EPA454/R-07-003
United States February 2007
Environmental Protection
Agency
Technical Support Document
for the Final Mobile Source
Air Toxics Rule: Ozone
Modeling
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EPA454/R-07-003
February 2007
Technical Support Document for the Final Mobile
Source Air Toxics Rule: Ozone Modeling
Air Quality Assessment Division
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
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Table of Contents
I. Introduction 2
II. Methodology 2
A. CAMx Base Case Modeling Simulations 2
B. Future Year CAMx Modeling 4
C. Development of the Metamodeling Experimental Design 5
D. Building the Response Surfaces within the Metamodeling 7
III. Evaluation of Ozone Metamodeling 8
IV. Summary of Ozone Metamodeling Results 10
A. Adjusting the MSAT Metamodeling Emissions 10
B. Modeling Results from the Final MSAT Strategy 12
Appendix A: 2020 MSAT Metamodeling Results
Appendix B: 2030 MSAT Metamodeling Results
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I. Introduction
This document was prepared to describe the ozone air quality modeling
performed by EPA in support of the Mobile Source Air Toxics (MS AT) rule. Included is
information on (1) the air quality modeling and the development of model inputs, (2) the
performance of the models as compared to measured data, and (3) an assessment of the
expected air quality improvements from the VOC emissions reductions that are part of
this rule.
Because of the availability of reductions from different precursor pollutants and
types of sources, applying the model for individual chosen control scenarios may miss
alternative strategies that achieve greater air quality benefits at a lower cost. As a result,
a new approach known as air quality metamodeling has been developed to aggregate
numerous individual air quality modeling simulations into a multi-dimensional air quality
"response surface". Simply, this metamodeling technique is a "model of the model" and
can be shown to reproduce the results from an individual modeling simulation with little
bias or error. This approach allows for the rapid assessment of air quality impacts of
different combinations of emissions reductions and was used here to project the effects of
the portable fuel container controls within the MSAT rule.
II. Methodology
A. CAMx Base Case Modeling Simulations
The foundation for the ozone modeling analyses considering impacts from
portable fuel containers was the CAMx modeling that was done in support of the final
Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). The CAIR modeling is fully described in the CAIR air
quality modeling technical support document (TSD)1, but a brief description is provided
below. The modeling procedures used in this analysis (e.g., domain, episodes,
meteorology) have been used for several EPA rulemaking analyses over the past 5 years
and are well-established at this point.
The modeling simulations that comprised the MSAT metamodeling were
conducted using CAMx version 3.10. CAMx is a non-proprietary computer model that
simulates the formation and fate of photochemical oxidants, including ozone, for given
input sets of meteorological conditions and emissions. The gridded meteorological data
for three historical episodes were developed using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling
System (RAMS), version 3b.2 In all, the 30 episode days in 1995 modeled for this
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Technical Support Document for the Final Clean Air Interstate
Rule: Air Quality Modeling, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC,
March 2005.
2 Pielke, R.A., W.R. Cotton, R.L. Walko, CJ. Tremback, W.A. Lyons, L.D. Grasso, M.E.
Nicholls, M.D. Moran, D.A. Wesley, TJ. Lee, and J.H. Copeland, 1992: A Comprehensive
Meteorological Modeling System - RAMS, Meteor. Atmos. Phys., Vol. 49, pp. 69-91.
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analysis were associated with frequently-occurring, ozone-conducive, meteorological
conditions in portions of the Eastern U.S.. Emissions estimates were developed for the
evaluation year (1995) as well as a future base year (2015).
The CAMx model applications were performed for a domain covering all, or
portions of, 37 States (and the District of Columbia) in the Eastern U.S., as shown in
Figure II-1. The domain has nested horizontal grids of 36 km and 12 km, however the
output data from the metamodeling is provided at a 12 km resolution (i.e., cells from the
outer 36 km cells populate the nine finer scale cells, as appropriate). Table II-l provides
the basic information regarding the simulations.
Table II-l. Configuration of ozone modeling domain.
Map Projection
Grid Resolution
East/West extent
North/South extent
Dimensions
Vertical extent
Layer structure (m)
CAMx MSAT Eastern U.S. Modeling
Coarse Grid
latitude/longitude
l/2°longitude,
1/3 "latitude (-36 km)
-99 W to -67 W
26 N to 47 N
64 x 63 x 9
Fine Grid
latitude/longitude
l/6°longitude,
l/91atitude (~ 12 km)
-92 W to -69.5 W
32 N to 44 N
137x110x9
9 Layers: surface to 4 km
0-50, 50-100, 100-300, 300-600, 600-1000, 1000-1500, 1500-2000, 2000-2500,
2500-4000
Before one can combine multiple CAMx simulations into a metamodel, one must
ensure that the base simulations show adequate model performance. EPA guidance on
ozone modeling for attainment demonstrations3 notes that the performance of an air
quality model can be evaluated in two ways: (1) how well is the model able to replicate
observed concentrations of ozone and/or precursors, and (2) how accurate is the model in
characterizing sensitivity of ozone to changes in emissions? For the first evaluation
approach, EPA conducted an operational performance evaluation of CAMx for the 1995
episodes as part of the CAIR modeling analysis. The details of that ozone performance
evaluation are provided in the CAIR TSD. In general, the model was determined to be
performing acceptably, with relatively-low levels of bias and error at most space/time
scales. As for the second evaluation approach, there is some initial evidence that past
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses in
Attainment Demonstrations for the 8-hour Ozone NAAQS, EPA-454/R-05-002, Research Triangle Park,
NC, 27711, 128pp, October 2005.
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modeling applications with similar configurations have successfully reproduced observed
changes in air quality.4
Figure II-1. Map of the CAMx domain used for MSAT ozone metamodeling.
B. CAMx Future Case Modeling Simulations
As noted above, emissions estimates were developed for a future year (2015).
The 2015 emissions estimates account for the net effects of economic growth and
emissions reductions expected to result from existing and recently promulgated control
programs, including the reductions resulting from CAIR, the Clean Air NonRoad Diesel
Rule (CAND), the NOx SIP Call, and other rules. For more information on the
development of the 2015 emissions, please see the CAIR Emissions Inventory TSD.5
This 2015 CAIR future-year emissions inventory was the starting point for the ozone
metamodeling done for the MSAT rule.
The CAIR 2015 modeling indicates that substantial improvement is expected in
ambient levels of 8-hour ozone between the present and 2015. Only six Eastern U.S.
ozone nonattainment areas are projected to remain nonattainment of the 8-hour ozone
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Evaluating Ozone Control Programs in the Eastern United
States: Focus on the NOx Budget Trading Program, 2004, Office of Air and Radiation, Washington DC,
August 2005.
5 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, CAIR Emissions Inventory Technical Support Document, Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC, March 2005.
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NAAQS in 2015: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee, New York City, and
Philadelphia.
C. Development of the Metamodeling Experimental Design
The ozone metamodeling used for assessing the effects of reducing evaporative
VOC emissions was part of a broader effort to determine what additional emissions
controls may be needed to attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2015. In order to
maximize the information we could obtain for use in comparing relative efficacy of
different emissions control strategies, we established an experimental design consisting
of a carefully selected set of air quality modeling runs. For this analysis, we selected an
experimental design that covered three key areas: type of precursor emission (NOx or
VOC), emission source type (i.e., onroad vehicles, nonroad vehicles, area sources,
electrical generating utility (EGU) sources, and non-utility point sources), and location
within or without a 2015 model-projected residual ozone nonattainment area. This
resulted in a set of 14 emissions factors:
1) Nonroad mobile source VOC emissions in residual O3 nonattainment areas
2) Nonroad mobile source VOC emissions in O3 attainment areas
3) Area source VOC emissions in residual O3 nonattainment areas
4) Area source VOC emissions in O3 attainment areas
5) Nonroad mobile source NOx emissions in residual O3 nonattainment areas
6) Nonroad mobile source NOx emissions in O3 attainment areas
7) EGU NOx emissions in residual O3 nonattainment areas
8) EGU NOx emissions in O3 attainment areas
9) Non-EGU point source NOx emissions in residual O3 nonattainment areas
10) Non-EGU point source NOx emissions in O3 attainment areas
11) Onroad mobile source VOC emissions in residual O3 nonattainment areas
12) Onroad mobile source VOC emissions in O3 attainment areas
13) Onroad mobile source NOx emissions in residual O3 nonattainment areas
14) Onroad mobile source NOx emissions in O3 attainment areas
The experimental design for these 14 factors is described in Battelle(2004)6. That
report lists three potential designs; this analysis used design #1. The particular type of
Latin Hypercube design used is called a Maximin Latin Hypercube design. Based on a
rule of thumb often runs per factor, we developed an overall design with 140 runs (a base
case plus 139 control runs). The range of emissions reductions considered within the
metamodel ranged from 0 to 100 percent of the 2015 CAIR emissions. Additionally,
there were runs with emissions increases in these factors by up to 20 percent. This
experimental design resulted in a set of CAMx simulations which serve as the inputs to
the statistical metamodeling.
Because the metamodeling was going to be used to assess the impacts of the
MSAT standards, the experimental design also included "oversampling" (i.e., additional
6 Battelle, Final Experimental Designs for Ozone Modeling, WA2-05 Final Technical Report: Task 7,
Columbus OH, September 2004.
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runs) in the range of 0 to 10 percent control for the nonroad VOC sector. Additional
CAMx runs were completed that only included VOC controls, or were heavily weighted
toward nonroad VOC controls. The modeling was done in a four-step process.
Step 1: Construct a 129 run, Maximin Latin Hypercube design modeling the 14 sectors
and consider emissions factors ranging from 0 to 1.2. Figure 11-2 shows a sample run
within the Step 1 metamodeling.
Step 2: Augment the 129 run design obtained in Step 1 by adding ten more points in an
optimal fashion using the Maximin design criterion while remaining within the class of
Latin Hypercube design. These runs focused on the 0.9 to 1.0 range of VOC emissions
from the area and nonroad categories. Figure II-3 shows the emissions changes
associated with a sample run.
Step 3: A series of 10 "out-of-sample" evaluation runs were also modeled. These runs
are part of the same overall experimental design as the first 139 simulations and are
intended to provide a representative set of points from the policy space that have yet to be
modeled in Steps 1 and 2. The results of these comparisons are discussed in Section III.
Step 4: Because some of our initial testing indicated small differences between VOC-only
standalone7 CAMx modeling runs and the metamodeling predictions, an additional five
runs were modeled that looked at primarily VOC controls. In the end, all 154 runs were
combined to build the CAMx metamodel.
Figure II-2. Sample CAMx simulation within the Step 1 ozone metamodeling.
Example Point in Experimental Design
7 Standalone modeling refers to an individual CAMx simulation of a particular set of emission reductions,
as opposed to the metamodeling technique.
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Figure II-3. Display of three (of the 14) metamodeling dimensions (area VOC,
nonroad VOC, and nonroad NOx) showing the oversampling between 0.9 and 1.0.
Example Experimental Design Combination for 3 Factors
Factor Levels Represent Proportions of Baseline Emissions
Area VOC
1.19
0.80
0.40
0.01
1.19
.19
0.80
Nonroad_WOC 0.40
0.40
Nonroad NOx
0.01
0.01
D. Building the Response Surfaces within the Metamodeling
To develop a metamodeling approximation to standalone CAMx modeling, we
used a multidimensional kriging approach, as described in Battelle (2004). This
modeling approach is well suited to data generated using a non-stochastic computer
model, and can approximate highly nonlinear surfaces as long as they are locally
continuous. We modeled the predicted changes in ozone in each CAMx grid cell as a
function of the weighted average of the modeled responses in the experimental design.
The weight assigned to a particular modeled output depends on the Euclidean distance
between the factor levels defining the policy to be predicted and the factor levels defining
the CAMx experimental run.
A separate response-surface was fit for each ozone metric. Seven metrics were
identified for the MSAT metamodeling.
1) the mean of all 1-hour daily ozone maxima over the 30 modeling days,
2) the mean of all 8-hour daily average ozone maxima over the 30 modeling days,
3) the mean of all 8-hour daily averages (9am to 5pm) over the 30 modeling days,
4) the mean of all 5-hour daily averages (10am to 3pm) over the 30 modeling days,
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5) the mean of all 24-hour daily averages over the 30 modeling days,
6) the sum of all hourly O3 concentrations >= to 0.06 ppm occurring between Sam and
8pm over the 30 modeling days, and
7) the projected 2015 8-hour ozone design values for the 525 counties with recent ozone
monitoring data.
