United State* Office of
Environmental Protection Research end Development
Agency Washington, DC 20480
EPA-600/R-94-139b
August 1994
*EPA Economic Growth
Analysis System:
User's Guide
Version 2.0
Prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Prepared by Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
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EPA REVIEW NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and
approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily
reflect the views and policy of the Agency, nor does mention of trade names or
commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
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EPA-600/R-94-139b
August 1994
ECONOMIC GROWTH ANALYSIS SYSTEM:
User's Guide
Version 2.0
FINAL REPORT
Prepared by:
Randy Randolph
TRC ENVIRONMENTAL CORPORATION
6320 Quadrangle Drive, Suite 100
Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514
EPA Contract 68-D2-0181
Work Assignment 1/012
Project Officer: Sue Kimbrough
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Prepared for:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency US. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Office of Research and Development
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 Washington, DC 20460
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ABSTRACT
This guide is intended to function as a manual for Version 2.0 of the Economic
Growth Analysis System (E-GAS), which was developed under EPA Contract No.
68-D2-0181. The objective of this report is to describe the usage of the E-GAS modeling
system. The E-GAS model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile organic
compounds, oxides of nitrogen, and carbon monoxide for ozone nonattainment areas and
Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) modeling regions.
This guide describes in detail the workings of the E-GAS computer modeling software,
and its relationships with internal modeling software components, like Regional Economic
Models, Inc. (REMI) models, and external software, like the Regional Oxidant Model (ROM),
the Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS), and the Urban Airshed Model (UAM). '
The guide describes all inputs to and outputs from the software, and includes a description of
all variables used by the E-GAS system.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page
ABSTRACT ii
LIST OF FIGURES v
LIST OF ACRONYMS vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vii
1 INTRODUCTION 1-1
1.1 Background 1-1
1.2 Purpose 1_3
1.3 Before Using the System 1-3
1.4 Concepts and Keywords 1-3
1.5 Program Input and User Guide Syntax 1-4
1.6 References l_g
2 GETTING STARTED 2-1
2.1 Installing E-GAS 2-1
2.2 Running E-GAS ! ] ] ] 2-1
2.3 Main Menu 2-2
2.4 E-GAS Utilities . .... 2-3
3 ECONOMIC MODELS IN E-GAS 3-1
3.1 Introduction 3-1
3.2 The BLS / REMI U.S. Forecast \ ' ' ' 3.1
3.3 Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA) 3-1
3.4 References 3.3
4 POLICY VARIABLE CHANGES 4-1
4.1 Introduction 4_1
4.2 Regular Policy Variables 4_1
4.3 Translator Policy Variables 4.4
4.4 Population Variable 4.5
5 MODEL SUPPRESSIONS 5.1
6 TIER 1: THE NATIONAL MODEL 6-1
6.1 Introduction 6-1
6.2 National Model Main Screen 6-1
6.3 Baseline Forecast 6-2
6.4 Main Menu 6-2
in
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter Page
7 TIER 2: THE REGIONAL MODEL 7-1
7.1 Introduction 7_1
7.2 Regional Model Tier Main Screen 7-2
7.3 Baseline Forecast 7-2
7.4 Simulation Forecast 7_2
7.5 Main Menu 7.3
8 TIER 3: THE GROWTH FACTOR MODULE 8-1
8.1 Introduction g.j
8.2 Output File Selection Screens 8-2
8.3 VMT Data Entry Sequence 8-5
9 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION 9-1
APPENDIX A E-GAS MODELING AREAS A-l
APPENDIX B FILE FORMATS FOR E-GAS VEHICLE MILES
TRAVELED (VMT) INPUT B-l
APPENDIX C E-GAS OUTPUT FILES C-l
IV
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
2-1 Main Menu .' 2-2
2-2 E-GAS Utilities 2-3
6-1 National Model Main Screen 6-1
6-2 National Model Baseline Forecast Screen 6-2
7-1 Regional Model Main Screen 7-2
8-1 Output File Format Selection Screen 8-2
8-2 Output File Year Selection Screen 8-3
8-3 Output File Area Selection Screen 8-4
8-4 VMT Data Screen 8-5
8-5 VMT Data Detail Screen 8-6
8-6 Single Growth Factor Screen 8-7
8-7 Growth Factor by Road Type Screen 8-8
8-8 Growth Factor by Road and Vehicle Type Screen 8-9
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LIST OF ACRONYMS
AEERL
AIRS
BLS
CAAA
CPI
CSEMS
DOS
DRI
E-GAS
EPA
EPS
EPV
FIPS
GNP
GRP
HH
HOMES
INRAD
JEIOG
NAAQS
NEC
NUMOD
OAQPS
PCE
RAM
REMI
REO
ROM
RFC
RSQE
RWM
RWR
SCC
SIC
UAM
WEFA
VGA
VMT
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
Aerometric Information Retrieval System
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
Consumer Price Index
Commercial Sector Energy Model by State
Disk Operating System
Data Resources, Inc.
Economic Growth Analysis System
Environmental Protection Agency
Emissions Preprocessor System
Employees Per Dollar Added
Federal Information Processing Standards
Gross National Product
Gross Regional Product
Household
Household Model of Energy by State
Industrial Regional Activity and Energy Demand Model
Joint Emissions Inventory Oversight Group
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
Not Elsewhere Classified
Neural Network Electric Utility Model
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Personal Consumption Expenditures*
Random Access Memory (main memory)
Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Regional Economic Opportunity
Regional Oxidation Model
Regional Price Coefficient
Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics
Relative Wage Mix
Relative Wage Rate
Source Classification Code
Standard Industrial Classification
Urban Airshed Model
Wharton Econometric Forecast
Video Graphics Adapter
Vehicle Miles Travelled
VI
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This document was prepared by Randy Randolph, TRC Environmental Corp., for the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, Air and Energy
Engineering Research Laboratory (AEERL) and Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
(OAQPS) under the auspices of the Joint Emissions Inventory Oversight Group (JEIOG). EPA
involvement included: E. Sue Kimbrough (Work Assignment Manager) and Larry Jones of the
AEERL Emissions and Modeling Branch; Richard Wayland of the OAQPS Technical Support
Division; and Laurel Schultz of the OAQPS Air Quality Management Division. Further
significant contributions to this document have been made by staff from Regional Economic
Models, Inc. (REMI), Amherst, MA, and their documents.
vn
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 were signed into law on November 15,
1990. The CAAA require that extreme, severe, serious, and multi-state moderate ozone
non-attainment areas use photochemical grid modeling to demonstrate future attainment with the
ozone national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) [Section 182(e)(2)(A)]. In addition to
photochemical grid modeling, the CAAA require that moderate, serious, severe, and extreme
ozone nonattainment areas submit rate-of-progress plans demonstrating a 15 percent reduction
in emissions from 1990 to 1996 [Section 182(b)(l)(A)]. Further, rate-of-progress plans for
serious, severe, and extreme areas must include demonstration of a three percent reduction
(averaged over three years) from 1996 until attainment is achieved [Section 182(c)(2)(B)].
Section 182(b)(l)(A) of the CAAA specifies that the 15 percent reduction from baseline
emissions accounts for any growth in emissions after 1990. A key component of the rate-
-of-progress plans and photochemical grid modeling demonstrations will be the development of
credible growth factors for the existing inventories.
When emission source growth estimates are not available by directly surveying individual
facilities or from other local sources, surrogate growth indicators must be used. The E-GAS
Model is one source for these growth factors. The EPA also endorses the use economic data to
forecast growth in emissions. Acceptable economic indicators are product output, value added,
earnings, and employment. Product output is measured in physical units; value added is the
difference between the value of industry outputs and inputs; earnings denotes wage earnings in
an industry; and employment measures the number of workers in an industry. The emission
projection guidance suggests that product output is the best indicator of future emission source
growth and that its use is "preferable to any of the [other] indicators, if it is available".1 If
product output projections are not available, value added data should be used, and if they are-not
available, earnings data may be used. Finally, employment projections may be used, but are not
considered to be "an effective growth indicator in most cases." The guidance also indicates that
for the purposes of projecting SIP inventories, States are expected to use earnings, value added,
or product output data.1
The traditional data source for economic indicators used in projecting stationary source
growth is the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) growth
factors. The BEA has published Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), State and regional growth
factors in print and disk formats under the titles, Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional
Projections to 2040 Volumes 1, 2, and J.2*3'4 This source includes personal income, earnings, and
employment data for the MSAs, States, regions, and the entire United States.
