&EPA
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PROCEDURES FOR DEVELOPING BASE YEAR AND FUTURE
YEAR MASS EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR THE NONROAD
DIESEL ENGINE RULEMAKING
-------
EPA-454/R-03-009
April 2003
PROCEDURES FOR DEVELOPING BASE YEAR
AND FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSION
INVENTORIES FOR THE NONROAD DIESEL ENGINE
RULEMAKING
Prepared by:
Alpine Geophysics, LLC
387 Pollard Mine Road
Burnsville, NC 28714
and
E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc.
3622 Lyckan Parkway, Suite 2002
Durham, NC 27707)
Prepared for
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Contract No. 68-D7-0067
Work Assignment No.5-10
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Emissions Monitoring and Analysis Division
Emission Factor and Inventory Group
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
-------
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AAMA
ASTM
BEA
CAA
CI
CNG
CO
DOE
EGU
EIA
EPA
F
FAA
FCM
FIPS
ft
ft/min
g/bhp-hr
GSP
HC
HDD
HDDV
HDGV
HON
hp
HPMS
I/M
IPM
LDDT
LDDV
LDGT1
LDGT2
LDGV
LEV
LNB
LPG
LTOs
m
American Automobile Manufacturers Association
American Society for Testing and Materials
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Clean Air Act
compression-ignition
compressed natural gas
carbon monoxide
U.S. Department of Energy
electric generating unit
Energy Information Administration
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Fahrenheit
Federal Aviation Administration
Fuel Consumption Model
Federal Information Processing Standard
feet
feet per minute
grams per brake horsepower-hour
Gross State Product
hydrocarbon
heavy-duty diesel
heavy-duty diesel vehicle
heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
Hazardous Organic NESHAP
horsepower
Highway Performance Monitoring System
Inspection and Maintenance
Integrated Planning Model
light-duty diesel truck
light-duty diesel vehicle
light-duty gasoline truck (less than 6,000 pounds in weight)
light-duty gasoline truck (6,000 to 8,500 pounds in weight)
light-duty gasoline vehicle
Low-Emission Vehicle
low-NOx burner
liquid petroleum gas
Landing-Takeoff Operations
meter
-------
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS (continued)
MACT
MC
MMBtu
NAAQS
NESHAP
NET
NH3
NLEV
NMHC
NMOG
NOX
OBD
OTAG
OTAQ
OTC
OTR
PM
PM10
PM25
POTWs
ppm
psi
RACT
REMSAD
RFG
RSD
RVP
SCCs
SCR
SI
SIC
SIP
SNCR
SO2
SOCMI
SOX
SSD
TLEV
tpd
tpy
TSDFs
maximum achievable control technology
motorcycle
million British thermal units
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants
National Emission Trends
ammonia
National Low Emission Vehicle
nonmethane hydrocarbon
Nonmethane Organic Gas
oxides of nitrogen
on-board diagnostic
Ozone Transport Assessment Group
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
Ozone Transport Commission
Ozone Transport Region
particulate matter
primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to
10 micrometers
primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to
2.5 micrometers
Publicly-Owned Treatment Works
parts per million
pounds per square inch
reasonably available control technology
Regulatory Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition
reformulated gasoline
Regulatory Support Document
Reid vapor pressure
Source Classification Codes
selective catalytic reduction
spark-ignition
Standard Industrial Classification
State Implementation Plan
Selective Noncatalytic Reduction
sulfur dioxide
Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry
oxides of sulfur
summer season daily
transitional LEV
tons per day
tons per year
treatment, storage, and disposal facilities
-------
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS (continued)
UAM-V
ULEV
U.S.
USDA
UTM
VMT
VOC
Urban Airshed Model
Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle
United States
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Universal Transverse Mercator
vehicle miles traveled
volatile organic compound
-------
CHAPTER I
BACKGROUND
To assist future State and Federal implementation of the Nonroad Diesel mobile source
emission standards, the United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is
developing national annual and temporal emission inventories and applying the Comprehensive
Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx)and Regulatory Modeling System for Aerosols and
Deposition (REMSAD) to examine the regional ozone and particulate matter (PM) concentration
response to a series of emission control strategies. The purpose of this report is to describe the
procedures and assumptions used to develop the mass emissions inventories modeled in this
analysis.
The emission inventories developed to support the nonroad rulemaking include the
following:
1996 Base Year;
2020 Base Case;
2020 Control Case;
2030 Base Case; and
2030 Control Case.
These national inventories are prepared for the 48 contiguous States at the county-level for
on-highway mobile, electric generating unit (EGU), non-EGU point, stationary area, and
nonroad sources. The inventories do not include Alaska and Hawaii. The inventories contain
annual and typical summer season day emissions for the following pollutants: oxides of
nitrogen (NOX), volatile organic compounds (VOC), carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of sulfur
(SOX), primary particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10
micrometers and 2.5 micrometers (PM10 and PM25), and ammonia (NH3). The 2020 and 2030
Base Case inventories are prepared by applying growth and control assumptions to the 1996
Base Year inventory. The 2020 and 2030 Control Case inventories are developed from the 2020
and 2030 Base Case inventories, respectively, by applying nonroad diesel control assumptions to
the nonroad emission source sectors. The growth and control assumptions used to prepare the
2020 and 2030 inventories are documented in this report.
Chapters II through VI of this report document the inventories for the EGU, non-EGU
point, stationary area, nonroad, and on-highway vehicle source sectors. The chapter for each
sector documents the procedures and assumptions applied to prepare the mass emissions
inventories for the 1996 Base Year; 2020 and 2030 Base Cases; and 2020 and 2030 Control
Cases.
-------
CHAPTER II
ELECTRICITY GENERATING UNITS (EGUs)
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
The 1996 base year emissions inventory for EGUs is the 1996 National Emission Trends
(NET) point source inventory version 3.12 (EPA, 2000a). This inventory includes both annual
and typical summer season day (SSD) emissions forNOx, VOC, CO, SOX, PM10, PM25, andNH3.
Inventory records with Source Classification Codes (SCCs) of lOlxxxxx and 201xxxxx were
extracted from the NET inventory to develop the 1996 EGU inventory.
B. 2020 AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
Projection year unit-level output files from the EPA Modeling Applications (v.2.1) of the
Integrated Planning Model (IPM) were provided to Pechan by EPA for the EGU sector for 2020.
These were the same files as modeled in the base case emission scenarios of the Clear Skies
Initiative and includes a court remanded version of the Regional Transport NOx SIP Call
reductions which excluded the additional control of emissions in Georgia and Missouri. The
2020 IPM output file was also used to represent EGU projections for 2030. This file includes
heat input, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, NOX emissions, and unit characteristics such as prime
mover (boiler, gas turbine), primary fuel, bottom type, and firing type. . This section focuses on
the steps used to create the future year mass emissions inventories for 2020 and 2030, by adding
to the IPM files emissions for VOC, CO, PM10, PM2 5, and NH3, as well as data elements needed
for modeling (e.g., county codes, coordinates, and stack parameters). Note that the 2030 mass
emissions file is identical to the 2020 file.
The data elements included in the original IPM parsed data sets are shown in Table II-1.
The data sets include unit-level information for all existing or known planned units. For new
units (additional capacity needed to meet generation demands), state-level estimates by plant
type (prime mover) and fuel type are provided. Details about the additional or updated items for
the final 2020 and 2030 emission files are discussed below.
1. ORISID AND BLRID
Unique utility plant (ORISID) and unit (BLRID) identifiers are provided in the original
IPM parsed data set. These two variables were included in the emission inventories but were not
reviewed for accuracy because of time and resource constraints associated with preparing the
inventories for all sectors.
II-1
-------
Table 11-1
Data Elements Provided in EGU Projection Files IPM Parsed Data Sets
Data Elements Description
Unit ID IPM Unit ID
Plant Name Plant name
Plant Type Combined cycle, coal steam, oil/gas steam, turbine, other
State Name State name
State Code Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) State code
County Name County name (sometimes missing)
County Code FIPS county code (sometimes missing)
ORIS Code ORIS plant code for those units assigned codes, IPM plant code otherwise
Blr ORIS boiler or unit code where available, otherwise IPM unit code
Capacity Boiler/unit capacity (MW)
July Day Heat July day heat input (109 Btu/day)
Fuel Type Primary fuel burned: coal, gas, natural gas, none, refuse, waste coal, wood
waste
Bottom Boiler bottom type: dry, wet, other, unknown, or blank
Firing Firing type: cell, cyclone, tangential, vertical, well, wet, other, or unknown
Existing SO2/NOX Controls Existing control for SO2 and/or NOX - scrubbed, unscrubbed, or blank
Retrofit SO2/NOX Controls Indicator of unit retrofit controls; coal to combined cycle, gas reburn, oil/gas
selective noncatalytic reduction (SNCR), oil/gas to combined cycle,
retirement, coal selective catalytic reduction (SCR), coal scrubber, coal
SNCR, or blank
Typical July Day NOX1 Typical July day NOX emissions (tons/day)
Ash Content Coal ash content (for fuel type - coal only)
Fuel Sum 5-month summer heat input (1012 Btu)
Fuel Tot Annual heat input (1012 Btu)
NOX Sum 5-month NOX emissions (103 Ton)
NOX Tot Annual NOX emissions (103 Ton)
SO7 Tot Annual SO7 emissions (103 Ton)
1 Not used in developing modeling files.
II-2
-------
2. County Identifiers
For those units with no county identifiers, counties available in cross-reference files
developed for the NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call EGU file and other prior analyses
were utilized to identify and assign the county code. Plants were matched to other inventories by
State and plant name in some cases. Others were matched to Energy Information Administration
(EIA)-860 planned unit files or to North American Electric Reliability Council reports to identify
the county.
3. Latitude and Longitude
Latitude and longitude coordinates were assigned at the plant level and were taken from a
data base file developed by Pechan. This file includes coordinates from other inventories,
including the NET inventory and the Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) inventory,
where units were matched to these inventories at the boiler or plant level. For units that have
ORIS IDs that did not match to this file, county centroids were assigned.
4. SCC
The SCC is needed to determine the appropriate emission rates to use for the additional
pollutants and to incorporate default stack parameters for units that do not match to existing
inventories. SCCs were assigned by first matching plant (ORISID) and unit (BLRID) identifiers
to existing inventories and then by assigning SCCs based on the unit, fuel, firing, and bottom
types. In cases where SCCs taken from other inventories indicate a fuel other than that specified
in the IPM unit-level file, SCCs were updated based on the indicated fuel, unit, bottom, and
firing types.
5. Stack Parameters
Stack parameters were added to the EGU file by matching to other inventories. For units
where matches to other inventories could not be made, default parameters were assigned by
SCC. These default parameters are shown in Table II-2. Stack flow rate, temperature, diameter,
height, and velocity were quality assured using the ranges supplied by EPA (Stella, 2000); all
stack flow values were then recalculated using the algorithm specified in a technical
memorandum to EPA (Pechan-Avanti, 2000).
6. Emissions
Emissions of VOC, CO, PM10, PM25, and NH3 were added to the inventory by applying
average fuel-specific heat content and updated emission rates (based on updated AP-42
II-:
-------
Table 11-2
Default Stack Parameters for Utility Boilers
sec
10100101
10100201
10100202
10100203
10100204
10100212
10100217
10100221
10100222
10100223
10100226
10100301
10100302
10100303
10100401
10100404
10100601
10100604
10101201
20100201
20100202
Stack
Temp.
(degrees F)
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
175
300
300
300
300
175
300
300
Stack
Height
(feet)
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
570
290
290
280
280
570
280
280
Stack
Diameter
(feet)
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
12
12
12
12
24
12
12
Stack
Flow
(ft3/sec)
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
16286
3619
3619
2601
2601
16286
2601
2601
uncontrolled emission factors) to the reported heat input for each unit. For PM10 and PM2 5, the
reported ash content was also utilized along with control efficiency data obtained from other
inventories. Condensible PM was not included in the estimate of PM10 or PM2 5 emissions. A
default PM control efficiency of 90 percent was applied to all coal-fired units which did not
match to other inventories.
II-4
-------
7.
New Units
The IPM data sets provide projected heat input from new units by prime mover and fuel
type. This projected heat input was divided into individual new units based on the model plant
parameters shown in Table II-3. New units were then allocated to existing unit sites based on a
hierarchy that avoids ozone nonattainment areas (Pechan-Avanti, 1997'a). After siting the units,
SCCs were assigned based on prime mover and fuel type. Default stack parameters and
emissions were added using the same methods applied for existing units. Since the new units are
defined as "new" after 1996, and more recent data for new units were available, some new units
could be matched to the newer data to obtain SCCs.
C.
MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY FILES
After adding the additional parameters to the IPM unit-level file, the final mass emission
inventories were prepared. The 5-month (May through September) heat input was allocated to
the month and then divided by the number of days in the month. Typical SSD emissions were
calculated using the same procedure, assuming that the emission rate remained the same across
these 5 months. Because the 2020 IPM output file was used to represent EGU projections for
2030, the mass and modeling files for 2020 and 2030 are identical.
The structure for the base year and projection year mass emission inventories is shown in
Tables II-4 and II-5. The structures differ since the base year inventory was taken directly from
the NET, while the projection year inventory was based on the IPM data set, which provides
different information in some cases.
Table 11-3
Model Plant Parameters for Projected New Utility Units by Type
Plant Parameters
Fuel Type
Unit Capacity (megawatts)
sec
Stack Height [feet (ft)]
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (F)
Exhaust Gas Flow Rate (ft3/sec)
Stack Gas Velocity (ft/sec)
Combined Cycle
Natural Gas
225
20100201
280
12
300
2,601
23
Gas Turbine
Natural Gas
80
20100201
280
12
300
2,601
23
Coal
Coal
500
10100201
570
24
175
16,286
36
II-5
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Table 11-4
Structure for 1996 EGU Mass Emissions File
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
STACKID
SEGMENT
PLANT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
STKVEL
BOILCAP
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
DAYS
WEEKS
THRUPUT
MAXRATE
HEATCON
SULFCON
ASHCON
NETDC
SIC
LATC
LONG
VOC_CE
NOX_CE
CO_CE
SO2_CE
PM10_CE
PM25_CE
NH3_CE
VOC_CPRI
NOX_CPRI
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
15
15
12
2
40
10
4
6
4
10
9
8
3
3
3
3
2
1
2
11
12
8
5
5
9
4
9
9
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
3
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
2
2
3
0
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
Stack ID
Segment ID
Plant Name
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Stack Velocity (ft/sec)
Boiler Design Capacity
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Throughput Rate (SCC units/year)
Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day)
Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit)
Sulfur Content (mass percent)
Ash Content (mass percent)
Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW)
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Code
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
VOC Control Efficiency (%)
NOX Control Efficiency (%)
CO Control Efficiency (%)
SO2 Control Efficiency (%)
PM10 Control Efficiency (%)
PM25 Control Efficiency (%)
NH3 Control Efficiency (%)
VOC Primary Control Equipment Code
NOX Primary Control Equipment Code
11-6
-------
Table II-IV (continued)
Variable
CO_CPRI
SO2_CPRI
PM10_CPRI
PM25_CPRI
NH3_CPRI
VOC_CSEC
NOX_CSEC
CO_CSEC
S02_CSEC
PM10_CSEC
PM25_CSEC
NH3_CSEC
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOX_OSD
COJDSD
SO2_OSD
PM10_OSD
PM25_OSD
NH3_OSD
VOC_RE
NOX_RE
CO_RE
S02_RE
PM10_RE
PM25_RE
NH3 RE
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
CO Primary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code
VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code
NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code
CO Secondary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
Summer Day VOC (tons)
Summer Day NOX (tons)
Summer Day CO (tons)
Summer Day SO2 (tons)
Summer Day PM10 (tons)
Summer Day PM25 (tons)
Summer Day NH3 (tons)
VOC Rule Effectiveness (%)
NOX Rule Effectiveness (%)
CO Rule Effectiveness (%)
SO2 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM10 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%)
NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%)
II-7
-------
Table 11-5
Structure for 2020 and 2030 EGU Mass Emissions Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
STACKID
SEGMENT
PLANT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
LAT
LON
VOC_WIN
VOC_SUM
NOX_WIN
NOX_SUM
CO_WIN
CO_SUM
SO2_WIN
SO2_SUM
PM10_WIN
PM10_SUM
PM25_WIN
PM25_SUM
NH3_WIN
NH3 SUM
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
15
15
12
2
40
10
4
6
4
10
9
9
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
Stack ID
Segment ID
Plant Name
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
7-Month Winter VOC (tons)
5-Month Summer VOC (tons)
7-Month Winter NOX (tons)
5-Month Summer NOX (tons)
7-Month Winter CO (tons)
5-Month Summer CO (tons)
7-Month Winter SO2 (tons)
5-Month Summer SO2 (tons)
7-Month Winter PM10 (tons)
5-Month Summer PM10 (tons)
7-Month Winter PM25 (tons)
5-Month Summer PM25 (tons)
7-Month Winter NH3 (tons)
5-Month Summer NH3 (tons)
II-8
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CHAPTER III
NON-EGU POINT SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
The 1996 base year inventory for non-EGUs is the 1996 NET point source inventory
Version 3.12 (EPA, 2000a). This inventory includes both annual and typical summer season day
(SSD) emissions for NOX, VOC, CO, SOX, PM10, PM25, and NH3. Inventory records with SCCs
of lOlxxxxx and 201xxxxx were excluded from the non-EGU inventory because they are
included in the EGU inventory.
Latitude and longitude coordinates and stack parameters were corrected for several sources.
For some sources, multiple SCCs were listed under a single point, stack, and segment. New non-
duplicate segment IDs were created for the mass emissions file to ensure that each record had a
unique identification code for inclusion in the emissions processor input files.
B. 2020 AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
Future year base case emissions for 2020 and 2030 were grown from the 1996 base year
mass emission inventory utilizing Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Gross State Product
(GSP) growth factors at the State level by 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code.
Control measures reflecting Clean Air Act (CAA) requirements were then incorporated. Two
separate mass emissions inventories were created for each year to reflect emissions without and
with the effects of the NOX SIP Call control requirements.
1. Growth Assumptions
The 1995 BEA GSP projections (BEA, 1995) by 2-digit SIC code were applied to estimate
changes in activity between 1996 and 2020 and 2030 for the non-EGU point source sector. For
fuel combustion sectors, energy adjustment factors were also applied to the base year emission
inventory. After applying the changes in activity, additional controls were added to reflect the
alternative scenarios.
EPA guidance for projecting emissions (EPA, 1991) lists the following economic variables
(in order of preference) for projecting emissions:
product output;
• value added;
• earnings; and
• employment.
III-l
-------
In the absence of product output projections, EPA guidance recommends value added
projections. Value added is the difference between the value of industry outputs and inputs.
