CHEMICAL INTEGRITY IN THE GREAT LAKES
            November 29-30, 2005
       CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

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                                     Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION	5
  WhatisSOLEC?	5
  What is Chemical Integrity?	5
  Chemical Integrity Monograph	5
SUMMARY OF CHEMICAL INTEGRITY PLENARY PRESENTATIONS	5
  What is chemical integrity? (Brian Eadie, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes
  Environmental Research Laboratory)	5
  Naturally-occurring chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 1 (Peter Richards, Heidelberg College)	6
  Naturally-occurring chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 2 (Joseph DePinto, LimnoTech Inc.)	6
  Anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 1 (Daniel Hryhorczuk, University of Illinois at Chicago)	6
  Anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 2 (Scott Brown, Environment Canada - National Water
  Research Institute)	6
  Assessing chemical integrity in the Great Lakes basin (Keith Solomon, University of Guelph)	6
CHEMICAL INTEGRITY BREAKOUT SESSIONS - DAY 1	7
  Naturally-Occurring Chemicals - Sessions 1 & 2	7
  Anthropogenic Chemicals - Session 1: What Do We Know?	10
  Anthropogenic Chemicals - Session 2: What Do We Need to Learn?	11
CHEMICAL INTEGRITY BREAKOUT SESSIONS - DAY 2	13
  Naturally-Occurring Chemicals - Session 3: Key Issues and the Path Forward	13
  Anthropogenic Chemicals - Session 3: Key Issues and the Path Forward	15
  Summary Thoughts (Murray Charlton)	19
  Anthropogenic Chemicals	19
APPENDIX A - WORKSHOP AGENDA	21
APPENDIX B - SOLEC 2006 DRAFT AGENDA	25
APPENDIX C - WORKSHOP ATTENDEES	29
APPENDIX D - PLENARY PRESENTATIONS	33

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Please note: Many of the statements included in this summary are the opinions of the individual participants and are not
necessarily those of the federal governments of Canada and/or the United States of America.

                                             INTRODUCTION

What is SOLEC?
The State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conferences (SOLEC) are hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and
Environment Canada on behalf of the two countries. These conferences are held every two years in response to a reporting
requirement of the binational Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA). The conferences are intended to report
on the state of the Great Lakes ecosystem and the major factors impacting it, and to provide a forum for exchange of this
information amongst Great Lakes decision-makers. These conferences are not intended to discuss the status of programs
needed for protection and restoration of the Great Lakes basin, but to evaluate the effectiveness of these programs through
analysis of the state of the ecosystem. The goal of the conference is to provide information to people in all levels of
government, corporate, and not-for-profit sectors that make decisions that affect the Great Lakes and through this to
achieve the overall purpose of the GLWQA, "to restore and maintain the physical, chemical and biological integrity of
the Great Lakes Basin."

These conferences are a culmination of information gathered from a wide variety of sources and engage a variety of
organizations. In the year following each conference, the Governments prepare a report on the state of the Great Lakes
based in large part upon the conference process.

What is Chemical Integrity?
The following definition was proposed in the Chemical Integrity Workshop during SOLEC 2004:

               "Chemical Integrity is Integrity is the capacity to support and maintain a balanced,
               integrated and adaptive biological system having the full range of elements and processes
               expected in a region's natural habitat. "

The purpose of this session was to facilitate planning for SOLEC 2006. This session  considered the state of science on
chemical integrity, the relationship between chemical, physical and biological integrity, and the research that  is currently
being performed or planned for the future.

Chemical Integrity  Monograph
SOLEC organizers are in the initial stages of developing a monograph on the subject  of Chemical Integrity. This book
will be comprised of a series of contributed papers. If possible, papers for each of the topic areas that were explored at the
Chemical Integrity Workshop will be included, as well as some topics  for which there was not enough time for discussion.
Each paper would review the published literature and summarize our current state of knowledge, i.e. What do we know
about a specific chemical? What don't we know but would like to know? What are known or potential impacts from this
chemical on the environment in the Great Lakes basin?  What known or potential impact does the chemical have on
human health in the basin? Each paper should also explore research and monitoring needs and management implications,
i.e. What are the messages to managers?  What are the recommended actions? What  should we do about the situation, if
anything?  Draft papers may serve as reference information for SOLEC 2006, and they would be formally submitted for
publication following the conference.

Co-authors are desired for each paper, particularly from 2 or more sectors, e.g., industry, government, environmental
organizations, and academia, to help ensure a balanced presentation of status and issues.  Consensus is not expected on all
topics, but all pertinent issues should be raised. Disagreement on a subject may be the message itself.

                   SUMMARY OF CHEMICAL INTEGRITY PLENARY PRESENTATIONS

Presentations are posted online at: http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/solec/solec 2006/presentations/index.html

What is chemical integrity? (Brian Eadie, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Great Lakes
Environmental Research Laboratory)

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Brian Eadie discussed issues related to chemical integrity, including: persistent bioaccumulative toxic chemicals (PBTs)
are declining but their presence still results in fish consumption restrictions/advisories; phosphorus is increasing in the
central basin of Lake Erie and nitrogen is increasing everywhere; and chemical contaminant concerns in Areas of Concern
(AOCs).  Dr. Eadie provided suggestions for topics to cover regarding chemical integrity including, but not limited to:
impacts of pharmaceuticals and climate change, aging infrastructure of sewage and water treatment facilities, recruitment
and retention of younger Great Lakes scientists, constituent loads (including tributaries and global loads), and modeling.
He also suggested improving risk assessment tools and using satellite imagery to assist with better defining at chemical
integrity.

Naturally-occurring chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 1 (Peter Richards, Heidelberg College)
Peter Richards discussed trends in water quality in Lake Erie's U.S. tributaries, e.g., general improvements for most
parameters in most rivers during 1975-1995; worsening conditions in total phosphorus, dissolved reactive phosphorus,
and total kjeldahl nitrogen since 1995 with an inflection point between 1993 and 2000; and mixed results for nitrate.  He
also discussed the recent increases in the percentage of phosphorus that is dissolved, and the fact that total nitrogen, total
phosphorus, nitrate, and dissolved reactive phosphorus are decreasing or are at stable levels. He stated that the causes for
some of these trends could be changes in weather, population growth and exurbanization, concentrated animal agriculture,
and global climate.

Naturally-occurring chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 2 (Joseph DePinto, LimnoTech Inc.)
Joseph DePinto discussed the chemical integrity of naturally-occurring substances in the Great Lakes. He explained that
ecological integrity cannot be achieved simply by managing chemical integrity, but that physical and biological integrity
have to be incorporated.  He indicated that we cannot understand chemical integrity in an ecological vacuum, but instead
must understand the ecosystems' feedback mechanisms to define the boundaries of chemical integrity. Ecosystem
integrity cannot be achieved by managing single issues independently of understanding interactions with other
management issues, but instead requires  coordinated modeling, monitoring, and research programs. He concluded with
saying that if we have learned anything over the last 30 years, it is that we need a Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem
Agreement.

Anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 1 (Daniel Hryhorczuk, University of Illinois at Chicago)
Daniel Hryhorczuk discussed persistent toxic substances in the Great Lakes basin, including heavy metals and polycyclic
aromatic hydrocarbons, and chemicals of emerging concern, such as PBDEs.  Key findings included elevated body
burdens of contaminants in persons who consume large quantities of Great Lakes fish; developmental deficits and
neurological problems in children of some fish-consuming parents, endocrine dysfunction among fish eaters; and
disturbances in reproductive parameters. Dr. Hryhorczuk summarized some recent human health studies regarding fish
consumption versus contaminant levels, children's growth and development, endocrine disruption, and reproductive
health. In one study, Windsor, Ontario, ranked the highest of 17 Canadian AOCs for selected health points. He ended his
talk with an overview of some of the known effects of emerging chemicals of concern, such as PBDEs.

Anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 2 (Scott Brown, Environment Canada - National Water
Research Institute)
Scott Brown provided an overview of anthropogenic chemicals including a review of the history of beneficial use
impairments in AOCs. The good news is that many deleterious effects on wildlife and fish have been recognized in recent
decades and some have been mitigated, e.g. the return offish-eating birds populations to the Lake Ontario basin. Dr.
Brown reviewed the most recent data on wildlife and fish health effects in the AOCs, e.g., benthic and pelagic fish,
snapping turtles, herring gulls and mink, and found that health changes are detectable, with effects mostly found at sites
near AOCs.  Early Mortality Syndrome  (EMS) has been observed between hatch and first feeding in Great Lakes
salmonids. EMS is a symptom of degraded ecosystem and its presence emphasizes the need to maintain biodiversity.
Other effects include sporadic blue-green algae blooms and botulism outbreaks.

Assessing chemical integrity in the Great Lakes basin (Keith Solomon, University of Guelph)
The closing plenary presentation, given by Keith Solomon, explained how to assess chemical integrity in the Great Lakes
basin.  He stated that in order to make this assessment, we must identify chemicals of concern as well as sources. We also
need to assess the  effects above the level of the organism and assess the risks  of chemicals of concern; we cannot simply
rely on traditional tests with traditional endpoints.  He concluded by stating that dealing with mixtures is complex and
whole effluent testing offers advantages.

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                         CHEMICAL INTEGRITY BREAKOUT SESSIONS - DAY 1
Naturally-Occurring Chemicals - Sessions 1 & 2
                                                  Mercury
                 What Do We Know?
      What Do We Need to Learn?
       There are 3 forms in the environment; elemental,
       methyl, oxidated
       Sources are widespread
       Smokestacks are a significant source of
       atmospheric input
       There is mercury in zebra mussel tissue
       There are no wildlife consumption guidelines so we
       don't know if anyone has looked at this
       Mercury does trigger fish consumption advisories -
       it's a human health issue
                                                           o
                                                           o
We need to make an assessment about what the
largest mercury contributors are and whether
addressing local issues will be enough. We need to
determine the amounts being deposited from
global, regional and local sources.
We need a better understanding of the mechanisms
of how mercury changes form in the environment.
We need to know how to lower fish consumption
advisories
What are the sources of bio-available mercury,
where are they, and can we remediate?
Can we look at changes in diatom communities
(this is difficult) in sediment cores to determine an
environmental baseline?
We need to keep looking for potential sources.
We need to research nearshore affects in addition to
open lake.
We need to research affects on fish behavior and
wildlife.
                                                Phosphorus
                 What Do We Know?
      What Do We Need to Learn?
       We are able to control it.
       We have made good decisions about controlling
       loads and concentrations beginning in the 1970s,
       but are they still good decisions?
       We know the life histories of Great Lakes fish
       depend on pulses in phosphorus levels. 80% of the
       phosphorus loads to Lake Erie occur in 20% of the
       year.
       There is variability in phosphorus concentrations
       by region, lake and season.
       The season that the pulse occurs is significant. Late
       summer fish production is determined by
       phosphorus cycling.
       Over the long term, phosphorus is a lake-specific
       issue.
       In Lake Erie, the sediments are closely coupled
       with the water column. Because the Lake is
       shallow, the phosphorus is redistributed more
       quickly.
       Residual phosphorus being recycled is a concern
       and tied to tributary sources.
       Residual phosphorus is lake specific.
       Phosphorus is controlled from point but not non-
       point sources.
Target loadings and endpoints
    •   We don't know whether the decisions
       made in the 1970s about acceptable levels
       are valid today with a changed ecosystem.
       Are our decisions about target levels,
       which were based on what we were
       looking at then, still valid today?
    •   What are appropriate loads by watershed?
    •   How are we going to pick desired
       endpoints?
Bioavailability of phosphorus
    •   We don't know whether it is important to
       look at proportions of soluble to total
       phosphorus. The soluble portion has been
       increasing recently.
    •   We don't know about changes in
       bioavailability.
    •   We need to research total and soluble
       phosphorus in this new environment.
Environmental fate and loadings
    •   Naturally occurring pulses - do we know
       about them? We don't know whether we
       have changed the phosphorus pulses.
    •   We need to look at phosphorus on a	

