Wright Co
Chisago Co
Isanti Co
Missoula Co
Clark Co
Washoe Co
Bergen Co
Essex Co
Hudson Co
Hunterdon Co
Mercer Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Somerset Co
Sussex Co
Union Co
Bernalillo Co
Bronx Co
Kings Co
MTBE
0
0
80
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
90
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
0
0
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
15
95
95
Alcohol Blends
100
100
20
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
10
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
100
100
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
85
5
5
Oxygen
Content (%)
MTBE Alcohol Blends
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Oxygenated
Gasoline Season
NOV-FEB (2007, 2020, & 2030)
NOV-DEC (1996 only)
OCT-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
NOV-FEB
OCT-MAR
OCT-JAN
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
VI-8
-------
Market Shares (%)
State
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Texas
Utah
Washington
Washington
Washington
Washington
Wisconsin
County
Nassau Co
New York Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
Rockland Co
Suffolk Co
Westchester
Co
Orange Co
Putnam Co
Clackamas Co
Jackson Co
Multnomah Co
Washington Co
Josephine Co
Klamath Co
Yamhill Co
El Paso Co
Utah Co
Clark Co
King Co
Snohomish Co
Spokane Co
St. Croix Co
MTBE
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
15
20
1
1
1
1
10
Alcohol Blends
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
85
80
99
99
99
99
90
Oxygen
Content (%)
MTBE Alcohol Blends
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Oxygenated
Gasoline Season
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
SEP-FEB
OCT-JAN
5. MOBILES to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
VOC, NOX, and CO on-highway vehicle emission factors were calculated using the above
inputs and EPA's MOBILESb emission factor model. Emission factors for on-highway SO2,
PM10, and PM25 were calculated using EPA's PARTS model and NH3 emission factors for on-
highway vehicles were calculated using national vehicle-specific emission factors (Harvey,
1983). Various adjustment factors were then applied to the MOBILESb VOC and NOX emission
factors to simulate emission factors that would result from using MOBJLE6, as well as
accounting for issues not included in MOBILESb. Each of these adjustments are discussed
below. All of the adjustment factors discussed in these sections were provided by OTAQ.
a. VOC and NOX Exhaust Adjustments
Adjustment factors to convert the MOBILESb emission factors to MOBILE6 emission
factors were applied to the VOC exhaust and NOX MOBILESb output emission factors for
LDGVs, LDGTls, LDGT2s, HDGVs, LDDVs, and LDDTs. These factors varied by vehicle type
and by control combination. The control combination included one of three fuel types
(conventional gasoline, western gasoline, and reformulated gasoline) and one of three I/M
VI-9
-------
categories (no I/M, I/M, and appropriate I/M). (An appropriate //Mprogram is defined as one
that meets EPA's requirements to be modeled with the maximum LEV benefits.) Each county in
the nation was assigned one of these control combinations. The corresponding adjustment factor
was then applied to each monthly, vehicle type emission factor for each county in the nation.
Table VI-6 lists the exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment factors applied in 1996
and the projection years and Table VI-7 lists the NOX MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment
factors. Both tables are by vehicle type and control combination.
b. Air Conditioning Usage Factors
An additional adjustment was applied to the NOX LDGV, LDGT1, and LDGT2 emission
factors (already adjusted, as above to MOBILE6 emission rates) in 1996. This adjustment
accounted for the additional NOX emissions that would occur with air conditioning usage that is
not included in the MOBILES emission factors. The air conditioning usage factors consist of two
components: a factor simulating full air conditioning usage and a temperature dependent factor
that adjusts the full usage factor for usage at the given temperature. These two factors were
multiplied and then added to the MOBILE6-adjusted NOX emission factors. The full usage factor
is dependent upon vehicle type and the same control combinations listed with the MOBILE6
adjustments (with the exception that areas with both I/M and appropriate I/M are categorized
together for this adjustment). Table VI-8 lists the full usage NOX air conditioning usage factors.
The air conditioning adjustment becomes 0 below temperatures of 68 °F. Above temperatures of
109°F, the full usage factor is applied directly. The temperatures used to calculate this
adjustment were the ambient temperatures calculated by MOBILESb and included in the
MOBILESb output files. The temperature dependent equation is as follows:
Temp Adj = -3.631541 + 0.072465 * AMBTEMP - 0.000276 * (AMBTEMPA2)
This temperature adjustment was then multiplied by the corresponding full usage factor and the
result was added to the MOBILE6-adjusted NOX emission factors.
c. HDDV Adjustment Factors
The final set of adjustment factors applied to the 1996 on-highway vehicle emission
inventories is the set of HDDV adjustment factors. These factors account for the emission factor
updates from data collected by OTAQ for MOBILE6 for VOC, NOX, CO, SO2, PM10, and PM2 5
as well as the NOX emission changes due to the use of the HDDV defeat devices. The factors
vary by roadway type, as shown in Table VI-9.
