The  SOLEC  Indicator
                Day 2 Edition: Thursday, October 22, 1998

 INDICATORS FOR GREAT LAKES HEALTH

Dear SOLEC Delegates:

Our second newsletter  reports on the first day of
SOLEC 98. You will notice when you look inside
that we have concentrated mostly on the workshops,
rather than reporting on the plenary proceedings.
And, you will note, that the workshop proceedings
are very abbreviated: the "top three" highlights of
your collective deliberations. The workshops were
recorded in much greater detail than is provided here.
What we are giving you here is just a glimpse into
your "top of mind" responses.

And, you were clear in your messages .... BASIN-
WIDE INDICATORS ARE MUCH NEEDED
AND NECESSARY, but... are these the right ones?
And, you stressed the need to communicate to
various audiences (please see "Basin Wide Indicator
Overview session — Communications Triangle on
page 3.); that there appear to be too many indicators;
and yet we'll have a challenge to agree on which ones
to drop. Discussions ranged from high level process
talks, to detailed discussion by indicator number. We
identified some "forgotten" indicators, some which
cross cut into other areas — such as phosphorus.
Several sessions were very full — human health
attracted the most delegates. Interestingly, early
registrations showed that the Introduction to
Indicators session would be fully attended — and yet
only 16 participated - thanks to Paul Betram and
Nancy Stadler-Salt for an excellent overview in the
morning plenary!
So, we're off to a great start. You may think we've
only scratched the surface in the indicator discussions
but we have a full day today to look at the indicators
from a lake wide perspective. On behalf of the
SOLEC organizers, we thank you for your
participation, and we are looking forward to the
results of today's deliberations.

Sincerely,
                     The Highlights were put together by
                     members of SOLEC's Steering Committee.
                     These people met last night and shared
                     common findings and key themes.

                     •  The need for clear, up front goals, as to what
                        these indicators are trying to show. There is need
                        for clarity on the overall purpose of why we're
                        developing indicators: Who is the audience?
                        What are these indicators intended to do?
                     •  The need for some sort of tiered or organized
                        structure for the indicators e.g. by scale or by
                        audience needs.
                     •  Linkages both within and between indicator
                        categories are needed.
                     •  Endpoints — the need for refinement, specifics,
                        clarity.

                        WHAT'S INSIDE

                        SOLEC 94 and 96 Update

                        Opening Plenary
                        Basin-wide Overview
                        Dr. Bill Rees	
                        Open Waters	
                        Nearshore Waters
                        Coastal Wetlands
                        Land Use	
                        Human Health	
                        Crossword	
                        Stewardship	
                        Nearshore Terrestrial
Paul Horvatin
Co-Chair
HIGHLIGHTS
Harvey Shear,
Co-Chair

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The SOLEC Indicator
SOLEC 98
BACK TO OUR ROOTS  - The PARTIES
COMMITMENT TO THE GREAT LAKES
WATER QUALITY AGREEMENT...

Ron Shimizu and Peter Wise — gave a stimulating
retrospective — about the history of the GLWQA and
its meaning.  Ron stressed that developing indicators
is more timely and relevant than ever - that the
ecosystem approach requires a broader perspective
than just water quality. He stated that we need more
advanced management practices and noted the
significance of these practices since 1987 -e.g.
pollution prevention, sustainable development,
biodiversity, ecosystem health, and exotic species.

"The Great Lakes are a priceless resource that has
suffered much abuse, and in the last 26 years has
become a model for change that other nations are
looking to replicate."

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 SOLEC 98
                      The SOLEC Indicator
BASIN-WIDE INDICATOR OVERVIEW
Adele Freeman, Facilitator

1.      All comments that have been provided
       should be considered in the next steps.  A
       major concern is that some of the
       information will not be considered.
2.      All current work is very much
       appreciated. Nevertheless, there is still a
       lot of work to do.
3.      Current categorization is good but there is
       a need for a cross-categorization including
       linkage to beneficial use.

Big theme between two sessions: Regroup
indicators by scale and by audience.