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                                         Phosphorus
          What Do We Know?
      What Do We Need to Learn?
Tributaries are the largest sources, whereas in the
past the largest sources were municipal.
In Lake Erie there has been a reduction in non-
point source loads.
In the Maumee River there are not enough point
sources upstream to account for the phosphorus
load.  Some is from non-point sources.
We have good information on how hydrology of
the  system affects phosphorus loads.
       watershed by watershed basis because the
       mechanisms making phosphorus available
       to aquatic systems are unique to each.
    •  How is the residual phosphorus in systems
       recycled and then eventually sequestered?
    •  No model now exists that deals with
       nearshore vs. offshore loading.
    •  Round out SOLEC reports so we
       communicate the difference between
       offshore and nearshore loads, including
       tributaries.
Monitoring issues
    •  We need to look at a finer scale to
       determine whether phosphorus levels are in
       balance.
    •  Are we  monitoring enough of the
       watershed and the correct sites to get
       accurate results?
    •  Storm drainage, aging infrastructure, etc.,
       are not monitored, and we need to
       determine if they are contributors.
    •  What is  the accuracy of the monitoring
       networks that are in place? Do we need to
       change,  increase frequency of monitoring,
       etc.?
    •  We need better phosphorus data from
       Canada  and  Michigan. Concentrations in
       tributaries may have been measured but
       have not been made available.
We need to focus on regulations for non-point
sources.
                                  Bio-toxins - Cyanobacteria
          What Do We Know?
      What Do We Need to Learn?
We know that we are measuring high
concentrations that cause issues in drinking water
and wildlife.
Chlorophyll is one measure or part of the measure
of photosynthetic capacity but it doesn't give you
biomass.
Human ingestion of algal blooms promotes tumors
and affects the liver.
Less than 20% of water treatment plants remove
microcystins. This requires tertiary treatment.
Occurrence in the environment
    •  We do not know which species is making
           the toxins, and it is different in every
           basin.
    •  We don't know how it is getting into the
           system or whether this is a natural
           phenomena.
    •  What is a bloom? There is no accepted
           definition. What promotes an algal
           bloom and what promotes toxin
           production?
    •  What are the factors of bloom formation
           from one species to another?
    •  Need to know the taxonomy of
           algae/phytoplankton, not just
           chlorophyll type and amount.
Monitoring and measurement	

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                                      Bio-toxins - Cyanobacteria
             What Do We Know?
      What Do We Need to Learn?
                                                               •   We need a finer scale analysis of the
                                                                      problems and integrated monitoring.
                                                               •   There may be a bias in how we are
                                                                      measuring the toxins.
                                                               •   A phosphorus level of 20 micrograms/liter
                                                                      and increasing precedes  a bloom. We
                                                                      need an early warning indicator. There
                                                                      is no predictive measure right now.
                                                           Human health effects
                                                               •   We need human health, epidemiological
                                                                   studies about acute and chronic toxicity.
                                                               •   We may not have established a maximum
                                                                   acceptable contaminant level in the US for
                                                                   microcystins. There are questions about
                                                                   exposure for humans. Do we know
                                                                   exposure levels
                                                               •   What are the effects of small exposures for
                                                                   long periods of time
                                                               •   We need to establish basic understanding
                                                           	of exposure routes.	
                                               Nitrates
             What Do We Know?
      What Do We Need to Learn?
o   Once it is in the system, it is there for good.
    Prevention is preferred.
o   At most environmental levels it is not toxic, but it
    is soluble.
o   75-80% of total nitrogen is nitrates in tributaries
o   It does present problems in groundwater. It is
    being monitored in Ontario and maybe in
    Michigan, but not regularly in the US
o   Municipalities test for it in drinking water
o   10 mg per liter is the guideline for nitrates and 1
    mg for nitrites in the US for drinking water
o   Nitrate concentrations are going up in all the lakes.
o   Lake Superior paper from 1970 sites an increase
    over the last century.
o   Loading is increasing since phosphorus is
    decreasing.
o   The sources of nitrates are acid rain, Concentrated
    Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs), sewage
    treatment plants, (correlations exist between nitrate
    increases  and the amount of it sold for fertilizers.
    The Lake Superior basin is not predominantly
    agricultural, so the source of the increase in Lake
    Superior might be acid rain.)
o   Management tradeoff between phosphorus in
    sediments and nitrates
 Presence, fate and transport in the environment
    •   We do not fully know the nitrogen
        transformations in the system, i.e., the
        nitrogen cycle.
    •   We do not know why concentrations are
        changing. Is it still an issue?
    •   We need to know where the main inputs
        are and how much is coming in before it
        gets diluted.
    •   What is the extent of internal loading
        through nitrification of sediment? What is
        the ratio of nitrate to nitrogen gas?
    •   Is agriculture  a major source? (Corn and
        soybean production have increased in the
        basin)
 Effects on human health
    •   Our knowledge of human health dietary
         impacts  are incomplete.
 Environmental effects
    •   Are nitrates affecting the hatchability of
        fish eggs close to storm sewer outlets?
    •   What effects are there on certain species?
    •   What effects are occurring at wetland (or
        other systems) vegetative  margins? Could
        increases in nitrates be explaining
	population shifts of some  species?	

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                                                  Ammonia
                 What Do We Know?
                                                             What Do We Need to Learn?
    o  This form of fixed nitrogen is released by biota in a
       nitrogen cycle.
    o  Fish are sensitive to un-iodized ammonia.
    o  There have been Green Bay beach closures because
       of toxic ammonia levels.
    o  In most areas, concentrations in the water are at or
       near detection limits.
    o  Concentrations are not high in tributaries unless
       there is a local point source
    o  There are  still incidences of where ammonia may
       affect algal growth.	
                                                    o   Where are the major sources of ammonia in the
                                                        watershed, e.g. sewage treatment plants?
                                                  Chloride
                 What Do We Know?
                                                             What Do We Need to Learn?
    o
    o
This is an indicator of anthropogenic impact on the
ecosystem
It naturally existed at 1 mg per liter, but now
concentrations are much higher
There is an argument that an increase in chloride
concentrations may provide a friendlier
environment for [marine] species to acclimate to
fresh water.
There has been a decrease in chloride
concentrations in the Lower Lakes.
The last studies were from the 1970s.
750 stormwater ponds are sequestering brackish
water.  Late-1990s Toronto studies are raising
concerns because brackish water is coming into
sensitive areas
True marine organisms would not survive with
these levels, only brackish creatures.	
                                                               What are the ecological impacts of increased
                                                               chloride concentrations?
                                                               We don't know what the cumulative impacts might
                                                               be basinwide. We need to revisit because the data
                                                               are 30 years old.
                                                               We should look at loading issues and salt chloride
                                                               relationships.
                                                               Are there issues of cross contamination in aquifers
                                                               of brine?
                                                               Is sodium a limiting nutrient for blue-green algae?
Anthropogenic Chemicals - Session 1: What Do We Know?

Presence of anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin
    o  Discussion included the definition of what we mean by "what do we know?" Full certainty is not possible, but we
       have strong evidence about certain classes of chemicals.
    o  We need to be discussing actual constituents of all of these chemicals; and not just the classes of chemicals.
    o  Sources of Contaminants
           •  Waste water effluent is a source of emerging contaminants and we have not typically looked at waste
              water for legacy contaminants.
           •  There are data about emerging compounds that we can consult from studies conducted outside the basin.
           •  Groundwater contains radon and arsenic
           •  We know some sources of contaminants (for example, mercury) are long-range.  Regulatory action
              outside of the Great Lakes basin is needed.
           •  "New" sources of chemicals are not being monitored
    o  Regarding the "dirty dozen" (legacy chemicals)
           •  See Binational Toxics Strategy documentation for more information.  A lot of research has been done on
              these contaminants.
           •  We have the data to show downward trends but they are still present in the  environment, even after events
              such as the banning of DDT.
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           •   Are the current regulations sufficient? If consensus is that they are sufficient, then why are we still
               addressing issues associated with these contaminants in the environment?
           •   Regulation does not equal virtual elimination.
    o  Modeling
           •   We can predict/model contaminant presence and trends before we measure them in the environment (this
               is true for some, not all)
           •   We need better models and the data to input into the models.

Observed or potential impacts on Great Lakes ecosystem health
    o  The highest priority contaminant class to be focused on in terms of input and quantity should be PBDEs
           •   Their toxicology is unknown
           •   Sediment cores show exponential increases in the 1990s
           •   Are we lacking data about trends of contaminants in the sediment?
    o  Observed feminization in fish and amphibians. Fish are functioning differently but complete feminization is not
       evident. Are there ecosystem effects though? No effects have been documented on Great Lakes function.
    o  Perfluorinated Compounds (PFCs) are persistent in the water column.
           •   Is this a worse problem than persistence in the sediments?
    o  Wildlife are recovering from known legacy contaminants since environmental concentrations of POPs have
       decreased.
    o  It is unknown as to whether wildlife are recovering from chemicals of emerging concern. One theory is that the
       "new" chemicals are not as "bad" as the legacy contaminants.

Observed or Potential Impacts on Human Health
    o  We know that a healthy ecosystem is important to maintain healthy people.
    o  It is harder to detect trends in human health because concentrations of some toxic chemicals are decreasing in the
       environment (see Daniel Hryhorczuk's talk). Therefore, should we now focus studies on fetal exposure AND
       specific times during people's lives when they are more sensitive to exposure, i.e. study PCB levels of people
       born in the  1950s or teenagers going through puberty? There are many potential confounding factors. (A study
       would need archived  cord blood or archived breast milk samples to be rigorous.) Current exposure might not be
       the important exposure to focus on and larger populations need to be surveyed in the future.
    o  Some members of the discussion group claimed we know little about direct exposures of mercury on human
       health in the Great Lakes basin; others claimed that we do know that there are direct effects of mercury exposure
       (via consumption of Great Lakes fish) on human health when a certain does is ingested. This statement was
       challenged by some members who stated we do not have data to support this claim. It was agreed that we think
       we know that there is some sort of problem from eating Great Lakes fish and that the government is using the
       advisories in an attempt to inform the public about the situation and potential impacts. The existence offish
       consumption advisories does not mean that exceeding the advice will result in an impact. Some believe that most
       people don't eat Great Lakes fish (as most fish purchased in supermarkets comes from other locations) and
       therefore the contamination is not from these fish but from air emissions.
    o  The health  of the general population in the Great Lakes basin is based on life expectancy. Since life expectancy in
       the Great Lakes basin has increased over the years, it can be inferred that the health of Great Lakes basin residents
       is also improving/increasing. However, we know very little about actual chemical exposure from the Great Lakes
       and the health impact on basin residents.
           •   This trend could also be due to better health care.
           •   To make this claim, we need to separate fish ingestion from exposure to other media.
           •   Overall population health is not a good indicator for certain at-risk populations that consume a lot of fish.
           •   Studying subsets of populations is the key.  We can't generalize across the Great Lakes basin regarding
               exposure.
           •   The Great Lakes basin is contaminated from a lot of different sources.  Accumulation of contaminants [in
               humans] does not occur primarily via fish consumption.
Anthropogenic Chemicals - Session 2: What Do We Need to Learn?

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    o  There is a need to determine what is in the lakes in terms of chemicals, what the effects of these chemicals are and
       what are the risk assessment paradigms with respect to these chemicals working synergistically.  There is a
       difference between documenting the presence of chemicals and risk assessment.
    o  The trends, sources, loads, etc for each chemical is important information that needs to be determined.
    o  We need to know more about the "mixture" or synergistic effects of these chemicals and the impacts on the
       ecosystem and human health.
    o  Need to develop a priority list of chemicals that need to be addressed. We cannot look at every chemical being
       used, but we can develop a list of priority chemicals to look at and research.
    o  The list of chemicals  [presented to the workshop] is  not accurate as it stands now.
    o  Need to learn how to  categorize these chemicals. For example, in Canada the Domestic Substance List is under
       review. PBT properties, risk assessments, management action required and data gaps for these chemicals are
       being identified. Chemicals with unknown information are also being included on this list.
    o  Endpoints. SOLEC was never given the charge to determine and set endpoints.  Endpoints help to determine
       whether management action or programs are working or need to be modified. Since the Great Lakes Water
       Quality Agreement will be under review, the issue of a lack of endpoints for the Great Lakes indicators should be
       brought forward as a discussion item that needs to be addressed during this review process.
    o  Need timeframe to meet endpoints.

Presence in the Great Lakes watershed
    o  SOLEC reports on a small percentage of compounds - consider expanding  the list.
    o  Chemicals that are or should be added to the list are  below. The comments  related to each chemical can often
       apply to one or more classes of chemicals in the list.
           •  Pharmaceuticals (including SSRIs)
                  •   Other countries have conducted risk assessment studies on pharmaceuticals. No harmful effects
                      were  detected.
                  •   No studies showed health impacts by pharmaceuticals.
                  •   USGS conducted a study regarding  pharmaceutical products in water supply.
           •  Non-prescription drugs (use is completely unknown)
           •  Legacy contaminants
           •  Mercury - global transport and in basin sources are both sources of mercury
           •  PBDEs
                  •   More exploratory work is needed, more analytical methods are  needed.
                  •   Fish consumption in the Great Lakes is not the main route of exposure for PBDEs in humans
                      (currently).
                  •   There are data showing PBDEs are increasing exponentially in  rainbow smelt.
                  •   The longer we continue to use PBDEs, this risk could increase.
                  •   We need to prevent PBDEs from entering the food chain.
           •  Pesticides - global and in-basin sources are  both sources of pesticides.
           •  Polymers (brominated) - breakdown rate in  the environment is unknown
           •  Agricultural chemicals (registered and veterinarian drugs) - screening needed in agricultural and urban
              areas as there is a time lag between emissions and absorption by fish. Temporal trends are needed. Need
              tissue samples and archives to determine temporal trends.
           •  Nanomaterials - not easy to monitor, ubiquitous, non-biodegradable, pass through membranes,
              bioconcentrate
           •  Perfluoride compounds - breakdown rate in the environment is unknown
           •  Leachate from landfills
           •  Surfactants (alkyl phenols)
           •  Metabolites of hormones, pharmaceuticals, mirex, atrazine, etc.
           •  Water effluent
           •  Metals - naturally occurring but when chemical reactions occur, they can change their structure  and
              speciation - free metal ions  (Ca and Mg)
           •  Personal Care Products (PCPs)
                  •   Antibacterial surfactants in PCPs are causing bacterial resistance.