EPA guidance on projection of mobile source emissions can also be found in Procedures
for Preparing Emissions Projections, This guidance covers highway vehicles as well as some
non-highway mobile sources (aircraft and railroads). Additional guidance specific to highway
mobile source inventory forecasting and tracking for CO nonattainment areas is contained in
Section 187 VMT Forecasting and Tracking Guidance, a document required by Section 187 of
the Clean Air Act Amendments.5 These two documents discuss the same basic methods and
sources for mobile source projections. In order of preference, these include:
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1. Use of projections based on a network-type travel demand model for the area of concern
2. Use of projections based on data generated by the Federal Highway Administration
(FHWA) Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) for the subject area
3. Use of "any reasonable methodology" for areas not covered by HPMS
The Procedures for Preparing Emissions Projections states that the preferred method for
performing VMT projections for on-road mobile sources is to use a validated travel demand
model. Travel demand models are locality-specific computerized models which simulate travel
on a network representing an area's transportation system. The number of cities with a current
travel demand model is limited and there are many nonattainment areas without such models.
purposes alone may not be warranted. For areas that do not have a validated travel demand
model, this guidance permits VMT projections to be based on the FWA's HPMS. For areas
outside the domain of a travel demand model and/or HPMS reporting area, the use of an
historically-based extrapolation method is allowed. An example trend projection method,
requiring the quantifying of road mileage and associated VMT, is outlined; however, details on
these methodologies are not provided.
Since growth in source emissions largely depends on the amount of economic activity
growth in an area, a consistent set of growth factors requires forecasts using consistent Gross
National Product (GNP) forecasts and a consistent methodology for estimating economic activity
in Urban Airshed Model (UAM) and Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) modeling regions. The
need for consistent economic growth factors, however, must be satisfied hi a way that allows
States to use their own estimates of national and regional economic activity. The Economic
Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) is an economic and activity forecast model which satisfies
both of these standards.
Inventories for rate-of-progress plans and photochemical modeling will be housed in the
Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS). E-GAS can be applied to AIRS inventories
for the development of emission projections to 2010, when extreme areas must reach attainment.
State users can create custom regional forecasts by modifying input assumptions for the regional
models in the E-GAS system.
The E-GAS modeling system contains three tiers. The first tier includes available national
economic forecasts which are used to drive the regional economic models. The second tier
includes regional economic models for the UAM modeling areas, as well as the States in the
ROM modeling regions. The third tier estimates fuel consumption, physical output, and vehicle
miles traveled (VMT) based on the second tier's regional economic forecasts. The tiers must be
sequentially executed, since data are created by early tiers for transfer to later tiers. The
three-tiered structure of E-GAS allows users flexibility in modeling. Although a tier must be run
before proceeding to later tiers, the system allows the models to be rerun at the user's discretion.
For example, users may run the national model using either BLS or WEFA forecasts before
performing regional modeling on the last national model run.
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PURPOSE
The purpose of this User's Guide is to provide a guide through the E-GAS system. This
chapter introduces the terminology used with the system as well as the syntax and format of the
program and user's guide. Chapter 2 discusses the use of E-GAS by explaining the logical
progression of the program, presenting sample screens, providing explanations of input formats,
and describing the E-GAS utilities found throughout the system. Chapter 3 describes the role of
national economic models in E-GAS and the two options available to the user. Chapter 4 first
explains the general function of E-GAS's policy variables, then describes the specific variables
while explaining their input. Chapter 5 describes the role of model suppressions in E-GAS and
describes all suppressions available to the user. Chapter 6 describes the operation and type of
data required for the E-GAS National Model (Tier 1). Chapter 7 provides similar descriptions
of the Regional Model (Tier 2), and Chapter 8 describes the third tier, the Growth Factor Module.
Chapter 9 identifies contacts for further information regarding the operation of E-GAS and the
logic of the system.
This document only addresses the use of the E-GAS model for economic and emissions
modeling. Background material regarding economics and econpmic forecasting techniques are
available from a variety of sources, including the E-GAS Reference Manual.6
13 BEFORE USING THE SYSTEM
The program has been designed for an IBM-compatible personal computer environment.
The system requires the following minimum hardware configurations:
• IBM 80386 or 100 percent compatible personal computer
• Math coprocessor
• 580 Kilobytes of Free Conventional Memory
• 100 Megabytes of available fixed disk storage
• VGA graphics capabilities
DOS 5.0 or higher
• 5l/4 or 3V4 inch floppy disk drive
1.4 CONCEPTS AND KEYWORDS
The following definitions present the major keywords and expressions as used in this
guide.
Baseline Forecast: The default economic activity forecast without any policy variable
changes.
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Demand Data: Demand for products is usually measured in dollars and in many models
is considered equal to the level of spending for a type of product. Final demand represents the
demand for a finished product. Regional consumer and government spending are representative
of final demand in an area. In contrast, industrial demand for products is typically for
subsequent use in producing another product.
Growth Factor Module: The third tier of E-GAS. This system translates economic
activity data from the first two tiers into Source Classification Code (SCC)-level growth factors.
Model Response Suppression: When running a regional simulation in E-GAS the user
is given the option of suppressing model responses. Such suppressions dissolve links between
key elements of the model, thus changing the simulation.
National REMI Forecast: An economic activity forecast for the entire United States.
The user is given the choice of two forecasts: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Wharton
Econometrics Forecasting Associates (WEFA).
Policy Variables: E-GAS provides policy variables that can be used in scenario testing
for a region. Changing policy variables allows the user to simulate the economic impact of
anticipated government policy changes, market changes, or other exogenous changes to the
regional economy. The effect of a policy change is the difference between a baseline forecast
and the simulation forecast with policy variable changes.
Regional REMI Model: An economic model for a subset, or region, of the country.
Relative Costs/Prices: Some of the policy variables that can be defined in E-GAS are
described as relative costs or prices. In these cases, the default cost per unit represents the
average cost for the nation and is standardized to a value of one (1). Therefore, only the relative
change in cost needs to be entered, rather than the actual local cost. If default =1.0 and a
10 percent increase in the price of gasoline was entered, it would indicate a relative gasoline cost
of 1.1. A 10 percent decrease would indicate a 0.9 relative cost.
REMI Model: An economic model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
REMI models are incorporated into E-GAS to forecast economic activity.
Simulation Forecast: An economic activity forecast allowing policy variable changes.
Model responses can be suppressed in the simulation forecasts. If model responses are
suppressed in a simulation, a baseline forecast is also created using the model suppression.
Tiers: E-GAS is a series of three related tiers. The tiers must be executed consecutively,
but may be run any number of times before proceeding to the next. The tiers are as follows:
• Tier 1: National Economic Forecast
• Tier 2: Regional Economic Forecast
• Tier 3: Growth Factor Computations
1.5 PROGRAM INPUT AND USER GUIDE SYNTAX
E-GAS is a menu-driven system that guides the user through a series of screens which
collect information for adapting the model to the user's needs. User input is limited to selecting
menu items and setting parameters by entering data in text boxes.
It should be noted that, in both the E-GAS system and this guide, references to specific
computer keys are enclosed with < > symbols, such as: the Escape key is identified as , and the function keys use notation.
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I
Menu screens offer choices regarding progress through E-GAS. Vertical and horizontal
movement is brought about with the cursor control keys (Up, Down, Left, and Right arrows).
These screens only offer choices of data entry screens or other menu screens. Cursor keys are
used to highlight the desired choice. The key is then pressed to select the option.
Pressing the highlighted letter in the choice can also select the option.
Text boxes allow users to answer system questions necessary for model execution. Data
can be entered by basic typing, edited with the and cursor keys, and accepted with
the key.
