2009^5^
              1.1
               (USEPA)
            it^J (LMOP)


  SI (Eastern Research Group, Inc.)
Clint Burklin, ^^
         EP-W-06-022
                28

-------
                                                                                    >
                                                                                                   >   L0>
                                                 tti
2009^5^

-------
                                              (IPCC)

2009^5^

-------
i.o
2.0
      1.1
           1.1.1

           1.1.2

           1.1.3
      1.2
            1.2.1
      1.3  IIM
      2.1

      2.2

      2.3
 i.O
i
v
v
vi

1-1

1-3

1-4

1-5

1-7

1-7

1-7

1-11

2-1

2-1

2-7

2-9

3-1
2009^5^

-------
   i



   2
                        (k)
2009^5^

-------
                                             - (BP1- ^7^^t; 2
                                       3 - &m%m ,
                                             (tiil^^T) o m
                             VI
2009^5^

-------
                                                           Vll
2009^5^

-------
                                   i.o
   (20 tf
                 ¥  (k)  ;
                         J  (Lo)
                                     i-i
2009^5^

-------

                       Q  --L-T  YkL
                       VM-            KL
              Q
               CC
              ffi^ft^ilil^ffllPCC 2006^-5

                                    1-2
2009^5^

-------

M
                                                
-------
1.1.1
                 (k)

                                                                    :   CD
  MS,   (2)
                                             (3) pHft^P (4) i
                                                             fun.
                                                                         2006
                                    1-4
2009^5^

-------

                                                     (k)
                                                           0.04
                                                           0.11
                                                           0.18

1.1.2
                           (Lo)
                                                                   L0{t/5!ft
                                                                              (EPA
1991)
                                          1-5
2009^5^

-------
2:
                                                       (Lo)
                                                                      >30%
                                            70
                                  35
                                            56
                                  28
                                            56
                                  42
2009^5^
                                         1-6

-------

                                                                                  ¥o
1.2
1.2.1
                                            1-7
2009^5^

-------

                                                  ,





                                                           %, BP85%
                            3:
                                                 0%
3%

                                                 0%
5%
       ±1
                                                 10%
0%
                                                 0%
10%
                                                 0%
10%
                                1-8
2009^5^

-------
                                                 0%
                             5%
                                                 0%
                             5%
        (iMv) ?
                 80-100%
             95%
                 60 - 80%
             75%
                 40 - 60%
in
55%
                 20 - 40%
IV
35%
                  < 20%
V
15%

-gs^/Lmm;
                                  :^C  (fl^O
2009^5^
                                1-9

-------

                                                          ^M)
                                                                 ^^> M

                                  1-10
2009^5^

-------
                                                          (IMV)



                             80-100%
                              60 - 80%
40 - 60%
20 - 40%
                                20
                                                in
                                                IV
                   V
1.3
                                     > Windows



                                        ("LMOP China Model vl-l.xls")  ,
2009^5^
                                    1-11

-------
ftff
                                                      1-12
2009^5^

-------
                      2.0
2.1
am\"
                                           (i^lSD

                              2-1
2009^5^

-------

                                               diijv)
                                      2-2
2009^5^

-------
                          80-100%
                          60 - 80%
                          40 - 60%
                          20 - 40%
   IV
                            < 20%
   V
— jis ±sii
r
                                                        ^25%M4o%± fg] ,
                               1-
                  1993
                  2013
                  50
                                                 il
                                                d
                                                Jil
                                                J
                                                d
                                                3
                                  2-3
2009^5^

-------
                                   2-
  2  '4'^>fnSfl
  3  &Bfil^
                    L0{t>

                         o


       {to                                                                S





                             ^${tB,
                                        2-4
2009^5^

-------

                 121,
               4.-jj 4-RJ-H-3JZ/db/j=r   it t;^
                              ,                                        B±
                                                   2-5
2009^5^

-------
                                 X
                                         50%
                                       3-
  HSWftilSKJWjA,
         lair -sail,
                                      0.11
                    U (^**
                    tt**.*
 56
64%
                                     a*
                                                       4^f itA.


























