AIR QUALITY AGREEMENT 2000 Progress Report ------- > Printed on paper that contains at least 30 percent postconsumer fiber. ------- AIR QUALITY AGREEMENT 2000 Progress Report ------- Your Comments on This Report Would Be Appreciated The International Joint Commission (IJC) is responsible for inviting public comment on Air Quality Agreement Progress Reports and for distributing comments received on request. Written comments on this report should be sent to one of the following offices on or before February 28, 2001: Secretary, Canadian Section International Joint Commission 234 Laurier Avenue, West 22nd Floor Ottawa, Ontario KIP 6K6 Fax: (613) 993-5583 Email: lengellef@ottawa.ijc.org Secretary, United States Section International Joint Commission 1250 23rd Street, NW, Suite 100 Washington, DC 20440 Fax: (202)736-9015 Email: bevacquaf@washington.ijc.org ------- Contents Section I Introduction 1 Section II Progress and Commitments 2 Sulfur Dioxide Reductions 2 Nitrogen Oxides Reductions 3 Monitoring of Emissions 4 Prevention of Air Quality Deterioration and Visibility Protection 6 Notification, Assessment, and Mitigation of Significant Transboundary Air Pollution ....7 Section III Additional Air Quality Programs 9 Cooperation on Ground-Level Ozone and Particulate Matter 9 Domestic Programs to Address Ozone and Particulate Matter 9 Other Cooperative Air Quality Efforts 15 Section IV Scientific Information Exchange 17 Emissions Inventories 17 Acid Deposition Monitoring 19 Ground-Level Ozone Monitoring and Mapping 21 Particulate Matter Monitoring, Data Analysis, and Modeling 23 Aquatic Effects Research and Monitoring 26 Forest Effects 28 Effects on Materials 31 Health Effects 32 Section V Conclusion 33 Appendix United States-Canada Air Quality Committee 35 ------- Figures Figure 1. U.S. SO2 Emissions From 263 Phase I Units 2 Figure 2. Saskatchewan-North Dakota PM Monitoring Network 8 Figure 3. Canada-U.S. SO2 Emissions, 1980-2010 17 Figure 4. Canada-U.S. SO2 Emissions By Sector (1998) 17 Figure 5. Canada-U.S. NOX Emissions By Sector (1998) 18 Figure 6. Canada-U.S. NOX Emissions, 1990-2010 18 Figure 7. Canada-U.S. VOC Emissions, 1980-2010 18 Figure 8. Canada-U.S. VOC Emissions By Sector (1998) 19 Figure 9. 1980-1984 Wet Sulfate Deposition 20 Figure 10. 1980-1984 Wet Nitrate Deposition 20 Figure 11. 1995-1998 Wet Sulfate Deposition 20 Figure 12. 1995-1998 Wet Nitrate Deposition 20 Figure 13. Ozone Concentrations Over Eastern North America, 1996-1998 21 Figure 14. Distribution of 41- Highest Daily 8h Maximum Ozone (ppb) for Regional Sites, 1994-1996 (Median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th Percentiles) 22 Figure 15. Variations in the Composition of PM in Two Canadian Cities 24 Figure 16. Canadian PM2 5 Monitoring Sites Within 200 Km of U.S. Border 25 Figure 17. Status of PM25 Monitoring Deployment (United States) 25 ------- Acronyms and Abbreviations AIRMoN Atmospheric Integrated Research Monitoring Network AIRS Aerometric Information Retrieval System AQC Air Quality Committee AQI Air Quality Index ARNEWS Acid Rain National Early Warning System AURAMS A Unified Regional Air Quality Modeling System BAT best available techniques BC British Columbia CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments CAPMoN Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network CASTNet Clean Air Status and Trends Network GEM continuous emission monitoring or monitors CEPA Canadian Environmental Protection Act CFS Canadian Forest Service CL critical loads CO carbon monoxide CO2 carbon dioxide CMAQ Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model CUTA Canadian Urban Transit Association E-GRID Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency eq equivalence FHM Forest Health Monitoring FIGCP Forest Indicators of Global Change Project FRM Federal Reference Method g/bhp-hr grams per brake horsepower hour g/mi grams per mile ------- IMPROVE Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments km kilometers kt kilotonnes LRTAP Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Protocol mm millimeter MOU Memorandum of Understanding MRP Materials Research Program MWe megawatts electric NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NADP/NTN National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network NAMP North American Maple Project NAMS National Air Monitoring Stations NAPS National Air Pollution Surveillance NARSTO North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone NCPTT National Center for the Preservation of Technology and Training NEG/ECP New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers NERAQC Northeast Regional Air Quality Committee NESCAUM Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management NH3 ammonia NMHC nonmethane hydrocarbons NO nitrogen oxide NOX nitrogen oxides NO2 nitrogen dioxide OTC Ozone Transport Commission PAMS Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations PM particulate matter PM10 particulate matter less than or equal to 10 microns PM2 5 particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 microns ppb parts per billion ppm parts per million PSD Prevention of Significant Deterioration IV ------- REMSAD RESEF SIP SLAMS SMB SO2 SPM SUV TRS USFS voc Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition Quebec Forest Intensive Monitoring Network State Implementation Plan State and Local Air Monitoring Stations simple mass-balance sulfur dioxide special purpose monitors sport utility vehicle total reduced sulfur U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service volatile organic compound cubic micrometers ------- ------- Section I Introduction This is the fifth Progress Report highlighting the commitments Canada and the United States made under the 1991 Air Quality Agreement to address trans- boundary air pollution. The report details the continued progress of both governments in addressing acid rain. The report also focuses on the most recent develop- ments of both governments in expanding cooperative efforts to reduce ground- level ozone and particulate matter (PM) pollution, which have significant impacts on human health. The bilateral Canada-U.S. negotiations held this year to develop an ozone annex to the Agreement signal the importance both gov- ernments are placing on this effort. In this report, Canada and the United States cite significant emissions reductions of major pollu- tants that cause acid rain— sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX). Canada's national cap of 3.2 million tonnes for SO2 emissions will become fully operational in 2000. Currently, Canada's SO2 emissions are at 2.7 million tonnes, and they are projected to remain below the cap in the future. As the United States ended Phase I of the SO2 program and began Phase II in 2000, Phase I utility units reported SO2 emissions of 4.9 million tons, which was 28 percent below allowable levels for 1999 and a reduction of more than 50% from 1980 levels. Full implementation in 2010 will result in a 10-million ton reduction of SO2 emissions, which will be approximately 40% below 1980 levels. Canada reduced its year 2000 stationary source NOX emissions by more than 100,000 tonnes below the forecast level of 970,000 tonnes. In the United States, NOX emissions from power generation are expected to be reduced by more than 2 million tons below forecast levels. NOX emissions from all source categories are expected to be 2 million tons below 1980 levels. The report also pro- vides information on progress since 1998 in meeting other key com- mitments in the Agreement. Updates are included on emissions forecasts, acid deposition monitoring, scientific research, and the air quality programs of both governments. In 1997, the Canadian and U.S. environmental ministers signed a Joint Plan of Action for Addressing Transboundary Air Pollution on ground- level ozone and PM, and in 1998 the ministers issued a follow-up Joint Plan Report. The 2000 Progress Report considers coop- erative efforts in data analyses, modeling, monitoring, and information sharing leading to development of an ozone annex to the Air Quality Agreement and existing and planned efforts to develop a joint work plan for transboundary PM. NOTE: American spelling is used throughout. Future reports will alternate the use of Canadian and American spelling. Dollars are in $U.S. unless otherwise indicated. ------- Section II Progress and Commitments This section focuses on Canadian and U.S. progress in meeting commitments under Annex I of the Air Quality Agreement. Sulfur Dioxide Reductions • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions reduction in seven easternmost provinces to 2.3 million tonnes1 by 1994. • Maintenance of 2.3 million-tonne annual cap for eastern Canada through December 1999- • Permanent national cap for SO2 emissions of 3-2 mil- lion tonnes by 2000. Canada's commitment to reduce acid rain remains a priority in air pollution management. In 1998, total Canadian SO2 emissions were less than 2.7 million tonnes, which is below the national cap of 3-2 million tonnes. Emissions in the seven easternmost provinces were 1.8 million tonnes below the eastern Canada cap of 2.3 million tonnes. Forecasts2 from the 1999 Annual Progress Report on the Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy for Post-2000 indicate that emissions will remain below all applicable caps well into the future. Significant reductions of SO2 and/or nitrogen oxides (NOX) could result from reduction initiatives that come into effect after 1998. These initiatives were not included in the forecasts. Examples of these initiatives include new SO2 targets under the Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy, reductions under Phase 3 of the Federal Smog Management Plan and provincial or territorial smog ini- tiatives, and Canada-Wide Standards for PM2 5 (PM less than or equal to 2.5 microns) and ozone. The permanent national cap of 3-2 million tonnes per year by 2000 is currently being implemented through the Eastern Canadian Acid Rain Program using bilateral agreements between each respective province and the Federal Government. This program, which will be fully implemented in 2000, is being succeeded by the Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy for Post-2000. The strategy's next step, described in Section III, p. 10, tar- gets sulfur, striving for SO2 emissions reductions that achieve critical loads (CL)3 for acidity throughout the country. UNITED STATES COMMITMENT • SO2 emissions reduction of 10 million tons4 from 1980 levels by 2000, taking into account credits ("allowances") earned for reductions from 1995 to 1999- • Permanent national cap of 8.95 million tons of SO2 per year for electric utilities by the year 2010. • National SO2 emissions cap of 5-6 million tons for industrial sources beginning in 1995- As the U.S. Acid Rain Program entered Phase II in January 2000, data showed that SO2 emissions in 1999 were 670,000 tons lower than 1998 levels as sources prepared to meet their Phase II reduction obligations. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) annual review reported SO2 emissions from Phase I affected units were 4.9 million tons, or 28 percent below the 1999 allowable emissions level for SO2. In 1999, the total number of participating units was 398. Of that number, 263 were the highest-emitting units, and 135 were units electing to participate early. U.S. SO, Emissions From 263 Phase I Units •5-12 = 8 E 6 2 80 9.4 9.3 8.7 Allocated Emissions 7.4 7.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 iini Actual Emissions 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Figure I 'One tonne is equal to 1.1 short tons. ^Forecast emissions are interim emissions estimates using 1998 values reported by the provinces and territories. The forecasts are projected with growth factors calculated from total provincial changes in emissions found in the National Emissions Inventory and Projections Task Group Consensus National Base Case Forecast, 1996. 'Critical loads are estimates of the maximum pollutant loadings that environmental resources can absorb on a sustained basis without experi- encing measurable degradation. 4One (short) ton is equal to 0.9 tonnes. ------- By the end of five years of Phase I implementation, affected units showed an overall reduction in SO2 emis- sions of more than 50% from 1980 levels. In Phase II, the program expands from 400 fossil-fired electric gen- erating units in 25 states to more than 2,000 units in 48 states. All major power plants in the contiguous 48 states are now covered by the Acid Rain Program. Reductions in Phase I were greater than required in almost every affected state, with major reductions in the highest-emitting areas (i.e., the Midwest). Sources achieved 100% compliance with regional emission reductions in every year of Phase I. Full implementation of the program in 2010 will achieve a 10-million-ton reduction of SO2 emissions, about 40% below 1980 levels. During Phase I, under the SO2 Allowance Trading Program—the centerpiece of the Acid Rain Program— allowance market activity steadily increased among all participants, contributing to the lower than expected costs for reducing emissions. Through the SO2 Allowance Trading Program, all affected utility units are allocated a specific number of emissions allowances, with one allowance authorizing the emission of one ton of SO2. Allowances are tradable, and utilities may buy, sell, or bank them for future use. On an annual basis, a source must hold allowances that equal or exceed its annual SO2 emissions. Industrial SO2 emissions from stationary sources that are not commercial or residential continue to remain below the 5-6-million-ton cap. These emissions are pro- jected to remain below the cap for at least the next 10 years. Should emissions from these sources exceed the cap, EPA is authorized to establish regulations to reduce emissions to below 5-6 million tons. Nitrogen Oxides Reductions ANADIAN COMMITMENT • By 2000, reduce stationary source emissions 100,000 tonnes below the forecast level of 970,000 tonnes. • By 1995, develop further annual national emissions reduction requirements from stationary sources to be achieved by 2000 and/or 2005- • Implement a NOX control program for mobile sources. NOX emissions have been reduced by more than 100,000 tonnes below the forecast level of 970,000 tonnes at power plants, major combustion sources, and metal smelting operations. Canada is developing programs to further reduce NOX emissions. (For additional details, see Section III, pp. 10-11.) All provinces are currently discussing plans and progress jointly with the Federal Government to reduce stationary source emissions of NOX. For example, Ontario's Anti-Smog Action Plan sets an air quality goal to reduce the average number of ozone exceedance hours by 75% by the year 2015- This translates into a 45% reduction of NOX emissions and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Ontario from 1990 levels. In June 2000, all federal, provincial, and territorial govern- ments agreed to a Canada-Wide Standard for ozone of 65 parts per billion (ppb) to be achieved by 2010. Joint initial actions for reducing NOX and VOC emissions, necessary to meet the standard for ozone, were agreed on and will target industry sectors, including pulp and paper and electric power, that are among the large sta- tionary source emitters of NOX emissions. (For addi- tional details, see Section III, p. 9.) Regulations have steered on-road engines, which con- tribute approximately 35% of Canada's total NOX emis- sions, toward newer, cleaner technology and reduced emissions. Canadian on-road vehicle emissions stan- dards are harmonized with those of the United States. (For additional details, see Section III, pp. 10-11.) UNITED STATES COMMITMENT • By 2000, reduce total annual emissions of NOX by 2 million tons. • Implement stationary source control program for electric utility boilers. • Implement mobile source control program. By the end of 2000, EPA's Acid Rain Program and the mobile source control program are expected to reduce stationary