III. Evaluation of Ozone Metamodeling
The metamodeling was validated using three separate techniques. The simplest
approach involved visual inspection of prediction maps and other model output to
confirm overall spatial comparability in the metamodeling predictions versus standalone
CAMx modeled outputs for selected runs within and outside of the metamodeling
experimental design. As a second approach, cross-validation was used to evaluate overall
response-surface performance. In this method, one of the experimental model runs is left
out of the model estimation, and the response-surface model is computed with the
validation run left out. The metamodel is then used to predict the ozone changes for the
factor levels corresponding to the "left out" model run and compared with the actual
CAMx model outputs for that run. A set of standard model performance evaluation
metrics are then computed for that run, including bias, error, normalized bias and error,
and fractional bias and error. This process is then repeated for each experimental design
model run, and the distributions of the performance metrics are then examined over all
155 model runs to gauge the overall performance of the metamodeling across the
experimental design. Finally, out-of-sample validation was also completed, by
comparing predicted values from the metamodeling through steps 1 and 2 with actual
CAMx outputs for a set of 10 model runs that were not part of the initial 139 simulations.
Various visual comparisons were completed to compare the standalone CAMx
modeling to the CAMx metamodel. All generally showed good agreement between the
two techniques. Figure III-l shows sample differences between the design values at two
high-ozone sites for a particular simulation.
Cross-validation and out-of-sample performance metrics for the projected 2015
ozone design value metric are presented in Table III-l. For the cross-validation method,
the mean, minimum, and maximum values of the performance metrics across all 140 Step
1 and 2 model runs are presented. For example, for the mean bias performance metric,
the bias is calculated for each of the 525 counties and then the mean of the bias across
counties is calculated for each of the 140 model runs. The mean of the 140 mean bias
estimates is then calculated and reported in the "Mean" column of Table III-l. The
minimum of the 140 mean bias estimates is reported in the "Minimum" column, and the
maximum of the 140 mean bias estimates is reported in the "Maximum" column. All
performance measures indicate that the metamodel produces very accurate and generally
non-biased predictions of the CAMx model response for the design value metric. The
mean of the spatially averaged error across all 140 runs is only 0.28 ppb, or less than half
a percent in relative terms. This indicates that the metamodel replicates the CAMx
response to emissions changes very well for most emissions combinations and in most
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locations.
For the out-of-sample method, the mean, minimum, and maximum values of the
performance metrics across 10 CAMx validation runs are presented. These results are
very similar to the cross validation results, and as shown in Table III-l also indicate very
good performance of the metamodel (e.g., based on this approach the mean error was
0.26 ppb).
The metrics with the largest errors and biases were the design value and "sum06"
metrics. Performance statistics were also generated for the other five metrics and were
shown to be near zero bias/error.
Table III-l. Validation Performance Metrics for the Predicted Ozone Design Value
Performance Metric
Mean Bias (ppb)
Mean Error (ppb)
Mean Normalized Bias (%)
Mean Normalized Error (%)
Normalized Mean Bias (%)
Normalized Mean Error (%)
Mean Fractional Bias (%)
Mean Fractional Error (%)
Cross Validation (n=139)
Mean
0.01
0.28
0.02%
0.47%
0.01%
0.46%
0.02%
0.47%
Minim
um
-0.52
0.04
-0.91%
0.05%
-1.10%
0.08%
-0.92%
0.05%
Maximu
m
0.79
0.83
1.81%
1.87%
1.13%
1.19%
1.79%
1.85%
Out of Sample (n=10)
Mean
-0.01
0.26
-0.02%
0.44%
-0.02%
0.44%
-0.02%
0.44%
Minimum
-0.35
0.18
-0.61%
0.29%
-0.71%
0.36%
-0.61%
0.29%
Maximum
0.30
0.39
0.44%
0.66%
0.44%
0.58%
0.44%
0.66%
Figure III-l. Comparison of Standalone vs. Metamodeling Design Values for two
locations for a specific in-sample CAMx simulation.
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IV. Summary of Ozone Metamodeling Results
A. Adjusting the MSAT Metamodeling Emissions
The inputs for the response surface metamodel (RSM) are percent adjustments in
emissions from the 2015 RSM base case. These adjustments were calculated by taking
the ratio of a future year inventory projection for each factor compared with CAIR 2015
inventories for each factor for a base case and a control case. As described below,
because the CAIR modeling did not include all of the portable fuel container emissions,
the adjustments also had to account for the missing emissions in the 2015 RSM case.
For the MSAT analysis, the years of interest were 2020 and 2030 which allows
sufficient time for use of the new portable fuel containers to become widespread.
Inventory projections for 2020 were taken from modeling work done for the CAIR.
Inventories for 2030 were based on mobile source inventory model projections and
stationary sources were held constant from 2020 to 2030. As noted above, some of the
spillage emissions associated with portable fuel containers are currently included in the
NONROAD 2004 emissions model, however the remaining emissions were not included
in the CAIR inventories. For the purposes of the MSAT analysis, the remaining portable
fuel container emissions were included as part of the nonroad factor. For additional
detail on the portable fuel container emission projections, see the portable fuel container
inventory TSD.8
As discussed in Section II.A, the modeling domain covers 37 States in the Eastern
U.S. In using the metamodel to calculate the change in air quality associated with a
certain change in emissions, the emissions reductions are applied equally, on a percentage
basis across the domain (i.e., in both projected attainment and projected nonattainment
areas). Since some states have already implemented, or are in the process of
implementing, their own portable fuel container emission control programs, the emissions
reductions from the MSAT controls do not affect each state in the same way. For the
MSAT analysis the metamodel was run twice for the base and control scenario for each
year. The emissions inputs for the two runs reflect the varying level of control projected
for: a) those states with their own portable fuel container control programs and b) those
without a local program. Those states without an independent portable fuel container
control program will experience a larger degree of emissions reductions from the MSAT
controls. There are 25 states in the 37 state RSM domain that do not have their own
portable fuel container control programs. There are 12 states plus the District of
Columbia which do or will have their own portable fuel container control program by
2010. A list of the states with and without their own control program is presented in
Table IV-1.
8 US EPA (2007) Estimating Emissions Associated with Portable Fuel Containers. EPA Document #
EPA420-R-07-001.
10
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Table IV-1. Status of Portable fuel container Control Programs over the 37 States
in the Eastern U.S. Modeling Domain
State
AL
AR
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
Ml
MN
MS
State Portable fuel container
Control Program?
No
No
Planning
Yes
Planning
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Planning
No
No
No
State
MO
NE
NH
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
PA
Rl
SC
SD
TN
TX
VT
VA
WV
Wl
State Portable fuel container
Control Program?
No
No
No
Planning
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
Planning
No
No
No
Planning
Planning
Planning
No
No
The impact of the MS AT controls was then assessed by coupling the results from
two metamodeling runs: 1) states with their own controls and 2) states without existing or
planned State programs. In all, eight RSM simulations were completed:
1) 2020 base / no existing portable fuel container controls,
2) 2020 base / planned or existing portable fuel container control program,
3) 2020 control / no existing portable fuel container controls,
4) 2020 control / planned or existing portable fuel container control program,
5) 2030 base / no existing portable fuel container controls,
6) 2030 base / planned or existing portable fuel container control program,
7) 2030 control / no existing portable fuel container controls,
8) 2030 control / planned or existing portable fuel container control program,
The results from runs 1, 3, 5, and 7 were used for locations within the 25 States
without the MSAT portable fuel container program. The results from runs 2, 4, 6, and 8
were used in the other areas. The coupling approach does not allow for a consideration
of ozone changes resulting from transport. As a result, this modeling is a slightly
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conservative estimate of the actual air quality change which will result from the MS AT
controls.
An example of calculating the NonRoad VOC input adjustment factor for run 1 is
provided below. In that case the RSM input adjustment factor was calculated as follows:
(CCNRALM2020 * 2020 _ 25ratio) + 2020 _ GCB _ 25
(CCNRALM 2Q15 * 2015 _ 25ratio)
where:
CCNRALM 2020 = CAIR control NonRoad VOC inventory for 2020,
CCNRALM 2015 = CAIR control NonRoad VOC inventory for 2015,
2020_25ratio = ratio of 2020 NonRoad VOCs for 25/37 states,
2015_25ratio = ratio of 2015 NonRoad VOCs for 25/37 states, and
2020 GCB_25 = portable fuel container emissions inventory for a base case for
2020 for the 25 states without their own portable fuel container control programs
The final input adjustments for each of the factors used in the MS AT analysis are
shown in Table IV-2 below.
Table IV-2. Input Adjustment Factors used in the MSAT metamodeling
Adjustment Factor
Table
2020 base - 25 state
2020 base -12 state
2020 control - 25 state
2020 control - 12 state
2030 base -25 state
2030 base -12 state
2030 control - 25 state
2030 control - 12 state
NRoad
VOC
1.12
1.07
0.94
0.98
1.16
1.11
0.96
1.01
NRoad
NOx
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.83
OnRd
VOC
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
OnRd
NOx
0.79
0.79
0.79
0.79
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
Area
VOC
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
ECU
NOx
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
NEGU
NOx
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
B. Modeling Results from the MSAT Strategy
Since the net improvement, when population weighted, in the design value metric
was so small, the remaining ozone metrics were not utilized for the MSAT rule, as they
would likely lead to negligible monetized benefits. As discussed in more detail in EPA
guidance on 8-hour ozone model attainment demonstrations, model predictions are used
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in a relative rather than absolute sense to project what levels of ozone will exist in the
future in both base and control cases. These projections are anchored to present-day
ambient concentrations. This is done by calculating a relative reduction factor (RRF)
between any future CAMx simulation and the baseline CAMx simulation (i.e., control /
base). The RRF is then multiplied by the representative baseline observed ozone to yield
the projected future value. In the case of the MS AT modeling, the CAMx baseline was a
2001 simulation, and the representative base ambient period was a three-year average of
8-hour ozone design values from 20019 to 2003. Starting with an observed concentration
as the base value reduces problems in interpreting model results.
The projected 8-hour ozone design value results from the metamodeling for 2020
are shown in Appendix A for the 525 counties within the eastern U.S. modeling domain
that had valid ozone monitoring data for the period between 1999 and 2003. Similar
results for 2030 are shown in Appendix B. Both of these tables contain the model
projected design value to one decimal place (ppb), and the design value change from the
MSAT controls to two decimal places (ppb).
The results indicate that the net effect of the portable fuel container controls is a
very small, net improvement in future ozone, after weighting for population. Table IV.3
shows the population-weighted design value projections in 2020 and 2030, for the base
and MSAT control scenarios. As can be seen, the population-weighted design value over
the eastern U.S. is projected to decrease from 72.20 ppb to 72.15 ppb in 2020 as a result
of this rule. It can be noted from this table that the positive impacts from the rule are less
in 2030 than in 2020. This occurs because NOx emissions are projected to be reduced at
a faster pace than VOC emissions between 2020 and 2030 (see Table IV.2). As a result,
the eastern U.S. airshed is projected to become increasingly NOx-limited and less
responsive to VOC controls.
Table IV-3. 2020 and 2030 Average Eastern U.S. 8-Hour Ozone Design Values in
the MSAT Base / Control Cases, and the Expected Effect of the MSAT Controls
2020 Pop Weighted
2030 Pop Weighted
Base
72.20
70.67
Control
72.15
70.64
Change
-0.051
-0.027
In certain urban areas the effects of the rule are even larger. In particular, for
those areas that are strongly VOC limited the reductions can be larger. For example, in
Kenosha Co., WI, which is the controlling county for both the populous Chicago and
Milwaukee nonattainment areas, the 2020 design value is projected to drop from 87.95 to
87.67 ppb. It is also important to note that the RSM results in Appendix A and B indicate
that the counties which are projected to experience the greatest improvement in ozone
design values are generally also those that are projected to have the highest ozone design
values (see Table IV-4). Those counties that are projected to experience an extremely
9 Because 8-hour ozone design values are themselves, three-year averages of fourth-highest ozone
concentrations over an ozone season, the net effect here is to average ozone over a five-year period (1999-
2003) with the greatest weighting being applied to the base year (i.e., 2001).
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small increase in ozone design values generally have design values that are lower, below
70 ppb.
