United State*     Office of
          Environmental Protection Research end Development
          Agency        Washington, DC 20480
EPA-600/R-94-139b

August 1994
*EPA Economic Growth
          Analysis System:
          User's Guide
          Version 2.0
    Prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
    Prepared by Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory

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                       EPA REVIEW NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and
approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily
reflect the views and policy of the Agency, nor does mention of trade names or
commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

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                                                            EPA-600/R-94-139b
                                                            August 1994
                   ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM:

                                  User's Guide

                                  Version 2.0



                                FINAL REPORT



                                  Prepared by:

                                Randy Randolph
                    TRC ENVIRONMENTAL CORPORATION
                         6320 Quadrangle Drive, Suite 100
                        Chapel Hill, North Carolina  27514
                            EPA Contract 68-D2-0181
                             Work Assignment 1/012
                         Project Officer: Sue Kimbrough
                      U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                 Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
                       Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
                                 Prepared for:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency             US. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards        Office of Research and Development
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711               Washington, DC 20460

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                                    ABSTRACT

       This guide is intended to function as a manual for Version 2.0 of the Economic
Growth Analysis System (E-GAS), which was developed under EPA Contract No.
68-D2-0181.  The objective of this report is to describe the usage of the E-GAS modeling
system. The E-GAS model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic
compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon monoxide for ozone nonattainment areas and
Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) modeling regions.

       This guide describes in detail the workings of  the E-GAS computer modeling software,
and its relationships with internal modeling software components, like Regional Economic
Models, Inc. (REMI) models, and external software, like the Regional Oxidant Model (ROM),
the Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS),  and the Urban Airshed Model (UAM). '
The guide describes all inputs to and outputs from the software, and includes a description of
all variables used by the E-GAS system.
                                        11

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                            TABLE OF CONTENTS

 Section                                                                 Page

 ABSTRACT	  ii

 LIST OF FIGURES	  v

 LIST OF ACRONYMS 	vi

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS	  vii

 1     INTRODUCTION	1-1
       1.1   Background  	1-1
       1.2   Purpose 	1_3
       1.3   Before Using the System	1-3
       1.4   Concepts and Keywords	1-3
       1.5   Program Input and User Guide Syntax	1-4
       1.6   References	l_g

 2     GETTING STARTED  	2-1
       2.1   Installing E-GAS	2-1
       2.2   Running E-GAS  	! ]  ] ] 2-1
       2.3   Main Menu	2-2
       2.4   E-GAS Utilities	. .... 2-3

 3      ECONOMIC MODELS IN E-GAS 	3-1
       3.1    Introduction  	3-1
       3.2   The BLS / REMI U.S. Forecast  	\ '  ' ' 3.1
       3.3    Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA)  	3-1
       3.4    References	3.3

4     POLICY VARIABLE CHANGES	4-1
      4.1  Introduction  	4_1
      4.2  Regular Policy Variables  	4_1
      4.3  Translator Policy Variables	4.4
      4.4  Population Variable	4.5

5     MODEL SUPPRESSIONS	5.1

6     TIER 1: THE NATIONAL MODEL	6-1
      6.1    Introduction  	6-1
      6.2    National Model Main Screen  	6-1
      6.3    Baseline Forecast  	6-2
      6.4    Main Menu	6-2
                                     in

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                          TABLE OF CONTENTS

 Chapter                                                             Page

 7     TIER 2: THE REGIONAL MODEL  	7-1
      7.1   Introduction  	7_1
      7.2   Regional Model Tier Main Screen	7-2
      7.3   Baseline Forecast	7-2
      7.4   Simulation Forecast	7_2
      7.5   Main Menu	7.3

 8     TIER 3: THE GROWTH FACTOR MODULE	8-1
      8.1   Introduction  	g.j
      8.2   Output File Selection Screens	8-2
      8.3   VMT Data Entry Sequence	8-5

 9     FOR FURTHER INFORMATION	9-1

 APPENDIX A E-GAS MODELING AREAS 	A-l

 APPENDIX B FILE FORMATS FOR E-GAS VEHICLE MILES
      TRAVELED (VMT) INPUT	B-l

APPENDIX C E-GAS OUTPUT FILES	C-l
                                   IV

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                                LIST OF FIGURES

Number                                                                       Page

2-1  Main Menu .'	2-2
2-2  E-GAS Utilities	2-3
6-1  National Model Main Screen	6-1
6-2  National Model Baseline Forecast Screen	6-2
7-1  Regional Model Main Screen 	7-2
8-1  Output File Format Selection Screen  	8-2
8-2  Output File Year Selection Screen	8-3
8-3  Output File Area Selection Screen	8-4
8-4  VMT Data Screen  	8-5
8-5  VMT Data Detail Screen  	8-6
8-6  Single Growth Factor Screen	8-7
8-7  Growth Factor by Road Type Screen	8-8
8-8  Growth Factor by Road and Vehicle Type Screen	8-9

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                         LIST OF ACRONYMS
  AEERL
  AIRS
  BLS
  CAAA
  CPI
  CSEMS
  DOS
  DRI
  E-GAS
  EPA
  EPS
  EPV
  FIPS
  GNP
  GRP
  HH
 HOMES
 INRAD
 JEIOG
 NAAQS
 NEC
 NUMOD
 OAQPS
 PCE
 RAM
 REMI
 REO
 ROM
 RFC
 RSQE
 RWM
 RWR
 SCC
 SIC
 UAM
WEFA
VGA
VMT
  Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
  Aerometric Information Retrieval System
  Bureau of Labor Statistics
  Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
  Consumer Price Index
  Commercial Sector Energy Model by State
  Disk Operating System
  Data Resources, Inc.
  Economic Growth Analysis System
  Environmental Protection Agency
  Emissions Preprocessor System
  Employees Per Dollar Added
  Federal Information Processing Standards
  Gross National Product
 Gross Regional Product
 Household
 Household Model of Energy by State
 Industrial Regional Activity and Energy Demand Model
 Joint Emissions Inventory Oversight Group
 National Ambient Air Quality Standards
 Not Elsewhere Classified
 Neural Network Electric Utility Model
 Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
 Personal Consumption Expenditures*
 Random Access Memory (main memory)
 Regional Economic Models, Inc.
 Regional Economic Opportunity
 Regional Oxidation Model
 Regional Price Coefficient
 Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics
 Relative Wage Mix
 Relative Wage Rate
 Source Classification Code
 Standard Industrial Classification
 Urban Airshed Model
Wharton Econometric Forecast
Video Graphics Adapter
Vehicle Miles Travelled
                                 VI

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                            ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by Randy Randolph, TRC Environmental Corp., for the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and  Development, Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory (AEERL) and Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
(OAQPS) under the auspices of the Joint Emissions Inventory Oversight Group (JEIOG). EPA
involvement included: E. Sue Kimbrough (Work Assignment Manager) and Larry Jones of the
AEERL Emissions and Modeling Branch; Richard Wayland of the OAQPS Technical Support
Division;  and Laurel Schultz of the OAQPS Air Quality Management Division.   Further
significant contributions to this document have been made by staff from Regional Economic
Models, Inc. (REMI), Amherst, MA, and their documents.
                                      vn

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                                     CHAPTER 1
                                  INTRODUCTION
 1.1   BACKGROUND
       The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 were signed into law on November 15,
 1990.  The  CAAA require that extreme, severe,  serious,  and  multi-state moderate ozone
 non-attainment areas use photochemical grid modeling to demonstrate future attainment with the
 ozone national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) [Section 182(e)(2)(A)].  In addition to
 photochemical grid modeling, the CAAA require that moderate, serious, severe,  and extreme
 ozone nonattainment areas submit rate-of-progress plans demonstrating a 15 percent reduction
 in  emissions from  1990 to 1996 [Section 182(b)(l)(A)].   Further, rate-of-progress plans for
 serious, severe, and extreme  areas must  include demonstration of a three percent reduction
 (averaged over three years) from 1996 until attainment is achieved [Section  182(c)(2)(B)].
       Section 182(b)(l)(A) of the CAAA specifies that the 15 percent reduction from baseline
 emissions  accounts for any growth in emissions after 1990.  A  key component of the rate-
 -of-progress plans and photochemical grid modeling demonstrations will be the development of
 credible growth factors for the existing inventories.
       When emission source growth estimates are not available by directly surveying individual
 facilities or from other local sources, surrogate growth indicators must be used.  The E-GAS
 Model is one source for these growth factors.  The EPA also endorses the use economic data to
 forecast growth in emissions.  Acceptable economic indicators are product output,  value added,
 earnings, and employment. Product output is measured in physical units; value  added is the
 difference between the  value of industry outputs and inputs; earnings denotes wage earnings in
 an  industry; and employment measures the number of workers in an industry. The emission
 projection guidance suggests that product output is the best indicator of future emission source
 growth and that its use is "preferable to any of the [other] indicators, if it is available".1  If
 product output projections are not available, value added data should be used, and if they are-not
 available, earnings data may be used. Finally, employment projections may be used,  but are not
 considered to be "an effective growth indicator in most cases."  The guidance also indicates that
 for the purposes of projecting SIP inventories, States are expected to use earnings,  value added,
 or product  output data.1
       The traditional data source for economic indicators used in projecting stationary source
 growth is the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) growth
 factors. The BEA has published Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), State and regional growth
 factors in  print and disk  formats under  the titles, Bureau  of Economic  Analysis Regional
 Projections to 2040 Volumes 1, 2, and J.2*3'4 This source includes personal income, earnings, and
 employment data for the MSAs, States, regions, and the entire United States.
       EPA guidance on projection of mobile source emissions can also be found in Procedures
for Preparing Emissions Projections,  This guidance covers highway vehicles as well as some
 non-highway mobile sources (aircraft and  railroads).  Additional guidance specific to highway
 mobile source inventory forecasting and tracking for CO nonattainment areas is  contained in
 Section 187 VMT Forecasting and Tracking Guidance, a document required by Section 187 of
 the Clean Air Act Amendments.5  These two documents discuss the same basic  methods and
 sources for mobile source projections.  In order of preference, these include:
                                         1-1

