United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Transportation EPA420-R-05-006
and Air Quality June 2005
In-Use Testing Program for
Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines
and Vehicles
Technical Support Document
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EPA420-R-05-006
June2005
for
Assessment and Standards Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1: Economic Assessment 1
1.1 Overview 1
1.2 Cost Components 2
1.2.1 Fixed Costs 2
1.2.2 Variable Costs 3
1.2.2.1 General Description of Testing Scenario 4
1.2.2.2 Variable Cost Per Test 6
1.2.2.2.1 Direct Labor 6
1.2.2.2.2 Labor Overhead 7
1.2.2.2.3 Other Direct Costs 7
1.2.2.2.4 Repeat Tests 7
1.2.2.2.4 General and Administrative Overhead 8
1.2.2.2.5 Summary of Variable Cost per Test 8
1.2.2.3 Variable Cost Per Engine Family 8
1.2.2.3.1 Vehicle Incentives 8
1.2.2.3.2 Direct Labor 8
1.2.2.3.3 Travel 9
1.2.2.3.4 Labor Overhead 10
1.2.2.3.5 General and Administrative Overhead 10
1.2.2.3.6 Summary of Variable Cost per Engine Family 10
1.3 Costs of the Program 10
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1.3.1 Variable Costs by Level of Testing Intensity 11
1.3.2 Total Annual Costs by Level of Testing Intensity 11
1.3.3. Total Annual Cost Point Estimate 11
1.3.4. Total Costs Over 5 and 30 Years 12
CHAPTER 2: On-Vehicle Portable Emissions Measurement Technology Review 26
2.1 Overview 26
2.2 Measurement Technologies 26
CHAPTER 3: New In-Use Testing Instrument Measurement Allowance 34
3.1 Review of NTE zone 34
3.2 Review of existing NTE allowances 34
3.3 Review of other NTE allowances 35
3.4 Discussion of the two (2) NTE measurement allowances 36
APPENDIX A: Examples of Determining the Number of Engine Families to be Tested 38
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CHAPTER 1
Economic Assessment
This chapter contains our economic analysis of the costs associated with implementing a
manufacturer-run, in-use NTE testing program for heavy-duty diesel engines and vehicles. The
cost of the program is dependent on several key variables. One of these is the number of vehicles
tested under the Phase 1 and 2 testing schemes. This, of course, depends on how many vehicles
pass, or fail, the vehicle pass criteria at various points under the tiered testing procedures. Also
important is just how each manufacturer will chose to design and conduct the test program, how
many portable emission measurement systems (PEMS) will be purchased, and the availability of
test vehicles. Obviously, it is difficult to project these variables for an all new program.
However, based on our experience with in-use emissions testing, including the development and
use of a portable emission measurement device for compliance testing, we have identified a set
of reasonable testing scenarios that allow us to estimate the potential costs associated with the
program.
As part of the comments on the proposed rule, one manufacturer provided comment on a
number of the values and assumptions used in the analysis We have considered each of these and
revised the analysis where appropriate. In most cases these changes increased costs, leading to
what EPA believes to be a more conservative assumption. The most notable change is our
decision to eliminate scenario 1, and to assume all engine family testing events involve longer
trips and overnight travel as laid out in our original Scenario 2.
This chapter is divided into several parts. Section 1.1 contains a brief outline of the
methodology used to estimate the associated costs is presented. Section 1.2 develops the fixed
and variable cost components associated with the program. Section 1.3 summarizes the
component costs into estimates of the overall cost of the program. All costs are estimated in
Dec 2004 dollars. In most cases our estimates in 2003 were increased by 2.7 percent based on the
CPI inflator.
1.1 Overview
All costs are divided into either fixed or variable cost components. Fixed costs are associated
with the direct expense of purchasing the requisite portable emission measurement system
(PEMS) units. Variable costs depend primarily on the number of families and vehicles tested.
They include the direct costs for vehicle recruiting, labor for on-site testing, instrument
calibration and maintenance, travel, data analysis, and reporting expenses. Variable costs also
include indirect costs associated with overhead and general and administrative (G&A) expenses.
To explore the range of possible costs, we assessed a range of costs associated with different
testing intensities under Phase 1 or Phase 2 of the program (i.e., the amount or number of vehicle
tests that might occur under the two phases of testing). Finally, we combined this information to
show a range of possible costs and a single point estimate by assuming a specific mix of the
1
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above testing variables. The results are presented for all heavy-duty engine manufacturers as
annualized costs, total costs for the first five years of the program, and costs over 30 years.
1.2 Cost Components
1.2.1 Fixed Costs
Fixed costs for this program are primarily associated with buying PEMS units. Some of the
fixed cost components have significant uncertainties associated with them. Portable
measurement devices are already commercially available that can measure all the gaseous
pollutants required by the program. These systems cost approximately $70,000 per unit. The
commenter mentioned above indicated that costs were 40 percent greater, thus suggesting a cost
of about $90,000 -$100,000 for the gaseous PEMS unit.
Based on our experience and investment in developing portable particulate matter (PM)
measurement technology, we estimate that systems capable of measuring both gaseous and PM
emissions will cost an additional $30,000 per unit over our estmate for a gaseous unit alone, for a
total of about $100,000.l The commenter mentioned above indicated interactions with vendors
indicating costs 3-4 times greater than EPA's estimate for the PM unit or an additional $90,000.
EPA has elected to very conservatively estimate costs ranging from $100,000-$ 180,000. Taking
the average, we estimate the capital cost for portable measurement devices that measure both
gaseous and PM emissions is approximately $140,000 per unit.
As described in Chapter 2 of this document, we assume that engine manufacturers will
initially purchase PEMS units with the capability to measure gaseous pollutants in time to
coincide with the initiation of the pilot program during the 2005 calendar year. Add-on, modular
devices that measure PM emissions will be purchased later in 2006 as this technology becomes
available. Regardless of the purchasing strategy, we assume all equipment purchases occur at the
beginning of 2005 in order to simplify the analysis.
We estimate that portable emission measurement devices have a product life cycle of five
years for the purposes of the program. After that time they are assumed to be replaced with
brand new equipment. Also, we assume there is no salvage value for units that may remain in
service for other less rigorous or less important duties after five years, although this could occur
in some instances. Alternatively, some manufacturers may chose to replace or rebuild
component parts of a PEMS unit rather than replace the entire unit after five years. To the extent
this may occur, we assume such a maintenance strategy will cost approximately the same as the
replacement strategy. The annualized cost of a single PEMS unit can now be calculated by
using the above values and assuming a typical capital recovery rate of seven percent per annum.
The result is an annualized cost of $34,145 per unit.
1 Chapter 2 contains additional information on the status and development of portable
emission measurement systems.
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The total annualized fixed cost for the program depends on how many PEMS units each
manufacturer will purchase, the fraction of time the equipment is used for the in-use testing
program, and the number of manufacturers subject to the requirements. Each of these cost
components is addressed separately below.
We assume that each manufacturer will purchase three units. We chose this number to
illustrate the average equipment cost of the program recognizing that two units is adequate to
perform more than the needed amount of tests for even the largest manufacturer if its program is
designed so that testing can be conducted in an orderly, efficient manner. We recognize that
manufacturers with a limited number of engine families may need only one unit with a backup
unit. Manufacturers with a large number of families may prefer an additional unit for backup.
Our final assumption in estimating the total annual fixed cost of the program is that 13
engine manufacturers will participate in the program. This is the number of companies that
certified heavy-duty diesel engines in the 2005 model year. The manufacturers are shown below.
Caterpillar, Inc.
Cummins Engine Company, Inc.
DaimlerChrysler AG
John Deere, Inc
Detroit Diesel Corporation
General Engine Products
General Motos Corporation
Hino Motors, Ltd.
International Truck and Engine Corporation
Isuzu Motors Limited
Mack
Mitsubishi Motors Corporation
Volvo Powertrain Corporation.
Using the above information, the total annualized fixed cost of the program $1,331,665, as
shown in Table 1-1.
1.2.2 Variable Costs
Variable costs are grouped into two broad categories: cost per vehicle test and cost per
family. This approach allows us to more easily account for tests that must be repeated on the
same vehicle in order to obtain a valid test result. Repeat testing can occur in the laboratory due
to equipment or vehicle malfunctions, and operator error. We expect that similar problems may
occur in field testing, and assume that these issues can generally be remedied at the testing
location. Further, a vehicle may be tested a second day under the terms of the program if less
than three hours of non-idle operation are recorded during the first "shift day" of testing.
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Obviously, multiple tests on the same vehicle do not directly affect other costs associated with
testing an engine family, e.g., vehicle recruiting. Therefore, these costs are estimated separately
in our analysis.