Table IV-4. 2020 and 2030 Population-Weighted Average Change in 8-Hour Ozone
Design Values for counties in which future design value is projected to be equal to
or above 80
2020
2030
ppb
Projected Change due to MS AT Controls (ppb)
-0.145
-0.153
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United States Office of Air Quality Planning and Publication No. EPA
Environmental Standards 454/R-07-003
Protection Air Quality Assessment Division February 2007
Agency Research Triangle Park, NC
15
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Appendix A: 2020 MSAT Metamodeling Results
State Name
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Arkansas
Arkansas
Arkansas
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Delaware
Delaware
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Florida
Florida
County Name
Baldwin Co
Clay Co
Elmore Co
Jefferson Co
Lawrence Co
Madison Co
Mobile Co
Montgomery Co
Morgan Co
Shelby Co
Sumter Co
Tuscaloosa Co
Crittenden Co
Montgomery Co
Pulaski Co
Fairfield Co
Hartford Co
Litchfield Co
Middlesex Co
New Haven Co
New London Co
Tolland Co
Kent Co
New Castle Co
Sussex Co
Washington Co
Alachua Co
Baker Co
Bay Co
2001-2003
Baseline
79.0
82.0
78.3
86.7
78.7
82.7
79.0
80.0
83.0
91.7
74.0
78.0
92.7
68.0
84.7
98.7
89.3
83.0
98.0
99.0
90.7
93.0
91.3
95.3
93.3
94.3
75.3
72.7
80.0
2015 CAIR
67.4
59.2
59.4
65.5
62.3
62.7
68.0
60.8
66.7
68.2
58.2
58.3
78.0
55.9
68.4
90.6
76.8
70.8
88.4
89.1
81.1
79.1
75.5
81.5
77.3
82.7
55.1
53.8
68.7
2020 Base
66.7
58.3
58.2
63.9
61.4
61.1
67.4
59.8
65.8
66.5
58.0
57.3
76.7
54.9
67.2
89.9
74.6
68.9
86.8
87.6
79.4
76.9
73.4
79.9
75.3
74.2
53.4
52.3
67.9
2020 Control
66.7
58.3
58.2
64.0
61.4
61.2
67.5
59.8
65.9
66.6
58.0
57.3
76.8
55.0
67.2
89.9
74.6
68.9
86.7
87.5
79.4
76.9
73.4
79.8
75.3
74.2
53.4
52.3
67.9
2020
Population
220,357
15,770
88,681
673,910
39,006
343,602
441,060
257,062
133,114
262,960
14,352
192,889
54,856
10,484
382,597
900,915
862,512
199,790
175,771
837,362
274,769
151,381
153,886
569,214
210,515
535,936
266,004
29,729
199,951
Effect of MSAT
controls (ppb)
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.02
0.07
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.04
0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
0.06
0.02
0.07
-------
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Brevard Co
Columbia Co
Duval Co
Escambia Co
Highlands Co
Hillsborough Co
Holmes Co
Lake Co
Lee Co
Leon Co
Manatee Co
Marion Co
Orange Co
Osceola Co
Palm Beach Co
Pasco Co
Pinellas Co
Polk Co
St Lucie Co
Santa Rosa Co
Sarasota Co
Seminole Co
Volusia Co
Wakulla Co
Bibb Co
Chatham Co
Cherokee Co
Cobb Co
Coweta Co
Dawson Co
De Kalb Co
Douglas Co
75.0
71.0
70.3
83.7
64.0
80.3
72.3
76.0
70.7
73.3
79.0
75.7
78.3
73.7
69.7
111
77.3
78.0
69.3
82.0
81.7
111
72.0
76.0
92.0
71.0
77.0
94.7
92.0
82.0
95.3
94.7
53.9
52.8
50.6
70.2
46.3
63.4
58.3
54.8
51.8
57.5
60.9
55.1
56.8
53.2
51.3
59.9
62.3
55.7
51.2
69.0
61.1
56.0
51.4
62.3
77.6
56.6
56.0
71.2
69.7
59.2
74.5
71.2
52.2
51.4
48.9
69.4
44.7
61.9
57.2
53.0
49.9
56.2
59.2
53.7
54.9
51.3
49.4
58.1
60.6
53.7
70.6
68.2
58.8
54.1
49.8
61.4
76.8
55.3
53.7
68.1
67.7
56.7
71.7
68.3
52.2
51.4
49.0
69.4
44.8
61.7
57.2
53.0
50.0
56.3
59.2
53.7
54.9
51.4
49.5
58.2
60.6
53.7
70.3
68.2
58.7
54.1
49.8
61.4
76.9
55.3
53.7
68.1
67.7
56.7
71.7
68.3
586,754
75,039
935,231
342,038
109,389
1,263,025
22,785
283,796
630,873
317,982
384,419
342,271
1,221,146
302,483
1,740,927
447,595
1,027,120
596,212
257,007
204,793
400,885
572,859
561,973
34,713
162,877
251,911
232,098
881,392
133,947
30,379
734,094
137,597
0.01
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
-0.24
0.04
0.02
0.01
0.05
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.04
-0.25
0.04
-0.17
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.10
0.02
0.05
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.02
-------
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Fayette Co
Fulton Co
Glynn Co
Gwinnett Co
Henry Co
Murray Co
Muscogee Co
Paulding Co
Richmond Co
Rockdale Co
Sumter Co
Adams Co
Champaign Co
Clark Co
Cook Co
Du Page Co
Effingham Co
Hamilton Co
Jersey Co
Kane Co
Lake Co
McHenry Co
McLean Co
Macon Co
Macoupin Co
Madison Co
Peoria Co
Randolph Co
Rock Island Co
St ClairCo
Sangamon Co
Will Co
90.7
99.0
72.7
89.3
98.0
86.0
82.0
90.3
85.7
96.3
80.3
76.0
77.3
75.0
87.7
70.7
11.1
78.7
89.0
11.1
83.3
83.3
77.0
76.7
79.3
84.7
79.0
78.7
71.0
83.3
76.0
79.3
70.1
77.6
56.6
66.6
74.3
63.1
62.2
64.3
68.4
72.8
61.8
63.4
62.7
60.0
81.1
66.1
63.1
62.3
72.8
70.2
75.0
74.6
61.3
60.6
62.6
70.7
62.2
63.3
60.6
71.1
59.4
68.9
67.4
74.7
55.3
63.5
72.3
60.9
60.5
62.3
67.2
70.1
60.5
62.4
61.8
59.1
81.3
66.3
62.1
61.3
71.7
69.6
74.2
73.8
60.1
59.8
61.4
69.4
61.4
62.4
59.7
70.0
58.5
68.7
67.4
74.7
55.3
63.5
72.3
61.2
60.6
62.3
67.3
69.9
60.5
62.4
61.9
59.2
81.0
66.1
62.1
61.3
71.5
69.3
74.0
73.5
60.1
59.8
61.4
69.4
61.4
62.5
59.7
70.0
58.5
68.4
148,297
898,343
81,832
896,126
187,382
48,494
201,874
128,213
216,360
106,283
36,461
71,525
190,915
17,745
5,369,914
1,134,209
39,079
9,014
24,278
525,845
819,659
355,735
181,440
112,812
52,570
276,839
193,897
36,381
147,587
250,436
204,341
679,025
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.08
0.31
0.04
0.02
0.10
-0.24
0.02
0.07
0.06
0.09
-0.31
-0.28
0.04
0.01
-0.23
-0.27
-0.22
-0.25
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.05
0.03
-0.30
-------
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Winnebago Co
Allen Co
Boone Co
Carroll Co
Clark Co
Delaware Co
Elkhart Co
Floyd Co
Gibson Co
Greene Co
Hamilton Co
Hancock Co
Hendricks Co
Huntington Co
Jackson Co
Johnson Co
Lake Co
La Porte Co
Madison Co
Marion Co
Morgan Co
Perry Co
Porter Co
Posey Co
St Joseph Co
Shelby Co
Vanderburgh Co
Vigo Co
Warrick Co
Bremer Co
Clinton Co
Harrison Co
76.0
87.7
89.0
84.0
89.3
88.0
80.0
83.7
71.7
88.5
93.3
91.7
86.5
85.0
85.0
86.7
90.7
90.0
91.0
90.0
86.7
90.0
89.0
85.7
89.0
93.5
83.3
87.0
84.5
70.5
78.3
75.7
63.0
72.0
73.0
68.4
73.5
70.4
65.8
70.3
57.9
70.1
76.2
75.0
70.9
69.3
66.6
68.8
80.7
79.4
72.9
74.6
70.6
70.5
78.6
70.5
74.0
76.2
68.3
70.2
69.5
58.8
67.5
64.8
61.5
70.4
71.8
67.4
72.3
69.0
64.5
69.3
57.4
69.1
74.5
73.6
69.4
67.9
65.5
67.5
80.6
78.9
71.2
73.0
69.6
69.7
78.3
69.6
72.8
74.6
67.4
69.3
69.0
57.7
66.3
63.7
61.3
70.4
71.7
67.4
72.3
69.0
64.5
69.4
57.4
69.2
74.5
73.6
69.5
67.9
65.5
67.5
80.2
78.6
71.2
73.1
69.6
69.7
78.0
69.7
72.8
74.6
67.4
69.3
69.0
57.7
66.4
63.7
316,890
372,693
62,319
23,020
117,910
119,281
209,907
85,064
33,695
38,005
278,447
76,531
160,948
40,823
49,252
161,471
492,577
113,133
143,024
901,295
87,704
19,079
186,219
29,059
283,158
49,521
179,061
105,439
66,271
24,995
49,101
16,876
-0.23
0.04
-0.01
0.00
0.03
-0.02
0.02
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.00
0.05
0.03
0.01
0.02
-0.36
-0.32
0.06
0.03
-0.02
0.01
-0.31
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.01
0.05
0.03
-------
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Linn Co
Palo Alto Co
Polk Co
Scott Co
Story Co
Van Buren Co
Warren Co
Linn Co
Sedgwick Co
SumnerCo
Wyandotte Co
Bell Co
Boone Co
Boyd Co
Bullitt Co
Campbell Co
Carter Co
Christian Co
Daviess Co
Edmonson Co
Fayette Co
Graves Co
Greenup Co
Hancock Co
Hardin Co
Henderson Co
Jefferson Co
Jessamine Co
Kenton Co
Livingston Co
McCracken Co
McLean Co
71.0
66.0
58.7
79.0
63.3
74.0
63.3
76.7
81.0
79.0
80.3
83.3
85.3
89.5
83.7
92.5
80.3
85.0
77.3
84.0
78.3
81.0
84.0
82.7
80.0
79.5
84.3
78.0
86.3
85.0
81.7
84.0
60.8
55.1
47.4
67.8
51.5
61.6
51.4
68.5
70.5
69.4
70.7
60.1
68.0
74.0
69.3
76.8
63.2
60.3
62.4
64.0
62.8
65.5
68.5
66.9
63.8
65.7
71.1
62.3
71.3
68.2
65.9
66.4
60.0
54.2
46.3
66.7
50.3
60.5
50.5
67.7
69.5
68.7
69.6
58.8
66.7
72.9
68.3
75.5
62.3
59.5
61.6
62.7
61.5
64.5
68.7
66.5
62.7
64.9
70.2
61.1
70.1
67.2
65.0
65.7
60.0
54.1
46.3
66.7
50.3
60.5
50.5
67.7
69.9
68.7
69.6
58.8
66.7
73.0
68.3
75.5
62.3
59.5
61.6
62.8
61.6
64.5
68.7
66.5
62.7
64.9
70.2
61.1
70.1
67.3
65.0
65.8
224,554
9,154
457,301
176,720
84,771
8,052
53,002
10,077
526,038
27,230
144,221
33,324
124,843
47,850
83,269
94,543
32,249
76,235
101,799
12,923
325,177
39,648
36,856
8,845
107,611
48,211
717,730
55,681
170,113
10,632
73,919
10,377
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
-0.02
0.02
0.32
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.09
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.05
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.03
0.02
0.01
-------
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Maine
Maine
Maine
Oldham Co
Perry Co
Pike Co
Pulaski Co
Scott Co
Simpson Co
Trigg Co
Warren Co
Ascension Parish
Beauregard Parish
Bossier Parish
Caddo Parish
Calcasieu Parish
East Baton Rouge Parish
Grant Parish
Iberville Parish
Jefferson Parish
Lafayette Parish
Lafourche Parish
Livingston Parish
