United States                          EPA 910-R-01 -007
Environmental Protection                     August, 2001
Agency	
Technical  Synthesis
Scientific Issues Relating
to Temperature Criteria for
Salmon, Trout, and  Char
Native to the Pacific
Northwest
A  summary  report submitted to  the  Policy
Workgroup  of  the  EPA  Region  10  Water
Temperature Criteria Guidance Project

Geoffrey Poole, US Environmental Protection Agency
Jason Dunham, US Forest Service
Mark Hicks, Washington Department of Ecology
Dru Keenan, US Environmental Protection Agency
Jeffrey Lockwood, National Marine Fisheries Service
Elizabeth Materna, US Fish and Wildlife Service
Dale McCullough, Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission
Chris Mebane, Idaho Department of Environmental Quality
John Risley, US Geological Survey
Sally Sauter, US Geological Survey - BRD
Shelley Spalding, US Fish and Wildlife Service
Debra Sturdevant, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality

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                                            Preface
   This document is a product of a Technical Workgroup established by the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) to assist them in developing temperature criteria guidance for EPA Region 10. The purpose
of the EPA guidance is to help Pacific Northwest states and tribes adopt water temperature standards that:

   • Meet the biological requirements of native salmonids (Pacific salmon, trout, and char) species for
     survival and recovery pursuant to the Endangered Species Act (ESA).
   • Provide for the protection and propagation of salmonids under the Clean Water Act (CWA).

   • Meet the salmonid rebuilding needs of federal trust responsibilities with treaty tribes.
   The project focuses on salmonids because the ESA, CWA, and tribal treaties all address the protection
and/or restoration of salmonids. Additionally, this approach is scientifically sound since salmonids can also
be viewed as "umbrella species" that are indicators of the biological integrity of aquatic ecosystems in the
Pacific Northwest.  Where salmonid populations are healthy, habitat conditions are apt to be suitable for other
native aquatic species as well.
   To provide a scientific foundation for the project, the Technical Workgroup developed five technical
summaries on the major physical and biological considerations for developing water temperature standards:
   1.  thermal effects on salmonid physiology,
   2.  thermal effects on salmonid behavior,
   3.  interactions between multiple stressors - thermal and other - affecting salmonids,
   4.  thermal influences on salmonid distribution, and
   5.  spatial and temporal variation in patterns of stream temperature.
Each of these summary papers is available on the internet under the "Water" link at the EPA's Region 10
website (http://www.epa.gov/regionlO/) or by contacting EPA Regional Office in Seattle, WA.
   This document has two purposes.  First, it attempts to concisely synthesize the findings of the technical
summaries. Second, it outlines several conclusions drawn by the Technical Workgroup based on the literature
review included in the technical summaries.  Therefore, this document takes the first step beyond the technical
summaries and begins to discuss the implications of the technical findings for water quality criteria for
temperature. The conclusions outlined toward the end of this document represent the collective interpretation
of the scientific literature by the Technical Workgroup rather than "facts" established by experimentation.
Further, a panel of experts on salmonid biology and stream temperature provided external, independent peer
review of the technical summaries, this synthesis, and its conclusions. Thus, this synthesis and its conclusions
are important in that they represent broad consensus  of the members of the Technical Workgroup and
concurrence of the majority of the scientific review panel.

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                                       Contents:
Preface	ii
Introduction	1
Project Background	1
  Clean Water Act	1
  Endangered Species Act	2
  Treaty Rights and the Trust Responsibility	2
Project Structure	3
How cold must water temperatures be to support salmonids?	3
How much cold water is necessary to support salmonids? When and where must it exist?	6
  Biological diversity	7
  Natural temperature dynamics	8
  Incorporating thermal regimes	9
How do human activities affect stream temperatures?	11
How can we contend with scientific uncertainty when establishing temperature criteria?	13
Implications for Water Temperature Standards	15
References	18
Appendix A:  Technical Interpretation of the Project Goals	19
                                             11

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
Introduction
   Water temperature affects the distribution, health,
and survival of native salmonids (salmon, trout, and
char) and other aquatic organisms by influencing
their physiology and behavior.  Since salmonids are
ectothermic (cold-blooded), temporally and spatially
heterogeneous thermal conditions are a resource that
fish utilize through behavioral means to control body
temperature within narrow limits (see Behavioral
technical summary). Water temperatures, along with
adequate flow, food, oxygen, shelter, and other
resources, determine  habitat suitability for each
species. While community composition is shaped by
numerous habitat components, each of which can
provide   optimal  or  suboptimal   conditions,
temperature is an important aspect of habitat quality.
 Further, temperature acts synergistically with other
environmental stressors, thereby affecting the ability
of individual fish to  survive and  reproduce, and
affecting salmonid population viability.
   Water that is too warm can cause direct mortality
of salmonids.  In addition, temperature influences
the abundance and well-being of organisms by
controlling their metabolic processes.  While lethal
temperatures occur in nature  and can be  locally
problematic,  temperatures  in the range  where
sublethal effects occur are widespread and may have
the greatest effect on the overall  well-being and
patterns of occurrence of our native fish populations.
As stream temperatures and patterns of heating and
cooling (the "thermal regime") change due to land
management or other impacts, salmonid fishes may
be exposed to temperatures outside their physiologic
optimum, and fish communities  may  be  altered
accordingly (see Distribution technical summary).
   Salmonids have physiological  (see Physiology
technical summary) and behavioral (see Behavior
technical  summary)  adaptations  to temperature
dynamics that once allowed them to thrive in the
ecologically-diverse rivers and streams of the Pacific
Northwest, even though stream temperatures have
never been optimal in all places and at all times (see
Spatio-temporal  technical summary).  However,
where human-caused changes to  stream thermal
regimes have  occurred, they have contributed  to
degradation of  habitat  conditions  that  prevent
salmonids from continuing to flourish. While many
factors contribute to the decline in native salmonid
populations, alteration of temperature regimes has
played an important role where it has occurred, both
directly and through  synergistic  interaction with
other factors such as habitat loss and disease.

Project Background
   Many laws and regulations govern  the use  of
water in the United States.  In the Pacific Northwest,
two federal statutes play key roles: the Clean Water
Act (CWA) and the Endangered Species  Act (ESA).
 The CWA provides the  statutory basis for water
quality standards programs and defines broad water
quality goals.  The ESA provides a means whereby
the  ecosystems  upon  which   threatened  and
endangered species depend may be conserved, and
to provide  a program for the conservation of such
species. Under the ESA, all federal departments are
required to conserve  threatened  and endangered
species.  Further, under  federal treaties  with the
Columbia   River  tribes,   the   federal  trust
responsibility imposes an  obligation on all federal
agencies to protect and restore fish and their habitats
as necessary to fulfill the intent of the treaties.
   The ESA is an important statute in the regulation
of water quality, because threatened and endangered
salmonids depend on cold, clean water, and because
federal agencies are required to cooperate with state
and local agencies to resolve water resource issues
in concert with conservation of endangered species.
 The issues of clean water (CWA) and species
recovery (ESA)  are  widespread.    Many major
watersheds in  the region  contain streams listed  as
"water quality limited" due to temperature, and most
are important to  the recovery of at least one listed
salmonid species. Both the CWA and ESA should
therefore play complementary roles in the recovery
of salmonids in the Pacific Northwest.
Clean Water Act
   A water quality standard defines the water quality
goals for a water body by designating the use or uses

