United States Air and Radiation EPA420-R-00-020 Environmental Protection October 2000 Agency oEPA Procedures for Developing Base Year and Future Year Mass and Modeling Inventories for The Heavy- Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel (HDD) Rulemaking > Printed on Recycled Paper ------- EPA420-R-00-020 October 2000 for for Mr. Gregory Stella (MD-14) Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Prepared for EPA by E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. 3622 Lyckan Parkway, Suite 2002 Durham, NC 27707 and 5528-B Hempstead Way Springfield, VA 22151 September 29, 2000 EPA Contract No. 68-D7-0067 Work Assignment No. 3-15 Pechan Report No. 00.09.002/9008-315 (Rev.) ------- CONTENTS Page TABLES AND FIGURES vi ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS xi CHAPTER I BACKGROUND 1-1 CHAPTER H ELECTRICITY GENERATING UNITS (EGUs) H-l A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY H-l B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . . II-l 1. ORISID AND BLRID H-l 2. County Identifiers D-3 3. Latitude and Longitude n-3 4. Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Coordinates n-3 5. SCC H-3 6. Stack Parameters H-3 7. Emissions n-3 8. New Units H-5 C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES H-5 1. Mass Emission Inventory H-5 2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files D-5 3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files D-6 CHAPTER HI NON-EGU POINT SOURCES ffi-1 A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY ffi-1 B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . ffi-1 1. Growth Assumptions ffi-1 2. Control Assumptions ID-5 C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES m-11 1. Mass Emission Inventories ffi-11 2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files ffi-11 3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files ffi-11 in ------- CONTENTS (continued) CHAPTER IV STATIONARY AREA SOURCES IV-1 A. 1996 BASE YEAR EMISSIONS IV-1 B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR EMISSIONS IV-1 1. Growth Assumptions IV-1 2. Control Assumptions IV-6 C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES IV-14 1. Mass Emission Inventories IV-14 2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files IV-14 3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files IV-14 CHAPTER V NONROAD SOURCES V-l A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY V-l 1. NONROAD Model Equipment Categories V-l 2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and Locomotives V-3 3. Methodologies for NH3 and SOA V-4 B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . V-5 1. Nonroad Model Equipment Categories V-5 2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and Locomotives V-10 3. Methodologies forNH3 and SOA V-10 C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES V-l 1 CHAPTER VI ON-HIGHWAY VEHICLE SOURCES VI-1 A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY VI-1 1. Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs VI-4 2. RFG VI-4 3. Oxygenated Gasoline VI-4 4. Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Programs VI-4 5. MOBILES to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-9 B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES . . VI-15 1. Growth Assumptions VI-15 2. Base Case Control Assumptions VI-15 3. Control Case Emission Reductions VI-20 IV ------- CONTENTS (continued) C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES VI-20 1. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files VI-20 2. EPS 2.5 and Mass Emission Inventory - File Structures VI-26 CHAPTER VII EMISSION SUMMARIES AND COMPARISONS VH-1 CHAPTER VHI REFERENCES VIH-1 v ------- TABLES AND FIGURES Table II-1 Data Elements Provided in EGU Projection Files IPM Parsed Data Sets D-2 II-2 HDDV Default Parameters for Utility Boilers U-4 II-3 Model Plant Parameters for Projected New Utility Units by Type D-6 II-4 EGU Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files D-6 II-5 Structure for 1996 EGU Mass Emissions File U-7 II-6 Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU Mass Emissions Files U-10 II-7 1996 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure U-12 II-8 2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure U-13 m-1 BEA National GSP Growth Forecasts IU-3 III-2 Point Source CAA Baseline Control Assumptions ffi-6 III-3 Point Source MACT Control Assumptions ffi-7 IH-4 Non-VOC Related MACT Assumptions IU-9 IH-5 NOX SIP Call Control Application IH-10 III-6 Non-EGU Point Source Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files 111-12 IH-7 Structure for 1996 Base Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions File ffl-13 IH-8 Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 Future Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions Files IH-15 IH-9 Non-EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IE-IS m-10 Non-EGU EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IU-19 IV-1 BEA Growth Categories Assigned by Major Source Category: Area Sources . . . . IV-2 IV-2 Animal Husbandry Categories and Growth Assumptions IV-6 IV-3 Area Source VOC Control Measure Assumptions IV-7 IV-4 Residential Wood Combustion Control Efficiency Assumptions by Pollutant and Future Year Inventory IV-9 IV-5 Vehicle Refueling VOC Control Efficiency Assumptions Included in the Future Year Inventories IV-9 IV-6 Counties with Stage II Controls IV-10 IV-7 Area/Nonroad Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files IV-15 IV-8 Area/Nonroad Mass Emissions Inventory File Structure IV-16 IV-9 Source Categories to which Crustal Factor was Applied to PM10 and PM2 5 Emissions in EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files IV-18 IV-10 Area/Nonroad EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IV-19 IV-11 Area/Nonroad EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure IV-20 V-la Temperature and RVP Inputs for National NONROAD Model Runs V-2 V-lb Diesel Fuel Sulfur Input Values for National NONROAD Model Runs V-2 V-2 Surrogate SCC Assignments for New SCCs in June 2000 NONROAD Model V-4 V-3 Growth Indicators/Projection Methods for Nonroad Sources V-6 V-4 Steady-State Emission Factors for CI Engines in the NONROAD Model V-8 V-5 Emission Factors for SI Engines Below 25 hp V-9 VI-1 HPMS to MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category Assignments VI-2 vi ------- TABLES AND FIGURES (continued) VI-2 National 1996 VMT by Vehicle Type for HDD Analysis VI-2 VI-3 Average Speeds by Road Type and Vehicle Type Miles per Hour) VI-3 VI-4 Counties Modeled with Federal Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) VI-5 VI-5 Oxygenated Gasoline Modeling Parameters VI-8 VI-6 Exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-11 VI-7 NOX MOBILESb to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-12 VI-8 NOX Full Usage Air Conditioning Adjustment Factors VI-13 VI-9 HDDV Base Case Adjustment Factors VI-14 VI-10 National VMT Proj ections and VMT Fractions by Vehicle Type for HDD Analysis VI-15 VI-11 I/M Performance Standard Program Inputs VI-16 VI-12 Evaporative VOC MOBILESb to MOBILE6 Adjustment Factors VI-21 VI-13 PM Adjustment Factors VI-22 VI-14 SO2 Adjustment Factors VI-22 VI-15 HDD Control Case Emission Reduction Percentages VI-23 VI-16 Structure for VMT Files (OFNVMTyy.TXT) VI-24 VI-17 Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (NTVMIXyy.TXT) VI-25 VI-18 Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (OFNSPyy.TXT) VI-27 VI-19 Structure for Adjustment Factor Files VI-27 VI-20 Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source EPS Data Files VI-28 VI-21 Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source Mass Emissions Data Files VI-31 VII-1 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 1996 Base Year VII-3 VII-2 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2007 Base Case VII-6 VII-3 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2007 Control Case VH-9 VII-4 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Reduction for 2007 Control Case VII-12 VII-5 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2020 Base Case VH-13 VII-6 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2020 Control Case VH-16 VII-7 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Reduction for 2020 Control Case VII-19 VII-8 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2030 Base Case VH-20 VII-9 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions for 2030 Control Case VH-23 VII-10 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Reduction for 2030 Control Case VII-26 VII-11 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 1996 Base Year VH-27 VII-12 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2007 Base Case VH-32 VII-13 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2007 Control Case VH-37 VII-14 Annual State-Level Emissions Reduction by Major Source Category for 2007 Control Case VH-39 VII ------- TABLES AND FIGURES (continued) VII-15 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2020 Base Case VH-41 VII-16 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2020 Control Case VH-46 VII-17 Annual State-Level Emissions Reduction by Major Source Category for 2020 Control Case VH-48 VII-18 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2030 Base Case VH-50 VII-19 Annual State-Level Emissions by Major Source Category for 2030 Control Case VH-55 VII-20 Annual State-Level Emissions Reduction by Major Source Category for 2030 Control Case VH-57 VII-21 Annual National HDD Rulemaking Emissions Summary VD-59 Vlll ------- TABLES AND FIGURES (continued) Figure VII- 1 VII-2 VII-3 VII-4 VII-5 VII-6 VII-7 VII-8 VII-9 VII- 10 VII- 11 VII- 12 VII- 13 VII- 14 VII- 15 VII- 16 VII- 17 VII- 18 VII- 19 VII-20 VII-2 1 VII-22 VII-23 VII-24 VII-25 VII-26 VII-27 VII-28 VII-29 VII-3 0 VII-3 1 VII-32 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO A Emissions 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM25 Emissions 1996 County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . . County-Level Density Map of Annual SOA Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . . County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions for 2007 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emission Reductions 2007 Control Case vs. 2007 Base Case County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emission Reductions 2007 Control Case vs. 2007 Base Case County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emission Reductions 2007 Control Case vs. 2007 Base Case County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . . County-Level Density Map of Annual SOA Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . . County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions for 2020 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emission Reductions 2020 Control Case vs. 2020 Base Case County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emission Reductions 2020 Control Case vs. 2020 Base Case County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emission Reductions 2020 Control Case vs. 2020 Base Case County-Level Density Map of Annual VOC Emissions for 2030 Base Case . . County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emissions for 2030 Base Case . . VH-60 . . VH-61 VH-62 . . VH-63 VH-64 . . VH-65 VH-66 . . VH-67 . . VH-68 . . VH-69 . . vn-70 . . vn-7i . . VH-72 . . VH-73 . . VH-74 . . VH-75 . VH-76 . VH-77 . VH-78 . . VH-79 . . vn-so . . vn-8i . . VH-82 . . VH-83 . . VH-84 . . VH-85 . . VH-86 . VH-87 . VH-88 . VH-89 . . vn-90 . . vn-9i IX ------- TABLES AND FIGURES (continued) VII-33 County-Level Density Map of Annual CO Emissions for 2030 Base Case VH-92 VII-34 County-Level Density Map of Annual SOA Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VH-93 VII-35 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emissions for 2030 Base Case VII-94 VII-36 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM10 Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VH-95 VII-37 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VII-96 VII-38 County-Level Density Map of Annual NH3 Emissions for 2030 Base Case .... VII-97 VII-39 County-Level Density Map of Annual NOX Emission Reductions 2030 Control Case vs. 2030 Base Case VH-98 VII-40 County-Level Density Map of Annual SO2 Emission Reductions 2030 Control Case vs. 2030 Base Case VH-99 VII-41 County-Level Density Map of Annual PM2 5 Emission Reductions 2030 Control Case vs. 2030 Base Case VH-100 x ------- ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AAMA ASTM BEA CAA CI CNG CO DOE EGU EIA EMS EPA EPS F FAA FCM FIPS ft ft/min g/bhp-hr GSP HC HDD HDDV HDGV HON hp HPMS I/M IPM LDDT LDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDGV LEV LNB LPG LTOs m MACT American Automobile Manufacturers Association American Society for Testing and Materials Bureau of Economic Analysis Clean Air Act compression-ignition compressed natural gas carbon monoxide U.S. Department of Energy electric generating unit Energy Information Administration Emissions Modeling System U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Emissions Preprocessor System Fahrenheit Federal Aviation Administration Fuel Consumption Model Federal Information Processing Standard feet feet per minute grams per brake horsepower-hour Gross State Product hydrocarbon heavy-duty diesel heavy-duty diesel vehicle heavy-duty gasoline vehicle Hazardous Organic NESHAP horsepower Highway Performance Monitoring System Inspection and Maintenance Integrated Planning Model light-duty diesel truck light-duty diesel vehicle light-duty gasoline truck (less than 6,000 pounds in weight) light-duty gasoline truck (6,000 to 8,500 pounds in weight) light-duty gasoline vehicle Low-Emission Vehicle low-NOx burner liquid petroleum gas Landing-Takeoff Operations meter maximum achievable control technology XI ------- ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS (continued) MC motorcycle MMBtu million British thermal units NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NESHAP National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants NET National Emission Trends NH3 ammonia NLEV National Low Emission Vehicle NMHC nonmethane hydrocarbon NMOG Nonmethane Organic Gas NOX oxides of nitrogen OBD on-board diagnostic OTAG Ozone Transport Assessment Group OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality OTC Ozone Transport Commission OTR Ozone Transport Region PM particulate matter PM10 primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 micrometers PM2 5 primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers POTWs Publicly-Owned Treatment Works ppm parts per million psi pounds per square inch RACT reasonably available control technology REMSAD Regulatory Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition RFG reformulated gasoline RSD Regulatory Support Document RVP Reid vapor pressure SCCs Source Classification Codes SCR selective catalytic reduction SI spark-ignition SIC Standard Industrial Classification SIP State Implementation Plan SNCR Selective Noncatalytic Reduction SO2 sulfur dioxide SOA secondary organic aerosols SOCMI Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry SOX oxides of sulfur SSD summer season daily TLEV transitional LEV XII ------- ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS (continued) tpd tons per day tpy tons per year TSDFs treatment, storage, and disposal facilities UAM-V Urban Airshed Model ULEV Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle U.S. United States USD A U.S. Department of Agriculture UTM Universal Transverse Mercator VMT vehicle miles traveled VOC volatile organic compound Xlll ------- CHAPTER I BACKGROUND To assist future State and Federal implementation of the Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel (HDD) mobile source emission standards, the United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing national annual and temporal emission inventories and applying the Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V) and Regulatory Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition (REMSAD) to examine the regional ozone and particulate matter (PM) concentration response to a series of emission control strategies. The purpose of this report is to describe the procedures and assumptions used to develop the mass emissions inventories and the emissions input files for the Emissions Modeling System (EMS-95) and Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS 2.5) air quality model preprocessors. The emission inventories developed to support the HDD rulemaking include the following: • 1996 Base Year; • 2007 Base Case; • 2007 Control Case; • 2020 Base Case; • 2020 Control Case; • 2030 Base Case; and • 2030 Control Case. These national inventories were prepared for all 50 States at the county level for mobile highway and mobile nonroad sources. They were prepared for the 48 contiguous States (48 State) at the county-level for electric generating unit (EGU), non-EGU point, and stationary area sources. The inventories contain annual and typical summer season day (SSD) emissions for the following pollutants: oxides of nitrogen (NOX), volatile organic compounds (VOC), carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of sulfur (SOX), primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 micrometers and 2.5 micrometers (PM10 and PM25), ammonia (NH3), and secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The 2007, 2020, and 2030 Base Case inventories are prepared by applying growth and control assumptions to the 1996 Base Year inventory. The 2007, 2020, and 2030 Control Case inventories are developed from the 2007, 2020, and 2030 Base Case inventories, respectively, by applying HDD control assumptions to the on-highway vehicle and nonroad emission source sectors. The growth and control assumptions used to prepare the 2007, 2020, and 2030 inventories are documented in this report. Chapters II through VI of this report document the inventories for the EGU, non-EGU point, stationary area, nonroad, and on-highway vehicle source sectors. The chapter for each sector 1-1 ------- documents the procedures and assumptions applied to prepare the mass emissions inventories for the 1996 Base Year; 2007, 2020, and 2030 Base Cases; and 2007, 2020, and 2030 Control Cases. Each chapter also discusses the procedures and assumptions applied to prepare the emissions input files for the EMS-95 and EPS 2.5 air quality model preprocessors. Chapter VII provides 48-State emissions summaries and density maps for the emissions inventories. 1-2 ------- CHAPTER II ELECTRICITY GENERATING UNITS (EGUs) A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY The 1996 base year emissions inventory for EGUs is the 1996 National Emission Trends (NET) point source inventory version 3.12 (EPA, 2000a). This inventory includes both annual and typical summer season day (SSD) emissions for NOX, VOC, CO, SOX, PM10, PM25, and NH3. SOA emissions were added to the inventory by applying fractional aerosol coefficients based on speciation of VOC emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). Inventory records with Source Classification Codes (SCCs) of lOlxxxxx and 201xxxxx were extracted from the NET inventory to develop the 1996 EGU inventory. B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES Projection year unit-level output files from the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) were provided to Pechan by EPA for the EGU sector for 2007 and 2020. The 2020 IPM output file was also used to represent EGU projections for 2030. These files include heat input, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, NOX emissions, and unit characteristics such as prime mover (boiler, gas turbine), primary fuel, bottom type, and firing type. This section focuses on the steps used to create the future year mass emissions inventories for 2007, 2020, and 2030, by adding to the IPM files emissions for VOC, CO, PM10, PM2 5, NH3, and SOA, as well as data elements needed for modeling (e.g., county codes, coordinates, and stack parameters). Note that the 2030 mass emissions file is identical to the 2020 file. The data elements included in the original IPM parsed data sets are shown in Table D-l. The data sets include unit-level information for all existing or known planned units. For new units (additional capacity needed to meet generation demands), state-level estimates by plant type (prime mover) and fuel type are provided. Details about the additional or updated items for the final 2007, 2020, and 2030 emission files are discussed below. 1. ORISID AND BLRID Unique utility plant (ORISID) and unit (BLRID) identifiers are provided in the original IPM parsed data set. These two variables were included in the emission inventories but were not reviewed for accuracy because of time and resource constraints associated with preparing the inventories for all sectors. n-i ------- Table 11-1 Data Elements Provided in EGU Projection Files IPM Parsed Data Sets Data Elements Description Unit ID Plant Name Plant Type State Name State Code County Name County Code ORIS Code Blr Capacity July Day Heat Fuel Type Bottom Firing Existing SO2/NOX Controls Retrofit SO2/NOX Controls Typical July Day NOX Ash Content Fuel Sum Fuel Tot NOX Sum NOX Tot SO? Tot IPM Unit ID Plant name Combined cycle, coal steam, oil/gas steam, turbine, other State name Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) State code County name (sometimes missing) FIPS county code (sometimes missing) ORIS plant code for those units assigned codes, IPM plant code otherwise ORIS boiler or unit code where available, otherwise IPM unit code Boiler/unit capacity (MW) July day heat input (109 Btu/day) Primary fuel burned: coal, gas, natural gas, none, refuse, waste coal, wood waste Boiler bottom type: dry, wet, other, unknown, or blank Firing type: cell, cyclone, tangential, vertical, well, wet, other, or unknown Existing control for SO2 and/or NOX - scrubbed, unscrubbed, or blank Coal to combined cycle, gas reburn, oil/gas selective noncatalytic reduction (SNCR), oil/gas to combined cycle, retirement, coal selective catalytic reduction (SCR), coal scrubber, coal SNCR, or blank Typical July day NOX emissions (tons/day) Coal ash content (for fuel type - coal only) 5-month summer heat input (1012 Btu) Annual heat input (1012 Btu) 5-month NOX emissions (103 Ton) Annual NOX emissions (103 Ton) Annual SO2 emissions (103 Ton) H-2 ------- 2. County Identifiers For those units with no county identifiers, counties available in cross-reference files developed for the NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call EGU file and other prior analyses were utilized to identify and assign the county code. Plants were matched to other inventories by State and plant name in some cases. Others were matched to Energy Information Administration (EIA)-860 planned unit files or to North American Electric Reliability Council reports to identify the county. 3. Latitude and Longitude Latitude and longitude coordinates were assigned at the plant level and were taken from a data base file developed by Pechan. This file includes coordinates from other inventories, including the NET inventory and the Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) inventory, where units were matched to these inventories at the boiler or plant level. For units that have ORIS IDs that did match to this file, county centroids were assigned. 4. Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Coordinates The UTM coordinates and zone corresponding to the latitude and longitude were determined by using a conversion program provided by EPA. 5. SCC The SCC is needed to determine the appropriate emission rates to use for the additional pollutants and to incorporate default stack parameters for units that do not match to existing inventories. SCCs were assigned by first matching plant (ORISID) and unit (BLRID) identifiers to existing inventories and then by assigning SCCs based on the unit, fuel, firing, and bottom types. In cases where SCCs taken from other inventories indicate a fuel other than that specified in the IPM unit-level file, SCCs were updated based on the indicated fuel, unit, bottom, and firing types. 6. Stack Parameters Stack parameters were added to the EGU file by matching to other inventories. For units where matches to other inventories could not be made, default parameters were assigned by SCC. These default parameters are shown in Table D-2. Stack flow rate, temperature, diameter, height, and velocity were quality assured using the ranges supplied by EPA (Stella, 2000); all stack flow values were then recalculated using the algorithm specified in a technical memorandum to EPA (Pechan-Avanti, 2000). 