&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection-
Agency
Office of Transportation
and Air Quality
EPA420-R-06-015
October 2006
Summary and Analysis of the
2006 Nonroad Diesel Fuel
Pre-Compliance Reports
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EPA420-R-06-015
October 2006
Summary and Analysis of the 2006
Nonroad Diesel Fuel Pre-Compliance Reports
Assessment and Standards Division
and
Transportation and Regional Programs Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NOTICE
This Technical Report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions.
It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available.
The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate an exchange of
technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.
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Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary i
II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview 1
III. Nonroad Pre-Compliance Reporting Requirements 3
IV. NRLM Summary Statistics 4
A. Nationwide Analysis 4
1. Refineries and Importers - Numbers and Volumes 4
2. Projected Credit Generation and Use 6
3. Project Scope and Timing 8
4. Small Refiner Options 9
B. PADD Analysis 10
1. PADD 1 13
2. PADD 2 14
3. PADD 3 15
4. PADD 4 16
5. PADD 5 17
C. Comparison of 2005 and 2006 NRLM Pre-Compliance Reports 18
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I. Executive Summary
I. Executive Summary
Any refiner or importer planning to produce or import nonroad, locomotive, or
marine (NRLM) diesel fuel containing 15 ppm sulfur or less after June 1, 2010 is required to
submit to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ("EPA" or "the Agency") annual pre-
compliance reports. Reports are due from 2005 through 2011 by June 1 of each year under
the nonroad diesel sulfur regulations. This report summarizes the results of refiners' June
2006 pre-compliance reports.
Refiners' nonroad pre-compliance reports must contain estimates of total (highway +
NRLM) 15 ppm diesel fuel and total (highway + NRLM) 500 ppm diesel fuel produced or
imported from June 2010 through December 2014. For those refiners and importers planning
on participating in the credit trading program, the reports must contain a projection of how
many credits will be generated or used by each refinery or importer. The pre-compliance
reports must also contain information outlining each refinery's timeline for complying with
the 15 ppm sulfur standard and provide information regarding engineering plans (e.g., design
and construction), and capital commitments for making the necessary modifications to
produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel.
The 2006 nonroad pre-compliance reports showed that: 1)117 refineries are planning
to produce 15 ppm diesel fuel by 2014; 2) 23 refiners are either undecided as to their plans,
or are choosing to remain in the high sulfur diesel market; 3) refiners have projected an
increase in diesel production from 2010 through 2014; 4) refiners are taking advantage of the
flexibilities offered by the regulations (23 refineries plan to generate early credits in 2006 and
2007, 9 refineries plan to generate early credits in 2009 and 2010, small refiners are utilizing
all of the options available to them); 5) all diesel fuel volumes in all PADDs are projected to
grow or remain constant; and 6) refiners project an increase in expected production and
importation of total highway + NRLM diesel fuel ("total diesel fuel") beginning June 1,
2010, compared to the 2005 nonroad pre-compliance reports.
Many refiners have developed firmer plans to produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel by
June 1, 2010 than what they indicated in their 2005 pre-compliance reports, although these
plans are still subject to change. EPA expects that next year's nonroad pre-compliance
reports will contain more definite information on refiners' plans to produce 15 ppm NRLM
diesel fuel by June 1,2010.
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II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
The Nonroad Diesel final rule (69 FR 38958, June 29, 2004) contains a two-
step approach to reducing the sulfur content of nonroad, locomotive, and marine
(NRLM) diesel fuel from uncontrolled levels down to 15 ppm. Beginning June 1,
2007, refiners and importers are required to produce or import NRLM diesel fuel with
a maximum sulfur content of 500 ppm. Beginning June 1, 2010, refiners and
importers are required to produce or import nonroad (NR) diesel fuel with a
maximum sulfur content of 15 ppm. Beginning June 1, 2012, refiners and importers
are required to produce or import locomotive and marine (LM) diesel fuel with a
maximum sulfur content of 15 ppm.
This rule includes provisions for refiners and importers to generate credits for
early NRLM diesel sulfur reduction efforts. "High sulfur" credits may be generated
for early production of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel between June 1, 2006 and June 1,
2007. Similarly, "500 ppm" credits may be generated for early production of 15 ppm
NRLM diesel fuel between June 1, 2009 and June 1, 2010. "High sulfur" credits
could be used to comply with the 500 ppm NRLM standard beginning June 1, 2007,
while "500 ppm" credits could be used to comply with the 15 ppm NR standard
beginning June 1, 2010 and the 15 ppm LM standard that begins June 1, 2012. For
both high sulfur credits and 500 ppm credits, one credit is equivalent to one gallon of
diesel fuel that meets the respective standard earlier than required. In addition, "high
sulfur" credits can be converted into "500 ppm" credits for use in 2010 and later.