VI-10
-------
Table VI-6
Exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
Year
1996
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
APR IM CG
APR IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.880
0.969
0.880
0.880
0.969
0.880
0.787
0.870
0.787
0.700
0.849
0.745
0.568
0.682
0.605
0.502
0.608
0.532
1.496
1.751
1.499
0.297
0.344
0.297
0.277
0.337
0.278
1.644
1.925
1.645
0.273
0.321
0.274
0.263
0.324
0.263
LDGT1
0.896
0.973
0.896
0.896
0.973
0.896
0.834
0.905
0.834
0.805
0.969
0.857
0.621
0.742
0.661
0.545
0.652
0.575
1.233
1.443
1.235
0.282
0.327
0.282
0.284
0.346
0.284
1.509
1.766
1.511
0.258
0.303
0.258
0.268
0.330
0.268
LDGT2
1.132
1.203
1.132
1.132
1.203
1.132
1.020
1.084
1.020
0.758
0.973
0.828
0.758
0.973
0.828
0.640
0.826
0.699
0.302
0.347
0.303
0.302
0.347
0.303
0.263
0.309
0.264
0.201
0.241
0.202
0.201
0.241
0.202
0.200
0.249
0.200
LDDV
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
0.917
0.907
0.917
0.917
0.907
0.917
0.939
0.905
0.939
0.319
0.288
0.319
0.319
0.288
0.319
0.386
0.440
0.386
0.285
0.253
0.285
0.285
0.253
0.285
0.355
0.422
0.355
LDDT
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
0.874
0.853
0.874
0.874
0.853
0.874
0.907
0.881
0.907
0.271
0.229
0.271
0.271
0.229
0.271
0.476
0.409
0.476
0.266
0.222
0.266
0.266
0.222
0.266
0.494
0.424
0.494
HDGV
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.431
0.431
0.431
0.431
0.431
0.431
0.431
0.431
0.431
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
VI-11
-------
Table VI-7
NOX MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
Year
1996
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
APR IM CG
APR IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IMCG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IMCG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IMCG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IMCG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.948
0.965
0.948
0.948
0.965
0.948
0.885
0.901
0.885
0.724
0.761
0.748
0.590
0.620
0.610
0.556
0.584
0.573
0.550
0.583
0.556
0.184
0.195
0.186
0.235
0.250
0.238
0.474
0.505
0.476
0.148
0.157
0.149
0.207
0.220
0.207
LDGT1
0.948
0.961
0.948
0.948
0.961
0.948
0.875
0.886
0.875
0.936
0.977
0.967
0.766
0.801
0.791
0.710
0.743
0.732
0.471
0.497
0.476
0.212
0.224
0.214
0.283
0.300
0.286
0.424
0.450
0.428
0.176
0.187
0.178
0.252
0.267
0.254
LDGT2
1.037
1.045
1.037
1.037
1.045
1.037
0.976
0.984
0.976
0.741
0.772
0.754
0.741
0.772
0.754
0.652
0.679
0.663
0.300
0.314
0.303
0.300
0.314
0.303
0.306
0.321
0.309
0.180
0.189
0.184
0.180
0.189
0.184
0.222
0.233
0.225
LDDV
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
0.740
0.739
0.740
0.740
0.739
0.740
0.741
0.740
0.741
0.144
0.143
0.144
0.144
0.143
0.144
0.234
0.226
0.234
0.118
0.116
0.118
0.118
0.116
0.118
0.219
0.210
0.219
LDDT
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
0.694
0.688
0.694
0.694
0.688
0.694
0.719
0.714
0.719
0.158
0.155
0.158
0.158
0.155
0.158
0.285
0.280
0.285
0.161
0.159
0.161
0.161
0.159
0.161
0.303
0.298
0.303
HDGV
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
VI-12
-------
Table VI-8
NOX Full Usage Air Conditioning Adjustment Factors
Year
1996
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type
(grams/mile)
LDGV
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.347
0.347
0.347
0.195
0.190
0.202
0.222
0.217
0.230
0.063
0.062
0.063
0.093
0.092
0.094
0.055
0.054
0.055
0.085
0.084
0.085
LDGT1
0.194
0.194
0.194
0.207
0.207
0.207
0.142
0.138
0.146
0.163
0.159
0.167
0.047
0.046
0.047
0.073
0.072
0.073
0.041
0.040
0.041
0.068
0.067
0.068
LDGT2
0.252
0.252
0.252
0.266
0.266
0.266
0.179
0.176
0.182
0.195
0.192
0.198
0.072
0.071
0.073
0.099
0.097
0.099
0.054
0.053
0.055
0.083
0.082
0.084
VI-13
-------
Table VI-9
HDDV Base Case Adjustment Factors
Adjustment Factor (unitless)
Year
1996
2007
2020
2030
Facility
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Description
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Interstate
Other Prin Arterial
Interstate
Other Freeways
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Other Prin Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
Interstate
Other Prin Arterial
Interstate
Other Freeways
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Other Prin Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
Interstate
Other Prin Arterial
Interstate
Other Freeways
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Other Prin Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
Interstate
Other Prin Arterial
Interstate
Other Freeways
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Other Prin Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
voc
0.6858
0.6858
0.6858
0.6858
0.5712
0.5712
0.5712
0.5712
0.5916
0.5916
0.5916
0.5916
0.3750
0.3750
0.3750
0.3750
0.3153
0.3153
0.3153
0.3153
0.3090
0.3090
0.3090
0.3090
0.3229
0.3229
0.3229
0.3229
0.2499
0.2499
0.2499
0.2499
0.2351
0.2351
0.2351
0.2351
0.3103
0.3103
0.3103
0.3103
0.2394
0.2394
0.2394
0.2394
0.2251
0.2251
0.2251
0.2251
0,
0,
0,
0,
CO
.8030
.8030
.8030
.8030
0.6106
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
.6106
.6106
.6106
.6275
.6275
.6275
.6275
.4076
.4076
.4076
.4076
.3191
.3191
.3191
.3191
.3203
.3203
.3203
.3203
.3721
.3721
.3721
.3721
.2852
.2852
.2852
.2852
.2786
.2786
.2786
.2786
.3658
.3658
.3658
.3658
.2809
0.2809
0.2809
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
.2809
.2746
.2746
.2746
.2746
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
NOV
.2973
.2973
.2973
.2973
.2723
.2723
.2723
.2723
.0240
.0240
.0240
.0240
.6939
.6939
.6939
.6939
.1260
.1260
.1260
.1260
.0908
.0908
.0908
.0908
.7099
.7099
.7099
.7099
.3144
.3144
.3144
.3144
.3130
.3130
.3130
.3130
.7078
.7078
.7078
.7078
.3586
.3586
.3586
.3586
.3713
.3713
.3713
.3713
0.
0,
0.
0.
0,
0.
0.
0.
0,
0.
0,
0,
0.
0,
0.
0.
0,
0.
0.
0.
0,
0.
0,
0,
0.
0,
0.
0.
0,
0.
0.
0.
0,
0.
0,
0,
0.
0,
0.
0.
0,
0.
0.
0.
0,
0.