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
to be  made  of the water, by  setting "criteria"
necessary to protect the uses, and by preventing or
limiting  degradation  of  water quality through
antidegradation provisions. Under section 304(a) of
the CWA, EPA publishes water quality criteria that
reflect available scientific information on the levels
of  specific  chemicals  or parameters  for  the
protection of aquatic life or human health.  These
criteria are intended to provide  protection  for all
surface waters on a national basis, and may be used
by states as a basis for developing enforceable water
quality criteria as part of their standards. The  criteria
are provided as guidance, to assist states and tribes
in setting water quality standards.
   The foundation for EPA's national  criteria for
temperature  was  established  by  the National
Academies  of Sciences and Engineering in a review
for EPA, Water Quality Criteria 1972:  Report to
the U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency.  The
report focuses on preferred methods and procedures
for judging thermal requirements  rather than on
providing specific  numerical  values  for various
species of concern. The report suggested that  species
and life stages be protected  from several levels of
negative  effects of increased  temperature: lethal
effects, sublethal effects, habitat  exclusion, and
reproductive continuity. The report also focused on
the importance of establishing upper  limits for a
maximum  weekly  average temperature, and on
establishing   a   time-dependent    maximum
temperature for  short exposures.  The work was
based on the physiological requirements of species
and did not take into account the physical aspects of
stream or lake systems.  EPA later augmented this
work and established numeric temperature criteria
for certain species including  coho and sockeye
salmon (EPA 1976).
   EPA's 1986 Quality Criteria for  Water report, as
updated in  National Recommended Water Quality
Criteria  (EPA 1999),  contains  summaries of all
contaminants and conditions for which EPA has
developed criteria recommendations.  The criteria
serve as guidance  to  assist states and tribes  in
adopting water quality standards,  as  required by
section 303(c) of the CWA.  Once adopted, states
and tribes are to  submit the standards to EPA for
review and approval or disapproval.  EPA reviews
the standards to  determine compliance  with the
CWA  and implementing regulations and to ensure
the  criteria  associated  with  the standard  are
protective of the designated beneficial uses.
Endangered Species Act
   When a state proposes  a water quality standard
that  may affect  species  listed  as threatened  or
endangered populations under the ESA, EPA must
consult with the  U.S.  Fish and Wildlife Service
(USFWS)  and/or the National  Marine Fisheries
Service (NMFS) prior to approving the standard, in
order to ensure that the proposed standard will not
jeopardize  the continued existence  of a  listed
species. In order to streamline the process of review
and  consultation  for  future water  temperature
standards in the Pacific Northwest, EPA Region 10
developed   a  program   that   allows   Oregon,
Washington,   Idaho,   Native   American   tribal
governments, EPA, NMFS, and USFWS to develop
guidance jointly  for  the  development of water
temperature  criteria.   All   of  the  participating
agencies and tribes hope to use the final product to
harmonize the ESA and CWA with respect to water
temperature standards, and to help remove water
temperature as an impediment to the recovery of
imperiled native salmonids.
Treaty Rights and the Trust Responsibility
   Through their treaties, tribes reserved the right to
fish at all usual and accustomed fishing places and
to take a "fair share" of the fish destined to pass to
such areas. The Supreme Court has determined that
the tribes' fair share is 50 percent of the harvestable
fish, unless a moderate living standard can be met
with less. Guaranteed by treaty, these tribal fishing
rights  may   only be  abrogated  by   specific
congressional legislation  - no  one may use any
method to  otherwise deprive treaty  fishermen of
their right  to a fair share  of the anadromous fish
(those  that migrate from streams to the ocean and
back).

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
   As trustee of the tribes, the federal government
also has the affirmative obligation to safeguard the
subject matter of the treaty fishing right - the fish.
Thus, federal agencies must use their authorities in
a manner that will protect and prevent degradation
of the habitat needed  to support anadromous fish
species. At a minimum, agencies have the duty to
refrain from  activities that will interfere with the
fulfillment of treaty fishing rights.  Anything less
would amount to a de facto abrogation of Native
American treaty rights. Thus, unless federal agencies
can  demonstrate that treaty  fishing  rights  are
presently  being  fulfilled,   they cannot  justify
approving  activities  that  will cause   further
degradation of anadromous fish habitat.  Similarly,
they cannot "balance" their treaty obligations against
competing impacts to non-Native Americans  or
"delay" such obligations in order to minimize those
impacts.
   The federal trust obligation also mandates that
Federal  agencies enhance salmonid habitat  where
necessary  to  safeguard the fish  that underlie the
treaty fishing right.  Arguably, this Federal trust
obligation does  not cease once a fish run becomes
viable, but must continue to allow for harvestable
populations offish and meaningful fulfillment of the
treaty right to take fish.

Project Structure
   EPA initiated  development  of guidance  for
regional temperature criteria through a multi-agency
effort intended  to  develop  guidance  for  regional
temperature  criteria that would  be  protective  of
native  salmonids,  would  recognize  the natural
temperature  potential  and  limitations of  streams,
could be effectively incorporated by states and tribes
in water quality standards programs, and would be
endorsed by EPA, USFWS, NMFS, states, and tribes
in the Pacific Northwest. Additionally, it is  intend
that EPA use the new  criteria guidance to evaluate
revisions to state and tribal temperature standards,
and that states and tribes will use the new criteria
guidance to revise their temperature standards. The
Technical   Workgroup  developed  a   technical
interpretation of the project goals (see Appendix A)
that articulates the goals in terms of viable salmonid
populations,  distribution of coldwater habitat to
support viable populations, and coldwater habitat
support of all life history stages of salmonids.
   The  individuals  involved in the  project are
employees of tribes and state and federal agencies,
and  are divided  into a technical  and a policy
workgroup. The Policy Workgroup is comprised of
agency/tribal  managers  and  has  the  ultimate
decision-making authority regarding the final form
of the  guidance.    The  Technical Workgroup,
comprised  of  agency  and tribal  scientists, is
responsible  for  developing draft  guidance  and
providing  technical   review   of  the  Policy
Workgroup's final decision.
   Water temperature improvement alone can not
restore   native   fish  populations;    however,
temperature improvements are necessary to restore
requisite freshwater  habitat  for  both  resident
salmonids (those that fulfill their entire life cycle in
streams, rivers,  and/or lakes) and anadromous
salmonids.  Relatively high freshwater survival is
necessary to produce sufficient numbers of spawning
adults. For example, since mortality is high during
the egg to smolt periods in the freshwater and
estuarine   phases   of   anadromous   salmonid
development, reducing mortality during these stages
offers significant  opportunities for  restoration of
anadromous  fish  (Federal  Caucus 2000).  For
anadromous fish, freshwater survival is particularly
important during periods of poor ocean productivity.

How cold  must water temperatures be
to support salmonids?
   Viable populations of native  salmonids in the
Pacific Northwest need abundant cold water that is
well-distributed over space and time to meet their
freshwater habitat needs (see Physiology, Behavior,
Multiple  stressors,  and  Distribution  technical
summaries).  The  importance of cold water habitat
to salmonids  is  documented by scientific research
(summarized  in the  Physiology,  Behavior,  and
Multiple  stressors  technical  summaries).   The

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
thermal tolerances expressed by salmonids are lower
than those expressed by other groups of fishes, such
as centrarchids (e.g., smallmouth bass, perch) and
cyprinids (e.g., carp, northern pikeminnow).
   Salmonid feeding, growth, resistance to disease,
competitive ability, and predator avoidance are
impaired   by   unsuitable  temperatures   (see
Physiology,  Behavior,   and  Multiple  stressors
technical  summaries).  For  instance,  adult fish
holding  in  warm  water experience bioenergetic
stress and consume their stored energy more rapidly,
which may result  in reduced spawning success.
Prolonged holding in sub-optimal temperatures can
result multiple stresses, such as concurrent thermal
stress, disease, and energy depletion.  Additionally,
thermal stress experienced while fish are holding can
decrease gamete viability.  Warm temperatures can
alter growth and development rates for juveniles and
salmonids  that feed in  fresh water.   In addition,
warm water can present thermal barriers to adult and
juvenile  migrations. If enough  fish are affected,
salmonid population viability may be reduced.
   Temperature-dependent life stages for salmonids
include  spawning, egg incubation, emergence,
rearing, smoltification, migration, and pre-spawn
holding.  Any of these salmonid life stages can be
present (depending on species and location) during
summer months when streams in Pacific Northwest
are warmest. Scientific evidence suggests that small
increases in  temperatures (e.g.,  2-3°C)  above
biologically optimal ranges can begin to  reduce
salmonid fitness in some of these life stages.
   While individual salmonids may be observed in
streams  where  temperatures  exceed  laboratory-
determined thermal tolerances, these observations
alone are not grounds for concluding that warmer
streams and rivers can  support  healthy salmonid
populations. Individual fish may  stray or be trapped
in waters  where  temperatures  are  stressful  or
ultimately  lethal.   Further, if coldwater  pockets
(micro-refugia) are available in warm streams, small
number of salmonids may be able to survive by
exploiting these cold areas for short periods to avoid
heat stress (see Behavioral technical summary), even
though the majority of habitat in the stream is too
warm to support salmonids
   Thermal conditions supporting and/or impairing
various life stages and biological functions of some
salmonids have been  identified,  primarily  in
laboratory settings  (Table 1).  These numbers are
based  on documenting the response of individual
fish to various water temperatures.  Therefore, there
is some uncertainty regarding whether many of the
temperatures  listed  are  appropriate  targets  for
supporting viable salmonid populations in rivers and
streams.   This uncertainty is compounded because
most laboratory  studies address  single  stressors
while  providing  optimal conditions for  other
environmental  factors,  even though temperature
does not act independently from other factors (Table
2, see  also Multiple stressors technical  summary).
For example, when salmonids are fed to  satiation,
temperatures associated with maximum growth-rates
are higher than under conditions of more natural
(limited)  food  supply.     Similarly,  allowing
salmonids to slowly acclimate to warm temperatures
in the laboratory will extend their thermal tolerance,
yet  migrating salmonids  pass  rapidly  through
thermally diverse environments and may not have
time to acclimate in the field. It is difficult to mimic
field conditions in the laboratory, or to disentangle
the effects of the multiple, interacting factors in
complex natural systems.  Because field conditions
are more ecologically  complex than laboratory
settings,  the uppermost laboratory-derived thermal
limits  are not likely to prevent adverse effects  in a
natural setting. Thus,  where studies have  attemped
to  derive the  uppermost  thermal  limits  for
salmonids,  they have  measured responses  of
individual fish to water temperature in a laboratory
setting. Stream temperatures may have to somewhat
cooler than measured  uppermost thermal tolerances
in order  to support  viable salmonid populations in
natural settings.
   Because various  salmonid species and life stages
show high fitness in a range of laboratory-derived
optimal water temperatures, these temperatures (e.g.,
optimal temperatures shown on Table  1) can provide