NRLM sulfur credits may be transferred nationwide. No credit trading area
restrictions exist such as those found in the Highway Diesel rulemaking.
Small Refiner Flexibilities
Additional compliance flexibilities are provided for small refiners in the
nonroad diesel sulfur regulations. The definition of an NRLM small refiner is similar
to the definition under the Tier 2/Gasoline Sulfur and Highway Diesel rules. A small
refiner is defined as a refiner who: 1) processes NRLM diesel fuel from crude oil; 2)
employs no more than 1,500 people corporate-wide, based on the average number of
employees for all pay periods from January 1, 2002 to January 1, 2003; and, 3) has a
corporate crude oil capacity less than or equal to 155,000 barrels per calendar day
(bpcd) for 2002.
The small refiner relief options provide additional time for compliance and,
for small refiners that choose to comply earlier than required with the NRLM
requirements, the option of either generating diesel fuel sulfur credits or receiving a
limited relaxation of their Tier 2/Gasoline Sulfur standards. These small refiner
options are described in more detail below.
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II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
Option 1 - Delay 5 00 ppm NRLMproduction
This option allows approved small refiners to delay compliance with the
NRLM diesel fuel sulfur standards as follows. Instead of a 500 ppm NRLM
compliance date of June 1, 2007, small refiners have a compliance date of June 1,
2010. Production of high sulfur (greater than 500 ppm) NRLM diesel fuel from a
small refiner's refinery between June 1, 2007 and June 1, 2010 is limited to 105
percent of the refinery's average NRLM diesel fuel production from 2003 through
2005.
Option 2 - Delay 15 ppm NRLM production
This option allows approved small refiners to delay compliance with the
NRLM diesel fuel sulfur standards as follows. Instead of separate 15 ppm NR and
LM compliance dates of June 1, 2010 and June 1, 2012, respectively, small refiners
have a single 15 ppm NRLM compliance date of June 1, 2014. Production of 500
ppm sulfur NRLM diesel fuel from a small refiner's refinery between June 1, 2010
and June 1, 2014 is limited to 105 percent of the refinery's average NRLM diesel fuel
production from 2006 through 2008.
Option 3 - NRLM Credit Option
An approved small refiner may choose to use the NRLM Credit Option in
combination with the NRLM Delay Option. The NRLM Credit Option allows
approved small refiners the opportunity to generate nonroad diesel sulfur credits for
early production of compliant NRLM diesel fuel. These credits can be banked for
future use or traded to another refiner. Small refiners could generate "High Sulfur"
credits for producing any volume of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel prior to June 1,
2010. Small refiners could also generate "500 ppm" credits for producing any
volume of 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel prior to June 1, 2014.
Option 4 - NRLM Diesel/Gasoline Compliance Option
This option is available to small refiners that produce greater than 95 percent
of their NRLM diesel fuel at the 15 ppm sulfur standard by June 1, 2006 and elect not
to use the NRLM Credit Option described above. Production of 15 ppm sulfur
NRLM diesel fuel from a refinery using this option must be at least 85 percent of the
refinery's 2003 through 2005 baseline NRLM production. Refiners choosing this
option will receive a modest relaxation in their interim gasoline sulfur standards
beginning January 1, 2004. Specifically, the applicable small refiner annual average
and per-gallon cap would be increased by 20 percent for the duration of the interim
program. The interim program is through 2010 if the refiner elected to extend the
duration of its interim gasoline sulfur standards by producing 15 ppm highway diesel
fuel by June 1, 2006, and through 2007 if the refiner did not produce 15 ppm highway
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II. Nonroad Diesel Program Overview
diesel fuel by June 1, 2006. However, in no case may the per-gallon gasoline sulfur
cap exceed 450 ppm.