0,
0,
PM
8666
.8666
8666
8666
.7110
,7110
,7110
,7110
.7549
,7549
.7549
.7549
9564
.9564
9564
9564
.7918
,7918
,7918
,7918
.7924
7924
.7924
.7924
9220
.9220
9220
9220
.7506
,7506
,7506
,7506
.7262
7262
.7262
.7262
,9131
.9131
,9131
,9131
.7411
,7411
,7411
,7411
.7161
,7161
.7161
.7161
SO,
0.7063
0.7063
0.7063
0.7063
0.6085
0.6085
0.6085
0.6085
0.6268
0.6268
0.6268
0.6268
0.6968
0.6968
0.6968
0.6968
0.6077
0.6077
0.6077
0.6077
0.6264
0.6264
0.6264
0.6264
0.6506
0.6506
0.6506
0.6506
0.5799
0.5799
0.5799
0.5799
0.6005
0.6005
0.6005
0.6005
0.5948
0.5948
0.5948
0.5948
0.5390
0.5390
0.5390
0.5390
0.5606
0.5606
0.5606
0.5606
VI-14
-------
B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
This section summarizes the growth assumptions made and control programs applied to
calculate the 2007, 2020, and 2030 on-highway vehicle emission inventories. As discussed
above, the registration distributions and speeds modeled in 1996 were also used in the projection
years. The temperatures modeled in the projection years represented State-specific average
monthly maximum and minimum daily temperatures averaged from 1970 through 1997 using
data from the National Climatic Data Center. The same temperatures were modeled in 2007,
2020, and 2030.
1. Growth Assumptions
The VMT used in 2007, 2020, and 2030 were projected from 1996, using VMT projection
data from EPA's Tier 2 rulemaking (EPA, 1999c). First, VMT from the Tier 2 analysis were
totaled by county and vehicle type for 1996 and the projection years. Next, each VMT record
from the 1996 data base (at the county, vehicle type, and roadway type level of detail) developed
for this HDD rulemaking analysis and discussed earlier in this chapter was multiplied by the ratio
of the corresponding Tier 2 projection year VMT to the 1996 Tier 2 VMT (both at the county and
vehicle type level of detail). In this manner, the 1996 VMT shifts by vehicle class from the Tier
2 analysis to the HDD analysis were projected to the future using the area and vehicle type-
specific growth factors from the Tier 2 analysis. The resulting projection year VMT and the
corresponding VMT fractions by vehicle type are shown in Table VI-10.
Table VI-10
National VMT Projections and VMT Fractions by Vehicle Type for HDD Analysis
Vehicle
Type
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
LDDV
LDDT
HDDV
MC
Total
Annual
2007
1,245,991
1,207,617
268,323
119,002
0
4,108
275,722
14,265
3,135,027
VMT (million
2020
1,283,189
1,670,987
371,876
165,884
0
5,112
384,106
19,885
3,901,040
miles)
2030
1,311,807
2,027,426
451,534
201,948
0
5,885
467,480
24,208
4,490,287
VMT Fractions
2007
0.397
0.385
0.086
0.038
0.000
0.001
0.088
0.005
1.000
2020
0.329
0.428
0.095
0.043
0.000
0.001
0.098
0.005
1.000
2030
0.292
0.452
0.101
0.045
0.000
0.001
0.104
0.005
1.000
2. Base Case Control Assumptions
This section summarizes the control programs that were modeled for highway vehicles in
2007, 2020, and 2030. The Control Case was modeled by applying reduction percentages to the
heavy-duty gasoline vehicle (HDGV) and HDDV Base Case emissions and additional SO2
reductions to light-duty diesel emissions.
VI-15
-------
a. I/M Programs
I/M program inputs were the same in all of the projection years. The default program
parameters for counties expected to have I/M programs in place in the projection years are the
EPA performance standard I/M program inputs. The specific inputs modeled for each of the I/M
program performance standards are shown in Table VI-11. I/M program
Table VI-11
I/M Performance Standard Program Inputs
I/M Program Name
I/M Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Stringency Level (Percent)
Model Years Covered
Waiver Rate For Pre-1981 Model Years (%)
Waiver Rate For 1981 and Later Models (%)
Compliance Rate (%)
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Vehicle Types Inspected
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Test Type
I/M Cutpoints
Effectiveness Rates (% hydrocarbon
(HC)/CO/NOX)
Program Start Year
Stringency Level (Percent)
Model Years Covered
Waiver Rate For Pre-1981 Model Years (%)
Waiver Rate For 1981 and Later Models (%)
Compliance Rate (%)
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Vehicle Types Inspected
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Test Type
I/M Cutpoints (g/mi HC/CO/NOX)
Effectiveness Rates (% HC/CO/NOX)
Anti-Tampering Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Model Years Covered
Basic I/M
Performance
Standard
1983
20
1968-2020
0
0
100
TO
Annual
YES
NO
NO
NO
IdleTest
220/1 .2/999
1.00/1.00/1.00
Low Enhanced I/M
Performance
Standard
1983
20
1968-2020
3
3
96
TO
Annual
YES
YES
YES
NO
IdleTest
220/1 .2/999
1.00/1.00/1.00
1995
1972-2020
High Enhanced
I/M Performance
Standard
1983
20
1968-1985
3
3
96
TO
Annual
YES
YES
YES
NO
2500/ldleTest
220/1 .2/999
1.00/1.00/1.00
1983
20
1986-2020
3
3
96
TO
Annual
YES
YES
YES
NO
TransientTest
0.80/20.0/2.00
1.00/1.00/1.00
1995
1984-2020
VI-16
-------
Table VI-11 (continued)
I/M Program Name
Basic I/M
Performance
Standard
Low Enhanced I/M
Performance
Standard
High Enhanced
I/M Performance
Standard
I/M Program Parameters
Vehicle Types Inspected
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Program Type
Effectiveness Rate
Inspection Frequency
Compliance Rate (%)
Inspections Performed
Air Pump System
Catalyst
Fuel Inlet Restrictor
Tailpipe Lead Deposit Test
EGR System
Evaporative Emission Control System
PCV System
Gas Cap
Functional Pressure Test Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Model Years Covered
Effectiveness Rate
Vehicle Types Tested
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Compliance Rate (%)
Purge Test Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Model Years Covered
Effectiveness Rate
Vehicle Types Tested
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Compliance Rate (%)
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
1.00
Annual
96
NO
NO
NO
NO
YES
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
1.00
Annual
96
NO
YES
YES
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
1995
1983-2020
1.00
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
Annual
96
1995
1986-2020
1.00
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
Annual
96
NOTES: TO=Test Only
TRC=Test And Repair (Computerized)
VI-17
-------
coverage by county or area was based on data collected by EPA and Pechan for the OTAG and
Section 812 emission projections. During this data collection process, each State was contacted
to confirm which counties in that State would be implementing an I/M program in the future.
