U.S. Climate Action Report - 2002
Third National Communication of the United States of America
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
-------
U.S. Climate Action Report - 2002
Third National Communication of the United States of America
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
You may electronically download this document from the following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Web site:
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/car/index.html.
To purchase copies of this report, visit the U.S. Government Printing Office Web site at http://bookstore.gpo.gov.
Phone orders may be submitted at 1-866-512-1800 (toll-free) or 1-202-512-1800 between 7:30 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., Eastern Time.
This document may be cited as follows: U.S. Department of State, U.S. Climate Action Report 2002, Washington, D.C., May 2002.
-------
Introduction and Overview 2
National Circumstances: The U.S. Context 4
Greenhouse Gas Inventory 5
Policies and Measures 5
Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions 6
Impacts and Adaptation 6
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology 6
Research and Systematic Observation 6
Education, Training, and Outreach 7
National Circumstances 8
Climate Profile 9
Geographic Profile 9
Population Profile 10
Government Structure 11
Federal Departments and Agencies 12
The U.S. Congress 12
States, Tribes, and Local Governments 12
The U.S. Court System 13
Economic Profile 13
Government and the Market Economy 13
Composition and Growth 13
Energy Production and Consumption 14
Resources 15
Production 16
Electricity Market Restructuring 17
Consumption 18
Sectoral Activities 18
Industry 18
Residential and Commercial Buildings 19
Transportation 20
Government 22
Waste 22
Agriculture 23
Grazing Land 23
Agricultural Land 23
Forests 24
Other Natural Resources 24
Wetlands 24
Wildlife 25
Water 25
Greenhouse Gas Inventory 26
Recent Trends in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 28
Global Warming Potentials 32
Carbon Dioxide Emissions 37
Energy 38
Industrial Processes 41
Land-Use Change and Forestry 42
Waste 42
-------
Methane Emissions 42
Landfills 43
Natural Gas and Petroleum Systems 43
Coal Mining 44
Agriculture 44
Other Sources 44
Nitrous Oxide Emissions 45
Agricultural Soil Management 45
Fuel Combustion 45
Nitric Acid Production 45
Manure Management 46
Adipic Acid Production 46
Other Sources 46
HFC, PFC, and SFg Emissions 46
Substitution of Ozone-Depleting Substances 46
Other Industrial Sources 46
Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances 46
Criteria Pollutant Emissions 48
Policies and Measures 50
National Policymaking Process 51
Federal Policies and Measures 52
Energy: Residential and Commercial 53
Energy: Industrial 54
Energy: Supply 55
Transportation 56
Industry (Non-CO2) 58
Agriculture 59
Forestry 60
Waste Management 60
Cross-sectoral 61
Nonfederal Policies and Measures 61
State Initiatives 61
Local Initiatives 62
Private-Sector and NGO Initiatives 62
Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions 70
The NEMS Model and Policies Coverage 71
Assumptions Used to Estimate Future CO2 Emissions 71
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2000—2020 72
Net U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2000-2020 73
CO2 Emissions 74
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 76
Carbon Sequestration 78
Adjustments to Greenhouse Gas Emissions 78
Future of the President's February 2002 Climate Change Initiative 78
Key Uncertainties Affecting Projections 79
Technology Development (+ or -) 79
Regulatory or Statutory Changes (+ or -) 80
Energy Prices (+ or -) 80
Economic Growth (+ or -) 80
Weather (+ or -) 80
-------
Impacts and Adaptation
Summary of the National Assessment
Introduction
Weather and Climate Context
Projected Changes in the Mean Climate
Projected Changes in Climate Variability
Potential Consequences of and Adaptation to Climate Change
Potential Interactions with Land Cover
Potential Interactions with Agriculture
Potential Interactions with Forests
Potential Interactions with Water Resources
Potential Interactions with Coastal Areas and Marine Resources
Potential Interactions with Human Health
Potential Impacts in Various U.S. Regions
Federal Research Activities
Interagency Research Subcommittees
Individual Agency Research Activities
Other Research Activities
81
81
83
84
84
87
88
89
92
96
99
103
106
109
109
110
111
112
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology
Types and Sources of U.S. Assistance
U.S. Government Assistance
NGO Assistance
Private-Sector Assistance
Major U.S. Government Initiatives
U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation
U.S. Country Studies Program
Climate Change Initiative
Public—Private Partnership Activities
Technology Cooperation Agreement Pilot Project
Climate Technology Initiative
U.S.—Asia Environmental Partnership
EcoLinks
Energy Partnership Program
Forest Conservation Partnerships
U.S. Government Assistance Addressing Vulnerability and Adaptation
U.S. Financial Flow Information, 1997-2000
Financial Contributions to the Global Environment Facility
Financial Contributions to Multilateral Institutions and Programs
Bilateral and Regional Financial Contributions
Summary of Financial Flow Information for 1997—2000
Funding Types
Regional Trends
Mitigation Activities
Adaptation Activities
Other Global Climate Change Activities
113
114
115
116
117
117
117
118
118
119
119
120
120
121
121
122
122
123
123
123
124
125
125
126
127
131
136
-------
Research and Systematic Observation
Research
U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative
Ongoing Broader Agenda for U.S. Research
National Climate Change Technology Initiative
Human Effects on and Responses to Environmental Changes
International Research Cooperation
Systematic Observation
Documentation of U.S. Climate Observations
In-situ Climate Observation
Satellite Observation Programs
Global Change Data and Information System
137
139
139
139
139
141
141
144
144
145
146
147
Appendices
Education, Training, and Outreach 148
U.S. Global Climate Research Program Education and Outreach 149
Regional Outreach 149
National Outreach 149
Federal Agency Education Initiatives 150
Department of Energy 150
National Aeronautics and Space Administration 150
Partnerships 150
Federal Agency Outreach 152
Department of Energy 152
Environmental Protection Agency 152
National Aeronautics and Space Administration 153
National Park Service 154
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 154
Smithsonian Institution 155
Partnerships 155
A: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends 156
B: Policies and Measures—Program Descriptions 163
C: Part 1—Selected Technology Transfer Activities 224
Part 2—Table 7.3: U.S. Direct Financial Contributions 232
and Commercial Sales Related to Implementation of
the UNFCCC
D: Climate Change Science: An Analysis of 249
Some Key Questions
E: Bibliography
256
-------
"The Earth's well-being is ... an issue important to America—
and it's an issue that should be important to every nation and
in every part of the world. My Administration is committed to
a leadership role on the issue of climate change. We recognize
our responsibility, and we will meet it—at home, in our hemi-
sphere, and in the world."—George W. Bush, June 2001
Chapter 1
Introduction
and Overview
lith this pledge, President Bush
[reiterated the seriousness of climate
' change and ordered a Cabinet-level
review of U.S. climate change policy. He
requested working groups to develop
innovative approaches that would: (1) be
consistent with the goal of stabilizing
greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere,- (2) be sufficiently flexible to
allow for new findings,- (3) support con-
tinued economic growth and prosperity,-
(4) provide market-based incentives,- (5)
incorporate technological advances,- and
(6) promote global participation.
The President's decision to take a
deeper look at climate change policy
arose from the recognition that the inter-
national dialogue begun to date lacked
the requisite participatory breadth for a
global response to climate change. At
the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro,
the United Nations Framework Conven-
tion on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
was adopted, with the ultimate objective
of providing a higher quality of life
-------
Introduction and Overview i 3
for future generations. Signatories
pledged to:
achieve... stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthro-
pogenic interference with the climate system.
Such a level should be achieved within a
timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to climate change, to
ensure that food production is not threat-
ened, and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner.
In Rio, ambitious plans were set in
motion to address climate change.
However, participation in constructing
measures for adapting to and mitigating
the effects of climate change fell short
of the breadth necessary to confront a
problem that President Bush recently
said has "the potential to impact every
corner of the world." A global problem
demands a truly participatory global
response, while at the same time taking
near-term action that would reduce pro-
jected growth in emissions cost-effec-
tively and enhance our ability to cope
with climate change impacts.
Based on his Cabinet's review and
recommendation, President Bush re-
cently announced a commitment to
reduce greenhouse gas intensity in the
United States by 18 percent over the
next decade through a combination of
voluntary, incentive-based, and existing
mandatory measures. This represents a
4.5 percent reduction from forecast
emissions in 2012, a serious, sensible,
and science-based response to this
global problem—despite the remaining
uncertainties concerning the precise
magnitude, timing, and regional pat-
terns of climate change. The President's
commitment also emphasized the need
for partners in this endeavor. All coun-
tries must actively work together to
achieve the long-term goal of stabilizing
greenhouse gas concentrations at a level
that will prevent dangerous interference
with the climate system.
For our part, the United States
intends to continue to be a constructive
and active Party to the Framework Con-
vention. We are leading global research
efforts to enhance the understanding of
the science of climate change, as called
for under the Framework Convention.
We lead the world in investment in cli-
mate science and in recent years have
spent $1.7 billion on federal research
annually. Since 1990, the United States
has provided over $18 billion for climate
system research—more resources than
any other country. In June 2001, Presi-
dent Bush announced a new Climate
Change Research Initiative to focus on
key remaining gaps in our understanding
of anthropogenic climate change and its
potential impacts.
As envisioned by the Framework
Convention, we are helping to develop
technologies to address climate change.
The President has pledged to reprioritize
research budgets under the National Cli-
mate Change Technology Initiative so
that funds will be available to develop
advanced energy and sequestration tech-
nologies. Energy policies improve effi-
ciency and substitute cleaner fuels, while
sequestration technologies will promote
economic and environmentally sound
methods for the capture and storage of
greenhouse gases.
We plan to increase bilateral support
for climate observation systems and to
finance even more demonstration proj-
ects of advanced energy technologies in
developing countries. President Bush's
Western Hemisphere Initiative—created
to enhance climate change cooperation
with developing countries in the Ameri-
cas and elsewhere—will also strengthen
implementation of our Framework Con-
vention commitments. In line with those
commitments, we have provided over
$1 billion in climate change-related assis-
tance to developing countries over the
last five years. All of this is just the begin-
ning: we intend to strengthen our coop-
eration on climate science and advanced
technologies around the world whenever
and wherever possible.
We continue to make progress in lim-
iting U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases
by becoming more energy efficient. In
the last decade, we have seen tremen-
dous U.S. economic growth, and our
level of emissions per unit of economic
output has declined significantly. The
President has committed the United
States to continue this improvement and
reduce intensity beyond forecast levels
through enhanced voluntary measures.
The United States is a world leader in
addressing and adapting to a variety of
national and global scientific problems
that could be exacerbated by climate
change, including malaria, hunger, mal-
nourishment, property losses due to
extreme weather events, and habitat loss
and other threats to biological diversity.
Climate change is a long-term prob-
lem, decades in the making, that cannot
be solved overnight. A real solution must
be durable, science-based, and economi-
cally sustainable. In particular, we seek
an environmentally sound approach that
will not harm the U.S. economy, which
remains a critically important engine of
global prosperity. We believe that eco-
nomic development is key to protecting
the global environment. In the real
world, no one will forego meeting basic
family needs to protect the global com-
mons. Environmental protection is nei-
ther achievable nor sustainable without
opportunities for continued develop-
ment and greater prosperity. Our objec-
tive is to ensure a long-term solution that
is environmentally effective, economi-
cally efficient and sustainable, and
appropriate in terms of addressing the
urgent problems of today while enhanc-
ing our ability to deal with future prob-
lems. Protecting the global environment
is too important a responsibility for any-
thing less.
In this U.S. Climate Action Report, we
provide our third formal national com-
munication under the Framework
Convention, as envisioned under Arti-
cles 4 and 12 of the Convention. We
describe our national circumstances,
identify existing and planned policies
and measures, indicate future trends in
greenhouse gas emissions, outline
expected impacts and adaptation meas-
ures, and provide information on finan-
cial resources, technology transfer,
research, and systematic observations.1
1 Some sections of this report (e.g., the projections in Chapter 5) are included, despite the absence of a binding require-
ment to do so under the Convention. Note that these projections do not include the impact of the President's climate
change initiative announced in February 2002, nor do they include the effects of measures in the National Energy Pol-
icy that have not yet been implemented.
-------
4 lU.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Preenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities,
U causing global mean surface air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature to rise.
While the changes observed over the last several decades are likely due mostly to human
activities, we cannot rule out that some significant part is also a reflection of natural vari-
ability.
Reducing the wide range of uncertainty inherent in current model predictions will require
major advances in understanding and modeling of the factors that determine atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the feedback processes that deter-
mine the sensitivity of the climate system. Specifically, this will involve reducing uncer-
tainty regarding:
• the future use of fossil fuels and future emissions of methane,
• the fraction of the future fossil fuel carbon that will remain in the atmosphere and pro-
vide radiative forcing versus exchange with the oceans or net exchange with the land
biosphere,
• the feedbacks in the climate system that determine both the magnitude of the change
and the rate of energy uptake by the oceans,
• the impacts of climate change on regional and local levels,
• the nature and causes of the natural variability of climate and its interactions with
forced changes, and
• the direct and indirect effects of the changing distributions of aerosols.
Knowledge of the climate system and of projections about the future climate is derived
from fundamental physics, chemistry, and observations. Data are then incorporated in
global circulation models. However, model projections are limited by the paucity of data
available to evaluate the ability of coupled models to simulate important aspects of cli-
mate. To overcome these limitations, it is essential to ensure the existence of a long-term
observing system and to make more comprehensive regional measurements of green-
house gases.
Evidence is also emerging that black carbon aerosols (soot), which are formed by incom-
plete combustion, may be a significant contributor to global warming, although their rela-
tive importance is difficult to quantify at this point. These aerosols have significant
negative health impacts, particularly in developing countries.
While current analyses are unable to predict with confidence the timing, magnitude, or
regional distribution of climate change, the best scientific information indicates that if
greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, changes are likely to occur. The U.S.
National Research Council has cautioned, however, that "because there is considerable
uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts
to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of
future warmings should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either
upward or downward)." Moreover, there is perhaps even greater uncertainty regarding
the social, environmental, and economic consequences of changes in climate.
Source: NRC2001a.
The remainder of this chapter provides
a brief description of the climate system
science that sets the context for U.S.
action, as well as an overview of the U.S.
program that is the focus of this report.
NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES:
THE U.S. CONTEXT
The perspective of the United States
on climate change is informed by our
economic prosperity, the rich diversity
of our climate conditions and natural
resources, and the demographic trends
of over 280 million residents. Because
of our diverse climatic zones, climate
change will not affect the country uni-
formly. This diversity will also enhance
our economy's resilience to future cli-
mate change.
Higher anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions are a consequence of robust
economic growth: higher incomes tradi-
tionally promote increased expenditures
of energy. During the 1990s, invest-
ments in technology led to increases in
energy efficiency, which partly offset the
increases in greenhouse gas emissions
that would normally attend strong eco-
nomic growth. In addition, much of the
economic growth in the United States
has occurred in less energy-intensive
sectors (e.g., computer technologies).
Consequently, in the 1990s the direct
and proportionate correlation between
economic growth and greenhouse gas
emissions was altered.
While the United States is the world's
largest consumer of energy, it is also the
world's largest producer of energy, with
vast reserves of coal, natural gas, and
crude oil. Nevertheless, our energy use
per unit of output—i.e., the energy
intensity of our economy—compares
relatively well with the rest of the world.
The President's new National Energy Polity
(NEP) includes recommendations that
would reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by expanded use of both existing and
developing technologies (NEPD Group
2001). The NEP's recommendations
address expanded nuclear power genera-
tion,- improved energy efficiency for
vehicles, buildings, appliances, and
industry,- development of hydrogen fuels
and renewable technologies,- increased
access to federal lands and expedited
licensing practices,- and expanded use of
cleaner fuels, including initiatives for
coal and natural gas. Tax incentives rec-
ommended in the NEP and the Presi-
dent's FY 2003 Budget will promote use
of renewable energy forms and com-
bined heat-and-power systems and will
encourage technology development.
The nation's response to climate
change—our vulnerability and our
-------
Introduction and Overview B 5
ability to adapt—is also influenced by
U.S. governmental, economic, and
social structures, as well as by the con-
cerns of U.S. citizens. The political and
institutional systems participating in the
development and protection of environ-
mental and natural resources in the
United States are as diverse as the
resources themselves.
President Bush said last year that
technology offers great promise to
significantly and cost-effectively reduce
emissions in the long term. Our
national circumstances—our prosperity
and our diversity—may shape our
response to climate change, but our
commitment to invest in innovative
technologies and research will ensure
the success of our response.
GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
This report presents U.S. anthro-
pogenic greenhouse gas emission trends
from 1990 through 1999 and fulfills the
U.S. commitment for 2001 for an
annual inventory report to the
UNFCCC. To ensure that the U.S.
emissions inventory is comparable to
those of other UNFCCC signatory
countries, the emission estimates were
calculated using methodologies consis-
tent with those recommended in the
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC/UNEP/
OECD/IEA 1997).
Naturally occurring greenhouse
gases—that is, gases that trap heat—
include water vapor, carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), and ozone (O3). Several classes
of halogenated substances that contain
fluorine, chlorine, or bromine are also
greenhouse gases, but for the most part,
they are solely a product of industrial
activities. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),
hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),
and bromofluorocarbons (halons) are
stratospheric ozone-depleting sub-
stances covered under the Montreal Pro-
tocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone
Layer and, hence, are not included in
national greenhouse gas inventories.
Some other halogenated substances—
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluoro-
carbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride
(SFg)—do not deplete stratospheric
ozone but are potent greenhouse gases
and are accounted for in national green-
house gas inventories.
Although CO2, CH4, and N2O occur
naturally in the atmosphere, their atmos-
pheric concentrations have been affected
by human activities. Since pre-industrial
time (i.e., since about 1750), concentra-
tions of these greenhouse gases have
increased by 31, 151, and 17 percent,
respectively (IPCC 200 Id). This
increase has altered the chemical com-
position of the Earth's atmosphere and
has likely affected the global climate
system.
In 1999, total U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions were about 12 percent above
emissions in 1990. A somewhat lower
(0.9 percent) than average (1.2 percent)
annual increase in emissions, especially
given the robust economic growth
during this period, was primarily attrib-
utable to the following factors: warmer
than average summer and winter condi-
tions, increased output from nuclear
power plants, reduced CH4 emissions
from coal mines, and reduced HFC-23
by-product emissions from the chemical
manufacture of HCFC-22.
As the largest source of U.S. green-
house gas emissions, CO2 accounted for
82 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions in 1999. Carbon dioxide from
fossil fuel combustion was the dominant
contributor. Emissions from this source
category grew by 13 percent between
1990 and 1999.
Methane accounted for 9 percent of
total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in
1999. Landfills, livestock operations, and
natural gas systems were the source of 75
percent of total CH4 emissions. Nitrous
oxide accounted for 6 percent of total
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1999,
and agricultural soil management repre-
sented 69 percent of total N2O emis-
sions. The main anthropogenic activities
producing N2O in the United States
were agricultural soil management, fuel
combustion in motor vehicles, and
adipic and nitric acid production
processes. HFCs, PFCs, and SFg
accounted for 2 percent of total U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions in 1999, and
substitutes for ozone-depleting sub-
stances comprised 42 percent of all
HFC. PFC. and SF, emissions.
' ' 6
Evidence is also emerging that black
carbon aerosols (soot), which are formed
by incomplete combustion, may be a sig-
nificant anthropogenic agent. Although
the U.S. greenhouse gas inventory does
not cover emissions of these particles,
we anticipate that U.S. research will
focus more on them in coming years.
POLICIES AND MEASURES
U.S. climate change programs
reduced the growth of greenhouse gas
emissions by an estimated 240 teragrams
(million metric tons) of CO2 equivalent
in 2000 alone. This reduction helped to
significantly lower (17 percent since
1990) greenhouse gases emitted per unit
of gross domestic product (GDP), and
thus ranks as a step forward in addressing
climate change.
However, the U.S. effort was given a
potentially greater boost in June 2001,
when President Bush announced major
new initiatives to advance climate
change science and technology. These
initiatives came about after government
consultation with industry leaders, the
scientific community, and environmen-
tal advocacy groups indicated that more
could and should be done to address
scientific uncertainties and encourage
technological innovation.
In February 2002, the President
announced a new U.S. approach to the
challenge of global climate change.
This approach contains policies that
will harness the power of markets and
technology to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. It will also create new part-
nerships with the developing world to
reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of
both the U.S. economy and economies
worldwide through policies that sup-
port the economic growth that makes
technological progress possible.
The U.S. plan will reduce the green-
house gas intensity of the U.S. econ-
omy by 18 percent in ten years. This
reduction exceeds the 14 percent pro-
jected reduction in greenhouse gas
intensity in the absence of the addi-
tional proposed policies and measures.
-------
6 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
The new measures include an enhanced
emission reduction registry,- creation of
transferable credits for emission reduc-
tion,- tax incentives for investment in
low-emission energy equipment,- sup-
port for research for energy efficiency
and sequestration technology,- emission
reduction agreements with specific
industrial sectors, with particular
attention to reducing transportation
emissions,- international outreach, in
tandem with funding, to promote
climate research globally,- carbon
sequestration on farms and forests,- and,
most important, review of progress in
2012 to determine if additional steps
may be needed—as the science justi-
fies—to achieve further reductions in
our national greenhouse gas emission
intensity.
The above strategies are expected to
achieve emission reductions compara-
ble to the average reductions pre-
scribed by the Kyoto agreement, but
without the threats to economic
growth that rigid national emission lim-
its would bring. The registry structure
for voluntary participation of U.S.
industry in reducing emissions will seek
compatibility with emerging domestic
and international approaches and prac-
tices, and will include provisions to
ensure that early responders are not
penalized in future climate actions. Fur-
thermore, the President's approach pro-
vides a model for developing nations,
setting targets that reduce greenhouse
gas emissions without compromising
economic growth.
PROJECTED GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS
Forecasts of economic growth,
energy prices, program funding, and
regulatory developments were inte-
grated to project greenhouse gas emis-
sions levels in 2005, 2010, 2015, and
2020. When sequestration is accounted
for, total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
are projected to increase by 43 percent
between 2000 and 2020. This increased
growth in absolute emissions will be
accompanied by a decline in emissions
per unit of GDP. Note that these fore-
casts exclude the impact of the
President's climate change initiative
announced in February 2002.
Despite best efforts, the uncertain-
ties associated with the projected levels
of greenhouse gas emissions are prima-
rily associated with forecast methodol-
ogy, meteorological variations, and
rates of economic growth and techno-
logical development. In addition, since
the model used to generate these
projections does not completely incor-
porate all current and future policies
and measures to address greenhouse gas
emissions, these measures, as well as
legislative or regulatory actions not yet
in force, add another layer of uncer-
tainty to these projections.
IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION
One of the weakest links in our
knowledge is the connection between
global and regional projections of cli-
mate change. The National Research
Council's response to the President's
request for a review of climate change
policy specifically noted that funda-
mental scientific questions remain
regarding the specifics of regional and
local projections (NRC 200la). Pre-
dicting the potential impacts of climate
change is compounded by a lack of
understanding of the sensitivity of
many environmental systems and
resources—both managed and unman-
aged—to climate change.
Chapter 6 provides an overview of
potential negative and positive impacts
and possible response options, based
primarily on Climate Change Impacts on the
United States-. The Potential Consequences of
Climate Variability and Change (NAST
2000). This assessment used historical
records, model simulations, and sensi-
tivity analyses to explore our potential
vulnerability to climate change and
highlighted gaps in our knowledge.
The United States is engaged in
many efforts that will help our nation
and the rest of the world—particularly
the developing world—reduce vulnera-
bility and adapt to climate change. By
and large these efforts address public
health and environmental problems
that are of urgent concern today and
that may be exacerbated by climate
change. Examples include reducing the
spread of malaria, increasing agricul-
tural and forest productivity, reducing
the damages from extreme weather
events, and improving methods to fore-
cast their timings and locations. Besides
benefiting society in the short term,
these efforts will enhance our ability to
adapt to climate change in the longer
term.
Challenges associated with climate
change will most likely increase during
the 21st century. Although changes in
the environment will surely occur, our
nation's economy should continue to
provide the means for successful adap-
tation to climate changes.
FINANCIAL RESOURCES AND
TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY
To address climate change effec-
tively, developed and developing coun-
tries must meet environmental
challenges together. The United States
is committed to helping developing
countries and countries with economies
in transition meet these challenges in
ways that promote economic well-
being and protect natural resources.
This commitment has involved many
players, ranging from government to
the private sector, who have con-
tributed significant resources to devel-
oping countries. As recognized in the
UNFCCC guidelines, this assistance
can take the form of hard and/or soft
technology transfer.
Projects targeting hard technology
transfer, such as equipment to control
emissions and increase energy effi-
ciency, can be particularly effective in
reducing emissions. And projects that
target the transfer of soft technologies,
such as capacity building and institu-
tion strengthening through the sharing
of technical expertise, can help coun-
tries reduce their vulnerability to the
impacts of climate change. But whether
hard or soft, technology transfer pro-
grams are most effective when they are
approached collaboratively and are
congruent with the development objec-
tives and established legal framework of
the target country. To this end, the
United States works closely with
-------
Introduction and Overview 7
beneficiary countries to ensure a good
fit between the resources it provides
and the country's needs.
RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC
OBSERVATION
The United States leads the world
in research on climate and other
global environmental changes, funding
approximately half of the world's
climate change research expenditures.
We intend to continue funding research
in order to ensure vigorous, ongoing
programs aimed at narrowing the uncer-
tainties in our knowledge of climate
change. These research programs will
help advance the understanding of cli-
mate change.
The President's major new initiatives
directed at addressing climate change
are informed by a wealth of input and
are intended to result in significant
improvements in climate modeling,
observation, and research efforts. The
long-term vision embraced by the new
initiatives is to help government, the
private sector, and communities make
informed management decisions regard-
ing climate change in light of persistent
uncertainties.
EDUCATION, TRAINING,
AND OUTREACH
The United States undertakes and
supports a broad range of activities
aimed at enhancing public understand-
ing and awareness of climate change.
These activities range from educational
initiatives sponsored by federal agen-
cies to cooperation with independent
research and academic organizations.
Nongovernmental organizations, in-
dustry, and the press also play active
roles in increasing public awareness
and interest in climate change.
The goal of all of these endeavors—
education, training, and public aware-
ness—is to create an informed
populace. The United States is commit-
ted to providing citizens with access to
the information necessary to critically
evaluate the consequences of policy
options to address climate change in a
cost-effective manner that is sustainable
and effective in achieving the Frame-
work Convention's long-term goal.
-------
Chapter 2
National
Circumstances
During the 1990s, greenhouse gas
emissions per unit of gross domestic
product (GDP) declined steadily
due to continued investments in new
energy-efficient technologies and an
increase in the portion of GDP attribut-
able to the nonmanufacturing and less
energy-intensive manufacturing sectors.
However, aggregate U.S. greenhouse
gas emissions have continued to
increase over the past few years, prima-
rily as a result of economic growth and
the accompanying rise in demand for
energy.
U.S. energy needs and, hence, emis-
sions of greenhouse gases are also heav-
ily influenced by a number of other
factors, including climate, geography,
land use, resource base, and population
growth. How the nation responds to
the issue of climate change is affected
by U.S. governmental, economic, and
social structures, as well as by the avail-
ability of technologies and wealth,
which allows such technologies to be
-------
National Circumstances i 9
employed. All of these factors also
affect the nation's vulnerability to cli-
mate change and its ability to adapt to
a changing natural environment.
Global climate change presents
unique challenges and opportunities for
the United States. This chapter
describes U.S. national circumstances
as they relate to climate change: histor-
ical developments, current conditions,
and trends in those conditions.
CLIMATE PROFILE
The diverse U.S. climate zones,
topography, and soils support many
ecological communities and supply
renewable resources for many human
uses. The nature and distribution of
these resources have played a critical
role in the development of the U.S.
economy, thus influencing the pattern
of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
U.S. climate conditions are repre-
sentative of all the major regions of the
world, except the ice cap. Average
annual temperatures range from —1 to
+ 4°C (30-40°F) in the North to
21-27°C (70-80°F) in the South, and
have significant implications for energy
demand across the country. In the
North, heating needs dominate cooling
needs, while the reverse is true in the
South. The number of heating and
cooling degree-days across U.S. regions
illustrates this climatic diversity (Figure
2-1). Because of this diversity of climate
and ecological zones, describing the
effects of climate change on the nation
as either positive or negative overall is
an oversimplification.
U.S. baseline rainfall levels also vary
significantly by region, with most of
the western states being arid. Although
the eastern states only rarely experience
severe drought, they are increasingly
vulnerable to flooding and storm surges
as sea level rises, particularly in increas-
ingly densely populated coastal areas.
In recent years, although deaths due to
tornadoes, floods, and tropical storms
have declined substantially, insurance
losses have increased. If extreme
weather events of this kind were to
occur with greater frequency or inten-
sity (which may or may not happen),
damages could be extensive.
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE
The federal government owns slightly
more than 20 percent of the total U.S. land
area of nearly 920 million hectares (over 2
billion acres). By contrast, the federal gov-
ernment owns over 65 percent of Alaska's
nearly 150 million hectares (370 million
acres), the state government owns nearly
25 percent, private ownership accounts for
about 10 percent, and lands held in trust by
the Bureau of Indian Affairs account only
for about one-third of 1 percent.
The private sector plays a primary role
in developing and managing U.S. natural
resources. However, federal, state, and
local governments also manage and pro-
tect these resources through regulation,
economic incentives, and education. Gov-
ernments and private interests also manage
lands set aside for forests, parks, wildlife
reserves, special research areas, recre-
ational areas, and suburban and urban open
spaces. Table 2-1 and Figure 2-2 illustrate
the composition and share of the individ-
ual components of U.S. land resources in
1997. This snapshot is discussed in greater
detail later in this chapter.
FIGURE 2-1 Climatic Diversity in the Contiguous U.S.
Regions of the country with cooler climates may benefit from climate change through reduced demand for heating, while energy consumption
for cooling may increase in warmer regions, which could result in higher emissions of greenhouse gases.
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
6,621
6,421
6,635
5,839
675
736
Cooling Degree-Days,
30-Year Normals
Heating Degree-Days,
30-Year Normals
i576
3,245
1,193
6941
Notes:
• Cooling and heating degree-days represent the number of degrees that the daily average temperature is above /cooling) or below /heating) B5°F. The daily average temperature is the
mean of the maximum and minimum temperatures for a 24-hour period. For example, a weather station recording a mean daily temperature of 40°F would report 25 heating degree-
days.
• Degree-day normals are simple arithmetic averages of annual degree-days from 1961 to 1990.
• Data for the Pacific region exclude Alaska and Hawaii.
Source: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000a.
-------
10 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
POPULATION PROFILE
Population levels and growth rates
drive a nation's consumption of energy
and other resources, as more people
require more energy services. The popu-
lation dispersion in the United States
increases the need for transportation
services, and population density and
household size influence housing sizes.
Settlement patterns and population den-
sity also affect the availability of land for
various uses.
With a population of just over 280
million in 2000, the United States is the
third most populous country in the
world, after China and India. U.S. popu-
lation density, however, is relatively low
(Figure 2-3). Population density also
varies widely within the United States,
and those patterns are changing as peo-
ple move not only from rural to metro-
politan areas, but also from denser city
cores to surrounding suburbs. In addi-
tion, populations in the warmer parts of
the country—the Sunbelt in the South
and Southwest—are growing more rap-
idly than in other parts, showing a pref-
erence for warmer climates.
Overall, the annual rate of U.S. pop-
ulation growth has fallen from slightly
over 1 percent in 1990 to about 1 per-
cent in 2000. But this is still high by the
standards of the Organization of Eco-
nomic Cooperation and Development
(OECD)—about five times the rate in
Japan, and more than three times the
TABLE 2-1 AND FiGORE 2-2 U.S. Land Use: 1997
Land is used in many different ways in the United States. Much of the land is forested or used for agricultural purposes.
Land Use Hectares
Acres
(in millions)
Urban Land 25
Residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional land. Also includes land for construction sites; sani-
tary landfills; sewage treatment plants; water control structures and spillways; and airports, highways,
railroads, and other transportation facilities.
Forest-Use Land 260
At least 10 percent stocked by single-stemmed forest trees of any size, which will be at least 4 meters
(13 feet) tall at maturity. When viewed vertically, canopy cover is 25 percent or greater.
Cropland Used for Crops 140
Areas used for the production of adapted crops for harvest.
Cropland Idled, including Conservation Reserve Program 15
Includes land in cover and soil improvement crops, and completely idle cropland. Some cropland is idle
each year for various physical and economic reasons. Acreage diverted from crops to soil-conserving
uses underfederal farm programs is included in this component. For example, cropland enrolled in the
Federal Conservation Reserve Program is included.
Cropland Used for Pasture 30
Generally considered as being tilled, planted in field crops, and then reseeded to pasture at varying inter-
vals. However, some cropland pasture is marginal for crop uses and may remain in pasture indefinitely.
Also includes some land that was used for pasture before crops reached maturity and some land that
could have been cropped without additional improvement.
Grassland Pasture and Range 235
Principally native grasses, grasslike plants, forbs or shrubs suitable for grazing and browsing, and intro-
duced forage species that are managed with little or no chemicals or fertilizer being applied. Examples
include grasslands, savannas, many wetlands, some deserts, and tundra.
Special Uses 115
Includes national and state parks and wildlife areas, defense installations, and rural transportation.
Miscellaneous Other Land 95
Includes rural residential, marshes, open swamps, deserts, tundra, and other areas not inventoried.
TOTAL LAND, 50 STATES
65
640
350
40
70
580
285
235
Miscellaneous Other Land -10%
Special Uses-13% \
Note: Individual land uses may not sum to total land due to rounding.
Source: USDA/NRCS 2001.
Cropland Used for Crops-15%
Forest-Use Land -28%
Urban Land-3%
Cropland Used for Pasture -3%
Cropland Idled, including CRP-2%
Grassland, Pasture, and Range -26%
-------
National Circumstances i 11
rate in the European Union. Among the
OECD countries, the United States has
been and continues to be one of the
largest recipients of immigrants (in
absolute terms). Net immigration con-
tributes about one-third of the total
annual population growth, and natural
increase (births minus deaths) con-
tributes the remaining two-thirds.
The U.S. population is aging. The
current median age is about 35 years,
compared to about 33 in 1990 and 28 in
1970. This change in median age has
been a result of both an increase in life
expectancy, which now stands at 77
years, and reduced fertility rates. Along
with an aging population, trends also
indicate a steady reduction in average
household size, as people marry later,
have fewer children, are more likely to
divorce, and are more likely to live
alone as they age. Thus, between 1970
and 2000, while the population has
grown by nearly 40 percent, the num-
ber of households has grown by over 65
percent.
Although the average household
size has declined, the average size of
housing units has been increasing.
Between 1978 and 1997, the propor-
tion of smaller housing units (with four
or fewer rooms) has decreased from
about 35 to 30 percent, and the propor-
tion of large housing units (with seven
or more rooms) has increased from
about 20 to nearly 30 percent. In gen-
eral, larger housing units result in
increased demands for heating, air con-
ditioning, lighting, and other energy-
related needs.
The share of the total U.S. popula-
tion living in metropolitan areas of at
least one million people has increased
to nearly 60 percent in 2000, up from
nearly 30 percent in 1950. This growth
has been concentrated in suburbs,
rather than in city centers. In fact, most
major cities have experienced declines
in population, as crime, congestion,
high taxes, and the desire for better
schools have led people to move to the
suburbs. As a result, population densi-
ties in the U.S. metropolitan areas are
far lower than in metropolitan areas
around the world, and they continue to
decline. For example, the ten largest
European cities, on average, have popu-
lation densities four times greater than
the ten largest U.S. cities. The
increased concentration of the U.S
population in the suburbs has resulted
in both greater reliance on decentral-
ized travel modes, such as the automo-
bile, and relatively high per capita
energy use.
Another factor leading to higher
emissions is the increasing mobility of
the U.S. population. The average U.S.
citizen tends to move more than ten
times in his or her lifetime. According to
the 1990 census, nearly 40 percent of
U.S. residents do not live in the state
where they were born, as compared to
about 30 percent in 1980 and about 25
percent in 1970. Families are often dis-
persed across the country for education,
career, or personal reasons. All of these
factors have led to an ever-growing need
for transportation services.
GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE
The U.S. political and institutional
systems participating in the develop-
ment and protection of environmental
and natural resources are as varied as
the resources themselves. These sys-
tems span federal, state, and local gov-
ernment jurisdictions, and include
legislative, regulatory, judicial, and
executive institutions.
The U.S. government is divided into
three separate branches: the executive
branch, which includes the Executive
FIGURE 2-3 U.S. Population Density: 2000
Though the United States is the third most populous country in the world, U.S. population density is relatively low. This combination tends to
have negative implications for energy and automobile use and, hence, emissions of greenhouse gases.
Population per
Square Kilometer
Note: International population density comparisons have been rounded.
Sources: U.S. DOC/Census 2000 and World Bank 2000.
-------
12 ! U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Office of the President, executive
departments, and independent agen-
cies,- the legislative branch (the U.S.
Congress),- and the judicial branch
(the U.S. court system). The distinct
separation of powers in this tripartite
system is quite different from parlia-
mentary governments.
Federal Departments
and Agencies
The executive branch is comprised
of 14 executive departments, 7 agen-
cies, and a host of commissions, boards,
other independent establishments, and
government corporations. The tradi-
tional functions of a department or an
agency are to help the President pro-
pose legislation,- to enact, administer,
and enforce regulations and rules imple-
menting legislation,- to implement Exec-
utive Orders,- and to perform other
activities in support of the institution's
mission, such as encouraging and fund-
ing the research, development, and
demonstration of new technologies.
No single department, agency, or
level of government in the United
States has sole responsibility for the
panoply of issues associated with cli-
mate change. In many cases, the
responsibilities of federal agencies are
established by law, with limited admin-
istrative discretion. At the federal level,
U.S. climate change policy is deter-
mined by an interagency coordinating
committee, chaired from within the
Executive Office of the President, and
staffed with members of the executive
offices and officials from the relevant
departments and agencies, including
the Departments of Agriculture, Com-
merce, Defense, Energy, Justice, State,
Transportation, and Treasury, as well as
the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency and the U.S. Agency for Inter-
national Development.
The U.S. Congress
As the legislative branch of the U.S.
government, Congress also exercises
responsibility for climate change and
other environmental and natural
resource issues at the national level.
It influences environmental policy
through two principal vehicles: creation
of laws and oversight of the federal exec-
utive branch. Thus, Congress can enact
laws establishing regulatory regimes for
environmental purposes, and can pass
bills to appropriate funds for environ-
mental purposes. Under its constitu-
tional authority, Congress ratifies
international treaties, such as the United
Nations Framework Convention on Cli-
mate Change.
The U.S. Congress comprises two
elected chambers—the Senate and the
House of Representatives—having gen-
erally equal functions in lawmaking.
The Senate has 100 members, elected
to six-year terms, with two representa-
tives for each of the 50 states. The
House has 435 members, elected to
two-year terms, each of whom repre-
sents an electoral district of roughly
equal population. The less populated
but often resource-rich regions of the
country, therefore, have proportion-
ately greater representation in the Sen-
ate than in the House.
Environmental proposals, like most
other laws, may be initiated in either
chamber of the U.S. Congress. After
their introduction, proposals or "bills" are
referred to specialized committees and
subcommittees, which hold public hear-
ings on the bills to receive testimony
from interested and expert parties. After
reviewing the testimony, the committees
and subcommittees deliberate and revise
the bills, and then submit them for
debate by the full membership of that
chamber. Differences between bills origi-
nating in either the House or the Senate
are resolved in a formal conference
between the two chambers. To become a
law, a bill must be approved by the
majorities of both chambers, and then
must be signed by the President. The
President may oppose and veto a bill, but
Congress may override a veto with a two-
thirds majority from each chamber.
As a rule, spending bills must go
through this process twice. First, the
committee responsible for the relevant
issue must submit a bill to authorize the
expenditure. Then, once both chambers
pass the authorization bill, the Appropri-
ations Committee, in a separate process,
must submit a bill appropriating funds
from the budget. The funds that are
actually appropriated often are less than
the authorized amount.
States, Tribes, and
Local Governments
States, Native American tribal
organizations, localities, and even
regional associations also exert
significant influence over the passage,
initiation, and administration of envi-
ronmental, energy, natural resource,
and other climate-related programs.
For example, the authority to regulate
electricity production and distribution
lies with state and local public utility
commissions. In addition, the regula-
tion of building codes—strongly tied
to the energy efficiency of buildings—
is also controlled at the state and local
levels.
Although the federal government
promulgates and oversees environ-
mental regulations at the national
level, the states and tribes often are
delegated the authority to implement
some federal laws by issuing permits
and monitoring compliance with
regulatory standards. The states also
generally have the discretion to set
environmental standards that are more
stringent than the national standards.
Individual states also enjoy autonomy
in their approach to managing their
environmental resources that are not
subject to federal laws. In addition to
regulation, some states and localities
have developed voluntary and incen-
tive programs that encourage energy
efficiency and conservation, and/or
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
Local power to regulate land use is
derived from a state's power to enact
legislation to promote the health,
safety, and welfare of its citizens. States
vary in the degree to which they dele-
gate these "powers" to local govern-
ments, but land use is usually
controlled to a considerable extent by
local governments (county or city).
This control may take the form of
authority to adopt comprehensive
land-use plans to enact zoning ordi-
nances and subdivision regulations or
-------
National Circumstances i 13
to restrict shoreline, floodplain, or wet-
land development.
The U.S. Court System
The U.S. court system is also crucial
to the disposition of environmental
issues. Many environmental cases are
litigated in the federal courts. The role
of the courts is to settle disagreements
on how to interpret the law. The fed-
eral court system is three-tiered: the
district court level,- the first appellate
(or circuit) court level,- and the second
and final appellate level (the U.S.
Supreme Court). There are 94 federal
district courts, organized into federal
circuits, and 13 federal appeals courts.
Cases usually enter the federal court
system at the district court level,
though some challenges to agency
actions are heard directly in appellate
courts, and disputes between states may
be brought directly before the U.S.
Supreme Court. Generally, any person
(regardless of citizenship) may file a
complaint alleging a grievance. In civil
enforcement cases, complaints are
brought on behalf of the government
by the U.S. attorney general and, in
some instances, may be filed by citizens
as well.
Sanctions and relief in civil environ-
mental cases may include monetary
penalties, awards of damages, and
injunctive and declaratory relief. Courts
may direct, for example, that pollution
be controlled, that contaminated sites
be cleaned up, or that environmental
impacts be assessed before a project is
initiated. Criminal cases under federal
environmental laws may be brought
only by the government—i.e., the
attorney general or state attorneys
general. Criminal sanctions in environ-
mental cases may include fines and
imprisonment.
ECONOMIC PROFILE
The U.S. is endowed with a large
and dynamic population, bountiful land
and other natural resources, and vibrant
competition in a market economy.
These factors have contributed to mak-
ing the U.S. economy (in terms of its
real GDP) the largest in the world,
accounting for over one-fourth of the
global economy.
Government and the
Market Economy
A number of principles, institutions,
and technical factors have played a role
in the evolution of the U.S. market
economy. The first of these is the
respect for property rights, which
includes the right to own, use, and
transfer private property to one's own
advantage. The U.S. economic system
is also underpinned by a reliance on
market forces, as opposed to tradition
or force, as the most efficient means of
organizing economic activity. In other
words, in a well-functioning market,
relative prices are the primary basis on
which economic agents within the U.S.
economy make decisions about produc-
tion and consumption. Ideally, the price
system, combined with a system of
well-defined and well-protected private
property rights, allocates the resources
of an economy in a way that produces
the greatest possible economic welfare.
However, in some cases, due to
imperfect information, lack of clearly
defined property rights for public
goods (such as air and water), and/or
other market imperfections, the pro-
duction of goods and services creates
externalities (i.e., costs or benefits) that
are not borne directly by the producers
and consumers of those goods and serv-
ices. For example, if the production of a
good has environmental costs that are
not borne by its producers or con-
sumers, that product may be priced too
low, thereby stimulating excess demand
and pollution. Alternatively, research
and development (R&D) may produce
benefits to society beyond those that
accrue to the firm doing the research,
but if those benefits are not captured in
the price, firms will underinvest in
R&D. Under such circumstances, the
U.S. government intervenes to alter the
allocation of resources.
Government intervention may in-
clude limiting the physical quantity of
pollution that can be produced, or
charging polluters a fee for each unit of
pollution emitted. As a practical matter,
however, accurately establishing the
cost of the externality to be internal-
ized by a fee, a tax, or a regulation can
be very difficult. There is also a risk that
government intervention could have
other, unintended consequences. For
these reasons, the U.S. government
tends to be cautious in its interventions,
although it does take actions necessary
to protect the economy, the environ-
ment, human health, natural resources,
and national security.
In addition, many government inter-
ventions are intended to correct market
imperfections and facilitate smooth
functioning of markets. By protecting
property rights, producing public goods
such as roads and other types of infra-
structure, formulating policies that inter-
nalize external costs (e.g., environmental
policies), and enacting legislation to
ensure a minimum standard of living for
all of its citizens, the U.S. government
fosters an environment in which market
forces can function effectively. Finally,
the government inevitably influences
the economy through regulatory and fis-
cal processes, which in turn affect the
functioning of markets.
Composition and Growth
Robust economic growth typically
leads to higher greenhouse gas emis-
sions and degradation of environmental
resources in general. Nonetheless, it is
often the case that as the health of the
economy improves and concerns about
unemployment and economic growth
lessen, greater emphasis is placed on
environmental issues.
From 1960 to 2000, the U.S. econ-
omy grew at an average annual rate of
over 3 percent, raising real GDP from
about $2 trillion to over $9 trillion (in
1996 constant dollars). This implies
that, with population growth averaging
about 1 percent over the same period,
real GDP per capita has increased at an
average annual rate of over 2 percent to
about $32,800 in 2000 from nearly
$13,300 in 1960 (all in 1996 constant
dollars).
Between 1960 and 2000, the labor
force more than doubled from slightly
over 65 million to about 135 million,
-------
14 i O.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
as the influx of women into the work From the latter part of 1991 through
force raised the overall labor participa- 2000, the United States experienced the
tion rate from nearly 60 percent to over longest peacetime economic expansion
65 percent. The rapid growth in the size in history. The average annual U.S. eco-
of the labor force has been led by the nomic growth (in terms of real GDP)
service sector (which includes communi- was about 3 percent per year between
cations, utilities, finance, insurance, and 1991 and 1995 and more than 4 percent
real estate), as shown in Figure 2-4. per year between 1996 and 2000. Dur-
While the size of the service sector labor ing the second half of 2000, the econ-
force more than doubled between 1970 omy, nonetheless, showed signs of
and 2000, its sectoral share in the U.S. moderating, with real annual GDP
labor force increased by more than 40 growth registering at a little over 3 per-
percent over the same period. Employ- cent in 2000, relative to the previous
ment in several other industries, such as year. Overall, unemployment was
construction, trade, and finance also reduced to about 4 percent in 2000,
increased significantly, along with their while producing healthy increases in real
sectoral shares in the U.S. labor force. In wages and real disposable income. Both
contrast, employment in agriculture, personal consumption and industrial
along with its sectoral share in the U.S. production have increased as a result of
labor force, declined during the same this economic growth and have, there-
period, fore, contributed to greater energy con-
sumption and fossil fuel-related carbon
dioxide emissions. Much of this eco-
nomic growth, however, has occurred in
sectors of the economy that are less
energy-intensive (e.g., computer tech-
nologies), which in turn has lowered the
energy intensity of the U.S. economy.
ENERGY PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION
The United States continues to be
the world's largest energy producer and
consumer. The nation's patterns of
energy use are determined largely by its
economic and population growth, large
land area, climate regimes, population
dispersion, average size of household,
other population characteristics, and
availability of indigenous resources.
Much of the infrastructure of U.S. cities,
highways, and industries was developed
^^H FIGORE 2-4 U.S. Employment by Industry: 1970-2000 ^^^1
Between 1970 and 2000, employment rose most rapidly in the construction, trade, financial, utilities
by far the largest in the United States, employing more than one-third of the population.
Q 1970
I I 2000 Millions of People
0 10 20 30 40
A,,cu,ture I 38
M,n,ng [~
Construction ^^H^_
r^^^™9
Manufacturing ^^^^^^^^^^^ ^
Transportation,
Communications, and ^^^^^^^_
Other Public Utilities P
TraHo ^^^^^^^^«
Financial I •
•^H*
, and services sectors. The service sector is
Sprwinps ^^
Public 4
Administration 1 H®
Note: All numbers are rounded to the nearest integer.
Sources: U.S. DOC/Census J999 and U.S. DOI/BLS 2000.
Percent of Employment
1970 2000
4 2
1 <0.5
6 7
26 15
7 7
in 01
13 £.\
5 7
26 37
6 4
-------
National Circumstances i 15
in response to abundant and relatively
inexpensive energy resources. Figure 2-5
provides a comprehensive overview of
the energy flows through the U.S. econ-
omy in 2000.
Different regions of the country rely
on different mixes of energy resources
(reflecting their diverse resource endow-
ments) to generate power and meet
other energy needs. For example, the
Pacific Northwest and Tennessee Valley
have abundant hydropower resources,
while the Midwest relies heavily on coal
for power generation and industrial
energy needs.
Resources
The vast fossil fuel resources of the
United States have contributed to low
prices and specialization in relatively
energy-intensive activities. Coal, which
has the highest emissions of greenhouse
gases per unit of energy, is particularly
abundant, with current domestic recov-
erable reserves estimated at nearly 460
billion metric tons (about 503 billion
short tons)—enough to last for over 460
years at current recovery rates. Recent
gains in mining productivity, coupled
with increased use of less-expensive
western coal made possible by railroad
deregulation, have led to a continual
decline in coal prices over the past two
decades. As a result, the low cost of coal
on a Btu basis has made it the preferred
fuel for power generation, supplying
over half of the energy consumed to
generate electricity.
Proved domestic reserves of oil
(nearly 4 trillion liters or over 20 billion
barrels at the start of 2000) have been on
a downward trend ever since the addi-
tion of reserves under Alaska's North
Slope in 1970. Restrictions on explo-
ration in many promising but ecologi-
cally sensitive areas have constrained
additions to reserves. Reserves of natural
gas were nearly 5 trillion cubic meters
(nearly 170 trillion cubic feet) at the start
of 2000. The estimated natural gas
resources of nearly 37 trillion cubic
meters (nearly 1,300 trillion cubic feet)
are expected to last for more than 65
years at current rates of production. U.S.
energy resources also include over 120
million kg (about 270 million pounds) of
uranium oxide, recoverable at about $65
per kilogram ($30 per pound) or less (in
2000 current dollars). Hydroelectric
resources are abundant in certain areas of
the country, where they have already
largely been exploited.
FIGURE 2-5 Energy Flow Through the U.S. Economy: 2000 (Quadrillion Btus)
The U.S. energy system is the largest in the world and is composed of multiple energy sources and end users. Most of the energy is produced
and consumed domestically, although imports constitute a significant portion, and a small fraction of energy is exported.
Coal
Commercial and
Industrial Use
51
Adjustments 2
Note: Shares may not sum to totals due to rounding.
Source: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000a.
-------
16 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
In May 2001, the Bush Administration published the National Energy Policy (NEP). This
long-term, comprehensive strategy was primarily designed to assist the private sector,
states, and local governments in promoting "dependable, affordable, and environmentally
sound production and distribution of energy for the future"(NEPD Group 2001). The NEP
seeks to promote new, environmentally friendly technologies to increase energy supplies
and to encourage cleaner, more efficient energy use. It also seeks to raise the living stan-
dards of Americans by fully integrating national energy, environmental, and economic poli-
cies. The following goals are the NEP's guiding principles.
Modernize Conservation
This NEP goal seeks to increase energy efficiency by applying new technology, which is
expected to raise productivity, reduce waste, and trim costs. Some of the recommenda-
tions include: increased funding for renewable energy and energy efficiency research and
development programs; income tax credits for the purchase of hybrid and fuel cell vehi-
cles; extension of the ENERGY STAR® efficiency program; and tax incentives and streamlined
permitting to promote clean combined heat and power (CHP) technology.
Modernize Energy Infrastructure
This NEP goal seeks to modernize and expand the national energy infrastructure such that
energy supplies can be safely, reliably, and affordably transported to homes and busi-
nesses. Some of the recommendations include: improving pipeline safety and expediting
pipeline permitting; expanding research and development on transmission reliability and
superconductivity; and enacting comprehensive electricity legislation that promotes com-
petition, encourages new generation, protects consumers, enhances reliability, and pro-
motes renewable energy.
Increase Energy Supplies
This NEP goal seeks to increase and diversify the nation's traditional and alternative fuel
sources so as to provide 'families and businesses with reliable and affordable energy, to
enhance national security, and to improve the environment."Some of the recommenda-
tions include: environmentally regulated exploration and production of oil using leading-
edge technology in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR); regulated increase in oil
and natural gas development on other federal lands; fiscal incentives for selected renew-
able power generation technologies; and streamlining the relicensing of hydropower and
nuclearfacilities.
Accelerate Protection and Improvement of the Environment
This NEP goal seeks to integrate long-term national energy policy with national environ-
mental goals. Some of the recommendations include multi-pollutant legislation to establish
a flexible, market-based program to significantly reduce and cap emissions of sulfur diox-
ide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury from electric power generators; land conservation
efforts; and new guidelines to reduce truck-idling emissions at truck stops.
Increase Energy Security
This NEP goal seeks to lessen the impact of energy price volatility and supply uncertainty
on the American people. Some of the recommendations include increasing funding forthe
Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program; preparing the Federal Emergency
Management Administration for managing energy-related emergencies; and streamlining
and expediting permitting procedures to expand and accelerate cross-border energy
investment, oil and gas pipelines, and electricity grid connections with Mexico and
Canada.
Production
Coal, natural gas, and crude oil con-
stitute the bulk of U.S. domestic energy
production. In 1960, these fossil fuels
accounted for nearly 95 percent of pro-
duction. By 2000 their contribution had
fallen to about 80 percent, with the
nuclear electric power displacing some
of the fossil fuel production (Figure 2-6).
Further displacement will most likely be
limited, however, due to uncertainties
related to deregulation of the electric
industry, difficulty in siting new nuclear
facilities, and management of commer-
cial spent fuel. Renewable resources con-
tribute a small but growing share.
Crude Oil
Before 1970, the United States
imported only a small amount of energy,
primarily in the form of petroleum.
Beginning in the early 1970s, however,
lower acquisition costs for imported
crude oil and rising costs of domestic
production put domestic U.S. oil pro-
ducers at a comparative disadvantage,
leading to a divergence in trends of
energy production and consumption. In
2000, the United States produced over
70 quadrillion Btus of energy and
exported 4 quadrillion Btus, over 35
percent of which was coal. Consumption
totaled nearly 100 quadrillion Btus,
requiring imports of nearly 30 quadril-
lion Btus. Domestic crude oil production
is projected to remain relatively stable
through 2003 as a result of a favorable
price environment and increased success
of offshore drilling. A decline in produc-
tion is projected from 2004 through
2010, followed by another period of
projected stable production levels
through 2020 as a result of rising prices
and continuing improvements in tech-
nology. In 2020, the projected domestic
production level of slightly over 5 mil-
lion barrels per day would be almost one
million barrels per day less than the 1999
level. In 2000, net imports of petroleum
accounted for over 60 percent of domes-
tic petroleum consumption. Continued
dependence on petroleum imports is
projected, reaching about 65 percent in
2020.
-------
National Circumstances i 17
FIGURE 2-6 U.S. Domestic Energy
Production: 1970-2000
Coal is the largest source of domestic energy,
followed by natural gas and oil. Since 1970,
the production of coal, nuclear, and renew-
ables has risen to offset the decline in oil and
natural gas production.
Notes: Fuel share estimates correspond to
2000 data. Shares may not sum to 100
percent due to rounding
Source: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000a.
Coal
Coal is the largest source of domesti-
cally produced energy. As the only fossil
fuel for which domestic production
exceeds consumption, coal assumed a
particularly important role in the wake
of the oil shocks in the 1970s. Between
1991 and 2000, U.S coal production
increased by about 8 percent. However,
more recently (between 1998 and 2000),
coal production has declined by nearly 4
percent from slightly over one billion
metric tons in 1998. This decline was
primarily attributed to a large drop in
coal exports and a smaller than usual
growth in coal consumption for power
generation.
From 1996 to 2000, U.S. coal
exports have declined by about 35
percent. In particular, they declined
sharply between 1998 and 2000, from
over 70 million metric tons (over 77
million short tons) to nearly 55 million
metric tons (nearly 61 million short
tons). U.S. coal exports declined in
almost every major world region. The
decline in coal exports to Canada,
Europe, and Asia was primarily attrib-
uted to competition from lower-priced
coal from Australia, South Africa,
Columbia, and Venezuela. Coal exports
are projected to remain relatively sta-
ble, settling at slightly more than 50
million metric tons by 2020.
Natural Gas
Regulatory and legislative changes in
the mid-1980s led to market pricing of
natural gas. These changes heightened
demand and boosted natural gas produc-
tion, reversing the decline it had experi-
enced in the 1970s and early 1980s. This
increased production is projected to
continue and even accelerate in the early
decades of the 21st century. Nonethe-
less, growth in consumption is expected
to outstrip that of production, leading
to an increase in net imports, from
the 1999 level of more than 85 billion
cubic meters (3 trillion cubic feet) to
a projected level of nearly 170
billion cubic meters (6 trillion cubic feet)
in 2020.
Renewable Energy
Renewable sources currently consti-
tute about 9 percent of U.S. energy
production, and hydropower con-
tributes 4 percent. Projected growth in
renewable electricity generation is
expected from biomass (currently at
nearly 5 percent) and from solar, wind,
and geothermal energy (currently at
less than 1 percent). The largest
increase in renewable electricity gener-
ation is projected for biomass, from
more than 35 billion kilowatt hours in
1999 to over 65 billion in 2020.
Electricity Market Restructuring
The U.S. electric power generation
industry is evolving from a regulated to
a competitive industry. In many juris-
dictions, wholesale markets have
already become competitive, while
retail markets have been slow to follow.
Where power generation was once
dominated by vertically integrated
investor-owned utilities (lOUs) that
owned most of the generation capacity,
transmission, and distribution facilities,
the electric power industry now has
many new companies that generate and
trade electricity. Although vertically
integrated lOUs still produce most of
the country's electrical power today,
this situation is rapidly changing.
Competition in wholesale power
sales received a boost from the Energy
Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), which
expanded the Federal Energy Regula-
tory Commission's (FERC's) authority
to order vertically integrated lOUs to
allow nonutility power producers
access to the transmission grid to sell
power. In 1996, the FERC issued its
Orders 888 and 889, which established
a regime for nondiscriminatory access
by all wholesale buyers and sellers to
transmission facilities. More recently, in
December 1999, FERC issued Order
2000, calling for the creation of
regional transmission organizations
(RTOs)—independent entities that will
control and operate the transmission
grid free of any discriminatory prac-
tices. Electric utilities were required to
submit proposals to form RTOs by
January 2001.
In addition to wholesale competi-
tion, for the first time in the history of
the industry, retail customers in some
states have been given a choice of elec-
tricity suppliers. As of July 1, 2000, 24
states and the District of Columbia had
passed laws or regulatory orders to
implement retail competition, and more
are expected to follow. The introduc-
tion of wholesale and retail competition
to the electric power industry has pro-
duced and will continue to produce sig-
nificant changes in the industry.
In 2000, coal-fired power plants
generated more than 50 percent of elec-
tricity produced in the United States,
followed by nuclear power (nearly 20
percent), natural gas (a little over 15
percent), conventional hydropower
(nearly 10 percent), petroleum (3 per-
cent), and other fuels and renewables (2
percent). Over the past few years, and in
near-term projections, natural gas has
been the fuel of choice for new electricity-
generating capacity. The restructuring
of the electric power industry may
accelerate this trend, due to the fact that
natural gas generation is less capital-
-------
18 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Peveral titles of the U.S. Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1992 continue to be
uextremely important to the overall U.S. strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Important provisions of this Act were reauthorized in the Energy Conservation
Reauthorization Act of 1998. Relevant titles of the original Act are summarized below.
Title I—Energy Efficiency
This title establishes energy efficiency standards, promotes electric utility energy manage-
ment programs and dissemination of energy-saving information, and provides incentives to
state and local authorities to promote energy efficiency.
Titles III, IV, V, and VI—Alternative Fuels and Vehicles
These titles provide monetary incentives, establish federal requirements, and support the
research, design, and development of fuels and vehicles that can reduce oil use and, in
some cases, carbon emissions as well.
Titles XII, XIX, XXI, and XXII—Renewable Energy, Revenue Provisions, Energy and
Environment, and Energy and Economic Growth
These titles promote increased research, development, production, and use of renewable
energy sources and more energy-efficient technologies.
Title XVI—Global Climate Change
This title provides for the collection, analysis, and reporting of information pertaining to
global climate change, including a voluntary reporting program to recognize electric utility
and industry efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Title XXIV—Hydroelectric Facilities
This title facilitates efforts to increase the efficiency and electric power production of exist-
ing federal and nonfederal hydroelectric facilities.
Title XXVIII—Nuclear Plant Licensing
This title streamlines licensing for nuclear plants.
intensive than other technologies, and
the cost of capital to the industry is
expected to increase.
Consumption
On the consumption side, rapid eco-
nomic and population growth, com-
bined with the increasing energy
demands of the transportation and
buildings sectors, resulted in an 80 per-
cent increase in energy demand from
1960 to 1979. Most of the increased
demand was met by oil imports and by
increased consumption of coal and nat-
ural gas. Total energy demand damp-
ened during and after the international
oil price shocks in 1973—74 and
1979—80, and overall energy consump-
tion actually fell through the early
1980s. Energy consumption resumed its
upward trend in the latter half of the
1980s, in response to declining oil and
gas prices and renewed economic
growth.
Another lingering effect of the oil
price shocks was a shift in consumption
away from oil. Power generation shifted
toward natural gas, coal, and nuclear
power, and space heating became more
dependent on natural gas and electric-
ity. Most of the shift away from oil to
natural gas, however, occurred after the
second oil price shock.
From 1949 to 2000, while the U.S.
population expanded by nearly 90 per-
cent, the amount of electricity sold by
utilities grew by over 1,200 percent.
Average per capita consumption of elec-
tricity in 2000 was seven times as high
as in 1949. The growth in the economy,
population, and distances traveled has
contributed to increased U.S energy
consumption. However, by 2000,
energy use per dollar of GDP (or
energy intensity) had decreased by
nearly 45 percent from its peak in
1970. Most of these energy intensity
improvements are due to an increase in
the less energy-intensive industries and
a decrease in the more energy-intensive
industries. The household and the
transportation sectors also experienced
significant gains in efficiency. Today
U.S. energy intensity is just slightly
above OECD's average energy intensity
(at 0.43 kg of oil equivalent per dollar
of GDP, versus 0.41 kg for the OECD).
SECTORAL ACTIVITIES
In 2000, end users consumed about
75 quadrillion Btus (quads) of energy
directly, including over 10 quads of elec-
tricity. In addition, about 25 quads of
energy were used in the generation,
transmission, and distribution of electric-
ity. Industry and transportation con-
sumed three-quarters of this direct
energy, while the residential and com-
mercial sectors used one-quarter.
However, because most electricity is
delivered to residential and commercial
users, total primary energy consumption
of nearly 100 quads is distributed fairly
evenly among final users (Figure 2-7).
The remainder of this section dis-
cusses energy use by and emissions
from industry, residential and commer-
cial buildings, transportation, and the
U.S. government, as well as waste.
Agricultural and forest practices are
addressed elsewhere in this chapter.
Industry
Comprised of manufacturing, con-
struction, agriculture, and mining, the
industrial sector accounted for more
than 35 percent of total U.S. energy use
in 2000 and slightly over 30 percent of
total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
Industry's energy consumption rose
steadily until the early 1970s, and then
dropped markedly, particularly in the
early 1980s, following the second oil
shock. Since the late 1980s, industrial
energy consumption has resumed a grad-
ual upward trend.
Similarly, from 1978 to 1999, indus-
trial energy intensity (energy consumed
by the individual sector per unit of
-------
National Circumstances i 19
Figure 2-7 Energy Consumption by
Sector: 1970-2000
Energy consumption is divided fairly evenly
among the three sectors, with industrial
being the largest and the buildings sector
close behind. The rate of growth in energy
consumption since 1970 has been highest in
the buildings and transportation sectors.
Notes: Sectoral share estimates correspond
to 2000 data. Shares may not sum to
100 percent due to rounding.
Source: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000a.
industrial output) fell by about 25 per-
cent. Approximately two-thirds of this
decline is attributable to structural shifts,
such as the changing array of products
that industry produced during the
period, while roughly one-third is attrib-
utable to efficiency improvements.
Over 80 percent of the energy con-
sumed in the industrial sector is used for
manufacturing (including feedstocks),
with the remainder of the energy con-
sumed by mining, construction, agricul-
ture, fisheries, and forestry. In 1998,
fuel consumption for manufacturing
amounted to nearly 25 quadrillion Btus,
an increase of nearly 10 percent since
1994. Of this, four subsectors accounted
for nearly 80 percent of the total manu-
facturing fuel consumption: chemicals
and allied products (25 percent), petro-
leum and coal products (over 30 per-
cent), paper and allied products (over 10
percent), and primary metal industries
(over 10 percent). Natural gas was the
most commonly consumed energy
source in manufacturing.
Natural gas and electricity together
comprised nearly 45 percent of all
energy sources (in terms of Btus). Over
the past two decades energy intensity in
the manufacturing sector has declined,
although the rate of decline has slowed
since energy prices fell in 1985. Of the
20 major energy-consuming industry
groups in the manufacturing sector, most
continued to reduce their energy inten-
sity between 1985 and 1994.
Residential and
Commercial Buildings
The number, size, and geographic
distribution of residential and commer-
cial buildings, as well as the market pen-
etration of heating and cooling
technologies and major appliances, all
combine to influence the energy con-
sumption and greenhouse gases associ-
ated with residential and commercial
activities.
Residential and commercial buildings
together account for roughly 35 percent
of the U.S. carbon emissions associated
with energy consumption. Commercial
buildings—which encompass all nonres-
idential, privately owned, and public
buildings—account for slightly over 15
percent of U.S. carbon emissions. Total
energy use in the buildings sector has
been increasing gradually, rising from
more than 20 quadrillion Btus in 1970 to
nearly 35 quadrillion Btus in 1998. The
sector's share of total energy consump-
tion relative to other end-use sectors
has remained roughly stable over this
period.
In 1997 the United States had more
than 100 million households, approxi-
mately half of which lived in detached,
single-family dwellings. Demographic
changes have led to a steep decline in
the average number of people per resi-
dence—from 3.3 in 1960 to 2.6 in
1990—and the sizes of houses have also
increased. Since then, that number has
remained fairly stable through 1996.
The average heated space per person
had increased to nearly 65 square meters
(nearly 680 square feet) in 1990, com-
pared to nearly 60 square meters (nearly
630 square feet) in 1980.
In addition, major energy-consuming
appliances and equipment came into
widespread use during this period. By
1990, essentially all U.S. households had
space and water heating, refrigeration
and cooking appliances, and color televi-
sion sets. In 1997, over 70 percent of the
households had some form of air condi-
tioning, over 75 percent had clothes
washers, over 70 percent had clothes
dryers, and about 50 percent had dish-
washers (Figure 2-8).
New products have continued to pen-
etrate the market. For example, in 1978,
only 8 percent of U.S. households had a
microwave oven,- by 1997, nearly 85 per-
cent had a microwave oven. Similarly,
household survey data on personal com-
puters were first collected in 1990, when
slightly over 15 percent of households
owned one or more PCs. By 1997 that
share had more than doubled to 35 per-
cent.
Despite this growth in appliances,
products, and per capita heating and
cooling space, large gains in the energy
efficiency of appliances and building
shells (e.g., through better insulation)
have resulted in a modest decline in res-
idential energy use per person and only
modest increases in total U.S. energy
demand in the residential sector. The
increased use of nontraditional electrical
appliances, such as computers and cord-
less (rechargeable) tools, is expected to
drive a gradual (one half of 1 percent per
year) rise in per-household residential
energy consumption between 1990 and
2015.
The type of fuel used to heat U.S.
homes has changed significantly over
time. More than one-third of all U.S.
housing units were warmed by coal in
1950, but by 1997 that share fell to less
than one-half of 1 percent. During the
same period, distillate fuel oil lost just
over half of its share of the home-heating
market, falling to 10 percent. Natural gas
and electricity gained as home-heating
sources. The share of natural gas rose
from about a quarter of all homes in 1950
to over half in 1997, while electricity's
share shot up from less than 1 percent in
1950 to nearly 30 percent in 1997.
In recent years, electricity and natural
gas have been the most common sources
-------
20 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
FIGORE2-0 Energy Characteristics of U.S. Households
In 1997, household energy consumption was 10.25 quadrillion Btus. The primary energy source was natural gas, followed by electricity and oil.
The graphic below depicts the percentage of households with a variety of energy-consuming appliances.
35% have personal computers
72% have air conditioning
47% have central air
25% have window units
100% have at least one refrigerator
15% have two or more
33% have separate freezers
100% have water heaters
52% natural gas
40% electricity
99% have stoves
83% have microwave ovens
50% have dishwashers
19% use dishwashers daily
77% have clothes washer
99% have a television
99% have central heating | j 71% have clothes dryer
51% natural gas
29% electricity
10% fuel oil
5% liquefied gas
Source: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000s.
of energy used by commercial buildings
as well. Commercial buildings house the
rapidly growing financial and services
sectors. Accordingly, their number and
their total square footage have increased
steadily. Over 85 percent of all commer-
cial buildings are heated, and more than
75 percent are cooled. In addition, the
past decade has seen a major increase in
the use of computers and other energy-
consuming office equipment, such as
high-resolution printers, copiers, and
scanners.
Rapid growth in the financial and
services sectors has substantially
increased the energy services required
by commercial buildings. However, as in
the residential sector, substantial effi-
ciency gains have reduced the net
increases in energy demand and carbon
emissions. The widespread introduction
of efficient lighting and more efficient
office equipment, such as ENERGY STAR®
labeled products, should help to con-
tinue this trend. The entry into the mar-
ket of energy service companies, which
contract with firms or government agen-
cies to improve building energy effi-
ciency and are paid out of the stream of
energy savings, has aided the trend
toward greater energy efficiency in the
commercial buildings sector.
Transportation
Reflecting the nation's low popula-
tion density, the U.S. transportation
sector has evolved into a multimodal
system that includes waterborne, high-
way, mass transit, air, rail, and pipeline
transport, capable of moving large vol-
umes of people and freight long dis-
tances. Automobiles and light trucks
dominate the passenger transportation
system. In 1997, the highway share of
passenger miles traveled was nearly 90
percent, while air travel accounted for
10 percent. In contrast, transit and rail
travel's combined share was only 1 per-
cent (Figure 2-9).
-------
National Circumstances i 21
^^H FIGURE 2-9
U.S. Transportation: Characteristics and Trends ^^H
The U.S. transportation system relies heavily on private vehicles. Although fuel efficiency in automobiles has been rising steadily, there has also
been a trend toward larger vehicles, such as light trucks and sport utility vehicles. Coupled with an increase in vehicle miles traveled, overall
energy consumption has been increasing. Air travel has also experienced impressive growth, and the performance of freight modes has not off-
set these increases in consumption.
Energy Use
by Transportation Mode: 1998
Passenger Miles Traveled: 1998
In 1998 the transportation sector consumed nearly 26 quadrillion Btus. Of the nearly 5 trillion passenger miles traveled in 1998, passenger
Highway vehicles accounted for about 80 percent of this consumption. cars accounted for the single largest mode of transportation.
Pipeline 3% Rai|2%
Highway Transport
Trucks 4%
Water 5% \ /,- Transit 1%
Air8%\^ \ m J^^.
Heavy-duty ~~ ^ ^^^^ /
trucks & buses j^| ^^^^£^1 1
18%
^^^^
^^r Cars & light-duty
vehicles 63%
Other2-axle, Buses3%^^v Other Transport
4-tire vehicles 30% ^^ \\, ^- Transit 1%»
M-t-r-r-l-- '""' Air 10%
1 1
Dassenger Cars 52% ^t
includes motor and trolley buses; light, heavy, and commuter rail; and ferry boats.
Passenger Car Use Index: 1980 = 1
Gasoline Prices and Fuel Use Index: 1978 = 1
Generally, although fuel efficiency has been improving as a result of As real gasoline prices declined in the early 1990s, fuel consumption
CAFE standards, fuel consumption continues to rise due to increased on our nation's highways increased.
U.S. vehicle
1 .5
1.0
0.5
n n
miles traveled.
Fuel Efficiency
(miles per gallon|^^^^^^^^~
^^^^^ Vehicle Miles Traveled
.^^^^^^ (millions of miles)
Fuel Consumption '
(millions of gallons)
u.u —
Air Transport (Billions of Miles)
i
i
^^L basonne rnce
1'5 / \fdollarspergallon)
1 ^^^
/ ^^k
/ \ •^••^"^
10 C^ _^^-y^fc^^*^^ /
Fuel Consumption \^
(millions of barrels per day)
0.5
nn
Efficiency of Freight Modes
Airtransport has been rising over the past decade: revenue aircraft The fuel efficiency of U.S. freighttransportation is steadily improving.
miles and available seat miles have been increasing at average Most
notably, the energy intensity of railroads decreased by nearly
annual rates of nearly 4 and 3 percent, respectively. 45 percent during 1970-98.
1,000
800
1
^
15 600
1
3 400
1
"^
200
\°
^^^ ~~
Available Seat Miles ^^^^^^^^
^^ -^-"~ —
•^
^--
Revenue Aircraft Miles
a & & &
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding.
10
Yea
8 3-
§
. 1 197<
6 5
^ 1981
j>
4 * 199(
3:
SJf 199-
199f
n 1QQ"
> iyy
199!
Sources: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000s, U.S. DOT/BTS2000a and 2000b, U.S. DOT/FAA 1998.
r Trucks Class 1 Freight Domestic Waterborne
(mpg) Railroads Commerce
(Btus per Ton Mile) (Ton Miles per Barrel)
5.5 645 4,820
5.4 590 3,680
6.0 420 3,370
6.2 370 3,580
6.2 365 3,580
R A ^70 ^ 770
0.4 o/U o,/ /U
6.1 360 3,660
-------
22 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Because of the dominance of motor
vehicles in the U.S. transportation sys-
tem, motor vehicle ownership rates,
use, and efficiency drive energy con-
sumption and greenhouse gas emissions
in the transportation sector. Between
1960 and 1998, the number of cars and
trucks registered in the United States
almost tripled, from nearly 75 million to
more than 210 million. Overall, the
transportation sector consumed slightly
over 25 quadrillion Btus in 1998,
accounting for approximately one-third
of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Ris-
ing incomes, population growth, and
settlement patterns were the primary
factors in this trend.
Both the number of vehicles on the
road and the average distance they are
driven have increased. In 1999, on aver-
age, passenger cars were driven over
19,000 kilometers (nearly 12,000 miles)
per year, compared to approximately
16,000 kilometers (about 10,000 miles)
in 1970. The distance traveled per car
has increased steadily over the last two
decades, interrupted only by the oil
shocks in 1974 and 1979. Total U.S.
vehicle miles traveled have increased by
nearly 140 percent since 1970.
These increases have been signifi-
cantly offset by enhanced efficiency.
This can be attributed to a combination
of factors, including the implementation
of Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards for new cars, and
improved average fuel consumption per
kilometer—from a low of 18 liters per
100 kilometers (slightly over 13 miles
per gallon) for the on-road passenger car
fleet in 1973, to 11 liters per 100 kilo-
meters (slightly over 21 miles per gallon)
in 1999. Between 1998 and 1999, the
fuel efficiency of passenger cars declined
by about 1 percent, halting the growth
trend in improvement of energy effi-
ciency.
The fuel economy of light trucks and
sport utility vehicles has also improved,
although the increased share of light
trucks in the total light-duty-vehicle
fleet has diminished these overall gains.
Thus, as in other sectors, efficiency
improvements moderated the increase in
motor fuel consumption (including air,
water, pipeline, and rail) in the trans-
portation sector from nearly 8 million
barrels per day in 1970 to about 12 mil-
lion barrels per day in 1999.
The causes for the rapid rise in vehi-
cle miles traveled are numerous,
although their relative importance is
unclear. In 1997, there was slightly
over one vehicle per licensed driver—
an increase of about 25 percent over
1970. This increase in ownership trans-
lates into a decrease in the use of car-
pools and public transportation, and an
accompanying increase in personal
vehicle use. Increased vehicle owner-
ship and use are related to a host of fac-
tors, including changing patterns of
land use, such as location of work and
shopping centers,- the changing com-
position of the work force, such as the
growing number of women in the work
force,- and the reduced marginal costs
of driving.
U.S. freight transportation, meas-
ured in ton-miles, grew at an average of
2 percent annually from 1970 to 1997,
when it reached nearly three trillion
ton-miles. In 1997, the predominant
mode of freight transportation was
trucks, followed closely by rail, then
waterways, pipelines, and air.
* Heavy trucks account for most of the
freight sector's energy use. From
1970 to 1997, their energy consump-
tion more than doubled. While their
fuel efficiency increased slightly,
U.S. ton-miles of freight transported
on intercity trucks nearly tripled
between 1970 and 1997.
* Between 1970 and 1997, the number
of railroad cars in use declined.
However, they carried more freight
for greater distances, resulting in
nearly a 1 percent reduction in total
fuel consumed for rail freight service
since 1970, and nearly a 50 percent
improvement in energy consumed
(in terms of Btus) per freight
ton-mile.
» Ton-miles shipped by air increased
rapidly—by over 6 percent a year
from 1970 to 1997.
» Water-transport and oil-pipeline
shipments grew steadily over that
same period.
Government
The U.S. government is the nation's
single largest energy consumer. It uses
energy in government buildings and
operations widely dispersed across the
entire nation and every climate zone,
providing services to the U.S. popula-
tion. Based on reports submitted to the
Department of Energy by 28 federal
agencies, the U.S. government con-
sumed slightly over one quad of
energy during fiscal year 1999 (about 1
percent of U.S. energy consumption),
when measured in terms of energy
actually delivered to the point of use.
This total net energy consumption
represented a 30 percent decrease from
1990. Based on these figures, the fed-
eral government was responsible for
nearly 25 million metric tons of carbon
emissions in 1999—a reduction of
nearly 9 million metric tons, or over 25
percent, from 1990. The largest contri-
bution to this reduction was from vehi-
cle and equipment end-uses, which
reduced their carbon emissions by
nearly 35 percent.
The Department of Defense is the
federal government's largest energy
consumer, accounting for just over 80
percent of total federal energy use.
The Postal Service is the second
largest consumer of federal energy, and
accounted for nearly 4 percent of total
federal energy use. Overall in 1999,
energy consumption by vehicles and
equipment accounted for 60 percent of
the total, buildings for 34 percent, and
energy-intensive operations for 7 per-
cent. In terms of energy use by fuel
type, jet fuel accounted for nearly 55
percent,- fuel oil, nearly 20 percent,-
electricity, more than 10 percent,- nat-
ural gas, 10 percent,- and other fuels,
6 percent.
Waste
In 1999, the United States generated
approximately 230 million tons of
municipal solid waste (MSW). Paper
and paperboard products made up the
largest component of MSW generated
by weight (nearly 40 percent), and yard
trimmings comprised the second largest
material component (more than 10
-------
National Circumstances i 23
Initially in response to the energy crises of the 1970s, and later because it just made good
financial sense, federal agencies have been steadily pursuing energy and cost savings in
their buildings and operations. Under the Federal Energy Management Program, federal
agencies have invested several billion dollars in energy efficiency over the past 20 years
and have substantially reduced their energy consumption. In federal buildings, the primary
focus of the program, 1999 energy consumption was down nearly 30 percent from 1985 lev-
els and nearly 25 percent from 1990 levels. Within the same sector, carbon emissions have
decreased by nearly 20 percent since 1990. This has been partly due to a 10 percent reduc-
tion in gross square footage since 1990 and about an 8 percent reduction in primary energy
intensity (in terms of Btus per gross square footage).
The Energy Policy Act of 1992 and Executive Order 13123 further challenge federal energy
managers to reduce energy use in federal buildings by 35 percent by 2010 from 1985 levels.
With declining federal resources available, the Federal Energy Management Program is
emphasizing the use of private-sector investment through energy-saving performance con-
tracting and utility financing of energy efficiency to meet these goals. The combination of
federal funding and the anticipated private-sector funding of about $4 billion through 2005
should make these goals attainable. In addition, agencies are making cost-effective invest-
ments in renewable-energy and water-conservation projects, and further savings are being
pursued through an energy-efficient procurement initiative.
percent). Glass, metals, plastics, wood,
and food each constituted between 5
and over 10 percent of the total MSW
generated. Rubber, leather, and textiles
combined made up about 7 percent of
the MSW, while other miscellaneous
wastes made up approximately 2 per-
cent of the MSW generated in 1999.
Waste management practices in-
clude source reduction, recycling, and
disposal (including waste combustion
and landfilling). Management patterns
changed dramatically in the late 1990s
in response to changes in economic and
regulatory conditions. The most signif-
icant change from a greenhouse gas
perspective was the increase in the
national average recycling rate, which
rose from over 15 percent in 1990 to
nearly 30 percent in 1999 (nearly 65
million tons). Of the remaining MSW
generated, about 15 percent is com-
busted and nearly 60 percent is dis-
posed of at landfills. The number of
operating MSW landfills has decreased
substantially over the last decade, from
about 8,000 in 1988 to under 2,000 in
1999, while the average landfill size has
increased.
Overall, waste management and
treatment activities accounted for about
260 teragrams of carbon dioxide equiv-
alent (Tg CO, Eq.), or nearly 4 percent
of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
in 1999. Of this, landfill emissions were
over 210 Tg CO2 Eq. Waste combus-
tion, human sewage, and wastewater
treatment constituted the rest of the
emissions.
AGRICULTURE
Despite their decreased acreage,
U.S. grazing lands are sustaining more
animals, and agricultural lands are feed-
ing more people. Enlightened land
management policies and improved
technologies are major contributors to
their enhanced productivity.
Grazing Land
U.S. grazing lands—both grassland
pasture and range and cropland used for
pasture—are environmentally impor-
tant. They include major recreational
and scenic areas, serve as a principal
source of wildlife habitat, and comprise
a large area of the nation's watersheds.
These ecosystems, like forest ecosys-
tems, are vulnerable to rapid changes in
climate, particularly shifts in tempera-
ture and moisture regimes. However,
range ecosystems tend to be more
resilient than forest ecosystems because
of their ability to survive long-term
droughts.
Grassland pasture and range ecosys-
tems can include a variety of different
flora and fauna communities, usually
denoted by the dominant vegetation.
They are generally managed by varying
grazing pressure, by using fire to shift
species abundance, and by occasionally
disturbing the soil surface to improve
water infiltration.
In contrast, cropland used for pasture
is a grazing ecosystem that relies on
more intensive management inputs, such
as fertilizer, chemical pest management,
and introduced or domesticated species.
U.S. cropland used for pasture includes
native grasslands, savannas, alpine mead-
ows, tundra, many wetlands, some
deserts, and areas seeded by introduced
and genetically improved species.
Grassland pasture and range
accounted for nearly 240 million
hectares (580 million acres), or over
25 percent of major land uses in 1997
(see Figure 2-2). However, the area of
grassland pasture and range has
declined since 1945, when it was nearly
270 million hectares (nearly 660 million
acres). One reason for this decline is
that farmers have improved the produc-
tivity of grazing lands. A second reason
is that some of these land areas were
also converted to cropland, rural resi-
dential, suburban, and urban land uses,
as demand for grazing lands declined in
recent years due to the decrease in the
number of domestic animals—particu-
larly sheep and draft animals—raised on
grazing lands.
Agricultural Land
The United States enjoys a natural
abundance of productive agricultural
lands and a favorable climate for pro-
ducing food crops, feed grains, and
other agricultural commodities, such as
oil seed crops. The area of the U.S.
cropland used for crop production
declined by 10 percent during the
16-year period between 1981 and 1997,
from nearly 160 million hectares (nearly
390 million acres) to about 140 million
hectares (nearly 350 million acres).
During this same period, conservation
programs for the most environmentally
sensitive and highly erodible lands have
removed nearly 15 million hectares
-------
24 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
(35 million acres) from cropping sys-
tems.
Although the United States harvests
about the same area as it did in 1910, it
feeds a population that has grown two
and one-half times since then, and its
food exports have also expanded con-
siderably. Agricultural productivity
increases are due primarily to techno-
logical change in the food and agricul-
tural sectors. In the absence of these
improvements in productivity, substan-
tially more land would need to be culti-
vated to achieve today's level of
productivity.
The increase in no-till, low-till, and
other erosion control practices reduced
erosion on cropland and grazing land by
40 percent between 1982 and 1997.
These practices also have helped to con-
serve carbon associated with those soils,
protect soil productivity, and reduce
other environmental impacts, such as
pesticide and nutrient loadings in water
bodies.
Although the number of cattle and
sheep has been declining, greenhouse
gas emissions from agricultural activities
have been steadily rising, largely due to
growth in emissions of nitrous oxides
from agricultural soil management and
methane emissions from manure man-
agement.
Forests
U.S. forests vary from the complex
juniper forests of the arid interior West
to the highly productive forests of the
Pacific Coast and the Southeast. In 1997,
forests covered about one-third (about
300 million hectares, or nearly 750 mil-
lion acres) of the total U.S. land area.
This includes both the forest-use lands
and a portion of the special-use lands
listed in Table 2-1 and Figure 2-2.
Excluding Alaska, U.S. forestland
covers about 250 million hectares (620
million acres). Of this, nearly 200 mil-
lion hectares are timberland, most of
which is privately owned. However,
much of the forested land is dedicated to
special uses (i.e., parks, wilderness areas,
and wildlife areas), which prohibits using
the land for such activities as timber pro-
duction. These areas increased from
In September 2001, the U.S. Department of Agriculture presented its long-term view of the
nation's agriculture and food system and a framework to foster strategic thinking and
guiding principles for agricultural policies, including policies for environmental conserva-
tion. These Principles for Conservation were identified as key policy directives.
Sustain past environmental gains. Improvements in losses from soil erosion and wetlands
benefit farmers and all Americans. These and other gains resulting from existing conserva-
tion programs should be maintained.
Accommodate new and emerging environmental concerns. Conservation policy should
adapt to emerging environmental and community needs and incorporate the latest science.
These new and emerging issues include the need for sources of renewable energy and the
potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Design and adopt a portfolio approach to conservation policies. Targeted technical assis-
tance, incentives for improved practices on working farms and forest lands, compensation
for environmental achievements, and limited dedication of farmland and private forest lands
to environmental use will provide a coordinated and flexible portfolio approach to agri-envi-
ronmental goals.
Reaffirm market-oriented policies. Competition in the supply of environmental goods and
services and targeted incentives ensure the maximum environmental benefits for each pub-
lic dollar spent.
Ensure compatibility of conservation, farm, and trade policies. Producer compensation for
conservation practices and environmental achievements should be consistent with "green
box"criteria under World Trade Organization obligations.
Recognize the importance of collaboration. Nonfederal government agencies as well as
private for-profit and not-for-profit organizations are playing an ever-increasing role in the
delivery of technical assistance and in incentive programs for conservation.
Source: USDA 2001.
about 9 million hectares (over 20 million
acres) in 1945 to nearly 45 million
hectares (about 100 million acres) in
1997. As a result, land defined as "forest-
use land" declined consistently from the
1960s to 1997, while land defined as
"special uses" increased.
Management inputs over the past
several decades have been gradually
increasing the production of marketable
wood in U.S. forests. The United States
currently grows more wood than it har-
vests, with a growth-to-harvest ratio of
nearly 1.5. This ratio reflects substantial
new forest growth,- however, old-growth
forests have continued to decline over
the same period.
OTHER NATURAL RESOURCES
Climate change significantly affects
other U.S. natural resources, including
wetlands, wildlife, and water.
Wetlands
Wetland ecosystems are some of the
more biologically important and ecolog-
ically significant systems on the planet.
Because they represent a boundary con-
dition ("ecotone") between land and
aquatic ecosystems, wetlands have many
functions. They provide habitats for
many types of organisms, both plant and
animal,- serve as diverse ecological niches
that promote preservation of biodiver-
sity,- are the source of economic products
for food, clothing, and recreation,- trap
sediment, assimilate pollution, and
recharge ground water,- regulate water
flow to protect against storms and flood-
ing,- and anchor shorelines and prevent
erosion. The United States has a broad
variety of wetland types, ranging from
permafrost-underlain wetlands in Alaska
to tropical rainforests in Hawaii.
Wetland ecosystems are highly
dependent upon upland ecosystems.
-------
National Circumstances i 25
Therefore, they are vulnerable to changes
in the health of upland ecosystems as well
as to environmental change brought
about by shifts in climate regimes. Wet-
lands, including riparian zones along
waterways and areas of perennial wet soils
or standing water, are both sources of and
sinks for greenhouse gases.
Since the nation's settlement in the
18th century, the continental United
States has lost about 40-45 million
hectares (about 100-110 million acres)
of approximately 90 million hectares
(over 220 million acres) of its original
wetlands. Most wetland conversion in
the 19th century was originally for agri-
cultural purposes, although converted
land subsequently was often used for
urban development. A significant addi-
tional share of wetlands was lost as a
result of federal flood control and
drainage projects.
The pace of wetland loss has slowed
considerably in the past two decades.
For example, while net wetland losses
from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s
averaged 185,400 hectares (458,000
acres) a year, they fell to about 117,400
hectares (290,000 acres) a year from the
mid-1970s to mid-1980s. Between 1982
and 1992, the net average rate of wet-
land conversion further dropped to
about 32,000 hectares (80,000 acres) a
year. During 1992-97, net wetland
losses fell even further to roughly 13,000
hectares (32,600 acres) a year. Urban
development accounted for nearly half
of these losses, while agricultural con-
version accounted for about one-quarter.
The reduced rate of wetland loss
since the mid-1980s is attributable to a
number of factors. Both government
policies for protecting wetlands and low
crop prices have decreased conversions
of wetlands to agricultural uses. In addi-
tion, the majority of wetland restora-
tions have occurred on agricultural land.
Government programs, such as the Wet-
land Reserve Program, which provides
funds and technical assistance to restore
formerly drained wetlands, have aided
such gains. Thus, agricultural land man-
agement has most likely contributed to
overall gains in wetland areas, as losses
to agricultural conversion are greatly
reduced and previously drained areas are
restored. Future losses are likely to be
even smaller, because the United States
has implemented a "no net loss" policy
for wetlands.
Alaska's over 70 million hectares (175
million acres) of wetlands easily exceed
the 45—50 million hectares (over
110—125 million acres) of wetlands in
the continental United States. Many of
these areas are federally owned. Total
wetland losses in Alaska have been less
than 1 percent since the mid-1800s,
although in coastal areas, losses have
been higher.
Wildlife
During the past 20 years, the United
States has become more aware of the
reduction in the diversity of life at all lev-
els, both nationwide and worldwide. To
better understand and catalog both previ-
ous and future changes, the United States
is conducting a comprehensive, nation-
wide survey of its wildlife and biodiver-
sity, referred to as the National Biological
Survey.
Information on endangered species is
already available through other sources.
As of November 2000, over 960 species
were listed as endangered, of which about
590 are plants and 370 are animals. In
addition, over 140 plant and nearly 130
animal species were listed as threatened,
for a total of nearly 1,240 threatened or
endangered species. The United States
continues to work to conserve species
diversity through programs and laws like
the Endangered Species Act.
Water
The development of water resources
has been key to the nation's growth and
prosperity. Abundant and reliable water
systems have enabled urban and agricul-
tural centers to flourish in arid and semi-
arid regions of the country. For instance,
between 1959 and 1997, irrigated agricul-
tural land increased by nearly 70 percent,
from less than 15 million hectares (nearly
35 million acres) to over 20 million
hectares (55 million acres).
Currently, most of the nation's fresh-
water demands are met by diversions from
streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs and
by withdrawals from ground-water
aquifers. Even though total withdrawals of
surface water more than doubled from
1950 to 1980, withdrawals remained at
about 20 percent of the renewable water
supply in 1980. However, some areas of
the country still experience intermittent
water shortages during droughts.
There is increasing competition for
water in the arid western sections of the
country, not only to meet traditional
agricultural and hydropower needs, but
also for drinking water in growing
urban areas,- for American Indian water
rights,- and for industry, recreation, and
natural ecosystems. The flows of many
streams in the West are fully allocated
to current users, limiting opportunities
for expanded water use by major new
facilities. Several states have adopted a
market-based approach to water pricing
and allocation, thus offering the poten-
tial to alleviate projected shortfalls.
Also pertinent is the federal govern-
ment's insistence that certain minimum-
flow requirements be met to preserve
threatened and endangered species.
These forces have contributed to a
decline in per capita water use in the last
two decades. After continual increases in
the nation's total water withdrawals for
off-stream use from 1950 to 1980, with-
drawals declined from 1980 to 1995. The
1995 estimate of average withdrawals,
which is over 400 million gallons a day, is
2 percent less than the 1990 estimate and
nearly 10 percent less than the 1980 esti-
mate, which was the peak year of water
use. This decline in water withdrawals
occurred even though population
increased by over 15 percent from 1980
to 1995.
-------
Chapter 3
Greenhouse
Gas Inventory
Central to any study of climate change
is the development of an emissions
inventory that identifies and quanti-
fies a country's primary anthropogenic1
sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.
The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emis-
sions and Sinks: 1990-1999 (U.S. EPA
200Id) adheres to both (1) a compre-
hensive and detailed methodology for
estimating sources and sinks of anthro-
pogenic greenhouse gases, and (2) a
common and consistent mechanism
that enables signatory countries
to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) to compare the relative
contribution of different emission
sources and greenhouse gases to climate
change. Moreover, systematically and
consistently estimating national and
In this context, the term "anthropogenic" refers to
greenhouse gas emissions and removals that are a
direct result of human activities or are the result of nat-
ural processes that have been affected by human activ-
ities (IPCC/UNEP/OECD/1EA 1997).
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 27
international emissions is a prerequisite
for accounting for reductions and eval-
uating mitigation strategies.
In June 1992, the United States
signed, and later ratified in October, the
UNFCCC. The objective of the
UNFCCC is "to achieve ... stabilization
of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would pre-
vent dangerous anthropogenic interfer-
ence with the climate system."2 By
signing the Convention, Parties make
commitments "to develop, periodically
update, publish and make available...
national inventories of anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by
sinks of all greenhouse gases not con-
trolled by the Montreal Protocol, using
comparable methodologies "3 The
United States views the Inventory of U.S.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks as an
opportunity to fulfill this commitment.
This chapter summarizes information
on U.S. anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emission trends from 1990 through
1999. To ensure that the U.S. emissions
inventory is comparable to those of
other UNFCCC signatory countries, the
emission estimates were calculated using
methodologies consistent with those
recommended in the Revised 1996 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Invento-
ries (IPCC/UNEP/OECD/IEA 1997). For
most source categories, the IPCC default
methodologies were expanded, resulting
in a more comprehensive and detailed
estimate of emissions.
Naturally occurring greenhouse
gases include water vapor, carbon diox-
ide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). Several
classes of halogenated substances that
contain fluorine, chlorine, or bromine
are also greenhouse gases, but they are,
for the most part, solely a product of
industrial activities. Chlorofluorocar-
bons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocar-
bons (HCFCs) are halocarbons that
contain chlorine, while halocarbons
that contain bromine are referred to as
bromofluorocarbons (i.e., halons).
