\Jn\ted States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Region III
Chesapeake Bay
Program Office
Region III
Water Protection
Division
EPA 903-R-03-002
October 2004
In coordination with the Office of Water/Office of Science and Technology, Washington, DC
Ambient Water Quality
Criteria for Dissolved
Oxygen, Water Clarity and
Chlorophyll a for the
Chesapeake Bay and Its
Tidal Tributaries
2004 Addendum
October 2004

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       Ambient Water Quality Criteria
    for Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity
and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay
           and  Its Tidal Tributaries
                 2004 Addendum
                     October 2004

             U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                      Region III
               Chesapeake Bay Program Office
                   Annapolis, Maryland

                        and

                      Region III
                 Water Protection Division
                 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

                   in coordination with

                     Office of Water
               Office of Science and Technology
                    Washington, D.C.

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                        Contents
Acknowledgments  	   v

I. Introduction   	   1

II. Shortnose Sturgeon Temperature Sensitivity Analyses  	   3

III. Key Findings Published in the EPA ESA
   Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Evaluation 	   9
         Consultation History  	   9
         Biological Evaluation Findings	  11
         Biological Evaluation Conclusions	  13
         Literature Cited  	  15

IV. Key Findings Published in the NOAA ESA
   Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Opinion	  17
         Chlorophyll a Criteria	  17
         Water Clarity Criteria	  17
         Dissolved Oxygen Criteria	  18
             Sea turtles	  18
             Shortnose sturgeon	  18
         Incidental Take Statement	  20
         Amount and Extent of Take Anticipated	  20
             Extent of take from 2004-2009	  22
             Extent of take in 2010 and beyond 	  23
         Reasonable and Prudent Measures 	  23
         Literature Cited  	  24

V. Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous
      Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria  	  27
         Background	  27
         Current Status 	  27
         Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum Criteria
         Attainment from  Monthly Mean Data	  28
             Reference points with respect to depth	  29
             Data assemblage and manipulation	  29
             Designated use assignments 	  36
             Findings	  36
                                                                             Contents

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IV
                           Assessment of 7-Day Mean Criteria Attainment
                           from Monthly Mean Data Findings	  64
                           Findings  	  66
                           Literature Cited  	  66

                  VI. Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria
                     for and Assessing Criteria Attainment of Naturally Low
                     Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations in  Tidal Wetland
                     Influenced  Estuarine Systems	  67
                           Natural Conditions/Features Indicating Role of
                           Wetlands in Low Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations 	  68
                               Surface to volume ratios/large fringing wetland areas  	  68
                               Water quality conditions  	  68
                               Dissolved oxygen/temperature relationships	  71
                               Low variability in dissolved oxygen concentrations	  71
                           Approaches for Addressing Naturally Low Dissolved Oxygen
                           Conditions Due to Tidal Wetlands 	  73
                           Derivation of Site-Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Factoring
                           in Natural Wetland-Caused Dissolved Oxygen Deficits   	  76
                               Scientific research-based estimates of wetland respiration ....  77
                               Model-based wetland-caused oxygen deficits	  77
                               Monitoring-based estimates of wetland-caused oxygen deficits  78
                               Site-specific dissolved oxygen criteria derivation	  81
                               Site-specific criteria biological reference curve  	  82
                           Literature Cited  	  83

                  VII. Upper and Lower Pycnocline Boundary Delineation
                      Methodology  	  85
                           Determination of the Vertical Density Profile   	  86
                           Determination of the Pycnocline Depths	  86
                           Literature Cited  	  87
                  VIM.  Updated Guidance for Application of Water Clarity Criteria
                       and SAV Restoration Goal Acreages	  89
                           Water Clarity Criteria Application Periods 	  90
                           Shallow-water Habitat Acreages	  91
                               SAV restoration acreage to shallow-water habitat acreage ratio  91
                           SAV Restoration Goal Acreages 	  92
                           Determining Attainment of the Shallow-water Bay Grass Use . .  93
                           Literature Cited  	  94

                  IX. Determining Where Numerical Chlorophyll a Criteria
                     Should Apply to Local Chesapeake Bay and
                     Tidal Tributary Waters  	  87
                           Recommended Methodology  	  97
                           Literature Cited  	  99

                  Appendix A: Wetland Area, Segment Perimenter/Area/Volume
                  and  Water Quality Parameter Statistics for Chesapeake Bay
                  Tidal Fresh and Oligohaline Segments  	101
 Contents

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               Acknowledgments
This addendum to the April 2003 Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen,
Water Clarity and Chlorophyll afar Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries was
developed and documented through the collaborative efforts of the members of the
Chesapeake Bay Program's Water Quality Standards Coordinators Team: Richard
Batiuk, U.S. EPA Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office;  Joe Beaman, Mary-
land Department  of the Environment;  Gregory Hope,  District of Columbia
Department of Health; Libby Chatfield, West Virginia Environmental Quality Board;
Tiffany Crawford, U.S. EPA Region III Water Protection Division; Elleanore Daub,
Virginia Department of Environmental Quality; Lisa Huff, U.S. EPA Office of
Water; Wayne Jackson, U.S. EPA Region II; James Keating, U.S. EPA Office of
Water; Robert Koroncai, U.S. EPA Region III Water Protection Division; Benita
Moore,  Pennsylvania  Department of Environmental Protection;  Shah Nawaz,
District of Columbia Department of Health; Scott Stoner, New York State Depart-
ment of Environmental Conservation;  David Wolanski,  Delaware Department of
Natural  Resources and Environmental Control; and Carol Young, Pennsylvania
Department of Environmental Protection.

The individual and collective contributions from members of the Chesapeake Bay
Program Office and NOAA  Chesapeake Bay Office staff are also acknowledged:
Danielle Algazi, U.S.  EPA  Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office;  David
Jasinski, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science/Chesapeake Bay
Program Office; Marcia Olson, NOAA Chesapeake Bay  Office; Gary  Shenk, U.S.
EPA Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office; and Howard Weinberg, University
of Maryland Center for Environmental Science/Chesapeake Bay Program Office.
                                                                         Acknowledgments

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                             chapter |
                       Introduction
In April 2003,  the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the
Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chloro-
phyll a for the Chesapeake  Bay  and Its Tidal Tributaries  (Regional  Criteria
Guidance) in cooperation with and on behalf of the six watershed states—New York,
Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia and West Virginia—and the District of
Columbia. The culmination of three years of work, the Regional Criteria Guidance
document was the direct result of the collective contributions of hundreds of regional
scientists, technical staff and agency managers and the independent review by recog-
nized experts across the country.

At the time of publication of the Regional Criteria Guidance document, a number of
technical issues still remained to be worked through, resolved and documented. The
Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Standards Coordinators Team—water quality  stan-
dards program  managers  and coordinators  from the  seven Chesapeake  Bay
watershed jurisdictions and EPA's Office of Water, Region 2 and Region 3—took on
the responsibility on behalf of the Chesapeake Bay watershed partners to collectively
work through these technical issues. The work on these issues was largely in support
of the four jurisdictions with bay tidal waters who were formally adopting the
published Chesapeake Bay water quality criteria, designated uses and criteria attain-
ment procedures into  their states' water quality standards regulations.

This first EPA published addendum to the 2003 Ambient Water Quality Criteria for
Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll afar the Chesapeake Bay and Its
Tidal Tributaries documents the resolution of and recommendations for addressing
the following technical issues and criteria attainment procedures.

•  Guidance to the jurisdictions on where and when to apply the temperature-based
   open-water 4.3  mg  liter"1  instantaneous  minimum dissolved oxygen  criteria
   required to protect  the endangered shortnose sturgeon (Chapter 2).

•  Key findings published in the Endangered Species Act required EPA shortnose
   sturgeon biological evaluation of the potential impacts and benefits from publica-
   tion of the Regional Criteria Guidance (Chapter 3).
                                                                     chapter i  •  Introduction

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                   •  Summary of findings, incidental take and recommended reasonable and prudent
                     measures published in the Endangered Species Act required NOAA shortnose
                     sturgeon biological opinion on the potential impacts and benefits from state adop-
                     tion of the Regional Criteria Guidance into water quality standards (Chapter 4).

                   •  Guidance to the jurisdictions on when and where attainment of the instantaneous
                     minimum, 1-day mean and 7-day mean dissolved oxygen criteria can be assessed
                     using monthly mean water quality monitoring data (Chapter 5).

                   •  Guidance to the jurisdictions for deriving site-specific dissolved oxygen criteria
                     and assessing criteria attainment  of those  tidal systems where naturally  low
                     dissolved oxygen concentrations are due to extensive  adjacent tidal wetlands
                     (Chapter 6).

                   •  Documentation  of the methodology for delineating  the upper and lower bound-
                     aries of the  pycnocline used  in  defining the  vertical boundaries between
                     open-water, deep-water and deep-channel designated uses (Chapter 7).

                   •  Updated guidance to the jurisdictions for potential combined application  of the
                     numerical water clarity criteria to shallow water habitats and submerged aquatic
                     vegetation (SAV) restoration goal acreages for defining attainment of the shallow-
                     water bay grass  designated use (Chapter 8).

                   •  Guidance to the jurisdictions for determining where numerical chlorophyll a
                     criteria should apply to local Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributary waters (Chapter
                     9).
                   Through publication by EPA as  a formal addendum to the 2003 Chesapeake Bay
                   Regional Criteria Guidance document,  this document should be viewed by readers
                   as supplemental chapters and appendices to the  original published Regional Criteria
                   Guidance  document. The publication  of future  addendums by EPA is likely as
                   continued scientific research and management  application reveal new insights  and
                   knowledge to be incorporated into revisions of state water quality standards regula-
                   tions in upcoming triennial reviews.
chapter i  •  Introduction

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                          chapter||
Shortnose Surgeon  Temperature
              Sensitivity  Analyses
For water column temperatures greater than 29°C, documented as stressful to short-
nose  sturgeon, EPA established  a Chesapeake Bay open-water dissolved oxygen
criterion of 4.3 mg liter"1 instantaneous minimum to protect survival of this listed
sturgeon species  (U.S. EPA 2003). An investigation was conducted to determine if
there were water column habitats within Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries
where water column temperatures routinely exceed 29°C. States would need to apply
the 4.3 mg liter"1 instantaneous minimum dissolved oxygen criterion in such open-
water habitats.
Bottom water temperature  data  were examined  for  the June through September
period for the years 1996 through 2002  for all Chesapeake Bay tidal water quality
monitoring stations throughout the mainstem Bay and tidal tributaries. Observations
greater than 29°C at a station were expressed as a  percentage of the total number of
observations at the station for the 1996 through 2002 summer time  period. These
percentages were then interpolated and displayed on a map (Figure II-l). Due to the
high  density of stations within the District  of Columbia's tidal waters, this region
was examined in greater detail (Figure II-2).

Areas with a higher percentage of tidal water temperatures above 29°C were almost
exclusively in the tidal fresh and oligohaline regions of the tidal tributaries. The tidal
fresh James and Appomattox rivers had the highest percentages with  16^10 percent
of the summer bottom water temperatures exceeding 29°C. In the Northeast,  Elk,
Bohemia, Sassafras, and tidal fresh  segmemts of the Chester, Patuxent, Potomac,
Rappahannock, Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers, temperatures exceeded 29°C 5-15
percent of the time.
Examining the District of Columbia's water  quality monitoring stations' bottom
temperature data, it appeared that there were some stations with fairly high percent-
ages of temperatures exceeding the 29°C temperature threshold (Figure II-2). But on
closer examination, these stations were infrequently sampled and,  therefore, the
percentages were misleading. Based  on a more strict evaluation of the total number
of exceedences by station, it did not appear that elevated bottom water temperatures
                                chapter ii  • Shortnose Sturgeon Temperature Sensitivity Analyses

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                       Temperature Threshhold Violations
                       by Percent Occurence
                           0%
                        • 1-5
                       ^B 6-15
                       |^| 16-25
                       ^B 26-42
                                                   *\g*
                                               r   ,  -*» •.„"•
                                               •&**»*. •"*.
                                                    TA v,-         /
                                                      •>l>  _r u. -*"-i ,iirj
                                                      •^i •'*$•   w-Ti
                                                     riP
                 Figure 11-1. Interpolated percent occurrence of bottom water temperatures greater than
                 29°C from June-September 1996-2002 at the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring
                 Program stations.  Data were drawn from 48 monitoring cruises over the 7 year period.
                 Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
                 http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
chapter ii  • Shortnose Sturgeon Temperature Sensitivity Analyses

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                                                                                                  5
     Court of Enueitoncc 29 C
     QJ
        1
        I
     •
Figure II-2. Percent occurrence of bottom water temperatures greater than 29°C from
June- September 1996-2002 at the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program
stations located in the District of Columbia's tidal waters.
Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
were high enough to trigger routine application of the 4.3 mg liter   instantaneous
minimum criterion in District of Columbia tidal waters (Figure II-3).

To further narrow down on those tidal water habitats where the temperature-based
4.3 mg liter"1 instantaneous minimum dissolved oxygen criterion would likely
routinely apply,  the baywide data set  described previously was examined for the
number of bottom water dissolved oxygen concentrations  less than 4.3 mg liter"1
when the corresponding bottom water temperature exceeded 29°C. Over the summer
periods of 1996 through 2002, there were a total of 20 incidences of these two condi-
tions among 9 stations. Five of the stations were in the Southern Branch Elizabeth
River and there  was one station each in the tidal fresh segments of the Choptank,
Patuxent, and Pamunkey rivers and in the oligohaline segment of the Rappahannock
River (Figure II-4).
                                    chapter ii  •  Shortnose Sturgeon Temperature Sensitivity Analyses

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6
                                                                                          Kilometers
                    Figure 11-3. The number of times the bottom water temperatures were greater than 29°C
                    from June-September 1996-2002 at the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring
                    Program stations located in the District of Columbia's tidal waters.
                    Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
                    http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
                    Based on these evaluations, there appear to be no widespread tidal water habitats
                    exceeding the  29°C  threshold, thereby  requiring routine  application  of the
                    temperature-based 4.3 mg liter"1 instantaneous minimum dissolved oxygen criteria.
                    Jurisdictions are advised to evaluate water column temperatures prior to assessing
                    attainment of the open-water dissolved oxygen criteria to determine if, where and
                    when this temperature-based dissolved oxygen criterion should be applied to protect
                    the open-water designated use.
                                              LITERATURE  CITED
                    U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003. Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved
                    Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
                    EPA 903-R-03-002. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
 chapter
Shortnose Sturgeon Temperature Sensitivity Analyses

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Figure 11-4. Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program stations where both
bottom water dissolved oxygen concentrations were less than 4.3 mg liter1 and bottom
water temperatures were greater than 29°C from June-September 1996-2002.

Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
                                      chapter ii  •  Shortnose Sturgeon Temperature Sensitivity Analyses

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                        chapter|||
   Key  Findings Published  in the
    EPA  ESA  Shortnose  Sturgeon
            Biological  Evaluation
In November of 2000, EPA initiated a voluntary informal consultation with NOAA
National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries) under Section 7(a)(2) of the
Endangered Species Act (ESA) for the issuance of guidance for Chesapeake Bay
specific water quality criteria for dissolved oxygen, water quality and chlorophyll a.
Upon publication of Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water
Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries
(Regional Criteria Guidance) (U.S. EPA 2003a), EPA initiated formal consultation
with NOAA Fisheries. At the same time, EPA submitted its final Biological Evalua-
tion for the Issuance of Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water
Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and its Tidal Tributaries (U.S.
EPA 2003b) to NOAA Fisheries. This chapter provides a concise summary of key
findings published in EPA's biological evaluation.1
                  CONSULTATION  HISTORY
EPA sent a letter to NOAA Fisheries on November 24, 2000, requesting comments
on the list of federally listed threatened or endangered species and/or designated crit-
ical habitat for listed species under the jurisdiction of NOAA Fisheries. NOAA
Fisheries responded in a letter dated January 8, 2001. In this letter, NOAA Fisheries
indicated that the endangered and threatened  species under its jurisdiction in the
vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries were: federally threatened
loggerhead (Caretta carettd), and endangered Kemp's ridley (Lepidochelys kempii),
green  (Chelonia  mydas), hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata)  and leatherback
(Dermochelys coriacea) sea turtles; federally endangered North Atlantic right
1-Tlie entire biological evaluation document can be viewed and downloaded at:
 http://www.chesapeakebay.net/pubs/ subcommittee/wqsc/B E_final.pdf
          chapter iii •  Key Findings Published in the EPA ESA Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Evaluation

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10
                    (Eubalaena glacialis),  humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), fin  (Balaenoptera
                    physalus), sei (Balaenoptera borealis) and sperm (Physter macrocephalus) whales;
                    and federally endangered shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum). In this letter,
                    NOAA Fisheries indicated to EPA that the revised dissolved oxygen criteria should
                    be evaluated for effects on shortnose sturgeon survival, foraging, reproduction and
                    distribution due to the lowering of dissolved oxygen criteria in the Chesapeake Bay.
                    On December 20, 2002, EPA sent a letter to NOAA Fisheries requesting concurrence
                    with EPA's conclusion that the proposed criteria and refined designated uses would
                    not adversely affect the listed species under NOAA Fisheries'jurisdiction. Included
                    with this letter were a Biological Evaluation regarding the shortnose sturgeon and a
                    copy of the draft criteria  document. In a January 7, 2003 letter, NOAA Fisheries
                    replied to EPA and indicated that it concurred with EPA's conclusion as it applied to
                    federally listed sea turtles  and marine mammals but that NOAA Fisheries could not
                    concur that the revised dissolved  oxygen criteria would not adversely affect short-
                    nose sturgeon. NOAA Fisheries provided several comments to EPA on the contents
                    of the biological evaluation regarding the effects of the dissolved oxygen standards
                    on shortnose sturgeon and  indicated that EPA should revise the biological evaluation.
                    Subsequent to receiving this  letter, NOAA Fisheries and EPA staff communicated
                    informally to revise the contents of the biological evaluation.
                    In February 2003, several meetings and conference calls took place between EPA
                    and NOAA Fisheries staff. Included in these meetings was a discussion as to how the
                    formal consultation would be conducted.  The complicating factor was that while
                    EPA was issuing the Regional Criteria Guidance document as guidance to the states,
                    the states were not obligated to adopt the criteria exactly as outlined in the Regional
                    Criteria Guidance document. It was determined between EPA and NOAA Fisheries
                    staff that a programmatic approach would be taken in developing  an appropriate
                    biological opinion. In this  scenario, EPA would consult with NOAA Fisheries on the
                    effects of issuing the guidance document to the states and District of Columbia since
                    EPA would evaluate the  States and District  of Columbia's revised water quality
                    criteria in light of the Chesapeake Bay specific guidance. Then, when the states had
                    developed their water quality standard regulations and submitted them to EPA, EPA
                    would consult again with NOAA Fisheries on the effects of EPA approving the stan-
                    dards  proposed by the  states.  This type  of  programmatic consultation was
                    particularly appropriate as the pollutant loads from each State and the District of
                    Columbia mix in the Chesapeake  Bay and the water quality in the Bay and its tidal
                    tributaries would be a result of the combined pollutant loads from the various states
                    and the District of Columbia. The  consultation that is the subject  of EPA's final
                    biological evaluation published April 25, 2003 and NOAA Fisheries final biological
                    opinion dated April 16, 2004 serves as the first in a series of consultations that will
                    take place between EPA and NOAA Fisheries on the effects of EPA's issuing water
                    quality criteria and approving water quality standards for the  Chesapeake Bay and
                    its tidal tributaries.
  chapter iii  •  Key Findings Published in the EPA ESA Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Evaluation

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                                                                                                11
In April 2003, EPA published the final Regional Criteria Guidance document. At
that  time, EPA  indicated that it had not made any irreversible or irretrievable
commitment of resources that would foreclose the formulation or implementation of
any  reasonable and prudent  alternatives to  avoiding jeopardizing endangered or
threatened species.
On April 25, 2003, EPA submitted a final Biological Evaluation to NOAA Fisheries
along with the published Regional Criteria  Guidance and a letter requesting that
NOAA Fisheries initiate formal consultation on the effects of the issuance of the
dissolved oxygen criteria on shortnose sturgeon. The date April 25, 2003, serves as
the initiation of formal consultation on the shortnose sturgeon for the issuance of the
Regional Criteria Guidance.
During the formal consultation process, EPA and NOAA Fisheries staff continued to
hold discussions regarding the evaluation of the effects of EPA's regional criteria on
the shortnose sturgeon.  On October 30, 2003, EPA management and staff traveled to
NOAA Fisheries offices in Gloucester, Massachusetts, to provide technical informa-
tion  and background information on the  Chesapeake Bay Program's ambient water
quality criteria,  designated uses,  monitoring program  and predictive modeling
assessments of water quality conditions  of the Bay. Subsequently, communication
between the respective  staffs continued, through which EPA provided NOAA Fish-
eries with requested data necessary to complete a determination  analysis for the
biological opinion. NOAA Fisheries communicated informally to the EPA that it
concurred with  EPA's  determination that the  issuance of the Chesapeake  Bay
specific criteria  would not affect endangered and  threatened whales and that the
issuance of the criteria  for water clarity and chlorophyll a likely would beneficially
affect federally listed sea turtles and the endangered shortnose sturgeon. However,
NOAA Fisheries indicated that the issuance of the dissolved oxygen criteria may
affect shortnose sturgeon and sea turtles. The effect of EPA's issuance of the ambient
water quality criteria on shortnose sturgeon  and sea turtles was the  subject of the
consultation.
             BIOLOGICAL EVALUATION  FINDINGS
The EPA determined through consultation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
and the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service that the only endangered or threat-
ened species under the NOAA Fisheries jurisdiction in the evaluation area that would
potentially be affected was  the endangered shortnose  sturgeon (Acipenser brevi-
rostrum). All the other federally-listed species within the Chesapeake Bay and its
tidal tributaries would either  not be affected or would be beneficially affected by the
issuance of the Regional Criteria Guidance.
The EPA determined that the recommended water clarity criteria would not likely
adversely effect the listed species evaluated. Furthermore, the EPA determined that
           chapter iii  •  Key Findings Published in the EPA ESA Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Evaluation

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12
                    the proposed water clarity criteria would beneficially affect  preferred habitat,
                    spawning areas and food sources that the listed shortnose sturgeon depends.