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1.6 REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
US^ Department of Commerce. BEA Regional Projections to 2040, Volume 1- States
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Washington, DC. 1990.
U.S. Department of Commerce. BEA Regional Projections to 2040 Volume 2-
Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Washington, DC ' 1990.
U.S. Department of Commerce. BEA Regional Projections to 2040, Volume 3- BEA
Economic Areas. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Washington, DC. 1990
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CHAPTER 2
GETTING STARTED
2.1 INSTALLING E-GAS
E-GAS can be installed through the following steps:
1. Placing the E-GAS Program Diskette 1 in the appropriate disk drive.
2. Switching to the floppy disk drive containing the E-GAS diskette.
e.g.: A:
3. Running the Install Program.
e.g.: INSTALL
4. Following instructions printed to the screen to select installation disk and path.
The install routine will create the specified directory on the destination (fixed) disk drive.
If no directory is entered the install routine will create an \EGAS directory. Once installation
is complete, the E-GAS system will automatically be started and the title screen will appear.
2.2 RUNNING E-GAS
After E-GAS has been installed, the system can easily be run by:
1. Setting the default drive to the fixed disk containing E-GAS.
e.g.: C:
2. Setting the default directory to the one chosen when installing the system.
e.g.: CD \EGAS
3. Typing EGAS at the DOS prompt.
Upon successful start-up of the system, the title screen is presented, asking the user to press any
key to continue.
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23 MAIN MENU
After leaving the title screen, the user arrives at the E-GAS Main Menu.
........ '"'••'"• ..... ' ..... ' Euuiiumiu GruwUi Ana IMS is
E-GftS E-COS E-GflS E-GflS E-GflS E-GflS E-GflS
E ens E ens E ens E ens E ens EGOS EG
E-GflS E-GflS
E ens E ens
ns E ens E ens E ens
E fiflS E-BflS E RflS
pcjiona I Economic Forecaet £
rnwth FantnrCnnjpntatinils •, |
•rint User flssiimptinns '•'":, j
'Imnt E-HftS i
E-CAS E-GAS E
E-GflS E-CftS
!-naS E-GHS E-GftS
E-GRS E-GflS E-G
E-GAS E-GfiS E
iTsrciir^EnsE^cns E ens E ens
E nns F. nns E PJIS E nns E IMS
E-CflS E-GftS E-CflS E-GAS E-GAS E-GAS E-GAS E-CflS E-G
E-GftS E-GRS E-GflS E-CBS E-GaS E-GflS E-GftS E-GHS E
Figure 2-1. Main menu.
The user can advance to the major tiers of E-GAS through the Main Menu. Options can
be chosen by pressing the first letter of the option name or by highlighting the choice and
pressing the key. The Main Menu's options are as follows:
National Economic Forecast: This option allows the user to create a national-level economic
forecast and is Tier 1 of the three-part process of creating estimated growth factors; it generates
data to drive the Regional Economic Forecast (Tier 2). This tier may be rerun any number of
times before proceeding to Tier 2. Use of the national model is discussed in Chapter 6 of this
guide.
Regional Economic Forecast: This choice allows the user to develop a regional economic
forecast. This is Tier 2 of the three-part process of creating estimated growth factors which
generate data to drive the Growth Factor Computations (Tier 3). This tier may be rerun any
number of times before proceeding to Tier 3. Use of the regional model is discussed in Chapter
7 of this guide.
Growth Factor Computations: This is the third tier where growth factors are generated and
written to files in the current subdirectory. Tier 3 is discussed in Chapter 8.
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Print User Assumptions: This option prints the user assumptions.1
About E-GAS: This provides a summary of the E-GAS program and its components.
Exit: This option returns the user to the operating system after leaving E-GAS.
2.4 E-GAS UTILITIES
Several features are available to E-GAS users throughout the three tiers of the system.
These features are available to users whenever they are indicated on the information bars. The
screen below, from the Regional Model Tier, illustrates some of these options.
Begional Model
Figure 2-2. E-GAS utilities.
The E-GAS utilities include:
Help screens summarizing system operation
User Assumptions under which the model is currently being run
Abort Execution option
2.4.1 Help
Pressing while running E-GAS or from the menu will display help text or a
menu of topics associated with the part of E-GAS currently being used. When the system is at
the menu, the Help screen is a menu from which the user can highlight the preferred topic and
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select it for review by pressing . The Help provides information about the specific
topic and its reation to the current execution point of the system. Hdp sc^n' Se
instructions on closing the help function and returning to regular system
2.4.2 User Assumptions
which rSSi^ Wl?IC "T118 E"GAS retUmS information on the user assumptions under
which the model is operating. The assumptions-including the chosen national model chanees
m policy variables, and model response suppressions-are'summarized in
* presented for ^ current tier' if ii has previ°usiy
2.4.3 Abort Execution
^^ lwhile me system « performing calculations will end the data
E USef t0r! TenU ^ ^ 1S C°nVenient When to user rea1^ that
to- has been misspecified through choice of an inappropriate model, policy variable
Z fmreSP°nSe SUPP™/ Ab0rtinS execution °f E-GAS calculations does not unne
data from previous runs of the current tier or data from other tiers '"ermine
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CHAPTERS
ECONOMIC MODELS IN E-GAS
3.1 INTRODUCTION
E-GAS is designed such that growth factor projection scenarios for each nonattainment
area and attainment portion of States can be made using a common assumption about future U.S.
economic activity. The national economic forecasts in E-GAS can provide a common forecast
with which to forecast regional economic growth. The nature of ozone formation requires
attention to the location as well as the level of economic activity. National forecasts provide
estimates of total economic activity. The regional model will distribute this activity among U.S.
urban areas, States, and regions. The spatial characteristics of the regional forecasts are designed
to meet the needs of the photochemical models used by the ozone nonattainment areas.
A major component of the E-GAS system is the REMIEDFS-14 economic model. The
major advantage of the REMI system is its ability to distribute modeled national growth to
smaller modeling regions comprising the United States. The REMI model also contains a
national economic growth model, which creates national growth projections for distribution by
the regional model. The REMI national model can create forecasts from its own data or other
compatible national forecasts. E-GAS allows the user to specify national macroeconomic
forecasts to produce the outputs necessary to run the regional model.
In the REMI regional models, growth is affected by a number of factors, including the
performance of the national economy and the relative costs of doing business in the modeled
region. The relative costs of doing business are determined endogenously, although the user may
simulate policies which would affect the relative costs in a region. The growth or decline of the
national economy, however, is determined outside of the regional model.1 The choice of national
forecast is left solely to the user. This choice can have a large impact on the estimates of growth
in the region being modeled.
3.2 THE BLS / REMI VS. FORECAST
The REMI U.S. forecast is based on the BLS Trend-2000 forecast. The BLS forecast
provides "fundamental information" for use in the REMI national and regional models. The
methodology for projecting U.S. final demand by industry relies on the creation of technical
coefficient matrices for each historical and forecasted year. This methodology involves
developing an input-output model for the years for which BLS provides input-output accounts
(1982,1986, and 2000).2 The BLS forecasts include employment and output by industry, as well
as Gross National Product (GNP). The final demand components of the BLS forecast are used
to drive the input-output models, resulting in a prediction of intermediate demand for and output
by industries.