and mobile source NOX emissions by more than 2 million tons below 1980 levels, exceeding the mandate under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). From 1996 to 1999, NOX emissions from coal-fired utility boilers were approximately 400,000 tons per year ------- below projections for what emissions would have been without the Acid Rain Program. In 1999, actual NOX emissions were slightly below 1998 levels and decreased by approximately 424,000 tons (32 percent) compared to 1980 levels. Beginning in 2000, NOX emissions from electric utility units are expected to be reduced by an additional 1.7 million tons each year. EPA also has undertaken efforts to reduce NOX emis- sions under the ground-level ozone provisions of the CAAA. In September 1998, EPA finalized a rule to establish mandatory NOX emission budgets for 22 east- ern states.5 By 2007, this rule-making is expected to result in approximately 1 million tons of additional NOX emission reductions each summer beyond those achieved by acid rain and mobile source control pro- grams. In a separate but related rule-making, EPA grant- ed petitions filed under Section 126 of the CAA, identifying specific NOX sources that contribute to ozone in the petitioning states. As a result, beginning in 2003, a total of 392 facilities in 12 states must reduce annual emissions by about 500,000 tons from expected 2007 levels, or about half the emission reductions under the 22-state program. In other actions, EPA is working with nine northeast- ern states to implement a trading program for NOX in the Ozone Transport Region. In 1999, the initial year of operation, the first eight participating states reduced NOX emissions by more than 50% from 1990 levels (20% below allowable levels) due to the trading pro- gram. In December 1999, under continuing implementa- tion of CAAA requirements for mobile sources, EPA announced more protective tailpipe emissions standards for all passenger vehicles, including sport utility vehicles, vans, and pickup trucks. Simultaneously, EPA announced more stringent standards for sulfur in regular gasoline. The standards will ensure the effectiveness of low-emission control technologies in vehicles and are the clean-air equivalent of removing 164 million cars from the road. The new standards will require passenger vehicles to be 77% to 95% cleaner than those on the road today, decreasing gasoline's sulfur content by 90% to 30 parts per million (ppm). In addition, in June 2000, EPA proposed a major program to significantly reduce emissions from heavy- duty engines and vehicles. This comprehensive 50-state control program proposal for heavy-duty engine and vehicle standards and highway diesel fuel sulfur control treats the heavy-duty vehicle and its fuel as a single sys- tem. The proposed rule will cap the sulfur content in diesel fuel sold to consumers at 15 ppm. Diesel fuel's sulfur content is currently about 500 ppm. The proposal for tailpipe emission reductions reduces NOX to 0.2 grams per brake horsepower hour (g/bhp-hr) and emissions of PM to .01 g/bhp-hr. (For more informa- tion on NOX mobile source efforts, see Section III, pp. 13-14). Monitoring of Emissions i/'^ilMi- SiH JIL •••jfc^jp':JjltriL' jifril'Ml ^-'^ y['^j|||L& y.iii|SvS..S'S'.;''^^ • By 1995, estimate emissions of NOX and SO2 from new electric utility units and existing electric utility units greater than 25 megawatts electric (MWe) using a method of comparable effectiveness to Continuous Emissions Monitors (CEMs). • By 1995, investigate feasibility of using CEMs. • Work toward comparably effective methods of emis- sion estimation for SO2 and NOX emissions from other major stationary sources. An important tool, CEMs provide information that can improve emissions estimation methodologies. CEMs also facilitate automatic emissions monitoring and reporting, and establish a "common currency" in emissions trading regimes. Permitting of CEMs is under provincial jurisdiction, and the type of in situ, extractive, or dilution CEM sys- tem used is site-specific to each application. By 1995, CEM installation in Canada's utility sector was wide- spread, with SO2 CEMs installed in more than 87% of the coal generation capacity (67 units) and more than 52% of the oil generation capacity (22 units). With respect to NOX CEMs, 72% of the oil generation capac- ity (14 units), more than 78% of the gas generation capacity (10 units), and more than 85% of the coal gen- eration capacity (43 units) had CEMs installed. By 2000, this situation had not changed significantly because almost all base-loaded fossil steam plants with high emission rates had operating CEMs. Few flow monitors are used, and not all systems have the accuracy and reliability required for emissions trading purposes. The fact that Canada has no interprovincial emissions 5EPAs final action was subject to legal challenge by a number of parties. In March 2000, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit issued a 2-to-l ruling in favor of EPA on all major issues associated with the NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call. The court remanded issues— including those relating to Wisconsin, Georgia, and Missouri—to EPA. In June 2000, the court ordered SIP revisions addressing requirements upheld by the Court due by October 30, 2000. ------- trading regime, however, provides little incentive for improvement for accuracy and reliability. Monitoring systems across sectors are designed with less stringency and more flexibility. For example, exhaust gas volume and mass emission rates are often determined by estima- tion from several choices of standard calculation methods. Vancouver Regional District, the data from installed NOX and SO2 CEMs are used in the emissions inventory. CEMs have been installed in the nonutility sector to monitor emissions of either SO2 or NOX in various jurisdictions across the country. In Quebec, CEMs are required on acid plants used to control SO2 in the base metal sector. Acid plants account for approximately 60% of the province's nonutility SO2 emissions. In Ontario, CEMs for SO2, NOX, and other pollutants are recommended for municipal solid waste, biomedical waste incinerators and base metal smelters. Other requirements for CEMs are for pulp and paper recov- ery boilers that monitor concentra- tions of total reduced sulfur (TRS) and hydrogen sulfide, and wood waste boilers to monitor temperature. Because of recent publication of an emissions guideline for cement kilns, several cement plants are installing CEM systems for emissions measure- ments and process control functions. Most new gas turbine cogeneration systems have very low emissions of all pollutants and are able to accurately estimate NOX emissions using other methods, such as predictive monitor- ing or periodic sampling. Ontario's major SO2 emitters (i.e., INCO, Falconbridge, and Ontario Hydro) are required to undertake annual audits to verify SO2 emis- sions. Alberta requires CEMs for vari- ous nonutility sources, including sour gas plants6, pulp and paper, petroleum refining, fertiliz- er, chemical, oil sands, waste incinerators, and wood waste nonutility generators. In 1999, Alberta published new CEM performance guidelines that will soon be applicable to most industrial sources. British Columbia, through a decentralized provincewide permitting sys- tem, requires installation and operation of CEMs for SO2 and NOX on a case-by-case basis. In the Greater SO2 and NOX UNITED STATES COM • By 1995, new electric utility units and existing units greater than 25 MWe operate CEM systems. By 1995, all required CEMs were installed by utilities under the Acid Rain Program. They continue to provide some of the most accurate and complete data ever col- lected by EPA. All coal-fired units must use CEMs to measure concentrations of SO2 and NOX, as well as volumetric flow, to determine hourly mass emissions of SO2 and NOX. Those natural gas and oil-fired units that do not use CEMs use fuel flow meters and frequent fuel sampling and analysis to determine mass SO2 emissions for conservative emission factors. These units also use CEMs with volumetric flow to deter- mine NOX mass emissions. Statistics reflect high accuracy and availability of all CEMs at Phase I and Phase II units. In 1999, relative accura- cy standards were met by 96.2, 94.5, and 99-4 percent of the SO2, NOX, and volumetric flow CEMs, respectively. In 1999, the availability of these data exceeded 98 percent. By the end of 2000, nearly 100 percent of the affect- ed sources will be reporting hourly emissions and heat input data electron- ically, allowing immediate quality assurance analyses by EPA's Emissions Tracking System, feedback to utilities, and verification of quarterly data com- piled from hourly data on SO2, NOX, and carbon dioxide (CO2.) Quarterly emissions reports for every affected unit are available to the public on the Internet at www.epa.gov/acidrain. CEMs data provide the foundation for the SO2 Allowance Trading Program as well as the NOX Budget Trading Program. These data are used to determine compliance with both the SO2 and NOX reduction programs. CEM machine. 5Sour gas is raw natural gas with a relatively high concentration of sulfur compounds such as hydrogen sulfide. ------- Prevention of Air Quality Deterioration and Visibility Protection CANADIAN COMMITMENT • By 1995, develop and implement means (comparable to those implemented in the United States) to pre- vent air quality deterioration and to ensure visibility protection for sources that could cause significant transboundary air pollution. Canada uses an approach to new sources (e.g., addressing major new and existing sources, examining various reduction measures, and applying similar tech- nologies) that it considers comparable to the U.S. approach. Since Canada is a federation, the federal and provincial/territorial, and some municipal governments each share in the responsibility of air quality manage- ment and pollution prevention. The report, Canadian Mechanisms to Prevent the Deterioration of Air Quality: An Analysis of Requirements for New Sources of Air Pollution and Modifications to Existing Sources, provides an overview of the requirements at each level of govern- ment across the country. In addition to existing measures, the new Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) of September 1999 focuses on pollution prevention as the preferred approach to environmental protection. The Canadian government will use the new act to reduce the impacts of toxic substances. Implementation of similar princi- ples—pollution prevention, continuous improvement, and keeping clean areas clean—is also part of the Canada-Wide Standards. The latter principle recognizes that polluting "up to a limit" is not acceptable and that the best strategy to avoid future problems is keeping clean areas clean. Continuous improvement applies in areas with ambient levels below the levels of the stan- dards but still above the levels associated with observable health effects. Jurisdictions are encouraged to take reme- dial and preventative actions to reduce emissions from anthropogenic sources to the extent practicable. Federal, provincial, and territorial governments will work with stakeholders during the next several years to establish implementation plans and programs for PM2 5 and ozone Canada-Wide Standards that apply pollution prevention and best management practices. These prac- tices could include ensuring that new facilities and activities incorporate the best available, economically feasible technologies to reduce PM and ozone levels. They could also include reviewing new activities that might contribute to PM and ozone level increases. UNITED STATES COMMITMEN' • Maintain means for preventing significant deteriora- tion and protecting visibility as required under the CAA for sources that could cause significant trans- boundary air pollution. The U.S. Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) Program has three key goals: (1) protecting pub- lic health from any adverse effects that might occur— even at air pollution levels lower than the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS); (2) preserv- ing, protecting, and enhancing the air quality in Class I areas such as large national parks and wilderness areas; and (3) ensuring that economic growth occurs in har- mony with the preservation of existing clean air sources. The PSD Program sets maximum air quality degrada- tion limits to ensure that air quality in many areas of the country remains better than levels mandated by the NAAQS. The program also requires implementation of the best available control technology for all new sources. In April 1999, EPA issued the final regional haze reg- ulations that expand the scope of 1980 visibility rules. Good visibility day in Great Smokey Mountains. Visual range is 100 miles. Bad visibility day at same location. Visual range is 20 miles. Source: National Park Service ------- The regulations will improve visibility at specially pro- tected Class I national parks and wilderness areas, addressing visibility impairment caused by numerous sources located over broad regions. The program estab- lishes the basis from which states can work together to develop implementation plans designed to achieve "rea- sonable progress" toward the national visibility goal of no human-caused impairment in the 156 mandatory Class I federal areas nationwide. States are required to establish goals to improve visi- bility on the 20% worst days and to allow no degrada- tion on the 20% best days for each Class I area in the state. In establishing any progress goal, states must ana- lyze the progress rate for the next 10- to 15-year imple- mentation period that would, if maintained, achieve natural visibility conditions by 2064. States will need to show reasonable progress. In addition to identifying goals, state plans must include the following: (1) emis- sions reduction measures to meet these targets in combi- nation with other state measures; (2) requirements for Best Available Retrofit Technology on certain large, existing sources or an alternative emissions trading pro- gram; and (3) visibility monitoring representative of all Class I areas. State regional haze plans are due in the 2003 to 2008 timeframe. Due to common precursors and the regional nature of the PM and haze problems, the haze rule includes specific provisions for states working together in regional planning groups to assess these problems and develop coordinated, regional emission reduction strate- gies. One provision allows nine Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission States (i.e., Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming) to submit initial plans in 2003 to imple- ment their past recommendations within the framework of the national regional haze program. Another provi- sion allows certain states to develop coordinated strate- gies for regional haze and PM until 2008, contingent upon future participation in regional planning groups. The new regional haze regulations require ambient monitoring representative of each of the Class I areas to track progress toward the U.S. national visibility goal. Required regional haze trend assessments will be based on changes in visibility expressed in deciviews7. To facili- tate these assessments, the aerosol portion of the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) visibility monitoring net- work is being expanded from 30 to 110 sites during the year 2000. The expanded network will now represent all Class I areas where monitoring can be practically imple- mented. Implementation of the PM and Ozone NAAQS, in conjunction with the regional haze program, is expected to improve visibility in urban as well as rural areas nationwide. Other air quality programs are expected to reduce emissions and improve visibility in certain regions of the country. The Acid Rain Program is expected to reduce sulfate haze, particularly in the east- ern United States, by achieving significant regional reductions in SO2 emissions. In addition, visibility impairment in Class I and other areas should improve because of a number of regulatory activities, including the NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call, mobile source emissions and fuel standards, certain air toxics standards, and the implementation of smoke manage- ment and wood stove programs to reduce fuel combus- tion and soot emissions. Notification, Assessment, and Mitigation of Significant Transboundary Air Pollution EFFORT COMMITMENT • Each party shall notify the other concerning a pro- posed action, activity, or project that would be likely to cause sig- nificant trans- boundary air pollution. Notification Canada and the United States are continuing notifica- tion procedures, ini- tiated in fall 1994, to identify possible new sources and modifications to existing sources of transboundary air pollution within 100 kilometers (km)—62 miles—of the border. The countries are also notifying one another of new sources or modifications 7A measure of visibility that captures the relationship between air pollution and human perception of visibility. When air is free of particles that cause visibility degradation, the Deciview Haze Index is zero. The higher the deciview level, the poorer the visibility. 