BEA GSP projections represent a measure of value added, and are a fuller measure of growth
than BEA's earnings projections because earnings represents only one component of GSP. GSP
reflects the difference between revenues from selling a product and the amounts paid for inputs
from other industries. By incorporating inputs to production, GSP reflects future changes in
production processes, efficiency, and technological changes. A comparison of BEA's 1995 GSP
projections and BEA's 1990 earnings projections indicates that GSP growth factors are slightly
higher than the earnings data. This is most often true for capital-intensive industries (e.g.,
manufacturing) than for labor-intensive industries (e.g., services). Components of GSP include
payments to capital. This is an important distinction to make because it implicitly reflects the
effect of factor substitution in production. As discussed in EPA's projections guidance, factor
substitution should be included in growth projections, making value added data preferable to
earnings data for projecting emissions.
The 1995 BEA industry GSP projections by State are available at the 2-digit SIC code level.
For each record in the non-EGU point source 1996 base year inventory, a link was established
between the State FIPS code, the SIC code, and the applicable BEA GSP growth factor.
National BEA GSP annually compounded growth rates by industry are listed in Table III-l.
For fuel combustion sources, factors were applied to the 1996 base year emissions to
account for improvements in energy efficiency between 1996 and 2020 and 2030. These factors,
developed from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) publication Annual Energy Outlook 1999,
account for increases in fuel and process efficiency in future years (DOE, 1998). Basically, less
fuel will be needed to provide the same amount of energy (generally in the form of steam) to an
industrial process and the amount of energy needed per unit output will also decrease as
processes become more efficient. For example, DOE projects natural gas consumption in the
commercial sector to rise from 3.392 quadrillion Btu in 1996 to 3.997 quadrillion Btu in 2020.
Over this same time-frame, DOE projects commercial building square footage to increase from
59.5 billion square feet to 72.9 billion square feet. To reflect the projected change in natural gas
consumed per square foot of commercial building space, natural gas energy intensity factors
were calculated for 1996 and each projection year. For example, 0.2475 quadrillion Btu/square
foot of natural gas is projected to be consumed in 2020 versus 0.2551 quadrillion Btu/square foot
in 1996. For all commercial sector natural gas source categories, the BEA commercial sector
growth factors are multiplied by 0.97, which represents the ratio of the 2020 energy intensity
factor for commercial sector natural gas to the 1996 energy intensity factor for commercial
natural gas. Similar ratios were calculated and applied for other fuels used in the commercial
sector, and for all fuels used in the residential and industrial energy sectors. These adjustments
were based on those used in the NET inventory projections (EPA, 2000a).
III-2
-------
Table 111-1
BEA National GSP Growth Forecasts
Industry (SIC Code)
All-Industry Total
Farm (01)
Nonfarm (02)
Agricultural services (07, 08, 09)
Mining (10, 12, 13, 14)
Metal mining (10)
Coal mining (12)
Oil and gas extraction (13)
Nonmetallic minerals (14)
Construction (15, 16, 17)
Manufacturing (20 - 39)
Durable goods
Lumber and wood products (24)
Furniture and fixtures (25)
Stone, clay, and glass products (32)
Primary metals (33)
Fabricated metals (34)
Industrial machinery (35)
Electronic equipment (36)
Motor vehicles and equipment (371)
Other transportation equipment (37, excluding 371)
Instruments and related products (38)
Miscellaneous manufacturing (39)
Nondurable Goods
Food and kindred products (20)
Tobacco products (21)
Textile mill products (22)
Apparel and other textile products (23)
Paper products (26)
Printing and publishing (27)
Chemicals and allied products (28)
Petroleum and coal products (29)
Rubber and plastics products (30)
Leather and leather products (31)
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2020
1.5
1.5
3.2
2.7
2.1
0.2
1.2
1.1
0.7
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.8
2.6
1.9
1.0
2.0
1.3
1.6
1.1
-2.5
1.0
1.4
1.8
0.7
1.3
1.1
2.5
-0.1
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2030
1.2
1.2
2.7
2.3
1.7
0.3
1.1
1.0
0.7
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.8
2.1
1.6
1.0
1.8
1.3
1.4
1.1
-2.2
1.0
1.2
1.6
0.7
1.3
1.1
2.2
-0.1
III-:
-------
Table 111-1 (continued)
Industry (SIC Code)
Transportation and Public Utilities (40 - 49)
Railroad transportation (40)
Local and interurban transit (41)
Trucking and warehousing (42)
Water transportation (44)
Transportation by air (45)
Pipelines (46)
Transportation services (47)
Communications (48)
Utilities (49) [for non-EGU source types]
Wholesale and Retail Trade (50 - 59)
Wholesale trade (50, 51)
Retail trade (52 - 59)
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (60 - 67)
Banks and investment (60, 61 , 62, 67)
Insurance (63, 64)
Real estate (65)
Services (70 - 89)
Hotels and other lodging (70)
Personal services (72)
Business services (73)
Auto repair and parking (75)
Amusement (79)
Health services (80)
Legal services (81)
Educational services (82)
Social services (83)
Private households (88)
Other services (84, 86, 89)
Government
Federal, civilian
Federal, military
State and local
Population
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2020
2.4
1.3
1.8
0.3
2.8
0.9
2.4
2.4
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.3
1.7
1.8
1.9
0.9
2.4
1.5
2.4
2.0
1.3
1.6
2.3
0.8
2.3
0.4
0.2
1.3
0.8
Annual Growth
(% per year)
1996 to 2030
2.0
1.3
1.6
0.4
2.4
0.8
2.1
2.1
1.5
1.8
1.6
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.9
2.0
1.3
2.1
1.8
1.2
1.5
2.0
0.8
2.0
0.5
0.4
1.2
0.8
SOURCE: Developed from BEA, 1995.
III-4
-------
2. Control Assumptions
Since the base year inventory for this effort is 1996, VOC and NOx reasonably available
control technology (RACT) requirements were assumed to have already been implemented in 1-
hr ozone nonattainment areas. So, for stationary sources, CAA controls include Federal
initiatives as shown in Table III-2 for point sources. Maximum achievable control technology
(MACT) controls were also applied to identified source categories as shown in Tables III-3 and
III-4.
NOX emissions for the 20 States (22 original SIP Call States plus the District of Columbia,
minus Wisconsin, Georgia, and Missouri) covered by the NOX SIP Call were also reduced to
reflect the NOX SIP Call requirements. The NOX SIP Call controls were applied to a 2007 base
case inventory. For the 2020 and 2030 base case inventories, sources affected by the NOX SIP
Call were capped at 2007 emission levels.
The NOX SIP Call was modeled by first identifying the sources in the 1996 NET inventory
which are large, and are within the source categories covered under the SIP Call (EPA, 1999a).
This procedure was performed by first matching the non-EGU point sources in the 1996 NET
inventory file with the large sources in the NOX SIP Call data base. This was computer matching
that required that the numeric identifiers in each file be identical at the State, county, plant, and
point level. After this exercise was performed, there were 633 sources in the 1996 NET
inventory that were identified as large sources affected by the NOX SIP Call. Because this
included less than 30 percent of the 2,216 large sources in the NOX SIP Call control region,
additional steps were taken to identify the remaining large, affected sources in the 1996 NET
non-EGU point source file. These steps were applied separately to the four major source
categories that are affected by the SIP Call, as follows:
1. For boilers, all sources in the SIP Call-affected States with a boiler design capacity in
the 1996 NET file greater than or equal to 250 million British thermal units (MMBtu)
were deemed to be large sources.
2. For turbines, all sources in the SIP Call-affected States with a boiler design capacity in
the 1996 NET file greater than or equal to 250 MMBtu were tagged as large sources.
3. For 1C engines, all sources with 1996 NOX emissions greater than 1 ton per day were
tagged as large sources.
4. For cement manufacturing, all sources with 1996 NOX emissions greater than 1 ton per
day were tagged as large sources.
Once the large sources were determined, the following percentages were applied according
to the source category affected:
Industrial Boilers 60%
Gas Turbines 60%
Internal Combustion Engines 90%
Cement Manufacturing 30%
Two estimates of NOX emissions were calculated for non-EGU point sources to reflect ozone
versus non-ozone season emission differences for the NOX controls expected to be operating only
m-5
-------
during the 5-month ozone season. The typical SSD emission estimates incorporate the effects of
NOX SIP Call controls. Annual NOX emission estimates are the sum of 5-month ozone season
NOX emissions, plus 7-month (October-April) NOX emissions. Table III-5 shows the source
types affected by the NOX SIP Call and describes which controls were applied to each source
type. For the source categories that are affected by the NOX SIP Call, non-ozone season
emissions were estimated using the same control percentages listed above if the dominant source
type for that control device is expected to be one that provides year-round emission reductions.
For seasonal controls, such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR) or selective non-catalytic
reduction (SNCR) applications to industrial boilers and cement kilns, NOX controls were not
applied during the 7-month non-ozone season when NOX emissions were estimated. Table III-5
lists the primary NOX control technology assumed for each category.
Table 111-2
Point Source CAA Baseline Control Assumptions
Source Category Pollutant Control Efficiency (%)*
National Rules
Marine vessel loading: petroleum liquids VOC 80
Treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) VOC 96
Municipal solid waste landfills VOC 82
NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels. If NET96 control efficiencies were reported as lower than the applied control efficiency
assumptions, an uncontrolled emission value was first calculated by removing this NET96 reported value and then a new
emission estimate was calculated by applying the new control efficiency. If the NET96 control efficiency was higher than the
applied control efficiency assumptions, no control efficiency changes were made to the source in the projection.
111-6
-------
Table 111-3
Point Source MACT Control Assumptions
VOC Control
Source Category Efficiency (%)*
Benzene National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) (national)
By-product coke mfg 85
By-product coke - flushing-liquor circulation tank 95
By-product coke - excess-NH3 liquor tank 98
By-product coke mfg. - tar storage 98
By-product coke mfg. - light oil sump 98
By-product coke mfg. - light oil dec/cond vents 98
By-product coke mfg. - tar bottom final cooler 81
By-product coke mfg. - naphthalene processing 100
By-product coke mfg. - equipment leaks 83
By-product coke manufacture - other 94
By-product coke manufacture - oven charging 94
Coke ovens - door and topside leaks 94
Coke oven by-product plants 94
2-Year MACT (national)
Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry (SOCMI) Hazardous Organic NESHAP (HON)
-SOCMI processes 79
- Volatile organic liquid storage 95
- SOCMI fugitives (equipment leak detection and repair) 60
- SOCMI wastewater 0
- Ethylene oxide manufacture 98
- Phenol manufacture 98
- Acrylonitrile manufacture 98
- Polypropylene manufacture 98
- Polyethylene manufacture 98
- Ethylene manufacture 98
Dry Cleaning
- Perchloroethylene 95
- Other 70
4^-Year MACT (national)
TSDFs (offsite waste operations) 96
Shipbuilding and repair 24
Polymers and resins II 78
Polymers and resins IV 70
Styrene-butadiene rubber manufacture (polymers & resins group I) 70
Wood furniture surface coating 30
Aircraft surface coating (aerospace) 60
Petroleum Refineries: other sources
- Fixed roof petroleum product tanks 98
- Fixed roof gasoline tanks 96
- External floating roof petroleum product tanks 90
- External floating roof gasoline tanks 95
- Petroleum refinery wastewater treatment 72
- Petroleum refinery fugitives 72
- Petroleum refineries - Slowdown w/o control 78
-Vacuum distillation 72
m-7
-------
Table 111-3 (continued)
VOC Control
Source Category Efficiency (%)*
Halogenated Solvent Cleaners
- Open top degreasing - halogenated 63
- In-line (conveyorized) degreasing - halogenated 39
Printing
- Flexographic 32
- Gravure 27
Gasoline Marketing
- Storage 5
-Splash loading 99
- Balanced loading 87
-Submerged loading 99
- Transit 5
- Leaks 39
7/10-Year MACT (national)
Paint and varnish manufacture 35
Rubber tire manufacture 70
Green tire spray 90
Automobile surface coating 79
Beverage can surface coating 57
Paper surface coating 78
Flatwood surface coating 90
Fabric printing 80
Metal surface coating 90
Plastic parts surface coating 45
Pulp and paper production 70
Agricultural chemical production 79
Pharmaceutical production 79
Polyesters 70
Fabric coating 70
Petroleum refineries - fluid catalytic cracking 70
Oil and natural gas production 90
Explosives 70
Plywood/particle board 70
Reinforced plastics 70
Publicly-Owned Treatment Works (POTWs) 70
Phthalate plasticizers 70
Polymers and resins III 78
Rayon production 70
Polyvinyl chloride 70
Spandex production 70
Nylon 6 production 70
Alkyd resins 70
Polyester resins 70
Chelating agents 70
NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels. If NET96 control efficiencies were reported as lower than the applied control efficiency
assumptions, an uncontrolled emission value was first calculated by removing this NET96 reported value and then a new
emission estimate was calculated by applying the new control efficiency. If the NET96 control efficiency was higher than the
applied control efficiency assumptions, no control efficiency changes were made to the source in the projection.
m-8
-------
Table 111-3 (continued)
m-9
-------
Table 111-4
Non-VOC Related MACT Assumptions
Source Category
Municipal Waste Combustors
Cement Manufacturing
Secondary Aluminum
Medical Waste Incineration
Hazardous Waste Incineration
Pollutant
PM
S02
PM
PM
PM
NOx
SO2
PM
Percentage Reduction (%)*
30
50
90
90
88
20
20
36
NOTE: *From uncontrolled levels. If NET96 control efficiencies were reported as lower than the applied control efficiency
assumptions, an uncontrolled emission value was first calculated by removing this NET96 reported value and then a new emission
estimate was calculated by applying the new control efficiency. If the NET96 control efficiency was higher than the applied control
efficiency assumptions, no control efficiency changes were made to the source in the projection.
Ill-10
-------
Table 111-5
NOX SIP Call Control Application
Source Type Description
Industrial Boilers (non-coal)
Turbines
Cement Kilns (wet)
Reciprocating 1C Engines
Cement Kilns (dry)
Industrial Boilers (coal)
Cement Kilns (coal)
NOX Control
Year-round application
LNB and LNB plus flue gas
recirculation
LNB plus water injection
Mid-kiln firing
Low emission combustion
Mid-kiln firing
5-month ozone season application
SCRorSNCR
SCRorSNCR
Cost Pod Number
15
16
17
41
42
43
23
24
50
34
21
22
46
33
11
12
13
14
81
Cost Pod Name
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
Gas Turbines
Gas Turbines
Gas Turbines
Cement Mfg. (wet)
1C Engines
1C Engines
1C Engines
Cement Mfg. (dry)
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
ICI Boilers
Cement Kiln
Cost Pod Fuel Type
Residual Oil
Distillate Oil
Natural Gas
Process Gas
Coke
LPG
Oil
Natural Gas
Jet Fuel
NA
Oil
Gas
Gas, Diesel, LPG
NA
Coal/Wall
Coal/FBC
Coal/Stoker
Coal/Cyclone
Coal
Notes: LNB = low-NOx burners; ICI = industrial, commercial, and institutional; LPG = liquified petroleum gas; NA = not applicable;
SCR = selective catalytic reduction; and SNCR = selective non-catalytic reduction.
-------
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY FILES
The structures for the mass emission inventories are detailed in Tables III-7 and III-8, as the
base year and future year inventories differed. Data elements included in the base year inventory
and excluded from the future year inventories include the pollutant emission factor (-EMF),
primary control equipment code (-CPRI), and secondary control equipment code (-CSEC).
Ill-12
-------
Table 111-7
Structure for 1996 Base Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions File
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
STACKID
SEGMENT
PLANT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
STKVEL
BOILCAP
CAP UNITS
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
DAYS
WEEKS
THRUPUT
MAXRATE
HEATCON
SULFCON
ASHCON
NETDC
SIC
LATC
LONG
VOC CE
NOX_CE
CO CE
S02 CE
PM10_CE
PM25 CE
NH3_CE
VOC CPRI
NOX CPRI
CO_CPRI
SO2 CPRI
PM10_CPRI
PM25_CPRI
NH3 CPRI
VOC_CSEC
NOX CSEC
CO CSEC
S02 CSEC
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Lenqth
2
3
15
15
12
2
40
10
4
6
4
10
9
8
1
3
3
3
3
2
1
2
11
12
8
5
5
9
4
9
9
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
2
2
3
0
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
Stack ID
Segment ID
Plant Name
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Stack Velocity (ft/see)
Boiler Design Capacity (MMBtu/hour)
Capacity Unit Code
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Throughput Rate (SCC units/year)
Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day)
Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit)
Sulfur Content (mass percent)
Ash Content (mass percent)
Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW)
SIC Code
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
VOC Control Efficiency (%)
NOX Control Efficiency (%)
CO Control Efficiency (%)
SO2 Control Efficiency (%)
PM10 Control Efficiency (%)
PM25 Control Efficiency (%)
NH3 Control Efficiency (%)
VOC Primary Control Equipment Code
NOX Primary Control Equipment Code
CO Primary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code
VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code
NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code
CO Secondary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code
III-13
-------
Table 111-7 (continued)
Variable
Type
Length Decimals Description
PM10_CSEC
PM25_CSEC
NH3_CSEC
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOX_OSD
COJDSD
S02_OSD
PM10_OSD
PM25_OSD
NH3_OSD
VOC_RE
NOX_RE
CO_RE
S02_RE
PM10_RE
PM25_RE
NH3 RE
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
3
3
3
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
Summer Season Daily VOC (tons)
Summer Season Daily NOX (tons)
Summer Season Daily CO (tons)
Summer Season Daily SO2 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM10 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM25 (tons)
Summer Season Daily NH3 (tons)
VOC Rule Effectiveness (%)
NOX Rule Effectiveness (%)
CO Rule Effectiveness (%)
SO2 Rule Effectiveness
PM,n Rule Effectiveness (%
''10
PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%;
NH, Rule Effectiveness (%)
III-14
-------
Table 111-8
Structure for 2020 and 2030 Future Year Non-EGU Mass Emissions Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
PLANTID
POINTID
STACKID
SEGMENT
PLANT
sec
STKHGT
STKDIAM
STKTEMP
STKFLOW
STKVEL
BOILCAP
WINTHRU
SPRTHRU
SUMTHRU
FALTHRU
HOURS
DAYS
WEEKS
THRUPUT
MAXRATE
HEATCON
SULFCON
ASHCON
NETDC
SIC
LATC
LONG
VOC_CE
NOX_CE
CO_CE
SO2_CE
PM10_CE
PM25_CE
NH3_CE
VOC_CPRI
NOX_CPRI
CO_CPRI
S02_CPRI
PM10_CPRI
PM25_CPRI
NH3_CPRI
Type
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
15
15
12
2
40
10
4
6
4
10
9
8
3
3
3
3
2
1
2
11
12
8
5
5
9
4
9
9
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
2
2
2
3
0
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
FIPS State Code
FIPS County Code
State Plant ID
Point ID
Stack ID
Segment ID
Plant Name
sec
Stack Height (ft)
Stack Diameter (ft)
Stack Temperature (degrees F)
Stack Flow Rate (cubic feet per second)
Stack Velocity (ft/see)
Boiler Design Capacity
Winter Thruput (%)
Spring Thruput (%)
Summer Thruput (%)
Fall Thruput (%)
Hours per Day
Days per Week
Weeks per Year
Throughput Rate (SCC units/year)
Maximum Ozone Season Rate (units/day)
Heat Content (MMBtu/SCC unit)
Sulfur Content (mass percent)
Ash Content (mass percent)
Maximum Nameplate Capacity (MW)
SIC Code
Latitude (degrees)
Longitude (degrees)
VOC Control Efficiency (%)
NOX Control Efficiency (%)
CO Control Efficiency (%)
SO2 Control Efficiency (%)
PM10 Control Efficiency (%)
PM25 Control Efficiency (%)
NH3 Control Efficiency (%)
VOC Primary Control Equipment Code
NOX Primary Control Equipment Code
CO Primary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Primary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Primary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Primary Control Equipment Code
III-15
-------
Table 111-8 (continued)
Variable
VOC_CSEC
NOX_CSEC
CO_CSEC
SO2_CSEC
PM10_CSEC
PM25_CSEC
NH3_CSEC
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
S02_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOX_OSD
COJDSD
S02_OSD
PM10_OSD
PM25_OSD
NH3_OSD
NOX_5MON
NOX_7MON
VOC_RE
NOX_RE
CO_RE
S02_RE
PM10_RE
PM25_RE
NH3 RE
Type
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Decimals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Description
VOC Secondary Control Equipment Code
NOX Secondary Control Equipment Code
CO Secondary Control Equipment Code
SO2 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM10 Secondary Control Equipment Code
PM25 Secondary Control Equipment Code
NH3 Secondary Control Equipment Code
Annual VOC (tons)
Annual NOX (tons)
Annual CO (tons)
Annual SO2 (tons)
Annual PM10 (tons)
Annual PM25 (tons)
Annual NH3 (tons)
Summer Season Daily VOC (tons)
Summer Season Daily NOX (tons)
Summer Season Daily CO (tons)
Summer Season Daily SO2 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM10 (tons)
Summer Season Daily PM25 (tons)
Summer Season Daily NH3 (tons)
5-month Summer NOX, May-September (tons)
7-month NOX, October-April (tons)
VOC Rule Effectiveness (%)
NOX Rule Effectiveness (%)
CO Rule Effectiveness (%)
SO2 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM10 Rule Effectiveness (%)
PM25 Rule Effectiveness (%)
NH3 Rule Effectiveness (%)
III-16
-------
CHAPTER IV
STATIONARY AREA SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR EMISSIONS
The 1996 base year inventory for stationary area sources is the 1996 NET area source
inventory Version 3.11 (EPA, 2000a). Version 3.11 was at the time of this work the most
current version that reflects corrections to wildfire emission estimates for Kansas and removal of
area source electric utility emissions to avoid double counting with point source EGU emissions.