1

*£w
1993
1994


1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2
i£«Sm
$%/*t=|
20.671
637.940


683.853
796.020
839.742
891.953
581.686
657.914
794.154
1,176,472
1,212,000
1,343,320
1,477,016
1,681,515
1,788,500
1,860,040
1,934,442
1,354,819
1,435,292
1,227,323
0
3
B«*ftft
(Wfej
20,671
658,611


2,052,592
2,848,612
3,688,354
4,580,307
5,161,993
5,819,907
6,614,061
7,790,533
9,002,533
10,345,853
11,822,869
13,504,384
15,292,884
17,152,924
19,087,366
20,442,185
21,877,477
23,104,800
23,104,800
4

vtiliSX^
k 64'
k 64'


k 64'
k 64'
k 64"
' 64'
k 64'
k 64'
k 64'
k 64'
k 64'
k 64'
k 64'
k 64"
k 64'
k 64'
k 64'
k 64'
r 64'
k 64"
k 64'
5
£B»mHtt*
(AL /? ^K-/'1]1* HT 5















2,468
3,947






t^-^fa»i
il^BllliS^


i WIPE*] it mtKB





















2009^5^
                                            2-6

-------
2.2

                                       (50%,
                                       2-7
2009^5^

-------
ifiBmVWffi

iftt
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
199B
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
200B
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
201 B
2019
2020
ifjsam
BE*
20,671
637,940
710,128
683,853
796,020
839,742
891 ,953
581 ,686
657,914
794,154
1,176,472
1,212,000
1,343,320
1,477,016
1,681,515
1,788,500
1,860,040
1,934,442
1,354,819
1,435,292
1,227,323
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4t&#«ft&:flBtii&
«ISH£M, 0fJi«Tp*PiSft
ess
sm
BE
20,671
658,611
1,368,739
2,052,592
2,848,612
3,688,354
4,580,307
5,161,993
5,819,907
6,614,061
7,790,533
9,002,533
10,345,853
11,822,869
13,504,384
15,292,884
17,152,924
19,087,366
20,442,185
21,877,477
23,104,800
23,104,800
23,104,800
23,104,800
23,104,800
23,104,800
23,104,800
23,104,800
1SHH
j*^
(-£^*
*»)
0
0
15
29
41
55
68
81
85
91
99
115
130
147
164
185
205
225
245
250
256
256
230
206
184
165
148
133
(-£^*
'hot)
0
28
879
1,737
2,472
3,280
4,062
4,832
5,108
5,456
5,951
6,905
7,808
8,792
9,853
1 1 ,077
12,317
13,523
14,704
14,985
15,345
15,389
13,786
12,350
1 1 ,064
9,911
8,879
7,954
RSl&^
(%)
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
64%
BWsEKMR^SSE
JSH*t@«t^
(-£^#:
»»)
0
0
9
18
26
35
43
51
54
58
63
73
83
93
105
118
131
144
156
159
163
164
146
131
118
105
94
85
(-£^#:
'hBt)
0
18
560
1,108
1,576
2,091
2,589
3,081
3,256
3,478
3,793
4,402
4,978
5,605
6,281
7,062
7,852
8,621
9,374
9,553
9,783
9,811
8,789
7,873
7,053
6,318
5,660
5,071
rsitK
3£
(BE)
0
1,163
36,937
73,046
103,916
137,881
170,769
203,168
214,735
229,386
250,176
290,313
328,268
369,659
414,261
465,723
517,844
568,562
618,183
630,021
645,154
647,009
579,613
519,237
465,150
416,698
373,292
334,408
IKflffl^B
mm
SSifcrn-
pMWvMit)
0
298
9,452
18,692
26,591
35,282
43,698
51 ,988
54,948
58,697
64,017
74,287
84,000
94,591
106,004
119,173
132,510
145,488
158,185
161,214
165,087
165,561
148,316
132,866
119,026
106,628
95,521
85,571
£fe3iB
mm
£thmb
0HC)
0.000
0.028
0.902
1.783
2.537
3.366
4.169
4.960
5.242
5.600
6.107
7.087
8.014
9.024
10.113
1 1 .369
12.641
13.880
15.091
15.380
15.749
15.795
14.149
12.675
1 1 .355
10.172
9.113
8.163
2009^5^
                                                        2-8

-------
2.3
                                                     2-9
2009^5^

-------
                                                        5-
     12,000
ft
*
K
]S   10,000
ja
if    e.ooo
          1993  199B   2003   200B  2013   2018   2023  202B   2033   203B  2043   2048   2053  2058   20E.3   2068  2073   2078   2083  2088
                                                                2-10
2009^5^

-------
                                  3.0
                  1991^,
                                                        Research Triangle Park,
               j, 1998^:    {Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factor s, AP-42, Volume

1: Stationary Point and Area Sources)) , 5th ed., Chapter 2.40   Office of Air Quality Planning

and Standards, HBWilH^jlj, Research Triangle Park,
               , 2005^:

EPA-600/R-05/047 (2005^5^ )
                                             (LandGEM) ,  $#3.02

                                                Research Triangle Park,
IPCC,2006^.-
                                                                      (IPCC),
               , 2007^.
                                                                   (2007^3^) )) „
tH±ia-*tfSMffiffl¥Jl
2009^5^
                                       3-1

-------