7 ------- of concern beyond the 100-km limit. Canada has noti- fied the United States of 20 sources, and the United States has notified Canada of 14 sources. Transboundary notification information is available on the Internet sites of both governments at: Canada: www.ee.gc.ca/pdb/can_us/applic_e.html U.S.: www.epa.gov/ttn/gei/uscadata.html. Since the last Progress Report, Canada and the United States have sustained successful, ongoing consul- tations on sources of concern. Consultations on the Boundary Dam power station in Saskatchewan and the Algoma Steel Plant in Ontario have led to joint air qual- ity monitoring efforts. A binational consultation group composed of federal, state, provincial, and Boundary Dam power station authorities has developed a 5-year monitoring plan for the area around the power station on both sides of the border. Beginning in 2000, moni- toring is designed to characterize air quality in the area, with five samplers set up within 60 km of the local community of Estevan (see Figure 2 below). Forums on air quality such as the one held in the summer of 2000 provide information to concerned citizens and the gen- eral public about existing efforts and future plans. A similar plan, also developed by a joint consultation group, is being implemented in the area surrounding the Algoma Steel Plant. Dust fall monitoring sites have been established in Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan. Snow sampling has been conducted at a number of sites there, as well as in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. A PM2 5 moni- toring network consisting of two monitoring stations is scheduled to begin in summer 2000. Ongoing consulta- tions on the Connors Creek Detroit Edison Power Plant were resolved to the satisfaction of all parties involved. Saskatchewan-North Dakota PM Monitoring Network Ennwn Saskatchewan-North Dakota public meeting. The plant, which went back into operation in the sum- mer of 1999, is now using natural gas instead of coal. The plant is using CEMs as well. Assessment and Mitigation Canada and the United States have continued to make progress in assessment and mitigation despite dif- ferent interpretations of the commitment under the Air Quality Agreement. In response to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's adoption of the open access transmission policy and Canada's concerns about possi- ble increased transboundary flows of emissions, EPA has established an electronic database—the Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (E-GRID). E-GRID reports publicly available emissions and gener- ation data for virtually every power plant and company that generates electricity in the United States. EPA has demonstrated the operation of E-GRID to Canada and shared emissions monitoring and tracking results. The second E-GRID provides 1997 data and includes new information on company, owner type, and fossil-only emission rates for utilities. The next version, E-GRID 2000, scheduled for release before the end of the year, will include actual emissions and resource mix data for 1998 and prelimi- nary data for 1999 for all plants, including nonutility generators. The data will be configured according to industry and power grid structure in 2000 reflecting the latest corporate mergers, power plant sales, and grid reconfigurations. In addition to emission profiles for SO2, NOX, and CO2, E-GRID 2000 is expected to report plant-specific emissions and emission rates for mercury for the first time. A database of power inter- change between regions of the grid is also under devel- opment for future versions. (The E-GRID Web site is at www. epa. gov/acidrain/egrid.) Figure 2 8 ------- Section Additional Air Quality Programs This section focuses on the expanding cooperative efforts and progress Canada and the United States have undertaken on ground-level ozone andparticulate matter. Other air quality efforts undertaken interna- tionally, through provincial-state cooperation, and through public/private partnerships are also reported. Cooperation on Ground-Level Ozone and Particulate Matter Ozone Since the last Progress Report, Canadian Minister of the Environment David Anderson and EPA Administra- tor Carol Browner have supported the April 1999 rec- ommendation of the Air Quality Committee (AQC) to proceed with ozone annex negotiations. The first three negotiating meetings were held February 2000 in Ottawa, June 2000 in Washington, DC, and August 2000 in Ottawa. Additional meetings are taking place, with a goal of completing an ozone annex by the end of 2000. The move to develop an ozone annex was an out- growth of the initiative on ground-level ozone and par- ticulate matter (PM)—the Program to Develop a Joint Plan of Action for Addressing Transboundary Air Pollution—signed by the environmental heads of both governments in April 1997- The recommendation to support negotiation of an ozone annex also was based in part on a March 1999 report, Ground-Level Ozone: Occurrence and Transport in Eastern North America, developed by the AQC Subcommittee on Program Monitoring and Reporting. The report contains modeling and air quality analyses and features the following conclusions: (1) long-range transport of ozone and its precursors significantly influ- ence the magnitude and persistence of high ozone con- centration; (2) due to relative amounts of emissions in each country and the prevailing winds during summer ozone seasons, more ozone and precursors flow north- northeast from the United States into Canada than south-southeast from Canada into the United States; (3) there are substantial transboundary regional benefits to controlling NOX emissions both in Canada and the United States; and (4) there is clear evidence of the rationale for discussing an effective binational approach for management of ozone and its precursors in eastern North America. (The report can be found at: Canada: www.ec.gc.ca/smog/transport/cda_us99.htm U.S.: www.epa.gov/oar/oaqps/publicat.html#uscanaq) Particulate Matter As an outgrowth of the Joint Plan of Action and the June 1998 report by the environmental ministers on the progress of both governments, Canada and the United States are proceeding with technical analyses to develop a work plan for addressing transboundary PM issues. These analyses include modeling, monitoring, and data analysis. (For more details on PM work plan develop- ment and cooperative analyses, see Section IV, pp. 23-25.) Domestic Programs to Address Ozone and Particulate Matter Federal/Provincial/Territorial Initiatives PM and ozone Canada-Wide Standards were finalized by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment in June 2000. The standard for PM, which focuses on the fine fraction PM2 5, is a 30 cubic micrometers (um3 ) 24-hour average, 98th percentile ambient measurement annually averaged over 3 consec- utive years, to be achieved by 2010. Jurisdictions can continue to apply their existing air quality objectives or guidelines for PM less than or equal to 10 microns (PM10). The Canada-Wide Standard for ozone is 65 ppb 8-hour average, 4th highest measurement annually aver- aged over 3 consecutive years, to be achieved by 2010. Accompanying the standards are a set of joint initial actions to be undertaken by all Canadian jurisdictions and completed in 2005- Federal, provincial, and territo- rial governments will work together, in consultation with stakeholders, to identify and develop comprehen- sive, national multi-pollutant emissions reduction strategies. Initially, the strategies target the following sectors: electric power, pulp and paper, iron and steel, base metal smelting, concrete and asphalt plants, and ------- lumber and allied wood products. These sectors, based on current emission inventories, are significant emitters of the precursor pollutants that cause PM and ozone. The pollutants are common to most jurisdictions and affect many communities across Canada. The Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy for Post-2000 calls for a number of actions, including new emissions reduction targets in Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia and the pursuit of further SO2 emis- sions reduction commitments from the United States. Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia made a commitment at the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment meeting in November 1999 to announce new targets before the end of 2000. Ontario has since announced its target of a 50% reduc- tion from 1990 levels by 2015- Quebec has committed to a preliminary target of 40% from 1990 levels by 2002. Federal Initiatives Based on scientific recommendations, the ministers of environ- ment and health announced PM10 as toxic under the new 1999 Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA). Under CEPA 1999, a concrete timeframe to bring a toxic sub- stance under effective control is required. Key industrial sectors will be required to set emission reduction targets and timetables to meet those targets. The Government of Canada's action on PM10 is one of a number of immediate and long-term actions on clean air. Official notification was published in the Canada Gazette for a 60-day public comment period. To effectively reduce the ambient concentrations of PM, management strategies must address the pollutants that are emitted as precursors to PM. In that regard, the Federal Government announced its intention to recom- mend to the Governor in Council that the principal precursors to PM (SO2, NOX, VOCs, and ammonia) be added to Schedule 1 of CEPA's list of toxic substances. The announcement launched a 60-day comment period during which interested parties have the opportunity to provide the ministers of environment and health with comments regarding this proposal. These comments will be considered by the ministers prior to finalizing their recommendation to the Governor in Council. In fall 2000, the Federal Government is releasing Phase 3 of the Federal Smog Management Plan, contin- uing the effort begun in 1990 with the Phase 1 NOx/Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Management Plan and the subsequent 1997 Phase 2 Federal Smog Management Plan. The Phase 3 Plan provides for initia- tives to reduce emissions from transportation and petro- leum fuels as well as stationary sources. The plan also provides for further scientific research and analysis of the smog problem, better ambient air monitoring and reporting, and public education. The plan addresses key industrial sectors, including electric power, iron and steel, base metal smelting, pulp and paper, and lumber and allied wood products. The Phase 3 Smog Plan and its initiatives are devel- oped using multi-stakeholder consultation processes, in cooperation with other interested levels of government. Phase 3 initiatives will be implemented in a multi-pollutant approach, considering not only ozone and PM, but also initia- tives already underway to address toxics, acid rain, and climate change. As a sector, on-road vehicles are the largest contributor to NOX and carbon monoxide (CO) emis- sions in Canada, and the second largest contributor to VOC emissions. Given the integrated nature of the North American market, Canadian motor vehicle emis- sion standards generally mirror those in the United States. The current Tier 1 standards establish limits on hydrocarbons, CO, NOX, and PM emissions. In 1997, harmonization with the United States was written into the Motor Vehicle Safety Regulations. The federal emis- sion standards were previously established under the Motor Vehicle Safety Act but are now found under CEPA 1999- The CEPA provisions also create new authorities to set national emission standards for vehicles and engines used in a variety of off-road applications (e.g., agri- 10 ------- cultural and construction equipment) and nonroad applications (e.g., lawn mowers, generators, and chain saws). Under CEPA, Canada plans to continue aligning its emission standards for new vehicles and engines with corresponding U.S. federal programs. Environment Canada also plans to consult with stakeholders to devel- op a multi-year agenda for implementing an effective emission control program for vehicles, engines, and fuels. Restrictions from mobile sources also will reduce SO2 levels. Beginning in July 2002, through regulations under CEPA, gasoline's sulfur content must not exceed an average of 150 parts per million (ppm). This limit is further restricted to 30 ppm by January 2005- The reduction in gasoline sulfur levels is expected to reduce ambient concentrations of SO2 and sulfate particles, as well as VOC, CO, and NOX emissions from gasoline vehicles equipped with catalytic converters. Sulfur in diesel regulations, effective since January 1, 1998, limit the sulfur content of diesel fuel used in on-road vehicles to a maximum of 500 ppm. Benzene in gasoline regula- tions, effective since July 1999, limit the content of ben- zene in gasoline to below 1% by volume. To fill the regulatory gap until CEPA 1999 provided the necessary new authorities, Environment Canada announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with members of the Canadian Marine Manufacturers Association. Under this voluntary MOU, outboard engines and personal watercraft sold in Canada will be designed to comply with U.S. federal emission standards beginning in the 2001 model year. Environment Canada also has engaged in dialogue with industry asso- ciations and engine manufacturers representing the utili- ty engine and off-road diesel sectors to implement similar programs. Environment Canada is working closely with the Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA), Bombardier, and other private sector partners to deliver a major nationwide sustainable transportation cam- paign. Running in 61 Canadian cities, the campaign is supported by board advertisements on buses and public service announcements. The campaign focuses on alter- natives to single-occupancy vehicles and highlights the role of public transit in creating cleaner and healthier communities. Provincial/Regional Emission Reduction Plans Ontario Ontario has developed an Anti-Smog Action Plan, which covers a wide variety of sectors, to reduce 1990 NOX and VOC emissions levels 45% by the year 2015- The action plan has currently identified, planned, or implemented reduction opportunities. These opportuni- ties are expected to assist Ontario in achieving up to 80% of the targeted NOX reductions and 60% of the targeted VOC reductions. Other opportunities and actions are being identified by a team of stakeholders from industry, nongovernmental organizations, ministry staff, and other levels of government. The Ontario government addresses air quality prob- lems using a mix of regulatory and voluntary tools. On January 24, 2000, Ontario announced new actions to improve air quality, including a commitment to reduce the province's SO2 emissions 50% beyond the Countdown Acid Rain Program cap of 885 kilotonnes (kt) per year, by 2015- New regulations will cap NOX and SO2 emissions and will require mandatory emis- sions monitoring and reporting. These regulations will first apply to the electricity sector, then extend to other industrial and commercial sectors. In 2001, annual SO2 and NOX emissions (as nitrogen oxide) from coal and oil-burning power plants greater than 25 megawatts electric (MWe) will be limited to 157-5 kt and 36 kt net—more than 19% and 28% below the levels emitted in 1990. The province also announced emissions per- formance standards for Ontario, as well as U.S.