                    The EPA determined that the recommended chlorophyll a criteria would not likely
                    adversely affect the listed species evaluated. Furthermore, the EPA determined that
                    the recommended chlorophyll a criteria would beneficially affect preferred habitat,
                    spawning habitat and food sources on which the listed species depends.

                    The EPA determined that the collective application of dissolved oxygen criteria for
                    the migratory fish spawning and nursery and open-water fish and shellfish  desig-
                    nated uses were fully protective of shortnose sturgeon survival and growth for all life
                    stages based on the following:
                    •  The migratory spawning and nursery 6 mg liter"1 7-day mean and 5 mg instanta-
                       neous  minimum criteria will  fully  protect spawning shortnose sturgeon.  The
                       February 1 through May 31 application period for the migratory spawning and
                       nursery criteria fully encompasses the mid-March through mid-May spawning
                       season documented previously from the scientific peer-reviewed literature.
                    •  The individual components of the open-water criteria protect shortnose sturgeon
                       growth (5 mg liter"1 30-day mean), larval recruitment (4 mg liter"1 7-day mean)
                       and survival (3.2  mg liter"1 instantaneous minimum). A 4.3 mg liter"1 instanta-
                       neous minimum criterion applies to open waters with temperatures above 29°C
                       considered stressful to shortnose sturgeon.
                    •  The open-water criteria applied to tidal fresh waters include a 5.5  mg  liter"1
                       30-day mean criterion providing extra protection of shortnose  sturgeon juveniles
                       inhabiting tidal freshwater habitats.

                    The EPA determined that adoption of the proposed dissolved oxygen criteria into
                    Maryland, Virginia, Delaware and the District of Columbia's state water quality stan-
                    dards and their eventual attainment would beneficially affect shortnose sturgeon
                    spawning, nursery, juvenile and adult habitats and food sources by  driving wide-
                    spread nutrient loading  reduction actions leading to increased existing  ambient
                    dissolved oxygen concentrations. EPA stated that this determination was consistent
                    with and pursuant to Endangered Species Act provisions that the responsible federal
                    agency—EPA in this case—use its authority to further the  purpose of protecting
                    threatened and endangered species (see  16 U.S.C.  §  1536(a)).  EPA also  stated that
                    its  determination was also consistent with the NOAA National Marine Fisheries
                    Recovery Plan for shortnose sturgeon which recommends working  cooperatively
                    with states to promote increased state activities to promote best management prac-
                    tices to reduce non-point sources (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service 1998).
                    The EPA determined that adoption, implementation and eventual full attainment of
                    the states' adopted dissolved oxygen water quality standards would result in signifi-
                    cant improvements in dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout the tidal waters to
                    levels last observed consistently more than four to five decades ago in Chesapeake
                    Bay and its tidal tributaries.
  chapter iii  •  Key Findings Published in the EPA ESA Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Evaluation

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                                                                                                13
The EPA recognized in the biological evaluation that dissolved oxygen criteria for
June through September for the deep-water seasonal fish and shellfish and the deep-
channel designated uses were at or below levels that protect shortnose sturgeon. The
EPA believed there were strong lines of evidence that shortnose sturgeon historically
have not used  deep-water and deep-channel designated use habitats during  the
summer months due to naturally pervasive low dissolved oxygen conditions based
on the following:
• Published findings in the scientific literature regarding salinity preferences (tidal
  fresh to 5 ppt) and salinity tolerances (<15 ppt) clearly indicated shortnose stur-
  geon habitats were unlikely to overlap with the higher salinity deep-water and
  deep-channel designated use habitats.
• The EPA concluded, based on extensive published scientific findings and in-depth
  analysis of the 1400 record U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Reward Program data-
  base, that these same deep-water and deep-channel regions have not  served as
  potential  habitats  for sturgeon during the June through September time period
  when there is a natural tendency for low dissolved oxygen conditions to occur.
• The EPA recognized the potential limitations of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
  data set. However, the EPA believed the significant extent of the capture records—
  400 stations and 1400 individuals caught—provided substantial evidence for the
  lack of a potential conflict between shortnose habitat and seasonally applied deep-
  water and deep-channel designated uses.

The EPA determined that the recommended dissolved oxygen criteria for the refined
designated uses would not likely adversely affect the listed species evaluated in this
document. Furthermore, the EPA determined that the Chesapeake Bay  dissolved
oxygen criteria would beneficially affect critical habitat and food sources on which
the listed species was dependent.
          BIOLOGICAL  EVALUATION  CONCLUSIONS

Shortnose sturgeon are endangered throughout their entire range (NOAA National
Marine  Fisheries Service 2002). According  to  NOAA, in the Final Biological
Opinion for the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit for the
Washington Aqueduct, this species exists as 19 separate distinct population segments
that should be managed as such.  Specifically, the extinction of a single shortnose
sturgeon population risks permanent loss of unique genetic information that is crit-
ical to the  survival and recovery of the species (NOAA National Marine Fisheries
Service 2002). The shortnose sturgeon residing in the Chesapeake Bay and its tribu-
taries form one of the 19 distinct population segments.

Adult shortnose sturgeon are present in the Chesapeake Bay based on the 50 captures
via the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Atlantic Sturgeon Reward Program. However,
the presence and abundance of all life stages within the evaluation area itself are
unknown.  Preliminary published scientific evidence suggests that the  shortnose
           chapter iii  • Key Findings Published in the EPA ESA Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Evaluation

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14
                    sturgeon captured in the Chesapeake Bay may be part of the Delaware distinct popu-
                    lation segment using the C & D Canal as a migratory passage. However, the NOAA
                    National Marine Fisheries Service recommended that more studies utilizing nuclear
                    DNA needed to be conducted before this can be proven conclusively.
                    Section 9 of the Endangered Species Act and Federal regulations pursuant to section
                    4(d) of the Endangered Species Act prohibit the  take of endangered and threatened
                    species, respectively, without special exemption. 'Take' is defined as to harass, harm,
                    pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture or collect, or to attempt to engage in
                    any such conduct. 'Harm' is further defined by  NOAA National Marine Fisheries
                    Service to include any act that  kills or injures  fish or wildlife. Such an act may
                    include significant habitat modification or degradation that actually kills or injures
                    fish or wildlife by significantly impairing essential behavioral  patterns  including
                    breeding, spawning, rearing, migrating, feeding, or sheltering. 'Harass' is defined by
                    U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as intentional or negligent actions that create the like-
                    lihood of injury to listed species to such an extent as to significantly disrupt normal
                    behavior patterns which include, but are not limited to, breeding, feeding or shel-
                    tering. 'Incidental take' is defined as take that is incidental to, and not the purpose
                    of, the carrying out of an otherwise lawful activity.
                    The shortnose sturgeon recovery plan further identifies habitat degradation or loss
                    (resulting, for example, from dams,  bridge construction, channel dredging, and
                    pollutant  discharges)  and  mortality (resulting, for example, from impingement on
                    cooling water intake screens, dredging and incidental capture in other fisheries) as
                    principal threats to the species' survival (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service
                    1998). The  recovery goal is  identified as  delisting  shortnose sturgeon populations
                    throughout their range, and the recovery objective is to ensure that a minimum popu-
                    lation size is provided  such  that genetic  diversity is  maintained and extinction is
                    avoided.
                    Considering the nature of the Regional Criteria Guidance, the effects of the recom-
                    mended criteria, and future cumulative effects in  the evaluation area, the issuance of
                    Regional Criteria Guidance was not likely to  adversely affect the reproduction,
                    numbers, and distribution of the Chesapeake Bay distinct population segment in a
                    way that appreciably reduces their  likelihood of survival and recovery in the wild.
                    This contention was based on the following: (1) the adoption of the recommended
                    dissolved oxygen criteria  into state water quality standards  and  subsequent attain-
                    ment upon achievement of the Chesapeake Bay watershed's nutrient loading caps
                    would provide for significant water quality improvements to the tributaries to  the
                    Chesapeake Bay (such as the Susquehanna, Gunpowder, and Rappahannock rivers)
                    where the shortnose sturgeon would most  likely  spawn and spend their first year of
                    life; (2) the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay most likely  experienced reductions
                    in dissolved oxygen before large-scale post-colonial land clearance took place, due
                    to  natural factors such as climate-driven variability  in freshwater inflow;  and
                    (3) there  was strong evidence that shortnose sturgeon have historically not used
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deep-water and deep-channel designated use habitats during the summer months due
to naturally pervasive low dissolved oxygen conditions.

Based on the evaluations conducted in the biological evaluation, EPA concluded that
the  issuance of the Regional  Criteria Guidance  would not adversely affect the
continued existence of the Chesapeake Bay district population segment of shortnose
sturgeon. No critical habitat has been designated for this species and, therefore, none
will be affected. In fact, the EPA believed state adoption of the criteria into water
quality standards would directly lead to increased levels of suitable habitat for short-
nose sturgeon.
                          LITERATURE  CITED

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service. 1998. Recovery Plan for the Shortnose Sturgeon
(Acipenser  brevirostrum).  Prepared by the  Shortnose  Sturgeon Recovery  Team for the
National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, Maryland.

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service. 2002. Final Biological Opinion for the National
Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit for the  Washington Aqueduct. Gloucester,
Massachusetts.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003a. Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved
Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
EPA 903-R-03-002. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.

U. S.  Environmental Protection Agency. 2003b. Biological Evaluation for the Issuance of
Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for
the Chesapeake Bay and its Tidal Tributaries. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office,
Annapolis, Maryland.
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                       chapter
   Key  Findings  Published  in  the
  NOAA  ESA  Shortnose  Sturgeon
              Biological  Opinion
In response to EPA's submission of a biological evaluation and request for formal
consultation under Section 7 (a)(2) of the Endangered Species Act as described in
Chapter 2,  the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service published a biological
opinion (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service 2004). This chapter provides an
extracted summary of key findings, the incidential take statement and recommended
reasonable and prudent measures published in NOAA's biological opinion 2.
                 CHLOROPHYLL  A CRITERIA

NOAA Fisheries determined that the chlorophyll a criteria will beneficially affect
the food sources for several species of listed sea turtles and benefit the habitat of
shortnose sturgeon and sea turtles (NOAA Fisheries 2004). This is based on the
finding that  the recommended Chesapeake Bay chlorophyll a criteria provide
concentrations characteristic of desired ecological trophic conditions and protective
against water quality and  ecological impairments (U.S. EPA 2003a). When the
chlorophyll a criteria are met, light levels and dissolved oxygen levels in the Chesa-
peake Bay system should improve (U.S. EPA 2003b). The proposed chlorophyll a
concentrations should be protective against these water quality impairments. The
criteria should significantly improve water quality conditions in the Bay, particularly
for underwater Bay grasses.
                 WATER CLARITY CRITERIA
NOAA Fisheries determined that shortnose sturgeon and sea turtles are expected to
benefit from the improved water quality resulting from the adoption of the proposed
2The entire biological opinion document can be viewed and downloaded at:
 http://www.chesapeakebay.net/pubs/BONMFS.pdf
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18
                    water clarity criteria (NOAA Fisheries 2004). The endangered green sea turtle feeds
                    directly on sea grasses while other sea turtle species feed on shellfish which are
                    dependent on the underwater grasses for habitat. The criteria for water clarity fully
                    support the survival, growth and propagation of balanced, indigenous populations of
                    ecologically important fish and shellfish inhabiting vegetated shallow-water habitats
                    (U.S. EPA 2003b). As the water clarity criteria will lead to increased water quality and
                    an increased forage base for sea turtles, NOAA Fisheries believed that these criteria
                    will beneficially affect listed sea turtles. While shortnose sturgeon are not directly
                    dependent on underwater grasses, these grasses are an important part of the food chain
                    making the protection of bay grasses beneficial to shortnose sturgeon as well.
                                      DISSOLVED  OXYGEN  CRITERIA
                     SEA TURTLES

                     After reviewing the best available  information on the  status of endangered  and
                     threatened species under NOAA Fisheries jurisdiction, the environmental baseline
                     for the action area, the effects of the action, and the cumulative effects, it was NOAA
                     Fisheries' opinion that the EPA's approval of the dissolved oxygen criteria for Chesa-
                     peake Bay and its tidal tributaries was not likely to adversely affect loggerhead,
                     leatherback,  Kemp's ridley, green,  or hawksbill  sea turtles. Because no critical
                     habitat is designated in the action area, none will be affected by the project.
                     NOAA Fisheries believed that the dissolved oxygen criteria would beneficially affect
                     endangered and threatened  sea turtles that may be present in the Chesapeake Bay.
                     Loggerhead, Kemps ridley, leatherback and green sea turtles are likely to be present
                     in the action area. The occurrence of a hawksbill turtle in the area would be  a  rare
                     occurrence. The effect of the dissolved oxygen levels on juvenile and adult turtles
                     have been assessed. As turtles are air breathers, there are not  likely to be any direct
                     effects to sea turtles as a result of these dissolved  oxygen criteria. As the dissolved
                     oxygen conditions in the Bay were  expected to continually improve over the next
                     several years until the nutrient and sediment enrichment goals were  met, NOAA
                     Fisheries anticipated that as habitat conditions improve in the Bay and habitat  was
                     restored, there would be an  increased forage base for sea turtles.

                     SHORTNOSE STURGEON

                     NOAA Fisheries determined that the water clarity and chlorophyll a criteria were
                     expected to improve water quality conditions in  the Bay and its tidal tributaries,
                     beneficially affecting all native  species  of the Bay including shortnose sturgeon
                     (NOAA Fisheries  2004). While the dissolved oxygen levels authorized by this set of
                     criteria may result in some short-term adverse effects  to shortnose sturgeon, no
                     chronic or lethal effects were expected.
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In addition, NOAA Fisheries determined that the adoption of the dissolved oxygen
criteria would result in significantly improved water quality conditions in the Bay,
elimination of anoxic zones and the  improvement in the quality and quantity of
habitat available to shortnose sturgeon as well as improving the chances for recovery
of the Chesapeake Bay population of shortnose sturgeon and the long term sustain-
ability of this population (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service 2004).
This determination was based on the following conclusions:
•  The effects of the ambient water quality criteria for the Chesapeake Bay and its
   tidal tributaries have been analyzed on the Chesapeake Bay population of short-
   nose sturgeon. While the dissolved oxygen levels authorized by this set of criteria
   may result in  some  short-term adverse effects to shortnose sturgeon through
   displacement or other behavioral or physiological adjustments, no chronic effects
   are expected. No lethal effects are  expected as a result of the dissolved oxygen
   criteria and significant  protections are  being  provided to essential habitats
   including deep water, spawning and nursery habitats.
•  The adoption of the dissolved oxygen criteria will result in significantly improved
   water quality conditions in the Bay, elimination of anoxic zones and the improve-
   ment in the quality and quantity of habitat available to shortnose sturgeon as well
   as  improving the chances for shortnose sturgeon recovery in  the  Bay  and
   improving the likelihood of long-term  sustainability of this population.
•  NOAA Fisheries believes that the issuance of these criteria,  as currently stated,
   would not reduce the reproduction, numbers and distribution of the Chesapeake
   Bay shortnose sturgeon population or the species as a whole in a way that appre-
   ciably reduces  the likelihood  of the species' survival and recovery in the wild.
   This conclusion was  supported by  the following:  (1) no lethal takes of any life
   stage of shortnose sturgeon are anticipated to occur; (2) the demonstrated ability
   of shortnose sturgeon to  avoid hypoxic areas and move to areas with suitable
   dissolved oxygen levels;  (3) the availability of adequate habitat with not only
   suitable temperature,  salinity and depth, but suitable dissolved oxygen levels; (4)
   the seasonal nature  of the anticipated effects (i.e., no  effects anticipated from
   October 1-May 31 of any year); (5)  adequate protection of essential spawning and
   nursery areas protecting  not  only  spawning  adults but  eggs and larvae from
   hypoxic conditions; (6) the elimination of anoxic areas within the Bay; (7) a large
   portion of the deep-water areas have  low temperatures and  adequate  dissolved
   oxygen levels allowing shortnose sturgeon to be less dependent on the deepest
   areas of the Chesapeake  Bay (deep-channels) for thermal refugia;  and (8) the
   significant improvement  in Bay water quality conditions and increased avail-
   ability of suitable habitat for all life stages of shortnose sturgeon.
As such, it  was NOAA Fisheries' biological opinion that the approval of these
criteria by EPA may adversely affect the Chesapeake Bay population of endangered
shortnose sturgeon through displacement to  suboptimal habitat  or other behavioral
and metabolic responses to hypoxic conditions but was not likely to jeopardize the
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20
                    continued existence of the Chesapeake Bay population of shortnose sturgeon or the
                    species as a whole (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service 2004).
                                     INCIDENTAL  TAKE  STATEMENT

                    Section 9 of the ESA and Federal regulations pursuant to section 4(d) of the ESA
                    prohibit the take of endangered and threatened  species,  respectively.  "Incidental
                    take" is defined as take that is incidental to, and not the purpose of, the carrying out
                    of an otherwise lawful activity (50 CFR402.02). Under the terms of section 7(b)(4)
                    and section 7(o)(2) of the ESA, taking that is incidental to and not intended as part
                    of the agency action is not considered to be prohibited under the ESA provided that
                    such taking is in compliance with the terms and conditions of this Incidental Take
                    Statement.