Also, as noted earlier, many of the costs of the program vary by the relative availability of
test vehicles (i.e., how difficult it is to access, instrument, and test vehicles at a job site), and the
type and amount of travel required to conduct the test campaign (e.g., overnight versus local
travel). In order to reasonably bracket these cost elements, we constructed two testing scenarios
that differ in the above characteristics. These scenarios are based on our direct experience in
conducting in-use testing of heavy-duty trucks with portable emission measurement systems
under the 1998 consent decrees, our continued development of portable measurement systems,
and a recently awarded EPA contract to conduct a large scale, in-use testing pilot program in
Kansas City, Missouri for passenger cars (USEPA 2003). The two testing scenarios are
described in the following section by first identifying some of the key elements shared by both
scenarios and then presenting the specifics of each scenario separately.
1.2.2.1 General Description of Testing Scenarios
Our testing scenarios share a number of key assumptions which we believe provide a
reasonable representation of how manufacturers are likely to design and conduct testing under
this program. Alternatively, if an engine manufacturer decides to contract for testing services,
we expect the service provider to similarly design and conduct the testing campaign.
One of our most basic methodological assumptions is that field testing will usually consist of
a multi-day campaign where a minimum of five vehicles are tested. This number was chosen for
several reasons. First, it captures the type of back-to-back vehicle testing likely to be employed
in order to facilitate efficient testing. Second, it represents the minimum number of test vehicles
for Phase 1 testing under the program. Third, and finally, it simplifies the analysis when
evaluating the potential costs of higher testing intensities associated with the maximum number
of vehicles that may be tested under Phase 1 (10 total vehicles) and Phase 2 (20 total vehicles).
These later testing levels are simple multiples the Phase 1 minimum testing scenario, i.e., two
times or four times, respectively. Other key assumptions are described below.
- Vehicle recruiting and pre-screening of prospective test vehicles will be done by
telephone or other means prior to the test site visit.
- All portable measurement systems will be inspected and pre-calibrated at the
manufacturer's facility prior to deployment in the field.
- Field testing will be conducted by two people. One is an engineer and the other a
qualified technician. Both are capable of installing and operating the portable
measurement systems, screening vehicles for OBD trouble codes and MIL
indications, performing maintenance on the portable systems, etc. The technician is
also capable of performing all required inspections of the vehicle's mechanical,
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electrical, and emission control systems; as well as performing allowable maintenance
and the setting of adjustable engine parameters as required.
- The test engineer and technician will coordinate their activities to optimize their
productivity. For example, the engineer may acquire and enter a vehicle's history and
vital statistics into an electronic database concurrently while the technician performs
vehicle inspection and allowable maintenance.
- Test vehicles for an engine family are obtained from two independent sources, as
required by the regulation. It is assumed that the sources are located relatively close
to each other to minimize travel distances between test sites.
- The test sites are not necessarily in relatively close proximity to a manufacturer's
technical center, test center, maintenance facility, or other similar location thus
increasing personnel travel and field logistics costs.
- In many cases test vehicles will depart and not return to the same location the same
day, necessitating an overnight stay.
- Field personnel have access to the test vehicles and a service location before and after
the shift day as needed to install and remove the portable measurement devices.
Special arrangements with the vehicle owner/operator may be necessary.
- Two portable emission measurement systems will be deployed simultaneously during
a test site visit when possible, i.e., two vehicles will be tested at the same time.
- All necessary tools, spare parts, testing supplies, office supplies, etc. will be taken to
or otherwise supplied at the site of testing to avoid unnecessary delays.
It is also possible that test vehicles may be operated on multi-day driving routes, i.e., long-
haul operation. We do not think this will be a standard practice for all vehicles/engines, but may
happen for engines used in over the road trucks and buses. As alluded to above, we have
incorporated this assumption into the analysis for all families.
There are also some common on-site work activities. These categories are described below
in their approximate order of occurrence.
- Vehicle History/Documentation. Obtaining all relevant information not available
prior to the field visit or verifying the accuracy of information previously obtained.
- Vehicle Set-to-Specification. Inspecting the vehicle, performing allowable
maintenance, and setting all adjustable engine control parameters.
- PEMS Installation. Install the portable measurement system onboard the test vehicle.
Warm the instrument to operating temperature, verify proper operation, perform final
calibrations and span instruments, etc.
- PEMS Data Acquisition. Download the measurement data set; perform on-site data
verification and initial quality assurance; and record and store all other relevant test
information.
- PEMS Removal. Verify proper operation, perform post-test calibration, and remove
system from the test vehicle.
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- Miscellaneous Time. Non-routine labor for repairing or replacing parts of the
portable emission measurement systems or test vehicles, obtaining supplies not at the
test site, etc.
Now that the overall components of the testing scenarios have been identified, the specific
scenario we have analyzed will be presented. We believe this is conservative since it assumes all
families are used in overnight operation.
Limited Vehicle Access and Overnight Travel
Under this scenario, test vehicles are not readily available and the testing technician and
engineer must sometimes work around a test vehicle's normal daily work shift. This means that
the work day for the testing personnel includes the time the vehicle is being driven over its
normal work route. In these instances, we made a worst case assumption that the testing
personnel remain "idle" on the job site or that they are on the vehicle, with this time charged to
the in-use testing program. Also, the test sites are located far enough away from the
manufacturer's facility, or employees home base, that a single round trip to and from the job site
and overnight travel is required. However, the sites are still close enough to one another that
travel between the two locations is not restrictive or prohibitive.
1.2.2.2 Variable Cost Per Test
As described above, the cost to perform an individual vehicle test is based on a Phase 1
testing scheme where a minimum of five vehicles must be tested. Test costs consist of direct
labor, labor overhead, other direct costs, and general and administrative overhead. Each of these
cost components is described below.
1.2.2.2.1 Direct Labor
The cost of direct labor for each scenario is estimated by applying an hourly compensation
rate by labor category to the various activities associated with the field testing campaign. Table
1-2 display the work flow for the scenario, broken down by activity, labor type, and number of
hours spent preforming each activity. These depictions reflect the assumptions, work activities,
and optimization of the work flow as described in Section 1.2.2.1. The time spent in the various
work tasks are estimated based on EPA's direct experience in conducting in-use testing with
portable emission measurement devices and on the recently awarded Kansas City, Missouri test
program.
The test campaign is completed in five days. The lack of vehicle flexibility leads to long
work days in this scenario. The total direct labor is 55 and 56 hours for the engineer and
technician, respectively.
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We developed an hourly estimate of employee compensation from information published by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Compensation and Working Conditions, Employer
Costs for Employee Compensation (BLS 2003). When increased by the CPI, Table 1-3 shows
our estimate of $32 and $29 per hour for an engineer and technician, respectively. These hourly
compensation rates are "total compensation," and include wages and salaries, paid leave,
supplemental pay, and insurance. By comparison, these labor rates compare well with the
contract labor costs we incur in conducting our in-use testing under the consent decrees. Finally,
we assume that labor exceeding 40 hours per week is paid as overtime, i.e., 1.5 times the normal
hourly rate.
For convenience, Table 1-3 also shows an hourly compensation rate for a manager using the
same literature source as described above. This labor category will be used in Section 1.2.2.3,
where variable costs are discussed.
The resulting direct labor cost per test can now be calculated based on the above labor hours
and hourly compensation rates. As shown in Table 1-4, the resulting per test cost is $773.
1.2.2.2.2 Labor Overhead
We assume that all direct labor is burdened at 100 percent of the total compensation rate. For
simplicity, overtime pay is also burdened at this same overhead rate.
1.2.2.2.3 Other Direct Costs
A number of other costs not related to labor that are "consumed" during in-use testing include
office supplies, DVDs, calibration gases, and fuel for the flame ionization detector (FID). Based
on our experience with using portable measurement systems, we estimate that calibration gases
will cost about $75 per test and all other supplies will cost about $25 per test. Therefore, we
estimate that a total of $100 per test for other direct costs.
1.2.2.2.4 Repeat Tests
Some in-use tests will be voided due to operator error and test equipment malfunctions.
Other tests will be repeated if less than three hours of non-idle vehicle operation are recorded
during the first day of testing. At our National Vehicle Fuel and Emissions Laboratory in Ann
Arbor, Michigan, we experienced a test void rate for laboratory-based, non-research testing of
approximately four percent over the last two years. We expect a somewhat higher void rate for
field testing. Also, as noted, some tests will be repeated do to the three hour non-idle
requirement. Overall, we assume a combined repeat test rate of 10 percent for this analysis.