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
 Table 1. Estimates of thermal conditions known to support various life stages and biological functions of
 bull trout (a species extremely intolerant of warm water) and anadromous (ocean-reared) salmon. These
 numbers dp not represent rigid thresholds, but rather represent temperatures above which adverse effects
 are more likely to occur. In the interest of simplicity, important differences between various species of
 anadromous salmon are not reflected in this table and requirements for other salmonids are not listed.
 Likewise, important differences in how temperatures are expressed are not included (e.g., instantaneous
 maximums, daily averages, etc.).  These numbers are taken from the Physiology technical summary; that
 summary should be consulted for more detailed discussions and for references to scientific literature that
 support these numbers.
 Consideration
 Anadromous Salmon
      Bull Trout
 Temperature of common summer habitat use
 Lethal temperatures (one week exposure)

 Adult migration
 Swimming speed

 Gamete viability during holding
 Disease rates


 Spawning
 Egg incubation
 Optimal growth

 Smoltification
        10-17°C
   Adults: >21-22°C
  Juveniles: >23-24°C
  Blocked: >21-22°C
    Reduced: >20°C
   Optimal: 15-19°C
  Reduced: >13-16°C
   Severe: >18-20°C
   Elevated: 14-17°C
 Minimized: <12-13°C
    Initiated: 7-14°C
    Optimal: 6-10°C
Unlimited food: 13-19°C
 Limited food: 10-16°C
 Suppressed: >11-15°C
        6-12°C

  Juveniles: >22-23°C
     Cued: 10-13°C
     Initiated: <9°C
     Optimal: 2-6°C
Unlimited food: 12-16°C
  Limited food: 8-12°C
conservative  guidance  for  identifying  instream
temperatures most likely to protect salmonids.  We
do not intend to imply, therefore, that all streams
must provide these optimal conditions at all times or
in all  places.   We  simply  intend  to  focus  our
attention on identifying temperatures that are very
likely to support viable salmonid populations.
   The   scientific  research   reviewed  in  the
Physiology,  Behavior   and   Multiple-stressor
technical summaries shows that salmonids require a
diversity of cold water temperatures in streams
(Table 1) and that these temperatures must exist at
appropriate locations and at appropriate times of the
year.   While laboratory  evidence  suggests adult
salmon can generally survive a week or more at
constant temperatures of 21°C and can often tolerate
     temperatures as warm as 18°C for prolonged periods
     under  controlled  experimental  settings,  constant
     temperatures  above 16°C have  been  shown to be
     intolerable for species such as bull trout. Not only
     do  different   species have  unique  temperature
     requirements,  but individual species  have unique
     temperature requirements for different  life stages
     (spawning, incubation, juvenile growth, seawater
     adaptation, and adult migration) (see Physiology
     technical summary).  The times  at which those life
     stages  occur are highly variable among streams of
     our  region.  In  consideration  of the  available
     scientific  information, we conclude  that viable
     salmonid populations will require a variety of cold
     water  temperatures  (Table  1) that  are well-
     distributed over space and time.

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
  Table 2. Examples of considerations for interpreting laboratory observations of thermal tolerances and
  preferences for salmonids.
  Consideration    Effect
                         Implication
  Acclimation
  Feeding
  Social
  interactions
  Physiochemical
  conditions
  Handling


  Fish size/stage



  Exposure
When  salmonids  are
acclimated  to warmer
temperatures in the lab,
incipient lethal and other
threshold  temperatures
rise to a limited extent
Feeding  to   satiation
increases optimal growth
temperatures relative to
when food is limited.
Food quality and cost of
foraging  may also be
important
Can    mitigate     or
exacerbate     various
thermal stresses
Can alter stress response
in a number of ways
Causes additional stress
Response may be size,
age, or stage-dependent
Exposure  in lab  and
field settings may differ
Results  from laboratory studies  are  not  directly comparable  unless
acclimation conditions are the same. Further, direct comparisons between
lab and field conditions may be precluded because temperatures may vary
considerably in the field.  To make comparisons between lab and field
studies, some researchers assume that fish are acclimated to a temperature
between the mean and the maximum daily temperature.
In the field, food availability is usually limited.  Thus, lab tests where
feeding levels are at satiation can overestimate suitable temperatures for
growth and certain other  performances.   Also, food quality  in the
laboratory may differ from foods available in the field, and fish in the field
must expend more  energy to locate, and capture prey.  Foraging costs
(energy  expenditure)  may  be reduced considerably under  laboratory
conditions than under field conditions, thereby reducing stress.
Social conditions in the field, especially territoriality, are key components
of salmonid population regulation and behavior.  Experimental studies
seldom consider the  role of social factors,  which could mitigate or
exacerbate  responses  to  stressful  temperatures.   Unnatural  social
circumstances in the laboratory include, but are not limited to: possible
high fish densities, wild vs. hatchery fish behavior, and altered community
age structure.  In the field, high fish density or low food availability can
result in fish being forced to inhabit marginal thermal habitat. Mixtures of
species and age  classes can intensify social interactions in the field,
whereas lab studies typically use single species and age classes per test.
Artificial lighting,  photoperiod,  thermal regulation, water chemistry,
habitat structure (lab  apparatus),  cover, etc., may not reflect field
conditions and are tied to physiological and behavioral responses to stress.
 Response may be partially determined by  physical features  of the
experimental apparatus  (e.g., horizontal vs. vertical thermal gradient in
preference tests).
Repeated handling of fish,  invasive procedures, and interaction with
apparatus  (e.g., tank  maintenance), can alter both physiological and
behavioral responses to stress.
Most  laboratory  studies focus  on early  life stages  (e.g.,  eggs, fry,
juveniles).  This may not reflect the total  life cycle in the wild.  For
example, adults and emergent fry can be more  sensitive to elevated
temperature then juveniles.
Natural streams have a diurnal range of temperatures and may have cooler
areas in pools, tributaries, or where ground water upwells where fish can
take refuge from warm temperatures. Fish in a laboratory aquarium cannot
escape their test conditions, which may be constant.	
How much cold water is necessary to
support salmon ids?  When and where
must it exist?

   Temperature criteria to protect salmonids have
traditionally attempted to identify the warmest water
temperatures that can support salmonids. However,
identifying  water temperature thresholds  is  not
                                      sufficient  to ensure support for viable salmonid
                                      populations.1 It is also important to determine how
                                      much cold water is needed, and here and when it be
                                      available.