                    According to the EPA Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen,  Water
                    Clarity and  Chlorophyll  a for  the  Chesapeake Bay  and Its  Tidal  Tributaries
                    (Regional Criteria Guidance), the goal of this program is that states will adopt water
                    quality standards consistent with the Regional Criteria Guidance and further imple-
                    ment those water quality standards so that nutrient and sediment load reductions will
                    be achieved by 2010. At that  time, EPA expects that the dissolved oxygen criteria
                    will be met for all designated uses. This Incidental Take Statement accounts for take
                    that will occur before the 2010 goals are met and after the goals are met. Unless
                    NOAA Fisheries revokes,  modifies or replaces this Incidental Take Statement, this
                    Incidental Take Statement is  valid for as long as the EPA's  guidance document
                    remains in effect (NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service 2004). When the  States
                    and the District of Columbia seek EPA approval of their dissolved oxygen criteria,
                    NOAA Fisheries will verify at that time that EPA's approval of the state water quality
                    criteria will also be subject to this programmatic take statement. At that time, NOAA
                    Fisheries may revise this  Incidental Take Statement based on a particular State's
                    implementation plan, for example to include additional terms and conditions to mini-
                    mize the likelihood of take.
                          AMOUNT AND  EXTENT  OF TAKE ANTICIPATED
                    The proposed action is reasonably certain to result in incidental take of shortnose
                    sturgeon.  NOAA Fisheries  stated  it is  reasonably certain  the  incidental  take
                    described here will occur because (1) shortnose sturgeon are known to occur in the
                    action area; and (2) shortnose sturgeon are known to be adversely affected by low
                    dissolved oxygen levels as low dissolved  oxygen levels cause them to avoid areas,
                    increase surfacing behavior, and undergo  metabolic changes. Based on the evalua-
                    tion of the best available information on shortnose sturgeon and their use of the
                    Chesapeake Bay, NOAA Fisheries has concluded that the issuance of the dissolved
                    oxygen criteria for seasonal deep water, deep channel and open water  aquatic life
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                                                                                                21
uses was likely to result in take of shortnose sturgeon in the form of harassment of
shortnose sturgeon, where habitat conditions (i.e., dissolved oxygen levels below
those protective of shortnose  sturgeon) will temporarily impair normal behavior
patterns  of shortnose  sturgeon  (NOAA National Marine  Fisheries 2004). This
harassment will occur in the  form of avoidance or displacement from preferred
habitat and behavioral and/or metabolic compensations to deal  with short-term
hypoxic conditions. Neither lethal takes (see below) nor harm are anticipated in any
Bay area due to the extent of available habitat in the Bay  with dissolved oxygen
levels protective of shortnose  sturgeon and  the demonstrated ability of shortnose
sturgeon to avoid hypoxic areas and move to areas with suitable dissolved oxygen
levels. Shortnose sturgeon displaced from hypoxic areas were expected to seek and
find suitable alternative locations within the Bay. While shortnose sturgeon may
experience temporary  impairment of essential behavior patterns, no  significant
impairment resulting in injury (i.e., "harm") was likely due to: the temporary nature
of any effects, the large amount of suitable habitat with adequate dissolved oxygen
levels, and the ability of shortnose sturgeon to avoid hypoxic areas.

As outlined in the Biological Opinion, generally shortnose  sturgeon are adversely
affected upon exposure to dissolved oxygen levels  of less than 5mg liter"1 and lethal
effects are expected to occur  upon even moderate exposure to dissolved oxygen
levels of less than 3.2mg liter"1.  Because dissolved oxygen  levels are known to be
affected by various natural conditions (e.g., tides, hurricanes  or other weather events
including abnormally dry or wet years) beyond the control of EPA or the States and
District of Columbia and  can  fluctuate greatly within any given period of time, a
monthly average dissolved oxygen level has been determined to be the best measure
of this habitat condition within the Bay. As indicated in the  Biological Opinion, an
area that achieves a 5mg liter"1 monthly average will also achieve  at least a 3.2mg
liter"1 instantaneous minimum dissolved oxygen  level. As  shortnose sturgeon  are
reasonably certain to be adversely affected by dissolved oxygen conditions below
these levels, these levels can be used as a surrogate for take. As such, for purposes
of this Incidental Take Statement areas failing to meet a 5mg liter"1 monthly average
of dissolved oxygen will be a surrogate for take  of shortnose sturgeon. As  noted
above, this take is likely to occur in the form of avoidance or displacement from
preferred habitat and behavioral and/or metabolic compensations to deal with short-
term hypoxic conditions  (defined as harassment in this situation).  The amount of
habitat failing to meet an instantaneous minimum  of 3.2mg  liter"1 could be used as
a surrogate for lethal take of shortnose sturgeon; however, due to limitations of the
model developed by EPA (U.S. EPA 2003c), the amount of habitat failing to reach a
3.2mg liter"1 instantaneous minimum could not be modeled. However, an analysis of
the likelihood of lethal take can be based on the amount of habitat failing to reach a
3mg liter "1 monthly average (which would  also likely be failing to meet a 3.2mg
liter"1 instantaneous minimum). While a small portion of the Bay will fail to meet
the 3 mg liter"1 monthly average, shortnose sturgeon are likely to be able to  avoid
these areas. Lethal effects are only expected to occur after at least 2-4 hours of expo-
sure to dissolved oxygen levels of less than  3.2mg liter"1, and this is not likely to
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22
                    occur given the mobility of shortnose sturgeon  and the availability of suitable
                    habitat. Therefore, no lethal take is expected to occur.
                    The probability of lack of attainment of dissolved oxygen levels protective of short-
                    nose sturgeon when the 2010 sediment and nutrient reduction goals are met has been
                    modeled by EPA (U.S. EPA 2003c) and was the basis for determining the extent of
                    take anticipated. As such, take levels can be determined for each of the designated
                    uses where take is anticipated (open water, deep-water and deep-channel). As indi-
                    cated in the biological opinion, take is  likely to occur only in the summer months
                    (June 1-September 30).  Based on the  analysis documented in the accompanying
                    biological opinion, the area of the Bay designated uses that fail to meet a 5mg liter"1
                    monthly average dissolved oxygen level can be used as a surrogate for take of short-
                    nose sturgeon by harassment. As shortnose sturgeon are benthic fish, the modeling
                    runs done for the bottom layer of the Bay have been used to determine the extent of
                    take. To further refine this analysis, the "tolerate" habitat threshold has been used;
                    that is, the estimate of area that will have temperatures <28°C, salinity <29 ppt and
                    depth <25 meters which can be reasonably expected to be the areas of the Bay where
                    shortnose sturgeon may be present in the summer months (U.S. EPA 2003c).
                    Despite the use of the best available scientific and commercial data, NOAA Fisheries
                    cannot quantify the precise number of fish that are likely to be taken. Because both
                    the distribution of shortnose sturgeon throughout the Bay and the numbers of fish
                    that are likely to be in an area at any one time are highly variable, and because inci-
                    dental take is indirect and likely to occur from effects to habitat, the amount of take
                    resulting from harassment is difficult,  if not  impossible, to estimate.  In addition,
                    because shortnose sturgeon are aquatic species who spend the majority of their time
                    on the bottom and because shortnose sturgeon are highly mobile while foraging in
                    the summer months, the likelihood of discovering take attributable to this proposed
                    action is very limited. In such circumstances, NOAA Fisheries uses  a surrogate to
                    estimate the extent of take. The  surrogate must be rationally connected to the taking
                    and provide an  obvious threshold of exempted take which, if exceeded, provides a
                    basis for reinitiating consultation. For this proposed action, the spatial and temporal
                    extent of the area failing to meet dissolved oxygen standards protective of shortnose
                    sturgeon provides a surrogate for estimating the amount of incidental take.

                    EXTENT OF TAKE FROM 2004-2009

                    Using data provided by EPA, the extent  of take occurring from the time of the adop-
                    tion of the guidance3  could be estimated.  As  habitat conditions in the Bay  are
                    expected to improve over time as interim measures are achieved before the 2010
                    goals are met, it is reasonable to assume  that this surrogate level of take will decrease
                    3 Adoption of the guidance by the states and District of Columbia and approval by EPA is expected to
                     occur in 2004 and 2005.
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over time. Using the EPA model of dissolved oxygen conditions  in 2000 in the
bottom layer of habitat that was rated "tolerate" (see above) the following conditions
were observed:
                      Percent of area failing to meet 5mg liter1  monthly
Designated Use	average 2004-2009 (see U.S. EPA 2003c)	
Open Water            9.2
Deep Water            47.3
Deep Channel          78.3

Each year in the summer months, no more than the above percentages of the partic-
ular designated use areas were expected to fail to  meet a 5 mg  liter1 monthly
average dissolved oxygen level between 2004 and 2009. The  extent of take would be
limited to those percentages of each designated use area in the Bay. As such, for the
period  2004 through 2009, NOAA Fisheries would consider take to  have  been
exceeded when upon review of the annual monitoring data, NOAA Fisheries was
able to determine that for the preceding summer, the  dissolved oxygen data for any
30 days during the June 1-September 30 time frame  indicate that any of the desig-
nated use area failed to meet the above goals.

EXTENT OF TAKE IN 2010 AND BEYOND

Using the EPA model, the extent of take anticipated in 2010 and  beyond can  be
determined.  Using the  EPA model of dissolved oxygen  conditions anticipated
when the 2010 nutrient and sediment reduction goals were met and using the bottom
layer of habitat that is rated "tolerate" (see above)  the following conditions  were
anticipated:

                      Percent of area failing to meet 5mg liter1  monthly
Designated Use	average 2010 and  beyond (see U.S. EPA 2003c)	
Open Water            5.7
Deep Water            33.0
Deep Channel          65.9

As conditions were expected to be improving over time, no more  than the above
percentages of the particular habitats were expected to fail to meet a 5mg liter1
monthly average dissolved oxygen level in 2010 and beyond. As such, for the period
of 2010 and beyond, NOAA Fisheries will consider take to have  been exceeded
when upon review of the annual monitoring data, NOAA Fisheries was able to deter-
mine that for the preceding summer, the dissolved  oxygen data for any 30  days
during the June 1-September 30 time frame indicate  that any of the designated use
area failed to meet the above goals.


         REASONABLE  AND  PRUDENT MEASURES

Reasonable and prudent measures are those measures necessary and appropriate to
minimize incidental take of a listed species. For this particular action, however, it is
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24
                    not possible  to design reasonable and prudent measures that are necessary and
                    appropriate to minimize take, because the best available science has demonstrated
                    that the EPA criteria are the limit of feasibility based on current technology. The
                    purpose of the reasonable and prudent measure below is to monitor environmental
                    conditions in the Bay and to monitor the level of take associated with this action. In
                    order to monitor the level of incidental take, monitoring of dissolved oxygen and
                    accompanying temperature conditions in the Bay must be completed each summer.
                    In order to be exempt from the prohibitions of section 9 of the ESA,  the EPA must
                    comply with the following  terms  and conditions, which implement the reasonable
                    and prudent measure  described above and outline the required reporting require-
                    ments. These terms and conditions are non-discretionary.
                    1. By April 1 of each year (beginning in 2005), EPA shall provide an annual report
                       to NOAA Fisheries outlining  the progress towards nutrient and sediment load
                       reductions, including a  discussion of any best  management practices or other
                       strategies put in place to achieve the target nutrient and sediment load reductions.
                    2. EPA shall continue  using the results of the Chesapeake Bay Interpolator to
                       extrapolate measured data to  assess water quality conditions in the  Bay. The
                       Chesapeake  Bay Interpolator extrapolates   water quality  concentrations
                       throughout the  Chesapeake Bay and/or tributary rivers from water quality meas-
                       ured at point locations. The purpose of the Interpolator is to assess water quality
                       concentrations  at all  locations in the  3-dimensional water volume or as a 2-
                       dimensional layer. The  results from the Interpolator will be used by EPA to
                       develop an annual report (see below).
                    3. By April 1 of each year (beginning in 2005), EPA shall provide an annual report
                       to NOAA Fisheries on water quality conditions in the Bay, including tempera-
                       ture, dissolved  oxygen, depth and salinity. The data provided will  express actual
                       monitoring data in volumetric figures (cubic  kilometers)  as  well as bottom
                       habitat area (squared kilometers) extrapolated from the Chesapeake Bay Inter-
                       polator. This report should include information on the percent of each designated
                       use that failed to meet the 5mg liter"1 monthly average for June, July, August and
                       September of the preceding year.
                    By April 30, 2010, EPA shall submit a report  to  NOAA Fisheries assessing the
                    dissolved oxygen condition in the Bay which highlights the dissolved oxygen condi-
                    tions in the Bay during the June 1-September 30 time frame for each of the years
                    2004 through 2009. In this report, EPA will determine the percent of each designated
                    use that failed to attain a 5mg liter"1 monthly average. Included in this report will be
                    an analysis of the likely causes of failures (i.e., weather events, point  sources).
                                             LITERATURE  CITED
                    NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service. 2004. National Marine Fisheries Service Endan-
                    gered Species Act Biological Opinion—Ambient Water Quality  Criteria for Dissolved
  chapter iv  •  Key Findings Published in the NOAA ESA Shortnose Sturgeon Biological Opinion

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Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
F/NER/2003/00961. Northeast Region, Gloucester, Massachusetts.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003a. Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved
Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
EPA 903-R-03-002. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003b. Biological Evaluation for the Recommended
Ambient Water Quality Criteria and Designated Uses for the Chesapeake Bay and its Tidal
Waters Under the Clean Water Act Section 117. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office,
Annapolis, Maryland.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003c. Unpublished Analysis of Shortnose Sturgeon
Habitat Quality Preferences under Monitoring Program Observed data from 1985-1994 and
Water Quality Modeling Estimated Water Quality Conditions for 2010. Region III Chesa-
peake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
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                          chapter
          Guidance for Attainment
      Assessment of  Instantaneous
        Minimum  and  7-Day  Mean
          Dissolved  Oxygen  Criteria
                          BACKGROUND

  As published in the Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water
  Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries (U.S.
  EPA 2003), it is accepted that concentration minima need to be defined, which if
  exceeded for some defined (short) duration result in lethal or other adverse effects.
  Instantaneous minimum criteria have been derived and published for protection of
  each of the five tidal water designated uses. A 1-day mean dissolved oxygen crite-
  rion was also determined to  be necessary for the protection of the deep-water
  designated use. In addition, a 7-day mean criterion has been derived for protection
  of the  open-water designated use (U.S. EPA 2003).

  However, it is also acknowledged that assessing the attainment status of these criteria
  requires data collections at temporal and spatial scales that are simply not practicable
  nor sustainable across all Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributary waters. To address this
  issue, there are ongoing efforts to develop statistical methods to estimate attainment
  of these dissolved oxygen criteria using a synthesis of: 1) seasonal and inter-annual
  patterns found in the long term, low-frequency, spatially-limited monitoring data; 2)
  the short-term patterns of temporal variability found in high-frequency, spatially
  uneven 'buoy' data; and 3) the small-interval patterns of variability observed in data
  records generated through the 'data-flow' and  'scan-fish' sampling devices.
                        CURRENT STATUS

  These methods are in the exploratory and trial application phases. However, we can
  still address the question of how best to assess attainment of these criteria given the
  almost two-decade record of dissolved oxygen concentrations for Chesapeake Bay
  tidal waters. First, there are some Chesapeake Bay Program segments, such as the
  deep-channel  mid-Chesapeake Bay mainstem segments and the lower Potomac

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28
                    River, whose hypoxic/anoxic conditions are of long standing and whose dynamics
                    are well enough understood to be modeled mathematically and relatively precisely.
                    There are other segments that have long term monthly and twice monthly dissolved
                    oxygen concentration records whose station coverage is considered to represent the
                    whole segment adequately or at least areas most likely to  have dissolved oxygen
                    concentrations below saturation levels. The Chesapeake Bay Program partners have
                    previously demonstrated (see Chesapeake Bay Dissolved Oxygen Goal for Restora-
                    tion of Living Resource Habitats; Jordan et al. 1992) that relatively good predictive
                    models can be developed for segments that suffer hypoxia at some regular frequency
                    and so far have demonstrated no long term trend in dissolved oxygen concentrations.
                    These models produce estimates of the percent of time the segment depth is below
                    some  specified  concentration. These monitoring data-based models  reflect only
                    daytime measurements, but can be enhanced (and validated) by the in-situ contin-
                    uous records from the buoy deployments.

                    The remaining segments not characterized above are those segments where the long-
                    term fixed monitoring stations, sampled on a monthly to twice-monthly basis, do not
                    well represent  dissolved oxygen conditions elsewhere in the segment. Typically
                    these segments have a moderately deep channel with flanking nearshore areas of
                    significant size. In these  segments, tidal pulses from downstream, inflows from
                    upstream, and local land-based influences vary in their dominance, and the current
                    long-term water quality monitoring data do not capture ephemeral events or the near-
                    shore conditions very well. The new shallow water monitoring component of the
                    larger Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program is designed to generate
                    the  additional data necessary to assess criteria attainment in these segments. The
                    Chesapeake Bay Program partners are  now accumulating such data for a growing
                    number of Chesapeake Bay Program segments.
                          ASSESSMENT  OF INSTANTANEOUS MINIMUM
                     CRITERIA ATTAINMENT  FROM  MONTHLY MEAN DATA

                    By overlaying information from the buoy data about diurnal variability  and the
                    frequency of common hypoxic events, such as those caused by phytoplankton bloom
                    respiration and decay, pycnocline tilting, etc., on top of the long-term fixed-station
                    monitoring  data record, we can better understand the relationship between attain-
                    ment/non-attainment of the 30-day mean and instantaneous minimum criteria. The
                    reader should keep several things in mind. The temporal record of the long-term,
                    fixed-station monitoring program is considered "low-frequency" relative to the high
                    frequency record of the "continuous" data record from the buoy deployments. The
                    available continuous records chronicle a few days to months of a single year. Each
                    measurement  is closely related  to the previous  and next measurement, providing a
                    detailed record of the dissolved oxygen response to the specific conditions of that
                    period. These buoy data records are measuring  conditions at a single fixed  point in
                    the water column, usually about  a meter off the bottom in these data sets. The sensors
  chapter v •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

-------
                                                                                                  29
   are fixed, but the water mass moves past, back and forth with the tide and the various
   complexities of the local riverine and estuarine circulation. The majority of the avail-
   able  buoy data were collected  through buoy deployments that were  sited using
   stratified random design considerations or to answer location-specific questions, but
   not directly to address the relationship between instantaneous minimum and monthly
   mean concentrations.
   In contrast, the long term monitoring program includes a vast network of stations
   sited specifically to represent overall water quality conditions of the 78 Chesapeake
   Bay Program segments. The low-frequency monitoring record captures a snapshot of
   conditions only once or twice a month, but that series of snapshots now extends over
   an 19-year period and is ongoing. Each snapshot consists of synoptic measurements
   forming a relatively dense three-dimensional spatial data grid. The grid is formed
   horizontally by the network of mainstem and tidal tributary monitoring stations and
   vertically by the dissolved oxygen profiles measured at 1- to 2-meter intervals from
   water column surface to bottom water-sediment interface. A single summer 'snap-
   shot  cruise' typically  includes over a thousand individual  dissolved  oxygen
   concentration measurements.