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 1.     Use of projections based on a network-type travel demand model for the area of concern

 2.     Use of projections based on data generated by the Federal Highway Administration
       (FHWA) Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) for the subject area

 3.     Use of "any reasonable methodology" for areas not covered by HPMS

 The Procedures for Preparing Emissions Projections  states that the preferred method for
 performing VMT projections for on-road mobile sources  is to use a validated travel demand
 model.  Travel demand models are locality-specific computerized models which simulate travel
 on a network representing an area's transportation system.  The number of cities with a current
 travel demand model is limited and there are many nonattainment areas without such models.
 purposes alone may not be warranted. For areas  that do  not have a validated travel demand
 model, this guidance permits VMT projections to be based on the FWA's HPMS.  For areas
 outside the domain of a travel demand  model and/or  HPMS reporting area, the use  of an
 historically-based extrapolation  method is allowed.  An example trend projection method,
 requiring the quantifying of road mileage  and associated VMT, is outlined; however, details on
 these methodologies are not provided.
       Since growth in source emissions  largely depends  on  the amount of economic activity
 growth in an area, a consistent set of growth factors requires forecasts  using consistent Gross
 National Product (GNP) forecasts and a consistent methodology for estimating economic activity
 in Urban Airshed Model (UAM) and Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) modeling regions.  The
 need for consistent economic growth factors, however, must be satisfied hi a way that allows
 States to use their own estimates of national  and  regional economic activity.  The Economic
 Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) is an economic and activity forecast model which satisfies
 both of these standards.
       Inventories for rate-of-progress plans and photochemical modeling will be housed in the
 Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS).  E-GAS can be applied to AIRS inventories
 for the development of emission projections to 2010, when extreme areas must reach attainment.
 State users can create custom regional forecasts by modifying input assumptions for the regional
 models in the E-GAS system.
       The E-GAS modeling system contains three tiers. The first tier includes available national
 economic  forecasts which are used to drive the regional  economic models. The second tier
 includes regional economic models for the UAM modeling areas, as well as the States in the
 ROM modeling regions. The third tier estimates fuel consumption, physical output, and vehicle
 miles traveled (VMT) based on the second tier's regional economic forecasts. The tiers must be
 sequentially  executed, since data  are created by  early tiers for transfer to later tiers.  The
three-tiered structure of E-GAS allows users flexibility in modeling. Although a tier must be run
before proceeding to later tiers, the system allows the models to be rerun at the user's discretion.
For example, users may run the national model using either BLS or WEFA forecasts before
performing regional  modeling on the last  national model run.
                                         1-2

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      PURPOSE

       The purpose of this User's Guide is to provide a guide through the E-GAS system. This
 chapter introduces the terminology used with the system as well as the syntax and format of the
 program and user's guide.  Chapter 2 discusses the  use of E-GAS by explaining the logical
 progression of the program, presenting sample screens, providing explanations of input formats,
 and describing the E-GAS utilities found throughout the system.  Chapter 3 describes the role of
 national economic models in E-GAS and the two options available to the user.  Chapter 4 first
 explains the general function of E-GAS's policy variables, then describes the specific variables
 while explaining their input. Chapter 5 describes the role of model suppressions in E-GAS and
 describes all suppressions available to the user.  Chapter 6 describes the operation and type of
 data required for the E-GAS National Model (Tier 1).  Chapter 7 provides similar descriptions
 of the Regional Model (Tier 2), and Chapter 8 describes the third tier, the Growth Factor Module.
 Chapter 9 identifies contacts for further information regarding the operation  of E-GAS and the
 logic of the system.
       This document only addresses the use of the E-GAS model for economic and emissions
 modeling.  Background material regarding economics and econpmic forecasting techniques are
 available from a variety of sources, including the E-GAS Reference Manual.6

 13  BEFORE USING THE SYSTEM

       The program has been designed for an IBM-compatible personal computer environment.
 The system requires the following minimum hardware configurations:

        •    IBM 80386 or 100 percent compatible personal computer

        •    Math coprocessor

        •    580 Kilobytes of Free Conventional Memory

        •    100 Megabytes  of available fixed disk storage

        •    VGA graphics capabilities

             DOS 5.0 or higher

        •    5l/4 or 3V4 inch floppy disk drive

1.4  CONCEPTS AND KEYWORDS

       The following definitions  present the major keywords and expressions as used in this
guide.

       Baseline Forecast:  The default economic activity forecast without any policy variable
changes.
                                         1-3

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      Demand Data: Demand for products is usually measured in dollars and in many models
is considered equal to the level of spending for a type of product.  Final demand represents the
demand for a finished product. Regional consumer and government spending are representative
of final demand in  an area.  In contrast, industrial demand  for products is typically for
subsequent use in producing another product.
       Growth Factor Module:  The third tier of E-GAS.  This system translates economic
activity data from the first two tiers into Source Classification Code (SCC)-level  growth factors.
       Model Response Suppression: When running a regional simulation in E-GAS the user
is given the option of suppressing model responses. Such suppressions dissolve links between
key elements of the  model, thus changing the simulation.
       National REMI Forecast:  An economic activity forecast for the entire United States.
The user is given the choice of two forecasts: Bureau of Labor  Statistics (BLS) and Wharton
Econometrics Forecasting Associates (WEFA).
       Policy Variables: E-GAS provides policy variables that can be used in scenario testing
for a region. Changing policy variables  allows the user to  simulate the economic impact of
anticipated government policy changes, market changes, or other exogenous  changes to the
regional economy. The effect of a policy change is the difference between a baseline forecast
and the simulation forecast with policy variable changes.
       Regional REMI Model: An economic model for a subset, or region, of the country.
       Relative Costs/Prices:  Some of the policy variables that can be defined in E-GAS are
described as relative costs or prices.  In these cases, the default cost per unit represents the
average cost for the nation and is standardized to a value of one (1). Therefore, only the relative
change  in cost  needs to be entered, rather than the actual local cost.  If default =1.0 and a
10 percent increase in the price of gasoline was entered, it would indicate a relative gasoline cost
of 1.1.  A 10 percent decrease would indicate a 0.9 relative cost.
       REMI Model:  An economic model  developed by Regional  Economic Models,  Inc.
REMI models are incorporated into E-GAS to forecast economic activity.
       Simulation Forecast:  An economic activity forecast allowing  policy variable changes.
Model responses can be suppressed in  the simulation  forecasts.   If model responses are
suppressed in a simulation, a baseline forecast is also created using the model suppression.
       Tiers: E-GAS is a series of three related tiers. The tiers must be executed consecutively,
but may be run any  number of times before proceeding to the next.  The tiers are as follows:

• Tier 1: National Economic Forecast
• Tier 2: Regional Economic Forecast
• Tier 3: Growth Factor Computations

1.5  PROGRAM INPUT AND USER GUIDE SYNTAX

       E-GAS is a menu-driven system that guides the user through a series of screens which
collect information for adapting the model to the user's needs. User input is limited to selecting
menu items and setting parameters by entering data in text boxes.
       It should be noted that, in both the E-GAS system and this guide, references to specific
computer keys are enclosed with < > symbols, such as: the Escape key is identified as , and the function keys use  notation.
                                         1-4

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I
                   Menu screens offer choices regarding progress through E-GAS.  Vertical and horizontal
             movement is brought about with the cursor control keys (Up, Down, Left, and Right arrows).
             These screens only offer choices of data entry screens or other menu screens. Cursor keys are
             used to highlight the desired choice.  The  key  is then pressed to select the option.
             Pressing the highlighted letter in the choice can also select the option.
                   Text boxes allow users to answer system questions necessary for model execution. Data
             can be entered by basic typing, edited with the  and cursor keys, and accepted with
             the   key.
                                                       1-5

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 1.6  REFERENCES
 1.
 2.
 3.
4.
5.
6.
 US^ Department of Commerce.  BEA Regional Projections to 2040, Volume 1- States
 Bureau of Economic Analysis. Washington, DC.  1990.