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1.2.2.2.5 General and Administrative Overhead
Certain costs are incurred for common or joint objectives and therefore cannot be
identified specifically with a particular project or activity. We assume these general and
administrative costs to be 6.5 percent of all other costs.
1.2.2.2.6 Summary of Variable Cost per Test
Table 1-5 summarizes the various direct cost elements described above. As shown, the
resulting total variable costs per test are $1,928.
1.2.2.3 Variable Cost Per Engine Family
As with the previous section, the cost per engine family is based on a Phase 1 testing scheme
where a minimum of five vehicles must be tested. This overall cost is composed of a number of
individual expenses such as paying the test vehicle's owner/operator an incentive, recruitment,
travel, instrument pre-calibration, data analysis, and reporting. Each of the cost elements are
described below.
1.2.2.3.1 Vehicle Incentives
We generally offer a vehicle's owner an incentive in the form of a government bond and free
vehicle repairs as part of our in-use test programs. Sometimes the owner cooperates without
such an incentive, as most often occurs in our in-use testing under the consent decrees. For the
purposes of this analysis, we assume that a cash incentive of $150 per vehicle will be paid to the
owner by the engine manufacturer. This is the average cost of the incentive, with some owners
being offered more some less, and some cooperating without an incentive. Therefore, the total
incentive for an engine family tested under the Phase 1 minimum requirements is $750.
1.2.2.3.2 Direct Labor
Each engine family will incur costs in three main labor categories: vehicle recruitment,
instrument pre-calibration, and data analysis and reporting. We expect that manufacturers will
rely heavily on their existing customer relationships to recruit appropriate test vehicles from
fleets or individual owners. Alternatively, they will create new lines of communication with their
customers. A significant amount of pre-screening and vehicle history will also be associated
with vehicle recruitment. We assume that with a heavy emphasis on existing customer
relationships and data bases, recruiting the requisite five test vehicles will average about $300 per
engine family.
Prior to being deployed in the field, each portable measurement system will be carefully
examined at the manufacturer's facility to ensure proper operation. Based on our experience
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with portable emission measurement systems, we estimate that pre-calibrating each unit will
require 0.5 and 1.5 hours of engineer and technician time, respectively. Using the total
compensation rates previously described in Tablel-4, this would cost $60 per unit. Since it is
assumed that testing will be conducted using two portable systems, the total direct labor cost for
pre-calibrating the instruments is $120 per engine family.
The last category of direct labor per engine family is primarily for final data analysis and
quality assurance (beyond that which is conducted in the field), reporting results, and archiving
information. We assume that engine manufacturers will develop a number of automated methods
to perform many of these functions to minimize labor requirements. Our direct labor estimates
are basically taken from another EPA report that was prepared to support a new pilot program
aimed at developing new in-use data collection methods for nonroad diesel-powered equipment
(USEPA 2004). That program will also collect, analyze, and report emissions data using portable
emission measurement systems. For the purposes of this analysis, we doubled the time per test
for managerial oversight, since the original estimate was developed to reflect an emission factor
style program, while the in-use program potential compliance implications.
Table 1-6 presents the estimated labor hours for each data analysis and reporting activity, the
cost per test, and the cost per engine family. The cost per test is based on a labor rate of $32 per
hour for an engineer and $48 per hour for a manager. These labor classifications and
compensation rates were previously discussed in Section 1.2.2.2 and presented in Table 1-3. The
total cost of post-data analysis and reporting is estimated to be $751 per engine family.
The resulting total direct labor for the three categories described above is $1,171 per engine
family.
1.2.2.3.3 Travel
As discussed above, we assume the test sites are located far enough away from the
manufacturer's facility, or employees home base, that a single round trip to and from the job site
and overnight travel is required. More specifically, we assume that commuting at the beginning
and end of the work week is four hours one way for a total of eight hours. Again, using the total
compensation rates previously presented in Table 1-4 of $32 and $29 per hour for an engineer
and technician, respectively, the travel-related direct labor cost with 100% overhead is $976 per
engine family.
The vehicle expenses consist of the round trip travel to the testing locations described above,
and daily travel to and from the test sites as well as itinerant travel, e.g., lunch and dinner. The
round trip travel expense associated with the eight hours of commuting time is estimated by
using an assumed average speed of 50 miles per hour and a mileage fee of $0.40 per mile. The
result is $160. The itinerant travel distances are assumed to be 30 miles for Day 1 and 45 miles
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each day for the next three days, or a total of 165 miles. Using the assumed vehicle
reimbursement fee, this amounts to $226.
This scenario requires overnight travel. There will be approximately four days of full per
diem expenses and a partial day of meals on the fifth day (Table 1-3). We assume it costs $100
per night for lodging and $40 per day for meals. This results in per diem expenses of $1200 for
the full week. Combining this with the travel-related labor of $976 nd the vehicle cost of $226
from above, the total travel cost is $2,402 per engine family.
1.2.2.3.4 Labor Overhead
We assume that all direct labor is burdened at 100 percent of the total compensation rate.
1.2.2.3.5 General and Administrative Overhead
We assume general and administrative expenses to be 6.5 percent of all other costs.
1.2.2.3.6 Summary of Variable Cost per Engine Family
Table 1-7 summarizes the various cost elements discussed above. As shown, the resulting
total variable costs per engine family are $5,851.
1.3 Costs of the Program
Now that the basic fixed and variable cost inputs have been developed, we will use that
information to identify a range of total annual costs for the program. This range reflects the
testing scenario, as described in Section 1.2.2.1, and three different levels of testing intensity that
may occur under the Phase 1 and 2 requirements, which are described below. We will also
develop a single point estimate of the program's annual cost. Finally, we will use this point
estimate to present total costs for the first five years of the program, and costs over 30 years.
These costs are presented for the entire industry.
The first level of testing intensity is the minimum number of vehicles that must be tested
under Phase 1 of the program to demonstrate if a designated engine family passes the NTE
criteria, i.e., five vehicle tests per family. This is the basis upon which the variable cost
components were developed in Section 2.1, and is referred to as Phase 1 minimum. The second
level of testing is the maximum number of vehicles that could be required under Phase 1, i.e., 10
vehicle tests per family. This is referred to as Phase 1 maximum. The third level of testing is a
worst case where a manufacturer must complete Phase 2 testing for an engine family. At its
maximum, Phase 2 requires up to 20 vehicle tests per family. This is referred to as Phase 2
maximum.
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Overall, our methodology for estimating the costs associated with the three testing levels is
simple. We assume that a manufacturer will complete each level of testing in discrete steps. For
example, after completing Phase 1 minimum, the test results for the engine family will be
thoroughly evaluated at the manufacturer's technical center. If one or more of the vehicles do not
pass the testing criteria, the manufacturer is assumed to return to the field to continue testing five
more vehicles, i.e., Phase 1 maximum. For the purposes of this analysis, this means that the
variable cost of Phase 1 maximum testing is twice the cost of performing Phase 1 minimum
testing. Similarly, the variable cost of Phase 2 maximum, i.e., 20 vehicles, is twice the cost of
Phase 1 maximum, i.e., 10 vehicles. The fixed cost of testing is constant for each of the three
testing intensities, since the cost of purchasing the portable measurement systems does not
change with the number of tests performed.
1.3.1 Variable Costs by Level of Testing Intensity
As noted above, fixed costs do not change by the number of tests performed, although
variable costs do vary by testing intensity. Therefore, the first step in estimating the range of
annual costs is to determine variable cost per family for each of the testing levels. This is
presented in Table 1-8.
The next step is to find the range of annual costs for all manufacturers, i.e., all engine
families. Under the program, we may generally select up to 25 percent of an engine
manufacturer' families for testing each year. In the 2005 model year, there were 71 heavy-duty
diesel engine families certified. Hence, we may select up to 18 engine families per year. Using
this value, the resulting range of annual costs for all manufacturers is shown in Table 1-9.
1.3.2 Total Annual Costs by Level of Testing Intensity
Table 1-10 summarizes the fixed and variable cost estimates and presents the total annual
cost for each testing level. The low end of the range is about $1.6 million per year for Phase 1
minimum, and the high end of the range is $2.1 million for Phase 2 maximum.
1.3.3. Total Annual Cost Point Estimate
Our point estimate assumes the overall program will reflect the average of weighted at 80
percent of the Phase 1 minimum average cost, 10 percent of the Phase 1 maximum average cost,
and 10 percent of the Phase 2 maximum average cost. This reflects our belief that most of the
engine families will be designed and built in full conformance with the applicable NTE
standards. But also that the program will identify some level of potential nonconformance.
Table 1-11 summarizes the Phase 1 minimum and Phase 2 maximum costs from the previous
table for convenience and presents our point estimate of the total annual cost for all
manufacturers. The point estimate is $1.68 million per year.