Additionally, residential, on-site incineration emissions were removed from all States in the
inventory and commercial wood combustion emissions were removed from Maryland and
Maine.
B. 2020 AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR EMISSIONS
Projection year emissions are a function of projected changes (growth or decline) in activity
as well as changes in control levels. The following sections describe the growth and control
assumptions utilized for this analysis.
1. Growth Assumptions
The BEA GSP growth, including population and combinations of industries (e.g., durable
goods manufacturing, total manufacturing) were used to project emissions from 1996 to 2020
and 2030 for the area source sector. The surrogates used for each category were based on the
same cross-reference list used in the Ozone/PM National Ambient Air Quality Standard
(NAAQS) analysis (Pechan-Avanti, 1997b). Updated non-BEA growth factors were applied to
estimate future year activity for prescribed burning (projections of acres of public land burned
from EPA and Federal land managers), agricultural sources (acres planted projections), and
unpaved road emissions based on work completed for EPA's Section 812 Prospective Analysis
(Pechan-Avanti, 1998). Livestock emissions growth was also updated for this analysis, utilizing
extrapolations of Census of Agriculture data.
Pechan matched area source categories with surrogate activity indicators (e.g., GSP by
industry, population, or broader BEA categories) in order to utilize the BEA data. The variable
chosen as a proxy for emissions growth is shown by source category in Table IV-1. For broad
industrial categories such as Industrial Fuel Combustion and Miscellaneous Industrial Processes,
BEA GSP growth for the manufacturing sector represents the activity level for projecting
emissions. Population was used as a surrogate growth indicator for area source categories such
as Dry Cleaning, Household Solvent Use, and Residential Fuel Combustion. Projected
emissions for each State/area source SCC combination were calculated by multiplying base year
emissions by the growth factor for the BEA growth indicator.
IV-1
-------
Table IV-1
BEA Growth Categories Assigned by Major Source Category: Area Sources
Source Category
BEA Growth Category*
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion:
Industrial
Commercial/Institutional
Residential
Industrial Processes:
Process Emissions: Synthetic Fiber
Process Emissions: Pharmaceuticals
SOCMI Fugitives
Food & Kindred Products - Bakeries
Petroleum Refining
Oil & Gas Production
Miscellaneous Industrial Processes
Surface Coating:
Architectural
Auto Refinishing
Traffic Markings
Flat Wood Coating
Wood and Metal Furniture
Paper Coating
Metal Can & Coating
Electrical Insulation
Appliances
Machinery
Motor Vehicles (New)
Aircraft Coating
Marine Paints
Rail Equipment Coating
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Industrial Maintenance
Aerosols, Specific Purpose
Degreasing (Vapor and Cold Cleaning):
Furniture
Metallurgical Process
Fabricated Metals
Industrial Machinery
Electrical Equipment
Transportation Equipment
Instrument Manufacturing
Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Automobile Dealers & Repair
Other Degreasing Sources
Total Manufacturing
Government and Government Enterprises
Population
Textile Mill Products (SIC 22)
Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28)
Chemicals and Allied Products (SIC 28)
Food and Kindred Products (SIC 20)
Petroleum and Coal Products (SIC 29)
Oil and Gas Extraction (SIC 13)
Total Manufacturing
Construction (SIC 15, 16, and 17)
Auto Repair, Services, and Garages (SIC 75)
Construction (SIC 15, 16, and 17)
Lumber and Wood Products (SIC 24)
Furniture and Fixtures (SIC 25)
Printing and Publishing (SIC 27)
Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34)
Machinery, except Electrical (SIC 35)
Fabricated Metal Products (SIC 34)
Electric and Electronic Equipment (SIC 36)
Motor Vehicles and Equipment (SIC 371)
Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37)
Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37)
Transportation Equipment, excl. Motor Vehicles (SIC 37)
Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39)
Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39)
Misc. Manufacturing Industries (SIC 39)
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Durable
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
Goods
IV-2
-------
Table IV-1 (continued)
Source Category
BEA Growth Category*
Solvent Use:
Dry Cleaning (all types)
Graphic Arts
Rubber and Plastics
Industrial Adhesives
Cutback Asphalt
Pesticides - Farm
Personal, Household and Automotive Products
Commercial Adhesives
Petroleum & Petroleum Product Storage & Transport:
Bulk Stations/Terminals
Gasoline Service Stations (Stage I and II)
Gasoline Service Stations (Underground Tank)
Waste Disposal, Treatment, & Recovery:
On-Site Incineration - Industrial
On-Site Incineration - Commercial/Institutional
On-Site Incineration - Residential
Open Burning - Industrial
Open Burning - Commercial/Institutional
Open Burning - Residential
Wastewater Treatment - Public Owned
TSDFs
Miscellaneous Area Sources:
Agriculture Production (field burning, tilling)
Agricultural Livestock
Prescribed burning
Wildfires
Unpaved Roads
Paved Roads
Population
Printing and Publishing (SIC 27)
Rubber and Misc. Plastics Products (SIC 30)
Total Manufacturing
Local/lnterurban Passenger Transit (SIC 41)
Population
Population
Population
Trucking and Warehousing (SIC 42)
Gasoline Consumption**
Gasoline Consumption**
Total Manufacturing
Government and Government Enterprises
Population
Total Manufacturing
Government and Government Enterprises
Population
Electric, Gas, and Sanitary Services (SIC 49)
Total Manufacturing
USDA-Agricultural Baseline Projections
Extrapolated from historical Census of Agriculture data
Reflects expected increases in Federal prescribed burning
activity on public lands
Zero Growth
Extrapolated from 1984 to 1996 trend in unpaved road
mileage
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from MOBILE4.1 Fuel
Consumption Model (FCM)
NOTES: *BEA growth category refers to GSP projections for each industry, unless "Population" is indicated.
**Gasoline consumption projections are from the MOBILE FCM.
IV-3
-------
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USD A) has developed baseline projections of farm
acres planted (USDA, 1998). These data, combined with historical data back to 1990, for eight
major crop types shows an expected average annual growth of only 0.38 percent per year from
1990 to 2007. The BEA GSP projections for farms result in an annual average growth of
2.0 percent per year. Projections of acres planted represent better predictors of future activity
than GSP for agricultural tilling, so the 0.38 percent per year value was used in this analysis to
calculate emission estimates for 2020 and 2030.
During an interagency (Department of the Interior/USD A) satellite conference held in April
1998, public forest land managers discussed an annual prescribed burning target of 5 million
acres for 2010. However, as specific areas for burning were not identified, emission estimates for
2020 and 2030 were assumed to remain the same as the base year 1996 in this analysis.
Unpaved road emission projections reflect the historical downward trend in miles of
unpaved roads. The States were divided into three geographic groups: East, Central, and West.
East was defined as EPA Regions 1 through 4, Central as EPA Regions 5 through 8, and West as
EPA Regions 9 and 10. Linear regression was used to estimate the continued decline in unpaved
road miles to 2030. For the emission projections, 2030 unpaved road emissions were estimated
by applying the average annual change between 1984 and 1996 out to the projection year.
For fuel combustion sources, energy adjustment factors were also applied to the baseline
inventory. These factors, developed from the DOE publication Annual Energy Outlook 1999,
account for increases in fuel and process efficiency in future years (DOE, 1998). Basically, less
fuel will be needed to provide the same amount of energy (generally in the form of steam) to an
industrial process and the amount of energy needed per unit output will also decrease as
processes become more efficient. For example, DOE projects natural gas consumption in the
commercial sector to rise from 3.392 quadrillion Btu in 1996 to 3.997 quadrillion Btu in 2020.
Over this same time-frame, DOE projects commercial square footage to increase from 59.5
billion square feet to 72.9 billion square feet. To reflect the projected change in natural gas
consumed per square foot of commercial building space, natural gas energy intensity factors
were calculated for 1996 and each projection year. For example, 0.2475 quadrillion Btu/square
foot of natural gas is projected to be consumed in 2020 versus 0.2551 quadrillion Btu/square foot
in 1996. For all commercial sector natural gas source categories, the BEA commercial sector
growth factors are multiplied by 0.97, which represents the ratio of the 2020 energy intensity
factor for commercial sector natural gas to the 1996 energy intensity factor for commercial
natural gas. Similar ratios were calculated and applied for other fuels used in the commercial
sector, and for all fuels used in the residential and industrial energy sectors. These adjustments
are based on those used in the NET projections (EPA, 2000a).
For the animal husbandry SCCs displayed in Table IV-2, alternative methods were used to
project emissions growth. For the majority of these SCCs (all except SCCs 2805001000,
2805020000, and 2805025000), emissions growth was based on projections of the number of
animals in each category that were developed based on national data from the 1987, 1992, and
1997 Census of Agriculture (USDA, 1997). For these SCCs, growth factors are based on the
increase in the number of animals between the base year and 2020 and 2030 as estimated from
linear extrapolations of the Census data. Because linear extrapolation of the Census' number of
sheep and lambs yielded negative growth factors that were believed to be unrealistic, the number
IV-4
-------
of these animals was projected using an exponential trend function that provided more realistic
growth factors. The growth factor for total livestock production (SCC 2805000000) was
computed as the median of the growth factors for the individual SCCs that comprise this total
category.
For the following three animal husbandry source categories, growth factors were based on
more comprehensive historical and projections data available from the USDA:
Beef Cattle Feedlots (SCC 2805001000);
Total Cattle/Calves (SCC 2805020000); and
Hogs and Pigs (SCC 2805025000).
For this effort, animal population data specific to each of these source categories were compiled
for 1970-1999. The USDA publishes estimates of the total number of cattle/calves; total number
of hogs and pigs; and total cattle in feedlots for historical years (USDA, 2000a). The USDA also
projects the inventory of total cattle, total beef cows, and total hogs for each year over the
1998-2009 period (USDA, 2000b). It is important to note that the categories included in the
USDA projections series do not match the emission source categories as closely as the categories
in the USDA historical data series. For example, USDA projections are available for total beef
cows, not cattle in feedlots.
Because the USDA projections data represent somewhat different animal categories than the
emission source categories and available historical data, the future animal counts were
normalized on the same basis as the historic animal counts by computing the ratio of a source
category's animal count in each future year to the animal count for 1999 as reported in the
USDA's projections series. To estimate the future number of animals in each source category,
these ratios are applied to the actual animal count for 1999, which is the latest year for which
USDA historical data are available.
After projecting these animal counts through 2009, the historical and forecast series for each
source category were graphed to determine the functional form that best represented the data.
Because the major fluctuations in the historical data for each category contradicted the clear
trend in the USDA projection series for each category, the post-2009 trend in each category was
identified based on the normalized projected animal counts for 2000-2009. The 2020 and 2030
animal counts were estimated by extrapolating to each year based on the following functional
forms identified from the 2000-2009 data:
Beef Cattle Feedlots-linear (stable slow decline in number);
Total Cattle/Calves-linear (stable slow increase in number); and
• Hogs and Pigs-logarithmic (declining rate of increase in number).
To compute the growth factors for each source category, the estimated animal counts in 2020
and 2030 were divided by the actual animal counts in 1996. Because all growth rates for
agricultural livestock operations were applied nationally, the projection method assumes no
shifts in regional patterns after 1996.
Table IV-2
Animal Husbandry Categories and Growth Assumptions
IV-5
-------
Source Classification
Code (SCC)
2710020030
2805000000
2805001000
2805020000
2805025000
2805030000
2805040000
2805045001
SCC Description
Natural Sources Biogenic Horses and Ponies
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Livestock Total
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. - Livestock Beef
Cattle Feedlots Total
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Animal Husbandry
Cattle and Calves Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Animal Husbandry
Hogs and Pigs Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Animal Husbandry
Poultry -Chickens Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Animal Husbandry
Sheep and Lambs Composite
Misc. Area Sources Agric. Prod. -Animal Husbandry
Goats Composite
Growth Function
Linear extrapolation
Median of growth factors from
individual SCCs below
Linear extrapolation
Linear extrapolation
Logarithmic extrapolation
Linear extrapolation
Exponential extrapolation
Linear extrapolation
Reference: USDA, 1997.
2. Control Assumptions
VOC area source controls were applied for federal initiatives, such as VOC content limits
for consumer solvents, Title III MACT assumptions, and Title IRACT assumptions that were
not applied in the 1996 base year inventory. These controls are listed in Table IV-3.
Additional controls were applied for residential wood combustion and Stage II VOC for
gasoline service stations. Table IV-4 shows the control efficiencies applied for residential wood
combustion by pollutant (VOC, PM10, PM25, and CO) for each of the future year inventories.
Residential wood combustion control efficiencies were derived from emission factors obtained
from AP-42, a 4 percent per year growth rate for catalytic wood stoves starting in 1988, and an
estimate of the control efficiencies applied in the 1996 base year inventory.
Table IV-5 shows the control efficiencies applied to account for VOC reductions associated
with onboard vapor recovery systems and Stage II controls at gasoline service stations. Vehicle
refueling VOC emissions were estimated using different methods for counties required to have
Stage II VOC controls versus counties not required to have Stage II VOC controls. Serious and
above ozone nonatttainment areas are required to implement Stage II (at the nozzle) vapor
recovery systems under Title I of the CAA. Table IV-6 shows the 227 counties required to have
Stage II controls. Onboard vapor recovery systems on gasoline-fueled vehicles are required in
1998 and later vehicles in all areas, independent of attainment status. However, slightly higher
control efficiencies are estimated for counties where Stage II refueling controls are required.
Control efficiencies were calculated using weighted gram per gallon emission factors determined
using a series of MOBILESa runs. These runs also accounted for the expected effect of onboard
vapor recovery systems on future year evaporative emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles.
IV-6
-------
The Stage II control efficiencies used depended on both county and projection year. A cross-
reference that contained the counties assumed to have Stage II controls at the pump in 1996 was
developed and it was assumed that counties with base year Stage II controls did receive
additional reductions in the future because of on-board vapor recovery systems being phased in
over time.
IV-7
-------
Table IV-3
Area Source VOC Control Measure Assumptions
Control Measure and Affected SCCs
VOC
Percentage
Reduction
VOC Rule
Effectiveness
Federal Control Measures (National)
Consumer Solvents 25
2465000000, 2465100000, 2465200000, 2465600000,
2456800000
Architectural and Industrial Maintenance Coatings 25
2401001000,2401001999,2401100000,2401008000
Residential Wood Combustion See Table
2104008000,2104008001, 2104008010, 2104008030, IV-4
2104008050,2104008051
Onboard Vapor Recovery Systems; and Stage II for Gasoline See Table
Service Stations IV-5
2501060100,2501060101,2501060102
100
100
Title III MACT (National)
Wood Furniture Surface Coating 30
2401020000
Aerospace Surface Coating 60
2401075000
Marine Vessel Surface Coating (Shipbuilding) 24
2401080000
Halogenated Solvent Cleaners (Cold Cleaning) 43 **
2415300000,2415305000,2415310000,2415320000,
2415325000,2415330000,2415335000,2415340000,
2415345000,2415355000, 2415360000, 2415365000
Autobody Refinishing 37
2401005000
Petroleum Refinery Fugitives 60 ***
2306000000
Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturing Industry (SOCMI) 37 ****
Fugitives (Hazardous Organic NESHAP)
2301040000
Motor Vehicle Surface Coating 36
2401070000
Metal Product Surface Coating 36
2401040000,2401045000,2401050000
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
IV-8
-------
Table IV-3 (continued)
voc
Percentage VOC Rule
Control Measure and Affected SCCs Reduction Effectiveness
Wood Product Surface Coating 36 100
2401015000
Open Top & Conveyorized Degreasing 31 100
2415100000,2415105000,2415110000,2415120000,
2415125000,2415130000,2415135000,2415140000,
2415145000,2415199000, 2415200000
Publicly Owned Treatment Works (POTWs) 80 100
2630000000 to 2630020000
Metal Furniture & Appliances Surface Coating 36 100
2401025000,2401060000
Machinery, Railroad Surface Coating 36 100
2401055000,2401085000,2401090000
Electronic Coating 36 100
2401065000
Title I RACT
Petroleum Dry Cleaning 44 80
2420000370,2420010370
Paper Surface Coating 78 80
2401030000
NOTES:
* The efficiency of onboard vapor recovery systems varies depending on whether stage II vapor recovery systems are in place. It
is determined based on MOBILESb emission factors.