                                         Native  Pacific  salmon,  trout, and  char  have
                                      complex life histories (Figure 1) that evolved in the
                                      spatially and temporally dynamic landscapes of the
                                                           Viable populations are defined in Appendix A

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
Pacific  Northwest  (see  Distribution  technical
summary).  Accordingly, providing enough cold
water at the right places and times to  support the
recovery of native salmonids will require restoration
and protection of natural ecosystem processes and
patterns, including thermal  regimes  and spatial
patterns of thermal habitat (see Spatial-temporal
technical summary). Thus, our understanding of the
biological and physical diversity of natural processes
should provide guidance for developing  temperature
criteria.  Maintaining biological diversity and natural
system  dynamics  are  important  goals  when
considering how much cold water is necessary, when
it is necessary, and where it is necessary.
Biological diversity
   The  spatial and temporal dynamics of natural
thermal regimes  lead to variations in  life history
characteristics (e.g., growth, timing of migration,
age at reproduction). These characteristics interact
in complex ways to determine individual fitness, and
patterns of life  history variability, viability,  and
productivity among populations and species. Within
a species, individuals and populations with different
life cycles and life histories may fare differently
under   changing   environmental    conditions.
Variability in life history strategies may therefore
confer  stability  and  increased productivity  to
salmonid   populations  in   naturally   variable
environments. Alteration of natural thermal regimes
may cause populations to decline or important life
history variability to be lost (see Spatio-temporal
technical summary).
   Criteria for temperature standards sometimes use
specific   characteristics  of  individuals  and/or
populations (e.g., density offish, growth, fecundity,
or survival) to simplify the task of managing or
tracking population response. However, there is risk
associated with using a small  set of population
indices (e.g.,  Sullivan 2000) or attempting system-
wide maximization of any of these measures because
of interaction or feedback among multiple factors.
For instance, Holtby  (1988)  found that logging
increased winter water temperature and subsequently
the growth of juvenile coho salmon.  While this
      Streams, Rivers
       and/or Lakes    Estuary
Ocean
                                   Adult
Figure  1.  A  simplified general  sequence of
events in the life cycle of salmonid fishes.  All
salmonids deposit eggs in freshwater (stream or
lake)  habitats.  Depending on temperature and
other  factors, eggs hatch into alevins (sac fry).
Alevins typically remain in  or near spawning
substrates  until the  yolk sac is  absorbed.
Following absorption of the yolk sac, the young
are referred to as "fry."  This stage signifies the
initiation of active feeding and development into
fully formed juveniles. Juveniles may remain in
their natal tributary or lake and mature as adults.
This is referred to as a "resident"  life history.
Known   migratory   life   histories   include
migrations  to  non-natal  lakes  and  streams
(potadromy) and marine habitats (anadromy).
The   transition  to  the  marine   environment
involves complex physiological changes, referred
to as  "smoltification" in juvenile salmonids.
Adults of  some species may make repeated
transitions  between  freshwater   and   marine
habitats,  however. Migratory behavior varies
substantially  among  species, and  within  and
among local populations, in many cases.

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
might be expected to be beneficial, the increased
growth  accompanied earlier migration,  reduced
marine survival, and an overall reduction in the
number of  returning fish.  This  illustrates  how
attempting to maximize a single metric (in this case,
growth)   might   have  unintended   negative
consequences for the population as a whole. This is
not to  say  that growth  should  be ignored as an
important   factor   for   monitoring   salmonid
populations.  It  simply  underscores that single
measures are not effective indicators of population
status and that attempts to maximize such measures
are associated with biological risks.  In fact, these
simplified  approaches  may  reduce rather  than
preserve natural biological diversity and viability of
salmonid populations by focusing attention  on
specific performance measures  at the expense of
            other important aspects of  biological  diversity
            (Lichatowich 1997).
            Natural temperature dynamics
               Natural landscapes represent a complex mosaic
            of physical  and biological  diversity.  Ecosystem
            processes that shape these physical and biological
            patterns can operate on a number of scales in time or
            space.  A natural thermal regime can be considered
            in terms of magnitude, frequency,  duration,  and
            timing  of   events   (e.g.,    summer   maximum
            temperatures)  and rates of  change (i.e., how  fast
            temperatures heat or cool) at different temporal and
            spatial scales.
               Temporal scale.  Temporal variation  of a thermal
            regime  can  be considered in terms of variability
   A.
                                  00:00     10:00    20:0(
   B.
           Habitat unit
Network
          Stream  reach
                                           "Patch"
                                           or "Stream'
                         Figure 2.  Examples of temporal
                         and  spatial variation in thermal
                         regimes.    (A) Annual,  seasonal,
                         and  daily thermal regimes.   (B)
                         Different   spatial  scales  where
                         habitat   variability    is   often
                         considered, (see Frissell et  al.
                         1986,  Hawkins  et  al.   1991,
                         Montgomery and Buffmgton 1998,
                         Dunham et al. 2001).

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
among years, within a year (among seasons), within
seasons (among days or weeks), and within a single
day (among hours) (Figure 2).  Thermal regimes
affect salmonids at all  of these scales (see Spatio-
temporal  technical  summary).    Decadal-scale
variation in climate and temperature (e.g., El Nino
events, Pacific decadal oscillations) may affect long-
term patterns of productivity in salmon populations.
Within years, the timing and locations of various
parts of the salmonid life cycle are linked to seasonal
patterns   of  stream  temperature  and habitat
availability.     Smaller-scale   weekly   or  daily
variability in temperature also may be important as
they affect  chronic  or acute  thermal  stress (see
Physiology  technical  summary)  and individual
behaviors, such as  migration, habitat  selection,
predator avoidance,  competition,  and behavioral
thermoregulation (see Behavior technical summary).
   Spatial scale.  Spatial pattern is  an important part
of a thermal regime.  Spatial  variation can occur
within a few meters,  such as with pools and riffles,
within  a  larger  habitat scale including  stream
reaches, individual streams, and  stream  networks
(Figure 2).  Two important aspects of the spatial
distribution  of thermal habitat are the  size and
locations  of thermal  refuges.  For coldwater fish,
thermal refuges can be defined as patches of cold
water that allow individuals  or populations to persist
in a thermal regime that ranges (in  time  or space)
outside of the zone of tolerance or preference for a
given species. Thermal refuges may range in size
from fine scale (e.g., pockets of cold water provided
by thermal stratification and localized ground water
upwelling to cold side  channels and backwaters in
alluvial systems)  to coarse scale  (e.g., thermal
variation between headwater creeks  to larger main-
stem   rivers;   see    Spatio-temporal    technical
summary).
   Landscape context.  Protection offish at specific
sites is not sufficient to guarantee the  health of a
local   population.     Emerging   evidence  (see
Distribution technical summary) suggests the  health
of local populations may depend on the landscape
context   -    specifically,   the  size,  number,
connectivity, location, and quality of occupied and
unoccupied habitats within  which the population
lives. The landscape context refers to the spatial as
well as temporal dynamics  of habitat change and
occupation.   Where  habitat  is  degraded,  fish
populations that decline will not recover until the
habitat  has  recovered.  In  some cases,  however,
habitat  is  not  just degraded,  but a disturbance
renders the habitat temporarily unsuitable (e.g. local
temperature  increases  in a portion of  a  stream
network)  for salmonid survival. In these  cases,
although that habitat may ultimately recover, the loss
of certain species from the  disturbed area  can be
either temporary or permanent.  Species loss is likely
to be temporary if other suitable habitats (refuges
from disturbance) are: 1) large enough to maintain
viable populations  of affected  fish,  and 2) inter-
connected to allow emigration from the refuge(s) to
the disturbed site when (or if) it recovers from the
disturbance. This underscores the fact that not all
suitable habitat is necessarily  occupied at all times in
a dynamic natural landscape. Therefore, protection
of  some   amount of  currently  occupied  and
unoccupied habitat may be needed to  provide a
sufficiently large network of well-connected habitat
distributed across the landscape (Figure 3). Specific
answers to the questions of precisely "how large?"
or "how  connected?"  are only beginning  to be
addressed as principles of conservation biology are
integrated into  salmonid ecology (see Distribution
technical summary), but those efforts suggest that
habitat must be widespread  and well-connected in
order to meet a  goal of maintaining viable salmonid
populations.
Incorporating thermal regimes
   While we do not fully understand how natural
ecosystems function,  natural conditions serve as
models of stream temperature dynamics known to
have supported viable salmonid populations. It is
difficult to prescribe "appropriate" thermal regimes
from inferences about biological  conditions or
physical   conditions   alone.   Our   biological
understanding of salmonids has  provided important
insights into the effects of temperature, but it does