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1.3.4. Total Costs Over 5 and 30 Years
We developed an estimate of the total program costs over both 5 and 30 years using the
annual point estimate costs from Table 1-12 and a discount rate of seven percent per annum. As
shown, the 5 year cost is about $6.89 million and the 30 year cost is about $20.85 million.
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Chapter 1 References
1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003. Characterizing Exhaust Emissions from
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area. ERG. EPA Contract
Number GS-10F-0036K. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Assessment and Standards
Division, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Awarded February 2004.
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2003. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation-June 2003.
USDL: 03-446. U.S. Department of Labor, Washington, D.C.
3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2004. Mobile Source Emission Factors:
Populations, Usage and Emissions of Diesel Nonroad Equipment in EPA Region 7. Agency
Form Number 0619.11, Supporting Statement, Part A. Office of Transportation and Air Quality.
March 2004. EPA Edocket No. OAR-2003-0225-0003.
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Table 1-1. Total Annualized Fixed Costs1
Cost per
PEMS Unit
($)
140,000
Annualized cost
of PEMS Unit
($)
34,145
Annual Cost per
Manufacturer
($)
102,435
Number of
Manufacturers
(#)
13
Total Annual
Cost
($)
1,331,655
2004 dollars.
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Table 1-2. Limited Vehicle Access and Overnight Travel
Day 1
Activity
Travel
VI, V22
History
VI, V2 Set-
to-Spec
VI, V2
Install
Misc. Time
Totals
Hrs
4
2
2
3
1
10
10
Labor
Type
B1
E
T
B
B
T
E
Day 2
Activity
VI, V2
Warm-Up
Shift Wait
Time
V3 Set-to-
Spec
V3 History
VI, V2 Data
Acquisition
VI, V2
Remove
V3 Install
Misc. Time
Hrs
1
8
1
1
1
1.5
1.5
1
15
14
Labor
Type
T
B
T
E
B
B
B
B
T
E
Day 3
Activity
V4 Set-to-
Spec
V4 History
V4 Install
V3 Warm
Shift Wait
Time
V3, V4 Data
Acquisition
V3,V4
Remove
Misc. Time
Hrs
1
1
1.5
8
1
1.5
1
14
14
Labor
Type
T
E
B
B
B
B
B
T
E
Day 4
Activity
V5 Set-to-
Spec
V 5 History
V5 Install
Shift Wait
Time
V5 Remove
V5 Data
Acquisition
Misc. Time
Hrs
1
1
1.5
8
.75
.5
1
13
13
Labor
Type
T
E
B
B
B
B
B
T
E
Day 5
Activity
Travel
Hrs
4
4
4
Labor
Type
B
T
E
1 T=Technician, E=Engineer, B=Both
2 V = Vehicle (identifier).
15
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Table 1-3. Labor Compensation Rates
BLS Category1
Technical3
Precision Production, Craft, and
Repair4
Executive, administrative, and
managerial5
In-Use Testing Category
Engineer
Technician
Manager
Total Compensation2
($/Hour)
32
29
48
1 BLS 2003, inflated by 2.7%.
2 Total compensation includes wages and salaries, paid leave, supplemental pay, and insurance. Rounded to the nearest whole dollar. June
2003 dollars.
3 Table 11, Private industry, goods-producing and service-producing industries, by occupational group; All workers, goods-producing
industries; White-collar occupations; Professional specialty and technical.
4 Table 11, Private industry, goods-producing and service-producing industries, by occupational group; All workers, goods-producing
industries; Blue-collar occupations; Precision production, craft, and repair.
5 Table 11, Private industry, goods-producing and service-producing industries, by occupational group; All workers, goods-producing
industries; White-collar occupations; Executive, administrative, and managerial.
16
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Table 1-4. Direct Labor Costs Per Vehicle Testl
(Based on Phase 1 Minimum Five Vehicle Tests per Engine Family)2
Labor Rate
Type
Regular
Overtime2
Total
Hours Per Family (5 tests)
Engineer
40
15
—
Technician
40
16
—
Hourly Compensation
($ per hour)
Engineer
32
48
—
Technician
29
44
—
Total Cost
($/5 tests)
2440
1424
3864
Cost Per
Test
($/test)
488
285
773
1 2004 dollars.
2 Based on Phase 1 testing five vehicles.
3 Overtime paid for work exceeding 40 hours/week at 1.5 times the regular pay rate.
17
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Table 1-5. Variable Costs Per Test Vehicle1
($/test)
Scenario
Direct
Labor2
773
Labor
Overhead3
773
Other Direct
Costs4
100
Voided
Tests5
165
General and
Administrative6
118
Total
1,928
1 2004 dollars.
2 See Table 1-4.
3 100 percent of direct labor.
4 General supplies, PEMS maintenance, calibration gases, FID fuel, etc.
5 Assumes 10 percent of tests are void (i.e., 0.10 * (direct labor, labor overhead, and other direct costs)).
6 6.5 percent of all costs.
18
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1 2003 dollars.
2 See USEPA 2004.
Table 1-6. Post-Test Data Analysis and Reporting Variable Cost Per Family1
Activity
QA Measure-
ments
Load
Database
Analysis,
Write Report,
Archive
Total
Hours/Test
(hrs)2
Manager
0.056
0.056
0.056
0.168
Engineer
3.0
0.278
1.167
4.445
Cost/Test
($)
Manager
2.69
2.69
2.69
8.07
Engineer
96.00
8.90
37.34
142.24
Cost Per Engine Family
($/5 Tests)
Manager
13
13
13
40
Engineer
480
45
187
711
Total
493
58
200
751
19
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Table 1-7. Summary of Variable Costs Per Engine Family1
($/family)
Direct Labor
1,171
Labor
Overheard2
1,171
Incentive
750
Travel
2402
General and
Administrative3
357
Total
5,851
1 2004 dollars.
2 100% of direct labor.
3 6.5% of all costs.
20
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Table 1-8. Summary of Variable Costs Per Engine Family by Level of Testing Intensity1
($)
Scenario
Phase 1 Minimum2
Vehicle
Testing5
9,640
Engine
Family
5,851
Total
15,491
Phase 1 Maximum3
Vehicle
Testing5
19,280
Engine
Family
5,851
Total
25,131
Phase 2 Maximum4
Vehicle
Testing5
38,560
Engine
Family
5,851
Total
44,411
1 2004 dollars.
2 Phase 1 minimum = 5 test vehicles.
3 Phase 1 maximum = 10 test vehicles.
4 Phase 2 maximum = 20 test vehicles.
5 Cost per vehicle from Table 1-5 multiplied by the number of vehicles tested.
21
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Table 1-9. Total Annual Variable Costs for All Manufacturers by Level of Testing Intensity1
($)
Scenario
Phase 1 Minimum2
Cost
Per
Engine
Family
15,491
#
Families
Per
Year5
18
Total
278,838
Phase 1 Maximum3
Cost
Per
Engine
Family
25,131
#
Families
Per
Year
18
Total
452,358
Phase 2 Maximum4
Cost
Per
Engine
Family
44
#
Families
Per
Year
18
Total
799
1 2004 dollars.
2 Phase 1 requires that a minimum of 5 test vehicles.
3 The maximum number of vehicles tested in Phase 1 is 10.
4 The maximum number of vehicles tested through Phase 2 is 20.
5 25% of a total of 71 engine families certified in the 2005 model year.
22
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Table 1-10. Total Annual Costs for All Manufacturers by Level of Testing1
Intensity
($ Thousands)
Scenario
Phase 1 Minimum2
Fixed
Cost
1,332
Variable
Cost
279
Total
1,611
Phase 1 Maximum3
Fixed
Cost
1,332
Variable
Cost
452
Total
1,784
Phase 2 Maximum4
Fixed
Cost
1,332
Variable
Cost
799
Total
2,131
1 2004 dollars.
2 Phase 1 minimum = 5 vehicle tests
Phase 1 maximum = 10 vehicle tests.
Phase 2 maximum = 20 vehicle tests.
23
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Table 1-11. Total Annual Cost Point Estimate for All Manufacturers1
($ Thousands)
Scenario
Phase 1 Minimum
Fixed
Cost
1,332
Variable
Cost
279
Total
1,611
Phase 2 Maximum
Fixed
Cost
1,332
Variable
Cost
452
Total
1,784
Phase 2 Maximum
Fixed
Cost
1,332
Variable
Cost
799
Total
2,131
Point Estimate2
Fixed
Cost
1,332
Variable
Cost
348
Total
1,680
1 2004 dollars.