-based generators wishing to sell to the Ontario market. At the same time, the province proposed a "Cap, Credit, and Trade" emissions reduction trading pro- gram. A new environmental assessment regulation has also been announced for Ontario that would specify environmental assessment requirements for electricity sector activities. Drive Clean, initiated in 1999, is a pro- gram for inspection and maintenance of passenger vehi- cles, trucks, and buses to reduce emissions from existing vehicles. When fully implemented, this program will eliminate 62,000 tonnes of smog-causing pollutants per year. The province's gasoline volatility regulation has been updated and requires gasoline refiners and blenders to reduce the smog-causing fumes emitted from summer-grade gasoline. More than 100 air quality standards will have been reviewed and revised or updated by the end of fiscal year 11 ------- •~ 1999/2000 to ensure that the environment is protected. Ontario also established an interim air quality standard for PM10. Currently, the province is developing a PM reduction strategy. The ministry also launched the Partners in Air Program, a partnership of high schools, government, business, and industry. The program will include in-class instruction for students on reducing smog and monitoring air quality. Provincewide results are posted for students on a Partners in Air Internet Web site at www.partnersinair.org British Columbia British Columbia (BC) has been the leader in a num- ber of clean transportation initiatives. BC is the only province to regulate beyond federal tailpipe emission standards for new vehicles. After a review of the relative benefits of U.S. Tier 2 and California Low Emission Vehicle Standards II standards, BC announced in March 2000 that it will follow the U.S. Tier 2 standards because they will provide the best air quality improve- ments. A fuel tax exemption is provided to encourage the use of natural gas, propane, and high-level alcohol blends to reduce emissions related to smog, fine particle formation, and greenhouse gases. A new exemption was created for low-level ethanol blends in the 1999 provin- cial budget. EC's AirCare Program has regulated the emissions of existing vehicles since 1992. A number of improvements will take effect when AirCare2 testing begins later in 2000 or early 2001. BC also began mandatory testing of heavy vehicle emissions in 1999- BC has Canada's only program to provide financial incentives to take older polluting vehicles off the road. The program was relaunched in November 1998 with a wider range of incentives. BC has also supported fuel cell commercial- ization through the purchase of three Ballard hydrogen fuel cell buses, used since fall 1999- The Lower Fraser Valley is an international air shed bordered by seacoast and mountains. The Canadian portion is shared by the Fraser Valley Regional District and the Greater Vancouver Regional District. Both areas have management plans aimed at improving air quality or preventing further deterioration. (Detailed informa- tion on air quality management efforts in both regions can be found at: www.gvrd.bc.ca/services/air/index.html and www.fvrd.bc.ca/home.html.) UNITED STATES Revised Ozone and PM Standards In July 1997, EPA established an 8-hour primary ozone standard to protect against longer exposure peri- ods that are of concern for both human health and the environment. The level of the national 8-hour primary and secondary ambient air quality standards for ozone is an 0.08 ppm daily maximum, 8-hour average, over 3 years. The standards are met when the 3-year average of the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentration is less than or equal to 0.08 ppm. The 8-hour ozone standard was subject to legal chal- lenge. In May 1999, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit remanded the case back to EPA for further consideration. The court has since agreed to review the decision. EPA is taking other actions to protect against the risks of ozone pollution while litigation continues over its more protective 8-hour standard. EPA is retaining the 1-hour ozone standard where it currently applies and has reinstated it in areas where it was previously revoked. These areas will continue monitoring for ozone, and some will need to take action to prevent or eliminate ozone violations. Once the 8-hour standard has become fully enforceable and is subject to no further legal challenge, EPA will take action to evoke the 1-hour standard in areas where air quality meets that standard. Regarding PM standards, the last review of the stan- dards concluded that further protection from adverse health effects is needed. Based on this review, the pri- mary (health-based) PM standards were revised in July 1997, adding two new PM2 5 standards that offer pro- tection from fine particles. The new PM2 5 standards were set at 15 um3 and 65 um3, respectively, for the annual and 24-hour standards. The secondary (welfare- based) PM2 5 standards were made identical to the pri- mary standards and will be implemented in conjunction with a revised visibility protection program to address regional haze in mandatory federal Class I areas. In May 1999, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit vacated the revised PM10 standards, remanding them back to EPA for further consideration. The Supreme Court has since agreed to review the decision in May 2000. EPA is currently reviewing the PM standards, scheduled for completion by 2002. 12 ------- In other efforts, EPA began deployment of a new monitoring network in early 1999 to assess fine PM data with respect to the new PM2 5 standards (see Section IV, p. 24 for more details). The Ozone Transport Reduction Rule and Related Actions In September 1998, EPA finalized the Ozone Transport Reduction Rule, known as the NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call, requiring 22 states8 and the District of Columbia to submit SIPs addressing the regional transport of ground-level ozone. By improving air quality and reducing NOX emissions, the actions directed by these plans will decrease the trans- port of ozone across state boundaries in the eastern half of the United States. The rule requires emissions reduc- tion measures to be in place by May 2004. The final rule does not mandate which sources must reduce pollu- tion. States will have the ability to meet the rule's requirements by reducing emissions from the sources they choose. Utilities and large nonutility point sources, however, would be one of the most likely sources of NOX emissions reductions. The final rule includes a model NOX Budget Trading Program that will allow states to achieve more than 90% of the required emis- sions reductions in a highly cost-effective way. This rule will reduce total summertime NOX emissions in the affected states and the District of Columbia by about 25% (approximately 1 million tons) beginning in 2003- EPA projects that these regional NOX reductions, in combination with existing local controls, will bring the vast majority of all new ozone nonattainment areas into attainment with the 8-hour ozone standard. They also will help reduce ozone levels in the remaining nonat- tainment areas east of the Mississippi River. In 1997, in a separate but related action, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont filed petitions with EPA under Section 126 of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) to reduce the transport of ground-level ozone. The petitions identified 30 states, plus the District of Columbia, as containing sources that significantly contribute to the regional transport of ground-level ozone. The petitions asked EPA to find that certain utilities and other NOX emissions sources significantly contribute to these states' ozone problems.9 In April 1999, EPA issued a final rule determining that four of the eight petitions could be approved based solely on technical considerations under the 1-hour standard. In January 2000, EPA granted these four peti- tions.10 As a result, 392 facilities will have to reduce annual emissions about 510,000 tons from 2007 levels. Tier 2 Standards for Auto Tailpipe Emissions and Low Sulfur in Gasoline In December 1999, EPA announced more protective tailpipe emissions standards for all passenger vehicles, including sport utility vehicles (SUVs), minivans, vans, and pickup trucks. Simultaneously, EPA announced more stringent standards for sulfur in gasoline, which will ensure the effectiveness of low-emission control technologies in vehicles and reduce harmful air pollu- tion. The implementation of the new tailpipe and sulfur standards will equate to removing 164 million cars from the road. These new standards require passenger vehicles to be 77% to 95% cleaner than those on the road today and to reduce gasoline's sulfur content by up to 90%. The new tailpipe standards are set at an average of 0.07 grams per mile (g/mi) of NOX emissions for all classes of passenger vehicles, beginning in 2004. This regulation marks the first time that SUVs and other light-duty trucks—even the largest passenger vehicles— are subject to the same national pollution standards as cars. Vehicles weighing less than 6,000 pounds will be phased into this standard between 2004 and 2007- 8EPA's final action was subject to legal challenge by a number of parties. In March 2000, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit issued a 2-to-l ruling in favor of EPA on all major issues associated with the NOX SIP Call. The court remanded issues—including those relating to Wisconsin, Georgia, and Missouri—to EPA. In June 2000, the court ordered SIP revisions addressing requirements upheld by the Court due by October 30, 2000. 'All eight petitioning states requested findings under the 1 -hour ozone standard; five also requested findings under the 8-hour standard. For each petition, EPA made separate technical determinations for the 1-hour and 8-hour ozone standards. 10EPA denied petitions for the 1 -hour standard filed by Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont because these states no longer had areas that were not attaining the 1 -hour standard. 13 ------- •~ For the heaviest light-duty trucks, the program pro- vides a three-step approach to reducing emissions. First, in 2004, vehicles must not exceed 0.6 g/mi—a more than 60% reduction from current standards. Second, these vehicles are required to achieve an interim stan- dard of 0.2 g/mi to be phased in between 2004 and 2007—an 80% reduction from current standards. In the final step, half of these vehicles will meet the 0.07 standard by 2008, and the remaining will comply in 2009- Vehicles weighing between 8,500 and 10,000 pounds can take advantage of additional flexibility during the 2004 to 2008 interim period. Beginning in 2004, the nation's gasoline refiners and importers will have the flexibility to manufacture gaso- line with a range of sulfur levels, as long as all their pro- duction is capped at 300 ppm and their average annual corporate sulfur levels are capped at 120 ppm. In 2005, the refinery average will be set at 30 ppm, with a corpo- rate average of 90 ppm and a cap of 300 ppm. Both the average standards can be met by using credits generated by other refiners that reduce sulfur levels early. Finally, in 2006, refiners will meet a 30-ppm average sulfur level with a maximum cap of 80 ppm. Gasoline produced for sale in parts of the western United States will be allowed to meet a 150-ppm refinery average and a 300-ppm cap through 2006 but will have to meet the 30-ppm average/80-ppm cap by 2007- Small refiners (i.e., those that have no more than 1,500 employees and a corporate crude oil capacity of no more than 155,000 barrels per day) will be required to comply with less stringent interim standards through 2007, when they must meet the final sulfur standards. If necessary, small refiners that demonstrate a severe eco- nomic hardship can apply for an additional extension of up to two years. ,4,; Proposed Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel Sulfur Control Requirements In June 2000, EPA proposed a major program to sig- nificantly reduce emissions from heavy-duty engines and vehicles. This comprehensive 50-state control program regulates the heavy-duty vehicle and its fuel as a single system. Under the proposal, new emission standards will begin to take effect in 2007 and will apply to heavy- duty highway engines and vehicles operated on any fuel. As proposed, this program will reduce emissions of NOX and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC)—key ingredi- ents in ground-level ozone—by 2.8 million and 305,000 tons per year in 2030, respectively. Particulate emissions from these vehicles would be reduced by 110,000 tons per year in 2030. The proposed PM emissions standards for new heavy- duty engines of 0.01 g/bhp-hr would take effect in the 2007 model year. Standards for NOX and NMHC are 0.20 g/bhp-hr and 0.14 g/bhp-hr, respectively. These NOX and NMHC standards would be phased in togeth- er for diesel engines between 2007 and 2010. Proposed standards for complete heavy-duty vehicles would be implemented on the same schedule as for engine stan- dards. For vehicles between 10,000 and 14,000 pounds, the proposed standards are 0.4 g/mi for NOX, 0.02 g/mi for PM, and 0.23 g/mi for NMHC. Proposed standards for diesel fuel specify that fuel sold to consumers for use in highway vehicles have a sulfur content no greater than 15 ppm, beginning in June 2006. Current sulfur content in fuel is about 500 ppm. State Efforts Attainment Demonstrations The CAAA requires each state containing an area des- ignated nonattainment for ozone to submit an attain- ,:•'•', ment demonstration plan to meet the ozone standard. A; EPA has recently proposed action on attainment demonstrations for 10 major urban areas: Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, (., Milwaukee, western Massachusetts, greater Connecticut, and Washington, DC. Attainment demonstrations for these areas will involve 13 states and the District of Columbia. The CAAA specifies certain measures that must be adopted in nonattainment areas—reasonably available control technology on major sources, and vehicle inspection and maintenance, for example. However, each state can choose the additional measures needed 14 ------- for attainment. The rule-making action for each plan provides details of the control measures the plans rely upon. Northeast Ozone Transport Region The CAAA established the Northeast Ozone Transport Region and the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) in recognition of long-standing regional ozone problems in the northeastern United States. The OTC comprises the governors or their designees and an air pollu- tion control official from Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Administrators for three northeastern EPA regions also participate. The OTC states decided on a number of steps to reduce regional air pollution. For example, they agreed to significantly reduce NOX emissions throughout the region from large stationary sources such as power plants and other large fuel combustion sources using market-based approaches. This program is expected to reduce 1990 baseline emissions by 52 percent. Other Cooperative Air Quality Efforts United Nations Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Protocol The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Protocol (LRTAP), signed in 1979, was the first