United States
                            Environmental Protection
                            Agency
                                Office of Policy,
                                Economics and Innovation
                                (1807T)
  September 2009
EPA-100-F-09-055
                            Evaluation  of  Three  Environmental
                            Results  Programs  (ERPs)
                                                                                      September 2009
 Fact Sheet
                      Introduction
http://www.epa.gov/evaluate


For more information on
this and other completed
evaluations at EPA or the
Evaluation Support Division,
visit the above link.
  •  There are an estimated 35,000 to 80,000 facilities across the country that are in
     the business of repairing and refinishing vehicles, particularly cars. Auto body
     shops present a wide array of environmental concerns, from use and emissions of
     hazardous materials such as methylene chloride, to discharges of polluted water
     into water systems, and worker exposure to toxic solvents and particulate matter.

  •  The National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants: Paint Stripping and
     Miscellaneous Surface Coating Operations at Area Sources, is a regulation that
     existing shops must comply with by January, 2011 and that new shops must
     comply with by January, 2008 or upon startup of operations. The rule requires
     that, for example: all spray painting must be done in a spray booth, painters
     must use spray guns and techniques that reduce overspray, all painters must
     receive training, and paint spray gun cleaning cannot release any mist of cleaning
     solvent to the air.

  •  States are currently considering how to implement the new regulation; ERP is
     one potential policy tool for implementation. ERP is an innovative approach to
     improving facilities' management practices within small business sectors. ERP is
     an integrated system that incorporates plain language compliance assistance that
     promotes pollution prevention, facility self-assessment and self-certification,
     agency inspections, statistically-based performance measurement, and where
     necessary, comprehensive facility investigations and targeted enforcement
     actions.

  •  The purpose of this evaluation  is to inform states and EPA regions who are
     currently considering developing programs to encourage auto body shops to
     adopt best practices and improve compliance with environmental regulations.

Evaluation Questions

  •  To what extent have the ERPs in DE, RI, and ME led to actual and/or expected
     adoption of selected best practices that reduce the environmental footprint of
     auto body shops?

  •  What environmental and health outcomes are estimated to result from auto body
     shops implementing these best practices?

  •  What are the cost implications of each program for regulators and auto body
     shops initially and over time?

  •  What is the cost-effectiveness of each program?
  •  Overall, what are the advantages and  disadvantages of each of the three ERPs in
     terms of reaching auto body shops, generating environmental and worker health
     outcomes, and achieving cost-effective results?
  •  What factors influenced the outcomes of each program (e.g., existing or
     impending regulations, regulatory/assistance offices involved in conducting the
     program, and extent of coordination with industry representatives)?

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Evaluation Questions Con't.
  •   What do our findings suggest regarding the circumstances under which ERPs are likely to produce
      cost-effective results?

  •   What is the current status of each program?
  •   What are the primary implementation challenges states faced in developing and implementing their
      programs?

  •   What factors influenced the states' decisions to continue, not continue, or modify their programs after
      initial pilots?
  •   How does the state and/or EPA Region involved in implementing each program view the program's
      results, and why?

Evaluation  Methods

  •   The evaluation used a non-experimental design  known as "One Group Pretest/Posttest," which
      involves measurement or observation of a group of subjects (auto body shops) prior to and after the
      application of an intervention (the ERP).  There were no control groups used, i.e., the states did not
      measure performance in a control group of auto body shops not subject to the ERP.

  •   To assess the behavioral and environmental outcomes of the ERPs, the evaluation primarily relied on
      existing data reported by each program, which captured what percentage of facilities use certain best
      practices during independent, random inspections  before and after ERP implementation. The analysis
      compares the percentage of shops using certain best practices before and after the ERP program and
      translates those changes in behaviors to environmental outcomes, where possible. Where this
      translation is not possible, the evaluation qualitatively discuss the benefits one would expect facilities
      would observe as a result of adopting these behaviors.

  •   ERP states did not collect quantitative data on long-term outcomes (e.g., emissions reductions), and
      therefore the evaluation was limited to estimating  this  information where possible.

  •   To assess the remaining evaluation questions, the evaluation relies on interviews with state program
      staff, EPA staff involved in supporting ERP, representatives of the States' ERP Consortium, and
      selected auto body shops.  For example, these interviews provided insights on program status, costs,
      factors that influenced outcomes, and implementation experiences.

Key Findings

  •   The evaluation findings  suggest that ERP is associated with improved business  practices in the auto
      body sector and is regarded as successful by both  state and  industry representatives. Quantifying
      environmental outcomes associated with ERP is difficult, and those outcomes that were quantified
      were relatively small. In addition, sustaining the program has proven to be difficult given resource
      constraints and overall regulatory priorities.

  •   Each state selected between 19 and 24 indicators  of environmental performance. States observed
      improved performance between the samples of facilities measured for the vast majority of indicators
      (observed performance  improved for 54  out of 65  indicators (83 percent) between baseline and post-
      certification). Of these 54 indicators, 29 (54 percent of the indicators where observed performance
      improved, and 45 percent of all indicators) were found to have statistically significant changes in
      performance. In addition, no statistically significant declines  in performance were found.