** Overall control efficiency of 63% with 35% already applied in base year.
*** Overall control efficiency of 78% with 43% already applied in base year.
**** Overall control efficiency of 60% with 37% already applied in base year.
IV-9
-------
Table IV-4
Residential Wood Combustion Control Efficiency
Assumptions by Pollutant and Future Year Inventory
Pollutant 2020 Percent Reduction 2030 Percent Reduction
VOC 72 72
PM10 and 51 51
PM25a
CO 55 55
a All residential wood combustion PM emissions are assumed to be less than or
equal to PM2 5.
Table IV-5
Vehicle Refueling VOC Control Efficiency
Assumptions Included in the Future Year Inventories
Does County
Have Stage II
Controls in
1996? 2020 Percent Reduction 2030 Percent Reduction
No 82.4 85.8
Yes 87.6 88.3
IV-10
-------
Table IV-6
Counties with Stage II Controls
State
Arizona
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Delaware
Delaware
Delaware
Dist. Columbia
Florida
Florida
Florida
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
County
Maricopa
Alameda
Contra Costa
El Dorado
Fresno
Kern
Kings
Los Angeles
Madera
Marin
Merced
Monterey
Napa
Orange
Placer
Riverside
Sacramento
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Joaquin
San Mateo
Santa Barbara
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz
Solano
Sonoma
Stanislaus
Sutler
Tulare
Ventura
Yolo
Fairfield
Hartford
Litchfield
Middlesex
New Haven
New London
Tolland
Windham
Kent
New Castle
Sussex
Washington
B reward
Dade
Palm Beach
Cherokee
Clayton
Cobb
Coweta
De Kalb
Douglas
Fayette
Forsyth
Fulton
Gwinnett
Henry
Paulding
Rockdale
State FIPS
Code
04
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
10
10
10
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
County
FIPS Code
013
001
013
017
019
029
031
037
039
041
047
053
055
059
061
065
067
069
071
073
077
081
083
085
087
095
097
099
101
107
111
113
001
003
005
007
009
011
013
015
001
003
005
001
011
025
099
057
063
067
077
089
097
113
117
121
135
151
223
247
IV-11
-------
Table IV-6 (continued)
State
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Nevada
Nevada
County
Cook
Du Page
Grundy
Kane
Kendall
Lake
McHenry
Will
Clark
Floyd
Lake
Porter
Jefferson
Ascension Parish
East Baton Rouge Parish
Iberville Parish
Livingston Parish
Pointe Coupee Parish
West Baton Rouge Parish
Anne Arundel
Baltimore
Calvert
Carroll
Cecil
Charles
Frederick
Harford
Howard
Montgomery
Prince Georges
Baltim
Barnstable
Berkshire
Bristol
Dukes
Essex
Franklin
Hampden
Hampshire
Middlesex
Nantucket
Norfolk
Plymouth
Suffolk
Worcester
Kent
Livingston
Macomb
Monroe
Oakland
Ottawa
St. Clair
Washtenaw
Wayne
Franklin
Jefferson
St. Charles
St. Louis
St. Lo
Clark
Washoe
State FIPS
Code
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
21
22
22
22
22
22
22
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
29
29
29
29
29
32
32
County
FIPS Code
031
043
063
089
093
097
111
197
019
043
089
127
111
005
033
047
063
077
121
003
005
009
013
015
017
021
025
027
031
033
510
001
003
005
007
009
011
013
015
017
019
021
023
025
027
081
093
099
115
125
139
147
161
163
071
099
183
189
510
003
031
IV-12
-------
Table IV-6 (continued)
State
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Tennessee
County
Hillsborough
Merrimack
Rockingham
Strafford
Atlantic
Bergen
Burlington
Camden
Cape May
Cumberland
Essex
Gloucester
Hudson
Hunterdon
Mercer
Middlesex
Monmouth
Morris
Ocean
Passaic
Salem
Somerset
Sussex
Union
Warren
Bronx
Kings
Nassau
New York
Orange
Queens
Richmond
Rockland
Suffolk
Westchester
Ashtabula
Clark
Cuyahoga
Geauga
Greene
Lake
Lorain
Lucas
Medina
Miami
Montgomery
Portage
Summit
Wood
Bucks
Chester
Delaware
Montgomery
Philadelphia
Bristol
Kent
Newport
Providence
Washington
Davidson
Rutherford
State FIPS
Code
33
33
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
42
42
42
44
44
44
44
44
47
47
County
FIPS Code
011
013
015
017
001
003
005
007
009
011
013
015
017
019
021
023
025
027
029
031
033
035
037
039
041
005
047
059
061
071
081
085
087
103
119
007
023
035
055
057
085
093
095
103
109
113
133
153
173
017
029
045
091
101
001
003
005
007
009
037
149
IV-13
-------
Table IV-6 (continued)
State
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
County
Sumner
Williamson
Wilson
Brazoria
Chambers
Collin
Dallas
Denton
El Paso
Fort Bend
Galveston
Hardin
Harris
Jefferson
Liberty
Montgomery
Orange
Tarrant
Waller
Arlington
Charles City
Chesterfield
Fairfax
Hanover
Henrico
Loudoun
Prince William
Stafford
Alexandria
Colonial Heights
Fairfax
Falls Church
Hopewell
Manassas
Manassas Park
Richmond
Kenosha
Kewaunee
Manitowoc
Milwaukee
Ozaukee
Racine
Sheboygan
Washington
Waukesha
State FIPS
Code
47
47
47
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
55
County
FIPS Code
165
187
189
039
071
085
113
121
141
157
167
199
201
245
291
339
361
439
473
013
036
041
059
085
087
107
153
179
510
570
600
610
670
683
685
760
059
061
071
079
089
101
117
131
133
IV-14
-------
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY FILES
The structure for the area source mass emission inventory files is shown in Table IV-7. A
change to emissions is the application of the crustal PM factor. This factor accounts for the fact
that only a portion of the crustal PM emissions are transportable. For the emission files, a factor
of 25 percent was applied to PM10 and PM25 emissions for the SCCs listed in Table IV-8 to
simulate the transportable component of these emissions. In addition, PM10 and PM25 emissions
from wind erosion of natural geogenic sources (SCCs 2730100000 [total] and 2730100001 [dust
devils]) were excluded from the modeling files.
IV-15
-------
Table IV-7
Area Mass Emissions Inventory File Structure
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
sec
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOXJDSD
CO_OSD
S02_OSD
PM10_OSD
PM25_OSD
NH3JDSD
VOC_EMF
NOX_EMF
CO_EMF
S02_EMF
PM10_EMF
PM25_EMF
NH3_EMF
VOC_CE
NOX_CE
CO_CE
S02_CE
PM10_CE
PM25_CE
NH3_CE
VOC_RE
NOX_RE
CO RE
Type
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
3
3
3
Decimals
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
6
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
Description
FIPS State code
FIPS county code
sec
Annual VOC [tons per year (tpy)]
Annual NOX (tpy)
Annual CO (tpy)
Annual SO2 (tpy)
Annual PM10 (tpy)
Annual PM25 (tpy)
Annual NH3 (tpy)
OSD VOC (tpd)
OSD NOX (tpd)
OSD CO (tpd)
OSD S02 (tpd)
OSD PM10 (tpd)
OSD PM25 (tpd)
OSD NH3 (tpd)
VOC Emission Factor
NOX Emission Factor
CO Emission Factor
SO2 Emission Factor
PM10 Emission Factor
PM25 Emission Factor
NH3 Emission Factor
VOC Control Efficiency
NOX Control Efficiency
CO Control Efficiency
SO2 Control Efficiency
PM10 Control Efficiency
PM25 Control Efficiency
NH3 Control Efficiency
VOC Rule Effectiveness
NOX Rule Effectiveness
CO Rule Effectiveness
IV-16
-------
Table IV-7 (continued)
Variable
Type
Length Decimals Description
SO2_RE
PM10_RE
PM25_RE
NH3_RE
VOC_RP
NOX_RP
CO_RP
SO2_RP
PM10_RP
PM25_RP
NH3 RP
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
3
3
3
3
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
0 SO2 Rule Effectiveness
0 PM10 Rule Effectiveness
0 PM2 5 Rule Effectiveness
0 NH3 Rule Effectiveness
2 VOC Rule Penetration
2 NOX Rule Penetration
2 CO Rule Penetration
2 SO2 Rule Penetration
2 PM10 Rule Penetration
2 PM25 Rule Penetration
2 NH, Rule Penetration
IV-17
-------
Table IV-8
Sources to which Crustal Factor was Applied to PM10 and PM25 Emissions
Sector/SCC Source Category Description
Mobile Sources/Aircraft
227508xxxx Unpaved Airstrips
Mobile Sources/Paved Roads
2294xxxxxx Paved Roads
Mobile Sources/Unpaved Roads
2296xxxxxx Unpaved Roads
Industrial Processes/Construction (SIC codes 15-17)
23110001xx All Processes: Wind Erosion
23110101xx General Building Construction: Wind Erosion
23110201xx Heavy Construction: Wind Erosion
23110301xx Road Construction: Wind Erosion
23110401xx Special Trade Construction: Wind Erosion
Miscellaneous Area Sources/Agriculture Production - Crops
28010xxxxx Agriculture - Crops
28017xxxxx Fertilizer Application
Miscellaneous Area Sources/Agriculture Production - Livestock
2805xxxxxx Agriculture Production - Livestock
IV-18
-------
CHAPTER V
NONROAD SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
County-level emission estimates for 1996 for the majority of nonroad sources were
developed using EPA's March 2002 draft NONROAD model. Emission estimates for VOC,
NOX, CO, SO2, PM10, and PM2 5 are reported by the model. The NONROAD model does not
estimate NH3 emissions; therefore, these emissions were calculated outside the model. Aircraft,
commercial marine, and locomotives are not presently included in the NONROAD model, and
the procedures to develop emission estimates for these categories are discussed separately.
1. NONROAD Model Equipment Categories
The NONROAD model estimates pollutant emissions for the following general equipment
categories: (1) agricultural; (2) airport service; (3) light commercial; (4) construction and
mining; (5) industrial; (6) lawn and garden; (7) logging; (8) pleasure craft; (9) railway
maintenance; and (10) recreational equipment. These applications are further classified
according to fuel and engine type [diesel, gasoline 2-stroke, gasoline 4-stroke, compressed
natural gas (CNG), and liquified petroleum gas (LPG)].
The base year nonroad mass emissions inventory for the Nonroad Compression-Ignition (C-
I) rulemaking was developed from two emission inventories including: (1) a 1996 county-level
inventory, based on EPA's October 2001 draft NONROAD model; and (2) an updated national
inventory, based on EPA's latest draft of the NONROAD model, dated March 2002. Using the
county-level emission estimates referenced in (1), seasonal and daily county-to-national ratios
were then developed for application to updated national estimates per season referenced in (2).
To develop an updated county-level inventory for 1996, NONROAD model input files were
prepared for each State to account for the average statewide temperatures and Reid vapor
pressure (RVP) for four seasons, including summer, fall, winter, and spring. Input files were
also generated to account for county-level differences in RVP, fuel characteristics due to
reformulated gasoline (RFG) and oxygenated fuel programs, and Stage II controls. The
statewide seasonal default RVP values used as input to the NONROAD model runs are presented
in Table V-l. For areas subject to Phase I of the Federal RFG program, separate RVP values
were modeled in the 1996 NONROAD inputs for May through September (values not shown).
The areas and counties modeled with RFG are shown in Table VI-4 of Chapter VI "On-Highway
Vehicle Sources." Oxygenated fuel was modeled in the areas participating in this program in
1996, as presented in Table VI-6. For all States except California, a diesel fuel sulfur level of
3300 parts per million (ppm) was used in the modeling runs. For California, a diesel fuel sulfur
content of 120 ppm was used.
V-l
-------
Emissions calculated for counties with fuel characteristic and control data that varied from
statewide average values replaced emissions for these same counties generated by running the
default input files.
Pechan calculated seasonal, county-to-national emissions ratios for each 10-digit SCC and
pollutant based on county emissions divided by the sum total of county-level emissions for the
nation. This was done for each of the four seasons and a typical summer weekday. This ensured
that the fractions calculated for county-to-national emissions all added up to 1 at the national
level. Fractions representing county-to-national fuel consumption were also developed in the
same manner as the emission ratios, for use as activity to estimate NH3 emissions. Fuel
consumption was available for gasoline and diesel-fueled engines, as well as LPG and CNG
engines.
The 1996 county-level emissions inventory was then updated to reflect revisions made to the
NONROAD model since the October 2001 version. Using the March 2002 NONROAD model,
national, seasonal emissions were generated at the SCC level for the following pollutants: VOC,
NOX, SO2, CO, PM10, and PM2 5. Emission estimates were developed for 4 seasons, as well as for
a typical summer weekday. To account for lower diesel fuel sulfur levels in California, separate
runs were performed for this State for diesel-fueled equipment SCCs. Tables V-2a and V-2b
present a summary of the input values used for the national NONROAD model runs. These
national RVP input values were taken from the Procedures Document for National Emission
Inventory, Criteria Air Pollutants 1985-1999 (EPA, 1999c). The diesel fuel sulfur input values
were provided to Pechan in personal communication with the Office of Air Quality and
Transportation (OTAQ) staff.
National, SCC-level emissions for each of the four seasons (i.e., summer, winter, fall, and
spring) were then multiplied by the season-specific county-to-national emissions ratios. The
following formula represents how an updated 1996 (or alternate year) county-level annual
emissions inventory was developed for a given SCC and pollutant.
EAnn, Cty, y = ^ [(Es, Cty,1996 + Es, N,1996) * Es, N, y]
Where: E = Emissions, tons
Ann = Annual
S = Season (winter, spring, summer, fall)
Cty = County
N = National
y = year of inventory (e.g., 1996, 2020, or 2030)
V-2
-------
Table V-1.
Seasonal RVP Values Modeled for 1996 NONROAD Model Runs
Seasonal RVP (psi)1
FIPS2 State
State Code
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
(Los Angeles
Region)
CA
(San Francisco
Region)
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
Ml
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
01
02
04
05
06
06
08
09
10
11
12
13
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Winter
12.4
14.1
8.2
13.7
11.9
11.7
12.5
13.0
13.5
12.0
11.8
12.4
10.0
12.8
14.1
14.5
14.9
12.7
13.4
12.4
13.2
13.2
12.9
14.1
14.9
13.7
12.6
13.8
13.9
9.6
12.9
13.7
11.7
Spring Summer Autumn
9.3
13.7
7.1
9.5
9.3
10.8
10.1
9.8
10.0
8.1
7.4
9.3
10.0
10.4
10.2
10.9
11.2
8.9
9.5
9.4
10.3
9.7
9.7
9.9
11.4
9.5
10.0
10.4
10.6
8.0
9.7
10.5
9.2
7.5
13
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.8
7.9
7.9
7.0
7.4
7.4
9.8
8.6
7.8
8.8
9.0
7.6
8.4
7.6
9.0
7.5
7.8
7.4
9.0
7.1
7.2
8.7
8.6
7.6
7.8
8.8
7.8
8.8
13.7
6.9
10.1
7.6
7.6
9.4
9.8
9
8.1
7.4
8.7
10
9.1
9
9.8
11.2
8.2
9.5
8.9
10.3
8.6
9.7
9.9
10.4
8.8
9.4
10.4
9.2
7.8
9.7
10.5
9.0
V-3
-------
Table V-1 (Continued)
Seasonal RVP (psi)1
State
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
Rl
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
Wl
WY
FIPS2 State
Code
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
53
54
55
56
Winter
14.3
12.4
14.9
14.6
13.9
12.3
14.4
12.9
12.4
14.4
12.7
12.2
12.5
14.9
11.8
14.0
14.6
14.6
13.0
Spring Summer Autumn
10.9
10.3
11.9
11.0
9.1
9.8
10.9
9.7
10.3
11.2
10.4
9.7
10.6
11.4
8.2
10.6
11.0
11.1
10.4
8.8
7.4
9.0
8.7
7.2
7.7
8.8
7.8
7.4
9.0
7.3
7.8
7.8
9.0
7.2
8.5
8.8
9.0
8.8
10.9
9.7
11.2
9.8
8.2
8.7
10.9
9.7
9.7
9.9
9.8
8.7
9.4
11.4
8.2
9.5
9.9
10.1
9.3
Notes: For areas receiving reformulated gasoline May through September, RVP
values were modeled in place of the values shown here.
1 pounds per square inch
2 Federal Information Processing Standards
Pechan also generated state-level, seasonal emissions at the SCC level for California.
County-to-state ratios were developed and applied in a manner similar to the county-to-national
ratios to produce an updated diesel equipment inventory for California. These California results
replace the diesel equipment emissions generated from prior application of county-to-national
ratios.
In addition to the seasonal runs, typical summer weekday (SSD) NONROAD model runs
were performed at the national level and for California. Updated county-level typical summer
weekday emissions were developed by applying county-to-national daily emissions ratios (or
county-to-state emission ratios for California) to the national daily results.
The emissions inputs developed for the air quality modeling and reported in this document
are required early in the analytical process and therefore was based on a preliminary set of base
and control scenario parameters. Since the preliminary scenario was developed, more
V-4
-------
information has been gathered regarding the technical feasibility of the standards. As a result
minor changes have been made to the final baseline and control case fuel sulfur levels (EPA,
2003).
Table V-2a
Temperature and RVP Inputs for National NONROAD Model Runs1
Season
Summer
Fall/Spring
Winter
Typical Summer Weekday
Input2
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
RVP (psi)
Min Temp (°F)
Max Temp (°F)
Average Temp (°F)
Value
8.1
62
82
72
9.7
43
63
53
13.1
24
44
34
8.1
62
82
72
1 The input values presented were the same for both base and control cases and for all years. The
control case input values were the same for all three projection years (no control case was developed for
1996).
2 Values for minimum, maximum, and average temperature are expressed in degrees Fahrenheit (°F).
Table V-2b
Diesel Fuel Sulfur Input Values for National NONROAD Model Runs1
Year
1996
Fuel Sulfur, ppm
Base case2
2700
Control case3
Not applicable
1 Diesel fuel sulfur does not change seasonally.
2 For 1996 California base case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 120 ppm was used for all seasons.
3 For 1996 California control case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 120 ppm was used for all seasons.