Other Flexibilities
Unlike the Highway Diesel rulemaking, the nonroad diesel sulfur regulations do
not provide any specific flexibilities for refineries located in the Geographic Phase-in
Area (GPA). Refiners located in the Rocky Mountain States (ID, MT, ND,
WY, UT, CO and NM) must comply with the 500 ppm and 15 ppm NRLM sulfur
standards within the compliance deadlines discussed above. NRLM diesel fuel in
rural areas of the state of Alaska (a GPA state in the gasoline sulfur rulemaking) is
exempt from the 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel sulfur standard beginning June 1, 2007,
but must meet the 15 ppm sulfur standard beginning June 1, 20101. This fuel is
regulated under a special rule for Alaska which was finalized in June 2006 (71 FR
32450, June 6, 2006).
Transmix processors distill off-specification interface mixtures of petroleum
products from pipeline systems into gasoline and distillate fuel and are considered
refiners by EPA. Their simple refinery configuration does not make it cost effective
for them install and operate a hydrotreater to reduce distillate fuel sulfur content. As
a result, they have been provided with additional flexibility to comply with the diesel
sulfur standards. Transmix processors may choose to continue to produce all of their
highway diesel fuel to the 500 ppm sulfur standard until 2010. They may further
choose to continue to produce all of their NRLM diesel fuel as high sulfur diesel fuel
until June 1, 2010, all of their NRLM diesel fuel to meet the 500 ppm sulfur standard
until June 1, 2014, and all of their LM diesel fuel to meet a 500 ppm sulfur limit
indefinitely.
III. Nonroad Pre-Compliance Reporting Requirements
The Nonroad Rule requires that any refiner or importer planning to produce or
import 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel after June 1, 2010 must submit annual pre-
compliance reports to EPA. The first pre-compliance report was due on June 1, 2005
and subsequent reports are due annually through 2011, or until the production of 15
ppm sulfur NR and LM diesel fuel commences, whichever is later.
The pre-compliance reports must contain the following information:
1. Any changes in the refiner's or importer's basic company or facility
information since registration.
2. Estimates of the average daily volumes (gallons) of each sulfur grade of
highway and NRLM diesel fuel produced or imported at each refinery
Rural areas are defined as areas of Alaska not served by the federal aid highway system (FAHS)
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III. Nonroad Pre-Compliance Reporting Requirements
(facility). The volume estimates must include both fuel produced from crude
oil and other sources for the periods of June 1, 2010 through December 31,
2010, calendar years 2011-2013, January 1, 2014 through May 31, 2014, and
June 1, 2014 through December 31, 2014.
3. For refiners or importers expecting to participate in the NRLM credit
program, estimates of the number of credits generated and/or used during the
periods above.
4. Information on project schedule by known or projected completion date (by
quarter) for each stage of the project. For example strategic planning, front-
end engineering, detailed engineering and permitting, procurement and
construction, and commissioning and startup.
5. Basic information regarding the selected technology pathway for compliance
(e.g. conventional hydrotreating versus other technologies, revamp versus
grassroots, etc.).
6. Whether capital investments have been made or are projected to be made.
7. An update of the progress in each of these areas.
We recognize that the pre-compliance reports contain preliminary information
and that final decisions on desulfurization plans may not have been made in all cases
as of the reporting deadline. Accordingly, the information in this summary and
analysis is based on the best available refinery information as of June 1, 2006. The
information presented here will be updated with more current analyses as subsequent
pre-compliance reports are received annually in 2007 through 2011.
IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
A. Nationwide Analysis
1. Refineries and Importers - Numbers and Volumes
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), 140 refineries
reported producing either high or low sulfur (or both) distillate fuels in 2003. This
reported production includes data from four refiner/importers that are located outside of
the continental United States (i.e., in the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Eastern
Canada) whose production is targeted to the U.S. market. We received 2006 pre-
compliance reports for 124 refineries, all of which produced high and/or low sulfur diesel
fuel in 2003. The 16 refineries which did not send pre-compliance reports may be
planning to produce high sulfur distillate fuel for the heating oil market, or may be
planning to sell their high sulfur distillate fuel to other refineries that can desulfurize it.
Refiners indicated that, for most of their refineries, they have made decisions
whether or not to produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel. Table 1 shows that a total of 117
refineries reported they anticipate producing 15 and/or 500 ppm diesel fuel beginning
June 1, 2010. The remaining 7 refineries that sent pre-compliance reports said they either
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III. Nonroad Pre-Compliance Reporting Requirements
plan to produce only high sulfur distillate for the heating oil market, or are still deciding
whether to produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel.
Table 1.