Each State was also asked to indicate which of the EPA I/M program types the program would
most closely resemble ~ high enhanced, low enhanced, basic, or Ozone Transport Region (OTR)
low enhanced. Responses were collected from each State with a planned CAA I/M program.
Any additional I/M-specific information collected during comment periods for EPA's NOX SIP
Call, and accepted by EPA, superseded the default and OTAG I/M data.
b. RFC
Phase II of this Federal RFG program was modeled in the projection years. Coverage of
RFG in the projection years was the same as that in 1996, with the following exceptions: all
Maine counties and Orange County, NY were removed from the 1996 list, shown in Table VI-4.
The entire State of California was modeled with Federal Phase II RFG (ASTM Class B) in the
projection years. Areas not participating in the RFG program were modeled during the ozone
season months with Phase IIRVP values of either 8.7 pounds per square inch (psi) or 7.8 psi.
Areas that provided SIP Call comments documenting the presence of a low RVP program were
modeled at that RVP during the ozone season.
c. Oxygenated Fuel
The oxygenated fuel program inputs and county coverages modeled are the same as those
described for 1996, with the specific changes listed in Table VI-5 for several of the areas for
2007, 2020, and 2030.
d. National LEV (NLEV) Program
The NLEV program was included for all States in the projection year modeling. This
program starts with the 2001 model year nationwide, and in 1999 in the Northeast Ozone
Transport Commission (OTC) States. The implementation schedule of the NLEV program in the
OTC States is shown below.
Model Year
1999
2000
2001 and later
Federal Tier I
Standards
30%
Transitional LEV
Standards
40%
40%
LEV Standards
30%
60%
1 00%
States in the OTC that have adopted a LEV program on their own were modeled with the
characteristics of their programs. These States include Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and
Maine. California's LEV program began in 1994. This was modeled using the MOBILESb
default LEV implementation schedule, along with a start year of 1994 for this program.
The following table shows the emission standards of the Federal Tier I program, the
transitional LEV (TLEV) standards, the LEV standards, and the Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle
VI-18
-------
(ULEV) standards. These standards apply to the LDGV and LDGTla classes of vehicles. The
LDGTlb category is also included in the NLEV program, but the emission standards for these
vehicles are slightly less stringent than those listed below for the lighter vehicles.
Nonmethane Organic
Emission Standard Gas (NMOG) CO NOX
Federal Tier 1
TLEV
LEV
ULEV
0.250 grams/mile nonmethane
hydrocarbon (NMHC)
0.125 grams/mile
0.075 grams/mile
0.040 grams/mile
3.4 grams/mile
3.4 grams/mile
3.4 grams/mile
1.7 grams/mile
0.40 grams/mile
0.40 grams/mile
0.20 grams/mile
0.20 grams/mile
e. 2004 NOX Standard for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines
EPA determined that additional reductions in NOX and NMHC emissions are needed at the
national level from heavy-duty vehicles and promulgated a new NOX plus NMHC standard of
2.5 grams per brake horsepower-hour (g/bhp-hr). This standard was modeled in the MOBILESb
input files following the guidance provided in "MOBILES Information Sheet #5, Inclusion of
New 2004 NOX Standard for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines in MOBILESa and MOBILESb
Modeling" issued on January 30, 1998. (http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/mobile5/m5info5.pdf)
In effect, this modeling reduces the HDDV emission factors starting with the 2004 model year to
be consistent with the new standard, and is applied nationally.
f. Tier 2/Low Sulfur Gasoline Controls and 2007, 2020, and 2030
Adjustment Factors
The 1996 section of this chapter discusses the VOC exhaust and NOX MOBILESb to
MOBILE 6 adjustment factors, the air conditioning usage adjustment factors, and the HDDV
NOX defeat device adjustment factors. The actual factors applied, including those applied in
2007, 2020, and 2030 were shown in Tables VI-6 through VI-9. The adjustment factors applied
in the projection years include the effect of the Tier 2 emission standards and low sulfur gasoline,
in addition to MOBILE6 adjustments. Although the appropriate I/M category was included in
the 1996 adjustment tables, the adjustments were the same as those for I/M. For the projection
years, these two categories have different adjustment factors in most cases. In general, areas
modeled with the EPA enhanced performance standard, or an equivalent I/M program, were
grouped in the "APP EVI" category. Several exceptions to this general rule occurred for areas that
indicated through comments to the NOX SIP Call that were accepted by EPA specifically
indicating that the area should or should not be modeled with the maximum LEV benefits.
i. VOC Evaporative Adjustments
An additional set of MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment factors was applied to the VOC
evaporative emission factors in 2007, 2020, and 2030 that were not applied in 1996. These
adjustments result from the Tier 2 and low sulfur fuel controls. These factors were applied to the
evaporative portion of the VOC emission factors for LDGVs, LDGTls, and LDGT2s, and are
shown in Table VI-12.
VI-19
-------
ii. On-board Diagnostics
To simulate the effects of on-board diagnostic (OBD) devices in the projection years,
adjustments were made to the MOBILESb input files for areas modeled with an I/M program.
This was modeled by adding or modifying pressure and purge test input lines, such that 1996 and
later model year LDGVs and LDGTs would receive the full benefits of a test-only pressure test
and purge test.
iii. PM and SO2 Adjustment Factors
An additional set of factors was applied to PM and gasoline-fueled vehicle SO2 emission
factors in the projection years. The PM factors are shown in Table VI-13 and were applied only
to the exhaust portion of the PM10 and PM2 5 emission factors for LDGVs, LDGTs, HDGVs,
LDDVs, and LDDTs. The brake wear and tire wear portions of the PM factors were not
adjusted. Table VI-14 lists the SO2 factors applied. These factors apply to all gasoline vehicle
types and account for the lower levels of sulfur in gasoline under EPA's final Tier 2/1 ow sulfur
fuel rulemaking.
