Release of Draft MOVES2009
Megan Beardsley
For MOVES Review Workgroup
April 28, 2009
EPA-420-A-09-004
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Draft MOVES2009
Released Draft MOVES2009 April 8, 2009
A draft model
- No official use requiring Draft MOVES2009
- Cannot be used for SIPs or conformity analyses
- Does not include all data or features planned for official
MOVES2009
Known problems
- Errata sheet posted, will be updated
- Developing trouble-shooting advice
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Draft MOVES2009 Results
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New Local Area Results
Used inputs from states' SIP analysis with
MOBILES
- Received MOBILES inputs and results from states
- Converted to MOVES inputs, ran the model
- Runs just for a single county
- Shared results and approach with states
- Not official results!
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S. 50.00 -
Draft Local Comparisons: NOx
Milwaukee NOx
MOVES
LD
MOVES
LD
MOBILES
MOVES Reduction = 39%
MOBILES Reduction = 50%
MOVES
MOBILES
July 2005
July 2012
Queens County NOx
MOBILE
LD
MOVES reduction = 61%
MOBILES reduction = 60%
MOVES
MOBILE
July 2008
July 2018
Atlanta NOx
300-
250-
200-
100-
50-
n-
MOVES
H
(I
LD
MOBILE
MOVES reduction = 27%
MOBILES reduction = 33%
MOVES
jllllllltH
MOBILE
July 2008
July 2012
Salt Lake County NOx
MOVES
MOBILES
MOVES reduction = 41%
MOBILES reduction = 48%
MOVES
MOBILES
July 2008
July 2015
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Draft Local Comparisons: VOC
Milwaukee VOC
Atlanta VOC
40.00 -i
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
n nn
MOVES
HD
LD
MOBILES
MOVES Reduction = 51%
MOBILES Reduction = 42%
MOVES
MOBILES
MOVES
LD
MOVES VOC reduction = 30%
MOBILES VOC reduction = 24%
MOBILE
July 2005
July 2012
July 2008
July 2012
Queens County HC
Salt Lake County HC
MOVES
HD
MOBILES
HD
LD
MOVES HC reduction = 54%
MOBILES HC reduction = 46% 30-
25-
S1 20-
0
MOVES MOBILES | ^
•••••III
10-
5-
MOVES
MOVES HC reduction = 40%
MOBILES HC reduction = 31 %
MOBILES
MOVES
July 2008
July 2018
July 2008
July 2015
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Draft Local Comparisons: PM2.5
Milwaukee PM2.5
MOVES
LD
MOBILES
MOVES Reduction = 30%
MOBILES Reduction = 31%
MOVES
MOBILES
January 2005
January 2012
Queens County PM2.5
MOVES
LD
MOBILES
LD
MOVES PM2.5 reduction = 50%
MOBILES PM2.5 reduction = 63%
MOVES
MOBILES
January 2008
January 2018
Atlanta PM2.5
MOVES
LD
MOVES PM2.5 reduction = 28%
MOBILES PM2.5 reduction = 29%
MOVES
January 2008
Salt Lake County PM2.5
January 2012
1.40 -
1.20 -
1.00 -
0.80 -
060 -
0.40 -
0.20 -
MOVES
LD
MOBILES
LD
MOVES PM2.5 reduction = 51%
MOBILES PM2.5 reduction = 43%
MOVES
MOBILES
2008
2015
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What It Implies
Higher NOx and PM emissions mean mobile sources have
bigger role in attainment
Percent reduction from base year is key to attainment
analysis
- PM2.5 shows higher overall emissions and higher % reductions
• Effect on attainment demonstrations could be positive
- NOx shows higher overall emissions but lower % reduction
• Harder to show attainment
• Future NOx control measures will have a bigger impact
States may need to redo some motor vehicle emissions
budgets to meet conformity requirements with MOVES
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What Draft MOVES says about I/M
• Analyzed I/M reductions in Atlanta and Milwaukee
to identify I/M credit differences between MOVES
and MOBILES
• For MOVES we saw from 20-70% less I/M credit
than MOBILES
• The range depends on calendar year, program
elements and other local factors
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Why I/M benefits are lower in MOVES
• Big factor: change in response to OBD w/o I/M
- MOBILES assumed 10% response outside warranty w/o I/M
- Since then CRC did comprehensive survey of MIL response in
non-l/M areas, found response was closer to 90%
• Also, MOBILE6 lower in-use deterioration trend
continues with fleet turnover in MOVES
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Draft MOVES2009 Review
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Review of Draft MOVES2009
Public Review
- Likely focus on usability & policy questions
FACA Workgroup Review
- Focus on technical correctness
- Also appreciate feedback on results and usability
Peer Review
- Under EPA peer review guidelines
- Focus on technical correctness of technical reports
Coordinating Resarch Council Review (CRC E-68a)
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Comment Period
• "EPA requests comments by July 2009 in order to
give the Agency sufficient time to review
comments and make necessary changes in time for
the end-of-year release deadline. All comments
should be submitted via e-mail to:
mobile@epa.gov."
