USEPA Office of Water - TMDL Program Results Analysis Fact Sheet 1 - May 5, 2009
Fact Sheet:
The TMDL Program Results Analysis Project
For much of the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program's history, it has been challenging to track
program progress and related environmental improvements. Tens of thousands of TMDLs have been
developed in recent years, but an unknown number of these have been implemented on the ground.
Impaired waters recovery often takes several years, and monitoring can be complex and costly - thus many
results may not have occurred yet, or are undocumented. Further, implementing a TMDL often involves
numerous pollution control practices subsequent to completing the TMDL, and it can be difficult to pinpoint
the causes of success or failure as TMDL-related. In fact, a TMDL is a technical plan, one stage in a
sequence by which other programs implement that plan - thus, what specifically are TMDL program results?
Results Analysis involves assessing environmental outcomes, their probable causes, and programmatic
progress in order to generate the insights needed to make program improvements. The EPA's National
TMDL Program is conducting the TMDL Program Results Analysis Project to assess impaired waters
program progress at stages before, during, and after the TMDL program, and provide insights for TMDL
program improvement. The project focuses on building and analyzing evidence of program performance in
303(d) listing, TMDL development, approved TMDL alternatives (e.g., category 4b projects), implementation
of permits and non-point pollution management practices, and post-project monitoring. Results analysis will
help us make program improvements based on evidence of environmental results and their probable causes.
The project's basic approach follows four steps:
1. Identify expected program results (see Fig. 1), the state of knowledge about them, and gaps
2. Identify key program elements and measures (see Fig. 2) and ways for analyzing them
3. Carry out program analysis and interpret informative patterns
4. Assess implications for the program to support decisions and improvements
Figure 1: Results expected of the Clean Water Act
impaired waters program
Environmental Outcomes:
^•more recovered waters
^•more incremental progress on recoveries
^•minimal new impairment rates
^•optimized timing to maintain aquatic resources
Programmatic Features:
^•adequate program milestones and tracking
*• restoration partners
^•documentation of impairments and recovery cases
^•efficient program spending
Explanatory Insights:
> scientific explanations of recoveries
^•plausible links of outcomes to CWA/TMDLs
Figure 2: Three types of results measures
Environmental response measures: changes in
waterbody condition; environmental outcomes.
Example: # of waters with fully implemented TMDLs in
State X showing improvement after two years
Programmatic progress measures: work completed
in successive stages of the TMDL program process.
Example: % of Region A's TMDLs with Implementation
Plans and NPDES Permits that implement the TMDL
Explanatory measures: watershed traits or other
factors that may influence the observed environmental
change.
Example: % of improved or restored waters with active
watershed organizations and a watershed plan
The TMDL Program Results Analysis Project is carrying out new results assessments from existing EPA
and other databases while also integrating with existing EPA activities that track results. Although the EPA
Strategic Plan officially is the source for water program tracking measures (www.epa.qov/water/waterplan),
these general measures are at the national scale and mostly address broadly grouped programs (e.g.,
overall surface water protection programs). The TMDL Program Results Analysis Project complements the
Strategic Plan by focusing more specifically on the TMDL program's role (see Fig. 3) in the impaired waters
program, and investigating results patterns at regional, statewide and local scales. In this manner, the
project has been able to utilize more diverse data at less expense in the following activity areas (over):
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Figure 3: The Clean Water Act's impaired waters program pipeline is a simplified graphical representation of how
impaired waters are restored in a step sequence involving TMDLs and other program actions. TMDL program
results analysis has addressed all these stages in order to better understand TMDL results in a broader context.
Impaired
waters
Listing results analysis outputs
>• Overview of303(d) Listing (2009
fact sheet)
> Progress on Impaired Waters
Listing and Reporting (2009 fact
sheet)
^- Report of the Working Group on
TMDL/Permit Data Systems
Linkages (2008 report)
^- National TMDL Tracking System
Data Check Spreadsheet (quarterly)
^- National map of watersheds of
the 2002 baseline impaired waters
list (2007 national CIS dataset)
Planning results analysis outputs
^- Developing Effective Nonpoint
TMDLs: An Evaluation of the TMDL
Process (2007 report)
^- National map of waters with TMDLs
(2007 national CIS dataset)
*• The 100 TMDLs Study (2006
analysis and fact sheet)
Implementation results analysis
outputs
^- Statistical analysis of TMDL
Implementation rates in EPA
Region 5 (2009 report)
>• TMDL Implementation Tracking
Needs Assessment (2008 EPA
regional report)
>• Implementing TMDLs:
Understanding and Fostering
Successful Results (2008 report)
^- TMDL Implementation:
Lessons Learned (2007 published
paper)
>• TMDL and Watershed Planning
Technical Support Clearinghouse
and Website (2006-08 grant)
>• TMDL Implementation:
Characteristics of Successful
Projects (2006 report)
Restored
waters
Listing I Planning I Implementing I Improving I Recovery
Recovery results analysis outputs
>• A Comparative Method for Setting
Restoration Priorities Among Impaired
Waters (est. 2009 published paper)
^- States Working Group on
Environmental Results and Innovation
(2007-2009 grant)
>• Restoration and Recovery
Literature Database (2008 database)
>• Recovery Potential Project (2008
fact sheet)
^- Recovery potential indicators and
reference sheets (2008 support data)
^- Recovery potential assessments
(2005-2008 analyses)
^- Applying Results Findings: the
Recovery Potential Project (2007
published paper)
Incremental improvement results
analysis outputs
>• Evaluating options for documenting
incremental improvement of impaired
waters under the TMDL program (2008
report)
>• Summary of 2007 TMDL/Monitoring
National Workshop Session
on Program Effectiveness (2007 report,)
Additional overview and synthesis products from this project include
TMDL Program Results Analysis Website at http://www.epa.gov/owow/tmdl/results/
Results Analysis Fact Sheet 1 (Overview) and 2 (Impaired Waters Program Pipeline)
The TMDL Program Results Analysis Project: Matching Results Measures With Program
Expectations (2006 white paper)
Results Analysis Measures and Methods Report (2006 report)
WEFTMDL2007. Introspection at EPA: Evaluating TMDL Program Results (six paper session,)
The TMDL Program Results Analysis Project (2008 publication in WaterPractice Journal)
For more information, contact the TMDL Program Results Analysis Project Leader (Doug Norton, Watershed
Branch norton.douglas@epa.gov)
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