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
                                       Figure 3. Example of temporal variation in patterns of habitat
                                       occupancy by salmonids in a dynamic landscape.  Circles
                                       represent potential "patches" (Dunham et al.,  in  press) of
                                       suitable habitat in a stream network (lines).  Filled circles
                                       represent occupied habitats, and unfilled  circles  indicate
                                       unoccupied habitats. Temporal variation in stream habitats can
                                       change habitat suitability over time, and  affect patterns of
                                       habitat occupancy.  Even if stream conditions remain  static,
                                       external  factors (e.g., ocean productivity cycles) may cause
                                       variation in fish populations and habitat occupancy over time.
                                        Either will  produce patches  of potentially suitable,  but
                                       unoccupied, habitat and  a dynamic of local extinction  and
                                       recolonization by different species (Reeves et al. 1995, Rieman
                                       and Dunham 2000).
not  directly  address  the   causes   of thermal
degradation.   If one  accepts that salmonids  are
adapted to survive in the historic conditions of the
Pacific  Northwest, it follows that  temperature
standards  that encourage  attempts  to restore an
ecosystem's thermal dynamics (e.g.,  address  the
causes of thermal degradation) will provide a very
high  likelihood  of  supporting  viable  salmonid
populations.
   In an ideal world, we might eliminate thermal
degradation by restoring stream temperatures to pre-
settlement   thermal   regimes  that  historically
supported viable salmonid populations.  However,
restoration of historical  conditions  can be  an
unreasonable   goal   given   that    restoration
opportunities may be limited to varying degrees by
certain  "irreversible"  human-caused or  natural
landscape changes, such as development of major
urban centers and volcanic  eruptions.  Yet,  the
continuing  collapse   of  salmonid   populations
suggests that the existing amount and distribution of
suitable  habitat  in  the  Pacific Northwest  is
inadequate to maintain viable salmonid populations.
Therefore, based on the scientific review contained
in  the  technical   summaries,  the   Technical
Workgroup  concludes water temperature criteria
should ideally address thermal regimes, and that four
actions relevant  to  thermal regimes may  be
necessary and should be strongly considered in order
to ensure adequate amounts and distributions of cold
water to support salmonid populations.
1) Immediate  protection  of  remaining  suitable
   habitat from thermal degradation.
2) Restoration of some  amount  of  thermally
   degraded  habitat.     Given   that   thermal
   degradation in  many  streams  may  not be
   reversible due to policy considerations or social
   and economic realities, it is likely that much or
   even all habitat that can be restored will need to
                                                 10

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
   be   restored  in   order  to  support  viable
   populations.
3) Implementation of restoration across  a broad
   spectrum of habitats from headwaters to ocean
   because the life  histories of salmonids  span
   entire watersheds.
4) Protection  and restoration targets  based on
   consideration of a wide array of evidence with
   an emphasis on natural temperature  dynamics.
   Engineering artificial thermal regimes may entail
   greater uncertainty and risk than attempting to
   mimic natural processes and patterns (see Poff et
   al. 1997 for a discussion of the importance of
   maintaining or restoring natural regimes).
How  do   human   activities   affect
stream temperatures?
   Water temperature is determined by interactions
between the amount of water flowing in the stream,
the structural configuration of the stream and
riparian zone, and various factors external to the
stream/riparian zone (see Spatio-temporal technical
summary).   In many  river basins  of the Pacific
Northwest, land management  activities have (1)
reduced connectivity  (i.e., the flow of energy,
organisms, and materials) between streams, riparian
areas, floodplains,  ground water, and uplands; (2)
altered floodplain function, wetlands, water tables,
and base flows; (3) elevated fine sediment yields,
making streams wider and shallower, with  fewer
Riparian
Management
i

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                                    ^J Channel Water Temperature   |

Figure 4. Some pathways of human-caused warming of stream channels (From Poole and Berman 2001.).
 The symbol "+" indicates an expected (but not certain) increase, "-" an expected (but not certain)
decrease, and "A" either an expected increase or decrease depending on the specific circumstance or
measurement used.  This  graphic is  designed to  illustrate the complexity  associated with stream
temperature dynamics.  It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary. Additional arrows and boxes
are possible under various conditions.
                                                11

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
pools; (4) reduced instream and riparian large woody
debris that traps sediment, stabilizes stream banks,
and helps form pools; (5)  reduced or  eliminated
riparian vegetation;  and (6)  altered peak  flow
volumes and timing (FEMAT 1993, Henjum et al.
1994, Rhodes et  al.  1994,  Wissmar et al. 1994,
National Research Council 1996, Spence et al. 1996,
Oregon Coastal Salmon Restoration Initiative 1997,
Quigley and Arbelbide 1997, Mclntosh et al. 2000).
Thus, human activities can alter stream temperature
through a variety  of complex  and  interactive
pathways  (Figure 4).  In developing guidance for
water quality criteria, we believe it is important to
consider a wide array of pathways by which human
actions  alter temperature and the ways in which
different approaches to temperature standards might
be effective or ineffective at addressing the influence
of each pathways.
   Human-caused changes to stream temperature are
often hard to quantify, often because of difficulty
determining what the "natural"  water temperature
would  have been in the absence of human-caused
degradation. However, scientific research has shown
that human activities have the potential to alter
thermal regimes  (see  Spatio-temporal  technical
summary).    Along   with  changes   in  mean
temperature,  more  subtle  changes  in  stream
temperature may be  manifested  as changes in
temperature extremes, in temperature variation, or in
the timing of temperature  extremes (see Spatio-
temporal  technical  summary).  Although some
human  impacts (e.g.,  dams) can  reduce diurnal
temperature variation,  human-caused degradation
often simplifies stream structure, which eliminates
the coldest water habitats  and reduces spatial
temperature variation within stream reaches. At the
same   time,  human-caused   degradation  often
increases  the  daily  and  seasonal temperature
variation in stream reaches  by interrupting natural
processes  that buffer stream temperature such as
riparian shade, in-stream flow,  and ground water
influx, (see Spatio-temporal technical  summary).
While  these effects might seem  to offset  one
another, they instead have  a synergistic negative
effect on salmonid populations.  Increases in daily
and  seasonal  variation  expose  fish  to higher
summertime maximum temperatures. At the same
time, loss of coldwater habitat that reduces spatial
variation   within   stream   reaches  precludes
salmonids' ability to escape high temperatures or
avoid other detrimental physiological and ecological
conditions (see Behavior technical summary).
   Human  influences  on stream  temperature are
inherently cumulative; as the amount and  intensity
of land-use and river flow regulation increase in a
basin,  so too does the  magnitude  of in-stream
temperature changes (see Spatio-temporal technical
summary). Thus, problematic water temperatures
are most apt to occur in basins where urbanization
and intensive land-use activities (such as logging
and agriculture) are widespread and/or where dams
or water  withdrawals  have substantially altered
natural  flow  regimes.   In these  basins, stream
warming will occur if human actions cause  more
heat to be added to  stream, and some of that heat
will  remain  in  the   stream  as  water  moves
downstream.  Any accumulated additional heat will
remain in the stream until downstream  conditions
(e.g.,  riparian vegetation,  geomorphology,  etc.)
create the opportunity for heat to dissipate  back out
of the stream channel (see Spatio-temporal technical
summary).  Some  streams dissipate added heat
effectively and  may  eventually return  to pre-
disturbance conditions, while others will  retain at
least some of the added heat for long distances. The
distance over which the additional heat can persist in
a stream may range from a few meters  to many
kilometers.   Thus,  in  some  circumstances, heat
added to cold headwater streams might not create
thermally  unsuitable   salmonid  habitat   in the
headwaters themselves, but may instead contribute
to unacceptably warm temperatures at some distance
downstream.
   In areas where human activities have  warmed
streams,  those  same   activities  often eliminate
naturally-occurring thermal refugia (from pockets of
cold water in warmer streams to entire watersheds
that contain thermally optimal temperature regimes)
or isolate such refugia from other suitable thermal
                                                 12

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
habitat.  Loss of these important landscape features
reduces the ability of salmonids  to avoid thermal
stress and therefore is apt to decrease survivorship
through  periods  of temperature  extremes  (see
Spatio-temporal    and   Distribution    technical
summaries).