3.3 WHARTON ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING ASSOCIATES (WEFA)
The WEFA Group produces short- and long-term economic forecasts of U.S. economic
activity. The short-term forecasts range from 10 to 13 quarters (2.5 to 3.25 years) and are issued
monthly. The long-term forecasts are 25-year forecasts which are issued quarterly. In addition
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to the baseline short-term forecast, the WEFA Group provides two alternative forecasts focusing
on macroeconomic risks and their probable effects on industries. The 25-year forecasts include
trend, cycle, and two alternative forecasts.3
The WEFA Group uses Mark 9, a quarterly economic model developed at WEFA, to
produce its short- and long-term forecasts. The model is comprised of over 1200 equations and
contains a "satellite" industry model which produces detailed industrial forecasts using outputs
from the core macroeconomic model.4 The Mark 9 model contains the following nine major
sectors:
1. Personal Consumption Expenditures
2. Fixed Investment
3. Inventory Investment
4. Government
5, International Trade
6. Labor Market
7. Wages and Prices
8. Financial Market
9. Income
Variables included in the WEFA model include consumption, investment, income, and inflation
data from the National Income and Product Accounts; population, employment, and wage rate
data from the BLS; industrial production data from the Federal Reserve Board; and demand,
production, and price data for the auto, housing, and energy sectors of the economy.4
The long-term economic forecasts are issued in a two-volume report. The first volume
of the report covers the trend or moderate growth scenario and contains an overview of the
forecast results and detailed sector reviews of the population, housing, investment, government,
inflation, labor market, industrial activity, and energy forecasts in addition to tables detailing the
sector forecasts.4
The REMI models may be run using 92 forecasted variables from WEFA. These 92
variables include 25 final demand variables. WEFA also forecasts housing and energy variables
which may be used in E-GAS development and simulations. Mark 9 forecasts detailed energy
price, supply, demand, and consumption variables. The model also forecasts housing variables
including housing starts, sales, stocks, and prices.
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3.4 REFERENCES
1. Regional Economic Models, Inc. Operator's Manual for a Single Region EDFS-14
Conjoined Forecasting and Simulation Model. REMI Reference Set, Volume 2.
Amherst, MA. 1991.
2. Shao, G., and G. Treyz. Building a U.S. and Regional Forecasting and Simulation
Model. Research Paper. Regional Economic Models, Inc. Amherst, MA. 1991.
3. Randall, T., Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. Telecon with Teresa Lynch,
Alliance Technologies Corporation. April 1992.
4. Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates. Mark 9 Model Reference. The WEFA
Group. Bala Cynwyd, PA. January 1990.
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CHAPTER 4
POLICY VARIABLE CHANGES
4.1 INTRODUCTION
By changing policy variables, the user is allowed to simulate the economic impact of
anticipated government policy changes, market changes, or other exogenous changes to the
regional economy. The effect of a policy change is the difference between a baseline forecast
and the simulation forecast with policy variable changes.
In the E-GAS model, there are over 100 regular economic policy variables, translator
policy variables (which control combinations of economic policy variables), and population
variables that can be adjusted. These variables are accessed from the REMIEDFS-14 model and
offer scenarios for changes in tax rates (corporate profit tax, equipment tax, investment tax,
personal income tax, and property tax), costs (including relative production cost, import cost, and
export cost), wage rate, employment transfer payments, purchasing power, and final demand.
Policy variables have default values for baseline scenarios. Variables that describe
additive changes have defaults of 0 and multiplicative variables use 1 for the default. Therefore,
entered values for additive changes will represent the injection (of dollars, employees, etc.) into
the economy and values for multiplicative phenomena will represent the ratio of the new value
(cost, tax points, etc.) to the default.
The policy variables in E-GAS are grouped into three categories, regular economic policy
variables, translator variables, and population variables. Variable changes may have any number
of decimal places and may be positive or negative. These categories are broken into
subcategories containing the individual variables that can be changed by the user. Category,
subcategory, and variable descriptions follow. The numbers in parentheses are two-digit SICs
which apply to the policy variable.
4.2 REGULAR POLICY VARIABLES
Employment
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG -
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
EMPLOYMENT CHNG
DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
NONDUR.<20-23,26-31)
MINING(10,12-14)
CONSTRUCnON(15-17)
TRANSP+PUB UT(4
-------
sector. The value entered should be in thousands (1000s) of employees.
Non-government Final Demand
FINAL DEM - PCE AUTOS & PARTS
FINAL DEM - PCE FURN & HH EQUP
FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER DURABLES
FINAL DEM - PCE FOOD & BEVERAGES
FINAL DEM - PCE CLOTHING AND SHOES
FINAL DEM - PCE GASOLINE & OIL
FINAL DEM - PCE FUEL OIL & COAL
FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER NONDURABLES
FINAL DEM - PCE HOUSING
FINAL DEM - PCE HSEHLD OPERATION
FINAL DEM - PCE TRANSPORT + PUB UT
FINAL DEM - PCE HEALTH SERVICES
FINAL DEM - PCE OTHER SERVICES
FINAL DEM - INV RESIDENTIAL
FINAL DEM - INV NON RESIDENTIAL
FINAL DEM - INV PROD DUR EQUIP
Autos and Parts
Furniture and Household Equipment
Other Durables
Food and Beverages
Clothing and Shoes
Gasoline and Oil
Fuel Oil and Coal
Other Nondurables
Housing
Household Operation
Transportation and Public Utilities
Health Services
Other Services
Residential Investment
Nonresidential Investment
Durable Equipment Investment
Non-government final demand represents consumer spending and investment in the region.
The combination of this section and government spending represents final demand for the region.
Intermediate demand for products to subsequently be used in industry is not included. This
section can be used to anticipate economic impacts of changes in consumer behavior. For
example, the economic effects of introducing appealing, popular electric automobiles could be
explored by deflating the consumer spending for gasoline and oil increasing the Transportation
and Public Utilities (in areas where electricity is publicly provided). Consumer demand/spending
should be entered as millions of dollars.
Government Final Demand
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC-EDUC
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC HLTH/WLFAR
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC SAFETY
FINAL DEM - GOV ST/LOC OTHER
State and Local Government Education
State and Local Government Health and Welfare
State and Local Government Public Safety
State and Local Government Other
Government Final Demand represents the public sector's purchase of finished products.
For example, purchase of new fire-fighting equipment would represent government spending for
safety, but any increases in staff expenses would represent an increase in employment.
Government demand/spending should be entered as millions of dollars.
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Relative Cost Change
REL COST CHANGE - DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
REL COST CHANGE - NONDUR.(20-23,26-31)
REL COST CHANGE - MINING(10,12-14)
REL COST CHANGE - CONSTRUCTION 15-17)
REL COST CHANGE - TRANSP+FUB UT(40-49)
REL COST CHANGE - FIN, INS.+ RE(60-67)
REL COST CHANGE - RETAIL TRADE(52-59)
REL COST CHANGE - WHOLESALE TR(50,51)
REL COST CHANGE - SERVICE(70-79,80-89)
REL COST CHANGE - AGRI/F/F SERV(07-09)
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Mining
Construction
Transportation and Public Utilities
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Services
Agriculture, Farm, and Fishing Services
Relative cost change represents changes in production costs due to a policy change. The
relative change in costs can be entered as millions of dollars per year or as percent change, where
entering -1.0 would decrease the value by one percent and entering 1.0 would increase it by one
percent. The choice of dollars or percent must be used for all changes within a single simulation.
Cost changes from additional health regulations placed on agriculture, therefore, would involve
entry of a positive value for the AGRI/F/F variable.
Industry Demand
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
DEMAND
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE-
CHANGE
DURABLE(24,25,32-39)
NONDUR.(20-23,26-31)
MllNriNG(10,12-14)
CONSTRUCT1ON(15-17)
TRANSP+PUB UT(4
-------
Tax Rates
CORPORATE PROFIT TAX RATE
EQUIPMENT TAX RATE
INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT
Corporate Profit Tax Rate
Equipment Tax Rate
Investment Tax Credit
Changes in business tax rates attributable to policy changes are entered as the change in
percentage points charged.
PERSONAL TAXES
Personal Taxes
Changes in personal taxes attributable to policy changes are entered as the change in
millions of dollars collected.
Purchasing Power
CHANGE IN PURCHASING POWER
Change in Purchasing Power
Purchasing power represents the amount of disposable income available to consumers.
The value entered represents the decrease in purchasing power experienced by consumers.
Therefore, the decrease in a community's disposable income associated with automobile tire
disposal fees would be entered as a positive number. Changes in the purchasing power of
consumers are entered as millions of dollars.
4.3 TRANSLATOR POLICY VARIABLES
Translator policy variables can be used to automatically change the series of regular
economic policy variables associated with the output of a variety of industrial/service/government
sectors. These changes may be entered as millions of nominal or real dollars. The choice of
nominal or real dollars must be applied to all changes within a single simulation.