international agreement recognizing environ- mental and health problems caused by the flow of air pollutants across borders and the need for regional solu- tions. On LRTAP's 20th anniversary in December 1999, Canada and the United States signed the Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication, and Ground-Level Ozone. The signing of this agreement initiates a new phase within LRTAP to increase emphasis on imple- mentation, compliance, review, and extension of existing protocols. To accommodate the domestic (acid rain) and bilater- al (acid rain and ozone) agreements in place or currently underway in both countries, Canada and the United States will incorporate their emissions reduction com- mitments for SO2, NOX, and VOCs into the new proto- col at the time of ratification. This will enable inclusion of the bilateral initiative to complete negotiations of an ozone annex to the Air Quality Agreement in 2000. Emissions reduction commitments in the protocol relate to emission limit values for new and existing station- ary sources and new mobiles sources; applica- tion of best available tech- niques (BAT); and measures to reduce VOC emissions associated with the use of products. There are no Canadian or U.S. commitments related to ammonia. (For more infor- mation on the LRTAP Convention and protocols, see www.unece.org/env/ '""+F' lrtaP-) New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers The Conference of New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG/ECP) announced res- olutions containing action plans for acid rain and mer- cury at its July 1998 annual meeting. In 1999, the NEG/ECP Acid Rain Steering Committee called on the Federal Governments to reduce SO2 emissions 50% and annual NOX emissions 30% beyond current commit- ments. State and provincial implementation of the NEG/ECP Acid Rain Action Plan has led to the forma- tion of focused work groups on forest mapping, surface water quality, fine particle monitoring, public outreach, and data exchange. (For details on scientific activities and NEG/ECP projects, see Section IV, pp. 27 and 28.) Canada-U.S. Georgia Basin Ecosystem Initiative In January 2000, Canadian Minister of the Environment David Anderson and EPA Administrator Carol Browner signed a British Columbia-Washington Environmental Cooperation Agreement. This coopera- tive initiative builds on several years of conservation and protection work at the state/provincial/regional levels, strengthening the governments' partnership in address- 15 ------- •~ ing the region's transboundary and global environmental challenges. As part of this initiative, Canada and the United States will establish a joint Environment Canada-EPA work group of senior-level officials to develop annual action plans. The plans will share scien- tific information on the ecosystem, develop joint research initiatives, ensure coordination of environmen- tal management initiatives, and jointly consider longer term planning issues. Enhanced cooperation on air qual- ity issues is expected to be one of the first action items. North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone The North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) is a public/private partnership that includes Canada, the United States, and Mexico. It coordinates research on atmospheric processes involved in ozone and ozone precursor accu- mulation, transformation, and transport in the conti- nental troposphere, as well as on fine particles. NARSTO's report, An Assessment of Tropospheric Ozone Pollution: A North American Perspective, is expected to be released by fall 2000. The report will address tropos- pheric ozone and ozone precursor transboundary issues, emissions, monitoring trends, modeling, and methods development. Research continues under NARSTO to determine efficient and effective strategies for local and regional ozone management across the North American continent. NARSTO also is preparing a PM science assessment expected to be completed by the end of 2002." Northeast Regional Air Quality Committee The Northeast Regional Air Quality Committee (NERAQC), established in response to Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) and visibility protection under Annex 1, is focused on protected areas in New England and Atlantic Canada. NERAQC is made up of federal, state, and provincial representatives. The com- mittee holds meetings and conferences to exchange information about air pollution research, air monitor- ing, and mitigation efforts that impact parks and pro- tected areas. (For more information on NERAQC, see http://capita.wustl.edu/NEARdat/transflo/NERAQC/ NERAQC.htm.) "Quality assurance and data management guidelines and assistance are available to all NARSTO researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. 16 ------- Section IV Scientific Information Exchange This section focuses on Canadian and U.S. progress under Annex 2 of the Air Quality Agreement to cooperate and to exchange scientific information related to transboundary air quality issues. This cooperation and exchange of data is essential for comparing atmospheric and ecosystem changes related to variations in emissions of pollutants. It is also important for publishing results in common formats. The emissions graphics and acid deposition maps presented in this section are examples of cooperative data sharing. Throughout the 1990s, cooperative efforts focused primarily on acid rain. In recent years, the two governments have undertaken joint analyses and shared data in the areas of level ozone and fine p articulates. Emissions Inventories Emissions inventories provide the foundation for air quality management programs. They are used to identi- fy major sources of air pollution, provide data to input into air quality models, and track the progress of control strategies. In this section, SO2, NOX, and VOCs are the main pollutants addressed. SO2 and NOX emissions are the dominant precursors of acidic deposition; NOX and VOCs are primary contributors to the formation of ground-level ozone; and all three pollutants contribute to PM formation. In this section, emissions trends estimates for SO2, NOX, and VOCs for both Canada and the United States (Figures 3, 6, and 7) are presented reflecting new methodologies for determining total estimates and using new models and results (e.g., the NONROAD model). In addition to the joint emissions trends data, the latest available data (1998) on sources of emissions by sector are presented in Figures 4, 5, and 8. Canadian emissions data are preliminary Canada-U.S. SO2 Emissions, 1980-2010 -Canada US Total Figure 3 No data were available in 1980 to estimate emissions from U.S. nonroad diesel and gasoline vehicles. For purposes of consis- tency, these emissions have been removed from all other years. Sulfur Dioxide Coal and oil combustion, smelting, and a few indus- trial processes continue to be the principal anthro- pogenic sources of SO2. Overall, a 39% reduction in SO2 emissions is projected in Canada and the United States from 1980 to 2010. Canada-U.S. SO2 Emissions By Sector Canada - 1998 Electric Utilities 20% Industrial Sources 74% United States - 1998 Industrial Sources 15% Fuel Combustion Electric Utilities 67% Figure 4 17 ------- Nitrogen Oxides The principal anthropogenic source of NOX emissions remains the combustion of fuels in stationary and mobile sources. Motor vehicles, residential and commer- cial furnaces, industrial and electric utility boilers and engines, and other equipment contribute to this catego- ry. U.S. reductions in NOX emissions are attributed to controls in electric utilities under the Acid Rain Canada-U.S. NOX Emissions By Sector Canada - 1998 Transportation 53% Industrial Sources 26% Fuel Combustion 3% Electric Utilities 11% United States - 1998 Industrial Sources 12% Fuel Combustion 5% Elsctric Utilities 25% Program, the estimated controls associated with EPA's Regional Transport NOX State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call, and the Tier 2 Tailpipe Standard. Overall estimated trends for anthropogenic emissions of NOX in Canada and the United States from 1990 to 2010 are shown below. Canada-U.S. NOX Emissions, 1990-2010 1995 2000 Year ••'••Canada -—US Figure 6 Volatile Organic Compounds Anthropogenic emissions of VOCs come from a wide variety of sources, including mobile sources and indus- trial processes (e.g., chemical manufacturing and the production of petroleum products). Emissions in the United States are expected to decline by the year 2000 and then remain stable through 2010. Overall estimated trends in anthropogenic VOC emissions for Canada and the United States from 1980 to 2010 are shown below. Canada-U.S.VOC Emissions, 1980-2010 990 1995 2000 Year -•-Canada -m-US -^Total Figure 7 Figure 5 18 ------- Canada-U.S.VOC Emissions By Sector Canada - 1998 Other 23% Industrial Sources 34% Transportation Fuel Combustion 15% United States - 1998 Industrial Sources Fuel Combustion Other 51% Figure 8 Acid Deposition Monitoring Acid deposition monitoring is measured both as wet deposition in the form of rain, snow, and fog, and dry deposition through analyses of particles and gases. Canada and the United States have well-established net- works that measure wet and dry deposition. Both coun- tries contributed to an integrated data set used for the maps on page 20 that show North American deposition trends. Status and Trends Following implementation of Phase I of the Acid Rain Program, analyses of National Atmospheric Depo- sition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) data for 1995 to 1998 showed a dramat- ic and unprecedented sulfate deposition reduction of up to 25% over a large area of the eastern United States. The greatest reductions were in the northeastern United States, where many sensitive ecosystems are located. In eastern Canada, sulfate concentrations in precipita- tion did not exhibit the same sudden decrease in 1995 as seen in the United States. While the Canadian con- centration trends generally moved downward in 1995, the decrease appeared as a continuation of a slow decline begun several years earlier. The magnitude of the slow decline between the 1986 to 1989 period and the 1993 to 1996 period ranged from 12% to 30% at most Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN) sites. A 10-year trend analysis for the 1988 to 1998 period at 34 eastern U.S. Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) sites shows significant declines in SO2 and sulfate concentrations in ambient air. The average SO2 reduction was 38 percent; for sulfate, the reduction was 22 percent. In the early 1990s, ambient SO2 concentra- tions in the rural eastern United States were highest in western Pennsylvania and along the Ohio Valley in the vicinity of Chicago and Gary, Indiana. Large SO2 air quality improvements can be seen by comparing the 1990 to 1991 period with the 1997 to 1998 period. The largest decrease in concentrations are noted in the vicinity of Chicago and throughout states bordering the Ohio Valley (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia). The highest SO2 concen- trations in the rural parts of the eastern United States are concentrated in southwestern Pennsylvania. In eastern Canada, SO2 and sulfate concentrations in air exhibited similar trends to those in the eastern United States. At most CAPMoN sites, SO2 and sulfate concentrations decreased from highs in the 1988 to 1991 period until 1995, after which they leveled off. As with the U.S. CASTNet measurements, the sulfate decline tended to be slower than that of SO2. Highest SO2 and sulfate concentrations occurred in the south- ernmost parts of Ontario and Quebec, in close proximi- ty to the northern areas of the United States that experienced the highest concentrations. Analyses of Atmospheric Integrated Research Moni- toring Network (AIRMoN) wet and dry deposition sites 19 ------- Wet Sulfate and Wet Nitrate Deposition in 1980-1984 and 1995-1998 Wet depostion before (1980-1984) and after (1995-1998) the implementation of the Phase 1 CAAA con- trols can be compared in Figures 9 through 12. Wet sulfate deposition decreased substantially from the early 1980s to the post-implementation period. Nitrate wet deposition, on the other hand, showed minor changes between these periods. Units are kilograms per hectare per year. These analyses are based on measurements of precipitation chemistry from the NADP/NTN and CASTNet in the United States and from federal and provincial monitoring networks in Canada. Wet sulfate deposition has been adjusted for the sea-salt contribution of sulfate. Contours are not shown in figures 10 and 12 in Ontario and Quebec because provincial data were not available; values shown in those provinces are for federal sites only. 1980-1984 Wet Sulfate Deposition 1980-1984 Wet Nitrate Deposition Figure 9 1995-1998 Wet Sulfate Deposition •' ! X"J /--SBf • /j? I t>-4_"»i_ --— :•'• Figure 10 1995-1998 Wet Nitrate Deposition / h Figure I I Figure 12 20 ------- focusing primarily in the Northeast showed sulfate con- centrations dropping as utility SO2 emissions decreased. There was a one-to-one change in total sulfur concen- trations reduced (SO2 and sulfate) to SO2 emissions reduced. Nitrate concentration in precipitation remains unchanged when comparing NADP/NTN nitrate data collected from 1983 to 1984 with data collected from 1995 to 1998. CASTNet data also showed no change in total nitrate concentrations. The highest nitrate concen- trations were found in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. In eastern Canada, the concentrations of nitrate in precipitation, as measured by CAPMoN, showed differ- ent trends depending on the location. In Ontario, the majority of sites did not exhibit an obvious trend throughout the 1980s and up to 1997; in Quebec and the Atlantic regions, most sites showed increases in the last few years of the 1980s or the first few years of the 1990s, followed by decreases until early 1997- This behavior is consistent with the trend in NOX emissions in eastern North America. CAI ANADA Wet deposition in Canada is measured by various fed- eral and provincial/territorial governments. Environment Canada operates 19 federal sites in Canada under the auspices of CAPMoN. Three addi- tional sites will be added in 2000/2001. Provincial wet deposition monitoring networks, comprising 77 sites, are operated by the governments of British Columbia, Alberta, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and the Northwest Territories. Ontario closed its monitoring network of approximately 20 sites in April 2000, leaving only 7 CAPMoN sites operating in that province. Dry deposition is determined at 10 of Environment Canada's CAPMoN sites using a technique known as the inferential method (a similar approach is used in the United States). Two more sites will be added in 2000/2001. No dry deposition measurements are made by the provinces or territories. UNITED STATE; The United States has three acid deposition monitor- ing networks: NADP/NTN; AIRMoN, which is part of NADP; and CASTNet. NADP/NTN has more than 200 wet deposition monitoring sites, including 15 collo- cated dry deposition sites monitored on a weekly basis. Nine AIRMoN sites monitor wet deposition on a daily basis, and 15 sites monitor dry deposition on a weekly basis. CASTNet has 74 sites monitoring dry deposition and rural ozone concentrations. Information and Data Exchange EPA and Environment Canada have broadened their coordination on comparability issues, sharing of infor- mation on quality control, and data management. An EPA workshop held in May 2000 focused on challenges facing the operation of dry deposition monitoring net- works in both countries. During the next few years, research efforts will be directed at developing better esti- mates of dry deposition, emphasizing nitrogen. Ozone Concentrations Over Eastern North America, 1996-1998 Figure 13 Ground-Level Ozone Monitoring and Mapping Ground-level ozone (the primary constituent of smog) continues to be a pervasive pollution problem throughout many areas of the United States