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                  •   These bacteria might not survive in the environment (studies show survival in the lab but not in
                      the field).
           •   Endocrine disrupters - Many chemicals comprise this group; "endocrine disrupters" are an endpoint
               classification
           •   Androgenic and estrogenic-mimicking compounds
                  •   These compounds can cause the effects attributed to endocrine disrupters.
                  •   Estrogen sources can be from farm animals, agriculture, chemicals, etc.
           •   Musks
           •   Carcinogens and mutagens
           •   Road salt (anti-slip agents)

Impacts on Great Lakes basin ecosystem function
    o  A contaminant concentration that may not be high enough to pose risks to humans could cause risk to aquatic
       biota. Do we know or not know this?
    o  General statements about ecosystem function
           •   We know that at high concentrations and exposures of certain chemicals, there are toxicity impacts on
               ecosystem health and function and effects on organism reproduction. Inhibition of lake trout reproduction
               (in the past) is an example.
           •   "Critter level" impacts apply to populations, not individuals.
           •   Ecosystem effects definition needs to include the  spatial scale and area affected.
           •   If you don't know if there is an impact, can you say that there is ^.potential impact?
           •   Keep in mind that just because there is a risk, it doesn't mean that there is a problem.
           •   There are regulations in other nations for some of these chemicals. We might not need to reinvent the
               wheel.
    o  How do we move into risk management? What is the expectation of where we are going?

Summary of what we need to learn
    o  Need to be vigilant because we have done a lot of work on chemicals to get where we  are today. Learn from this
       process and react quicker next time. For example, human  population growth and vehicle miles traveled are
       important indicators of an increase in the release of PBDEs, therefore the trends in usage/emissions need to be
       considered.
    o  If we aren't finding problems, then do we assume that the issues do not exist or do we need to look harder?
    o  We have improved methods to detect chemicals, but still need to determine endpoints  so that progress towards a
       goal can be measured..
    o  Need more money so research can continue, especially long-term monitoring.
    o  Need to expand the list of compounds being reported on.

                         CHEMICAL INTEGRITY BREAKOUT SESSIONS - DAY 2

Naturally-Occurring Chemicals - Session 3:  Key Issues and the Path Forward

Need studies/research about the systems/parameters.
    o  The nearshore is the center of most problems.
    o  We need to assess loadings into the lakes by tributary.
    o  What are the interactions of nutrients in ecosystem function? We need to assess functional approaches,
       productivity, biomass, growth rates within systems.
    o  We need accurate information about primary production

Need risk assessments and cost benefit analyses to prioritize what to study further and monitor—decisions need to be
based on agreement by scientists and managers.

Need long term monitoring of parameters that have been prioritized.
    o  In general, we need long term monitoring on all naturally  occurring chemicals.
    o  We need monitoring on radon/arsenic/nutrients.
    o  Restore long term monitoring to tributaries.
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    o  Expertise is lost when you lose monitoring years. Then there is no message.
    o  We need more atmospheric deposition monitoring, especially for mercury.
    o  Measure the right things. Take into account "Type 3" questions (what are we really looking for?).
    o  Increase replication not duplication.
    o  We don't know what the future is, therefore long term monitoring is essential.
    o  Long term monitoring is undervalued by agencies.
    o  Long term monitoring needs to be better coordinated between Environment Canada and EPA.  If methods differ
       but results are similar, that is ideal.
    o  Data can be shared through the monitoring inventory on binational.net.
    o  Unrealistic expectations about binational monitoring coordination may actually provide a check and balance in the
       long term.
    o  Monitoring can be opportunistic, e.g., vessels on the lakes can measure more than one thing at a time.
    o  Nearshore monitoring is expensive but necessary.
    o  We need indicators for mass balance and rate of accumulation of phosphorus (e.g., lawn care, fertilizers, urban
       areas, groundwater, inland lake eutrophication, feed lots).

Need to inhabit appropriate models with data from the studies and monitoring
    o  We need data on all naturally occurring chemicals for the models.
    o  We need models that are hypothesis driven.
    o  We need to be able to parameterize the models.
    o  Previous models aren't appropriate today due to invasive species and loadings.
    o  Models need to be holistic enough to include the entire food web.
    o  We need wetlands and riverine modeling.

Need to determine bounded endpoints  based on science for those parameters that are important or prioritized.

Manage systems based on the studies,  monitoring, and models. This requires communication.
    o  Laws exist for arsenic but not  for phosphorus, which is just as important.
    o  Monitoring is useless unless it becomes information and is shared.
    o  Coordination and management needs dollars and people. Funding requirements need to be well stated and
       directed at the appropriate agency. A contingency fund for unexpected problems needs to be included in cost
       estimates.
    o  Agricultural systems  are primarily voluntary. Therefore, we need a watershed approach and additional
       information for managers regarding best management practices.
    o  Managers need to understand the  importance of letting researchers meet and talk.
    o  Researchers need to talk frequently with environmental managers about problems and needs (e.g., Lake Erie
       Millennium).
    o  We need to inform managers about connection between groundwater, nearshore, and open lake.
    o  We need to get information out there on a constant basis. We need to be more articulate.
    o  NEMO (non-point education for municipal officials) is a model we should look at.

This is a continuing process requiring vigilance.
    o  It will be necessary to continue long term studies, modeling, and monitoring, because while we will solve some
       problems, new ones will emerge.
    o  Each Lake needs to have an equivalent of the Lake Erie Millennium group.

Summary
    o  Long term assessment programs need to be maintained.
    o  Old models need to be revamped because of changes in the system. We need models to integrate what we are
       learning, so we better understand  the system. How  serious is this for decision making?
    o  Researchers need to be funded to  share information and to keep flinders' concerns in mind.
           •   Make better use ofbinational.net.
           •   There is a need for researchers to talk.  Establish a Millennium-like equivalent for each lake.
           •   Maintain adequate and consistent funding.
           •   Translate information  and present it to managers.

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Anthropogenic Chemicals - Session 3: Key Issues and the Path Forward

Priority Chemicals List
    o  Find a process to identify and prioritize these chemicals and processes. This could be a useful piece for the
       replacement of Annex 1 in the GLWQA.  Current Annex is static and needs to be updated and revised.
    o  We need to identify the chemicals that we have consensus on and get the funding.
    o  Set aside chemicals that are not problematic. Perhaps we are including chemicals in the list that don't need to be
       researched. However, it is a waste of resources looking at a very specific suite of chemicals just because they are
       easy to measure.
    o  As we prioritize the list, we can remove chemicals during this process as well. Don't get caught up in making
       lists.  Don't be afraid to de-list. The removal of chemicals may show progress.
    o  Economic analyses: cost  effectiveness / cost benefit analyses to be included in these prioritization approaches.
    o  Use the Domestic Substance List to identify existing chemical compounds and to assist with the development of
       the priority chemical list for the Great Lakes.

Human Health Issues
    o  Finish the job on legacy contaminants. As long as there are fish consumption advisories, there is the perception
       that there is a problem. Is there a reference or an endpoint?
    o  We need to be better at developing messages for the public. The public is very confused, for example, about
       pesticide bylaws and advisories and whether or not they should use pesticides or eat fish from the Great Lakes.
       Clear and concise messaging is needed.
    o  Trends in cancer rates are leveling out (incidences) except for lung and skin cancer. Refer to the Center for
       Disease Control (CDC) website. There is a causal relationship between skin cancer and the sun and lung cancer
       and smoking. If our drinking water was causing these things, we would see it.
    o  There are increased incidences of cancer rates in young people, increased cancer rates in non-smoking people,
       etc., that are a result of multiple causes.
    o  We are dealing with a chemical soup in the environment. Epidemiology is associated with statistics that cannot
       determine causality. We should not be encouraged to be able to identify one chemical that is hurtful from
       epidemiological studies when exposure is to many chemicals.
    o  Epidemiological language may not be the best to use,  but rather human health effects in response to chemicals,
       not based on cancer endpoints, but rather  neuro, renal results, etc.
    o  Studies in recent years show that thallium acts like methyl mercury. Sediment core studies from Switzerland  show
       neurotoxin issues similar to methyl mercury.

Ecosystem Health Issues
    o  There seems to be reduced interest in ecosystem health. Much money is going into human health, but not
       ecosystem health.
    o  We need to legitimize the importance of ecosystem health and science.
    o  We should move towards a sustainable environment.

Remediation and Environmental Control
    o  Try to pull in economical analysis when determining priorities for Great Lakes remediation or other management
       actions. Any prioritization that is done needs an economical assessment.
    o  There is a whole range of things [chemicals and issues] in the environment and we can't look at them all on the
       same level. We need to focus on things now that can be addressed in the future. Managers want to get the most
       "bang for their buck".
    o  We need to look at the things that need to be done  (based on the priority chemicals list), evaluate the cost
       effectiveness of different approaches, and then show the benefits of the most efficient approaches.
    o  Governments are  spending millions on restoring the ecosystem. Sixty million dollars spent on sediment
       remediation. Did it work? Governments need to go back and evaluate effectiveness.
    o  A timeline for Area of Concern (AOC) cleanup is needed.

Indicators and Endpoints

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    o  Legacy contaminants require endpoints and a timeframe for reading these endpoints.
    o  What are the human health indicators that we should be reporting on? What is it that you would like to see done
       with the existing information?
    o  Reference toxicity values are not agreed to, i.e., no consensus, but if you look at metadata, you can look at trends
       and see that things are happening.
    o  We have to worry about too high of levels [of chemicals], but also too low of levels. Does this come into play
       with endpoints?
    o  The assessment of biological health is an indicator of chemical impairments. Linkage is needed with biological
       and chemical integrity. Biological health can serve as a warning of chemical problems.
    o  When is clean, too clean?

Research Issues
    o  Research priorities need to be reviewed. Is the list in Annex 17 of the GLWQA still relevant? Where is the
       research on climate change, energy sources, etc? Through the process of defining chemical integrity, there is an
       opportunity to look at research agendas, and this could happen with the review of Annex 17. Use the messages
       that are coming out of SOLEC (i.e. chemical integrity) and consider them very seriously in the review of the
       GLWQA.
    o  There is a lot of tension when we talk about the effects on humans related to chemicals. Research is unclear, but
       what is this tension conveying to managers? Epidemiological research is needed that is designed to be conclusive,
       i.e., the right cohorts, right exposure. Ecosystem and human health work is not an epidemiological study. Health
       effects are unclear, and scientists disagree. Federal governments have a responsibility to get this research done.
    o  Where do we need research? We should not use a fear approach because it is not sustainable. If we identify
       unknowns that we are all trying to research, we may have more leverage to receive funding.
    o  Rather than referring to "environmental research," we should revise our lexicon to help focus more towards
       "sustainability."
    o  Let us caution against "Type 3" errors, i.e., we think we know what we are looking for, but we are trying to
       answer the wrong question. Are there ways to help recognize this error?
    o  We need more research on chemical mixtures (additive  or synergistic effects)
    o  More university involvement in research occurring in the Great Lakes is needed.

Monitoring
    o  Continuing long-term data sets is important. We can't put all of the money into PCB research, but it is still
       important to be able to look at PCB trends.
    o  The foundation for all of this [evaluating chemical integrity] is monitoring. It is our way of measuring our
       successes and determining where problems are.
    o  The Council of Great Lakes Research Managers is trying to develop a monitoring strategy to compete for research
       money.
    o  We can use many different approaches to additional research that is necessary, but we need to continue
       monitoring.  If all stakeholders communicate that we need to continue monitoring, then the chance of funding is
       higher.
    o  There are issues concerning archiving environmental samples
           •   We must create an archive tool for fish tissue and/or sediment NOW! There are chemicals that we  don't
               know about now that we will need to test for in the future.
           •   The 30 year old archive offish tissue in Canada is threatened.
           •   The fish archive in U.S.  is held by U.S. Geological Survey, and every year the  question is raised about
               whether money is available to keep the freezers running.
           •   We don't have a good mammal archive in Canada. We don't routinely store air, water and sediment
               extracts.