How can we  contend with scientific
uncertainty     when      establishing
temperature criteria?
   Developing  temperature   criteria   to  protect
salmonids is challenging in part because scientific
understanding  of  stream temperature  dynamics,
salmonid biology/ecology, and their interactions is
imperfect.  To maximize the potential for success,
                                         the process of developing criteria must be founded
                                         on  scientific  information  yet  be  flexible  to
                                         accommodate scientific uncertainty. Clearly, there
                                         are limits to our knowledge.  For instance,  our
                                         knowledge regarding  historical  distributions  of
                                         salmonids is  extensive,  but the details  regarding
                                         population sizes and habitat utilization within each
                                         individual basin is  often limited. Data  describing
                                         historical  thermal  regimes  is  scarce  and  our
                                         knowledge of natural distributions  of  coldwater
                                         habitat is imperfect. In addition, we lack the ability
                                         to precisely measure  or predict the interactions
                                         between  thermal  stress and  other  biophysical
                                         stressors in the freshwater environment.  Although
                                         salmonid  distributions  can  be  correlated with
Table 3. Examples of uncertainties and certainties associated with determining criteria for water temperature
standards based on protecting viable populations of salmonids in the Pacific Northwest.
              Uncertainty
                                            Certainty
 How Cold
 How Much,
 When and
 Where?
 Human
 Influence
Relationships between lab-derived temperature
thresholds and requisite temperatures in the field
Maximum allowable temperatures that will
support viable populations
Precise thresholds of harmful temperatures (e.g.,
see Table 2)
Effects of multiple stressors

Mechanisms and dynamics of cumulative effects
on stream temperature dynamics

Patterns of environmental variability required to
support populations

Historical thermal regimes in streams
Measures of historical fish distribution and trends
in fish populations

Data on the alteration of thermal regimes
              Exactly what management actions are necessary to
              protect salmonids
              Maximum levels of degradation that will allow
              salmon to persist
Salmonids can experience physiological stresses where
water temperatures are not optimal
General ranges of water temperatures necessary for
survival and reproduction.

Both lethal and sub-lethal effects affect salmonid
survival
Thermal tolerance in salmonids is affected by other
stresses and vice versa.
Cumulative effects occur and can result in synergistic
temperature changes within in streams subject to
multiple disturbances.
Complex physical habitat structure creates spatially and
temporally diverse coldwater habitats that salmonids
have evolved to exploit
Salmonid survival requires a variety of cold water
temperatures that are well-distributed over space and
time.
Salmonid populations have declined precipitously and
their distributions have been reduced throughout the
region
Thermal regimes have been altered substantially over
time; where altered, streams are generally warmer in
the summer and more spatially homogeneous
The types of activities affecting stream temperature

Salmonid populations require a safety buffer in the face
of a variable environment
                                                     13

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
thermal regimes (see Distribution and Behavioral
technical summaries), the population responses to
changes  in  thermal  regime cannot  be precisely
specified because a multitude of factors influences
salmonid population dynamics.  Further,  we  are
uncertain about the precise number and distribution
of specific coldwater habitat features (e.g., thermal
refugia) needed to restore thermal  regimes and
support viable populations.
   Yet, in spite of these shortcomings, our scientific
knowledge is extensive and  can provide substantial
guidance to the development of temperature criteria.
We know salmonids need cold water. We know that
much larger salmonid populations occupied a much
greater network of northwest streams and rivers only
150 years ago. We know that salmonids evolved to
exploit and rely upon the natural thermal regimes of
Northwest  rivers.   We  have  extensive research
showing how the physical structure of streams and
rivers influences thermal regimes. We know that
many human activities have altered (e.g., typically
warmed) natural thermal regimes.   Some major
sources of uncertainty and certainty are contrasted in
TableS.
   While  uncertainty  constrains our  ability to
precisely qualify and quantify  the risks associated
with  different  management  actions,  scientific
knowledge has defined many causal relations that
exist  between the thermal environment,  biotic
community, and human activities.  This certainty
affords  confidence in  the desired  outcome of
management actions (Tickner et al. 2000).  Given
uncertainty,  we  are challenged to make decisions
based on what we know,  while taking adequate
precautions  to avoid  irretrievable  or irreversible
mistakes. Thus, in moving forward scientists have
recommended a cautious and conservative approach,
especially when actions may affect threatened or
endangered species. For instance, when managing
natural resources in the face of uncertainty, Ludwig
et al.  (1993) offered some  guiding  principles:
consider a range of alternatives and favor actions
that accommodate uncertainties; favor actions that
are informative; probe and experiment; monitor
results;  update assessments and  modify policies
accordingly; and favor actions that are reversible.
Others have recommended that sources of certainty,
uncertainty, and related  assumptions that underlie
temperature criteria  development  be clearly and
completely documented (see Tickner et al. 2000, for
examples).
   Participants  in  this project  are charged with
developing new temperature criteria guidance that
will  provide  sufficient cold water to restore and
sustain viable salmonid populations, yet there is no
way  to determine with certainty exactly how cold
streams must be, how much coldwater habitat is
needed,   and   what  spatial   and   temporal
configurations will be requisite.  However, from the
certainties listed in Table 3, we can infer several
tenets from which criteria robust to uncertainty can
be designed.
1) Human actions have caused thermal degradation
   of aquatic habitats. Although it is only  one of
   many factors, it is an important factor that has
   contributed to declines in salmonid populations.
2) Existing amounts and/or spatial and temporal
   distributions of  essential  habitat,   including
   thermal dynamics thereof, may not be sufficient
   to support viable salmonid populations.
3) Restoration and protection of thermal regimes
   will need to address the amount and distribution
   of thermally suitable water  and its spatial and
   temporal association with other characteristics of
   salmonid habitat.
   While restoration of stream temperature will not
be the only action necessary to restore salmonid
populations,   we   conclude   that  widespread
restoration of  temperature regimes will   favor
recovery of salmonids.  We further conclude that
restoration will require  modification  of human
actions shown to cause thermal degradation and that
temperature criteria will need to define "coldwater
habitat" and provide guidance for determining the
amount and distribution  thereof. Thus, to meet the
goals of this project (Appendix A), we conclude that
the  available  science  suggests  that  salmonid
                                                 14

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
recovery will require more cold water than is
currently available, and that the cold water must be
well distributed and connected.
   As the results of efforts and progress to provide
cold, well-connected, and well-distributed aquatic
habitat are compiled,  and as salmonid populations
change in response to those efforts, criteria may be
revisited and refined.  Yet, in light of  scientific
uncertainties, the threatened and endangered status
of salmonids in the Pacific Northwest and the extent
of human alterations to their habitat, and conclusions
of other scientists (e.g., Ludwig et al. 1993, Tickner
et al. 2000) we believe it is important to  avoid
initially underestimating the thermal requirements of
salmonids.

Implications  for  Water  Temperature
Standards
   In  concept,   a  conventional  approach  to
developing water quality standards (such as often
                      A) Toxic Pollutants
                                                                         High
                               Low
                                          Pollutant Concentration
                      B) Maximum Summertime Water Temperature
                                                                         High
                                                                              •s
                                                                          ::   I
                                                                         Low
                                32   38   42   48   54  60  66   72   78
                                   Summertime Maximum Temperature (F)
                                                                      n
                                                                      84
 Figure 5. Illustrations of hypothetical relationships between expected frequency of in-stream conditions
 (in the absence of human-caused degradation) and associated biological risk.  In these illustrations,
 "biological risk" is determined as the risk of negative impacts on individual fish. Top:  For some water
 quality constituents (such as some toxics), conditions with high biological risk are rare in the absence of
 human-caused degradation.  Thus, a single threshold-based water quality standard can be set such that
 pristine streams are unlikely to violate the standard and biological  risk is avoided (for instance, line "z").
  Bottom: For stream temperature, no such single threshold exists. If a standard is set to avoid substantive
 risk (for instance, line "x"), temperatures in some streams will not comply with the standard even when
 human-caused temperature changes have not occurred.  If a threshold is set so that virtually all "non-
 degraded"  streams will  comply with the standard (for instance, line "y"), fish may be exposed to
 substantial risk. NOTE: These graphs are for illustrative purposes only. No temperature data were used
 to construct temperature frequency curves, nor were laboratory data used to develop risk curves.
                                                 15