and south- ern Canada. Ozone is not emitted directly into the air, but is formed by the reaction of VOCs and NOX in the presence of heat and sunlight. Ground-level ozone forms readily in the atmosphere, usually during hot summer weather. As reported in Section III, p. 9, the Air Quality Committee produced a joint transboundary ozone report including modeling and air quality analyses. Status and Trends Figure 13 (above) shows the fourth highest daily max- imum 8-hour ozone concentration for the northeastern portion of North America, averaged over the years 1996 21 ------- to 1998. This figure was created for Environment Canada using the EPA-sponsored Map Generator Program. The figure incorporates data from 271 ozone monitoring sites that had at least two years of observa- tions in the 1996 to 1998 period. Distribution of 4th Highest Daily 8h Maximum Ozone (ppb) for Regional Sites, 1994-1996 (Median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th Percentiles) AT MAINE MOW TOR SW MICH NY OHIO PENN PR VA WASH REGION Figure 14 Figure 14 shows the distribution of the fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentration at sites in the Canada-U.S. border region using data for 1994 to 1996. The highest values are recorded at the U.S. sites and at the southwestern Ontario sites; the lowest values are recorded at sites in the Prairies and the Vancouver area. Concentrations of combined nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and NOX decreased in urban sites from 1989 to 1996 in Montreal, the Toronto area, southwestern Ontario, and Vancouver-Lower Fraser Valley. About half of this change was recorded between 1989 and 1990. In contrast, there has been little or no detectable change in mean VOC concentrations during the same period. Ozone Monitoring Both governments have extensive ground-level ozone monitoring programs. CANADA Ambient monitoring of ground-level ozone and NOX is performed throughout Canada under the National Air Pollution Surveillance (NAPS) network. The NAPS net- work is a joint program of the federal and provincial governments for monitoring and assessing the ambient air quality at 150 air monitoring stations in 52 urban centers across Canada. Air quality data for the criteria pollutants (SO2, carbon monoxide (CO), NO2, ozone, and PM) and for other pollutants such as particulate lead, sulfate, and nitrate are collected, validated, and archived in the NAPS database. Data records for ozone and NO2 go back to the early 1980s. Special VOC measurements have been collected since 1989- Most monitoring of ground-level ozone and precursors is focused in the country's densely urbanized regions. In addition, Environment Canada operates CAPMoN, which is representative of most nonurban regions of the country. UNITED STATES The national ambient air quality monitoring pro- gram—the State and Local Air Monitoring Stations (SLAMS) network—is implemented by state and local air pollution control agencies. The SLAMS network consists of three major categories of monitoring stations: (1) those that are SLAMS only; (2) National Air Monitoring Stations (NAMS); and (3) Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS). PAMS meas- ure a variety of criteria and noncriteria pollutants. EPA also operates CASTNet, which provides ozone levels in rural areas, as well as dry acidic deposition levels and trends (see pages 19 and 21). Currently, there are 578 SLAMS for ozone, which are used for SIP support, state/local data, and EPA regional office oversight. There are 208 NAMS sites for ozone, which are used for national policy support, national trends development, measurement of maximum concen- trations and population exposures, and EPA headquar- ters oversight. Additionally, the state and local agencies operate 265 special purpose monitors (SPM) for ozone. These are generally used for special state- or local-level studies and state/local oversight. The PAMS networks measure ozone precursors (i.e., approximately 60 volatile hydrocarbons and carbonyl) as required by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) to monitor the most severe ozone nonattain- ment areas. The PAMS requirements were designed to provide information on the roles of ozone precursors, pollutant transport, and local meteorology in the photochemical process, and to assist in information gathering for proposed ozone control strategies. In 2000, approximately 83 PAMS will be in operation. 22 ------- Ozone Mapping Particulate Matter Monitoring, Data Analysis, and Modeling AIRNOWExpansion AIRNOW, EPA's real-time air quality program, will expand into Canada in 2000 to cover the Atlantic provinces and Quebec. The AIRNOW animated Ozone Map shows ozone concentrations within categories rang- ing from "Good" to varying degrees of "Unhealthy." (For more information, see www.epa.gov/airnow.) The expansion into eastern Canada is a cooperative venture involving New England states, eastern Canadian provinces, the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), EPA, and Environment Canada. Ontario has been invited to join the project. In May 2000, the partners initiated efforts to begin trans- fer of the real-time ozone data. The resulting map is expected to be available to the general public in 2000. The project, in reaching out to the public, will comple- ment existing smog advisory programs and the develop- ing smog forecasting program. Currently, 32 states participate in AIRNOW. Air Quality Index In 1999, EPA finalized revisions to the Air Quality Index (AQI), formerly known as the Pollutant Standards Index. Significant revisions were made, including: (1) changes to better reflect the continuum of health risks associated with increased pollutant concentrations; (2) the addition of pollutant-specific health and cautionary statements to inform the public of effective risk reduc- tion behaviors; (3) an AQI update for use in the media (i.e., television and newspapers); and (4) specific revi- sions to add an ozone subindex in terms of 8-hour aver- age concentrations, as well as a new subindex for fine PM (PM25). (For more information, see www.epa.gov/airnow/publications.html.) Canada and the United States are conducting cooper- ative analyses and developing a joint work plan for transboundary inhalable particles as an outgrowth of the Joint Plan of Action signed in 1997 and the Joint Plan Report of the environmental ministers in 1998. The work plan will include both data analysis and atmos- pheric modeling efforts to quantify the impacts of trans- boundary PM and precursors transport across the region. The first workshop on ambient data analysis and air quality modeling activities was held in September 1999- The workshop participants recommended developing a 3- to 4-year plan, taking advantage of the first genera- tion of PM models to assess transboundary PM impacts. The Air Quality Committee supported the recommen- dation that all available models be used at this stage at its November 1999 meeting in Washington, DC. The plan provides an inventory of transboundary episodes, data comparability studies, Canadian/U.S. database infrastructure, source-receptor modeling, extended episode analysis and reporting, and entering data into the database. In addition, Canadian/U.S. analysis of specific episodes is already under way in eastern North America following two episodes. During February 1998, very high particle nitrate concentrations were observed, fol- lowed by increasing particle sulfate concentrations as air masses began to move at the end of the episode. In the July 1995 summer episode, particle sulfate dominated the mass observations. Transboundary impacts model applications will be made using a combined 1995/1996 Canadian-U.S. emissions inventory. In addition, applications for the regional scale modeling system, Models-3/Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) have been initiated for the continental United States and southern Canada, with a 36-kilometer (km) grid for the 1996 base year. CMAQ will be applied for PM25 visibility and several PM species. Preliminary results are expected by the end of the year. 23 ------- There are several different monitoring methods used within the Canadian and U.S. networks. They operate on various sampling schedules, from continuous hourly measurements to 24-hour average measurements taken once every six days. A major challenge of the ambient data analysis work is determining how these various methods can be compared. Another challenge is under- standing the spatial patterns and historical trends by merging data from these different methods and networks. During 2001, another workshop on modeling and data analysis will assess progress and products, and refine joint efforts to complete the transboundary impact assessment. Paniculate Matter Monitoring Canada has monitored for PM2 5 and PM10 under the NAPS program since 1984. Currently, the highest observed PM2 5 concentrations are in eastern Canada's border regions. More than half the PM, especially the finer fraction PM25, is of secondary origin from atmos- Variations in the Composition of PM in Two Canadian Cities Abbotsford, British Columbia Soil 7.03% K (Non-soil) 0.49% Presumed N03 18.24% SO4 19.06% Organic 41.81% StAndrews, New Brunswick Organic 20.78% B.C. Soil 7.10% J3^31 % K (Non-soil) 0.83% Presumed N03 20.23% S04 47.45% pheric reactions of precursor gases, including SO2, NOx: VOCs, and ammonia (NH3). This results in PM com- position varying with season and location, as illustrated below left for Abbotsford, British Columbia, and St. Andrews, New Brunswick. The most recent national summary of Canadian PM air quality and impacts can be found in the Paniculate Matter, Science Assessment Document, 1999, at www.hc-sc.gc.ca/ehp/ehd/catlogue/ bch_pubs/99ehd220-l .htm. UNITED STATES In the United States, deployment of new monitoring networks for PM2 5 is supplying additional information to both the Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS) and AQI systems. Specific monitoring network data will include: • Approximately 300 Federal Reference Method (FRM) sites that have complete data for 1999, and about 600 FRM sites with some 1999 data and com- plete 2000 data. The network will have 1,089 FRM sites installed by December 2000. • Approximately 200 continuous ambient monitors. • The initial 15 speciation sites, which had limited data available as of April 2000. The completed speciation network, expected to total 250 to 300 sites with 54 sites operating for trends purposes, will be installed by December 2000. • Eight supersites with useful data in 2001. • An expansion of the IMPROVE network, expected to be complete by December 2000. It will include 110 sites nationally. • CASTNetdata. Paniculate Matter Modeling Understanding the potential for long-range transport of particles between Canada and the United States requires insight from both ambient data and predicted ambient concentrations using regional chemical trans- port models. These models use the current understand- ing of chemical transformations and meteorological influences on particle behavior, plus the best estimates of primary particle and precursor gas emissions esti- mates. The governments are working jointly to merge mobile source emission and modeling files. This com- mon emission inventory is critical as a foundation to the joint modeling effort to characterize transboundary impacts. Figure 15 24 ------- Canadian PM2S Monitoring Sites Within 200 Km of U.S. Border Status of PM2s Monitoring Deployment (United States) Figure 16 Canadian modeling efforts are directed toward devel- opment and evaluation of A Unified Regional Air Quality Modeling System (AURAMS), capable of pre- dicting multi-pollutant responses to changes in gaseous and particle emissions. This model, now in its first stage of development, can predict size-resolved particle mass concentrations (including sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, elemental carbon, crustal material, and water), sulfate and nitrate deposition, and ozone. This model is currently being evaluated on an eastern North America domain, and plans are in place to apply it to western North America. UNITED STATE; The United States also is proceeding with develop- ment, testing, and application of the Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition (REMSAD). The application of the REMSAD into a variety of sensitivity analyses and control strategy simulations continues. Current applications are for the continental United States with 36 km grids. Concentration estimates are being made for PM25, visibility, and several PM species with a complete 1996 base year (both emissions and meteorological conditions). In addition, consistent with recommendations from a scientific peer review, the model is being updated and documented for both emis- sions and air quality. Model performance comparisons will be conducted with observed data for both the 1996 base year application and the improved model. As dis- cussed previously as part of a joint effort, progress is being made in applying the regional scale CMAQ for the continental United States and southern Canada for PM, visibility, and acid deposition. Figure 17 Data Analysis A completed general trends analysis using IMPROVE data for PM25 appears in the 1998 National Ambient Air Quality Trends Report. Ongoing data analysis activi- ties with both short- and long-term products are under- way to spatially and temporally characterize PM2 5. These activities include but are not limited to: (1) con- tinual data quality assessment of the monitoring net- work; (2) investigation of interrelationships between primary and secondary formed pollutants; (3) inter- comparison of pollutants and emission patterns; and (4) investigation of uncertainties and limitations in source- receptor analysis. The use of data from various databases and networks is an issue that is continually addressed. Paniculate Matter Mapping UNITED STATES In addition to ozone mapping, EPA is working toward making real-time PM2 5 data available through the AIRNOW Web site at www.epa.gov/airnow. Based on feedback at the annual Ozone Mapping Workshop, data are expected to be readily available across the United States in 2001. Several states will make data available this year, but the majority prefer to wait until they are fully operational with real-time ozone data before extending their coverage to PM25. 