Because CFCs, HCFCs, and halons are
stratospheric ozone-depleting sub-
stances, they are covered under the Mon-
treal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the
Ozone Layer. The UNFCCC defers to
this earlier international treaty,- conse-
quently these gases are not included in
national greenhouse gas inventories.4
Some other fluorine-containing halo-
genated substances—hydrofluorocar-
bons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
and sulfur hexafluoride (SFg)—do not
deplete stratospheric ozone but are
potent greenhouse gases. These latter
substances are addressed by the
UNFCCC and are accounted for in
national greenhouse gas inventories.
There are also several gases that
do not have a direct global warming
effect but indirectly affect terrestrial
radiation absorption by influencing the
formation and destruction of tropos-
pheric and stratospheric ozone.
These gases include carbon monoxide
(CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and non-
methane volatile organic compounds
(NMVOCs).5 Aerosols, which are
extremely small particles or liquid
droplets, such as those produced by
sulfur dioxide (SO2) or elemental car-
bon emissions, can also affect the
absorptive characteristics of the atmos-
phere.
Although CO2, CH4, and N2O
occur naturally in the atmosphere,
their atmospheric concentrations have
been affected by human activities.
Since pre-industrial time (i.e., since
about 1750), concentrations of these
greenhouse gases have increased by 31,
151, and 17 percent, respectively
(IPCC 2001b). Because this build-up
has altered the chemical composition
of the Earth's atmosphere, it has
affected the global climate system.
Beginning in the 1950s, the use of
CFCs and other stratospheric ozone-
depleting substances (ODSs) increased
by nearly 10 percent per year until the
mid-1980s, when international concern
about ozone depletion led to the sign-
ing of the Montreal Protocol. Since then,
the production of ODSs is being
phased out. In recent years, use of ODS
substitutes, such as HFCs and PFCs, has
The global warming potential (GWP)-weighted emissions of all direct greenhouse gases
throughout this report are presented in terms of equivalent emissions of carbon dioxide
(C02), using units of teragrams of C02 equivalents (Tg C02 Eq.). Previous years' inventories
reported U.S. emissions in terms of carbon—versus C02-equivalent—emissions, using
units of millions of metric tons of carbon equivalents (MMTCE). This change of units for
reporting was implemented so thatthe U.S. inventory would be more consistent with inter-
national practices, which are to report emissions in units of C02 equivalents.
The following equation can be used to convert the emission estimates presented in this
report to those provided previously:
Tg C02 Eq. = MMTCE (44/12)
There are two elements to the conversion. The first element is simply nomenclature, since
one teragram is equal to one million metric tons:
Tg = 109 kg = 106 metric tons = 1 million metric tons
The second element is the conversion, by weight, from carbon to C02. The molecular
weight of carbon is 12, and the molecular weight of oxygen is 16. Therefore, the molecular
weight of C02 is 44 (i.e., 12+[16(2)], as compared to 12for carbon alone. Thus, carbon com-
prises 12/44ths of C02 by weight.
2 Article 1 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change published by the LINEP/WMO Information Unit on Climate Change. See http://www.unfccc.de.
3 Article 4 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change published by the UNEP/WMO Information Unit on Climate Change (also identified in Article 12). See
h ttp ://www. unf ccc. de.
4 Emission estimates of CFCs, HCFCs, halons, and other ozone-depleting substances are included in this chapter for informational purposes (see Table 3-12).
5 Also referred to in the U.S. Clean Air Act as "criteria pollutants."
-------
28 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
grown as they begin to be phased in as
replacements for CFCs and HCFCs.
RECENT TRENDS IN U.S.
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
In 1999, total U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions were 6,746 teragrams of CO2
equivalents (Tg CO2 Eq.),6 11.7 per-
cent above emissions in 1990. The
single-year increase in emissions from
1998 to 1999 was 0.9 percent (59.2 Tg
CO, Eq.), which was less than the 1.2
percent average annual rate of increase
for 1990 through 1999. The lower than
average increase in emissions, especially
given the robust economic growth in
1999, was primarily attributable to the
following factors: (1) warmer than nor-
FIGORE 3-1 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas: 1990-1999 (Tg co, Eq.)
In 1999, total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose to 6,746 teragrams of carbon dioxide
equivalents (Tg C02 Eq.), which was 11.7 percent above 1990 emissions.
Uj
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
MFCs, PFCs, &SF6
N20
CH4
6,038 5,987 6,108 6,211
6,598
6,678 6,687 6,746
Illlllllll
mal summer and winter conditions,
(2) significantly increased output from
existing nuclear power plants,
(3) reduced CH4 emissions from coal
mines, and (4) HFC-23 by-product
emissions from the chemical manufac-
ture of HCFC-22. Figures 3-1 through
3-3 illustrate the overall trends in total
U.S. emissions by gas, annual changes,
and absolute change since 1990. Table
3-1 provides a detailed summary of U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for
1990 through 1999.
Figure 3-4 illustrates the relative
contribution of the direct greenhouse
gases to total U.S. emissions in 1999.
The primary greenhouse gas emitted by
human activities was COr The largest
source of CO2, and of overall green-
house gas emissions in the United
States, was fossil fuel combustion. Emis-
sions of CH4 resulted primarily from
decomposition of wastes in landfills,
enteric fermentation associated with
domestic livestock, natural gas systems,
and coal mining. Most N2O emissions
Estimates are presented in units of teragrams of carbon
dioxide equivalents (Tg CCX Eq.), which weight each
gas by its global warming potential, or GWP, value
(see the following section).
FIGORE 3-2 Annual Change in U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Since 1990
The single-year increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 1998 to
1999 was 0.9 percent (59.2 Tg C02 Eq.), which was less than the 1.2
percent average annual rate of increase for 1990 through 1999.
FIGORE 3-3 Absolute Change in U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Since 1990
Greenhouse gas emissions increased a total of 707.9 Tg C02 Eq.
between 1990 and 1999, or 11.7 percent since 1990.
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
I
<5 1.5
5
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 29
TABLE 3-1 Recent Trends in U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (Tg CD, Eq.)
From 1990 through 1999, total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions increased by 11.7 percent. Specifically, C02 emissions increased by 13.1 percent.
CH4 emissions decreased by 3. 9 percent, N20 emissions increased by 9.0 percent, and MFCs, PFCs, and SF6 emissions increased
Gas/Source
C02
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Cement Manufacture
Waste Combustion
Lime Manufacture
Natural Gas Flaring
Limestone and Dolomite Use
Soda Ash Manufacture and Consumption
Carbon Dioxide Consumption
Land-Use Change and Forestry (Sink)3
International Bunker Fuelsb
CH4
Landfills
Enteric Fermentation
Natural Gas Systems
Coal Mining
Manure Management
Petroleum Systems
Wastewater Treatment
Rice Cultivation
Stationary Combustion
Mobile Combustion
Petrochemical Production
Agricultural Residue Burning
Silicon Carbide Production
International Bunker Fuelsb
N20
Agricultural Soil Management
Mobile Combustion
Nitric Acid
Manure Management
Stationary Combustion
Adipic Acid
Human Sewage
Agricultural Residue Burning
Waste Combustion
International Bunker Fuelsb
MFCs, PFCs, and SF6
Substitution of Ozone-Depleting Substances
HCFC-22 Production
Electrical Transmission and Distribution
Aluminum Production
Semiconductor Manufacture
Magnesium Production and Processing
1990
4,913.0
4,835.7
33.3
17.6
11.2
5.1
5.1
4.1
0.8
(1,059.9)
114.0
644.5
217.3
129.5
121.2
87.9
26.4
27.2
11.2
8.7
8.5
5.0
1.2
0.5
+
+
396.9
269.0
54.3
17.8
16.0
13.6
18.3
7.1
0.4
0.3
1.0
83.9
0.9
34.8
20.5
19.3
2.9
5.5
• 1995
\ 5,219.8
! 5,121.3
j 36.8
i 23-1
i 12.8
1
! 13.6
i 7.0
I "
! (1,019.1)
i 101.0
i
i 650.5
! 222.9
1
! 136.3
i 124.2
i 74-6
| 31.0
! 24.5
j 11.8
: 9.5
1
i 8.9
! 4.9
! 1.5
i +
i
i
i 431.9
| 285.4
| 66.8
! 19.9
i 16.4
i 14-3
| 20.3
i 8.2
i °-4
* 0.3
! 0.9
1
1
! 99.0
j 24.0
i 27-1
* 25.7
1
i 11.2
5.5
5.5
1996
5,403.2
5,303.0
37.1
24.0
13.5
13.0
7.3
4.3
1.1
(1,021.6)
102.2
638.0
219.1
132.2
125.8
69.3
30.7
24.0
11.9
8.8
9.0
4.8
1.6
0.6
+
+
441.6
294.6
65.3
20.7
16.8
14.9
20.8
7.8
0.4
0.3
0.9
115.1
34.0
31.2
25.7
11.6
7.0
5.6
1997
5,478.7
5,374.9
38.3
25.7
13.7
12.0
8.3
4.4
1.3
(981.9)
109.8
632.0
217.8
129.6
122.7
68.8
32.6
24.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
4.7
1.6
0.6
+
+
444.1
299.8
65.2
21.2
17.1
15.0
17.1
7.9
0.4
0.3
1.0
123.3
42.1
30.1
25.7
10.8
7.0
7.5
1998
5,489.7
5,386.8
39.2
25.1
13.9
10.8
8.1
4.3
1.4
(983.3)
112.8
624.8
213.6
127.5
122.1
66.5
35.2
23.3
12.1
10.1
7.6
4.6
1.6
0.6
+
+
433.7
300.3
64.2
20.9
17.2
15.1
7.3
8.1
0.5
0.2
1.0
138.6
49.6
40.0
25.7
10.1
6.8
6.3
by 61.7 percent.
1999
5,558.1
5,453.1
39.9
26.0
13.4
11.7
8.3
4.2
1.6
(990.4)
107.3
619.6
214.6
127.2
121.8
61.8
34.4
21.9
12.2
10.7
8.1
4.5
1.7
0.6
+
+
432.6
298.3
63.4
20.2
17.2
15.7
9.0
8.2
0.4
0.2
1.0
135.7
56.7
30.4
25.7
10.0
6.8
6.1
+ Does not exceed 0.05 Tg C02 Eq.
a Sinks are only included in net emissions total, and are based partly on projected activity data.
b Emissions from international bunker fuels are not included in totals.
Notes: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Parentheses indicate negative values (or sequestration).
-------
30 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
FIGORE3-4 1999 Greenhouse Gas
Emissions by Gas
C02 was the principal greenhouse gas emit-
ted by human activities, driven primarily by
emissions from fossil fuel combustion.
100
90
80
70
•g 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2.0% MFCs, PFCs&SF6
were the result of agricultural soil
management and mobile source fossil
fuel combustion. The emissions of
substitutes for ozone-depleting sub-
stances and emissions of HFC-23 dur-
ing the production of HCFC-22 were
the primary contributors to aggregate
HFC emissions. Electrical transmission
and distribution systems accounted for
most SFg emissions, while the majority
of PFC emissions were a by-product of
primary aluminum production.
As the largest source of U.S. green-
house gas emissions, CO2 from fossil
fuel combustion accounted for a nearly
constant 80 percent of global warming
potential (GWP)-weighted emissions in
the 1990s.7 Emissions from this source
category grew by 13 percent (617.4 Tg
CO2 Eq.) from 1990 to 1999 and were
responsible for most of the increase in
national emissions during this period.
The annual increase in CO, emissions
from fossil fuel combustion was 1.2 per-
cent in 1999, a figure close to the
source's average annual rate of 1.4 per-
cent during the 1990s. Historically,
changes in emissions from fossil fuel
combustion have been the dominant
factor affecting U.S. emission trends.
Changes in CO, emissions from fos-
sil fuel combustion are influenced by
many long-term and short-term factors,
including population and economic
growth, energy price fluctuations, tech-
nological changes, and seasonal tem-
peratures. On an annual basis, the
overall consumption of fossil fuels in
the United States and other countries
generally fluctuates in response to
changes in general economic condi-
tions, energy prices, weather, and the
availability of non-fossil alternatives.
For example, a year with increased con-
sumption of goods and services, low
fuel prices, severe summer and winter
weather conditions, nuclear plant clo-
sures, and lower precipitation feeding
hydroelectric output would be expected
to have proportionally greater fossil fuel
consumption than a year with poor eco-
nomic performance, high fuel prices,
mild temperatures, and increased output
from nuclear and hydroelectric plants.
Longer-term changes in energy con-
sumption patterns, however, tend to be
more a function of changes that affect
the scale of consumption (e.g., popula-
tion, number of cars, and size of
houses), the efficiency with which
energy is used in equipment (e.g., cars,
power plants, steel mills, and light
bulbs), and consumer behavior (e.g.,
walking, bicycling, or telecommuting to
work instead of driving).
Energy-related CO2 emissions are
also a function of the type of fuel or
energy consumed and its carbon inten-
sity. Producing heat or electricity using
natural gas instead of coal, for example,
can reduce the CO2 emissions associated
with energy consumption because of the
lower carbon content of natural gas per
unit of useful energy produced. Table
3-2 shows annual changes in emissions
during the last few years of the 1990s for
particular fuel types and sectors.
Emissions of CO, from fossil fuel
combustion grew rapidly in 1996, due
primarily to two factors: (1) fuel switch-
ing by electric utilities from natural gas
to more carbon-intensive coal as colder
winter conditions and the associated rise
in demand for natural gas from residen-
tial, commercial, and industrial cus-
tomers for heating caused gas prices to
rise sharply,- and (2) higher consumption
of petroleum fuels for transportation.
Milder weather conditions in summer
and winter moderated the growth in
emissions in 1997,- however, the shut-
down of several nuclear power plants led
electric utilities to increase their con-
sumption of coal and other fuels to offset
the lost capacity. In 1998, weather con-
ditions were again a dominant factor in
slowing the growth in emissions. Warm
winter temperatures resulted in a signifi-
cant drop in residential, commercial, and
industrial natural gas consumption. This
drop in emissions from natural gas used
for heating was primarily offset by two
factors: (1) electric utility emissions,
which increased in part due to a hot sum-
mer and its associated air conditioning
demand,- and (2) increased gasoline con-
sumption for transportation.
In 1999, the increase in emissions
from fossil fuel combustion was caused
largely by growth in petroleum con-
sumption for transportation. In addi-
tion, heating fuel demand partly
recovered in the residential, commer-
cial, and industrial sectors as winter
temperatures dropped relative to 1998,
although temperatures were still
warmer than normal. These increases
were offset, in part, by a decline in
emissions from electric utilities due pri-
marily to: (1) an increase in net genera-
tion of electricity by nuclear plants (8
percent) to record levels, which
reduced demand from fossil fuel plants,-
and (2) moderated summer tempera-
tures compared to the previous year,
thereby reducing electricity demand for
air conditioning. Utilization of existing
nuclear power plants, measured by a
7 If a full accounting of emissions from fossil fuel combustion is made by including emissions from the combustion of international bunker fuels and CH. and N2O emissions associ-
ated with fuel combustion, then this percentage increases to a constant 82 percent during the 1990s.
5 The capacity factor is defined as the ratio of the electrical energy produced by a generating unit for a given period of time to the electrical energy that could have been produced at
continuous full-power operation during the same period (U.S. DOE/E1A 2000a).
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 31
plant's capacity factor,8 increased from
just over 70 percent in 1990 to over 85
percent in 1999.
Another factor that does not affect
total emissions, but does affect the inter-
pretation of emission trends, is the allo-
cation of emissions from nonutility
power producers. The Energy Informa-
tion Administration (EIA) currently
includes fuel consumption by nonutilities
with the industrial end-use sector. In
1999, there was a large shift in generating
capacity from regulated utilities to nonu-
tilities, as restructuring legislation spurred
the sale of 7 percent of utility generating
capability (U.S. DOE/EIA 2000b). This
shift is illustrated by the increase in
industrial end-use sector emissions from
coal and the associated decrease in elec-
tric utility emissions. However, emissions
from the industrial end-use sector did not
increase as much as would be expected,
even though net generation by nonutili-
ties increased from 11 to 15 percent of
total U.S. electricity production (U.S.
DOE/EIA 2000b).9
Overall, from 1990 to 1999, total
emissions of CO2 and N2O increased by
645.2 (13 percent) and 35.7 Tg CO2 Eq.
(9 percent), respectively, while CH4
emissions decreased by 24.9 Tg CO2 Eq.
(4 percent). During the same period,
aggregate weighted emissions of HFCs,
PFCs, and SF6 rose by 51.8 Tg CO2 Eq.
(62 percent). Despite being emitted in
smaller quantities relative to the other
principal greenhouse gases, emissions of
HFCs, PFCs, and SFg are significant
because many of them have extremely
high global warming potentials and, in
the cases of PFCs and SFg, long atmos-
pheric lifetimes. Conversely, U.S. green-
house gas emissions were partly offset by
carbon sequestration in forests and land-
filled carbon, which were estimated to be
15 percent of total emissions in 1999.
Other significant trends in emissions
from source categories over the nine-
year period from 1990 through 1999
included the following:
» Aggregate HFC and PFC emissions
resulting from the substitution of
ozone-depleting substances (e.g.,
CFCs) increased by 55.8 Tg CO2
Eq. This increase was partly offset,
however, by reductions in PFC emis-
sions from aluminum production
(9.2 Tg CO, Eq. or 48 percent), and
reductions in emissions of HFC-23
from the production of HCFC-22
(4.4 Tg CO2 Eq. or 13 percent).
Reductions in PFC emissions from
aluminum production were the result
of both voluntary industry emission
reduction efforts and lower domestic
aluminum production. HFC-23 emis-
sions from the production of HCFC-
22 decreased due to a reduction in
the intensity of emissions from that
source, despite increased HCFC-22
production.
» Emissions of N,O from mobile com-
bustion rose by 9.1 Tg CO2 Eq. (17
percent), primarily due to increased
rates of N,O generation in highway
vehicles.
» CH4 emissions from coal mining
dropped by 26 Tg CO2 Eq. (30 per-
cent) as a result of the mining of less
gassy coal from underground mines
and the increased use of CH4 from
degasification systems.
9 It is unclear whether reporting problems for electric
utilities and the industrial end-use sector have
increased with the dramatic growth in nonutilities and
the opening of the electric power industry to increased
competition.
TABLE 3-2 Annual Change in C02 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion for Selected Fuels and Sectors
Changes in C02 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are influenced by many long- and short-term factors, including population and economic
growth, energy price fluctuations, technological changes, and seasonal temperatures.
End-UseSector/FuelType
1995-1996
1996-1997
1997-1998
1998-1999
Electric Utility
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Transportation3
Petroleum
Residential
Natural Gas
Commercial
Natural Gas
Industrial
Coal
Natural Gas
Tg C02 Eq. Percent
89.9 5.7
-25.3 -14.7
5.1 10.0
38.8 2.5
21.4 8.1
7.0 4.3
-7.3 -2.7
17.8 3.4
Tg C02 Eq. Percent
52.0 3.1
13.1 9.0
8.1 14.4
7.6 0.5
-14.0 -4.9
3.1 1.8
2.0 0.8
-0.5 -0.1
Tg C02 Eq. Percent
14.3 0.8
16.2 10.1
26.7 41.6
34.1 2.1
-24.0 -8.9
-11.1 -6.4
-1.1 -0.4
-14.5 -2.7
Tg C02 Eq. Percent
-32.1 -1.8
-7.8 -4.4
-17.4 -19.1
57.6 3.6
8.5 3.4
2.9 1.8
29.2 11.2
1.6 0.3
a Excludes emissions from international bunker fuels.
b Includes fuels and sectors not shown in table.
-------
32 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
• N2O emissions from agricultural soil
management increased by 29.3 Tg
CO2 Eq. (11 percent), as fertilizer con-
sumption and cultivation of nitrogen-
fixing crops rose.
• By 1998, all of the three major adipic
acid-producing plants had voluntarily
implemented N2O abatement tech-
nology. As a result, emissions fell by
9.3 Tg CO2 Eq. (51 percent). The
majority of this decline occurred from
1997 to 1998, despite increased pro-
duction.
The following sections describe the
concept of global warming potentials
(GWPs), present the anthropogenic
sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emis-
sions in the United States, briefly discuss
emission pathways, further summarize
the emission estimates, and explain the
relative importance of emissions from
each source category.
GLOBAL WARMING
POTENTIALS
Gases in the atmosphere can con-
tribute to the greenhouse effect both
directly and indirectly. Direct effects
occur when the gas itself is a green-
house gas. Indirect radiative forcing
occurs when chemical transformations
of the original gas produce a gas or
gases that are greenhouse gases, when a
gas influences the atmospheric lifetimes
of other gases, and/or when a gas affects
other atmospheric processes that alter
the radiative balance of the Earth (e.g.,
affect cloud formation or albedo). The
concept of a global warming potential
(GWP) has been developed to compare
the ability of each greenhouse gas to
trap heat in the atmosphere relative to
another gas. Carbon dioxide (CO2) was
chosen as the reference gas to be con-
sistent with IPCC guidelines.
Global warming potentials are not
provided for CO, NOx, NMVOCs,
SO2, and aerosols (e.g., sulfate and ele-
mental carbon) because there is no
agreed-upon method to estimate the
contribution of gases that are short-
lived in the atmosphere and have only
indirect effects on radiative forcing
(IPCC 1996b).
Recent Trends in Various U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions-Related Data
There are several ways to assess a nation's greenhouse gas-emitting intensity. The basis
for measures of intensity can be (1) per unit of aggregate energy consumption, because
energy-related activities are the largest sources of emissions; (2) per unit of fossil fuel con-
sumption, because almost all energy-related emissions involve the combustion of fossil
fuels; (3) per unit of electricity consumption, because the electric power industry—utilities
and nonutilities combined—was the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in
1999; (4) per unit of total gross domestic product as a measure of national economic activi-
ty; or (5) on a per capita basis. Depending on the measure used, the United States could
appearto have reduced or increased its national greenhouse gas intensity during the 1990s.
Table 3-3 provides data on various statistics related to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions nor-
malized to 1990 as a baseline year.
TABLE 3-3 AND FIGURE 3-5 Recent Trends in Various U.S. Data (Index: 1990 = 100)
Greenhouse gas emissions in the United States have grown at an average annual rate of 1.2
percent since 1990. This rate is slightly slower than that for total energy or fossil fuel con-
sumption—indicating an improved or lower greenhouse gas-emitting intensity—and much
slower than that for either electricity consumption or overall gross domestic product.
Variable
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Growth
Rate'
GHG Emissions3
Energy Consumption11
Fossil Fuel Consumption11
Electricity Consumption11
Gross Domestic Product0
Populationd
Atmospheric C02
Concentration6
99
100
99
102
100
101
100
101
101
101
102
103
103
101
103
104
103
105
105
104
101
105
106
105
108
110
105
101
106
108
107
111
112
106
102
109
111
110
114
116
108
102
111
112
112
116
122
109
103
111
112
112
119
127
110
104
112
115
113
120
132
112
104
1.2%
1.5%
1.4%
2.1%
3.2%
1.2%
0.4%
a GWP weighted values. d U.S. DOC/Census 2000.
b Energy content weighted values (U.S. DOE/EIA2000a). e Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Keeling and Whorf 2000).
c GDP in chained 1996 dollars (U.S. DOC/BEA 2000). ' Average annual growth rate.
At the same time, total U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions
have grown at about the
same rate as the national
population during the last
decade. Overall, global
atmospheric C02 concen-
trations (a function of many
complex anthropogenic
and natural processes) are
increasing at 0.4 percent
per year.
140
130
120
110
«•»
I
•5 100
90
80
Real GDP
Emissions per $ GDP
Sources; U.S. DOC/BEA 2000, U.S. DOC/Census 2001, and
U.S. EPA 2001(1.
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 33
Weather and Non-fossil Energy Adjustments to CO, from Fossil Fuel Combustion Trends
An analysis was performed using ElA's Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) model to examine the effects of variations in weath-
er and output from nuclear and hydroelectric generating plants on U.S. energy-related C02 emissions.10 Weather conditions affect energy
demand because of the impact they have on residential, commercial, and industrial end-use sector heating and cooling demands. Warmer win-
ters tend to reduce demand for heating fuels—especially natural gas—while cooler summers tend to reduce air conditioning-related electric-
ity demand. Although changes in electricity output from hydroelectric and nuclear power plants do not necessarily affect final energy demand,
increased output from these plants offsets electricity generation by fossil fuel power plants, and therefore leads to reduced C02 emissions.
FIGURE 3-6 Percent Difference in Adjusted and Actual
Energy-Related C02 Emissions: 1997-1999
The results of this analysis show that C02 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion would have been roughly 1.9 percent higher (102 Tg C02
Eq.) if weather conditions and hydroelectric and nuclear power gen-
eration had remained at normal levels.11 Similarly, emissions in 1997
and 1998 would have been roughly 0.5and 1.2percent(7 and 17Tg C02
Eq.) greater under normal conditions, respectively.
FIGURE 3-7 Recent Trends in Adjusted and Actual Energy-
Related C0n Emissions: 1997-1999
In addition to the absolute level of emissions being greater, the growth
rate in C02 emissions from fossil fuel combustion from 1998 to 1999
would have been 2.0 percent instead of the actual 1.2 percent if both
weather conditions and non-fossil electricity generation had been nor-
mal. Similarly, emissions in 1998 would have increased by 0.9 percent
under normal conditions versus the actual rate of 0.2 percent.
HydroS Nuclear
Electricity
Generation
Cooling
Degree-Days
Heating
Degree-Days
Total Adjusted
Emissions
Percent
Warmer winter conditions in both 1998 and 1999 had a significant effect on U.S. C02 emissions by reducing demand for heating fuels. Heating
degree-days in the United States in 1998 and 1999 were 14 and 7 percent below normal, respectively (see Figure 3-8).12 These warm winters,
however, were partly countered by increased electricity demand that resulted from hotter summers. Cooling degree-days in 1998 and 1999 were
18 and 3 percent above normal, respectively (see Figure 3-9).
Although no new U.S. nuclear power plants have been constructed in many years, the capacity factors13 of existing plants reached record lev-
els in 1998 and 1999, approaching 90 percent. This increase in utilization translated into increased electricity output by nuclear plants—slightly
more than 7 percent in both years. Increased output, however, was partly offset by reduced electricity output by hydroelectric power plants,
which declined by 10 and 4 percent in 1998 and 1999, respectively. Electricity generated by nuclear plants provides approximately twice as much
of the energy consumed in the United States as hydroelectric plants. Figure 3-10 shows nuclear and hydroelectric power plant capacity factors
since 1973 and 1989, respectively.
10 The STIFS model is employed in producing ElA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (U.S. DOE/E1A 2000d). Complete model documentation can be found at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/
steo/pub/contents.html. Various other factors that influence energy-related CCX emissions were also examined, such as changes in output from energy-intensive manufacturing indus-
tries, and changes in fossil fuel prices. These additional factors, however, were not found to have a significant effect on emission trends.
11 Normal levels are defined by decadal power generation trends.
12 Degree-days are relative measurements of outdoor air temperature. Heating degree-days are deviations of the mean daily temperature below 65°F, while cooling degree-days are devi-
ations of the mean daily temperature above 65°F. Excludes Alaska and Hawaii. Normals are based on data from 1961 through 1990. The variations in these normals during this time
period were 10 percent and 14 percent for heating and cooling degree-days, respectively (99 percent confidence interval).
13 The capacity factor is defined as the ratio of the electrical energy produced by a generating unit for a given period of time to the electrical energy that could have been produced at
continuous full-power operation during the same period (U.S. DOE/E1A 2000a).
-------
34 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
^^H FIGORE3-0 Annual Deviations from Normal U.S. Heating Degree-Days: 1949-1999 ^^^H
Warmer winter conditi
degree-days in the Uni
15
10
!l5
II.
11
i|-s
-10
-\*
Dns in both 1998 and 1999 had a significant effect on U.S. C02 emissions by reducing demand for heating fuels. Heating
ted States in 1998 and 1999 were 14 and 7 percent below normal, respectively.
10.2 (99% Confidence Lower Bound)
Normal
(4,576 heating degree-days)
1 1 ll I .1 1 1 ll 1 I 1
• 1 Ji l.lll II 1
|||l|l ' |l' "H |M- |
-10.2 (99TConfidence Upper Bound)
$ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Vofe; Climatological normal data (1961-1990) are highlighted. Statistical confidence interval for "normal" climatology period of
1961 through 1990.
Sources: U.S. DOC/NOAA 1998a, b; 1999a, b; and2001a, b.
^^H FIGORE3-9 Annual Deviations from Normal U.S. Cooling Degree-Days: 1949-1999 ^^^H
Warmer winters were
1999 were 18 and 3 per
20
10
§1
*•• c
Jil
1 1
M "
ii
i
-10
-20
\<*
sartly countered by increased electricity demand that resulted from hotter summers. Cooling degree-days in 1998 and
:ent above normal, respectively.
i4.1 (99% Conf dence Upper Bound)
III ., I. I I 1, 1. 1. Ill ll Ji ,
i _ •• -MII i r 1 1 ' •'
(1,183 cooling degree-days)
-14.1 (99% Confidence Lower Bound)
£ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
Note: Climatological normal data (1961-1990) are highlighted. Statistical confidence interval for "normal" climatology period
of 1961 through 1990.
Sources: U.S. DOC/NOAA 1998a, b; 1999a, b; and2001a, b.
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 35
FIGURE 3-10 U.S. Nuclear and Hydroelectric Power Plant Capacity Factors: 1973-1999
The utilization (i.e., capacity factors) of existing nuclear power plants reached record levels in 1998 and 1999, approaching 90 percent. This
increase in utilization translated into an increase in electricity output by nuclear plants of slightly more than 7 percent in both years. However,
it was partly offset by 10 and 14 percent respective declines in electricity output by hydroelectric power plants in 1998 and 1999.
100
90
^ 80
03
Si 70
03
-& 60
•§ 50
.6- 4°
O 30
J-20
10
0
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation Activities
otorvehicle use is increasing all over the world, including in the United States. Since the 1970s, the number of highway vehicles registered
in the United States has increased faster than the overall population (U.S. DOT/FHWA 1999). Likewise, the number of miles driven—up
13 percent from 1990 to 1999 (U.S. DOT/FHWA 1999)—and gallons of gasoline consumed each year in the United States (U.S. DOC/EIA 2000a)
have increased steadily since the 1980s. These increases in motor vehicle use are the result of a confluence of factors, including population
growth, economic growth, urban sprawl, low fuel prices, and increasing popularity of sport utility vehicles and other light-duty trucks that tend
to have lower fuel efficiency.14 A similar set of social and economic trends led to a significant increase in air travel and freight transportation—
by both air and road modes—during the 1990s.
Passenger cars, trucks, motorcycles, and buses emit significant quantities of air pollutants with local, regional, and global effects. Motor vehi-
cles are major sources of CO, C02, CH4, nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NOX, N20, and HFCs. They are also important con-
tributors to many serious environmental pollution problems, including ground-level ozone (i.e., smog), acid rain,fine particulate matter, and global
warming. Within the United States and abroad, government agencies have taken actions to reduce these emissions. Since the 1970s, the
Environmental Protection Agency has required the reduction of lead in gasoline, developed strict emission standards for new passenger cars
and trucks, directed states to enact comprehensive motor vehicle emission control programs, required inspection and maintenance programs,
and, more recently, introduced the use of reformulated gasoline. New vehicles are now equipped with advanced emissions controls, which are
designed to reduce emissions of NOX, hydrocarbons, and CO.
Table 3-4 summarizes greenhouse gas emissions from all transportation-related activities. Overall, transportation activities, excluding interna-
tional bunker fuels, accounted for an almost constant 26 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 1999. These emissions were
primarily C02 from fuel combustion, which increased by 16 percent from 1990 to 1999. However, because of larger increases in N20 and HFC emis-
sions during this period, overall emissions from transportation activities actually increased by 18 percent.
14 The average miles per gallon achieved by the U.S. highway vehicle fleet decreased by slightly less than one percent in both 1998 and 1999.
-------
36 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
TABLE 3-4 Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions (TgC02Eq.)
Overall, transportation activities (excluding international bunker fuels) accounted for an almost constant 26 percent of total U.S. greenhouse
gas emissions from 1990 to 1999. These emissions were primarily C02from fuel combustion, which increased by 16 percent during that period.
However, because of larger increases in N20 and HFC emissions, overall emissions from transportation activities actually increased by 18
percent.
£5^£J!!£l£50B£____________
C02
Passenger Cars
Light- Duty Trucks
Other Trucks
Aircraft3
Boats and Vessels
Locomotives
Buses
Other"
International Bunker Fuels0
CH4
Passenger Cars
Light- Duty Trucks
Other Trucks and Buses
Aircraft
Boats and Vessels
Locomotives
Otherd
International Bunker Fuels0
N20
Passenger Cars
Light- Duty Trucks
Other Trucks and Buses
Aircraft3
Boats and Vessels
Locomotives
Otherd
International Bunker Fuels0
MFCs
Mobile Air Conditioners6
1990
1,474.4
620.0
283.1
206.0
176.7
59.4
28.4
10.7
90.1
114.0
5.0
2.4
1.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
+
54.3
31.0
17.8
2.6
1.7
0.4
0.3
0.6
1.0
+
+
1995
1,581.8
641.9
325.3
235.9
171.5
66.9
31.5
13.5
95.3
101.0
4.9
2.0
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
+
66.8
33.0
27.1
3.6
1.7
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.9
9.5
9.5
1996
1,621.2
654.1
333.5
248.1
180.2
63.8
33.4
11.3
96.7
102.2
4.8
2.0
1.6
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
+
65.3
32.7
23.9
5.6
1.8
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.9
13.5
13.5
1997
1,631.4
660.2
337.3
257.0
179.0
50.2
34.4
12.0
101.4
109.8
4.7
2.0
1.6
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
+
65.2
32.4
24.0
5.8
1.7
0.3
0.2
0.6
1.0
17.2
17.2
1998
1,659.0
674.5
356.9
257.9
183.0
47.9
33.6
12.3
93.0
112.8
4.6
2.0
1.5
0.7
0.1
0.1
+
0.2
+
64.2
32.1
23.3
5.9
1.8
0.3
0.2
0.6
1.0
20.6
20.6
1999
1,716.4
688.9
364.8
269.7
184.6
65.6
35.1
12.9
94.9
107.3
4.5
1.9
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.1
+
0.2
+
63.4
31.5
22.7
6.1
1.8
0.4
0.2
0.6
1.0
23.7
23.7
+ Does not exceed 0.05 Tg C02 Eq.
a Aircraft emissions consist of emissions from all jet fuel (less bunker fuels) and aviation gas consumption.
b "Other" C02 emissions include motorcycles, construction equipment, agricultural machinery, pipelines, and lubricants.
c Emissions from international bunker fuels include emissions from both civilian and military activities, but are not included in totals.
d "Other" CH4 and N20 emissions include motorcycles; construction equipment; agricultural machinery; gasoline-powered recreational, industrial, lawn and garden, light
commercial, logging, airport service, and other equipment; and diesel-powered recreational, industrial, lawn and garden, light construction, and airport service.
e Includes primarily HFC-134a.
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 37
All gases in this report are presented
in units of teragrams of carbon dioxide
equivalents (Tg CO2 Eq.). The relation-
ship between gigagrams (Gg) of a gas
and Tg CO2 Eq. can be expressed as
follows:
The GWP of a greenhouse gas is the
ratio of global warming from one unit
mass of a greenhouse gas to that of one
unit mass of CO2 over a specified
period of time. While any time period
can be selected, the 100-year GWPs
recommended by the IPCC and
employed by the United States for pol-
icymaking and reporting purposes were
used in this report (IPCC 1996b). GWP
values are listed in Table 3-5.
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
The global carbon cycle is made up
of large carbon flows and reservoirs. Bil-
lions of tons of carbon in the form of
CO2 are absorbed by oceans and living
biomass (sinks) and are emitted to the
TABLE 3-5 Global Warming Potentials
(100-Year Time Horizon)
The concept of a global warming
potential (GWP) has been developed to
compare the ability of each greenhouse
gas to trap heat in the atmosphere
relative to another gas. Carbon dioxide
was chosen as the reference gas to be
consistent with IPCC guidelines.
Gas
GWP
Carbon Dioxide (CO,).
.1
Methane (CH4)* 21
Nitrous Oxide (N20) 310
HFC-23 11,700
HFC-125 2,800
HFC-134a 1,300
HFC-143a 3,800
HFC-152a 140
HFC-227ea 2,900
HFC-236fa 6,300
HFC-4310mee 1,300
CF4 6,500
C2F6 9,200
C4F10 7,000
C6F14 7,400
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900
*The methane GWP includes direct effects and
those indirect effects due to the production of
tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor.
The indirect effects due to the production of C02 are
not included.
Source: IPCC 1996b.
atmosphere annually through natural
processes (sources). When in equilib-
rium, carbon fluxes among these reser-
voirs are balanced.
Since the Industrial Revolution, this
equilibrium of atmospheric carbon has
been altered. Atmospheric concentra-
tions of CO2 have risen by about 31
percent (IPCC 200 Ib), principally
because of fossil fuel combustion, which
accounted for 98 percent of total U.S.
CO2 emissions in 1999. Changes in
land use and forestry practices can also
emit CO2 (e.g., through conversion of
forest land to agricultural or urban use)
or can act as a sink for CO2 (e.g.,
through net additions to forest bio-
mass).
Figure 3-11 and Table 3-7 summarize
U.S. sources and sinks of CO2. The
remainder of this section discusses CO2
emission trends in greater detail.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electric Utilities
Like transportation, activities related to the generation, transmission, and distribution of
electricity in the United States resulted in a significant fraction of total U.S. greenhouse
gas emissions. The electric power industry in the United States is composed of traditional
electric utilities, as well as other entities, such as power marketers and nonutility power
producers. Table 3-6 presents emissions from electric utility-related activities.
Aggregate emissions from electric utilities of all greenhouse gases increased by 11 per-
cent from 1990 to 1999, and accounted for a relatively constant 29 percent of U.S. emissions
during the same period. Emissions from nonutility generators are not included in these esti-
mates. Nonutilities were estimated to have produced about 15 percent of the electricity
generated in the United States in 1999, up from 11 percent in 1998 (U.S. DOE/EIA 2000b).
Therefore, a more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions from the electric
power industry (i.e., utilities and nonutilities combined) would account for roughly 40 per-
cent of U.S. C02 emissions (U.S. U.S. DOE/EIA 2000c).
The majority of electric utility-related emissions resulted from the combustion of coal in
boilers to produce steam that is passed through a turbine to generate electricity. Overall,
the generation of electricity—especially when nonutility generators are included—results
in a larger portion of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions than any other activity.
Gas/Fuel Type
or Source
C02
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Geothermal
CH4
Stationary
Combustion (Utilities)
N20
Stationary
Combustion (Utilities)
SF6
Electrical
Transmission and
1990
1,757.3
1,509.3
151.1
96.8
0.2
0.5
0.5
7.4
7.4
20.5
1995
1,810.6
1,587.7
171.8
51.0
0.1
0.5
0.5
7.8
7.8
25.7
1996
1,880.3
1,677.7
146.5
56.0
0.1
0.5
0.5
8.2
8.2
25.7
1997
1,953.5
1,729.7
159.6
64.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
8.5
8.5
25.7
1998
2,010.7
1,744.0
175.8
90.8
0.1
0.5
0.5
8.7
8.7
25.7
1999
1,953.4
1,711.9
168.0
73.4
+
0.5
0.5
8.6
8.6
25.7
Distribution
20.5 ' 25.7
25.7
25.7
25.7
25.7
+ Does not exceed 0.05 Tg C02 Eq.
Notes: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Excludes emissions from nonutilities, which are currently
accounted for under the industrial end-use sector.
-------
38 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Cement Manufacture
Waste Combustion
Lime Manufacture
Natural Gas Flaring
Limestone and Dolomite Use
Soda Ash Manufacture and Consumption
Carbon Dioxide Consumption
Land-Use Change and Forestry (Sink)3
International Bunker Fuelsb
| Total Emissions
1 Net Emissions (Sources and Sinks)
4,835.7
33.3
17.6
11.2
5.1
5.1
4.1
0.8
(1,059.9)
114.0
4,913.0
3,853.0
5,121.3
36.8
23.1
12.8
13.6
7.0
4.3
1.0
(1,019.1)
101.0
5,219.8
4,200.8
5,303.0
37.1
24.0
13.5
13.0
7.3
4.3
1.1
(1,021.6)
102.2
5,403.2
4,381.6
5,374.9
38.3
25.7
13.7
12.0
8.3
4.4
1.3
(981.9)
109.8
5,478.7
4,496.8
5,386.8
39.2
25.1
13.9
10.8
8.1
4.3
1.4
(983.3)
112.8
5,489.7
4,506.4
5,453.1
39.9
26.0
13.4
11.7
8.3
4.2
1.6
(990.4)
107.3
5,558.1
4,567.8
FIGORE 3-11 AND TABLE 3-7 U.S. Sources of C(L Emissions and Sinks (Tg co2 Eq.)
Carbon dioxide accounted for 82 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1999, and fossil fuel combustion accounted for 98 percent
of total C02 emissions. Changes in land use and forestry practices resulted in a net decrease of 990.4 Tg C02 Eq., or 18 percent, of C02 emissions.
a Sinks are only included in net emissions total, and are based partly on projected activity data.
b Emissions from international bunker fuels are not included in totals.
Notes: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Parentheses indicate negative values (or sequestration).
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Cement Manufacture
Waste Combustion
Lime Manufacture
Natural Gas Flaring
Limestone and Dolomite Use
Soda Ash Manufacture and Consumption
Carbon Dioxide Consumption
5,453.1
CO2 < s a portion of
all GHG emissions
8.3
4.2
1.6
Energy
Energy-related activities accounted
for the vast majority of U.S. CO2 emis-
sions from 1990 through 1999. Carbon
dioxide from fossil fuel combustion was
the dominant contributor. In 1999,
approximately 84 percent of the energy
consumed in the United States was pro-
duced through the combustion of fossil
fuels. The remaining 16 percent came
from other sources, such as hydropower,
biomass, nuclear, wind, and solar energy
(see Figures 3-12 and 3-13). This section
discusses specific trends related to CO2
emissions from energy consumption.
\*> <$ -p <
TgC02Eq.in1999
Fossil Fuel Combustion
As fossil fuels are combusted, the car-
bon stored in them is almost entirely
emitted as COr The amount of carbon
in fuels per unit of energy content varies
significantly by fuel type. For example,
coal contains the highest amount of car-
bon per unit of energy, while petroleum
has about 25 percent less carbon than
coal, and natural gas about 45 percent
less.
From 1990 through 1999, petroleum
supplied the largest share of U.S.
energy demands, accounting for an
average of 39 percent of total energy
consumption. Natural gas and coal fol-
lowed in order of importance, account-
ing for an average of 24 and 23 percent
of total energy consumption, respec-
tively. Most petroleum was consumed in
the transportation end-use sector, the
vast majority of coal was used by elec-
tric utilities, and natural gas was con-
sumed largely in the industrial and
residential sectors.
Emissions of CO, from fossil fuel
combustion increased at an average
annual rate of 1.4 percent from 1990 to
1999. The fundamental factors behind
this trend included (1) a robust domestic
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 39
economy, (2) relatively low energy
prices as compared to 1990, (3) fuel
switching by electric utilities, and (4)
heavier reliance on nuclear energy.
Between 1990 and 1999, CO2 emis-
sions from fossil fuel combustion
steadily increased from 4,835.7 to
5,453.1 Tg CO2 Eq.—a 13 percent
total increase over the ten-year period.
In 1999, fossil fuel emission trends
were primarily driven by similar fac-
tors—a strong economy and an
increased reliance on carbon-neutral
nuclear power for electricity genera-
tion. Although the price of crude oil
increased by over 40 percent between
1998 and 1999, and relatively mild
weather conditions in 1999 moderated
energy consumption for heating and
cooling, emissions from fossil fuels still
rose by 1.2 percent. Emissions from the
combustion of petroleum products in
1999 grew the most (64 Tg CO, Eq., or
about 3 percent), although emissions
from the combustion of petroleum by
electric utilities decreased by 19 per-
cent. That decrease was offset by
increased emissions from petroleum
combustion in the residential, commer-
cial, industrial, and especially trans-
portation end-use sectors. Emissions
from the combustion of natural gas in
1999 increased slightly (5 Tg CO2 Eq.,
or 0.4 percent), and emissions from
coal consumption decreased slightly
(3 Tg CO2 Eq., or 0.1 percent) as the
industrial end-use sector substituted
more natural gas for coal in 1999.
Along with the four end-use sectors,
electric utilities also emit CO2,
although these emissions are produced
as they consume fossil fuel to provide
electricity to one of the four end-use
sectors. For the discussion in this chap-
ter, electric utility emissions have been
distributed to each end-use sector based
upon their fraction of aggregate elec-
tricity consumption. This method of
distributing emissions assumes that each
end-use sector consumes electricity that
is generated with the national average
mix of fuels according to their carbon
intensity. In reality, sources of electricity
vary widely in carbon intensity. By
assuming the same carbon intensity for
each end-use sector's electricity con-
sumption, for example, emissions attrib-
uted to the residential sector may be
overestimated, while emissions attrib-
uted to the industrial sector may be
underestimated. Emissions from electric
utilities are addressed separately after
the end-use sectors have been dis-
cussed.
It is important to note, though, that
all emissions resulting from the genera-
tion of electricity by the growing num-
ber of nonutility power plants are
currently allocated to the industrial sec-
tor. Nonutilities supplied 15 percent of
the electricity consumed in the United
States in 1999. Emissions from U.S. ter-
ritories are also calculated separately
due to a lack of specific consumption
data for the individual end-use sectors.
Table 3-8, Figure 3-14, and Figure 3-15
summarize CO, emissions from fossil
fuel combustion by end-use sector.
Industrial End-Use Sector. Industrial
CO2 emissions—resulting both directly
from the combustion of fossil fuels and
indirectly from the generation of elec-
tricity by utilities that is consumed by
industry—accounted for 33 percent of
CO2 from fossil fuel combustion in
1999. About two-thirds of these
FIGURE3-12 1999 U.S. Energy Consumption by Energy Source • FIGURES-IS U.S. Energy Consumption: 1990-1999
Petroleum supplied the largest share of U.S. energy demands in 1999,
accounting for 39 percent of total energy consumption. Natural gas
and coal followed in order of importance, each accounting for 23 per-
cent of total energy consumption.
In 1999, approximately 84 percent of the energy consumed in the
United States was produced through the combustion of fossil fuels.
The remaining 16 percent came from other energy sources, such as
hydropower, biomass, nuclear, wind, and solar.
100
I
.1
•3
i
60
40
20
Total Consumption
Fossil Fuels
Renewable & Nuclear
Source: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000a.
Source: U.S. DOE/EIA 2000a.
-------
40 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
FIGORE 3-14 1999 C02 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion by Sector and Fuel Type
Of the emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 1999, most petroleum was consumed in the transportation end-use sector. The vast majority of
coal was consumed by electric utilities, and natural gas was consumed largely in the industrial and residential end-use sectors.
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
1,711.9
Relative Contribution
by Fuel Type
50.5
•
4.2 I 6.3 Coal 0.9
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Utilities U.S. Territories
FIGORE 3-15 1999 End-Use Sector Emissions of CO, from Fossil Fuel Combustion
Electric utilities were responsible for 36 percent of the U.S. emissions of C02 from fossil fuel
combustion in 1999. The remaining 64 percent of emissions resulted from the direct combus-
tion of fuel for heat and other uses in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transporta-
tion end-use sectors.
2,000
Electricity Consumption
Direct Fossil Fuel Combustion
Residential
Commercial
Industrial Transportation U.S. Territories
emissions resulted from direct fossil fuel
combustion to produce steam and/or
heat for industrial processes or by
nonutility electricity generators that are
classified as industrial, the latter of
which are growing rapidly. The remain-
ing third of emissions resulted from
consuming electricity from electric util-
ities for motors, electric furnaces,
ovens, lighting, and other applications.
Transportation End-Use Sector. Trans-
portation activities (excluding interna-
tional bunker fuels) accounted for 31
percent of CO, emissions from fossil
fuel combustion in 1999.15 Virtually all
of the energy consumed in this end-use
sector came from petroleum products.
Slightly less than two-thirds of the
emissions resulted from gasoline con-
sumption in motor vehicles. The
remaining emissions came from other
transportation activities, including the
' If emissions from international bunker fuels are
included, the transportation end-use sector accounted
for 33 percent of U.S. emissions from fossil fuel com-
bustion in 1999.
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 41
TABLE 3-8 CO, Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion by End-Use Sector (Tg CD, Eq.)
In 1999, industrial C02 emissions resulting from directfossil fuel combustion and from the generation of electricity by utilities accounted for 33
percent of C02 from fossil fuel combustion. Transportation activities (excluding international bunker fuels) accounted for 31 percent of C02
emissions from fossil fuel combustion the same year, and the residential and commercial sectors accounted for 19 and 16 percent, respectively.
End-Use Sector*
1990
1995
1996
Industrial
Transportation
Residential
Commercial
U.S. Territories
1,636.0
1,474.4
930.7
760.8
33.7
1,709.5
1,581.8
988.7
797.2
44.0
1,766.0
1,621.2
1,047.5
828.2
40.1
* Emissions from electric utilities are allocated based on aggregate electricity consumption in each end-use sector.
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
1997
1,783.6
1,631.4
1,044.2
872.9
42.8
1998
1,758.8
1,659.0
1,040.9
880.2
47.9
1999
1,783.9
1,716.4
1,035.8
864.0
53.0
combustion of diesel fuel in heavy-duty
vehicles and jet fuel in aircraft.
Residential and Commercial End-Use
Sectors. The residential and commer-
cial end-use sectors accounted for 19
and 16 percent, respectively, of CO2
emissions from fossil fuel consumption
in 1999. Both sectors relied heavily on
electricity for meeting energy needs,
with 66 and 74 percent, respectively, of
their emissions attributable to electricity
consumption for lighting, heating, cool-
ing, and operating appliances. The
remaining emissions were largely due to
the consumption of natural gas and
petroleum, primarily for meeting heat-
ing and cooking needs.
Electric Utilities. The United States
relies on electricity to meet a significant
portion of its energy demands, especial-
ly for lighting, electric motors, heating,
and air conditioning. Electric utilities
are responsible for consuming 27 per-
cent of U.S. energy from fossil fuels and
emitted 36 percent of the CO, from fos-
sil fuel combustion in 1999. The type of
fuel combusted by utilities significantly
affects their emissions. For example,
some electricity is generated with low
CO2-emitting energy technologies, par-
ticularly non-fossil fuel options, such as
nuclear, hydroelectric, or geothermal
energy. However, electric utilities rely
on coal for over half of their total ener-
gy requirements and accounted for 85
percent of all coal consumed in the
United States in 1999. Consequently,
changes in electricity demand have a
significant impact on coal consumption
and associated CO2 emissions. Note,
again, that all emissions resulting from
the generation of electricity by nonutil-
ity plants are currently allocated to the
industrial end-use sector.
Natural Gas Flaring
Carbon dioxide is produced when
natural gas from oil wells is flared (i.e.,
combusted) to relieve rising pressure or
to dispose of small quantities of gas that
are not commercially marketable. In
1999, flaring activities emitted approxi-
mately 11.7 Tg CO2 Eq., or about 0.2
percent of U.S. CO2 emissions.
Biomass Combustion
Biomass in the form of fuel wood and
wood waste was used primarily by the
industrial end-use sector. The trans-
portation end-use sector was the pre-
dominant user of biomass-based fuels,
such as ethanol from corn and woody
crops. Ethanol and ethanol blends, such
as gasohol, are typically used to fuel
public transport vehicles.
Although these fuels emit CO2, in
the long run the CO2 emitted from bio-
fuel consumption does not increase
atmospheric CO2 concentrations if the
biogenic carbon emitted is offset by the
growth of new biomass. For example,
fuel wood burned one year but regrown
the next only recycles carbon, rather
than creating a net increase in total
atmospheric carbon. Net carbon fluxes
from changes in biogenic carbon reser-
voirs in wooded areas or croplands are
accounted for under the Land-Use
Change and Forestry section of this
chapter.
Gross CO, emissions from biomass
combustion were 234.1 Tg CO2 Eq. in
1999, with the industrial sector account-
ing for 81 percent and the residential
sector 14 percent of the emissions.
Ethanol consumption by the transporta-
tion sector accounted for only 3 percent
of CO, emissions from biomass com-
bustion.
Industrial Processes
Emissions are produced as a by-prod-
uct of many nonenergy-related activi-
ties. For example, industrial processes
can chemically transform raw materials.
This transformation often releases such
greenhouse gases as CO2. The major
production processes that emit CO2
include cement manufacture, lime man-
ufacture, limestone and dolomite use,
soda ash manufacture and consumption,
and CO2 consumption. Total CO2
emissions from these sources were
-------
42 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
approximately 67.4 Tg CO2 Eq. in
1999, or about 1 percent of all CO2
emissions. Between 1990 and 1999,
emissions from most of these sources
increased, except for emissions from
soda ash manufacture and consumption,
which have remained relatively con-
stant.
Cement Manufacture
(39.9 Tg C02 Eq.)
Carbon dioxide is emitted primarily
during the production of clinker, an
intermediate product from which
finished Portland and masonry cement
are made. When calcium carbonate
(CaCO3) is heated in a cement kiln to
form lime and CO2, the lime combines
with other materials to produce clinker,
and the CO2 is released to the atmos-
phere.
Lime Manufacture
(13.4 Tg C02 Eq.)
Lime is used in steel making, con-
struction, pulp and paper manufactur-
ing, and water and sewage treatment. It
is manufactured by heating limestone
(mostly calcium carbonate, CaCO3) in
a kiln, creating calcium oxide (quick-
lime) and CO2, which is normally emit-
ted to the atmosphere.
Limestone and Dolomite Use
(8.3TgC02Eq.)
Limestone (CaCO3) and dolomite
(Ca Mg(CO3)2) are basic raw materials
used by a wide variety of industries,
including the construction, agriculture,
chemical, and metallurgical industries.
For example, limestone can be used as a
purifier in refining metals. In the case of
iron ore, limestone heated in a blast fur-
nace reacts with impurities in the iron
ore and fuels, generating CO2 as a by-
product. Limestone is also used in flue
gas desulfurization systems to remove
sulfur dioxide from the exhaust gases
Soda Ash Manufacture and
Consumption (4.2 Tg C02 Eq.)
Commercial soda ash (sodium car-
bonate, Na2CO3) is used in many con-
sumer products, such as glass, soap and
detergents, paper, textiles, and food.
During the manufacture of soda ash,
some natural sources of sodium carbon-
ate are heated and transformed into a
crude soda ash, in which CO2 is gener-
ated as a by-product. In addition, CO2
is often released when the soda ash is
consumed.
Carbon Dioxide Consumption
(1.6 Tg C02 Eq.)
Carbon dioxide is used directly in
many segments of the economy,
including food processing, beverage
manufacturing, chemical processing,
and a host of industrial and other mis-
cellaneous applications. This CO2 may
be produced as a by-product from the
production of certain chemicals (e.g.,
ammonia) from select natural gas wells,
or by separating it from crude oil and
natural gas. For the most part, the CO2
used in these applications is eventually
released to the atmosphere.
Land-Use Change and Forestry
(Sink) (990.4 Tg C02 Eq.)
When humans alter the terrestrial
biosphere through land use, changes in
land use, and forest management prac-
tices, they alter the natural carbon flux
between biomass, soils, and the atmos-
phere. Forest management practices, the
management of agricultural soils, and
landfilling of yard trimmings have
resulted in a net uptake (sequestration)
of carbon in the United States that is
equivalent to about 15 percent of total
U.S. gross emissions.
Forests (including vegetation, soils,
and harvested wood) accounted for
approximately 91 percent of the total
sequestration, agricultural soils (includ-
ing mineral and organic soils and the
application of lime) accounted for 8 per-
cent, and landfilled yard trimmings
accounted for less than 1 percent. The
net forest sequestration is largely a result
of improved forest management prac-
tices, the regeneration of previously
cleared forest areas, and timber harvest-
ing. Agricultural mineral soils account
for a net carbon sink that is more than
three times larger than the sum of emis-
sions from organic soils and liming. Net
sequestration in these soils is largely due
to improved management practices on
cropland and grazing land, especially
using conservation tillage (leaving
residues on the field after harvest), and
taking erodible lands out of production
and planting them with grass or trees
through the Conservation Reserve Pro-
gram. Finally, the net sequestration from
yard trimmings is due to their long-term
accumulation in landfills.
Waste
Waste Combustion (26.0 Tg C02 Eq.)
Waste combustion involves the burn-
ing of garbage and nonhazardous solids,
referred to as municipal solid waste
(MSW), as well as the burning of haz-
ardous waste. Carbon dioxide emissions
arise from the organic (i.e., carbon)
materials found in these wastes. Within
MSW, many products contain carbon of
biogenic origin, and the CO2 emissions
from their combustion are reported
under the Land-Use Change and
Forestry section. However, several com-
ponents of MSW—plastics, synthetic
rubber, synthetic fibers, and carbon
black—are of fossil fuel origin, and are
included as sources of CO2 emissions.
METHANE EMISSIONS
Atmospheric methane (CH4) is an
integral component of the greenhouse
effect, second only to CO2 as a contrib-
utor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions. The overall contribution of
CH4 to global warming is significant
because it has been estimated to be
21 times more effective at trapping
heat in the atmosphere than CO2
(i.e., the GWP value of CH4 is 21)
(IPCCl996b). Over the last two cen-
turies, the concentration of CH4 in the
atmosphere has more than doubled
(IPCC 200Ib). Experts believe these
atmospheric increases were due largely
to increasing emissions from anthro-
pogenic sources, such as landfills, natural
gas and petroleum systems, agricultural
activities, coal mining, stationary and
mobile combustion, wastewater treat-
ment, and certain industrial processes
(see Figure 3-16 and Table 3-9).
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 43
FIGURE 3-16 AND TABLE 3-9 U.S. Sources of Methane Emissions (TgC02Eq.)
Methane accounted for 9 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1999.
enteric fermentation, and natural gas systems were the source of 75 percent of
emissions.
Source
1990
1995
1996
1997 1998
Landfills,
total CH,
1999
Landfills
Enteric Fermentation
Natural Gas Systems
Coal Mining
Manure Management
Petroleum Systems
Wastewater Treatment
Rice Cultivation
Stationary Combustion
Mobile Combustion
Petrochemical Production
Agricultural Residue Burning
Silicon Carbide Production
International Bunker Fuels*
217.3
129.5
121.2
87.9
26.4
27.2
11.2
8.7
8.5
5.0
1.2
0.5
+
.(-
222.9
136.3
124.2
74.6
31.0
24.5
11.8
9.5
8.9
4.9
1.5
0.5
+
+
219.1
132.2
125.8
69.3
30.7
24.0
11.9
8.8
9.0
4.8
1.6
0.6
+
+
217.8
129.6
122.7
68.8
32.6
24.0
12.0
9.6
8.1
4.7
1.6
0.6
+
+
213.6
127.5
122.1
66.5
35.2
23.3
12.1
10.1
7.6
4.6
1.6
0.6
+
+
214.6
127.2
121.8
61.8
34.4
21.9
12.2
10.7
8.1
4.5
1.7
0.6
+
+
+ Does not exceed 0.05 Tg C02 Eq.
* Emissions from international bunker fuels are not included in totals.
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
Landfills
Enteric Fermentation
Natural Gas Systems
Coal Mining
Manure Management
Petroleum Systems
Wastewater Treatment
Rice Cultivation
Stationary Sources
Mobile Sources
Petrochemical Production
Agricultural Residue Burning
Silicon Carbide Production
214.6
,•; 127.2
121.8
34.4
CH4 as a portion of
all GHG e nissions
' 8.1
•4.5
1.7
0.6
<0.05
Tg C02 Eq. in 1999
Landfills
Landfills are the largest source of
anthropogenic CH4 emissions in the
United States. In an environment
where the oxygen content is low or
nonexistent, organic materials—such as
yard waste, household waste, food
waste, and paper—can be decomposed
by bacteria, resulting in the generation
of CH4 and biogenic CO2. Methane
emissions from landfills are affected by
site-specific factors, such as waste com-
position, moisture, and landfill size.
In 1999, CH4 emissions from U.S.
landfills were 214.6 Tg CO2 Eq., down
by 1 percent since 1990. The relatively
constant emission estimates are a result
of two offsetting trends: (1) the amount
of municipal solid waste in landfills
contributing to CH4 emissions has
increased, thereby increasing the
potential for emissions,- and (2) the
amount of landfill gas collected and
combusted by landfill operators has
also increased, thereby reducing emis-
sions. Emissions from U.S. municipal
solid waste landfills accounted for 94
percent of total landfill emissions, while
industrial landfills accounted for the
remainder. Approximately 28 percent
of the CH4 generated in U.S. landfills
in 1999 was recovered and combusted,
often for energy.
A regulation promulgated in March
1996 requires the largest U.S. landfills
to collect and combust their landfill
gas to reduce emissions of non-
methane volatile organic compounds
(NMVOCs). It is estimated that by the
year 2000 this regulation will have
reduced landfill CH4 emissions by
more than 50 percent.
Natural Gas and
Petroleum Systems
Methane is the major component of
natural gas. During the production,
processing, transmission, and distribu-
tion of natural gas, fugitive emissions of
CH4 often occur. Because natural gas is
often found in conjunction with petro-
leum deposits, leakage from petroleum
systems is also a source of emissions.
Emissions vary greatly from facility to
facility and are largely a function of
operation and maintenance procedures
and equipment conditions. In 1999,
CH4 emissions from U.S. natural gas
systems were estimated to be 121.8 Tg
CO2 Eq., accounting for approximately
20 percent of U.S. CH4 emissions.
Petroleum is found in the same geo-
logical structures as natural gas, and the
two are retrieved together. Methane is
also saturated in crude oil, and
volatilizes as the oil is exposed to the
atmosphere at various points along the
-------
44 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
system. Emissions of CH4 from the
components of petroleum systems—
including crude oil production, crude
oil refining, transportation, and distri-
bution—generally occur as a result of
system leaks, disruptions, and routine
maintenance. In 1999, emissions from
petroleum systems were estimated to be
21.9TgCO2 Eq., or just less than 4 per-
cent of U.S. CH4 emissions.
From 1990 to 1999, combined CH4
emissions from natural gas and petro-
leum systems decreased by 3 percent.
Emissions from natural gas systems have
remained fairly constant, while emis-
sions from petroleum systems have
declined gradually since 1990, primarily
due to production declines.
Coal Mining
Produced millions of years ago dur-
ing the formation of coal, CH4 trapped
within coal seams and surrounding rock
strata is released when the coal is
mined. The quantity of CH4 released to
the atmosphere during coal mining
operations depends primarily upon the
depth and type of the coal that is
mined.
Methane from surface mines is emit-
ted directly to the atmosphere as the
rock strata overlying the coal seam are
removed. Because CH4 in underground
mines is explosive at concentrations of
5 to 15 percent in air, most active
underground mines are required to vent
this CH4. At some mines, CH4 recovery
systems may supplement these ventila-
tion systems. Recovery of CH4 in the
United States has increased in recent
years. During 1999, coal mining activi-
ties emitted 61.8 Tg CO2 Eq. of CH4,
or 10 percent of U.S. CH4 emissions.
From 1990 to 1999, emissions from this
source decreased by 30 percent due, in
part, to increased use of the CH4 col-
lected by mine degasification systems.
Agriculture
Agriculture accounted for 28 percent
of U.S. CH4 emissions in 1999, with
enteric fermentation in domestic live-
stock, manure management, and rice
cultivation representing the majority.
Agricultural waste burning also con-
tributed to CH4 emissions from agricul-
tural activities.
Enteric Fermentation
(127.2 Tg C02 Eq.)
During animal digestion, CH4 is pro-
duced through the process of enteric fer-
mentation, in which microbes residing in
animal digestive systems break down the
feed consumed by the animal. Rumi-
nants, which include cattle, buffalo,
sheep, and goats, have the highest CH4
emissions among all animal types
because they have a rumen, or large fore-
stomach, in which CH4-producing
fermentation occurs. Nonruminant
domestic animals, such as pigs and
horses, have much lower CH. emissions.
' 4
In 1999, enteric fermentation was the
source of about 21 percent of U.S. CH4
emissions, and more than half of the
CH4 emissions from agriculture. From
1990 to 1999, emissions from this source
decreased by 2 percent. Emissions from
enteric fermentation have been generally
decreasing since 1995, primarily due to
declining dairy cow and beef cattle pop-
ulations.
Manure Management
(34.4TgC02Eq.)
The decomposition of organic ani-
mal waste in an anaerobic environment
produces CH4. The most important fac-
tor affecting the amount of CH4 pro-
duced is how the manure is managed,
because certain types of storage and
treatment systems promote an oxygen-
free environment. In particular, liquid
systems tend to encourage anaerobic
conditions and produce significant
quantities of CH4, whereas solid waste
management approaches produce little
or no CH4. Higher temperatures and
moist climate conditions also promote
CH4 production.
Emissions from manure management
were about 6 percent of U.S. CH4 emis-
sions in 1999, and 20 percent of the
CH4 emissions from agriculture. From
1990 to 1999, emissions from this
source increased by 8.0 Tg CO2 Eq.—
the largest absolute increase of all the
CH4 source categories. The bulk of this
increase was from swine and dairy cow
manure, and is attributed to the shift in
the composition of the swine and dairy
industries toward larger facilities.
Larger swine and dairy farms tend to use
liquid management systems.
Rice Cultivation
(10.7 Tg C02 Eq.)
Most of the world's rice, and all of
the rice in the United States, is grown
on flooded fields. When fields are
flooded, anaerobic conditions develop
and the organic matter in the soil
decomposes, releasing CH4 to the
atmosphere, primarily through the rice
plants.
In 1999, rice cultivation was the
source of 2 percent of U.S. CH4 emis-
sions, and about 6 percent of U.S. CH4
emissions from agriculture. Emission
estimates from this source have
increased by about 23 percent since
1990, due to an increase in the area har-
vested.
Agricultural Residue Burning
(0.6TgC02Eq.)
Burning crop residue releases a num-
ber of greenhouse gases, including
CH4. Because field burning is not com-
mon in the United States, it was respon-
sible for only 0.1 percent of U.S. CH4
emissions in 1999.
Other Sources
Methane is also produced from sev-
eral other sources in the United States,
including wastewater treatment, fuel
combustion, and some industrial
processes. Methane emissions from
domestic wastewater treatment totaled
12.2 Tg CO2 Eq. in 1999. Stationary
and mobile combustion were responsi-
ble for CH4 emissions of 8.1 and 4.5 Tg
CO2 Eq., respectively. The majority of
emissions from stationary combustion
resulted from the burning of wood in
the residential end-use sector. The com-
bustion of gasoline in highway vehicles
was responsible for the majority of the
CH4 emitted from mobile combustion.
Methane emissions from two industrial
sources—petrochemical and silicon car-
bide production—were also estimated,
totaling 1.7TgCO2 Eq.
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 45
NITROUS OXIDE EMISSIONS
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse
gas that is produced both naturally, from
a wide variety of biological sources in
soil and water, and anthropogenically by
a variety of agricultural, energy-related,
industrial, and waste management activi-
ties. While total N,O emissions are
much smaller than CO2 emissions, N2O
is approximately 310 times more power-
ful than CO2 at trapping heat in the
atmosphere (IPCC 1996b).
During the past two centuries,
atmospheric concentrations of N2O
have risen by approximately 13 percent.
The main anthropogenic activities pro-
ducing N2O in the United States are
agricultural soil management, fuel com-
bustion in motor vehicles, and adipic
and nitric acid production processes
(see Figure 3-17 and Table 3-10).
Agricultural Soil Management
Nitrous oxide is produced naturally
in soils through microbial processes of
nitrification and denitrification. A num-
ber of anthropogenic activities add to
the amount of nitrogen available to be
emitted as N2O by these microbial
processes. These activities may add
nitrogen to soils either directly or indi-
rectly. Direct additions occur through
the application of synthetic and organic
fertilizers,- production of nitrogen-
fixing crops,- the application of livestock
manure, crop residues, and sewage
sludge,- cultivation of high-organic-
content soils,- and direct excretion by
animals onto soil. Indirect additions
result from volatilization and subse-
quent atmospheric deposition, and from
leaching and surface runoff of some of
the nitrogen applied to soils as fertilizer,
livestock manure, and sewage sludge.
In 1999, agricultural soil manage-
ment accounted for 298.3 Tg CO2 Eq.,
or 69 percent, of U.S. N,O emissions.
From 1990 to 1999, emissions from this
source grew by 11 percent as fertilizer
consumption, manure production, and
crop production increased.
Fuel Combustion
Nitrous oxide is a product of the
reaction that occurs between nitrogen
FIGURE 3-17 AND TABLE 3-io U.S. Sources of Nitrous Oxide Emissions (Tg co2 Eq.)
Nitrous oxide accounted for 6 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1999, and
agricultural soil management represented 69 percent of total N20 emissions.
Source
1990
Agricultural Soil Management 269.0
Mobile Combustion 54.3
Nitric Acid 17.8
Manure Management 16.0
Stationary Combustion 13.6
Adipic Acid 18.3
Human Sewage 7.1
Agricultural Residue Burning 0.4
Waste Combustion 0.3
International Bunker Fuels* 1.0
1995 1996
1997
1998 1999
285.4
66.8
19.9
16.4
14.3
20.3
8.2
0.4
0.3
0.9
294.6
65.3
20.7
16.8
14.9
20.8
7.8
0.4
0.3
0.9
299.8
65.2
21.2
17.1
15.0
17.1
7.9
0.4
0.3
1.0
300.3
64.2
20.9
17.2
15.1
7.3
8.1
0.5
0.2
1.0
298.3
63.4
20.2
17.2
15.7
9.0
8.2
0.4
0.2
1.0
396.9 431.9 441.6 444.1 433.7 432.6
* Emissions from international bunker fuels are not included in totals.
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
Agricultural Soil Management
Mobile Sources
Nitric Acid
Manure Management
Stationary Sources 15.7
Adipic Acid | 9.0
N2O as a portion of
all GHG emissions
Human Sewage
Agricultural Residue Burning
Waste Combustion
| 8.2
0.4
0.2
TgC02Eq.in1999
and oxygen during fuel combustion.
Both mobile and stationary combustion
emit N,O. The quantity emitted varies
according to the type of fuel, technol-
ogy, and pollution control device used,
as well as maintenance and operating
practices. For example, catalytic con-
verters installed to reduce motor vehicle
pollution can result in the formation of
N2O.
In 1999, N2O emissions from mobile
combustion totaled 63.4 Tg CO2 Eq.,
or 15 percent of U.S. N2O emissions.
Emissions of N2O from stationary com-
bustion were 15.7 Tg CO, Eq., or 4
percent of U.S. N,O emissions. From
1990 to 1999, combined NO emis-
sions from stationary and mobile com-
bustion increased by 16 percent, prima-
rily due to increased rates of N2O
generation in motor vehicles.
Nitric Acid Production
Nitric acid production is an indus-
trial source of N,O emissions. Used pri-
marily to make synthetic commercial
fertilizer, this raw material is also a
major component in the production of
adipic acid and explosives.
Virtually all of the nitric acid manu-
factured in the United States is produced
by the oxidation of ammonia, during
which N,O is formed and emitted to the
atmosphere. In 1999, N2O emissions
-------
46 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
from nitric acid production were 20.2 Tg
CO2 Eq., or 5 percent of U.S. N2O emis-
sions. From 1990 to 1999, emissions from
this source category increased by 13 per-
cent as nitric acid production grew.
Manure Management
Nitrous oxide is produced as part of
microbial nitrification and denitrifica-
tion processes in managed and unman-
aged manure, the latter of which is
addressed under agricultural soil man-
agement. Total N,O emissions from
managed manure systems in 1999 were
17.2 Tg CO2 Eq., accounting for 4 per-
cent of U.S. N2O emissions. From 1990
to 1999, emissions from this source cat-
egory increased by 7 percent, as poultry
and swine populations have increased.
Adipic Acid Production
Most adipic acid produced in the
United States is used to manufacture
nylon 6,6. Adipic acid is also used to pro-
duce some low-temperature lubricants
and to add a "tangy" flavor to foods.
Nitrous oxide is emitted as a by-product
of the chemical synthesis of adipic acid.
In 1999, U.S. adipic acid plants emit-
ted 9.0 Tg CO2 Eq. of N2O, or 2 percent
of U.S. N2O emissions. Even though
adipic acid production has increased, by
1998 all three major adipic acid plants in
the United States had voluntarily imple-
mented N2O abatement technology. As
a result, emissions have decreased by 51
percent since 1990.
Other Sources
Other sources of N2O included agri-
cultural residue burning, waste combus-
tion, and human sewage in wastewater
treatment systems. In 1999, agricultural
residue burning and municipal solid
waste combustion each emitted less
than 1 Tg CO2 Eq. of N2O. The human
sewage component of domestic waste-
water resulted in emissions of 8.2 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 1999.
HFC, RFC, AND SF6
EMISSIONS
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and
perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are categories
of synthetic chemicals that are being
used as alternatives to the ozone-
depleting substances (ODSs) being
phased out under the Montreal Protocol
and Clean Air Act Amendments of
1990. Because HFCs and PFCs do not
directly deplete the stratospheric ozone
layer, they are not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol.
These compounds, however, along
with sulfur hexafluoride (SFg), are potent
greenhouse gases. In addition to having
high global warming potentials, SFg and
PFCs have extremely long atmospheric
lifetimes, resulting in their essentially
irreversible accumulation in the atmos-
phere. Sulfur hexafluoride is the most
potent greenhouse gas the IPCC has
evaluated.
Other emissive sources of these gases
include aluminum production, HCFC-22
production, semiconductor manufactur-
ing, electrical transmission and distribu-
tion systems, and magnesium production
and processing. Figure 3-18 and Table
3-11 present emission estimates for
HFCs, PFCs, and SF6, which totaled
135.7TgCO2Eq. in 1999.
Substitution of Ozone-
Depleting Substances
The use and subsequent emissions of
HFCs and PFCs as substitutes for ozone-
depleting substances (ODSs) increased
from small amounts in 1990 to 56.7 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 1999. This increase was the
result of efforts to phase out CFCs and
other ODSs in the United States, espe-
cially the introduction of HFC-134a as a
CFC substitute in refrigeration applica-
tions. In the short term, this trend is
expected to continue, and will most
likely accelerate in the next decade as
HCFCs, which are interim substitutes in
many applications, are themselves
phased out under the provisions of the
Copenhagen Amendments to the Mon-
treal Protocol. Improvements in the tech-
nologies associated with the use of these
gases, however, may help to offset this
anticipated increase in emissions.
Other Industrial Sources
HFCs, PFCs, and SFg are also emitted
from a number of other industrial
processes. During the production of pri-
mary aluminum, two PFCs—CF4 and
C2Fg—are emitted as intermittent by-
products of the smelting process. Emis-
sions from aluminum production, which
totaled 10.0 Tg CO2 Eq., were estimated
to have decreased by 48 percent
between 1990 and 1999 due to voluntary
emission reduction efforts by the indus-
try and falling domestic aluminum pro-
duction.
HFC-23 is a by-product emitted dur-
ing the production of HCFC-22. Emis-
sions from this source were 30.4 Tg CO2
Eq. in 1999, and have decreased by 13
percent since 1990. The intensity of
HFC-23 emissions (i.e., the amount of
HFC-23 emitted per kilogram of HCFC-
22 manufactured) has declined signifi-
cantly since 1990, although production
has been increasing.
The semiconductor industry uses
combinations of HFCs. PFCs. SF,, and
' ' 6'
other gases for plasma etching and to
clean chemical vapor deposition tools.
For 1999, it was estimated that the U.S.
semiconductor industry emitted a total
of 6.8 Tg CO, Eq. Emissions from this
source category have increased with the
growth in the semiconductor industry
and the rising intricacy of chip designs.
The primary use of SFg is as a dielec-
tric in electrical transmission and distri-
bution systems. Fugitive emissions of SFg
occur from leaks in and servicing of sub-
stations and circuit breakers, especially
from older equipment. Estimated emis-
sions from this source increased by
25 percent since 1990, to 25.7 Tg CO2
Eq. in 1999.
Finally, SFg is also used as a protec-
tive cover gas for the casting of molten
magnesium. Estimated emissions from
primary magnesium production and
magnesium casting were 6.1 Tg CO2
Eq. in 1999, an increase of 11 percent
since 1990.
Emissions of Ozone-
Depleting Substances
Halogenated compounds were first
emitted into the atmosphere during the
20th century. This family of manmade
compounds includes chlorofluorocar-
bons (CFCs), halons, methyl chloro-
form, carbon tetrachloride, methyl
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 47
FIGURE 3-18 AND TABLE 3-ii U.S. Sources of HFC, PFC, and SF6 Emissions (Tg co2 Eq.)
MFCs, PFCs, and SF6 accounted for 2 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 1999, and substitutes for ozone-depleting substances
comprised 42 percent of all HFC, PFC, and SF6 emissions.
Source
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Substitution of Ozone-Depleting Substances
HCFC-22 Production
Electrical Transmission and Distribution
Aluminum Production
Semiconductor Manufacture
Magnesium Production and Processing
0.9
34.8
20.5
19.3
2.9
5.5
24.0
27.1
25.7
11.2
5.5
5.5
34.0
31.2
25.7
11.6
7.0
5.6
42.1
30.1
25.7
10.8
7.0
7.5
49.6
40.0
25.7
10.1
6.8
6.3
56.7
30.4
25.7
10.0
6.8
6.1
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
Substitution of Ozone-Depleting Substances
HCFC-22 Production
Electrical Transmission and Distribution
Aluminum Production
Semiconductor Manufacture
Magnesium Production and Processing
>Fe as a portion of
TgC02Eq.in1999
bromide, and hydrochlorofluorocar-
bons (HCFCs). These substances have
been used in a variety of industrial
applications, including refrigeration, air
conditioning, foam blowing, solvent
cleaning, sterilization, fire extinguish-
ing, coatings, paints, and aerosols.
Because these compounds have been
shown to deplete stratospheric ozone,
they are typically referred to as ozone-
depleting substances (ODSs). How-
ever, they are also potent greenhouse
gases.
Recognizing the harmful effects of
these compounds on the ozone layer,
181 countries have ratified the Montreal
Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone
Layer to limit the production and
importation of a number of CFCs and
other halogenated compounds. The
United States furthered its commitment
to phase out ODSs by signing and rati-
fying the Copenhagen Amendments to
the Montreal Protocol in 1992. Under
these amendments, the United States
committed to ending the production
and importation of halons by 1994, and
CFCs by 1996.
The IPCC Guidelines and the
United Nations Framework Conven-
tion on Climate Change do not include
reporting instructions for estimating
emissions of ODSs because their use is
being phased out under the Montnal
Protocol The United States believes,
however, that a greenhouse gas emis-
sions inventory is incomplete without
these emissions,- therefore, estimates for
several Class I and Class II ODSs are
provided in Table 3-12. Compounds are
grouped by class according to their
ozone-depleting potential. Class I com-
pounds are the primary ODSs,- Class II
compounds include partially halo-
genated chlorine compounds (i.e.,
HCFCs), some of which were devel-
oped as interim replacements for CFCs.
Because these HCFC compounds are
only partially halogenated, their hydro-
gen-carbon bonds are more vulnerable
to oxidation in the troposphere and,
therefore, pose only one-tenth to one-
hundredth the threat to stratospheric
ozone compared to CFCs.
It should be noted that the effects of
these compounds on radiative forcing
are not provided. Although many
ODSs have relatively high direct global
warming potentials, their indirect
effects from ozone (also a greenhouse
gas) destruction are believed to have
negative radiative-forcing effects and,
therefore, could significantly reduce the
overall magnitude of their radiative-
forcing effects. Given the uncertainties
about the net effect of these gases,
emissions are reported on an
unweighted basis.
-------
48 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
TABLE 3-12 Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances (Gigagrams)
Many ozone-depleting substances have relatively high direct global warming potentials.
However, their indirect effects from ozone (also a greenhouse gas) destruction are believed
to have negative radiative-forcing effects and, therefore, could significantly reduce the
overall magnitude of their radiative-forcing effects. Given the uncertainties about the net
effect of these gases, emissions are reported on an unweighted basis.
Conj££und
Class 1
CFC-11
CFC-12
CFC-113
CFC-114
CFC-115
Carbon Tetrachloride
Methyl Chloroform
Halon-1211
Halon-1301
Class II
HCFC-22
HCFC-123
HCFC-124
HCFC-141b
HCFC-142b
HCFC-225ca/cb
1990
52.4
226.9
39.0
0.7
2.2
25.1
27.9
+
1.0
33.9
+
+
+
+
+
1995
19.1
71.1
7.6
0.8
1.6
5.5
8.7
0.7
1.8
46.2
0.6
5.6
20.6
7.3
+
1996
11.7
72.2
+
0.8
1.6
+
1.6
0.8
1.9
48.8
0.7
5.9
25.4
8.3
+
1997
10.7
63.6
+
0.8
1.4
+
+
0.8
1.9
50.6
0.8
6.2
25.1
8.7
+
1998
9.8
54.9
+
0.6
1.1
+
+
0.8
1.9
52.3
0.9
6.4
26.7
9.0
+
1999
9.2
64.4
+
+
1.1
+
+
0.8
1.9
83.0
1.0
6.5
28.7
9.5
+
+ Does not exceed 0.05 gigagrams.
Source: EPA estimates.
Pulfur dioxide emitted into the atmosphere through natural and anthropogenic processes
Uaffects the Earth's radiative budget through its photochemical transformation into sulfate
aerosols that can (1) scatter sunlight backto space, thereby reducing the radiation reach-
ing the Earth's surface; (2) affect cloud formation; and (3) affect atmospheric chemical com-
position by providing surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions. The overall effect of
SCyderived aerosols on radiative forcing is negative (IPCC 2001 b). However, because S02
is short-lived and unevenly distributed in the atmosphere, its radiative-forcing impacts are
highly uncertain.
Sulfur dioxide is also a contributorto the formation of urban smog, which can cause signif-
icant increases in acute and chronic respiratory diseases. Once S02 is emitted, it is chem-
ically transformed in the atmosphere and returns to the Earth as the primary source of acid
rain. Because of these harmful effects, the United States has regulated S02 emissions in the
Clean Air Act.
Electric utilities are the largest source of S02 emissions in the United States, accounting for
67 percent in 1999. Coal combustion contributes nearly all of those emissions (approxi-
mately 93 percent). Emissions of S02 have decreased in recent years, primarily as a result
of electric utilities switching from high-sulfur to low-sulfur coal and use of flue gas desul-
furization.
CRITERIA POLLUTANT
EMISSIONS
In the United States, carbon monox-
ide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-
methane volatile organic compounds
(NMVOCs), and sulfur dioxide (SO2)
are commonly referred to as "criteria pol-
lutants," as termed in the Clean Air Act.
Criteria pollutants do not have a direct
global warming effect, but indirectly
affect terrestrial radiation absorption by
influencing the formation and destruc-
tion of tropospheric and stratospheric
ozone, or, in the case of SO2, by affect-
ing the absorptive characteristics of the
atmosphere.
Carbon monoxide is produced when
carbon-containing fuels are combusted
incompletely. Nitrogen oxides (i.e., NO
and NOx) are created by lightning, fires,
and fossil fuel combustion and
are created in the stratosphere from
nitrous oxide (N2O). NMVOCs—
which include such compounds as
propane, butane, and ethane—are emit-
ted primarily from transportation, indus-
trial processes, and nonindustrial
consumption of organic solvents. In the
United States, SO2 is primarily emitted
from the combustion of coal by the elec-
tric power industry and by the
metals industry.
In part because of their contribution
to the formation of urban smog—and
acid rain in the case of SO2 and NOx—
criteria pollutants are regulated under
the Clean Air Act. These gases also indi-
rectly affect the global climate by react-
ing with other chemical compounds in
the atmosphere to form compounds that
are greenhouse gases. Unlike other crite-
ria pollutants, SO2 emitted into the
atmosphere is believed to affect the
Earth's radiative budget negatively,-
therefore, it is discussed separately.
One of the most important indirect
climate change effects of NOx and
NMVOCs is their role as precursors for
tropospheric ozone formation. They can
also alter the atmospheric lifetimes of
other greenhouse gases. For example,
CO interacts with the hydroxyl radi-
cal—the major atmospheric sink for
CH. emissions—to form CO..
-------
Greenhouse Gas Inventory i 49
TABLE 3-13 Emissions of NOX, CO, NMVOCs, and S02 (Gg)
Fuel combustion accounts for the majority of emissions of criteria pollutants. Industrial processes — such as the manufacture
allied products, metals processing, and industrial uses of solvents — are also significant sources of CO, NOX, and NMVOCs.
Gas/Activity 1990 ! 1995 1996 1997 1998
™™™™™™™™™™™™™™^
NOX
Stationary Fossil Fuel Combustion
Mobile Fossil Fuel Combustion
Oil and Gas Activities
Industrial Processes
Solvent Use
Agricultural Burning
Waste
CO
Stationary Fossil Fuel Combustion
Mobile Fossil Fuel Combustion
Oil and Gas Activities
Industrial Processes
Solvent Use
Agricultural Burning
Waste
NMVOCs
Stationary Fossil Fuel Combustion
Mobile Fossil Fuel Combustion
Oil and Gas Activities
Industrial Processes
Solvent Use
Agricultural Burning
Waste
S02
Stationary Fossil Fuel Combustion
Mobile Fossil Fuel Combustion
Oil and Gas Activities
Industrial Processes
Solvent Use
Agricultural Burning
Waste
™™™™™™™™™™™™™™™^
21,955 22,755
9,884
10,900
139
921
1
28
83
85,846
4,999
69,523
302
9,502
4
537
979
18,843
912
8,154
555
3,110
5,217
NA
895
21,481
18,407
1,339
390
1,306
0
NA
38
9,822
11,870
100
842
3
28
89
80,678
5,383
68,072
316
5,291
5
536
1,075
18,663
973
7,725
582
2,805
5,609
NA
969
17,408
14,724
1,189
334
1,117
1
NA
43
m™™™™™™™™™™™*™™™,
23,663
9,541
12,893
126
977
3
32
92
87,196
5,620
72,390
321
7,227
1
625
1,012
17,353
971
8,251
433
2,354
4,963
NA
381
17,109
14,727
1,081
304
958
1
NA
37
™™™™™™™™™™™™™™«™
23,934
9,589
13,095
130
992
3
33
92
87,012
4,968
71,225
333
8,831
1
630
1,024
17,586
848
8,023
442
2,793
5,098
NA
382
17,565
15,106
1,116
312
993
1
NA
37
s™™™™™™™™™™™™™*™»
23,613
9,408
13,021
130
924
3
34
93
82,496
4,575
70,288
332
5,612
1
653
1,035
16,554
778
7,928
440
2,352
4,668
NA
387
17,682
15,192
1,145
310
996
1
NA
38
of chemical and
___1999__
23,042
9,070
12,794
130
930
3
33
83
82,982
4,798
68,179
332
5,604
1
629
3,439
16,128
820
7,736
385
2,281
4,376
NA
531
17,115
14,598
1,178
309
996
1
NA
33
+ Does not exceed 0.5 gigagrams.
NA = Not Available.
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
Source: EPA 2000, except for estimates from agricultural residue burning.
Therefore, increased atmospheric con-
centrations of CO limit the number of
hydroxyl molecules (OH) available to
destroy CH4.
Since 1970, the United States has
published estimates of annual emissions
of criteria pollutants (U.S. EPA 2000).16
Table 3-13 shows that fuel combustion
accounts for the majority of emissions of
these gases. Industrial processes, such as
the manufacture of chemical and allied
products, metals processing, and indus-
trial uses of solvents, are also significant
sources of CO, NO , and NMVOCs.
and CO emission estimates from agricultural residue burning were estimated separately and, therefore, not taken from U.S. EPA 2000.
-------
Chapter 4
Policies
and Measures
In the past decade, the United States
has made significant progress in
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In
2000 alone, U.S. climate change pro-
grams reduced the growth in greenhouse
gas emissions by 242 teragrams of carbon
dioxide equivalent1 (Tg CO2 Eq.) (see
Table 4-1 at the end of this chapter).
They have also significantly helped the
United States reduce carbon intensity,
which is the amount of CO2 emitted per
unit of gross domestic product .
While many policies and measures
developed in the 1990s continue to
achieve their goals, recent changes in the
economy and in energy markets, coupled
with the introduction of new science and
technology, create a need to re-evaluate
existing climate change programs to
ensure they effectively meet future eco-
nomic, climate, and other environmental
Emissions are expressed in units of CO2 equivalents for
consistency in international reporting under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
One teragram is equal to one million metric tons.
-------
Policies and Measures i 51
goals. Our experience with greenhouse
gas emissions highlights the importance
of creating climate policy within the con-
text of the overall economy, changing
energy markets, technology develop-
ment and deployment, and R&D priori-
ties. Because global warming is a
long-term problem, solutions need to be
long lasting.
The U.S. government is currently
pursuing a broad range of strategies to
reduce net emissions of greenhouse
gases. In addition, businesses, state and
local governments, and nongovernmen-
tal organizations (NGOs) are address-
ing global climate change by improving
the measurement and reporting of
greenhouse gas emission reductions,- by
voluntarily reducing emissions, includ-
ing using emission trading systems,- and
by sequestering carbon through tree
planting and forest preservation,
restoration, conversion of eroding
cropland to permanent cover, and soil
management.
NATIONAL POLICYMAKING
PROCESS
Shortly after taking office in January
2001, President Bush directed a Cabinet-
level review of U.S. climate change
policy and programs. The President
established working groups and
requested them to develop innovative
approaches that would:
» be consistent with the goal of stabi-
lizing greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere,-
* be sufficiently flexible to allow for
new findings,-
» support continued economic growth
and prosperity,-
* provide market-based incentives,-
» incorporate technological advances,-
and
» promote global participation.
Members of the Cabinet, the Vice
President, and senior White House staff
extensively reviewed and discussed cli-
mate science, existing technologies to
reduce greenhouse gases and sequester
carbon, current U.S. programs and poli-
cies, and innovative options for address-
ing concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere. They were assisted
by a number of scientific, technical, and
policy experts from the federal govern-
ment, national laboratories, universities,
NGOs, and the private sector. To obtain
the most recent information and a bal-
anced view of the current state of climate
change science, the Cabinet group asked
the National Academy of Sciences
(NAS) to issue a report addressing areas
of scientific consensus and significant
gaps in our climate change knowledge
(NRC 200la). Appendix D of this report
presents key questions posed by the
Committee on the Science of Climate
Change, along with the U.S. National
Research Council's responses.
On June 11, 2001, the President
issued the interim report of the Cabi-
net-level review (EOP 2001). Based on
the NAS report (NRC 200la) and the
Cabinet's findings, President Bush
directed the Department of Commerce,
working with other federal agencies, to
set priorities for additional investments
in climate change research, to review
such investments, and to maximize
coordination among federal agencies to
advance the science of climate change.
The President is committed to fully
funding all priority research areas that
the review finds are underfunded or
need to be accelerated relative to other
research. Such areas could include the
carbon and global water cycles and cli-
mate modeling.
The President further directed the
Secretaries of Commerce and Energy,
working with other federal agencies, to
develop a National Climate Change
Technology Initiative with the follow-
ing major objectives:
» Evaluate the current state of U.S. cli-
mate change technology R&D and
make recommendations for improve-
ments.
» Develop opportunities to enhance
private-public partnerships in ap-
plied R&D to expedite innovative
in II Net If
The U.S. government is currently pursuing a broad range of strategies to reduce net emis-
sions of greenhouse gases.
Electricity
Federal programs promote greenhouse gas reductions through the development of
cleaner, more efficient technologies for electricity generation and transmission. The
government also supports the development of renewable resources, such as solar ener-
gy, wind power, geothermal energy, hydropower, bioenergy, and hydrogen fuels.
Transportation
Federal programs promote development of fuel-efficient motor vehicles and trucks,
research and development options for producing cleaner fuels, and implementation of
programs to reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled.
Industry
Federal programs implement partnership programs with industry to reduce emissions of
carbon dioxide (C02) and other greenhouse gases, promote source reduction and recy-
cling, and increase the use of combined heat and power.
Buildings
Federal voluntary partnership programs promote energy efficiency in the nation's com-
mercial, residential, and government buildings (including schools) by offering technical
assistance as well as the labeling of efficient products, new homes, and office buildings.
Agriculture and Forestry
The U.S. government implements conservation programs that have the benefit of
reducing agricultural emissions, sequestering carbon in soils, and offsetting overall
greenhouse gas emissions.
Federal Government
The U.S. government has taken steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy
use in federal buildings and in the federal transportation fleet.
-------
52 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Many U.S. climate change programs have been highly successful at stimulating partici-
pation and achieving measurable energy and cost savings, as well as reducing green-
house gas emissions.*
• Minimum efficiency standards on residential appliances have saved consumers near-
ly $25 billion through 1999, avoiding cumulative emissions by an amount equal to
almost 180Tg C02 Eq. Four pending appliance standards (clothes washers, fluorescent
light ballasts, water heaters, and central air conditioners) are projected to save con-
sumers up to $10 billion and reduce cumulative emissions by as much as 80 Tg C02 Eq.
through 2010.
• The ENERGY STAR® program promotes energy efficiency in U.S. homes and commercial
buildings. It has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by more than 55 Tg C02 Eq. in 2000
alone, and is projected to increase this amount to about 160Tg C02 Eq. a year by 2010.
• Public-private partnership programs have contributed to the decline in methane emis-
sions since 1990, and are expected to hold emissions at or below 1990 levels through
2010 and beyond. Partners in the methane programs have reduced methane emissions
by about 35 Tg C02 Eq. in 2000 and are projected to reduce emissions by 55 Tg C02 Eq.
annually by 2010.
• Programs designed to halt the growth in emissions of the most potent greenhouse
gases—the "high global warming potential (GWP) gases"—are achieving significant
progress. These programs reduced high-GWP emissions by more than 70 Tg C02 Eq. in
2000 and are projected to reduce emissions by more than 280 Tg C02 Eq. annually by
2010.
• Federal, state, and local outreach has allocated nearly $10 million in grants and other
awards since 1992 for 41 state greenhouse gas emission inventories, 27 state action
plans, 16 demonstration projects, and 32 educational and outreach programs. Across
the nation, 110 cities and counties, representing approximately 44 million people, are
developing inventories and implementing climate change action plans.
* There is uncertainty in any attempt to project future emission levels and program impacts from whatwould have
happened in the absence of these programs. These projections represent a best estimate. They are also based on
the assumption that programs will continue to be funded at current funding levels.
and cost-effective approaches to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and the buildup of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere.
Make recommendations for funding
demonstration projects for cutting-
edge technologies.
Provide guidance on strengthening
basic research at universities and
national laboratories, including the
development of the advanced miti-
gation technologies that offer the
greatest promise for low-cost reduc-
tions of greenhouse gas emissions
and global warming potential.
Make recommendations to enhance
coordination across federal agencies,
and among the federal government,
universities, and the private sector.
Make recommendations for devel-
oping improved technologies for
measuring and monitoring gross and
net greenhouse gas emissions.
Simultaneous with the President's
climate change policy development is
the implementation of the May 2001
National Energy Policy (NEPD Group
2001).2 Developed under the leader-
ship of Vice President Cheney, the
National Energy Policy is a long-term,
comprehensive strategy to advance the
development of new, environmentally
friendly technologies to increase
energy supplies and encourage cleaner,
more efficient energy use
The National Energy Policy identified a
number of major energy challenges and
contains 105 specific recommendations
for dealing with them, many of which
affect greenhouse gas emissions. For
example, it promotes energy efficiency
by calling for the intelligent use of
new technologies and information
dissemination,- confronts our increasing
dependency on foreign sources of
energy by calling for increased domestic
production with advanced technologies,-
and addresses our increasing reliance on
natural gas by paving the way for a
greater balance among many energy
sources, including renewable energy but
also traditional sources, such as
hydropower and nuclear energy. In addi-
tion, the National Energy Policy initiated a
comprehensive technology review to re-
prioritize energy R&D. The review,
which is currently underway, is critically
evaluating the research, development,
demonstration, and deployment portfo-
lio for energy efficiency, renewable
energy, and alternative energy technolo-
gies as they apply to the buildings, trans-
portation, industry, power generation,
and government sectors.