2 Assumes a 80/10/10 split between Phase 1 minimum, Phase 1 maximum, and Phase 2 maximum, respectively.
24
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Table 1-12. Total Program Cost Over 5 and 30 Years1
(Based on Point Cost Estimate)
(thousands of $)
Years
2005-2034
30 Year NPV in 2005
1st 5 YearNPVin
2005
Annualized Fixed
Costs
1332
16,530
5461
Annual Variable
Costs
348
4319
1423
Total Annual
Costs
1,680
20,849
6,888
1 2004 dollars.
25
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CHAPTER 2
On-Vehicle Portable Emissions Measurement Technology Review
2.1 Overview
With respect to measurement equipment, we already have equipment available to measure
gaseous emissions on-vehicle using the test procedures proposed for this program, and we believe
that PM emissions measurement equipment will be available as needed.
In the NTE standard we have already taken into account the variation in emissions due to
varying engine operation and ambient conditions. In addition, in this proposal, we have taken into
account the measurement tolerances of on-vehicle measurement systems.
Given the very active interest in portable measurement equipment in the rest of the industry,
and given lead time, we believe that measurement equipment will be widely available well ahead of
time so that this program will be fully implemented for all regulated emissions-including PM-by
2007 and 2008. For the 2005-2006 gaseous emission pilot program, equipment is already available
for total hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and NOx that measure emissions at the concentrations
associated with 2007 and later model year NTE standards. In 2004, units were introduced that
measure NMHC, although some extra work is being instituted to verify the accuracy and precision of
these new systems. For the 2006-2007 PM pilot program, and we also believe that PM emissions
measurement equipment will be available. This chapter discusses this measurement technology and
summarizes research results. Chapter 3 discusses the new emissions measurement allowance and
cooperative test program that will comprehensively evaluate both gaseous and PM portable
emissions measurement systems prior to the initiation of the fully enforceable in-use testing program.
2.2 Measurement Technologies
We expect that several complete systems will be commercially available in the 2005-2007
timeframe that will be capable of performing the measurements needed to determine whether or not a
vehicle passes an on-vehicle emissions test. At a minimum, any such measurement system must
include individual analyzers and sensors that can quantify the following parameters:
1. Regulated emissions concentrations in exhaust:
a. Oxides of nitrogen, NOx.
b. Carbon monoxide, CO (and carbon dioxide CO2).
c. Non-methane hydrocarbons, NMHC.
d. Particulate mass, PM.
2. Exhaust flow rate.
3. Engine operation:
a. Speed.
b. Torque.
26
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c. Coolant temperature and intake manifold temperature and pressure.
4. Ambient conditions:
a. Temperature.
b. Dewpoint.
c. Altitude.
In this section we describe the measurement technologies that we expect to be used to quantify
these parameters. If these technologies are properly applied, we believe that they are acceptable for
measuring emissions on-vehicle. Note too that we also allow for the use of alternate technologies
according to §1065.10.
1. Regulated emissions concentrations in exhaust. Emissions concentrations need to be
measured to determine brake-specific emissions.
a. NOx measurement technology. We typically accept NOx measured as the sum of NO and
NO2 since conventional engines and aftertreatment systems do not emit significant amounts of other
NOx species. NO may be measured either by a chemiluminescence detector (CLD) or a non-
dispersive ultra-violet (NDUV) detector. NO2 may be converted catalytically to NO and detected by
a CLD, or it may be detected directly via NDUV. NDUV and CLD are already available as
components of complete on-vehicle emissions measurement systems, and they already have been
performing well in on-vehicle applications. For example, a recent study by the California Air
Resources Board (CARB) indicated that for 27 heavy-duty diesel chassis dynamometer tests, an
NDUV-based on-vehicle system reported NOx emissions within 4.6 % of the current NOx standard,
as compared to laboratory measurements.(l) We are currently studying NDUV analyzer
performance with a 2002 light-heavy duty diesel (LHDD) on a chassis dynamometer. Our results so
far indicate that the NDUV-based system reported NOx within 3.1 % of our laboratory, prior to a
5000-mile cross-country road test that we conducted. After running the NDUV-based system for the
entire road test-with no failures, the vehicle was returned to the laboratory, and the NDUV-based
system reported NOx emissions within 3.9 % of our laboratory. The manufacturer of the NDUV-
based system has also indicated that several engine manufacturers have evaluated their system, and
their results from 11 HDDE FTP tests indicate Nox emissions were reported within 4.4 % of the
current standard in engine manufacturer's laboratories. (1)
b. CO (and CO2) measurement technology. Since we first regulated CO, non-dispersive infra-
red (NDIR) detector technology has been used for measuring CO and CO2 in laboratory applications.
Many laboratory NDIR analyzers have a moving part called a chopper-wheel to pulse infra-red light
through the exhaust gas sample. The pulsing light is used to alternately detect the CO and CO2
concentrations and then the dark-current of the NDIR detector. This is done to maintain accuracy, but
the moving chopper-wheel is not durable under the high vibration environment of on-vehicle testing.
However, new NDIR analyzers have been commercialized that electrically switch the infra-red light
source on and off. These new NDIR analyzers are already commercially available in complete on-
vehicle emissions measurement systems, and they have been performing well in on-vehicle
27
-------
applications. For example, a recent study by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) indicated
that for 27 heavy-duty diesel chassis dynamometer tests, an NDIR-based on-vehicle system reported
CO emissions within 0.7 % of the current CO standard (2.1 % for CO2), as compared to laboratory
measurements.(1) We are currently studying NDIR analyzer performance with a 2002 light-heavy
duty diesel (LHDD) on a chassis dynamometer. Our results so far indicate that the NDIR-based
system reported CO within 1.0 % of our laboratory (1.1 % for CO2), prior to a 5000-mile cross-
country road test that we conducted. After running the NDIR-based system for the entire road
test-with no failures, the vehicle was returned to the laboratory, and the NDIR-based system reported
CO emissions within 7.1 % of our laboratory (2.2 % of the current CO standard) and 4.7 % for CO2.
The manufacturer of the NDIR-based system has also indicated that several engine manufacturers
have evaluated their system, and their results from 11 HDDE FTP tests indicate CO emissions were
reported within 0.5 % of the current standard in engine manufacturer's laboratories (3.55 % for
CO2).(1)
c. NMHC measurement technology. The flame ionization detector (FID) has been the
measurement technology of choice for hydrocarbon measurements since the late 1950s. The FID has
been used as a detector in liquid and gas chromatography systems for individual hydrocarbon
speciation and quantification. It is used because of its response to a broad range of hydrocarbons, its
inherent stability and its remarkably linear response from very high levels to very low levels of
hydrocarbons. Because the FID responds to a very broad range of hydrocarbons, we chose to set our
initial hydrocarbon standard based on the FID response to the total hydrocarbons (THC) in engine
exhaust. Later, by allowing for the subtraction of methane (CH4) from THC, we set non-methane
hydrocarbon (NMHC) standards based on the FID's response to all non-methane hydrocarbons in
engine exhaust. Because the FID has a range of response factors for all of the hydrocarbons that it
detects, and because the mixture of hydrocarbon species in engine exhaust changes as a function of
engine operation, fuel, and aftertreatment systems, the FID's response to NMHC in engine exhaust is
characteristic to hydrocarbon measurement via FID technology alone. This makes it almost
impossible for other hydrocarbon detector technology to equivalently detect engine exhaust NMHC.
Fortunately, FIDs have been adapted for on-vehicle use. These new FID analyzers are already
commercially available in complete on-vehicle emissions measurement systems, and they have been
performing well in on-vehicle applications. For example, a recent study by the California Air
Resources Board (CARB) indicated that for 27 heavy-duty diesel chassis dynamometer tests, a FDD-
based on-vehicle system reported THC emissions within 2.8 % of the current NMHC standard, as
compared to laboratory measurements.(l) We are currently studying FID analyzer performance with
a 2002 light-heavy duty diesel (LHDD) on a chassis dynamometer. Our results so far indicate that the
FDD-based system reported THC within 7.8 % of our laboratory after running the FDD-based system
for a 5000 mile road test-with no failures, (2.4 % of the current NMHC standard). The manufacturer
of the FDD-based system has also indicated that several engine manufacturers have evaluated their
system, and their results from 11 HDDE FTP tests indicate THC emissions were reported within 1.3
% of the current NMHC standard in engine manufacturer's laboratories.(1)
28
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d. PM measurement technology. PM measurement has been traditionally conducted by
depositing diluted exhaust PM on a sample filter and then weighing the filter in a PM measurement
laboratory before and after testing to determine the net mass gain due to PM.
