United States Air and Radiation EPA420-D-00-001
Environmental Protection May 2000
Agency
&EPA Draft Regulatory Impact
Analysis for the
Proposed Heavy-Duty
Engine and Vehicle
Standards and Highway
Diesel Fuel Sulfur
Control Requirements
Rule
> Printed on Recycled Paper
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EPA420-D-00-001
May 2000
Assessment and Standards Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NOTICE
This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions,
It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data which are currently available.
The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of
technical, information and to inform the public of technical developments which
may form the basis for a final EPA decision, position, or regulatory action.
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Key results of this draft regulatory impact analysis are discussed below.
Health and Welfare Concerns
When revising emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles, the Agency considers the effects
of air pollutants emitted from heavy-duty vehicles on public health and welfare. As discussed in
more detail in Chapter II, the outdoor air quality in many areas of the country is expected to violate
federal health-based ambient air quality standards for ground level ozone and particulate matter
during the time when this rule will take effect. In addition, studies have associated diesel exhaust
with a variety of cancer and noncancer health effects. Emissions from heavy-duty vehicles
contribute to these air pollution problems, and the standards proposed in this rulemaking will result
in significant improvement in ambient air quality and public health and welfare.
Air Quality Benefits
The following table presents the total NOx, PM, and NMHC benefits from heavy-duty
engines that we anticipate from this proposed rule. Evaporative emission reductions are included in
the NMHC benefits.
Total Reductions from Heavy-Duty Engines for this Proposed Rule
(thousand short tons per year)
Calendar Year
2007
2010
2015
2020
2030
NOx
35
465
1400
2,020
2,760
PM
13
36
64
83
111
NMHC
12
71
165
230
305
Costs
Total annual costs are estimated to reach about $3 billion in 2010 (the year that the phase-in
of standards is completed). These costs increase gradually in subsequent years due to projected
growth in vehicle sales and fuel consumption.
in
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Heavy-Duty Standards / Diesel Fuel Draft RIA - May 2000
Lifetime per-vehicle cost impacts have also been estimated. These costs include the
incremental cost for new engine hardware, operating costs for closed crankcase filtration systems,
the incremental cost for low sulfur diesel fuel, and maintenance savings realized through the use of
low sulfur fuel.
Estimated Long Term Incremental Costs for Emission Control
(per vehicle costs, 1999 dollars)
Vehicle Weight
Class
Light
Heavy-Duty
Medium
Heavy-Duty
Heavy
Heavy-Duty
Urban Bus
Emission Control
Technologies
Hardware
Costs
$982
$1,188
$1,572
$1,252
Operating
Costs
$31
$46
$172
$120
Low Sulfur Fuel
Lifetime
Cost
$536
$1,004
$3,704
$4,364
Maintenance
Savings
($153)
($249)
($610)
($610)
Total
Lifetime Cost
for Control
$1,396
$1,989
$4,838
$5,126
Cost-Effectiveness
A comparison of the costs of our proposed program with the emission reductions it is
estimated to achieve leads us to conclude that it is a cost-effective means of reducing pollution. As
shown in Chapter VI, the cost-effectiveness of our proposed program falls within the range of cost-
effectiveness of other mobile and stationary source controls. For example, our recently promulgated
standards for Tier 2 vehicles and gasoline sulfur had similar cost-effectiveness to the standards we
are proposing today.
IV
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