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Technical Reports
Internal drafts due May 8
Public release late May/early June
Six major reports planned
- Emissions Inputs: light-duty vehicles
- Emissions Inputs: heavy-duty vehicles
- Fuel Inputs
- Adjustments: Temperature and other factors
- Fleet and Activity (update to 2004 report)
- Software Design Reference Manual (available now)
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CRC Review of MOVES
• Contracted to Air Improvement Resource
• Review of methods
• Review of results
- MOVES/M6 comparisons
- Fuel effects (delayed)
- Sensitivity analysis
- New Technology Vehicles
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Additional Support Materials
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Additional Support
Guidance
Trainings
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Future Guidance Documents
EPA expects to release several guidance
documents that will help with the transition for
final MOVES
- MOVES Technical Guidance for SIPs and conformity
- Project Level Conformity Guidance for PM
- MOVES SIP and Conformity Policy Guidance
Will release draft guidance for comments in next
few months
Final guidance documents will be available when
Official MOVES2009 is released
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Trainings
EPA Regional Staff (March)
Intl. Emission Inv. Conference (April)
Scheduled trainings with FHWA:
- Anchorage, Salt Lake City, Chicago, Denver, Phoenix,
Portland
Additional trainings planned:
- Boston, Hartford, New York City, Detroit, Austin, Frankfort, DC,
Jacksonville, Pennsylvania, West Virginia
Considering adding special topic Webinars
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Official MOVES2009
Official MOVES2009 planned for release at end of 2009
- Timing essential to allow states to use in next round of SIPs
• due 2012 and 2013
Will be official emissions model for on-road vehicles outside
of California
Use will be required for:
- State Implementation Plans (SIPs)
- Regional conformity analysis
• Following regional conformity grace period of 3 to 24 months
- Project level conformity analysis for PM and CO
• Following project level conformity grace period which could be shorter
than regional conformity grace period
- NEPA analysis (e.g., air toxics)
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Major Additions Planned for
MOVES2009
Bug fixes
Add SO2, NH3, NO2 & NO
IM benefits for starts
Account for HD Excess
NOx & Reflash
Add motorcycles
Incorporate road grade for
project level
On-the-fly fuel adjustments
"No CAAA" tool
Allow input of DailyTraffic
Volumes
External looping tool
JAVA 6 & MySQL updates
Improve performance
Improve interface
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Major Additions Under
Consideration
Better Science
- Further speciation of PM
• NO3, metals, SVOCs
- Improve off-cycle emissions
- Update fuel effects based on
recent testing
- New ramp and other driving
cycles
- Add Draft NONROAD
- Add many additional air
toxics
Better Tools
- Start & Evap lookup tables
- Improved reports and post-
processing
- Audit tools
- Simplified quick tool based
on MOVES results
Long list of other ideas
Expect more as suggested
by users
Time is short!
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What do we plan for future versions
of MOVES
Next round of updated activity
Next round of updated emission rates
Final nonroad capability
Unique emissions for alt. fueled vehicles
- CNG, LPG, H2
Well-to-Pump emissions
Improved uncertainty inputs
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Workgroup Feedback
We need your comments and ideas for improving
MOVES
- Please try installing & using MOVES
Especially look to this workgroup for technical
feedback
- Would like written comments on technical reports by end of
June
- Discuss at next FACA meeting, mid-July
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Visit the MOVES website:
www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves
I 3 MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) | Modeling and Inventories | US
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U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY —
Mobile Source
Emissions Past,
Present, and Future:
MOBILE Model (On-
road Vehicles)
NONROflD Model
(Nanroad Engines,
Etjuipinent, and
Vehicles)
NMIM (NationalMobile
Inventory Model)
MOVES (Motor Vehicle
Emission Simulator)
Modeling and Inventories
Additions | Contact Us Search:
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g., and Research
MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator)
To keep pace with new analysis needSj modeling approaches, and data, the EPA's Office of Transportation
and Air Quality (OTAQ) is developing a modeling system termed the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator
(MOVES). This new system will estimate emissions for on-road and nonroad sources, cover a broad range
of pollutants, and allow multiple scale analysis, from fine-scale analysis to national inventory estimation.
| When fully implemented MOVES will serve as the replacement for MOBILE6 and NONROAD, The new system
II not necessarily be a single piece of software, but instead will encompass the necessary tools,
I algorithms, underlying data and guidance necessary for use in all official analyses associated with
regulatory development, compliance with statutory requirements, and national/regional inventory
projections, This project was previously known as the New Generation Mobile Source Emissions Model
| (NGM).
For further information on MOVES, email
For updates and news on EPA mobile source emission models, subscribe to the EPA-MOBILENEWS
listserver: Subscription Information.
For further information or assistance regarding this web page, contact:
ASD Information Line, phone: (734) 214-4636 or email: asdinfo@epa.gov
£ Internet
Software, technical documentation, conference and meeting
presentations, and other helpful background materials
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