FEDERAL POLICIES
AND MEASURES
The United States recognizes that
climate change is a serious problem, and
has devoted significant resources to cli-
mate change programs and activities
(Table 4-2). This section summarizes the
progress of existing federal climate
change programs, including new policies
and measures not described in the
1997 U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR), and
actions described in the 1997 CAR that
are no longer ongoing (U.S. DOS
1997). Many of these programs have
evolved substantially since the 1997
CAR, which is reflected in individual
program descriptions. Although origi-
nally focused on important early reduc-
tions by the year 2000, the programs
are building emission reductions that
grow over time and provide even larger
benefits in later years. In addition, the
Cabinet-level climate change working
group is continuing its review and is
developing other approaches to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, including
those that tap the power of the markets,
help realize the promise of technology,
and ensure the broadest possible global
participation.
2 Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy
-------
Policies and Measures i 53
TABLE 4-2 Summary of Federal Climate Change Expenditures: 1999-2001
(Millions of Dollars)
Since the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report, the United States has reassessed ongoing activ-
ities for their direct and indirect impacts on greenhouse emissions. This table summarizes
the funding across a portion of these activities, which includes a range of research and
development on energy efficiency and renewable energy, as well as setting efficiency stan-
dards.
TypesofPrograms
FY1999
FY 2000
FY2001
Estimate
Directly Related Programs & Policies 1,009
Other Climate-Related Programs 685
1,095
698
1,239
946
Note: Funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, International Assistance, and the Global Environment
Facility is described in later chapters and is not included in this total.
Source: OMB 2001.
Federal partnership programs pro-
mote improved energy efficiency and
increased use of renewable energy tech-
nologies in the nation's commercial, res-
idential, and government buildings
(including schools) by offering technical
assistance as well as the labeling of effi-
cient products, efficient new homes, and
efficient buildings. The U.S. govern-
ment is implementing a number of part-
nership programs with industry to
reduce CO2 emissions, increase the use
of combined heat and power, and pro-
mote the development of cleaner, more
efficient technologies for electricity gen-
eration and transmission. The federal
government is also supporting renew-
able resources, such as solar energy,
wind power, geothermal energy,
hydropower, bioenergy, and hydrogen
fuels. In addition, the U.S. government's
commitment to advanced research and
development in the areas of energy effi-
ciency, renewable energy, alternative
energy technologies, and nuclear energy
will play a central role in an effective
long-term response to climate change.
Energy: Residential
and Commercial
Residential and commercial buildings
account for approximately 35 percent of
U.S. CO, emissions from energy use.
Electricity consumption for lighting,
heating, cooling, and operating appli-
ances accounts for the majority of these
emissions. Many commercial buildings
and new homes could effectively oper-
ate with 30 percent less energy if owners
made investments in energy-efficient
products, technologies, and best man-
agement practices. Federal partnership
programs promote these investments
through a market-based approach, using
labeling to clearly identify which prod-
ucts, practices, new homes, and build-
ings are energy efficient. The United
States also funds significant research on
developing highly efficient building
equipment and appliances. Following
are descriptions of some of the key poli-
cies and measures in this area.
ENERGY STAR® for the
Commercial Market
This program has evolved substan-
tially since the last CAR. Its major focus
now is on promoting high-performing
(high-efficiency) buildings and provid-
ing decision makers throughout an
organization with the information they
need to undertake effective building
improvement projects. While the part-
nership continues to work with more
than 5,500 organizations across the
country, this program also introduced a
system in 1999 that allows the bench-
marking of building energy perform-
ance against the national stock of
buildings. As recommended in the
National Energy Policy, this system is
being expanded to represent additional
major U.S. building types, such as
schools (K-12), grocery stores, hotels,
hospitals, and warehouses. By the end of
2001, more than 75 percent of U.S.
building stock could use this system.
The national building energy perform-
ance rating system also allows for recog-
nizing the highest-performing buildings,
which can earn the ENERGY STAR® label.
EPA estimates that ENERGY STAR® in the
commercial building sector provided 23
Tg CO2 Eq. reductions in 2000, and
projects it will provide 62 Tg CO2 Eq.
reductions by 2010.
Commercial Buildings Integration
This program continues to work to
realize energy-saving opportunities pro-
vided by the whole-building approach
during the construction and major reno-
vation of existing commercial buildings.
The program is increasing its industry
partnerships in design, construction,
operation and maintenance, indoor envi-
ronment, and control and diagnostics of
heating, ventilation, air conditioning,
lighting, and other building systems.
Through these efforts, the Department
of Energy (DOE) helps transfer the most
energy-efficient building techniques and
practices into commercial buildings
through regulatory activities, such as
supporting the upgrade of voluntary
(model) building energy codes and
promulgating upgraded federal commer-
cial building energy codes. The program
consists of Updating State Building Codes
and Partnerships for Commercial Buildings and
Facilities, and is supported by a number of
DOE programs, such as Commercial Build-
ing R&D.
ENERGY STAR® for the
Residential Market
This program has expanded signifi-
cantly since the last CAR when it was
focused on new home construction. It
now also provides guidance for home-
owners on designing efficiency into
kitchen, additions, and whole-home
improvement projects and works with
major retailers and other organizations
to help educate the public. In addition,
it offers a Web-based audit tool and a
home energy benchmark tool to help
the homeowner implement a project
and monitor progress. Builders have
-------
54 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
constructed more than 55,000 ENERGY
STAR -labeled new homes in the
United States, at a pace that has dou-
bled each year. These homes are aver-
aging energy savings of about 35
percent better than the model energy
code. The Environmental Protection
Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY SiAR®-labeled
homes and home improvement effort
are expected to provide about 20 Tg
CO, Eq. in emission reductions in
2010.
Community Energy Program:
Rebuild America
This program continues to help
communities, towns, and cities save
energy, create jobs, promote growth,
and protect the environment through
improved energy efficiency and sustain-
able building design and operation. The
centerpiece of this newly consolidated
program is Rebuild America—a program
that assists states and communities in
developing and implementing environ-
mentally and economically sound activ-
ities through smarter energy use. The
program provides one-stop shopping
for information and assistance on how
to plan, finance, implement, and man-
age retrofit projects to improve energy
efficiency. As of May 2001, Rebuild
America formed 340 partnerships com-
mitted to performing energy retrofits,
which are complete or underway on
approximately 550 million square feet
of building space in the 50 states and
two U.S. territories.
Residential Building Integration:
Building America
This program represents the consoli-
dation of a number of initiatives. It
works with industry to jointly fund,
develop, demonstrate, and deploy hous-
ing that integrates energy-efficiency
technologies and practices. The Energy
Partnerships for Affordable Housing consoli-
dates the formerly separate systems
engineering programs of Building America,
Industrialized Housing, Passive Solar Buildings,
Indoor Air Quality, and existing building
research into a comprehensive program.
Systems integration research and devel-
opment activities analyze building com-
ponents and systems and integrate them
so that the overall building performance
is greater than the sum of its parts. Build-
ing America is a private-public partner-
ship that provides energy solutions for
production housing and combines the
knowledge and resources of industry
leaders with DOE's technical capabili-
ties to act as a catalyst for change in the
home building industry.
ENERGY STAR®-Labeled Products
The strategy of this program has
evolved substantially since the last CAR,
not only with the addition of new prod-
ucts to the ENERGY STAR® family, but also
with expanded outreach to consumers in
partnership with their local utility or
similar organization. The ENERGY STAR®
label has been expanded to more than
30 product categories and, as recom-
mended in the President's National Energy
Policy, EPA and DOE are currently work-
ing to expand the program to additional
products and appliances. ENERGY STAR®
works in partnership with utilities repre-
senting about 50 percent of U.S. energy
customers. The ENERGY STAR® label is
now recognized by more than 40 per-
cent of U.S. consumers, who have pur-
chased over 600 million ENERGY STAR®
products. Due to the increased penetra-
tion of these energy-efficient products,
EPA estimates that 33 Tg CO2 Eq. of
emissions were avoided in 2000 and
projects that 75 Tg CO2 Eq. will be
reduced in 2010.
Building Equipment,
Materials, and Tools
This program conducts R&D on
building components and design tools
and issues standards and test proce-
dures for a variety of appliances and
equipment. Sample building compo-
nents that increase the energy effi-
ciency of buildings and improve
building performance include innova-
tive lighting, advanced space condi-
tioning and refrigeration, and fuel cells.
The program also conducts R&D on
building envelope technologies, such as
advanced windows, coatings, and insu-
lation. It is improving analytical tools
that effectively integrate all elements
affecting building energy use and help
building designers, owners, and opera-
tors develop the best design strategies
for new and existing buildings.
Additional Policies and Measures
Additional ongoing policies and
measures in the residential and com-
mercial sector include Residential Appli-
ance Standards, State and Community
Assistance (State Energy Program, Weather-
ization Assistance Program, Community
Energy Grants, Information Outreach), Heat
Island Reduction Initiative, and Economic
Incentives/Tax Credits. Appendix B pro-
vides detailed descriptions of policies
and measures.
Two policies and measures listed as
new initiatives in the 1997 CAR no
longer appear as separate programs.
Expand Markets for Next-Generation Lighting
Products and Construction of Energy-Efficient
Buildings have been incorporated into
other existing climate programs at
DOE and EPA.
Energy: Industrial
About 27 percent of U.S. CO2 emis-
sions result from industrial activities.
The primary source of these emissions
is the burning of carbon-based fuels,
either on site in manufacturing plants or
through the purchase of generated elec-
tricity. Many manufacturing processes
use more energy than is necessary. The
following programs help to improve
industrial productivity by lowering
energy costs, providing innovative
manufacturing methods, and reducing
waste and emissions.
Industries of the Future
This program continues to work in
partnership with the nation's most
energy-intensive industries, enhancing
their long-term competitiveness and
accelerating research, development,
and deployment of technologies that
increase energy and resource efficiency.
Led by DOE, the program's strategy is
being implemented in nine energy- and
waste-intensive industries. Two key ele-
ments of the strategy include: (1) an
industry-driven report outlining each
industry's vision for the future, and (2) a
-------
Policies and Measures i 55
technology roadmap to identify the
technologies that will be needed to
reach that industry's goals.
Best Practices Program
This program offers industry the
tools to improve plant energy effi-
ciency, enhance environmental per-
formance, and increase productivity.
Selected best-of-class large demonstra-
tion plants are showcased across the
country, while other program activities
encourage the replication of those best
practices in still greater numbers of
large plants.
ENERGY STAR® for Industry
This new initiative integrates and
builds upon the Climate Wise program and
offers a more comprehensive partnership
for industrial companies. ENERGY STAR®
will enable industrial companies to eval-
uate and cost-effectively reduce their
energy use. Through established energy
performance benchmarks, strategies for
improving energy performance, techni-
cal assistance, and recognition for
accomplishing reductions in energy, the
partnership will contribute to a reduc-
tion in energy use for the U.S. industrial
sector. EPA estimates that awareness
focused by Climate Wise reduced emis-
sions by 11 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000, and
projects that ENERGY STAR®'S industrial
partnerships will provide 16 Tg CO, Eq.
reductions in 2010.
Additional Policies and Measures
Additional ongoing policies and
measures in the industrial sector include
Industrial Assessment Centers, Enabling Tech-
nologies, and Financial Assistance: MICE3.
Appendix B provides detailed descrip-
tions of policies and measures.
Energy: Supply
Electricity generation is responsible
for about 41 percent of CO, emissions
in the United States. Federal programs
promote greenhouse gas reductions
through the development of cleaner,
more efficient technologies for electric-
ity generation and transmission. The
U.S. government is also supporting
renewable resources, such as solar
energy, wind power, geothermal energy,
hydropower, bioenergy, and hydrogen
fuels, as well as traditional nonemitting
sources, such as nuclear energy. DOE's
development programs have been very
successful in reducing technology imple-
mentation costs. The cost of producing
photovoltaic modules has decreased by
50 percent since 1991, and the cost of
wind power has decreased by 85 percent
since 1980. Commercial success has
been achieved for both of these areas in
certain applications.
Renewable Energy
Commercialization
This program consists of several pro-
grams to develop clean, competitive
renewable energy technologies, includ-
ing wind, solar, geothermal, and bio-
mass. Renewable technologies use
naturally occurring energy sources to
produce electricity, heat, fuel, or a com-
bination of these energy types. The
program also works to achieve tax
incentives for renewable energy pro-
duction and use. Some individual high-
lights follow.
Wind Energy. Use of wind energy is
growing rapidly. Technologies under
development by DOE and its partners
can enable a twenty-fold or more
expansion of usable wind resources and
make wind energy viable without feder-
al incentives. DOE will continue devel-
oping next-generation wind turbines
able to produce power at 3.0 cents per
kilowatt-hour in good wind regions,
with the goal of having such turbines
commercially available from U.S. man-
ufacturers in 2004.
Solar Energy. Over the past 20 years,
federal R&D has resulted in an 80 per-
cent cost reduction in solar photo-
voltaics.
Geothermal Energy. The Annual
Outlook 2002 estimates geothermal ener-
gy will provide 5,300 megawatts of
generating capacity by 2020 (U.S.
DOE 200 la). However, geothermal
could provide 25,000-50,000 mega-
watts from currently identified
hydrothermal resources if the technolo-
gy existed to develop those resources at
a reasonable cost. DOE's R&D program
is working in partnership with U.S.
industry to establish geothermal energy
as an economically competitive con-
tributor to the U.S. energy supply.
Biopower. DOE is testing and demon-
strating biomass co-firing with coal,
developing advanced technologies for
biomass gasification, developing and
demonstrating small modular systems,
and developing and testing high-yield,
low-cost biomass feedstocks.
Climate Challenge
This program is a joint, voluntary
effort of the electric utility industry and
DOE to reduce, avoid, or sequester
greenhouse gases. Established as a
Foundation Action under the 1993 Cli-
mate Change Action Plan, electric utilities
developed Participation Accords with
DOE to identify and implement cost-
effective activities (EOP 1993). The
program has now grown to include par-
ticipation by over 650 utilities account-
ing for more than 70 percent of the
sector's MWh production and CO2
emissions. The Bush Administration
and its industry partners are now con-
sidering successor efforts, building
upon the experience and learning
gained in the this program and in
related industry-wide efforts.
Distributed Energy Resources
Distributed energy resources (DER)
describe a variety of smaller electricity-
generating options well suited for place-
ment in homes, offices, and factories or
near these facilities. The program
focuses on technology development and
the elimination of regulatory and institu-
tional barriers to the use of DER, includ-
ing interconnection to the utility grid
and environmental siting and permit-
ting. Distributed systems include com-
bined cooling, heating, and power
systems,- biomass-based generators,-
combustion turbines,- concentrating
solar power and photovoltaic systems,-
fuel cells,- microturbines,- engines/genera-
tor sets,- and wind turbine storage and
-------
56 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
control technologies. The program part-
ners with industry to apply a wide array
of technologies and integration strate-
gies for on-site use, as well as for
grid-enhancing systems. Successful
deployment of DER technologies affects
the industrial, commercial, institutional,
and residential sectors of the U.S. econ-
omy—in effect, all aspects of the energy
value chain.
High-Temperature
Superconductivity
High-temperature superconductors
conduct electricity with high efficiency
when cooled to liquid nitrogen temper-
atures. This program supports industry-
led projects to capitalize on recent
breakthroughs in superconducting wire
technology, aimed at developing such
devices as advanced motors, power
cables, and transformers. These tech-
nologies would allow more electricity
to reach consumers and perform useful
work with no increase in fossil CO2
emissions.
Hydrogen Program
This program's mission is to advance
and support the development of cost-
competitive hydrogen technologies and
systems that will reduce the environ-
mental impacts of energy use and
enable the penetration of renewable
energy into the U.S. energy mix. The
program has four strategies to carry out
its objective: (1) expand the use of
hydrogen fuels in the near term by
working with industry, including
hydrogen producers, to improve effi-
ciency, lower emissions, and lower the
cost of technologies that produce
hydrogen from natural gas for distrib-
uted filling stations,- (2) work with fuel
cell manufacturers to develop hydro-
gen-based electricity storage and gen-
eration systems that will enhance the
introduction and penetration of distrib-
uted, renewables-based utility systems,-
(3) coordinate with the Department of
Defense and DOE's Office of Trans-
portation Technologies to demonstrate
safe and cost-effective fueling systems
for hydrogen vehicles in urban non-
attainment areas and to provide
onboard hydrogen storage systems,- and
(4) work with the national laboratories
to lower the cost of technologies that
produce hydrogen directly from sun-
light and water.
Clean Energy Initiative
Through its new Clean Energy Initia-
tive that has resulted from the President's
National Energy Polity, EPA is promoting a
variety of technologies, practices, and
policies with the goal of reducing green-
house gas emissions associated with the
energy supply sector. The initiative has a
three-pronged strategy: (1) expand mar-
kets for renewable energy,- (2) work with
state and local governments to develop
policies that favor clean energy,- and (3)
facilitate combined heat and power and
other clean "distributed generation"
technologies in targeted sectors. Within
this initiative, the United States has
launched two new partnership pro-
grams—the Green Power Partnership and
the Combined Heat and Power Partnership.
EPA projects these efforts will spur new
investments that will avoid about 30 Tg
CO, Eq. emissions in 2010.
Nuclear Energy
The Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization
program is working to further improve
the efficiency and reliability of existing
nuclear power plants, up to and beyond
the end of their original operating
licenses. It works to resolve open issues
related to plant aging and applies new
technologies to improve plant reliability,
availability, and productivity, while main-
taining high levels of safety. DOE also
supports Next-Generation Nuclear Energy
Systems through two programs: the
Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) and
the Generation IV Initiative. NERI funds
small-scale research efforts on promising
advanced nuclear energy system con-
cepts, in areas that will promote novel
next-generation, proliferation-resistant
reactor designs, advanced nuclear fuel
development, and fundamental nuclear
science. The Generation IV Initiative is cur-
rently preparing a technology roadmap
that will set forth a plan for large-scale
research, development, and demonstra-
tion of promising advanced reactor con-
cepts. Research and development will be
conducted to increase fuel lifetime, estab-
lish or improve material compatibility,
improve safety performance, reduce sys-
tem cost, effectively incorporate passive
safety features, enhance system reliabil-
ity, and achieve a high degree of prolifer-
ation resistance.
Carbon Sequestration
Carbon sequestration is one of the
potentially lowest-cost approaches for
reducing CO2 emissions. This DOE pro-
gram develops the applied science and
demonstrates new technologies for
addressing cost-effective, ecologically
sound management of CO2 emissions
from the production and use of fossil
fuels through capture, reuse, and seques-
tration. Its goal is to make sequestration
options available by 2015. The pro-
gram's technical objectives include
reducing the cost of carbon sequestra-
tion and capture from energy production
activities,- establishing the technical,
environmental, and economic feasibility
of carbon sequestration using a variety of
storage sites and fossil energy systems,-
determining the environmental accept-
ability of large-scale CO2 storage,- and
developing technologies that produce
valuable commodities from CO2 reuse.
Additional Policies and Measures
Additional ongoing policies and
measures in the energy supply sector
include the Hydropower Program, Interna-
tional Programs, and Economic Incentives/Tax
Credits. Appendix B provides detailed
descriptions of policies and measures.
The program to Promote Seasonal Gas
Usefor the Control of Nitrogen Oxides, which
was projected in the 1997 CAR to have
no reductions in 2010 below baseline
forecasts, is no longer included. ENERGY
STAR® Transformers has been incorporated
into ENERGY SiAR®-labeled products.
Transportation
Cars, trucks, buses, aircraft, and
other parts of the nation's transporta-
tion system are responsible for about
one-third of U.S. CO2 emissions. Emis-
sions from transportation are growing
rapidly as Americans drive more and
-------
Policies and Measures i 57
use less fuel-efficient sport-utility and
other large vehicles. The United States
is currently promoting the development
of fuel-efficient motor vehicles and
trucks, researching options for produc-
ing cleaner fuels, and implementing
programs to reduce the number of vehi-
cle miles traveled. Furthermore, many
communities are developing innovative
ways to reduce congestion and trans-
portation energy needs by improving
highway designs and urban planning,
and by encouraging mass transit.
FreedomCAR Research Partnership
This new public—private partnership
with the nation's automobile manufactur-
ers promotes the development of hydro-
gen as a primary fuel for cars and trucks.
It will focus on the long-term research
needed to develop hydrogen from
domestic renewable sources and tech-
nologies that utilize hydrogen, such as
fuel cells. FmdomCAR replaces and builds
on the Partnership for a Mew Generation of
Vehicles (PNGV) program. The transition
of vehicles from gasoline to hydrogen is
viewed as critical to reducing both CO2
emissions and U.S. reliance on foreign
oil. FreedomCAR will focus on technolo-
gies to enable mass production of afford-
able hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles
and the hydrogen-supply infrastructure
to support them. It also will support
selected interim technologies that have
the potential to dramatically reduce oil
consumption and environmental impacts
in the nearer term, and/or are applicable
to fuel cell and hybrid approaches—e.g.,
batteries, electronics, and motors.
Innovative Vehicle Technologies
and Alternative Fuels
DOE funds research, development,
and deployment of technologies that
can significantly alter current trends in
oil consumption. Commercialization of
innovative vehicle technologies and
alternative fuels is the nation's best
strategy for reducing its reliance on oil.
These advanced technologies could
also result in dramatic reductions of
criteria pollutants and greenhouse
gas emissions from the transportation
sector. DOE's Vehicle Systems R&D
funds research and development
for advanced power-train-technology
(direct-injection) engines, hybrid-
electric drive systems, advanced batter-
ies, fuel cells, and lightweight materials
for alternative fuels (including ethanol
from biomass, natural gas, methanol,
electricity, and biodiesel). The Clean
Cities program works to deploy alterna-
tive-fuel vehicles and build supporting
infrastructure, including community
networks. And the Biqfuels Program
researches, develops, demonstrates, and
facilitates the commercialization of
biomass-based, environmentally sound,
cost-competitive U.S. technologies to
develop clean fuels for transportation.
EPA Voluntary Initiatives
EPA supports a number of voluntary
initiatives designed to reduce emissions
of greenhouse gases and criteria pollu-
tants from the transportation sector.3
Although many of these EPA initiatives
generally fall under broader existing
interagency transportation programs,
EPAs efforts greatly increase the adop-
tion in the market of the transportation
strategies that have the potential to
significantly reduce emissions of green-
house gases. In addition to the initia-
tives and brief descriptions that follow,
EPA is working with existing programs
to further reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions and criteria pollutants in areas
including congestion mitigation, transit
demand-management strategies, and
alternative transportation.
Commuter Options Programs.
Commuter Choice Leadership Initiative is a
voluntary employer-adopted program
that increases commuter flexibility by
expanding mode options, using flexible
scheduling, and increasing work loca-
tion choices. Parking Cash-Out offers
employees the option to receive taxable
income in lieu of free or subsidized park-
ing, and Transit Check offers nontaxable
transit benefits, currently up to $100
monthly. EPA estimates emission reduc-
tions of 3.5 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000 and
projects reductions of 14 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2010 from these and other Commuter
Options programs.
Smart Growth and Brownfields Policies.
These programs, such as the Air-
Brownfields Pilot Program, demonstrate the
extent to which brownfields redevelop-
ment and local land use policies can
reduce the growth rate of vehicle miles
traveled. EPA estimates reductions of
2.7 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000 and projects
almost 11 Tg CO2 Eq. will be avoided
in 2010 from these policies.
Ground Freight Transportation Initiative.
This voluntary program is aimed at
reducing emissions from the freight sec-
tor through the implementation of
advanced management practices and
efficient technologies. EPA projects this
program will reduce emissions by 18 Tg
CO2Eq. in 2010.
Clean Automotive Technology. This
program includes research activities and
partnerships with the automotive indus-
try to develop advanced clean, fuel-
efficient automotive technology. EPA is
collaborating with its industry partners
to transfer the unique efficient hybrid
engine and power-train components,
originally developed for passenger car
applications, to meet the more demand-
ing size, performance, durability and
towing requirements of sport-utility and
urban-delivery vehicle applications,
while being practical and affordable with
ultra-low emissions and ultra-high fuel
efficiency. The successful technology
development under this program has laid
the foundation for cost-effective com-
mercialization of high-fuel-economy/
low-emission vehicles for delivery to
market, with an aim toward putting a
pilot fleet of vehicles on the road by the
end of the decade.
DOT Emission-Reducing Initiatives
The U.S. Department of Transporta-
tion (DOT) provides funding for and
oversees transportation projects and
programs that are implemented by the
states and metropolitan areas across the
country. Although these activities are
not designed specifically as climate
These initiatives replace the Transportation Partners
Programs.
-------
58 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
programs, highway funds are used for
projects that may have significant ancil-
lary benefits for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, such as transit and pedestrian
improvements, bikeways, ride-sharing
programs, and other transportation
demand-management projects, as well as
system improvements on the road net-
work. It is very difficult to estimate the
amount of greenhouse gas emission
reductions from these programs, since
project selection is left to the individual
states and metropolitan areas, and reduc-
tions will vary among projects. Some sig-
nificant DOT programs that are likely to
have ancillary greenhouse gas benefits
follow.
Transit Programs. Funded at about $6.8
billion per year, these programs will
likely reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by carrying more people per gallon of
fuel consumed than those driving alone
in their automobiles.
Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality
Improvement. This program is targeted
at reducing criteria pollutants and pro-
vides about $ 1.3 5 billion per year to the
states to fund new transit services, bicy-
cle and pedestrian improvements, alter-
native fuel projects, and traffic flow
improvements that will likely reduce
greenhouse gases as well.
Additional Policies and Measures
Appendix B describes Transportation
Enhancements, the Transportation and Com-
munity System Preservation Pilot Program,
and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Stan-
dards. The Fuel Economy Labels for Tires
program, which was listed in the 1997
CAR, was never implemented and is no
longer included.
Industry (Non-C02)
Although CO2 accounts for the
largest share of U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions, non-CO2 greenhouse gases
have significantly higher global warming
potentials. For example, over a 100-year
time horizon, methane is more than 20
times more effective than CO2 at trap-
ping heat in the atmosphere, nitrous
oxide is about 300 times more effective,
and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are 100
to 12,000 times more effective. In addi-
tion, perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur
hexafluoride (SFg) also have extremely
long atmospheric lifetimes.
Methane and Industry
U.S. industry works in concert with
the federal government through a vari-
ety of voluntary partnerships that are
directed toward eliminating market bar-
riers to the profitable collection and use
of methane that otherwise would be
released to the atmosphere. Collec-
tively, EPA projects these programs will
hold methane emissions below 1990
levels through and beyond 2010.
Natural Gas STAR. Since its launch in
1993, Natural Gas STAR has been a suc-
cessful means of limiting methane emis-
sions. In 2000, it was expanded to the
processing sector and included compa-
nies representing 40 percent of U.S. nat-
ural gas production, 72 percent of
transmission company pipeline miles, 49
percent of distribution company service
connections, and 23 percent of process-
ing throughput. EPA estimates the pro-
gram reduced methane emissions by 15
Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000. Because of the pro-
gram's expanded reach, EPA projects the
estimated reduction for 2010 reported in
the 1997 CAR will increase from 15 to
22 Tg C02 Eq.
Coalbed Methane Outreach Program.
The fraction of coal mine methane from
degasification systems that is captured
and used grew from 25 percent in 1990
to more than 85 percent in 1999. Begun
in 1994, the Coalbed Methane Outreach
Program (CMOP) is working to demon-
strate technologies that can eliminate
the remaining emissions from degasifi-
cation systems, and is addressing
methane emissions in ventilation air.
EPA estimates that CMOP reduced 7
Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000. Due to unantici-
pated mine closures, EPA projects that
the program's reduction in 2010 will be
reduced slightly from that reported in
the 1997 submission, from 11 to 10 Tg
CO2 Eq. However, CMOP's anticipated
success in reducing ventilation air
methane over the next few years may
lead to an upward revision in the pro-
jected reductions for 2010 and beyond.
HFC, PFC, SF6 Environmental
Stewardship
The United States is one of the first
nations to develop and implement a
national strategy to control emissions of
high-GWP gases. The strategy is a com-
bination of industry partnerships and
regulatory mechanisms to minimize
atmospheric releases of HFCs, PFCs and
SFg, which contribute to global warm-
ing, while ensuring a safe, rapid, and
cost-effective transition away from chlo-
rofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochloro-
fluorocarbons (HCFCs), halons, and
other ozone-depleting substances across
multiple industry sectors.
Significant New Alternatives Program.
This program continued to facilitate the
smooth transition away from ozone-
depleting chemicals in major industrial
and consumer sectors, while minimizing
risks to human health and the environ-
ment. Hundreds of alternatives deter-
mined to reduce overall risks have been
listed as substitutes for ozone-depleting
chemicals. By limiting use of global
warming gases in specific applications
where safe alternatives are available, the
program reduced emissions by an esti-
mated 50 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000 and is
projected to reduce emissions by 162
TgCO2Eq. in 2010.
HFC-23 Partnership. This partnership
continued to encourage companies to
develop and implement technically fea-
sible, cost-effective processing practices
or technologies to reduce HFC-23
emissions from the manufacture of
HCFC-22. Despite a 35 percent
increase in production since 1990, EPA
estimates that total emissions are below
1990 levels—a reduction of 17 Tg CO2
Eq., compared to business as usual. EPA
projects reductions of 27 Tg CO2 Eq.
for 2010.
Partnership with Aluminum Producers.
This partnership continued to reduce
CF4 and C2Fg where cost-effective
-------
Policies and Measures i 59
technologies and practices are techni-
cally feasible. It met its overall goal for
2000, with emissions reduced by about
50 percent relative to 1990 levels on an
emissions per unit of product basis.
EPA estimates that the partnership
reduced emissions by 8 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2000 and projects reductions of 10 Tg
CO2Eq. in 2010.
Environmental Stewardship Initiative.
This initiative was a new action pro-
posed as part of the 1997 CAR, based on
new opportunities to reduce emissions of
high-GWP gases. Its initial objective was
to limit emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and
SFg in three industrial applications: semi-
conductor production, electric power
distribution, and magnesium production.
Additional sectors are being assessed for
the availability of cost-effective emission
reduction opportunities and are being
added to this initiative. EPAs current
projections are that the programs will
reduce emissions by 94 Tg CO, Eq. in
2010. Because resource constraints
delayed implementation of the electric
power system and magnesium partner-
ships, EPAs estimate of the total 2000
reduction is 3 Tg CO2 Eq. less than was
expected in 1997.
Agriculture
The U.S. government maintains a
broad portfolio of research and out-
reach programs aimed at enhancing the
overall environmental performance of
U.S. agriculture, including reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and increas-
ing carbon sinks.
AgSTAR and RLEP
The U.S. government also imple-
ments programs targeting greenhouse
gas emissions from agriculture. Specific
practices aimed at directly reducing
greenhouse gas emissions are devel-
oped, tested, and promoted through
outreach programs. These programs,
including AgSTAR and the Ruminant Live-
stock Efficiency Program (RLEP), have
focused on reducing methane emis-
sions. Although the overall impact of
AgSTAR and RLEP on greenhouse gas
emissions has been small on a national
scale, program stakeholders in the agri-
cultural community have demonstrated
that the practices can reduce green-
house gas emissions and increase
productivity. The practices being tested
under AgSTAR and RLEP can be
incorporated into U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) broad conserva-
tion programs.
Nutrient Management Tools
Efforts to reduce nitrous oxide emis-
sions focus on improving the efficiency
of fertilizer use. For example, in 1996
USDAs Natural Resources Conserva-
tion Service began collaborating with
partners on two nutrient management
tools that can improve the efficiency of
farm-level fertilizer use. The project's
goal is to construct a database of such
information and make it available to
producers. These tools will enable
farmers to develop nutrient manage-
ment plans and detailed crop nutrient
budgets, and to assess the impact of
management practices on nitrous oxide
emissions.
Conservation Programs
Several conservation programs are
providing significant benefits in reduc-
ing greenhouse gas emissions and
increasing carbon sequestration in agri-
cultural soils.
Conservation Reserve Program. This
USDA program cost-effectively assists
farm owners and operators in conserving
and improving soil, water, air, and
wildlife resources by removing environ-
mentally sensitive land from agricultural
production and keeping it under
long-term, resource-conserving cover.
Currently, USDA estimates that the pro-
gram removes 34 million acres of envi-
ronmentally sensitive cropland from
production and generates long-term
environmental benefits, including the
offset of about 56 Tg CO2 Eq. each year.
Projections indicate that total enroll-
ment in the program will reach the max-
imum authorized level of slightly over
36 million acres by the end of 2002.
Changing Management Practices.
USDA also offers conservation pro-
grams that are aimed at changing man-
agement practices rather than removing
land from production. For example, the
Environmental Quality Incentive Program
provides technical, educational, and
financial assistance to landowners who
face serious natural resource challenges.
It helps producers make beneficial and
cost-effective changes to cropping and
grazing systems,- improve manure,
nutrient, and pest management,- and
implement conservation measures to
improve soil, water, and related natural
resources. Similarly, Conservation and
Technical Assistance supports locally led,
voluntary conservation through unique
partnerships. The program provides
technical assistance to farmers for plan-
ning and implementing soil- and water-
conservation practices.
Conservation Compliance Plans. In
addition to direct assistance programs,
USDA farm program "conservation
compliance" eligibility policy protects
existing wetlands on agricultural land
and requires that excess erosion on
highly erodible agricultural land be
controlled through implementation of a
conservation plan. The ancillary bene-
fits of this policy to greenhouse gas
mitigation include increased soil carbon
sequestration on working agricultural
land and preservation of soil carbon
associated with wetlands.
Bio-based Products and Bioenergy
The goal of this USDA-DOE col-
laborative research program is to triple
the nation's use of bio-based products
and bioenergy. One of the objectives is
to use renewable agricultural and
forestry biomass for a range of prod-
ucts, including biofuels, as an offset to
CO, emissions.
Additional Policies and Measures
Appendix B describes two additional
programs: the USDA Commodity Credit
Corporation's Bioenergy Program and the
Conservation Reserve Program Biomass Project.
-------
60 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Forestry
The U.S. government supports
efforts to sequester carbon in both
forests and harvested wood products to
minimize unintended carbon emissions
from forests by reducing the cata-
strophic risk of wildfires.
Forest Stewardship
USDA's Forest Stewardship Program and
Stewardship Incentive Program provide tech-
nical and financial assistance to non-
industrial, private forest owners. About
147 million hectares (363 million acres)
of U.S. forests are nonindustrial, private
forestlands and provide many ecologi-
cal and economic benefits and values.
These forests provide about 60 percent
of our nation's timber supply, with
increases expected in the future. The
acceleration of tree planting on nonin-
dustrial, private forestlands and mar-
ginal agricultural lands can help meet
resource needs and provide important
ancillary benefits that improve environ-
mental quality—e.g., wildlife habitat,
soil conservation, water quality protec-
tion and improvement, and recreation.
Additionally, tree planting and forest
management increase the uptake of
CO2 and the storage of carbon in living
biomass, soils, litter, and long-life wood
products. Both programs are managed
by USDAs Forest Service in coopera-
tion with state forestry agencies.
National Fire Plan
The recently completed National
Fire Plan will improve fire management
on forested lands, especially in the
western parts of the United States. The
effort is designed to foster a proactive,
collaborative, and community-based
approach to reducing risks from
wildland fires, using hazardous fuels
reduction, integrated vegetation man-
agement, and traditional firefighting
strategies. While the initiative recog-
nizes that fire is part of natural ecosys-
tems, it will have long-term benefits in
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
because the risks of catastrophic forest
fires will be lower. In addition, the ini-
tiative will generate a great volume of
small-diameter, woody materials as part
of hazardous fuel-reduction activities.
Some of these materials have the poten-
tial to be used for biomass electric
power and composite structural build-
ing products.
Waste Management
The U.S. government's waste man-
agement programs work to reduce
municipal solid waste and greenhouse
gas emissions through energy savings,
HI HI
The array of conservation issues has grown with changes in the structure of agriculture
and in farm and forest management practices, and with greater public concern about a
wider range of issues, including greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration, and
energy production and conservation. The agriculture and forestry sectors have been
responsive to this concern, and progress has been made in each of these areas.
Today, U.S. forests and forest products are sequestering a significant quantity of carbon
every year, equivalent to roughly 15 percent of overall U.S. emissions. Carbon sequestra-
tion in agricultural soils is offsetting an additional 2 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emis-
sions. Given appropriate economic incentives, much of the vast landscape managed by
farmers and forest landowners could be managed to store additional carbon, produce bio-
mass and biofuels to replace fossil fuels, and reduce energy use. The challenge is to iden-
tify and implement low-cost opportunities to increase carbon storage in soils, provide
low-cost tools for enhanced farm and forest management, and ensure that the production
of energy raw materials is environmentally beneficial. Realizing these opportunities will
take a number of efforts, including an adequate system for measuring the carbon storage
and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and forests.
For more information about the Administration's effort to formulate a longer-term view of
the nation's agriculture and food system, see Food and Agricultural Policy: Taking Stock for
the New Century, which is available at www.usda.gov (USDA/NRCS 2001).
increased carbon sequestration, and
avoided methane emissions from land-
fill gas—the largest contributor to U.S.
anthropogenic methane emissions.
Climate and Waste Program
This program was introduced to
encourage recycling and source reduc-
tion for the purpose of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions. EPA is imple-
menting a number of targeted efforts
within this program to achieve its goals.
WasteWise continues to work with organ-
izations to reduce solid waste. New ini-
tiatives, including extended product
responsibility and biomass waste, further
waste reduction efforts through volun-
tary or negotiated agreements with
product manufacturers, and market
development activities for recycled-con-
tent and bio-based products. Since the
last CAR, the Pay-As-You-Throw Initiative
was launched to provide information and
education on community-based pro-
grams that provide cost incentives for
residential waste reduction. EPA is also
continuing to conduct supporting out-
reach, technical assistance, and research
efforts on the linkages between climate
change and waste management to com-
plement these activities. Reductions in
2000 are estimated by EPA at 8 Tg CO2
Eq. and are projected to increase to 20
TgCO2Eq. in 2010.
Stringent Landfill Rule
Promulgated under the Clean Air
Act in March 1996, the New Source
Performance Standards and Emissions
Guidelines (Landfill Rule) require large
landfills to capture and combust their
landfill gas emissions. Since the last
CAR, implementation of the rule began
at the state level in 1998. Preliminary
data on the rule's impact indicate that
increasing its stringency has signifi-
cantly increased the number of landfills
that must collect and combust their
landfill gas. Methane reductions in
2000 are estimated by EPA at 15 Tg
CO2 Eq. The current EPA projection
for 2010 is 33 Tg CO2 Eq., although
the preliminary data suggest that reduc-
tions from the more stringent rule may
be even greater over the next decade.
-------
Policies and Measures i 61
More comprehensive data will be avail-
able by the next CAR submission.
Landfill Methane
Outreach Program
This program continues to encourage
landfills not regulated by the Landfill Rule
to capture and use their landfill gas emis-
sions. Capturing and using landfill gas
reduces methane emissions directly and
reduces CO2 emissions indirectly
through the utilization of landfill gas as
a source of energy, thereby displacing
the use of fossil fuels. Since the last
CAR, the Landfill Methane Outreach Program
(LMOP) continues to work with landfill
owners, state energy and environmental
agencies, utilities and other energy sup-
pliers, industry, and other stakeholders
to lower the barriers to landfill gas-to-
energy projects. LMOP has developed a
range of tools to help landfill operators
overcome barriers to project develop-
ment, including feasibility analyses, soft-
ware for evaluation project economics,
profiles of hundreds of candidate land-
fills across the country, a project devel-
opment handbook, and energy end user
analyses. Due to these efforts, the num-
ber of landfill gas-to-energy projects has
grown from less than 100 in the early
1990s to almost 320 projects by the end
of 2000. EPA estimates that LMOP
reduced greenhouse gas emissions from
landfills by about 11 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2000 and projects reductions of 22 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 2010.
Cross-sectoral
The federal government has taken
the lead to reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions from energy use in federal build-
ings and transportation fleets by:
» requiring federal agencies, through
Executive Order 13221, to purchase
products that use no more than one
watt in standby mode,-
» directing the heads of executive
departments and agencies to take
appropriate actions to conserve
energy use at their facilities, review
existing operating and administrative
processes and conservation pro-
grams, and identify and implement
ways to reduce energy use,-
» requiring all federal agencies to take
steps to cut greenhouse gas emis-
sions from energy use in buildings
by 30 percent below 1990 levels by
2010;
* directing federal agencies in Wash-
ington, D.C., to offer their employ-
ees up to $100 a month in transit
and van pool benefits,- and
« requiring federal agencies to imple-
ment strategies to reduce their fleets'
annual petroleum consumption by
20 percent relative to 1990 con-
sumption levels and to use alterna-
tive fuels a majority of the time.
Federal Energy
Management Program
This program reduces energy use in
federal buildings, facilities, and opera-
tions by advancing energy efficiency
and water conservation, promoting the
use of renewable energy, and managing
utility choices of federal agencies. The
program accomplishes its mission by
leveraging both federal and private
resources to provide federal agencies
the technical and financial assistance
they need to achieve their goals.
State and Local Climate
Change Outreach Program
This EPA program continues to pro-
vide technical and financial assistance to
states and localities to conduct green-
house gas inventories, to develop state
and city action plans to reduce green-
house gas emissions, to study the impacts
of climate change, and to demonstrate
innovative mitigation policies or out-
reach programs. New or developing
projects include estimates of forest car-
bon storage for each state, a spreadsheet
tool to facilitate state inventory updates,
a software tool to examine the air quality
benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation, a
study of the health benefits of green-
house gas mitigation, and a working
group on voluntary state greenhouse gas
registries. To date, 41 states and Puerto
Rico have initiated or completed inven-
tories, and 27 states and Puerto Rico have
completed or are developing action
plans. While the program's primary pur-
pose is to build climate change capacity
and expertise at the state and local levels,
EPA estimates that the program reduced
greenhouse gas emissions by about 6 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 2000.
NONFEDERAL POLICIES
AND MEASURES
All federal climate initiatives are con-
ducted in cooperation with private-sec-
tor parties. The private sector's support is
essential for the success of emission
reduction policies. Businesses, state and
local governments, and NGOs are also
moving forward to address global cli-
mate change—through programs to
improve the measurement and reporting
of emission reductions,- through volun-
tary programs, including emissions trad-
ing programs,- and through sequestration
programs.
State Initiatives
In 2000, the National Governors
Association reaffirmed its position on
global climate change policy. At the
domestic level, the governors recom-
mended that the federal government
continue its climate research, including
regional climate research, to improve
scientific understanding of global cli-
mate change. The governors also rec-
ommended taking steps that are
cost-effective and offer other social and
economic benefits beyond reducing
greenhouse gas emissions. In particular,
the governors supported voluntary part-
nerships to reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions while achieving other economic
and environmental goals.
NEG-ECP 2001 Climate
Change Action Plan
The New England Governors and
Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG—ECP)
adopted a Resolution accepting the
goals of the NEG-ECP 2001 Climate
Change Action Plan. The plan sets an
overall goal for reducing greenhouse
gases in New England States and East-
ern Canadian Provinces to 1990 emis-
sion levels by 2010, and to 10 percent
below 1990 emissions by 2020. The
plan's long-term goal is to reduce
regional greenhouse gas emissions suffi-
ciently to eliminate any dangerous
-------
62 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
threat to the climate (75-85 percent
below current levels).
Massachusetts Regulation of
Electric Utility Emissions
In April 2001, the governor of Massa-
chusetts released a regulation requiring
additional controls on Massachusetts
electric utility sources, making the state
the first in the nation to adopt binding
reduction requirements for COr The
new regulation sets a cap on total emis-
sions and creates an emission standard
that will require CO2 reductions of
about 10 percent below the current aver-
age emission rate. The regulation allows
companies to buy carbon credits to meet
their reduction requirements.
New York and Maryland
Executive Orders
The governors of New York and
Maryland issued Executive Orders
requiring state facilities to: (1) purchase a
percentage of energy from green
sources,- (2) evaluate energy efficiency in
state building design and maintenance,-
and (3) purchase ENERGY SiAR®-labeled
products when available. Both states are
developing comprehensive action plans
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
New Jersey Executive Order
The State of New Jersey issued an
Executive Order to reduce the state's
annual greenhouse gas emissions to 3.5
percent below 1990 levels by 2005,
using "no regrets" measures that are read-
ily available and that pay for themselves
within the short term. The potential
emission reductions are based on policies
and technologies identified in the New
Jersey Sustainability Greenhouse Gas Action
Plan (NJ 2000). Approximately two-
thirds of the reductions will be achieved
through energy efficiency and innova-
tive energy technologies in residential,
commercial, and industrial buildings.
The remainder will come from energy
conservation and innovative technolo-
gies in the transportation sector, waste
management improvements, and natural
resource conservation.
Other State Initiatives
California, Maine, New Hampshire,
New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Texas are
developing voluntary registries for greenhouse
gas emissions. In addition, 12 states have
established renewable portfolio standards,
and 19 out of 24 states have included
public benefit charges (also called system
benefit charges) as a component of their
electricity restructuring policy to sup-
port continued investment in energy
efficiency and renewable energy.
Approximately $11 billion, for the
period 1998-2012, is expected to be
available nationwide through public
benefit fund programs. Greenhouse gas
emission inventories have been completed
in 37 states, with four more in progress,-
and 19 states completed action plans to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with
8 more in progress.
Local Initiatives
A total of 110 U.S. cities and coun-
ties, representing nearly 44 million
people, are participating in the Interna-
tional Council for Local Environmental
Initiatives' Cities for Climate Protection Cam-
paign. This program offers training and
technical assistance to cities, towns, and
counties for projects focusing on reduc-
ing emissions. Actions implemented
through the campaign are reducing
emissions by over 7 Tg CO2 Eq. each
year. Also, in June 2000, the U.S. Con-
ference of Mayors passed a resolution
recognizing the seriousness of global
warming and calling for increased coop-
eration between cities and the federal
government in taking action to address
the challenge.
Private-Sector and
NGO Initiatives
Following are some highlights of
private-sector and NGO efforts that are
demonstrative of leadership by example.
Green Power Market
Development Group
In May 2000 a number of private
corporations not directly involved
with the electric utility industry organ-
ized the Green Power Market Development
Group to support the development of
green U.S. energy markets. Together,
the Group's 11 members—Alcoa,
Cargill-Dow, Delphi, DuPont, General
Motors, IBM, Interface, Johnson &
Johnson, Kinko's, Oracle, and Pitney
Bowes—account for about 7 percent of
U.S. industrial energy use. They are
working with the World Resources
Institute and Business for Social
Responsibility to purchase 1,000
megawatts of new green energy capac-
ity and otherwise provide support to
the development of green energy mar-
kets. The Group believes that such
markets are essential to provide com-
petitively priced energy that also pro-
tects the Earth's climate and reduces
conventional air pollutants. The mem-
bers are exploring a variety of green
energy purchase opportunities to iden-
tify those that are cost-competitive.
This is a long-term process, with com-
panies hoping to support market devel-
opment over a 10-year period.
Business Environmental
Leadership Council
The U.S. business community, many
times in partnership with environmental
NGOs, is moving forward on climate
change in many other ways. For exam-
ple, the Pew Center on Climate Change
launched a $5 million campaign in 1998
to build support for taking action on
climate change. Boeing, DuPont, Shell,
Weyerhaeuser, and 32 other major cor-
porations joined the Center's Business
Environmental Leadership Council, agreeing
that "enough is known about the sci-
ence and environmental impacts of cli-
mate change for us to take actions to
address its consequences."
Climate Savers
Johnson & Johnson, IBM, Polaroid,
and Nike have joined this new partner-
ship to help business voluntarily lower
energy consumption and reduce green-
house gas emissions. In joining Climate
Savers, partners make specific commit-
ments to reduce their emissions and
participate in an independent verifica-
tion process.
-------
Policies and Measures i 63
Partnership for Climate Action
Seven companies, including BP,
DuPont, and Shell International joined
Environmental Defense in the creation
of the Partnership for Climate Action. Each
company has set a firm target for green-
house gas reductions and has agreed to
measure and publicly report its emis-
sions.
Voluntary Reporting of
Greenhouse Gases
Under this program, provided by
section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy
Act of 1992, more than 200 companies
have voluntarily reported to DOE more
than 1,715 voluntary projects to
reduce, avoid, or sequester greenhouse
gas emissions.
Auto Manufacturers' Initiatives
U.S. auto manufacturers have an-
nounced production plans for hybrid
gas and electric vehicles in 2003 or
2004 and have pledged to increase their
sport-utility vehicles' fuel economy by
25 percent by 2005.
-------
64 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
TABLE 4-1 Summary of Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Name of Policy
or Measure
Objective and/or Activity Affected
ENERGY: COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL
Estimated
Mitigation
GHG Type of Status Implementing Impact for 2000
Affected Instrument Entity/Entities (TgC02Eq.)
56.8
ENERGY STAR® for the
Commercial Market
Commercial Buildings
Integration: Updating
State Buildings Codes;
Partnerships for
Commercial Buildings
and Facilities
ENERGY STAR® for the
Residential Market
Community Energy
Program: Rebuild
America
Residential Building
Integration: Building
America
ENERGY STAR®-Labeled
Products
Building Equipment,
Materials, and Tools:
Superwindow
Collaborative; Lighting
Partnerships; Partner-
ships for Commercial
Buildings and Facilities;
Collaborative Research
and Development
Residential Appliance
Standards
State and Community
Assistance: State Energy
Program; Weatherization
Assistance Program;
Community Energy
Grants; Information
Outreach
Heat Island Reduction
Initiative
Economic Incentives/
Tax Credits
Promotes the improvement of energy
performance in commercial buildings.
Realizes energy-saving opportunities
provided by whole-building approach
during construction and major
renovation of existing commercial
buildings.
Promotes the improvement of energy
performance in residential buildings
beyond the labeling of products.
Helps communities, towns and cities
save energy, create jobs, promote
growth, and protect the environment
through improved energy efficiency and
sustainable building design and
operation.
Funds, develops, demonstrates, and
deploys housing that integrates energy-
efficiency technologies and practices.
Label distinguishes energy-efficient
products in the marketplace.
Conducts R&D on building components
and design tools and issues standards
and test procedures for a variety of
appliances and equipment.
CO,
CO,
Reviews and updates efficiency
standards for most major household
appliances.
Provides funding for state and
communities to provide local energy-
efficiency programs, including services
to low-income families; to implement
sustainable building design and
operation; and to adopt a systematic
approach to marketing and
communication objectives.
Reverses the effects of urban heat
islands by encouraging the use of
mitigation strategies.
Provides tax credits to residential solar
energy systems.
CO,
CO,
CO,
CO,
CO,
CO,
CO,
CO,
CO,
Voluntary Implemented EPA
Research, Implemented DOE
regulatory
Voluntary, Implemented EPA
outreach
Voluntary, Implemented DOE
information,
education
Voluntary, Implemented DOE
research,
education
Voluntary, Implemented EPA/DOE
outreach
Information, Implemented DOE
research
Regulatory Implemented DOE
Economic, Implemented DOE
information
Voluntary, Implemented
information,
research
Economic Proposed
EPA
-------
Policies and Measures i 65
TABLE 4-1 (continued) Sum
Name of Policy
or Measure
ENERGY: INDUSTRIAL
Industries of the Future
Best Practices Program
ENERGY STAR® for Industry
(Climate Wise)
Industrial Assessment
Centers
Enabling Technologies
mary of Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Em
Objective and/or Activity Affected GHG
Affected
Helps nine key energy-intensive All
industries reduce their energy con-
sumption while remaining competitive
and economically strong.
Offers industry tools to improve plant All
energy efficiency, enhance environ-
mental performance, and increase
productivity.
Enables industrial companies to C02
evaluate and cost-effectively reduce
their energy use.
Assesses and provides recommen- All
dationsto manufacturers in identifying
opportunities to improve productivity,
reduce waste, and save energy.
Addresses the critical technology All
challenges partners face for developing
issions
Type of Status
Instrument
Voluntary, Implemented
information
Voluntary, Implemented
information
Voluntary Implemented
Information, Implemented
research
Information, Implemented
research
Estimated
Mitigation
Implementing Impact for 2000
Entity/Entities (TgC02Eq.)
27.9
DOE
DOE
EPA
DOE
DOE
Financial Assistance:
NICE3
materials and production processes.
Provides funding to state and industry
partnerships for projects that develop
and demonstrate advances in energy
efficiency and clean production
technologies.
All
Research Implemented
DOE
ENERGY: SUPPLY
14.7
Renewable Energy
Commercialization: Wind;
Solar; Geothermal;
Biopower
Climate Challenge
Distributed Energy
Resources (DER)
High-Temperature
Superconductivity
Hydrogen Program
Develops clean, competitive power
technologies using renewable
resources.
Promotes efforts to reduce, avoid, or
sequester greenhouse gases from elec-
tric utilities.
Focuses on technology development
and the elimination of regulatory and
institutional barriers to the use of DER.
Advances R&D of high-temperature
superconducting power equipmentfor
energy transmission, distribution, and
industrial use.
Enhances and supports the develop-
ment of cost-competitive hydrogen
technologies and systems to reduce the
environmental impacts of their use.
All Research, Implemented DOE
regulatory
All Voluntary Implemented DOE
All Information, Implemented DOE
research,
education,
regulatory
All Research Implemented DOE
All Research, Implemented DOE
education
-------
66 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
TABLE 4-1 (continued) Summary of Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^™
Name of Policy
or Measure
Clean Energy Initiative:
Green Power Partner-
ship; Combined Heat and
Power Partnership
Nuclear Energy Plant
Optimization
Development of Next-
Generation Nuclear
Energy Systems: Nuclear
Objective and/or Activity Affected
Removes market barriers to increased
penetration of cleaner, more efficient
energy supply.
Recognizes the importance of existing
nuclear plants in reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.
Supports research, development, and
demonstration of an advanced nuclear
energy system concept.
GHG Type of
Affected Instrument
C02 Voluntary,
education,
technical
assistance
C02 Information,
technical
assistance
C02 Research,
technical
assistance
Estimated
Mitigation
Status Implementing Impact for 2000
Entity/Entities (Tg C02 Eq.)
Implemented EPA
Implemented DOE
Implemented DOE
Energy Research
Initiative; Generation IV
Initiative
Support Deployment of
New Nuclear Power
Plants in the United States
Carbon Sequestration
Hydropower Program
International Programs
Economic Incentives/
Tax Credits
Ensures the availability of near-term
nuclear energy options that can be in
operation in the U.S. by 2010.
Develops newtechnologies for
addressing cost-effective management
of C02 emissions from the production
and use of fossil fuels.
Improves the technical, societal, and
environmental benefits of hydropower.
Accelerates the international develop-
ment and deployment of clean energy
technologies.
Provides tax credits to electricity gen-
erated from wind- and biomass-based
generators.
C02 Information Implemented DOE
C02 Research Implemented DOE
All Information, Implemented DOE
research
All Information, Implemented DOE
technical
assistance
C02 Economic Proposed
-------
TABLE 4-1 (continued) Summary of Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Policies and Measures i 67
Name of Policy
or Measure
_________
Objective and/or Activity Affected
GHG
Affected
Type of
Instrument
Status
Implementing
Entity/Entities
Estimated
Mitigation
Impact for 2000
(TgC02Eq.)
________
FreedomCAR Research
Partnership
Promotes the development of hydrogen
as a primary fuel for cars and trucks.
C02 Research, Implemented DOE
information
Vehicle Systems R&D
Clean Cities
Biofuels Program
Commuter Options
Programs
Smart Growth and
Brownfields Policies
Ground Freight
Transportation Initiative
Clean Automotive
Technology
DOT Emission-Reducing
Initiatives
Promotes the development of cleaner, C02
more efficient passenger vehicles.
Supports public-private partnerships to All
deploy alternative-fuel vehicles and
builds supporting infrastructure, includ-
ing community networks.
Researches, develops, demonstrates. All
and facilitates the commercialization of
biomass-based, environmentally sound
fuels for transportation.
Reduces single-occupant-vehicle com- C02
muting by providing incentives and
alternative modes, timing, and locations
for work.
Reduces motorized trips and trip CO
distance by promoting more efficient
location choice.
Increases efficient management prac- CO
tices for ground freight.
Develops advanced clean and fuel- CO,
efficient automotive technology.
Provides funding mechanisms for CO,
alternative modes to personal
motorized vehicles.
Research, Implemented
information
Voluntary, Implemented
information
Information, Implemented
research
Voluntary Implemented
agreements,
tax incen-
tives, infor-
mation,
education,
outreach
Technical Implemented
assistance,
outreach
DOE
DOE
DOE
EPA/DOT
Voluntary/
negotiated
agreements
Adopted
Voluntary, Implemented
research
Funding Implemented
mechanisms
EPA
EPA
EPA
DOT
-------
68 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
TABLE 4-1 (continued) Summary of Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Name of Policy
or Measure
INDUSTRY (NON-CO.,)
Natural Gas STAR
Program
Coalbed Methane
Outreach Program
Significant New
Alternatives Program
HFC-23 Partnership
Partnership with
Aluminum Producers
Environmental
Stewardship Initiative
AGRICULTURE
Agricultural Outreach
Programs: AgSTAR; RLEP
Nutrient Management
Tools
Objective and/or Activity Affected
Reduces methane emissions from U.S.
natural gas systems through the wide-
spread adoption of industry best man-
agement practices.
Reduces methane emissions from U.S.
coal mining operations through cost-
effective means.
Facilitates smooth transition away from
ozone-depleting chemicals in industrial
and consumer sectors.
Encourages reduction of HFC-23 emis-
sions through cost-effective practices
or technologies.
Encourages reduction of CF4 and C2F6
where technically feasible and cost-
effective.
Limits emissions of MFCs, PFCs, and SF6
in industrial applications.
Promotes practices to reduce GHG
emissions at U.S. farms.
Aims to reduce nitrous oxide emissions
through improving by efficiency of fertil-
izer nitrogen.
GHG
Affected
CH4
CH4
High
GWP
High
GWP
PFCs
High
GWP
CH4
N20
Type of Status Implementing' Estimated
Instrument Entity/Entities Mitigation
Impact for 2000
(Tg C02 Eq.)
Voluntary Implemented
agreement
Information, Implemented
education,
outreach
Regulatory, Implemented
information
Voluntary Implemented
agreement
Voluntary Implemented
agreement
Voluntary Implemented
agreement
Information, Implemented
education,
outreach
Technical Implemented
assistance,
information
88.7
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA
EPA/
USDA
EPA/
USDA
USDACCC Bioenergy
Program
Conservation Reserve
Program: Biomass
Project
Encourages bioenergy production
through economic incentives to com-
modity producers.
Encourages land-use changes to
increase the amount of feedstock avail-
able for biomass projects.
CO,
C02
N20
Economic Implemented USDA
Economic Implemented USDA
(pilot phase)
FORESTRY
Forest Stewardship
Sequesters carbon in trees, forest soils,
forest litter, and understudy plants.
CO,
Technical/
financial
assistance
Implemented USDA
-------
Policies and Measures i 69
TABLE 4-1 (continued) Sum
Name of Policy
or Measure
________
Climate and Waste
Program
Stringent Landfill Rule
Landfill Methane
Outreach Program
M91I:§I§MAL___
Federal Energy
Management Program
State and Local Climate
Change Outreach
Program
mary of Actions to Reduce Greenhous
Objective and/or Activity Affected
Encourages recycling, source reduc-
tion, and other progressive integrated
waste management activities to reduce
GHG emissions.
Reduces methane/landfill gas emissions
from U.S. landfills.
Reduces methane emissions from U.S.
landfills through cost-effective means.
_____________________
Promotes energy efficiency and renew-
able energy use in federal buildings,
facilities, and operations.
Assists key state and local decision
makers in maintaining and improving
economic and environmental assets
given climate change.
e Gas Emissions
GHG Type of Status Implementing' Estimated \
Affected Instrument Entity/Entities Mitigation i
Impact for 2000 i
(Tg C02 Eq.) i
39.2 1
All Voluntary Implemented EPA
agreements, i
technical i
assistance, i
information, i
research i
CH4 Regulatory Implemented EPA i
CH4 Voluntary Implemented EPA
agreements, i
information, i
education, i
outreach i
6.2 i
All Economic, Implemented DOE i
information, i
education i
All Information, Implemented EPA i
education, i
research i
-------
Chapter 5
Projected
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
This chapter provides estimates for
national emissions under many of
the implemented policies and
measures for reducing emissions
through technology improvements and
dissemination, demand-side efficiency
gains of many specific types, more effi-
cient regulatory procedures, and shifts
to cleaner fuels. The anticipated expan-
sion of the U.S. economy under the
impetus of population and output
growth at projected rates contributes to
rising greenhouse gas emissions. These
emissions are partly offset by reduc-
tions from ongoing efforts to decrease
energy use and from implemented poli-
cies and measures. Even with projected
growth in absolute emissions, there are
near-term and continuing reductions in
emissions per unit of gross domestic
product (GDP). These projections do
not include the impact of the President's
climate change initiative announced in
February 2002, nor do they include the
effects of policies in the National Energy
-------
Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions i 71
Policy that have not yet been imple-
mented (NEPD Group 2001).
THE NEMS MODEL AND
POLICIES COVERAGE
The U.S. Department of Energy's
(DOE's) Annual Energy Outlook 2002
(AEO 2002) presents mid-term fore-
casts of energy supply, demand, and
prices through 2020 based on results
from the Energy Information Adminis-
tration's National Energy Modeling
System (NEMS) (U.S. DOE/EIA
200la). This integrated model looks at
all determinants of carbon emissions
simultaneously, accounting for interac-
tion and feedback effects. But in some
cases, it uses assumptions about diffu-
sion and adoption rates that are differ-
ent from the assumptions used for the
independent policies and measures esti-
mates in Chapter 4 of this report.
The NEMS uses a market-based
approach that balances supply and
demand with price competition between
fuels and sectors. It is a comprehensive,
but simplified, representation of the
energy economy. Rather than explicitly
including and replicating every transac-
tion, the NEMS measures aggregate
impacts using empirically developed sta-
tistical proxies. Its strength lies in the
consistency it brings in representing and
accounting for the large number of con-
current, interrelated, and competing
energy transactions, investment transac-
tions, and production and consumption
decisions that occur in the national
energy sector.
The AEO 2002 projections are
based on the assumption that the trend
in funding levels for policies continues
to follow historical patterns. Policies or
programs adopted since July 2001—
such as the Green Power Partnership,
the Combined Heat and Power Part-
nership, and the Ground Freight Trans-
portation Initiative—are not included
in these emission estimates. The meth-
ods used to create the projections are
regularly updated as new information
and methods emerge. However, there is
a time lag in the representation of the
future effects of some of the adopted
measures when using an economic
model based on history, such as the
NEMS. Consequently, actual growth in
energy use and emissions may be differ-
ent from the projected levels, and the
AEO 2002 projections should not be
interpreted as reflecting the ultimate
impact of policies and measures over
the 20-year horizon.
The reported impacts of the individ-
ual policies and measures in Chapter 4 of
this report are based on specific assump-
tions for the impacts and adoption of
each measure. However, those impacts
recognize fewer interaction and compet-
itive effects within and among the eco-
nomic sectors in which the individual
measures are applied. A precise mapping
of the emission reductions from individ-
ual policies and measures against the
aggregate estimates of the NEMS used in
the AEO modeling exercise is not possi-
ble. Readers are cautioned not to inter-
pret the difference between the
estimates in Chapter 4 and this chapter
as the numeric difference between the
"with measures" and "without measures"
cases. The direct impact measures of
Chapter 4 compare the effects of provi-
sions that avoid large interaction effects
between each other or broadly competi-
tive alternatives. The NEMS results,
which address interaction effects and
potentially nonmarginal changes, reflect
integrated responses to a comprehensive
set of economic variables.
Assumptions Used to Estimate
Future C02 Emissions
This projection of emissions for dis-
tant future years is always subject to cer-
tain assumptions and uncertainties.
These assumptions relate to the prospec-
tive implementation and funding of poli-
cies and measures adopted but not yet
funded,- to the actual discovery, adop-
tion, and efficacy of technologies not yet
tested in the marketplace,- and to the
pace of future economic growth.
The AEO 2002 projects a declining
ratio of emissions to GDP by incorporat-
ing the impacts—including costs—of
legislation and regulations adopted as of
July 1, 2001. These provisions include,
for example, rising appliance efficiencies
driven by upgraded ENERGY STAR® spec-
ifications for products and homes, pro-
gressive upgrades to commercial light-
ing, and adoption of electric and
alternative-fuel vehicles in accord with
federal and state requirements. Utility
Climate Challenge plans are represented
in large measure, with the exception of
tree-planting programs and purchases of
emission offsets. Renewable-fuels power
generation is included, consistent with
announced utility building plans through
2020. A description of the policies and
measures and technology assumptions
embodied in the AEO projections is pro-
vided in Appendix G of the AEO 2002.
The assumptions under which the
AEO 2002 estimates were prepared
include real GDP growth of 3 percent
annually over the 20-year period, with-
out specific regard to interim business
cycles. The degree of technology
improvement reflected in the projections
is internally generated in the modeling
process based on the Energy Information
Administration's judgment about the
market readiness, cost, and performance
of available technologies, their rates of
adoption, and their potential for effi-
ciency improvement. Based on the AEO
2002 estimates, real oil prices are
expected to average just over $21 a bar-
rel in 2002, and then rise gradually to
$24-$25 a barrel by 2020. Natural gas
supplies are assumed to be adequate to
support the projected growth in
demand. Natural gas prices are projected
to rise from just over $2 per thousand
cubic feet in 2002, to $3.26 in real terms
per thousand cubic feet in 2020. The
projection exercise assumes that current
laws and regulations will continue in
force, but does not anticipate measures
not yet enacted or implemented.
Table 5-1 presents several measures of
the U.S. economy that generate energy
consumption and related carbon emis-
sions, and compares the values used in
the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR)
to those relied upon for this report. In
this 2001 CAR, 2020 real GDP is
notably higher, energy intensity per dol-
lar of GDP is notably lower, natural gas
prices are higher, and gasoline prices are
lower compared to the levels assumed in
the 1997 CAR.
-------
72 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS: 2000-2020
This report contains reported levels
of greenhouse gas emissions for the year
2000 and estimates to 2020. The projec-
tions of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
described here reflect national estimates
of net greenhouse gas emissions consid-
ering population growth, long-term eco-
nomic growth potential, historical rates
of technology improvement, normal
weather patterns, and many of the
implemented policies and measures. The
covered gases include carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, hydro-
fluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and
sulfur hexafluoride.
DOE's Energy Information Adminis-
tration computed the energy-related
CO2 projections and the estimated
adjustments for bunker fuel use (U.S.
DOE/EIA 2001a). The U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency (EPA) pre-
pared the emission projections for
source categories other than CO2 emis-
sions resulting from fossil fuel con-
sumption (U.S. EPA 1999,. 2001a, b, d).
And the U.S. Department of Agricul-
ture (USDA) prepared the estimates of
carbon sequestration rates (USDA 2000).
The projections reflect long-run trends
and do not attempt to mirror short-run
departures from those trends.
Rather than the carbon tonnages
often used in the United States, emission
projections in this report are converted
to metric tons of carbon dioxide equiva-
lents, in keeping with the reporting
guidelines of the United Nations Frame-
work Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). The conversions of non-
CO2 gases to CO2 equivalents are based
on the 100-year global warming poten-
tials (GWPs) listed in the Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change's
(IPCC's) second assessment report
(IPCC 1996b).
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from
energy consumption, industrial and agri-
cultural activities, and other anthro-
pogenic sources continued to grow from
levels reported in the 1997 U.S. Climate
Action Report (Figure 5-1). However, emis-
sions of a few of the non-CO2 gases—
e.g., methane and industrial gases
associated with the production of alu-
minum and HCFC-22—have declined
from 1990 levels and are projected to
remain below 1990 levels out to 2020
(Figure 5-2).
As shown in Figure 5-1, while car-
bon sequestration partly offsets gross
emissions of greenhouse gases, net
emissions are projected to rise nonethe-
less under the impetus of population
and economic growth. Increased efforts
to use cleaner fuels, improved tech-
nologies, and better management meth-
ods for agriculture, forestry, mines, and
landfills have kept the growth of green-
house gas emissions below the concur-
rent growth of the U.S. economy. The
policies and measures described in
Chapter 4 of this report are expected to
further decouple economic growth and
greenhouse gas emissions.
The most recent historical measures
of greenhouse gas emissions are for
2000, but these measures are still pre-
liminary and are thus subject to possible
revision after this report's publication.
Nevertheless, the projections use the
report's preliminary 2000 data as a point
of departure for estimating greenhouse
TABLE 5-1 Comparison of 1997 and 2001 CAR Assumptions and Model Results
Several sectors of the U.S. economy involve energy consumption and related carbon emissions. This table compares the values used in the
1997 U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR) to those relied upon for this report. In this 2001 CAR, 2020 real GDP is notably higher, energy intensity per
dollar of GDP is notably lower, natural gas prices are higher, and gasoline prices are lower compared to the levels assumed in the 1997 CAR.
Factors
2000
2010
2020
1997 CAR 2001 CAR
ReaI GDP (billions of 1996 dollars]
Population (millions)
Residential Housing Stock (millions)
Commercial Floor Space (billion sq. ft.)
Energy Intensity (Btus per 1996 dollar GDP)
Light-Duty Vehicle Miles Traveled (billions)
Energy Commodity Prices
World Oil Price (2000 dollars/barrel) 19.86
Wellhead Natural Gas (2000 dollars/1,000 cu. ft.) 2.02
Minemouth Coal (2000dollars/ton) 19.60
Average Price Electricity (2000 cents/kWh) 7.31
Average Price Gasoline (2000 dollars/gallon) 1.49
8,152
276
103.0
72.3
11,903
2,373
9,224
276
105.2
64.5
10,770
2,340
27.72
3.60
16.45
6.90
1.53
1997 CAR 2001 CAR
9,925
299
114.7
78.5
10,572
2,885
12,312
300
116.0
77.5
9,400
2,981
22.16
2.16
18.00
6.98
1.52
23.36
2.85
14.11
6.30
1.40
1997 CAR 2001 CAR
11,467
324
125.4
85.3
9,631
3,368
16,525
325
127.1
89.6
7,920
3,631
24.18
2.61
16.70
6.66
1.56
24.68
3.26
12.79
6.50
1.40
-------
Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions i 73
FIGURE 5-1 Gross and Net U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2000-2020
Although carbon sequestration partly offsets gross greenhouse gas emissions, net emis-
sions are projected to increase nonetheless under the impetus of population and
economic growth.
12,000
10,000
8,000
O 6,000
4,000
2,000
Gross Greenhouse Gases
Net Greenhouse Gases
9,180
8,700
8,115
8,237
7,540
6,979
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
FIGURE 5-2 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas: 2000-2020
A few of the non-C02 gases—e.g., methane and industrial gases associated with the pro-
duction of aluminum and HFC-22—have declined from 1990 levels and are projected to
remain below 1990 levels out to 2020.
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
CO, Emissions
Nitrous Oxide
Methane | | High GWP Gases
7,655
7,302
6,813
5,799
2000 2005 2010
Note: CO2 emissions reported are net of adjustments.
2015
2020
gas emissions at the 5-year interval
benchmarks of 2005, 2010, 2015, and
2020. The text that follows describes
changes in emission levels and intensi-
ties to the end-point year 2020.
Net U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions: 2000-2020
The total projected levels of U.S.
greenhouse gas emissions are tallied by
(1) combining the CO2 contributions
of energy and nonenergy activities and
the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
of methane, nitrous oxide (including
forestry and agriculture), and the high
GWP gases,- (2) subtracting for pro-
jected levels of carbon sequestration,-
and (3) making noted adjustments.
Because some of the individual green-
house gas emissions apart from energy-
related portions are not attributed to
particular economic sectors, the totals
are reported in aggregate.
Total net U.S. greenhouse gas emis-
sions are projected to rise by 42.7 per-
cent, from 5,773 teragrams of CO2
equivalent (Tg CO2 Eq.)1 as the (pre-
liminary) actual level for 2000, to 8,237
Tg CO2 Eq. projected for 2020 (Table
5-2). However, when examined by
5-year intervals, the rate of increase in
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions is
expected to diminish over the 20-year
projection period. The declining 5-year
growth rates reflect the influence of
development and implementation of
cleaner, more efficient technologies
that reduce the ratio of greenhouse gas
emissions to GDP over the period,- the
substitution of fuels that emit lower vol-
umes of greenhouse gases,- and changes
in the composition of GDP to goods
and services with fewer fuel inputs.
Some of the mitigating factors are also
the subject of implemented policies and
measures that reduce emissions relative
to a hypothetical "business as usual"
path. In addition, there are adopted
policies and measures, not yet fully
implemented, and the possibility of
additional policies and measures prior
to 2020 that are not yet defined, which
together may further reduce the
1 One teragram equals one million metric tons.
-------
74 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
TABLE 5-2 Projected U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from All Sources:
2000-2020 (TgC02Eq.)
Between 2000 and 2020, total net U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise by
42.7 percent. However, the rate of increase in emissions is projected to diminish over the
same period, reflecting the development and implementation of cleaner, more efficient
technologies; the substitution of fuels that emit lower volumes of greenhouse gases; and
changes in the composition of GDP to goods and services with fewer fuel inputs.
All Covered Sources
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Energy-Related C02
Non-energy C02
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
High GWP Gases
Sequestration Removals
Adjustments
5,726
132
623
433
124
-1,205
-59
6,210
138
633
447
170
-1,175
-58
6,727
145
630
464
208
-1,144
-59
7,206
153
625
483
290
-1,096
-57
7,655
161
611
504
410
-1,053
-51
„ „*„ „*„ „*„ „! 1^ *^%
GWP = global warming potential.
Notes: These total U.S. C02 equivalent emissions correspond to carbon weights of 1,574 teragrams tTg) for year
2000; 1,901 Tg for 2010; and 2,246 Tg for 2020. Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
20-year greenhouse gas path below the
aggregate and sectoral levels projected
in this report.
The projected emission levels of this
report for the years 2010 and 2020 are
higher than the levels projected for
those same years in the 1997 U.S. Cli-
mate Action Report, and the preliminary
actual level of emissions reported for
2000 is lower than the 1997 projected
value. The sections that follow present
more detailed projections of specific
categories of total U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions.
C02 Emissions
From 2000 to 2020, energy-related
CO2 emissions are projected to
increase by 33.6 percent, compared to
cumulative projected economic growth
of 80 percent (Table 5-3). The nation's
carbon intensity has declined from 721
grams of CO2 per dollar of GDP in
1990 to 621 grams per dollar in 2000,
and is projected to decline further to
463 grams per dollar of GDP by 2020.
In the first 5-year interval, CO2
emissions are projected to grow by 1.6
percent annually, but by the final 5-year
period growth in emissions will have
diminished to 1.2 percent annually. The
estimated level of U.S. CO2 emissions
from energy-related activities for the
year 2020 is 7,655 Tg CO2. This level of
emissions results from the projected
long-term economic, technological, and
demographic path, and from the impacts
of implemented policies and measures.
Additional policies and measures,
adopted but not yet implemented—
including both new recommendations of
the National Energy Policy and expanded
emphasis on some measures already
implemented—could further reduce
U.S. CO2 emissions for 2020 and
interim years.
The rising absolute levels of green-
house gas emissions for the entire U.S.
economy occur against a background of
growth assumptions for population and
GDP. Over the 20-year period, popula-
tion and personal income are projected
to rise respectively by 18 and 79 percent.
* The CO, emission intensity of the
residential sector is expected to decline
by 30 percent, while the sector's con-
tributions of CO2 are estimated to
rise by 25 percent, to a total of 1,397
Tg CO2 annually by 2020. Over the
same period, the sector is expected
to contribute a diminishing share of
total U.S. CO2 emissions.
» The projected CO2 emission inten-
sity of the commercial sector is expected
to decline by 16 percent over the 20-
year interval, as measured against the
projected 79 percent increase in
GDP. The sector's absolute emission
contributions are estimated to rise by
42.5 percent to a total of 1,363 Tg
CO2 annually by 2020. Over the 20-
year projection period, the commer-
cial sector is expected to contribute a
rising share of total U.S. CO2 emis-
sions.
* The projected CO2 emission inten-
sity of the industrial sector is expected
to decline by 27 percent over the 20-
year interval, as measured against the
projected 79 percent increase in
GDP. The sector's absolute emission
contributions are estimated to rise by
22 percent to a total of 2,135 Tg
CO2 annually by 2020. Over the 20-
year projection period, the industrial
sector is expected to contribute a
diminishing share of total U.S. CO2
emissions.
• The projected CO2 emission inten-
sity of the transportation sector is
expected to decline by 19 percent
over the 20-year interval, as meas-
ured against the projected 79 per-
cent increase in GDP. The sector's
absolute emission contributions are
estimated to rise by 46 percent to a
total of 2,760 Tg CO2 annually by
2020. Over the 20-year projection
period, the transportation sector is
expected to contribute a rising share
of estimated total U.S. CO2 emis-
sions, reflecting the growth of travel
demand and the relatively limited
projected use of low-emission fuels
even by 2020.
Nonenergy C02 Emissions
Other, nonfuel, sources that emit
CO2 include natural gas production
and processing, the cement industry,
and waste handling and combustion.
These CO2 emissions are subject to
increasing voluntary control and are
using recapture technologies to reduce
their emission levels. Because the
underlying sources are so varied, no
clear projection method, other than
-------
Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions i 75
historical extrapolation, is available.
These sources are projected to grow by
1 percent annually, well below the 79
percent GDP growth rate assumed in
the fuel emission projections. These
nonfuel emissions are projected to grow
from 132 Tg CO2 in 2000 to 161 Tg
CO2 in 2020.
CO2 Emissions from the
Electricity Sector
Electricity generation typically pro-
duces significant CO2 emissions, with
the important exceptions of electricity
generated from nuclear power and from
renewable sources, such as hydropower,
geothermal, wind, biomass and biomass
conversion, and solar power applica-
tions. While electricity producers differ
greatly in their reliance on various pri-
mary fuel inputs, their overall CO2 con-
tributions are attributable to the
nationwide electricity purchases of cus-
tomers in all economic sectors.
The electricity sector's CO2 emission
intensity is projected to decline by 6 per-
cent over the 20-year interval, as meas-
ured against a 43 percent projected
TABLE 5-3 U.S. CO, Emissions by Sector and Source: 2000-2020 (Tg CD,)
Improvements in C02 emission intensity and the absolute levels of future C02 emissions vary
among economic sectors. The projected 1 percent annual growth in C02 emissions from
nonenergy sources is well belowthe 79 percent GDP growth rate assumed in the fuel emis-
sion projections.
Sector/Source 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Residential
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Commercial
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Industrial
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Transportation
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Other
Electricity
Total Energy Uses
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Other
Electricity
1,122
101
268
4
748
957
52
181
7
717
1,753
344
499
239
671
1,895
1,843
42
0
11
5,726
2,339
990
250
0
2,147
Nonenergy C02
Emissions 132
Natural Gas Production 39
Industrial Processes 92
1,223
95
292
4
832
1,057
48
199
6
803
1,818
362
541
231
684
2,112
2,055
45
*
13
6,210
2,560
1,077
242
*
2,331
138
40
98
1,269
90
300
5
874
1,163
50
213
7
893
1,951
393
581
232
745
2,345
2,280
50
*
14
6,727
2,813
1,145
244
*
2,526
145
41
104
1,325
86
311
5
924
1,264
51
228
7
979
2,049
414
612
234
790
2,568
2,495
57
1,397
83
325
5
985
1,363
51
245
7
1,059
2,135
432
632
237
834
2,760
2,679
61
16
7,206
3,045
1,208
245
*
2,709
153
43
110
19
7,655
3,245
1,263
249
*
2,897
161
44
117
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
* = less than 0.5 Tg.
increase in total sales of electric energy.
Absolute emissions contributions from
the electricity sector are estimated to rise
by 35 percent during the same period to
a total of 2,897 Tg CO2, reflecting rising
electric power sales from 2000 to 2020.
The sector's share of total U.S. CO2
emissions is expected to rise as well, due
to the growing role of electricity in pow-
ering activities in all economic sectors.
By 2020, the mix of primary fuels in
electricity production is expected to be
significantly different from the mix dur-
ing 2000. The expanding role of natural
gas, with its relatively low greenhouse
gas impact, and the growing dominance
of highly efficient generation technolo-
gies are projected to reduce the sector's
greenhouse gas emissions to a level far
below what they would have been with-
out these changes. As noted above, the
emission intensity of electricity produc-
tion is estimated to decline significantly
over the projection period. By fuel type,
the 2020 CO, emissions from electricity
generation are 22 Tg CO2 for energy
generated from petroleum, 554 Tg CO2
for energy generated from natural gas,
and 2,322 Tg CO2 for generation from
coal (Table 5-4). Greenhouse gas emis-
sions from nuclear and renewable
sources are essentially zero.
Sectoral C02 Emissions from
Electricity Use
Customers in all sectors use electric-
ity. In that sense, the greenhouse gas
emissions that result from electricity pro-
duction and distribution can be attrib-
uted to the end-use sectors (Table 5-5).
• Electricity demand by the residen-
tial sector is projected to rise by 40
percent from 2000 to 2020, while
the CO2 emissions from the sector's
electricity consumption are pro-
jected to rise by 31.7 percent. The
absolute level of projected CO2
emissions attributable to the residen-
tial sector from electricity use in
2020 is 985 Tg CO2.
« Electricity demand by the commer-
cial sector is projected to rise by 49
percent from 2000 to 2020, while
the CO, emissions from the
sector's electricity consumption are
-------
76 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
projected to rise by 47.7 percent.
The absolute level of projected CO2
emissions attributable to the com-
mercial sector from electricity use in
2020 is l,059TgCO2.
Electricity demand by the industrial
sector is projected to rise by 32 per-
cent from 2000 to 2020, while the
CO, emissions from the sector's
electricity consumption are pro-
jected to rise by 24.2 percent. The
absolute level of projected CO2
emissions attributable to the indus-
trial sector from electricity use in
2020 is 834 Tg CO2.
Emissions of CO, from the trans-
portation sector's electricity use are
projected to rise by 71 percent from
2000 to 2020. However, this sector's
overall electricity use is expected to
remain small, constituting less than 1
percent of total U.S. electricity
demand in 2020.
For all sectors, demand for electric-
ity is projected to grow more rapidly
than direct fuel use in other sectors,
as electricity assumes an expanding
role in meeting the energy demands
of the U.S. economy. Emissions of
CO2 from the electricity sector are
projected to rise by 34.9 percent
over the 20-year projection period.
Efficient production and use of elec-
tricity, as well as development of
clean fuels, will be a continuing pol-
icy focus for the United States.
U.S. CO2 Emissions from
Energy Activities
Total CO2 emissions are projected
to increase by 33.4 percent from 2000
to 2020, to an absolute level of 7,816
Tg CO2 (Table 5-6). By contrast, cumu-
lative GDP growth over the same
period is projected at 79 percent. Con-
solidating end-use sectors and the elec-
tricity industry to examine the
projected levels of CO2 emissions by
principal primary fuels shows a growing
relative share for natural gas emissions,
reflecting rising natural gas use. This
share growth for natural gas is an
important cause of the declining ratio
of greenhouse gas—particularly CO2—
emissions to U.S. economic output.
Emissions of CO, from primary fuels
eum
alGas
73
224
1,850
,;,;,;,;,;,;,;,- ,' S1--;,,,,,,,,,,
25
295
2,011
,',',',',',• ,'' ' ;,K,^,t
116
369
2,141
iva-i-,-' ' w'W'
19
479
2,211
22
554
2,322
' * ' i' »j ^ * ^
TABLE 5-4 U.S. CO, Emissions from Electricity Generators: 2000-2020 (Tg CD,)
By 2020, the mix of primary fuels in electricity production is expected to be significantly
different from the mix during 2000.
Eoi2iiJ^L_^
Petro
Natur
Coal
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
TABLE 5-5 Sectoral U.S. C02 Emissions from Electricity Use: 2000-2020 (Tg CD,)
For all sectors, demand for electricity is projected to grow more rapidly than direct fuel use
in other sectors, as electricity assumes an expanding role in meeting the energy demands of
the U.S. economy. Emissions of greenhouse gases from the electricity sector are projected
to rise by 34.9 percent over the 20-year projection period.
Sector 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
|W>\^ v.'. '.v. '.'.V.'.
748
717
671
11
.'.:'.'. V.'.'. 'A '''V-.Y.Y.Y.-
832
803
684
13
.Y.Y.YW '', ..',.",.",.",
874
893
745
14
924
979
790
16
V *t / )V^
985
1,059
834
19
, ^ y y Y * ^
are projected to rise as follows: petro-
leum, 35.4 percent,- natural gas, 49.7
percent,- and coal, 22.4 percent. Emis-
sions of CO, from the ancillary power
needs for electricity generation from
non-fossil fuels—primarily nuclear and
hydro-power, but also including other
renewable sources—remain at negligi-
ble levels (less than 0.4 Tg CO2), even
though the utilization of low-emission
energy sources is expected to double by
2020. Natural gas is projected to meet a
growing share of U.S. energy demand,-
coal, a reduced share,- and petroleum
fuels, approximately the same share.
The impact of the changing shares of
primary fuels is to reduce the intensity
of the GDP's greenhouse gas emissions.
Nonenergy CO, emissions are ex-
pected to grow by 22 percent over the
projection period.
Non-CO^ Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Emissions other than CO2 include
methane emissions from natural gas
production and transmission, coal mine
operation, landfills, and livestock oper-
ations,- nitrous oxide emissions from
agriculture and, to a lesser degree,
transportation,- and hydrofluorocarbon
(HFC), perfluorocarbon (RFC), and sul-
fur hexafluoride (SFg) gases from indus-
trial activities and, in some cases, the
life cycles of the resulting products
(Table 5-7).
Methane
Methane emissions are estimated
for 1990 and 2000, and over the 5-year
benchmarks of 2005, 2010, 2015, and
2020 (U.S. EPA 1999, 2001a). Over
this period, total methane emissions
are estimated to decline by 5.2 per-
cent, primarily due to reductions in
methane emissions from coal mines
and landfills. However, this decline is
expected to be offset in part by rising
methane emissions from livestock
operations. Projected methane emis-
sions from natural gas production,
transportation, and use remain nearly
unchanged, as the rising natural gas
volumes produced and transported are
governed by policies and practices that
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
-------
Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions i 77
will curtail methane releases with
increasing effectiveness over the pro-
jection period.
Natural Gas Operations. Methane emis-
sions from natural gas operations are
projected to increase from 116 Tg CO2
Eq. in 2000 to 119 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2020—an increase of only 2.5 percent,
despite the more than 60 percent pro-
jected increase in natural gas use over
the 20-year period.
Coal Mine Operations. Methane emis-
sions from coal mine operations are
projected to decline from 70 Tg CO2
Eq. in 2000 to 66 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2020—a decrease of 6 percent, prima-
rily due to the closure of very gassy
mines and to a projected shift in coal
production from underground to
surface mines. Coal mine methane is
subject to continually improving man-
agement practices. This decline in coal-
related methane emissions is expected,
despite the more than 20 percent
increase in coal production projected
over the 20-year period.
Landfills. Landfill methane emissions
are projected to decrease from 214 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 2000 to 186 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2020—a decrease of 13 percent, despite
growing volumes of municipal waste in
place over the period. Landfill sites are
assumed to be subject to continually
improving methane recovery practices
over the 20-year period.
Livestock Operations and Other Activities.
Methane emissions from livestock oper-
ations, manure management, and other
activities not separately listed are
expected to rise from 224 Tg CO2 Eq.
in 2000 to 240 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2020—an increase of 10.3 percent.
Anticipated emission management
practices for the agricultural and other
categories do not fully offset projected
agricultural growth over the 20-year
period.
Total Methane Emissions. Total U.S.
methane emissions from all sources
are projected to decline from 623 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 2000 to 611 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2020—a decrease of 2.1 percent.
MFCs, PFCs, and SF6
Emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SFg
are estimated by EPA for 1990, 2000,
and over the 5-year interval bench-
marks of 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020
(U.S. EPA 2001e). While total emis-
sions are projected to rise from 124 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 2000 to 410 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2020, this increase is expected to be
predominantly from the use of HFCs as
replacements for ozone-depleting sub-
stances (ODS). Growth in the use of
HFCs will allow rapid phase-out of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydro-
chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and
halons in a number of important appli-
cations where other alternatives are not
available.
HFCs are expected to be selected
for applications where they provide
superior technical (reliability) or safety
TABLE 5-6 U.S. CO, Emissions from All Sectors: 2000-2020 (Tg CD,)
The growing relative share of natural gas emissions resulting from the increased use of nat-
ural gas is an important cause of the declining ratio of greenhouse gas—particularly C02—
emissions to U.S. economic output.
Primary Fuel/Source 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Primary Fuel C02
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
5,725
2,411
1,214
2,100
6,210
2,584
1,372
2,253
6,728
2,829
1,513
2,385
7,206
3,063
1,687
2,456
7,655
3,266
1,817
2,571
Non-energy CO,
132
138
145
153
161
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
TABLE 5-7 Non-C02 Emissions: 2000-2020 (Tg CD, Eq.)
Emissions other than C02 include methane emissions from natural gas production and trans-
mission, coal mine operation, landfills, and livestock operations; nitrous oxide emissions
from agriculture and, to a lesser degree, transportation; and HFC, RFC, and SF6 gases from
industrial activities.
Non-CO, GHG/Source
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Methane Emissions
Natural Gas
Coal Mines
Landfills
Livestock Operations
Other
623
116
70
214
163
61
634
115
73
219
167
60
630
115
72
213
171
59
625
117
71
202
175
61
611
119
66
186
178
62
High GWP Substances 124 170 208 290 410
ODS Substitutes (HFCs) 58 119 171 266 392
Aluminum (PFCs) 87665
HCFC-22(HFC-23) 30 11 6 3 0
Stewardship Programs 28 33 24 15 13
(Semiconductors, Magnesium,
Electric Power Systems, New
Programs; HFCs, PFCs, SF6)
Nitrous Oxide 433 447 464 483 504
Agriculture 317 326 336 343 350
Mobile Combustion 62 62 66 74 83
Other 54 59 62 66 71
Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding.
-------
78 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
(low toxicity and flammability) per-
formance. In many cases, HFCs provide
equal or better energy efficiency com-
pared to other available alternatives,
and their acceptance in the market will
reduce long-term environmental
impacts. HFCs are expected to replace a
significant portion of past and current
demand for CFCs and HCFCs in insu-
lating foams, refrigeration and air-
conditioning, propellants used in
metered dose inhalers, and other appli-
cations. Emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and
SF, from all other industrial sources are
6
expected to be reduced significantly
below 1990 levels, despite high growth
rates of manufacturing in some sectors.
Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous oxide emissions are expected
to rise from 433 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000 to
504 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2020—an increase of
16.3 percent over the 20-year projection
period. Although the largest single
source of these emissions is agricultural
soils, emissions from this source are pro-
jected to grow at only 9.8 percent. The
fastest-growing sources of nitrous oxide
emissions are the transportation sector
and adipic and nitric acid production.
Emissions from each of these sources are
projected to grow by about 33 percent
over the 20-year period (U.S. EPA
2001b).
Carbon Sequestration
Improved management practices on
forest and agricultural lands and the
regeneration of previously cleared
forests resulted in annual net uptake
(i.e., sequestration) of carbon during
the 1990s (Table 5-8). Land-use deci-
sions influence net carbon uptake long
after their application.
A trend toward managed growth on
private land since the early 1950s has
resulted in a near doubling of the bio-
mass density in eastern U.S. forests.
More recently, the 1970s and 1980s saw
a resurgence of federally sponsored for-
est management and soil conservation
programs, which have focused on
planting trees, improving timber man-
agement activities, combating soil
erosion, and converting marginal crop-
lands to forests. These efforts were
maintained throughout the 1990s, and
are expected to continue through the
projection period. In addition, because
most of the timber that is harvested
from U.S. forests is used in wood prod-
ucts, and much of the discarded wood
products are disposed of in landfills
rather than by incineration, significant
quantities of this harvested carbon are
being transferred to long-term storage
pools, rather than being released to the
atmosphere.
Adjustments to Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Adjustments to the emissions
reported in this chapter include adding
the emissions—predominantly fuel-
related—occurring in U.S. territories,
and subtracting the international use of
bunker fuels, both military and civilian
(Table 5-9). Emissions from fuel use in
U.S. territories are projected to grow
from 51 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2000 to 92 Tg
CO2 Eq. in 2020.2 Bunker fuels in
excludable uses are estimated to pro-
duce emissions of 110 Tg CO2 Eq. in
2000 and 143 Tg CO2 Eq. in 2020.3
Future of the President's
February 2002 Climate
Change Initiative
On February 14, 2002, the President
committed the United States to reduce
its greenhouse gas intensity by 18 per-
cent over the next decade and
announced a series of voluntary pro-
grams to achieve that goal. This
includes proposed enhancements to the
existing emissions registry under sec-
tion 1605(b) of the 1992 Energy Policy
Act that would both protect entities
that register reductions from penalty
under a future climate policy, and create
transferable credits for companies that
show real emission reductions. It also
included expanding sectoral challenges
and renewed support for renewable
energy and energy efficiency tax credits
contained in the National Energy Policy.
The President indicated that progress
would be evaluated in 2012 and that
additional policies, including a broad,
TABLE 5-0 Projections of Carbon Sequestration (Tg CD,)
Improved management practices on forest and agricultural lands and the regeneration of
previously cleared forests resulted in annual net uptake (i.e., sequestration) of carbon dur-
ing the 1990s. These practices are expected to continue throughout the projection period.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Carbon Sequestration (-)
1,205
1,175
1,144
1,049
1,053
2 The projected annual growth rate is 3 percent
(U.S. DOE).
3 The projected annual growth rate is 1.3 percent
(U.S. DOE).
Note: The above land-use sequestration estimates and projections are based on the U.S. government's August 1,
2000, submission to the UNFCCC on methodological issues related to the treatment of carbon sinks/U.S. DOS
2000). The projections are not directly comparable to the estimates provided in Chapter 3 of this report for two
reasons: ID the values provided in Chapter 3 use updated inventory information, and these projections ha ve not
been revised to reflect this new information; and 12) these projections are for a slightly different set of forest
areas and activities than are accounted for in the national greenhouse gas inventory. A new set of projections
that will he consistent with updated inventory estimates will he available from the USDA's Forest Service in
early 2002. The trends provided in these projections serve to illustrate the impact of forces that are likely to
influence carbon sequestration rates over the next decades.
TABLE 5-9 Adjustments to U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Tg co, Eq.)
Adjustments to the emissions reported in this chapter include adding the emissions—pre-
dominantly fuel-related—occurring in U.S. territories, and subtracting the international use
of bunkerfuels, both military and civilian.
+ 92
-143
Emissions in U.S. Territories
International Bunker Fuels
. > ( ,**************
m r Fu if !.fi HIM nil -J mmmtmm
+ 51
-110
+ 59
-117
+ 69
-128
+ 79
-136
-------
Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions ; 79
market-based program, would be con-
sidered in light of the adequacy of these
voluntary programs and developments
in our understanding of the science sur-
rounding climate change. The conse-
quences of this announcement have not
yet been incorporated in current emis-
sion forecasts.