V-5
-------
2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and
Locomotives
Base year aircraft, locomotive and distillate commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions
were taken from the existing 1996 HDDV inventory (Pechan, 2000). Adjustments were made to
PM10 and SO2 emissions for locomotive source categories and SO2 emissions for CMV source
categories using 49-State and California SO2 and PM10 emissions supplied by OTAQ (Wilcox,
2002). 49-State and California locomotive SO2 emissions are based on new estimates of activity
corresponding to 1996 locomotive fuel usage. The activity data were calculated by subtracting
the 1996 railroad distillate consumption obtained from the Energy Information Administration
(EIA) "Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 2000" report to the total rail maintenance source category
fuel consumption obtained from the NONROAD model (EIA, 2000). The locomotive fuel usage
was multiplied by the appropriate sulfur level and necessary conversion factors. Base and
control case sulfur levels in parts per million for both 49-State and California are listed in Table
V-3. CMV SO2 emissions are based on activity data corresponding to 1996 commercial marine
fuel usage. The activity data were calculated by subtracting the 1996 vessel bunkering distillate
consumption obtained from the EIA "Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 2000" report to the total
recreational marine diesel source category fuel consumption obtained from the NONROAD
model. The CMV fuel usage was multiplied by the appropriate sulfur level.
The 1996 PM10 emissions for both locomotive and CMV were estimated using the same
activity data as SO2 emissions. The PM10 emission factor applied to fuel usage is listed in Table
V-3. 49-State and California SSD SO2 and PM10 emissions were estimated by dividing the
annual emissions, supplied by OTAQ, by 365 days.
Table V-3
Sulfur Concentrations and PM10 Emission Factors for Locomotive and CMV
Emission Calculations
Year
1996
Area
49-State
California
Sulfur Concentration
(ppm)
2700
120
PM10 Emission Factor1
(g/gai)
6.8
1 PM10 Emission Factor is for locomotives only.
Locomotive and distillate CMV emissions from the 1996 HDDV inventory were first
summed up to the 49-State and California level. A ratio adjustment factor was calculated by
dividing the sums from the 1996 HDDV inventory by the appropriate SO2 and PM10 emissions
supplied by OTAQ. The adjustment factor was then applied back to the SO2 and PM10 annual
and SSD emissions in the county-level inventory to generate updated PM10 and SO2 emissions.
PM25 emissions were estimated by multiplying the updated PM10 emissions by a factor of 0.92.
V-6
-------
3. Methodologies for NH3
Ammonia emissions were estimated based on updated national, SCC-level fuel consumption
estimates, as reported by the March 2002 NONROAD model. As with the criteria pollutant
emission estimates, SCC-specific ratios were developed by dividing county-level fuel
consumption values by national fuel consumption values estimated with the October 2001 draft
NONROAD model. NH3 emissions for California were also recalculated using updated diesel
fuel consumption values generated for California-specific runs. Once a county-level data base of
fuel consumption was developed, emission factors provided by OTAQ were then applied to these
activity data to estimate NH3 emissions. The emission factors were derived primarily from light-
duty on-road vehicle emission measurements, and extrapolated to nonroad engines on a fuel
consumption basis. NH3 emissions for diesel engines were calculated by multiplying diesel fuel
consumption by an emission factor of 165.86 milligrams/gallon. NH3 emissions from gasoline
engines (without catalysts) were calculated by multiplying gasoline consumption by an emission
factor of 153.47 milligrams/gallon. Base year locomotive and distillate CMV NH3 emissions
were taken from the existing 1996 HDDV inventory (Pechan, 2000).
For aircraft categories, jet fuel and aviation gasoline consumption for general aviation and
commercial aircraft were obtained from the "FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years, 1998-2009,"
(FAA, 1998a). For the aircraft categories, NH3 emission factors developed for diesel engines
were applied to all fuel consumption estimates, since aviation gasoline consumption was
determined to be relatively small compared to jet fuel, and the aircraft SCCs are not broken
down by fuel type.
B. 2020 AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
The methods for developing base case and control scenario projection year inventories for
nonroad sources are described in this section. Table V-4 provides a summary of the projection
methods, as well as growth indicators, used for each nonroad equipment category.
1. Nonroad Model Equipment Categories
For NONROAD model categories, emission estimates for projection years were developed
using a method comparable to that for the base year. First, four seasonal NONROAD model
runs were performed at the national level for both 2020 and 2030. Seasonal runs accounted for
differences in average seasonal temperature, as well as RVP. Second, updated county-level
estimates were then calculated for 2020 and 2030 by multiplying national, seasonal SCC-level
emissions by the 1996 season-specific county-to-national emissions ratios. Seasonal county-
level emissions are then summed up to estimate annual emissions. In this manner, the county-
level distribution assumed for the 1996 inventory is normalized to the updated national, SCC-
level totals for each projection year.
As with the base year, separate NONROAD model runs were done for California diesel-
fueled SCCs. County-to-state ratios were developed and applied in a manner similar to the
county-to-national ratios to produce an updated diesel equipment inventory for California.
Additional runs were also performed to estimate typical summer weekday emissions for each
projection year.
V-7
-------
In addition to a base case scenario, control case emission inventories were developed for
each projection year to account for the effects of the proposed NONROAD C-I emission
standards that are the subject of this rulemaking as well as proposed reductions in diesel sulfur
content. Table V-5 presents the diesel fuel sulfur values assumed for the modeling base case and
control case scenarios. Separate runs were performed for California to account for the lower
diesel fuel sulfur content in this State (i.e., 120 ppm for the base case, and 11 ppm for the control
scenario).
Table V-4
Growth Indicators/Projection Methods for Nonroad Sources
Nonroad SCC
2260xxxxxx
2265xxxxxx
2267xxxxxx
2268xxxxxx
2270xxxxxx
2282xxxxxx
2285xxx015
SCC Description
2-stroke gasoline
4-stroke gasoline
CNG
LPG
Diesel
Recreational marine
Railway maintenance
Growth Indicator
Not applicable1
2275050000, 2275060000
2275020000, 2275070000
General Aviation and Air Taxis
Commercial Aircraft and Auxiliary
Power Units
Landing-Takeoff Operations
(LTOs) for total aircraft operations
2275001xxx
Military Aircraft
992 - Federal, Military
2275085xxx
Unpaved Airstrips
SIC 45 - Air Transportation
2275900XXX
Aircraft Refueling
SIC 45 - Air Transportation
2280002XXX
Commercial Marine - Diesel Vessels SIC 44 - Water Transportation2
2280001xxx, 2280003xxx, Commercial Marine - Coal, Residual
2280004xxx Oil, and Gas-fired Vessels
SIC 44 - Water Transportation
2283xxxxxx
Military Marine Vessels
992 - Federal, Military
2285xxxxxx
Locomotives
No growth3
1 Projection year emission estimates were derived from national NONROAD model runs allocated to counties based on the
geographic distribution of a 1996 county-level inventory, developed from the October2001 draft version of NONROAD.
2 NH3 emissions were projected using growth factors; projection year estimates for all other pollutants provided by OTAQ and
allocated to counties using ratios from the 1996 inventory.
3 NH3 emissions for projection years assumed to remain constant at 1996 uncontrolled levels; controlled projection year estimates
for all other pollutants provided by OTAQ.
As discussed earlier in this document, the emissions inputs for the air quality modeling are
required early in the analytical process in order to be able to conduct the air quality modeling
and present the results in this proposal. The air quality modeling was based on a preliminary
control scenario. Since the preliminary control scenario was developed, more information was
gathered regarding the technical feasibility of the standards. As a result, both the base and
control case scenarios were modified. Detailed information on these modifications can be found
in the associated Regulatory Impact Analysis Technical Support Document (EPA, 2003).
V-8
-------
Table V-5
Diesel Fuel Sulfur Input Values for National NONROAD Model Runs1
Year
2020
2030
Fuel Sulfur, ppm
Base case2
2700
2700
Control case3
11
11
1 Diesel fuel sulfur does not change seasonally.
2 For 1996 California base case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 120 ppm was used for all seasons.
For 2020 and 2030 California base case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 11 ppm was used for all
seasons.
3 For 1996 California control case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 120 ppm was used for all seasons.
For 2020 and 2030 California control case runs, a diesel fuel sulfur content of 11 ppm was used for all
seasons.
a. Growth Assumptions
Nonroad category emissions have typically been projected using economic indicators that
are believed to correlate to nonroad equipment activity. For example, nonroad agricultural
equipment emissions have been grown in the past using BEA GSP projections for SIC code 01,
which corresponds to the farm industry. However, instead of using economic indicators to
project emissions or nonroad activity, the current version of the NONROAD model predicts
future year nonroad equipment populations by extrapolating from a linear regression of historical
equipment populations. Because total activity is never directly measured, the historical trend in
population must be used as a surrogate. A time-series analysis using historic equipment
populations is believed to better reflect market trends within each sector (e.g., a shift from
gasoline-fueled equipment to diesel-fueled equipment). Accurately estimating the relative
distribution of different engine types in the future is important since diesel and gasoline engines
have distinct emission characteristics. This approach, however, is not planned to be used for all
equipment types in the final version of the NONROAD model. Some exceptions include oil
field equipment and aircraft ground support equipment, which will rely on BEA GSP data and
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) LTO data, respectively.
b. Control Assumptions
The NONROAD model accounts for the effect of Federal nonroad engine emission
standards which were final at the time of model formulation, or proposed standards expected to
be final soon after. The emission levels associated with compression-ignition (CI) and spark-
ignition (SI) engine standards are incorporated into emission factors, which are then applied to
future year nonroad equipment populations. The control programs already in place accounted
for in the base case inventories by the NONROAD model include: (1) Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3
CI standards for diesel engines ranging from 50 horsepower (hp) to 750 hp; (2) Tier 1 and Tier 2
CI standards for diesel engines below 50 hp and greater than 750 hp; (3) Phase I and Phase 2 of
the SI standards for gasoline engines less than 25 hp; and (4) recreational SI marine engine
controls. The control case inventories also account for the effects of proposed CI standards
covering all hp categories. The proposed CI standards as designated as Tier 4 standards.
V-9
-------
Pre-controlled and controlled steady-state emission factors for various horsepower ranges of
CI engines prior to control and subject to the current and proposed standards are presented in
Table V-6. Pre-controlled and controlled steady-state emission factors for SI engines below 25
hp (19 kilowatts) are presented in Table V-7. Additional details for these categories, as well as
SI engines greater than 25 hp and SI recreational marine engines, are presented in technical
reports that serve as supporting documentation for NONROAD model inputs (EPA, 2002a and
EPA, 2002b). Compression-ignition engine emission factor values listed in Table V-6 reflect
revisions made to the NONROAD model since the June 2000 draft version.
The impact of RFG in the appropriate counties is reflected in the 1996 base year county-
level inventory, in that the fuel RVP and percent oxygen were adjusted, as described in section
V.A.I, for counties subject to RFG and oxygenated fuels requirements. No further adjustments
were made to the NONROAD inputs to account for the use of RFG in future years.
V-10
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Table V-6
Steady-State Emission Factors for Cl Engines in the NONROAD Model
Engine
Power (hp)
>0 to 1 1
>1 1 to 25
>25 to 50
>50to 100
>100to 175
>1 75 to 300
Model
Year
88-99
00-04
05-09
10-11
12-
88-99
00-04
05-09
10-11
12-
88-98
99-03
04-09
10-11
12-
88-97
98-03
04-07
08-09
10-11
12-
88-96
97-02
03-06
07-09
10-11
12-
88-95
96-02
03-05
06-08
09-10
11-
Regulation
-
TieM
Tier 2
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
-
TieM
Tier 2
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
-
TieM
Tier 2
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
-
TieM
Tier 2
TierS
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
Emission Factors (g/hp-hr)
HC
1.5
0.7628
0.5508
0.1314
0.1314
1.7
0.4380
0.4380
0.1314
0.1314
1.8
0.2789
0.2789
0.1314
0.1314
0.99
0.5213
0.3672
0.1836
0.1314
0.1314
0.68
0.3384
0.3384
0.1836
0.1314
0.1314
0.68
0.3085
0.3085
0.1836
0.1314
0.1314
CO
5.0
4.1127
4.1127
0.411
0.411
5.0
2.1610
2.1610
0.216
0.216
5.0
1.5323
1.5323
0.153
0.153
3.49
2.3655
2.3655
2.3655
0.237
0.237
2.7
0.8667
0.8667
0.8667
0.087
0.087
2.7
0.7475
0.7475
0.7475
0.075
0.075
NOX
10.0
5.2298
4.3
4.3
0.276
8.5
4.4399
4.4399
4.4399
0.276
6.9
4.7279
4.7279
4.7279
0.276
6.9
5.5988
4.7
3.0
3.0
0.276
8.38
5.6523
4.1
2.5
2.5
0.276
8.38
5.5772
4.0
2.5
2.5
0.276
PM1
1.0
0.4474
0.50
0.0092
0.0092
0.9
0.2665
0.2665
0.0092
0.0092
0.8
0.3389
0.3389
0.0092
0.0092
0.722
0.4730
0.24
0.30
0.0092
0.0092
0.402
0.2799
0.18
0.22
0.0092
0.0092
0.402
0.2521
0.1316
0.15
0.0092
0.0092
V-ll
-------
Table V-6 (continued)
Engine
Power (hp)
>300 to 600
>600 to 750
>750
Model
Year
88-95
96-00
01-05
06-08
09-10
11-
88-95
96-01
02-05
06-08
09-10
11-
88-99
00-05
06-08
09-10
11-
Regulation
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
-
Tierl
Tier 2
TierS
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
-
Tierl
Tier 2
Transitional
Tier42
Final Tier42
Emission Factors (g/hp-hr)
HC
0.68
0.2025
0.1669
0.1669
0.1314
0.1314
0.68
0.1473
0.1669
0.1669
0.1314
0.1314
0.68
0.2861
0.1669
0.1314
0.1314
CO
2.7
1.3060
0.8425
0.8425
0.084
0.084
2.7
1 .3272
1 .3272
1 .3272
0.133
0.133
2.7
0.7642
0.7642
0.076
0.076
NOX
8.38
6.0153
4.3351
2.5
2.5
0.276
8.38
5.8215
4.1
2.5
2.5
0.276
8.38
6.1525
4.1
4.1
0.276
PM1
0.402
0.2008
0.1316
0.15
0.0092
0.0092
0.402
0.2201
0.1316
0.15
0.0092
0.0092
0.402
0.1934
0.1316
0.0092
0.0092
1 PM10 is assumed to be equivalent to PM.
2 The Tier 4 emission factors are considered to be transient.
V-12
-------
Table V-7
Emission Factors for SI Engines Below 25 hp
Engine Tech
Type
Emission Factors (g/hp-hr)
HC
CO
NOX
PM1
Class III Handheld New Engine Emissions (<20cc)2
Gas 2-stroke handheld Class III, baseline
Phase 1
Phase 1 with catalyst
Phase 2
Phase 2 with catalysts
261.00
219.99
219.99
33.07
26.87
718.87
480.31
480.31
283.37
141.69
0.97
0.78
0.78
0.91
1.49
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
Class IV Handheld New Engine Emissions (z20cc and <50cc)
Gas 2-stroke handheld Class IV, baseline
Phase 1
Phase 1 with catalyst
Phase 1 4-stroke
Phase 2
Phase 2 with catalysts
Phase 2 4-stroke
261.00
179.72
179.72
22.37
33.07
26.87
25.83
718.87
407.38
407.38
533.42
283.37
141.69
432.51
0.94
0.51
0.51
1.79
0.91
1.49
1.13
7.7
7.7
7.7
0.06
7.7
7.7
0.06
Class V Handheld New Engine Emissions (>50cc)
Gas 2-stroke handheld Class V, baseline
Phase 1
Phase 1 with catalyst
Phase 2
Phase 2 with catalysts
159.58
120.06
120.06
47.98
40.15
519.02
351.02
351.02
283.37
141.69
0.97
1.82
1.82
0.91
1.49
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
Class I Nonhandheld New Engine Emissions (<225cc)
Gas 2-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline
Gas, side-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline
Gas, overhead-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class I, baseline
2-stroke, Phase 1
Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke
Phase 1 overhead valved 4-stroke
Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke with catalyst
Phase 2 side-valved
Phase 2 overhead valved
207.92
38.99
13.39
120.06
8.40
8.40
8.40
7.93
6.13
485.81
430.84
408.84
449.66
353.69
351.16
353.69
353.69
351.16
0.29
2.00
1.80
4.00
3.60
3.24
3.60
2.37
1.83
7.7
0.06
0.06
7.7
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Class II Nonhandheld New Engine Emissions (*225cc)
Gas 2-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline
Gas, side-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline
Gas, overhead-valved, 4-stroke nonhandheld Class II, baseline
Phase 1 side-valved, 4-stroke
Phase 1 overhead valved 4-stroke
Phase 2 side-valved
Phase 2 overhead valved
207.92
9.66
5.20
5.50
5.20
5.50
4.16
485.81
430.84
408.84
387.02
352.57
387.02
352.57
0.29
2.06
3.50
4.50
3.50
4.50
2.77
7.7
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
1 PM10 is assumed to be equivalent to PM.
2 Assigned NONROAD hp ranges:
Class IIK20cc: 0-1 hp; Class IV>20cc and <50cc: 1-3 hp; Class V>50cc: 3-6 hp; Class I <225cc: 3-6hp;
Class II >225cc: 6-25hp
V-13
-------
2. Emission Estimates for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels, and
Locomotives
Military aircraft were projected from 1996 using BEA GSP growth factors. Aircraft
estimates for the years 2020 and 2030 were based on 1996 NET emission estimates and
developed with commercial and general aviation growth rates from the FAA. Forecasts were
only available up to the year 2020 in "Long Range Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2010, 2015,
and 2020," (FAA, 1998b). The annual average growth rate for the period 2015 to 2020 was
assumed for estimating growth out to the year 2030. Military aviation activity was assumed to
remain constant starting in 2010 so BEA GSP-based projections to 2010 were used for 2020 and
2030 for this category. The EPA has promulgated NOX and CO emission standards for
commercial aircraft, but the impacts from these standards are not accounted for in this analysis.
Locomotive and distillate CMV emissions were taken from the existing 2020 and 2030
control case HDDV inventory (Pechan, 2000). Adjustments were made to PM10 and SO2
emissions for locomotive source categories and SO2 emissions for CMV source categories using
49-State and California SO2 and PM10 emissions supplied by OTAQ. 49-State and California
locomotive SO2 emissions are based on activity data corresponding to 2020 or 2030 locomotive
fuel usage. The activity data were calculated by subtracting the 2000 railroad distillate
consumption obtained from the EIA "Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 2000" report to the total rail
maintenance source category fuel consumption obtained from the NONROAD model. The
activity data were then multiplied by a growth factor representing rail energy use. The
locomotive fuel usage was multiplied by the appropriate sulfur level, listed in Table V-8. CMV
SO2 emissions are based on activity data corresponding to 2020 and 2030 commercial marine
fuel usage. The activity data were calculated by subtracting the 2000 vessel bunkering distillate
consumption obtained from the EIA "Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales 2000" report to the total
recreational marine diesel source category fuel consumption obtained from the NONROAD
model. The activity data were then multiplied by a growth factor. The CMV fuel usage was
multiplied by the appropriate sulfur level, listed in Table V-8.