3. Control Case Emission Reductions
Once the Base Case highway vehicle emission inventories were prepared, the highway
vehicle Control Case emission inventories for 2007, 2020, and 2030 were calculated by
multiplying the base emissions by the specified reduction percentages. Emission reduction
percentages were supplied by OTAQ as national reduction percentages. Table VI-15 lists these
reduction percentages for the vehicle types and pollutants whose emissions were reduced from
the Base Case to the Control Case. For HDDVs, the controls were applied to VOC, NOX, CO,
exhaust PM10, exhaust PM2 5, and SO2. Exhaust and evaporative VOC emissions and NOX
emissions were reduced from HDGVs. SO2 emissions were reduced from LDDVs and LDDTs
(as well as HDDVs) due to the lower diesel fuel sulfur content included in the HDD proposal.
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES
1. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files
The highway vehicle-related files submitted as inputs to EMS-95 consist of MOBILESb
input shells, three VMT-related files, and an adjustment factor file. The MOBILESb input shells
are a set of MOBILESb input files that correspond to each of the MOBILESb input files
developed in calculating the mass emissions inventory, but with only one scenario, representing
July controls and at a single speed and temperature combination. The EMS-95 models then use
these MOBILESb shells to generate emission factors at all of the temperature and speed
combinations necessary for the hourly meteorological conditions being modeled. The three VMT
files include a file with the total VMT by county and road type. The VMT data in these files
represents an annual average day (i.e., annual VMT/365). The format of these files is shown in
Table VI-16. These models then break the VMT down by vehicle type using the VMT mix by
hour, county, road type, and vehicle type. The file structure of these VMT mix files are shown in
Table VI-17. (It should be noted that for this analysis, there is no difference in the VMT mixes
VI-20
-------
TableVI-12
Evaporative VOC MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
Year
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factors by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.985
0.984
0.985
0.992
0.988
0.992
0.883
0.846
0.883
0.945
0.919
0.945
0.874
0.842
0.874
0.941
0.913
0.941
LDGT1
0.984
0.983
0.984
0.992
0.991
0.992
0.880
0.855
0.880
0.954
0.935
0.954
0.860
0.830
0.860
0.948
0.926
0.948
LDGT2
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.941
0.915
0.941
0.978
0.967
0.978
0.915
0.884
0.915
0.974
0.959
0.974
VI-21
-------
TableVI-13
PM Adjustment Factors
Year
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.416
0.624
0.416
0.416
0.625
0.416
0.417
0.625
0.417
LDGT1
0.342
0.563
0.342
0.337
0.559
0.337
0.333
0.556
0.333
LDGT2
0.370
0.591
0.370
0.349
0.571
0.349
0.333
0.556
0.333
HDGV
0.767
0.848
0.767
0.767
0.848
0.767
0.767
0.848
0.767
LDDV
0.826
0.826
0.826
0.421
0.421
0.421
0.109
0.109
0.109
LDDT
0.800
0.800
0.800
0.408
0.408
0.408
0.107
0.107
0.107
MC
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
TableVI-14
SO2 Adjustment Factors
Year
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
LDGT1
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
LDGT2
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
HDGV
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
LDDV
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
LDDT
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
MC
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
VI-22
-------
TableVI-15
HDD Control Case Emission Reduction Percentages
Calendar
Year
2007
2020
2030
2007
2020
2030
2007
2020
2030
2007
2020
2030
Vehicle
Type
HDDV
HDDV
HDDV
HDGV
HDGV
HDGV
LDDV
LDDV
LDDV
LDDT
LDDT
LDDT
National Reduction
Exhaust VOC
4.82%
80.64%
89.43%
0.45%
17.17%
24.29%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Evaporative VOC
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.60%
8.78%
9.78%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
NOX
1 .08%
75.21%
89.50%
1 .02%
33.43%
53.88%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
CO
5.84%
82.40%
89.99%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Exhaust PM10
1 1 .96%
83.89%
92.43%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Exhaust PM25
1 1 .96%
83.89%
92.43%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
SO2
97.64%
97.65%
97.65%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
to
-------
TableVI-16
Structure for VMT Files (OFNVMTyy.TXT)
Variable
Type
Length
Decimals Description
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
ROADTYPE
C
C
C
to
VMT
N
2
3
2
15
0 FIPS State Code
0 FIPS County Code
0 Roadway Type as Defined by Codes Below:
R1-Rural Interstates
R2-Rural Other Principal Arterials
R6-Rural Minor Arterials
R7-Rural Major Collectors
R8-Rural Minor Collectors
R9-Rural Locals
U1-Urban Interstates
U2-Urban Other Freeways and Expressways
U4-Urban Other Principal Arterials
Lie-Urban Minor Arterials
U7-Urban Collectors
U9-Urban Locals
3 Annual Average Daily VMT (miles)
-------
TableVI-17
Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (NTVMIXyy.TXT)
to
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
ROADTYPE
LINKID
HOUR
VEHMIX01
VEHMIX02
VEHMIX03
VEHMIX04
VEHMIX05
VEHMIX06
VEHMIX07
VEHMIX08
Type
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
2
10
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Roadway Type as Defined by Codes Below:
01 -Rural Interstates
02-Rural Other Principal Arterials
06-Rural Minor Arterials
07-Rural Major Collectors
08-Rural Minor Collectors
09-Rural Locals
11 -Urban Interstates
12-Urban Other Freeways and Expressways
14-Urban Other Principal Arterials
16-Urban Minor Arterials
17-Urban Collectors
19-Urban Locals
Not Used
Hour of Day (1 through 24)
VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Gas Vehicles
VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Gas Trucks 1
VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Gas Trucks 2
VMT Mix Fraction for Heavy-Duty Gas Vehicles
VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles
VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Diesel Trucks
VMT Mix Fraction for Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles
VMT Mix Fraction for Motorcycles
-------
VMT mixes by hour of the day.) The third VMT-related file provided for each year includes a
file with average speed information by county and road type. The format of these files is shown
in Table VI-18. Each of these three VMT-related files varies only by year, and not by control
case. The last file included for the EMS-95 modeling related to the on-highway vehicle
modeling varies by year and control case and includes the adjustment factors to be applied by
county and vehicle type. The format of these files is shown in Table VI-19. The HDDV
adjustment factors, and the air conditioning temperature-dependent equation were applied
separately in the modeling code and were not included in the adjustment factor files.