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
AFFECTING PROJECTIONS
Any projection of future emissions is
subject to considerable uncertainty. In
the short term (less than 5 years), the
key factors that can increase or
decrease estimated net emissions
include unexpected changes in retail
energy prices, shifts in the price rela-
tionship between natural gas and coal
used for electricity generation, changes
in the economic growth path, abnormal
winter or summer temperatures, and
imperfect forecasting methods. Addi-
tional factors may influence emission
rates over the longer term, such as tech-
nology developments, shifts in the
composition of economic activity, and
changes in government policies.
Technology Development (+ or -)
Forecasts of net U.S. emissions of
greenhouse gases take into considera-
tion likely improvements in technology
over time. For example, technology-
based energy efficiency gains, which
have contributed to reductions in U.S.
energy intensity for more than 30 years,
are expected to continue. However,
while long-term trends in technology
are often predictable, the specific
areas in which significant technology
improvements will occur and the specific
new technologies that will become dom-
inant in commercial markets are impossi-
ble to forecast accurately, especially over
the long term.
Unexpected scientific breakthroughs
can cause technology changes and shifts
in economic activity that have some-
times had dramatic effects on patterns of
energy production and use. Such break-
throughs could enable the United States
to dramatically reduce future greenhouse
gas emissions. While government and
private support of research and develop-
The May 2001 National Energy Policy (NEP) is a long-term, comprehensive strategy to
increase energy supplies; advance the development of new, environmentally friendly,
energy-conservation technologies; and encourage cleaner, more efficient energy use
(NEPD Group 2001). The NEP identified the major energy challenges facing the United
States and developed 105 recommendations for addressing these challenges. When fully
implemented, many of these recommendations will reduce domestic and international
greenhouse gas emissions. Following is a snapshot of the NEP's proposed initiatives.
Reduce U.S. Energy Consumption
• Expand the ENERGY STAR® program to additional buildings, equipment, and services.
• Improve energy efficiency for appliances, and expand the scope of the appliance stan-
dards program.
• Encourage the use of combined heat-and-power operations and other clean-energy
forms.
• Mitigate transportation congestion by both roadway improvements and information
technology.
• Promote the purchase of fuel-efficient vehicles, including fuel-cell power plants for per-
sonal and heavy vehicles.
• Increase energy conservation in government facilities.
Increase U.S. Energy Supplies
• Enhance the reliability of U.S. energy supplies, and reduce U.S. reliance on energy
imports.
• Increase domestic production of oil, natural gas, and coal.
• Expand supportfor advanced clean-coal technology research.
• Support the expansion of safe nuclear power technologies.
• Increase funding for research and development of renewable and alternative energy
resources.
• Optimize the use of hydroelectric generation.
• Undertake long-term education and research into hydrogen fuels, advanced fuel cells,
and fusion power.
• Extend tax credits for the production of electricity from biomass and wind resources.
• Create federal tax incentives to encourage landfill methane recovery.
Strengthen Global Alliances
• Expand international cooperation for energy research and development.
• Promote continued research on the science of global climate change.
• Cooperate with allies to develop cutting-edge technologies, market-based incentives,
and other innovative approaches to address climate change.
ment efforts can accelerate the rate of
technology change, the effect of such
support on specific technology develop-
ments is difficult to predict.
The Administration has established a
National Climate Change Technology
Initiative (NCCTI) to strengthen basic
research and develop advanced mitiga-
tion technologies for reducing green-
house gas emissions. Success under the
NCCTI could dramatically expand low-
cost emission-reduction opportunities
for the United States and the rest of the
world.
In a modest high-technology case
examined as part of the projections,
energy use in 2020 under the high-tech-
nology regime is 5.6 percent lower than
-------
80 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
in the reference case. By 2020, carbon
emissions from energy use are 507 Tg
CO2 lower than in the reference case.
Regulatory or Statutory
Changes (+or-)
The current forecast of U.S. green-
house gas emissions does not include
the effects of any legislative or regula-
tory action that was not finalized
before July 1, 2001. Consequently, the
forecast does not include any increase
in the stringency of equipment effi-
ciency standards, even though existing
law requires DOE to periodically
strengthen its existing standards and
issue new standards for other products.
Similarly, the forecast does not assume
any future increase in new building or
auto fuel economy standards, even
though such increases are required by
law or are under consideration. Electric
utility regulation is another area where
further federal and state regulatory pol-
icy changes are anticipated, but are not
reflected in the emissions forecast.
Finally, the U.S. Congress is consider-
ing a broad range of legislative propos-
als, including many contained in the
National Energy Policy, that will affect
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Until
specific legislative mandates are
enacted, the forecast of emissions will
not reflect their likely effects.
Energy Prices (+ or -)
The relationship between energy
prices and emissions is complex. Lower
energy prices generally reduce the
incentive for energy conservation and
tend to encourage increased energy use
and related emissions. However, reduc-
tion in the price of natural gas relative
to other fuels also encourages fuel
switching that can reduce carbon emis-
sions.
The AEO 2002 projections do not
assume any dramatic changes in the
energy price trends or the inter-fuel
prices ratio that existed during most of
the 1990s (U.S. DOE/EIA 2001a). Nor
do they assume that the dramatic
increases in energy prices that occurred
from mid-2000 through the beginning
of 2001 will persist. This view is sup-
ported by the precipitous decline in oil
prices that occurred during the second
half of 2001.
While some analysts project that fur-
ther decreases in delivered energy
prices will result from increased compe-
tition in the electric utility sector and
improved technology, others project
that large energy price increases may
result from the faster-than-expected
depletion of oil and gas resources, or
from political or other disruptions in
oil-producing countries.
Economic Growth (+ or -)
Faster economic growth increases
the future demand for energy services,
such as vehicle miles traveled, amount
of lighted and ventilated space, and
process heat used in industrial produc-
tion. However, faster growth also stim-
ulates capital investment and reduces
the average age of the capital stock,
increasing its average energy efficiency.
The energy-service demand and
energy-efficiency effects of higher
growth work in offsetting directions.
The effect on service demand is the
stronger of the two, so that levels of pri-
mary energy use are positively corre-
lated with the size of the economy.
In addition to the reference case
used in developing the updated base-
line, the AEO 2002 provides high and
low economic growth cases, which vary
the annual GDP growth rate from the
reference case. The high-growth case
raises the GDP growth rate by 0.4 per-
cent. The low-growth case reduces the
GDP growth rate by 0.6 percent.
« In the high-growth case 2020 energy
use is 5.6 percent higher than in the
reference case. By 2020, the high-
growth economy is 8.8 percent
larger than the reference economy,
and carbon emissions from energy
use are 462 Tg CO2 Eq. greater than
in the reference case.
» In the low-growth case 2020 energy
use is 5.4 percent lower than in the
reference case. By 2020, the low-
growth economy is 9.7 percent
smaller than the reference economy,
and carbon emissions from energy
use are 395 Tg CO2 Eq. lower than
in the reference case.
Faster-than-expected growth during
the late 1990s was the major cause of
higher-than-expected U.S. greenhouse
gas emissions during this period. The
U.S. economic slowdown in 2001 and
post-September 11 fallout may well
result in lower-than-expected green-
house gas emissions during 2002 and
the immediately following years. How-
ever, the long-run economic growth
path remains unchanged.
Weather (+ or -)
Energy use for heating and cooling is
directly responsive to weather varia-
tion. The forecast of emissions assumes
30-year average values for population-
weighted heating and cooling degree-
days. Unlike other sources of
uncertainty, for which deviations
between assumed and actual trends may
follow a persistent course over time, the
effect of weather on energy use and
emissions in any particular year is
largely independent year to year. For
the United States, a swing in either
direction of the magnitude experienced
in individual years during the 1990s
could raise or lower annual emissions by
70 Tg CO2 Eq. relative to a year with
average weather that generates typical
heating and cooling demands. While
small relative to total emissions, a
change of this magnitude is significant
relative to the year-to-year growth of
total emissions.
-------
Chapter
Impacts an
Adaptation
Uncertainties in Estimates of the Timing, Magnitude, and Distribution
of Future Warming
While current analyses are unable to predict with confidence the timing, magnitude, or
regional distribution of climate change, the best scientific information indicates that if
greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, changes are likely to occur. The U.S.
National Research Council has cautioned, however, that "because there is considerable
uncertainty in current understanding of howthe climate system varies naturally and reacts
to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of
future warmings should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either
upward or downward)" (NRC 2001a). Moreover, there is perhaps even greater uncertainty
regarding the social, environmental, and economic consequences of changes in climate.
(See Chapter 1, page 4, "The Science" box.)
Uncertainties in Regional and Local Projections of Climate Change
One of the weakest links in our knowledge is the connection between global and regional
predictions of climate change. The National Research Council's response to the President's
request for a review of climate change policy specifically noted that fundamental scientif-
ic questions remain regarding the specifics of regional and local projections (NRC 2001a).
Predicting the potential impacts of climate change is compounded by a lack of under-
standing of the sensitivity of many environmental systems and resources—both managed
and unmanaged—to climate change. (See Chapter 1, page 6.)
In its June 2001 report, the Committee
on the Science of Climate Change,
which was convened by the National
Research Council (NRC) of the
National Academy of Sciences, con-
cluded that "[hjuman-induced warming
and associated sea level rises are
expected to continue through the 21 st
century." The Committee recognized
that there remains considerable uncer-
tainty in current understanding of how
climate varies naturally and will
respond to projected, but uncertain,
changes in the emissions of greenhouse
gases and aerosols. It also noted that
the "impacts of these changes will be
critically dependent on the magnitude
of the warming and the rate with which
it occurs" (NRC 200la).
SUMMARY OF THE
NATIONAL ASSESSMENT
To develop an initial understanding
of the potential impacts of climate
change for the United States during the
-------
82 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
21st century, the U.S. Global Change
Research Program has sponsored a
wide-ranging set of assessment activi-
ties since the submission of the Second
National Communication in 1997.
These activities examined regional, sec-
toral, and national components of the
potential consequences for the envi-
ronment and key societal activities in
the event of changes in climate consis-
tent with projections drawn from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Regional studies
ranged from Alaska to the Southeast
and from the Northeast to the Pacific
Islands. Sectoral studies considered the
potential influences of climate change
on land cover, agriculture, forests,
human health, water resources, and
coastal areas and marine resources. A
national overview drew together the
findings to provide an integrated and
comprehensive perspective.
These assessment studies recog-
nized that definitive prediction of
potential outcomes is not yet feasible as
a result of the wide range of possible
future levels of greenhouse gas and
aerosol emissions, the range of possible
climatic responses to changes in atmos-
pheric concentration, and the range of
possible environmental and societal
responses. These assessments, there-
fore, evaluated the narrower question
concerning the vulnerability of the
United States to a specified range of
climate warming, focusing primarily on
the potential consequences of climate
scenarios that project global average
warming of about 2.5 to almost 4°C
(about 4.5-7°F). While narrower than
the IPCC's full 1.4-5.8°C (2.5-10.4°F)
range of estimates of future warming,
the selection of the climate scenarios
that were considered recognized that it
is important to treat a range of condi-
tions about the mid-range of projected
warming, which was given by the NRC
as 3°C (5.4°F). Similarly, assumption of
a mid-range value of sea level rise of
about 48 cm (19 inches) was near the
middle of the IPCC's range of 9-88 cm
(about 4-35 inches) (2001 d).
Because of these ranges and their
uncertainties, and because of uncertain-
ties in projecting potential impacts, it is
important to note that this chapter can-
not present absolute probabilities of
what is likely to occur. Instead, it can
only present judgments about the rela-
tive plausibility of outcomes in the
event that the projected changes in cli-
mate that are being considered do
occur. To the extent that actual emis-
sions of greenhouse gases turn out to be
lower than projected, or that climate
change is at the lower end of the pro-
jected ranges and climate variability
about the mean varies little from the
past, the projected impacts of climate
change are likely to be reduced or
delayed, and continued adaptation and
technological development are likely to
reduce the projected impacts and costs
of climate change within the United
States. Even in this event, however, the
long lifetimes of greenhouse gases
already in the atmosphere and the
momentum of the climate system are
projected to cause climate to continue
to change for more than a century.
Conversely, if the changes in climate
are toward the upper end of the pro-
jected ranges and occur rapidly or lead
to unprecedented conditions, the level
of disruption is likely to be increased.
Because of the momentum in the cli-
mate system and natural climate vari-
ability, adapting to a changing climate
is inevitable. The question is whether
we adapt poorly or well. With either
weak or strong warming, however, the
U.S. economy should continue to grow,
with impacts being reduced if actions
are taken to prepare for and adapt to
future changes.
Although successful U.S. adaptation
to the changing climate conditions dur-
ing the 20th century provides some
context for evaluating potential U.S.
vulnerability to projected changes, the
assessments indicate that the challenge
of adaptation is likely to be greater dur-
ing the 21st century than in the past.
Natural ecosystems appear to be the
most vulnerable to climate change
because generally little can be done to
help them adapt to the projected rate
and amount of change. Sea level rise at
mid-range rates is projected to cause
additional loss of coastal wetlands, par-
ticularly in areas where there are
obstructions to landward migration, and
put coastal communities at greater risk
of storm surges, especially in the south-
eastern United States. Reduced snow-
pack is very likely to alter the timing and
amount of water supplies, potentially
exacerbating water shortages, particu-
larly throughout the western United
States, if current water management
practices cannot be successfully altered
or modified. Increases in the heat index
(which combines temperature and
humidity) and in the frequency of heat
waves are very likely. At a minimum,
these changes will increase discomfort,
particularly in cities,- however, their
health impacts can be ameliorated
through such measures as the increased
availability of air conditioning.
At the same time, greater wealth and
advances in technologies are likely to
help facilitate adaptation, particularly for
human systems. In addition, highly man-
aged ecosystems, such as crops and tim-
ber plantations, appear more robust than
natural and lightly managed ecosystems,
such as grasslands and deserts.
Some potential benefits were also
identified in the assessments. For exam-
ple, due to increased carbon dioxide
(CO2) in the atmosphere and an
extended growing season, crop and for-
est productivities are likely to increase
where water and nutrients are sufficient,
at least for the next few decades. As a
result, the potential exists for an increase
in exports of some U.S. food products,
depending on impacts in other food-
growing regions around the world.
Increases in crop production in fertile
areas could cause prices to fall, benefit-
ing consumers. Other potential benefits
could include extended seasons for con-
struction and warm-weather recreation,
and reduced heating requirements and
cold-weather mortality.
While most studies conducted to
date have primarily had an internal
focus, the United States also recognizes
that its well-being is connected to the
world through the global economy, the
common global environment, shared
resources, historic roots and continuing
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 83
family relations, travel and tourism,
migrating species, and more. As a result,
in addition to internal impacts, the
United States is likely to be affected,
both directly and indirectly and both
positively and detrimentally, by the
potential consequences of climate
change on the rest of the world. To bet-
ter understand those potential conse-
quences and the potential for adaptation
worldwide, we are conducting and par-
ticipating in research and assessments
both within the United States and inter-
nationally (see Chapter 8). To alleviate
vulnerability to adverse consequences,
we are undertaking a wide range of activ-
ities that will help nationally and inter-
nationally, from developing medicines
for dealing with infectious disease to
promoting worldwide development
through trade and assistance. As
described in Chapter 7, the United
States is also offering many types of
assistance to the world community,
believing that information about and
preparation for climate change can help
reduce adverse impacts.
INTRODUCTION
This chapter provides an overview of
the potential impacts of climate change
affecting the United States. The chapter
also summarizes current measures and
future adaptation and response options
that are designed to increase resilience to
climate variations and reduce vulnerabil-
ity to climate change. The chapter is not
intended to serve as a separate assess-
ment in and of itself, but rather is drawn
largely from analyses prepared for the
U.S. National and IPCC Assessments,
where more detailed consideration and
specific references to the literature can
be found (see NAST 2000, 2001 and
IPCC 200id, including the review of
these results presented in NRC 200la
and IPCC 200la).
As indicated by the findings pre-
sented here, considerable scientific
progress has been made in gaining an
understanding of the potential conse-
quences of climate change. At the same
time, considerable uncertainties remain
because the actual impacts will depend
on how emissions change, how the cli-
mate responds at global to regional
scales, how societies and supporting
technologies evolve, how the environ-
ment and society are affected, and how
much ingenuity and commitment soci-
eties show in responding to the poten-
tial impacts. While the range of
possible outcomes is very broad, all
projections prepared by the IPCC
(200Id) indicate that the anthro-
pogenic contribution to global climate
change will be greater during the 21st
century than during the 20th century.
Although the extents of climate change
and its impacts nationally and region-
ally remain uncertain, it is generally
possible to undertake "if this, then that"
types of analyses. Such analyses can
then be used to identify plausible
impacts resulting from projected
changes in climate and, in some cases,
to evaluate the relative plausibility of
various outcomes.
Clear and careful presentation of
uncertainties is also important. Because
the information is being provided to
policymakers and because the limited
scientific understanding of the
processes involved generally precludes
a fully quantitative analysis, extensive
consideration led both the IPCC and
the National Assessment experts to
express their findings in terms of the
relative likelihood of an outcome's
occurring. To integrate the wide variety
of information and to differentiate
more likely from less likely outcomes, a
common lexicon was developed to
express the considered judgment of the
National Assessment experts about the
relative likelihood of the results. An
advantage of this approach is that it
moves beyond the vagueness of ill-
defined terms, such as may or might,
which allow an interpretation of the
likelihood of an outcome's occurring to
range from, for example, 1 to 99 per-
cent, and so provide little basis for dif-
ferentiating the most plausible from the
least plausible outcomes.
In this chapter, which uses a lexicon
similar to that developed for the
National Assessment, the term possible is
intended to indicate there is a finite
likelihood of occurrence of a potential
consequence, the term likely is used to
indicate that the suggested impact is
more plausible than other outcomes,
and the term very likely is used to indicate
that an outcome is much more plausible
than other outcomes. Although the
degree of scientific understanding
regarding most types of outcomes is not
complete, the judgments included here
have been based on an evaluation of the
consistency and extent of available sci-
entific studies (e.g., field experiments,
model simulations), historical trends,
physical and biological relationships,
and the expert judgment of highly qual-
ified scientists actively engaged in rele-
vant research (see NAST 2000, 2001).
Because such judgments necessarily
have a subjective component, the indi-
cations of relative likelihood may
change as additional information is
developed or as new approaches to
adaptation are recognized.
Because this chapter is an overview,
it generally focuses on types of out-
comes that are at least considered likely,
leaving discussion of the consequences
of potential outcomes with lower likeli-
hood to the more extensive scientific
and assessment literature. However, it is
important to recognize that there are
likely to be unanticipated impacts of
climate change that occur. Such "sur-
prises," positive or negative, may stem
from either (1) unforeseen changes in
the physical climate system, such as
major alterations in ocean circulation,
cloud distribution, or storms,- or (2)
unpredicted biological consequences of
these physical climate changes, such as
pest outbreaks. For this reason, the set
of suggested consequences presented
here should not be considered compre-
hensive. In addition, unexpected social
or economic changes, including major
changes in wealth, technology, or polit-
ical priorities, could affect society's abil-
ity to respond to climate change.
This chapter first describes the
weather and climate context for the
analysis of impacts, and then provides a
summary of the types of consequences
that are considered plausible across a
range of sectors and regions. The
chapter then concludes with a brief
-------
84 ! U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
summary of actions being taken at the
national level to learn more about the
potential consequences of climate
change and to encourage steps to
reduce vulnerability and increase
resilience to its impacts. Although the
federal government can support
research that expands understanding
and the available set of options and that
provides information about the poten-
tial consequences of climate change and
viable response strategies, many of the
adaptation measures are likely to be
implemented at state and local levels
and by the private sector. For these rea-
sons and because of identified uncertain-
ties, the results presented should not be
viewed as definitive. Nonetheless, the
more plausible types of consequences
and impacts resulting from climate
change and the types of steps that might
be taken to reduce vulnerability and
increase adaptation to climate variations
and change are identified.
WEATHER AND
CLIMATE CONTEXT
The United States experiences a
wide variety of climate conditions.
Moving across from west to east, the cli-
mates range from the semi-arid and arid
climates of the Southwest to the conti-
nental climates of the Great Plains and
the moister conditions of the eastern
United States. North to south, the cli-
mates range from the Arctic climate of
northern Alaska to the extensive forests
of the Pacific Northwest to the tropical
climates in Hawaii, the Pacific Islands,
and the Caribbean. Although U.S. soci-
ety and industry have largely adapted to
the mean and variable climate condi-
tions of their region, this has not been
without some effort and cost. In addi-
tion, various extreme events each year
still cause significant impacts across the
nation. Weather events causing the most
death, injury, and damage include hurri-
canes (or more generally tropical
cyclones) and associated storm surges,
lightning, tornadoes and other wind-
storms, hailstorms, severe winter storms,
deep snow and avalanches, and extreme
summer temperatures. Heat waves,
floods, landslides, droughts, fires, land
subsidence, coastal inundation and ero-
sion, and even dam failures also can
result when extremes persist over time.
To provide an objective and quantita-
tive basis for an assessment of the poten-
tial consequences of climate change, the
U.S. National Assessment was organized
around the use of climate model scenar-
ios that specified changes in the climate
that might be experienced across the
United States (NAST 2001). Rather
than simply considering the potential
influences of arbitrary changes in tem-
perature, precipitation, and other vari-
ables, the use of climate model scenarios
ensured that the set of climate condi-
tions considered was internally consis-
tent and physically plausible. For the
National Assessment, the climate scenar-
ios were primarily drawn from results
available from the climate models devel-
oped and used by the United Kingdom's
Hadley Centre and the Canadian Centre
for Climate Modeling and Analysis. In
addition, some analyses also drew on
results from model simulations carried
out at U.S. centers, including the
National Center for Atmospheric
Research, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's (NOAAs)
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labora-
tory, and the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration's (NASAs) God-
dard Institute for Space Studies.
Use of these model results is not
meant to imply that they provide accu-
rate predictions of the specific changes in
climate that will occur over the next
100 years. Rather, the models are con-
sidered to provide plausible projections of
potential changes for the 21st century.1
For some aspects of climate, all models,
as well as other lines of evidence, are in
agreement on the types of changes to
be expected. For example, compared to
changes during the 20th century, all cli-
mate model results suggest that warm-
ing during the 21st century across the
country is very likely to be greater, that
sea level and the heat index are going to
rise more, and that precipitation is more
likely to come in the heavier categories
experienced in each region. Also,
although there is not yet close agree-
ment about how regional changes in cli-
mate can be expected to differ from
larger-scale changes, the model simula-
tions indicate some agreement in pro-
jections of the general seasonal and
subcontinental patterns of the changes
(IPCC2001d).
This consistency has lent some con-
fidence to these results. For some
aspects of climate, however, the model
results differ. For example, some mod-
els, including the Canadian model,
project more extensive and frequent
drought in the United States, while
others, including the Hadley model, do
not. As a result, the Canadian model
suggests a hotter and drier Southeast
during the 21st century, while the
Hadley model suggests warmer and
wetter conditions. Where such differ-
ences arise, the primary model scenar-
ios provide two plausible, but different
alternatives. Such differences proved
helpful in exploring the particular sensi-
tivities of various activities to uncertain-
ties in the model results.
Projected Changes in
the Mean Climate
The model scenarios used in the
National Assessment project that the
continuing growth in greenhouse gas
emissions is likely to lead to annual-
average warming over the United States
that could be as much as several degrees
Celsius (roughly 3-9°F) during the 21st
century. In addition, both precipitation
and evaporation are projected to
increase, and occurrences of unusual
warmth and extreme wet and dry con-
ditions are expected to become more
frequent. For areas experiencing these
changes, they would feel similar to an
overall northern shift in weather
For the purposes of this chapter, prediction is meant to indicate forecasting of an outcome that will occur as a result of
the prevailing situation and recent trends (e.g., tomorrow's weather or next winter's El Nino event), whereas projection
is used to refer to potential outcomes that would be expected if some scenario of future conditions were to come about
(e.g., concerning greenhouse gas emissions). In addition to uncertainties in how the climate is likely to respond to a
changing atmospheric concentration, projections of climate change necessarily encompass a wide range because of
uncertainties in projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols and because of the potential effects
of possible future agreements that might limit such emissions.
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 85
systems and climate condition. For
example, the central tier of states would
experience climate conditions roughly
equivalent to those now experienced in
the southern tier, and the northern tier
would experience conditions much like
the central tier. Figure 6-1 illustrates
how the summer climate of Illinois
might change under the two scenarios.
While the two models roughly agree on
the amount of warming, the differences
between them arise because of differ-
ences in projections of changing sum-
mertime precipitation.
Recent analyses indicate that, as a
result of an uncertain combination of
natural and human-induced factors,
changes of the type that are projected
for the 21st century were occurring to
some degree during the 20th century.
For example, over the last 100 years
most areas in the contiguous United
States warmed, although there was
cooling in the Southeast. Also, during
the 20th century, many areas experi-
enced more periods of very wet or very
dry conditions, and most areas experi-
enced more intense rainfall events.
While warming over the 48 contiguous
states amounted to about 0.6°C (about
1°F), warming in interior Alaska was as
much as 1.6°C (about 3°F), causing
changes ranging from the thawing of
permafrost to enhanced coastal erosion
resulting from melting of sea ice.
Model simulations project that min-
imum temperatures are likely to con-
tinue to rise more rapidly than
maximum temperatures, extending the
trend that started during the 20th cen-
tury. Although winter temperatures are
projected to increase somewhat more
rapidly than summer temperatures, the
summertime heat index is projected to
rise quite sharply because the rising
absolute humidity will make summer
conditions feel much more uncomfort-
able, particularly across the southern
and eastern United States.
Although a 0.6°C (1°F) warming may
FIGURE 6-1 Potential Effects of 21st-century Warming on the Summer Climate
of Illinois
This schematic illustrates how the summer climate of Illinois would shift under two plausible
climate scenarios. Under the Canadian Climate Centre model's hot-dry climate scenario, the
changes in summertime temperature and precipitation in Illinois would resemble the current
climatic conditions in southern Missouri by the 2030s and in Oklahoma by the 2090s. For the
warm-moist climate scenario projected by U.K.'s Hadley Centre model, summer in Illinois
would become more like current summer conditions in the central Appalachians by the 2030s
and North Carolina by the 2090s. Both shifts indicate warming of several degrees, but the sce-
narios differ in terms of projected changes in precipitation.
Canadian Model
Hadley Model
70°F -
70°F
Total Summer Precipitation (inches)
Average Summer Temperatures (°F)
Note: The baseline climatic values are for the period 1961-90.
Source: D.J. Wuehhles, University of Illinois Urhana-Champaign, as included in NAST2000.
not seem large compared to daily varia-
tions in temperature, it caused a decline
of about two days per year in the num-
ber of days that minimum temperatures
fell below freezing. Across the United
States, this change was most apparent in
winter and spring, with little change in
autumn. The timing of the last spring
frost changed similarly, with earlier ces-
sation of spring frosts contributing to a
lengthening of the frost-free season over
the country. Even these seemingly small
temperature-related changes have had
some effects on the natural environment,
including shorter duration of lake ice, a
northward shift in the distributions of
some species of butterflies, changes in
the timing of bird migrations, and a
longer growing season.
With respect to changes in precipi-
tation, observations for the 20th cen-
tury indicate that total annual
precipitation has been increasing, both
worldwide and over the country. For
the contiguous United States, total
annual precipitation increased by an
estimated 5-10 percent over the past
100 years. With the exception of local-
ized decreases in parts of the upper
Great Plains, the Rocky Mountains, and
Alaska, most regions experienced
greater precipitation (Figure 6-2). This
increased precipitation is evident in
daily precipitation rates and in the
number of rain days. It has caused wide-
spread increases in stream flow for all
levels of flow conditions, particularly
during times of low to moderate flow
conditions—changes that have gener-
ally improved water resource condi-
tions and have reduced situations of
hydrologic drought.
For the 21 st century, models project a
continuing increase in global precipita-
tion, with much of the increase occur-
ring in middle and high latitudes. The
models also suggest that the increases
are likely to be evident in rainfall events
that, based on conditions in each region,
would be considered heavy (Figure 6-3).
However, estimates of the regional pat-
tern of changes vary significantly. While
there are some indications that winter-
time precipitation in the southwestern
United States is likely to increase due to
-------
86 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
warming of the Pacific Ocean, changes
across key U.S. forest and agricultural
regions remain uncertain.
Soil moisture is critical for agricul-
ture, vegetation, and water resources.
Projections of changes in soil moisture
depend on precipitation and runoff,-
changes in the timing and form of the
precipitation (i.e., rain or snow),- and
changes in water loss by evaporation,
which in turn depends on temperature
change, vegetation, and the effects of
changes in CO, concentration on
evapotranspiration. As a result of the
many interrelationships, projections
remain somewhat uncertain of how
changes in precipitation are likely to
affect soil moisture and runoff, although
the rising summertime temperature is
likely to create additional stress by sig-
nificantly increasing evaporation.
FIGURE 0-2 Observed Changes in Precipitation: 1901-1998
The geographical pattern of observed changes in U.S. annual precipitation during the 20th
century indicates that, although local variations are occurring, precipitation has been
increasing in most regions. The results are based on data from 1,221 Historical Climatology
Network stations. These data are being used to derive estimates of a 100-year trend for
each U.S. climate division.
Note: All stations/trends are displayed,
regardless of statistical significance.
Sources: Groisman et al. 2001; NOAA National
Climatic Data Center.
Trends (WOO Years]
• +10 • -10
• +20 • -20
A +40 A -40
FIGURE e-3 Projected Changes in the Intensity of U.S. Precipitation for the 21st Century
The projected changes in precipitation overthe United States as calculated by two models indicate that most of the increase is likely to occur in
the locally heaviest categories of precipitation. Each bar represents the percentage change of precipitation in a different category of storm inten-
sity. For example, the two bars on the far right indicate that the Canadian Centre model projects an increase of over 20 percent in the 5 percent
most intense rainfall events in each region, whereas the Hadley Centre model projects an increase of over 55 percent in such events. Because
both historic trends and future projections from many global climate models indicate an increase in the fraction of precipitation occurring during
the heaviest categories of precipitation events in each region, a continuation of this trend is considered likely. Although this does not necessarily
translate into an increase in flooding, higher river flows are likely to be a consequence.
r
u
J Hadley Model
I Canadian Model
e
.o
I
•S 20
U
I1
IB
1
I
2.6
.... ....mini
-10
-9.0
0.3
-9.0
Source: Byron Gleason, NOAA National Climatic Data Center /updated from NAST20001.
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 87
Projected Changes in
Climate Variability
As in other highly developed nations,
U.S. communities and industries have
made substantial efforts to reduce their
vulnerability to normal weather and cli-
mate fluctuations. However, adaptation
to potential changes in weather extremes
and climate variability is likely to be
more difficult and costly. Unfortunately,
projections of such changes remain quite
uncertain, especially because variations
in climate differentially affect different
regions of the country. Perhaps the best-
known example of a natural variation of
the climate is caused by the El
Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
which is currently occurring every sev-
eral years. ENSO has reasonably well-
established effects on seasonal climate
conditions across the country. For exam-
ple, in the El Nino phase, unusually high
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the
eastern and central equatorial Pacific act
to suppress the occurrence of Atlantic
hurricanes (Figure 6-4) and result in
higher-than-average wintertime precipi-
tation in the southwestern and south-
eastern United States, and in
above-average temperatures in the Mid-
west (Figure 6-5). During a strong El
Nino, effects can extend into the north-
ern Great Plains.
During the La Nina phase, which is
characterized by unusually low SSTs off
the west coast of South America, higher-
than-average wintertime temperatures
prevail across the southern half of the
United States, more hurricanes occur in
the tropical Atlantic, and more torna-
does occur in the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys (Figures 6-4 and 6-5). During the
summer, La Nina conditions can con-
tribute to the occurrence of drought in
the eastern half of the United States.
Other factors that affect the inter-
annual variability of the U.S. climate
include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscilla-
tion (NAO).
The PDO is a phenomenon similar
to ENSO, but is most apparent in the
SSTs of the North Pacific Ocean. The
PDO has a periodicity that is on the
order of decades and, like ENSO, has
FIGURE 6-4 Likelihood of Hurricanes to Strike the United States Based on El Nino and
La Nina Occurrence
The frequency at which various numbers of hurricanes struckthe United States during the 20th
century has been found to depend on whether El Nino or La Nina events were occurring.
Because of this observed relationship, changes in the frequency and intensity of these events
are expected to affect the potential for damaging hurricanes striking the United States.
100
1
I
60
40
20
90
La Nina
El Nino
76
67
•
39
ll i
lo lo ,
,0 1 o
Source: Bove et si 1998.
1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or
more more more more more more more
Number of Hurricanes per Year
FIGURE 6-5 Climatic Tendencies across North America during El Nino and
La Nina Events
Temperature and precipitation across North America have tended to vary from normal
wintertime conditions as a result of El Nino (warmer-than-normal) and La Nina (colder-than-
normal) events in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. For many regions, the state of ocean
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has been found to be the most important
determinant of whether winter conditions are relatively wet or dry, or relatively warm or
cold. For example, winters in the Southeast tend to be generally cool and wet during El Nino
(warm) events, and warm and dry during La Nina (cold) events.
Cold-Event Winter (La Nina)
Warm-Event Winter (El Nino)
Source: Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies,
-------
88 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
two distinct phases—a warm phase and
a cool phase. In the warm phase,
oceanic conditions lead to an intensifi-
cation of the storm-generating Aleutian
Low, higher-than-average winter tem-
peratures in the Pacific Northwest, and
relatively high SSTs along the Pacific
Coast. The PDO also leads to dry win-
ters in the Pacific Northwest, but wet-
ter conditions both north and south of
there. Essentially, the opposite condi-
tions occur during the cool phase.
The NAO is a phenomenon that dis-
plays a seesaw in temperatures and
atmospheric pressure between Green-
land and northern Europe. However,
the NAO also includes effects in the
United States. For example, when
Greenland is warmer than normal, the
eastern United States is usually colder,
particularly in winter, and vice-versa.
Given these important and diverse
interactions, research is being intensified
to improve model simulations of natural
climate variations, especially to improve
projections of how such variations are
likely to change. Although projections
remain uncertain, the climate model of
the Max Planck Institute in Germany,
which is currently considered to provide
the most realistic simulation of the
ENSO cycle, calculates stronger and
wider swings between El Nino and La
Nina conditions as the global climate
warms (Timmermann et al. 1999), while
other models simply project more El
Nino-like conditions over the eastern
tropical Pacific Ocean (IPCC 200Id).
Either type of result would be likely to
cause important climate fluctuations
across the United States.
Using the selected model scenarios
as guides, but also examining the poten-
tial consequences of a continuation of
past climate trends and of the possibil-
ity of exceeding particular threshold
conditions, the National Assessment
focused its analyses on evaluating the
potential environmental and societal
consequences of the climate changes
projected for the 21st century, as
described in the next section.
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES
OF AND ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
Since the late 1980s, an increasing
number of studies have been undertaken
to investigate the potential impacts of
climate change on U.S. society and the
environment (e.g., U.S. EPA 1989, U.S.
Congress 1993) and as components of
international assessments (e.g., IPCC
1996a, 1998). While these studies have
generally indicated that many aspects of
the U.S. environment and society are
likely to be sensitive to changes in cli-
mate, they were unable to provide in-
depth perspectives of how various types
of impacts might evolve and interact. In
1997, the interagency U.S. Global
Change Research Program (USGCRP)
initiated a National Assessment process
to evaluate and synthesize available
information about the potential impacts
of climate change for the United States,
to identify options for adapting to cli-
mate change, and to summarize research
needs for improving knowledge about
vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation
(see Chapter 8). The findings were also
undertaken to provide a more in-depth
analysis of the potential time-varying
consequences of climate change for con-
sideration in scheduled international
assessments (IPCC 200la) and to con-
tribute to fulfilling obligations under sec-
tions 4.1(b) and (e) of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Cli-
mate Change.
The U.S. National Assessment was
carried out recognizing that climate
change is only one among many poten-
tial stresses that society and the environ-
ment face, and that, in many cases,
adaptation to climate change can be
accomplished in concert with efforts to
adapt to other stresses. For example, cli-
mate variability and change will interact
with such issues as air and water pollu-
tion, habitat fragmentation, wetland
loss, coastal erosion, and reductions in
fisheries in ways that are likely to com-
pound these stresses. In addition, an
aging national populace and rapidly
growing populations in cities, coastal
areas, and across the South and West are
social factors that interact with and in
some ways can increase the sensitivity of
society to climate variability and change.
In both evaluating potential impacts and
developing effective responses, it is
therefore important to consider interac-
tions among the various stresses.
In considering the potential impacts
of climate change, however, it is also
important to recognize that U.S. cli-
mate conditions vary from the cold of
an Alaskan winter to the heat of a Texas
summer, and from the year-round near-
constancy of temperatures in Hawaii to
the strong variations in North Dakota.
Across this very wide range of climate
conditions and seasonal variation,
American ingenuity and resources have
enabled communities and businesses to
develop, although particular economic
sectors in particular regions can experi-
ence losses and disruptions from
extreme conditions of various types. For
example, the amount of property dam-
age from hurricanes has been rising,
although this seems to be mainly due to
increasing development and population
in vulnerable coastal areas. On the
other hand, the number of deaths each
year from weather extremes and from
climatically dependent infectious dis-
eases has been reduced sharply com-
pared to a century ago, and total deaths
relating to the environment are cur-
rently very small in the context of total
deaths in the United States, even
though the U.S. population has been
rising. In addition, in spite of climate
change, the productivity of the agricul-
ture and forest sectors has never been
higher and continues to rise, with
excess production helping to meet
global demand.
This adaptation to environmental
variations and extremes has been accom-
plished because the public and private
sectors have applied technological
change and knowledge about fluctuating
climate to implement a broad series of
steps that have enhanced resilience and
reduced vulnerability. For example, these
steps have ranged from better design and
construction of buildings and communi-
ties to greater availability of heating in
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 89
Key from III U.S.
Increased warming is projected for the 21st century—Assuming continued growth in
world greenhouse gas emissions, the primary climate models drawn upon forthe analyses
carried out in the U.S. National Assessment projected that temperatures in the contiguous
United States will rise 3-5°C (5-9°F) on average during the 21st century. A wider range of
outcomes, including a smaller warming, is also possible.
Impacts will differ across regions—Climate change and its potential impacts are likely to
vary widely across the country. Temperature increases are likely to vary somewhat among
regions. Heavy precipitation events are projected to become more frequent, yet some
regions are likely to become drier.
Ecosystems are especially vulnerable—Many ecosystems are highly sensitive to the pro-
jected rate and magnitude of climate change, although more efficient water use will help
some ecosystems. A few ecosystems, such as alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains
and some barrier islands, are likely to disappear entirely in some areas. Other ecosystems,
such as southeastern forests, are likely to experience major species shifts or break up into
a mosaic of grasslands, woodlands, and forests. Some of the goods and services lost
through the disappearance or fragmentation of natural ecosystems are likely to be costly
or impossible to replace.
Widespread water concerns arise—Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the
vulnerabilities varies. Drought is an important concern virtually everywhere. Floods and
water quality are concerns in many regions. Snowpack changes are likely to be especially
important in the West, Pacific Northwest, and Alaska.
Food supply is secure—At the national level, the agriculture sector is likely to be able to
adapt to climate change. Mainly because of the beneficial effects of the rising carbon diox-
ide levels on crops, overall U.S. crop productivity, relative to what is projected in the
absence of climate change, is very likely to increase over the next few decades. However,
the gains are not likely to be uniform across the nation. Falling prices are likely to cause dif-
ficulty for some farmers, while benefiting consumers.
Near-term forest growth increases—Forest productivity is likely to increase over the next
several decades in some areas as trees respond to higher carbon dioxide levels by increas-
ing water-use efficiency. Such changes could result in ecological benefits and additional
storage of carbon. Over the longer term, changes in larger-scale processes, such as fire,
insects, droughts, and disease, could decrease forest productivity. In addition, climate
change is likely to cause long-term shifts in forest species, such as sugar maples moving
north out of the country.
Increased damage occurs in coastal and permafrost areas—Climate change and the
resulting rise in sea level are likely to exacerbate threats to buildings, roads, power lines,
and other infrastructure in climate-sensitive areas. For example, infrastructure damage is
expected to result from permafrost melting in Alaska and from sea level rise and storm
surges in low-lying coastal areas.
Adaptation determines health outcomes—A range of negative health impacts is possible
from climate change. However, as in the past, adaptation is likely to help protect much of
the U.S. population. Maintaining our nation's public health and community infrastructure,
from water treatment systems to emergency shelters, will be important for minimizing the
impacts of water-borne diseases, heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and
diseases transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.
Other stresses are magnified by climate change—Climate change is very likely to modify
the cumulative impacts of other stresses. While it may magnify the impacts of some stress-
es, such as air and water pollution and conversion of habitat due to human development
patterns, it may increase agricultural and forest productivity in some areas. For coral reefs,
the combined effects of increased C02 concentration, climate change, and other stresses
are very likely to exceed a critical threshold, causing large, possibly irreversible impacts.
Uncertainties remain and surprises are expected—Significant uncertainties remain in the
science underlying regional changes in climate and their impacts. Further research would
improve understanding and capabilities for projecting societal and ecosystem impacts.
Increased knowledge would also provide the public with additional useful information
about options for adaptation. However, it is likely that some aspects and impacts of climate
change, both positive and negative, will be totally unanticipated as complex systems
respond to ongoing climate change in unforeseeable ways.
Sources; NAST2000,2001.
winter and cooling in summer, and from
better warnings about extreme events to
advances in public health care. Because
of this increasing resilience to climate
variations and relative success in adapt-
ing to the modest changes in climate
that were observed during the 20th cen-
tury, information about likely future cli-
mate changes and continuing efforts to
plan for and adapt to these changes are
likely to prove useful in minimizing
future impacts and preparing to take
advantage of the changing conditions.
With these objectives in mind, the
U.S. National Assessment process,
which is described more completely in
Chapter 8, initiated a set of regional, sec-
toral, and national activities. This page
presents an overview of key national
findings, and the following subsections
elaborate on these findings, covering
both potential consequences and the
types of adaptive steps that are underway
or could be pursued to moderate or deal
with adverse outcomes. The subsections
summarize the types of impacts that are
projected, covering initially the potential
impacts on land cover,- then the potential
impacts on agriculture, forest, and water
resources, which are key natural
resource sectors on which society
depends,- then potential impacts associ-
ated with coastal regions and human
health that define the environment in
which people live,- and finally summa-
rization of the primary issues that are
specific to particular U.S. regions. A full
list of regional, sectoral, and national
reports prepared under the auspices of
the U.S. National Assessment process
and additional materials relating to
research and assessment activities can
be found at http://www.usgcrp.gov.
Potential Interactions
with Land Cover
The natural vegetative cover of the
United States is largely determined by
the prevailing climate and soil. Where
not altered by societal activities, climate
conditions largely determine where
individual species of plants and animals
can live, grow, and reproduce. Thus, the
collections of species that we are familiar
with—e.g., the southeastern mixed
-------
90 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
deciduous forest, the desert ecosystems
of the arid Southwest, the productive
grasslands of the Great Plains—are pri-
marily a consequence of present climate
conditions. Past changes in ecosystems
indicate that some species are so
strongly influenced by the climate to
which they are adapted that they are
vulnerable even to modest changes in
climate. For example, alpine meadows at
high elevations in the West exist where
they do entirely because the plants that
comprise them are adapted to cold con-
ditions that are too harsh for other
species in the region. The desert vegeta-
tion of the Southwest is adapted to the
region's high summer temperatures and
aridity. Similarly, the forests in the East
tend to have adapted to relatively high
rainfall and soil moisture,- if drought con-
ditions were to persist, grasses and
shrubs could begin to out-compete tree
seedlings, leading to completely differ-
ent ecosystems.
To provide a common base of infor-
mation about potential changes in vege-
tation across the nation for use in the
National Assessment (NAST 2000), spe-
cialized ecosystem models were used to
evaluate the potential consequences of
climate change and an increasing CO2
concentration for the dominant vegeta-
tion types. Biogeography models were
used to simulate potential shifts in the
geographic distribution of major plant
species and communities (ecosystem
structure). And biogeochemistry models
were used to simulate changes in basic
ecosystem processes, such as the cycling
of carbon, nutrients, and water (ecosys-
tem function). Each type of model was
used in considering the potential conse-
quences of the two primary model-based
climate scenarios. These scenarios repre-
sented conditions across much of the
United States that were generally either
warmer and moister, or hotter and drier.
The results from both types of models
indicated that changes in ecosystems
would be likely to be significant.
Climate changes that affect the land
surface and terrestrial vegetation will
also have implications for fresh-water
and coastal marine ecosystems that
depend on the temperature of runoff
water, on the amount of erosion, and
on other factors dependent on the land
cover. For example, in aquatic ecosys-
tems, many fish can breed only in water
that falls within a narrow range of tem-
peratures. As a result, species of fish
that are adapted to cool waters can
quickly become unable to breed suc-
cessfully if water temperatures rise. As
another example, because washed-off
soil and nutrients can benefit wetland
species (within limits) and harm estuar-
ine ecosystems, changes in the fre-
quency or intensity of runoff events
caused by changes in land cover can
be important. Such impacts are
described in the subsections dealing
with climate change interactions with
water resources and the coastal envi-
ronment, while issues affecting terres-
trial land cover are covered in the
following subsection.
Redistribution of Land Cover
The responses of ecosystems to pro-
jected changes in climate and CO2 are
made up of the individual responses of
their constituent species and how they
interact with each other. Species in cur-
rent ecosystems can differ substantially
in their tolerances to changes in tem-
perature and precipitation, and in their
responses to changes in the CO2 con-
centration. As a result, the ranges of
individual species are likely to shift at
different rates, and different species are
likely to have different degrees of suc-
cess in establishing themselves in new
locations and environments. While
changes in climate projected for the
coming hundred years are very likely to
alter current ecosystems, projecting
these kinds of biological and ecological
responses and the structure and func-
tioning of the new plant communities is
very difficult.
Analyses of present ecosystem dis-
tributions and of past shifts indicate
that natural ecosystems are sensitive to
changes in surface temperature, precip-
itation patterns, and other climate
parameters and changes in the atmos-
pheric CO2 concentration. For example,
changes in temperature and precipita-
tion of the magnitude being projected
are likely to cause shifts in the areas
occupied by dominant vegetation types
relative to their current distribution.
Some ecosystems that are already con-
strained by climate, such as alpine mead-
ows in the Rocky Mountains, are likely
to face extreme stress and disappear
entirely in some places. Other more
widespread ecosystems are also likely to
be sensitive to climate change. For
example, both climate model scenarios
suggest that the southwestern United
States will become moister, allowing
more vegetation to grow (Figure 6-6).
Such a change is likely to transform
desert landscapes into grasslands or
shrublands, altering both their potential
use and the likelihood of fire. In the
northeastern United States, both cli-
mate scenarios suggest changes mainly
in the species composition of the forests,
including the northward displacement
of sugar maples, which could lead to loss
in some areas. However, the studies also
indicate that conditions in this region
will remain conducive to maintaining a
forested landscape, mainly oak and hick-
ory. In the southeastern United States,
however, there was less agreement
among the models: the hot-dry climate
scenario was projected to lead to
conditions that would be conducive to
the potential breakup of the forest land-
scape into a mosaic of forests, savannas,
and grasslands,- in contrast, the warm-
moist scenario was projected to lead to a
northward expansion of the southeast-
ern mixed forest cover. (See additional
discussion in the Forest subsection.)
Basically, changes in land cover were
projected to occur, at least to some
degree, in all locations, and these
changes cannot generally be prevented
if the climate changes and vegetation
responds as much as projected.
Effects on the Supply of Vital
Ecosystem Goods and Services
In addition to the value of natural
ecosystems in their own right, ecosys-
tems of all types, from the most natural
to the most extensively managed,
provide a variety of goods and services
that benefit society. Some products of
ecosystems enter the market and
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 91
FIGURE 6-6 Potential Effects of Projected Climate Change on Ecosystem Distribution
Both the Hadley and the Canadian models project increasing wintertime precipitation in the U.S. Southwest toward the end of the 21st
century and a conversion of desert ecosystems to shrub and grassland ecosystems.
Current Ecosystems
Canadian Model
Source: R.P. Neilson, USD A Forest Service,
Corvallis, Oregon, as presented in NAST2000.
I Alpine [a Shrubland
•;J Forest . Grassland
Savanna I I Arid Land
Hadley Model
contribute directly to the economy. For
example, forests serve as sources of tim-
ber and pulpwood, and agro-ecosystems
serve as sources of food. Ecosystems
also provide a set of unpriced services
that are valuable but that typically are
not traded in the marketplace. Although
there is no current market, for example,
for the services that forests and wet-
lands provide for improving water qual-
ity, regulating stream flow, providing
some measure of protection from
floods, and sequestering carbon, some
of these services are very valuable to
society. Ecosystems are also valued for
recreational, aesthetic, and ethical rea-
sons. For example, the bird life of the
coastal marshes of the Southeast and
the brilliant autumn colors of the New
England forests are treasured compo-
nents of the nation's regional heritages
and important elements of our quality
of life.
Based on the studies carried out,
changes in land cover induced by
climate change, along with an increased
level of disturbances, could have varied
impacts on ecosystem services, includ-
ing the abilities of ecosystems to
cleanse the air and water, stabilize land-
scapes against erosion, and store car-
bon. Even in such regions as the
Southwest, where vegetation is
expected to increase as a result of
increased rainfall and enhanced plant
growth due to the rising CO2 concen-
tration, an important potential conse-
quence is likely to be a heightened
frequency and intensity of fires during
the prolonged summer season. In-
creased fire frequency would likely be a
threat not only to the natural land
cover, but also to the many residential
structures being built in vulnerable sub-
urban and rural areas, and later would
increase vulnerability to mudslides as a
result of denuded hills. Considering the
full range of available results, it is plau-
sible that climate change-induced alter-
ations to natural ecosystems could
affect the availability of some ecosys-
tem goods and services.
Effects of an Increased C02
Concentration on Plants
The ecosystem models used in the
National Assessment considered the
potential effects of increases in the
atmospheric CO2 concentration be-
cause the CO2 concentration affects
plant species via a direct physiological
effect on photosynthesis (the process by
which plants use CO2 to create new bio-
logical material). Higher CO2 concen-
trations generally enhance plant growth
if the plants also have sufficient water
and nutrients (such as nitrogen) that are
needed to sustain this enhanced growth.
For example, the CO2 level in commer-
cial greenhouses is sometimes boosted to
stimulate plant growth. In addition to
enhancing plant growth, higher CO,
levels can raise the efficiency with which
plants use water and reduce their suscep-
tibility to damage by air pollutants.
As a result of these various influences,
different types of plants respond at dif-
ferent rates to increases in the atmos-
pheric CO2 concentration, resulting in a
divergence of growth rates. Most species
grow faster and increase biomass,- how-
ever, the nutritional value of some of
these plants could be altered. Both
because of biochemical processing and
because warming temperatures increase
plant respiration, the beneficial effects of
increased CO2 on plants are also pro-
jected to flatten at some higher level of
CO, concentration, beyond which con-
tinuing increases in the CO2 concentra-
tion would not enhance plant growth.
While there is still much to be
learned about the CO2 "fertilization"
effect, including its limits and its direct
and indirect implications, many ecosys-
tems are projected to benefit from a
higher CO2 concentration, and plants
will use water more efficiently.
Effects on Storage of Carbon
In response to changes in climate and
the CO, concentration, the biogeo-
-------
92 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
chemistry models used in the National
Assessment generally simulated in-
creases in the amount of carbon stored
in vegetation and soils for the continen-
tal United States. The calculated
increases were relatively small, however,
and not uniform across the country. For
example, one of the biogeochemistry
models, when simulating the effects of
hotter and drier conditions, projected
that the southeastern forests would lose
more carbon by respiration than they
would gain by increased photosynthesis,
causing an overall carbon loss of up to
20 percent by 2030. Such a loss would
indicate that the forests were in a state of
decline. The same biogeochemistry
model, however, when calculating the
potential effects of the warmer and
moister climate scenario, projected that
forests in the same part of the Southeast
would likely gain between 5 and 10 per-
cent in carbon over the next 30 years,
suggesting a more vigorous forest.
Susceptibility of Ecosystems
to Disturbances
Prolonged stress due to insufficient
soil moisture can make trees more sus-
ceptible to insect attack, lead to plant
death, and increase the probability of
fire as dead plant material adds to an
ecosystem's "fuel load." The biogeogra-
phy models used in this analysis simu-
lated at least part of this sequence of
climate-triggered events in ecosystems
as a prelude to calculating shifts in the
geographic distribution of major plant
species.
For example, one of the biogeogra-
phy models projected that a hot, dry
climate in the Southeast would be likely
to result in the replacement of the cur-
rent mixed evergreen and deciduous
forests by savanna/woodlands and
grasslands, with much of the change
effected by an increased incidence of
fire. Yet the same biogeography model
projected a slight northward expansion
of the mixed evergreen and deciduous
forests of the Southeast in response to
the warm, moist climate scenario, with
no significant contraction along the
southern boundary. Thus, in this
region, changes in the frequency and
intensity of such disturbances as fire are
likely to be major determinants of the
type and rapidity of the conversion of
the land cover to a new state.
As explained more fully in the sec-
tions on the interactions of climate
change with coastal and water
resources, aquatic ecosystems are also
likely to be affected by both climate
change and unusual disturbances, such
as storms and storm surges.
Potential Adaptation Options to
Preserve Prevailing Land Cover
The National Assessment concluded
that the potential vulnerability of natu-
ral ecosystems is likely to be more
important than other types of potential
impacts affecting the U.S. environment
and society. This importance arises
because in many cases little can be done
to help these ecosystems adapt to the
projected rate and amount of
climate change. While adjustments in
how some systems are managed can
perhaps reduce the potential impacts,
the complex, interdependent webs that
have been naturally generated over very
long periods are not readily shifted
from one place to another or easily
recreated in new locations, even to
regions of similar temperature and
moisture. Although many regions have
experienced changes in ecosystems as a
result of human-induced changes in
land cover, and people have generally
become adapted to—and have even
become defenders of—the altered con-
ditions (e.g., reforestation of New Eng-
land), the climate-induced changes
during the 21st century are likely to
affect virtually every region of the
country—both the ecosystems where
people live, as well as those in the pro-
tected areas that have been created as
refuges against change.
Potential Interactions
with Agriculture
U.S. croplands, grassland pasture,
and range occupy about 420 million
hectares (about 1,030 million acres),
or nearly 55 percent of the U.S. land
area, excluding Alaska and Hawaii
(USDA/ERS 2000). Throughout the
20th century, agricultural production
shifted toward the West and Southwest.
This trend allowed regrowth of some
forests and grasslands, generally enhanc-
ing wildlife habitats, especially in the
Northeast, and contributing to seques-
tration of carbon in these regions.
U.S. food production and distribu-
tion comprise about 10 percent of the
U.S. economy. The value of U.S. agri-
cultural commodities (food and fiber)
exceeds $165 billion at the farm level
and over $500 billion after processing
and marketing, Because of the produc-
tivity of U.S. agriculture, the United
States is a major supplier of food and
fiber for the world, accounting for more
than 25 percent of total global trade in
wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton.
Changes in Agricultural
Productivity
U.S. agricultural productivity has
improved by over 1 percent a year since
1950, resulting in a decline in both pro-
duction costs and commodity prices,
limiting the net conversion of natural
habitat to cropland, and freeing up land
for the Conservation Reserve Program.
Although the increased production and
the two-thirds drop in real commodity
prices have been particularly beneficial
to consumers inside and outside the
United States and have helped to
reduce hunger and malnourishment
around the world, the lower prices have
become a major concern for producers
and have contributed to the continuing
decline in the number of small farmers
across the country. Continuation of
these trends is expected, regardless of
whether climate changes, with continu-
ing pressures on individual producers to
further increase productivity and
reduce production costs.
On the other hand, producers con-
sider anything that might increase their
costs relative to other producers or that
might limit their markets as a threat to
their economic well-being. Issues of
concern include regulatory actions,
such as efforts to control the off-site
consequences of soil erosion, agricul-
tural chemicals, and livestock wastes,-
extreme weather or climate events,- new
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 93
pests,- and the development of pest
resistance to existing pest control
strategies.
Future changes in climate are
expected to interact with all of these
issues. In particular, although some fac-
tors may tend to limit growth in yields,
rising CO2 concentrations and continu-
ing climate change are projected, on
average, to contribute to extending the
persistent upward trend in crop yields
that has been evident during the second
half of the 20th century. In addition, if
all else remains equal, these changes
could change supplies of and require-
ments for irrigation water, increase the
need for fertilizers to sustain the gain in
carbon production, lead to changes in
surface-water quality, necessitate
increased use of pesticides or other
means to limit damage from pests, and
alter the variability of the climate
to which the prevailing agricultural
sector has become accustomed. How-
ever, agricultural technology is cur-
rently undergoing rapid change, and
future production technologies and
practices seem likely to be able to con-
tain or reduce these impacts.
Assuming that technological ad-
vances continue at historical rates, that
there are no dramatic changes in federal
policies or in international markets, that
adequate supplies of nutrients are avail-
able and can be applied without exacer-
bating pollution problems, and that no
prolonged droughts occur in major
agricultural regions, U.S. analyses indi-
cate that it is unlikely that climate
change will imperil the ability of the
United States to feed its population and
to export substantial amounts of food-
stuffs (NAAG 2002). These studies
indicate that, at the national level, over-
all agricultural productivity is likely to
increase as a result of changes in the
CO2 concentration and in climate pro-
jected for at least the next several
decades. The crop models used in these
studies assume that the CO2 fertiliza-
tion effect will be strongly beneficial
and will also allow for a limited set of
m-farm adaptation options, including
changing planting dates and varieties,
in res-ponse to the changing condi-
tions. These adaptation measures con-
tribute small additional gains in yields of
dry-land crops and greater gains in
yields of irrigated crops. However,
analyses performed to date have neither
considered all of the consequences of
possible changes in pests, diseases,
insects, and extreme events that may
result, nor been able to consider the full
range of potential adaptation options
(e.g., genetic modification of crops to
enhance resistance to pests, insects, and
diseases).
Recognizing these limitations, avail-
able evaluations of the effects of
anticipated changes in the CO2 concen-
tration and climate on crop production
and yield and the adaptive actions by
farmers generally show positive results
for cotton, corn for grain and silage,
soybeans, sorghum, barley, sugar beets,
and citrus fruits (Figure 6-7). The pro-
ductivity of pastures may also increase as
a result of these changes. For other
crops, including wheat, rice, oats, hay,
sugar cane, potatoes, and tomatoes,
yields are projected to increase under
some conditions and decrease under
others, as explained more fully in the
agriculture assessment (NAAG 2002).
The studies also indicate that not all
U.S. agricultural regions are likely to be
affected to the same degree by the pro-
jected changes in climate that have been
investigated. In general, northern areas,
such as the Midwest, West, and Pacific
Northwest, are projected to show large
gains in yields, while influences on crop
yields in other regions vary more widely,
depending on the climate scenario and
time period. For example, projected
wheat yields in the southern Great Plains
could decline if the warming is not
accompanied by sufficient precipitation.
These analyses used market-scale
economic models to evaluate the overall
economic implications for various crops.
These models allow for a wide range of
adaptations in response to changing pro-
ductivity, prices, and resource use,
including changes in irrigation, use of
fertilizer and pesticides, crops grown
and the location of cropping, and a vari-
ety of other farm management options.
Based on studies to date, unless there is
inadequate or poorly distributed precip-
itation, the net effects of climate change
on the agricultural segment of the U.S.
economy over the 21st century are gen-
erally projected to be positive. These
studies indicate that, economically, con-
sumers are likely to benefit more from
lower prices than producers suffer from
the decline in profits. Complicating the
analyses, however, the studies indicate
that producer versus consumer effects
will depend on how climate change
affects production of these crops else-
where in the world. For example, for
crops grown in the United States, eco-
nomic losses to farmers due to lower
commodity prices are offset under some
conditions by an increased advantage of
U.S. farmers over foreign competitors,
leading to an increased volume of
exports.
Because U.S. food variety and sup-
plies depend not only on foodstuffs pro-
duced nationally, the net effect of
climate change on foods available for
U.S. consumers will also depend on the
effects of climate change on global pro-
duction of these foodstuffs. These
effects will in turn depend not only on
international markets, but also on how
farmers around the world are able to
adapt to climate change and other fac-
tors they will face. While there are likely
to be many regional variations, experi-
ence indicates that research sponsored
by the United States and other nations
has played an important role in promot-
ing the ongoing, long-term increase in
global agricultural productivity. Further
research, covering opportunities ranging
from genetic design to improving the
salt tolerance of key crops, is expected
to continue to enhance overall global
production of foodstuffs.
Changes in Water Demands
by Agriculture
Within the United States, a key
determinant of agricultural productivity
will be the ongoing availability of suffi-
cient water where and when it is
needed. The variability of the U.S. cli-
mate has provided many opportunities
for learning to deal with a wide range of
climate conditions, and the U.S. regions
-------
94 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
FIGURE 0-7 Effects of Potential Changes in Climate on U.S Crop Yields
Results for 16 crops, given as the percentage differences between future yields for two periods (2030s and 2090s) and current yields indicate that
warmer climate conditions are likely to lead to increased yields for most crops. The results consider the physiological responses of the crops to
future climate conditions under either dry-land or irrigated cultivation, assuming a limited set of reasonable adaptive response by producers.
Climate scenarios a re drawn from two different climate models that are likely to span the range of changes of future conditions, ranging from the
warm-moist changes projected by the U.K.'s Hadley Centre model (version 2) to the hot-dry changes projected by the Canadian Climate Centre
model. The most positive responses resulted when conditions were warmer and wetter in key growing regions (e.g., cotton), when frost occur-
rence was reduced (e.g., grapefruit), and when northern areas warmed (e.g., silage from pasture improvement).
Cotton
Corn
Soybeans
Spring Wheat
Winter Weal
Sorghum
Canadian Scenario, 2030s
Canadian Scenario, 2090s
Hadley Scenario, 2030s
Hadley Scenario, 2090s
Grapefruit,
Processed
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
Source: NAAG 2002.
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 95
where many crops are grown have
changed over time without disrupting
production. In addition, steps to buildup
the amount of carbon in soils—which is
likely to be one component of any car-
bon mitigation program—will enhance
the water-holding capacity of soils and
decrease erosion and vulnerability to
drought, thereby helping to improve
overall agricultural productivity. For
areas that are insufficiently moist, irriga-
tion has been used to enhance crop pro-
ductivity. In addition, about 27 percent
of U.S. cultivated land is currently under
reduced tillage. Several projects, such as
the Iowa Soil Carbon Sequestration Pro-
ject, that are underway to promote con-
servation tillage practices as a means to
mitigate climate change will have the
ancillary benefits of reducing soil ero-
sion and runoff while increasing soil
water and nitrogen retention.
Analyses conducted for the National
Assessment project that climate change
will lead to changes in the demand for
irrigation water and, if water resources
are insufficient, to changes in the crops
being grown. Although regional differ-
ences will likely be substantial, model
projections indicate that, on average for
the nation, agriculture's need for irriga-
tion water is likely to slowly decline. At
least two factors are responsible for this
projected reduction: (1) precipitation
will increase in some agricultural areas,
and (2) faster development of crops due
to higher temperatures and an increased
CO2 concentration is likely to result in a
shorter growing period and consequently
a reduced demand for irrigation water.
Moreover, a higher CO2 concentration
generally enhance a plant's water-use effi-
ciency. These factors can combine to
compensate for the increased transpira-
tion and soil water loss due to higher air
temperatures. However, a decreased
period of crop growth also leads to
decreased yields, although it may be pos-
sible to overcome this disadvantage
through crop breeding.
Changes in Surface-Water
Quality due to Agriculture
Potential changes in surface-water
quality as a result of climate change is an
issue that has only started to be investi-
gated. For example, in recent decades,
soil erosion and excess nutrient runoff
from crop and livestock production have
severely degraded Chesapeake Bay, a
highly valuable natural resource. In simu-
lations for the National Assessment,
loading of excess nitrogen from corn
production into Chesapeake Bay is pro-
jected to increase due to both the change
in average climate conditions and the
effects of projected changes in extreme
weather events, such as floods or heavy
downpours that wash large amounts of
fertilizers and animal manure into surface
waters. Across the country, changes in
future farm practice (such as no-till or
reduced-till agriculture) that enhance
buildup and retention of soil moisture,
and better matching of the timing of
a crop's need for fertilizer with the
timing of application are examples of
approaches that could reduce projected
adverse impacts on water quality. In addi-
tion, the potential for reducing adverse
impacts of fertilizer application and soil
erosion by using genetically modified
crops has not yet been considered.
Changes in Pesticide
Use by Agriculture
Climate change is projected to cause
farmers in most regions to increase their
use of pesticides to sustain the productiv-
ity of current crop strains. While this
increase is expected to result in slightly
poorer overall economic performance,
this effect is minimal because pesticide
expenditures are a relatively small share
of production costs. Neither the poten-
tial changes in environmental impacts as
a result of increased pesticide use nor the
potential for genetic modification to
enhance pest resistance have yet been
evaluated.
Effects of Changes in Climate
Variability on Agriculture
Based on experience, agriculture is
also likely to be affected if the extent and
occurrence of climate fluctuations and
extreme events change. The vulnerability
of agricultural systems to climate and
weather extremes varies with location
because of differences in soils, produc-
tion systems, and other factors. Changes
in the form (rain, snow, or hail), timing,
frequency, and intensity of precipitation,
and changes in wind-driven events (e.g.,
wind storms, hurricanes, and tornadoes)
are likely to have significant conse-
quences in particular regions. For exam-
ple, in the absence of adaptive measures,
an increase in heavy precipitation events
seems likely in some areas to aggravate
erosion, water-logging of soils, and
leaching of animal wastes, pesticides,
fertilizers, and other chemicals into sur-
face and ground water. Conversely,
lower precipitation in other areas may
reduce some types of impacts.
A major source of U.S. climate vari-
ability is the El Nino—Southern Oscilla-
tion (ENSO). The effects of ENSO
events vary widely across the country,
creating wet conditions in some areas
and dry conditions in others that can
have significant impacts on agricultural
production. For example, over the past
several decades, average corn yield has
been reduced by about 15-30 percent
in years with widespread floods or
drought. Better prediction of such vari-
ations is a major focus of U.S. and inter-
national research activities (e.g.,
through the International Research
Institute for Climate Prediction)
because, in part, such information could
increase the range of adaptive responses
available to farmers. For example, given
sufficient warning of climate anomalies
(e.g., of conditions being warm and dry,
cool and moist, etc.), crop species and
crop planting dates could be optimized
for the predicted variation, helping to
reduce the adverse impact on yields and
overall production. Because long-term
projections suggest that ENSO varia-
tions may become even stronger as
global average temperature increases,
achieving even better predictive skill in
the future will be especially important
to efforts to maximize production in
the face of climate fluctuations.
Potential Adaptation
Strategies for Agriculture
To ameliorate the deleterious effects
of climate change generally, such adap-
tation strategies as changing planting
-------
96 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
dates and varieties are likely to help to
significantly offset economic losses and
increase relative yields. Adaptive meas-
ures are likely to be particularly critical
for the Southeast because of the large
reductions in yields projected for some
crops if summer precipitation declines.
With the wide range of growing condi-
tions across the United States, specific
breeding for response to CO2 is likely
to be required to more fully benefit
from the CO, fertilization effect
detected in experimental crop studies.
Breeding for tolerance to climatic stress
has already been exploited, and vari-
eties that do best under ideal condi-
tions usually also out-perform other
varieties under stress conditions.
Although many types of changes
can likely be adapted to, some adapta-
tions to climate change and its impacts
may have negative secondary effects.
For example, an analysis of the poten-
tial effects of climate change on water
use from the Edward's aquifer region
near San Antonio, Texas, found
increased demand for ground-water
resources. Increased water use from this
aquifer would threaten endangered
species dependent on flows from
springs supported by the aquifer.
In addition, in the absence of
genetic modification of available crop
species to counter these influences,
pesticide and herbicide use is likely to
increase with warming. Greater chemi-
cal inputs would be expected to
increase the potential for chemically
contaminated runoff reaching prairie
wetlands and ground water, which, if
not controlled by on-site measures,
could pollute rivers and lakes, drinking-
water supplies, coastal waters, recre-
ation areas, and waterfowl habitat.
As in the past, farmers will need to
continue to adapt to the changing con-
ditions affecting agriculture, and
changing climate is likely to become an
increasingly influential factor. Presum-
ing adaptation to changing climate
conditions is successful, the U.S. agri-
cultural sector should remain strong—
growing more on less land while
continuing to lower prices for the con-
sumer, exporting large amounts of food
to help feed the world, and storing car-
bon to enhance resilience to drought
and contribute to the slowing of climate
change.
Potential Interactions
with Forests
Forests cover nearly one-third of the
United States, providing wildlife habi-
tat,- clean air and water,- carbon storage,-
and recreational opportunities, such as
hiking, camping, and fishing. In addi-
tion, harvested products include timber,
pulpwood, fuelwood, wild game, ferns,
mushrooms, berries, and much more.
This wealth of products and services
depends on forest productivity and bio-
diversity, which are in turn strongly
influenced by climate.
Across the country, native forests
are adapted to the local climates in
which they developed, such as the cold-
tolerant boreal forests of Alaska, the
summer drought-tolerant forests of the
Pacific Northwest, and the drought-
adapted pinon-juniper forests of the
Southwest. Given the overall impor-
tance of the nation's forests, the poten-
tial impacts from climate change are
receiving close attention, although it is
only one of several factors meriting
consideration.
A range of human activities causes
changes in forests. For example, signifi-
cant areas of native forests have been
converted to agricultural use, and
expansion of urban areas has frag-
mented forests into smaller, less con-
tiguous patches. In some parts of the
country, intensive management and
favorable climates have resulted in
development of highly productive
forests, such as southern pine planta-
tions, in place of the natural land cover.
Fire suppression, particularly in south-
eastern, midwestern, and western
forests, has also led to changes in forest
area and in species composition. Har-
vesting methods have also changed
species composition, while planting
trees for aesthetic and landscaping pur-
poses in urban and rural areas has
expanded the presence of some species.
In addition, large areas, particularly in
the Northeast, have become reforested
as forests have taken over abandoned
agricultural lands, allowing reestablish-
ment of the ranges of many wildlife
species.
Changes in climate and in the CO2
concentration are emerging as impor-
tant human-induced influences that are
affecting forests. These factors are
interacting with factors already causing
changes in forests to further affect the
socioeconomic benefits and the goods
and services forests provide, including
the extent, composition, and produc-
tivity of forests,- the frequency and
intensity of such natural disturbances as
fire,- and the level of biodiversity
(NFAG 2001). Based on model projec-
tions of moderate to large warming,
Figure 6-8 gives an example of the gen-
eral character of changes that could
occur for forests in the eastern United
States by the late 21 st century.
Effects on Forest Productivity
A synthesis of laboratory and field
studies and modeling indicates that the
fertilizing effect of atmospheric CO2
will increase forest productivity. How-
ever, increases are likely to be strongly
tempered by local conditions, such as
moisture stress and nutrient availability.
Across a wide range of scenarios, mod-
est warming is likely to result in
increased carbon storage in most U.S.
forests, although under some of the
warmer model scenarios, forests in the
Southeast and the Northwest could
experience drought-induced losses of
carbon, possibly exacerbated by
increased fire disturbance. These
potential gains and losses of carbon
would be in addition to changes result-
ing from changes in land use, such as
the conversion of forests to agricultural
lands or development.
Other components of environmen-
tal change, such as nitrogen deposition
and ground-level ozone concentra-
tions, are also affecting forest
processes. Models used in the forest
sector assessment suggest a synergistic
fertilization response between CO,
and nitrogen enrichment, leading to
further increases in productivity
(NFAG 2001). However, ozone acts in
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 97
the opposite direction. Current ozone
levels, for example, have important
effects on many herbaceous species and
are estimated to decrease production in
southern pine plantations by 5 percent,
in northeastern forests by 10 percent,
and in some western forests by even
more. Interactions among these physi-
cal and chemical changes and other
components of global change will be
important in projecting the future state
of U.S. forests. For example, a higher
CO2 concentration can tend to sup-
press the impacts of ozone on plants.
Effects on Natural Disturbances
Natural disturbances having the
greatest effects on forests include
insects, disease, non-native species, fires,
droughts, hurricanes, landslides, wind
storms, and ice storms. While some tree
species are very susceptible to fire,
others, such as lodgepole pine, are
dependent on occasional fires for suc-
cessful reproduction.
Over millennia, local, regional, and
global-scale changes in temperature
and precipitation have influenced the
occurrence, frequency, and intensity of
these natural disturbances. These
changes in disturbance regimes are a
natural part of all ecosystems. However,
as a consequence of climate change,
forests may soon be facing more rapid
alterations in the nature of these distur-
bances. For example, unless there is a
large increase in precipitation, the sea-
sonal severity of fire hazard is projected
to increase during the 21 st century over
much of the country, particularly in the
Southeast and Alaska.
The consequences of drought
depend on annual and seasonal climate
changes and whether the current adap-
tations of forests to drought will offer
resistance and resilience to new condi-
tions. The ecological models used in
the National Assessment indicated that
increases in drought stresses are most
likely to occur in the forests of the
Southeast, southern Rocky Mountains,
and parts of the Northwest. Hurricanes,
ice storms, wind storms, landslides,
insect infestations, disease, and intro-
duced species are also likely to be
climate-modulated influences that
affect forests. However, projection of
changes in the frequencies, intensities,
and locations of such factors and their
influences are difficult to project. What
is clear is that, as climate changes, alter-
ations in these disturbances and in their
effects on forests are possible.
Effects on Forest Biodiversity
In addition to the very large influ-
ences of changes in land cover, changes
in the distribution and abundance of
plant and animal species are a result of
both (1) the birth, growth, death, and
dispersal rates of individuals in a popula-
tion and (2) the competition between
individuals of the same species and other
species. These can all be influenced in
turn by weather, climate, contaminants,
nutrients, and other abiotic factors.
When aggregated, these processes can
result in the local disappearance or
FIGURE 6-8 Potential Effects of Projected Climate Change on Dominant Forest Types
Both the warm-moist climate change scenario from the Hadley climate model and the hot-dry scenario from the Canadian climate model sug-
gest a significant northward shift in prevailing forest types. For example, the maple-beech-birch forest type is projected to shift north into
Canada and no longer be dominant in the late 21st century in the northeastern United States.
Current- 1960-1990
Canadian Scenario - 2070-2100
Hadley Scenario - 2070-2100
White-Red-Jack Pine
Spruce-Fir
Longleaf-Slash Pine
Loblolly-Shortleaf Pine
Dak-Pine
Dak-Hickory
Dak-Gum-Cypress
Elm-Ash-Cottonweed
J Maple-Beech-Birch
_] Aspen-Birch
No Data
Note: All cases were calculated using the DISTRIB tree species distribution model, which calculates the most likely dominant types of vegetation for the given climatic conditions,
assuming they have persisted for several decades.
Source: A.M. Prasad and L. R. Iverson, Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio, as reported in NAST2000.
-------
98 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
introduction of a species, and ultimately
determine the species' range and influ-
ence its population.
Although climate and soils exert
strong controls on the establishment and
growth of plant species, the response of
plant and animal species to climate
change will be the result of many inter-
acting and interrelated processes operat-
ing over several temporal and spatial
scales. Movement and migration rates,
changes in disturbance regimes and abi-
otic environmental variables, and inter-
actions within and between species will
all affect the distributions and popula-
tions of plants and animals.
Analyses conducted using ecological
models indicate that plausible climate
scenarios are very likely to cause shifts
in the location and area of the potential
habitats for many tree species. For
example, potential habitats for trees
acclimated to cool environments are
very likely to shift northward. Habitats
of alpine and sub-alpine spruce-fir in
the contiguous United States are likely
to be reduced and, possibly in the long
term, eliminated as their mountain
habitats warm. The extents of aspen,
eastern birch, and sugar maple are
likely to contract dramatically in the
United States and largely shift into
Canada, with the shift in sugar maple
causing loss of syrup production in
northern New York and New England.
In contrast, oak/hickory and oak/pine
could expand in the East, and Pon-
derosa pine and arid woodland commu-
nities could expand in the West. How
well these species track changes in their
potential habitats will be strongly influ-
enced by the viability of their mecha-
nisms for dispersal to other locations
and the disturbances to these alterna-
tive environments.
Because of the dominance of non-
forest land uses along migration routes,
the northward shift of some native
species to new habitats is likely to be
disrupted if the rate of climate change is
too rapid. For example, conifer
encroachment, grazing, invasive
species, and urban expansion are cur-
rently displacing sagebrush and aspen
communities. The effects of climate
change on the rate and magnitude of
disturbance (forest damage and
destruction associated with fires,
storms, droughts, and pest outbreaks)
will be important factors in determining
whether transitions from one forest
type to another will be gradual or
abrupt. If the rate and type of distur-
bances in New England do not increase,
for example, a smooth transition from
the present maple, beech, and birch
tree species to oak and hickory may
occur. Where the frequency or inten-
sity of disturbances increases, however,
transitions are very likely to occur more
rapidly. As these changes occur, inva-
sive (weedy) species that disperse rap-
idly are likely to find opportunities in
newly forming ecological communities.
As a result, the species composition of
these communities will likely differ sig-
nificantly in some areas from those
occupying similar habitats today.
Changes in the composition of
ecosystems may, in turn, have impor-
tant effects on wildlife. For example, to
the extent that climate change and a
higher CO2 concentration increase for-
est productivity, this might result in
reduced overall land disturbance and
improved water quality, tending to help
wildlife, at least in some areas. How-
ever, changes in composition can also
affect predator-prey relationships, pest
types and populations, the potential for
non-native species, links in the chain of
migratory habitats, the health of key-
stone species, and other factors. Given
these many possibilities, much remains
to be examined in projecting influences
of climate change on wildlife.
Socioeconomic Impacts
North America is the world's leading
producer and consumer of wood prod-
ucts. U.S. forests provide for substantial
exports of hardwood lumber, wood
chips, logs, and some types of paper.
Coming the other way, the United
States imports, for example, about 35
percent of its softwood lumber and
more than half of its newsprint from
Canada.
The U.S. market for wood products
will be highly dependent upon the
future area in forests, the species com-
position of forests, future supplies of
wood, technological changes in pro-
duction and use, the availability of such
substitutes as steel and vinyl, national
and international demands for wood
products, and competitiveness among
major trading partners. Analyses indi-
cate that, for a range of climate scenar-
ios, forest productivity gains are very
likely to increase timber inventories
over the next 100 years (NFAG 2001).
Under these scenarios, the increased
wood supply leads to reductions in log
prices, helping consumers, but
decreasing producers' profits. The pro-
jected net effect on the economic wel-
fare of participants in timber markets
increases by about 1 percent above
current values.
Analyses conducted for the forest
sector assessment indicate that land use
will likely shift between forestry and
agriculture as these economic sectors
adjust to climate-induced changes in
production. U.S. hardwood and soft-
wood production is projected to gener-
ally increase, although the projections
indicate that softwood output will only
increase under moderate warming. Tim-
ber output is also projected to increase
more in the South than in the North,
and saw-timber volume is projected to
increase more than pulpwood volume.
Patterns and seasons of outdoor,
forest-oriented recreation are likely to
be modified by the projected changes in
climate. For example, changes in forest-
oriented recreation, as measured by
aggregate days of activities and total
economic value, are likely to be affected
and are likely to vary by type of recre-
ation and location. In some areas, higher
temperatures are likely to shift typical
summer recreation activities, such as
hiking, northward or to higher eleva-
tions and into other seasons. In winter,
downhill skiing opportunities are very
likely to shift geographically because of
fewer cold days and reduced snowpack
in many existing ski areas. Therefore,
costs to maintain skiing opportunities
are likely to rise, especially for the more
southern areas. Effects on fishing are
also likely to vary. For example, warmer
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 99
waters are likely to increase fish produc-
tion and opportunities to fish for some
warm-water species, but decrease habi-
tat and opportunities to fish for cold-
water species.
Possible Adaptation
Strategies to Protect Forests
Even though forests are likely to be
affected by the projected changes in
climate, the motivation for adaptation
strategies is likely to be most strongly
influenced by the level of U.S. eco-
nomic activity. This level, in turn, is
intertwined with the rate of population
growth, changes in taste, and general
preferences, including society's per-
ceptions about these changes. Market
forces have proven to be powerful
when it comes to decisions involving
land use and forestry and, as such, will
strongly influence adaptation on pri-
vate lands. For forests valued for their
current biodiversity, society and land
managers will have to decide whether
more intense management is necessary
and appropriate for maintaining plant
and animal species that may be
affected by climate change and other
factors.
If new technologies and markets are
recognized in a timely manner, timber
producers could adjust and adapt to
climate change under plausible climate
scenarios. One possible adaptation
measure could be to salvage dead and
dying timber and to replant species
adapted to the changed climate condi-
tions. The extent and pattern of U.S.
timber harvesting and prices will also
be influenced by the global changes in
forest productivity and prices of over-
seas products.
Potential climate-induced changes
in forests must also be put into the
context of other human-induced pres-
sures, which will undoubtedly change
significantly over future decades.
While the potential for rapid changes
in natural disturbances could challenge
current management strategies, these
changes will occur simultaneously with
human activities, such as agricultural
and urban encroachment on forests,
multiple uses of forests, and air pollu-
tion. Given these many interacting fac-
tors, climate-induced changes should
be manageable if planning is proactive.
Potential Interactions
with Water Resources
Water is a central resource support-
ing human activities and ecosystems,
and adaptive management of this
resource has been an essential aspect of
societal development. Increases in
global temperatures during the 20th
century have been accompanied by
more precipitation in the middle and
high latitudes in many regions of North
America. For example, U.S. precipita-
tion increased by 5-10 percent, pre-
dominantly from the spring through the
autumn. Much of this increase resulted
from a rise in locally heavy and very
heavy precipitation events, which has
led to the observed increases in low to
moderate stream flow that have been
characteristic of the warm season across
most of the contiguous United States.
Local to global aspects of the hydro-
logic cycle, which determine the avail-
ability of water resources, are likely to
be altered in important ways by climate
change (NWAG 2000). Because higher
concentrations of CO2 and other green-
house gases tend to warm the surface,
all models project that the global totals
of both evaporation and precipitation
will continue to increase, with increases
particularly likely in middle and high
latitudes.
The regional patterns of the pro-
jected changes in precipitation remain
uncertain, however, although there are
some indications that changes in atmos-
pheric circulation brought on by such
factors as increasing Pacific Ocean tem-
peratures may bring more precipitation
to the Southwest and more winter pre-
cipitation to the West. Continuing
trends first evident during the 20th cen-
tury, model simulations project that
increases in precipitation are likely to
be most evident in the most intense
rainfall categories typical of various
regions. To the extent such increases
occur during the warm season when
stream flows are typically low to mod-
erate, they could augment available
water resources. If increases in precipi-
tation occur during high stream flow or
saturated soil conditions, the results
suggest a greater potential for flooding
in susceptible areas where additional
control measures are not taken, espe-
cially because under these conditions
the relative increase in runoff is gener-
ally observed to be greater than the rel-
ative increase in precipitation.
Effects on Available
Water Supplies
Water is a critical national resource,
providing services to society for refresh-
ment, irrigation of crops, nourishment of
ecosystems, creation of hydroelectric
power, industrial processing, and more.
Many U.S. rivers and streams do not
have enough water to satisfy existing
water rights and claims. Changing public
values about preserving in-stream flows,
protecting endangered species, and set-
tling Indian water rights claims have
made competition for water supplies
increasingly intense. Depending on how
water managers are able to take adaptive
measures, the potential impacts of cli-
mate change could include increased
competition for water supplies, stresses
on water quality in areas where flows are
diminished, adverse impacts on ground-
water quantity and quality, an increased
possibility of flooding in the winter and
early spring, a reduced possibility of
flooding later in the spring, and more
water shortages in the summer. In some
areas, however, an increase in precipita-
tion could outweigh these factors and
increase available supplies.
Significant changes in average tem-
perature, precipitation, and soil moisture
resulting from climate change are also
likely to affect water demand in most
sectors. For example, demand for water
associated with electric power genera-
tion is projected to increase due to the
increasing demand for air conditioning
with higher summer temperatures.
Climate change is also likely to reduce
water levels in the Great Lakes and sum-
mertime river levels in the central United
States, thereby adversely affecting navi-
gation, general water supplies, and pop-
ulations of aquatic species.
-------
100 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Effects on Water Quality
Increases in heavy precipitation
events are likely to flush more contam-
inants and sediments into lakes and
rivers, degrading water quality. Where
uptake of agricultural chemicals and
other nonpoint sources could be exa-
cerbated, steps to limit water pollution
are likely to be needed. In some
regions, however, higher average flows
will likely dilute pollutants and, thus,
improve water quality. In coastal
regions where river flows are reduced,
increased salinity could also become
more of a problem. Flooding can also
cause overloading of storm-water and
wastewater systems, and can damage
water and sewage treatment facilities,
mine tailing impoundments, and land-
fills, thereby increasing the risks of con-
tamination and toxicity.
Because the warmer temperatures will
lead to increased evaporation, soil mois-
ture is likely to be reduced during the
warm season. Although this effect is
likely be alleviated somewhat by
increased efficiency in water use and
reduced demand by native plants for
water, the drying is likely to create a
greater susceptibility to fire and then
loss of the vegetation that helps to
control erosion and sediment flows. In
agricultural areas, the CO2-induced
improvement of water-use efficiency by
crops is likely to decrease demands for
water, particularly for irrigation water. In
addition, in some regions, increasing no-
till or reduced-till agriculture is likely to
improve the water-holding capacity of
soils, regardless of whether climate
changes, thereby reducing the suscepti-
bility of agricultural lands to erosion
from intensified heavy rains (NAAG
2002, NWAG 2000).
Effects on Snowpack
Rising temperatures are very likely to
affect snowfall and increase snowmelt
conditions in much of the western and
northern portions of the country that
depend on winter snowpack for runoff.
This is particularly important because
snowpack provides a natural reservoir
for water storage in mountainous areas,
gradually releasing its water in spring
and even summer under current climate
conditions.
Model simulations project that snow-
pack in western mountain regions is
likely to decrease as U.S. climate warms
(Figure 6-9). These reductions are pro-
jected, despite an overall increase in pre-
cipitation, because (1) a larger fraction of
precipitation will fall as rain, rather than
snow,- and (2) the snowpack is likely to
develop later and melt earlier. The
resulting changes in the amount and tim-
ing of runoff are very likely to have sig-
nificant implications in some basins for
water management, flood protection,
power production, water quality, and the
availability of water resources for irriga-
tion, hydropower, communities, indus-
try, and the sustainability of natural
habitats and species.
Effects on Ground-Water
Quantity and Quality
Several U.S. regions, including
parts of California and the Great
Plains, are dependent on dwindling
ground-water supplies. Although
ground-water supplies are less suscep-
tible to short-term climate variability
than surface-water supplies, they are
more affected by long-term trends.
Ground water serves as the base flow
for many streams and rivers. Especially
in areas where springtime snow cover
is reduced and where higher summer
temperatures increase evaporation and
use of ground water for irrigation,
ground-water levels are very likely to
fall, thus reducing seasonal stream
flows. River and stream temperatures
fluctuate more rapidly with reduced
volumes of water, affecting fresh-water
and estuarine habitats. Small streams
that are heavily influenced by ground
water are more likely to have reduced
flows and changes in seasonality of
flows, which in turn is likely to damage
existing wetland habitats.
Pumping ground water at a faster rate
than it can be recharged is already a
major concern, especially in parts of the
country where other water resources are
limited. In the Great Plains, for example,
model projections indicate that drought
is likely to be more frequent and intense,
which will create additional stresses
because ground-water levels are already
dropping in parts of important aquifers,
such as the Ogallala.
The quality of ground water is being
diminished by a variety of factors,
including chemical contamination. Salt-
water intrusion is another key ground-
water quality concern, particularly in
coastal areas where changes in fresh-
water flows and increases in sea level will
both occur. As ground-water pumping
increases to serve municipal demand
along the coast and less recharge occurs,
coastal ground-water aquifers are
increasingly being affected by sea-water
intrusion. Because the ground-water
resource has been compromised by
many factors, managers are increasingly
looking to surface-water supplies, which
are more sensitive to climate change and
variability.
Effects on Floods, Droughts, and
Heavy Precipitation Events
Projected changes in the amount,
timing, and distribution of rainfall and
snowfall are likely to lead to changes in
the amount and timing of high and low
water flows—although the relation-
ships of changes in precipitation rate to
changes in flood frequency and inten-
sity are uncertain, especially due to
uncertainties in the timing and persist-
ence of rainfall events and river levels
and capacities. Because changes in cli-
mate extremes are more likely than
changes in climate averages to affect
the magnitude of damages and raise the
need for adaptive measures at the
regional level, changes in the timing of
precipitation events, as well as increases
in the intensity of precipitation events,
are likely to become increasingly
important considerations.
Climate change is likely to affect the
frequency and amplitude of high stream
flows, with major implications for
infrastructure and emergency manage-
ment in areas vulnerable to flooding.
Although projections of the number of
hurricanes that may develop remain
uncertain, model simulations indicate
that, in a warmer climate, hurricanes
that do develop are likely to have
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 1O1
FIGURE 6-9 Projected Reductions in Western Snowpack Resulting from Potential
Changes in Climate
Climate model scenarios for the 21st century project significant decreases from the
1961-1990 baseline in the average April 1 snowpack for four mountainous areas in the
western United States. Scenarios from the Canadian model, which simulates warming
toward the upper end of IPCC projections, and from the Hadley model, which simulates
warming nearthe middle of IPCC projections, provide similar results. Such a steep reduc-
tion in the April 1 snowpack would significantly shift the time of peak runoff and reduce
average river flows in spring and summer.
Canadian Model
Central Rocky Mountains
Pacific Northwest
Southern Rocky Mountains
Sierra Nevada
Hadley Model
Source: Redrawn from McCabe and Wolock 1999, as presented in NAST2000.
higher wind speeds and produce more
rainfall. As a result, they are likely to
cause more damage, unless more exten-
sive (and therefore more costly) adap-
tive measures are taken, including
reducing the increasing exposure of
property to such extreme events. His-
torical records indicate that improved
warning has been a major factor in
reducing the annual number of deaths
due to storms, and that the primary
cause of the increasing property dam-
age in recent decades has been the
increase in at-risk structures, such as
widespread construction of vacation
homes on barrier islands.
Despite the overall increase in pre-
cipitation and past trends indicating an
increase in low to moderate stream
flow, model simulations suggest that
increased air temperatures and more
intense evaporation are likely to cause
many interior portions of the country
to experience more frequent and longer
dry conditions. To the extent that the
frequency and intensity of these condi-
tions lead to an increase in droughts,
some areas are likely to experience
wide-ranging impacts on agriculture,
water-based transportation, and ecosys-
tems, although the effects on vegeta-
tion (including crops and forests) are
likely to be mitigated under some con-
ditions by increased efficiency in water
use due to higher CO2 levels.
Water-driven Effects
on Ecosystems
Species live in the larger context of
ecosystems and have differing environ-
mental needs. In some ecosystems,
existing stresses could be reduced if
increases in soil moisture or the inci-
dence of freezing conditions are
reduced. Other ecosystems, including
some for which extreme conditions are
critical, are likely to be most affected
by changes in the frequency and
intensity of flood, drought, or fire
events. For example, model projections
indicate that changes in temperature,
moisture availability, and the water
demand from vegetation are likely to
lead to significant changes in some
ecosystems in the coming decades
-------
102 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
(NAST 2000). As specific examples, the
natural ecosystems of the Arctic, Great
Lakes, Great Basin, and Southeast, and
the prairie potholes of the Great Plains
appear highly vulnerable to the pro-
jected changes in climate (see Figures
6-6 and 6-8).
The effects of changes in water tem-
peratures are also important. For exam-
ple, rising water temperatures are likely
to force out some cold-water fish
species (such as salmon and trout) that
are already near the threshold of their
viable habitat, while opening up addi-
tional areas for warm-water species.
Increasing temperatures are also likely
to decrease dissolved oxygen in water,
degrade the health of ecosystems,
reduce ice cover, and alter the mixing
and stratification of water in lakes—all
of which are key to maintaining opti-
mal habitat and suitable nutrient levels.
In addition, warmer lake waters com-
bining with excess nutrients from agri-
cultural fertilizers (washed into lakes by
heavy rains) would be likely to create
algal blooms on the lake surfaces, fur-
ther depleting some lake ecosystems of
life-sustaining oxygen.
Potential Adaptation Options to
Ensure Adequate Water Resources
In contrast to the vulnerability of nat-
ural ecosystems, humans have exhibited
a significant ability to adapt to the
availability of different amounts of
water. There are many types of water
basins across the country, and many
approaches are already in use to ensure
careful management of water resources.
For example, more than 80,000 dams
and reservoirs and millions of miles of
canals, pipes, and tunnels have been
developed to store and transport water.
Some types of approaches that studies
have indicated might prove useful are
highlighted on this page.
Strategies for adapting to climate
change and other stresses include chang-
ing the operation of dams and reservoirs,
re-evaluating basic engineering assump-
tions used in facility construction, and
building new infrastructure (although
for a variety of reasons, large dams are
no longer generally viewed as a cost-
effective or environmentally acceptable
solution to water supply problems).
Other potentially available options
include conserving water,- changing
water pricing,- using reclaimed waste-
water,- using water transfers,- and devel-
oping markets for water, which can lead
to increased prices that discourage
wasteful practices.
Existing or new infrastructure can
also be used to dampen the impacts of
climate-induced influences on flow
regimes and aquatic ecosystems of many
of our nation's rivers. While significant
adaptation is possible, its cost could
be reduced if the probable effects of
climate change are factored in before
making major long-term investments in
repairing, maintaining, expanding, and
operating existing water supply and
management infrastructure.
Because of the uncertainties associ-
ated with the magnitude and direction of
changes in precipitation and runoff due
to climate change, more flexible institu-
tional arrangements may be needed to
ensure optimal availability of water as
supplies and demand change. Although
social, equity, and environmental con-
siderations must be addressed, market
solutions offer the potential for resolving
supply problems in some parts of the
country. However, because water rights
systems vary from state to state and even
locally, water managers will need to take
the lead in selecting the most appropri-
ate adaptive responses.
Because the United States shares
water resources with Canada and Mex-
ico, it participates in a number of insti-
tutions designed to address common
water issues. These institutions, which
include the U.S.-Canada Great Lakes
Commission and joint commissions and
agreements covering the Colorado and
Rio Grande rivers, could provide the
framework for designing adaptive
measures for responding to the effects
of climate change. For example, the
U.S.-Canada Great Lakes Commission
has already conducted studies to evalu-
ate options for dealing with the poten-
tial for increased evaporation, shorter
duration of lake ice, and other climate
changes that are projected to affect the
Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin.
Close coordination will be needed to
efficiently manage the levels of these
crucial water resources to ensure ade-
quate water supplies for communities
and irrigation, high water quality,
needed hydroelectric power, high
enough levels for recreation and
II
following are some potential adaptation
["options for water management in
response to climate change and other
stresses:
• Improve capacity for moving water
within and between water-use sectors
(including agriculture to urban).
• Use pricing and market mechanisms
proactively to decrease waste.
• Incorporate potential changes in
demand and supply in long-term plan-
ning and infrastructure design.
• Create incentives to move people and
structures away from flood plains.
• Identify ways to sustainably manage
supplies, including ground water, sur-
face water, and effluent.
• Restore and maintain watersheds to
reduce sediment loads and nutrients in
runoff, limit flooding, and lower water
temperature.