BASIN-WIDE INDICATOR OVERVIEW
Suzanne Barrett, Facilitator

1.      We need well-defined end points to focus
       the key indicators which can be  reported.
       Stressor and activity (response) indicators
       are useful but they are not end points.
2.      There is a need to "know your audience"
       - to understand which indicators are
       relevant to general public, government
       managers, and monitoring scientists etc.
       Indicators need to MOTIVATE and
       encourage individual behavior. Don't
       lose the richness of information provided
       by the suite of indicators.
3.      When considering end points, the
       question of SCALE becomes very
       important: are the end-points local in
       scale, lake by lake, or basin wide?
Note that many of the proposed indicators are at
the local (canoe-view) scale.
   Few
Indicators
  Many
Indicators
 Media
  and
General
 Public
                  Policy-Makers

                    Managers

                    Scientists
Focus and
 Motivate
  Public
Attention
and Action
           PYRAMID OF AUDIENCES
                  Richness of
                     data
                  mandate for
                     good
                    science
     Patch-Disturbance Species: Any organism
     which, usually by central place foraging,
     degrades a small "central place" greatly and
     disturbs a much larger area away from this
     central core to a lesser extent.  (Human
     beings are a particularly adaptive, highly
     innovative, and therefore competitively
     successful patch-disturbance species.)

          - Dr. William Rees Key Note Address, SOLEC 98 -

     Wednesday's key note speaker, Dr. William Rees,
     delivered an energized and thought-provoking
     address titled "Where on Earth is the Great Lakes
     Basin?" Contrasting the economic world view
     with the environmental world view, Dr. Rees
     identified humans  as a "patch-disturbance
     species" (see definition above) whose
     consumptive habits are supported by a massive
     ecological deficit.  His ecological footprint
     analysis translates our consumption habits into a
     land area measure  — a "footprint" which reflects
     the area required to support that consumption.
     The Great Lakes Basin population generates an
     ecological footprint half the area of the lower
     forty-eight states (or 10 ha per person).
                                                    (Insert picture of footprint)

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                           SOLEC 98
OPEN WATERS I  and  II - Tom Hersey,
Helen Domske, Facilitators

1.      Keep ecosystem objectives in focus and
       reduce the list of indicators to a more
       manageable number.

2.      We must understand the relationships
       between state indicators and pressure
       indicators.

3.      Agency dollars need to be allocated to
       accomplish goals.

4.      Endpoints need to be better researched,
       and must include peer review.

NEARSHORE WATERS - Tija Luste, E.
Marie Phillips & Marcia Damato,
Facilitators

Common themes from Nearshore Waters I, II &
IV:

1.   Overall, the purpose of the indicators is still
    unclear.
2.   More specifics and refinement are needed
    regarding scope and targets for indicators (e.g.
    exotics — not just sea lanprey; fish entrainment
    should not stand alone).
3.   Prioritized/tiered/nested indicators would
    help focus and tie actions  together, and avoid
    competing or contradictory indicators (e.g.
    dams to control sea lamprey, but would also
    fragment fish diversity).
4.   In terms of next  steps: I) need to market
    indicators, get buy-in and  start now; ii) there is
    concern that the  basin-wide indicators will
    displace other established  monitoring
    programs; iii) need  a reality check on
    feasibility of collecting data; some indicators
    may be appropriate for research at a small
    scale, but not realistic for basin-wide
    monitoring.
COASTAL WETLANDS  I - Sheila Greene,
Facilitator

1.      Most important indicator is 4510 -
       wetland area by type.  Critical indicator
       basin wide and binationally.  All in
       agreement.  (Natural and human induced
       changes included).

2.      Group proposed having a tiered structure
       for looking at indicators — look at basin-
       wide view and then more narrowed (site
       specific). If you see a trend in tier 1, look
       at tier II to see why.

3.      Certain cross-cutting issues  are of critical
       importance to wetlands but have been
       handled by other indicator groups, e.g.
       wetland buffers, wetland dependant fish,
       hardened shoreline.

COASTAL WETLANDS  II
Eric Carlson, Facilitator

1.   We need comparable methodologies for
    basin-wide monitoring and data collection.
2.   Wetlands-dependent fish communities are
    distinct from nearshore fish communities.
    ("We want the fish back.")
3.   Work needs to be done at the extensive and
    intensive levels.