25 ------- Paniculate Matter Research UNITED STATES EPA is carrying out a major PM research program focused on: (1) improving the scientific underpinnings for setting ambient air standards; and (2) expanding the scientific and technical tools to implement control strategies needed to attain the standards. To support standard setting, research is conducted to improve understanding of the characteristics of particles to which people are exposed; to identify and clarify mechanisms by which particles cause adverse health effects; to under- stand factors that place some subpopulations at increased risk; and to characterize the risks to public health. Research to support standards implementation is designed to determine major sources of PM, to develop methods to measure PM constituents, to develop air quality models of PM's atmospheric fate and transport, and to identify the most cost-effective methods to reduce or prevent risks associated with PM exposure. During the next sev- eral years, EPA's PM research program will address the immediate and long-term research priorities recommended by the National Research Council's Committee on Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter. Specific examples of ongoing efforts include: • Conducting atmos- pheric sciences research such as spe- ciated ambient monitoring, emissions characteriza- tion, atmospheric chemistry and processes, and modeling, under the aegis of NARSTO. (For more information on NARSTO, see Section III, p. 16.) • Carrying out "exposure panel studies" that follow small groups of individuals by using intensive person- al exposure monitoring and activity diaries. • Using concentrated ambient particle systems to explore animal susceptibility models and to evaluate characteristics of particles affecting health in human clinical, animal lexicological, and in vitro systems. • Reviewing and summarizing exposure and health effects work for the next Air Quality Criteria Document for PM. • Conducting risk management research to evaluate options for reducing emissions of both particles and gaseous precursors. (For more information on EPA's research program, see the international inventory of PM research activities at www.pmra.org.) Aquatic Effects Research and Monitoring Cooperative Regional Trends Assessment In 1999, Canadian and U.S. researchers12 analyzed whether emissions reductions have led to chemical recovery of surface waters in five North American regions: Maine/Atlantic Canada, Vermont/Quebec, southern/central Ontario, Adirondacks/Catskills, and midwestern North America. The analysis examined regional trends in surface water chemistry between 1980 and 1995- Results generally confirmed those reported in the 1998 Progress Report. Trends in surface water sulfate concentrations pro- vided the strongest evi- dence for regional responses to decreasing sul- fate deposition. Lake and stream sulfate concentra- tions decreased in all North American regions, with downward trends stronger in the 1990s than in the 1980s. Regional declines in lake and stream nitrate con- centrations were rarer, smaller in magnitude, and likely confounded by climatic effects and effects of insect infestations. Researchers expected to see recovery (either decreasing acidity or increasing alkalinity) in all areas with strong regional sulfate declines. Recovery was observed, however, only in the Vermont/Quebec region in the 1990s. Southern/central Ontario, the Adirondack and Catskill Mountains, and midwestern North America demonstrated either an absence of regional increases in alkalinity or continued acidification. Lack of 12Stoddard, J.L., et al. "Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe." Nature, Volume 401, October 7, 1999. 26 ------- recovery in the Canadian and U.S. regions is primarily attributed to strong regional declines in base cation13 concentrations. These declines exceeded decreases in sul- fate concentrations. Another potential factor is the increasing role of nitrogen in acid-sensitive regions as sulfate levels decline. Evidence points to base cation declines being caused by high rates of acidic deposition, which in the past, have leached enough cations from sensitive soils to severely deplete cation pools. As described in Section III, the New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG/ECP) Acid Rain Action Plan also provides a forum for exchange of scientific information related to aquatic effects monitoring. The Action Plan resulted in prepara- tion of two state-of-the-art reviews. One review by the NEG/ECP Water Quality Monitoring Workgroup in 2000, Is Nitrogen Deposition a Serious Issue?, addresses the issue of nitrogen. The other is a 2000 report, Model Estimations of the Effects ofSO2 Emission Reductions on Regional Aquatic Chemistry and Biology in Eastern North America, issued by Environment Canada's National Water Research Institute. A review of the biological damages caused by acid deposition is planned for 2000/2001. Also, regional lake and river monitoring sites in four New England states and four Canadian provinces will be used to jointly assess temporal trends in water chemistry. CANADA Monitoring lakes near major SO2 sources at Rouyn- Noranda, Quebec, and Sudbury, Ontario, complements the regional trends analyses. Emissions from the smelter at Rouyn-Noranda have declined by more than 70% since the early 1980s. This reduction, added to those achieved in Ontario and in the United States, explain the 40% to 50% sulfate decrease in surrounding lakes. Like the regional results, however, reduction of lake acidity has been less successful. There was a significant increase in pH (mean 0.5 unit) in clear water lakes south of the smelter between 1991 and 1996, but the pH of colored lakes remained low. Alkalinity remained stable or decreased slightly, while base cations and alu- minum decreased significantly. Finally, despite no change in atmospheric deposition or land use, there was a twofold increase in nitrate concentrations in lakes within 50 km of Rouyn-Noranda.14 Lakes near the smelters at Sudbury show the strongest evidence of acidification recovery. Of 38 monitored lakes, 35 exhibit increasing alkalinity. The consistency of recovery response in Sudbury lakes is probably due to local emission reductions being very large (about 90% overall) and the fact that a large proportion of the reduction occurred in the 1970s. Hence, Sudbury lakes have had a longer time to adjust to lower acid input than the regional or Rouyn-Noranda lakes. Local smelters' influence on lake water sulfate and acidity extends out approximately 45 km. Beyond this radius, lake chemistry and trends are indistinguishable from those more than 200 km away. Unlike Rouyn-Noranda, there are few nitrate trends in Sudbury area lakes.15 Acid deposition has had a major destructive impact in many of Canada's lakes and rivers. Salmon spawning rivers in southern Nova Scotia continue to acidify, and there is no evidence of salmon recovery.16 Nova Scotia is the most heavily impacted Canadian province in terms of the proportion offish habitat damaged by acid rain. The Southern Upland is the main area impacted. Naturally reproducing salmon are no longer present in many of the 65 rivers that have their source in the Southern Upland, and they are reduced in all other area rivers. The principal factors responsible are acid toxicity due to acid deposition, and low marine survival. Because of acid deposition, salmon reproduction is no longer possible in several rivers and impeded to varying degrees in most others. Chemistry data from six Southern Upland rivers show a sulfate decline between 1982 and 1996. This decline did not result in a decrease in acidity, however. Instead, pH declined from 1992 to 1996. In addition to calls for further reductions in acid deposition, liming has been used as a management tool to protect remaining salmon stocks. "Positively charged ions, such as magnesium, calcium, potassium, and sodium, that increase the pH of water when released to solution through mineral weathering and ion exchange reactions. 14Dupont, J. 1997. Projet Noranda Phase III—Effets des reductions de SO2 sur la qualite de 1'eau des lacs de 1'ouest quebecois. Ministere de I'Environnement et de lat Faune du Quebec, Direction de la qualite des cours d'eau, rapport no. Pa-53/1, Envirodoq no. EN 980066. 15Keller,W., et al. 2000. Sulphate and nitrate in Sudbury lakes: Trends and status. Cooperative Freshwater Ecology Unit, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ontario. "Department of Fisheries and Oceans. 2000. The Effects of Acid Rain on Atlantic Salmon of the Southern Upland of Nova Scotia. DFO Maritimes Regional Habitat Status Report 2000/2E. 27 ------- In 1999, the Hubbard Brook Research Foundation convened a 10-member scientific work group to assess Patterns and Effects of Acidic Deposition in the Northeastern U.S.17 The study utilized recent literature and other studies in addition to model calculations to synthesize current scientific knowledge about the extent and effects of acidic deposition in the northeastern United States. The study focused particularly on SO2. It found that, despite SO2 control measures under the 1970 Clean Air Act (CAA) and the 1990 CAAA, acidic deposition is still high and adversely affecting lakes and streams. Recovery of surface water acidity has been delayed due to effects of long-term deposition inputs on the leaching of nutrient cations such as calcium from forest soils. The report shows that decreasing atmospheric deposi- tion of sulfur during the last few decades has coincided with some decrease in the acidity of New England lakes. But little change is evident in lakes and streams of the Adirondack and Catskill regions of New York. Surveys show that 41% of lakes greater than 2.5 acres in size in the Adirondack region and 15% of lakes in New England are either acidic year round or susceptible to acidic conditions for short periods associated with high flow. Surface water acidification affects fish populations by decreasing size, number, and diversity. The study also includes computer model calculations estimating that acid-sensitive surface waters, like those in New Hampshire's Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, will not recover significantly under acidic deposi- tion reductions anticipated from the 1990 CAAA. The study's modeling projections indicate that additional emissions reductions are necessary to accelerate the recovery of forested watersheds. Forest Effects Exposure of forest ecosystems to air pollutants—and the effects these pollutants and other stressors might have on susceptible forest resources—is a major forest health issue. Both countries are cooperating to assess impacts of air pollution and acid deposition on forest ecosystems. A forest mapping initiative included in the Acid Rain Action Plan adopted by NEG/ECP builds on recent research in North America. The research shows acid deposition resulted in both acidification and depletion of nutrient cations (e.g., calcium, magnesium) essential for tree growth in relatively poor soils. This forest map- ping initiative will assist scientists in assessing risks that acid deposition poses to forest ecosystems in New England and eastern Canadian provinces. Forest research scientists from the Quebec Ministry of Natural Resources documented losses of calcium, mag- nesium, and potassium from forest soils at their inten- sive monitoring site at Foret Duchesnay near Quebec City. During the study, the watershed lost 2.5% of the available calcium pool per year and 3% of the available magnesium pool. If calcium depletion continues at this rate, the site will be calcium-deficient in 4 to 5 decades. Lake sediment analysis indicates base cations losses since the 1920s. Liming the site during a 4-year period has resulted in strong positive tree growth response. In addition, CL for forest soil acidification of the Quebec Forest Intensive Monitoring Network—known as RESEF—were calculated using the simple mass-bal- ance (SMB) approach. The CL calculations indicated that 18 of the 31 RESEF plots received atmospheric "Driscoll, C.T., et al. Acidic deposition in the Northeastern U.S.: Sources and inputs, ecosystem effects, and management strategies. Bioscience, in review. 18Houle, D., R. Paquin, C. Camire, R. Ouimet, and L. Duchesne. 1997. Response of the Lake Clair Watershed (Duchesnay, Quebec) to changes in precipitation chemistry (1988-1994). Can. J. For. Res. 27. "Moore, J.D., C. Camire, and R. Ouimet. 2000. Effects of liming on the nutrition, vigor, and growth of sugar maple at the Duchesnay forest station, Quebec, Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 30. 20Ouimet, R., L. Duchesne, D. Houle, and P.A. Arp. 2000. Critical loads of atmospheric S and N deposition and current exceedances for northern temperate and boreal forests in Quebec. Water Air Soil Pollut. (accepted). 21McLaughlin, D. 1998. A decade of forest tree monitoring in Canada: Evidence of air pollution effects. Environ. Rev. 6. 22Arp, P. A., T. Oja, and M. Marsh. 1996. Calculating critical S and N current exceedances for upland forests in southern Ontario, Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 26. 28 ------- acidic inputs in excess of their CL (55% and 61% of the hardwood and coniferous plots, respectively). The range of CL exceedance varied from 60 to 470 equivalence (eq) per hectare per year for the hardwood stands, and from 10 to 590 eq per hectare per year for the conifer- ous stands. The stands with CL exceedance were mainly located in western and central Quebec. Stand growth associated with exceedance class of acid- ity was determined using RESEF plots and selected permanent forest survey plots that had similar site characteristics and for which longer growth records were available. A significant nega- tive correlation was found between forest growth rates and exceedance of critical soil acidification for both the northern hardwood and boreal conifer sites. Specifically, plots with exceedances had a growth reduction of about 30% from 1972 to 1990 (plots with no exceedance of soil acidification served as con- trols). While this correlation is not necessarily causal, it is consistent with the notion that increased losses of soil base cations due to growing soil acidification lead to deteriorating forest health. These results correspond to growth-exceedance trend studies reported for Ontario that suggest northern hard- wood stand growth has declined by 0.66 to 0.96 cubic meters per hectare per year since the mid-1960s and that forest decline has been greatest on poorly buffered soils. The results also agree with the tree decline versus CL exceedance evaluation for southern Ontario. On the average, forest decline rates were about 30% to 40% higher for forest stands with estimated exceedances of 300 to 500 eq per hectare per year than for forest stands with no exceedance. In a broader context, from preliminary analyses based on data from Acid Rain National Early Warning System plots (ARNEWS), CL are consistently exceeded in southern and central Ontario and portions of the Maritimes. Preliminary analyses indicate that annual productivity losses of 10% are associated with areas of highest CL exceedance. In 1998, the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) initiated the Forest Indicators of Global Change Project (FIGCP). Its objectives are to: develop new early-warn- ing indicators of forest conditions; investigate interac- tions among air pollution, climate change, and forest productivity; and establish an array of permanent research/monitoring plots for detailed studies of nutrient/car- bon cycling in eastern Canada. The gradient, or study area, stretches 1,800 km and encom- passes the highest levels of acidic deposition in Canada. The area includes ecosystems receiving among the highest incidences of ground-level ozone in Canada. There is a variation of 2° to 7° Celsius of mean annual tempera- ture and a 700 to 1,500 millime- ter (mm) variation of mean annual precipitation across the gradient. The temperature and precipitation gradients will yield insight into the climate's role in influencing other stressors on forest ecosystems. In 1999, the CFS decided to focus on case studies and longer term research and monitoring linked to specific issues and poli- cy direction. The ARNEWS and North American Maple Project (NAMP) plot networks were affected. Plots within these networks, but not support- ing current investigations such as the Global Change Gradient, would be archived. Currently, 26 sites from Turkey Lakes, Ontario, to Fundy National Park, New Brunswick, supporting either adult sugar maple or adult conifers (white pine in the west, red spruce in the east), are selected for FIGCP. Eighteen were a subset of ARNEWS, and four were a subset of NAMP. Three sites were added to fill geo- graphical gaps. The sugar maple series (17 sites) and the conifer series (15 sites) were chosen to be as ecologically analogous as possible given the geographic extent. Within this gradient, plot monitoring continues, using ARNEWS protocols. During 1999, leaf surface studies were initiated on selected plots; passive ozone 29 ------- monitors were deployed and monitored across the gradi- ent. Several university and provincial government agen- cies have joined as partners in FIGCP, which will evaluate several candidate plots for inclusion in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island from 2000 to 2001. Preliminary analysis of cumulative ozone levels, meas- ured by passive ozone monitors within this gradient's plots, suggest that modeled levels extrapolated from urban-centered continuous ozone monitors consistently have underestimated actual ozone levels occurring with- in the gradient. During three separate time periods of accumulated ozone measurements from May