Orleans Parish
Ouachita Parish
Pointe Coupee Parish
St Bernard Parish
St Charles Parish
St James Parish
St John The Baptist Parish
St Mary Parish
West Baton Rouge Parish
Cumberland Co
Hancock Co
Kennebec Co
88.0
75.5
76.3
81.3
70.3
84.0
76.7
84.0
81.7
75.0
84.7
79.7
81.7
87.3
77.7
85.0
85.3
80.7
79.0
83.3
72.0
78.7
73.0
79.3
81.7
77.3
81.7
78.0
85.7
84.7
92.0
77.7
71.0
56.7
56.8
62.4
54.3
63.0
60.4
63.9
75.2
67.5
74.1
69.7
73.8
79.3
67.3
78.2
77.1
71.6
72.7
76.6
65.4
70.2
65.4
71.3
75.0
71.2
75.3
71.8
77.4
73.0
76.8
64.9
70.0
55.7
55.8
61.1
53.4
61.7
59.8
62.9
74.6
67.1
73.3
69.1
73.5
78.7
66.7
77.6
76.4
70.9
72.1
76.0
65.3
70.0
64.7
70.9
74.7
71.0
75.1
71.4
76.5
71.0
74.4
62.7
70.0
55.7
55.6
61.2
53.4
61.8
59.8
62.9
74.7
67.2
73.3
69.1
73.6
78.8
66.8
77.6
76.5
70.9
72.1
76.1
65.3
70.0
64.8
70.9
74.8
71.0
75.1
71.5
76.6
71.0
74.4
62.7
68,732
32,982
77,738
69,071
47,764
17,843
14,302
112,955
116,308
37,481
123,042
265,973
214,593
516,961
21 ,626
33,064
531,771
231,597
98,181
158,340
426,316
163,669
23,240
69,530
56,316
22,447
48,025
53,994
23,836
309,052
56,913
124,170
0.01
0.02
-0.24
0.04
0.00
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.08
0.03
0.03
0.01
0.05
0.08
0.03
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.02
0.02
0.08
0.04
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.06
0.06
-0.03
0.00
0.00
-------
Maine
Maine
Maine
Maine
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Knox Co
Oxford Co
Penobscot Co
York Co
Anne Arundel Co
Baltimore Co
Calvert Co
Carroll Co
Cecil Co
Charles Co
Frederick Co
Harford Co
Kent Co
Montgomery Co
Prince Georges Co
Washington Co
Baltimore City
Barnstable Co
Berkshire Co
Bristol Co
Essex Co
Hampden Co
Hampshire Co
Middlesex Co
Suffolk Co
Worcester Co
Allegan Co
Benzie Co
Berrien Co
Cass Co
Clinton Co
Genesee Co
83.3
61.0
83.0
89.0
101.0
93.0
89.0
91.3
102.7
94.7
90.0
103.7
99.0
88.7
95.0
86.0
82.0
94.7
87.0
92.7
89.7
90.3
87.3
88.7
88.0
85.3
92.0
87.7
88.3
90.0
83.3
86.7
70.4
52.7
69.5
77.6
84.9
81.0
71.2
76.3
85.4
75.6
74.2
89.6
82.3
76.4
80.9
69.3
71.4
80.2
73.2
80.0
80.2
76.7
74.9
75.8
74.9
72.9
79.5
74.0
74.8
74.4
69.0
72.5
68.2
51.6
67.6
75.7
82.3
79.6
69.3
68.1
83.0
73.4
72.2
87.3
79.9
74.1
78.4
67.9
70.2
77.7
71.1
77.6
78.9
74.3
72.6
73.7
72.8
71.0
78.2
72.6
73.9
73.2
67.7
71.1
68.2
51.6
67.6
75.7
82.3
79.6
69.3
68.1
83.0
73.4
72.2
87.3
79.9
74.1
78.4
67.9
70.2
77.6
71.0
77.5
78.9
74.3
72.6
73.7
72.8
71.0
78.0
72.6
73.9
73.2
67.7
70.9
46,017
60,323
155,834
217,887
603,613
826,595
121,391
211,357
108,489
174,404
275,299
320,395
21,370
1,014,224
895,723
149,671
575,702
281,619
130,821
583,227
774,701
449,454
166,475
1,512,313
660,289
811,989
138,052
19,860
167,713
56,429
80,032
448,450
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.16
0.03
0.01
0.02
-0.01
-0.26
-------
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Huron Co
Ingham Co
Kalamazoo Co
Kent Co
Lenawee Co
Macomb Co
Mason Co
Missaukee Co
Muskegon Co
Oakland Co
Ottawa Co
St Clair Co
Washtenaw Co
Wayne Co
Anoka Co
Dakota Co
Mille Lacs Co
Washington Co
Adams Co
Bolivar Co
De Soto Co
Hancock Co
Harrison Co
Hinds Co
Jackson Co
Lauderdale Co
Lee Co
Madison Co
Warren Co
Cass Co
Cedar Co
Clay Co
84.0
83.3
83.0
84.7
85.0
91.0
89.0
80.3
92.0
87.0
86.0
87.7
89.0
88.0
72.5
68.0
72.0
74.5
79.7
78.0
84.3
83.7
83.3
76.3
83.0
76.0
82.0
76.3
76.7
79.0
82.0
84.3
71.9
69.0
67.9
70.7
71.2
84.2
74.7
67.4
79.2
79.2
74.0
78.0
78.0
84.1
60.8
59.0
59.9
61.8
67.2
63.4
69.7
70.9
69.3
59.1
70.4
58.3
62.1
61.2
56.2
70.5
68.6
73.1
70.6
67.6
66.9
69.3
69.9
84.5
73.4
66.3
78.1
78.3
72.6
76.9
76.8
84.3
59.5
57.7
58.7
59.9
66.0
62.7
68.6
70.1
68.3
58.0
69.8
57.8
60.7
60.7
55.4
69.5
67.4
71.8
70.6
67.5
66.6
69.3
70.0
84.2
73.4
66.3
77.9
78.1
72.7
76.6
76.9
84.1
59.5
57.7
58.7
60.0
66.1
62.8
68.7
70.1
68.4
58.0
69.9
57.8
60.8
60.7
55.4
69.5
67.4
71.8
37,998
292,434
263,783
681 ,627
109,629
884,628
33,441
17,744
181,441
1,411,792
317,800
193,628
369,791
1,879,877
416,960
567,662
28,691
334,587
33,275
37,676
174,319
61,194
226,217
267,168
154,372
84,442
95,711
103,396
52,910
116,011
14,974
243,794
0.03
-0.03
-0.26
0.02
0.04
-0.25
-0.01
0.03
-0.21
-0.23
0.09
-0.24
0.03
-0.23
-0.02
0.04
0.01
0.05
0.08
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01
0.06
0.02
0.00
0.06
-0.03
0.03
-------
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Nebraska
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New York
Greene Co
Jefferson Co
Monroe Co
Platte Co
St Charles Co
Ste Genevieve Co
St Louis Co
St Louis City
Douglas Co
Lancaster Co
Belknap Co
Carroll Co
Cheshire Co
Hillsborough Co
Merrimack Co
Rockingham Co
Stratford Co
Atlantic Co
Bergen Co
Camden Co
Cumberland Co
Essex Co
Gloucester Co
Hudson Co
Hunterdon Co
Mercer Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Albany Co
74.7
87.3
79.3
81.7
90.7
84.0
89.3
88.5
67.5
54.0
78.0
66.5
73.7
85.0
73.0
82.7
77.3
91.0
92.5
102.3
96.7
68.0
101.3
89.0
97.7
103.0
100.7
96.0
97.7
111.0
88.3
83.0
59.0
72.1
65.2
72.0
76.5
69.8
76.7
75.6
58.0
47.0
65.0
58.0
62.0
73.9
61.8
72.9
66.5
77.7
84.5
88.3
80.9
63.0
88.2
82.4
85.4
92.4
88.8
83.2
81.8
96.9
77.4
70.7
57.6
70.5
64.5
70.9
75.3
68.5
75.6
74.3
57.3
46.1
62.9
56.6
60.4
72.1
59.7
71.4
64.7
75.7
80.8
87.4
78.9
61.9
83.7
83.6
83.5
91.1
86.8
80.7
79.8
94.7
76.2
68.8
57.6
70.6
64.5
70.9
75.3
68.5
75.4
74.0
57.1
46.2
62.9
56.6
60.4
71.9
59.7
71.1
64.4
75.7
80.8
87.3
78.9
61.9
83.7
83.6
83.5
91.1
86.8
80.7
79.8
94.7
76.2
68.8
288,638
266,558
9,331
104,962
405,732
20,954
1,031,773
298,671
545,559
318,957
65,252
56,418
81 ,662
447,344
159,225
353,429
128,542
286,405
911,737
512,662
153,502
740,227
304,923
603,949
160,454
369,956
858,721
731,191
535,685
642,051
504,685
307,198
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.05
0.03
0.04
-0.22
-0.21
-0.23
0.02
0.02
0.01
-0.02
-0.25
0.01
-0.27
-0.27
0.00
-0.03
-0.04
0.00
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
-0.04
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-------
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
Bronx Co
Chautauqua Co
Chemung Co
Dutchess Co
Erie Co
Essex Co
Hamilton Co
Herkimer Co
Jefferson Co
Madison Co
Monroe Co
Niagara Co
Oneida Co
Onondaga Co
Orange Co
Putnam Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
Saratoga Co
Schenectady Co
Suffolk Co
Ulster Co
Wayne Co
Westchester Co
Alexander Co
Avery Co
Buncombe Co
Caldwell Co
Camden Co
Caswell Co
Chatham Co
Cumberland Co
82.7
91.7
81.0
91.3
96.0
88.5
79.0
74.0
91.7
80.0
86.5
91.0
79.0
83.0
86.0
91.3
86.0
96.0
85.5
77.3
98.5
81.7
84.0
92.0
88.7
77.3
82.0
85.7
80.0
89.7
82.0
87.0
79.5
78.6
66.9
78.1
84.2
75.6
68.2
63.5
78.0
69.4
74.3
80.3
66.3
69.0
74.6
79.3
76.0
83.9
71.8
66.4
89.0
70.0
71.6
83.1
66.8
57.4
61.1
64.4
70.5
67.4
62.2
66.3
79.8
77.5
64.8
76.3
82.9
73.9
66.5
61.9
76.5
67.6
72.5
79.1
64.7
66.9
72.8
111
74.5
81.5
70.0
64.7
88.2
68.5
69.8
82.8
64.8
55.6
59.2
62.5
69.2
65.8
60.3
64.2
79.8
77.4
64.8
76.3
82.8
73.9
66.6
61.9
76.5
67.6
72.5
79.1
64.7
66.9
72.8
111
74.4
81.5
70.0
64.7
88.1
68.5
69.8
82.8
65.1
55.7
59.2
62.5
69.0
65.9
60.3
64.3
1,269,835
140,795
89,286
304,668
951,156
40,688
5,749
64,887
115,332
76,137
759,752
219,840
227,339
461,939
405,639
122,586
2,237,890
538,856
250,621
144,830
1,531,991
191,921
107,277
963,790
39,141
19,660
254,104
91,336
7,947
25,684
61,507
339,753
0.01
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
-0.03
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.04
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
-0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.28
0.05
0.05
0.02
-0.25
0.05
0.05
0.03
10
-------
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Davie Co
Duplin Co
Durham Co
Edgecombe Co
Forsyth Co
Franklin Co
Granville Co
Guilford Co
Haywood Co
Jackson Co
Johnston Co
Lenoir Co
Lincoln Co
Martin Co
Mecklenburg Co
New Hanover Co
Northampton Co
Person Co
Pitt Co
Randolph Co
Rockingham Co
Rowan Co
Swain Co
Union Co
Wake Co
Yancey Co
Allen Co
Ashtabula Co
Butler Co
Clark Co
Clermont Co
Clinton Co
94.7
80.7
89.0
88.0
93.7
89.0
92.0
90.7
86.3
85.0
85.7
81.3
92.3
80.3
100.3
77.3
83.3
90.0
83.0
85.0
88.7
99.7
73.7
87.7
92.7
86.3
87.7
94.0
89.0
88.3
90.0
95.7
69.9
62.2
67.2
70.1
69.5
68.1
69.6
67.9
63.9
62.6
65.4
62.6
68.5
65.6
75.0
63.2
66.9
67.2
65.1
63.1
66.0
74.1
53.3
65.2
70.8
64.6
72.6
80.0
73.6
69.9
72.5
75.7
68.2
60.7
65.2
68.6
67.7
66.1
67.7
77.9
62.3
61.2
63.4
61.2
66.3
77.3
72.7
62.1
65.3
65.7
63.3
64.2
67.1
72.1
52.3
63.1
68.6
62.7
71.5
49.9
72.1
68.1
71.0
74.1
68.2
60.7
65.2
68.6
67.7
66.1
67.7
77.7
62.4
61.2
63.4
61.3
66.4
77.1
72.8
62.1
65.3
65.7
63.4
64.3
67.1
72.1
52.3
63.1
68.6
62.8
71.6
49.9
72.2
68.2
71.0
74.2
40,507
53,258
281,001
57,310
365,216
59,412
56,117
496,393
63,637
44,534
161,038
63,751
80,757
26,134
937,478
234,495
24,837
42,067
185,086
162,119
99,055
156,561