Funding
    o  In terms of funding and research, we know what we need to do, but we need to identify who is doing this
       research, i.e., we need a common research strategy and an overall funding  program.
    o  There is no [centralized] fund in the Great Lakes to which researchers can  apply for funding. There should be a
       source for basin-wide, competitive, research funding. For example, IADN is run  by a university contractor.


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    o  There are very large amounts of money being put into [Great Lakes research] that has nothing to do with
       human/public health. Very little money is put into research to identify relationships between chemicals in the
       environment and public health.
    o  Prevention is a very wise way of spending money. We have intervention programs that have been successful and
       can translate into human health improvements and remediation.  Perhaps we have not seen the human health
       improvements because of time lags.
    o  An underlying theme for these points is the lack of money. Eco-evaluation is going on internationally. You
       should care for the organisms because they need it, but money is one of the considerations that is looked at when
       determining research.
    o  If this were your last chance to get funding for the future, what would you convey to managers?
    o  What does it mean when we say that 98% of our samples have "x" in it, but it may not be something that causes
       harm. We can't use scare tactics to get research grants.
    o  There are many examples of a shortage of funding for Great Lakes research:
           •  In many cases, research and monitoring budgets are either static or declining. The continuation of the
              Canadian fish monitoring program is questionable.
           •  Why are Diporeia declining? We came up with some good ideas, but where is the money going to come
              from to determine why they are declining? Millions of dollars are needed for research.
           •  Unless you have dead bodies, there is no political motivation to get funding for research.
           •  A lot of environmental research has been  "crying wolf for a long time. Now we need to show ways of
              cost savings to get funding money.

Great Lakes Governance
    o  Taxpayers and politicians are overwhelmed and don't know what to pay attention to. We [stakeholders] may be
       passionate about some issue, but it is not always an issue for government. How do you convey this message?
    o  Build in for SOLEC participants, how the governments are dealing with issues related to chemical sources that are
       affecting the Great Lakes. There are mechanisms, but they are not well understood.
    o  Cost benefit analysis does not capture everything. We need adaptive management tools to take the cost benefit
       analysis and make it relevant in the ecosystem.
    o  We have been successful with POPs (Persistent Organic Pollutants), because we ultimately  came to a near
       consensus decision that all stakeholders needed to work towards the same goal.
    o  A multi-stakeholder approach is needed, as well as being aware of public perception.
    o  The main messages from the U.S. Great Lakes Regional Collaboration included:
           •  We need to finish the job  related to existing problems (still need to reduce legacy contaminants) and be
              aware of chemicals (grandfathered chemicals) that need to be tracked and reported
           •  We need funding. We have a big job ahead of us to reduce existing chemicals in the environment.
    o  Specific agency challenges that lie ahead include:
           •  U.S. EPA - GLNPO is sub-optimizing its monitoring program. Funding has been constant for years. To
              monitor new chemicals requires trade-offs within the existing program to stay within budget.
           •  Beginning in 2006, Environment Canada  will be charged to use the LIMNOS, which they had used for
              free in the past. No one has this cost included in their budgets.
           •  Many Great Lakes scientists within Environment Canada are retiring, which will affect not only
              Environment Canada but other Great Lakes institutions as well.

Communications and Reporting
    o  Defining Chemical Integrity
           •  We need one definition of chemical integrity in the Great Lakes basin so everyone can work towards this
              one definition. We want to make sure that there is a consistent message about what chemical integrity
              means.
    o  Improving Communications with the Public
           •  Things are getting better in the Great Lakes for the compounds that we are measuring. Where is this
              information being provided to the public? Maybe those things aren't so bad, but what other things do we
              need to be worried about? We need to do a better job of communicating the science.
           •  We need to better communicate the status of certain chemicals in the Great Lakes which isn't going to
              change quickly because of retention time. We still need to monitor those chemicals, but maybe our focus

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              should change.  How much effort do we put into tracking and reporting on these slowly-changing
              chemicals ?-
           •   How do you convey the message regarding human health issues? In the 1950s-1960s, the exposure to
              anthropogenic chemicals was higher, but now the general population is living longer and leading healthier
              lives. How do you compel the public to see that there is a health issue? Some of the chemicals that we
              talking about in the system are also the drugs that are helping people live longer.
           •   It is also important to communicate to the public about what contaminants we are NOT finding through
              our monitoring programs.
           •   We need to better report on the implications of trends of contaminants
    o  Getting press release attention from the Media
           •   When we have a success, it should be blasted out to the public. Lack of media interest should not waylay
              communicating good news to the public.
           •   Success is a tough term. SOLEC can demonstrate where there have been successes, but what newspaper
              will carry the message that a 98% reduction of loadings to the Niagara River has occurred?  Someone else
              needs to commend the government(s) for doing a good job, e.g., the Sierra Club might announce that the
              government did a good thing.
           •   You get media attention by putting key words in a press release, e.g.,  "DEAD ZONE" in Lake Erie.

SOLEC-related Comments from Workshop Participants
    o  What are the future trends? SOLEC is an opportunity to get some big issues into the arena in a multi-stakeholder
       forum. For example, what is going to  happen when we run out of oil? Will major restructuring be occurring?
       What about climate change? Forecast the trends.
    o  SOLEC should not marginalize issues.
    o  As you think about SOLEC 2006 messaging, ensure that ecosystem function assessments are included.
       Prioritization of issues such as lumps  and bumps versus Diporeia is important.
    o  SOLEC is a process to evaluate the effectiveness of the programs. Therefore you need to monitor the effects of
       the interventions. What has been spent on the Great Lakes in terms of monitoring to track improvements?  You
       may find that the money spent on monitoring is nothing compared to the money spent on remediation.
    o  For SOLEC Success Stories, try to identify local, state/provincial, and regional levels that have done something
       successful. No one has recognized what the governments have done that has benefited industry, etc.
    o  The Binational Toxics Strategy group produced a good report on how reductions are happening. Maybe we need
       to find a better way of reporting.
    o  If we believe that governments need to invest more money, then maybe SOLEC should invite keynote message-
       givers who are not government staff, but are industrial  representatives, ENGOs, etc.
    o  The public perceives that there is a strong link between the Great Lakes and human health impacts.  SOLEC could
       help focus the message around this strong perception, including research that is being conducted and the scientific
       results that are available.

Summary of Main Messages to Relay to Decision Makers in the Great Lakes Basin
    o  Monitoring: long-term monitoring is essential. It is  cheaper to monitor then remediate. Monitor ecosystem
       function, not just human health impacts.
    o  Prioritization of chemicals is needed.  We need consensus on the chemicals to monitor.
    o  Funding for research is needed.
    o  Endpoints are required for the Great Lakes indicators in order to see progress  and successes.
    o  Messaging is important. We need to better communicate messages to the public, including success stories.
    o  Sustainability is a goal that we should be aiming towards.
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A summary flow chart of the components that are involved with assessing the state of the Great Lakes.
                                                     f
                                                 ;,, ... CC OnOn-'C
Summary Thoughts (Murray Charlton)

Naturally-occurring Chemicals
    o  Nitrate and chloride loadings are out of control. Road salt is now a toxic chemical! Nitrate concentrations in
       groundwater are now an issue.
    o  Phosphorus loading estimates have not been confirmed. Non-point loads may be increasing, but around the lakes
       the monitoring data are sparse.
    o  Don't put too much effort into studying and explaining the annual variability of the "dead zone" in Lake Erie.  It
       may very well be reflecting variations in meteorological events.
    o  Mercury in the Great Lakes ecosystem needs further assessment, especially perspectives on global sources. What
       further actions can be taken?
    o  Cyanotoxins are an issue. Blue-green algae occur where total phosphorus concentrations are greater than 20
       micrograms/liter.  This concentration creates an aesthetic problem and a potential human health issue.
    o  We may need renewed attention to nearshore effects. Shoreline algae are a problem in some areas again, and
       there may be  a nearshore shunt of nutrients due to zebra and quagga mussels. We may need to lower phosphorus
       loads and pay attention to urban runoff and lawn fertilizers.
    o  We need an indicator of whether nutrients are accumulating in the basin. Data for the Lake Erie watershed show
       that phosphorus may be accumulating in the soils.

Anthropogenic Chemicals
    o  Assessing the presence, transport, fate and effects of chemicals in the Great Lakes ecosystem is a capacity issue.
       It takes people, equipment and money.
    o  A stable, credible, long-term science effort is needed, and it needs to be sustained.
    o  We have had considerable success reducing the quantity of anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin
       ecosystem. But remember that PCBs were not banned, just their production was, and the in-use stock is still a
       threat.
    o  There needs to be biological monitoring to indicate integrated effects of exposures to toxic chemicals.  For
       example, reproduction impairments can signal a chemical cause.
    o  Restricted areas such as AOCs may represent important biological production resources. EDCs and
       Pharmaceuticals, etc., may be their most destructive in these areas.
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    o  New and emerging chemicals need to be monitored. We need to assess the degree of their threats. Their sources
       may be ubiquitous. They may be less toxic than the legacy chemicals, but we need to check to see if an
       assessment about emerging chemicals of concern can be made.
    o  Regarding contaminants in fish, we need to bring into the discussion the numbers of people affected by fish
       consumption. What is the source of contamination for the majority?

General Observations
    o  Environmental models are out of date. More work is needed to understand the effects of new non-native species
       and to integrate physics, hydrodynamics and hydrology.
    o  Is there a chance for early warning monitoring? How would that be done?
    o  We need to market and articulate science needs to Great Lakes management.
    o  Don't rule out problems by thinking that they are already solved.
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APPENDIX A - WORKSHOP AGENDA
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                                    SOLEC Chemical Integrity Workshop
                                           November 29-30, 2005
                                               Windsor, ON
Tuesday November 29, 2005
9:00   Welcomes and Overview of Workshop
       Paul Bertram, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
       Douglas Dodge - StreamBenders (Workshop Master of Ceremonies)

9:15   What is chemical integrity? (Includes a summary of the Chemical Integrity workshop held at SOLEC 2004, the
       working definition of chemical integrity and the relative importance of chemical balance and integrity vs. physical
       and biological integrity with respect to maintaining ecosystem integrity)
       Brian Eadie - NOAA/GLERL

9:40   Naturally-occurring chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 1 (Includes trends in loadings of naturally
       occurring chemicals (phosphorus and nitrogen) as measured over the last thirty years in Lake Erie tributaries)
       Peter Richards - Heildelberg College.

10:05  Naturally-occurring chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 2 (Includes environmental health effects resulting
       from loadings of naturally occurring chemicals, based on expected outcomes from ecosystem models)
       Joe DePinto - LimnoTech Inc.

10:30  Break

11:00  Anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 1 (Includes relationships to chemical integrity; observed
       and potential impacts; environmental concentrations and trends; factors which impact risk (toxicity and exposure);
       sources, loadings, transport, fate with a focus on human health)
       Daniel Hryhorczuk - University of Illinois at Chicago

11:25  Anthropogenic chemicals in the Great Lakes basin - Part 2 (Includes relationships to chemical integrity; observed
       and potential impacts; environmental concentrations and trends; factors which impact risk (toxicity and exposure);
       sources, loadings, transport, fate with a focus on ecosystem health)
       Scott Brown - National Water Research Institute

11:50  Assessing chemical integrity in the Great Lakes basin (Includes a discussion on information needs defined
       through LaMPs, GLBTS, other plans; status of current monitoring and Great Lakes indicators; factoring in risk
       assessment; integrating chemical integrity with overall Great Lakes basin ecosystem assessment)
       Keith Soloman - University of Guelph

12:15  Charge to Participants
       Doug Dodge

12:30  Lunch

1:30   Breakout sessions I- Themes, Issues and Conclusions: What Do We Know?

3:00   Break

3:30   Breakout sessions II  Themes, Issues and Conclusions: What Do We Need to Learn?