7. Emissions Emissions of VOC, CO, PM10, PM25, and NH3 were added to the inventory by applying average fuel-specific heat content and updated emission rates (based on updated AP-42 n-3 ------- Table 11-2 HDDV Default Parameters for Utility Boilers sec 10100101 10100201 10100202 10100203 10100204 10100212 10100217 10100221 10100222 10100223 10100226 10100301 10100302 10100303 10100401 10100404 10100601 10100604 10101201 20100201 20100202 Primary Fuel Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Coal Oil Oil Gas Gas Waste Gas Gas PM10 Rate (Ibs/MMBtu) 0.0920*Ash 1 0.1000*Ash 0.0885*Ash 0.0100*Ash 0.5077 0.0885*Ash 0.3000 0.1000*Ash 0.0885*Ash 0.0100*Ash 0.0885*Ash 0.1298*Ash 0.1643*Ash 0.0621 *Ash 0.0393 0.0393 0.0018 0.0018 0.6648 0.0419 0.0095 CO Rate (Ibs/MMBtu) 0.0240 0.0192 0.0192 0.0192 0.1923 0.0192 0.6923 0.0192 0.0192 0.0192 0.0192 0.0179 0.0429 0.0429 0.0333 0.0333 0.0800 0.0229 0.0006 0.1095 0.3800 voc Rate (Ibs/MMBtu) 0.0028 0.0015 0.0023 0.0042 0.0019 0.0023 0.0019 0.0015 0.0023 0.0042 0.0023 0.0050 0.0050 0.0050 0.0051 0.0051 0.0052 0.0052 0.0769 0.0010 0.1105 Stack Temp. (degrees F) 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 300 300 300 300 175 300 300 Stack Height (feet) 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 290 290 280 280 570 280 280 Stack Diameter (feet) 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12 12 12 12 24 12 12 Stack Flow (ft3/sec) 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 16286 3619 3619 2601 2601 16286 2601 2601 ' Ash = coal ash content as a decimal; PM10 rate is calculated by multiplying the number by the ash content of the coal. n-4 ------- uncontrolled emission factors) to the reported heat input for each unit. For PM10 and PM2 5, the reported ash content was also utilized along with control efficiency data obtained from other inventories. A default PM control efficiency of 90 percent was applied to all coal-fired units which did not match to other inventories. SOA emissions were added to the inventory. SOA emissions were calculated using fractional aerosol coefficients based on speciation of the VOC emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). 8. New Units The IPM data sets provide projected heat input from new units by prime mover and fuel type. This projected heat input was divided into individual new units based on the model plant parameters shown in Table II-3. New units were then allocated to existing unit sites based on a hierarchy that avoids ozone nonattainment areas (Pechan-Avanti, 1997a). After siting the units, SCCs were assigned based on prime mover and fuel type. Default stack parameters and emissions were added using the same methods applied for existing units. Since the new units are defined as "new" after 1996, and 1998 data for new units were available, some new units could be matched to the 1998 data to obtain SCCs. C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES After adding the additional parameters to the IPM unit-level file, the final mass and modeling inventories were prepared. June and August daily heat input and emissions were added to the mass and EMS-95 files for ozone modeling (the IPM file contains July heat input and emissions). This was based on monthly percentage profiles by State, prime mover, and fuel provided by EPA (Stella, 1999). The 5-month (May through September) heat input was allocated to the month and then divided by the number of days in the month. Typical SSD emissions were allocated using the same procedure, assuming that the emission rate remained the same across these 5 months. Table U-4 documents the names of the EGU mass and modeling files. Because the 2020 IPM output file was used to represent EGU projections for 2030, the mass and modeling files for 2020 and 2030 are identical. 1. Mass Emission Inventory The structure for the base year and projection year mass emission inventories is shown in Tables U-5 and II-6. The structures differ since the base year inventory was taken directly from the NET, while the projection year inventory was based on the IPM data set, which provides different information in some cases. 2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files The EPS 2.5 emissions processor input files were derived directly from the mass emission files, utilizing the annual emissions. The structures for the base year and projection year files are shown in Tables II-7 and II-8. H-5 ------- 3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files The structure for the EGU EMS-95 emissions processor input files is identical to the non- EGU point source files as shown in Table ID-10 in Chapter HI. In order to eliminate potential duplicate identifiers, the letter "e" was added to all stack and segment IDs in the EGU EMS-95 input files. A weekly profile code of 8 was utilized for all EGU sources, consistent with files prepared for the NOX SIP Call analysis. This assumes operation 7 days a week, with slightly lower utilization on the weekends. A daily profile code of 33 was applied for all EGU sources. Table 11-3 Model Plant Parameters for Projected New Utility Units by Type Plant Parameters Fuel Type Unit Capacity (megawatts) sec Stack Height [feet (ft)] Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (F) Exhaust Gas Flow Rate (ft3/sec) Stack Gas Velocity (ft/sec) Combined Cycle Natural Gas 225 20100201 280 12 300 2,601 23 Gas Turbine Natural Gas 80 20100201 280 12 300 2,601 23 Coal Coal 500 10100201 570 24 175 16,286 36 Table II-4 EGU Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files Year 1996 2007 2020 2030 Mass EG96MS3H.DBF EG07MS2H.DBF EG20MS2H.DBF EG30MS2H.DBF EPS 2.5 EG96EP2H.TXT EG07EP2H.TXT EG20EP2H.TXT EG30EP2H.TXT EMS95 E696EM2H.TGZ E796EM2H.TGZ E896EM2H.TGZ E607EM2H.TGZ E707EM2H.TGZ E807EM2H.TGZ E620EM2H.TGZ E720EM2H.TGZ E820EM2H.TGZ E630EM2H.TGZ E730EM2H.TGZ E830EM2H.TGZ Comments ForEMS95, June day ForEMS95, July day For EMS95, August day ForEMS95, June day ForEMS95, July day For EMS95, August day ForEMS95, June day ForEMS96, July day For EMS95, August day ForEMS95, June day ForEMS95, July day For EMS95, August day n-6 ------- Table 11-5 Structure for 1996 EGU Mass Emissions File Variable YEAR FIPSST FIPSCNTY PLANTID PLANTID5 POINTID POINTID5 STACKID STACKID3 ORISID BLRID SEGMENT PLANT sec STKHGT STKDIAM STKTEMP STKFLOW STKVEL BOILCAP CAPJJNITS WINTHRU SPRTHRU SUMTHRU FALTHRU HOURS START_HR DAYS WEEKS THRUPUT MAXRATE HEATCON SULFCON ASHCON NETDC SIC LATC LONG VOC_EMF Type C C C C C C C C C C C C C C N N N N N N C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 2 3 15 5 15 5 12 3 6 6 2 40 10 4 6 4 10 9 8 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 11 12 8 5 5 9 4 9 9 11 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 2 3 0 4 4 4 Description Year of Data FIPS State Code FIPS County Code State Plant ID State Plant ID (5 Digit) Point ID Point ID (5 Digit) Stack ID Stack ID (3 Digit) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Plant ID Boiler ID Segment ID Plant Name sec Stack Height (ft) Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (degrees F) Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second) Stack Velocity (ft/sec) Boiler Design Capacity Capacity Unit Code Winter Thruput (%) Spring Thruput (%) Summer Thruput (%) Fall Thruput (%) Hours per Day Hourly Start Time Days per Week Weeks per Year Throughput Rate (SCC units/year) Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day) Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit) Sulfur Content (mass percent) Ash Content (mass percent) Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW) Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Code Latitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees) VOC Emission Factor (SCC units) n-7 ------- Table 11-5 (continued) Variable NOX_EMF CO_EMF S02_EMF PM10_EMF PM25_EMF NH3_EMF VOC_CE NOX_CE CO_CE SO2_CE PM10_CE PM25_CE NH3_CE VOC_CPRI NOX_CPRI CO_CPRI SO2_CPRI PM10_CPRI PM25_CPRI NH3_CPRI VOC_CSEC NOX_CSEC CO_CSEC S02_CSEC PM10_CSEC PM25_CSEC NH3_CSEC VOC_ANN NOX_ANN CO_ANN S02_ANN PM10_ANN PM25_ANN SOA_ANN NH3_ANN VOC_OSD06 NOXJDSD06 CO_OSD06 S02_OSD06 PM10_OSD06 Type N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 11 11 11 11 11 11 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Decimals 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Description NOX Emission Factor (SCC units) CO Emission Factor (SCC units) SO2 Emission Factor (SCC units) PM10 Emission Factor (SCC units) PM25 Emission Factor (SCC units) NH3 Emission Factor (SCC units) VOC Control Efficiency (%) NOX Control Efficiency (%) CO Control Efficiency (%) SO2 Control Efficiency (%) PM10 Control Efficiency (%) PM25 Control Efficiency (%) NH3 Control Efficiency (%) VOC Primary Control Equipment Code NOX Primary Control Equipment Code CO Primary Control Equipment Code SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code CO Secondary Control Equipment Code SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code Annual VOC (tons) Annual NOX (tons) Annual CO (tons) Annual SO2 (tons) Annual PM10 (tons) Annual PM25 (tons) Annual SOA (tons) Annual NH3 (tons) June Day VOC (tons) June Day NOX (tons) June Day CO (tons) June Day SO2 (tons) June Day PM10 (tons) n-8 ------- Table 11-5 (continued) Variable PM25JDSD06 SOA_OSD06 NH3JDSD06 VOC_OSD07 NOX_OSD07 CO_OSD07 S02JDSD07 PM10_OSD07 PM25_OSD07 SOA_OSD07 NH3_OSD07 VOCJDSD08 NOX_OSD08 CO_OSD08 S02_OSD08 PM10_OSD08 PM25JDSD08 SOA_OSD08 NH3_OSD08 VOC_RE NOX_RE CO_RE S02_RE PM10_RE PM25_RE NH3 RE Type N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Decimals 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Description June Day PM25 (tons) June Day SOA (tons) June Day NH3 (tons) July Day VOC (tons) July Day NOX (tons) July Day CO (tons) July Day SO2 (tons) July Day PM10 (tons) July Day PM25 (tons) July Day SOA (tons) July Day NH3 (tons) August Day VOC (tons) August Day NOX (tons) August Day CO (tons) August Day SO2 (tons) August Day PM10 (tons) August Day PM25 (tons) August Day SOA (tons) August Day NH3 (tons) VOC Rule Effectiveness (%) NOX Rule Effectiveness (%) CO Rule Effectiveness (%) SO2 Rule Effectiveness (%) PM10 Rule Effectiveness (%) PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%) NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%) n-9 ------- Table 11-6 Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU Mass Emissions Files Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY PLANTID POINTID STAC KID SEGMENT ORISID BLRID PLANT sec STKHGT STKDIAM STKTEMP STKFLOW STKVEL BOILCAP LAT LON UTMEAST UTMNORTH UTMZONE ANN HEAT WIN HEAT SUMHEAT JUNDHEAT JULDHEAT AUGDHEAT VOC_ANN VOC_WIN VOC_SUM VOC_OSD06 VOC_OSD07 VOC_OSD08 NOX_ANN NOX_WIN NOX_SUM NOX_OSD06 NOX_OSD07 NOX_OSD08 CO_ANN CO_WIN Type C C C C C C C C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 15 15 12 2 6 6 40 10 4 6 4 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 2 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code State Plant ID Point ID Stack ID Segment ID DOE 4-Digit ORIS Plant Code Boiler ID Plant Name sec Stack Height (ft) Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (degrees F) Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second) Stack Velocity (ft/sec) Boiler Design Capacity Latitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees) UTM Horizontal (kilometers) UTM Vertical (kilometers) UTM Zone Annual Heat Input (MMBtu) 7-Month Winter Heat Input (MMBtu) 5-Month Summer Heat Input (MMBtu) June Daily Heat Input (MMBtu) July Daily Heat Input (MMBtu) August Daily Heat Input (MMBtu) Annual VOC (tons) 7-Month Winter VOC (tons) 5-Month Summer VOC (tons) June Day VOC (tons) July Day VOC (tons) August Day VOC (tons) Annual NOX (tons) 7-Month Winter NOX (tons) 5-Month Summer NOX (tons) June Day NOX (tons) July Day NOX (tons) August Day NOX (tons) Annual CO (tons) 7-Month Winter CO (tons) 11-10 ------- Table 11-6 (continued) Variable CO_SUM CO_OSD06 COJDSD07 CO_OSD08 SO2_ANN S02_WIN S02_SUM SO2_OSD06 SO2_OSD07 S02_OSD08 PM10_ANN PM10_WIN PM10_SUM PM10_OSD06 PM10_OSD07 PM10_OSD08 PM25_ANN PM25_WIN PM25_SUM PM25_OSD06 PM25_OSD07 PM25JDSD08 NH3_ANN NH3_WIN NH3_SUM NH3_OSD06 NH3JDSD07 NH3_OSD08 SOA_ANN SOA_WIN SOA_SUM SOAJDSD06 SOA_OSD07 SOA OSD08 Type N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Decimals 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Description 5-Month Summer CO (tons) June Day CO (tons) July Day CO (tons) August Day CO (tons) Annual SO2 (tons) 7-Month Winter SO2 (tons) 5-Month Summer SO2 (tons) June Day SO2 (tons) July Day SO2 (tons) August Day SO2 (tons) Annual PM10 (tons) 7-Month Winter PM10 (tons) 5-Month Summer PM10 (tons) June Day PM10 (tons) July Day PM10 (tons) August Day PM10 (tons) Annual PM25 (tons) 7-Month Winter PM25 (tons) 5-Month Summer PM25 (tons) June Day PM25 (tons) July Day PM25 (tons) August Day PM25 (tons) Annual NH3 (tons) 7-Month Winter NH3 (tons) 5-Month Summer NH3 (tons) June Day NH3 (tons) July Day NH3 (tons) August Day NH3 (tons) Annual SOA (tons) 7-Month Winter SOA (tons) 5-Month Summer SOA (tons) June Day SOA (tons) July Day SOA (tons) August Day SOA (tons) 11-11 ------- Table 11-7 1996 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY PLANTID POINTID SIC STACKID SEGMENT sec STKHGT STKDIAM STKTEMP STKFLOW WINTHRU SPRTHRU SUMTHRU FALTHRU HOURS DAYS WEEKS LATC LONG VOC NOX CO SO2 PM10 PM25 SOA NH3 Type C C C C N C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 5 5 4 3 2 8 4 6 4 10 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code State Plant ID Point ID SIC Code Stack ID Segment ID sec Stack Height (ft) Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (degrees F) Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second) Winter Thruput (%) Spring Thruput (%) Summer Thruput (%) Fall Thruput (%) Hours per Day Days per Week Weeks per Year Latitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees) Annual VOC (tons) Annual NOX (tons) Annual CO (tons) Annual SO2 (tons) Annual PM10 (tons) Annual PM25 (tons) Annual SOA (tons) Annual NH3 (tons) 11-12 ------- Table 11-8 2007, 2020, and 2030 EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure Variable ORISID BLRID SEGMENT STACKID STKHGT STKDIAM STKTEMP STKFLOW IPMCAP sec FIPSST FIPSCNTY LATC LONG WIN HEAT SUMHEAT WINVOC SUMVOC WINNOX SUMNOX WINCO SUMCO WINS02 SUMS02 WINPM10 SUMPM10 WINPM2.5 SUMPM2.5 WINNH3 SUMNH3 WINSOA SUMSOA PNAME Type C C C C N N N N N C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N C Length 6 6 2 6 4 6 4 10 9 8 2 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 30 Decimals 0 2 0 2 1 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Description ORIS Plant ID ORIS Boiler ID Segment ID Stack ID Stack Height (ft) Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (degrees F) Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per IPM Boiler Capacity (MW) sec FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Latitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees) Winter Heat Input (trillion Btu/7 second) months) Summer Heat Input (trillion Btu/5 months) Winter VOC (tons) Summer VOC (tons) Winter NOX (tons) Summer NOX Winter CO Summer CO Winter SO2 Summer SO2 Winter PM10 Summer PM10 Winter PM25 Summer PM25 Winter NH3 Summer NH3 Winter SOA Summer SOA Plant Name 11-13 ------- CHAPTER III NON-EGU POINT SOURCES A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY The 1996 base year inventory for non-EGUs is the 1996 NET point source inventory Version 3.12 (EPA, 2000a). This inventory includes both annual and typical summer season day (SSD) emissions for NOX, VOC, CO, SOX, PM10, PM2 5, and NH3. SOA emissions were added to the inventory by applying fractional aerosol coefficients based on speciation of VOC emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). Inventory records with SCCs of lOlxxxxx and 201xxxxx were excluded from the non-EGU inventory because they are included in the EGU inventory. Latitude and longitude coordinates and stack parameters were corrected for several sources. For some sources, multiple SCCs were listed under a single point, stack, and segment. New non- duplicate segment IDs were created for the mass emissions file to ensure that each record had a unique identification code for inclusion in the emissions processor input files. B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES Future year base case emissions for 2007, 2020, and 2030 were grown from the 1996 base year mass emission inventory utilizing Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Gross State Product (GSP) growth factors at the State level by 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. Control measures reflecting Clean Air Act (CAA) requirements were then incorporated. Two separate mass emissions inventories were created for each year to reflect emissions without and with the effects of the NOX SIP Call control requirements. 1. Growth Assumptions The 1995 BEA GSP projections (BEA, 1995) by 2-digit SIC code were applied to estimate changes in activity between 1996 and 2007, 2020, and 2030 for the non-EGU point source sector. For fuel combustion sectors, energy adjustment factors were also applied to the base year emission inventory. After applying the changes in activity, additional controls were added to reflect the alternative scenarios. EPA guidance for projecting emissions (EPA, 1991) lists the following economic variables (in order of preference) for projecting emissions: • product output; value added; • earnings; and • employment. m-i ------- In the absence of product output projections, EPA guidance recommends value added projections. Value added'is the difference between the value of industry outputs and inputs. BEA GSP projections represent a measure of value added, and are a fuller measure of growth than BEA's earnings projections because earnings represents only one component of GSP. GSP reflects the difference between revenues from selling a product and the amounts paid for inputs from other industries. By incorporating inputs to production, GSP reflects future changes in production processes, efficiency, and technological changes. A comparison of BEA's 1995 GSP projections and BEA's 1990 earnings projections indicates that GSP growth factors are slightly higher than the earnings data. This is most often true for capital-intensive industries (e.g., manufacturing) than for labor-intensive industries (e.g., services). Components of GSP include payments to capital. This is an important distinction to make because it implicitly reflects the effect of factor substitution in production. As discussed in EPA's projections guidance, factor substitution should be included in growth projections, making value added data preferable to earnings data for projecting emissions. The 1995 BEA industry GSP projections by State are available at the 2-digit SIC code level. For each record in the non-EGU point source 1996 base year inventory, a link was established between the State FIPS code, the SIC code, and the applicable BEA GSP growth factor. National BEA GSP annual growth rates by industry are listed in Table ffi-l. For fuel combustion sources, factors were applied to the 1996 base year emissions to account for improvements in energy efficiency between 1996 and 2007, 2020, and 2030. These factors, developed from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) publication Annual Energy Outlook 1999, account for increases in fuel and process efficiency in future years (DOE, 1998). Basically, less fuel will be needed to provide the same amount of energy (generally in the form of steam) to an industrial process and the amount of energy needed per unit output will also decrease as processes become more efficient. For example, DOE projects natural gas consumption in the commercial sector to rise from 3.392 quadrillion Btu in 1996 to 3.997 quadrillion Btu in 2020. Over this same time-frame, DOE projects commercial building square footage to increase from 59.5 billion square feet to 72.9 billion square feet. To reflect the projected change in natural gas consumed per square foot of commercial building space, natural gas energy intensity factors were calculated for 1996 and each projection year. For example, 0.2475 quadrillion Btu/square foot of natural gas is projected to be consumed in 2020 versus 0.2551 quadrillion Btu/square foot in 1996. For all commercial sector natural gas source categories, the BEA commercial sector growth factors are multiplied by 0.97, which represents the ratio of the 2020 energy intensity factor for commercial sector natural gas to the 1996 energy intensity factor for commercial natural gas. Similar ratios were calculated and applied for other fuels used in the commercial sector, and for all fuels used in the residential and industrial energy sectors. These adjustments were based on those used in the NET inventory projections (EPA, 2000a). m-2 ------- Table 111-1 BEA National GSP Growth Forecasts Industry (SIC Code) All-Industry Total Farm (01) Nonfarm (02) Agricultural services (07, 08, 09) Mining (10, 12, 13, 14) Metal mining (10) Coal mining (12) Oil and gas extraction (13) Nonmetallic minerals (14) Construction (15, 16, 17) Manufacturing (20 - 39) Durable goods Lumber and wood products (24) Furniture and fixtures (25) Stone, clay, and glass products (32) Primary metals (33) Fabricated metals (34) Industrial machinery (35) Electronic equipment (36) Motor vehicles and equipment (371) Other transportation equipment (37, excluding 371) Instruments and related products (38) Miscellaneous manufacturing (39) Nondurable Goods Food and kindred products (20) Tobacco products (21) Textile mill products (22) Apparel and other textile products (23) Paper products (26) Printing and publishing (27) Chemicals and allied products (28) Petroleum and coal products (29) Rubber and plastics products (30) Leather and leather products (31) Annual Growth (% per year) 1996 to 2007 1.8 1.8 3.8 3.2 2.6 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 3.3 2.2 1.1 2.3 1.3 1.8 1.2 -3.0 1.1 1.6 2.0 0.6 1.4 1.1 2.9 -0.1 Annual Growth (% per year) 1996 to 2020 1.5 1.5 3.2 2.7 2.1 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.8 2.6 1.9 1.0 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.1 -2.5 1.0 1.4 1.8 0.7 1.3 1.1 2.5 -0.1 Annual Growth (% per year) 1996 to 2030 1.2 1.2 2.7 2.3 1.7 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.8 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.1 -2.2 1.0 1.2 1.6 0.7 1.3 1.1 2.2 -0.1 m-3 ------- Table 111-1 (continued) Annual Growth (% per year) Industry (SIC Code) 1 996 to 2007 Transportation and Public Utilities (40 - 49) Railroad transportation (40) Local and interurban transit (41) Trucking and warehousing (42) Water transportation (44) Transportation by air (45) Pipelines (46) Transportation services (47) Communications (48) Utilities (49) Wholesale and Retail Trade (50 - 59) Wholesale trade (50, 51) Retail trade (52 - 59) Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (60 - 67) Banks and investment (60, 61 , 62, 67) Insurance (63, 64) Real estate (65) Services (70 - 89) Hotels and other lodging (70) Personal services (72) Business services (73) Auto repair and parking (75) Amusement (79) Health services (80) Legal services (81) Educational services (82) Social services (83) Private households (88) Other services (84, 86, 89) Government Federal, civilian Federal, military State and local Population 3.0 1.4 2.1 0.1 3.3 1.0 2.9 2.8 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.0 2.9 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.5 1.8 2.8 0.9 2.7 0.3 -0.1 1.4 0.9 Annual Growth (% per year) 1996 to 2020 2.4 1.3 1.8 0.3 2.8 0.9 2.4 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.9 2.4 1.5 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.3 0.8 2.3 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.8 Annual Growth (% per year) 1996 to 2030 2.0 1.3 1.6 0.4 2.4 0.8 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.9 2.0 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 0.8 2.0 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.8 SOURCE: Developed from BEA, 1995. m-4 ------- 2. Control Assumptions Since the base year inventory for this effort is 1996, reasonably available control technology (RACT) requirements were assumed to have already been implemented. So, for stationary sources, CAA controls include Federal initiatives as shown in Table ni-2 for point sources. Maximum achievable control technology (MACT) controls were also included as shown in Tables HI-3 and HI-4. NOX emissions for the 23 States (22 States plus the District of Columbia) covered by the NOX SIP Call were also reduced to reflect the NOX SIP Call requirements. The NOX SIP Call controls were applied to the 2007 base case inventory. For the 2020 and 2030 base case inventories, sources affected by the NOX SIP Call were capped at 2007 emission levels. The NOX SIP Call was modeled by first identifying the sources in the 1996 NET inventory which are large, and are within the source categories covered under the SIP Call. This procedure was performed by first matching the non-EGU point sources in the 1996 NET inventory file with the large sources in the NOX SIP Call data base. This was computer matching that required that the numeric identifiers in each file be identical at the State, county, plant, and point level. After this exercise was performed, there were 633 sources in the 1996 NET inventory that were identified as large sources affected by the NOX SIP Call. Because this included less than 30 percent of the 2,216 large sources in the NOX SIP Call control region, additional steps were taken to identify the remaining large, affected sources in the 1996 NET non-EGU point source file. These steps were applied separately to the four major source categories that are affected by the SIP Call, as follows: 1. For boilers, all sources in the SIP Call-affected States with a boiler design capacity in the 1996 NET file greater than or equal to 250 million British thermal units (MMBtu) were deemed to be large sources. 