New Utilities and Facilities
NEW COMMUNICATIONS FAdLmES
NEW ELECTRIC UTILITY FAOUTIES
NEW WATER SUPPLY AND SEWER FACILITIES
NEW GAS UTILITY AND PIPELINE FAdLTnES
NEW ROADS
NEW LOCAL TRANSIT FACILITIES
NEW CONSERVATION AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES
Changes in production from new utilities and facilities can be simulated by entering the
changes in spending in millions of dollars.
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Transit
LOCAL GOVERNMENT PASSENGER TRANSIT
STATE AND LOCAL ELECTRIC UTILITIES
STATE AND LOCAL GOVT ENTERPRISES, NEC
Changes in production from transit and other public enterprises can be simulated by
entering the changes in spending in millions of dollars.
Purchase of Electricity and Natural Gas
ELECTRICITY; PCE
NATURAL GAS; PCE
Changes in the final demand for electricity and natural gas should be entered as millions
of dollars.
Local Transportation Expenditures
BUS AND TROLLEY CAR TRANSPORTATION; PCE
TAXICABS; PCE
COMMUTER RAIL TRANSPORTATION-, PCE
RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION; PCE
INTERCITY BUS; PCE
Changes in final demand for the various modes of local transportation should be entered
in millions of dollars.
State and Local Government Expenditures
ELEMENTARY AND SECON.. EDUCATION; STATE & LOCAL GOVT (SL GOVT)
HIGHER EDUCATION; SL GOVT
OTHER EDUCATION AND LIBRARIES; SL GOVT
HEALTH AND HOSPITALS; SL GOVT
PUBLIC ASSISTANCE AND RELIEF; SL GOVT
SEWERAGE; SL GOVT
SANITATION; SL GOVT
POLICE; SL GOVT
FIRE; SL GOVT
CORRECTIONS; SL GOVT
HIGHWAYS; SL GOVT
WATER AND AIR FACILITIES; SL GOVT
TRANSIT UnLTTIES; SL GOVT
OTHER COMMERCE AND TRANSPORTATION; SL GOVT
GAS AND ELECTRIC UTIUnES; SL GOVT
WATER; SL GOVT
URBAN RENEWAL AND COMMUNITY FACILITIES; SL GOVT
NATURAL AND AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES AND RECREATION; SL GOVT
4-5
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Changes in final demand for the services of local government should be entered in
millions of dollars.
4.4 POPULATION VARIABLE
POPULATION AMENITY TERM
The population amenity term represents changes in the quality of life and appeal of a
region. This term is an indicator for the morbidity, crime, visibility or other characteristics of
a region. This is defined as a real wage gain to individuals moving into and out of the area
(migrants) and can be interpreted as the portion of a migrant's salary that is equivalent to the
quality of living in the area.
The values for the population amenity term are entered as the equivalent proportion of
migrant earnings gained in quality of life. For example, if it is estimated that migrants value the
effects of certain pollution control measures at one half of one percent of their income then the
entered value should be 0.5. If the negative environmental and convenience effects of reducing
public transit is equivalent to losing one percent of the migrants' income, then the entered value
should be -1.0.
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CHAPTERS
MODEL SUPPRESSIONS
When running a regional simulation in E-GAS, the user is given the option of suppressing
model responses. Such suppressions dissolve links between key elements of the model. Model
suppressions are designed to provide flexibility in modeling policy changes, therefore model
suppressions cannot be imposed during baseline forecasts and should only be imposed in
conjunction with a policy variable change in a simulation forecast. The decision to suppress
model responses should be carefully considered, since changes in the structure of the model can
reverberate throughout the forecasting process and undermine the credibility of the results. The
available model suppressions are described below.
Wage Response Suppression: If this response is suppressed, the wage rates in the baseline
forecast and the simulation will not be connected to changes in occupational demand or changes
in relative economic opportunity (REO).
Labor Intensity Response Suppression: If this is suppressed, labor intensity in the baseline
forecast and in the simulation is not influenced by local determinants of the labor force, but
instead maintains the value appearing for the most recent year recorded by the model.
Net Migration Response Suppression: If this is suppressed, net migration will not respond to
changes in REO, relative wage rate (RWR), and relative wage mix (RWM) and will be kept at
zero in the baseline forecast and the simulation.
Regional Price Coefficients* (RFC) Response to Gross Regional Product (GRP) and SeUing
Price Suppression: When this is suppressed, the regional purchase coefficients are fixed for the
baseline forecast and simulated at the value appearing for the most recent year recorded by the
model.
Regional Price Coefficients' (RFC) Response to Gross Regional Product (GRP) Only
Suppression: This suppression changes exogenous RFC response to GRP to endogenous
response (as output expands, RPC's will increase, and vice versa), but retains endogenous
response to selling price with either setting.
Export Response Suppression: If this is suppressed, exports will not respond to changes in
relative costs or changes in profitability.
Consumer Price Index CPI-WAGE Response Suppression: When this is suppressed, increases
in the consumer price index (CPI) are not transmitted to wages.
House-Land Price Response Suppression: If this response is suppressed, house price and land
price will not fluctuate with the market, but will be fixed in the forecast years with the value
appearing for the most recent year recorded by the model.
5-1
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Property Income Response to Population Suppression: If this response is suppressed, property
income will not respond to a change in the population density (population of the region relative
to the United States).
Transfer Payment Response to Dependent Population Suppression: Similar to property
income, transfer payments will not respond to a change in the dependent population of the region
relative to the United States.
Local Consumption Suppression: If it is suppressed, local consumption will not respond to a
change in the real disposable income of the region relative to the United States in the forecast
years.
Investment Suppression: If this response is suppressed, investment will not respond to changes
in the local optimal capital stock.
Changing the Default Status of Stock Adjustment Investment Process: This option changes
default Stock Adjustment Investment Process' status (either replaces old investment equations
with stock adjustment investment equations, or vice versa). Use of the stock adjustment
investment equations leads to more immediate investment impacts during simulations. The
short-term properties will also differ.
Government Demand Response to Population Suppression: If this response is suppressed,
government demand will not respond to a change in the population of the region relative to the
United States.
Changing the Default Status of Employees Per Dollar Value Added (EPV): Endogenous EPV
will endogenize productivity so that when output increases, productivity will increase accordingly
in the short run. This results in less new employment in the initial years of a simulation.
5-2
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CHAPTER 6
TIER 1: THE NATIONAL MODEL
6.1 INTRODUCTION
The national tier of E-GAS provides forecasts of national economic activity to drive the
regional economic models and, subsequently, the growth factor tier. The user may choose one
of the two forecasts (BLS or WEFA) to create the national forecast. The growth forecasted by
this model is then distributed among and within regions in Tier 2. The national tier may be
changed and rerun any number of times before proceeding to Tier 2. Unless the user chooses
to change the national forecast, the national model data need to be run only once before
advancing to or subsequently rerunning the Regional Tier; output from the National Tier is
maintained through multiple runs of subsequent tiers. Model responses may be suppressed in the
national model. Any national model suppressions should also be chosen for the regional model
and caution should be exercised before choosing any suppressions (see Chapter 5).
6.2 NATIONAL MODEL MAIN SCREEN
Upon entering the subsystem, the user is presented with this screen:
HELP*
Bab't; I i ne Fureuas I
Main Htfiiu
Figure 6-1. National model main screen.
6-1
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At the top of the screen are options that can be selected by pressing the first letter of the
option or highlighting the choice and pressing the key. These options are discussed
in Sections 6.3 and 6.4. The E-GAS Utilities found in the information bar at the bottom of the
screen are described in Section 2.4.
6.3 BASELINE FORECAST
Choosing the Baseline Forecast option from the National Model Main Screen leads to
the display of this screen:
Main MKIIU
iwarii
Figure 6-2. National model baseline forecast screen.
The menu items are the two national forecasts which can be baseline forecasts. These
forecasts include:
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics
WEFA: Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates
Further information on these forecasts can be found in this tier's help screens and Chapter 3 of
this guide.