15,966
163,040
947,706
21,660
105,640
107,401
438,844
143,288
236,350
54,121
0.02
0.00
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.02
0.03
-0.21
0.05
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.02
-0.24
0.07
0.02
0.05
0.02
0.05
0.08
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.04
11
-------
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Cuyahoga Co
Delaware Co
Franklin Co
Geauga Co
Greene Co
Hamilton Co
Jefferson Co
Knox Co
Lake Co
Lawrence Co
Licking Co
Lorain Co
Lucas Co
Madison Co
Mahoning Co
Medina Co
Miami Co
Montgomery Co
Portage Co
Preble Co
Stark Co
Summit Co
Trumbull Co
Warren Co
Washington Co
Wood Co
Cherokee Co
Cleveland Co
Kay Co
Me Clain Co
Oklahoma Co
Ottawa Co
86.3
90.3
95.0
98.3
87.0
89.3
85.3
89.3
92.7
85.0
89.0
87.5
88.7
89.0
88.0
87.7
86.3
86.7
92.0
80.3
89.0
94.3
92.5
92.0
87.0
87.0
76.0
77.3
75.0
78.5
80.7
79.0
74.0
72.1
77.0
82.5
69.3
74.3
71.2
71.4
78.9
69.3
70.2
75.5
76.8
71.2
70.5
72.0
68.3
69.6
74.9
63.3
71.7
77.4
74.7
75.1
65.1
73.8
68.4
65.2
66.3
66.6
68.1
71.7
73.0
70.5
75.1
80.7
68.1
72.8
69.1
69.8
77.5
67.9
68.7
74.3
75.5
69.7
72.8
70.3
66.6
68.2
73.4
62.0
70.1
75.5
78.5
73.7
64.3
72.7
67.7
64.1
65.5
65.2
66.7
71.2
72.8
70.5
75.2
80.8
68.1
72.9
69.1
69.6
77.6
67.9
68.7
74.4
75.6
69.8
72.8
70.4
66.7
68.2
73.3
62.1
70.1
75.5
78.3
73.7
64.3
72.5
67.7
64.1
65.5
65.3
66.8
71.2
1,305,880
162,991
1,220,750
113,978
162,603
841,466
67,142
64,724
248,161
64,104
177,293
301,429
439,311
48,938
245,464
200,152
105,363
547,314
174,572
46,037
386,952
564,374
228,159
214,368
63,799
138,096
54,792
260,375
49,620
34,761
721,520
33,536
-0.24
0.00
0.03
0.05
0.02
0.04
0.08
-0.23
0.03
0.02
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01
-0.02
0.05
0.03
0.04
-0.21
0.03
0.02
-0.21
0.02
-0.01
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.03
12
-------
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tulsa Co
Allegheny Co
Armstrong Co
Beaver Co
Berks Co
Blair Co
Bucks Co
Cambria Co
Centre Co
Chester Co
Clear-field Co
Dauphin Co
Delaware Co
Erie Co
Franklin Co
Greene Co
Lackawanna Co
Lancaster Co
Lawrence Co
Lehigh Co
Luzerne Co
Lycoming Co
Mercer Co
Montgomery Co
Northampton Co
Perry Co
Philadelphia Co
Tioga Co
Washington Co
Westmoreland Co
York Co
Kent Co
85.0
93.0
92.0
91.0
92.7
84.3
103.0
87.7
85.5
96.5
86.7
91.0
93.7
89.0
93.0
90.3
85.3
94.0
78.7
93.3
84.7
83.0
91.3
96.3
93.0
84.7
97.5
83.7
87.7
87.7
90.3
95.3
76.4
78.9
76.1
76.8
76.9
67.7
91.8
72.9
70.7
82.2
70.5
76.0
81.0
76.0
75.5
68.9
70.0
78.4
63.9
78.3
67.9
67.4
73.2
84.9
78.1
69.8
87.5
68.5
74.8
73.9
74.8
83.2
75.6
56.3
74.8
69.0
74.7
66.5
90.7
71.6
69.2
80.6
69.0
74.0
79.4
74.5
73.5
68.1
67.9
76.2
62.6
76.3
65.7
65.6
71.4
75.9
86.9
64.4
86.8
66.0
73.9
72.9
73.0
81.2
75.6
56.3
74.8
69.0
74.8
66.5
90.7
71.6
69.2
80.6
69.0
74.0
79.3
74.6
73.5
68.1
67.9
76.2
62.6
76.3
65.7
65.6
71.4
75.8
86.9
64.4
86.8
66.0
73.8
72.9
73.0
81.2
654,835
1 ,234,866
73,516
186,166
405,118
129,726
704,253
141,248
161,236
528,280
87,215
279,565
537,547
289,834
142,965
44,723
204,667
557,896
96,156
334,116
305,105
123,856
124,877
791,523
293,668
57,009
1,322,901
45,790
208,159
377,031
430,126
182,031
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.01
0.01
-0.03
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
13
-------
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Providence Co
Washington Co
Abbeville Co
Aiken Co
Anderson Co
Barnwell Co
Berkeley Co
Charleston Co
Cherokee Co
Chester Co
Colleton Co
Darlington Co
Edgefield Co
Oconee Co
Pickens Co
Richland Co
Spartanburg Co
Union Co
Williamsburg Co
York Co
Anderson Co
Blount Co
Davidson Co
Hamilton Co
Haywood Co
Jefferson Co
Knox Co
Lawrence Co
Meigs Co
Putnam Co
Rutherford Co
Sevier Co
90.3
93.3
84.0
84.7
88.0
81.3
71.0
74.0
86.0
84.3
78.7
84.7
80.7
84.0
85.3
93.0
90.0
80.7
72.3
83.3
89.7
94.0
81.3
90.7
89.0
94.0
94.7
79.3
90.5
85.0
83.3
96.0
78.1
81.3
63.6
67.7
65.8
63.2
55.1
57.4
62.8
64.3
61.8
65.8
61.9
61.1
63.7
70.7
66.3
60.1
55.5
63.2
62.8
68.5
64.9
67.6
71.4
69.6
68.1
59.6
66.2
64.4
63.7
70.2
76.0
78.9
61.7
67.1
63.6
61.8
53.9
61.1
61.2
62.7
60.5
66.0
60.5
59.2
61.7
68.5
63.9
58.2
54.3
61.4
61.0
66.6
63.6
66.2
70.1
67.9
66.7
58.1
65.2
63.0
61.8
68.7
76.0
78.8
61.8
67.1
63.7
61.8
53.9
61.2
61.2
62.7
60.6
66.0
60.6
59.2
61.8
68.5
64.0
58.3
54.3
61.5
61.0
66.7
63.6
66.2
70.1
68.0
66.7
58.2
65.3
63.0
61.9
68.7
622,459
155,633
28,719
169,960
198,579
24,890
181,075
412,802
59,474
39,387
46,823
75,093
26,439
76,009
154,902
378,345
296,741
31,211
38,187
214,589
80,828
137,355
610,103
346,604
20,677
58,984
471,905
48,297
16,125
76,951
276,027
121,221
0.00
-0.03
0.05
0.02
0.03
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.04
0.02
0.00
0.05
0.02
0.07
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.05
0.04
0.07
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.02
14
-------
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Shelby Co
Sullivan Co
SumnerCo
Williamson Co
Wilson Co
Bexar Co
Brazoria Co
Collin Co
Dallas Co
Denton Co
Ellis Co
Galveston Co
Gregg Co
Harris Co
Harrison Co
Hood Co
Jefferson Co
Johnson Co
Kaufman Co
Montgomery Co
Orange Co
Parker Co
Rockwall Co
Smith Co
Tarrant Co
Travis Co
Bennington Co
Arlington Co
Caroline Co
Charles City Co
Chesterfield Co
Fairfax Co
90.7
89.3
89.0
86.3
84.7
85.7
91.0
93.3
91.0
99.0
85.3
92.0
88.3
105.0
76.0
84.0
91.0
89.5
71.5
91.0
78.3
87.5
82.0
82.5
98.3
84.3
79.7
95.7
84.0
89.3
86.0
96.3
73.6
69.9
71.3
65.4
67.6
66.7
82.7
77.6
77.9
81.3
70.4
83.2
76.3
96.4
65.2
68.7
84.1
73.9
60.2
77.9
70.8
71.6
69.7
70.0
82.2
69.4
67.2
83.8
68.8
74.9
71.8
83.0
72.2
68.9
69.9
63.9
66.2
65.8
82.6
75.8
76.4
79.2
69.3
82.7
75.6
96.6
64.6
67.5
83.9
72.9
59.1
76.7
70.5
70.2
68.3
69.3
80.5
68.5
65.6
82.3
66.9
73.8
70.3
81.3
72.2
69.0
69.9
63.9
66.3
65.8
82.6
75.8
76.4
79.2
69.3
82.7
75.6
96.6
64.6
67.5
83.9
72.9
59.1
76.7
70.5
70.2
68.3
69.3
80.5
68.5
65.6
82.3
66.9
73.8
70.3
81.3
1,019,066
167,368
180,862
206,016
128,651
1,811,674
321,123
876,851
2,541,480
678,368
149,313
315,425
130,936
4,142,898
68,328
64,889
265,060
189,419
97,962
533,560
92,568
134,537
80,884
210,351
1,968,880
1,095,409
40,259
198,100
27,308
7,998
376,855
1,210,471
0.06
0.05
0.08
0.07
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
15
-------
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
FauquierCo
Frederick Co
Hanover Co
Henrico Co
Loudoun Co
Madison Co
Page Co
Prince William Co
Roanoke Co
Rockbridge Co
Stafford Co
Wythe Co
Alexandria City
Hampton City
Suffolk City
Berkeley Co
Cabell Co
GreenbrierCo
Hancock Co
Kanawha Co
Monongalia Co
Ohio Co
Wood Co
Brown Co
Columbia Co
Dane Co
Dodge Co
Door Co
Fond Du Lac Co
Green Co
Jefferson Co
Kenosha Co
81.0
84.3
94.0
90.0
89.3
86.3
81.3
85.7
86.0
79.0
86.3
80.7
90.0
88.7
87.3
86.0
88.0
81.7
84.3
87.0
80.0
84.7
87.7
81.7
77.7
77.3
81.0
92.7
79.0
74.5
84.5
98.7
66.8
67.1
77.9
75.5
75.4
65.0
60.5
72.0
68.8
63.2
70.5
60.6
78.8
76.6
75.4
69.6
73.2
60.8
70.3
68.0
63.6
66.5
65.0
69.0
63.7
63.6
67.7
77.9
65.9
61.6
69.5
88.8
65.1
65.4
76.2
73.6
73.5
63.3
58.9
70.3
62.9
61.7
68.6
59.2
81.0
75.3
74.1
67.8
72.1
60.0
75.8
67.2
64.4
65.6
64.0
67.7
62.3
62.0
66.4
76.9
64.9
60.2
68.1
87.9
65.1
65.4
76.2
73.6
73.5
63.3
58.9
70.2
62.9
61.7
68.6
59.2
80.9
75.3
74.1
67.9
72.1
60.0
75.9
67.3
64.5
65.6
63.8
67.8
62.3
61.8
66.4
76.9
64.9
60.3
68.2
87.7
77,054
72,596
108,636
324,561
258,230
14,975
25,922
408,665
102,632
22,630
137,858
30,342
131,423
158,675
73,780
107,293
91,004
37,267
30,462
196,337
88,267
45,941
87,965
270,395
63,885
541,398
101,632
33,971
106,620
39,374
80,430
182,420
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.06
0.02
0.09
0.06
0.05
0.03
-0.25
0.05
0.04
-0.24
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.03
-0.25
16
-------
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Kewaunee Co
Manitowoc Co
Marathon Co
Milwaukee Co
Outagamie Co
Ozaukee Co
Racine Co
Rock Co
St Croix Co
SaukCo
Sheboygan Co
Vernon Co
Walworth Co
Washington Co
Waukesha Co
Winnebago Co
Average over 525 counties
90.0
90.0
73.7
90.7
77.3
95.3
91.7
84.3
72.7
74.3
98.0
71.7
83.3
82.7
82.7
80.0
84.8
75.7
75.9
60.8
79.0
64.9
82.0
81.6
69.1
58.9
59.9
83.6
59.6
70.1
71.8
71.3
66.3
69.8
74.6
74.6
59.8
77.9
64.1
80.5
80.7
67.4
57.5
58.6
82.1
58.5
68.7
70.6
70.4
65.0
68.4
74.6
74.7
59.9
11.1
64.1
80.6
80.4
67.5
57.6
58.7
82.2
58.2
68.7
70.7
70.1
65.0
68.4
20,886
83,779
148,715
899,138
201,422
109,255
209,777
177,297
79,183
74,181
125,032
29,911
115,672
148,756
469,302
182,969
154,603,475
0.00
0.03
0.04
-0.25
-0.01
0.02
-0.24
0.01
0.01
0.07
0.03
-0.26
0.00
0.01
-0.28
0.02
-0.0017
17
-------
Appendix B: 2030 MSAT Metamodeling Results
State Name
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Alabama
Arkansas
Arkansas
Arkansas
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut
D.C.