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 SOLEC 98
                 The SOLEC Indicator
LAND USE I - Cathy Keenan, Facilitator

1.      Make land use indicators relevant,
       measurable, digestable, credible - so they
       will be endorsed and implemented by
       local land use decision-makers.  (As well,
       frame the indicators to highlight the costs
       of urban sprawl).

2.      Link land use with nearshore terrestrial,
       stewardship. Make the links more clear
       and do more exploration across indicator
       categories.

3.      What are the cumulative impacts of
       population increase and land-use change
       that municipalities are planning for the
       next 20 years, i.e. extra few million in
       GTA - "What is the big picture"?

LAND USE II - Cathy Keenan, Facilitator

1.      Incorporate forestry and mining in
       indicators — need simpler indicator of
       state of land use e.g. forest cover, open
       vs. impervious surfaces, land cover, etc.

2.      Make the link between land use and
       ecological footprint.

3.      What are questions indicators are trying
       to address? Need to start with a very
       general framework.
Human Health I  - Sandra Owens,
Facilitator

1.   The group was not comfortable identifying
    highlights due to the range of opinions and
    issues raised.
2.   There were many different views on the kinds
    of indicators that would be appropriate:
    indicators of effects (causal linkages) or
    exposure; potential of exposure. As a result,
    the discussion did not focus on the specific
    indicators, but on broader questions - such as
    what is the overall purpose of the indicators?
    Targets or baseline values are needed to
    measure against (i.e. values in humans, not
    standards).
3.   The group felt strongly that this was an
    important activity, but that the session did not
    provide enough time to answer the questions
    adequately. It was suggested that a process of
    some kind be set up to assess human health
    indicators in a systematic, detailed way.

Human Health II - Sandra Owens &
Marcia Damato (Facilitators)

\.   We need to put the indicators in a larger context to
    increase understandability.  Look at health
    indicators in the context of North American
    population (has not been useful to concentrate on
    Great Lakes effects only).
2.   Need to choose resilient indicators which are
    independent of management and changing
    resource decisions (e.g. beach closing data depends
    on having monitoring in place). We need to adopt
    indicators that have applicability across borders,
    sectors, populations.  This requires consistent data
    collection methods so that data are "sharable",
    comparable, usable over time, space, and social
    structures.
3.   We need indicators which treat the public as a
    partner, and which lead to outreach, education,
    buy-in, and partnerships. We need to be aware of
    the communications opportunities and the
    messages passed on through indicators. We must
    not mislead people, and need to be sensitive to the
    impact that communication of the indicators will
    have.

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                 SOLEC 98
                                                             SOLEC INDICATORS
                                                                                                               activity
                                                                                                               attainment
                                                                                                               biological
                                                                                                               chemical
                                                                                                               criteria
                                                                                                               data
                                                                                                               data point
                                                                                                               database
                                                                                                               diagnostic
                                                                                                               early warning
                                                                                                               endpoint
                                                                                                               environmental
                                                                                                               Feasible
                                                                                                               goal
                                                                                                               illustration
                                                                                                               indicator
                                                                                                               limitations
                                                                                                               measurement
                                                                                                               milestone
                                                                                                               monitoring
                                                                                                               necessary
                                                                                                               objective
                                                                                                               Dhysical
                                                                                                               pressure
                                                                                                               response
                                                                                                               .ounces
                                                                                                               spectrum
                                                                                                               state
                                                                                                               stressors
                                                                                                               sufficient
                                                                                                               target
                                                                                                               vision
                                        Across
Down
3.



10.


11.



13.

17.

18.



Enough to
characterize
ecosystem
components
General description
of desired ecosytem
condition
Sensitive to
beginning
deterioration (2
words)
Interim target toward
objective
Example of indicator
presentation
Achievment of an
objective


20.


21.
24.



26.


27.


29.

30.
31.