U.S. Aggregated Report Information
Highway and NRLM Diesel Fuel Refinery Statistics 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
2010
117
104
2
11
2011
117
104
2
11
2012
117
106
1
10
2013
117
111
1
5
2014a2
117
111
1
5
2014b
117
117
0
0
The 2006 nonroad pre-compliance reports indicated that production of 15 ppm
and 500 ppm total diesel fuel beginning June 1, 2010 is projected to be 4.15 million
bbls/day, as shown in Table 2 below. The reported information does not allow for any
distinction between highway and NRLM volume. However, the 2005 highway diesel
pre-compliance reports projected that production of 15 ppm and 500 ppm highway diesel
fuel from January 1, 2010 through May 31, 2010 would be 3.26 million bbls/day. Thus,
by comparing the 2006 reports with the 2005 reports, the reporting refiners appear to be
planning to produce approximately 890 thousand bbls/day total 15 ppm and 500 ppm
NRLM diesel fuel beginning June 1, 2010.
Table 2 and Figure 1 also illustrate that production of total 15 ppm diesel fuel is
projected to increase by 250 thousand bbls/day from 2010 to 2014. However, this
projected increase is offset by a projected decrease in 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel
production of 110 thousand bbls/day from 2010 to 2014. Half of the projected decrease
in 500 ppm production occurs by June 1, 2012 as some refiners begin producing 15 ppm
sulfur LM diesel fuel. The remaining 500 ppm diesel fuel production ends by May 31,
2014, when the flexibilities for small refiners and NRLM credit use end.
As mentioned previously, 140 refineries reported to EIA that they produced low
and/or high sulfur distillate fuel in 2003. Twenty three of these refineries either reported
that they have no plans at present to produce 15 ppm diesel fuel, or did not send an
NRLM pre-compliance report to EPA in 2006. In 2003, these 23 refineries produced a
total of 97 thousand bbls/day of diesel fuel containing less than 500 ppm sulfur, and 174
thousand bbls/day of distillate fuel containing more than 500 ppm sulfur. We cannot tell
at this time if or when these refineries might choose to produce 15 ppm diesel fuel, or
whether they will simply choose to continue to serve the heating oil market indefinitely.
2 Data from the pre-compliance reports is divided into two sections for 2014 throughout this report. In all
tables and figures, data for the first five months of 2014 is labeled 2014a, and data for the last seven months
of 2014 is labeled 2014b.
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
Table 2.
U.S. Aggregated Report Information
Diesel Fuel Volume 2010-2014
Year
Total 15 ppm (highway +NRLM), bbls/day
Total 500 ppm NRLM, bbls/day
15+500 ppm total (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
2010
4,038,441
110,529
4,148,970
2011
4,100,439
110,568
4,211,008
2012
4,201,618
70,067
4,271,685
2013
4,240,251
54,864
4,295,115
2014a
4,243,655
54,864
4,298,519
2014b
4,290,045
0
4,290,0453
A ^nn nnn
Q) A nnn nnn
LJ_
"m ^ c;nn nnn
(0
0
Qo nnn nnn
_i <8 o c;nn nnn
i •»
•= o nnn nnn
>,-°
5 -i c;nn nnn
.c
.21 -i nnn nnn
15 cnn nnn
o
n
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014a 2014b
Year
D 15 ppm sulfur • 500 ppm sulfur
Figure 1. Projected (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel Production by Type, 2010-2014
2. Projected Credit Generation and Use
Table 3 shows total reported nonroad diesel sulfur credits generated and used for
each year of the nonroad diesel sulfur credit program. High sulfur credits are shown in
equivalent bbls/day for the last 7 months of 2006 (refiners could not begin generating
high sulfur NRLM credits until June 1, 2006), the full calendar years 2007 through 2009,
and the first 5 months of 2010. 500 ppm credits are shown for the last 7 months of 2009,
the full calendar years 2010 through 2013, and the first 5 months of 2014. Twenty-three
3 Total 15 + 500 ppm production decreases slightly during the last 7 months of 2014 because some
refineries plan to shut down for maintenance during this time.
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
refineries indicated they plan to generate 263 thousand bbls/day of high sulfur credits
during the high sulfur early credit generation period from June 1, 2006 through May 31,
2007, including three refineries owned by small refiners who plan to continue generating
4 thousand bbls/day of high sulfur credits after May 31, 2007. Nine refineries indicated
that they plan to use 70 thousand bbls/day of high sulfur credits in 2007, including seven
refineries that plan to continue using 46 thousand bbls/day of high sulfur credits through
May 31,2010.