   REFERENCE POINTS WITH RESPECT TO  DEPTH

   Dissolved oxygen  levels are strongly related to depth, bathymetry, and flow and
   circulation patterns. Table V-l provides information that helps to decide how repre-
   sentative the long-term fixed-station monitoring data and the continuous buoy data
   records are of their respective Chesapeake Bay Program segment. Table V-l presents
   segment volume, the depth of the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Program moni-
   toring station(s) in the segment, and the segment-wide bottom depth distribution i.e.,
   maximum depth, the depth encompassing 90 percent, 75 percent, 50 percent (the
   median) and 25 percent of the bottom depths, as well as the minimum depth.

   DATA ASSEMBLAGE AND  MANIPULATION

   Table V-2 lists the  147  continuous buoy data sets available for analysis through the
   Chesapeake Information Management System (partner network of Chesapeake Bay
   data and information servers), latitude/longitude location information, the time interval
   between measurements,  the total duration of deployment, water depth and depth of the
   sensor at the  site and in what depth category the sensor depth falls, based on the depth
   distributions listed in Table V-l. The list of data sets has  been categorized according to
   Chesapeake Bay Program segment so that it is obvious which segments have or do not
   have such high frequency information available for evaluating and establishing the 30-
   day mean and instantaneous minimum concentration relationship.
chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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36
                    DESIGNATED USE ASSIGNMENTS

                    Both the low frequency long-term fixed station and the continuous buoy data records
                    were assessed relative to the published Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen criteria.
                    The criteria are specific to different designated uses and, therefore, seasons (U.S.
                    EPA 2003).  With very few exceptions, the  buoy data currently available were
                    summer deployments (June-September). One exception begins at the end of April;
                    this one and a couple of other deployments extend through October, and one extends
                    to November.

                    Each data record was assigned to a designated use within a Chesapeake Bay Program
                    segment based on following method. Using the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Moni-
                    toring Program data,  the depth of the upper and lower pycnoclines, if any, were
                    calculated for each station for each cruise date and the segment averages  for the
                    month/year were determined. These segment-averaged pycnocline depths were then
                    merged by corresponding dates with the buoy sensor depths in those segments where
                    deep-water and deep-channel designated uses apply. It is important to remember that
                    pycnocline depths may be fairly stable in some areas, but changeable and ephemeral
                    in others, even within the same segment. An average pycnocline depth for the month
                    may have a lot of variability around it, and thus the designated use assignments for
                    some buoy data records may not be correct.  Where  the buoy dissolved oxygen
                    concentrations suggested an incorrect assignment, the monitoring data at stations and
                    dates nearest in time and space to the buoy deployment were examined in detail and
                    any appropriate changes to the designated use assignment were made accordingly.

                    FINDINGS
                    Day/Night Differences In Dissolved Oxygen Concentration

                    A commonly expressed concern about the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Moni-
                    toring Program's dissolved oxygen data is that they reflect daytime dissolved oxygen
                    levels, the time period when active photosynthesis by algae, and consequent gener-
                    ation and  introduction of new oxygen  into the water column, may mask lower
                    nighttime concentrations. To address this concern, the buoy data were partitioned
                    into day (defined as 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM) and night  (defined as after 5:00 PM to
                    before 9:00 AM) periods and summarized. Table V-3 provides the following statis-
                    tics for the day and night periods: minimum concentration, the concentration of the
                    lowest  1 percent of measurements, the lowest 10 percent, the median, mean, standard
                    deviation,  and  coefficient of variation, separately for  day  and  night periods  each
                    month, and the number of measurements taken in that month.

                    Table V-4 pools all the continuous buoy  data for a station's designated use to show
                    average day/night differences at each site. The difference between the daytime mean,
                    minimum, 1 percent,  etc. and the equivalent nighttime statistic was computed for
                    each date of deployment and the means of the daily day-night differences are shown
                    in the table (difference = daytime concentration minus nighttime concentration).
  chapter v •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                                         37


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46
                    With some clear exceptions, the day-night concentration differences in these buoy
                    data are small. Back River (segment BACOH), a tidal river known to be stressed by
                    discharges  from a large urban sewage treatment facility, exhibits the largest day-
                    night difference in mean and median concentrations: -2.24 mg liter"1 and -4.51 mg
                    liter"1,  respectively (Table V-4). Note that here the nighttime concentration is higher
                    than during the daytime, which  seems counterintuitive. But,  in fact, the average
                    day/night difference in the daily means and medians is almost always negative in this
                    table. A buoy site in the lower Potomac River (POTMH) and one in upper Potomac
                    River (POTTF) showed day-night differences greater than 1 mg liter"1 in the daily
                    mean or median or both, but all other sites showed differences less than 1 mg liter"1.

                    The average day-night  differences in  the daily minimum concentration and lowest
                    1 percent value were similarly generally small, but with more  sites exhibiting day-
                    night differences  in excess of 1 mg liter"1: mesohaline Patapsco  River  (PATMH),
                    tidal fresh  (POTTF) and mesohaline  (POTMH) Potomac River, tidal fresh  James
                    River  (JAMTF),  middle central and lower western mainstem Chesapeake Bay
                    segments CB4MH  and CB6PH, respectively, and Tangier Sound  (TANMH). In
                    contrast to the findings for the daily mean and median, the concentration minima and
                    lowest  1  percent were generally higher in the daytime than at night.

                    30-Day Mean and Instantaneous Minimum Criteria Attainment

                    Table V-5  shows how  the continuous dissolved oxygen measurements stack up
                    against the corresponding  designated use  dissolved oxygen criteria. The dissolved
                    oxygen criteria are to be assessed for each segment/designated use separately. Thus,
                    in this  analysis, the day and night measurements are pooled and the mean, 1 percent
                    concentration and other statistics are calculated within month, if the data record
                    extends over multiple months. Asterisks flag the continuous buoy data records where
                    the 30-day mean criterion is not achieved (i.e., monthly mean dissolved oxygen
                    concentration is lower than the applicable criterion) or where the measured 1 percent
                    dissolved oxygen concentration is lower than the instantaneous minimum criterion.

                    Looking down the columns in Table V-5 labeled "30-day Mean" and "Instantaneous
                    Minimum" under the heading "Criterion Not Achieved", it can be seen frequently
                    that if the 30-day mean criterion was achieved, the instantaneous minimum criterion
                    was also achieved. Conversely, if the 30-day mean criterion was not achieved, the
                    instantaneous  minimum criterion also was not  achieved. Further, if  only  one
                    dissolved oxygen criterion was not achieved, then it was usually the instantaneous
                    minimum criterion that was not achieved.

                    Table V-6 summarizes the criteria achieved/not achieved rate by segment and desig-
                    nated use and Table V-7 pools the Table  V-6 findings by designated use. For the
                    open-water designated use, in 80  out of 94 cases (~85 percent), if the 30-day mean
                    criterion was achieved/not achieved, then the same was the case  for the instantaneous
                    minimum criterion. In deep-water designated use habitats, this condition was true in
                    15  out  of 26 cases (~57 percent). The diversity of buoys deployed in deep-channel
                    designated use habitats is too small for drawing very specific conclusions at this time.

  chapter v  • Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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chapter v •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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52
                    Predicting the Lowest 1  Percent Concentration From The Mean

                    Down the left side of Figure V-l are plots  of the 1 percent measured dissolved
                    oxygen  concentration versus the measured monthly mean concentration for each
                    designated use (all buoy records parsed by month and pooled within designated use).
                    Down the right side of Figure V-l are plots of the same sets of measurements only
                    for an individual segment, CB4MH as an example, where multiple buoys or records
                    including multiple months were available. Both solid circles and open triangles are
                    displayed on the plots. The circles are the observed 1 percent concentration data; the
                    triangles are concentrations predicted by a simple regression model including the
                    observed monthly mean  and the coefficient of variation.  In these examples, the
                    prediction model does pretty well because  of the relative large number of observa-
                    tions  and thus the  very good  estimate  of the  monthly mean and  1  percent
                    concentrations, as well as the close relationship of each observation to the next. As
                    the number of available continuous buoy data records increases for a wider array of
                    segments and designated uses, the Chesapeake Bay Program partners should be in a
                    position to develop a more generalized model for designated uses by segment that
                    would enable the user to predict the 1 percent concentration from the monthly means
                    obtained from the long-term  fixed-station monitoring data.

                    One  question still under investigation is how well those observed monthly means
                    compare to the means obtained from the continuous buoy data records. Figure V-2,
                    which shows the fixed station twice monthly monitoring  data and semi-continuous
                    buoy data plotted together, provides some current insights into answering this ques-
                    tion. Down the  left  side of  Figure V-2 are plots  of the observed  1  percent
                    concentrations versus  observed  monthly mean dissolved  oxygen  concentrations
                    (June-September) obtained from fixed station monitoring  data and plotted for open-
                    water, deep-water and deep-channel designated  uses in segment CB4MH. Down the
                    right side of Figure V-2 are the plots from the continuous buoy data for CB4MH. The
                    vertical and  horizontal reference lines cutting each graph  into 4 quadrants represent
                    the 30-day mean and instantaneous minimum dissolved oxygen criteria concentra-
                    tions. Again, a regression model  using the  mean and coefficient of variation of the
                    monitoring data has been used to predict the  1 percent concentration. As illustrated
                    in Figure V-l,  solid circles represent the observed concentrations and open triangles
                    represent the predicted concentrations.  As expected from  the fixed station moni-
                    toring data, the fit of predicted to observed is not as tight as with the buoy data. These
                    regression models can be improved with the addition of more explanatory variables.
                    The point is that in some, possibly many segments,  the relationship of the monthly
                    mean with the  1 percent concentration evidenced in monitoring data is similar to that
                    found in the buoy data records. The regression  models  output illustrated in Figures
                    V-l and V-2 can be improved by including  other explanatory variables to better
                    predict the variability detected and quantified in the buoys.

                    Figure V-3 shows similar plots of the  1  percent concentration versus the monthly
                    mean obtained from monitoring data in various other example segments. Note how
                    tight the relationship is in segment BOHOH (Bohemia River)  in contrast to the
  chapter v • Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                                            53
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   Figure V-l.  Plots of monthly mean dissolved oxygen concentration (mg liter1) versus the 1 percentile dissolved
   oxygen concentration as measured by sensors on individual buoys.  Plots on left side show patterns of dissolved
   oxygen concentration data pooled across Chesapeake Bay Program  segments within open-water, deep-water and
   deep-channel uses. Plots on the right side show patterns of dissolved oxygen concentration data from middle cen-
   tral Chesapeake Bay, segment CB4MH.  Circles are observed dissolved oxygen concentration data; open triangles are
   dissolved oxygen concentrations predicted by the regression model: 1 percent dissolved oxygen concentration as a
   function of monthly mean dissolved oxygen and the coefficient of variation.

   Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
   http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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 54
                CB4MH  Open-Water
                  Monitoring Data
        CB4MH Open-Water
             Buoy Data
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                  Monitoring Data
        CB4MH Deep-Water
             Buoy Data
        -2    0     2     4     6     8     10

            Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
      0     2     4     6     8     10

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               CB4MH  Deep-Channel
                  Monitoring Data
       CB4MH  Deep-Channel
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        -2    0     2     4     6     3     10     12

            Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
-2    o     2     4     e     8     10
    Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
Figure V-2.  Plots of monthly mean dissolved oxygen concentration (mg liter1) versus the 1  percentile dissolved
oxygen concentration  in middle central Chesapeake Bay, segment CB4MH.  Plots on left side  show the pattern of
observed dissolved oxygen concentration data from the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program
(May-September 1985-2003). Plots on right side show observed dissolved oxygen data from segment CB4MH as
measured during various buoy deployments. Circles are observed dissolved  oxygen concentrations; open triangles
are dissolved oxygen concentrations predicted by the regression model: 1 percent dissolved oxygen concentration
as a function of monthly mean dissolved oxygen concentration and coefficient of variation.

Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
   chapter v •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                     CB1TF Open— Water
00 O F5
            0
           -2
             -2     0     2     4     6     8     10

                 Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
                     CB7PH Open -Water
             -20     2     4     6     8     10     12

                 Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
                    MAGMH Open -Water
                                          * J^I A
                                            ••
             -20     2     4     6     8     10     12

                 Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
                                                                                                             55
       BOHOH  Open -Water
      o     2     4     6     s     10
    Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
        CB7PH Deep -Water
                                                                                 a
-2    0     2     4     6     8     10     12

    Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
        YRKPH Deep -Water
-2    0     2     4     6     8     10     12

    Monthly Mean Dissolved Oxygen Concentration
   Figure V-3. Plots of monthly mean ambient dissolved oxygen concentration versus the one percentile dissolved
   oxygen concentrations in several example Chesapeake Bay Program segments: the northern Chesapeake Bay
   (CB1TF),  Bohemia River (BOHOH), open-water and deep-water lower eastern Chesapeake Bay (CB7PH), Magothy
   River (MAGMH) and the lower York River (YRKPH). These graphics show patterns of dissolved oxygen data from the
   Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program from May-September 1985-2003. Circles are observed dissolved
   oxygen concentration data; open triangles are dissolved oxygen concentrations  predicted by the regression model:
   1 percent dissolved oxygen concentration as a function of monthly mean dissolved oxygen concentration  and
   coefficient of variation.
   Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
   http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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   56
                       scatter of points in the plot for segment MAGMH (Magothy River), indicating large
                       between-segment differences in variability and predictability.

                       The plots in Figure V-3 illustrate the differences among segments in their patterns of
                       criteria non-achievement. The four quadrants bounded by the reference lines in the
                       plots represent the four possible results from a two-criteria achievement assessment.
                       Let the quadrants be numbered clockwise 1 through 4, beginning  with the upper
                       right hand quadrant. Any data points in quadrant 1 achieve both the 30-day mean and
                       instantaneous minimum criteria. Data points in quadrant 2 achieve the 30-day mean
                       criterion, but do not achieve the instantaneous minimum criterion. Data points in
                       quadrant 3  do  not achieve both the  30-day  mean and instantaneous  minimum
                       criteria. Data points in quadrant 4 achieve the instantaneous minimum criterion, but
                       do not achieve the 30-day mean criterion.  In a fully restored Chesapeake Bay, one
                       would expect that most  data points would  fall in quadrant 1. In impaired segments,
                       where low dissolved oxygen conditions are frequent or chronic, one would expect
                       most data points to  fall in quadrant 3. In segments where low dissolved oxygen
                       events are episodic, ranging from occasional to frequent, one would expect a dense
                       population of data points in quadrant 2. And, where dissolved oxygen concentrations
                       are  chronically  reduced, but really  low dissolved oxygen concentrations are rare,
                       then one would expect some data points in quadrant 4.

                       Providing plots such as those presented in Figure V-3  for each designated use for
                       every segment is impractical for this document. Instead, Table V-8 shows the number
                       of points in a representative data set that would be in each quadrant, if the data were
                       plotted as in Figure V-3 using the summer only data from a recent  10-year period:
                       June-September, 1993-2002.

                       There are 66 segments that have only open-water designated uses. A total of 28 of
                       these segments achieve  both the 30-day mean and instantaneous minimum criteria,
                       i.e., which have all their data points in quadrant 1 and none or only one data point in
                       the other quadrants. These segments are marked with a  single asterisk in Table V-8.
                       In these open-water  only segments, assessment of attainment of the instantaneous
                       minimum criterion can be directly based on assessment of attainment of the 30-day
                       mean criterion (Table V-9).

                       A total of 18  segments with only open-water designated uses had the vast majority
                       (greater than two-thirds) of their data points in either quadrant 1 or quadrant 3. These
                       segments are marked with double asterisks in Table V-8. The assessment of attain-
                       ment of the instantaneous minimum criterion can be directly based on assessment of
                       attainment of the 30-day mean criterion in these segments (Table V-9).

                       In five  segments with only open-water designated uses there were sufficient  data
                       points in quadrant 2 indicating a much higher occurrence where the 30-day mean
                       criterion was achieved yet the instantaneous minimum criterion was not achieved.
                       These segments are marked with a single dash in  Table V-8. These five segments
                       were: upper Chesapeake Bay (CB2OH), Magothy River (MAGMH),  Severn River
                       (SEVMH), Mobjack Bay  (MOBPH) and Little Choptank River (LCHMH). Users
chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                                       57
Table V-8.  Characterization of the Chesapeake Bay Program segments based on
            occupied quadrants in a plot of the 1 percent dissolved oxygen concentration
            versus observed monthly mean dissolved oxygen concentration1.
Number of Data Points By Quadrant by Designated Use
CBP
Segment
CB1TF*
CB2OH-
CB3MH
CB4MH
CB5MH
CB6PH
CB7PH
CB8PH*
BSHOH*
GUNOH**
MIDOH*
BACOH**
PATMH
MAGMH-
SEVMH-
SOUMH**
RHDMH**
WSTMH**
PAXTF*
WBRTF*
PAXOH**
PAXMH
POTTF*
PISTF**
MATTF*
POTOH*
POTMH
RPPTF*
RPPOH*
RPPMH
CRRMH**
PIAMH**
MPNTF
MPNOH
PMKTF
PMKOH
YRKMH**
YRKPH**
MOBPH-
JMSTF*
APPTF*
JMSOH*
CHKOH*
JMSMH*
JMSPH*
WBEMH**
SBEMH
EBEMH
LAFMH**
ELIPH**
NORTF*
C&DOH*
Open-Water
1
39
12
38
35
36
31
36
39
37
38
40
36
40
8
7
3
37
28
40
40
31
25
39
38
39
39
39
39
39
35
20
38
29
25
26
22
30
35
25
40
39
40
40
40
39
31
22
25
17
36
40
40
2
0
19
2
5
4
9
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
16
9
2
0
3
0
0
0
15
1
2
1
1
1
0
0
4
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
16
19
31
1
5
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
11
0
0
0
3
0
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
2
0
3
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
4
0
0
4
3
1
3
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
8
13
10
17
8
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
7
13
12
3
1
0
0
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 chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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   58
                            Table V-8 (continued).  Characterization of the Chesapeake Bay Program segments
                                                         based on occupied quadrants in a plot of the 1 percent dis-
                                                         solved oxygen  concentration versus observed  monthly mean
                                                         dissolved oxygen concentration1 .
Number of Data Points By Quadrant by Designated Use
CBP
Segment
BOHOH*
ELKOH*
SASOH*
CHSOH*
CHSMH
EASMH
CHOOH**
CHOMH2**
CHOMH1**
LCHMH-
FSBMH*
NANTF**
NANMH*
WICMH
MANMH*
BIGMH*
POCTF
POCMH*
TANMH**
Open-Water Deep-Water
1
39
39
39
39
37
39
34
26
33
4
36
35
38
28
37
38
18
40
27
2
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
2
6
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
3
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
9
1
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
5
4 1234
1
0
1
1
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6
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1
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                            'Quad 1: both 30-day mean and instantaneous minimum criteria achieved; quad 2: 30-day mean criterion
                            achieved, instantaneous minimum criterion not achieved; quad 3: both 30-day mean and instantaneous minimum
                            criteria not achieved; quad 4: 30-day mean criterion not achieved, instantaneous minimum criterion achieved.
                            Based on data from the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program twice monthly cruises between June
                            and September, 1993 through 2002 (most recent 10 years).

                            Single asterisk (*): Open-water use only segment with all data points in quadrant 1 and none or only one data
                            point in the other three quadrants.

                            Double asterisk (**): Open-water use only segment with a vast majority of data points (greater than two-thirds)
                            in either quadrant 1 or quadrant 3.

                            Single dash(-): Open-water use only segment with sufficient data points in quadrant 2 indicating a much higher
                            occurrence where the 30-day mean criterion was achieved yet the instantaneous minimum criterion was not
                            achieved.

                            Boldface type: Open-water use only segment with a large number of data points in quadrant 1 and quadrant 4 and
                            none or very few data points in the other two quadrants.