 U.S. Department of Commerce.  BEA Regional  Projections to 2040  Volume  2-
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Washington, DC '  1990.

U.S. Department of Commerce.  BEA Regional Projections to 2040,  Volume 3- BEA
Economic Areas. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Washington, DC.  1990

                                     1-6

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                                    CHAPTER 2
                                GETTING STARTED

2.1  INSTALLING E-GAS

       E-GAS can be installed through the following steps:

       1.     Placing the E-GAS Program Diskette 1 in the appropriate disk drive.

       2.     Switching to the floppy disk drive containing the E-GAS diskette.
                    e.g.:  A:

       3.     Running the Install Program.
                    e.g.:  INSTALL

       4.     Following instructions printed to the screen to select installation disk and path.

       The install routine will create the specified directory on the destination (fixed) disk drive.
If no directory is entered the install routine will create  an \EGAS directory. Once installation
is complete, the E-GAS system will automatically be started and the title screen will appear.

2.2  RUNNING E-GAS

       After E-GAS has been installed, the system can  easily be run by:

       1.     Setting the default drive to the fixed disk containing E-GAS.
                    e.g.:  C:

       2.     Setting the default directory to the one chosen when installing the system.
                    e.g.:  CD \EGAS

       3.     Typing EGAS at the DOS prompt.

Upon successful start-up of the system, the title screen is presented, asking the user to press any
key to continue.
                                         2-1

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 23   MAIN MENU
       After leaving the title screen, the user arrives at the E-GAS Main Menu.
........ '"'••'"• ..... ' ..... ' Euuiiumiu GruwUi Ana IMS is

E-GftS    E-COS    E-GflS    E-GflS    E-GflS     E-GflS    E-GflS

  E ens    E ens    E ens    E ens    E ens     EGOS    EG
    E-GflS    E-GflS

      E ens    E ens








    ns    E ens    E ens    E ens

    E fiflS    E-BflS    E RflS
        pcjiona I Economic Forecaet  £
        rnwth FantnrCnnjpntatinils •, |
        •rint User flssiimptinns   '•'":, j
        'Imnt E-HftS                 i
                                                        E-CAS    E-GAS    E

                                                          E-GflS     E-CftS

                                                     !-naS     E-GHS     E-GftS

                                                      E-GRS    E-GflS     E-G

                                                        E-GAS    E-GfiS    E

                               iTsrciir^EnsE^cns    E ens     E  ens

                                  E nns    F. nns    E PJIS     E nns     E  IMS

E-CflS    E-GftS    E-CflS    E-GAS    E-GAS    E-GAS    E-GAS    E-CflS     E-G

  E-GftS    E-GRS    E-GflS    E-CBS    E-GaS    E-GflS    E-GftS    E-GHS    E
                               Figure 2-1. Main menu.
       The user can advance to the major tiers of E-GAS through the Main Menu.  Options can
be chosen by pressing the first letter of the option name or by highlighting the choice  and
pressing the  key.  The Main Menu's options are as follows:

National Economic Forecast: This option allows the user to create a national-level economic
forecast and is Tier 1 of the three-part process of creating estimated growth factors; it generates
data to drive the Regional Economic Forecast (Tier 2).  This tier may be rerun any number of
times  before proceeding to Tier 2. Use of the national model is discussed in Chapter 6 of this
guide.

Regional Economic Forecast:  This choice allows the user to develop a regional economic
forecast.  This is Tier 2 of the three-part process of creating estimated growth factors  which
generate data to drive the Growth Factor Computations (Tier 3).  This tier may be rerun any
number of times before proceeding to Tier 3.  Use of the regional model is discussed in Chapter
7 of this guide.

Growth Factor Computations:  This is the  third tier where growth factors are generated and
written to files in the current subdirectory.  Tier 3 is discussed in Chapter 8.
                                          2-2

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Print User Assumptions:  This option prints the user assumptions.1

About E-GAS: This provides a summary of the E-GAS program and its components.

Exit: This option returns the user to the operating system after leaving E-GAS.

2.4  E-GAS UTILITIES

       Several features are available to E-GAS users throughout the three tiers of the system.
These features are available to users whenever they are indicated on the information bars. The
screen below, from the Regional Model Tier, illustrates some of these options.

   Begional Model
                             Figure 2-2.  E-GAS utilities.
The E-GAS utilities include:
       Help screens summarizing system operation
       User Assumptions under which the model is currently being run
       Abort Execution option
2.4.1  Help

       Pressing  while running E-GAS or  from the menu will display help text or a
menu of topics associated with the part of E-GAS currently being used. When the system is at
the menu, the Help screen is a menu from which the user can highlight the preferred topic and
                                         2-3

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 select it for review by pressing .  The  Help provides information about the specific

 topic  and its reation to  the current  execution point  of the system.  Hdp  sc^n'  Se

 instructions on closing the help function and returning to regular system



 2.4.2  User Assumptions
 which rSSi^ Wl?IC "T118 E"GAS retUmS information on the user assumptions under
 which the model is operating. The assumptions-including the chosen national model chanees
 m policy variables, and model response suppressions-are'summarized in

                  * presented for ^ current tier' if ii has previ°usiy
2.4.3 Abort Execution
        ^^ lwhile me system « performing calculations will end the data


       E    USef t0r! TenU ^  ^ 1S C°nVenient When to user rea1^ that
to- has been misspecified through choice of an inappropriate model, policy variable


Z fmreSP°nSe SUPP™/  Ab0rtinS execution °f E-GAS calculations does not unne
data from previous runs of the current tier or data from other tiers                   '"ermine

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                                    CHAPTERS
                          ECONOMIC MODELS IN E-GAS
3.1  INTRODUCTION
       E-GAS is designed such that growth factor projection scenarios for each nonattainment
 area and attainment portion of States can be made using a common assumption about future U.S.
 economic activity.  The national economic forecasts in E-GAS can provide a common forecast
 with which to forecast regional economic growth.  The nature of ozone formation requires
 attention to the location as well as the level of economic activity.  National forecasts provide
 estimates of total economic activity. The regional model will distribute this activity among U.S.
 urban areas, States, and regions. The spatial characteristics of the regional forecasts are designed
 to meet the needs of the photochemical models used by the ozone nonattainment areas.
       A major component of the E-GAS  system is the REMIEDFS-14 economic model. The
 major  advantage of the REMI system is  its ability to  distribute modeled national growth to
 smaller modeling regions comprising the United States. The REMI model  also contains a
 national economic growth model, which creates national growth projections  for distribution by
 the regional model.  The REMI national model can create forecasts from its own data or other
 compatible national forecasts.  E-GAS allows the user to specify  national  macroeconomic
 forecasts to produce the outputs necessary to run the regional model.
       In the REMI regional models, growth is affected by a number of factors, including the
 performance of the national economy and the relative costs  of doing business in the modeled
 region. The relative costs of doing business are determined endogenously, although the user may
 simulate policies which would affect the relative costs in a region. The growth or decline of the
 national economy, however, is determined outside of the regional model.1 The choice of national
 forecast is left solely to the user. This choice can have a large impact on the estimates of growth
 in the region being modeled.