Nine refineries indicated they plan to generate 65 thousand bbls/day of 500 ppm
credits during the credit generation period from June 1, 2009 through May 31, 2010,
including three refineries owned by small refiners who plan to continue generating 7
thousand bbls/day of 500 ppm credits through December 31, 2009. One refinery
indicated that it plans to use 3 thousand bbls/day of 500 ppm credits from June 1, 2010
through May 31,2012.
Table 3.
U.S. Aggregated Report Information
Nonroad Diesel Fuel Credits 2006-2014
Year |
# refineries generating high sulfur credits
# refineries using high sulfur credits i
High sulfur credit generation, bbls/day
High sulfur credit usage, bbls/day
Year 2
# refineries generating 500 ppm credits
# refineries using 500 ppm credits |
500 ppm credit generation, bbls/day 65,
500 ppm credit usage, bbls/day i
1 2006
23
263,079
009 2010
9 9
1
340 30,923
3,000
2007
23
C)
105,415
70,371
2011
3
1
6,758
3,000
2008
3
7
3,557
46,063
2012
3
1
6,771
1,500
2009
3
7
3,557
46,047
2013
3
0
6,943
0
2010
2
7
3,092
46,047
2014
0
0
Figures 2 and 3 illustrate cumulative projected generation and usage of high sulfur
credits and 500 ppm credits by year. Both figures show that based on current plans,
refiners should generate more than enough of each type of credit to meet the demand for
each type of credit.
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
4,5
4,0
<2 3,5
=5 3,0
0 2,5
i 2,0
= 1,5
s 1,0
5
00 1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
0
> — •=
2006 2007
1
)=a
i-
—
2008 2009 2010
Year
O cumulative HSC generated • cumulative HSC used
Figure 2. Total U.S. High Sulfur Credits
1,400
1,200
| 1,000
1 800
§ 600
| 400
200
0
^=
E?
^
•
5
/=
3
^
I/
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
• cumulative 500 ppm credits generated • cumulative 500 ppm credits used
Figure 3. Total U.S. 500 ppm Credits
3. Project Scope and Timing
In addition to providing diesel fuel volume and credit projections, refineries must
also include information outlining both their timeline for compliance with the 15 ppm
sulfur standard and their engineering plans (e.g., design and construction) in their pre-
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
compliance reports. We requested that refineries report their progress according to the
following five stages: 1) strategic planning, 2) planning and front-end engineering, 3)
detailed engineering and permitting, 4) procurement and construction, and 5)
commissioning and start-up. In last year's nonroad pre-compliance reports, most
refineries indicated they were either just starting to develop their plans to produce 15 ppm
NRLM diesel, or did not plan to produce any more 15 or 500 ppm diesel than indicated in
their highway pre-compliance reports.
In the 2006 NRLM pre-compliance reports, it was indicated that there are plans to
install new desulfurization capacity at 21 refineries specifically to produce 15 ppm
NRLM diesel fuel by June 1, 2010. All of these refineries are generally in the early
stages of their projects to produce 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel. They reported that they
have completed their strategic planning, and are just beginning their front-end
engineering design work.
All 21 refineries indicated that they would either be revamping existing
hydrotreating or hydrocracking units, or installing new hydrotreating or hydrocracking
units. Thirteen of these refineries indicated specific project scopes to produce 15 ppm
NRLM diesel. Of those thirteen refineries, five are planning to install a new
desulfurization unit, four are planning to revamp an existing desulfurization unit, and four
refineries are planning to both install at least one new desulfurization unit and revamp at
least one existing desulfurization unit. The other eight refineries did not report detailed
project information.
4. Small Refiner Options
As discussed in greater detail above, the Nonroad Diesel fuel regulations contain
four options which provide qualified small refiners with flexibilities regarding production
of 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel. Option 1 allows a refinery owned by an approved small
refiner to delay production of 500 ppm sulfur NRLM diesel fuel until June 1, 2010.
Option 1 was chosen by six refineries. These six refineries produced 35 thousand
bbls/day high sulfur distillate fuel in 2003.
Option 2 allows a refinery owned by an approved small refiner to delay
production of 15 ppm NRLM diesel fuel until June 1, 2014. Option 2 was chosen by six
refineries. These six refineries produced 24 thousand bbls/day high sulfur distillate fuel
in 2003. (As Options 1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive, there are some small refiners
that chose both Options 1 and 2.)