Indicators to analyze
causes of ecosystem
status
Human response
Non-biological,
non-chemical
components of
ecosystem
Existing condition or
status of ecosystem
component
Human reaction to
status and pressure
indicators
Recorded
measurements
Stressor
Within the realm of
possibility
                                                                        1.  Indicator based on
                                                                           ecosystem measurement
                                                                        2.  Features restricting the
                                                                           usefulness of an indicator
                                                                        4.  Set of guidelines for
                                                                           indicator selection
                                                                        5.  Qualitative statement of
                                                                           desired  condition to be
                                                                           attained
                                                                        6.  Single measurement value
                                                                           (2 words)
                                                                        7.  Living ecosystem
                                                                           components
                                                                        8.  Quantitative end point
                                                                        9.  Single quantitative
                                                                           determination of status or
                                                                           condition
                                                                        12. Needed
    13. Activity to collect
       environmental data
    14. Desired reference value
    15. Statement of condition
       needed to achieve goal
    16. Things that influence the
       status of ecosystem
       components
    19. Measureable evidence of
       environmental quality or
       trends
    22. Ecosystem component
       associated with biological
       and physical
    23. Computerized collection of
       information
    25. Series of indicator types
    28. Origins of stressors

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  SOLEC 98                                                    The SOLEC Indicator
               Update on SOLEC 94 and 96 - State of the Great Lakes

 SOLEC is currently in a period of transition C changing from the ad hoc indicators developed and
 used in SOLEC 94 and 96 to a more widely accepted suite of indicators being proposed at SOLEC
 98.  It was thought that rating the old indicators would lead to confusion. Therefore, presented in
 this paper are brief updates on past SOLEC background papers without any indicator ratings.
 Further details will be provided in the 1999 State of the Great Lakes report.

 1.  THE AQUATIC COMMUNITY

 All Lakes are still undergoing changes in community structure due to the effects of invasive exotic
 species and other anthropogenic factors.

 1.1  COMMUNITY STRUCTURE:

 Lake Superior
 Lake Superior's lake trout population continues its recovery. However, deep-water cisco populations
 are decreasing and the recovery of the lake herring population has  halted.

 Lake Michigan
 Yellow perch and bloater chub populations are undergoing prolonged reproductive and recruitment
 failure. Consequently, Lake Michigan's yellow perch fisheries are now at risk at various locations.

Lake Erie
Hexagenia abundance is increasing in Western Lake Erie, and stronger year-classes of yellow perch
and walleye have recently been observed. However, there are concerns about the stability of Lake
Erie fisheries due to multiple influences such as increasing densities of zebra and quagga mussels,
increasing water clarity, decreasing abundance of smelt,  and increasing populations of round goby.

Lake Huron
The fish community of Lake Huron has become very stressed due to increased pressure from exotic
species, from pathogens introduced from hatchery stocks, and from an increasing incidence of
parasites. High abundance of sea lamprey (presumably from the St. Marys River) is suppressing
populations of burbot and lake trout.  A new control program is beginning for the St. Marys River
that promises  to reduce the abundance of parasitic phase of sea lamprey in Lake Huron. Bloater chub
recruitment is declining as well.

Lake Ontario
The biological productivity of Lake Ontario is returning to historic levels as a result of reduced
loadings of phosphorus from Lake Erie and Lake Ontario basin sources, together with effects of
zebra mussels. Ecosystem dynamics continue to shift as alewife, the principal prey for salmon and
trout, and Diporeia, an important benthic invertebrate (in eastern Lake Ontario at 25 to 50 m depth),
abundances decline, while lake trout reproduction continues to increase. More sightings of deepwater
sculpin (Myoxocephalus quadricornis), which was thought to be extirpated, have been reported.

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SOLEC 98
1.2  SPECIES IN THE NEWS:

•  Zebra and quagga mussels: Zebra and quagga mussels continue their range extensions in the
   Great Lakes. Soft sediment colonization has become extensive.
•  Ruffe: Ranges of this nuisance fish species in Lake Superior and Lake Huron appear to be
   expanding.
•  Round goby: The round goby continues to increase in abundance in the Great Lakes. Its rate of
   increase in Lake Erie is more rapid than any other exotic species. Local densities in Lake Erie
   have become so high that native sculpins are being displaced.
•  Diporeia: Diporeia is an amphipod found in deep-water habitats of the Great Lakes and is an
   important component of the food chain. Their decline in abundance has been most noticeable in
   eastern Lake Erie where beds of quagga mussel have become established on soft sediments.
   Diporeia decline has also been observed in the Bay of Quinte and eastern areas of Lake Ontario,
   in southeastern Lake Michigan.
•  Hexqgenia: The recovery of the mayfly of the genus Hexagenia in western Lake Erie is quite
   dramatic. The mayfly recovery was observed in 1993 and showed major advances in 1996 and
   1997.
2.  NUTRIENTS

Concentrations of nutrients remain relatively stable throughout the open waters of the Great Lakes.
However, chlorophyll a concentrations, an indicator of biological productivity, are generally much
reduced, probably due to effects of zebra mussel infestations.