  •   For the measures where there were statistically significant improvements, one can infer that there
      was an increase in the proportion of the  entire population of auto body shops in the state following
      best practices. In other  words, for nearly half of the measured indicators, the evaluation findings
      suggest that the auto body sector as a whole is shifting to increased use of best practices, not just
      those shops that were included  in the samples measured.

  •   The greatest percentage of the total number of indicators with statistically significant improvements
      was observed in the air  emissions and worker health and safety categories.  In both of these


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      categories, half of the total set of indicators measured (not solely those improving, but the total
      number of indicators) showed statistically significant improvements.

  •   With regard to air emissions, the evaluation estimates that improvements in usage of low-
      VOC/waterbased solvents may have reduced VOC emissions by as much as 1.7 tons per year for all
      auto body shops in each of two states: Delaware and Maine (actual amounts could be less). In
      addition, estimated material usage associated with auto body shop spray gun cleaning operations
      declined by between 0.6 and 2.0 tons per year for all shops in Delaware. Finally, estimates are that
      improvements in hazardous waste management in Delaware may have increased the amount of
      hazardous waste being properly identified by as much as 22,440 pounds per month (actual amounts
      are likely to be less). All three of these estimates rely on numerous assumptions, and have
      considerable uncertainties, which are described in the full evaluation report. The evaluation was
      unable to quantify reductions in water discharges or improvements to worker health and safety.

  •   Note that while the overall trend in improving performance measured by states is consistent with the
      hypothesis that ERP leads to adoption of selected best practices, one cannot be certain of the extent
      to which the states' ERP alone caused or contributed to the observed changes in performance, in
      comparison to other factors. Other factors happening concurrently with ERP  may have also
      contributed to the observed changes in performance. For example, in Rhode Island ERP was
      implemented in tandem with the auto body shop license renewal process. In Delaware ERP was
      developed in tandem with a source category permit for this sector.

  •   The three states  included  in the evaluation spent a range of resources developing and implementing
      their ERPs. Estimated government costs (including state resources and an EPA State Innovation
      Grant) are $800 to $2,000 per auto body shop in the population for states conducting a single cycle of
      ERP. These costs are not inclusive of all of the state resources spent on staff throughout the program.
      States also dedicated staff time that is not fully captured in these cost estimates. For Rhode Island,
      total costs range from $400 to $700 per shop for two cycles of ERP (in other words, the costs per
      shop per cycle would be half as much).

  •   Compared to the likely outcomes of alternative approaches (e.g., following up on complaints or
      conducting infrequent inspections) that these three  states considered, states  perceive that ERP
      resulted in greater improvements in performance. These benefits of ERP typically come at a higher
      initial cost compared to these less resource-intensive alternatives. However, if states  conducted
      successive rounds of ERP, it's likely that per facility costs would be substantially reduced, as Rhode
      Island has found.
  •   A key factor related to cost effectiveness is the  number of facilities targeted by ERP. Specifically, ERP
      can be more cost effective for larger  populations of facilities, so long as the population is relatively
      homogenous, with a common set of regulatory  requirements and best practices.
  •   Another factor related to  the likelihood of a state achieving cost-effective results through ERP  is the
      degree to which state staff can  build  partnerships within (e.g., between different environmental media
      offices) and outside agency walls (e.g. Rhode Island's partnership with the University of Rhode
      Island). State staff within  all of the ERPs described in this evaluation forged partnerships within and
      outside their agencies to  implement the ERP. Successful design and implementation  of ERPs that deal
      with multiple environmental media require the cooperation among and buy-in from the various offices
      that are affected. Outside partners may provide support in the form of technical expertise and/or
      funding.
  •   Baseline performance and the likely extent of improvement (i.e., to what extent are facilities likely to
      be  able or willing to change their behavior) both have a  direct effect on the extent to which
      statistically significant changes may be observed.
  •   Key factors  leading to success of an ERP include sufficient funding, the regulatory context in which the
      program was implemented, effective  coordination and communication among involved offices, upper
      management buy-in, and continuing program support.


Recommendations
  •   Combine forces. States could  work together to realize the economies of scale possible with ERP.
  •   Decide on  a set of common indicators. It would be helpful to be able to compare and aggregate

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     ERP data for the same sector across programs.
  •  Collect quantitative data on facility practices, not just information on the proportions of
     shops utilizing specific practices, for a small number of indicators. This could help quantify
     environmental outcomes.
  •  Develop a tool to help states estimate environmental outcomes.
  •  Un-package ERP. States could consider different ways to implement different components of ERP.
  •  Consider implementing ERP primarily where larger populations of facilities are present.
     This approach has the potential to reduce per facility expenditures and increase the cost-effectiveness
     of the program.
  •  Develop a clearer agreement between EPA and states as to whether or not ERP can be
     used to address traditional regulatory programs.


Contact(s)
  •  John Heffelfinger, Office of Policy, Economics and  Innovation, Evaluation Support Division,
     heffelfinger.john@epa.gov

Report Link: http://www.epa.gov/evaluate/aboutjnnovations4.htm

Date Completed: September 2009
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