Option 3 allows a small refiner utilizing Option 1 to generate credits for any 500
ppm sulfur NRLM diesel fuel produced between June 1, 2006 and May 31, 2010, and/or
allows a small refiner utilizing Option 2 to generate credits for any 15 ppm sulfur NRLM
diesel fuel produced between June 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013. Option 3 was
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
chosen by six refineries. These six refineries produced 24 thousand bbls/day high sulfur
distillate fuel in 2003.
Lastly, Option 4 allows a refinery owned by a small refiner the ability to increase
its gasoline sulfur standards by 20 percent, provided that the refinery begins producing 15
ppm NRLM on June 1, 2006 and the refinery's 15 ppm NRLM production is at least 85
percent of the refinery's NRLM baseline production. Option 4 was chosen by five
refineries. These five refineries produced 48 thousand bbls/day high sulfur distillate fuel
in 2003.
The volumes reported by refineries regarding the small refiner options, and the
number of refineries by option chosen, are shown in Table 4 below.
Table 4.
Intended Small Refiner Compliance Options by Number of Refineries and
High Sulfur Distillate Fuel Production Capacity
Option
1.
2.
3.
4.
Description
Delay 500 ppm NRLM Production
Delay 1 5 ppm NRLM Production
NRLM Credit Option
NRLM Diesel/Gasoline Compliance Option
Number of
Refineries
6
6
6
5
2003 High Sulfur Distillate
Fuel Production
(thousand bbls/day)
35
24
24
48
B. PADD Analysis
This section presents information specific to each PADD. Tables 5 and 6 show,
by PADD, the number of refineries producing 15 and/or 500 ppm diesel fuel for 2010
(from June 1 through December 31) and 2014 (from June 1 through December 31). The
total number of refineries remains constant at 117 from 2010 to 2014. In 2010, thirteen
refineries are still using flexibilities in the rules (producing 500 ppm LM diesel fuel,
producing 500 ppm NR diesel fuel using NRLM credits, small refiner flexibilities) to
produce some or all 500 ppm diesel fuel. However, by 2014 all of these refineries will be
producing only 15 ppm diesel fuel.
Tables 7 and 8 show, by PADD, anticipated production rates of 15 ppm and 500
ppm total diesel fuel for 2010 (from June 1 through December 31) and 2014 (from June 1
through December 31), and Figure 4 illustrates the average anticipated production of 15
ppm and 500 ppm total diesel fuel by PADD from June 1, 2010 through December 31,
2014. Tables 7 and 8 show that the projected total diesel fuel production in PADDs 3 and
5 increases by 115 thousand bbls/day, and 22 thousand bbls/day, respectively, while
projected total diesel fuel production remains nearly constant in PADDs 1, 2, and 4.
10
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
More detailed information for each PADD is shown below in Tables 9 through
13.
Table 5.
Projected Number of Highway and NRLM Diesel Fuel Refineries by PADD for 2010
PADD
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
1
13
12
0
1
2
25
22
0
3
3
42
37
2
3
4
14
12
0
2
5
23
21
0
2
Total U.S.
117
104
2
11
Table 6.
Projected Number of Highway and NRLM Diesel Fuel Refineries by PADD for 2014b
PADD
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
1
13
13
0
0
2
25
25
0
0
3
42
42
0
0
4
14
14
0
0
5
23
23
0
0
Total U.S.
117
117
0
0
Table 7.
Projected Volumes of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2010
PADD
Total 15 ppm (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
Total 500 ppm (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
1 5 + 500 ppm total (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
1
461,843
71
461,915
2
1,001,381
9,936
1,011,317
3
1,920,020
78,920
1,998,940
4
166,439
14,054
180,492
5
488,758
7,548
496,306
Total
U.S.
4,038,441
110,529
4,148,970
Table 8.
Projected Volumes of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2014b
PADD
Total 15 ppm (highway +NRLM), bbls/day
Total 500 ppm (highway +NRLM), bbls/day
1 5 + 500 ppm total (highway + NRLM), bbls/day
1
465,822
0
465,822
2
1,006,079
0
1,006,079
3
2,113,326
0
2,113,326
4
186,615
0
186,615
5
518,202
0
518,202
Total
U.S.
4,290,045
0
4,290,045
11
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
0)
8!