This technique has been applied to on-vehicle testing by one on-vehicle emissions
measurement system manufacturer. This system was tested by the California Air Resources Board
(CARB) versus a chassis dynamometer lab oratory. (2) Thirty-three tests were run on two different
heavy-duty trucks, and one of the trucks was equipped with a PM trap. The 33 emissions results
were collected over five different test cycles for each truck. For the current-technology truck, on-
average, the on-vehicle system reported PM results within 0.6 % of the standard when compared to
laboratory results. For the trap-equipped truck, on-average, the on-vehicle system reported PM
results where the difference between the on-vehicle and laboratory was 38 % of the 2007 standard.
However, because the trap-equipped truck was emitting PM at only 44 % of the 2007 standard
(according to laboratory results), the 38 % error of the on-vehicle system would not have caused any
false indication of a failure (i.e. 44 % + 38 % = 82 %). Furthermore, neither the laboratory nor the
on-vehicle system were equipped to sample PM according to our specifications for measuring PM
from engines that meet the 2007 PM standards. These specifications were tailored to reduce
variability in this type of PM measurement.
These filter-based results demonstrate that accurate on-vehicle PM measurement technology is
already commercially available for the current level of PM emissions, and it demonstrates that
proportional sampling of PM on-vehicle is commercially available today. However, we do not
expect filter-based methods to be used for conducting NTE tests in the field. This is because for
NTE testing, PM emissions must be quantified for several individual NTE events, which would
require many filters and a means to switch these filters in an automated way. No such system is
commercially available or in development to our knowledge, and we believe that such an automated
system might be cumbersome on-vehicle.
We are currently evaluating more automated technologies for quantifying PM mass on-board.
These automated technologies detect the inertia of particulate mass (PM) by accelerating it via
vibration, rather than detecting its weight due to the acceleration of Earth's gravity. These inertial
technologies include the Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM) and the Quartz Crystal
Microbalance (QCM). Since these technologies are compact, they are suitable for on-vehicle
applications. And since they impart greater acceleration upon PM versus Earth's gravity, they are
more sensitive than a laboratory microbalance. They also eliminate the need to transport PM sample
filters to a PM measurement laboratory for pre- and post-weighing. Researchers at West Virginia
University have compared QCM and TEOM technologies versus laboratory PM measurements on a
heavy-duty diesel engine, and they showed that for seven repeats of EPA's heavy-duty FTP, the
TEOM and QCM can quantify PM within 5 % of a traditional microbalance at current emissions
standards.(3)
29
-------
These results demonstrate that this automated on-vehicle PM measurement technology is
already commercially available today. However, conducting NTE tests in the field poses additional
challenges. Namely, quantification of PM over sampling intervals as short as 30 seconds has yet to
be demonstrated. Additionally, because PM equilibration is required before and after each NTE
event, the time it takes to equilibrate PM mass after an NTE event might prevent sampling all or part
of the next NTE event. Although these prototype systems are commercially available, more work is
needed to demonstrate their accuracy in the lab and in the field.
Also, we are currently investigating the sources of error in the laboratory PM measurement of
trap-equipped engines. When we initially compared the TEOM and QCM versus laboratory PM
measurements from trap-equipped engines, we discovered that the laboratory results were very
sensitive to sampling conditions. This is due to the fact that PM from a trap is mostly semi-volatile
matter, such as high-molecular weight hydrocarbons and dilute sulfuric acid. These PM constituents
can exist either as a gas or as PM, depending upon dilution conditions, pressures, temperatures, and
PM collection media. It is important to note that the TEOM uses a different type of media than the
lab, and the QCM uses a platinum substrate to collect PM. Within our current specifications for
sampling post-trap PM, two different acceptable laboratory filter media give results where one is
four times that of the other.(4) We believe that this difference is from a combination of gaseous
hydrocarbons adsorbing onto one filter, while PM hydrocarbons are stripped off of the other filter.
We are currently supporting a Coordinating Research Council study to resolve these laboratory PM
measurement issues, and we expect that results from this study, which should be available before the
end of 2004, will allow us to more accurately compare the TEOM and QCM to laboratory
measurements of trap-equipped diesels. Based on the results of this study, we will select a single
filter material specification for laboratory PM measurement. We expect that such a specification will
resolve most of the current issues with post-trap PM measurement in the laboratory. Furthermore,
based on this study, we will likely specify an on-vehicle PM sampling dilution rate and ratio, along
with the on-vehicle equilibration pressure, temperature and humidity for PM samples. By specifying
these sampling conditions, we can help assure that PM measurement on-vehicle will be sufficiently
equivalent to laboratory PM measurements-even at our most stringent PM standard.
2. Exhaust flow rate. In a CVS laboratory the entire volume of engine exhaust is diluted and
then measured. Since this is impractical for on-vehicle emissions measurement, the raw exhaust
flow rate must be measured. We are aware of four commercially available technologies for on-
vehicle exhaust flow measurement. One has been developed and patented by us, and it is based on
an averaging Pitot tube (Patent No. 6,148,656). This technology is commercially available because
we have licensed the technology to two on-vehicle emissions measurement system manufacturers.
Another technology uses a hot-wire anemometer to measure the flow of ambient air induced by a
sub-sonic venturi placed in the raw exhaust. A third technology uses a heated hot-wire anemometer
directly in the exhaust. A fourth technology measures a known proportion of raw exhaust flow via
the laboratory CVS technique. It's proportionality is maintained with the total raw exhaust flow by
balancing certain partial flow pressures with the exhaust tailpipe and ambient pressures. All of these
techniques have been demonstrated to be within 5 % of the true exhaust flow, and two of these
30
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techniques were used to measure the flows required to achieve the gaseous and PM measurement
results indicated in the previous section (1,3).
3. Engine operation. Certain engine parameters are required to calculate emissions or to
determine whether or not an engine is operating in the NTE zone. Other parameters are used to
determine if an EGR-equipped engine is sufficiently warmed-up for NTE testing. These parameters
may be measured directly using the technologies described below. However, if the engine
manufacturer determines that an engine's Electronic Control Module (ECM) accurately quantifies
these parameters, the manufacturer may rely on ECM values for these parameters.
a. Speed. Engine crankshaft speed is required to determine whether or not an engine is
operating within the NTE zone. Engine speed also may be used to determine engine power for
emissions calculations. We have used magnetic flux detectors attached to the housing of an engine's
belt-driven alternator to measure engine speed. Other on-vehicle emissions measurement system
manufacturers detect alternator voltage ripple frequency. These signals are calibrated to actual
engine speed during each engine installation with a portable reference tachometer.
b. Torque. Engine torque is required to determine whether or not an engine is operating within
the NTE zone. Engine torque also may be used to determine engine power for emissions
calculations. Engine torque may be measured directly by installing and calibrating a strain gage on
the drive shaft. We also allow torque determination using fuel flow, as calculated via carbon-
balance, in combination with engine speed and an estimated brake-specific fuel consumption. For
details, refer to §1065.650, which is being revised in a companion final rule to this notice.
c. Coolant temperature, intake manifold temperature, and intake manifold pressure. These
three parameters are used to determine whether or not an EGR-equipped engine is sufficiently
warmed-up for NTE testing. These can be measured with standard thermocouples and automotive
pressure transducers, which can be mounted into coolant and intake system caps or plugs.
4. Ambient conditions. Ambient conditions are used to calculate emissions or to determine if
ambient conditions are within limits for NTE testing. These parameters may be measured directly
using the technologies described below, or if the engine manufacturer determines that an engine's
Electronic Control Module (ECM) accurately quantifies these parameters, the manufacturer may rely
on ECM values for these parameters.
a. Temperature. We have used thermistor-based and thermocouple-based ambient temperature
sensors for this purpose. Either technology is sufficient for this temperature measurement. These
sensors are rugged because they are commonly used in remote weather station applications, however
these sensors must be shielded from heat from the sun and heat from the engine to achieve accurate
ambient temperature readings.
-------
b. Dewpoint. We have used thin-film capacitor-based ambient dewpoint sensors for this
purpose. This technology is sufficient for this dewpoint measurement. These sensors are rugged
because they are commonly used in remote weather station applications.
c. Altitude. We have used Global Positioning System (GPS) technology to measure altitude.
We have used this technology cross-country as part of a complete on-vehicle emissions measurement
system, and it measured altitude accurately.
32
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Chapter 2 References
1. "On the Road to Clear Skies: Semtech-D For On-highway Heavy-duty Diesel Applications."
SAE Government/Industry Meeting May 13, 2003, Andrew Reading, Sensors Incorporated.
2. "Validation of the RAVEM Ride-along Vehicle Emissions Measurement System.", Final
Report June 19, 2001, Christopher Weaver, Engine, Fuels, and Emissions Engineering.