                            Source:  Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
                            http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
chapter v  •   Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved  Oxygen Criteria

-------
                                                                                                                       59
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chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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chapter v  •   Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                                 63
   assessing attainment of 30-day mean and instantaneous minimum dissolved oxygen
   criteria within these five segments are cautioned to not automatically assume attain-
   ment of the 30-day mean criterion reflects attainment of the instantaneous minimum
   criterion (Table V-9). Site-specific buoy deployments may be necessary to either
   better quantify a relationship  or assess  attainment using both  low-  and high-
   frequency data sources.

   Seven segments with only open-water designated uses had a large number of data
   points in quadrant 1 (both criteria were achieved) and in quadrant 4 (instantaneous
   minimum criterion achieved, but the 30-day mean criterion not achieved) and none
   or very few data points in other quadrants were marked in bold typeface in Table V-
   8. These seven segments  were: upper (MPNTF) and lower (MPNOH) Mattaponi,
   upper (PMKTF)  and lower (PMKOH) Pamunkey River, Eastern Branch Elizabeth
   River (EBEMH), Wicomico River (WICMH), and upper Pocomoke River (POCTF.)

   The segments in the Pamunkey and Mattaponi rivers (segments PMKTF, PMKOH
   and MPNTF, MPNOH, respectively) are known to be strongly influenced by rela-
   tively large expanses of fringing wetlands along the entire length of both tidal rivers.
   The Wicomico River (WICMH) and upper Pocomoke River (POCTF) also have
   large areas of tidal wetlands along particular reaches of these two rivers. The natural
   influences of extensive fringing tidal wetlands systems, described in more detail in
   Chapter 6, are the likely reason for why the 30-day mean/instantaneous minimum
   relationship does not fully apply to these seven segments. More site specific evalua-
   tion of the  data and conditions within the Eastern Branch of the Elizabeth River
   (EBEMH) is required to understand what's happening in this tidal system.

   Users assessing  attainment of the 30-day  mean and  instantaneous minimum
   dissolved oxygen criteria within these seven segments are cautioned not to automat-
   ically assume that attainment of the 30-day mean criterion reflects attainment of the
   instantaneous minimum criterion (Table V-9). Site-specific buoy deployments may
   be necessary either to better quantify a relationship or assess attainment using both
   low- and high-frequency data sources.

   For the remaining seven segments with only open-water designated uses, there were
   insufficient buoy data available to assess  whether  attainment of the 30-day mean
   criterion  reflected attainment  of the instantaneous  minimum criterion.  These
   segments are marked with a "N/D" in Table V-9.

   Of the thirteen segments  with deep-water or deep-water and deep-channel  desig-
   nated uses, eleven of the segments had the  vast majority (greater than two-thirds) of
   their open-water designated use  data points in quadrant 1 (Table V-8), directly
   supporting the assessment of attainment  of the instantaneous minimum criterion
   directly based  on assessment of attainment of the  30-day mean criterion in these
   segments (Table V-9). Users assessing attainment of the 30-day mean and instanta-
   neous  minimum dissolved oxygen criteria  within  the lower  Patuxent  River
   (PAXMH) and Southern  Branch  Elizabeth River (SBEMH) are cautioned not to
   automatically assume that attainment of the 30-day mean criterion reflects attain-
   ment of the instantaneous minimum criterion.
chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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64
                    Ten of these thirteen segments with deep-water or deep-water and deep-channel
                    designated uses also showed evidence of a strong relationship between achieved/not
                    achieved in the assessment of the instantaneous minimum using monthly mean data
                    for the deep-water and/or deep channel designated uses (Table V-8). These segments
                    were: middle central Chesapeake Bay (CB4MH), western lower Chesapeake Bay
                    (CB6PH), eastern lower Chesapeake Bay (CB7PH), Patapsco River (PATMH), lower
                    Potomac River  (POTMH)  [deep-channel use only],  lower Rappahannock River
                    (RPPMH)  [deep-channel use only], lower York River (YRKPH), Southern Branch
                    Elizabeth River (SBEMH), lower Chester  River (CSHMH),  and Eastern Bay
                    (EASMH)  [deep channel use only] (Table V-9).
                    In the cases of the upper central Chesapeake Bay (CB3MH), lower central Chesa-
                    peake Bay (CB5MH),  lower  Patuxent River (PAXMH),  lower Potomac River
                    (POTMH)  [deep-water use only], lower Rappahannock River (RPPMH) [deep-water
                    use only] and Eastern Bay (EASMH) [deep-water use only] there are sufficient data
                    points in quadrant 2 indicating a higher occurrence where the 30-day mean criteria
                    were achieved yet the instantaneous minimum criteria were not achieved in deep-
                    water and/or deep-channel  designated use  habitats (Table V-8).  Users  assessing
                    attainment of 30-day mean and instantaneous minimum  dissolved oxygen criteria
                    within these seven  segments and their respective deep-water/deep channel desig-
                    nated uses  are cautioned not to automatically assume that attainment of the 30-day
                    mean criterion reflects attainment of the instantaneous minimum dissolved oxygen
                    criterion (Table V-9). Site-specific buoy deployments may be necessary  either to
                    better quantify  a relationship or  assess attainment  using both  low- and high-
                    frequency data sources.
                    ASSESSMENT OF  7-DAY MEAN  CRITERIA ATTAINMENT
                                     FROM MONTHLY MEAN  DATA
                    The open-water designated use habitats are also subject to a 7-day mean criterion.
                    The continuous buoy data were examined to look for relationships between the 30-
                    day mean and the 7-day mean values. Buoy data records with durations over 14 days
                    (at least two 7-day periods) were examined. Figure V-4 shows plots of the sequen-
                    tial as opposed to a rolling series of 7-day means versus the 30-day mean for the
                    more limited number of data records that were available. There is more scatter in
                    these relationships than in the 30-day mean versus instantaneous minimum relation-
                    ships. However, a significant majority of the data points are found in the first and
                    third quadrants, where the data points both achieve (quadrant 1) or both do not
                    achieve (quadrant 3) the 30-day mean and 7-day mean criteria. There is clearly a
                    strong relationship between achieving/not achieving of the 30-day mean and 7-day
                    mean criteria. The remaining data points tended to be in the second quadrant where
                    the data points do not achieve the 30-day mean criterion but achieve the 7-day mean
                    criterion. Only 3 data points were located in the fourth quadrant.
  chapter v •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                                         65
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   Figure V-4. Plots of monthly mean dissolved oxygen concentration (mg liter 1) versus the 7-day mean dissolved
   oxygen concentration (mg liter1) in several example Chesapeake Bay  Program segments: open-water and deep-
   water middle central Chesapeake Bay (CB4MH), Mobjack Bay (MOBPH), lower Choptank River (CHOMH1), middle
   Potomac River (POTOH) and lower Patuxent River (PAXMH).
   Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database.
   http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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66
                                                    FINDINGS

                    For the majority of Chesapeake Bay Program segments and the designated use habi-
                    tats within those segments identified in Table V-9, dissolved oxygen concentration
                    data collected through monthly to twice monthly sampling at the Chesapeake Bay
                    Water Quality Monitoring Program fixed-stations can be used to assess attainment
                    of all higher frequency dissolved oxygen criteria components including the 7-day
                    mean, 1-day mean and instantaneous minimum criteria. For the remaining segments
                    and identified designated uses, further targeted buoys deployments are required to
                    more fully characterize and quantify the relationships between the monthly mean, 7-
                    day mean, 1-day mean and instantaneous minimum concentrations. Further work is
                    underway to factor in additional variables to strengthen the predictive relationships
                    between the 30-day mean, 7-day mean, 1-day mean  and instantaneous minimum
                    values and therefore, the assessment of attainment of the instantaneous minimum, 1-
                    day mean and 7-day mean criteria using monthly mean observations.
                                              LITERATURE  CITED
                    Jordan, S.J., C. Stenger, M. Olson, R. Batiuk and K. Mountford. 1992.  Chesapeake Bay
                    Dissolved Oxygen Goal for Restoration of Living Resource Habitats: A Synthesis of Living
                    Resource Requirements with Guidelines for Their Use in Evaluating Model Results and
                    Monitoring Information. CBP/TRS  88/93.  Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office,
                    Annapolis, Maryland.
                    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003. Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved
                    Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a. for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
                    EPA 903-R-03-002. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
  chapter v  •  Guidance for Attainment Assessment of Instantaneous Minimum and 7-Day Mean Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                      67
                    chapter
     Guidance  for Deriving  Site
      Specific Dissolved  Oxygen
   Criteria  for Assessing  Criteria
   Attainment of Naturally Low
             Dissolved Oxygen
Concentrations  in  Tidal Wetland
   Influenced  Estuarine Systems
Tidal wetlands are a valuable component of estuarine systems. In the Pamunkey
River, they have been shown to be net sinks for sediments (Neubauer et al. 2001) and
in most cases also serve to remove nutrients from overlying water  (Anderson et al.
1997). High rates of organic production, accompanied by high rates of respiration
(Neubauer et al. 2000), can significantly reduce dissolved oxygen and enhance
dissolved inorganic carbon levels both in sediment pore water and overlying water
in wetland systems. Another process that can deplete dissolved oxygen in wetland
sediments is nitrification, which converts ammonium to nitrite and nitrate (Tobias et
al. 2001).

Subsequent to publication of Ambient Water Quality for Dissolved Oxygen, Water
Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries (U.S.
EPA 2003a), Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and the District  of Columbia initiated
their respective processes  for adopting new and/or revising existing state water
quality standards. In so doing, Virginia requested support and guidance from EPA in
determining the appropriate dissolved oxygen criteria/designated use/attainment
procedures for the tidal Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers for addressing the naturally
lower ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations. Based on the scientific literature
and personal communications with Chesapeake Bay wetland scientists, EPA recog-
nized the need to explore accommodations for the special circumstances in these
tidal wetland influenced estuarine systems with respect to criteria levels, designated
uses and/or criteria attainment assessment.
                     chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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68
                          NATURAL CONDITIONS/FEATURES INDICATING
                             ROLE  OF WETLANDS IN LOW  DISSOLVED
                                      OXYGEN  CONCENTRATIONS

                    A future objective is to define more fully the natural conditions and physical features
                    in Chesapeake Bay tidal systems that would indicate that tidal wetlands are playing
                    a significant role in naturally reducing ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations.
                    Those natural conditions/features  have not yet been firmly established but Tables
                    VI-1 and VI-2 provide some key physical and water quality statistics for the tidal
                    Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers. Appendix A provides similar data for other tidal
                    fresh and oligohaline regions in the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries  for
                    comparison. Four natural conditions/features have been evaluated here to document
                    and help quantify the influence of tidal wetlands on the dissolved oxygen deficit
                    observed in the tidal Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers.

                    SURFACE TO  VOLUME  RATIOS/LARGE FRINGING WETLAND  AREAS

                    The tidal fresh and oligohaline segments in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers  are
                    among the smallest volume,  with a small surface to  volume ratio and large areas of
                    fringing  tidal marsh—1.5 times  larger than the tidal surface water area—relative to
                    other segments throughout the Bay's tidal waters (Table VI-1; Appendix A, Table A-l).

                    WATER QUALITY CONDITIONS

                    Table VI-2 gives some water quality statistics  for recent years. These years happen
                    to have had dry to record-dry summers and that low  flow regime should be borne in
                    mind. Severe low dissolved oxygen conditions (concentrations < 3 mg liter"1) are  not
                    obvious, but average dissolved oxygen concentrations, in both surface and bottom
                    waters, are about 2.5 to 3 mg liter1 below calculated oxygen saturation levels (Table
                    VI-2). Chlorophyll a concentrations are comparatively low, as are the total nitrogen
                    concentrations (with  the exception  of the  oligohaline Pamunkey River  segment
                    PMKOH). Phosphorus concentrations range from mid to  high compared to other
                    tidal systems.

                    The  dissolved oxygen deficit in  these two tidal systems is among  the highest
                    observed in the  Chesapeake Bay's tidal tributaries. The dissolved oxygen deficits
                    observed in the recent dry years (Table VI-2) are similar to those observed over  the
                    1985-2002 Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring program data record (Figure
                    VI-1). These  findings indicate  that the processes driving the recorded dissolved
                    oxygen deficits are due largely to  natural processes  internal to the tidal system and
                    not as much to  external nonpoint nutrient loadings (which  are naturally reduced
                    during the recent dry years due to  decreased surface runoff).
  chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                                        69
Table VI-1.  Some physical characteristics of the Mattaponi and Pamunkey tidal fresh (MPNTF and TMKTF,
             respectively) and oligohaline (MPNOH and PMKOH, respectively) segments: depth distribution
             based on depth of cells in the Chesapeake Bay Program volumetric interpolator, acres of fringing
             tidal wetlands, segment perimeter, segment water surface area, segment water column volume
             and segment water surface area:water column volume ratio.
Maximum
CBP Depth
Segment (meters)
MPNTF 12
MPNOH 15
PMKTF 15
PMKOH 18
75th
Percentile
(meters)
3
5
4
5
Median
Depth
(meters)
2
3
2
3
25th
Percentile
(meters)
1
2
1
2
Minimum
Depth
(meters)
1
1
1
1
Wetland
Acreage
(acres)
1,125
3,360
1,652
5,374
Segment
Perimeter
(meters)
108,327
109,059
264,699
119,417
Segment
Surface Area
(meters2)
8,573,187
8,660,891
16,229,024
14,093,807
Segment
Volume
(meters3)
15,337,500
35,390,000
28,630,000
66,680,000
Surface Area
to Volume
Ratio
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.2
Source: Chesapeake Bay Program http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
Table VI-2.  Recent summer averaged water quality conditions in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey tidal fresh
             (MPNTF and PMKTF, respectively) and oligohaline (MPNOH and PMKOH, respectively) segments for
             2000-2002, dry to record dry summers.
Water
CBP Column
Segment Layer
MPNTF
MPNTF
MPNOH
MPNOH
PMKTF
PMKTF
PMKOH
PMKOH
S = surface
B = bottom
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B

Water
Column
Depth
(meters)
0.7
3.0
0.7
14.3
0.7
6.1
0.7
5.2

Salinity Temperature
(ppt) (°C)
0.0
0.0
7.4
8.4
0.3
0.3
6.6
7.0

27.3
27.2
26.8
26.5
26.9
26.8
26.2
26.2

Dissolved Dissolved
Oxygen Oxygen Chlorophyll a
Concentration Deficit Concentration
(mg filer1) (mg filer1) (ug filer1)
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.3
5.5
5.0
4.9

2.4 5.9
2.4
2.1 10.6
2.7
2.5 6.2
2.6
2.9 12.6
3.0

Tola!
Suspended Tola!
Sofids Nilrogen
Concenlralion Concenlralion
(mg filer1) (mg filer1)
10.3
12.3
35.4
100.6
18.3
31.0
46.0
139.9

0.61
0.61
0.76
0.94
0.61
0.68
0.73
1.11

Tola!
Phosphorus
Concenlralion
(mg filer1)
0.079
0.080
0.115
0.174
0.084
0.107
0.105
0.220

Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database, http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
                               chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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   70

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                                                                                             71
DISSOLVED OXYGEN/TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIPS

Another natural feature of tidal systems strongly influenced by extensive adjacent
tidal wetlands would be a strong relationship between the ambient dissolved oxygen
concentrations (and dissolved oxygen deficit) and water temperature, useful for
separating out the wetlands' effect on dissolved oxygen versus an anthropogenic
effect.  Figure VI-2 shows dissolved oxygen concentration and dissolved oxygen
deficit plotted versus water temperature for the tidal fresh and oligohaline segments
of the  Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers  and for the tidal fresh and oligohaline
segments of the Rappahannock and Patuxent rivers for comparison. All the plots
illustrated in Figure VI-2 show dissolved oxygen concentrations  going  down as
water temperature  rises due to  decreasing  saturation  concentrations and likely
increased biological/chemical demand.
In the Rappahannock and Patuxent segments, however, dissolved oxygen concentra-
tions begin to trend back upward (and the dissolved oxygen deficit levels out) as
temperatures continue to increase. Presumably the generation of oxygen from plank-
tonic algal photosynthesis at these increasing temperatures provides the beneficial
boost during the daytime when these measurements were collected.

This trend effect in which dissolved oxygen concentrations increase as temperatures
continue to increase is not evident in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments. Based
on a comparison of the values in Table  VI-2 and Appendix A, the difference in
chlorophyll a concentrations in Rappahannock and Patuxent (higher concentrations)
versus Mattaponi and Pamunkey river segments (lower concentrations) supports this
hypothesis. These findings lend further evidence of the lack of a strong influence of
planktonic  algal photosynthesis  on  dissolved  oxygen concentrations with  the
Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers.

LOW VARIABILITY IN DISSOLVED  OXYGEN CONCENTRATIONS

One could also hypothesize that, within the temperature trend described above and
illustrated in Figure VI-2, there should be less scatter in  the data points in a system
whose  'stressor' exerted its effect in a relatively constant  manner,  as the wetlands
might.  While this hypothesis may be true and is suggested in the plots provided in
Figure  VI-2, the differences among the segments in the number and diversity of
stations contributing data points  is confounding a clearer conclusion. Table VI-3,
however,  provides further quantitative information on dissolved oxygen concentra-
tion variability in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments which does support that
hypothesis.
Through  the long-term Chesapeake  Bay  Water Quality Monitoring Program,
Virginia has been collecting monthly or twice monthly dissolved oxygen measure-
ments (surface and bottom) at fixed stations  in the Mattaponi and  Pamunkey  tidal
fresh and oligohaline segments since 1985. The data are collected in the daytime and
each measurement represents one point in time in the month or two-week interval.
                             chapter v •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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   72
                    MPNTF Surface
                 10    B    20   »
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                 10    15
                  Water Temperature

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                 10    B    20    35   30   36
                  Water Temperature

                    PAXTF Surface
                 10    E    20    26   30
                  Water Tem|3eraiure
                                               gs
                                                 0.
                                                                             MPNOH Surface
                                                             a S
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                                             *****
                                                   10    16    20   35   30    36
                                                    Water Temperature

                                                      RPPOH Surface
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                                                    Water Temperature

                                                      PAXOH Surface
                                                   10    B    20   35   30    36
                                                    Water Temperature
                                                                                                        g*
Figure VI-2. Plots of measured ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations (*, mg liter1) and calculated dissolved
oxygen deficit (o, mg liter1) versus water temperature (°C) in tidal fresh and oligohaline segments of the Mattaponi
(MPNTF and MPNOH, respectively) and  Pamunkey (PMKTF and PMKOH, respectively) rivers and in the tidal fresh
and oligohaline segments of Rappahannock (RPPTF and RPPOH, respectively) and  Patuxent (PAXTF and PAXOH,
respectively) rivers for comparison.
Source: Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program database, http://www.chesapeakebay.net/data
    chapter vi
jidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                              73
In 2003, in-situ, continuous monitoring devices were deployed by the Virginia Insti-
tute of Marine Science at a number of sites within both tidal rivers and all four
salinity-based segments. These 'buoys' were deployed to collect data at time-scales
more relevant to the Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen criteria, which have 7-day
mean and instantaneous minimum as well as the 30-day mean averaging periods
(U.S.  EPA 2003a). These buoys collect dissolved oxygen concentration and other
physical data continuously at 15-minute intervals.

For the comparisons in Table  VI-3, the mean and other statistics of the long-term
daytime Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program measurements were
computed for each month over the  18-year record, separately for surface (water
column depth = 1 meter) and bottom (where the water column depth was >1 meter)
waters. The  continuous buoy data were divided into day (6:00 AM-5:59 PM) and
night (6:00 PM-5:59 AM) periods. All the  buoys were deployed at the fixed depths
listed in Table VI-3.