2. For turbines, all sources in the SIP Call-affected States with a boiler design capacity in the 1996 NET file greater than or equal to 250 MMBtu were tagged as large sources. 3. For 1C engines, all sources with 1996 NOX emissions greater than 1 ton per day were tagged as large sources. 4. For cement manufacturing, all sources with 1996 NOX emissions greater than 1 ton per day were tagged as large sources. Once the large sources were determined, the following percentages were applied according to the source category affected: Industrial Boilers 60% Gas Turbines 60% Internal Combustion Engines 90% Cement Manufacturing 30% Multiple estimates of NOX emissions were supplied in the modeling files for non-EGU point sources to account for with and without SIP Call cases, and to reflect ozone versus non-ozone season emission differences for the NOX controls expected to be operating only during the 5- m-5 ------- month ozone season. The typical SSD emission estimates incorporate the effects of NOX SIP Call controls. Annual NOX emission estimates are the sum of 5-month ozone season NOX emissions, plus 7-month (October-April) NOX emissions. Table III-5 shows the source types affected by the NOX SIP Call and describes which controls were applied to each source type. For the source categories that are affected by the NOX SIP Call, non-ozone season emissions were estimated using the same control percentages listed above if the dominant source type for that control device is expected to be one that provides year-round emission reductions. For seasonal controls, such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR) or selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) applications to industrial boilers and cement kilns, NOX controls were not applied during the 7- month non-ozone season when NOX emissions were estimated. Table ni-5 lists the primary NOX control technology assumed for each category. Table 111-2 Point Source CAA Baseline Control Assumptions Source Category Pollutant Control Efficiency (%)* National Rules Marine vessel loading: petroleum liquids VOC 80 Treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) VOC 96 Municipal solid waste landfills VOC 82 NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels. m-6 ------- Table 111-3 Point Source MACT Control Assumptions VOC Control Source Category Efficiency (%)* Benzene National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) (national) By-product coke mfg 85 By-product coke - flushing-liquor circulation tank 95 By-product coke - excess-NH3 liquor tank 98 By-product coke mfg. - tar storage 98 By-product coke mfg. - light oil sump 98 By-product coke mfg. - light oil dec/cond vents 98 By-product coke mfg. - tar bottom final cooler 81 By-product coke mfg. - naphthalene processing 100 By-product coke mfg. - equipment leaks 83 By-product coke manufacture - other 94 By-product coke manufacture - oven charging 94 Coke ovens - door and topside leaks 94 Coke oven by-product plants 94 2-Year MACT (national) Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry (SOCMI) Hazardous Organic NESHAP (HON) -SOCMI processes 79 - Volatile organic liquid storage 95 - SOCMI fugitives (equipment leak detection and repair) 60 - SOCMI wastewater 0 - Ethylene oxide manufacture 98 - Phenol manufacture 98 - Acrylonitrile manufacture 98 - Polypropylene manufacture 98 - Polyethylene manufacture 98 - Ethylene manufacture 98 Dry Cleaning - Perchloroethylene 95 - Other 70 4-Year MACT (national) TSDFs (offsite waste operations) 96 Shipbuilding and repair 24 Polymers and resins II 78 Polymers and resins IV 70 Styrene-butadiene rubber manufacture (polymers & resins group I) 70 Wood furniture surface coating 30 Aircraft surface coating (aerospace) 60 Petroleum Refineries: other sources - Fixed roof petroleum product tanks 98 - Fixed roof gasoline tanks 96 - External floating roof petroleum product tanks 90 - External floating roof gasoline tanks 95 - Petroleum refinery wastewater treatment 72 - Petroleum refinery fugitives 72 - Petroleum refineries - Slowdown w/o control 78 -Vacuum distillation 72 m-7 ------- Table 111-3 (continued) VOC Control Source Category Efficiency (%)* Halogenated Solvent Cleaners - Open top degreasing - halogenated 63 - In-line (conveyorized) degreasing - halogenated 39 Printing - Flexographic 32 - Gravure 27 Gasoline Marketing - Storage 5 -Splash loading 99 - Balanced loading 87 -Submerged loading 99 -Transit 5 - Leaks 39 7/10-Year MACT (national) Paint and varnish manufacture 35 Rubber tire manufacture 70 Green tire spray 90 Automobile surface coating 79 Beverage can surface coating 57 Paper surface coating 78 Flatwood surface coating 90 Fabric printing 80 Metal surface coating 90 Plastic parts surface coating 45 Pulp and paper production 70 Agricultural chemical production 79 Pharmaceutical production 79 Polyesters 70 Fabric coating 70 Petroleum refineries - fluid catalytic cracking 70 Oil and natural gas production 90 Explosives 70 Plywood/particle board 70 Reinforced plastics 70 Publicly-Owned Treatment Works (POTWs) 70 Phthalate plasticizers 70 Polymers and resins III 78 Rayon production 70 Polyvinyl chloride 70 Spandex production 70 Nylon 6 production 70 Alkyd resins 70 Polyester resins 70 Chelating agents 70 NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels. m-8 ------- Table 111-4 Non-VOC Related MACT Assumptions Source Category Pollutant Percentage Reduction (%)* Municipal Waste Combustors Cement Manufacturing Secondary Aluminum Medical Waste Incineration Hazardous Waste Incineration PM S02 PM PM PM NOX S02 PM 30 50 90 90 88 20 20 36 NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels. m-9 ------- Table 111-5 NOX SIP Call Control Application HH H o Source Type Description NOX Control Year-round application Industrial Boilers (non-coal) LNB and LNB plus flue gas recirculation Turbines LNB plus water injection Cement Kilns (wet) Mid-kiln firing Reciprocating 1C Engines Low emission combustion Cement Kilns (dry) Mid-kiln firing 5-month ozone season application Industrial Boilers (coal) SCR or SNCR Cement Kilns (coal) SCR or SNCR Cost Pod Number 15 16 17 41 42 43 23 24 50 34 21 22 46 33 11 12 13 14 81 Cost Pod Name ICI Boilers ICI Boilers ICI Boilers ICI Boilers ICI Boilers ICI Boilers Gas Turbines Gas Turbines Gas Turbines Cement Mfg. (wet) 1C Engines 1C Engines 1C Engines Cement Mfg. (dry) ICI Boilers ICI Boilers ICI Boilers ICI Boilers Cement Kiln Cost Pod Fuel Type Residual Oil Distillate Oil Natural Gas Process Gas Coke LPG Oil Natural Gas Jet Fuel NA Oil Gas Gas, Diesel, LPG NA Coal/Wall Coal/FBC Coal/Stoker Coal/Cyclone Coal Notes: LNB = low-NOx burners; ICI = industrial, commercial, and institutional; LPG = liquified petroleum gas; NA = not applicable; SCR = selective catalytic reduction; and SNCR = selective non-catalytic reduction. ------- C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES Three new variables were added to the structures of the mass emissions inventories. Unique 5 character IDs for plant and point, and unique 3 character IDs for stack were added to facilitate the transition from mass to emissions processor input files. Table ffi-6 documents the names of the non-EGU mass and emissions processor input files. 1. Mass Emission Inventories The structures for the mass emission inventories are detailed in Tables ni-7 and ni-8, as the base year and future year inventories differed. Data elements included in the base year inventory and excluded from the future year inventories include the pollutant emission factor (-EMF), primary control equipment code (-CPRI), and secondary control equipment code (-CSEC). 2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files The EPS 2.5 emissions processor input file structure is detailed in Table III-9. Input files for EPS 2.5 limit the width of plant and point IDs to 5 characters, so the unique 5-character IDs were used in the EPS 2.5 input files. The unique 3-character IDs for stack were also used because of limitations on the data field width for stack ID. 3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files The EMS-95 emissions processor input files include typical SSD VOC, NOX, and CO emissions for ozone modeling. The EMS-95 input file structure is detailed in Table 111-10. Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates were added to the EMS-95 input files to account for input requirements of the model. The future year emissions files contain the effects of the NOX SIP Call control requirements since only SSD emissions are provided in the EMS-95 input files. A weekly profile code of 8 was utilized for all non-EGU sources, consistent with files prepared for the NOX SIP Call analysis. This assumes operation 7 days a week, with slightly lower utilization on the weekends. m-ii ------- Table 111-6 Non-EGU Point Source Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files Year Mass EPS 2.5 EMS-95 Comments 1996 2007 PT96MS2H.DBF PT96EP1H.TXT PT96EM1H.TGZ PT7MS1H1.DBF PT07MS2H.DBF PT07EP2H.TXT PT07EM2H.TGZ Excludes NOX SIP Call Controls. Includes typical summer season day (SSD), 5-month, 7-month, and annual emissions. SSD and 5-month emissions include NOX SIP Call controls. Annual emissions are sum of 5- and 7-month emissions. 2020 PT2MS1H1.DBF PT2MS2H2.DBF PT2EP2H2.TXT PT2EM2H2.TGZ Excludes NOX SIP Call Controls. Includes typical SSD, 5-month, 7-month, and annual emissions. SSD and 5-month emissions include NOX SIP Call controls. Annual emissions are sum of 5- and 7-month emissions. H to 2030 PT3MS1H1.DBF PT3MS2H2.DBF PT3EP2H2.TXT PT3EM2H2.TGZ Excludes NOX SIP Call Controls. Includes typical SSD, 5-month, 7-month, and annual emissions. SSD and 5-month emissions include NOX SIP Call controls. Annual emissions are sum of 5- and 7-month emissions. ------- Table 111-7 Structure for 1996 Base Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions File Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY PLANTID POINTID STACKID SEGMENT ORISID BLRID PLANT sec UTMEAST UTMNORTH UTMZONE STKHGT STKDIAM STKTEMP STKFLOW STKVEL BOILCAP CAPJJNITS WINTHRU SPRTHRU SUMTHRU FALTHRU HOURS START HR DAYS WEEKS THRUPUT MAXRATE HEATCON SULFCON ASHCON NETDC SIC LATC LONG VOC EMF NOX_EMF CO_EMF SO2_EMF PM10 EMF PM25_EMF NH3_EMF VOC_CE NOX CE CO_CE S02_CE Type C C C C C C C C C C N N N N N N N N N C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Lenqth 2 3 15 15 12 2 6 6 40 10 9 9 9 4 6 4 10 9 8 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 11 12 8 5 5 9 4 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 7 7 7 7 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 2 3 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code State Plant ID Point ID Stack ID Segment ID DOE Plant ID Boiler ID Plant Name sec UTM easting (km) UTM northing (km) UTM zone Stack Height (ft) Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (degrees F) Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second) Stack Velocity (ft/sec) Boiler Design Capacity (MMBtu/hour) Capacity Unit Code Winter Thruput (%) Spring Thruput (%) Summer Thruput (%) Fall Thruput (%) Hours per Day Hourly Start Time Days per Week Weeks per Year Throughput Rate (SCC units/year) Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day) Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit) Sulfur Content (mass percent) Ash Content (mass percent) Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW) SIC Code Latitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees) VOC Emission Factor (SCC units) NOX Emission Factor (SCC units) CO Emission Factor (SCC units) SO2 Emission Factor (SCC units) PM10 Emission Factor (SCC units) PM25 Emission Factor (SCC units) NH3 Emission Factor (SCC units) VOC Control Efficiency (%) NOX Control Efficiency (%) CO Control Efficiency (%) SO2 Control Efficiency (%) m-13 ------- Table 111-7 (continued) Variable PM10_CE PM25 CE NH3_CE VOC_CPRI NOX_CPRI CO CPRI S02_CPRI PM10_CPRI PM25_CPRI NH3 CPRI VOC_CSEC NOX_CSEC CO_CSEC SO2 CSEC PM10_CSEC PM25_CSEC NH3_CSEC VOC ANN NOX_ANN CO_ANN SO2_ANN PM10 ANN PM25_ANN SOA_ANN NH3_ANN VOC OSD NOXJDSD CO_OSD SO2_OSD PM10 OSD PM25JDSD SOA_OSD NH3_OSD VOC RE NOX_RE CO_RE SO2_RE PM10 RE PM25_RE NH3_RE STACKID3 PLANTID5 POINTID5 Type N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N C C C Lenqth 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 Decimals 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Description PM10 Control Efficiency (%) PM25 Control Efficiency (%) NH3 Control Efficiency (%) VOC Primary Control Equipment Code NOX Primary Control Equipment Code CO Primary Control Equipment Code SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code CO Secondary Control Equipment Code SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code Annual VOC (tons) Annual NOX (tons) Annual CO (tons) Annual SO2 (tons) Annual PM10 (tons) Annual PM25 (tons) Annual SOA (tons) Annual NH3 (tons) Summer Season Daily VOC (tons) Summer Season Daily NOX (tons) Summer Season Daily CO (tons) Summer Season Daily SO2 (tons) Summer Season Daily PM10 (tons) Summer Season Daily PM25 (tons) Summer Season Daily SOA (tons) Summer Season Daily NH3 (tons) VOC Rule Effectiveness (%) NOX Rule Effectiveness (%) CO Rule Effectiveness (%) SO2 Rule Effectiveness (%) PM10 Rule Effectiveness (%) PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%) NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%) Stack ID (3 Digit) State Plant ID (5 Digit) Point ID (5 Diqit) m-14 ------- Table 111-8 Structure for 2007, 2020, and 2030 Future Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions Files Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY PLANTID POINTID STACKID SEGMENT PLANTID5 POINTID5 STACKID3 ORISID BLRID PLANT sec STKHGT STKDIAM STKTEMP STKFLOW STKVEL BOILCAP CAPJJNITS WINTHRU SPRTHRU SUMTHRU FALTHRU HOURS START_HR DAYS WEEKS THRUPUT MAXRATE HEATCON SULFCON ASHCON NETDC SIC LATC LONG UTMEAST UTMNORTH UTMZONE VOC_EMF NOX_EMF CO_EMF Type C C C C C C C C C C C C C N N N N N N C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 15 15 12 2 5 5 3 6 6 40 10 4 6 4 10 9 8 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 11 12 8 5 5 9 4 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 2 3 0 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code State Plant ID Point ID Stack ID Segment ID State Plant ID (5 Digit) Point ID (5 Digit) Stack ID (3 Digit) DOE Plant ID Boiler ID Plant Name sec Stack Height (ft) Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (degrees F) Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second) Stack Velocity (ft/sec) Boiler Design Capacity Capacity Unit Code Winter Thruput (%) Spring Thruput (%) Summer Thruput (%) Fall Thruput (%) Hours per Day Hourly Start Time Days per Week Weeks per Year Throughput Rate (SCC units/year) Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day) Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit) Sulfur Content (mass percent) Ash Content (mass percent) Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW) SIC Code Latitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees) UTM easting (km) UTM northing (km) UTM zone VOC Emission Factor (SCC units) NOX Emission Factor (SCC units) CO Emission Factor (SCC units) m-15 ------- Table 111-8 (continued) Variable SO2_EMF PM10_EMF PM25_EMF NH3_EMF VOC_CE NOX_CE CO_CE SO2_CE PM10_CE PM25_CE NH3_CE VOC_CPRI NOX_CPRI CO_CPRI S02_CPRI PM10_CPRI PM25_CPRI NH3_CPRI VOC_CSEC NOX_CSEC CO_CSEC S02_CSEC PM10_CSEC PM25_CSEC NH3_CSEC VOC_ANN NOX_ANN CO_ANN SO2_ANN PM10_ANN PM25_ANN SOA_ANN NH3_ANN VOC_OSD NOX_OSD CO_OSD SO2JDSD PM10_OSD PM25_OSD SOA_OSD NH3_OSD NOX_5MON NOX_7MON VOC RE Type N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 11 11 11 11 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 3 Decimals 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 Description SO2 Emission Factor (SCC units) PM10 Emission Factor (SCC units) PM25 Emission Factor (SCC units) NH3 Emission Factor (SCC units) VOC Control Efficiency (%) NOX Control Efficiency (%) CO Control Efficiency (%) SO2 Control Efficiency (%) PM10 Control Efficiency (%) PM25 Control Efficiency (%) NH3 Control Efficiency (%) VOC Primary Control Equipment Code NOX Primary Control Equipment Code CO Primary Control Equipment Code SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code CO Secondary Control Equipment Code SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code Annual VOC (tons) Annual NOX (tons) Annual CO (tons) Annual SO2 (tons) Annual PM10 (tons) Annual PM25 (tons) Annual SOA (tons) Annual NH3 (tons) Summer Season Daily VOC (tons) Summer Season Daily NOX (tons) Summer Season Daily CO (tons) Summer Season Daily SO2 (tons) Summer Season Daily PM10 (tons) Summer Season Daily PM25 (tons) Summer Season Daily SOA (tons) Summer Season Daily NH3 (tons) 5-month Summer NOX, May-September (tons) 7-month NOX, October-April (tons) VOC Rule Effectiveness (%) m-16 ------- Table 111-8 (continued) Variable Type Length Decimals Description NOX_RE CO_RE S02_RE PM10_RE PM25_RE NH3_RE POD_VOC ERAT GFAC SIPSIZE POD_NOX POD SIC2 SIZE N N N N N N C N N C C C C C 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 9 9 1 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 NOX Rule Effectiveness (%) CO Rule Effectiveness '0/- SO2 Rule Effectiveness PM,n Rule Effectiveness (% ''10 PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%) NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%) VOC Cost Pod Energy Adjustment Factor BEA Growth Factor Plant Size Based on NOX SIP Call NOX Cost Pod Cost Pod 2-digit SIC Code Plant Size Based on Capacity or Emission (see text) HI-17 ------- Table 111-9 Non-EGU EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY PLANTID POINTID SIC STAC KID SEGMENT sec STKHGT STKDIAM STKTEMP STKFLOW WINTHRU SPRTHRU SUMTHRU FALTHRU HOURS DAYS WEEKS LATC LONG VOC NOX CO SO2 PM10 PM25 SOA NH3 Type C C C C N C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 5 5 4 3 2 8 4 6 4 10 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code State Plant ID (5 digit) Point ID (5 digit) SIC Code Stack ID (3 digit) Segment ID sec Stack Height (ft) Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Temperature (F) Stack Flow Rate (cubic ft per second) Winter Thruput (%) Spring Thruput (%) Summer Thruput (%) Fall Thruput (%) Hours per Day Days per Week Weeks per Year Latitude (degrees) Longitude (degrees) Annual VOC (tons) Annual NOX (tons) Annual CO (tons) Annual SO2 (tons) Annual PM10 (tons) Annual PM25 (tons) Annual SOA (tons) Annual NH3 (tons) m-18 ------- Table 111-10 Non-EGU EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure Field Facility File: STID CYID FCID SIC UTMX UTMY UTMZ NAME Stack File: STID CYID FCID STKID DIAM HEIT TEMP VELOC FLOW UTMX UTMY ELEV Device File: STID CYID FCID STKID DVID SIC DEC JAN FEE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV WIN SPR Type N N C C N N N C N N C C N N N N N N N N N N C C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2. 3. 15. 4. 9.1 9.1 2. 40. 2. 3. 15. 12. 8.4 7.2 7.2 7.2 10.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 2. 3. 15. 12. 12. 4. 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 3. 3. Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Facility ID Standard Industrial Classification UTM easting (m) UTM northing (m) UTM zone Facility Name FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Facility ID Stack ID Inside Stack Diameter (ft) Stack Height above Ground Surface (ft) Stack Exit Temperature (F) Stack Exit Velocity (ft/sec) Stack Exit Flow Rate (actual cubic ft/min) UTM easting (m) UTM northing (m) Elevation of Stack Base from Mean Sea Level (ft) FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Facility ID Stack ID Device ID Standard Industrial Classification Fractional December Throughput Fractional January Throughput Fractional February Throughput Fractional March Throughput Fractional April Throughput Fractional May Throughput Fractional June Throughput Fractional July Throughput Fractional August Throughput Fractional September Throughput Fractional October Throughput Fractional November Throughput Winter Throughput (Dec - Feb) (%) Spring Throughput (Mar- May) (%) m-19 ------- Table 111-10 (continued) Field SUM FAL HOURS DAYS WEEKS DAYYEAR HOURYEAR Process File: STID CYID FCID STKID DVID PRID sec PRRT PRUN Emissions File: STID CYID FCID STKID DVID PRID POLID ACEF ALEF ACEE ALEE ESTT PCEC SCEC CEEF Type N N N N N N N N N C C C C C N C N N C C C C C N N N N C C C N Length 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 15. 12. 12. 12. 8. 13. 15. 2. 3. 15. 12. 12. 12. 5. 13. 13. 13. 13. 2. 5. 5. 7.4 Description Summer Throughput (Jun - Aug) (% ) Fall Throughput (Sep - Nov) (%) Hours of Operation per Day (hours/day) Days of Operation per Week (days/week) Weeks of Operation per Year (weeks/year) Days of Operation per Year (days/year) Hours of Operation per Year (hours/year) FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Facility ID Stack ID Device ID Process ID Source Classification Code Annual Process Rate (SCC units/year) Optional Process Rate Units If Different from SCC FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Facility ID Stack ID Device ID Process ID Pollutant ID Actual Emission Factor (tons/SCC units) Allowable Emission Factor (tons/SCC units) Actual Emissions (tons) Allowable Emissions (tons) Temporal Basis (AA, AD, or DS) Primary Control Equipment Secondary Control Equipment Control Equipment Efficiency (%) m-20 ------- CHAPTER IV STATIONARY AREA SOURCES A. 1996 BASE YEAR EMISSIONS The 1996 base year inventory for stationary area sources is the 1996 NET area source inventory Version 3.11 (EPA, 2000a). Version 3.11 is the most current version that reflects corrections to wildfire emission estimates for Kansas and removal of area source electric utility emissions to avoid double counting with point source EGU emissions. SOA emissions were added to the inventory by applying fractional aerosol coefficients based on speciation of VOC emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR EMISSIONS Projection year emissions are a function of projected changes (growth or decline) in activity as well as changes in control levels. The following sections describe the growth and control assumptions utilized for this analysis. 