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
Trout, and Char Native to the Pacific Northwest
used  for toxic pollutants) attempts to identify  a
threshold value that is low enough to minimize risks
to aquatic biota. For many parameters, the threshold
level  is  above the range of naturally-occurring
conditions in streams. Where this occurs (Figure 5,
top), a conventional threshold standard is effective,
scientifically  defensible,  and relatively easy  to
determine.  For water temperature, however, there
are several reasons why a single threshold approach
to  determining  water  quality  criteria can  be
problematic.
   Stream temperatures associated with increased
biological risk might  occur relatively frequently in
some  stream  reaches  under  natural  conditions
(Figure 5, bottom). Natural stream conditions would
violate temperature thresholds that were predicated
on  eliminating biological risk to individual  fish.
Natural stream temperatures vary across space and
time,  particularly  in large, dynamic landscapes such
as the Pacific Northwest.  Applying a conventional
standard may result in two undesirable consequences
illustrated  by  Figure  6.    First,  human-caused
warming of the best thermal habitat may be allowed
where local stream temperatures are naturally below
the water  quality  criterion.   Second, streams
naturally warmer than the criterion will be identified
as candidates for remediation. Salmonids require a
variety  of cold water temperatures, but  a single
threshold standard does not recognize the diversity
of water temperatures needed by various species and
over space and time.
   Temperature standards are developed primarily to
protect  aquatic biota as the beneficial use most
sensitive   to   water  temperature.  Yet,  water
temperature is the expression of a set of heat transfer
processes  that  are in  turn  influenced  by  the
physiographic,  climatic, and hydrologic variables
acting on a particular stream segment.  Some of
these variables can be altered by human activity and
some  cannot.      Therefore,  in  setting  water
temperature standards to protect aquatic biota both
the biological  and physical  processes must be
considered.  A good standard will  protect high-
quality  habitat and guide restoration of degraded
habitat, while recognizing that some naturally warm
reaches are also part of the aquatic landscape. It will
limit the extent to which the standard may be under-
protective in some locations and overly stringent in
others.
              Warmer
                   I
                   0)
                   9J
                  H
               Colder
                                                           'Naturally" warm waters violate the
                                                                    standard
                         Thermal degradation would not be prevented
                                               Natural Stream Temperature Profile
                       Headwaters
                           Mouth
  Figure 6.  Two difficulties of implementing a single threshold as a temperature standard. First, a single
  numeric standard may fail to prevent degradation of the highest quality (coldest) habitat.  Second, natural
  temperatures may violate the standard thus requiring an attempt to determine whether the violation is
  natural or the result of human-caused temperature changes.
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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
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   The next task of the Technical Workgroup is to
develop conceptual models or frameworks  for a
temperature standard.    In order  to  avoid  the
limitations and achieve the objectives  described
above, the workgroup is analyzing the characteristics
of conventionally derived standards and thinking
about alternate  ways  to  structure a  standard.
Described below are possible alternative factors to
new standards that the workgroup will consider and
evaluate.
   Standard development.  By convention, water
quality   standards   are   designed  to   remove
unacceptable   stresses   on   individual   fish.
Alternatively, a standard could attempt to describe
conditions that would be  necessary to maintain
viable populations.
   Comparison used. The type of comparison used
to determine compliance may  range from single
temperature thresholds to  multiple thresholds or
even  thermal  regimes.    Single  thresholds  are
individual numbers that are compared to measures
of water  temperature.   Multiple  thresholds  are
groups of thresholds that can be compared across
space   and/or   time  to  measures  of  water
temperatures. Regimes are compared using metrics
that describe the spatial or temporal distribution of
temperatures such as mean, range, variance, and
timing.
   Scientific foundation of numeric values. Numeric
values for standards can be determined based on
salmonid   biology   (e.g.,   lethal   or   optimal
temperatures for salmonids), temperature dynamics
of streams (e.g., patterns of heating and cooling), or
a combination  of both.
   Spatial scale of a management unit. For water
quality standards, a management unit is the type of
geographic unit that is deemed either  in or out of
compliance  with the standard.   By  convention,
individual water bodies,  stream reaches, or point
locations  are  used   as  management  units.
Alternatively, a management unit could be defined
as a basin or sub-basin. As long as enough well-
distributed  and connected cold water is present,
these larger geographic units could be in compliance
in spite of naturally warm water at some sites.
   Number of measurements. Compliance can be
determined  based   on  different  measurement
conventions: individual samples, multiple samples,
or a census of stream temperatures.  Each of these
conventions is applicable over both space and time.
For  instance,  a temperature census over time is
accomplished  using  a continuous  recording  data
logger. A census over space might be accomplished
using a  remote  sensing  technique  to  map  the
distribution of water temperatures along  the entire
river.
   Each of the approaches will have a unique set of
opportunities  and challenges.   The flexibility
associated  with  these different approaches  may
result  in  criteria   that   protect  the  thermal
requirements of salmonids while  accommodating
naturally warm waters.  Yet this flexibility could
incrementally  weaken  protection  and  increase
extinction risks.  Thus, these alternatives must be
considered  with  caution.  The task before  the
Technical Workgroup  is to  identify criteria with
characteristics that will best ensure  the thermal
conditions  necessary  to  support viable  salmonid
population  while reducing  the instances  where
naturally warm water is deemed out of compliance.
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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
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References

Dunham, J.B., B.E. Rieman, and J.T. Peterson. In Press (2001).
  Patch-based models to predict species occurrence: lessons
  from salmonid fishes in streams. In Scott, J.M., PJ. Heglund,
  M. Morrison, M. Raphael, J. Haufler, and B. Wall, (editors).
  Predicting species occurrences: issues of scale and accuracy.
  Island Press. Covelo, CA.
EPA.  1976. Quality  criteria for water. U.S.  Environmental
  Protection Agency, Washington, DC. 256 pp.
EPA.  1999. National recommended  water  quality  criteria,
  correction.   EPA   822-Z-99-001.   U.S.   Environmental
  Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
Federal Caucus (Army Corps of Engineers, Bonneville Power
  Administration, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Bureau of Land
  Management,  Bureau  of Reclamation,   Environmental
  Protection Agency, Fish and Wildlife Service, Forest Service,
  and National Marine Fisheries Service). 2000. Conservation
  of Columbia  Basin fish. Final basinwide salmon  recovery
  strategy.  Volume 1. 86 pp. Available from the Bonneville
  Power Administration, Portland, OR.
FEMAT. 1993. Forest ecosystem management: an ecological,
  economic, and social assessment.  Report of the Forest
  Ecosystem Management Assessment Team (a federal agency
  consortium), Portland, OR.
Frissell, C.  A.,  W. J. Liss, C. E. Warren, and M. D. Hurley.
  1986.  A hierarchical  framework  for  stream  habitat
  classification:   viewing streams  in a watershed  context.
  Environmental Management 10: 199-124.
Henjum,  M.G.,  J.R.  Karr,  D.L.  Bottom, D.A.  Perry,  J.C.
  Bednarz,  S.G. Wright, S.A. Beckwitt, andE. Beckwitt. 1994.
  Interim protection for late-successional forests, fisheries, and
  watersheds, national forests east of the Cascade Crest, Oregon
  and Washington. Eastside Forests Scientific Society Panel,
  The Wildlife Society Tech Review 94-2, Bethesda, MD.
Holtby, L.B. 1988. Effects of logging on stream temperatures in
  Carnation Creek, British Columbia, and associated impacts on
  the coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Canadian Journal
  of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 45: 502-515.
Lichatowich,   J.  1997.  Evaluating  salmon  management
  institutions:  the importance  of performance  measures,
  temporal  scales, and production cycles. Pages 69-87 in  DJ.
  Stouder, P.A.  Bisson, and R.J. Naiman, (eds.) Pacific salmon
  and their ecosystems: status and future options. Chapman and
  Hall, New York.
Ludwig, D., R. Hilborn, and C. Walters. 1993. Uncertainty,
  resource exploitation, and conservation: lessons from history.
  Science 260:17-36.
McElhany,  P.,  M.   H.  Ruckelshaus, M.  J.  Ford, T.  C.
  Wainwright,  and E. P. Bjorkstedt. 2000. Viable Salmon
  Populations and the Recovery of Evolutionarily Significant
  Units. NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-42.
  U.S. Department of Commerce. Seattle, WA. 156 pp.
Mclntosh, B.A., J.R. Sedell, R.F. Thurow, S.E. Clarke,  and G.L.
  Chandler. 2000. Historical changes in pool habitats in the
  Columbia River basin. Ecological Applications 10(5): 1478-
  1496.
National Academies of Sciences and Engineering). 1972. Water
  quality criteria 1972:   report to the U.S. Environmental
  Protection Agency. 594 pp.
National Research Council. 1996. Upstream: salmon and society
  in the  Pacific Northwest.   National  Academy  Press,
  Washington, DC. 452 pp.
Oregon Coastal Salmon Restoration Initiative.  1997. State of
  Oregon, Salem.
Poole,  G.  C.,  and  C.  H.  Berman. 2001.  An ecological
  perspective on in-stream temperature: natural heat dynamics
  and  mechanisms  of human-caused thermal degradation.
  Environmental Management 27(6): 787-802.
Quigley,  T.M.  and S.J.  Arbelbide  (Tech. Eds). 1997. An
  assessment of ecosystem components in the interior Columbia
  basin and portions of the Klamath and Great Basins:  volume
  3. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-405. U.S. Forest Service,
  Portland, OR.
Reeves, G.H., L.E. Benda, K.M. Burnett, P.A. Bisson, and J.R.
  Sedell. 1995. A disturbance-based ecosystem approach to
  maintaining and restoring freshwater habitats of evolutionarily
  significant units  of anadromous salmonids  in the Pacific
  Northwest. Pages 334-349 in J.L. Nielsen, editor. Evolution
  and  the  aquatic   ecosystem: defining  unique  units in
  population  conservation.   American  Fisheries   Society
  Symposium 17, Bethesda, MD.
Rieman, B. E. and J.B. Dunham. 2000. Metapopulations and
  salmonids: a synthesis of life history patterns and empirical
  observations. Ecology of Freshwater Fish 9:51-64.
Rhodes, J.J., D.A. McCullough, and F.A. Espinosa, Jr.,  1994. A
  coarse screening process for evaluation of the effects of land
  management  activities  on salmon spawning and  rearing
  habitat in ESA consultations. Columbia River Inter-Tribal
  Fish Commission Technical Report 94-4, Portland, OR.
Sullivan, K., D. Martin,  R.  Cardwell, J. Troll,  and S. Duke.
  2000 An analysis of the effects of temperature on Salmonids
  of the Pacific Northwest  with implication  for selecting
  temperature criteria. Technical Report. Sustainable Systems
  Institute, Portland, OR.
Spence, B.C., G.A. Lomnicky, R.M. Hughes, and R.P. Novitzki.
  1996. An Ecosystem Approach to  Salmonid Conservation.
  TR-4501-96-6057.  ManTech   Environmental  Research
  Services Corp., Corvallis, OR. (Available from the National
  Marine Fisheries Service, Portland, Oregon.)
Tickner,  J., C.  Raffensperger,  and N. Myers. 2000.  The
  precautionary principle in action, a handbook: first  edition.
  Science and Environmental Health Network, Windsor, North
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Wissmar, R.C., J.E.  Smith, B.A. Mclntosh, H.W. Li, G.H.
  Reeves, and J.R. Sedell. 1994. A history of resource  use and
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  Science 68:1-35.
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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
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Appendix A:  Technical Interpretation of the Project Goals
The following project goals were identified by the Policy Workgroup to guide the Technical
Workgroup in development of temperature criteria.
Project Goal Statements (from the Policy Workgroup)
To Develop EPA Regional Temperature Criteria Guidance that:

•  Meets the biological requirements of native salmonid species for survival and recovery pursuant
   to ESA, provides for the restoration and maintenance of surface water temperature to support and
   protect native salmonids pursuant to the CWA, and meets the salmon rebuilding needs of federal
   trust responsibilities with treaty tribes

•  Recognizes the natural temperature potential and limitations of water bodies

•  Can be effectively incorporated by states and tribes in water quality standards programs
The new criteria guidance will be jointly developed by EPA, USFWS, NMFS, States, and Tribes in
the Pacific Northwest:

•  States and tribes will use the new criteria guidance to revise their temperature standards, if
   necessary

•  EPA and the Services will use the new criteria guidance to evaluate state and tribal standard
   revisions
Recovery Target (from the Policy Workgroup)
The  temperature  criteria guidance that would support "sustainable and harvestable levels of
salmonids."
To facilitate communication and understanding between the Policy and Technical Workgroup, the
Technical Workgroup developed the following interpretation of the  project goals based on the
literature reviewed in the five technical summaries described in the Preface to this document.
To meet the project goal, the Technical Workgroup believes it is necessary to develop EPA regional
temperature criteria guidance that:

•  if attained, would provide thermal habitat capable of supporting viable populations1 (including
   a surplus for human harvest) of all native salmonids

•  protects high quality thermal habitat while minimizing circumstances where compliance would
   require remediation beyond a system's thermal potential can be implemented and enforced
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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
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Thus, temperature criteria should describe thermal regimes that promote the following characteristics
of salmonid populations:
    Population size is large enough to:
    •   Maintain genetic and phenotypic diversity2 over the long term
    •   Survive environmental variation3  and catastrophic disturbance
    •   Provide ecological  functions;4
    •   Allow a population surplus that can be harvested by humans
    Population growth rate is positive.5
    Population distributions:
    •   Are extensive within and across sub-basins;6
    •   Allow full utilization of habitat potential7 (temporally and spatially) of sub-basins, which
        allows natural expression of multiple life history strategies8.
    •   Are comprised of well-connected9 sub-populations.
Additionally  Temperature criteria should describe thermal  regimes that promote the following
features of salmonid habitats
•   Natural thermal regimes are established across the maximum extent of the landscape.
•   Habitats are well-connected.
•   Habitat supports  all life history stages and strategies.
   1 The Technical Workgroup defines a "viable population" as a population where the population growth rate, size,
and distribution are as described later in this appendix. See also McElhany et al. (2000) for a more comprehensive
discussion of viable salmon populations.
   2 Small population sizes can result in loss of genetic information from the population gene pool such as run timing,
age structure, size, fecundity, morphology behavior, and molecular genetic characteristics.

   3 "Environmental variation" includes the natural annual variations that can be summarized statistically.  This also
includes foreseeable cyclic patterns of climatic change.

   4 Salmon are a  keystone species in  ecosystems of the PNW.  For example, nutrients from carcasses are vital in
providing nutrients to riparian vegetation and for the feeding and growth of freshwater biological communities including
juvenile salmonids.

   5 Most salmon populations that are  currently listed under the ESA have population growth rates (e.g., spawner-
spawner ratios) that are extremely depressed and static or are low and declining. Populations can recover only if these
population growth  rates have ratios of >1.0.  A population is only fishable and sustainable if there are more adults
returning to the spawning grounds to spawn than are needed to replace the numbers of the parent generation.  Also, an
excess is needed to  compensate for natural fluctuations in environmental conditions throughout the geographic range of
the salmon life cycle (including ocean conditions) that lead to periodic fluctuations in survival.
     This allows source sub-populations to be maintained so that they contribute to the stability of the overall population by
providing centers of high productivity and contributing a source of strays to colonize other habitats within the sub-basin.
     Habitat potential is an inherent characteristic of a watershed that has a high level of ecosystem integrity.  Elements of the
watershed that define its potential include its potential natural vegetation, climate, lithology, geomorphology, biota, hydrology,  and
soils. These elements interactively set up instream habitat conditions (channel geomorphology, hydrologic regime, water temperature
regime, riparian vegetation community types  and dynamics, channel substrate characteristics).  Given various levels of anthropogenic
disturbance to the watershed, alterations to  the watershed and/or stream channels and riparian areas can shift the processes that

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Scientific Issues Related to Temperature Criteria for Salmon,
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produce in-stream habitats so that they disfavor salmonids. This can come about through alterations in the regimes for large wood
input, water temperature, water routing, nutrient input, and sediment.  Water temperature regime can be altered by the combined
effects of shifts in the woody debris input, riparian vegetation condition (current state of the vegetation, given all possible states that
are defined by its potential), sediment delivery to the channel (affecting intergravel flow, channel morphology, and pool depth and
frequency).

     A life history strategy is one of the means by which a life cycle can be structured so that life functions are realized. Functions
include growth, survival, development, mating, reproduction, incubation, emergence, rearing. When a watershed exhibits a state of
high integrity, the ability of the watershed to develop high quality aquatic habitats is great and multiple life history strategies become
available for salmonids to complete these functions. Watershed and habitat degradation tend to eliminate many life history strategies
(e.g., those strategies that depend upon mainstem rivers, low elevation habitats, floodplain or off-channel habitats).

     When sub-populations are well connected, they are capable of interbreeding. This  allows better maintenance of genetic integrity
in the gene pool because the genes are maintained by a larger, more integrated population. Small, isolated populations with few or
poorly connected sub-populations tend to be unstable over time and gradually disappear.  They  are not resistant to extreme
environmental conditions because the entire population can be affected by a single event or disturbance.  Populations comprised of
well-distributed and connected sub-populations have greater resistance to perturbation because there is lesser likelihood that major
portions of the population will be affected by a single event. Likewise, if some life history strategies involve spawning at a different
time or in a different location, greater population stability results from this "hedging"  against extinction.
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