2. EPS 2.5 and Mass Emission Inventory - File Structures
The EPS 2.5 files for on-highway vehicle sources consist of monthly emissions data by
county, vehicle type, and roadway type. The EPS 2.5 modeling files were assembled from
detailed monthly emission files, developed as discussed in the sections above. Separate EPS 2.5
files were created for for each Base and Control Case. All of the on-highway EPS 2.5 emission
files have the same format. This format is shown in Table VI-20. The format of the final mass
emissions file, which contain annual and SSD emissions for each pollutant are shown in Table
VI-21. The same set of years and cases applies to the mass emissions files. It should be noted
that the SSD values for the on-highway vehicle emissions are calculated by dividing July
emissions by 31.
An additional set of files was prepared for 1996, 2030 Base Case, and 2030 Control Case for
use in air toxics modeling. These files were identical to the corresponding mass emissions files,
except that the PM10 and PM2 5 emission fields included only exhaust PM10 or PM2 5 emissions.
Emissions from brake wear and tire wear were excluded from these files. The format of these
files is the format shown in Table VI-21. All exhaust PM10 and PM25 adjustments discussed in
this chapter were also applied in these files.
VI-26
-------
TableVI-18
Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (OFNSPyy.TXT)
Variable
Type Length Decimals Description
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
ROADTYPE
C
C
C
2
3
2
AVESPEED
N
0 FIPS State Code
0 FIPS County Code
0 Roadway Type as Defined by Codes Below:
01-Rural Interstates
02-Rural Other Principal Arterials
06-Rural Minor Arterials
07-Rural Major Collectors
08-Rural Minor Collectors
09-Rural Locals
11-Urban Interstates
12-Urban Other Freeways and Expressways
14-Urban Other Principal Arterials
16-Urban Minor Arterials
17-Urban Collectors
19-Urban Locals
1 Average Vehicle Speed (miles per hour)
TableVI-19
Structure for Adjustment Factor Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
V_TYPE
EXHVOCADJ
EXHNOXADJ
NOXACADJ
EVAPVOCADJ
Type
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
1
10
10
10
10
Decimals
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
Vehicle Type : 1 = LDGV, 2 = LDGT1 , 3 = LDGT2, 4 =
HDGV, 5 = MC, 6 = LDDV, 7 = LDDT, 8 = HDDV
Multiplicative Exhaust VOC Adjustment Factor
Multiplicative NOX Adjustment Factor
Additive NOX Full Air Conditioning Usage Adjustment
Factor (to be multiplied by temperature-dependent
equation)
Multiplicative Evaporative VOC Adjustment Factor
VI-27
-------
Table VI-20
Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source EPS Data Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
sec
V_TYPE
VOC
NOX
CO
SO2
PM10
PM25
SOA
NH3
VOC_JAN
VOC_FEB
VOC_MAR
VOC_APR
VOC_MAY
VOC_JUN
VOC_JUL
VOC_AUG
VOC_SEP
VOC_OCT
VOC_NOV
VOC_DEC
NOX_JAN
NOX_FEB
NOX_MAR
NOX_APR
NOX_MAY
NOX_JUN
NOX_JUL
NOX_AUG
NOX_SEP
NOX_OCT
NOX_NOV
NOX_DEC
CO_JAN
CO_FEB
CO_MAR
CO_APR
CO_MAY
Type
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
10
5
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
Decimals
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
FIPS state code
FIPS county code
AMS Source Category Code
Vehicle Type
Annual VOC Emissions [tons per year (tpy)]
Annual NOX Emissions (tpy)
Annual CO Emissions (tpy)
Annual SO2 Emissions (tpy)
Annual PM10 Emissions (tpy)
Annual PM25 Emissions (tpy)
Annual SOA Emissions (tpy)
Annual NH3 Emissions (tpy)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
VI-28
-------
Table VI-20 (continued)
Variable
CO_JUN
CO_JUL
CO_AUG
CO_SEP
CO_OCT
CO_NOV
CO_DEC
SO2_JAN
SO2_FEB
S02_MAR
S02_APR
SO2_MAY
SO2_JUN
S02_JUL
S02_AUG
SO2_SEP
SO2_OCT
S02_NOV
S02_DEC
PM10_JAN
PM10_FEB
PM10_MAR
PM10_APR
PM10_MAY
PM10_JUN
PM10_JUL
PM10_AUG
PM10_SEP
PM10_OCT
PM10_NOV
PM10_DEC
PM25_JAN
PM25_FEB
PM25_MAR
PM25_APR
PM25_MAY
PM25_JUN
PM25_JUL
PM25_AUG
PM25_SEP
PM25_OCT
PM25_NOV
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
Decimals
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
VI-29
-------
Table VI-20 (continued)
Variable
PM25_DEC
SOA_JAN
SOA_FEB
SOA_MAR
SOA_APR
SOA_MAY
SOA_JUN
SOA_JUL
SOA_AUG
SOA_SEP
SOA_OCT
SOA_NOV
SOA_DEC
NH3_JAN
NH3_FEB
NH3_MAR
NH3_APR
NH3_MAY
NH3_JUN
NH3_JUL
NH3_AUG
NH3_SEP
NH3_OCT
NH3_NOV
NH3 DEC
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
Decimals
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month)
VI-30
-------
Table VI-21
Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source Mass Emissions Data Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
sec
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
S02_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
SOA_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOX_OSD
CO_OSD
S02_OSD
PM10_OSD
PM25_OSD
NH3_OSD
SOAJDSD
VMT_ANN
Type
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
20
Decimals
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
7
Description
FIPS State code
FIPS county code
Source Category Classification Code
Annual VOC emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year)
Annual NOX emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year)
Annual CO emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year)
Annual SO2 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year)
Annual PM10 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year)
Annual PM25 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per
year)
Annual NH3 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year)
Annual SOA emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year)
Summer season day VOC emissions from highway vehicles
[tons per day (tpd)]
Summer season day NOX emissions from highway vehicles
(tpd)
Summer season day CO emissions from highway vehicles
(tpd)
Summer season day SO2 emissions from highway vehicles
(tpd)
Summer season day PM10 emissions from highway vehicles
(tpd)
Summer season day PM25 emissions from highway vehicles
(tpd)
Summer season day NH3 emissions from highway vehicles
(tpd)
Summer season day SOA emissions from highway vehicles
(tpd)
Annual VMT from highway vehicles using 8 vehicle types
(million miles)
VI-31
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CHAPTER VII
EMISSION SUMMARIES AND COMPARISONS
Please note that, in this Chapter, "national" means "48-State" (contiguous United States). As
noted in Chapter I, inventories were prepared for 50-States for mobile and nonroad sources, but
the summaries have been prepared only for the contiguous 48 States.