 3.2  THE BLS / REMI VS. FORECAST

       The REMI U.S. forecast is  based  on the BLS Trend-2000 forecast.  The BLS forecast
 provides "fundamental information" for use in the REMI national and  regional  models.  The
 methodology  for projecting U.S. final demand by industry relies on the creation of technical
 coefficient  matrices for each historical  and  forecasted year.  This  methodology involves
 developing an input-output model for the  years for which BLS provides input-output accounts
 (1982,1986, and 2000).2 The BLS forecasts include employment and output by industry,  as well
 as Gross National Product (GNP). The final demand components of the BLS forecast are used
to drive the input-output models, resulting  in a prediction of intermediate demand for and output
by industries.
3.3  WHARTON ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING ASSOCIATES (WEFA)

      The WEFA Group produces short- and long-term economic forecasts of U.S. economic
activity. The short-term forecasts range from 10 to 13 quarters (2.5 to 3.25 years) and are issued
monthly. The long-term forecasts are 25-year forecasts which are issued quarterly. In addition

                                        3-1

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to the baseline short-term forecast, the WEFA Group provides two alternative forecasts focusing
on macroeconomic risks and their probable effects on industries. The 25-year forecasts include
trend, cycle, and two alternative forecasts.3
       The WEFA Group uses Mark 9, a quarterly economic  model  developed at WEFA, to
produce its short- and long-term forecasts.  The model is comprised of over 1200 equations and
contains a "satellite"  industry model which produces detailed industrial forecasts using outputs
from the core macroeconomic model.4  The Mark 9 model contains the following nine major
sectors:

1.     Personal Consumption Expenditures
2.     Fixed Investment
3.     Inventory Investment
4.     Government
5,     International Trade
6.     Labor Market
7.     Wages and Prices
8.     Financial Market
9.     Income

Variables included in the WEFA model include consumption, investment, income, and inflation
data from the National Income and Product Accounts; population, employment, and wage rate
data from the BLS; industrial production  data from the Federal Reserve Board; and demand,
production, and price data for the auto, housing, and energy sectors of the economy.4
       The long-term economic forecasts are issued in a two-volume report.  The first volume
of the  report covers  the trend or moderate growth scenario and contains an overview of the
forecast results and detailed sector reviews of the population, housing, investment, government,
inflation, labor market, industrial activity, and energy forecasts in addition to tables detailing the
sector forecasts.4
       The REMI models  may be run using 92 forecasted variables from WEFA.  These 92
variables include 25 final demand variables. WEFA also forecasts housing and energy variables
which may be used in E-GAS development and simulations.  Mark 9 forecasts  detailed energy
price, supply, demand, and consumption variables.  The model also forecasts housing variables
including housing starts, sales, stocks, and prices.
                                         3-2

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3.4  REFERENCES
1.    Regional Economic Models, Inc.  Operator's Manual for a Single Region EDFS-14
      Conjoined Forecasting  and Simulation Model.   REMI Reference Set,  Volume 2.
      Amherst, MA. 1991.

2.    Shao, G., and G.  Treyz.  Building a U.S.  and Regional Forecasting and Simulation
      Model.  Research Paper. Regional Economic Models, Inc. Amherst, MA.  1991.

3.    Randall, T., Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. Telecon with Teresa Lynch,
      Alliance Technologies Corporation.  April 1992.

4.    Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. Mark 9 Model Reference.  The WEFA
      Group. Bala Cynwyd, PA. January 1990.
                                       3-3

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                                    CHAPTER 4
                          POLICY VARIABLE CHANGES
 4.1   INTRODUCTION

       By changing policy variables, the user is allowed to simulate the economic impact of
 anticipated government policy changes,  market changes, or other exogenous changes to the
 regional economy.  The effect of a policy change is the difference between a baseline forecast
 and the simulation forecast with policy variable changes.
       In the E-GAS model, there are over 100 regular economic policy variables, translator
 policy variables (which control combinations  of economic policy variables), and population
 variables that can be adjusted. These variables are accessed from the REMIEDFS-14 model and
 offer  scenarios for  changes in tax rates (corporate profit tax, equipment tax, investment tax,
 personal income tax, and property tax), costs (including relative production cost, import cost, and
 export cost), wage rate, employment transfer payments, purchasing power, and final demand.
       Policy variables have default  values for baseline scenarios.  Variables that describe
 additive changes have defaults of 0 and multiplicative variables use 1 for the default. Therefore,
 entered values for additive changes will represent the injection (of dollars, employees, etc.) into
 the economy and values for multiplicative phenomena will represent the ratio of the new value
 (cost,  tax points, etc.) to the default.
      The policy variables in E-GAS are grouped into three categories, regular economic policy
variables, translator variables, and population variables. Variable changes may have any number
of decimal places  and may be positive  or  negative.   These categories are broken into
subcategories containing the individual variables that  can be changed by the user. Category,
 subcategory, and variable descriptions follow.  The numbers in parentheses  are two-digit SICs
which apply to the policy variable.

4.2  REGULAR POLICY VARIABLES
Employment
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
 DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
 NONDUR.<20-23,26-31)
 MINING(10,12-14)
 CONSTRUCnON(15-17)
 TRANSP+PUB UT(4
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sector.  The value entered should be in thousands (1000s) of employees.

Non-government Final Demand
FINAL DEM - PCE AUTOS & PARTS
FINAL DEM - PCE FURN & HH EQUP
FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER DURABLES
FINAL DEM - PCE FOOD & BEVERAGES
FINAL DEM - PCE CLOTHING AND SHOES
FINAL DEM - PCE GASOLINE & OIL
FINAL DEM - PCE FUEL OIL & COAL
FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER NONDURABLES
FINAL DEM - PCE HOUSING
FINAL DEM - PCE HSEHLD OPERATION
FINAL DEM - PCE TRANSPORT + PUB UT
FINAL DEM - PCE HEALTH SERVICES
 FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER SERVICES
 FINAL DEM - INV RESIDENTIAL
 FINAL DEM - INV NON RESIDENTIAL
 FINAL DEM - INV PROD DUR EQUIP
Autos and Parts
Furniture and Household Equipment
Other Durables
Food and Beverages
Clothing and Shoes
Gasoline and Oil
Fuel Oil and Coal
Other Nondurables
Housing
Household Operation
Transportation and Public Utilities
Health Services
Other Services
Residential Investment
Nonresidential Investment
Durable Equipment Investment
        Non-government final demand represents consumer spending and investment in the region.
 The combination of this section and government spending represents final demand for the region.
 Intermediate demand for products  to subsequently be used in industry is not included.  This
 section can be used to anticipate economic impacts of changes in consumer behavior.  For
 example, the economic effects of introducing appealing, popular electric automobiles could be
 explored by deflating the consumer spending for gasoline and oil increasing the Transportation
 and Public Utilities (in areas where electricity is publicly provided). Consumer demand/spending
 should be entered as millions of dollars.
 Government Final Demand

 FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC-EDUC
 FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC HLTH/WLFAR
 FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC SAFETY
 FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC OTHER
 State and Local Government Education
 State and Local Government Health and Welfare
 State and Local Government Public Safety
 State and Local Government Other
       Government Final Demand represents the public sector's purchase of finished products.
 For example, purchase of new fire-fighting equipment would represent government spending for
 safety, but any  increases  in  staff expenses would  represent an increase  in employment.
 Government demand/spending should be entered as millions of dollars.
                                        4-2

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Relative Cost Change

REL COST CHANGE - DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
REL COST CHANGE - NONDUR.(20-23,26-31)
REL COST CHANGE - MINING(10,12-14)
REL COST CHANGE - CONSTRUCTION 15-17)
REL COST CHANGE - TRANSP+FUB UT(40-49)
REL COST CHANGE - FIN, INS.+ RE(60-67)
REL COST CHANGE - RETAIL TRADE(52-59)
REL COST CHANGE - WHOLESALE TR(50,51)
REL COST CHANGE - SERVICE(70-79,80-89)
REL COST CHANGE - AGRI/F/F SERV(07-09)
                                     Durable Goods
                                     Nondurable Goods
                                     Mining
                                     Construction
                                     Transportation and Public Utilities
                                     Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
                                     Retail Trade
                                     Wholesale Trade
                                     Services
                                     Agriculture, Farm, and Fishing Services
       Relative cost change represents changes in production costs due to a policy change. The
relative change in costs can be entered as millions of dollars per year or as percent change, where
entering -1.0 would decrease the value by one percent and entering 1.0 would increase it by one
percent. The choice of dollars or percent must be used for all changes within a single simulation.
Cost changes from additional health regulations placed on agriculture, therefore, would involve
entry of a positive value for the AGRI/F/F variable.
Industry Demand
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE-
CHANGE
DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
NONDUR.(20-23,26-31)
MllNriNG(10,12-14)
CONSTRUCT1ON(15-17)
TRANSP+PUB UT(4
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Tax Rates

CORPORATE PROFIT TAX RATE
EQUIPMENT TAX RATE
INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT
Corporate Profit Tax Rate
Equipment Tax Rate
Investment Tax Credit
       Changes in business tax rates attributable to policy changes are entered as the change in
percentage points charged.
PERSONAL TAXES
Personal Taxes
       Changes in personal taxes attributable to policy changes are entered as the change in
millions of dollars collected.
Purchasing Power

CHANGE IN PURCHASING POWER
Change in Purchasing Power
       Purchasing power represents the amount of disposable income available to consumers.
The value entered represents the decrease in purchasing power experienced by consumers.
Therefore, the decrease in a community's disposable income associated with automobile tire
disposal fees would be entered as a positive number.  Changes in the purchasing power of
consumers are entered as millions of dollars.