6.4 MAIN MENU
Choosing the Main Menu option from the National Model Main Screen returns the user
to the E-GAS Main Menu.
6-2
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CHAPTER?
TIER 2: THE REGIONAL MODEL
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The regional tier of E-GAS will provide economic forecasts for the UAM and ROM
modeling regions. E-GAS will include separate economic forecasts for extreme, severe, serious,
and moderate multi-state ozone nonattainment areas, as well as models for the attainment portions
of these States. In addition, an economic model for each State in a ROM modeling region will
be included in E-GAS.
The regional tier, Tier 2, takes input from the National Model and cannot be run unless
that model has been run at least once. Tier 2 can be adjusted and rerun any number of times
without rerunning the national tier, unless the user wishes to change the national forecast. The
regional tier must be run before proceeding to the Growth Factor Computations tier.
Model responses can be suppressed in a regional simulation. A baseline forecast is run
automatically using the model suppressions before the requested simulation is run.
A Baseline forecast must be generated within Tier 2. Baseline forecasts use the
REMI/E-GAS default settings to distribute growth within the region. Simulation forecasts may
be run if the user wishes to change policy variables for any area within their region (policy
variables are described in Chapter 5). Tier 2 may be run several times before proceeding to the
growth factor computations (Tier 3): the latest regional model run will drive the growth factor
computations. The user may abandon the simulation forecast by running another baseline
forecast and advancing to the Growth Factor Computations. If the national forecast needs to be
changed, the user should return to Tier 1.
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7.2 REGIONAL MODEL TIER MAIN SCREEN
This is the regional model's main screen:
i •
<1.>lSi:S!-iJ-t1Nrf, *• ' i-ivh .« "*rf7-' - X«*V*' - -;•,, ov"-.-, , ,•.••• J -,,,, • vS™^.'?^...^^''.)!..*' .•„,;,, ™«*u:^.,,[v^ ,,«•»;!*
Figure 7-1. Regional model main screen.
At the top of the screen are four options that can be selected by pressing the first letter
of the option or highlighting the choice and pressing the key. With the exception of
the HELP option, these options are discussed in Sections 7.3 through 7.5. The E-GAS Utilities
found in the information bar at the bottom of the screen are described in Section 2.4.
73 BASELINE FORECAST
Choosing the Baseline Forecast option from the Regional Model Main Screen causes
E-GAS to take the parameters from the selected national economic forecast and apply them to
the regional modeling program. Upon completion of the regional baseline, the user is returned
to the Regional Model Tier Main Screen.
7.4 SIMULATION FORECAST
Regional simulation forecasting cannot be executed until a regional baseline scenario has
been run. Choosing the Simulation Forecast option from the Regional Model Main Screen, after
having run the baseline, leads to a sequence of screens soliciting input.
7-2
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• The user must provide additional information to execute simulation forecasts in Regional
Simulation Forecasting. The system requires the user to enter the ending year, as well as any
model suppressions (see Chapter 5 for an explanation of model suppressions). The user may then
change one or more policy variables for any of the areas within the user's region (Chapter 4
describes the E-GAS policy variables). Multiple policy variable changes should be made with
caution since excessive changes would distort any causality between results and policy variable
changes
After supplying all of the required additional information, the system processes the data
and returns the user to the Regional Model Main Screen.
7.5 MAIN MENU
Choosing the Main Menu option from the Regional Model Main Screen returns the user
to the E-GAS Main Menu.
7-3
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CHAPTERS
TIER 3: THE GROWTH FACTOR MODULE
8.1 INTRODUCTION
The growth factor tier in E-GAS translates changes in the economic activity levels of the
most recent regional forecast to growth factors for physical output, fuel consumption, and VMT.
These growth factors will be developed for two-, three-, and four-digit SIC levels depending on
available data for developing and disaggregating the factors. These SIC-level growth factors will
be matched with SCC codes. The final output from this tier will be ASCII files containing SCC
growth factors to be used for AIRS inventories.
The growth factor tier cannot be run unless tiers 1 and 2 have been run, generating the
economic data necessary for energy consumption calculation. Tier 3 uses the following six
modules to calculate the activity growth factors from the diverse economic data produced by the
first two tiers:
• Household Model of Energy by State (HOMES)
• Commercial.Sector Energy Model by State (CSEMS)
• Industrial Regional Activity and Energy Demand (INRAD) Model
• Neural Network Electric Utility Model (NUMOD)
• Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Module
• Physical Output Module
E-GAS's crosswalk module translates the energy consumption factors to point, area, and
mobile SCC growth factors. The output ASCII files are named:
RES_FUEL.SCC HOMES / residential fossil fuel
COM_FUEL.SCC CSEMS / commercial fossil fuel
IND_FUEL.SCC INRAD / industrial fossil fuel
ELECTRIC.SCC NUMOD / electric growth factors
VMT.SCC VMT / transportation
PHY.SCC PHYSICAL OUTPUT / industrial output
OTHER.SCC Growth for unclassified SCC's
The user can exit E-GAS to read and print the E-GAS output (SCC) files with an ASCII file
reader/editor.
8-1
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8.2 OUTPUT FILE SELECTION SCREENS
The user has the opportunity to choose the layout of the E-GAS output files. The first
data entry screens of the Growth Factor Tier allow the user to choose the years and counties to
be included in the output files.
8.2.1 Output File Format Selection Screen
This screen follows the User Assumption screen series:
niit.piit Fi IR Fnrmats
EF5 Format
2-dii]it SIC Furmal
Tl, «—' ur Esu —-
Figure 8-1. Output file format selection screen.
The user should use the up and down cursor keys to highlight desired format and press
the key. Three output formats are available:
• Standard E-GAS Format: The output data is aggregated by Source Classification Code
and is prefaced with a header describing the modelling regions represented; selected
policy variable changes and model suppressions; and the date and time that the file was
generated.
• EPS Format: The input format for the Emission Preprocessor System for the Urban
Airshed Model. This format does not include the data header found in the Standard
E-GAS Format.
8-2
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• 2-digit SIC Format: Output data is aggregated by Standard Industrial Classification
instead of Source Classification Code. This format includes a header describing the
modelling regions represented; selected policy variable changes and model suppressions;
and the date and time that the file was generated.
All three output formats are standard text files that can be read with text editors or imported into
analytical software. After the user has chosen a format, E-GAS proceeds to the Output File Year
Selection Screen. The E-GAS Utilities found in the information bar at the bottom of the screen
are described in Section 2.4.
8.2.2 Output File Year Selection Screen
This screen appears after the file format has been chosen:
YKdi'H Hvailabib:
1001
1002
1993
1994
1995
IRRfi
1937
Tl, «—' nr Tisn
Figure 8-2. Output file year selection screen.
The user should use up and down cursor keys to highlight desired years—or the All Years
option—and mark the highlighted selection by pressing the space bar. The user should press the
key when all of the desired choices have been marked. E-GAS then proceeds to the
Output File Area selection screen. If All Years is one of the marked choices, the system will
ignore any individual year selections and print data for all of the available years.
The size of the output files will be significantly smaller if only the desired areas, counties,
and years are selected.
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8.23 Output File Area/State/County Selection Screens
After the years to be included in output have been selected, the desired areas of the REMI
region can be chosen.
r ~—" Available Areas ———
Boston firea
Greater Connecticut ftrea
Portsmouth ftrea
Prouidence flrea
Springfield flrea
Rp.st nf Nfidi Hampshirfi flrRa
Tl srrnll, «— ' sfilents,
Figure 8-3. Output file area selection screen.
The up and down cursor keys may be used to highlight desired areas—or the All Model
Areas option—and mark the highlighted selection by pressing the space bar. The user should
press the key when all of the desired choices have been marked.
After the user chooses the area of interest, states and counties within the chosen area can
be selected through similar screens. If there is only one county hi the chosen state/area
combination, it is automatically selected and the county selection screen is not displayed. The
system proceeds to the VMT Data Source Screen after the areas, states, and counties have been
chosen.