1. Growth Assumptions The BEA GSP growth, including population and combinations of industries (e.g., durable goods manufacturing, total manufacturing) were used to project emissions from 1996 to 2007, 2020, and 2030 for the area source sector. The surrogates used for each category were based on the same cross-reference list used in the Ozone/PM National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) analysis (Pechan-Avanti, 1997b). Updated non-BEA growth factors were applied to estimate future year activity for prescribed burning (projections of acres of public land burned from EPA and Federal land managers), agricultural sources (acres planted projections), and unpaved road emissions based on work completed for EPA's Section 812 Prospective Analysis (Pechan-Avanti, 1998). Livestock emissions growth was also updated for this analysis, utilizing exptrapolations of Census of Agriculture data. Pechan matched area source categories with surrogate activity indicators (e.g., GSP by industry, population, or broader BEA categories) in order to utilize the BEA data. The variable chosen as a proxy for emissions growth is shown by source category in Table IV-1. For broad industrial categories such as Industrial Fuel Combustion and Miscellaneous Industrial Processes, BEA GSP growth for the manufacturing sector represents the activity level for projecting emissions. Population was used as a surrogate growth indicator for area source categories such as Dry Cleaning, Household Solvent Use, and Residential Fuel Combustion. Projected emissions for each State/area source SCC combination were calculated by multiplying base year emissions by the growth factor for the BEA growth indicator. IV-1 ------- Table IV-1 BEA Growth Categories Assigned by Major Source Category: Area Sources Source Category BEA Growth Category* Stationary Source Fuel Combustion: Industrial Commercial/Institutional Residential Industrial Processes: Process Emissions: Synthetic Fiber Process Emissions: Pharmaceuticals SOCMI Fugitives Food & Kindred Products - Bakeries Petroleum Refining Oil & Gas Production Miscellaneous Industrial Processes Surface Coating: Architectural Auto Refinishing Traffic Markings Flat Wood Coating Wood and Metal Furniture Paper Coating Metal Can & Coating Electrical Insulation Appliances Machinery Motor Vehicles (New) Aircraft Coating Marine Paints Rail Equipment Coating Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industrial Maintenance Aerosols, Specific Purpose Degreasing (Vapor and Cold Cleaning): Furniture Metallurgical Process Fabricated Metals Industrial Machinery Electrical Equipment Transportation Equipment Instrument Manufacturing Miscellaneous Manufacturing Automobile Dealers & Repair Other Degreasing Sources Total Manufacturing Government and Government Enterprises Population Textile Mill Products (SIC 22) Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28) Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28) Food and Kindred Products (SIC 20) Petroleum and Coal Products (SIC 29) Oil and Gas Extraction (SIC 13) Total Manufacturing Construction (SIC 15, 16, and 17) Auto Repair, Services, and Garages (SIC 75) Construction (SIC 15, 16, and 17) Lumber and Wood Products (SIC 24) Furniture and Fixtures (SIC 25) Printing and Publishing (SIC 27) Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34) Machinery, except Electrical (SIC 35) Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34) Electric and Electronic Equipment (SIC 36) Motor Vehicles and Equipment (SIC 371) Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37) Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37) Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37) Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39) Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39) Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39) Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing • Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Durable Durable Durable Durable Durable Durable Durable Durable Durable Durable Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods Goods IV-2 ------- Table IV-1 (continued) Source Category BEA Growth Category* Solvent Use: Dry Cleaning (all types) Graphic Arts Rubber and Plastics Industrial Adhesives Cutback Asphalt Pesticides - Farm Personal, Household and Automotive Products Commercial Adhesives Petroleum & Petroleum Product Storage & Transport: Bulk Stations/Terminals Gasoline Service Stations (Stage I and II) Gasoline Service Stations (Underground Tank) Waste Disposal, Treatment, & Recovery: On-Site Incineration - Industrial On-Site Incineration - Commercial/Institutional On-Site Incineration - Residential Open Burning - Industrial Open Burning - Commercial/Institutional Open Burning - Residential Wastewater Treatment - Public Owned TSDFs Miscellaneous Area Sources: Agriculture Production (field burning, tilling) Agricultural Livestock Prescribed burning Wildfires Unpaved Roads Paved Roads Population Printing and Publishing (SIC 27) Rubber and Misc. Plastics Products (SIC 30) Total Manufacturing Local/lnterurban Passenger Transit (SIC 41) Population Population Population Trucking and Warehousing (SIC 42) Gasoline Consumption** Gasoline Consumption** Total Manufacturing Government and Government Enterprises Population Total Manufacturing Government and Government Enterprises Population Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services (SIC 49) Total Manufacturing USDA-Agricultural Baseline Projections Extrapolated from historical Census of Agriculture data Reflects expected increases in Federal prescribed burning activity on public lands Zero Growth Extrapolated from 1984 to 1996 trend in unpaved road mileage Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from MOBILE4.1 Fuel Consumption Model (FCM) NOTES: *BEA growth category refers to GSP projections for each industry, unless "Population" is indicated. **Gasoline consumption projections are from the MOBILE FCM. IV-3 ------- The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USD A) has developed baseline projections of farm acres planted (USDA, 1998). These data, combined with historical data back to 1990, for eight major crop types shows an expected average annual growth of only 0.38 percent per year from 1990 to 2007. The BEA GSP projections for farms result in an annual average growth of 2.0 percent per year. Projections of acres planted represent better predictors of future activity than GSP for agricultural tilling, so they were used in this analysis. Levels of acres planted were assumed to remain constant between 2010 and 2030. During an interagency (Department of the Interior/USD A) satellite conference held in April 1998, public forest land managers discussed an annual prescribed burning target of 5 million acres for 2010, although specific areas for burning were not identified. Using this target figure, public land activity levels were projected to arrive at 2010 public land activity estimates. For private forest lands, it is estimated that the level of prescribed burning activity remains constant at base year levels. Estimates for 2020 and 2030 were assumed to be the same as 2010. For 2007, data were extrapolated between 2000 and 2010. Unpaved road emission projections reflect the historical downward trend in miles of unpaved roads. The States were divided into three geographic groups: East, Central, and West. East was defined as EPA Regions 1 through 4, Central as EPA Regions 5 through 8, and West as EPA Regions 9 and 10. Linear regression was used to estimate the continued decline in unpaved road miles to 2030. For the emission projections, 2007 and 2030 unpaved road emissions were estimated by applying the average annual change between 1984 and 1996 out to the projection year. For fuel combustion sources, energy adjustment factors were also applied to the baseline inventory. These factors, developed from the DOE publication Annual Energy Outlook 1999, account for increases in fuel and process efficiency in future years (DOE, 1998). Basically, less fuel will be needed to provide the same amount of energy (generally in the form of steam) to an industrial process and the amount of energy needed per unit output will also decrease as processes become more efficient. For example, DOE projects natural gas consumption in the commercial sector to rise from 3.392 quadrillion Btu in 1996 to 3.997 quadrillion Btu in 2020. Over this same time-frame, DOE projects commercial square footage to increase from 59.5 billion square feet to 72.9 billion square feet. To reflect the projected change in natural gas consumed per square foot of commercial building space, natural gas energy intensity factors were calculated for 1996 and each projection year. For example, 0.2475 quadrillion Btu/square foot of natural gas is projected to be consumed in 2020 versus 0.2551 quadrillion Btu/square foot in 1996. For all commercial sector natural gas source categories, the BEA commercial sector growth factors are multiplied by 0.97, which represents the ratio of the 2020 energy intensity factor for commercial sector natural gas to the 1996 energy intensity factor for commercial natural gas. Similar ratios were calculated and applied for other fuels used in the commercial sector, and for all fuels used in the residential and industrial energy sectors. These adjustments are based on those used in the NET projections (EPA, 2000a). For the animal husbandry SCCs displayed in Table IV-2, alternative methods were used to project emissions growth. For the majority of these SCCs (all except SCCs 2805001000, 2805020000, and 2805025000), emissions growth was based on projections of the number of IV-4 ------- animals in each category that were developed based on national data from the 1987, 1992, and 1997 Census of Agriculture (USDA, 1997). For these SCCs, growth factors are based on the increase in the number of animals between the base year and 2007, 2020, and 2030 as estimated from linear extrapolations of the Census data. Because linear extrapolation of the Census' number of sheep and lambs yielded negative growth factors that were believed to be unrealistic, the number of these animals was projected using an exponential trend function that provided more realistic growth factors. The growth factor for total livestock production (SCC 2805000000) was computed as the median of the growth factors for the individual SCCs that comprise this total category. For the following three animal husbandry source categories, growth factors were based on more comprehensive historical and projections data available from the USD A: • Beef Cattle Feedlots (SCC 2805001000); Total Cattle/Calves (SCC 2805020000); and Hogs and Pigs (SCC 2805025000). For this effort, animal population data specific to each of these source categories were compiled for 1970-1999. The USDA publishes estimates of the total number of cattle/calves; total number of hogs and pigs; and total cattle in feedlots for historical years (USDA, 2000a). The USDA also projects the inventory of total cattle, total beef cows, and total hogs for each year over the 1998-2009 period (USDA, 2000b). It is important to note that the categories included in the USDA projections series do not match the emission source categories as closely as the categories in the USDA historical data series. For example, USDA projections are available for total beef cows, not cattle in feedlots. Because the USDA projections data represent somewhat different animal categories than the emission source categories and available historical data, the future animal counts were normalized on the same basis as the historic animal counts by computing the ratio of a source category's animal count in each future year to the animal count for 1999 as reported in the USDA's projections series. To estimate the future number of animals in each source category, these ratios are applied to the actual animal count for 1999, which is the latest year for which USDA historical data are available. After projecting these animal counts through 2009, the historical and forecast series for each source category were graphed to determine the functional form that best represented the data. Because the major fluctuations in the historical data for each category contradicted the clear trend in the USDA projection series for each category, the post-2009 trend in each category was identified based on the normalized projected animal counts for 2000-2009. The 2020 and 2030 animal counts were estimated by extrapolating to each year based on the following functional forms identified from the 2000-2009 data: • Beef Cattle Feedlots-linear (stable slow decline in number); Total Cattle/Calves-linear (stable slow increase in number); and • Hogs and Pigs-logarithmic (declining rate of increase in number). IV-5 ------- To compute the growth factors for each source category, the estimated animal counts in 2007, 2020, and 2030 were divided by the actual animal counts in 1996. Table IV-2 Animal Husbandry Categories and Growth Assumptions Source Classification Code (SCC) 2710020030 2805000000 2805001000 2805020000 2805025000 2805030000 2805040000 2805045001 SCC Description Natural Sources Biogenic Horses and Ponies Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Livestock Total Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Livestock Beef Cattle Feedlots Total Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal Husbandry Cattle and Calves Composite Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal Husbandry Hogs and Pigs Composite Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal Husbandry Poultry -Chickens Composite Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal Husbandry Sheep and Lambs Composite Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Animal Husbandry Goats Composite Growth Function Linear extrapolation Median of growth factors from individual SCCs below Linear extrapolation Linear extrapolation Logarithmic extrapolation Linear extrapolation Exponential extrapolation Linear extrapolation Reference: USDA, 1997. 2. Control Assumptions VOC area source controls were applied for federal initiatives, such as VOC content limits for consumer solvents, Title HI MACT assumptions, and Title IRACT assumptions that were not applied in the 1996 base year inventory. These controls are listed in Table IV-3. Additional controls were applied for residential wood combustion and Stage II VOC for gasoline service stations. Table IV-4 shows the control efficiencies applied for residential wood combustion by pollutant (VOC, PM10, PM25, and CO) for each of the future year inventories. Residential wood combustion control efficiencies were derived from emission factors obtained from AP-42, a 4 percent per year growth rate for catalytic wood stoves starting in 1988, and an estimate of the control efficiencies applied in the 1996 base year inventory. Table IV-5 shows the control efficiencies applied to account for VOC reductions associated with onboard vapor recovery systems and Stage n controls at gasoline service stations. Vehicle refueling VOC emissions were estimated using different methods for counties required to have Stage II VOC controls versus counties not required to have Stage II VOC controls. Serious and above ozone nonatttainment areas are required to implement Stage II (at the nozzle) vapor recovery systems under Title I of the CAA. Table IV-6 shows the 227 counties required to have IV-6 ------- Stage II controls. However, since onboard vapor recovery systems on gasoline-fueled vehicles are required in 1998 and later vehicles in all areas, independent of attainment status, higher control efficiencies are estimated for counties where Stage II refueling controls are required. Control efficiencies were calculated using weighted gram per gallon emission factors determined using a series of MOBILESa runs. These runs also accounted for the expected effect of onboard vapor recovery systems on future year evaporative emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles. Table IV-3 Area Source VOC Control Measure Assumptions Control Measure and Affected SCCs VOC Percentage Reduction VOC Rule Effectiveness Federal Control Measures (National) Consumer Solvents 25 2465000000,2465100000,2465200000, 2465600000, 2456800000 Architectural and Industrial Maintenance Coatings 25 2401001000, 2401001999, 2401100000,2401008000 Residential Wood Combustion See Table 2104008000,2104008001,2104008010, 2104008030, IV-4 2104008050,2104008051 Onboard Vapor Recovery Systems; and Stage II for Gasoline See Table Service Stations IV-5 2501060100,2501060101,2501060102 100 100 Title III MACT (National) Wood Furniture Surface Coating 2401020000 Aerospace Surface Coating 2401075000 Marine Vessel Surface Coating (Shipbuilding) 2401080000 Halogenated Solvent Cleaners (Cold Cleaning) 2415300000, 2415305000, 2415310000,2415320000, 2415325000, 2415330000,2415335000,2415340000, 2415345000, 2415355000, 2415360000,2415365000 Autobody Refinishing 2401005000 Petroleum Refinery Fugitives 2306000000 Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry (SOCMI) Fugitives (Hazardous Organic NESHAP) 2301040000 Motor Vehicle Surface Coating 2401070000 Metal Product Surface Coating 2401040000,2401045000, 2401050000 30 60 24 43** 37 60*** oy **** 36 36 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 IV-7 ------- Table IV-3 (continued) voc Percentage VOC Rule Control Measure and Affected SCCs Reduction Effectiveness Wood Product Surface Coating 36 100 2401015000 Open Top & Conveyorized Degreasing 31 100 2415100000, 2415105000, 2415110000,2415120000, 2415125000, 2415130000,2415135000,2415140000, 2415145000, 2415199000,2415200000 Publicly Owned Treatment Works (POTWs) 80 100 2630000000 to 2630020000 Metal Furniture & Appliances Surface Coating 36 100 2401025000,2401060000 Machinery, Railroad Surface Coating 36 100 2401055000,2401085000, 2401090000 Electronic Coating 36 100 2401065000 Title I RACT Petroleum Dry Cleaning 44 80 2420000370, 2420010370 Paper Surface Coating 78 80 2401030000 NOTES: * The efficiency of onboard vapor recovery systems varies depending on whether stage II vapor recovery systems are in place. It is determined based on MOBILESb emission factors. ** Overall control efficiency of 63% with 35% already applied in base year. *** Overall control efficiency of 78% with 43% already applied in base year. **** Overall control efficiency of 60% with 37% already applied in base year. ------- Table IV-4 Residential Wood Combustion Control Efficiency Assumptions by Pollutant and Future Year Inventory Pollutant 2007 Percent Reduction 2020 Percent Reduction 2030 Percent Reduction VOC 49 72 72 PM10and 33 51 51 PM25a CO 37 55 55 a All residential wood combustion PM emissions are assumed to be less than or equal to PM25. Table IV-5 Vehicle Refueling VOC Control Efficiency Assumptions Included in the Future Year Inventories Does County Have Stage II 2007 Percent 2020 Percent 2030 Percent Controls? Reduction Reduction Reduction No 52.0 82.4 85.8 Yes 81.7 87.6 88.3 IV-9 ------- Table IV-6 Counties with Stage II Controls State Arizona California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California California Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Delaware Delaware Delaware Dist. Columbia Florida Florida Florida Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia County Maricopa Alameda Contra Costa El Dorado Fresno Kern Kings Los Angeles Madera Marin Merced Monterey Napa Orange Placer Riverside Sacramento San Benito San Bernardino San Diego San Joaquin San Mateo Santa Barbara Santa Clara Santa Cruz Solano Sonoma Stanislaus Sutler Tulare Ventura Yolo Fairfield Hartford Litchfield Middlesex New Haven New London Tolland Windham Kent New Castle Sussex Washington B reward Dade Palm Beach Cherokee Clayton Cobb Coweta De Kalb Douglas Fayette Forsyth Fulton Gwinnett Henry Paulding State FIPS Code 04 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 County FIPS Code 013 001 013 017 019 029 031 037 039 041 047 053 055 059 061 065 067 069 071 073 077 081 083 085 087 095 097 099 101 107 111 113 001 003 005 007 009 011 013 015 001 003 005 001 011 025 099 057 063 067 077 089 097 113 117 121 135 151 223 IV-10 ------- Table IV-6 (continued) State Georgia Illinois Illinois Illinois Illinois Illinois Illinois Illinois Illinois Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Kentucky Louisiana Louisiana Louisiana Louisiana Louisiana Louisiana Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Missouri Missouri Missouri Missouri Missouri Nevada County Rockdale Cook Du Page Grundy Kane Kendall Lake McHenry Will Clark Floyd Lake Porter Jefferson Ascension Parish East Baton Rouge Parish Iberville Parish Livingston Parish Pointe Coupee Parish West Baton Rouge Parish Anne Arundel Baltimore Calvert Carroll Cecil Charles Frederick Harford Howard Montgomery Prince Georges Baltim Barnstable Berkshire Bristol Dukes Essex Franklin Hampden Hampshire Middlesex Nantucket Norfolk Plymouth Suffolk Worcester Kent Livingston Macomb Monroe Oakland Ottawa St. Clair Washtenaw Wayne Franklin Jefferson St. Charles St. Louis St. Lo Clark State FIPS Code 13 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 29 29 29 29 29 32 County FIPS Code 247 031 043 063 089 093 097 111 197 019 043 089 127 111 005 033 047 063 077 121 003 005 009 013 015 017 021 025 027 031 033 510 001 003 005 007 009 011 013 015 017 019 021 023 025 027 081 093 099 115 125 139 147 161 163 071 099 183 189 510 003 IV-11 ------- Table IV-6 (continued) State County Nevada Washoe New Hampshire Hillsborough New Hampshire Merrimack New Hampshire Rockingham New Hampshire Strafford New Jersey Atlantic New Jersey Bergen New Jersey Burlington New Jersey Camden New Jersey Cape May New Jersey Cumberland New Jersey Essex New Jersey Gloucester New Jersey Hudson New Jersey Hunterdon New Jersey Mercer New Jersey Middlesex New Jersey Monmouth New Jersey Morris New Jersey Ocean New Jersey Passaic New Jersey Salem New Jersey Somerset New Jersey Sussex New Jersey Union New Jersey Warren New York Bronx New York Kings New York Nassau New York New York New York Orange New York Queens New York Richmond New York Rockland New York Suffolk New York Westchester Ohio Ashtabula Ohio Clark Ohio Cuyahoga Ohio Geauga Ohio Greene Ohio Lake Ohio Lorain Ohio Lucas Ohio Medina Ohio Miami Ohio Montgomery Ohio Portage Ohio Summit Ohio Wood Pennsylvania Bucks Pennsylvania Chester Pennsylvania Delaware Pennsylvania Montgomery Pennsylvania Philadelphia Rhode Island Bristol Rhode Island Kent Rhode Island Newport Rhode Island Providence Rhode Island Washington Tennessee Davidson State FIPS Code 32 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 42 42 42 42 42 44 44 44 44 44 47 County FIPS Code 031 011 013 015 017 001 003 005 007 009 011 013 015 017 019 021 023 025 027 029 031 033 035 037 039 041 005 047 059 061 071 081 085 087 103 119 007 023 035 055 057 085 093 095 103 109 113 133 153 173 017 029 045 091 101 001 003 005 007 009 037 IV-12 ------- Table IV-6 (continued) State Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin County Rutherford Sumner Williamson Wilson Brazoria Chambers Collin Dallas Denton El Paso Fort Bend Galveston Hardin Harris Jefferson Liberty Montgomery Orange Tarrant Waller Arlington Charles City Chesterfield Fairfax Hanover Henrico Loudoun Prince William Stafford Alexandria Colonial Heights Fairfax Falls Church Hopewell Manassas Manassas Park Richmond Kenosha Kewaunee Manitowoc Milwaukee Ozaukee Racine Sheboygan Washington Waukesha State FIPS Code 47 47 47 47 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 County FIPS Code 149 165 187 189 039 071 085 113 121 141 157 167 199 201 245 291 339 361 439 473 013 036 041 059 085 087 107 153 179 510 570 600 610 670 683 685 760 059 061 071 079 089 101 117 131 133 IV-13 ------- C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES Table IV-7 shows the mass and emissions processor input files prepared for area sources. Note that nonroad emissions (discussed in Chapter V) are also included in these inventory files. The control scenario only affects nonroad sources, as discussed in Chapter V. 1. Mass Emission Inventories The structure for the area source mass emission inventory files is shown in Table IV-8. The emissions processor input files were derived from the mass emission inventories. The only change to emissions is the application of the crustal PM factor. This factor accounts for the fact that only a portion of the crustal PM emissions are transportable. For the EPS 2.5 emissions processor input files, a factor of 25 percent was applied to PM10 and PM25 emissions for the SCCs listed in Table IV-9 to simulate the transportable component of these emissions. In addition, PM10 and PM25 emissions from wind erosion of natural geogenic sources (SCCs 2730100000 [total] and 2730100001 [dust devils]) were excluded from the modeling files. 2. EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files The EPS 2.5 emissions processor input file structure is detailed in Table IV-10. Annual emissions estimates are provided in the EPS 2.5 emissions processor input files. 3. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files The EMS-95 emissions processor input files include typical SSD VOC, NOX, and CO emissions for ozone modeling. The structure for the area source EMS-95 input files is given in Table IV-11. Two EMS-95 inventory files were prepared for the 1996 base year inventory, and the 2007, 2020, and 2030 base and control case inventories. One file provides area source and nonroad emissions at the 10-digit SCC level. The other file provides nonroad emissions at the 7-digit SCC level and area source emissions at the 10-digit SCC level. IV-14 ------- Table IV-7 Area/Nonroad Mass and Emissions Processor Input Files Year 1996 Scenario Base Mass AR96MS1H.DBF File Name EPS 2.5 EMS-95 Comments AR96MX1H.DBF Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic sources. NR96MS1H.DBF AN96EP1H.TXT AN96EM1H.