to August 1999, the onsite passive ozone monitors recorded higher actual ozone levels when compared with the most cur- rent modeled values for the gradient area. Generally, cumulative totals were between 30 and 40 ppb. UNITED STATES The Forest Health Monitoring Program (FHM) is a joint effort among the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS), the National Association of State Foresters, and universities to address forest health and sustainability. FHM has collected data on forest health since 1991 and had expanded to include 36 states as of 2000. FHM uses ground plots and surveys, aerial sketch mapping, and satellite imagery to evaluate the status and changes of stressors and indicators of forest ecosystem conditions throughout the United States. The program evaluates stressors such as land use and forest fragmenta- tion, air pollution, drought, storms, insects and pathogens, alteration of historic fire cycles, and non- indigenous invasive species.23 Current Forest Conditions The biological condition of U.S. forests was recently evaluated, and three major geographical areas of concern were identified: the North (i.e., the Northeast, Great Lakes States, and mid-Atlantic); the Rocky Mountains (i.e., western Wyoming and northern Idaho); and the Pacific Coast (i.e., eastern Oregon and Washington and parts of California). The factors that raised concerns in these areas were the fragmentation and land use of forests, native and invasive insects and pathogens, altered fire regimes, air pollution, relatively high deterio- ration of tree crowns, and invasive plant species. In the North, the 1998 status of dieback of tree crowns was at the highest level for hardwood trees in 2% of the area and 16% of the area for softwood trees. There was a greater than 2% per year increase in dieback found in 2% of the area's softwoods and 3% of its hardwoods. Hardwood transparency was at the highest level in 8% of the area; softwood transparency was at the highest level in 19% of the area. In this same general area, annual increases of greater than 2% were found in 19% of the area's hardwoods and 8% of its softwoods. In the South, 1998 crown condition estimates indicated only a very small percentage of forest had relatively high dieback or transparency values.24 Overall, FHM found mortality ratios greater than 0.625 in 22% of forests in the North. No forest areas in the South were affected. Sulfate and Nitrate Deposition Since the last Progress Report, FHM evaluated the deposition of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, total nitro- gen, and precipitation pH in all forests in the contigu- ous 48 states from 1979 from 1995- Wet deposition of these substances were analyzed from 1979 to 1995 for all states from the NADP/NTN and CAPMoN pro- grams. The analysis estimated that relatively high sulfate deposition covered 46.2% of forest area in the North and 20.9% of forest area in the South. Relatively high nitrate deposition was estimated to cover 39-7% of for- est area in the North and 0.7% of forest area in the South. Similarly, relatively high annual ammonium dep- osition was estimated to cover 62.1% of forests in the North, 19-8% of forests in the South, and 0.8% of forests in the Rocky Mountains. Annual total nitrogen deposition was relatively high in 42.1% of forests in the North and 1.5% of forests in the South. The annual deposition of the most acidic precipitation (4.2 to 4.5 pH) covered 61% of the North and 20.4% of the South. Most forested areas in both the North (85%) and South (90.7%) received precipitation with an annu- al average pH of less than 4.8. Ground-Based Ozone Forest Effects FHM has developed an ozone monitoring plot system throughout much of the Northeast, the Great Lake 23Stolte, et al. 2000. FHM National Technical Report 2000 (1991-1998). In preparation. USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station. General Technical Documents. MStolte, K.W., et al. 2000. FHM-RPA Summary Report 2000. Forest Health. In review. USDA Forest Service, RPA 2000 Report. 25A mortality ratio of 0.6 means that for every 1.0 cubic meter of wood produced in growth, 0.6 cubic meters are lost to mortality. 30 ------- states, the mid-Atlantic, the South, and some parts of the West. Analysis of ozone air pollution from 1993 to 1996 indicated that much of the eastern and parts of the western United States were exposed to relatively high ozone. The analysis used a range ofW126 (index) values grouped into different classes to reflect the sus- pected sensitivity of tree species to ozone exposures.26 Level 1 exposures affect only the most sensitive tree species, such as black cherry. According to study results, 54% of the North and 16.6% of the South endured Level 1 exposures. Level 1 exposures also were found in the Rocky Mountain region and the Pacific Coast, but it is unclear whether tree species in drier climates are sensitive to these relatively low levels. Level 2 exposures are believed to affect slightly more tolerant tree species such as green and white ash, tulip poplar, and white pine, as well as the more sensitive Level 1 species. Level 2 exposures were estimated to occur in 44.3% of the North and 83-3% of the South. Level 2 exposures also were found in the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast regions, but it is unclear whether the western tree species are sensitive to these exposure levels. Level 3 exposures are believed to affect even more tolerant tree species such as loblolly pine, white and red Oak, American beech, and Virginia pine, as well as Level 1 and 2 species. Level 3 exposures are estimated to occur in only 0.1% of the South, 1.8% of the Rocky Mountains, and 10.5% of the Pacific Coast, mostly in the mountainous areas of southern and central California. Level 4 exposures are believed to affect all eastern tree species susceptible to Levels 1 to 3, as well as western tree species such as ponderosa pine, Jeffrey pine, and black oak. Level 4 exposures were found only in 1.6% of the Pacific Coast region, affecting the moun- tainous forests of southern California. Effects on Materials Canada and the United States continue research on the extent and nature of SO2 and NOX deposition effects on buildings and materials. Through federal research support, the U.S. National Center for the Preservation of Technology and Training (NCPTT) and the Canadian Conservation Institute will conduct studies on using lasers for conservation of cul- tural materials and on the potential benefits of laser technology in general. This research will rely on use of the newly established NCPTT-spon- sored Laser Research Facility at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art in Los Angeles. From projects generated by this col- laboration, NCPTT researchers plan to investi- gate the interaction of air pollutants with laser-cleaned stone surfaces. U.S. efforts to understand air pollutant effects on materials and cultural resources continue through NCPTT's Materials Research Program (MRP) in Natchitoches, Louisiana. The evolution of soiling pat- terns on limestone buildings is the focus of a research group at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The group's hypothesis is that soiling results from two competing processes: the deposition of pollution to the stone and the dissolution and washing of stone surfaces by rain. Studies also are being conduct- ed on changes in soiling patterns at the Cathedral of Learning Building at the University of Pittsburgh. The studies are based on examination of archival photo- graphs, analysis of soiling on architectural features, measurement of air pollutant concentrations and depo- sition, and computer modeling of rain impingement. Another NCPTT-funded project studies interactions between air pollutants and biofilms on historic lime- stone. Although it is known that air pollutants have serious detrimental effects on limestone buildings and monuments, the mechanisms of deterioration are poorly understood. A Harvard University team is heading a study looking at the role of microorganisms in lime- "Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere (SAME). 1996. The Southern Appalachian Assessment Atmospheric Technical Report. Report 3 of 5. Atlanta: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Region. 31 ------- stone degradation in the presence of air pollutants. At the July 1999 International Biodeterioration Symposium in Washington, DC, the Harvard team reported that the population of sulfur-utilizing bacteria is three times higher on stones in polluted areas than on stones in clean environments. Similarly, the number of hydrocarbon-degrading microorganisms is approximate- ly twice as high in polluted areas. Using electron microscopy studies, the team demonstrated that pollu- tants stimulate penetration of microflora into limestone. Currently, the team is examining the production of acid by these microorganisms and their ability to release cal- cium from the limestone. Health Effects The effect of SO2, NOX, and PM on human health, particularly the human heart and lungs, is being researched through various efforts and studies. Investigators from EPA's Pulmonary Toxicology Branch are continuing ongoing work with investigators from Health Canada in Ottawa to study the hematolog- ical and cardiopulmonary effects of urban particles in cardiac-compromised rats. Joint efforts are taking place to measure the various biological endpoints examined in this study. The investigators plan to study rats over a wide age range and in various stages of health and disease. elderly, and people with respiratory disorders such as asthma are particularly susceptible to health effects caused by PM10. The effect is even more accute with smaller PM 2.5 particles. Health effects include breathing and respirato- ry symptoms, irritation, inflammation and damage to the lungs, and premature death. PM is not limited to urban areas. Exposure to PM10 in Canada is demon- strated to be widespread, and it remains a problem in every region of Canada throughout the year. PM is also an effective delivery mechanism for other toxic air pollutants, which attach themselves to airborne PM. These toxics are then delivered into the lungs where they can be absorbed into the blood and tissue. In 1999, Environment Canada and Health Canada published the PM science assessment document (see www.hc-sc.gc. ca/ehp/ehd/catalogue/bch_pubs/ 99ehd220-l.htm). The science assessment adds to the numerous studies that are providing the scientific basis for action on PM by governments. Although concentra- tions of PM10 have long been associated with adverse health effects, recent studies show that these particles are responsible for premature deaths from lung and heart disease-related causes and that the population is being affected at current concentrations across the country. Scientists now believe that there is no apparent "thresh- old," or safe level for exposure to PM10. Children, the The United States has concentrated much of its health effects and risk man- agement work on PM, both exclusively and in combination with other pollutants. As discussed ear- lier (see p. 26), this program I , has been coordinated among a number of differ- ent groups and has focused on priorities identified by a National Academy of Sciences committee. Recent EPA research on PM toxicity has provided critical insight into how factors such as particle size and chemical nature might cause adverse health effects in humans. EPA also conducted research with the University of North Carolina on the health effects of PM on sensitive groups (elderly persons in Baltimore, Maryland). The research yielded insights into heart and lung functioning changes. 32 ------- Section V Conclusion Canada and the United States have not only success- fully reduced emissions of SO2 and NOX—the major contributors of acid rain—but also surpassed current reduction requirements. Acid rain was the initial focus of cooperative transboundary efforts under the Air Quality Agreement. With significant progress, both gov- ernments continue to cooperatively pursue efforts to address acid rain. During the last few years, the two governments expanded their commitments to cooperatively address transboundary air issues to include ground-level ozone and PM. This was an outgrowth of the April 1997 sign- ing of an agreement by the Canadian and U.S. environ- mental ministers to develop a Joint Plan of Action for Addressing Transboundary Air Pollution. Since the last Air Quality Committee Progress Report in 1998, the governments have made significant headway. Canada and the United States held bilateral negotiations this year to develop an ozone annex to the Air Quality Agreement, addressing their common concerns about ground-level ozone's transboundary impacts. At the same time, both governments are undertaking new cooperative efforts in PM modeling, monitoring, and data analyses to assess transboundary PM impacts and support development of a joint work plan to address PM. Following a successful decade of working together to reduce acid deposition, Canada and the United States are pursuing a new era of cooperation on additional transboundary air issues. 33 ------- ------- Appendix United States-Canada Air Quality Committee Canada United States Co-Chair: Barry Stemshorn Assistant Deputy Minister Environmental Protection Service Environment Canada Members: Marc-Denis Everell Meteorological Services Canada Environment Canada Randy Angle Air Issues & Monitoring Alberta Environmental Protection Creighton Brisco Resource Management and Environmental Protection Division Nova Scotia Environment Raynald Brulotte Service de la Qualite de 1'Atmosphere Ministere de 1'Environment Walter Chan Air Policy and Climate Change Branch Ontario Ministry of Environment Jean Cooper Energy Policy Branch Natural Resources Canada David Egar Air Pollution Prevention Directorate Environmental Protection Service Environment Canada Frank Ruddock U.S. Transboundary Relations Foreign Affairs and International Trade Co-Chair: Brooks Yeager Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Environment and Development Department of State Members: Abraham Haspel Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economics and Environmental Policy Department of Energy Charles Ries Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for European Affairs Department of State Mary Burg Program Manager Air Quality Programs State of Washington Department of Ecology Bruce Hicks Director Air Resources Laboratory National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Bruce Polkowsky Air Resources Division National Park Service Stephen Rothblatt Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 5 John Seitz Director Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 35 ------- United States Committee Members (continued) Paul Stolpman Director Office of Atmospheric Programs U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Richard Valentinetti Director Air Pollution Control Division State of Vermont Agency of Natural Resources Subcommittee on Program Monitoring and Reporting Co-Chairs: Steve Hart Director Transboundary Air Issues Branch Environmental Protection Service Environment Canada Brian McLean Director, Clean Air Markets Division Office of Atmospheric Programs Environmental Protection Agency Subcommittee on Scientific Cooperation Co-Chairs: Ann McMillan Director, Policy and International Affairs Division Meteorological Services Environment Canada Lawrence J. Folinsbee Chief, Environmental Media Assessment Branch National Center for Environmental Assessment Environmental Protection Agency 36 ------- To Obtain Additional Information. Please Contact: In Canada Transboundary Air Issues Branch Environment Canada 351 St. Joseph Boulevard 11 th Floor, Place Vincent Massey Hull, Quebec KIA OH3 Internet: www.ec.gc.ca/envhome.html In the United States Clean Air Markets Division U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Mail Code 6204] 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW. Washington, DC 20460 Internet: www.epa.gov/acidrain ------- ------- |