The low variability in  dissolved oxygen concentrations  measured in the Mattaponi
and Pamunkey segments are documented  by four separate measures: 1) the small
within-month range of concentrations measured in the Chesapeake Bay Water
Quality Monitoring Program over the  18-year data record; 2) the small dissolved
oxygen concentration  differences between surface and deeper waters (long-term
water quality monitoring program data station); 3) the good agreement between
dissolved oxygen concentrations measured  at the long-term water quality monitoring
program stations and the continuous buoy sites; and 4) the small differences between
day and night concentrations recorded in the continuous  buoy  data. Similar compar-
isons are becoming possible in other Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributary segments
with expanded implementation of shallow water and continuous buoy deployment
monitoring programs. This expanding data record will be evaluated in the future to
further confirm low-variability in dissolved oxygen concentrations are an important
characteristic of segments where  extensive tidal wetlands are directly influencing
ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations.
       APPROACHES  FOR ADDRESSING NATURALLY
           LOW  DISSOLVED OXYGEN  CONDITIONS
                    DUE TO TIDAL WETLANDS
Four approaches for addressing naturally low ambient dissolved oxygen concentra-
tions due  to adjacent extensive tidal wetlands within  the context of state water
quality standards were considered:
1. Define a completely new designated use with the appropriate dissolved oxygen
  criteria.
2. Develop a separate  biological  reference curve  that would account for lower
  dissolved oxygen values in wetland-dominated tidal water segments.
                            chapter vi  • Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                               chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

-------
76
                    3. Determine a fixed or multivariate compensation factor to 'adjust' (upward) the
                      observed dissolved oxygen concentration values. The adjusted values would be
                      substituted for observed values in the criteria attainment assessment protocol used
                      for all affected designated uses, i.e., comparing the cumulative frequency distri-
                      bution curve of observed values to the biological reference curve.
                    4. Derive a set of site-specific dissolved oxygen criteria values that factor in the
                      natural dissolved oxygen deficit.
                    The first approach—a completely new  designated use—was rejected because the
                    species and habitat requirements of those species that should be protected in these
                    tidal wetland dominated segments are the same species that occupy other open-water
                    designated use tidal water segments of similar salinity regimes. The assumption is
                    that in these areas, the species' dissolved oxygen requirements are the same but that
                    they may modify their behavior,  utilize the area differently  or  otherwise make
                    accommodation for the natural  effect of the tidal wetlands  on ambient dissolved
                    oxygen concentrations with some level of adverse effects.
                    The  second approach—developing  a separate  biological  reference curve—was
                    rejected because the biological reference levels are, by definition, based on ambient
                    dissolved oxygen conditions  exhibited by areas supporting high functioning living
                    resources. Even if this definition were abandoned in favor of a curve or curves based
                    on specific natural impairments,  then the Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments would
                    have to  serve as  their own  reference sites since there are  no other comparable
                    segments within the Chesapeake  Bay  system. Taking  this  approach to deriving
                    biological reference curves was difficult to rationalize.
                    The third approach—to find an appropriate adjustment factor for observed concen-
                    trations—was  rejected because  of concerns that the criteria,  not the  attainment
                    procedures, should directly reflect the natural dissolved oxygen deficits caused by
                    extensive tidal wetlands.
                    The fourth option—derive a set of set specific dissolved oxygen criteria values—was
                    recommended as the best approach to factor in the natural wetlands-caused dissolved
                    oxygen deficit directly for the reasons and technical basis documented below.
                      DERIVATION  OF  SITE-SPECIFIC DISSOLVED OXYGEN
                    CRITERIA FACTORING IN NATURAL WETLAND-CAUSED
                                     DISSOLVED  OXYGEN DEFICITS
                    Through evaluation of three independent sources of information—scientific findings
                    published in the peer reviewed literature, Chesapeake Bay water quality model simu-
                    lations, and the long-term Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program data
                    record—efforts were made to quantify the deficit in dissolved oxygen concentrations
                    below  oxygen saturation  levels due to  natural tidal  wetland  processes.  Once
                    quantified,  the wetland-caused oxygen deficits could  then be  subtracted from
  chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                            77
calculated oxygen saturation concentrations to determine the natural background
oxygen levels that could be sustained within these wetland dominated tidal rivers
absent any external anthropogenic nutrient pollutant loadings.

SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH-BASED ESTIMATES OF
WETLAND RESPIRATION

As part of the analysis to examine dissolved oxygen criteria attainment in the various
tidal wetland dominated segments, the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Model was
calibrated to account for wetland oxygen demand by applying a universal sediment
oxygen demand of 2 grams O2/meter2-day to all Chesapeake Bay tidal wetland areas.
This value is a best professional judgement based on values published in the scien-
tific literature and communication with  Chesapeake Bay wetland scientists
(Neubauer  2003).  The scientific literature  indicates wetland  sediment  oxygen
demand in Northeastern United States ranges from 1 to 5.3 grams O2/meter2-day
(Neubauer et al. 2000; Cai et al. 1999).
The value for sediment oxygen demand used in the previous 1998 Chesapeake Bay
water quality model calibration (2 grams O2/meter2-day) was re-examined and deter-
mined to be accurate for the Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers. Scott Neubauer of the
Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (personal  communication June 19,
2003) estimates the marsh sediment oxygen consumption for Sweet Hall marsh, a
freshwater  marsh in the Pamunkey River, to range between  0.99-2.59  grams
O2/meter2-day. Neubauer's  estimated ranges further support the sediment  oxygen
demand of 2 grams Oymetei^-day that was used in the previous model calibration.
Neubauer also concurred that the Mattaponi and Pamunkey systems are very similar
(Neubauer 2003). Therefore, there was no need to recalibrate the  sediment oxygen
demand for either tidal tributary.

MODEL-BASED WETLAND-CAUSED OXYGEN DEFICITS

The impact of wetland oxygen demand on ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations
was quantified for both the  Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments through application
of the  Chesapeake Bay water  quality model. A  series of water quality model
scenarios 'with wetlands' and 'without wetlands' were run to estimate the difference
in model-adjusted interpolated monthly averaged dissolved oxygen concentration in
the  Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments. In the 'with wetlands' scenario, the water
quality model simulated the full influence of the extensive adjacent tidal wetlands on
ambient  water quality conditions. In the 'without wetlands'  scenario, the tidal
wetland functions of the model were turned off in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey
model cells in order to simulate ambient  water quality conditions  in the absence of
any influence by tidal wetlands. The summer monthly averaged dissolved oxygen
concentration difference simulated  by the  'with wetlands' scenario minus the
'without wetlands' scenario was 3 mg liter"1, i.e., the open-water dissolved oxygen
concentrations  in the  Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments with the presence of the
                            chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

-------
78
                    extensive tidal wetlands were simulated to be 3 mg liter 1 lower than model esti-
                    mated dissolved oxygen saturated concentrations. The model estimated 3 mg liter"1
                    oxygen  deficit  is  fully consistent with  the  average  dissolved  oxygen  deficits
                    observed in monitoring data collected in these segments (see text below, Tables VI-
                    2 and VI-3, Figure VI-1).

                    MONITORING-BASED ESTIMATES OF WETLAND-CAUSED
                    OXYGEN DEFICITS

                    The dissolved oxygen concentration and oxygen saturation levels were calculated
                    from the  1985-2002  Chesapeake Bay Water  Quality Monitoring  Program data
                    collected at stations in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments. Over the 18-year data
                    record, these stations were sampled at least monthly—sometimes twice monthly—
                    as part of the long-term water quality monitoring program. The almost two-decade
                    data record covers years of varying climatic and hydro logic conditions in the water-
                    shed. Continuous, high frequency dissolved oxygen concentration data  were also
                    available for these segments, as described previously, but in most cases the duration
                    of the  data records is less than one year. Based on findings presented above,
                    dissolved oxygen conditions characterized by the data collected at long-term (day-
                    time) monitoring stations were very  similar to those revealed by the continuous
                    dissolved oxygen recording devices: short-term temporal and spatial variations in
                    dissolved oxygen concentrations were relatively small;  and deep nocturnal dips in
                    dissolved oxygen concentrations were not observed in these segments.

                    For this analysis, the long-term water quality monitoring data were partitioned into
                    surface  and bottom depths and into  'cold' (sampling events when water  column
                    temperatures were  less than  or equal to 15° C) and 'warm' (greater than 15° C)
                    temperature categories. Table VI-4 shows: the  calculated  mean dissolved  oxygen
                    saturation concentration over the 18 year data record; the difference between calcu-
                    lated oxygen saturation and actual observed dissolved oxygen concentrations, i.e.,
                    the dissolved oxygen deficit; the number and percent of dissolved oxygen measure-
                    ments below the 5 mg liter"1 30-day  mean criterion  and  below a 4 mg liter"1
                    concentration value; and the average magnitude of those episodic excursions below
                    the 5 and 4 mg liter"1 values. Dissolved oxygen concentrations are always well above
                    the  5 mg liter"1  30-day mean criterion in the  cold months  in the Mattaponi and
                    Pamunkey river segments, so the cold month statistics are not discussed further.

                    As presented earlier and previewed in  Table VI-2, the average dissolved  oxygen
                    deficit in the warm  (>15° C) months  was  2.6 +/- 0.8 mg liter"1  (Table VI-4). This
                    long-term average  monitoring data-based oxygen  deficit value overlaps with the
                    oxygen  deficit of 3 mg liter"1 estimated  through the Bay water quality model simu-
                    lation of tidal dissolved oxygen concentrations with and without tidal wetlands.

                    The calculated  dissolved oxygen saturation concentration in the  Mattaponi and
                    Pamunkey segments in the warm months was 8.5 +/- 0.7 mg liter"1. That means that,
                    in the absence of any anthropogenic pollutant influences on water quality conditions,
  chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                     79
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  chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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                                                                                               81
much of the time the fully saturated ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations would
still above the 5 mg liter"1 30-day mean criterion level. However, from 13 to greater
than 30 percent of the warm months' monitoring-based observations fell below a
monthly mean of 5 mg liter"1 with the magnitudes of these exceedences up to 0.7 mg
liter"1. These observations indicate that the segments would likely fail a summer-
time application of the 5 mg liter"1 30-day mean criteria. Tested against a monthly
mean concentration of 4 mg liter"1, however, the percentage of observations  falling
below this concentration is less than 7 percent in most cases, and the magnitude of
the exceedance is ~0.5 mg liter"1 (Table VI-4).

The  warm months calculated dissolved  oxygen saturation concentration  of 8.5
+/-0.7 mg liter"1  directly translates into a dissolved oxygen concentration range of
7.8 to 10.2 mg liter"1. Similarly, the warm months average oxygen deficit of 2.6
+/-0.8 mg liter"1 converts into a oxygen deficit concentration range of 1.6 to 3.4 mg
liter"1. Assuming a maximum long-term average oxygen deficit of 3.4 mg liter"1, we
could anticipate an ambient dissolved oxygen range of 6.8 to 4.4 mg liter"1 upon
factoring in the oxygen deficit to a saturated water column condition. These are the
best dissolved oxygen conditions, assuming the maximum oxygen deficit, one could
ever hope to measure in the  absence of any anthropogenic nutrient pollutant loading
influence  on ambient dissolved  oxygen  conditions.  Even  without  any human
impacts, the 5 mg liter"1 30-day  mean dissolved oxygen criterion would be not
attained all times in the warm months of the  year, setting up the basis for a site-
specific criterion based on natural conditions preventing attainment of the use (U.S.
EPA 2003b).

SITE-SPECIFIC  DISSOLVED OXYGEN CRITERIA DERIVATION

Factoring a natural tidal wetlands-based oxygen deficit into the oxygen saturation
levels, based on the 18-year data record (see above), along with recognition that the
antropogenic pollutant loads can be reduced but not eliminated (U.S.  EPA 2003b), a
site specific 4 mg liter"1 30-day mean criterion is recommended in place  of the
published 5 mg liter"1 30-day mean and 4 mg liter"1 7-day mean open-water desig-
nated use  criteria. The EPA-published  3.2  mg  liter"1  instantaneous minimum
dissolved oxygen criterion still applies to these waters year round (U.S. EPA 2003a).
The 4 mg liter"1 30-day mean site-specific criterion applies only to the tidal fresh and
oligohaline segments of the Mattaponi and Pamunkey rivers during the time period
of June 1 through September 30. Outside of this time period, the EPA-published set
of open-water designated use dissolved oxygen criteria apply (U.S. EPA 2003a). The
water column temperatures during the October through May time-frame are  such
that higher levels  of oxygen saturation are maintained and the biological processes
driving the natural tidal wetland oxygen deficits do not have nearly the same level of
influence on ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations.
This approach assumes that the nature of the wetland effect on dissolved oxygen is
relatively constant within season and that there are no other major  stresses on
                             chapter vi  •  Guidance for Deriving Site Specific Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

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82
                    dissolved oxygen in the system as documented previously. This results in relatively
                    stable dissolved oxygen concentrations, which although sometimes below the 5 mg
                    liter"1 30-day mean criterion level due to natural oxygen deficits, remain substantially
                    above the instantaneous minimum criterion. The magnitude of the wetland-caused
                    oxygen deficit is not enough to cause the calculated oxygen saturated concentrations
                    to fall below the 3.2 mg liter"1 instantaneous minimum. Therefore any future observed
                    exceedences of this criterion value are likely due to anthropogenic nutrient pollutant
                    loadings, not natural wetland-caused oxygen deficits.
                    At attainment levels sustained for long periods of time just above the 4 mg liter"1
                    criterion concentration (e.g., very few observed concentrations above  4 mg liter"1),
                    survival of open-water aquatic species in their larval, juvenile and adult lifestages
                    will not be impaired but there is likely to be  some unquantified level of growth-
                    related impairments. However, the 18-year data record indicates a maximum of less
                    than one-third of the segment-based dissolved oxygen concentrations  would not
                    attain a 5 mg liter"1 concentration  (Table VI-4).  Therefore, combined with imple-
                    mentation of further nutrient reduction actions  in the upstream watersheds yielding
                    higher measured ambient dissolved oxygen concentrations in the future, the number
                    of exceedences of the 5 mg liter"1 concentration will be even less, further limiting
                    growth effects.
                    With a 30-day mean criterion of 4 mg  liter"1, these segments are likely to pass or
                    come close to passing a formal criteria assessment under current conditions. Given
                    that some fraction of oxygen depletion in these segments is definitely caused by
                    controllable nutrient inputs, tributary-based nutrient reduction strategies should be
                    more than  adequate  to raise  ambient  oxygen  levels above  the   4  mg liter"1
                    concentration.

                    SITE-SPECIFIC CRITERIA BIOLOGICAL REFERENCE CURVE
                    The criteria assessment protocol for all segments and designated uses employs moni-
                    toring data  to develop cumulative frequency distribution  (CFD)  curves of
                    exceedance, which are compared to  biological reference curves specific to desig-
                    nated uses, salinity regimes, and seasons. Monitoring  data are interpolated over a
                    fixed three-dimensional grid to obtain dissolved oxygen concentrations for each grid
                    cell. These are compared to appropriate criteria values and yield a grid-cell by grid-
                    cell estimate of the volume or area of criteria exceedance.  The percentages of a
                    segment's volume/area exceeding the criteria levels are accumulated over all obser-
                    vation dates in the assessment period. The CFD generated from these data reflect
                    exceedance (and by difference, attainment) in both space and time. (See Chapter 6
                    of Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oyxgen, Water Clarity and Chloro-
                    phyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries (U.S. EPA 2003a) for more
                    details on the  criteria attainment assessment  protocol.) The biological reference
                    curve is the  CFD of exceedances in segments or other areas that are determined to
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                                                                                                    83
be  'healthy,' i.e., that demonstrably support growth and reproduction of the living
resources targeted for protection by these criteria.

The biological reference levels  are, by  definition, based on ambient dissolved
oxygen conditions  exhibited by areas supporting high functioning living resources.
Even if this definition were abandoned in favor of a curve or curves based on specific
natural impairments, then the Mattaponi  and Pamunkey segments would have to
serve as their own reference sites, which is difficult to rationalize. In the absence of
sufficient data necessary to generate a biological reference curve, EPA recommends
application of a normal  distribution curve representing approximately 10 percent
allowable criteria exceedence (U.S. EPA 2003a).
                           LITERATURE CITED

Anderson, I. C., C. R. Tobias, B. B. Neikirk and R. L. Wetzel. 1997. Development of a
process-based mass balance model for a Virginia Spartina alterniflora salt marsh: Implica-
tions for net DIN flux. Marine Ecology Progress Series 159:13-27.

Cai, W. J., L. R. Pomeroy, M. A. Moran and Y. Wang. 1999. Oxygen and carbon dioxide mass
balance for the estuarine-intertidal marsh complex of five rivers in the southeastern U.S.
Limnology and Oceanography 44:639-649.

Neubauer, S. C., I. C. Anderson, J. A. Constantine and S. A. Kuehl. 2001. Sediment deposi-
tion and accretion in a mid-Atlantic (U.S.A.) tidal freshwater marsh. Estuarine Coastal and
Shelf Science. 54:713-727.

Neubauer, S. C., W. D. Miller and I. C. Anderson. 2000. Atmospheric CO2 evasion, dissolved
inorganic carbon production and net heterotrophy in the York River estuary. Limnology and
Oceanography. 45:1701 -1717.

Neubauer, Scott. June 6, 2003 and June 19, 2003. Personal communication. Smithsonian
Institute Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, Maryland.

Tobias, C.R., I.C. Anderson, E.A. Canuel, and S.A. Mako. 2001. Nutrient cycling through a
fringing marsh—aquifer ecotone. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 210:25-39.

U.S. EPA. 2003a. Ambient Water Quality for Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chloro-
phyll a for the Chesapeake Bay  and Its Tidal Tributaries. EPA 903-R-03-002.  Region  III
Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.

U.S. EPA. 2003b. Technical Support Documentation for Identification of Chesapeake Bay
Designated Uses and Attainability. EPA 903-R-03-004. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program
Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
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                                                                                    85
                       chapter \/||
    Upper  and  Lower  Pycnocline
           Boundary  Delineation
                    Methodology
Vertical stratification is foremost among the physical factors affecting dissolved
oxygen concentrations in some parts of Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries. If
the density discontinuity is great enough to prevent mixing of the layers and consti-
tutes a vertical barrier to diffusion of dissolved oxygen, then a pycnocline is said to
exist (Figure VII-1). For the purposes of water quality criteria attainment assessment,
the Chesapeake Bay  and tidal tributary waters are separated into a surface mixed
layer (e.g., open-water designated use), an inter-pycnocline layer (e.g., deep-water
designated use) and a lower mixed layer (e.g., deep-channel designated use) (U.S.
EPA 2003a, 2003b).
Accurate estimates of the pycnocline are important for assessing criteria attainment.
The method documented here  for assessing upper and lower mixed layer depths
differs from the standard Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program field
sampling cruise method (Chesapeake Bay Program  1996) in that this methodology
uses a measured density gradient based on salinity and  temperature rather than
relying on the field surrogate, conductivity.
Defining the depth of the upper mixed layer based on the physical barrier of a density
gradient is discussed in Brainerd and Gregg 1995. Culver and Perry (1999) and
Larsson et al. (2001) propose particular density gradient thresholds for defining this
layer. The critical density gradient is dependent on many factors, most importantly
the strength of the turbulent mixing. Generally, for the Chesapeake Bay the upper
pycnocline depth, defining the surface mixed layer, is the shallowest occurrence of a
density gradient of 0.1 kg/m4 or greater. The lower mixed layer depth is the deepest
occurrence of a density gradient of 0.2 kg/m4, if a lower mixed layer exists below it.
These limits were based on an extensive review of thousands of  density profiles
throughout the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries throughout 19-year record of
the Chesapeake  Bay Water Quality Monitoring Program.  These density gradient
thresholds are consistent with the values published for other tidal water bodies and
with similar studies in the Chesapeake Bay (Fisher 2003). Since pycnocline delin-
                     chapter vii •  Upper and Lower Pycnocline Boundary Delineation Methodology

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86
                    cation is based on hydrodynamics and not bathymetry, the depth of the pycnocline
                    and hence the boundaries of the designated uses changes on a monthly basis.
                    DETERMINATION OF THE VERTICAL  DENSITY  PROFILE

                    The vertical water column density profile (sigma-t) is calculated using the following
                    equations:
                      Sigma_t = tsum+((sigo+0.1324)*(l-sa+sb*(sigo -0.1324)))
                      Where:
                           tempc = water temperature in degrees Celsius
                           salinity = salinity in grams per liter
                           sigo =  -0.069+((1.47808*((salinity - 0.03)/1.805))(0.00157*
                                  (((salinityB0.03)/1.805)**2))+0.0000398*
                                  (((salmityB0.03)/1.805)**3)));
                           tsum = (-l*(((tempc - 3.98)**2)/503.57))* ((tempc+283)/(tempc+67.26));
                           sa = (10**-3)*tempc)*(4.7867 - (0.098185*tempc)+(0.0010843*
                               (tempc* *2))),
                                  and
                           sb = ((10**-6)*tempc)*(18.030-(0.8164*tempc)+(0.01667*(tempc**2))).
                         DETERMINATION OF  THE  PYCNOCLINE  DEPTHS

                    To determine the depths of the pycnocline, the following rules are applied to the
                    density profile:
                    1) From the water surface downward, the  first density slope observation that  is
                      greater than 0.1 kgnr4 is designated as the upper pycnocline depth provided that:

                           a) that observation is not the first observation in the water column; and

                           b) the next density slope observation below is positive.