4.3  TRANSLATOR POLICY VARIABLES

       Translator policy variables can be used to automatically change the series of regular
economic policy variables associated with the output of a variety of industrial/service/government
sectors. These changes may be entered as millions of nominal or real dollars. The choice of
nominal or real dollars must be applied to all changes within a single simulation.

New Utilities and Facilities

NEW COMMUNICATIONS FAdLmES
NEW ELECTRIC UTILITY FAOUTIES
NEW WATER SUPPLY AND SEWER FACILITIES
NEW GAS UTILITY AND PIPELINE FAdLTnES
NEW ROADS
NEW LOCAL TRANSIT FACILITIES
NEW CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES

       Changes in production from new utilities and facilities can be simulated by entering the
changes in spending in millions of dollars.
                                         4-4

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 Transit

 LOCAL GOVERNMENT PASSENGER TRANSIT
 STATE AND LOCAL ELECTRIC UTILITIES
 STATE AND LOCAL GOVT ENTERPRISES, NEC

       Changes in production from transit and other public enterprises can be simulated by
 entering the changes in spending in millions of dollars.

 Purchase of Electricity and Natural Gas

 ELECTRICITY; PCE
 NATURAL GAS; PCE

       Changes in the final demand for electricity and natural gas should be entered as millions
 of dollars.

 Local Transportation Expenditures

 BUS AND TROLLEY CAR TRANSPORTATION; PCE
 TAXICABS; PCE
 COMMUTER RAIL TRANSPORTATION-, PCE
 RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION; PCE
 INTERCITY BUS; PCE

      Changes in final demand for the various modes of local transportation should be entered
 in millions of dollars.

 State and Local Government Expenditures

 ELEMENTARY AND SECON.. EDUCATION; STATE & LOCAL GOVT (SL GOVT)
 HIGHER EDUCATION; SL GOVT
 OTHER EDUCATION AND LIBRARIES; SL GOVT
 HEALTH AND HOSPITALS; SL GOVT
 PUBLIC ASSISTANCE AND RELIEF; SL GOVT
 SEWERAGE; SL GOVT
 SANITATION; SL GOVT
 POLICE; SL GOVT
 FIRE; SL GOVT
 CORRECTIONS; SL GOVT
 HIGHWAYS; SL GOVT
 WATER AND AIR FACILITIES; SL GOVT
TRANSIT UnLTTIES; SL GOVT
 OTHER COMMERCE AND TRANSPORTATION; SL GOVT
 GAS AND ELECTRIC UTIUnES; SL GOVT
 WATER; SL GOVT
URBAN RENEWAL AND COMMUNITY FACILITIES; SL GOVT
NATURAL AND AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND RECREATION; SL GOVT
                                     4-5

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       Changes in final demand for the services of local  government should be entered in
 millions of dollars.

 4.4   POPULATION VARIABLE

 POPULATION AMENITY TERM

       The population amenity term represents changes in the quality of life and appeal of a
 region. This term is an indicator for the morbidity, crime, visibility or other characteristics of
 a region.  This is defined as a real wage gain to individuals moving into and out of the area
 (migrants)  and can be interpreted as the portion of a migrant's salary that is equivalent to the
 quality of living in the area.
       The values for the population amenity term are entered as the equivalent proportion of
 migrant earnings gained in quality of life. For example, if it is estimated that migrants value the
 effects of certain pollution control measures at one half of one percent of their income  then the
 entered value should be 0.5. If the negative environmental  and convenience effects of reducing
public transit is equivalent to losing one percent of the migrants' income, then the entered value
should be -1.0.
                                        4-6

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                                    CHAPTERS
                              MODEL SUPPRESSIONS

       When running a regional simulation in E-GAS, the user is given the option of suppressing
 model responses.  Such suppressions dissolve links between key elements of the model. Model
 suppressions  are designed to provide  flexibility in modeling policy changes, therefore model
 suppressions  cannot be  imposed during  baseline forecasts  and should only be imposed in
 conjunction with a policy variable change in a simulation forecast.  The decision to suppress
 model responses should be carefully considered, since changes in the structure of the model can
 reverberate throughout the forecasting process and undermine the credibility of the results. The
 available model suppressions are described below.

 Wage Response Suppression: If this response is suppressed, the wage rates in the baseline
 forecast and the simulation will not be  connected to changes in occupational demand or changes
 in relative economic opportunity (REO).

 Labor Intensity Response Suppression:  If this is suppressed, labor intensity in the baseline
 forecast and in the simulation is not influenced by local determinants of the labor force, but
 instead maintains the value appearing for the most recent year recorded by the model.

 Net Migration Response Suppression: If this is suppressed, net migration will not respond to
 changes in REO, relative wage rate (RWR), and relative wage mix (RWM) and will be kept at
 zero in the baseline forecast and the simulation.

 Regional Price Coefficients* (RFC) Response to Gross Regional Product (GRP) and SeUing
 Price Suppression:  When this is suppressed, the regional purchase coefficients are fixed for the
 baseline forecast and simulated at the value appearing for the most recent year recorded by the
 model.

 Regional  Price Coefficients' (RFC) Response to Gross  Regional  Product  (GRP) Only
 Suppression:  This suppression changes  exogenous RFC response to GRP to endogenous
 response (as  output expands, RPC's  will increase, and vice versa), but retains endogenous
 response to selling price  with either setting.

Export Response Suppression:  If this is suppressed,  exports  will not respond to changes in
relative costs  or changes in profitability.

Consumer Price Index CPI-WAGE Response Suppression:  When this is suppressed, increases
in the consumer price index (CPI) are  not transmitted to wages.

House-Land Price Response Suppression: If this response is suppressed, house price and land
price will not fluctuate with the market, but will be fixed  in the forecast years with the value
appearing for the most recent year recorded by the model.
                                         5-1

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Property Income Response to Population Suppression: If this response is suppressed, property
income will not respond to a change in the population density (population of the region relative
to the United States).

Transfer Payment Response to Dependent Population Suppression:  Similar to property
income, transfer payments will not respond to a change in the dependent population of the region
relative to the United States.

Local Consumption Suppression: If it is suppressed, local consumption will not respond to a
change in the real disposable income of the region relative to the United States in the forecast
years.

Investment Suppression: If this response is suppressed, investment will not respond to changes
in the local optimal capital stock.

Changing the Default Status of Stock Adjustment Investment Process:  This option changes
default Stock Adjustment Investment Process' status (either replaces old investment equations
with stock adjustment  investment equations, or vice  versa).   Use of the stock adjustment
investment equations leads to more immediate investment impacts  during  simulations.  The
short-term properties will also differ.

Government Demand  Response to Population Suppression:  If this response is suppressed,
government demand will not respond to a change in the population of the region relative to the
United States.

Changing the Default Status of Employees Per Dollar Value Added (EPV): Endogenous EPV
will endogenize productivity so that when output increases, productivity will increase accordingly
in the short run. This results in less new employment in the initial years of a simulation.
                                          5-2

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                                   CHAPTER 6
                        TIER 1: THE NATIONAL MODEL
6.1  INTRODUCTION
      The national tier of E-GAS provides forecasts of national economic activity to drive the
regional economic models and, subsequently, the growth factor tier.  The user may choose one
of the two forecasts (BLS or WEFA) to create the national forecast.  The growth forecasted by
this model is then distributed among and within regions in Tier 2.  The national tier may be
changed and rerun any number of times before proceeding to Tier 2. Unless the user chooses
to change the  national forecast, the national model data need to  be  run  only once before
advancing to or subsequently rerunning  the Regional Tier;  output from the National Tier is
maintained through multiple runs of subsequent tiers. Model responses may be suppressed in the
national model.  Any national model suppressions should also be chosen for the regional model
and caution should be exercised before choosing any suppressions (see Chapter 5).

6.2   NATIONAL MODEL MAIN SCREEN

      Upon entering the subsystem, the  user is presented with this screen:
           HELP*
Bab't; I i ne Fureuas I
Main Htfiiu
                      Figure 6-1.  National model main screen.
                                        6-1

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       At the top of the screen are options that can be selected by pressing the first letter of the
 option or highlighting the choice and pressing the  key. These options are discussed
 in Sections 6.3 and 6.4.  The E-GAS Utilities found in the information bar at the bottom of the
 screen are described in Section 2.4.

 6.3  BASELINE FORECAST

       Choosing the Baseline Forecast option from the National Model Main Screen leads to
 the display of this screen:
                                                                  Main MKIIU
   iwarii

                  Figure 6-2.  National model baseline forecast screen.
       The menu items are the two national forecasts which can be baseline forecasts. These
forecasts include:

       BLS:     Bureau of Labor Statistics
       WEFA:  Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates

Further information on these forecasts can be found in this tier's help screens and Chapter 3 of
this guide.