The 2020 and 2030 PM10 emissions for locomotives were estimated using the same activity
data as SO2 emissions. PM10 emission factors for 2020 and 2030 are listed in Table V-8. 49-
State and California SSD SO2 and PM10 emissions were estimated by dividing the annual
emissions, supplied by OTAQ, by 365 days.
Locomotive and distillate CMV emissions from the 2020 and 2030 control case FtDDV
inventories were first summed up to the 49-State and California level. A ratio adjustment factor
was calculated by dividing the sums from the 2020 and 2030 FtDDV inventories by the
appropriate SO2 and PM10 emissions supplied by OTAQ. The adjustment factor was then applied
back to the SO2 and PM10 annual and SSD emissions in the county-level inventories to generate
updated PM10 and SO2 emissions. PM2 5 emissions were estimated by multiplying the updated
PM10 emissions by a factor of 0.92.
Distillate CMV PM10 emissions were adjusted for only the control cases. The PM10
emissions were first summed up to the 49-State and California level in both the 2020 and 2030
control case FtDDV emission inventories. Total PM10 emissions from the FtDDV inventories
were reduced by the appropriate CMV sulfate PM "benefit" emissions supplied by OTAQ. The
V-14
-------
sulfate PM "benefit" emissions were generated by subtracting the control from the base case
CMV sulfate PM emissions. The PM sulfate emissions are based on 2020 and 2030 commercial
marine fuel usage multiplied by the appropriate sulfur level, listed in Table V-8. A ratio
adjustment factor was calculated by dividing the PM10 sums from the 2020 and 2030 control case
HDDV inventories by the CMV sulfate PM "benefit" emissions supplied by OTAQ. The
adjustment factor was then applied to the PM10 county-level emissions in the inventories to
estimate updated PM10 emissions. PM2 5 emissions were estimated by multiplying the updated
PM10 emissions by a factor of 0.92.
Table V-8
Sulfur Concentrations and PM10 Emission Factors for Locomotive and CMV
Emission Calculations
Year
2020 base
2020 control
2030 base
2030 control
Area
49-State
California
49-State
California
49-State
California
49-State
California
Sulfur Concentration
(ppm)
2700
120
11
11
2700
120
11
11
PM10 Emission Factor1
(g/gai)
4.9
4.2
1 PM10 Emission Factor is for locomotives only.
3. Methodologies for NH3
Updated values for national diesel and gasoline fuel consumption, as well as California
diesel fuel consumption, were obtained from the June 2000 draft version of the NONROAD
model for 2020 and 2030. Fuel consumption was distributed to counties using the 1996 county-
level distribution. County-level fuel consumption estimates were then multiplied by the
appropriate emission factor to estimate NH3 emissions for the projection years. For aircraft,
1996 base year NH3 emissions were projected to future years using the growth indicators listed
in Table V-5. Locomotive and commercial marine vessel (CMV) NH3 emissions were taken
from the existing 2020 and 2030 control case HDDV inventories (Pechan, 2000).
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY FILES
Mass emissions for NONROAD model sources were maintained in a separate data base
from emissions for diesel commercial marine and locomotive categories. Table V-9 presents the
nonroad mass emissions inventory file structure.
V-15
-------
Table V-9
Nonroad Mass Emissions Inventory File Structure
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
sec
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOXJDSD
CO_OSD
S02_OSD
PM10_OSD
PM25_OSD
NH3 OSD
Type
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Decimals
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
6
Description
FIPS State code
FIPS county code
sec
Annual VOC [tons per year (tpy)]
Annual NOX (tpy)
Annual CO (tpy)
Annual SO2 (tpy)
Annual PM10 (tpy)
Annual PM25 (tpy)
Annual NH3 (tpy)
OSD VOC (tpd)
OSD NOX (tpd)
OSD CO (tpd)
OSD S02 (tpd)
OSD PM10 (tpd)
OSD PM25 (tpd)
OSD NH, (tpd)
V-16
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CHAPTER VI
ON-HIGHWAY VEHICLE SOURCES
A. 1996 BASE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY
This section summarizes the inputs and control programs that were modeled and adjustments
that were made to the 1996 on-highway vehicle emissions inventory. The starting point for the
1996 on-highway vehicle emission inventory was the 1996 National Emission Trends highway
vehicle emission factor database created in 1998 that was also used in support of EPA's Tier 2
rulemaking. The procedures document for the National Emissions Inventory provides more
detail on the inputs contained in that analysis, but some of the key elements of that inventory are
summarized here (EPA, 1998b). The 1996 vehicle miles traveled (VMT) used in this analysis
also uses the corresponding Trends VMT file as the starting point, with the updates discussed
below.
The 1996 VMT data is based on historical 1996 Highway Performance Monitoring System
(HPMS) data obtained from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA, 1997). The HPMS
database contains state-level summaries of average annual daily VMT by roadway type and by
rural, small urban, and individual urban areas. The small urban and individual urban area VMT
combined to make up the total urban VMT. Based on population data from the Bureau of
Census (BOC, 1992), the HPMS data were distributed to counties at the roadway type level. A
conversion was then made at the national roadway type level to convert the national VMT from
the HPMS vehicle categories to the MOBILESb vehicle type categories. EPA's OTAQ provided
a new mapping of the HPMS VMT by vehicle category to the MOBILES vehicle categories.
This was an update from the VMT mapping used in the 1996 Trends VMT data base. Table VI-
1 shows this new HPMS to MOBILES VMT allocation by vehicle type. Using the data in the
table, national 1996 HPMS VMT, by rural and urban categories, were converted to total fraction
of VMT by MOBILES vehicle type for rural roads and urban roads. These fractions were then
multiplied by the 1996 VMT distributed by county and roadway type to create the new 1996
VMT file by county, roadway type, and vehicle type. Table VI-2 summarizes the resulting VMT
data by vehicle type and shows the fraction of VMT in each of the MOBILES vehicle categories.
Speeds modeled in this analysis, both in 1996 and the projection years, were constant by
vehicle class and functional road class throughout the nation. In other words, the same speeds
were modeled in all analysis years, and the speeds depended upon the vehicle type and road type.
The origin of these speed data is an analysis performed on output from the HPMS impact
analysis for 1990 (FHWA, 1990). Speeds from this analysis year were consistent with speeds
from earlier analysis years. Table VI-3 shows the speeds modeled.
VI-1
-------
Table VI-1
HPMS to MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category Assignments
HPMS VMT Vehicle Category
Motorcycle
Passenger Car
Buses
Other 2-axle, 4-tire vehicles
Single-unit 2-axle 6-tire or more trucks
Combination trucks
MOBILES VMT Vehicle Category
MC
LDGV
LDDV
HDGV
HDDV
LDGT1
LDGT2
LDDT
HDGV
HDDV
HDGV
HDDV
HDGV
HDDV
1996 VMT Fraction
1.0000
0.9945
0.0055
0.3077
0.6923
0.6621
0.2284
0.0054
0.0759
0.0282
0.2925
0.7075
0.0000
1.0000
Table VI-2
National 1996 VMT by Vehicle Type for Nonroad Analysis
Vehicle Type 1996 VMT (million miles) 1996 VMT Fractions
LDGV 1,455,403 0.5880
LDGT1 538,255 0.2175
LDGT2 185,684 0.0750
HDGV 82,355 0.0333
LDDV 8,054 0.0033
LDDT 4,388 0.0018
HDDV 190,994 0.0772
JVIC 9,872 0.0040
Total 2.475.004 1.0000
VI-2
-------
Table VI-3
Average Speeds by Road Type and Vehicle Type
(Miles per Hour)
Rural Roadway Types
LDV
LOT
HDV
Interstate
60
55
40
Principal
Arterial
45
45
35
Minor
Arterial
40
40
30
Major
Collector
35
35
25
Minor
Collector
30
30
25
Local
30
30
25
Urban Roadway Types
Interstate
Other Freeways
& Expressways
Principal Minor
Arterial Arterial Collector
Local
LDV
LOT
HDV
45
45
35
45
45
35
20
20
15
20
20
15
20
20
15
20
20
15
Vehicle registration distributions by vehicle age used in the 1996 NET include distributions
provided by States through OTAG and the NOX SIP Call. Areas with no specified registration
distribution were modeled with registration distributions by vehicle type developed based on
national sales and registration data for 1996. The same registration distributions used in 1996
were also applied in both projection years. These registration distributions by age differ by the
MOBILESb vehicle categories.
Temperatures for 1996 were based on the average historical 1996 monthly maximum and
minimum daily temperatures reported in a city selected to be representative of temperatures
within a given State. Emission factors were calculated at the monthly level using these monthly
temperatures. Monthly RVP data were also used in the MOBILESb inputs. These inputs were
based on January and July RVP data from American Automobile Manufacturers Association's
(AAMA's) fuel surveys (AAMA, 1996), and then allocated by month and area. More details on
the temperature inputs and the RVP allocation procedures can be found in the Trends procedures
document (EPA, 1998b).
In addition to the inputs described above, control programs were modeled in 1996, as
discussed below.
1. Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs
Inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs were modeled in areas with such programs in
place in 1996. The actual I/M inputs and the counties included in these programs were based on
VI-3
-------
data collected in the OTAG process, as well as from state-level I/M program summary
information provided by OTAQ (Somers, 1997a). The vehicle types affected by these programs
vary by area but can include light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) and trucks (LDGTls and
LDGT2s) and heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDGVs). The counties that were modeled with I/M
programs in the base year are shown in Table VI-4.
2. RFC
Phase 1 of the Federal RFG program was modeled in the 1996 MOBILESb inputs. The
areas and counties that were modeled with RFG are shown in Table VI-5. Data on the RFG
coverage was provided by OTAQ. The summertime RFG benefits were applied from May
through September, while the winter RFG benefits were applied in the remaining months.
California was modeled with the benefits of the Federal RFG program applied Statewide.
3. Oxygenated Gasoline
Oxygenated gasoline was modeled in the areas participating in this program in 1996. A
listing of these areas was provided by OTAQ (Somers, 1997b), along with the months that the
oxygenated gasoline program was in place in these areas and the market share of ether and
alcohol blends. The average oxygen content of ether blend fuels was assumed to be 2.7 percent
in all oxygenated gasoline areas and the average oxygen content of alcohol blend fuels was
assumed to be 3.5 percent in all oxygenated gasoline areas. Table VI-6 lists the counties
modeled with oxygenated gasoline and the corresponding fuel parameters.
4. Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Programs
In the 1996 analysis year, LEV programs were modeled in California, Massachusetts, and
New York. The California program was modeled with a 1994 start year, using the MOBILES
default LEV schedule. The LEV programs in Massachusetts and New York were modeled with
start years of 1995 and 1996, respectively, with 15 percent of 1995 model year new vehicle sales
(in Massachusetts only) meeting the intermediate Transitional LEV (TLEV) emission standards,
20 percent of 1996 model year new vehicle sales meeting the TLEV emission standards, and the
remaining new vehicle sales meeting the Federal Tier I emission standards. The LEV programs
affect LDGVs and LDGTls.
Table VI-4
Counties Modeled with Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs
VI-4
-------
Table VI-4 (continued)
State
Arizona
Arizona
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
State
County
Maricopa Co
Pima Co
Alameda Co
Butte Co
Contra Costa Co
El Dorado Co
Madera Co
Merced Co
Orange Co
Placer Co
Riverside Co
San Bernardino Co
San Joaquin Co
Santa Clara Co
Solano Co
Stanislaus Co
Tulare Co
Ventura Co
Yolo Co
Marin Co
Monterey Co
San Luis Obispo Co
San Mateo Co
Santa Barbara Co
Santa Cruz Co
Sonoma Co
Fresno Co
Kern Co
Los Angeles Co
Napa Co
Sacramento Co
San Diego Co
San Francisco Co
Adams Co
Arapahoe Co
Boulder Co
Douglas Co
Jefferson Co
Denver Co
Pitkin Co
El Paso Co
Larimer Co
Weld Co
Fairfield Co
Hartford Co
Litchfield Co
County
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Delaware
Delaware
Delaware
DC
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Maryland
State
Maryland
Middlesex Co
New Haven Co
New London Co
Tolland Co
Windham Co
Kent Co
New Castle Co
Sussex Co
Washington
Broward Co
Dade Co
Duval Co
Hillsborough Co
Palm Beach Co
Pinellas Co
Cobb Co
De Kalb Co
Fulton Co
Gwinnett Co
Ada Co
Cook Co
Du Page Co
Lake Co
Grundy Co
Kane Co
Kendall Co
McHenry Co
Will Co
Madison Co
St. Clair Co
Clark Co
Floyd Co
Lake Co
Porter Co
Boone Co
Campbell Co
Kenton Co
Jefferson Co
Ascension Par
Calcasieu Par
East Baton Rouge Par
Iberville Par
Livingston Par
Pointe Coupee Par
West Baton Rouge Par
Anne Arundel Co
County
Baltimore Co
VI-5
-------
Table VI-4 (continued)
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Nevada
Nevada
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
State
Carroll Co
Harford Co
Howard Co
Baltimore
Calvert Co
Cecil Co
Queen Annes Co
Charles Co
Frederick Co
Montgomery Co
Prince Georges Co
Washington Co
Barnstable Co
Berkshire Co
Bristol Co
Dukes Co
Essex Co
Franklin Co
Hampden Co
Hampshire Co
Middlesex Co
Nantucket Co
Norfolk Co
Plymouth Co
Suffolk Co
Worcester Co
Anoka Co
Carver Co
Dakota Co
Hennepin Co
Ramsey Co
Scott Co
Washington Co
Wright Co
Franklin Co
Jefferson Co
St. Charles Co
St. Louis Co
St. Louis
Clark Co
Washoe Co
Atlantic Co
Cape May Co
Warren Co
Bergen Co
Essex Co
Hudson Co
County
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Hunterdon Co
Mercer Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Somerset Co
Sussex Co
Union Co
Burlington Co
Camden Co
Cumberland Co
Gloucester Co
Salem Co
Bernalillo Co
Bronx Co
Kings Co
Nassau Co
New York Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
Rockland Co
Suffolk Co
Westchester Co
Davidson Co
Davie Co
Forsyth Co
Guilford Co
Durham Co
Granville Co
Gaston Co
Mecklenburg Co
Wake Co
Clark Co
Clermont Co
Geauga Co
Greene Co
Medina Co
Montgomery Co
Portage Co
Summit Co
Warren Co
Butler Co
Hamilton Co
Lake Co
Lorain Co
Cuyahoga Co
VI-6
-------
Table VI-4 (continued)
State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
County
Canadian Co
Cleveland Co
Kingfisher Co
Lincoln Co
Logan Co
McClain Co
Oklahoma Co
Pottawatomie Co
Creek Co
Osage Co
Rogers Co
Tulsa Co
Wagoner Co
Clackamas Co
Jackson Co
Multnomah Co
Washington Co
Allegheny Co
Beaver Co
Washington Co
Westmoreland Co
Lehigh Co
Northampton Co
Bucks Co
Chester Co
Delaware Co
Montgomery Co
Philadelphia Co
Bristol Co
Kent Co
Newport Co
Providence Co
Washington Co
Rutherford Co
Sumner Co
Williamson Co
Wilson Co
State
Tennessee
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Washington
Washington
Washington
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Utah
Utah
Utah
Utah
County
Davidson Co
Shelby Co
Collin Co
Denton Co
Dallas Co
Tarrant Co
Ellis Co
Johnson Co
Kaufman Co
Parker Co
Rockwall Co
El Paso Co
Harris Co
Arlington Co
Fairfax Co
Fairfax
Prince William Co
Alexandria
Manassas
Manassas Park
Falls Church
King Co
Snohomish Co
Spokane Co
Kenosha Co
Milwaukee Co
Ozaukee Co
Racine Co
Washington Co
Waukesha Co
Sheboygan Co
Davis Co
Salt Lake Co
Weber Co
Utah Co
VI-7
-------
Table VI-5
Counties Modeled with Federal Reformulated Gasoline (RFG)
State/
Nonattainment Area County
State/
Nonattainment Area County
Arizona (Southern RFG)
Phoenix
Maricopa Co
Connecticut (Northern RFG)
Greater Connecticut
Hartford Co
Litchfield Co
Middlesex Co
New Haven Co
New London Co
Tolland Co
Windham Co
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
Fairfield Co
District of Columbia (Southern RFG)
Washington DC
Washington
Delaware (Northern RFG)
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Kent Co
New Castle Co
Sussex County
Sussex Co
Illinois (Northern RFG)
Chicago-Gary-Lake County
Cook Co
Du Page Co
Grundy Co
Kane Co
Kendall Co
Lake Co
McHenry Co
Will Co
Indiana (Northern RFG)
Chicago-Gary-Lake County
Lake Co
Porter Co
Kentucky (Northern RFG)
Cincinnati-Hamilton
Boone Co
Campbell Co
Kenton Co
Louisville
Bullitt Co
Jefferson Co
Oldham Co
Maine (Northern RFG)
Knox & Lincoln Counties
Knox Co
Lincoln Co
Lewiston-Auburn
Androscoggin Co
Kennebec Co
Portland
Cumberland Co
Sagadahoc Co
York Co
Maryland (Southern RFG)
Baltimore
Anne Arundel Co
Baltimore
Baltimore Co
Carroll Co
Harford Co
Howard Co
Kent & Queen Annes Counties
Kent Co
Queen Annes Co
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Cecil Co
Washington DC
Calvert Co
Charles Co
Frederick Co
Montgomery Co
Prince Georges Co
Massachusetts (Northern RFG)
Boston-Lawrence-Worcester-Eastern MA
Barnstable Co
Bristol Co
Dukes Co
Essex Co
Middlesex Co
Nantucket Co
Norfolk Co
Plymouth Co
Suffolk Co
Worcester Co
Springfield/Pittsfield-Western MA
Berkshire Co
Franklin Co
Hampden Co
VI-8
-------
Table VI-5 (continued)
State/
Nonattainment Area County
State/
Nonattainment Area County
New Hampshire (Northern RFC)
Manchester
Hillsborough Co
Merrimack Co
Portsmouth-Dover-Rochester
Rockingham Co
Strafford Co
New Jersey (Northern RFC)
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton
Warren Co
Atlantic City
Atlantic Co
Cape May Co
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
Bergen Co
Essex Co
Hudson Co
Hunterdon Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Somerset Co
Sussex Co
Union Co
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Burlington Co
Camden Co
Cumberland Co
Gloucester Co
Mercer Co
Salem Co
New York (Northern RFC)
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
Bronx Co
Kings Co
Nassau Co
New York Co
Orange Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
Rockland Co
Suffolk Co
Westchester Co
Hampshire Co
New York (Northern RFC)
Poughkeepsie
Dutchess Co
Putnam Co
Pennsylvania (Northern RFC)
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton
Bucks Co
Chester Co
Delaware Co
Montgomery Co
Philadelphia Co
Rhode Island (Northern RFC)
Providence
Bristol Co
Kent Co
Newport Co
Providence Co
Washington Co
Texas (Southern RFC)
Dallas-Fort Worth
Collin Co
Dallas Co
Denton Co
Tarrant Co
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria
Brazoria Co
Chambers Co
Fort Bend Co
Galveston Co
Harris Co
Liberty Co
Montgomery Co
Waller Co
Virginia (Southern RFC)
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News
Chesapeake
Hampton
James City Co
Newport News
Norfolk
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Suffolk
Virginia Beach
Williamsburg
York Co
VI-9
-------
Table VI-5 (continued)
State/
Nonattainment Area County
State/
Nonattainment Area County
Virginia (Southern RFC)
Richmond-Petersburg
Washington DC
Charles City Co
Chesterfield Co
Colonial Heights
Hanover Co
Henrico Co
Hopewell
Richmond
Alexandria
Arlington Co
Fairfax
Fairfax Co
Falls Church
Loudoun Co
Manassas
Manassas Park
Prince William Co
Stafford Co
Wisconsin (Northern RFC)
Milwaukee-Racine
Kenosha Co
Milwaukee Co
Ozaukee Co
Racine Co
Washington Co
Waukesha Co
NOTE: Federal reformulated gasoline was modeled statewide in California. Certain RFC fuel property requirements differ
depending on whether an area receives Northern or Southern RFC.