                    2) From the bottom sediment-water interface upward, the first density slope obser-
                      vation that is greater than 0.2 kg m~4 is designated as the lower pycnocline depth
                      provided that:

                           a) an upper pycnocline depth exists;

                           b) there  is a bottom mixed layer,  defined by  the  first or second density
                             slope observation from the bottom sediment-water interface being less
                             than 0.2 kg m~4; and

                           c) the next density slope observation above is positive.
  chapter vii •  Upper and Lower Pycnocline Boundary Delineation Methodology

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                                                                                                     87
>pth (meters)
o en o
D
Water Column
U1

-20
-25




-


^ 	

^ Observed dissolved
oxygen conentrations
with depth


) 2 4 6

V
\
\
\
Monitored ^
water column ^
density
8 10 12 14


-

-

\ •





16 18
Dissolved Oxygen Concentration (mg/liter); Density (sigma T)
Figure VII-1. Example of a vertical density profile with calculated pycnocline boundaries
and observed dissolved oxygen concentrations with depth. Monitored water column
density and observed dissolved oxygen concentrations with depth are illustrated with the
upper (dashed line) and lower (dotted line) pycnocline depths overlaid for station CB4.3 in
the middle Chesapeake Bay mainstem on June 10, 1986.
                           LITERATURE CITED

Brainerd, K. E. and M. C. Gregg. 1995. Surfaced mixed and mixing layer depths. Deep-Sea
Research %l: 1521-1543
Chesapeake Bay Program. 1996. Recommended Guidelines for Sampling and Analyses in the
Chesapeake Bay Monitoring Program. EPA 903-R-96-006. CBP/TRS 148/96. Chesapeake
Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
Culver, M. E. and M. J. Perry. 1999. The response of photosynthetic absorption coefficients
to irradiance in culture and in tidally mixed estuarine waters. Limnology and Oceanography
44:  24-36.
Fisher, Tom. 2003. Personal communication/unpublished manuscript. University of Mary-
land Center for Environmental Science, Horn Point Laboratory, Cambridge, Maryland.
Larsson, U., S. Hajdu, J. Waive, and R. Elmgren. 2001. Baltic Sea nitrogen fixation estimated
from the summer increase in upper mixed layer total nitrogen. Limnology and Oceanography
46:  811-820.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003a. Ambient Water Quality  Criteria for Dissolved
Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the  Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
EPA 903-R-03-002. Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003b. Technical Support Document for Identifica-
tion of Chesapeake Bay Designated Uses and Attainability. EPA 903-R-03-004. Region III
Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
                         chapter vii  •  Upper and  Lower Pycnocline Boundary Delineation Methodology

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                                                                                   89
                       chapter \/| 11
            Updated  Guidance for
       Application  of Water  Clarity
      Criteria  and  SAV Restoration
                    Goal  Acreages
  With publication of the Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water
  Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries
  (Regional Criteria Guidance) (U.S. EPA 2003a) and the Technical Support Docu-
  ment for  Identification  of Chesapeake Bay Designated  Uses and Attainability
  (Technical Support Document) (U.S. EPA 2003b), the jurisdictions were provided
  with extensive guidance for how to determine attainment of the shallow-water bay
  grass designated use.

  Specifically, the EPA Regional Criteria  Guidance document provided the following
  guidance to the jurisdictions:
      To determine the return of water clarity conditions necessary to support
      restoration of underwater grasses and, therefore,  attainment of the shallow-
      water designated use, states may:  1) evaluate the number  of acres of
      underwater bay grasses present in each respective Chesapeake Bay Program
      segment, comparing that acreage with the segment's bay grass restoration
      goal acreage; and/or 2) determine the attainment  of the water clarity criteria
      within the area designated for shallow-water bay grass use. The shallow-
      water bay  grass  use  designated use area may  be  defined by either:
      1) applying the appropriate water clarity criteria application depth (i.e., 0.5,
      1 or 2 meters) along the entire length of the segment's shoreline (with excep-
      tion of those shoreline areas determined to be bay grass no-zone grow zones;
      see U.S.  EPA 2003  [Technical  Support Document}  for  details); or
      2) determining the necessary total acreage of shallow-water habitat within
      which the water clarity criteria must be met using a salinity regime specific
      ratio of underwater bay grass acres to be restored within a segment to acres
      of shallow-water habitat that must meet the water clarity criteria within the
      same  segment (regardless  of specifically where and at what  exact depth
      those shallow water habitat acreages reside within the segment).
chapter vii •  Updated Guidance for Application of Water Clarity Criteria and SAV Restoration Goal Acreages

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90
                    These approaches to assessing attainment of the shallow-water bay grass designated
                    use were described in more detail in Chapter 6 of the Regional Criteria Guidance
                    document (U.S. EPA 2003a).  Since the  2003 publication  of both  the Regional
                    Criteria  Guidance and the  Technical  Support Document,  new  information has
                    become available to the watershed jurisdictions and EPA in support of state adoption
                    of SAV  restoration goal,  shallow water  habitat and  shallow-water existing use
                    acreages into their water quality standards regulations. This new  information will
                    also help the four jurisdictions with Chesapeake Bay tidal waters adopt consistent,
                    specific procedures for determining attainment of the shallow-water bay grass desig-
                    nated uses into  their  regulations.  (Note the terms 'underwater bay grasses' and
                    'submerged aquatic vegetation' or 'SAV are used interchangeably in this document.)

                    EPA continues to support and encourage the jurisdictions' adoption of the Chesapeake
                    Bay Program segment-specific  submerged  aquatic vegetation (SAV) restoration goal
                    acreages and the corresponding water clarity criteria attaining shallow-water acreage
                    necessary to support restoration of those acreages of SAV into each jurisdictions'
                    respective water quality standards regulations. Achievement of the SAV restoration
                    goal and shallow-water acreages are two additional means, beyond numerical water
                    clarity criteria applied to segment-specific application depths, for defining attainment
                    of the shallow-water bay grass designated use.
                       WATER CLARITY  CRITERIA  APPLICATION PERIODS

                    The temporal application periods for the water clarity criteria were determined based
                    on the growing  seasons for the salinity-based SAV plant communities:  April  1
                    through October 31 for tidal fresh, oligohaline and mesohaline salinity regimes and
                    March 1 through May 31 and September 1 through November 30 for polyhaline
                    regimes (U.S. EPA 2003a; Batiuk et al. 1992, 2000). The tidal fresh, oligohaline and
                    mesohaline salinity regimes application period was based on the combined growing
                    seasons for tidal fresh to middle salinity SAV species communities. The polyhaline
                    temporal application periods were based on the bimodal Zostera marina or eelgrass
                    growing seasons (Batiuk et al. 1992).

                    Given that Ruppia maritima or widgeon grass, principally a mesohaline species, has
                    been found growing along with eelgrass in a majority of the polyhaline regions  of
                    the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries  in Virginia waters (Moore et al. 2000),
                    the water clarity criteria temporal application period for polyhaline waters should be
                    an inclusive combination of the mesohaline and polyhaline  temporal application
                    periods or  March  1 through  November 30. This expanded  temporal application
                    period should apply to polyhaline Chesapeake Bay Program segments where there is
                    evidence of past or present widgeon grass growth or the potential for future growth.
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                                                                                                91
              SHALLOW-WATER  HABITAT ACREAGES

   New information on shallow-water habitat acreages has been published in the Tech-
   nical Support Document for Identification of Chesapeake Say Designated Uses and
   Attainability-2004 Addendum (U.S. EPA  2004).  These updated  shallow-water
   habitat acreages factor in the full extent of the 0 to 2 meter depth contour area of
   shallow water habitat, minus the delineated SAV no-grow zones. Through compar-
   ison with the expanded restoration acreages, described below, new segment-specific
   expanded restoration acreages as a percentage of the shallow-water habitat acreages
   have also been published in the Technical Support Document 2004 Addendum.

   SAV RESTORATION ACREAGE TO SHALLOW-WATER HABITAT
   ACREAGE  RATIO

   There  is scientific documentation originally published in both the Ambient Water
   Quality Criteria for Dissolved  Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for  the
   Chesapeake Bay and its Tidal Tributaries (U.S. EPA  2003a)  and the Technical
   Support Document for Identification  of Chesapeake Bay Designated Uses  and
   Attainability (U.S. EPA 2003b)  supporting the findings that suitable shallow-water
   habitat must be at acreages greater than the corresponding SAV restoration goal to
   support restoration of SAV to those acreages.

   Text on page 198 in the Regional Criteria Guidance states:

       Restoring underwater water grasses within a  segment requires that the
       particular shallow-water  habitat meet  the  Chesapeake Bay water clarity
       criteria across acreages much greater than those actually covered by bay
       grasses. The ratio of underwater bay grass acreage to the required shallow-
       water  habitat acreage achieving the necessary level of water clarity  to
       support return of  those  underwater bay grasses varies  based upon the
       different species of bay grasses  inhabiting the  Chesapeake Bay's  four
       salinity regimes. The baywide average ratio of underwater bay grass acreage
       to  suitable shallow-water habitat  acreage  is approximately  one acre  of
       underwater bay grasses  for every three acres of shallow-water  habitat
       achieving the Chesapeake Bay water clarity criteria.

       The salinity  regime and, therefore, bay grass community-specific under-
       water bay grass acreage to shallow-water habitat acreage ratios  have  been
       derived through an evaluation of extensive underwater bay grass distribution
       data within tidal-fresh, low (oligohaline), medium (mesohaline) and  high
       (polyhaline)  salinity  regimes (reflecting different levels of coverage by
       different bay grass  communities). The Technical Support Document for the
       Identification of Chesapeake Bay Designated Uses and Attainability docu-
       ments  the methodology followed and the resulting bay grasses acreage to
       shallow water habitat  acreage ratios derived for each of the  four salinity
       regimes (U.S. EPA 2003).
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92
                    Text on page 123 in the Technical Support Document states:

                        As described previously, the restoration of underwater bay grasses within a
                        segment requires that shallow-water habitat meet the Chesapeake Bay water
                        clarity criteria over a greater acreage than the underwater bay grasses will
                        actually cover. The ratio of underwater bay grass acreage to the required
                        shallow-water habitat acreage varies based on the different species of under-
                        water bay grasses that inhabit the Bay's four salinity regimes. Shallow-water
                        habitat acreage ratios have been derived scientifically through evaluation of
                        extensive underwater bay grasses  distribution data within tidal fresh,  low,
                        medium and high salinity regimes (reflecting different levels of coverage by
                        different underwater bay grass communities).

                        The Chesapeake Bay Program segment-specific restoration goal acreage and
                        corresponding shallow-water  designated  use acreage (to the previously
                        determined maximum depth of abundant and persistent underwater plant
                        growth) listed in Table IV-15 were summed by major salinity regimeBtidal
                        fresh (0-0.5 ppt), oligohaline (> 0.5-5 ppt), mesohaline (> 5ppt-18 ppt) and
                        polyhaline (>18 ppt). The underwater bay grasses acreage to shallow-water
                        habitat acreage ratios were then  expressed  as  a percentage  of the  total
                        shallow-water designated use habitat. Compared with a baywide value of 38
                        percent, the tidal-fresh (37 percent), mesohaline (39 percent) and polyhaline
                        (41  percent) values were all very close to  the baywide value as well as the
                        other salinity regime-specific values (Table IV-16). These values are consis-
                        tent with findings  published in the scientific literature and the 35 to 48
                        percent range  derived from evaluation of the 1930s through early 1970s
                        historical data record by Naylor (2002) and Moore (1999, 2001). Influenced
                        by the natural presence of the estuarine turbidity maximum, the value was
                        21 percent in oligohaline habitats.

                    The scientific literature along with analysis of the multi-decadal SAV aerial survey
                    data record confirm that healthy SAV beds cover only a portion of the available suit-
                    able habitat  due to a variety of natural reasons.  Given  that the information
                    summarized above and  further documented in the Technical Support Document-2004
                    Addendum indicates ratios from 1:2 to  1:3 in terms of the area covered by SAV beds
                    compared to available shallow-water habitat area, a 1:2.5 ratio is recommended for
                    determining the segment-specific acreage of shallow-water habitat that needs to
                    achieve the applicable  water clarity criteria required to support restoration of the
                    segment specific SAV goal acreage.
                                 SAV RESTORATION  GOAL  ACREAGES

                    The adopted Chesapeake Bay Program SAV restoration goal acreages were based on
                    single best year coverages artificially clipped for shoreline and segment-specific
                    water clarity criteria  application depths, undercounting the actual mapped SAV
                    acreages. In some segments, this resulted in the existing use acreages  being higher
                    than the restoration goal acreage. The chosen solution, described in more detail in
chapter vii • Updated Guidance for Application of Water Clarity Criteria and SAV Restoration Goal Acreages

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                                                                                                 93
   the  Technical Support Document-2004 Addendum, was to  count  all of the SAV
   acreage for a given segment that occurred within the single best year regardless of
   any shoreline, bathymetry data limitations or water clarity application depth restric-
   tions.

   The  Technical  Support Document-2004 Addendum  documents  the 'expanded
   restoration acreage', updated existing use acreage and the available shallow-water
   habitat area  for each  Chesapeake Bay Program segment  (U.S. EPA 2004). As
   described in the addendum:
       The 'expanded restoration acreage' is the greatest acreage from among the
       updated existing use acreage (1978-2002; no shoreline clipping), the Chesa-
       peake Bay Program adopted SAV restoration goal acreage (strictly adhering
       to adopted single best year methodology with clipping) and the goal acreage
       displayed without shoreline or application depth clipping and including SAV
       from areas still  lacking bathymetry  data. This  'expanded  restoration
       acreage' is being documented here and provided to the partners as the best
       acreage values that can be  directly compared with SAV acreages reported
       through the baywide SAV aerial survey. These acreages are not the officially
       adopted goals  of the watershed partners; they are for consideration by the
      jurisdictions when adopting refined and  new water  quality  standards
       regulations.

   The Chesapeake Bay  Program SAV restoration goal of 185,000 acres  and the
   segment-specific goal acreages stand as the watershed partners' cooperative restora-
   tion goal for this critical living resource community (Chesapeake Executive Council
   2003). EPA recommends that the jurisdictions with Chesapeake Bay tidal waters
   consider adopting  the expanded restoration acreages (which factor in the updated
   existing use acreages) and shallow-water habitat acreages determined using the 1:2.5
   ratio into their refined and new water quality standards regulations.
                DETERMINING ATTAINMENT OF  THE
                 SHALLOW-WATER  BAY GRASS USE

   In addition to the methods previously described in the Technical Support Document
   (U.S. EPA 2003b) for determining attainment of the shallow-water bay grass desig-
   nated use, there is an additional methodology which integrates both progress towards
   to the SAV restoration goal acreage and measurement of suitable shallow  water
   habitat acreage necessary to support restoration of the remaining SAV beds needed
   to reach the  goal acreage. This methodology calls for assessing attainment of the
   shallow-water designated use in a segment through a combination of mapped SAV
   acreage and  meeting the applicable water clarity criteria in an additional, unvege-
   tated shallow water surface area equal to  2.5 times the  remaining SAV acreage
   necessary to  meet the segment's restoration goal (SAV restoration goal acreage
   minus the mapped SAV acreage).  In other words, a segment's shallow-water bay
   grass designated use would be considered in attainment if there are sufficient acres
chapter vii  •  Updated Guidance for Application of Water Clarity Criteria and SAV Restoration Goal Acreages

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 94
                     of shallow-water habitat meeting the applicable water clarity criteria to support
                     restoration of the remaining acres of SAV, beyond the SAV beds already mapped,
                     necessary to reach that  segment's  SAV restoration goal acreage. These measure-
                     ments of SAV acreages and water clarity levels would be drawn from three years of
                     data as previously described in the Regional Criteria Guidance (U.S. EPA 2003a).

                     Here's a hypothetical example of determining attainment of the shallow-water bay
                     grass use  using both mapped SAV acreage and  shallow-water  habitat acreage
                     meeting the water clarity criteria. Segment X has an SAV restoration goal acreage of
                     1,400 acres. Over the past three years,  SAV beds totaling 1,100 acres have been
                     mapped within the  segment for at least one of the three years.  Therefore,  the
                     remaining  SAV acreage  necessary to meet the segment's restoration goal is 1,400
                     acres (SAV restoration goal) minus  1,100 acres (SAV  currently mapped) or 300
                     acres. Beyond the currently vegetated shallow-water habitat, an additional 750 acres
                     of shallow-water habitat  (2.5 times 300 acres) would need to attain the water clarity
                     criteria in order to determine that this segment is attaining the shallow-water bay
                     grass use in combination with the 1,100 acres of mapped SAV.
                                               LITERATURE CITED

                     Batiuk, R. A., P. Bergstrom, M. Kemp, E. Koch, L. Murray, J. C. Stevenson, R. Bartleson, V.
                     Carter, N. B. Rybicki, J. M. Landwehr, C. Gallegos, L. Karrh, M. Naylor, D. Wilcox, K. A.
                     Moore, S. Ailstock and M. Teichberg. 2000. Chesapeake Bay Submerged Aquatic Vegetation
                     Water Quality and Habitat-Based Requirements and Restoration Targets: A Second Technical
                     Synthesis. CBP/TRS  245/00  EPA 903-R-00-014. U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program,
                     Annapolis, Maryland.

                     Batiuk, R. A., R. Orth, K. Moore, J. C. Stevenson, W. Dennison, L. Staver, V. Carter, N. B.
                     Rybicki,  R. Hickman, S. Kollar and S. Bieber. 1992. Chesapeake Bay Submerged Aquatic
                     Vegetation Habitat Requirements and Restoration Targets: A Technical Synthesis. CBP/TRS
                     83/92. U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program, Annapolis, Maryland.

                     Chesapeake Executive Council. 2003.  Chesapeake Executive Council Directive No. 02-03:
                     Meeting the Nutrient and Sediment Reduction Goals. Annapolis, Maryland.