6.4  MAIN MENU

       Choosing the Main Menu option from the National Model Main Screen returns the user
to the E-GAS Main Menu.
                                         6-2

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                                     CHAPTER?
                         TIER 2: THE REGIONAL MODEL
7.1  INTRODUCTION
       The regional tier of E-GAS will provide economic forecasts for the UAM and ROM
modeling regions. E-GAS will include separate economic forecasts for extreme, severe, serious,
and moderate multi-state ozone nonattainment areas, as well as models for the attainment portions
of these States. In addition, an economic model for each State in a ROM modeling region will
be included in E-GAS.
       The regional tier, Tier 2, takes input from the National Model and cannot be run unless
that model has been run at least once. Tier 2 can be adjusted and rerun any number of times
without rerunning the national tier, unless the user wishes to change the national forecast.  The
regional tier must be run before proceeding to the Growth Factor Computations tier.
       Model responses can be suppressed in a regional simulation. A baseline forecast is run
automatically using the model suppressions before the requested simulation is run.
       A  Baseline forecast  must be generated within Tier 2.   Baseline forecasts use the
REMI/E-GAS default settings to distribute growth within the region.  Simulation forecasts  may
be run if the user wishes to change policy  variables for any area within their region (policy
variables are described in Chapter 5).  Tier 2 may be run several times before proceeding to the
growth factor computations (Tier 3): the latest regional model run will drive the growth factor
computations.   The user may abandon the simulation forecast by running another baseline
forecast and advancing to the Growth Factor Computations. If the national forecast needs to be
changed,  the user should return to Tier 1.
                                         7-1

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7.2  REGIONAL MODEL TIER MAIN SCREEN
       This is the regional model's main screen:
   i •
                                     <1.>lSi:S!-iJ-t1Nrf, *• ' i-ivh .« "*rf7-' - X«*V*' - -;•,, ov"-.-, , ,•.••• J -,,,, • vS™^.'?^...^^''.)!..*' .•„,;,, ™«*u:^.,,[v^ ,,«•»;!*
                       Figure 7-1.  Regional model main screen.
       At the top of the screen are four options that can be selected by pressing the first letter
of the option or highlighting the choice and pressing the  key.  With the exception of
the HELP option, these options are discussed in Sections 7.3 through 7.5.  The E-GAS Utilities
found in the information bar at the bottom of the screen are described in Section 2.4.

73   BASELINE FORECAST

       Choosing the Baseline Forecast option from the Regional Model Main Screen causes
E-GAS to take the parameters from the selected national economic forecast and apply them to
the regional modeling program. Upon completion of the regional baseline, the user is returned
to the Regional Model Tier Main Screen.

7.4   SIMULATION FORECAST

       Regional simulation forecasting cannot be executed until a regional baseline scenario has
been run. Choosing the Simulation Forecast option from the Regional Model Main Screen, after
having run the baseline, leads to a sequence of screens soliciting input.
                                         7-2

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     •  The user must provide additional information to execute simulation forecasts in Regional
Simulation Forecasting.  The system requires the user to enter the ending year, as well as any
model suppressions (see Chapter 5 for an explanation of model suppressions). The user may then
change one or more policy variables for any of the  areas within the user's region (Chapter 4
describes the E-GAS policy variables).  Multiple policy variable changes should be made with
caution since excessive changes would distort any causality between results and policy variable
changes
       After supplying all of the required additional information, the system processes the data
and returns the  user to the Regional Model Main Screen.

7.5  MAIN MENU

       Choosing the Main Menu option from the Regional Model Main Screen returns the user
to the E-GAS Main Menu.
                                          7-3

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                                   CHAPTERS
                    TIER 3: THE GROWTH FACTOR MODULE

 8.1  INTRODUCTION

       The growth factor tier in E-GAS translates changes in the economic activity levels of the
 most recent regional forecast to growth factors for physical output, fuel consumption, and VMT.
 These growth factors will be developed for two-, three-, and four-digit SIC levels depending on
 available data for developing and disaggregating the factors. These SIC-level growth factors will
 be matched with SCC codes. The final output from this tier will be ASCII files containing SCC
 growth factors to be used for AIRS inventories.
       The growth factor tier cannot be run unless tiers 1 and 2 have been run, generating the
 economic data necessary for energy consumption calculation.  Tier 3  uses the following six
 modules to calculate the activity growth factors from the diverse economic data produced by the
 first two  tiers:

  •     Household Model of Energy by State (HOMES)
  •     Commercial.Sector  Energy Model by State (CSEMS)
  •     Industrial Regional  Activity and Energy Demand (INRAD) Model
  •     Neural Network Electric Utility Model (NUMOD)
  •     Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Module
  •     Physical Output Module

      E-GAS's crosswalk module translates the energy consumption factors to point, area, and
 mobile SCC growth factors. The output ASCII files are named:

      RES_FUEL.SCC          HOMES / residential fossil fuel
      COM_FUEL.SCC         CSEMS / commercial fossil  fuel
      IND_FUEL.SCC          INRAD / industrial fossil fuel
      ELECTRIC.SCC          NUMOD / electric growth factors
      VMT.SCC                VMT / transportation
      PHY.SCC                PHYSICAL OUTPUT / industrial output
      OTHER.SCC              Growth for unclassified SCC's

The user  can exit E-GAS to read and print the E-GAS output (SCC) files with an ASCII file
reader/editor.
                                       8-1

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 8.2  OUTPUT FILE SELECTION SCREENS
       The user has the opportunity to choose the layout of the E-GAS output files. The first
 data entry screens of the Growth Factor Tier allow the user to choose the years and counties to
 be included in the output files.

 8.2.1  Output File Format Selection Screen

       This screen follows the User Assumption screen series:
                               niit.piit Fi IR Fnrmats
                               EF5 Format
                               2-dii]it SIC Furmal
                              	 Tl, «—' ur Esu —-
                    Figure 8-1. Output file format selection screen.
      The user should use the up and down cursor keys to highlight desired format and press
the  key.  Three output formats are available:


 •    Standard E-GAS Format: The output data is aggregated by Source Classification Code
      and is prefaced with a header describing the modelling regions represented; selected
      policy variable changes and model suppressions; and the date and time that the file was
      generated.
 •    EPS Format:  The input format for the Emission Preprocessor System for the Urban
      Airshed Model. This format does not include the data header found in  the Standard
      E-GAS Format.
                                         8-2

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  •    2-digit SIC Format:  Output data is aggregated by Standard Industrial Classification
       instead  of Source Classification  Code. This format includes a header describing  the
       modelling regions represented; selected policy variable changes and model suppressions;
       and the date and time that the file was generated.

 All three output formats are standard text files that can be read with text editors or imported into
 analytical software. After the user has chosen a format, E-GAS proceeds to the Output File Year
 Selection Screen.  The E-GAS Utilities found in the information bar at the bottom of the screen
 are described in Section 2.4.

 8.2.2  Output File Year Selection Screen

       This screen appears after the file format has been chosen:
                                    YKdi'H Hvailabib:
                                        1001
                                        1002
                                        1993
                                        1994
                                        1995
                                        IRRfi
                                        1937
                                    Tl, «—' nr Tisn
                      Figure 8-2. Output file year selection screen.
       The user should use up and down cursor keys to highlight desired years—or the All Years
option—and mark the highlighted selection by pressing the space bar. The user should press the
 key when all of the desired choices have been marked.  E-GAS then proceeds to the
Output File Area selection screen.  If All Years is one of the marked choices, the system will
ignore any individual year selections and print data for all of the available years.
       The size of the output files will be significantly smaller if only the desired areas, counties,
and years are selected.
                                           8-3

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 8.23  Output File Area/State/County Selection Screens

       After the years to be included in output have been selected, the desired areas of the REMI
 region can be chosen.
                      r	~—" Available Areas	———
                          Boston firea
                          Greater Connecticut ftrea
                          Portsmouth ftrea
                          Prouidence flrea
                          Springfield flrea
                          Rp.st nf Nfidi Hampshirfi flrRa
                          Tl srrnll, «— ' sfilents,
                      Figure 8-3. Output file area selection screen.
       The up and down cursor keys may be used to highlight desired areas—or the All Model
Areas option—and mark the highlighted selection by pressing the space bar.  The user should
press the  key when all of the desired choices have been marked.
       After the user chooses the area of interest, states and counties within the chosen area can
be selected through similar screens.  If there is only one  county hi the chosen  state/area
combination, it is automatically selected  and the county selection screen is not displayed. The
system proceeds to the VMT Data Source Screen after the areas, states, and counties have been
chosen.
                                           8-4

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8.3  VMT DATA ENTRY SEQUENCE