VI-10
-------
Table VI-6
Oxygenated Gasoline Modeling Parameters
Market Shares (%)
State
Alaska
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Connecticut
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Montana
Nevada
Nevada
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
County
Anchorage Ed
Anchorage Ed
Maricopa Co
Adams Co
Arapahoe Co
Boulder Co
Douglas Co
Jefferson Co
Denver Co
El Paso Co
Larimer Co
Fairfield Co
Anoka Co
Carver Co
Dakota Co
Hennepin Co
Ramsey Co
Scott Co
Washington Co
Wright Co
Chisago Co
Isanti Co
Missoula Co
Clark Co
Washoe Co
Bergen Co
Essex Co
Hudson Co
Hunterdon Co
Mercer Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Somerset Co
Sussex Co
Union Co
Bernalillo Co
Bronx Co
Kings Co
MTBE
0
0
80
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
90
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
0
0
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
15
95
95
Oxygen
Content (%)
Alcohol Blends MTBE Alcohol Blends
100
100
20
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
10
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
100
100
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
85
5
5
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Oxygenated
Gasoline Season
NOV-FEB (2020 & 2030)
NOV-DEC (1996 only)
OCT-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
OCT-JAN
NOV-FEB
OCT-MAR
OCT-JAN
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
VI-11
-------
Table VI-6 (continued)
Market Shares (%)
State
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Texas
Utah
Washington
Washington
Washington
Washington
Wisconsin
County
Nassau Co
New York Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
Rockland Co
Suffolk Co
Westchester Co
Orange Co
Putnam Co
Clackamas Co
Jackson Co
Multnomah Co
Washington Co
Josephine Co
Klamath Co
Yamhill Co
El Paso Co
Utah Co
Clark Co
King Co
Snohomish Co
Spokane Co
St. Croix Co
Oxygen
Content (%)
MTBE Alcohol Blends MTBE Alcohol Blends
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
95
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
15
20
1
1
1
1
10
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
85
80
99
99
99
99
90
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Oxygenated
Gasoline Season
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
NOV-FEB
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
JAN-FEB (1996 only)
SEP-FEB
OCT-JAN
5. MOBILES to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
VOC, NOX, and CO on-highway vehicle emission factors were calculated using the above
inputs and EPA's MOBILESb emission factor model. Emission factors for on-highway SO2,
PM10, and PM2 5 were calculated using EPA's PARTS model and NH3 emission factors for on-
highway vehicles were calculated using national vehicle-specific emission factors (Harvey,
1983). Various adjustment factors were then applied to the MOBILESb VOC and NOX emission
factors to simulate emission factors that would result from using MOBILE6, as well as
accounting for issues not included in MOBILESb. Each of these adjustments are discussed
below. All of the adjustment factors discussed in these sections were provided by OTAQ.
a. VOC and NOX Exhaust Adjustments
Adjustment factors to convert the MOBILESb emission factors to MOBILE6 emission
factors were applied to the VOC exhaust and NOX MOBILESb output emission factors for
LDGVs, LDGTls, LDGT2s, HDGVs, LDDVs, and LDDTs. These factors varied by vehicle
type and by control combination. The control combination included one of three fuel types
VI-12
-------
(conventional gasoline, western gasoline, and reformulated gasoline) and one of three I/M
categories (no I/M, I/M, and appropriate I/M). (An appropriate I/M program is defined as one
that meets EPA's requirements to be modeled with the maximum LEV benefits.) Each county in
the nation was assigned one of these control combinations. The corresponding adjustment factor
was then applied to each monthly, vehicle type emission factor for each county in the nation.
Table VI-7 lists the exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment factors applied in 1996
and the projection years and Table VI-8 lists the NOX MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment
factors. Both tables are by vehicle type and control combination.
b. Air Conditioning Usage Factors
An additional adjustment was applied to the NOX LDGV, LDGT1, and LDGT2 emission
factors (already adjusted, as above to MOBILE6 emission rates) in 1996. This adjustment
accounted for the additional NOX emissions that would occur with air conditioning usage that is
not included in the MOBILES emission factors. The air conditioning usage factors consist of
two components: a factor simulating full air conditioning usage and a temperature dependent
factor that adjusts the full usage factor for usage at the given temperature. These two factors
were multiplied and then added to the MOBILE6-adjusted NOX emission factors. The full usage
factor is dependent upon vehicle type and the same control combinations listed with the
MOBILE6 adjustments (with the exception that areas with both I/M and appropriate I/M are
categorized together for this adjustment). Table VI-9 lists the full usage NOX air conditioning
usage factors. The air conditioning adjustment becomes 0 below temperatures of 68°F. Above
temperatures of 109°F, the full usage factor is applied directly. The temperatures used to
calculate this adjustment were the ambient temperatures calculated by MOBILESb and included
in the MOBILESb output files. The temperature dependent equation is as follows:
Temp Adj = -3.631541 + 0.072465 * AMBTEMP - 0.000276 * (AMBTEMPA2)
This temperature adjustment was then multiplied by the corresponding full usage factor and the
result was added to the MOBILE6-adjusted NOX emission factors.
c. HDDV Adjustment Factors
The final set of adjustment factors applied to the 1996 on-highway vehicle emission
inventories is the set of HDDV adjustment factors. These factors account for the emission factor
updates from data collected by OTAQ for MOBILE6 for VOC, NOX, CO, SO2, PM10, and PM2 5
as well as the NOX emission changes due to the use of the HDDV defeat devices. The factors
vary by roadway type, as shown in Table VI-10.
VI-13
-------
Table VI-7
Exhaust VOC MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
Year
1996
2020
2030
Control Combination
APR IM CG
APR IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IMWEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IMWEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.880
0.969
0.880
0.880
0.969
0.880
0.787
0.870
0.787
1.496
1.751
1.499
0.297
0.344
0.297
0.277
0.337
0.278
1.644
1.925
1.645
0.273
0.321
0.274
0.263
0.324
0.263
LDGT1
0.896
0.973
0.896
0.896
0.973
0.896
0.834
0.905
0.834
1.233
1.443
1.235
0.282
0.327
0.282
0.284
0.346
0.284
1.509
1.766
1.511
0.258
0.303
0.258
0.268
0.330
0.268
LDGT2
1.132
1.203
1.132
1.132
1.203
1.132
1.020
1.084
1.020
0.302
0.347
0.303
0.302
0.347
0.303
0.263
0.309
0.264
0.201
0.241
0.202
0.201
0.241
0.202
0.200
0.249
0.200
LDDV
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
1.231
0.319
0.288
0.319
0.319
0.288
0.319
0.386
0.440
0.386
0.285
0.253
0.285
0.285
0.253
0.285
0.355
0.422
0.355
LDDT
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
1.385
0.271
0.229
0.271
0.271
0.229
0.271
0.476
0.409
0.476
0.266
0.222
0.266
0.266
0.222
0.266
0.494
0.424
0.494
HDGV
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.574
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
0.165
VI-14
-------
Table VI-8
NOX MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
Year
1996
2020
2030
Control Combination
APR IM CG
APR IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
APP IM CG
APP IM RFC
APP IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.948
0.965
0.948
0.948
0.965
0.948
0.885
0.901
0.885
0.550
0.583
0.556
0.184
0.195
0.186
0.235
0.250
0.238
0.474
0.505
0.476
0.148
0.157
0.149
0.207
0.220
0.207
LDGT1
0.948
0.961
0.948
0.948
0.961
0.948
0.875
0.886
0.875
0.471
0.497
0.476
0.212
0.224
0.214
0.283
0.300
0.286
0.424
0.450
0.428
0.176
0.187
0.178
0.252
0.267
0.254
LDGT2
1.037
1.045
1.037
1.037
1.045
1.037
0.976
0.984
0.976
0.300
0.314
0.303
0.300
0.314
0.303
0.306
0.321
0.309
0.180
0.189
0.184
0.180
0.189
0.184
0.222
0.233
0.225
LDDV
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
1.104
0.144
0.143
0.144
0.144
0.143
0.144
0.234
0.226
0.234
0.118
0.116
0.118
0.118
0.116
0.118
0.219
0.210
0.219
LDDT
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
1.152
0.158
0.155
0.158
0.158
0.155
0.158
0.285
0.280
0.285
0.161
0.159
0.161
0.161
0.159
0.161
0.303
0.298
0.303
HDGV
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.908
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.288
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
0.208
VI-15
-------
Table VI-9
NOX Full Usage Air Conditioning Adjustment Factors
Year
1996
2020
2030
Control Combination
IMCG
IMRFG
IMWEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IMWEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IMWEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type
(grams/mile)
LDGV
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.347
0.347
0.347
0.063
0.062
0.063
0.093
0.092
0.094
0.055
0.054
0.055
0.085
0.084
0.085
LDGT1
0.194
0.194
0.194
0.207
0.207
0.207
0.047
0.046
0.047
0.073
0.072
0.073
0.041
0.040
0.041
0.068
0.067
0.068
LDGT2
0.252
0.252
0.252
0.266
0.266
0.266
0.072
0.071
0.073
0.099
0.097
0.099
0.054
0.053
0.055
0.083
0.082
0.084
VI-16
-------
Table VI-10
HDDV Adjustment Factors
Adjustment Factor (unitless)
Year
1996
2020
2030
Facility
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Interstate
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Arterial
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Description
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Interstate
Other Prin Arterial
Interstate
Other Freeways
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Other Prin Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
Interstate
Other Prin Arterial
Interstate
Other Freeways
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Other Prin Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
Interstate
Other Prin Arterial
Interstate
Other Freeways
Minor Arterial
Major Collector
Minor Collector
Local
Other Prin Arterial
Minor Arterial
Collector
Local
voc
0.6858
0.6858
0.6858
0.6858
0.5712
0.5712
0.5712
0.5712
0.5916
0.5916
0.5916
0.5916
0.3229
0.3229
0.3229
0.3229
0.2499
0.2499
0.2499
0.2499
0.2351
0.2351
0.2351
0.2351
0.3103
0.3103
0.3103
0.3103
0.2394
0.2394
0.2394
0.2394
0.2251
0.2251
0.2251
0.2251
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
0,
0,
0
0
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
0,
0,
0
0
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
0,
0,
0
0
CO
.8030
.8030
.8030
.8030
.6106
.6106
.6106
.6106
.6275
.6275
.6275
.6275
.3721
.3721
.3721
.3721
.2852
.2852
.2852
.2852
.2786
.2786
.2786
.2786
.3658
.3658
.3658
.3658
.2809
.2809
.2809
.2809
.2746
.2746
.2746
.2746
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
NO,
.2973
.2973
.2973
.2973
.2723
.2723
.2723
.2723
.0240
.0240
.0240
.0240
.7099
.7099
.7099
.7099
.3144
.3144
.3144
.3144
.3130
.3130
.3130
.3130
.7078
.7078
.7078
.7078
.3586
.3586
.3586
.3586
.3713
.3713
.3713
.3713
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
PM
.8666
.8666
.8666
.8666
.7110
.7110
.7110
.7110
.7549
.7549
.7549
.7549
.9220
.9220
.9220
.9220
.7506
.7506
.7506
.7506
.7262
.7262
.7262
.7262
.9131
.9131
.9131
.9131
.7411
.7411
.7411
.7411
.7161
.7161
.7161
.7161
SO,
0.7063
0.7063
0.7063
0.7063
0.6085
0.6085
0.6085
0.6085
0.6268
0.6268
0.6268
0.6268
0.6506
0.6506
0.6506
0.6506
0.5799
0.5799
0.5799
0.5799
0.6005
0.6005
0.6005
0.6005
0.5948
0.5948
0.5948
0.5948
0.5390
0.5390
0.5390
0.5390
0.5606
0.5606
0.5606
0.5606
VI-17
-------
B. 2020 AND 2030 FUTURE YEAR MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
This section summarizes the growth assumptions made and control programs applied to
calculate the 2020 and 2030 on-highway vehicle emission inventories. As discussed above, the
registration distributions and speeds modeled in 1996 were also used in the projection years.
The temperatures modeled in the projection years represented State-specific average monthly
maximum and minimum daily temperatures averaged from 1970 through 1997 using data from
the National Climatic Data Center. The same temperatures were modeled in 2020 and 2030.
1. Growth Assumptions
The VMT used in 2020 and 2030 were projected from 1996, using VMT projection data
from EPA's Tier 2 rulemaking (EPA, 1999d). First, VMT from the Tier 2 analysis were totaled
by county and vehicle type for 1996 and the projection years. Next, each VMT record from the
1996 data base (at the county, vehicle type, and roadway type level of detail) developed for this
analysis and discussed earlier in this chapter was multiplied by the ratio of the corresponding
Tier 2 projection year VMT to the 1996 Tier 2 VMT (both at the county and vehicle type level of
detail). In this manner, the 1996 VMT shifts by vehicle class from the Tier 2 analysis to the
analysis were projected to the future using the area and vehicle type-specific growth factors from
the Tier 2 analysis. The resulting projection year VMT and the corresponding VMT fractions by
vehicle type are shown in Table VI-11.
Table VI-11
National VMT Projections Fractions by Vehicle Type for Nonroad Analysis
Vehicle
Type
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
LDDV
LDDT
HDDV
MC
Total
Annual VMT
2020
1,283,189
1,670,987
371,876
165,884
0
5,112
384,106
19,885
3,901,040
(10x6 Miles)
2030
1,311,807
2,027,426
451,534
201,948
0
5,885
467,480
24,208
4,490,287
VMT
2020
0.329
0.428
0.095
0.043
0.000
0.001
0.098
0.005
1.000
Fractions
2030
0.292
0.452
0.101
0.045
0.000
0.001
0.104
0.005
1.000
2. Control Assumptions
This section summarizes the control programs that were modeled for highway vehicles in
2020 and 2030.
VI-18
-------
a. I/M Programs
I/M program inputs were the same in all of the projection years. The default program
parameters for counties expected to have I/M programs in place in the projection years are the
EPA performance standard I/M program inputs. The specific inputs modeled for each of the I/M
program performance standards are shown in Table VI-12.
I/M program coverage by county or area was based on data collected by EPA and Pechan
for the OTAG and Section 812 emission projections. During this data collection process, each
State was contacted to confirm which counties in that State would be implementing an I/M
program in the future. Each State was also asked to indicate which of the EPA I/M program
types the program would most closely resemble - high enhanced, low enhanced, basic, or Ozone
Transport Region (OTR) low enhanced. Responses were collected from each State with a
planned CAA I/M program. Any additional I/M-specific information collected during comment
periods for EPA's NOX SIP Call, and accepted by EPA, superseded the default and OTAG I/M
data. The counties that were modeled with I/M programs in the projection years are shown in
Table VI-13.
b. RFC
Phase II of this Federal RFG program was modeled in the projection years. Coverage of
RFG in the projection years was the same as that in 1996, with the following exceptions: all
Maine counties and Orange County, NY were removed from the 1996 list, shown in Table VI-4.
The entire State of California was modeled with Federal Phase II RFG (ASTM Class B) in the
projection years. Areas not participating in the RFG program were modeled during the ozone
season months with Phase IIRVP values of either 8.7 pounds per square inch (psi) or 7.8 psi
depending on their ASTM Class and hence the applicable federal RVP requirements. Areas that
provided SIP Call comments documenting the presence of a low RVP program were modeled at
that RVP during the ozone season.
c. Oxygenated Fuel
The oxygenated fuel program inputs and county coverages modeled are the same as those
described for 1996, with the specific changes listed in Table VI-6 for several of the areas for
2020 and 2030.