Tables VII-1 through VII-10 present summaries of annual national emissions and emissions
reductions by pollutant and source category as defined by the Tier 2-level emission summary for
the 1996, 2007, 2020, and 2030 inventories. Table VII-1 summarizes national annual emissions
for the 1996 Base Year inventory. Table VII-2 summarizes national annual emissions for the
2007 Base Case inventory, Table VII-3 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and
nonroad sources for the 2007 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-4 summarizes the mobile
and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2007 Control Case relative to the 2007
Base Case. Table VII-5 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2020 Base Case inventory,
Table VII-6 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2020
Control Case inventory, and Table VII-7 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions
reductions associated with the 2020 Control Case relative to the 2020 Base Case. Table VII-8
summarizes national annual emissions for the 2030 Base Case inventory, Table VII-9
summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2030 Control Case
inventory, and Table VII-10 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated
with the 2030 Control Case relative to the 2030 Base Case.
Tables VII-11 through VII-20 present summaries of annual emissions and emissions
reductions by State and pollutant for each of the major source categories (i.e., stationary area,
nonroad, EGU, non-EGU point, and on-highway mobile sources). Table VII-11 summarizes
annual emissions for the 1996 Base Year inventory. Table VII-12 summarizes national annual
emissions for the 2007 Base Case inventory, Table VII-13 summarizes national annual emissions
for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2007 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-14
summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2007 Control Case
relative to the 2007 Base Case. Table VD-15 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2020
Base Case inventory, Table VII-16 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and
nonroad sources for the 2020 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-17 summarizes the mobile
and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2020 Control Case relative to the 2030
Base Case. Table VII-18 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2030 Base Case
inventory, Table VII-19 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources
for the 2030 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-20 summarizes the mobile and nonroad
emissions reductions associated with the 2030 Control Case relative to the 2030 Base Case.
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Table VII-21 summarizes the total annual emissions in each of the years and cases for all
eight pollutants. Table VII-21 also shows the percent change in emissions between the Base and
Control Case inventories for 2007, 2020, and 2030.
For the Tier 2-level summary tables presented in Tables VII-1 through VII-10 (excluding the
tables showing emissions reductions), biogenic emissions for NH3 are shown because these
emissions are included in the area source inventories prepared under this project. Biogenic VOC
emissions are not shown in these tables because they are prepared separately by EPA for input to
the modeling analyses.
For the off-highway Tier 1 category shown in Tables VII-1 through VII-10 (excluding the
tables showing emissions reductions), total off-highway emissions do not match the totals shown
for nonroad emissions by State presented in Tables VII-11 through VII-20 (excluding the tables
showing emissions reductions). This is because the emissions for four SCC's are included in the
tables that summarize emissions by State, but do not fall under the off-highway Tier 1 category
shown in Tables VIE-1 through VII-10 (excluding the tables showing emissions reductions). The
SCCs, their descriptions, and the Tier 1 and 2 categories to which they are assigned are as
follows:
Tier 1 Category = Miscellaneous
Tier 2 Category = Fugitive Dust
SCC = 2275085000: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Unpaved Airstrips
Tier 1 Category = Storage and Transportation
Tier 2 Category = Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage
SCC = 2275900000: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Refueling; All fuels; All processes
SCC = 2275900101: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Refueling; All fuels; Displacement
Loss/Uncontrolled
SCC = 2275900102: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Refueling; All fuels; Displacement
Loss/Controlled
The remainder of this chapter presents pollutant density maps for the 48-contiguous States
and the District of Columbia. The density maps are in units of annual tons of pollutant emissions
per square mile. For the 1996 Base Year and the 2007, 2020, and 2030 Base Case inventories,
separate maps are presented by pollutant in the following order: VOC, NOX, CO, SOA, SO2,
PM10, PM2 5, and NH3. For the 2007, 2020, and 2030 Control Case inventories, separate density
maps are provided to show mobile and nonroad source emissions reductions for NOX, SO2, and
PM25. Figures VII-1 through VII-8 present the maps for the 1996 Base Year inventory. For
2007, Figures VH-9 through VII-16 present the maps for the Base Case inventory, and Figures
VII-17 through VII-19 present maps of the emissions reductions associated with the 2007 Control
Case versus the 2007 Base Case inventory. For 2020, Figures VII-20 through VII-27 present the
maps for the Base Case inventory, and Figures VII-28 through VII-30 present maps of the
emissions reductions associated with the 2020 Control Case versus the 2020 Base Case
inventory. For 2030, Figures VII-31 through VD-38 present the maps for the Base Case
inventory, and Figures VD-39 through VD-41 present maps of the emissions reductions
associated with the 2030 Control Case versus the 2030 Base Case inventory.
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CHAPTER VIM
REFERENCES
AAMA, 1996: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, "Fuel Volatility Survey 1996,"
Washington, DC, 1996.