       The user has several options for entering VMT data. The user can enter data from the
keyboard or through user-prepared files. The E-GAS VMT module can be chosen, avoiding any
need for user data, or the VMT section can be omitted from E-GAS if no VMT output is needed.
83.1  VMT Data Source Screen

       The following is the first screen in the VMT data entry sequence:
                    Do you want to use the E-CflS UMT forecast?
                       (Select one option and press return)
                 II  HSR K-CH5 UWT rmrliilfi
                 7.1  Entfir nsp.r IffT gr ninth fant.nrR f rnm thR kRuhnarrt
                 3)  Enter user WT growth factors from a file
                 4)  Skip WT seuliun
                                  EnLwr
                                     Esc exits
                            Figure 8-4. VMT data screen.
       If the user selects the E-GAS VMT module or elects to skip the VMT module, the system
proceeds to calculate the output files and returns to the Main Menu. If the Enter user VMT
growth factors from the keyboard or Enter user VMT growth factors from a file is chosen, the
system advances to the VMT Data Detail Screen.  Pressing 
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 8.3.2  VMT Data Detail Screen
       When the Enter user VMT growth factors from the keyboard or Enter user VMT growth
factors from a file options are chosen from the VMT Data Screen, this screen is produced:
                  Be I knap Comity :

                                  Select one option

                  1 1  Hiifi grnurt.il f antnr f nr a 1 1 UMT SCC.S
                  2)  Hrnuitli fantnrs hy mart type
                  3)  Growth factors ton road tupe and vehicle
                  4)  Nu iiruwlli faulorb fur Lliib uuuiiln
                                   Enlttr
                                   — Esc exits —
                          Figure 8-5. VMT data detail screen.
       This screen is used to choose the VMT data inputs which are appropriate for the level of
detail found in the user's  data.  The higher levels of detail are accommodated by the choices
found lower on the list. When Enter user VMT growth factors from a file has been chosen from
the VMT Data Screen, the user is prompted for the file name; if Enter user VMT growth factors
from the keyboard is chosen, the system moves to the appropriate VMT data entry screen.
                                          8-6

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833  VMT Data Entry Screens
       After defining the VMT data table, a screen for entering data into the table is provided.
 The user can accept the entered data by pressing  or exit by pressing 
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FACTOR
                          ROffl) TYPE
                   Interstate :  Rura I
                   nthfir Principal  flrtfirial:  Rural
                   Minnr firtRrial:  Rural
                   Major Cnl Ifirtnr : Kural  Tnt.al
                   Minor Collector: Rural  Total
                   Luca I : Kurd I
                   IiiLyrsLaLK : Urban
                   Qlbur Fi'Hwukiijb: & E.xjJi-wtitJWrty« :  UrLau
                   Other Principal  flrterial:  Urban
                   Minor Orterial:  Urban
                   Cnl Ifintnr: Urban
                   Loca I : Urban
            Select Road IMPS    Saue    EH it Uithout Sauinej =
                    Figure 8-7.  Growth factor by road type screen.
       Select each road type by using the  in the USE column.  An X will appear
in the USE column and the cursor will automatically tab over to the factor column.  Pressing
<£nter> will send the cursor to the next road type selection in the USE column.
                                         8-8

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              =. Growth Factors by Uahicle and Road Types for VearJL991 =
           LDCU    1.  Interstate:  Rural                   C 3  '$£££$"".,
           LDHU    ?..  Other Principal ftrt.Hrial; Rural      FT  ^Milll')v*?
           I.tlHU    3.  Minor flrtfirial: Rural                FT  ^p^^  a
           OHU    4.  Major CnllRntnr: Rural Total         FT  ^ a D n«-™;-i
           LDGU    5.  Minor Collector: Ktiral Total         C ]  "
           LDGU    6,  Luual: Rural                         C ]
           LDGU    7.  Iiilei-bUle: UrLaii                    C ]
           LDGU    8.  OUiyr Frwwwciyti & ExprHSswciyii = Urbaii  C 1
           LDGU    0.  Other Principal firteriali Urban      L ]
           LDGU   1Q.  Minor Hrterial; Urban                F 3
           T.DRU   11.  Cnllfir.tnr: llrh.in                     F 3
           LDCU   12.  Local: Urban                         F. 3
       =  Select  Tl Scroll    Saue    Exit Without Sauing
              Figure 8-8.  Growth factor by road and vehicle type screen.
       Select each vehicle/road type by using the .  An X will appear in the USE
column and the cursor will automatically tab over to the factor column. Pressing  will
send the cursor to the next vehicle/road type selection. The left column identifies vehicle types.
The types found in E-GAS include:

LDGV  - Light Duty Gasoline Vehicle
LDGT1 - Light Duty Gasoline Truck  1
LDGT2 - Light Duty Gasoline Truck  1
LDGT  - Light Duty Gasoline Truck Total
HDGV  - Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicle
LDDV  - Light Duty Diesel Vehicle
LDDT  - Light Duty Diesel Truck
HDDV  - Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle
                                         8-9

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                                   CHAPTER 9
                         FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
       In the event that the on-line help function and this user's guide are unable to answer
questions about E-GAS, please call Sue Kimbrough of the Environmental Protection Agency at
(919) 541-2612 or write to

                               Sue Kimbrough
                               AEERI7MD-62
                               U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                               Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

Please have the following information available:

•      Hardware issues
             hardware configuration
             type of computer
             amount of available memory
             display type
             peripherals
•      Any memory-resident software used—including network drivers
•      The version of DOS being used
•      Specific description of the problem
                                       9-1

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     APPENDIX A




E-GAS MODELING AREAS
         A-l

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MODELING AREA 1:  EPA REGION 1

Boston-Lawrence-Worcester Nonattainment Area: Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex,
       Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties, MA; Hillsborough
County,  NH (Rockingham County included in Portsmouth, NH area model).
Greater CT Nonattainment Area: Hartford, Middlesex, New Haven, New London, Tolland,
and Windham Counties, CT (Litchfield and Fairfield Counties included in  Region 2/3
NYC area model).
Portsmouth-Dover-Rochester Nonattainment Area:  Rockingham and Strafford Counties, NH
Providence Nonattainment Area:  All of Rhode Island
Springfield (Western MA) Nonattainment Area:  Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, and
       Hampshire Counties, MA
Attainment Portion of New Hampshire
State of Maine
State of Vermont
MODELING AREA 2:  EPA REGIONS 2 AND 3

New York-New Jersey-Long Island Nonattainment Area: Fairfield and Litchfield Counties,
CT; Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterton, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean,
Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, and Union Counties, NJ; Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York,
Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester Counties,   NY
Baltimore Nonattainment Area: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore, Carroll, Hartford,
and Howard Counties, MD
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Nonattainment Area:  Kent and New Castle Counties, DE;
Cecil County MD; Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester Mercer, and Salem
Counties, NJ; Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia Counties, PA
Washington, D.C. Nonattainment Area: District of Columbia; Calvert, Charles, Fredrick,
      Montgomery, and Prince George's Counties, MD; Alexandria City, Arlington, Fairfax,
Fairfax City, Fall Church City, Loudoun, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Prince
William's, and Stafford Counties, VA
Huntington-Ashland (WV-KY) Nonattainment Area:  Boyd and Greenup Counties, KY and
Cabell and Wayne Counties, WV
Attainment Portion of New York
Attainment Portion of New Jersey
Attainment Portion of Pennsylvania
Attainment Portion of Delaware
Attainment Portion of Virginia
Attainment Portion of West Virginia
Attainment Portion of Maryland
                                       A-2

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MODELING AREA 3: EPA REGION 4                   .