0)
Q
re
-
+ -g
o>
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2010 2011
2012 2013
Year
2014a 2014b
Figure 4. Projected (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel Production by PADD, 2010-
2014
12
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
1. PADD 1
Reported totals for all PADD 1 refineries and importers are summarized below in
Table 9. Table 9 shows that for 2010, 13 refineries anticipate producing 462 thousand
bbls/day of 15 ppm + 500 ppm sulfur total diesel fuel. Twelve refineries reported that
they intend to produce 100 percent of their diesel fuel at 15 ppm or less of sulfur, and one
refinery reported they intend to produce a small amount of 500 ppm NRLM diesel fuel
through May, 2014. Table 9 also shows that total diesel fuel production in PADD 1 is
projected to increase slightly from 2010 to 2014.
Table 9
PADD 1 Diesel Fuel Statistics 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 1 5/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15+500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
13
12
0
1
461,843
71
461,915
2011
13
12
0
1
461,811
71
461,883
2012
13
12
0
1
465,805
71
465,877
2013
13
12
0
1
465,822
71
465,894
2014a
13
12
0
1
465,520
71
465,591
2014b
13
13
0
0
465,822
0
465,822
13
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
2. PADD 2
The reported totals for all PADD 2 refineries are summarized below in Table 10.
Table 10 shows that for 2010, 25 refineries anticipate producing 1.01 million bbls/day of
15 ppm + 500 ppm sulfur total diesel fuel. Twenty two refineries reported that they
intend to produce 100 percent of their diesel fuel at or below 15 ppm sulfur, and three
refineries reported that they intend to produce a small amount of 500 ppm sulfur diesel
fuel. Table 10 also shows that total diesel fuel production in PADD 2 is projected to
remain essentially constant from 2010 through 2014.
Table 10.
PADD 2 Diesel Fuel Statistics 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15+500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
25
22
0
3
1,001,381
9,936
1,011,317
2011
25
22
0
3
1,007,568
9,936
1,017,505
2012
25
22
0
3
1,007,234
9,634
1,016,867
2013
25
23
0
2
1,008,865
9,420
1,018,285
2014a
25
23
0
2
1,009,852
9,420
1,019,272
2014b
25
25
0
0
1,006,079
0
1,006,079
14
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
3. PADD 3
Reported totals for all PADD 3 refineries are summarized below in Table 11.
Table 11 shows that 42 refineries anticipate producing 2.0 million bbls/day of 15 ppm
and 500 ppm sulfur total diesel fuel in 2010. Thirty seven refineries reported they intend
to produce 100 percent of their diesel fuel at or below 15 ppm, and five refineries
reported that they intend to produce some amount of 500 ppm diesel fuel.
Table 11.
PADD 3 Diesel Fuel Statistics 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15+500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
42
37
2
3
1,920,020
78,920
1,998,940
2011
42
37
2
3
1,958,460
78,920
2,037,380
2012
42
38
1
3
2,042,068
52,656
2,094,724
2013
42
40
1
1
2,066,399
44,825
2,111,224
2014a
42
40
1
1
2,068,501
44,825
2,113,326
2014b
42
42
0
0
2,113,326
0
2,113,326
15
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
4. PADD 4
Reported totals for all PADD 4 refineries are summarized below in Table 12.
Table 12 shows that 14 refineries anticipate producing 180 thousand bbls/day 15 ppm and
500 ppm sulfur total diesel fuel in 2010. Twelve refineries reported that they intend to
produce 100 percent of their diesel fuel with 15 ppm or less of sulfur and two refineries
reported that they intend to produce some amount of 500 ppm diesel fuel. Table 12 also
shows that the projected total diesel fuel production in PADD 4 remains relatively
constant from 2010 through 2014.
Table 12.
PADD 4 Diesel Fuel Statistics 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15+500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
14
12
0
2
166,439
14,054
180,492
2011
14
12
0
2
168,842
14,093
182,934
2012
14
12
0
2
175,753
7,158
182,911
2013
14
14
0
0
186,486
0
186,486
2014a
14
14
0
0
187,104
0
187,104
2014b
14
14
0
0
186,615
0
186,615
16
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
5. PADD 54
Reported totals for all refineries in PADD 5 are summarized below in Table 13.