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and nonroad emissions. N96MS1H7.DBF AN96EM17.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for nonroad sources. 2007 Base AR07MS2H.DBF AR07MX2H.DBF Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic sources. N7MS1HB.DBF AN7EP2HB.TXT AN7EM1HB.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and nonroad emissions. N7MS1HB7.DBF AN7EM1 B7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for nonroad sources. Control N7MS1 HC.DBF AN7EP2HC.TXT AN7EM1 HC.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and nonroad emissions. N7MS1HC7.DBF AN7EM1 C7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for nonroad sources. 2020 Base AR20MS2H.DBF AR20MX2H.DBF Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic sources. N2MS1HB.DBF AN2EP2HB.TXT AN2EM1HB.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and nonroad emissions. N2MS1HB7.DBF AN2EM1 B7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCO detail for nonroad sources. Control N2MS1 HC.DBF AN2EP2HC.TXT AN2EM1 HC.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and nonroad emissions. N2MS1HC7.DBF AN2EM1 C7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCC detail for nonroad sources. 2030 Base AR30MS3H.DBF AR30MX3H.DBF Includes 25% transportable PM factor and no wind erosion emissions for natural geogenic sources. N3MS1HB.DBF AN3EP3HB.TXT AN3EM1HB.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and nonroad emissions. N3MS1HB7.DBF AN3EM1 B7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCC detail for nonroad sources. Control N3MS1 HC.DBF AN3EP3HC.TXT AN3EM1 HC.TGZ For EPS 2.5, includes area source MX and nonroad emissions. N3MS1HC7.DBF AN3EM1 C7.TGZ For EMS-95, use 7-digit SCC detail for nonroad sources. IV-15 ------- Table IV-8 Area/Nonroad Mass Emissions Inventory File Structure Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY sec VOC_ANN NOX_ANN CO_ANN SO2_ANN PM10_ANN PM25_ANN NH3_ANN SOA_ANN VOC_OSD NOX_OSD CO_OSD SO2_OSD PM10_OSD PM25JDSD NH3_OSD SOA_OSD VOC_EMF NOX_EMF CO_EMF SO2_EMF PM10_EMF PM25_EMF NH3_EMF VOC_CE NOX_CE CO_CE S02_CE PM10_CE PM25_CE NH3_CE VOC RE Type C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 Decimals 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 Description FIPS State code FIPS county code sec Annual VOC [tons per year (tpy)] Annual NOX (tpy) Annual CO (tpy) Annual SO2 (tpy) Annual PM10 (tpy) Annual PM25 (tpy) Annual NH3 (tpy) Annual SOA (tpy) OSD VOC (tpd) OSD NOX (tpd) OSD CO (tpd) OSD SO2 (tpd) OSD PM10 (tpd) OSD PM25 (tpd) OSD NH3 (tpd) OSD SOA (tpd) VOC Emission Factor NOX Emission Factor CO Emission Factor SO2 Emission Factor PM10 Emission Factor PM25 Emission Factor NH3 Emission Factor VOC Control Efficiency NOX Control Efficiency CO Control Efficiency SO2 Control Efficiency PM10 Control Efficiency PM25 Control Efficiency NH3 Control Efficiency VOC Rule Effectiveness IV-16 ------- Table IV-8 (continued) Variable Type Length Decimals Description NOX_RE CO_RE SO2_RE PM10_RE PM25_RE NH3_RE VOC_RP NOX_RP CO_RP SO2_RP PM10_RP PM25_RP NH3 RP N N N N N N N N N N N N N 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 NOX Rule Effectiveness 0 CO Rule Effectiveness 0 SO2 Rule Effectiveness 0 PM10 Rule Effectiveness 0 PM25 Rule Effectiveness 0 NH3 Rule Effectiveness 2 VOC Rule Penetration 2 NOX Rule Penetration 2 CO Rule Penetration 2 SO2 Rule Penetration 2 PM10 Rule Penetration 2 PM25 Rule Penetration 2 NH3 Rule Penetration IV-17 ------- Table IV-9 Source Categories to which Crustal Factor was Applied to PM10 and PM25 Emissions in EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input Files Sector/SCC Source Category Description Mobile Sources/Aircraft 227508xxxx Unpaved Airstrips Mobile Sources/Paved Roads 2294xxxxxx Paved Roads Mobile Sources/Unpaved Roads 2296xxxxxx Unpaved Roads Industrial Processes/Construction (SIC codes 15-17) 23110001xx All Processes: Wind Erosion 23110101xx General Building Construction: Wind Erosion 23110201xx Heavy Construction: Wind Erosion 23110301xx Road Construction: Wind Erosion 23110401xx Special Trade Construction: Wind Erosion Miscellaneous Area Sources/Agriculture Production - Crops 28010xxxxx Agriculture - Crops 28017xxxxx Fertilizer Application Miscellaneous Area Sources/Agriculture Production - Livestock 2805xxxxxx Agriculture Production - Livestock IV-18 ------- Table IV-10 Area/Nonroad EPS 2.5 Emissions Processor Input File Structure Variable Type Length Decimals Description FIPSST FIPSCNTY SCC VOC NOX CO S02 PM10 PM25 SOA NH3 C C C N N N N N N N N 2 3 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 FIPS State Code 0 FIPS county Code 0 AMS Source Category Code 4 Annual VOC Emissions (tpy) 4 Annual NOX Emissions (tpy) 4 Annual CO Emissions (tpy) 4 Annual SO2 Emissions (tpy) 4 Annual PM10 Emissions (tpy) 4 Annual PM25 Emissions (tpy) 4 Annual SOA Emissions (tpy) 4 Annual NH3 Emissions (tpy) IV-19 ------- Table IV-11 Area/Nonroad EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input File Structure Variable Area File: STID CYID ASCT POLID ACEF ALEF ACEE ALEE PCEC SCEC CEEF ESTT Temporal File: STID CYID ASCT PRRT ACUN DEC JAN FEE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV WIN SPR SUM FAL HOURS DAYS WEEKS DAYYEAR HOURYEAR Type N N C C N N N N C C N C N N C N C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 15 5 13 13 13 13 5 5 7 2 2 3 15 13 15 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Area Source Category Pollutant ID Actual Emission Factor (tons/process unit) Allowable Emission Factor (tons/process unit) Actual Emissions (tons) Allowable Emissions (tons) Primary Control Equipment Secondary Control Equipment Control Equipment Efficiency (%) Temporal Basis (AA or AD) FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Area Source Category Annual Process Rate (process units/year) Activity Units Fractional December Throughput Fractional January Throughput Fractional February Throughput Fractional March Throughput Fractional April Throughput Fractional May Throughput Fractional June Throughput Fractional July Throughput Fractional August Throughput Fractional September Throughput Fractional October Throughput Fractional November Throughput Winter Throughput (Dec - Feb) (%) Spring Throughput (Mar- May) (%) Summer Throughput (Jun - Aug) (%) Fall Throughput (Sep - Nov) (%) Code Value for Hourly Operation Code Value for Daily Operation Weeks of Operation per Year (weeks/year) Days of Operation per Year (days/year) Hours of Operation per Year (hours/year) IV-20 ------- CHAPTER V NONROAD SOURCES A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY County-level emission estimates for 1996 for the majority of nonroad sources were developed using EPA's draft NONROAD model. Emission estimates for VOC, NOX, CO, SO2, PM10, and PM2 5 are reported by the model. The NONROAD model does not estimate NH3 and SO A emissions; therefore, these emissions were calculated outside the model. Aircraft, commercial marine, and locomotives are not presently included in the NONROAD model, and the procedures to develop emission estimates for these categories are discussed separately. 1. NONROAD Model Equipment Categories The NONROAD model estimates pollutant emissions for the following general equipment categories: (1) agricultural; (2) airport service; (3) light commercial; (4) construction and mining; (5) industrial; (6) lawn and garden; (7) logging; (8) pleasure craft; (9) railway maintenance; and (10) recreational equipment. These applications are further classified according to fuel and engine type [diesel, gasoline 2-stroke, gasoline 4-stroke, compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquified petroleum gas (LPG)]. The base year nonroad mass emissions inventory for the HDD rulemaking was developed from two emission inventories including: 1) an existing 1996 county-level inventory, based on EPA's April 1999 draft NONROAD model; and 2) an updated national inventory, based on EPA's June 2000 draft version of the NONROAD model. To develop the original 1996 county-level inventory, NONROAD model input files were prepared for each State to account for the average statewide temperatures and Reid vapor pressure (RVP) for four seasons, including summer, fall, winter, and spring. Input files were also generated to account for county-level differences in RVP, fuel characteristics due to reformulated gasoline (RFG) and oxygenated fuel programs, and Stage U controls. Emissions calculated for counties with fuel characteristic and control data that varied from statewide average values replaced emissions for these same counties generated by running the default input files. Typical SSD emissions were estimated by dividing total summer season emissions by 92 days. This 1996 county-level emissions inventory was then updated to reflect revisions made to the NONROAD model since the April 1999 version. Using the June 2000 draft NONROAD model, national, seasonal emissions were generated at the SCC level for the following pollutants: VOC, NOX, SO2, CO, PM10, and PM2 5. The results for three seasonal runs (i.e., summer, winter, fall/spring combined) were summed to calculate annual emissions. Additional NONROAD model runs were performed to estimate typical summer weekday emissions as well. To account V-l ------- for lower diesel fuel sulfur levels in California, separate runs were performed for this State for diesel-fueled equipment SCCs. Tables V-la and V-lb present a summary of the input values used for the national NONROAD model runs. TableV-1a Temperature and RVP Inputs for National NONROAD Model Runs1 Season Summer Fall/Spring Winter Typical Summer Weekday Input2 RVP (psi) Min Temp (°F) Max Temp (°F) Average Temp (°F) RVP (psi) Min Temp (°F) Max Temp (°F) Average Temp (°F) RVP (psi) Min Temp (°F) Max Temp (°F) Average Temp (°F) RVP (psi) Min Temp (°F) Max Temp (°F) Average Temp (°F) Value 8.1 62 82 72 9.7 43 63 53 13.1 24 44 34 8.1 62 82 72 1 The input values presented were the same for both base and control cases and for all years. The control case input values were the same for all three projection years (no control case was developed for 1996). 2 Values for minimum, maximum, and average temperature are expressed in degrees Fahrenheit (°F). Table V-1b Diesel Fuel Sulfur Input Values for National NONROAD Model Runs1 Fuel Sulfur, ppm Year 1996 2007 2020 2030 Base case2 2527 2654 2733 2770 Control case3 Not applicable 2579 2667 2708 1 Diesel fuel sulfur does not change seasonally. NONROAD runs were done using fuel sulfur inputs of 2859 ppm and 2808 ppm, for the base and control case, respectively. SO2 output values, but not PM, were then adjusted to represent the values as listed for each year. 2 For California base case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 120 ppm was used for all seasons. 3 For California control case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 103 ppm was used for all seasons. V-2 ------- SCC-specific ratios were calculated by dividing the updated national, annual emission estimates by the previous 1996 national values (i.e., based on the April 1999 version of NONROAD). County-level emissions were then calculated by multiplying each record in the existing 1996 inventory by the appropriate ratio for each SCC. In this manner, the county-level distribution of the existing 1996 inventory is normalized to the updated national, SCC-level totals for 1996. California diesel equipment emissions were also updated. Based on the results of the separate California NONROAD model runs, state-level, SCC emission ratios were calculated by dividing the updated California diesel emission estimates by the previous 1996 California values. These ratios were applied to existing county-level records for California, and the resulting emissions were incorporated into the 1996 mass emissions inventory. Similar to annual emission ratios, SSD ratios were first developed by dividing updated SSD emissions by previous SSD emissions. However, when SSD ratios were applied to certain records, new SSD emission values were calculated that were larger than the corresponding annual emissions. This was occurring because SSD values had been calculated differently in the April 1999 data base (i.e., they had previously been calculated by dividing summer season emissions by 92, as opposed to performing separate runs for a typical summer day). To adjust this result, and to ensure that the total national SSD emissions were equivalent to what EPA's Office of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ) had originally provided, county-level SSD emissions were calculated by multiplying national SSD emissions by the ratio of county level annual emissions to national level annual emissions. This is shown in the formula below: SSDcounty = SSDnational * (Annua>'county * Annua>'national Additional adjustments to the 1996 NONROAD emissions inventory included: 1) applied additional factors to SO2 emissions to account for the true fuel sulfur level as a result of low sulfur diesel fuel spillover (i.e., as shown in Table V-lb); and 2) revised county-level emissions for air conditioning (AC)/refrigeration and railway maintenance in Suffolk County, MA to correct an error in the original equipment populations used to estimate emissions. Finally, new SCCs have been added to the most recent version of NONROAD. Since the April 1999 county-level data base did not include these SCCs, surrogate SCCs were assigned to the new SCCs to use in allocating national emissions to the county-level. The additional SCCs and each corresponding surrogate SCC are shown in Table V-2. 2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and Locomotives Base year aircraft and locomotive emissions were taken from the existing 1996 NET inventory (EPA, 2000a). Hydrocarbon (HC), NOX, CO, and total PM national emission estimates for commercial marine diesel engines were provided by OTAQ. VOC was calculated by multiplying HC emissions by a factor of 1.053. PM10 was assumed to be equivalent to PM, and PM2 5 was estimated by multiplying PM10 emissions by a factor of 0.92. The new national estimates V-3 ------- Table V-2 Surrogate SCC Assignments for New SCCs in June 2000 NONROAD Model Additional SCCs 2260002054 2260005050 2265001020 2265007015 2267005055 2268002081 2268003020 2268003040 2268003070 2268005050 2268005055 2268006015 Description Gasoline, 2-Stroke Construction Equipment Crushing/Processing Equipment Gasoline, 2-Stroke Farm Equipment Hydro Power Units Gasoline, 4-Stroke Recreational Vehicles Snowmobiles Gasoline, 4-Stroke Logging Equipment Skidders LPG Farm Equipment Other Agricultural Equipment CNG Construction Equipment Other Construction Equipment CNG Industrial Equipment Forklifts CNG Industrial Equipment Other General Industrial Equipment CNG Industrial Equipment Terminal Tractors CNG Farm Equipment Hydro Power Units CNG Farm Equipment Other Agricultural Equipment CNG Light Commercial Air Compressors Surrogate SCC 2265002054 2265005050 2260001020 2270007015 2265005055 2265002081 2265003020 2265003040 2265003070 2265005050 2265005055 2265006015 Description Gasoline, 4-Stroke Construction Equipment Crushing/Processing Equipment Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm Equipment Hydro Power Units Gasoline, 2-Stroke Recreational Vehicles Snowmobiles Diesel Logging Equipment Skidders Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm Equipment Other Agricultural Equipment Gasoline, 4-Stroke Construction Equipment Other Construction Equipment Gasoline, 4-Stroke Industrial Equipment Forklifts Gasoline, 4-Stroke Industrial Equipment Other General Industrial Equipment Gasoline, 4-Stroke Industrial Equipment Terminal Tractors Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm Equipment Hydro Power Units Gasoline, 4-Stroke Farm Equipment Other Agricultural Equipment Gasoline, 4-Stroke Light Commercial Air Compressors were distributed to counties using the geographic distribution in the existing 1996 NET data base. 3. Methodologies for NH3 and SOA Ammonia emissions were adjusted based on updated national, SCC-level fuel consumption estimates for diesel and gasoline engines, as reported by the June 2000 draft version of NONROAD. Fuel consumption estimates were not available for LPG- and CNG-fueled equipment. As with the criteria pollutant emission estimates, SCC-specific ratios were developed by dividing updated fuel consumption values by previous fuel consumption values. NH3 emissions for California were also recalculated using updated diesel fuel consumption values generated for California-specific runs. Once a county-level data base of fuel consumption was developed, emission factors provided by OTAQ were then applied to these activity data to V-4 ------- estimate NH3 emissions. The emission factors were derived primarily from light-duty on-road vehicle emission measurements, and extrapolated to nonroad engines on a fuel consumption basis. NH3 emissions for diesel engines were calculated by multiplying diesel fuel consumption by an emission factor of 165.86 milligrams/gallon. NH3 emissions from gasoline engines (without catalysts) were calculated by multiplying gasoline consumption by an emission factor of 153.47 milligrams/gallon. For aircraft, commercial marine, and locomotive categories, national fuel consumption estimates for 1996 were obtained from various sources. Jet fuel and aviation gasoline consumption for general aviation and commercial aircraft were obtained from the "FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years, 1998-2009," (FAA, 1998a). For the aircraft categories, NH3 emission factors developed for diesel engines were applied to all fuel consumption estimates, since aviation gasoline consumption was determined to be relatively small compared to jet fuel, and the aircraft SCCs are not broken down by fuel type. Diesel consumption estimates for locomotives were obtained from "Locomotive Emission Standards - Regulatory Support Document (RSD)," (EPA, 1997). For commercial marine, data for distillate and residual fuel oil were reported in "Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales," (EIA, 1996). Secondary organic aerosol emissions were calculated by applying the appropriate fractional aerosol coefficient to annual and SSD VOC emissions (Grosjean and Seinfeld, 1989). Default assignments were made to new nonroad SCCs that had not been previously assigned SOA fractions. B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES The methods for developing base case and control scenario projection year inventories for nonroad sources are described in this section. Table V-3 provides a summary of the projection methods, as well as growth indicators, used for each nonroad equipment category. 1. Nonroad Model Equipment Categories For NONROAD model categories, emission estimates for projection years were developed using a method comparable to that for the base year. First, three seasonal (i.e., summer, winter, and fall/spring combined) NONROAD model runs were performed at the national level. Seasonal runs accounted for differences in average seasonal temperature, as well as RVP. Second, year-specific ratios were calculated by dividing national SCC-level emission estimates for 2007, 2020, and 2030 by the 1996 national values. County-level estimates were then calculated for 2007, 2020, and 2030 by multiplying each ratio times the 1996 county-level emissions inventory. In this manner, the county-level distribution assumed for the 1996 inventory is normalized to the updated national, SCC-level totals for each projection year. As with the base year, separate NONROAD model runs were done for California diesel-fueled SCCs. Additional runs were also performed to estimate typical summer weekday emissions for each projection year. V-5 ------- Table V-3 Growth Indicators/Projection Methods for Nonroad Sources Nonroad SCC 2260xxxxxx 2265xxxxxx 2267xxxxxx 2268xxxxxx 2270xxxxxx 2282xxxxxx 2285xxx015 SCC Description 2-stroke gasoline 4-stroke gasoline CNG LPG Diesel Recreational marine Railway maintenance Growth Indicator Not applicable1 2275050000, 2275060000 General Aviation and Air Taxis 2275020000, 2275070000 Commercial Aircraft and Auxiliary Power Units Landing-Takeoff Operations (LTOs) for total aircraft operations 2275001xxx Military Aircraft 992 - Federal, Military 2275085xxx Unpaved Airstrips SIC 45 - Air Transportation 2275900xxx Aircraft Refueling SIC 45 - Air Transportation 2280002xxx Commercial Marine - Diesel Vessels SIC 44 - Water Transportation2 2280001 xxx, 2280003xxx, Commercial Marine - Coal, Residual SIC 44 - Water Transportation 2280004xxx Oil, and Gas-fired Vessels 2283xxxxxx Military Marine Vessels 992 - Federal, Military 2285xxxxxx Locomotives No growth3 1 Projection year emission estimates were derived from national NONROAD model runs allocated to counties based on the geographic distribution of a 1996 county-level inventory, developed from the April 1999 draft version of NONROAD. 2 SO2 and NH3 emissions were projected using growth factors; projection year estimates for all other pollutants provided by OTAQ. 3 SO2 and NH3 emissions for projection years assumed to remain constant at 1996 uncontrolled levels; controlled projection year estimates for all other pollutants provided by OTAQ. In addition to a base case scenario, control case emission inventories were developed for each projection year to account for the effects of proposed HDDV reductions in diesel sulfur content. Table V-lb presents the diesel fuel sulfur values assumed for the base case and control case scenario. Separate runs were performed for California to account for the lower diesel fuel sulfur content in this State (i.e., 120 ppm for the base case, and 103 ppm for the control scenario). Similar adjustments were made to projection year NONROAD model inventories as were made for the 1996 base year nonroad inventory. These adjustments included: (1) calculating county SSD emissions by multiplying national SSD emissions by the ratio of county to national annual emissions, for each SCC; (2) applying additional factors to SO2 emissions to account for the true fuel sulfur level as a result of low sulfur diesel fuel spillover (i.e., as shown in Table V-lb); and (3) revising emissions for AC/refrigeration and railway maintenance in Suffolk County, MA to correct an error in the original equipment populations. V-6 ------- a. Growth Assumptions Nonroad category emissions have typically been projected using economic indicators that are believed to correlate to nonroad equipment activity. For example, nonroad agricultural equipment emissions have been grown in the past using BEA GSP projections for SIC code 01, which corresponds to the farm industry. However, instead of using economic indicators to project emissions or nonroad activity, the current version of the NONROAD model predicts future year nonroad equipment populations by extrapolating from a linear regression of historical equipment populations. Because total activity is never directly measured, the historical trend in population must be used as a surrogate. A time-series analysis using historic equipment populations is believed to better reflect market trends within each sector (e.g., a shift from gasoline-fueled equipment to diesel-fueled equipment). Accurately estimating the relative distribution of different engine types in the future is important since diesel and gasoline engines have distinct emission characteristics. This approach, however, is not planned to be used for all equipment types in the final version of the NONROAD model. Some exceptions include oil field equipment and aircraft ground support equipment, which will rely on BEA GSP data and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) LTO data, respectively. b. Control Assumptions The NONROAD model accounts for the effect of Federal nonroad engine emission standards which are final, or proposed standards soon expected to be final. The emission levels associated with compression-ignition (CI) and spark-ignition (SI) engine standards are incorporated into emission factors, which are then applied to future year nonroad equipment populations. The control programs accounted for by the NONROAD model include: (1) Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 CI standards for diesel engines greater than 50 horsepower (hp); (2) Tier 1 and Tier 2 CI standards for diesel engines below 50 hp; (3) Phase I and Phase 2 of the SI standards for gasoline engines less than 25 hp; (4) recreational SI marine engine controls. td engiges subject to the Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 standards are presented in Table V-4. Base year andJSontrolled steady-state emission factors for SI engines below 25 hp (19 kilowatts) are presorted in Table V-5. Additional details on the control levels reflected in NONROAD for futufi£ years for these categories, as well as SI recreational marine engines, are presented in tech^cal reports that serve as supporting documentation for NONROAD model inputs (EPA, 199£§and EPA, 1999a). Compression-ignition engine emission factor values listed in Table V-4 reflect revisions made to the NONROAD model since the April 1999 draft version, which are The impact of RFG in the appropriate counties is reflected in the 1996 base year county-level inventory, in that the fuel RVP and percent oxygen were adjusted, as described in section V.A. 1, for counties subject to RFG and oxygenated fuels requirements. No further adjustments were made to account for the use of RFG in future years. V-7 ------- Table V-4 Steady-State Emission Factors for Cl Engines in the NONROAD Model Engine Power (hp) >0 to 1 1 >11 to 25 >25 to 50 >50to 100 >1 00 to 175 >1 75 to 300 >300 to 600 >600 to 750 >750 Model Year 88-99 00-04 05- 88-99 00-04 05- 88-98 99-03 04- 88-97 98-03 04-07 08- 88-96 97-02 03-06 07- 88-95 96-02 03-05 06- 88-95 96-00 01-05 06- 88-95 96-01 02-05 06- 88-99 00-05 06- Regulation - Tierl Tier 2 - Tierl Tier 2 - Tierl Tier 2 - Tierl Tier 2 TierS - Tierl Tier 2 TierS - Tierl Tier 2 TierS - Tierl Tier 2 TierS - Tierl Tier 2 TierS - Tierl Tier 2 Emission Factors (g/hp-hr) HC 1.5 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.2 0.2 1.8 0.13 0.13 1.0 0.56 0.36 0.18 0.7 0.4 0.36 0.18 0.7 0.35 0.35 0.18 0.7 0.22 0.22 0.18 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.18 0.7 0.2 0.2 CO 5.0 4.1 4.1 5.0 1.3 1.3 5.0 1.8 1.8 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.7 1.1 1.1 NOX 10.0 5.6 4.3 8.5 4.0 4.3 6.9 4.8 4.3 6.9 5.3 4.7 3.0 8.4 5.9 4.1 2.5 8.4 5.8 4.0 2.5 8.