VI-19
-------
TableVI-12
I/M Performance Standard Program Inputs
I/M Program Name
I/M Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Stringency Level (Percent)
Model Years Covered
Waiver Rate For Pre-1981 Model Years (%)
Waiver Rate For 1981 and Later Models (%)
Compliance Rate (%)
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Vehicle Types Inspected
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Test Type
I/M Cutpoints
Effectiveness Rates (% hydrocarbon
(HC)/CO/NOX)
Program Start Year
Stringency Level (Percent)
Model Years Covered
Waiver Rate For Pre-1981 Model Years (%)
Waiver Rate For 1981 and Later Models (%)
Compliance Rate (%)
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Vehicle Types Inspected
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Test Type
I/M Cutpoints (g/mi HC/CO/NOX)
Effectiveness Rates (% HC/CO/NOX)
Anti-Tampering Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Model Years Covered
Vehicle Types Inspected
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Program Type
Effectiveness Rate
Inspection Frequency
Compliance Rate (%)
Basic I/M
Performance
Standard
1983
20
1968-2020
0
0
100
TO
Annual
YES
NO
NO
NO
IdleTest
220/1.2/999
1.00/1.00/1.00
Low Enhanced I/M
Performance
Standard
1983
20
1968-2020
3
3
96
TO
Annual
YES
YES
YES
NO
IdleTest
220/1.2/999
1.00/1.00/1.00
1995
1972-2020
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
1.00
Annual
96
High Enhanced
I/M Performance
Standard
1983
20
1968-1985
3
3
96
TO
Annual
YES
YES
YES
NO
2500/ldleTest
220/1 .2/999
1.00/1.00/1.00
1983
20
1986-2020
3
3
96
TO
Annual
YES
YES
YES
NO
TransientTest
0.80/20.0/2.00
1.00/1.00/1.00
1995
1984-2020
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
1.00
Annual
96
VI-20
-------
Table VI-12 (continued)
I/M Program Name
Basic I/M
Performance
Standard
Low Enhanced I/M
Performance
Standard
High Enhanced
I/M Performance
Standard
I/M Program Parameters
Inspections Performed
Air Pump System
Catalyst
Fuel Inlet Restrictor
Tailpipe Lead Deposit Test
EGR System
Evaporative Emission Control System
PCV System
Gas Cap
Functional Pressure Test Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Model Years Covered
Effectiveness Rate
Vehicle Types Tested
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Compliance Rate (%)
Purge Test Program Parameters
Program Start Year
Model Years Covered
Effectiveness Rate
Vehicle Types Tested
LDGV
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
Program Type
Inspection Frequency
Compliance Rate (%)
NO
NO
NO
NO
YES
NO
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
1995
1983-2020
1.00
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
Annual
96
1995
1986-2020
1.00
YES
YES
YES
NO
TO
Annual
96
NOTES: TO=Test Only
TRC=Test And Repair (Computerized)
VI-21
-------
TableVI-13
Counties Modeled with Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) Programs
State
Arizona
Arizona
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
County
Maricopa Co
Pima Co
Alameda Co
Butte Co
Colusa Co
Contra Costa Co
El Dorado Co
Glenn Co
Kings Co
Madera Co
Merced Co
Nevada Co
Orange Co
Placer Co
Riverside Co
San Benito Co
San Bernardino Co
San Joaquin Co
Santa Clara Co
Shasta Co
Solano Co
Stanislaus Co
Sutter Co
Tehama Co
Tulare Co
Ventura Co
Yolo Co
Yuba Co
Marin Co
Monterey Co
San Luis Obispo Co
San Mateo Co
Santa Barbara Co
Santa Cruz Co
Sonoma Co
Fresno Co
Kern Co
Los Angeles Co
Napa Co
Sacramento Co
San Diego Co
San Francisco Co
Adams Co
Arapahoe Co
Boulder Co
Douglas Co
State
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Colorado
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Delaware
Delaware
Delaware
DC
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
County
Jefferson Co
Denver Co
Pitkin Co
El Paso Co
Larimer Co
Weld Co
Fairfield Co
Hartford Co
Litchfield Co
Middlesex Co
New Haven Co
New London Co
Tolland Co
Windham Co
Kent Co
New Castle Co
Sussex Co
Washington
B reward Co
Dade Co
Duval Co
Hillsborough Co
Palm Beach Co
Pinellas Co
Cherokee Co
Clayton Co
Coweta Co
Douglas Co
Fayette Co
Forsyth Co
Henry Co
Paulding Co
Rockdale Co
Cobb Co
De Kalb Co
Fulton Co
Gwinnett Co
Ada Co
Cook Co
Du Page Co
Lake Co
Grundy Co
Kane Co
Kendall Co
McHenry Co
Will Co
VI-22
-------
Table VI-13 (continued)
State
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
County
Madison Co
St. ClairCo
Monroe Co
Clark Co
Floyd Co
Lake Co
Porter Co
Boyd Co
Greenup Co
Boone Co
Campbell Co
Kenton Co
Jefferson Co
Ascension Par
East Baton Rouge Par
Iberville Par
Livingston Par
Pointe Coupee Par
West Baton Rouge Par
Cumberland Co
Anne Arundel Co
Baltimore Co
Carroll Co
Harford Co
Howard Co
Baltimore
Calvert Co
Cecil Co
Queen Annes Co
Charles Co
Frederick Co
Montgomery Co
Prince Georges Co
Washington Co
Barnstable Co
Berkshire Co
Bristol Co
Dukes Co
Essex Co
Franklin Co
Hampden Co
Hampshire Co
Middlesex Co
Nantucket Co
Norfolk Co
Plymouth Co
Suffolk Co
Massachusetts
State
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Nevada
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
Worcester Co
County
Anoka Co
Carver Co
Dakota Co
Hennepin Co
Ramsey Co
Scott Co
Washington Co
Franklin Co
Jefferson Co
St. Charles Co
St. Louis Co
St. Louis
Clark Co
Washoe Co
Hillsborough Co
Rockingham Co
Merrimack Co
Strafford Co
Atlantic Co
Cape May Co
Warren Co
Burlington Co
Camden Co
Cumberland Co
Gloucester Co
Salem Co
Bergen Co
Essex Co
Hudson Co
Hunterdon Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Somerset Co
Sussex Co
Union Co
Mercer Co
Bernalillo Co
Albany Co
Allegany Co
Broome Co
Cattaraugus Co
Cayuga Co
Chautauqua Co
VI-23
-------
Table VI-13 (continued)
New York
New York
State
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
Chemung Co
Chenango Co
County
Clinton Co
Columbia Co
Cortland Co
Delaware Co
Erie Co
Essex Co
Franklin Co
Fulton Co
Genesee Co
Greene Co
Hamilton Co
Herkimer Co
Jefferson Co
Lewis Co
Livingston Co
Madison Co
Monroe Co
Montgomery Co
Niagara Co
Oneida Co
Onondaga Co
Ontario Co
Orleans Co
Oswego Co
Otsego Co
Rensselaer Co
St. Lawrence Co
Saratoga Co
Schenectady Co
Schoharie Co
Schuyler Co
Seneca Co
Steuben Co
Sullivan Co
Tioga Co
Tompkins Co
Ulster Co
Warren Co
Washington Co
Wayne Co
Wyoming Co
Yates Co
Bronx Co
Kings Co
Nassau Co
New York
New York
New York
State
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
New York Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
County
Rockland Co
Suffolk Co
Westchester Co
Dutchess Co
Orange Co
Putnam Co
Cabarrus Co
Union Co
Orange Co
Forsyth Co
Guilford Co
Durham Co
Gaston Co
Mecklenburg Co
Wake Co
Clark Co
Clermont Co
Geauga Co
Medina Co
Montgomery Co
Portage Co
Summit Co
Warren Co
Butler Co
Hamilton Co
Lake Co
Lorain Co
Cuyahoga Co
Clackamas Co
Jackson Co
Multnomah Co
Washington Co
Josephine Co
Berks Co
Blair Co
Cambria Co
Centre Co
Cumberland Co
Dauphin Co
Lackawanna Co
Lancaster Co
Lebanon Co
Luzerne Co
Lycoming Co
VI-24
-------
Table VI-13 (continued)
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
State
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Utah
Utah
Utah
Utah
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
York Co
Allegheny Co
Beaver Co
Washington Co
County
Westmoreland Co
Bucks Co
Chester Co
Delaware Co
Montgomery Co
Philadelphia Co
Erie Co
Mercer Co
Lehigh Co
Northampton Co
Bristol Co
Kent Co
Newport Co
Providence Co
Washington Co
Rutherford Co
Sumner Co
Williamson Co
Wilson Co
Davidson Co
Shelby Co
Dallas Co
Tarrant Co
El Paso Co
Harris Co
Davis Co
Salt Lake Co
Utah Co
Weber Co
Addison Co
Bennington Co
Caledonia Co
Vermont
Vermont
State
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
Vermont
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Washington
Washington
Washington
Washington
Washington
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Chittenden Co
Essex Co
County
Franklin Co
Grand Isle Co
Lamoille Co
Orange Co
Orleans Co
Rutland Co
Washington Co
Windham Co
Windsor Co
Arlington Co
Fairfax Co
Loudoun Co
Prince William Co
Stafford Co
Alexandria
Manassas
Manassas Park
Fairfax
Falls Church
Pierce Co
Clark Co
King Co
Snohomish Co
Spokane Co
Kenosha Co
Milwaukee Co
Ozaukee Co
Racine Co
Washington Co
Waukesha Co
Sheboygan Co
VI-25
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d. National LEV (NLEV) Program
The NLEV program was included for all States in the projection year modeling. This
program starts with the 2001 model year nationwide, and in 1999 in the Northeast Ozone
Transport Commission (OTC) States. The implementation schedule of the NLEV program in the
OTC States is shown below.
Model Year
1999
2000
2001 and later
Federal Tier I
Standards
30%
Transitional LEV
Standards
40%
40%
LEV Standards
30%
60%
100%
States in the OTC that have adopted a LEV program on their own were modeled with the
characteristics of their programs. These States include Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and
Maine. California's LEV program began in 1994. This was modeled using the MOBILESb
default LEV implementation schedule, along with a start year of 1994 for this program.
The following table shows the emission standards of the Federal Tier I program, the
transitional LEV (TLEV) standards, the LEV standards, and the Ultra-Low Emission Vehicle
(ULEV) standards. These standards apply to the LDGV and LDGTla classes of vehicles. The
LDGTlb category is also included in the NLEV program, but the emission standards for these
vehicles are slightly less stringent than those listed below for the lighter vehicles.
Nonmethane Organic
Emission Standard Gas (NMOG) CO NOX
Federal Tier 1
TLEV
LEV
ULEV
0.250 grams/mile nonmethane
hydrocarbon (NMHC)
0.125 grams/mile
0.075 grams/mile
0.040 grams/mile
3.4 grams/mile
3.4 grams/mile
3.4 grams/mile
1 .7 grams/mile
0.40 grams/mile
0.40 grams/mile
0.20 grams/mile
0.20 grams/mile
e. 2004 NOX Standard for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines
The EPA promulgated a new NOX plus NMHC standard for Heavy Duty Vehicles of
2.5 grams per brake horsepower-hour (g/bhp-hr). This standard was modeled in the MOBILESb
input files following the guidance provided in "MOBILES Information Sheet #5, Inclusion of
New 2004 NOX Standard for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines in MOBILESa and MOBILESb
Modeling" issued on January 30, 1998. (http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/mobile5/m5info5.pdf)
In effect, this modeling reduces the HDDV emission factors starting with the 2004 model year to
be consistent with the new standard, and is applied nationally.
VI-26
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f. Tier 2/Low Sulfur Gasoline Controls and 2020 and 2030 Adjustment
Factors
The 1996 section of this chapter discusses the VOC exhaust and NOX MOBILESb to
MOBILE 6 adjustment factors, the air conditioning usage adjustment factors, and the HDDV
NOX defeat device adjustment factors. The actual factors applied, including those applied in
2020 and 2030 were shown in Tables VI-7 through VI-10. The adjustment factors applied in the
projection years include the effect of the Tier 2 emission standards and low sulfur gasoline, in
addition to MOBILE6 adjustments. Although the appropriate I/M category was included in the
1996 adjustment tables, the non-I/M adjustments were the same as those for I/M. For the
projection years, these two categories have different adjustment factors in most cases. In
general, areas modeled with the EPA enhanced performance standard, or an equivalent I/M
program, were grouped in the "APP IM" category. Several exceptions to this general rule
occurred for areas that indicated through comments to the NOX SIP Call that were accepted by
EPA specifically indicating that the area should or should not be modeled with the maximum
LEV benefits.
i. VOC Evaporative Adjustments
An additional set of MOBILESb to MOBILE6 adjustment factors was applied to the VOC
evaporative emission factors in 2020 and 2030 that were not applied in 1996. These adjustments
result from the Tier 2 and low sulfur fuel controls. These factors were applied to the evaporative
portion of the VOC emission factors for LDGVs, LDGTls, and LDGT2s, and are shown in
Table VI-14.
ii. On-board Diagnostics
To simulate the effects of on-board diagnostic (OBD) devices in the projection years,
adjustments were made to the MOBILESb input files for areas modeled with an I/M program.
This was modeled by adding or modifying pressure and purge test input lines, such that 1996 and
later model year LDGVs and LDGTs would receive the full benefits of a test-only pressure test
and purge test.
iii. PM and SO2 Adjustment Factors
An additional set of factors was applied to PM and gasoline-fueled vehicle SO2 emission
factors in the projection years. The PM factors are shown in Table VI-15 and were applied only
to the exhaust portion of the PM10 and PM25 emission factors for LDGVs, LDGTs, HDGVs,
LDDVs, and LDDTs. The brake wear and tire wear portions of the PM factors were not
adjusted. Table VI-16 lists the SO2 factors applied. These factors apply to all gasoline vehicle
types and account for the lower levels of sulfur in gasoline under EPA's final Tier 2/1 ow sulfur
fuel rulemaking.
g. Heavy Duty Diesel Emission Reductions
Emission reduction percentages simulating the Heavy Duty Diesel regulation were supplied
by OTAQ as national reduction percentages. Table VI-17 lists these reduction percentages for
the vehicle types and pollutants whose emissions were reduced from the Base Case to the
VI-27
-------
Control Case. For HDDVs, the controls were applied to VOC, NOX, CO, exhaust PM10, exhaust
PM2 5, and SO2. Exhaust and evaporative VOC emissions and NOX emissions were reduced from
HDGVs. SO2 emissions were reduced from LDDVs and LDDTs (as well as HDDVs) due to the
lower diesel fuel sulfur content included in the HDD proposal.
C. MASS EMISSIONS INVENTORY FILES
The format of the final mass emissions file, which contain annual and SSD emissions for
each pollutant are shown in Table VI-18. It should be noted that the SSD values for the on-
highway vehicle emissions are calculated by dividing July emissions by 31.
VI-28
-------
TableVI-14
Evaporative VOC MOBILESb to MOBILES Adjustment Factors
Year
2020
2030
Control Combination
IMCG
IMRFG
IM WEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
IMCG
IMRFG
IMWEST
NO IM CG
NO IM RFC
NO IM WEST
Adjustment Factors by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.883
0.846
0.883
0.945
0.919
0.945
0.874
0.842
0.874
0.941
0.913
0.941
LDGT1
0.880
0.855
0.880
0.954
0.935
0.954
0.860
0.830
0.860
0.948
0.926
0.948
LDGT2
0.941
0.915
0.941
0.978
0.967
0.978
0.915
0.884
0.915
0.974
0.959
0.974
VI-29
-------
TableVI-15
PM Adjustment Factors
Year
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.416
0.624
0.416
0.416
0.625
0.416
0.417
0.625
0.417
LDGT1
0.342
0.563
0.342
0.337
0.559
0.337
0.333
0.556
0.333
LDGT2
0.370
0.591
0.370
0.349
0.571
0.349
0.333
0.556
0.333
HDGV
0.767
0.848
0.767
0.767
0.848
0.767
0.767
0.848
0.767
LDDV
0.826
0.826
0.826
0.421
0.421
0.421
0.109
0.109
0.109
LDDT
0.800
0.800
0.800
0.408
0.408
0.408
0.107
0.107
0.107
MC
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
TableVI-16
SO2 Adjustment Factors
Year
2007
2020
2030
Control Combination
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
CG
RFC
WEST
Adjustment Factor by Vehicle Type (unitless)
LDGV
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
LDGT1
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
LDGT2
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
HDGV
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
LDDV
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
LDDT
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
MC
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
0.088
0.224
0.088
VI-30
-------
TableVI-17
HDD Emission Reduction Percentages
Calendar
Year
2007
2020
2030
2007
2020
2030
2007
2020
2030
2007
2020
2030
Vehicle
Type
HDDV
HDDV
HDDV
HDGV
HDGV
HDGV
LDDV
LDDV
LDDV
LDDT
LDDT
LDDT
National Reduction
Exhaust VOC
4.82%
80.64%
89.43%
0.45%
17.17%
24.29%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Evaporative VOC
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.60%
8.78%
9.78%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
NOX
1 .08%
75.21%
89.50%
1 .02%
33.43%
53.88%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
CO
5.84%
82.40%
89.99%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Exhaust PM10
1 1 .96%
83.89%
92.43%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
Exhaust PM25
1 1 .96%
83.89%
92.43%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
S02
97.64%
97.65%
97.65%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
97.88%
-------
TableVI-18
Structure for On-Highway Mobile Source Mass Emissions Data Files
Variable
FIPSST
FIPSCNTY
sec
VOC_ANN
NOX_ANN
CO_ANN
SO2_ANN
PM10_ANN
PM25_ANN
NH3_ANN
VOC_OSD
NOX_OSD
CO_OSD
SO2_OSD
PM10JDSD
PM25_OSD
NH3_OSD
Type
C
C
C
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
Length
2
3
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Decimals
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Description
FIPS State code
FIPS county code
Source Category Classification Code
Annual VOC emissions (tons per year)
Annual NOX emissions (tpy)
Annual CO emissions (tpy)
Annual SO2 emissions (tpy)
Annual PM10 emissions (tpy)
Annual PM25 emissions (tpy)
Annual NH3 emissions (tpy)
Summer season day VOC emissions [tons per day (tpd)]
Summer season day NOX emissions (tpd)
Summer season day CO emissions (tpd)
Summer season day SO2 emissions (tpd)
Summer season day PM10 emissions (tpd)
Summer season day PM25 emissions (tpd)
Summer season day NH3 emissions (tpd)
VI-32
-------
CHAPTER VII
EMISSION FILE DESCRIPTION
Year Source Sector
1996 ECU
Non-EGU Point
Stationary Area
Highway Mobile
Nonroad Mobile
2020 ECU
Non-EGU Point
Stationary Area
Highway Mobile
Nonroad Mobile
Filename
egu96nr.dbf
pt96nr.dbf
ar96nr.dbf
mv96nr.dbf
nr96b3.dbf
egu20nr.dbf
pt20nr.dbf
ar20nr.dbf
mv20nr.dbf
nr20b3.dbf
Description
Electric generating utility (ECU) annual and summer
season daily (SSD) emissions.
Non-EGU point source annual and SSD emissions.
Stationary area source annual and SSD emissions.
Highway mobile source annual and SSD emissions.
Nonroad mobile source annual and SSD emissions.
Electric generating utility (ECU) winter and summer
season emissions.
Non-EGU point source annual and SSD emissions.
Stationary area source annual and SSD emissions.
Highway mobile source annual and SSD emissions.
Nonroad mobile source base case annual and SSD
emissions.
2030 ECU
Non-EGU Point
Stationary Area
Highway Mobile
Nonroad Mobile
nr20c3.dbf Nonroad mobile source preliminary control annual and
SSD emissions.
eguSOnr.dbf Electric generating utility (ECU) winter and summer
season emissions.
ptSOnr.dbf Non-EGU point source annual and SSD emissions.
arSOnr.dbf Stationary area source annual and SSD emissions.
mvSOnr.dbf Highway mobile source annual and SSD emissions.
nrSObS.dbf Nonroad mobile source base case annual and SSD
emissions.
nrSOcS.dbf Nonroad mobile source preliminary case annual and
SSD emissions.
1 Final control case scenario emission summaries are available in the Nonroad RIA (EPA, 2003).
VII-1
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CHAPTER VIM
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