Atlanta Nonattainment Area:  Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Cowete, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette,
Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding, and Rockdale Counties, GA
Louisville (KY-IN) Nonattainment Area:  Clark and Floyd Counties, IN and Bullit, Jefferson,
and Oldham Counties, KY
Attainment Portion of Kentucky
Attainment Portion of Georgia
State of Tennessee
State of North Carolina
State of Mississippi
State of Alabama
State of South Carolina
State of Florida
MODELING AREA 4:  EPA REGION 5

Chicago-Gary-Lake County Nonattainment Area: Cook, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall,
Lake, McHenry, and Will Counties, IL and Lake and Porter Counties; IN.
Milwaukee-Racine Nonattainment Area: Kenosha, Milwaukeee, Ozaukee, Racine,
       Washington, and Waukesha Counties, WI
Muskegon Nonattainment Area:  Muskegon County, WI
Sheboygan Nonattainment Area:  Sheboygan County, WI
Cincinnati- Hamilton (OH-KY) Nonattainment Area: Boone, Campbell, and Kenton Counties,
       KY and Butler, Clennont, Hamilton, and Warren Counties, OH
St. Louis Nonattainment Area: Madison, Monroe, and St. Clair Counties, IL and Franklin,
Jefferson, St. Charles, St. Louis City,  and St. Louis Counties, MO
Attainment Portion of Illinois
Attainment Portion of Indiana
Attainment Portion of Wisconsin
Attainment Portion of Ohio
Attainment Portion of Michigan
State of Minnesota
                                        A-3

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  MODELING AREA 5: EPA REGION 6

  Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Area: Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston
        Hams, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller Counties, TX                          '
  Baton Rouge Nonattainment Area: Ascension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston Point
  Coupee, and West Baton Rouge Parishes, LA
  Beaumont-Port Arthur Nonattainment Area: Hardin, Jefferson, and Orange Counties TX
  El Paso Nonattainment Area: El Paso County, TX
  Attainment Portion of Texas
  Attainment Portion of Louisiana
  State of New Mexico
  State of Oklahoma
  State of Arkansas
 MODELING AREA 6:  EPA REGION 7

 Attainment Portion of Missouri
 State of Kansas
 State of Nebraska
 State of Iowa
MODELING AREA 7: EPA REGIONS 8 AND 10

State of Colorado
State of Utah
State of Wyoming
State of North Dakota
State of South Dakota
State of Montana
State of Idaho
State of Oregon
State of Washington
                                      A-4

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MODELING AREA 8: EPA REGION 9

Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin Nonattainment Area: Los Angeles, Monterey, Orange,
Riverside, San Benito, San Bemadino, Santa Cruz Counties, CA
San Diego Nonattainment Area:   San Diego County, CA
Ventura County Nonattainment Area:  Ventura County,  CA
Sacramento Metro Nonattainment Area:  El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, and
Yolo Counties, CA
San Joaquin Valley Nonattainment Area: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin,
      Stanislaus, and Tulare Counties, CA
Attainment Portion of California
State of Nevada
State of Arizona
                                       A-5

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I

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          APPENDIX B

FILE FORMATS FOR E-GAS VEHICLE
  MILES TRAVELED (VMT) INPUT
             B-l

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 E-GAS VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED (VMT) INPUT FILE FORMAT

 Filename: chosen by user

 1. For one growth factor for all VMT SCCs.

      FORMAT:
            STATE  COUNTY YEAR   FACTOR

 2. For one growth factor for each road type.

      FORMAT:
            STATE  COUNTY YEAR   ROAD TYPE     FACTOR

      ROAD TYPE CODES:
            11 - Interstate - Rural
            13 - Other principal arterial - Rural
            15 - Minor Arterial - Rural
            17 - Major Collector - Rural Total
            19 - Minor Collector - Rural Total
           21 - Local Rural
           23 - Interstate - Urban
           25 - Other freeways and expressways - Urban
           27 - Other principal  arterial - Urban
          29 - Minor arterial - Urban
          31  - Collector - Urban
          33  - Local - Urban

3.  For one growth factor for each road and vehicle type combination.
     FORMAT:
          STATE
COUNTY YEAR  ROAD TYPE     VEHICLE TYPE  FACTOR
     ROAD TYPE CODES:
          11 - Interstate - Rural
          13 - Other principal arterial - Rural
          15 - Minor Arterial - Rural
          17 - Major Collector - Rural Total
          19 - Minor Collector - Rural Total
          21 - Local Rural
          23 - Interstate - Urban  .
          25 - Other freeways and expressways - Urban
          27 - Other principal arterial - Urban
          29 - Minor arterial - Urban
          31  - Collector - Urban
          33  - Local - Urban
                                    B-2

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      VEHICLE TYPE CODES:
           1001 - Light duty gasoline vehicle
           1020 - Light duty gasoline truck 1
           1040 - Light duty gasoline truck 2
           1060 - Light duty gasoline truck total
           1070 - Heavy duty gasoline vehicle
           0001 - Light duty diesel vehicle
           0060 - Light duty diesel truck
           0070 - Heavy duty diesel vehicle
 where:
      STATE
      COUNTY
      YEAR         s
      ROAD TYPE    :
      VEHICLE TYPE
      FACTOR
2-digit Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code
3-digit FIPS code
4-digit year
2-digit road type code
4-digit vehicle type code
Growth Factor (e.g., .1,  1.1, 1.12, 1.123, etc.)
NOTE:  When creating this file, at least one space must exist between each
field.  Since the system is capable of handling floating decimal points, the
growth factor character length and position of the decimal is flexible. In
addition, do not use the following fUe names when creating the VMTfUe:
VMTJ)UT.DAT or VMT_OUT.SCC.  These file names are created by the
system when processing either the EGAS default VMT data or when
processing user supplied VMT data. Using these file names could cause a
loss of data or could cause the system to crash.
                                     B-3

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    APPENDIX C



E-GAS OUTPUT FILES
       C-l

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STANDARD E-GAS OUTPUT
Commercial Fuel Combustion File
Electric Utility Fuel Combustion File
Industrial Fuel Combustion File
Miscellaneous Point and Area Source Processes File
Point Source and Area Source Processes (Manufacturing) File
Residential Fuel Combustion File
Mobil Source (VMT) File
FILENAME.EXTENSION
COMM_FUEL.SCC
ELECTRIC.SCC
IND_FUEL.SCC
OTHER.SCC
PHY.SCC
RESJ7UEL.SCC
VMT_OUT.SCC
EPS OUTPUT
Point Source File
Area/Mobile Source File
FILENAME.EXTENSION
PROJECT.PTS
PROJECT.AMS
2.DIGIT SIC OUTPUT
Commercial Fuel Combustion File
Electric Utility Fuel Combustion File
Industrial Fuel Combustion File
Point Source and Area Source Processes (Manufacturing) File
FILENAME.EXTENSION
COM.FUEL.SIC
ELECTRIC.SIC
IND_FUEL.SIC
PHY.SIC
C-2

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                                TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                          (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
 1. REPORT NO.
  EPA-600/R-94-139b
                           2.
                                                       3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
 Economic Growth Analysis System: User's Guide,
    Version 2.0
                                   5. REPORT DATE
                                    August 1994
                                   6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
 7. AUTHOR(S)

 Randy Randolph
                                   8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.

                                    CH-93-121
 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
 TRC Environmental Corporation
 6320 Quadrangle Drive,  Suite 100
 Chapel Hill,  North Carolina 27514
                                                       10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                                   11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
                                    68-D2-0181
 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
 EPA, Office of Research and Development
 Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
 Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
                                    13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                    Task Final; 10/93 - 5/94
                                   14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                                     EPA/600/13
 is. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES  AEERL project officer is E. Sue Kimbrough, Mail Drop 62,  919 /
 541-2612. The report consists of a Reference Manual and a User's Guide, that cancel
 and supersede EFA-600/R-93-Q67a and -Q67b and related disks.	
 IB. ABSTRACT
               two-volume report describes the development of, and provides infor-
 mation needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version
 2.0 model.  The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile orga-
 nic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen  (NOx),  and carbon monoxide (CO) for
 ozone nonattainment areas and Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) modeling regions.
 The report details the design and development of E-GAS and includes detailed des-
 criptions of the workings of the E-GAS  computer modeling software components and
 external software. The system is an economic and activity forecast model that trans-
 lates the user's assumptions  regarding  regional economic policies and resource pri-
 ces into Source  Classification Code (SCC)  level growth factors.  The report  provides
 E-GAS users with sufficient background information to define and calibrate the E-GAE
 model, as well as the procedures and syntax necessary to operate the system. The
 organization of the user's manual is determined by the process used in operating the
 system, providing images of  sample screens  as well as text.
 7.
                             KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                 DESCRIPTORS
                                           b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                                c. COSATI Field/Group
 Pollution
 Economics
 Growth
 Analyzing
Inventories
Nitrogen Oxides
Carbon Monoxide
Ozone
Pollution Control
Stationary Sources
Volatile Organic Com-
  pounds (VOCs)
 Mathematical Models  Volatility
 Emission          Organic Compounds
13B    15E
05C    07B
06P.06C
14B
12A    20M
14G    07 C
 8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

 Release to Public
                       19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport}
                        Unclassified
                                                                    21. NO. OF PAGES
                            54
                       20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
                        Unclassified
                                                22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                 C-3

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U,S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
    Office of Research and Development
  Center for Environmental Research Information
           Cincinnati. Ohio 45266

          OFFICIAL BUS I NESS
   PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE. S3OO
  AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER
                                     If Your address is incorrect, pfease change on the above label
                                     tear off; and return to the above address.
                                     If you do not desire to continue receiving these technical
                                     reports, CHECK HERE D. tear off label, and return it to the
                                     above address.
                                    Publication  No. EPA- 600/11-94-139

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