• Encourage the development of institu-
tions to confer property rights to
water. This would be intended to
encourage conservation, recycling,
and reuse of water by all users, as well
as to provide incentives for research
and development of such conservation
technologies.
• Reduce agricultural demand for water
by focusing research on development
of crops and farming practices for
minimizing water use, for example, via
precision agricultural techniques that
closely monitor soil moisture.
• Reuse municipal wastewater, improve
management of urban storm-water
runoff, and promote collection of rain
water for local use.
• Increase the use of forecasting tools
for water management. Some weather
patterns, such as those resulting from
El Nino, can now be predicted, allow-
ing for more efficient management of
water resources.
• Enhance monitoring efforts to improve
data collection for weather, climate,
and hydrologic modeling to aid under-
standing of water-related impacts and
management strategies.
Source: Adapted from NWAG 2000.
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 103
shipping, low enough levels to protect
communities and shorelines from
flooding and wave-induced erosion,
and more.
Potential Interactions
with Coastal Areas
and Marine Resources
The United States has over 95,000
miles of coastline and over 3.4 million
square miles of ocean within its territo-
rial waters. These areas provide a wide
range of goods and services to the U.S.
economy. Approximately 53 percent of
the U.S. population lives on the 17 per-
cent of land in counties that are adja-
cent to or relatively near the coast.
Over recent decades, populations in
these coastal counties have been grow-
ing more rapidly than elsewhere in the
country. As a result of this population
growth and increased wealth, demands
on coastal and marine resources for
both leisure activities and economic
benefits are rapidly intensifying, while
at the same time exposure to coastal
hazards is increasing.
Coastal and marine environments
are intrinsically linked to the prevailing
climate in many ways. Heat given off
by the oceans warms the land during
the winter, and ocean waters help to
keep coastal regions cooler during the
summer. Moisture evaporated from the
oceans is the ultimate source of precip-
itation, and the runoff of precipitation
carries nutrients, pollutants, and other
materials from the land to the ocean.
Sea level exerts a major influence on
the coastal zone, shaping barrier
islands and pushing salt water up estu-
aries and into aquifers. For example,
cycles of beach and cliff erosion along
the Pacific Coast have been linked to
the natural sequence of El Nino events
that alter storm tracks and temporarily
raise average sea levels by several
inches in this region (NCAG 2000).
During the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El
Nino events, erosion damage was wide-
spread along the Pacific coastline.
Climate change will affect interac-
tions among conditions on the land and
sea and in the atmosphere. Warming is
likely to alter coastal weather and could
affect the intensity, frequency, and
extent of severe storms. Melting of gla-
ciers and ice sheets and thermal expan-
sion of ocean waters will cause sea level
to rise, which is likely to intensify ero-
sion and endanger coastal structures.
Rising sea level and higher tempera-
tures are also likely to affect the ecol-
ogy of estuaries and coastal wetlands.
Higher temperatures coupled with
increasing CO2 concentrations are
likely to severely stress coral reefs, and
the changing temperature patterns are
likely to cause fisheries to relocate and
alter fish migration patterns. While
quantifying these consequences is diffi-
cult, indications of the types of out-
comes that are possible have emerged
from U.S. assessments (NCAG 2000).
Effects on Sea Level
Global sea level rose by 10-20 cm
(about 4-8 inches) during the 20th
century, which was significantly more
than the rate of rise that was typical
over the last few thousand years. Even
in the absence of a change in Atlantic
storminess, the deeper inundation that
has resulted from recent storms has
exacerbated flooding and has led to
damage to fixed coastal structures from
storms that were previously inconse-
quential.
Looking to the future, climate mod-
els project that global warming will
increase sea level by 9-88 cm (4-35
inches) during the 21st century, with
mid-range values more likely than the
very high or very low estimates (IPCC
200Id). Because of the long time con-
stants involved in ocean warming and
glacier and ice sheet melting, further
sea level rise is likely for several cen-
turies, even after achieving significant
limitations in emissions of CO, and
other greenhouse gases. However,
these global changes are only one fac-
tor in what determines sea level change
at any particular coastal location. For
example, along the Mid-Atlantic coast,
where land levels are subsiding, relative
sea level rise will be somewhat greater,-
conversely, in New England, where
land levels are rising, relative sea level
rise will be somewhat less.
Not surprisingly, an increased rate of
global sea level rise is likely to have the
most dramatic impacts in regions where
subsidence and erosion problems
already exist. Estuaries, wetlands, and
shorelines along the Atlantic and Gulf
coasts are especially vulnerable.
Impacts on fixed structures will inten-
sify, even in the absence of an increase
in storminess. However, because the
slope of these areas is so gentle, even a
small rise in sea level can produce a
large inland shift of the shoreline. The
rise will be particularly important if the
frequency or intensity of storm surges
or hurricanes increases.
Increases in the frequency or inten-
sity of El Nino events would also likely
exacerbate the impacts of long-term sea
level rise. Coastal erosion increases the
threats to coastal development, trans-
portation infrastructure, tourism, fresh-
water aquifers, fisheries (many of which
are already stressed by human activi-
ties), and coastal ecosystems. Coastal
cities and towns, especially those in
storm-prone regions, such as the South-
east, are particularly vulnerable. Inten-
sive residential and commercial
development in these regions is placing
more and more lives and property at
risk (Figure 6-10).
Effects on Estuaries
Climate change and sea level rise
could present significant threats to valu-
able, productive coastal ecosystems. For
example, estuaries filter and purify water
and provide critical nursery and habitat
functions for many commercially impor-
tant fish and shellfish populations.
Because the temperature increase is pro-
jected to be greater in the winter than in
the summer, a narrowing of the annual
water temperature range of many estuar-
ies is likely. This, in turn, is likely to
cause a shift in species' ranges and to
increase the vulnerability of some estuar-
ies to invasive species (NCAG 2000).
Changes in runoff are also likely to
adversely affect estuaries. Unless new
agricultural technologies allow reduced
use of fertilizers, higher rates of runoff
are likely to deliver greater amounts
of nutrients such as nitrogen and
-------
104 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
FIGORE o-io Projected Rates of Annual Erosion along U.S. Shorelines
The U.S. coastal areas that are most vulnerable to future increases in sea level are those
with low relief and those that are already experiencing rapid erosion rates, such as the
Southeast and Gulf Coast.
Severely Eroding
Moderately Eroding
Relatively Stable
Source: U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Geology Program, as presented in MAST2000.
phosphorus to estuaries, while simulta-
neously increasing the stratification
between fresh-water runoff and marine
waters. Such conditions would be likely
to increase the potential for algal
blooms that deplete the water of oxy-
gen. These conditions would also
increase stresses on sea grasses, fish,
shellfish, and other organisms living in
lakes, streams, and oceans (NCAG
2000, and regional assessment reports
listed at http://www.usgcrp.gov). In
addition, decreased runoff is likely to
reduce flushing, decrease the size of
estuarine nursery zones, and increase
the range of estuarine habitat suscepti-
ble to predators and pathogens of
shellfish.
Effects on Wetlands
Coastal wetlands (marshes and
mangroves) are highly productive
ecosystems, particularly because they
are strongly linked to the productivity
of fisheries. Dramatic losses of coastal
wetlands have occurred along the Gulf
Coast due to subsidence, alterations in
flow and sediment load caused by
dams and levees, dredge and fill activ-
ities, and sea level rise. Louisiana alone
has been losing land at rates of about
68—104 square kilometers (24—40
square miles) per year for the last 40
years, accounting for as much as 80
percent of the total U.S. coastal wet-
land loss.
In general, coastal wetlands will sur-
vive if soil buildup equals the rate of rel-
ative sea level rise or if they are able to
migrate inland (although this migration
necessarily displaces other ecosystems
or land uses). However, if soil accumu-
lation does not keep pace with sea level
rise, or if bluffs, coastal development,
or shoreline protective structures (such
as dikes, sea walls, and jetties) block
wetland migration, wetlands may be
excessively inundated and, thus, lost.
The projected increase in the current
rate of sea level rise is very likely to
exacerbate the nationwide rate of loss
of existing coastal wetlands, although
the extent of impacts will vary among
regions, and some impacts may be
moderated by the inland formation of
new wetlands.
Effects on Coral Reefs
The demise or continued deteriora-
tion of reefs could have profound impli-
cations for the United States. Coral
reefs play a major role in the environ-
ment and economies of Florida and
Hawaii as well as in most U.S. territo-
ries in the Caribbean and Pacific. They
support fisheries, recreation, and
tourism and protect coastal areas. In
addition, coral reefs are one of the
largest global storehouses of marine
biodiversity, sheltering one-quarter of
all marine life and containing extensive
untapped genetic resources.
The last few years have seen unprece-
dented declines in the health of coral
reefs. The 1998 El Nino was associated
with record sea-surface temperatures
and associated coral bleaching (which
occurs when coral expel the algae that
live within them and that are necessary
to their survival). In some regions, as
much as 70 percent of the coral may
have died in a single season. There has
also been an upsurge in the variety, inci-
dence, and virulence of coral diseases in
recent years, with major die-offs in
Florida and much of the Caribbean
region (NCAG 2000).
Other factors that are likely to be
contributing to the decline of coral
reefs include increased sediment depo-
sition, sewage and agricultural runoff,
excessive harvesting of fish, and dam-
age from ships and tourists. In addition
to the potential influences of further
global warming, increasing atmospheric
CO2 concentrations are likely to
decrease the calcification rates of the
reef-building corals, resulting in weaker
skeletons, reduced growth rates, and
increased vulnerability to wave-induced
damage. Model results suggest that these
effects would likely be most severe at the
current margins of coral reef distribu-
tion, meaning that it is unlikely coral
reefs will be able to spread northward to
reach cooler waters. While steps can be
taken to reduce the impacts of some
types of stress on coral reefs (e.g., by
creating Marine Protected Areas, as
called for in Executive Order 13158, and
constructing artificial reefs to provide
habitat for threatened species), damage
to coral reefs from climate change and
the increasing CO2 concentration may
be moderated to some extent only by
significantly reducing other stresses.
Effects on Marine Fisheries
Based on studies summarized in the
coastal sector assessment, recreational
and commercial fishing has contributed
approximately $40 billion a year to the
U.S. economy, with total marine
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 105
landings averaging about 4.5 million
metric tons over the last decade. Cli-
mate change is very likely to substan-
tially alter the distribution and
abundance of major fish stocks, many
of which are a shared international
resource.
Along the Pacific Coast, impacts to
fisheries related to the El Nino—South-
ern Oscillation illustrate how climate
directly affects marine fisheries on short
time scales. For example, elevated sea-
surface temperatures associated with
the 1997-98 El Nino had a tremendous
impact on the distribution and abun-
dance of market squid. Although Cali-
fornia's largest fishery by volume, squid
landings fell to less than 1,000 metric
tons in the 1997—98 season, down from
a record-breaking 110,000 metric tons
in the 1996—97 season. Many other
unusual events occurred during this
same El Nino as a result of elevated sea-
surface temperatures. Examples include
widespread deaths of California sea lion
pups, catches of warm-water marlin in
the usually frigid waters off Washing-
ton State, and poor salmon returns in
Bristol Bay, Alaska.
The changes in fish stocks resulting
from climate change are also likely to
have important implications for
marine populations and ecosystems.
Changes over the long term that will
affect all nations are likely to include
poleward shifts in distribution of
marine populations, and changes in
the timing, locations, and, perhaps,
viability of migration paths and nest-
ing and feeding areas for marine mam-
mals and other species.
With changing ocean temperatures
and conditions, shifts in the distribu-
tion of commercially important species
are likely, affecting U.S. and interna-
tional fisheries. For example, model
projections suggest that several species
of Pacific salmon are likely to have
reduced distribution and productivity,
while species that thrive in warmer
waters, such as Pacific sardine and
Atlantic menhaden, are likely to show
an increased distribution. Presuming
that the rate of climate change is grad-
ual, the many efforts being made to bet-
ter manage the world's fisheries might
promote adaptation to climate change,
along with helping to relieve the many
other pressures on these resources.
Potential Adaptation Options
for Coastal Regions
Because climate variability is cur-
rently a dominant factor in shaping
coastal and marine systems, projecting
the specific effects of climate change
over the next few decades and evaluating
the potential effectiveness of possible
response options is particularly challeng-
ing. Effects will surely vary greatly
among the diverse coastal regions of the
nation. Human-induced disturbances
also influence coastal and marine sys-
tems, often reducing the ability of sys-
tems to adapt, so that systems that might
ordinarily be capable of responding to
variability and change are less able to do
so. In this context, climate change is
likely to add to the cumulative impact of
both natural and human-caused stresses
on ecological systems and resources. As
a result, strategies for adapting to the
potential consequences of long-term cli-
mate change in the overall context of
coastal development and management
are only beginning to be considered
(NCAG2000).
However, as further plans are made
for development of land in the coastal
zone, it is especially urgent for govern-
ing bodies at all levels to begin to
consider the potential changes in
the coastal climate and sea level. For
example, the U.S. Geological Survey
is expanding its gathering and assembly
of relevant coastal information, and
the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency's Sea Level Rise project is
dedicated to motivating adaptation to
rising sea level. This project has
assessed the probability and has
identified and mapped vulnerable low-
elevation coastal zones. In addition,
cost-effective strategies and land-use
planning approaches involving land-
ward migration of wetlands, levee
building, incorporation of sea level rise
in beach conservation plans, engineered
landward retreats, and sea walls have all
been developed.
Several states have already included
sea level rise in their planning, and
some have already implemented adap-
tation activities. For example, in New
Jersey, where relative sea level is rising
approximately one inch (2.5 cm) every
six years, $15 million is now set aside
each year for shore protection, and the
state discourages construction that
would later require sea walls. In addi-
tion, Maine, Rhode Island, South
Carolina, and Massachusetts have
implemented various forms of "rolling
easement" policies to ensure that wet-
lands and beaches can migrate inland as
sea level rises, and that coastal
landowners and conservation agencies
can purchase the required easements.
Other states have modified regulations
on, for example, beach preservation,
land reclamation, and inward migration
of wetlands and beaches. Wider consid-
eration of potential consequences is
especially important, however, because
some regulatory programs continue to
permit structures that may block the
inland shift of wetlands and beaches,
and in some locations shoreline move-
ment is precluded due to the high
degree of coastal development.
To safeguard people and better man-
age resources along the coast, NOAA
provides weather forecasts and
remotely sensed environmental data to
federal, state, and local governments,
coastal resource managers and scien-
tists, and the public. As part of its man-
date and responsibilities to administer
the National Flood Insurance Program,
the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) prepares Flood Insur-
ance Rate Maps that identify and delin-
eate areas subject to severe (1 percent
annual chance) floods. FEMA also maps
coastal flood hazard areas as a separate
flood hazard category in recognition of
the additional risk associated with wave
action. In addition, FEMA is working
with many coastal cities to encourage
steps to reduce their vulnerability to
storms and floods, including purchasing
vulnerable properties.
University and state programs are
also underway across the country. This
is particularly important because most
-------
106 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
coastal planning in the United States is
the responsibility of state and local
governments, with the federal govern-
ment interacting with these efforts
through the development of coastal
zone management plans.
Potential Interactions
with Human Health
Although the overall susceptibility
of Americans to environmental health
concerns dropped dramatically during
the 20th century, certain health out-
comes are still recognized to be associ-
ated with the prevailing environmental
conditions. These adverse outcomes
include illnesses and deaths associated
with temperature extremes,- storms and
other heavy precipitation events,- air
pollution,- water contamination,- and
diseases carried by mosquitoes, ticks,
and rodents. As a result of the potential
consequences of these stresses acting
individually or in combination, it is
possible that projected climate change
will have measurable beneficial and
adverse impacts on health (see NHAG
2000,2001).
Adaptation offers the potential to
reduce the vulnerability of the U.S.
population to adverse health out-
comes—including possible outcomes of
projected climate change—primarily by
ensuring strong public health systems,
improving their responsiveness to
changing weather and climate condi-
tions, and expanding attention given to
vulnerable subpopulations. Although
the costs, benefits, and availability of
resources for such adaptation must be
found, and further research into key
knowledge gaps on the relationships
between climate/weather and health is
needed, to the extent that the U.S. pop-
ulation can keep from putting itself at
greater risk by where it lives and what it
does, the potential impacts of climate
change on human health can likely be
addressed as a component of efforts to
address current vulnerabilities.
Projections of the extent and direc-
tion of potential impacts of climate
variability and change on health are
extremely difficult to make with confi-
dence because of the many confound-
ing and poorly understood factors asso-
ciated with potential health outcomes.
These factors include the sensitivity of
human health to aspects of weather and
climate, differing vulnerability of various
demographic and geographic segments
of the population, the international
movement of disease vectors, and how
effectively prospective problems can be
dealt with. For example, uncertainties
remain about how climate and associ-
ated environmental conditions may
change. Even in the absence of improv-
ing medical care and treatment, while
some positive health outcomes—
notably, reduced cold-weather mortal-
ity—are possible, the balance between
increased risk of heat-related illnesses
and death and changes in winter ill-
nesses and death cannot yet be confi-
dently assessed. In addition to
uncertainties about health outcomes, it
is very difficult to anticipate what
future adaptive measures (e.g., vaccines,
improved use of weather forecasting to
further reduce exposure to severe con-
ditions) might be taken to reduce the
risks of adverse health outcomes.
Effects on Temperature-Related
Illnesses and Deaths
Episodes of extreme heat cause more
deaths in the United States than any
other category of deaths associated
with extreme weather. In one of the
most severe examples of such an event,
the number of deaths rose by 85 per-
cent during a five-day heat wave in
1995 in which maximum temperatures
in Chicago, Illinois, ranged from 34 to
40°C (93 to 104°F) and minimum tem-
peratures were nearly as high. At least
700 excess deaths (deaths in that popu-
lation beyond those expected for that
period) were recorded, most of which
were directly attributable to heat.
For particular years, studies in cer-
tain urban areas show a strong associa-
tion between increases in mortality and
increases in heat, measured by maxi-
mum or minimum daily temperature
and by heat index (a measure of tem-
perature and humidity). Over longer
periods, determination of trends is
often difficult due to the episodic
nature of such events and the presence
of complicating health conditions, as
well as because many areas are taking
steps to reduce exposure to extreme
heat. Recognizing these complications,
no nationwide trend in deaths directly
attributed to extreme heat is evident
over the past two decades, even though
some warming has occurred.
Based on available studies, heat stroke
and other health effects associated with
exposure to extreme and prolonged heat
appear to be related to environmental
temperatures above those to which the
population is accustomed. Thus, the
regions expected to be most sensitive to
projected increases in severity and fre-
quency of heat waves are likely to be
those in which extremely high tempera-
tures occur only irregularly. Within heat-
sensitive regions, experience indicates
that populations in urban areas are most
vulnerable to adverse heat-related health
outcomes. Daily average heat indices
and heat-related mortality rates are
higher in these urban core areas than in
surrounding areas, because urban areas
remain warmer throughout the night
compared to outlying suburban and rural
areas. The absence of nighttime relief
from heat for urban residents has been
identified as a factor in excessive heat-
related deaths. The elderly, young chil-
dren, the poor, and people who are
bedridden, who are on certain medica-
tions, or who have certain underlying
medical conditions are at particular risk.
Plausible climate scenarios project
significant increases in average summer
temperatures, leading to new record
highs. Model results also indicate that
the frequency and severity of heat
waves would be very likely to increase
along with the increase in average tem-
peratures. The size of U.S. cities and
the proportion of U.S. residents living
in them are also projected to increase
through the 21st century. Because cities
tend to retain daytime heat and so are
warmer than surrounding areas, climate
change is very likely to lead to an
increase in the population potentially at
risk from heat events. While the poten-
tial risk may increase, heat-related ill-
nesses and deaths are largely preventable
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 107
through behavioral adaptations, includ-
ing use of air conditioning, increased
fluid intake, and community warning
and support systems. The degree to
which these adaptations can be even
more broadly made available and
adopted than in the 20th century, espe-
cially for sensitive populations, will
determine if the long-term trend
toward fewer deaths from extreme heat
can be maintained.
Death rates not only vary with sum-
mertime temperature, but also show a
seasonal dependence, with more deaths
in winter than in summer. This relation-
ship suggests that the relatively large
increases in average winter temperature
could reduce deaths in winter months.
However, the relationship between
winter weather and mortality is not as
clear as for summertime extremes.
While there should be fewer deaths
from shoveling snow and slipping on
ice, many winter deaths are due to res-
piratory infections, such as influenza,
and it is not clear how influenza trans-
mission would be affected by higher
winter temperatures. As a result, the net
effect on winter mortality from milder
winters remains uncertain.
Influences on Health Effects
Related to Extreme Weather Events
Injury and death also result from
natural disasters, such as floods and
hurricanes. Such outcomes can result
both from direct bodily harm and from
secondary influences, such as those
mediated by changes in ecological sys-
tems (such as bacterial and fungal pro-
liferation) and in public health
infrastructures (such as reduced avail-
ability of safe drinking water).
Projections of climate change for
the 21st century suggest a continuation
of the 20th-century trend toward
increasing intensity of heavy precipita-
tion events, including precipitation
during hurricanes. Such events, in addi-
tion to the potential consequences
listed above, pose an increased risk of
floods and associated health impacts.
However, much can be done to prepare
for powerful storms and heavy precipi-
tation events, both through community
design and through warning systems.
As a result of such efforts, the loss of
life and the relative amounts of damage
have been decreasing. For the future,
therefore, the net health impacts of
extreme weather events hinge on con-
tinuing efforts to reduce societal vul-
nerabilities. For example, FEMAs Safe
Communities program is promoting
implementation of stronger building
codes and improved warning systems,
as well as enhancing the recovery
capacities of the natural environment
and the local population, which are also
being addressed through disaster assis-
tance programs.
Influences on Health Effects
Related to Air Pollution
Current exposures to air pollution
exceed health-based standards in many
parts of the country. Health assess-
ments indicate that ground-level ozone
can exacerbate respiratory diseases and
cause short-term reductions in lung
function. Such studies also indicate that
exposure to particulate matter can
aggravate existing respiratory and car-
diovascular diseases, alter the body's
defense systems against foreign materi-
als, damage lung tissue, lead to prema-
ture death, and possibly contribute to
cancer. Health effects of exposure to
carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and
nitrogen dioxide have also been related
to reduced work capacity, aggravation
of existing cardiovascular diseases,
effects on breathing, respiratory ill-
nesses, lung irritation, and alterations in
the lung's defense systems.
Projected changes in climate would
be likely to affect air quality in several
ways, some of which are likely to be
dealt with by ongoing changes in tech-
nology, and some of which can be dealt
with, if necessary, through changes in
regulations. For example, changes in
the weather that affect regional pollu-
tion emissions and concentrations can
be dealt with by controlling sources of
emissions. However, adaptation will be
needed in response to changes in natu-
ral sources of air pollution that result
from changes in weather. Analyses
show that hotter, sunnier days tend to
increase the formation of ground-level
ozone, other conditions being the
same. This creates a risk of higher con-
centrations of ground-level ozone in
the future, especially because higher
temperatures are frequently accompa-
nied by stagnating circulation patterns.
However, more specific projections of
exposure to air pollutants cannot be
made with confidence without more
accurate projections of changes in local
and regional weather and projections of
the amounts and locations of future
emissions, which will in turn be affected
by the implementation and success of
air pollution control policies designed
to ensure air quality. Also, more exten-
sive health-warning systems could help
to reduce exposures, decreasing any
potential adverse consequences.
In addition to affecting exposure to
air pollutants, there is some chance that
climate change will play a role in
exposure to airborne allergens. For
example, it is possible that climate
change will alter pollen production in
some plants and change the geographic
distribution of plant species. Conse-
quently, there is some chance that cli-
mate change will affect the timing or
duration of seasonal allergies. The
impact of pollen and of pollen changes
on the occurrence and severity of
asthma, the most common chronic dis-
ease among children, is currently very
uncertain.
Effects on Water- and
Food-borne Diseases
In the United States, the incidence
of and deaths due to waterborne dis-
eases declined dramatically during the
20th century. While much less frequent
or lethal nowadays, exposure to water-
borne disease can still result from drink-
ing contaminated water, eating seafood
from contaminated water, eating fresh
produce irrigated or processed with
contaminated water, and participating
in such activities as fishing or swimming
in contaminated water. Water-borne
pathogens of current concern include
viruses, bacteria (such as Vibrio vulmficus,
a naturally occurring estuarine bac-
terium responsible for a high
-------
108 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
percentage of the deaths associated
with shellfish consumption), and proto-
zoa (such as Cryptosporidium, associated
with gastrointestinal illnesses).
Because changes in precipitation,
temperature, humidity, salinity, and
wind have a measurable effect on water
quality, future changes in climate have
the potential to increase exposure to
water-borne pathogens. In 1993, for
example, Cryptosporidium contaminated
the Milwaukee, Wisconsin, drinking-
water supply. As a result, 400,000 peo-
ple became ill. Of the 54 individuals
who died, most had compromised
immune systems because of HIV infec-
tion or other illness. A contributing
factor in the contamination, in addition
to treatment system malfunctions, was
heavy rainfall and runoff that resulted
in a decline in the quality of raw
surface water arriving at the Milwaukee
drinking-water plants.
In another example, during the
strong El Nino winter of 1997-98,
heavy precipitation and runoff greatly
elevated the counts of fecal bacteria
and infectious viruses in Florida's
coastal waters. In addition, toxic red
tides proliferate as sea-water tempera-
tures increase. Reports of marine-
related illnesses have risen over the past
two and a half decades along the East
Coast, in correlation with El Nino
events. Therefore, climate changes pro-
jected to occur in the next several
decades—in particular, the likely
increase in heavy precipitation
events—raise the risk of contamination
events.
Effects on Insect-, Tick-, and
Rodent-borne Diseases
Malaria, yellow fever, dengue fever,
and other diseases transmitted between
humans by blood-feeding insects, ticks,
and mites were once common in the
United States. The incidence of many
of these diseases has been significantly
reduced, mainly because of changes in
land use, agricultural methods, residen-
tial patterns, human behavior, vector
control, and public health systems.
However, diseases that may be trans-
mitted to humans from wild animals
continue to circulate in nature in many
parts of the country. Humans may
become infected with the pathogens
that cause these diseases through trans-
mission by insects or ticks (such as
Lyme disease, which is tick-borne) or
by direct contact with the host animals
or their body fluids (such as han-
taviruses, which are carried by numer-
ous rodent species and transmitted to
humans through contact with rodent
urine, droppings, and saliva). The
organisms that directly transmit these
diseases are known as vectors.
The ecology and transmission
dynamics of vector-borne infections are
complex, and the factors that influence
transmission are unique for each
pathogen. Most vector-borne diseases
exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern,
which clearly suggests that they are
weather-sensitive. Rainfall, tempera-
ture, and other weather variables affect
both vectors and the pathogens they
transmit in many ways. For example,
epidemics of malaria are associated
with rainy periods in some parts of the
world, but with drought in others.
Higher temperatures may increase or
reduce vector survival rate, depending
on each specific vector, its behavior,
ecology, and many other factors. In
some cases, specific weather patterns
over several seasons appear to be asso-
ciated with increased transmission
rates. For example, in the Midwest, out-
breaks of St. Louis encephalitis (a viral
infection of birds that can also infect
and cause disease in humans) appear to
be associated with the sequence of
warm, wet winters, cold springs, and
hot, dry summers. Although the poten-
tial for such diseases seems likely to
increase, both the U.S. National
Assessment (NHAG 2000, 2001) and a
special report prepared by the National
Research Council (NRC 200 Ib) agree
that significant outbreaks of these dis-
eases as a result of climate change are
unlikely because of U.S. health and
community standards and systems.
However, even with actions to limit
breeding habitats of mosquitoes and
other disease vectors and to carefully
monitor for infectious diseases, the
continued occurrence of local, isolated
incidences of such diseases probably
cannot be fully eliminated.
Although the United States has been
able to reduce the incidence of such
climatically related diseases as dengue
and malaria, these diseases continue
to extract a heavy toll elsewhere
(Figure 6-11). Accordingly, the U.S.
government and other governmental
and nongovernmental organizations are
actively supporting efforts to reduce
the incidence and impacts of such dis-
eases. For instance, U.S. agencies and
philanthropies are in the forefront of
malaria research, including the search
for vaccines and genome sequencing of
the anopheles mosquitoes and the
malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum.
Efforts such as these should help to
reduce global vulnerability to malaria
and other vector-borne diseases, and
need to be considered in global adapta-
tion strategies.
The results from this work will serve
the world in the event that human-
induced climate change, through what-
ever mechanism, increases the potential
for malaria. This work will also be
FIGORE e-11 Reported Cases of Dengue
Fever: 1980-1999
In 1922, there were an estimated 500,000
cases of dengue fever in Texas. The mos-
quitoes that transmit this viral disease
remain abundant. The striking contrast in
incidence in Texas over the last two
decades, and in three Mexican states that
border Texas, illustrates the importance of
factors other than climate in the incidence
of vector-borne diseases.
3 Mexican
Border States:
62,514 Cases
Sources: National Institute of Health, Mexico, Texas
Department of Health, U.S. Public Health Service, and
unpublished data analyzed by the National Health
Assessment Group and presented in NAST2001.
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 109
beneficial for U.S. residents because our
nation cannot be isolated from diseases
occurring elsewhere in the world. Of
significant importance, the potential for
disease vectors to spread into the United
States via travel and trade is likely to
increase just as the natural, cold-winter
conditions that have helped to protect
U.S. residents are moderating.
Potential Adaptation Options
to Ensure Public Health
The future vulnerability of the U.S.
population to the health impacts of cli-
mate change will largely depend on
maintaining—if not enhancing—the
nation's capacity to adapt to potential
adverse changes through legislative,
administrative, institutional, technolog-
ical, educational, and research-related
measures. Examples include basic
research into climate-sensitive diseases,
building codes and zoning to prevent
storm or flood damage, severe weather
warning systems to allow evacuation,
improved disease surveillance and
prevention programs, improved sanita-
tion systems, education of health pro-
fessionals and the public, and research
addressing key knowledge gaps in
climate—health relationships.
Many of these adaptive responses
are desirable from a public health per-
spective, irrespective of climate change.
For example, reducing air pollution
obviously has both short- and long-
term health benefits. Improving warn-
ing systems for extreme weather events
and eliminating existing combined
sewer and storm-water drainage sys-
tems are other measures that can ame-
liorate some of the potential adverse
impacts of current climate extremes and
of the possible impacts of climate
change. Improved disease surveillance,
prevention systems, and other public
health infrastructure at the state and
local levels are already needed. Because
of this, we expect awareness of the
potential health consequences of cli-
mate change to allow adaptation to
proceed in the normal course of social
and economic development.
Potential Impacts in
Various U.S. Regions
While some appreciation can be
gained about the potential national
consequences of climate change by
looking at sectors such as the six con-
sidered above, the United States is a
very large and diverse nation. There are
both important commonalities and
important differences in the climate-
related issues and in the potential eco-
nomic and environmental consequences
faced by different regions across the
country. Therefore, there are many dif-
ferent manifestations of a changing cli-
mate in terms of vulnerability and
impacts, and the potential for adapta-
tion. For example, while all coastal
regions are at risk, the magnitude of the
vulnerabilities and the types of adapta-
tion necessary will depend on particular
coastal conditions and development.
Water is a key issue in virtually all
regions, but the specific changes and
impacts in the West, in the Great Lakes,
and in the Southeast will differ.
With this variability in mind, 20
regional workshops that brought
together researchers, stakeholders, and
community, state, and national leaders
were conducted to help identify key
issues facing each region and to begin
identifying potential adaptation strate-
gies. These workshops were followed
by the initiation of 16 regionally based
assessment studies, some of which are
already completed and others of which
are nearing completion. Each of the
regional studies has examined the
potential consequences that would
result from the climate model scenarios
used in the national level analysis
(the first finding in the Key National
Findings on page 89), and from model
simulations of how such climate
changes would affect the types and dis-
tributions of ecosystems. The following
page provides highlights of what has
been learned about the regional mosaic
of consequences from these studies. A
much more comprehensive presenta-
tion of the results is included in the
National Assessment regional reports
(see http://www.usgcrp.gov).
In summarizing potential conse-
quences for the United States, it is
important to recognize that the U.S.
government represents not only the 50
states, but also has trust responsibility
for a number of Caribbean and Pacific
islands and for the homelands of Native
Americans. In particular, the U.S. gov-
ernment has responsibilities of various
types for Puerto Rico, the American Vir-
gin Islands, American Samoa, the Com-
monwealth of the Northern Mariana
Islands, Guam, and more than 565 tribal
and Alaska Native governments that are
recognized as "domestic dependent
nations."
For the island areas, the potential
consequences are likely to be quite simi-
lar to those experienced by nearby U.S.
states. With regard to Native Americans,
treaties, executive orders, tribal legisla-
tion, acts of Congress, and decisions of
the federal courts determine the rela-
tionships between the tribes and the fed-
eral government. These agreements
cover a range of issues that will be
important in facing the potential conse-
quences of climate change, including use
and maintenance of land and water
resources. Although the diversity of land
areas and tribal perspectives and situa-
tions makes generalizations difficult, a
number of key issues have been identi-
fied for closer study concerning how cli-
mate variability and change will affect
Native populations and their communi-
ties. These issues include tourism and
community development,- human health
and extreme events,- rights to and avail-
ability of water and other natural
resources,- subsistence economies and
cultural resources,- and cultural sites,
wildlife, and natural resources. Closer
examination of the potential conse-
quences for tribes in the Southwest is the
topic of one of the regional assessments
now underway.
FEDERAL RESEARCH
ACTIVITIES
The types and nature of impacts of
climate change that are projected to
affect the United States make clear that
climate change is likely to become an
-------
110 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
The following key vulnerability and consequence issues were identified across the set of
regions considered in the U.S. National Assessment. Additional details may be found in
the regional reports indexed at http://www.usgcrp.gov.
Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest—Rising temperatures are likely to increase the heat
index dramatically in summer. Warmer winters are likely to reduce cold-related stresses.
Both types of changes are likely to affect health and comfort.
Appalachians—Warmer and moister air is likely to lead to more intense rainfall events in
mountainous areas, increasing the potential for flash floods.
Great Lakes—Lake levels are likely to decline due to increased warm-season evaporation,
leading to reduced water supply and degraded water quality. Lower lake levels are also
likely to increase shipping costs, although a longer shipping season is likely. Shoreline
damage due to high water levels is likely to decrease, but reduced wintertime ice cover is
likely to lead to higher waves and greater shoreline erosion.
Southeast—Under warmer, wetter scenarios, the range of southern tree species is likely
to expand. Under hotter, drier scenarios, it is likely that grasslands and savannas will even-
tually displace southeastern forests in many areas, with the transformation likely acceler-
ated by increased occurrence of large fires.
Southeast Atlantic Coast, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands—Rising sea level and high-
er storm surges are likely to cause loss of many coastal ecosystems that now provide an
important buffer for coastal development against the impacts of storms. Currently and
newly exposed communities are more likely to suffer damage from the increasing intensi-
ty of storms.
Midwest/Great Plains—A rising C02 concentration is likely to offset the effects of rising
temperatures on forests and agriculture for several decades, increasing productivity and
thereby reducing commodity prices for the public. To the extent that overall production is
not increased, higher crop and forest productivity is likely to lead to less land being farmed
and logged, which may promote recovery of some natural environments.
Great Plains—Prairie potholes, which provide important habitat for ducks and other
migratory waterfowl, are likely to become much drier in a warmer climate.
Southwest—With an increase in precipitation, the desert ecosystems native to this region
are likely to be replaced in many areas by grasslands and shrublands, increasing both fire
and agricultural potential.
Northern and Mountain Regions—It is very likely that warm-weather recreational oppor-
tunities like hiking will expand, while cold-weather activities like skiing will contract.
Mountain West—Higher winter temperatures are very likely to reduce late winter snow-
pack. This is likely to cause peak runoff to be lower, which is likely to reduce the potential
for spring floods associated with snowmelt. As the peakflow shifts to earlier in the spring,
summer runoff is likely to be reduced, which is likely to require modifications in water man-
agement to provide for flood control, power production, fish runs, cities, and irrigation.
Northwest—Increasing river and stream temperatures are very likely to further stress
migrating fish, complicating current restoration efforts.
Alaska—Sharp winter and springtime temperature increases are very likely to cause con-
tinued melting of sea ice and thawing of permafrost, further disrupting ecosystems, infra-
structure, and communities. A longer warm season could also increase opportunities for
shipping, commerce, and tourism.
Hawaii and Pacific Trust Territories—More intense El Nino and La Nina events are possi-
ble and would be likely to create extreme fluctuations in water resources for island citi-
zens and the tourists who sustain local economies.
increasingly important factor in the
future management of our land and
water resources. To better prepare for
coming changes, it is important to
enhance the basis of understanding
through research and to start to consider
the potential risks that may be created
by these impacts in the making of short -
and long-term decisions in such areas as
planning for infrastructure, land use, and
other natural resource management. To
promote these steps, the U.S. govern-
ment sponsors a wide range of related
activities reaching across federal agen-
cies and on to the states, communities,
and the general public.
Interagency Research
Subcommittees
At the federal level, climate change
and, even more generally, global envi-
ronmental change and sustainability are
topics that have ties to many agencies
across the U.S. government. To ensure
coordination, the U.S. Congress passed
the Global Change Research Act of
1990 (Public Law 101-606). This law
provides for the interagency coordina-
tion of global change activities, includ-
ing research on how the climate is likely
to change and on the potential conse-
quences for the environment and soci-
ety. Responsibility is assigned to the
Executive Office of the President and is
implemented under the guidance of the
Office of Science and Technology Pol-
icy (OSTP). To implement this coordi-
nation, OSTP has established several
interagency subcommittees. The U.S.
Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) provides a framework for
coordination of research to reduce
uncertainties about climate change and
potential impacts on climate, ecosys-
tems, natural resources, and society (see
Chapter 8). A number of the activities of
the other subcommittees are also related
to the issues of vulnerability and adapta-
tion to global climate change:
» Natural Disaster Reduction—This sub-
committee promotes interagency
efforts to assemble and analyze data
and information about the occurrence
and vulnerability of the United States
to a wide range of weather- and
-------
Impacts and Adaptation i 111
climate-related events. Through its
participating agencies, the subcom-
mittee is also promoting efforts by
communities, universities, and others
to increase their preparation for, and
resilience to, natural disasters. In that
climate change may alter the inten-
sity, frequency, duration and location
of such disasters, enhancing resilience
and flexibility will assist in coping
with climate change.
» Air Quality—This subcommittee pro-
motes interagency efforts to docu-
ment and investigate the factors
affecting air quality on scales from
regional and subcontinental to inter-
continental and global, focusing par-
ticularly on tropospheric ozone and
particulate matter, both of which
contribute to climate change as well
as being affected by it.
» Ecological Systems—This subcommittee
promotes interagency efforts to
assemble information about ecologi-
cal systems and services and their
coupling to society and environmen-
tal change. It is sponsoring assess-
ments that document the current
state of the nation's ecosystems, and
that provide scenarios of future con-
ditions under various management
and policy options, providing a base-
line for the National Assessment stud-
ies concerning how ecosystems are
likely to change over the long term.
Individual Agency
Research Activities
In addition to their interagency
activities, many of the USGCRP agen-
cies have various responsibilities relat-
ing to the potential consequences of
climate change and of consideration of
responses and means for coping with
and adapting to climate change.
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Research sponsored by the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA)
focuses on understanding terrestrial sys-
tems and the effects of global change
(including water balance, atmospheric
deposition, vegetative quality, and UV-B
radiation) on food, fiber, and forestry
production in agricultural, forest, and
range ecosystems. USDA research also
addresses how resilient managed agricul-
tural, rangeland, and forest ecosystems
are to climate change and what adapta-
tion strategies will be needed to adjust to
a changing climate. Programs include
long-term studies addressing the struc-
ture, function, and management of forest
and grassland ecosystems,- research in
applied sciences, including soils, climate,
food and fiber crops, pest management,
forests and wildlife, and social sciences,-
implementation of ecosystem manage-
ment on the national forests and grass-
lands,- and human interaction with
natural resources.
For example, U.S. Forest Service
research has established a national plan
of forest sustainability to continue to
provide water, recreation, timber, and
clean air in a changing environment.
Two goals of this program are to improve
strategies for sustaining forest health
under multiple environmental stresses
and to develop projections of future for-
est water quality and yield in light of
potential changes in climate.
Similarly, research at the U.S. Agri-
cultural Research Service (ARS) looks to
determine the impacts of increased
atmospheric CO2 levels, rising tempera-
tures, and water availability on crops and
their interactions with other biological
components of agricultural ecosystems.
ARS also conducts research on charac-
terizing and measuring changes in
weather and the water cycles at local and
regional scales, and determining how to
manage agricultural production systems
facing such changes.
National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
The National Oceanic and Atmos-
pheric Administration (NOAA) supports
in situ and remote sensing and monitor-
ing, research, and assessment to improve
the accuracy of forecasts of weather and
intense storms, and projections of cli-
mate change,- to improve the scientific
basis for federal, state, and local manage-
ment of the coastal and marine environ-
ment and its natural resources,- and to
ensure a safe and productive marine
transportation system. In addition to
direct responsibilities for managing
National Marine Sanctuaries and for
protecting threatened, endangered, and
trust resources, NOAA works with states
to implement their coastal zone manage-
ment plans and with regional councils to
ensure sustained productivity of marine
fisheries. Climate change and variability
influence all areas of NOAAs responsi-
bilities, both through direct effects and
through intensification of other stresses,
such as pollution, invasive species, and
land and resource use.
U.S. Department of Health
and Human Services
Through the National Institutes of
Health, the Department of Health and
Human Services sponsors research on a
wide variety of health-related issues
ranging from research on treatments for
existing and emerging diseases to studies
of risks from exposures to environmental
stresses. For example, the National Insti-
tute of Environmental Health Sciences
(NIEHS) conducts research on the
effects of exposure to environmental
agents on human health. The core pro-
grams of the NIEHS provide data and
understanding for risk assessments due
to changes in human vulnerability and
exposures. Climate change raises issues
of susceptibility to disease and needs for
ensuring public health services. Changes
in crop production techniques can
increase human exposures to toxic
agents and to disease vectors.
U.S. Department of the Interior
The U.S. Department of the Interior
(DOI) is the largest manager of land
and the associated biological and other
natural resources within the United
States. Its land management agencies,
which include the Bureau of Land Man-
agement, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service, and the National Park Service,
cumulatively manage over 180 million
hectares (445 million acres) or 20
percent of the nation's land area for a
variety of purposes, including preserva-
tion, tourism and recreation, timber
harvesting, migratory birds, fish,
wildlife, and a multiplicity of other
functions and uses.
-------
112i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
DOI's Bureau of Reclamation is the
largest supplier and manager of water in
the 17 western states, delivering water
to over 30 million people for agricul-
tural, municipal, industrial, and domes-
tic uses. The Bureau also generates over
a billion dollars worth of hydroelectric
power and is responsible for multi-
purpose projects encompassing flood
control, recreation, irrigation, fish, and
wildlife. Management of land, water,
and other natural resources is of neces-
sity an exercise in adaptive manage-
ment (IPCC 1991).
Research related to climate change
conducted by DOI's U.S. Geological Sur-
vey includes efforts to identify which
parts of the natural and human-controlled
landscapes, ecosystems, and coastlines
are at the highest risk under potential
changes in climate and climate variability,
water availability, and different land and
resource management practices.
U.S. Department of Transportation
The U.S. Department of Transporta-
tion has recognized that many of the
nation's transportation facilities and
operations, which are now generally
exposed to weather extremes, are also
likely to be affected as the climate
changes. Among a long list of potential
impacts, sea level rise is likely to affect
many port facilities and coastal airports,-
higher peak stream flows are likely to
affect bridges and roadways, whereas
lower summertime levels of rivers and
the Great Lakes are likely to inhibit
barge and ship traffic,- and higher peak
temperatures and more intense storms
are likely to adversely affect pavements
and freight movement. An assessment
of the potential significance of changes
for the U.S. transportation system and
of guidelines for improving resilience is
being organized.
U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency
The U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) works closely with other
federal agencies, state and local govern-
ments, and Native American tribes to
develop and enforce regulations under
existing environmental laws, such as
the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water
Act, and the Safe Drinking Water Act.
In line with EPAs mission to protect
human health and safeguard the natural
environment, EPAs Global Change
Research Program is assessing the con-
sequences of global change for human
health, aquatic ecosystem health, air
quality, and water quality. Recognizing
the need for "place-based" information,
these assessments will focus on impacts
at appropriate geographic scales (e.g.,
regional, watershed). In addition, EPA
is supporting three integrated regional
assessments in the Mid-Atlantic, Great
Lakes, and Gulf Coast regions. Finally,
in support of these assessments, EPA
laboratories and centers conduct
research through intramural and extra-
mural programs.
OTHER RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
In addition to federal activities, a
number of local, state, and regional activ-
ities are underway. Many of these activi-
ties have developed from the various
regional assessments sponsored by the
USGCRP or with the encouragement of
various federal agencies. In addition, the
USGCRP and federal agencies have been
expanding their education and outreach
activities to the public and private sec-
tors, as described in Chapter 9.
Recognizing our shared environment
and the resources it provides, it is impor-
tant that the nations of the world work
together in planning and coordinating
their steps to adapt to the changing cli-
mate projected for coming decades. As
part of this effort, the United States has
been co-chair of Working Group II of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, which is focused on impacts,
adaptation, and vulnerability. For the
IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, the
United States will co-chair IPCC Work-
ing Group I on Climate Science.
The United States is also a leader in
organizing the Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment (ACIA), which is being car-
ried out under the auspices of the eight-
nation Arctic Council to "evaluate and
synthesize knowledge on climate vari-
ability, climate change, and increased
ultraviolet radiation and their conse-
quences The ACIA will examine pos-
sible future impacts on the environment
and its living resources, on human health,
and on buildings, roads and other infra-
structure" (see http://www.acia.uaf.edu/).
These and other assessments need to
continue to be pursued in order to ensure
the most accurate information possible
for preparing for the changing climate.
-------
Financial
Resources and
Transfer of
Technology
The United States is committed to
working with developing countries
and countries with economies in
transition to address the challenge of
global climate change. The U.S. gov-
ernment has participated actively in the
Technology Transfer Consultative
Process under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), and has imple-
mented international programs and
activities to facilitate the transfer of
environmentally sound technologies
and practices that reduce growth in
greenhouse gas emissions and address
vulnerability to climate impacts.
Under Article 4.5 of the UNFCCC,
Annex I Parties, such as the United
States, committed to "take all practica-
ble steps to promote, facilitate and
finance, as appropriate, the transfer of,
or access to, environmentally sound
technologies and know-how to other
Parties." The Parties defined technology
transfer at the Second Meeting of the
-------
114i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Conference of the Parties to the FCCC
(COP-2) in Geneva as follows:
The term "transfer of technology"
encompasses practices and processes such
as "soft" technologies, for example, capac-
ity building, information networks, train-
ing and research, as well as "hard"
technologies, for example, equipment to
control, reduce, or prevent anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases in energy,
transport, forestry, agriculture, and
industry sectors, to enhance removal by
sinks, and to facilitate adaptation.
This chapter summarizes efforts
undertaken by the United States in sup-
port of its strong commitment to tech-
nology cooperation and transfer. It also
reports financial flows from the United
States to different international bodies,
foreign governments, and institutions
that support climate-friendly activities.
Between 1997 and 2000, the U.S.
government appropriated $285.8 million
to the Global Environment Facility
(GEF). A significant portion of overall
GEF financing has been dedicated to cli-
mate-related activities. It provided
nearly $4.5 billion to multilateral institu-
tions and programs, such as the United
Nations and affiliated multilateral banks,
to address climate change and related
international development priorities.
In addition, during the years
1997-2000 U.S. direct, bilateral, and
regional assistance in support of climate
change mitigation, adaptation, and
crosscutting activities totaled $4.1 bil-
lion. Commercial sales for technologies
that supported emissions mitigation and
reduced vulnerability amounted to $3.6
billion. Over this same period, the
United States leveraged $954.3 million
in indirect financing through U.S.
government-based financial instruments.
Some important highlights of U.S.
assistance described in this chapter
include:
* The U.S. Initiative on Joint Imple-
mentation, accepting 52 pioneering
projects in 26 countries, with sub-
stantial cooperation and support
from U.S. and host-country govern-
ments, nongovernmental organiza-
tions (NGOs), and the private
sector.
» The U.S. Country Studies Program,
which has helped 56 countries meet
their UNFCCC obligations to
report climate trends.
» The U.S. Agency for International
Development's Climate Change Ini-
tiative, a program to leverage $1 bil-
lion in development assistance to
address climate change through
activities supporting renewable- and
clean-energy activities, energy effi-
ciency, forest and biodiversity con-
servation, and reduced vulnerability
to climate impacts.
« A variety of public—private partner-
ship programs that provide access to
funding and expertise from the pri-
vate sector, government, and NGOs
to facilitate cooperation and foster
innovation in climate-friendly sus-
tainable development.
« Targeted programs to assist develop-
ing countries that are particularly
vulnerable to the adverse effects of
climate change, through weather
forecasting and warning systems, cli-
mate and vulnerability modeling,
and disaster preparedness and
response.
This chapter also provides success
stories to illustrate programs that
demonstrate significant achievement
and innovation in climate change miti-
gation and adaptation activities under
U.S. leadership.
TYPES AND SOURCES OF
U.S. ASSISTANCE
The United States recognizes that
effectively addressing global climate
change requires assistance to develop-
ing countries and countries with
economies in transition to limit their
net greenhouse gas emissions and
reduce their vulnerability to climate
impacts. As such, U.S. government
agencies, private foundations, NGOs,
research institutions, and businesses
channel significant financial and tech-
nical resources to these countries to
promote technology transfer that helps
address the challenges posed by global
climate change. In addition to the
transfer of "hard" technologies, the
United States supports extensive "soft"
technology transfer, such as the sharing
of technical experience and know-how
for targeted capacity building and
strengthening of in-country institu-
tions.
U.S. financial flows to developing
and transition economies that support
the diffusion of climate-friendly tech-
nologies include official development
assistance (ODA) and official aid (OA),
government-based project financing,
foundation grants, NGO resources,
private-sector commercial sales, com-
mercial lending, foreign direct invest-
ment, foreign private equity
investment, and venture capital. Finan-
cial resources are also provided
indirectly in the forms of U.S. govern-
ment-supported credit enhancements
(loan and risk guarantees) and invest-
ment insurance. U.S. ODA and OA
provide grants for a variety of technol-
ogy transfer programs, while U.S. gov-
ernment-supported project financing
and credit enhancements, commercial
sales, commercial lending, foreign pri-
vate equity investment, and foreign
direct investment typically involve
investments in physical capital, such as
plants and equipment.1 Note that this
chapter provides only a partial mone-
tary accounting of the flow types men-
tioned above, and does not account for
commercial lending, foreign private
equity investment, or venture capital,
except for some brief illustrative exam-
ples. Further detail on how these flows
are accounted is provided in the section
of this chapter entitled "U.S. Financial
Flow Information: 1997-2000."
ODA and OA are important to help
create the economic, legal, and regula-
tory environment that is necessary to
attract potential foreign investors, and
enable larger flows of private financial
resources to be leveraged in recipient
countries. Private-sector participation is
critical to the successful transfer of
much-needed technical know-how and
technologies in most regions of the
world because it finances, produces,
and supplies most climate-friendly
1 The financial flow types reported in this chapter
reflect those described in chapter 2 of 1PCC 2000.
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 115
technologies, and thus can provide
much of the human and financial capi-
tal for their effective deployment. U.S.
government agencies, foundations,
NGOs, and businesses each play a dif-
ferent role in promoting climate tech-
nology transfer to developing and
transition economies.
U.S. Government Assistance
The U.S. government has facilitated
technology transfer initiatives in devel-
oping and transition economies by
forming partnerships and creating
incentives for investment in climate-
friendly technologies. U.S. government
climate change projects support core
U.S. development assistance priorities
and the essential elements needed to
achieve sustainable development. These
priorities include supporting economic
growth and social development that
protects the resources of the host coun-
try,- supporting the design and imple-
mentation of policy and institutional
frameworks for sustainable develop-
ment,- and strengthening in-country
institutions that involve and empower
citizenry.
Official Development
Assistance and Official Aid
The U.S. government provides ODA
and OA to foreign governments and pro-
vides financial support to U.S. and host-
country NGOs that have expertise in
climate change mitigation and adapta-
tion measures. Through this kind of assis-
tance, the U.S. government has
facilitated technology transfer in devel-
oping and transition economies by
advancing the market for climate-
friendly technologies and by forming
partnerships and creating incentives for
investment in climate-friendly technolo-
gies. U.S. ODA and OA strive to build
local capacity as well as the policy frame-
works and regulatory reforms needed to
ensure that developing and transition
economies can grow economically while
limiting their net greenhouse gas emis-
sions. U.S. ODA and OA are especially
important in sectors where private-sector
flows are comparatively low.
U.S. Agency for International Develop-
ment. To date, U.S. bilateral assistance
has primarily been implemented
through the U.S. Agency for Inter-
national Development (USAID), the
foreign assistance arm of the U.S. gov-
ernment. Since 1997, USAID has
implemented many new programs in
developing and transition economies to
address climate change. Specifically,
USAID launched a $1 billion Climate
Change Initiative to expand the
Agency's already extensive efforts to
help developing and transition
economies. The goals of this initiative
have been to help USAID-assisted
countries reduce their net greenhouse
gas emissions and their vulnerability to
the impacts of climate change, and
increase their participation in the
UNFCCC. Between 1998 (when the
initiative began) and 2000, USAID had
committed $478.6 million to support
climate change objectives throughout
its programs and $6.3 million in lever-
aged credit. (Additional information
about USAID's Climate Change
Initiative is provided in the following
sections.) USAID also works closely
with other U.S. government agencies
to leverage additional resources and
expertise in addressing a variety of cli-
mate-related issues.
U.S. Department of Energy. In addition
to providing funding support for intera-
gency activities such as the U.S.
Initiative on Joint Implementation
(USIJI), the U.S. Country Studies
Program (CSP), and the Technology
Cooperation Agreement Pilot Project
(TCAPP), the U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) works directly with for-
eign governments and institutions to
promote dissemination of energy-effi-
ciency, renewable-energy, and clean-
energy technologies and practices.
DOE's International Clean Cities pro-
gram, for example, works with foreign
governments, industry, and NGOs to
help them implement viable activities
that address climate change, transporta-
tion needs, local air quality, and related
health risks.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
The U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) supports bilateral climate
change programs, as well as such inter-
national programs as USIJI, CSP, and
TCAPP. EPA is instrumental in design-
ing and implementing innovative
programs on a variety of global envi-
ronmental challenges, including efforts
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
local air pollution and efforts to protect
marine resources.
U.S. Department of Agriculture. The
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
supports international efforts to promote
forest conservation and sustainable
forestry, agroforestry, and improved
agricultural practices. Such activities
have provided meaningful benefits in
addressing both climate change mitiga-
tion, through improved carbon seques-
tration, and adaptation to climate
impacts, often related to food supply and
conservation of agricultural resources.
USDA is also instrumental in establish-
ing food security warning systems.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. The National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) has played an important role as
a world leader in the study and provision
of meteorological and hydrological fore-
casting and modeling,- satellite imaging
and analysis,- climate change assessment,
analysis, and modeling,- and hazardous
weather prediction. Critical information
gained from these activities is made
available to developing and transition
country partners to address areas of vul-
nerability to climate-related impacts.
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration. Like NOAA, the Na-
tional Aeronautics and Space Adminis-
tration (NASA) provides important
technical information,- satellite imaging
and other surveillance,- analysis and
research related to climate changes,
predictions, and weather trends,- as
well as analysis of shifts in the condi-
tions of forests, natural areas, and agri-
cultural zones.
-------
116 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Trade and Development Financing
U.S. government agencies also pro-
vide trade and development financing to
developing and transition economies.
These agencies facilitate the transfer of
climate-friendly technologies by provid-
ing OA, export credits, project financ-
ing, risk and loan guarantees, and
investment insurance to U.S. companies
as well as credit enhancements for host-
country financial institutions. Trade and
development financing leverages foreign
direct investment, foreign private equity
investment, or host-country and non-
U.S. private capital by decreasing the
risk involved in long-term, capital-inten-
sive projects or projects in nontraditional
sectors. Several agencies engage in this
type of financing.
Overseas Private Investment Corpora-
tion. The Overseas Private Investment
Corporation (OPIC) provides project
financing, political risk insurance, and
investment guarantees for U.S. company
projects covering a range of investments,
including clean-energy projects in devel-
oping countries. OPIC also supports a
variety of funds that make direct equity
and equity-related investments in new,
expanding, and privatizing companies in
emerging market economies.
Export-Import Bank. The Export-
Import Bank (Ex—Im) provides loan
guarantees to U.S. exporters, guaran-
tees the repayment of loans, and makes
loans to foreign purchasers of U.S.
goods and services. It also provides
credit insurance that protects U.S.
exporters against the risks of nonpay-
ment by foreign buyers for political or
commercial reasons. Ex—Im has provid-
ed project loans and risk guarantees
related to climate change mitigation for
clean-energy and renewable-energy
projects in developing and transition
economies.
USAID Development Credit Authority.
USAID's Development Credit Auth-
ority (DCA) provides partial loans and
risk guarantees to host-country and
international financial intermediaries to
encourage project finance in nontradi-
tional sectors, such as energy efficiency.
In addition to this immediate financial
leverage benefit, DCA facilitates long-
term relationships with the private sec-
tor that outlive USAID's project
involvement, allowing USAID to con-
tribute to the direction of investment of
the ever-increasing global private capi-
tal flows.
U.S. Trade and Development Agency.
The U.S. Trade and Development
Agency (TDA) helps U.S. companies
pursue overseas business opportunities
through OA. By supporting feasibility
studies, orientation visits, specialized
training grants, business workshops,
and technical assistance, TDA enables
American businesses to compete for
infrastructure and industrial projects in
developing countries. TDA has pro-
moted the transfer of climate-friendly
technology in the energy, environment,
and water resources sectors.
U.S. Department of Commerce. The
U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)
recently established an International
Clean Energy Initiative that links U.S.
companies with foreign markets to
facilitate dissemination of clean-energy
technologies, products, and services.
The initiative seeks to realize a vision
for enhanced exports of clean-energy
technology.
NGO Assistance
U.S. foundations and NGOs have
played a pivotal role in helping coun-
tries undertake sustainable develop-
ment projects that have increased their
ability to mitigate and adapt to the
effects of global climate change. These
organizations help improve host-
country capacity by implementing
small-scale, targeted initiatives related
to the mitigation of and adaptation to
climate change impacts. Following are
some examples of these organizations.
W. Alton Jones Foundation
The W. Alton Jones Foundation
supports the development of climate-
friendly energy in developing coun-
tries. The Foundation also seeks to
build the capacity of entrepreneurs in
developing countries to bring renew-
able-energy technologies to market.
Rockefeller Brothers Fund
The Rockefeller Brothers Fund seeks
to help developing countries define and
pursue locally appropriate development
strategies. In East Asia, the Fund pro-
vides grants for coastal zone manage-
ment and integrated watershed
planning efforts that will help these
countries prepare to adapt to the effects
of global climate change.
7776 Nature Conservancy
The Nature Conservancy (TNC), in
partnership with the U.S. private sec-
tor,2 is working to lower net CO, emis-
sions in Belize (the Rio Bravo Carbon
Sequestration Pilot Project) and Bolivia
(the Noel Kempff Mercado Climate
Action Project) through the prevention
of deforestation and sustainable forest
management practices. These projects
are also helping to conserve local biodi-
versity, improve local environmental
quality, and meet sustainable develop-
ment goals.
Conservation International
Through its innovative partnerships
with donors, businesses, and founda-
tions, Conservation International (CI)
protects biodiversity and promotes cost-
effective emission reductions with a spe-
cial emphasis on conservation and
restoration of critical forest ecosystems.
CI implements programs through its
conservation financing mechanism, the
Conservation Enterprise Fund. It has also
established the Center for Environmen-
tal Leadership in Business, a CI/Ford
Motor Company joint venture that pro-
motes collaborative business practices
that reduce industry's ecological impacts,
contribute to conservation efforts, and
create economic value for the compa-
nies that adopt them.
2 U.S. private-sector investors participating in these
activities have included Cinergy, Detroit Edison,
PacifiCorp, Suncor, Lltilitree Carbon Company, Wis-
consin Electric/Wisconsin Gas (formerly Wisconsin
Electric Power Company), and American Electric
Power.
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 117
Private-Sector Assistance
As part of their normal business
practices, many U.S. private-sector
entities seek opportunities to expand
their markets outside of the United
States. As a result, these companies are
contributing to the transfer of climate-
friendly technologies through foreign
direct investment, commercial lending,
private equity investment, venture cap-
ital investment, and commercial sales of
"hard" technology in developing and
transition economies. Consequently,
many technologies have been trans-
ferred to the industrial, energy supply,
transportation, agriculture, and water
supply sectors.
Foreign direct investment and com-
mercial lending together represent the
primary means for long-term, private-
sector technology transfer. U.S. com-
panies like the Global Environment
Fund are making investments in foreign
private equity through such funds as
the Global Environment Strategic
Technology Partners, LP fund. This
Fund seeks investments in U.S.-based
companies whose technologies pro-
mote improvements in economic effi-
ciency, the environment, health, and
safety. It seeks new equity investment
opportunities in the range of $1—$2
million.3
Among the member countries of the
Organization for Economic Coopera-
tion and Development (OECD), ven-
ture capital—normally reserved for
high-risk, long-term investments—is
most prominent in the United States.
U.S. venture capital firms have begun
to make innovative and high-risk
investments in the environmental sec-
tor in developing countries. For exam-
ple, the Corporacion Financiera
Ambiental, capitalized in part by U.S.
investors, invests in small and medium-
sized private enterprises that undertake
environmental projects in Central
America.4 Investments range from
$100,000 to $800,000 per project.
The United States is the largest pro-
ducer of environmental technologies
and services. In 2000, commercial sales
of these technologies represented $18
billion of U.S. export flows (Business
Roundtable 2001). Typical U.S. climate
change mitigation and adaptation
exports include wastewater treatment,
water supply, renewable energy, and
heat/energy savings and management
equipment. For mitigation technologies
in the commercial, industrial, residen-
tial use, energy supply, and transporta-
tion sectors, U.S. developing country
market share in 2000 was estimated to
be $5.3 billion, or 18 percent of the
entire market for these technologies in
developing and transition economies
(USAID 2000b).
MAJOR U.S. GOVERNMENT
INITIATIVES
Three major U.S. government initia-
tives are the U.S. Initiative on Joint
Implementation, the U.S. Country
Studies Program, and the Climate
Change Initiative.
U.S. Initiative on Joint
Implementation
Launched in 1993 as part of the U.S.
Climate Change Action Plan, the U.S.
Initiative on Joint Implementation
(USIJI)5 supports the development of
voluntary projects that reduce, avoid,
or sequester greenhouse gas emissions.
These projects are implemented
between partners located in the United
States and their counterparts in other
countries. USIJI is a flexible, nonregula-
tory pilot program that encourages
U.S. businesses and NGOs to voluntar-
ily use their resources and innovative
technologies and practices to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and promote
sustainable development. USIJI also
promotes projects that test and evaluate
methodologies for measuring and track-
ing greenhouse gas reductions and veri-
fying the costs and benefits of projects.
USIJI is the largest and most devel-
oped worldwide program exploring the
potential of project-based mechanisms.
It is administered by an interagency
secretariat co-chaired by DOE and
EPA, with significant participation from
USAID and the U.S. Departments of
Agriculture, Commerce, Interior, State,
and Treasury.6
Between 1994 and 2000, the USIJI
project portfolio included 52 projects in
the following 26 countries: Argentina
(3), Belize (2), Bolivia (3), Chile (3),
Columbia (1), Costa Rica (7), Czech
Republic (1), Djibouti (1), Ecuador (1),
El Salvador (1), Equatorial Guinea (1),
Guatemala (3), Honduras (3), India (1),
Indonesia (1), Mali (1), Mauritius (1),
Mexico (4), Nicaragua (1), Panama (1),
Peru (l), Philippines (1), the Russian
Federation (6), South Africa (1), Sri
Lanka (1) and Uganda (2). On-site
implementation has begun for 24 of
these projects. In addition, eight new
projects are currently under develop-
ment (USIJI 2000)7 To support USIJI,
the U.S. government provided more
than $15.9 million in funding. Seven
projects leveraged a total of $8.5 mil-
lion in financing from private sources.8
USIJI projects involve a range of par-
ticipants and are funded through several
different mechanisms. Projects include
participants and technical experts from
U.S. and host-government agencies,
private-sector companies, industry
associations, NGOs, state and local
governments, universities, research
3 http://www.globalenvironmentfund.com/funds.htm.
4 http://www.cfa-fund.com.
5 The concept of "Joint Implementation" (Jl) was introduced early in the negotiations leading up to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, and was formally adopted into the text
of the L1NFCCC. The United States joined more than 150 countries in signing the LINFCCC, which explicitly provides through Article 4(2)(a) for signatories to meet their obli-
gation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions "jointly with other Parties." The term has been used subsequently to describe a wide range of possible arrangements between entities in
two or more countries, leading to the implementation of cooperative development projects that seek to reduce, avoid, or sequester greenhouse gas emissions
(http://www.gcrio.org/usiji/about/whatisji.html).
6 http://www.gcrio.org/usiji/about/whatisji.html.
7 This designation could mean, for example, that although project implementation activities (e.g., construction and planning) have begun, greenhouse gas benefits have not yet nec-
essarily begun to accrue. The remaining projects have not yet initiated on-site activities, and are classified as "mutually agreed."
8 Because information about private-sector investment in such projects is proprietary, the full breadth of leveraged funding under L1S1J1 cannot be ascertained.
-------
118i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
institutes, national laboratories, and
financing organizations. Project funding
is typically based on the anticipated sale
of carbon offsets,- revenues generated
directly by project activities (e.g., the
sale of timber, other biomass resources,
and energy),- investment capital from
private-sector companies,- loans pro-
vided by commercial banks and multilat-
eral organizations, such as the
International Finance Corporation,- gov-
ernment incentives,- endowments,- and
grants.9 Past technical assistance under
USIJI generally has consisted of work-
shops, guidance documents, issue papers,
hotline assistance, and meetings.10
USIJI projects span the land-use
change and forestry, energy, waste, and
agricultural sectors, and involve a range
of activities that achieve greenhouse
gas benefits. As of 2000, the aggregate
USIJI projects were anticipated to gen-
erate greenhouse gas reductions total-
ing at least 259.8 teragrams of CO2
over a period of approximately 60
years, including 5.7 teragrams of CH4,
and 4.6 gigagrams of N2O. These ben-
efits are equivalent to 350.5 teragrams
of CO2, which are expected to accrue
over project lifetimes that vary from 10
to 60 years if fully funded and imple-
mented (U.S. IJI 2000). For example,
the Noel Kempff Mercado Climate
Action Project, which conserves forest
area in the Bolivian Amazon covering
over 600,000 hectares (nearly 15 mil-
lion acres), is expected to have a net
carbon benefit of 15 teragrams of car-
bon over the next 30 years.
U.S. Country Studies Program
The UNFCCC requires all signatory
countries to provide to the Secretariat
of the Convention a national inventory
of greenhouse gas emissions by sources
and removals by sinks, and to describe
the steps they are taking to implement
the Convention, including mitigation
and adaptation measures. The U.S.
Country Studies Program (CSP) pro-
vided assistance to developing and tran-
sition economies to help meet this
commitment, and to fulfill U.S. obliga-
tions under the UNFCCC to provide
additional financial and technical
resources to developing countries. The
first round of two-year studies began in
October 1993 after the United Nations
Conference on Environment and
Development (UNCED, the Earth
Summit) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
The CSP has helped 56 countries
build the human and institutional
capacities necessary to assess their vul-
nerability to climate change and oppor-
tunities to mitigate it. Under the CSP,
the United States has helped countries
develop inventories of their anthro-
pogenic greenhouse gas emissions,
evaluate their response options for mit-
igating and adapting to climate change,
assess their vulnerability to climate
change, perform technology assess-
ments,11 develop National Communi-
cations, and disseminate analytical
information to further national and
international discussions on global
strategies for reducing the threat of cli-
mate change.12 Technical assistance
was delivered through workshops,
research, major country reports, guid-
ance documents, technical papers, con-
sultations with technical experts,
analytic tools, data, equipment, and
grants to support and facilitate climate
change studies around the world.13
In all, the CSP has helped other
countries and international institutions
produce over 160 major country
reports, 10 guidance documents, 60
workshop and conference proceedings,
and 16 special journal editions. In 1997,
the CSP completed a report entitled
Global Climate Change Mitigation Assessment
Results for Fourteen Transition and Developing
Countries (U.S. CSP 1997), and in 1998
produced Climate Change Assessments by
Developing and Transition Countries (U.S.
CSP 1998). These and numerous other
reports continue to make important
contributions to the work of the GEF,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
mate Change (IPCC), and the Sub-
sidiary Bodies to the Convention.
In response to requests from devel-
oping and transition economies, the
U.S. government supplemented the
CSP activity by helping countries
develop their national climate change
action plans. Building on the experience
of the CSP, the Support for National
Action Plans (SNAP) program provided
financial and technical assistance to
help countries use the results of their
climate change country studies to
develop action plans and technology
assessments for implementing a portfo-
lio of mitigation and adaptation meas-
ures. An objective of the SNAP phase is
to promote diffusion of mitigation and
adaptation technologies by assisting
countries with assessments of opportu-
nities for technology exchange and dif-
fusion. Countries can use these studies,
action plans, and technology assess-
ments as a basis for developing their
national communications, and to meet
their obligations under the UNFCCC.
Eighteen countries participated in the
SNAP phase of the CSP14 The CSP
activity has been completed, and the
information gained from the program is
being converted to an electronic data-
base available for future use.
Oversight for the program was pro-
vided by the U.S. Country Studies
Management Team, which was com-
posed of technical experts from EPA,
DOE, USAID, USDA, NOAA, the
National Science Foundation, and the
Departments of State, Interior, and
Health and Human Services. Between
1997 and 2000, these agencies jointly
provided a total of $9.4 million in fund-
ing for the CSP.
Climate Change Initiative
In 1998 USAID launched the
Climate Change Initiative (CCI), a
9 http://www.gcrio.org/usiji/about/whatisji.html.
10 http://www.gcrio.org/usiji/about/whatben.html.
11 http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/ap.html.
12 http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/countrystudies/index.html.
13 http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/ap.html. See also http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/countrystud-
ies/index.html.
14 http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/ap.html. These countries include Bolivia, Bulgaria, China, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hun-
gary, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Philippines, Russian Federation, Tanzania, Thailand,
Ukraine, Uruguay, and Venezuela. See also http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/countrystud-
ies/index.html.
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 119
$1 billion, five-year program to collab-
orate with developing nations and
countries with economies in transition
to reduce the threat of climate change.
This multi-agency initiative supports
activities that address climate change in
more than 40 countries and regions
around the world. Its overarching
objective is to promote sustainable
development that minimizes the associ-
ated growth in greenhouse gas emis-
sions and to reduce vulnerability to
climate change.
Through the CCI, USAID has
helped countries to mitigate green-
house gas emissions from the energy
sector, industries, and urban areas,- pro-
tect forests and farmland that can
sequester CO2 from the atmosphere,-
participate more effectively in the
UNFCCC,- and reduce their vulnerabil-
ity to the impacts of climate change. An
important aspect of the CCI is contin-
ued support for technology transfer and
public—private partnerships that work
to achieve the UNFCCC's goals. The
initiative has strengthened the U.S.
government's ability to measure the
impact of its global assistance work to
address climate change, and has helped
fulfill U.S. obligations to assist and col-
laborate with developing countries
under the UNFCCC.
From 1998 to 2000, USAID commit-
ted $478.6 million under the CCI to sup-
port climate change objectives. In
addition, USAID leveraged approxi-
mately $2.9 billion to support climate
change activities in developing and tran-
sition economies. This funding was
directly leveraged from other bilateral
and multilateral donors, the private sec-
tor, foundations, NGOs, and host-coun-
try governments. USAID also indirectly
leveraged $5.3 billion in further invest-
ments from outside sources that built on
projects it originally initiated.
In addition to the funding leveraged
under the CCI, USAID used credit
instruments available through the
Agency's Development Credit Authority
(DCA) to leverage funding for "climate-
friendly" investment in developing and
transition economies. DCA is a credit
enhancement mechanism that provides
greater flexibility in choosing the
appropriate financing tool, such as loans,
guarantees, grants, or a combination of
these, for climate change and other sus-
tainable development projects. Since its
inception in 1999, DCA credit enhance-
ments have leveraged $6.3 million in
climate-friendly private-sector financed
activities.
PUBLIC-PRIVATE
PARTNERSHIP ACTIVITIES
An important U.S. objective is to
leverage the private sector's financial
and technical capabilities to promote
sustainable development and help
address climate change in developing
and transition economies. The U.S.
government and its partners do this
through programs designed to facili-
tate dialogue, build partnerships,
and support direct investment in
climate-friendly and other sustainable
development projects. Examples of
such projects include the Tech-
nology Cooperation Agreement Pilot
Project, the U.S.—Asia Environment
Partnership, EcoLinks, and several ener-
gy and forest conservation partnerships.
The U.S. government also makes
significant efforts to engage the private
sector directly in many of its ongoing
development assistance programs, both
as key implementation partners and as a
source of supplemental funding for
climate-related activities. For example,
USAID leveraged over $3 million
from outside sources to support its
Maya Biosphere Reserve project in
Guatemala, and used a two-to-one
matching-fund program with several
organizations to collect $1.8 million in
additional funding. USAID also helped
the Mgahinga and Bwindi Impenetrable
Forest Conservation Trust in Uganda
grow to approximately $6 million, and
leveraged an additional $1 million from
the Government of Denmark to support
USAID's community conservation in 25
parishes adjacent to the Bwindi and
Mgahinga National Parks. In Ukraine,
USAID also leveraged $18 million from
the World Bank to support energy effi-
ciency in government buildings in
Kyiv, and helped private sugar mills in
India obtain $66 million in loans to
construct new bagasse cogeneration
units.
Technology Cooperation
Agreement Pilot Project
The Technology Cooperation Agree-
ment Pilot Project (TCAPP) was a bilat-
eral program initiated in 1997 as a
collaborative effort of USAID, EPA, and
DOE.15 TCAPP's primary goal was to
assist developing country partners in
defining clean-technology priorities.
To encourage the transfer of clean tech-
nologies, it focused on helping coun-
tries remove market barriers and
promote direct private investment.16
The pilot project was successful in
building support for a country-driven,
market-oriented, technology transfer
approach under the UNFCCC. Build-
ing on lessons learned from TCAPP,
which ended in 2001, these agencies
continue to support efforts to accelerate
adoption of clean-energy technologies
and practices in partner countries.
Between 1997 and 2000, the U.S.
government provided $2.9 million to
TCAPP to support technology transfer
activities in Brazil, China, Egypt, Kaza-
khstan, Mexico, Philippines, and South
Korea. Through TCAPP, the U.S. gov-
ernment has facilitated the develop-
ment of more than 20 clean-energy
business investment projects in partici-
pating countries. Overall, TCAPP has
engaged more than 400 U.S. and inter-
national business representatives to col-
laborate in developing new investment
projects and to assist with implementa-
tion of actions to remove market barri-
ers. Examples of TCAPP successes
include renewable-energy policy
reforms in the Philippines, develop-
ment of an industrial energy services
company (ESCO) pilot program in
Mexico, financial support for sugar mill
co-generation projects in Brazil, train-
ing for conducting energy audits in
15 http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/techcoop/tcapp.html and http://www.nrel.gov/tcapp.
16 http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/techcoop/tcapp.html and http://www.nrel.gov/tcapp.
-------
120 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Korea, training to verify the perform-
ance of wind turbines manufactured in
China, and development of refinery
energy efficiency pilot projects in
Egypt.
Climate Technology Initiative
The Climate Technology Initiative
(CTI), a voluntary, multilateral coopera-
tive program, supports implementation
of the UNFCCC by fostering interna-
tional cooperation for accelerated
development and diffusion of climate-
friendly technologies and practices.17
The United States, the European Com-
mission, and 11 other OECD nations
established the CTI at the First Meeting
of the Conference of Parties to the
UNFCCC (COP-1) in Berlin in 1995.18
They agreed to work collaboratively to
"accelerate development, application
and diffusion of climate-friendly tech-
nologies in all relevant sectors."19
The CTI has become an interna-
tional model of multilateral support for
technology transfer and has built devel-
oping country support for a market-
relevant approach to technology trans-
fer implementation. An important com-
ponent of the CTI is the reduction of
market barriers and other obstacles to
the transfer of climate-friendly tech-
nologies consistent with UNFCCC
objectives.20 Committed to focusing on
areas where it can make a significant
difference, the CTI works in voluntary
partnership with stakeholders, includ-
ing the private sector, NGOs, and other
international organizations. While the
CTI was designed to address all green-
house gases from a variety of sources,
its primary focus to date has been on
efficient and renewable-energy tech-
nologies.
Within the U.S. government, sup-
port for the CTI is provided jointly
by DOE, EPA, and USAID. Since
1998, these agencies have committed
over $2 million to capacity-building
activities, such as providing regional
technology training courses, conduct-
ing technology needs assessments,
and developing in-country technology
implementation plans. These plans
define opportunities for accelerating
implementation of such technologies as
energy-efficient and photovoltaic light-
ing, efficient motors and boilers,
energy-efficient housing, solar energy,
biomass electricity generation, and nat-
ural gas. They also propose actions to
improve technical capacity, increase
access to funding, or reduce policy bar-
riers to investment. More recently, the
CTI has been working with the South-
ern Africa Development Community
(SADC) to promote investment in cli-
mate-friendly technologies through
public—private partnerships. This exten-
sive effort under the CTI's Cooperative
Technology Implementation Plan pro-
gram was initiated in response to a
request by SADC energy and environ-
ment ministers participating in a March
1999 CTI/Joint Industry seminar in
Zimbabwe. Since then, the United
States has provided approximately
$320,000 in support of this effort.
U.S.-Asia Environmental
Partnership
The United States—Asia Environ-
mental Partnership (US—AEP) promotes
environmentally sustainable develop-
ment in Asia by building public-private
partnerships, developing technical
capacity, and promoting policy reforms
that lead to environmentally sound
investments, including climate-friendly
technologies. US—AEP is jointly imple-
mented by several U.S. government
agencies, under the leadership of
USAID.21 Overall, US-AEP has sup-
ported climate change activities in
Bangladesh, Hong Kong, India, Indone-
sia, South Korea, Malaysia, Nepal,
Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tai-
wan, Thailand, and Vietnam.22
US-AEP was created with the recog-
nition of Asia's growing commitment to
sustainable development and growing
U.S. interest in sharing its experience,
technology, and management practices.
With the participation of governments,
NGOs, academia, and the private sec-
tor, US—AEP has become a flexible,
responsive vehicle for delivering timely
answers to environmental questions.
US—AEP's mission has been to promote
a "clean revolution" in Asia, transform-
ing how Asia industrializes and protects
its environment through the continuing
development and adoption of less pol-
luting and more resource-efficient
products, processes, and services.23
A significant number of US—AEP
activities address climate change by
targeting the efficient use of energy
resources, and the conversion of waste
to energy. Other activities include
waste minimization, power-sector
reform, efficient electricity generation
and transmission, and renewable
energy. In 1999, for example, US—AEP
activities led to $6.6 million in con-
firmed sales of energy-efficiency and
related climate-friendly technologies
and services. Additionally, US—AEP
contributed $1.5 million to the USAID
mission in Bangladesh to launch a major
energy program there. Among its
technology transfer activities, US-AEP
also directly engaged small- to medium-
sized U.S. private-sector firms to
provide training and demonstrations
of climate-related technologies and
practices in 11 Asian countries, most of
which involved converting waste to
either energy or products, and
recycling, recovering, and reusing
materials. Also, 29 climate-related pro-
fessional exchanges and study tours
were conducted through US—AEP's
7 http://www.climatetech.org/home.shtml.
8 http://www.climatetech.org/about/index.shtmla.
9 http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/techcoop/cti.html. See http://www.climatetech.org/home.
shtml.
0 http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/techcoop/cti.html. The CTI is intended to implement and
support a number of objectives of the UNFCCC, including, for example, the requirement under Article 4.1 .c, which
calls for Parties to "Promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion, including transfer, of
technologies, practices and processes." Similarly, the CTI furthers the goals of Article 4.5, which states that Annex 1
Parties "shall take all practicable steps to promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to
environmentally sound technologies and know-how." http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/actions/international/tech-
coop/cti.html.
1 http://www.usaep.org/about.htm.
2 US-AEP Secretariat.
3 http://www.usaep.org/about.htm.
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 121
Environmental Exchange Program. The
majority of these activities addressed
the conversion of waste to energy and
products, and enhancing the efficient
use of energy and resources.
EcoLinks
Launched in 1998, Eurasian—Ameri-
can Partnerships for Environmentally
Sustainable Economies (EcoLinks) is a
LISAID initiative to help solve urban
and industrial environmental problems
through improved access to financial
resources, trade and investment, and
information technology. The program
promotes sustainable, market-based
partnerships among businesses, local
governments, and associations in Cen-
tral and Eastern Europe and in Eurasia
with U.S. businesses to identify envi-
ronmental problems and adopt best
management practices and technolo-
gies. As these partnerships mature,
trade and investment in environmental
goods and services are expected to
increase.24 EcoLinks provides support
through technology transfer and invest-
ment activities, partnership grants, and
an information technology initiative.
Countries participating in EcoLinks
include Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Mace-
donia, Poland, Romania, Russia (Far
East), and Ukraine (USAID 2000a and
2001a).
While EcoLinks does not specifically
target climate change, a large percentage
of its technology transfer activities pro-
vide climate benefits. For example,
EcoLinks addresses inadequate waste-
water treatment capacity, inefficient and
highly polluting industries and public
utilities, poor waste management prac-
tices, and weak environmental manage-
ment and regulatory systems. Some
examples of EcoLinks' trade and invest-
ment support and grants activities
include:
* In a Bulgarian municipality—Develop-
ing environmental management sys-
tems for mitigating greenhouse gas
emissions.
24 http://www.ecolinks.org/about.html.
• In Bulgaria—Developing landfill gas
extraction systems.
• In Romania—Introducing a compre-
hensive energy audit methodology.
• In Croatia—Assessing water turbines
in water delivery systems.
• In all participating countries—Facilitat-
ing technology demonstrations in
energy efficiency and alternative
energy.
• In the Czech Republic—Promoting land-
fill gas utilization technology.
• In Kazakhstan—Promoting cleaner
production in the oil and gas indus-
try.
• In Hungary—Facilitating a $1.2 mil-
lion loan to a joint U.S.—Hungarian
company promoting a new waste-
water treatment technology (USAID
2000aand2001a).
Funding and implementation for
EcoLinks are jointly provided by
USAID, the U.S. Department of Com-
merce, the Environmental Export Coun-
cil, the Global Environment and
Technology Foundation, the Institute
for International Education, and the
Regional Environment Center for Cen-
tral and Eastern Europe. Since EcoLinks
began, four grant cycles have been com-
pleted, 135 grants have been awarded,
and currently more than 100 active
projects are funded (USAID 2001a). In
2000 alone, EcoLinks awarded 41 Chal-
lenge Grants to participating country
institutions totaling nearly $2 million.
EcoLinks also provided over $536,000
in Quick Response Awards in 2000
throughout the region (USAID 200 Ic).
Energy Partnership Program
Funded by USAID and implemented
by the United States Energy Associa-
tion (USEA), the Energy Partnership
Program is an important public—private
partnership activity with climate
benefits. This program establishes prac-
titioner-to-practitioner, multi-year part-
nerships between U.S. and developing
country utilities and regulatory agen-
cies in Asia, Africa, Latin America, Cen-
tral and Eastern Europe, and the former
Soviet Union. Its main objective is to
provide a mechanism for the U.S.
energy industry (utilities, regulators,
and policymakers) to transfer its experi-
ence in market-based energy produc-
tion, transmission, and distribution to
its international counterparts, while
providing U.S. participants with the
opportunity to learn about the energy
industry in another country. Regional
program activities encompass such top-
ics as regulation, the environment, sys-
tem reliability and efficiency, renewable
energy, customer service, and financial
management, with an emphasis on mit-
igating greenhouse gas emissions.
Working with USAID, USEA identi-
fies and matches utilities or regulatory
agencies in the United States and over-
seas according to the compatibility of
their needs and capabilities, the similar-
ity of their energy systems, potential
common business interest, and other
criteria. The benefits to the foreign
partners include the opportunity for
senior executives of foreign utilities and
regulatory agencies to observe how
their U.S. counterparts are structured,
financed, managed, and regulated under
free-market conditions. The program
also offers U.S. energy executives the
opportunity to understand the dynam-
ics of non-U.S. energy markets and to
forge strategic international alliances.
Once selected, the participating organ-
izations execute partnership agree-
ments and commit to cooperate for a
two-year period, during which the part-
ners focus their exchange activities on
several key issues. Following are some
examples of these efforts.
• In India—Corporate restructuring,
increased energy efficiency through
reduction of distribution losses,
improved plant operations, develop-
ment of India's National Institute for
Power Systems and Distribution
Management, and joint-venture and
pilot projects with U.S. partners.
• In Indonesia—Managing a distribution
company in a privatized environ-
ment, utility decision making from
the private company perspective,
regulation and trading mechanisms,
and privatization of the gas industry.
• In the Philippines—Management and
corporate restructuring, quality of
service, and customer service.
-------
122 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
* In Senegal—Generating capacity
through independent power produc-
tion, improved efficiency, and
improved system reliability through
enhanced water, fuel, and materials
analysis.
* In Brazil—Delegation of regulatory
powers to Brazil's states, staff devel-
opment and training, and generation
resource portfolio planning.
Forest Conservation
Partnerships
Among the leading U.S. innovative
programs to address climate change
through forest conservation activities
are those being implemented through
NGOs, such as The Nature Conser-
vancy (TNC) and Conservation Inter-
national (CI), often in partnership with
the U.S. government and the private
sector.
International Partnership Program
TNC's International Partnership
Program (IPP) aims to strengthen the
capacity of local organizations
through collaborative efforts to pre-
serve biological diversity and forest
resources—efforts with valuable cli-
mate benefits. Through the IPP, TNC
now works with more than 70 partner
organizations in 26 countries through-
out the Asia Pacific, Caribbean, and
Latin America regions. The program
specifically emphasizes the opportuni-
ties for promoting local leadership in
biodiversity conservation, and improv-
ing access to technical information and
expertise. As a result of the program,
TNC and its partners have protected
more than 32,375 hectares (over 80
million acres) of land in these locations
that include climate projects to pre-
serve forests, protect carbon sinks, and
provide jobs,- ecotourism training that
enables fishermen to thrive by protect-
ing rivers and coastal areas,- and com-
munity-led marine conservation that
empowers villagers to manage the fish-
eries that support their livelihoods.25
EcoEnterprise Fund
TNC's relatively new EcoEnterprise
Fund is a joint initiative with the Inter-
American Development Bank that seeks
to use venture capital to protect natural
areas in Latin America and the
Caribbean. The Fund includes two
components: (1) an investment fund
that provides venture capital to prof-
itable businesses involved in sustainable
agriculture, sustainable forestry, eco-
tourism, and other environmentally
compatible businesses,- and (2) limited
technical assistance funds to provide
business advisory services to prospec-
tive projects. Participating companies
are required to collaborate with a non-
profit conservation or community part-
ner, by paying fees for monitoring
services, by sharing profits, or by other
financial arrangements. The Fund
invests in ventures at all stages of devel-
opment with prospective sales revenues
up to $3 million. It gives preference to
businesses that are unable to secure
financing from conventional sources
due to their small size, the innovative
nature of their business, and/or the
financial risks involved.26
Conservation Enterprise Fund
Similar to TNC's EcoEnterprise
Fund, CI's Conservation Enterprise
Fund (CEF) was created in 1999 with a
$1 million loan from the International
Finance Corporation's Small and
Medium Enterprise Global Environ-
mental Facility program. The CEF is a
development tool that enables conser-
vation enterprises to expand their oper-
ations through financial leveraging. CI
acts as the financial intermediary to
provide $25,000-$250,000 in debt
and equity financing to small and
medium-sized enterprises (possessing
$5 million or less in assets) that are
strategically important to conservation.
For instance, a CEF loan helped coffee
farmers in Chiapas, Mexico, finance
post-harvest expenses in 1999. CEF
funds are also directed to businesses
engaged in agroforestry, ecotourism,
and wild-harvest products.27
U.S. GOVERNMENT
ASSISTANCE ADDRESSING
VULNERABILITY AND
ADAPTATION
Assisting countries that are particu-
larly vulnerable to the adverse effects of
climate change is a high priority for the
United States. The U.S. government
has provided extensive financial and
technical support to such countries for
many years, primarily through a num-
ber of programs designed to address
disaster preparedness and relief, food
security and sustainable agricultural
production, biodiversity conservation,
water resources management, and cli-
mate research and weather prediction
programs. These activities involve
numerous government agencies, such as
USAID, NOAA, USDA, DOE, and
EPA.
For example, under the U.S. Coun-
try Studies Program, the U.S. govern-
ment has provided support to
developing countries to conduct assess-
ments of climate change vulnerability
and adaptation options. Under the
UNFCCC and pursuant to guidance
from the GEF, donor nations are obli-
gated to help developing nations partic-
ipate in research and systematic
observation of climate change, assess
their vulnerability, prepare adaptation
strategies, and implement adaptation
measures. The results of these assess-
ments and studies have been highly
successful at promoting more meaning-
ful participation by developing coun-
tries in the UNFCCC process, and at
more accurately gauging potential risks
and adaptation measures to address
long- and short-term climate impacts.
More detail on these activities is pro-
vided later in this chapter. More spe-
cific financial information about U.S.
adaptation activities appears in Appen-
dix C and in the section of this chapter
concerning financial flows.
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 123
U.S. FINANCIAL FLOW
INFORMATION, 1997-2000
This chapter presents financial
resource information for the years
1997-2000. This information is also
presented in Tables 7-1, 7-2, and 7-3.
For the table on financial flows to spe-
cific countries and regions (Table 7-3 in
Appendix C), this chapter goes beyond
the minimum guidance requirement of
presenting each flow by year, country,
and sector. To provide a more complete
description of these financial flows, fur-
ther detail has been included to show
both the type of flow and its source. To
provide a framework for analysis, the
chapter follows the approach of Method-
ological and Technological Issues in Technology
Trends (IPCC 2000).
Financial information provided in
this chapter is derived from the U.S.
government, foundations, and other
sources of financing to institutions
supporting climate change mitigation,
adaptation, and technology transfer
activities in developing and transition
economies. To a limited extent, this
report also includes information about
financial flows from the U.S. private
sector, which if fully accounted for
would be expected to far outweigh all
other financial flows. Because private-
sector financial and investment infor-
mation is mostly proprietary and not
available to the public, only two of
these flows to climate change mitiga-
tion and adaptation activities are even
partly accounted for in the tables that
follow.28
Recipients of U.S. financial re-
sources include the GEF (reported in
Table 7-1), multilateral institutions
(reported in Table 7-2), as well as
NGOs, universities, research institu-
tions, and foreign governments. While
some of this funding is provided to
U.S.-based institutions, only those
activities providing assistance directly
to developing countries and countries
with economies in transition are
reported here.
Due to the difficulty in identifying
exact expenditures under most U.S.
government programs, financial infor-
mation provided in this report refers
only to those activities for which fund-
ing was obligated in the given year,
from 1997 to 2000, and in some cases
2001. In most cases, U.S. government
information referred to the fiscal year
for which funding was obligated—i.e.,
beginning October 1 in the year prior
to and ending September 30 in the cal-
endar year in question. For example,
Fiscal Year 1997 began October 1,
1996, and ended September 30, 1997.
In most other cases, including funding
from U.S. foundations and other pub-
lic and private institutions, informa-
tion relates to the calendar year in
which funding was awarded.
Financial Contributions to the
Global Environment Facility
The Global Environment Facility
(GEF) was established in 1991 to forge
international cooperation and finance
actions for addressing critical threats to
the global environment resulting from
the loss of biological diversity, climate
change, degradation of international
waters, and ozone depletion. It also
provides funding to address the perva-
sive problem of land degradation. The
GEF is now the interim financial mech-
anism for the Protocol on Persistent
Organic Pollutants and acts as the
financial mechanism of both the Con-
vention on Biological Diversity and the
UNFCCC. The GEF leverages its
resources through co-financing and
cooperation with other donor groups
and the private sector. In 1998, 36
nations pledged a total of $2.75 billion
in funding to protect the global envi-
ronment and promote sustainable
development. The United States has
been a member country and supporter
of the GEF since 1994. As of December
2000, 167 countries were participating
members of the GEF29
Aggregated U.S.
Government Funding
Between 1997 and 2000, the U.S.
government has provided $285.8 mil-
lion to the GEF. Recently, President
Bush announced his Administration's
intention to fully fund payment for
arrears incurred during the previous
Administration. The President's budget
request for fiscal year 2003 includes $70
million for the first installment of this
payment.
U.S. government funding to the
GEF, as all donors' funding, is provided
in aggregate and not differentiated by
type of activity. However, a significant
portion of GEF activities addresses cli-
mate change, both directly through the
climate change focal area and indirectly
through other focal areas. For instance,
programs that address biological diver-
sity and coastal zone management also
help address vulnerability and adapta-
tion of numerous species to changing
climatic conditions. Currently approxi-
mately 38 percent of GEF grants sup-
port activities specifically related to
climate change. This is only surpassed
by GEF support for biodiversity activi-
ties, which comprise 42 percent of the
overall portfolio. Table 7-1 provides
annual U.S. contributions to the GEF
for the years 1997 through 2000.
Financial Contributions to
Multilateral Institutions
and Programs
The U.S. government provides direct
financial support to multilateral institu-
tions, such as the United Nations and
development banks, in recognition of
their important role in meeting the goals
of sustainable economic development,
poverty alleviation, and protection of
the global environment (Table 7-2).
28 The information reported here was collected and analyzed from primary sources, including surveys of various U.S.
government agencies, foundations, NGOs, private-sector companies, and queries of official U.S. government data-
bases. In the case of commercial sales flows, the United States queried the U.S. International Trade Commission's
database for U.S. export values for the energy (renewables and process efficiency) and water supply/wastewater sec-
tors based on internationally agreed-upon harmonized tariff system codes (HTS). The United States chose the appro-
priate codes (HTS6 and HTSlO) at the most detailed level possible to best select and account for only
climate-friendly exports. The United States referenced both its own and OECD's analyses on environmental export
values in creating this query (US-AEP 2000, OECD 2000).
29 http://www.gefweb.org/.
-------
124 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Aggregated U.S. Government
Funding for Multilateral Institutions
Between 1997 and 2000, the U.S.
government provided funds to numer-
ous multilateral banks and institutions
through block grants. The funding is
not specifically disaggregated by type
of activity because donors meet their
commitments by providing annual con-
tributions that do not include earmarks
for specific activities. Therefore, those
activities that supported greenhouse
gas emissions mitigation or addressed
vulnerability and adaptation to climate
impacts in developing and transition
economies represent a portion of the
total funding shown.
Between 1997 and 2000, the U.S.
government also provided $3.9 million
to the supplementary UNFCCC trust
fund to support general participation in
the Convention. These activities
included support for the development
of National Communications by non-
Annex I (developing) countries, as well
as information systems and databases of
national greenhouse gas emission
inventories.
Other Funding for Multilateral
Scientific, Technological, and
Training Programs
In 2000, the U.S. government pro-
vided grant funding to the World Mete-
TABLE 7-1 Financial Contributions to the Global Environment Facility:
1997-2000 (Millions of U.S. Dollars)
Since 1997, the U.S. government has provided $285.8 million to the GEF, which has a num-
ber of focal areas, including climate change.