                     Moore, K.,  D.  Wilcox, R. Orth and E. Bailey. 1999. Analysis of historical distribution of
                     submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the James River. Special Report No. 355 in Applied
                     Marine Science and Ocean Engineering. Virginia Institute of Marine Science, School of
                     Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia.

                     Moore, K. A.,  DJ. Wilcox and R. J. Orth. 2000. Analysis of the abundance of submersed
                     aquatic vegetation communities in the Chesapeake Bay. Estuaries 23 (1): 115-127.

                     Moore,  K.,  D. Wilcox and B.  Anderson. 2001. Analysis  of historical  distribution of
                     submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the York and Rappahannock rivers as evidence of
                     historical water quality conditions. Special Report No. 375 in Applied Marine Science and
                     Ocean Engineering. Virginia Institute of Marine Science, School of Marine Science, College
                     of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, Virginia.
chapter vii  •  Updated Guidance for Application of Water Clarity Criteria and SAV Restoration Goal Acreages

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                                                                                                        95
   Naylor, M.D. 2002. Historic distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesa-
   peake Bay, Maryland. Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Annapolis, Maryland.

   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003a. Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved
   Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
   EPA 903-R-03-002. Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.

   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003b. Technical Support Document for Identifica-
   tion of Chesapeake Bay Designated Uses and Attainability. EPA 903-R-03-004. Region III
   Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.

   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2004. Technical Support Document for Identification
   of Chesapeake Bay Designated Uses and Attainability-2004 Addendum. EPA 903-R-04-006.
   Region III Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.
chapter vii  •  Updated Guidance for Application of Water Clarity Criteria and SAV Restoration Goal Acreages

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                                                                               97
                      chapter
  Determining Where  Numerical
   Chlorophyll  a  Criteria Should
 Apply  to Local  Chesapeake  Bay
      and Tidal  Tributary  Waters
As published in Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity
and Chlorophyll a for Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries (U.S. EPA 2003):
   The EPA expects states to adopt narrative chlorophyll a criteria into their
   water quality standards for all Chesapeake Bay and tidal tributary waters.
   The EPA  strongly encourages states to develop and  adopt site-specific
   numerical chlorophyll a criteria for tidal waters where algal-related impair-
   ments are  expected to  persist  even after the Chesapeake Bay dissolved
   oxygen and water clarity criteria have been attained.

The Chesapeake Bay Program  partners developed a general methodology for
possible use by the jurisdictions with tidal waters to determine consistently which
local tidal waters will likely attain the published Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen
and water clarity criteria yet algal-related water quality impairments will persist. The
methodology is for application by Maryland, Virginia, Delaware and the District of
Columbia to assist in their future determinations of where they need to derive and
apply numerical chlorophyll a criteria for localized tidal waters.
             RECOMMENDED METHODOLOGY

The jurisdictions should evaluate the available Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Moni-
toring Program's time series of spring and summer chlorophyll a concentrations on
a station by station, segment by segment basis and compare these concentrations to
a range of season and salinity regime-based target chlorophyll a concentrations.
Target  concentrations, examples given in  Table IX-1, should be derived from
published chlorophyll a concentrations associated with an array of water quality and
biological community effects and impairments. The jurisdictions should then iden-
tify those stations/segments that are persistently higher than the applicable target
chlorophyll a concentrations with the individual jurisdictions developing their own
                   chapter ix •  Determining Where Numerical Chlorophyll a Criteria Should Apply

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     98
Table IX-1. Example numerical chlorophyll a thresholds (jug liter1) drawn from Ambient Water Quality Criteria
           for Dissolved Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for Chesapeake Bay and its Tidal Tributaries^
           reflective of an array of historical concentrations, ecosystem trophic status, potential harmful algal
           blooms, water quality impairments, user perceptions and state water quality standards.

Salinity
Regime
Tidal Fresh
Oligohaline


Mesohaline


Polyhaline



Chlorophyll a Concentration Thresholds (jig liter"1)
Historical
Chesapeake
Bay Levels 2'3
Spring: 4
Summer: 7
Mainstem
(annual): 3
Spring: 6
Summer: 8
Mainstem
(annual): 3
Spring: 6
Summer: 8
Mainstem
(annual): 4
Spring: 4
Summer: 4

Mainstem
(annual): 1
Ecosystem
Trophic Status
2-154






2-75



Phytoplankton
Reference
Communities'
Spring: 4.3
Summer: 8.6
Spring: 9.6
Summer: 6.0


Spring: 5.6
Summer: 7.1


Spring: 2.9
Summer: 4.4



Potentially
Harmful Algal
Blooms7
Microcystis
aerugmosa: 15
Microcystis
aerugmosa: 15


Prorocentrum
minimum: 5


Prorocentrum
minimum: 5



Water Quality
Impairments8
Water Clarity:
9-16
Dissolved
Oxygen:
4-5
Water Clarity
9-16
Dissolved
Oxygen:
7-12
Water Clarity:
<8
Dissolved
Oxygen:
5-6
Water Clarity:
<8

Dissolved
Oxygen:
4-5
User
Perceptions
Vermont Lakes:
<159
Minnesota
Lakes: < 1510










State Water
Quality
Standards"
AL: 16-27 (res.)
CN:2-15(meso.)
GA: 5-20 (lakes)
NC: 15(lakes,
res.)
NC: 40 (tidal)


NC: 40 (tidal)


NC: 40 (tidal)
HW: 2; 5 <10%;
10 <2%


Sources: 1. U.S. EPA 2003; 2. Olson 2002; 3. Harding and Perry 1997; 4. Wetzel
Novotnyand Olem 1994; 5. Smith. 1998, Molvaer 1997; 6. U.S. EPA 2003; 7. U.
Heiskary 1990; lO.Heiskary and Walker 1988; 11. U.S. EPA 2003.
                                                               2001, Ryding and Rast 1989, Smith etal. 1998,
                                                               S. EPA 2003; 8. U.S. EPA 2003; 9. Smeltzer and
                          decision rules for defining "persistently higher". The jurisdictions should finally
                          evaluate the degree of non-attainment of the dissolved oxygen and/or water clarity
                          criteria within surrounding or "downstream" tidal waters. If these  waters are in
                          attainment of the  dissolved oxygen and water clarity criteria, yet are persistently
                          higher than the applicable target chlorophyll a concentrations, then these waters
                          should be targeted for adoption of numerical chlorophyll a criteria.

                          The jurisdictions should also evaluate results  from Chesapeake Bay water quality
                          model-simulated  water quality conditions  with  achievement of  the  assigned
                          nitrogen, phosphorus and  sediment cap  load  allocations. The jurisdictions would
                          then identify those Chesapeake Bay Program segments where the  model simulated
                          surface chlorophyll a concentrations are above a range of season and salinity regime-
                          based target concentrations. The jurisdictions  are encouraged to factor in findings
                          from  state-generated local TMDL modeling  in the smaller tidal tributaries and
                          embayments (e.g., Nanticoke River in Delaware, Anacostia River  in the District of
                          Columbia and several  tidal tributaries  in Maryland) as  an  additional  source of
       chapter ix  •  Determining Where Numerical Chlorophyll a Criteria Should Apply

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                                                                                                     99
information  on anticipated  chlorophyll a concentrations upon attainment of the
dissolved oxygen and/or water clarity criteria. Given that these model-simulated
results reflect tidal water quality conditions estimated to attain the dissolved oxygen
criteria4, these segments should be targeted for adoption of numerical chlorophyll a.
The jurisdictions  should note that management-applicable Chesapeake Bay water
quality model results are not available for all 78 Chesapeake Bay Program segments
(Linker et al. 2002).
                           LITERATURE CITED

Harding, L. W. Jr. and E. S. Perry. 1997. Long-term increase of phytoplankton biomass in
Chesapeake Bay, 1950-1994. Marine Ecology Progress Series 157:3952.

Heiskary, S. A. and W. W. Walker. 1988. Developing phosphorus criteria for Minnesota lakes.
Lake and Reservoir Management 4:1-10.

Linker, L.C., G. W. Shenk, P. Wang, C. F. Cerco, A. J. Butt, P. J. Tango and R. W. Savidge.
2002. A  Comparison  of Chesapeake Bay Estuary  Model Calibration With 1985-1994
Observed Data and Method of Application to Water Quality Criteria.  Modeling Subcom-
mittee, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.

Molvaer, J., J. Knutzen, J. Magnusson, B.  Rygg, J. Skei and J. Sorensen. 1997. Environ-
mental quality  classification in  fjords and  coastal areas. Statens Forurensningstilsyn
TA1467, Norway. 36 pp.

Novotny V. and Olem H. 1994. Water Quality: Prevention, Identification and Management of
Diffuse Pollution. Van Nostrand Reinhold. New York, New York. 1054pp.

Olson, M.  2002. Benchmarks for nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll and suspended solids in
Chesapeake Bay.  Chesapeake Bay Program Technical Report Series, Chesapeake  Bay
Program, Annapolis, Maryland.

Ryding, S. O.  and W. Rast. 1989. The control of eutrophication of lakes and reservoirs. Man
and the Biosphere Series, Volume 1, UNESCO, Parthenon Publication Group, Park Ridge,
New Jersey. 314pp.

Smeltzer, E. and S. A. Heiskary. 1990. Analysis and Applications of Lake User Survey Data.
Lake and Reservoir Management 6(1):109-118.

Smith, V. H. 1998. Cultural eutrophication of inland, estuarine and coastal waters. In: Pace,
M. L. and P. M. Groffinan (eds.). Successes, Limitation and Frontiers in Ecosystem Science.
Springer-Verlag, New York, New York. Pp. 7-49.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2003. Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved
Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the  Chesapeake Bay and Its Tidal Tributaries.
EPA 903-R-03-002. Region III Chesapeake  Bay Program Office, Annapolis, Maryland.

Wetzel, R. G. 2001. Limnology—Lake and River Ecosystems, 3rd Edition. Academic Press,
New York, New York.
4The applicable water clarity may not be attained within the model simulated output given suspended
 sediment contributions to reduced water clarity conditions independent of the algal contribution to
 reduced water clarity conditions.
                        chapter ix  •  Determining Where Numerical Chlorophyll a Criteria Should Apply

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                                101
      appendix
Wetland Area, Segment
 Peri meter/Area/Volume
   and Water Quality
 Parameter Statistics for
    Chesapeake Bay
    Tidal Fresh and
 Oligohaline Segments

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102
  Table A-1. Wetland area, perimeter, surface area and volume statistics for Chesapeake Bay tidal fresh and
             oligohaline segments.
Chesapeake Bay Program Segment
Western Branch Patuxent River-tidal fresh region
Appomattox River-tidal fresh region
Piscataway Creek-tidal fresh region
Chester River- tidal fresh region
Pocomoke River-tidal fresh region
Nanticoke River-tidal fresh region
Mattawoman Creek-tidal fresh region
* Patuxent River- tidal fresh region
*Choptank River-tidal fresh region
Bohemia River-oligohaline region
Pocomoke River-oligohaline region
Back River-oligohaline region
C&D Canal-oligohaline region
Middle River-oligohaline region
Northeast River-tidal fresh region
* Patuxent River-oligohaline region
Chester River-oligohaline region
Nanticoke River-oligohaline region
*Choptank River-oligohaline region
Chickahominy River-oligohaline region
Bush River-oligohaline region
*Rappahannock River-oligohaline region
Gunpowder River-oligohaline region
Sassafras River-oligohaline region
Elk River-oligohaline region
*Rappahannock River- tidal fresh region
James River-tidal fresh region
Chesapeake Bay-tidal fresh region
James River-oligohaline region
* Potomac River-tidal fresh region
* Potomac River-oligohaline region
Chesapeake Bay-oligohaline region
Wetland
Acreage
(acres)
WBRTF
APPTF
PISTF
CHSTF
POCTF
NANTF
MATTF
PAXTF
CHOTF
BOHOH
POCOH
BACOH
C&DOH
MIDOH
NORTF
PAXOH
CHSOH
NANOH
CHOOH
CHKOH
BSHOH
RPPOH
GUNOH
SASOH
ELKOH
RPPTF
JMSTF
CB1TF
JMSOH
POTTF
POTOH
CB2OH
Segment
Perimeter
(meters)
5181
168938
15219
60350
77456
69276
37045
55373
153218
79964
116755
64832
35654
93914
40617
76397
124641
238038
142681
355816
107046
112097
163323
161366
138710
252716
562776
216814
271459
365926
312495
246410
Segment Segment Surface Area
Surface Area Volume to Volume
(meters2) (meters3) Ratio
131511
8011611
3708997
4084016
3998871
4608463
7280895
4408622
9466475
11927636
13821501
16175354
3565828
16214070
15817689
14243456
14790537
16455330
14477365
27969270
30542696
19536530
41998392
33085712
37270004
36503308
95301848
151620944
127749032
153841616
214963696
275239520

1510000
2850000
3362500
4470000
6615000
9500000
11025000
15322500
17000000
18000000
22375000
24130000
25000000
26500000
27180000
28875000
45000000
45125000
48562500
49250000
53580000
64250000
84187500
101250000
107437500
286187500
360000000
431500000
484750000
852250000
1237000000

5.3
1.3
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
   *Segments with similar characteristics or geographically close to the Mattaponi and Pamunkey segments.

   Source: Chesapeake Bay Program http://chesapeakebay.net/data
  appendix a

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                                                                                                      103
Table A-2. Summer average conditions in other tidal fresh and oligohaline Chesapeake Bay Program segments,
           2000-2002.
Water
CBP Column
Segment Layer
APPTF
APPTF
CB1TF
CB1TF
JMSTF
JMSTF
MATTF
NANTF
NANTF
NORTF
NORTF
PAXTF
PAXTF
PISTF
POCTF
POCTF
POTTF
POTTF
RPPTF
RPPTF
WBRTF
BACOH
BACOH
BOHOH
BOHOH
BSHOH
BSHOH
C&DOH
C&DOH
CB2OH
CB2OH
CHKOH
CHKOH
CHOOH
CHOOH
CHSOH
CHSOH
ELKOH
ELKOH
GUNOH
GUNOH
JMSOH
JMSOH
MIDOH
MIDOH
PAXOH
PAXOH
POTOH
POTOH
RPPOH
RPPOH
SASOH
SASOH
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
S
B
Water
Column
Depth
(meters)
0.7
5.7
0.5
4.8
0.7
8.8
0.3
0.5
4.1
0.5
1.8
0.2
9.4
0.2
0.5
4.9
0.5
10.9
0.7
5.1
0.0
0.5
0.8
0.5
1.8
0.5
1.2
0.5
12.3
0.5
11.7
0.7
3.9
0.5
7.5
0.5
4.0
0.5
11.4
0.5
0.9
0.7
10.1
0.5
2.7
0.5
3.6
0.5
7.8
0.7
7.2
0.5
5.2
Salinity
(PPO1
0.09
0.09
0.68
0.86
0.30
0.37
0.19
0.63
0.67
0.24
0.24
0.22
0.68
0.00
0.61
0.72
0.16
0.24
0.71
0.75
0.01
2.82
2.92
1.27
1.30
1.16
1.17
2.03
2.08
5.11
8.14
2.05
2.10
1.09
1.19
0.69
0.71
1.68
1.77
2.23
2.24
6.20
7.00
3.67
4.14
3.33
3.61
3.00
3.77
3.12
3.63
0.46
0.53
Temperature
(°C)
27.90
27.44
25.92
25.58
27.56
27.24
24.46
25.86
25.77
25.93
25.66
24.27
25.18
24.22
26.13
26.00
26.54
25.97
26.89
26.68
21.97
25.18
25.17
26.68
26.43
25.82
25.61
25.74
25.53
24.72
24.21
26.41
26.21
26.28
25.93
26.47
26.18
25.89
25.62
25.12
25.08
26.71
26.69
25.42
25.07
26.36
26.08
25.80
25.66
26.84
26.51
26.98
26.49
Dissolved Dissolved
Oxygen Oxygen
Concentration Deficit
(mg filer"1) (mg filer"1)
8.45
7.68
7.32
6.79
7.82
6.94
6.98
5.68
5.44
8.70
7.91
7.37
7.28
6.97
4.63
4.64
7.60
6.36
7.20
6.84
6.82
7.92
7.26
7.73
7.27
8.19
7.64
6.68
6.54
6.68
4.47
6.33
6.24
5.66
5.36
8.13
7.86
6.80
6.59
7.13
6.55
6.77
6.49
7.63
5.90
5.87
5.38
6.59
5.92
7.40
6.40
8.30
6.62
-0.50
0.31
0.79
1.36
0.13
1.04
1.38
2.45
2.69
-0.57
0.26
1.02
0.96
1.45
3.46
3.46
0.45
1.76
0.84
1.10
1.94
0.24
0.89
0.26
0.75
-0.05
0.53
1.41
1.57
1.41
3.57
1.68
1.78
2.40
2.74
-0.09
0.23
1.27
1.52
1.06
1.64
1.03
1.28
0.45
2.20
2.10
2.61
1.44
2.09
0.55
1.57
-0.32
1.43
Chlorophyll a
Concentration
(fig filer"1)
44.5

8.4
6.7
22.4

18.1
15.6
14.6
44.3
42.2
36.2
66.3
14.2
7.6
7.8
20.4
18.7
31.0

12.8
81.9
66.9
24.7
21.2
28.7
28.7
10.5
3.4
6.5
5.5
19.1

18.3
17.1
61.2
59.6
4.1
3.5
10.3
10.5
8.9

19.3
15.7
17.3
18.0
8.2
3.8
19.5

71.6
66.3
Tola!
Suspended Tolal
Sofids Nilrogen
Concenlralion Concenlralion
(mg filer"1) (mg filer"1)
35.5
67.7
8.0
10.1
15.9
75.1
8.1
23.1
50.4
22.0
25.7
34.4
99.9
10.3
12.4
25.8
13.0
35.1
23.4
37.1
37.1
24.9
23.9
21.6
22.6
24.0
25.8
17.8
30.7
9.9
24.6
24.7
62.5
28.2
47.5
53.2
65.9
11.7
25.7
16.3
18.8
22.8
73.5
10.1
13.7
28.6
56.1
12.1
50.9
21.9
73.3
23.2
31.9
1.0771
1.1839
1.1310
1.1603
0.9022
1.1113
0.9551
2.3553
2.3513
1.1431
1.1207
1.3724
1.3846
1.3197
1.6927
1.6005
1.5054
1.6021
0.9105
0.9543
1.1804
2.4796
2.1900
0.8554
0.9143
0.9170
0.9117
1.2866
1.2121
0.9548
0.8730
0.6205
0.7355
1.6772
1.8115
2.2028
2.1452
1.1244
1.1267
0.6558
0.6600
0.5089
0.6217
0.6698
0.6727
0.8689
0.9835
1.1141
1.1603
0.6160
0.8002
1.6423
1.5082
Tolal
Phosphorus
Concenlralion
(mg filer"1)
0.1169
0.1656
0.0389
0.0387
0.0989
0.1388
0.0608
0.0667
0.0891
0.0847
0.0876
0.1547
0.2731
0.0962
0.1206
0.1408
0.0769
0.1047
0.0776
0.0883
0.1868
0.2564
0.2347
0.0653
0.0666
0.0699
0.0696
0.0715
0.0808
0.0526
0.0675
0.0873
0.1338
0.1042
0.1311
0.1619
0.1747
0.0584
0.0736
0.0476
0.0489
0.0828
0.1202
0.0493
0.0478
0.1378
0.1912
0.0896
0.1258
0.0753
0.1198
0.1170
0.1254
Source: Chesapeake Bay Program http://chesapeakebay.net/data
                                                                                          appendix a

-------