BEA, 1995: Bureau of Economic Analysis, "Regional State Projections of Economic Activity
and Population to 2045," U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, July 1995.
BOC, 1992: Bureau of the Census, "1990 Census of Population, Volume 1 Characteristics of
Population, Chapter B Number of Inhabitants," U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington,
DC, July 1992.
DOE, 1998: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy
Information Administration, "Annual Energy Outlook 1999, with Projections through 2020,"
DOE/EIA-0383(99). December 1998.
EIA, 1996: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Fuel Oil and
Kerosene Sales," Washington, DC, DOE/EIA-0380. 1996.
EPA, 1991: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, "Procedures for Preparing Emissions Projections," Research Triangle Park, NC,
EPA-450/4-91-019. July 1991.
EPA, 1997: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "Locomotive
Emission Standards - Regulatory Support Document (RSD)," Ann Arbor, MI. April 1997.
EPA, 1998a: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Assessment and
Modeling Division, "Exhaust Emission Factors for Nonroad Engine Modeling -
Compression Ignition," Report No. NR-009A, Ann Arbor MI. June 1998.
EPA, 1998b: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, "National Air Pollutant Emission Trends Procedures Document, 1900-1996,"
EPA-454/R-98-008, Research Triangle Park, NC, May 1998.
EPA, 1999a: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Assessment and
Modeling Division, "Exhaust Emission Factors for Nonroad Engine Modeling - Spark
Ignition," Report No. NR-OlOb, EPA420-R-99-009, Ann Arbor MI. March 1999.
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REFERENCES (continued)
EPA, 1999b: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality, Planning and
Standards, "Procedures Document for National Emissions Inventory, Volume I: Criteria Air
Pollutants 1900-1999," Research Triangle Park, NC. September 2000.
EPA, 1999c: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality, Planning and
Standards, "Procedures for Developing Base Year and Future Year Mass and Modeling
Inventories for the Tier 2 Final Rulemaking," EPA420-R-99-034, Research Triangle Park, NC.
September 1999.
EPA, 2000a: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, "National Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900-1998," EPA-454/R-00-002,
Research Triangle Park, NC. March 2000.
EPA, 2000b: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Changes to the NONROAD model for the
April 2000 Version Used in Support of the 2007 Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Rule," EPA
Memorandum from the Nonroad Engine Emissions Modeling Team to Docket A-99-06.
May 31,2000.
FAA, 1998a: Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, "FAA
Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years, 1998-2009." March 1998.
FAA, 1998b: Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, "Long
Range Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2010, 2015, and 2020," FAA-APO-98-9. June 1998.
FHWA, 1990: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, "Highway
Performance Monitoring System Field Manual," Washington, DC. December 1990.
FHWA, 1997: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1996
Highway Statistics, Office of Highway Information Management, Washington, DC, 1997
(http://fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/1996/index.html).
Grosjean, D. and J.H. Seinfeld, 1989: "Parameterization of the Formation Potential of Secondary
Organic Aerosols," Atmospheric Environment, Volume 23, No. 8, pp. 1733-1747. 1989.
Harvey, 1983: Craig A. Harvey, Robert J. Garbe, Thomas M. Baines, Joseph H. Somers, Karl H.
Hellman, and Penny M. Carey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "A Study of the
Potential Impact of Some Unregulated Motor Vehicle Emissions," SAE Technical Paper
Series 830987, presented at the Passenger Car Meeting, Dearborn, Michigan. June 6-9,
1983.
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REFERENCES (continued)
Pechan-Avanti, 1997a: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "Ozone Transport Assessment Group
(OTAG) Emissions Inventory Development Report, Volume HI: Projections and Controls,"
draft prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. June 1997.
Pechan-Avanti, 1997b: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "2010 Clean Air Act Amendment Baseline
Emission Projections for the Integrated Ozone, Particulate Matter, and Regional Haze Cost
Analysis," prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. July 17, 1997.
Pechan-Avanti, 1998: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "Emission Projections for the Clean Air Act
Section 812 Prospective Analysis," prepared for Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge,
MA. June 1998.
Pechan-Avanti, 2000: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "Development of National Emission Trends
(NET) Data for F Y2000, Technical Memorandum, Task 2, Development of Quality
Assurance (QA) Plan," prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, Emission Factors and Inventory Group, Research Triangle
Park, NC. March 2000. EPA Contract Number 68-D7-0067; Work Assignment Number 3-
12.
Stella, 1999: Gregory Stella, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, Emission Factors and Inventory Group, e-mail transmission to Erica
Laich, The Pechan-Avanti Group, providing information on monthly percentage profiles by
State, prime mover, and fuel for use in developing June and August daily heat input and
emissions to EGU inventory. July 21, 1999.
Stella, 2000: Greg Stella, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Emission Factors and Inventory Group, e-mail transmission to Frank Divita,
The Pechan-Avanti Group, providing ranges for stack flow rate, temperature, diameter,
height, and velocity to identify values outside of ranges for correcting stack parameter values
in point source inventory. May 9, 2000.
Somers, 1997a: Joseph Somers, Office of Mobile Sources, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, "Major Modeling Elements for Operating I/M Programs,," table provided to E.H.
Pechan & Associates, Inc., July 10, 1997.
Somers, 1997b: Joseph Somers, Office of Mobile Sources, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, "State Winter Oxygenated Fuel Programs," table provided to E.H. Pechan &
Associates, Inc. February 25, 1997.
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REFERENCES (continued)
USD A, 1997: U.S. Department of Agriculture, "1997 Census of Agriculture Geographic Area
Series, Volume 1, 1A, IB, 1C; CD ROM Set." Issued June 1999. AC97-CD-VOL1-1A, IB,
and 1C.
USD A, 1998: U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board, Office of the
Chief Economist, "USDA - Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007," Staff Report No.
WOAB-98-1. 1998.
USDA, 2000a: U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service,
"Published Estimates Data Base," located at www.nass.usda.gov:81/idepb.
USDA, 2000b: U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board, "USDA
Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009," Staff Report No. WAOB-2000-1.
February 2000.
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