Total Phosphorus
Concentrations of total phosphorus in the open waters of the Great Lakes have remained nearly
stable since the mid-1980's. Observed concentrations in the western basin of Lake Erie continue to
fluctuate widely, while those in the central and eastern basins slightly exceed expected
concentrations based on annual target loadings of phosphorus. Concentrations in Lakes Superior,
Michigan, Huron, and Ontario are at or below expected levels.

Nitrate-Nitrite
Concentrations of nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen in 1996 and 1997 have generally remained stable from
those of previous years. A small increase was observed only for the eastern basin of Lake Erie.

Chlorophyll a
Summer chlorophyll a concentrations in 1996 were lower throughout the Great Lakes than were
observed from the mid-1980's to early-1990's. The reductions were especially evident for all three
basins of Lake Erie and for Lake Michigan.

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 SOLEC 98                                                    The SOLEC Indicator
3.  TOXIC CONTAMINANTS

After a decade or more of decline, the concentration of some contaminants appears to be leveling
off whereas other contaminant concentrations are fluctuating. Concentrations of toxaphene-like
chemicals and mercury appear to be increasing in Lake Superior.

Mercury
•   Concentrations of mercury in fish have not changed significantly for most of the Great Lakes in
    the last decade. There is little difference in mercury levels for lake trout between Lakes. Mercury
    levels in forage fish species such as smelt tend to be higher in the upper Great Lakes.

DDT
•   Concentrations of DDT in fish have remained relatively stable for the last several years. DDT
    levels are still highest in Lake Ontario fish and lowest in those of Lake Superior. There are
    currently no fish consumption advisories for DDT in Great Lakes fish.

PCB
•   Although total PCB concentrations in top predator fish (lake trout, salmon and walleye) remain
    at levels approximately one-tenth that of their peak in the mid-1970's, concentrations are still so
    high that fish consumption advisories remain in place for all five Great Lakes. Fluctuations in
    PCB concentrations that have been observed in Lake Erie and Lake Michigan fish may be
    caused by changes in the composition of the food web.

Toxaphene
•   Elevated concentrations of toxaphene-like chemicals in fish from Lake Superior have caused fish
    consumption advisories to be issued. Research is currently underway to investigate potential
    sources and pathways for this group of chemicals to enter Great Lakes= food webs. Analysis of
    current fish samples and retrospective analysis of archived samples has identified an increase in
    Lake Superior lake trout toxaphene burdens since 1986.

4.  NEARSHORE TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM

Upon reviewing the factors contributing to shoreline physical structure and the diversity of living
communities in the nearshore terrestrial ecosystem,  the conclusion drawn at SOLEC 1996  was that
the health of the land by the lakes, nearshore terrestrial ecosystems, is degrading throughout the
Great Lakes. The situation two years later remains the same.  However, there are a number of efforts
underway to help strengthen our understanding of ecosystem processes and functions in order to
better identify the requirements for protecting and restoring biodiversity:

•   The Chicago Region Biodiversity Council produced The  Chicago Wilderness Biodiversity Atlas.

•   The Ontario Natural Heritage Information Center published Rare Communities of Ontario:
    Freshwater Coastal Dunes in their winter 1997-1998 newsletter.

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  The SOLEC Indicator
SOLEC 98
     The Ontario Natural Heritage Information Center has also tracked the status of the arctic-alpine
     communities along the north shore of Lake Superior (1998).

     The Federation of Ontario Naturalists and The Nature Conservancy's Great Lakes Program
     convened at the Great Lakes Alvar Conservation Workshop.

     The first State of the Great Lakes Islands Report compiled for the U.S.-Canada Great Lakes
     Islands Project of Michigan State University is being released in the fall of 1998.
4. LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT

The effects of urban sprawl and rural development continue to be dominant stresses on
the environment. Development pressure is still radiating outwards from city centers,
moving to rural areas encroaching onto fertile agricultural land. City centers are
suffering from deteriorating economies as a result and available agricultural land for
food production is shrinking. Wildlife populations and wetlands are being severely
affected by widespread development.