3. "Evaluation of TEOM and QCM Technology for Particulate Mass Measurement", ETH
Conference on Nanoparticle Measurement, Zurich, August 2001, David Booker, Mridul Gautam,
West Virginia University.
4. "Particulate Mass Measurements of Heavy-duty Diesel Engine Exhaust Using 2007 CVS
PM Sampling Parallel to QCM and TEOM.", Final Report No. 08.06129 September 30, 2003, Imad
A. Khalek, Ph.D., Southwest Research Institute.
33
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CHAPTER 3
New In-Use Testing Instrument Measurement Allowance
Before discussing the basis for the new measurement allowances for on-vehicle emissions
measurements, it is instructive to review the restricted engine operation that the NTE zone covers,
the list of other NTE allowances that we already have finalized, and other allowances that we
propose elsewhere in this notice.
3.1 Review of NTE zone
On October 6, 2000 we published Not-To-Exceed (NTE) rules and regulations for heavy-duty
diesel engines (65 Fed. Reg. 59895); effective for engines starting with model year 2007. NTE
provisions were also incorporated into the regulations promulgated shortly thereafter requiring
further reductions in emissions from heavy duty engines (66 Fed. Reg. 5001 January 18, 2001).
Briefly, the NTE provisions specify brake-specific averaging periods as short as 30 seconds, and
under these provisions testing is restricted to a limited region of engine operation. Namely, when all
of the following conditions are simultaneously met for at least 30 seconds, an NTE event is
generated. Note however, that if an aftertreatment system were to regenerate during this time, the
minimum time under which all of these conditions must be met would increase to at least twice the
regeneration interval:
1. Engine speed must be greater than 15% above idle speed.
2. Engine torque must be greater than or equal to 30% of maximum torque.
3. Engine power must be greater than or equal to 30% of maximum power.
4. Vehicle altitude must be less than or equal to 5500 feet.
5. Ambient temperature must be less than or equal to 100 degrees F at sea level to 86 degrees F
at 5500 feet.
6. Brake-specific fuel consumption (BSFC) must be less than or equal to 105 % of the
minimum BSFC if an engine is not coupled to a multi-speed manual or automatic transmission.
7. Engine operation must be outside of any manufacturer petitioned exclusion zone.
8. Engine operation must be outside of any NTE region in which a manufacturer states that less
than 5% of in-use time will be spent.
9. For EGR-equipped engines, the intake manifold temperature must be greater than or equal to
86-1 OOF, depending upon intake manifold pressure.
10. For EGR-equipped engines, the engine coolant temperature must be greater than or equal to
125-140 degrees F, depending on intake manifold pressure.
11. Engine aftertreatment systems' temperature must be greater than or equal to 250 degrees C.
3.2 Review of existing NTE allowances
As part of these rules, we also finalized several compliance allowances with respect to meeting
the Not-To-Exceed (NTE) standard. At that time we did not finalize any NTE allowances that were
34
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to specifically account for any differences between the quality of laboratory measurements and on-
vehicle measurements. Note that we did finalize the following NTE allowances:
1. We allowed for the use of the family emissions limit (FEL) to which an engine was
certified, rather than using actual emissions standard as the NTE standard. This allowance accounts
for any differences in the engine's certified emissions and the actual emissions standard when
comparing on-vehicle emissions to laboratory certified emissions.
2. We allowed for NTE multipliers of 1.25x and 1.5x times the engine's certified emissions,
depending upon the level of the engine's certified emissions compared to the standard. This
multiplier allowance accounts for any differences in engine operation and/or ambient conditions
when comparing on-vehicle emissions to laboratory certified emissions.
3. We allowed for rounding of the compliance limit after multiplying the engine's certified
emissions by 1.25x or 1.5x. Therefore, when an engine is certified at 0.01 g/hp-hr PM, this rounding
effectively increases the 1.5x multiplier to 2.Ox. This allowance creates an NTE compliance limit
with the same number of significant figures as the emissions standard. This allows for a pass/fail
determination with the same number significant figures when comparing on-vehicle emissions to
laboratory certified emissions.
4. For NOx emissions, we allowed an additive allowance of 0.10, 0.15, or 0.20 g/hp-hr, based
on an engine's model year, its certified emissions, and vehicle accumulated mileage. This additive
allowance accounts for any differences in the performance of the first an in-use-aged NOx emissions
control systems (including the engine and aftertreatment systems) when comparing their on-vehicle
emissions to laboratory certified emissions.
5. For PM emissions, we allowed an additive allowance of 0.01 g/hp-hr, based on an engine's
model year and its certified emissions. This additive allowance accounts for any differences in the
performance of the first an in-use-aged PM emissions control systems (including the engine and
aftertreatment systems) when comparing their on-vehicle emissions to laboratory certified emissions.
3.3 Review of other NTE allowances
As discussed elsewhere in this notice we also proposed additional NTE allowances for
demonstrating compliance with this program. These allowances are based upon our settlement
agreement with engine manufacturers. These include the following allowances:
1. We are allowing vehicles to meet the vehicle pass criteria for this program even though up
to 10 % of the time-weighted NTE events exceed the applicable NTE threshold. For model years
2007 through 2009, however, none of these NTE exceedances can be greater than to 2x the NTE
threshold. In the case of NOx emissions certified at or below 0.50 g/hp-hr-for model years 2007
35
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through 2009, we are allowing these NTE exceedances to occur up to a threshold of 2.00 g/hp-hr.
After model year 2009, there will be no upper limit to these individual NTE exceedances.
2. Elsewhere in this notice we are proposing that we would not require further testing of an
engine family under this program even though a fraction of engines within that engine family failed
to meet the vehicle pass criteria - even after applying all of the allowances discussed above.
3.4 Discussion of NTE measurement allowances
We have agreed to work co-operatively with engine manufacturers and the California Air
Resources Board on a test plan to determine data-driven measurement allowances. The experimental
methods and procedures specified in the test plan for determining, modeling, and comparing each of
the various components of measurement error are designed to generate statistically robust
data-driven measurement allowances for each of the gaseous emissions, namely NOx, NMHC, and
CO. We have also agreed to develop a similar cooperative test plan for the determination of a PM
measurement allowance.
As detailed in the gaseous emissions test plan, which is contained in the record for this
rulemaking, we have an agreement with engine manufacturers and the California Air Resources
Board on what components of measurement error are intended to be covered by the measurement
allowances. Agreed upon sources of error include differences in emissions concentration
measurements, differences in exhaust flow measurements, differences in PEMS environmental
conditions, and differences in torque measurement versus inference of engine torque based on
electronic control module (ECM) signals. We have agreed upon exploring the following
environmental conditions effects on PEMS: ambient temperature and pressure, shock and vibration,
electromagnetic radiation, and ambient hydrocarbons. We have also agreed that the test plan will
comprehensively explore the sources of error that might arise because torque is not measured in-use,
but rather it will be inferred from other signals from an engine's ECM. Specifically, lab measured
torque versus ECM-derived torque will be compared over the following different conditions:
different engine speeds and torques, different ambient pressures, temperatures, and humidities,
different intake air and exhaust restrictions, and different charge air cooler temperatures.
Furthermore, engine manufacturers are allowed to submit supplemental information regarding the
effects of non-deficiency AECDs on the accuracy and precision of ECM-derived torque.
The test plan's measurement allowances will be calculated in a manner that subtracts lab error
from PEMS error. Specifically, the lab error associated with measuring heavy-duty engine emissions
at stabilized steady-state test points within the NTE zone, sampled over 30-second durations utilizing
Part 1065 compliant laboratory emissions measurement systems and procedures will be subtracted
from the PEMS error associated with measuring heavy-duty engine emissions utilizing PEMS over
30-second transient NTE sampling events under a broad range of ambient and environmental
conditions. This subtraction will yield "PEMS minus laboratory" measurement allowances.
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The error model developed in the test plan will not subtract any laboratory accuracy or
precision determined from laboratory measurements of transient 30-second NTE events. However,
such transient 30-second NTE data will be collected by laboratory measurement instruments during
testing. Based on comments we received regarding the ability to conduct NTE testing in a
laboratory, this data will be analyzed to determine whether or not we are correct in our belief that
Part 1065-compliant engine dynamometer laboratories can accurately and precisely measure transient
NTE events as short as 30 seconds. If not, we have agreed with engine manufacturers and the
California Air Resources Board on a separate process to address this situation, should it arise. If
results show that the lab 95th percentile transient 30-second NTE error is greater than the lab 99th
percentile steady-state 30-second NTE error, then EPA, CARB, and EMA would agree to the
following:
a. EMA will work with EPA and CARB to optimize laboratory NTE measurement specifications
and procedures. This work will primarily be in the form of participating in and supporting joint
laboratory NTE test procedure development efforts and meetings.
b. EPA would intend to issue a guidance document and/or propose changes to Part 1065 to reflect
any optimized specifications and procedures for laboratory NTE testing as a result of those efforts and
meetings no later than the end of calendar year 2008.