35 5 38 285
Note: Information for GEF contributions is based on U.S. annual appropriations by fiscal year (October 1-
September 30), which does not directly correspond to the calendar year. For example, for calendar year
1997, the figure used is from fiscal year 1997 (October 1, 1996-September 30, 1997).
TABLE 7-2 Financial Contributions to Multilateral Institutions and Programs
(Millions of U.S. Dollars)
The U.S. government provides direct funding to multilateral institutions in support of sus-
tainable economic development, poverty alleviation, and protection of the global environ-
ment.
700.0
6.7
0
113.2
11.9
1,034.0
0
45.0
150.0
35.8
800.0
0
128.0
223.2
35.8
771.1
0
131.1
90.7
35.8
3,305.1
6.7
304.1
577.1
119.3
lnstituti£^^
Multilateral Institutions
World Bank
International Finance Corporation
African Development Bank
Asian Development Bank
European Bankfor Reconstruction
and Development
Inter-American Development Bank
United Nations Development Program
United Nations Environment Program*
UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Multilateral Scientific, Technological,
and Training Programs
World Meteorological Organization*
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change
25.6
76.0
11.0
2.6
25.6
93.7
9.0
3.9
25.6
97.4
12.0
3.8
25.6
77.9
10.0
4.9
102.4
345.0
42.0
15.2
2.0
0.7
1.5
1.0
2.0
2.7
2.0
1.6
7.5
6.0
*U.S. total voluntary contributions only from the International Organizations and Programs account.
orological Organization in support of
climate forecasting at the Drought
Monitoring Center in Nairobi, Kenya
(DMC-N). In collaboration with
Columbia University's International
Institute for Climate Prediction, this
activity seeks to improve the capabili-
ties of the DMC-N to provide reliable
forecasts and early warning of extreme
climate events, such as drought and
floods.
Bilateral and Regional
Financial Contributions
This section provides information on
bilateral and regional financial contri-
butions by U.S. foundations, NGOs,
universities, the private sector, and the
U.S. government related to climate
change mitigation and adaptation activ-
ities. U.S. financial flows by year, coun-
try, and type of activity are presented in
Table 7-3 in Appendix C.
To provide a more accurate repre-
sentation of U.S. financial flows, sev-
eral categories of activities have been
expanded from those in the UNFCCC
guidance, and two new categories have
been added. The new category Support
for FCCC Participation refers to activities
where the United States has supported
developing and transition economies
to participate in international meet-
ings, discussions, and training events.
Crosscuttmtj Activities refers to activities
and programs that cannot be easily
listed under a single category. Many of
these "crosscutting" activities, for
example, simultaneously provide both
mitigation and adaptation benefits.
It is important to note that U.S.
funding data—collected from hundreds
of offices and divisions of over a dozen
U.S. government agencies, as well as
from numerous other public and private
institutions—are difficult to categorize
into the list of climate change topics
requested in the UNFCCC guidelines.
In many instances, U.S.-funded climate
change activities could have been
included under more than one topic
area. For example, U.S. government
agencies often label most activities that
support industry, transportation, or
waste management as "energy." In
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 125
addition, it is difficult in U.S. govern-
ment programs to clearly distinguish
between forest and biodiversity conser-
vation programs, or between carbon
sequestration programs (that apply for-
est and biodiversity conservation
approaches) and adaptation programs
(that seek to protect species endangered
by changing climatic conditions). Simi-
larly, many agricultural programs simul-
taneously support vulnerability
assessments for climate impacts (i.e.,
severe weather), flood risk, desertifica-
tion, drought, water supply, and/or food
security.
While new categories have been
included, most have been added as sub-
categories of the original headings pro-
vided in the UNFCCC guidelines. In
this manner, total figures may be calcu-
lated within each main category for
direct comparison with other countries'
submissions. In addition, total figures
may be calculated across regions and
sectors. This more detailed representa-
tion of U.S.-funded climate change
activities should promote more transpar-
ent and comprehensive understanding of
the kind of support and attention the
United States has provided in respond-
ing to climate change through technol-
ogy transfer and development assistance
programs.
SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL
FLOW INFORMATION FOR
1997-2000
From 1997 to 2000, the United States
provided more than $4.1 billion in direct
funding to activities in developing and
transition economies. This funding
included greenhouse gas mitigation in
the energy, industrial, and waste man-
agement sectors,- carbon sequestration
through improved forest and biodiver-
sity conservation and sustainable agricul-
ture,- activities that address vulnerability
and adaptation to climate impacts
through improved water supply, disaster
preparedness, food security, and
research,- and other global climate
change activities. In the energy and
water supply categories, commercial
sales from private industry have enabled
the transfer of technologies valued at
approximately $3.6 billion.
As shown in Table 7-3 in Appendix
C, funding levels varied considerably
between different categories. In addi-
tion to variations in U.S. government
programming practices, this occurred in
part because some categories (such as
energy, water supply, and waste man-
agement) are very capital-intensive,
while others (such as forest manage-
ment or vulnerability assessment)
require less capital investment.
In addition to direct funding and
commercial sales, the United States
provided $954.3 million in indirect
funding between 1997 and 2000. This
funding contributed to infrastructure
projects and technologies that sup-
ported greenhouse gas mitigation in the
energy sector.
Funding Types
This chapter reports direct support
in the form of official development
assistance (ODA) and official assistance
(OA), grants from foundations and
other philanthropic institutions, U.S.
government-backed project financing,
NGO funds, foreign direct investment
(FDI), and commercial sales from pri-
vate industry.30 From 1997 to 2000,
commercial sales and ODA/OA
accounted for the largest share of direct
support, followed by loans, foundation
grants, FDI, and NGO funding (Figure
7-1). ODA, OA, grants, and to some
extent NGO funds were directed to for-
eign governments, NGOs, and research
institutions, as well as to U.S.-based
institutions working in developing
countries and transition economies.
It is estimated that U.S. FDI com-
prises the vast majority of funding that
goes to climate change-related activi-
ties in developing and transition
economies. However, because most
information about the financing and
implementation of private-sector proj-
ects is proprietary, very little FDI is
reported under Table 7-3. What is
reported generally includes project
development and implementation of
USIJI energy and land-use mitigation
projects. For these particular projects,
annual financial contributions have
ranged from $9,000 to $1.8 million per
project.
U.S. government-based project
financing has supported financing for
private-sector infrastructure develop-
ment. Loan amounts typically ranged
from $60 million to $123 million per
project, often providing a portion of the
full project capitalization in conjunc-
tion with other funding sources. U.S.
commercial sales of climate-friendly
FIGURE 7-1 Commercial Sales and
Direct Financial Flows:
1997-2000
From 1997 to 2000, commercial sales and
official development assistance/official
assistance (ODA/OA) accounted for the
largest shares of direct support for activ-
ities that address mitigation of and adap-
tation to climate change.
3,647.2
500
450
400
350
t§ 300
CO
S 25°
o
£
§ 200
§ 150
100
50
0
-------
126 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
environmental goods and services cap-
ture much of the "hard" technology or
equipment exported to developing and
transition economies. Annual commer-
cial sales flows have ranged from $2,505
to $75.6 million per transaction.
Indirect financing, which includes
risk guarantees, loan guarantees, and
investment insurance, has contributed
to the development of large private-sec-
tor energy infrastructure projects (Fig-
ure 7-2). The difference between direct
and indirect financing is that the indi-
rect flows do not represent actual trans-
fers of cash, but rather guarantees to
financial institutions and companies
that the United States will cover the
guaranteed amount of the total losses
resulting from loan defaults, or other
risks to a creditor or company. Indirect
flows typically have ranged from $3.1
million to $200 million per project.
Regional Trends
From 1997 to 2000, the United
States provided over $1.1 billion to Asia
and the Near East, $2 billion to Latin
America and the Caribbean, $390.9
million to sub-Saharan Africa, $276.9
million to Europe and Eurasia, and
$275.4 million to other global programs
for the direct financing of mitigation,
adaptation, and other climate change
activities. With commercial sales of
technologies and services, the United
States provided $1.9 billion to Asia and
the Near East, $1.5 billion to Latin
America and the Caribbean, $134.0
million to sub-Saharan Africa, and
$76.2 million to Europe and Eurasia.
With respect to indirect financing, the
United States provided $425.5 million
to Asia and the Near East, $467.1 mil-
lion to Latin America and the
Caribbean, and $61.7 million to Europe
and Eurasia (Figure 7-3).
Funding has varied across regions in
part because of differences between
regional development priorities and
because of the types of financial
resources that have been mobilized for
that region. A region's or subregion's
development needs, geography, and
investment environment often deter-
mine the types of climate change miti-
gation and adaptation projects that the
United States funds. In addition, the
distribution of the three dominant
financial flow types—ODA, loans, and
commercial sales—explains the huge
FIGORE 7-2 Indirect Financial Flows in
the U.S. Energy Sector:
1997-2000
Indirect flows, which includes risk guaran-
tees, loan guarantees, and investment
insurance, has contributed to the develop-
ment of large private-sector energy infra-
structure projects. Indirect flows represent
guarantees to financial institutions and
companies that the United States will cover
the guaranteed amount of the total losses
resulting from loan defaults, or other risks to
a creditor or company.
I
i
CO
100
FIGORE 7-3 Regional and Global Direct, Commercial Sales, and Indirect
Financial Flows: 1997-2000
From 1997 to 2000, the United States provided billions of dollars for mitigation, adaptation,
and other climate change activities, specifically: $4.1 billion in direct financing, $3.6 billion
for commercial sales of technologies and services, and $943 million in indirect financing.
5,000
Africa
Asia/Near East
Global
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 127
variances in the magnitude of financial
flows across regions and across time. In
particular, a few loans that supported
energy-sector activities far exceeded
the relative funding levels provided
through ODA, and actually doubled or
tripled the baseline flows to a particular
region. These activities have tended to
be infrequent, one-time loans for single
projects in a single country.
For example, from 1997 to 2000 in
Asia and the Near East, the United
States provided the energy sector
$504.5 million in direct financing,
$411.2 million in commercial sales, and
$425.5 million in indirect financing. For
the water supply sector, the United
States provided $337.7 million in direct
financing and $1.5 billion in commer-
cial sales of relevant equipment and
technologies. This funding distribution
is representative of the region's experi-
ence with water supply constraints and
increasing energy demand. In another
example, to support forestry-related
activities, the United States provided
direct financing of $144.3 million to
Latin America and the Caribbean,
$121.2 million to Africa, and $121.2
million to Asia and the Near East over
the same period. These regions boast
significant potential for conservation of
carbon stocks and other climate-
friendly forest and biodiversity conser-
vation opportunities (see Appendix C).
Mitigation Activities
From 1997 to 2000, the United
States spent $2.4 billion overall on
climate change mitigation in the form
of ODA, U.S. government-backed
loans, foundation grants, NGO funds,
FDI, and commercial sales. The United
States also indirectly financed climate
change mitigation activities in the
amount of $954.3 million. Following
the UNFCCC guidance for Table 7-3
(in Appendix C), the mitigation activi-
ties reported here include emission-
reduction initiatives in the energy,
transportation, forestry, agriculture,
waste management, and industrial sec-
tors. To more accurately represent
U.S.-supported activities, the forestry
sector has been divided into two sub-
categories: forest conservation and bio-
diversity conservation (Figure 7-4).
Energy
The majority of U.S. spending on
mitigation of climate change from 1997
to 2000 was directed toward energy-
related projects, totaling approximately
$1 billion in direct financing and
$862.4 million in commercial sales.31 In
indirect financing, the United States
leveraged $954.3 million for climate-
friendly investments, all of which went
to the energy sector (see Appendix C).
U.S. support for climate technology
transfer in this sector has varied widely
throughout the world to include
complex, large-scale infrastructure
investment and development,- extensive
FIGURE 7-4 U.S. Financial Flows by Mitigation Sector and
Financial Flow Type: 1997-2000
From 1997 to 2000, the United States directly financed $2.4 billion and indirectly financed
$954.3 million for activities to mitigate the effects of climate change.
§
600
400
CO
<3
j
i
200
I
ODA/OA
Commercial Sales
Government-Financed Loans
Foundation Grants
FDI
NGO Funds
i
< 5
O r-
-
B
< §
•
I
\<»
Note: ODA/OA = official development assistance/official assistance; FDI = foreign direct investment;
NGO = nongovernmental organization.
31 In selecting commercial sales transactions applicable to the energy sector, the U.S. limited its query to equipment for heat and energy management and renewable energy plants, as
determined by the US—AEP study that examined U.S. environmental exports (US—AEP/USA1D 2000). These commodities included (1) photosensitive semiconductor devices/pho-
tovoltaic cells and light-emitting diodes,- (2) heat-exchange units, nondomestic, nonelectric,- (3) electric-generating sets,- (4) parts of hydraulic turbines and water wheels, including
regulators,- (5) hydraulic turbines and water wheels of a power exceeding 10,000 K.W,- (6) instantaneous or storage water heater, nonelectric,- (7) hydraulic turbines and water wheels
of a power exceeding 1,000 K.W but not exceeding 10,000 K.W,- and (8) hydraulic turbines and water wheels of a power not exceeding 1,000 K.W.
-------
128 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
capacity building for power-sector
policy and regulatory reform,- improve-
ments in the development and propaga-
tion of energy-efficiency, renewable-
energy, and clean-energy technologies
and practices,- and conservation prac-
tices at the municipal and household
levels. U.S. support for this sector has
often included overlap with the
transportation, industrial, and waste
management sectors.
U.S. support for technical assistance
and training has contributed to policy
reforms and increased energy-efficient
operations in the power and industrial
sectors. For example, USAID supported
a number of significant utility restructur-
ing and regulatory reform activities,
including adjustments to energy tariffs
and fuel pricing in countries in Asia, the
Near East, Europe, and Eurasia. These
efforts have largely resulted in improved
market efficiency, cost-effective man-
agement, and reduced greenhouse gas
emissions through the use of innovative
technologies, improved management
practices, and incentives that increase
the efficiency of energy production, dis-
tribution, and consumption. Among its
numerous energy-efficiency activities
worldwide, USAID has worked with the
Egyptian government to provide techni-
cal assistance to enhance power station
efficiency, reduce losses in transmission,
and introduce time-of-day metering to
regulate the flow of electricity. These
efforts have resulted in considerable sav-
ings in annual carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions.
USAID also partnered with the
United States Energy Association to
establish an International Climate
Change Project Fund that provides sup-
port to U.S. investor-owned utilities and
other energy companies to implement
specific projects that mitigate emissions
in USAID-assisted countries in Asia,
Africa, and Latin America. One of the
Fund's projects selected in 2000 is the
SENELEC Network Power Generation
Efficiency Project in Senegal which,
through partnering with the U.S.-based
Electrotek Concepts, will increase the
efficiency, reliability, and power quality
of the primary electricity supply system
operated by this national electric utility.
This project is expected to eliminate 315
gigagrams of CO2 over its 10-year life-
time and reduce fuel imports to Senegal
by an estimated 140,000 barrels a year.
In Mexico, USAID's Steam and Com-
bustion Efficiency Pilot Project has
promoted high-efficiency motors, com-
pressors, pumps, and lighting to demon-
strate the linkages between reducing
emissions and increasing energy effi-
ciency. In 1999, this effort resulted in a
reduction of more than 325 gigagrams of
CO2 emissions.
U.S. support for broader infrastruc-
ture financing has also helped advance
the use of renewable energy, energy
efficiency, and clean energy in develop-
ing and transition economies. For
example, the Export—Import Bank of
the United States has financed com-
bined-cycle plants in Latin America and
the Caribbean, Asia, the Near East,
Europe, and Eurasia. These plants
exhibit high efficiency as they combine
the use of natural gas and a low heat
rate, which results in lower CO2 pro-
duction per kilowatt-hour of generated
electricity. Support from U.S. power
companies and NGOs financed the
pilot phase of a rural solar electrifica-
tion project in Bolivia, which is
expected to avoid 1.3 gigagrams of
CO, over its 20-year lifetime. In Bul-
garia, USAID's Development Credit
Authority program provided a partial
loan guarantee for United Bank of Bul-
garia to enable consumers in Bulgaria to
finance municipal energy-efficiency
improvements. As a result of this credit
enhancement program, USAID lever-
aged $6.3 million in private capital at a
cost of $435,000.
In addition to supporting large proj-
ects focused on energy supply, the
United States has addressed the
demand side of the power sector. For
example, EPA has collaborated with
authorities in China to reduce energy
use by establishing minimum energy-
efficiency levels for fluorescent lamp
ballasts and room air conditioners. EPA
has also worked to increase the energy-
efficiency levels of refrigerators. Plans
are now underway to strengthen the
Chinese voluntary energy-efficiency
label through technical cooperation
with the U.S. ENERGY STAR® program—
an initiative that promotes energy-
efficient solutions for businesses and
consumers that save money as well as
the environment.
Transportation
From 1997 to 2000, the United
States spent approximately $25.3
million in ODA funding on climate-
related activities in the transportation
sector (see Appendix C). Note that a
significant number of U.S. government
projects supporting climate-related
activities in the transportation sector
are counted under "Energy."
U.S. international programs to
address climate change through trans-
portation have included efforts to
improve engine and fuel efficiency, pro-
mote improved transportation manage-
ment and planning, support alternative
transportation systems, and introduce
cleaner fuels and alternative-fuel tech-
nologies. For example, several USAID
programs operating in Egypt, India, the
Philippines, and Mexico seek to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions from motor
vehicles, while also reducing lead, par-
ticulates, and smog-forming emissions.
The U.S. Department of Transporta-
tion's Center for Climate Change and
Environmental Forecasting has sup-
ported strategic planning, policy
research, communication, and out-
reach, as well as the preliminary assess-
ment of project-specific international
emission-trading opportunities in India,
China, Indonesia, and Brazil.32 DOE
and the Ministry of Science and Tech-
nology of the People's Republic of
China have been collaborating on
research and development of electric
and hybrid electric vehicle technology.
The U.S. Trade and Development
Agency (TDA) has financed numerous
feasibility studies, orientation visits,
and other training and technical
32 Given the current U.S. congressional restrictions on
resource allocation for all efforts aimed at implement-
ing Kyoto Protocol provisions, the USDOT/FHWA
activities are focused only on raising the level of
awareness among the potential domestic and interna-
tional stakeholders.
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 129
assistance activities for railway, mass
transit, and transportation system effi-
ciency improvements throughout the
developing world. For example, TDA
provided $220,000 for a feasibility
study of the light rail project on the
island of Cebu—the fastest-growing
region and second-largest metropolitan
area in the Philippines.
Forestry
The United States spent over $439.4
from 1997 to 2000 on climate change
activities in the forestry sector (see
Appendix C). This funding included
traditional forest conservation and
management activities, biodiversity
conservation, and related natural
resource management activities that
improved the technical capacity of
national and local governments,
NGOs, and local communities to man-
age and conserve forests. The United
States has also provided direct invest-
ment in protection of natural areas to
reduce the rate of loss of, preserve, or
increase carbon stock capacity. Overall,
the majority of resources expended in
this area went toward biodiversity con-
servation programs.
Forest Conservation. From 1997 to
2000, the U.S. government spent $96.7
million on forest conservation in
Central and South America, Africa,
Asia, and Europe and Eurasia (Figure
7-5). For example, USAID has
addressed rapid deforestation in the
Amazon tropical rain forest by funding
scientific studies that use satellite
imagery to analyze deforestation trends
to better understand specific risks from
drought, illegal logging, accidental
fires, and agriculture practices.
In Mexico, following the 1997 and
1998 wildfire disasters, USAID, the
Mexican government, and local NGOs
jointly developed a wildfire prevention
and land restoration program to miti-
gate environmental, health, and climate
effects from forest fires. USAID helped
lead several efforts to adopt policies
discouraging slash-and-burn agricul-
ture, improve collaboration between
Mexico's federal government and
NGOs, and provide training on fire
prevention and wildfire management.
As a result, local fire brigades were able
to control and extinguish fires much
more effectively, and in 1999 Mexico
experienced a decrease in the area nor-
mally affected by fires. Efforts are
underway to assess the amount of car-
bon potentially sequestered as a result
of Mexico's fire restoration efforts.
By working with communities to
establish clear boundaries for commu-
nity management, control agricultural
clearing, and implement monitoring
plans, USAID facilitated the transfer of
over 625,000 hectares (over 15 million
acres) of forest to local management in
the Philippines. After four years, about
5.5 million hectares of forestland—over
60 percent of the country's open-access
forests—are now under community
management. Without such interven-
tions, the country's forest cover would
have declined by an estimated 6 per-
cent during the same period.
Through the USIJI program, the
U.S.-based NatSource Institutional
Energy Brokers, the Costa Rican Min-
istry of the Environment and Energy,
and the Costa Rican National Parks
Foundation have begun implementing
the Territorial and Financial Consolida-
tion of Costa Rican National Parks and
Biological Reserves Project. This "certi-
fied tradable offset" project facilitates
the transfer of primary forest, second-
ary forest, and pasture lands that have
been declared National Parks or Biolog-
ical Reserve to the Costa Rican Min-
istry of Environment and Energy
(MINAE). Over its 25-year life, the
project is expected to avoid an
FIGURE 7-5 Direct, Commercial Sales, and Indirect Financial Flows by
Mitigation/Adaptation Sector: 1997-2000
From 1997 to 2000, the majority of U.S. spending on climate change mitigation activities was
directed toward energy-related projects, totaling approximately $1 billion in direct financ-
ing, $862.4 million in commercial sales, and $954.3 million in indirect financing for climate-
friendly investments.
P
-n-
i 1,000
CO
1
5M
Commercials Sales
Direct
Indirect
CV1
$&^&^<&ZS'<&>
.^
^
-------
130 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
estimated 57 teragrams of CO2 emis-
sions.
Biodiversity Conservation. From 1997
to 2000, the U.S. government spent
$342.7 on biodiversity conservation
activities, such as establishing and man-
aging protected areas, providing train-
ing in habitat conservation, and
promoting sustainable resource man-
agement (Figure 7-5). Funding for bio-
diversity activities has come primarily
from USAID, USIJI projects, and pri-
vate foundations, usually in partnership
with international NGOs, research
institutions, and host-country govern-
ments and organizations.
USAID's Parks-in-Peril program, a
partnership with The Nature Conser-
vancy and local NGOs, has become
Latin America's largest, most successful
site-based conservation effort. Working
in 37 protected areas in 15 countries,
this program has helped protect over 11
million hectares (more than 271 million
acres) of natural forests, of which 6.3
million hectares (more than 155 million
acres) contain substantial carbon stocks.
In Bulgaria, USAID's GEF Biodiver-
sity Project has strengthened a network
of protected areas, with a specific focus
on the Rila and Central Balkan National
Parks, totaling 179,622 hectares (over 4
million acres). The project has provided
policy development assistance, pro-
moted sustainable economic use of bio-
logical resources, and built local capacity
to manage the parks.
In similar efforts, the MacArthur
Foundation's Ecosytems Conservation
Policy grant program has supported ini-
tiatives in Nepal and Tibet totaling
$100,000. The March for Conservation
program has supported coastal zone bio-
diversity and conservation education in
Sri Lanka ($75,000), and Terra Capital
Investors Limited's venture capital fund
($1 million) invests in Latin American
businesses that involve the sustainable
use of natural resources and foster the
preservation of biological diversity.
In Guatemala, the home of the Maya
Biosphere Reserve and one of the largest
tracts of intact tropical forests, USAID
has worked to reduce deforestation rates
and promote carbon sequestration. By
supporting improved land- and
resource-use practices, an improved
policy framework, and stronger local
institutions through technical assis-
tance, training, and farmer-to-farmer
extension networks, this work had led
to the protection of approximately
700,000 hectares (more than 17 million
acres) in 1999.
USAID's work in Indonesia took
steps to protect the West Kalimantan
tropical broadleaf forest, where approx-
imately 43,000 hectares (more than 1
million acres) are now under effective
management as villagers organize, cre-
ate maps of, and impose rules on har-
vesting the natural resources. In 2000,
USAID also supported resource valua-
tion studies for communities in Indone-
sia's Bunaken National Park to
demonstrate the relative monetary
value per hectare and per family that
biologically diverse forests have, as
compared with oil palm monoculture
forests.
In Madagascar, USAID has sought
to preserve biologically diverse carbon
stocks and reduce their rate of loss.
Working with the National Association
for Management of Protected Areas
(ANGAP) and the Ministry of Water
and Forest (MEF), USAID supported
the growth and sound management of
Madagascar's Protected Area Network,
as well as forests and important biolog-
ical areas outside of the network. These
programs specifically focus on protec-
tion and improved management of
existing areas of biological importance,
reducing slash-and-burn agriculture,
and increasing agroforestry and tree
nursery efforts to promote reforestation
of multiple-use, high-economic-value,
or indigenous tree species.
Agriculture
Between 1997 and 2000, the United
States spent approximately $31.7 mil-
lion on climate-related activities in agri-
culture (see Appendix C). These
financial resources have promoted
agroforestry, reduced tillage, erosion
control, introduction of perennial crops
and crop rotation, improved nitrogen
and soil management, use of organic
fertilizers, and improved management
of agrochemicals.
In Uganda and Madagascar, for
example, USAID has supported sustain-
able farming systems and agroforestry to
improve agricultural output while
enhancing the carbon storage potential
in soils and crops. In Kenya, the Ford
Foundation has supported Winrock
International's Institute for Agricultural
Development to strengthen associations
of women professionals in agriculture
and the environment in East Africa. The
Institute has enhanced food security and
environmental conservation by prepar-
ing women for leadership roles in
agricultural and environment-related sci-
ences.
In Chiapas, Mexico, a ground-break-
ing partnership between Starbucks Cof-
fee and Conservation International (CI)
begun in 1998 has promoted cultivation
that incorporates biodiversity protection
and environmentally sustainable agricul-
tural practices. Under the partnership,
CI assists farmers in the El Triunfo Bios-
phere Reserve, in the Sierra Madre de
Chiapas, to produce coffee under the
shade of the forest canopy using prac-
tices that avoid the need to clear
forested lands.
Waste Management
The United States spent over $40.8
million from 1997 to 2000 on activities
supporting greenhouse gas mitigation
in the waste management sector (see
Appendix C).33 These activities prima-
rily addressed the development and
implementation of waste-to-energy
programs involving the recovery of
greenhouse gases, such as methane
from solid waste disposal facilities. For
example, US—AEP and Conservation
Services Group (CSG) Energy Services
jointly implemented an energy-
efficiency technology and pollution
prevention project in India in partner-
ship with several universities and India's
33 Financial information on some waste management ini-
tiatives was not available, especially with regard to pri-
vate-sector activities. Note, a considerable number of
industrial-sector activities have been included under
"Energy," above.
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 131
Thane-Belapur Industries Association.
The partners will use the CSG grant to
assess the potential of selected landfill
methane-recovery sites to mitigate
greenhouse gas emissions.
Under USIJI, the regional Argen-
tinean government agency, Coordi-
nacion Ecologica Area Metropolitana
Sociedad del Estado (CEAMSE) and
U.S.-based Pacific Energy Systems,
Inc., have developed a landfill gas man-
agement project in Greater Buenos
Aires, where up to 5 million tons of
waste are deposited annually. Studies
initiated under the project estimate that
capturing and combusting 70 percent of
the gas generated from the waste in the
CEAMSE landfills could result in an
annual net emission reduction of 4 tera-
grams of CO2 equivalent. Further
reductions could be achieved as the gas
is used to displace combustion of more
carbon-intensive fossil fuels.34
Industry
Between 1997 and 2000, the United
States spent more than $19 million on
climate-friendly activities in the indus-
trial sector (see Appendix C).35 These
activities have improved industrial
energy efficiency, environmental man-
agement systems, process efficiency, and
waste-to-energy programs, particularly
in energy-intensive industries.
In Mexico, for example, USAID and
DOE have collaborated to develop
greenhouse gas emission benchmarks for
key industries, as well as energy-
efficiency initiatives in the public sector.
These efforts have demonstrated that
investments in resource management
systems are both technically and eco-
nomically sound, paying for themselves
through energy and other savings within
a few years. In the Philippines, USAID
supported the adoption of ISO 14000
certification, a voluntary system that
promotes environmental management
improvements in production practices at
a Ford Motor Company plant and
throughout its chain of 38 suppliers. In
Chennai, India, USAID worked with a
starch manufacturing company in the
Salem District of Tamil Nadu to recover
methane emissions from its tapioca-pro-
cessing effluents. A USAID-commis-
sioned study found that the 800
manufacturing facilities of Salem pro-
duce enough methane to generate about
80 MW of power, compelling the local
chamber of commerce to implement a
demonstration project in 1998 with
USAID assistance to convert the recap-
tured methane for fuel use.
Other U.S. government facilitation
of climate-friendly industrial develop-
ment has involved the transfer of U.S.
equipment and technical expertise. In
1997, the U.S Trade and Development
Agency provided a $600,000 grant to
the Ukrainian Ministry of Coal to study
the feasibility of the production of
coalbed methane and utilization of
gases to generate electric power in the
Donetsk Basin. The U.S. firm Interna-
tional Coal Bed Methane Group (com-
posed of Black Warrior Methane and
E.L. Lassister) carried out the study.
U.S. exports to the project consisted of
drilling and completion equipment,
drilling rigs, service rigs, combustion
power turbines, logging and geophysi-
cal equipment, and engineering and
legal services. In 2000, the Department
of Commerce, through its International
Clean Energy Initiative, began promot-
ing the transfer of U.S.-developed
waste recovery technology to develop-
ing countries. A trade mission to China
involved the participation of the Asian
American Coal Company, which has
developed technology that captures
coalbed methane for conversion to
natural gas.36
Adaptation Activities
From 1997 to 2000, the United States
spent over $5 billion on climate change
vulnerability and adaptation activities.
These activities, funded mostly by com-
mercial sales and ODA, are presented in
Appendix C under the categories pro-
vided by the UNFCCC guidance: capac-
ity building, coastal zone management,
and other vulnerability assessments.
However, to more accurately represent
the numerous adaptation activities the
United States has supported that are rel-
evant to climate change, the following
subcategories were created under capac-
ity building: water supply, disaster pre-
paredness and response, and drought
and desertification. Under coastal zone
management, the following two cate-
gories were created: coastal resources
and coral reef protection.
Capacity Building
From 1997 to 2000, the United States
provided $4.9 billion in funding for cli-
mate change activities in the broad cate-
gory of capacity building. The major
sources of funding for capacity building
came from commercial sales for much of
the technology transferred in the "water
supply" subcategory, while ODA and
foundation grants funded disaster pre-
paredness and response programs and
droughts and desertification programs.
Water Supply. Between 1997 and 2000,
the United States spent approximately
$406.9 million in direct financing for
water supply programs primarily direct-
ed at the development and improvement
of water supply and wastewater treat-
ment infrastructure.37 Hard technologies
transferred through commercial sales
amounted to approximately $2.8 bil-
lion38 (Figure 7-6). Following are some
examples of this financial and technical
assistance.
34 USIJI Project Descriptions-CD.
35 A considerable number of industrial-sector activities have been included under "Energy," above.
36 ITA Web site.
37 IPCC Working Group II included water supply as a capacity-building category in IPCC 200 la, based on the integrated water resource management approaches identified for adapt-
ing to climate change impacts in the hydrology and water resources sector .
38 In selecting commercial sales relevant to the water supply sector, the United States limited its query to wastewater treatment equipment, an IPCC-determined supply-side option for
adapting to climate change impacts in the hydrology and water resources sector (IPCC 2001a, p. 220). Based on the methodology of a US—AEP study that examined U.S. environ-
mental exports (US—AEP/USAID 2000), the United States chose to include sales of the following types of commodities: (1) mats, matting, and screens of vegetable plaiting mate-
rials,- (2) rotary positive displacement pumps,- (3) centrifugal pumps,- (4) filtering or purifying machinery and apparatus for water,- (5) filtering or purifying machinery and apparatus
for liquids,- and (6) machines for mixing, kneading, crushing, grinding, etc.
-------
132 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
FIGORE7-G Financial Flows by Adaptation Sector and
Financial Flow Type: 1997-2000
From 1997 to 2000, the United States spent over $5 billion on climate change vulnerability and
adaptation activities. These activities were funded primarily by commercial sales and official
development assistance/official assistance (ODA/OA).
1,000
In mid-1998, USAID provided emer-
gency assistance to the Zai Water
Treatment Plant in Jordan, which is the
source of drinking water for 40 percent
of Amman's population. In coordination
with Japan and Germany, USAID has
funded efforts to expand and upgrade
the plant to reduce the likelihood of
future water crises, and is funding the
rehabilitation of 17 contaminated
springs and wells. In Egypt, USAID is
continuing work on the rehabilitation
and expansion of the southern portion
of Cairo's Rod El Farag water treatment
plant, a $97.4-million project. As a
result of this work, four million Cairo
residents now benefit from a more reli-
able and safer water supply service.
In 1997, the U.S. Trade and Devel-
opment Agency (TDA) provided
$168,500 to FMI International to con-
duct a feasibility study for the develop-
ment of a wastewater treatment plant in
northeastern Estonia. In another exam-
ple, at the request of the Royal Thai
government, TDA provided $40,000
for an orientation visit for 16 Thai offi-
cials interested in U.S. flood control
technology in 1997. That same year,
TDA also granted $367,000 for a feasi-
bility study on water-loss reduction for
the city of Curitiba in Parana, Brazil.
Disaster Preparedness and Response.
Between 1997 and 2000, the United
States spent $1.7 billion on climate-
related disaster preparedness, mitiga-
tion, and relief (see Appendix C). The
United States recognizes that preven-
tion, reduction, and preparedness are
important factors in reducing the large-
scale devastation that disasters can have
on vulnerable populations. As a result,
the United States has provided exten-
sive assistance for recovery from natural
disasters around the world.
Seven weather disasters. In May 1999, the
U.S. Congress appropriated $621 mil-
lion under the Emergency Supple-
mental Appropriations Act, primarily to
support the reconstruction of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, which
were devastated in late 1998 by
Hurricane Georges. This funding also
assisted Central America's recovery
from Hurricane Mitch, which struck on
the scale of a storm seen only once in
100-200 years. These funds were later
extended for reconstruction in the
Bahamas and the Caribbean, which
were struck by Hurricanes Floyd and
Lenny in 1999.
After surveying the extensive dam-
age caused by Hurricane Mitch, the
United States announced the $11 mil-
lion Central American Mitigation Ini-
tiative. This project aims to reduce the
impacts of natural disasters by building
national capacity in Central American
countries to forecast, monitor, and pre-
vent those disasters. In the wake of
Hurricane Mitch, the United States ini-
tiated a multi-agency effort to
strengthen worldwide climate-related
disaster preparedness and mitigation,
with particular emphasis on Mexico and
Central America.
In a joint effort, a group of U.S.
government agencies39 implemented a
variety of disaster preparedness and
relief programs for hurricane-related
impacts throughout Latin America.
These programs have included, for
example, the development of more
39 USAID, NOAA, USDA, USGS, EPA, Federal Emer-
gency Management Agency (FEMA), the Department
of the Interior (DOI), Department of Health and
Human Services (HHS), Department of Transporta-
tion (DOT), Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD), the Peace Corps,
Export—Import Bank (Ex—Im Bank), Overseas Private
Investment Corporation (OPIC), Department of
State, and the General Accounting Office (GAO).
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 133
resilient infrastructure, climate forecast-
ing and warning systems, and various
forms of humanitarian aid. USAID
helped establish a training and techni-
cal assistance program to develop adap-
tation plans for extreme climatic events
in the region, supported watershed
rehabilitation through a transnational
watershed program, and helped install
stream gauges and early-warning sys-
tems in Honduras.
To continue addressing connected
disaster risks in the Caribbean region,
USAID recently initiated the
Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project.
Implemented by the Organization of
American States' Unit of Sustainable
Development and Environment, this
$5-million, six-year project promotes
the adoption of natural disaster pre-
paredness and loss-reduction practices
by both the public and the private sec-
tors through regional, national, and
local activities. These activities target
six major themes: (1) community-based
preparedness, (2) hazard assessment
and mapping, (3) hazard-resistant
building practices, (4) vulnerability and
risk audits for lifeline facilities, (5) pro-
motion of hazard mitigation within the
property insurance industry, and (6)
incorporation of hazard mitigation into
post-disaster recovery. To date, pilot
projects have been implemented in 11
Caribbean countries.
Similarly, the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA) has a
long history of interaction with foreign
governments to help them more effec-
tively respond to and prevent disasters,
including expert exchanges and "train-
the-trainer" courses. FEMA recently
established pilot projects for building
disaster-resistant communities with
Argentina, the Dominican Republic, El
Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
and Nicaragua and expanded civil
emergency planning work through
NATO partners to include East Euro-
pean nations.
Watershed management. In continued
efforts to reduce severe weather risks in
Central America, USAID has under-
taken activities in the transboundary
Rio Lempa watershed, shared by
Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.
The adaptation strategy for the Rio
Lempa has focused on three compo-
nents: the National Weather Service
River Forecast Center,40 capacity build-
ing on the operation and maintenance
of the forecast system, and the develop-
ment of a geographic information sys-
tem and watershed disaster mitigation
plan to mitigate the impacts of extreme
events. The watershed disaster mitiga-
tion plan includes identification of vul-
nerable populations, flood-prone areas,
areas at risk of landslides, the location
of shelters, and road networks for deliv-
ery of supplies. The program facilitated
a tri-national agreement to mitigate the
impacts of transnational disasters in the
Lempa Watershed, with the goal of
exporting the lessons learned from the
Rio Lempa to other transnational water-
sheds in the region.
Flood prepandwss and response. The United
States has also provided flood pre-
paredness and response support to
developing countries around the world,
both in terms of disaster relief and in
planning and mitigating future risks.
Among the many catastrophic floods
that occurred between 1997 and 2000,
the United States has helped victims
and communities in over a dozen devel-
oping countries around the world.
In 1999, USAID's Office of Foreign
Disaster Assistance (OFDA) announced
$3 million in funding to assist relief
efforts related to massive flooding,
landslides, and mudslides in Venezuela,
which killed an unknown number of
people and displaced many more. The
same year, the U.S. Geological Survey
provided follow-on disaster planning
assistance to produce hazard maps for
future response to and recovery from
disastrous flood and landslides in
Venezuela. In addition, USAID funded
the provision of emergency relief sup-
plies to flood victims in Mozambique,
South Africa, and Zimbabwe in
response to severe flooding in southern
Africa in 1999.
In 1998, OFDA provided funds for
emergency housing, clothing, mosquito
nets, and cooking utensils to Vietnam
after heavy rains and severe flooding
devastated the country. To minimize
future flood risks, in 2000, USAID
started supporting efforts to map flood
plains and determine where people
should avoid building their homes in
the future. These efforts included locat-
ing emergency shelters and determin-
ing evacuation routes to be used during
future flooding.
In 1998, floods struck Kinshasa,
Democratic Republic of the Congo,
affecting an estimated 100,000 people.
After the emergency, OFDA designed a
project to reduce the population's vul-
nerability to future floods. With OFDA
funding, Catholic Relief Services built
17 small check-dams from locally avail-
able materials, cleaned drainage canals,
and reseeded degraded watershed areas
to improve soil and moisture retention.
When torrential rains again struck Kin-
shasa in February 1999, there were no
injuries, no displaced residents, and no
damaged homes in the project area.
This successful project enabled the res-
idents of Kinshasa—where monthly
household incomes are less than $70—
to avoid a repeat of the $7.7 million in
economic losses they suffered in 1998.
Climate forecasting and research. Climate,
meteorological, and hydrological fore-
casting has played an increasingly
important role in warning developing
country populations of pending severe
storm risks, as well as better informing
them of long-term disaster mitigation
and response efforts. Under NOAAs
National Weather Service, the United
States has regularly provided develop-
ing countries with meteorological and
hydrological forecasts and prediction
models,- floods, droughts, and river flow
predictions,- tropical cyclone/hurricane
forecasts for the Western Hemisphere,-
global aviation hazardous weather fore-
casts,- high-sea forecasts for the North
Atlantic and North Pacific,- and meteor-
ological training programs for countries
throughout Central America, the
40 The NWSRFS was developed by NOAA and is being
implemented by NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey,
and the System for Central American Integration.
-------
134 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Caribbean, and Africa. NOAA also pro-
vides research and response activities
to prepare for severe impacts expected
from extremes of climate variability,
climate forecast research and applica-
tions, predictions related to El Nino phe-
nomena, support for a scientific network,
and capacity building in Africa, Latin
America and Caribbean, South-east Asia,
and the South Pacific. During the disas-
trous flooding in Mozambique in March
and April of 2000, for example, NOAA
provided real-time weather forecasts to
the affected regions as well as to interna-
tional response and relief agencies.
In cooperation with 26 countries,
NASA implemented the Pacific Rim II
airborne campaign in the southern and
western portions of the Pacific Rim
region. The campaign resulted in the
deployment of research aircraft and
remote-sensing instrumentation for col-
lecting data that will enable scientists to
better assess local environmental condi-
tions and natural hazards to enhance dis-
aster management and mitigation
practices in Pacific Rim countries. Simi-
larly, NOAA has implemented the Pan
American Climate Studies Sounding
Network (PACS SONET) for extended
monitoring of climate variability over
the Americas. This project enhances
understanding of low-level atmospheric
circulation features within monsoonal
North and South America, provides a
means of validating numerical model
simulations, and establishes a long-term,
upper-air observing system for climate
prediction and research.
In another climate-hydrological
forecasting effort, USAID and NOAA
have cooperated to provide snow-
monitoring and river-forecasting assis-
tance to Central Asian Hydrometeoro-
logical Services, known as Glavcjidromets.
This effort will download imagery over
Central Asia from NOAAs polar-orbit-
ing satellites. The imagery will be used
by the Glavgidromets to monitor the
extent of the snowpack in the
Himalayan Mountains, which is the
source of most of the water that flows
through the Amu Darya and Syr Darya
rivers.
Numerous partners, including USAID
and NOAA, created the Radio and Inter-
net Technology for Communication of
Hydro-Meteorological and Climate
Related Information (RANET) program.
The program consists of information
and applications networks in southern
Africa, the Greater Horn of Africa, and
West Africa. These networks provide
regular seasonal climate forecast infor-
mation and work directly with users to
reduce climate-related vulnerability.
RANET will make information, trans-
lated into appropriate local languages,
directly available to farm-level users
through wind-up radio.
Droughts and Desertification. From
1997 to 2000, the United States spent
approximately $51.8 million on activi-
ties that address droughts and desertifi-
cation (see Appendix C). These
activities are often implemented in con-
nection with the U.S. government's for-
eign disaster response programs,
although a number of long-term adapta-
tion initiatives have also been supported.
They include weather forecasting,
drought prediction, hazard mapping,
and research, technical assistance, and
capacity building. Through NOAA, for
example, the U.S. government has pro-
vided vegetation stress and drought pre-
diction information to China, Georgia,
Kazakhstan, Morocco, and Poland, and
technical assistance to China and
Tajikistan for estimating drought intensi-
ty and duration.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture,
the U.S. Geological Survey, the GEF,
and the government of Kazakhstan have
begun implementing the pilot phase of
the Kazakhstan Dryland Management
Project. The project's objective is to con-
serve, rehabilitate, and sustainably use
natural resources in the marginal cereal-
growing area of the Shetsky Raion of
northern Karaganda Oblast, Kaza-
khstan. This project works with commu-
nities and the Kazakh government to (1)
develop alternative land uses and reha-
bilitate ecosystems for conservation of
plant and animal bio-diversity,- (2)
develop a coherent framework and
national capacity to monitor carbon
sequestration,- and (3) build public
capacity and develop a replication
strategy so that project activities can be
adopted in other similar areas of
Kazakhstan and other Central Asian
countries.
In the drought-prone Bie province of
Angola, USAID has funded Africare, a
private voluntary organization, to dis-
tribute 339 metric tons of seeds and
55,000 farming tools to 27,500 inter-
nally displaced people. In 2000 in
Afghanistan, USAID/OFDA provided
immediate drought relief measures
through Save the Children to engage in
drought-related activities, with a focus
on maternal and child care.
The United States provides much
support for food security through for-
eign agriculture programs and climate
monitoring systems. For example, the
Famine Early Warning System (FEWS)
was started in 1985 and is funded at
approximately $6 million a year to pro-
vide decision makers with the informa-
tion they need to effectively respond to
drought and food insecurity. Working in
17 drought-prone countries across Sub-
Saharan Africa, FEWS analyzes remote-
sensing data and ground-based
meteorological, crop, and rangeland
observations by field staff to track the
progress of the rainy seasons in semi-arid
regions of Africa and to identify early
indications of potential famine. Other
factors affecting local food availability
and access are also carefully evaluated to
identify vulnerable population groups
requiring assistance. These assessments
are continuously updated and dissemi-
nated to provide host-country govern-
ments and other decision makers with
the most timely and accurate informa-
tion available. Overall, FEWS activities
strengthen the capacities of public and
private institutions to monitor and
respond to drought, the principal impact
of climate variability in Sahelian Africa.
By helping to anticipate potential famine
conditions and lessen vulnerability,
FEWS has helped save lives, while also
promoting a more efficient use of limited
financial resources.
USDA provides a number of addi-
tional food security activities around
the world, including:
-------
Financial Resources and Transfer of Technology i 135
« the West Africa Regional Food Secu-
rity Project, which provides informa-
tion on vulnerable populations, food
balances, food needs, food aid, and
commercial import requirements,-
« development of agricultural and nat-
ural hazard profiles for selected
African countries to assist in mitiga-
tion, response, and rehabilitation,-
« direct food aid in response to
drought-related famine in Ethiopia
and the Horn of Africa,-
« disaster management and logistics
support for African desert locust
response,- and
• collaboration with Central American
countries to develop strategies to
overcome soil erosion, manage water
quality, and resolve food safety prob-
lems resulting from Hurricanes
Mitch and Georges.
Coastal Zone Management
From 1997 to 2000, the United
States provided about $52 million in
ODA and foundation grants for climate
change adaptation activities supporting
coastal zone management. These activ-
ities included efforts to address coastal
resources, sea level rise, severe weather
and storm surges, risks to ecosystems
(such as rising seawater temperatures),
and protection of coral reefs.
Coastal Resources. Adaptation activi-
ties addressing coastal resources fall
under the broad categories of integrated
coastal management (ICM),- coastal
zone management and planning,- con-
servation of critical coastal habitats and
ecosystems (such as coral reefs,
mangrove forests, and sand dunes) to
maintain vital ecosystem functions,- pro-
tection of coastal areas from storm
surge and sea level rise,- reduction of
coastal erosion to limit future displace-
ments of settlements and industries,-
development of guidelines for best
coastal development practices and
resource use,- and the dissemination of
best practices for coastal planning and
capacity building. The United States
financed $38.3 million in coastal
resources activities between 1997 and
2000 (Figure 7-5).
The United States has implemented
a number of ICM programs in several
countries around the world. In 1985,
USAID initiated the Coastal Resources
Management program and again
renewed this program in 2000 as part of
a new $32-million commitment for
coastal zone management programs
worldwide. The CRM project is now
funded at approximately $6 million a
year and has operated in Mexico,
Ecuador, Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, El Salvador, Kenya, Tanzania,
Egypt, Thailand, Indonesia, and the
Philippines. CRM projects largely
promote improved governance, public
participation, and stewardship toward
the management of multi-sectoral
activities within the coastal zone and
surrounding watershed—helping to
address a variety of climate-related
threats to coastal and marine biodiver-
sity and resource-dependent communi-
ties (USAID 2001b).
In addition to providing extensive
technical assistance and research
addressing coastal zone management
needs, USAID's Coastal Resources
Management program has helped gen-
erate a number of significant practical
tools, such as coastal maps, program
performance management guidelines,
community coastal zone management
strategies, national ICM policies, and
best management guidelines in such
areas as aquaculture, mariculture, and
tourism development. The program has
also promoted outreach mechanisms
about best practices through reports,
publications, journals, CD-ROMs,
e-mail list servers, Web sites, and train-
ing and communications publications.
Coral Reefs and Other Marine
Resources. Between 1997 and 2000,
the United States supported the protec-
tion of coral reefs and other marine
resources through the creation of
marine sanctuaries, the introduction of
sustainable fishing practices and coastal
zone management, and research on
coral reef habitats and climate risks in
the amount of $13.7 million (see
Appendix C). For example, community-
based marine sanctuaries in the
Philippines and South Pacific have
proven to be effective in conserving
coral reef ecosystems, as well as increas-
ing fish biomass and production. Efforts
have been underway to reproduce these
successful conservation areas in
Indonesia under USAID's ICM project
in North Sulawesi. These community-
based marine sanctuaries are small areas
of subtidal marine environment, primari-
ly coral reef habitat, where all extractive
and destructive activities are permanent-
ly prohibited. They were developed
with the widespread support and partic-
ipation of the local community and gov-
ernment, were established by formal
village ordinance, and are managed by
community groups.
USAID has implemented a number
of programs involving site preservation
for marine-protected areas. For instance,
it provided support for the implementa-
tion of a new Galapagos Special Law to
establish a marine park and has begun
funding a Bering Sea Marine Ecoregion
Conservation program.
In related efforts, the MacArthur
Foundation provided $105,000 between
1998 and 2000 to establish a coral reef
monitoring program with the Hong
Kong University of Science and Tech-
nology. This project will provide impor-
tant information to international
conservation efforts about the health of
coral reefs and risks to their survival.
Other Vulnerability Assessments
U.S. funding between 1997 and 2000
on vulnerability assessments and studies
associated with adaptation to the
impacts of climate change amounted to
approximately $10.2 million (see
Appendix C). Much of this funding
went toward the U.S. Country Studies
Program (CSP) to help developing
countries assess their unique vulnerabili-
ties to long- and short-term climate
impacts, their adaptation options for
addressing those risks, and their contri-
butions to global greenhouse gas emis-
sions. Since its inception, the CSP has
helped 56 countries build the human
and institutional capacities necessary to
assess their vulnerability to climate
change.
-------
136 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
NOAA has focused on reducing the
vulnerability of coastal populations to
hazardous weather. Since 1997, it has
developed a community-based vulnera-
bility assessment methodology to aid
local hazard mitigation planning and
has begun working with the Organiza-
tion of American States to provide train-
ing on vulnerability assessment to
Caribbean countries.
Other Global Climate
Change Activities
To account for those activities that
did not easily fit within the mitigation
and adaptation categories provided by
the guidance for Appendix C of this
chapter, two additional categories were
created: UNFCCC participation and
crosscutting activities. Both categories
are relevant to implementation of the
UNFCCC. Between 1997 and 2000, the
United States spent approximately
$323.8 million on "other global climate
change activities."
UNFCCC Participation
The United States spent approxi-
mately $25.4 million between 1997 and
2000 to promote meaningful participa-
tion in the UNFCCC process by devel-
oping and transition economies (see
Appendix C). USAID alone imple-
mented over 70 capacity-building
activities designed to strengthen partic-
ipation in the Convention in 1999. This
included promoting efforts to integrate
climate change into national develop-
ment strategies,- establishing emission
inventories,- developing national cli-
mate change action plans,- promoting
procedures for receiving, evaluating,
and approving joint implementation
proposals,- and establishing baselines
for linking greenhouse gas emissions to
economic growth.
For example, through its Climate
Change Center in Ukraine, established
in 1999, USAID provided support to
the Ukrainian government to establish
national administrative structures,
develop a national climate change
inventory program, and prepare invest-
ment projects. USAID assistance in
Mexico supported the national govern-
ment's establishment of an Interagency
Commission on Global Climate
Change. In connection with those
efforts, the Mexican Congress consid-
ered a global climate change bill outlin-
ing how Mexico could integrate
climate change considerations into
national strategic, energy, and sustain-
able development goals.
Crosscutting Activities
The United States spent over $298.4
million on crosscutting climate change
activities in developing and transition
economies from 1997 to 2000 (Figure
7-5). Many of these activities have
simultaneously addressed climate
change mitigation and/or adaptation
issues. For example, the Rockefeller
Foundation awarded the Pacific Envi-
ronment and Resources Center a
$300,000 grant in 2000 to address
threats to critical marine and forest
ecosystems in the Russian Far East.
Similarly, many USAID activities con-
tributed to mitigation of, and adapta-
tion to, climate change.
-------
Chapter 8
Research and
Systematic
Observation
The United States leads the world in
research on climate and other global
environmental changes, spending
approximately $1.7 billion annually on
its focused climate change research pro-
grams. This contribution is roughly half
of the world's focused climate change
research expenditures, three times more
than the next largest contributor, and
larger than the combined contributions
of Japan and all 15 nations of the Euro-
pean Union (Figure 8-1).
Most of this research is coordinated
through the U.S. Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP). Defini-
tion of the program began in the late
1980s, and Congress codified the pro-
gram in the Global Change Research
Act of 1990. The USGCRP was created
as a high-priority, national research pro-
gram tO:
address key uncertainties about
changes in the Earth's global envi-
ronment, both natural and human-
induced,-
-------
138 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
FIGURE o-i Research Expenditures by Country: 1999-2000
The United States is responsible for roughly half of the world's focused climate change
research expenditures—three times more than the next-largest contributor, and largerthan
the contributions of Japan and all 15 nations of the European Union combined.
1,000
Scientific Studies/Experiments
Observations/Data Management
Note: Contributions by the United Kingdom and Germany to the European Space Agency (ESA) are included in the ESA
observations total. No data are included from Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Italy, Korea, Mexico, the People's
Republic of China, Poland, Russia, Spain, Taiwan, and the Nordic Council. Inclusion of these could raise the totals
by 10-20 percent.
Source: IGFA 2000.
• monitor, understand, and predict
global change,- and
• provide a sound scientific basis for
national and international decision
making.
The program builds on research
undertaken over previous decades by
independent researchers and programs.
Today the USGCRP facilitates coordi-
nation across eleven federal depart-
ments and agencies with active global
change programs. This distributed
structure enables the program to draw
on the missions, resources, and expert-
ise of both research and mission-
oriented agencies as it works to reduce
uncertainties and develop useful appli-
cations of global change research. Par-
ticipants include the Departments of
Agriculture, Commerce (National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
tion), Defense, Energy, Health and
Human Services (National Institutes of
Health), Interior (U.S. Geological Sur-
vey), and Transportation,- the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,- the
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration,- the National Science
Foundation,- and the Smithsonian Insti-
tution. The Office of Science and Tech-
nology Policy and the Office of
Management and Budget provide over-
sight on behalf of the Executive Office
of the President.
Despite the intensive U.S. invest-
ment in climate change science over the
past decade, numerous gaps remain in
our understanding. President Bush
directed a Cabinet-level review of cli-
mate policy, including the state of sci-
ence. As an input to this review, the U.S.
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
prepared a report on Climate Change Sci-
ence-. An Analysis of Some Key Questions
(NRC 200la). This report was released
in June 2001 and reached a number of
findings regarding uncertainties and
gaps in our knowledge that impede
policymaking.' The report states:
Because there is considerable uncertainty
in current understanding of how the cli-
mate system varies naturally and reacts
to emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, current estimates of the magni-
tude of future warming should be
regarded as tentative and subject to future
adjustments (either upward or down-
ward). Reducing the wide range of
uncertainty inherent in current model pre-
dictions of global climate change will
require major advances in understanding
and modeling of both (4) the factors that
determine atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases and aerosols, and (2)
the so-called "feedbacks" that determine
the sensitivity of the climate system to a
prescribed increase in greenhouse gases.
There is also a pressing need for a global
system designed for monitoring climate.
With respect to specific areas of
knowledge, the NAS report concluded
that greenhouse gases are accumulating
in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of
human activities, causing surface air
temperatures and subsurface ocean
temperatures to rise (see Appendix D).
The changes observed over the last sev-
eral decades are likely to result mostly
from human activities, but some signif-
icant part of these changes is also a
reflection of natural variability. Human-
induced warming and associated sea
level rise are expected to continue
through the 21st century. Computer
model simulations and basic physical
reasoning suggest secondary effects,
including potential changes in rainfall
rates and in the susceptibility of semi-
arid regions to drought. The impacts of
1 The National Academy of Science report (NRC 200 la) generally agreed with the assessment of human-caused climate change presented in the recent 1PCC Working Group 1 sci-
entific report (1PCC 200 Id), but sought to articulate more clearly the level of confidence that can be ascribed to those assessments and the caveats that need to be attached to them
Jsee Appendix D).
-------
Research and Systematic Observation i 139
these changes will be critically depend-
ent on the magnitude of the effect, the
rate at which it occurs, secular trends in
technology that affect society's adapt-
ability and vulnerability, and specific
measures taken to adapt to or reduce
vulnerability to climate change.
Accordingly, the NAS found that
reducing the wide range of uncertainty
inherent in current approaches to pro-
jecting global climate change and its
effects on human beings and ecosystems
will require major advances in under-
standing and modeling. To ensure that
policies are informed by the best sci-
ence, the United States is working
aggressively to advance the science of
climate and global change. In June
2001, President Bush announced the
U.S. Climate Change Research Initia-
tive, which is focused on reducing key
areas of uncertainty in climate change
science.
RESEARCH
U.S. research focuses on the full
range of global change issues. The U.S.
Congress, in the Global Change
Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-
606), directs the implementation of a
program aimed at "understanding and
responding to global change, including
cumulative effects of human activities
and natural processes on the environ-
ment." The Act defines global change
as "changes in the global environment
(including alterations in climate, land
productivity, oceans or other water
resources, atmospheric chemistry, and
ecological systems) that may alter the
capacity of the Earth to sustain life."
This perspective recognizes the pro-
found socioeconomic and ecological
implications of global environmental
change.
The USGCRP focuses on sets of
interacting changes in the coupled
human—environment system, which is
undergoing change at a pace unprece-
dented in human history. These
changes are occurring on many time
and spatial scales, and many feedbacks
and interdependencies link them.
These numerous and various forces
complicate efforts to understand the
interactions of human and natural sys-
tems and how they may affect the
capacity of the Earth to sustain life over
the long term. Indeed, the interactions
between changes in external (solar)
forcing, human activities, and the
intrinsic variability of the Earth's atmos-
phere, hydrosphere, and biosphere
make understanding and projecting
atmospheric and oceanic circulation,
global energy and water cycles, and
biogeochemical cycling among the
most demanding scientific challenges.
U.S. Climate Change
Research Initiative
On June 11, 2001, President Bush
announced the establishment of the
U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative
to study areas of uncertainty and identify
priority areas for investment in climate
change science. He directed the Secre-
tary of Commerce to work with other
agencies to set priorities for additional
investments in climate change research
and to fully fund high-priority research
areas that are underfunded or need to be
accelerated. The definition of this new
initiative is underway. It will improve the
integration of scientific knowledge,
including measures of uncertainty, into
effective decision support systems.
Ongoing Broader Agenda
for U.S. Research
The Climate Change Research Ini-
tiative will take place in the context of
the broader global change research
program that is ongoing in federal
agencies. The USGCRP provides a
framework and coordination mecha-
nism for the continuing study of all of
the complex, interrelated global change
aspects in the NAS recommendations
that are not addressed by the initiative.
The USGCRP is engaged in a con-
tinuing process to review its objectives
and structure so that it can help govern-
ment, the private sector, and communi-
ties to make informed management
decisions regarding global environmen-
tal changes in light of persistent uncer-
tainties. This will require the program
to continue fundamental research to
address crucial uncertainties about how
human activities are changing the
Earth's climate and environment. This
program will need to continue develop-
ing increasingly detailed projections of
how natural variability and human-
induced environmental change interact
and affect conditions on global to
regional scales, and how we can man-
age natural resources in the future. Sci-
entific understanding and data will need
to be applied to tools useful for reduc-
ing risks and seizing opportunities
resulting from global change.
The program will build on decades
of scientific progress and will take
advantage of the development of pow-
erful advances in computing, remote
sensing, environmental monitoring, and
data and information technologies.
Through additional focused investment
in observations, scientific studies, and
modeling, the USGCRP will seek to
reduce uncertainties in the understand-
ing of some of the most basic questions.
The science needed to accomplish this
ambitious objective is organized into
the six research elements presented in
Table 8-1, each of which focuses on
topics crucial to projecting change and
understanding its potential importance.
The USGCRP will also work with
its partners to transition scientific
knowledge to applications in resource
management, disaster preparedness,
planning for growth and infrastructure,
and environmental and health assess-
ment, among other areas. Partnerships
among research programs, operational
entities, and actors in the private sector
and in federal, state, and local govern-
ments will be essential for the success of
this effort. It will also require significant
levels of cooperation and new manage-
ment techniques to permit co-produc-
tion of knowledge and deliverables
across agencies and stakeholders.
National Climate Change
Technology Initiative
The United States is further commit-
ted to improving climate change tech-
nology research and development,
enhancing basic research, strengthen-
ing applied research through public-
private partnerships, developing
-------
140 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
TABLE o-i Fundamental Climate Change Research Needs
To support informed decision making, the U.S. Global Change Research Program is addressing uncertainties about how human activities are
changing the Earth's climate and environment. The six research elements in this table focus on topics essential to projecting climate change
and understanding its potential importance:
Research Uncertainty
USGCRP Research Focus
Atmospheric Composition
» How do human activities and natural
phenomena change the composition of
the global atmosphere?
» How do these changes influence climate,
ozone, ultraviolet radiation, pollutant expo-
sure, ecosystems, and human health?
Processes affecting the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer.
Properties and distribution of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
Long-range transport of pollutants and implications for air quality.
Integrated assessments of the effects of these changes for the nation and the world.
Climate Variability and Change
» How do changes in the Earth system that
result from natural processes and human
activities affect the climate elements that
are important to human and natural sys-
tems, especiallytemperature, precipitation,
clouds, winds, and extreme events?
Predictions of seasonal-to-decadal climate variations (e.g., the El Nino-Southern
Oscillation).
Detection and attribution of human-induced change.
Projections of long-term climate change.
Potential for changes in extreme events at regional-to-local scales.
Possibility of abrupt climate change.
How to improve the effectiveness of interactions between producers and users of
climate forecast information.
Carbon Cycle
» How large and variable are the reservoirs
and transfers of carbon within the Earth
system?
» How might carbon sources and sinks
change and be managed in the future?
North American and ocean carbon sources and sinks.
Impacts of land-use changes and resource management practices on carbon
sources and sinks.
Future atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations and changes in
land-based and marine carbon sinks.
Periodic reporting (starting in 2010) on the global distribution of carbon sources and
sinks and how they are changing.
Global Water Cycle
» How do human activities and natural process-
es that affect climate variability influence the
distribution and quality of water within the
Earth system?
» To what extent are these changes predictable?
» How will these changes affect climate, the
cycling of carbon and other nutrients, and
other environmental properties?
Trends in the intensity of the water cycle and the causes of these changes
(including feedback effects of clouds on the water and energy budgets, as well as
the global climate system).
Predictions of precipitation and evaporation on time scales of months to years and
longer.
Models of physical and biological processes and human demands and institutional
processes, to facilitate efficient management of water resources.
Research supporting reports on the state of the global water cycle and national
water resources.
Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems
« How do natural and human-induced
changes in the environment interact to
affect ecosystems (from natural to
intensively managed), their ability to provide
natural resources and commodities, and
their influence on regional and global
climate?
Structure and function of ecosystems, including cycling of nutrients and how they
interact with the carbon cycle.
Key processes that link ecosystems with climate.
Vulnerability of ecosystems to global change.
Options for enhancing resilience and sustaining ecosystem goods and services.
Scientific underpinning for improved interactions with resource managers.
Changes in Land Use and Land Cover
» What processes determine land cover and
land use at local, regional, and global scales?
» How will land use and land cover evolve
over time scales of 10-50 years?
Identifying the human drivers of changes in land use and cover.
Monitoring, measuring, and mapping land use and land cover and managing
data systems.
Developing projections of land-cover and land-use changes under various assumptions
about climate, demographic, economic, and technological trends.
Integrating information about land use, land management, and land cover into other
research elements.
-------
Research and Systematic Observation i 141
improved technologies for measuring
and monitoring gross and net green-
house gas emissions, and supporting
demonstration projects for new tech-
nologies.
Enhanced Carbon Technologies
The United States has committed to
a number of projects to develop
enhanced carbon technologies for cap-
turing, storing, and sequestering car-
bon. Two contracts signed on July 11,
2001, solidified partnerships with The
Nature Conservancy and with an inter-
national team of energy companies.
The Nature Conservancy Project. The
Department of Energy will work in
partnership with The Nature Conser-
vancy and such companies as General
Motors Corporation and American
Electric Power to study how carbon
dioxide can be stored more effectively
by changing land-use practices and by
investing in forestry projects. Using
newly developed aerial and satellite-
based technology, researchers will study
forestry projects in Brazil and Belize to
determine their carbon sequestration
potential. Researchers will also test new
software models that predict how carbon
is sequestered by soil and vegetation at
sites in the United States and abroad.
The United States will provide $1.7 mil-
lion of the $2 million cost of the three-
year project.
International Team of Energy Com-
panies. The Department of Energy will
also collaborate with nine energy com-
panies from four nations to develop
breakthrough technologies to reduce the
cost of capturing carbon dioxide from
fossil fuel combustion and safely storing
it underground. The nine energy compa-
nies are: BP—Amoco, Shell, Chevron,
Texaco, Pan Canadian (Canada), Suncor
Energy (Canada), ENI (Italy), Statoil
Forskningssenter (Norway), and Norsk
Hydro ASA (Norway). The U.S. gov-
ernment's contribution of $5 million will
leverage an international commitment
that will total more than $25 million
over the next three years, including
funding from the European Union,
Norway's Klimatek Program, and the
nine industry partners.
Human Effects on
and Responses to
Environmental Changes
In an effort to identify strategies to
enhance the resilience of human sys-
tems to climate change, the U.S. Global
Change Research Program continues to
support research both on human activi-
ties that influence environmental change
from local and regional to global scales
and on how human systems prepare for
and respond to environmental changes.
An expanding research area will focus on
analyses of the regional impacts of cli-
mate change on human systems and how
improved information about climate
change impacts can help decision makers
in the public and private sectors.
Recent Accomplishments
Following are some recent USGCRP
accomplishments in human dimensions
and socioeconomic analyses:
» The U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-
tration (NOAA) have established
ongoing regional research and assess-
ment projects in six U.S. regions to
study the effects of climate variability
and change on natural and human sys-
tems. These projects have been highly
successful in analyzing the regional
context of global change impacts, fos-
tering relationships between scientists
and stakeholders in the regions, and
determining how research can meet
stakeholders' needs for water-resource
planning, fisheries management,
ranching, and other climate-sensitive
resource management issues.
» The U.S. Department of Transporta-
tion (DOT) established a center to
identify effective ways to reduce the
transportation sector's emissions and
to help prepare the nation for the
impacts of climate change. As part of
its research efforts, the center will
investigate how climate change could
affect transportation infrastructure.
» Interdisciplinary investigations of
human responses to seasonal and
yearly swings in climate are high-
lighting the effects of market forces,
access to resources, institutional flex-
ibility, impacts across state bound-
aries, and the role of local culture and
experience on the likelihood that
individuals and institutions will use
improved scientific information.
International Research
Cooperation
The Working Group on International
Research and Cooperation provides
international affairs support for the
USGCRP. The working group has repre-
sentatives from interested government
agencies and departments and acts as a
forum to keep them informed on inter-
national global change research and
funding issues. It addresses interagency
support for international global change
research programs and coordination, and
infrastructure funding for such organiza-
tions as the Asia—Pacific Network for
Global Change Research, the Inter-
American Institute for Global Change
Research, the International Human
Dimensions Programme, the Interna-
tional Geosphere-Biosphere Programme,
the World Climate Research Pro-
gramme, and the Global Change System
for Analysis, Research, and Training.
The working group also addresses con-
cerns raised by international nongovern-
mental global change organizations,
such as free and open data exchange.
These organizations include the Interna-
tional Group of Funding Agencies for
Global Change Research and the Arctic
Ocean Sciences Board.
The USGCRP contributes to and
benefits from international research
efforts to improve understanding of cli-
mate change on regional and global
scales. USGCRP-supported scientists
coordinate many of their programs with
those of their counterparts in other
countries, providing essential inputs to
the increasingly complex models that
enable scientists to improve analysis and
prediction of climate change. Following
are some examples of recent, ongoing,
and planned climate change research
and related activities in which
USGCRP-supported scientists are
-------
142 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
heavily involved and for which interna-
tional cooperation, participation, and
support are especially important.
U.S.-Japan Cooperation in
Global Change Research
During 2000, the United States and
Japan co-sponsored a series of scientific
workshops to identify important cli-
mate change research problems of
mutual interest and to recommend how
scientists from the two countries might
constructively address them. Con-
ducted under the auspices of the
U.S.-Japan Agreement on Cooperation
in Research and Development in Sci-
ence and Technology, these workshops
are managed on the U.S. side by
the Working Group on International
Research and Cooperation of the fed-
eral interagency Subcommittee on
Global Change
The workshops developed recom-
mendations to study the health impacts
of climate change, in particular the
impacts of greater and longer-lasting
exposures to higher temperatures inter-
acting with different air pollutants. A
workshop on monsoon systems identi-
fied a number of cooperative bilateral
and multilateral activities for the two
countries to undertake. In 2001, Japan
hosted the ninth workshop in this
series, entitled Carbon Cycle Manage-
ment in Terrestrial Ecosystems. The
workshops have stimulated cooperation
between Japanese and U.S. scientists
and have led to numerous follow-up
activities, including more focused plan-
ning workshops, data exchanges, and
collaborative projects.
Climate and Societal Interactions
NOAAs Climate and Societal Inter-
actions Program supports Regional Cli-
mate Outlook Fora, pilot application
projects, workshops, training sessions,
capacity building, and technical assis-
tance for better understanding of cli-
mate variability and extreme events and
for improving prediction and forecast-
ing capability and data management, in
Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean,
Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. The
Climate Information Project is develop-
ing a new program—Radio and Internet
for the Communication of Hydro-Mete-
orological and Climate Information—to
provide training to meteorological serv-
ices worldwide on the use and produc-
tion of radio and multimedia content in
conjunction with digital satellite com-
munication. This effort is being led by
NOAA and involves a number of inter-
national partners, including the U.S.
Agency for International Development,-
the World Bank,- the World Meteorolog-
ical Organization,- the Inter-American
Institute for Global Change Research,-
the Global Change System for
Analysis, Research, and Training,- and
the Asia—Pacific Network for Global
Change Research.
Eastern Pacific Investigation
of Climate Processes
The Department of Commerce,
through NOAA, and the National Sci-
ence Foundation are bringing together
more than 100 scientists from the
United States, Mexico, Chile, and Peru
to cooperate in the Eastern Pacific
Investigation of Climate (EPIC). EPIC's
scientific objectives are to observe
and understand: (1) ocean-atmosphere
processes in the equatorial and north-
eastern Pacific portions of the Inter-
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),-
and (2) the properties of cloud decks in
the trade wind and cross-equatorial
flow regime and their interactions with
the ocean below.
The project will study stratus cloud
decks located off the west coast of
South America, a region of cool sea-
surface temperatures located along the
equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean,
and a region of intense precipitation
located in the eastern Pacific north of
the equator. All three of these phenom-
ena interact to control the climate of
the Southwest United States and Cen-
tral and South America.
Studies of Global Ocean Ecosystem
(GLOBEC) Dynamics
Scientists and research vessels from
Germany, the United Kingdom, and
the United States are conducting a
closely coordinated major GLOBEC
field study on krill near the West
Antarctic Peninsula. Krill are an essen-
tial component of the Southern Ocean
food web and a commercially important
species. Their predators—including sea
birds, seals, and whales—depend on
this food resource for survival. Sea ice
plays an essential role as a habitat for
krill (which feed beneath the ice) and
their predators. Since evidence suggests
that interannual variation in the extent
of sea ice affects the abundance of krill,
improving understanding of the role of
climate factors affecting sea ice will
comprise a critical component of the
Southern Ocean GLOBEC program.
IGBP Open Science Conference
The International Geosphere—
Biosphere Programme (IGBP) convened
an open science conference in July
2001 in Amsterdam. A major objective
of this conference was to present the
latest results of climate change research
at a series of levels: research conducted
through the individual IGBP core proj-
ects and research integrated across
these projects,- research that has been
integrated between the IGBP and the
World Climate Research Programme,
the International Human Dimensions
Programme, Diversitas, and the Global
Change System for Analysis, Research
and Training, and other regional pro-
grams,- and individual research projects
on which these integrated efforts are
based. The conference also identified
new approaches to the study of the
complex planetary system in which
human activities are closely linked to
natural processes.
International Group of
Funding Agencies
The International Group of Funding
Agencies (IGFA) is a forum through
which national agencies that fund
research on global change identify issues
of mutual interest and ways to address
them through coordinated national and,
when appropriate, international actions.
IGFAs focus is not on the funding of sin-
gle projects, which is still a matter of
national procedures,- instead, it coordi-
nates the support for the programs
-------
Research and Systematic Observation i 143
The USGCRP, six federal agencies, and the Electric Power Research Institute sponsored a
study completed in 2001 by the U.S. National Research Council's Committee on Climate,
Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and Human Health, entitled Under the Weather: Climate,
Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease WKC200]b). Following a re the Committee's key findings
related to linkages between climate and infectious diseases.
Weather fluctuations and seasonal-to-interannual climate variability influence many infec-
tious diseases. The characteristic geographic distributions and seasonal variations of many
infectious diseases are prima facie evidence of linkages to weather and climate. Studies
have shown that such factors as temperature, precipitation, and humidity affect the life
cycles of many disease pathogens and vectors (both directly, and indirectly through ecolog-
ical changes) and thus can affect the timing and intensity of disease outbreaks. However,
disease incidence is also affected by such factors as sanitation and public health services,
population density and demographics, land-use changes, and travel patterns. The impor-
tance of climate relative to these other variables must be evaluated in the context of each
situation.
Observational and modeling studies must be interpreted cautiously. Although numerous
studies have shown an association between climatic variations and disease incidence, they
are not able to fully account for the complex web of causation that underlies disease dynam-
ics. Thus, they may not be reliable indicators of future changes. Likewise, a variety of mod-
els have been developed to simulate the effects of climatic changes on the incidence of such
diseases as malaria, dengue, and cholera. While these models are useful heuristic tools for
testing hypotheses and carrying out sensitivity analyses, they are not necessarily intended
to serve as predictive tools, and often do not include such processes as physical/biological
feedbacks and human adaptation. Thus, caution must be exercised in using these models to
create scenarios of future disease incidence and to provide a basis for early warnings and
policy decisions.
The potential disease impacts of global climate change remain highly uncertain. Changes
in regional climate patterns caused by long-term global warming could affect the potential
geographic range of many infectious diseases. However, if the climate of some regions
becomes more suitable for transmission of disease agents, human behavioral adaptations
and public health interventions could serve to mitigate many adverse impacts. Basic public
health protections, such as adequate housing and sanitation, as well as new vaccines and
drugs, may limit the future distribution and impact of some infectious diseases, regardless of
climate-associated changes. These protections, however, depend upon maintaining strong
public health programs and ensuring vaccine and drug access in the poorer countries of the
world.
Climate change may affect the evolution and emergence of infectious diseases. The poten-
tial impacts of climate change on the evolution and emergence of infectious disease agents
create another important but highly uncertain risk. Ecosystem instabilities brought about by
climate change and concurrent stresses, such as land-use changes, species dislocation,
and increasing global travel, potentially influence the genetics of pathogenic microbes
through mutation and horizontal gene transfer, and could give rise to new interactions among
hosts and disease agents.
There are potential pitfalls in extrapolating climate and disease relationships from one
spatial/temporal scale to another. The relationships between climate and infectious disease
are often highly dependent upon local-scale parameters, and it is not always possible to
extrapolate these relationships meaningfully to broader spatial scales. Likewise, disease
impacts of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability may not always provide a useful ana-
log for the impacts of long-term climate change. Ecological responses on the time scale of
an El Nino event, for example, may be significantly different from the ecological responses
and social adaptation expected under long-term climate change. Also, long-term climate
change may influence regional climate variability patterns, hence limiting the predictive
power of current observations.
Recent technological advances will aid efforts to improve modeling of infectious disease
epidemiology. Rapid advances being made in several disparate scientific disciplines may
spawn radically new techniques for modeling infectious disease epidemiology. These
include advances in sequencing of microbial genes, satellite-based remote sensing of
ecological conditions, the development of geographic information system (GIS) analytical
techniques, and increases in inexpensive computational power. Such techniques will
make it possible to analyze the evolution and distribution of microbes and their relationship
to different ecological niches, and may dramatically improve our abilities to quantify the
disease impacts of climatic and ecological changes.
themselves (Secretariats, International
Project Offices, etc.). IGFA facilitates
international climate change research by
bringing the perspective of national
funding agencies to strategic research
planning and implementation. At its
October 2000 meeting, most IGFA
member nations reported increases in
funding for climate change research, ini-
tiation and deployment of new national
programs, and establishment of some
new research centers.
Diversitas
Diversitas was established in 1991 as
an umbrella program to coordinate a
broad research effort in the biodiversity
sciences at the global level. The program
has played an important role at the inter-
face between science and policy by
building a partnership with the Conven-
tion on Biological Diversity. Diversitas
has signed a Memorandum of Under-
standing with the Secretariat of the Con-
vention and has provided input to its
Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical
and Technological Advice. Among the
issues that IGFA considered at its 2001
plenary meeting in Stockholm was the
development of a new implementation
strategy for Diversitas. Countries, via
IGFA, have committed funds to help
strengthen the international infrastruc-
ture for biodiversity research through
Diversitas according to the model of the
other partner global change programs.
International
Paleoclimate Research
An international team of researchers
from the United States, Germany, and
Russia is investigating El'gygytgyn Lake
in northeastern Siberia, just north of the
Arctic Circle. This crater was formed 3.6
million years ago by a meteorite impact.
Its sediments hold the promise of reveal-
ing the evolution of Arctic climate a full
one million years before the first major
glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition, through an international
consortium of researchers, the Nyanza
Project team, involving scientists from
the United States, Europe, and four
countries in Africa, is studying climate
variability, as well as environmental and
-------
144 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
ecological change, through the entire
episode of human evolution. As part of
this project, a unique 2,000-year-old
annually resolved record of atmos-
pheric circulation and dynamics, reveal-
ing El Nino—Southern Oscillation and
solar cycles, has been recovered from
sediments in Lake Tanganyika, the sec-
ond deepest lake on the planet.
SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION
Long-term, high-quality observa-
tions of the global environmental sys-
tem are essential for defining the
current state of the Earth's system, and
its history and variability. This task
requires both space- and surface-based
observation systems. The term "climate
observations" can encompass a broad
range of environmental observations,
including:
» routine weather observations,
which, collected over a long enough
period, can be used to help describe
a region's climatology,-
» observations collected as part of
research investigations to elucidate
chemical, dynamic, biological, or
radiative processes that contribute to
maintaining climate patterns or to
their variability,-
« highly precise, continuous observa-
tions of climate system variables col-
lected for the express purpose of
documenting long-term (decadal-to-
centennial) change,- and
• observations of climate proxies, col-
lected to extend the instrumental cli-
mate record to remote regions and
back in time to provide information
on climate change for millennial and
longer time scales.
The various federal agencies
involved in observing climate through
space-based and ground-based activi-
ties provide many long-term observa-
tions. Space-based systems have the
unique advantage of obtaining global
spatial coverage, particularly over the
vast expanses of the oceans, sparsely
populated land areas (e.g., deserts,
mountains, forests, and polar regions),
and the mid and upper troposphere and
stratosphere. They provide unique
measurements of solar output,- the
Earth's radiation budget,- vegetation
cover,- ocean biomass productivity,-
atmospheric ozone,- stratospheric water
vapor and aerosols,- greenhouse gas dis-
tributions,- sea level and ocean interior,-
ocean surface conditions,- winds,
weather, and tropical precipitation,- and
other variables.
Satellite observations alone are not
sufficient. In-situ observations are
required for the measurement of param-
eters that cannot be estimated from
space platforms (e.g., biodiversity,
ground water, carbon sequestration at
the root zone, and subsurface ocean
parameters). In-situ observations also
provide long time-series of observations
required for the detection and diagnosis
of global change, such as surface tem-
perature, precipitation and water
resources, weather and other natural
hazards, the emission or discharge of
pollutants, and the impacts of multiple
stresses on the environment due to
human and natural causes. To meet the
need for the documentation of global
changes on a long-term basis, the
United States integrates observations
from both research and operational sys-
tems. The goal of the U.S. observation
and monitoring program is to ensure a
long-term, high-quality record of the
state of the Earth system, its natural
variability, and changes that occur.
Since 1998, Parties to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Cli-
mate Change (UNFCCC) have noted
with concern the mounting evidence of a
decline in the global observing capabil-
ity and have urged Parties to undertake
programs of systematic observations and
to strengthen the collection, exchange,
and use of environmental data and infor-
mation. It has long been recognized that
the range of global observations needed
to understand and monitor Earth
processes contributing to climate and to
assess the impact of human activities
cannot be satisfied by a single program,
agency, or country. The United States
supports the need to improve global
observing systems for climate and to
exchange information on national plans
and programs that contribute to the
global capacity in this area.
Documentation of U.S.
Climate Observations
As part of its continuing contribu-
tions to systematic observations in sup-
port of climate monitoring, the United
States forwarded The U.S. Detailed
National Report on Systematic Observations
/or Climate to the UNFCCC Secretariat
on September 6, 2001 (U.S. DOC/
NOAA 200Ic). Because this was the
U.S. government's first attempt to doc-
ument all U.S. contributions to global
climate observations, a wide net was
cast to include information on observa-
tions that fell into each of the following
categories: (1) in-situ atmospheric ob-
servations,- (2) in-situ oceanographic
observations,- (3) in-situ terrestrial obser-
vations,- (4) satellite-based observations,
which by their nature cut across the
atmospheric, oceanographic, and ter-
restrial domains,- and (5) data and infor-
mation management related to
systematic observations. The report
attempted to cover all relevant observa-
tion systems and is representative of the
larger U.S. effort to collect environ-
mental data.
Material for the report was devel-
oped by a U.S. interagency Global Cli-
mate Observing System (GCOS)
coordination group comprised of repre-
sentatives from the following federal
agencies: (1) the U.S. Department
of Agriculture's Natural Resources
Conservation Service and U.S. Forest
Service,- (2) three line offices of the U.S.
Department of Commerce's National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
tion,- (3) the U.S. Department of
Energy's Office of Science,- (4) the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,-
(5) the U.S. Department of the Inte-
rior's U.S. Geological Survey,- (6) the
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration,- (7) the U.S. Depart-
ment of Transportation's Federal Avia-
tion Administration,- (8) the National
Science Foundation,- (9) the U.S. Naval
Oceanographic Office,- (10) the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers,- and (11) the
U.S. Air Force. The report was coordi-
nated with the U.S. Global Change
Research Program.
-------
Research and Systematic Observation i 145
/n-s/fu Climate Observation
The United States supports a broad
network of global atmospheric, ocean,
and terrestrial observation systems.
Atmospheric Observation
The United States supports 75 sta-
tions in the GCOS Surface Network
(GSN), 20 stations in the GCOS Upper
Air Network (GUAN), and 4 stations
in the Global Atmospheric Watch
(GAW). These stations are distributed
geographically as prescribed in the
GCOS and GAW network designs. The
data (metadata and observations) from
these stations are shared according to
GCOS and GAW protocols. The GSN
and GUAN stations are part of a larger
network, which was developed for pur-
poses other than climate monitoring.
Nonetheless, the stations fully meet the
GCOS requirements.
The United States has no compre-
hensive system designed to observe cli-
mate change and climate variability.
Basically, U.S. sustained observing sys-
tems provide data principally for noncli-
matic purposes, such as predicting
weather, advising the public, and manag-
ing resources. In addition, U.S. research-
observing systems collect data for
climate purposes, but are often oriented
toward gathering data for climate
process studies or other research pro-
grams, rather than climate monitoring.
They are usually limited in their spatial
and temporal extent. Because the U.S.
climate record is based upon a combina-
tion of existing operational and research
programs, it may not be "ideal" from a
long-term climate monitoring perspec-
tive. Nevertheless, these observing sys-
tems collectively provide voluminous
and significant information about the
spatial and temporal variability of U.S.
climate and contribute to the interna-
tional climate observing effort as well.
The atmospheric section in the main
body of the detailed national report
examines in-situ climate monitoring
involving systems from the surface,
upper air, and atmospheric deposition
domains (U.S. DOC/NOAA 2001 c).
Ocean Observation
The Global Ocean Observing Sys-
tem (GOOS) requirements are the same
as the GCOS requirements. Both are
based on the Ocean Observing System
Development Panel Report (OOSDP
1995). Like GCOS, the GOOS is based
on a number of in-situ and space-based
observing components. The United
States supports the Integrated Global
Ocean Observing System's surface and
marine observations through a variety
of components, including fixed and sur-
face-drifting buoys, subsurface floats,
and volunteer observing ships. It also
supports the Global Sea Level Observ-
ing System through a network of sea-
level tidal gauges. The United States
currently provides satellite coverage of
the global oceans for sea-surface tem-
peratures, surface elevation, ocean sur-
face winds, sea ice, ocean color, and
other climate variables. These satellite
activities are coordinated internation-
ally through the Committee on Earth
Observation Satellites.
Terrestrial Observation
For terrestrial observations, the
requirements for climate observations
were developed jointly between GCOS
and the Global Terrestrial Observing
System (GTOS) through the Terrestrial
Observations Panel for Climate (WMO
1997). GCOS and GTOS have identi-
fied permafrost thermal state and per-
mafrost active layer as key variables for
monitoring the state of the cryosphere.
GCOS approved the development of a
globally comprehensive permafrost-
monitoring network to detect temporal
changes in the solid earth component
of the cryosphere. As such, the Global
Terrestrial Network for Permafrost
(GTN-P) is quite new and still very
much in the developmental stage. The
International Permafrost Association
has the responsibility for managing and
implementing the GTN-P.
U.S. contributions to the GTN-P
network are provided by the Depart-
ment of the Interior and the National
Science Foundation, through grants to
various universities. All the U.S.
GTN-P stations are located in Alaska.
The active layer thickness is currently
being monitored at 27 sites. Forty-
eight bore holes exist in Alaska where
permafrost thermal state can be deter-
mined. Of these, 4 are classified as sur-
face (0-10 m) sites, 1 is shallow (10-25
m), 22 are intermediate depth (25—125 m),
and 21 are deep bore holes (>125 m). The
U.S. contribution to the GTN-P net-
work comes from short-term (three- to
five-year) research projects.
The United States operates a long-
term "benchmark" glacier program to
intensively monitor climate, glacier
motion, glacier mass balance, glacier
geometry, and stream runoff at a
few select sites. The data collected are
used to understand glacier-related
hydrologic processes and improve the
quantitative prediction of water
resources, glacier-related hazards, and
the consequences of climate change.
The approach has been to establish
long-term, mass-balance monitoring
programs at three widely spaced U.S.
glacier basins that clearly sample differ-
ent climate-glacier-runoff regimes. The
three glacier basins are South Cascade
Glacier in Washington State, and
Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers in
Alaska. Mass-balance data are available
beginning in 1959 for the South Cas-
cade Glacier, and beginning in 1966 for
the Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers.
The AmeriFLUX network endeavors
to establish an infrastructure for guid-
ing, collecting, synthesizing, and dis-
seminating long-term measurements of
CO2, water, and energy exchange from
a variety of ecosystems. Its objectives
are to collect critical new information
to help define the current global CO2
budget, enable improved projections of
future concentrations of atmospheric
CO2, and enhance the understanding of
carbon fluxes, net ecosystem produc-
tion, and carbon sequestration in the
terrestrial biosphere.
The terrestrial section of the detailed
U.S. report examines in-situ climate
monitoring and discusses, in addition to
the GTN-P, the Global Terrestrial Net-
work for Glaciers (GTN-G), and the
-------
146 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
AmeriFLUX programs, stream-flow and
surface-water gauging, ground-water
monitoring, snow and soil monitoring,
the U.S. paleoclimatology program,
ecological observation networks, fire-
weather observation stations, as well as
global, national, and regional land cover
characterization. The United States
contributes to all of these activities.
Satellite Observation Programs
Space-based, remote-sensing obser-
vations of the atmosphere-ocean-land
system have evolved substantially since
the early 1970s, when the first opera-
tional weather satellite systems were
launched. Over the last decade satel-
lites have proven their capability to
accurately monitor nearly all aspects of
the total Earth system on a global
basis—a capability unmatched by
ground-based systems, which are limited
to land areas and cover only about 30
percent of the planetary surface.
Currently, satellite systems monitor
the evolution and impacts of El Nino,
weather phenomena, natural hazards,
and extreme events, such as floods and
droughts,- vegetation cycles,- the ozone
hole,- solar fluctuations,- changes in
snow cover, sea ice and ice sheets,
ocean surface temperatures, and biolog-
ical activity,- coastal zones and algal
blooms,- deforestation and forest fires,-
urban development,- volcanic activity,-
tectonic plate motions,- and other cli-
mate-related information. These vari-
ous observations are used extensively in
real-time decision making and in the
strategic planning and management of
industrial, economic, and natural
resources. Examples include weather
and climate forecasting, agriculture,
transportation, energy and water
resource management, urban planning,
forestry, fisheries, and early warning
systems for natural disasters and human
health impacts.
The GCOS planning process
addressed satellite requirements for cli-
mate. In so doing, it identified an
extensive suite of variables that should
be observed and monitored from space
(WMO 1995). In addition, GCOS
plans specified that instrument calibra-
tion and validation be performed to
ensure that the resulting space-based
observations meet climate requirements
for accuracy, continuity, and low bias.
The current generation of U.S.
research satellite instruments exceeds
the GCOS requirements for the
absolute calibration of sensors—some-
thing that was lacking in the early satel-
lite platforms used for real-time
operational purposes. Several of the
historical data series from operational
satellites have been reprocessed using
substantially improved retrieval algo-
rithms to provide good-quality global
data products for use in climate change
research and applications.
NPOESS Program
Improving the on-board capabilities
for calibration on operational satellites
will be one of the objectives in the
development of the National Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite System (NPOESS) program.
Prior to the launch of NPOESS in
2008, an NPOESS Preparatory Project
(NPP) satellite will be launched in the
2005 time frame as a bridge mission
between the NASA Earth Observing
Satellites (EOS) program and NPOESS.
The mission of NPP is to demon-
strate advanced technology for atmos-
pheric sounding, and to provide
ongoing observations after EOS-Terra
and EOS-Aqua. It will supply data on
atmospheric and sea-surface tempera-
tures, humidity soundings, land and
ocean biological productivity, and cloud
and aerosol properties. NPP will also
provide early instrument and system-
level testing and early user evaluation of
NPOESS data products, such as algo-
rithms, and will identify opportunities
for instrument calibration. The informa-
tion and lessons learned from NPP will
help reduce instrument risk and will
enable design modifications in time to
ensure NPOESS launch readiness.
U.S. Environmental
Satellite Program
A number of U.S. satellite opera-
tional and research missions form the
basis of a robust national remote-
sensing program that fully supports
the requirements of GCOS (U.S.
DOC/NOAA 200 Ic). These include
instruments on the Geostationary
Operational Environmental Satellites
(GOES) and Polar Operational Envi-
ronmental Satellites (POES), the series
of Earth Observing Satellites (EOS),
the Landsats 5 and 7, the Total Ozone
Mapping Spectrometer satellite, and
the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measur-
ing sea-surface height, winds, and
waves. Additional satellite missions in
support of GCOS include (1) the
Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance
Monitor for measuring solar irradiance,-
(2) EOS-Terra,- (3) QuickSCAT,- (4) the
Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor
(SeaWiFS) for studying ocean produc-
tivity,- (5) the Shuttle Radar Topogra-
phy Mission,- and (6) the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission for measur-
ing rainfall, clouds, sea-surface temper-
ature, radiation, and lightning.
Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program
The Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) is a Department of
Defense program run by the Air Force
Space and Missile Systems Center. The
program designs, builds, launches, and
maintains several near-polar-orbiting,
sun-synchronous satellites, which moni-
tor the meteorological, oceanographic,
and solar—terrestrial physics environ-
ments. DMSP satellites are in a near-
polar, sun-synchronous orbit. Each
satellite crosses any point on the Earth
up to two times a day, thus providing
nearly complete global coverage of
clouds approximately every six hours.
Integrated Global
Observing Strategy
The United States cooperates on an
international basis with a number of
coordinating bodies. The Integrated
Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) is a
strategic planning process covering
major satellite- and surface-based sys-
tems for global environmental observa-
tions of the atmosphere, oceans, and
land, that provides a framework for
decisions and resource allocations by
-------
Research and Systematic Observation i 147
individual funding agencies. IGOS
assesses Earth-observing requirements,
evaluates capabilities of current and
planned observing systems, and has
begun (at least among the space agen-
cies) to obtain commitments to address
these gaps.
An IGOS Ocean Theme is in the
implementation phase under leadership
from GOOS. An analysis of require-
ments, gaps, and recommendations for
priority observations is underway for
integrated global carbon observations
as well as integrated global atmospheric
chemistry observations. Similar analy-
ses, recommendations, and commit-
ments are also being explored for
geological and geophysical hazards,
coasts and coral reefs, and the global
water cycle.
Operational Weather Satellites
Operational weather satellites are
internationally coordinated through the
Coordination Group for Meteorological
Satellites, of which the World Meteoro-
logical Organization is a member and
major beneficiary, along with five other
satellite agency members. The primary
body for policy and technical issues of
common interest related to the whole
spectrum of Earth observation satellite
missions is the Committee on Earth
Observation Satellites (CEOS). CEOS
has 11 space agency members, including
both research and operational satellite
agencies, with funding and program
responsibilities for a satellite Earth obser-
vation program currently operating or in
the later stages of system development.
CEOS encourages compatibility among
space-borne Earth-observing systems
through coordination in mission plan-
ning,- promotion of full and nondiscrimi-
natory data access,- setting of data
product standards,- and development of
data products, services, applications, and
policies.
Global Change Data and
Information System
Global environmental concerns are
an overriding justification for the unre-
stricted international exchange of
GCOS data and products for peaceful,
noncommercial, global scientific, and
applications purposes. As such, GCOS
developed an overarching data policy
that endorses the full and open sharing
and exchange of GCOS-relevant data
and products for all GCOS users at the
lowest possible cost. The United States
recognizes and subscribes to this data
policy.
Achieving the goals of the U.S. cli-
mate observing program requires multi-
disciplinary analysis of data and
information to an extent never before
attempted. This includes the analysis of
interlinked environmental changes that
occur on multiple temporal and spatial
scales, which is very challenging both
technically and intellectually. For exam-
ple, many types of satellite and in-situ
observations at multiple scales need to
be integrated with models, and the
results need to be presented in under-
standable ways to all levels of the
research community, decision makers,
and the public. Additionally, very large
volumes of data from a wide variety of
sources and results from many different
investigations need to be readily acces-
sible to scientists and other stakehold-
ers in usable forms that can be
integrated.
Various U.S. agencies have engaged
in extensive development of inter-
agency data and information processes
to foster better integration and accessi-
bility of data- and discipline-specific
information. The Global Change Data
and Information System (GCDIS) has
been developed to facilitate this goal.
GCDIS currently provides a gateway for
access to more than 70 federally funded
sources of data, both governmental and
academic. During the last decade, signif-
icant strides have been made in creating
seamless connections between diverse
data sets and sources, as well as enhanc-
ing its ability to search across the full
complement of data sources. While the
Internet has facilitated this effort, the
provision of data and information in
forms needed for cross-disciplinary
analyses remains a challenge.