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 8.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 8.4 5.8 4.1 PM1 1.0 0.52 0.44 0.9 0.36 0.36 0.8 0.38 0.32 0.72 0.37 0.24 0.24 0.4 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.4 0.19 0.12 0.12 0.4 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.4 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.4 0.13 0.12 1 PM10 is assumed to be equivalent to PM. V-8 ------- Table V-5 Emission Factors for SI Engines Below 25 hp Engine Tech Type HC CO NOV PM1 BSFC Class III Engine Emissions for New Engines (g/kW-hr) Gas 2-stroke handheld Class III, baseline Phase 1 Phase 1 with catalyst Phase 2 Phase 2 with catalysts 350 295 295 44 36 964 644 644 380 190 1.30 1.05 1.05 1.22 2.00 10.33 10.33 10.33 10.33 10.33 830 720 720 500 500 Class IV Handheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr) Gas 2-stroke handheld Class IV, baseline Phase 1 Phase 1 with catalyst Phase 1 4-stroke Phase 2 Phase 2 with catalysts Phase 2 4-stroke 350 241 241 30 44 36 35 964 546 546 715 380 190 580 1.26 0.688 0.688 2.40 1.22 2.00 1.51 10.33 10.33 10.33 0.08 10.33 10.33 0.08 830 720 720 515 500 500 515 Class V Handheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr) Gas 2-stroke handheld Class V, baseline Phase 1 Phase 1 with catalyst Phase 2 Phase 2 with catalysts 214 161 161 64 54 696 471 471 380 190 1.30 2.436 2.436 1.22 2.00 10.33 10.33 10.33 10.33 10.33 560 529 529 370 370 Class I Nonhandheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr) Gas 2-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline Gas, side-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline Gas, overhead-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline 2-stroke, Phase 1 Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke Phase 1 overhead valved 4-stroke Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke with catalyst Phase 2 side-valved Phase 2 overhead valved 279 52 18 161 11.27 11.27 11.27 10.63 8.22 651 578 548 603 474 471 474 474 471 0.39 2.68 2.41 5.36 4.83 4.34 4.83 3.17 2.46 10.33 0.080 0.080 10.33 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 529 830 603 529 560 475 560 560 475 Class II Nonhandheld New Engine Emissions (g/kW-hr) Gas 2-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline Gas, side-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline Gas, overhead-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke Phase 1 overhead valved 4-stroke Phase 2 side-valved Phase 2 overhead valved 279 12.96 6.97 7.37 6.97 7.37 5.58 651 578 548 519 473 519 473 0.39 2.76 4.69 6.03 4.69 6.03 3.72 10.33 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 529 570 570 528 450 528 450 1 PM10 is assumed to be equivalent to PM. V-9 ------- 2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and Locomotives Aircraft emissions for 2007 were based on the existing NET projections, which used FAA LTO data as the growth surrogate for commercial and civil aircraft. Military aircraft were projected from 1996 using BEA GSP growth factors. Aircraft estimates for the years 2020 and 2030 were also based on existing NET emission estimates, which were developed from commercial and general aviation growth rates from the FAA. Forecasts were only available up to the year 2020 in "Long Range Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2010, 2015, and 2020," (FAA, 1998b). The annual average growth rate for the period 2015 to 2020 was assumed for estimating growth out to the year 2030. Military aviation activity was assumed to remain constant starting in 2010, so 2010 emissions from the NET were used for 2020 and 2030 estimates for this category. The EPA has promulgated NOX and CO emission standards for commercial aircraft, but the impacts from these standards are not accounted for in this analysis. Commercial marine emissions projections were developed similar to the 1996 base year estimates, with updated national commercial marine diesel emissions for 2007, 2020 and 2030 provided by OTAQ being distributed to the county based on the existing 1996 county-level distribution in the NET. These national estimates reflect the effect of Federal emission standards promulgated for new diesel-fueled commercial marine vessels. Commercial gasoline, commercial coal, and military marine emissions were grown from 1996 using BEA GSP growth factors. Locomotive emission estimates for 2007, 2020 and 2030 were based on corrected emission estimates from the Regulatory Support Document for locomotive emission standards (EPA, 1997). The correction reflects the standards taking effect in 2007, not 2002. This report contained emission projections for all criteria pollutants except for SO2; therefore, SO2 estimates from the current NET inventory were used. For the rulemaking support analysis, EPA assumed that future year fuel consumption will remain constant at 1996 levels. It was thought that improvements in the fuel efficiency of locomotives will offset the increase in the amount of freight hauled; therefore, no growth was assumed. The national emission estimates also accounted for future, phased-in controls that will primarily reduce NOX and PM emissions. These updated national estimates were distributed to the county-level using the existing county allocation in the 1996 NET inventory. 3. Methodologies for NH3 and SOA Updated values for national diesel and gasoline fuel consumption, as well as California diesel fuel consumption, were obtained from the June 2000 draft version of the NONROAD model for 2007, 2020, and 2030. Fuel consumption was distributed to counties using the 1996 county-level distribution. County-level fuel consumption estimates were then multiplied by the appropriate emission factor to estimate NH3 emissions for the projection years. For aircraft, commercial marine, and locomotive categories, 1996 base year NH3 emissions were projected to future years using the growth indicators listed in Table V-3. V-10 ------- SO A emissions were calculated for projection years using the same method used for the base year. Projected VOC emission estimates were multiplied by the appropriate fractional aerosol coefficient for each SCC. C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES Nonroad mass emissions were maintained in a separate data base from area source emissions, but the mass emissions file structure is the same for nonroad and area sources. Nonroad emissions are combined with area sources to produce the final emissions processor input files. Refer to Chapter IV for the mass and emissions processor input file names and structures. V-ll ------- CHAPTER VI ON-HIGHWAY VEHICLE SOURCES A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY This section summarizes the inputs and control programs that were modeled and adjustments that were made to the 1996 on-highway vehicle emissions inventory. The starting point for the 1996 on-highway vehicle emission inventory was the 1996 National Emission Trends highway vehicle emission factor database created in 1998 that was also used in support of EPA's Tier 2 rulemaking. The procedures document for the National Emissions Inventory provides more detail on the inputs contained in that analysis, but some of the key elements of that inventory are summarized here (EPA, 1998b). The 1996 vehicle miles traveled (VMT) used in this HDD analysis also uses the corresponding Trends VMT file as the starting point, with the updates discussed below. The 1996 VMT data is based on historical 1996 Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data obtained from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA, 1997). The HPMS database contains state-level summaries of average annual daily VMT by roadway type and by rural, small urban, and individual urban areas. The small urban and individual urban area VMT combined to make up the total urban VMT. Based on population data from the Bureau of Census (BOC, 1992), the HPMS data were distributed to counties at the roadway type level. A conversion was then made at the national roadway type level to convert the national VMT from the HPMS vehicle categories to the MOBILESb vehicle type categories. EPA's OTAQ provided a new mapping of the HPMS VMT by vehicle category to the MOBILES vehicle categories. This was an update from the VMT mapping used in the 1996 Trends VMT data base. Table VI-1 shows this new HPMS to MOBILES VMT allocation by vehicle type. Using the data in the table, national 1996 HPMS VMT, by rural and urban categories, were converted to total fraction of VMT by MOBILES vehicle type for rural roads and urban roads. These fractions were then multiplied by the 1996 VMT distributed by county and roadway type to create the new 1996 VMT file by county, roadway type, and vehicle type. Table VI-2 summarizes the resulting VMT data by vehicle type and shows the fraction of VMT in each of the MOBILES vehicle categories. Speeds modeled in this analysis, both in 1996 and the projection years, were constant by vehicle class and functional road class throughout the nation. In other words, the same speeds were modeled in all analysis years, and the speeds depended upon the vehicle type and road type. The origin of these speed data is an analysis performed on output from the HPMS impact analysis for 1990 (FHWA, 1990). Speeds from this analysis year were consistent with speeds from earlier analysis years. Table VI-3 shows the speeds modeled. VI-1 ------- Table VI-1 HPMS to MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category Assignments HPMS VMT Vehicle Category Motorcycle Passenger Car Buses Other 2-axle, 4-tire vehicles Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more trucks Combination trucks MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category MC LDGV LDDV HDGV HDDV LDGT1 LDGT2 LDDT HDGV HDDV HDGV HDDV HDGV HDDV 1996 VMT Fraction 1.0000 0.9945 0.0055 0.3077 0.6923 0.6621 0.2284 0.0054 0.0759 0.0282 0.2925 0.7075 0.0000 1.0000 Table VI-2 National 1996 VMT by Vehicle Type for HDD Analysis Vehicle Type LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV LDDV LDDT HDDV MC Total 1996 VMT (million miles) 1,455,403 538,255 185,684 82,355 8,054 4,388 190,994 9,872 2,475,004 1996 VMT Fractions 0.5880 0.2175 0.0750 0.0333 0.0033 0.0018 0.0772 0.0040 1.0000 VI-2 ------- Table VI-3 Average Speeds by Road Type and Vehicle Type (Miles per Hour) Rural Roadway Types LDV LOT HDV Interstate 60 55 40 Principal Arterial 45 45 35 Minor Arterial 40 40 30 Major Collector 35 35 25 Minor Collector 30 30 25 Local 30 30 25 Urban Roadway Types Other Freeways Principal Minor Interstate & Expressways Arterial Arterial Collector Local LDV LOT HDV 45 45 35 45 45 35 20 20 15 20 20 15 20 20 15 20 20 15 Vehicle registration distributions by vehicle age used in the 1996 NET include distributions provided by States through OTAG and the NOX SIP Call. Areas with no specified registration distribution were modeled with registration distributions by vehicle type developed based on national sales and registration data for 1996. The same registration distributions used in 1996 were also applied in both projection years. These registration distributions by age differ by the MOBILESb vehicle categories. Temperatures for 1996 were based on the average historical 1996 monthly maximum and minimum daily temperatures reported in a city selected to be representative of temperatures within a given State. Emission factors were calculated at the monthly level using these monthly temperatures. Monthly RVP data were also used in the MOBILESb inputs. These inputs were based on January and July RVP data from American Automobile Manufacturers Association's (AAMA's) fuel surveys (AAMA, 1996), and then allocated by month and area. More details on the temperature inputs and the RVP allocation procedures can be found in the Trends procedures document (EPA, 1998b). In addition to the inputs described above, control programs were modeled in 1996, as discussed below. VI-3 ------- 1. Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs Inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs were modeled in areas with such programs in place in 1996. The actual I/M inputs and the counties included in these programs were based on data collected in the OTAG process, as well as from state-level I/M program summary information provided by OTAQ (Somers, 1997a). The vehicle types affected by these programs vary by area but can include light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and trucks (LDGTls and LDGT2s) and heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDGVs). 2. RFC Phase 1 of the Federal RFG program was modeled in the 1996 MOBILESb inputs. The areas and counties that were modeled with RFG are shown in Table VI-4. Data on the RFG coverage was provided by OTAQ. The summertime RFG benefits were applied from May through September, while the winter RFG benefits were applied in the remaining months. California was modeled with the benefits of the Federal RFG program applied Statewide. 3. Oxygenated Gasoline Oxygenated gasoline was modeled in the areas participating in this program in 1996. A listing of these areas was provided by OTAQ (Somers, 1997b), along with the months that the oxygenated gasoline program was in place in these areas and the market share of ether and alcohol blends. The average oxygen content of ether blend fuels was assumed to be 2.7 percent in all oxygenated gasoline areas and the average oxygen content of alcohol blend fuels was assumed to be 3.5 percent in all oxygenated gasoline areas. Table VI-5 lists the counties modeled with oxygenated gasoline and the corresponding fuel parameters. 4. Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Programs In the 1996 analysis year, LEV programs were modeled in California, Massachusetts, and New York. The California program was modeled with a 1994 start year, using the MOBILES default LEV schedule. The LEV programs in Massachusetts and New York were modeled with start years of 1995 and 1996, respectively, with 15 percent of 1995 model year new vehicle sales (in Massachusetts only) meeting the intermediate Transitional LEV (TLEV) emission standards, 20 percent of 1996 model year new vehicle sales meeting the TLEV emission standards, and the remaining new vehicle sales meeting the Federal Tier I emission standards. The LEV programs affect LDGVs and LDGTls. VI-4 ------- Table VI-4 Counties Modeled with Federal Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) State/ Nonattainment Area County State/ Nonattainment Area County Arizona (Southern RFG) Phoenix Maricopa Co Connecticut (Northern RFG) Greater Connecticut Hartford Co Litchfield Co Middlesex Co New Haven Co New London Co Tolland Co Windham Co New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island Fairfield Co District of Columbia (Southern RFG) Washington DC Washington Delaware (Northern RFG) Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Kent Co New Castle Co Sussex County Sussex Co Illinois (Northern RFG) Chicago-Gary-Lake County Cook Co Du Page Co Grundy Co Kane Co Kendall Co Lake Co McHenry Co Will Co Indiana (Northern RFG) Chicago-Gary-Lake County Lake Co Porter Co Kentucky (Northern RFG) Cincinnati-Hamilton Boone Co Campbell Co Kenton Co Louisville Bullitt Co Jefferson Co Maine (Northern RFG) Knox & Lincoln Counties Knox Co Lincoln Co Lewiston-Auburn Androscoggin Co Kennebec Co Portland Cumberland Co SagadahocCo York Co Maryland (Southern RFG) Baltimore Anne Arundel Co Baltimore Baltimore Co Carroll Co Harford Co Howard Co Kent & Queen Annes Counties Kent Co Queen Annes Co Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Cecil Co Washington DC Calvert Co Charles Co Frederick Co Montgomery Co Prince Georges Co Massachusetts (Northern RFG) Boston-Lawrence-Worcester-Eastern MA Barnstable Co Bristol Co Dukes Co Essex Co Middlesex Co Nantucket Co Norfolk Co Plymouth Co Suffolk Co Worcester Co Springfield/Pittsfield-Western MA Berkshire Co Franklin Co VI-5 ------- Table VI-4 (continued) State/ Nonattainment Area County State/ Nonattainment Area County Oldham Co New Hampshire (Northern RFC) Manchester Hillsborough Co Merrimack Co Portsmouth-Dover-Rochester Rockingham Co Strafford Co New Jersey (Northern RFC) Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Warren Co Atlantic City Atlantic Co Cape May Co New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island Bergen Co Essex Co Hudson Co Hunterdon Co Middlesex Co Monmouth Co Morris Co Ocean Co Passaic Co Somerset Co Sussex Co Union Co Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Burlington Co Camden Co Cumberland Co Gloucester Co Mercer Co Salem Co New York (Northern RFC) New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island Bronx Co Kings Co Nassau Co New York Co Orange Co Queens Co Richmond Co Rockland Co Suffolk Co Westchester Co Hampden Co Hampshire Co New York (Northern RFC) Poughkeepsie Dutchess Co Putnam Co Pennsylvania (Northern RFC) Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Bucks Co Chester Co Delaware Co Montgomery Co Philadelphia Co Rhode Island (Northern RFC) Providence Bristol Co Kent Co Newport Co Providence Co Washington Co Texas (Southern RFC) Dallas-Fort Worth Collin Co Dallas Co Denton Co Tarrant Co Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Brazoria Co Chambers Co Fort Bend Co Galveston Co Harris Co Liberty Co Montgomery Co Waller Co Virginia (Southern RFC) Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News Chesapeake Hampton James City Co Newport News Norfolk Poquoson Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach Williamsburg VI-6 ------- Table VI-4 (continued) State/ Nonattainment Area County State/ Nonattainment Area County Virginia (Southern RFC) Richmond-Petersburg Washington DC Charles City Co Chesterfield Co Colonial Heights Hanover Co Henrico Co Hopewell Richmond Alexandria Arlington Co Fairfax Fairfax Co Falls Church Loudoun Co Manassas Manassas Park Prince William Co Stafford Co Wisconsin (Northern RFC) Milwaukee-Racine York Co Kenosha Co Milwaukee Co Ozaukee Co Racine Co Washington Co Waukesha Co NOTE: Federal reformulated gasoline was modeled statewide in California. Certain RFG fuel property requirements differ depending on whether an area receives Northern or Southern RFG. VI-7 ------- Table VI-5 Oxygenated Gasoline Modeling Parameters Market Shares (%) State Alaska Alaska Arizona Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Connecticut Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Montana Nevada Nevada New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Jersey New Mexico New York New York County Anchorage Ed Anchorage Ed Maricopa Co Adams Co Arapahoe Co Boulder Co Douglas Co Jefferson Co Denver Co El Paso Co Larimer Co Fairfield Co Anoka Co Carver Co Dakota Co Hennepin Co Ramsey Co Scott Co Washington Co Wright Co Chisago Co Isanti Co Missoula Co Clark Co Washoe Co Bergen Co Essex Co Hudson Co Hunterdon Co Mercer Co Middlesex Co Monmouth Co Morris Co Ocean Co Passaic Co Somerset Co Sussex Co Union Co Bernalillo Co Bronx Co Kings Co MTBE 0 0 80 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 90 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 15 95 95 Alcohol Blends 100 100 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 10 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 100 100 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 85 5 5 Oxygen Content (%) MTBE Alcohol Blends 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Oxygenated Gasoline Season NOV-FEB (2007, 2020, & 2030) NOV-DEC (1996 only) OCT-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN OCT-JAN NOV-FEB OCT-MAR OCT-JAN NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB JAN-FEB (1996 only) NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB JAN-FEB (1996 only) NOV-FEB NOV-FEB VI-8 ------- Market Shares (%) State New York New York New York New York New York New York New York New York New York Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Texas Utah Washington Washington Washington Washington Wisconsin County Nassau Co New York Co Queens Co Richmond Co Rockland Co Suffolk Co Westchester Co Orange Co Putnam Co Clackamas Co Jackson Co Multnomah Co Washington Co Josephine Co Klamath Co Yamhill Co El Paso Co Utah Co Clark Co King Co Snohomish Co Spokane Co St. Croix Co MTBE 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 15 20 1 1 1 1 10 Alcohol Blends 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 85 80 99 99 99 99 90 Oxygen Content (%) MTBE Alcohol Blends 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Oxygenated Gasoline Season NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB NOV-FEB JAN-FEB (1996 only) JAN-FEB (1996 only) SEP-FEB OCT-JAN 5. MOBILES to MOBILES Adjustment Factors VOC, NOX, and CO on-highway vehicle emission factors were calculated using the above inputs and EPA's MOBILESb emission factor model. Emission factors for on-highway SO2, PM10, and PM25 were calculated using EPA's PARTS model and NH3 emission factors for on- highway vehicles were calculated using national vehicle-specific emission factors (Harvey, 1983). Various adjustment factors were then applied to the MOBILESb VOC and NOX emission factors to simulate emission factors that would result from using MOBJLE6, as well as accounting for issues not included in MOBILESb. Each of these adjustments are discussed below. All of the adjustment factors discussed in these sections were provided by OTAQ. a. VOC and NOX Exhaust Adjustments Adjustment factors to convert the MOBILESb emission factors to MOBILE6 emission factors were applied to the VOC exhaust and NOX MOBILESb output emission factors for LDGVs, LDGTls, LDGT2s, HDGVs, LDDVs, and LDDTs. These factors varied by vehicle type and by control combination. The control combination included one of three fuel types (conventional gasoline, western gasoline, and reformulated gasoline) and one of three I/M VI-9 ------- categories (no I/M, I/M, and appropriate I/M). (An appropriate //Mprogram is defined as one that meets EPA's requirements to be modeled with the maximum LEV benefits.) Each county in the nation was assigned one of these control combinations. The corresponding adjustment factor was then applied to each monthly, vehicle type emission factor for each county in the nation. Table VI-6 lists the exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment factors applied in 1996 and the projection years and