5:00   Adj ourn for the day


Wednesday November 30, 2005

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8:30   Summary of Day 1
       Doug Dodge

9:00   Breakout sessions III - Key Issues and the Path Forward for Assessing Chemical Integrity

10:30  Break

11:00  Plenary Discussion - Key issues, management questions, suggested actions
       Moderated by Doug Dodge

12:15  Workshop Wrap-Up - An overall perspective of what was heard at the workshop, summary of what messages we
       need to take into SOLEC 2006
       Murray Charlton - National Water Research Institute

12:30  Workshop Adj ourns
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APPENDIX B - SOLEC 2006 DRAFT AGENDA
                                                         25

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                                      SOLEC 2006 Conference Agenda
                                            (Draft—August 2005)
Day 1—State of the Great Lakes
Morning—Plenary
9:00-9:30     Welcomes & Introductions [Responsibility of the SOLEC Steering and Executive Committees]
9:30-10:45    State of the Great Lakes [Responsibility of the SOLEC Steering and Executive Committees with input
              from LaMP Managers}
              Condition of Great Lakes human health, land use-land cover, contamination, biotic communities
              including fisheries, invasive species, aquatic habitats, coastal zones, resource utilization, and climate
              change based on indicators. To the extent possible, the presentations will report conditions at a Lake level
              as well as convey the overall basinwide status.
10:45-11:15   Break
11:15-12:30   Management implications for the Lakes, the St. Clair-Detroit ecosystem, and the  St. Lawrence River
              [Responsibility of the LaMP Managers in coordination with the SOLEC Executive Committee}
              Lake by Lake management implications resulting from the state of the Great Lakes based on the condition
              reports and supplemental information.
12:30-2:00    Lunch
              12:30-2:00      Networking - for all attendees
              1:30-2:00       Introduction to Indicators session - for all attendees [Responsibility of the SOLEC
                             Steering and Executive Committees}

Afternoon—Breakout Sessions
2:00-4:30     Lake by Lake sessions to discuss the next steps needed to address condition and management
              implications. [Responsibility of the LaMP Managers with assistance from the SOLEC Executive
              Committee}

Evening—Dinner/Reception
6:00-8:30     Success Story presentations will take place from  8:00-8:30, after the dinner. [Responsibility of the SOLEC
              Steering and Executive Committees}

Day 2—Chemical Integrity

Morning—Plenary
9:00-9:15     Highlights from Day 1 [Responsibility of the SOLEC Steering and Executive Committees}
9:15-9:30     Chemical Integrity overview. [Responsibility of the SOLEC Steering and Executive Committees with input
              from the Chemical Integrity Working Group and the LaMP Managers}

The following six presentations [Responsibility of the Chemical Integrity Working Group with assistance from the SOLEC
              Executive Committee} will attempt to include Lake-specific examples:
9:30-9:50     TOXICS  Impacts and Issues
9:50-10:10    TOXICS - Sources,  Loads and Transport
10:10-10:30   TOXICS - Management Response/Actions and Environmental Changes
10:30-11:00   Break
11:00-11:20   NON-TOXICS - Impacts and Issues
11:20-11:40   NON-TOXICS - Sources, Loads and Transport
11:40-12:00   NON-TOXICS - Management Response/Actions and Environmental  Changes
12:00-1:30    Lunch
              1:00-1:30       Keynote address—invited speaker

Afternoon—Chemical Integrity Workshops
1:30-4:30     Workshops will include additional presentations and discussions of specific issues including: municipal
              sector issues (pesticides, pharmaceuticals, groundwater contamination, ecological footprint, and cycling


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              of contaminants among others (topics will be determined by the experts attending the November 2005
              workshop). [Responsibility of the Chemical Integrity Working Group}

Day 3—Cross-Cutting Issues

9:00-12:00    Ideas include: beaches, groundwater, forestry, brownfields, eco-footprint, climate change, GLWQA,
              societal values, land use/zoning. Sessions will be determined by the SOLEC Steering Committee.
              [Responsibility of the SOLEC Steering and Executive Committees}

12:00         Adjourn
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APPENDIX C - WORKSHOP ATTENDEES
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Chemical Integrity Workshop Attendees
NAME
Jackie Adams
Doug Alley
Bill Alsop
Frank Anscombe
Paul Bertram
Giselle Bouchard
Scott Brown
George Bullerjahn
Murray Charlton
Stacey Cherwaty
Jan Ciborowski
David Culver
Sarah Da Silva
Marcia Damato
Nicole Davidson
Joe DePinto
Jon Dettling
Miriam Diamond
Doug Dodge
Jack Dutra
Brian Eadie
David Flakne
Diana Graham
Beth Hinchey-Malloy
Paul Horvatin
Daniel Hryhorczuk
Matt Hudson
Melissa Hulting
Allan Jones
Rimi Kalinauskas
Bruce Kirschner
Paul Klawunn
Gail Krantzberg
Edwina Lopes
Jianmin Ma
John Marsden
Gerald Matisoff
Ann McConnell
Michael McKay
Derek Muir
Beth Murphy
Melanie Neilson
Todd Nettesheim
Jerry Niemi
Carolyn O'Neill
Dan O'Riordan
AFFILIATION
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
International Joint Commission
AMEC Earth and Environmental Consulting
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
Environment Canada
National Water Research Institute
Boiling Green University
Environment Canada
Environment Canada
University of Windsor
Ohio State University
Environment Canada
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
Environment Canada
LimnoTech Inc.
Great Lakes Commission
University of Toronto
Streambenders
Industry Task Force
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Syngenta Crop Protection
Contractor to Syngenta Crop Protection
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
University of Illinois at Chicago - School of Public Health
Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
Canadian Chlorine Coordinating Committee
Environment Canada
International Joint Commission
Environment Canada
McMaster University
Environment Canada
Meteorological Service Canada
Environment Canada
Case Western Reserve
Proctor & Gamble Canada
Bowling Green State University
Environment Canada
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
Environment Canada
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
National Regulatory Research Institute
Environment Canada
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
                                                                   31

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NAME
Dale Phenicie
Lou Pocalujka
Peter Richards
David Rockwell
Karen Rodriguez
Dan Salvito
Hans Sanderson
Barbara Scudder
Ted Smith
Keith Solomon
Dee Ann Staats
Nancy Stadler-Salt
Jay Unwin
Srinivasan Venkatesh
Donald Versteeg
Jennifer Vincent
Alan Waffle
AFFILIATION
Council of Great Lakes Industries
Consumers Energy
Heidelberg College
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
Research Institute for Fragrance Materials
The Soap and Detergent Association
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - GLNPO
University of Guelph
Crop Life America
Environment Canada
National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc.
Environment Canada
Proctor & Gamble U.S.
Environment Canada
Environment Canada
32

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        APPENDIX D - PLENARY PRESENTATIONS
      (Note:  Plenary Presentations are also available online at:
http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/solec/solec 2006/presentations/index.html)
                                                                                    33

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34

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   'Chemical  Integrity' of the
   Great  Lakes?
                Brian J. Eadie
                NOAA - GLERL
 Summary of the 2004  Chemical

 Integrity Workshop in  Toronto

Chemical Integrity is the capacity to support and maintain a
balanced, integrated and adaptive biological system having
the full range of elements and processes expected in a
region's natural habitat.

• Is Chemical Integrity the capacity to maintain Biological
Integrity?

* What about the capacity to maintain the sustainability of
human uses of the habitat?
 What Items should be included in
 Chemical Integrity?

  The current suite of chemicals of concern are
  declining
  Toxicology information is needed, not just
  concentrations
- Very weak information on the toxicology of mixtures
  Focus on assessment not monitoring
  How well do we find new chemicals of potential
  concern ?
~ Perturbations (e.g.,Invasives, Climate, Land use)
                                                              What Items should be included in Chemical Integrity?
   * Nature of the chemical

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What Chemicals are of Concern — cont.
   • Taste/Odor
   • HABs (e.g., microcystins)
  Pharmaceuticals
  Road Salt
  Caffeine / other WWTP discharges
  Biohazards (viruses)
  Medical wastes
    Seasonal HABs
High concentrations of toxins
       microcystin > l(jg/l

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                                                                               Summarv - Issues relating to Chemical Inte^ritv
                                                                               PBTs have declined, but some still result in restrictions
                                                                                      P increasing in the central t
                                                                                      N is increasing everywhere
                                                                               Pharmaceuticals — low levels detected — Impacts ?
                                                                               Impact of Climate Change
                                                                               Aging infrastructure
                                                                                   Sewage and water treatment facilities
                                                                                   Recruitment and retention of younger Great L;
Summarv - Issues relating to Chemical Integrity - contuied
     Areas of Concern
     Constituent loads
           Local (Tributary P, pharmaceuticals)
           Regional (Combustion products)
           Global (Hg, DDT)
     Processes  —"  Ecosystem Models
     Improving Risk Assessment Tools
     Algorithm improvements for satellite imagery
     Development of automated obsei

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 Trends in Water Quality in Lake
    Erie Tributaries,  1975-2004
                R. Peter Richards
      National Center for Water Quality Research
               Heidelberg College
               Tiffin, Ohio  44883

                                    November :
                                                              Outline
       "death" and rehabilitation of Lake Erie
«>Trends in nutrient loads
^Causes?
                                                              What's wrong with Lake Erie?
                                                               Lampreys
                                                               Alewives
                                                               Cladophora
                                                               Overfishing
                                                               •Blue Pike
                                                               •Walleye
                                     ated Harbors
                                     !
                               tienols
                              •Iron and other metals
                              •PAHs
                              PCBs

                 Contaminated Open Lake and Fish
                 • Mercury
                 •PCBs        No more mayflies..
                 • DDT, DDE
Strategy for reducing hypoxia

/&»Reduce phosphorus
   • Sewage Treatment Plant upgrades
   • Phosphorus detergent ban
   • Non-point source programs, especially aimed at
    agriculture
     • Nutrient management
     • Reduced tillage
Tributary Loading Studies

fy>Army Corps Wastewater Management Study
•^Heidelberg Tributary Sampling Program
   • Major Lake Erie Tribs
     •  Sandusky 1974
     •  Maumee 1975
     •  Cuyahoga 1982
     •  Raisin 1982
     •  Grand 1986
   • Autosamplers at "integrator" stations, 3 samples/day
   . USDA-LEASEQ Trend Analysis 1975-1995 (Mau, Sand)
   . USDA-CEAP Trend Analysis 1975-2004

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Trends in Water Quality, 1975-1995
Percent
Change
               TP     DRP    NO3

               **p<0.01  ***p<0.001
Trends in phosphorus mass balance
    ... substantial decrease, but always input>output
                                                                                            : Total input

                                                                                            Total output
Trends in soil fertility
      ... nearly doubled between 1975 and 1995
             Soil Test Phosphorus (mg kg-1)
 LEASEQ Conclusions

 «^>Water quality trends are toward improved
   conditions (except nitrate)
 •^Water quality trends result from intentional
   changes in use of the land
 <^»A major victory for environmental science
   and management
 Trends 1995-2004:

 «>How do trends in the last 10 years compare
   with trends in the previous 20 years?
 «>Also extend analysis to Cuyahoga and
   Grand
  Station Locations

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Trends in Water Quality, 1975-2004

^Methods: Formal Analysis
  • Adjust concentrations for flow effects, using LOWESS
    smoother
  • Analyze trend in flow-corrected, log-transformed
    concentrations using ANCOV A-based two slope model
  . log(c)=fn[log(q), t, sin(2nt), cos(2nt), PrePost, PrePost*t]
  • Results expressed as % change over 10 years
fy°Today: LOWESS smooths of unmodified daily flows
  and daily loads (bin width 20%)
«*LOWESS: LOcally WEighted Scatterplot Smoother
I. Loads vs. Concentrations, Sandusky
      • Illustrate similarities/differences in trends for
       loads as opposed to concentrations
      • Illustrate magnitude of trends relative to day-to-
       day fluctuations
      • Avoid trying to show you 100+ different trend
       graphs!
 Discharge
  Suspended Sediment
 Total Phosphorus
                               Conceni:..
  Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus
                                                                                          Concern i.