We are confident that based on the results of the test plan, we will be able to determine emissions-
specific, brake-specific, additive, data-driven measurement allowances for NOX, NMHC, and CO with
sufficient lead-time for engine manufacturers to prepare for the 2007 fully enforceable program for
gaseous emissions.
As noted above, we intend to develop a similar test plan for determining a PM measurement
allowance, and we are confident that we will be able to determine data-driven measurement allowances
for PM with sufficient lead-time for engine manufacturers to prepare for the 2008 fully enforceable
program for PM emissions.
For measurement allowances in the interim before the test plans are completed, we have finalized
generous emissions-specific, brake-specific, additive measurement margins. Based on the correlation
studies detailed in the previous section of this document, we believe that these interim measurement
allowances provide considerable margin for error based on the existing information on the accuracy of
existing PEMS units.
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APPENDIX A: Examples of Determining the Number of Engine Families to be
Tested
This appendix contains a few examples showing how many engine families EPA may designate
for testing each year under the in-use, manufacturer-run program. More specifically, they illustrate
how we would calculate the maximum annual number of engine families for more complex cases
where the four-year average annual cap and 25 percent per year limit might apply to a manufacturer
with four or more engine families, all of which have annual production volumes more than 1,500
units.
The multi-step methodology is identical regardless of number of engine families a
manufacturer has in these cases. The steps are discussed below and illustrated in Tables A-l through
A-3.
Step 1. For the calendar year in which we are testing (the evaluation year), identify the number
of engine families produced in the model year corresponding to that calendar year and each of
the three preceding model years.
Step 2. Divide by 4 the number of engine families produced in the model year corresponding
to the evaluation year and round the result to the nearest whole number using the rounding
convention specified by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST 1995).2 The
result is the 25percent annual limit on the number of engine families that potentially may be
designated for testing in the evaluation year.
Step 3. Sum the engine families identified in Step 1 to determine the total four-year engine
family production.
Step 4. Divide by 4 the total four-year engine family production from Step 3 and round the
result to the nearest whole number using the rounding convention specified by the National
Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST 1995). The result is the four-year average cap on
the number of engine families that may be designated for testing in the evaluation year.
Step 5. Subtract the number of engine families we have required to be tested under this
program over the past three years from the four-year average cap. The result is the four-year
average annual cap.
2 Under the rounding convention contained in this reference, when the first digit discarded
is exactly five, the last digit retained should be rounded upward if it is an odd number, but no
adjustment made if it is an even number.
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Step 6. Select the lower of the rounded four-year average annual cap from Step 5 and the
rounded 25percent annual limit from Step 2. The result is the maximum number of engine
families that may be designated for testing in the evaluation year.
As noted, Tables A-l through A-4 illustrate the procedure described above. They also show
that the actual number of engines which may be designated in any year never exceeds the four-year
average annual cap, and may be less for some years, especially for the initial model year of testing,
i.e., 2007.
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Table A-l. Example of Engine Family Selection for One or Two Families Per Year
Inputs
Model Year
# Certified Families
4-Year Total Families (3
preceding years + current
year)
4-Year Ave. Cap (simple)
4-Year Ave. Cap (NIST
811 rounded)
25% Annual Family Limit
(simple)
25% Annual Family Limit
(NIST 811 rounded)
04
1
05
1
06
1
07
1
4
1.00
1
0.25
0.0
08
1
4
1.00
1
0.25
0.0
09
1
4
1.00
1
0.25
0.0
10
2
5
1.25
1
0.25
0.0
11
2
6
1.5
2
0.50
0.0
12
2
7
1.75
2
0.50
0.0
13
2
8
2.00
2
0.50
0.0
14
2
8
2.00
2
0.50
0.0
15
2
8
2.00
2
0.50
0.0
Calculations
4 -Year Ave. Cap (from
above)
25% Annual Family Limit
(from above)
# Tests Allowed/Year
(4 Year Cap Applied?)
#Tested/4 -Year Ave.
Annual Cap
(% Tested)
1
0.0
1
(no)
1/1
(100)
1
0.0
0
(yes)
1/1
(100)
1
0.0
0
(yes)
1/1
(100)
1
0.0
0
(yes)
1/1
(100)
2
0.0
2*
(no)
2/2
(100)
2
0.0
0*
(yes)
2/2
(100)
2
0.0
0*
(yes)
2/2
(100)
2
0.0
0*
(yes)
2/2
(100)
2
0.0
2
(no)
2/2
(100)
* Alternatively, one family could have been tested in any two of the four years shown.
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Table A-2. Example of Engine Family Selection for Six or Seven Families Per Year
Inputs
Model Year
# Certified Families
4-Year Total Families (3
preceding years + current
year)
4-Year Ave. Cap (simple)
4-Year Ave. Cap (NIST
811 rounded)
25% Annual Family Limit
(simple)
25% Annual Family Limit
(NIST 811 rounded)
04
6
05
6
06
6
07
6
24
6.00
6
1.50
2
08
6
24
6.00
6
1.50
2
09
7
25
6.25
6
1.75
2
10
7
26
6.5
6
1.75
2
11
7
27
6.75
7
1.75
2
12
7
28
7.00
7
1.75
2
13
7
28
7.00
7
1.75
2
14
7
28
7.00
7
1.75
2
15
6
27
6.75
7
1.50
2
Calculations
4 -Year Ave. Cap (from
above)
25% Annual Family Limit
(from above)
# Tests Allowed/Year
(4 Year Cap Applied?)
#Tested/4 -Year Ave.
Annual Cap
(% Tested)
6
2
2
(no)
2/6
(33)
6
2
2
(no)
4/6
(67)
6
2
2
(no)
6/6
(100)
6
2
0
(yes)
6/6
(100)
7
2
2
(no)
6/7
(86)
7
2
2
(no)
6/7
(86)
7
2
2
(no)
6/7
(86)
7
2
1
(yes)
111
(100)
7
2
2
(no)
111
(100)
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Table A-3. Example of Engine Family Selection for 10 Families Per Year
Inputs
Model Year
# Certified Families
4-Year Total Families (3
preceding years + current
year)
4-Year Ave. Cap (simple)
4-Year Ave. Cap (NIST
811 rounded)
25% Annual Family
Limit (simple)
25% Annual Family
Limit (NIST 811
rounded)
04
10
05
10
06
10
Calculations
4- Year Ave. Cap (from
above)
25% Annual Family
Limit (from above)
# Tests Allowed/Year
(4-Year Cap Applied?)
# Tested/4-Year Ave.
Annual Cap
(% Tested)
07
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
08
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
09
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
10
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
11
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
12
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
13
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
14
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
15
10
40
10
10
2.5
2
10
2
2
(no)
2/10
(20)
10
2
2
(no)
4/10
(40)
10
2
2
(no)
6/10
(60)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
10
2
2
(no)
810
(80)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
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Table A-4. Example of Engine Family Selection for 9, 10, or 14 Families Per Year
Inputs
Model Year
# Certified Families/Year
4-Year Total Families (3
preceding years + current
year)
4-Year Ave. Cap (simple)
4-Year Ave. Cap (NIST
811 rounded)
25% Annual Family Limit
(simple)
25% Annual Family Limit
(NIST 811 rounded)
04
9
05
9
06
9
07
9
36
9.00
9
2.25
2
08
9
36
9.00
9
2.25
2
09
10
37
9.25
9
2.50
2
10
10
38
9.50
10
2.50
2
11
10
39
9.75
10
2.50
2
12
10
40
10.00
10
2.50
2
13
14
44
11.00
11
3.50
4
14
14
48
12.00
12
3.50
4
15
14
52
13.00
13
3.50
4
Calculations
4- Year Ave. Cap (from
above)
25% Annual Family Limit
(from above)
# Tests Allowed/Year
(4-Year Cap Applied?)
# Tested/4-Year Ave.
Annual Cap
(% Tested)
9
2
2
(no)
2/9
(22)
9
2
2
(no)
4/9
(44)
9
2
2
(no)
6/9
(67)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
10
2
2
(no)
8/10
(80)
11
4
4
(no)
10/11
(91)
12
4
4
(no)
12/12
(100)
13
4
3
(yes)
13/13
(100)
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Appendix References
1. National Institute of Standards and Technology. 1995. Guide for the Use of the International
System of Units (SI), NIST Special Publication 811, 1995 Edition. U. S. Department of Commerce.
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