Population.
•  Within the last two years the human population of Ontario has increased by almost seven
   percent. This rate is much higher than that predicted at SOLEC 1996, i.e., a growth of 20%
   over the next 20 years.

Development.
•  Sprawl continues as the conversion of land to urban uses greatly exceeds the rate of
   population growth. Automobile distances driven per capita and highway congestion increase
   as sprawl continues.

5. HUMAN HEALTH

There is growing awareness of the endocrine disrupter issue.

•  U.S. legislation in 1996 requires U.S. EPA to evaluate up to 80,000 chemicals for their ability to
   act as endocrine disrupters. The Endocrine Disrupters Screening and Testing Advisory
   Committee (EDSTAC) was formed, and a report was released in 1998. Recommendations were
   proposed for developing a process to prioritize, screen and test chemicals for endocrine
   disrupting activity.

There is strengthening evidence of the relationship between ambient air pollution and health effects
as measured by cardiorespiratory hospital admission.

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 SOLEC 98
              The SOLEC Indicator
STEWARDSHIP - Joanna Kidd, Facilitator

Animated discussions were held on stewardship
indicators. Many suggestions were made on
indicators, metrics, ways to improvement
communication, and potential next steps to further
develop indicators.

Stewardship I

1.   There is a need to develop a clear definition of
    the partnerships we are talking about — they are
    focused on achieving sustainability and ecosystem
    integrity in a particular ecosystem-based
    geographic location (e.g. a watershed).
2.   Stewardship indicators need to operate at varying
    scales, and for both the horizontal and vertical
    axis (across landscapes and upwards to
    government agencies).
3.   There is an opportunity to integrate stewardship
    indicators with those developed by the indicator
    core groups.

Stewardship II

1.   Effective partnership organizations are those
    that: provide individuals with an opportunity to
    be involved; encourage individuals to take
    responsibility for their actions; and foster the
    respect of other participants.
2.   Indicators that measure place-based partnerships
    are necessary, but not sufficient to capture all
    aspects of sustainability.
3.   The stewardship indicators need to be packaged
    in a way to inspire pride and encourage action by
    individuals and organizations..
4.   Metrics should measure change in individuals
    over time (awareness/beliefs/actions).
NEARSHORE TERRESTRIAL I - Vicki
Barron, Facilitator

1.      The proposed indicators represent a good
       start however, the participants did not
       consider in their comments and input the
       issues of implementation and feasibility.
       These need to be considered after indicators
       are more focused.

2.      The indicators need to be focused (selecting
       species, etc.) and cross-referencing needs to
       take place both within the terrestrial
       indicators as well as between indicator
       groups.

3.      Next steps - the indicators could be divided
       by topics and fine tuned with agencies that
       are active in the topic to test pilot the
       implementation.
NEARSHORE TERRESTRIAL II -
Barron, Facilitator
Vicki
1.       Generally speaking the proposed indicators
        are good.  However, it appears there is
        overlap in indicators both within the
        nearshore terrestrial as well as with other
        workshop topics.

2.       The indicators are not, and are not meant to
        be, proactive and responsive.  However,
        some prioritization should take place in
        recognition of impending change.
        Management programs are not stemming the
        loss of the nearshore terrestrial environment.

3.       We lack a comprehensive and systematic
        inventory of the nearshore terrestrial
        environment.

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SOLEC 98
QUOTES

From the Recorder to the facilitator — "where is
everybody?"

"The stewardship indicators are on an intellectual
plane that is too high for the public to grasp."

"A good indicator will draw money"  David
Rockwell

"If you measure it, they will come" —Joe De
Pinto

"We agree to delete mink (laughter)— not the
species, but the indicator!" (CW)

"Just because there are programs for monitoring
in place, it doesn't mean they are the  right
indicators" — Dave Ullrich

"Wetlands are the indicator of Great Lakes
ecosystem health".

"There is a danger when you use language to
describe a system — ecosystem does not pause
out like the English language".
"What we need in economic terms, is an "index"
made up indicators, made up of measurements".

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