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                                                         Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen
                                                          Patterns, Loads vs. Concentrations

                                                          <°&«Loads and concentrations for a given parameter
                                                           tend to have similar trends
                                                          •^But there can be important differences as well
                                                          •^SS and TP load trends track flow strongly, others
                                                           less so or not at all
                                                          •^"Trends reflect "something real" and important,
                                                           but...
                                                          ^"Generally the 30-year trends are small compared to
                                                           the short-term variability, especially for loads
                                                          4^(What does this imply for management?)
II.  Loads, parameter by parameter
«>Flow, SS, nutrients, derivative parameters
f§»°LOWESS values are essentially locally
  weighted averages, tend to be intermediate
  between the median and the mean
Precipitation (cm/month)
                                                                     Northwest Ohio
                                                                     Maumee Flow

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Discharge (cubic feet/second)
            CuyahogJ
SS Load (metric tons/day)
                                               \

                                                                      \
TP Load (metric tons/day)
DRP Load (metric tons/day)
                                               \
                                                        Cuyahoga
Nitrate Load (metric tons/day)
            Cuyahoga

TKN Load (metric tons/day)
                                                        Cuyahoga

                                                                           Sandusky

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Chloride Load (metric tons/day)
                            'PP'VSS ratio (g/kg)     (-PP-TP-DRP)
                                                                 Cuyahoga
DRP/TP (%
  \
                           TN/TP ratio
(Redfield Ratio ~ 7)
                                                         /\   sadatt

                                                        /  \/
NO3/DRP ratio
             Cuyahoga
(Redfield Ratio ~ 7)
                                   Sandusky
                                      i
                            Summary

                            •^General improvements (except nitrate)
                              during 1975-1995, most params/most rivers
                            «*• Worsening in TP, DRP, TKN since then;
                              inflection point between 1993 and 2000
                            •^Continued improvement in Maumee SS but
                              not in other rivers
                            <>Mixed results for NO3

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Summary

<>PP/SS ratio (sediment "richness")
  improving recently, but perhaps for bad
  reasons
«>Recent increases in %P that is dissolved
^•TN/TP and NO3/DRP decreasing or no
  longer increasing, but ratios are appropriate
  for phosphorus limitation
Impacts?
<%»Renewed problems in Lake Erie
  • Increased in-lake phosphorus concentrations
  • Hypoxia in summer in Central Basin
  • Microcystis and other cyanobacteria
^•Tributary inputs are not the sole cause, but are
  likely contributors to these problems
Causes?

fy*Weather? More important for loads than cones?
•^Population growth and exurbanization?
<^»No-till concentrates nutrients at surface?
^Concentrated animal agriculture?
«> Winter spreading of manures?
^Global climate change?
«^»Whew! It could be all of them...
                                                        THE END

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Chemical Integrity in the Great Lakes
Pre-SOLEC workshop
Windsor, ON - November 29-30, 2005
 Chemical Integrity of
rall}fopjccurring Substances
 Jn, tjie Great Lakes
-Jft.-  H^

     Joseph V. DePinto
          ic-Tech, Inc.
                                                         Acknowledgements
                                                                      USE PA - Great Lakes National Program Office
                                                                       - David Rockwell, other staff
                                                                      Environment Canada - NWRI
                                                                       - Murray Charlton
                                                                      NOAA-GLERL
                                                                       - Dave Schwab and Dmitry Beletsky
                                                                      UW-Green Bay
                                                                       - Dave Dolan
                                                                      SUNY - CESF
                                                                       - Greg Boyer, MERHAB-LGL PI
                                                                      New York Sea Grant
                                                                       - Helen Domske, NYSG specialist
   Naturally-occurring Substances
   Chemical Integrity Analysis Logic
   How to manage phosphorus in a changed
   Great Lakes ecosystem?
   Are there undesirable trends in general
   water chemistry?
   What bio-toxins should we worry about?
                                                            Nutrients and eutrophication
                                                            - Macro-nutrients (P, N, Si)
                                                            - Micro-nutrients (Fe, Zn, etc.)
                                                            - Chlorophyll a
                                                            • Dissolved oxygen
                                                            Metals (Pb, Cd, Hg, etc.)
                                                            General water chemistry
                                                            - Major ions/salinity/hardness
                                                            - pH - Alkalinity - DIG system
                                                            Taste/odor compounds (MIB, geosmin)
                                                            Biota-produced toxins
                                                            - Cyanotoxins
                                                            - Botulinum toxins
 Sources of Naturally-occurring Substances
   Naturally occur in earth's crust
    - Leached and eroded from soil
   Formed by natural chemical and biochemical
   reactions in soil, water, sediments
   Humans can accelerate cycling and entry into
   the Great Lakes
    - Mining and application of road salt
    - Mining and manufacturing processes
    - Application of fertilizers
    - Creation of conditions that accelerate natural
     chemical and biochemical reactions
                                                         What is Chemical Integrity?
                                                            Chemical Integrity of the Great Lakes
                                                            - The chemical composition of a lake ecosystem that
                                                             provides all of the chemical needs for that system to
                                                             maintain overall ecosystem integrity.
                                                            • Chemical concentrations are bounded such that there
                                                             is not too much or too little relative to other
                                                             chemicals and relative to the ecosystem's needs for
                                                             maintaining its integrity.
                                                            Chemical integrity must be understood and
                                                            evaluated in terms of sources, loadings.
                                                            transport, fate, and ecological effects (humans
                                                            are part of the ecosystem).

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 What is Ecosystem Integrity?
• An aquatic ecosystem is judged to have integrity when its
  physical, chemical, and biological structure is such that it is
  functioning as a complete and healthy ecosystem.
• "Complete" and "healthy" can only be determined in terms
  of indicators of that ecosystem's performance relative to a
  performance goal
• Measures of ecosystem performance
   - Biologically diverse/complexity
   - Evolving toward a more stable system
   - Resilience/Homeostasis
      • resistance to irreversible change in response to external perturbations
       (stressors)
   Multiple
   Stressors
 Ecosystem
Structure and
  Function
 Multiple
Responses
                  Feed backs/Horn eostasis
                                                    Programs and Policy
                                                    to Ameliorate Stress
 Indicators of Ecosystem Performance
  Ecosystem Indicator: A measurable feature, or one
  derivable from measurements, which singly or in
  combination provides managerially and
  scientifically useful evidence of ecosystem
  integrity, or reliable evidence of progress toward
  one or more ecosystem objective.
   - Indicator can be a physical, chemical, or biological
    measurement that can be related in a meaningful and
    understandable way to ecosystem performance.
   - Indicator can be a stressor, a process, or a system state
    variable
  Ecosystem models are a tool for relating indicators
  to ecosystem performance.
                                                                  Indicator
                                                                    Type
                                                       Model for Measuring and Understanding
                                                                  Ecosystem Health

                                                                      \Great Lakes Basin     /
                                                                          Ecosystem    /
                                                                       Ecosystem Int
                                                                       (Desired Out'
                                             Processes
                                             and State
                                                            Physical
                                                            Integrity
                                                                       Biological
                                                                       Integrity
 Nutrients and Eutrophication
    Phosphorus is limiting nutrient and is
    controlled in  Great Lakes
    Nitrogen (as N/P ratio) can impact algal
    speciation
    Phosphorus management in 1970's and '80s
    was based on chlorophyll a targets
     - Very successful outcome
    Now other factors raised as issues in P control
     - Fish production
     - Invasive species impacts
     - Still seeing water quality impacts in Lake Erie -
      hypolimnion DO

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       Environment Canada TP Data for Lake Erie
       (Charlton, 2005)
                                                1B4B 2MO if Pi
                       Phosphorus, a key nutrient tor algae growth
                          .3
           1670 1974 1*BO IdtS 19*0 1»(i 2000 309S     1*70 117* 1*10 IMS 1HO IMS IOW 3
                                                                                      Nitrogen nutrient not controlled much in sewage, also in fertilizer
       DiToro, et al.  Lake Erie Eutrophication
       Model (1976)
                                                                       Segmentation for
                                                                       1976 Lake Erie
                                                                       Model
 T       ~f                 f
(nL^i              TrrAiwJr^'      lAwpr         I*i
  mwjus             'J!°"-'-iA               mtU
   	-»M»
                         Lake Erie
                   Total Phosphorus Loadings
i  -
                                                                       Lake Erie Model
                                                                       Post-audit (Chi a)
                                                                       (DiToro, etal. 1987)
                                            •Annual Total Phosphoms Loac
                                            • DirectMunicipal Loads
                                            -TP Target Load
                                                                                                     -  -  •••
      _  '• .AT :' +.  y' ^  ^r' j/^y »y>-y'

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   Lake Erie in vummcr strati fkalion
   June
                           -v_fii
                               •r  The area of the
                                   hypotimnion or "dead
                                   zone" changes with
                                   stratification depth
                                   and date.
                         t.piiimaiun    »«n»
      xmocfide            _^--
                   llvpolunnion      \  '
           LAKE ERIE LONGfTUDWAL CROSS SECTION

                                    (from Charlton 2005)
Lake Erie Central Basin
Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations
1993


1997


1998


1999


2000


2001
   O

o  o

o o
"  ,0

   o


  I

o  o
             o o
             O0O
             0°0
             0 O
                     o o
                   0%§o|
    Early June  Late June  Mid-July   Early Aug.

    O > 6 mg/l  ^ 4-6 mg/l Q 2-4 mg/l  Q 1-2 mg/l
                                           Mid-Sept.

                                      0-1 mg /I O No Data
HVOD rates for the Central Basin from 1991
 to 2001 corrected for temperature, vertical
    mixing and hypolimnion thickness.
                                                                                   y = -52 + 0.0276X R= 0.203 p = 0.55
     1990  1991  1992  1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998 2000 2001 2002

                       Year
       Hypothesis
       4There is always zebra mussels
       4 Due to a de-coupling of the
         phosphorus-chlorophyll a relationship
         in  Lake Erie caused by the Dreissena
         invasion, the net loss rate of total
         phosphorus from the water column
         (i.e., net apparent phosphorus
         deposition rate to sediments) has
         decreased.
   Model Sensitivity to Net Vs (WB)
                Lake Erie - Western Basin
                    (Sensitivity to Vs)
      1975    1980     1985     1990    1995    2000
                                                                                        ise Loads & Vs=10.1 m/y	+10% Vs
                                                                                       •25%Vs         	25%Vs

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Model Sensitivity to Net Vs (CB)
              Lake Erie - Central Basin
                   (sensitivity to Vs)
                                               2005
 GLNPO Spring TP     	Base Loads &Vs=33.6 mfy	+10% Vs
 -10% Vs          	+25%Vs          	25%Vs
Model Sensitivity to Net Vs (EB)
            Lake Erie - Eastern Basin
                    (sensitivity to Vs)
                                                                                                           f\
                                                                                1980    1985
                                                                                               1990

                                                                                               Year
                                                                                                      1995     2000
                                                                                                                     2005
 • GLNPO Spring TP     	Base Loads & Vs=36.7 m/y	+10%Vs
   -10% Vs          	+25%Vs           	25%Vs
                                                                      Nutrient Control versus Sport Fishing -
                                                                      Lake Ontario
                                                                  Nutrient
                                                                    Load
                                                                 Reduction
                 rSeverei
                 CWinterJ
                                                                             Algal
                                                                             Growth
                                                                             Decline
                                                                                                    Increased
                                                                                                    Predation
                                                                 Reduced
                                                               Eutrophication
                                                                  Effects
                                                                                         Reduced
                                                                                         Prey Fish
                                                                                        Production
                                        Increased
                                        Salmonid
                                         Stocking
                                                                                       Reduced
                                                                                       Sport Fish
                                                                                       Size and
                                                                                       Biomass

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Conceptual Model of Simplified Lake
Ontario Ecosystem Model
                                                                              2.000.000  4.000.000  6.000.000  8.000.000 10.000.000 12.000,000

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     Cyanotoxins in the Lower Great Lakes
        MERHAB-LGL Study
        - PI: Greg Boyer, SUNY-ESF
        Produced by cyanobacteria
        (blue-green algae)
        Four primary classes of
        toxin compounds
        - Microcystin
        - Anatoxin-a
        - PSP toxins
        - Cynlindospermopsin
        Neurotoxicity and
        hepatotoxicity in
        - Fuana coming in contact
         with blooms
        - Can exceed WHO limits in
         drinking water intakes
                                    MERHAB-LGL
    Cyanobacterial blooms are becoming
    commonplace in Lake Erie.
Lake Erie, August 23, '04
                                        % toxic     Highest
                                        >0.1 ppb    value, ppb
  August 2003
 Classic Microcystis blooms

 14 - 20 ug L
       t — \ 0.5 - 0.7 ug L"1 Microcystin-LR eqv.

Microcystis present but mcyA suggests that microcystin
produced by Planktothrix in Sandusky Harbor! Rinta.Kanto etai
             e-Jrn ' cw* ' iror* ' <
      Toxic Blooms in Lake Ontario
             (not as severe as in Lake Erie)
                                                                       Cruise date    # sta   Toxin ? (%)   Highest values    N
    2000 (Aug)
                                                                        (late July)
                                                                        (late June)
                                                                       (July, August)
0%     MC: < 0.02 ng H
Eastern
 end
                       2% (MC)   MC:  0.15 ^g M
                       4% (ATX)   ATX: 0.05 ^g I'1
                  7     0% (MC)   MC:  0.007 ^g I'1
                      70% (ATX)   ATX: 0.006 ^g H
                 80   >25% (MC)  MC:  1.06 ^g I'1
                 63   0.5% (ATX)  ATX: 0.01 ^g H
                                                                                                                  Whole lake
                                                                                                                   Henderson
                                                                                                                     Bay
                                                                                                                  Whole lake
                                                                                                                   + Eastern
      2004       81    17% (MC)   MC:0.85^g|-1   Whole lake
    (Aug-Sept)           16% (ATX)   ATX: 0.02 ug H
     Clostridium botulinum
        Bacterium that produces botulism toxin
        Anaerobic bacterium- it grows in the absence
        of oxygen
        Forms endospores- dormant structures that
        remain viable for years
        The endospores quite resistant to temperature
        extremes and drying.
       Where are the bacteria found?
         Spores of both type C and type E Botulism are naturally
         found in anaerobic habitats:
             Soils
             Aquatic Sediments
             Intestinal tracts of live, healthy animals


         In the absence of oxygen, with a suitable nutrient
         source, and under favorable temperatures and pH,
         spores can  germinate and vegetative growth of bacterial
         cells can occur. (Brand, et. al 1988).