Table VI-7 lists the NOX MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment factors. Both tables are by vehicle type and control combination. b. Air Conditioning Usage Factors An additional adjustment was applied to the NOX LDGV, LDGT1, and LDGT2 emission factors (already adjusted, as above to MOBILE6 emission rates) in 1996. This adjustment accounted for the additional NOX emissions that would occur with air conditioning usage that is not included in the MOBILES emission factors. The air conditioning usage factors consist of two components: a factor simulating full air conditioning usage and a temperature dependent factor that adjusts the full usage factor for usage at the given temperature. These two factors were multiplied and then added to the MOBILE6-adjusted NOX emission factors. The full usage factor is dependent upon vehicle type and the same control combinations listed with the MOBILE6 adjustments (with the exception that areas with both I/M and appropriate I/M are categorized together for this adjustment). Table VI-8 lists the full usage NOX air conditioning usage factors. The air conditioning adjustment becomes 0 below temperatures of 68 °F. Above temperatures of 109°F, the full usage factor is applied directly. The temperatures used to calculate this adjustment were the ambient temperatures calculated by MOBILESb and included in the MOBILESb output files. The temperature dependent equation is as follows: Temp Adj = -3.631541 + 0.072465 * AMBTEMP - 0.000276 * (AMBTEMPA2) This temperature adjustment was then multiplied by the corresponding full usage factor and the result was added to the MOBILE6-adjusted NOX emission factors. c. HDDV Adjustment Factors The final set of adjustment factors applied to the 1996 on-highway vehicle emission inventories is the set of HDDV adjustment factors. These factors account for the emission factor updates from data collected by OTAQ for MOBILE6 for VOC, NOX, CO, SO2, PM10, and PM2 5 as well as the NOX emission changes due to the use of the HDDV defeat devices. The factors vary by roadway type, as shown in Table VI-9. VI-10 ------- Table VI-6 Exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors Year 1996 2007 2020 2030 Control Combination APR IM CG APR IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST APP IM CG APP IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST APP IM CG APP IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST APP IM CG APP IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless) LDGV 0.880 0.969 0.880 0.880 0.969 0.880 0.787 0.870 0.787 0.700 0.849 0.745 0.568 0.682 0.605 0.502 0.608 0.532 1.496 1.751 1.499 0.297 0.344 0.297 0.277 0.337 0.278 1.644 1.925 1.645 0.273 0.321 0.274 0.263 0.324 0.263 LDGT1 0.896 0.973 0.896 0.896 0.973 0.896 0.834 0.905 0.834 0.805 0.969 0.857 0.621 0.742 0.661 0.545 0.652 0.575 1.233 1.443 1.235 0.282 0.327 0.282 0.284 0.346 0.284 1.509 1.766 1.511 0.258 0.303 0.258 0.268 0.330 0.268 LDGT2 1.132 1.203 1.132 1.132 1.203 1.132 1.020 1.084 1.020 0.758 0.973 0.828 0.758 0.973 0.828 0.640 0.826 0.699 0.302 0.347 0.303 0.302 0.347 0.303 0.263 0.309 0.264 0.201 0.241 0.202 0.201 0.241 0.202 0.200 0.249 0.200 LDDV 1.231 1.231 1.231 1.231 1.231 1.231 1.231 1.231 1.231 0.917 0.907 0.917 0.917 0.907 0.917 0.939 0.905 0.939 0.319 0.288 0.319 0.319 0.288 0.319 0.386 0.440 0.386 0.285 0.253 0.285 0.285 0.253 0.285 0.355 0.422 0.355 LDDT 1.385 1.385 1.385 1.385 1.385 1.385 1.385 1.385 1.385 0.874 0.853 0.874 0.874 0.853 0.874 0.907 0.881 0.907 0.271 0.229 0.271 0.271 0.229 0.271 0.476 0.409 0.476 0.266 0.222 0.266 0.266 0.222 0.266 0.494 0.424 0.494 HDGV 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.431 0.431 0.431 0.431 0.431 0.431 0.431 0.431 0.431 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 VI-11 ------- Table VI-7 NOX MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors Year 1996 2007 2020 2030 Control Combination APR IM CG APR IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IMCG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST APP IM CG APP IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IMCG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST APP IM CG APP IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IMCG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST APP IM CG APP IM RFC APP IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IMCG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless) LDGV 0.948 0.965 0.948 0.948 0.965 0.948 0.885 0.901 0.885 0.724 0.761 0.748 0.590 0.620 0.610 0.556 0.584 0.573 0.550 0.583 0.556 0.184 0.195 0.186 0.235 0.250 0.238 0.474 0.505 0.476 0.148 0.157 0.149 0.207 0.220 0.207 LDGT1 0.948 0.961 0.948 0.948 0.961 0.948 0.875 0.886 0.875 0.936 0.977 0.967 0.766 0.801 0.791 0.710 0.743 0.732 0.471 0.497 0.476 0.212 0.224 0.214 0.283 0.300 0.286 0.424 0.450 0.428 0.176 0.187 0.178 0.252 0.267 0.254 LDGT2 1.037 1.045 1.037 1.037 1.045 1.037 0.976 0.984 0.976 0.741 0.772 0.754 0.741 0.772 0.754 0.652 0.679 0.663 0.300 0.314 0.303 0.300 0.314 0.303 0.306 0.321 0.309 0.180 0.189 0.184 0.180 0.189 0.184 0.222 0.233 0.225 LDDV 1.104 1.104 1.104 1.104 1.104 1.104 1.104 1.104 1.104 0.740 0.739 0.740 0.740 0.739 0.740 0.741 0.740 0.741 0.144 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.143 0.144 0.234 0.226 0.234 0.118 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.116 0.118 0.219 0.210 0.219 LDDT 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 0.694 0.688 0.694 0.694 0.688 0.694 0.719 0.714 0.719 0.158 0.155 0.158 0.158 0.155 0.158 0.285 0.280 0.285 0.161 0.159 0.161 0.161 0.159 0.161 0.303 0.298 0.303 HDGV 0.908 0.908 0.908 0.908 0.908 0.908 0.908 0.908 0.908 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.675 0.288 0.288 0.288 0.288 0.288 0.288 0.288 0.288 0.288 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 VI-12 ------- Table VI-8 NOX Full Usage Air Conditioning Adjustment Factors Year 1996 2007 2020 2030 Control Combination IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (grams/mile) LDGV 0.321 0.321 0.321 0.347 0.347 0.347 0.195 0.190 0.202 0.222 0.217 0.230 0.063 0.062 0.063 0.093 0.092 0.094 0.055 0.054 0.055 0.085 0.084 0.085 LDGT1 0.194 0.194 0.194 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.142 0.138 0.146 0.163 0.159 0.167 0.047 0.046 0.047 0.073 0.072 0.073 0.041 0.040 0.041 0.068 0.067 0.068 LDGT2 0.252 0.252 0.252 0.266 0.266 0.266 0.179 0.176 0.182 0.195 0.192 0.198 0.072 0.071 0.073 0.099 0.097 0.099 0.054 0.053 0.055 0.083 0.082 0.084 VI-13 ------- Table VI-9 HDDV Base Case Adjustment Factors Adjustment Factor (unitless) Year 1996 2007 2020 2030 Facility Interstate Interstate Interstate Interstate Arterial Arterial Arterial Arterial Urban Urban Urban Urban Interstate Interstate Interstate Interstate Arterial Arterial Arterial Arterial Urban Urban Urban Urban Interstate Interstate Interstate Interstate Arterial Arterial Arterial Arterial Urban Urban Urban Urban Interstate Interstate Interstate Interstate Arterial Arterial Arterial Arterial Urban Urban Urban Urban Description Rural Rural Urban Urban Rural Rural Rural Rural Urban Urban Urban Urban Rural Rural Urban Urban Rural Rural Rural Rural Urban Urban Urban Urban Rural Rural Urban Urban Rural Rural Rural Rural Urban Urban Urban Urban Rural Rural Urban Urban Rural Rural Rural Rural Urban Urban Urban Urban Interstate Other Prin Arterial Interstate Other Freeways Minor Arterial Major Collector Minor Collector Local Other Prin Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Local Interstate Other Prin Arterial Interstate Other Freeways Minor Arterial Major Collector Minor Collector Local Other Prin Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Local Interstate Other Prin Arterial Interstate Other Freeways Minor Arterial Major Collector Minor Collector Local Other Prin Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Local Interstate Other Prin Arterial Interstate Other Freeways Minor Arterial Major Collector Minor Collector Local Other Prin Arterial Minor Arterial Collector Local voc 0.6858 0.6858 0.6858 0.6858 0.5712 0.5712 0.5712 0.5712 0.5916 0.5916 0.5916 0.5916 0.3750 0.3750 0.3750 0.3750 0.3153 0.3153 0.3153 0.3153 0.3090 0.3090 0.3090 0.3090 0.3229 0.3229 0.3229 0.3229 0.2499 0.2499 0.2499 0.2499 0.2351 0.2351 0.2351 0.2351 0.3103 0.3103 0.3103 0.3103 0.2394 0.2394 0.2394 0.2394 0.2251 0.2251 0.2251 0.2251 0, 0, 0, 0, CO .8030 .8030 .8030 .8030 0.6106 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 .6106 .6106 .6106 .6275 .6275 .6275 .6275 .4076 .4076 .4076 .4076 .3191 .3191 .3191 .3191 .3203 .3203 .3203 .3203 .3721 .3721 .3721 .3721 .2852 .2852 .2852 .2852 .2786 .2786 .2786 .2786 .3658 .3658 .3658 .3658 .2809 0.2809 0.2809 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, .2809 .2746 .2746 .2746 .2746 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NOV .2973 .2973 .2973 .2973 .2723 .2723 .2723 .2723 .0240 .0240 .0240 .0240 .6939 .6939 .6939 .6939 .1260 .1260 .1260 .1260 .0908 .0908 .0908 .0908 .7099 .7099 .7099 .7099 .3144 .3144 .3144 .3144 .3130 .3130 .3130 .3130 .7078 .7078 .7078 .7078 .3586 .3586 .3586 .3586 .3713 .3713 .3713 .3713 0. 0, 0. 0. 0, 0. 0. 0. 0, 0. 0, 0, 0. 0, 0. 0. 0, 0. 0. 0. 0, 0. 0, 0, 0. 0, 0. 0. 0, 0. 0. 0. 0, 0. 0, 0, 0. 0, 0. 0. 0, 0. 0. 0. 0, 0. 0, 0, PM 8666 .8666 8666 8666 .7110 ,7110 ,7110 ,7110 .7549 ,7549 .7549 .7549 9564 .9564 9564 9564 .7918 ,7918 ,7918 ,7918 .7924 7924 .7924 .7924 9220 .9220 9220 9220 .7506 ,7506 ,7506 ,7506 .7262 7262 .7262 .7262 ,9131 .9131 ,9131 ,9131 .7411 ,7411 ,7411 ,7411 .7161 ,7161 .7161 .7161 SO, 0.7063 0.7063 0.7063 0.7063 0.6085 0.6085 0.6085 0.6085 0.6268 0.6268 0.6268 0.6268 0.6968 0.6968 0.6968 0.6968 0.6077 0.6077 0.6077 0.6077 0.6264 0.6264 0.6264 0.6264 0.6506 0.6506 0.6506 0.6506 0.5799 0.5799 0.5799 0.5799 0.6005 0.6005 0.6005 0.6005 0.5948 0.5948 0.5948 0.5948 0.5390 0.5390 0.5390 0.5390 0.5606 0.5606 0.5606 0.5606 VI-14 ------- B. 2007, 2020, AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES This section summarizes the growth assumptions made and control programs applied to calculate the 2007, 2020, and 2030 on-highway vehicle emission inventories. As discussed above, the registration distributions and speeds modeled in 1996 were also used in the projection years. The temperatures modeled in the projection years represented State-specific average monthly maximum and minimum daily temperatures averaged from 1970 through 1997 using data from the National Climatic Data Center. The same temperatures were modeled in 2007, 2020, and 2030. 1. Growth Assumptions The VMT used in 2007, 2020, and 2030 were projected from 1996, using VMT projection data from EPA's Tier 2 rulemaking (EPA, 1999c). First, VMT from the Tier 2 analysis were totaled by county and vehicle type for 1996 and the projection years. Next, each VMT record from the 1996 data base (at the county, vehicle type, and roadway type level of detail) developed for this HDD rulemaking analysis and discussed earlier in this chapter was multiplied by the ratio of the corresponding Tier 2 projection year VMT to the 1996 Tier 2 VMT (both at the county and vehicle type level of detail). In this manner, the 1996 VMT shifts by vehicle class from the Tier 2 analysis to the HDD analysis were projected to the future using the area and vehicle type- specific growth factors from the Tier 2 analysis. The resulting projection year VMT and the corresponding VMT fractions by vehicle type are shown in Table VI-10. Table VI-10 National VMT Projections and VMT Fractions by Vehicle Type for HDD Analysis Vehicle Type LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV LDDV LDDT HDDV MC Total Annual 2007 1,245,991 1,207,617 268,323 119,002 0 4,108 275,722 14,265 3,135,027 VMT (million 2020 1,283,189 1,670,987 371,876 165,884 0 5,112 384,106 19,885 3,901,040 miles) 2030 1,311,807 2,027,426 451,534 201,948 0 5,885 467,480 24,208 4,490,287 VMT Fractions 2007 0.397 0.385 0.086 0.038 0.000 0.001 0.088 0.005 1.000 2020 0.329 0.428 0.095 0.043 0.000 0.001 0.098 0.005 1.000 2030 0.292 0.452 0.101 0.045 0.000 0.001 0.104 0.005 1.000 2. Base Case Control Assumptions This section summarizes the control programs that were modeled for highway vehicles in 2007, 2020, and 2030. The Control Case was modeled by applying reduction percentages to the heavy-duty gasoline vehicle (HDGV) and HDDV Base Case emissions and additional SO2 reductions to light-duty diesel emissions. VI-15 ------- a. I/M Programs I/M program inputs were the same in all of the projection years. The default program parameters for counties expected to have I/M programs in place in the projection years are the EPA performance standard I/M program inputs. The specific inputs modeled for each of the I/M program performance standards are shown in Table VI-11. I/M program Table VI-11 I/M Performance Standard Program Inputs I/M Program Name I/M Program Parameters Program Start Year Stringency Level (Percent) Model Years Covered Waiver Rate For Pre-1981 Model Years (%) Waiver Rate For 1981 and Later Models (%) Compliance Rate (%) Program Type Inspection Frequency Vehicle Types Inspected LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV Test Type I/M Cutpoints Effectiveness Rates (% hydrocarbon (HC)/CO/NOX) Program Start Year Stringency Level (Percent) Model Years Covered Waiver Rate For Pre-1981 Model Years (%) Waiver Rate For 1981 and Later Models (%) Compliance Rate (%) Program Type Inspection Frequency Vehicle Types Inspected LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV Test Type I/M Cutpoints (g/mi HC/CO/NOX) Effectiveness Rates (% HC/CO/NOX) Anti-Tampering Program Parameters Program Start Year Model Years Covered Basic I/M Performance Standard 1983 20 1968-2020 0 0 100 TO Annual YES NO NO NO IdleTest 220/1 .2/999 1.00/1.00/1.00 Low Enhanced I/M Performance Standard 1983 20 1968-2020 3 3 96 TO Annual YES YES YES NO IdleTest 220/1 .2/999 1.00/1.00/1.00 1995 1972-2020 High Enhanced I/M Performance Standard 1983 20 1968-1985 3 3 96 TO Annual YES YES YES NO 2500/ldleTest 220/1 .2/999 1.00/1.00/1.00 1983 20 1986-2020 3 3 96 TO Annual YES YES YES NO TransientTest 0.80/20.0/2.00 1.00/1.00/1.00 1995 1984-2020 VI-16 ------- Table VI-11 (continued) I/M Program Name Basic I/M Performance Standard Low Enhanced I/M Performance Standard High Enhanced I/M Performance Standard I/M Program Parameters Vehicle Types Inspected LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV Program Type Effectiveness Rate Inspection Frequency Compliance Rate (%) Inspections Performed Air Pump System Catalyst Fuel Inlet Restrictor Tailpipe Lead Deposit Test EGR System Evaporative Emission Control System PCV System Gas Cap Functional Pressure Test Program Parameters Program Start Year Model Years Covered Effectiveness Rate Vehicle Types Tested LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV Program Type Inspection Frequency Compliance Rate (%) Purge Test Program Parameters Program Start Year Model Years Covered Effectiveness Rate Vehicle Types Tested LDGV LDGT1 LDGT2 HDGV Program Type Inspection Frequency Compliance Rate (%) YES YES YES NO TO 1.00 Annual 96 NO NO NO NO YES NO NO NO YES YES YES NO TO 1.00 Annual 96 NO YES YES NO NO NO NO NO 1995 1983-2020 1.00 YES YES YES NO TO Annual 96 1995 1986-2020 1.00 YES YES YES NO TO Annual 96 NOTES: TO=Test Only TRC=Test And Repair (Computerized) VI-17 ------- coverage by county or area was based on data collected by EPA and Pechan for the OTAG and Section 812 emission projections. During this data collection process, each State was contacted to confirm which counties in that State would be implementing an I/M program in the future. Each State was also asked to indicate which of the EPA I/M program types the program would most closely resemble ~ high enhanced, low enhanced, basic, or Ozone Transport Region (OTR) low enhanced. Responses were collected from each State with a planned CAA I/M program. Any additional I/M-specific information collected during comment periods for EPA's NOX SIP Call, and accepted by EPA, superseded the default and OTAG I/M data. b. RFC Phase II of this Federal RFG program was modeled in the projection years. Coverage of RFG in the projection years was the same as that in 1996, with the following exceptions: all Maine counties and Orange County, NY were removed from the 1996 list, shown in Table VI-4. The entire State of California was modeled with Federal Phase II RFG (ASTM Class B) in the projection years. Areas not participating in the RFG program were modeled during the ozone season months with Phase IIRVP values of either 8.7 pounds per square inch (psi) or 7.8 psi. Areas that provided SIP Call comments documenting the presence of a low RVP program were modeled at that RVP during the ozone season. c. Oxygenated Fuel The oxygenated fuel program inputs and county coverages modeled are the same as those described for 1996, with the specific changes listed in Table VI-5 for several of the areas for 2007, 2020, and 2030. d. National LEV (NLEV) Program The NLEV program was included for all States in the projection year modeling. This program starts with the 2001 model year nationwide, and in 1999 in the Northeast Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) States. The implementation schedule of the NLEV program in the OTC States is shown below. Model Year 1999 2000 2001 and later Federal Tier I Standards 30% Transitional LEV Standards 40% 40% LEV Standards 30% 60% 1 00% States in the OTC that have adopted a LEV program on their own were modeled with the characteristics of their programs. These States include Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and Maine. California's LEV program began in 1994. This was modeled using the MOBILESb default LEV implementation schedule, along with a start year of 1994 for this program. The following table shows the emission standards of the Federal Tier I program, the transitional LEV (TLEV) standards, the LEV standards, and the Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle VI-18 ------- (ULEV) standards. These standards apply to the LDGV and LDGTla classes of vehicles. The LDGTlb category is also included in the NLEV program, but the emission standards for these vehicles are slightly less stringent than those listed below for the lighter vehicles. Nonmethane Organic Emission Standard Gas (NMOG) CO NOX Federal Tier 1 TLEV LEV ULEV 0.250 grams/mile nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) 0.125 grams/mile 0.075 grams/mile 0.040 grams/mile 3.4 grams/mile 3.4 grams/mile 3.4 grams/mile 1.7 grams/mile 0.40 grams/mile 0.40 grams/mile 0.20 grams/mile 0.20 grams/mile e. 2004 NOX Standard for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines EPA determined that additional reductions in NOX and NMHC emissions are needed at the national level from heavy-duty vehicles and promulgated a new NOX plus NMHC standard of 2.5 grams per brake horsepower-hour (g/bhp-hr). This standard was modeled in the MOBILESb input files following the guidance provided in "MOBILES Information Sheet #5, Inclusion of New 2004 NOX Standard for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines in MOBILESa and MOBILESb Modeling" issued on January 30, 1998. (http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/mobile5/m5info5.pdf) In effect, this modeling reduces the HDDV emission factors starting with the 2004 model year to be consistent with the new standard, and is applied nationally. f. Tier 2/Low Sulfur Gasoline Controls and 2007, 2020, and 2030 Adjustment Factors The 1996 section of this chapter discusses the VOC exhaust and NOX MOBILESb to MOBILE 6 adjustment factors, the air conditioning usage adjustment factors, and the HDDV NOX defeat device adjustment factors. The actual factors applied, including those applied in 2007, 2020, and 2030 were shown in Tables VI-6 through VI-9. The adjustment factors applied in the projection years include the effect of the Tier 2 emission standards and low sulfur gasoline, in addition to MOBILE6 adjustments. Although the appropriate I/M category was included in the 1996 adjustment tables, the adjustments were the same as those for I/M. For the projection years, these two categories have different adjustment factors in most cases. In general, areas modeled with the EPA enhanced performance standard, or an equivalent I/M program, were grouped in the "APP EVI" category. Several exceptions to this general rule occurred for areas that indicated through comments to the NOX SIP Call that were accepted by EPA specifically indicating that the area should or should not be modeled with the maximum LEV benefits. i. VOC Evaporative Adjustments An additional set of MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment factors was applied to the VOC evaporative emission factors in 2007, 2020, and 2030 that were not applied in 1996. These adjustments result from the Tier 2 and low sulfur fuel controls. These factors were applied to the evaporative portion of the VOC emission factors for LDGVs, LDGTls, and LDGT2s, and are shown in Table VI-12. VI-19 ------- ii. On-board Diagnostics To simulate the effects of on-board diagnostic (OBD) devices in the projection years, adjustments were made to the MOBILESb input files for areas modeled with an I/M program. This was modeled by adding or modifying pressure and purge test input lines, such that 1996 and later model year LDGVs and LDGTs would receive the full benefits of a test-only pressure test and purge test. iii. PM and SO2 Adjustment Factors An additional set of factors was applied to PM and gasoline-fueled vehicle SO2 emission factors in the projection years. The PM factors are shown in Table VI-13 and were applied only to the exhaust portion of the PM10 and PM2 5 emission factors for LDGVs, LDGTs, HDGVs, LDDVs, and LDDTs. The brake wear and tire wear portions of the PM factors were not adjusted. Table VI-14 lists the SO2 factors applied. These factors apply to all gasoline vehicle types and account for the lower levels of sulfur in gasoline under EPA's final Tier 2/1 ow sulfur fuel rulemaking. 3. Control Case Emission Reductions Once the Base Case highway vehicle emission inventories were prepared, the highway vehicle Control Case emission inventories for 2007, 2020, and 2030 were calculated by multiplying the base emissions by the specified reduction percentages. Emission reduction percentages were supplied by OTAQ as national reduction percentages. Table VI-15 lists these reduction percentages for the vehicle types and pollutants whose emissions were reduced from the Base Case to the Control Case. For HDDVs, the controls were applied to VOC, NOX, CO, exhaust PM10, exhaust PM2 5, and SO2. Exhaust and evaporative VOC emissions and NOX emissions were reduced from HDGVs. SO2 emissions were reduced from LDDVs and LDDTs (as well as HDDVs) due to the lower diesel fuel sulfur content included in the HDD proposal. C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND EMISSIONS PROCESSOR INPUT FILES 1. EMS-95 Emissions Processor Input Files The highway vehicle-related files submitted as inputs to EMS-95 consist of MOBILESb input shells, three VMT-related files, and an adjustment factor file. The MOBILESb input shells are a set of MOBILESb input files that correspond to each of the MOBILESb input files developed in calculating the mass emissions inventory, but with only one scenario, representing July controls and at a single speed and temperature combination. The EMS-95 models then use these MOBILESb shells to generate emission factors at all of the temperature and speed combinations necessary for the hourly meteorological conditions being modeled. The three VMT files include a file with the total VMT by county and road type. The VMT data in these files represents an annual average day (i.e., annual VMT/365). The format of these files is shown in Table VI-16. These models then break the VMT down by vehicle type using the VMT mix by hour, county, road type, and vehicle type. The file structure of these VMT mix files are shown in Table VI-17. (It should be noted that for this analysis, there is no difference in the VMT mixes VI-20 ------- TableVI-12 Evaporative VOC MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors Year 2007 2020 2030 Control Combination IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST IMCG IMRFG IM WEST NO IM CG NO IM RFC NO IM WEST Adjustment Factors by Vehicle Type (unitless) LDGV 0.985 0.984 0.985 0.992 0.988 0.992 0.883 0.846 0.883 0.945 0.919 0.945 0.874 0.842 0.874 0.941 0.913 0.941 LDGT1 0.984 0.983 0.984 0.992 0.991 0.992 0.880 0.855 0.880 0.954 0.935 0.954 0.860 0.830 0.860 0.948 0.926 0.948 LDGT2 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.941 0.915 0.941 0.978 0.967 0.978 0.915 0.884 0.915 0.974 0.959 0.974 VI-21 ------- TableVI-13 PM Adjustment Factors Year 2007 2020 2030 Control Combination CG RFC WEST CG RFC WEST CG RFC WEST Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless) LDGV 0.416 0.624 0.416 0.416 0.625 0.416 0.417 0.625 0.417 LDGT1 0.342 0.563 0.342 0.337 0.559 0.337 0.333 0.556 0.333 LDGT2 0.370 0.591 0.370 0.349 0.571 0.349 0.333 0.556 0.333 HDGV 0.767 0.848 0.767 0.767 0.848 0.767 0.767 0.848 0.767 LDDV 0.826 0.826 0.826 0.421 0.421 0.421 0.109 0.109 0.109 LDDT 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.408 0.408 0.408 0.107 0.107 0.107 MC 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 TableVI-14 SO2 Adjustment Factors Year 2007 2020 2030 Control Combination CG RFC WEST CG RFC WEST CG RFC WEST Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless) LDGV 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 LDGT1 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 LDGT2 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 HDGV 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 LDDV 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 LDDT 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 MC 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 0.088 0.224 0.088 VI-22 ------- TableVI-15 HDD Control Case Emission Reduction Percentages Calendar Year 2007 2020 2030 2007 2020 2030 2007 2020 2030 2007 2020 2030 Vehicle Type HDDV HDDV HDDV HDGV HDGV HDGV LDDV LDDV LDDV LDDT LDDT LDDT National Reduction Exhaust VOC 4.82% 80.64% 89.43% 0.45% 17.17% 24.