8-4
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8.3 VMT DATA ENTRY SEQUENCE
The user has several options for entering VMT data. The user can enter data from the
keyboard or through user-prepared files. The E-GAS VMT module can be chosen, avoiding any
need for user data, or the VMT section can be omitted from E-GAS if no VMT output is needed.
83.1 VMT Data Source Screen
The following is the first screen in the VMT data entry sequence:
Do you want to use the E-CflS UMT forecast?
(Select one option and press return)
II HSR K-CH5 UWT rmrliilfi
7.1 Entfir nsp.r IffT gr ninth fant.nrR f rnm thR kRuhnarrt
3) Enter user WT growth factors from a file
4) Skip WT seuliun
EnLwr
Esc exits
Figure 8-4. VMT data screen.
If the user selects the E-GAS VMT module or elects to skip the VMT module, the system
proceeds to calculate the output files and returns to the Main Menu. If the Enter user VMT
growth factors from the keyboard or Enter user VMT growth factors from a file is chosen, the
system advances to the VMT Data Detail Screen. Pressing
-------
8.3.2 VMT Data Detail Screen
When the Enter user VMT growth factors from the keyboard or Enter user VMT growth
factors from a file options are chosen from the VMT Data Screen, this screen is produced:
Be I knap Comity :
Select one option
1 1 Hiifi grnurt.il f antnr f nr a 1 1 UMT SCC.S
2) Hrnuitli fantnrs hy mart type
3) Growth factors ton road tupe and vehicle
4) Nu iiruwlli faulorb fur Lliib uuuiiln
Enlttr
— Esc exits —
Figure 8-5. VMT data detail screen.
This screen is used to choose the VMT data inputs which are appropriate for the level of
detail found in the user's data. The higher levels of detail are accommodated by the choices
found lower on the list. When Enter user VMT growth factors from a file has been chosen from
the VMT Data Screen, the user is prompted for the file name; if Enter user VMT growth factors
from the keyboard is chosen, the system moves to the appropriate VMT data entry screen.
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833 VMT Data Entry Screens
After defining the VMT data table, a screen for entering data into the table is provided.
The user can accept the entered data by pressing or exit by pressing
-------
FACTOR
ROffl) TYPE
Interstate : Rura I
nthfir Principal flrtfirial: Rural
Minnr firtRrial: Rural
Major Cnl Ifirtnr : Kural Tnt.al
Minor Collector: Rural Total
Luca I : Kurd I
IiiLyrsLaLK : Urban
Qlbur Fi'Hwukiijb: & E.xjJi-wtitJWrty« : UrLau
Other Principal flrterial: Urban
Minor Orterial: Urban
Cnl Ifintnr: Urban
Loca I : Urban
Select Road IMPS Saue EH it Uithout Sauinej =
Figure 8-7. Growth factor by road type screen.
Select each road type by using the in the USE column. An X will appear
in the USE column and the cursor will automatically tab over to the factor column. Pressing
<£nter> will send the cursor to the next road type selection in the USE column.
8-8
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=. Growth Factors by Uahicle and Road Types for VearJL991 =
LDCU 1. Interstate: Rural C 3 '$£££$"".,
LDHU ?.. Other Principal ftrt.Hrial; Rural FT ^Milll')v*?
I.tlHU 3. Minor flrtfirial: Rural FT ^p^^ a
OHU 4. Major CnllRntnr: Rural Total FT ^ a D n«-™;-i
LDGU 5. Minor Collector: Ktiral Total C ] "
LDGU 6, Luual: Rural C ]
LDGU 7. Iiilei-bUle: UrLaii C ]
LDGU 8. OUiyr Frwwwciyti & ExprHSswciyii = Urbaii C 1
LDGU 0. Other Principal firteriali Urban L ]
LDGU 1Q. Minor Hrterial; Urban F 3
T.DRU 11. Cnllfir.tnr: llrh.in F 3
LDCU 12. Local: Urban F. 3
= Select Tl Scroll Saue Exit Without Sauing
Figure 8-8. Growth factor by road and vehicle type screen.
Select each vehicle/road type by using the . An X will appear in the USE
column and the cursor will automatically tab over to the factor column. Pressing will
send the cursor to the next vehicle/road type selection. The left column identifies vehicle types.
The types found in E-GAS include:
LDGV - Light Duty Gasoline Vehicle
LDGT1 - Light Duty Gasoline Truck 1
LDGT2 - Light Duty Gasoline Truck 1
LDGT - Light Duty Gasoline Truck Total
HDGV - Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicle
LDDV - Light Duty Diesel Vehicle
LDDT - Light Duty Diesel Truck
HDDV - Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle
8-9
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CHAPTER 9
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
In the event that the on-line help function and this user's guide are unable to answer
questions about E-GAS, please call Sue Kimbrough of the Environmental Protection Agency at
(919) 541-2612 or write to
Sue Kimbrough
AEERI7MD-62
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Please have the following information available:
• Hardware issues
hardware configuration
type of computer
amount of available memory
display type
peripherals
• Any memory-resident software used—including network drivers
• The version of DOS being used
• Specific description of the problem
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APPENDIX A
E-GAS MODELING AREAS
A-l
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MODELING AREA 1: EPA REGION 1
Boston-Lawrence-Worcester Nonattainment Area: Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex,
Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, and Worcester Counties, MA; Hillsborough
County, NH (Rockingham County included in Portsmouth, NH area model).
Greater CT Nonattainment Area: Hartford, Middlesex, New Haven, New London, Tolland,
and Windham Counties, CT (Litchfield and Fairfield Counties included in Region 2/3
NYC area model).
Portsmouth-Dover-Rochester Nonattainment Area: Rockingham and Strafford Counties, NH
Providence Nonattainment Area: All of Rhode Island
Springfield (Western MA) Nonattainment Area: Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden, and
Hampshire Counties, MA
Attainment Portion of New Hampshire
State of Maine
State of Vermont
MODELING AREA 2: EPA REGIONS 2 AND 3
New York-New Jersey-Long Island Nonattainment Area: Fairfield and Litchfield Counties,
CT; Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterton, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean,
Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, and Union Counties, NJ; Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York,
Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, and Westchester Counties, NY
Baltimore Nonattainment Area: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore, Carroll, Hartford,
and Howard Counties, MD
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Nonattainment Area: Kent and New Castle Counties, DE;
Cecil County MD; Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester Mercer, and Salem
Counties, NJ; Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia Counties, PA
Washington, D.C. Nonattainment Area: District of Columbia; Calvert, Charles, Fredrick,
Montgomery, and Prince George's Counties, MD; Alexandria City, Arlington, Fairfax,
Fairfax City, Fall Church City, Loudoun, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Prince
William's, and Stafford Counties, VA
Huntington-Ashland (WV-KY) Nonattainment Area: Boyd and Greenup Counties, KY and
Cabell and Wayne Counties, WV
Attainment Portion of New York
Attainment Portion of New Jersey
Attainment Portion of Pennsylvania
Attainment Portion of Delaware
Attainment Portion of Virginia
Attainment Portion of West Virginia
Attainment Portion of Maryland
A-2
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MODELING AREA 3: EPA REGION 4 .
Atlanta Nonattainment Area: Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Cowete, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette,
Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry, Paulding, and Rockdale Counties, GA
Louisville (KY-IN) Nonattainment Area: Clark and Floyd Counties, IN and Bullit, Jefferson,
and Oldham Counties, KY
Attainment Portion of Kentucky
Attainment Portion of Georgia
State of Tennessee
State of North Carolina
State of Mississippi
State of Alabama
State of South Carolina
State of Florida
MODELING AREA 4: EPA REGION 5
Chicago-Gary-Lake County Nonattainment Area: Cook, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall,
Lake, McHenry, and Will Counties, IL and Lake and Porter Counties; IN.