         Botulism toxin is only produced during vegetative
         growth, not when the bacterium is in its spore stage.

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                                                                                 Is the outbreak caused by a new strain?
                                                                                 Do algae blooms (Cladophora) play a role?
                                                                                 Do Dreissenids play a role?
                                                                                 Why have fish die-offs decreased since 2003?
                                                                                 Is the decrease related to goby populations?
Botulism Outbreaks in Lower Lakes
                                    Lake Ontario
• 1999-2002- Large
Outbreaks
• Confined primarily to
Eastern Basin
• Smaller Outbreak in 2003

• Minimal reports of fish
mortality in 2004, but a
larger die off of birds in
November and December
during migrations.
• Nov 3-15 (ongoing)
approximately 200
Common Loons found at
Long Point National
Wildlife Area, Ontario.

• 2003 - First small recorded
outbreaks
• Outbreaks first confined
primarily to Western Basin -
some fish and birds
• 2004 - Outbreaks continued,

• September 2004 - central
portion of Lake Ontario, over
500 double-crested cormorants
collected, tests were positive
• October 2004 - several
hundred dead long- tailed
ducks along the
Hamilton/Burlington beaches
• Summer 2005 - over 1,400
double-crested cormorants
collected on the islands along
the Central-Eastern shore in
Ontario.
Lessons
    lanaging chemical integrity
     Physical and biological integrity matter
    - Scale matters
   Cannot understand chemical integrity in an ecological
   vacuum
    - Ecosystems have many feedback mechanisms that provide
     resilience; these must be understood in order to define
     bounds of chemical integrity
   Ecological integrity cannot be achieved by managing
   single issues  independently of understanding
   interactions with other management issues
   Require coordinated modeling, monitoring, and research
   programs
   If we have learned anything over the last 30 years, it is
   that we need a Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem Agreement

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     Anthropogenic Chemicals in the Great
       Lakes Basin: Human Health Effects
              Daniel Hryhorczuk, MD, MPH
                                                                 Persistent Toxic Substances

                                                                 in the Great Lakes Basin


                                                                 •  Organochlorine compounds
                                                                    - PCBs
                                                                    - Hexachlorobenzene
                                                                    - DDT and metabolites
                                                                    - Dioxins and dibenzofurans
                                                                    - Mirex
                                                                    - Dieldrin
                                                                    - Toxaphene
Persistent Toxic Substances
in the Great Lakes Basin


• Heavy metals
   - Alkylated lead
   - Methylmercury

• Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

• Emerging contaminants
   - Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)
                                                                  Key Findings
                                                                    Elevated body burdens of contaminants in persons who
                                                                    consume large amounts of Great Lakes fish
                                                                    Developmental deficits and neurologic problems in
                                                                    children of some fish-consuming parents
                                                                    Endocrine dysfunction among fish eaters
                                                                    Disturbances in reproductive parameters
At Risk Populations from
Contaminated Fish Consumption


• Native Americans and other
  indigenous peoples
• Sports anglers
• Subsistence fisherman
• Pregnant women, fetuses
• Nursing infants
                                                                 Human Health Studies:
                                                                 Fish consumption vs contaminant levels
                                                                    Michigan Sport Fisherman Study (Humphrey, 1976, 1983,
                                                                    1988; Tee et al, 2003)
                                                                    - First demonstration of association between consumption of
                                                                      contaminated Great Lakes sport fish and serum levels of PCBs
                                                                    - Persons who annually consumed >_ 24 Ibs of fish had serum
                                                                      PCB levels 4x higher than controls
                                                                    - Monotonic decline in serum PCB levels among all participants
                                                                      from mean of 24ppbin 1980 to 12 ppb in 1994 paralleled by
                                                                      and 83% decrease in fish consumption
                                                                    Wisconsin Fish Eater Study (Fiore et al, 1989)
                                                                    - Serum levels of PCBs and DDE statistically correlated with
                                                                      amount of Great Lakes fish consumed

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                                       I
Human Health Studies:
Fish consumption vs contaminant levels
  Great Lakes fish eaters, age 50 years and older (Schantz
  etal, 1996)
   - Those who consumed >_ 24 Ibs of sport fish for more than 15
     years had higher levels of RGBs and 2x higher levels of DDE
     and mercury
  Great Lakes Consortium  fish eaters (Turyk et al, 2005)
   - Blood samples from fish eaters obtained in 1993-95
   - Noncoplanar RGBs higher in fish eaters than in referent
     population, associated with fish consumption, and varied by
     lake
Human Health  Studies:
Children's growth and development
                                                                        Michigan Maternal and Infant Study (Fein et al 1983,
                                                                        1984; Jacobson et al, 1983, 1984, 1988)
                                                                         - Intrauterine exposures to diet of contaminated Lake Michigan
                                                                           sport fish (RGBs) associated with:
                                                                            • Decreases in infants birth weight
                                                                            • Decreases in gestational age
                                                                            • Decreases in head circumference
                                                                            • Infants exhibited neurodevelopmental and behavioral
                                                                             deficits on tests of visual recognition and memory at 7
                                                                             months and 4 years of age
                                                                            • Poorer short- and long-term memory and lower IQ scores at
                                                                             11  years of age
Human Health Studies:
Children's growth and development
   Newborns of Great Lakes fish eaters (Lonky et al, 1996)
   - Neurobehavioral deficits at 12-24 hours and 25-48 hours after
     birth from mothers who consumed on average 2.3 fish meals
     per month
   New York State Angler Cohort Study (Buck et al, 2003)
   - Absence of an adverse relation between Lake Ontario fish
     consumption and reduced birth size as measured by weight,
     length and head circumference
   Michigan  Anglers Study (Karmaus and Zhu, 2004)
   - Maternal PCS concentration >_ 25 mcg/l associated with
     reduced birth weight of offsrping
                                                                      Human Health Effects:
                                                                      Endocrine disruption
                                                                        New York State Angler Cohort Study (Bloom M et al,
                                                                        2003)
                                                                         - Hexachlorobenzene inversely associated with T4
                                                                        Great Lakes Consortium fish eaters study (Persky et al,
                                                                        2001)
                                                                         - Serum PCS levels and fish consumption inversely associated
                                                                          with T4 and Free thyroxine index in women and T4 in men
                                                                         - Among men, there were significant inverse associations of both
                                                                          PCS and fish consumption with sex hormone-binding globulin
                                                                          (SHBG)-bound testosterone, but no association with SHBG or
                                                                          free testosterone
Human Health Studies:
Reproductive health
   New York State Angler Cohort Study (Mendola et al, 1997;
   Buck et al, 2000)
   - Consuming more than one fish meal per month associated with
     reduction in menstrual cycle length in women
   - Maternal consumption of fish for 3-6 years associated with
     reduced fecundability
                                                                      Human Health Studies
                                                                      Community Health Profile of Windsor
                                                                        Windsor AOC ranked among the highest of 17 AOCs on
                                                                        Canadian side of the Great Lakes for selected health end
                                                                        points potentially related to pollution
                                                                        Health outcomes data
                                                                         - Mortality
                                                                         - Hospitalizations
                                                                         - Congenital malformations
                                                                        Local industrial sources and transboundary air and water
                                                                        pollution from Detroit

                                                                                     Gilbertson and Brophy, EHP 109:827,2001

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                                      I
Human  Health Studies
Fish consumption and breast cancer risk
   Wisconsin population-based case control study
   Relative risk for recently consumed sport-caught fish
    - Overall: 1 (0.86-1.17)
    - Postmenopausal: 0.78 (0.57-1.07)
    - Premenopausal: 1.70 (1.16-2.50)
   Frequency of and location of consumption not associated
   with breast cancer risk
                   McElroy et al. EHP 112:156, 2004
Emerging Pollutants
                                                                     While concentrations of most
                                                                     organochlorines in fish in the
                                                                     Great Lakes declined as first
                                                                     order decay from 1983-1999,
                                                                     the concentration of
                                                                     polybrominated diphenyl
                                                                     ethers (PBDEs) increased
                                                                     exponentially (Chernyak et al,
                                                                     2005)
                                                                     PBDEs used as flame
                                                                     retardants
                                                                     Can bioconcentrate and
                                                                     bioaccumulate
 Emerging Pollutants
   Toxicologic effects of PBDEs
    - Thyroid hormone imbalance (reduction in T4)
    - Developmental neurotoxicity
    - Estrogen disrupters
    — Increased liver tumors
                                                                   Great Lakes Centers
                                                                   Environmental Profile of PCBs
                                                                      Joyce Foundation
                                                                      Canadian Environmental Law Foundation and GLC
                                                                      www.uic.edu/sph/glakes
Great Lakes Centers
Environmental Profile of PCBs
                      Environmental Profile of
                      PCBs in the Great Lakes

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     Wildlife and Fish  Health
  Effects in Canadian AOCs
 Scott Brown, National Water Research Institute
                                                                                        Joanne Parrott, Mark
                                                                   Hewitt, Derek Mulr
                                                                                  National Water Research Institute
                                                                   Alice Dam, Scott Painter, Me/en/e Nellson, John Stmger
                                                                   KimFerme, Pamela Martin, Canadian Wildlife Service,
                                                                   Environment Canada-Ontario Region
                                                                   Glen Fox, LiardSnutt, C. Hebert, Canadian Wildlife
                                                                   Service, National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment
                                                                   Canada
Great Lakes Areas of Concern
In 1987, the International Joint Commission
designated 43 areas of concern in the Great
Lakes Basin
To qualify as an AOC, the area contained
one or more beneficial use impairment
                                                                  Beneficial Use Impairments
                                                                    restrictions on fish and wildlife consumption
                                                                    degradation offish and wildlife populations
                                                                    bird or animal deformities or reproduction problems
restrictions on dredging acti
drinking water restric
beach closings
degradation of aesthetics
added costs to agriculture or industry
                                                                    loss offish and wildlife habitat
        Areas of Concern in the Great Lakes
             St. Lawronco Rivor Basin

           » Ci»g< Itm
                      .
       *-•  ,
       * '•  r'&ssL
          .   v ......  •  •
       .. _  m  «J3, tSSSZ
              "
                                           *?--
                                           • us.*
                                             .
                                           A .
                   In Fish-Eating Predators
                                                                                     In the 1960s, Great Lakes fish wer
                                                                                     implicated in a large number of die
                                                                                     related reproductive failures in
                                                                                     ranch mink

                                                                                     LOEL for mink kit survival
                                                                                     associated with maternal liver
                                                                                     PCBs=2.2 mg/kg
Past Effects
                 Reproduction in shore-line nesting
                 eagles and cormorants failed
                                                                                     Egg-shell thinning and hatching
                                                                                     failures associated with DDT/DDE
                 Congenital malformations/GLEMEDs in
                 fish-eating birds was associated with
                 exposure to persistent organic
                 contaminants such as dioxins and RGBs

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                                                                   A combination of rectors led to the decline of lake trout such
                                                                   that by 1960 they were extirpated from the Great Lakes; sea
                                                                   lamprey, overexploltatlon, changes In forage base, pollution
                                                                   From mid SO'ata mid 70'a, Blue-Sac from exposure to TCDD-
                                                                   Ilke contaminants was sufficient account for 100% offspring
                                                                   mortality In Lake Ontario (Cook et al. 2003)
 Effects of POPs on wildlife
 have been recognized and
I there has been action
 taken to reduce exposure
                     Good NEWS!!!