The U.S. government's position (as
evidenced by its support of the "10
Principles of Climate Observations" and
of the U.S. climate research community
[NRC 1999]) is that high standards
must be met for a particular set of obser-
vations to serve the purpose of monitor-
ing the climate system to detect
long-term change. In general, the
observing programs and resulting data
sets described here have not yet fully
met these principles. This shortfall
stems from two main factors: (1) the
principles were articulated only within
the past decade (Karl et al. 1995), long
after the initiation of most of our long-
term observing systems,- and (2) more
recent observing programs typically do
not have climate monitoring as their
prime function.
The U.S. systematic climate observ-
ing effort will continue to improve and
enhance understanding of the climate
system. A full copy of the The U.S.
Detailed National Report on Systematic Obser-
vations /or Climate (U.S. DOC/NOAA
2001c) can be found at http://www.eis.
noaa.gov/gcos/soc_long.pdf.
-------
Chapter 9
Education,
Training, and
Outreach
Over the last three years, U.S. climate
change outreach and education
efforts have evolved significantly.
Early outreach efforts, which focused
primarily on the research and academic
community, have helped to expand cli-
mate change research activity and have
resulted in a robust research agenda that
has resolved many scientific uncertain-
ties about global warming. Scientists
and decision makers worldwide have
used the findings of U.S. research proj-
ects. More recent outreach efforts have
moved beyond the research commu-
nity, focusing on public constituencies
who may be adversely affected by the
impacts of climate change. These con-
stituencies will have the ultimate
responsibility to help solve the climate
change problem by supporting innova-
tive, cost-effective solutions at the
grassroots level.
Federal efforts to increase public
education and training on global cli-
mate change issues are designed to
-------
Education, Training, and Outreach i 149
increase understanding of the Earth's
complex climate system. This improved
understanding will enable decision mak-
ers and people potentially at risk from
the impacts of climate change to more
accurately interpret complex scientific
information and make better decisions
about how to reduce their risks.
Federal outreach and educational
activities are performed under several
U.S. mandates, including the Global
Change Research Act of 1990, the
National Climate Program Act, the
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and
the Environmental and Education Act of
1990. Federal programs often rely on
noneducational programs to simultane-
ously meet legislative mandates on
climate education and U.S. science, pol-
icy, and outreach goals.
In addition to outreach conducted at
the federal level, a growing movement of
nongovernmental outreach efforts has
proven to be very effective in engaging
the U.S. public and industry on the cli-
mate change issue. Most outside groups
work independently of government
funding in their climate change research
and outreach efforts, although some
nongovernmental programs are funded
in part by the federal government. Many
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)
enjoy tax-exempt status, which permits
them to receive private support and
reduce costs to donors. An extensive list
of NGOs conducting climate change
outreach and education initiatives may
be found at http://www.epa.gov/global-
warming/ links/org_links.html.
Industry is also playing an increasing
role in climate change outreach and edu-
cation. Many corporations have worked
extensively with federal government
partnership programs to resolve climate
change issues. These companies spend
millions of dollars to promote their cli-
mate change investments and viewpoints
to consumers and other industries, and
most disseminate information about cli-
mate change to their customers and the
public.
More recent outreach and education
efforts, both within government and by
NGOs and industry, have encouraged
many activities that adapt to a changing
climate or that reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. Because of these efforts, more
citizens understand the issue with a
higher level of sophistication. And as
people are becoming more familiar with
the problem, they are also beginning to
appreciate the impacts of society's
actions on the climate system.
This chapter presents a sample of cur-
rent U.S. education and outreach efforts
that are building the foundation for
broad action to reduce risks from climate
change. Because a comprehensive treat-
ment of NGO efforts is beyond the
scope of this chapter, it focuses on new
and updated governmental activities
since the previous National Communi-
cation.
U.S. GLOBAL CLIMATE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
EDUCATION AND OUTREACH
Sponsored by the U.S. Global
Change Research Program (USGCRP),
the U.S. national assessment of the
potential consequences of climate vari-
ability and change (NAST 2000 and
2001) has provided an important oppor-
tunity to reach out to the many inter-
ested parties, or stakeholders, about the
potential significance for them of future
changes in climate.
Regional Outreach
The National Assessment began in
1997 and 1998 with 20 regional work-
shops across the country. Each initiated
a discussion among the stakeholders,
scientific community, and other inter-
ested parties about the potential impor-
tance of climate change and the types
of potential consequences and response
options, all in the context of other
stresses and trends influencing the
region. On average, about 150 people
participated in each workshop. There
was extensive outreach to local media,
drawn in part by the frequent participa-
tion of high-level government officials.
Halfway through this effort, a National
Forum convened in Washington, D.C.,
attracted about 400 participants, from
Cabinet officials to some ranchers who
had never traveled outside of the cen-
tral U.S.
Moving from the workshop phase to
an assessment phase, the USGCRP
organized a range of activities that
involved assessment teams drawn from
the research and stakeholder communi-
ties. While sponsored by and working
with government agencies, these teams
were based largely in the academic com-
munity to broaden participation and
enhance their independence and credi-
bility. To focus analysis on the issues
identified in the regional workshops, 16
of these assessment teams had a regional
focus. Each team established an advisory
and outreach framework that was used
for the preparation of each assessment
report. The reports are being distributed
widely within each region, and outreach
activities include workshops, presenta-
tions, and the media. USGCRP agencies
are continuing to sponsor many of these
regional activities as a way of strength-
ening the dialogue with the public about
the potential consequences and signifi-
cance of climate change, and the antici-
patory actions that will be needed.
National Outreach
The USGCRP also sponsored five
national sectoral studies covering climate
change's potential consequences for agri-
culture, forests, human health, water
resources, and coastal areas and marine
resources (NAAG 2001, NFAG 2001,
NHAG 2000 and 2001, NWAG 2000,
NCAG 2000). The five broadly based
teams organized outreach activities rang-
ing from presentations at scientific and
special-interest meetings to full work-
shops and special issues of journals. Each
team is now issuing its report, distribut-
ing information widely to the public.
The National Assessment Synthesis
Team (NAST) was created as an inde-
pendent federal advisory committee to
integrate the findings and significance of
the five sectoral studies. The NAST was
composed of representatives from acade-
mia, government, industry, and NGOs.
Through a series of open meetings, fol-
lowed by a very extensive open review
process, the NAST prepared both an
overview report that summarizes the
findings (NAST 200la) and a founda-
tion report that provides more complete
-------
150 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
documentation (NAST 200 Ib). Both
reports are being widely circulated.
They are available on the Internet, and
copies are being sent to every state and
to major U.S. libraries.
The USGCRP is also using other
outreach tools to increase public under-
standing of the potential consequences
of climate change. USGCRP's Web site
(http://www.usgcrp.gov) helps connect
scientists, students and their teachers,
government officials, and the general
public to accurate and useful informa-
tion on global change. Also, the
newsletter Acclimations provides regular
information to a broad audience about
the national assessment (USGCRP
1998-2000).
The USGCRP is sponsoring the pre-
paration of curriculum materials based on
the national assessment. These materials
will be made widely available to teachers
over the Web, updating the various types
of materials made available during the
mid-1990s by a number of federal agen-
cies. Through these mechanisms, the
national assessment has directly involved
several thousand individuals, while reach-
ing out to many thousands more through
the reports and the media.
FEDERAL AGENCY
EDUCATION INITIATIVES
Climate change education at the pri-
mary and secondary (K—12) and univer-
sity levels has grown considerably over
the past three years. The growth of the
Internet has allowed educators through-
out the country to use on-line educa-
tional global change resources. Federal
government programs have supported
numerous initiatives, ranging from on-
line educational programs to research
support. This section and Table 9-1
present a sampling of these initiatives.
Department of Energy
The Department of Energy (DOE)
sponsors several programs that support
advanced global change research.
Global Change Education Program
DOE's Global Change Education
Program continues to support three
coordinated components aimed at pro-
viding research and educational support
to postdoctoral scientists, graduate stu-
dents, faculty, and undergraduates at
minority colleges and universities: the
Summer Undergraduate Research Expe-
rience, the Graduate Research Environ-
mental Fellowships, and the Significant
Opportunities in Atmospheric Research
and Science program.
Oak Ridge Institute for Science
and Education
The Science/Engineering Education
Division at the Oak Ridge Institute for
Science and Education continues to
develop and administer collaborative
research appointments, graduate and
postgraduate fellowships, scholarships,
and other programs that capitalize on
the resources of federal facilities across
the nation and the national academic
community. The aim is to enhance the
quality of scientific and technical edu-
cation and literacy, thereby increasing
the number of graduates in science and
engineering fields, particularly those
related to energy and the environment.
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration
From helping design K—12 curricula
to teacher training, NASA is heavily
involved in education initiatives related
to Earth science.
Earth System Science
Education Program
Sponsored by NASA through the
Universities Space Research Associa-
tion, this program supports the devel-
opment of curricula in Earth System
Science and Global Change at 44 par-
ticipating colleges and universities. The
program's Web site provides educa-
tional resources for undergraduates.
Earth Science Enterprise
Every year tens of thousands of stu-
dents and teachers participate in
NASAs Earth Science Enterprise pro-
gram. The program attempts to
improve people's understanding of the
natural processes that govern the global
environment and to assess the effects of
human activities on these processes. It is
expected to yield better weather fore-
casts, tools for managing agriculture and
forests, and information for commercial
fishers and coastal planners. Ultimately,
the program will improve our ability to
predict how climate will change.
While the program's ostensible goal
is scientific understanding, its ultimate
product is education in its broadest
form. The Earth Science Enterprise has
formulated education programs that
focus on teacher preparation, curricu-
lum and student support, support for
informal education and public commu-
nication, and professional training. Its
Earth System Science Fellowship pro-
gram encourages student research,
modeling, and analysis in support of the
USGCRP. More than 500 Ph.D. and
M.S. fellowships have been awarded
since the program's inception in 1990.
Partnerships
Partnerships allow agencies with
similar goals to combine resources and
expertise to serve the interests of edu-
cators and students.
Climate Change Partnership
Education Program
The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA), NASA, and NOAA ini-
tiated a partnership outreach program
for broadcast meteorologists on climate
change impacts and science. They
formed the partnership in response to
broadcasters' requests for educational
materials that they could use in their
community outreach and education
activities, particularly during school
visits. The resulting Climate Change Pre-
sentation Kit CD-ROM includes fact
sheets that can be downloaded, printed,
and distributed to audiences who have
varying levels of scientific literacy, a
complete PowerPoint slide presentation
that can be shown from a computer or
printed as overhead transparencies, sci-
ence experiments and games for class-
room use, contact names and phone
numbers for additional scientific infor-
mation, and links to informative Web
sites (U.S. EPA, NASA, and NOAA
1999).
-------
Education, Training, and Outreach i 151
TABLE 9-1 U.S. Government On-line Climate Change Educational Resources
Resource
Description
Web Site
Department of Energy
Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy Kids' Site
Energy Information
Administration Kids' Page
Fossil Energy—Education
Main Page
A wealth of information on types of
renewable energy.
Interactive Web page with energy
information, activities, and resources.
An introduction to fossil fuels for students.
http://www.eren.doe.gov/kids/
http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/
http://www.fe.doe.gov/education/main.html
Environmental Protection Agency
Global Warming Site
Global Warming Kids'Site
Information for general audiences about the
science of climate change, its impacts, green-
house gas emissions, and mitigation actions.
Overview of global warming and climate
science; includes interactive games.
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/kids/index.html
GLOBE Program
GLOBE Program Home Page
Interactive science and education site for
participants in the GLOBE program, grades K-12.
http://www.globe.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Educational Links List of Earth science educational links.
Teaching Earth Science Site
For Kids Only Site
Resources and information for Earth science
educators for elementary through university levels.
From NASA's Earth science Enterprise,
contains a wealth of Earth science information,
teacher resources, and interactive games.
http://eospso.gsf c.nasa.gov/eos_
homepage/education.html
http://www.earth.nasa.gov/education/index.html
http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
CLIMGRAPH
Specially for Students—
Climate Change and Our Planet
Specially for Teachers
Educational graphics on global
climate change and the greenhouse effect.
List of NOAA's climate change-related
sites tailored for kids.
List of NOAA's climate change-related
sites tailored for educators.
A Paleo Perspective
on Global Warming
For general audiences, a site to help teach the
importance of paleoclimate research and its
relation to global warming.
U.S. Global Change Research information Office
Global Change and Environmental List of global change and environmental education
Education Resources on-line resources.
http://www.fsl.noaa.gov/~osborn/
CLIMGRAPH2.html
http://www.education.noaa.gov/sclimate.html
http://www.education.noaa.gov/tclimate.html
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/
globalwarming/home.html
GCRIO Home Page
Common Questions About
Climate Change
Global Warming and Climate
Change
Data and information on climate change research,
adaptation/mitigation strategies and technologies.
Intended for general audiences.
Brochure explaining the issue for general audiences.
http://gcrio.org/edu/educ.html
http://gcrio.org
http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/cover.html
http://gcrio.org/gwcc/toc.html
U.S. Global Change Research Program
USGCRPHome Page
Global change information for students and
educators.
http://www.usgcrp.gov/
U.S. Geological Survey
Global Change Teacher Packet
Global Change Educational
Activities
An introduction and five activities for classroom use.
Information about global change for grades 4-6.
http://mac.usgs.gov/mac/isb/pubs/teachers-
packets/globalchange/globalhtm I/guide, html
http://www.usgs.gov/education/learnweb/GC.html
-------
152 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
GLOBE Program
Administered by NOAA, NASA,
NSF, and EPA, the Global Learning
and Observations to Benefit the Envi-
ronment (GLOBE) program continues
to bring together students, educators,
and scientists throughout the world to
monitor the global environment. The
program aims to increase environmen-
tal awareness and to improve student
achievement in science and mathemat-
ics. GLOBE's worldwide network has
expanded to represent more than
10,000 K-12 schools in over 95 coun-
tries. These students make scientific
observations at or near their schools in
the areas of atmosphere, hydrology,
biology, and soils, and report their
findings to the network.
FEDERAL AGENCY OUTREACH
Federal agencies provide the public,
state and local governments, industry,
and private groups with information
about national and global climate
change research and risk assessments,
U.S. mitigation activities, and policy
developments. Agencies work on out-
reach efforts independently and in
partnership with other federal agen-
cies, NGOs, and industry. Although
outreach activities may vary from
agency to agency, most of them share
the common goal of increasing aware-
ness about the potential risks climate
change poses to the environment and
society. Current outreach encourages
constituencies to participate in existing
federal voluntary programs that pro-
mote climate change mitigation and
adaptation activities.
Department of Energy
DOE supports numerous initiatives
focused on increasing energy effi-
ciency and reducing greenhouse gas
emissions.
Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center
The Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center (CDIAC), which
includes the World Data Center for
Atmospheric Trace Gases, is DOE's
primary center for global change data
and information analysis. CDIAC
responds to data and information
requests from users from all over the
world who are concerned about the
greenhouse effect and global climate
change. CDIAC's data holdings
include historical records of the con-
centrations of carbon dioxide and
other radiatively active gases in the
atmosphere,- the role of the terrestrial
biosphere and the oceans in the bio-
geochemical cycles of greenhouse
gases,- emissions of carbon dioxide to
the atmosphere,- long-term climate
trends,- the effects of elevated carbon
dioxide on vegetation,- and the vulner-
ability of coastal areas to rising sea
level.
National Institute for Global
Environmental Change
The National Institute for Global
Environmental Change conducts
research on global climate change in
six U.S. regions: Great Plains, Mid-
west, Northeast, South Central,
Southeast, and West. The Institute
integrates and synthesizes information
to help decision makers and communi-
ties better respond to the effects of cli-
mate change.
Each region has a "host institution,"
a prominent university that appoints a
Regional Director who acts in an
administrative capacity. Regional cen-
ters develop their own research pro-
grams by soliciting proposals from
scholars throughout the nation. These
programs must focus on areas impor-
tant to global environmental change
and must meet DOE's research priori-
ties and the following criteria:
» Improve scientific understanding of
global environmental and climate
change issues.
» Reduce uncertainties surrounding
key environmental and climate
change science.
* Create experimental or observation
programs to enhance the under-
standing of regional- or ecosystem-
scale processes contributing to
global change.
» Improve decision-making tools for
resolving global environmental and
climate change issues.
» Build education and training oppor-
tunities and develop new curricu-
lum materials to increase the flow
of talented scholars into global
environmental change research
areas.
» Focus contributions to public edu-
cation on the subject of global
climate change and other energy-
related environmental risks.
Regional Roundtables
DOE held roundtable meetings
with various segments of the energy
industry to discuss implementing its
planned energy partnership programs
for energy efficiency. Workshop par-
ticipants were asked to advise DOE's
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy about how to
improve the quality of the individual
program implementation plans, as well
as the overall package of initiatives.
Attendees represented manufacturers,
builders, utility executives, engineers,
and others who offered a variety of
perspectives on the programs. These
meetings were instrumental in shaping
the final energy partnership programs,
and many of the participants' sugges-
tions were incorporated into the
revised implementation plans.
Environmental
Protection Agency
Following are some examples of
EPA's numerous climate change out-
reach and education initiatives.
Business/Industry Outreach
EPA has taken various steps to
engage business and industry on cli-
mate change-related issues. For exam-
ple, EPA, the Risk and Insurance
Management Society, Inc., the Federal
Emergency Management Agency,
NOAA, DOE, and the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory co-
sponsored a climate change and insur-
ance roundtable in March 2000 to
share information and ideas about the
risks that climate change poses to the
insurance industry and society. The
roundtable provided insurance and
financial executives with information
-------
Education, Training, and Outreach i 153
about climate science and policy infor-
mation. It also explored alternative risk
management tools as a way to mitigate
and adapt to the impacts of climate
change. EPA also partnered with DOE
to produce the publication U.S. Insur-
ance Industry Perspectives on Global Climate
Change (Mills et al. 2001).
Global Warming Site
Provided as a public service in sup-
port of EPA's mission to protect human
health and the natural environment, the
Global Warming Site strives to present
accurate information on climate change
and global warming in a way that is
accessible and meaningful to all parts of
society. The site is broken down into
four main sections: climate (science),
emissions, impacts, and actions.
Updated daily to reflect the latest peer-
reviewed science and policy informa-
tion, the site contains over 2,000
content pages, as well as hundreds of
official documents and publications.
During 2001 the site averaged several
hundred thousand page hits per month.
Outdoor/Wildlife Outreach
Since 1997 EPA has conducted cli-
mate change outreach activities for the
outdoor recreation and wildlife enthusi-
ast community. EPA staff have attended
conferences and conventions of such
diverse groups as Ducks Unlimited, the
Izaak Walton League, the Wildlife
Management Institute, the Federation
of Fly Fishers, the National Association
of Interpretation, and America Out-
doors, distributing information about
climate change science and impacts as
they relate to the interests of each com-
munity. EPA has given presentations
and conducted workshops at conven-
tions and has contributed articles to the
various groups' newsletters and maga-
zines. To convey the vulnerabilities of
specific recreational activities to the
impacts of climate change, EPA has also
developed targeted brochures and edu-
cational kits for use with the outdoor
enthusiast audience. In 2002 EPA plans
to release a toolkit for leaders of hunt-
ing and angling organizations to use
with their constituencies.
Sea Level Rise Outreach
To meet U.S. obligations under the
Framework Convention on Climate
Change for taking measures to adapt to
climate change, EPA supports a number
of activities that encourage timely
measures in anticipation of sea level
rise. For example, EPAs continual rec-
ommendations to state and local gov-
ernments to consider sea level rise
within their ongoing initiatives has
resulted in four states' passing regula-
tions that ensure the inland migration
of wetlands as sea level rises. A planning
scenario mapping project is working
with coastal planners to develop
county-scale maps that illustrate where
people are likely to hold back the sea
and which areas are likely to flood. To
stimulate dialogue within communities
about how to prepare for sea level rise,
EPA is developing brochures that
explain the risks of sea level rise and
also include the county-scale maps.
Additionally, an outreach program to
sand and gravel companies—who sup-
ply the fill material needed to elevate
areas as the sea rises—is getting under-
way in one coastal state.
State and Local Climate
Change Program
States and localities can play a sig-
nificant role in promoting the reduction
of greenhouse gases if they have the
tools they need for assessing climate
change issues in their daily decision
making. By providing them with guid-
ance and technical information about
climate change, local air quality, and
the health and economic benefits of
reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
EPAs State and Local Climate Change
Program is enhancing the ability of
state and local decision makers to com-
prehensively address their environmen-
tal and economic goals.
The program provides a variety of
technical and outreach or education
services and products related to clean
air and climate change issues, including:
» assistance for states to analyze the
co-benefits of mitigating greenhouse
gases, developing and updating
emission inventories, and assessing
the impacts of climate change poli-
cies on state economies,-
» new tools and models that build
understanding of the broader bene-
fits of climate protection and better
integrate multi-emission reductions,
as well as multi-goal (e.g., energy
efficiency and renewable energy)
strategies in state implementation
plans submitted to EPA,-
» capacity-building outreach through
EPAs Web site, an electronic "list-
serv," and case studies,-
» a best-practices clearinghouse to
promote multi-emission reduction
strategies, energy efficiency, sustain-
ability, clean energy, and other
greenhouse gas mitigation measures,-
» information on state and local leg-
islative activities related to green-
house gases,-
» state forest carbon data,- and
» additional enhanced opportunities to
promote state and local efforts,
including creating success stories for
wide dissemination and replication.
In 2000 the program distributed over
4,200 CD-ROM outreach kits to state
and local leaders, providing information
on voluntary strategies for reducing
greenhouse gases. The kits are helping
states and communities save money,
improve air quality, lower risks to
human health, and reduce traffic con-
gestion, among other benefits. Their
slide show on climate change is suitable
for presentations to community groups,
business organizations, and others.
They also include more than 100 infor-
mation sheets on climate change sci-
ence, its potential impacts on each
state, and technologies and policies that
lower greenhouse gas emissions.
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration
NASA's well-established outreach
activities are designed to draw public
and press attention to its work in the
climate change arena.
Workshops for Journalists
NASAs co-sponsored workshops on
global climate change provide science
reporters with basic tutorials, information
-------
154 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
on major scientific advances, access to
international science leaders, and oppor-
tunities to visit major scientific facilities.
In 1999 NASA hosted its first Global
Change Workshop for journalists in con-
cert with the American Geophysical
Union.
Media Directory for Global
Change Experts
Published biennially, NASAs Earth
Observing System Global Change Media Direc-
tory provides journalists with a ready
source of international expertise on
global climate change science and policy
(NASA 2001). The directory contains
contact information for more than 300
science experts available to the media in
climate change, natural hazards, ozone,
water resources, global warming, and
many other areas. It is available on-line
and is searchable by topic, name, affilia-
tion, or location.
Earth Observatory
On-Line Newsroom
NASAs on-line newsroom for journal-
ists features the latest news on Earth sci-
ence research released from all NASA
centers and more than 80 universities
participating in NASAs Earth programs
through sponsored research. Resources
updated weekly include media
announcements, summaries of headline
news, listings of newly published
research, a searchable directory of
experts, and selected writers' guides.
National Park Service
As the guardian of the world's finest
system of national parks, the National
Park Service applies innovative tech-
niques to reach out to and actively
involve diverse audiences in preserving
and restoring our nation's parks. Follow-
ing are some examples of the Park Ser-
vice's increased support of education on
global warming and environmental stew-
ardship.
Environmental Leadership Program
As part of its Environmental Leader-
ship Program, the Park Service has
turned Utah's Zion National Park visitor
center into a model environmentally sus-
tainable facility. The new center incor-
porates passive solar design to reduce
overall energy consumption and uses
only 80 percent of the energy required
for other national park visitor centers.
The center also receives 30 percent of its
total electricity needs from solar power.
Through an innovative transportation
agreement with the nearby town of Bon-
neville, visitors can reduce fuel consump-
tion by parking in town and riding
alternative-fueled buses to the park.
Green Energy Parks
Green Energy Parks focuses on con-
serving energy and incorporating renew-
able-energy resources into the national
park system to save money in park oper-
ations, as well as to promote more envi-
ronmentally friendly facilities. The Park
Service educates its visitors about its sus-
tainable environment efforts through a
combination of sign- age, brochures, and
fact sheets. For example, at Lake Meade,
Nevada, the Park Service has turned the
park entrance tollbooth into a state-of-
the-art, renewable-energy facility that is
powered solely by the building's photo-
voltaic roof panels. Road signs describe
the facility to drivers and explain the
technology's environmental benefits.
National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
Several NOAA offices are signifi-
cantly contributing to climate change
and weather-related research education
and public outreach efforts.
National Climatic Data Center
NOAAs National Climatic Data Cen-
ter maintains a vast database of weather-
related information used by specialists in
meteorology, insurance, and agriculture
and by various business sectors. The cen-
ter provides information through special
reports and its Web site.
7776 National Climatic
Prediction Center
NOAAs National Climatic Predic-
tion Center recently developed climate
outlook products to help farmers,
businesses, and the public better plan
for extreme weather events related
to variations in climate. The new
products are available on the center's
Expert Assessment Web page at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/prod-
ucts/expert_assessment/. They include
drought, hurricane, and winter out-
looks, along with an El Nino—Southern
Oscillation advisories and threat assess-
ments. The center also maintains a cli-
mate educational Web site.
National Geophysical Data Center
NOAAs National Geophysical Data
Center's primary mission is data manage-
ment. The center plays a leading role in
the nation's research into the environ-
ment, while providing public domain
data to a wide group of users. It features
a Web site on paleoclimate at http://
www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/global warm-
ing/home.html, which was developed
both to help educate, inform, and high-
light the importance of paleoclimate
research and to illustrate how paleocli-
mate research relates to global warming
and other important issues of climate
variability and change.
Office of Global Programs
NOAAs Office of Global Programs
(OGP) released the fourth of its Reports to
the Nation series in 1997. The reports
offer educators and the public a clear
understanding of complex atmospheric
phenomena, such as El Nino, the ozone
layer, and climate change. Through a
grant to the Lamont—Doherty Earth
Observatory, OGP produced a public
fact sheet on the North Atlantic Oscilla-
tion. OGP also created a special climate
Web page to make NOAAs climate
information more accessible to the gen-
eral public.
During the 1997-98 El Nino and
1998-99 La Nina, OGP and the
National Climatic Prediction Center
worked closely with the Federal Emer-
gency Management Agency, state agen-
cies, and the press to educate the public
about seasonal climate variability, the
importance of advisories of El Nino-
Southern Oscillations and other seasonal
and decadal oscillations to our daily
lives, and the need to prepare for related
extreme weather events.
-------
Education, Training, and Outreach i 155
Smithsonian Institution
Every year the Smithsonian Institu-
tion's exhibits educate millions of U.S.
and foreign visitors about many areas of
science, including global warming.
Understanding the Forecast:
Global Warming
Originally shown at New York's
American Museum of Natural History,
this exhibit was updated by the Smith-
sonian in the summer of 1997 at the
National Museum of Natural History in
Washington, D.C. Nearly 443,000 visi-
tors passed through the exhibit that
summer, and many more viewed it on its
nationwide tour. The exhibit's interac-
tive displays provided information on
climate change science and explained
the connections between our daily use
of electricity, gasoline, and consumer
products and greenhouse gas emissions.
The displays also demonstrated how we
can reduce our individual contributions
to greenhouse gas emissions.
Under the Sun: An Outdoor
Exhibition of Light
Tens of thousands of visitors viewed
the Cooper Hewitt's outdoor solar
energy exhibit in the gardens of the
museum's Andrew Carnegie mansion in
New York City. The Smithsonian later
sent the exhibit on tour to other cities,
including a summer stay in the gardens
behind the Smithsonian's castle on the
Mall in Washington, D.C. The exhibit
demonstrated how solar energy systems
can meet architectural and design pref-
erences, while providing energy that
reduces pollution and greenhouse gas
emissions. The exhibit script paid spe-
cial attention to helping visitors under-
stand how energy consumption is
linked to global warming. Both federal
agencies and private industry partners
helped fund the exhibit.
Forces of Change
The Smithsonian is working on an
exhibit that examines the geological,
environmental, and cultural processes
that have shaped and continue to
change our world. It consists of a per-
manent exhibit hall at the Smithsonian's
National Museum of Natural History,
traveling exhibitions, publications,
interactive computer products, and
public programs, including a lecture
series and electronic classroom courses.
Opened in the summer of 2001, the
exhibit is expected to be seen by six
million museum visitors annually. Its
outreach programs and materials will
reach additional millions throughout
the nation. The exhibit's supporters
include NASA, the WK. Kellogg Foun-
dation, USDA, the Mobil Foundation,
Inc., the American Farmland Trust, EPA,
and the U.S. Global Change Research
Program.
Global Links
As part of its Forces of Change pro-
gram, the Smithsonian is developing
the Global Links exhibit, designed to
tell a series of global climate change
stories. The first story will explore El
Nino and its possible links to global
warming. The second story will exam-
ine greenhouse gases and the ozone
hole. An EPA grant has supported pre-
liminary planning of the Global Links
exhibit.
Antarctica Exhibit
The National Museum of Natural
History is seeking funding for an
exhibit that explores how research in
Antarctica allows us to learn more about
global climate change in the past and to
improve predictions for future change.
The exhibit is scheduled to open in June
2003.
Partnerships
Government organizations with
joint interests in climate change have
formed partnerships to educate the pub-
lic about climate change and to offer
suggestions for how individuals and
communities can help reduce its risks.
Following are some examples.
It All Adds Up to Cleaner Air
This collaborative effort of the U.S.
Department of Transportation and EPA
is informing the public about the con-
nections between their transportation
choices, traffic congestion, and air pol-
lution. The program emphasizes simple,
convenient actions people can take that
can improve air quality when practiced
on a wide scale.
Outdoor Interpreter's Tool Kit
EPA led a partnership effort with the
National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service, and NOAA to develop
a climate change educational toolkit
CD-ROM for park wildlife interpreters
(U.S. EPA and NPS 2001). The kit pro-
vides interpreters with fact sheets and
presentation materials that investigate
the links between climate change and
changes to habitat, ecosystems,
wildlife, and our national parks. The
partnership also produced a climate
change video that will inform park visi-
tors about climate change and its
impacts on national parks. Released
early in 2002, the kit includes other out-
reach materials, such as Park Service cli-
mate change bookmarks.
Reporter's Guide on
Climate Change
Supported by NOAA and DOE, the
nonprofit National Safety Council's
Environmental Health Center produced
a second-edition guide for journalists
on climate change in 2000 (NSC 2000).
Reporting on Climate Change: Understanding
the Science is part of a series of reporters'
guides designed to enhance public
understanding of the significant envi-
ronmental health risks and challenges
facing modern society. Based on the
findings of the 1995 Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change assessment
report, the guide explains major global
warming issues in detail, as well as
broader strategies for successful science
reporting, interaction with the scientific
community, and understanding scien-
tific reporting methods. The guide also
contains a glossary and list of public
and private information sources and
Web links.
-------
Appendix A
Emission Trends
-------
Appendix A i 157
NDS (CO2)
ONS
EM
5)
TABLE
(Sheet 1
iil i
See
ake
i!
•g S 13
-------
158 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
s
I
*o g
SG M
c/: '«
"S OS 1
D ~ w
h1?
u
2
Q
%
H
ABLE 10 EMISSION
Sheet 2 of 5)
f o
»
"
*
S
S
»
i
1
i
i
i
2
S
9t
O
b
n
C
i.
*
t
b
(.
u
0
t
t
0
C
a
2
t
b
(.
O
•1
1
>
J
n
;
i
i
J
3
1
I
3
3
:
r
a
|
0
1
s
p
a
s
s
s
2
»
*
|
«
S
d
ro
i
s
=
0
1
„
1
S
otal Emissions
H
SO
1
o
S
o
s
1
v>
VI
-
s
1
-•
i
—
98*989
—
d
r^
t-
^
i
~"
>
c
U
«
O
§
g
o
sO
OS
10
so
SO
•n
(N
N
«
5
i
rs
d
sO
SO
fN
4. Other Sectors
g
0
8
o
8
O
O
o
o
d
d
s
d
8
d
§
s
5
V
^.
O
ON"
O
ON
S
0
C
SU
1
£
^o
2
O
fl
SO
o
s
8
O
d
so
o
025.64
~
N
~
CN
—
d
•S
B. Fugitive Emissions from F
rN
I
S
S
m
2;
H
o
—
<*
fN
O
O
j-i
X}
ON
X)
E
S
r-
ON
OC
I. Solid Fuels
5;
*
so"
SO
£
SO
sO
S
S
w-i
Wl
^
(N
O
00
o
r-
3
r-
s
r-
i
r-
d
H-l
r-
i
o
3
^J
.
»
^
m
£
v>
g
2
i
1
ft
S
1
Industrial Processes
f4
g
o
8
O
£
8
O
o
d
d
d
d
s
d
t
'1
—
o
oo
so
S
•n
OO
tn
S
2
SO
so
SO
ON
S
2
in
r-
sd
B. Chemicallndustry
g
o
8
O
g
O
o
0
o
d
8
d
d
d
d
C. Metal Production
g
o
8
O
g
8
0
o
d
d
d
d
d
•r
Q
'
*
«
^
i.
'}.
Bf
C/l
g
1
S
*©
d
o
UJ
-1
rc
'
"!"
j
^
•
£
•o
S
F. Consumption of Halocarb
g
o
8
O
O
o
8
0
8
d
d
d
o
o
o
d
j
O
g
0
§
o
§
o
§
0
s
d
§
d
d
2
§
K
Solvent and Other Product I
o
m
2
S
00
n
0>
s
1
s
«
s
s
3
1
90
1
r-1
s
«
JO
00
r-
3
r-
s
"s
1
•»
M
0
so"
2
N
so"
00
so"
rf
m
3
1
so
5
so
CN
oo
so
oo
00
00
so
T
sO
1
>0
A. Enteric Fermentation
S
S
sD
O
£
n
S
fl
-
477.44
ON
00
(N
SO
fN
d
S
sd
ON
(N
**)
2 Emissions and Remo
g
o
o
o
o
8
O
8
O
8
O
8
d
8
d
8
d
d
d
•£
LL
*
1
2
5
0
p
I
g;
ii
0
»S
in
"
i
^
00
«n
-
fl
s
7\
0
I
0
§
d
,
«
S
o
fN
ri
^
0
o
s
D
o"
oo
I/-)
o"
p
so
o
fN
U-l
O
s
30
O
0
ON
0
OO
O
OO
o
c
A. Solid Waste Disposal on I
SU
(N
»
fi
>
s
tN
O
SO
so
00
SO
W)
o
so"
3
O
00
ft
u-i
o
CN
B. Waste-water Handling
g
o
g
0
g
0
g
o
8
O
8
d
8
O
O
d
o
d
8
d
C. Waste Incineration
o
o
8
0
g
0
8
0
8
O
8
d
8
d
d
d
d
Q
O
O
g
e
§
§
0
s
d
1
1
1
1
s
i
g
1
r-
o
o
§
O
g
0
s
0
8
d
8
O
Z
d
8
d
8
d
\
emo Items:
&
^
M
0
e*
S
*
^
»
Ov
*
S
2
2
S
0
tern ational Bunkers
oo
so
IN
"
£
5
—
^
2
5.
o
oo
i
o
o
0
^
o
d
d
OO
d
CO
d
oo
so
d
o
u
UJ
W
UJ
UJ
Z
UJ
Z
UJ
Z
UJ
Z
g
unilateral Operations
£
';.
O: Emissions from Biomass
u
-------
Appendix A i 159
° 8 kr
«
-------
160 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Pu
-f
u
i
g
JS
o
X
g
S
u
I
O
ft
U
X
o
-
u
X
8
p
S
u
X
w>
U
X
§
2
o
x
M
3
o
X
O
R
u
X
s
s
Sa
>*->
I
u
X
u
S
^
u
S
S
uf
u
§
U.
U
§
t£"
0>
5
r?
0
s
u.
u
s
gT
0
tn
t«n
u.
I/)
u
u.
O
<
1§
ll
fi O
t "S.
£ I
rt W
Ifc
at
T 2
g!
3 O
11
-------
Appendix A i 161
.3
o i
I 1
C/1 '£
1 S! 1
S - £
*t
TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (SUMM^
(Sheet 5 of 5)
a
I
£
-
1
S!
It
9-
8
1
s
§
Base yearu)
o
2
{
[
i
b
(
t
b
rj
i
f.
c
t
g; g QJ ~
: TJ- oo oo
i vt — m
1 -^ r^ S
JJ S 5
— — 5 £j
NO" oo rs 3;'
» ^
4,381,799.61
5.403,199.61
637,951.13
441,628.52
r •* ov r-
1 I 1 SJ
•*' 10
i i 1 i
T" to
g ° S S ^
^T rZ ff< r- &
c r- ov — oo
•S S ff 2 .2
g S S 2 5
•g •* w-i
^
1 1 1 i
S ° s -
c*T -"T
- - m ^
2 ^ S 2
2 2: ^ s
8888
O O O O
5
3 > -i
5 i |
] g JS,
) 11 e
i fL=
3 2 u u 2
— in o fi »*>
i m o is (S
— i 00 00 « O
— S3
* ?S S 5 S
« «
^C O O ^H —
m no O f*> «*1
aSSSi
c4 - fX > 90
rf*
5R8 3 3
IIIII
s a s s s
533 §i
S S 8 S S
531 S S
R-S-III
I? 3
g S 8 ffi S
o^ r-^ o ix ti
\o o\" oo o ae
^" ^
I S 1 S g
R So 8 S n
gsisi
asf^||
c o o o o
o o o o o
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
Total (with net CO, emissions/removals)
Total (without CO] from LUCF) '"
S
1
K
^
I
g
I
1
i
?
o
T
Q
Ir.RPFNHOI SF GAS SOURCE AND SINK
S S 8
S i °
. ^
(N O
1 **i
s a
00 \O O
3 O
S S
1 (N O
1 ft
" ^
**» M
000
**„ ri
§ ?
o R K 8
1 5-3
i "
TT CN O
1 "^l
00^ -^
o r~
,
r-- r- o
^ " fi" •«
0 S 8
"' I
000 W
o'od £
T3
O
4. Agriculture
5. Land-Use Change and Forestry <7t
6. Waste
7. Other
(6)The information in these rows is requested to facilitate cor
and removals from Land-Use Change and Forestry.
<7) Net emissions.
-------
162 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS
(Sheet 1 of 1)
United States of America
1999
Submission 2001
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK
CATEGORIES
Total (Net Emissions)'"
1. Energy
A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach)
1. Energy Industries
2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction
3. Transport
4. Other Sectors
5. Other
B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels
1. Solid Fuels
2. Oil and Natural Gas
2. Industrial Processes
A. Mineral Products
B. Chemical Industry
C. Metal Production
D. Other Production
E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6
F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6
G. Other
3. Solvent and Other Product Use
4. Agriculture
A. Enteric Fermentation
B. Manure Management
C. Rice Cultivation
D. Agricultural Soils'2'
E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas
F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues
G. Other
5. Land-Use Change and Forestry'"
6. Waste
A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land
B. Wastewater Handling
C. Waste Incineration
D. Other
C02(1)
CH4
N2O
SF6
CO2 equivalent (Gg )
4,567,749.89
5,464,788.74
5,453,088.14
1,953,352.50
1,155,609.76
1,677,713.82
577,133.24
89,278.82
11,700.60
0.00
11,700.60
67,401.42
65,829.18
1,572.24
0.00
NE
0.00
0.00
0.00
,.' *• " <• '
IE
*"V , ~i
* ••' • f ..:
-990,400.00
25,959.73
0.00
25,959.73
0.00
7. Other (please specify) 0.00
Memo Items:
International Bunkers
Aviation
Marine
Multilateral Operations
CO2 Emissions from Biomass
NA
107,345.46
60,969.72
46,375.74
NE
234,062.51
619,584.42
218,151.43
12,621.56
532.12
3,296.79
4,509.02
4,283.63
0.00
205,529.87
61,828.15
143,701.71
1,682.52
0.00
1,682.52
0.00
0.00
172,880.28
127,201.20
34,394.30
10,692.97
0.00
0.00
591.81
0.00
0.00
226,870.20
214,636.53
12,233.68
0.00
0.00
0.00
NA
44.30
35.30
9.00
0.00
." '• ' • '" ,
432,589.31
79,052.75
79,052 75
8,645.76
5,823.37
63,369.66
1,213.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
29,211.21
0.00
29,211.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
315,895.13
17,181.77
. - !
298,281.28
0.00
432.08
0.00
0.00
8,430.22
•
8,183.31
246.91
0.00
0.00
NA
953.35
599.03
354.32
0.00
87,105.19
( 7 :
, ...
,'..,...f., r-lv
87,105.19
'
0.00
30,400.00
56,705.19
0.00
t ; " •* • . '.*
sV "'
•.!„ * f
.„;«...- :..,lv
' ..' ... \ n •
? * • *
."!'".•.* "^
> ., ,
0.00
NA
,'
^,
16,843.57
•
.''... . ~
'it '• ••-
*
16,843.57
0.00
10,040.05
0.00
6,803.52
0.00
,T ...... . ':
" ' * .*
' * ' \
' j- •
* ... ••' ^ ... . .
;,..• , ,,»*.,
0.00
NA
-! 41 +f
31,800.00
•
Aj ,...„,
31,800.00
- "
0.00
6,100.00
0.00
25,700.00
0.00
, „'
:' . -
£ ...>'.
0.00
NA
5,755,672.39
5,761,992.91
5,544,762.45
1,962,530.39
1,164,729.92
1,745,592.50
582,630.82
89,278.82
217,230.46
61,828.15
155,402.31
234,043.92
65,829.18
32,465.97
16,140.05
0.00
30,400.00
89,208.72
0.00
0.00
488,775.40
127,201.20
51,576.07
10,692.97
298,281.28
0.00
1,023.89
0.00
-990,400.00
261,260.16
214,636.53
20,416.99
26,206.64
0.00
0.00
0.00
108,343.11
61,604.05
46,739.06
0.00
234,062.51
(l) For CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry the net emissions are to be reported. Please note that for the purposes of reporting, the signs
for uptake are always (-) and for emissions (+).
<2> See footnote 4 to Summary 1 .A of this common reporting format.
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK
CATEGORIES
Land-Use Change and Forestry
A. Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks
B. Forest and Grassland Conversion
C. Abandonment of Managed Lands
D. CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soil
E. Other
Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry
CO,
emissions
C02
removals
Net CO2
emissions /
removals
CH4
NjO
Total
emissions
CO; equivalent (Gg )
0.00
0.00
0.00
32,300.00
0.00
32,300.00
-720,900.00
4™«'™ '" '''tWttfl
0.00
-294,100.00
-7,700.00
-1,022,700.00
-720,900.00
0.00
0.00
-261,80000
-7,700.00
-990,400.00
4- *
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-720,900.00
0.00
0.00
-261,800.00
-7,700.00
-990,400.00
Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land-Use Change and Forestry'8] 6,746,072.39|
Total CO; Equivalent Emissions with Lan^d-Use Change andl^o^estry''] 5,755,672.3'
(a) The information in these rows is requested to facilitate comparison of data, since Parties differ in the way they report emissions and removals from
Land-Use Change and Forestry.
-------
Appendix B
Policies and
Measures
Energy: Commercial and Residential
Energy: Industrial
Energy: Supply
Transportation
Industry (Non-C02)
Agriculture
Forestry
Waste Management
Cross-sectoral Policies and Measures
-------
164 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Energy: Commercial and Residential
ENERGY STAR® for the Commercial Market1
tail Ml 'tkmJtm Sswnup
Description: Commercial buildings account for more than 15 percent of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. Many commercial
buildings could effectively operate with 30 percent less energy if owners invested in energy-efficient products, technologies, and
best management practices. ENERGY STAR in the commercial sector is a partnership program that promotes the improvement of
the energy performance of entire buildings.
Objectives: ENERGY STAR® provides information and motivation to decision makers to help them improve the energy perform-
ance of their buildings and facilities. The program also provides performance benchmarks, strategies, technical assistance, and
recognition.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary agreement.
Status Of implementation: ENERGY STAR® has been underway since 1991 with the introduction of Green Lights. The program
developed a strong partnership with large and small businesses and public organizations, such as state and local governments and
school systems. The program's strategy has evolved substantially since the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report, with the major program
focus now on promoting high-performing (high-efficiency) buildings and providing decision makers throughout an organization
with the information they need to undertake effective building improvement projects.
An innovative tool introduced in 1999 allows the benchmarking of building energy performance against the national stock of
buildings. This tool is being expanded to represent the major U.S. building types, such as office, school (K-12), retail, and hos-
pitality buildings. This national building energy performance rating system also allows for recognizing the highest-performing
buildings, which can earn the ENERGY STAR label. By the end of 2001, the program expects to be working with more than 11
billion square feet of building space across the country and to show over 7,000 rated buildings and more than 1,750 buildings
labeled for excellence. EPA estimates that the program avoided 23 teragrams of CO2 in 2000 and projects reductions of 62 ter-
agrams of CO2 in 2010.
Implementing entities: The partnership is a national program, managed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Implementing entities include a wide range of building owners and users, such as retailers, healthcare organizations, real estate
investors, state and local governments, schools and universities, and small businesses.
Costs Of policy Or measure: Costs are defined as those monetary expenses necessary for participants' implementation of the
program. Participants evaluate the cost-effective opportunities for improved energy performance and upgrade their facilities and
operations accordingly. While energy-efficiency improvements require an initial investment, these costs are recovered over a
period of time.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: By reducing energy demand and use, ENERGY STAR® also reduces emis-
sions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: By developing established energy performance benchmarks for commercial
buildings, ENERGY STAR in the commercial sector complements other measures at the national level, such as the Department of
Energy's (DOE's) Rebuild America.
Contact: Angela Coyle, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-9719, coyle.angela@epa.gov.
Actions 1 and 2 in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report, continuing.
-------
Appendix B i 165
Commercial Buildings Integration:
Updating State Building Codes
Description: This program provides the technical assistance for implementing the energy-efficiency provisions of building codes
and applicable standards that affect residential and commercial construction. These efforts involve partnerships with federal
agencies, state and local governments, the building industry, financial institutions, utilities, public interest groups, and building
owners and users. This measure is supported by Residential Building Codes, which is part of the Residential Buildings Integration
program,- Commercial Buildings Codes, which is part of the Commercial Buildings Integration Program,- and Training and
Assistance for Codes, which is part of the Community Energy Program.
ObjeCtives:This program aims to improve the energy efficiency of the nation's new residential and commercial buildings, as well
as additions and alterations to existing commercial buildings. Within applicable residential building codes, it incorporates the
most technologically feasible, economically justified energy conservation measures. It also provides state and local governments
with the technical tools and information they need for adopting, using, and enforcing efficient building codes for residential con-
struction.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Regulatory.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and state legislatures.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program increases energy efficiency,- builds cooperation among
stakeholders,- shares information between federal and state entities,- and educates builders, consumers, and homeowners.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: The program complements DOE's efforts to develop and introduce advanced,
highly efficient building technologies.
-------
166 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Commercial Buildings Integration:
Partnerships for Commercial Buildings and Facilities
Description: This program develops and demonstrates advanced technologies, controls, and equipment in collaboration with
the design and construction community,- advances integrated technologies and practices to optimize whole-building energy per-
formance,- and helps reduce energy use in commercial multifamily buildings by promoting construction of efficient buildings and
their operation near an optimum level of performance. It also performs research on energy-efficient, sustainable, and low-cost
building envelope materials and structures. This program is supported by a number of DOE programs: Commercial Buildings
R&D, which is part of the Commercial Buildings Integration program, and Analysis Tools and Design Strategies and Building
Envelope R&D, which are parts of the Equipment, Materials, and Tools program.
Objectives: This program aims to develop high-performance building design, construction, and operation processes,- provide the
tools needed for replicating the processes and design strategies for creating high-performance buildings,- research new technolo-
gies for high-performance buildings,- define the criteria and methods for measuring building performance,- measure and document
building performance in high-profile examples,- and develop a fundamental understanding of heat, air, and moisture transfer
through building envelopes and insulation materials, and apply the results to develop construction technologies to increase build-
ing energy efficiency.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: Federal government R&D in partnership with the private sector.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program increases energy efficiency, shares information with and
educates stakeholders, builds criteria for industry use, and collects useful data. It also has environmental benefits not related to
greenhouse gases.
-------
Appendix B i 167
ENERGY STAR® for the Residential Market2
*iin«|- Ml Mi VaJm S»«iig
Description: Residential buildings account for over 18 percent of total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. Many homes could use
30 percent less energy if owners purchased efficient technologies, incorporated efficiency into home improvement projects, or
demanded an efficient home when buying a new home. EPA's ENERGY STAR® -labeled new homes, and EPAs Home Improvement
Toolkit featuring ENERGY STAR , deliver the information consumers need beyond labels on efficient products and equipment to
make these decisions.
Objective: ENERGY STAR® provides information to consumers and homeowners so that they can make sound investments when
buying a new home or when undertaking a home improvement project. This includes information on which products to pur-
chase, how to achieve a high-performing home, the current energy performance of a home, and the improved performance that
results from improvement projects.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary agreements and outreach.
Status of implementation: The ENERGY STAR® label for new homes has been available since 1995, building upon the success of
the ENERGY STAR label in a variety of product areas. The ENERGY STAR program has been underway since 1992, with the intro-
duction of the ENERGY STAR®-labeled computer. The ENERGY STAR® label is now on more than 25,000 U.S. homes that are aver-
aging energy savings of about 35 percent higher than the model energy code. Since the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report, this
residential effort has expanded significantly to home improvement projects in the existing homes market. The program now pro-
vides guidance for homeowners on designing efficiency into kitchens, additions, and whole-home improvement projects. It offers
a Web-based audit tool and a home energy benchmark tool to help homeowners get underway and monitor progress. The pro-
gram is also working with energy efficiency program partners around the country so that they can use this unbiased information
at consumer transaction points to promote energy efficiency. EPA projects the program will avoid 20 teragrams of CO2 annual-
ly by 2010.
Implementing entities: ENERGY STAR® is a national program. EPA implements this effort with partners around the country.
Costs Of policy Or measure: All costs are recovered over a period of time.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: By reducing energy demand and use, ENERGY STAR® also reduces nitro-
gen oxides and sulfur dioxide.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: ENERGY STAR® for new homes works closely with DOE's Rebuild America program.
Contact: David Lee, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-9131, lee.davidf@epa.gov.
2 Part of Action 6 in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report; continuing.
-------
168 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Community Energy Program:
Rebuild America
Rebuild America
Description: Rebuild America connects people, resources, proven ideas, and innovative practices through collaborative partner-
ships with states, small towns, large metropolitan areas, and Native American tribes, creating a large network of peer communi-
ties. The program provides one-stop shopping for information and assistance on how to plan, finance, implement, and manage
retrofit projects to improve energy efficiency. Rebuild America supports communities with access to DOE regional offices, state
energy offices, national laboratories, utilities, colleges and universities, and nonprofit agencies.
Objective: Rebuild America aims to assist states and communities in developing and implementing environmentally and eco-
nomically sound activities through smarter energy use.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, information, and education.
Status Of implementation: As of May 2001, Rebuild America had formed 340 partnerships with approximately 550 million
square feet of buildings complete or underway in all 50 states and two U.S. territories.
Implementing entities: State and local community partnerships with the federal government.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: Rebuild America expands knowledge and technology base through edu-
cation, improves energy efficiency, promotes private—public cooperation and information sharing, creates peer networks, pre-
serves historic buildings, builds new facilities, retrofits existing buildings, stimulates economic development, promotes
community development, and avoids urban sprawl.
Interaction with Other policy Or measure: Rebuild America helps to promote many of the resources made available by other
DOE programs, such as Updating State Building Codes and ENERGY STAR®.
-------
Appendix B i 169
Residential Building Integration: Energy Partnerships
for Affordable Housing (Building America)
Description: The Residential Buildings Integration program operates Energy Partnerships for Affordable Housing. This new pro-
gram consolidates the formerly separate systems-engineering programs of Building America, Industrialized Housing, Passive
Solar Buildings, Indoor Air Quality, and existing building research into a comprehensive program. Systems-integration research
and development activities analyze building components and systems and integrate them so that the overall building perform-
ance is greater than the sum of its parts. Building America is a private-public partnership that provides energy solutions for pro-
duction housing and combines the knowledge and resources of industry leaders with DOE's technical capabilities to act as a
catalyst for change in the home building industry.
Objective: This program aims to accelerate the introduction of highly efficient building technologies and practices through
research and development of advanced systems for production builders.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, research, and education.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and private industry partners.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program increases energy efficiency, and software and information
sharing,- incorporates renewable resources and distributed generation,- improves builder productivity,- reduces construction time,-
provides new product opportunities to manufacturers and suppliers,- and promotes teamwork within the segmented building
industry.
-------
170 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
ENERGY STAR "-Labeled Products3
^uw$' tell AJi feu'ry
Description: Many homeowners and businesses could use 30 percent less energy, without sacrificing services or comfort, by
investing in energy efficiency. Introduced by EPA in 1992 for computers, the ENERGY STAR label has been expanded to more
than 30 product categories. Since the mid-1990s, EPA has collaborated with DOE, which now has responsibility for certain prod-
uct categories. The ENERGY STAR® label is now recognized by more than 40 percent of U.S. consumers, who have purchased over
600 million ENERGY STAR® products. The program has developed a strong partnership with business, representing over 1,600
manufacturers with more than 11,000 ENERGY STAR®-labeled products.
Objective: The ENERGY STAR® label is used to distinguish energy-efficient products in the marketplace so that businesses and
consumers can easily purchase these products, save money on energy bills, and avoid air pollution.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary agreement.
Status Of implementation: The program's strategy has evolved substantially since the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report, not only
with its addition of new products to the ENERGY STAR® family, but also with its expanded outreach to consumers in partnership
with their local utility or similar organization. ENERGY STAR® works in partnership with utilities, representing about 50 percent
of U.S. energy customers. To date, more than 600 million ENERGY STAR®-labeled products have been purchased. EPA estimates
that the program avoided 33 teragrams of CO2 in 2000 and projects it will reduce 75 teragrams of CO2 in 2010.
Implementing entities: ENERGY STAR® is a national program. EPA and DOE implement the ENERGY STAR® label on products with
partners across the country.
Costs Of policy Or measure: All costs are recovered over a period of time.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: By reducing energy demand and use, ENERGY STAR® also reduces nitro-
gen oxides and sulfur dioxide.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: ENERGY STAR® is implemented in concert with the minimum efficiency standards
developed by DOE, where those standards exist, such as with household appliances and heating and cooling equipment.
Contact: Rachel Schmeltz, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-9124, schmeltz.rachel@epa.gov
3 Part of Action 6 in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report; continuing.
-------
Appendix B i 171
Building Equipment, Materials, and Tools:
Superwindow Collaborative
Description: The Superwindow Collaborative develops commercially viable, advanced electrochromic windows and
Superwindows for competing producers. These programs intend to reward industry through market mechanisms for their invest-
ments in the research, development, and deployment of energy-efficient windows. In an area that is less suited to national stan-
dards and that has a growing international market, significant investments are required to establish a technical basis for
performance standards recognized for their scientific excellence. The Superwindow Collaborative is supported by two DOE pro-
grams—Building Envelope: Electrochromic Windows and Building Envelope: Superwindows—both of which are part of DOE's
Equipment, Materials, and Tools program.
Objectives: The Superwindow Collaborative aims to change windows from net energy loss centers to net energy savers across
the United States,- to strengthen the market position of U.S. industry in global markets,- and to provide building owners cost-
effective savings, a more comfortable building climate, and possible productivity improvements.
Gr66nhoUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: Federal government R&D in partnership with the private sector. The electrochromic participants include
two national laboratories and four industrial partners. Supporting research on materials, durability, and energy performance is
performed at DOE's national laboratories.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The Superwindow Collaborative increases economic competitiveness,
energy efficiency, and building climate comfort, and provides possible productivity improvements for buildings.
-------
172 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Building Equipment, Materials, and Tools:
Lighting Partnerships
Description: Lighting Partnerships supports research and development in three areas:
» Advanced light sources, consisting of research that is heavily cost-shared with industry to advance lighting technology,
with the goal of developing replacements for the inefficient incandescent lamp. The program supports improvements in
compact fluorescent lamps and in new lamps using improved incandescent, fluorescent, high-intensity-discharge, and elec-
trode-less technologies.
* Lighting fixtures, controls, and distribution systems consisting of cost-shared research on lighting controls in commercial
buildings and light fixtures for advanced light sources, primarily compact fluorescent lamps.
» The impact of lighting on vision, consisting of industry cost-shared research on outdoor lighting.
Objectives: The program aims to develop and accelerate the introduction of advanced lighting technologies and to make solid-
state lighting more efficient than conventional sources and more easily integrated into building systems. Additional goals are to
develop lighting technologies that last for 20,000 to 100,000 hours and to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from
coal-fired power plants.
Gr66nhoUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: Lighting Partnerships is a federal research and development program that collaborates with manufac-
turers, utilities, user groups, and trade and professional organizations.
-------
Appendix B i 173
Building Equipment, Materials, and Tools:
Partnerships for Commercial Buildings and Facilities
Description: This program develops and demonstrates advanced technologies, controls, and equipment in collaboration with
the design and construction community,- advances integrated technologies and practices to optimize whole-building energy per-
formance,- and helps reduce energy use in commercial multifamily buildings by promoting the construction of efficient buildings
and their operation near an optimum level of performance. It also performs research on energy-efficient, sustainable, and low-
cost building-envelope materials and structures. The program is supported by a number of DOE programs, including Commercial
Buildings R&D, which is part of the Commercial Buildings Integration program,- and Analysis Tools and Design Strategies and
Building Envelope R&D, which are parts of the Equipment, Materials, and Tools program.
ObjeCtives:This program aims to develop high-performance building design, construction, and operation processes,- provide the
tools needed for replicating the processes and design strategies for creating high-performance buildings,- research new technolo-
gies for high-performance buildings,- define the criteria and methods for measuring building performance,- measure and document
building performance in high-profile examples,- and develop a fundamental understanding of heat, air, and moisture transfer
through building envelopes and insulation materials, and apply the results to develop construction technologies to increase build-
ing energy efficiency.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: Federal government R&D in partnership with the private sector.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program increases energy efficiency, shares information with and
educates stakeholders, builds criteria for industry use, and collects useful data. It also has environmental benefits not related to
greenhouse gases.
-------
174 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Building Equipment, Materials, and Tools:
Collaborative Research and Development
Description: This program researches, develops, and commercializes food display and storage technologies that use less energy
and less refrigerant,- new, super-efficient electric dryers,- low-cost, high-reliability heat pump water heaters,- and energy-efficient
heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. It also brings new products to market and provides an independent third-party
evaluation of highly efficient products. The Space Conditioning and Refrigeration program and the Appliances and Emerging
Technologies program are part of the Equipment, Materials, and Tools program.
Objectives: This program aims to develop and promote the use of low-cost, energy-efficient equipment, materials, and tools.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: State and local partnerships with the federal government.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program promotes energy efficiency, evaluates energy-efficient
products and accelerates their commercialization, and improves economic competitiveness and data collection.
-------
Appendix B i 175
Residential Appliance Standards
Description: Administered by DOE's Office of Codes and Standards, the Residential Appliance Standards program periodical-
ly reviews and updates efficiency standards for most major household appliances.
Objective: The program's standards aim to ensure that American consumers receive a minimum practical energy efficiency for
every appliance they buy.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Regulatory.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and other federal entities. DOE promulgates revised or new regulations, while the Federal Trade
Commission prescribes the labeling rules for residential appliances.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The program enhances energy security, increases competitiveness and
reliability, and improves energy efficiency.
-------
176 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
State and Community Assistance: State Energy Program;
Weatherization Assistance Program; Community Energy
Grants; Information Outreach
Description: Several programs and initiatives support DOE's State and Community Assistance efforts:
* The State Energy Program provides a supportive framework with sufficient flexibility to enable the states to address their
energy priorities in concert with national priorities, and supports the federal-state partnerships that are crucial to energy
policy development and energy technology deployment.
» The Weatherization Assistance Program provides cost-effective, energy-efficiency services to low-income constituencies who
otherwise could not afford these services and who stand to benefit greatly from the cost savings of energy-efficient tech-
nologies.
* The Community Energy Grants program provides funding to competitively selected communities to support community-wide
energy projects that improve energy efficiency and implement sustainable building design and operation concepts.
» The Information Outreach program helps to conceptualize, plan, and implement a systematic approach to marketing and
communication objectives and evaluation.
Objectives:7he objectives of DOE's State and Community Assistance efforts are based on the combined objectives of its major
programs and initiatives:
» State Energy-. To maximize energy, environmental, and economic benefits through increased collaboration at the federal,
state, and community levels,- to increase market acceptance of energy-efficient and renewable-energy technologies, prac-
tices, and products,- and to use innovative approaches to reach market segments and meet policy goals not typically
addressed by market-based solutions.
» Weatherization: To develop new weatherization technologies, further application of best methods and practices throughout
the national weatherization network, leverage and integrate weatherization with other energy efficiency resources, and
demonstrate program effectiveness.
» Community Energy Grants-. To save energy, create jobs, promote growth, and protect the environment.
» Information Outreach-. To provide technical assistance needed to conduct the various planned activities that will educate tar-
get audiences,- to follow strategic plan goals and support long-term success in developing energy-efficient systems and
processes,- to improve technology-transfer and information-exchange processes,- and to emphasize partnering with strate-
gic allies, communications, education and training, and information support.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Economic, information.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: States and local communities through partnerships with the federal government. For example, DOE
makes grants to states through its Weatherization Assistance Program, which in turn awards grants to local agencies—usually
community action agencies or other nonprofit or government organizations—to perform the actual weatherization services.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: These programs enhance energy efficiency,- create jobs and boost eco-
nomic development,- have non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits,- increase collaboration at federal, state, and local levels,-
provide health benefits,- educate consumers,- promote technology transfer to industry,- and provide training.
-------
Appendix B i 177
Heat Island Reduction Initiative4
HEAT ISLAND REDUCTION
INITIATIVE
Description: This initiative is a multi-agency effort to work with communities and state and local officials to reduce the impacts
of urban heat islands. It promotes common-sense measures, such as planting shade trees, installing reflective roofs, and using
light-colored pavements to reduce ambient temperature, ozone pollution, cooling energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions.
This initiative also supports research to quantify the air quality, health, and energy-saving benefits of measures for reducing the
impacts of urban heat islands.
Objective: The program's objective is to work with state and local governments to reverse the effects of urban heat islands by
encouraging the widespread use of mitigation strategies.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, information exchange, and research.
Status of implementation: The program was redesigned in 1997 and is currently ongoing. EPA performs research on the up-
front costs, potential savings, and options for reflective surfaces, to assist with implementing measures for reducing the demands
of heat islands. In addition, information on the air quality benefits may allow states to incorporate these measures into their air
quality plans. Pilot projects have been established in five cities that have agreed to assist with research and work to implement
the measures. For example, several cities in Utah have implemented ordinances with measures for reducing the impacts of urban
heat islands. And California's state legislature and governor have authorized using over $24 million for measures to reduce peak
summer heat island demand for electricity.
Implementing entities: EPA, in partnership with state and local governments.
Costs Of policy Or measure: Reflective surfaces are generally implemented during new construction or when replacing old
materials. While initial costs are comparable between nonreflective and reflective surfaces, cost savings can be expected when
evaluating life-cycle costs (as energy savings and reduced maintenance are considered).
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The program's measures can reduce emissions of volatile organic com-
pounds and nitrogen oxides due to reduced energy use and ambient temperatures. Lower temperatures may also help reduce
ozone concentrations due to the heat-dependent reaction that forms this pollutant. In addition, energy savings can be expected
from implementing heat-island reduction measures.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: The program interacts with the ENERGY STAR® Roofs Program and state imple-
mentation plans.
Contact: Niko Dietsch, EPA, Global Programs Division, (202) 564-3479, dietsch.nikolaas@epa.gov.
4 Action 9 in the 1997 Lf.S. Climate Action Report; continuing.
-------
178 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Economic Incentives/Tax Credits
Description: Current law provides a 10 percent business energy investment tax credit for qualifying equipment that uses solar
energy to generate electricity, to heat or cool, to provide hot water for use in a structure, or to provide solar process heat. No
credit is available for nonbusiness purchases of solar energy equipment. The Administration is proposing a new tax credit for
individuals of photovoltaic equipment and solar water-heating systems for use in a dwelling that the individual uses as a resi-
dence. Equipment would qualify for the credit only if used exclusively for purposes other than heating swimming pools. An indi-
vidual would be allowed a cumulative maximum credit of $2,000 per residence for photovoltaic equipment and $2,000 per
residence for solar water-heating systems. The credit for solar water-heating equipment would apply only if placed in service
after December 31, 2001, and before January 1, 2006, and to photovoltaic systems placed in service after December 31, 2001,
and before January 1, 2008.
Objective: This proposed tax credit aims to expand the future market of residential solar energy systems.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Economic.
Status Of implementation: This measure is in the proposal stage.
-------
Appendix B i 179
Energy: Industrial
Industries of the Future
Description: Industries of the Future creates partnerships among industry, government, and supporting laboratories and institu-
tions to accelerate technology research, development, and deployment. Led by DOE's Office of Industrial Technologies, this
strategy is being implemented in nine energy- and waste-intensive industries. Two key elements of the strategy include an indus-
try-driven document outlining each industry's vision for the future, and a technology roadmap to identify the technologies that
will be needed to reach that industry's goals.
Objective: This strategy aims to help nine key energy-intensive industries reduce their energy consumption while remaining
competitive and economically strong.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, research, and information.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: Partnerships among industry, government, and supporting laboratories and institutions.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This strategy enhances economic security and energy efficiency, allows
for competitive restructuring, has non-GHG environmental benefits, forms cooperative alliances, increases productivity, and dis-
seminates information.
-------
180 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Best Practices Program
Description: This initiative of DOE's Office of Industrial Technologies offers industry the tools to improve plant energy effi-
ciency, enhance environmental performance, and increase productivity. Selected best-of-class large demonstration plants are
showcased across the country, while other program activities encourage the replication of these best practices in still larger num-
bers of large plants.
Objective: Best Practices is designed to change the ways industrial plant managers make decisions affecting energy use by motors
and drives, compressed air, steam, combustion systems, and other plant utilities.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, information.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and industrial partners.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: Best Practices enhances economic security and energy efficiency, has
non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, increases productivity and industry cooperation, and disseminates knowledge.
-------
Appendix B i 181
ENERGY STAR® for Industry (Climate Wise)5
Mamf tartl All Vajim
Description: Nearly one-third of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions result from industrial activities. The primary source of these
emissions is the burning of carbon-based fuels, either on site in manufacturing plants or through the purchase of generated elec-
tricity. Recently, ENERGY STAR® and Climate Wise were integrated under ENERGY STAR® to compose a more comprehensive part-
nership for industrial companies. Through established energy performance benchmarks, strategies for improving energy
performance, technical assistance, and recognition for accomplishing reductions in energy, the partnership contributes to a
reduction in energy use for the U.S. industrial sector.
Objectives: ENERGY STAR® enables industrial companies to evaluate and cost-effectively reduce their energy use. This reduction,
in turn, results in decreased carbon dioxide emissions when carbon-based fuels are the source of that energy.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Types Of policy Or measure: Voluntary agreement.
Status Of implementation: This program has been underway since 1994 with the launch of Climate Wise. In 2000, ENERGY
STAR®and the Climate Wise Partnership were integrated to provide the industrial sector with a more comprehensive set of indus-
trial benchmarking and technical assistance tools. The partnership currently has more than 500 industrial partners representing
a large share of energy use in the industrial sector. EPA estimates that the program avoided 11 teragrams of CO2 in emissions in
2000 and projects reductions of 16 teragrams of CO2 in 2010.
Implementing entities: The partnership is primarily a national program, managed by EPA. State and local governments volun-
tarily participate by promoting the program to industries within their jurisdictions.
Costs Of policy Or measure: Costs are defined as the monetary expenses necessary for an industrial participant to implement
the program. Participants evaluate the cost-effective opportunities for energy performance and complete adjustments to their
operation. While an initial outlay of funds is possible, these costs are recovered over a period of time.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The burning of fossil fuels creates airborne pollutants, including nitro-
gen oxides and sulfur dioxide. By reducing energy demand and use, ENERGY STAR® helps to decrease emissions of these pollu-
tants.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: ENERGY STAR® is the only national program that offers industrial companies the
ability to evaluate and minimize energy use through established energy performance benchmarks, strategies, and technical assis-
tance. ENERGY STAR complements programs managed by DOE. DOE oversees partnerships with nine energy-intensive indus-
trial sectors to accelerate technology research, development, and deployment, with a goal of reducing energy use and the
environmental impacts of these industries. DOE also manages a program to improve a plant's technical systems, or components
of a plant, including the motors, steam, compressed air, combined heat and power, and process heat. ENERGY STAR® complements
these programs with a system for evaluating plant-wide energy performance.
Contact: Elizabeth Dutrow, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-9061, dutrow.elizabeth@epa.gov.
5 Foundation action 9 in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report; continuing.
-------
182 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Industrial Assessment Centers
Description: Teams of engineering faculty and students from 26 universities around the country conduct free comprehensive
energy audits or industrial assessments and provide recommendations to eligible small and medium-sized manufacturers to help
them identify opportunities to improve productivity, reduce waste, and save energy.
Objectives: The assessments aim to improve energy efficiency and productivity, minimize waste, and prevent pollution.
Gr66ntlOUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, information, and education.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and universities.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The program has non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, improves
energy efficiency, economic productivity, and competitiveness,- encourages public-private-sector interaction and cooperation
and information sharing within industry,- provides student educational experience,- and collects industry data for industry progress
assessments, thereby enabling the quantification of the state of energy, waste, and productivity management in small and medi-
um-sized industries.
-------
Appendix B i 183
Enabling Technologies:
Industrial Materials for the Future
Description: DOE's Industrial Materials for the Future program is the combination of the Advanced Industrial Materials and
Continuous Fiber Ceramic Composite programs. The new program focuses on areas that offer major improvements in energy
efficiency and emission reductions across all industries.
Objective: Consistent with the mission of DOE's Office of Industrial Technologies, this program's mission is to lead a national
effort to research, design, develop, engineer, and test new and improved materials for the Industries of the Future.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Types of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and industry partners.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program reduces emissions of non-greenhouse gas pollutants,-
improves energy efficiency, economic productivity, and competitiveness,- encourages public-private-sector interaction and coop-
eration,- and facilitates information sharing within industry.
-------
184 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Financial Assistance: NICE3
(National Industrial Competitiveness through
Energy, Environment, & Economics)
Description: Sponsored by DOE's Office of Industrial Technologies, NICE3 is an innovative, cost-sharing grant program that
provides funding to state and industry partnerships (large and small businesses) for projects that develop and demonstrate
advances in energy efficiency and clean production technologies.
Objectives: The NICE3 program was authorized to improve the energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness of pollution prevention
technologies and processes, including source-reduction and waste-minimization technologies and processes. It also aims to
advance the global competitiveness of U.S. industry.
Gr66ntlOUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: State agencies, industry, and universities.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The NICE3 program increases economic production, energy efficiency,
industry competitiveness, and cooperation between the public and private sectors. It also has non-greenhouse gas environmen-
tal benefits.
-------
Appendix B i 185
Energy: Supply
Renewable Energy Commercialization:
Wind; Solar; Geothermal; Biopower
Description: DOE's Office of Power Technologies maintains several programs on individual renewable energy technologies,
including wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass. Renewable technologies use naturally occurring energy sources to produce elec-
tricity, heat, fuel, or a combination of these energy types.
Objectives: The program aims to develop clean, competitive power technologies,- to diversify the nation's energy supply port-
folio,- to use abundant domestic resources,- to help the nation meet its commitments to curb greenhouse gas emissions,- and to
achieve tax incentives for renewable energy production and use.
Gr66ntlOUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, regulatory.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and industry partners.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The program enhances the nation's energy and economic security,- has
non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits,- builds energy infrastructure,- creates jobs,- increases industrial competitiveness and
energy reliability,- and diversifies the nation's energy portfolio.
-------
186 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Climate Challenge
Description: The Climate Challenge program is a joint, voluntary effort of DOE and the electric utility industry to reduce,
avoid, or sequester greenhouse gases. Utilities, in partnership with DOE, developed individual agreements to identify and
implement cost-effective activities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Electric utility trade associations are active in pro-
moting the program and in developing industry-wide initiatives. Details on the program are available at
http://www.eren.doe.gov/climatechallenge/.
Objective: Established as a Foundation Action under the 1993 Climate Change Action Plan, Climate Challenge persuaded
electric utilities to develop Participation Accords with DOE. These individual agreements identified cost-effective
activities for the utility to implement, with the goal of reducing emissions in 2000. Each utility must annually report its
results to DOE's Energy Information Administration Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/frntvrgg.html), consistent with the voluntary reporting of greenhouse gas emission guidelines
developed under Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Reductions will continue to be reported beyond 2000.
Greenhouse gases affected: Primarily carbon dioxide, but also other greenhouse gases, such as methane and sulfur hexafluo-
ride. Carbon dioxide activities include both reductions in emissions and increases in carbon sequestration.
Type Of policy Or measure: DOE and the individual utilities sign Voluntary Participation Accords (or Letters of Participation
for smaller utilities), describing the utilities' commitments in the form of specific projects, entity-wide actions, and/or industry-
wide initiatives.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: The program is a joint, voluntary effort between the electric utility industry and the DOE. Parameters
of the Climate Challenge program were defined in a 1994 Memorandum of Understanding between DOE and all the national
utility trade associations.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from Climate Challenge proj-
ects often results in a concurrent reduction in sulfur dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and other emissions associated with fossil fuel
combustion. Other projects have reduced landfill requirements by recycling and reusing coal combustion by-products and other
materials. Participating utilities have indicated that corporate learning about climate change and mitigation opportunities has
been a significant benefit of the program. Climate Challenge has helped shift the thinking of electric utility management and
strategic planners to include the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions into their corporate culture and philosophy.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: As a Foundation Action under the 1993 Climate Change Action Plan, Climate
Challenge was designed as a platform from which participating utilities could undertake a broad range of activities (individually,
through industry-wide initiatives, and through other federal voluntary programs. In addition, Climate Challenge utilities agree
to report their results annually to DOE's Energy Information Administration, consistent with the voluntary reporting of green-
house gas emission guidelines developed under Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992.
-------
Appendix B i 187
Distributed Energy Resources
Description: This program directs and coordinates a diverse portfolio of research and development, consolidating programs and
staff from across DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy related to the development and deployment of dis-
tributed energy resources (DER). It focuses on technology development and the elimination of regulatory and institutional bar-
riers to the use of DER, including interconnection to the utility grid and environmental siting and permitting. DER partners with
industry to apply a wide array of technologies and integration strategies for on-site use, as well as for grid-enhancing systems.
Successful deployment of DER technologies affects the industrial, commercial, institutional, and residential sectors of our econ-
omy—in effect, all aspects of the energy value chain.
Objectives: This program aims to develop a cleaner, more reliable, and affordable U.S. energy resource portfolio to reduce pol-
lution and greenhouse gas emissions,- enhance electric grid operations,- boost local economic development,- and increase energy
and economic efficiency.
Greenhouse gases dffected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, information, education, and regulatory.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE, industry.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program has non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, improves
energy reliability, reduces the strain on the electric grid infrastructure, allows energy choices among consumers (creating a more
dynamic energy market), and hedges against peak power prices.
-------
188 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
High-Temperature Superconductivity
Description: This program investigates the properties of crystalline materials that become free of electrical resistance at the tem-
perature of liquid nitrogen. The lack of resistance makes possible electrical power systems with super-efficient generators, trans-
formers, and transmission cables that reduce energy losses associated with electricity transmission.
Objectives: The next few years may see the beginning of the widespread utilization of superconductivity technologies. This pro-
gram leads the DOE research and development effort geared toward making this happen. It supports aggressive projects to design
advanced electrical applications. The industry-led Second-Generation Wire Development exploits breakthroughs at national lab-
oratories that promise unprecedented current-carrying capacity.
Gr66ntlOUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Types of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE, industry.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program has non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, such as
reducing SOx emissions,- improves energy reliability,- reduces strain on the electric grid infrastructure,- cuts transmission losses by
half,- and allows electrical equipment to be reduced in size dramatically (which opens more potential site applications).
-------
Appendix B 189
Hydrogen Program
Description: This program has four strategies to carry out its objective: (1) expand the use of hydrogen in the near term by work-
ing with industry, including hydrogen producers, to improve efficiency, lower emissions, and lower the cost of technologies that
produce hydrogen from natural gas for distributed filling stations,- (2) work with fuel cell manufacturers to develop hydrogen-
based electricity storage and generation systems that will enhance the introduction and penetration of distributed, renewable-
energy-based utility systems,- (3) coordinate with the Department of Defense and DOE's Office of Transportation Technologies
to demonstrate safe and cost-effective fueling systems for hydrogen vehicles in urban nonattainment areas and to provide
onboard hydrogen storage systems,- and (4) work with the national laboratories to lower the cost of technologies that produce
hydrogen directly from sunlight and water.
Objective: The program's mission is to enhance and support the development of cost-competitive hydrogen technologies and
systems that will reduce the environmental impacts of energy use and enable the penetration of renewable energy into the U.S.
energy mix.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, education.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE, industry, and national laboratories.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program has non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, develops
new infrastructure, creates jobs, enhances the nation's energy and economic security, diversifies the nation's energy portfolio, and
expands our technology base.
-------
190 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Clean Energy Initiative: ^ ^jj OLJD
Green Power Partnership; S^JS^T t^^nf^
Combined Heat and Power Partnership <&EPA PSWER^NERSH^P
Description: Increased economic growth has been fueled in large part by energy produced from fossil fuels, with the unintend-
ed consequence of increased air pollution and an increased threat of climate change. EPAs Clean Energy Initiative is designed to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with the energy supply sector by promoting available technologies. EPAs strategy
includes: (1) increasing corporate and institutional demand for renewable energy, (2) facilitating combined heat and power
(CHP) and other clean "distributed generation" technologies in targeted markets, and (3) working with state and local govern-
ments to develop policies that favor clean energy.
EPAs Green Power Partnership works with businesses and other institutions to facilitate bulk purchases of renewable energy. This
involves setting green power standards, providing recognition, and quantifying the environmental benefits. EPAs CHP Partner-
ship targets candidate sites in key state markets, and provides these facilities with information about the benefits of CHP, as well
as technical assistance. The Policy Team produces a database that quantifies the environmental impacts of power generation,
along with other policy tools to help reduce the environmental impacts of electricity generation.
Objective: The Clean Energy Initiative will focus on the energy supply sector, as well as industrial, commercial, and residential
energy customers. The approach will aim to remove market barriers to the increased penetration of cleaner, more efficient ener-
gy supply through education, technical assistance, demonstration, and partnerships.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary agreement, education, and technical assistance.
Status of implementation: This effort is currently being implemented. EPA will conduct annual reviews of the program's per-
formance at the end of each calendar year. EPA projects the program will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 30 teragrams
of CO2 in 2010.
Implementing entity: EPA.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This initiative will reduce criteria air pollutants, which contribute to local
and regional air quality problems, and will reduce land and water impacts due to the decrease in fossil fuel use.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: This initiative requires interaction with ongoing initiatives at DOE, particular-
ly efforts to commercialize renewable energy and CHP technologies. DOE will continue to play the lead role in research and
development and performance benchmarking, while EPA will primarily be involved with market transformation activities for
these technologies.
Contact: Tom Kerr, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-0047, kerr.tom@epa.gov.
-------
Appendix B i 191
Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization
Description: The Nuclear Energy Plant Optimization (NEPO) program conducts scientific and engineering research to devel-
op advanced technologies to manage the aging of nuclear plants. The cost-shared program is part of a comprehensive approach
to ensure that the United States has the technological capability to produce adequate supplies of baseload electricity while min-
imizing greenhouse gas emissions and other harmful environmental impacts. Details on the NEPO program are available at
http ://nuclear. gov.
Objective: The program aims to ensure that current U.S. nuclear power plants can continue to deliver adequate and affordable
energy supplies up to and beyond their initial license period by resolving critical issues related to long-term plant aging and by
developing advanced technologies for improving plant reliability, availability, and productivity.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, information.
Status Of implementation: DOE began the NEPO program in fiscal year 2000 and continues to initiate cooperative R&D proj-
ects, which are identified through input from electric utilities, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and other stakeholders.
Implementing entities: The program is a cost-shared partnership between the nuclear industry and the federal government.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The NEPO program and other nuclear energy R&D programs conduct-
ed by DOE support the goal in the President's National Energy Polity of increasing the development and use of nuclear power as
non-greenhouse gas-emitting source of electricity for the nation.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: Operation of existing nuclear power plants annually avoids emissions of over
150 teragrams of carbon dioxide, five million tons of sulfur dioxide, and 2.4 million tons of nitrogen oxides. Continued opera-
tion of existing nuclear plants through their original license term and a 20-year renewed license term would partly mitigate the
need to build more baseload power plants.
-------
192 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Development of Next-Generation Nuclear Energy Systems:
Nuclear Energy Research Initiative; Generation IV Initiative
support for next-generation nuclear energy systems comes primarily from two programs: the Nuclear Energy
Research Initiative (NERI) and the Generation IV Initiative (Gen-IV). Complete details on the Gen-IV and NERI programs are
available at http://nuclear.gov.
Objectives: NERI is funding small-scale research efforts on promising advanced nuclear energy system concepts, in areas that
will promote novel next-generation, proliferation-resistant reactor designs, advanced nuclear fuel development, and fundamen-
tal nuclear science. In the future, there is likely to be NERI research in the use of nuclear energy to produce hydrogen fuel for
fuel cells.
The present focus of Gen-IV is on the preparation of a technology roadmap that will set forth a plan for research, development,
and demonstration of the most promising next-generation advanced reactor concepts. These reactor designs hold high potential
for meeting the needs for economic, emission-free, sustainable power generation. R&D will be conducted to increase fuel life-
time, recycle used nuclear fuel, establish or improve material compatibility, improve safety performance, reduce system cost,
effectively incorporate passive safety features, enhance system reliability, and achieve a high degree of proliferation resistance.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, information.
Status Of implementation: As ongoing programs, both the NERI and Gen-IV initiatives are under implementation.
Implementing entities: NERI features a cooperative, peer-reviewed selection process to fund researcher-initiated R&D propos-
als from universities, national laboratories, and industry. The Gen-IV program is an international effort, in which the United
States and other member countries of the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) are jointly developing nuclear energy sys-
tems that offer advantages in the areas of economics, safety, reliability, and sustainability and that could be deployed commer-
cially by 2030. A major advantage of this arrangement is that funding for the projects is leveraged among the GIF member
countries.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits of policy or measure: With the NERI and Gen-IV programs, DOE is addressing issues that will
enable the expanded use of nuclear energy. For the longer term, the DOE believes that Gen-IV nuclear energy and fuel cycle
technologies can play a vital role in fulfilling the nation's long-term energy needs. Growing concerns for the environment will
favor energy sources that can satisfy the need for electricity and other energy-intensive products on a sustainable basis with min-
imal environmental impact.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures." The Gen-IV and NERI programs, and other nuclear energy R&D programs con-
ducted by DOE, support the goal stated in the President's National Energy Policy of increasing the development and use of nuclear
power as a non-greenhouse gas-emitting source of electricity for the nation.
-------
Appendix B i 193
Support Deployment of New Nuclear
Power Plants in the United States
Description: To cope with U.S. near-term needs for nuclear energy, DOE organized a Near-Term Deployment Group (NTDG).
The group was tasked with developing a Near-Term Deployment Roadmap ("NTD Roadmap") that would provide conclusions
and recommendations to facilitate deployment of new nuclear plants in the United States by 2010. Implementation of these rec-
ommendations will be realized through DOE's Nuclear Energy Technologies Program—Nuclear Power 2010.
Objectives: The NTD Roadmap provides DOE and the nuclear industry with the basis for a plan to ensure the availability of
near-term nuclear energy options that can be in operation in the United States by 2010. It focuses on making available by 2010
a range of competitive, NRC-certified and/or ready to construct nuclear energy generation options of a range of sizes to meet
variations in market need.
The NTD Roadmap identifies the technological, regulatory, and institutional gaps and issues that need to be addressed for new
nuclear plants to be deployed in the United States in this time frame. It also identifies specific designs that could be deployed
by 2010, along with the actions and resources needed to ensure their availability.
Gr66ntlOUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type of policy or measure: Information.
Status of implementation: The NTDG submitted the NTD Roadmap to DOE on October 31, 2001. The Nuclear Energy
Research Advisory Committee unanimously endorsed the NTD Roadmap recommendations on November 6, 2001.
Implementing entities: As part of the Nuclear Energy Technologies Program, DOE NE-20 has been in working in collabora-
tion with industry and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to implement near-term needs identified by the NTDG during fiscal
year 2001. Fiscal year 2002 activities include continued DOE/industry cost-shared projects to demonstrate the Early Site
Permitting process, support advanced gas-cooled reactor fuel qualification and testing, and conduct preliminary advanced reac-
tor technology R&D recommended in the NTD Roadmap.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The deployment of new nuclear power plants could substantially resolve
the growing U.S. energy supply deficit. It would also provide for an appropriate and secure energy mix that could help achieve
Clean Air Act requirements without harming the U.S. economy.
Interaction with Other policies or measures: The NTD Roadmap supports the goal stated in the President's National Energy
Policy of increasing the development and use of nuclear power as a non-greenhouse gas-emitting source of electricity for the
nation.
-------
194 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Carbon Sequestration
Description: This program develops strategies for the removal of carbon dioxide from man-made emissions or the atmosphere,-
the safe, essentially permanent storage of carbon dioxide or other carbon compounds,- and the reuse of carbon dioxide through
chemical or biological conversion to value-added products. The program has five major components: separation and capture,
ocean storage, storage in terrestrial ecosystems, storage in geological formations, and conversion and utilization.
Objectives: The primary objectives of the carbon sequestration program are to lower the cost of capturing carbon dioxide, to
ensure that the storage of carbon dioxide in geological formations is safe and environmentally secure, and to enhance the pro-
ductivity and storage of carbon in terrestrial systems.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type of policy or measure: Research.
Status of implementation: Terrestrial sequestration is underway, and field experiments in geological sequestration are imminent.
Implementing entities: Federal government R&D in partnership with private sector.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program increases the production of oil and natural gas (geological
sequestration), reclaims poorly managed lands, and prevents soil erosion and stream sedimentation (terrestrial sequestration).
-------
Appendix B 195
Hydropower Program
Description: DOE's Hydropower Program develops, conducts, and coordinates hydropower research and development with
industry and other federal agencies. Hydropower is a mature technology and has long provided a significant contribution to the
national energy supply. Hydropower research today centers on boosting the efficiency of existing hydropower facilities, includ-
ing incremental hydropower gains. In addition, the program works on developing advanced turbines that reduce fish mortality,
use improved sensor technology to understand conditions inside operating turbines, improve compliance with federal water qual-
ity standards, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Objective: This program aims to improve the technical, societal, and environmental benefits of hydropower.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, information.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE, other federal agencies, and industry partners. DOE's Office of Biopower and Hydropower
Technologies administers the program through the DOE Idaho Operations Office.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program has non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, improves
power reliability, and increases the nation's energy security.
-------
196 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
International Programs
Description: DOE's International Programs fall under the Office of Technology Access, which promotes exports of renewable
energy and energy-efficient products and services and facilitates private-sector infrastructure development to support the deliv-
ery and maintenance of these technologies worldwide. The office also provides these same information and technical assistance
services to Native Americans on a government-to-government basis.
Objectives: The International Programs aim to service DOE's many Memoranda of Understanding on international energy
issues, provide diplomatic and technical assistance to the White House and State Department, and establish a framework to assist
Native American governments.
Gr66ntlOUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type of policy or measure: Outreach, education.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE, industry, other government agencies, and international government and nongovernment agen-
cies.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program has non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, such as
reducing SOx emissions,- improves energy reliability,- and educates the public internationally on the benefits of energy efficiency
and renewable energy and all the benefits associated with overall energy efficiency and renewable energies.
-------
Appendix B 197
Economic Incentives/Tax Credits
Description: Current law provides taxpayers a 1.5 cent-per-kilowatt-hour (adjusted for inflation after 1992) tax credit for elec-
tricity produced from wind, "closed-loop" biomass, and poultry waste. Biomass refers to trees, crops, and agricultural wastes used
to produce power, fuels, or chemicals. The electricity must be sold to an unrelated third party, and the credit applies to the first
10 years of production. The current tax credit covers facilities placed in service before January 1, 2002, after which it expires.
The new proposal would:
* Extend for three years the 1.5 cent-per-kilowatt-hour biomass credit for facilities placed in service before July 1, 2005.
» Expand the definition of eligible biomass to include certain forest-related resources and agricultural and other sources for
facilities placed in service before January 1, 2002. Electricity produced at such facilities from newly eligible sources would
be eligible for the credit only from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2004. The credit for electricity from newly eli-
gible sources would be computed at a rate equal to 60 percent of the generally applicable rate. And the credit for electric-
ity produced from newly eligible biomass co-fired in coal plants would be computed at a rate equal to 30 percent of the
generally applicable rate.
* In the case of a wind or biomass facility operated by a lessee, the proposal would permit the lessee, rather than the owner,
to claim the credit. This rule would apply to production under the leases entered into after the date on which the proposal
is enacted.
Objective: These tax credits aim to accelerate the market penetration of wind- and biomass-based electric generators.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and carbon monoxide.
Type of policy or measure: Economic.
Status of implementation: These tax credits are in the proposal stage.
-------
198 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Transportation
FreedomCAR Research Partnership ^
Description: This partnership seeks to substantially improve vehicle fuel efficiency and reduce carbon emissions associated with
cars, light trucks, and sport-utility vehicles. FreedomCAR focuses on the long-term, high-risk research needed to achieve a vision
of emission- and petroleum-free passenger vehicles, without sacrificing freedom of mobility and freedom of vehicle choice.
Objective: FreedomCAR's mission is to develop a technology and fuel that will reduce consumption of petroleum-based fuel and
reduce carbon emissions.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide and other vehicle-related criteria pollutants.
Type Of policy or measure: Research and development.
Status of implementation: Adopted.
Implementing entities: This partnership is between DOE and the U.S. Council for Automotive Research (USCAR). Other U.S.
government agencies, including EPA and the Department of Transportation (DOT), will participate through related advances in
their own programs. The government will seek a cooperative relationship with suppliers and other companies conducting sub-
stantial automotive research and development activities in the United States.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The maturation of fuel cell technologies for transportation is a major
focus of FreedomCAR. Fuel cell vehicles will be free of petroleum, criteria pollutants, and carbon dioxide emissions.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: The new partnership supersedes and builds upon the successes of the Partnership
for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), which began in 1993. However, FreedomCAR is different in scope and breadth. It
shifts government research to more fundamental, higher-risk activities, with applicability to multiple-passenger vehicle models
and special emphasis on development of transportation fuel cells and related hydrogen fuel infrastructure.
The transition to a hydrogen fuel cell-powered energy system requires significant investment in order to successfully overcome
critical remaining barriers. Since considerable time will be required before fuel cells in transportation become a reality, Free-
domCAR also continues support for other technologies that have the potential in the interim to dramatically reduce oil con-
sumption and environmental impacts, and/or are applicable to both fuel cell and hybrid approaches—e.g., batteries, electronics,
and motors.
-------
Appendix B i 199
Vehicle Systems R&D
Description: DOE's Office of Heavy Vehicle Technologies works with its industry partners and their suppliers to research and
develop technologies that make heavy vehicles more energy efficient and able to use alternative fuels, while reducing vehicle
emissions.
Objective: This program aims to encourage optimum performance and efficiency in trucks and other heavy vehicles.
Gr66ntlOUS6 gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, information.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and national laboratories.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This program increases energy and national security, boosts energy effi-
ciency, reduces reliance on foreign energy sources, supports the economy through more efficient transportation of goods, and
improves safety through advanced truck materials.
-------
200 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Clean Cities
U.S. Department of Energy
Description: DOE's Clean Cities program supports public-private partnerships that deploy alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs) and
build supporting infrastructure, including community networks. Clean Cities works directly with local businesses and govern-
ments, guiding them through each step in the process of building the foundation for a vibrant local organization, including goal-
setting, coalition-building, and securing commitments. Current and potential members of the Clean Cities network also help
each other by sharing local innovations, addressing and relaying obstacles they encounter in pursuing alternative-fuel programs,
and exchanging "do's" and "don'ts," based on experiences in these programs. Clean Cities continually pioneers innovations and
aspires to make strides nationally as well as locally.
Objective: By encouraging AFV use, Clean Cities aims to help cities enhance their energy security and air quality.
Greenhouse gases dffected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, information.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE, local stakeholders, and local governments.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: Clean Cities increases energy efficiency, promotes private-public coop-
eration and information sharing, provides answers to complex issues, builds a network of contacts, and educates the public.
-------
Appendix B i 2O1
Biofuels Program
Description: Sponsored by DOE's Office of Fuels Development, the Biofuels Program researches, develops, demonstrates, and
facilitates the commercialization of biomass-based, environmentally sound, cost-competitive U.S. technologies to develop clean
fuels for transportation, leading to the establishment of a major biofuels industry. The program is currently pursuing the devel-
opment of conversion technologies for bioethanol and biodiesel fuels. It encourages the use of biomass sources, such as wastepa-
per and wood residues, to serve near-term niche markets as a bridging strategy to position the biofuels industry for the long-term
bulk fuel markets. To meet these ends, the program focuses on researching and developing integrated biofuels systems,- creating
strategic partnerships with U.S. industry and other stakeholders,- and improving the program's operations through well-defined
metrics, communication, and coordination with stakeholders and customers.
Objective: The Biofuels Program aims to encourage the large-scale use of environmentally sound, cost-competitive, biomass-
based transportation fuels.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, information.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE, national laboratories and private-sector partners (industry, individuals, and research organiza-
tions).
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The Biofuels Program increases energy efficiency,- reduces reliance on
foreign energy sources,- promotes the industry internationally, the commercialization of bio-based products, and renewable
resources,- creates jobs,- and provides a larger market for agricultural goods.
-------
202 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Commuter Options Programs: Commuter Choice
Leadership Initiative; Parking Cash-Out; Transit Check;
Telecommute Initiative; Others6
Descriptions. EPA sponsors a number of voluntary commuter initiatives to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria
pollutants from the transportation sector:
» The Commuter Choice Leadership Initiative is a voluntary employer-adopted program that helps to increase commuter flexibility
by expanding mode options, arranging flexible scheduling, and offering work location choices. EPA provides a variety of
technical support measures and recognition. Commuter Choice has also been implemented for workers at all federal agen-
cies.
» Parking Cash-Out is a benefit in which employers offer employees the option to receive taxable income in lieu of a free or
subsidized parking space at work. A similar set of tax law changes allows employers to offer nontaxable transit/vanpool ben-
efits, currently up to $100 monthly.
* The National Environmental Policy Institute (NEPI) initiated an incentive-based pilot Telecommuting Initiative that provides
employers with tradable criteria pollutant emission credits for reducing vehicle miles traveled from telecommuting work-
ers and is working to include greenhouse gases. Given rapid technological advances, telecommuting offers substantial
opportunity to reduce the need for some employees to travel to work.
Objective: These programs help to reduce growth in single-occupant-vehicle commuting by providing incentives and alterna-
tive modes, timing, and locations for work.
Greenhouse gases affected: The principal greenhouse gas affected in the transportation sector is carbon dioxide. However,
transportation actions also contribute to reductions of nitrous oxide and methane.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary and negotiated agreements, tax incentives to employers and employees, information,
education, and outreach.
Status Of implementation: Launched in 2000, EPAs Commuter Choice Leadership Initiative intends to sign up 550 employers
by end of 2002. The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 put Parking Cash Out and Transit Check into effective practice. A number of
states, notably California, have implemented measures to encourage Parking Cash Out. NEPI is launching the Telecommuting
Initiative effort in 2001 in five major metropolitan areas. EPA estimates greenhouse gas emission reductions of 3.5 teragrams of
CO2 in 2000, and projects reductions of more than 14 teragrams of CO2 in 2010.