Milwaukee-Racine Nonattainment Area: Kenosha, Milwaukeee, Ozaukee, Racine,
Washington, and Waukesha Counties, WI
Muskegon Nonattainment Area: Muskegon County, WI
Sheboygan Nonattainment Area: Sheboygan County, WI
Cincinnati- Hamilton (OH-KY) Nonattainment Area: Boone, Campbell, and Kenton Counties,
KY and Butler, Clennont, Hamilton, and Warren Counties, OH
St. Louis Nonattainment Area: Madison, Monroe, and St. Clair Counties, IL and Franklin,
Jefferson, St. Charles, St. Louis City, and St. Louis Counties, MO
Attainment Portion of Illinois
Attainment Portion of Indiana
Attainment Portion of Wisconsin
Attainment Portion of Ohio
Attainment Portion of Michigan
State of Minnesota
A-3
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MODELING AREA 5: EPA REGION 6
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Area: Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston
Hams, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller Counties, TX '
Baton Rouge Nonattainment Area: Ascension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston Point
Coupee, and West Baton Rouge Parishes, LA
Beaumont-Port Arthur Nonattainment Area: Hardin, Jefferson, and Orange Counties TX
El Paso Nonattainment Area: El Paso County, TX
Attainment Portion of Texas
Attainment Portion of Louisiana
State of New Mexico
State of Oklahoma
State of Arkansas
MODELING AREA 6: EPA REGION 7
Attainment Portion of Missouri
State of Kansas
State of Nebraska
State of Iowa
MODELING AREA 7: EPA REGIONS 8 AND 10
State of Colorado
State of Utah
State of Wyoming
State of North Dakota
State of South Dakota
State of Montana
State of Idaho
State of Oregon
State of Washington
A-4
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MODELING AREA 8: EPA REGION 9
Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin Nonattainment Area: Los Angeles, Monterey, Orange,
Riverside, San Benito, San Bemadino, Santa Cruz Counties, CA
San Diego Nonattainment Area: San Diego County, CA
Ventura County Nonattainment Area: Ventura County, CA
Sacramento Metro Nonattainment Area: El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, and
Yolo Counties, CA
San Joaquin Valley Nonattainment Area: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin,
Stanislaus, and Tulare Counties, CA
Attainment Portion of California
State of Nevada
State of Arizona
A-5
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I
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APPENDIX B
FILE FORMATS FOR E-GAS VEHICLE
MILES TRAVELED (VMT) INPUT
B-l
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E-GAS VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED (VMT) INPUT FILE FORMAT
Filename: chosen by user
1. For one growth factor for all VMT SCCs.
FORMAT:
STATE COUNTY YEAR FACTOR
2. For one growth factor for each road type.
FORMAT:
STATE COUNTY YEAR ROAD TYPE FACTOR
ROAD TYPE CODES:
11 - Interstate - Rural
13 - Other principal arterial - Rural
15 - Minor Arterial - Rural
17 - Major Collector - Rural Total
19 - Minor Collector - Rural Total
21 - Local Rural
23 - Interstate - Urban
25 - Other freeways and expressways - Urban
27 - Other principal arterial - Urban
29 - Minor arterial - Urban
31 - Collector - Urban
33 - Local - Urban
3. For one growth factor for each road and vehicle type combination.
FORMAT:
STATE
COUNTY YEAR ROAD TYPE VEHICLE TYPE FACTOR
ROAD TYPE CODES:
11 - Interstate - Rural
13 - Other principal arterial - Rural
15 - Minor Arterial - Rural
17 - Major Collector - Rural Total
19 - Minor Collector - Rural Total
21 - Local Rural
23 - Interstate - Urban .
25 - Other freeways and expressways - Urban
27 - Other principal arterial - Urban
29 - Minor arterial - Urban
31 - Collector - Urban
33 - Local - Urban
B-2
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VEHICLE TYPE CODES:
1001 - Light duty gasoline vehicle
1020 - Light duty gasoline truck 1
1040 - Light duty gasoline truck 2
1060 - Light duty gasoline truck total
1070 - Heavy duty gasoline vehicle
0001 - Light duty diesel vehicle
0060 - Light duty diesel truck
0070 - Heavy duty diesel vehicle
where:
STATE
COUNTY
YEAR s
ROAD TYPE :
VEHICLE TYPE
FACTOR
2-digit Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code
3-digit FIPS code
4-digit year
2-digit road type code
4-digit vehicle type code
Growth Factor (e.g., .1, 1.1, 1.12, 1.123, etc.)
NOTE: When creating this file, at least one space must exist between each
field. Since the system is capable of handling floating decimal points, the
growth factor character length and position of the decimal is flexible. In
addition, do not use the following fUe names when creating the VMTfUe:
VMTJ)UT.DAT or VMT_OUT.SCC. These file names are created by the
system when processing either the EGAS default VMT data or when
processing user supplied VMT data. Using these file names could cause a
loss of data or could cause the system to crash.
B-3
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APPENDIX C
E-GAS OUTPUT FILES
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STANDARD E-GAS OUTPUT
Commercial Fuel Combustion File
Electric Utility Fuel Combustion File
Industrial Fuel Combustion File
Miscellaneous Point and Area Source Processes File
Point Source and Area Source Processes (Manufacturing) File
Residential Fuel Combustion File
Mobil Source (VMT) File
FILENAME.EXTENSION
COMM_FUEL.SCC
ELECTRIC.SCC
IND_FUEL.SCC
OTHER.SCC
PHY.SCC
RESJ7UEL.SCC
VMT_OUT.SCC
EPS OUTPUT
Point Source File
Area/Mobile Source File
FILENAME.EXTENSION
PROJECT.PTS
PROJECT.AMS
2.DIGIT SIC OUTPUT
Commercial Fuel Combustion File
Electric Utility Fuel Combustion File
Industrial Fuel Combustion File
Point Source and Area Source Processes (Manufacturing) File
FILENAME.EXTENSION
COM.FUEL.SIC
ELECTRIC.SIC
IND_FUEL.SIC
PHY.SIC
C-2
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-600/R-94-139b
2.
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Economic Growth Analysis System: User's Guide,
Version 2.0
5. REPORT DATE
August 1994
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Randy Randolph
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
CH-93-121
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
TRC Environmental Corporation
6320 Quadrangle Drive, Suite 100
Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-D2-0181
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
EPA, Office of Research and Development
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Task Final; 10/93 - 5/94
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/13
is. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES AEERL project officer is E. Sue Kimbrough, Mail Drop 62, 919 /
541-2612. The report consists of a Reference Manual and a User's Guide, that cancel
and supersede EFA-600/R-93-Q67a and -Q67b and related disks.
IB. ABSTRACT
two-volume report describes the development of, and provides infor-
mation needed to operate, the Economic Growth Analysis System (E-GAS) Version
2.0 model. The model will be used to project emissions inventories of volatile orga-
nic compounds (VOCs), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO) for
ozone nonattainment areas and Regional Oxidation Model (ROM) modeling regions.
The report details the design and development of E-GAS and includes detailed des-
criptions of the workings of the E-GAS computer modeling software components and
external software. The system is an economic and activity forecast model that trans-
lates the user's assumptions regarding regional economic policies and resource pri-
ces into Source Classification Code (SCC) level growth factors. The report provides
E-GAS users with sufficient background information to define and calibrate the E-GAE
model, as well as the procedures and syntax necessary to operate the system. The
organization of the user's manual is determined by the process used in operating the
system, providing images of sample screens as well as text.
7.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Pollution
Economics
Growth
Analyzing
Inventories
Nitrogen Oxides
Carbon Monoxide
Ozone
Pollution Control
Stationary Sources
Volatile Organic Com-
pounds (VOCs)
Mathematical Models Volatility
Emission Organic Compounds
13B 15E
05C 07B
06P.06C
14B
12A 20M
14G 07 C
8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release to Public
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport}
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
54
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
C-3
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U,S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Research and Development
Center for Environmental Research Information
Cincinnati. Ohio 45266
OFFICIAL BUS I NESS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE. S3OO
AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER
If Your address is incorrect, pfease change on the above label
tear off; and return to the above address.
If you do not desire to continue receiving these technical
reports, CHECK HERE D. tear off label, and return it to the
above address.
Publication No. EPA- 600/11-94-139
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