United States Air and Radiation EPA420-D-00-001 Environmental Protection May 2000 Agency &EPA Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Proposed Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel Sulfur Control Requirements Rule > Printed on Recycled Paper ------- EPA420-D-00-001 May 2000 Assessment and Standards Division Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. Environmental Protection Agency NOTICE This technical report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions, It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data which are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical, information and to inform the public of technical developments which may form the basis for a final EPA decision, position, or regulatory action. ------- Executive Summary Executive Summary Key results of this draft regulatory impact analysis are discussed below. Health and Welfare Concerns When revising emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles, the Agency considers the effects of air pollutants emitted from heavy-duty vehicles on public health and welfare. As discussed in more detail in Chapter II, the outdoor air quality in many areas of the country is expected to violate federal health-based ambient air quality standards for ground level ozone and particulate matter during the time when this rule will take effect. In addition, studies have associated diesel exhaust with a variety of cancer and noncancer health effects. Emissions from heavy-duty vehicles contribute to these air pollution problems, and the standards proposed in this rulemaking will result in significant improvement in ambient air quality and public health and welfare. Air Quality Benefits The following table presents the total NOx, PM, and NMHC benefits from heavy-duty engines that we anticipate from this proposed rule. Evaporative emission reductions are included in the NMHC benefits. Total Reductions from Heavy-Duty Engines for this Proposed Rule (thousand short tons per year) Calendar Year 2007 2010 2015 2020 2030 NOx 35 465 1400 2,020 2,760 PM 13 36 64 83 111 NMHC 12 71 165 230 305 Costs Total annual costs are estimated to reach about $3 billion in 2010 (the year that the phase-in of standards is completed). These costs increase gradually in subsequent years due to projected growth in vehicle sales and fuel consumption. in ------- Heavy-Duty Standards / Diesel Fuel Draft RIA - May 2000 Lifetime per-vehicle cost impacts have also been estimated. These costs include the incremental cost for new engine hardware, operating costs for closed crankcase filtration systems, the incremental cost for low sulfur diesel fuel, and maintenance savings realized through the use of low sulfur fuel. Estimated Long Term Incremental Costs for Emission Control (per vehicle costs, 1999 dollars) Vehicle Weight Class Light Heavy-Duty Medium Heavy-Duty Heavy Heavy-Duty Urban Bus Emission Control Technologies Hardware Costs $982 $1,188 $1,572 $1,252 Operating Costs $31 $46 $172 $120 Low Sulfur Fuel Lifetime Cost $536 $1,004 $3,704 $4,364 Maintenance Savings ($153) ($249) ($610) ($610) Total Lifetime Cost for Control $1,396 $1,989 $4,838 $5,126 Cost-Effectiveness A comparison of the costs of our proposed program with the emission reductions it is estimated to achieve leads us to conclude that it is a cost-effective means of reducing pollution. As shown in Chapter VI, the cost-effectiveness of our proposed program falls within the range of cost- effectiveness of other mobile and stationary source controls. For example, our recently promulgated standards for Tier 2 vehicles and gasoline sulfur had similar cost-effectiveness to the standards we are proposing today. IV ------- |