Delaware
Delaware
Delaware
Florida
Florida
Florida
County Name
Baldwin Co
Clay Co
Elmore Co
Jefferson Co
Lawrence Co
Madison Co
Mobile Co
Montgomery Co
Morgan Co
Shelby Co
Sumter Co
Tuscaloosa Co
Crittenden Co
Montgomery Co
Pulaski Co
Fairfield Co
Hartford Co
Litchfield Co
Middlesex Co
New Haven Co
New London Co
Tolland Co
Washington Co
Kent Co
New Castle Co
Sussex Co
Alachua Co
Baker Co
Bay Co
2001-2003
Baseline
79.0
82.0
78.3
86.7
78.7
82.7
79.0
80.0
83.0
91.7
74.0
78.0
92.7
68.0
84.7
98.7
89.3
83.0
98.0
99.0
90.7
93.0
94.3
91.3
95.3
93.3
75.3
72.7
80.0
2015 CAIR
67.4
59.2
59.4
65.5
62.3
62.7
68.0
60.8
66.7
68.2
58.2
58.3
78.0
55.9
68.4
90.6
76.8
70.8
88.4
89.1
81.1
79.1
82.7
75.5
81.5
77.3
55.1
53.8
68.7
2030 Base
65.2
56.9
56.5
62.1
60.0
59.3
66.0
58.3
64.3
64.6
56.9
56.0
74.8
53.6
65.7
88.8
72.3
66.9
84.8
85.7
77.3
74.4
71.9
71.2
78.1
73.1
51.6
50.6
66.3
2030 Control
65.3
57.0
56.6
62.3
60.1
59.4
66.1
58.3
64.5
64.6
56.9
56.1
75.0
53.7
65.8
88.7
72.3
66.9
84.7
85.7
77.3
74.4
71.9
71.2
78.0
73.1
51.7
50.6
66.4
2030
Population
257,851
16,137
98,992
700,808
40,643
377,947
463,170
280,833
144,575
316,490
13,959
211,108
57,412
11,331
402,406
1,014,302
997,230
207,802
185,717
949,856
294,226
159,148
561,812
165,331
626,208
221,682
283,541
31,771
223,423
Effect of MSAT
controls (ppb)
0.08
0.06
0.08
0.11
0.08
0.09
0.08
0.04
0.13
0.09
0.05
0.06
0.13
0.08
0.03
-0.02
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.12
0.03
0.14
18
-------
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Florida
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Brevard Co
Columbia Co
Duval Co
Escambia Co
Highlands Co
Hillsborough Co
Holmes Co
Lake Co
Lee Co
Leon Co
Manatee Co
Marion Co
Orange Co
Osceola Co
Palm Beach Co
Pasco Co
Pinellas Co
Polk Co
Santa Rosa Co
Sarasota Co
Seminole Co
St Lucie Co
Volusia Co
Wakulla Co
Bibb Co
Chatham Co
Cherokee Co
Cobb Co
Coweta Co
Dawson Co
De Kalb Co
Douglas Co
75.0
71.0
70.3
83.7
64.0
80.3
72.3
76.0
70.7
73.3
79.0
75.7
78.3
73.7
69.7
111
77.3
78.0
82.0
81.7
111
69.3
72.0
76.0
92.0
71.0
77.0
94.7
92.0
82.0
95.3
94.7
53.9
52.8
50.6
70.2
46.3
63.4
58.3
54.8
51.8
57.5
60.9
55.1
56.8
53.2
51.3
59.9
62.3
55.7
69.0
61.1
56.0
51.2
51.4
62.3
77.6
56.6
56.0
71.2
69.7
59.2
74.5
71.2
50.3
49.6
47.3
68.0
43.2
60.1
55.7
51.1
48.1
54.7
57.2
52.0
52.9
49.4
47.6
56.2
58.7
51.7
66.8
56.5
52.1
69.4
48.0
59.9
75.0
53.6
51.4
65.1
65.8
54.4
68.8
65.6
50.4
49.7
47.4
68.1
43.3
59.9
55.8
51.2
48.1
54.7
57.3
52.0
52.9
49.5
47.7
56.3
58.8
51.8
66.9
56.4
52.2
69.1
48.1
59.9
75.3
53.6
51.5
65.1
65.8
54.5
68.8
65.6
647,282
80,706
1,050,884
363,972
129,444
1,527,540
24,117
317,754
716,789
359,757
440,199
379,637
1,664,879
369,515
2,144,969
504,121
1,120,046
668,686
247,180
434,701
687,272
287,570
627,171
40,100
170,309
260,803
275,334
1,212,431
145,411
37,590
861,751
167,327
0.04
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.08
-0.20
0.07
0.04
0.03
0.09
0.07
0.02
0.03
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.09
0.08
0.08
-0.08
0.05
-0.21
0.05
0.03
0.22
0.04
0.11
0.00
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.02
19
-------
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Georgia
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Illinois
Fayette Co
Fulton Co
Glynn Co
Gwinnett Co
Henry Co
Murray Co
Muscogee Co
Paulding Co
Richmond Co
Rockdale Co
Sumter Co
Adams Co
Champaign Co
Clark Co
Cook Co
Du Page Co
Effingham Co
Hamilton Co
Jersey Co
Kane Co
Lake Co
Macon Co
Macoupin Co
Madison Co
McHenry Co
McLean Co
Peoria Co
Randolph Co
Rock Island Co
Sangamon Co
St ClairCo
Will Co
90.7
99.0
72.7
89.3
98.0
86.0
82.0
90.3
85.7
96.3
80.3
76.0
77.3
75.0
87.7
70.7
11.1
78.7
89.0
11.1
83.3
76.7
79.3
84.7
83.3
77.0
79.0
78.7
71.0
76.0
83.3
79.3
70.1
77.6
56.6
66.6
74.3
63.1
62.2
64.3
68.4
72.8
61.8
63.4
62.7
60.0
81.1
66.1
63.1
62.3
72.8
70.2
75.0
60.6
62.6
70.7
74.6
61.3
62.2
63.3
60.6
59.4
71.1
68.9
64.6
71.7
53.7
60.6
69.9
58.7
58.8
60.2
65.4
67.3
59.0
61.1
60.5
57.8
81.8
66.2
60.8
60.0
70.1
68.7
73.0
58.6
59.8
67.9
72.6
58.7
60.1
61.1
58.4
57.2
68.5
68.1
64.6
71.8
53.8
60.6
70.1
59.1
58.9
60.3
65.6
67.1
59.0
61.2
60.6
58.0
81.4
66.0
60.8
60.1
69.9
68.4
72.8
58.6
59.9
67.9
72.3
58.7
60.2
61.2
58.4
57.3
68.6
67.8
168,741
1,006,105
86,555
1,318,759
218,805
55,678
216,384
149,870
229,855
127,341
37,151
73,663
200,561
18,079
5,935,525
1,308,511
41,841
9,066
25,594
575,717
980,211
114,302
54,572
289,084
398,774
198,311
201,305
37,773
149,831
212,810
251,393
764,812
0.04
0.02
0.04
0.03
0.16
0.33
0.08
0.05
0.19
-0.21
0.04
0.13
0.11
0.17
-0.35
-0.30
0.07
0.02
-0.19
-0.27
-0.16
0.03
0.09
0.04
-0.23
0.09
0.03
0.06
0.02
0.06
0.09
-0.31
20
-------
Illinois
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Winnebago Co
Allen Co
Boone Co
Carroll Co
Clark Co
Delaware Co
Elkhart Co
Floyd Co
Gibson Co
Greene Co
Hamilton Co
Hancock Co
Hendricks Co
Huntington Co
Jackson Co
Johnson Co
La Porte Co
Lake Co
Madison Co
Marion Co
Morgan Co
Perry Co
Porter Co
Posey Co
Shelby Co
St Joseph Co
Vanderburgh Co
Vigo Co
Warrick Co
Bremer Co
Clinton Co
Harrison Co
76.0
87.7
89.0
84.0
89.3
88.0
80.0
83.7
71.7
88.5
93.3
91.7
86.5
85.0
85.0
86.7
90.0
90.7
91.0
90.0
86.7
90.0
89.0
85.7
93.5
89.0
83.3
87.0
84.5
70.5
78.3
75.7
63.0
72.0
73.0
68.4
73.5
70.4
65.8
70.3
57.9
70.1
76.2
75.0
70.9
69.3
66.6
68.8
79.4
80.7
72.9
74.6
70.6
70.5
78.6
70.5
76.2
74.0
68.3
70.2
69.5
58.8
67.5
64.8
59.9
68.6
70.3
66.0
71.0
67.5
63.0
68.2
56.5
67.9
72.8
72.0
68.0
66.2
64.1
66.1
78.3
80.8
69.3
71.5
68.4
68.5
78.0
68.5
73.1
71.2
66.2
67.8
67.9
56.5
65.0
62.6
59.7
68.7
70.3
66.0
71.1
67.4
63.0
68.3
56.5
67.9
72.8
72.0
68.1
66.3
64.2
66.1
77.9
80.4
69.4
71.6
68.4
68.5
77.6
68.6
73.1
71.3
66.2
67.9
68.0
56.5
65.1
62.6
348,659
401,733
70,813
25,001
130,432
120,023
232,741
93,369
34,549
40,553
329,451
86,077
191,532
42,370
54,295
184,261
116,540
519,423
148,117
983,012
98,104
19,203
205,015
29,922
53,433
303,062
185,524
106,896
71,745
25,436
48,998
17,580
-0.20
0.08
-0.01
0.01
0.05
-0.05
0.03
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.03
0.00
0.09
0.06
0.02
0.05
-0.36
-0.45
0.13
0.05
-0.04
0.02
-0.34
0.07
0.03
0.04
0.07
0.11
0.08
0.02
0.09
0.05
21
-------
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Iowa
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kansas
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Linn Co
Palo Alto Co
Polk Co
Scott Co
Story Co
Van Buren Co
Warren Co
Linn Co
Sedgwick Co
SumnerCo
Wyandotte Co
Bell Co
Boone Co
Boyd Co
Bullitt Co
Campbell Co
Carter Co
Christian Co
Daviess Co
Edmonson Co
Fayette Co
Graves Co
Greenup Co
Hancock Co
Hardin Co
Henderson Co
Jefferson Co
Jessamine Co
Kenton Co
Livingston Co
McCracken Co
McLean Co
71.0
66.0
58.7
79.0
63.3
74.0
63.3
76.7
81.0
79.0
80.3
83.3
85.3
89.5
83.7
92.5
80.3
85.0
77.3
84.0
78.3
81.0
84.0
82.7
80.0
79.5
84.3
78.0
86.3
85.0
81.7
84.0
60.8
55.1
47.4
67.8
51.5
61.6
51.4
68.5
70.5
69.4
70.7
60.1
68.0
74.0
69.3
76.8
63.2
60.3
62.4
64.0
62.8
65.5
68.5
66.9
63.8
65.7
71.1
62.3
71.3
68.2
65.9
66.4
59.1
53.1
45.1
65.3
49.1
59.2
49.4
66.6
68.2
67.4
68.1
57.2
65.4
71.5
67.1
73.9
61.0
58.4
60.5
61.4
60.2
63.2
67.6
65.6
61.4
63.8
69.1
59.8
68.6
66.0
63.8
64.8
59.1
53.0
45.1
65.4
49.1
59.2
49.4
66.6
68.6
67.5
68.2
57.3
65.4
71.6
67.2
74.0
61.0
58.4
60.6
61.5
60.2
63.3
67.6
65.6
61.5
63.9
69.1
59.9
68.6
66.1
63.8
64.8
244,431
8,704
511,985
187,601
87,916
8,214
58,398
10,386
576,530
28,389
164,435
34,873
145,804
47,545
92,764
100,544
34,486
83,066
108,874
13,367
364,548
40,827
36,804
8,768
115,787
50,196
754,333
64,205
184,172
11,009
79,299
10,460
0.01
-0.01
0.06
0.05
0.03
0.04
-0.04
0.05
0.36
0.06
0.09
0.07
0.03
0.17
0.09
0.03
0.06
0.05
0.11
0.06
0.06
0.03
0.04
0.00
0.04
0.10
0.05
0.09
0.01
0.07
0.04
0.02
22
-------
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Kentucky
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Louisiana
Maine
Maine
Maine
Oldham Co
Perry Co
Pike Co
Pulaski Co
Scott Co
Simpson Co
Trigg Co
Warren Co
Ascension Parish
Beauregard Parish
Bossier Parish
Caddo Parish
Calcasieu Parish
East Baton Rouge Parish
Grant Parish
Iberville Parish
Jefferson Parish
Lafayette Parish
Lafourche Parish
Livingston Parish
Orleans Parish
Ouachita Parish
Pointe Coupee Parish
St Bernard Parish
St Charles Parish
St James Parish
St John The Baptist Parish
St Mary Parish
West Baton Rouge Parish
Cumberland Co
Hancock Co
Kennebec Co
88.0
75.5
76.3
81.3
70.3
84.0
76.7
84.0
81.7
75.0
84.7
79.7
81.7
87.3
77.7
85.0
85.3
80.7
79.0
83.3
72.0
78.7
73.0
79.3
81.7
77.3
81.7
78.0
85.7
84.7
92.0
77.7
71.0
56.7
56.8
62.4
54.3
63.0
60.4
63.9
75.2
67.5
74.1
69.7
73.8
79.3
67.3
78.2
77.1
71.6
72.7
76.6
65.4
70.2
65.4
71.3
75.0
71.2
75.3
71.8
77.4