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Evaporative VOC 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 8.78% 9.78% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% NOX 1 .08% 75.21% 89.50% 1 .02% 33.43% 53.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% CO 5.84% 82.40% 89.99% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Exhaust PM10 1 1 .96% 83.89% 92.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Exhaust PM25 1 1 .96% 83.89% 92.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% SO2 97.64% 97.65% 97.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 97.88% 97.88% 97.88% 97.88% 97.88% 97.88% to ------- TableVI-16 Structure for VMT Files (OFNVMTyy.TXT) Variable Type Length Decimals Description FIPSST FIPSCNTY ROADTYPE C C C to VMT N 2 3 2 15 0 FIPS State Code 0 FIPS County Code 0 Roadway Type as Defined by Codes Below: R1-Rural Interstates R2-Rural Other Principal Arterials R6-Rural Minor Arterials R7-Rural Major Collectors R8-Rural Minor Collectors R9-Rural Locals U1-Urban Interstates U2-Urban Other Freeways and Expressways U4-Urban Other Principal Arterials Lie-Urban Minor Arterials U7-Urban Collectors U9-Urban Locals 3 Annual Average Daily VMT (miles) ------- TableVI-17 Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (NTVMIXyy.TXT) to Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY ROADTYPE LINKID HOUR VEHMIX01 VEHMIX02 VEHMIX03 VEHMIX04 VEHMIX05 VEHMIX06 VEHMIX07 VEHMIX08 Type C C C C N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 2 10 2 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Decimals 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Roadway Type as Defined by Codes Below: 01 -Rural Interstates 02-Rural Other Principal Arterials 06-Rural Minor Arterials 07-Rural Major Collectors 08-Rural Minor Collectors 09-Rural Locals 11 -Urban Interstates 12-Urban Other Freeways and Expressways 14-Urban Other Principal Arterials 16-Urban Minor Arterials 17-Urban Collectors 19-Urban Locals Not Used Hour of Day (1 through 24) VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Gas Vehicles VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Gas Trucks 1 VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Gas Trucks 2 VMT Mix Fraction for Heavy-Duty Gas Vehicles VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles VMT Mix Fraction for Light-Duty Diesel Trucks VMT Mix Fraction for Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles VMT Mix Fraction for Motorcycles ------- VMT mixes by hour of the day.) The third VMT-related file provided for each year includes a file with average speed information by county and road type. The format of these files is shown in Table VI-18. Each of these three VMT-related files varies only by year, and not by control case. The last file included for the EMS-95 modeling related to the on-highway vehicle modeling varies by year and control case and includes the adjustment factors to be applied by county and vehicle type. The format of these files is shown in Table VI-19. The HDDV adjustment factors, and the air conditioning temperature-dependent equation were applied separately in the modeling code and were not included in the adjustment factor files. 2. EPS 2.5 and Mass Emission Inventory - File Structures The EPS 2.5 files for on-highway vehicle sources consist of monthly emissions data by county, vehicle type, and roadway type. The EPS 2.5 modeling files were assembled from detailed monthly emission files, developed as discussed in the sections above. Separate EPS 2.5 files were created for for each Base and Control Case. All of the on-highway EPS 2.5 emission files have the same format. This format is shown in Table VI-20. The format of the final mass emissions file, which contain annual and SSD emissions for each pollutant are shown in Table VI-21. The same set of years and cases applies to the mass emissions files. It should be noted that the SSD values for the on-highway vehicle emissions are calculated by dividing July emissions by 31. An additional set of files was prepared for 1996, 2030 Base Case, and 2030 Control Case for use in air toxics modeling. These files were identical to the corresponding mass emissions files, except that the PM10 and PM2 5 emission fields included only exhaust PM10 or PM2 5 emissions. Emissions from brake wear and tire wear were excluded from these files. The format of these files is the format shown in Table VI-21. All exhaust PM10 and PM25 adjustments discussed in this chapter were also applied in these files. VI-26 ------- TableVI-18 Structure for VMT Vehicle Mix Files (OFNSPyy.TXT) Variable Type Length Decimals Description FIPSST FIPSCNTY ROADTYPE C C C 2 3 2 AVESPEED N 0 FIPS State Code 0 FIPS County Code 0 Roadway Type as Defined by Codes Below: 01-Rural Interstates 02-Rural Other Principal Arterials 06-Rural Minor Arterials 07-Rural Major Collectors 08-Rural Minor Collectors 09-Rural Locals 11-Urban Interstates 12-Urban Other Freeways and Expressways 14-Urban Other Principal Arterials 16-Urban Minor Arterials 17-Urban Collectors 19-Urban Locals 1 Average Vehicle Speed (miles per hour) TableVI-19 Structure for Adjustment Factor Files Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY V_TYPE EXHVOCADJ EXHNOXADJ NOXACADJ EVAPVOCADJ Type C C C N N N N Length 2 3 1 10 10 10 10 Decimals 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 Description FIPS State Code FIPS County Code Vehicle Type : 1 = LDGV, 2 = LDGT1 , 3 = LDGT2, 4 = HDGV, 5 = MC, 6 = LDDV, 7 = LDDT, 8 = HDDV Multiplicative Exhaust VOC Adjustment Factor Multiplicative NOX Adjustment Factor Additive NOX Full Air Conditioning Usage Adjustment Factor (to be multiplied by temperature-dependent equation) Multiplicative Evaporative VOC Adjustment Factor VI-27 ------- Table VI-20 Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source EPS Data Files Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY sec V_TYPE VOC NOX CO SO2 PM10 PM25 SOA NH3 VOC_JAN VOC_FEB VOC_MAR VOC_APR VOC_MAY VOC_JUN VOC_JUL VOC_AUG VOC_SEP VOC_OCT VOC_NOV VOC_DEC NOX_JAN NOX_FEB NOX_MAR NOX_APR NOX_MAY NOX_JUN NOX_JUL NOX_AUG NOX_SEP NOX_OCT NOX_NOV NOX_DEC CO_JAN CO_FEB CO_MAR CO_APR CO_MAY Type C C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 10 5 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Decimals 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Description FIPS state code FIPS county code AMS Source Category Code Vehicle Type Annual VOC Emissions [tons per year (tpy)] Annual NOX Emissions (tpy) Annual CO Emissions (tpy) Annual SO2 Emissions (tpy) Annual PM10 Emissions (tpy) Annual PM25 Emissions (tpy) Annual SOA Emissions (tpy) Annual NH3 Emissions (tpy) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly VOC Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NOX Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) VI-28 ------- Table VI-20 (continued) Variable CO_JUN CO_JUL CO_AUG CO_SEP CO_OCT CO_NOV CO_DEC SO2_JAN SO2_FEB S02_MAR S02_APR SO2_MAY SO2_JUN S02_JUL S02_AUG SO2_SEP SO2_OCT S02_NOV S02_DEC PM10_JAN PM10_FEB PM10_MAR PM10_APR PM10_MAY PM10_JUN PM10_JUL PM10_AUG PM10_SEP PM10_OCT PM10_NOV PM10_DEC PM25_JAN PM25_FEB PM25_MAR PM25_APR PM25_MAY PM25_JUN PM25_JUL PM25_AUG PM25_SEP PM25_OCT PM25_NOV Type N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Decimals 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Description Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly CO Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SO2 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM10 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) VI-29 ------- Table VI-20 (continued) Variable PM25_DEC SOA_JAN SOA_FEB SOA_MAR SOA_APR SOA_MAY SOA_JUN SOA_JUL SOA_AUG SOA_SEP SOA_OCT SOA_NOV SOA_DEC NH3_JAN NH3_FEB NH3_MAR NH3_APR NH3_MAY NH3_JUN NH3_JUL NH3_AUG NH3_SEP NH3_OCT NH3_NOV NH3 DEC Type N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Decimals 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Description Monthly PM25 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly SOA Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) Monthly NH3 Emissions (tons per month) VI-30 ------- Table VI-21 Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source Mass Emissions Data Files Variable FIPSST FIPSCNTY sec VOC_ANN NOX_ANN CO_ANN S02_ANN PM10_ANN PM25_ANN NH3_ANN SOA_ANN VOC_OSD NOX_OSD CO_OSD S02_OSD PM10_OSD PM25_OSD NH3_OSD SOAJDSD VMT_ANN Type C C C N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Length 2 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 Decimals 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 7 Description FIPS State code FIPS county code Source Category Classification Code Annual VOC emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Annual NOX emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Annual CO emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Annual SO2 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Annual PM10 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Annual PM25 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Annual NH3 emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Annual SOA emissions from highway vehicles (tons per year) Summer season day VOC emissions from highway vehicles [tons per day (tpd)] Summer season day NOX emissions from highway vehicles (tpd) Summer season day CO emissions from highway vehicles (tpd) Summer season day SO2 emissions from highway vehicles (tpd) Summer season day PM10 emissions from highway vehicles (tpd) Summer season day PM25 emissions from highway vehicles (tpd) Summer season day NH3 emissions from highway vehicles (tpd) Summer season day SOA emissions from highway vehicles (tpd) Annual VMT from highway vehicles using 8 vehicle types (million miles) VI-31 ------- CHAPTER VII EMISSION SUMMARIES AND COMPARISONS Please note that, in this Chapter, "national" means "48-State" (contiguous United States). As noted in Chapter I, inventories were prepared for 50-States for mobile and nonroad sources, but the summaries have been prepared only for the contiguous 48 States. Tables VII-1 through VII-10 present summaries of annual national emissions and emissions reductions by pollutant and source category as defined by the Tier 2-level emission summary for the 1996, 2007, 2020, and 2030 inventories. Table VII-1 summarizes national annual emissions for the 1996 Base Year inventory. Table VII-2 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2007 Base Case inventory, Table VII-3 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2007 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-4 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2007 Control Case relative to the 2007 Base Case. Table VII-5 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2020 Base Case inventory, Table VII-6 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2020 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-7 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2020 Control Case relative to the 2020 Base Case. Table VII-8 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2030 Base Case inventory, Table VII-9 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2030 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-10 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2030 Control Case relative to the 2030 Base Case. Tables VII-11 through VII-20 present summaries of annual emissions and emissions reductions by State and pollutant for each of the major source categories (i.e., stationary area, nonroad, EGU, non-EGU point, and on-highway mobile sources). Table VII-11 summarizes annual emissions for the 1996 Base Year inventory. Table VII-12 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2007 Base Case inventory, Table VII-13 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2007 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-14 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2007 Control Case relative to the 2007 Base Case. Table VD-15 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2020 Base Case inventory, Table VII-16 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2020 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-17 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2020 Control Case relative to the 2030 Base Case. Table VII-18 summarizes national annual emissions for the 2030 Base Case inventory, Table VII-19 summarizes national annual emissions for mobile and nonroad sources for the 2030 Control Case inventory, and Table VII-20 summarizes the mobile and nonroad emissions reductions associated with the 2030 Control Case relative to the 2030 Base Case. vn-i ------- Table VII-21 summarizes the total annual emissions in each of the years and cases for all eight pollutants. Table VII-21 also shows the percent change in emissions between the Base and Control Case inventories for 2007, 2020, and 2030. For the Tier 2-level summary tables presented in Tables VII-1 through VII-10 (excluding the tables showing emissions reductions), biogenic emissions for NH3 are shown because these emissions are included in the area source inventories prepared under this project. Biogenic VOC emissions are not shown in these tables because they are prepared separately by EPA for input to the modeling analyses. For the off-highway Tier 1 category shown in Tables VII-1 through VII-10 (excluding the tables showing emissions reductions), total off-highway emissions do not match the totals shown for nonroad emissions by State presented in Tables VII-11 through VII-20 (excluding the tables showing emissions reductions). This is because the emissions for four SCC's are included in the tables that summarize emissions by State, but do not fall under the off-highway Tier 1 category shown in Tables VIE-1 through VII-10 (excluding the tables showing emissions reductions). The SCCs, their descriptions, and the Tier 1 and 2 categories to which they are assigned are as follows: Tier 1 Category = Miscellaneous Tier 2 Category = Fugitive Dust SCC = 2275085000: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Unpaved Airstrips Tier 1 Category = Storage and Transportation Tier 2 Category = Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage SCC = 2275900000: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Refueling; All fuels; All processes SCC = 2275900101: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Refueling; All fuels; Displacement Loss/Uncontrolled SCC = 2275900102: Mobile Sources; Aircraft; Refueling; All fuels; Displacement Loss/Controlled The remainder of this chapter presents pollutant density maps for the 48-contiguous States and the District of Columbia. The density maps are in units of annual tons of pollutant emissions per square mile. For the 1996 Base Year and the 2007, 2020, and 2030 Base Case inventories, separate maps are presented by pollutant in the following order: VOC, NOX, CO, SOA, SO2, PM10, PM2 5, and NH3. For the 2007, 2020, and 2030 Control Case inventories, separate density maps are provided to show mobile and nonroad source emissions reductions for NOX, SO2, and PM25. Figures VII-1 through VII-8 present the maps for the 1996 Base Year inventory. For 2007, Figures VH-9 through VII-16 present the maps for the Base Case inventory, and Figures VII-17 through VII-19 present maps of the emissions reductions associated with the 2007 Control Case versus the 2007 Base Case inventory. For 2020, Figures VII-20 through VII-27 present the maps for the Base Case inventory, and Figures VII-28 through VII-30 present maps of the emissions reductions associated with the 2020 Control Case versus the 2020 Base Case inventory. For 2030, Figures VII-31 through VD-38 present the maps for the Base Case inventory, and Figures VD-39 through VD-41 present maps of the emissions reductions associated with the 2030 Control Case versus the 2030 Base Case inventory. vn-2 ------- CHAPTER VIM REFERENCES AAMA, 1996: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, "Fuel Volatility Survey 1996," Washington, DC, 1996. BEA, 1995: Bureau of Economic Analysis, "Regional State Projections of Economic Activity and Population to 2045," U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, July 1995. BOC, 1992: Bureau of the Census, "1990 Census of Population, Volume 1 Characteristics of Population, Chapter B Number of Inhabitants," U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC, July 1992. DOE, 1998: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Information Administration, "Annual Energy Outlook 1999, with Projections through 2020," DOE/EIA-0383(99). December 1998. EIA, 1996: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales," Washington, DC, DOE/EIA-0380. 1996. EPA, 1991: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, "Procedures for Preparing Emissions Projections," Research Triangle Park, NC, EPA-450/4-91-019. July 1991. EPA, 1997: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, "Locomotive Emission Standards - Regulatory Support Document (RSD)," Ann Arbor, MI. April 1997. EPA, 1998a: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Assessment and Modeling Division, "Exhaust Emission Factors for Nonroad Engine Modeling - Compression Ignition," Report No. NR-009A, Ann Arbor MI. June 1998. EPA, 1998b: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, "National Air Pollutant Emission Trends Procedures Document, 1900-1996," EPA-454/R-98-008, Research Triangle Park, NC, May 1998. EPA, 1999a: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Assessment and Modeling Division, "Exhaust Emission Factors for Nonroad Engine Modeling - Spark Ignition," Report No. NR-OlOb, EPA420-R-99-009, Ann Arbor MI. March 1999. vm-i ------- REFERENCES (continued) EPA, 1999b: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards, "Procedures Document for National Emissions Inventory, Volume I: Criteria Air Pollutants 1900-1999," Research Triangle Park, NC. September 2000. EPA, 1999c: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality, Planning and Standards, "Procedures for Developing Base Year and Future Year Mass and Modeling Inventories for the Tier 2 Final Rulemaking," EPA420-R-99-034, Research Triangle Park, NC. September 1999. EPA, 2000a: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, "National Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900-1998," EPA-454/R-00-002, Research Triangle Park, NC. March 2000. EPA, 2000b: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Changes to the NONROAD model for the April 2000 Version Used in Support of the 2007 Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Rule," EPA Memorandum from the Nonroad Engine Emissions Modeling Team to Docket A-99-06. May 31,2000. FAA, 1998a: Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, "FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years, 1998-2009." March 1998. FAA, 1998b: Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, "Long Range Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2010, 2015, and 2020," FAA-APO-98-9. June 1998. FHWA, 1990: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, "Highway Performance Monitoring System Field Manual," Washington, DC. December 1990. FHWA, 1997: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1996 Highway Statistics, Office of Highway Information Management, Washington, DC, 1997 (http://fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/1996/index.html). Grosjean, D. and J.H. Seinfeld, 1989: "Parameterization of the Formation Potential of Secondary Organic Aerosols," Atmospheric Environment, Volume 23, No. 8, pp. 1733-1747. 1989. Harvey, 1983: Craig A. Harvey, Robert J. Garbe, Thomas M. Baines, Joseph H. Somers, Karl H. Hellman, and Penny M. Carey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "A Study of the Potential Impact of Some Unregulated Motor Vehicle Emissions," SAE Technical Paper Series 830987, presented at the Passenger Car Meeting, Dearborn, Michigan. June 6-9, 1983. vm-2 ------- REFERENCES (continued) Pechan-Avanti, 1997a: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) Emissions Inventory Development Report, Volume HI: Projections and Controls," draft prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. June 1997. Pechan-Avanti, 1997b: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "2010 Clean Air Act Amendment Baseline Emission Projections for the Integrated Ozone, Particulate Matter, and Regional Haze Cost Analysis," prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. July 17, 1997. Pechan-Avanti, 1998: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "Emission Projections for the Clean Air Act Section 812 Prospective Analysis," prepared for Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, MA. June 1998. Pechan-Avanti, 2000: The Pechan-Avanti Group, "Development of National Emission Trends (NET) Data for F Y2000, Technical Memorandum, Task 2, Development of Quality Assurance (QA) Plan," prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Emission Factors and Inventory Group, Research Triangle Park, NC. March 2000. EPA Contract Number 68-D7-0067; Work Assignment Number 3- 12. Stella, 1999: Gregory Stella, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Emission Factors and Inventory Group, e-mail transmission to Erica Laich, The Pechan-Avanti Group, providing information on monthly percentage profiles by State, prime mover, and fuel for use in developing June and August daily heat input and emissions to EGU inventory. July 21, 1999. Stella, 2000: Greg Stella, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Emission Factors and Inventory Group, e-mail transmission to Frank Divita, The Pechan-Avanti Group, providing ranges for stack flow rate, temperature, diameter, height, and velocity to identify values outside of ranges for correcting stack parameter values in point source inventory. May 9, 2000. Somers, 1997a: Joseph Somers, Office of Mobile Sources, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Major Modeling Elements for Operating I/M Programs,," table provided to E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc., July 10, 1997. Somers, 1997b: Joseph Somers, Office of Mobile Sources, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "State Winter Oxygenated Fuel Programs," table provided to E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. February 25, 1997. vm-3 ------- REFERENCES (continued) USD A, 1997: U.S. Department of Agriculture, "1997 Census of Agriculture Geographic Area Series, Volume 1, 1A, IB, 1C; CD ROM Set." Issued June 1999. AC97-CD-VOL1-1A, IB, and 1C. USD A, 1998: U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board, Office of the Chief Economist, "USDA - Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2007," Staff Report No. WOAB-98-1. 1998. USDA, 2000a: U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, "Published Estimates Data Base," located at www.nass.usda.gov:81/idepb. USDA, 2000b: U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board, "USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2009," Staff Report No. WAOB-2000-1. February 2000. vm-4 ------- |