        No Blue-Sac, Return of Fish-Eating Bird
                       Populations
                                                                      Concerns Leading to Recent
                                                                                   Studies
                                                                   Health Canada Reports released in 2000
                                                                   suggest some human health outcomes
                                                                   were more prevalent in certain AOCs

                                                                   What, if any, are the present Wildlife and
                                                                   Fish Health Effects in AOCs?
                                                                   -  Last assessment summarizing known spatial
                                                                      and temporal trends in environmental
                                                                      contaminants and associated effects in fish
                                                                      & wildlife in 1991 Toxic Chemicals in the
                                                                      Great Lakes and Associated Effects"
| Fish and Wildlife Health Effects and Exposure Study |

  | Objectives
      Update understanding of the state offish and
      wildlife health
      Determine if effects are similar to those in human
      population
      Measure current concentrations of chemicals (old
      and new) in aquatic environment and tissues that
      could be associated with heath outcomes

  | Phase I (2001-2005)
      Canadian AOCs in the lower Great Lakes
      Benthic and pelagic fish, Snapping  Turtles, Herring
      Gulls and mink
                                                                                   Laboratory analyses:
                                                                                     • histology
                                                                                     • enzyme activity
                                                                                     • estrogenicity assays
                                                                                     • immunotoxicity
                                                                                     • hormone function
                                                                                    Field assessments:
                                                                                     • sex ratios
                                                                                     • embryonic viability

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Assessment of Effects in Wild Fish
 Examination of gonad development,
 egg size, fecundity, expression of
 secondary sexual characteristics
 Measurement of circulating Vg,
 reproductive steroid hormone levels
 and thyroid hormones
 Determination of steroid and thyroid
 biosynthetic capacity
 Liver mixed-function oxidase (index of
 exposure to dioxin-like
 organochlorines)
 Histology of endocrine and other
 tissues (gonads, thyroid, liver, gills)
 Deformities and other anomalies
      External Abnormalities in Brown Bullheads

Stubbed Barbels  •   Melanoma   | Focal Discoloration
                           (T*
 Surface lumps and bumps in Western
  Lake Erie are more prevalent 2001
  than in 1990.
 Association between sediment
  contaminants (e.g. PAHs & metals)
  and higher incidence of external
  abnormalities- particularly barbel
  and raised growths.

              Stephen Smith, USGS
Raised Growth -
                                                                                               	
  Health Changes Are Detectable!
    reproduction, physiology,
    morphology;
    all age stages, from embryos to
    young to adu
    likely not just a OC issue, effects
    suggest impacts from other
    contaminants like EDSs
    effects mostly found at sites
    nearest to the AOCs.
                              What has wildlife told
                               us about the current
                                   Great Lakes
                                  environment?
             Assessment of Effects
   Ecosystem Health  Factors]

  Alien species have
  appeared at the rate of
  one per year since
  Dreissena invasion,
  "controls" networking.
  Assessment of effects of
  alien species impeded
  by lack of basic annual
  data on distribution and
  numbers.
[Overview of Great Lakes Salmonids
|Today
   w	
    • With exception of Lake Superior and parts of
     Lake Huron still recruitment bottleneck for lake
     trout

    • Early mortality syndrome in salmonids

    • Major prey species for salmonids
        ale wife, rainbow smelt, and bloater chub

    • Thiamine deficiency is a major factor

      Alien invasive species contain thiamine
          degrading activity
        alewife and rainbow smelt

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What is Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS)?
Observed between hatch and first feeding in
Great Lakes salmonids and is characterized by:
 •  Loss of equilibrium
 *  Swimming in a spiral pattern
 •  Lethargy
   Hyperexcitability
 •  Hemorrhage, etc.
Neurological
 Symptoms
"It seems to me that no
   better case for
ecosystem disruption
 can be made than Its
predatory Inhabitants
 are suffering varying
 degrees of beriberi"
~~~ nod Horfieri Illinois Dnn
                                                                                       BUS to a symptom of a
                                                                                    degraded ecosystem and It's
                                                                                       need for maintaining
                                                                                          biodiversity
   Great Lakes Food Web Effects
             "Nearshore Shunt"
 Harvesting of offshore waters by mussel
 filtration nearshore may alter food web,
 affect YOY fish survival, increase/decrease
 export of nutrients and contaminants.
                                                                     Food Quality Issues (nutrition)
                                Need to assess Impacts of drelssenlds and Bythotrephes
                                on production at higher trophic levels.

                                Since the mid 1990's Diporeia, normally about 70% of the
                                biomass on the bottom, has disappeared in parts of the
                                Great Lakes, except Superior, including all suitable habitat
                                in Lake Erie, and above 80 m depth in Lake Ontario, Lake
                                Michigan and southern Lake Huron.
                                Need to examine the flow of essential nutrients from the
                                base of the food web to key species.

                                Gizzard shad and gobies now major components.
                                                                       20:5n-3 = EPA (Ecosapentaenoic acid)
            Other Effects
  Shoreline filamentous algae - research
  largely dropped but problem has re-
  occurred.

  Sporadic blue-green algae blooms
  sporadic - taste/odor compounds and
  toxins produced.

  Botulism outbreak:  why now? linkage
  with gobies, blue-green algae toxins?

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  ASSESSING CHEMICAL
 INTEGRITY IN THE GREAT
        LAKES BASIN

          Keith Solomon
        University of Guelph
       ksolomon@uoguelph.ca
                                         OUTLINE

                               Identifying chemicals of concern
                               Identifying sources
                               Assessing effects
                               Assessing risks of chemicals of concern
                               Toxicity, hazard and risk
                               Dealing with mixtures
                               Conclusions
                                              IDENTIFYING CHEMICALS OF
                                                        CONCERN
                                              The chemical is in the system
                                              - So what?
                                              By analogy because the chemical is in
                                              other systems
                                              - Other systems are different?
                                              Must avoid Type-3 errors
CORMORANTS IN THE GREAT
            LAKES
  10'

I 10'
c
O 103
I
  102
  10°
   DDT use
ormorant persecution    $'
                      Alewife abundant
   1900   1920    1940   1960   1980    2000
                 Year
Data from Weseloh et al, 1995
 RESIDUES IN ORGANISMS

Presence in the organism does not mean
that it is causing a problem.
 - Canadian "Toxic Nation" report.
Presence in the matrix does not mean that
it is causing a problem.

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                          CAUSAL CRITERIA
                           FOR ASSESSING
                             ENDOCRINE
                           DISRUPTORS: A
                             PROPOSED
                            FRAMEWORK
                         IPCS. 2002. Global Assessment
                         of the State-of-the-Science of
                         Endocrine Disrupters. Geneva,
                         Switzerland: International
                         Programme on Chemical Safety
                         of the World Health Organization
                         Report No.
                         WHO/PCS/EDC/02.2. August
                         2002. http://www.who.int/pcs
   GUIDELINES FOR CAUSALITY
   Temporality
   Strength of association
   Consistency
   Biological plausibility
   Recovery
                       Hill
Koch R. 1882. Die Aetiologie der Tuberculose. In: Clark
DH, ed. Source Book of Medical Histoiy. Dover
Publications, Inc. p 392-406
Hill AB. 1965. The environment and disease: association
or causation? Proc. Roy. Sec. Med. 58:295-300
                               Koch
Doll
     CAUSE FOR WORRY

The concentrations are increasing
 - PBDEs
 - PFOAandPFCs
 - Pharmaceuticals
The substance biomagnifies
 - PBDEs, nottetrabromobisphenol A
 - PFOA/ long chain PFCs
The substance is persistent or pseudopersistent
 - PBDEs
 - PFCs
 - Pharmaceuticals
      IDENTIFYING SOURCES

   Where is it coming from?
   Can we do anything about it?
    - Process changes
    - Source mitigation
   PULP MILL EFFLUENTS
                                                               EFFECTS IN FISH
                                                                        MFO
                                                                       M   F
                                                                                STEROIDS
                                                      Data from Robinson et al, 1994

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       IDENTIFYING THE KEY
             FRACTION
                                Supelco
                               ENVI-CARB (rev)
                               Graph it izecCarbon
                                SPE-2

                                 Waste
   Condensates
   Filter (0.45 urn)
Foritifywith 2% v/v methanol
  pH adjust to 4withHCI
SPE-2
Hewitt ML, Smyth SAM, Dube MG, Oilman Cl, Maclatchy DL. 2002. Isolation of compounds
from bleached kraft mill recovery condensates associated with reduced levels of testosterone
in mummichog (Fundutus fceferactfus). Environ Toxicol Chem 21:1359-1367.
                       AGRICULTURAL
                     PHARMACEUTICALS
                                                              iiifluml Siifl.-KB Wal«s (n*97)
       ASSESSING RISKS OF
    CHEMICALS OF CONCERN

  Frameworks for risk assessment
                     RISK ASSESSMENT
                                                                Problem
                                                               and Hazai
                                n Formulation
                                rd Identification
                                i
ANALYSIS
Effect
characterization

Exposure
characterization
                                                                            USEPA 1998

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  TOXICITY, HAZARD, AND RISK

  Toxicity is not Hazard is not Risk
                                                         Ranking of concerns in the absence of
                                                             exposure information
 EFFECTS CHARACTERIZATION
 • Laboratory studies
   • Surrogate species with standard protocols
   • Mechanisms of action
   • Simple mixtures
ACUTE GROWTH INHIBITION
ASSAYS
10000
1000-
100-
10-
&



i — i P. subcapitata
^m C. vulgaris
^m S. quadricauda
i — i S. acutus 1 1
II

•

1


Fluoxetine Sertraline Fluvoxamine
Johnson 2004
CON    10jig/L   30ng/L  100ng/L  300jig/L  100<>ng/L
     140
     120
    J
    "100

     80

     60

     40

     20

      0
                         Atorvastatin
-Chlorophyll a
•Chlorophyll b
 Carotenoids
•Number of Fronds
-Wet Weight
        10
                      100
                Concentration (ftg/L)
                          1000
                         Brain et al. 2004
                                                                     "All substances are
                                                                     poisons: there is
                                                                     none which is not a
                                                                     poison. The right
                                                                     dose differentiates a
                                                                     poison and a remedy"
                                              PARACELSUS,1493-1541

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Assessment of hazard based on a ratio of single deterministic
             ^oxicity values
     HAZARD.
     (LOG)
QUOTIENTS

EXPOSURE CONCENTRATION

 EFFECT CONCENTRATION
                                           CARL FRIEDRICH GAUB
                                         30 April 1777-23 Feb 1855
                                                                            1 681HA2
       Assessment of risk based on likelihood of
            exposure and/or toxicity
                                           PROBABILITY OF EFFECT
                                                      99.9
                                                        1Cr2    1Cr1    10°    101    102

                                                                 Concentration (ng/l)
                                                                                     103
  DEALING WITH MIXTURES

 Additive toxicity and using potency
 addition (TE).
 Whole effluent testing
                                                   TOTAL POTENCY AS TOXIC UNITS
                                          99.9-

                                           99-
                                                         103  102  10'  10°   101  irf   103  10"   1(f

                                                         Total potency as sulfamethoxazole equivalents (ng/litre)

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        RISK ASSESSMENT
                Problem Formulation
               and Hazard Identification
ANALYSIS
Effect
characterization

Exposure
characterization
  Special considerations
   • Chronic exposures from pseudopersistence
   • Non-traditional endpoints
   • Mixtures a reality and additivity likely
                                                       AQUATIC COSMS
  EFFECT CHARACTERIZATION IN
                COSMS
  • Community-down approach - rapidly identify
   sensitive species in several trophic levels
  • Observation of direct and indirect effects
  • Structural and functional endpoints
  • More realistic stressor exposure
  • Range of concentrations - upper and lower
   thresholds - multiple species - multiple
   responses
  • Synthetic mixtures (Whole Effluent Test)
  FATE OF TYLOSIN IN AQUATIC MICROCOSMS
   10000
  .E 1000:
  to
  _0
  o
  c
  o
  o
     100
10
                          -*-  3000 jig/L
                              1000ng/L
            0    20    40    60   80
Bra/net a/, 2oos  Time (days post final treatment)
                                       100
                                                MIXTURE CONCENTRATIONS
                                                       70 -
                                                       50 -
                                                       30 -

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 Zooplankton Community Response
       Ciprofloxacin, Fluoxetine, Ibuprofen
       • Control Treatment
             14   21  28
             Time (days)
 Richards et al. 2004 ET&C
                                   Phytoplankton Community Response
                                         Ciprofloxacin, Fluoxetine, Ibuprofen
                                                     Time (days)

                                             lards et al. 2004 ET&C
RESPONSE OF MYRIOPHYLLUM SIBIRICUM
Tetracycline, oxytetracycline, chlortetracycline, and doxycycline
 _ 100
 S
 8 80
 °eo
  20

  0
     Total Primary Root Length
10   20   30    40
  Time (days)
                           Brain et al, 2005
                                                RESPONSE OF PLANKTON
                                          o
                                          0> 80-j
                                          Q 100 -i
                                          I"
                                          W/son et a/, 2004
                                                   21 28 35 42
                                                   Time (d)
          CONCLUSIONS
  Identifying chemicals of concern
   - Need to consider causality
  Identifying sources
   - Not always easy
  Assessing effects
   - Need to consider effects above the level of the
    organism
  Assessing risks of chemicals of concern
   - Cannot rely on traditional tests with traditional
    endpoints
  Toxicity, hazard and risk
   - Probabilistic approaches are promising
  Dealing with mixtures
   - Complex but whole effluent testing offers advantages
                                       THANK
                                           YOU
                                       ksolomon@uoguelph.ca

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