73.0
76.8
64.9
68.8
54.5
54.4
59.7
52.3
60.3
58.7
61.7
73.4
66.1
72.2
68.1
72.4
77.2
65.4
76.3
75.3
69.4
70.8
75.0
64.7
69.0
63.2
70.0
73.9
70.0
74.1
70.1
74.8
69.0
71.8
60.5
68.8
54.5
54.2
59.8
52.3
60.4
58.7
61.7
73.5
66.2
72.2
68.1
72.5
77.4
65.5
76.4
75.4
69.5
70.9
75.1
64.8
69.1
63.4
70.1
73.9
70.0
74.2
70.3
75.0
68.9
71.8
60.5
78,214
34,370
82,013
75,744
56,301
18,467
14,841
127,507
133,078
39,141
136,707
279,974
231,195
581,616
22,438
33,041
587,866
254,421
102,050
191,024
410,680
173,151
22,960
74,525
60,938
22,557
51,893
53,642
24,811
332,397
58,549
127,089
0.01
0.03
-0.20
0.08
0.00
0.06
0.02
-0.01
0.18
0.06
0.05
0.01
0.09
0.16
0.07
0.10
0.06
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.04
0.05
0.15
0.09
0.01
0.05
0.06
0.11
0.12
-0.02
0.00
0.00
23
-------
Maine
Maine
Maine
Maine
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Maryland
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Knox Co
Oxford Co
Penobscot Co
York Co
Anne Arundel Co
Baltimore City
Baltimore Co
Calvert Co
Carroll Co
Cecil Co
Charles Co
Frederick Co
Harford Co
Kent Co
Montgomery Co
Prince Georges Co
Washington Co
Barnstable Co
Berkshire Co
Bristol Co
Essex Co
Hampden Co
Hampshire Co
Middlesex Co
Suffolk Co
Worcester Co
Allegan Co
Benzie Co
Berrien Co
Cass Co
Clinton Co
Genesee Co
83.3
61.0
83.0
89.0
101.0
82.0
93.0
89.0
91.3
102.7
94.7
90.0
103.7
99.0
88.7
95.0
86.0
94.7
87.0
92.7
89.7
90.3
87.3
88.7
88.0
85.3
92.0
87.7
88.3
90.0
83.3
86.7
70.4
52.7
69.5
77.6
84.9
71.4
81.0
71.2
76.3
85.4
75.6
74.2
89.6
82.3
76.4
80.9
69.3
80.2
73.2
80.0
80.2
76.7
74.9
75.8
74.9
72.9
79.5
74.0
74.8
74.4
69.0
72.5
65.8
50.3
65.4
73.6
79.7
68.6
77.9
67.3
66.2
80.4
71.2
69.9
84.9
77.4
71.8
76.0
66.2
75.1
68.8
75.0
77.6
72.0
70.4
71.6
70.7
68.8
76.1
71.0
72.4
71.6
66.2
69.6
65.9
50.3
65.4
73.6
79.7
68.6
77.9
67.3
66.2
80.4
71.2
69.9
84.9
77.4
71.8
76.0
66.2
75.1
68.8
74.9
77.5
72.0
70.4
71.6
70.7
68.8
76.1
71.0
72.5
71.6
66.2
69.3
48,542
63,013
161,015
231,469
648,839
536,970
912,664
139,212
239,968
119,377
201,208
311,347
362,783
22,334
1,155,446
981,451
160,363
307,672
128,741
634,579
874,741
490,399
171,774
1,635,409
712,565
905,029
158,549
21,732
172,162
59,270
86,214
455,261
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
-0.01
0.00
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.04
0.05
0.04
0.04
-0.02
-0.24
24
-------
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Michigan
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Huron Co
Ingham Co
Kalamazoo Co
Kent Co
Lenawee Co
Macomb Co
Mason Co
Missaukee Co
Muskegon Co
Oakland Co
Ottawa Co
St Clair Co
Washtenaw Co
Wayne Co
Anoka Co
Dakota Co
Mille Lacs Co
Washington Co
Adams Co
Bolivar Co
De Soto Co
Hancock Co
Harrison Co
Hinds Co
Jackson Co
Lauderdale Co
Lee Co
Madison Co
Warren Co
Cass Co
Cedar Co
Clay Co
84.0
83.3
83.0
84.7
85.0
91.0
89.0
80.3
92.0
87.0
86.0
87.7
89.0
88.0
72.5
68.0
72.0
74.5
79.7
78.0
84.3
83.7
83.3
76.3
83.0
76.0
82.0
76.3
76.7
79.0
82.0
84.3
71.9
69.0
67.9
70.7
71.2
84.2
74.7
67.4
79.2
79.2
74.0
78.0
78.0
84.1
60.8
59.0
59.9
61.8
67.2
63.4
69.7
70.9
69.3
59.1
70.4
58.3
62.1
61.2
56.2
70.5
68.6
73.1
69.0
66.0
65.3
67.6
68.3
84.4
71.9
64.8
76.3
77.4
70.5
75.4
75.3
84.2
57.9
56.2
57.3
58.1
64.2
61.4
67.0
68.6
66.7
56.4
68.2
56.6
59.2
59.3
54.0
67.8
66.7
70.2
69.1
65.9
65.0
67.6
68.4
84.1
71.8
64.9
76.1
77.2
70.7
75.2
75.4
84.0
57.9
56.3
57.4
58.2
64.4
61.5
67.1
68.7
66.8
56.5
68.4
56.6
59.3
59.4
54.0
68.0
66.7
70.2
38,789
307,380
277,882
770,873
115,975
959,860
35,801
19,433
190,798
1,572,260
366,864
209,229
401,718
1,862,888
485,744
679,024
32,139
388,944
33,130
35,914
207,134
71,294
248,708
286,101
166,408
88,344
106,167
115,744
54,998
131,423
15,588
277,813
0.07
-0.06
-0.25
0.04
0.09
-0.26
-0.02
0.06
-0.14
-0.21
0.20
-0.20
0.07
-0.21
-0.03
0.09
0.03
0.09
0.16
0.10
0.14
0.15
0.11
0.06
0.14
0.01
0.10
0.04
-0.01
0.14
-0.08
0.07
25
-------
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Missouri
Nebraska
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Jersey
New York
Greene Co
Jefferson Co
Monroe Co
Platte Co
St Charles Co
St Louis City
St Louis Co
Ste Genevieve Co
Douglas Co
Lancaster Co
Belknap Co
Carroll Co
Cheshire Co
Hillsborough Co
Merrimack Co
Rockingham Co
Stratford Co
Atlantic Co
Bergen Co
Camden Co
Cumberland Co
Essex Co
Gloucester Co
Hudson Co
Hunterdon Co
Mercer Co
Middlesex Co
Monmouth Co
Morris Co
Ocean Co
Passaic Co
Albany Co
74.7
87.3
79.3
81.7
90.7
88.5
89.3
84.0
67.5
54.0
78.0
66.5
73.7
85.0
73.0
82.7
77.3
91.0
92.5
102.3
96.7
68.0
101.3
89.0
97.7
103.0
100.7
96.0
97.7
111.0
88.3
83.0
59.0
72.1
65.2
72.0
76.5
75.6
76.7
69.8
58.0
47.0
65.0
58.0
62.0
73.9
61.8
72.9
66.5
77.7
84.5
88.3
80.9
63.0
88.2
82.4
85.4
92.4
88.8
83.2
81.8
96.9
77.4
70.7
56.3
68.9
63.4
69.3
73.7
72.6
74.1
66.9
56.2
45.3
60.8
55.0
58.7
70.1
57.6
69.5
62.8
73.5
79.1
86.2
76.7
60.6
82.3
82.4
81.3
89.3
84.7
78.1
77.6
92.3
74.7
66.7
56.3
69.0
63.4
69.4
73.8
72.5
73.9
67.0
56.0
45.3
60.8
55.0
58.7
69.9
57.6
69.2
62.5
73.5
79.1
86.1
76.7
60.6
82.3
82.4
81.3
89.2
84.7
78.0
77.6
92.3
74.7
66.7
316,059
300,515
9,045
120,065
465,491
283,982
1,074,467
22,680
631,889
363,829
69,093
61,554
84,859
481,661
168,998
385,193
137,864
325,200
992,732
573,079
168,624
812,130
327,831
752,226
176,974
418,099
1,060,757
805,031
585,046
701,827
642,081
323,337
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.10
0.07
-0.16
-0.17
0.08
-0.18
0.03
0.04
0.02
-0.05
-0.22
0.02
-0.27
-0.29
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
0.00
-0.02
-0.02
-0.03
0.00
-0.03
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
26
-------
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
Bronx Co
Chautauqua Co
Chemung Co
Dutchess Co
Erie Co
Essex Co
Hamilton Co
Herkimer Co
Jefferson Co
Madison Co
Monroe Co
Niagara Co
Oneida Co
Onondaga Co
Orange Co
Putnam Co
Queens Co
Richmond Co
Saratoga Co
Schenectady Co
Suffolk Co
Ulster Co
Wayne Co
Westchester Co
Alexander Co
Avery Co
Buncombe Co
Caldwell Co
Camden Co
Caswell Co
Chatham Co
Cumberland Co
82.7
91.7
81.0
91.3
96.0
88.5
79.0
74.0
91.7
80.0
86.5
91.0
79.0
83.0
86.0
91.3
86.0
96.0
85.5
77.3
98.5
81.7
84.0
92.0
88.7
77.3
82.0
85.7
80.0
89.7
82.0
87.0
79.5
78.6
66.9
78.1
84.2
75.6
68.2
63.5
78.0
69.4
74.3
80.3
66.3
69.0
74.6
79.3
76.0
83.9
71.8
66.4
89.0
70.0
71.6
83.1
66.8
57.4
61.1
64.4
70.5
67.4
62.2
66.3
79.5
76.1
62.6
74.3
81.3
71.8
64.7
60.1
74.6
65.6
70.6
77.3
62.9
65.0
70.9
76.0
73.0
79.2
67.8
62.8
86.9
66.6
67.9
82.1
62.9
53.8
57.2
60.4
67.6
64.0
58.4
62.0
79.5
76.1
62.6
74.3
81.3
71.8
64.7
60.1
74.6
65.6
70.7
77.3
62.9
64.9
70.9
75.9
73.0
79.1
67.8
62.8
86.8
66.6
67.9
82.0
63.2
53.9
57.3
60.5
67.4
64.1
58.5
62.1
1,496,920
143,972
88,945
321,300
980,986
41,348
5,874
65,247
119,438
78,603
802,384
224,386
227,123
482,949
445,910
135,035
2,667,144
617,359
274,428
152,224
1,698,384
202,989
113,578
1,087,152
41,672
21,330
280,754
98,493
8,665
27,057
69,459
365,353
0.01
-0.03
0.01
-0.03
-0.02
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
-0.02
-0.02
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
0.01
-0.02
-0.03
0.00
0.00
-0.03
0.27
0.09
0.10
0.05
-0.24
0.10
0.09
0.07
27
-------
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
North Carolina
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Davie Co
Duplin Co
Durham Co
Edgecombe Co
Forsyth Co
Franklin Co
Granville Co
Guilford Co
Haywood Co
Jackson Co
Johnston Co
Lenoir Co
Lincoln Co
Martin Co
Mecklenburg Co
New Hanover Co
Northampton Co
Person Co
Pitt Co
Randolph Co
Rockingham Co
Rowan Co
Swain Co
Union Co
Wake Co
Yancey Co
Allen Co
Ashtabula Co
Butler Co
Clark Co
Clermont Co
Clinton Co
94.7
80.7
89.0
88.0
93.7
89.0
92.0
90.7
86.3
85.0
85.7
81.3
92.3
80.3
100.3
77.3
83.3
90.0
83.0
85.0
88.7
99.7
73.7
87.7
92.7
86.3
87.7
94.0
89.0
88.3
90.0
95.7
69.9
62.2
67.2
70.1
69.5
68.1
69.6
67.9
63.9
62.6
65.4
62.6
68.5
65.6
75.0
63.2
66.9
67.2
65.1
63.1
66.0
74.1
53.3
65.2
70.8
64.6
72.6
80.0
73.6
69.9
72.5
75.7
66.1
59.0
63.0
66.8
65.7
63.9
65.6
76.3
60.5
59.4
61.4
59.6
64.2
75.5
70.3
60.4
63.5
64.0
61.4
62.2
65.1
69.9
51.0
61.0
66.2
60.8
70.1
48.4
70.5
66.3
69.3
72.3
66.2
59.0
63.1
66.9
65.7
64.0
65.6
76.2
60.6
59.5
61.4
59.6
64.2
75.3
70.5
60.5
63.6
64.0
61.5
62.3
65.1
70.0
51.1
61.0
66.3
60.9
70.1
48.4
70.5
66.4
69.4
72.4
44,473
58,997
317,922
58,512
423,099
65,985
60,620
558,009
69,061
49,578
181,623
65,753
90,859
26,343
1,147,728
268,891
26,505
45,544
210,904
186,417
105,514
172,463
17,544
183,569
1,190,984
23,562
105,256
110,570
498,980
142,177
263,985
61,121
0.05
-0.01
0.13
0.06
0.07
0.03
0.07
-0.13
0.09
0.09
0.02
0.01
0.03
-0.23
0.14
0.06
0.09
0.04
0.11
0.17
0.00
0.08
0.01
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.06