Implementing entities: Commuter Choice—EPA and DOT, in partnership with employers,- Parking Cash Out and Transit
Check—individual employers, through the revision in the Internal Revenue Service Code,- Telecommuting Initiative—NEPI in
collaboration with EPA, DOT, and DOE.
Costs Of policy Or measure: These programs impose modest, voluntarily borne costs on businesses, which are largely offset by
other savings. Commuter option programs generate benefits through increased employee productivity, satisfaction, and lower
taxes. Participants in the telecommuting initiative can sell emission credits on the open market or to states for use in state imple-
mentation plans. Educational and outreach programs pose no direct costs on businesses.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: These programs will reduce energy use, traffic congestion, and criteria
pollutant emissions, including nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (which are ozone precursors considered to have
indirect global warming potential).
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: These programs are synergistic with one another, with "smart growth" and tran-
sit programs, and with state implementation plans and other required measures under the Clean Air Act.
6 Part of Action 20 in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report.
7 These commuter options replace EPA's Transportation Partners Program.
-------
Appendix B i 2O3
Smart Growth and Brownfields Policies
Description: EPA began the Air-Brownfields Pilot Program in response to concerns that air regulations were preventing the rede-
velopment of brownfields, which are abandoned industrial properties that may be moderately contaminated. The program
demonstrated that brownfield redevelopment and local land-use policies, such as infill and transit-oriented development, could
help reduce vehicle miles traveled.
EPA issued Improving Air Quality Through Land Use Activities in 2001 on how to take credit in a state implementation plan (SIP) for
local land-use policies that reduce emissions. Many cities have launched initiatives to encourage such development and plan to
increase development beyond what was anticipated in their Clean Air Act SIP submissions.
Other brownfield initiative include three types of grants: Assessment Demonstration Pilots, to assess brownfield sites and test cleanup and
redevelopment models,- Job Training Pilots, to train residents of affected communities to facilitate cleanup and work in the envi-
ronmental field,- and Cleanup Revolving Loan Fund Pilots, which capitalize loan funds for cleaning up brownfields.
The Smart Growth Network funds and facilitates a variety of smart growth-supportive activities and forums. The American Plan-
ning Association's Growing Smarter Program plans to target state government officials with a National Planning Statute Clear-
inghouse and Database, and the Growing Smarf" Legislative Guidebook, which will include model statutes for transportation demand
management. Additionally, a consensus has emerged that shifting funding to transit, nonmotorized modes, and other alternatives
more compatible with Smart Growth can increase demand for these alternatives, facilitate infill development, and decrease vehi-
cle miles traveled and greenhouse gas emissions. Federal research and outreach have increased the inclusion of these induced
demand/land-use issues into transportation models and planning processes.
Objective: These initiatives help to reduce the length and number of motorized trips.
Greenhouse gases affected: Primarily carbon dioxide, but also nitrous oxide and methane.
Type Of policy Or measure: Technical assistance, outreach, and voluntary acceptance of air- quality credits based on meeting
guidance standards.
Status Of implementation:The Air-Brownfields Pilot Program is complete, the land-use SIP guidance based on it has been pilot-
tested in four cities, and credit issuance begins in 2001. Technical assistance underway includes over 350 Assessment
Demonstration pilot programs, over 100 Loan Fund pilot programs, and nearly 50 Job Training and Development pilot programs.
EPA estimates reductions of 2.7 teragrams of CO2 in 2000, and projects 11 teragrams of CO2 by 2010.
Implementing entity Or entities: EPA, states, municipalities, and planning agencies.
Costs Of policy Or measure: federal guidance for voluntary credits imposes no cost. Private infill and brownfields development
remain voluntary market-based decisions, and so impose no private costs.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: These initiatives reduce energy use, congestion, infrastructure costs, cri-
teria air pollutants, and health threats from contaminated land,- increase the tax base,- and return contaminated land to produc-
tive use.
Interaction with other policies or measures: These initiatives interact with SIPs.
-------
204 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Ground Freight Transportation Initiative
Description: This initiative is a voluntary program aimed at reducing emissions from the freight sector through the implemen-
tation of advanced management practices and efficient technologies. It will focus on four areas: (1) assessing the most promising
technology and management practices and identifying their savings potential,- (2) inviting stakeholder participation (associations,
independent truckers, fleet managers, state and local governments, manufacturers, etc.) to determine the feasibility of these
opportunities and set program performance goals,- (3) designing an emissions calculation tool that helps companies determine
their environmental impact and identify cost-effective options for reaching the program's performance goals,- and (4) developing,
implementing, and publicizing a partnership initiative with these stakeholders.
Objective: This program facilitates reductions in the growth of emissions associated with ground freight (truck and rail) through
the increased use of efficient management practices, such as speed management, intermodal use and load matching, and advanced
technologies, such as idle control systems and aerodynamics.
Greenhouse gases affected: The principal greenhouse gas affected in the transportation sector is carbon dioxide. However,
transportation actions also contribute to reductions of nitrous oxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary and negotiated agreements, shipper policy changes, information, education, and out-
reach.
Status Of implementation: The program was kicked off in December 2001,- a full program launch will occur in the summer of
2002. EPA projects greenhouse gas emission reductions of 66 teragrams of CO2 in 2010.
Implementing entities: EPA and possibly DOT. Other organizations, such as the American Trucking Association and the
American Association of Railroads, will prove to be valuable allies in encouraging their members to join the initiative as member
companies.
Costs of policy Or measure: Similar programs impose modest, voluntarily borne costs on businesses, which are largely offset
by other savings. Some options may have substantial financial investments, such as truck stop electrification. Three different
stakeholder groups, including shippers, carriers, and manufacturers, will decide which strategies are most effective in their imple-
mentation and return on investments. Educational and outreach programs pose no direct costs on businesses.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The program will reduce energy use, traffic congestion, and criteria pol-
lutant emissions, including nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds—ozone precursors considered to have indirect glob-
al warming potential.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: This program is synergistic with state implementation plans and other required
measures under the Clean Air Act.
-------
Appendix B i 2O5
Clean Automotive Technology
Description: EPAs Clean Automotive Technology (CAT) program is a research and partnership program with the automotive
industry to develop advanced clean and fuel-efficient automotive technology.
ObjeCtiv6S:The program's objectives are to develop break-through engine and powertrain technologies to provide dramatic fuel
economy improvement in cars and trucks—without sacrificing affordability, performance, or safety while meeting emissions stan-
dards.
Greenhouse gases affected: Primarily carbon dioxide, but also nitrous oxide and methane.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, research.
Status Of implementation: EPA has demonstrated the CAT program's potential to meet its objectives. EPA is collaborating with
its partners to transfer the unique EPA-patented highly efficient hybrid engine and powertrain components, originally developed
for passenger car applications, to meet the more demanding size, performance, durability, and towing requirements of sport util-
ity vehicles and urban delivery vehicle applications, while being practical and affordable with ultra-low emissions and ultra-high
fuel efficiency. In 2001, the program signed a historic Cooperative Research and Development Agreement and License
Agreement with the Ford Corporation to invest further develop hydraulic hybrid and high-efficiency engine technology with an
aim toward putting a pilot fleet of vehicles on the road by the end of the decade.
Implementing entities: EPA and the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory working in collaboration with the Ford
and Eaton Corporations.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This partnership increases energy efficiency, economic productivity, and
competitiveness,- reduces energy dependence,- expands the nation's energy portfolio,- has non-GHG environmental benefits,-
strengthens public-private cooperation and interaction,- and creates jobs.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: CAT could interact with state implementation plans and other Clean Air Act
requirements.
-------
206 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
DOT Emission-Reducing Initiatives
DOT provides funding for and oversees transportation projects and programs that are implemented by the states and metropol-
itan areas across the country. Funding is provided under numerous programs that have specific purposes broadly encompassed by
DOT's five main goals in the areas of: safety, mobility, economic growth and trade, national security, and human and natural envi-
ronment.
Flexibility exists under the law to use program funds for a variety of different project types that are consistent with the overall
purposes of those funds. As such, highway funds may be used for transit, pedestrian improvements, bikeways, ride-sharing pro-
grams, and other transportation-demand-management projects, a well as system improvements on the road network. The
approach is decentralized in that, based on their own needs assessments, state and local governments determine what projects
should be implemented and use DOT funds in ways consistent with the purpose of the funding program.
From 1998 and through 2003, approximately $218 billion is available to the states and metropolitan areas under DOT's surface
transportation programs. While none of these programs specifically targets greenhouse gas reduction, many of them reduce
greenhouse gases as an ancillary benefit. Estimating the amount of greenhouse gases reduced is very difficult, since project selec-
tion is left to the individual states and metropolitan areas, and this benefit will vary among projects. Following is a sampling of
some of the more significant DOT programs that are likely to have ancillary greenhouse gas-reduction benefits.
* Transit Programs: Under the current authorization, transit programs will receive $41 billion between fiscal years 1998 and
2003. Programs that allow funding for new starts of transit systems, fixed guideway modernization, bus system improve-
ments and expansions, and high-speed rail development can have greenhouse gas reduction benefits. However, not all of
the transit funding will have these benefits, since projects that help to operate or maintain the current system will proba-
bly not attract new riders.
* Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement: This program is targeted at reducing ozone, carbon monoxide, and particu-
late matter generated by transportation sources. As the most flexible program under the current law, it funds new transit
services, bicycle and pedestrian improvements, alternative fuel projects, traffic flow improvements, and other emission-
reducing projects. As such, several projects funded under the program will likely reduce greenhouse gases as well. This pro-
gram provides about $1.35 billion a year to the states.
* Transportation Enhancements: Historically, about half of all Enhancement funding has been for bicycle and pedestrian improve-
ments, which certainly have some greenhouse gas reduction benefits. The Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century
has authorized about $560 million a year is for Enhancement activities over a six-year period.
* Transportation and Community System Preservation Pilot Program: This unique pilot program helps develop more livable communi-
ties by addressing environmental, economic, and equity needs. States, local governments, and metropolitan planning organ-
izations are eligible for discretionary grants to plan and implement strategies that improve the efficiency of the
transportation system, reduce environmental impacts and the need for costly future public infrastructure investments, and
ensure efficient access to jobs, services, and centers of trade. A total of $120 million is authorized for this program from fis-
cal years 1999 through 2003.
* Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards-. U.S. fuel economy standards for automobiles and light trucks were adopted
primarily to save energy. Compliance is based on average performance, and additional credit toward compliance is avail-
able to alternatively fueled vehicles. New vehicles offered for sale are also required to display labels that give consumers a
clear indication of fuel economy. DOT is currently examining other market-based approaches to increase the average fuel
economy of new vehicles, and will review and provide recommendations on future CAFE standards.
-------
Appendix B i 2O7
Industry (Non-C02)
Natural Gas STAR8
Description: This a voluntary partnership between EPA and the U.S. natural gas industry is designed to overcome barriers to the
adoption of cost-effective technologies and practices that reduce methane emissions.
Objective: The program's primary objective is to reduce methane emissions from U.S. natural gas systems.
Greenhouse gas affected: Methane.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary/negotiated agreement.
Status Of implementation: Launched in 1993 with the transmission and distribution sectors, Natural Gas STAR has since
expanded twice—to the production sector in 1995 and the processing sector in 2000. The program includes 88 corporate part-
ners representing 40 percent of U.S. natural gas production, 72 percent of transmission company pipeline miles, 49 percent of
distribution company service connections, and 23 percent of processing throughput.
Natural Gas STAR has developed a range of tools designed to help corporate partners implement best management practices to
reduce leakage. These include an implementation guide, streamlined electronic reporting, a series of "lessons learned" studies,
focused workshops, and partner-to-partner information exchanges. Extensive partner support for and continued expansion of the
program, combined with ongoing feedback from partners, demonstrate the effectiveness of these tools in promoting methane
reduction activities.
EPA estimates that the program reduced 15 teragrams of CO2 equivalent (38 Bcf methane) in 2000. Because of the expanded pro-
gram's tremendous success, EPA projects the program will reduce 22 teragrams of CO2 equivalent by 2010.
Implementing entities: EPA, in partnership with the U.S. natural gas industry.
Costs Of policy Or measure: Through Natural Gas STAR, partner companies implement only cost-effective methane reduction
practices. Practices implemented since the program's launch have saved U.S. natural gas companies billions of dollars worth of
gas that would otherwise have leaked to the atmosphere.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits of policy or measure: Many of the practices that partner companies undertake to reduce methane
emissions also reduce emissions of air pollutants and improve safety.
Interaction with other policies or measures: None.
Contact: Paul Gunning, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-9736, gunning.paul@epa.gov.
s Action 32 in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report; continuing.
-------
208 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Coalbed Methane Outreach Program9
METHANE
OUTREACH
PROGRAM
Description: This program reduces methane emissions associated with coal mining operations by (1) working with the coal
industry and other stakeholders to identify and remove obstacles to increased investment in coalbed methane recovery projects,
and (2) raising awareness of opportunities for profitable investments.
Objective: The program aims to cost-effectively reduce methane emissions from U.S. coal mining operations.
Greenhouse gas affected: Methane.
Type Of policy Or measure: Information, education, and outreach.
Status Of implementation: EPA began working with the coal mining industry in 1990 and officially launched the Coalbed
Methane Outreach Program (CMOP) in 1994. In 1990, coal mines captured and utilized only 25 percent of the methane pro-
duced from their degasification systems. By 1999, the recovery fraction had grown to over 85 percent. To eliminate the remain-
ing methane emitted from degasification systems, CMOP is working with industry to demonstrate the use of flare technology,
which has never been employed at a U.S. mine.
With the program's tremendous success in reducing methane emissions from degasification systems, CMOP has expanded its
focus to the methane emitted from coal mine ventilation systems. Ventilation air from coal mines typically contains methane at
concentrations of just a few percent, yet accounts for 94 percent of the remaining methane emissions from underground coal
mines—over 90 billion cubic feet of methane (about 36.6 teragrams of CO, equivalent) annually. CMOP is working with indus-
try to demonstrate and deploy newly developed technologies that can reduce these emissions substantially over the next few
years.
CMOP has developed a range of tools designed to overcome barriers to recovery and combustion of coal mine methane. These
include numerous technical and economic analyses of technologies and potential projects,- mine-specific project feasibility assess-
ments,- state-specific analyses of project potential,- guides to state, local, and federal assistance programs,- and market evaluations.
CMOP has worked with operators of virtually every U.S. underground coal mine to apply these tools and nurture each project.
In 2000, EPA estimates that CMOP reduced methane emissions by more than 7 teragrams of CO2 equivalent (19 Bcf methane).
Because of unanticipated mine closures, EPA projections of reductions for the CMOP program have been reduced slightly since
the 1997 submission, from 11 to 10 teragrams of CO, equivalent in 2010. However, CMOP's expected success in reducing ven-
tilation air methane over the next few years may lead to an upward revision in the projected reductions for 2010 and beyond.
Implementing entities: EPA, in partnership with the U.S. coal industry.
Costs Of policy Or measure: Coal mines implement only cost-effective methane recovery and utilization projects. Projects
implemented since the program's launch have earned U.S. coal companies million of dollars in energy sales.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: CMOP improves both the efficiency of methane recovery from coal
mines and mine safety.
Interaction with other policies or measures: None.
Contact: Karl Schultz, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-9468, schultz.karl@epa.gov.
9 Action 35 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report; continuing.
-------
Appendix B i 2O9
Significant New Alternatives Program10
Description: Section 612 of the Clean Air Act authorized EPA to develop a program for evaluating alternatives to ozone-deplet-
ing chemicals.
Objective: The Significant New Alternatives Program (SNAP) facilitates the smooth transition away from ozone-depleting
chemicals in major industrial and consumer sectors, while minimizing risks to human health and the environment. Sectors that
the program focuses on include air conditioning, refrigeration, aerosols, solvent cleaning, foams, fire suppression and explosion
protection, adhesives, coatings and inks, and sterilants.
Greenhouse gases affected: Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs).
Type Of policy Or measure: While SNAP actions are regulatory, the program also serves as an information clearinghouse on
alternative chemicals and technologies, and collaborates extensively with industry and other government partners on various
research activities.
Status of implementation: Hundreds of alternatives determined to reduce overall risks to human health and the environment
have been listed as acceptable substitutes for ozone-depleting chemicals. EPA has also used the authority under Section 612 to
find unacceptable uses or narrow the scope of uses allowed for HFCs and PFCs with high global warming potentials for specific
applications where better alternatives exist. EPA estimates that the program has reduced emissions by 50 teragrams of CO2 equiv-
alent in 2000 and projects reductions of 156 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in 2010.
Implementing entity: SNAP regulations are promulgated by EPA and enforced when needed at the national level.
Costs Of policy or measure: Costs are considered to be neutral in aggregate. SNAP either expands lists of available alternatives
to ozone-depleting chemicals that have been, or are being, phased out under the Montreal Protocol, or restricts the use of poten-
tial substitutes. In the first case, potential users are not required to use any one particular alternative listed as acceptable. Where
SNAP finds the use of alternatives (e.g., PFCs) unacceptable, the decision is based on the fact that other viable (i.e., effective and
affordable) alternatives are available that pose less risk to human health or the environment.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: In addition to encouraging responsible use of greenhouse gases as sub-
stitutes for ozone-depleting chemicals, SNAP has increased worker and consumer safety by restricting the use of flammable or
toxic chemicals, has encouraged the overall reduction in chemicals used in various applications (e.g., solvent cleaning), and, in
some cases, has restricted the use of volatile organic chemicals that generate ground-level ozone.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: SNAP compliments the phase-out of ozone-depleting chemicals mandated
under the Montreal Protocol and Clean Air Act. The program has worked to maintain balance between the need to find safe and
effective alternatives to ozone-depleting chemicals, while mitigating the potential effects of those alternatives on climate. HFCs,
and in some cases, PFCs, have been listed as acceptable substitutes for specific end uses where safer or effective alternatives are
not available. Depending on the end use, efficacy has been defined as effectiveness in suppressing or preventing fires and explo-
sions, thermal insulation value, or heat transfer efficiency.
Contact: Jeff Cohen, EPA, Global Programs Division, (202) 564-0135, cohen.jeff@epa.gov.
10 Action 40 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report.
-------
210 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
HFC-23 Partnership11
Description: This partnership works to cost-effectively reduce emissions of the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23, which is a by-
product in the manufacture of HCFC-22.
Objective: Through this program, EPA encourages companies to develop and implement technically feasible, cost-effective pro-
cessing practices or technologies to reduce HFC-23 emissions.
Greenhouse gas affected: HFC-23.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary/negotiated agreement.
Status Of implementation: This is an ongoing program with all the U.S. producers of HCFC- 22. The program partners have
effectively reduced emissions of HFC-23 through process optimization, reaching the total reductions that can likely be achieved
through this technique. In addition, some companies have used thermal destruction to reduce or eliminate their emissions. The
partnership has encouraged the industry to reduce the intensity of HFC-23 emissions (the amount of HFC-23 emitted per kilo-
gram of HCFC-22 manufactured) by 35 percent. Thus, despite an estimated 35 percent increase in production since 1990, total
emissions have declined by 15 percent. EPA estimates reductions of 17 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in 2000 and projects reduc-
tions of 27 teragrams of CO, equivalent in 2010.
Implementing entity: EPA is the sole government entity implementing this program. The program is open to all producers of
HCFC-22 operating in the United States.
Costs Of policy Or measure: Emission reductions achieved through process optimization are cost-effective.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits of policy or measure: None.
Interaction with other policies or measures: None.
Contact: Sally Rand, EPA, Global Programs Division, (202) 564-9739, rand.sally@epa.gov.
11 Action 41 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report.
-------
Appendix B 211
Partnership with Aluminum Producers12
"K
Description: This partnership program with the primary aluminum smelting industry is designed to reduce perfluorocarbons
emitted as a by-product of the smelting process.
Objective: EPA is partnering with primary aluminum producers to reduce perfluoromethane and perfluoroethane where techni-
cally feasible and cost-effective. The overall goal of the partnership is to reduce emissions by 30-60 percent from 1990 levels by
2000. Future reduction goals are being set.
Greenhouse gas aff6Cted: Perfluoromethane and perfluoroethane.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary/negotiated agreement.
Status of implementation: Since the partnership was formed in 1996, it has had great success in further characterizing the emis-
sions from smelter operations and reducing overall emissions. As of 2000, a new agreement has been negotiated to continue to
explore and implement emission reduction options through 2005. The overall goal for the program in 2000 has been met, with
emissions reduced by about 50 percent relative to 1990 levels, on an emissions per unit of product basis. Absolute emissions have
been reduced by an even greater percentage because some facilities have closed due to high energy costs in the Northwest. EPA
estimates reductions of 7 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in 2000 and projects reductions of 10 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in
2010.
Implementing entity: EPA is the sole government entity implementing this program. The program is open to all U.S. primary
aluminum producers.
Costs Of policy Or measure: factors that cause these emissions are a sign of efficiency loss. Emission reductions result in process
enhancements.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits of policy or measure: None.
Interaction with other policies or measures: None.
Contact: Sally Rand, EPA, Global Programs Division, (202) 564-9739, rand.sally@epa.gov.
12 Action 42 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report.
-------
212 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Environmental Stewardship Initiative13
Description: Environmental Stewardship Initiative was a new action proposed as part of the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report, based
on new opportunities to reduce emissions gases with high global warming potentials.
Objective: The objective initially was to limit emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, perfluororcarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride
(which are potent greenhouse gases) in three industrial applications: semiconductor production, electric power systems, and mag-
nesium production. Additional sectors are being assessed for the availability of cost-effective emission reduction opportunities
and are being added to this initiative.
Greenhouse gases affected: Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluororcarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary/negotiated agreement.
Status Of implementation: EPA launched the semiconductor partnership in 1996 and launched the electric power system and mag-
nesium partnerships in 1999. Implementation of the magnesium and electric power system partnerships is ongoing, with no sunset
date. The semiconductor partnership will be ongoing through 2010. EPA currently projects that the programs will reduce emissions
by 93 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in 2010. Because resource constraints delayed implementation of the electric power system and
magnesium partnerships, EPAs estimate of the reduction in 2000, 3 teragrams of CO2 equivalent, is less than expected.
Implementing entity: EPA is the sole government entity implementing this initiative. Partnerships are open to manufacturers
operating in the United States and to electric power systems with equipment containing greater than 15 pounds of sulfur hexa-
fluoride and all primary and die-casting magnesium operations.
Costs Of policy Or measure: Emission reductions are believed to be possible through inexpensive and cost-effective means.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits of policy or measure: None.
Interaction with other policies or measures: None.
Contact: Sally Rand, EPA, Global Programs Division, (202) 564-9739, rand.sally@epa.gov.
13 New in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report.
-------
Appendix B i 213
Agriculture
Agriculture Outreach Programs: AgSTAR;
Ruminant Livestock Efficiency Program14
ENERGY AND POLLUTIOH PREVENTION
Description: Specific practices aimed at directly reducing greenhouse gas emissions are developed, tested, and promoted
through such outreach programs as AgSTAR and the Ruminant Livestock Efficiency Program (RLEP).
Objectives: Through outreach to the agricultural community, these programs aim to demonstrate the technical feasibility of the
practices they promote.
Greenhouse gases affected: All greenhouse gases, but the focus has been on methane.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, information.
Status of implementation: These programs have been implemented. Their assessed impacts have changed since the 1997 sub-
mission. While their impact on greenhouse gas emissions has been small on a national scale, program stakeholders in the agri-
cultural community have demonstrated that the practices promoted by the programs can be effective in reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and increasing productivity.
Twelve digesters have been installed on AgSTAR charter farms, resulting in a 37,000 teragrams of CO2 equivalent per year reduc-
tion of emissions. An additional 13 facilities are in various stages of planning, pending additional funding. Installations at char-
ter farms have demonstrated the technical and economic feasibility of biogas production and utilization on livestock production
facilities with a wide range of manure-handling systems. Workshops related to the program have been held around the country
to further promote biogas production and utilization technology. In all, 31 systems are operating in the United States, resulting
in a total annual reduction of approximately 110,000 teragrams of CO2 equivalent.
The RLEP has funded the establishment of 50 demonstration farms throughout the Southeast. Production efficiency improve-
ments have been recorded at these farms, and numerous field days have been held to transfer this knowledge to others. The RLEP
has also supported the development of a cow/calf management course aimed at improving animal performance measures directly
related to greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, with the support of state-level nongovernment organizations, such as the Vir-
ginia Forage and Grassland Council, the RLEP has helped to improve forage and pasture management by encouraging the effec-
tive use of rotational grazing practices.
EPA and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will continue to evaluate these and other barriers and identify appropriate
actions to address them.
Implementing entities: EPA and USDA.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: Technologies used at certain confined animal feeding operations to
reduce methane concentrations are achieving other environmental benefits, including odor control and nutrient management
opportunities. In addition, many of the practices recommended by the RLEP for improving forage production remove carbon
dioxide from the atmosphere by storing carbon in the soil as organic matter.
14 Actions 38 and 39 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report.
-------
214 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Nutrient Management Tools15 US DA
Description: The Nitrogen Leaching and Economic Assessment Package (NLEAP) was enhanced to include the ability to quan-
tify nitrous oxide losses to the atmosphere. USDA began collaborating with partners on the development of two nutrient man-
agement tools that could be used to improve overall nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency at the farm level.
Objectives: This effort aims to build and make available to producers a database that documents nitrous oxide emissions from
different types of nitrogen fertilizer management. These efforts are intended to improve the overall efficiency of nitrogen fertil-
izer use at the farm level and to reduce nitrous oxide emissions from the application of nitrogen fertilizer.
Greenhouse gas affected: Nitrous oxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Research, information.
Status Of implementation:The NLEAP model has been implemented. USDA is working with Purdue University to develop and
implement the Manure Management Planner (MMP), a nutrient budgeting tool. MMP enables producers, and others who pro-
vide producers nutrient management assistance, to allocate nutrients based on a crop-specific nutrient budget that matches actu-
al nutrient application rates with recommended application rates or crop removal rates. The combination of MMP and NLEAP
will enable producers to both develop a detailed crop nutrient budget as well as assess its impact on nitrous oxide emissions.
Proper use and crediting of the nitrogen contributed by legume crops, and the availability and use of both NLEAP and MMP,
will assist in reducing nitrous oxide emissions. In the 1997 submission, projected reductions from this action were 18.3 teragrams
of CO2 equivalent. At this time, more analysis is needed to develop estimates and projections of emissions from this action.
Implementing entities: USDA, working with partners in 20 states.
' Part of Action 17inthe \997U.S.ClimateActionReport.
-------
Appendix B 215
USDA Commodity Credit i |Cr\A
Corporation Bioenergy Program U3L/r\
Description: USD As Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Bioenergy Program pays U.S. commercial bioenergy producers to
increase their bioenergy production from eligible commodities. Payments are based on the increase in bioenergy production
compared to the previous year's production fiscal year to date. To receive payments, producers must provide CCC evidence of
increased purchase of agricultural commodities and increased production of bioenergy. The program provides up to $150 million
for fiscal years 2001 and 2002, which is paid out on a quarterly fiscal year-to-date basis. A payment limitation restricts the amount
of funds any single producer may obtain annually under the program to 5 percent, or $7.5 million.
ObJ9CtlV9: The program's goal is to expand industrial consumption of agricultural commodities by promoting their use in the
production of bioenergy.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type of policy or measure: Economic.
Status Of implementation: The program was implemented at $15 million in fiscal year 2001 and will receive $150 million in
fiscal year 2002.
Implementing entities: The program is administered by USD As Farm Service Agency and funded by CCC.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The program provides incentives for agriculture to be part of the nation's
energy solutions by promoting the industrial consumption of agricultural commodities for bioenergy production,- expands
demand for corn and other grains used in ethanol production and creates new markets for oilseed crops,- and increases net returns
for ethanol and biodiesel processors, which will encourage expanded production capacity for these fuels and enhance rural devel-
opment.
-------
216 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Conservation Reserve Program: I |QP)A
Biomass Project u^i^n
Description: USDA has implemented Section 769 of the Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration and
Related Agencies Appropriations Act of 2000. This act authorizes Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land for pilot biomass proj-
ects for the harvesting of biomass to be used for energy production. The program restricts all land subject to CRP contracts that par-
ticipates in a biomass pilot project from being harvested for biomass more than once every other year. No more than 25 percent of
the total acreage enrolled in any crop-reporting district may be harvested in any year. And participants in a project must agree to a
25 percent reduction in their normal CRP annual rental payment for each year in which the acreage is harvested.
Objective: The project's objective is to provide biomass for energy production.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type of policy or measure: Economic.
Status Of implementation: The program has been implemented. The Secretary of Agriculture has approved four projects that
will produce electricity using grasses in Iowa, hybrid poplar trees in Minnesota, willows in New York, and switchgrass in New
York and Pennsylvania.
Implementing entity: USDA.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: This project enhances rural development.
-------
Appendix B 217
Forestry USDA
Forest Stewardship16
Description: USD As Forest Stewardship and Forest Stewardship Incentive Programs provide technical and financial assistance
to nonindustrial, private forest owners. The Forest Stewardship Program helps such owners prepare integrated management
plans, and the Stewardship Incentives Program cost-shares up to 75 percent of approved management practices, such as afforesta-
tion and reforestation. USDA's Forest Service manages both programs, in cooperation with state forestry agencies. A recent sur-
vey of landowners with Forest Stewardship Plans found that they were three times as likely to implement these plans if they
received financial and technical assistance.
Objective: The programs' intent is to improve conservation of our lands through enhanced planning and management. An orig-
inal goal of the Stewardship Incentive Program was to increase tree planting in the United States by over 94,000 hectares
(232,180 acres) a year within five years and to maintain this expanded level of planting for another five years.
Greenhouse gas affected: Carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary, information.
Status Of implementation: The programs have been implemented. During fiscal years 1991-99, 150,964 hectares (372,881
acres) of trees were planted.
Implementing entities: USDA Forest Service in cooperation with state forestry agencies.
Costs Of policy Or measure: The cost of the program during this same period was about $23.5 million. The program was not
funded for fiscal years 1999 through 2001.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: About 147 million hectares of U.S. forests are nonindustrial, private
forestlands. Private forests provide many ecological and economic benefits. They currently provide about 60 percent of our
nation's timber supply, with expectations of increases in the future. Improved planning and management on nonindustrial, pri-
vate forestlands and marginal agricultural lands can help meet resource needs and provide important ancillary benefits that
improve environmental quality—e.g., wildlife habitat, soil conservation, water quality protection and improvement, and recre-
ation. Additionally, tree planting and forest management increase the uptake of carbon dioxide and the storage of carbon in liv-
ing biomass, soils, litter, and long-life wood products.
s Action 44 in the 1997 U.S. Climate Action Report.
-------
218 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Waste Management
Climate and Waste Program17 WlSE
WASTE
Preserving Resources,
Preventing Waste
Description: This program encourages recycling and source reduction for the purpose of reducing greenhouse emissions. EPA is
implementing a number of targeted efforts within this program to achieve its climate goals. WasteWise is EPAs flagship volun-
tary waste reduction program. EPA initiatives on extended product responsibility and biomass further reduction efforts through
voluntary or negotiated agreements with product manufacturers and market development activities. The Pay-As-You-Throw ini-
tiative provides information to community-based programs on cost incentives for residential waste reduction.
Objective: The program aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through progressive waste management activities.
Greenhouse gases affected: The program takes a life-cycle perspective on greenhouse gas emissions from waste management
practices, accounting for emissions and sinks from energy use, forest management, manufacturing, transportation, and waste man-
agement. The principal greenhouse gases affected are carbon dioxide and methane,- nitrous oxide and perfluorocarbons are also
affected.
Type of policy Or measure: The program is a voluntary effort, using partnerships, information dissemination, technical assis-
tance, and research to promote greenhouse gas reductions.
Status Of implementation: WasteWise currently has over 1,200 partners, representing 53 civic and industrial sectors and rang-
ing from Fortune 1000 companies to small local governments. Extended product responsibility is facilitating negotiations
between industry and state leaders on product stewardship systems (e.g., carpets and electronics). The biomass effort includes a
compost quality seal program, compost use for state highway projects, and market development for bio-based products. Over
5,000 communities are participating in the program's Pay-As-You-Throw educational initiative, which provides ongoing techni-
cal assistance to stakeholders ranging from industry to governments and international organizations. EPA estimates reductions of
8 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in 2000 and projects reductions of 20 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in 2010.
Implementing entities: EPA, working with government, industry, and nongovernment organizations, acts as the primary imple-
menting agency.
Costs of policy Or measure: Most of the waste-reduction measures result in cost savings or minimal costs when viewed from a
full-cost accounting perspective.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits of policy or measure: Measures under this program yield collateral benefits, including energy sav-
ings, and reduced emissions from raw materials acquisition, virgin materials manufacturing, and waste disposal.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: EPAs Climate and Waste Program has assisted organizations interested in quan-
tifying and voluntarily reporting greenhouse gas emission reductions (e.g., through DOE's 1605b Program) from waste manage-
ment activities. Also, EPAs activities under Initiative 16 complement its methane reduction programs (Actions 33 and 34),
including the Landfill Methane Outreach Program.
' Part of Action 16 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report; continuing.
-------
Appendix B i 219
Stringent Landfill Rule18
Description: Landfill gas, which is the largest contributor to U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions, also contains significant
quantities of nonmethane organic compounds. Landfill New Source Performance Standards and Emissions Guidelines (Landfill
Rule) require large landfills to capture and combust their landfill gas emissions. Due to climate concerns, this rule was made more
stringent (i.e., by lowering the emissions level at which landfills must comply with the rule from 100 to 50 megagrams of non-
methane organic compounds per year), resulting in greater landfill gas recovery and combustion.
The rule works hand-in-hand with EPAs Landfill Methane Outreach Program to promote cost-effective reductions in methane
emissions at larger landfills. The Landfill Methane Outreach Program provides landfills with technical, economic, and outreach
information to help them comply with the rule in a way that maximizes benefits to the environment while lowering costs.
Objective: The rule requires U.S. landfills to capture and combust their landfill gas emissions. This reduces their emissions of
methane, as well as nonmethane organic compounds.
Greenhouse gas affected: Methane.
Type of policy or measure: Regulatory.
Status Of implementation: The Landfill Rule was promulgated under the Clean Air Act in March 1996, and implementation
began at the state level in 1998. Preliminary data on the impact of the rule indicate that increasing its stringency has significantly
increased the number of landfills that must collect and combust their landfill gas. EPA estimates reductions in 2000 at 15 tera-
grams of CO2 equivalent. The current projection for 2010 is 33 teragrams of CO2 equivalent, although the preliminary data sug-
gest that reductions from the more stringent rule may be even greater over the next decade.
Implementing entities: EPA promulgated the Landfill Rule, and individual states implement it.
Costs Of policy Or measure: The rule's objective is to reduce nonmethane organic compound emissions because of their con-
tribution to local air pollution. Combustion of the of nonmethane organic compound-containing landfill gas also reduces the
methane it contains, at no incremental cost.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: Combusting landfill gas reduces emissions of nonmethane organic com-
pounds as well as methane. It also can reduce odors and improve safety by stopping landfill gas migration.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: The rule interacts with the Landfill Methane Outreach Program.
8 Action 33 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report, continuing.
-------
220 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Landfill Methane Outreach Program19
LANDFILL METHANE
OUTREACH PROGRAM
Description: Landfills are the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions. Capture and use of landfill gas reduce
methane emissions directly and carbon dioxide emissions indirectly by displacing the use of fossil fuels. The Landfill Methane
Outreach Program (LMOP) works with landfill owners, state energy and environmental agencies, utilities and other energy sup-
pliers, industry, and other stakeholders to lower the barriers to landfill gas-to-energy project development.
While LMOP works hand-in-hand with EPAs Landfill Rule to promote cost-effective reductions in methane emissions at larger
landfills, it focuses its outreach efforts on smaller landfills not regulated by the rule, encouraging the capture and use of methane
that would otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere. LMOP has developed a range of tools to help landfill operators overcome
barriers to project development, including feasibility analyses, software for evaluation project economics, profiles of hundreds of
candidate landfills across the country, a project development handbook, and energy end-user analyses.
Objective: The program aims to reduce methane emissions from U.S. landfills.
Greenhouse gases affected: Methane and carbon dioxide.
Type Of policy Or measure: Voluntary/negotiated agreements, information, education, and outreach.
Status Of implementation: Launched in December 1994, LMOP has achieved significant reductions through 2000, reducing
methane emissions from landfills by an estimated 11 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in that year alone. The program includes over
240 allies and partners, and the number of landfill gas-to-energy projects has grown from less than 100 in the early 1990s to
almost 320 projects by the end of 2000. EPA projects reductions of 22 teragrams of CO2 equivalent in 2010.
Implementing entities: EPA, in partnership with landfills and the landfill gas-to-energy industry.
Costs Of policy Or measure: LMOP participants implement only cost-effective landfill gas-to-energy projects. Projects imple-
mented since the program's launch have created millions of dollars of revenue for public and private landfill owners and others.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: Combusting landfill gas reduces emissions of nonmethane organic com-
pounds as well as methane. It also can reduce odors and improve safety by stopping landfill gas migration.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: The program interacts with the Landfill Rule.
Contact: Paul Gunning, EPA, Climate Protection Partnerships Division, (202) 564-9736, gunning.paul@epa.gov.
"Action 34 in the 1997 U.S.Climate Action Report, continuing.
-------
Appendix B i 221
Cross-sectoral
Federal Energy Management Program f t PH m
I FEDERAL ENEMY nflNflOEHENT FROORflM
Description: The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) is a separate DOE sector. It reduces energy use in federal build-
ings, facilities, and operations by advancing energy efficiency and water conservation, promoting the use of renewable energy,
and managing the utility choices of federal agencies. FEMP accomplishes its mission by leveraging both federal and private
resources to provide technical and financial assistance to other federal agencies. FEMP helps agencies achieve their goals by pro-
viding alternative financing tools and guidance to use the tools, technical and design assistance for new construction and retro-
fit projects, training, technology transfer, procurement guidance, software tools, and reporting and evaluation of all agencies'
programs.
Objective: The program aims to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy use in federal buildings, facilities, and opera-
tions.
Greenhouse gases affected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Types Of policy Or measure: Economic, information, and education.
Status of implementation: Implemented.
Implementing entities: DOE and other federal agencies.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: The program has non-greenhouse gas environmental benefits, improves
energy efficiency, promotes interaction and information sharing across federal agencies, provides education and training to fed-
eral personnel, and supports technology development and deployment.
-------
222 i O.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
State and Local Climate Change
Outreach Program
Description: This program provides a variety of technical and outreach/education services related to climate change, including
guidance documents, impacts information, modeling tools, policy and technology case studies, electronic newsletters and com-
munications, technical assistance, networking opportunities, and modest financial support for analysis and activities. The expect-
ed results are increased awareness about climate change, well-informed policy choices, and accelerated reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions, as well as additional economic and clean air benefits achieved from lower emissions.
Objective: The program aims to enable state and local decision makers to incorporate climate change planning into their prior-
ity planning, so as to help them maintain and improve their economic and environmental assets.
Greenhouse gases dffected: Carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and volatile organic compounds.
Type Of policy Or measure: Information, education, and research (policy analysis).
Status of implementation: The program has been ongoing since the early 1990sandhas recently expanded its focus to encour-
age comprehensive, multi-pollutant policy planning. The program's budget for fiscal year 2000 was $0.8 million,- for fiscal year
2001, it was $1.23 million.
Implementing entities: EPA provides technical and financial support to state and local governments through this effort. The
state and local governments, in turn, develop greenhouse gas inventories and action plans where they set reduction targets for
themselves. They also conduct outreach and demonstration projects in their jurisdictions to increase awareness about climate
change and facilitate replication of successful mitigation opportunities.
Costs Of policy Or measure: State and local governments have identified tremendous potential and actual opportunities from
greenhouse gas emission reductions. For example, 12 of the state plans completed so far have forecast reductions of 2010 emis-
sions by 13 percent (256 teragrams of CO2 equivalent) cumulatively, with a cost savings exceeding $7.8 billion if the actions are
implemented as recommended. Local governments are reporting actual savings of about 7 teragrams of CO2 equivalent per year
from their efforts, with cost savings of $70 million.
Non-GHG mitigation benefits Of policy Or measure: Local governments are reporting actual savings of 28,000 tons of air pol-
lution and $70 million in energy and fuel costs each year. State plans have identified annual potential energy and fuel savings of
almost $8 billion, plus the creation of more than 20,000 jobs from climate change mitigation policies. One state plan identified
mitigation policies that would reduce cumulative acid rain precursors and ground-level ozone precursors by 24 and 30 percent,
respectively, through 2020.
Interaction with Other policies Or measures: Rather than trying to be an expert at all levels, the program serves as a one-stop
shop for state and local governments looking to reduce greenhouse gases. When governments express interest in particular activ-
ities and technologies that are covered under a national program, the program refers them to the appropriate program so they
may acquire additional information and move forward under the guidance of national experts.
Contact: Julie Rosenberg, EPA, Global Programs Division, (202) 564-9154, rosenberg.julie@epa.gov.
-------
Appendix C
Part 1: Selected Technology Transfer Activities
Part 2: Table 7.3—U.S. Direct Financial Contributions and Commercial Sales
Related to Implementation of the UNFCCC
-------
224 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Renewable Energy Power Generation &
Renewable Energy in Rural Areas
Purpose: Promote the appropriate and sustainable use of renewable-energy (RE) technologies in Mexico to (1) increase the qual-
ity and lower the costs of RE technologies and systems by expanding markets for, and providing feedback to, the U.S. and
Mexican RE industry,- (2) increase the use of clean energy sources to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit pollution,- and
(3) increase the economic, social, and health standards in rural, off-grid communities by utilizing energy for productive-use appli-
cations.
Recipient country: Mexico.
Sector:Mitigation-, energy.
Total funding: $12 million.
Years in operation: 1994-present.
Description: The program implements RE projects that demonstrate the technology and its application on a larger scale by the
Government of Mexico. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) helped government counterpart agencies
develop two national plans that promote RE through expansion/replication of USAID pilot efforts. For example in 1999, more
than 100 RE systems were installed that will generate more than 14,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity over their lifetimes
that would have otherwise been generated by fossil fuel plants. The majority of this power generation is taking place in the town
of San Juanico, Baja California Sur, where a large USIJI-approved hybrid RE (wind and photovoltaic) project will avoid the gen-
eration of approximately 100,000 teragrams of CO2 emissions over the project's estimated 30-year lifetime.
Factors that led to project's SUCCeSS: The model for the Mexico Renewable Energy Program is based on guidelines provided
by the Photovoltaic System Assistance Center (15 years of domestic and international interactions) at Sandia National
Laboratories and 8 years of experience gained by the program from working in Mexico. The fundamental principles of the model
are (1) partnerships, (2) capacity building, (3) technical assistance, (4) pilot project implementation, (5) project replication, and
(6) monitoring.
Technology transferred: Equipment to prevent the anthropogenic generation of GHGs-. Photovoltaic and small wind electric systems tied
to specific applications, such as water pumping, electrification, home lighting systems, and communications.
Impact on greenhouse gas emissions/sinks (optional): Not calculated.
-------
Appendix C i 225
EcoHomes Project/Sustainable Homes Initiative
Purpose: To promote energy-efficient housing design to increase savings in space heating and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
EcoHomes trains lenders, builders, and community groups to increase their awareness of low-cost, environmentally sound, energy-
efficient housing that can be incorporated into South Africa's housing program.
Recipient country: South Africa.
Sector: Mitigation-, energy.
Total funding: $750,000.
Years in operation: EcoHomes: 1 997-2001,- SHL 1999-2002.
Description: USAID's approach to environmental programs in South Africa is aligned with the country's immediate development
needs (i.e., housing) and the South African government's development policy, which seeks to implement environmentally benign
development projects. USAID has supported these two sustainable housing initiatives that link renewable energy use with new
housing developments as a solution for nonurban areas having no access to the power grid. These initiatives aim to promote the
development of energy-efficient, environmentally sustainable, and affordable housing.
USAID co-sponsors the Sustainable Homes Initiative (SHI), a national effort to increase awareness and construction of environ-
mentally sustainable, affordable housing. SHI provides professional assistance to housing designers and developers to increase
energy efficiency and environmental sustainability,- develop and market building materials and products,- train builders, lenders,
and policymakers,- disseminate products, designs, and professional resources,- and develop case studies documenting the cost and
environmental benefits of energy-efficient housing.
Factors that led to project's SUCCeSS: Active participation of all stakeholders involved, ranging from the local and national
governments to banks and builders,- compatibility with the national government's development objectives.
Technology transferred: Equipment to prevent the anthropogenic generation of GHGs-. Passive-solar building design, appropriate building
materials for home insulation,- landscape design with shade trees.
Impact on greenhouse gas emissions/sinks (optional):
1999.- Kutlwanong Civic Association/Eco-Homes project saved an estimated 210 metric tons of CO2 per year. The Gugulethu
Community Development Corporation's construction of model homes led to a savings of 13 metric tons of CO,.
2000.- With the addition of 1 1,400 houses, 99.4 gigagrams of CO2 will be avoided over the project's 25-year lifetime.
-------
226 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Coastal Resources Management Program
Purpose: To promote the essential elements of sustainable development—protecting the world's environment, fostering bal-
anced economic growth, encouraging democratic participation in governance, and improving the health and well-being of peo-
ple in developing countries—in the context of coastal resource management.
Recipient Countries: Indonesia, Tanzania, Mexico.
Sector: Adaptation-, coastal zone management, protection of coral reefs and other marine resources.
Total Funding: $31 million.
Years in operation: 1999-2003.
Description: This program promotes integrated coastal management. It includes such activities as development of watershed
management plans,- protection of marine areas,- conservation of critical coastal habitats to protect from storm surge, sea level rise,
and erosion,- and development of best practices for coastal planning.
Factors that led to project's SUCCeSS: An integrated, participatory approach by stakeholders at the local and national levels
to coastal management, which allows for effective response to development challenges, including those posed by climate vul-
nerability, variability, and sea level rise.
Technology transferred: Capacity building for integrated coastal management,- geographic information systems (GIS) for map-
ping coastal resources.
Impact on greenhouse gas emissions/sinks (optional): Not applicable.
-------
Appendix C i 227
Philippine Climate Change Mitigation Program
Purpose: To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through energy-sector initiatives without adversely affecting economic growth.
The program focuses on four principal efforts to help the Government of the Philippines and the local private sector to (1)
increase the use of clean fuels, including natural gas and renewable energy,- (2) improve the policy environment for power-sec-
tor restructuring and privatization,- (3) increase energy efficiency,- and (4) strengthen the institutional capability of government
agencies involved in the restructuring of the energy sector.
Recipient country: Philippines.
Sector: Mitigation-, energy.
Total funding: $8.9 million.
Years in operation: 1998-2001.
Description: This joint program of USAID and the Government of the Philippines is a direct response to mitigate global cli-
mate change. It promotes more efficient generation, distribution, and consumption of electricity by expanding the use of clean
fuels, building public and private-sector capacity for improved energy-sector development and management.
Factors that led to project's SUCCeSS: The development of policies that lead to the adoption of legislative and administrative
actions that result in increased efficiency and/or cleaner energy production.
Technology transferred: Capacity building.
Impact On greenhouse gas emissions/Sinks (optional): Avoidance of approximately 19.2 teragrams of CO2 equivalent per
year by 2002 through the use of cleaner fuels,- and avoidance of at least 1.7 teragrams of CO2 equivalent per year by 2002 through
improvements in energy efficiency.
-------
228 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Program
Purpose: (1) To promote sustainable development by reducing vulnerability to natural hazards in existing and planned devel-
opment,- (2) to improve public awareness and development decision making by accurately mapping hazard-prone areas,- (3) to
improve hazard risk management by the insurance industry and help maintain adequate catastrophe protection for the region,-
(4) and to promote community-based disaster preparedness and prevention activities with support from the private sector.
Recipient Countries'. Caribbean region, Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti,
Jamaica, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, St. Lucia.
Sector. Adaptation: weather related disaster preparedness,- vulnerability assessments.
Total funding: $5 million.
Years in operation: 1993-1999.
Description: Implemented for USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance by the Organization of American States' Unit of
Sustainable Development and Environment, this program's activities target six major themes: (1) community-based preparedness,
(2) hazard assessment and mapping, (3) hazard-resistant building practices, (4) vulnerability and risk audits for lifeline facilities,
(5) promotion of hazard mitigation within the property insurance industry, and (6) incorporation of hazard mitigation into post-
disaster recovery.
Factors that led to project's SUCCeSS: (1) Close coordination with development finance institutions,- (2) training of Caribbean
professionals, which raised awareness and provided potential long-term capacity for this type of work,- (3) outreach to institu-
tions that share a concern for disaster preparedness /loss reduction and have resources to contribute (e.g., financial services indus-
try: banks and the property insurance industry),- (4) USAID/OAS team approach to problem solving,- (5) Technical Advisory
Committee's ability to keep the project relevant to the needs of the region,- and (6) implementation of the National Mitigation
Policy and Planning Activity, which helped to facilitate the use of many mitigation tools, policies, and practices introduced by
the project.
Impact on greenhouse gas emissions/sinks (optional): Not applicable.
-------
Appendix C i 229
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)
Purpose: To help establish more effective, sustainable, and African-led food security and response networks that reduce vulner-
ability to food insecurity
Recipient Countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda,
Somalia, Southern Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Sector. Adaptation-, agriculture.
Total funding: $6.3 million.
Years in operation: FEWS: 1985-2000,- FEWS NET 2000-2005 (planned).
Description: YEWS NET assesses short- to long-term vulnerability to food insecurity with environmental information from satel-
lites and agricultural and socioeconomic information from field representatives. The program conducts vulnerability assessments,
contingency and response planning, and other activities aimed at strengthening the capacities of host country food security net-
works. Network members include host country and regional organizations that work on food security, response planning, envi-
ronmental monitoring, and other relevant areas.
Factors that led tO project's SUCCeSS: (\] The combined environmental monitoring expertise of the U.S. National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S Geological
Survey (USGS),- (2) implementation by African field staff.
Technology transferred: Information networks-, remote-sensing data acquisition, processing, and analysis,- geographic information sys-
tem (GIS) analytical skills. Equipment to facilitate adaptation-. GIS hardware and software.
Impact on greenhouse gas emissions/sinks (optional): Mot applicable.
-------
230 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Rio Bravo Carbon Sequestration Pilot Project in Belize
Purpose: To reduce, avoid, and mitigate approximately 2.4 teragrams of carbon over the life of the project through the preven-
tion of deforestation and sustainable forest management practices.
Recipient country: Belize.
Sector:Mitigation-, forest conservation.
Total funding: $5.6 million (U.S.) for first 10 of 40 years.
Years in Operation: January 1995-present. Project duration is 40 years.
Description: This project is one of the first fully funded forest-sector projects implemented under USIJI. It was developed by
The Nature Conservancy in collaboration with Programme for Belize (PfB, a local NGO) and Winrock International. The proj-
ect is underway at the Rio Bravo Conservation and Management Area on 104,892 hectares (260,000 acres) of mixed lowland,
moist subtropical broadleaf forest. PfB manages the project along with the entire private reserve. In addition to support from PfB,
a number of energy companies provided $5.6 million to fund the first 10 years of the project, after which it is expected to be
self-sustaining. These companies include Cinergy, Detroit Edison, PacifiCorp, Suncor, Utilitree Carbon Company, and
Wisconsin Electric/Wisconsin Gas, and American Electric Power.
Factors that led to project's SUCCeSS: A well-designed forest conservation and management project can produce significant
net carbon benefits that are scientifically valid and long lasting. The project also helps conserve biodiversity, improve local envi-
ronmental quality, and meet a variety of sustainable development goals by enhancing local capacity to manage and secure the
protected area. Management practices include (1) creation of undisturbed buffer areas and protection zones, (2) silvicultural treat-
ments to boost biomass volume between cutting cycles, (3) reduced-impact harvesting techniques, (4) promotion of highly
durable timber products, and (5) enhanced fire management and site security.
Technology transferred: Training-. Jobs and training in forestry, forest management, and park security.
Impact On greenhouse gas emissions/Sinks (optional): A total of 59,720 hectares (153,000 acres) of mixed lowland, moist
subtropical broadleaf forest will be included under the project, leading to the protection of up to 240 tree species, 70 mammal
species, and 390 bird species.
-------
Appendix C i 231
Coal Mine Methane Recovery Project in China
Purpose: To work with the Government of China and the Chinese coal industry (1) to identify opportunities to reduce methane
emissions from coal mining and use these emissions as energy,- (2) to develop the domestic capacity to implement coal mine
methane technologies,- and (3) to develop commercial partnerships between Chinese and foreign companies to realize profitable
projects that reduce methane emissions.
Recipient country: China.
Sector: Mitigation-, energy, industry.
Total funding: $ 150,000.
Years in operation: 1989-present.
Description: Chinese mines are the greatest global source of methane emissions from coal mining. This U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) project involves assessments and pilot projects for capturing abundant gas resources at Chinese mines,
with concurrent mine safety, power production, and climate benefits. A Coalbed Methane Information Clearinghouse is housed
at the China Coal Information Institute and has conducted considerable outreach to U.S. and other companies interested in this
market. The clearinghouse has published journals in Chinese and English, has hosted several domestic and international semi-
nars, and has developed with EPA an economic analysis model to identify profitable projects to reduce methane emissions. It cur-
rently is participating in studies that will ultimately lead to significant investment in commercial-scale projects. The
clearinghouse and EPA signed an agreement in April 1999 at the Gore—Zhou Energy and Environment Forum, outlining a two-
year market data development project, that, building on the Clearinghouse's experience, is providing information and analyses
on specific coal mine methane project opportunities for Chinese and Western investors and developers.
Factors that led to project's SUCCeSS: (1) Interest generated by coal sector in methane recovery for safety, productivity, and
energy value of coal mine methane recovery,- (2) interest generated by the Government of China in developing coalbed methane
resources for energy supply, energy security, and local/regional environmental benefits,- (3) interest generated by international
organizations and companies in the global environmental and energy benefits of coal mine methane,- and (4) nurturing of part-
nerships with responsible Chinese organizations in developing the nation's coal mine methane resources.
Technology transferred:Equipment to reduce anthropogenic sources of GHGs-. Coal mine methane gas production technologies (surface
and in-mine),- coal mine methane use technologies. Training/Capacity Building: Financial analysis and marketing to international
companies.
Impact On greenhouse gas emissions/Sinks (optional): Emission reductions have more than quadrupled since 1990 to
approximately 500 million cubic meters of methane per year (more than 7 teragrams of CO, equivalent per year).
-------
232 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
o
OC
6 3 :
m
o
a
"o
£
•2
SI
i!
fc
fc
: s !
|
i
J
S
.s
«
o
O
1
e
u
f
i s
Is
o
o
.2
S
in
S
S
m
S
>-
ac
O
u
g
1
<
i *
!
-------
Appendix C i 233
I
• DI S
ill
4 o
il
•0
ill
151
I
a S"
•s
to
.1
o
o
^
=
II
o
S?
S
o.
^
.S
if
|
o
o
1
o
o
.2
lj_
S
4
i
co
3
g
UJ
^
^
gS
pua
i
-------
234 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
) O
* '
§'
o '
§'
o
u
o
or
» -|
ill
o o s
0|
o S.
CO
=
ons
U
u
a
3
0>
£
•s
^!
t
S
£
HI
t
5
I!
s:
o •
ill
s
™
o
u
1
Ag
o
o
.2
Q
c/>
8
S
a
CO
EGI
COU
S
1
.a
,<
is.
~m
.1
5
s
1
It
15
.1
f:
> i
i •£ i
! E i
i m c
-------
Appendix C i 235
1
o
u
o
u.
« 01 '
(O C '••
o 1 '
ipation
£•
ill
SI
1
til
III
I
ii7
i Is
s
a
i
3.
v>
.2
lture
Ag
1 I
ffi_J_
S
;'•§
i
s
|i
LJJ
s
REGIO
s
z
il
-------
236 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
o
o
o
QL
§
8 !
co
3
"o
g
•2
>ii
o
o
o
I
•5
I
m
S
IS',
'•S
s
&
.2
s
o
o
•o
ation
o
o
.S
Con
a
cd
15
.0
"B
.1
m
JS
o
o
2
.S
'1
L §
§
. .s
i 3 .
ISi
!2]
! f
IS:
! s'^
i (6 i
i <
i E
!E
: .s
i!
iS
i.g
-------
Appendix C i 237
> CO <
s
Of
UJ
X
I—
o
8l
O a.
il
II
I
Deserti-
;8!
8;
) OJ '
• o «
ll
*«
Jj_
s
;'•€
port
CO '
CO .
UJ
i
RE
COU
?
J2
|
O i
g1
S
i
5
3:
15 :
i
,<3
*::
i
j S
il
il
ii
-------
238 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
g
> CD
'a
: s s
sj;
00
11
i|
a|
S
: ig !
REGI
COU
7a
.i
.s
I
.s
S
•s
5
.a
I
I:
S
£
!§
I:
•5
.i
s
c
-------
Appendix C i 239
"?
J2
o
V)
3
"o
IA
s
I
u
u
u
oftheUNF
g
1
S
8
2
'i
•t
a
o
i
i
t
*
CO
1
O) O
c -JJ
"I
Participation
Vulnerability
Studies
II
Coastal
Resources
•a
Disaster
Prepared-
ness
it
*5
f
X
Agriculture
f§
1
'
i5j
Forest
Conservation
I
£
5
UJ
COUNTRY /REGION
£
CD
*
CO
^
£
c
SJ
CO
S
cc
c>
.2
i
o
CO
CO
o
S
Costa Rica
^
0
§
8
0
0
1
i
1
*°
CM
O
$
a
a
0
1 Dominican Rep
?i
CT>
•*f
CM
0
IT)
^
&
O
00
o
Ecuador
o
CO
N
CM
CO
o
El Salvador
S
o
0
French Guiana
CO
^
c
o
Grenada Islands
&
o
w
Guadeloupe
M
CO
S
CM
&
c5>
o
ir
o
(Guatemala
o
0
c
CO
c
S
(2
^>
o
3,
0
S
o-
CO
:1
z:
CO
«
0
•«J
r-
CO
Honduras
•^
cy
c^
4
CO
o
(1
"1
Jl
^
to
}^
C3
•^•
If
O
?;
o
Latin America / Caribbean Regional
0
0
*
S
o
9
.5
i
oS
n
CM
^
o
3>
in
S
CN
U)
o
c
ir
f
•^-
.8
i
o
CM
f^.
O
•^-
CO
0
c
1
'•3.
i
o>
CO
o
fn
^
M
a
S
a.
H
3
^
ir
o
o
0
3
\
Q_
•^
^
O
Si
CM
ao
N.
^~
CO
O
o
0
o
o
Saint Kitts-Nevis
o
^
Saint Lucia Islands
8
o
c^
Isaint Vincent & Grenadines
CM
O
^
O
O
ISuriname
•^•
CO
^
CO
o
ITrinidad & Tobago
CO
o
yJ
ci
o
S
i
c
£
-*r
CM
CO
o
IT
CD
(Venezuela
0>
3
«
CO
4
5
S
CM
CN
n
£
oc
0
o
e>
V
s
lOTHER GLOBAL PROGRAMS
-------
240 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
I
: K
SJ
(
u
o
o
Of
UJ
•S
$
111
8
(N
at
3
"8
S
o
o
I1
Res
X
£i
o> !
z
=9
I
acity Buil
If
: C
is
IS
SCO <
CO (
s
t
»
s
'a
I"
8
8
IGATIO
1 I
aj_
g
;'S
o
o
Con
ransport
S
Q
CO
REGIO
IB
.1
m
COU
8i
o: <
9!
s
J.
' l:
is,
;^£
!•§
;i
is;
i.i
: 3
i o :
s
i 3
<
E .
\ S'-
i .i i
I M i
-------
Appendix C i 241
3
S
:s
'S
o
o
o
or
ii
08
2
s
It
s
CM •
CM (
> O> (
e
3
U
'I
||
? *
18
o
o
1
b
oi
8'
3
S
REGIO
COU
.s
1
Ii
•s
S
$
.=
S,
g, J,
55:
1.
•o .
.1
!|.
iff.
S
S,
i
ra
, .1
12
||
t CO
S
•i
™ iS i
-------
242 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
o 3 5
si
t o
s
V)
"5
S
i
t
I!
&
o
"I
g
I
II |ll
I
I
Is
s.
X .
s •
Q
-------
Appendix C i 243
o
o
o
cc.
o -5
8l
11
re
1
ll
l
rces
o
o
o
S
•5
acify
S
i
E
o
O
l^
UJ
_l
CD
It
l!!
a a.
It
Agric
COUNTRY /REGIO
s
p
Sai
Sai
-------
244 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
'S3
! CO
CN
O
a.
LU
if
*1
*l
s
o
J.
3 :
1
15
.1
II
! £
1
TS
S
n -S •
'3*
-------
Appendix C i 245
jjj
o
B!
U 0.
£•£
I
o
£•
1)1
IB
!J
8
z
3
.=
Deserti-
ficat
I'
I
CC
S
I
5
n
e
|
o
o
1
£
3
_(J
Fi~
fl
i
"c
o
u
."2
S
S
o
u
|
z
I
I
II
S
ga
E
ss
i 15
i S
IB
c
.S
."
S
•o
19
«
a
2
is I
i q> -^
>
S:I
-------
246 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
s
S?!
S'
U -5
8f
s
l
ources
I--E §
IS
e
3
Si
i Si
8
g
S
u.
i
2
.2
II
OPE /
!<3,
\l
3 =
S
S..
an Island
-------
I
»
11
f
"3
E£
J
H
E
,1
S
E
.5
!1
J S
Is
o
u
.s
c
a
iZ
I
z
O
i
0
1
Appendix C i 247
-------
248 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
g g s s
s s s s 2 s s
Is
= 3!
fl
C n
S § o S S
§ S S S S S
o o
s§
s s s q q
-------
Appendix D
Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions1
-------
250 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
This National Research Council study originated from a May 11, 2001, White House request to help inform the Administration's
review of U.S. climate change policy. In particular, the written request asked for the National Academies' "assistance in identify-
ing the areas in the science of climate change where there are the greatest certainties and uncertainties," and "views on whether
there are any substantive differences between the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] Reports and the IPCC
summaries." In addition, based on discussions with the Administration, a number of specific questions were incorporated into the
statement of task for the study.
SUMMARY
Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and sub-
surface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely
mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural
variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21 st century. Secondary
effects are suggested by computer model simulations and basic physical reasoning. These include increases in rainfall rates and
increased susceptibility of semi-arid regions to drought. The impacts of these changes will be critically dependent on the mag-
nitude of the warming and the rate with which it occurs.
The mid-range model estimate of human-induced global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
is based on the premise that the growth rate of climate forcing2 agents such as carbon dioxide will accelerate. The predicted
warming of 3°C (5.4°F) by the end of the 21st century is consistent with the assumptions about how clouds and atmospheric rel-
ative humidity will react to global warming. This estimate is also consistent with inferences about the sensitivity3 of climate
drawn from comparing the sizes of past temperature swings between ice ages and intervening warmer periods with the corre-
sponding changes in the climate forcing. This predicted temperature increase is sensitive to assumptions concerning future con-
centrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Hence, national policy decisions made now and in the longer-term future will
influence the extent of any damage suffered by vulnerable human populations and ecosystems later in this century. Because there
is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of green-
house gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to
future adjustments (either upward or downward).
Reducing the wide range of uncertainty inherent in current model predictions of global climate change will require major
advances in understanding and modeling of both (1) the factors that determine atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
and aerosols, and (2) the so-called "feedbacks" that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed increase in
greenhouse gases. There also is a pressing need for a global observing system designed for monitoring climate.
The committee generally agrees with the assessment of human-caused climate change presented in the IPCC Working Group I
(WGI) scientific report, but seeks here to articulate more clearly the level of confidence that can be ascribed to those assessments
and the caveats that need to be attached to them. This articulation may be helpful to policy makers as they consider a variety of
options for mitigation and/or adaptation. In the sections that follow, the committee provides brief responses to some of the key
questions related to climate change science. More detailed responses to these questions are located in the main body of the text.
What is the range of natural variability in climate?
The range of natural climate variability is known to be quite large (in excess of several degrees Celsius) on local and regional spa-
tial scales over periods as short as a decade. Precipitation also can vary widely. For example, there is evidence to suggest that
droughts as severe as the "dust bowl" of the 1930s were much more common in the central United States during the 10th to 14th
centuries than they have been in the more recent record. Mean temperature variations at local sites have exceeded 10°C (18°F)
in association with the repeated glacial advances and retreats that occurred over the course of the past million years. It is more
difficult to estimate the natural variability of global mean temperature because of the sparse spatial coverage of existing data and
difficulties in inferring temperatures from various proxy data. Nonetheless, evidence suggests that global warming rates as large
as 2°C (3.6°F) per millennium may have occurred during retreat of the glaciers following the most recent ice age.
1 The text in this appendix is from the foreword and summary of NRC 2001a, found at http://books.nap.edu/html/climatechange.
2 A climate forcing is defined as an imposed perturbation of the Earth's energy balance. Climate forcing is typically measured in watts per square meter (W/m2).
3 The sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed forcing is commonly expressed in terms of the global mean temperature change that would be expected after a time sufficiently
long for both the atmosphere and ocean to come to equilibrium with the change in climate forcing.
-------
Appendix D i 251
Are concentrations of greenhouse gases and other emissions that contribute to climate change increasing at an accel-
erating rate, and are different greenhouse gases and other emissions increasing at different rates? Is human activity the
cause of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases and other emissions that contribute to climate change?
The emissions of some greenhouse gases are increasing, but others are decreasing. In some cases the decreases are a result of pol-
icy decisions, while in other cases the reasons for the decreases are not well understood.
Of the greenhouse gases that are directly influenced by human activity, the most important are carbon dioxide, methane, ozone,
nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Aerosols released by human activities are also capable of influencing climate.
Table D-l lists the estimated climate forcing due to the presence of each of these "climate-forcing agents" in the atmosphere.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) extracted from ice cores drilled in Greenland and Antarctica have typically ranged from
near 190 parts per million by volume (ppmv) during the ice ages to near 280 ppmv during the warmer "interglacial" periods, like
the present one that began around 10,000 years ago. Concentrations did not rise much above 280 ppmv until the Industrial Rev-
olution. By 1958, when systematic atmospheric measurements began, they had reached 315 ppmv. They are currently -370 ppmv
and rising at a rate of 1.5 ppmv per year (slightly higher than the rate during the early years of the 43-year record). Human activ-
ities are responsible for the increase. The primary source, fossil fuel burning, has released roughly twice as much CO, as would
be required to account for the observed increase. Tropical deforestation also has contributed to CO2 releases during the past few
decades. The oceans and land biosphere have taken up the excess CO2.
Like CO2, methane (CH4) is more abundant in Earth's atmosphere now than at any time during the 400,000-year ice core record,
which dates back over a number of glacial/interglacial cycles. Concentrations increased rather smoothly by about 1 percent per
year from 1978 until about 1990. The rate of increase slowed and became more erratic during the 1990s. About two-thirds of
the current CH4 emissions are released by human activities, such as rice growing, the raising of cattle, coal mining, use of land-
fills, and natural gas handling—all of which have increased over the past 50 years.
A small fraction of the ozone (O3) produced by natural processes in the stratosphere mixes into the lower atmosphere. This "tro-
pospheric ozone" has been supplemented during the 20th century by additional O3, created locally by the action of sunlight
upon air polluted by exhausts from motor vehicles, emissions from fossil fuel burning power plants, and biomass burning.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is formed by many microbial reactions in soils and waters, including those acting on the increasing amounts
of nitrogen-containing fertilizers. Some synthetic chemical processes that release N2O have also been identified. Its concentra-
tion has increased approximately 13 percent in the past 200 years.
Atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons rose steadily following their first synthesis in 1928 and peaked in the early
1990s. Many other industrially useful fluorinated compounds—e.g., carbon tetrafluoride (CF4), and sulfur hexafluoride (SFg)—
have very long atmospheric lifetimes, which is of concern, even though their atmospheric concentrations have not yet produced
large radiative forcings. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are replacing CFCs, have a greenhouse effect, but it is much less
pronounced because of their shorter atmospheric lifetimes. The sensitivity and generality of modern analytical systems make it
quite unlikely that any currently significant greenhouse gases remain to be discovered.
What other emissions are contributing factors to climate change (e.g., aerosols, carbon monoxide, black carbon soot),
and what is their relative contribution to climate change?
Besides greenhouse gases, human activity also contributes to the atmospheric burden of aerosols, which include both sulfate par-
ticles and black carbon (soot). Both are unevenly distributed, owing to their short lifetimes in the atmosphere. Sulfate particles
scatter solar radiation back to space, thereby offsetting the greenhouse effect to some degree. Recent "clean coal technologies"
and use of low-sulfur fuels have resulted in decreasing sulfate concentrations, especially in North America, reducing this offset.
Black carbon aerosols are end-products of the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass burning (forest fires and land
clearing). They impact radiation budgets both directly and indirectly,- they are believed to contribute to global warming,
although their relative importance is difficult to quantify at this point.
-------
252 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
How long does it take to reduce the buildup of greenhouse gases and other emissions that contribute to climate
change? Do different greenhouse gases and other emissions have different drawdown periods?
A removal time of 100 years means that much, but not all, of the climate-forcing agent would be gone in 100 years. Typically,
the amount remaining at the end of 100 years is 37 percent,- after 200 years, 14 percent,- after 300 years, 5 percent,- and after 400
years, 2 percent (see Table D-l).
TABLE D-i Removal Times and Climate-Forcing Values for Specified Atmospheric Gases and Aerosols
A removal time of 100 years means that much, but not all, of the climate-forcing agent would be gone in 100 years. Typically, the amount
remaining at the end of 100 years is 37 percent; after 200 years, 14 percent; after 300 years, 5 percent; and after 400 years, 2 percent.
Climate-Forcing Agents
Approximate Removal Times
Climate Forcing Up to the Year 2000
(Watts/m2)
Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Tropospheric Ozone
Nitrous Oxide
Perfluorocarbon Compounds
(including SF6)
Fine Aerosols
Sulfate
Black Carbon
>100 years
10 years
10-100 days
100 years
>1,000 years
10 days
10 days
1.3-1.5
0.5-0.7
0.25-0.75
0.1-0.2
0.01
-0.3 to -1.0
0.1-0.8
Is climate change occurring? If so, how?
Weather station records and ship-based observations indicate that global mean surface air temperature warmed between about
0.4° and 0.8°C (0.7° and 1.5°F) during the 20th century. Although the magnitude of warming varies locally, the warming trend
is spatially widespread and is consistent with an array of other evidence detailed in this report. The ocean, which represents the
largest reservoir of heat in the climate system, has warmed by about 0.05°C (0.09°F) averaged over the layer extending from the
surface down to 10,000 feet, since the 1950s.
The observed warming has not proceeded at a uniform rate. Virtually all the 20th-century warming in global surface air tem-
perature occurred between the early 1900s and the 1940s and during the past few decades. The troposphere warmed much more
during the 1970s than during the two subsequent decades, whereas Earth's surface warmed more during the past two decades
than during the 1970s. The causes of these irregularities and the disparities in the timing are not completely understood. One
striking change of the past 35 years is the cooling of the stratosphere at altitudes of -13 miles, which has tended to be con-
centrated in the wintertime polar cap region.
Are greenhouse gases causing climate change?
The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in green-
house gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue. The stated degree of
confidence in the IPCC assessment is higher today than it was 10—or even 5—years ago. However, uncertainty remains because
of (1) the level of natural variability inherent in the climate system on time scales of decades to centuries, (2) the questionable
ability of models to accurately simulate natural variability on those long time scales, and (3) the degree of confidence that can
be placed on reconstructions of global mean temperature over the past millennium based on proxy evidence. Despite the uncer-
tainties, there is general agreement that the observed warming is real and has been particularly strong within the past 20 years.
Whether it is consistent with the change that would be expected in response to human activities is dependent upon what
assumptions one makes about the time history of atmospheric concentrations of the various forcing agents, particularly aerosols.
-------
Appendix D i 253
By how much will temperatures change over the next 100 years and where?
Climate change simulations for the period of 1990 to 2100 based on the IPCC emissions scenarios yield a globally averaged sur-
face temperature increase by the end of the century of 1.4-5.8°C (2.5-10.4°F) relative to 1990. The wide range of uncertainty
in these estimates reflects both the different assumptions about future concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the var-
ious scenarios considered by the IPCC and the differing climate sensitivities of the various climate models used in the simula-
tions. The range of climate sensitivities implied by these predictions is generally consistent with previously reported values.
The predicted warming is larger over higher latitudes than over lower latitudes, especially during winter and spring, and larger
over land than over sea. Rainfall rates and the frequency of heavy precipitation events are predicted to increase, particularly over
the higher latitudes. Higher evaporation rates would accelerate the drying of soils following rain events, resulting in lower rela-
tive humidities and higher daytime temperatures, especially during the warm season. The likelihood that this effect could prove
important is greatest in semi-arid regions, such as the U.S. Great Plains. These predictions in the IPCC report are consistent with
current understanding of the processes that control local climate.
In addition to the IPCC scenarios for future increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, the committee considered a scenario
based on an energy policy designed to keep climate change moderate in the next 50 years. This scenario takes into account not
only the growth of carbon emissions, but also the changing concentrations of other greenhouse gases and aerosols.
Sufficient time has elapsed now to enable comparisons between observed trends in the concentrations of CO, and other green-
house gases with the trends predicted in previous IPCC reports. The increase of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the past
decade has averaged 0.6 percent per year, which is somewhat below the range of IPCC scenarios, and the same is true for atmos-
pheric methane concentrations. It is not known whether these slowdowns in growth rate will persist.
How much of the expected climate change is the consequence of climate feedback processes (e.g., water vapor, clouds,
snow packs)?
The contribution of feedbacks to climate change depends upon "climate sensitivity," as described in the report. If a central esti-
mate of climate sensitivity is used, about 40 percent of the predicted warming is due to the direct effects of greenhouse gases and
aerosols,- the other 60 percent is caused by feedbacks.
Water vapor feedback (the additional greenhouse effect accruing from increasing concentrations of atmospheric water vapor as
the atmosphere warms) is the most important feedback in the models. Unless the relative humidity in the tropical middle and
upper troposphere drops, this effect is expected to raise the temperature response to increases in human-induced greenhouse gas
concentrations by a factor of 1.6. The ice-albedo feedback (the reduction in the fraction of incoming solar radiation reflected
back to space as snow and ice cover recede) also is believed to be important. Together, these two feedbacks amplify the simu-
lated climate response to the greenhouse gas forcing by a factor of 2.5. In addition, changes in cloud cover, in the relative
amounts of high versus low clouds, and in the mean and vertical distributions of relative humidity could either enhance or reduce
the amplitude of the warming.
Much of the difference in predictions of global warming by various climate models is attributable to the fact that each model
represents these processes in its own particular way. These uncertainties will remain until a more fundamental understanding of
the processes that control atmospheric relative humidity and clouds is achieved.
What will be the consequences (e.g., extreme weather, health effects) of increases of various magnitudes?
In the near term, agriculture and forestry are likely to benefit from CO, fertilization and an increased water efficiency of some
plants at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The optimal climate for crops may change, requiring significant regional adap-
tations. Some models project an increased tendency toward drought over semi-arid regions, such as the U.S. Great Plains. Hydro-
logic impacts could be significant over the western United States, where much of the water supply is dependent on the amount
of snow pack and the timing of the spring runoff. Increased rainfall rates could impact pollution runoff and flood control. With
higher sea level, coastal regions could be subject to increased wind and flood damage, even if tropical storms do not change in
intensity. A significant warming also could have far-reaching implications for ecosystems. The costs and risks involved are diffi-
cult to quantify at this point and are, in any case, beyond the scope of this brief report.
-------
254 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
Health outcomes in response to climate change are the subject of intense debate. Climate is one of a number of factors influ-
encing the incidence of infectious disease. Cold-related stress would decline in a warmer climate, while heat stress and smog-
induced respiratory illnesses in major urban areas would increase, if no adaptation occurred. Over much of the United States,
adverse health outcomes would likely be mitigated by a strong public health system, relatively high levels of public awareness,
and a high standard of living.
Global warming could well have serious adverse societal and ecological impacts by the end of this century, especially if globally-
averaged temperature increases approach the upper end of the IPCC projections. Even in the more conservative scenarios, the mod-
els project temperatures and sea levels that continue to increase well beyond the end of this century, suggesting that assessments
that examine only the next 100 years may underestimate the magnitude of the eventual impacts.
Has science determined whether there is a "safe" level of concentration of greenhouse gases?
The question of whether there exists a "safe" level of concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be answered directly because it
would require a value judgment of what constitutes an acceptable risk to human welfare and ecosystems in various parts of the
world, as well as a more quantitative assessment of the risks and costs associated with the various impacts of global warming. In
general, however, risk increases with increases in both the rate and the magnitude of climate change.
What are the substantive differences between the IPCC reports and the summaries?
The Committee finds that the full IPCC Working Group I (WGI) report is an admirable summary of research activities in cli-
mate science, and the full report is adequately summarized in the Technical Summary. The full WGI report and its Technical
Summary are not specifically directed at policy. The Summary for Policymakers reflects less emphasis on communicating the basis for
uncertainty and stronger emphasis on areas of major concern associated with human-induced climate change. This change in
emphasis appears to be the result of a summary process in which scientists work with policymakers on the document. Written
responses from U.S. coordinating and lead scientific authors to the committee indicate, however, that (a) no changes were made
without the consent of the convening lead authors (this group represents a fraction of the lead and contributing authors) and
(b) most changes that did occur lacked significant impact.
It is critical that the IPCC process remain truly representative of the scientific community. The committee's concerns focus pri-
marily on whether the process is likely to become less representative in the future because of the growing voluntary time com-
mitment required to participate as a lead or coordinating author and the potential that the scientific process will be viewed as
being too heavily influenced by governments which have specific postures with regard to treaties, emission controls, and other
policy instruments. The United States should promote actions that improve the IPCC process, while also ensuring that its
strengths are maintained.
What are the specific areas of science that need to be studied further, in order of priority, to advance our under-
standing of climate change?
Making progress in reducing the large uncertainties in projections of future climate will require addressing a number of funda-
mental scientific questions relating to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the behavior of the climate sys-
tem. Issues that need to be addressed include (1) the future use of fossil fuels,- (2) the future emissions of methane,- (3) the fraction
of the future fossil-fuel carbon that will remain in the atmosphere and provide radiative forcing versus exchange with the oceans
or net exchange with the land biosphere,- (4) the feedbacks in the climate system that determine both the magnitude of the
change and the rate of energy uptake by the oceans, which together determine the magnitude and time history of the tempera-
ture increases for a given radiative forcing,- (5) details of the regional and local climate change consequent to an overall level of
global climate change,- (6) the nature and causes of the natural variability of climate and its interactions with forced changes,- and
(7) the direct and indirect effects of the changing distributions of aerosols. Maintaining a vigorous, ongoing program of basic
research, funded and managed independently of the climate assessment activity, will be crucial for narrowing these uncertain-
ties.
-------
Appendix D i 255
In addition, the research enterprise dealing with environmental change and the interactions of human society with the environ-
ment must be enhanced. This includes support of (1) interdisciplinary research that couples physical, chemical, biological, and
human systems,- (2) an improved capability of integrating scientific knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective decision-
support systems,- and (3) an ability to conduct research at the regional or sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of
human and natural systems to multiple stresses.
An effective strategy for advancing the understanding of climate change also will require (1) a global observing system in sup-
port of long-term climate monitoring and prediction,- (2) concentration on large-scale modeling through increased, dedicated
supercomputing and human resources,- and (3) efforts to ensure that climate research is supported and managed to ensure inno-
vation, effectiveness, and efficiency.
-------
Appendix E
Bibliography
-------
Appendix E i 257
Academy for Educational Development, "Let Kids Lead."
American Planning Association, Growing Smarf" Legislative Guidebook.
Bove et al. 1998—Bove, M.C., J.B. Eisner, C.W. Landsea, X. Niu, and JJ. O'Brien, "Effect of El Nino on U.S. Landfalling
Hurricanes, Revisited," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 79, pp. 2477—82.
Business Roundtable 2001—Unleashing Innovation: The Right Approach to Climate Change, Turning the Promise of Technology into Reality
(Washington, DC: Business Roundtable).
Changnon et al. 1996—Changnon, S.S., K.E. Kunkel, and B.C. Reinke, "Impacts and Response to the 1995 Heat Wave: A Call
to Action," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 77, pp. 1497—1506.
EOF 1993—Executive Office of the President, Climate Change Action Plan (Washington, DC).
EOF 2001a—Executive Office of the President, Action on Climate Change Review Initiatives, Washington, DC.
EOF 200ib—Executive Office of the President, Climate Change Review—Initial Report, Washington, DC.
Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies,
4-H Youth Curriculum, "Going Places, Making Choices."
Groisman et al. 2001—Groisman, P. Ya, R.W Knight, and T.R. Karl, "Heavy Precipitation and High Streamflow in the
Contiguous United States: Trends in the Twentieth Century," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 82, pp. 219—46.
Hartmann, Dennis, Reports to the Nation on Our Changing Planet: Our Changing Climate (Boulder, CO: University Center for
Atmospheric Research and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Fall 1997).
IGFA 2000—International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research, National Updates (Oslo, Norway: IGFA
Secretariat).
IPCC 1991—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies (Washington, DC: Island
Press).
IPCC 1996a—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995.- Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate
Change-. Scientific-Technical Analyses, R.T Watson et al., eds. (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press).
IPCC 1996b—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, J.T Houghton,
E.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callandar, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, eds. (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University
Press),
IPCC 1998—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, R.T.
Watson et al., eds. (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press).
IPCC 1999—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere: A Special Report of IPCC Working
Groups I and III in Collaboration with the Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, J.E.
Penner, D.H. Lister, D.J. Griggs, DJ. Dokken, andM. McFarland, eds. (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press).
-------
258 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
IPCC 2000a—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories,}. Penman, D. Kruger, I. Galbally, T. Hiraishi, B. Nyenzi, S. Emmanul, L. Buendia, R. Hoppaus, T.
Martinsen, J. Meijer, K. Miwa, and K. Tanabe, eds. (Japan: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies),
IPCC 2000b—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Trends in Technology Transfer: Financial Resource Flows," in
Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology Transfer (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press).
IPCC 2001a—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001.- Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution
of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, }.}. McCarthy, O.F Canziani, N.A.
Leary, D J. Dokken, and K.S. White, eds. (Cambridge, U.K., and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press).
IPCC 2001b—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001.- Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, B. Metz, O. Davidson, R. Swart, andj. Pan, eds. (Cambridge,
U.K., and New York, NY Cambridge University Press),
IPCC 2001c—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001.- Synthesis Report. Contribution to the Third Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, R.T Watson, D.L. Albritton, T. Barker, LA. Bashmakov, O. Canziani, R.
Christ, U. Cubasch, O. Davidson, H. Gitay, D. Griggs, J. Houghton, J. House, Z. Kundzewicz, M. Lai, N. Leary, C. Magadza,
J J. McCarthy, J.F.B. Mitchell, J.R. Moreira, M. Munasinghe, I. Noble, R. Pachauri, B. Pittock, M. Prather, R.G. Richels, J.B.
Robinson, J. Sathaye, S. Schneider, R. Scholes, T. Stocker, N. Sundararaman, R. Swart, T. Taniguchi, and D. Zhou, eds.
(Cambridge, U.K., and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press),
IPCC 2001d—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001.- The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I
to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T Houghton, Y Ding, D J. Griggs, M. Noguer, PJ. van
der Linden, and D. Xiasou, eds. (Cambridge, U.K., and New York, NY Cambridge University Press).
IPCC/UNEP/OECD/IEA 1997—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Environment Programme,
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International Energy Agency, Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Paris, France: IPCC/UNEP/OECD/IEA).
Karl et al. 1995—Karl, T.R., V.E. Derr, D.R. Easterling, C.K. Folland, D.J. Hofmann, S. Levitus, N. Nicholls, D.E. Parker, and
G.W Withee, "Critical Issues for Long-Term Climate Monitoring," Climatic Change, vol. 31.
Keeling, C.D., and T.P. Whorf, "Atmospheric CO2 Records from Sites in the SIO Air Sampling Network," in Trends: A
Compendium of Data on Global Change (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, 2000).
McCabe, G.J., and D.M. Wolock, "General-Circulation-Model Simulations of Future Snowpack in the Western United States,
Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol. 35 (1999), pp. 1473—84.
Mills et al. 2001—Mills, Evan, Eugene Lecomte, and Andrew Peara, U.S. Insurance Industry Perspectives on Global Climate Change
(Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Energy),
NAAG 2002—National Agriculture Assessment Group, Agriculture-. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, J.
Reilly et al., eds. (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press and U.S. Department of Agriculture, for the U.S. Global
Change Research Program),
NASA 2001—National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Earth Observing System Global Change Media Directory 2001
(Greenbelt, MD: Earth Observing System Project Science Office, Goddard Space Flight Center).
-------
Appendix E i 259
NAST 2000—National Assessment Synthesis Team, Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate
Variability and Change-. Overview (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press and U.S. Global Change Research Program).
< http ://www.usgcrp. gov >
NAST 2001—National Assessment Synthesis Team, Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate
Variability and Change-. Foundation (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press and U.S. Global Change Research Program).
< http ://www.usgcrp. gov >
NCAG 2000—National Coastal Assessment Group, Coastal. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
(Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for the U.S. Global
Change Research Program),
NEPD Group 2001—National Energy Policy Development Group, National Energy Policy (Washington, DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office),
NFAG 2001—National Forest Assessment Group, Forests: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (Washington,
DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, for the U.S. Global Change Research Program),
NHAG 2000—National Health Assessment Group (J.A. Patz, M.A. McGeehin, S.M. Bernard, K.L. Ebi, PR. Epstein, A.
Grambsch, DJ. Gubler, P. Reiter, I. Romeiu, J.B. Rose, et al.), "The Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change for the
United States: Executive Summary of the Report of the Health Sector of the U.S. National Assessment," Environmental Health
Perspectives, vol. 108, pp. 367—76.
NHAG 2001—National Health Assessment Group, Health: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (Washington,
DC: Johns Hopkins University, School of Public Health, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, for the U.S. Global
Change Research Program),
NJ 2000—State of New Jersey, Department of Environmental Protection, Mew Jersey Sustainability Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan
(December 1999, 1st reprint May 2000).
NRC 1999—National Research Council, Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems (Washington, DC: National Academy Press).
NRC 200la—National Research Council, Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Climate Change Science-. An Analysis of
Some Key Questions (Washington, DC: National Academy Press),
NRC 200ib—National Research Council, Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and Human Health, Under
the Weather-. Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease (Washington, DC: National Academy Press).
NSC 2000—National Safety Council, Reporting on Climate Change: Understanding the Science (Washington, DC: National Safety
Council, Environmental Health Center),
NSTC 2000—National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources,
Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Our Changing Planet: TheFY 2001 U.S. Global Change Research Program (U.S.
Government Printing Office: Washington, DC).
NWAG 2000—National Water Assessment Group, Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (Washington,
DC: U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior, and Pacific Institute, for the U.S. Global Change Research
Program),
OECD 2000—Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, Environmental Goods and Services: An Assessment of the
Environmental, Economic and Development Benefits of Further Global Trade Liberalisation (Paris, France: OECD, Trade Directorate &
Environment Directorate).
-------
260 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
OMB 2001—Office of Management and Budget, Report to Congress on Federal Climate Change Expenditures (Washington, DC).
OOSDP 1995—Ocean Observing System Development Panel, Scientific Design for the Common Module of the Global Ocean Observing
System and the Global Climate Observing System-. An Ocean Observing System for Climate.
< http://www-ocean.tamu.edu/OOSDP/FinalRept/t_of_c.html>
Powell et al. 1993—Powell, D.S., J.L. Faulkner, D.R. Darr, Z. Zhu, and D.W. MacCleery, Forest Resources of the United States-i992,
Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-234. (Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S.
Department of Agriculture).
Timmermann et al. 1999—Timmermann, A., J. Oberhuber, A. Bacher, M. Esch, M. Latif, and E. Roeckner, "Increased El Nino
Frequency in a Climate Model Forced by Future Greenhouse Warming," Mature, vol. 398, pp. 694—97.
UNFCCC—United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UMFCCC Guidelines on Reporting and Review.
US-AEP/USAID 2000—United States-Asia Environmental Partnership/U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S.
Environment Industry Export Competitiveness in Asia.
USAID 2000a—U.S. Agency for International Development, Annual Report 2000.- EcoLinks (Washington, DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office).
USAID 2000b—U.S. Agency for International Development, Market Opportunities for Climate Change Technologies and Services in
Developing Countries (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office).
USAID 2000c—U.S. Agency for International Development, Partnership Grants 2000.- EcoLinks (Washington, DC: U.S.
Government Printing Office).
USAID 2001a—U.S. Agency for International Development, EcoLinks (fact sheet) (Washington, DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office).
USAID 2001b—U.S. Agency for International Development, "Towards a Water Secure Future: USAID's Obligations in Water
Resources Management for FY2000," Part II (Draft, May 18, 2001).
U.S. Congress 1993—U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Preparing for an Uncertain Climate, vols. I and II
(Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office), OTA-O-567 and 568.
U.S. CSP 1997—U.S. Country Studies Program, Global Climate Change Mtigation Assessment Results for Fourteen Transition and
Developing Countries.
U.S. CSP 1998—U.S. Country Studies Program, Climate Change Assessments by Developing and Transition Countries.
USDA 2000—U.S. Department of Agriculture, Submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on
Methodological Issues Related to Carbon Sinks.
USDA 2001—U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Agricultural Policy: Taking Stockfor the Mew Century (Washington, DC:
U.S. Government Printing Office), SN-001-000-04696-9.
USDA/ERS 2000—U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Agricultural Resources and Environmental Indicators:
2000 (Washington, DC: USDA).
USDA/ERS 2001a—U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, "Major Uses of Land in the United States,"
Marlow Vesterby and Kenneth S. Krupa, eds., ERS Statistical Bulletin No. 973 (Washington, DC: USDA/ERS).
-------
Appendix E i 261
USDA/ERS 2001b—U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Major Land Uses data files, October 2001.
USDA/NRCS 2000—U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Summary Report: 1997 National
Resources Inventory (Ames, IA: Iowa State University Statistical Laboratory).
USDA/NRCS 2001—U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Food and Agricultural Policy:
Taking Stock/or the Mew Century,
U.S. DOC/BEA 2000—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts
(Washington, DC: DOC/BEA).
U.S. DOC/Census 2000—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States-. 2000,
120th edition (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office),
U.S. DOC/Census 2001—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "States Ranked by Numeric Population
Change: 1990 to 2000," data released on April 2, 2001.
U.S. DOC/NOAA 1998a—U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Climatic Data Center, Historical Climatology Series 5-i (Asheville, NC NOAA).
U.S. DOC/NOAA 1998b—U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Climatic Data Center, Historical Climatology Series 5-2 (Asheville, NC: NOAA).
U.S. DOC/NOAA 1999a—U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Climatic Data Center, Historical Climatology Series 5-i (Asheville, NC: NOAA).
U.S. DOC/NOAA 1999b—U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Climatic Data Center, Historical Climatology Series 5-2 (Asheville, NC: NOAA).
U.S. DOC/NOAA 2001a—U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Climatic Data Center, Historical Climatology Series 5-i (Asheville, NC: NOAA).
U.S. DOC/NOAA 2001b—U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Climatic Data Center, Historical Climatology Series 5-2 (Asheville, NC: NOAA).
U.S. DOC/NOAA 2001c—U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National
Climatic Data Center, The U.S. Detailed National Report on Systematic Observations for Climate (Silver Spring, MD: NOAA).
U.S. DOE/EIA 1999—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, A Look at Residential Energy Consumption:
1997 (Washington, DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0632(97).
U.S. DOE/EIA 2000a—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1999
(Washington, DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0384(99).
-------
262 i U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT 2002
U.S. DOE/EIA 2000b—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Annual 1999, vols. II and
III (Washington, DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0348(99)/2.
U.S. DOE/EIA 2000c—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United
States, 1999 (Washington, DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0573(99).
U.S. DOE/EIA 2000d—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (Washington,
DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0202(00). .
U.S. DOE/EIA 2001a—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2002
(Washington, DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0384(2000).
U.S. DOE/EIA 2001b—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review, 2000
(Washington, DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0384(2000).
U.S. DOE/EIA 2001c—U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United
States, 2000 (Washington, DC: U.S. DOE), DOE/EIA-0573(2000).
U.S. DOE/OPIA 2001—U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Policy and International Affairs, preliminary data.
U.S. DOL/BLS—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Current Population Survey: Household Data
(2000)—Annual Averages," Table 17.
U.S. DOS 1994—U.S. Department of State, Office of Global Change, U.S. Climate Action Report: Submission of the United States of
America Under the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOS).
U.S. DOS 1997—U.S. Department of State, Office of Global Change, Climate Action Report: 1997 Submission of the United States of
America Under the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOS).
U.S. DOS 2000—U.S. Department of State, United States Submission on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, U.S. submission to
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
U.S. DOT/BTS 2000a—U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Air Carrier Traffic Statistics
Monthly, Dec. 2000/1999, Dec. 1999/1998, Dec. 1998/1997 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT).
U.S. DOT/BTS 2000b—U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics-.
2000 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT), BTS01-01.
U.S. DOT/FAA 1998—U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation
1996 (Washington, DC: U.S. DOT), BTS99-03.
U.S. DOT/FHWA 1999—U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Draft 1998 Highway Statistics
(Washington, DC: DOT/FHWA), report FHWA-PL-96-023-annual.
U.S. DOT and U.S. EPA—U.S. Department of Transportation and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "It All Adds Up To
Cleaner Air."
U.S. EPA 1989—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, J.B. Smith
and D.A. Tirpak, eds. (Washington, DC: U.S. EPA), 230-05-89-050.
U.S. EPA 1999—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Methane Emissions 1990—2020.- Inventories, Projections, and Opportunities
for Reductions (Washington, DC: U.S. EPA),
-------
Appendix E i 263
U.S. EPA 2000—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, National Air Pollutant
Emissions Trends Report, 1900—1999 (Research Triangle Park, NO U.S. EPA),
U.S. EPA 2001a—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Draft Addendum to U.S. Methane Emissions 1990—2020.- Inventories, Projections,
and Opportunities for Reductions (Washington, DC: U.S. EPA),
U.S. EPA 200 ib—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Draft U.S. Nitrous Oxide Emissions 1990—2020.- Inventories, Projections, and
Opportunities for Reductions (Washington, DC: U.S. EPA),
U.S. EPA 200 Ic—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Improving Air Quality Through Land Use Activities.
U.S. EPA 2001d—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990—1999
(Washington, DC: U.S. EPA), 236-R-01-001.
U.S. EPA 2001e—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. High GWP Emissions 1990—2010.- Inventories, Projections, and
Opportunities for Reductions (Washington, DC: U.S. EPA),
U.S. EPA, NASA, and NOAA 1999—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Change Presentation Kit,
U.S. EPA and NPS 2001—U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Park Service, Climate Change, Wildlife, and
Wildlands: A Toolkit for Teachers and Interpreters,
USGCRP 1998—2000—U.S. Global Change Research Program, Acclimations (on-line newsletter of the National Assessment of
the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change),
WMO 1997—World Meteorological Organization, GCOS/GTOS Plan for Terrestrial Climate-related Observations, version 2.0,
GCOS-32, WMO Technical Document No. 796 (Geneva, Switzerland: WMO).
World Bank 2000—World Development Indicators 2000 (Washington, DC: World Bank).
-------
------- |