Table 13 shows that 23 refineries anticipate producing 496 thousand bbls/day 15 ppm and
500 ppm sulfur total diesel fuel in 2010. Twenty one of these refineries indicated that
they expect to produce 100 percent of their diesel fuel with 15 ppm sulfur or less, and two
refineries reported that they intend to produce some amount of 500 ppm diesel fuel. Table
13 also shows that the projected total diesel fuel production in PADD 5 increases by 22
thousand bbls/day from 2010 through 2014.
Table 13.
PADD 5 Diesel Fuel Statistics 2010-2014
Year
# refineries producing diesel fuel
# refineries at 100% 15 ppm
# refineries at 100% 500 ppm
# refineries with 15/500 ppm mix
Total 1 5 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 500 ppm (bbls/day)
Total 15+500 ppm (bbls/day)
2010
23
21
0
2
488,758
7,548
496,306
2011
23
21
0
2
503,758
7,548
511,306
2012
23
22
0
1
510,758
548
511,306
2013
23
22
0
1
512,678
548
513,226
2014a
23
22
0
1
512,678
548
513,226
2014b
23
23
0
0
518,202
0
518,202
4 Alaska refineries are included in this analysis
17
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
C. Comparison of 2005 and 2006 NRLM Pre-Compliance Reports
Total production of 15 ppm and 500 ppm diesel fuel increased significantly in the
2006 NRLM pre-compliance reports, compared to the 2005 NRLM pre-compliance
reports. Table 14 shows the projected volumes of 15 ppm and 500 ppm diesel fuel from
the 2005 and 2006 NRLM pre-compliance reports for 2010 (in bbls/day, from June 1 to
December 31). Total reported production of diesel fuel in the 2006 reports was 472
thousand bbls/day greater than total reported production in the 2005 reports. Several
refineries in each PADD reported increases in anticipated production, most significantly
inPADDs 1,2 and 3.
Table 14.
Projected Volumes of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2010
PADD
200 5 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total (15 + 500) ppm , bbls/day
2006 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total (15 + 500) ppm , bbls/day
Increase in reported production, bbls/day
1
300,822
71
300,893
461,843
71
461,915
161,021
2
866,782
1,083
867,865
1,001,381
9,936
1,011,317
143,452
3
1,700,533
173,265
1,873,798
1,920,020
78,920
1,998,940
125,143
4
149,667
11,510
161,176
166,439
14,054
180,492
19,316
5
470,176
3,100
473,276
488,758
7,548
496,306
23,030
Total
U.S.
3,487,980
189,029
3,677,008
4,038,441
110,529
4,148,970
471,962
18
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IV. NRLM Summary Statistics
Table 15 shows the projected volumes of 15 and 500 ppm diesel fuel from the
2005 and 2006 NRLM pre-compliance reports for 2014 (from January 1 to May 31).
Total reported production of diesel fuel in the 2006 reports was 676 thousand bbls/day
greater than the total reported production in the 2005 reports. Several refineries in each
PADD reported increases in anticipated production, most significantly in PADDs 1, 2 and
3. This includes one PADD 3 NRLM refinery which reported in 2005 that it was not
planning to produce any 15 ppm diesel fuel after May, 2012, but is now planning to begin
producing 15 ppm diesel fuel in 2012.
Table 15.
Projected Volumes of (Highway + NRLM) Diesel Fuel by PADD for 2014a
PADD
200 5 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total (15 + 500) ppm , bbls/day
2006 NRLM reports
Total 1 5 ppm, bbls/day
Total 500 ppm, bbls/day
Total (15 + 500) ppm , bbls/day
Increase in reported production, bbls/day
1
364,589
71
364,661
465,520
71
465,591
100,931
2
875,424
0
875,424
1,009,852
9,420
1,019,272
143,848
3
1,709,876
27,461
1,737,338
2,068,501
44,825
2,113,326
375,989
4
158,722
767
159,489
187,104
0
187,104
27,615
5
485,176
100
485,276
512,678
548
513,226
27,950
Total
U.S.
3,593,787
28,399
3,622,187
4,243,655
54,864
4,298,519
676,333
19
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V. Appendix
Appendix - List of Acronyms
bbls/day
bpcd
EIA
EPA (or, "the Agency")
FR
LM
NR
NRLM
PADD
ppm
ULSD
barrels per day
barrels per calendar day
Energy Information Administration
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Federal Register
Locomotive and Marine
Nonroad
Nonroad, Locomotive, and Marine
Petroleum Administrative Districts for Defense
parts-per-million
Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel
20
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