0.04
0.07
28
-------
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Cuyahoga Co
Delaware Co
Franklin Co
Geauga Co
Greene Co
Hamilton Co
Jefferson Co
Knox Co
Lake Co
Lawrence Co
Licking Co
Lorain Co
Lucas Co
Madison Co
Mahoning Co
Medina Co
Miami Co
Montgomery Co
Portage Co
Preble Co
Stark Co
Summit Co
Trumbull Co
Warren Co
Washington Co
Wood Co
Cherokee Co
Cleveland Co
Kay Co
Me Clain Co
Oklahoma Co
Ottawa Co
86.3
90.3
95.0
98.3
87.0
89.3
85.3
89.3
92.7
85.0
89.0
87.5
88.7
89.0
88.0
87.7
86.3
86.7
92.0
80.3
89.0
94.3
92.5
92.0
87.0
87.0
76.0
77.3
75.0
78.5
80.7
79.0
74.0
72.1
77.0
82.5
69.3
74.3
71.2
71.4
78.9
69.3
70.2
75.5
76.8
71.2
70.5
72.0
68.3
69.6
74.9
63.3
71.7
77.4
74.7
75.1
65.1
73.8
68.4
65.2
66.3
66.6
68.1
71.7
71.4
68.7
73.1
78.6
66.4
71.2
67.6
67.9
75.8
66.8
66.8
72.7
74.1
67.9
70.8
68.4
64.7
66.5
71.5
60.5
68.3
73.4
76.6
72.0
63.1
71.1
66.8
62.8
64.2
63.8
65.3
70.2
71.2
68.7
73.2
78.7
66.5
71.3
67.8
67.7
75.9
66.8
66.9
72.8
74.2
68.0
70.9
68.5
64.9
66.5
71.5
60.6
68.4
73.5
76.5
72.0
63.1
71.0
66.8
62.8
64.3
63.9
65.4
70.3
1,309,531
188,485
1,337,599
125,839
168,701
860,775
63,718
69,681
259,949
63,818
192,644
318,383
440,472
52,685
246,628
222,625
107,641
546,327
185,929
47,696
394,073
583,129
230,527
243,963
63,121
149,194
60,179
281,929
52,556
37,958
748,499
34,500
-0.20
0.00
0.06
0.09
0.05
0.08
0.16
-0.19
0.06
0.04
0.09
0.09
0.12
0.08
0.09
0.05
0.13
0.03
-0.03
0.09
0.05
0.07
-0.14
0.07
0.05
-0.16
0.03
-0.02
0.10
0.05
0.03
0.06
29
-------
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tulsa Co
Allegheny Co
Armstrong Co
Beaver Co
Berks Co
Blair Co
Bucks Co
Cambria Co
Centre Co
Chester Co
Clear-field Co
Dauphin Co
Delaware Co
Erie Co
Franklin Co
Greene Co
Lackawanna Co
Lancaster Co
Lawrence Co
Lehigh Co
Luzerne Co
Lycoming Co
Mercer Co
Montgomery Co
Northampton Co
Perry Co
Philadelphia Co
Tioga Co
Washington Co
Westmoreland Co
York Co
Kent Co
85.0
93.0
92.0
91.0
92.7
84.3
103.0
87.7
85.5
96.5
86.7
91.0
93.7
89.0
93.0
90.3
85.3
94.0
78.7
93.3
84.7
83.0
91.3
96.3
93.0
84.7
97.5
83.7
87.7
87.7
90.3
95.3
76.4
78.9
76.1
76.8
76.9
67.7
91.8
72.9
70.7
82.2
70.5
76.0
81.0
76.0
75.5
68.9
70.0
78.4
63.9
78.3
67.9
67.4
73.2
84.9
78.1
69.8
87.5
68.5
74.8
73.9
74.8
83.2
74.5
54.8
73.0
67.3
72.4
65.1
89.3
70.1
67.5
78.8
67.4
71.7
11.1
72.8
71.4
66.9
65.6
73.8
61.2
74.1
63.6
63.6
69.5
73.5
85.4
62.8
85.6
63.2
72.5
71.5
70.9
78.9
74.5
54.8
73.1
67.3
72.4
65.2
89.2
70.1
67.5
78.8
67.4
71.7
77.6
72.8
71.4
66.9
65.6
73.8
61.2
74.1
63.5
63.6
69.5
73.5
85.4
62.8
85.6
63.2
72.5
71.5
70.9
78.9
700,141
1,239,357
74,217
191,163
446,661
130,126
768,582
136,712
173,071
574,228
88,529
304,223
556,598
297,196
148,292
46,056
203,918
614,393
98,469
370,859
301,059
127,692
128,130
845,717
315,778
62,617
1,355,981
47,031
211,283
381,899
459,110
191,187
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.03
0.01
0.01
-0.02
-0.02
0.01
-0.02
0.00
0.01
-0.02
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.02
0.00
0.01
-0.02
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
-0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
30
-------
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Providence Co
Washington Co
Abbeville Co
Aiken Co
Anderson Co
Barnwell Co
Berkeley Co
Charleston Co
Cherokee Co
Chester Co
Colleton Co
Darlington Co
Edgefield Co
Oconee Co
Pickens Co
Richland Co
Spartanburg Co
Union Co
Williamsburg Co
York Co
Anderson Co
Blount Co
Davidson Co
Hamilton Co
Haywood Co
Jefferson Co
Knox Co
Lawrence Co
Meigs Co
Putnam Co
Rutherford Co
Sevier Co
90.3
93.3
84.0
84.7
88.0
81.3
71.0
74.0
86.0
84.3
78.7
84.7
80.7
84.0
85.3
93.0
90.0
80.7
72.3
83.3
89.7
94.0
81.3
90.7
89.0
94.0
94.7
79.3
90.5
85.0
83.3
96.0
78.1
81.3
63.6
67.7
65.8
63.2
55.1
57.4
62.8
64.3
61.8
65.8
61.9
61.1
63.7
70.7
66.3
60.1
55.5
63.2
62.8
68.5
64.9
67.6
71.4
69.6
68.1
59.6
66.2
64.4
63.7
70.2
73.6
76.4
59.8
65.6
61.6
60.1
52.3
59.0
59.4
60.8
58.9
63.8
58.8
57.1
59.7
66.3
61.7
56.3
52.7
59.5
59.1
64.5
62.0
64.3
68.5
66.0
64.9
56.6
63.8
61.5
60.0
66.8
73.6
76.4
59.9
65.7
61.7
60.2
52.4
59.1
59.4
60.9
59.0
63.9
58.9
57.1
59.8
66.3
61.8
56.4
52.8
59.5
59.2
64.6
62.1
64.3
68.5
66.1
65.0
56.7
63.8
61.5
60.1
66.8
659,404
167,525
30,215
186,971
216,608
25,990
198,130
469,273
64,292
42,191
50,721
79,076
26,999
81,707
179,823
413,975
326,621
32,024
38,588
242,392
85,642
152,892
697,634
370,667
21,407
66,217
518,950
53,015
18,479
86,013
325,034
147,424
0.00
-0.02
0.09
0.03
0.06
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.02
0.05
0.09
0.08
0.05
0.00
0.10
0.03
0.13
0.08
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.11
0.09
0.03
0.02
0.10
0.08
0.14
0.01
0.04
0.10
0.05
31
-------
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Shelby Co
Sullivan Co
SumnerCo
Williamson Co
Wilson Co
Bexar Co
Brazoria Co
Collin Co
Dallas Co
Denton Co
Ellis Co
Galveston Co
Gregg Co
Harris Co
Harrison Co
Hood Co
Jefferson Co
Johnson Co
Kaufman Co
Montgomery Co
Orange Co
Parker Co
Rockwall Co
Smith Co
Tarrant Co
Travis Co
Bennington Co
Alexandria City
Arlington Co
Caroline Co
Charles City Co
Chesterfield Co
90.7
89.3
89.0
86.3
84.7
85.7
91.0
93.3
91.0
99.0
85.3
92.0
88.3
105.0
76.0
84.0
91.0
89.5
71.5
91.0
78.3
87.5
82.0
82.5
98.3
84.3
79.7
90.0
95.7
84.0
89.3
86.0
73.6
69.9
71.3
65.4
67.6
66.7
82.7
77.6
77.9
81.3
70.4
83.2
76.3
96.4
65.2
68.7
84.1
73.9
60.2
77.9
70.8
71.6
69.7
70.0
82.2
69.4
67.2
78.8
83.8
68.8
74.9
71.8
70.3
67.5
68.1
62.1
64.6
64.5
81.9
73.8
74.4
76.9
67.6
81.5
74.5
96.4
63.8
66.0
82.7
71.3
57.8
75.0
69.4
68.4
66.7
68.1
78.3
67.2
63.8
78.9
80.3
64.8
72.3
68.5
70.4
67.6
68.3
62.2
64.7
64.5
81.9
73.8
74.4
77.0
67.7
81.5
74.5
96.4
63.8
66.0
82.7
71.4
57.8
75.0
69.4
68.4
66.6
68.1
78.3
67.2
63.8
78.9
80.3
64.8
72.3
68.5
1,122,842
174,529
207,450
249,923
147,559
2,366,164
364,164
1,088,455
3,268,299
861,191
166,851
357,291
144,748
5,479,162
71,029
77,394
289,299
220,182
112,925
635,003
97,706
158,229
98,097
231,599
2,558,997
1,560,488
41,545
138,102
218,813
29,903
8,369
435,805
0.13
0.09
0.17
0.14
0.11
0.00
-0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.02
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
-0.02
-0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
32
-------
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Fairfax Co
FauquierCo
Frederick Co
Hampton City
Hanover Co
Henrico Co
Loudoun Co
Madison Co
Page Co
Prince William Co
Roanoke Co
Rockbridge Co
Stafford Co
Suffolk City
Wythe Co
Berkeley Co
Cabell Co
GreenbrierCo
Hancock Co
Kanawha Co
Monongalia Co
Ohio Co
Wood Co
Brown Co
Columbia Co
Dane Co
Dodge Co
Door Co
Fond Du Lac Co
Green Co
Jefferson Co
Kenosha Co
96.3
81.0
84.3
88.7
94.0
90.0
89.3
86.3
81.3
85.7
86.0
79.0
86.3
87.3
80.7
86.0
88.0
81.7
84.3
87.0
80.0
84.7
87.7
81.7
77.7
77.3
81.0
92.7
79.0
74.5
84.5
98.7
83.0
66.8
67.1
76.6
77.9
75.5
75.4
65.0
60.5
72.0
68.8
63.2
70.5
75.4
60.6
69.6
73.2
60.8
70.3
68.0
63.6
66.5
65.0
69.0
63.7
63.6
67.7
77.9
65.9
61.6
69.5
88.8
79.4
63.1
63.5
73.7
74.2
71.7
71.4
61.5
57.4
68.2
61.6
59.9
66.4
72.4
57.6
66.0
70.5
58.9
74.2
65.7
62.6
64.3
62.9
66.3
60.7
60.3
64.8
75.4
63.4
58.7
66.5
86.5
79.3
63.2
63.5
73.7
74.2
71.7
71.4
61.5
57.4
68.2
61.6
59.9
66.4
72.4
57.6
66.1
70.6
58.9
74.4
65.8
62.7
64.3
62.6
66.4
60.7
60.1
64.8
75.4
63.5
58.8
66.5
86.3
1,448,590
88,338
81,277
170,707
125,364
370,542
299,598
16,107
27,476
503,471
111,107
22,981
156,381
78,014
31,538
123,305
89,632
38,379
29,794
198,080
93,661
46,358
87,708
296,461
70,203
618,749
110,358
35,946
113,999
42,534
84,126
203,415
-0.03
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
-0.02
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.16
0.12
0.03
0.19
0.13
0.09
0.06
-0.24
0.10
0.07
-0.21
0.04
0.01
0.03
0.07
0.05
-0.22
33
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Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Kewaunee Co
Manitowoc Co
Marathon Co
Milwaukee Co
Outagamie Co
Ozaukee Co
Racine Co
Rock Co
SaukCo
Sheboygan Co
St Croix Co
Vernon Co
Walworth Co
Washington Co
Waukesha Co
Winnebago Co
Average over 525 counties
90.0
90.0
73.7
90.7
77.3
95.3
91.7
84.3
74.3
98.0
72.7
71.7
83.3
82.7
82.7
80.0
84.8
75.7
75.9
60.8
79.0
64.9
82.0
81.6
69.1
59.9
83.6
58.9
59.6
70.1
71.8
71.3
66.3
69.8
73.1
73.0
58.5
76.4
62.8
78.8
79.3
65.7
57.0
80.4
56.0
57.1
67.1
69.1
68.9
63.6
66.8
73.1
73.1
58.5
76.2
62.8
78.8
79.1
65.7
57.2
80.4
56.0
56.9
67.1
69.2
68.6
63.7
66.8
21,377
86,748
163,544
931,405
225,018
123,762
224,077
190,636
84,530
135,511
86,885
30,988
128,080
162,760
524,598
199,474
173,814,051
0.00
0.06
0.08
-0.22
0.00
0.03
-0.22
0.02
0.13
0.05
0.03
-0.25
0.00
0.02
-0.28
0.04
0.0204
34
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